620. Why Don’t Running Backs Get Paid Anymore?

Imagine being one of the best running backs in the NFL, setting a record for your new team, and watching your former club pay a struggling quarterback ten times your salary. This is the stark economic reality for today’s star running backs, a position that has plummeted from being among the league’s highest-paid to ranking 15th, just above kickers. The episode dives into the perfect storm of analytics, rule changes, and labor agreements that devalued the once-revered role, transforming football’s most iconic ball carriers into replaceable parts in a pass-first league.

The decline isn’t due to a lack of talent. Data shows the physical specs of running backs entering the league haven’t changed; they are as fast and explosive as ever. The shift is purely a demand problem, driven by an analytics revolution that mathematically proved the superior value of a passing play over a running play. When former Navy pilot and data scientist Brian Burke built his expected-points model in 2008, the conclusion was inescapable: passing was far more efficient. This insight slowly permeated the league, coinciding with NFL rule changes deliberately designed to make passing easier and more exciting to fuel the sport’s growth into a $20 billion entertainment business.

Compounding this strategic shift was a critical change in the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). The rookie wage scale and a standard five-year team control period meant that by the time a running back earned the right to negotiate a major second contract, he was often 27 years old—an age at which executives perceive the position to be in decline due to accumulated physical toll. This system traps top backs, making them prove their elite value on cost-controlled rookie deals only to be deemed “worn out” when it’s time to get paid.

The conversation reveals a profound tension between cold economic logic and emotional attachment to the game’s history. While economists like Roland Fryer acknowledge the market is rationally allocating resources away from running backs, the football fan in him—and in many listeners—laments the loss of a cultural icon. The episode ends on a note of cyclical hope, pointing to recent Super Bowl success driven by star runners, but the overarching lesson is that in a league optimized for passing, the running back’s fate is ultimately tied to an offensive line and a system, not individual stardom.

Surprising Insights

• The analytics proving the overwhelming superiority of passing over running were partly pioneered by a former F-18 Navy pilot who applied military strategy and game theory to football.
• The physical “supply” of running backs hasn’t diminished; combine data shows entrants are as athletic as ever. Their devaluation is purely a result of changed strategic demand.
• The 2011 CBA’s five-year team control clause is a major, often overlooked culprit. It delays free agency until most backs are at an age where teams assume they’re past their prime.
• A running back’s record-breaking performance can actually hurt his market value, as teams may cite the heavy workload as evidence he is now “worn down.”
• Some agents now actively advise young athletes to avoid the running back position altogether, suggesting they become kickers or long snappers for longer, safer careers.

Practical Takeaways

• For young athletes: If you have the skills, consider training for a “passing game” position like wide receiver or tight end, or even quarterback, which the market values more highly. Specialists like kickers also have remarkable job security.
• For running backs entering the league: Understand that your prime earning years are your first five. Financially plan as if your career could be short, and maximize your value by becoming a proficient pass-catcher and blocker, not just a runner.
• For team builders: Invest in a strong offensive line before splurging on a star running back. A great line makes any competent back look good, while even the best back will struggle behind a weak one.
• For fans understanding the game: Recognize that a successful run play is a minor miracle requiring perfect execution from 8 or 9 other players. The running back often gets the glory, but the system creates the opportunity.
• For negotiators and agents: The current system is stacked against running backs. Collective action or lobbying for CBA adjustments (like shorter rookie contracts for the position) might be more effective than individual holdouts.