#856: Jim Collins — What to Make of a Life and How to Maximize Your Return on Luck

Jim Collins, at 68, finds himself with more energy and creative fire than he had in his thirties, attributing this not to a simple biological set point but to a fundamental shift in the source of his drive. His journey into the research for his new book, What to Make of a Life, led him away from his initial question of “self-renewal” and toward a more profound inquiry into how people navigate major life transitions, which he terms “cliffs,” and the disorienting periods of “fog” that often follow. Through studying matched pairs of individuals who faced similar dramatic turning points, Collins uncovered patterns of how people discover their intrinsic “encodings”—durable inner capacities awaiting activation—and learn to trust them, often leading to their most impactful work later in life.

A central theme is the distinction between “encodings” and learned strengths. Encodings are innate, deep-seated capacities that feel effortless and compelling when activated, whereas strengths can be developed in areas where one may not be inherently encoded. Collins argues that a fulfilling and energetic life comes from getting “in frame” with these encodings, whether in one’s own work or by placing team members in roles that align with their innate wiring. He shares how this focus has transformed his leadership, shifting his energy from frustration with what people aren’t to awe and gratitude for what they are when in the right seat.

The conversation also delves into the mechanics of a productive life, from Collins’s ritualistic “boot up sequence” with his own travel coffee kit to his disciplined “punch card” system for managing commitments. This systematic approach protects his most valuable asset: time for deep, creative work. Furthermore, he expands on the concept of “return on luck,” emphasizing that while luck events (good, bad, or zeitgeist) are distributed randomly, the critical differentiator for a remarkable life is the ability to recognize a “Natalie moment”—a time that demands an unequal response—and to marshal extraordinary focus to capitalize on it or to resiliently rebound from setbacks.

Surprising Insights

• Energy can increase with age: Contrary to the narrative of inevitable decline, Collins and many of his research subjects found they had more energy, clarity, and creative output in their later decades (50s, 60s, 70s+) than in their peak productive years.
• “Encodings” are not singular: You are not encoded for just “one true calling.” Individuals possess a vast, undiscovered constellation of encodings, and a fulfilling life can be built by finding and trusting any significant set of them, which can sometimes be radically different across different life chapters (e.g., athlete to Supreme Court justice).
• Fog is a feature, not a bug: Extended periods of confusion, disorientation, and lack of direction (“fog”) are a universal experience, even for the highest achievers. They are not a sign of failure but often a necessary phase, especially following a major life cliff.
• Return on luck outweighs luck itself: In studying both companies and individuals, Collins found that the distribution of good and bad luck events is often even. What separates outcomes is the skill and intensity applied to capitalize on good luck or to recover and learn from bad luck—the “return on luck.”
• Self-renewal isn’t the goal: The people who achieved what looked like continuous self-renewal weren’t aiming for it. It was a byproduct of them continually engaging with the core question, “What to make of a life?” especially after being forced to reconsider it by cliff events.

Practical Takeaways

• Conduct a “punch card” audit: Treat your time and commitments like a limited punch card that can’t be replenished. Before saying yes to any new opportunity, ask if it’s worthy of one of your few remaining punches, ensuring you guard time for your most encoding-aligned work.
• Look for encodings, not just competencies: In yourself and your team, shift focus from “what are they good at?” to “what activities make them feel effortless, engaged, and intrinsically motivated?” Place people (including yourself) in roles that light up these encodings.
• Design a personal “boot up sequence:** Create a simple, replicable ritual to start your day, especially for deep work. This could be a specific time, a caffeine routine, or a quiet practice that signals to your brain it’s time to focus, regardless of your environment.
• Normalize and navigate the fog: When you hit a period of confusion or lack of direction, don’t panic. Understand it’s a common phase. Use “simplex stepping”—taking small, experimental steps to gather data and feel your way forward, rather than forcing one giant, perfect leap.
• Practice identifying “Natalie moments”: Train yourself to recognize when a luck event (a chance meeting, an unexpected opportunity, or even a setback) is significant and demands an outsized response. Be prepared to go “all in” during these unique windows of time.