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0:00:36 Will the VP debate move the needle in what’s shaping up to be a neck-and-neck election?
0:00:40 You never know in advance what will be the thing that matters and the thing that doesn’t matter.
0:00:48 But Donald Trump will be almost 80 and J.D. Vance will be one cheeseburger away
0:00:50 from the presidency should they win.
0:00:56 I’m Preet Bharara and this week the Atlantic magazine’s David Frum joins me on my podcast
0:00:59 Stay Tuned with Preet to break down what happened at the debate.
0:01:01 The episode is out now.
0:01:05 Search and follow Stay Tuned with Preet wherever you get your podcasts.
0:01:12 Hi everyone, I’m Brené Brown and I’d love to tell you about a new series that’s launching
0:01:13 on Unlocking Us.
0:01:17 I’m calling it the On My Heart and Mind Podcast series.
0:01:20 It’s going to include conversations with some of my favorite writers on topics ranging from
0:01:25 revolutionary love and gun ownership to menopause and finding joy and grief.
0:01:29 The first episode is available now and I can’t wait for you to hear it.
0:01:32 All new episodes will drop on Wednesdays and you can get them as soon as they’re out by
0:01:40 following Unlocking Us on Apple or wherever you listen to your podcasts.
0:01:41 Welcome to Raging Moderates.
0:01:42 I’m Scott Galloway.
0:01:43 And I’m Jessica Tarlove.
0:01:45 Jess, what’s going on at the five?
0:01:48 What’s going on there?
0:01:54 Well, a lot is going on but what was not going on with me on Friday was I was supposed to
0:01:58 be on the five and I couldn’t go in because I had such a bad allergic reaction to something
0:02:01 that half of my lip swelled up.
0:02:05 Do you remember the movie Hitch with Will Smith where he did the Serenote Bergerac,
0:02:09 like feeding guys good lines to get girls’ thing?
0:02:11 I feel like such an elder millennial that’s like 20 years ago.
0:02:12 Anyway.
0:02:13 What did you have an allergic reaction to?
0:02:14 His face explodes.
0:02:15 No, don’t tell me in case.
0:02:20 Well, I think maybe a lip balm that I used that had papaya in it.
0:02:21 It’s unclear.
0:02:26 But steroids, which is the greatest invention, maybe I guess penicillins better, but steroids
0:02:27 are really good.
0:02:31 But anyway, I sent a picture of my face at 6.30 in the morning to the producer who wrote
0:02:34 back, “We will not be seeing you today.”
0:02:39 But besides that, on the five, we talked about Mark Robinson a lot.
0:02:42 I know we’re going to talk about that later in the episode.
0:02:45 What’s happening generally though with a show like that as a run-up to election?
0:02:48 Is it just like a ratings bonanza and people are all over it?
0:02:50 Is this kind of your suites?
0:02:52 Is this the playoffs for you guys?
0:02:56 It is definitely the playoffs and the ratings still hang around 3 million.
0:03:01 We have a very tried and true audience, but we saw a big spike.
0:03:06 Greg Gottfeld, co-host on the five, had Trump on his show, Gottfeld exclamation point for
0:03:07 the whole hour.
0:03:10 And I think that got like 5 million viewers.
0:03:14 So people are definitely flocking in for election coverage.
0:03:15 Talk about the interview.
0:03:18 What was the least crazy and the craziest things he said?
0:03:23 Honestly, it was very low on the insanity.
0:03:28 I think as he was calm, he was amongst people who like him.
0:03:34 And what was really great for the audience, so Greg’s show, nighttime show is in front
0:03:38 of a live audience, and they didn’t know that Trump was the guest.
0:03:43 So they showed up for a regular episode and thought maybe they’d see Brian Kilmeade who
0:03:47 hosts Fox and Friends, and they got an hour of Donald Trump.
0:03:53 She somehow, a woman, somehow she’s doing better than he did.
0:03:56 But I can’t imagine it can last.
0:04:00 And he talked about everything from all the old shows that he used to do, like going on
0:04:03 Johnny Carson and Howard Stern, to some stuff about the campaign.
0:04:07 And of course, there were things that I would have fact checked.
0:04:12 But he was at his most charming, I would say.
0:04:16 And part of that was driven by a very good friend who’s on the show, Kat Tymph, who’s
0:04:17 a libertarian.
0:04:22 Kat’s actually come on your Prof. G podcast before when she had a book coming out a year
0:04:23 ago.
0:04:24 She has a new book even.
0:04:25 She’s prolific.
0:04:29 But Kat is not naturally partial to Trump.
0:04:32 She doesn’t love his policies.
0:04:38 And he was really clearly focused on getting her to like him and to be comfortable with
0:04:39 him.
0:04:41 And I saw a little bit of a different side of him.
0:04:43 Did it work or was it creepy?
0:04:45 Well, she’s pregnant.
0:04:48 So everything could look a little bit creepier.
0:04:52 You know how weird men are around pregnant women.
0:04:54 But he was on the other side of the set.
0:04:55 So it wasn’t creepy like that.
0:05:01 But you’re just acutely aware of everything when you’re 30 pounds heavier and with child.
0:05:02 What I’ve told–
0:05:03 I didn’t find it creepy.
0:05:04 I thought it was nice.
0:05:08 What I’ve told my boys is that unless you see the head crowning, never reference a woman’s
0:05:09 pregnancy.
0:05:10 Do not mention it.
0:05:14 And also watching the head crown is also frightening in another way.
0:05:15 So that’s a whole other episode.
0:05:16 All right.
0:05:17 Let’s go on to something more cheery.
0:05:21 Let’s talk about the latest polls, a bombshell in the North Carolina governor’s race, and
0:05:26 a surprising trend millionaires opting to rent instead of buy.
0:05:30 We’re six weeks from election day and the polls are starting to pile up.
0:05:35 Over the weekend we got an NBC News poll that showed Harris leading Trump 49 to 44% within
0:05:36 the margin of error.
0:05:37 So I don’t know.
0:05:40 At this point it feels like the polls are, I don’t want to say superfluous, but yeah,
0:05:41 who knows.
0:05:45 It’s a coin flip, though Trump leads on the economy inflation and the border.
0:05:48 Then on Monday, new numbers from the New York Times’ Santa College poll shows that Donald
0:05:51 Trump is doing well across the Sun Belt.
0:05:55 The tightest race is in North Carolina, where Trump leads Harris 49 to 47.
0:05:58 Georgia and Arizona show a slightly wider lead for Trump.
0:06:00 What’s your take on these numbers, Jessica?
0:06:01 You’re a pollster.
0:06:03 You get this stuff.
0:06:04 What can we take from this?
0:06:10 Well, I saw a very funny tweet that said, like, all data people are just going to have to
0:06:15 figure out how to say the same thing differently for the next six weeks, which is, like, this
0:06:20 is a tied race with a slight advantage today in this direction and, like, let me figure
0:06:27 out some forces underneath an undercurrent would probably be a better word for it.
0:06:30 That’ll make me have an interesting TV hit.
0:06:33 So that’s what I’m going to try to do with this.
0:06:40 We should note with the NBC poll what is special about it and a five-point lead is a big deal,
0:06:44 but the last time that they had a national poll, Biden was still the candidate and it
0:06:46 was Trump plus two.
0:06:52 So that just as an encapsulation of how different this race is, something that I was paying
0:06:58 attention to is obviously what’s going on in the swing states, but they had the question
0:07:05 of who represents change and Harris is up nine points on Trump with that.
0:07:08 And that’s something that people say really matters and has been a question in all of
0:07:09 this.
0:07:13 Like, how do you become a change agent if you are the sitting vice president?
0:07:19 And her highest tested statement from the debate was when she said, I’m not Joe Biden.
0:07:23 And clearly people are feeling that and they’re saying, I know what Trump is like.
0:07:25 I know what Biden is like.
0:07:28 This is a new person.
0:07:34 And then she also was 20 points up on who has the better mental and physical capability.
0:07:39 So basically by moving Biden out of the way, now everyone is actually paying attention to
0:07:47 what Donald Trump is actually like and they’re not loving what they’re seeing.
0:07:51 Other big things like the lead on the economy has gone down a ton.
0:07:56 He was over 20 points ahead, it’s now nine points in the CBS poll, he’s only up six points
0:07:57 on the economy.
0:08:02 So for all of this talk of Kamala Harris isn’t really telling people anything, she’s not
0:08:05 answering questions and no one knows what she stands for.
0:08:10 The results seem to indicate that people do know what she stands for.
0:08:14 They know enough to say that she would be within six to 10 points of Donald Trump on
0:08:18 who’s best to manage the economy, which means they probably heard something.
0:08:24 I don’t know, what do you think about the results or say something fancy about a tide
0:08:25 race?
0:08:33 Yeah, it’s really striking to me that there’s such a thing as an undecided voter.
0:08:39 I think there are a few things you could label yourself that out you as more of a village
0:08:43 idiot than at this point being an undecided, let me get this, you’re like, it’s a tossup
0:08:47 for you, you can’t quite figure out, I think anyone who says they’re an undecided voter
0:08:54 at this point is a closeted trumper and is pretending to be thoughtful.
0:08:59 For me at this point, and you know more about politics than I do, at this point it’s all
0:09:00 about turnout.
0:09:04 I just don’t buy that anyone’s undecided that isn’t a village fucking idiot looking
0:09:08 for someone to interview them with a mic in front of them as an undecided.
0:09:11 How could you be undecided at this point?
0:09:16 And also this criticism that she hasn’t done an interview and we don’t know her policies,
0:09:22 she was a senator, she was an attorney general, she was the vice president.
0:09:27 You know that basically she’s center left, she’s more conservative on law and order and
0:09:30 economics issues than most people give her credit for.
0:09:37 On Israel and Gaza, I think people are probably a little less clear on where she stands, but
0:09:41 you’re clear on where Trump stands, okay, you can be clear that he doesn’t mind that
0:09:45 a woman’s bodily autonomy is taken away from her.
0:09:48 But he was for TikTok or against it until he was for it.
0:09:52 He was against tariffs until he was for them.
0:09:57 I have a huge cohort of friends and I don’t want to say respected, but I understand it.
0:10:01 They just think government is ineffective and they just go in and vote for whoever they think
0:10:04 is going to put more money in their pockets in the short run and they think that’s going
0:10:05 to be Donald Trump.
0:10:08 So they go in, they listen to everybody rage about Donald Trump and then they say, “Hold
0:10:12 my beer,” and they go, “Mine occurred,” and then they vote for Trump.
0:10:16 I’m just trying to figure out, do you really think … Well, let me put this forward as
0:10:21 a thesis, where her money will come in right now is the get out the vote part that’s going
0:10:26 to take place over the next eight weeks or whatever it is.
0:10:29 That’s where the money’s going to kick in, I hope, but at this point, it’s not about
0:10:33 undecided voters, it’s about turning out the vote, your thoughts.
0:10:35 Two-parted response.
0:10:38 One requires you to have watched Bill Maher from Friday.
0:10:39 I saw that.
0:10:40 I’m not sure if he …
0:10:41 That was great.
0:10:43 Let’s just grab Brett Stevens.
0:10:45 For the last two weeks, I’ve been going on and on.
0:10:49 I can’t figure out where undecided voters … Where informed undecided voters are.
0:10:53 I’m like, “Who’s the person who has a list on their refrigerator of like, ‘Well, she said
0:10:55 this,'” and he said, “I’m like, ‘Who is this person?'” and then I opened the New York
0:10:57 Times three days ago and it’s you.
0:11:02 Stephanie Rohl says, “I’m trying to figure out who this person is and here you are sitting
0:11:08 next to me with a microphone in front of your face on one of the most salient political
0:11:15 chat shows that’s in business right now telling us you’re definitely not for Trump, but you
0:11:17 just don’t get calm enough.”
0:11:19 You can’t vote for Trump, but you need to know her policies.
0:11:21 I’m like, “Okay, what does that mean, boss?”
0:11:25 But it’s also for a lot of these people who are highly educated and certainly capable
0:11:30 of reading a website, all the policies are there.
0:11:39 If you harbor a fear that she is secretly going to ban fracking on day 112 when there’s
0:11:44 no evidence of that, certainly from how the Biden-Harris administration conducted itself,
0:11:51 or that she secretly hates Jews even though she’s married to one who talks about it constantly,
0:11:58 or that she’s going to fund transgender surgeries for undocumented people who are in prison
0:12:03 as per the ACLU survey that she signed in 2019.
0:12:08 I can’t help you, but I don’t think that’s who Brett Stevens is.
0:12:15 I have someone very close to me, my mentor has a very big successful job in finance and
0:12:20 he’s not going to vote for Donald Trump, but every day sending me things.
0:12:21 Why won’t she answer this?
0:12:22 I need to know this.
0:12:25 I need to know that.
0:12:30 Some of it is just like Stephanie Roll was saying it, like tough noogies.
0:12:33 You’re not going to get it exactly the way that you want it and that doesn’t mean that
0:12:38 she shouldn’t do more and it seems like they really are ramping up and that they needed
0:12:43 that first four to six weeks when she didn’t expect to be the candidate.
0:12:46 That really flies in the face of this whole Grand Coup plan.
0:12:51 Kamala Harris woke up that Sunday and was like, “Holy shit, I could end up being president
0:12:57 of the United States of America on November 5th instead of the vice president, but the
0:13:04 discrepancy and standards to which these two candidates are being held kills me.”
0:13:08 I find that I spend most of my time when you say what’s going on on the five, that’s what’s
0:13:14 going on on the five, that I’m saying over and over, she did this, she said this, you’re
0:13:20 ignoring this and I get it, people are partisans and Trump has done some things that I probably
0:13:26 haven’t given him full due for, like the Abraham Accords, it’s pretty awesome and I was not
0:13:31 as generous about it as I should have been because I don’t like Donald Trump.
0:13:34 He got China right, that’s the other thing I would say.
0:13:37 I think he early recognized the asymmetry and trade between us and China, I would give
0:13:38 him credit for that.
0:13:39 Did he fix it?
0:13:45 Well, he’s the first to call them out, he announced the TikTok ban and then unannounced
0:13:51 it, but he did put in place tariffs that the Biden administration has kept in place.
0:13:55 You’re going to get some shit right and he doesn’t get credit for any of it, she won’t
0:13:59 get credit for anything, she does for her critics.
0:14:04 The thing that I find, these folks saying they need more information, I would argue,
0:14:08 they’re Trumpers and they’re going to vote for Trump, I just don’t.
0:14:14 Anyone saying that in my view is either closeted to Trump voter and they want to pretend there’s
0:14:21 a legitimate reason not to vote for her or it’s referred anger and it’s anger around,
0:14:26 and I have a little bit of this, she was coronated, there wasn’t a competition and she still
0:14:32 sort of in some ways engages to compete in terms of going out and really meeting with
0:14:35 a ton of reporters and doing a bunch of interviews.
0:14:41 Having said that, it’s a little bit unfair to levy this indictment or this accusation
0:14:47 that she won’t let her policies, she won’t come out when she’s the one who is challenging
0:14:53 him to another debate and he won’t show up for that.
0:14:57 Yeah, I don’t believe that they’re all closeted Trumpers.
0:15:04 I think that your anger thesis is probably more what’s going on here, that people are
0:15:11 pissed off about the process, that frankly they’re angry that Biden continued on.
0:15:16 If he had dropped out a year earlier and we had a mini primary and everyone saw essentially
0:15:22 what was on display at the DNC, all of this talent, they saw Gretchen Whitmer and Wes
0:15:29 Moore and Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris and whoever else was going
0:15:36 to throw their hat in the ring and Josh Pirro of course, then we might have A in their mind
0:15:39 had a stronger candidate if they don’t think Kamala would have emerged from that.
0:15:44 I actually think there’s a pretty decent likelihood that she could have come out the victor of
0:15:49 a mini primary, but we got to a point where there was just not enough time to do it and
0:15:57 I think when politicians say something that just circumvents the truth and it feels to
0:16:02 you and we’re not politicians trying to hang on to our seats or anything like that, but
0:16:05 it feels like one of those moments where you just say, “Just tell me the honest thing.
0:16:06 It really wouldn’t bother me.”
0:16:10 Stop saying there was an open competition, no one else threw their hat in the ring.
0:16:11 There wasn’t an open competition.
0:16:16 I happened to be fine with it and perfectly comfortable with what happened because I do
0:16:23 think Kamala was on the ticket and so the people were saying, “I’m voting for an 81-year-old
0:16:27 guy who is unlikely to finish his term anyway so I have to be comfortable with the Kamala
0:16:28 Harris presidency.”
0:16:33 But like when Pelosi says, “Anyone could have thrown their hat in,” obviously not.
0:16:37 I’m not saying that you called them up and said, “Don’t you dare,” but you weren’t welcoming
0:16:38 it.
0:16:44 We’ll be right back.
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0:18:01 I have something that’s not in the script.
0:18:05 I would just love to get your reactions to because we were so busy a pivot.
0:18:10 We didn’t bring it up, which is actually kind of convenient given that it’s a Vox property.
0:18:14 But I’m curious to get your thoughts, if any, on a story that’s kind of coming on around
0:18:20 Olivia Nozzi and RFK Jr. and this “digital relationship.”
0:18:24 I don’t even know how to describe it, but I had a lot of thoughts about it and I tweeted
0:18:25 about it or I threaded about it.
0:18:28 And I got some what I thought was really intelligent pushback, but I’m curious what
0:18:30 you think of the whole situation.
0:18:38 Well, what we know so far is that Olivia Nozzi, who is a 31-year-old star campaign reporter
0:18:43 at New York Magazine, had written about RFK Jr.
0:18:44 Gotten to know him through that.
0:18:47 She covered the presidential race for New York Magazine, right?
0:18:53 In general, yes, but she had done a piece on him and she had also written what is widely
0:19:00 regarded as the most consequential piece in putting the vinyl nail in Biden’s coffin.
0:19:05 Basically saying that every Democrat in Washington thinks he can’t do this and it’s not just
0:19:11 voters that are uneasy, but there’s this whisper campaign and Biden should be exiting
0:19:12 stage left.
0:19:16 And I think that came out July 4th or July 5th, something like that.
0:19:21 And now that it has been revealed that she was having a digital affair, which is rumored
0:19:28 to include racy photos, very demure of her that she was having to.
0:19:29 The word “digital” freaked me out.
0:19:32 I’m like, does that mean she sticks her finger up as ass during sex?
0:19:33 Like I didn’t know what “digital” meant.
0:19:35 So it’s sexting in photos?
0:19:37 What does it mean?
0:19:39 It’s on your device.
0:19:46 As far as we know, which is different for RFK Jr., who usually engages in the actual
0:19:53 digital, goes analog, what is it, 37 times that he cheated on his wife that he detailed
0:19:56 in that horrific diary that eventually led to her killing herself.
0:19:59 And she referenced it in her suicide note.
0:20:02 Yeah, but he said she took it back.
0:20:03 You didn’t hear that part?
0:20:08 She wasn’t mad at all, very happy with how things turned out.
0:20:15 So part of the backstory that’s also interesting to this, at least from the gossip standpoint,
0:20:21 is that Olivia Nuzzi is engaged to Ryan Liza, who is also a DC politics reporter.
0:20:30 He writes playbook now for Politico, and he left his wife for Nuzzi 20 years, his junior.
0:20:37 And so there was a lot of online, the karma of you leave your wife for someone 20 years
0:20:43 younger and then she leaves you for a 70 year old, 70 years older than you.
0:20:49 Yes, a 70 year old Kennedy who has a brain worm, and it’s just not your average Kennedy
0:20:50 bear.
0:20:51 That was good.
0:20:55 I just want to highlight that was good.
0:20:56 I’m sorry.
0:20:57 Go ahead.
0:20:58 Thank you.
0:21:04 It doesn’t feel ethically sound that she continued to cover the campaign like this.
0:21:09 And the story that’s coming out of RFK Jr.’s camp doesn’t seem fully believable that she
0:21:15 basically stalked him and he wasn’t interested because this guy is a dog and he’s been interested
0:21:22 in everybody that’s been interested in him over the years, but people are really, they’re
0:21:24 all over the place on this.
0:21:29 People defending her saying, “We all make mistakes too,” like, “Are you f-ing kidding
0:21:30 me?”
0:21:35 That you went on and continued to cover this race, but I want to hear what you threaded
0:21:38 and what the thoughtful responses were.
0:21:44 So when I first saw this, I think it was a little bit triggered because the Clintons
0:21:50 were sort of my heroes, and as I learned more about what went down with Monica Lewinsky,
0:21:54 I just felt, I literally felt they didn’t ruin her life because she has a nice life.
0:21:59 I’ve become sort of like Twitter-friendly with her, but they basically, it felt like
0:22:06 such an abuse of power from him and then them collectively kind of indicting her and disparaging.
0:22:14 I just, it just broke my heart the way they treated her, and this woman, Cara Swisher,
0:22:17 actually did this fantastic interview with her, and she said, “What would your life have
0:22:18 been like?
0:22:21 Imagine had this not happened,” and she said, “Well,” and she’s obviously a very impressive
0:22:22 young woman.
0:22:24 I wanted to go get a PhD by this point.
0:22:28 I thought it would have been married, maybe a couple of kids, maybe working in policy,
0:22:31 and you just feel your heart breaking because can you imagine dating?
0:22:36 Can you imagine getting a job when you’re Monica Lewinsky in your 20s and 30s?
0:22:40 And so I was a little bit triggered by this story because if you pulled up, if you typed
0:22:45 an RFK that morning, there were 10 stories come up with 10 buttons or the pictures, whatever
0:22:50 you call it, and eight of them were a picture of her.
0:22:56 One was a picture of her and him, and the 10th was of her former fiance.
0:23:02 And I thought, okay, if it had come out that Vice President Harris or Secretary Clinton
0:23:07 we’re having a, quote unquote, “digital affair” with a guy, it wouldn’t be pictures of the
0:23:08 guy.
0:23:14 I thought the reflexive, the automatic reflexive reaction of media is to slut shame.
0:23:17 And this was an easy one from her standpoint.
0:23:21 She should be fired in an ethical lapse in journalism.
0:23:24 You’re not supposed to have any sort of relationship like that with people you’re covering on something
0:23:26 as important as presidential politics.
0:23:29 You sit her down and say, “You fucked up, you’re fired.”
0:23:32 And people are fired for a lot less.
0:23:35 She’s trying to maintain a career as a top-level journalist.
0:23:38 I think she’s so talented that she’ll recover from it and probably move on.
0:23:43 I don’t think this is anything like the drama of the Lewinsky-Clinton scandal.
0:23:49 But he, at the age of 70, is trying to convince us that he should get the nuclear codes.
0:23:51 And yet the story wasn’t at all about him.
0:23:55 And now he is framing, I can see what their campaign is doing, they’re trying to frame
0:24:01 her as like a glen-close, boiled-arabbit person that was so drawn to him because his charms.
0:24:05 And so I came out and said, “This story really shouldn’t be about her, it should be about
0:24:07 him.”
0:24:10 And Julie Heimann, who’s a great reporter at Yahoo!
0:24:13 I actually met her at Bloomberg, and I don’t think I’m speaking out of school because I
0:24:20 think she was right, wrote me and said, “Scott, this is about journalistic ethics and you’re
0:24:25 taking away her agency, just portraying her as this foe-y little dawn, this foe-y little
0:24:31 foe-y little foe, they can’t resist the charms of an older Kennedy.”
0:24:37 But I found the media’s reaction really interesting, that they were very focused on her, and maybe
0:24:45 that’s because they’re like, “Okay, this guy’s a weirdo, so we expect this from him.”
0:24:52 But I found it really weird that the media immediately went to, this was her fault, and
0:24:55 the story was all about her.
0:24:58 It felt like slut-shaming to me.
0:25:05 It felt like none of the lessons of the Me Too era were being remembered at all.
0:25:10 When people in positions of power take advantage of them, and there is an imbalance, there’s
0:25:16 an age imbalance, there’s a power imbalance, RFK Jr. has been through worse than getting
0:25:17 some bad press.
0:25:21 That’s the worst that Olivia Nuzzy could do to him.
0:25:26 You can’t get worse than dumping a dead bear cub in Central Park or the whale that he hacked
0:25:31 the head off of, that he’s being charged like 37 grand for letting the blood and guts leak
0:25:35 on his kids or whatever he was doing in that station wagon.
0:25:42 I did find that to be absent in it, and I said to my husband that it bothers me about
0:25:47 myself that I don’t know definitively how I feel about this.
0:25:53 I know that there was a breach in ethics, and I know that that matters a lot.
0:26:00 I get paranoid when I even say something on air and don’t disclose that I know the person
0:26:08 or come across the person at a party or whatever it is, let alone I’m going to go out and write,
0:26:12 like I was saying, the seminal piece about Biden’s fitness for office.
0:26:19 When I’m sending photos of myself to a guy who also wants that job, now no one took it
0:26:24 seriously that he was going to get that job, and it looks like his effect is hopefully
0:26:28 going to be close to nil now that he is not technically in the race anymore, though he’s
0:26:32 still going to be on some ballots, but is on Team Trump vying for the health secretary
0:26:33 position.
0:26:40 But I think you’re right that she will have a future somewhere, and you see that people
0:26:45 on the right specifically defending her a lot more than people on the left.
0:26:46 She’ll end up at free press.
0:26:47 Is that what it’s called?
0:26:49 Yeah, the Barry Weiss outfit.
0:26:50 Yeah.
0:26:51 I bet she’ll end up there.
0:26:52 She’s very talented.
0:26:54 Well, that would be a great landing for her.
0:26:56 That’s not even what I was envisioning.
0:26:57 No, she’s a talent.
0:26:59 She’s a real talent, I think.
0:27:00 Yeah.
0:27:01 Anyways, we’ll see.
0:27:03 So anyways, thanks for the digression.
0:27:05 Let’s get back to the polls.
0:27:09 What do you think the candidates can do if you’re advising them?
0:27:14 What can they do to shore up key battleground states at this point?
0:27:19 Well, I think showing up matters, and they are both showing up places that they need
0:27:23 to, Kamala and Tim Walls, more than Trump is.
0:27:27 JD Vance has been out there a ton, but there was a graph and infographic floating around
0:27:33 about how many fewer rallies Trump is doing, certainly from 2016, when it was breakneck
0:27:34 pace.
0:27:38 You know, it just was unstoppable how many he was doing.
0:27:43 And then obviously it went down in 2020, but that this is really like a whimper.
0:27:49 But something that I saw and that popped out to me in the numbers that show what Kamala
0:27:55 can do or continue to do is that she’s moving back to the right levels with black and Latino
0:27:58 voters, which was a real soft spot.
0:28:05 And it seems like with Latino voters specifically that this message about border security and
0:28:09 also things like home ownership is something that’s really resonating with them, like talking
0:28:12 to them not as a minority group.
0:28:17 And I noticed it’s something that youth think about a lot, that people should stop presenting
0:28:24 themselves as a certain type of person and just as an American, and she doesn’t talk
0:28:28 about her identity, she doesn’t say black Southeast Asian, et cetera.
0:28:34 She’s just going for it as someone with the same interests and needs and desires as everyone
0:28:35 else.
0:28:41 And I think that that is the way forward for anyone to be able to win this election.
0:28:42 What do you think about that?
0:28:44 Yeah, I think I like that.
0:28:46 I think that’s solid.
0:28:51 What’s interesting is the data I’ve seen says that inflation remains voters’ most important
0:28:52 issue.
0:28:58 And it sounds like that’s the issue that is probably most up for grabs, I would argue.
0:29:03 And what’s interesting is, and again, their perception is their reality.
0:29:08 People see him as a businessman, lower interest rates during his tenure.
0:29:12 They think he’s just, they reflexively think he’d be better on the economy.
0:29:15 I think she’s made some real missteps around things like price controls.
0:29:19 I don’t think that makes any sense, a wealth tax.
0:29:22 We talked a little bit about that, that doesn’t make any sense for me.
0:29:26 But at the same time, his proposal is around tariffs and being as anti-immigration as he’s
0:29:30 claiming, there’s a few things that could be more inflationary.
0:29:37 So I don’t know, if I were her, I would do a lot around inflation right now, saying we
0:29:41 need to break up these big companies, we’ll bring prices down.
0:29:43 She’s talked about growth.
0:29:45 What is the growth mindset around the economy?
0:29:49 How do we bring specifically what programs am I going to put in place to bring inflation
0:29:51 down that economists would sign off of?
0:29:57 Because when she says price controls, all economists say is, okay, so I remember right
0:30:03 out of college, my buddy Lee Lotus said, we should rent in Santa Monica because we can
0:30:04 get rent control.
0:30:05 And I’m like, yeah, but those things never come up.
0:30:09 He’s like, yeah, but we’re two white yuppies, so we’ll have an easier time.
0:30:10 And I said, why is that?
0:30:16 Well, all the people who own apartments in Santa Monica, because they’re rent controlled,
0:30:21 they get 50 applicants and they always end up picking young white professionals.
0:30:24 And I thought, okay, that’s what happens when you have price controls.
0:30:26 I mean, rent control just doesn’t work.
0:30:27 Price controls just don’t work.
0:30:30 If there’s gouging during a hurricane, I get it.
0:30:34 But the notion that you’re going to tell a marketplace, you’re going to put a cap on
0:30:37 prices, that to me just doesn’t work.
0:30:39 I thought that made, didn’t make any sense.
0:30:42 But I would, she has some very smart economic policy advisors.
0:30:47 I would come up with some sort of acronym for the three things she’s going to do to ensure
0:30:49 inflation goes to its target level.
0:30:54 Or maybe she just talks about the fact that, hey, I don’t know if anyone’s noticed, but
0:30:57 inflation, cornflation is at 3.3, but inflation overall, inflation is at 2.5.
0:30:59 The target is two.
0:31:01 We’ve brought down inflation faster than anyone.
0:31:02 Maybe they spend that on ads.
0:31:06 I don’t watch TV or ad supported TV, so I don’t know if she’s running ads, but it seems
0:31:09 like inflation is one of the last things.
0:31:10 Tons of them.
0:31:11 Tons of them.
0:31:12 And what are they focused on?
0:31:15 Kamala Harris has spent decades fighting violent crime.
0:31:20 As vice president, she backed the toughest border control bill in decades.
0:31:22 Fixing the border is tough.
0:31:24 So is Kamala Harris.
0:31:31 A lot of it has been autobiographical because she still is also introducing herself.
0:31:35 But they are getting into more policy specific stuff.
0:31:40 And it’s a lot about the small business policies and encouraging that.
0:31:42 And I think she has some great surrogates, like, I love them.
0:31:45 Mark Cuban is out there and he’s just going everywhere.
0:31:46 Right?
0:31:50 Like, I’ll talk to you on a podcast, I’ll talk to you on SquawkBox.
0:31:53 And I’m going to disagree with Kamala about certain things, but I’m going to tell you
0:31:56 why NetNet, she’s going to be better for your pocketbook.
0:32:01 And on the price controls part, she never actually said price control.
0:32:06 But she is trying to represent, and I get it that maybe this hasn’t been done effectively,
0:32:08 is essentially antitrust enforcement.
0:32:12 And you even saw after she started talking about it that some of the companies that she
0:32:16 had mentioned, like the Walmarts of the World, the Kroger’s, they dropped their prices.
0:32:20 That there were, they were being artificially inflated because they could get away with
0:32:21 it.
0:32:22 Right?
0:32:25 They were basically pretending that the supply chain was still as shitty as it was in 2021,
0:32:27 which is obviously not the case.
0:32:32 And as people start to notice in their regular lives that maybe it doesn’t cost so much
0:32:36 to fill up their tank, or maybe chicken is costing less when they go to buy dinner for
0:32:41 their family, that that is naturally warming them to Kamala Harris.
0:32:48 And then Trump isn’t doing the work to be able to prove the case that he would be better
0:32:50 if he were the one steering the economy right now.
0:32:55 So that’s how I see it in a best case scenario for her on the inflation issue.
0:32:59 So according to this poll, the things that he beats around specifically, securing the
0:33:03 border and controlling immigration, he beats her by a whopping 21 points on dealing with
0:33:04 the economy.
0:33:09 He’s up by nine, dealing with inflation and the cost of living up by eight, dealing with
0:33:13 crime and violence up by six, serving as commander-in-chief.
0:33:16 She beats him by one, getting the country headed in the right direction.
0:33:20 She beats him by four, being competent and effective.
0:33:21 She beats him by five.
0:33:27 It’s funny, I would think being competent and effective would be the halo around all
0:33:28 of this.
0:33:31 Anyways, we’ll be back after a quick break to discuss the race for governor in North
0:33:34 Carolina and an interesting trend in the housing market.
0:33:35 Stay with us.
0:33:40 All right, Jess, we’re going to shift gears here.
0:33:45 The race for governor in North Carolina exploded with a story that could have national repercussions.
0:33:50 Mark Robinson, the GOP front runner, is in hot water after past common service where he
0:33:53 compared himself to a black Nazi.
0:33:55 That’s not even the most shocking part.
0:34:01 There are also disturbing revelations about his activity on an online porn forum.
0:34:05 Jessica, do you think this is more gossip than tangible?
0:34:07 Do you think this has any impact?
0:34:14 Well, his basically his whole staff quit, so yeah, I think it does have an impact.
0:34:19 He tried to say that it was AI and this was all fake, but I don’t think everyone quits.
0:34:22 Oh, no, I mean an impact on the presidential race, not on Robinson.
0:34:25 I think he’s toast or I don’t know if he’s toast.
0:34:26 Oh, yeah.
0:34:31 Well, he was kind of toasty, at least before this happened, but I do think that it has
0:34:38 an impact on the race and that these candidates like the Doug Masturianos of the world and
0:34:42 there was someone who pointed out, which is funny, that if you’re an A.G. named Josh,
0:34:44 just stay in line.
0:34:49 So this is Josh Stein in North Carolina and it was Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania who ended
0:34:58 up running against these kind of Trumpy lunatics, but I wonder in a year like this with so many
0:35:06 important issues on the table, how much split ticket voting is actually going to happen.
0:35:12 And the Harris campaign has been really focused on North Carolina anyway, obviously more so
0:35:17 at this point, but what do you think the likelihood is that people are going to walk into that
0:35:22 booth and say, you know, Josh Stein for sure, obviously we can’t have Mark Robinson, but
0:35:24 Trump in North Carolina.
0:35:27 I mean, in Georgia, they do this all the time, right?
0:35:33 They sit with two Democratic senators and they love Brian Kemp and a lot of conservatives.
0:35:39 Yeah, I think as I just hear you speak about it, I wonder if it cements or buttresses a
0:35:46 very negative brand association of Trump-Harris that they’re weird, that this guy he’s actively
0:35:51 advocated for is kind of all caps weird, uncomfortable weird.
0:35:56 And that this is sort of, you know, this is kind of case in point or par for the course,
0:36:00 if you will, for the kind of people that Trump and Vance endorse.
0:36:04 And then on top of this, North Carolina is in play, right?
0:36:07 So maybe it is bigger.
0:36:10 And as you pointed out, this might affect down ballot races in a key state like North
0:36:11 Carolina.
0:36:12 Yeah.
0:36:17 I mean, that’s the hope with something like this, and clearly, you know, that opposition
0:36:21 research didn’t just appear out of nowhere on that day, that was the last day that you
0:36:23 could have gotten his name off the ballot.
0:36:27 So the Democrats waited until exactly the right moment.
0:36:34 I’m just trying to figure out what is the thought process where you decide to post a
0:36:36 comment on a porn site?
0:36:42 I mean, the black Nazi stuff, okay, I don’t get it, but even before that, I know I’m going
0:36:45 to comment on a porn site.
0:36:51 I mean, should that person be in a position of civic responsibility?
0:36:52 No.
0:36:55 So this is what I wanted to ask you about.
0:36:56 So it’s not just like…
0:36:58 As a commenter on porn sites?
0:36:59 Yeah.
0:37:03 As a frequent guest on New Dapark for myself.
0:37:07 But this was, you know, over many years, and it included the fact that he’s a peeping Tom.
0:37:12 Like, he’s talking about fantasizing about the fact that he used to watch women in public
0:37:15 gym showers and that he still fantasizes about it.
0:37:18 So this is my question.
0:37:24 If there was a conversation about Joe Biden being fit to serve six more months in his
0:37:29 job when he dropped out, how is there not a conversation that Mark Robinson should be
0:37:31 gone today?
0:37:39 That somebody who did that and who harbors these kinds of beliefs that he has espoused
0:37:47 even in this campaign about women, about reproductive rights, about race, tensions.
0:37:50 Like why is Mark Robinson still allowed to sit around?
0:37:55 But we had to hear about, you know, Joe Biden can only sit on the beach in Delaware and
0:37:57 can’t walk up three stairs.
0:38:04 I think America has decided that they’d rather have a pervert than someone old and feeble.
0:38:09 And that is, to a certain extent, Donald Trump and Elon Musk, and just, I don’t want to say
0:38:15 they’ve normalized weirdness around children and women and sex, but what have we not been
0:38:16 exposed to?
0:38:19 I mean, isn’t everyone just sort of like, “I’ve heard it.
0:38:20 I’ve seen it.
0:38:21 I don’t care.
0:38:22 I don’t.”
0:38:26 And if the Christian evangelicals will vote for somebody who has been married, you know,
0:38:32 has five kids by three women and has been accused of sexual assault by 28 women, okay,
0:38:35 whatever, this guy’s commented on a porn site.
0:38:38 I really don’t care.
0:38:40 What is unforgivable?
0:38:46 I think correctly, America, and I’ve been saying this for a year and was called an agist and
0:38:47 that’s accurate.
0:38:48 I’m an agist and so is biology.
0:38:54 Let me just say, if it was Biden and Trump, I think hands down the nation would have decided
0:38:59 they’d rather have someone guilty of sexual abuse than an old, feeble man who came across
0:39:03 as just like kind of not there.
0:39:07 So I don’t, I think America has decided that they’ll tolerate that.
0:39:08 Yeah.
0:39:15 I mean, aging is rough for everybody, but the way in which you age is actually so much
0:39:21 more important in terms of the impact that it has on your life when you look at how people
0:39:22 are perceiving you.
0:39:26 You know, you would think that Biden was 95 and that Trump was 75.
0:39:27 You got to give it to Trump.
0:39:31 Trump just looked more robust and it’s weird, just people look at me and even though I’m
0:39:33 50, they can’t believe it.
0:39:34 They just can’t believe it.
0:39:35 All right.
0:39:36 Let’s move on.
0:39:37 No.
0:39:38 Let’s move on.
0:39:39 Yes.
0:39:40 Yes.
0:39:42 Let’s talk about something a little different, but just as crucial, the housing crisis, there’s
0:39:47 a growing trend that’s kind of flying under the radar and that’s that wealthy people and
0:39:51 the poor are moving away from home ownership or recent piece in the Wall Street Journal highlighted
0:39:55 how even millionaires are renting their homes instead of buying them.
0:39:56 This is interesting.
0:40:00 Like this says about the state of the housing market.
0:40:01 That is very bad.
0:40:04 That’s the nuance you get here at Raging Water Rights.
0:40:05 Is that it?
0:40:06 Am I a business professor?
0:40:07 That’s it.
0:40:08 Yeah.
0:40:09 That’s why everyone comes to the podcast.
0:40:10 That’s it.
0:40:11 No.
0:40:13 I think that there is, if I could do, you know that emoji with like the two hands holding
0:40:19 each other when like two groups that you don’t think belong together find common cause.
0:40:24 That’s the housing market right now for people who have a few hundred thousand dollars to
0:40:28 be able to buy a home and people who have, you know, three to five million dollars to
0:40:29 find a home.
0:40:32 And I think part of it is a testament to how good the market is, that if you have your
0:40:39 money, if your down payment is doing the work in a fund for you, that that’s, that makes
0:40:40 you better off than this.
0:40:45 There’s crappy supply and that’s why one of Harris’s pledges is to build, you know, three
0:40:47 million new units.
0:40:51 People can’t find stuff no matter what you’re looking for.
0:40:54 But I think there’s also been this shift and I’ve done a lot of research looking into
0:41:00 this, especially with Gen Zs and Millennials, but I just did a survey of Gen Alpha’s, so
0:41:04 13 to 17 year olds, about what the American dream means.
0:41:07 And home ownership is just off the table now.
0:41:11 It’s just not something, whether it means that they don’t think they could ever achieve
0:41:15 it or it’s just different things matter to them, you know, they prioritize experiences
0:41:18 over material items.
0:41:23 When you talk to a young person about what success means, they’re not leading with owning
0:41:24 a home.
0:41:25 But I know my parents did.
0:41:29 It was a huge deal for them when they were able to buy their first home.
0:41:31 Did you, was it a big issue for you?
0:41:38 Well, I, I am in this category of a very too high end renter.
0:41:43 We have enough money to buy a great place and could stay in our neighborhood and we’re
0:41:49 zoned for an incredible public school and all of it, but I don’t want to settle, especially
0:41:50 for that amount of money.
0:41:57 We worked really hard to save what we have and we can be in an apartment that is gorgeous
0:42:02 and perfect for us and we have enough space for two kids and, you know, the little car
0:42:09 that you can push around, you know, like the little Bam Bam wheels thing and our money
0:42:13 is doing really well in the market and I don’t want to pull it out.
0:42:14 Yep.
0:42:16 I think you just summarized how a lot of people feel.
0:42:17 The calculus is pretty straightforward.
0:42:24 You look at the cost of renting or the, the kind of yield on a place and in cities typically
0:42:29 like New York and San Francisco, it actually has a much better idea to rent because while
0:42:34 it might cost you $3 million to buy a really, you know, not even a nice home, an okay home
0:42:44 in Manhattan, say that ends up costing you $15,000 or $20,000 a month in mortgage insurance,
0:42:50 maintenance, you’d be better off renting and putting the additional, the rents, the yields
0:42:51 are really low.
0:42:57 In other words, as an owner, you get really low yields on rentals and people say, well,
0:43:00 that’s bad because they know that doesn’t increase housing stock, people don’t want to
0:43:07 buy, but in, as oddly expensive as it appears to rent in New York on a financial basis,
0:43:09 you’re better off renting.
0:43:11 Now some of the rural, the red states, you’re much better off.
0:43:16 If you live in St. Louis and you can buy a nice home for $550,000 and it has a big yard
0:43:19 and everything, you’re better off buying than renting.
0:43:25 But increasingly because of this uptick in extreme housing costs, more and more people
0:43:28 are deciding and also there’s, there’s advantages to renting.
0:43:29 You’re more mobile.
0:43:31 You get trapped.
0:43:34 But the housing, I really think this is a big issue for young Americans.
0:43:38 And I think it’s another reason why not as many young Americans are connecting, hooking
0:43:43 up and having children because I do think buying a house is sort of, you don’t really invest
0:43:48 as much in a place you’re renting and buying a home for me was like, let’s, let’s invest
0:43:49 in something.
0:43:51 And it’s sort of like saying we’re not engaged, but we’re kind of committing to each other
0:43:54 because we’re, we’re both going to be on the mortgage.
0:43:56 I think a lot of the, it’s had all these unintended consequences.
0:43:59 I’m fascinated with the housing market.
0:44:04 And that is one of the reasons I think travel stocks and live nation and event and experience
0:44:09 stocks have boomed is because I think there’s a lot of people your age and younger who have
0:44:12 essentially pre-kids, they were saving for a home.
0:44:16 This is what I did when I was bright, when I was young, you just get a girlfriend, you
0:44:17 start saving for a house.
0:44:18 That’s it.
0:44:19 You start saving for a house.
0:44:24 And now I think a lot of them have said, you know what, fuck it, let’s just go to Thailand
0:44:31 to get an Airbnb and go see Taylor Swift and travel stocks and live nation and attendance
0:44:35 and the tickets to go see Adele and Taylor Swift went to two, three, four grand because
0:44:42 I think people just decided I am done trying to pursue the American dream in the home of
0:44:43 real estate.
0:44:49 And if you want to look at a market that appears to be due for a correction, it’s the housing
0:44:50 market.
0:44:55 It’s fascinating the wealthy people who generally know how to do math have said, no, buying’s
0:44:57 not the way to go.
0:44:58 I totally agree.
0:45:05 I think there’s also the psychological component of what people want to define them.
0:45:09 You know, and it used to be that you would lead with, I live in this neighborhood, right?
0:45:13 It matters that I’m raising my family here.
0:45:15 And I don’t think that’s the same kind of thing now.
0:45:20 I think it’s stuff that you were saying like vacations, the moments that you share with
0:45:25 people who matter, the kind of trips that you’re taking, the kind of outside the schoolroom
0:45:30 education that you’re providing your kids with, the type of people who sit around your
0:45:36 dinner table, whether you own the home that that table is in or not, you know, I’m excited
0:45:41 that my daughters are growing up around people that are wildly interesting and doing cool
0:45:48 things with their lives more so than I care if they own their apartment in Brooklyn Heights.
0:45:52 So I think the calculus has just changed so much.
0:45:57 And obviously the rates contributed to this a lot, but it’s almost like it gave people
0:46:02 a bit of a break to take a step back in a moment where it wasn’t going to be smart for
0:46:08 you to just continue to pour money into this, but to really take stock of what kind of lives
0:46:09 they want.
0:46:13 Or maybe I’m just trying to make myself feel better because I couldn’t get the apartment
0:46:20 that I wanted, but I do think that people are being a lot more thoughtful about what
0:46:22 peak life looks like.
0:46:28 And it just doesn’t look the way that it did even 10, 15 years ago for them.
0:46:29 That’s really fascinating.
0:46:33 I love what you said, raising your kids around really interesting people.
0:46:36 I think that’s nice, Jessica, good for you.
0:46:37 Well, I hope you’ll come over.
0:46:38 That’s why I’m not there.
0:46:40 You said interesting people.
0:46:41 Yeah.
0:46:42 Yeah.
0:46:43 No, no.
0:46:44 Here’s the thing.
0:46:45 I don’t like people.
0:46:46 That’s the only thing.
0:46:47 But I’d like to meet your kids.
0:46:48 I would never have guessed that about you.
0:46:49 I would like to.
0:46:50 They’re really cute.
0:46:51 I gotta go once.
0:46:53 I can’t imagine that you and your husband produced.
0:46:56 You guys are such like, I don’t know what the term is, thoroughbreds.
0:47:00 I’d like you to have 4,000 kids and then I will take them and invade Australia.
0:47:05 I will be king of Australia and your children will be my warriors.
0:47:07 That’s all for this episode, Jesse.
0:47:10 Oh, I want to see something.
0:47:11 Go ahead.
0:47:12 I’m going to be on a panel at the Paley Center.
0:47:13 I was about to bring it up.
0:47:14 Which is such an…
0:47:15 Oh, okay.
0:47:16 I didn’t know.
0:47:17 So, thank you.
0:47:18 I want to play the game.
0:47:19 Yeah.
0:47:22 You have a panel coming up on Wednesday at the Paley Center.
0:47:24 Jess, what’s that all about?
0:47:30 Well, Scott, it’s about the election and covering the election and also the impact of the AI
0:47:33 and what voters are seeing, what can you trust, what can’t you trust?
0:47:35 I am super jazzed.
0:47:41 Margaret Hoover, who I’m kind of obsessed with, is on the panel as well and a lot more
0:47:42 people.
0:47:43 Christine Quinn’s on the panel.
0:47:46 The president of the Manhattan Institute is on the panel.
0:47:47 Anyway, it’s going to be great if you are in New York.
0:47:50 I think it’s sold out, but check.
0:47:51 Maybe it isn’t.
0:47:55 I would love to see you there, but I am just so honored to have been invited to be at the
0:47:56 Paley Center.
0:47:57 That’s nice.
0:47:58 What’s the date again?
0:47:59 It’s on Wednesday?
0:48:00 Or this Wednesday?
0:48:01 Wednesday, September 25th.
0:48:02 Okay, for you.
0:48:03 Yeah.
0:48:04 Thank you.
0:48:05 You’re welcome.
0:48:06 Thank you.
0:48:07 Thanks.
0:48:08 I’ll see you next time.
0:48:09 Bye.
0:48:10 Bye.
0:48:11 Bye.
0:48:13 You, too.
0:48:16 (upbeat music)
0:48:26 [BLANK_AUDIO]
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0:00:36 Will the VP debate move the needle in what’s shaping up to be a neck-and-neck election?
0:00:40 You never know in advance what will be the thing that matters and the thing that doesn’t matter.
0:00:48 But Donald Trump will be almost 80 and J.D. Vance will be one cheeseburger away
0:00:50 from the presidency should they win.
0:00:56 I’m Preet Bharara and this week the Atlantic magazine’s David Frum joins me on my podcast
0:00:59 Stay Tuned with Preet to break down what happened at the debate.
0:01:01 The episode is out now.
0:01:05 Search and follow Stay Tuned with Preet wherever you get your podcasts.
0:01:12 Hi everyone, I’m Brené Brown and I’d love to tell you about a new series that’s launching
0:01:13 on Unlocking Us.
0:01:17 I’m calling it the On My Heart and Mind Podcast series.
0:01:20 It’s going to include conversations with some of my favorite writers on topics ranging from
0:01:25 revolutionary love and gun ownership to menopause and finding joy and grief.
0:01:29 The first episode is available now and I can’t wait for you to hear it.
0:01:32 All new episodes will drop on Wednesdays and you can get them as soon as they’re out by
0:01:40 following Unlocking Us on Apple or wherever you listen to your podcasts.
0:01:41 Welcome to Raging Moderates.
0:01:42 I’m Scott Galloway.
0:01:43 And I’m Jessica Tarlove.
0:01:45 Jess, what’s going on at the five?
0:01:48 What’s going on there?
0:01:54 Well, a lot is going on but what was not going on with me on Friday was I was supposed to
0:01:58 be on the five and I couldn’t go in because I had such a bad allergic reaction to something
0:02:01 that half of my lip swelled up.
0:02:05 Do you remember the movie Hitch with Will Smith where he did the Serenote Bergerac,
0:02:09 like feeding guys good lines to get girls’ thing?
0:02:11 I feel like such an elder millennial that’s like 20 years ago.
0:02:12 Anyway.
0:02:13 What did you have an allergic reaction to?
0:02:14 His face explodes.
0:02:15 No, don’t tell me in case.
0:02:20 Well, I think maybe a lip balm that I used that had papaya in it.
0:02:21 It’s unclear.
0:02:26 But steroids, which is the greatest invention, maybe I guess penicillins better, but steroids
0:02:27 are really good.
0:02:31 But anyway, I sent a picture of my face at 6.30 in the morning to the producer who wrote
0:02:34 back, “We will not be seeing you today.”
0:02:39 But besides that, on the five, we talked about Mark Robinson a lot.
0:02:42 I know we’re going to talk about that later in the episode.
0:02:45 What’s happening generally though with a show like that as a run-up to election?
0:02:48 Is it just like a ratings bonanza and people are all over it?
0:02:50 Is this kind of your suites?
0:02:52 Is this the playoffs for you guys?
0:02:56 It is definitely the playoffs and the ratings still hang around 3 million.
0:03:01 We have a very tried and true audience, but we saw a big spike.
0:03:06 Greg Gottfeld, co-host on the five, had Trump on his show, Gottfeld exclamation point for
0:03:07 the whole hour.
0:03:10 And I think that got like 5 million viewers.
0:03:14 So people are definitely flocking in for election coverage.
0:03:15 Talk about the interview.
0:03:18 What was the least crazy and the craziest things he said?
0:03:23 Honestly, it was very low on the insanity.
0:03:28 I think as he was calm, he was amongst people who like him.
0:03:34 And what was really great for the audience, so Greg’s show, nighttime show is in front
0:03:38 of a live audience, and they didn’t know that Trump was the guest.
0:03:43 So they showed up for a regular episode and thought maybe they’d see Brian Kilmeade who
0:03:47 hosts Fox and Friends, and they got an hour of Donald Trump.
0:03:53 She somehow, a woman, somehow she’s doing better than he did.
0:03:56 But I can’t imagine it can last.
0:04:00 And he talked about everything from all the old shows that he used to do, like going on
0:04:03 Johnny Carson and Howard Stern, to some stuff about the campaign.
0:04:07 And of course, there were things that I would have fact checked.
0:04:12 But he was at his most charming, I would say.
0:04:16 And part of that was driven by a very good friend who’s on the show, Kat Tymph, who’s
0:04:17 a libertarian.
0:04:22 Kat’s actually come on your Prof. G podcast before when she had a book coming out a year
0:04:23 ago.
0:04:24 She has a new book even.
0:04:25 She’s prolific.
0:04:29 But Kat is not naturally partial to Trump.
0:04:32 She doesn’t love his policies.
0:04:38 And he was really clearly focused on getting her to like him and to be comfortable with
0:04:39 him.
0:04:41 And I saw a little bit of a different side of him.
0:04:43 Did it work or was it creepy?
0:04:45 Well, she’s pregnant.
0:04:48 So everything could look a little bit creepier.
0:04:52 You know how weird men are around pregnant women.
0:04:54 But he was on the other side of the set.
0:04:55 So it wasn’t creepy like that.
0:05:01 But you’re just acutely aware of everything when you’re 30 pounds heavier and with child.
0:05:02 What I’ve told–
0:05:03 I didn’t find it creepy.
0:05:04 I thought it was nice.
0:05:08 What I’ve told my boys is that unless you see the head crowning, never reference a woman’s
0:05:09 pregnancy.
0:05:10 Do not mention it.
0:05:14 And also watching the head crown is also frightening in another way.
0:05:15 So that’s a whole other episode.
0:05:16 All right.
0:05:17 Let’s go on to something more cheery.
0:05:21 Let’s talk about the latest polls, a bombshell in the North Carolina governor’s race, and
0:05:26 a surprising trend millionaires opting to rent instead of buy.
0:05:30 We’re six weeks from election day and the polls are starting to pile up.
0:05:35 Over the weekend we got an NBC News poll that showed Harris leading Trump 49 to 44% within
0:05:36 the margin of error.
0:05:37 So I don’t know.
0:05:40 At this point it feels like the polls are, I don’t want to say superfluous, but yeah,
0:05:41 who knows.
0:05:45 It’s a coin flip, though Trump leads on the economy inflation and the border.
0:05:48 Then on Monday, new numbers from the New York Times’ Santa College poll shows that Donald
0:05:51 Trump is doing well across the Sun Belt.
0:05:55 The tightest race is in North Carolina, where Trump leads Harris 49 to 47.
0:05:58 Georgia and Arizona show a slightly wider lead for Trump.
0:06:00 What’s your take on these numbers, Jessica?
0:06:01 You’re a pollster.
0:06:03 You get this stuff.
0:06:04 What can we take from this?
0:06:10 Well, I saw a very funny tweet that said, like, all data people are just going to have to
0:06:15 figure out how to say the same thing differently for the next six weeks, which is, like, this
0:06:20 is a tied race with a slight advantage today in this direction and, like, let me figure
0:06:27 out some forces underneath an undercurrent would probably be a better word for it.
0:06:30 That’ll make me have an interesting TV hit.
0:06:33 So that’s what I’m going to try to do with this.
0:06:40 We should note with the NBC poll what is special about it and a five-point lead is a big deal,
0:06:44 but the last time that they had a national poll, Biden was still the candidate and it
0:06:46 was Trump plus two.
0:06:52 So that just as an encapsulation of how different this race is, something that I was paying
0:06:58 attention to is obviously what’s going on in the swing states, but they had the question
0:07:05 of who represents change and Harris is up nine points on Trump with that.
0:07:08 And that’s something that people say really matters and has been a question in all of
0:07:09 this.
0:07:13 Like, how do you become a change agent if you are the sitting vice president?
0:07:19 And her highest tested statement from the debate was when she said, I’m not Joe Biden.
0:07:23 And clearly people are feeling that and they’re saying, I know what Trump is like.
0:07:25 I know what Biden is like.
0:07:28 This is a new person.
0:07:34 And then she also was 20 points up on who has the better mental and physical capability.
0:07:39 So basically by moving Biden out of the way, now everyone is actually paying attention to
0:07:47 what Donald Trump is actually like and they’re not loving what they’re seeing.
0:07:51 Other big things like the lead on the economy has gone down a ton.
0:07:56 He was over 20 points ahead, it’s now nine points in the CBS poll, he’s only up six points
0:07:57 on the economy.
0:08:02 So for all of this talk of Kamala Harris isn’t really telling people anything, she’s not
0:08:05 answering questions and no one knows what she stands for.
0:08:10 The results seem to indicate that people do know what she stands for.
0:08:14 They know enough to say that she would be within six to 10 points of Donald Trump on
0:08:18 who’s best to manage the economy, which means they probably heard something.
0:08:24 I don’t know, what do you think about the results or say something fancy about a tide
0:08:25 race?
0:08:33 Yeah, it’s really striking to me that there’s such a thing as an undecided voter.
0:08:39 I think there are a few things you could label yourself that out you as more of a village
0:08:43 idiot than at this point being an undecided, let me get this, you’re like, it’s a tossup
0:08:47 for you, you can’t quite figure out, I think anyone who says they’re an undecided voter
0:08:54 at this point is a closeted trumper and is pretending to be thoughtful.
0:08:59 For me at this point, and you know more about politics than I do, at this point it’s all
0:09:00 about turnout.
0:09:04 I just don’t buy that anyone’s undecided that isn’t a village fucking idiot looking
0:09:08 for someone to interview them with a mic in front of them as an undecided.
0:09:11 How could you be undecided at this point?
0:09:16 And also this criticism that she hasn’t done an interview and we don’t know her policies,
0:09:22 she was a senator, she was an attorney general, she was the vice president.
0:09:27 You know that basically she’s center left, she’s more conservative on law and order and
0:09:30 economics issues than most people give her credit for.
0:09:37 On Israel and Gaza, I think people are probably a little less clear on where she stands, but
0:09:41 you’re clear on where Trump stands, okay, you can be clear that he doesn’t mind that
0:09:45 a woman’s bodily autonomy is taken away from her.
0:09:48 But he was for TikTok or against it until he was for it.
0:09:52 He was against tariffs until he was for them.
0:09:57 I have a huge cohort of friends and I don’t want to say respected, but I understand it.
0:10:01 They just think government is ineffective and they just go in and vote for whoever they think
0:10:04 is going to put more money in their pockets in the short run and they think that’s going
0:10:05 to be Donald Trump.
0:10:08 So they go in, they listen to everybody rage about Donald Trump and then they say, “Hold
0:10:12 my beer,” and they go, “Mine occurred,” and then they vote for Trump.
0:10:16 I’m just trying to figure out, do you really think … Well, let me put this forward as
0:10:21 a thesis, where her money will come in right now is the get out the vote part that’s going
0:10:26 to take place over the next eight weeks or whatever it is.
0:10:29 That’s where the money’s going to kick in, I hope, but at this point, it’s not about
0:10:33 undecided voters, it’s about turning out the vote, your thoughts.
0:10:35 Two-parted response.
0:10:38 One requires you to have watched Bill Maher from Friday.
0:10:39 I saw that.
0:10:40 I’m not sure if he …
0:10:41 That was great.
0:10:43 Let’s just grab Brett Stevens.
0:10:45 For the last two weeks, I’ve been going on and on.
0:10:49 I can’t figure out where undecided voters … Where informed undecided voters are.
0:10:53 I’m like, “Who’s the person who has a list on their refrigerator of like, ‘Well, she said
0:10:55 this,'” and he said, “I’m like, ‘Who is this person?'” and then I opened the New York
0:10:57 Times three days ago and it’s you.
0:11:02 Stephanie Rohl says, “I’m trying to figure out who this person is and here you are sitting
0:11:08 next to me with a microphone in front of your face on one of the most salient political
0:11:15 chat shows that’s in business right now telling us you’re definitely not for Trump, but you
0:11:17 just don’t get calm enough.”
0:11:19 You can’t vote for Trump, but you need to know her policies.
0:11:21 I’m like, “Okay, what does that mean, boss?”
0:11:25 But it’s also for a lot of these people who are highly educated and certainly capable
0:11:30 of reading a website, all the policies are there.
0:11:39 If you harbor a fear that she is secretly going to ban fracking on day 112 when there’s
0:11:44 no evidence of that, certainly from how the Biden-Harris administration conducted itself,
0:11:51 or that she secretly hates Jews even though she’s married to one who talks about it constantly,
0:11:58 or that she’s going to fund transgender surgeries for undocumented people who are in prison
0:12:03 as per the ACLU survey that she signed in 2019.
0:12:08 I can’t help you, but I don’t think that’s who Brett Stevens is.
0:12:15 I have someone very close to me, my mentor has a very big successful job in finance and
0:12:20 he’s not going to vote for Donald Trump, but every day sending me things.
0:12:21 Why won’t she answer this?
0:12:22 I need to know this.
0:12:25 I need to know that.
0:12:30 Some of it is just like Stephanie Roll was saying it, like tough noogies.
0:12:33 You’re not going to get it exactly the way that you want it and that doesn’t mean that
0:12:38 she shouldn’t do more and it seems like they really are ramping up and that they needed
0:12:43 that first four to six weeks when she didn’t expect to be the candidate.
0:12:46 That really flies in the face of this whole Grand Coup plan.
0:12:51 Kamala Harris woke up that Sunday and was like, “Holy shit, I could end up being president
0:12:57 of the United States of America on November 5th instead of the vice president, but the
0:13:04 discrepancy and standards to which these two candidates are being held kills me.”
0:13:08 I find that I spend most of my time when you say what’s going on on the five, that’s what’s
0:13:14 going on on the five, that I’m saying over and over, she did this, she said this, you’re
0:13:20 ignoring this and I get it, people are partisans and Trump has done some things that I probably
0:13:26 haven’t given him full due for, like the Abraham Accords, it’s pretty awesome and I was not
0:13:31 as generous about it as I should have been because I don’t like Donald Trump.
0:13:34 He got China right, that’s the other thing I would say.
0:13:37 I think he early recognized the asymmetry and trade between us and China, I would give
0:13:38 him credit for that.
0:13:39 Did he fix it?
0:13:45 Well, he’s the first to call them out, he announced the TikTok ban and then unannounced
0:13:51 it, but he did put in place tariffs that the Biden administration has kept in place.
0:13:55 You’re going to get some shit right and he doesn’t get credit for any of it, she won’t
0:13:59 get credit for anything, she does for her critics.
0:14:04 The thing that I find, these folks saying they need more information, I would argue,
0:14:08 they’re Trumpers and they’re going to vote for Trump, I just don’t.
0:14:14 Anyone saying that in my view is either closeted to Trump voter and they want to pretend there’s
0:14:21 a legitimate reason not to vote for her or it’s referred anger and it’s anger around,
0:14:26 and I have a little bit of this, she was coronated, there wasn’t a competition and she still
0:14:32 sort of in some ways engages to compete in terms of going out and really meeting with
0:14:35 a ton of reporters and doing a bunch of interviews.
0:14:41 Having said that, it’s a little bit unfair to levy this indictment or this accusation
0:14:47 that she won’t let her policies, she won’t come out when she’s the one who is challenging
0:14:53 him to another debate and he won’t show up for that.
0:14:57 Yeah, I don’t believe that they’re all closeted Trumpers.
0:15:04 I think that your anger thesis is probably more what’s going on here, that people are
0:15:11 pissed off about the process, that frankly they’re angry that Biden continued on.
0:15:16 If he had dropped out a year earlier and we had a mini primary and everyone saw essentially
0:15:22 what was on display at the DNC, all of this talent, they saw Gretchen Whitmer and Wes
0:15:29 Moore and Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris and whoever else was going
0:15:36 to throw their hat in the ring and Josh Pirro of course, then we might have A in their mind
0:15:39 had a stronger candidate if they don’t think Kamala would have emerged from that.
0:15:44 I actually think there’s a pretty decent likelihood that she could have come out the victor of
0:15:49 a mini primary, but we got to a point where there was just not enough time to do it and
0:15:57 I think when politicians say something that just circumvents the truth and it feels to
0:16:02 you and we’re not politicians trying to hang on to our seats or anything like that, but
0:16:05 it feels like one of those moments where you just say, “Just tell me the honest thing.
0:16:06 It really wouldn’t bother me.”
0:16:10 Stop saying there was an open competition, no one else threw their hat in the ring.
0:16:11 There wasn’t an open competition.
0:16:16 I happened to be fine with it and perfectly comfortable with what happened because I do
0:16:23 think Kamala was on the ticket and so the people were saying, “I’m voting for an 81-year-old
0:16:27 guy who is unlikely to finish his term anyway so I have to be comfortable with the Kamala
0:16:28 Harris presidency.”
0:16:33 But like when Pelosi says, “Anyone could have thrown their hat in,” obviously not.
0:16:37 I’m not saying that you called them up and said, “Don’t you dare,” but you weren’t welcoming
0:16:38 it.
0:16:44 We’ll be right back.
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0:18:01 I have something that’s not in the script.
0:18:05 I would just love to get your reactions to because we were so busy a pivot.
0:18:10 We didn’t bring it up, which is actually kind of convenient given that it’s a Vox property.
0:18:14 But I’m curious to get your thoughts, if any, on a story that’s kind of coming on around
0:18:20 Olivia Nozzi and RFK Jr. and this “digital relationship.”
0:18:24 I don’t even know how to describe it, but I had a lot of thoughts about it and I tweeted
0:18:25 about it or I threaded about it.
0:18:28 And I got some what I thought was really intelligent pushback, but I’m curious what
0:18:30 you think of the whole situation.
0:18:38 Well, what we know so far is that Olivia Nozzi, who is a 31-year-old star campaign reporter
0:18:43 at New York Magazine, had written about RFK Jr.
0:18:44 Gotten to know him through that.
0:18:47 She covered the presidential race for New York Magazine, right?
0:18:53 In general, yes, but she had done a piece on him and she had also written what is widely
0:19:00 regarded as the most consequential piece in putting the vinyl nail in Biden’s coffin.
0:19:05 Basically saying that every Democrat in Washington thinks he can’t do this and it’s not just
0:19:11 voters that are uneasy, but there’s this whisper campaign and Biden should be exiting
0:19:12 stage left.
0:19:16 And I think that came out July 4th or July 5th, something like that.
0:19:21 And now that it has been revealed that she was having a digital affair, which is rumored
0:19:28 to include racy photos, very demure of her that she was having to.
0:19:29 The word “digital” freaked me out.
0:19:32 I’m like, does that mean she sticks her finger up as ass during sex?
0:19:33 Like I didn’t know what “digital” meant.
0:19:35 So it’s sexting in photos?
0:19:37 What does it mean?
0:19:39 It’s on your device.
0:19:46 As far as we know, which is different for RFK Jr., who usually engages in the actual
0:19:53 digital, goes analog, what is it, 37 times that he cheated on his wife that he detailed
0:19:56 in that horrific diary that eventually led to her killing herself.
0:19:59 And she referenced it in her suicide note.
0:20:02 Yeah, but he said she took it back.
0:20:03 You didn’t hear that part?
0:20:08 She wasn’t mad at all, very happy with how things turned out.
0:20:15 So part of the backstory that’s also interesting to this, at least from the gossip standpoint,
0:20:21 is that Olivia Nuzzi is engaged to Ryan Liza, who is also a DC politics reporter.
0:20:30 He writes playbook now for Politico, and he left his wife for Nuzzi 20 years, his junior.
0:20:37 And so there was a lot of online, the karma of you leave your wife for someone 20 years
0:20:43 younger and then she leaves you for a 70 year old, 70 years older than you.
0:20:49 Yes, a 70 year old Kennedy who has a brain worm, and it’s just not your average Kennedy
0:20:50 bear.
0:20:51 That was good.
0:20:55 I just want to highlight that was good.
0:20:56 I’m sorry.
0:20:57 Go ahead.
0:20:58 Thank you.
0:21:04 It doesn’t feel ethically sound that she continued to cover the campaign like this.
0:21:09 And the story that’s coming out of RFK Jr.’s camp doesn’t seem fully believable that she
0:21:15 basically stalked him and he wasn’t interested because this guy is a dog and he’s been interested
0:21:22 in everybody that’s been interested in him over the years, but people are really, they’re
0:21:24 all over the place on this.
0:21:29 People defending her saying, “We all make mistakes too,” like, “Are you f-ing kidding
0:21:30 me?”
0:21:35 That you went on and continued to cover this race, but I want to hear what you threaded
0:21:38 and what the thoughtful responses were.
0:21:44 So when I first saw this, I think it was a little bit triggered because the Clintons
0:21:50 were sort of my heroes, and as I learned more about what went down with Monica Lewinsky,
0:21:54 I just felt, I literally felt they didn’t ruin her life because she has a nice life.
0:21:59 I’ve become sort of like Twitter-friendly with her, but they basically, it felt like
0:22:06 such an abuse of power from him and then them collectively kind of indicting her and disparaging.
0:22:14 I just, it just broke my heart the way they treated her, and this woman, Cara Swisher,
0:22:17 actually did this fantastic interview with her, and she said, “What would your life have
0:22:18 been like?
0:22:21 Imagine had this not happened,” and she said, “Well,” and she’s obviously a very impressive
0:22:22 young woman.
0:22:24 I wanted to go get a PhD by this point.
0:22:28 I thought it would have been married, maybe a couple of kids, maybe working in policy,
0:22:31 and you just feel your heart breaking because can you imagine dating?
0:22:36 Can you imagine getting a job when you’re Monica Lewinsky in your 20s and 30s?
0:22:40 And so I was a little bit triggered by this story because if you pulled up, if you typed
0:22:45 an RFK that morning, there were 10 stories come up with 10 buttons or the pictures, whatever
0:22:50 you call it, and eight of them were a picture of her.
0:22:56 One was a picture of her and him, and the 10th was of her former fiance.
0:23:02 And I thought, okay, if it had come out that Vice President Harris or Secretary Clinton
0:23:07 we’re having a, quote unquote, “digital affair” with a guy, it wouldn’t be pictures of the
0:23:08 guy.
0:23:14 I thought the reflexive, the automatic reflexive reaction of media is to slut shame.
0:23:17 And this was an easy one from her standpoint.
0:23:21 She should be fired in an ethical lapse in journalism.
0:23:24 You’re not supposed to have any sort of relationship like that with people you’re covering on something
0:23:26 as important as presidential politics.
0:23:29 You sit her down and say, “You fucked up, you’re fired.”
0:23:32 And people are fired for a lot less.
0:23:35 She’s trying to maintain a career as a top-level journalist.
0:23:38 I think she’s so talented that she’ll recover from it and probably move on.
0:23:43 I don’t think this is anything like the drama of the Lewinsky-Clinton scandal.
0:23:49 But he, at the age of 70, is trying to convince us that he should get the nuclear codes.
0:23:51 And yet the story wasn’t at all about him.
0:23:55 And now he is framing, I can see what their campaign is doing, they’re trying to frame
0:24:01 her as like a glen-close, boiled-arabbit person that was so drawn to him because his charms.
0:24:05 And so I came out and said, “This story really shouldn’t be about her, it should be about
0:24:07 him.”
0:24:10 And Julie Heimann, who’s a great reporter at Yahoo!
0:24:13 I actually met her at Bloomberg, and I don’t think I’m speaking out of school because I
0:24:20 think she was right, wrote me and said, “Scott, this is about journalistic ethics and you’re
0:24:25 taking away her agency, just portraying her as this foe-y little dawn, this foe-y little
0:24:31 foe-y little foe, they can’t resist the charms of an older Kennedy.”
0:24:37 But I found the media’s reaction really interesting, that they were very focused on her, and maybe
0:24:45 that’s because they’re like, “Okay, this guy’s a weirdo, so we expect this from him.”
0:24:52 But I found it really weird that the media immediately went to, this was her fault, and
0:24:55 the story was all about her.
0:24:58 It felt like slut-shaming to me.
0:25:05 It felt like none of the lessons of the Me Too era were being remembered at all.
0:25:10 When people in positions of power take advantage of them, and there is an imbalance, there’s
0:25:16 an age imbalance, there’s a power imbalance, RFK Jr. has been through worse than getting
0:25:17 some bad press.
0:25:21 That’s the worst that Olivia Nuzzy could do to him.
0:25:26 You can’t get worse than dumping a dead bear cub in Central Park or the whale that he hacked
0:25:31 the head off of, that he’s being charged like 37 grand for letting the blood and guts leak
0:25:35 on his kids or whatever he was doing in that station wagon.
0:25:42 I did find that to be absent in it, and I said to my husband that it bothers me about
0:25:47 myself that I don’t know definitively how I feel about this.
0:25:53 I know that there was a breach in ethics, and I know that that matters a lot.
0:26:00 I get paranoid when I even say something on air and don’t disclose that I know the person
0:26:08 or come across the person at a party or whatever it is, let alone I’m going to go out and write,
0:26:12 like I was saying, the seminal piece about Biden’s fitness for office.
0:26:19 When I’m sending photos of myself to a guy who also wants that job, now no one took it
0:26:24 seriously that he was going to get that job, and it looks like his effect is hopefully
0:26:28 going to be close to nil now that he is not technically in the race anymore, though he’s
0:26:32 still going to be on some ballots, but is on Team Trump vying for the health secretary
0:26:33 position.
0:26:40 But I think you’re right that she will have a future somewhere, and you see that people
0:26:45 on the right specifically defending her a lot more than people on the left.
0:26:46 She’ll end up at free press.
0:26:47 Is that what it’s called?
0:26:49 Yeah, the Barry Weiss outfit.
0:26:50 Yeah.
0:26:51 I bet she’ll end up there.
0:26:52 She’s very talented.
0:26:54 Well, that would be a great landing for her.
0:26:56 That’s not even what I was envisioning.
0:26:57 No, she’s a talent.
0:26:59 She’s a real talent, I think.
0:27:00 Yeah.
0:27:01 Anyways, we’ll see.
0:27:03 So anyways, thanks for the digression.
0:27:05 Let’s get back to the polls.
0:27:09 What do you think the candidates can do if you’re advising them?
0:27:14 What can they do to shore up key battleground states at this point?
0:27:19 Well, I think showing up matters, and they are both showing up places that they need
0:27:23 to, Kamala and Tim Walls, more than Trump is.
0:27:27 JD Vance has been out there a ton, but there was a graph and infographic floating around
0:27:33 about how many fewer rallies Trump is doing, certainly from 2016, when it was breakneck
0:27:34 pace.
0:27:38 You know, it just was unstoppable how many he was doing.
0:27:43 And then obviously it went down in 2020, but that this is really like a whimper.
0:27:49 But something that I saw and that popped out to me in the numbers that show what Kamala
0:27:55 can do or continue to do is that she’s moving back to the right levels with black and Latino
0:27:58 voters, which was a real soft spot.
0:28:05 And it seems like with Latino voters specifically that this message about border security and
0:28:09 also things like home ownership is something that’s really resonating with them, like talking
0:28:12 to them not as a minority group.
0:28:17 And I noticed it’s something that youth think about a lot, that people should stop presenting
0:28:24 themselves as a certain type of person and just as an American, and she doesn’t talk
0:28:28 about her identity, she doesn’t say black Southeast Asian, et cetera.
0:28:34 She’s just going for it as someone with the same interests and needs and desires as everyone
0:28:35 else.
0:28:41 And I think that that is the way forward for anyone to be able to win this election.
0:28:42 What do you think about that?
0:28:44 Yeah, I think I like that.
0:28:46 I think that’s solid.
0:28:51 What’s interesting is the data I’ve seen says that inflation remains voters’ most important
0:28:52 issue.
0:28:58 And it sounds like that’s the issue that is probably most up for grabs, I would argue.
0:29:03 And what’s interesting is, and again, their perception is their reality.
0:29:08 People see him as a businessman, lower interest rates during his tenure.
0:29:12 They think he’s just, they reflexively think he’d be better on the economy.
0:29:15 I think she’s made some real missteps around things like price controls.
0:29:19 I don’t think that makes any sense, a wealth tax.
0:29:22 We talked a little bit about that, that doesn’t make any sense for me.
0:29:26 But at the same time, his proposal is around tariffs and being as anti-immigration as he’s
0:29:30 claiming, there’s a few things that could be more inflationary.
0:29:37 So I don’t know, if I were her, I would do a lot around inflation right now, saying we
0:29:41 need to break up these big companies, we’ll bring prices down.
0:29:43 She’s talked about growth.
0:29:45 What is the growth mindset around the economy?
0:29:49 How do we bring specifically what programs am I going to put in place to bring inflation
0:29:51 down that economists would sign off of?
0:29:57 Because when she says price controls, all economists say is, okay, so I remember right
0:30:03 out of college, my buddy Lee Lotus said, we should rent in Santa Monica because we can
0:30:04 get rent control.
0:30:05 And I’m like, yeah, but those things never come up.
0:30:09 He’s like, yeah, but we’re two white yuppies, so we’ll have an easier time.
0:30:10 And I said, why is that?
0:30:16 Well, all the people who own apartments in Santa Monica, because they’re rent controlled,
0:30:21 they get 50 applicants and they always end up picking young white professionals.
0:30:24 And I thought, okay, that’s what happens when you have price controls.
0:30:26 I mean, rent control just doesn’t work.
0:30:27 Price controls just don’t work.
0:30:30 If there’s gouging during a hurricane, I get it.
0:30:34 But the notion that you’re going to tell a marketplace, you’re going to put a cap on
0:30:37 prices, that to me just doesn’t work.
0:30:39 I thought that made, didn’t make any sense.
0:30:42 But I would, she has some very smart economic policy advisors.
0:30:47 I would come up with some sort of acronym for the three things she’s going to do to ensure
0:30:49 inflation goes to its target level.
0:30:54 Or maybe she just talks about the fact that, hey, I don’t know if anyone’s noticed, but
0:30:57 inflation, cornflation is at 3.3, but inflation overall, inflation is at 2.5.
0:30:59 The target is two.
0:31:01 We’ve brought down inflation faster than anyone.
0:31:02 Maybe they spend that on ads.
0:31:06 I don’t watch TV or ad supported TV, so I don’t know if she’s running ads, but it seems
0:31:09 like inflation is one of the last things.
0:31:10 Tons of them.
0:31:11 Tons of them.
0:31:12 And what are they focused on?
0:31:15 Kamala Harris has spent decades fighting violent crime.
0:31:20 As vice president, she backed the toughest border control bill in decades.
0:31:22 Fixing the border is tough.
0:31:24 So is Kamala Harris.
0:31:31 A lot of it has been autobiographical because she still is also introducing herself.
0:31:35 But they are getting into more policy specific stuff.
0:31:40 And it’s a lot about the small business policies and encouraging that.
0:31:42 And I think she has some great surrogates, like, I love them.
0:31:45 Mark Cuban is out there and he’s just going everywhere.
0:31:46 Right?
0:31:50 Like, I’ll talk to you on a podcast, I’ll talk to you on SquawkBox.
0:31:53 And I’m going to disagree with Kamala about certain things, but I’m going to tell you
0:31:56 why NetNet, she’s going to be better for your pocketbook.
0:32:01 And on the price controls part, she never actually said price control.
0:32:06 But she is trying to represent, and I get it that maybe this hasn’t been done effectively,
0:32:08 is essentially antitrust enforcement.
0:32:12 And you even saw after she started talking about it that some of the companies that she
0:32:16 had mentioned, like the Walmarts of the World, the Kroger’s, they dropped their prices.
0:32:20 That there were, they were being artificially inflated because they could get away with
0:32:21 it.
0:32:22 Right?
0:32:25 They were basically pretending that the supply chain was still as shitty as it was in 2021,
0:32:27 which is obviously not the case.
0:32:32 And as people start to notice in their regular lives that maybe it doesn’t cost so much
0:32:36 to fill up their tank, or maybe chicken is costing less when they go to buy dinner for
0:32:41 their family, that that is naturally warming them to Kamala Harris.
0:32:48 And then Trump isn’t doing the work to be able to prove the case that he would be better
0:32:50 if he were the one steering the economy right now.
0:32:55 So that’s how I see it in a best case scenario for her on the inflation issue.
0:32:59 So according to this poll, the things that he beats around specifically, securing the
0:33:03 border and controlling immigration, he beats her by a whopping 21 points on dealing with
0:33:04 the economy.
0:33:09 He’s up by nine, dealing with inflation and the cost of living up by eight, dealing with
0:33:13 crime and violence up by six, serving as commander-in-chief.
0:33:16 She beats him by one, getting the country headed in the right direction.
0:33:20 She beats him by four, being competent and effective.
0:33:21 She beats him by five.
0:33:27 It’s funny, I would think being competent and effective would be the halo around all
0:33:28 of this.
0:33:31 Anyways, we’ll be back after a quick break to discuss the race for governor in North
0:33:34 Carolina and an interesting trend in the housing market.
0:33:35 Stay with us.
0:33:40 All right, Jess, we’re going to shift gears here.
0:33:45 The race for governor in North Carolina exploded with a story that could have national repercussions.
0:33:50 Mark Robinson, the GOP front runner, is in hot water after past common service where he
0:33:53 compared himself to a black Nazi.
0:33:55 That’s not even the most shocking part.
0:34:01 There are also disturbing revelations about his activity on an online porn forum.
0:34:05 Jessica, do you think this is more gossip than tangible?
0:34:07 Do you think this has any impact?
0:34:14 Well, his basically his whole staff quit, so yeah, I think it does have an impact.
0:34:19 He tried to say that it was AI and this was all fake, but I don’t think everyone quits.
0:34:22 Oh, no, I mean an impact on the presidential race, not on Robinson.
0:34:25 I think he’s toast or I don’t know if he’s toast.
0:34:26 Oh, yeah.
0:34:31 Well, he was kind of toasty, at least before this happened, but I do think that it has
0:34:38 an impact on the race and that these candidates like the Doug Masturianos of the world and
0:34:42 there was someone who pointed out, which is funny, that if you’re an A.G. named Josh,
0:34:44 just stay in line.
0:34:49 So this is Josh Stein in North Carolina and it was Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania who ended
0:34:58 up running against these kind of Trumpy lunatics, but I wonder in a year like this with so many
0:35:06 important issues on the table, how much split ticket voting is actually going to happen.
0:35:12 And the Harris campaign has been really focused on North Carolina anyway, obviously more so
0:35:17 at this point, but what do you think the likelihood is that people are going to walk into that
0:35:22 booth and say, you know, Josh Stein for sure, obviously we can’t have Mark Robinson, but
0:35:24 Trump in North Carolina.
0:35:27 I mean, in Georgia, they do this all the time, right?
0:35:33 They sit with two Democratic senators and they love Brian Kemp and a lot of conservatives.
0:35:39 Yeah, I think as I just hear you speak about it, I wonder if it cements or buttresses a
0:35:46 very negative brand association of Trump-Harris that they’re weird, that this guy he’s actively
0:35:51 advocated for is kind of all caps weird, uncomfortable weird.
0:35:56 And that this is sort of, you know, this is kind of case in point or par for the course,
0:36:00 if you will, for the kind of people that Trump and Vance endorse.
0:36:04 And then on top of this, North Carolina is in play, right?
0:36:07 So maybe it is bigger.
0:36:10 And as you pointed out, this might affect down ballot races in a key state like North
0:36:11 Carolina.
0:36:12 Yeah.
0:36:17 I mean, that’s the hope with something like this, and clearly, you know, that opposition
0:36:21 research didn’t just appear out of nowhere on that day, that was the last day that you
0:36:23 could have gotten his name off the ballot.
0:36:27 So the Democrats waited until exactly the right moment.
0:36:34 I’m just trying to figure out what is the thought process where you decide to post a
0:36:36 comment on a porn site?
0:36:42 I mean, the black Nazi stuff, okay, I don’t get it, but even before that, I know I’m going
0:36:45 to comment on a porn site.
0:36:51 I mean, should that person be in a position of civic responsibility?
0:36:52 No.
0:36:55 So this is what I wanted to ask you about.
0:36:56 So it’s not just like…
0:36:58 As a commenter on porn sites?
0:36:59 Yeah.
0:37:03 As a frequent guest on New Dapark for myself.
0:37:07 But this was, you know, over many years, and it included the fact that he’s a peeping Tom.
0:37:12 Like, he’s talking about fantasizing about the fact that he used to watch women in public
0:37:15 gym showers and that he still fantasizes about it.
0:37:18 So this is my question.
0:37:24 If there was a conversation about Joe Biden being fit to serve six more months in his
0:37:29 job when he dropped out, how is there not a conversation that Mark Robinson should be
0:37:31 gone today?
0:37:39 That somebody who did that and who harbors these kinds of beliefs that he has espoused
0:37:47 even in this campaign about women, about reproductive rights, about race, tensions.
0:37:50 Like why is Mark Robinson still allowed to sit around?
0:37:55 But we had to hear about, you know, Joe Biden can only sit on the beach in Delaware and
0:37:57 can’t walk up three stairs.
0:38:04 I think America has decided that they’d rather have a pervert than someone old and feeble.
0:38:09 And that is, to a certain extent, Donald Trump and Elon Musk, and just, I don’t want to say
0:38:15 they’ve normalized weirdness around children and women and sex, but what have we not been
0:38:16 exposed to?
0:38:19 I mean, isn’t everyone just sort of like, “I’ve heard it.
0:38:20 I’ve seen it.
0:38:21 I don’t care.
0:38:22 I don’t.”
0:38:26 And if the Christian evangelicals will vote for somebody who has been married, you know,
0:38:32 has five kids by three women and has been accused of sexual assault by 28 women, okay,
0:38:35 whatever, this guy’s commented on a porn site.
0:38:38 I really don’t care.
0:38:40 What is unforgivable?
0:38:46 I think correctly, America, and I’ve been saying this for a year and was called an agist and
0:38:47 that’s accurate.
0:38:48 I’m an agist and so is biology.
0:38:54 Let me just say, if it was Biden and Trump, I think hands down the nation would have decided
0:38:59 they’d rather have someone guilty of sexual abuse than an old, feeble man who came across
0:39:03 as just like kind of not there.
0:39:07 So I don’t, I think America has decided that they’ll tolerate that.
0:39:08 Yeah.
0:39:15 I mean, aging is rough for everybody, but the way in which you age is actually so much
0:39:21 more important in terms of the impact that it has on your life when you look at how people
0:39:22 are perceiving you.
0:39:26 You know, you would think that Biden was 95 and that Trump was 75.
0:39:27 You got to give it to Trump.
0:39:31 Trump just looked more robust and it’s weird, just people look at me and even though I’m
0:39:33 50, they can’t believe it.
0:39:34 They just can’t believe it.
0:39:35 All right.
0:39:36 Let’s move on.
0:39:37 No.
0:39:38 Let’s move on.
0:39:39 Yes.
0:39:40 Yes.
0:39:42 Let’s talk about something a little different, but just as crucial, the housing crisis, there’s
0:39:47 a growing trend that’s kind of flying under the radar and that’s that wealthy people and
0:39:51 the poor are moving away from home ownership or recent piece in the Wall Street Journal highlighted
0:39:55 how even millionaires are renting their homes instead of buying them.
0:39:56 This is interesting.
0:40:00 Like this says about the state of the housing market.
0:40:01 That is very bad.
0:40:04 That’s the nuance you get here at Raging Water Rights.
0:40:05 Is that it?
0:40:06 Am I a business professor?
0:40:07 That’s it.
0:40:08 Yeah.
0:40:09 That’s why everyone comes to the podcast.
0:40:10 That’s it.
0:40:11 No.
0:40:13 I think that there is, if I could do, you know that emoji with like the two hands holding
0:40:19 each other when like two groups that you don’t think belong together find common cause.
0:40:24 That’s the housing market right now for people who have a few hundred thousand dollars to
0:40:28 be able to buy a home and people who have, you know, three to five million dollars to
0:40:29 find a home.
0:40:32 And I think part of it is a testament to how good the market is, that if you have your
0:40:39 money, if your down payment is doing the work in a fund for you, that that’s, that makes
0:40:40 you better off than this.
0:40:45 There’s crappy supply and that’s why one of Harris’s pledges is to build, you know, three
0:40:47 million new units.
0:40:51 People can’t find stuff no matter what you’re looking for.
0:40:54 But I think there’s also been this shift and I’ve done a lot of research looking into
0:41:00 this, especially with Gen Zs and Millennials, but I just did a survey of Gen Alpha’s, so
0:41:04 13 to 17 year olds, about what the American dream means.
0:41:07 And home ownership is just off the table now.
0:41:11 It’s just not something, whether it means that they don’t think they could ever achieve
0:41:15 it or it’s just different things matter to them, you know, they prioritize experiences
0:41:18 over material items.
0:41:23 When you talk to a young person about what success means, they’re not leading with owning
0:41:24 a home.
0:41:25 But I know my parents did.
0:41:29 It was a huge deal for them when they were able to buy their first home.
0:41:31 Did you, was it a big issue for you?
0:41:38 Well, I, I am in this category of a very too high end renter.
0:41:43 We have enough money to buy a great place and could stay in our neighborhood and we’re
0:41:49 zoned for an incredible public school and all of it, but I don’t want to settle, especially
0:41:50 for that amount of money.
0:41:57 We worked really hard to save what we have and we can be in an apartment that is gorgeous
0:42:02 and perfect for us and we have enough space for two kids and, you know, the little car
0:42:09 that you can push around, you know, like the little Bam Bam wheels thing and our money
0:42:13 is doing really well in the market and I don’t want to pull it out.
0:42:14 Yep.
0:42:16 I think you just summarized how a lot of people feel.
0:42:17 The calculus is pretty straightforward.
0:42:24 You look at the cost of renting or the, the kind of yield on a place and in cities typically
0:42:29 like New York and San Francisco, it actually has a much better idea to rent because while
0:42:34 it might cost you $3 million to buy a really, you know, not even a nice home, an okay home
0:42:44 in Manhattan, say that ends up costing you $15,000 or $20,000 a month in mortgage insurance,
0:42:50 maintenance, you’d be better off renting and putting the additional, the rents, the yields
0:42:51 are really low.
0:42:57 In other words, as an owner, you get really low yields on rentals and people say, well,
0:43:00 that’s bad because they know that doesn’t increase housing stock, people don’t want to
0:43:07 buy, but in, as oddly expensive as it appears to rent in New York on a financial basis,
0:43:09 you’re better off renting.
0:43:11 Now some of the rural, the red states, you’re much better off.
0:43:16 If you live in St. Louis and you can buy a nice home for $550,000 and it has a big yard
0:43:19 and everything, you’re better off buying than renting.
0:43:25 But increasingly because of this uptick in extreme housing costs, more and more people
0:43:28 are deciding and also there’s, there’s advantages to renting.
0:43:29 You’re more mobile.
0:43:31 You get trapped.
0:43:34 But the housing, I really think this is a big issue for young Americans.
0:43:38 And I think it’s another reason why not as many young Americans are connecting, hooking
0:43:43 up and having children because I do think buying a house is sort of, you don’t really invest
0:43:48 as much in a place you’re renting and buying a home for me was like, let’s, let’s invest
0:43:49 in something.
0:43:51 And it’s sort of like saying we’re not engaged, but we’re kind of committing to each other
0:43:54 because we’re, we’re both going to be on the mortgage.
0:43:56 I think a lot of the, it’s had all these unintended consequences.
0:43:59 I’m fascinated with the housing market.
0:44:04 And that is one of the reasons I think travel stocks and live nation and event and experience
0:44:09 stocks have boomed is because I think there’s a lot of people your age and younger who have
0:44:12 essentially pre-kids, they were saving for a home.
0:44:16 This is what I did when I was bright, when I was young, you just get a girlfriend, you
0:44:17 start saving for a house.
0:44:18 That’s it.
0:44:19 You start saving for a house.
0:44:24 And now I think a lot of them have said, you know what, fuck it, let’s just go to Thailand
0:44:31 to get an Airbnb and go see Taylor Swift and travel stocks and live nation and attendance
0:44:35 and the tickets to go see Adele and Taylor Swift went to two, three, four grand because
0:44:42 I think people just decided I am done trying to pursue the American dream in the home of
0:44:43 real estate.
0:44:49 And if you want to look at a market that appears to be due for a correction, it’s the housing
0:44:50 market.
0:44:55 It’s fascinating the wealthy people who generally know how to do math have said, no, buying’s
0:44:57 not the way to go.
0:44:58 I totally agree.
0:45:05 I think there’s also the psychological component of what people want to define them.
0:45:09 You know, and it used to be that you would lead with, I live in this neighborhood, right?
0:45:13 It matters that I’m raising my family here.
0:45:15 And I don’t think that’s the same kind of thing now.
0:45:20 I think it’s stuff that you were saying like vacations, the moments that you share with
0:45:25 people who matter, the kind of trips that you’re taking, the kind of outside the schoolroom
0:45:30 education that you’re providing your kids with, the type of people who sit around your
0:45:36 dinner table, whether you own the home that that table is in or not, you know, I’m excited
0:45:41 that my daughters are growing up around people that are wildly interesting and doing cool
0:45:48 things with their lives more so than I care if they own their apartment in Brooklyn Heights.
0:45:52 So I think the calculus has just changed so much.
0:45:57 And obviously the rates contributed to this a lot, but it’s almost like it gave people
0:46:02 a bit of a break to take a step back in a moment where it wasn’t going to be smart for
0:46:08 you to just continue to pour money into this, but to really take stock of what kind of lives
0:46:09 they want.
0:46:13 Or maybe I’m just trying to make myself feel better because I couldn’t get the apartment
0:46:20 that I wanted, but I do think that people are being a lot more thoughtful about what
0:46:22 peak life looks like.
0:46:28 And it just doesn’t look the way that it did even 10, 15 years ago for them.
0:46:29 That’s really fascinating.
0:46:33 I love what you said, raising your kids around really interesting people.
0:46:36 I think that’s nice, Jessica, good for you.
0:46:37 Well, I hope you’ll come over.
0:46:38 That’s why I’m not there.
0:46:40 You said interesting people.
0:46:41 Yeah.
0:46:42 Yeah.
0:46:43 No, no.
0:46:44 Here’s the thing.
0:46:45 I don’t like people.
0:46:46 That’s the only thing.
0:46:47 But I’d like to meet your kids.
0:46:48 I would never have guessed that about you.
0:46:49 I would like to.
0:46:50 They’re really cute.
0:46:51 I gotta go once.
0:46:53 I can’t imagine that you and your husband produced.
0:46:56 You guys are such like, I don’t know what the term is, thoroughbreds.
0:47:00 I’d like you to have 4,000 kids and then I will take them and invade Australia.
0:47:05 I will be king of Australia and your children will be my warriors.
0:47:07 That’s all for this episode, Jesse.
0:47:10 Oh, I want to see something.
0:47:11 Go ahead.
0:47:12 I’m going to be on a panel at the Paley Center.
0:47:13 I was about to bring it up.
0:47:14 Which is such an…
0:47:15 Oh, okay.
0:47:16 I didn’t know.
0:47:17 So, thank you.
0:47:18 I want to play the game.
0:47:19 Yeah.
0:47:22 You have a panel coming up on Wednesday at the Paley Center.
0:47:24 Jess, what’s that all about?
0:47:30 Well, Scott, it’s about the election and covering the election and also the impact of the AI
0:47:33 and what voters are seeing, what can you trust, what can’t you trust?
0:47:35 I am super jazzed.
0:47:41 Margaret Hoover, who I’m kind of obsessed with, is on the panel as well and a lot more
0:47:42 people.
0:47:43 Christine Quinn’s on the panel.
0:47:46 The president of the Manhattan Institute is on the panel.
0:47:47 Anyway, it’s going to be great if you are in New York.
0:47:50 I think it’s sold out, but check.
0:47:51 Maybe it isn’t.
0:47:55 I would love to see you there, but I am just so honored to have been invited to be at the
0:47:56 Paley Center.
0:47:57 That’s nice.
0:47:58 What’s the date again?
0:47:59 It’s on Wednesday?
0:48:00 Or this Wednesday?
0:48:01 Wednesday, September 25th.
0:48:02 Okay, for you.
0:48:03 Yeah.
0:48:04 Thank you.
0:48:05 You’re welcome.
0:48:06 Thank you.
0:48:07 Thanks.
0:48:08 I’ll see you next time.
0:48:09 Bye.
0:48:10 Bye.
0:48:11 Bye.
0:48:13 You, too.
0:48:16 (upbeat music)
0:48:26 [BLANK_AUDIO]
Scott and Jessica dive into the latest polling with a close look at key battleground states. Then, the North Carolina governor’s race takes a scandalous turn as GOP front-runner Mark Robinson faces backlash over controversial past comments. Finally, a surprising trend in the housing market: Why are millionaires opting to rent rather than buy, and what does it signal for the future of homeownership?
Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov.
Follow Prof G, @profgalloway.
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