Appealing to the Swing States + How to Be a Better Negotiator

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0:01:10 Episode 309, 390 is the area code
0:01:12 covering parts of Illinois in 1909,
0:01:15 Condonast was founded, true story.
0:01:16 My wife called me in a panic and said,
0:01:19 I found these weird SNM and bondage magazines
0:01:21 under our son’s bed and said, what should we do?
0:01:23 And I’m like, it’s obvious what we should do.
0:01:23 And she said, well, what?
0:01:25 And I said, spank him.
0:01:28 Go, go, go.
0:01:30 (upbeat music)
0:01:40 – Welcome to the 309th episode of the Prop G pod.
0:01:42 In today’s episode, we speak with Chris Voss,
0:01:44 the CEO and co-founder of Black Swan Group
0:01:47 and former lead FBI hostage negotiator.
0:01:48 Jesus, that’s a good rep.
0:01:49 What do you do?
0:01:51 I’m the lead FBI hostage negotiator.
0:01:52 Okay.
0:01:54 We are massive fans of Chris and here’s take
0:01:57 on how negotiation plays into all aspects of our lives,
0:02:00 including politics, war and relationships.
0:02:02 But first, we’re bringing back our favorite,
0:02:05 our gangster, the emerging political voice,
0:02:08 the leader, the pundit we need now,
0:02:10 Jessica Tarlov to hear what happens next now
0:02:12 that Biden has officially dropped out
0:02:13 of the presidential race.
0:02:21 So Jessica, kind of a slow news week, not really.
0:02:23 I’m not sure what we’re gonna talk about here,
0:02:25 but let’s start with, I found this story
0:02:27 that you might find interesting
0:02:29 and that is the president has actually dropped
0:02:34 out of the race and this woman named Kamala Harris
0:02:36 has raised an astounding $81 million
0:02:39 within the first 24 hours of announcing her bid
0:02:39 for president.
0:02:42 60% of the donors are first time donors in this race.
0:02:44 I’m actually, that’s the most impressive stat.
0:02:46 Jessica, what’s going on here?
0:02:47 What’s going on here?
0:02:49 What are your thoughts?
0:02:50 – I saw it coming back from Milwaukee.
0:02:52 I would get like a weekend, right?
0:02:54 We had the assassination attempt,
0:02:57 then we had everything that went out in the RNC,
0:02:58 Trump speaking, et cetera.
0:03:00 And I thought, oh, maybe I’ll just chill out.
0:03:03 Like I made a couple of small people,
0:03:05 I’ll go with them, I’ll hang in the park.
0:03:06 The sprinklers are on, very exciting
0:03:08 in every two-year-old slave.
0:03:10 And then Sunday happens.
0:03:13 And it was this weird moment where I thought,
0:03:15 does Mark Halperin actually know something again?
0:03:19 Because he was the first reporter out on Twitter
0:03:22 on Thursday Friday saying, it’s Sunday.
0:03:24 And we were all like, what are you talking about?
0:03:27 How does Mark Halperin have information
0:03:29 that Democratic-leaning reporters don’t have,
0:03:32 someone less disgraced doesn’t have?
0:03:35 And I still don’t believe that Mark Halperin
0:03:37 necessarily had inside information.
0:03:39 And the story of the campaign is giving
0:03:42 that Biden basically decided on his own
0:03:44 that he couldn’t do this anymore
0:03:47 and that it wasn’t going to stop, the kind of onslaught.
0:03:50 But remarkable few days in American politics.
0:03:55 And what’s going on is we’ve all been coconut-pilled now.
0:03:57 – Right, I saw that.
0:03:59 – I’m not a TikTok person.
0:04:02 I have fear of the Chinese Communist Party
0:04:03 being in my phone,
0:04:05 though I’m sure they’re in there for other reasons.
0:04:08 And I just know that I spend hours and hours and hours on it.
0:04:10 But I have taken a look
0:04:14 and the kids are gone crazy for her.
0:04:19 – Amazing, and I do, as an awkward person myself,
0:04:23 appreciate that online, awkward people can be cool.
0:04:26 And you’re seeing that really coming to life for her.
0:04:28 But I think kind of writ large,
0:04:31 what you’re seeing is how desperate the Democratic Party
0:04:35 was to feel inspired and alive again.
0:04:39 And that this doesn’t actually have a lot to do
0:04:42 with Kamala herself necessarily.
0:04:44 And she’s still behind in the polls
0:04:44 about five points behind.
0:04:49 She was running behind Joe Biden in national polls
0:04:51 and in key swing states as well.
0:04:55 But everyone needed this shot of adrenaline
0:04:57 and it led them to their pocket books.
0:05:01 And we’ve got a real election now.
0:05:04 – Yeah, it really is striking.
0:05:06 I’ve kind of gotten swallowed up in a net
0:05:09 is I thought Biden was gonna drop out
0:05:11 and then I wanted a competition on a coronation.
0:05:12 And I gotta be honest,
0:05:16 I’ve been sort of this Kamala mania
0:05:18 has sort of swept over me.
0:05:22 And I’m almost now like kind of on the Kamala train,
0:05:23 like let’s get on it.
0:05:28 And I have been really surprised and inspired.
0:05:30 It’s a little bit like living in London.
0:05:33 And that is, I feel as if it’s been so gray,
0:05:35 so depressing for six months.
0:05:37 And then the sun comes out
0:05:39 and you realize just what an amazing city it is.
0:05:42 I feel like the sun came out Monday morning
0:05:46 and we just realized what an amazing country party.
0:05:49 This all of a sudden it feels like everything is better
0:05:50 and looks better.
0:05:52 It’s like literally the sun came out.
0:05:54 What are your thoughts?
0:05:55 – I’m loath to make a comparison
0:05:58 because we all know how it turned out.
0:06:02 But what I’m feeling and what my text messages
0:06:04 are indicating and what I’m reading online
0:06:07 is the enthusiasm that women felt
0:06:10 about Hillary Clinton in 2016.
0:06:13 That I walked around in my tank top
0:06:15 that said a woman’s place is in the White House.
0:06:17 I went to vote with my dad.
0:06:24 There was this belief that we could change as a country.
0:06:29 And Kamala Harris represents an ability to change
0:06:30 if we do take that route.
0:06:34 And it goes in all sorts of different directions.
0:06:38 She is meaningful to a ton of different demographic groups.
0:06:41 And they’ve all really embraced her.
0:06:44 And I’m not sure about how that manifests
0:06:46 actually on election day.
0:06:50 And she has 105 days or 104 days now, I think,
0:06:52 to redefine herself.
0:06:54 Because the definition that the voters
0:06:58 who determine these elections have is not good.
0:07:00 This is not a woman that plays well
0:07:05 naturally in a Pennsylvania, in a Michigan, in a Wisconsin.
0:07:08 She’s bringing new spirit and life to the board, right?
0:07:10 Especially if she picks Mark Kelly out of Arizona,
0:07:13 maybe that’s on the board in Georgia.
0:07:16 They’re going bananas for her.
0:07:18 Maybe we’ll talk about North Carolina again.
0:07:20 If Roy Cooper, who’s the governor there,
0:07:24 is her running mate, but you are seeing a joyfulness
0:07:27 and a hope of possibility and change.
0:07:32 And there’s been a ton of incredibly creative memes
0:07:35 that are out there, but there’s one that has four boxes.
0:07:39 And it has Obama in the cool–
0:07:42 I don’t know what the term is, but the filter, right,
0:07:43 that the hope and change poster was in,
0:07:45 like the blue, gray is the red.
0:07:47 So it says hope.
0:07:50 And then it has hate over Donald Trump.
0:07:52 And then it has heel over Joe Biden.
0:07:55 And then it has grow over Kamala Harris.
0:08:00 And I think people are feeling the potential for that growth.
0:08:03 And there’s an opportunity, I think,
0:08:06 to ignore a lot of her past policy positions.
0:08:10 And she has to get out there and just say,
0:08:12 you’ve heard a lot from me before.
0:08:15 I have talked about things that are impractical.
0:08:17 I’ve talked about Medicare for All.
0:08:19 I have talked about giving free health care to people
0:08:22 who are here that are undocumented.
0:08:26 I have talked about all sorts of incredibly liberal things
0:08:28 in the Green New Deal, for instance.
0:08:32 But I am part of the Biden-Harris administration.
0:08:35 And Joe Biden’s record is my record.
0:08:37 And this is how I plan to continue to govern,
0:08:39 let’s finish the job.
0:08:41 I mean, it’s amazing, the infrastructure that went to her,
0:08:44 you know, 1,300 people working on this campaign,
0:08:48 but also all of the mottos, let’s finish the job.
0:08:51 And if she can stick to that, I feel like we could do it.
0:08:56 We could pull off a total political miracle.
0:09:00 – You said something that I want to double click on
0:09:01 and that is she doesn’t play well
0:09:02 in some of the swing states.
0:09:03 Why is that?
0:09:05 ‘Cause my impression is she’s actually more moderate
0:09:08 or conservative than a lot of people.
0:09:11 I think initially think that they, I mean,
0:09:13 it categorizes like a California Democrat, very liberal.
0:09:16 She’s actually, you know, she’s an attorney general.
0:09:18 I think on economic issues, she’s pretty moderate.
0:09:20 Why doesn’t she play well?
0:09:25 – Well, she ran away from her attorney general background
0:09:30 and more towards her liberal side for the 2020 primary.
0:09:32 And she just got boxed out
0:09:35 by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who, you know,
0:09:38 Bernie Sanders is, you know, he’s the original thing, right?
0:09:42 He’s like the OG democratic socialist grump.
0:09:44 So he has his constituency.
0:09:45 And I think Elizabeth Warren is one
0:09:48 of the more talented politicians we’ve ever seen.
0:09:49 Yeah, ran an incredible race.
0:09:52 I went to her rally in Washington Square Park
0:09:54 and her policies were always to the left
0:09:58 of where I was, I wanted, I was wearing her t-shirt.
0:10:01 I wanted to rip it off, burn my bra, do all the things, right?
0:10:03 She just gets you going like that.
0:10:06 And so Kamala didn’t really have a lane
0:10:08 and she couldn’t get to where Amy Klobuchar
0:10:09 or Pete Buttigieg was, right?
0:10:11 You know, people were, I should say,
0:10:13 people actually from the Midwest advocating
0:10:15 for that kind of common sense stuff.
0:10:19 So she hasn’t run actually as a super cop before.
0:10:21 She’s only run away from it.
0:10:24 And the kind of kudos that she’s gotten the most
0:10:27 from her time in the Senate was when she was leaning into,
0:10:29 I’m the one who can prosecute the case.
0:10:33 Her grilling of Bill Barr, her grilling of Brett Kavanaugh.
0:10:34 So I think that’s a lot of the reason
0:10:37 that she hasn’t played well in those more moderate places.
0:10:41 I’m sure there is room as well for sexism and racism in this.
0:10:43 I mean, we’ve already seen it bubbling up.
0:10:47 And I was reading before we jumped on the line,
0:10:51 a missive out of meeting with congressional Republicans
0:10:54 and Senator, Republican Senator saying,
0:10:58 do not call her a DEI hire.
0:10:59 Do not do it.
0:11:00 Talk about her policies.
0:11:02 We can win this on policy.
0:11:04 But you know, you already have tape of J.D. Vance.
0:11:07 He called her like a crazy cat lady.
0:11:09 You know, if they’re gonna run on a platform of–
0:11:12 – Alone with cats, deeply unhappy with no kids and cats.
0:11:13 Yeah, okay.
0:11:16 – Right, when she has, I would say,
0:11:18 one of the more vibrant looking political marriages
0:11:21 I’ve ever witnessed, you know, people kissing on the mouth
0:11:22 and looking like they love it.
0:11:25 And she has two step kids and, you know,
0:11:28 if they’re going to be running on a platform of,
0:11:30 I’m not totally opposed to a national abortion ban.
0:11:31 And you know what?
0:11:33 We should look into IVF.
0:11:36 And then you’re calling her a lonely cat lady.
0:11:38 That’s not a recipe for success.
0:11:41 – When I heard the news, I was a mix of excitement,
0:11:45 sadness, relief, like almost like a cathartic release.
0:11:49 And the other emotion I had was one of intense gratitude
0:11:51 towards Secretary Clinton.
0:11:54 And while she didn’t shatter the glass ceiling,
0:11:56 I think she put enough cracks in it
0:11:57 that America has finally decided.
0:11:59 I think a lot of people look back and think,
0:12:02 “You know what, we should have voted for the woman.”
0:12:05 And I think that America really is ready,
0:12:07 and I hate to go into identity politics,
0:12:10 but it is going to play a role here.
0:12:11 But I think it’s gonna be a positive here.
0:12:14 I think America has decided its time,
0:12:16 or a lot of Americans have decided,
0:12:17 it’s time for a woman president.
0:12:21 I think a lot of that is credited from Secretary Clinton.
0:12:23 Do you have any thoughts?
0:12:25 – Any opportunity to praise Hillary Clinton,
0:12:27 I’m gonna jump right on that.
0:12:31 I think that she has created an environment
0:12:35 where we are now so used to seeing a woman
0:12:37 in a politically powerful position,
0:12:41 going back to even how she transformed being first lady
0:12:43 and what she did for keeping the country together
0:12:45 in the wake of her husband’s affair.
0:12:47 We don’t talk about that enough.
0:12:50 She had every reason to just be able to say,
0:12:52 “You know, I’m getting up, I’m leaving,
0:12:53 and I’m taking Chelsea with me.”
0:12:56 And the country would have completely crumbled.
0:12:59 And there is strength sometimes in sticking it out.
0:13:01 And I think she’s owed a debt of gratitude
0:13:02 on a whole host of levels.
0:13:06 She’s also been right about every single foreign policy issue.
0:13:10 But yes, I think that she deserves a lot of credit for that.
0:13:12 And Elizabeth Warren would say that as well,
0:13:14 that she could get seven, 8,000 people
0:13:16 to come out to a rally for hers,
0:13:18 because they’re used to the iconography
0:13:20 of a woman in these kinds of positions.
0:13:22 And Kamala Harris as well.
0:13:25 And it’s interesting because the candidate
0:13:27 who had the most overlap in terms of donors in 2020
0:13:30 from Secretary Clinton was Kamala Harris.
0:13:33 And a lot of Hillary’s really big bundlers
0:13:36 thought that she was the one to carry the torch.
0:13:38 And they were looking across the field.
0:13:41 And they had an Amy Klobuchar who I think the world of,
0:13:43 and frankly is more policy positioned
0:13:44 like the rest of the country,
0:13:46 but they went with Kamala.
0:13:48 And there was tremendous disappointment
0:13:52 that she didn’t translate to the national stage
0:13:54 in the way that they expected,
0:13:57 that her awkwardness was not embraced,
0:14:02 and that her joyfulness felt like insecurity
0:14:04 and inability to do the job.
0:14:07 And I think that that switch has flipped a bit now,
0:14:09 and that we do actually really want to,
0:14:11 going back to how you felt on Sunday,
0:14:13 to be leaning into joy.
0:14:17 Like when was the last time that we felt politically joyful?
0:14:21 But I do wanna double click on what you said about
0:14:25 the feeling of sadness when you heard that Biden was out.
0:14:27 I wrote about this for Fox
0:14:31 and talked about it on air that day.
0:14:36 I cried when I read that Joe Biden was pulling out
0:14:39 of the race because I know that he still,
0:14:42 he believes he can win this race.
0:14:44 He didn’t do this because he thought
0:14:46 that he wasn’t gonna be able to do it.
0:14:49 He did it because the pressure was mounting on him
0:14:51 to an unsustainable level,
0:14:53 and Nancy Pelosi had floated
0:14:55 that she was gonna go public with it.
0:14:57 – He was forced out, he didn’t leave on his own terms.
0:14:58 – He was forced out.
0:15:02 And that is one of the more fundamentally good people
0:15:05 that America has ever seen.
0:15:07 And I think that he really got,
0:15:09 even though it was the right decision in the end,
0:15:11 he really got a raw deal.
0:15:13 And I know that he will be greeted
0:15:16 at the convention rock star levels,
0:15:18 at least Obama levels.
0:15:21 And that we will remember his legacy
0:15:23 for everything he accomplished,
0:15:24 which is what it should be.
0:15:27 But it is so sad,
0:15:31 the way that this ended with him isolated in Rehoboth
0:15:34 with COVID, with people that he had worked with
0:15:37 for decades, people whose elections were probably owed
0:15:40 to him because he showed up in campaign for them,
0:15:43 whether it was in the 80s, 90s, 2010s,
0:15:47 any of it and just stabbing him in the back or in the front.
0:15:50 And it’s profoundly sad.
0:15:52 And it will feel that way for a long time.
0:15:54 And there are these incredible videos
0:15:57 that are all over Instagram and TikTok
0:16:00 of senior citizens talking about Joe Biden,
0:16:02 and that he was the greatest president
0:16:04 that we’ve ever had that he had.
0:16:05 There’s this one woman who’s making the case
0:16:08 that he combines all of the best qualities
0:16:12 of these democratic heroes that we’ve had over the years,
0:16:15 and that it really hit home for me.
0:16:20 And it deserves hanging on it for a while.
0:16:23 – I had the same emotion,
0:16:26 but here’s the thing that if you think it through,
0:16:29 and this made me feel better and hope it makes you feel better,
0:16:31 people won’t remember how long it took them
0:16:32 to make the decision.
0:16:34 They’ll remember the decision, right?
0:16:35 They won’t remember that he didn’t wanna leave
0:16:39 and he was in denial and a lot of his handlers
0:16:42 were sequestering him for obvious reasons now.
0:16:44 I’m always starting to get physically angry
0:16:46 at the staff of the White House
0:16:48 and be like, you really think you could hide this from us?
0:16:51 And then I was mad at myself for falling under this delusion
0:16:53 that everything might be all right.
0:16:57 But here’s the thing, for the rest of his life,
0:17:01 every room he walks into, he gets a standing ovation.
0:17:03 And his life, can you imagine what his life
0:17:06 would have been like the next four and a half years?
0:17:09 I think this is absolutely, in the short term,
0:17:10 probably devastating for him.
0:17:12 And over the medium and the long term,
0:17:17 the absolute best decision for President Biden.
0:17:19 I think this is, for him personally,
0:17:21 the best thing that could happen.
0:17:22 – I totally agree.
0:17:25 And I think it’s like anyone who is kind of going
0:17:28 into retirement, at least a little bit,
0:17:31 not of their choosing, that within six to 12 months,
0:17:33 they’re feeling pretty great, right?
0:17:35 And he has the last six months,
0:17:37 he says that his not sole focus,
0:17:41 but his main focus is going to be getting the hostages back
0:17:46 and negotiating a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.
0:17:48 And if he can get that done,
0:17:51 people have won no bells for less.
0:17:54 And he will be an icon.
0:17:58 And it wasn’t guaranteed on a legislative basis.
0:17:59 I think he deserves it, right?
0:18:03 I think the comparisons to what an LBJ was able to accomplish
0:18:08 are reasonable, but he wasn’t a personality icon.
0:18:10 He wasn’t a cult figure, like an Obama,
0:18:13 like a Bill Clinton, like a JFK.
0:18:16 And I think that those aviators now will live on, right?
0:18:18 In a way that we didn’t expect,
0:18:21 if he had a continued on and ended up
0:18:24 losing to Donald Trump in November, certainly.
0:18:28 Democrats are love power as much as Republicans.
0:18:30 I just think we have better ideas.
0:18:32 And we’re kinder and more concerned
0:18:35 with people who have less than the Republican party.
0:18:37 But of course, we’re mad for power.
0:18:40 And Nancy Pelosi is an incredible testament to all of that.
0:18:42 But I genuinely don’t believe
0:18:45 that people who have worked with him that long
0:18:47 and love him as much as they do
0:18:50 knew that the debate was how Joe Biden
0:18:52 is on a more regular basis.
0:18:56 And we’re still trying to pass him off as a fine candidate.
0:18:58 I take offense to that idea.
0:19:00 And maybe I’m just trying to save my own butt
0:19:02 because I was on TV telling people
0:19:04 that Joe Biden could do this job.
0:19:05 Look at him on the picket line
0:19:06 with the United Auto Workers.
0:19:08 Look at him in North Carolina.
0:19:09 Look at him in Detroit.
0:19:13 You know, the decline was precipitous.
0:19:16 And I don’t think that Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer,
0:19:19 Dick Durbin, people who genuinely love him,
0:19:22 knew that and it was some big charade
0:19:24 to fool the American people.
0:19:27 – And what’s interesting,
0:19:29 and I’m curious to get your thoughts about this,
0:19:31 is that age was the biggest issue in the campaign.
0:19:33 And I think it’s gonna remain the biggest issue,
0:19:34 but it’s flipped from being a liability
0:19:36 for Democrats to an asset.
0:19:39 I think you put a woman of color who’s 59
0:19:40 on stage with Donald Trump.
0:19:43 He is gonna look as old as Biden looked.
0:19:47 – And probably more incoherent at certain moments.
0:19:49 You know, I was in the room in Milwaukee
0:19:52 when he was giving his acceptance speech.
0:19:55 And there were 9,000 words of ad lib
0:19:58 and probably 6,000 that didn’t make any sense.
0:20:01 I worry though about Democrats kind of jumping
0:20:03 into the deep end with that argument.
0:20:05 I saw a lot of, and I smiled at them,
0:20:08 but a lot of snarky tweets right away saying,
0:20:09 oh my God, how could the Republicans have nominated
0:20:11 such an old guy?
0:20:12 Yikes.
0:20:16 You know, we did do a bad thing for a long time
0:20:20 and acted as if it wasn’t going to matter for people.
0:20:22 And the voters were continually telling us that,
0:20:24 that it did matter for them.
0:20:26 And I thought, Ezra Klein pointed that out.
0:20:27 And I thought it was such a smart point.
0:20:29 He said, the narrative right now
0:20:31 is that this was an elite’s cabal, right?
0:20:33 That they got together and they just decided
0:20:34 we want to get him out.
0:20:37 But the truth is, is that the elites were late to this.
0:20:41 It was regular that we’re telling us, right?
0:20:43 It’s completely the counter narrative.
0:20:45 Every survey was saying he’s too old.
0:20:47 He’s unfit to do this.
0:20:49 And these were Democrats who said, we’re gonna vote for him.
0:20:53 We’re gonna vote for a dead person over Donald Trump.
0:20:56 But in fact, it was those of us who were supposed to know
0:20:58 it all that were late to the game.
0:21:02 And I think that dose of humility is important
0:21:06 for people in quote, elite positions to have in all of this.
0:21:09 And to say, you know, you might not like
0:21:11 that there wasn’t a mini primary.
0:21:12 And I understand that.
0:21:14 And it was obviously Joe Biden’s wish that there wasn’t,
0:21:15 right?
0:21:17 He came out 20 minutes after the statement went out
0:21:19 and said, I’m endorsing Kamala Harris,
0:21:20 which basically cut everyone off.
0:21:23 And had other endorsements lined up clearly, right?
0:21:24 Oh yeah.
0:21:26 Well, they’d been prepping for ages,
0:21:30 but she did it in the most elegant way.
0:21:32 I could have expected anyone to.
0:21:34 And I think it’s such a credit to her
0:21:35 and the type of person that she is.
0:21:39 I mean, is there another human you could imagine
0:21:41 to be a better team player going through the last month
0:21:44 of politics than Kamala Harris?
0:21:45 They all were.
0:21:46 And I think that was smart.
0:21:47 I don’t think they had any choice
0:21:48 but to be seen as team players.
0:21:52 But just on this notion, I was, right after I heard,
0:21:55 I was the, quote unquote, in the competition camp.
0:21:56 And now I have fully,
0:21:58 and now I’ve just been overwhelmed
0:21:59 and I’m on board with a coronation.
0:22:01 But what are your thoughts on this notion?
0:22:04 And it’s kind of a moot point at this point
0:22:05 ’cause I do think it’s a coronation.
0:22:06 But do you think we would have been better off
0:22:10 with something resembling a competition debates and the like?
0:22:13 Well, I think it would have made great programming,
0:22:16 which is where my mind goes to all the time.
0:22:19 You know, we were musing that he should,
0:22:21 Biden should counter program the RNC, right?
0:22:23 Like, while Trump’s about to go on stage,
0:22:24 we’re like, you know what, I’ve reconsidered,
0:22:27 I’m getting off, you know, I’m getting out of the race.
0:22:31 I think that a mini primary would have served us well.
0:22:34 And there are a lot of people smarter than I am
0:22:36 who have figured out how you’d be able to do it.
0:22:39 I think if it was contained to just battleground states
0:22:42 and to give the people who actually determine
0:22:43 who’s gonna be our next president,
0:22:45 the chance to go see town halls
0:22:47 and have the delegates vote,
0:22:50 for instance, you know, have them listen to the people
0:22:52 that they represent, I think it would have been good.
0:22:56 And Dean Phillips, who was out front on all of this,
0:23:00 you know, was musing that it would just give an air
0:23:02 of appropriateness to everything.
0:23:04 And odds are actually that Kamala Harris
0:23:08 could have come out very likely, I think, as the winner.
0:23:11 And I think if you think, if you look at who Kamala Harris
0:23:13 has been the last three to four weeks,
0:23:16 I would put my money on her for that.
0:23:20 But the truth is we can’t afford another moment of infighting.
0:23:22 I mean, if you look at the damage
0:23:25 that has happened to the Democratic cause in all of this,
0:23:27 I think it made sense.
0:23:30 I also think it just makes sense
0:23:32 because she’s part of that administration.
0:23:35 You know, people say, oh, well, it’s not fair.
0:23:37 We voted for Joe Biden, not Kamala Harris.
0:23:39 Well, when he’s running for reelection,
0:23:41 you’re voting for the Biden-Harris ticket.
0:23:45 And she is the rightful heir to that ticket.
0:23:48 Her VP choice will obviously be a huge part of this.
0:23:51 I think all of the folks that they’ve asked
0:23:55 for their papers, for them to submit their packages
0:23:56 would be fabulous.
0:23:59 And it was interesting to see that Governor Walts
0:24:00 from Minnesota was on the list.
0:24:03 He was someone that I didn’t expect to be.
0:24:06 But you can’t really go wrong with those guys.
0:24:11 And, you know, we have limited time to be able to do this.
0:24:14 We have Trump and his folks, you know, on the back heel.
0:24:17 They are prepared for one candidate and one candidate only.
0:24:19 And now Joe Biden is not that candidate.
0:24:21 And so we just got to relish the moment
0:24:23 and run full steam ahead.
0:24:27 And it looks like everyone has gotten the memo more or less
0:24:29 that this is what we’re doing.
0:24:32 – So let’s talk about who would you want to be VP?
0:24:34 Who do you think’s going to be VP?
0:24:37 – So like I said, I’m actually thrilled
0:24:40 with all of the choices that are out there.
0:24:42 I think my gut would initially be,
0:24:43 I want Governor Shapiro.
0:24:47 I think that he is just a beacon of light
0:24:49 in all of this and has been–
0:24:51 – A beacon of light, that’s a nice thing to say.
0:24:53 – A beacon of light.
0:24:56 But I can’t help but be concerned
0:24:59 about him being Jewish.
0:25:01 And at this particular moment
0:25:03 with such a high dose of anti-Semitism,
0:25:07 especially within our party,
0:25:09 which is something that I hate about us,
0:25:13 that if you have a black woman at the top of the ticket
0:25:17 and a Jewish guy that there are too many opportunities
0:25:18 to be turned off.
0:25:19 – What about two women?
0:25:22 What if you had a, do you think the same fear holds
0:25:25 about having two women on the ticket?
0:25:27 – It does give me a little bit of anxiety.
0:25:28 I hate to say it.
0:25:30 I think she’s fantastic.
0:25:32 I think she’ll be an incredible candidate.
0:25:35 I’m sure she will run in 2028.
0:25:38 But it feels like the top is such an unsafe pick
0:25:42 at this moment that we should go for a bit more safety.
0:25:46 Roy Cooper, I think is the safest one out of all of this.
0:25:49 But Kelly is, Kelly has my heart
0:25:50 and he has the nation’s heart.
0:25:53 And I think that the strength
0:25:55 of also having Gabby Giffords out there
0:26:00 who is such a hero to everybody would be incredible.
0:26:03 And Arizona, we had basically relegated ourselves
0:26:05 back to just the blue wall,
0:26:08 but Arizona is ripe to keep
0:26:10 if we have the right combination.
0:26:12 And I think that Mark Kelly does that.
0:26:16 So right now my heart is in the Mark Kelly camp for sure.
0:26:18 And I think it makes a lot of strategic sense.
0:26:21 – So your background is in data science and messaging.
0:26:23 If you were advising the Harris campaign,
0:26:25 which I mentioned at some point you will be,
0:26:27 what do you think are the core messages
0:26:28 she should hone in on?
0:26:32 – That nothing changes.
0:26:34 That we are here to finish the job
0:26:37 and that she was proud to serve with Joe Biden.
0:26:39 I think that Joe Biden should be one of
0:26:42 the most commonly used phrases out of her mouth.
0:26:46 Because Joe Biden is personally a lot more popular
0:26:48 than he is politically to people.
0:26:50 They were never able to demonize him, right?
0:26:52 They were never able to convince people
0:26:54 that he was actually a mob boss.
0:26:58 I’m sure James Comer has been crying for 48 hours straight
0:27:00 since the announcement that he won’t get to have
0:27:02 his Hunter Biden investigations anymore
0:27:04 and all of that has evaporated.
0:27:07 But the American public loves Joe Biden.
0:27:10 And I think there’s opportunity also
0:27:13 to frame the economy, which you said,
0:27:15 who wouldn’t like this economy,
0:27:17 but to talk about the accomplishments
0:27:21 of the Biden-Harris administration out of a new messenger.
0:27:22 And she has been tight.
0:27:27 She has been pitch perfect in the last three to four weeks.
0:27:30 And so I think that she’s just basically
0:27:31 gotta take the playbook
0:27:33 and she has the same campaign manager.
0:27:37 She has the same campaign chairs as Joe Biden did.
0:27:38 And she’s gotta go out there
0:27:43 and do a Joe Biden impression with some coconut flair, right?
0:27:48 That’s what people are looking for at this moment.
0:27:52 And I think that she can define herself as different
0:27:54 in a lot of the personal moments,
0:27:56 certainly talking about reproductive health,
0:27:58 where I did feel that he struggled to do that.
0:28:02 And some of that is just that men talking about it
0:28:04 doesn’t really hit as hard.
0:28:08 So her doing that, voting rights, galvanizing Gen Z
0:28:10 and millennial voters.
0:28:12 But be proud of what you’ve accomplished.
0:28:16 And Joe Biden picked her out of a huge field
0:28:19 of possible VPs and he did it for a reason.
0:28:23 And if the listeners haven’t heard Joe Biden’s call
0:28:26 into now, Kamala HQ from Monday,
0:28:27 they should go back and listen to it.
0:28:30 But there’s this very sweet exchange where Kamala says,
0:28:32 – You guys heard it from Doug’s voice.
0:28:34 We love Joe and Jill.
0:28:35 We really do.
0:28:37 They truly are like family to us.
0:28:37 – Four weeks.
0:28:39 – And we do everybody here though.
0:28:40 (audience cheering)
0:28:41 – It’s mutual.
0:28:43 (laughing)
0:28:44 – I knew you were still there.
0:28:46 You’re not going anywhere, Joe.
0:28:48 – I’m watching you, kid.
0:28:49 I’m watching you, kid.
0:28:50 I love you.
0:28:52 – I love you, Joe.
0:28:54 It felt like it was supposed to.
0:28:55 – Yeah, it felt real.
0:28:57 – Yeah, totally.
0:28:59 – Yeah, the positioning I would go with
0:29:03 is I’m a prosecutor, he’s a felon.
0:29:05 And I would just be relentless.
0:29:07 I would say as attorney general of California,
0:29:11 I put 740 pedophiles in prison.
0:29:14 And then I would just show, overlay that with the voice over
0:29:18 with a ton of images of Trump and Epstein.
0:29:21 And then I’d move on to, as AG,
0:29:23 I stuck 300 people in for white collar crime.
0:29:26 And I would show Peter Navarro being sentenced.
0:29:30 For racketeering, I put, and then I’d show my,
0:29:32 I would just literally go–
0:29:34 – The for-profit college scams.
0:29:35 – Oh my gosh.
0:29:36 – Yeah, he’s done everything.
0:29:38 – I shut down all these degree mills,
0:29:40 but had I been in New York,
0:29:41 I would have shut down a degree mill
0:29:42 called Trump University.
0:29:45 I would just, beyond the prosecutor, he’s the felon.
0:29:47 I think it’s absolutely gonna deposition,
0:29:49 put them on their heels,
0:29:52 and they just won’t know how to respond.
0:29:54 – So I wanna add to that quickly,
0:29:56 ’cause I know that we have gone over as well.
0:29:57 I totally agree with you.
0:29:58 I think if there is a debate,
0:30:01 that contrast, old versus young,
0:30:03 convict versus cop is important.
0:30:05 But you need to also keep in mind
0:30:06 that we’re talking about swing voters.
0:30:09 So those are base plays.
0:30:12 But swing voters are going to vote on the traditional stuff.
0:30:14 So they’re gonna be voting on the economy.
0:30:17 And there are some of them who are very concerned
0:30:20 about the border, and she was in charge
0:30:23 of our relationship with Central American countries.
0:30:25 We’re not supposed to call her the borders are,
0:30:27 but that is what she has been framed as.
0:30:30 So I think that if we move too hard
0:30:34 into what folks in the heartland feel are ancillary issues
0:30:36 that we risk coming off as unserious.
0:30:38 So I want all of that,
0:30:40 but I really want her to go hard
0:30:42 on the stuff that they’ve accomplished.
0:30:47 Like, your insulin costs $35 because of me and Joe Biden.
0:30:52 And also I’m a cop, and I would have put this guy in jail.
0:30:55 So it’s a line to walk carefully,
0:30:58 but it has to be balanced.
0:31:01 – Jessica Tarloff is a political analyst and co-host
0:31:03 on the five Fox’s weeknight news program.
0:31:05 She joins us from her home in Tribeca.
0:31:08 It’s great to have you back on the ground,
0:31:09 Jessica back in New York,
0:31:12 and we’ll look forward to catching up soon.
0:31:14 – Perfect, thanks for having me.
0:31:16 – We’ll be right back for our conversation
0:31:17 with Chris Foss.
0:31:21 Support for Prophecy comes from Greenlight.
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0:31:26 and think, wait, I thought it was supposed to be
0:31:29 the time to relax when you’re a parent.
0:31:31 Time just flies by without you realizing it.
0:31:33 And in that time, your kids get older
0:31:34 and hopefully a little wiser.
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0:31:37 learn some new skills this summer,
0:31:39 you might want to try Greenlight.
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0:32:05 The best endorsement I can give here
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0:32:12 Sign up for Greenlight today and get your first month free
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0:32:24 Support for Prop G comes from Quince.
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0:32:28 “Why did I buy that?”
0:32:30 If you said yes, my friend, you are not alone.
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0:33:30 My dad works in B2B marketing,
0:33:32 but I never really knew what that meant.
0:33:35 Then one day my dad came by my school for career day
0:33:39 and told everyone in my class he was a big row ass man.
0:33:41 Then he just kept saying things like
0:33:43 the bigger the row ass the better.
0:33:45 Over and over.
0:33:47 My friends still laugh at me to this day.
0:33:51 I think it means calculating a return on ad spend.
0:33:52 One thing’s for sure.
0:33:55 I’ll be known as the row ass man’s kid
0:33:56 for the rest of my days.
0:33:59 Why can’t you just be a fireman or a lawyer?
0:34:01 Why?
0:34:02 You ruined my life dad.
0:34:04 Not everyone gets B2B,
0:34:06 but LinkedIn has the people who do.
0:34:08 And with ads on LinkedIn,
0:34:10 you’ll be able to reach people based on job title,
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0:34:16 into high quality leads today.
0:34:17 We’ll even give you a hundred dollar credit
0:34:19 on your next ad campaign.
0:34:22 Go to LinkedIn.com/Scott to claim your credit.
0:34:24 That’s LinkedIn.com/Scott.
0:34:25 Terms and conditions apply.
0:34:28 LinkedIn, the place to be, to be.
0:34:33 (upbeat music)
0:34:40 – Welcome back.
0:34:41 Here’s our conversation with Chris Voss,
0:34:43 the CEO and co-founder of Black Swan Group
0:34:47 and former lead FBI hostage negotiator.
0:34:49 Chris, where does this podcast find you?
0:34:51 – I’m at my house in Vegas.
0:34:53 – You live in Vegas?
0:34:55 – I’m willing to admit that.
0:34:57 – So let’s jump right into it.
0:35:01 You tweeted recently as a lead former hostage negotiator
0:35:02 in the FBI, I will say with certainty
0:35:04 that the level of manipulation by the mainstream media
0:35:06 should not be overlooked when we look back
0:35:09 on what exactly led to this moment.
0:35:11 And you were referring to the failed,
0:35:13 attempted assassination of Trump.
0:35:15 What did you mean by that?
0:35:17 – Well, principally, you know,
0:35:18 I thought about when I put that up
0:35:22 and also since at the point of fact,
0:35:25 I believe the media professional wants to go.
0:35:28 And sort of across the board,
0:35:33 it’s really become accepted in any interviews.
0:35:37 Somebody sticks a microphone, somebody’s face and said,
0:35:39 “Can you believe so-and-so said this about you?”
0:35:41 And it’s a little bit like,
0:35:44 I remember doing this when I was in college,
0:35:45 trying to instigate a couple of my friends
0:35:48 into getting into a confrontation.
0:35:49 Can you believe that he said that?
0:35:51 Are you gonna take that?
0:35:53 You know, this instigating that comes from the side
0:35:57 and if we have some reliance on the media overall,
0:35:59 we don’t think of them as instigators.
0:36:02 You know, then just like when I was whispering
0:36:04 when my friends here, people say to themselves,
0:36:07 “Yeah, you know, yeah, that’s right.”
0:36:09 And it’s an incitement.
0:36:11 Unfortunately, I said, “They’re instigators.”
0:36:14 When I was with the FBI,
0:36:17 I was preparing for gathering the G20 in Canada,
0:36:20 I believe it was at the time.
0:36:23 And they’re talking about the preparations
0:36:26 for the predictable demonstrations.
0:36:29 And so in preparation for the crowd,
0:36:32 they said for the gathering, they said,
0:36:35 “You can put 1,000 peaceful demonstrators in place,
0:36:35 “1,000.”
0:36:41 And then you just put six professional instigators around
0:36:44 in strategic locations.
0:36:45 And it’ll take a peaceful demonstration
0:36:48 in a term until a violent mob.
0:36:49 Six people.
0:36:52 And I’ve really been thinking about this a lot.
0:36:56 Unfortunately, the media’s professional instigators
0:37:01 and they look for the opportunity called gasoline
0:37:06 on smoldering coals and hopefully turn it into a fly.
0:37:09 And in point of fact, it’s a contributing factor.
0:37:13 – I like the framing there that they’re sort of,
0:37:15 they’re in the business of instigating
0:37:18 or taking the heat up, not taking it down.
0:37:21 I would say that’s the same as true online, but even worse.
0:37:23 If I look at my comments in my feed
0:37:24 on social media platforms,
0:37:26 it feels like it’s a bunch of people in the third grade
0:37:29 surrounding two kids who are barely even having words
0:37:32 and then screaming, “Fight, fight, fight.”
0:37:34 And I wonder, and I’m curious what your thoughts are,
0:37:38 that if I were a bad actor, a foreign entity,
0:37:40 the GRU or the CCP,
0:37:42 I would absolutely employ the strategy
0:37:44 to just get us fighting with each other.
0:37:46 – Yeah, well, we’d do it.
0:37:50 It’s kind of the, there are no markets of Queensborough rules
0:37:51 on international combat.
0:37:54 I mean, the intelligence agencies globally
0:37:55 are always trying to stir up discontent
0:37:59 within the camps of the enemy to keep them confused
0:38:02 so that they don’t get riled against us.
0:38:04 – So let’s get back to,
0:38:05 how do you think the U.S. government
0:38:07 should be negotiating with nations at war?
0:38:08 What advice would you have?
0:38:11 Biden has essentially said that he’s gonna focus
0:38:13 a lot of his energy on his remaining time
0:38:15 on trying to end the war in the Middle East
0:38:16 and bring the hostages home.
0:38:19 What advice would you have for him,
0:38:20 or generally speaking in the U.S.,
0:38:25 as it tries to negotiate with nations that they’re at war?
0:38:28 (laughs)
0:38:31 – Everything you’ve been doing up to now has been stupid.
0:38:36 Unfortunately, argument has become a synonym for negotiation.
0:38:40 And it’s a horrible synonym.
0:38:41 It shouldn’t be there.
0:38:44 People just want to make arguments.
0:38:47 And that’s advocated principally by lawyers.
0:38:48 You know, lawyers want to make arguments
0:38:50 to call themselves negotiators.
0:38:52 We don’t have any better models in many cases
0:38:54 other than lawyers that make arguments.
0:38:58 And great negotiation is invisible, so you don’t see it.
0:39:01 The only time Biden ever did anything foreign policy-wise
0:39:03 that I was really impressed by,
0:39:06 and he did it very early in the administration.
0:39:07 So what governments should do
0:39:09 is not let the other side get caught off guard
0:39:11 if you’re gonna say something they don’t like.
0:39:13 And Biden was gonna make a statement
0:39:18 recognizing the genocide of the Armenians, I believe,
0:39:22 which is largely placed at the,
0:39:25 the blame is placed at the feet of the Turks.
0:39:29 And what he did was he let the leader of Turkey know it was coming.
0:39:32 You know, we’re gonna say this.
0:39:33 You’re not gonna like it.
0:39:35 Don’t want you to get caught off guard by it.
0:39:38 And the president of Turkey’s response
0:39:40 was remarkably muted.
0:39:42 And there were professional instigators in the media
0:39:43 who said, “Can you believe he said that?”
0:39:45 You know, what do you think about Biden
0:39:48 saying his place in his blame model?
0:39:52 And he’d been warned that advance.
0:39:55 So he wasn’t, he wasn’t upset about it.
0:39:58 It didn’t turn into a flame
0:40:01 that the media was trying to get it to turn into the argument.
0:40:04 You know, the kids around the other kids in the school,
0:40:06 you’re going, “Fight, fight, fight.”
0:40:11 So very few politicians have really taken a cue from that
0:40:14 to at least, if you’re gonna say something
0:40:17 that you can’t apart, it’s not gonna like,
0:40:19 then don’t let him get caught off guard.
0:40:21 At least don’t blindside him.
0:40:25 And I think that’s probably the first move international.
0:40:27 People wanna be warned when bad news is coming.
0:40:31 It’s one of the basic tenets of the black swan method
0:40:31 day to day.
0:40:34 You know, I might have something negative to say.
0:40:36 I want you to be able to brace yourself
0:40:37 before I say it in advance.
0:40:38 How do I do that?
0:40:40 We don’t feel attacked.
0:40:43 How do you feel, I’m just trying to tell the truth.
0:40:46 Again, to make analogy to what’s going on
0:40:47 in the media and social media today,
0:40:50 there’s a great seeking for truth.
0:40:53 There’s truth seekers and truth tellers.
0:40:57 And a lot of people disguised as truth tellers
0:40:58 are really just level in accusations.
0:41:00 But some of the people who have been around
0:41:02 for a long time are really just,
0:41:03 you know, let’s stop the accusations.
0:41:06 Let’s start thinking about what’s the truth.
0:41:08 Let’s try to speak the truth.
0:41:10 And if you can say it in the way the other side
0:41:13 is not offended by, then you’re probably on the right track.
0:41:16 – Something you said sort of resonates
0:41:19 where I think has relevance with relationships.
0:41:20 I’ve always thought that the thing
0:41:21 that really puts a strain on relationships
0:41:23 is not bad news, but surprises.
0:41:26 Like it’s one thing when, all right,
0:41:28 the investments have gone really bad
0:41:29 and you’re in charge of the investments.
0:41:33 But what I think people get really upset with
0:41:35 is they’ve been bad for a year
0:41:36 and they’ve been getting worse.
0:41:38 You waited until now to tell me.
0:41:40 Do you think a lot of this can be
0:41:43 as relevance with personal relationships?
0:41:44 – Yeah, absolutely.
0:41:48 I see all this is relevant to personal relationships.
0:41:52 Negotiations is relevant to personal relationships.
0:41:53 We hear all the time,
0:41:56 never split the differences, great parenting book.
0:41:58 I hear back from women.
0:42:00 That for the first time my husband,
0:42:03 it feels like my husband’s listening to me.
0:42:05 And then, so first of all,
0:42:06 what does it mean to actually listen?
0:42:10 And then secondly, like how do we eliminate the surprises
0:42:11 from the other side?
0:42:14 People are remarkably resilient
0:42:15 and they’re not getting caught off guard.
0:42:17 And it doesn’t take a lot.
0:42:20 And fortunately, people blind side of the people
0:42:21 not out of bad intent
0:42:24 because they don’t know how to tell the truth
0:42:27 or they’re trying to fix the problem
0:42:29 so that it never hits the other person.
0:42:32 So it’s never, it’s rarely
0:42:35 is it as a result of a bad heart, if you will.
0:42:37 These are mistakes in the head, not at the heart
0:42:38 ’cause people just don’t know.
0:42:42 You know, if I could just warn you it was coming
0:42:44 then you could brace yourself.
0:42:46 – I wanna put forward a thesis.
0:42:47 I wanna get back to geopolitics
0:42:48 and have you respond to it.
0:42:52 I think that not only when you’re negotiating,
0:42:54 I have to recognize you’re not just negotiating
0:42:55 on the current situation,
0:42:57 but you’re setting a tone or an atmosphere
0:42:59 or incentives for future negotiations.
0:43:02 And the thing that just really bothered me
0:43:04 about the Brittany Griner deal was I thought
0:43:06 I personally believe the moment we cut that deal
0:43:09 and traded, it was loosely called or accurately called
0:43:12 the Merchant of Death, Victor Bude,
0:43:17 that basically that day Evan Gershkovic was taken prisoner,
0:43:18 that we created an incentive structure
0:43:22 that we would trade quite frankly someone more,
0:43:25 I don’t wanna say valuable, but that had more,
0:43:27 should have been imprisoned a lot longer,
0:43:29 that we just set up an incentive such that
0:43:34 we guaranteed more Americans would be falsely imprisoned.
0:43:36 What are your thoughts?
0:43:38 – Well, so first of all, Brittany Griner
0:43:39 was absolutely entitled to have the US government
0:43:44 come to her aid as when I was the lead
0:43:46 international kidnapping negotiator,
0:43:49 and Brittany Griner saying it was an illegal detention
0:43:52 as opposed to kidnapping, there are differences.
0:43:55 But in any event, no American citizen
0:43:56 should be abandoned overseas.
0:44:00 No matter how they got themselves into it,
0:44:04 in international kidnapping, people will mostly just do it.
0:44:07 Ill-advised behavior, they’ll put themselves
0:44:11 in really bad positions, trying to trade on
0:44:15 a form of carotery international that was never there.
0:44:18 And I don’t believe that Brittany Griner,
0:44:21 she may have made a minor mistake,
0:44:24 but she’s entitled to have the government come to her aid
0:44:25 and do it again and can’t for it.
0:44:27 So first point there,
0:44:30 I’m absolutely in support of the government out there.
0:44:33 So now let’s get onto the stupidity of the trade.
0:44:37 Once the instigators got going in the media,
0:44:42 then increased pressure on the Biden administration,
0:44:44 cut a deal, cut a deal, cut a deal,
0:44:46 then it’s a matter of patience.
0:44:49 When the other side’s more patient than you are,
0:44:53 and the instigators are putting the heat on you,
0:44:55 then they can lay back.
0:44:58 And I don’t think the, I think it was a poor trade,
0:45:01 I think, and I don’t think the Biden administration
0:45:06 has got the market is holding the monopoly on bad trades.
0:45:09 The Obama administration made bad trades.
0:45:12 The Trump administration made bad trades.
0:45:14 You know, I thought it was horrible that,
0:45:21 that they beat us in the deal when the AWOL soldier,
0:45:23 the Obama administration swapped out five members
0:45:26 of the Taliban who were being held in Guantanamo
0:45:29 for an American soldier that had gone AWOL.
0:45:32 Now that American soldier deserved help
0:45:33 regardless of how he went AWOL.
0:45:35 It was a bad trade.
0:45:37 The Trump administration out there,
0:45:38 the Obama administration,
0:45:42 when they put 5,000 Taliban back on the battlefield
0:45:44 because they were in a hurry to make a deal.
0:45:47 Anytime a government is in a hurry to make a deal,
0:45:49 all the other side has to do is sit back
0:45:51 and let time work against them.
0:45:54 And so the Britney Grinder thing was no different.
0:45:56 It was a bad trade.
0:46:00 And then the nature of the bad trade,
0:46:03 not the nature of the fact that a trade was made.
0:46:04 The nature of the bad trade
0:46:07 is what encouraged the poor negotiation
0:46:09 which sets up further negotiations.
0:46:11 You know, one of my favorite movies,
0:46:13 “Bridge of Spies,” Tom Hanks.
0:46:14 – Love it.
0:46:17 – We engage in the same kind of trades.
0:46:20 And as portrayed in the movie,
0:46:23 the American negotiator depicted by Tom Hanks
0:46:25 got the better of the other side.
0:46:27 And got the better of the other side in the Russians.
0:46:28 Same type of trade.
0:46:30 It wasn’t that the negotiations were bad.
0:46:32 It was how good were the negotiators at the table.
0:46:37 And not only did Tom Hanks, the character,
0:46:38 and forgive me for not remembering
0:46:40 the real-life name of the guy,
0:46:43 who I have tremendous admiration for,
0:46:45 he turned around and cut great deals with Cuba,
0:46:47 getting massively.
0:46:50 We beat the hell out of the Cubans
0:46:53 in the negotiations after the Bay of Pigs.
0:46:57 So it’s not a negotiation itself that’s the problem.
0:47:00 It’s the level of ability of the negotiators at the table.
0:47:03 – The negotiation everyone’s talking about
0:47:05 is the negotiation with Putin
0:47:07 and the negotiation with Hamas, right?
0:47:09 Well, if I think of the two highest-profile negotiations,
0:47:12 maybe that’s true in American-centric lens.
0:47:15 But one with Putin, you have an autocrat
0:47:17 who’s not worried about not being reelected,
0:47:21 and you have a nation that has just, as a confidence,
0:47:23 an incredible ability to endure hardship
0:47:24 and suffering.
0:47:29 I find, in terms of Russian history,
0:47:31 it’s pretty difficult to put pressure on Russia.
0:47:33 They don’t scare easily.
0:47:35 They’re willing to put their own people
0:47:37 through a lot of pain and suffering here.
0:47:40 So I’d love to get your thoughts there.
0:47:41 And then as it relates to Hamas,
0:47:42 I even see a bigger challenge,
0:47:45 and that is you’re not even sure who you’re negotiating with
0:47:47 or how you even open lines of negotiation
0:47:50 and who can even enforce the rules
0:47:51 or outcomes of that negotiation.
0:47:53 I’d love to give your thoughts
0:47:56 or get your thoughts on both of those dynamics.
0:47:58 – I would agree with some of what you said
0:48:00 about Putin and Russia.
0:48:04 I mean, I think the guy does worry about getting reelected,
0:48:07 which is why he puts so much effort into it.
0:48:09 I don’t think that Russians would agree
0:48:11 if you said that the elections were rigged.
0:48:14 You know, they spawned openly.
0:48:18 He’s a nationalist, and globally,
0:48:21 nationalists are gaining a lot of influence.
0:48:24 Populist nationalist leaders.
0:48:28 You know, they’re a thousand percent in favor
0:48:30 of what’s in the best interest of our country.
0:48:32 It’s sweeping Europe.
0:48:35 It’s the reason that Trump is as popular as he is.
0:48:39 He’s pro his homeland.
0:48:42 Russia has shown the ability to endure.
0:48:43 What have they had to endure?
0:48:44 They’ve been invaded more times
0:48:46 than they’ve invaded other countries.
0:48:49 They’ve been invaded by Japan multiple times.
0:48:52 They’ve been invaded by various European countries
0:48:53 multiple times.
0:48:54 They’ve been invaded more
0:48:56 than they’ve invaded other countries.
0:48:59 They’ve got, they don’t have the natural land barriers,
0:49:01 geographical protections the United States had.
0:49:06 We get the most envious geographical setup on earth.
0:49:10 You cannot come at us without us either seeing you
0:49:13 or you have to cross ridiculously difficult terrain.
0:49:16 Can’t come at us from the north, east to the west.
0:49:18 Can’t come, you know, if you want to try to come at us
0:49:21 from the south, you can work your way through Latin America.
0:49:25 It’s not, it’s not, there aren’t great ports down there.
0:49:28 Russia, on the other hand, has got land bridges
0:49:30 that makes it extremely easy to get at it.
0:49:34 Their natural resources are not high.
0:49:38 I once saw, I read at the beginning of the Ukraine war
0:49:41 that somebody dismissively of Russia said,
0:49:43 “Russia is just Europe’s gas station.”
0:49:45 All right, empathy.
0:49:47 How does that look to the other side?
0:49:49 I think that was McCain, it might have been.
0:49:51 All right, so if that’s true,
0:49:53 you’re the leader of a country
0:49:55 that your principal way to feed your people
0:49:58 is an industry the entire world is trying to stop using.
0:50:02 So empathy is about not necessarily agreeing
0:50:03 with the actions of the other side,
0:50:06 but understanding where they’re coming from
0:50:09 and being able to say it to them out loud.
0:50:12 Nobody has, you know, the Western European leaders,
0:50:13 the president of France showed up
0:50:15 and had audiences with Putin.
0:50:17 I promise you that all that guy then,
0:50:19 if they got a direct meeting with him,
0:50:21 was telling him why he was wrong.
0:50:25 As opposed to, all right, so here’s what your problems are.
0:50:28 You get invaded, you got no natural defenses.
0:50:30 You’re worried about whether or not you can feed your people.
0:50:32 You’re worried about your people starving
0:50:34 in the cold and the dark.
0:50:37 Let’s talk about what the problems are
0:50:38 on a different solution,
0:50:40 but nobody’s approached them like that.
0:50:44 So I think what Russia’s done in regards to Ukraine
0:50:45 is absolutely wrong.
0:50:49 War is an environmental catastrophe,
0:50:52 little on a humanitarian catastrophe.
0:50:54 But a little bit starts with, all right,
0:50:56 so here’s your motivations.
0:50:58 Here’s why you’re doing what you’re doing.
0:51:00 Now let’s potentially talk about a different course of action,
0:51:02 ’cause as soon as you start talking to somebody
0:51:04 about what their motivations are,
0:51:05 getting it out in the open air,
0:51:07 it helps them clear their head.
0:51:12 And maybe see war is a short-term catastrophe,
0:51:16 whereas economic collaboration is a long-term solution.
0:51:18 So that kind of might take on Russia.
0:51:21 Now, as I continue to babble on,
0:51:25 there’s a massive amount of influence on Hamas who cut it.
0:51:28 All the negotiations are kind of going on through there.
0:51:31 Some of the Hamas leaders are hanging out at cut.
0:51:35 And if you really want to talk to Hamas,
0:51:37 even if you’re an American diplomat,
0:51:39 you’re going to cut it.
0:51:41 So there’s ways to influence them.
0:51:45 The real difference, in my view,
0:51:47 and I was listening to Jared Kushner
0:51:50 giving an interview about the Abraham Accords,
0:51:54 and the problem with Hamas,
0:51:57 and why they didn’t participate in the Abraham Accords,
0:51:59 and the pro-Palestinian peoples will say,
0:52:01 “Well, we weren’t given a seat at the table.”
0:52:04 You could have had a seat at the table
0:52:07 if you’d have paid table stakes.
0:52:11 And table stakes for that negotiation was,
0:52:14 everybody that comes to the table gets to keep their job.
0:52:17 You cannot come to the table saying,
0:52:20 “I’m going to put you out of business.
0:52:22 You have to agree that the other side
0:52:23 gets to keep their job.”
0:52:25 Hamas has not been willing to say
0:52:27 the Israelis can keep their job.
0:52:29 All the Abraham Accords,
0:52:31 all the Sunni Muslim countries,
0:52:34 it’s signed off to collaborate with Israel.
0:52:36 They all said, “Do you know what?
0:52:40 If you’re willing to negotiate with me in peace
0:52:41 and look for an economic settlement
0:52:43 where we can all thrive,
0:52:46 you get to keep your job.”
0:52:49 And Hamas has not been willing to say that,
0:52:52 and it’s not that they haven’t been invited to the table.
0:52:54 They refuse to pay the table stakes.
0:52:57 – And in this case, the table stakes are,
0:52:58 when you say get to keep your job,
0:53:02 you mean saying that we’re not gonna be totally
0:53:05 100% committed to exterminating your people?
0:53:07 Is that what you’re referring to as table stakes?
0:53:12 – Yeah, yeah, and even in even larger terms,
0:53:15 that’s the first time the United States
0:53:16 has been willing to make that agreement.
0:53:19 When the Second Iraq War started,
0:53:25 and it’s easy to criticize it in hindsight,
0:53:28 it’s a bad moment, and I’m not gonna go there.
0:53:33 But I do remember President Bush giving an address
0:53:35 to the American people and saying,
0:53:40 this is the opportunity to bring democracy to the Netherlands.
0:53:44 And what he didn’t know that he was saying at the time was,
0:53:47 he was saying to all the Middle Eastern leaders,
0:53:50 none of whom are democracies.
0:53:54 If my goal is for you to lose your job,
0:53:56 because you’re not a democracy
0:53:58 and you’re gonna have to subject yourself
0:54:00 to the whims of the votes,
0:54:02 just like all the Western European countries
0:54:04 to everybody else.
0:54:07 And you gotta, if you wanna collaborate with us,
0:54:09 we’re gonna bring democracy to your country,
0:54:12 you’re gonna lose your job, and that was a mistake.
0:54:14 So the other thing about the brilliance
0:54:16 of the Abraham Accords and the Accords
0:54:20 in that particular negotiation was the agreement,
0:54:21 you get to keep your job.
0:54:23 If you come to the table and negotiate with us,
0:54:28 that’s a good faith, and so it’s obvious with Hamas,
0:54:31 but America has made this mistake
0:54:33 a number of times in the past.
0:54:35 We didn’t realize what we were saying.
0:54:38 I wanna bring democracy to your country, your monarchy.
0:54:40 The person on the other side is here,
0:54:43 and I’m gonna lose my job.
0:54:44 Why should I do that?
0:54:47 – Well, let’s get back specifically to,
0:54:50 Biden has said he wants to bring the hostage to something.
0:54:51 My understanding is there’s still five Americans
0:54:53 being held hostage.
0:54:56 I’m not even sure we understand this proof of life or not,
0:55:00 but obviously it’s a priority for American,
0:55:03 the American government to get those five hostages home.
0:55:04 Let’s go back to that.
0:55:06 What advice or what are the atmospherics here
0:55:10 to try and successfully bring these folks home?
0:55:13 – So first of all, if I could say,
0:55:14 when I was a hostage initiator,
0:55:17 our open principles were you can’t negotiate
0:55:19 in the middle of a riot or a gunfight.
0:55:24 And it looks very much like the gunfight’s still going on.
0:55:27 So to expect effective negotiations in the short term
0:55:28 in the middle of a gunfight,
0:55:31 you gotta get the gunfight stopped.
0:55:32 Now, what’s the inducement for you to decide
0:55:34 to stop the gunfight?
0:55:39 Ultimately, it’s the people that are supporting them,
0:55:44 the economic harm of violence,
0:55:47 as opposed to the economic prosperity of peace.
0:55:52 And Hamas continues to stay in the gunfight
0:55:55 because of the support they’re getting globally.
0:55:58 You know, they’re winning the PR war.
0:56:01 They’re intentionally putting their people in harm’s way.
0:56:06 I don’t think we’re getting accurate reports in the media
0:56:09 of how upset, how tired the Palestinians are
0:56:13 of being human shields for Hamas
0:56:14 and getting their people killed.
0:56:17 You know, they got a hostage rescue in a residential area.
0:56:23 And all sorts of quote, innocent people are killed
0:56:26 by the Israelis that come in on the hostage rescue.
0:56:29 Well, how do those innocent people get placed in harm’s way?
0:56:33 You know, Hamas is sacrificing Palestinians
0:56:35 by the tens of thousands to gain world support
0:56:38 and they’re getting their world support.
0:56:40 So, you know, what are the kids standing around
0:56:42 and shouting in yellow?
0:56:44 There’s the Biden administration.
0:56:46 Their challenge in getting the hostages back
0:56:50 is to calm the rancor that’s blaming Israel
0:56:54 for a current bloody conflict that they didn’t start.
0:56:57 That begins to change the perspective of the leadership
0:56:59 or the one in the PR war.
0:57:01 Hamas is one in the PR war right now.
0:57:04 That’s what’s keeping them engaged in what they’re doing.
0:57:10 I’d love your thoughts on how to take some of these skills
0:57:14 and apply them to your relationship with your spouse
0:57:17 and then I’d love to hear, do you have kids, Chris?
0:57:18 I got grandkids.
0:57:20 You got grandkids, okay.
0:57:24 I would love specifically to hear lessons to your younger self
0:57:28 or a new father on how you can apply these skills
0:57:32 to enhance your relationship with your kids.
0:57:33 Wow.
0:57:36 Okay, where did we begin?
0:57:37 There was a lot of good stuff there.
0:57:41 Yeah, it goes from Hamas to more unreasonable third parties
0:57:42 when we’re talking about teenagers.
0:57:46 But let’s start with using this as a means
0:57:50 of establishing better rules of engagement with your spouse.
0:57:54 Well, here’s a problem with spouse and children.
0:57:57 We’ve conditioned them that we’re not listening.
0:58:03 So parents and spouses, we want to flip over to either continue
0:58:07 to ask our list of questions to make it sound like we’re listening
0:58:10 and interested or give an advice.
0:58:15 And a lot of moms start to report that the use
0:58:18 of the mirroring skill got their teenage daughters
0:58:21 to talk to them for the first time in years.
0:58:23 So what’s a typical interaction?
0:58:25 A kid comes home from school.
0:58:27 How is your dad?
0:58:29 Kid answers.
0:58:31 A parent goes immediately to the next question.
0:58:33 Well, what that makes a kid feel like
0:58:34 is that they weren’t listening to her.
0:58:38 Now, a parent is taught show interest.
0:58:41 You know, I got a checklist to show interest
0:58:43 so I can get back to my life.
0:58:46 It’s like a person in the media doing an interview.
0:58:47 They got a list of questions.
0:58:48 They’re going to run through the questions.
0:58:51 They’re not going to pay attention to the answers.
0:58:54 And then they’re going to move on.
0:58:56 So how is your day?
0:58:59 Kid’s been conditioned that mom or dad ain’t going to listen.
0:59:02 So they’re going to say, fine, or I forget.
0:59:04 Because they’re not going to get interrogated over that.
0:59:06 I forget is the best one.
0:59:08 I forget.
0:59:08 What are you doing?
0:59:09 I forget.
0:59:10 And then they move on.
0:59:12 Well, and the parents are like, you know,
0:59:13 why won’t my kid talk to me?
0:59:16 Well, you got your list of questions.
0:59:17 You ain’t listening.
0:59:20 You’ve conditioned them that you’re not going to listen.
0:59:23 The people in our family, we’ve conditioned each other
0:59:24 that we’re not listening.
0:59:26 So the tiny little two millimeter shift
0:59:30 that moms are telling us constantly.
0:59:31 Why was your day?
0:59:32 I forget.
0:59:34 If you’re going to marry that, what’d you say?
0:59:36 You forget?
0:59:38 Not accusatory.
0:59:41 But to just repeat what the person said confirms
0:59:44 that you heard and you listened.
0:59:48 And suddenly the child shocked like, wait a minute.
0:59:51 You actually paid attention to what I said.
0:59:53 And by the second time they do that,
0:59:55 suddenly the kid’s opening up.
0:59:58 All mom or dad is still in his mirror.
0:59:59 And just as we wrap up here, Chris,
1:00:02 what do you think are the two or three things
1:00:04 that young people should keep in their back pocket
1:00:06 as it relates to negotiating,
1:00:12 whether it’s for a salary or for a different type
1:00:14 of job responsibilities, whatever it might be.
1:00:16 Are there any sort of go-tos you’d say,
1:00:18 look, this is where young people get wrong a lot
1:00:21 and they should remember whenever they’re in a situation
1:00:23 that involves some type of negotiation?
1:00:27 If you can show the other person
1:00:29 by saying out loud what their perspective is,
1:00:37 that seems like a change of inefficiency.
1:00:40 But just repeating back to them
1:00:45 what their perspective is, is breaks log jams.
1:00:48 And you don’t even, here’s the thing,
1:00:49 you don’t even gotta get it right.
1:00:50 If you just make the attempt,
1:00:53 the other side’s gonna feel you’re collaborating
1:00:54 and they’ll correct you.
1:00:56 They’ll help you get it right.
1:00:59 You go into instantaneous collaboration.
1:01:03 And it doesn’t matter what the negotiation is.
1:01:04 It could be with your boss.
1:01:06 It could be with your parent.
1:01:10 You know how they see things.
1:01:13 Saying how they see it is not a agreement.
1:01:16 And you’re gonna find that a lot of your log jams
1:01:17 are just gonna disappear.
1:01:22 Half of it, half of it, I promise you, will go away
1:01:24 the minute you start trying to repeat
1:01:26 what you think of the other side’s perspectives.
1:01:29 Chris Voss is CEO of the Black Swan Group
1:01:31 and the author of The National Best Seller
1:01:33 never split the difference negotiating
1:01:35 as if your life depended on it.
1:01:36 He previously served as the lead
1:01:38 international kidnapping negotiator
1:01:40 for the federal Bureau of Investigation, the FBI,
1:01:43 as well as the FBI’s hostage negotiation representative
1:01:45 for the National Security Council’s hostage working group.
1:01:48 Before becoming the FBI’s lead
1:01:50 international kidnapping negotiator,
1:01:52 Chris served as the lead crisis negotiator
1:01:54 for the New York City Division of the FBI.
1:01:57 He joins us from his home in the great
1:02:00 and underappreciated city of Las Vegas.
1:02:02 Chris, I really enjoyed this conversation.
1:02:04 Thanks for your good work, Andrew Sherrush.
1:02:06 Scott, thank you very much.
1:02:10 We’ll be right back.
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1:03:29 when she was arrested in 2016.
1:03:31 And since she couldn’t afford it,
1:03:32 she was sent to the workhouse,
1:03:35 a pre-trial detention center in St. Louis.
1:03:37 Inez and the other detainees weren’t locked up
1:03:39 because they’d been convicted,
1:03:42 but because they couldn’t afford their bail.
1:03:45 Experiencing what I experienced
1:03:48 and watching other women go through it
1:03:52 and know that there were thousands before us
1:03:55 and there were thousands after us
1:03:59 who had experienced those same things,
1:04:01 that’s where I was radicalized.
1:04:04 She spent a month at the workhouse
1:04:06 and witnessed abject conditions,
1:04:08 extreme heat and cold,
1:04:09 mold and pest infestations,
1:04:11 and poor medical care.
1:04:13 Eventually her charge was vacated,
1:04:16 but the experience changed her.
1:04:18 They’re starting a campaign to close the workhouse.
1:04:20 Are you interested?
1:04:21 And I was like, hell yeah.
1:04:23 Hell yeah, I’m interested.
1:04:25 Hear how she and other advocates
1:04:27 fought to shut it down and won.
1:04:29 On the first episode of this special
1:04:30 three-part series out now,
1:04:32 hosted by Ashley Seaford,
1:04:34 subscribe to Into the Mix,
1:04:35 a Ben and Jerry’s podcast.
1:04:40 So you’ve arrived, you head to the Brasserie,
1:04:44 then the terrace, cocktail, don’t mind if I do.
1:04:47 You raise your glass to another guest
1:04:51 because you both know the holidays just beginning,
1:04:54 and you’re only in terminal three.
1:04:56 Welcome to Virgin Atlantic’s
1:04:59 unique upper-class clubhouse experience,
1:05:01 where you’ll feel like you’ve arrived
1:05:02 different from the rest of the world.
1:05:05 The experience, where you’ll feel like you’ve arrived
1:05:06 before you’ve taken off.
1:05:10 Virgin Atlantic, see the world differently.
1:05:22 Algebra of happiness,
1:05:24 how to make sure you don’t accidentally
1:05:26 lose 50% of your friends.
1:05:28 My primary residence for the last decade
1:05:31 has been in Delray Beach, Florida,
1:05:33 and I would say it feels like a half,
1:05:34 but it’s probably a third
1:05:35 ’cause they stand out to me.
1:05:38 But somewhere between a third and a half
1:05:42 of our friends down there are not only Republicans,
1:05:42 but Trumpers.
1:05:45 And I really have tremendous amount
1:05:48 of disdain for President Trump.
1:05:49 I don’t think he’s a good person.
1:05:50 I think he’s a terrible role model for men,
1:05:53 and I think he has tangibly made America much weaker,
1:05:54 not great again.
1:05:56 But at the same time,
1:05:59 there’s a lot of smart people, good people.
1:06:02 It’s so pedantic and arrogant
1:06:03 and quite frankly just exclusionary
1:06:05 to immediately write them off
1:06:08 because they support Trump.
1:06:10 But that’s not what this is about.
1:06:12 What this is about is you have to separate
1:06:15 or I would suggest you separate the person
1:06:17 from the politics in your own relationships.
1:06:18 I remember when I was younger,
1:06:20 I was trying to think back when I was dating,
1:06:21 when I was a young man,
1:06:23 I couldn’t tell you what the politics were
1:06:25 of anyone that I dated.
1:06:25 We just didn’t care.
1:06:26 And you know what?
1:06:28 Those were simpler, happier times.
1:06:30 It was one less reason
1:06:33 not to find opportunity to form a relationship.
1:06:35 And this is what I’m going to suggest you do
1:06:37 and what I started doing about 10 years ago,
1:06:39 separate the person from the politics.
1:06:40 Do you want to be friends with them?
1:06:41 Do you enjoy their company?
1:06:42 Do you think they’re smart?
1:06:44 Do you have things that bond you,
1:06:46 whether it’s kids going to the same school,
1:06:48 whether it’s an affection for a certain sport,
1:06:49 whatever it might be.
1:06:53 It’s so difficult to maintain relationships
1:06:54 and it’s so important.
1:06:58 We don’t want to alienate 50% of the populist,
1:07:00 just because they don’t have the same political views as you,
1:07:02 separate the person from the politics.
1:07:06 This episode was produced by Caroline Shagren,
1:07:09 Jennifer Sanchez is our associate producer,
1:07:11 and Drew Burroughs is our technical director.
1:07:12 Thank you for listening to the Prop G Pod
1:07:14 from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
1:07:16 We will catch you on Saturday
1:07:18 for No Mercino Malice, as read by George Hahn.
1:07:21 And please follow our Prop G Markets Pod
1:07:23 wherever you get your pods for new episodes
1:07:24 every Monday and Thursday.