AI transcript
0:00:01 (upbeat music)
0:00:04 Support for this episode comes from The Current Report.
0:00:06 From data privacy to the future of TV,
0:00:08 retail, media, and beyond,
0:00:11 the world of digital marketing is constantly in flux.
0:00:12 So how can you keep up?
0:00:15 Well, The Current Report is there for you.
0:00:17 Each week, marketing leaders on the cutting edge
0:00:18 give you the latest insight.
0:00:21 So if it’s creating a buzz, they’ll be talking about it.
0:00:24 Subscribe to The Current Report
0:00:26 wherever you get your podcasts.
0:00:31 Support for PropG is brought to you by Viori.
0:00:33 Are you sick and tired of traditional old workout gear?
0:00:35 Viori wants to provide you with a new perspective
0:00:36 on performance apparel.
0:00:38 Everything is designed to work out in,
0:00:41 but also look and feel great outside the gym as well.
0:00:43 Viori’s products are incredibly versatile.
0:00:45 You can wear them running, training, stretching,
0:00:47 or just lounging around.
0:00:51 Viori sent me the Elevate Core Shorts and Stratotec tee.
0:00:53 And I like the way they feel that form-fitting.
0:00:53 I feel strong in them.
0:00:54 I feel sleek in them.
0:00:56 I feel like a jungle cat.
0:00:59 Viori is an investment in your happiness.
0:01:00 For our listeners,
0:01:02 they are offering 20% off your first purchase.
0:01:04 Get yourself some of the most comfortable
0:01:07 and versatile clothing on the planet at Viori.com/PropG.
0:01:11 That’s V-U-O-R-I.com/PropG.
0:01:15 – Episode 307.
0:01:17 307 is the area code serving the state of Wyoming.
0:01:19 In 1907, the first traditional
0:01:21 metered gasoline-powered taxi cabs
0:01:23 were introduced in New York City.
0:01:24 True story.
0:01:25 When I rolling out of Lotus,
0:01:27 my favorite night spot in the early odds,
0:01:30 I was incredibly drunk.
0:01:31 My taxi cab driver said,
0:01:34 “You throw up on my seats, it’s a fine.”
0:01:37 So, I immediately threw up everywhere else.
0:01:41 What does that make me happy?
0:01:43 Go, go, go!
0:01:46 (upbeat music)
0:01:53 Welcome to the 307th episode of
0:01:55 the PropG pod in today’s episode.
0:01:57 We speak with Admiral James Stavridis,
0:01:59 a retired four-star U.S. naval officer
0:02:00 and currently partner and vice chairman
0:02:03 of Global Affairs for the Carlisle Group
0:02:04 of Global Investment Firm.
0:02:05 We discussed with the Admiral his thoughts
0:02:07 on the elections happening all over the world,
0:02:08 foreign affairs and national security.
0:02:10 We also get an update on the wars
0:02:11 in the Middle East and Ukraine.
0:02:14 I would love to have Admiral Stavridis on the ticket.
0:02:17 I find he’s just incredibly measured,
0:02:20 reasonable, thoughtful, relatable.
0:02:22 He joked to me I could never run for public office
0:02:25 because I’m five foot, and he said five foot seven.
0:02:27 I thought when you’re standing on the bridge
0:02:31 of an aircraft carrier, you’re seven feet tall.
0:02:33 This is someone who has made a huge difference
0:02:34 and obviously is able to command respect
0:02:35 of thousands of people.
0:02:37 Okay, what’s happening?
0:02:38 I am in Munich.
0:02:42 I’m in Munich where I’m taking my son
0:02:44 to see the semifinals of Spain versus France.
0:02:45 Gotta go with Spain.
0:02:47 Gotta go with the Spaniards.
0:02:49 Hola, Española.
0:02:53 France wins too much in football.
0:02:54 So I’m rooting for the Spanish,
0:02:58 but mostly I’m excited about tomorrow flying to Dortmund
0:03:00 and saying England beat the Netherlands.
0:03:02 Go team England.
0:03:04 And of course, of course I will be in Berlin
0:03:06 at my favorite Soho house.
0:03:08 Best gym in Europe in my view.
0:03:10 And gonna go see the final, which I’m super excited about
0:03:13 and I’m hoping that it’s team England versus,
0:03:14 I don’t know, versus someone.
0:03:17 Anyways, Germany and football.
0:03:18 What could be better than that?
0:03:19 Beer, beer.
0:03:20 They also have that here.
0:03:21 Yeah, I’m excited to be here.
0:03:23 Okay, what else is happening?
0:03:26 So the thing that is dominating the news cycle day after day
0:03:29 is whether Biden should drop out of the race or continue.
0:03:30 After July 4th weekend,
0:03:32 the president sent an open letter to Democrats
0:03:34 saying that despite all of the speculation
0:03:37 he is committed to staying in the race to the very end.
0:03:39 On MSNBC, the president said
0:03:42 he’s getting so frustrated by the elites.
0:03:44 What we’ve had here is that wealthy donors
0:03:46 are reportedly threatening to withhold donations
0:03:49 until Biden exits the race.
0:03:50 I think the way I would describe it
0:03:53 is if you bucket the donors into three buckets,
0:03:56 the whales, the dolphins and the minnows,
0:03:58 the small dollar donors.
0:04:00 I think the big donors,
0:04:02 although I just spoke with Reid Hoffman
0:04:04 and he says they’re concerned,
0:04:06 but I think they’re just sort of at a standstill.
0:04:08 Whereas the dolphins,
0:04:09 I would consider myself a dolphin.
0:04:11 Somebody gives thousands or tens of thousands,
0:04:13 but not hundreds of thousands or millions.
0:04:14 There were sort of an open revolt
0:04:17 that we’re calling very explicitly
0:04:19 for a change in the ticket.
0:04:21 And one of the things that frustrates me
0:04:24 is that the amount of incendiary pushback you get,
0:04:27 shut the hell up or just focus on Biden.
0:04:28 We need to unite.
0:04:29 It’s almost, it feels almost like a,
0:04:32 we accuse Republicans of being cultish
0:04:34 when they have this New Jerk reaction
0:04:36 of being devoted to Donald Trump,
0:04:38 regardless of the situation
0:04:40 or how insane his behavior is.
0:04:41 And I would argue there’s just,
0:04:44 the cult is just as strong on the far left.
0:04:46 Where you get this immediate pushback
0:04:48 of sign up or shut the hell up.
0:04:50 And the notion that there isn’t enough time,
0:04:52 which is sort of their go-to.
0:04:54 And also the only brand positioning right now
0:04:56 around a path to presidency is I’m not him,
0:04:59 specifically I, Joe Biden, I’m not him, Trump.
0:05:02 And I don’t think that’s a compelling value proposition.
0:05:04 And the notion that we don’t have enough time is just,
0:05:06 in my opinion, fucking ridiculous.
0:05:09 Britain had an election start to finish in six weeks.
0:05:13 France basically turned back the far right
0:05:16 and changed the entire complexion of the race
0:05:17 in about seven days.
0:05:18 By the way, I think that’s gonna be very interesting
0:05:20 to see what happens ’cause the far left,
0:05:22 in my opinion, can sometimes be almost as dangerous.
0:05:25 They’re well-meaning, but they can be bad,
0:05:27 maybe not as bad as the far right.
0:05:28 I’m gonna be very curious to see what happens in France
0:05:30 over the next couple of years.
0:05:32 Anyways, I think we could turn chicken shit
0:05:34 into chicken salad here.
0:05:35 What would you do?
0:05:39 You’d, the president obviously needs to step down.
0:05:39 It’s gotta be him.
0:05:42 There’s no kind of viable way to ask those delegates
0:05:43 to go somewhere else.
0:05:44 They’ve already committed to Biden,
0:05:47 but let’s assume that he decides to drop out of the race
0:05:49 with enough pressure, enough voices,
0:05:53 senators, congresspeople, donations come to a halt.
0:05:56 Finally, his wife says it would not be fair of me,
0:06:00 my dear Joe, to put you through this
0:06:02 or to have you go through this.
0:06:04 And I think a lot of this comes down to scenario planning.
0:06:05 So let’s talk through the scenarios.
0:06:08 By the way, scenario planning is not a means
0:06:09 of trying to predict the future,
0:06:11 but trying to imagine possible futures
0:06:14 and then run a strategy or a course of action
0:06:17 through all of those futures that has the best outcome.
0:06:21 And there’s some basics here, one, or basic scenarios.
0:06:24 One, he stays in the race and wins.
0:06:25 Good for him.
0:06:27 I think actually that’s the worst possible outcome
0:06:29 for Joseph Biden.
0:06:32 As someone who has been very involved in their parents’ life
0:06:35 as they have gone into their 70s and 80s,
0:06:38 I think President Biden, based on what I have seen
0:06:39 in terms of his cognitive decline,
0:06:41 is gonna have a very difficult four and a half years
0:06:45 ahead of him, much less trying to experience that decline
0:06:46 in what is the toughest job in the world.
0:06:49 I think this would just be a series of small private
0:06:53 and public humiliations with people hiding him.
0:06:55 Keep in mind the last three presidents to be reelected,
0:06:59 Clinton, Bush, and Obama were 52
0:07:03 when they were reelected on average versus 82.
0:07:05 The worst thing that could happen to his family
0:07:08 and reputation for Joe Biden is if he stays in the race
0:07:10 and he loses, he then becomes this pariah,
0:07:13 which is the ultimate historic example
0:07:16 of malignant narcissism that not only heard a woman’s right
0:07:19 to bodily autonomy, Ruth Bader Ginsburg,
0:07:21 delayed a lot of judges getting appointed,
0:07:25 Diane Feinstein, but Joseph Biden becomes
0:07:28 a malignant narcissist that let us slowly burn
0:07:31 to fascism when almost anyone else
0:07:34 probably would have staved off Donald Trump.
0:07:36 What we aren’t focused on is that Donald Trump
0:07:38 had an absolutely terrible debate
0:07:41 and that anybody else with a pulse in my view,
0:07:42 and I won’t even say with a pulse,
0:07:44 the Democratic bench is incredibly strong here.
0:07:46 How do we turn chicken shit into chicken salad?
0:07:49 You have a eight, six, and then four-member series
0:07:52 of debates all held the two weeks before the convention.
0:07:55 You have Julie Louie Dreyfus host the convention.
0:07:57 It’s a real convention where we nominate
0:07:59 and select somebody.
0:08:02 America gets to know just how incredibly strong
0:08:05 our ballot is and we mature a candidate
0:08:07 that not only scares the shit out of Biden
0:08:09 and tears him limb from limb in a debate,
0:08:11 which any of these would, Whitmer,
0:08:14 although publicly she said she’s out,
0:08:17 but can you imagine a nuisance on a debate stage
0:08:18 with the president?
0:08:23 Can you imagine the contrast in terms of height, youth, hair,
0:08:25 how articulate it is, how compassionate it is,
0:08:28 how many people and how many eye hops across the nation
0:08:32 when interviewed by Fox, CNN, the BBC, PBS would say,
0:08:36 “I’m gonna go with that young, good-looking guy, a lot, a lot.”
0:08:38 We would go from being six points down,
0:08:42 which by the way is the greatest margin to the upside
0:08:43 that Trump has ever enjoyed
0:08:45 since he started running for president in 2015
0:08:47 to being up probably five or six.
0:08:51 We would see the greatest swing in presidential politics
0:08:53 if we matured any one of these candidates
0:08:56 and even more powerfully, as we sometimes overestimate
0:08:59 the power of the president, would be the down ballot impact
0:09:01 because if the nation got a chance to see,
0:09:04 and they would, this would be the media spectacle
0:09:05 of the last decade.
0:09:09 If they got to see how powerful, smart, impressive
0:09:13 Josh Shapiro is, if they got to see Vice President Harris
0:09:15 on the debate stage where she shines
0:09:18 versus what has been a fairly mediocre tenure
0:09:21 as vice president, if they got to see Raphael Warnock,
0:09:23 if they got to see, there’s just so many governors,
0:09:25 there’s so many talented people.
0:09:29 Let Amy Klobuchar back on stage to talk about Annie Trust.
0:09:34 These are Pete Buttigieg, I mean, this is an impressive team
0:09:36 and the team of the best players wins
0:09:38 and Democrats would win up and down the ballot.
0:09:41 It would basically be a two week long commercial.
0:09:44 What do the voters who decide this election have in common?
0:09:46 They don’t give that much of a fuck about politics.
0:09:49 So like me in my 20s, oh, it’s the election this week.
0:09:50 Maybe I should vote.
0:09:51 And then they just start thinking
0:09:53 about general perception of these folks.
0:09:56 Let’s strengthen the perception of the Democratic Party
0:09:58 from the top of the ticket all the way down
0:10:01 and have a competition here, not a coronation.
0:10:04 But I believe if President Biden decides
0:10:06 to stay in the race, the strategy and the positioning
0:10:10 of I’m the other guy, which is his primary foot forward
0:10:12 is gonna not work as someone
0:10:15 has been branding his entire life.
0:10:17 I would love to be if I was a mendacious fuck
0:10:18 and didn’t care about our country
0:10:22 and had somehow decided to develop a fondness for fascism
0:10:23 and was advising the Trump administration
0:10:26 to be pretty easy, to be a three point communications plan.
0:10:30 One, run a video loop of the zombie apocalypse
0:10:31 of useful idiots that are elite colleges
0:10:33 and say, this is what happens when institutions
0:10:37 become 98% democratic as many of the faculties
0:10:39 are of these elite institutions.
0:10:42 Two, run another video loop of what’s happened
0:10:47 in the downtown metro areas of some of the biggest cities
0:10:49 on the West coast that are democratically controlled
0:10:51 and say, this is what happens when Democrats
0:10:52 get control of the city.
0:10:56 And finally three, run a series of edited videos
0:11:00 that basically portray the president as a vegetable.
0:11:04 And I just think, I think Biden is good a man
0:11:06 as he is as successful as the presidency
0:11:10 as he’s had as a better a president as he would be.
0:11:12 I think it’s gonna get slaughtered
0:11:14 against the media machine
0:11:17 and the perception of a more vigorous
0:11:18 former president Trump.
0:11:21 I really hope that people who have influence
0:11:23 over the president sit him down
0:11:26 and convince him that, look boss,
0:11:28 you drop out of this race and this is scenario three
0:11:32 and every room you walk into for the rest of your life,
0:11:35 you get a standing ovation and you are a top contender
0:11:38 to be chiseled into the side of Mount Rushmore.
0:11:42 This is the path to a better America, simply put.
0:11:45 And that is the president who has done an amazing job
0:11:48 needs to drop out and we need to mature, battle test
0:11:50 and rally behind another candidate
0:11:53 such that America continues to push back
0:11:54 on the greatest threat to democracy
0:11:56 and the greatest threat of the 20th century
0:11:58 and it’s emerging again and it’s a threat
0:12:01 we thought was going away, but similar to Jason
0:12:03 with just with a different hockey mask,
0:12:05 fascism is raring its ugly head
0:12:07 and we need to push back on it.
0:12:09 And this is not the guy to do it.
0:12:11 America has been the front line against fascism.
0:12:13 We will continue to need to be the front line
0:12:16 against the gender apartheid that’s taking place globally,
0:12:21 anti-Semitism, polarization, divisiveness, extremism,
0:12:24 climate change, an expansionary Russia,
0:12:28 a China that has its eyes on Taiwan, income inequality.
0:12:31 And let’s be honest, America is the most impressive country
0:12:32 in the world.
0:12:36 We need to mature the most impressive person in the party
0:12:39 to lead the Democratic party and be the front line.
0:12:41 And that is not the president.
0:12:42 That’s the bad news.
0:12:46 The good news is we have a ton of people
0:12:47 who could hold that line.
0:12:48 It is time.
0:12:50 We need someone else to enter the race.
0:12:52 President Biden needs to step down.
0:12:55 We’ll be right back for our conversation
0:12:57 with Admiral James DeVaritas.
0:13:03 Support for the show comes from Mint Mobile.
0:13:04 Getting rid of your pricey phone bill
0:13:06 could free up a lot of room in your summer budget.
0:13:09 It could mean extra snacks for your road trip
0:13:12 or one of those splurgy overpriced martinis on a night out.
0:13:14 Whatever your plans this summer,
0:13:16 Mint Mobile could help you keep a bit more cash
0:13:17 in your pocket.
0:13:19 By switching to Mint Mobile,
0:13:21 you get three months of premium wireless service
0:13:23 for just 15 bucks a month.
0:13:25 All their plans come with high-speed data
0:13:27 and unlimited talk and text delivered
0:13:29 on the nation’s largest 5G network.
0:13:31 You can use your own phone with any Mint Mobile plan
0:13:32 and bring your phone number
0:13:35 along with all your existing contacts.
0:13:36 To get this new customer offer
0:13:38 and your new three-month premium wireless plan
0:13:40 for just 15 bucks a month,
0:13:43 go to mintmobile.com/propg.
0:13:45 That’s mintmobile.com/propg.
0:13:48 Cut your wireless bill to 15 bucks a month
0:13:51 at mintmobile.com/propg.
0:13:53 $45 upfront payment required,
0:13:54 equivalent to $15 per month.
0:13:57 New customers on first three-month plan only.
0:14:00 Speeds slower above 40 gigabytes on unlimited plan.
0:14:03 Additional taxes, fees, and restrictions apply,
0:14:05 seeing Mint Mobile for details.
0:14:08 Support for Propg comes from AG1.
0:14:09 Okay, let’s get right to it.
0:14:13 I know my body, and if my gut isn’t functioning optimally,
0:14:15 it’ll be more challenging to absorb nutrients
0:14:16 from a healthy diet.
0:14:18 It’s the reason I’ve started using AG1
0:14:21 as they have doubled the amount of healthy bacteria
0:14:22 in the gut.
0:14:23 And I have to tell you,
0:14:26 using AG1 has made me feel just better.
0:14:28 I like the taste, it tastes okay,
0:14:30 but it tastes bad enough such that I know it’s good for me.
0:14:33 I know that sounds crazy, but I like it.
0:14:35 And every morning, I feel as if I’m doing something
0:14:37 that starts my day on a good footing.
0:14:39 AG1 is a foundational nutrition supplement
0:14:42 that delivers daily nutrients and gut health support
0:14:44 and is backed by multiple research studies
0:14:47 so you can trust what you’re putting into your body.
0:14:49 If you wanna take ownership of your health,
0:14:50 you can get started with AG1.
0:14:54 Try AG1 and get a free one-year supply of vitamin D3K2
0:14:57 and five free AG1 travel packs
0:15:01 with your first purchase at drinkag1.com/prof.
0:15:05 That’s drinkag1.com/prof.
0:15:08 So you’ve arrived.
0:15:11 You head to the brasserie, then the terrace.
0:15:12 Cocktail?
0:15:15 Don’t mind if I do.
0:15:17 You raise your glass to another guest
0:15:21 because you both know the holidays just beginning.
0:15:25 And you’re only in terminal three.
0:15:27 Welcome to Virgin Atlantic’s unique
0:15:29 upper-class clubhouse experience,
0:15:31 where you’ll feel like you’ve arrived
0:15:32 before you’ve taken off.
0:15:37 Virgin Atlantic, see the world differently.
0:15:44 (upbeat music)
0:15:50 – Welcome back.
0:15:52 Here’s our conversation with Admiral James DeVaritas,
0:15:55 a retired four-star US naval officer
0:15:56 and currently partner and vice chairman
0:15:58 of Global Affairs for the Carlisle Group,
0:16:00 a global investment firm.
0:16:02 Admiral DeVaritas, where does this podcast find you?
0:16:07 – I am in the northern part of Florida,
0:16:08 near Punavidra Beach.
0:16:11 It’s one of the beach towns for Jacksonville.
0:16:14 – So I would just love to get your thoughts.
0:16:16 As someone whose name was constantly floated
0:16:18 as a potential vice presidential candidate
0:16:23 for Secretary Clinton and other democratic hopefuls,
0:16:28 give us a sense for what you think is going on here.
0:16:31 And if you were to attempt to speculate
0:16:32 what might play out over the next week.
0:16:36 This is, I don’t know if it’s the strangest political moment
0:16:37 I’ve ever experienced.
0:16:40 Maybe I’m just, I’m much more attuned to it now,
0:16:42 but obviously a tremendous amount of doubt
0:16:44 around the Biden campaign,
0:16:47 but their camp says they’re steadfast
0:16:49 and their commitment to stay in the race,
0:16:53 but there’s sort of this drip, drip, drip of party elders
0:16:56 coming out and suggesting that he stepped down.
0:16:59 Give us a sense of someone who’s been pretty close to this
0:17:01 and somebody thinks a lot about strategy.
0:17:02 What do you think is going on here
0:17:04 that the public does or does not see
0:17:06 and what do you think plays out?
0:17:08 – I’ll give you the historical piece.
0:17:10 And I at least am old enough to remember
0:17:14 a similarly difficult moment to absorb.
0:17:16 And that was, of course, Watergate
0:17:18 and the resignation of a president
0:17:21 in advance of criminal proceedings
0:17:23 being brought against him, Richard Nixon.
0:17:25 That’s a long time ago.
0:17:30 So yeah, we’re in 50 years of kind of uncharted territory
0:17:35 by comparison, although we’ve seen now three impeachments,
0:17:39 one of Clinton and two of Trump.
0:17:41 So we’re not complete innocence
0:17:44 in this sort of strange season.
0:17:47 But here’s where I’m at on this one.
0:17:51 As I watched that debate, I felt sad for the country.
0:17:56 The choice we’re being presented is, at this moment,
0:18:01 a convicted felon with multiple, multiple character flaws
0:18:03 on full display.
0:18:05 And on the other side, an individual
0:18:09 for whom I have a lot of affection, a lot of respect.
0:18:14 But Father Time appears to me to have caught up with him
0:18:19 and he is not from all that I can see in a good place
0:18:23 to be prepared for four more years.
0:18:24 I think you could have a conversation
0:18:28 if we were looking at it for a year in advance,
0:18:31 but four more years when you look at the progression.
0:18:35 So a bad set of choices in terms of how it plays out,
0:18:38 I can answer that in three words, I don’t know,
0:18:41 and nobody does, literally nobody does.
0:18:44 Not even Joe Biden, in my view, knows
0:18:46 how this one’s gonna play out.
0:18:51 So what I think will happen over the next week to 10 days,
0:18:55 the Democratic Party is gonna have to make a choice
0:18:59 of either putting itself 100% behind a president
0:19:04 who seems physically frail and weak
0:19:06 and hope for the best in the fall,
0:19:10 or they’re going to have to find a new path.
0:19:12 And I’ll conclude with this, Professor.
0:19:15 There is nowhere in the Constitution
0:19:18 where it says Republican Party, Democratic Party,
0:19:20 someone said to me the other day,
0:19:21 oh, they have to go with Biden
0:19:24 because the Constitution demands,
0:19:28 neither Constitution nor law govern political parties.
0:19:32 We’ve had a plethora of political parties in this country
0:19:34 and they get to make up the rules.
0:19:38 And so they have every opportunity
0:19:40 to conduct a mini primary
0:19:43 or they could pass the baton to Kamala.
0:19:44 They’ve got a convention coming up.
0:19:48 I think we are in extremely unpredictable waters.
0:19:51 – Does the military or the arms, do they have a voice here?
0:19:55 – No, and you ought to be very glad that they do not.
0:20:00 Every military member at every grade raises his or her
0:20:03 right hand and swears an oath as follows.
0:20:07 I state your name to solemnly swear to support
0:20:10 and defend the Constitution of the United States
0:20:13 against all enemies, foreign and domestic.
0:20:16 That oath is sworn to the Constitution.
0:20:20 The military will resolutely avoid being embroiled in this
0:20:23 and that’s the kind of Republic we wanna be.
0:20:26 – That’s well said.
0:20:27 There’s a lot that’s uncomfortable about this
0:20:30 but one of those things is do you see
0:20:32 our adversaries being more emboldened
0:20:34 while we’re in a state of chaos?
0:20:37 Do you think they sense weakness and tumult
0:20:41 and are more inclined to be more offensive
0:20:43 or bold in their actions?
0:20:46 – I do and that is a significant risk
0:20:49 and you can break it down, frankly,
0:20:54 into two significant periods of high risk.
0:20:57 One is from now through the election.
0:21:02 I think there the risk is going to be a mal actor deciding
0:21:05 now would be a good time to launch a, for example,
0:21:08 massive cyber attack against the United States.
0:21:10 There’s distraction, there might not be
0:21:12 a resolute response to that.
0:21:14 It’s a little ambiguous.
0:21:17 That period between now and the election,
0:21:22 simply because mal actors, Russia, China, North Korea,
0:21:26 et cetera will have a tendency to believe
0:21:29 we’re too distracted to respond.
0:21:31 That’s one package of time.
0:21:34 After the elections got, unfortunately,
0:21:37 I think we’re gonna have this inner regnum
0:21:41 in which it would seem to me at least a better
0:21:44 than even chance of one side or the other
0:21:45 if it’s a close election,
0:21:48 which it appears it probably will be.
0:21:52 There’ll be a further series of legal challenges.
0:21:56 There could be untoward events like January 6th.
0:21:59 Who knows that second period of time
0:22:03 until the inauguration of the new president,
0:22:08 I think is a second and somewhat even more risky period.
0:22:10 So yes, we need to be leaning forward.
0:22:13 You asked about the military.
0:22:15 The military is not looking internally,
0:22:20 but I assure you the intelligence agencies,
0:22:23 the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the combatant commanders
0:22:26 in position in which I served for eight years,
0:22:27 two different combatant commands,
0:22:31 they are looking outward to try and see
0:22:34 any signs of risk directed against the country
0:22:38 during these very, I think, concerning periods
0:22:41 from now through the inauguration.
0:22:43 – Let’s talk about the Middle East.
0:22:45 On MSNBC, you said that you believe
0:22:48 there’s a one in three chance at best
0:22:50 for a ceasefire in Gaza.
0:22:52 Talk us through how you landed there.
0:22:56 – Number one, the Israelis feel
0:23:01 as though they have not yet completely dismantled
0:23:05 the military capability of Hamas, but they’re close.
0:23:09 And you hear that even from Prime Minister Netanyahu,
0:23:12 certainly from the Israeli general staff.
0:23:14 So I think temporarily speaking,
0:23:18 the Israelis are closing in on eliminating Hamas.
0:23:21 And I believe I’ve said this to you before, Scott,
0:23:26 but the military center of gravity is actually not Hamas.
0:23:31 The military center of gravity is that tunnel complex.
0:23:35 400 miles of tunnels, the Israelis are destroying those.
0:23:40 When those are done, Hamas loses its opportunity
0:23:43 to train, equip, organize, and launch attacks
0:23:46 as they did in October.
0:23:51 So that’s a military equation that is coming to fruition.
0:23:54 I think that’s pretty close.
0:23:58 So that gets me to still more combat opportunities
0:24:02 and actions, but probably the Israelis
0:24:05 are getting in a position to make an accommodation.
0:24:09 On the Hamas side, what I see is a lot of pressure.
0:24:11 It’s been insufficient so far,
0:24:16 but increasing pressure from both Qatar and from Egypt
0:24:21 to get to the point of pressuring Hamas to take a deal.
0:24:26 I feel both sides are kind of closing toward it.
0:24:29 If you’d asked me three months ago,
0:24:32 I think I was saying about a one in five chance.
0:24:35 Now I’m up to about a one in three chance.
0:24:40 The forces pulling against it are,
0:24:44 in addition to the two sides we just discussed, Iran.
0:24:49 Iran would like nothing better than to see Israel
0:24:52 continue to be targeted as resources drain,
0:24:54 see this fighting go on in Gaza.
0:24:57 So Iran is kind of pulling against it,
0:24:59 but I’ll conclude with this.
0:25:01 Now the Iranians have had an election,
0:25:05 elected somebody, I hate to use these two words
0:25:07 in the same sentence, Iranian moderate,
0:25:12 but by Iranian standards, a relatively moderate candidate,
0:25:16 there might be a little loosening of some of those activities.
0:25:20 So when you put all that together, it’s not a slam dunk,
0:25:24 but I think it’s getting close to one in three,
0:25:27 maybe even a little better than that right now.
0:25:29 – You referenced in one of the strengths of American,
0:25:33 I agree, is that our good men and women in uniform
0:25:36 basically say, all right, good or bad decisions,
0:25:39 it’s the Oval Office’s decision,
0:25:42 and we respect the command and control structure here.
0:25:44 I thought it was really unusual or extraordinary
0:25:47 that the IDF publicly came out and said,
0:25:50 we need to see an end of the war
0:25:52 or calling for an end of the war.
0:25:56 That struck me as if you at some point came out
0:26:01 and said to Trump or Obama in a conflict,
0:26:02 it’s time to end this.
0:26:05 I thought that was pretty bold, your thoughts?
0:26:10 – Beyond bold, and from a US norm perspective,
0:26:16 that officer, she or he would have been fired the next day.
0:26:21 We do not want our admirals and generals,
0:26:24 no matter how senior, opining publicly
0:26:28 about what is in essence a political decision.
0:26:30 Closest I can come to that, by the way,
0:26:33 would be Douglas MacArthur, five-star general,
0:26:37 a general of the armies, victor of World War II.
0:26:41 Now he goes through and is in charge of Japan,
0:26:44 all going well, he comes back in command
0:26:47 for the Korean War, and ultimately the president,
0:26:51 Kerry Truman, had to fire him for his insubordination
0:26:54 because he advocated ramping up the campaign,
0:26:58 possibly using nuclear weapons and attacking China.
0:27:02 We’re not paying the generals to opine about that in public.
0:27:06 So yes, I was quite surprised, verging on shock.
0:27:11 And finally, I know the IDF extremely well.
0:27:13 Spent four years when I was NATO commander,
0:27:16 my other side hustle was I was in charge
0:27:20 of US-Israeli military-to-military relations.
0:27:23 So I was in Israel quite a bit, became very good friends,
0:27:26 for example, with General Benny Gantz,
0:27:28 the former head of the IDF,
0:27:32 General Gabi Ashkenazi, former head of the IDF.
0:27:36 I can’t imagine either of them, while in uniform,
0:27:40 opining on that level of political controversy.
0:27:42 Really shocking.
0:27:46 Benchmark, the IDF’s capabilities and technology
0:27:50 and personnel relative to the other fighting forces
0:27:54 in the Middle East, or even say, for example, Russia.
0:27:58 – The IDF has advanced technology.
0:28:01 I’ll give you three very concrete examples.
0:28:05 One, they reportedly have nuclear weapons.
0:28:10 Two, the Israelis have among, I’d say, the top four,
0:28:14 certainly top five cyber capabilities,
0:28:16 offensive and defensive alike.
0:28:21 And they have a superb air force that has the ability
0:28:24 to conduct long range bombing attacks,
0:28:26 has fairly good refueling,
0:28:30 although they’re buying additional capability from the US.
0:28:32 Nobody else in the region remotely
0:28:34 is at that level with them.
0:28:38 What they don’t have is massive manpower.
0:28:43 They’re a nation of about 9 million, about 7 million Jews.
0:28:49 So it’s a limited manpower pool compared to Iran,
0:28:55 compared to any other potential opponent in the region.
0:28:58 They don’t have the big pool of manpower to draw on.
0:29:02 But if you ask me, which hand of cards would you wanna play?
0:29:04 You know, as a general or an admiral,
0:29:09 I’d grab the Israeli military, it’s a jewel.
0:29:10 – You mentioned the tunnels.
0:29:13 And it strikes me that every time there’s a major conflict,
0:29:15 out of it comes not a surprise,
0:29:18 but a piece of technology that played a bigger role.
0:29:21 Like we saw tanks in World War I, but my sense is,
0:29:25 they really had their day when Hitler rolled his tanks
0:29:29 into Poland and was met with the Polish cavalry.
0:29:32 And we saw, okay, tanks are better, right?
0:29:35 And then we saw aircraft and jet engine,
0:29:37 you know, all sorts of stuff, radar.
0:29:41 It’s, you said, or there’s two words,
0:29:42 and you said one of them that struck me
0:29:44 that we’re gonna hear a lot more about
0:29:47 in terms of military strategy and technology and machinery.
0:29:50 One is tunnels and the other is drones.
0:29:51 I’d love your thoughts on that.
0:29:55 And if there are others that are coming out of this conflict.
0:29:57 – Yeah, tunnels actually have been with us
0:30:00 in warfare for centuries.
0:30:04 But the degree to which Hamas was able
0:30:08 to build this underground complex,
0:30:12 pretty striking given the restrictions on Hamas,
0:30:16 comparably the North Koreans have a very sophisticated
0:30:19 underground tunnel connectivity system.
0:30:23 So yes, tunnels I think are something that is old,
0:30:25 but is new again.
0:30:27 Drones, let’s expand that idea.
0:30:29 Let’s say unmanned.
0:30:32 So that means everything from satellites in space.
0:30:33 A satellite is a drone, right?
0:30:38 It’s an unmanned vehicle, long dwells, surveillance drones,
0:30:40 command and control drones.
0:30:43 What you think of as reapers and predators,
0:30:47 attack drones, carrying missiles, surface drones.
0:30:52 The Ukrainian Navy is using surface boats,
0:30:55 drones to strike Russian warships
0:30:58 and drones go all the way to the bottom of the sea.
0:31:03 Here’s the third piece of the triad that I would mention.
0:31:05 It’s artificial intelligence.
0:31:09 And we’re seeing the edges of that emerging now in Ukraine,
0:31:14 where AI is being used to direct these drone swarms
0:31:18 on both sides of that firing line, still very nascent.
0:31:21 But as I look at the future of warfare,
0:31:24 it’s unmanned, cyber.
0:31:26 It is tunnel complexes.
0:31:30 I’m gonna throw in special forces into that mix.
0:31:32 And above all, it’s artificial intelligence
0:31:35 that will knit all of this together.
0:31:37 – The truce that Biden outlined,
0:31:40 kind of this five-step truce.
0:31:43 And it includes rebuilding of Gaza.
0:31:48 Like, realistically, and I don’t mean to sound like a nihilist
0:31:53 or a fatalist here, isn’t any truce given the history here
0:31:57 just kind of ready to be broken again?
0:32:02 I’m struggling, I recognize that you’re a military man,
0:32:04 but as someone who’s been considered
0:32:06 for these diplomatic posts,
0:32:10 what do you think, is there a sustainable state of being
0:32:12 there right now, or could there be?
0:32:17 – One phrase that has always stuck in my mind
0:32:20 from former chairman of the Joint Chiefs,
0:32:23 General Pete Pace, was asked a question roughly
0:32:25 along those lines, and he said,
0:32:29 “War will continue in the Middle East
0:32:31 until the people of the Middle East
0:32:35 learn to love their children more
0:32:37 than they hate their enemies.”
0:32:40 That’s a very profound line.
0:32:43 And it gets to your point that is it possible
0:32:48 to undo centuries, frankly, millennia of bitterness,
0:32:53 particularly between these three competing religious groups
0:32:54 in the Middle East.
0:32:56 There’s a fabulous book about this
0:32:59 written probably 20 years ago, it’s a great title,
0:33:03 The Battle for God, it’s by Karen Armstrong,
0:33:07 and it’s a book about Judaism, Christianity, and Islam,
0:33:11 and their seemingly endless ability to find their way
0:33:13 to war and bitterness and hatred.
0:33:17 So the short answer to the question is,
0:33:21 until the people of the Middle East, collectively,
0:33:26 decide they are going to reject that nihilistic aspects
0:33:29 of their religious bitterness and disagreements
0:33:32 and free themselves from the past
0:33:37 and the bitterness over previous jihads
0:33:42 and massacres in camps, and there are plenty on all sides.
0:33:45 Until that happens, I don’t think there’s a quick solution.
0:33:50 Now, on a more positive note, if there is a path forward,
0:33:56 I think the table stakes are a reconstruction of Gaza.
0:34:01 I think table stakes are a Arab security force,
0:34:05 not an Israeli security force, an Arab security force
0:34:08 that takes over security for Gaza.
0:34:12 And third and most difficult for the Israelis to accept
0:34:14 some kind of a path towards statehood.
0:34:17 I think if you could get in that zip code,
0:34:22 then you could build on the existing diplomatic relations
0:34:26 between Israel and some of its Arab neighbors.
0:34:29 That’s the point where the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
0:34:30 could come in, Scott,
0:34:34 and bring a lot of resources to bear on this problem.
0:34:38 All those are possible, but we talked percentages before.
0:34:40 I think it’s a one in 10 chance
0:34:42 that we can really resolve this
0:34:45 with something as simple as a five-step plan.
0:34:47 (upbeat music)
0:34:49 We’ll be right back.
0:34:55 Support for Prop G comes from Life360.
0:34:56 We’ve all had the infuriating experience
0:34:58 of getting ready to leave and then realizing you’ve lost
0:35:00 something you absolutely can’t go about your day without,
0:35:03 your phone, your wallet, your keys.
0:35:04 I know I’m probably bringing back
0:35:08 horrible anxiety memories just talking about it.
0:35:10 I basically lose everything.
0:35:14 I just assume that I will lose my phone and my keys today,
0:35:15 and I just don’t get upset.
0:35:17 But now, you can save yourself the anxiety
0:35:20 with tile trackers from Life360.
0:35:21 You can attach a tile to your keys,
0:35:24 put one in your wallet, or on whatever it is
0:35:25 you don’t want to lose.
0:35:27 Then you simply use the app to ring the tile
0:35:28 so you can find it.
0:35:29 Can’t hear the ring.
0:35:31 You can see your tile’s location on the app’s map.
0:35:33 Tiles can even reverse ring your phone,
0:35:35 even if it’s on silent.
0:35:36 And unlike other trackers,
0:35:38 it can even track stolen items without tipping off thieves.
0:35:41 You just tile it, track it, and find it.
0:35:44 You can keep track of what’s important with tile.
0:35:47 Visit Tile.com today and use code PROPG
0:35:49 to get 15% off all tiles.
0:35:51 That’s Tile.com code PROPG.
0:35:59 Support for PROPG comes from Miro.
0:36:02 If you’ve ever worked with a big team on a big project,
0:36:03 you know how easy it can be to lose sight
0:36:04 of the bigger picture.
0:36:08 A small list of tasks can quickly grow to be in mountain.
0:36:10 When that happens, you need the right tool
0:36:11 that’ll help broaden your view.
0:36:13 Miro can give you the perspective shift
0:36:16 you need to head into your next team sprint with confidence.
0:36:18 Miro is a visual collaboration platform
0:36:20 that gives your team more clarity
0:36:22 with its host of features and functionalities,
0:36:25 which work seamlessly with existing tool sets.
0:36:26 With Miro’s plan or widget,
0:36:28 you can connect with Jira or Azure
0:36:30 to visualize and filter tasks.
0:36:32 Miro makes any sprint ritual,
0:36:35 whether it be a standup, estimation, sprint planning,
0:36:38 or retrospective, more efficient, clear,
0:36:39 and ultimately more productive.
0:36:41 You can make sure your team has the content they need
0:36:43 before devoting time and resources
0:36:44 to get the work done.
0:36:46 With Miro, planning team tasks is smoother
0:36:48 and gives everyone a clear sense of mission.
0:36:51 For every sprint, whether you work in product design,
0:36:54 engineering, UX, agile, or marketing,
0:36:57 bring your team together on Miro.
0:36:59 Your first three Miro boards are for free
0:37:01 when you sign up today at Miro.com.
0:37:05 That’s three free boards at M-I-R-O dot com.
0:37:11 Support for this podcast comes from Vanta.
0:37:12 Whether you’re starting or scaling
0:37:14 your company’s security program,
0:37:16 demonstrating top-notch security practices
0:37:19 and establishing trust is more important than ever.
0:37:23 Vanta automates compliance for SOC2, ISO 27001,
0:37:25 and more, saving you time and money
0:37:27 while helping you build customer trust.
0:37:29 Plus, you can streamline security reviews
0:37:31 by automating questionnaires
0:37:33 and demonstrating your security posture
0:37:35 with a customer-facing trust center
0:37:37 all powered by Vanta AI.
0:37:40 Over 7,000 global companies like Atlassian, FlowHealth,
0:37:43 and Quora use Vanta to manage risk
0:37:45 and proof security in real time.
0:37:49 Get $1,000 off Vanta when you go to vanta.com/box.
0:37:53 That’s vanta.com/box for $1,000 off.
0:38:02 – Since we last spoke a few months ago,
0:38:05 the state of play in Ukraine.
0:38:08 – Yeah, let’s catch up.
0:38:13 Since you and I spoke last, Russia has been on the front foot,
0:38:18 making some gains in the northeast of Ukraine,
0:38:23 putting some pressure on the second largest city, Kharkiv.
0:38:28 You could kinda see Putin with some air under his wings.
0:38:32 What has changed, and how often do you get to put these words
0:38:36 in one sentence, the U.S. Congress did a good job.
0:38:37 I’ll say him again.
0:38:39 U.S. Congress did a good job.
0:38:43 Finally, having exhausted all other possibilities,
0:38:47 they did a good job in that they provided $60 billion
0:38:52 in military aid, which matches the roughly $70 billion
0:38:55 the Europeans have put toward this project.
0:38:59 So now there’s real combat equipment flowing forward,
0:39:02 and I feel the momentum is shifting back.
0:39:05 Bottom line, however, is, as I think I told you,
0:39:07 probably six months ago.
0:39:10 Ultimately, I think this will end in a stalemate.
0:39:14 It’ll end probably roughly where the battle lines
0:39:19 are now drawn with Putin in control of about 15% of Ukraine.
0:39:24 Ukrainians will hate that, but the quid pro quo for them
0:39:27 would be security guarantees,
0:39:29 a path toward membership in NATO,
0:39:31 probably in the three year future,
0:39:34 and a membership in the European Union.
0:39:39 That’s a complicated problem boiled down to a few sentences,
0:39:41 but I think that’s how this one ends up,
0:39:45 and therefore I think we’ll probably see more stalemate,
0:39:48 a little bit back and forth on these firing lines
0:39:50 through the fall U.S. election.
0:39:53 That’ll be the moment for a negotiation.
0:39:56 – The elections are, there feels like there’s a leftward
0:40:01 breeze coming out of Europe, which is shocked people.
0:40:05 And I was reading about the elections in France,
0:40:08 and many of us were kind of celebrating the notion
0:40:11 that it was great that they kind of left,
0:40:13 center left and then the far left got together
0:40:16 and decided to coordinate to stave off the far right.
0:40:19 And I think initially there’s a feeling of celebration,
0:40:22 but when I look at some of the far left policies
0:40:25 that I think the center left will have to accommodate,
0:40:28 they’re fiercely anti-NATO is my impression.
0:40:33 – What do these recent events and elections, new parties,
0:40:36 what is the impact on NATO as an alliance moving forward?
0:40:40 – I will come to that essentially tactical question
0:40:41 in a moment.
0:40:46 Can we just step back for a moment and celebrate democracy?
0:40:51 In the last month, over 2 billion people voted in elections
0:40:56 that from what I can see were free and fair
0:40:59 and delivered some surprising results.
0:41:03 900 million people voted in the Indian election,
0:41:05 and the outcome was kind of a surprise,
0:41:08 a body check to Mr. Modi.
0:41:13 Mexico elects the first woman and the first Jew
0:41:16 in the most Catholic and patriarchal country,
0:41:18 arguably in the Americas.
0:41:22 In South Africa, the ruling party gets a very significant
0:41:23 body check.
0:41:28 In the European parliament, another 500 million people vote,
0:41:32 and it’s a, like you said, a little bit of a right wing,
0:41:36 left wing, kind of hard to read, depends on the country.
0:41:38 And then you live in London, Scott.
0:41:41 We see a complete shift in the government there,
0:41:43 coming from the left.
0:41:46 And of course, as you allude to the results in France.
0:41:49 Now you can like it or lump it on a variety
0:41:52 of those different candidates and outcomes,
0:41:55 but I say hail to democracy.
0:41:58 It’s delivering some surprising outcomes
0:42:02 in some what appear to me to be free and fair elections.
0:42:04 That’s a good thing in my view,
0:42:07 especially as we constantly, as we should,
0:42:10 wring our hands about the authoritarianism in the world.
0:42:13 Let’s keep democracy in perspective.
0:42:15 As Churchill said, the worst form of government,
0:42:17 except for all the others.
0:42:20 So that’s the strategic chapeau.
0:42:25 In terms of NATO, it’s a mixture of reactions that I have.
0:42:28 UK won’t make a bit of difference.
0:42:31 UK is going to continue to strongly support NATO,
0:42:34 particularly having walked away from the European Union.
0:42:37 In France, you’re right to worry
0:42:40 about the tenancies of the far left.
0:42:43 Macron, I think, has his strengths and weaknesses,
0:42:48 don’t we all, but he has come around on NATO.
0:42:51 And I think he will work with the left
0:42:56 to at least ensure that Ukraine continues to get support.
0:42:58 And that’s the main ball right now.
0:43:01 Germany, I think, is going to continue
0:43:03 to increase its defense budget.
0:43:06 Poland is now spending as much on defense
0:43:09 as the United States on a per capita basis.
0:43:12 Maybe a little more, believe it or not.
0:43:15 And there are other examples in the alliance.
0:43:19 So overall, the elections are gonna cause
0:43:24 that transatlantic bridge to creak just a little bit.
0:43:29 But I think as I look at the NATO situation going forward,
0:43:32 I think the alliance is going to continue
0:43:34 to be in a pretty strong position.
0:43:37 And by the way, I’ll ask the follow-on question.
0:43:38 Well, wait a minute, Admiral,
0:43:41 what if Donald Trump is elected president?
0:43:45 Someone who has talked publicly about pulling out a NATO.
0:43:46 I don’t see it.
0:43:50 I think Trump, like all of us, has strengths and weaknesses.
0:43:53 Ultimately, he’s pretty transactional.
0:43:55 I think if the Europeans continue
0:43:57 to increase their defense budget
0:43:59 and their spending goes up,
0:44:01 Trump would ultimately say,
0:44:03 “Yeah, that’s pretty good value for the dollar
0:44:05 for us to stay with NATO.”
0:44:09 So I think NATO comes out of all of this,
0:44:11 certainly not blaze of glory,
0:44:14 but as a pretty solid alliance.
0:44:19 – So it feels like we’re going back to Ukraine.
0:44:22 There’s some winners, right?
0:44:25 I would imagine the industrial military complex
0:44:28 or weapons producers in the US are winners.
0:44:31 I also imagine that China is a big winner.
0:44:32 They’re getting cheaper oil
0:44:37 and all of a sudden, they become an integral,
0:44:40 crucial partner for Russia.
0:44:42 Give us your read on China as it relates
0:44:45 to the war in Ukraine and what that means
0:44:49 in terms of everyone’s favorite, you know,
0:44:53 bogeyman, the possible invasion of Taiwan.
0:44:55 – Yeah, I’d love to.
0:44:59 Let me start with a bit of advice for Vladimir Putin.
0:45:02 And I despise Vladimir Putin.
0:45:04 You know, you may or may not know,
0:45:08 I have 50 medals from 29 different countries.
0:45:10 The foreign decoration I’m proudest of
0:45:13 is that I’m sanctioned by the Kremlin.
0:45:15 I’d put that at the top of my medal stack.
0:45:18 So I despise Vladimir Putin,
0:45:21 but if I were going to give him advice,
0:45:23 I would say President Putin,
0:45:26 be very careful of your relationship with China.
0:45:30 You are about to become an extremely junior partner
0:45:31 in that relationship.
0:45:33 And think of it this way, Scott,
0:45:36 you’re the economist, you sit in Beijing,
0:45:37 you look north, what do you see?
0:45:42 You see Siberia, this vast, empty land space.
0:45:45 It’s the size of the continental United States.
0:45:47 Maybe 25 million people live there.
0:45:48 That’s it.
0:45:51 That’s Russia to the east of the Euro mountains.
0:45:54 Here’s what is there.
0:45:58 Oil, gas, diamonds, rarers,
0:46:01 arable land, timber, fresh water.
0:46:02 You get the picture.
0:46:05 The Chinese look at that like my dog looks
0:46:06 at a ribeye steak.
0:46:08 It looks really good.
0:46:10 Putin is really taking Russia down
0:46:13 a strategic rabbit hole here.
0:46:18 In terms of how the war in Ukraine looks from Beijing,
0:46:20 you know, if I were President Xi,
0:46:22 I would be scratching my head.
0:46:26 Just over two years ago at the Olympics,
0:46:29 President Putin told his best friend forever,
0:46:33 President Xi, hey, don’t tell anybody,
0:46:35 but I’m going to invade Ukraine.
0:46:38 And in five days, I’m going to sweep that country.
0:46:41 I’m going to grab that little comedian,
0:46:43 Volodymyr Zelensky, I’m going to throw him
0:46:47 in a Florida prison, never to be heard from again.
0:46:50 And then I’m going to have control of Ukraine,
0:46:54 which is full of all kinds of wonderful natural resources,
0:46:58 oil and gas in the Black Sea, a huge agrarian factory.
0:46:59 It’s all going to be mine.
0:47:00 That’s what Xi heard.
0:47:02 Here’s what he’s seeing.
0:47:05 He’s seen two and a half years of the Russian military
0:47:10 stumbling around incapable of overrunning a nation
0:47:13 that it should have swept in the first week or two
0:47:16 before the Western aid got there.
0:47:19 Now Putin has missed the window to do that.
0:47:24 So Xi, his first question is, in terms of himself,
0:47:26 you know, those Russian generals are pretty bad.
0:47:30 I wonder what my Chinese generals are like.
0:47:31 He has no idea.
0:47:34 He hasn’t had a general hear a shot fired in anger,
0:47:37 not a single Chinese general.
0:47:40 They haven’t been in a war of any kind
0:47:43 since a dust up with Vietnam and not in a serious war
0:47:44 since the Korean War.
0:47:47 That’s 70 plus years ago.
0:47:51 So the point is she has a lot of doubt watching that.
0:47:55 He also has a lot of doubt about sanctions.
0:47:57 He knows there would be sanctions imposed
0:47:58 if he attacked Taiwan.
0:48:01 He’s looking at what’s happening to Russia.
0:48:04 So that’s, I think, a second warning shot for him.
0:48:06 And thirdly, if he’s smart,
0:48:11 he’s looking at how those Ukrainians are fighting like hell.
0:48:13 You know, I don’t know if the Taiwanese will fight,
0:48:15 but I’ve been to Taiwan.
0:48:18 I’ve met Madam Sai, the former president,
0:48:20 President Lai, the new president.
0:48:22 I’ve met their national security team.
0:48:26 I’ve seen their military in training exercises.
0:48:27 I think they’ll fight.
0:48:29 I think they’ll fight hard.
0:48:30 And by the way, that island
0:48:32 would be a resistance fighter’s dream.
0:48:36 It’s mountainous, wooded, surrounded by water.
0:48:38 That’s not an easy nut to crack
0:48:41 across a hundred miles of very difficult sea.
0:48:45 So bottom line, I think she is playing this one
0:48:47 very intelligently.
0:48:50 He’s getting tons of free oil and gas from Russia.
0:48:53 He’s insisting they hard pipe it to the east, to him,
0:48:55 so that can’t be undone.
0:48:58 He is doing everything possible
0:49:01 to create that sense of junior partnership
0:49:02 on the part of Putin.
0:49:04 I think he’s succeeding at doing that.
0:49:08 And I think he’s too smart to launch an invasion of Taiwan,
0:49:11 at least for the foreseeable future.
0:49:13 – Admiral James Stavridis is a retired four-star
0:49:15 US naval officer.
0:49:17 He is currently partner and vice chairman,
0:49:19 global affairs of the Carlisle Group,
0:49:21 a global investment firm and his chair
0:49:24 of the Board of Trustees of the Rockefeller Foundation.
0:49:27 Admiral Stavridis has published 13 books on leadership,
0:49:30 The Oceans, Maritime Affairs in Latin America,
0:49:32 as well as hundreds of articles and leading journals.
0:49:35 His forthcoming book, The Restless Wave,
0:49:37 a novel of the United States Navy
0:49:38 will be published on October 8th.
0:49:41 He joins us from his home in Florida.
0:49:43 In terms of economy of words, Admiral,
0:49:47 I feel as if our listeners get so much insight
0:49:48 in so little time.
0:49:52 So thanks for your, thanks for your crisp insights.
0:49:53 – Thank you, sir.
0:49:55 I’d love to come back and talk about World War II
0:49:57 with you when The Restless Wave comes out.
0:49:58 – I would love that.
0:49:59 I think I’ll subside a bit.
0:50:00 I would love that.
0:50:01 Thank you, Admiral.
0:50:03 (upbeat music)
0:50:08 (upbeat music)
0:50:14 – Audra of Happiness.
0:50:16 It’s difficult, but you need to train yourself
0:50:18 to try and see the best in people
0:50:20 when you don’t know what’s going on.
0:50:23 I’m getting, I don’t know if the term is paranoid,
0:50:25 but I’m here in Europe and something I’ve noticed,
0:50:27 I was in Turkey.
0:50:28 We were on a boat in Greece,
0:50:30 and then we disembarked in Bodrum,
0:50:32 which is a beautiful part of the world,
0:50:34 and we’d spent time there 10 years ago,
0:50:35 and we decided to go back.
0:50:38 Turkey has had, what’s the term?
0:50:40 I don’t like Turkey’s policies on Israel,
0:50:42 and I probably would have rethought the trip
0:50:45 had we had more notice and it didn’t involve
0:50:46 rearranging the travel plans for other people.
0:50:50 But the thing I noticed that really bummed me out
0:50:52 when I was in Bodrum is that it felt like
0:50:53 there were just no Americans
0:50:55 and no Western Europeans there.
0:50:56 And it bummed me out.
0:50:59 I thought we were just withdrawing from one another,
0:51:00 that we’re sequestering.
0:51:05 It seems like we’re turning into Western Europe and the US
0:51:07 versus everybody else, or is that true?
0:51:09 That’s probably not true,
0:51:11 but it does feel like we’re separating.
0:51:12 And it’s really disappointing.
0:51:16 And I was thinking about how wonderful my life has been
0:51:19 as an adult because of commercial jet transportation
0:51:23 and a fairly neoliberal viewpoint across all nations,
0:51:28 including Turkey and the Gulf and Asia
0:51:31 that really welcome people from different cultures
0:51:32 and appreciate them.
0:51:35 And we sort of lay down our differences
0:51:37 and enjoy each other’s food and company.
0:51:39 And one of the things I love about American universities
0:51:41 is it brings in people from all over the world.
0:51:43 I just think you’re less inclined to declare war on a nation
0:51:45 if a lot of people in that nation have spent a lot of time
0:51:47 with people from the other nation.
0:51:49 I think mingling, mixing,
0:51:51 interracial marriages are really important.
0:51:53 We are supposed to, we are supposed to mix.
0:51:54 We are supposed to,
0:51:57 there was a reason that mutts are healthier and happier.
0:52:00 We’re not supposed to sequester and fall in love
0:52:03 and be friends and have political alliances
0:52:04 only with people like us.
0:52:06 We benefit from this diversity.
0:52:09 And I worry that we’re in fact sequestering
0:52:11 and bifurcating, if you will.
0:52:13 Anyways, having said that,
0:52:18 I was at a table today and I’m staying here in Munich
0:52:22 and there was a table of four or five people next to me,
0:52:23 four guys.
0:52:26 And I don’t know if they were speaking Arabic.
0:52:27 I think they were.
0:52:29 And they started passing around a phone
0:52:31 and I didn’t know what was going on.
0:52:32 And it was clear, it became clear
0:52:33 they were showing videos of me
0:52:36 and then all turning around and staring at me.
0:52:39 And I found it sort of threatening and intimidating.
0:52:42 And I went to kind of a dark place
0:52:44 and then I thought about it and I thought,
0:52:47 they’re probably just a group of guys here like me
0:52:52 to see the semifinals of Spain and France
0:52:54 and recognize me from one of my videos
0:52:56 and we’re talking about it.
0:52:59 And so when they got up, I said, “Hey guys.”
0:53:01 And I just tried to be friendly and nice
0:53:03 and they were friendly and nice back.
0:53:05 And I use it as a cautionary tale
0:53:08 that it’s easy to digress as you get older
0:53:11 into this sort of the walls are closing in on you
0:53:15 and become less and less comfortable without situations.
0:53:17 And you have, especially if you struggle a little bit
0:53:20 with depression or anxiety or anger as I do,
0:53:23 you have a tendency to make snap judgments
0:53:24 and think the worst of people.
0:53:26 And the reality is the vast majority of people out there
0:53:28 are like you, they’re good people who love their families
0:53:32 looking for a nice time, good citizens.
0:53:33 But it was sort of a,
0:53:35 I don’t wanna call it a cautionary tale,
0:53:37 but it reminded me that if I wanna be happier
0:53:40 and I want a better world, I need to assume the best.
0:53:44 I need to see the world and see people as a glass half full.
0:53:46 (upbeat music)
0:53:48 This episode was produced by Caroline Shagren.
0:53:51 Jennifer Sanchez is our associate producer
0:53:53 and Jew Burroughs is our technical director.
0:53:54 Thank you for listening to the Prop G Pod
0:53:56 from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
0:53:59 We will catch you on Saturday for “No Mercy, No Malice”
0:54:00 as read by George Hahn.
0:54:03 And please follow our Prop G Markets Pod
0:54:05 wherever you get your pods for new episodes
0:54:06 every Monday and Thursday.
0:54:09 The Prop G Markets Pod was number one in business.
0:54:10 I think it’s one of the best
0:54:13 or most successful new pods in a while.
0:54:14 We’re really excited about it.
0:54:16 With my co-host, Ed Elson,
0:54:18 the 14 year old Irish person,
0:54:20 not sure he’s 26 and he’s British.
0:54:23 But anyways, please tune in to Prop G Markets
0:54:26 wherever you get your pods every Monday and Thursday.
0:54:31 Plain strains and automobiles, that’s how we get around.
0:54:32 But it hasn’t always been the case.
0:54:34 For agents, humans have been adapting
0:54:36 and revolutionizing how we travel.
0:54:38 So what does the future hold?
0:54:39 That’s what we’re gonna be exploring
0:54:43 in our new special series on pivot, the future of travel.
0:54:45 Whether it’s electric powered planes,
0:54:48 trains that go at hyper speeds or automobiles
0:54:51 that are full self-driving, someday they will be,
0:54:53 even though Elon promises them far too early.
0:54:55 In any case, it’s really important to talk
0:54:55 about where we’re going
0:54:57 and what we’re gonna do about climate change
0:54:58 and a range of things.
0:55:00 Tune in to the future of travel,
0:55:03 a pivot special series brought to you by Virgin Atlantic.
0:55:05 You can find it on the pivot feed
0:55:07 wherever you get your podcasts.
0:55:17 [BLANK_AUDIO]
0:00:04 Support for this episode comes from The Current Report.
0:00:06 From data privacy to the future of TV,
0:00:08 retail, media, and beyond,
0:00:11 the world of digital marketing is constantly in flux.
0:00:12 So how can you keep up?
0:00:15 Well, The Current Report is there for you.
0:00:17 Each week, marketing leaders on the cutting edge
0:00:18 give you the latest insight.
0:00:21 So if it’s creating a buzz, they’ll be talking about it.
0:00:24 Subscribe to The Current Report
0:00:26 wherever you get your podcasts.
0:00:31 Support for PropG is brought to you by Viori.
0:00:33 Are you sick and tired of traditional old workout gear?
0:00:35 Viori wants to provide you with a new perspective
0:00:36 on performance apparel.
0:00:38 Everything is designed to work out in,
0:00:41 but also look and feel great outside the gym as well.
0:00:43 Viori’s products are incredibly versatile.
0:00:45 You can wear them running, training, stretching,
0:00:47 or just lounging around.
0:00:51 Viori sent me the Elevate Core Shorts and Stratotec tee.
0:00:53 And I like the way they feel that form-fitting.
0:00:53 I feel strong in them.
0:00:54 I feel sleek in them.
0:00:56 I feel like a jungle cat.
0:00:59 Viori is an investment in your happiness.
0:01:00 For our listeners,
0:01:02 they are offering 20% off your first purchase.
0:01:04 Get yourself some of the most comfortable
0:01:07 and versatile clothing on the planet at Viori.com/PropG.
0:01:11 That’s V-U-O-R-I.com/PropG.
0:01:15 – Episode 307.
0:01:17 307 is the area code serving the state of Wyoming.
0:01:19 In 1907, the first traditional
0:01:21 metered gasoline-powered taxi cabs
0:01:23 were introduced in New York City.
0:01:24 True story.
0:01:25 When I rolling out of Lotus,
0:01:27 my favorite night spot in the early odds,
0:01:30 I was incredibly drunk.
0:01:31 My taxi cab driver said,
0:01:34 “You throw up on my seats, it’s a fine.”
0:01:37 So, I immediately threw up everywhere else.
0:01:41 What does that make me happy?
0:01:43 Go, go, go!
0:01:46 (upbeat music)
0:01:53 Welcome to the 307th episode of
0:01:55 the PropG pod in today’s episode.
0:01:57 We speak with Admiral James Stavridis,
0:01:59 a retired four-star U.S. naval officer
0:02:00 and currently partner and vice chairman
0:02:03 of Global Affairs for the Carlisle Group
0:02:04 of Global Investment Firm.
0:02:05 We discussed with the Admiral his thoughts
0:02:07 on the elections happening all over the world,
0:02:08 foreign affairs and national security.
0:02:10 We also get an update on the wars
0:02:11 in the Middle East and Ukraine.
0:02:14 I would love to have Admiral Stavridis on the ticket.
0:02:17 I find he’s just incredibly measured,
0:02:20 reasonable, thoughtful, relatable.
0:02:22 He joked to me I could never run for public office
0:02:25 because I’m five foot, and he said five foot seven.
0:02:27 I thought when you’re standing on the bridge
0:02:31 of an aircraft carrier, you’re seven feet tall.
0:02:33 This is someone who has made a huge difference
0:02:34 and obviously is able to command respect
0:02:35 of thousands of people.
0:02:37 Okay, what’s happening?
0:02:38 I am in Munich.
0:02:42 I’m in Munich where I’m taking my son
0:02:44 to see the semifinals of Spain versus France.
0:02:45 Gotta go with Spain.
0:02:47 Gotta go with the Spaniards.
0:02:49 Hola, Española.
0:02:53 France wins too much in football.
0:02:54 So I’m rooting for the Spanish,
0:02:58 but mostly I’m excited about tomorrow flying to Dortmund
0:03:00 and saying England beat the Netherlands.
0:03:02 Go team England.
0:03:04 And of course, of course I will be in Berlin
0:03:06 at my favorite Soho house.
0:03:08 Best gym in Europe in my view.
0:03:10 And gonna go see the final, which I’m super excited about
0:03:13 and I’m hoping that it’s team England versus,
0:03:14 I don’t know, versus someone.
0:03:17 Anyways, Germany and football.
0:03:18 What could be better than that?
0:03:19 Beer, beer.
0:03:20 They also have that here.
0:03:21 Yeah, I’m excited to be here.
0:03:23 Okay, what else is happening?
0:03:26 So the thing that is dominating the news cycle day after day
0:03:29 is whether Biden should drop out of the race or continue.
0:03:30 After July 4th weekend,
0:03:32 the president sent an open letter to Democrats
0:03:34 saying that despite all of the speculation
0:03:37 he is committed to staying in the race to the very end.
0:03:39 On MSNBC, the president said
0:03:42 he’s getting so frustrated by the elites.
0:03:44 What we’ve had here is that wealthy donors
0:03:46 are reportedly threatening to withhold donations
0:03:49 until Biden exits the race.
0:03:50 I think the way I would describe it
0:03:53 is if you bucket the donors into three buckets,
0:03:56 the whales, the dolphins and the minnows,
0:03:58 the small dollar donors.
0:04:00 I think the big donors,
0:04:02 although I just spoke with Reid Hoffman
0:04:04 and he says they’re concerned,
0:04:06 but I think they’re just sort of at a standstill.
0:04:08 Whereas the dolphins,
0:04:09 I would consider myself a dolphin.
0:04:11 Somebody gives thousands or tens of thousands,
0:04:13 but not hundreds of thousands or millions.
0:04:14 There were sort of an open revolt
0:04:17 that we’re calling very explicitly
0:04:19 for a change in the ticket.
0:04:21 And one of the things that frustrates me
0:04:24 is that the amount of incendiary pushback you get,
0:04:27 shut the hell up or just focus on Biden.
0:04:28 We need to unite.
0:04:29 It’s almost, it feels almost like a,
0:04:32 we accuse Republicans of being cultish
0:04:34 when they have this New Jerk reaction
0:04:36 of being devoted to Donald Trump,
0:04:38 regardless of the situation
0:04:40 or how insane his behavior is.
0:04:41 And I would argue there’s just,
0:04:44 the cult is just as strong on the far left.
0:04:46 Where you get this immediate pushback
0:04:48 of sign up or shut the hell up.
0:04:50 And the notion that there isn’t enough time,
0:04:52 which is sort of their go-to.
0:04:54 And also the only brand positioning right now
0:04:56 around a path to presidency is I’m not him,
0:04:59 specifically I, Joe Biden, I’m not him, Trump.
0:05:02 And I don’t think that’s a compelling value proposition.
0:05:04 And the notion that we don’t have enough time is just,
0:05:06 in my opinion, fucking ridiculous.
0:05:09 Britain had an election start to finish in six weeks.
0:05:13 France basically turned back the far right
0:05:16 and changed the entire complexion of the race
0:05:17 in about seven days.
0:05:18 By the way, I think that’s gonna be very interesting
0:05:20 to see what happens ’cause the far left,
0:05:22 in my opinion, can sometimes be almost as dangerous.
0:05:25 They’re well-meaning, but they can be bad,
0:05:27 maybe not as bad as the far right.
0:05:28 I’m gonna be very curious to see what happens in France
0:05:30 over the next couple of years.
0:05:32 Anyways, I think we could turn chicken shit
0:05:34 into chicken salad here.
0:05:35 What would you do?
0:05:39 You’d, the president obviously needs to step down.
0:05:39 It’s gotta be him.
0:05:42 There’s no kind of viable way to ask those delegates
0:05:43 to go somewhere else.
0:05:44 They’ve already committed to Biden,
0:05:47 but let’s assume that he decides to drop out of the race
0:05:49 with enough pressure, enough voices,
0:05:53 senators, congresspeople, donations come to a halt.
0:05:56 Finally, his wife says it would not be fair of me,
0:06:00 my dear Joe, to put you through this
0:06:02 or to have you go through this.
0:06:04 And I think a lot of this comes down to scenario planning.
0:06:05 So let’s talk through the scenarios.
0:06:08 By the way, scenario planning is not a means
0:06:09 of trying to predict the future,
0:06:11 but trying to imagine possible futures
0:06:14 and then run a strategy or a course of action
0:06:17 through all of those futures that has the best outcome.
0:06:21 And there’s some basics here, one, or basic scenarios.
0:06:24 One, he stays in the race and wins.
0:06:25 Good for him.
0:06:27 I think actually that’s the worst possible outcome
0:06:29 for Joseph Biden.
0:06:32 As someone who has been very involved in their parents’ life
0:06:35 as they have gone into their 70s and 80s,
0:06:38 I think President Biden, based on what I have seen
0:06:39 in terms of his cognitive decline,
0:06:41 is gonna have a very difficult four and a half years
0:06:45 ahead of him, much less trying to experience that decline
0:06:46 in what is the toughest job in the world.
0:06:49 I think this would just be a series of small private
0:06:53 and public humiliations with people hiding him.
0:06:55 Keep in mind the last three presidents to be reelected,
0:06:59 Clinton, Bush, and Obama were 52
0:07:03 when they were reelected on average versus 82.
0:07:05 The worst thing that could happen to his family
0:07:08 and reputation for Joe Biden is if he stays in the race
0:07:10 and he loses, he then becomes this pariah,
0:07:13 which is the ultimate historic example
0:07:16 of malignant narcissism that not only heard a woman’s right
0:07:19 to bodily autonomy, Ruth Bader Ginsburg,
0:07:21 delayed a lot of judges getting appointed,
0:07:25 Diane Feinstein, but Joseph Biden becomes
0:07:28 a malignant narcissist that let us slowly burn
0:07:31 to fascism when almost anyone else
0:07:34 probably would have staved off Donald Trump.
0:07:36 What we aren’t focused on is that Donald Trump
0:07:38 had an absolutely terrible debate
0:07:41 and that anybody else with a pulse in my view,
0:07:42 and I won’t even say with a pulse,
0:07:44 the Democratic bench is incredibly strong here.
0:07:46 How do we turn chicken shit into chicken salad?
0:07:49 You have a eight, six, and then four-member series
0:07:52 of debates all held the two weeks before the convention.
0:07:55 You have Julie Louie Dreyfus host the convention.
0:07:57 It’s a real convention where we nominate
0:07:59 and select somebody.
0:08:02 America gets to know just how incredibly strong
0:08:05 our ballot is and we mature a candidate
0:08:07 that not only scares the shit out of Biden
0:08:09 and tears him limb from limb in a debate,
0:08:11 which any of these would, Whitmer,
0:08:14 although publicly she said she’s out,
0:08:17 but can you imagine a nuisance on a debate stage
0:08:18 with the president?
0:08:23 Can you imagine the contrast in terms of height, youth, hair,
0:08:25 how articulate it is, how compassionate it is,
0:08:28 how many people and how many eye hops across the nation
0:08:32 when interviewed by Fox, CNN, the BBC, PBS would say,
0:08:36 “I’m gonna go with that young, good-looking guy, a lot, a lot.”
0:08:38 We would go from being six points down,
0:08:42 which by the way is the greatest margin to the upside
0:08:43 that Trump has ever enjoyed
0:08:45 since he started running for president in 2015
0:08:47 to being up probably five or six.
0:08:51 We would see the greatest swing in presidential politics
0:08:53 if we matured any one of these candidates
0:08:56 and even more powerfully, as we sometimes overestimate
0:08:59 the power of the president, would be the down ballot impact
0:09:01 because if the nation got a chance to see,
0:09:04 and they would, this would be the media spectacle
0:09:05 of the last decade.
0:09:09 If they got to see how powerful, smart, impressive
0:09:13 Josh Shapiro is, if they got to see Vice President Harris
0:09:15 on the debate stage where she shines
0:09:18 versus what has been a fairly mediocre tenure
0:09:21 as vice president, if they got to see Raphael Warnock,
0:09:23 if they got to see, there’s just so many governors,
0:09:25 there’s so many talented people.
0:09:29 Let Amy Klobuchar back on stage to talk about Annie Trust.
0:09:34 These are Pete Buttigieg, I mean, this is an impressive team
0:09:36 and the team of the best players wins
0:09:38 and Democrats would win up and down the ballot.
0:09:41 It would basically be a two week long commercial.
0:09:44 What do the voters who decide this election have in common?
0:09:46 They don’t give that much of a fuck about politics.
0:09:49 So like me in my 20s, oh, it’s the election this week.
0:09:50 Maybe I should vote.
0:09:51 And then they just start thinking
0:09:53 about general perception of these folks.
0:09:56 Let’s strengthen the perception of the Democratic Party
0:09:58 from the top of the ticket all the way down
0:10:01 and have a competition here, not a coronation.
0:10:04 But I believe if President Biden decides
0:10:06 to stay in the race, the strategy and the positioning
0:10:10 of I’m the other guy, which is his primary foot forward
0:10:12 is gonna not work as someone
0:10:15 has been branding his entire life.
0:10:17 I would love to be if I was a mendacious fuck
0:10:18 and didn’t care about our country
0:10:22 and had somehow decided to develop a fondness for fascism
0:10:23 and was advising the Trump administration
0:10:26 to be pretty easy, to be a three point communications plan.
0:10:30 One, run a video loop of the zombie apocalypse
0:10:31 of useful idiots that are elite colleges
0:10:33 and say, this is what happens when institutions
0:10:37 become 98% democratic as many of the faculties
0:10:39 are of these elite institutions.
0:10:42 Two, run another video loop of what’s happened
0:10:47 in the downtown metro areas of some of the biggest cities
0:10:49 on the West coast that are democratically controlled
0:10:51 and say, this is what happens when Democrats
0:10:52 get control of the city.
0:10:56 And finally three, run a series of edited videos
0:11:00 that basically portray the president as a vegetable.
0:11:04 And I just think, I think Biden is good a man
0:11:06 as he is as successful as the presidency
0:11:10 as he’s had as a better a president as he would be.
0:11:12 I think it’s gonna get slaughtered
0:11:14 against the media machine
0:11:17 and the perception of a more vigorous
0:11:18 former president Trump.
0:11:21 I really hope that people who have influence
0:11:23 over the president sit him down
0:11:26 and convince him that, look boss,
0:11:28 you drop out of this race and this is scenario three
0:11:32 and every room you walk into for the rest of your life,
0:11:35 you get a standing ovation and you are a top contender
0:11:38 to be chiseled into the side of Mount Rushmore.
0:11:42 This is the path to a better America, simply put.
0:11:45 And that is the president who has done an amazing job
0:11:48 needs to drop out and we need to mature, battle test
0:11:50 and rally behind another candidate
0:11:53 such that America continues to push back
0:11:54 on the greatest threat to democracy
0:11:56 and the greatest threat of the 20th century
0:11:58 and it’s emerging again and it’s a threat
0:12:01 we thought was going away, but similar to Jason
0:12:03 with just with a different hockey mask,
0:12:05 fascism is raring its ugly head
0:12:07 and we need to push back on it.
0:12:09 And this is not the guy to do it.
0:12:11 America has been the front line against fascism.
0:12:13 We will continue to need to be the front line
0:12:16 against the gender apartheid that’s taking place globally,
0:12:21 anti-Semitism, polarization, divisiveness, extremism,
0:12:24 climate change, an expansionary Russia,
0:12:28 a China that has its eyes on Taiwan, income inequality.
0:12:31 And let’s be honest, America is the most impressive country
0:12:32 in the world.
0:12:36 We need to mature the most impressive person in the party
0:12:39 to lead the Democratic party and be the front line.
0:12:41 And that is not the president.
0:12:42 That’s the bad news.
0:12:46 The good news is we have a ton of people
0:12:47 who could hold that line.
0:12:48 It is time.
0:12:50 We need someone else to enter the race.
0:12:52 President Biden needs to step down.
0:12:55 We’ll be right back for our conversation
0:12:57 with Admiral James DeVaritas.
0:13:03 Support for the show comes from Mint Mobile.
0:13:04 Getting rid of your pricey phone bill
0:13:06 could free up a lot of room in your summer budget.
0:13:09 It could mean extra snacks for your road trip
0:13:12 or one of those splurgy overpriced martinis on a night out.
0:13:14 Whatever your plans this summer,
0:13:16 Mint Mobile could help you keep a bit more cash
0:13:17 in your pocket.
0:13:19 By switching to Mint Mobile,
0:13:21 you get three months of premium wireless service
0:13:23 for just 15 bucks a month.
0:13:25 All their plans come with high-speed data
0:13:27 and unlimited talk and text delivered
0:13:29 on the nation’s largest 5G network.
0:13:31 You can use your own phone with any Mint Mobile plan
0:13:32 and bring your phone number
0:13:35 along with all your existing contacts.
0:13:36 To get this new customer offer
0:13:38 and your new three-month premium wireless plan
0:13:40 for just 15 bucks a month,
0:13:43 go to mintmobile.com/propg.
0:13:45 That’s mintmobile.com/propg.
0:13:48 Cut your wireless bill to 15 bucks a month
0:13:51 at mintmobile.com/propg.
0:13:53 $45 upfront payment required,
0:13:54 equivalent to $15 per month.
0:13:57 New customers on first three-month plan only.
0:14:00 Speeds slower above 40 gigabytes on unlimited plan.
0:14:03 Additional taxes, fees, and restrictions apply,
0:14:05 seeing Mint Mobile for details.
0:14:08 Support for Propg comes from AG1.
0:14:09 Okay, let’s get right to it.
0:14:13 I know my body, and if my gut isn’t functioning optimally,
0:14:15 it’ll be more challenging to absorb nutrients
0:14:16 from a healthy diet.
0:14:18 It’s the reason I’ve started using AG1
0:14:21 as they have doubled the amount of healthy bacteria
0:14:22 in the gut.
0:14:23 And I have to tell you,
0:14:26 using AG1 has made me feel just better.
0:14:28 I like the taste, it tastes okay,
0:14:30 but it tastes bad enough such that I know it’s good for me.
0:14:33 I know that sounds crazy, but I like it.
0:14:35 And every morning, I feel as if I’m doing something
0:14:37 that starts my day on a good footing.
0:14:39 AG1 is a foundational nutrition supplement
0:14:42 that delivers daily nutrients and gut health support
0:14:44 and is backed by multiple research studies
0:14:47 so you can trust what you’re putting into your body.
0:14:49 If you wanna take ownership of your health,
0:14:50 you can get started with AG1.
0:14:54 Try AG1 and get a free one-year supply of vitamin D3K2
0:14:57 and five free AG1 travel packs
0:15:01 with your first purchase at drinkag1.com/prof.
0:15:05 That’s drinkag1.com/prof.
0:15:08 So you’ve arrived.
0:15:11 You head to the brasserie, then the terrace.
0:15:12 Cocktail?
0:15:15 Don’t mind if I do.
0:15:17 You raise your glass to another guest
0:15:21 because you both know the holidays just beginning.
0:15:25 And you’re only in terminal three.
0:15:27 Welcome to Virgin Atlantic’s unique
0:15:29 upper-class clubhouse experience,
0:15:31 where you’ll feel like you’ve arrived
0:15:32 before you’ve taken off.
0:15:37 Virgin Atlantic, see the world differently.
0:15:44 (upbeat music)
0:15:50 – Welcome back.
0:15:52 Here’s our conversation with Admiral James DeVaritas,
0:15:55 a retired four-star US naval officer
0:15:56 and currently partner and vice chairman
0:15:58 of Global Affairs for the Carlisle Group,
0:16:00 a global investment firm.
0:16:02 Admiral DeVaritas, where does this podcast find you?
0:16:07 – I am in the northern part of Florida,
0:16:08 near Punavidra Beach.
0:16:11 It’s one of the beach towns for Jacksonville.
0:16:14 – So I would just love to get your thoughts.
0:16:16 As someone whose name was constantly floated
0:16:18 as a potential vice presidential candidate
0:16:23 for Secretary Clinton and other democratic hopefuls,
0:16:28 give us a sense for what you think is going on here.
0:16:31 And if you were to attempt to speculate
0:16:32 what might play out over the next week.
0:16:36 This is, I don’t know if it’s the strangest political moment
0:16:37 I’ve ever experienced.
0:16:40 Maybe I’m just, I’m much more attuned to it now,
0:16:42 but obviously a tremendous amount of doubt
0:16:44 around the Biden campaign,
0:16:47 but their camp says they’re steadfast
0:16:49 and their commitment to stay in the race,
0:16:53 but there’s sort of this drip, drip, drip of party elders
0:16:56 coming out and suggesting that he stepped down.
0:16:59 Give us a sense of someone who’s been pretty close to this
0:17:01 and somebody thinks a lot about strategy.
0:17:02 What do you think is going on here
0:17:04 that the public does or does not see
0:17:06 and what do you think plays out?
0:17:08 – I’ll give you the historical piece.
0:17:10 And I at least am old enough to remember
0:17:14 a similarly difficult moment to absorb.
0:17:16 And that was, of course, Watergate
0:17:18 and the resignation of a president
0:17:21 in advance of criminal proceedings
0:17:23 being brought against him, Richard Nixon.
0:17:25 That’s a long time ago.
0:17:30 So yeah, we’re in 50 years of kind of uncharted territory
0:17:35 by comparison, although we’ve seen now three impeachments,
0:17:39 one of Clinton and two of Trump.
0:17:41 So we’re not complete innocence
0:17:44 in this sort of strange season.
0:17:47 But here’s where I’m at on this one.
0:17:51 As I watched that debate, I felt sad for the country.
0:17:56 The choice we’re being presented is, at this moment,
0:18:01 a convicted felon with multiple, multiple character flaws
0:18:03 on full display.
0:18:05 And on the other side, an individual
0:18:09 for whom I have a lot of affection, a lot of respect.
0:18:14 But Father Time appears to me to have caught up with him
0:18:19 and he is not from all that I can see in a good place
0:18:23 to be prepared for four more years.
0:18:24 I think you could have a conversation
0:18:28 if we were looking at it for a year in advance,
0:18:31 but four more years when you look at the progression.
0:18:35 So a bad set of choices in terms of how it plays out,
0:18:38 I can answer that in three words, I don’t know,
0:18:41 and nobody does, literally nobody does.
0:18:44 Not even Joe Biden, in my view, knows
0:18:46 how this one’s gonna play out.
0:18:51 So what I think will happen over the next week to 10 days,
0:18:55 the Democratic Party is gonna have to make a choice
0:18:59 of either putting itself 100% behind a president
0:19:04 who seems physically frail and weak
0:19:06 and hope for the best in the fall,
0:19:10 or they’re going to have to find a new path.
0:19:12 And I’ll conclude with this, Professor.
0:19:15 There is nowhere in the Constitution
0:19:18 where it says Republican Party, Democratic Party,
0:19:20 someone said to me the other day,
0:19:21 oh, they have to go with Biden
0:19:24 because the Constitution demands,
0:19:28 neither Constitution nor law govern political parties.
0:19:32 We’ve had a plethora of political parties in this country
0:19:34 and they get to make up the rules.
0:19:38 And so they have every opportunity
0:19:40 to conduct a mini primary
0:19:43 or they could pass the baton to Kamala.
0:19:44 They’ve got a convention coming up.
0:19:48 I think we are in extremely unpredictable waters.
0:19:51 – Does the military or the arms, do they have a voice here?
0:19:55 – No, and you ought to be very glad that they do not.
0:20:00 Every military member at every grade raises his or her
0:20:03 right hand and swears an oath as follows.
0:20:07 I state your name to solemnly swear to support
0:20:10 and defend the Constitution of the United States
0:20:13 against all enemies, foreign and domestic.
0:20:16 That oath is sworn to the Constitution.
0:20:20 The military will resolutely avoid being embroiled in this
0:20:23 and that’s the kind of Republic we wanna be.
0:20:26 – That’s well said.
0:20:27 There’s a lot that’s uncomfortable about this
0:20:30 but one of those things is do you see
0:20:32 our adversaries being more emboldened
0:20:34 while we’re in a state of chaos?
0:20:37 Do you think they sense weakness and tumult
0:20:41 and are more inclined to be more offensive
0:20:43 or bold in their actions?
0:20:46 – I do and that is a significant risk
0:20:49 and you can break it down, frankly,
0:20:54 into two significant periods of high risk.
0:20:57 One is from now through the election.
0:21:02 I think there the risk is going to be a mal actor deciding
0:21:05 now would be a good time to launch a, for example,
0:21:08 massive cyber attack against the United States.
0:21:10 There’s distraction, there might not be
0:21:12 a resolute response to that.
0:21:14 It’s a little ambiguous.
0:21:17 That period between now and the election,
0:21:22 simply because mal actors, Russia, China, North Korea,
0:21:26 et cetera will have a tendency to believe
0:21:29 we’re too distracted to respond.
0:21:31 That’s one package of time.
0:21:34 After the elections got, unfortunately,
0:21:37 I think we’re gonna have this inner regnum
0:21:41 in which it would seem to me at least a better
0:21:44 than even chance of one side or the other
0:21:45 if it’s a close election,
0:21:48 which it appears it probably will be.
0:21:52 There’ll be a further series of legal challenges.
0:21:56 There could be untoward events like January 6th.
0:21:59 Who knows that second period of time
0:22:03 until the inauguration of the new president,
0:22:08 I think is a second and somewhat even more risky period.
0:22:10 So yes, we need to be leaning forward.
0:22:13 You asked about the military.
0:22:15 The military is not looking internally,
0:22:20 but I assure you the intelligence agencies,
0:22:23 the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the combatant commanders
0:22:26 in position in which I served for eight years,
0:22:27 two different combatant commands,
0:22:31 they are looking outward to try and see
0:22:34 any signs of risk directed against the country
0:22:38 during these very, I think, concerning periods
0:22:41 from now through the inauguration.
0:22:43 – Let’s talk about the Middle East.
0:22:45 On MSNBC, you said that you believe
0:22:48 there’s a one in three chance at best
0:22:50 for a ceasefire in Gaza.
0:22:52 Talk us through how you landed there.
0:22:56 – Number one, the Israelis feel
0:23:01 as though they have not yet completely dismantled
0:23:05 the military capability of Hamas, but they’re close.
0:23:09 And you hear that even from Prime Minister Netanyahu,
0:23:12 certainly from the Israeli general staff.
0:23:14 So I think temporarily speaking,
0:23:18 the Israelis are closing in on eliminating Hamas.
0:23:21 And I believe I’ve said this to you before, Scott,
0:23:26 but the military center of gravity is actually not Hamas.
0:23:31 The military center of gravity is that tunnel complex.
0:23:35 400 miles of tunnels, the Israelis are destroying those.
0:23:40 When those are done, Hamas loses its opportunity
0:23:43 to train, equip, organize, and launch attacks
0:23:46 as they did in October.
0:23:51 So that’s a military equation that is coming to fruition.
0:23:54 I think that’s pretty close.
0:23:58 So that gets me to still more combat opportunities
0:24:02 and actions, but probably the Israelis
0:24:05 are getting in a position to make an accommodation.
0:24:09 On the Hamas side, what I see is a lot of pressure.
0:24:11 It’s been insufficient so far,
0:24:16 but increasing pressure from both Qatar and from Egypt
0:24:21 to get to the point of pressuring Hamas to take a deal.
0:24:26 I feel both sides are kind of closing toward it.
0:24:29 If you’d asked me three months ago,
0:24:32 I think I was saying about a one in five chance.
0:24:35 Now I’m up to about a one in three chance.
0:24:40 The forces pulling against it are,
0:24:44 in addition to the two sides we just discussed, Iran.
0:24:49 Iran would like nothing better than to see Israel
0:24:52 continue to be targeted as resources drain,
0:24:54 see this fighting go on in Gaza.
0:24:57 So Iran is kind of pulling against it,
0:24:59 but I’ll conclude with this.
0:25:01 Now the Iranians have had an election,
0:25:05 elected somebody, I hate to use these two words
0:25:07 in the same sentence, Iranian moderate,
0:25:12 but by Iranian standards, a relatively moderate candidate,
0:25:16 there might be a little loosening of some of those activities.
0:25:20 So when you put all that together, it’s not a slam dunk,
0:25:24 but I think it’s getting close to one in three,
0:25:27 maybe even a little better than that right now.
0:25:29 – You referenced in one of the strengths of American,
0:25:33 I agree, is that our good men and women in uniform
0:25:36 basically say, all right, good or bad decisions,
0:25:39 it’s the Oval Office’s decision,
0:25:42 and we respect the command and control structure here.
0:25:44 I thought it was really unusual or extraordinary
0:25:47 that the IDF publicly came out and said,
0:25:50 we need to see an end of the war
0:25:52 or calling for an end of the war.
0:25:56 That struck me as if you at some point came out
0:26:01 and said to Trump or Obama in a conflict,
0:26:02 it’s time to end this.
0:26:05 I thought that was pretty bold, your thoughts?
0:26:10 – Beyond bold, and from a US norm perspective,
0:26:16 that officer, she or he would have been fired the next day.
0:26:21 We do not want our admirals and generals,
0:26:24 no matter how senior, opining publicly
0:26:28 about what is in essence a political decision.
0:26:30 Closest I can come to that, by the way,
0:26:33 would be Douglas MacArthur, five-star general,
0:26:37 a general of the armies, victor of World War II.
0:26:41 Now he goes through and is in charge of Japan,
0:26:44 all going well, he comes back in command
0:26:47 for the Korean War, and ultimately the president,
0:26:51 Kerry Truman, had to fire him for his insubordination
0:26:54 because he advocated ramping up the campaign,
0:26:58 possibly using nuclear weapons and attacking China.
0:27:02 We’re not paying the generals to opine about that in public.
0:27:06 So yes, I was quite surprised, verging on shock.
0:27:11 And finally, I know the IDF extremely well.
0:27:13 Spent four years when I was NATO commander,
0:27:16 my other side hustle was I was in charge
0:27:20 of US-Israeli military-to-military relations.
0:27:23 So I was in Israel quite a bit, became very good friends,
0:27:26 for example, with General Benny Gantz,
0:27:28 the former head of the IDF,
0:27:32 General Gabi Ashkenazi, former head of the IDF.
0:27:36 I can’t imagine either of them, while in uniform,
0:27:40 opining on that level of political controversy.
0:27:42 Really shocking.
0:27:46 Benchmark, the IDF’s capabilities and technology
0:27:50 and personnel relative to the other fighting forces
0:27:54 in the Middle East, or even say, for example, Russia.
0:27:58 – The IDF has advanced technology.
0:28:01 I’ll give you three very concrete examples.
0:28:05 One, they reportedly have nuclear weapons.
0:28:10 Two, the Israelis have among, I’d say, the top four,
0:28:14 certainly top five cyber capabilities,
0:28:16 offensive and defensive alike.
0:28:21 And they have a superb air force that has the ability
0:28:24 to conduct long range bombing attacks,
0:28:26 has fairly good refueling,
0:28:30 although they’re buying additional capability from the US.
0:28:32 Nobody else in the region remotely
0:28:34 is at that level with them.
0:28:38 What they don’t have is massive manpower.
0:28:43 They’re a nation of about 9 million, about 7 million Jews.
0:28:49 So it’s a limited manpower pool compared to Iran,
0:28:55 compared to any other potential opponent in the region.
0:28:58 They don’t have the big pool of manpower to draw on.
0:29:02 But if you ask me, which hand of cards would you wanna play?
0:29:04 You know, as a general or an admiral,
0:29:09 I’d grab the Israeli military, it’s a jewel.
0:29:10 – You mentioned the tunnels.
0:29:13 And it strikes me that every time there’s a major conflict,
0:29:15 out of it comes not a surprise,
0:29:18 but a piece of technology that played a bigger role.
0:29:21 Like we saw tanks in World War I, but my sense is,
0:29:25 they really had their day when Hitler rolled his tanks
0:29:29 into Poland and was met with the Polish cavalry.
0:29:32 And we saw, okay, tanks are better, right?
0:29:35 And then we saw aircraft and jet engine,
0:29:37 you know, all sorts of stuff, radar.
0:29:41 It’s, you said, or there’s two words,
0:29:42 and you said one of them that struck me
0:29:44 that we’re gonna hear a lot more about
0:29:47 in terms of military strategy and technology and machinery.
0:29:50 One is tunnels and the other is drones.
0:29:51 I’d love your thoughts on that.
0:29:55 And if there are others that are coming out of this conflict.
0:29:57 – Yeah, tunnels actually have been with us
0:30:00 in warfare for centuries.
0:30:04 But the degree to which Hamas was able
0:30:08 to build this underground complex,
0:30:12 pretty striking given the restrictions on Hamas,
0:30:16 comparably the North Koreans have a very sophisticated
0:30:19 underground tunnel connectivity system.
0:30:23 So yes, tunnels I think are something that is old,
0:30:25 but is new again.
0:30:27 Drones, let’s expand that idea.
0:30:29 Let’s say unmanned.
0:30:32 So that means everything from satellites in space.
0:30:33 A satellite is a drone, right?
0:30:38 It’s an unmanned vehicle, long dwells, surveillance drones,
0:30:40 command and control drones.
0:30:43 What you think of as reapers and predators,
0:30:47 attack drones, carrying missiles, surface drones.
0:30:52 The Ukrainian Navy is using surface boats,
0:30:55 drones to strike Russian warships
0:30:58 and drones go all the way to the bottom of the sea.
0:31:03 Here’s the third piece of the triad that I would mention.
0:31:05 It’s artificial intelligence.
0:31:09 And we’re seeing the edges of that emerging now in Ukraine,
0:31:14 where AI is being used to direct these drone swarms
0:31:18 on both sides of that firing line, still very nascent.
0:31:21 But as I look at the future of warfare,
0:31:24 it’s unmanned, cyber.
0:31:26 It is tunnel complexes.
0:31:30 I’m gonna throw in special forces into that mix.
0:31:32 And above all, it’s artificial intelligence
0:31:35 that will knit all of this together.
0:31:37 – The truce that Biden outlined,
0:31:40 kind of this five-step truce.
0:31:43 And it includes rebuilding of Gaza.
0:31:48 Like, realistically, and I don’t mean to sound like a nihilist
0:31:53 or a fatalist here, isn’t any truce given the history here
0:31:57 just kind of ready to be broken again?
0:32:02 I’m struggling, I recognize that you’re a military man,
0:32:04 but as someone who’s been considered
0:32:06 for these diplomatic posts,
0:32:10 what do you think, is there a sustainable state of being
0:32:12 there right now, or could there be?
0:32:17 – One phrase that has always stuck in my mind
0:32:20 from former chairman of the Joint Chiefs,
0:32:23 General Pete Pace, was asked a question roughly
0:32:25 along those lines, and he said,
0:32:29 “War will continue in the Middle East
0:32:31 until the people of the Middle East
0:32:35 learn to love their children more
0:32:37 than they hate their enemies.”
0:32:40 That’s a very profound line.
0:32:43 And it gets to your point that is it possible
0:32:48 to undo centuries, frankly, millennia of bitterness,
0:32:53 particularly between these three competing religious groups
0:32:54 in the Middle East.
0:32:56 There’s a fabulous book about this
0:32:59 written probably 20 years ago, it’s a great title,
0:33:03 The Battle for God, it’s by Karen Armstrong,
0:33:07 and it’s a book about Judaism, Christianity, and Islam,
0:33:11 and their seemingly endless ability to find their way
0:33:13 to war and bitterness and hatred.
0:33:17 So the short answer to the question is,
0:33:21 until the people of the Middle East, collectively,
0:33:26 decide they are going to reject that nihilistic aspects
0:33:29 of their religious bitterness and disagreements
0:33:32 and free themselves from the past
0:33:37 and the bitterness over previous jihads
0:33:42 and massacres in camps, and there are plenty on all sides.
0:33:45 Until that happens, I don’t think there’s a quick solution.
0:33:50 Now, on a more positive note, if there is a path forward,
0:33:56 I think the table stakes are a reconstruction of Gaza.
0:34:01 I think table stakes are a Arab security force,
0:34:05 not an Israeli security force, an Arab security force
0:34:08 that takes over security for Gaza.
0:34:12 And third and most difficult for the Israelis to accept
0:34:14 some kind of a path towards statehood.
0:34:17 I think if you could get in that zip code,
0:34:22 then you could build on the existing diplomatic relations
0:34:26 between Israel and some of its Arab neighbors.
0:34:29 That’s the point where the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
0:34:30 could come in, Scott,
0:34:34 and bring a lot of resources to bear on this problem.
0:34:38 All those are possible, but we talked percentages before.
0:34:40 I think it’s a one in 10 chance
0:34:42 that we can really resolve this
0:34:45 with something as simple as a five-step plan.
0:34:47 (upbeat music)
0:34:49 We’ll be right back.
0:34:55 Support for Prop G comes from Life360.
0:34:56 We’ve all had the infuriating experience
0:34:58 of getting ready to leave and then realizing you’ve lost
0:35:00 something you absolutely can’t go about your day without,
0:35:03 your phone, your wallet, your keys.
0:35:04 I know I’m probably bringing back
0:35:08 horrible anxiety memories just talking about it.
0:35:10 I basically lose everything.
0:35:14 I just assume that I will lose my phone and my keys today,
0:35:15 and I just don’t get upset.
0:35:17 But now, you can save yourself the anxiety
0:35:20 with tile trackers from Life360.
0:35:21 You can attach a tile to your keys,
0:35:24 put one in your wallet, or on whatever it is
0:35:25 you don’t want to lose.
0:35:27 Then you simply use the app to ring the tile
0:35:28 so you can find it.
0:35:29 Can’t hear the ring.
0:35:31 You can see your tile’s location on the app’s map.
0:35:33 Tiles can even reverse ring your phone,
0:35:35 even if it’s on silent.
0:35:36 And unlike other trackers,
0:35:38 it can even track stolen items without tipping off thieves.
0:35:41 You just tile it, track it, and find it.
0:35:44 You can keep track of what’s important with tile.
0:35:47 Visit Tile.com today and use code PROPG
0:35:49 to get 15% off all tiles.
0:35:51 That’s Tile.com code PROPG.
0:35:59 Support for PROPG comes from Miro.
0:36:02 If you’ve ever worked with a big team on a big project,
0:36:03 you know how easy it can be to lose sight
0:36:04 of the bigger picture.
0:36:08 A small list of tasks can quickly grow to be in mountain.
0:36:10 When that happens, you need the right tool
0:36:11 that’ll help broaden your view.
0:36:13 Miro can give you the perspective shift
0:36:16 you need to head into your next team sprint with confidence.
0:36:18 Miro is a visual collaboration platform
0:36:20 that gives your team more clarity
0:36:22 with its host of features and functionalities,
0:36:25 which work seamlessly with existing tool sets.
0:36:26 With Miro’s plan or widget,
0:36:28 you can connect with Jira or Azure
0:36:30 to visualize and filter tasks.
0:36:32 Miro makes any sprint ritual,
0:36:35 whether it be a standup, estimation, sprint planning,
0:36:38 or retrospective, more efficient, clear,
0:36:39 and ultimately more productive.
0:36:41 You can make sure your team has the content they need
0:36:43 before devoting time and resources
0:36:44 to get the work done.
0:36:46 With Miro, planning team tasks is smoother
0:36:48 and gives everyone a clear sense of mission.
0:36:51 For every sprint, whether you work in product design,
0:36:54 engineering, UX, agile, or marketing,
0:36:57 bring your team together on Miro.
0:36:59 Your first three Miro boards are for free
0:37:01 when you sign up today at Miro.com.
0:37:05 That’s three free boards at M-I-R-O dot com.
0:37:11 Support for this podcast comes from Vanta.
0:37:12 Whether you’re starting or scaling
0:37:14 your company’s security program,
0:37:16 demonstrating top-notch security practices
0:37:19 and establishing trust is more important than ever.
0:37:23 Vanta automates compliance for SOC2, ISO 27001,
0:37:25 and more, saving you time and money
0:37:27 while helping you build customer trust.
0:37:29 Plus, you can streamline security reviews
0:37:31 by automating questionnaires
0:37:33 and demonstrating your security posture
0:37:35 with a customer-facing trust center
0:37:37 all powered by Vanta AI.
0:37:40 Over 7,000 global companies like Atlassian, FlowHealth,
0:37:43 and Quora use Vanta to manage risk
0:37:45 and proof security in real time.
0:37:49 Get $1,000 off Vanta when you go to vanta.com/box.
0:37:53 That’s vanta.com/box for $1,000 off.
0:38:02 – Since we last spoke a few months ago,
0:38:05 the state of play in Ukraine.
0:38:08 – Yeah, let’s catch up.
0:38:13 Since you and I spoke last, Russia has been on the front foot,
0:38:18 making some gains in the northeast of Ukraine,
0:38:23 putting some pressure on the second largest city, Kharkiv.
0:38:28 You could kinda see Putin with some air under his wings.
0:38:32 What has changed, and how often do you get to put these words
0:38:36 in one sentence, the U.S. Congress did a good job.
0:38:37 I’ll say him again.
0:38:39 U.S. Congress did a good job.
0:38:43 Finally, having exhausted all other possibilities,
0:38:47 they did a good job in that they provided $60 billion
0:38:52 in military aid, which matches the roughly $70 billion
0:38:55 the Europeans have put toward this project.
0:38:59 So now there’s real combat equipment flowing forward,
0:39:02 and I feel the momentum is shifting back.
0:39:05 Bottom line, however, is, as I think I told you,
0:39:07 probably six months ago.
0:39:10 Ultimately, I think this will end in a stalemate.
0:39:14 It’ll end probably roughly where the battle lines
0:39:19 are now drawn with Putin in control of about 15% of Ukraine.
0:39:24 Ukrainians will hate that, but the quid pro quo for them
0:39:27 would be security guarantees,
0:39:29 a path toward membership in NATO,
0:39:31 probably in the three year future,
0:39:34 and a membership in the European Union.
0:39:39 That’s a complicated problem boiled down to a few sentences,
0:39:41 but I think that’s how this one ends up,
0:39:45 and therefore I think we’ll probably see more stalemate,
0:39:48 a little bit back and forth on these firing lines
0:39:50 through the fall U.S. election.
0:39:53 That’ll be the moment for a negotiation.
0:39:56 – The elections are, there feels like there’s a leftward
0:40:01 breeze coming out of Europe, which is shocked people.
0:40:05 And I was reading about the elections in France,
0:40:08 and many of us were kind of celebrating the notion
0:40:11 that it was great that they kind of left,
0:40:13 center left and then the far left got together
0:40:16 and decided to coordinate to stave off the far right.
0:40:19 And I think initially there’s a feeling of celebration,
0:40:22 but when I look at some of the far left policies
0:40:25 that I think the center left will have to accommodate,
0:40:28 they’re fiercely anti-NATO is my impression.
0:40:33 – What do these recent events and elections, new parties,
0:40:36 what is the impact on NATO as an alliance moving forward?
0:40:40 – I will come to that essentially tactical question
0:40:41 in a moment.
0:40:46 Can we just step back for a moment and celebrate democracy?
0:40:51 In the last month, over 2 billion people voted in elections
0:40:56 that from what I can see were free and fair
0:40:59 and delivered some surprising results.
0:41:03 900 million people voted in the Indian election,
0:41:05 and the outcome was kind of a surprise,
0:41:08 a body check to Mr. Modi.
0:41:13 Mexico elects the first woman and the first Jew
0:41:16 in the most Catholic and patriarchal country,
0:41:18 arguably in the Americas.
0:41:22 In South Africa, the ruling party gets a very significant
0:41:23 body check.
0:41:28 In the European parliament, another 500 million people vote,
0:41:32 and it’s a, like you said, a little bit of a right wing,
0:41:36 left wing, kind of hard to read, depends on the country.
0:41:38 And then you live in London, Scott.
0:41:41 We see a complete shift in the government there,
0:41:43 coming from the left.
0:41:46 And of course, as you allude to the results in France.
0:41:49 Now you can like it or lump it on a variety
0:41:52 of those different candidates and outcomes,
0:41:55 but I say hail to democracy.
0:41:58 It’s delivering some surprising outcomes
0:42:02 in some what appear to me to be free and fair elections.
0:42:04 That’s a good thing in my view,
0:42:07 especially as we constantly, as we should,
0:42:10 wring our hands about the authoritarianism in the world.
0:42:13 Let’s keep democracy in perspective.
0:42:15 As Churchill said, the worst form of government,
0:42:17 except for all the others.
0:42:20 So that’s the strategic chapeau.
0:42:25 In terms of NATO, it’s a mixture of reactions that I have.
0:42:28 UK won’t make a bit of difference.
0:42:31 UK is going to continue to strongly support NATO,
0:42:34 particularly having walked away from the European Union.
0:42:37 In France, you’re right to worry
0:42:40 about the tenancies of the far left.
0:42:43 Macron, I think, has his strengths and weaknesses,
0:42:48 don’t we all, but he has come around on NATO.
0:42:51 And I think he will work with the left
0:42:56 to at least ensure that Ukraine continues to get support.
0:42:58 And that’s the main ball right now.
0:43:01 Germany, I think, is going to continue
0:43:03 to increase its defense budget.
0:43:06 Poland is now spending as much on defense
0:43:09 as the United States on a per capita basis.
0:43:12 Maybe a little more, believe it or not.
0:43:15 And there are other examples in the alliance.
0:43:19 So overall, the elections are gonna cause
0:43:24 that transatlantic bridge to creak just a little bit.
0:43:29 But I think as I look at the NATO situation going forward,
0:43:32 I think the alliance is going to continue
0:43:34 to be in a pretty strong position.
0:43:37 And by the way, I’ll ask the follow-on question.
0:43:38 Well, wait a minute, Admiral,
0:43:41 what if Donald Trump is elected president?
0:43:45 Someone who has talked publicly about pulling out a NATO.
0:43:46 I don’t see it.
0:43:50 I think Trump, like all of us, has strengths and weaknesses.
0:43:53 Ultimately, he’s pretty transactional.
0:43:55 I think if the Europeans continue
0:43:57 to increase their defense budget
0:43:59 and their spending goes up,
0:44:01 Trump would ultimately say,
0:44:03 “Yeah, that’s pretty good value for the dollar
0:44:05 for us to stay with NATO.”
0:44:09 So I think NATO comes out of all of this,
0:44:11 certainly not blaze of glory,
0:44:14 but as a pretty solid alliance.
0:44:19 – So it feels like we’re going back to Ukraine.
0:44:22 There’s some winners, right?
0:44:25 I would imagine the industrial military complex
0:44:28 or weapons producers in the US are winners.
0:44:31 I also imagine that China is a big winner.
0:44:32 They’re getting cheaper oil
0:44:37 and all of a sudden, they become an integral,
0:44:40 crucial partner for Russia.
0:44:42 Give us your read on China as it relates
0:44:45 to the war in Ukraine and what that means
0:44:49 in terms of everyone’s favorite, you know,
0:44:53 bogeyman, the possible invasion of Taiwan.
0:44:55 – Yeah, I’d love to.
0:44:59 Let me start with a bit of advice for Vladimir Putin.
0:45:02 And I despise Vladimir Putin.
0:45:04 You know, you may or may not know,
0:45:08 I have 50 medals from 29 different countries.
0:45:10 The foreign decoration I’m proudest of
0:45:13 is that I’m sanctioned by the Kremlin.
0:45:15 I’d put that at the top of my medal stack.
0:45:18 So I despise Vladimir Putin,
0:45:21 but if I were going to give him advice,
0:45:23 I would say President Putin,
0:45:26 be very careful of your relationship with China.
0:45:30 You are about to become an extremely junior partner
0:45:31 in that relationship.
0:45:33 And think of it this way, Scott,
0:45:36 you’re the economist, you sit in Beijing,
0:45:37 you look north, what do you see?
0:45:42 You see Siberia, this vast, empty land space.
0:45:45 It’s the size of the continental United States.
0:45:47 Maybe 25 million people live there.
0:45:48 That’s it.
0:45:51 That’s Russia to the east of the Euro mountains.
0:45:54 Here’s what is there.
0:45:58 Oil, gas, diamonds, rarers,
0:46:01 arable land, timber, fresh water.
0:46:02 You get the picture.
0:46:05 The Chinese look at that like my dog looks
0:46:06 at a ribeye steak.
0:46:08 It looks really good.
0:46:10 Putin is really taking Russia down
0:46:13 a strategic rabbit hole here.
0:46:18 In terms of how the war in Ukraine looks from Beijing,
0:46:20 you know, if I were President Xi,
0:46:22 I would be scratching my head.
0:46:26 Just over two years ago at the Olympics,
0:46:29 President Putin told his best friend forever,
0:46:33 President Xi, hey, don’t tell anybody,
0:46:35 but I’m going to invade Ukraine.
0:46:38 And in five days, I’m going to sweep that country.
0:46:41 I’m going to grab that little comedian,
0:46:43 Volodymyr Zelensky, I’m going to throw him
0:46:47 in a Florida prison, never to be heard from again.
0:46:50 And then I’m going to have control of Ukraine,
0:46:54 which is full of all kinds of wonderful natural resources,
0:46:58 oil and gas in the Black Sea, a huge agrarian factory.
0:46:59 It’s all going to be mine.
0:47:00 That’s what Xi heard.
0:47:02 Here’s what he’s seeing.
0:47:05 He’s seen two and a half years of the Russian military
0:47:10 stumbling around incapable of overrunning a nation
0:47:13 that it should have swept in the first week or two
0:47:16 before the Western aid got there.
0:47:19 Now Putin has missed the window to do that.
0:47:24 So Xi, his first question is, in terms of himself,
0:47:26 you know, those Russian generals are pretty bad.
0:47:30 I wonder what my Chinese generals are like.
0:47:31 He has no idea.
0:47:34 He hasn’t had a general hear a shot fired in anger,
0:47:37 not a single Chinese general.
0:47:40 They haven’t been in a war of any kind
0:47:43 since a dust up with Vietnam and not in a serious war
0:47:44 since the Korean War.
0:47:47 That’s 70 plus years ago.
0:47:51 So the point is she has a lot of doubt watching that.
0:47:55 He also has a lot of doubt about sanctions.
0:47:57 He knows there would be sanctions imposed
0:47:58 if he attacked Taiwan.
0:48:01 He’s looking at what’s happening to Russia.
0:48:04 So that’s, I think, a second warning shot for him.
0:48:06 And thirdly, if he’s smart,
0:48:11 he’s looking at how those Ukrainians are fighting like hell.
0:48:13 You know, I don’t know if the Taiwanese will fight,
0:48:15 but I’ve been to Taiwan.
0:48:18 I’ve met Madam Sai, the former president,
0:48:20 President Lai, the new president.
0:48:22 I’ve met their national security team.
0:48:26 I’ve seen their military in training exercises.
0:48:27 I think they’ll fight.
0:48:29 I think they’ll fight hard.
0:48:30 And by the way, that island
0:48:32 would be a resistance fighter’s dream.
0:48:36 It’s mountainous, wooded, surrounded by water.
0:48:38 That’s not an easy nut to crack
0:48:41 across a hundred miles of very difficult sea.
0:48:45 So bottom line, I think she is playing this one
0:48:47 very intelligently.
0:48:50 He’s getting tons of free oil and gas from Russia.
0:48:53 He’s insisting they hard pipe it to the east, to him,
0:48:55 so that can’t be undone.
0:48:58 He is doing everything possible
0:49:01 to create that sense of junior partnership
0:49:02 on the part of Putin.
0:49:04 I think he’s succeeding at doing that.
0:49:08 And I think he’s too smart to launch an invasion of Taiwan,
0:49:11 at least for the foreseeable future.
0:49:13 – Admiral James Stavridis is a retired four-star
0:49:15 US naval officer.
0:49:17 He is currently partner and vice chairman,
0:49:19 global affairs of the Carlisle Group,
0:49:21 a global investment firm and his chair
0:49:24 of the Board of Trustees of the Rockefeller Foundation.
0:49:27 Admiral Stavridis has published 13 books on leadership,
0:49:30 The Oceans, Maritime Affairs in Latin America,
0:49:32 as well as hundreds of articles and leading journals.
0:49:35 His forthcoming book, The Restless Wave,
0:49:37 a novel of the United States Navy
0:49:38 will be published on October 8th.
0:49:41 He joins us from his home in Florida.
0:49:43 In terms of economy of words, Admiral,
0:49:47 I feel as if our listeners get so much insight
0:49:48 in so little time.
0:49:52 So thanks for your, thanks for your crisp insights.
0:49:53 – Thank you, sir.
0:49:55 I’d love to come back and talk about World War II
0:49:57 with you when The Restless Wave comes out.
0:49:58 – I would love that.
0:49:59 I think I’ll subside a bit.
0:50:00 I would love that.
0:50:01 Thank you, Admiral.
0:50:03 (upbeat music)
0:50:08 (upbeat music)
0:50:14 – Audra of Happiness.
0:50:16 It’s difficult, but you need to train yourself
0:50:18 to try and see the best in people
0:50:20 when you don’t know what’s going on.
0:50:23 I’m getting, I don’t know if the term is paranoid,
0:50:25 but I’m here in Europe and something I’ve noticed,
0:50:27 I was in Turkey.
0:50:28 We were on a boat in Greece,
0:50:30 and then we disembarked in Bodrum,
0:50:32 which is a beautiful part of the world,
0:50:34 and we’d spent time there 10 years ago,
0:50:35 and we decided to go back.
0:50:38 Turkey has had, what’s the term?
0:50:40 I don’t like Turkey’s policies on Israel,
0:50:42 and I probably would have rethought the trip
0:50:45 had we had more notice and it didn’t involve
0:50:46 rearranging the travel plans for other people.
0:50:50 But the thing I noticed that really bummed me out
0:50:52 when I was in Bodrum is that it felt like
0:50:53 there were just no Americans
0:50:55 and no Western Europeans there.
0:50:56 And it bummed me out.
0:50:59 I thought we were just withdrawing from one another,
0:51:00 that we’re sequestering.
0:51:05 It seems like we’re turning into Western Europe and the US
0:51:07 versus everybody else, or is that true?
0:51:09 That’s probably not true,
0:51:11 but it does feel like we’re separating.
0:51:12 And it’s really disappointing.
0:51:16 And I was thinking about how wonderful my life has been
0:51:19 as an adult because of commercial jet transportation
0:51:23 and a fairly neoliberal viewpoint across all nations,
0:51:28 including Turkey and the Gulf and Asia
0:51:31 that really welcome people from different cultures
0:51:32 and appreciate them.
0:51:35 And we sort of lay down our differences
0:51:37 and enjoy each other’s food and company.
0:51:39 And one of the things I love about American universities
0:51:41 is it brings in people from all over the world.
0:51:43 I just think you’re less inclined to declare war on a nation
0:51:45 if a lot of people in that nation have spent a lot of time
0:51:47 with people from the other nation.
0:51:49 I think mingling, mixing,
0:51:51 interracial marriages are really important.
0:51:53 We are supposed to, we are supposed to mix.
0:51:54 We are supposed to,
0:51:57 there was a reason that mutts are healthier and happier.
0:52:00 We’re not supposed to sequester and fall in love
0:52:03 and be friends and have political alliances
0:52:04 only with people like us.
0:52:06 We benefit from this diversity.
0:52:09 And I worry that we’re in fact sequestering
0:52:11 and bifurcating, if you will.
0:52:13 Anyways, having said that,
0:52:18 I was at a table today and I’m staying here in Munich
0:52:22 and there was a table of four or five people next to me,
0:52:23 four guys.
0:52:26 And I don’t know if they were speaking Arabic.
0:52:27 I think they were.
0:52:29 And they started passing around a phone
0:52:31 and I didn’t know what was going on.
0:52:32 And it was clear, it became clear
0:52:33 they were showing videos of me
0:52:36 and then all turning around and staring at me.
0:52:39 And I found it sort of threatening and intimidating.
0:52:42 And I went to kind of a dark place
0:52:44 and then I thought about it and I thought,
0:52:47 they’re probably just a group of guys here like me
0:52:52 to see the semifinals of Spain and France
0:52:54 and recognize me from one of my videos
0:52:56 and we’re talking about it.
0:52:59 And so when they got up, I said, “Hey guys.”
0:53:01 And I just tried to be friendly and nice
0:53:03 and they were friendly and nice back.
0:53:05 And I use it as a cautionary tale
0:53:08 that it’s easy to digress as you get older
0:53:11 into this sort of the walls are closing in on you
0:53:15 and become less and less comfortable without situations.
0:53:17 And you have, especially if you struggle a little bit
0:53:20 with depression or anxiety or anger as I do,
0:53:23 you have a tendency to make snap judgments
0:53:24 and think the worst of people.
0:53:26 And the reality is the vast majority of people out there
0:53:28 are like you, they’re good people who love their families
0:53:32 looking for a nice time, good citizens.
0:53:33 But it was sort of a,
0:53:35 I don’t wanna call it a cautionary tale,
0:53:37 but it reminded me that if I wanna be happier
0:53:40 and I want a better world, I need to assume the best.
0:53:44 I need to see the world and see people as a glass half full.
0:53:46 (upbeat music)
0:53:48 This episode was produced by Caroline Shagren.
0:53:51 Jennifer Sanchez is our associate producer
0:53:53 and Jew Burroughs is our technical director.
0:53:54 Thank you for listening to the Prop G Pod
0:53:56 from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
0:53:59 We will catch you on Saturday for “No Mercy, No Malice”
0:54:00 as read by George Hahn.
0:54:03 And please follow our Prop G Markets Pod
0:54:05 wherever you get your pods for new episodes
0:54:06 every Monday and Thursday.
0:54:09 The Prop G Markets Pod was number one in business.
0:54:10 I think it’s one of the best
0:54:13 or most successful new pods in a while.
0:54:14 We’re really excited about it.
0:54:16 With my co-host, Ed Elson,
0:54:18 the 14 year old Irish person,
0:54:20 not sure he’s 26 and he’s British.
0:54:23 But anyways, please tune in to Prop G Markets
0:54:26 wherever you get your pods every Monday and Thursday.
0:54:31 Plain strains and automobiles, that’s how we get around.
0:54:32 But it hasn’t always been the case.
0:54:34 For agents, humans have been adapting
0:54:36 and revolutionizing how we travel.
0:54:38 So what does the future hold?
0:54:39 That’s what we’re gonna be exploring
0:54:43 in our new special series on pivot, the future of travel.
0:54:45 Whether it’s electric powered planes,
0:54:48 trains that go at hyper speeds or automobiles
0:54:51 that are full self-driving, someday they will be,
0:54:53 even though Elon promises them far too early.
0:54:55 In any case, it’s really important to talk
0:54:55 about where we’re going
0:54:57 and what we’re gonna do about climate change
0:54:58 and a range of things.
0:55:00 Tune in to the future of travel,
0:55:03 a pivot special series brought to you by Virgin Atlantic.
0:55:05 You can find it on the pivot feed
0:55:07 wherever you get your podcasts.
0:55:17 [BLANK_AUDIO]
Admiral James Stavridis, a retired four-star U.S. naval officer, and currently Partner and Vice Chairman of Global Affairs for The Carlyle Group, joins Scott to discuss foreign affairs and the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.
Scott opens with his thoughts on Biden remaining in the race.
Algebra of Happiness: be open-minded.
Subscribe to No Mercy / No Malice
Buy “The Algebra of Wealth,” out now.
Follow the podcast across socials @profgpod:
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices