AI transcript
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0:00:35 Hey, this is Sean Elling.
0:00:36 This week on the Gray Area,
0:00:37 I talked with John Gans
0:00:41 about the strange politics of the early 1990s
0:00:44 and how they laid the groundwork for our current dysfunction.
0:00:46 What the right-wing populist
0:00:50 or this mafia populism acknowledges about society
0:00:54 is like there are intrinsic tensions
0:00:56 and we’re just gonna fight and win.
0:00:58 That’s This Week on the Gray Area.
0:01:00 Available wherever you get your podcasts.
0:01:04 – Welcome to the PropG Pods Office Hours.
0:01:07 This is the part of the show where we answer questions
0:01:08 about business, big tech entrepreneurship
0:01:10 and whatever else is on your mind.
0:01:11 – Hey, Prof. G.
0:01:12 – Hey, Scott and team.
0:01:13 – Hey, Scott.
0:01:14 – Hi, Prof. G.
0:01:15 – Hey, Prof. G.
0:01:15 – Hey, Prof. G.
0:01:16 – Hi, Professor G.
0:01:18 – Now, the last week’s Office Hours,
0:01:21 we talked about Tesla, early career advice and mentorship.
0:01:24 – I’ve served on a bunch of boards.
0:01:27 The most difficult thing, hands down, is compensation.
0:01:30 Do your best to try and take the worst part
0:01:33 of other people’s jobs off their plates
0:01:34 such that you become indispensable to them
0:01:36 ’cause if you make the life easier,
0:01:38 you’re gonna be indispensable.
0:01:41 I never explicitly asked anyone to be my mentor.
0:01:43 What I did was I would call people or I would say,
0:01:44 can I take you out to coffee?
0:01:47 I’d love your advice on some stuff.
0:01:48 – Today, we’ll answer your questions
0:01:49 surrounding the defense industry,
0:01:52 why greatness is in the agency of others
0:01:55 and how to act if your partner makes more money than you.
0:01:58 I have not seen or heard these questions.
0:02:01 So with that, question number one.
0:02:04 – Hi, Scott.
0:02:06 In the Pentagon, where I work as an advisor,
0:02:09 there’s a lot of interest in defense tech these days.
0:02:11 Whether it’s autonomous robotic hardware,
0:02:13 software architectures for common control
0:02:16 of uncrewed platforms or AI sales pitches
0:02:19 on everything from smart weapons to mission planning aids,
0:02:22 tech is all over my conversations.
0:02:25 While some of the typical big tech players are active here,
0:02:27 there’s also increasingly a bespoke ecosystem
0:02:31 of defense tech venture seeding defense tech startups.
0:02:34 Yet duty is not a normal customer.
0:02:36 It can buy in weird and unpredictable ways.
0:02:38 It’s often asking for products
0:02:40 that have limited commercial application
0:02:42 and it can struggle in innovation investments
0:02:45 to get venture backed companies over the valley of death.
0:02:48 I’m curious what your sense of this market is
0:02:49 and how I can help leaders
0:02:51 that are understanding the business side
0:02:53 of the defense tech marketplace.
0:02:54 Thank you.
0:02:57 – Thanks for your question and your service,
0:02:58 working as an advisor.
0:02:59 I don’t know what that means.
0:03:02 I don’t know if you’re a lobbyist for general dynamics
0:03:07 or Northrop Grumman or if you’re a general.
0:03:11 Anyways, so in some, this is a great business
0:03:16 ’cause the world is an insecure, hostile, violent place
0:03:18 and military spending is reaching new highs
0:03:20 according to the Stockholm International
0:03:22 Peace Research Institute.
0:03:25 Countries spend a record total of 2.4 trillion
0:03:28 on defense in 2023.
0:03:29 In global military spending,
0:03:32 the US accounted for 37% over a third followed
0:03:36 by China with 12%, Russia with 4.5%
0:03:38 and India with 3.4%.
0:03:41 Why the increase in global military spending?
0:03:43 Experts say it’s due to evolving geopolitical risks,
0:03:47 including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
0:03:50 So as a result of the spike in military spending,
0:03:54 the defense industry is hiring a new financial times report
0:03:56 which includes a survey of nearly 20 US
0:03:59 and European companies in the military sector,
0:04:03 the defense sector reveals there’s a kind of a war on talent
0:04:04 to find defense industry workers.
0:04:07 It’s being called unprecedented.
0:04:08 Ooh, that’s a big word.
0:04:10 In fact, global defense companies are hiring
0:04:13 at their fastest pace since the end of the Cold War.
0:04:14 It’s a really good business.
0:04:16 And I think there’s a huge opportunity
0:04:21 because a lot of these companies, at least for a while,
0:04:23 I’ll think warming up to like to virtue signal
0:04:24 and pretend they’re more woke,
0:04:26 they’re left-wing than they are
0:04:28 and don’t wanna take shit from their employees
0:04:30 by working on the defense industry.
0:04:34 And the reality is, and I believe that the far right
0:04:36 wants to spend money on the military
0:04:38 no matter what without being very thoughtful about it,
0:04:43 including approving capital for a class of warships
0:04:44 that make apps of fucking literally no sense
0:04:47 because, in fact, it creates jobs in their district.
0:04:49 So there’s definitely some weaponization of weapons,
0:04:50 if you will.
0:04:52 And people on the far right
0:04:54 see voting on every single military contract
0:04:56 is showing their macho.
0:04:58 And then people on the far left
0:05:00 are totally unrealistic and naive about the fact
0:05:01 that there are a lot of people out there
0:05:04 that if and when they can take our Netflix and Espresso
0:05:07 from us and kill us, they will, in fact, do that.
0:05:12 So there is, I think, generally an increasing recognition
0:05:14 that the world is becoming,
0:05:16 it feels like increasingly insecure
0:05:19 and all of that leads to increased military spending.
0:05:21 I also think you’re gonna see Japan and Germany
0:05:23 dramatically increase their military spending.
0:05:27 So I would bet that this would be a fantastic place
0:05:30 to start a company and a fantastic place to work.
0:05:34 And these companies always tend to make more money every year.
0:05:37 They’re slow, boring companies that,
0:05:40 as military spending has consistently gone up,
0:05:41 these companies do really well.
0:05:44 Also, unfortunately, I think it favors incumbents.
0:05:45 I would imagine there’s some smart people
0:05:48 in the Pentagon looking for new technologies.
0:05:50 But this is a capital intensive business.
0:05:52 And also I would think that big tech
0:05:54 would be sort of out of central casting
0:05:56 because they know how to weaponize Washington.
0:05:59 And that is my understanding is getting a military contract
0:06:02 requires a tremendous amount of bureaucratic
0:06:05 or administrative hurdles to clear.
0:06:09 And it probably also helps to have your local Congressperson
0:06:12 leaning on people at the Pentagon to get you audience
0:06:14 with the right purchasing or procurement people.
0:06:17 You also, I think it would be a long sale cycle.
0:06:20 But once you’re in, you probably are in for a while.
0:06:24 All of that spells to me incumbents and big players.
0:06:27 So just as there are capital allocators
0:06:29 that have a certain amount of capital allocated
0:06:31 for new fund managers, I would hope that the Pentagon
0:06:34 has a certain amount of capital for new technologies
0:06:35 or smaller companies.
0:06:37 But I think this is a great business.
0:06:40 And in sum, I’m very bullish on it.
0:06:41 Appreciate the question.
0:06:43 – Question number two.
0:06:46 – Hey, Prof. G, this is Solomon from Chicago.
0:06:49 I want to start by expressing my deep gratitude.
0:06:51 Your podcast inspired me during a challenging period
0:06:54 when I was disillusioned with my life and career paths.
0:06:56 Your pod made business concepts so accessible
0:06:59 and showed how value creation could truly uplift communities.
0:07:00 Thanks to your influence,
0:07:02 I just graduated top of my class with an MBA
0:07:04 and a program associated with two
0:07:06 of the top business schools in the world.
0:07:08 Instead of pursuing consulting or investment banking,
0:07:11 I’ve chosen to start businesses on the south side of Chicago
0:07:13 to promote economic renewal.
0:07:15 My question revolves around your powerful statement,
0:07:17 greatness is in the agency of others.
0:07:19 Our first business has been well received
0:07:23 and I recognize a critical need to empower others to lead.
0:07:24 What are the top two principles you follow
0:07:26 when investing in your people,
0:07:28 ensuring both the success of your businesses
0:07:31 and the personal growth of your team members?
0:07:33 Also, how do you course correct
0:07:35 when things with an employee are not going well?
0:07:39 P.S. I’m 33 and a father of three young children.
0:07:41 Your wisdom on fatherhood and relationships
0:07:43 have profoundly impacted me as well.
0:07:44 Thank you for everything.
0:07:48 – That’s a really thoughtful and generous question/comment.
0:07:50 So thanks very much.
0:07:53 So, okay, greatness in the agency of others.
0:07:55 If you wanna be a solo practitioner
0:07:57 and not manage other people,
0:07:58 you can make a good living,
0:07:59 but you’re never gonna have real influence
0:08:01 or real economic security.
0:08:04 I’ve always thought my confidence is storytelling,
0:08:06 but my superpower is the ability
0:08:09 to attract and retain talented people
0:08:11 who bring scale to what we do here.
0:08:14 And whether it was my first consulting firm or L2
0:08:15 or this firm,
0:08:17 I could just point to several,
0:08:22 usually young people who are just so extraordinarily talented
0:08:24 and that I’m kind of the jockey,
0:08:25 I don’t know what the term is,
0:08:28 or the pilot flying fucking F-15
0:08:29 and they’re one person’s the engine,
0:08:31 the other person’s the avionics,
0:08:33 but they’re really the aircraft
0:08:36 and I’m just occasionally, I have control of the joystick.
0:08:38 But your question is all right.
0:08:40 So what are the two principles
0:08:42 you follow in investing in your people?
0:08:44 Okay, this is not aspirational.
0:08:46 One, at L2, we were very analytical
0:08:48 and we kind of evaluated the majority of the people
0:08:51 and we said who are the kind of the superstars
0:08:53 or the people who are in the top 10%.
0:08:56 I don’t have what I’d call an aspirational view of HR
0:08:58 where everyone can work out,
0:09:00 it’s about finding the right role for them
0:09:02 or getting them the right mentor.
0:09:05 First off, I just believe interviewing is not a waste
0:09:08 but nearly a waste and that references are everything.
0:09:10 So if somebody I trust calls me
0:09:14 and says this person is fantastic, you should hire them,
0:09:16 they could come in for an interview
0:09:17 and throw up on themselves
0:09:19 and I would probably hire them.
0:09:20 Why?
0:09:21 I get fooled all the time.
0:09:23 I find there’s almost no,
0:09:24 occasionally you meet someone who’s so outstanding
0:09:25 you think this person would be good
0:09:26 and occasionally you just think,
0:09:28 okay, this just isn’t gonna work.
0:09:30 But for the most part, interviews are,
0:09:32 I find a very difficult way to evaluate employees.
0:09:35 So I’m an entirely a reference hire person
0:09:37 and if it’s someone who we don’t have a reference on,
0:09:41 we will spend a lot of time diligence in that person
0:09:43 and maybe even asking them to do the work
0:09:45 on a contract basis before we hire them full time.
0:09:47 Because firing people is hard,
0:09:49 emotionally taxing and expensive.
0:09:51 And also it’s one of the keys
0:09:53 to building a strong organization.
0:09:55 And that is, I have never,
0:09:58 well actually twice I fired someone too soon
0:10:01 but in a small company, it is Vietnam.
0:10:03 It’s hand in combat and you don’t have the technology,
0:10:06 the resources or the bandwidth to solve problems.
0:10:08 And if people aren’t working out,
0:10:10 you need to move them along.
0:10:13 And I’ve always been very much, okay, this isn’t working.
0:10:16 Here are the metrics you need to hit.
0:10:19 And if it doesn’t work, we’re gonna have to let you go.
0:10:23 I let go of a lot of people over the course of my career.
0:10:25 And I find that it’s just as important as hiring
0:10:27 because everyone in your organization
0:10:29 should be able to look left, look right
0:10:30 and not necessarily like that person
0:10:32 but understand why they’re there.
0:10:34 And it’s demoralizing to people
0:10:36 when people are underperforming or just not very good.
0:10:38 And they get to enjoy employment
0:10:40 and most of the same benefits they’re enjoying.
0:10:43 So what’s the point of committing and being excellent?
0:10:47 Anyways, so a couple of just hacks.
0:10:50 I typically identify what I call the superstars
0:10:53 and I overcompensate them and try and give them,
0:10:55 make it very difficult for them to ever leave
0:10:58 ’cause my general rule and I’m being a little bit cynical
0:11:01 is that 10% of the employees at 120% of the value
0:11:03 and the other 90% are negative 20.
0:11:05 Now you can’t have all the players.
0:11:06 You’re going to have some people
0:11:07 that just help scale the company
0:11:10 and A players wanna get paid a lot and have a lot of equity
0:11:11 so it’s hard to build an organization
0:11:13 just around A players.
0:11:16 The other thing I try to do is,
0:11:18 I believe people come to work to develop economic security
0:11:19 for them and their families.
0:11:21 The other thing I try to do is make sure
0:11:24 they feel appreciated on what I call more psychic
0:11:26 or more of the softer stuff.
0:11:27 And that is you try to get to know them,
0:11:30 try to understand what you think their objectives are
0:11:33 personally and show that or demonstrate
0:11:35 that you are making an effort
0:11:37 to try and foot to those objectives
0:11:40 and also give them the sense that if you do well,
0:11:41 they’re gonna do really well.
0:11:44 So I, for example, we have a big podcast deal with Vox.
0:11:46 I have mutualized that deal
0:11:50 and I’m giving everyone in Prodigy Media a percentage of that.
0:11:52 Now, were they involved in the initial deal?
0:11:54 Do they work on my podcast at Vox?
0:11:56 Some do, some don’t.
0:11:57 But I want them to feel that one,
0:11:59 I am very good at what I do
0:12:01 and if that results in economic upside,
0:12:03 they will participate in it.
0:12:08 So one, holding people accountable, demonstrating excellence
0:12:11 and also empathy, saying I’m gonna get to know you,
0:12:12 I’m gonna understand you
0:12:15 and I’m gonna try and get you the economic security
0:12:17 such that at some point you can have
0:12:19 the same type of enjoyment and time with family
0:12:22 that I’ve registered and that we’re in this together.
0:12:24 If I’m successful, you’re gonna be successful.
0:12:29 But the key is finding and retaining the best employees
0:12:30 ’cause again, as you reference,
0:12:34 greatness is in the agency of others.
0:12:36 We have one quick break before our final question.
0:12:37 Stay with us.
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0:15:02 at that blinking cursor or a burgeoning chef
0:15:04 looking for better knife skills,
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0:16:03 Welcome back, question number three.
0:16:04 – Hi, Scott.
0:16:06 My name is Brock, and I’m from New York City.
0:16:08 For your office hours podcast,
0:16:09 I have a question that might resonate
0:16:12 with many millennial men.
0:16:14 In an era where we celebrate equal pay
0:16:16 in women’s empowerment and the workforce,
0:16:18 some of us find ourselves earning less
0:16:20 than our female partners.
0:16:22 While I wholeheartedly support my partner,
0:16:23 there are moments when this reality
0:16:25 leaves me with a sense of falling short,
0:16:27 given the traditional expectations of men
0:16:30 tied to financial success in our culture.
0:16:32 My question to you is,
0:16:34 have you encountered such a situation in your life,
0:16:37 and what advice would you give young men like me
0:16:39 to be supportive partners without feeling insecure
0:16:41 about a financial standing?
0:16:43 Best regards, Brock.
0:16:46 – This is such a good question, Ian.
0:16:49 It’s a question on a lot of people’s minds, men and women,
0:16:52 and I appreciate that you have the confidence
0:16:52 to ask this question.
0:16:53 According to Pew Research,
0:16:55 29% of heterosexual marriages,
0:16:59 women and men, earn about the same, about 60,000 each.
0:17:01 In 55% of heterosexual marriages,
0:17:03 men are the primary breadwinners,
0:17:06 earning a median of $96,000 to their wives, $30,000.
0:17:08 In 16% of marriages,
0:17:11 wives out earn their husbands as the primary breadwinner,
0:17:15 earning a median of $88,000 to their husbands, $35,000.
0:17:17 50 years ago, in contrast,
0:17:20 husbands with a sole breadwinner and 49% of marriages today,
0:17:23 that share is just 23%.
0:17:26 So women’s contributions have grown,
0:17:28 but men are still seen and expected
0:17:29 to be the financial providers.
0:17:32 According to Pew, again, 71% of American adults
0:17:34 say it’s very important for a man
0:17:36 to be able to support a family financially,
0:17:38 to be a good husband partner,
0:17:40 whereas just 32% say the same thing about women.
0:17:43 And some men are expected to be providers,
0:17:46 regardless of how many subscriptions the Atlantic you have,
0:17:47 or how much you read The New York Times,
0:17:49 or whoever you listen to.
0:17:50 I also think that there are,
0:17:55 there’s some evidence that this has real impact on marriages.
0:17:57 There’s data showing that when the woman
0:18:00 in the relationship starts earning more than the man,
0:18:03 the man is more likely to use erectile dysfunction drugs.
0:18:05 They become much more likely to get divorced.
0:18:06 Now, some of that might not be
0:18:08 that the woman’s disappointed in the man,
0:18:11 it might be the man’s insecurities.
0:18:14 But we’re definitely in kind of not uncharted waters here,
0:18:16 but new waters, because I think a big part
0:18:20 of a man’s identity and self-worth comes not only from him,
0:18:23 but from the world perceiving him as a good provider.
0:18:26 I think you need alignment with your partner around finances
0:18:29 who’s responsible for making the money,
0:18:31 what’s our approach to spending.
0:18:33 In terms of women making more money than men,
0:18:35 it’s bound to happen.
0:18:40 One, more women are attending college now than men.
0:18:42 And two thirds of jobs now require a college degree.
0:18:45 The highest paying industry is generally want someone
0:18:48 with a college degree and you do acquire certain skills
0:18:49 and contacts in college.
0:18:52 So women quite frankly deserve to be making more money
0:18:55 than men in urban metros in the United States.
0:18:57 People under the age of 30, women are now,
0:19:00 in most of those cities making more money than the men
0:19:02 because they come more credentialed,
0:19:05 more single women owned homes than single men.
0:19:06 This is a good thing.
0:19:07 This is a good thing.
0:19:11 And what we need to acknowledge though,
0:19:13 is that this is gonna have a real impact
0:19:15 on household formation.
0:19:18 One, because men may associate economically
0:19:20 horizontally and down, women horizontally and up.
0:19:23 And when the pool of horizontal and up
0:19:25 gets smaller and smaller, it means more
0:19:27 or fewer and fewer young people
0:19:28 are going to find a partner.
0:19:31 They find economically and emotionally viable.
0:19:32 I women are gonna have a tougher time finding
0:19:35 economically and emotionally viable men.
0:19:36 And there’s gonna be less household formation,
0:19:39 lower birth rates, more loneliness.
0:19:41 I don’t have a silver bullet here.
0:19:45 What I do think we need are more and more
0:19:48 social programs and tax policy
0:19:51 that put more money in the pockets of young people.
0:19:53 As it relates to you, you’re obviously doing well.
0:19:56 The fact that your wife is earning more than you,
0:19:58 I think should be celebrated.
0:19:59 I think part of being a man
0:20:02 is taking economic responsibility for your household.
0:20:04 But part of that is recognizing
0:20:07 that your wife can be a great earner.
0:20:10 When my kids were born, I was working all the time.
0:20:13 And my wife was working at Goldman.
0:20:15 And then when her career started to take off,
0:20:18 I would make sure I could get home for bath time.
0:20:19 I was there for the nanny in the morning.
0:20:21 If the kids got sick, I stayed home
0:20:23 because my wife was a baller
0:20:25 and everybody needs a stage
0:20:27 on which other people applaud for them.
0:20:30 And I tried to be as supportive as possible.
0:20:33 What I do see is some men who can’t handle
0:20:36 or feel threatened by their wife’s professional success.
0:20:39 And meanwhile, they’re not as good professionally as they are.
0:20:42 That bullshit won’t haunt.
0:20:45 So look, I’m not suggesting that there’s a silver bullet here
0:20:48 other than to say the world is changing
0:20:51 and that your sense of masculinity
0:20:52 around being a provider, a protector,
0:20:55 and a procreator is still there.
0:20:56 I appreciate the question.
0:20:58 That’s all for this episode.
0:21:00 If you’d like to submit a question,
0:21:03 please email a voice recording to officehours@propertymedia.com.
0:21:06 Again, that’s officehours@propertymedia.com.
0:21:17 This episode was produced by Caroline Shagren.
0:21:20 Jennifer Sanchez is our associate producer
0:21:22 and Drew Burroughs is our technical director.
0:21:23 Thank you for listening to “The PropG Pod”
0:21:25 from the Box Media Podcast Network.
0:21:27 We will catch you on Saturday for “No Mercy, No Malice”
0:21:29 as read by George Hahn.
0:21:32 And please follow our “PropG Markets” pod.
0:21:35 Again, that’s the “PropG Markets” pod and subscribe
0:21:37 wherever you get your pods for new episodes
0:21:39 every Monday and Thursday.
0:21:41 You won’t get these episodes unless you subscribe
0:21:43 to the “PropG Markets” pod.
0:00:04 To support the future of AI,
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0:00:17 AWS will select 80 of the most promising startups
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0:00:23 and the resources they need to shape the future of AI.
0:00:26 Applications close on July 19th.
0:00:30 Learn more and apply now at startups.aws.
0:00:35 Hey, this is Sean Elling.
0:00:36 This week on the Gray Area,
0:00:37 I talked with John Gans
0:00:41 about the strange politics of the early 1990s
0:00:44 and how they laid the groundwork for our current dysfunction.
0:00:46 What the right-wing populist
0:00:50 or this mafia populism acknowledges about society
0:00:54 is like there are intrinsic tensions
0:00:56 and we’re just gonna fight and win.
0:00:58 That’s This Week on the Gray Area.
0:01:00 Available wherever you get your podcasts.
0:01:04 – Welcome to the PropG Pods Office Hours.
0:01:07 This is the part of the show where we answer questions
0:01:08 about business, big tech entrepreneurship
0:01:10 and whatever else is on your mind.
0:01:11 – Hey, Prof. G.
0:01:12 – Hey, Scott and team.
0:01:13 – Hey, Scott.
0:01:14 – Hi, Prof. G.
0:01:15 – Hey, Prof. G.
0:01:15 – Hey, Prof. G.
0:01:16 – Hi, Professor G.
0:01:18 – Now, the last week’s Office Hours,
0:01:21 we talked about Tesla, early career advice and mentorship.
0:01:24 – I’ve served on a bunch of boards.
0:01:27 The most difficult thing, hands down, is compensation.
0:01:30 Do your best to try and take the worst part
0:01:33 of other people’s jobs off their plates
0:01:34 such that you become indispensable to them
0:01:36 ’cause if you make the life easier,
0:01:38 you’re gonna be indispensable.
0:01:41 I never explicitly asked anyone to be my mentor.
0:01:43 What I did was I would call people or I would say,
0:01:44 can I take you out to coffee?
0:01:47 I’d love your advice on some stuff.
0:01:48 – Today, we’ll answer your questions
0:01:49 surrounding the defense industry,
0:01:52 why greatness is in the agency of others
0:01:55 and how to act if your partner makes more money than you.
0:01:58 I have not seen or heard these questions.
0:02:01 So with that, question number one.
0:02:04 – Hi, Scott.
0:02:06 In the Pentagon, where I work as an advisor,
0:02:09 there’s a lot of interest in defense tech these days.
0:02:11 Whether it’s autonomous robotic hardware,
0:02:13 software architectures for common control
0:02:16 of uncrewed platforms or AI sales pitches
0:02:19 on everything from smart weapons to mission planning aids,
0:02:22 tech is all over my conversations.
0:02:25 While some of the typical big tech players are active here,
0:02:27 there’s also increasingly a bespoke ecosystem
0:02:31 of defense tech venture seeding defense tech startups.
0:02:34 Yet duty is not a normal customer.
0:02:36 It can buy in weird and unpredictable ways.
0:02:38 It’s often asking for products
0:02:40 that have limited commercial application
0:02:42 and it can struggle in innovation investments
0:02:45 to get venture backed companies over the valley of death.
0:02:48 I’m curious what your sense of this market is
0:02:49 and how I can help leaders
0:02:51 that are understanding the business side
0:02:53 of the defense tech marketplace.
0:02:54 Thank you.
0:02:57 – Thanks for your question and your service,
0:02:58 working as an advisor.
0:02:59 I don’t know what that means.
0:03:02 I don’t know if you’re a lobbyist for general dynamics
0:03:07 or Northrop Grumman or if you’re a general.
0:03:11 Anyways, so in some, this is a great business
0:03:16 ’cause the world is an insecure, hostile, violent place
0:03:18 and military spending is reaching new highs
0:03:20 according to the Stockholm International
0:03:22 Peace Research Institute.
0:03:25 Countries spend a record total of 2.4 trillion
0:03:28 on defense in 2023.
0:03:29 In global military spending,
0:03:32 the US accounted for 37% over a third followed
0:03:36 by China with 12%, Russia with 4.5%
0:03:38 and India with 3.4%.
0:03:41 Why the increase in global military spending?
0:03:43 Experts say it’s due to evolving geopolitical risks,
0:03:47 including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
0:03:50 So as a result of the spike in military spending,
0:03:54 the defense industry is hiring a new financial times report
0:03:56 which includes a survey of nearly 20 US
0:03:59 and European companies in the military sector,
0:04:03 the defense sector reveals there’s a kind of a war on talent
0:04:04 to find defense industry workers.
0:04:07 It’s being called unprecedented.
0:04:08 Ooh, that’s a big word.
0:04:10 In fact, global defense companies are hiring
0:04:13 at their fastest pace since the end of the Cold War.
0:04:14 It’s a really good business.
0:04:16 And I think there’s a huge opportunity
0:04:21 because a lot of these companies, at least for a while,
0:04:23 I’ll think warming up to like to virtue signal
0:04:24 and pretend they’re more woke,
0:04:26 they’re left-wing than they are
0:04:28 and don’t wanna take shit from their employees
0:04:30 by working on the defense industry.
0:04:34 And the reality is, and I believe that the far right
0:04:36 wants to spend money on the military
0:04:38 no matter what without being very thoughtful about it,
0:04:43 including approving capital for a class of warships
0:04:44 that make apps of fucking literally no sense
0:04:47 because, in fact, it creates jobs in their district.
0:04:49 So there’s definitely some weaponization of weapons,
0:04:50 if you will.
0:04:52 And people on the far right
0:04:54 see voting on every single military contract
0:04:56 is showing their macho.
0:04:58 And then people on the far left
0:05:00 are totally unrealistic and naive about the fact
0:05:01 that there are a lot of people out there
0:05:04 that if and when they can take our Netflix and Espresso
0:05:07 from us and kill us, they will, in fact, do that.
0:05:12 So there is, I think, generally an increasing recognition
0:05:14 that the world is becoming,
0:05:16 it feels like increasingly insecure
0:05:19 and all of that leads to increased military spending.
0:05:21 I also think you’re gonna see Japan and Germany
0:05:23 dramatically increase their military spending.
0:05:27 So I would bet that this would be a fantastic place
0:05:30 to start a company and a fantastic place to work.
0:05:34 And these companies always tend to make more money every year.
0:05:37 They’re slow, boring companies that,
0:05:40 as military spending has consistently gone up,
0:05:41 these companies do really well.
0:05:44 Also, unfortunately, I think it favors incumbents.
0:05:45 I would imagine there’s some smart people
0:05:48 in the Pentagon looking for new technologies.
0:05:50 But this is a capital intensive business.
0:05:52 And also I would think that big tech
0:05:54 would be sort of out of central casting
0:05:56 because they know how to weaponize Washington.
0:05:59 And that is my understanding is getting a military contract
0:06:02 requires a tremendous amount of bureaucratic
0:06:05 or administrative hurdles to clear.
0:06:09 And it probably also helps to have your local Congressperson
0:06:12 leaning on people at the Pentagon to get you audience
0:06:14 with the right purchasing or procurement people.
0:06:17 You also, I think it would be a long sale cycle.
0:06:20 But once you’re in, you probably are in for a while.
0:06:24 All of that spells to me incumbents and big players.
0:06:27 So just as there are capital allocators
0:06:29 that have a certain amount of capital allocated
0:06:31 for new fund managers, I would hope that the Pentagon
0:06:34 has a certain amount of capital for new technologies
0:06:35 or smaller companies.
0:06:37 But I think this is a great business.
0:06:40 And in sum, I’m very bullish on it.
0:06:41 Appreciate the question.
0:06:43 – Question number two.
0:06:46 – Hey, Prof. G, this is Solomon from Chicago.
0:06:49 I want to start by expressing my deep gratitude.
0:06:51 Your podcast inspired me during a challenging period
0:06:54 when I was disillusioned with my life and career paths.
0:06:56 Your pod made business concepts so accessible
0:06:59 and showed how value creation could truly uplift communities.
0:07:00 Thanks to your influence,
0:07:02 I just graduated top of my class with an MBA
0:07:04 and a program associated with two
0:07:06 of the top business schools in the world.
0:07:08 Instead of pursuing consulting or investment banking,
0:07:11 I’ve chosen to start businesses on the south side of Chicago
0:07:13 to promote economic renewal.
0:07:15 My question revolves around your powerful statement,
0:07:17 greatness is in the agency of others.
0:07:19 Our first business has been well received
0:07:23 and I recognize a critical need to empower others to lead.
0:07:24 What are the top two principles you follow
0:07:26 when investing in your people,
0:07:28 ensuring both the success of your businesses
0:07:31 and the personal growth of your team members?
0:07:33 Also, how do you course correct
0:07:35 when things with an employee are not going well?
0:07:39 P.S. I’m 33 and a father of three young children.
0:07:41 Your wisdom on fatherhood and relationships
0:07:43 have profoundly impacted me as well.
0:07:44 Thank you for everything.
0:07:48 – That’s a really thoughtful and generous question/comment.
0:07:50 So thanks very much.
0:07:53 So, okay, greatness in the agency of others.
0:07:55 If you wanna be a solo practitioner
0:07:57 and not manage other people,
0:07:58 you can make a good living,
0:07:59 but you’re never gonna have real influence
0:08:01 or real economic security.
0:08:04 I’ve always thought my confidence is storytelling,
0:08:06 but my superpower is the ability
0:08:09 to attract and retain talented people
0:08:11 who bring scale to what we do here.
0:08:14 And whether it was my first consulting firm or L2
0:08:15 or this firm,
0:08:17 I could just point to several,
0:08:22 usually young people who are just so extraordinarily talented
0:08:24 and that I’m kind of the jockey,
0:08:25 I don’t know what the term is,
0:08:28 or the pilot flying fucking F-15
0:08:29 and they’re one person’s the engine,
0:08:31 the other person’s the avionics,
0:08:33 but they’re really the aircraft
0:08:36 and I’m just occasionally, I have control of the joystick.
0:08:38 But your question is all right.
0:08:40 So what are the two principles
0:08:42 you follow in investing in your people?
0:08:44 Okay, this is not aspirational.
0:08:46 One, at L2, we were very analytical
0:08:48 and we kind of evaluated the majority of the people
0:08:51 and we said who are the kind of the superstars
0:08:53 or the people who are in the top 10%.
0:08:56 I don’t have what I’d call an aspirational view of HR
0:08:58 where everyone can work out,
0:09:00 it’s about finding the right role for them
0:09:02 or getting them the right mentor.
0:09:05 First off, I just believe interviewing is not a waste
0:09:08 but nearly a waste and that references are everything.
0:09:10 So if somebody I trust calls me
0:09:14 and says this person is fantastic, you should hire them,
0:09:16 they could come in for an interview
0:09:17 and throw up on themselves
0:09:19 and I would probably hire them.
0:09:20 Why?
0:09:21 I get fooled all the time.
0:09:23 I find there’s almost no,
0:09:24 occasionally you meet someone who’s so outstanding
0:09:25 you think this person would be good
0:09:26 and occasionally you just think,
0:09:28 okay, this just isn’t gonna work.
0:09:30 But for the most part, interviews are,
0:09:32 I find a very difficult way to evaluate employees.
0:09:35 So I’m an entirely a reference hire person
0:09:37 and if it’s someone who we don’t have a reference on,
0:09:41 we will spend a lot of time diligence in that person
0:09:43 and maybe even asking them to do the work
0:09:45 on a contract basis before we hire them full time.
0:09:47 Because firing people is hard,
0:09:49 emotionally taxing and expensive.
0:09:51 And also it’s one of the keys
0:09:53 to building a strong organization.
0:09:55 And that is, I have never,
0:09:58 well actually twice I fired someone too soon
0:10:01 but in a small company, it is Vietnam.
0:10:03 It’s hand in combat and you don’t have the technology,
0:10:06 the resources or the bandwidth to solve problems.
0:10:08 And if people aren’t working out,
0:10:10 you need to move them along.
0:10:13 And I’ve always been very much, okay, this isn’t working.
0:10:16 Here are the metrics you need to hit.
0:10:19 And if it doesn’t work, we’re gonna have to let you go.
0:10:23 I let go of a lot of people over the course of my career.
0:10:25 And I find that it’s just as important as hiring
0:10:27 because everyone in your organization
0:10:29 should be able to look left, look right
0:10:30 and not necessarily like that person
0:10:32 but understand why they’re there.
0:10:34 And it’s demoralizing to people
0:10:36 when people are underperforming or just not very good.
0:10:38 And they get to enjoy employment
0:10:40 and most of the same benefits they’re enjoying.
0:10:43 So what’s the point of committing and being excellent?
0:10:47 Anyways, so a couple of just hacks.
0:10:50 I typically identify what I call the superstars
0:10:53 and I overcompensate them and try and give them,
0:10:55 make it very difficult for them to ever leave
0:10:58 ’cause my general rule and I’m being a little bit cynical
0:11:01 is that 10% of the employees at 120% of the value
0:11:03 and the other 90% are negative 20.
0:11:05 Now you can’t have all the players.
0:11:06 You’re going to have some people
0:11:07 that just help scale the company
0:11:10 and A players wanna get paid a lot and have a lot of equity
0:11:11 so it’s hard to build an organization
0:11:13 just around A players.
0:11:16 The other thing I try to do is,
0:11:18 I believe people come to work to develop economic security
0:11:19 for them and their families.
0:11:21 The other thing I try to do is make sure
0:11:24 they feel appreciated on what I call more psychic
0:11:26 or more of the softer stuff.
0:11:27 And that is you try to get to know them,
0:11:30 try to understand what you think their objectives are
0:11:33 personally and show that or demonstrate
0:11:35 that you are making an effort
0:11:37 to try and foot to those objectives
0:11:40 and also give them the sense that if you do well,
0:11:41 they’re gonna do really well.
0:11:44 So I, for example, we have a big podcast deal with Vox.
0:11:46 I have mutualized that deal
0:11:50 and I’m giving everyone in Prodigy Media a percentage of that.
0:11:52 Now, were they involved in the initial deal?
0:11:54 Do they work on my podcast at Vox?
0:11:56 Some do, some don’t.
0:11:57 But I want them to feel that one,
0:11:59 I am very good at what I do
0:12:01 and if that results in economic upside,
0:12:03 they will participate in it.
0:12:08 So one, holding people accountable, demonstrating excellence
0:12:11 and also empathy, saying I’m gonna get to know you,
0:12:12 I’m gonna understand you
0:12:15 and I’m gonna try and get you the economic security
0:12:17 such that at some point you can have
0:12:19 the same type of enjoyment and time with family
0:12:22 that I’ve registered and that we’re in this together.
0:12:24 If I’m successful, you’re gonna be successful.
0:12:29 But the key is finding and retaining the best employees
0:12:30 ’cause again, as you reference,
0:12:34 greatness is in the agency of others.
0:12:36 We have one quick break before our final question.
0:12:37 Stay with us.
0:12:43 Support for Prodigy comes from NetSuite.
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0:14:59 Support for PropG comes from Masterclass.
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0:15:02 at that blinking cursor or a burgeoning chef
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0:16:03 Welcome back, question number three.
0:16:04 – Hi, Scott.
0:16:06 My name is Brock, and I’m from New York City.
0:16:08 For your office hours podcast,
0:16:09 I have a question that might resonate
0:16:12 with many millennial men.
0:16:14 In an era where we celebrate equal pay
0:16:16 in women’s empowerment and the workforce,
0:16:18 some of us find ourselves earning less
0:16:20 than our female partners.
0:16:22 While I wholeheartedly support my partner,
0:16:23 there are moments when this reality
0:16:25 leaves me with a sense of falling short,
0:16:27 given the traditional expectations of men
0:16:30 tied to financial success in our culture.
0:16:32 My question to you is,
0:16:34 have you encountered such a situation in your life,
0:16:37 and what advice would you give young men like me
0:16:39 to be supportive partners without feeling insecure
0:16:41 about a financial standing?
0:16:43 Best regards, Brock.
0:16:46 – This is such a good question, Ian.
0:16:49 It’s a question on a lot of people’s minds, men and women,
0:16:52 and I appreciate that you have the confidence
0:16:52 to ask this question.
0:16:53 According to Pew Research,
0:16:55 29% of heterosexual marriages,
0:16:59 women and men, earn about the same, about 60,000 each.
0:17:01 In 55% of heterosexual marriages,
0:17:03 men are the primary breadwinners,
0:17:06 earning a median of $96,000 to their wives, $30,000.
0:17:08 In 16% of marriages,
0:17:11 wives out earn their husbands as the primary breadwinner,
0:17:15 earning a median of $88,000 to their husbands, $35,000.
0:17:17 50 years ago, in contrast,
0:17:20 husbands with a sole breadwinner and 49% of marriages today,
0:17:23 that share is just 23%.
0:17:26 So women’s contributions have grown,
0:17:28 but men are still seen and expected
0:17:29 to be the financial providers.
0:17:32 According to Pew, again, 71% of American adults
0:17:34 say it’s very important for a man
0:17:36 to be able to support a family financially,
0:17:38 to be a good husband partner,
0:17:40 whereas just 32% say the same thing about women.
0:17:43 And some men are expected to be providers,
0:17:46 regardless of how many subscriptions the Atlantic you have,
0:17:47 or how much you read The New York Times,
0:17:49 or whoever you listen to.
0:17:50 I also think that there are,
0:17:55 there’s some evidence that this has real impact on marriages.
0:17:57 There’s data showing that when the woman
0:18:00 in the relationship starts earning more than the man,
0:18:03 the man is more likely to use erectile dysfunction drugs.
0:18:05 They become much more likely to get divorced.
0:18:06 Now, some of that might not be
0:18:08 that the woman’s disappointed in the man,
0:18:11 it might be the man’s insecurities.
0:18:14 But we’re definitely in kind of not uncharted waters here,
0:18:16 but new waters, because I think a big part
0:18:20 of a man’s identity and self-worth comes not only from him,
0:18:23 but from the world perceiving him as a good provider.
0:18:26 I think you need alignment with your partner around finances
0:18:29 who’s responsible for making the money,
0:18:31 what’s our approach to spending.
0:18:33 In terms of women making more money than men,
0:18:35 it’s bound to happen.
0:18:40 One, more women are attending college now than men.
0:18:42 And two thirds of jobs now require a college degree.
0:18:45 The highest paying industry is generally want someone
0:18:48 with a college degree and you do acquire certain skills
0:18:49 and contacts in college.
0:18:52 So women quite frankly deserve to be making more money
0:18:55 than men in urban metros in the United States.
0:18:57 People under the age of 30, women are now,
0:19:00 in most of those cities making more money than the men
0:19:02 because they come more credentialed,
0:19:05 more single women owned homes than single men.
0:19:06 This is a good thing.
0:19:07 This is a good thing.
0:19:11 And what we need to acknowledge though,
0:19:13 is that this is gonna have a real impact
0:19:15 on household formation.
0:19:18 One, because men may associate economically
0:19:20 horizontally and down, women horizontally and up.
0:19:23 And when the pool of horizontal and up
0:19:25 gets smaller and smaller, it means more
0:19:27 or fewer and fewer young people
0:19:28 are going to find a partner.
0:19:31 They find economically and emotionally viable.
0:19:32 I women are gonna have a tougher time finding
0:19:35 economically and emotionally viable men.
0:19:36 And there’s gonna be less household formation,
0:19:39 lower birth rates, more loneliness.
0:19:41 I don’t have a silver bullet here.
0:19:45 What I do think we need are more and more
0:19:48 social programs and tax policy
0:19:51 that put more money in the pockets of young people.
0:19:53 As it relates to you, you’re obviously doing well.
0:19:56 The fact that your wife is earning more than you,
0:19:58 I think should be celebrated.
0:19:59 I think part of being a man
0:20:02 is taking economic responsibility for your household.
0:20:04 But part of that is recognizing
0:20:07 that your wife can be a great earner.
0:20:10 When my kids were born, I was working all the time.
0:20:13 And my wife was working at Goldman.
0:20:15 And then when her career started to take off,
0:20:18 I would make sure I could get home for bath time.
0:20:19 I was there for the nanny in the morning.
0:20:21 If the kids got sick, I stayed home
0:20:23 because my wife was a baller
0:20:25 and everybody needs a stage
0:20:27 on which other people applaud for them.
0:20:30 And I tried to be as supportive as possible.
0:20:33 What I do see is some men who can’t handle
0:20:36 or feel threatened by their wife’s professional success.
0:20:39 And meanwhile, they’re not as good professionally as they are.
0:20:42 That bullshit won’t haunt.
0:20:45 So look, I’m not suggesting that there’s a silver bullet here
0:20:48 other than to say the world is changing
0:20:51 and that your sense of masculinity
0:20:52 around being a provider, a protector,
0:20:55 and a procreator is still there.
0:20:56 I appreciate the question.
0:20:58 That’s all for this episode.
0:21:00 If you’d like to submit a question,
0:21:03 please email a voice recording to officehours@propertymedia.com.
0:21:06 Again, that’s officehours@propertymedia.com.
0:21:17 This episode was produced by Caroline Shagren.
0:21:20 Jennifer Sanchez is our associate producer
0:21:22 and Drew Burroughs is our technical director.
0:21:23 Thank you for listening to “The PropG Pod”
0:21:25 from the Box Media Podcast Network.
0:21:27 We will catch you on Saturday for “No Mercy, No Malice”
0:21:29 as read by George Hahn.
0:21:32 And please follow our “PropG Markets” pod.
0:21:35 Again, that’s the “PropG Markets” pod and subscribe
0:21:37 wherever you get your pods for new episodes
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0:21:41 You won’t get these episodes unless you subscribe
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Scott speaks about the defense tech industry, specifically why he believes it is a great business. He then discusses how greatness is in the agency of others, particularly in the context of the workplace. He wraps up with advice to a listener about how to act if your partner makes more money than you.
Music: https://www.davidcuttermusic.com / @dcuttermusic
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