AI transcript
0:00:00 This week on Prof. G Markets, we speak with Morgan Howsell, partner at the Collaborative
0:00:05 Fund and best-selling author of The Psychology of Money.
0:00:08 We discussed the path to wealth creation while balancing a life well spent.
0:00:12 I think once you suppress your desire, then you are almost a victim of your money.
0:00:17 You are a slave to it because you’re saying, “I want to do X,” and you’re saying, “Well,
0:00:22 your money’s telling you no.
0:00:23 You can’t do that.
0:00:24 You want to go on a vacation, but you can’t do it.”
0:00:27 I think people should really follow what their personality leads them to do.
0:00:31 You can find that conversation and many others exclusively on the Prof. G Markets feed.
0:00:40 Support for the show comes from Mercury.
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0:01:06 Episode 303, 303 is here.
0:01:12 I go covering parts of Colorado in 1903.
0:01:15 Henry Ford founded the Ford Motor Company.
0:01:17 True story.
0:01:18 I left my Adderall and my Ford Fiesta.
0:01:21 I came back and it’s a Ford Focus.
0:01:25 True story.
0:01:26 I was a brand strategy consultant and engaged by Ford Motor to help sell more cars.
0:01:30 My idea, add anal to every brand.
0:01:33 Anal Charger, Anal Challenger, Anal Expedition and Anal Fiesta.
0:01:39 Go, go, go!
0:01:50 Welcome to the 313rd episode of the Prof. G Pop.
0:01:53 313th?
0:01:54 It feels like if I say that three times, some sort of poltergeist is going to show up and
0:01:57 turn me into, I don’t know, the 59-year-old is angry, depressed and has erectile dysfunction.
0:02:02 No way no poltergeist needed.
0:02:03 Anyways, in today’s episode, we speak with Jessica Tarlov, a co-host on the Five, Fox’s
0:02:09 weeknight news program to hear about Trump’s conviction and what it means for American
0:02:13 politics.
0:02:14 You are going to say that you heard about Jess here, if you don’t watch Fox.
0:02:19 On Fox, she’s a bit of a superstar, but I just love that her star is literally the shooting
0:02:24 star and she’s, I don’t know her well, but I do know her and she’s just an impressive,
0:02:29 cool woman.
0:02:31 Anyways, Jessica has become our go-to Yoda for all things politics.
0:02:36 I find that she kind of hits it up the middle.
0:02:39 She’s an unabashed Democrat, but she comes from a background of consulting and data,
0:02:44 and oh my gosh, you want to see just her.
0:02:47 I just love, my favorite moment is when the five or four of the five say something just
0:02:52 fucking ridiculous and she just punctures them in the middle of the forehead with a bunch
0:02:57 of data and they all sit there looking as if they’ve just been caught masturbating.
0:03:00 I mean, they have the strangest looks on their face like, “Who the fuck invited this smart
0:03:03 Democrat to come in and make us look like idiots?”
0:03:06 Anyways, she’s fantastic.
0:03:08 What else is happening?
0:03:09 The dog is back in London.
0:03:11 I went to the UEFA finals.
0:03:12 I saw Dortmund play Real Madrid, by the way, Mbappe, not that you care about football.
0:03:17 By the way, it’s called football, folks.
0:03:19 3 billion people can’t be wrong.
0:03:20 It’s called football.
0:03:21 Have hired Mbappe, who’s arguably the best, maybe the best player in the world right now.
0:03:26 I’ll probably get shit for that.
0:03:28 All fans are very, very serious about their football, but Real Madrid did not need Mbappe.
0:03:33 They’re going to be dominant now.
0:03:35 Anyways, took my two sons and their friends, Santi from Florida, who came all the way over
0:03:41 just for three days.
0:03:42 You can do that when you’re, literally no jet lag when you’re 16.
0:03:45 No jet lag.
0:03:46 I go come up early in the morning.
0:03:47 No problem.
0:03:48 Time to go to sleep.
0:03:49 No problem going to sleep.
0:03:50 So little bit different.
0:03:51 A little bit different when you enter your sixth or seventh decade.
0:03:55 It’s great to be back here.
0:03:56 When I say great, it’s just good.
0:03:58 It’s not great.
0:03:59 It’s sort of good.
0:04:00 It’s a beautiful day here for London.
0:04:02 It’s like almost hit 60 degrees for a moment.
0:04:05 And I think I saw this round orange thing in the side, although I will say I do love
0:04:09 London in June as the days go on forever.
0:04:12 It’s really nice.
0:04:14 It’s also nice to be back, see my kids, you know, nice to be home, get back, get back
0:04:19 in the swing of things.
0:04:20 Anyways, let’s move on to some news.
0:04:22 The Wall Street Journal reported that New York State is proposing a bill that would
0:04:26 prohibit social media companies from serving up algorithmically driven feeds to minors
0:04:30 and prevent them from delivering notifications during the wee hours of the night without
0:04:33 parental consent.
0:04:35 Governor Cathy Hockel believes this measure is needed in order to make these platforms
0:04:38 less addictive and to address the growing crisis of teens in distress.
0:04:42 According to the journal, opponents that is industry leaders and trade groups have questions
0:04:46 about the constitutionality of the proposal and believe media literacy would have a more
0:04:51 immediate impact.
0:04:52 What the fuck does that even mean?
0:04:53 They’re supposed to read about how terrible these social media platforms are.
0:04:58 Look, when we look back on this era of big tech, we’re going to regret the income inequality,
0:05:01 we’re going to regret the monopoly abuse, we’re going to regret the weaponization of
0:05:05 our elections, we’re going to regret the deep fakes, the shallow fakes, but more than anything,
0:05:09 more than anything.
0:05:11 We’re going to ask ourselves, how the fuck did we let this happen to our kids?
0:05:16 My colleague at NYU, Jonathan Hightison, great work basically demonstrating irrefutably
0:05:21 that levels of self-harm, depression and suicide have gone up, especially among girls, since
0:05:26 social went on mobile and as a parent and someone who you would think would be really
0:05:31 mindful of this stuff, I got to be honest, we’re failing.
0:05:34 My kid struggles with device addiction, he’s on social media too much and people say, “Well,
0:05:40 just take it away or just get them off the social media platform,” said anyone who does
0:05:44 not have kids.
0:05:45 This is how they get their homework.
0:05:47 This is how they communicate with their friends.
0:05:49 I would bet that one-third, at least one-third, sometimes two-thirds of all the anxiety in
0:05:55 our house focuses on social media or devices.
0:05:59 These things are a fucking cancer and I also worry that a lot of my creativity, a lot of
0:06:05 my risk-taking came from the fact that I did not have this amazing casino, movie theater,
0:06:12 dopa machine, crack pipe in my pocket that I could just sit on the couch all day that
0:06:18 I would call people, I would call friends that I didn’t know well or potential friends
0:06:22 and say, “Hey, let’s meet at the park,” where I would go, I used to go to Westwood Park
0:06:27 and play in pickup games when I was 10 and 11 years old.
0:06:30 That wasn’t easy, it was kind of intimidating and the kids were all bigger than me, but
0:06:34 I was so fucking bored I had to get out of the house and this is the problem.
0:06:38 Kids aren’t bored now, they’re just at home and they go down these rabbit holes.
0:06:42 I have seen some of the shit that these kids say to each other.
0:06:45 You want to talk about overprotecting offline and underprotecting online, oh my god.
0:06:50 Any parent out there, demand that you get passwords for your kids’ social media and
0:06:54 go on there and see how these kids are talking to each other, it is pretty, pretty scary.
0:06:59 I think that this is something that is going to be fixed, I think parents are catching
0:07:03 on to just how incredibly damaging this has been and that the mendacious Fox who run these
0:07:08 companies will pretend that they give a good goddamn about your children, they don’t.
0:07:12 They pretend about their own wealth and their own ability to get their kids into the right
0:07:16 schools and a lot of them, a lot of them, see above Steve Jobs didn’t allow their kids
0:07:20 to be on devices because they know firsthand just how incredibly damaging these things
0:07:25 can be.
0:07:26 So let’s talk about what platforms they’re using.
0:07:28 Percentage of US teens ages 13 to 17 who say they visit or use the following apps or sites.
0:07:34 This is from Pew, number one is YouTube with 71% of US teens 13 to 3 out of 4 teens are
0:07:42 on YouTube every day.
0:07:45 Think about that every day and 54% over half, over half of 13 to 17 year olds say they are
0:07:53 either almost constantly or several times a day on YouTube and for TikTok it is 49%.
0:08:00 Just half of American teenagers are on TikTok either almost constantly or several times
0:08:05 a day and we have the added bonus with a platform influenced by the CCP of knowing they’re seeing
0:08:10 the world through a frame that is being influenced by the Chinese Communist Party.
0:08:14 What could go wrong?
0:08:16 What could go wrong?
0:08:17 And then Sam Chat which I would argue is the least mendacious of the mendacious Fox, it’s
0:08:21 about 43%.
0:08:22 Then we go to Instagram at 35% and this isn’t the total number.
0:08:28 This is the percentage of teens who say they’re using it almost constantly or several times
0:08:31 a day and then Facebook, which I guess is turned into the new Lamo one only has a total
0:08:36 of 19% or only about 10% are using it constantly or several times a day.
0:08:43 This is the frame through which our kids are developing their brain.
0:08:47 This is what is rewiring when your kid from 13 to 17 their brain gets rewired.
0:08:54 My kid is sort of the same person, but not really in terms of where he was at 12 and
0:08:59 where he was now, their brain gets rewired, the hormones kick in, the prefrontal cortex
0:09:04 finally starts to grow.
0:09:05 They start perceiving things, reacting to them, their social capital shows up and they
0:09:10 start thinking about, well, maybe my parents don’t know everything, who do I find or what
0:09:14 are the sources of information that influence who I am and my view of the world.
0:09:18 That is mostly, I’d like to believe still their peer group interesting study across parents.
0:09:23 We like to think that we’re engineers of the sheep, we’re not.
0:09:26 We’re herders, we’re shepherds, we get to choose the field they graze on, we get to
0:09:29 choose what food they get, we get to choose what direction they graze in, but the sheep
0:09:33 comes to us, right?
0:09:35 We’re not engineers.
0:09:36 Just ask yourself, what would the CCP want?
0:09:39 So we have this device or this platform or this media that is not only depressing our
0:09:45 kids, but is giving them a fucked up view of the world.
0:09:48 You don’t think the zombie apocalypse of useful idiots on campus has something to do with
0:09:53 the frame through which they perceive the world.
0:09:55 Are you totally confused as to how they would even get there?
0:09:59 Well, see above, tick and talk.
0:10:04 Okay, moving on to a lesson on brand.
0:10:06 The aforementioned Wall Street Journal who broke the news about New York’s social media
0:10:09 legislation is going through a multi-million dollar rebranding campaign.
0:10:13 Axios reported that the journal is introducing a new tagline.
0:10:16 It’s your business as it looks to attract a broader audience beyond the uber-finance
0:10:20 centric people and C-suite executives.
0:10:23 To achieve this rebranding, the journal is investing heavily in paid marketing.
0:10:27 You’ll likely see their efforts on billboards and office buildings and social media.
0:10:31 Okay, does this make sense?
0:10:32 Keep in mind, I’m biased or I should be biased.
0:10:35 I have spent my entire professional career, that’s not true, the first three quarters of
0:10:39 my professional career based on the following algorithm.
0:10:44 From the end of World War II to essentially the introduction of Google, the way you printed
0:10:48 money, the algorithm for creating shareholder value was the following.
0:10:51 Find a mediocre product you can produce at the lowest cost at scale, a mediocre salty
0:10:56 snack, sugary drink, car, tennis shoe, and then wrap it in these amazing brand codes
0:11:02 of youth, American masculinity, European elegance, sacks, never goes out of style, paternal care,
0:11:09 maternal love.
0:11:10 Why?
0:11:11 Why should you spend $3.30 on $.30 worth of peanut butter paste?
0:11:15 Because choosing moms choose Jiff.
0:11:16 You love your kids more, why?
0:11:18 And how do you prove it?
0:11:19 Buy branded toothpaste.
0:11:21 And this was licensed to print money.
0:11:24 Sell a product with 80 or 90 points of margin.
0:11:27 The can is the most expensive thing about Coca-Cola in terms of the actual product, but the real
0:11:32 expense and the real genius is the brand code that you are American and youthful and you’d
0:11:36 like to teach the world to sing in perfect harmony.
0:11:39 Or you’re like Michael Jackson if you drink Pepsi, what have you, just drink more Coors
0:11:42 Light and you’re going to be hot and on the beach playing volleyball with other hot people.
0:11:46 By the way, that has not happened to me.
0:11:48 I’ve consumed a great deal of beer in my life and modest volleyball player and just don’t
0:11:54 look the same way on the court.
0:11:56 Anyways, this was the brand code.
0:11:57 This was the algorithm for creating shareholder values.
0:12:01 He’s incredibly efficient and cheap broadcast vehicles.
0:12:05 You hire very talented people who show up wearing black, who are very attractive and you love
0:12:09 to hang out with after hours who come up with these amazing stories.
0:12:12 They tell these stories on these very efficient mediums that get huge scale, infuse this mediocre
0:12:17 product that they can produce at scale, edit a low cost with these incredible brand associations
0:12:22 and brand codes and then boom, stuff the channel with it, other people’s channels that they
0:12:26 spend the capital and they’re good at retail and we print money.
0:12:30 We’re Procter and Gamble.
0:12:31 We’re Chevy.
0:12:32 We’re like a rock.
0:12:33 We’re a unilever.
0:12:34 I mean, these companies were ABN Bev, right?
0:12:36 Oh my God, aren’t those frogs just ridiculously fucking cute.
0:12:40 And then, and then Google came along and we no longer needed to defer to the shorthand
0:12:45 that is brand.
0:12:46 That’s what brand is.
0:12:47 I don’t have time to do diligence on every hotel, so I will defer to the Mandarin Oriental
0:12:52 in the four seasons.
0:12:53 Why?
0:12:54 Because usually when I travel, someone else’s O is paying and it’s O as an eight.
0:12:56 But now I no longer need the shorthand of brand.
0:12:59 I no longer need advertising.
0:13:01 What can I do?
0:13:02 I can go on my social graph.
0:13:03 I can go on TripAdvisor.
0:13:04 I can Google and go to AI.
0:13:06 And what I find out is that when I’m in London, I want to stay at the Chiltern Firehouse.
0:13:10 Why?
0:13:11 Because I am that douchebag that likes to hang out with people who are much younger and much
0:13:14 hotter than him.
0:13:15 And I’m willing to put up with a substandard room, which they are in their choppy, to stay
0:13:18 in an Andrew Bilaz Hotel.
0:13:20 He’s got the algorithm down, underinvest in the actual hotel room, overinvest in the public
0:13:24 spaces, create the illusion of scarcity and cool, and people will pay 800 pounds such that
0:13:29 they have access to this really cool room.
0:13:31 This is the conversion of the brand age to the innovation age to the social age, where
0:13:36 your social graph and these new digital mechanisms of getting you to exactly the right product.
0:13:41 Think about the waste of any broadcast commercial.
0:13:44 What percentage of people watching Rachel Maddow tonight really have opioid-induced
0:13:48 constipation?
0:13:49 Well, not a lot.
0:13:51 Hopefully not a lot.
0:13:52 Jesus Christ, I hope not a lot.
0:13:54 Anyways, this is, this is the problem.
0:13:57 Because if I have opioid-induced constipation, I type it into Google or AI, and I get exact
0:14:03 information.
0:14:04 It’s one-to-one.
0:14:05 It’s pull versus push.
0:14:07 So the brand era is over.
0:14:10 Let’s bring this back to the Wall Street Journal, Scott.
0:14:11 I don’t think this is a great idea.
0:14:13 I think maybe a little bit of it to announce the rebranding, I would try and get free or
0:14:17 earn media.
0:14:18 But how do you know?
0:14:19 How do you know you’re a company that is not going to add 10, 50, or $100 billion in
0:14:24 market capitalization over the next 12 months?
0:14:26 See, you advertise.
0:14:29 That’s it.
0:14:30 Professor of Brand Strategy, NYU Stern, founder of Profit Brand Strategy, I have made my living
0:14:35 preaching about the power of brand.
0:14:38 It outs you now in this era is not getting it.
0:14:42 Branding in the traditional sense, and that is trying to fill an empty vessel of a mediocre
0:14:46 product or these brand associations, the sun has passed midday on that.
0:14:50 Don Draper has been drawn and quartered.
0:14:53 We are in an innovation age now where it’s about the product.
0:14:55 It’s mostly about supply chain, in my view, and I’ll come back to that at a later date.
0:15:00 But to think that rebranding something is going to reignite the structural decline being
0:15:03 felt by newspapers and content companies, boss, you’re watching too much TV.
0:15:09 We’ll be right back for our conversation with Jessica Tarloff.
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0:18:03 Welcome back.
0:18:16 Here’s our conversation with Jessica Tarloff, a co-host on the Fox’s weeknight news program.
0:18:22 Jess, where did this podcast find you?
0:18:26 At home in New York City, in the middle of my maternity leave, so I’m thrilled to talk
0:18:30 to an adult about something.
0:18:34 Maternity leave.
0:18:35 Oh my gosh.
0:18:36 How long is that?
0:18:37 I am entitled to 16 weeks paid maternity leave.
0:18:40 Good for you.
0:18:42 Yeah.
0:18:43 That’s a whole other talk.
0:18:44 Which everyone should be.
0:18:45 Yes, it is.
0:18:46 I would love to do a childcare conversation for sure.
0:18:48 By the way, does your husband get paternity leave?
0:18:50 He does.
0:18:51 They don’t have a formal policy.
0:18:52 It’s just kind of like a take what you need situation and I still, because he works in
0:18:56 finance, I still think that they are a little uneasy with taking a lot of time, but people
0:19:02 seem to be splitting it up.
0:19:04 Like they take a bit at the beginning and then when they really want to be off, like
0:19:08 in August, they’re like, “Oh, I’m on paternity leave.”
0:19:10 So it’s kind of a mixed bag.
0:19:12 Did you take time with yours?
0:19:15 So just to you know, I’ve always had my own businesses, but that take as much as you need
0:19:22 is a trick.
0:19:23 I used to do the same thing.
0:19:24 I used to tell people, people say, “What’s your vacation policy?”
0:19:26 I’m like, “You need a vacation, take a vacation.”
0:19:28 And people in a high achiever firm all feel this implicit pressure to take no time.
0:19:34 So I found it was the perfect model to make sure that no one took any time.
0:19:37 How’s that from being a terrible boss?
0:19:40 I mean, it’s honestly how you keep up, but again, it’s a whole other story, but I lived,
0:19:46 I think you know.
0:19:47 Yeah, well, we’ve talked about it.
0:19:48 When I lived in London, I did an internship for someone who was doing a maternity cover,
0:19:53 which can be up to a year over there.
0:19:55 And then the woman came back.
0:19:59 They didn’t want to get rid of the guy who had subbed in and had done such a fantastic
0:20:02 job.
0:20:03 And in the end, the woman ended up getting pushed out a couple years later because there
0:20:08 really wasn’t a role for her left, but they legally couldn’t let her come, not come back
0:20:14 after a year off.
0:20:15 And it turned into this whole mess of a thing.
0:20:17 So they’re big politics with it to say the least.
0:20:21 Kids ruin everything.
0:20:23 All right, let’s get to the serious stuff here.
0:20:26 So 34 felon accounts, what do you make of this historic verdict?
0:20:30 Well, it seems like it was the correct verdict, and everyone has really been parsing the difference
0:20:35 between what the jury did and whether this was politically motivated or if this was the
0:20:40 right thing to bring the case.
0:20:42 It seems like the jury did a fantastic job.
0:20:45 They evaluated the evidence, they won, they made a timely decision.
0:20:48 I was following really closely, at least on social media, all the questions that they
0:20:52 were asking, all of the legal commentators kept saying, “Those are the right questions
0:20:56 to be asking, paid great attention,” et cetera.
0:20:59 And Todd Blanche, Donald Trump’s lawyer, did a bunch of interviews, and he said, “We
0:21:05 expected that this could happen.
0:21:07 We made all of our decisions together about how to present our case.
0:21:10 We obviously approved the jurors and the alternates, and this is the way that it goes sometimes.”
0:21:15 We’ll see how the appeal process goes.
0:21:17 The other side of the coin, which is, should Alvin Bragg have brought this case?
0:21:22 And I was listening to your latest episode of Pivot before we got on, so I know that
0:21:27 you had Eli Hone gone, who obviously has a bit of a counter-opinion to a lot of Democrats
0:21:32 who are seething about even mentioning the fact that this was a case that perhaps should
0:21:39 not have been brought and that bringing it up to a federal charge with the campaign finance
0:21:45 fraud, essentially, was not the right way to go, is the other side of the coin.
0:21:50 And that’s where I think the really interesting stuff is.
0:21:52 Well, let’s put forward that thesis.
0:21:55 My fear is that this is going to help the president get elected, that the majority of
0:22:02 the voting public will see this as basically about sex, and that if they figured out a
0:22:08 way to elevate and attempt to cover up sex or hush money to a felony, that they’re going
0:22:15 to need more courts, that there are a lot of people who pay off mistresses or end up
0:22:21 doing things that are illegal under the context of trying to keep affairs discreet or quiet,
0:22:30 and that this is selective prosecution, and that this will be further play into the whole
0:22:35 narrative of the deep state is coming after me, rally his base.
0:22:39 My understanding is he raised a record amount of money or a lot of money post-Sovietic.
0:22:44 Distinct of the merits of when you bring a case or don’t, just strategically, if you
0:22:50 don’t want Trump to be president, do you think this helps or hurts us?
0:22:54 I think it’s going to take a few weeks to a month to understand that, and the polling
0:22:58 is really fuzzy at this moment, and some people are just ingesting the information.
0:23:03 Some people haven’t even paid attention to it yet, and the Biden campaign is still figuring
0:23:07 out how they want to approach this.
0:23:09 How often do you want to call him Donald Trump, and how often do you want to call him convicted
0:23:12 felon Donald Trump?
0:23:15 And that’s something that the communications people are struggling with as we speak.
0:23:19 But I actually am less pessimistic about it than you are, and the reason for that is that
0:23:25 I only care about a small subset of voters.
0:23:28 The bases of the parties don’t matter to me at this point, and I know that Biden’s polling
0:23:33 has been softer with African-Americans and Latino voters and some young voters, but that
0:23:39 happened in 2020 as well, and people came home.
0:23:43 So I’m putting that to the side now and thinking, okay, who is my focus?
0:23:48 Moderate Republicans and independent voters.
0:23:51 And there have been a few surveys taken since the verdict, and we’ll get more and more,
0:23:54 but ABC, Ipsos, was out there in the field, and they got that 52% of independents say
0:24:01 that he should withdraw from the race, and 16% of Republicans, and 16% might seem like
0:24:07 a low number, but there’s your swung election, right?
0:24:10 Those are your swing states, potentially.
0:24:13 Morning console got basically a mirror image of that result.
0:24:16 CBS also something similar.
0:24:19 So if you think about how many people are actually up for grabs, how few we have to
0:24:24 persuade that this matters and that this isn’t just a one-off that he lied about this, but
0:24:30 that he is a chronic liar, and that has been a thread through the Eugene Carroll case,
0:24:35 the Civil Fraud case, and if we ever get to the Marquis cases, which obviously I would
0:24:39 have preferred if we were talking about the nuclear secrets that are hanging out in the
0:24:43 toilet at Mar-a-Lago or January 6th before we were talking about the Hush Money case.
0:24:49 I think that you can persuade a lot of people with that to just say, you know what, maybe
0:24:53 I was thinking about giving him another shot, but the guy is such an effin liar.
0:24:58 You work with, I mean, you work with a conservative network, or what is the vibe when you talk
0:25:06 to people off camera, are they, do they generally believe this is another example of the deep
0:25:12 state going after, you know, as a function of Trump derangement syndrome, or are they,
0:25:17 this is bad for us?
0:25:19 What’s the vibe off-mic or off-camera among conservatives?
0:25:23 I think that they actually feel both of those things, and that we’re always trying to put
0:25:27 people into one box, and it’s actually a lot more complex than that.
0:25:31 So yes, the deep state is real, and they’ll go back and try to relitigate, quote, “Rush
0:25:36 a gate with me,” and then I’ll get all hot and bothered again about Hillary Clinton,
0:25:39 and they’ll be like, “Actually, I don’t want to talk to you about this anymore.”
0:25:42 And then they also understand the fact that this does not help their case.
0:25:48 And you can tell that Republicans know that it’s a bad thing from the type of panic and
0:25:53 the way that they’re speaking about him being a convicted felon.
0:25:56 A, they want to raise a ton of money, which they did, I mean, we’ll see what the actual
0:26:00 figures are, but they’re reporting $141 million, which is astronomical.
0:26:05 They will not say what it will be used for, which I’m always paying attention to.
0:26:08 So okay, you’ve got all this money now, are you going to open a field office, and then
0:26:12 they’re like, “Actually, maybe we’ll just pay Donald Trump’s legal fees.”
0:26:15 So that’s somewhere the Democrats still have a huge advantage.
0:26:18 But they know that this isn’t helpful.
0:26:21 No one ever wants to be indicted.
0:26:23 No one ever wants to be convicted.
0:26:25 And something that I don’t think folks are paying as much attention to as they should
0:26:29 be, every day that Donald Trump is out there just grievances, wall to wall, “I’m a political
0:26:36 prisoner,” whatever else he’s talking about, he’s not talking about the issues.
0:26:40 And the issues are the ones that are going to sway that little group of people, though
0:26:43 you’re talking about the independents and the Republicans, who have decided either he
0:26:48 is this guy and we don’t care, or he is this guy, and I’d like to hear something, a plan
0:26:52 for the economy, a plan for the border.
0:26:55 So I think that that does lead to an advantage for the Democrats and disappointment for my
0:27:01 wonderful colleagues, who I look forward to rejoining in Milwaukee in July, which is a
0:27:06 crazy first week back.
0:27:08 That’s going to be really interesting, the convention, Ryan.
0:27:11 It’s going to be…
0:27:12 I’m actually a little scared.
0:27:15 I live right by the courthouse in Manhattan, and it was remarkably low-key.
0:27:19 I saw a few, and I wouldn’t call them parades, but a bunch of Trump cars that had Blue Lives
0:27:28 Matter flags, and now the upside down American flag, because Samuel Alito is some sort of
0:27:33 hero for a quote not standing up to his wife, who did that all by herself or whatever.
0:27:39 So when Trump was coming in and out, they drive with him, but going to the convention
0:27:43 four days after the sentencing, I think it could get a little wild.
0:27:49 I’m not saying January 6 levels, but you have to be ready for anything to happen, especially
0:27:54 if he’s given jail time.
0:27:56 But that’s…
0:27:57 So it’s just some anecdotal evidence, and I’m curious if you’ve picked up on the same
0:28:00 thing.
0:28:01 I find one of the most encouraging things, or a signal, and granted, I’m looking for
0:28:04 signals that this is going to help get Biden reelected.
0:28:08 But when…
0:28:09 I was living in Florida in Delray Beach, and right after the election, there was a parade
0:28:13 for a stop-to-steal parade.
0:28:16 And Delray is actually kind of purplish/blue, but there is…
0:28:21 You go three miles inland, and it’s deep red.
0:28:24 I could not get over the number of people in the passion around the stop-to-steal, and
0:28:30 they had a desk set up, information, and just for fun, I walked over and had them explain.
0:28:37 And these were people who were deeply committed and believed that the election had been stolen.
0:28:41 I thought, “I’m just so out of touch with America.”
0:28:43 And the passion they felt, the number of people…
0:28:48 When the case…
0:28:49 When the verdict came down, I was encouraged at how what I’ll call “little agita” grievance
0:28:55 or rage among the general populace was.
0:28:57 I see it as there is rage fatigue, that people are starting to think, “You know what?
0:29:02 I’m still going to vote for them, but I’m not going to storm the Capitol.
0:29:07 Did you sense the same thing?”
0:29:09 I mean, that’s the hope, but we’re also far out from the election.
0:29:12 I think the vibe in October is going to be a lot more heightened on both sides of this.
0:29:19 I was surprised that there weren’t more lefties showing up at the courthouse to troll him,
0:29:24 right?
0:29:25 Or standing outside of Trump Tower and the New Tiffany’s, which is gorgeous, and trying
0:29:29 to do it that way.
0:29:30 So I think that we’re just a bit too far out for it, but I think it will be less, because
0:29:36 people probably have learned a lesson or two from the number of January Sixers who have
0:29:40 gotten pretty serious sentences, and the number of people who have been very forthcoming with
0:29:47 their transition out of being a Trump supporter and talking about how they were manipulated,
0:29:53 how they were brainwashed, how they fed him a bunch of lies.
0:29:56 And my hope is that Democrats will be able to connect what he’s saying about this Alvin
0:30:01 Bratt case to the supposition that Donald Trump lies to you at every single turn.
0:30:08 Fox is doing some really cool new polling work.
0:30:11 They have a new issues tracker, and they also have this deal breaker question, which I think
0:30:16 is so awesome.
0:30:17 What are the deal breaker issues for you?
0:30:18 Number one was abortion.
0:30:19 I think Democrats need to get back to talking about preserving female reproductive rights,
0:30:25 that that’s something that’s always going to win for them.
0:30:27 But on the issues tracker, Biden has a 15-point advantage on honesty and trustworthiness, and
0:30:32 I don’t think they’re leaning into it enough.
0:30:35 So before you became kind of a household name, you were a consultant around messaging.
0:30:40 So I want you to do sort of kind of arm-share consulting.
0:30:46 We’re the Republican Party.
0:30:47 What is our messaging around this issue moving forward?
0:30:51 I think that you’ve really got to split it up, and you got to pick your best voices that
0:30:55 are going to be out there kind of parroting what Donald Trump wants to hear.
0:30:59 So it seems like JD Vance, Marco Rubio are taking the mantle for that.
0:31:03 They’re both high up in the VP search.
0:31:04 I think JD Vance is probably ahead of Rubio in that and let them, people who are respected
0:31:12 as being intelligent folks, talk about it.
0:31:15 And the rest of the party really has got to get back to talking about the issues.
0:31:19 I saw how Larry Hogan was totally maligned for saying something pretty normal.
0:31:24 Let’s respect the jury decision.
0:31:26 He didn’t even say what he thought about Donald Trump, even though we all know what
0:31:30 it is that he thinks.
0:31:32 And people like Kevin McCarthy, who has found some courage since he’s been out of office,
0:31:38 was on Fox talking about it and said, “What are we doing going after Larry Hogan?
0:31:41 That might be our chance to actually win a Senate majority.”
0:31:44 And whatever Donald Trump wants to talk about, it doesn’t change the fact that there is an
0:31:48 election where people are going to turn up and they’re going to vote on the economy, crime
0:31:52 and policing, abortion for sure.
0:31:55 And if the only message coming out of the Republican Party is Donald Trump is a victim
0:31:59 when everyone can see that that’s not really what a victim looks like, it’s not going to
0:32:03 go well.
0:32:04 Now, do Democrats, what do you think the messaging, do you think they play up President Biden’s
0:32:10 positives as you reference or do you think they go on offense and start calling this
0:32:14 guy a felon?
0:32:15 I mean, the risk is it makes President Biden look less presidential, less bipartisan, less
0:32:22 statesman-like.
0:32:23 It lowers the contrast between him and Trump, because we know what Trump will do.
0:32:29 Do you go on offense or do you try and maintain a statesman-like demeanor?
0:32:32 Well, I think this is where you can separate Biden from his surrogates, and he has some
0:32:37 fantastic surrogates who need to be out there more.
0:32:40 I mean, John Fetterman has become the darling of the party.
0:32:44 He went from vegetable to, “Can we get this guy to come to my rally?”
0:32:48 And Republicans saying to me, I had a very funny off-air conversation with a colleague
0:32:52 who was like, “I like John Fetterman now.
0:32:55 What is that?”
0:32:56 And I was like, “Yeah, maybe you shouldn’t have been so shitty about him.”
0:33:00 He’s actually kind of always been that way.
0:33:02 You just didn’t ask him about Israel.
0:33:03 Yeah, but that isn’t that he threads the needle, right?
0:33:08 Oh, totally.
0:33:09 He throws a bone to the Republicans by saying, “I’m unapologetically pro-Israel.”
0:33:13 Had this guy as a crook.
0:33:14 Yeah, and he doesn’t think about it that way.
0:33:17 That’s the thing about John Fetterman is he doesn’t have the vibe of anyone who is calculating
0:33:22 what they’re saying.
0:33:24 And you can say that you look at his outfit, right?
0:33:26 No one picked that out, right?
0:33:27 No one said, “This is coordinated.”
0:33:29 And he just speaks from the heart.
0:33:32 And I think that that’s something that’s really resonating with folks, and you see it with
0:33:35 Gretchen Whitmer as well, Josh Shapiro, Wes Moore is becoming a superstar this way.
0:33:41 So I think that those folks can be out there threading the needle.
0:33:43 And Biden has dabbled in the convicted felon jargon a little, but in general, I want to
0:33:49 see more of the interviews like he’s on the cover of Time that came out this morning.
0:33:54 I want to see more of that, him talking about the policy issues, what he’s actually done
0:33:58 in the Middle East.
0:33:59 He’s pretty critical of Netanyahu, actually, which is something that I think will not only
0:34:05 appease the left side of the party, but a lot of the people like me were pretty moderate
0:34:10 in the middle, want Israel to do everything that they possibly can to get the hostages
0:34:14 back and to bring peace, but to recognize that Netanyahu is a bad actor and all of that.
0:34:20 So I think Biden stays a statesman, but he unleashes the beast underneath that and makes
0:34:26 sure that every one of those gettable voters knows what the alternative is, and that they
0:34:32 also are aware of the fact that if they sit it out, if they were a Nikki Haley voter or
0:34:36 a Chris Christie voter, that that is another vote for Trump.
0:34:41 He brought up a key word and something I’ve been thinking about a lot, surrogates.
0:34:45 And I’m disappointed that he hasn’t weaponized more surrogates.
0:34:49 I don’t see Mayor Pete out there.
0:34:51 I don’t see … John Fetterman wasn’t planned.
0:34:54 No, it’s total surprise.
0:34:57 And it strikes me that there are 50 or 100 incredible surrogates that could be out there.
0:35:04 Governor Newsom is really good on his feet.
0:35:05 I would argue that he might be a better candidate than an actual politician, but it strikes
0:35:11 me that why have they not put these people in, so to speak, put me in, coach?
0:35:16 Why have they not weaponized them?
0:35:17 And also, one thing I’m disappointed is that typically the person that goes on the attack
0:35:23 is the vice president.
0:35:25 And why has that not … Is it because they don’t see her as effective?
0:35:29 Is it because she is in fact ineffective?
0:35:32 And also, where’s the weaponization in the surrogate strategy here?
0:35:36 Yeah, so we are still early in campaign mode.
0:35:41 And I think that the fact that they moved up the debates puts them further on their heels.
0:35:46 You’ve got to go faster if you’ve decided that you want to have a debate June 27th.
0:35:51 So we’ve got to see that Kamala Harris, it’s been tough.
0:35:55 And we talked about the last time that you had me on.
0:35:59 She has not panned out as the superstar that a lot of Democrats hoped that she would be.
0:36:05 I was personally not a tremendous Kamala fan.
0:36:08 And the primary, and I think it said something that she dropped out before Iowa, right?
0:36:12 She didn’t even get the opportunity to have a vote cast for her.
0:36:16 And the Democratic base was sending a signal that she wasn’t what they thought she was
0:36:21 or what they had hoped that she was going to be.
0:36:24 So I think there’s a little bit of anxiety about that.
0:36:26 And I think that also she is, to give her credit, doing well talking to younger bases.
0:36:33 She’s doing a huge amount of college tours, for instance, and we know that the turnout
0:36:37 in these college towns, especially in conservative states, you know, you hear about a conservative
0:36:40 state and then suddenly there was this boom turnout for a referendum on women’s reproductive
0:36:46 rights.
0:36:47 And it’s like, oh, is there a big college town in there?
0:36:49 So she’s doing that.
0:36:50 And also, I think that she is the best representative of the administration unsurprisingly to talk
0:36:55 about women’s health.
0:36:57 And she’s been doing that really well.
0:36:58 So that’s really been her focus.
0:37:00 But I think that she has to get in on this, especially with her law enforcement background.
0:37:04 She was the top cop, right, in California.
0:37:07 And I think, you know, if we want to get away from, to fund the police, which I wish had
0:37:11 never happened, and move more towards, we’re the party of law and order, and we can make
0:37:16 that claim now, right?
0:37:17 They don’t respect any judicial decisions at this point.
0:37:21 They think the Supreme Court is on tap for them.
0:37:23 You know, Mike Johnson out there saying like, you know, I think they’ll step in, I called
0:37:27 my buddies over there and they’ll do something that she has a real role to play.
0:37:33 The surrogate strategy, it’ll be rolled out as the campaign gets going, but I would love
0:37:38 to see it more.
0:37:39 And I’m hugely enthusiastic about Democrats showing up, especially in conservative media,
0:37:42 because that’s where the persuadable voters are.
0:37:45 They’re not watching MSNBC.
0:37:47 They’re not watching CNN.
0:37:49 So they’re tuning into Vox.
0:37:51 And when Mayor Pete comes on, I still can’t call him Secretary Pete, it just feels unnatural.
0:37:57 When he comes on, he does great.
0:37:58 Yeah, he does great.
0:38:00 So, I’m with you on that.
0:38:02 Same with Governor Newsom, right?
0:38:03 Oh, he’s so charming.
0:38:04 It’s interesting that you said that though.
0:38:05 Oh, he’s so charming.
0:38:06 Yeah.
0:38:07 He’s very likable.
0:38:08 He’s very likable.
0:38:09 I remember 25 years ago, I was in San Francisco and I was thinking, I filled out the paperwork
0:38:13 to run for supervisor and I brought my friend, and we met then, I think, Supervisor Newsom.
0:38:19 And we talked to him for about two minutes, and then he walked away, and then me and my
0:38:23 friend looked at each other and I’m like, “I have no chance if that’s the competition.”
0:38:27 There’s just, my career is over before it started.
0:38:30 You meet that guy and you’re like, “I’m not even sure what he’s saying.
0:38:32 I just know I want him to be, I want to vote for him or give him money.”
0:38:36 What do you make of, you just said something very interesting, that you think there’s more,
0:38:42 that there’s more influence, more moderate or more swingable voters watching Vox.
0:38:47 I can see, I agree, than MSNBC, but you think that more moderates watch Vox and CNN.
0:38:53 Yeah.
0:38:54 Well, the Nielsen data actually bears it out.
0:38:56 So we have more Democrats and more independents who are by nature, they’re persuadables,
0:39:02 right?
0:39:03 Because they’re not going with one way or the other.
0:39:04 I tend to think a social issue usually pushes you into one bucket and now it’s abortion.
0:39:10 But yeah, the numbers bear that out and also, like, CNN’s ratings, and I love a lot of the
0:39:15 people at CNN and I think there’s a lot of really good commentary, but they just don’t
0:39:19 get many viewers technically.
0:39:23 So the percentages of persuadables has to be even less, and obviously they’re going
0:39:28 through a bit of an identity crisis and I think they have some amazing people who are
0:39:32 now anchoring big shows like the Caitlyn Collins’s of the world and Abby Phillip.
0:39:38 But they’re searching for their base and Fox has a conservative base, but we also have
0:39:44 this persuadable base and they’re the people most apt to reach out to me, right?
0:39:49 It will say, you know, I may lean towards Jesse Waters’ perspective or Greg Gutfeld’s
0:39:54 perspective, these people on the five with me, but I really appreciate your fact-based
0:40:00 commentary or that you always come to represent the Democratic side in a reasonable way.
0:40:05 And that’s the key to all of this.
0:40:07 Just be reasonable.
0:40:08 You know, don’t be unhinged and right now the Republicans look unhinged.
0:40:12 So before we cut you loose here, just handicap or give us your best guess or prediction on
0:40:19 what you think going back to Trump happens with sentencing.
0:40:23 So I’m not a lawyer and it’s a tough one.
0:40:27 I’ve tried to ingest as much information about this as possible.
0:40:32 I do come down on the side of that there will be a recommendation for jail time, but I was
0:40:37 listening to Preet Bihar’s podcast and he had a really interesting suggestion for Alvin
0:40:43 Bragg, which was to show the judge how this particular crime had been sentenced the last
0:40:50 five years, for instance, to say, these are the sentences that have been given out before
0:40:54 and then to put it more in Judge Merchan’s court than to make the straight recommendation.
0:41:01 But I don’t expect any serving of time if he’s sentenced to jail and he’s elected.
0:41:09 And then certainly it would be after the election, they’re not going to stop him from running
0:41:13 his campaign, but I think it’s over 50% likelihood and a lot of people who work in the system
0:41:23 and know the players in this really well think that that is the expectation, which is absolutely
0:41:29 unbelievable.
0:41:30 If anything, the Fulton County case was going to be the jail case that we would be hearing
0:41:35 about, but we’re not even going to see that this year.
0:41:37 Sorry.
0:41:38 Well, it feels as if Trump is daring the judge to send him to prison, and I found that it’s
0:41:44 not typically a good strategy for convicted felons.
0:41:47 No, it’s not.
0:41:50 And I don’t think that he’s going to like the result of it.
0:41:53 I mean, it’s a famous germaphobe prison is not nice.
0:41:58 And if you get the best treatment, even if you’re at Danbury playing tennis a couple
0:42:04 times a day.
0:42:05 So I think that he needs to be really careful about what he wishes for and what he thinks
0:42:11 is going to become an electoral advantage.
0:42:13 They clearly think that there’s some possibility that he’s going to be a civil rights leader
0:42:20 in all of this.
0:42:21 And we could spend hours discussing how offensive it is that he thinks that black people are
0:42:26 going to like him more now that this has happened to him, but you know, be careful what you
0:42:32 wish for because the other side of it isn’t just like a night at home alone eating pizza.
0:42:37 It’s being in jail.
0:42:39 Jessica Tarlove is a co-host on the five Fox’s weeknight news program.
0:42:43 She also offers political analysis across the Fox News channel and Fox Business Networks
0:42:48 programming.
0:42:49 Jessica is also the vice president of research and consumer insight for Bustle Digital Group.
0:42:54 She joins us from her home in New York where she is enjoying her maternity leave and has
0:42:59 just welcomed a new seven week old girl.
0:43:02 Congratulations on everything.
0:43:03 Yeah.
0:43:04 Thank you so much.
0:43:05 And thanks for having me.
0:43:07 We’ll be right back.
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0:46:15 I remember I was, I’m now at the point where my friend’s kids are getting married, and
0:46:20 it took me back to this time when I was in my late 20s, early 30s, and your fellow,
0:46:24 you were going, you know, summer was like six weddings, and I had the privilege to give
0:46:30 a bunch of toast at a bunch of different weddings, and I revisited that toast.
0:46:34 And I think it holds the test of time.
0:46:36 And this is the advice I would give to the groom, and that is there are three keys to
0:46:42 a successful relationship.
0:46:44 The first is never let your spouse be hungry or cold.
0:46:48 And everyone would laugh at that and say, “Okay, that’s funny,” but I actually think
0:46:53 that’s true.
0:46:54 I do believe that there is a difference between the gender, and for some reason every woman
0:46:57 I’ve ever hung out with is impossibly cold all of the time, and that the majority of
0:47:03 really big fights when I look back on it, the individual was either very cold or very
0:47:09 hungry.
0:47:10 So, I literally used to have in my trunk a pashmina and protein bars and invest in
0:47:13 dual climate technology.
0:47:15 Never let someone you care about be hungry or cold.
0:47:19 Two, express physical and sexual desire as often as possible, and I know that sounds
0:47:27 very base, but I think the thing that distinguishes you from a friend is sex.
0:47:33 Sex says, “I choose you.”
0:47:36 And I think it is wonderful to be in a relationship with someone, and I encourage people, especially
0:47:41 as they, you know, some of that “lust” wanes, to every time you have physical desire, every
0:47:48 time you feel romantic, every time you want to express affection, which oftentimes I think
0:47:53 is more important than sex, that you do it, and that you have an inclination, especially
0:47:58 as a dude.
0:47:59 I think affection maybe doesn’t come as easily to us, to grab their hand, to express desire.
0:48:05 Like, I just don’t think there’s, let me get in more trouble.
0:48:08 I think women want to be wanted.
0:48:10 I think we all want to be wanted physically.
0:48:12 I think it makes us feel good.
0:48:14 You know, make that person know that you choose them.
0:48:17 You choose them physically, and that you want them.
0:48:20 And then finally, the third thing, put away the scorecard.
0:48:24 And this is the most important thing I have learned in any key relationship, and that
0:48:29 is your natural inclination will be to register the contribution and the reward you’re getting
0:48:35 from your partner, your colleague, your spouse, your boyfriend, you know, whatever it might
0:48:40 be, your coworker, your co-investor.
0:48:43 And here’s the problem.
0:48:45 Sometimes you will inflate your contribution and overlook or not notice their contributions
0:48:49 or minimize theirs.
0:48:51 And if you were stupid like me, you would inject anger and disappointment into the relationship
0:48:55 based on the fact that you didn’t think they were living up to their end of the bargain.
0:48:59 I’m not suggesting you let people walk all over you.
0:49:02 On a regular basis, I shed people, I shed friends.
0:49:06 If I’m not getting something from a relationship or someone I feel, especially professionally,
0:49:10 has not treated me well, I don’t get angry, I just cut them out of my life.
0:49:14 But for the most part, what I do in the majority of my relationships is I ask myself the following
0:49:18 thing.
0:49:20 What kind of son do I want to be?
0:49:22 I used to dwell on the fact that my father wasn’t very involved in my life growing up.
0:49:27 In my mom and dad got divorced and he immediately moved to Ohio.
0:49:31 And I think deep down, I’ve always held him responsible for that and I’ve always been
0:49:34 kind of angry at him and have questioned the extent to which I should be involved in his
0:49:40 life now.
0:49:42 And then I put that bullshit score card aside and I said, okay, what kind of son do I want
0:49:47 to be?
0:49:48 And this is the reality.
0:49:49 I want to be a loving and generous son.
0:49:52 That’s it.
0:49:53 That’s where it stops.
0:49:54 That’s the only question.
0:49:55 And so I try to be that.
0:49:56 I am a loving, generous son.
0:49:58 Am I there for him as much as I was there for my mom who woke me up or who every morning
0:50:03 with a soft voice or stayed up all night telling me math problems because I was so anxious
0:50:07 because I had these, these radically scary nosebleeds for some reason in my teen years.
0:50:13 No, I did make more of an effort with my mom, but, but I am a loving and generous son because
0:50:20 I’ve put the score card away.
0:50:21 Decide what kind of partner you want to be.
0:50:24 Decide what kind of spouse you want to be.
0:50:26 Decide what kind of girlfriend you want to be and just be that person.
0:50:30 Put away the score card.
0:50:32 Never let anyone be cold or hungry.
0:50:34 Express physical desire.
0:50:36 I want and I choose you and put away the scorecard.
0:50:42 This episode was produced by Caroline Shadron.
0:50:44 Jennifer Sanchez is our associate producer and Jew Burroughs is our technical director.
0:50:49 Thank you for listening to the PropG Pod from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
0:50:52 We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy, No Malice as read by George Hahn.
0:50:57 And please follow our PropG Markets Pod wherever you get your pods for new episodes every Monday
0:51:02 and Thursday.
0:51:03 Our PropG Markets Pod is already the number one pod in business in America.
0:00:05 Fund and best-selling author of The Psychology of Money.
0:00:08 We discussed the path to wealth creation while balancing a life well spent.
0:00:12 I think once you suppress your desire, then you are almost a victim of your money.
0:00:17 You are a slave to it because you’re saying, “I want to do X,” and you’re saying, “Well,
0:00:22 your money’s telling you no.
0:00:23 You can’t do that.
0:00:24 You want to go on a vacation, but you can’t do it.”
0:00:27 I think people should really follow what their personality leads them to do.
0:00:31 You can find that conversation and many others exclusively on the Prof. G Markets feed.
0:00:40 Support for the show comes from Mercury.
0:00:42 Financial operations are needlessly complex.
0:00:44 With Mercury, you can simplify them with banking and software that power your critical
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0:01:03 Mercury, the art of simplified finances.
0:01:06 Episode 303, 303 is here.
0:01:12 I go covering parts of Colorado in 1903.
0:01:15 Henry Ford founded the Ford Motor Company.
0:01:17 True story.
0:01:18 I left my Adderall and my Ford Fiesta.
0:01:21 I came back and it’s a Ford Focus.
0:01:25 True story.
0:01:26 I was a brand strategy consultant and engaged by Ford Motor to help sell more cars.
0:01:30 My idea, add anal to every brand.
0:01:33 Anal Charger, Anal Challenger, Anal Expedition and Anal Fiesta.
0:01:39 Go, go, go!
0:01:50 Welcome to the 313rd episode of the Prof. G Pop.
0:01:53 313th?
0:01:54 It feels like if I say that three times, some sort of poltergeist is going to show up and
0:01:57 turn me into, I don’t know, the 59-year-old is angry, depressed and has erectile dysfunction.
0:02:02 No way no poltergeist needed.
0:02:03 Anyways, in today’s episode, we speak with Jessica Tarlov, a co-host on the Five, Fox’s
0:02:09 weeknight news program to hear about Trump’s conviction and what it means for American
0:02:13 politics.
0:02:14 You are going to say that you heard about Jess here, if you don’t watch Fox.
0:02:19 On Fox, she’s a bit of a superstar, but I just love that her star is literally the shooting
0:02:24 star and she’s, I don’t know her well, but I do know her and she’s just an impressive,
0:02:29 cool woman.
0:02:31 Anyways, Jessica has become our go-to Yoda for all things politics.
0:02:36 I find that she kind of hits it up the middle.
0:02:39 She’s an unabashed Democrat, but she comes from a background of consulting and data,
0:02:44 and oh my gosh, you want to see just her.
0:02:47 I just love, my favorite moment is when the five or four of the five say something just
0:02:52 fucking ridiculous and she just punctures them in the middle of the forehead with a bunch
0:02:57 of data and they all sit there looking as if they’ve just been caught masturbating.
0:03:00 I mean, they have the strangest looks on their face like, “Who the fuck invited this smart
0:03:03 Democrat to come in and make us look like idiots?”
0:03:06 Anyways, she’s fantastic.
0:03:08 What else is happening?
0:03:09 The dog is back in London.
0:03:11 I went to the UEFA finals.
0:03:12 I saw Dortmund play Real Madrid, by the way, Mbappe, not that you care about football.
0:03:17 By the way, it’s called football, folks.
0:03:19 3 billion people can’t be wrong.
0:03:20 It’s called football.
0:03:21 Have hired Mbappe, who’s arguably the best, maybe the best player in the world right now.
0:03:26 I’ll probably get shit for that.
0:03:28 All fans are very, very serious about their football, but Real Madrid did not need Mbappe.
0:03:33 They’re going to be dominant now.
0:03:35 Anyways, took my two sons and their friends, Santi from Florida, who came all the way over
0:03:41 just for three days.
0:03:42 You can do that when you’re, literally no jet lag when you’re 16.
0:03:45 No jet lag.
0:03:46 I go come up early in the morning.
0:03:47 No problem.
0:03:48 Time to go to sleep.
0:03:49 No problem going to sleep.
0:03:50 So little bit different.
0:03:51 A little bit different when you enter your sixth or seventh decade.
0:03:55 It’s great to be back here.
0:03:56 When I say great, it’s just good.
0:03:58 It’s not great.
0:03:59 It’s sort of good.
0:04:00 It’s a beautiful day here for London.
0:04:02 It’s like almost hit 60 degrees for a moment.
0:04:05 And I think I saw this round orange thing in the side, although I will say I do love
0:04:09 London in June as the days go on forever.
0:04:12 It’s really nice.
0:04:14 It’s also nice to be back, see my kids, you know, nice to be home, get back, get back
0:04:19 in the swing of things.
0:04:20 Anyways, let’s move on to some news.
0:04:22 The Wall Street Journal reported that New York State is proposing a bill that would
0:04:26 prohibit social media companies from serving up algorithmically driven feeds to minors
0:04:30 and prevent them from delivering notifications during the wee hours of the night without
0:04:33 parental consent.
0:04:35 Governor Cathy Hockel believes this measure is needed in order to make these platforms
0:04:38 less addictive and to address the growing crisis of teens in distress.
0:04:42 According to the journal, opponents that is industry leaders and trade groups have questions
0:04:46 about the constitutionality of the proposal and believe media literacy would have a more
0:04:51 immediate impact.
0:04:52 What the fuck does that even mean?
0:04:53 They’re supposed to read about how terrible these social media platforms are.
0:04:58 Look, when we look back on this era of big tech, we’re going to regret the income inequality,
0:05:01 we’re going to regret the monopoly abuse, we’re going to regret the weaponization of
0:05:05 our elections, we’re going to regret the deep fakes, the shallow fakes, but more than anything,
0:05:09 more than anything.
0:05:11 We’re going to ask ourselves, how the fuck did we let this happen to our kids?
0:05:16 My colleague at NYU, Jonathan Hightison, great work basically demonstrating irrefutably
0:05:21 that levels of self-harm, depression and suicide have gone up, especially among girls, since
0:05:26 social went on mobile and as a parent and someone who you would think would be really
0:05:31 mindful of this stuff, I got to be honest, we’re failing.
0:05:34 My kid struggles with device addiction, he’s on social media too much and people say, “Well,
0:05:40 just take it away or just get them off the social media platform,” said anyone who does
0:05:44 not have kids.
0:05:45 This is how they get their homework.
0:05:47 This is how they communicate with their friends.
0:05:49 I would bet that one-third, at least one-third, sometimes two-thirds of all the anxiety in
0:05:55 our house focuses on social media or devices.
0:05:59 These things are a fucking cancer and I also worry that a lot of my creativity, a lot of
0:06:05 my risk-taking came from the fact that I did not have this amazing casino, movie theater,
0:06:12 dopa machine, crack pipe in my pocket that I could just sit on the couch all day that
0:06:18 I would call people, I would call friends that I didn’t know well or potential friends
0:06:22 and say, “Hey, let’s meet at the park,” where I would go, I used to go to Westwood Park
0:06:27 and play in pickup games when I was 10 and 11 years old.
0:06:30 That wasn’t easy, it was kind of intimidating and the kids were all bigger than me, but
0:06:34 I was so fucking bored I had to get out of the house and this is the problem.
0:06:38 Kids aren’t bored now, they’re just at home and they go down these rabbit holes.
0:06:42 I have seen some of the shit that these kids say to each other.
0:06:45 You want to talk about overprotecting offline and underprotecting online, oh my god.
0:06:50 Any parent out there, demand that you get passwords for your kids’ social media and
0:06:54 go on there and see how these kids are talking to each other, it is pretty, pretty scary.
0:06:59 I think that this is something that is going to be fixed, I think parents are catching
0:07:03 on to just how incredibly damaging this has been and that the mendacious Fox who run these
0:07:08 companies will pretend that they give a good goddamn about your children, they don’t.
0:07:12 They pretend about their own wealth and their own ability to get their kids into the right
0:07:16 schools and a lot of them, a lot of them, see above Steve Jobs didn’t allow their kids
0:07:20 to be on devices because they know firsthand just how incredibly damaging these things
0:07:25 can be.
0:07:26 So let’s talk about what platforms they’re using.
0:07:28 Percentage of US teens ages 13 to 17 who say they visit or use the following apps or sites.
0:07:34 This is from Pew, number one is YouTube with 71% of US teens 13 to 3 out of 4 teens are
0:07:42 on YouTube every day.
0:07:45 Think about that every day and 54% over half, over half of 13 to 17 year olds say they are
0:07:53 either almost constantly or several times a day on YouTube and for TikTok it is 49%.
0:08:00 Just half of American teenagers are on TikTok either almost constantly or several times
0:08:05 a day and we have the added bonus with a platform influenced by the CCP of knowing they’re seeing
0:08:10 the world through a frame that is being influenced by the Chinese Communist Party.
0:08:14 What could go wrong?
0:08:16 What could go wrong?
0:08:17 And then Sam Chat which I would argue is the least mendacious of the mendacious Fox, it’s
0:08:21 about 43%.
0:08:22 Then we go to Instagram at 35% and this isn’t the total number.
0:08:28 This is the percentage of teens who say they’re using it almost constantly or several times
0:08:31 a day and then Facebook, which I guess is turned into the new Lamo one only has a total
0:08:36 of 19% or only about 10% are using it constantly or several times a day.
0:08:43 This is the frame through which our kids are developing their brain.
0:08:47 This is what is rewiring when your kid from 13 to 17 their brain gets rewired.
0:08:54 My kid is sort of the same person, but not really in terms of where he was at 12 and
0:08:59 where he was now, their brain gets rewired, the hormones kick in, the prefrontal cortex
0:09:04 finally starts to grow.
0:09:05 They start perceiving things, reacting to them, their social capital shows up and they
0:09:10 start thinking about, well, maybe my parents don’t know everything, who do I find or what
0:09:14 are the sources of information that influence who I am and my view of the world.
0:09:18 That is mostly, I’d like to believe still their peer group interesting study across parents.
0:09:23 We like to think that we’re engineers of the sheep, we’re not.
0:09:26 We’re herders, we’re shepherds, we get to choose the field they graze on, we get to
0:09:29 choose what food they get, we get to choose what direction they graze in, but the sheep
0:09:33 comes to us, right?
0:09:35 We’re not engineers.
0:09:36 Just ask yourself, what would the CCP want?
0:09:39 So we have this device or this platform or this media that is not only depressing our
0:09:45 kids, but is giving them a fucked up view of the world.
0:09:48 You don’t think the zombie apocalypse of useful idiots on campus has something to do with
0:09:53 the frame through which they perceive the world.
0:09:55 Are you totally confused as to how they would even get there?
0:09:59 Well, see above, tick and talk.
0:10:04 Okay, moving on to a lesson on brand.
0:10:06 The aforementioned Wall Street Journal who broke the news about New York’s social media
0:10:09 legislation is going through a multi-million dollar rebranding campaign.
0:10:13 Axios reported that the journal is introducing a new tagline.
0:10:16 It’s your business as it looks to attract a broader audience beyond the uber-finance
0:10:20 centric people and C-suite executives.
0:10:23 To achieve this rebranding, the journal is investing heavily in paid marketing.
0:10:27 You’ll likely see their efforts on billboards and office buildings and social media.
0:10:31 Okay, does this make sense?
0:10:32 Keep in mind, I’m biased or I should be biased.
0:10:35 I have spent my entire professional career, that’s not true, the first three quarters of
0:10:39 my professional career based on the following algorithm.
0:10:44 From the end of World War II to essentially the introduction of Google, the way you printed
0:10:48 money, the algorithm for creating shareholder value was the following.
0:10:51 Find a mediocre product you can produce at the lowest cost at scale, a mediocre salty
0:10:56 snack, sugary drink, car, tennis shoe, and then wrap it in these amazing brand codes
0:11:02 of youth, American masculinity, European elegance, sacks, never goes out of style, paternal care,
0:11:09 maternal love.
0:11:10 Why?
0:11:11 Why should you spend $3.30 on $.30 worth of peanut butter paste?
0:11:15 Because choosing moms choose Jiff.
0:11:16 You love your kids more, why?
0:11:18 And how do you prove it?
0:11:19 Buy branded toothpaste.
0:11:21 And this was licensed to print money.
0:11:24 Sell a product with 80 or 90 points of margin.
0:11:27 The can is the most expensive thing about Coca-Cola in terms of the actual product, but the real
0:11:32 expense and the real genius is the brand code that you are American and youthful and you’d
0:11:36 like to teach the world to sing in perfect harmony.
0:11:39 Or you’re like Michael Jackson if you drink Pepsi, what have you, just drink more Coors
0:11:42 Light and you’re going to be hot and on the beach playing volleyball with other hot people.
0:11:46 By the way, that has not happened to me.
0:11:48 I’ve consumed a great deal of beer in my life and modest volleyball player and just don’t
0:11:54 look the same way on the court.
0:11:56 Anyways, this was the brand code.
0:11:57 This was the algorithm for creating shareholder values.
0:12:01 He’s incredibly efficient and cheap broadcast vehicles.
0:12:05 You hire very talented people who show up wearing black, who are very attractive and you love
0:12:09 to hang out with after hours who come up with these amazing stories.
0:12:12 They tell these stories on these very efficient mediums that get huge scale, infuse this mediocre
0:12:17 product that they can produce at scale, edit a low cost with these incredible brand associations
0:12:22 and brand codes and then boom, stuff the channel with it, other people’s channels that they
0:12:26 spend the capital and they’re good at retail and we print money.
0:12:30 We’re Procter and Gamble.
0:12:31 We’re Chevy.
0:12:32 We’re like a rock.
0:12:33 We’re a unilever.
0:12:34 I mean, these companies were ABN Bev, right?
0:12:36 Oh my God, aren’t those frogs just ridiculously fucking cute.
0:12:40 And then, and then Google came along and we no longer needed to defer to the shorthand
0:12:45 that is brand.
0:12:46 That’s what brand is.
0:12:47 I don’t have time to do diligence on every hotel, so I will defer to the Mandarin Oriental
0:12:52 in the four seasons.
0:12:53 Why?
0:12:54 Because usually when I travel, someone else’s O is paying and it’s O as an eight.
0:12:56 But now I no longer need the shorthand of brand.
0:12:59 I no longer need advertising.
0:13:01 What can I do?
0:13:02 I can go on my social graph.
0:13:03 I can go on TripAdvisor.
0:13:04 I can Google and go to AI.
0:13:06 And what I find out is that when I’m in London, I want to stay at the Chiltern Firehouse.
0:13:10 Why?
0:13:11 Because I am that douchebag that likes to hang out with people who are much younger and much
0:13:14 hotter than him.
0:13:15 And I’m willing to put up with a substandard room, which they are in their choppy, to stay
0:13:18 in an Andrew Bilaz Hotel.
0:13:20 He’s got the algorithm down, underinvest in the actual hotel room, overinvest in the public
0:13:24 spaces, create the illusion of scarcity and cool, and people will pay 800 pounds such that
0:13:29 they have access to this really cool room.
0:13:31 This is the conversion of the brand age to the innovation age to the social age, where
0:13:36 your social graph and these new digital mechanisms of getting you to exactly the right product.
0:13:41 Think about the waste of any broadcast commercial.
0:13:44 What percentage of people watching Rachel Maddow tonight really have opioid-induced
0:13:48 constipation?
0:13:49 Well, not a lot.
0:13:51 Hopefully not a lot.
0:13:52 Jesus Christ, I hope not a lot.
0:13:54 Anyways, this is, this is the problem.
0:13:57 Because if I have opioid-induced constipation, I type it into Google or AI, and I get exact
0:14:03 information.
0:14:04 It’s one-to-one.
0:14:05 It’s pull versus push.
0:14:07 So the brand era is over.
0:14:10 Let’s bring this back to the Wall Street Journal, Scott.
0:14:11 I don’t think this is a great idea.
0:14:13 I think maybe a little bit of it to announce the rebranding, I would try and get free or
0:14:17 earn media.
0:14:18 But how do you know?
0:14:19 How do you know you’re a company that is not going to add 10, 50, or $100 billion in
0:14:24 market capitalization over the next 12 months?
0:14:26 See, you advertise.
0:14:29 That’s it.
0:14:30 Professor of Brand Strategy, NYU Stern, founder of Profit Brand Strategy, I have made my living
0:14:35 preaching about the power of brand.
0:14:38 It outs you now in this era is not getting it.
0:14:42 Branding in the traditional sense, and that is trying to fill an empty vessel of a mediocre
0:14:46 product or these brand associations, the sun has passed midday on that.
0:14:50 Don Draper has been drawn and quartered.
0:14:53 We are in an innovation age now where it’s about the product.
0:14:55 It’s mostly about supply chain, in my view, and I’ll come back to that at a later date.
0:15:00 But to think that rebranding something is going to reignite the structural decline being
0:15:03 felt by newspapers and content companies, boss, you’re watching too much TV.
0:15:09 We’ll be right back for our conversation with Jessica Tarloff.
0:15:16 Support for PropG comes from Atlassian.
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0:15:23 teams to accomplish what would otherwise be impossible alone.
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0:18:03 Welcome back.
0:18:16 Here’s our conversation with Jessica Tarloff, a co-host on the Fox’s weeknight news program.
0:18:22 Jess, where did this podcast find you?
0:18:26 At home in New York City, in the middle of my maternity leave, so I’m thrilled to talk
0:18:30 to an adult about something.
0:18:34 Maternity leave.
0:18:35 Oh my gosh.
0:18:36 How long is that?
0:18:37 I am entitled to 16 weeks paid maternity leave.
0:18:40 Good for you.
0:18:42 Yeah.
0:18:43 That’s a whole other talk.
0:18:44 Which everyone should be.
0:18:45 Yes, it is.
0:18:46 I would love to do a childcare conversation for sure.
0:18:48 By the way, does your husband get paternity leave?
0:18:50 He does.
0:18:51 They don’t have a formal policy.
0:18:52 It’s just kind of like a take what you need situation and I still, because he works in
0:18:56 finance, I still think that they are a little uneasy with taking a lot of time, but people
0:19:02 seem to be splitting it up.
0:19:04 Like they take a bit at the beginning and then when they really want to be off, like
0:19:08 in August, they’re like, “Oh, I’m on paternity leave.”
0:19:10 So it’s kind of a mixed bag.
0:19:12 Did you take time with yours?
0:19:15 So just to you know, I’ve always had my own businesses, but that take as much as you need
0:19:22 is a trick.
0:19:23 I used to do the same thing.
0:19:24 I used to tell people, people say, “What’s your vacation policy?”
0:19:26 I’m like, “You need a vacation, take a vacation.”
0:19:28 And people in a high achiever firm all feel this implicit pressure to take no time.
0:19:34 So I found it was the perfect model to make sure that no one took any time.
0:19:37 How’s that from being a terrible boss?
0:19:40 I mean, it’s honestly how you keep up, but again, it’s a whole other story, but I lived,
0:19:46 I think you know.
0:19:47 Yeah, well, we’ve talked about it.
0:19:48 When I lived in London, I did an internship for someone who was doing a maternity cover,
0:19:53 which can be up to a year over there.
0:19:55 And then the woman came back.
0:19:59 They didn’t want to get rid of the guy who had subbed in and had done such a fantastic
0:20:02 job.
0:20:03 And in the end, the woman ended up getting pushed out a couple years later because there
0:20:08 really wasn’t a role for her left, but they legally couldn’t let her come, not come back
0:20:14 after a year off.
0:20:15 And it turned into this whole mess of a thing.
0:20:17 So they’re big politics with it to say the least.
0:20:21 Kids ruin everything.
0:20:23 All right, let’s get to the serious stuff here.
0:20:26 So 34 felon accounts, what do you make of this historic verdict?
0:20:30 Well, it seems like it was the correct verdict, and everyone has really been parsing the difference
0:20:35 between what the jury did and whether this was politically motivated or if this was the
0:20:40 right thing to bring the case.
0:20:42 It seems like the jury did a fantastic job.
0:20:45 They evaluated the evidence, they won, they made a timely decision.
0:20:48 I was following really closely, at least on social media, all the questions that they
0:20:52 were asking, all of the legal commentators kept saying, “Those are the right questions
0:20:56 to be asking, paid great attention,” et cetera.
0:20:59 And Todd Blanche, Donald Trump’s lawyer, did a bunch of interviews, and he said, “We
0:21:05 expected that this could happen.
0:21:07 We made all of our decisions together about how to present our case.
0:21:10 We obviously approved the jurors and the alternates, and this is the way that it goes sometimes.”
0:21:15 We’ll see how the appeal process goes.
0:21:17 The other side of the coin, which is, should Alvin Bragg have brought this case?
0:21:22 And I was listening to your latest episode of Pivot before we got on, so I know that
0:21:27 you had Eli Hone gone, who obviously has a bit of a counter-opinion to a lot of Democrats
0:21:32 who are seething about even mentioning the fact that this was a case that perhaps should
0:21:39 not have been brought and that bringing it up to a federal charge with the campaign finance
0:21:45 fraud, essentially, was not the right way to go, is the other side of the coin.
0:21:50 And that’s where I think the really interesting stuff is.
0:21:52 Well, let’s put forward that thesis.
0:21:55 My fear is that this is going to help the president get elected, that the majority of
0:22:02 the voting public will see this as basically about sex, and that if they figured out a
0:22:08 way to elevate and attempt to cover up sex or hush money to a felony, that they’re going
0:22:15 to need more courts, that there are a lot of people who pay off mistresses or end up
0:22:21 doing things that are illegal under the context of trying to keep affairs discreet or quiet,
0:22:30 and that this is selective prosecution, and that this will be further play into the whole
0:22:35 narrative of the deep state is coming after me, rally his base.
0:22:39 My understanding is he raised a record amount of money or a lot of money post-Sovietic.
0:22:44 Distinct of the merits of when you bring a case or don’t, just strategically, if you
0:22:50 don’t want Trump to be president, do you think this helps or hurts us?
0:22:54 I think it’s going to take a few weeks to a month to understand that, and the polling
0:22:58 is really fuzzy at this moment, and some people are just ingesting the information.
0:23:03 Some people haven’t even paid attention to it yet, and the Biden campaign is still figuring
0:23:07 out how they want to approach this.
0:23:09 How often do you want to call him Donald Trump, and how often do you want to call him convicted
0:23:12 felon Donald Trump?
0:23:15 And that’s something that the communications people are struggling with as we speak.
0:23:19 But I actually am less pessimistic about it than you are, and the reason for that is that
0:23:25 I only care about a small subset of voters.
0:23:28 The bases of the parties don’t matter to me at this point, and I know that Biden’s polling
0:23:33 has been softer with African-Americans and Latino voters and some young voters, but that
0:23:39 happened in 2020 as well, and people came home.
0:23:43 So I’m putting that to the side now and thinking, okay, who is my focus?
0:23:48 Moderate Republicans and independent voters.
0:23:51 And there have been a few surveys taken since the verdict, and we’ll get more and more,
0:23:54 but ABC, Ipsos, was out there in the field, and they got that 52% of independents say
0:24:01 that he should withdraw from the race, and 16% of Republicans, and 16% might seem like
0:24:07 a low number, but there’s your swung election, right?
0:24:10 Those are your swing states, potentially.
0:24:13 Morning console got basically a mirror image of that result.
0:24:16 CBS also something similar.
0:24:19 So if you think about how many people are actually up for grabs, how few we have to
0:24:24 persuade that this matters and that this isn’t just a one-off that he lied about this, but
0:24:30 that he is a chronic liar, and that has been a thread through the Eugene Carroll case,
0:24:35 the Civil Fraud case, and if we ever get to the Marquis cases, which obviously I would
0:24:39 have preferred if we were talking about the nuclear secrets that are hanging out in the
0:24:43 toilet at Mar-a-Lago or January 6th before we were talking about the Hush Money case.
0:24:49 I think that you can persuade a lot of people with that to just say, you know what, maybe
0:24:53 I was thinking about giving him another shot, but the guy is such an effin liar.
0:24:58 You work with, I mean, you work with a conservative network, or what is the vibe when you talk
0:25:06 to people off camera, are they, do they generally believe this is another example of the deep
0:25:12 state going after, you know, as a function of Trump derangement syndrome, or are they,
0:25:17 this is bad for us?
0:25:19 What’s the vibe off-mic or off-camera among conservatives?
0:25:23 I think that they actually feel both of those things, and that we’re always trying to put
0:25:27 people into one box, and it’s actually a lot more complex than that.
0:25:31 So yes, the deep state is real, and they’ll go back and try to relitigate, quote, “Rush
0:25:36 a gate with me,” and then I’ll get all hot and bothered again about Hillary Clinton,
0:25:39 and they’ll be like, “Actually, I don’t want to talk to you about this anymore.”
0:25:42 And then they also understand the fact that this does not help their case.
0:25:48 And you can tell that Republicans know that it’s a bad thing from the type of panic and
0:25:53 the way that they’re speaking about him being a convicted felon.
0:25:56 A, they want to raise a ton of money, which they did, I mean, we’ll see what the actual
0:26:00 figures are, but they’re reporting $141 million, which is astronomical.
0:26:05 They will not say what it will be used for, which I’m always paying attention to.
0:26:08 So okay, you’ve got all this money now, are you going to open a field office, and then
0:26:12 they’re like, “Actually, maybe we’ll just pay Donald Trump’s legal fees.”
0:26:15 So that’s somewhere the Democrats still have a huge advantage.
0:26:18 But they know that this isn’t helpful.
0:26:21 No one ever wants to be indicted.
0:26:23 No one ever wants to be convicted.
0:26:25 And something that I don’t think folks are paying as much attention to as they should
0:26:29 be, every day that Donald Trump is out there just grievances, wall to wall, “I’m a political
0:26:36 prisoner,” whatever else he’s talking about, he’s not talking about the issues.
0:26:40 And the issues are the ones that are going to sway that little group of people, though
0:26:43 you’re talking about the independents and the Republicans, who have decided either he
0:26:48 is this guy and we don’t care, or he is this guy, and I’d like to hear something, a plan
0:26:52 for the economy, a plan for the border.
0:26:55 So I think that that does lead to an advantage for the Democrats and disappointment for my
0:27:01 wonderful colleagues, who I look forward to rejoining in Milwaukee in July, which is a
0:27:06 crazy first week back.
0:27:08 That’s going to be really interesting, the convention, Ryan.
0:27:11 It’s going to be…
0:27:12 I’m actually a little scared.
0:27:15 I live right by the courthouse in Manhattan, and it was remarkably low-key.
0:27:19 I saw a few, and I wouldn’t call them parades, but a bunch of Trump cars that had Blue Lives
0:27:28 Matter flags, and now the upside down American flag, because Samuel Alito is some sort of
0:27:33 hero for a quote not standing up to his wife, who did that all by herself or whatever.
0:27:39 So when Trump was coming in and out, they drive with him, but going to the convention
0:27:43 four days after the sentencing, I think it could get a little wild.
0:27:49 I’m not saying January 6 levels, but you have to be ready for anything to happen, especially
0:27:54 if he’s given jail time.
0:27:56 But that’s…
0:27:57 So it’s just some anecdotal evidence, and I’m curious if you’ve picked up on the same
0:28:00 thing.
0:28:01 I find one of the most encouraging things, or a signal, and granted, I’m looking for
0:28:04 signals that this is going to help get Biden reelected.
0:28:08 But when…
0:28:09 I was living in Florida in Delray Beach, and right after the election, there was a parade
0:28:13 for a stop-to-steal parade.
0:28:16 And Delray is actually kind of purplish/blue, but there is…
0:28:21 You go three miles inland, and it’s deep red.
0:28:24 I could not get over the number of people in the passion around the stop-to-steal, and
0:28:30 they had a desk set up, information, and just for fun, I walked over and had them explain.
0:28:37 And these were people who were deeply committed and believed that the election had been stolen.
0:28:41 I thought, “I’m just so out of touch with America.”
0:28:43 And the passion they felt, the number of people…
0:28:48 When the case…
0:28:49 When the verdict came down, I was encouraged at how what I’ll call “little agita” grievance
0:28:55 or rage among the general populace was.
0:28:57 I see it as there is rage fatigue, that people are starting to think, “You know what?
0:29:02 I’m still going to vote for them, but I’m not going to storm the Capitol.
0:29:07 Did you sense the same thing?”
0:29:09 I mean, that’s the hope, but we’re also far out from the election.
0:29:12 I think the vibe in October is going to be a lot more heightened on both sides of this.
0:29:19 I was surprised that there weren’t more lefties showing up at the courthouse to troll him,
0:29:24 right?
0:29:25 Or standing outside of Trump Tower and the New Tiffany’s, which is gorgeous, and trying
0:29:29 to do it that way.
0:29:30 So I think that we’re just a bit too far out for it, but I think it will be less, because
0:29:36 people probably have learned a lesson or two from the number of January Sixers who have
0:29:40 gotten pretty serious sentences, and the number of people who have been very forthcoming with
0:29:47 their transition out of being a Trump supporter and talking about how they were manipulated,
0:29:53 how they were brainwashed, how they fed him a bunch of lies.
0:29:56 And my hope is that Democrats will be able to connect what he’s saying about this Alvin
0:30:01 Bratt case to the supposition that Donald Trump lies to you at every single turn.
0:30:08 Fox is doing some really cool new polling work.
0:30:11 They have a new issues tracker, and they also have this deal breaker question, which I think
0:30:16 is so awesome.
0:30:17 What are the deal breaker issues for you?
0:30:18 Number one was abortion.
0:30:19 I think Democrats need to get back to talking about preserving female reproductive rights,
0:30:25 that that’s something that’s always going to win for them.
0:30:27 But on the issues tracker, Biden has a 15-point advantage on honesty and trustworthiness, and
0:30:32 I don’t think they’re leaning into it enough.
0:30:35 So before you became kind of a household name, you were a consultant around messaging.
0:30:40 So I want you to do sort of kind of arm-share consulting.
0:30:46 We’re the Republican Party.
0:30:47 What is our messaging around this issue moving forward?
0:30:51 I think that you’ve really got to split it up, and you got to pick your best voices that
0:30:55 are going to be out there kind of parroting what Donald Trump wants to hear.
0:30:59 So it seems like JD Vance, Marco Rubio are taking the mantle for that.
0:31:03 They’re both high up in the VP search.
0:31:04 I think JD Vance is probably ahead of Rubio in that and let them, people who are respected
0:31:12 as being intelligent folks, talk about it.
0:31:15 And the rest of the party really has got to get back to talking about the issues.
0:31:19 I saw how Larry Hogan was totally maligned for saying something pretty normal.
0:31:24 Let’s respect the jury decision.
0:31:26 He didn’t even say what he thought about Donald Trump, even though we all know what
0:31:30 it is that he thinks.
0:31:32 And people like Kevin McCarthy, who has found some courage since he’s been out of office,
0:31:38 was on Fox talking about it and said, “What are we doing going after Larry Hogan?
0:31:41 That might be our chance to actually win a Senate majority.”
0:31:44 And whatever Donald Trump wants to talk about, it doesn’t change the fact that there is an
0:31:48 election where people are going to turn up and they’re going to vote on the economy, crime
0:31:52 and policing, abortion for sure.
0:31:55 And if the only message coming out of the Republican Party is Donald Trump is a victim
0:31:59 when everyone can see that that’s not really what a victim looks like, it’s not going to
0:32:03 go well.
0:32:04 Now, do Democrats, what do you think the messaging, do you think they play up President Biden’s
0:32:10 positives as you reference or do you think they go on offense and start calling this
0:32:14 guy a felon?
0:32:15 I mean, the risk is it makes President Biden look less presidential, less bipartisan, less
0:32:22 statesman-like.
0:32:23 It lowers the contrast between him and Trump, because we know what Trump will do.
0:32:29 Do you go on offense or do you try and maintain a statesman-like demeanor?
0:32:32 Well, I think this is where you can separate Biden from his surrogates, and he has some
0:32:37 fantastic surrogates who need to be out there more.
0:32:40 I mean, John Fetterman has become the darling of the party.
0:32:44 He went from vegetable to, “Can we get this guy to come to my rally?”
0:32:48 And Republicans saying to me, I had a very funny off-air conversation with a colleague
0:32:52 who was like, “I like John Fetterman now.
0:32:55 What is that?”
0:32:56 And I was like, “Yeah, maybe you shouldn’t have been so shitty about him.”
0:33:00 He’s actually kind of always been that way.
0:33:02 You just didn’t ask him about Israel.
0:33:03 Yeah, but that isn’t that he threads the needle, right?
0:33:08 Oh, totally.
0:33:09 He throws a bone to the Republicans by saying, “I’m unapologetically pro-Israel.”
0:33:13 Had this guy as a crook.
0:33:14 Yeah, and he doesn’t think about it that way.
0:33:17 That’s the thing about John Fetterman is he doesn’t have the vibe of anyone who is calculating
0:33:22 what they’re saying.
0:33:24 And you can say that you look at his outfit, right?
0:33:26 No one picked that out, right?
0:33:27 No one said, “This is coordinated.”
0:33:29 And he just speaks from the heart.
0:33:32 And I think that that’s something that’s really resonating with folks, and you see it with
0:33:35 Gretchen Whitmer as well, Josh Shapiro, Wes Moore is becoming a superstar this way.
0:33:41 So I think that those folks can be out there threading the needle.
0:33:43 And Biden has dabbled in the convicted felon jargon a little, but in general, I want to
0:33:49 see more of the interviews like he’s on the cover of Time that came out this morning.
0:33:54 I want to see more of that, him talking about the policy issues, what he’s actually done
0:33:58 in the Middle East.
0:33:59 He’s pretty critical of Netanyahu, actually, which is something that I think will not only
0:34:05 appease the left side of the party, but a lot of the people like me were pretty moderate
0:34:10 in the middle, want Israel to do everything that they possibly can to get the hostages
0:34:14 back and to bring peace, but to recognize that Netanyahu is a bad actor and all of that.
0:34:20 So I think Biden stays a statesman, but he unleashes the beast underneath that and makes
0:34:26 sure that every one of those gettable voters knows what the alternative is, and that they
0:34:32 also are aware of the fact that if they sit it out, if they were a Nikki Haley voter or
0:34:36 a Chris Christie voter, that that is another vote for Trump.
0:34:41 He brought up a key word and something I’ve been thinking about a lot, surrogates.
0:34:45 And I’m disappointed that he hasn’t weaponized more surrogates.
0:34:49 I don’t see Mayor Pete out there.
0:34:51 I don’t see … John Fetterman wasn’t planned.
0:34:54 No, it’s total surprise.
0:34:57 And it strikes me that there are 50 or 100 incredible surrogates that could be out there.
0:35:04 Governor Newsom is really good on his feet.
0:35:05 I would argue that he might be a better candidate than an actual politician, but it strikes
0:35:11 me that why have they not put these people in, so to speak, put me in, coach?
0:35:16 Why have they not weaponized them?
0:35:17 And also, one thing I’m disappointed is that typically the person that goes on the attack
0:35:23 is the vice president.
0:35:25 And why has that not … Is it because they don’t see her as effective?
0:35:29 Is it because she is in fact ineffective?
0:35:32 And also, where’s the weaponization in the surrogate strategy here?
0:35:36 Yeah, so we are still early in campaign mode.
0:35:41 And I think that the fact that they moved up the debates puts them further on their heels.
0:35:46 You’ve got to go faster if you’ve decided that you want to have a debate June 27th.
0:35:51 So we’ve got to see that Kamala Harris, it’s been tough.
0:35:55 And we talked about the last time that you had me on.
0:35:59 She has not panned out as the superstar that a lot of Democrats hoped that she would be.
0:36:05 I was personally not a tremendous Kamala fan.
0:36:08 And the primary, and I think it said something that she dropped out before Iowa, right?
0:36:12 She didn’t even get the opportunity to have a vote cast for her.
0:36:16 And the Democratic base was sending a signal that she wasn’t what they thought she was
0:36:21 or what they had hoped that she was going to be.
0:36:24 So I think there’s a little bit of anxiety about that.
0:36:26 And I think that also she is, to give her credit, doing well talking to younger bases.
0:36:33 She’s doing a huge amount of college tours, for instance, and we know that the turnout
0:36:37 in these college towns, especially in conservative states, you know, you hear about a conservative
0:36:40 state and then suddenly there was this boom turnout for a referendum on women’s reproductive
0:36:46 rights.
0:36:47 And it’s like, oh, is there a big college town in there?
0:36:49 So she’s doing that.
0:36:50 And also, I think that she is the best representative of the administration unsurprisingly to talk
0:36:55 about women’s health.
0:36:57 And she’s been doing that really well.
0:36:58 So that’s really been her focus.
0:37:00 But I think that she has to get in on this, especially with her law enforcement background.
0:37:04 She was the top cop, right, in California.
0:37:07 And I think, you know, if we want to get away from, to fund the police, which I wish had
0:37:11 never happened, and move more towards, we’re the party of law and order, and we can make
0:37:16 that claim now, right?
0:37:17 They don’t respect any judicial decisions at this point.
0:37:21 They think the Supreme Court is on tap for them.
0:37:23 You know, Mike Johnson out there saying like, you know, I think they’ll step in, I called
0:37:27 my buddies over there and they’ll do something that she has a real role to play.
0:37:33 The surrogate strategy, it’ll be rolled out as the campaign gets going, but I would love
0:37:38 to see it more.
0:37:39 And I’m hugely enthusiastic about Democrats showing up, especially in conservative media,
0:37:42 because that’s where the persuadable voters are.
0:37:45 They’re not watching MSNBC.
0:37:47 They’re not watching CNN.
0:37:49 So they’re tuning into Vox.
0:37:51 And when Mayor Pete comes on, I still can’t call him Secretary Pete, it just feels unnatural.
0:37:57 When he comes on, he does great.
0:37:58 Yeah, he does great.
0:38:00 So, I’m with you on that.
0:38:02 Same with Governor Newsom, right?
0:38:03 Oh, he’s so charming.
0:38:04 It’s interesting that you said that though.
0:38:05 Oh, he’s so charming.
0:38:06 Yeah.
0:38:07 He’s very likable.
0:38:08 He’s very likable.
0:38:09 I remember 25 years ago, I was in San Francisco and I was thinking, I filled out the paperwork
0:38:13 to run for supervisor and I brought my friend, and we met then, I think, Supervisor Newsom.
0:38:19 And we talked to him for about two minutes, and then he walked away, and then me and my
0:38:23 friend looked at each other and I’m like, “I have no chance if that’s the competition.”
0:38:27 There’s just, my career is over before it started.
0:38:30 You meet that guy and you’re like, “I’m not even sure what he’s saying.
0:38:32 I just know I want him to be, I want to vote for him or give him money.”
0:38:36 What do you make of, you just said something very interesting, that you think there’s more,
0:38:42 that there’s more influence, more moderate or more swingable voters watching Vox.
0:38:47 I can see, I agree, than MSNBC, but you think that more moderates watch Vox and CNN.
0:38:53 Yeah.
0:38:54 Well, the Nielsen data actually bears it out.
0:38:56 So we have more Democrats and more independents who are by nature, they’re persuadables,
0:39:02 right?
0:39:03 Because they’re not going with one way or the other.
0:39:04 I tend to think a social issue usually pushes you into one bucket and now it’s abortion.
0:39:10 But yeah, the numbers bear that out and also, like, CNN’s ratings, and I love a lot of the
0:39:15 people at CNN and I think there’s a lot of really good commentary, but they just don’t
0:39:19 get many viewers technically.
0:39:23 So the percentages of persuadables has to be even less, and obviously they’re going
0:39:28 through a bit of an identity crisis and I think they have some amazing people who are
0:39:32 now anchoring big shows like the Caitlyn Collins’s of the world and Abby Phillip.
0:39:38 But they’re searching for their base and Fox has a conservative base, but we also have
0:39:44 this persuadable base and they’re the people most apt to reach out to me, right?
0:39:49 It will say, you know, I may lean towards Jesse Waters’ perspective or Greg Gutfeld’s
0:39:54 perspective, these people on the five with me, but I really appreciate your fact-based
0:40:00 commentary or that you always come to represent the Democratic side in a reasonable way.
0:40:05 And that’s the key to all of this.
0:40:07 Just be reasonable.
0:40:08 You know, don’t be unhinged and right now the Republicans look unhinged.
0:40:12 So before we cut you loose here, just handicap or give us your best guess or prediction on
0:40:19 what you think going back to Trump happens with sentencing.
0:40:23 So I’m not a lawyer and it’s a tough one.
0:40:27 I’ve tried to ingest as much information about this as possible.
0:40:32 I do come down on the side of that there will be a recommendation for jail time, but I was
0:40:37 listening to Preet Bihar’s podcast and he had a really interesting suggestion for Alvin
0:40:43 Bragg, which was to show the judge how this particular crime had been sentenced the last
0:40:50 five years, for instance, to say, these are the sentences that have been given out before
0:40:54 and then to put it more in Judge Merchan’s court than to make the straight recommendation.
0:41:01 But I don’t expect any serving of time if he’s sentenced to jail and he’s elected.
0:41:09 And then certainly it would be after the election, they’re not going to stop him from running
0:41:13 his campaign, but I think it’s over 50% likelihood and a lot of people who work in the system
0:41:23 and know the players in this really well think that that is the expectation, which is absolutely
0:41:29 unbelievable.
0:41:30 If anything, the Fulton County case was going to be the jail case that we would be hearing
0:41:35 about, but we’re not even going to see that this year.
0:41:37 Sorry.
0:41:38 Well, it feels as if Trump is daring the judge to send him to prison, and I found that it’s
0:41:44 not typically a good strategy for convicted felons.
0:41:47 No, it’s not.
0:41:50 And I don’t think that he’s going to like the result of it.
0:41:53 I mean, it’s a famous germaphobe prison is not nice.
0:41:58 And if you get the best treatment, even if you’re at Danbury playing tennis a couple
0:42:04 times a day.
0:42:05 So I think that he needs to be really careful about what he wishes for and what he thinks
0:42:11 is going to become an electoral advantage.
0:42:13 They clearly think that there’s some possibility that he’s going to be a civil rights leader
0:42:20 in all of this.
0:42:21 And we could spend hours discussing how offensive it is that he thinks that black people are
0:42:26 going to like him more now that this has happened to him, but you know, be careful what you
0:42:32 wish for because the other side of it isn’t just like a night at home alone eating pizza.
0:42:37 It’s being in jail.
0:42:39 Jessica Tarlove is a co-host on the five Fox’s weeknight news program.
0:42:43 She also offers political analysis across the Fox News channel and Fox Business Networks
0:42:48 programming.
0:42:49 Jessica is also the vice president of research and consumer insight for Bustle Digital Group.
0:42:54 She joins us from her home in New York where she is enjoying her maternity leave and has
0:42:59 just welcomed a new seven week old girl.
0:43:02 Congratulations on everything.
0:43:03 Yeah.
0:43:04 Thank you so much.
0:43:05 And thanks for having me.
0:43:07 We’ll be right back.
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0:46:11 Algebra of Happiness.
0:46:12 I went to my first wedding in a long time a few years ago.
0:46:15 I remember I was, I’m now at the point where my friend’s kids are getting married, and
0:46:20 it took me back to this time when I was in my late 20s, early 30s, and your fellow,
0:46:24 you were going, you know, summer was like six weddings, and I had the privilege to give
0:46:30 a bunch of toast at a bunch of different weddings, and I revisited that toast.
0:46:34 And I think it holds the test of time.
0:46:36 And this is the advice I would give to the groom, and that is there are three keys to
0:46:42 a successful relationship.
0:46:44 The first is never let your spouse be hungry or cold.
0:46:48 And everyone would laugh at that and say, “Okay, that’s funny,” but I actually think
0:46:53 that’s true.
0:46:54 I do believe that there is a difference between the gender, and for some reason every woman
0:46:57 I’ve ever hung out with is impossibly cold all of the time, and that the majority of
0:47:03 really big fights when I look back on it, the individual was either very cold or very
0:47:09 hungry.
0:47:10 So, I literally used to have in my trunk a pashmina and protein bars and invest in
0:47:13 dual climate technology.
0:47:15 Never let someone you care about be hungry or cold.
0:47:19 Two, express physical and sexual desire as often as possible, and I know that sounds
0:47:27 very base, but I think the thing that distinguishes you from a friend is sex.
0:47:33 Sex says, “I choose you.”
0:47:36 And I think it is wonderful to be in a relationship with someone, and I encourage people, especially
0:47:41 as they, you know, some of that “lust” wanes, to every time you have physical desire, every
0:47:48 time you feel romantic, every time you want to express affection, which oftentimes I think
0:47:53 is more important than sex, that you do it, and that you have an inclination, especially
0:47:58 as a dude.
0:47:59 I think affection maybe doesn’t come as easily to us, to grab their hand, to express desire.
0:48:05 Like, I just don’t think there’s, let me get in more trouble.
0:48:08 I think women want to be wanted.
0:48:10 I think we all want to be wanted physically.
0:48:12 I think it makes us feel good.
0:48:14 You know, make that person know that you choose them.
0:48:17 You choose them physically, and that you want them.
0:48:20 And then finally, the third thing, put away the scorecard.
0:48:24 And this is the most important thing I have learned in any key relationship, and that
0:48:29 is your natural inclination will be to register the contribution and the reward you’re getting
0:48:35 from your partner, your colleague, your spouse, your boyfriend, you know, whatever it might
0:48:40 be, your coworker, your co-investor.
0:48:43 And here’s the problem.
0:48:45 Sometimes you will inflate your contribution and overlook or not notice their contributions
0:48:49 or minimize theirs.
0:48:51 And if you were stupid like me, you would inject anger and disappointment into the relationship
0:48:55 based on the fact that you didn’t think they were living up to their end of the bargain.
0:48:59 I’m not suggesting you let people walk all over you.
0:49:02 On a regular basis, I shed people, I shed friends.
0:49:06 If I’m not getting something from a relationship or someone I feel, especially professionally,
0:49:10 has not treated me well, I don’t get angry, I just cut them out of my life.
0:49:14 But for the most part, what I do in the majority of my relationships is I ask myself the following
0:49:18 thing.
0:49:20 What kind of son do I want to be?
0:49:22 I used to dwell on the fact that my father wasn’t very involved in my life growing up.
0:49:27 In my mom and dad got divorced and he immediately moved to Ohio.
0:49:31 And I think deep down, I’ve always held him responsible for that and I’ve always been
0:49:34 kind of angry at him and have questioned the extent to which I should be involved in his
0:49:40 life now.
0:49:42 And then I put that bullshit score card aside and I said, okay, what kind of son do I want
0:49:47 to be?
0:49:48 And this is the reality.
0:49:49 I want to be a loving and generous son.
0:49:52 That’s it.
0:49:53 That’s where it stops.
0:49:54 That’s the only question.
0:49:55 And so I try to be that.
0:49:56 I am a loving, generous son.
0:49:58 Am I there for him as much as I was there for my mom who woke me up or who every morning
0:50:03 with a soft voice or stayed up all night telling me math problems because I was so anxious
0:50:07 because I had these, these radically scary nosebleeds for some reason in my teen years.
0:50:13 No, I did make more of an effort with my mom, but, but I am a loving and generous son because
0:50:20 I’ve put the score card away.
0:50:21 Decide what kind of partner you want to be.
0:50:24 Decide what kind of spouse you want to be.
0:50:26 Decide what kind of girlfriend you want to be and just be that person.
0:50:30 Put away the score card.
0:50:32 Never let anyone be cold or hungry.
0:50:34 Express physical desire.
0:50:36 I want and I choose you and put away the scorecard.
0:50:42 This episode was produced by Caroline Shadron.
0:50:44 Jennifer Sanchez is our associate producer and Jew Burroughs is our technical director.
0:50:49 Thank you for listening to the PropG Pod from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
0:50:52 We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy, No Malice as read by George Hahn.
0:50:57 And please follow our PropG Markets Pod wherever you get your pods for new episodes every Monday
0:51:02 and Thursday.
0:51:03 Our PropG Markets Pod is already the number one pod in business in America.
Jessica Tarlov, a co-host on The Five, Fox’s weeknight news program, joins Scott to speak about Trump’s conviction and what it means for American politics. Follow Jessica on X, @JessicaTarlov.
Scott opens with his thoughts on New York’s potential legislation to protect minors from the harms of social media. He then gives a lesson on brand, specifically whether the WSJ’s rebranding campaign is a good idea.
Algebra of Happiness: a word of advice on relationships.
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