AI transcript
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0:01:14 NerdWallet, finance smarter.
0:01:19 NerdWallet Compare, Incorporated, NMLS 1617539.
0:01:24 Support for the show comes from FunRise.
0:01:27 The FunRise Innovation Fund is trying to change
0:01:29 the landscape for regular investors.
0:01:31 The Innovation Fund pairs a $100 million
0:01:33 plus venture portfolio of some of the biggest names in AI
0:01:34 with one of the lowest investment
0:01:36 minimums in the venture industry.
0:01:38 AI is already changing the world,
0:01:40 but this time you can get in early
0:01:41 with the FunRise Innovation Fund.
0:01:45 You can get in early at funrise.com/prophg.
0:01:47 Carefully consider the investment material before investing,
0:01:50 including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.
0:01:51 This and other information can be found
0:01:53 in the Innovation Fund’s prospectus
0:01:55 at funrise.com/innovation.
0:01:57 This is a paid advertisement.
0:02:06 I’m Scott Galloway, and this is No Mercy, No Malice.
0:02:09 Tesla’s Robotaxi event was a head fake
0:02:12 to justify a ridiculous valuation.
0:02:13 It didn’t work.
0:02:17 Tesla, what the fuck?
0:02:18 As read by George Hawn.
0:02:27 The most impressive and unimpressive product displays
0:02:30 of 2024 occurred last week,
0:02:34 from companies headed by the same person.
0:02:37 The largest booster rocket ever assembled
0:02:40 was called back to Terra by gravity.
0:02:42 Then, as it approached the Earth’s surface,
0:02:45 engines ignited that navigated the projectile
0:02:48 into a metal cradle.
0:02:51 SpaceX’s 20-story booster rocket catch
0:02:53 was nothing short of remarkable.
0:02:57 But four days before, analysts were summoned
0:03:01 to a product launch that essentially didn’t happen.
0:03:06 I know a woman who was engaged to a celebrity chef
0:03:08 who, after 300 guests had assembled
0:03:11 at a Caribbean resort, was a no-show,
0:03:13 no joke, at their wedding.
0:03:18 Tesla’s CyberCab was a no-show at its premiere.
0:03:20 Specifically, there were no details
0:03:23 that gave any analyst or onlooker much insight
0:03:25 into the product or any idea
0:03:26 when the rubber will meet the road.
0:03:30 Why was the CyberCab a no-show?
0:03:33 In the past two years, CEOs have added trillions
0:03:37 to their business’s valuations with two letters, AI.
0:03:42 Over the last decade, Tesla has sustained its position
0:03:45 as the world’s most valuable car company
0:03:49 with a one-word claim, autonomous.
0:03:52 Tesla’s WeRobot event was a head fake
0:03:54 that didn’t fool the market,
0:03:56 which promptly trimmed $60 billion
0:03:58 from the company’s market cap.
0:04:05 At its peak in 2019, WeWork was valued at $47 billion.
0:04:09 Four years later, the co-working company
0:04:13 was worth $44 million.
0:04:16 In between those two valuations,
0:04:19 investors rejected Adam Newman’s narrative
0:04:21 that the business was a tech company
0:04:24 and came to see WeWork for what it was,
0:04:27 a poorly run real estate play.
0:04:31 Tesla is a great company with positive cash flows.
0:04:33 However, like Adam Newman,
0:04:37 Musk keeps spewing adjectives and embellishments
0:04:38 that have worn thin.
0:04:45 In April, Tesla’s operating profit dropped 50%.
0:04:48 This should have sent the stock down,
0:04:52 but Musk pulled off another mid-air catch.
0:04:54 On the earnings call, he said, quote,
0:04:57 we should be thought of as an AI robotics company.
0:05:01 If you value Tesla as just an auto company,
0:05:05 it’s just the wrong framework, unquote.
0:05:06 Then he added, quote,
0:05:07 if somebody doesn’t believe
0:05:10 that Tesla is going to solve autonomy,
0:05:14 I think they should not be an investor in the company, unquote.
0:05:17 The stock rose 14%.
0:05:21 Spoiler alert, Tesla is a car company.
0:05:24 Automotive is Tesla’s core business,
0:05:28 accounting for 94% of last year’s revenue.
0:05:30 There is a dangerous belief in the US
0:05:33 that if you repeat a lie long enough,
0:05:35 it will become less of a lie.
0:05:37 The election wasn’t stolen
0:05:42 and Tesla is not a software/energy/AI/autonomous firm,
0:05:48 but a great car company that is wildly overvalued.
0:05:51 Note, not financial advice,
0:05:54 I consistently get it wrong on Tesla.
0:05:58 I used to own a Tesla Falcon Model X.
0:06:01 It’s a great car from a great brand.
0:06:02 Early adopters signaled to the world
0:06:06 that they cared about the environment and were rich,
0:06:08 which is a feature that commands margin,
0:06:11 being more desirable to potential mates
0:06:13 or less undesirable.
0:06:18 At the moment, however, hybrids appear to be the bridge
0:06:20 to a future thought to be electric.
0:06:23 Internal combustion autos still account
0:06:26 for 81% of new car sales in the US,
0:06:31 and hybrids are selling five times faster than EVs in 2024.
0:06:37 Range anxiety and charging concerns are limiting EV sales.
0:06:40 One consumer survey found that 80% of those
0:06:42 considering an EV for their next car
0:06:46 believe the current charging availability is insufficient,
0:06:49 while 70% of current EV owners
0:06:53 say they’re dissatisfied with the current infrastructure.
0:06:56 That’s bad news for the EV brand,
0:06:58 but potentially good news for Tesla
0:07:01 as its charging infrastructure is excellent.
0:07:05 However, Musk’s plan to make Tesla charging
0:07:08 the industry standard and open its charging stations
0:07:11 to all EVs have not materialized.
0:07:15 Another significant factor is price,
0:07:20 as hybrids in the US on average cost $14,884 less than EVs.
0:07:27 As EVs attempt to expand beyond early adopters
0:07:31 to the mass market, price becomes more important
0:07:35 as the middle of the pyramid is much more price conscious.
0:07:37 For the first time since the pandemic,
0:07:42 Tesla saw its sales drop 13% in the first quarter
0:07:45 and 9% in the second.
0:07:48 Sales rebounded 9% in the third quarter,
0:07:50 but the news across the EV sector
0:07:53 suggests the category is slowing.
0:07:57 Ford is scaling back its EV rollout.
0:07:59 General Motors is delaying its electric truck
0:08:03 and reducing investments in EV battery mining.
0:08:08 Volvo is walking back its 2030 all-electric target.
0:08:12 The EV revolution isn’t over,
0:08:17 but Toyota CEO Akio Toyota was right about its pace.
0:08:21 Toyota bet on hybrids and this year,
0:08:26 that paid off with a 66% jump in US hybrid sales.
0:08:33 In China though, EVs will account for 45%
0:08:35 of new car sales this year.
0:08:40 A growing EV pie is good news for a pure play EV company,
0:08:45 but BYD, the number one Chinese EV manufacturer,
0:08:49 offers cars at considerably lower prices than Tesla.
0:08:54 The BYD Seagull sells for $9,700
0:08:59 and the Yuan Plus costs $16,600.
0:09:03 A Tesla Model 3 starts at $34,000
0:09:06 and the Model Y costs $37,000.
0:09:12 China also has 200 domestic EV manufacturers
0:09:15 fighting for the EV Iron Throne.
0:09:18 The CCP has made clear that it intends
0:09:21 to win the EV future via competition.
0:09:26 The main attraction at Tesla’s WeRobot event
0:09:29 was supposed to be the CyberCab,
0:09:31 a two-seat fully autonomous vehicle
0:09:34 that’s long been central to justifying Tesla’s
0:09:36 gravity-defying valuation.
0:09:39 Unlike the Cybertruck, which looks like John DeLorean
0:09:41 dropped acid with Homer Simpson
0:09:44 and designed a life-size version of the vehicle
0:09:48 from the ’80s arcade game Moon Patrol, Google it,
0:09:51 the CyberCab actually looks cool.
0:09:54 Supposedly it’ll enter production by 2026
0:09:59 or as Musk jokes, quote unquote, before 2027.
0:10:03 The CyberCab will sell for under $30,000,
0:10:05 but Musk didn’t offer any details
0:10:08 as financials are a buzzkill.
0:10:12 Also, we have no idea whether the self-driving technology
0:10:15 will meet regulatory safety standards.
0:10:17 Recently, there was news that
0:10:19 the main US auto safety regulator said
0:10:23 it was investigating Tesla’s self-driving system.
0:10:27 Latin for, this tech is not ready for prime time.
0:10:30 But don’t worry, for the past decade,
0:10:33 Musk has been predicting that autonomous driving
0:10:35 is just around the corner.
0:10:38 Meanwhile, back on earth,
0:10:42 Tesla has only achieved level two autonomy.
0:10:45 A driver is still required.
0:10:47 The Waymo self-driving taxi,
0:10:50 which looks like a science fair project,
0:10:54 has level four autonomy, no driver needed,
0:10:58 and is already providing 100,000 paid rides per week
0:11:02 in Austin, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco.
0:11:06 Unlike Tesla, which is trying to go vertical,
0:11:11 Waymo wants to be the OS for autonomous driving.
0:11:13 The company is working with multiple auto manufacturers,
0:11:17 including Fiat Chrysler, Hyundai, and Volvo.
0:11:19 My prediction?
0:11:21 Waymo’s tech, coupled with several brands
0:11:24 at different price points, will bring autonomous
0:11:27 to the masses, not Tesla.
0:11:31 In LA last week, I experienced my first Waymo ride.
0:11:35 It drives just how I’m hoping my 17-year-old drives.
0:11:37 Overly cautious.
0:11:41 However, when we encountered an accident with flares,
0:11:43 cones, and a cop with a luminant baton
0:11:45 redirecting traffic into the wrong side of the road
0:11:49 to pass the damaged vehicle, Waymo was intimidated.
0:11:54 But it figured it out, which I found remarkable.
0:11:58 The millions of unexpected data points collected,
0:12:02 digested, and then acted on, is staggering.
0:12:07 Musk believes the cyber cab is going to usher in
0:12:10 a quote-unquote glorious future.
0:12:14 Maybe his claim that entrepreneurs will manage
0:12:18 a cyber cab fleet, like a shepherd tends their flock,
0:12:20 will become a reality.
0:12:23 Maybe a future where cyber cabs are constantly on the move
0:12:27 will enable city planners to turn parking lots into parks.
0:12:31 If that day comes, maybe Kathy Woods,
0:12:34 who believes Tesla will create $8 trillion
0:12:38 in enterprise value by 2029 as a robo-taxi business,
0:12:41 will look like Warren Buffett.
0:12:43 But at the moment, she appears to be the Tesla
0:12:47 of hedge fund managers, over-promising and under-delivering
0:12:49 with inane hyperbole.
0:12:56 My pivot co-host, Cara Swisher, called the Tesla robo-van
0:13:00 a quote, “toaster on wheels,” unquote.
0:13:02 But Cara also drives a Kia Sorento,
0:13:05 which puts an asterisk next to any view
0:13:07 she might have on cars.
0:13:11 My take, despite Musk insisting that they will build it,
0:13:14 the robo-van is a concept car that has almost
0:13:17 no chance of ever being street legal.
0:13:21 And Tesla knows this, but Autonomous was a no-show
0:13:25 at the wedding, and the bride, Musk, needed something
0:13:27 to get everyone to look away from the embarrassing situation
0:13:28 in front of them.
0:13:32 Peter Drucker advised business leaders
0:13:36 to focus on your opportunities, not your problems.
0:13:38 And Musk is doing this.
0:13:43 SpaceX is ascending, Tesla is falling to earth.
0:13:47 This was obvious at the event, as Musk seemed unrehearsed,
0:13:50 confused, and stumbled over his words.
0:13:53 By the way, the most impressive person in tech
0:13:57 you’ve likely never heard of is Gwynne Shotwell,
0:13:59 COO of SpaceX.
0:14:05 Musk pitched the Optimus robot as a personal R2-D2
0:14:09 or C3PO that can be a teacher, babysitter, dog walker,
0:14:13 gardener, or companion, quote, “Whatever you can think of,
0:14:15 “it will do,” unquote.
0:14:18 Well, I can think of it actually being a robot
0:14:20 that has autonomous capabilities.
0:14:24 At the event, Optimus robots served as bartenders
0:14:27 and chatted with the crowd, which sounds amazing
0:14:29 until you realize that they were controlled
0:14:30 by human operators.
0:14:33 Supposedly, the robots will cost
0:14:36 somewhere between $20,000 and $30,000,
0:14:39 human operator not included.
0:14:44 That’s $12,000 less than a new Tesla Model 3.
0:14:48 But a Tesla is a product that solves a real problem,
0:14:50 offering personal transportation
0:14:52 without burning fossil fuel.
0:14:55 Even if Optimus could do half the things
0:14:58 Musk claims it can, who’s gonna buy one?
0:15:01 Tesla can’t answer that question,
0:15:04 but neither can Boston Dynamics.
0:15:07 Their Atlas robot requires human oversight
0:15:09 just like Optimus.
0:15:11 But after more than a decade of R&D
0:15:14 and support from the Defense Department’s DARPA program,
0:15:17 Boston Dynamics still doesn’t have
0:15:19 a commercial strategy for Atlas,
0:15:23 though it has produced some great YouTube videos.
0:15:26 This entire category defines the concept
0:15:29 of a technology in search of a use case.
0:15:33 However, while it may never be able to watch your kids,
0:15:36 Optimus did provide a purposeful distraction
0:15:39 from the introduction of a product that is not ready
0:15:42 and, once ready, will be inferior
0:15:45 to products already in the market.
0:15:49 Entrepreneur is a synonym for salesperson,
0:15:54 and salesperson is the pedestrian term for storyteller.
0:15:58 Pro tip, no startup makes sense.
0:16:01 We, entrepreneurs, are all imposters
0:16:04 who must deploy a fiction, a story,
0:16:07 that captures the imagination and attracts capital
0:16:11 to pull the future forward and turn rhyme into reason.
0:16:16 No business I have started at the moment of inception
0:16:20 made any sense, until it did, or didn’t.
0:16:25 The only way to predict the future is to make it.
0:16:28 This is not the same as lying.
0:16:30 There’s a real distinction between
0:16:32 an entrepreneur and a liar.
0:16:36 Entrepreneurs believe their story will come true
0:16:39 as they are laser focused on making it true.
0:16:42 A liar, well, they know they’re misleading people
0:16:47 with false data, usually for money, i.e. fraud.
0:16:50 This is where Tesla turns gray.
0:16:51 Here’s what I see.
0:16:55 In 2015, Tesla was two years away
0:16:57 from a 1,000 kilometer range.
0:17:00 A decade later, it’s closer to 600 kilometers.
0:17:05 In 2016, coast-to-coast autonomous driving
0:17:07 was two years away.
0:17:10 In 2019, Tesla said it would have
0:17:13 one million self-driving cars
0:17:15 that wouldn’t require any human oversight
0:17:18 on the road by mid-2020.
0:17:23 Also in 2019, robo-taxis were one year away
0:17:26 until last week, when we were told robo-taxis
0:17:28 were two years away.
0:17:33 I believe this is the year the market looks at Tesla
0:17:35 and sees what I see.
0:17:39 A great car company that is a car company.
0:17:45 Life is so rich.
0:17:59 Cloud database ops can be tricky.
0:18:01 Several nines makes it easy.
0:18:03 Pioneered by several nines,
0:18:05 the sovereign debas concept is a new way
0:18:08 for corporations with multiple business requirements
0:18:11 and to deploy their workloads in mixed environments
0:18:14 to exert more control over their data stacks.
0:18:17 It enables IT ops teams the ability to deploy
0:18:20 and orchestrate databases in all environments,
0:18:22 removing lock-in risks and giving their organizations
0:18:25 the orchestration benefits at scale
0:18:28 that they used to get from traditional debats,
0:18:31 but without its portability and access trade-offs.
0:18:36 Learn more at severalnines.com/vox.
0:18:38 (upbeat music)
0:00:04 Support for this show comes from Constant Contact.
0:00:07 If you struggle just to get your customers to notice you,
0:00:10 Constant Contact has what you need to grab their attention.
0:00:14 Constant Contact’s award-winning marketing platform
0:00:17 offers all the automation, integration, and reporting tools
0:00:20 that get your marketing running seamlessly,
0:00:23 all backed by their expert live customer support.
0:00:25 It’s time to get going and growing
0:00:28 with Constant Contact today.
0:00:30 Ready, set, grow.
0:00:34 Go to ConstantContact.ca and start your free trial today.
0:00:39 Go to ConstantContact.ca for your free trial,
0:00:41 ConstantContact.ca.
0:00:46 Support for Proficy comes from NerdWallet.
0:00:49 Starting your credit card search with NerdWallet, smart.
0:00:50 Using their tools to finally find the card
0:00:52 that works for you, even smarter,
0:00:55 you can filter for the features you care about.
0:00:58 Access the latest deals and add your top cards
0:01:00 to a comparison table to make smarter decisions.
0:01:03 And it’s all powered by the nerd’s expert reviews
0:01:05 of over 400 credit cards.
0:01:08 Head over to nerdwallet.com/learnmore
0:01:10 to find smarter credit card savings accounts,
0:01:12 mortgage rates, and more.
0:01:14 NerdWallet, finance smarter.
0:01:19 NerdWallet Compare, Incorporated, NMLS 1617539.
0:01:24 Support for the show comes from FunRise.
0:01:27 The FunRise Innovation Fund is trying to change
0:01:29 the landscape for regular investors.
0:01:31 The Innovation Fund pairs a $100 million
0:01:33 plus venture portfolio of some of the biggest names in AI
0:01:34 with one of the lowest investment
0:01:36 minimums in the venture industry.
0:01:38 AI is already changing the world,
0:01:40 but this time you can get in early
0:01:41 with the FunRise Innovation Fund.
0:01:45 You can get in early at funrise.com/prophg.
0:01:47 Carefully consider the investment material before investing,
0:01:50 including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.
0:01:51 This and other information can be found
0:01:53 in the Innovation Fund’s prospectus
0:01:55 at funrise.com/innovation.
0:01:57 This is a paid advertisement.
0:02:06 I’m Scott Galloway, and this is No Mercy, No Malice.
0:02:09 Tesla’s Robotaxi event was a head fake
0:02:12 to justify a ridiculous valuation.
0:02:13 It didn’t work.
0:02:17 Tesla, what the fuck?
0:02:18 As read by George Hawn.
0:02:27 The most impressive and unimpressive product displays
0:02:30 of 2024 occurred last week,
0:02:34 from companies headed by the same person.
0:02:37 The largest booster rocket ever assembled
0:02:40 was called back to Terra by gravity.
0:02:42 Then, as it approached the Earth’s surface,
0:02:45 engines ignited that navigated the projectile
0:02:48 into a metal cradle.
0:02:51 SpaceX’s 20-story booster rocket catch
0:02:53 was nothing short of remarkable.
0:02:57 But four days before, analysts were summoned
0:03:01 to a product launch that essentially didn’t happen.
0:03:06 I know a woman who was engaged to a celebrity chef
0:03:08 who, after 300 guests had assembled
0:03:11 at a Caribbean resort, was a no-show,
0:03:13 no joke, at their wedding.
0:03:18 Tesla’s CyberCab was a no-show at its premiere.
0:03:20 Specifically, there were no details
0:03:23 that gave any analyst or onlooker much insight
0:03:25 into the product or any idea
0:03:26 when the rubber will meet the road.
0:03:30 Why was the CyberCab a no-show?
0:03:33 In the past two years, CEOs have added trillions
0:03:37 to their business’s valuations with two letters, AI.
0:03:42 Over the last decade, Tesla has sustained its position
0:03:45 as the world’s most valuable car company
0:03:49 with a one-word claim, autonomous.
0:03:52 Tesla’s WeRobot event was a head fake
0:03:54 that didn’t fool the market,
0:03:56 which promptly trimmed $60 billion
0:03:58 from the company’s market cap.
0:04:05 At its peak in 2019, WeWork was valued at $47 billion.
0:04:09 Four years later, the co-working company
0:04:13 was worth $44 million.
0:04:16 In between those two valuations,
0:04:19 investors rejected Adam Newman’s narrative
0:04:21 that the business was a tech company
0:04:24 and came to see WeWork for what it was,
0:04:27 a poorly run real estate play.
0:04:31 Tesla is a great company with positive cash flows.
0:04:33 However, like Adam Newman,
0:04:37 Musk keeps spewing adjectives and embellishments
0:04:38 that have worn thin.
0:04:45 In April, Tesla’s operating profit dropped 50%.
0:04:48 This should have sent the stock down,
0:04:52 but Musk pulled off another mid-air catch.
0:04:54 On the earnings call, he said, quote,
0:04:57 we should be thought of as an AI robotics company.
0:05:01 If you value Tesla as just an auto company,
0:05:05 it’s just the wrong framework, unquote.
0:05:06 Then he added, quote,
0:05:07 if somebody doesn’t believe
0:05:10 that Tesla is going to solve autonomy,
0:05:14 I think they should not be an investor in the company, unquote.
0:05:17 The stock rose 14%.
0:05:21 Spoiler alert, Tesla is a car company.
0:05:24 Automotive is Tesla’s core business,
0:05:28 accounting for 94% of last year’s revenue.
0:05:30 There is a dangerous belief in the US
0:05:33 that if you repeat a lie long enough,
0:05:35 it will become less of a lie.
0:05:37 The election wasn’t stolen
0:05:42 and Tesla is not a software/energy/AI/autonomous firm,
0:05:48 but a great car company that is wildly overvalued.
0:05:51 Note, not financial advice,
0:05:54 I consistently get it wrong on Tesla.
0:05:58 I used to own a Tesla Falcon Model X.
0:06:01 It’s a great car from a great brand.
0:06:02 Early adopters signaled to the world
0:06:06 that they cared about the environment and were rich,
0:06:08 which is a feature that commands margin,
0:06:11 being more desirable to potential mates
0:06:13 or less undesirable.
0:06:18 At the moment, however, hybrids appear to be the bridge
0:06:20 to a future thought to be electric.
0:06:23 Internal combustion autos still account
0:06:26 for 81% of new car sales in the US,
0:06:31 and hybrids are selling five times faster than EVs in 2024.
0:06:37 Range anxiety and charging concerns are limiting EV sales.
0:06:40 One consumer survey found that 80% of those
0:06:42 considering an EV for their next car
0:06:46 believe the current charging availability is insufficient,
0:06:49 while 70% of current EV owners
0:06:53 say they’re dissatisfied with the current infrastructure.
0:06:56 That’s bad news for the EV brand,
0:06:58 but potentially good news for Tesla
0:07:01 as its charging infrastructure is excellent.
0:07:05 However, Musk’s plan to make Tesla charging
0:07:08 the industry standard and open its charging stations
0:07:11 to all EVs have not materialized.
0:07:15 Another significant factor is price,
0:07:20 as hybrids in the US on average cost $14,884 less than EVs.
0:07:27 As EVs attempt to expand beyond early adopters
0:07:31 to the mass market, price becomes more important
0:07:35 as the middle of the pyramid is much more price conscious.
0:07:37 For the first time since the pandemic,
0:07:42 Tesla saw its sales drop 13% in the first quarter
0:07:45 and 9% in the second.
0:07:48 Sales rebounded 9% in the third quarter,
0:07:50 but the news across the EV sector
0:07:53 suggests the category is slowing.
0:07:57 Ford is scaling back its EV rollout.
0:07:59 General Motors is delaying its electric truck
0:08:03 and reducing investments in EV battery mining.
0:08:08 Volvo is walking back its 2030 all-electric target.
0:08:12 The EV revolution isn’t over,
0:08:17 but Toyota CEO Akio Toyota was right about its pace.
0:08:21 Toyota bet on hybrids and this year,
0:08:26 that paid off with a 66% jump in US hybrid sales.
0:08:33 In China though, EVs will account for 45%
0:08:35 of new car sales this year.
0:08:40 A growing EV pie is good news for a pure play EV company,
0:08:45 but BYD, the number one Chinese EV manufacturer,
0:08:49 offers cars at considerably lower prices than Tesla.
0:08:54 The BYD Seagull sells for $9,700
0:08:59 and the Yuan Plus costs $16,600.
0:09:03 A Tesla Model 3 starts at $34,000
0:09:06 and the Model Y costs $37,000.
0:09:12 China also has 200 domestic EV manufacturers
0:09:15 fighting for the EV Iron Throne.
0:09:18 The CCP has made clear that it intends
0:09:21 to win the EV future via competition.
0:09:26 The main attraction at Tesla’s WeRobot event
0:09:29 was supposed to be the CyberCab,
0:09:31 a two-seat fully autonomous vehicle
0:09:34 that’s long been central to justifying Tesla’s
0:09:36 gravity-defying valuation.
0:09:39 Unlike the Cybertruck, which looks like John DeLorean
0:09:41 dropped acid with Homer Simpson
0:09:44 and designed a life-size version of the vehicle
0:09:48 from the ’80s arcade game Moon Patrol, Google it,
0:09:51 the CyberCab actually looks cool.
0:09:54 Supposedly it’ll enter production by 2026
0:09:59 or as Musk jokes, quote unquote, before 2027.
0:10:03 The CyberCab will sell for under $30,000,
0:10:05 but Musk didn’t offer any details
0:10:08 as financials are a buzzkill.
0:10:12 Also, we have no idea whether the self-driving technology
0:10:15 will meet regulatory safety standards.
0:10:17 Recently, there was news that
0:10:19 the main US auto safety regulator said
0:10:23 it was investigating Tesla’s self-driving system.
0:10:27 Latin for, this tech is not ready for prime time.
0:10:30 But don’t worry, for the past decade,
0:10:33 Musk has been predicting that autonomous driving
0:10:35 is just around the corner.
0:10:38 Meanwhile, back on earth,
0:10:42 Tesla has only achieved level two autonomy.
0:10:45 A driver is still required.
0:10:47 The Waymo self-driving taxi,
0:10:50 which looks like a science fair project,
0:10:54 has level four autonomy, no driver needed,
0:10:58 and is already providing 100,000 paid rides per week
0:11:02 in Austin, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco.
0:11:06 Unlike Tesla, which is trying to go vertical,
0:11:11 Waymo wants to be the OS for autonomous driving.
0:11:13 The company is working with multiple auto manufacturers,
0:11:17 including Fiat Chrysler, Hyundai, and Volvo.
0:11:19 My prediction?
0:11:21 Waymo’s tech, coupled with several brands
0:11:24 at different price points, will bring autonomous
0:11:27 to the masses, not Tesla.
0:11:31 In LA last week, I experienced my first Waymo ride.
0:11:35 It drives just how I’m hoping my 17-year-old drives.
0:11:37 Overly cautious.
0:11:41 However, when we encountered an accident with flares,
0:11:43 cones, and a cop with a luminant baton
0:11:45 redirecting traffic into the wrong side of the road
0:11:49 to pass the damaged vehicle, Waymo was intimidated.
0:11:54 But it figured it out, which I found remarkable.
0:11:58 The millions of unexpected data points collected,
0:12:02 digested, and then acted on, is staggering.
0:12:07 Musk believes the cyber cab is going to usher in
0:12:10 a quote-unquote glorious future.
0:12:14 Maybe his claim that entrepreneurs will manage
0:12:18 a cyber cab fleet, like a shepherd tends their flock,
0:12:20 will become a reality.
0:12:23 Maybe a future where cyber cabs are constantly on the move
0:12:27 will enable city planners to turn parking lots into parks.
0:12:31 If that day comes, maybe Kathy Woods,
0:12:34 who believes Tesla will create $8 trillion
0:12:38 in enterprise value by 2029 as a robo-taxi business,
0:12:41 will look like Warren Buffett.
0:12:43 But at the moment, she appears to be the Tesla
0:12:47 of hedge fund managers, over-promising and under-delivering
0:12:49 with inane hyperbole.
0:12:56 My pivot co-host, Cara Swisher, called the Tesla robo-van
0:13:00 a quote, “toaster on wheels,” unquote.
0:13:02 But Cara also drives a Kia Sorento,
0:13:05 which puts an asterisk next to any view
0:13:07 she might have on cars.
0:13:11 My take, despite Musk insisting that they will build it,
0:13:14 the robo-van is a concept car that has almost
0:13:17 no chance of ever being street legal.
0:13:21 And Tesla knows this, but Autonomous was a no-show
0:13:25 at the wedding, and the bride, Musk, needed something
0:13:27 to get everyone to look away from the embarrassing situation
0:13:28 in front of them.
0:13:32 Peter Drucker advised business leaders
0:13:36 to focus on your opportunities, not your problems.
0:13:38 And Musk is doing this.
0:13:43 SpaceX is ascending, Tesla is falling to earth.
0:13:47 This was obvious at the event, as Musk seemed unrehearsed,
0:13:50 confused, and stumbled over his words.
0:13:53 By the way, the most impressive person in tech
0:13:57 you’ve likely never heard of is Gwynne Shotwell,
0:13:59 COO of SpaceX.
0:14:05 Musk pitched the Optimus robot as a personal R2-D2
0:14:09 or C3PO that can be a teacher, babysitter, dog walker,
0:14:13 gardener, or companion, quote, “Whatever you can think of,
0:14:15 “it will do,” unquote.
0:14:18 Well, I can think of it actually being a robot
0:14:20 that has autonomous capabilities.
0:14:24 At the event, Optimus robots served as bartenders
0:14:27 and chatted with the crowd, which sounds amazing
0:14:29 until you realize that they were controlled
0:14:30 by human operators.
0:14:33 Supposedly, the robots will cost
0:14:36 somewhere between $20,000 and $30,000,
0:14:39 human operator not included.
0:14:44 That’s $12,000 less than a new Tesla Model 3.
0:14:48 But a Tesla is a product that solves a real problem,
0:14:50 offering personal transportation
0:14:52 without burning fossil fuel.
0:14:55 Even if Optimus could do half the things
0:14:58 Musk claims it can, who’s gonna buy one?
0:15:01 Tesla can’t answer that question,
0:15:04 but neither can Boston Dynamics.
0:15:07 Their Atlas robot requires human oversight
0:15:09 just like Optimus.
0:15:11 But after more than a decade of R&D
0:15:14 and support from the Defense Department’s DARPA program,
0:15:17 Boston Dynamics still doesn’t have
0:15:19 a commercial strategy for Atlas,
0:15:23 though it has produced some great YouTube videos.
0:15:26 This entire category defines the concept
0:15:29 of a technology in search of a use case.
0:15:33 However, while it may never be able to watch your kids,
0:15:36 Optimus did provide a purposeful distraction
0:15:39 from the introduction of a product that is not ready
0:15:42 and, once ready, will be inferior
0:15:45 to products already in the market.
0:15:49 Entrepreneur is a synonym for salesperson,
0:15:54 and salesperson is the pedestrian term for storyteller.
0:15:58 Pro tip, no startup makes sense.
0:16:01 We, entrepreneurs, are all imposters
0:16:04 who must deploy a fiction, a story,
0:16:07 that captures the imagination and attracts capital
0:16:11 to pull the future forward and turn rhyme into reason.
0:16:16 No business I have started at the moment of inception
0:16:20 made any sense, until it did, or didn’t.
0:16:25 The only way to predict the future is to make it.
0:16:28 This is not the same as lying.
0:16:30 There’s a real distinction between
0:16:32 an entrepreneur and a liar.
0:16:36 Entrepreneurs believe their story will come true
0:16:39 as they are laser focused on making it true.
0:16:42 A liar, well, they know they’re misleading people
0:16:47 with false data, usually for money, i.e. fraud.
0:16:50 This is where Tesla turns gray.
0:16:51 Here’s what I see.
0:16:55 In 2015, Tesla was two years away
0:16:57 from a 1,000 kilometer range.
0:17:00 A decade later, it’s closer to 600 kilometers.
0:17:05 In 2016, coast-to-coast autonomous driving
0:17:07 was two years away.
0:17:10 In 2019, Tesla said it would have
0:17:13 one million self-driving cars
0:17:15 that wouldn’t require any human oversight
0:17:18 on the road by mid-2020.
0:17:23 Also in 2019, robo-taxis were one year away
0:17:26 until last week, when we were told robo-taxis
0:17:28 were two years away.
0:17:33 I believe this is the year the market looks at Tesla
0:17:35 and sees what I see.
0:17:39 A great car company that is a car company.
0:17:45 Life is so rich.
0:17:59 Cloud database ops can be tricky.
0:18:01 Several nines makes it easy.
0:18:03 Pioneered by several nines,
0:18:05 the sovereign debas concept is a new way
0:18:08 for corporations with multiple business requirements
0:18:11 and to deploy their workloads in mixed environments
0:18:14 to exert more control over their data stacks.
0:18:17 It enables IT ops teams the ability to deploy
0:18:20 and orchestrate databases in all environments,
0:18:22 removing lock-in risks and giving their organizations
0:18:25 the orchestration benefits at scale
0:18:28 that they used to get from traditional debats,
0:18:31 but without its portability and access trade-offs.
0:18:36 Learn more at severalnines.com/vox.
0:18:38 (upbeat music)
As read by George Hahn.
Tesla WTF
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