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– Welcome to Raging Moderates, I’m Scott Galloway.
– And I’m Jessica Tarla.
And you are literally the recipient
of the biggest puff piece I have ever seen.
For our listeners that don’t subscribe to The New York Times
or haven’t seen it in your social media feed,
according to The New York Times,
Jess is the person on Fox that people love to hate,
but they can’t help loving.
I have never seen-
– Show me the lies, Scott Galloway.
– I read, I like you and I wanted to scroll up in my mouth.
Jesus Christ, it was even the pictures were fantastic.
You, I imagine if, I mean, granted,
you’re not as self-absorbed as I am,
or at least I don’t think you are.
I would have just-
– Trying to avoid it, yeah.
– I would have just wallpapered my house in that article.
Oh my gosh, you must feel great.
– It’s pretty good.
This, my liberal heart was warmed, let’s say.
– Oh my goodness.
– And there’s always these moments
that break through out of the Fox orbit,
where my actual life knows what I do for a living
and kind of can see it.
So my text messages, just full of like parents
and grandparents of people that I know,
that are like, oh my God, you’re alive
and you’re doing this cool thing.
No, it was fabulous.
They did a, it was a very generous article for sure,
but I liked how much they captured about my background
and also what I’m doing at Fox.
And they had great quotes from my colleagues.
I have zero complaints and you told me
I would have a complaint and I don’t.
I got the puff piece of the century.
– Yeah, I was just, I was, I knew it would be good.
I knew it would be positive,
but any kind of, almost any,
any, especially in New York times,
feels like they gotta find a couple people
to say bad things about you.
And they clearly couldn’t find anyone.
– But I’m not a white man.
So I feel like I had that going in my favor.
– Yeah, I was.
I read it and I kept waiting for,
you know, the line saying some people she’s,
some people say she’s whatever to, you know,
or she gets a pass because it never came.
It was just talking to all these Republicans who love you
and all these Democrats who adore you.
Anyways, congratulations.
That’s, that was really nice.
– It was very cool.
– A nice moment for you.
So today we’re going to be talking
about the final week of the campaign,
John Kelly’s warning about Trump’s fascist behavior
and the down ball of races that we have our eyes on.
All right, so we are down to the final week.
Thank God.
Kamala Harris is pulling in A-list names
to get voters fired up.
Beyonce, Eminem wasn’t, I didn’t see that one coming.
Bruce Springsteen, Spike Lee,
Samuel Jackson, just to name a few.
Hillary Clinton did something similar back in 2016,
but Harris’s approach has been different.
She’s been calling herself the underdog all along,
whereas Clinton’s campaign carried
an expectation of victory.
The rally in Houston with Beyonce was her largest yet.
Let’s listen to a clip.
– We are at the precipice of an incredible shift,
the brink of history.
I’m not here as a celebrity.
I’m not here as a politician.
I’m here as a mother.
A mother who cares deeply about the world,
my children and all of our children living.
A world where we have the freedom to control our bodies.
A world where we’re not divided.
Our past, our present, our future,
merge to meet us here.
– This in the clip that is really making the rounds
and I would argue has been more powerful
as the clip of Michelle Obama,
or first lady, former first lady, Michelle Obama.
What are your thoughts going into the last week here?
Give us your state of play around the race, Jess.
– So I’m actually not having a huge anxiety day.
So you caught me at a good moment
where I’m pretty optimistic about–
– So Xanax.
Xanax for precipice.
– I’m heavily drugged actually to get through this
just casually on a Monday.
So I’ve been trying to look at the actual data
versus the vibes and it’s interesting
because it’s the inverse of how we started out.
Remember that this was the vibes campaign, right?
We were all coconut-pilled.
Charlie XCX gave us Brat Summer
and everyone was riding high
on the fact that we felt like we had a chance.
And now we have a lot of information
from the ground of what’s going on
and Jenna Malley-Dell and the campaign manager
for Kamala’s campaign was on with Jen Psaki on Sunday.
And she said we knocked on 1.2 million doors
in battleground states on Saturday alone.
That is mind blowing.
How many people are out doing this?
And there are the Christine Baranskis of the world
who are showing up in people’s doors
and Bradley Whitford and all of that is great.
But there are just regular people
that are out there jazzed to be doing this
and there are Democrats doing it
and Republicans doing it.
And that’s giving me a lot of hope.
There was a pullout that was really positive
but I wanted to ask you about Beyonce,
I wish she had performed, that’s always the downer in this.
And of course you had 30,000 people
because people thought they were going to a Beyonce concert.
And I thought she was powerful and great
and revealed herself to have political messaging
that maybe we didn’t think that she had and I loved it.
But there was something that Michelle Obama said
that I feel like you probably wouldn’t have loved.
So the clip circulating about what the implications
of the Dove’s decision have obviously incredible
but she says to men that they need to take the lives
of the women, the lives of the women in their lives,
she said it more articulately than I did, seriously.
And it was in the same vein as when Obama kind of scolded
black men in Pennsylvania before he did his first big rally
for the campaign a few weeks back
when they got a lot of criticism for,
what did you make of that part of Michelle’s messaging?
– Oh, I absolutely loved it.
– You did, okay.
– Yeah, I’ve been thinking a lot about,
I’m writing a book on masculinity
and I’ve been thinking a lot about
what is an aspirational modern form of masculinity
and these words that come back to provider protector
and procreator when I think of protector,
I think, okay, at some point in your life,
first degree, second degree,
there’s going to be someone in your life
with an unplanned pregnancy.
And the notion that you don’t immediately go to protection
and think, all right, I want people in my life
to have options, ’cause the most mendacious thing
about this bodily autonomy argument
is that if you wanted to ensure it was rejected
and women had bodily autonomy,
all you would need to do is ensure
that the rule was absolute.
Because wealthy Americans and including wealthy Republicans
kind of know that if something,
if an unplanned pregnancy happens to them
or their niece or their daughter, they’ll figure it out.
Wealthy people will figure it out.
And that’s the most mendacious thing about this.
So this is really a war on poor women quite frankly,
poor families, 17 year old black woman who becomes pregnant
doesn’t have a lot of education, single parent,
maybe hides the pregnancy, doesn’t have resources,
can’t be shipped to Atlanta for to terminate the pregnancy,
doesn’t have access to medical abortion.
And her message was, if you’re a man, how I read it,
your job is to protect people,
maybe not even in your direct sphere.
That’s your job as a man.
You’re supposed to protect women.
And if you look at why women generally speaking,
and this is gonna sound sexist,
but there’s research to show this,
why they’re attracted to men
or one of the features they’re attracted to
is they want a man who physically, intellectually,
and financially gives them the impression
that when shit gets real, that man can protect them.
And this seems just at the very core of that.
The dude, yeah, think about your own economic well-being,
but your instinct, your muscle memory should be to protect.
And this is, you’re not protecting us right now.
By not showing up and pushing back on this,
you are not protecting us.
I thought that was the most powerful part of her speech.
– When I first heard it, I thought, yeah, exactly.
Especially having gone through two pregnancies recently
and given birth, it’s one of the most fragile
and frightening things you can do.
And you’re one step away from a medical emergency
for nine, 10 months straight.
And it is a miracle every time
that one of these babies is delivered safely
and that the mom is good and that the baby is good.
So I totally get that.
I just, I took a step back because we’re focused on getting
men to support the Democratic Party
in this last hustle here.
And I wondered about that kind of 28-year-old guy
who feels like the Democratic Party isn’t interested in him
or the 35-year-old guy or the 42,
whatever up to through Gen X,
like the Gen Zs and millennials.
And I didn’t know how that would sit with them.
I hope that they heard it the way that you did
because that’s how I did,
but I feel like I’m sometimes so clouded
by my own estrogen that perhaps I can’t see it clearly
anymore.
– Well, just the idea,
and I think it’s important to remind young men of this,
your ability to be a provider,
you wanna be impoverished for the rest of your life,
be the father of an unwanted pregnancy at a young age.
– Yeah.
– I mean, this affects you too,
just being selfish if you’re a young man.
One, you’re gonna have less sex
and less bodily autonomy is restored.
Think about the reason why, I mean, essentially,
men wanna spread their seed to the four corners of the earth
and women put up a much finer filter
to try and attract the smartest, strongest and fastest seed.
And I know that sounds reductive and crude,
but I have evidence to prove this.
And because of the downside of pregnancy
is so much greater for women than for men,
women are more selective when it comes
to random sexual encounters.
And if you ask young men,
would you rather have more or less random sexual encounters
that might turn into a relationship,
that might turn into a family,
that might turn into kids?
I gotta think 90 plus percent of young men would think,
yeah, I’d rather have more opportunity
for sexual encounters.
If women believe that the downside of pregnancy
might be they have to carry the baby to term or worse,
they end up in an emergency room parking lot
with sepsis because doctors are afraid to treat her,
you’re gonna have less sex men.
So I go to just very selfish reasons
why men should be fighting for Harris and bodily autonomy.
And I don’t think men have gotten,
have received the message.
The thing I wanted to get your impression for,
I love unexpected surprises.
And I’m, this is my new thesis
on what I think is going to play
a critical role in an election that no one saw coming.
The October surprise I think is here.
And it’s the following and I’d love to get your response.
– Tony Hencliffe, who I’d never heard of.
He’s an actor kind of made famous,
or excuse me, a comedian made famous by Joe Rogan,
address the audience at the Trump rally
in Madison Square Garden.
And let me start off with,
I was shocked by how many Trump supporters
they were able to turn out in Manhattan.
– You know there are trains to Long Island.
That take you right in.
– But it’s a big stadium and it was passionate.
– Yeah, of course.
– I thought in deep blue territory,
it was really impressive that they turned out
so many diehard, enthusiastic Trump supporters.
So this comedian goes on to basically say,
there is this 50 ton island of floating trash
in the Caribbean and it’s Puerto Rico.
– There’s literally a floating island of garbage
in the middle of the ocean right now.
Yeah, I think it’s called Puerto Rico.
– There are 400,000 Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania.
– I thought this comment was so,
not only did it not land,
and I think you gotta cut comedians a pretty wide berth.
I’m very forgiving of comedians,
but this seemed to illuminate the Trump DNA
in such a negative way.
And that clip has gone viral.
And if I’m a Puerto Rican who maybe was supporting Harris
but not that enthusiastic and wasn’t gonna turn out,
I think she might get an incremental 10 or 15,000 votes
in Pennsylvania, which might swing Pennsylvania,
which might swing the election.
I think Tony Hinchcliffe, and that’s his name, Hinchcliffe,
might be the October surprise
that Harris fans were looking for.
– So I was following along to the rally via acts,
driving back from seeing Disney Junior, the live show.
So we could talk about that another day.
– You know what, that would be a toss up for me,
a Trump rally or the Disney,
I really wouldn’t know what to do there.
– I struggled, hardcore struggled,
went down to kind of, to Red Bank, New Jersey,
total Trump country to see Disney Junior.
My daughter, looking like she stroked out
when she saw Minnie in person, which was adorable.
You know, the little kid dancing is so cute.
But anyway, I’m following along to this MSG hot mess.
And I too, I wasn’t surprised that he filled the arena,
but I was talking to friends who were in there,
including reporters who said, it’s super common here.
Everyone is really nice.
It feels quite joyous, celebratory of everything
that Donald Trump is as a showman and entertainer.
And I totally get it.
Like he’s a lifelong New Yorker, you come back,
you sell out the garden, I mean, not sell out,
but you know what I mean, you fill the garden.
And I had heard Tony Hinchcliffe before,
because he was part of Tom Brady’s roast.
And I thought he was hilarious, making fun of Tom Brady,
which is a little bit different
than making fun of Puerto Ricans like that.
And that was the first kind of set of clips
that really stood out to me as concerning
for the Trump campaign,
because you saw the immediate backlash.
So Bad Bunny was up right away,
I think it’s 45 million followers with a video
that Kamala had cut for Puerto Ricans, posted that,
then JLo, then Ricky Martin.
So within like 10 minutes, 115 million followers
had been activated against Donald Trump because of this clip.
And it was a reminder to a lot of people.
And I think Ricky Martin actually used
the old footage of Trump after Hurricane Maria,
where he showed up and he threw paper towels
at people who had just had their homes absolutely decimated.
And I thought, okay, this might be in your words,
the October surprise of it,
which is basically that Trump can never
just stick with a good thing.
Like people think you’re kind of human,
and that you kind of don’t think these things.
And because you wanna have the raunchiest
and the funniest guy here.
And by the way, First Amendment protected,
it was a joke, I didn’t find that funny.
I don’t think we should be policing comedians in any way.
But a comedy show and a political rally are very different.
And you can expect if there had been
a Comedians for Kamala event,
and you had John Mulaney up there,
he wasn’t going to be insulting people like that.
He’s gonna be making fun of himself.
Or even if you had someone more out there,
like Dave Chappelle or Bill Burr,
they might make a few policy jokes.
Like Bill Burr actually has this hilarious bit
that he does about abortion.
And he’s a pro-choice supporter,
but he basically talks about how it is murder.
And it’s like a half-baked pie.
He’s like, you’re not gonna say that it’s not a pie
just because you only half-baked it, right?
Like those are all things that I can get on board with,
but there’s no way that they would have
stepped over the line that far.
And then so you have the liberal supporters that come out.
But then you see the conservatives,
like Rick Scott, the senator from Florida
who is in a reelection battle,
immediately says this is not right.
This is not what I think of Puerto Ricans.
Puerto Ricans are great people.
You see other GOP officials.
We’re gonna talk a little bit
about down-ballot races towards the end of the podcast.
There’s a guy, Diaz Pizito, who’s out in Suffolk County.
He looks like he’s gonna lose his race,
a Republican former cop.
I think he was the only vulnerable Democrat
or only Republican congressman or woman from New York
who actually showed up at the rally.
He’s immediately has to say, what the F is this?
I don’t think this at all.
So I think it was a complete disaster,
not to mention then that, you know,
Steven Miller goes on to say,
America is for Americans and Americans only.
To really bring the messaging home.
But I’m sure that what felt like a joyous occasion
in the aftermath, you know,
the Trump campaign put out a statement
saying that it doesn’t reflect their views.
Well, I’m sorry, it’s pretty precisely your campaign’s views.
If you pick the guy and the joke
was loaded in the teleprompter, right?
He didn’t make this up.
He wasn’t riffing.
Yeah, I would fire a Harris.
I’d be taking some of that precious airtime
that they have blocked across every local news station
in kind of the full employment act
for local broadcast news stations
in Pennsylvania and the swing states.
And I would just be running that clip,
that this is what the Republican party thinks of,
thinks of our, you know,
brothers and sisters here in America.
That struck me as, wow, this can’t,
and this is a real,
this is a significant population.
And I would imagine that this qualifies as a population
that A might not be, is inclined to vote for Harris.
It strikes me, this is really fertile ground
and they’ve just given us,
as being Democrats of the Harris campaign,
a softball here.
I wonder if this is gonna be,
especially in Pennsylvania,
I had no idea, 400,000 Puerto Ricans.
We’ll be right back.
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– Thank you.
– Meanwhile, Trump is making his closing argument,
leaning heavily into a message of fear,
particularly around immigration.
He had a big rally, as we referenced at MSG,
with many of the same folks that appeared at the RNC.
He also went on Joe Rogan’s podcast,
which I thought was very smart on the part of their campaign,
which is huge as Rogan has 14 million Spotify followers.
This was, it felt like an attempt to appeal
to young, low propensity male voters.
Let’s listen to a clip.
– So I have a son who’s very smart and tall, Baron, right?
And he knows all about you.
He knows about guys I never heard of.
He said, “Dad, you don’t know how big they are, they’re big.”
You know, he said, “Who the hell is he?”
Like Ross, I did, he said, “Dad, he’s a great guy.”
I mean, guys said, “It’s a whole new world out there.”
It’s a different world. – But you know, I’m on TikTok now.
– Congratulations. – And I’ve done really well.
No, but do you know the crazy,
have you seen the numbers?
Billions, like billions of hits, it’s crazy.
– I’m sure TikTok’s a wild application.
– And I’ve gone up 30 points.
A Republican has always downed 30 with young people.
I’m plus 30.
And I’m on TikTok, it’s had a huge impact.
– Young people are rejecting a lot of this woke bullshit.
Young people are tired of being yelled at and scolded.
They’re tired of these people
that they think are mentally ill,
telling them what the moral standards
of society should be today.
And people are upset.
– Your thoughts, Jess?
– Well, it was three hours, so I have many thoughts.
I think net net a positive for him to do that.
Exposure is always a good thing,
especially when he’s weaving, I think that’s the term he likes.
At one point, Rogan is like,
“You gotta weave a little less.”
Right, like I am actually trying to ask you something here.
Obviously that stat he threw out is completely incorrect.
The final Harvard youth poll came out
and she’s up 30 with young voters to be expected.
And people should cross tab dive through the ABC poll
from the weekend, which was really good for her head,
her up four, but also performing better
with black men and Latino men than Biden did even.
So we’ll see if that ends up checking out.
But one thing that Rogan did that I admired him for,
and I also thought that the venue was so perfect
for him to do this because it was not adversarial at all.
He called him out on the BS
about winning the 2020 election in a direct way,
but also a comforting way.
So that Trump didn’t feel like he was being accused
of something necessarily.
Rogan just said, “Are you ever gonna show us
“what you’re talking about?”
And that’s always been the problem
that they tell this grand story of stolen votes
and all these poll workers that were cheating
and all of the inaccuracies and the frauds and blah, blah, blah.
And they’ve never shown anything.
And people who have gone to jail will go to jail for that.
I mean, Rudy Giuliani owns nothing anymore.
Those election workers in Georgia
own his apartment on the Upper East Side
as a result of all of this.
So I really appreciated that Rogan did that.
And he said in his interview that the negotiations
with Kamala’s team are still alive,
whereas Kamala’s spokesperson said that it was a no-go,
said it was due to scheduling.
So I mean, obviously that’s not the case.
And I assume that she wanted some guardrails
that he wouldn’t offer,
but I think she totally should do it.
– She should have done it 100%.
– Like what could happen to you?
Is it could it be worse than losing the election?
I don’t know, that seems like the worst.
– No, and he’s, as an interviewer,
one thing I do like about Rogan
is when I started podcasting,
I was used to think it was my job to have a gotcha moment.
And then I realized Sam Harris said something
that always struck me that
he tries to present people in their best light.
And I try and do that now.
And I actually think Rogan does that, he’ll push back.
But he doesn’t try and have a gotcha moment.
Like Brett Baer was trying to corner her.
He started with some, he was trying to,
he had questions that were gotcha questions
with a follow-up and thinking she would respond this way.
And quite frankly, CNN does the same thing to candidates
who are from the right, he doesn’t do that.
She would have come out of this much more positive
and as we’ve said, Trump going on Rogan reached more people
than if he had gone on primetime CNN, MSNBC and Fox
every night, every week night for a week.
I mean, this guy, it really has changed
the complexion of the media landscape is these podcasts.
I think it’s a huge mistake
for her not to have done that.
And then I had this weird triggering moment
when I was in that clip and that is he described his son,
he said, “So I have a son who’s very smart and tall.”
And I thought, as a father, I would just never end tall.
Like, who cares?
That is like the last way I would describe my son.
I wouldn’t-
– Well, he’s obsessed with physicality.
– It’s just so weird to say that, you know, I have-
– I mean, he’s like six, nine, he’s like really tall.
– It’d be cooler if he was a basketball player
and you say, “Oh, he’s really tall, he’s a basketball player.”
– Yeah, and he’s at NYU and I’m happy he’s there.
I hope he has a wonderful experience.
But I thought this guy just his approach to fathering.
I just found it’s so weird that dad would describe
his son that way.
Anyways.
– Can I just quickly, before we get off this?
So he, I mean, three hours again,
a lot of opportunity to weave,
but he did a lot of historical stuff.
So he was wrong about which son of Lincoln’s died,
but he’s talking about like McKinley
and origins of tariffs.
And I couldn’t really follow a ton of it,
but I wonder if that does make a low information voter
think this guy knows more about what he’s talking about
than he actually does,
that you can even like throw these names into it.
Cause you know how sometimes when you’re so overwhelmed
and the zone is so proverbially flooded by things,
that you just hear a few things
and you assume that someone gets it
or knows what they’re talking about.
– Look, I hate to admit it.
I didn’t listen all three hours.
And that’s the reason I don’t listen
to Rogan or Lex Friedman.
And they’re kind of the original gangsters.
They’re both fantastic at what they do.
And I’ve said, despite that,
I don’t agree with a lot of Joe’s comments.
Every podcaster should send a royalty into Rogan
because he’s kind of busted open the medium.
But on the whole, that was a big win for him
because putting him in a relaxed atmosphere,
he, it softens his image and he needs that right now.
He comes across as the kind of guy,
at least I thought Trump came across as the kind of guy.
One, I thought he came across as old and age old
and not having any sense of history
or clearly has not only doesn’t fact check himself,
but doesn’t think anyone’s gonna fact check him
that will have any importance.
That he can just say whatever he wants.
But he came across as a guy you could grab a beer with.
He came across, in my opinion, is more likable.
He did at one point kind of laugh at himself.
The data itself or the historical inaccuracies
were just everywhere, but it doesn’t seem to matter.
And Van Jones had kind of the right,
I mean, and Michelle Obama brought it up as well,
but Van Jones did it first on CNN.
You know, he’s lawless and she’s expected to be flawless.
This is the mother of all grading on a curve
that is entirely different.
It is just, I mean, everyone is waiting.
And again, Michelle was so powerful.
Everyone’s waiting to parse every word she says
on an interview.
And then he gets up and says shit
that’s just blatantly wrong and weird and never happened
or goes off on a crazy tangent or says,
I don’t wanna answer questions, let’s listen to music.
If she did any of the things he does in any interview,
it would be like, Democrats in the press would be like,
oh my God, she’s lost it, she’s lost.
The Harris campaign is absolutely screwed up.
Absolutely screwed up not going on Rogan.
It would have been a huge win for the last thing
he was gonna do would be to go after
the Democratic female candidate of color.
He just wouldn’t have gone there.
And in general, Joe does try to give people
some running room and give them, in my opinion,
he gives them too much the benefit of the doubt.
When he brings on a total fucking quack
to say that mRNA vaccines all to your DNA,
he doesn’t say, well, is there any peer-reviewed research
that says there’s any veracity to that statement?
I don’t know if you knew this actually pulled my pilot
office spotify for a year.
I was so triggered by the whole thing.
But anyways, enough virtue signaling.
I think it was a win for him.
I think it was a win for him.
– Definitely and a good part of the closing argument,
which obviously the MSG rally was
and Kamala will be doing this speech at the ellipse
at clearly making, you know, protecting democracy
at the core of her clothes.
I personally would have preferred her to go
to an auto factory in Michigan or even a hospital,
you know, to talk about healthcare,
the people who really keep the country going.
But obviously this is a calculated decision
that they’ve made.
I think that those persuadable right-leaning Indies
and Republicans are more into protecting democracy.
But what do you think about that?
– I think you’re absolutely right.
I think one of the biggest mistakes we as Democrats
keep making is that we keep thinking if we keep talking
about what’s wrong with him, it’ll work.
That strategy has not worked.
She needs to talk about what’s right with her.
And that is the policy around Medicare,
such that your parents can die at home,
the policies around lack of tariffs,
the first home buyers.
She needs to play offense around why you should vote for me
as opposed to why you should not vote for him.
I agree with you.
She should have made an economic argument at the end
and talk about her policy.
The other kind of news,
and I’ll obviously give you my view up front,
I don’t think it’s big news, if you will,
is last week Trump’s longest serving chief of staff,
retired Marine General, John Kelly,
told The New York Times that in his view,
Trump would govern like a dictator if reelected.
Let’s listen to some of the audio that was released.
– Do you think he’s a fascist?
– Well, I’m looking at the definition of fascism.
It’s a far-right authoritarian,
ultra-nationalist political ideology movement
characterized by a dictatorial leader,
centralized hypocrisy, militarism,
forcible suppression of opposition,
belief in a natural social hierarchy.
So certainly, in my experience,
those are the kinds of things that he’s worked with work
that are in terms of running America.
– Well, I have a couple of questions here if you just.
First is, I would not agree with General Kelly’s policies,
I would bet, but it’s just weird.
We can’t get guys like that to run for president.
I mean, it’s clearly just so knowledgeable
and thoughtful and measured.
Do you think this is damaging for Trump
that Kelly has come out and said this?
– I think it’s always a problem
if somebody that respected,
and we should be honest about this.
I mean, Trump’s team, the ones who are still loyal to him,
have come out and say he hated him from the start.
He has always been insubordinate,
which is probably a four-star Marine general insubordinate,
but that he had an axe to grind and this is all made up
and has gotten a lot of quite credible people actually
to disparage Mark Milley and John Kelly.
But I think it can’t ever be good for you
that you have people on the record.
And this isn’t the Murmurs campaign anymore.
John Kelly sat down with Michael Schmidt at the times
and said this stuff on audio
and Kamala can use it in that way
and that can make it even more powerful
because I mean, this was a fight I was having on the five
with my colleagues on Friday about the fascism thing.
They said, she’s calling him a fascist.
I said, no, John Kelly in his voice is calling him a fascist.
And I do think if these late breakers,
the only undecideds left are people
that are partial to this argument
that this guy doesn’t care about the constitution.
He doesn’t care how you vote.
And there’s a ton of evidence
that what they are doing right now,
even in like what Tucker Carlson said in the MSG rally,
that they are making it seem as though his win
is so clearly ordained that anything but a Trump victory
will be fraud and that you will have to rise up
to take your country back.
The groundwork for that is happening.
And I think we’ve been talking on this for weeks.
That’s part of the complacency as well
with the get out the vote operation.
You know, giving it to Scott Pressler and Charlie Kirk.
You know, we’re knocking on a million doors
and they’re listening to Rogan.
It’s a very different world
in terms of how this is campaigning.
So not, not I think it’s always bad to be called a fascist,
but I do think it stands that people,
it’s your hard press to move people
about how they feel about Donald Trump at this point.
– The Trump campaign responded by calling Kelly’s claims,
debunked story is an accusing him
of having Trump arrangement syndrome.
By the way, I’ve been called to,
I’ve been accused of that a lot.
Do you get accused of that?
– Yeah, I have TDS so bad.
– Yeah, everywhere, everywhere.
Do I need antibiotics anyways?
– No, leptards will be fine.
Don’t worry. – There you go.
Meanwhile, Harris sees the moment
to focus on democracy targeting Republicans
who may be wavering on Trump.
I personally, unfortunately,
I think this is a big nothing burger.
I think people are so used to,
I think four of his 44 former secretaries
or cabinet members are supporting him.
The notion that these people folks aren’t supporting him
is something that’s already been absorbed
into the ecosystem.
I thought the most interesting part of this is
I like a sexy Jake Tapper, I like him salty.
Did you see him with Senator Vance?
– Yeah, and Mike Johnson the weekend before.
– Yeah, he was not taking it from Senator Vance.
I thought, I’m really like, I’m like, Jake,
you big slice of man.
I thought he had some of that, like Tom Selleck fire in him.
I’m like, put a mustache on the guy and,
my gosh, what did you think of that?
Did you, what did you think of that interview?
– I thought it was great.
And I mean, when it’s so clear now
that the only way to be able to do this effectively
is to use their own words against them
or people’s own words.
Like Mike Johnson the weekend before,
you know, Trump does the Arnold Palmer’s
big downstairs thing.
And Mike Johnson was like,
I don’t know what you’re trying to do.
Tapper’s like, okay, well, I’ll just play it for you.
Right, you just sit there
and I will just play this for you.
Just to watch people squirm.
I think almost the optics of it,
oftentimes matter more than the words
where you see how visibly uncomfortable.
And you remember back to the early days of Trump,
even with people like Ted Cruz, right?
Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham, where they just can’t,
like their skin is crawling
and you can see it under their suits, right?
Like trying to be freed from how bad this is.
So I think it’s a very effective way to interview
and what you should be doing.
I mean, Brett did it with Kamala.
He did it with Trump last year or two years ago
and he said, here’s everything that people who worked
for you said about you.
How do you explain that?
Can they all be wrong?
To your point that only four are still supporting him.
But with eight days left,
I worry that nothing matters, except knocking on doors
and doing souls to the polls
and making sure that you’re energizing
the communities that need to turn out.
And Kamala spent all day yesterday in Philadelphia.
She went to church there.
She crisscrossed throughout all the neighborhoods
some very emotional and sweet scenes
of women embracing her and crying.
You know, feeling like it’s not going to be okay
this time around, especially because he’s a lame duck, right?
Like there’s no third Trump term.
Well, I mean, knock on wood, whatever.
Liz Cheney would say would probably try to find a way.
But people have this feeling of desperation
that there will be no guardrails
and you will get no John Kelly’s
that will work for him again.
– Mark Milley is sipping coronas on a beach somewhere, right?
He’s like, I am done with this.
And so who will staff this government?
You see even Miller and Tony Hinchcliffe?
– Yeah, it’s a, I agree with you.
I think at this point it’s,
I love that souls to the polls, feet on the street,
if you will. – Yep.
– All right, Jess, let’s take a quick break.
Stay with us.
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(gentle music)
– Welcome back.
So far, we’ve focused mostly on the presidential race,
but control of the House and Senate is also on the line,
and could have a huge impact on whoever wins the presidency.
Let’s dive into the Senate.
Do you think that Democrats can hold onto the Senate?
Which key races are you watching?
– So no, I don’t.
I’m resigned to it.
John Tester is fabulous, but feels a little done,
even with that crazy story that Chi,
who is running against, lied about where he got shot.
He said he got shot in Afghanistan,
but it was actually in a parking lot,
like outside of a national park.
Which you would think would be completely upending.
– Right, yeah, that’s kind of a key feature of being shot.
I was shot in combat, no, I was shot in the parking lot.
– Right, and we’re talking about Tim Walz
and the stolen baller, right?
Of not filling out the right paperwork on time.
One of the races I’m really interested too, on the Senate.
So Colin Allred has been running a fantastic campaign,
and I feel like we say this regularly,
like this might be the time we get rid of Ted Cruz.
And I don’t really think that,
but Colin Allred is doing so much better
than Beto did with this.
I mean, I think it’s also just who he is,
lands better with people.
And he’s taking on the culture war stuff so brilliantly.
I don’t know if I mentioned on the podcast before,
but he cut an ad saying he’s not for trans women
and women sports.
He’s just like, I played professional football.
This is ludicrous.
Ted Cruz is trying to say this about us.
And a fun fact actually, the number one issue
that Trump has been advertising on is anti-trans issues.
The economy in number five, trans stuff, number one.
So clearly they think they can win a culture war election.
But Colin Allred is within striking distance.
Some polls like two, three points behind.
Big deal, Kamala is there.
He showed up at that rally, spoke as well.
So Beyonce Allred and Kamala,
do you think there’s any shot
or we just keep fantasizing about a world without Ted Cruz?
– Well, the survey conducted by the New York Times
and Santa College shows that Cruz leads with 50% support
to 46 for Allred.
So it’s technically still in the margin of error,
but it feels marginable that,
or there’s a marginal shot here for Allred.
I, Cruz, this strikes me as the vampire of the Senate.
It just, we can’t kill the guy.
And he just feels Texas seems to like him.
And the thing is, if Allred loses,
my sense is Allred has ran almost a near perfect campaign.
The few times I have seen clips,
I’ve thought, wow, is this guy good?
And Cruz just looks so off his game,
like trying to respond to these things.
He’s put them on his heels every time they get together.
He’s had a central casting.
He’s thoughtful.
He comes across.
I would have thought that it,
the bottom line is if Allred can’t be Cruz,
I’m not sure, I think people are just gonna give up.
I think people are gonna,
Democrats are gonna wait till he dies
’cause I think he’s run a great campaign.
– Or he just needs a bigger podcast deal.
The guy wants to be Joe Rogan
more than he wants to be a senator.
The other race I wanna talk about,
and I think if you don’t know about this guy,
you are going to love him so much
is what’s going on in Nebraska.
So there’s an independent guy named Dan Osborne.
He is a veteran.
He was a labor leader, a mechanic who was running.
He has been a registered independent in his whole life,
Deb Fischer, sitting Republican Senator, two term.
Dan Osborne in the New York Times,
Seattle poll from Monday is within two points of doing this.
Now Mitch McConnell last minute is having to send in
a ton of money, but Dan Osborne, I loved this quote.
And I thought like, does this guy listen to Scott
or does Scott listen to this guy?
He says, you know what I think it’s going to do?
This is if he wins.
If Nebraska does the right thing
and it’ll lack some mechanic to the halls of power,
the rest of the country is gonna say, holy crap,
did you see what Nebraska did?
And it’s going to tell people who are nurses, teachers,
plumbers, carpenters, bus drivers, other mechanics
that you don’t have to be a self-funding crypto billionaire
to run for office.
– Yeah, he’s very strong.
That might be the best.
I’ve already decided that the morning of the sixth,
I’m just gonna keep refreshing the results
on Lake Gallegos just for my own, just to make myself
feel better. – Just to feel good, yeah.
– Just to feel good ’cause it looks like,
it looks like she’s on her way to the feet.
– Yeah, well we’re in Gallegos run an amazing campaign too.
We should, I mean, he’s running against a lunatic,
but he’s done a good job like all right as well.
– I think he’s run a competent campaign.
She will lose this election.
I mean, A, she’s not qualified,
and B, she’s batched crazy.
But anyways, that would be the race you mentioned
in Nebraska, that would be super exciting.
I’m really disappointed about Senator Tester.
I think he’s been a really solid.
I think he’s done a great job of, again, another moderate
where there’s just no home for this person.
I think he’s done a fantastic job
and has really been a great senator.
So let’s get right to it.
So we talked a little bit about the Senate.
What do you think about Congress?
– My association, I’m knocking on wood.
I don’t know if this is real wood or fake wood,
but I knocked on it, is that we’ll take the house back.
And it’s cool to be in New York,
even though I went and voted on our first day
of early voting on Saturday.
Got my kids those future voter stickers.
But my seat, doesn’t matter.
I’m in Dan Goldman’s territory,
but a few really exciting races in New York.
Arguably, we’re the ones that lost it a couple of years ago
when George Santos was even able to take a seat.
So I already mentioned Anthony Giasposito,
who’s running, I think it’s New York four.
He is down.
He hired his mistress and his fiance’s daughter to work.
I think both of them in the same office are very strange.
– At the same time?
– I think so.
– Pretty warm, huh?
Oh, that’s wrong.
That was wrong.
– Yeah, that was wrong.
I actually was gonna try to gloss over it,
but you repeated it twice.
So he seems to be down pretty significantly.
Mike Lawler and Mondair Jones,
that’s an interesting race that has a blackface component
from Mike Lawler dressing up as Michael Jackson,
Mondair Jones, part of the squad.
So that tension going on.
John Avlon running out in the nice, fancy part of the Hamptons
and then also more rural Suffolk County has been fascinating.
He was down only four in the latest polling
and Mark Molinaro upstate.
He only won by 6,000 votes as a Republican.
So there’s potential to take that back
and that’s a rematch as well.
– Yeah, it’s gonna be, does it give you any comfort?
And I don’t wanna be a defeatist,
but say Trump does emerge as the victor here.
Given the map, which was terrible for Democrats this election
and would be much better in 2026
and given that traditionally a midterm election
typically swings way back towards the party
that didn’t win the presidency,
given that it’ll probably be kind of a pretty wonderfully
intransigent government,
which is the reason we have three branches
regardless of what happens.
Do you think Democrats would have any comfort
knowing that most likely 2026
might be a pretty good opportunity
to take back control of the Senate and the House
if there’s a Trump victory?
– I mean, sure.
Yeah, like you’re really grasping at straws.
I don’t think that you can say to any Democrat
with a week out, like will this make you feel better
if Donald Trump is the president?
No, nothing will make me feel better
at least for a really long time.
Winning is great.
I would love to have the opportunity to take back the Senate.
I hope that it’s just a small margin in their side
and that they need JD Vance to be breaking all the ties
and things like that.
But no, I think that people have woken up.
Do you remember, as recline reported,
after he did the first shot across Biden’s bow
where he said, “You should go out then.
We had the State of the Union.”
And then he said, “Oh, maybe I was wrong.”
Then he was like, “Oh, I saw the debate.
I definitely was right.”
But he said that he was getting the sense
that Democrats actually weren’t that scared
about another Trump term.
That there was a lot of bluster,
but in reality, they’d worked with him before.
And there even Bob Casey and Tammy Baldwin
have cut ads talking about working with Trump,
which obviously signals that they are in A, tight races,
but B, that they don’t think
that this is absolutely the end of the world.
I feel like the energy now is where it should be
and that people aren’t being as lax
as they were about the Trump threat.
Do you feel like the energy is at the level
that it should be?
– So this goes into,
I mean, we have to have a,
each of us has to have a prediction here
or something resembling a prediction
and more so than our prediction for the candidate.
What is the underlying element
or the surprise that might happen here?
And I think the energy is very positive
for Harris right now other than,
in this confirmation bias, full disclosure,
there are 10 more, 10 X the number of feet on the street
getting people to the polls,
Democrats versus Republicans.
This election is becoming so tight
and the geographic coverage is so tiny
in terms of what’s going to decide this.
It isn’t even a small number of swing states.
It’s a small number of swing counties
that I think those feet on the street,
this might be the election of podcasts
and of feet of the most analog thing ever.
And that is knocking on a door
and saying the election is today,
have you voted or it’s tomorrow, have you voted?
I remember when I was in San Francisco,
they somehow knew I hadn’t voted
and they knocked on my door three times.
I mean, they literally shamed me.
I was going to vote,
but they shamed me until like they kept showing up saying,
they haven’t voted yet.
– Now is the time.
– Yeah, let’s go now.
Do you want to go now?
Here’s some coffee.
Can I hold your hand?
– Yeah.
– You know, and I do think that that might carry us over.
And then my, and I’ll turn this back to you.
And then the other thing
that I think is the October surprise here,
I think you’re going to hear the name Tony Hinchcliffe
a lot more in the next eight days
and 400,000 Puerto Ricans
in the swing state can’t feel good
about the Republican party right now.
I saw this thing and I thought, wow, that is just,
comedy is the art or art is the ability
to get away with it, to say something.
And I try to do this.
You try to do it occasionally on the five with humor
and that is to say something that is pushes the envelope
but you soften the beach with comedy.
And this was the art of not getting away with it.
He said something blatantly racist and it fell so flat.
It didn’t land so hard
that it was the worst of all worlds for them.
It feeds exactly into the fear people have
about this administration.
And clearly nobody did the math and said,
you realize this is a big constituency
in the most important state.
So my prediction is that I do like what Michelle Obama said
about men need to move to protection
and are you there to protect us
to the feet on the street?
And three, I think this Tony Hinchcliffe debacle might,
if it gets 3,000 people,
I mean, that’s literally what we’re down to at this point.
I think those three things are going to potentially,
I’m predicting this is not only gonna be a win for Harris,
it’s gonna be a decisive win.
And that is a huge proximity bias.
This is me trying to tell myself,
I think I can, I think I can.
I’m a brave strong,
when you see those TikToks of the four-year-old girl
jumping off something and she’s like, I am courageous,
I’m strong, I mean, this is me trying to keep myself saying,
but that’s my prediction.
What are your thoughts eight days out?
– So I am, like I said, I’m having a more optimistic day
and my emotions are all over the place
not to be too female about it.
Unsurprisingly, I have highs and lows
and it usually depends on my blood sugar.
– We have those too.
– No, I know.
– I just turned to alcohol, but anyways, go ahead.
– Yeah, I’m trying to avoid that.
It’s just not great taking care of a baby that way,
but we could get there.
My prediction is that the shy voter of this election
is the right-leaning person.
It’s not the Trump voter that we had in 2016
and to a lesser degree in 2020,
but the right-leaning person
who casts a country over party vote.
And there’s been a lot of very good journalism
from interviews about how many people are saying,
I just can’t do it.
I just can’t vote for him in this scenario.
I don’t love her.
I don’t necessarily think that I know her that well.
And it does keep coming up consistently
that not having a good answer on immigration,
even if immigration is not your big issue,
is something that is very bothersome to people.
And for me, die hard down.
I feel that way as well.
I don’t know how they haven’t figured out
something better to say about that,
but that people are just gonna go in the voting booth
and quietly do their business and vote for Kamala.
Kind of what Brett Stevens articulated
in his, you know, in the conversation
with Gail Collins last weekend when he said it.
So I think that in general,
a black and Latino men in particular
will quote unquote come home.
That Trump will perform better than he did before,
but it won’t be these kinds of huge realignments
that we had been seeing.
But Kamala wins.
There will be a much needed autopsy
on who the Democratic Party is,
because if we manage to pull this off,
if she does win,
because we will have won this on the votes of people
who are not ours for future elections.
If they were on a normal Republican again,
you know, if it’s Glenn Youngkin or somebody,
they’re not with us anymore.
And we need to do a lot of, you know,
good, long-hard thinking about how we have been messaging
to men, to minority voters, in some cases, even to women.
You should always have the highest goals possible.
And I think that I don’t wanna let, you know,
perfect be the enemy of the good.
I hope that we have done good enough,
but Liz Cheney is a rental.
We do not own Liz Cheney.
And I think about that a lot.
– It’s funny ’cause I think if Trump wins,
the Republican Party is literally gonna need
to be totally reconfigured.
– That’s what my husband says.
He’s like, it needs to be blown up.
– Where are they?
– Yeah.
– They would literally have to go.
They’re like, okay, the verdict is in.
There’s no, you know,
turning chicken shit into chicken salad here.
This guy is basically taking the Republican Party down.
When a lot of their issues seem to resonate
and like we kicked out all the old line Republicans,
what is the new, who are the new Republicans?
– It’s J.D. Vance.
Then J.D. Vance really is the future of the party.
– That’s really interesting.
That’s really interesting.
So I wanna read some, just as we wrap up here,
I just wanna read some of your quotes.
I’m there to represent at least of the voting public,
the majority of Americans, Ms. Tarlow said over
a recent breakfast, we, she meant Democrats in 2020,
got 81 million votes.
There are more of me than there are of them.
Her goal, she said, is to inject a Democratic perspective
into the Fox bloodstream while showing viewers
that ideological foes can still get along.
I also wanna win elections, said Ms. Tarlow,
who got her start in politics working for Douglas Shown,
Shane Shown, Shown a Democratic pollster.
And I think that being on the most watched show
is the best place to be.
And then you literally, at some point,
I mean, I do, I really do like you.
So I just kept smiling. – Using my mom wrote it.
– Oh my God. – I got a lot of texts
like that, like did Judy write this?
– Jesus. – Yeah.
– It’s just– – But that’s,
I don’t know, I’ve made this case
and I think I’ve persuaded you a bit about it.
You know, the undecideds are the ones watching Fox
and that is an important reason to be there.
But people want to tune in to see real conversation
and to your souls to the polls point.
There are more of us.
I feel like we run as if there are only like 10 of us
and there are a cajillion of them.
There are more people that agree with our point of view.
So we should be a little bit louder about it
and have better media strategy, which we do not.
I mean, the right crushes us in terms of that,
even though we quote unquote own the culture.
– No, this thing, yeah, I just can’t get over this.
Even that picture, that’s a, I don’t know if I like–
– I mean, it’s a lot of hair and makeup, but–
– I don’t know if the orange tank pantsuit
is what I would have gone with.
– Really? – That is literally,
I mean, you look great, but I’m not sure
what that color– – So then don’t bring me down, man.
That was a great suit.
That is a pastel power suit, if there ever was one.
– That is a Secretary Clinton suit.
– Well, you know how I feel about her, 3D printed doll.
Your profile was insanely nice, too.
– Oh, mine was a headpiece compared to this thing.
Literally, this is, if you ever run for president,
this will be seen as like the launch article.
Oh my gosh, anyways, with that, we’re gonna wrap up here.
That’s all for this episode.
If you have not read this article
and you wanna see what it’s like,
what a puff piece is like,
from everyone’s new favorite Democrat, Jess Tarlov.
Go and just type in the New York Times out, type in Tarlov,
that’s T-A-R-L-O-V, and you’re gonna see
what it’s like to be on the receiving end.
– And how good the suit is.
Also, the 27th was our one year anniversary
when we were on Marr together.
And this piece came out that day.
– I’m so glad you remembered.
– I’m so glad you remembered.
– My husband did, weirdly.
He’s like, “We were on Marr week.”
He didn’t say we, he does not think we.
He said, “We were out in LA for Marr
“and you met Scott a year ago, today.”
– There you go, it’s our one year anniversary, Jess.
– Yeah, it’s been amazing.
– Who would have thought we’d be here
making probably incorrect predictions about all things.
– Yeah, Trump’s definitely gonna win.
– Yeah.
– Yeah, I’m gonna say.
All right, that’s it.
That’s all for this episode.
Thank you for listening to Raging Moderates.
Our producers are Caroline Shagren and David Toledo.
Our technical directors, Drew Burroughs.
You can find Raging Moderates on its own feed every Tuesday.
That’s right, Raging Moderates has its own feed.
Please follow us wherever you get your podcasts.
Jess, have a great rest of the week.
– You too.
– Stay stable.
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– Welcome to Raging Moderates, I’m Scott Galloway.
– And I’m Jessica Tarla.
And you are literally the recipient
of the biggest puff piece I have ever seen.
For our listeners that don’t subscribe to The New York Times
or haven’t seen it in your social media feed,
according to The New York Times,
Jess is the person on Fox that people love to hate,
but they can’t help loving.
I have never seen-
– Show me the lies, Scott Galloway.
– I read, I like you and I wanted to scroll up in my mouth.
Jesus Christ, it was even the pictures were fantastic.
You, I imagine if, I mean, granted,
you’re not as self-absorbed as I am,
or at least I don’t think you are.
I would have just-
– Trying to avoid it, yeah.
– I would have just wallpapered my house in that article.
Oh my gosh, you must feel great.
– It’s pretty good.
This, my liberal heart was warmed, let’s say.
– Oh my goodness.
– And there’s always these moments
that break through out of the Fox orbit,
where my actual life knows what I do for a living
and kind of can see it.
So my text messages, just full of like parents
and grandparents of people that I know,
that are like, oh my God, you’re alive
and you’re doing this cool thing.
No, it was fabulous.
They did a, it was a very generous article for sure,
but I liked how much they captured about my background
and also what I’m doing at Fox.
And they had great quotes from my colleagues.
I have zero complaints and you told me
I would have a complaint and I don’t.
I got the puff piece of the century.
– Yeah, I was just, I was, I knew it would be good.
I knew it would be positive,
but any kind of, almost any,
any, especially in New York times,
feels like they gotta find a couple people
to say bad things about you.
And they clearly couldn’t find anyone.
– But I’m not a white man.
So I feel like I had that going in my favor.
– Yeah, I was.
I read it and I kept waiting for,
you know, the line saying some people she’s,
some people say she’s whatever to, you know,
or she gets a pass because it never came.
It was just talking to all these Republicans who love you
and all these Democrats who adore you.
Anyways, congratulations.
That’s, that was really nice.
– It was very cool.
– A nice moment for you.
So today we’re going to be talking
about the final week of the campaign,
John Kelly’s warning about Trump’s fascist behavior
and the down ball of races that we have our eyes on.
All right, so we are down to the final week.
Thank God.
Kamala Harris is pulling in A-list names
to get voters fired up.
Beyonce, Eminem wasn’t, I didn’t see that one coming.
Bruce Springsteen, Spike Lee,
Samuel Jackson, just to name a few.
Hillary Clinton did something similar back in 2016,
but Harris’s approach has been different.
She’s been calling herself the underdog all along,
whereas Clinton’s campaign carried
an expectation of victory.
The rally in Houston with Beyonce was her largest yet.
Let’s listen to a clip.
– We are at the precipice of an incredible shift,
the brink of history.
I’m not here as a celebrity.
I’m not here as a politician.
I’m here as a mother.
A mother who cares deeply about the world,
my children and all of our children living.
A world where we have the freedom to control our bodies.
A world where we’re not divided.
Our past, our present, our future,
merge to meet us here.
– This in the clip that is really making the rounds
and I would argue has been more powerful
as the clip of Michelle Obama,
or first lady, former first lady, Michelle Obama.
What are your thoughts going into the last week here?
Give us your state of play around the race, Jess.
– So I’m actually not having a huge anxiety day.
So you caught me at a good moment
where I’m pretty optimistic about–
– So Xanax.
Xanax for precipice.
– I’m heavily drugged actually to get through this
just casually on a Monday.
So I’ve been trying to look at the actual data
versus the vibes and it’s interesting
because it’s the inverse of how we started out.
Remember that this was the vibes campaign, right?
We were all coconut-pilled.
Charlie XCX gave us Brat Summer
and everyone was riding high
on the fact that we felt like we had a chance.
And now we have a lot of information
from the ground of what’s going on
and Jenna Malley-Dell and the campaign manager
for Kamala’s campaign was on with Jen Psaki on Sunday.
And she said we knocked on 1.2 million doors
in battleground states on Saturday alone.
That is mind blowing.
How many people are out doing this?
And there are the Christine Baranskis of the world
who are showing up in people’s doors
and Bradley Whitford and all of that is great.
But there are just regular people
that are out there jazzed to be doing this
and there are Democrats doing it
and Republicans doing it.
And that’s giving me a lot of hope.
There was a pullout that was really positive
but I wanted to ask you about Beyonce,
I wish she had performed, that’s always the downer in this.
And of course you had 30,000 people
because people thought they were going to a Beyonce concert.
And I thought she was powerful and great
and revealed herself to have political messaging
that maybe we didn’t think that she had and I loved it.
But there was something that Michelle Obama said
that I feel like you probably wouldn’t have loved.
So the clip circulating about what the implications
of the Dove’s decision have obviously incredible
but she says to men that they need to take the lives
of the women, the lives of the women in their lives,
she said it more articulately than I did, seriously.
And it was in the same vein as when Obama kind of scolded
black men in Pennsylvania before he did his first big rally
for the campaign a few weeks back
when they got a lot of criticism for,
what did you make of that part of Michelle’s messaging?
– Oh, I absolutely loved it.
– You did, okay.
– Yeah, I’ve been thinking a lot about,
I’m writing a book on masculinity
and I’ve been thinking a lot about
what is an aspirational modern form of masculinity
and these words that come back to provider protector
and procreator when I think of protector,
I think, okay, at some point in your life,
first degree, second degree,
there’s going to be someone in your life
with an unplanned pregnancy.
And the notion that you don’t immediately go to protection
and think, all right, I want people in my life
to have options, ’cause the most mendacious thing
about this bodily autonomy argument
is that if you wanted to ensure it was rejected
and women had bodily autonomy,
all you would need to do is ensure
that the rule was absolute.
Because wealthy Americans and including wealthy Republicans
kind of know that if something,
if an unplanned pregnancy happens to them
or their niece or their daughter, they’ll figure it out.
Wealthy people will figure it out.
And that’s the most mendacious thing about this.
So this is really a war on poor women quite frankly,
poor families, 17 year old black woman who becomes pregnant
doesn’t have a lot of education, single parent,
maybe hides the pregnancy, doesn’t have resources,
can’t be shipped to Atlanta for to terminate the pregnancy,
doesn’t have access to medical abortion.
And her message was, if you’re a man, how I read it,
your job is to protect people,
maybe not even in your direct sphere.
That’s your job as a man.
You’re supposed to protect women.
And if you look at why women generally speaking,
and this is gonna sound sexist,
but there’s research to show this,
why they’re attracted to men
or one of the features they’re attracted to
is they want a man who physically, intellectually,
and financially gives them the impression
that when shit gets real, that man can protect them.
And this seems just at the very core of that.
The dude, yeah, think about your own economic well-being,
but your instinct, your muscle memory should be to protect.
And this is, you’re not protecting us right now.
By not showing up and pushing back on this,
you are not protecting us.
I thought that was the most powerful part of her speech.
– When I first heard it, I thought, yeah, exactly.
Especially having gone through two pregnancies recently
and given birth, it’s one of the most fragile
and frightening things you can do.
And you’re one step away from a medical emergency
for nine, 10 months straight.
And it is a miracle every time
that one of these babies is delivered safely
and that the mom is good and that the baby is good.
So I totally get that.
I just, I took a step back because we’re focused on getting
men to support the Democratic Party
in this last hustle here.
And I wondered about that kind of 28-year-old guy
who feels like the Democratic Party isn’t interested in him
or the 35-year-old guy or the 42,
whatever up to through Gen X,
like the Gen Zs and millennials.
And I didn’t know how that would sit with them.
I hope that they heard it the way that you did
because that’s how I did,
but I feel like I’m sometimes so clouded
by my own estrogen that perhaps I can’t see it clearly
anymore.
– Well, just the idea,
and I think it’s important to remind young men of this,
your ability to be a provider,
you wanna be impoverished for the rest of your life,
be the father of an unwanted pregnancy at a young age.
– Yeah.
– I mean, this affects you too,
just being selfish if you’re a young man.
One, you’re gonna have less sex
and less bodily autonomy is restored.
Think about the reason why, I mean, essentially,
men wanna spread their seed to the four corners of the earth
and women put up a much finer filter
to try and attract the smartest, strongest and fastest seed.
And I know that sounds reductive and crude,
but I have evidence to prove this.
And because of the downside of pregnancy
is so much greater for women than for men,
women are more selective when it comes
to random sexual encounters.
And if you ask young men,
would you rather have more or less random sexual encounters
that might turn into a relationship,
that might turn into a family,
that might turn into kids?
I gotta think 90 plus percent of young men would think,
yeah, I’d rather have more opportunity
for sexual encounters.
If women believe that the downside of pregnancy
might be they have to carry the baby to term or worse,
they end up in an emergency room parking lot
with sepsis because doctors are afraid to treat her,
you’re gonna have less sex men.
So I go to just very selfish reasons
why men should be fighting for Harris and bodily autonomy.
And I don’t think men have gotten,
have received the message.
The thing I wanted to get your impression for,
I love unexpected surprises.
And I’m, this is my new thesis
on what I think is going to play
a critical role in an election that no one saw coming.
The October surprise I think is here.
And it’s the following and I’d love to get your response.
– Tony Hencliffe, who I’d never heard of.
He’s an actor kind of made famous,
or excuse me, a comedian made famous by Joe Rogan,
address the audience at the Trump rally
in Madison Square Garden.
And let me start off with,
I was shocked by how many Trump supporters
they were able to turn out in Manhattan.
– You know there are trains to Long Island.
That take you right in.
– But it’s a big stadium and it was passionate.
– Yeah, of course.
– I thought in deep blue territory,
it was really impressive that they turned out
so many diehard, enthusiastic Trump supporters.
So this comedian goes on to basically say,
there is this 50 ton island of floating trash
in the Caribbean and it’s Puerto Rico.
– There’s literally a floating island of garbage
in the middle of the ocean right now.
Yeah, I think it’s called Puerto Rico.
– There are 400,000 Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania.
– I thought this comment was so,
not only did it not land,
and I think you gotta cut comedians a pretty wide berth.
I’m very forgiving of comedians,
but this seemed to illuminate the Trump DNA
in such a negative way.
And that clip has gone viral.
And if I’m a Puerto Rican who maybe was supporting Harris
but not that enthusiastic and wasn’t gonna turn out,
I think she might get an incremental 10 or 15,000 votes
in Pennsylvania, which might swing Pennsylvania,
which might swing the election.
I think Tony Hinchcliffe, and that’s his name, Hinchcliffe,
might be the October surprise
that Harris fans were looking for.
– So I was following along to the rally via acts,
driving back from seeing Disney Junior, the live show.
So we could talk about that another day.
– You know what, that would be a toss up for me,
a Trump rally or the Disney,
I really wouldn’t know what to do there.
– I struggled, hardcore struggled,
went down to kind of, to Red Bank, New Jersey,
total Trump country to see Disney Junior.
My daughter, looking like she stroked out
when she saw Minnie in person, which was adorable.
You know, the little kid dancing is so cute.
But anyway, I’m following along to this MSG hot mess.
And I too, I wasn’t surprised that he filled the arena,
but I was talking to friends who were in there,
including reporters who said, it’s super common here.
Everyone is really nice.
It feels quite joyous, celebratory of everything
that Donald Trump is as a showman and entertainer.
And I totally get it.
Like he’s a lifelong New Yorker, you come back,
you sell out the garden, I mean, not sell out,
but you know what I mean, you fill the garden.
And I had heard Tony Hinchcliffe before,
because he was part of Tom Brady’s roast.
And I thought he was hilarious, making fun of Tom Brady,
which is a little bit different
than making fun of Puerto Ricans like that.
And that was the first kind of set of clips
that really stood out to me as concerning
for the Trump campaign,
because you saw the immediate backlash.
So Bad Bunny was up right away,
I think it’s 45 million followers with a video
that Kamala had cut for Puerto Ricans, posted that,
then JLo, then Ricky Martin.
So within like 10 minutes, 115 million followers
had been activated against Donald Trump because of this clip.
And it was a reminder to a lot of people.
And I think Ricky Martin actually used
the old footage of Trump after Hurricane Maria,
where he showed up and he threw paper towels
at people who had just had their homes absolutely decimated.
And I thought, okay, this might be in your words,
the October surprise of it,
which is basically that Trump can never
just stick with a good thing.
Like people think you’re kind of human,
and that you kind of don’t think these things.
And because you wanna have the raunchiest
and the funniest guy here.
And by the way, First Amendment protected,
it was a joke, I didn’t find that funny.
I don’t think we should be policing comedians in any way.
But a comedy show and a political rally are very different.
And you can expect if there had been
a Comedians for Kamala event,
and you had John Mulaney up there,
he wasn’t going to be insulting people like that.
He’s gonna be making fun of himself.
Or even if you had someone more out there,
like Dave Chappelle or Bill Burr,
they might make a few policy jokes.
Like Bill Burr actually has this hilarious bit
that he does about abortion.
And he’s a pro-choice supporter,
but he basically talks about how it is murder.
And it’s like a half-baked pie.
He’s like, you’re not gonna say that it’s not a pie
just because you only half-baked it, right?
Like those are all things that I can get on board with,
but there’s no way that they would have
stepped over the line that far.
And then so you have the liberal supporters that come out.
But then you see the conservatives,
like Rick Scott, the senator from Florida
who is in a reelection battle,
immediately says this is not right.
This is not what I think of Puerto Ricans.
Puerto Ricans are great people.
You see other GOP officials.
We’re gonna talk a little bit
about down-ballot races towards the end of the podcast.
There’s a guy, Diaz Pizito, who’s out in Suffolk County.
He looks like he’s gonna lose his race,
a Republican former cop.
I think he was the only vulnerable Democrat
or only Republican congressman or woman from New York
who actually showed up at the rally.
He’s immediately has to say, what the F is this?
I don’t think this at all.
So I think it was a complete disaster,
not to mention then that, you know,
Steven Miller goes on to say,
America is for Americans and Americans only.
To really bring the messaging home.
But I’m sure that what felt like a joyous occasion
in the aftermath, you know,
the Trump campaign put out a statement
saying that it doesn’t reflect their views.
Well, I’m sorry, it’s pretty precisely your campaign’s views.
If you pick the guy and the joke
was loaded in the teleprompter, right?
He didn’t make this up.
He wasn’t riffing.
Yeah, I would fire a Harris.
I’d be taking some of that precious airtime
that they have blocked across every local news station
in kind of the full employment act
for local broadcast news stations
in Pennsylvania and the swing states.
And I would just be running that clip,
that this is what the Republican party thinks of,
thinks of our, you know,
brothers and sisters here in America.
That struck me as, wow, this can’t,
and this is a real,
this is a significant population.
And I would imagine that this qualifies as a population
that A might not be, is inclined to vote for Harris.
It strikes me, this is really fertile ground
and they’ve just given us,
as being Democrats of the Harris campaign,
a softball here.
I wonder if this is gonna be,
especially in Pennsylvania,
I had no idea, 400,000 Puerto Ricans.
We’ll be right back.
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– Thank you.
– Meanwhile, Trump is making his closing argument,
leaning heavily into a message of fear,
particularly around immigration.
He had a big rally, as we referenced at MSG,
with many of the same folks that appeared at the RNC.
He also went on Joe Rogan’s podcast,
which I thought was very smart on the part of their campaign,
which is huge as Rogan has 14 million Spotify followers.
This was, it felt like an attempt to appeal
to young, low propensity male voters.
Let’s listen to a clip.
– So I have a son who’s very smart and tall, Baron, right?
And he knows all about you.
He knows about guys I never heard of.
He said, “Dad, you don’t know how big they are, they’re big.”
You know, he said, “Who the hell is he?”
Like Ross, I did, he said, “Dad, he’s a great guy.”
I mean, guys said, “It’s a whole new world out there.”
It’s a different world. – But you know, I’m on TikTok now.
– Congratulations. – And I’ve done really well.
No, but do you know the crazy,
have you seen the numbers?
Billions, like billions of hits, it’s crazy.
– I’m sure TikTok’s a wild application.
– And I’ve gone up 30 points.
A Republican has always downed 30 with young people.
I’m plus 30.
And I’m on TikTok, it’s had a huge impact.
– Young people are rejecting a lot of this woke bullshit.
Young people are tired of being yelled at and scolded.
They’re tired of these people
that they think are mentally ill,
telling them what the moral standards
of society should be today.
And people are upset.
– Your thoughts, Jess?
– Well, it was three hours, so I have many thoughts.
I think net net a positive for him to do that.
Exposure is always a good thing,
especially when he’s weaving, I think that’s the term he likes.
At one point, Rogan is like,
“You gotta weave a little less.”
Right, like I am actually trying to ask you something here.
Obviously that stat he threw out is completely incorrect.
The final Harvard youth poll came out
and she’s up 30 with young voters to be expected.
And people should cross tab dive through the ABC poll
from the weekend, which was really good for her head,
her up four, but also performing better
with black men and Latino men than Biden did even.
So we’ll see if that ends up checking out.
But one thing that Rogan did that I admired him for,
and I also thought that the venue was so perfect
for him to do this because it was not adversarial at all.
He called him out on the BS
about winning the 2020 election in a direct way,
but also a comforting way.
So that Trump didn’t feel like he was being accused
of something necessarily.
Rogan just said, “Are you ever gonna show us
“what you’re talking about?”
And that’s always been the problem
that they tell this grand story of stolen votes
and all these poll workers that were cheating
and all of the inaccuracies and the frauds and blah, blah, blah.
And they’ve never shown anything.
And people who have gone to jail will go to jail for that.
I mean, Rudy Giuliani owns nothing anymore.
Those election workers in Georgia
own his apartment on the Upper East Side
as a result of all of this.
So I really appreciated that Rogan did that.
And he said in his interview that the negotiations
with Kamala’s team are still alive,
whereas Kamala’s spokesperson said that it was a no-go,
said it was due to scheduling.
So I mean, obviously that’s not the case.
And I assume that she wanted some guardrails
that he wouldn’t offer,
but I think she totally should do it.
– She should have done it 100%.
– Like what could happen to you?
Is it could it be worse than losing the election?
I don’t know, that seems like the worst.
– No, and he’s, as an interviewer,
one thing I do like about Rogan
is when I started podcasting,
I was used to think it was my job to have a gotcha moment.
And then I realized Sam Harris said something
that always struck me that
he tries to present people in their best light.
And I try and do that now.
And I actually think Rogan does that, he’ll push back.
But he doesn’t try and have a gotcha moment.
Like Brett Baer was trying to corner her.
He started with some, he was trying to,
he had questions that were gotcha questions
with a follow-up and thinking she would respond this way.
And quite frankly, CNN does the same thing to candidates
who are from the right, he doesn’t do that.
She would have come out of this much more positive
and as we’ve said, Trump going on Rogan reached more people
than if he had gone on primetime CNN, MSNBC and Fox
every night, every week night for a week.
I mean, this guy, it really has changed
the complexion of the media landscape is these podcasts.
I think it’s a huge mistake
for her not to have done that.
And then I had this weird triggering moment
when I was in that clip and that is he described his son,
he said, “So I have a son who’s very smart and tall.”
And I thought, as a father, I would just never end tall.
Like, who cares?
That is like the last way I would describe my son.
I wouldn’t-
– Well, he’s obsessed with physicality.
– It’s just so weird to say that, you know, I have-
– I mean, he’s like six, nine, he’s like really tall.
– It’d be cooler if he was a basketball player
and you say, “Oh, he’s really tall, he’s a basketball player.”
– Yeah, and he’s at NYU and I’m happy he’s there.
I hope he has a wonderful experience.
But I thought this guy just his approach to fathering.
I just found it’s so weird that dad would describe
his son that way.
Anyways.
– Can I just quickly, before we get off this?
So he, I mean, three hours again,
a lot of opportunity to weave,
but he did a lot of historical stuff.
So he was wrong about which son of Lincoln’s died,
but he’s talking about like McKinley
and origins of tariffs.
And I couldn’t really follow a ton of it,
but I wonder if that does make a low information voter
think this guy knows more about what he’s talking about
than he actually does,
that you can even like throw these names into it.
Cause you know how sometimes when you’re so overwhelmed
and the zone is so proverbially flooded by things,
that you just hear a few things
and you assume that someone gets it
or knows what they’re talking about.
– Look, I hate to admit it.
I didn’t listen all three hours.
And that’s the reason I don’t listen
to Rogan or Lex Friedman.
And they’re kind of the original gangsters.
They’re both fantastic at what they do.
And I’ve said, despite that,
I don’t agree with a lot of Joe’s comments.
Every podcaster should send a royalty into Rogan
because he’s kind of busted open the medium.
But on the whole, that was a big win for him
because putting him in a relaxed atmosphere,
he, it softens his image and he needs that right now.
He comes across as the kind of guy,
at least I thought Trump came across as the kind of guy.
One, I thought he came across as old and age old
and not having any sense of history
or clearly has not only doesn’t fact check himself,
but doesn’t think anyone’s gonna fact check him
that will have any importance.
That he can just say whatever he wants.
But he came across as a guy you could grab a beer with.
He came across, in my opinion, is more likable.
He did at one point kind of laugh at himself.
The data itself or the historical inaccuracies
were just everywhere, but it doesn’t seem to matter.
And Van Jones had kind of the right,
I mean, and Michelle Obama brought it up as well,
but Van Jones did it first on CNN.
You know, he’s lawless and she’s expected to be flawless.
This is the mother of all grading on a curve
that is entirely different.
It is just, I mean, everyone is waiting.
And again, Michelle was so powerful.
Everyone’s waiting to parse every word she says
on an interview.
And then he gets up and says shit
that’s just blatantly wrong and weird and never happened
or goes off on a crazy tangent or says,
I don’t wanna answer questions, let’s listen to music.
If she did any of the things he does in any interview,
it would be like, Democrats in the press would be like,
oh my God, she’s lost it, she’s lost.
The Harris campaign is absolutely screwed up.
Absolutely screwed up not going on Rogan.
It would have been a huge win for the last thing
he was gonna do would be to go after
the Democratic female candidate of color.
He just wouldn’t have gone there.
And in general, Joe does try to give people
some running room and give them, in my opinion,
he gives them too much the benefit of the doubt.
When he brings on a total fucking quack
to say that mRNA vaccines all to your DNA,
he doesn’t say, well, is there any peer-reviewed research
that says there’s any veracity to that statement?
I don’t know if you knew this actually pulled my pilot
office spotify for a year.
I was so triggered by the whole thing.
But anyways, enough virtue signaling.
I think it was a win for him.
I think it was a win for him.
– Definitely and a good part of the closing argument,
which obviously the MSG rally was
and Kamala will be doing this speech at the ellipse
at clearly making, you know, protecting democracy
at the core of her clothes.
I personally would have preferred her to go
to an auto factory in Michigan or even a hospital,
you know, to talk about healthcare,
the people who really keep the country going.
But obviously this is a calculated decision
that they’ve made.
I think that those persuadable right-leaning Indies
and Republicans are more into protecting democracy.
But what do you think about that?
– I think you’re absolutely right.
I think one of the biggest mistakes we as Democrats
keep making is that we keep thinking if we keep talking
about what’s wrong with him, it’ll work.
That strategy has not worked.
She needs to talk about what’s right with her.
And that is the policy around Medicare,
such that your parents can die at home,
the policies around lack of tariffs,
the first home buyers.
She needs to play offense around why you should vote for me
as opposed to why you should not vote for him.
I agree with you.
She should have made an economic argument at the end
and talk about her policy.
The other kind of news,
and I’ll obviously give you my view up front,
I don’t think it’s big news, if you will,
is last week Trump’s longest serving chief of staff,
retired Marine General, John Kelly,
told The New York Times that in his view,
Trump would govern like a dictator if reelected.
Let’s listen to some of the audio that was released.
– Do you think he’s a fascist?
– Well, I’m looking at the definition of fascism.
It’s a far-right authoritarian,
ultra-nationalist political ideology movement
characterized by a dictatorial leader,
centralized hypocrisy, militarism,
forcible suppression of opposition,
belief in a natural social hierarchy.
So certainly, in my experience,
those are the kinds of things that he’s worked with work
that are in terms of running America.
– Well, I have a couple of questions here if you just.
First is, I would not agree with General Kelly’s policies,
I would bet, but it’s just weird.
We can’t get guys like that to run for president.
I mean, it’s clearly just so knowledgeable
and thoughtful and measured.
Do you think this is damaging for Trump
that Kelly has come out and said this?
– I think it’s always a problem
if somebody that respected,
and we should be honest about this.
I mean, Trump’s team, the ones who are still loyal to him,
have come out and say he hated him from the start.
He has always been insubordinate,
which is probably a four-star Marine general insubordinate,
but that he had an axe to grind and this is all made up
and has gotten a lot of quite credible people actually
to disparage Mark Milley and John Kelly.
But I think it can’t ever be good for you
that you have people on the record.
And this isn’t the Murmurs campaign anymore.
John Kelly sat down with Michael Schmidt at the times
and said this stuff on audio
and Kamala can use it in that way
and that can make it even more powerful
because I mean, this was a fight I was having on the five
with my colleagues on Friday about the fascism thing.
They said, she’s calling him a fascist.
I said, no, John Kelly in his voice is calling him a fascist.
And I do think if these late breakers,
the only undecideds left are people
that are partial to this argument
that this guy doesn’t care about the constitution.
He doesn’t care how you vote.
And there’s a ton of evidence
that what they are doing right now,
even in like what Tucker Carlson said in the MSG rally,
that they are making it seem as though his win
is so clearly ordained that anything but a Trump victory
will be fraud and that you will have to rise up
to take your country back.
The groundwork for that is happening.
And I think we’ve been talking on this for weeks.
That’s part of the complacency as well
with the get out the vote operation.
You know, giving it to Scott Pressler and Charlie Kirk.
You know, we’re knocking on a million doors
and they’re listening to Rogan.
It’s a very different world
in terms of how this is campaigning.
So not, not I think it’s always bad to be called a fascist,
but I do think it stands that people,
it’s your hard press to move people
about how they feel about Donald Trump at this point.
– The Trump campaign responded by calling Kelly’s claims,
debunked story is an accusing him
of having Trump arrangement syndrome.
By the way, I’ve been called to,
I’ve been accused of that a lot.
Do you get accused of that?
– Yeah, I have TDS so bad.
– Yeah, everywhere, everywhere.
Do I need antibiotics anyways?
– No, leptards will be fine.
Don’t worry. – There you go.
Meanwhile, Harris sees the moment
to focus on democracy targeting Republicans
who may be wavering on Trump.
I personally, unfortunately,
I think this is a big nothing burger.
I think people are so used to,
I think four of his 44 former secretaries
or cabinet members are supporting him.
The notion that these people folks aren’t supporting him
is something that’s already been absorbed
into the ecosystem.
I thought the most interesting part of this is
I like a sexy Jake Tapper, I like him salty.
Did you see him with Senator Vance?
– Yeah, and Mike Johnson the weekend before.
– Yeah, he was not taking it from Senator Vance.
I thought, I’m really like, I’m like, Jake,
you big slice of man.
I thought he had some of that, like Tom Selleck fire in him.
I’m like, put a mustache on the guy and,
my gosh, what did you think of that?
Did you, what did you think of that interview?
– I thought it was great.
And I mean, when it’s so clear now
that the only way to be able to do this effectively
is to use their own words against them
or people’s own words.
Like Mike Johnson the weekend before,
you know, Trump does the Arnold Palmer’s
big downstairs thing.
And Mike Johnson was like,
I don’t know what you’re trying to do.
Tapper’s like, okay, well, I’ll just play it for you.
Right, you just sit there
and I will just play this for you.
Just to watch people squirm.
I think almost the optics of it,
oftentimes matter more than the words
where you see how visibly uncomfortable.
And you remember back to the early days of Trump,
even with people like Ted Cruz, right?
Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham, where they just can’t,
like their skin is crawling
and you can see it under their suits, right?
Like trying to be freed from how bad this is.
So I think it’s a very effective way to interview
and what you should be doing.
I mean, Brett did it with Kamala.
He did it with Trump last year or two years ago
and he said, here’s everything that people who worked
for you said about you.
How do you explain that?
Can they all be wrong?
To your point that only four are still supporting him.
But with eight days left,
I worry that nothing matters, except knocking on doors
and doing souls to the polls
and making sure that you’re energizing
the communities that need to turn out.
And Kamala spent all day yesterday in Philadelphia.
She went to church there.
She crisscrossed throughout all the neighborhoods
some very emotional and sweet scenes
of women embracing her and crying.
You know, feeling like it’s not going to be okay
this time around, especially because he’s a lame duck, right?
Like there’s no third Trump term.
Well, I mean, knock on wood, whatever.
Liz Cheney would say would probably try to find a way.
But people have this feeling of desperation
that there will be no guardrails
and you will get no John Kelly’s
that will work for him again.
– Mark Milley is sipping coronas on a beach somewhere, right?
He’s like, I am done with this.
And so who will staff this government?
You see even Miller and Tony Hinchcliffe?
– Yeah, it’s a, I agree with you.
I think at this point it’s,
I love that souls to the polls, feet on the street,
if you will. – Yep.
– All right, Jess, let’s take a quick break.
Stay with us.
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(gentle music)
– Welcome back.
So far, we’ve focused mostly on the presidential race,
but control of the House and Senate is also on the line,
and could have a huge impact on whoever wins the presidency.
Let’s dive into the Senate.
Do you think that Democrats can hold onto the Senate?
Which key races are you watching?
– So no, I don’t.
I’m resigned to it.
John Tester is fabulous, but feels a little done,
even with that crazy story that Chi,
who is running against, lied about where he got shot.
He said he got shot in Afghanistan,
but it was actually in a parking lot,
like outside of a national park.
Which you would think would be completely upending.
– Right, yeah, that’s kind of a key feature of being shot.
I was shot in combat, no, I was shot in the parking lot.
– Right, and we’re talking about Tim Walz
and the stolen baller, right?
Of not filling out the right paperwork on time.
One of the races I’m really interested too, on the Senate.
So Colin Allred has been running a fantastic campaign,
and I feel like we say this regularly,
like this might be the time we get rid of Ted Cruz.
And I don’t really think that,
but Colin Allred is doing so much better
than Beto did with this.
I mean, I think it’s also just who he is,
lands better with people.
And he’s taking on the culture war stuff so brilliantly.
I don’t know if I mentioned on the podcast before,
but he cut an ad saying he’s not for trans women
and women sports.
He’s just like, I played professional football.
This is ludicrous.
Ted Cruz is trying to say this about us.
And a fun fact actually, the number one issue
that Trump has been advertising on is anti-trans issues.
The economy in number five, trans stuff, number one.
So clearly they think they can win a culture war election.
But Colin Allred is within striking distance.
Some polls like two, three points behind.
Big deal, Kamala is there.
He showed up at that rally, spoke as well.
So Beyonce Allred and Kamala,
do you think there’s any shot
or we just keep fantasizing about a world without Ted Cruz?
– Well, the survey conducted by the New York Times
and Santa College shows that Cruz leads with 50% support
to 46 for Allred.
So it’s technically still in the margin of error,
but it feels marginable that,
or there’s a marginal shot here for Allred.
I, Cruz, this strikes me as the vampire of the Senate.
It just, we can’t kill the guy.
And he just feels Texas seems to like him.
And the thing is, if Allred loses,
my sense is Allred has ran almost a near perfect campaign.
The few times I have seen clips,
I’ve thought, wow, is this guy good?
And Cruz just looks so off his game,
like trying to respond to these things.
He’s put them on his heels every time they get together.
He’s had a central casting.
He’s thoughtful.
He comes across.
I would have thought that it,
the bottom line is if Allred can’t be Cruz,
I’m not sure, I think people are just gonna give up.
I think people are gonna,
Democrats are gonna wait till he dies
’cause I think he’s run a great campaign.
– Or he just needs a bigger podcast deal.
The guy wants to be Joe Rogan
more than he wants to be a senator.
The other race I wanna talk about,
and I think if you don’t know about this guy,
you are going to love him so much
is what’s going on in Nebraska.
So there’s an independent guy named Dan Osborne.
He is a veteran.
He was a labor leader, a mechanic who was running.
He has been a registered independent in his whole life,
Deb Fischer, sitting Republican Senator, two term.
Dan Osborne in the New York Times,
Seattle poll from Monday is within two points of doing this.
Now Mitch McConnell last minute is having to send in
a ton of money, but Dan Osborne, I loved this quote.
And I thought like, does this guy listen to Scott
or does Scott listen to this guy?
He says, you know what I think it’s going to do?
This is if he wins.
If Nebraska does the right thing
and it’ll lack some mechanic to the halls of power,
the rest of the country is gonna say, holy crap,
did you see what Nebraska did?
And it’s going to tell people who are nurses, teachers,
plumbers, carpenters, bus drivers, other mechanics
that you don’t have to be a self-funding crypto billionaire
to run for office.
– Yeah, he’s very strong.
That might be the best.
I’ve already decided that the morning of the sixth,
I’m just gonna keep refreshing the results
on Lake Gallegos just for my own, just to make myself
feel better. – Just to feel good, yeah.
– Just to feel good ’cause it looks like,
it looks like she’s on her way to the feet.
– Yeah, well we’re in Gallegos run an amazing campaign too.
We should, I mean, he’s running against a lunatic,
but he’s done a good job like all right as well.
– I think he’s run a competent campaign.
She will lose this election.
I mean, A, she’s not qualified,
and B, she’s batched crazy.
But anyways, that would be the race you mentioned
in Nebraska, that would be super exciting.
I’m really disappointed about Senator Tester.
I think he’s been a really solid.
I think he’s done a great job of, again, another moderate
where there’s just no home for this person.
I think he’s done a fantastic job
and has really been a great senator.
So let’s get right to it.
So we talked a little bit about the Senate.
What do you think about Congress?
– My association, I’m knocking on wood.
I don’t know if this is real wood or fake wood,
but I knocked on it, is that we’ll take the house back.
And it’s cool to be in New York,
even though I went and voted on our first day
of early voting on Saturday.
Got my kids those future voter stickers.
But my seat, doesn’t matter.
I’m in Dan Goldman’s territory,
but a few really exciting races in New York.
Arguably, we’re the ones that lost it a couple of years ago
when George Santos was even able to take a seat.
So I already mentioned Anthony Giasposito,
who’s running, I think it’s New York four.
He is down.
He hired his mistress and his fiance’s daughter to work.
I think both of them in the same office are very strange.
– At the same time?
– I think so.
– Pretty warm, huh?
Oh, that’s wrong.
That was wrong.
– Yeah, that was wrong.
I actually was gonna try to gloss over it,
but you repeated it twice.
So he seems to be down pretty significantly.
Mike Lawler and Mondair Jones,
that’s an interesting race that has a blackface component
from Mike Lawler dressing up as Michael Jackson,
Mondair Jones, part of the squad.
So that tension going on.
John Avlon running out in the nice, fancy part of the Hamptons
and then also more rural Suffolk County has been fascinating.
He was down only four in the latest polling
and Mark Molinaro upstate.
He only won by 6,000 votes as a Republican.
So there’s potential to take that back
and that’s a rematch as well.
– Yeah, it’s gonna be, does it give you any comfort?
And I don’t wanna be a defeatist,
but say Trump does emerge as the victor here.
Given the map, which was terrible for Democrats this election
and would be much better in 2026
and given that traditionally a midterm election
typically swings way back towards the party
that didn’t win the presidency,
given that it’ll probably be kind of a pretty wonderfully
intransigent government,
which is the reason we have three branches
regardless of what happens.
Do you think Democrats would have any comfort
knowing that most likely 2026
might be a pretty good opportunity
to take back control of the Senate and the House
if there’s a Trump victory?
– I mean, sure.
Yeah, like you’re really grasping at straws.
I don’t think that you can say to any Democrat
with a week out, like will this make you feel better
if Donald Trump is the president?
No, nothing will make me feel better
at least for a really long time.
Winning is great.
I would love to have the opportunity to take back the Senate.
I hope that it’s just a small margin in their side
and that they need JD Vance to be breaking all the ties
and things like that.
But no, I think that people have woken up.
Do you remember, as recline reported,
after he did the first shot across Biden’s bow
where he said, “You should go out then.
We had the State of the Union.”
And then he said, “Oh, maybe I was wrong.”
Then he was like, “Oh, I saw the debate.
I definitely was right.”
But he said that he was getting the sense
that Democrats actually weren’t that scared
about another Trump term.
That there was a lot of bluster,
but in reality, they’d worked with him before.
And there even Bob Casey and Tammy Baldwin
have cut ads talking about working with Trump,
which obviously signals that they are in A, tight races,
but B, that they don’t think
that this is absolutely the end of the world.
I feel like the energy now is where it should be
and that people aren’t being as lax
as they were about the Trump threat.
Do you feel like the energy is at the level
that it should be?
– So this goes into,
I mean, we have to have a,
each of us has to have a prediction here
or something resembling a prediction
and more so than our prediction for the candidate.
What is the underlying element
or the surprise that might happen here?
And I think the energy is very positive
for Harris right now other than,
in this confirmation bias, full disclosure,
there are 10 more, 10 X the number of feet on the street
getting people to the polls,
Democrats versus Republicans.
This election is becoming so tight
and the geographic coverage is so tiny
in terms of what’s going to decide this.
It isn’t even a small number of swing states.
It’s a small number of swing counties
that I think those feet on the street,
this might be the election of podcasts
and of feet of the most analog thing ever.
And that is knocking on a door
and saying the election is today,
have you voted or it’s tomorrow, have you voted?
I remember when I was in San Francisco,
they somehow knew I hadn’t voted
and they knocked on my door three times.
I mean, they literally shamed me.
I was going to vote,
but they shamed me until like they kept showing up saying,
they haven’t voted yet.
– Now is the time.
– Yeah, let’s go now.
Do you want to go now?
Here’s some coffee.
Can I hold your hand?
– Yeah.
– You know, and I do think that that might carry us over.
And then my, and I’ll turn this back to you.
And then the other thing
that I think is the October surprise here,
I think you’re going to hear the name Tony Hinchcliffe
a lot more in the next eight days
and 400,000 Puerto Ricans
in the swing state can’t feel good
about the Republican party right now.
I saw this thing and I thought, wow, that is just,
comedy is the art or art is the ability
to get away with it, to say something.
And I try to do this.
You try to do it occasionally on the five with humor
and that is to say something that is pushes the envelope
but you soften the beach with comedy.
And this was the art of not getting away with it.
He said something blatantly racist and it fell so flat.
It didn’t land so hard
that it was the worst of all worlds for them.
It feeds exactly into the fear people have
about this administration.
And clearly nobody did the math and said,
you realize this is a big constituency
in the most important state.
So my prediction is that I do like what Michelle Obama said
about men need to move to protection
and are you there to protect us
to the feet on the street?
And three, I think this Tony Hinchcliffe debacle might,
if it gets 3,000 people,
I mean, that’s literally what we’re down to at this point.
I think those three things are going to potentially,
I’m predicting this is not only gonna be a win for Harris,
it’s gonna be a decisive win.
And that is a huge proximity bias.
This is me trying to tell myself,
I think I can, I think I can.
I’m a brave strong,
when you see those TikToks of the four-year-old girl
jumping off something and she’s like, I am courageous,
I’m strong, I mean, this is me trying to keep myself saying,
but that’s my prediction.
What are your thoughts eight days out?
– So I am, like I said, I’m having a more optimistic day
and my emotions are all over the place
not to be too female about it.
Unsurprisingly, I have highs and lows
and it usually depends on my blood sugar.
– We have those too.
– No, I know.
– I just turned to alcohol, but anyways, go ahead.
– Yeah, I’m trying to avoid that.
It’s just not great taking care of a baby that way,
but we could get there.
My prediction is that the shy voter of this election
is the right-leaning person.
It’s not the Trump voter that we had in 2016
and to a lesser degree in 2020,
but the right-leaning person
who casts a country over party vote.
And there’s been a lot of very good journalism
from interviews about how many people are saying,
I just can’t do it.
I just can’t vote for him in this scenario.
I don’t love her.
I don’t necessarily think that I know her that well.
And it does keep coming up consistently
that not having a good answer on immigration,
even if immigration is not your big issue,
is something that is very bothersome to people.
And for me, die hard down.
I feel that way as well.
I don’t know how they haven’t figured out
something better to say about that,
but that people are just gonna go in the voting booth
and quietly do their business and vote for Kamala.
Kind of what Brett Stevens articulated
in his, you know, in the conversation
with Gail Collins last weekend when he said it.
So I think that in general,
a black and Latino men in particular
will quote unquote come home.
That Trump will perform better than he did before,
but it won’t be these kinds of huge realignments
that we had been seeing.
But Kamala wins.
There will be a much needed autopsy
on who the Democratic Party is,
because if we manage to pull this off,
if she does win,
because we will have won this on the votes of people
who are not ours for future elections.
If they were on a normal Republican again,
you know, if it’s Glenn Youngkin or somebody,
they’re not with us anymore.
And we need to do a lot of, you know,
good, long-hard thinking about how we have been messaging
to men, to minority voters, in some cases, even to women.
You should always have the highest goals possible.
And I think that I don’t wanna let, you know,
perfect be the enemy of the good.
I hope that we have done good enough,
but Liz Cheney is a rental.
We do not own Liz Cheney.
And I think about that a lot.
– It’s funny ’cause I think if Trump wins,
the Republican Party is literally gonna need
to be totally reconfigured.
– That’s what my husband says.
He’s like, it needs to be blown up.
– Where are they?
– Yeah.
– They would literally have to go.
They’re like, okay, the verdict is in.
There’s no, you know,
turning chicken shit into chicken salad here.
This guy is basically taking the Republican Party down.
When a lot of their issues seem to resonate
and like we kicked out all the old line Republicans,
what is the new, who are the new Republicans?
– It’s J.D. Vance.
Then J.D. Vance really is the future of the party.
– That’s really interesting.
That’s really interesting.
So I wanna read some, just as we wrap up here,
I just wanna read some of your quotes.
I’m there to represent at least of the voting public,
the majority of Americans, Ms. Tarlow said over
a recent breakfast, we, she meant Democrats in 2020,
got 81 million votes.
There are more of me than there are of them.
Her goal, she said, is to inject a Democratic perspective
into the Fox bloodstream while showing viewers
that ideological foes can still get along.
I also wanna win elections, said Ms. Tarlow,
who got her start in politics working for Douglas Shown,
Shane Shown, Shown a Democratic pollster.
And I think that being on the most watched show
is the best place to be.
And then you literally, at some point,
I mean, I do, I really do like you.
So I just kept smiling. – Using my mom wrote it.
– Oh my God. – I got a lot of texts
like that, like did Judy write this?
– Jesus. – Yeah.
– It’s just– – But that’s,
I don’t know, I’ve made this case
and I think I’ve persuaded you a bit about it.
You know, the undecideds are the ones watching Fox
and that is an important reason to be there.
But people want to tune in to see real conversation
and to your souls to the polls point.
There are more of us.
I feel like we run as if there are only like 10 of us
and there are a cajillion of them.
There are more people that agree with our point of view.
So we should be a little bit louder about it
and have better media strategy, which we do not.
I mean, the right crushes us in terms of that,
even though we quote unquote own the culture.
– No, this thing, yeah, I just can’t get over this.
Even that picture, that’s a, I don’t know if I like–
– I mean, it’s a lot of hair and makeup, but–
– I don’t know if the orange tank pantsuit
is what I would have gone with.
– Really? – That is literally,
I mean, you look great, but I’m not sure
what that color– – So then don’t bring me down, man.
That was a great suit.
That is a pastel power suit, if there ever was one.
– That is a Secretary Clinton suit.
– Well, you know how I feel about her, 3D printed doll.
Your profile was insanely nice, too.
– Oh, mine was a headpiece compared to this thing.
Literally, this is, if you ever run for president,
this will be seen as like the launch article.
Oh my gosh, anyways, with that, we’re gonna wrap up here.
That’s all for this episode.
If you have not read this article
and you wanna see what it’s like,
what a puff piece is like,
from everyone’s new favorite Democrat, Jess Tarlov.
Go and just type in the New York Times out, type in Tarlov,
that’s T-A-R-L-O-V, and you’re gonna see
what it’s like to be on the receiving end.
– And how good the suit is.
Also, the 27th was our one year anniversary
when we were on Marr together.
And this piece came out that day.
– I’m so glad you remembered.
– I’m so glad you remembered.
– My husband did, weirdly.
He’s like, “We were on Marr week.”
He didn’t say we, he does not think we.
He said, “We were out in LA for Marr
“and you met Scott a year ago, today.”
– There you go, it’s our one year anniversary, Jess.
– Yeah, it’s been amazing.
– Who would have thought we’d be here
making probably incorrect predictions about all things.
– Yeah, Trump’s definitely gonna win.
– Yeah.
– Yeah, I’m gonna say.
All right, that’s it.
That’s all for this episode.
Thank you for listening to Raging Moderates.
Our producers are Caroline Shagren and David Toledo.
Our technical directors, Drew Burroughs.
You can find Raging Moderates on its own feed every Tuesday.
That’s right, Raging Moderates has its own feed.
Please follow us wherever you get your podcasts.
Jess, have a great rest of the week.
– You too.
– Stay stable.
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(upbeat music)
Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov dive into the final week of the campaign season. They discuss Kamala Harris’s star-studded rallies aimed at energizing voters, and Donald Trump’s push to engage younger male voters, including his recent appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast. They also look at Trump’s former Chief of Staff John Kelly’s warning about a potential second Trump term and examine the down-ballot races that could decide control of Congress.
Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov.
Follow Prof G, @profgalloway.
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