Apple’s Future Under Trump, Voter Turnout in the 2024 Election, and Scott’s Writing Advice

AI transcript
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0:02:05 Welcome to The Proficent Pod’s Office Hours.
0:02:07 This is the part of the show where we answer questions
0:02:10 about business, big tech, entrepreneurship and whatever else is on your mind.
0:02:12 If you’d like to submit a question,
0:02:15 please email a voice recording to officehours@proficentmedia.com.
0:02:18 Again, that’s officehours@proficentmedia.com.
0:02:20 So, with that, first question.
0:02:24 Hey, Prof. G, this is Daniel from Chicago.
0:02:29 And I have a question for you about Apple and tech regulation
0:02:31 in the new Trump era.
0:02:34 So, the price of Apple products,
0:02:38 if these Trump tariffs he talks about go into effect
0:02:40 with the products coming out of China.
0:02:44 Now, could Apple decide to self-regulate
0:02:46 and start to impose age-gating
0:02:48 as kind of a way to counter these things?
0:02:50 I also think this might be an opportunity
0:02:53 for them to kind of stick it to meta in another way.
0:02:57 So, your thoughts on Apple and self-regulation?
0:03:01 Self-regulation is nothing but an attempt to create a prophylactic
0:03:05 in the 11th hour hoping that if you make a peace offering,
0:03:05 it won’t be as bad.
0:03:09 There is zero self-regulation as far as I can tell.
0:03:13 I’ve always been a fan of Apple, but let’s be honest.
0:03:19 Tim Cook and Senator Pichai are really likeable,
0:03:21 but they’re really likeable crack dealers
0:03:22 outside of junior high school.
0:03:26 Oxford just came out with a study showing a linear correlation
0:03:29 between social media use and depression,
0:03:32 anxiety, and eating disorders and self-harm among teenagers.
0:03:33 Let me repeat that.
0:03:37 Social media use is directly correlated
0:03:40 to self-harm, anxiety, depression, and self-harm.
0:03:42 So, is it Mark Zuckerberg’s fault?
0:03:46 Yeah, but also the person delivering and selling
0:03:50 this crack cocaine or these opiates or this meth
0:03:53 is in fact Google and Apple.
0:03:56 They’re the ones that could probably more easily
0:03:57 agegate their products.
0:04:00 There’s no reason any 14-year-old should have a smartphone.
0:04:02 There’s no reason anyone under the age of 16
0:04:03 should be on social media.
0:04:07 We’re starting to see real pushback from the private sector.
0:04:09 I would say the public private sector,
0:04:11 specifically schools that are starting to ban phones,
0:04:14 mostly because my colleagues break through seminal
0:04:17 landmark work, the anxious generation.
0:04:18 You’re seeing entire countries.
0:04:20 I think New Zealand has banned phones in schools.
0:04:23 It’s just a talk everywhere, banning phones in schools.
0:04:25 And as someone who’s a father of two sons,
0:04:28 spare me your bullshit that it’s about parenting, it’s not.
0:04:30 If you have kids, they’re going to be on social media
0:04:32 because when they’re not on social media,
0:04:33 they actually end up more depressed.
0:04:35 And the depressed kids on social media
0:04:38 because they’re ostracized and they feel alone.
0:04:41 I don’t think there’s going to be any self-regulation here.
0:04:42 I think that you’re going to see.
0:04:44 I mean, they might do it to try and stave off
0:04:47 more punitive regulation, but be clear,
0:04:49 if we’re waiting for the better angels to show up,
0:04:50 you’re going to, I don’t know,
0:04:53 you might as well wait for autonomous Tesla.
0:04:57 Anyways, in terms of tariffs, Tim Cook has been very savvy.
0:05:02 Trump seems to have a soft spot for Cook.
0:05:06 He was able to avoid the majority of tariffs
0:05:08 on most of its products during the first Trump presidency.
0:05:10 How, back during Trump’s first term,
0:05:12 Apple CEO Tim Cook convinced the White House
0:05:13 to keep most of Apple’s products,
0:05:16 including iPhones, off the tariff list.
0:05:17 That makes sense, no.
0:05:19 Even though most are made in China,
0:05:22 he argued that tariffs would end up raising prices on products,
0:05:24 including smartphones, tablets, and computers,
0:05:26 which would hurt Apple and some of its tech peers.
0:05:27 The White House seemed to agree.
0:05:31 And he’s right, but why do you have tariffs on fucking anything?
0:05:33 The argument that Tim Cook made could be made
0:05:35 for any toy, any piece of clothing, anything.
0:05:37 This is nothing but a tax on consumers,
0:05:39 except Tim and Apple are cool.
0:05:43 And I think Trump liked hanging out with Tim Cook
0:05:45 and thought, “No, Apple’s kind of apply,
0:05:46 and I want to be with the cool kids.”
0:05:47 Makes no sense.
0:05:51 Now things could possibly change with Trump’s second term.
0:05:51 I doubt it.
0:05:54 Trump has talked about putting a 10 to 20% tariff on imported goods
0:05:58 with a 60% higher tariff on imports from China.
0:06:00 Good fucking luck is all I have to say with that.
0:06:03 First off, the reason why I don’t think
0:06:04 tariffs are going to come through
0:06:07 or be levied to nearly the extent
0:06:09 that Trump has been blustering about.
0:06:12 First off, for Apple, economists estimate
0:06:14 that if Trump implemented new tariffs on goods made in China,
0:06:18 the price of your next $1,000 iPhone would cost an extra $300.
0:06:19 If you want to see people get really angry
0:06:23 before they start self-cutting or throwing up their lunch,
0:06:25 raise their iPhone price $300.
0:06:27 But some experts think it’s possible
0:06:29 that the next White House will skip tariffs
0:06:31 on smartphones, computers, and tablets again.
0:06:33 Also, many companies have successfully shifted
0:06:35 some of their marketing to other countries
0:06:36 to steer clear of the higher tariffs
0:06:37 on products made in China.
0:06:39 In fact, Apple is one of them.
0:06:42 Apple, you got to think, in every goddamn meeting,
0:06:44 he’s like diversify away from China.
0:06:46 Oh, factoring India?
0:06:47 Yeah, sure, we’ll do that.
0:06:48 Factoring Mexico?
0:06:50 Hundred percent.
0:06:52 Also, one of the reasons I don’t think these tariffs
0:06:53 are going to have nearly the traction,
0:06:55 he’s hoping, is a couple things.
0:06:57 One, Republicans do get the economy.
0:07:00 Oftentimes, they get it more than Democrats.
0:07:02 And you’re going to see a lot of Republicans
0:07:03 grow up backbone and say,
0:07:05 if you put these kind of tariffs on this,
0:07:07 you’re going to raise 88% of toys
0:07:09 under the Christmas tree come from China.
0:07:10 What happens when everyone’s Christmas
0:07:13 gets 20% more expensive for people with kids?
0:07:16 You’re going to see a number of Republicans
0:07:17 break from the administration.
0:07:21 Because one, they understand economics.
0:07:22 They like populist arguments.
0:07:24 And also, also what people aren’t talking about.
0:07:28 In a couple weeks, President Trump is a lame duck.
0:07:29 He can’t run again.
0:07:31 He can’t boot people out of office.
0:07:33 He can probably boot them out of office
0:07:37 if they’re up for reelection in the House in 2026.
0:07:39 But other than that, he’s not going to carry
0:07:41 the kind of valarium steel he’s had all along.
0:07:44 He’s been able to make or break careers pretty soon.
0:07:47 He’s going to be kind of Joe Biden on his way out
0:07:50 and not be able to intimidate nearly as many Republicans.
0:07:51 Sinning them for tariff?
0:07:52 Let me think.
0:07:53 Tax.
0:07:54 Thanks for the question.
0:07:56 Question number two.
0:08:00 Hey, Prof. G, John coming to you from Austin, Texas.
0:08:03 In the autopsy of the presidential election,
0:08:04 I have not heard much mentioned
0:08:08 about the sheer number of votes cast in 2024 compared to 2020.
0:08:13 Voter turnout percentage hasn’t been calculated yet for 2024,
0:08:14 but you can only assume it was much lower
0:08:17 than the 66.6% from 2020.
0:08:20 My question is what happened in 2024
0:08:23 with such low voter turnout compared to 2020?
0:08:26 Is the answer that the mass voting public
0:08:27 was just too lazy to get out of the House
0:08:30 and cast a vote in person in 2024?
0:08:32 I would love to hear your thoughts on this.
0:08:34 Thanks.
0:08:35 Thanks for the question, John.
0:08:38 About two-thirds or 66% of eligible voters
0:08:40 participated in the 2020 election.
0:08:44 That was the highest turnout for a national election since 1900.
0:08:44 Wow.
0:08:46 As we’re recording this,
0:08:48 ballots are still being counted for this year’s election,
0:08:50 but according to estimates from the Associated Press
0:08:52 and the University of Florida election lab,
0:08:55 64.5% of eligible voters participated.
0:08:59 So I think that’s actually a pretty decent turnout.
0:09:02 So I think this was a very emotional election,
0:09:05 and I think that this shows that this turnout was actually
0:09:09 as high or higher than most elections.
0:09:12 And typically, oftentimes people don’t vote
0:09:14 because they get discouraged or they’re confused
0:09:16 or they don’t know who to vote for.
0:09:17 But in this instance,
0:09:19 I think a lot of people were very motivated,
0:09:21 very polarized, very emotional, a lot of rage.
0:09:25 So actually, I think voter turnout was pretty strong here,
0:09:27 not as strong as two-thirds.
0:09:31 I think some of that was, there was a bit of a gag reflex
0:09:34 around Trump, very emotional time around COVID.
0:09:36 And I think there were a lot of people
0:09:39 who were just less comfortable with Trump.
0:09:44 Now, having said that, why didn’t you have greater numbers in 2024?
0:09:46 The honest answer is I don’t know,
0:09:47 but historically speaking,
0:09:49 we had pretty strong voter turnout here.
0:09:51 We have one quick break before our final question.
0:09:52 Stay with us.
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0:13:11 Welcome back, question number three.
0:13:13 Hey PropG, this is Will in Philadelphia.
0:13:15 I just got out of the Navy
0:13:17 and now I’m using that sweet, sweet GI Bill
0:13:18 to go to grad school.
0:13:21 Finding an internship has been an interesting process.
0:13:23 I’m 31 and this is the first time in my life
0:13:25 a job interview didn’t involve running in push-ups.
0:13:28 I find myself spending a lot of time writing.
0:13:30 For schoolwork, networking emails,
0:13:33 cover letters, and questions for podcasts.
0:13:35 Spending this much time writing is new for me.
0:13:37 I find the process to be much more enjoyable than imagined,
0:13:40 but I’m admittedly not a good writer.
0:13:42 I’m trying to increase my skills and storytelling ability
0:13:45 because, A, I want to be good at the things I enjoy.
0:13:48 And, B, I consider it an asymmetric advantage
0:13:49 in my professional and personal future.
0:13:53 My question is, how did you develop your writing skills?
0:13:55 What aspects of writing and storytelling
0:13:57 did you want to develop specifically?
0:13:59 Thanks again.
0:14:01 Thanks for the question, Will.
0:14:02 And thanks for your service.
0:14:04 And I mean that sincerely.
0:14:07 One of the things I regret is never having served.
0:14:11 I think the great storytelling is the lost art
0:14:13 or the key competence.
0:14:14 If I could give my kids anything,
0:14:16 and I say this a lot, but it bears repeating,
0:14:19 it wouldn’t be Mandarin or computer science,
0:14:22 or programming, or negotiation skills,
0:14:23 it would be storytelling.
0:14:27 Your ability to get capital,
0:14:29 your ability to convince people to join you,
0:14:31 your ability to sell clients,
0:14:32 your ability to manage people,
0:14:35 your ability to find a mate, friends,
0:14:35 whatever it might be,
0:14:37 get elected to the House of Representatives
0:14:40 is based on your ability to be a great storyteller.
0:14:42 And that’s not just standing in front of a bunch of people.
0:14:46 It’s, are you a great storyteller over text?
0:14:47 Good twist of phrase.
0:14:49 Are you good on threads?
0:14:53 And I find that the hardest skill is writing.
0:14:54 It’s the hardest thing I do.
0:14:56 I’ve committed to writing a book every 18 months
0:14:57 until I kind of dropped dead,
0:14:59 and I’ve done that for the last seven years.
0:15:01 And every time I do it,
0:15:03 I think, why the fuck did I agree to do this again?
0:15:04 It is really difficult.
0:15:06 And I find I try and work out.
0:15:08 I try and damage my muscles,
0:15:11 and it’s such that they’ll grow back stronger and faster,
0:15:12 although that’s kind of going away.
0:15:15 But I also try and damage the muscle in between my ears,
0:15:18 and I find the best way to do that is to try and write.
0:15:20 There’s a few things you can do to write well.
0:15:23 One is academic, get struck in white, elements of style,
0:15:26 and just make sure that you understand basics of grammar.
0:15:27 I read that book six or seven times,
0:15:29 and I still struggle with grammar.
0:15:31 By the way, I was a shitty writer up until,
0:15:32 I don’t know, 25 or 30.
0:15:35 The second thing is, it sounds, Pat,
0:15:37 you just got to write all the fucking time.
0:15:38 The most important thing,
0:15:40 and this is true of most things, is starting.
0:15:41 You want to write something?
0:15:44 The key, flip open your laptop and start writing.
0:15:47 Because the real magic, there’s two pieces of magic.
0:15:49 Starting, and then going back in the edit.
0:15:52 So you just got to open, get some thoughts.
0:15:54 As soon as you get a thought, start writing.
0:15:56 It doesn’t mean that you don’t have to start.
0:15:58 It can be a paragraph that’s going to be in the body.
0:15:59 It can be the conclusion.
0:16:01 But the moment you have something, some form,
0:16:05 some coagulation of thoughts, some gestation of a concept,
0:16:07 some narrative arc, whatever, you write an outline,
0:16:09 whatever it is you think you have some insight
0:16:12 into what you, or some idea what you want to do, start writing.
0:16:15 The next thing is, if you want to be a great writer,
0:16:17 is you need to read a lot.
0:16:19 Because you’ll start picking up on things.
0:16:23 You’ll start getting great writers.
0:16:25 We’ll give you a sense for pace and cadence
0:16:26 and the architecture sentences.
0:16:28 A book that really helped me was,
0:16:31 I think it was called On Writing by Stephen King.
0:16:33 If you just type in Stephen King’s book on writing,
0:16:35 I thought it was fantastic.
0:16:38 And he uses these examples where he cites a passage
0:16:42 from one of his book where he’s describing this metal chest
0:16:43 that things are stored in.
0:16:47 Or he describes how he used to go to the doctor
0:16:49 and have his eardrums pierced to release the fluid.
0:16:51 And he describes it in such horrific detail
0:16:53 that you’re literally just on the edge of your seat.
0:16:57 And you realize this guy has such, such a gift.
0:16:59 I think he’s arguably my favorite writer.
0:17:00 Is that true?
0:17:00 Maybe John Irving?
0:17:01 I don’t know.
0:17:05 Anyways, in some basic academics, elements of style,
0:17:09 chest start, practice, read, wonderful writers.
0:17:10 But again, it’s like anything in life.
0:17:11 What is the key?
0:17:12 What is the key?
0:17:14 Now, start.
0:17:17 That’s all for this episode.
0:17:18 If you’d like to submit a question,
0:17:21 please email a voice recording to Office Hours of Prop 2 Media.
0:17:23 Again, that’s officehoursofprop2media.com.
0:17:35 This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez
0:17:36 and Caroline Shagren.
0:17:37 Drew Burroughs is our technical director.
0:17:39 Thank you for listening to the Prop 2 Pod
0:17:40 from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
0:17:43 We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy, No Malice,
0:17:45 as read by George Hawn.
0:17:47 And please follow our Prop 2 Markets Pod
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Scott discusses Apple’s future under a second Trump Administration, specifically how tariffs could affect the tech company. He then speaks about the voter turnout in the 2024 election. He wraps up with advice to a listener looking to develop their writing skills. 

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