AI transcript
Support for this show comes from Seven Rooms.
For the restaurant operators out there who want to create more regulars on the regular,
check out Seven Rooms.
Seven Rooms is an all-in-one CRM marketing and operations platform
that helps you make more money and more magic for your guests.
It gives your staff the tools to deliver service that keeps your guests coming back for more,
from direct reservations to smart table management to targeted text and email marketing.
Seven Rooms helps you grow your brand and your covers and not your workload.
Learn more at SevenRooms.com
Seven Rooms. Make magic. Make money.
Support for this show comes from Constant Contact.
If you struggle just to get your customers to notice you,
Constant Contact has what you need to grab their attention.
Constant Contact’s award-winning marketing platform offers all the automation,
integration and reporting tools that get your marketing running seamlessly,
all backed by their expert live customer support.
It’s time to get going and growing with Constant Contact today.
Ready, set, grow.
Go to ConstantContact.ca and start your free trial today.
Go to ConstantContact.ca for your free trial.
ConstantContact.ca
Amazon Q Business is the generative A.I. assistant from AWS
because business can be slow, like wading through the mud.
But Amazon Q helps streamline work,
so tests like summarizing monthly results can be done in no time.
Learn what Amazon Q Business can do for you at aws.com/learnmore.
That’s aws.com/learnmore.
I’m Sky Galloway, and this is No Mercy, No Malice.
Digital is the apex predator, legacy media is the prey.
There are still lots of sheep.
Media consolidation, as read by George Hahn.
The hottest product in tech is Blue Sky,
adding one million users a day since the election.
CEO Jay Graber says the platform will never have ads,
as ads are the road to “ensidification.”
Okay, then.
Ad-supported media as a whole is one of the least volatile businesses
over the last century, accounting for 1.5% of GDP
and rarely straying from that number.
Inside the sector, things are less tranquil, i.e., more chaotic.
In an attention economy, money follows eyeballs.
I believe we’ll see ads on Blue Sky eventually,
but for now, let’s talk about consolidation in the broader sector.
Stories about Burmese pythons litter the local news in Florida.
These snakes get big, really big.
The serpents can grow to as much as 16 feet long
and weigh hundreds of pounds.
This presents a problem, as most owners are 5’9″
and soon discover their roommate situation is unworkable.
Owners release the snakes into the Everglades,
where they begin taking down alligators and deer.
An alien species to the ecosystem of swamps, marshes, and mangrove forests,
they’ve established themselves as the apex predator,
and their population has exploded.
The threat to Florida’s ecosystem is so great
that mitigation efforts include employing full-time snake hunters
and organizing state-sponsored hunting competitions.
The winner of one competition earned $10,000 for nabbing 28 pythons.
A drop in the bucket against a species that lays 30+ eggs at a time
and can reproduce asexually.
After three decades, the U.S. Geological Survey concluded in 2023
that the python is winning.
Unlike the classic apex predator, which evolves alongside its prey,
a non-native apex predator arrives with such disruptive force
that instead of dominating an ecosystem, they transform it.
Legacy media looks like Florida 30 years after the arrival of the Burmese python.
A non-native apex predator, digital, is out hunting
and out reproducing the previous apex predator, legacy media.
Digitization lowers the barrier to entry, giving everyone access to everything.
Initially, this looks like competition with extra protein,
but over time, it becomes consolidation on steroids,
as digital ecosystems are winner-take-most or all
based on who establishes leadership and access to the cheapest capital.
Amazon registers 37% of e-commerce in the U.S.
while its nine closest competitors, Walmart, Apple, Target, etc.,
account for 23% combined.
Nearly two-thirds of the world’s social media ads are sequestered to meta.
Since 2014, 90-plus percent of internet searches are done on Google.
The second most popular search engine, Microsoft’s Bing,
commands less than 4% of the global search market.
Three companies, Match Group, Bumble, and eHarmony,
control the entire digital dating marketplace.
There is also consolidation on the customer end,
where 10% of men get 80% to 90% of the dating opportunities.
In my industry, podcasting, the concentration is extreme even by digital standards.
Of the 600,000 podcasts that produce content each week,
the top 10 capture half the revenue.
Put another way, to build a business in podcasting that pays people well
and retains talent with high opportunity costs,
you likely need to be in the top 0.1% by listenership.
As a member of UCLA’s crew team,
I was 3.5 times more likely to be an Olympian than a successful podcast host.
In the late 1990s, a wave of internet startups introduced a non-native Apex predator
called streaming into the television media ecosystem.
30 years later, most of those startups are dead,
but their species has transformed the ecosystem such that streamers
are the hunters and legacy media, the prey.
To paraphrase what Ernest Hemingway said about bankruptcy,
legacy media consolidated gradually, then suddenly.
Here’s the gradual part.
Over the past four decades, we’ve gone from an ecosystem
where the number of companies controlling 90% of American media has gone from 50 to 6.
Deregulation, financialization, and lax antitrust enforcement incentivize consolidation,
but the shift from analog to digital made it a necessity,
with the legacy media companies bulking up to keep from being devoured by digital.
The sudden part happened last month,
when Comcast announced it would spin off its cable assets,
USA, CNBC, MSNBC, and E, along with digital properties such as Rotten Tomatoes and Fandango,
into a holding company called Spinco.
My first serious relationship in NYC was with a wonderful woman who suffered from bipolar disorder.
We broke up for a simple reason.
I did not know who I was going to wake up next to in the morning.
When a company has a profitable but declining business, cable, and a growth business, streaming,
investors don’t know who they’re living with.
They don’t know how to value the asset,
so they assign the multiple of its worst business to the entire company.
The divestiture of assets in different life cycle stages provides more clarity to investors
and ultimately creates a smaller hole that’s greater than the sum of its parts.
The Spinco cable assets generate about $7 billion per year in revenue.
Meanwhile, Peacock, Comcast’s streaming service, reduced its losses from $565 million to $436 million year over year.
But more important for a growth asset, its revenue increased 82% year over year to $1.5 billion.
I predicted Spinco a year ago.
I’ll make another prediction now.
Spinco will become a vehicle for acquiring other cable assets.
Warner Brothers Discovery and Paramount are likely sellers,
as both have profitable streaming units that are weighed down by legacy assets.
When Max swung from a loss of $1.6 billion to a profit of $103 million year over year,
Warner Brothers Discovery saw its stock fall 12%.
Paramount Plus turned a $49 million profit in Q3, but Paramount’s market cap is down 19% this year.
Disney, the only legacy player to see its stock increase after its streamer reached profitability,
says it’s not selling its linear assets, ABC, FX, ESPN, etc.,
as those networks are deeply integrated into Disney Plus.
Interestingly, all three companies are betting on bundling strategies,
i.e. consolidating cable content in one app without the cable infrastructure.
Netflix, the non-native Apex predator, says it’s strong enough to hunt solo.
I think Bob Iger is either wrong or he’s playing poker and holding out for a better price.
If Disney sold its cable assets for $1, I believe it would be worth more within a year,
as it would offer a cleaner story regarding streaming, movies, and the parks,
versus Bob apologizing every quarter for ABC and ESPN’s lackluster performance.
The second best investment I ever made was in a Yellow Pages company.
At the time, these assets were declining at 7% to 12% per year,
but they were still throwing off a lot of cash flow.
We acquired one Yellow Pages company after another on this basic thesis.
Together, we can survive, even prosper.
Alone, we’re all dead.
Our strategy was simple.
Cut costs faster than revenue declined by retaining the top 10% of salespeople,
closing headquarters, and laying off nearly everyone at HQ.
That we were able to pick up these assets on the cheap meant that every year we increased cash flow.
Coda, ultimately, the company returned to growth as a customer relationship management firm.
Distressed assets can be great businesses, as they can be bought on sale,
and typically don’t go away as quickly as people believe they will.
The median age of an MTV viewer is 50 years old.
The median age of an MSNBC viewer is 70 years old.
These aren’t attractive demos for advertisers,
but those audiences are likely to continue tuning in for the rest of their lives.
As long as ownership stops trying to inject Botox and filler into a senior to make it look young again,
they can generate increasing cash flows with linear assets by cutting costs faster than the rate of decline via consolidation.
In television, the platform has always been bigger than the talent.
In podcasting and the creator economy, it’s the converse.
Net neutrality protects the little guy from getting muscled out on distribution,
as the distribution is accessible and free to everyone.
The means of production are relatively cheap.
My podcasting kit costs around $1,000.
A decent TV studio can run over $400,000.
There is little sustainable enterprise value in a podcast company.
What matters isn’t CAPEX or infrastructure, it’s talent.
That’s why a small number of individual podcasters are getting rich,
but not a lot of podcast company shareholders.
Podcasters command a greater share of revenue,
and their orders of magnitude more efficient than TV studios,
resulting in better pricing for advertisers.
A cable news anchor recently told me he expected his compensation to decrease 80% with his next contract.
He isn’t Rachel Maddow, though her new contract at MSNBC reportedly will pay her $5 million less per year.
Puck calls this “the great TV news comp depression.”
But it isn’t just cable news.
I recently had lunch with an Oscar-nominated movie star, Flex,
who told me he’d worked for scale, i.e. the guild minimum, on his last few films.
On the scripted television side, where salaries historically increased with each new season,
networks are cutting pay to keep shows afloat.
CBS reportedly cut pay for the cast of Blue Bloods by 25%.
Industry-wide, actors have seen their median hourly wage decline by 56% since 2013.
Television writers, who went on strike with zero leverage just as their employers were scaling back content budgets
and shifting production overseas,
are 1.5 times more likely to work for the guild minimum than they were a decade ago.
An apex predator released into the wild has reproduced asexually,
doesn’t need distribution partners, and is devouring the ecosystem.
Since launching its original content business in 2012,
Netflix’s market cap has increased 7,337%.
This means the industry is booming for all involved, no?
The dominant means of production for scripted television is Netflix,
which has flexed this muscle to reshape the flows of value.
Specifically, it has reduced production costs while massively investing to create an explosion
in the amount of content transferring value from all parts of the ecosystem
to the company’s shareholders and subscribers.
If you live in LA, you’ve likely given four stars to a former producer of a reality TV series.
There are 180,000 members of SAG-AFTRA and last year,
86% of them didn’t qualify for health insurance as they made less than $26,000.
Constant reminders from CNBC regarding the market touching new highs masks a deeper issue.
As in the future described by William Gibson, the future/prosperity of media is here.
Just not evenly distributed.
AI, Netflix, and the big tech platforms are eating everything and they have few, if any, predators.
The dear and alligators, industry workers, have no means of defense
because they’ve never encountered this species or technology before.
The result is an atmosphere of anxiety and fear.
These emotions are common sense.
Life is so rich.
[Music]
For the restaurant operators out there who want to create more regulars on the regular,
check out Seven Rooms.
Seven Rooms is an all-in-one CRM marketing and operations platform
that helps you make more money and more magic for your guests.
It gives your staff the tools to deliver service that keeps your guests coming back for more,
from direct reservations to smart table management to targeted text and email marketing.
Seven Rooms helps you grow your brand and your covers and not your workload.
Learn more at SevenRooms.com
Seven Rooms. Make magic. Make money.
Support for this show comes from Constant Contact.
If you struggle just to get your customers to notice you,
Constant Contact has what you need to grab their attention.
Constant Contact’s award-winning marketing platform offers all the automation,
integration and reporting tools that get your marketing running seamlessly,
all backed by their expert live customer support.
It’s time to get going and growing with Constant Contact today.
Ready, set, grow.
Go to ConstantContact.ca and start your free trial today.
Go to ConstantContact.ca for your free trial.
ConstantContact.ca
Amazon Q Business is the generative A.I. assistant from AWS
because business can be slow, like wading through the mud.
But Amazon Q helps streamline work,
so tests like summarizing monthly results can be done in no time.
Learn what Amazon Q Business can do for you at aws.com/learnmore.
That’s aws.com/learnmore.
I’m Sky Galloway, and this is No Mercy, No Malice.
Digital is the apex predator, legacy media is the prey.
There are still lots of sheep.
Media consolidation, as read by George Hahn.
The hottest product in tech is Blue Sky,
adding one million users a day since the election.
CEO Jay Graber says the platform will never have ads,
as ads are the road to “ensidification.”
Okay, then.
Ad-supported media as a whole is one of the least volatile businesses
over the last century, accounting for 1.5% of GDP
and rarely straying from that number.
Inside the sector, things are less tranquil, i.e., more chaotic.
In an attention economy, money follows eyeballs.
I believe we’ll see ads on Blue Sky eventually,
but for now, let’s talk about consolidation in the broader sector.
Stories about Burmese pythons litter the local news in Florida.
These snakes get big, really big.
The serpents can grow to as much as 16 feet long
and weigh hundreds of pounds.
This presents a problem, as most owners are 5’9″
and soon discover their roommate situation is unworkable.
Owners release the snakes into the Everglades,
where they begin taking down alligators and deer.
An alien species to the ecosystem of swamps, marshes, and mangrove forests,
they’ve established themselves as the apex predator,
and their population has exploded.
The threat to Florida’s ecosystem is so great
that mitigation efforts include employing full-time snake hunters
and organizing state-sponsored hunting competitions.
The winner of one competition earned $10,000 for nabbing 28 pythons.
A drop in the bucket against a species that lays 30+ eggs at a time
and can reproduce asexually.
After three decades, the U.S. Geological Survey concluded in 2023
that the python is winning.
Unlike the classic apex predator, which evolves alongside its prey,
a non-native apex predator arrives with such disruptive force
that instead of dominating an ecosystem, they transform it.
Legacy media looks like Florida 30 years after the arrival of the Burmese python.
A non-native apex predator, digital, is out hunting
and out reproducing the previous apex predator, legacy media.
Digitization lowers the barrier to entry, giving everyone access to everything.
Initially, this looks like competition with extra protein,
but over time, it becomes consolidation on steroids,
as digital ecosystems are winner-take-most or all
based on who establishes leadership and access to the cheapest capital.
Amazon registers 37% of e-commerce in the U.S.
while its nine closest competitors, Walmart, Apple, Target, etc.,
account for 23% combined.
Nearly two-thirds of the world’s social media ads are sequestered to meta.
Since 2014, 90-plus percent of internet searches are done on Google.
The second most popular search engine, Microsoft’s Bing,
commands less than 4% of the global search market.
Three companies, Match Group, Bumble, and eHarmony,
control the entire digital dating marketplace.
There is also consolidation on the customer end,
where 10% of men get 80% to 90% of the dating opportunities.
In my industry, podcasting, the concentration is extreme even by digital standards.
Of the 600,000 podcasts that produce content each week,
the top 10 capture half the revenue.
Put another way, to build a business in podcasting that pays people well
and retains talent with high opportunity costs,
you likely need to be in the top 0.1% by listenership.
As a member of UCLA’s crew team,
I was 3.5 times more likely to be an Olympian than a successful podcast host.
In the late 1990s, a wave of internet startups introduced a non-native Apex predator
called streaming into the television media ecosystem.
30 years later, most of those startups are dead,
but their species has transformed the ecosystem such that streamers
are the hunters and legacy media, the prey.
To paraphrase what Ernest Hemingway said about bankruptcy,
legacy media consolidated gradually, then suddenly.
Here’s the gradual part.
Over the past four decades, we’ve gone from an ecosystem
where the number of companies controlling 90% of American media has gone from 50 to 6.
Deregulation, financialization, and lax antitrust enforcement incentivize consolidation,
but the shift from analog to digital made it a necessity,
with the legacy media companies bulking up to keep from being devoured by digital.
The sudden part happened last month,
when Comcast announced it would spin off its cable assets,
USA, CNBC, MSNBC, and E, along with digital properties such as Rotten Tomatoes and Fandango,
into a holding company called Spinco.
My first serious relationship in NYC was with a wonderful woman who suffered from bipolar disorder.
We broke up for a simple reason.
I did not know who I was going to wake up next to in the morning.
When a company has a profitable but declining business, cable, and a growth business, streaming,
investors don’t know who they’re living with.
They don’t know how to value the asset,
so they assign the multiple of its worst business to the entire company.
The divestiture of assets in different life cycle stages provides more clarity to investors
and ultimately creates a smaller hole that’s greater than the sum of its parts.
The Spinco cable assets generate about $7 billion per year in revenue.
Meanwhile, Peacock, Comcast’s streaming service, reduced its losses from $565 million to $436 million year over year.
But more important for a growth asset, its revenue increased 82% year over year to $1.5 billion.
I predicted Spinco a year ago.
I’ll make another prediction now.
Spinco will become a vehicle for acquiring other cable assets.
Warner Brothers Discovery and Paramount are likely sellers,
as both have profitable streaming units that are weighed down by legacy assets.
When Max swung from a loss of $1.6 billion to a profit of $103 million year over year,
Warner Brothers Discovery saw its stock fall 12%.
Paramount Plus turned a $49 million profit in Q3, but Paramount’s market cap is down 19% this year.
Disney, the only legacy player to see its stock increase after its streamer reached profitability,
says it’s not selling its linear assets, ABC, FX, ESPN, etc.,
as those networks are deeply integrated into Disney Plus.
Interestingly, all three companies are betting on bundling strategies,
i.e. consolidating cable content in one app without the cable infrastructure.
Netflix, the non-native Apex predator, says it’s strong enough to hunt solo.
I think Bob Iger is either wrong or he’s playing poker and holding out for a better price.
If Disney sold its cable assets for $1, I believe it would be worth more within a year,
as it would offer a cleaner story regarding streaming, movies, and the parks,
versus Bob apologizing every quarter for ABC and ESPN’s lackluster performance.
The second best investment I ever made was in a Yellow Pages company.
At the time, these assets were declining at 7% to 12% per year,
but they were still throwing off a lot of cash flow.
We acquired one Yellow Pages company after another on this basic thesis.
Together, we can survive, even prosper.
Alone, we’re all dead.
Our strategy was simple.
Cut costs faster than revenue declined by retaining the top 10% of salespeople,
closing headquarters, and laying off nearly everyone at HQ.
That we were able to pick up these assets on the cheap meant that every year we increased cash flow.
Coda, ultimately, the company returned to growth as a customer relationship management firm.
Distressed assets can be great businesses, as they can be bought on sale,
and typically don’t go away as quickly as people believe they will.
The median age of an MTV viewer is 50 years old.
The median age of an MSNBC viewer is 70 years old.
These aren’t attractive demos for advertisers,
but those audiences are likely to continue tuning in for the rest of their lives.
As long as ownership stops trying to inject Botox and filler into a senior to make it look young again,
they can generate increasing cash flows with linear assets by cutting costs faster than the rate of decline via consolidation.
In television, the platform has always been bigger than the talent.
In podcasting and the creator economy, it’s the converse.
Net neutrality protects the little guy from getting muscled out on distribution,
as the distribution is accessible and free to everyone.
The means of production are relatively cheap.
My podcasting kit costs around $1,000.
A decent TV studio can run over $400,000.
There is little sustainable enterprise value in a podcast company.
What matters isn’t CAPEX or infrastructure, it’s talent.
That’s why a small number of individual podcasters are getting rich,
but not a lot of podcast company shareholders.
Podcasters command a greater share of revenue,
and their orders of magnitude more efficient than TV studios,
resulting in better pricing for advertisers.
A cable news anchor recently told me he expected his compensation to decrease 80% with his next contract.
He isn’t Rachel Maddow, though her new contract at MSNBC reportedly will pay her $5 million less per year.
Puck calls this “the great TV news comp depression.”
But it isn’t just cable news.
I recently had lunch with an Oscar-nominated movie star, Flex,
who told me he’d worked for scale, i.e. the guild minimum, on his last few films.
On the scripted television side, where salaries historically increased with each new season,
networks are cutting pay to keep shows afloat.
CBS reportedly cut pay for the cast of Blue Bloods by 25%.
Industry-wide, actors have seen their median hourly wage decline by 56% since 2013.
Television writers, who went on strike with zero leverage just as their employers were scaling back content budgets
and shifting production overseas,
are 1.5 times more likely to work for the guild minimum than they were a decade ago.
An apex predator released into the wild has reproduced asexually,
doesn’t need distribution partners, and is devouring the ecosystem.
Since launching its original content business in 2012,
Netflix’s market cap has increased 7,337%.
This means the industry is booming for all involved, no?
The dominant means of production for scripted television is Netflix,
which has flexed this muscle to reshape the flows of value.
Specifically, it has reduced production costs while massively investing to create an explosion
in the amount of content transferring value from all parts of the ecosystem
to the company’s shareholders and subscribers.
If you live in LA, you’ve likely given four stars to a former producer of a reality TV series.
There are 180,000 members of SAG-AFTRA and last year,
86% of them didn’t qualify for health insurance as they made less than $26,000.
Constant reminders from CNBC regarding the market touching new highs masks a deeper issue.
As in the future described by William Gibson, the future/prosperity of media is here.
Just not evenly distributed.
AI, Netflix, and the big tech platforms are eating everything and they have few, if any, predators.
The dear and alligators, industry workers, have no means of defense
because they’ve never encountered this species or technology before.
The result is an atmosphere of anxiety and fear.
These emotions are common sense.
Life is so rich.
[Music]
As read by George Hahn.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
