Raging Moderates: Why the Government Shut Down—and How Democrats Claim Victory

AI transcript
0:00:03 When I found out my friend got a great deal on a wool coat from Winners,
0:00:04 I started wondering,
0:00:08 is every fabulous item I see from Winners?
0:00:10 Like that woman over there with the designer jeans.
0:00:12 Are those from Winners?
0:00:14 Ooh, or those beautiful gold earrings.
0:00:16 Did she pay full price?
0:00:17 Or that leather tote?
0:00:18 Or that cashmere sweater?
0:00:19 Or those knee-high boots?
0:00:20 That dress?
0:00:21 That jacket?
0:00:22 Those shoes?
0:00:25 Is anyone paying full price for anything?
0:00:26 Stop wondering.
0:00:27 Start winning.
0:00:28 Winners.
0:00:29 Find fabulous for less.
0:00:31 A quick note before we start.
0:00:35 We’re looking to answer more of your burning questions on our Office Hours podcast.
0:00:40 That’s where I take your questions on business, tech, relationships, anything that’s on your mind.
0:00:43 Send a voice recording to officehours at propertymedia.com,
0:00:47 or you can post in the monthly thread on the Scott Galloway subreddit,
0:00:49 where we pull the top-voted questions.
0:00:50 What a thrill.
0:00:53 Now here’s Raging Moderates.
0:00:57 Welcome to Raging Moderates.
0:00:57 I’m Scott Galloway.
0:00:59 And I’m Jessica Charlov.
0:01:01 Okay, Jess, quick banner.
0:01:02 How are you?
0:01:03 I’m good.
0:01:04 How are you?
0:01:04 I’m good.
0:01:11 You continue to be an inspiration, and I don’t know how on earth your mental health holds up.
0:01:12 Oh, what clip did you see?
0:01:13 Oh, my God.
0:01:14 Just all of it.
0:01:16 I’m triggered.
0:01:20 This stuff is just—I will say this.
0:01:28 You—they do let you run, because I think that they—a producer has basically said something strange happened on the way to the ratings,
0:01:30 and that is people like her.
0:01:34 So all of the four of you occasionally just shut the fuck up.
0:01:38 And I have seen a noticeable difference that they let you run.
0:01:42 So clearly a producer has done the math here and go, actually, people like what she has to say.
0:01:42 Stop interrupting.
0:01:44 I thought it was I was just that good.
0:01:45 I don’t think that’s it.
0:01:46 I don’t think that’s it.
0:01:47 Yeah, Kitty Corral.
0:01:50 It’s been bleak, as you know.
0:01:58 I feel like we’re in a new phase where now they just say, I don’t care, right?
0:01:59 Like, it doesn’t matter.
0:02:01 You could present all the data in the world.
0:02:08 You could even be telling me about your deeply held feelings, and the rights response is, I don’t care, and you can’t.
0:02:08 I’m on top.
0:02:08 Fuck you.
0:02:08 Yeah.
0:02:09 Right.
0:02:10 Like, what was it?
0:02:12 You lost, and it’s payback time.
0:02:13 So you’re like, okay.
0:02:16 I heard we’re not supposed to negotiate with terrorists, but—
0:02:16 There you go.
0:02:18 There you go.
0:02:19 I got to say something, though.
0:02:20 I know we’re supposed to do a quick banner.
0:02:35 I am moderating a discussion at the 92nd Street Y on October 23rd about transgender athletes in sports, and we’re going to put it in the show notes, but if you’re in the New York City area, I would love if you guys came.
0:02:41 It’s a conversation with a Duke law professor, Dorianne Coleman, and a sports scientist who’s trans herself, Dr. Joanna Harper.
0:02:44 I have to do a ton of prep for this.
0:02:46 It’s not like a cable news debate.
0:02:50 I actually need to know what’s going on.
0:02:53 But it should be interesting, and I’m excited.
0:02:54 A little scared, but excited.
0:03:00 Yeah, I think—wow, I would actually—I won’t come to it, but I’ll watch it on YouTube.
0:03:01 Okay, great.
0:03:02 Because that was something—
0:03:04 And you have your event on November 5th, but that’s sold out.
0:03:06 Mine isn’t yet, so—
0:03:07 Yeah, yours will be, though.
0:03:10 I find that a fascinating topic because—
0:03:11 It’s a tough one.
0:03:11 Well, anyways, yeah.
0:03:15 I quite frankly don’t see it as that tough, but I think I’m a little bit more right on this.
0:03:20 Well, people—there’s a lot of heightened emotions about it, and it’s interesting to me, especially to have a sports scientist.
0:03:28 So she advises the international bodies on their policies about this, and to have someone who’s actually trans themselves.
0:03:37 And the law professor was a track athlete, so I’m going to be the least athletic person probably on the panel.
0:03:43 We should come back to that because I would like to discuss this with you after the panel and get your view and how it changed you.
0:03:48 And I have strong views on this, strong uninformed views, which makes me like one of the four—
0:03:49 Perfect for podcasts.
0:03:50 One of the four of the five.
0:03:59 But anyways, today we’re going to talk about who really wins from a government shutdown, Trump’s new plan for peace in Gaza as we approach the two-year anniversary of the beginning of the war,
0:04:04 and why MAGA is furious over the NFL picking Bad Bunny for the Super Bowl halftime show.
0:04:05 Who the fuck cares?
0:04:07 All right, let’s get into it.
0:04:14 With hours to go before a shutdown, Democrats are holding firm on health care, Republicans on spending, and both sides are betting the other will take the blame.
0:04:21 Beyond the politics, past shutdowns have stalled food inspections, canceled immigration hearings, and furloughed tens of thousands of workers.
0:04:27 Jess, who do you think is actually going to bear the brunt of the blame if the government shuts down?
0:04:34 Let me just say, it appears that there’s about ten times the energy going into trying to blame the other side than actually trying to come to any sort of deal here.
0:04:37 Who do you think wins and loses here?
0:04:42 Well, the American people lose, but that’s just a regular day in Washington, I feel like.
0:04:50 And that’s why you have such negative approval ratings of Congress and Senate and everyone in D.C. across the board.
0:04:56 The polls show that the Republicans will be blamed by a 13-point margin overall.
0:05:01 And if you just look at independents, that margin is 17 points, which is pretty sizable.
0:05:02 And that’s how it should be.
0:05:04 The Republicans control everything.
0:05:10 And, you know, their best attempt at negotiating has led to a comment.
0:05:11 What did Trump say?
0:05:13 On second thought, go fuck yourself.
0:05:17 That’s what a White House official relayed back out to the press.
0:05:25 And then, you know, we had the meeting that took place on Monday, which was followed up by a racist AI video that Trump tweeted out.
0:05:35 So, you know, I think that the framing of this is of one party that is interested in having a negotiation, which is how these spending bills are supposed to be done.
0:05:39 And that’s how it is always done, at least when it’s successful.
0:05:46 And another party that, frankly, just wants to lie about what the Democrats are asking for.
0:05:52 And it gets exhausting having to get into the weeds for these fact checks constantly.
0:05:56 You know, we’re talking about sex changes in Peru again.
0:06:06 And, you know, they want to conflate, as well, things that were in the big, beautiful bill, which has a negative 29 approval rating, and what’s in the spending bill.
0:06:11 But the crux of it is the extension of the ACA tax credits.
0:06:16 And those premiums could be jacked up by up to 75 percent.
0:06:20 And the right wants to make it out like this is just going to be a Democrat’s problem.
0:06:21 That is not true.
0:06:29 Plenty of Republicans are on the Affordable Care Act or have Obamacare, and they’re not going to be happy when they see their premiums going up, too.
0:06:38 So big loser Americans that we have such dysfunctional government, but politically speaking, the Republicans will be blamed.
0:06:40 What’s your what are your hot takes?
0:06:49 So traditionally, the American public does not feel that negotiating government policies and spending should be done vis-a-vis shutdowns or threats of shutdown.
0:06:52 They’re like, that’s not where we make these decisions, right?
0:07:04 And the last two shutdowns that were averted were basically because the Republicans tried to hold the government hostage for funding for the wall and for a reduction in Obamacare.
0:07:05 And neither worked.
0:07:06 And they ended up blinking.
0:07:15 So traditionally, it’s a losing prospect to shut the government down in exchange asking for a change in policy.
0:07:17 Americans don’t think that’s how you negotiate policy.
0:07:20 Having said that, I think it might be different this time.
0:07:27 And the Democrats are being shockingly strategic here in that is they’re not saying get rid of the tariffs nonsense.
0:07:33 They’re not saying we want more input into when you, you know, run military missions.
0:07:36 We want you to stop rounding up gardeners and housekeepers.
0:07:46 They’re going after a very divisive issue amongst Republicans and a very unpopular issue in that you mentioned the tax credits for Obamacare.
0:07:48 So they’re being very pointed.
0:07:50 They’re, I think, being very disciplined here.
0:07:57 And I think they actually, and to your point, it looks like they will come out of this the winners.
0:08:00 Also, I’m a big fan of the shutdown.
0:08:03 I think that we just look so weak.
0:08:06 It’s like Leader Jeffries and Senator Schumer, wet meat blanket.
0:08:16 I think instead of just clutching our pearls all the time, we need to go a little bit gangster and say we’re no longer going to fund a government that is essentially descending into fascism.
0:08:24 This deal to carve up TikTok, the government’s funding black sites to incarcerate who appear to be American citizens.
0:08:26 We are going to remember this.
0:08:30 And to the letter of the law, we’re not going to engage in retribution.
0:08:34 But once we have a real DOJ again, we are going to remember what’s going to happen.
0:08:40 We’re going to unwind the TikTok deal being carved up and handed out to your Republican donors at an 80 percent discount.
0:08:43 We are going to remember who supported these black sites.
0:08:50 We are going to remember who decided to, you know, pull the security detail of former generals.
0:08:58 It reminds me there was actually a fairly robust, nonviolent resistance movement in Northern Europe.
0:09:08 When the Nazis rolled into Northern Europe and different countries, there was a tangible movement to say nonviolent resistance.
0:09:14 And, OK, sure, you’re so noble.
0:09:16 Now, come over here and please get on this train.
0:09:18 I mean, this is not the time.
0:09:21 I am sick of clutching our pearls.
0:09:24 And so I absolutely think we should shut down the government.
0:09:26 I think the Democrats are being smart here.
0:09:31 One issue, we want to restore tax credits for Obamacare, which is hugely popular.
0:09:45 And by the way, and by the way, affects more Republicans, affects more poor Republicans in red states who are much more dependent on government handouts than blue states.
0:09:48 So I actually like our odds here, Jess.
0:09:49 Any thoughts?
0:09:52 Yeah, I mean, I largely agree with you.
0:09:59 I have some nitpicking to do with messaging quality, not necessarily the substance of it.
0:10:06 But to your point about going a little bit more gangster, like I was watching Hakeem Jeffries was on Squawk Box this morning.
0:10:07 We’re recording this on Tuesday.
0:10:17 And Becky Quick asked him about, you know, aren’t you just trying to preserve funding for illegals, health care funding for illegals?
0:10:21 And he explained that’s illegal, which it is.
0:10:23 And Medicaid doesn’t do that.
0:10:26 And this is what the right wants you to believe about it.
0:10:31 But I’m kind of for pushback that looks like you and I both know that that’s a lie.
0:10:34 Don’t waste my time with something that’s a lie.
0:10:37 We have real work here to do, right?
0:10:40 Millions of Americans are going to lose their Medicaid coverage.
0:10:43 Your premiums are going to go up 75%.
0:10:57 And I think showing that you could throw some elbows would get us far, like showing up on more partisan shows, right, that are, you know, like doing a primetime show versus a morning news show.
0:11:05 I think all of these things would work to our benefit because the right is really good at lying and doing it very smoothly.
0:11:08 And we come off clunky too often.
0:11:15 And I think that that allows people to continue to think that we’re not on solid footing because it’s all about your presentation, right?
0:11:23 And it helps if the substance and the presentation are commingled and, you know, that we can project that.
0:11:27 So that’s my little messengering note.
0:11:41 But I also wanted to say that, you know, there’s reporting that there are some Republicans who are very nervous about the implications, not just on health care, but they’re also watching farmers all over this country get absolutely thrashed by these tariffs.
0:11:52 And Senator Thune is floating the idea of bailouts now for farmers saying, well, we could take some of the revenue from the tariffs and use that as a bailout for the farmers.
0:11:56 Now, you could have just not put the tariffs into place and the farmers would have been fine, right?
0:12:00 We have like zero soybean exports now at this point.
0:12:02 I think we got to be going really hard about this.
0:12:11 And I take your point like this shutdown is about health care and we can win a midterms talking about health care, which is also an economic issue.
0:12:19 But we should be commingling this conversation about what the tariffs are doing, specifically ravaging these rural communities.
0:12:22 It’s not just your hospitals that are shutting down.
0:12:27 These farmers, I don’t know if you’ve seen the footage, are showing up at town halls and losing their minds.
0:12:29 They’re out of business.
0:12:31 Yeah, well, they will be.
0:12:38 And they can’t even afford the equipment that they need to be able to do the job if they had anyone to send their crops to anyway.
0:12:40 But here’s the bottom line.
0:12:46 Most of these farms were non-economical without – there’s this cartoon of the family farm and everybody loves them.
0:12:51 And agribusiness has been consolidated and a lot of these farms make no economic sense.
0:12:57 And all subsidies do is create a certain lack of urgency for crop diversification or modernization.
0:12:58 They just aren’t competitive.
0:13:07 And then with respect to the tariffs and a bailout, this is no different than the government starting a fire, lighting a house on fire,
0:13:10 and then sending taxpayers the bill to put the fire out.
0:13:11 Let me get this.
0:13:17 We impose tariffs thinking that, oh, we’re so big and bad, no one will impose reciprocal tariffs.
0:13:23 Not only has China imposed reciprocal tariffs, they’ve just said, we’re no longer buying soybeans from you.
0:13:28 And they’ve already established deep supply lines of soybeans from Argentina and Brazil.
0:13:29 They’re not coming back, folks.
0:13:31 Argentina, who we just bailed out.
0:13:32 That was our thank you.
0:13:35 We have 20 – we can give $20 billion to Argentina.
0:13:41 But we’re – this is the government showing up, shooting farmers in the leg,
0:13:46 and then saying, oh, yeah, we didn’t know it would cost money to heal your leg,
0:13:48 and then sending taxpayers the bill.
0:13:53 I mean, this is – and I hate – I realize this is a reductive, snarky statement,
0:13:55 but I’m going to make it anyways.
0:13:59 These farmers, the majority of whom voted for Trump, you know, I love that billboard.
0:14:02 Damn, we were voting for racism, not tariffs.
0:14:08 So, look, folks, you’re the same voting bloc that thought a bailout of student loans was bad.
0:14:10 You wanted Trump.
0:14:11 Congratulations.
0:14:12 Here you are.
0:14:16 And as hardcore capitalists, I agree with you.
0:14:18 Bailouts are bad, and it is so stupid.
0:14:23 So, taxpayers get milked here, specifically younger people,
0:14:25 because this isn’t going to come from anything.
0:14:26 It’s going to be more debt.
0:14:31 Consumers have to pay more, because, effectively, it’s a tax.
0:14:34 Any tariff now is essentially a tax on consumers.
0:14:38 Farmers are just being put out of business,
0:14:41 and what we’re going to do is try and prop them up in the short term,
0:14:45 in time for the midterms, and there’ll be no structural advantage.
0:14:48 They’re going to be in the same – we might be able to bail them out for 6, 12,
0:14:52 or maybe 18 months, but these farmers are no longer competitive, folks,
0:14:55 and their biggest customer is not coming back.
0:14:57 They’re not coming back.
0:15:00 They’re not – they’ve reestablished new supply routes,
0:15:02 which were pretty easy to switch.
0:15:05 It ends up soybeans aren’t that difficult to produce,
0:15:10 and Argentinian and Brazilian farmland can make this shit really well as well.
0:15:15 This is a case study in why tariffs don’t work.
0:15:17 They raise prices for consumers.
0:15:21 They prop up industries that are not competitive,
0:15:24 and they just increase taxes, increase debt,
0:15:26 and a reduction in the prosperity of Americans,
0:15:29 and a total lack of the competitive.
0:15:34 This is socialism meets oligarchy meets poor economic policy.
0:15:36 And you’re absolutely right.
0:15:39 We should highlight you set the house – the government set the house on fire,
0:15:42 and now they want to charge taxpayers to put out the fire.
0:15:44 Jess, let’s take a quick break.
0:15:45 Stay with us.
0:15:55 Support for this show comes from Grammarly.
0:15:56 Attention, writers.
0:16:00 And I’m not just talking about the poets of the world typing in the window of their brownstone.
0:16:01 I’m talking to you.
0:16:06 Because regardless of what your title is, chances are you write emails, proposals, reports,
0:16:09 texts, and a million other bits of communications in your day-to-day.
0:16:13 And that’s the kind of stuff that Grammarly was designed to streamline.
0:16:17 Grammarly is the AI communication assistant that can help boost productivity by taking on the busy work
0:16:21 and get your ideas on paper with instantly generated drafts.
0:16:26 Grammarly can also help you personalize and refine your tone depending on your audience and context.
0:16:32 And Grammarly works across more than 500,000 apps and websites to help you save time and improve your communication.
0:16:38 According to their data, 90% of users say that Grammarly helps them save time writing and editing their work.
0:16:39 We use Grammarly at Prop G.
0:16:44 It makes our writing crisper and cleaner and also more economical.
0:16:46 It’s good at kind of reducing stuff.
0:16:50 Let Grammarly take the busy work off your plate so you can focus on high-impact work.
0:16:54 Download Grammarly for free at grammarly.com slash podcast.
0:16:56 That’s Grammarly.com slash podcast.
0:17:05 What makes for a happy life?
0:17:13 In 1938, scientists at Harvard started tracking the well-being of over 250 young people to figure that out.
0:17:18 Now, almost 90 years later, the results are in.
0:17:19 There was learning.
0:17:22 People who learned and read and read and read and liked to learn.
0:17:23 They were much happier as they got older.
0:17:26 People who are really good at managing their feelings.
0:17:29 But there was one thing that stood above all the rest.
0:17:31 I’m Henry Blodgett.
0:17:37 And this week on Solutions, I talk to best-selling author Arthur Brooks about the science of happiness.
0:17:42 Follow Solutions with Henry Blodgett for more wherever you get your podcasts.
0:17:52 Scott, we’re hitting the road, bringing Pivot Live to the people.
0:17:58 Seven cities, Toronto, Boston, New York, D.C., Chicago, San Francisco, and L.A., of course.
0:18:00 You went to Oasis.
0:18:01 You went to Beyoncé.
0:18:04 You saw the remake of Wizard of Oz and The Sphere.
0:18:08 All those suck compared to the Pivot Tour.
0:18:11 This is the biggest tour.
0:18:15 Same people that are organizing our tour that organized Taylor Swift’s tour.
0:18:18 They are much more excited about our tour.
0:18:19 All right.
0:18:20 That’s enough, Grandpa.
0:18:21 It’s going to be so good.
0:18:25 And we’re bringing our brand of whatever we do to the people.
0:18:27 And we’re excited to meet our fans.
0:18:27 We love our fans.
0:18:30 For tickets, head to PivotTour.com.
0:18:32 See you there.
0:18:36 Welcome back.
0:18:43 President Trump said he’s close to a peace deal that would end the war in Gaza after meeting on Monday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
0:18:49 The plan lays out a ceasefire, the release of all hostages, and the demilitarization of Gaza.
0:18:55 Though Hamas has yet to sign on but is leaning towards accepting, Netanyahu has already voiced support.
0:18:57 Jess, what do you think of this plan?
0:19:01 What an incredible few days Bibi Netanyahu has had.
0:19:07 When we sat down to record last week, we were talking about what a bad position Israel was in.
0:19:14 Macron had just done that big interview on Face the Nation, recognizing Palestinian statehood.
0:19:16 Britain, Canada saying the same.
0:19:22 The UN, Bibi, you know, huge protests when he spoke on Friday, last Friday.
0:19:30 Everyone kind of thinking, like, the world is shifting in the direction, frankly, of the Palestinians.
0:19:37 Everyone’s talking about, you know, starving kids, people using genocide as a term to describe it.
0:19:40 And now it looks like Bibi is on top of the world.
0:19:48 I mean, he has the Arab world and the West united in pushing Hamas to accept this plan.
0:19:59 And getting Qatar and Turkey in particular, who really have been propping up Hamas over to the side of the peace plan, I think it was, you know, the cherry on top for it.
0:20:02 And Israel had three main goals.
0:20:11 They wanted the hostages back to end Hamas’s rule in Gaza and ensure that the government that takes over does not belong to the Palestinian Authority.
0:20:22 And if this goes through and CBS is reporting that it will potentially in the next couple of days, he’s getting all three of those goals accomplished.
0:20:25 And so I think that it’s looking pretty good.
0:20:37 I mean, there are points in the plan, like one in particular about this, the development of developing Gaza, a Trump economic development plan to rebuild and energize Gaza.
0:20:45 I mean, that sounds like another grift to me and that we might be getting, you know, the Gaza Strip Mar-a-Lago style or whatever.
0:20:54 But in general, it seems like something that really has legs and could actually bring about the end to the war.
0:20:56 So that’s my top line.
0:20:57 What do you think about it?
0:21:00 I feel just totally out of my weight class here.
0:21:25 I immediately went to Dan Sinor’s Call Me Back podcast and we had a guy in there who said something I thought was really insightful, that the recognition of a two-state solution by France and some other countries is not so much bolstering the credibility or their belief that a two-state solution or that the parties are capable of it or that there’s a government that could be capable of it in Gaza, but simply as a rebuke to Israel.
0:21:26 They’re so fed up.
0:21:27 They’re so angry at Israel right now.
0:21:29 Look, I’m really hopeful.
0:21:31 I hope this goes through.
0:21:32 The war needs to end.
0:21:35 An occupying force has an obligation for humanitarian aid.
0:21:38 I’m still very sympathetic to the Israeli position.
0:21:41 Well, OK, release the hostages and lay down your arms.
0:21:42 What do they think is going to happen?
0:21:45 I do not believe Israel is going to commit genocide.
0:21:47 I think that the next stage is a rebuilding.
0:21:54 So, you know, and I ask people the same thing when we’re discussing this, would the Americans have left Nazis in Germany?
0:21:57 So I’m sympathetic to the Israeli cause here.
0:22:05 I understand the calls for the pulverizing of this, of Gaza needs to stop.
0:22:07 The humanitarian disaster needs to come to an end.
0:22:08 And I get it.
0:22:11 I really hope this is the end.
0:22:20 Having said that, it strikes me that Netanyahu and Trump and these other nations are in violent agreement with one another.
0:22:24 But Hamas, where is Hamas on this?
0:22:28 And so I don’t I’m I’m somewhat skeptical.
0:22:32 In addition, I think I think Netanyahu is.
0:22:44 I think he’s a bad actor and definitely as someone who is is pro-Israel, I think it’s important just as I consider myself pro-America.
0:22:46 There’s certain things about American policy that I think are mistakes.
0:22:51 I think it was a mistake for them to go in the strike in Qatar.
0:22:57 Did you see that Trump made Bibi called the Qatari prime minister and apologize, essentially?
0:23:06 Well, I’m wondering if Netanyahu really wants the deal done and has has manipulated Trump into a deal that Hamas will not accept.
0:23:09 And I know that sounds Machiavellian, but I wonder if Netanyahu.
0:23:17 I think Netanyahu, if he’s voted out of office as as someone anything less than a war hero, there’s a good chance he goes to jail.
0:23:22 And so the way to rally people around him is to be on a constant war footing.
0:23:31 I mean, keep in mind, this is someone who supported Hamas because he didn’t think as long as Hamas was in power, he thought there was no possibility for a two state solution.
0:23:37 So while I’m very pro-Israel, I’m where the most Israelis are.
0:23:40 And that is, I think the war needs to end.
0:23:54 But at the same time, there’s real questions around Netanyahu serving the interests of the Israeli people or, quite frankly, just trying to stay out of jail in a wag the dog scenario where he wants to be on a war footing.
0:23:58 So I wonder, I think Netanyahu is much smarter than Trump.
0:24:09 And I think I wonder if Netanyahu has come to an agreement that positions him as, I want the war to end, but has effectively ensured that there’s no way that Hamas will agree to this.
0:24:19 Having said that, all parties seem to believe, except for Hamas, that there’s so much pressure being brought to bear on Hamas that we’re close to a deal.
0:24:26 And just one of the things that stuck out to me, this is how depraved our society has become.
0:24:27 This is how ugly these wars.
0:24:32 We are negotiating the return and exchange of remains.
0:24:33 Yeah.
0:24:39 I mean, there’s literally a lack of all humanity here that we’re negotiating.
0:24:43 Well, if you send us the remains of these people, we’ll send you the remains.
0:24:46 I mean, it’s like, God, is there no baseline level of decency?
0:24:50 So this war needs to come to an end.
0:24:52 And I hope this happens.
0:24:55 I am somewhat cynical.
0:25:08 I think Netanyahu is someone who has figured out a way to manipulate the situation to his own advantage and is not a good fiduciary for the people of Israel.
0:25:24 And I think Trump oftentimes gets played and in a rush to deal, agrees to things that aren’t sustainable or enduring, and then moves on because he loses focus or gets frustrated that he can’t swap a floor in a condominium building for peace somewhere.
0:25:29 So I’m hopeful, but I’m somewhat cynical.
0:25:34 Do you think my cynicism here or my doubts are my bias against Trump?
0:25:39 Or do you think that, in fact, this deal is still somewhat tenuous?
0:25:41 Well, it’s definitely tenuous.
0:25:46 I mean, Hamas took six weeks to reject Biden’s peace plan when he put one forward.
0:25:53 But Hamas is in such a severely weakened position now, as opposed to when Biden was still president.
0:25:57 There’s an Israeli journalist who I follow and really like, Amit Siegel.
0:26:04 And he wrote, Hamas right now is a collection of frightened men who not long ago narrowly escaped an Israeli strike with advanced weaponry.
0:26:13 They are in a room surrounded by Qatari guards, fully aware of what will happen to them if they say no, because the leader has given a commitment to the president of the United States.
0:26:27 So, A, pretty amazing imagery and very believable thinking about what has gone on over the course of the last couple of years and how successful the Israeli strikes against their enemies have been.
0:26:30 And I 100% share your cynicism.
0:26:34 I don’t think Bibi should be the leader of Israel.
0:26:48 I think that you can make a very strong case that October 7th could have been avoided and that there was intel and information that people in very high positions of power were aware of and did nothing about.
0:26:57 And he needs to stay in office to stay out of jail, very similarly to what the head of the president of the United States had to do.
0:27:19 I am trying, though, to focus as much as I can on the fact that we have not had a moment where so many of the important actors in this puzzle are united and that we should lean into that and not let reflexive partisanship, which I have a ton of coursing through my veins, get in the way of that.
0:27:21 I know Trump wants a Nobel Peace Prize.
0:27:24 I know Trump wants to make a shit ton of money.
0:27:27 I know Trump wants the Abraham Accords part two.
0:27:37 But I also know that we share a lot of the same goals, first and foremost, in getting those hostages who are alive and the remains of those who aren’t back.
0:27:48 And it has been so disturbing and sad to me that foreign policy is discussed all the time and October 7th rarely comes up.
0:27:56 It’s like in the rearview mirror for so many people, even very smart people on this subject, right, who spend all day pontificating about it.
0:28:11 Yeah, and that people have forgotten what happened to those who went to the Nova Festival, to those who were just at home, you know, kids watching Bluey on their iPads and then having to watch their mothers get raped and beheaded.
0:28:15 Like, that will never not be front of mind for me.
0:28:25 And I want whatever peace these families can get from the return of those hostages to come as fast as humanly possible for them.
0:28:29 And this is the first time that I’ve thought maybe there is an end in sight.
0:28:43 And that’s what Pollyanna-ish, maybe, but, you know, that we’ve seen this plan and Trump saying to Russia that maybe Ukraine could get back all of the land that it had before the invasion.
0:28:46 Maybe he’s had a complete foreign policy lobotomy.
0:28:53 I don’t know what went on when that escalator was frozen, but I’m going to try to lean in as much as possible.
0:28:55 Clear-eyed, but optimistic.
0:29:21 Yeah, what we’re dealing with here is unprecedented, though, as far as I know, in warfare or conflict, and that is after Hitler killed himself, being the coward he was, and recognized, you know, or had some glimpse of what he had done and had his remains burnt, the German leadership said, okay, this has to stop.
0:29:26 We’ve lost the war, and we’re sick of being pulverized here.
0:29:31 Towards the end of the war, when all of the air defenses were down, we killed 40,000 civilians in Hamburg.
0:29:36 And when asked why we continued to bomb a defenseless city, Eisenhower said they need to know they lost.
0:29:40 And the German leadership signed unconditional surrender.
0:29:51 A Japanese emperor, who a lot of Japanese thought was a god, had to tell his military to stand down because they didn’t want to because he said, after two atomic bombs had been dropped, enough already.
0:29:59 And wars typically end when leadership decides they love their kids more than they hate their enemy, and their kids are being killed.
0:30:14 What’s different here is that the basis of this kind of theocratic, jihadist, extremist complexion of Hamas, they hate their enemy more than they love their own children.
0:30:18 They’re willing to embed their own children in hospitals and military targets.
0:30:21 I mean, people have said, Scott, it’s not fair to compare Hamas to Nazis.
0:30:22 I agree.
0:30:24 It’s unfair to Nazis.
0:30:34 The Nazis weren’t—the Nazis, the Germans in World War II, shipped their kids to the countryside to get them out of harm’s way.
0:30:36 They didn’t embed them in military targets.
0:30:51 The German high command had to implement a series of psychological counseling and training programs because the guards at concentration camps were suffering real mental issues because of the horror they were perpetrating.
0:31:10 Whereas, listen to the voicemails from this younger generation of males when they got in and butchered some Israeli families, calling and leaving voicemails, bragging to their—we are dealing with an enemy here or a force that is unlike any other force we’ve dealt with.
0:31:16 And I hope that the Hamas leadership in Qatar are materialist whores.
0:31:18 I hope that they are thinking, what is best for me?
0:31:26 How do I get a condo here and get guaranteed to hold on to the billions of dollars I have stolen from the people in Gaza?
0:31:33 I hope they’re not total, you know, jihadist, weirdo, theocrats.
0:31:43 I hope that they’re focused on saving their own skins and living, you know, going to Cipriani in Doha, which I’ve been to, by the way.
0:31:43 Really?
0:31:45 Yeah, I was there for World Cup.
0:31:47 By the way, they put on an amazing World Cup.
0:31:47 Got to give it to them.
0:31:48 It’s so hot, though.
0:31:50 I know it was all inside, but—
0:31:51 No, no, no.
0:31:51 It was during the winter.
0:31:53 You don’t remember after they won?
0:31:54 They then changed it to the winter.
0:31:55 Oh, yeah.
0:31:56 Okay.
0:31:56 No, no, no.
0:32:02 All that bullshit about, oh, we’re going to build air-conditioned stadiums and then disassemble them and send them to African nations was nothing but a lie.
0:32:07 After they paid off the most corrupt—one of the most corrupt international organizations in the world, UEFA and FIFA.
0:32:09 Anyway, I know a little too much about football.
0:32:11 By the way, going to see Chelsea tonight.
0:32:14 Going to see Chelsea play with my 15-year-old.
0:32:15 I’m super excited.
0:32:19 Don’t mean to diminish the very serious topic, talking about football.
0:32:20 Back to the hostages.
0:32:22 Back to the hostages.
0:32:30 We’re dealing with an enemy whose levers or incentives are different than any enemy we’ve dealt with before.
0:32:32 So, I’m hopeful.
0:32:47 But I have a tendency to believe that Trump is not very bright, doesn’t listen to his advisors, and that he’s being played by Netanyahu, who might be disingenuous about wanting this war to come to an end, but wants cloud cover to say,
0:32:54 I tried, and to continue levying that kind of death, disease, and disability on Palestinians.
0:33:08 Does it make you feel better, though, if he’s being played by Netanyahu, but also by Macron and Starmer and other world leaders that we like a bit more and trust a bit more?
0:33:09 Like, that’s the thing.
0:33:12 This is everybody now, right, that’s unified in this.
0:33:15 So, I’m taking some solace in that.
0:33:16 We shall see.
0:33:18 All right, Jess, let’s take one more quick break.
0:33:29 Hey, Alex Heath here, founder of Sources.news and a contributor at The Verge.
0:33:35 And I’m Ellis Hamburger, tech reporter turned industry insider, working closely with today’s hottest AI startups.
0:33:40 We’re excited to announce the launch of our new show, Access, with the Vox Media Podcast Network.
0:33:46 Access is the tech industry’s inside conversation with Silicon Valley’s most influential leaders.
0:33:51 From the tech titans of today to tomorrow’s most visionary builders.
0:33:56 It’s a show made by insiders for everyone who wants a glimpse into the future.
0:34:04 In our first episode, Alex interviewed Mark Zuckerberg about Meta’s latest smart glasses, the AI race, and what’s next for the social media giant.
0:34:06 I mean, didn’t you just tell Trump you were going to spend like $600 billion?
0:34:07 I mean, that’s…
0:34:09 I did, yeah, through 2028, which is…
0:34:10 That’s a lot of money.
0:34:11 It is.
0:34:19 And if we end up misspending a couple of hundred billion dollars, I think that that is going to be very unfortunate, obviously.
0:34:23 But what I’d say is I actually think the risk is higher on the other side.
0:34:28 You can find the Access pod now on YouTube, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
0:34:34 How does everyone know what everyone knows?
0:34:45 It’s a state sometimes called pluralistic ignorance or a spiral of silence where everyone mistakenly thinks that everyone else believes something and no one actually believes it.
0:35:13 There is a lot to talk about when we talk about Donald Trump and Jimmy Kimmel.
0:35:21 One big question I’ve got is why, in 2025, are late-night TV shows, like Jimmy Kimmel’s show, still on TV?
0:35:30 Even in our diminished times, Jimmy Kimmel, Stephen Colbert, they’re just some of the biggest faces of their networks.
0:35:37 If you start taking the biggest faces off your networks, you might save some nickels and dimes.
0:35:39 But what are you even anymore?
0:35:42 What even is your brand anymore?
0:35:48 I’m Peter Kofka, the host of Channels, and that was James Ponowozik, the TV critic for The New York Times.
0:35:57 This week, we’re talking about Trump and Kimmel, free speech, and a TV format that’s remained surprisingly durable for now.
0:36:02 That’s this week on Channels, wherever you get your favorite podcasts.
0:36:05 Welcome back.
0:36:11 Before we go, the NFL just handed the 2026 Super Bowl halftime stage to Bad Bunny, and MAGA World is furious.
0:36:17 Critics on the right are blasting the Puerto Rican superstar as a Trump-hater and anti-ice activist,
0:36:22 pointing to his decision to skip a U.S. tour over fears immigration agents could target his fans.
0:36:29 But Bad Bunny, one of the world’s most streamed artists, says headlining the Super Bowl is about celebrating his people, his culture, and his history.
0:36:36 Jess, will the NFL’s bet on Bad Bunny broaden its audience or further inflame the culture wars around football?
0:36:37 Both.
0:36:38 Yes.
0:36:42 Which I think they were acutely aware of and said, let’s do it.
0:36:49 I mean, it’s a long time since Colin Kaepernick took a knee, and we had that debate.
0:36:56 And in that time, Roger Goodell has seemed to be singularly focused on expanding the NFL.
0:37:01 I remember when I lived in London and started going to NFL games abroad.
0:37:04 And now it’s so much bigger than that.
0:37:06 And the other leagues are getting in on it, right?
0:37:07 The NBA games that are abroad as well.
0:37:10 Bad Bunny has huge international appeal.
0:37:13 But he also has huge American appeal.
0:37:21 And watching conservatives melting down online, I saw someone post, you know, a really unifying show would have been Kid Rock and Jason Aldean.
0:37:32 You know, I assume that they tried to get Taylor Swift, and maybe the wedding planning was taking up too much time, or she just didn’t want to do it.
0:37:38 Like, that to me seems like the number one most unifying show that you could have at this point.
0:37:43 But I think that they were making, you know, a money play, an expansion play.
0:37:45 And it’s good for the future of the league.
0:37:51 And I liked, in his statement, where he said, what I’m feeling goes beyond myself.
0:37:55 It’s for those who came before me and ran countless yards so I could come in and score a touchdown.
0:37:58 This is for my people, my culture, and our history.
0:38:03 And it seemed like a good choice to me.
0:38:07 But what are you feeling?
0:38:07 Yeah.
0:38:22 So, the second best run league in the world is the NFL, just behind the Premier League, which is probably, unfortunately, for the U.K., and this is a statement on the U.K. economy, probably the best export, the best U.K. export is the Premier League.
0:38:23 It’s a very well-run league.
0:38:36 The NFL, given the problems with CTE, given the problems, you know, with Mike Pence showing up to do this performative walkout, it’s an incredibly well-run league.
0:38:39 These teams, I mean, granted, it’s a monopoly.
0:38:41 You and I could not start a football team.
0:38:44 The owners basically get to have a monopoly in their city.
0:38:46 If it’s a big city, there’s two teams, but that’s it.
0:38:51 And it’s just an incredible—and they’ve been smart about expansion.
0:38:53 They’ve been smart about the rule changes.
0:39:08 The biggest benefit that accretes capital to the owners versus other industries is because they wear helmets, no one person—and there’s 40 people on the field or on the team—no one person is able to establish too much pricing or margin power relative to basketball or baseball.
0:39:18 And TV rights have gone up, and essentially, sports teams’ values is entirely correlated to the number of billionaires, which is the fastest-growing cohort in the world.
0:39:23 I’m 70 years old, really fucking unattractive, but I’d really like to be sexy one last time.
0:39:26 I know I’ll buy the Cleveland Browns.
0:39:31 It’s the fastest way to become the most interesting person in your city is to buy one of the sports teams.
0:39:33 It used to be—Democrats used to buy newspapers.
0:39:36 Now you’re just seeing this pathetic, and you’re going to have to sell it for scrap two years later.
0:39:40 But buying a sports team is still kind of the gangster move.
0:39:45 The—I think this is a smart move because—let’s look at the demographics.
0:39:49 All the people outraged here are driving RAV4s, have trucker hats, and no fucking money.
0:39:57 They can’t afford the $15,000 or $20,000 ticket to go to the Super Bowl, and you don’t think they’re going to—you think they’re going to not watch the Super Bowl?
0:40:05 Because for the first time in American history, people under the age of 18 are more non-white than white.
0:40:08 And I think it’s Roger Goodell still runs the league.
0:40:17 They see our future is youth, and none of them are going to boycott the Super Bowl because Bad Bunny is playing there.
0:40:27 It’s like when Nike—I thought one of the greatest marketing moves was when Nike wrapped its arms around Colin Kaepernick because two-thirds of Nike’s sales are to people under the age of 30.
0:40:29 No one under the age of 30 was offended by Colin Kaepernick.
0:40:34 And then two-thirds of their sales top line are international, and no one internationally.
0:40:39 So the people who are burning their Nikes and posting it on TikTok, it was probably the first pair of Nikes they ever owned.
0:40:42 So he’s going where youth is.
0:40:43 He’s going where money is.
0:40:50 And Goodell, quite frankly, is sticking up the middle finger to, you know, people who have dental debt.
0:40:52 And I know I’m sounding disparaging here.
0:40:54 And by the way, for you Trump voters, disparaging means putting down.
0:41:01 That effectively, these people—you know, Honey Badger, the NFL, just don’t give a shit.
0:41:06 The people who are outraged here drive no economic value for the NFL.
0:41:12 And they’re going to show up to their tailgates, and they’re going to watch the Packers or Buffalo.
0:41:15 If I sound like I don’t know anything about—
0:41:16 It’s because you don’t know anything about football.
0:41:17 It’s because I don’t know anything about football.
0:41:18 It could be Buffalo.
0:41:19 I’d love to see Buffalo.
0:41:20 Yeah, I mean—
0:41:21 They deserve it.
0:41:23 It’s so cold there.
0:41:24 By the way, I used to—
0:41:25 Like, as hot as in Doha.
0:41:26 I used to have Roman Gabriel pajamas.
0:41:30 Number 18 when I lived in Orange County, the Los Angeles Rams.
0:41:32 And every year, they’d break my heart.
0:41:34 They’d lose to Fran Tarkenton and the Minnesota Vikings.
0:41:38 And Vince Ferragamo was my new hero after Roman Gabriel.
0:41:41 Roman Gabriel, one of the most lauded athletes from Hawaii.
0:41:45 Anyways, Jack Snow—
0:41:45 I love Hawaii.
0:41:48 Jack Snow, Fred Dreyer, Lance Renssel.
0:41:54 Later arrested for indecent exposure, which kind of adds new—salz at his chip as a wide receiver.
0:41:56 The male brain is so fascinating to me.
0:42:01 Also dated Victoria Principal, the hottest woman ever in the 80s, of Dallas fame.
0:42:03 Anyways, I know a lot about the Rams.
0:42:05 I think this is a good move.
0:42:09 They need to appeal to a younger audience.
0:42:12 This guy—I mean, what do they want to have?
0:42:13 Helen Reddy?
0:42:16 I mean, they need to go younger.
0:42:18 They need to skate to where the puck is.
0:42:19 I think this is a good move.
0:42:20 And you watch.
0:42:27 This performance will get additional viewership because of all the bullshit and controversy around it.
0:42:28 I actually think this is a pretty smart move.
0:42:31 Yeah, the same thing with Kendrick Lamar, right?
0:42:33 That people were so outraged over it.
0:42:35 I mean, I believe absolutely no one who says,
0:42:37 I’m boycotting this, I’m not going to watch.
0:42:40 Because according to that, no one would watch The Five when I’m on.
0:42:43 And yet, somehow, the ratings don’t dip.
0:42:47 And I’m seeing all of this feedback about the horrible things that I’ve said.
0:42:49 So obviously, you were tuned in.
0:42:50 And thank you for your viewership.
0:43:01 I also think, like, Jay-Z probably had something—you know, this is the seventh Super Bowl show that Roc Nation, his company, has produced.
0:43:05 So I’m sure he had some impact on this.
0:43:08 But it is future-proofing the league a bit.
0:43:12 It’s trying something different, which I think is a good thing.
0:43:17 And, you know, those statements, I’m sure, in the meetings about this, you know, where he said,
0:43:22 I’m not going to have American shows because ICE might come and pick up some of my fans.
0:43:23 Guess what?
0:43:25 That resonates with the majority of Americans.
0:43:34 I understand that ICE has a job to do and to get illegals who are here, who committed crimes out of the country.
0:43:41 But most people are not here for Stephen Miller’s wicked plans, right, about picking up people at a fucking Bad Bunny concert.
0:43:45 And it’s not nearly as polarizing as they think.
0:43:53 I also wanted to highlight that, you know, this announcement comes as Dana White, head of UFC, did a big 60 Minutes interview.
0:43:57 And they’re going to have a UFC fight on the lawn at the White House, right?
0:43:59 They’re turning it into an arena.
0:44:01 I’m sure you’ve seen the plans.
0:44:20 And it’s a little bit of a line in the sand, right, of the difference between another, you know, very, quote, masculine league or sport, right, football, with UFC, which I think is, you know, even more masculine or toxic or whatever the right term is.
0:44:21 We have this debate on Fox.
0:44:22 But you know what I mean.
0:44:23 Like, these are dude sports.
0:44:27 I know women like them, but it’s beating each other up.
0:44:35 And the NFL is saying we’re not in lockstep with the administration in the same way that the UFC is.
0:44:36 And I think that that’s important.
0:44:38 They’re, you know, they’re being smart about money.
0:44:42 But it also does send a political signal that I think is welcome.
0:44:44 I’m a fan.
0:44:47 I’m the league I’m most excited about.
0:44:55 I think Peter Thiel starting it is the performance enhanced drug league where there’s you can use any drug you want.
0:44:58 And basically just these creatures from the deep show up.
0:45:04 It’s like Ben Johnson from the Montreal Olympics where his deltoid has its own deltoid.
0:45:08 I can’t wait to see the freak show that would show up.
0:45:11 I would love to have an Olympics or any drug.
0:45:13 We don’t care what you do.
0:45:16 Yeah, that’s the league I’m looking for.
0:45:19 Can you have, like, needles hanging out of your arms as you go?
0:45:23 A cat will prod up your ass five seconds before they have the starting gun.
0:45:26 Whatever gets you to run faster.
0:45:26 Feisty.
0:45:29 I mean, just I’m here for it.
0:45:37 I think that if people want to kill themselves as long as the league is liable for taking care of their CTE after they come down with it, fine.
0:45:37 How about it?
0:45:39 But do I really feel that way?
0:45:40 I don’t know.
0:45:42 It’s already, you already said it.
0:45:42 Lean in.
0:45:43 There he is.
0:45:44 Okay.
0:45:45 Bad Bunny.
0:45:46 I’ve got to listen to his music.
0:45:47 It is a hymn, right?
0:45:48 You’ve already listened to it.
0:45:49 You just don’t know it.
0:45:49 I just don’t know it.
0:45:50 Yeah.
0:45:51 And you probably liked it.
0:45:52 I went to Black Coffee.
0:45:54 I went to Black Coffee.
0:45:54 You’re cool.
0:45:55 You’re hip.
0:45:55 I’m down.
0:45:56 Yeah.
0:45:56 Yeah.
0:45:57 Yeah.
0:45:58 $25,000.
0:46:01 I’m excited for you to buy a sports team, though, in 10 years.
0:46:02 Because then I’ll get to town.
0:46:03 10 years?
0:46:03 Jess.
0:46:06 Well, you said 70 and you’re not 70.
0:46:06 I’ve already invested.
0:46:12 I am one of the 12 new owners in Inter Bogota, the second best team.
0:46:12 Oh, right.
0:46:13 I didn’t know about this.
0:46:13 Yeah.
0:46:16 You and your family are going to come with me.
0:46:19 We’re going to go see a football game in Colombia.
0:46:20 Are you going to be because of my kids?
0:46:22 No, they’re not invited.
0:46:23 They’re not invited.
0:46:25 So, me and my family, meaning me and my husband.
0:46:25 You and your husband.
0:46:25 Yeah.
0:46:26 Yeah.
0:46:26 No, no, no, no kids.
0:46:27 No niños.
0:46:27 The good part.
0:46:28 No.
0:46:28 Yeah.
0:46:30 So, niños están not welcome.
0:46:33 But we’ll buy them shirts.
0:46:35 I’m so excited.
0:46:36 I’m going to see Chelsea tonight.
0:46:38 Anyways, that’s all for this episode.
0:46:41 Thank you for listening to Raging Moderates.
0:46:43 This is a production of Prof G Media.
0:46:44 Our producer is David Toledo.
0:46:47 Our associate producer is Eric Jenicus.
0:46:49 Our technical director is Drew Burrows.
0:46:50 Our engineer is William Flynn.
0:46:52 And our executive producer is Catherine Dillon.
0:46:54 Make sure to follow us wherever you get your podcasts.
0:46:55 You don’t miss an episode.
0:46:57 Just have a great rest of the week.
0:46:58 You too.
0:46:58 See ya.

Scott and Jessica break down who really wins from a government shutdown, Trump’s surprising new peace plan in Gaza, and why MAGA is melting down over the NFL tapping Bad Bunny for the Super Bowl halftime show. 

Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov

Follow Prof G, @profgalloway.

Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPod.

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates 

Jessica is moderating an important and timely conversation on the future of transgender athletes in sports on October 23rd at the 92nd St Y in NYC. Get your tickets here: https://www.92ny.org/event/fair-play 

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices