Summary & Insights
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bsolute ne would have predicted,
s will e New England Patriots in this year’s Super Bowl.
players se teams are New England quarterback Drake May
ceiver Smith Njigba.
not na nning back.
isode i .
t seaso now we’ve updated facts and figures as necessary.
or list
ll Leag henomenally successful piece of the sports and entertainment industry,
ound th rd pass.
rterbac star of the show,
ield to his sprinting receivers
the bal print even further down the field.
excitin to watch.
e passi has gotten even more exciting and more sophisticated,
rive th e’s massive growth.
ball fa certain age who they idolized when they were kids,
a wide r or even a quarterback.
unning
y Dorse
d!
favori er.
the hel
ere big rs during my childhood than the quarterbacks.
of all s Barry Sanders.
ired, I er crying.
s jerse he was with the Eagles, actually.
rst day ool, I think of first or second grade.
st hear we will meet them later.
mer NFL g backs themselves,
epresen y running backs as an agent.
loved a was Franco Harris of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
a litt ssed with Franco.
t into ails here,
e a boo him called Confessions of a Hero Worshipper.
le bit d.
about F
himself e field, but especially how he ran.
like J n, were known for their power, for running people over.
ayers, fast and graceful that it was hard to get a hand on them.
e in th e.
.
er.
play is ature drama packed into just a few seconds.
at once mplicated as a blueprint, as brutal as war, as delicate as ballet.
bit of c trick.
receiv to trick the downfield defenders into being in the wrong place at the right time.
ore pre e, since the running back has to get through a wall of massive defenders.
breaks to open space, that is a special kind of thrill.
rris wa e league, and for a long time after, many of the game’s biggest stars were running backs.
accordi
ears an the average salary of the top players by position, running backs ranked second, just behind quarterbacks.
backs r 5th.
NFL has much more pass-happy these last few decades.
running fall so far?
wasn’t y one with these questions.
sted in laries of running backs have declined and why they seem to be less important parts of the offense than I remembered.
onomist vard and a friend of Freakonomics, wrote a Wall Street Journal column last football season called The Economics of Running Backs.
slow d slow decline of running backs.
why?
e would r an interview to help answer those questions.
had an dea that he insisted would be even more fun.
that r uzzles me.
p and a we could talk about your Wall Street Journal column and make an episode based on this idea, you said, yes, and I would actually like to co-host that episode.
t?
vard ec s or anybody really who’s interested in co-hosting a grubby little podcast.
rush on tephen, so I just want to get closer.
at, I g e serious question I’m asking is, what kind of questions do you hope to answer or explore as we move forward?
a, you’ ed to a bunch of people, but plainly your appetite is deeper than that.
know?
n intri uestion.
hings w ur intuition and your eyeballs can oftentimes be inconsistent with what the actual data tell us.
ition f
a lot i
by hum vior generally, but how we think about the use of my favorite subject, economics, when it comes to issues like valuing positions in a game that’s as complex as football.
nomics Roland Fryer and I explore the decline of the running back.
f the a s gurus who sparked the revolution.
odel, i ery, very clear that passing was far superior to running.
nt expl the position is so difficult.
the mo ent position in the most violent sport on the planet.
will ge unning back perspective.
all th t for taking it to the Super Bowl, and he did the bare minimum.
owl was the Philadelphia Eagles, whose running back, Saquon Barkley, had a historically great season.
f a run ck renaissance?
equence e running back decline starting now.
s Radio odcast that explores the hidden side of everything, with your host, Stephen Dubner.
o minds this because I have this job at Harvard.
a seco could have been an NFL player, right?
arvard st.
ded a f anies, and he’s won some major awards for his research on education and policing.
m from ode we made a few years ago called Roland Fryer Refuses to Lie to Black America.
id, he dream of being an economist.
when t ing backs Eric Dickerson and Walter Payton were tearing up the NFL,
e same Warner football.
ootball five.
to race fastest player, and I won, and he said, you’re on the team.
flag fo five and six years old.
onward strap on the pads and go to work.
bout pl as that they had a legitimate draft.
dash.
.
l.
lls.
hed the he fields.
measur up, and then the coaches would select by lottery who went first.
here we rafted as early as like eight or nine years old.
in the
mber on pick.
ew of t ing back position then?
ike you ing of the hill?
it was op Warner football.
told m al talent was what they called running to the light.
figure ere the gaps were and go.
ition.
ix touc a game.
playing ll.
ere rev ck then.
then i arly 80s that running backs were revered.
e cente e game since it began in the mid-1800s.
6 that ward pass was allowed in professional football.
in 192 for its first few decades, passing was rare.
y of pl e ball was snapped to the quarterback, who would then hand
back, ld follow the blocks of his offensive linemen to try to
ensive .
ily exc
and gr affair.
loud of as how people described it.
entally all was not very popular either.
orts ba were baseball and boxing.
1960s , with the rise of the passing game, that football started
rnaut i day.
couple cades, running backs remained the star attraction.
ways re a certain amount of physical sacrifice.
all is l, right?
ning th it’s not just the person in front of you that you’re going
rom the nd taking hits at knees.
up on.
dies th
you st nking about this decline in the value of the running back?
been a ecline of running backs.
e posit
my boys paid less when these quarterbacks who aren’t nearly as tough as
eing pa ?
a of Ba ders, Walter Payton, Emmitt Smith.
hese re eally explosive running backs just because they look like pure
t in me them to be paid more.
unders hat marginal value is what matters, and that’s what’s happening.
search to work.
do was through and just verify those basic statistics, right?
s as a f total spend of running backs relative to quarterbacks.
‘s what nd out.
intuiti quickly that the proportion of spend for running backs has
and qu cks much higher.
rbacks gher, everybody else on the offensive team.
backs, had the biggest drop relative to any other position.
erage s f a starting quarterback in the NFL was just over $30 million.
rting r backs, $7 million.
nty of backs who are considered superstars.
rick He sh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey.
d like ars.
are amo five highest paid players on their team.
ed whet s was a supply story or a demand story.
e runni s just not as good as they used to be?
ger val running backs had to offer?
I did w a bunch of supply side theories.
ed all a we could on passing yards, running yards over the years, by team, etc.
to und the characteristics of the players.
bine st s and all the data we could collect from there in terms of 40 speed, three-cone drill speeds, which is a measure of explosiveness, bench press, all those kinds of things.
a showc re teams assess the abilities of the college players they are looking to draft.
as that g backs, in terms of their abilities in the combine, have not changed.
in has anged.
cause i team sport, the supply of the other people around them hasn’t changed much.
d is th ted value of a passing play relative to a running play.
ms want imize wins, maximize revenue.
that is ou score a lot of points.
lot of is that you pass the ball more.
ted to om some running backs.
st inte
ur eggs y baking, never pork, little pancakes, light syrup, OJ, you know.
r name t you do.
cCoy.
ecade r back for the Eagles, the Bills, the Chiefs, and the Bucs.
early m of playing running back.
years
play at ut I love the game so much.
I was n I was really five.
at five
on.
l it hi
was di .
out in ghborhoods, we would call this thing free-for-all.
ven, ei s, and we would throw the ball, and one dude had to make all eight guys miss.
ar from ike, what it’s like playing running back.
f it is , physical, how much of it can be taught versus instincts?
t uniqu ions on the field because you’re the farthest one back, so you see everything going on.
ck, you job to do every single play.
y can t lay off.
on’t ha because we’re either running the ball or we’re blocking or we’re in the passing routes.
eally t l, natural gifts from God.
dying a ning.
oung ba is let your natural instincts happen, right?
of the learning, like, okay, every defense has a weak point.
‘m, lik ind that.
ew, why running back market like it is today?
like t ent situation is unfair?
‘s fine
you’re g me that you’d be a great difference maker as a running back.
play q ack, I can’t get paid the right value for my position.
hat bec don’t play quarterback, I got to play elite level every year to get elite money.
can pl e average for years, and one year be pretty good, and now you’re about to get elite money?
bs, rea ally good running back, played on bad teams and still played well.
th the , he said, yo, you know, I led the league in rushing, and they didn’t offer me a contract.
world he quarterback leads the league in passing yards, and he don’t get offered a contract?
nd, I d e any Super Bowl winners in the last 20 years with a mediocre quarterback, maybe Brad Johnson of the Tampa Bay Bucs.
average g backs and really good quarterbacks.
at the back position is valued more?
ecause quarterbacks in the last five, six years, these guys have been like all pro quarterbacks.
ne in t
e in th
n there
gular g ning Super Bowls.
sed to the Kansas City Chiefs, and I won the championship with them guys.
had to ck in the fourth quarter to win that game.
oss the we’re playing the Niners.
game p ion was, all we got to do was get the third down.
s quart that was paid all this money to throw the ball on third down.
G.
.
ike 40- ng passes the whole playoffs.
unning arried them.
all th t for taking him to the Super Bowl, and he did the bare minimum.
k.
Barkley that good, and you’d rather pay Dan Jones.
t fair?
e.
dn’t fo e psychodrama with the New York Giants that McCoy was talking about.
name t es up again and again in the argument about the value of a running back.
the mon ason he had last year with the Eagles.
interes an that.
kley in 18 draft with the second overall pick.
New Yo ed from good to very good.
imes, a Giants’ offensive line was weak.
nsidere running back.
not of a new contract.
what’s a franchise tag.
that al team to keep a good player for one year at a relatively high salary,
him be free agent and pursue a longer-term deal.
d Barkl his one-year hold, they gave their quarterback, Daniel Jones, a four-year contract averaging $40 million a year.
a free he left the Giants and signed a three-year contract with the Philadelphia Eagles for about $12 million a year.
rd of w iel Jones was being paid.
nd Bark the following year?
the bes ns an NFL running back has ever had, and his Eagles won the Super Bowl.
so bad the Giants benched him and then released him.
asked, that fair?
be the ord.
alue.
ing pla s the value of a passing play.
e.
al ques o teams run too often or do they not run often enough?
, a spo a scientist with ESPN.
his que and so people came along and they started to analyze the question, and they didn’t really have the right tools.
on I wa y eager to speak with you is that Roland wrote this piece in the Wall Street Journal about the decline of running back salaries.
that if to point to one person in the universe who is perhaps most responsible for that decline, it might be you.
m that or blame?
st it.
ger mov hat I may have been at the forefront of it, but I certainly wasn’t alone.
in that movement then.
my hob ch was football stats and what eventually became known as analytics.
were o obby at the time because you were a U.S. Navy pilot, correct?
ol, mad to F-18s, flew single-seed fighters for my career in the Navy.
terey t school, and that’s where I learned my stats.
complet less.
going this in the Navy?
of the thought, gosh, the level of analysis in football is so bad.
y jobs getting out of the Navy and doing what you do now?
le bit .
Virgini
hree le maybe?
nt stuf while that didn’t last too long.
r choic
ad and two kids, so it was just incompatible.
rking a nother three-letter institution, the NFL.
ers.
ween th and doing football for the day job, I was a defense contractor.
and st expert and instructor, and I would shirk all my daily responsibilities
numbers y long.
e origi .
ler con on with my good friend, co-worker, John Moser.
me arou like, defense wins championships, right?
u know?
l, does
, but d really?
by tha
od, I h s software left over from grad school.
put al tats online now.
6.
ow what
d the d d by the end of lunch, we can answer this question forever.
nesis o know, football analytics for me.
this, I read Moneyball.
existed
becaus aseball people tried to put it onto football.
nd the analysis just doesn’t work on football.
litary und, and I’m like, this is war.
wo-play theory.
ook hol
you say our military background contributed to the way that you frame
e tryin swer in football?
zation to it.
the mi you have a mix of strategies.
ys do t always do that.
edictab way that keeps your enemy or your opponent on his heels.
inker i ary aviation named John Boyd who invented this thing called the OODA loop, if you’ve ever heard of that.
my conf d disoriented and in a state of ambiguity is one of the goals in American fighting theory.
same wa
etting, ou’re trying to advance into enemy territory, which weapon is more valuable, the ground game or the passing game?
tic app llowed him to answer that question.
someth led expected points and expected points added.
ancy mo ed on down distance and yard line.
odel, t first thing I did was just aggregate by play type.
ry clea at moment that passing was far superior to running.
ar too
w that use if they’re doing each in the optimum mix, the payoffs would equalize.
people ly refer to in game theory as the Nash equilibrium.
have an igent opponent, you can assume that that equilibrium is going to be the optimum mix.
ut of w
, we kn you need to pass more.
t did t
o perme football world.
ss.
.
o back 1920s or the 1950s, but pick whatever seems like a sensible starting point in modern NFL history.
runnin evolved and was eventually superseded by the passing game.
is is a tarting point for the modern era.
of our ew up learning our football.
es.
ing was very difficult.
ch bett tegy.
he leag ively rewrote the rules that had to do with passing.
ntact.
ld pass radically changed.
till ca up to this day in terms of exploiting those rule changes.
t syste ted to exploit the new rules.
nged th again.
he pote the running game compared to the passing game has decreased steadily.
tellin simply that football people, including coaches and analytics people like you,
ng over ars that passing is more valuable than running.
eague i ecided over many years to make passing more prominent by rule changes.
st arri this new circumstance where passing is just more valuable than running.
ve the back in the modern football economy?
going s valuable.
ck is n g to carry you to a Super Bowl.
in gene .
nking, stand that running backs have become somewhat less valuable, but are they really that much less valuable?
questio o do with something that happened in 2011.
sn’t fu reciate that the NFL is a huge business.
ter the
and yo listening to Freakonomics Radio.
omist R ryer and I teamed up to try to learn why running back salaries have fallen so much since their heyday.
in par ere a player is selected in the NFL draft.
backs ken in the first two rounds of the draft.
re two.
his dec
about lytics revolution that showed the value of passing versus running.
ule cha e NFL adopted to privilege the passing game.
er big in 2011 that shook things up for NFL rookies generally and running backs in particular.
l of yo ive years.
in.
ng back ur teams over eight seasons, including a Super Bowl win with the Seattle Seahawks.
ball co y for CBS Sports.
with hi
e runni market is so challenging today?
.
potato he conversation when it comes to the running backs.
ective ing agreement.
n NFL t d the NFL Players Association, the union that represents the athletes.
er a CB ong and often contentious as they establish pay standards and other terms for years to come.
agreed 2020 and runs through the 2030 season.
went i ect in 2011.
BA was tive affair for the players.
ue reve se from 42 percent to 47 percent.
also ca some restrictions for rookies.
ted pla ld freely negotiate a contract with the team that chose him.
d deals ams when the player didn’t play well or got hurt.
created ie wage scale that set contract terms based on draft order.
four-ye ract with a cost-controlled fifth-year option that their team could exercise.
till in today, and that’s what Robert Turbin is talking about when he tells Roland Fryer that the team has control of you for five years.
come i league as a 22-year-old rookie, and basically you are handcuffed for five years.
ou don’ an opportunity to re-up or get a second contract until you’re 27 years old.
in foot ncluding quarterback, a player is just coming into his prime at age 27.
e for r backs.
27 year if you’ve carried the ball 250 times per year, they’re going to look at those numbers and say,
ve it t he used to.
e for m ning backs.
.
hat dev he position because let’s say you were able to get out of that contract or re-up out of that contract after three years.
r-old b ll in his prime with an opportunity to maximize on economics from a contractual standpoint.
is som ionship between the CBA and durability, which is if you’ve got to wait for five years, and as you say, you’ve carried the ball all this number of times, then executives are going to look at that and say, how much more does he have in the tank?
rt of i gh the CBA, right?
is, tha iously not a full career.
of car would imagine for yourself.
e avera ess than three.
play ei a back.
good.
hen I w ndianapolis.
nd I’m to a scout from another team, and I dislocated my elbow in week six of that year.
k.
s, how you?
other y so left.
talking
ght pro r a lot of executives until proven wrong.
u’re gu til proven innocent as a running back.
ears, t age career length for an NFL running back was around five and a half years.
droppi t around the 2011 collective bargaining agreement.
age len around two and a half years.
anothe r running back, Robert Smith.
Smith for eight years.
h the M a Vikings.
the 20 on.
of a ba honor to play the position because it is a very physical position.
when y to block players that outweigh you by a large amount.
int of
NFL and e games for Fox Sports.
he runn k position goes deep.
k has t in their hands more.
think, the greatest opportunities to impact the outcome of a game.
ay, 11 e trying to hit the same person, and that’s the guy who has the ball.
g part, ‘s also the rewarding part that you were able to get by them.
rd for gest average per touchdown run at more than 26 yards.
ou, it’ ling that I wish everybody could experience when you break into the open and you know you’re going to score a touchdown.
re lean k in a chair and you almost tip and fall and you get this rush of adrenaline.
en burs citement that I’m about to score a touchdown.
rsts of ment are, of course, offset by thousands of hours of training and by the physical punishment.
okie se ut in that injury, I also broke the bottom of my femur and did some damage to the articular cartilage,
cartil t’s on the tip of the bone.
e a mic ure.
ere the n the exposed surface of the bone.
o have ain after my last season in the league.
uple of shy of my 29th birthday.
son I d iss any games and I still needed to have knee surgery after the year.
I said u know, if you would pay any amount of money to get your health back,
n what of money is worth the very real chance that you’ll lose it?
ion tha oing on in my head.
he game did.
literal s better to walk away early than to limp away late.
lot of to walk away.
ond foo hat excited him.
tronome olific reader.
his bro ng duties, he is working on a health and wellness startup.
good m a younger man.
paid hi illion over five years.
the be is career, he ranked second in the NFL in rushing yards.
then t ning back money was drying up.
ague-im alary cap.
tly try figure out which players they can give less money to
re mone e players they think they cannot win without.
ad fall the cannot-win-without list.
ecades, venues have more than doubled to about $20 billion a year.
percen are of revenues, that means the overall player pool has also
ave bar red in that gain.
backs lbacks over the past two decades has risen around 11%.
sive po , salaries have risen at least 90%.
e me, j an agent.
nders a ident at the Sports and Entertainment Group, a full-service
shingto
for 20- ars.
s do yo sent now, your firm?
40 NFL at any given time.
larger es.
me that nt is busy and important when you’re making a deal.
w much ance that deal requires as time goes on.
bout, i ife cycle of an athlete, how involved are you?
very as our clients’ lives on a daily basis.
he leas t of time actually negotiating contracts.
ist, a nship therapist, some type of preacher or pastor when need be.
nselor?
ove doi
I get a rom a player who’s injured.
ith tha
player moving and he needs to be guiding in the right direction.
‘ll cal d ask me what TV they should purchase.
with th ng people involved with them in a very intimate and deep fashion.
epresen layers, what would you say that you’re most known for?
e actua wn as the running back agency.
ore run cks over the last 20 years than any other agency.
Matt F evin Coleman, Jordan Howard, James White, Sweetfeet from New England, Kendall Hunter, Le’Veon Bell, Michael Carter.
er this ho’s now with the Rams.
ent the hare of running backs?
en.
ew year ot into the receiver, cornerback, that kind of market.
the bu of representing running backs, but we did start shaping our roster a little bit.
use you sing the money yourselves.
you’re ing to the market.
this, w u guys were known as a running back agency, and then the market for running backs changes really pretty dramatically.
repres the running backs?
ts who rting out, who don’t have as much luxury to pick their roster the way you guys do?
works?
you sa
uring t few years who just didn’t represent running backs at all.
were r backs in the market looking for representation.
d deman .
ing bac positions.
ere you nd really good players all across the draft and after the draft.
the ru uarterback.
total of yards that a team has.
yardage ing not from the running backs, but it’s coming from the quarterback.
f the l as quarterbacks who can run as well as the running back.
nges th litated an opening up of the passing game?
etimes fully appreciate that the NFL is a huge business.
the hi evel.
e ultim l.
ing to 0 billion industry in the next 10 years.
over th 10 years kind of a cultural shift, not just in the NFL, but across sports.
see the e of the game.
unders at at the end of the day, these are corporations that are going to be responsive to their shareholders and consumers.
ifferen
the bal e air, the acrobatic catches and the leaps.
e long
ssing.
10-7 g defensive battle.
the mid ebacker and the running back.
that.
genera bsolutely boring.
and dem
ning qu ck.
ve some nce in the devaluation for the running back position.
eally d and look at root causes,
poratio actual NFL, responding to their consumer base and what their consumer base wants to see.
he NFL ed to what the market wants, give me some specific examples of how the league has added leverage to make passing more prominent, either passing and or quarterback play more prominent.
f rule , obviously, to make it a higher scoring game with more offense.
een han d.
ce rule
uarterb
re good e safety of the players.
root of ason, it’s to increase the scoring.
that is h passing.
juries ishability generally.
physic shment that comes along with running back position, where it ranks with other offensive players.
ut it.
the mo ent position in the most violent sport on the planet.
etting every play.
they’r ng hit.
g back ’10”, 215 pounds, and he’s blocking a 325-pound defensive lineman.
rs are bigger and faster every year.
r the r back is real.
runnin getting through the season unscathed, no injuries, is slim to none.
ams, be f that, they go with running backs by committee.
king ab e when he says running backs by committee is when teams substitute in multiple players throughout the game or the season to share the workload.
Burke, PN analyst.
of the velopments that’s affected the running back position is that teams have realized that you don’t necessarily need a great running back.
great r game.
eople w otball, they see the quarterback hand the ball to the running back who, when a play succeeds, he gets through the line and then keeps running and gains a bunch of yards and finally gets tackled.
my God, unning back is so talented.
ally ha to make that run a success.
to be r nine blocks that are all essential.
of con e miracles for run play to really work.
hem up looks perfect on the whiteboard.
os of t , so many things have to go right for it to work.
t’s bea
execut se blocks.
ut the ve line.
back w ies the ball, who succeeds.
five or her guys who are probably averaging, what, around 290 pounds on the offensive line?
ore now
really attention to offensive linemen, but really it’s mostly their moms.
of the are necessary for it to work.
ean abo market?
out it line and the blocking and the scheme are responsible for the first three or four yards of a gain on a run play.
on, it elusiveness of the running back.
ld syst e if I have a good enough line to get a running back out to three, four, five yards, now he’s into the secondary and it’s up to him to make defenders miss their tackles.
ese big ive gains.
mprove nning game, you don’t go out and just get a great running back.
ith the ive line, make sure you’re calling good plays, and then the cherry on top might be a star running back.
break, ning backs have any chance of returning to their previous glory?
cal, ri
ell bot ng enough, they’ll come back.
s Radio e will come back right after this.
spond w n something is taken away from us.
to talk loss aversion, the fact that we feel more pain from loss than we feel pleasure from a gain of the same size.
an ath o’s been working hard since age five or six, driven by the very slim hope that you might live out your dream and become an NFL running back,
discov your position has been downgraded.
ck in t can still make millions of dollars, but keep in mind that A, running back careers are short,
teamma l be making more millions than you.
ptions?
oldout.
quon Ba nd Josh Jacobs did in 2023, sitting out training camp after being franchise tagged by their respective teams,
and th egas Raiders.
heir te the end of the season, and both have prospered with their new teams,
gles an s with the Green Bay Packers.
‘t alwa s planned.
Steele ing back Le’Veon Bell, one of the best backs in the league at the time,
tire se ther than play under a franchise tag.
Burke, PN data scientist.
cut his short, maybe not by a full year,
rishabi just age-based, not necessarily wear and tear-based.
ery sli t the next guy up, who costs a fraction of what Le’Veon wants to be paid,
rather illion dollars for 95% of what Le’Veon Bell is
n for 1
contrac the Jets, but then he wasn’t very good there,
kind o
advise hen he was doing really well with the Steelers on his rookie contract?
d him t take what he can get.
of his .
e’s try accomplish, but he’s just up against reality.
the Jet
ish tea f 32 that’s going to overpay you,
one.
e Jets, honest.
for sur
time w rey Whitney, who we heard from earlier.
t want uss the Bell situation.
hat oth ons are available to dissatisfied running backs?
ere was empt at creating a carve-out,
ific la ignation proposed by a group called the International Brotherhood
ning Ba
NLRB, ional Labor Relations Board, for what labor lawyers call a unit clarification.
e uniqu cal demands of the running back position set them apart from other football players
d, ther be allowed to break away from the NFL Players Union and negotiate on their own.
e, but B rejected their request.
h, the Vikings running back, what he thought of this idea.
ave tal ut in countless episodes on Freakonomics,
carefu trying to change one variable in a system without impacting the system
aven’t ated.
market ng to decide where they value players the most
y is go make the most sense for that team.
nd hold ren’t the answer, how about a good old-fashioned running back Zoom call?
ler, no the Washington Commanders, organized a Zoom with other top running backs,
Jacobs, ian McCaffrey, and Nick Chubb, to discuss the state of their position.
really we can do, Chubb said afterward.
uffed w situation.
ition t production hurts us.
and run yards the next year, they’re going to say, you’re probably worn down.
Eagles to the Super Bowl and won the Super Bowl thanks to the huge contributions of running back Saquon Barkley.
the NFL l back in love with the running back?
years, seeing a little bit of resurgence in the running game.
cal, ri
ell bot ng enough, they’ll come back.
sports Jeffrey Whitney.
ack, wh e most important duty that they have?
ill be nning the football.
n and c the ball and running as part of it.
g some unning backs, again, who can do it all, can catch it, can run it, good in pass protection.
a relat a family friend who’s 11, 12 years old, great athlete.
that k hey’re hoping for a long career in the NFL?
heck o he running back position?
me a lo per.
me a sp t, a long snapper or a kicker.
ed.
advise o do.
to be rterback, be the long snapper or be the kicker.
sode ab economics of the long snapper position.
s the M otonous Job in the World Pay $1 Million?
want t n.
s, LaSh oy, the six-time pro bowler, was more optimistic about their future.
lking w and Fryer.
league
oing to e Super Bowl, they want to copycat that.
the be ams, right?
ng back
re they playoff team without Josh Jacobs?
s.
ent on am.
ough, i n Park is not there?
he MVP ar.
k total erent.
ce?
Lamar J throwing the ball better than he’s ever thrown before.
d?
ket has up because these players are earning these things.
at beca thing about owners, they want to make their money and they want to win.
nce to McCoy’s optimism.
e runni has recovered a bit.
of the from scrimmage were run plays.
low.
3.4% ru , and this year was up to 43.7%.
ear wit r Vikings running back Robert Smith, I asked what he thought of the uptick.
o see t kdown.
unning
erbacks an run the football, and they’re extremely difficult to stop.
r Jacks n a Patrick Mahomes, a Josh Allen, you’re going to have some guys that may distort those numbers.
s selec as because the better teams are constructed in a way where they can run the football in the red zone the way they want to.
the lea so they’re going to get more runs that way.
there e somewhat of a return to the retro world of run first?
point it takes on a running play.
ld poin quon Barkley and Derrick Henry, and those guys are outliers.
Barkle ith the Giants last year.
enry di Tennessee last year.
oing wi r new teams this year with Philadelphia and the Ravens.
are ju much better.
the po other way that, yeah, well, of course, you put these guys behind the great offensive lines.
articul set a record for a number of yards before first contact this year.
the pe ce of running backs, there’s no way that it would be significant enough where everybody would say, well, all we got to do is go get a Saquon Barkley.
go get ick Henry.
it did k for those guys behind those other offensive lines.
ng to h spend the money to get the offensive line in place that’s going to allow those guys to have Saquon Barkley-like numbers or Derrick Henry-like numbers.
grees w th that Henry and Barkley are the exceptions that prove the rule.
s diffe nd it goes back to his military training.
ansitiv
one sup actic.
are all g pass blockers and receivers and throwers and everything.
bunch blockers and running backs left on the table.
ies, li going to go grab them, and I’m going to be the best running team they’ve ever seen.
o be un d for us.
be pre ective.
teams away with that.
conomis d and co-host, Roland Fryer, and I asked him, if a young running back came to him for advice, what would he say?
w what t me to say.
changes cularly in something as intricate as the NFL, then certain positions will be more or less valued.
e will that.
uld be when you do get the ball.
your W eet Journal piece goes like this.
likes ults, meaning the results of your analysis, finding that running backs get paid less because they’re less valuable, relatively.
the kid hopes for a running back renaissance.
s cool, and collected, and economist acting as you are right now, saying, come on, the market is the market, there’s part of you emotionally that’s attached to my argument.
ved in e I became an economist.
Juju, t from Daytona, to advise the players.
, again is all being driven by market forces.
eal, bu re not always predictable.
we’ll b ng about in the lead up to next year’s Super Bowl.
yer for ing and collaborating on this episode.
.
ll our
rt Smit rt Turbin, Jeffrey Whitney, and Brian Burke.
d a gre explaining a complicated game that many of us love, but which many others are often baffled by.
ly to y listening.
y soon new episode.
re of y .
eone el .
is prod Stitcher and Renbud Radio.
ire arc Freakonomics Radio on any podcast app.
ad a tr t or the show notes, that’s at Freakonomics.com.
oduced ated by Tao Jacobs.
anor Os
dio net aff also includes Augusta Chapman, Dalvin Abouaji, Ellen Frankman, Elsa Hernandez, Gabriel Roth, Elaria Montenacourt, Jasmine Klinger, Jeremy Johnson, and Zach Lipinski.
r. Fort the Hitchhikers, and our composer is Luis Guerra.
u for l g.
ried?
e who I run faster than backwards, so that’s a no.
f knee s.
o get m
a serie rthdays.
dio net he hidden side of everything.
bsolute ne would have predicted,
s will e New England Patriots in this year’s Super Bowl.
players se teams are New England quarterback Drake May
ceiver Smith Njigba.
not na nning back.
isode i .
t seaso now we’ve updated facts and figures as necessary.
or list
ll Leag henomenally successful piece of the sports and entertainment industry,
ound th rd pass.
rterbac star of the show,
ield to his sprinting receivers
the bal print even further down the field.
excitin to watch.
e passi has gotten even more exciting and more sophisticated,
rive th e’s massive growth.
ball fa certain age who they idolized when they were kids,
a wide r or even a quarterback.
unning
y Dorse
d!
favori er.
the hel
ere big rs during my childhood than the quarterbacks.
of all s Barry Sanders.
ired, I er crying.
s jerse he was with the Eagles, actually.
rst day ool, I think of first or second grade.
st hear we will meet them later.
mer NFL g backs themselves,
epresen y running backs as an agent.
loved a was Franco Harris of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
a litt ssed with Franco.
t into ails here,
e a boo him called Confessions of a Hero Worshipper.
le bit d.
about F
himself e field, but especially how he ran.
like J n, were known for their power, for running people over.
ayers, fast and graceful that it was hard to get a hand on them.
e in th e.
.
er.
play is ature drama packed into just a few seconds.
at once mplicated as a blueprint, as brutal as war, as delicate as ballet.
bit of c trick.
receiv to trick the downfield defenders into being in the wrong place at the right time.
ore pre e, since the running back has to get through a wall of massive defenders.
breaks to open space, that is a special kind of thrill.
rris wa e league, and for a long time after, many of the game’s biggest stars were running backs.
accordi
ears an the average salary of the top players by position, running backs ranked second, just behind quarterbacks.
backs r 5th.
NFL has much more pass-happy these last few decades.
running fall so far?
wasn’t y one with these questions.
sted in laries of running backs have declined and why they seem to be less important parts of the offense than I remembered.
onomist vard and a friend of Freakonomics, wrote a Wall Street Journal column last football season called The Economics of Running Backs.
slow d slow decline of running backs.
why?
e would r an interview to help answer those questions.
had an dea that he insisted would be even more fun.
that r uzzles me.
p and a we could talk about your Wall Street Journal column and make an episode based on this idea, you said, yes, and I would actually like to co-host that episode.
t?
vard ec s or anybody really who’s interested in co-hosting a grubby little podcast.
rush on tephen, so I just want to get closer.
at, I g e serious question I’m asking is, what kind of questions do you hope to answer or explore as we move forward?
a, you’ ed to a bunch of people, but plainly your appetite is deeper than that.
know?
n intri uestion.
hings w ur intuition and your eyeballs can oftentimes be inconsistent with what the actual data tell us.
ition f
a lot i
by hum vior generally, but how we think about the use of my favorite subject, economics, when it comes to issues like valuing positions in a game that’s as complex as football.
nomics Roland Fryer and I explore the decline of the running back.
f the a s gurus who sparked the revolution.
odel, i ery, very clear that passing was far superior to running.
nt expl the position is so difficult.
the mo ent position in the most violent sport on the planet.
will ge unning back perspective.
all th t for taking it to the Super Bowl, and he did the bare minimum.
owl was the Philadelphia Eagles, whose running back, Saquon Barkley, had a historically great season.
f a run ck renaissance?
equence e running back decline starting now.
s Radio odcast that explores the hidden side of everything, with your host, Stephen Dubner.
o minds this because I have this job at Harvard.
a seco could have been an NFL player, right?
arvard st.
ded a f anies, and he’s won some major awards for his research on education and policing.
m from ode we made a few years ago called Roland Fryer Refuses to Lie to Black America.
id, he dream of being an economist.
when t ing backs Eric Dickerson and Walter Payton were tearing up the NFL,
e same Warner football.
ootball five.
to race fastest player, and I won, and he said, you’re on the team.
flag fo five and six years old.
onward strap on the pads and go to work.
bout pl as that they had a legitimate draft.
dash.
.
l.
lls.
hed the he fields.
measur up, and then the coaches would select by lottery who went first.
here we rafted as early as like eight or nine years old.
in the
mber on pick.
ew of t ing back position then?
ike you ing of the hill?
it was op Warner football.
told m al talent was what they called running to the light.
figure ere the gaps were and go.
ition.
ix touc a game.
playing ll.
ere rev ck then.
then i arly 80s that running backs were revered.
e cente e game since it began in the mid-1800s.
6 that ward pass was allowed in professional football.
in 192 for its first few decades, passing was rare.
y of pl e ball was snapped to the quarterback, who would then hand
back, ld follow the blocks of his offensive linemen to try to
ensive .
ily exc
and gr affair.
loud of as how people described it.
entally all was not very popular either.
orts ba were baseball and boxing.
1960s , with the rise of the passing game, that football started
rnaut i day.
couple cades, running backs remained the star attraction.
ways re a certain amount of physical sacrifice.
all is l, right?
ning th it’s not just the person in front of you that you’re going
rom the nd taking hits at knees.
up on.
dies th
you st nking about this decline in the value of the running back?
been a ecline of running backs.
e posit
my boys paid less when these quarterbacks who aren’t nearly as tough as
eing pa ?
a of Ba ders, Walter Payton, Emmitt Smith.
hese re eally explosive running backs just because they look like pure
t in me them to be paid more.
unders hat marginal value is what matters, and that’s what’s happening.
search to work.
do was through and just verify those basic statistics, right?
s as a f total spend of running backs relative to quarterbacks.
‘s what nd out.
intuiti quickly that the proportion of spend for running backs has
and qu cks much higher.
rbacks gher, everybody else on the offensive team.
backs, had the biggest drop relative to any other position.
erage s f a starting quarterback in the NFL was just over $30 million.
rting r backs, $7 million.
nty of backs who are considered superstars.
rick He sh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey.
d like ars.
are amo five highest paid players on their team.
ed whet s was a supply story or a demand story.
e runni s just not as good as they used to be?
ger val running backs had to offer?
I did w a bunch of supply side theories.
ed all a we could on passing yards, running yards over the years, by team, etc.
to und the characteristics of the players.
bine st s and all the data we could collect from there in terms of 40 speed, three-cone drill speeds, which is a measure of explosiveness, bench press, all those kinds of things.
a showc re teams assess the abilities of the college players they are looking to draft.
as that g backs, in terms of their abilities in the combine, have not changed.
in has anged.
cause i team sport, the supply of the other people around them hasn’t changed much.
d is th ted value of a passing play relative to a running play.
ms want imize wins, maximize revenue.
that is ou score a lot of points.
lot of is that you pass the ball more.
ted to om some running backs.
st inte
ur eggs y baking, never pork, little pancakes, light syrup, OJ, you know.
r name t you do.
cCoy.
ecade r back for the Eagles, the Bills, the Chiefs, and the Bucs.
early m of playing running back.
years
play at ut I love the game so much.
I was n I was really five.
at five
on.
l it hi
was di .
out in ghborhoods, we would call this thing free-for-all.
ven, ei s, and we would throw the ball, and one dude had to make all eight guys miss.
ar from ike, what it’s like playing running back.
f it is , physical, how much of it can be taught versus instincts?
t uniqu ions on the field because you’re the farthest one back, so you see everything going on.
ck, you job to do every single play.
y can t lay off.
on’t ha because we’re either running the ball or we’re blocking or we’re in the passing routes.
eally t l, natural gifts from God.
dying a ning.
oung ba is let your natural instincts happen, right?
of the learning, like, okay, every defense has a weak point.
‘m, lik ind that.
ew, why running back market like it is today?
like t ent situation is unfair?
‘s fine
you’re g me that you’d be a great difference maker as a running back.
play q ack, I can’t get paid the right value for my position.
hat bec don’t play quarterback, I got to play elite level every year to get elite money.
can pl e average for years, and one year be pretty good, and now you’re about to get elite money?
bs, rea ally good running back, played on bad teams and still played well.
th the , he said, yo, you know, I led the league in rushing, and they didn’t offer me a contract.
world he quarterback leads the league in passing yards, and he don’t get offered a contract?
nd, I d e any Super Bowl winners in the last 20 years with a mediocre quarterback, maybe Brad Johnson of the Tampa Bay Bucs.
average g backs and really good quarterbacks.
at the back position is valued more?
ecause quarterbacks in the last five, six years, these guys have been like all pro quarterbacks.
ne in t
e in th
n there
gular g ning Super Bowls.
sed to the Kansas City Chiefs, and I won the championship with them guys.
had to ck in the fourth quarter to win that game.
oss the we’re playing the Niners.
game p ion was, all we got to do was get the third down.
s quart that was paid all this money to throw the ball on third down.
G.
.
ike 40- ng passes the whole playoffs.
unning arried them.
all th t for taking him to the Super Bowl, and he did the bare minimum.
k.
Barkley that good, and you’d rather pay Dan Jones.
t fair?
e.
dn’t fo e psychodrama with the New York Giants that McCoy was talking about.
name t es up again and again in the argument about the value of a running back.
the mon ason he had last year with the Eagles.
interes an that.
kley in 18 draft with the second overall pick.
New Yo ed from good to very good.
imes, a Giants’ offensive line was weak.
nsidere running back.
not of a new contract.
what’s a franchise tag.
that al team to keep a good player for one year at a relatively high salary,
him be free agent and pursue a longer-term deal.
d Barkl his one-year hold, they gave their quarterback, Daniel Jones, a four-year contract averaging $40 million a year.
a free he left the Giants and signed a three-year contract with the Philadelphia Eagles for about $12 million a year.
rd of w iel Jones was being paid.
nd Bark the following year?
the bes ns an NFL running back has ever had, and his Eagles won the Super Bowl.
so bad the Giants benched him and then released him.
asked, that fair?
be the ord.
alue.
ing pla s the value of a passing play.
e.
al ques o teams run too often or do they not run often enough?
, a spo a scientist with ESPN.
his que and so people came along and they started to analyze the question, and they didn’t really have the right tools.
on I wa y eager to speak with you is that Roland wrote this piece in the Wall Street Journal about the decline of running back salaries.
that if to point to one person in the universe who is perhaps most responsible for that decline, it might be you.
m that or blame?
st it.
ger mov hat I may have been at the forefront of it, but I certainly wasn’t alone.
in that movement then.
my hob ch was football stats and what eventually became known as analytics.
were o obby at the time because you were a U.S. Navy pilot, correct?
ol, mad to F-18s, flew single-seed fighters for my career in the Navy.
terey t school, and that’s where I learned my stats.
complet less.
going this in the Navy?
of the thought, gosh, the level of analysis in football is so bad.
y jobs getting out of the Navy and doing what you do now?
le bit .
Virgini
hree le maybe?
nt stuf while that didn’t last too long.
r choic
ad and two kids, so it was just incompatible.
rking a nother three-letter institution, the NFL.
ers.
ween th and doing football for the day job, I was a defense contractor.
and st expert and instructor, and I would shirk all my daily responsibilities
numbers y long.
e origi .
ler con on with my good friend, co-worker, John Moser.
me arou like, defense wins championships, right?
u know?
l, does
, but d really?
by tha
od, I h s software left over from grad school.
put al tats online now.
6.
ow what
d the d d by the end of lunch, we can answer this question forever.
nesis o know, football analytics for me.
this, I read Moneyball.
existed
becaus aseball people tried to put it onto football.
nd the analysis just doesn’t work on football.
litary und, and I’m like, this is war.
wo-play theory.
ook hol
you say our military background contributed to the way that you frame
e tryin swer in football?
zation to it.
the mi you have a mix of strategies.
ys do t always do that.
edictab way that keeps your enemy or your opponent on his heels.
inker i ary aviation named John Boyd who invented this thing called the OODA loop, if you’ve ever heard of that.
my conf d disoriented and in a state of ambiguity is one of the goals in American fighting theory.
same wa
etting, ou’re trying to advance into enemy territory, which weapon is more valuable, the ground game or the passing game?
tic app llowed him to answer that question.
someth led expected points and expected points added.
ancy mo ed on down distance and yard line.
odel, t first thing I did was just aggregate by play type.
ry clea at moment that passing was far superior to running.
ar too
w that use if they’re doing each in the optimum mix, the payoffs would equalize.
people ly refer to in game theory as the Nash equilibrium.
have an igent opponent, you can assume that that equilibrium is going to be the optimum mix.
ut of w
, we kn you need to pass more.
t did t
o perme football world.
ss.
.
o back 1920s or the 1950s, but pick whatever seems like a sensible starting point in modern NFL history.
runnin evolved and was eventually superseded by the passing game.
is is a tarting point for the modern era.
of our ew up learning our football.
es.
ing was very difficult.
ch bett tegy.
he leag ively rewrote the rules that had to do with passing.
ntact.
ld pass radically changed.
till ca up to this day in terms of exploiting those rule changes.
t syste ted to exploit the new rules.
nged th again.
he pote the running game compared to the passing game has decreased steadily.
tellin simply that football people, including coaches and analytics people like you,
ng over ars that passing is more valuable than running.
eague i ecided over many years to make passing more prominent by rule changes.
st arri this new circumstance where passing is just more valuable than running.
ve the back in the modern football economy?
going s valuable.
ck is n g to carry you to a Super Bowl.
in gene .
nking, stand that running backs have become somewhat less valuable, but are they really that much less valuable?
questio o do with something that happened in 2011.
sn’t fu reciate that the NFL is a huge business.
ter the
and yo listening to Freakonomics Radio.
omist R ryer and I teamed up to try to learn why running back salaries have fallen so much since their heyday.
in par ere a player is selected in the NFL draft.
backs ken in the first two rounds of the draft.
re two.
his dec
about lytics revolution that showed the value of passing versus running.
ule cha e NFL adopted to privilege the passing game.
er big in 2011 that shook things up for NFL rookies generally and running backs in particular.
l of yo ive years.
in.
ng back ur teams over eight seasons, including a Super Bowl win with the Seattle Seahawks.
ball co y for CBS Sports.
with hi
e runni market is so challenging today?
.
potato he conversation when it comes to the running backs.
ective ing agreement.
n NFL t d the NFL Players Association, the union that represents the athletes.
er a CB ong and often contentious as they establish pay standards and other terms for years to come.
agreed 2020 and runs through the 2030 season.
went i ect in 2011.
BA was tive affair for the players.
ue reve se from 42 percent to 47 percent.
also ca some restrictions for rookies.
ted pla ld freely negotiate a contract with the team that chose him.
d deals ams when the player didn’t play well or got hurt.
created ie wage scale that set contract terms based on draft order.
four-ye ract with a cost-controlled fifth-year option that their team could exercise.
till in today, and that’s what Robert Turbin is talking about when he tells Roland Fryer that the team has control of you for five years.
come i league as a 22-year-old rookie, and basically you are handcuffed for five years.
ou don’ an opportunity to re-up or get a second contract until you’re 27 years old.
in foot ncluding quarterback, a player is just coming into his prime at age 27.
e for r backs.
27 year if you’ve carried the ball 250 times per year, they’re going to look at those numbers and say,
ve it t he used to.
e for m ning backs.
.
hat dev he position because let’s say you were able to get out of that contract or re-up out of that contract after three years.
r-old b ll in his prime with an opportunity to maximize on economics from a contractual standpoint.
is som ionship between the CBA and durability, which is if you’ve got to wait for five years, and as you say, you’ve carried the ball all this number of times, then executives are going to look at that and say, how much more does he have in the tank?
rt of i gh the CBA, right?
is, tha iously not a full career.
of car would imagine for yourself.
e avera ess than three.
play ei a back.
good.
hen I w ndianapolis.
nd I’m to a scout from another team, and I dislocated my elbow in week six of that year.
k.
s, how you?
other y so left.
talking
ght pro r a lot of executives until proven wrong.
u’re gu til proven innocent as a running back.
ears, t age career length for an NFL running back was around five and a half years.
droppi t around the 2011 collective bargaining agreement.
age len around two and a half years.
anothe r running back, Robert Smith.
Smith for eight years.
h the M a Vikings.
the 20 on.
of a ba honor to play the position because it is a very physical position.
when y to block players that outweigh you by a large amount.
int of
NFL and e games for Fox Sports.
he runn k position goes deep.
k has t in their hands more.
think, the greatest opportunities to impact the outcome of a game.
ay, 11 e trying to hit the same person, and that’s the guy who has the ball.
g part, ‘s also the rewarding part that you were able to get by them.
rd for gest average per touchdown run at more than 26 yards.
ou, it’ ling that I wish everybody could experience when you break into the open and you know you’re going to score a touchdown.
re lean k in a chair and you almost tip and fall and you get this rush of adrenaline.
en burs citement that I’m about to score a touchdown.
rsts of ment are, of course, offset by thousands of hours of training and by the physical punishment.
okie se ut in that injury, I also broke the bottom of my femur and did some damage to the articular cartilage,
cartil t’s on the tip of the bone.
e a mic ure.
ere the n the exposed surface of the bone.
o have ain after my last season in the league.
uple of shy of my 29th birthday.
son I d iss any games and I still needed to have knee surgery after the year.
I said u know, if you would pay any amount of money to get your health back,
n what of money is worth the very real chance that you’ll lose it?
ion tha oing on in my head.
he game did.
literal s better to walk away early than to limp away late.
lot of to walk away.
ond foo hat excited him.
tronome olific reader.
his bro ng duties, he is working on a health and wellness startup.
good m a younger man.
paid hi illion over five years.
the be is career, he ranked second in the NFL in rushing yards.
then t ning back money was drying up.
ague-im alary cap.
tly try figure out which players they can give less money to
re mone e players they think they cannot win without.
ad fall the cannot-win-without list.
ecades, venues have more than doubled to about $20 billion a year.
percen are of revenues, that means the overall player pool has also
ave bar red in that gain.
backs lbacks over the past two decades has risen around 11%.
sive po , salaries have risen at least 90%.
e me, j an agent.
nders a ident at the Sports and Entertainment Group, a full-service
shingto
for 20- ars.
s do yo sent now, your firm?
40 NFL at any given time.
larger es.
me that nt is busy and important when you’re making a deal.
w much ance that deal requires as time goes on.
bout, i ife cycle of an athlete, how involved are you?
very as our clients’ lives on a daily basis.
he leas t of time actually negotiating contracts.
ist, a nship therapist, some type of preacher or pastor when need be.
nselor?
ove doi
I get a rom a player who’s injured.
ith tha
player moving and he needs to be guiding in the right direction.
‘ll cal d ask me what TV they should purchase.
with th ng people involved with them in a very intimate and deep fashion.
epresen layers, what would you say that you’re most known for?
e actua wn as the running back agency.
ore run cks over the last 20 years than any other agency.
Matt F evin Coleman, Jordan Howard, James White, Sweetfeet from New England, Kendall Hunter, Le’Veon Bell, Michael Carter.
er this ho’s now with the Rams.
ent the hare of running backs?
en.
ew year ot into the receiver, cornerback, that kind of market.
the bu of representing running backs, but we did start shaping our roster a little bit.
use you sing the money yourselves.
you’re ing to the market.
this, w u guys were known as a running back agency, and then the market for running backs changes really pretty dramatically.
repres the running backs?
ts who rting out, who don’t have as much luxury to pick their roster the way you guys do?
works?
you sa
uring t few years who just didn’t represent running backs at all.
were r backs in the market looking for representation.
d deman .
ing bac positions.
ere you nd really good players all across the draft and after the draft.
the ru uarterback.
total of yards that a team has.
yardage ing not from the running backs, but it’s coming from the quarterback.
f the l as quarterbacks who can run as well as the running back.
nges th litated an opening up of the passing game?
etimes fully appreciate that the NFL is a huge business.
the hi evel.
e ultim l.
ing to 0 billion industry in the next 10 years.
over th 10 years kind of a cultural shift, not just in the NFL, but across sports.
see the e of the game.
unders at at the end of the day, these are corporations that are going to be responsive to their shareholders and consumers.
ifferen
the bal e air, the acrobatic catches and the leaps.
e long
ssing.
10-7 g defensive battle.
the mid ebacker and the running back.
that.
genera bsolutely boring.
and dem
ning qu ck.
ve some nce in the devaluation for the running back position.
eally d and look at root causes,
poratio actual NFL, responding to their consumer base and what their consumer base wants to see.
he NFL ed to what the market wants, give me some specific examples of how the league has added leverage to make passing more prominent, either passing and or quarterback play more prominent.
f rule , obviously, to make it a higher scoring game with more offense.
een han d.
ce rule
uarterb
re good e safety of the players.
root of ason, it’s to increase the scoring.
that is h passing.
juries ishability generally.
physic shment that comes along with running back position, where it ranks with other offensive players.
ut it.
the mo ent position in the most violent sport on the planet.
etting every play.
they’r ng hit.
g back ’10”, 215 pounds, and he’s blocking a 325-pound defensive lineman.
rs are bigger and faster every year.
r the r back is real.
runnin getting through the season unscathed, no injuries, is slim to none.
ams, be f that, they go with running backs by committee.
king ab e when he says running backs by committee is when teams substitute in multiple players throughout the game or the season to share the workload.
Burke, PN analyst.
of the velopments that’s affected the running back position is that teams have realized that you don’t necessarily need a great running back.
great r game.
eople w otball, they see the quarterback hand the ball to the running back who, when a play succeeds, he gets through the line and then keeps running and gains a bunch of yards and finally gets tackled.
my God, unning back is so talented.
ally ha to make that run a success.
to be r nine blocks that are all essential.
of con e miracles for run play to really work.
hem up looks perfect on the whiteboard.
os of t , so many things have to go right for it to work.
t’s bea
execut se blocks.
ut the ve line.
back w ies the ball, who succeeds.
five or her guys who are probably averaging, what, around 290 pounds on the offensive line?
ore now
really attention to offensive linemen, but really it’s mostly their moms.
of the are necessary for it to work.
ean abo market?
out it line and the blocking and the scheme are responsible for the first three or four yards of a gain on a run play.
on, it elusiveness of the running back.
ld syst e if I have a good enough line to get a running back out to three, four, five yards, now he’s into the secondary and it’s up to him to make defenders miss their tackles.
ese big ive gains.
mprove nning game, you don’t go out and just get a great running back.
ith the ive line, make sure you’re calling good plays, and then the cherry on top might be a star running back.
break, ning backs have any chance of returning to their previous glory?
cal, ri
ell bot ng enough, they’ll come back.
s Radio e will come back right after this.
spond w n something is taken away from us.
to talk loss aversion, the fact that we feel more pain from loss than we feel pleasure from a gain of the same size.
an ath o’s been working hard since age five or six, driven by the very slim hope that you might live out your dream and become an NFL running back,
discov your position has been downgraded.
ck in t can still make millions of dollars, but keep in mind that A, running back careers are short,
teamma l be making more millions than you.
ptions?
oldout.
quon Ba nd Josh Jacobs did in 2023, sitting out training camp after being franchise tagged by their respective teams,
and th egas Raiders.
heir te the end of the season, and both have prospered with their new teams,
gles an s with the Green Bay Packers.
‘t alwa s planned.
Steele ing back Le’Veon Bell, one of the best backs in the league at the time,
tire se ther than play under a franchise tag.
Burke, PN data scientist.
cut his short, maybe not by a full year,
rishabi just age-based, not necessarily wear and tear-based.
ery sli t the next guy up, who costs a fraction of what Le’Veon wants to be paid,
rather illion dollars for 95% of what Le’Veon Bell is
n for 1
contrac the Jets, but then he wasn’t very good there,
kind o
advise hen he was doing really well with the Steelers on his rookie contract?
d him t take what he can get.
of his .
e’s try accomplish, but he’s just up against reality.
the Jet
ish tea f 32 that’s going to overpay you,
one.
e Jets, honest.
for sur
time w rey Whitney, who we heard from earlier.
t want uss the Bell situation.
hat oth ons are available to dissatisfied running backs?
ere was empt at creating a carve-out,
ific la ignation proposed by a group called the International Brotherhood
ning Ba
NLRB, ional Labor Relations Board, for what labor lawyers call a unit clarification.
e uniqu cal demands of the running back position set them apart from other football players
d, ther be allowed to break away from the NFL Players Union and negotiate on their own.
e, but B rejected their request.
h, the Vikings running back, what he thought of this idea.
ave tal ut in countless episodes on Freakonomics,
carefu trying to change one variable in a system without impacting the system
aven’t ated.
market ng to decide where they value players the most
y is go make the most sense for that team.
nd hold ren’t the answer, how about a good old-fashioned running back Zoom call?
ler, no the Washington Commanders, organized a Zoom with other top running backs,
Jacobs, ian McCaffrey, and Nick Chubb, to discuss the state of their position.
really we can do, Chubb said afterward.
uffed w situation.
ition t production hurts us.
and run yards the next year, they’re going to say, you’re probably worn down.
Eagles to the Super Bowl and won the Super Bowl thanks to the huge contributions of running back Saquon Barkley.
the NFL l back in love with the running back?
years, seeing a little bit of resurgence in the running game.
cal, ri
ell bot ng enough, they’ll come back.
sports Jeffrey Whitney.
ack, wh e most important duty that they have?
ill be nning the football.
n and c the ball and running as part of it.
g some unning backs, again, who can do it all, can catch it, can run it, good in pass protection.
a relat a family friend who’s 11, 12 years old, great athlete.
that k hey’re hoping for a long career in the NFL?
heck o he running back position?
me a lo per.
me a sp t, a long snapper or a kicker.
ed.
advise o do.
to be rterback, be the long snapper or be the kicker.
sode ab economics of the long snapper position.
s the M otonous Job in the World Pay $1 Million?
want t n.
s, LaSh oy, the six-time pro bowler, was more optimistic about their future.
lking w and Fryer.
league
oing to e Super Bowl, they want to copycat that.
the be ams, right?
ng back
re they playoff team without Josh Jacobs?
s.
ent on am.
ough, i n Park is not there?
he MVP ar.
k total erent.
ce?
Lamar J throwing the ball better than he’s ever thrown before.
d?
ket has up because these players are earning these things.
at beca thing about owners, they want to make their money and they want to win.
nce to McCoy’s optimism.
e runni has recovered a bit.
of the from scrimmage were run plays.
low.
3.4% ru , and this year was up to 43.7%.
ear wit r Vikings running back Robert Smith, I asked what he thought of the uptick.
o see t kdown.
unning
erbacks an run the football, and they’re extremely difficult to stop.
r Jacks n a Patrick Mahomes, a Josh Allen, you’re going to have some guys that may distort those numbers.
s selec as because the better teams are constructed in a way where they can run the football in the red zone the way they want to.
the lea so they’re going to get more runs that way.
there e somewhat of a return to the retro world of run first?
point it takes on a running play.
ld poin quon Barkley and Derrick Henry, and those guys are outliers.
Barkle ith the Giants last year.
enry di Tennessee last year.
oing wi r new teams this year with Philadelphia and the Ravens.
are ju much better.
the po other way that, yeah, well, of course, you put these guys behind the great offensive lines.
articul set a record for a number of yards before first contact this year.
the pe ce of running backs, there’s no way that it would be significant enough where everybody would say, well, all we got to do is go get a Saquon Barkley.
go get ick Henry.
it did k for those guys behind those other offensive lines.
ng to h spend the money to get the offensive line in place that’s going to allow those guys to have Saquon Barkley-like numbers or Derrick Henry-like numbers.
grees w th that Henry and Barkley are the exceptions that prove the rule.
s diffe nd it goes back to his military training.
ansitiv
one sup actic.
are all g pass blockers and receivers and throwers and everything.
bunch blockers and running backs left on the table.
ies, li going to go grab them, and I’m going to be the best running team they’ve ever seen.
o be un d for us.
be pre ective.
teams away with that.
conomis d and co-host, Roland Fryer, and I asked him, if a young running back came to him for advice, what would he say?
w what t me to say.
changes cularly in something as intricate as the NFL, then certain positions will be more or less valued.
e will that.
uld be when you do get the ball.
your W eet Journal piece goes like this.
likes ults, meaning the results of your analysis, finding that running backs get paid less because they’re less valuable, relatively.
the kid hopes for a running back renaissance.
s cool, and collected, and economist acting as you are right now, saying, come on, the market is the market, there’s part of you emotionally that’s attached to my argument.
ved in e I became an economist.
Juju, t from Daytona, to advise the players.
, again is all being driven by market forces.
eal, bu re not always predictable.
we’ll b ng about in the lead up to next year’s Super Bowl.
yer for ing and collaborating on this episode.
.
ll our
rt Smit rt Turbin, Jeffrey Whitney, and Brian Burke.
d a gre explaining a complicated game that many of us love, but which many others are often baffled by.
ly to y listening.
y soon new episode.
re of y .
eone el .
is prod Stitcher and Renbud Radio.
ire arc Freakonomics Radio on any podcast app.
ad a tr t or the show notes, that’s at Freakonomics.com.
oduced ated by Tao Jacobs.
anor Os
dio net aff also includes Augusta Chapman, Dalvin Abouaji, Ellen Frankman, Elsa Hernandez, Gabriel Roth, Elaria Montenacourt, Jasmine Klinger, Jeremy Johnson, and Zach Lipinski.
r. Fort the Hitchhikers, and our composer is Luis Guerra.
u for l g.
ried?
e who I run faster than backwards, so that’s a no.
f knee s.
o get m
a serie rthdays.
dio net he hidden side of everything.
Hãy tưởng tượng bạn là một trong những hậu vệ xuất sắc nhất NFL, lập kỷ lục cho đội mới, và chứng kiến câu lạc bộ cũ trả cho một tiền vệ đang sa sút gấp mười lần lương của bạn. Đây là thực tế kinh tế khắc nghiệt của những ngôi sao chạy cầu hiện nay – vị trí đã tụt dốc từ một trong những nghề được trả lương cao nhất giải xuống hạng 15, chỉ trên thủ môn ghi điểm. Tập podcast này đi sâu vào cơn bão hoàn hảo của phân tích dữ liệu, thay đổi luật và thỏa ước lao động đã làm giảm giá trị của vai trò từng được tôn vinh, biến những người cầm bóng biểu tượng nhất bóng bầu dục thành những mảnh ghép có thể thay thế trong một giải đấu ưu tiên chuyền bóng.
Sự suy giảm này không phải do thiếu tài năng. Dữ liệu cho thấy thể chất của các hậu vệ chạy cầu gia nhập giải không thay đổi; họ vẫn nhanh và bùng nổ như xưa. Sự dịch chuyển hoàn toàn là vấn đề cầu, được dẫn dắt bởi cuộc cách mạng phân tích đã chứng minh bằng toán học về giá trị vượt trội của một pha chuyền bóng so với pha chạy bóng. Khi cựu phi công Hải quân và nhà khoa học dữ liệu Brian Burke xây dựng mô hình điểm kỳ vọng năm 2008, kết luận không thể tránh khỏi: chuyền bóng hiệu quả hơn nhiều. Nhận thức này từ từ thấm vào giải đấu, trùng hợp với những thay đổi luật NFL được thiết kế có chủ đích để việc chuyền bóng dễ dàng và kịch tính hơn, thúc đẩy môn thể thao này phát triển thành ngành kinh doanh giải trí trị giá 20 tỷ USD.
Cùng với sự dịch chuyển chiến thuật này là một thay đổi quan trọng trong Thỏa ước Lao động Tập thể (CBA) năm 2011. Thang lương cho tân binh và thời gian kiểm soát tiêu chuẩn năm năm của đội có nghĩa là khi một hậu vệ chạy cầu giành được quyền đàm phán hợp đồng lớn thứ hai, anh ta thường đã 27 tuổi – độ tuổi mà các nhà điều hành cho rằng vị trí này đã suy giảm do hao mòn thể chất tích lũy. Hệ thống này bẫy những ngôi sao hàng đầu, buộc họ phải chứng minh giá trị đỉnh cao trên những hợp đồng tân binh bị kiểm soát chi phí, chỉ để bị coi là “mòn” khi đến lúc được trả lương xứng đáng.
Cuộc thảo luận tiết lộ một sự căng thẳng sâu sắc giữa logic kinh tế lạnh lùng và sự gắn bó cảm xúc với lịch sử trò chơi. Trong khi các nhà kinh tế như Roland Fryer thừa nhận thị trường đang phân bổ nguồn lực khỏi vị trí hậu vệ chạy cầu một cách hợp lý, thì người hâm mộ bóng bầu dục trong ông – và trong nhiều thính giả – lại tiếc nuối sự mất đi của một biểu tượng văn hóa. Tập podcast kết thúc với một nốt hy vọng tuần hoàn, chỉ ra thành công gần đây tại Super Bowl được dẫn dắt bởi các ngôi sao chạy cầu, nhưng bài học bao trùm là trong một giải đấu được tối ưu cho chuyền bóng, số phận của hậu vệ chạy cầu cuối cùng gắn với hàng tấn công và hệ thống, không phải ngôi sao cá nhân.
Những Góc Nhìn Bất Ngờ
- Phân tích chứng minh tính ưu việt áp đảo của chuyền bóng so với chạy bóng được tiên phong một phần bởi một cựu phi công F-18 của Hải quân, người đã áp dụng chiến lược quân sự và lý thuyết trò chơi vào bóng bầu dục.
- “Nguồn cung” thể chất của hậu vệ chạy cầu không giảm; dữ liệu kết hợp cho thấy các tân binh vẫn nhanh nhẹn như xưa. Sự mất giá của họ hoàn toàn là kết quả của sự thay đổi nhu cầu chiến thuật.
- Điều khoản kiểm soát năm năm của đội trong CBA 2011 là một thủ phạm chính, thường bị bỏ qua. Nó trì hoãn quyền tự do cho đến khi hầu hết hậu vệ chạy cầu ở độ tuổi mà các đội cho rằng họ đã qua thời đỉnh cao.
- Một màn trình diễn phá kỷ lục của hậu vệ chạy cầu thực ra có thể làm tổn hại giá trị thị trường của anh ta, vì các đội có thể viện dẫn khối lượng công việc nặng nề như bằng chứng cho thấy anh ta đã “mòn”.
- Một số đại lý hiện nay chủ động khuyên các vận động viên trẻ tránh hoàn toàn vị trí hậu vệ chạy cầu, đề nghị họ trở thành thủ môn ghi điểm hoặc chuyền bóng dài để có sự nghiệp dài hơn và an toàn hơn.
Điểm Rút Ra Thực Tiễn
- Cho vận động viên trẻ: Nếu bạn có kỹ năng, hãy cân nhắc tập luyện cho vị trí trong “trò chơi chuyền bóng” như nhận bóng rộng hoặc chặn cánh, hoặc thậm chí tiền vệ – những vị trí được thị trường đánh giá cao hơn. Chuyên gia như thủ môn ghi điểm cũng có sự ổn định công việc đáng kể.
- Cho hậu vệ chạy cầu gia nhập giải: Hiểu rằng năm năm đầu tiên là những năm kiếm tiền chính của bạn. Hãy lên kế hoạch tài chính như thể sự nghiệp của bạn có thể ngắn ngủi, và tối đa hóa giá trị bằng cách trở thành người bắt bóng và chặn bóng thành thạo, không chỉ là người chạy bóng.
- Cho những người xây dựng đội: Đầu tư vào một hàng tấn công mạnh trước khi chi nhiều cho một ngôi sao chạy cầu. Một hàng tấn công xuất sắc khiến bất kỳ hậu vệ chạy cầu có năng lực nào cũng tỏa sáng, trong khi ngay cả hậu vệ giỏi nhất cũng sẽ vật lộn phía sau một hàng yếu.
- Cho người hâm mộ muốn hiểu trò chơi: Hãy nhận ra rằng một pha chạy bóng thành công là một phép màu nhỏ đòi hỏi sự phối hợp hoàn hảo từ 8 hoặc 9 cầu thủ khác. Hậu vệ chạy cầu thường nhận vinh quang, nhưng hệ thống mới tạo ra cơ hội.
- Cho nhà đàm phán và đại lý: Hệ thống hiện tại đang chống lại các hậu vệ chạy cầu. Hành động tập thể hoặc vận động điều chỉnh CBA (như hợp đồng tân binh ngắn hơn cho vị trí này) có thể hiệu quả hơn việc cá nhân từ chối thi đấu.
想像一下，你是NFL頂尖跑衛之一，剛為新球隊創下紀錄，卻看著老東家付給一位表現掙扎的四分衛十倍於你的薪水。這就是當今明星跑衛面對的殘酷經濟現實——這個位置已從聯盟最高薪行列暴跌至第15名，僅高於踢球員。本集節目深入探討數據分析、規則變革與勞資協議如何形成「完美風暴」，讓這個昔日備受尊崇的角色急速貶值，將美式足球最具標誌性的持球者，轉變為傳球優先聯盟中可替換的零件。
這種衰落並非源於人才短缺。數據顯示，進入聯盟的跑衛身體素質並未改變，他們依舊速度驚人、爆發力十足。轉變純屬需求問題，由一場數據分析革命驅動——數學模型證明了傳球進攻遠比跑陣更有價值。當前海軍F-18飛行員兼數據科學家布萊恩·伯克在2008年建立預期得分模型時，結論無可辯駁：傳球效率高出太多。這份洞見逐漸滲透聯盟，恰逢NFL規則修改刻意使傳球更容易、更精彩，以推動這項運動發展為價值200億美元的娛樂產業。
加劇這一戰略轉變的，是2011年《集體談判協議》的一項關鍵條款。新秀薪資結構與標準五年球隊控制期意味著，當跑衛終於獲得談判第二份重大合約的權利時，往往已27歲——管理層普遍認為這個位置因身體損耗而開始衰退。這套制度困住了頂尖跑衛，迫使他們在薪資受控的新秀合約中證明自己的精英價值，卻在該獲得回報時被貼上「耗損殆盡」的標籤。
這場對話揭示了冷酷經濟邏輯與對比賽歷史的情感依戀之間的深刻張力。儘管像羅蘭·弗萊爾這樣的經濟學家承認，市場正在理性地將資源從跑衛位置移開，但他內心（以及許多聽眾心中）的足球迷仍在哀嘆一個文化象徵的消逝。節目結尾帶來一絲循環希望，指出近期由明星跑衛驅動的超級盃勝利案例，但核心啟示是：在這個為傳球優化的聯盟中，跑衛的命運終究繫於進攻鋒線與戰術體系，而非個人星光。
令人意外的洞見
- 證明傳球壓倒性優於跑陣的數據分析，部分由一位前海軍F-18飛行員開創，他將軍事戰略與博弈論應用於足球。
- 跑衛的體能「供給」並未下降：聯合試訓數據顯示新秀運動能力一如既往。他們的貶值純粹源於戰略需求的改變。
- 2011年《集體談判協議》的五年球隊控制條款是常被忽略的關鍵原因。它將自由球員資格推遲至多數跑衛被球隊認定巔峰已過的年齡。
- 跑衛打破紀錄的表現實際上可能損害其市場價值，球隊可將其龐大工作量作為「身體已耗損」的依據。
- 部分經紀人現在積極建議年輕運動員完全避開跑衛位置，轉而擔任踢球員或長開球手以獲得更長久安全的職業生涯。
實用啟示
- 對年輕運動員：若具備相關技能，可考慮訓練成為市場價值更高的「傳球體系」位置（如外接員、緊端員甚至四分衛）。踢球員等專業位置也有顯著的職業保障。
- 對即將進入聯盟的跑衛：明白你的黃金賺錢期是前五年。按職業生涯可能較短來規劃財務，並透過成為優秀接球手與阻擋者（不僅是持球者）來最大化自身價值。
- 對球隊建構者：在重金引進明星跑衛前，先投資強大的進攻鋒線。優秀鋒線能讓任何合格跑衛表現出色，而最頂尖的跑衛在薄弱鋒線後也將舉步維艱。
- 對希望理解比賽的球迷：認識到一次成功的跑陣進攻猶如微小奇蹟，需要其他8至9名球員完美執行。跑衛常收穫榮耀，但機會實由體系創造。
- 對談判者與經紀人：現行制度對跑衛極為不利。集體行動或推動《集體談判協議》修正（如為該位置設定更短的新秀合約期），可能比個人罷訓更有效。
Imagínate ser uno de los mejores corredores de la NFL, establecer un récord con tu nuevo equipo y ver cómo tu antiguo club le paga a un mariscal de campo en apuros diez veces tu salario. Esa es la dura realidad económica de los corredores estrella de hoy, una posición que se ha desplomado de estar entre las mejor pagadas de la liga a ocupar el puesto 15, apenas por encima de los pateadores. El episodio se adentra en la tormenta perfecta de analítica, cambios de reglas y acuerdos laborales que devaluó un rol antes venerado, transformando a los portadores de balón más icónicos del fútbol americano en piezas reemplazables dentro de una liga centrada en el pase.
El declive no se debe a una falta de talento. Los datos muestran que las características físicas de los corredores que ingresan a la liga no han cambiado; son tan rápidos y explosivos como siempre. El cambio es puramente un problema de demanda, impulsado por una revolución analítica que demostró matemáticamente el valor superior de una jugada de pase frente a una de carrera. Cuando el ex piloto naval de la Marina estadounidense y científico de datos Brian Burke construyó su modelo de puntos esperados en 2008, la conclusión fue ineludible: pasar era mucho más eficiente. Esta idea fue permeando poco a poco la liga, coincidiendo con cambios en las reglas de la NFL diseñados deliberadamente para hacer el juego aéreo más fácil y emocionante, con el fin de impulsar el crecimiento del deporte hasta convertirlo en un negocio de entretenimiento de 20 mil millones de dólares.
Agravando este cambio estratégico hubo una modificación crucial en el Convenio Colectivo de Trabajo (CBA) de 2011. La escala salarial para novatos y un periodo estándar de control del equipo de cinco años significaban que, para cuando un corredor ganaba el derecho a negociar un segundo gran contrato, a menudo ya tenía 27 años, una edad en la que los ejecutivos perciben que la posición empieza a declinar debido al desgaste físico acumulado. Este sistema atrapa a los mejores corredores, obligándolos a demostrar su valor élite con contratos de novato de salario controlado, solo para ser considerados “gastados” cuando llega el momento de cobrar.
La conversación revela una tensión profunda entre la fría lógica económica y el apego emocional a la historia del juego. Aunque economistas como Roland Fryer reconocen que el mercado está asignando racionalmente los recursos lejos de los corredores, el aficionado al fútbol americano que hay en él —y en muchos oyentes— lamenta la pérdida de un ícono cultural. El episodio termina con una nota de esperanza cíclica, señalando éxitos recientes en el Super Bowl impulsados por corredores estrella, pero la lección general es que, en una liga optimizada para el pase, el destino del corredor está ligado en última instancia a la línea ofensiva y al sistema, no al estrellato individual.
Ideas sorprendentes
- La analítica que demostró la abrumadora superioridad del pase sobre la carrera fue impulsada en parte por un ex piloto naval de F-18 que aplicó estrategia militar y teoría de juegos al fútbol americano.
- La “oferta” física de corredores no ha disminuido; los datos del combine muestran que los aspirantes son tan atléticos como siempre. Su devaluación es puramente resultado de un cambio en la demanda estratégica.
- La cláusula de control de cinco años del equipo en el CBA de 2011 es un factor clave, a menudo pasado por alto. Retrasa la agencia libre hasta que la mayoría de los corredores alcanza una edad en la que los equipos asumen que ya dejaron atrás su mejor momento.
- Una actuación de un corredor que bate récords puede en realidad perjudicar su valor de mercado, ya que los equipos pueden citar la gran carga de trabajo como prueba de que ahora está “desgastado”.
- Algunos agentes ahora aconsejan activamente a los atletas jóvenes evitar por completo la posición de corredor, sugiriéndoles convertirse en pateadores o long snappers para tener carreras más largas y seguras.
Conclusiones prácticas
- Para los atletas jóvenes: Si tienes las habilidades, considera entrenarte para una posición del “juego de pase” como receptor abierto o ala cerrada, o incluso mariscal de campo, que el mercado valora más. Los especialistas, como los pateadores, también tienen una seguridad laboral notable.
- Para los corredores que entran a la liga: Entiende que tus mejores años de ingresos son los primeros cinco. Planifica tus finanzas como si tu carrera pudiera ser corta y maximiza tu valor convirtiéndote en un receptor de pases y bloqueador competente, no solo en un corredor.
- Para quienes construyen equipos: Invierte en una línea ofensiva sólida antes de derrochar en un corredor estrella. Una gran línea hace que cualquier corredor competente luzca bien, mientras que incluso el mejor corredor tendrá dificultades detrás de una línea débil.
- Para los aficionados que buscan entender el juego: Reconoce que una jugada de carrera exitosa es casi un pequeño milagro que requiere una ejecución perfecta de otros 8 o 9 jugadores. El corredor suele llevarse la gloria, pero es el sistema el que crea la oportunidad.
- Para negociadores y agentes: El sistema actual está en contra de los corredores. La acción colectiva o la presión para lograr ajustes en el CBA (como contratos de novato más cortos para la posición) podría ser más eficaz que las retenciones individuales.
Imagine ser um dos melhores running backs da NFL, bater um recorde pelo seu novo time e ver seu antigo clube pagar a um quarterback em má fase dez vezes o seu salário. Essa é a dura realidade econômica dos running backs de elite de hoje, uma posição que despencou de uma das mais bem pagas da liga para a 15ª colocação, logo acima dos kickers. O episódio explora a tempestade perfeita de análises estatísticas, mudanças nas regras e acordos trabalhistas que desvalorizaram uma função antes reverenciada, transformando os carregadores de bola mais icônicos do futebol americano em peças substituíveis em uma liga focada no passe.
Esse declínio não se deve à falta de talento. Os dados mostram que as características físicas dos running backs que entram na liga não mudaram; eles continuam tão rápidos e explosivos quanto sempre foram. A mudança é puramente um problema de demanda, impulsionado por uma revolução analítica que provou matematicamente o valor superior de uma jogada de passe em comparação com uma jogada de corrida. Quando o ex-piloto da Marinha americana e cientista de dados Brian Burke construiu seu modelo de pontos esperados em 2008, a conclusão era inevitável: passar era muito mais eficiente. Essa percepção foi lentamente se espalhando pela liga, coincidindo com mudanças nas regras da NFL deliberadamente projetadas para tornar o jogo aéreo mais fácil e mais emocionante, alimentando o crescimento do esporte até se tornar um negócio de entretenimento de US$ 20 bilhões.
Agravando essa mudança estratégica, houve uma alteração crucial no Acordo Coletivo de Trabalho (CBA) de 2011. A escala salarial para novatos e um período padrão de cinco anos de controle por parte do time fizeram com que, quando um running back finalmente conquistava o direito de negociar um segundo grande contrato, ele frequentemente já tivesse 27 anos — uma idade na qual os executivos consideram que a posição está em declínio devido ao desgaste físico acumulado. Esse sistema aprisiona os principais running backs, obrigando-os a provar seu valor de elite em contratos de novato com salários controlados, apenas para serem considerados “desgastados” justamente quando chega a hora de receber.
A discussão revela uma tensão profunda entre a lógica econômica fria e o apego emocional à história do jogo. Embora economistas como Roland Fryer reconheçam que o mercado está alocando recursos de forma racional para longe dos running backs, o torcedor de futebol americano dentro dele — e dentro de muitos ouvintes — lamenta a perda de um ícone cultural. O episódio termina com uma nota de esperança cíclica, apontando para sucessos recentes no Super Bowl impulsionados por corredores de destaque, mas a lição principal é que, em uma liga otimizada para o passe, o destino do running back está, no fim das contas, ligado à linha ofensiva e ao sistema, não ao estrelato individual.
Percepções Surpreendentes
- As análises estatísticas que provaram a enorme superioridade do passe sobre a corrida foram em parte pioneiramente desenvolvidas por um ex-piloto de F-18 da Marinha, que aplicou estratégia militar e teoria dos jogos ao futebol americano.
- A “oferta” física de running backs não diminuiu; os dados do combine mostram que os novatos continuam tão atléticos quanto sempre foram. Sua desvalorização é resultado puramente de uma mudança na demanda estratégica.
- A cláusula de cinco anos de controle do time no CBA de 2011 é uma das principais culpadas, embora muitas vezes ignorada. Ela adia a free agency até que a maioria dos running backs esteja em uma idade na qual os times presumem que eles já passaram do auge.
- Uma atuação recordista de um running back pode, na verdade, prejudicar seu valor de mercado, já que os times podem citar a carga excessiva de trabalho como prova de que ele está agora “desgastado”.
- Alguns agentes agora aconselham ativamente jovens atletas a evitar completamente a posição de running back, sugerindo que se tornem kickers ou long snappers para terem carreiras mais longas e seguras.
Conclusões Práticas
- Para jovens atletas: Se você tiver habilidade, considere treinar para uma posição do “jogo aéreo”, como wide receiver ou tight end, ou até mesmo quarterback, que o mercado valoriza mais. Especialistas como kickers também têm uma segurança no emprego notável.
- Para running backs entrando na liga: Entenda que seus melhores anos de ganho são os cinco primeiros. Planeje-se financeiramente como se sua carreira pudesse ser curta e maximize seu valor tornando-se um recebedor de passes e bloqueador eficiente, não apenas um corredor.
- Para montadores de elenco: Invistam em uma linha ofensiva forte antes de gastar muito com um running back estrela. Uma grande linha faz qualquer running back competente parecer bom, enquanto até o melhor corredor terá dificuldades atrás de uma linha fraca.
- Para torcedores que querem entender o jogo: Reconheçam que uma jogada de corrida bem-sucedida é um pequeno milagre que exige execução perfeita de outros 8 ou 9 jogadores. O running back muitas vezes recebe o mérito, mas é o sistema que cria a oportunidade.
- Para negociadores e agentes: O sistema atual está armado contra os running backs. Ação coletiva ou pressão por ajustes no CBA (como contratos de novato mais curtos para a posição) pode ser mais eficaz do que greves ou impasses individuais.
They used to be the N.F.L.’s biggest stars, with paychecks to match. Now their salaries are near the bottom, and their careers are shorter than ever. In this updated episode from 2025, we speak with an analytics guru, an agent, an economist, and some former running backs to understand why.
- SOURCES:
- Brian Burke, sports data scientist at ESPN.
- Roland Fryer, professor of economics at Harvard University.
- LeSean McCoy, former running back in the N.F.L., co-host for Fox’s daily studio show, “The Facility.”
- Robert Smith, former running back for the Minnesota Vikings, N.F.L. analyst.
- Robert Turbin, former running back, N.F.L. analyst for CBS Sports HQ, college football announcer.
- Jeffery Whitney, founder and president at The Sports & Entertainment Group.
- RESOURCES:
- “The Economics of Running Backs,” by Roland Fryer (Wall Street Journal, 2024).
- Confessions of a Hero-Worshiper, by Stephen Dubner (2007).
- The Rest of the Iceberg: An Insider’s View on the World of Sports and Celebrity, by Robert Smith (2004).
- EXTRAS:
- “Roland Fryer Refuses to Lie to Black America,” by Freakonomics Radio (2022).
- “Why Does the Most Monotonous Job in the World Pay $1 Million?” by Freakonomics Radio (2022).
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