Author: Freakonomics Radio

  • 623. Can New York City Win Its War on Rats?

    AI transcript
    0:00:03 (dramatic music)
    0:00:05 – Sometimes we go to war with our neighbors
    0:00:09 and sometimes those neighbors are rats.
    0:00:12 – Okay, so we’re outside in New York City
    0:00:17 looking at what we call active rodent signs or ARS.
    0:00:19 – That is Bobby Corrigan.
    0:00:24 He is an urban rodentologist, a former rodent researcher
    0:00:26 who now works for the city of New York.
    0:00:29 – Everyone thinks there’s a rat world below our feet
    0:00:32 and to some degree that’s true,
    0:00:36 but rats have a very specific subterranean environment
    0:00:37 they need.
    0:00:40 – It is a cold and windy afternoon in Lower Manhattan,
    0:00:41 one of the oldest parts of the city.
    0:00:44 Most of the humans have scurried back
    0:00:46 to their offices from lunch.
    0:00:48 At the intersection of Murray and Church streets,
    0:00:50 Corrigan points to a sidewalk curb
    0:00:53 that has collapsed in on itself.
    0:00:56 – And that’s because the rats nearby
    0:00:59 got below the sidewalk, tunneled into this area,
    0:01:03 dug out the soil so they could have a burrow in this area,
    0:01:04 and now there’s nothing supporting
    0:01:06 these heavy concrete pieces.
    0:01:09 It’s expensive to put in a new curb.
    0:01:11 – And where did these burrowing rats come from?
    0:01:16 – Just five feet away, we have the proverbial catch basin
    0:01:19 that the stormwater drains down
    0:01:23 and sometimes you’ll see rats come right out of these sewers.
    0:01:26 Their home is in the sewer in the middle of the street.
    0:01:28 – So you’ve got rats in the sewers,
    0:01:31 rats burrowing under the sidewalks?
    0:01:32 What else can we see?
    0:01:34 – I want to show you something much more interesting.
    0:01:36 You’ll notice along this building perimeter,
    0:01:40 if you let your eyes just continue along,
    0:01:43 you will see the gray concrete that’s light,
    0:01:44 but next to the building,
    0:01:49 you’ll see this dark charcoal stain that’s linear, right?
    0:01:53 The stain goes around, hugs the building,
    0:01:54 that is from rats.
    0:01:57 And that’s what’s called a sebum stain.
    0:02:01 Rodents like to hug walls so they feel safe and secure.
    0:02:03 So that’s a very clear sign.
    0:02:06 And if you came here between 10 and two tonight,
    0:02:09 chances are good, you might see a rat running along there.
    0:02:11 – Bobby Corrigan, as you can tell,
    0:02:14 is something of an enthusiast when it comes to rats.
    0:02:18 Although his enthusiasm is a strange blend
    0:02:21 of appreciator and exterminator.
    0:02:24 – I want to be humane to this animal ’cause I respect it.
    0:02:27 But if you put a rat on my airplane
    0:02:30 when I’m flying over the seas to Paris,
    0:02:33 I want that rat dead in any way possible.
    0:02:36 – He acknowledges that his work has its disadvantages.
    0:02:38 – My wife, when we go out to eat,
    0:02:40 before we step into a new restaurant,
    0:02:42 she’ll say, “Is it safe?”
    0:02:45 These days, I wish I didn’t know what I know.
    0:02:50 – When you walk around these old city streets with Corrigan,
    0:02:52 it’s easy to feel that it’s a rat’s world
    0:02:54 and we’re just living in it.
    0:02:57 As we learned last week in part one of this series,
    0:03:00 New York and other cities are struggling
    0:03:02 to control their rat populations.
    0:03:04 The problem here got so bad
    0:03:07 that the city declared war on rats.
    0:03:08 Today on Freakin’omics Radio,
    0:03:12 how do you execute such a war?
    0:03:14 This one began with a summit.
    0:03:18 – Wow, you realize we’re gonna get so many people
    0:03:20 showing up to talk about rats.
    0:03:21 (audience laughing)
    0:03:24 – We will hear about some battle tactics.
    0:03:26 An ounce of prevention’s worth a pound of cure.
    0:03:29 – But what if it’s too late for prevention?
    0:03:30 – New York City is not going to be
    0:03:32 the first city to do this.
    0:03:36 In fact, we are definitely going to be one of the last.
    0:03:39 – We’ll hear about rat traps, rat poisons,
    0:03:40 rat birth control.
    0:03:42 – You know, birth control on paper
    0:03:45 sounds pretty darn smart, right?
    0:03:48 – And we will consider some other ideas.
    0:03:50 – If prepared well, sure, I’m open.
    0:03:52 Is someone actually serving Norway rat?
    0:03:54 You want fries with that rat?
    0:03:58 Part two of “Sympathy for the Rat” begins now.
    0:04:01 (upbeat music)
    0:04:12 – This is Freakin’omics Radio,
    0:04:15 the podcast that explores the hidden side of everything
    0:04:18 with your host, Stephen Dubner.
    0:04:20 (upbeat music)
    0:04:24 (audience cheering)
    0:04:28 – Bobby Corrigan was born in Brooklyn,
    0:04:31 but his family moved out to the suburbs of Long Island
    0:04:32 when he was a kid.
    0:04:34 This suited Bobby well.
    0:04:36 – I guess I’ve always been a nature nerd.
    0:04:38 I was the kid that was in the backyard
    0:04:40 frying the ants with the magnifying glass.
    0:04:42 Well, my brother played football.
    0:04:46 And so I’ve always followed that path of creepy crawlers
    0:04:49 and animals that were mysterious, but cool,
    0:04:52 and things we didn’t know much about.
    0:04:56 – Still, he didn’t plan on a life devoted to extermination.
    0:04:58 – You know, it’s kind of crazy.
    0:05:00 I came from a poor family.
    0:05:01 I had no money to go to college,
    0:05:04 so I answered an ad in the newspaper
    0:05:06 for an exterminator in New York City.
    0:05:08 And the new guy gets the good job, right?
    0:05:12 So they put me in the sewers to hang rat poison.
    0:05:15 I was frightened to death, to be honest with you.
    0:05:17 – But that fear only boosted his interest
    0:05:20 after working as an exterminator for a few years.
    0:05:21 Corrigan did go to college
    0:05:24 and he studied under a prominent entomologist
    0:05:25 named Austin Fishman,
    0:05:28 a pest control pioneer Corrigan calls him.
    0:05:31 After that, Corrigan joined a graduate program
    0:05:34 at Purdue University in their School of Agriculture.
    0:05:36 – So when I got into grad school
    0:05:40 and I signed on to studying rats as my species,
    0:05:44 I moved into barns that were full of rats.
    0:05:45 This was in Indiana.
    0:05:47 And farmers would tell me, you know,
    0:05:49 we’re always fighting rats.
    0:05:51 So I asked if I could just move into their barn.
    0:05:53 I would camp literally on the floor
    0:05:55 inside these rat infested barns.
    0:06:00 And over time, it’s a whole crazy experience
    0:06:04 that you get to realize just how amazing these mammals are.
    0:06:05 I have to say, looking back,
    0:06:07 it was some of the most exciting years of my life.
    0:06:09 I say that with all seriousness.
    0:06:12 – Corrigan wound up getting a PhD from Purdue
    0:06:14 in rodent pest management.
    0:06:17 And he stayed out there for a while as a professor.
    0:06:21 But eventually he felt the siren call of his hometown.
    0:06:23 And he took a job with the New York City Department
    0:06:25 of Health and Mental Hygiene.
    0:06:28 In a way, this was a very rat-like behavior
    0:06:32 as rats experience that same pull toward home.
    0:06:34 – I use the term long rodent.
    0:06:36 We all know what long COVID means.
    0:06:37 Well, long rodent is, you know,
    0:06:40 once the colonies have become comfortable
    0:06:41 and had many, many families,
    0:06:43 they’re laying down all kinds of pheromones
    0:06:47 with their bodies, they’ll call any new rats into that area.
    0:06:49 They also have memories of their own neighborhoods,
    0:06:51 just like we do.
    0:06:54 So those neighborhoods, once they become really infested,
    0:06:55 there’s a reason for that.
    0:06:58 The rats have found this works for us.
    0:07:00 And that’s gonna continue and be passed on
    0:07:02 to generation after generation.
    0:07:05 – From the rat perspective, that sounds lovely.
    0:07:07 From generation to generation,
    0:07:09 the kind of thing that humans cherish.
    0:07:11 But from the human perspective,
    0:07:14 rats are rarely a thing to cherish.
    0:07:19 Most people see them as disgusting pests at the very least.
    0:07:21 Some people think of them as mass murderers,
    0:07:24 although as we heard in part one of this series,
    0:07:27 some scientists have recently exonerated rats
    0:07:30 on the charge of having spread the black death in Europe.
    0:07:34 Still, the rats’ reputation is terrible.
    0:07:38 So if you are facing the kind of multi-generational infestation
    0:07:41 that Bobby Corrigan was just talking about,
    0:07:42 what do you do?
    0:07:46 The most obvious tool, in many cases, is poison.
    0:07:49 – Poisons, they’re called redenticides,
    0:07:52 meaning to kill rodents, are a primary tool
    0:07:55 that everybody uses to try to kill any rats
    0:07:57 that they see around their property.
    0:07:59 – But Corrigan says this obvious choice
    0:08:01 is often the wrong choice.
    0:08:04 – You would want to start first with not attracting the rats
    0:08:08 with food or clutter in the first place.
    0:08:10 Poisons are probably the last resort
    0:08:14 that should be approached when it comes to rat control.
    0:08:16 It’s an environmental thing.
    0:08:20 – A good example of the environmental threat of rat poison
    0:08:22 is the story of Flocko the Owl,
    0:08:24 a beautiful Eurasian eagle owl
    0:08:27 who lived in Central Park Zoo in New York City.
    0:08:30 Flocko became a celebrity when in 2023,
    0:08:32 he escaped from the zoo
    0:08:35 thanks to a vandal cutting a hole in the cage,
    0:08:38 and he took up residence in Manhattan.
    0:08:39 There were concerns at first
    0:08:43 that he wouldn’t be able to survive outside of captivity,
    0:08:45 but he seemed to be thriving.
    0:08:46 – When I read that, I said,
    0:08:49 well, I am worried about this owl
    0:08:51 because I know the owls of the parks,
    0:08:54 they are preying upon rats and mice out in the parks
    0:08:56 and may be feeding on these poisons.
    0:08:58 – After nine months on the outside,
    0:09:01 Flocko was killed when he flew into a building
    0:09:03 on the Upper West Side.
    0:09:05 A postmortem showed that he had debilitating levels
    0:09:08 of rat poison in his system.
    0:09:11 But it’s not just escaped zoo animals
    0:09:13 who are endangered by rat poison.
    0:09:16 Dogs are, children are.
    0:09:17 Like Bobby Corrigan said,
    0:09:21 poison should probably be a last resort, not a first.
    0:09:24 And how does Corrigan feel about rat traps?
    0:09:29 – Traps, if they’re applied by someone who’s experienced
    0:09:31 and it really does take experience,
    0:09:34 the rat’s a very wily mammal and it’s very smart.
    0:09:37 It’s not as simple as going to the hardware store,
    0:09:37 buying a rat trap,
    0:09:39 putting it out with a glob of peanut butter
    0:09:41 and saying, that’s it.
    0:09:45 So traps can be useful when done by experienced people,
    0:09:47 but we have to acknowledge
    0:09:50 that many of them are simply inhumane,
    0:09:52 especially glue traps.
    0:09:55 If you ever sit and watch a rat or a mouse
    0:09:59 struggling on glue, it’s not a pretty sight whatsoever.
    0:10:01 – We talked in part one of this series
    0:10:04 about the thin line between animals we love
    0:10:05 and treat kindly
    0:10:09 and the animals we consider pests and treat violently.
    0:10:13 It is true that some people do keep rats as pets.
    0:10:14 And of course we’ve used them for years
    0:10:17 as research subjects in medicine, psychology,
    0:10:18 even space travel.
    0:10:23 But we mostly think of them as a thing to be eliminated.
    0:10:26 Even though they are like us mammals
    0:10:30 and not so different from the mammals we celebrate and love,
    0:10:33 so does it make sense to torture a rat
    0:10:35 when you wouldn’t torture a cat or a dog?
    0:10:38 Another rat mitigation solution
    0:10:41 that’s been gaining traction is birth control.
    0:10:43 – So it has great optics.
    0:10:45 We don’t have to use those bad poisons
    0:10:47 and the traps that are inhumane.
    0:10:50 So why not just quote, give them the pill?
    0:10:53 But you have to get the birth control materials
    0:10:57 to large groups of mammals and in cities,
    0:10:59 we have what’s called open populations of rats.
    0:11:02 That means you can have colonies living in sewers,
    0:11:04 rats living in parks, rats living in basements,
    0:11:07 rats living in subways.
    0:11:11 How do you get the birth control to all these colonies?
    0:11:13 Are you bailing out the ocean with a teaspoon,
    0:11:15 I guess is the best way to put it.
    0:11:17 – So how do you keep down the rat population
    0:11:20 in a place like New York?
    0:11:21 The unfortunate answer seems to be
    0:11:24 that there is no one clear solution.
    0:11:28 Part of the problem is that rat data is usually unreliable.
    0:11:31 This is frustrating for someone like Bobby Corrigan.
    0:11:36 We haven’t addressed this issue in 300 years.
    0:11:40 We’ve looked at these rats as just kill them,
    0:11:42 just put out poison, just trap them.
    0:11:45 No science has gone into this,
    0:11:49 but the compass is finally pointing in the right direction.
    0:11:50 – And what makes Corrigan say this
    0:11:53 that the compass is pointing in the right direction?
    0:11:56 Well, last fall, New York City hosted
    0:11:59 the first ever National Urban Rat Summit.
    0:12:03 You know, the credit here goes to Cathy Karatee.
    0:12:06 – Karatee is the new city-wide director of rodent mitigation,
    0:12:08 also known as the rat czar.
    0:12:10 – Within our first couple of weeks of being
    0:12:14 in the position of rat czar, we met for coffee.
    0:12:17 And Cathy said, what if we bring in old scientists
    0:12:20 from around the US and even maybe around the world
    0:12:22 to talk about this issue?
    0:12:25 And from there, it took off.
    0:12:28 (gentle music)
    0:12:32 – Lake Bobby Corrigan, Cathy Karatee,
    0:12:35 is both exterminator and appreciator.
    0:12:36 She knows the animal well.
    0:12:38 I asked her if she could explain
    0:12:41 the secret of the rat’s success in New York.
    0:12:44 – Yes, their fecundity is their superpower.
    0:12:47 Rat’s gestation period is about 21 days.
    0:12:50 You know, three weeks to a litter,
    0:12:52 you can have eight to 12 pups in that litter,
    0:12:54 and then the females in that litter
    0:12:57 are ready to breed at about three months of age again.
    0:13:01 So we just are talking exponential growth,
    0:13:03 and that’s by design, evolutionary.
    0:13:05 They want to produce as much young as possible
    0:13:07 because they’re a prey species.
    0:13:11 The average life expectancy of a New York City rat,
    0:13:14 a wild rat, as we’d call it, is eight to 12 months.
    0:13:17 If you take that same species in the laboratory setting,
    0:13:18 it’s about three years.
    0:13:21 It’s a tough life out there in the wild,
    0:13:22 so the more offspring you produce,
    0:13:25 the better change you have of passing those genes on.
    0:13:27 – I spoke with Karate shortly before
    0:13:29 the inaugural rat summit last fall.
    0:13:31 I asked her for a preview.
    0:13:33 – We’ve put together this summit
    0:13:37 to bring together the leading academic minds in this space,
    0:13:40 the researchers studying urban rats,
    0:13:42 and then different municipal leaders.
    0:13:46 So we have folks joining us from Boston, DC, Seattle.
    0:13:48 Everyone’s grappling with this?
    0:13:50 No city is like, you know what?
    0:13:52 We’re okay with what’s going on.
    0:13:54 – The day of the rat summit arrived,
    0:13:57 Mayor Eric Adams helped set the stage.
    0:14:00 He began by praising Kathy Karate.
    0:14:01 – I am so happy.
    0:14:06 I have a four-star general who is working on
    0:14:07 finally winning the war on rats.
    0:14:10 We will make an impact.
    0:14:13 And if we do so, we’re going to improve the health
    0:14:18 and the mental stability of everyday people in this city.
    0:14:19 So thank you for being here.
    0:14:22 Let’s be energetic, let’s share our ideas.
    0:14:25 Let’s figure out how we unified against
    0:14:28 what I consider to be public enemy number one,
    0:14:29 Mickey and his crew.
    0:14:31 (audience applauding)
    0:14:33 – And then the presentations got underway.
    0:14:35 Our friend Bobby Corrigan gave a talk
    0:14:38 called Remote Rat Sensor Technology,
    0:14:41 Public Health Canaries in the coal mine.
    0:14:43 – We can leave these sensors in place.
    0:14:47 They’re going to work 24/7, 365, no benefits are needed,
    0:14:48 you know, we’re not going to pay them over time.
    0:14:51 None of that, but they’re giving us data.
    0:14:53 – A rat researcher named Kaylee Byers
    0:14:56 gave a talk called More Than Pests,
    0:14:59 Rats as a Public and Mental Health Issue.
    0:15:01 Byers teaches at Simon Fraser University
    0:15:02 in British Columbia, Canada.
    0:15:05 She opened her talk by showing a global map
    0:15:07 of the rat’s reach.
    0:15:09 Only a very few places are spared,
    0:15:11 Antarctica, for instance,
    0:15:15 and a big rectangle in the middle of Canada.
    0:15:17 – You might be looking at this rat map and saying,
    0:15:21 oh, what’s going on over here, this little blank space?
    0:15:24 That’s Alberta, the rat-free province of Canada.
    0:15:28 We do actually have rats, there’s many fewer of them,
    0:15:32 but Alberta has marketed itself as the rat-free province.
    0:15:33 – And here’s a person responsible
    0:15:35 for keeping Alberta rat-free.
    0:15:39 – Karen Wickerson, I’m the rat and pest specialist
    0:15:41 for the province of Alberta.
    0:15:43 – Wickerson was not able to make the rat summit,
    0:15:46 although she did visit New York not long after.
    0:15:48 We spoke with her in a studio.
    0:15:50 – So I’m in charge of overseeing the program,
    0:15:53 which is Provincial Lied.
    0:15:58 I coordinate response to rat reports, rat infestations,
    0:16:01 if we have them.
    0:16:05 I work with people who are part of the rat patrol
    0:16:07 at the Alberta Saskatchewan border.
    0:16:10 They check along the border twice a year,
    0:16:13 and they report back to me if they do find rats at all.
    0:16:17 Alberta is just over 250,000 square miles.
    0:16:19 That’s roughly the same size as Texas,
    0:16:22 where there are many rats.
    0:16:24 But Alberta says it does not have
    0:16:28 a single breeding population of rats.
    0:16:31 Karen Wickerson gives some credit to the public.
    0:16:33 – Albertans are very proud.
    0:16:35 I’ve had people go to great lengths
    0:16:37 to figure out how to report a rat sighting,
    0:16:39 and they get ahold of me and they say,
    0:16:42 “Oh, I know, I’m supposed to report this.
    0:16:44 I want you to know.
    0:16:46 I saw a rat at this location.”
    0:16:49 – Wickerson told us that she gets about 500 reports
    0:16:51 of rat sightings a year,
    0:16:55 but that only around 30 of them are legitimate.
    0:16:57 How can this be?
    0:17:00 Apparently when rats are rare,
    0:17:02 a lot of people don’t even know what a rat looks like.
    0:17:05 – If you’ve lived in Alberta your whole life,
    0:17:08 you probably can’t identify one when you see it.
    0:17:10 I can talk about the reports we receive
    0:17:14 of people misidentifying them as musk rats.
    0:17:17 They’re a larger rodent, have a waddle, long tail.
    0:17:19 We receive a lot of reports of them
    0:17:21 where people think they are rats.
    0:17:25 – So what does it take to be essentially rat-free?
    0:17:29 Alberta has run a strict anti-rat program since the 1950s.
    0:17:31 The Norway rat was migrating then
    0:17:34 in great numbers from the eastern part of Canada,
    0:17:38 and farmers out west saw the potential for crop damage.
    0:17:40 – Because of the damage they could cause,
    0:17:42 they declared them a pest.
    0:17:45 Being a pest, an agricultural pest in Alberta,
    0:17:48 means that every Albertan is required to control them.
    0:17:52 – Among rat people, Alberta is famous.
    0:17:55 The way Pine Valley is famous among golf people
    0:17:58 as a remote and sanctified place,
    0:18:00 almost too good for this world.
    0:18:02 – People are desperate and they want to know
    0:18:04 what our secret is.
    0:18:06 I always say like, we’re at such an advantage
    0:18:09 because the program started right when
    0:18:11 rats arrived to our boundary.
    0:18:14 We prevented them from spreading into the province
    0:18:15 and establishing.
    0:18:19 So for me to comment on populations now that do exist,
    0:18:23 you know, it’s hard for me to really give advice.
    0:18:27 I would say that public education is always critical.
    0:18:28 It’s challenging.
    0:18:31 I do really feel for people in other jurisdictions.
    0:18:34 – So how did Karen Wickerson enjoy her visit
    0:18:38 to the super ratty jurisdiction of New York?
    0:18:41 – I found it fascinating because I don’t see rats
    0:18:43 on the street in Alberta.
    0:18:47 So my first night I was walking out for dinner
    0:18:50 and I have to say I was delighted when I saw a rat
    0:18:53 munching on a bag of garbage.
    0:18:58 – As a New Yorker, I am of course proud
    0:19:02 that we keep coming up with new ways to entertain visitors,
    0:19:04 but we should talk about the garbage.
    0:19:06 – We dump all this trash in our curbs
    0:19:10 and we sit around and we wonder why we have a rat problem.
    0:19:11 – That’s coming up after the break.
    0:19:14 I’m Stephen Dubner and this is Freakin’omics Radio.
    0:19:20 (dramatic music)
    0:19:26 When we first set out to make this series on rats,
    0:19:29 we were inspired by what you might call
    0:19:32 a foundational text, a book called Rats,
    0:19:35 Observations on the History and Habitat
    0:19:40 of the City’s Most Unwanted Inhabitants by Robert Sullivan.
    0:19:42 I remembered reading an excerpt of the book
    0:19:43 in the New York Times magazine
    0:19:46 when it was published in 2004.
    0:19:49 And then recently, a dear old friend of mine died
    0:19:51 and I inherited some of his books.
    0:19:53 Rats was one of them.
    0:19:55 My friend, Ivan, was the kind of reader
    0:19:57 who likes to underline interesting passages
    0:19:59 of a book as he goes.
    0:20:01 When I sat down to read his copy of Rats,
    0:20:05 I found that roughly half of it was underlined.
    0:20:08 And that’s what I told Robert Sullivan when I called him up.
    0:20:10 – What a lovely thing to hear.
    0:20:14 So yeah, it’s tough to be known as a rat guy,
    0:20:16 but then right after that,
    0:20:18 it’s good to be known as a rat guy.
    0:20:22 – I asked Sullivan to introduce himself for the recording.
    0:20:25 – My name’s Robert Sullivan and I write things.
    0:20:27 – And I asked for a bit more detail.
    0:20:28 – My name is Robert Sullivan
    0:20:31 and I write books and magazine articles
    0:20:33 and I write about places
    0:20:36 that maybe people haven’t looked at
    0:20:38 or I try to look at places differently
    0:20:41 from maybe how they’ve been looked at.
    0:20:45 – So you have written a lot of articles, several books.
    0:20:48 Are you still best known for Rats, do you think?
    0:20:50 – The idea that I’m best known for anything
    0:20:52 is an idea I struggle with.
    0:20:54 – Hey, you won a Guggenheim.
    0:20:55 – I did, it’s not clear.
    0:20:58 They could have been thinking of another Robert Sullivan.
    0:21:04 I asked Sullivan to explain how he had come to write about rats.
    0:21:07 – The concrete reason was I was on a reporting job.
    0:21:11 I was covering a whale hunt for the New York Times magazine.
    0:21:16 I was out on a reservation, the McCall Nations Reservation,
    0:21:19 out at the very tip of the United States of America,
    0:21:22 the continental United States, the Pacific Northwest,
    0:21:25 and people were there to protest with the hunting of whales.
    0:21:26 – And this was a Native American tribe
    0:21:29 that had kind of a grandfathered in license to hunt them?
    0:21:32 – They had it in their treaty rights.
    0:21:35 There were people on the reservation who believed
    0:21:38 that maybe we shouldn’t hunt whales right now.
    0:21:40 There are also people who thought they should.
    0:21:42 There were also people who thought
    0:21:44 that whether they should or they shouldn’t was a moot point
    0:21:47 because it’s a matter of tribal sovereignty.
    0:21:50 And this was an incredible thing to be witness
    0:21:53 of this debate and this action.
    0:21:55 While I was there, I met a bunch of people
    0:21:58 who were working for animal rights groups.
    0:22:00 And one of them said,
    0:22:02 “I’m not gonna be here tomorrow for the protest.
    0:22:04 I’ve got to go back to Seattle.
    0:22:06 Got to go back to our offices.”
    0:22:07 I asked, “Why?”
    0:22:09 And they said, “Because we have pest control people coming.”
    0:22:12 And I said, “Well, what are you doing?”
    0:22:14 And they said, “We have rats.”
    0:22:17 I said, “Are you gonna trap and release them or what?”
    0:22:20 ‘Cause I just figured, and they said, “No, they’re rats.
    0:22:23 We’re going to have the exterminator take care of them.”
    0:22:28 It just suddenly dawned on me in my abstract pursuit
    0:22:31 of where is the division between what we think of
    0:22:34 as natural and not natural,
    0:22:37 that this was a line in the philosophical sand.
    0:22:44 – So that’s what led Robert Sullivan to write about rats,
    0:22:47 but it is the depth of the reporting
    0:22:50 and the thinking and writing that makes his book spectacular.
    0:22:54 It is brash and clever and interesting on every page.
    0:22:57 I can see why Ivan couldn’t stop underlining.
    0:22:58 The book feels like a cross
    0:23:02 between punk anthropology or rodentology, I guess,
    0:23:04 but there is a lot of anthro in there,
    0:23:07 and cheeky encyclopedia.
    0:23:10 Rat control programs, Sullivan writes,
    0:23:14 are like diets in that cities are always trying a new one.
    0:23:18 In the city, rats and men live in conflict,
    0:23:20 one side scurrying from the other
    0:23:23 or destroying the other’s habitat,
    0:23:25 an unending and brutish war.
    0:23:28 Rat stories are war stories,
    0:23:31 and they are told in conversation and on the news
    0:23:35 in dispatches from the front that is all around us.
    0:23:38 I asked Sullivan what he thought of New York mayor,
    0:23:42 Eric Adams’ war on rats and the recent rat summit.
    0:23:46 – Typically, I try to ignore what mayors say about rats.
    0:23:48 – He was indicted not long after.
    0:23:50 Do you think that was a coincidence or no?
    0:23:53 Do you think the rats have the pull to make that happen?
    0:23:56 I think that the history of rat control
    0:23:59 in New York City and many cities is aligned
    0:24:01 with the history of mayors wanting to get attention
    0:24:04 for being great and taking care of things.
    0:24:06 Just starting way back,
    0:24:09 Mayor Lindsey gave out metal garbage cans.
    0:24:12 Mayor Dinkins built housing,
    0:24:17 very effective way to help with rat problems.
    0:24:21 Mayor Giuliani took trash cans off the streets in Harlem.
    0:24:23 It’s a kind of tributary, I guess,
    0:24:25 of the broken windows theory that says that
    0:24:28 if you take the trash cans off the street,
    0:24:30 people won’t throw trash on the streets.
    0:24:34 Mayor Bloomberg is the rat data guy.
    0:24:37 He was all about where the data is for rats,
    0:24:40 like where rat bite reports are,
    0:24:42 which is a complicated statistic.
    0:24:43 – Why?
    0:24:46 – Because people who are getting bitten by rats
    0:24:48 might not report them,
    0:24:52 might not have the wherewithal or the, frankly, resources
    0:24:54 to go about doing that.
    0:24:57 And so Adams is gonna kill them
    0:24:59 by drowning them in beer or whatever he does.
    0:25:02 Like, it’s just brutal war on rats
    0:25:04 and take no prisoner style.
    0:25:09 – When Sullivan talks about Eric Adams
    0:25:11 drowning rats in beer,
    0:25:14 he is referring to an idea that Adams promoted in 2019
    0:25:17 when he was borough president of Brooklyn.
    0:25:21 This involved an Italian rat trap called an echo meal.
    0:25:23 It is baited with nuts or seeds.
    0:25:27 A rat upon entering drops through a trap door
    0:25:31 into a vat filled with a green alcohol-based solution.
    0:25:34 Say what you will about Eric Adams as an elected official.
    0:25:36 He’s got a lot of problems at the moment,
    0:25:37 and by the time you hear this,
    0:25:39 he may have been shoved out of office,
    0:25:43 but he could never be accused of flip-flopping on rats.
    0:25:46 Shortly after he was elected mayor in 2022,
    0:25:49 he signed into law a rat action plan.
    0:25:51 It included four key components.
    0:25:54 Rat-resistant trash containers,
    0:25:56 more timely trash pickups,
    0:25:58 the creation of rat mitigation zones,
    0:26:02 and a crackdown on rats around construction sites.
    0:26:05 Here’s what one city council member said at the time.
    0:26:08 Today, we declare that rats will no longer be
    0:26:12 the unofficial mascot of New York City.
    0:26:13 This rat action plan, of course,
    0:26:17 required a rat czar in the person of Kathy Karate,
    0:26:19 and she explained that a major focus of the plan
    0:26:22 is to cut down the rats’ food supply.
    0:26:24 – What we’re effectively doing
    0:26:26 is making their lives more stressful
    0:26:29 and cutting off their superpower to breed.
    0:26:32 There’s a whole 99-page report
    0:26:34 about how we’re going to do that,
    0:26:35 ’cause again, simple things are complex
    0:26:38 when we talk about the density of New York
    0:26:40 for a long time, New York City.
    0:26:42 Before we were known for our black bags on the curb,
    0:26:44 we were known for our steel trash cans on the curb,
    0:26:47 as made famous by Oscar the Grouch.
    0:26:50 ♪ Oh, I love trash ♪
    0:26:51 ♪ Anything ♪
    0:26:54 – So the can he sits in was ubiquitous to New York
    0:26:55 before the plastic bag.
    0:26:57 – If you have never visited New York City,
    0:26:59 it may surprise you to learn that most trash
    0:27:02 is simply left out for pickup on the sidewalk
    0:27:04 in big plastic bags.
    0:27:06 As Karate says, trash used to be put
    0:27:08 in metal cans with lids.
    0:27:11 During a sanitation strike in 1968,
    0:27:15 those cans overflowed with tons of loose trash
    0:27:20 and newly invented plastic bags came to the rescue.
    0:27:23 Plastic was also quieter and much lighter,
    0:27:26 which made the returning sanitation workers happy.
    0:27:27 There was just one problem.
    0:27:31 Rats had an easy time chewing through the plastic.
    0:27:34 So what’s the new plan?
    0:27:36 – We’re moving towards containers,
    0:27:39 which means basically a garbage can with a secure lid.
    0:27:41 – These new containers are also made of plastic,
    0:27:44 but a much thicker grade than the flimsy bags.
    0:27:48 – And as of November this year, 2024,
    0:27:50 there’ll be different administrative code
    0:27:54 and legislation in place that 70% of New York City waste
    0:27:56 will be back in containers.
    0:27:59 – And here’s the person who can tell us more about that.
    0:28:01 – My name is Jessica Tish.
    0:28:03 I am the New York City Sanitation Commissioner.
    0:28:06 – That’s what Tish was when we spoke a few months ago.
    0:28:09 She has since become Commissioner
    0:28:11 of the New York City Police Department.
    0:28:12 The previous one resigned
    0:28:15 in the midst of a federal investigation.
    0:28:17 The one before that resigned
    0:28:19 after clashing with the mayor.
    0:28:23 Like I said, the Adams administration has been a mess.
    0:28:27 In any case, when Jessica Tish was running sanitation,
    0:28:30 she understood just how important that job is.
    0:28:34 – Sanitation is the essential service in any city,
    0:28:37 but particularly in New York City.
    0:28:41 Every day, we leave 44 million pounds of trash
    0:28:43 out on our curbs.
    0:28:47 And from my perspective as a lifelong New Yorker,
    0:28:48 New York City hasn’t really changed
    0:28:52 the way we manage that trash in decades.
    0:28:55 For the past 50 years,
    0:28:58 we have been leaving our trash out on our curbs
    0:29:00 in black trash bags.
    0:29:02 It looks gross.
    0:29:05 In the summer, it smells gross.
    0:29:09 One third of the material in those black bags is human food.
    0:29:13 And unfortunately, human food is also rat food.
    0:29:15 So we dump all this trash in our curbs
    0:29:18 and we sit around and we wonder why we have a rat problem.
    0:29:21 The single biggest swing that you can take
    0:29:24 at the rat problem in New York City
    0:29:27 is getting the trash bags off of the streets.
    0:29:31 And that is what we have set out to do.
    0:29:32 We don’t want the bags on the streets.
    0:29:36 Instead, we want our trash in containers.
    0:29:39 Most cities around the world
    0:29:43 have been containerizing their trash for decades.
    0:29:47 New York City is not going to be the first city to do this.
    0:29:51 In fact, we are definitely going to be one of the last.
    0:29:55 This is long overdue and it works everywhere else.
    0:29:58 – Okay, so let’s get into the details.
    0:30:00 Smaller buildings and single family homes
    0:30:02 will have their own bins.
    0:30:05 – We have developed, I would say, a gorgeous new,
    0:30:09 standardized New York City official wheelie bin.
    0:30:11 A lot of people laugh at us
    0:30:13 because they think we sound like
    0:30:16 we have discovered the wheelie bin.
    0:30:18 We acknowledge that we have not.
    0:30:21 Nonetheless, we have a standardized wheelie bin now
    0:30:24 in New York City that all one to nine unit residential buildings
    0:30:26 will be required to use.
    0:30:28 – And how about bigger buildings?
    0:30:29 – You would need in those buildings
    0:30:31 too many of those wheelie bins.
    0:30:33 It would become unwieldy.
    0:30:36 So instead, for those large buildings,
    0:30:41 we are going to put large fixed on-street containers.
    0:30:45 These containers are about four cubic yards.
    0:30:47 The bins do take up parking spaces,
    0:30:50 but because they are being used
    0:30:54 just for the large buildings of 30 units or more,
    0:30:58 it’s not as big a hit to parking citywide.
    0:31:01 As you may otherwise expect,
    0:31:04 we estimate that it’s about 3% citywide.
    0:31:07 – These new large on-street containers
    0:31:10 will also require new garbage trucks.
    0:31:12 – Sanitation workers cannot lift
    0:31:14 these four cubic yard containers.
    0:31:16 In the United States,
    0:31:20 we didn’t have a large automated side loading truck
    0:31:22 that worked in cities.
    0:31:26 And so we developed that truck
    0:31:29 with some vendors who do work in Europe.
    0:31:32 And we rolled out the first
    0:31:35 of these automated side loading trucks
    0:31:39 that are gonna hoist these four cubic yard containers.
    0:31:42 – If you’ve ever seen garbage trucks in Germany
    0:31:46 or Singapore or, well, a lot of places,
    0:31:48 the site of a New York City garbage truck
    0:31:52 extending its claws to lift and dump a big trash can
    0:31:55 may not impress you, but here it’s a big deal.
    0:31:57 The program is currently being piloted
    0:32:00 in a few uptown neighborhoods, including Harlem.
    0:32:03 When someone posted a video of the truck in action
    0:32:06 on social media, the sanitation department
    0:32:08 retweeted the video with a message.
    0:32:10 This was our moon landing.
    0:32:14 Now, before we go making fun of New York City
    0:32:17 for what some people might consider an overstatement,
    0:32:19 let’s consider this.
    0:32:22 Trash tech is one thing to get right.
    0:32:24 Trash behavior is another.
    0:32:27 Jessica Tisch realizes this.
    0:32:28 – Change is hard.
    0:32:30 I think generally having worked my whole career
    0:32:33 in city government, I see that.
    0:32:38 It’s a change that affects all 3.5 million residences
    0:32:42 in New York City, all 8.3 million New Yorkers,
    0:32:44 and all 200,000 businesses.
    0:32:47 Taking out your trash is something you do every day.
    0:32:49 So now, by containerizing it,
    0:32:51 we’re asking everyone in the city
    0:32:53 to change the way they do something.
    0:32:58 – And that’s not the only behavior change to worry about.
    0:33:00 Back on the street with Bobby Corrigan,
    0:33:03 we still haven’t seen a rat, but on a nearby park bench,
    0:33:07 we do come across signs of recent human activity,
    0:33:09 a discarded wrapper from a raisin cake.
    0:33:13 – This is classic right here.
    0:33:14 Someone just came recently.
    0:33:17 They sat down to have their little snack.
    0:33:20 Human beings, I don’t know that what I’ve read
    0:33:23 is 20 to 25% of us as a species,
    0:33:24 we do that behavior.
    0:33:28 That 20 to 25% is all the rats need.
    0:33:30 Probably it’s triple what they need.
    0:33:33 The rats that live here will come out and say,
    0:33:35 “Well, how much was left in that wrapper?”
    0:33:38 And the answer is enough for them tonight.
    0:33:41 We can’t have this behavior, but we can’t get away from it.
    0:33:45 No matter what postage you put up, please don’t litter.
    0:33:46 Please do your trash right.
    0:33:50 Human beings, some don’t care, leave me alone.
    0:33:51 – Further down the street,
    0:33:54 we come across a bank of the new trash containers
    0:33:55 for big buildings.
    0:33:57 Corrigan is impressed.
    0:34:00 – So this is a very smart thing for a city to do,
    0:34:04 is what we see here with this new bank of containerization
    0:34:07 that instead of leaving bags on a curb,
    0:34:09 they get put into a bank.
    0:34:13 The key thing is to make sure that if a car hits this
    0:34:17 or dents it or breaks it, that’s gonna be expensive, right?
    0:34:20 So everything’s gonna have its pluses and minuses.
    0:34:23 Actually, everything about New York’s new trash plan
    0:34:24 is expensive.
    0:34:28 The new bins, the new trucks, the new vigilance.
    0:34:29 – Long-term sustainability,
    0:34:32 this is gonna save hundreds of millions of dollars
    0:34:33 for a city.
    0:34:35 This is the most environmentally smart thing you could do,
    0:34:37 the most humane thing you could do.
    0:34:41 If the rats wanna move on to some other place, go for it.
    0:34:46 – That’s a nice thought, in theory at least,
    0:34:48 that New York City’s rats will just move on
    0:34:52 to some other place if their food supply is constrained.
    0:34:54 But first, there needs to be evidence
    0:34:58 that the new containerization plan is actually working.
    0:34:59 The other day, walking down the street,
    0:35:02 I came across a few of the new wheelie bins
    0:35:04 that Jessica Tish is so excited about.
    0:35:07 They were lying on their sides,
    0:35:10 the lids broken off the hinges.
    0:35:13 And if I were a rat, I would be excited.
    0:35:14 What do we have here?
    0:35:19 Shake Shack, Luke’s Lobster, maybe even per se?
    0:35:22 There have also been reports of rats chewing through
    0:35:26 these supposedly rat-proof trash bins.
    0:35:27 In a recent interview,
    0:35:30 the president of New York’s Sanitation Workers Union
    0:35:33 said things that work throughout the country
    0:35:35 don’t work in New York.
    0:35:39 New York is New York, it’s its own thing.
    0:35:43 Now, given his position, he may be sending a message
    0:35:46 because the more you automate trash pickup,
    0:35:50 the fewer jobs there will be for sanitation workers.
    0:35:51 Coming up after the break,
    0:35:55 is a rat-free city even possible?
    0:35:56 It’s clearly possible that you can have
    0:36:00 an urban area without rats, but they do love it there.
    0:36:02 I’m Stephen Dovner, this is Free Economics Radio.
    0:36:03 We’ll be right back.
    0:36:06 (dramatic music)
    0:36:15 Before the break, we heard New York City rat czar
    0:36:19 Kathy Karate say that by the end of 2024,
    0:36:22 some 70% of the city’s trash was no longer
    0:36:24 being placed in flimsy plastic bags,
    0:36:27 but rather in sturdy plastic bins.
    0:36:30 – The goal is 100%.
    0:36:32 – What’s the timeline for that?
    0:36:34 We’re waiting to kind of play out these pilots
    0:36:35 and see what the feedback is,
    0:36:38 what’s the best technology that works.
    0:36:40 Rats do not care about jurisdiction,
    0:36:43 so we need to think about how we do this work
    0:36:45 as a whole-of-city approach.
    0:36:48 – That whole-of-city approach will still include
    0:36:52 some poisons or treatments, as Karate calls them.
    0:36:54 – Some of our, quote, more sexy treatments,
    0:36:57 rat ice is one of them, that is dry ice,
    0:37:00 it off gases carbon dioxide,
    0:37:04 and that asphyxiates the rats right in their burrows.
    0:37:06 We also use a technology called BurrowRx,
    0:37:10 similar idea, it off gases carbon monoxide.
    0:37:12 The rats asphyxiate in their burrow,
    0:37:14 and a new technology that’s come out
    0:37:15 in the last couple years is a canister
    0:37:19 of carbon dioxide, same application.
    0:37:21 The difference with that is we can measure
    0:37:23 how much gas is flowing out of the tank.
    0:37:26 We can actually use that in closer proximity to buildings,
    0:37:29 which is really important in a dense city like New York.
    0:37:31 – And how about the rat birth control?
    0:37:33 We discussed earlier with Bobby Corrigan.
    0:37:36 – Most of the birth control contraceptive
    0:37:39 that’s on the market for rats requires a constant feed,
    0:37:42 meaning they have to feed on it over and over again,
    0:37:46 and if we have food competition, that becomes a challenge.
    0:37:49 – So the mayor who appointed you, Eric Adams,
    0:37:52 this administration is turning out,
    0:37:54 especially in recent weeks as we speak,
    0:37:56 to be one of the most problematic,
    0:37:58 potentially corrupt administrations recently.
    0:38:01 All sorts of investigations, seizures of cell phones,
    0:38:04 the resignation of the police chief and so on.
    0:38:08 What’s it like to be representing a city agency
    0:38:12 like you are now with all that storm going on around?
    0:38:14 I’m just curious from the personal perspective
    0:38:17 of how hard it makes your job.
    0:38:18 – You know, we have a job to do,
    0:38:22 and I come to work every day committed to doing that.
    0:38:26 The immense responsibility to do this well
    0:38:27 for the city that I love,
    0:38:29 for all the people who live in this city
    0:38:32 and feel such a heavy impact from that, that’s the focus.
    0:38:34 – I could also see that because of your job
    0:38:37 and because of how much people care about rats.
    0:38:39 I could imagine if you do this well,
    0:38:41 that you are a mayoral material.
    0:38:42 Is that an ambition?
    0:38:45 – No, I’m just focusing on serving the public.
    0:38:48 I was out twice this week, once in Brooklyn,
    0:38:50 once in downtown Manhattan,
    0:38:52 walking with groups talking about rats.
    0:38:55 I’ve held folks hands as they’re tearing up
    0:38:57 about rats that are in their homes.
    0:38:58 And then on the other side, you know,
    0:39:01 folks who are inventing their own devices
    0:39:03 to keep rats out of their property.
    0:39:04 That’s what I love.
    0:39:06 I love the city, I love our ingenuity,
    0:39:09 our human ingenuity and our rat ingenuity.
    0:39:11 And that’s what keeps me fired up about this work.
    0:39:18 – So how are Karate and her colleagues performing
    0:39:21 in the early days of this war on rats?
    0:39:24 As she told us in part one,
    0:39:27 the science of rat measurement is not very sophisticated.
    0:39:29 There is no reliable rat headcount.
    0:39:33 So the metrics she uses are a bit removed.
    0:39:36 Rat complaints called into the city’s 311 line,
    0:39:41 for instance, and rat sightings in the new mitigation zones.
    0:39:45 Those numbers are down, but much more data is needed.
    0:39:49 And there is a potential countervailing force.
    0:39:52 A new research paper by a large team of biologists
    0:39:56 and pest control experts argues that climate change
    0:39:58 is contributing to the rise of the rat population
    0:40:00 in New York and other big cities.
    0:40:05 So maybe the rat will remain our unofficial mascot.
    0:40:07 – It’s clearly possible that you can have
    0:40:10 an urban area without rats, but they do love it there.
    0:40:13 – That is the Harvard economist Ed Glazer.
    0:40:15 We heard from him in part one of this series as well.
    0:40:20 He is an expert in and huge fan of cities.
    0:40:22 And he grew up in Manhattan.
    0:40:26 I asked Glazer what he thinks of the city’s rat action plan.
    0:40:28 – Impacting the food supplies seems sensible,
    0:40:32 though that requires New Yorkers to be very attentive
    0:40:33 about their trash, which is not something
    0:40:35 I remember all New Yorkers being,
    0:40:37 but perhaps that can be managed.
    0:40:39 – I don’t know how much time you’ve been spending
    0:40:42 in New York lately, but there has been a wholesale change,
    0:40:47 which is the conversion from plastic bags of trash
    0:40:49 that you just throw out onto the sidewalk
    0:40:50 and wait for sanitation to come pick up,
    0:40:53 which plainly doesn’t seem very rat-proof.
    0:40:56 In fact, it’s not at all, to a requirement
    0:40:59 that trash be contained in plastic bins with a top.
    0:41:03 It seems pretty darn sensible and indeed easy.
    0:41:04 – I agree with that.
    0:41:05 That sounds perfectly reasonable,
    0:41:07 although you’re still depending upon the New Yorker
    0:41:09 actively like shutting the plastic bin
    0:41:11 and keeping it effectively closed.
    0:41:12 – Now, what about you, Ed?
    0:41:15 If you were rat czar, in addition to changing the way
    0:41:18 food is disposed of, what other solutions
    0:41:19 might you think about?
    0:41:20 – Well, I would of course start
    0:41:22 with something like measurement.
    0:41:24 One article I saw was that Hong Kong seems
    0:41:26 to be doing a lot with heat-vision things,
    0:41:29 so they’re looking at the rats moving around at night.
    0:41:30 I imagine you could do that
    0:41:32 with some combination of drones and satellite
    0:41:34 in a way that would give you an effective idea
    0:41:36 of where the rat hotspots are.
    0:41:38 – Why would measurement be important for you?
    0:41:39 – Because I want to know
    0:41:40 whether whatever I’m doing is working.
    0:41:41 These things might be right,
    0:41:43 but without measurement, who knows?
    0:41:46 And I think in everything where there’s a problem
    0:41:48 and you don’t feel like you’ve seen a solution
    0:41:50 that’s been tried 50 times and it always works,
    0:41:53 the first thing is to start with the humility to learn.
    0:41:56 Trash cancel, let’s see if the rat density
    0:41:58 goes down sufficiently in this region.
    0:42:00 Presumably, this should be compared
    0:42:01 with the traditional poisoning method.
    0:42:02 – As far as we can tell,
    0:42:06 there’s not really been any kind of decent rat census.
    0:42:07 Why do you think that is?
    0:42:09 Is it that hard?
    0:42:10 – I think it’s pretty hard,
    0:42:12 because a lot of them are indoors.
    0:42:14 Even if you could have drones full-time
    0:42:17 on every alleyway in the city at night,
    0:42:18 that’s not gonna give you a full measure.
    0:42:21 And you don’t even know if you’re seeing a rat at 1 a.m.
    0:42:22 and a rat at 3 a.m.
    0:42:23 Are these the same rats or not?
    0:42:24 Are you actually gonna know that?
    0:42:26 – You know, there was one solution
    0:42:27 we didn’t touch on, one potential solution,
    0:42:28 which has been tried before,
    0:42:31 I believe in Egyptian cities in the old days use this,
    0:42:33 which is just armies of cats.
    0:42:34 Do you like that idea?
    0:42:37 – So Sullivan claims that cats can’t take down
    0:42:41 a fully grown rat, in which case you need terriers.
    0:42:42 Having enough terriers to take on,
    0:42:45 if you thought, let’s say we were at 2 million rats
    0:42:47 in New York, that’s a lot of terriers.
    0:42:48 And it’s not like dogs
    0:42:50 don’t potentially carry diseases as well.
    0:42:52 I’m always worried about introducing large numbers
    0:42:55 of some other species to get rid of one species.
    0:42:57 One thing we haven’t talked about is the eating of rats.
    0:43:00 There’s at least some tradition in parts of China
    0:43:02 for eating rats.
    0:43:04 That strikes me as being an enormously sensible thing,
    0:43:07 somewhat similar to the East Asian practice
    0:43:08 of selling night soil.
    0:43:12 So both Chinese and Japanese cities engaged
    0:43:15 in the practice of basically selling their human excrement
    0:43:17 to farmers in nearby areas.
    0:43:19 And that created a very virtuous circle
    0:43:21 where the farmers had better land
    0:43:23 and the excrement got removed.
    0:43:25 Dealing with the prompt by turning it into something
    0:43:28 that’s desirable, like food, that seems kind of good.
    0:43:29 Now most of the time in the West,
    0:43:31 we haven’t been able to stomach it,
    0:43:33 but that strikes me as a thing to potentially think about.
    0:43:37 – Yeah, I read now the rats that are currently eaten
    0:43:39 in China are often the bamboo rat,
    0:43:42 says they’re specifically bred for consumption,
    0:43:45 an estimated 66 million raised annually in China.
    0:43:48 You don’t happen to know how a bamboo rat tastes
    0:43:50 versus a Norway rat, do you?
    0:43:51 – I do not know.
    0:43:53 I have never eaten either kinds of rat,
    0:43:55 but I would happily eat a bamboo rat in Fujian
    0:43:56 if I were there.
    0:43:59 – What about eating a Norway rat in New York,
    0:44:01 if prepared well?
    0:44:03 – If prepared well, sure, I’m open.
    0:44:05 Is someone actually serving Norway rat?
    0:44:09 – We did look around to see if anyone
    0:44:10 in New York is serving rat.
    0:44:13 We checked in with a restaurant where for another episode,
    0:44:16 I once ate a bunch of insects, which were delicious,
    0:44:18 but they had shut down.
    0:44:22 We could not find rat on a single restaurant menu
    0:44:23 in New York City.
    0:44:25 We also wrote to some private chefs.
    0:44:28 I figured they get unusual requests all the time,
    0:44:30 but no luck there either.
    0:44:32 Here’s how one chef replied.
    0:44:35 Unfortunately, I am not able to source this for you.
    0:44:36 However, I would be happy to cook for you
    0:44:38 and your guests a beautifully constructed
    0:44:40 dinner using squab.
    0:44:43 We passed on that, squab is too easy.
    0:44:48 – I have eaten rat, but I’m gonna tell you that I cheated.
    0:44:50 – That again is Bobby Corrigan,
    0:44:52 the urban rodentologist.
    0:44:55 We’re still huddled with him outside in an alleyway.
    0:44:58 – And the way I cheated is I have a friend
    0:45:02 who works in a laboratory studying drugs and pharmaceuticals
    0:45:04 and they use it on rats.
    0:45:06 So I just said, can you bring me a rat?
    0:45:10 So I ate a laboratory rat, but it’s the same species.
    0:45:12 It’s the same muscle tissue, it’s the same everything.
    0:45:15 So technically, did I eat rat?
    0:45:16 Yes.
    0:45:17 Did I eat nori rat?
    0:45:18 Yes.
    0:45:20 But did I eat wild nori rat off the streets
    0:45:22 that may have come out of a sewer?
    0:45:24 I would be very dumb to do that.
    0:45:29 It’s full of internal worms, viral, you know, it’s disgusting.
    0:45:32 I would not, you’d be dumb to do such a thing.
    0:45:34 – Our next question for Corrigan was,
    0:45:36 well, you know the next question.
    0:45:38 Did his rat taste like chicken?
    0:45:39 – Yes.
    0:45:42 But here’s the thing, all man with muscle tissue, right?
    0:45:44 It’s not that different.
    0:45:47 – Standing in the cold with Corrigan today,
    0:45:48 we aren’t hoping to eat rats,
    0:45:50 we’re still just trying to spot one.
    0:45:54 So far on this tour, we have seen plenty of ARS,
    0:45:57 active rodent signs, but no active rodents.
    0:46:00 Corrigan still has faith.
    0:46:03 – I would put it at about 50, 50 that we’re gonna see
    0:46:05 at least a couple of rats.
    0:46:08 – We head over to a small park in Tribeca.
    0:46:12 Rats love parks because the noy rat
    0:46:14 is actually from Mongolia.
    0:46:18 And in Mongolia, their life was to burrow into the soil
    0:46:19 of the fields of Mongolia.
    0:46:22 So their brain says, get into the earth, right?
    0:46:25 Geotropic positive, get towards the earth.
    0:46:27 Squirrels are geotropic, negative,
    0:46:29 climb trees away from the earth.
    0:46:33 So it’s a situation where parks, if the soil is healthy,
    0:46:37 which it has to be for a park to keep the plants growing,
    0:46:39 the rats get down, they’ll dig a hole,
    0:46:42 you’ll see a hole probably, we’ll find one here shortly.
    0:46:44 – We do find a hole and then another,
    0:46:48 then four more, six burrow holes in one small area
    0:46:50 of one small park.
    0:46:53 – Rodents are really great examples of work hard
    0:46:55 and you’ll be successful, right?
    0:46:58 So these animals, they’re constantly digging in soil,
    0:47:02 constantly constructing burrows, constantly seeking food.
    0:47:03 You know, they get it done.
    0:47:06 And so when people say it’s so hard to get rid of rats,
    0:47:09 it’s like, that’s right, because you’re up against
    0:47:12 a hard-working, intelligent, small rodent
    0:47:13 that we don’t appreciate enough.
    0:47:16 I’m constantly thinking, you know,
    0:47:20 we could actually do things like rats a little bit more
    0:47:23 as crazy as it sounds, and our species,
    0:47:26 Homo sapiens, would be better for it.
    0:47:29 – It’s late afternoon by now, starting to get dark,
    0:47:32 and we give up without having spotted a rat.
    0:47:35 Does this mean New York City’s rat problem is getting better?
    0:47:37 – Maybe, but maybe not.
    0:47:40 The Norway rat is primarily nocturnal.
    0:47:43 – When this city goes quiet, that’s rat time.
    0:47:46 It’s like when you’re inside buildings
    0:47:49 and you’re in the walls, how do they time their time
    0:47:51 to come out when the plumbing stops?
    0:47:54 So when people get ready for bed and they brush their teeth
    0:47:57 and they use the showers, and then all of that stops
    0:47:59 in the building, that’s their time.
    0:48:02 When it starts up again in the morning, it’s back to bed.
    0:48:04 – It does make you wonder.
    0:48:06 Just how much of our war on rats
    0:48:10 is a war against some part of ourselves.
    0:48:12 – Animal behaviorists will say, you know,
    0:48:15 when we do study rat colonies, we’re studying ourselves.
    0:48:16 It’s very true.
    0:48:21 When you put rats under stress, they get aggressive.
    0:48:23 We get aggressive under stress.
    0:48:26 What causes people to, you know, be happy, be sad,
    0:48:30 be anxious, all of those things play out in the rats as well.
    0:48:36 – So, should we be leaning into our shared experience?
    0:48:40 Coming up next time in the third and final episode
    0:48:42 of “Sympathy for the Rat,”
    0:48:45 we will hear about rats as pets.
    0:48:48 – If you wanna love them, you have to know about them.
    0:48:51 – Rats as research subjects.
    0:48:54 – In my experience, rats are better
    0:48:56 for self-administration of drugs.
    0:48:59 – And rats as movie stars.
    0:49:01 Can I just say Ratatouille is an idea?
    0:49:03 As a story, it’s an allegory.
    0:49:05 – That’s next time on the show.
    0:49:07 Until then, take care of yourself.
    0:49:09 And if you can, someone else to.
    0:49:12 Freakonomics Radio is produced by Stitcher and Renbud Radio.
    0:49:16 You can find our entire archive on any podcast app,
    0:49:18 also at Freakonomics.com,
    0:49:20 where we publish transcripts and show notes.
    0:49:22 This series is being produced by Zach Lipinski
    0:49:25 with help from Dalvin Abouaji.
    0:49:27 We had recording help this week
    0:49:29 from me, Vian, and Digital Island Studios.
    0:49:31 The Freakonomics Radio network staff
    0:49:33 also includes Alina Cullman, Augusta Chapman,
    0:49:36 Eleanor Osborn, Ellen Frankman, Elsa Hernandez,
    0:49:38 Gabriel Roth, Greg Rippon, Jasmine Klinger,
    0:49:41 Jeremy Johnston, John Schnarras, Morgan Levy,
    0:49:43 Neil Coruth, Sarah Lilly, and Theo Jacobs.
    0:49:46 Our theme song is “Mr. Fortune” by the Hitchhikers
    0:49:49 and our composer is “Louise Guerra.”
    0:49:51 As always, thanks for listening.
    0:49:59 I haven’t read the Freud “Ratman” stuff.
    0:50:01 I’ve put it off all these years
    0:50:03 because, you know, I can only take so much therapy
    0:50:06 and frankly, therapists can only take so much of me.
    0:50:13 The Freakonomics Radio Network,
    0:50:15 the hidden side of everything.
    0:50:19 Stitcher.
    0:50:21 you
    0:50:23 you

    Even with a new rat czar, an arsenal of poisons, and a fleet of new garbage trucks, it won’t be easy — because, at root, the enemy is us. (Part two of a three-part series, “Sympathy for the Rat.”)

     

    • SOURCES:
      • Kathy Corradi, director of rodent mitigation for New York City.
      • Robert Corrigan, urban rodentologist and pest consultant for New York City.
      • Ed Glaeser, professor of economics at Harvard University.
      • Robert Sullivan, author of Rats: Observations on the History and Habitat of the City’s Most Unwanted Inhabitant.
      • Jessica Tisch, New York City police commissioner.

     

     

  • The Show That Never Happened

    AI transcript
    0:00:05 [Music]
    0:00:12 Life is funny. I think we all know that. And it’s unpredictable, but just how unpredictable?
    0:00:17 Once in a while, something happens that is so outlandish that you never even considered it
    0:00:23 possible. Nasim Talib calls this a black swan event. In my case, I’m going to call it,
    0:00:29 actually, I don’t know what to call it yet. Maybe you can help me name it. Let me explain.
    0:00:35 Last Thursday, on February 13th, we were scheduled to do a live Freakonomics radio show
    0:00:42 at the Wilshire E. Bell Theater in Los Angeles. Now, a live show for us is both rare and atypical,
    0:00:48 because the episodes we put out here every week are very much not live. They are the product of
    0:00:53 many hours of research and recorded interviews and editing and mixing and so on. And that’s the way
    0:00:58 we like it. That’s the kind of show I like to make. But every now and again, we decide to put on a
    0:01:04 live show in a theater with an audience and we record that show to make a podcast episode for
    0:01:09 later. It’s not going to have the depth or the flow of a regular episode, but there is something
    0:01:14 thrilling about the live setting. The interviews that you’re not really sure where they’re going to go,
    0:01:20 the response from the audience that you can’t predict, and of course, any number of strange
    0:01:24 things that might happen when you try to do something that resembles show business.
    0:01:29 Coming into this LA show, we felt pretty good. We had two excellent guests lined up,
    0:01:35 Ari Emanuel, the Super Agent and CEO of Endeavor, who was also the model for Ari Gold from the TV
    0:01:41 show Entourage. And we had the award-winning filmmaker, RJ Cutler, who got his start on the
    0:01:45 Clinton campaign documentary, The War Room, and who’s been making excellent documentaries ever
    0:01:51 since, including a recent one about Martha Stewart. We also had Luis Guerra, who composes and performs
    0:01:56 a lot of the music you hear on this show. He had put together a live band for the evening,
    0:02:02 which I was definitely looking forward to. I love Luis and his music, and he has a network of
    0:02:09 musicians that is amazing. Now, I’m not going to say the mood before the show was buoyant exactly.
    0:02:15 Los Angeles had, of course, been hit by those terrible fatal wildfires, and now it was cold
    0:02:21 and raining hard. When I got to the theater around 4 p.m. for soundcheck, the wind was whipping.
    0:02:28 It felt like a monsoon outside. Plus, there are jitters, always, with a live show. But we were
    0:02:34 excited, and we were excited to have a sellout crowd. The soundcheck went fine, and then I rehearsed
    0:02:42 some cues with the band. They sounded great, no problems whatsoever. I started my final prep,
    0:02:47 which mostly consists of sitting somewhere alone, going over my notes. For a show like this,
    0:02:53 I write a short monologue. In this case, it was about how LA and New York may look like such
    0:02:58 different places, but how they have a lot in common. They’re both places where people come to
    0:03:03 invent themselves or reinvent themselves. I always think the great line from E.B. White,
    0:03:08 “No one should come to New York to live unless he is willing to be lucky.” I would argue the
    0:03:15 same is very much true for Los Angeles. I’m going over my monologue notes, going over my notes for
    0:03:22 the Ari and RJ interviews, and then Ari arrives early. He is always early. I recently heard a
    0:03:26 story about a Zoom meeting that someone had with him that was supposed to start at 2.30.
    0:03:34 By the time they joined at 2.30, Ari had come and gone. The meeting was over. For tonight,
    0:03:39 he had promised us 40 minutes on stage, but with a heart out, he had a plane waiting to
    0:03:44 take him to New York for the Saturday Night Live 50th anniversary celebrations. So anyway,
    0:03:50 Ari gets to the theater early. He’s backstage. He is incredibly fun and interesting to talk to,
    0:03:56 a total live wire. It is true that some people are intimidated by him. He was recently voted the
    0:04:04 most feared agent in Hollywood. Big surprise. Anyway, then RJ Cutler shows up. Totally different
    0:04:10 energy from Ari, less ratatap, but obviously lovely. The two of them are getting along nicely,
    0:04:18 which is not a bad thing for me. So I’m feeling good. Then I notice something strange. The theater
    0:04:23 is quiet. By now, the doors should be open. The audience should be settling in.
    0:04:28 Our pre-show playlist should be playing. I’d put this one together myself. There was some
    0:04:34 Thelonious Monks and Arcade Fire, a piece from Handel’s Messiah, long story,
    0:04:41 and also some music specific to tonight’s guests. For RJ, we’re playing Young Gravies Martha Stewart
    0:04:47 and Ocean Eyes by Billy Eilish. RJ made a great film about Billy called The World a Little Blurry.
    0:04:53 And for Ari, we’re playing Superhero by Jane’s Addiction. That was the theme song from Entourage.
    0:04:59 At least we’re supposed to be playing all those songs. Instead, there is no sound coming out of
    0:05:03 the speakers. And then when I look out from behind the curtain, I see there are no people in the
    0:05:11 seats either. So what’s happening? It turns out that the theater’s PA system had crashed. We had
    0:05:17 been told earlier that it was a new system, state of the art, but, well, I don’t know what happened.
    0:05:22 The next hour was pretty chaotic. The microphones aren’t working, speakers aren’t working,
    0:05:28 keyboard player can’t get any sound out of his keyboard setup. There’s a grand piano backstage.
    0:05:32 We start trying to wheel it out onto the stage, but it’s missing a wheel, so that doesn’t work.
    0:05:39 Meanwhile, Ari Emanuel, the most famous agent in show business, is waiting backstage.
    0:05:44 What the f*** are these people doing? He’s saying. We’re getting close to showtime.
    0:05:49 The theater is still empty. It turns out they didn’t want to let anyone in while they’re trying
    0:05:55 to fix the PA system. As I later learned, some ticket holders were left standing outside
    0:06:02 in the cold rain. Finally, they opened the doors, and people started filling the seats.
    0:06:08 We still didn’t have a PA system. At some point, I take the stage to speak with the crowd, and
    0:06:13 people see me. They start clapping. They think the show is starting, and I announce as loudly as
    0:06:19 I can that no, the show is not starting yet. We don’t have a sound system. And then I ask people
    0:06:24 in the back rows of the balcony, if they can hear me without mics, and they shout, “Yes,
    0:06:30 they can.” So that’s a good sign. I mean, these old theaters were built before amplification,
    0:06:36 so maybe we can pull it off without mics. Ari, meanwhile, is getting even ansier backstage.
    0:06:39 He says, “Let’s just f***ing do it without mics. I can f***ing shout.”
    0:06:46 So that’s the new plan. We’re going to do the show as best as we can without a PA system.
    0:06:53 The band is getting ready, still no mics, still no keyboards, and I have no idea if the video clips
    0:06:58 we had planned to play during the show were going to work. And then suddenly, the system
    0:07:05 starts working again, at least partially. By now, it’s way past the scheduled start time. So
    0:07:12 we hustle up, we wish each other good luck, and we start the show. The monologue goes pretty well.
    0:07:18 And then I introduce Ari. He comes out, and we have a pretty sassy conversation. Covers everything
    0:07:27 from Donald Trump to Elon Musk to open AI to the Blake Lively Justin Baldoni mess and a lot more.
    0:07:35 He stays for nearly an hour. He’s a real pro and a good sport. And then I do a quick AMA and ask
    0:07:40 me anything with a member of the audience named Christina. She asks me how I came up with the
    0:07:48 sign off for this show. Take care of yourself and if you can, someone else too. It is a question I
    0:07:54 wasn’t expecting, and I tear up as I tell the story because I started using that sign off pretty
    0:08:00 early in the pandemic. My wife had been very sick with COVID, and we hadn’t been sure that she would
    0:08:06 recover. But she did, and that line just came to me like when you’re writing a line to a song,
    0:08:14 and it stuck. After the AMA, we bring out RJ Cutler, and he’s just great thoughtful and
    0:08:19 personal. He’s telling great stories about himself and all the people he is embedded himself with
    0:08:26 over the years. We play some clips from his films, and even that works out okay. So I finish up with
    0:08:32 RJ. We say some thank yous, and then we say good night. The audience claps. They seem to enjoy it,
    0:08:36 although I couldn’t really tell how good the show was. Live shows are always a bit of a blur,
    0:08:42 but this one even more so because of the circumstances. It struck me as a bit of a miracle
    0:08:47 that the show ended up happening at all. So we hang out for a little bit more at the theater,
    0:08:53 and then we go to a little after party. Mostly friends and family, maybe 40, 50 folks,
    0:09:00 including my daughter who just moved to LA last year after college. Honestly, she was a big reason
    0:09:05 I wanted to do a show out here in the first place. So we’re eating, we’re drinking, we’re
    0:09:12 laughing now about how close we came to having no show at all. And that’s when our excellent
    0:09:17 editor, Ellen Frankman, comes up to me with a look on her face that I couldn’t quite figure out.
    0:09:24 In retrospect, she looked really ill. She was shaky, her face was pale. So I ask her what’s wrong,
    0:09:31 and she tells me that in addition to the audio failures we had earlier, there was
    0:09:40 another even bigger failure. The show had not been recorded. She says, and I didn’t understand. I
    0:09:47 asked her to repeat herself. She said they didn’t record the show. And I still didn’t quite understand.
    0:09:54 I mean, I’ve been recording stuff for many years now. I was a musician and I used to work in all
    0:10:00 kinds of studios. I was a reporter and used to record all kinds of interviews. I’ve been doing
    0:10:06 this show now for 15 years. We’ve recorded thousands of studio and live interviews,
    0:10:12 many other things. And not once have the people responsible for recording just failed to record it.
    0:10:19 But tonight, that’s apparently what happened. I am pretty sure we did do a live show with Ari
    0:10:24 Manuel and RJ Cutler and Luis Guerra’s band and Christina from the audience. But there’s no
    0:10:32 recording of it. So I’m not really sure. The next several hours were even more of a blur than the
    0:10:37 hour before the show. We thought about trying to partner with RJ Cutler to make a forensic
    0:10:44 documentary of the show, trying to recreate it as best as we could. Some friends who had been in
    0:10:49 the audience had already started sending in bits of video and audio they had recorded. At least
    0:10:56 one journalist had recorded the entire Ari Emmanuel interview, but it’s iPhone on the lap
    0:11:05 quality, not radio quality. So we ditched that recreation idea. For some reason, I wasn’t angry.
    0:11:12 I was just flabbergasted. It was a new feeling, a new experience. I woke up the next morning,
    0:11:18 still more confused than anything. I went out to Brentwood to have breakfast with my daughter.
    0:11:26 We saw Don Cheadle, whom I recognized, and Tom Holland, whom I didn’t. A friend dropped by,
    0:11:31 a college friend of my daughter. He grew up in LA and he still lives there. He’s one of the people
    0:11:38 who had sent us some audio files when he heard about our recording catastrophe. He’s a really
    0:11:44 nice kid and the three of us had a nice breakfast. I asked him how his work was going and also where
    0:11:50 he’s living now. He grew up in Pacific Palisades and his family’s house burned to the ground last
    0:11:56 month. When we said goodbye to him after breakfast, he was shivering outside in a t-shirt. He hadn’t
    0:12:03 even been able to get a new coat yet. As a writer, I’ve always been petrified about losing
    0:12:09 anything I’ve written. I panic if the computer glitches and I lose even a sentence or two.
    0:12:17 And now here, we had lost an entire show. But how does losing a show compare to losing your
    0:12:24 childhood home? Thousands of homes burned to the ground during those LA fires. At least 29 people
    0:12:30 died. It’ll cost billions of dollars to replace what can be replaced and a lot of it can’t. So
    0:12:38 I guess I’m the lucky one. I thought back to this passage from a book called Genius and Anxiety,
    0:12:45 How Jews Changed the World, 1847 and 1947 by Norman Lebrecht. The passage goes like this.
    0:12:54 Moses said the law is everything. Jesus said love is everything. Marx said money is everything.
    0:13:04 Freud said sex is everything. And Einstein said everything is relative. To the 900 people who
    0:13:10 came out to our show that rainy night, thank you. It’s nice to know there were some witnesses.
    0:13:16 And to everyone else who will never hear the show that never happened, well,
    0:13:28 take care of yourself and, if you can, someone else too.
    0:13:40 The Freakonomics Radio Network. The hidden side of everything.
    0:13:45 Stitcher.
    0:13:48 [MUSIC PLAYING]

    A brief meditation on loss, relativity, and the vagaries of show business.

     

  • 622. Why Does Everyone Hate Rats?

    AI transcript
    0:00:05 Hey there, Steven Dubner.
    0:00:09 This year will mark a pair of anniversaries for us.
    0:00:14 And even though I ignore most anniversaries, these two have got their hooks in me.
    0:00:19 It has been 20 years since Steve Leavitt and I published Freakonomics, and it’s been 15
    0:00:22 years since I started Freakonomics Radio.
    0:00:26 So we are thinking about making some kind of anniversary episode, and I want to know
    0:00:29 if you have anything to share.
    0:00:35 Maybe it’s a story about how you were influenced or inspired by something from Freakonomics.
    0:00:39 Maybe it’s some kind of memory or coincidence that you’d like to tell us about.
    0:00:44 Whatever it is, send us an email or a voice memo, whichever you prefer.
    0:00:48 Our address is radio@freakonomics.com.
    0:00:58 Thanks in advance for that, and as always, thanks for listening.
    0:01:04 In the fall of 2022, a new job listing was posted on a New York City government website.
    0:01:09 The ideal candidate, the listing read, is highly motivated and somewhat bloodthirsty,
    0:01:14 determined to look at all solutions from various angles, including data collection, technology
    0:01:17 innovation, and wholesale slaughter.
    0:01:22 And what kind of government job requires wholesale slaughter?
    0:01:25 Here is the man responsible for this listing.
    0:01:32 Rats do something to traumatize you, and I hate rats.
    0:01:36 That is Eric Adams, the mayor of New York City.
    0:01:42 If you walk down the block and a rat runs across your foot, you never forget it.
    0:01:46 Every time you walk down that block, you relive that.
    0:01:51 As you may have heard, Adams was indicted last year on five federal criminal charges,
    0:01:53 including bribery and wire fraud.
    0:01:58 Although, in a remarkable departure from legal precedent, the Trump administration justice
    0:02:01 department just ordered those charges dismissed.
    0:02:07 Through it all, the mayor’s anti-rat fervor has been undiminished.
    0:02:11 Fighting crime, fighting inequality, fighting rats.
    0:02:14 Public enemy number one, many of you don’t know are rats.
    0:02:18 If you’re not scared of rats, you are really my hero.
    0:02:25 In that job that was posted on nyc.gov, that was Eric Adams searching for his hero, who
    0:02:28 turned out to be this person.
    0:02:30 I was certainly taken aback.
    0:02:33 I mean, the job posting itself got a lot of fanfare.
    0:02:35 I just want to read it to verbatim.
    0:02:41 The job posting called for someone with a, quote, swashbuckling attitude, crafty humor,
    0:02:43 and a general aura of badassery.
    0:02:44 Yeah.
    0:02:45 Is that you?
    0:02:46 Yes.
    0:02:49 Those are not words I’d necessarily include in my 150 characters.
    0:02:50 But come on.
    0:02:54 It sounds like you fit pretty well.
    0:02:55 Yeah.
    0:02:59 Thank you.
    0:03:02 And that swashbuckling badass is?
    0:03:03 Kathy Karate.
    0:03:08 I’m the citywide director of urgent mitigation for the city of New York, also known as The
    0:03:09 Rats Are.
    0:03:11 And how do you like that title?
    0:03:12 The Rats Are?
    0:03:13 Yeah.
    0:03:14 It’s good.
    0:03:17 And because the more people are talking about this topic, the better it is for the work
    0:03:19 we’re doing.
    0:03:24 New York and many other cities have seen a rise in their rat populations, especially
    0:03:25 during COVID.
    0:03:27 And now they are fighting back.
    0:03:31 But is wholesale slaughter really the way to go?
    0:03:38 That is one of the many rat questions that I am eager to answer over the next few episodes.
    0:03:44 The brown rat, also known as ratus norvegicus, is one of the most reviled animals in the
    0:03:45 world.
    0:03:47 We really hate them.
    0:03:54 We hate their success, because their success feels like our failure.
    0:03:58 We will hear the details of New York’s rat mitigation plan.
    0:04:03 There’s a whole 99 page report about how we’re going to do that.
    0:04:06 But we will also hear from rat lovers.
    0:04:10 Eventually, because you’re feeding it, because it’s a little bit lovely, you end up feeling
    0:04:12 some warmth towards it.
    0:04:15 And what you might call rat exonerators.
    0:04:21 Blaming the rat is pretty much, you know, game over in terms of the rat’s global reputation.
    0:04:25 And let’s not forget the rat as cultural icon.
    0:04:28 This is a story about a rat who wants to become a chef.
    0:04:30 Everyone laughs.
    0:04:31 Everyone gets it.
    0:04:32 You’re sold.
    0:04:35 Are you sold?
    0:04:39 I’m going to take that as a yes.
    0:04:55 Our three-part series on rats begins now.
    0:05:00 This is Freakonomics Radio, the podcast that explores the hidden side of everything with
    0:05:11 your host, Stephen Dubner.
    0:05:14 Rat mitigation is complicated.
    0:05:17 It’s looking at the forest and the trees at the same time.
    0:05:21 That again is New York City’s rat czar, Cathy Karate.
    0:05:25 Really when it comes down to rats, what we’re talking about is an animal that lives in such
    0:05:30 close proximity to humans, and that’s why we have such a focus on them.
    0:05:35 I understand that your relationship with rats goes back pretty far when you were a kid growing
    0:05:36 up in New York.
    0:05:39 I understand that you circulated a petition in your neighborhood to get rid of some rats.
    0:05:40 Is that true?
    0:05:42 It is true.
    0:05:46 I grew up in a house that was abutting railroad tracks.
    0:05:50 And what you need to know about rats, you’ll get a quick and dirty here, is they need a
    0:05:52 place to live and they need food to eat.
    0:05:57 So any space that’s not getting ongoing maintenance and can have overgrown brush or weeds, things
    0:06:03 of that nature provides ideal habitat for them to burrow and create their nest.
    0:06:05 And that’s what we had behind my house.
    0:06:12 With the encouragement of my mom and our neighbor, we circulated a petition to get the local
    0:06:16 train company to take care of that harbourage condition and dress the rats.
    0:06:17 Did it work?
    0:06:18 It did.
    0:06:19 Yeah.
    0:06:20 You know, they cleaned the area.
    0:06:23 But the hard thing about rats is one time doesn’t solve.
    0:06:29 That’s why it makes it such a challenging issue.
    0:06:35 Karate wound up getting an undergraduate degree in biology and a master’s in urban sustainability.
    0:06:40 She taught elementary school for a while and then she took a job in New York City’s Department
    0:06:43 of Education in their sustainability office.
    0:06:47 How I got tuned into rat mitigation work was through that role.
    0:06:53 We ran zero waste programming and because garbage and rats go hand in hand, my team
    0:06:58 was tasked with rat mitigation on the waste side for public schools.
    0:07:04 So I was out in about 120 different school buildings talking with facility staff.
    0:07:06 How do we manage our waste better?
    0:07:10 Talking with staff, students and principal about waste sorting behaviors and how we can
    0:07:14 make cleaner waste streams less access to food sources for rats.
    0:07:20 The key to pest management, any pest management first and foremost is sanitation.
    0:07:26 Most people, when they think about sanitation, generally do not think of New York City.
    0:07:28 There are many things to love about this place.
    0:07:34 Many things worth admiring, but let’s be honest, it is not a particularly clean city.
    0:07:41 Trash on the sidewalks is a thing, especially food wrappers and big bags of restaurant trash.
    0:07:48 For a population of rats, all that food waste represents something like paradise.
    0:07:51 How big is New York’s rat population?
    0:07:52 There’s no census.
    0:07:55 So if anyone is telling you a number, don’t believe it.
    0:08:02 I have seen an estimate by Eminem Pest Control that puts the city’s rat population at around
    0:08:03 three million.
    0:08:06 Do you think that’s ballpark or no chance?
    0:08:08 We’re not going to discuss a number.
    0:08:12 It’s kind of futile and then anything you put out there then gets used as this water
    0:08:16 mark of it was three million in 2024.
    0:08:19 Someone else said it was eight million in 2006.
    0:08:20 It’s an unfair assessment.
    0:08:25 Now let me go back to your official title, Director of Rodent Mitigation.
    0:08:29 Does that include squirrels, chipmunks, etc.?
    0:08:33 Squirrels, chipmunks, mice, all other rodents in the city.
    0:08:36 The main focus is on rats.
    0:08:38 There’s more of a community aspect when it comes to rats.
    0:08:41 They’re commensal, meaning they sit at the table with us.
    0:08:43 What is that word used, commensal?
    0:08:44 Yes, commensal.
    0:08:45 What does that mean?
    0:08:49 It literally means like a seat at the table, meaning that they are thriving and existing
    0:08:54 because of the plate we’ve set for them in our urban spaces.
    0:08:59 Certainly the house mouse in a lot of regards is more successful we can say than a rat in
    0:09:06 terms of how it breeds and how it occupies urban spaces and non-urban spaces.
    0:09:13 But rats are known for their ability to exploit and thrive where humans are densest.
    0:09:18 How do you think about rats versus the other rodents that are sometimes a problem?
    0:09:22 Rats look like bigger mice sort of, and then there are squirrels which most people seem
    0:09:25 to think are really cute and people feed squirrels outside.
    0:09:31 I’ve never seen anybody feeding a rat outside, but is a rat just a squirrel with less attractive
    0:09:32 body hair?
    0:09:39 In a way, and I would say people are unintentionally feeding rats all the time across our city.
    0:09:44 Maybe they’re not throwing acorns or peanuts, but almost all of human behaviors in urban
    0:09:46 spaces end up feeding rats.
    0:09:48 How smart are rats?
    0:09:49 They are smart.
    0:09:52 I’ve not seen anything like a comparative IQ test for them.
    0:09:54 I mean, chipmunks always look pretty dumb to me.
    0:09:56 They’re super cute, but they look dumb.
    0:09:57 Maybe I’m wrong.
    0:10:03 I would say, you know, in terms of how we gauge savviness, the rat is right up there.
    0:10:09 There’s more and more research coming out about them and empathy and laughing and altruism.
    0:10:10 Seriously?
    0:10:11 Yeah.
    0:10:17 And what we know is in terms of adaptability to survive, there’s few species greater.
    0:10:21 They will avoid new things in their environment because they’re unsure if they’re harmful
    0:10:22 or helpful.
    0:10:27 There are stories of less dominant rats being sent out to test a new food source and then
    0:10:30 being monitored to see if there’s ill effects.
    0:10:40 So they are survivors and I would say no one except humans exploits an urban space better.
    0:10:44 Rats have been exploiting New York City’s urban space for at least a few hundred years.
    0:10:49 The ancestors of today’s rats are thought to have arrived in the 18th century on ships
    0:10:50 from Europe.
    0:10:55 But in the historical rat timeline, that is still relatively recent.
    0:10:58 Genetically, they date back to the time of dinosaurs.
    0:11:04 Today there are two main species, the black rat, ratus ratus, which likely originated
    0:11:05 in India.
    0:11:10 And then the brown rat that we are familiar with, ratus nervegicus, the Norway rat, even
    0:11:13 though it did not originate in Norway.
    0:11:16 So why is it called that?
    0:11:22 Because everybody who hates rats wants to name them after somebody they don’t like.
    0:11:23 That is Bethany Brookshire.
    0:11:28 So basically, the name stuck because somebody was picking a fight with Norway at the time.
    0:11:33 Brookshire is a science journalist with a PhD in physiology and pharmacology.
    0:11:39 She recently published a book called Pests, How Humans Create Animal Villains.
    0:11:42 So you can see where her allegiance lies.
    0:11:45 Here is some more rat history.
    0:11:52 This book was very black rat dominated until we think the 17th or 18th centuries, when
    0:11:57 we began to see the brown rat, that is native to what we think of as Mongolia.
    0:12:02 Ratus nervegicus ended up getting spread into Europe and then with colonialism, it just
    0:12:07 went everywhere else because rats and boats go together real good.
    0:12:13 Interestingly, people have not liked rats, but they didn’t necessarily consider them
    0:12:19 disgusting until about the 18th or 19th century.
    0:12:23 People didn’t like them because they were a problem of the food supply, right?
    0:12:25 They would get in and they would eat your food.
    0:12:27 And nobody wants that.
    0:12:32 But they weren’t considered to be disgusting in terms of they weren’t considered to carry
    0:12:35 disease for a very long time.
    0:12:39 The association of rats with disease is a relatively recent one.
    0:12:43 How did that association come to be made and how much does it intersect with the plague
    0:12:44 in Europe?
    0:12:48 It intersects with the plague, but not when you think it does.
    0:12:53 So there have been three major pandemics of plague that we know of in recorded history.
    0:12:57 The first was the plague of Justinian, which I believe was in the sixth century.
    0:13:03 The second was the black death, which was famous and began in the 14th century.
    0:13:07 The third global pandemic of bubonic plague is now.
    0:13:15 It began in the 19th century, but it persists even now, actually, people every year in the
    0:13:20 United States, in Mongolia, and in Madagascar in particular, get plague.
    0:13:25 To be clear, the plague persists today in very small numbers, just a few hundred reported
    0:13:29 cases a year, fewer than a dozen in the US.
    0:13:34 But this third wave of bubonic plague has done terrible damage over the past hundred
    0:13:40 years in India, especially during the early 20th century and in Vietnam during its war
    0:13:43 in the 1960s and 70s.
    0:13:48 The plague is caused by a bacterium known as Yersinia pestis.
    0:13:52 You see, it’s right there in the name Yersinia pestis.
    0:13:58 The Yersinia part comes from Alexandra Yersin, the first scientist to describe and culture
    0:13:59 these bacteria.
    0:14:03 The bubonic plague is technically not a disease of humans.
    0:14:10 It is a disease of rats and fleas that happens to spill over into humans from time to time
    0:14:11 with catastrophic effects.
    0:14:15 And how much do we know about how the plague is spread?
    0:14:19 What we do know is that fleas get Yersinia pestis.
    0:14:27 And then the bacteria forms a biofilm inside the esophagus of the rat flea.
    0:14:32 And the biofilm coats the esophagus so that the rat flea can’t swallow.
    0:14:35 It’s just biting and biting and biting and biting, but it can’t swallow anything.
    0:14:37 And it starves to death.
    0:14:41 And you start to feel really bad for the flea until you realize that everything it bites,
    0:14:50 it’s barfing up little bits of bacteria into the bite, spreading plague.
    0:14:53 So that’s how plague is traditionally transmitted.
    0:14:54 Okay.
    0:14:57 And then how is plague spread between humans?
    0:15:00 For that, we will bring in another scientist.
    0:15:07 Between humans, it can be spread partly by ectoparasites or by droplets.
    0:15:12 So coughing, when you’re having a cold, then that’s a way of transmission.
    0:15:17 That is Niels Christian Stenseth, a professor of ecology and evolution at the University
    0:15:18 of Oslo.
    0:15:25 And for the last 25 years or so, I’ve been studying plague, Yersinia pestis, the bacteria
    0:15:27 in that caused the black death.
    0:15:31 The black death tore through Europe in the mid-14th century.
    0:15:35 It is hard to believe just how brutal it was.
    0:15:41 The black death killed half of the European population in a year or two.
    0:15:46 The plague expresses itself in the human being in three different forms.
    0:15:51 The most common one is bubonic, where it’s swellings on the body.
    0:15:58 That may evolve into a pneumomic one that goes into the lung, and both might develop
    0:16:02 into a form that goes into the blood.
    0:16:07 If you’re infected by Yersinia pestis, if you don’t come to a doctor within four or
    0:16:14 five days, you can consider yourself being dead.
    0:16:18 During the Middle Ages, it was neither rats nor fleas who were thought to be responsible
    0:16:20 for the black death.
    0:16:27 Most of the blame was put on witches and Jews, but time and science eventually caught up
    0:16:29 with the rats.
    0:16:33 And if anything is going to give an animal species a bad reputation, it’s killing off
    0:16:35 half of Europe.
    0:16:39 The association between rats and plague remains strong today.
    0:16:44 In the opening credits of the Decameron, a new Netflix show set during the black death,
    0:16:49 a massive swarm of rats come together to spell out the title.
    0:16:54 The recent remake of the film Nosferatu shows a pack of rats following the vampire, carrying
    0:16:56 the plague with them.
    0:17:00 But were rats really responsible for the black death?
    0:17:03 That’s the one that most people think are the right one.
    0:17:04 They are wrong.
    0:17:06 That’s coming up after the break.
    0:17:23 I’m Stephen Dubner, and this is Freakonomics Radio.
    0:17:29 One reason that rats are so despised is because they spread disease, the most famous instance
    0:17:35 being the black death, a pandemic of bubonic plague in the 14th century that killed millions
    0:17:37 upon millions of Europeans.
    0:17:43 But scientists have recently challenged the claim that rats caused the black death.
    0:17:49 Scientists including Niels Christian Stenceff at the University of Oslo, challenging a claim
    0:17:51 like this is not a simple thing.
    0:17:57 I usually say to my students that if you want to have enemies within science, study plague,
    0:18:03 because there are so many strong personalities and there are so many different opinions and
    0:18:05 they hate each other.
    0:18:10 The standard epidemiological model of the black death is that humans were exposed to
    0:18:15 the plague by rats who had been bitten by diseased fleas.
    0:18:20 But in 2018, Stenceff and his colleagues published a paper in the Proceedings of the National
    0:18:24 Academy of Sciences where they presented a different model.
    0:18:29 Despite the historical significance of the disease, they wrote, “The mechanisms underlying
    0:18:34 the spread of plague in Europe are poorly understood, while it is commonly assumed that
    0:18:37 rats and their fleas spread plague.
    0:18:41 There is little historical and archaeological support for such a claim.
    0:18:47 We show that human ectoparasites, like body lice and human fleas, might be more likely
    0:18:52 than rats to have caused the rapidly developing epidemics.”
    0:18:58 And what is Stenceff’s evidence that rats were not responsible for the black death?
    0:19:03 He and his co-authors looked at plague death rates from the 1300s to the 1700s, drawn from
    0:19:10 census records and historical accounts from cities including London, Barcelona, Florence.
    0:19:15 Based on the velocity at which the plague spread in these places, Stenceff concluded,
    0:19:21 the human parasite model was much more likely than the rat parasite model.
    0:19:27 It became very clear that rats could not have played a major role in the spread of plague
    0:19:28 in Europe.
    0:19:36 One of the reasons why the rat-led plagues need to be slow is the rat has to die before
    0:19:38 the flea leaves the rat.
    0:19:41 So the flea stays on the rat as long as the rat’s alive.
    0:19:44 It’s only when the rat dies that the flea then hops to a human host.
    0:19:46 And that is Ed Glazer.
    0:19:49 I’m the Fred and Eleanor Glimp, professor of economics at Harvard University.
    0:19:50 That’s right.
    0:19:57 Glazer is an economist, not an epidemiologist or a biologist or even a rat expert.
    0:20:03 But Glazer is an expert in cities, which is where rats thrive and where disease spreads.
    0:20:09 And when we told him we were working on this rat series, he did some extra credit reading.
    0:20:13 I have now read enough in various academic journals that it seems like we have a consensus.
    0:20:16 This was not by and large rat carried.
    0:20:21 They do seem to have played a critical role in the third bubonic plague explosion, although
    0:20:23 probably not in the first two.
    0:20:29 So having determined that, that there is at least some guilt of the rat in at least the
    0:20:33 third pandemic, but perhaps not the most famous, the Black Death.
    0:20:39 How would you say that the modern day reputation of the rat has been affected by or informed
    0:20:42 by its implication in past disease carrying?
    0:20:48 So blaming the rat is pretty much game over in terms of the rat’s global reputation.
    0:20:51 I think we should also just object to using the word guilt on rats.
    0:20:54 It’s not like they know what’s going on.
    0:20:55 They’re dying too.
    0:20:57 I mean, let’s push the guilt where it belongs.
    0:20:58 Let’s go to Yersinia Pestis itself.
    0:21:00 That’s where the evil lies.
    0:21:06 Glazer is the author of a book called Triumph of the City, how our greatest invention makes
    0:21:10 us richer, smarter, greener, healthier, and happier.
    0:21:15 And the fact is that cities and rats seem to be an inevitable pairing.
    0:21:18 In the ruins of Pompeii, there were rats.
    0:21:24 To estimate the size of human populations in ancient cities, modern scientists use archaeological
    0:21:27 evidence of rat populations.
    0:21:31 When cities are at their best, they do enable people who are outsiders to thrive.
    0:21:34 It’s hard to imagine more of an outsider than a rat.
    0:21:40 To an economist, do rats present an obvious economic angle or maybe even multiple ones?
    0:21:42 Well, sure.
    0:21:47 Rats are, you know, they’re agents of usually negative externalities within cities, right?
    0:21:53 So they’re part of what enables diseases to spread across people and consequently they’re
    0:21:54 somewhat risky.
    0:21:59 I don’t know what positive things we get out of rats, but there probably are some in
    0:22:03 the same sense that, you know, the Four Pests program that Mao followed, he thought getting
    0:22:04 rid of the sparrows was great.
    0:22:07 It turns out the sparrows kept the locusts under control and without the sparrows, the
    0:22:10 locusts went haywire and destroyed the crops, leading to a massive famine.
    0:22:16 Now, there was reportedly a big surge in rat population in New York City starting around
    0:22:17 2020.
    0:22:23 I’m curious to know your thoughts on why obviously COVID is a factor to consider.
    0:22:27 There were in the aftermath of COVID, the eruption of hundreds, maybe thousands of
    0:22:30 outdoor dining sheds outside of restaurants.
    0:22:32 So I’m curious what you think of all that.
    0:22:34 Certainly COVID seems to have played some kind of a role.
    0:22:38 I mean, there were a whole bunch of city services that diminished because people were working
    0:22:41 from home or just weren’t going and so forth.
    0:22:43 So I wouldn’t rule that out completely.
    0:22:47 Maybe changes in the food availability seem likely to be quite important.
    0:22:49 This would feel a lot better with some kind of measurement.
    0:22:53 Now, if I recall correctly, you were born and raised in Manhattan.
    0:22:54 Indeed.
    0:22:58 One could imagine that rats destroy or degrade the reputation of a city like New York.
    0:23:00 Do you put much stock in that argument?
    0:23:04 Oh, that seems a little bit farfetched to think that it’s such an important deal.
    0:23:10 I would say that what rats effectively do is they reduce the density level for people.
    0:23:14 And so they tend not to be density multipliers about the good things about cities, which
    0:23:16 are enabling us to learn from one another.
    0:23:20 I’ve never heard of a rat carrying a message that was effectively interpreted, but they
    0:23:27 do seem to carry the negative stuff that we get from being close to one another.
    0:23:29 There’s an economic impact as well.
    0:23:31 So thinking about damages to property.
    0:23:33 They like to chew wires, don’t they?
    0:23:35 They like to chew everything.
    0:23:38 That is New York City rat czar Cathy Karate.
    0:23:41 That is literally their nature to chew.
    0:23:44 They chew through holes and foundations.
    0:23:48 They can damage different food sources when we’re thinking about storage of food and
    0:23:51 grains and things of that nature.
    0:23:57 There’s a human cost in terms of public health and then mental well-being, the mental effects
    0:24:00 on folks living in and around rats.
    0:24:03 That’s well documented in being studied even more.
    0:24:09 Stress, anxiety, depression, documented peer-reviewed papers saying this is real.
    0:24:11 There’s also a public health risk.
    0:24:15 Leptosporosis is one of the more famous illnesses associated with rats, and that’s due to a
    0:24:18 bacteria that they can transmit through their urine.
    0:24:20 So there’s real public health concerns.
    0:24:23 Although from what I’ve seen, the last number is 2023.
    0:24:29 It looked like in New York City, 24 people were diagnosed with Leptosporosis, the highest
    0:24:31 number of reported cases in a single year.
    0:24:35 This city of over eight million, so that sounds like a pretty minor threat, no?
    0:24:36 I’m with you.
    0:24:41 It’s certainly not the highest public health risk we have across our city or the globe.
    0:24:45 But that’s also people, I understand dogs get Leptosporosis as well, and that maybe
    0:24:47 is a bigger problem for New Yorkers?
    0:24:51 Yes, dogs have a vaccine for Leptosporosis.
    0:24:56 There’s other, I’d say, unrealized potential public health risks when it comes to rats.
    0:25:01 So a paper out of Columbia University studied rats across New York City and looked at the
    0:25:07 different lice ticks, fleas they carried, and also looked at different viruses, pathogens
    0:25:12 that were existing on their bodies, and found a bunch of novel viruses that were living
    0:25:14 on them.
    0:25:18 There’s always this threat when we’re talking about viruses, about their potential to mutate
    0:25:20 and jump hosts.
    0:25:25 Because rats are so close to us in where and how they live, that threat just gets higher
    0:25:27 and higher.
    0:25:32 Coming up after the break, is the threat of disease really what this is about?
    0:25:38 The fact that we’re so quick to blame the rat says a lot about us.
    0:25:39 I’m Stephen Dubner.
    0:25:41 This is Freakonomics Radio, and we will be rat back.
    0:25:42 I’m sorry.
    0:25:45 We will be right back.
    0:26:00 A rat is a rodent, a member of the order Rodentia, which contains over 2,000 species.
    0:26:03 Nearly half of all mammals are rodents.
    0:26:08 They are famous for their gnawing ability, which is carried out by large pairs of upper
    0:26:11 and lower front incisors.
    0:26:18 Squirrels, mice, beavers, hamsters, prairie dogs, porcupines, they are all rodents.
    0:26:24 But it seems fair to say that rats are the most despised member of this order.
    0:26:25 Why?
    0:26:28 For that, let’s go back to Bethany Brookshire.
    0:26:34 I’m the author of the 2022 book Pests, How Humans Create Animal Villains.
    0:26:42 Talk about just the title itself and what kind of work you’re asking that word pests
    0:26:43 to do.
    0:26:45 Oh, man.
    0:26:51 Pests, the word, does so much work in our society just in general.
    0:26:59 It has become a word for animals that are not where we want them to be.
    0:27:04 That was one of the things that I became really fixated on is the fact that the animals that
    0:27:08 we hate are so subjective.
    0:27:09 The animals are just being animals.
    0:27:10 They’re about us.
    0:27:16 They’re about where we think animals belong and what we think those animals should be
    0:27:17 doing.
    0:27:23 Do you think the rat has been unfairly tarnished its reputation over time by having been associated
    0:27:24 with the black depth?
    0:27:27 I don’t know that it’s been unfairly tarnished.
    0:27:29 I certainly think there was probably a place for it.
    0:27:37 I do think the fact that we’re so quick to blame the rat says a lot about us because
    0:27:43 the reality is the thing that causes most diseases in humans, like communicable diseases,
    0:27:46 is other humans, right?
    0:27:49 We are the major vectors of disease to each other.
    0:27:53 If we’ve learned anything from the COVID-19 pandemic, it is that.
    0:27:59 Humans do like to assign blame to other animals, but as Brookshire points out, the blame can
    0:28:02 be assigned somewhat randomly.
    0:28:04 Consider the rabbit.
    0:28:08 The rabbit is not a rodent, although it used to be classified as such.
    0:28:13 Today, it is considered a lagomorph since it has four upper incisors, not two.
    0:28:19 For most people, the rabbit is thought of as, I believe the technical term is cute.
    0:28:20 It’s fluffy.
    0:28:21 It hops.
    0:28:26 It has facial features that kind of look like a human baby.
    0:28:34 If we think of rats as trash eaters, we think of rabbits as carrot nibblers, so cute.
    0:28:38 But not everywhere is the rabbit considered so benign.
    0:28:45 In Australia, where rabbits nibble some $125 million worth a year of agricultural crops,
    0:28:52 there is a new rabbit czar tasked with curbing the Australian bunny population.
    0:28:56 In her book, Bethany Brookshire writes about many other animals who are considered pests
    0:29:02 in some circumstances, even if they don’t deserve to be, like snakes and elephants and
    0:29:08 coyotes and the well-known bird that some people today call rats with wings.
    0:29:14 The pigeon became domesticated around 8,000 years ago, we think, which makes it one of
    0:29:17 the earliest domesticated birds.
    0:29:21 Pigeons were cornerstones of many societies.
    0:29:24 They were incredibly important.
    0:29:26 Not just for food, though, we absolutely ate them.
    0:29:30 If you’ve never had squab, I highly recommend it’s delicious.
    0:29:37 We used them as messengers, and in fact, we decorated pigeons that served in war.
    0:29:41 Pigeons were used to carry messages, and one of my favorite things is that pigeons were
    0:29:43 the foundation of modern journalism.
    0:29:44 Sorry?
    0:29:45 Yeah.
    0:29:47 How so?
    0:29:52 When the wire service Reuters started, it was not on a wire, it was on the wing.
    0:29:59 It was on the pigeon, because Reuters figured out he could fly hot stock tips to and from
    0:30:02 Aachen and beat the train by two hours.
    0:30:07 And of course, we also use them for their poop, because pigeon poop is excellent fertilizer
    0:30:09 and there’s wonderful dove coats.
    0:30:14 You can still see some of them today developed by the ancient Persians that are these beautiful
    0:30:19 bell shapes so that all the poop falls to the bottom, and you can scoop it.
    0:30:20 Okay.
    0:30:24 So that history of pigeons is really interesting, but now pigeons, they’re what?
    0:30:26 Just another pest, essentially?
    0:30:27 Yeah.
    0:30:31 There’s a wonderful piece of work by Colin Gerald Mack, who actually documented the
    0:30:38 fall of the pigeon in the public eye via articles in the New York Times over a century.
    0:30:43 And he was able to document that over about a hundred years, pigeons went from noble,
    0:30:47 innocent, beautiful to rats with wings.
    0:30:52 You know, we no longer needed fertilizer, we have chemical fertilizer, we don’t need
    0:30:59 messengers anymore, we have email, and we don’t need squab anymore, we have chicken.
    0:31:03 How would you say that the history of the human pigeon relationship compares with the
    0:31:07 history of the rat-human relationship?
    0:31:13 I would say the history of the human pigeon relationship differs in that we once had a
    0:31:15 use for the pigeon.
    0:31:21 I think of the pigeon as kind of the outdated cell phone of the animal world, right?
    0:31:26 We used to have such a use for them, and now we don’t, and we can’t fathom why they won’t
    0:31:27 go away.
    0:31:28 It’s so sad.
    0:31:29 Okay.
    0:31:37 And if I were to ask you to summarize the downsides and the upsides of rats generally, how would
    0:31:39 you characterize that?
    0:31:42 Well, there are plenty of downsides associated with rats.
    0:31:43 People don’t like them.
    0:31:47 They find them both physically and psychologically really stressful.
    0:31:51 People who live very closely with rats, it’s awful.
    0:31:54 No one should have to live that way.
    0:31:57 Rats give people feelings of unsettledness, right?
    0:32:01 They are very associated with our feelings of disgust.
    0:32:05 And I’m saying that in terms of Western cultures, in terms of like the global North.
    0:32:09 Other cultures do not associate rats with disgust.
    0:32:13 Give me an example of where rats are not thought of as disgusting.
    0:32:15 So the temple of Karnimata.
    0:32:18 It’s located in Dishnogay, India.
    0:32:24 This temple houses around 25,000 black rats.
    0:32:26 And those rats are considered sacred.
    0:32:27 They are holy.
    0:32:33 I got to speak to some of the people who help run the temple, who cook the food for the rats.
    0:32:34 It’s a beautiful temple.
    0:32:38 It has solid silver doors carved with rats.
    0:32:41 There are beautiful marble floors for the rats.
    0:32:47 The rats drink from beautiful decorated bowls of milk, huge bowls of milk.
    0:32:49 They eat a wonderfully healthy diet.
    0:32:52 They get whole wheat, bread, like whole brand.
    0:33:00 They get fruit, vegetables, and people come to make fire and food offerings to these rats.
    0:33:05 It’s because the rats are not considered to be real rats.
    0:33:08 The rats are reincarnations of people.
    0:33:14 So the legend is that this woman, Karnimata, grew up in that area and she grew up to be
    0:33:16 a sage.
    0:33:19 She had mystical powers.
    0:33:24 And so when her sister’s son passed away, he drowned while playing.
    0:33:29 Her sister brought her the boy and begged her to bring him back.
    0:33:34 And Karnimata interceded with Yama, the god of death.
    0:33:38 And Yama said, “Okay, the people from your family will no longer die.
    0:33:41 They will be reincarnated as rats.
    0:33:46 And then those rats, when they die, will again be reincarnated as people.”
    0:33:50 And so now that temple, the family does still worship there.
    0:33:52 And it has been several hundred years.
    0:33:57 But other people, devotees, worship there as well because they believe that they will
    0:34:03 also be blessed if they are devoted enough to be reincarnated as these rats.
    0:34:09 What would you say are the drivers of the difference between one place or one culture
    0:34:15 and another, one in which the rat is looked at as just disgusting, a menace, dangerous,
    0:34:17 scary, et cetera, and one where it’s not?
    0:34:19 What constitutes that difference, do you think?
    0:34:21 I would say there are a couple of things.
    0:34:25 There is one angle that’s very cultural, right?
    0:34:29 I ended up interviewing for my book A Bunch of People Who Worked in Biblical Scholarship.
    0:34:36 We ended up talking about translations and our understandings of things like Genesis.
    0:34:40 And God gave people dominion over the animals.
    0:34:42 It’s a big line, yeah.
    0:34:49 And that has become very deeply ingrained in many of our cultural ideas of what we should
    0:34:53 be able to control and how we should be able to control it.
    0:35:02 I would say that’s one of the reasons that we hate these animals is because we expect
    0:35:04 animals around us to fail.
    0:35:06 We are prepared for that.
    0:35:08 We move into an area.
    0:35:09 We pave it over.
    0:35:13 We put up a Walmart, a Target, a Starbucks, a McDonald’s, what have you.
    0:35:16 And we expect the animals to leave.
    0:35:19 And then we wring our hands.
    0:35:20 We are so upset.
    0:35:24 We have killed off this beautiful species.
    0:35:26 This species becomes beautiful.
    0:35:27 It becomes charismatic.
    0:35:30 It becomes this wonderful thing.
    0:35:33 And look at the horrible stuff we’ve done to it.
    0:35:38 But when an animal is still there, we’re kind of mad.
    0:35:39 We don’t like it.
    0:35:45 It’s now where we’ve decided it doesn’t belong, even if it always lived there.
    0:35:46 Now it’s our space.
    0:35:48 We don’t belong there anymore.
    0:35:53 And we get really upset, especially if the animals begin to thrive.
    0:35:59 And especially if they thrive off things we value, right?
    0:36:05 Our gardens, our crops, our cats, we really hate them.
    0:36:12 We hate their success because their success feels like our failure.
    0:36:16 To the animals that we call pests, what are humans?
    0:36:22 Are we just pests that text and build parking lots?
    0:36:24 That’s actually something I got a lot when I was writing the book.
    0:36:25 It’s humans.
    0:36:26 Humans are the real pests.
    0:36:30 We’re the ones invading the world and taking it over and making it awful.
    0:36:34 I think that’s too easy because it’s the sort of thing that makes you fling up your
    0:36:36 hands and be like, “Oh, there’s nothing I can do.”
    0:36:40 We have choices in the way that we treat other animals and we have choices in the way we
    0:36:41 treat each other.
    0:36:52 And we don’t need to live the way that we always have.
    0:36:57 So I think it is certainly true that the innate human reaction to rats, I don’t know why,
    0:36:59 is largely revulsion.
    0:37:02 That again is the economist Ed Glazer.
    0:37:06 Certainly when you see them in an urban context surrounded by trash, right?
    0:37:10 So you associate the rats with the filth, with drinking the water and the subway, right?
    0:37:13 It’s hard not to think of that as being sort of awful.
    0:37:18 Since rats are no longer a big disease vector, at least for now in most places, do you think
    0:37:24 our frightened view of them is simply outdated and that for the most part, rats are, yes,
    0:37:28 a negative externality of humans in cities, but a really minor one that we shouldn’t
    0:37:30 worry so much about?
    0:37:31 I think it’s probably pretty small.
    0:37:37 That being said, I would still probably be in favor of policies that keep the rat population
    0:37:38 manageable.
    0:37:41 In the sense that who knows what happens if you let it get incredibly vast, who knows
    0:37:44 what new diseases occur, or what spreads across things.
    0:37:48 So I think some control, but not making a fetish out of complete eradication.
    0:37:52 So Ed, let’s play a quick game of word association.
    0:37:55 When I say rats, you say what?
    0:37:56 Cuddly.
    0:37:59 Come on now, you’re just trying to make me happy now, aren’t you?
    0:38:03 You know, it’s hard not to think that rats have gotten something of a bad rat.
    0:38:06 They certainly are not healthy to have in vast numbers around you.
    0:38:10 But you know, it’s a very urban species and I tend to like that.
    0:38:15 They sort of co-live with humans, they’re in some sense our natural city partner.
    0:38:19 I want to run past you at a couple of titles we’re considering for the series.
    0:38:20 Let me know what you think.
    0:38:23 One is the exoneration of the rat.
    0:38:25 Too much?
    0:38:27 It feels a little strong.
    0:38:30 It feels a little strong because it’s not like this thing does not do anything.
    0:38:32 But something in that neighborhood sounds good.
    0:38:35 Could I interest you in sympathy for the rat?
    0:38:36 Yes.
    0:38:37 I love it.
    0:38:38 I love it.
    0:38:41 And the echo, of course, with the Rolling Stones is great.
    0:38:45 Although the Rolling Stones’ sympathy, this is sympathy for the devil.
    0:38:48 The devil is the narrator of that song.
    0:38:53 You know, I shouted out who killed the Kennedys when after all it was you and me.
    0:38:57 So it’s not the purest sympathy, let’s say.
    0:38:59 Do you still like this angle?
    0:39:00 I do.
    0:39:01 I do.
    0:39:04 I think in general having sympathy for a creature that, you know, coexisted with us
    0:39:08 that suffers many of the same negative sides from cities as we do.
    0:39:12 That enjoys many of the same positive sides of cities that we do, the ability to create
    0:39:16 this ecosystem, I think that’s a very worthy aim.
    0:39:19 And even if we do have to control the rat, not viewing it with so much horror, but rather
    0:39:31 viewing it as being, you know, our urban partner, seems like it makes more sense.
    0:39:37 Coming up next time in part two of “Sympathy for the Rat,” we will talk about how to control
    0:39:39 this urban partner of ours.
    0:39:46 I believe that the single biggest swing that you can take at the rat problem in New York
    0:39:50 City is getting the trash bags off of the streets.
    0:39:54 And we’ll explore the city with a master of the urban rat.
    0:40:00 Rodents are really great examples of work hard and you’ll be successful.
    0:40:04 And we’ll visit a place that claims to be nearly rat-free.
    0:40:08 People are desperate and they want to know what our secret is.
    0:40:09 That’s next time on the show.
    0:40:11 Until then, take care of yourself.
    0:40:14 And if you can, someone else too.
    0:40:17 Freakonomics Radio is produced by Stitcher and Renbud Radio.
    0:40:22 You can find our entire archive on any podcast app, also at Freakonomics.com, where we publish
    0:40:24 transcripts and show notes.
    0:40:29 This episode was produced by Zach Lipinski with help from Dalvin Abouaji.
    0:40:34 Thanks to Freakonomics Radio listener Jason Weeks for suggesting this topic.
    0:40:39 The Freakonomics Radio network staff also includes Alina Kulman, Augusta Chapman, Eleanor
    0:40:44 Osborn, Ellen Frankman, Elsa Hernandez, Gabriel Roth, Greg Rippen, Jasmine Klinger, Jeremy
    0:40:49 Johnston, John Schnarrs, Morgan Levy, Neil Carruth, Sarah Lilly, and Theo Jacobs.
    0:40:52 Our theme song is “Mr. Fortune” by the Hitchhikers.
    0:40:54 Our composer is Luis Guerra.
    0:40:56 As always, thank you for listening.
    0:41:06 Whenever I do calls at home, my dog thinks it’s an opportunity to voice his opinion
    0:41:07 as well.
    0:41:19 The Freakonomics Radio network, the hidden side of everything, Stitcher.
    0:41:22 (bright music)
    0:41:32 [MUSIC]

    New York City’s mayor calls them “public enemy number one.” History books say they caused the Black Death — although recent scientific evidence disputes that claim. So is the rat a scapegoat? And what does our rat hatred say about us? (Part one of a three-part series.)

     

    • SOURCES:
      • Bethany Brookshire, author of Pests: How Humans Create Animal Villains.
      • Kathy Corradi, director of rodent mitigation for New York City.
      • Ed Glaeser, professor of economics at Harvard University.
      • Nils Stenseth, professor of ecology and evolution at the University of Oslo.

     

     

  • 621. Is Professional Licensing a Racket?

    AI transcript
    0:00:08 Hey there, it’s Steven Dovner with one last reminder to come see Freakonomics Radio live
    0:00:11 in Los Angeles on February 13th.
    0:00:17 I will be joined on stage by Ari Emanuel, the CEO of Endeavor, and RJ Cutler, the documentary
    0:00:23 filmmaker who made the recent Martha Stewart doc, as well as films on Billy Eilish, Elton
    0:00:27 John, and coming soon, the Dodgers Yankees World Series.
    0:00:30 I think it’s going to be an amazing night, at least on paper it is, you never know what
    0:00:34 happens with a live show, and that’s part of the fun.
    0:00:35 So I hope you’ll join us.
    0:00:41 Tickets at Freakonomics.com/LiveShows, one word, get them fast, only a few left.
    0:00:46 February 13th in LA, produced in partnership with LAist and SiriusXM.
    0:00:54 I’ll see you there.
    0:00:58 What does a hairdresser have in common with a lawyer?
    0:01:06 How about an interior designer, and a doctor, an auctioneer, and a funeral director?
    0:01:10 These are not jokes, I’m sorry, I wish they were.
    0:01:14 What these jobs all have in common is that they require a professional license, which
    0:01:19 is administered by a licensing board that is often made up of other doctors and funeral
    0:01:22 directors and hairdressers.
    0:01:26 This may not be something you’ve ever thought about, and I wouldn’t blame you.
    0:01:30 It’s one of those things a friend of mine calls a meagotopic, meagot standing for it,
    0:01:32 my eyes glaze over.
    0:01:39 But when you think about how our economy works, these labor licensing rules are pretty important.
    0:01:44 It is the most important regulatory institution we have in labor.
    0:01:48 Rebecca Allensworth is a law professor at Vanderbilt University, and she’s written a
    0:01:51 book about professional licensing.
    0:01:56 The Americans like to think of our economy as open and dynamic.
    0:02:02 Allensworth shows that in many ways it’s not, and that these licensing boards help too many
    0:02:07 bad actors stay in their professions and keep too many good ones out.
    0:02:11 And that’s why she called her book The Licensing Racket.
    0:02:16 Professional licensing is too onerous for certain professions, and it just makes the barriers
    0:02:22 too high, it keeps people out, and the investment in what you’re getting for that regulation
    0:02:24 is not worth it.
    0:02:30 And then, for the professions that are left, medicine, nursing, law, now we need something
    0:02:31 like a licensing board.
    0:02:34 Only what we have is terrible.
    0:02:37 By the way, a working title for the book was “Board to Death.”
    0:02:38 [laughter]
    0:02:39 BOARD, presumably.
    0:02:40 Yeah.
    0:02:42 So, it had three problems.
    0:02:44 One, it was dorky word play.
    0:02:49 Two, there was this problem that maybe I was over-claiming by talking about death in the
    0:02:51 title of a book about licensing.
    0:02:54 And then the other one, of course, being that it sounded like the book was going to be boring.
    0:03:00 But the over-claiming point, you know, I do think that it’s dangerous, literally, in
    0:03:05 the sense that there’s a lot of doctors and lawyers out there who are just plain dangerous.
    0:03:12 And we give them a lot of trust and a lot of power as professionals.
    0:03:16 And 20 percent of the American workforce is subject to professional licensing.
    0:03:21 The system is sanctioned by state governments across the country, and it has been expanding
    0:03:22 like crazy.
    0:03:28 Today, in an episode of the Freakonomics Radio Book Club, how much licensing is too much?
    0:03:32 And where has this system gone especially wrong?
    0:03:39 80 percent have a history of major discipline, often for over-prescribing, for malpractice,
    0:03:41 for sex with patients.
    0:03:43 The racket is real.
    0:04:00 The solution, that’s the hard part, but we’ll get into all that starting now.
    0:04:06 This is Freakonomics Radio, the podcast that explores the hidden side of everything with
    0:04:17 your host, Stephen Dubner.
    0:04:22 At Vanderbilt Law School, Rebecca Allensworth teaches contracts and antitrust law.
    0:04:27 Those are pretty standard law school topics, but when she was starting out, she got obsessed
    0:04:33 with a topic that very few legal scholars, really few scholars from any discipline, have
    0:04:34 studied closely.
    0:04:36 Professional licensing boards.
    0:04:39 Let’s start by defining some terms.
    0:04:44 A licensing board is a regulatory body that’s ostensibly part of the state that decides
    0:04:49 who can enter a profession, what qualifications they’re supposed to have, and then also whether
    0:04:54 somebody has done something that deserves a revocation of their license or a restriction
    0:04:55 on their license.
    0:05:01 It’s created by a state statute, but these boards are mostly made up of members of the
    0:05:02 profession.
    0:05:07 People who are working full-time as doctors, respiratory therapists, hairdressers, take
    0:05:12 a couple days off a year to serve on this board and moonlight as their own regulators.
    0:05:13 Okay.
    0:05:15 So that’s what a licensing board is.
    0:05:16 What is it not?
    0:05:19 Well, it’s not really a governmental agency.
    0:05:24 I don’t think that it’s made up of people who have the public good in mind.
    0:05:30 They may think they do, but it really is more like a professional association, a group of
    0:05:35 like-minded professionals who are looking out for the interests of the profession.
    0:05:39 Early on in her research, Allensworth did what you would expect a legal scholar to do.
    0:05:43 She read everything she could find about professional licensing.
    0:05:47 She sifted through legal databases to try to understand first the broad strokes of the
    0:05:50 system and then the nuances.
    0:05:55 She checked out the economics literature on licensing, and she worked all of this into
    0:05:58 a critique that she was starting to build.
    0:06:00 Before long, her work was being cited by the Supreme Court.
    0:06:05 She was invited to speak in Congress and in the Obama White House.
    0:06:09 At this point, her critique was legalistic and theoretical.
    0:06:14 She’d never actually attended a meeting of a licensing board, but when she did that,
    0:06:16 the obsession deepened.
    0:06:18 I went to the first licensing board and I was so shocked.
    0:06:22 I have a friend who’s a journalist, and I was like, “Someone should write an investigative
    0:06:24 journalism piece about this.”
    0:06:29 I kind of meant her, and then as I was saying it out loud, I was like, “Yes, someone.
    0:06:31 Maybe like me.”
    0:06:35 Allensworth wound up embedding herself for four years in the licensing system of Tennessee
    0:06:37 where she lives.
    0:06:39 She attended many board meetings.
    0:06:44 She interviewed more than 180 people covering 28 professions.
    0:06:48 She started writing some journalism on the subject, and now she has published her book,
    0:06:54 The Licensing Racket, How We Decide Who Is Allowed to Work and Why It Goes Wrong.
    0:06:58 The minute you start reading, you can see why she wanted to call the book “Board to
    0:06:59 Death.”
    0:07:01 It’s so time-consuming.
    0:07:02 Sitting there, you don’t know what you’re going to find.
    0:07:04 You have to sift through all of it.
    0:07:05 You have to make these relationships.
    0:07:09 You have to spend enough hours in that room that the people on the board know who you
    0:07:10 are.
    0:07:14 They know you’re going to put in the time to understand what they do, and then you have
    0:07:17 to say yes to everything.
    0:07:19 You have to talk to everyone.
    0:07:23 And that’s how Rebecca Allensworth came to understand how the licensing system works.
    0:07:27 As she describes it, the path to licensing usually starts small.
    0:07:32 Members of a profession, often backed by a professional association, will approach a
    0:07:36 state legislature with a proposal for licensure.
    0:07:42 These proposals, known as practice acts, set the scope and entry requirements and ethics
    0:07:44 rules for a given profession.
    0:07:50 Once a profession secures its initial licensing law, it gains control of the regulatory board
    0:07:51 that oversees it.
    0:07:59 Today, there are around 300 licensed professions in the U.S. regulated by around 2,000 licensing
    0:08:00 boards across the country.
    0:08:03 How did all this get started?
    0:08:06 Some of the first licensees were physicians.
    0:08:11 Licensing started out with medicine in the late 19th century, and it was limited to the
    0:08:14 learned professions so-called.
    0:08:19 Until about the ’70s, since then it’s just been a straight line up the number of licensed
    0:08:23 professions and the people covered by professional licenses.
    0:08:28 This idea of belonging and meaning and prestige plays a big role because people started to
    0:08:31 look around and say, “Our work matters.
    0:08:34 Our work is just as important as this licensed profession.
    0:08:38 Therefore, we need to make sure that we get a licensing law for ourselves.”
    0:08:42 I’ll give you an example, right about the time that people were starting to confront
    0:08:48 the idea of alcoholism in the ’70s and ’80s, there became a shortage of therapists that
    0:08:53 could help you overcome your addiction, and so AA became a big thing.
    0:08:58 Then these AA group leaders wanted to have a little bit more training and professionalism.
    0:09:02 They wanted to become therapists themselves, and so there was a new profession called alcohol
    0:09:04 and drug abuse counselors.
    0:09:07 The idea was that it was going to be a relatively easy license to get, and it was going to increase
    0:09:10 access to care.
    0:09:14 Over the years, this profession looks around and says, “What we do is just as important
    0:09:15 as any other therapist.
    0:09:17 In some ways, it’s even more important.
    0:09:18 Overdose risk is really high.
    0:09:20 This is life or death.
    0:09:22 We need the same level of licensure.”
    0:09:28 It just got ratcheted up to now to where it takes more hours of practice to be an alcohol
    0:09:34 and drug abuse counselor, like internship type hours, than it does to become a physician.
    0:09:35 Okay.
    0:09:39 All the licensed professions you write about have boards, and earlier you said that the
    0:09:41 board situation is terrible.
    0:09:43 Why is it terrible?
    0:09:48 Because of self-regulation because it’s dominated by members of the profession that may want
    0:09:53 to look out for the public, but are much more seasoned in looking out for the profession.
    0:09:57 The policing and disciplinary functions are just not performed well.
    0:10:00 Yes, but also the red tape.
    0:10:04 These boards are responsible not only for disciplining and policing their professions,
    0:10:08 but also deciding how high are those barriers to entry, who’s going to get over it, whose
    0:10:12 criminal record is too bad, and they take it too far.
    0:10:16 And then in the disciplinary side, they abandon public protection.
    0:10:19 Here’s a sentence from the book “Jacket” that I particularly love.
    0:10:24 “When Rebecca Allensworth began attending board meetings, she discovered a thicket of
    0:10:27 self-dealing and ineptitude.”
    0:10:29 The self-dealing we can get to later.
    0:10:31 Let me hear a favorite example of ineptitude.
    0:10:37 The failure of medical boards to be able to tell when somebody is lying to them may be
    0:10:40 one of the most inept things I had to watch.
    0:10:44 So it’s really interesting reading about all the reasons for that and all the ways in which
    0:10:48 a licensing board, even if well-intentioned, is underpowered.
    0:10:52 That would seem to be most prominent in medical boards, right?
    0:10:54 It’s also a problem in law.
    0:10:57 The argument is you have to know the profession, you have to know everything about it to regulate
    0:10:59 it, and that’s the expertise they’re looking for.
    0:11:03 But then they miss what I would say is even more important expertise, which is the regulatory
    0:11:05 expertise.
    0:11:10 You write that licensing boards, quote, “combine the most dangerous features of a professional
    0:11:14 association,” and I have to say, I’d never really thought about professional associations
    0:11:15 as dangerous before.
    0:11:20 And the government agency, boards have all the interests and incentives of a private
    0:11:24 club and the police power of the state to back them up.
    0:11:27 When I first read that, I was sure that you were overstating your case.
    0:11:30 By the time I finished your book, I was pretty certain that you weren’t.
    0:11:38 But if I read that out of context, I might take you for some kind of deep state conspiracist.
    0:11:43 Maybe you are, but can you give me a sense of why you’ve got such a harsh indictment
    0:11:44 in that sentence?
    0:11:48 First of all, I actually love the deep state, and that’s what I want to bring to licensing.
    0:11:51 I want the bureaucrats doing this.
    0:11:56 The problem with the way licensing is done is that full-time employees of the state are
    0:11:57 given no power.
    0:12:02 A lot of the forehead slapping that I saw when I watched these boards regulate was done
    0:12:06 by lawyers and staff of the board who knew better than the members of the board.
    0:12:12 And as far as it being dangerous, what I mean there is nobody’s watching, nobody’s sitting
    0:12:16 in on these board meetings, nobody really knows what’s going on, and everyone assumes,
    0:12:20 “Hey, my doctor has a license, my real estate agent has a license.
    0:12:22 There must be something going on there.”
    0:12:23 There’s more than that.
    0:12:27 You may have a license, but there’s a lot that can be buried within a valid license
    0:12:30 that is still not very good for consumers.
    0:12:31 Exactly.
    0:12:36 The very first board meeting I went to was about a doctor who had traded drugs for sex
    0:12:38 with 11 of his patients.
    0:12:42 And most of that hearing, which was the hearing in which he got his license back, was about
    0:12:49 how they could impose this chaperone requirement, but not alert the patients, not tip them off
    0:12:52 to the idea that there was anything wrong.
    0:12:58 So there’s a lot of cover-up power that a license can give, which makes it really dangerous.
    0:13:01 And in that case, who were the members of the board?
    0:13:06 Did they have any relationship with the person whose license was being considered?
    0:13:10 Well, no, and that’s part of why I resist the word “corruption” when I talk about
    0:13:11 this problem.
    0:13:16 None of the members of the board knew him personally, had any connection to him, had
    0:13:19 any stake, really, in him getting his license back.
    0:13:26 On the other hand, most of them were physicians, and most of them saw this person as having
    0:13:27 started out somewhat like them.
    0:13:30 Sure, he definitely made some very different choices.
    0:13:32 He lost his way.
    0:13:38 He had three different kinds of addiction, and that is something that especially physicians
    0:13:45 are likely to see as having a lot of explanatory power, as capable of being rehabilitated.
    0:13:47 And it’s all about second chances.
    0:13:53 You cite many examples of professionals who face discipline from their licensing board,
    0:13:57 but then they encounter, as you put it, a system full of second, third, and even fifth
    0:13:58 chances.
    0:14:05 And you write that a lot of these regulatory failures come from the most legitimate professions,
    0:14:07 you call them, like medicine.
    0:14:09 Talk about the Michael Lopalia story.
    0:14:12 His was a story of many, many chances.
    0:14:17 Lopalia was using his license to deal drugs and to make money.
    0:14:21 He got in the crosshairs of the licensing board over that first incident.
    0:14:24 They came to his house and they found a whole bunch of drugs that he wasn’t supposed to
    0:14:28 have, some for fun, some maybe he’s selling.
    0:14:29 So they put him on probation.
    0:14:34 But then while he was on probation, because he had lost his DEA number, which allows him
    0:14:42 to prescribe these more high dose opioids, he starts trading in Suboxone, which Suboxone,
    0:14:46 even though it’s used to treat addiction, can also be abused and also has a large street
    0:14:48 value.
    0:14:54 So he does this, he gets caught for it while he’s already on probation with the board.
    0:14:55 And then he gets another chance.
    0:14:59 He gets his license back, the restrictions that they put him on after that hearing were
    0:15:03 basically the same as what they had on the first one.
    0:15:04 What does he do after that?
    0:15:11 Well, now his prescribing is even more limited, in part because he’s facing a federal indictment
    0:15:13 for this same conduct.
    0:15:16 So he goes door to door doing COVID tests.
    0:15:17 This is high COVID, right?
    0:15:20 So he finds people who want a second opinion.
    0:15:25 They want a doctor’s note that says, “I don’t have COVID” even after a positive test.
    0:15:27 He does that for $50 a piece.
    0:15:33 This is just somebody who has used their license not to treat patients, not in the best interest
    0:15:35 of patients, but really for their own gain.
    0:15:38 His license was ultimately revoked, yes?
    0:15:39 That’s right.
    0:15:45 So after all this, and after he was sentenced in his federal case to 18 months in prison,
    0:15:50 they did revoke his license in an order that gives him another path back to licensure.
    0:15:54 Would the revocation have happened if not for the federal criminal charge?
    0:15:58 I am sure that it would not have.
    0:16:02 And even with the federal criminal charge, it wouldn’t have happened if his story hadn’t
    0:16:04 become so public.
    0:16:06 And how did the story become so public?
    0:16:10 I wrote about it in the New York Review of Books, and it also was featured on an episode
    0:16:12 of This American Life.
    0:16:16 I think there was a lot of pressure on the board to pull his license at that time.
    0:16:22 In a case like that, how much evidence does a board have or seek out?
    0:16:28 They’re essentially acting as a court, but in an actual court, the judge and the prosecutors
    0:16:33 have a lot more opportunity, it seems, to gather evidence than these licensing boards
    0:16:38 do, or maybe not more opportunity, but maybe more incentive, I hate to say.
    0:16:40 That’s the big word there, incentive.
    0:16:45 I don’t think there’s much legally constraining the evidence that a board could gather and
    0:16:46 consider.
    0:16:51 The real constraint is resources and incentives.
    0:16:56 Resources meaning this is typically a volunteer board where they don’t have all these investigators
    0:17:00 going out to look through all these files and talk to witnesses and so on, yes?
    0:17:04 Well, they do have investigators, and these would be, in most cases, full-time employees
    0:17:06 of the state.
    0:17:12 But their salaries are paid through the board, and that’s all through licensing fees.
    0:17:16 There’s this conflict of interest where the doctors on the board want to keep fees low
    0:17:18 for the rest of the doctors.
    0:17:22 Their revealed preferences are that they’re happy with minimalist regulation.
    0:17:24 They don’t feel like there’s a real problem here.
    0:17:30 It becomes very low information trials, and in some cases, not very adversarial.
    0:17:36 What happens when misconduct is bad enough that the criminal justice system gets involved?
    0:17:38 What do the licensing boards do then?
    0:17:40 Do they feel chastised?
    0:17:44 Are they themselves ever subject to penalty?
    0:17:46 They’re not subject to penalty.
    0:17:52 What I found is that the presence of some sort of criminal proceeding almost froze the
    0:17:54 board in its tracks.
    0:17:57 I was watching the medical board and the other prescribing boards in Tennessee because doctors
    0:17:59 aren’t the only ones that can prescribe.
    0:18:01 Who else can prescribe in Tennessee?
    0:18:06 Nurse practitioners, physician assistants, some dentists.
    0:18:09 So in this one day, there was this big, splashy arrest.
    0:18:15 I think they arrested 30 Tennessee professionals for dealing opioids.
    0:18:19 This is the federal government, and most of them didn’t have board discipline.
    0:18:23 I had been hearing all along that the real problem with discipline is that they just
    0:18:24 don’t have the information.
    0:18:28 They don’t know who’s screwing up, and they don’t have resources to figure it out.
    0:18:33 Well here we have a sudden, very public set of information.
    0:18:37 These 30 providers might be ones that you’re going to want to at the very least temporarily
    0:18:41 suspend their licenses, which you can do without much process.
    0:18:45 And just meeting after meeting, nothing’s happening.
    0:18:46 Nothing’s happening.
    0:18:47 Meaning they were not called up to the board?
    0:18:49 They were not called up.
    0:18:50 It was like it never happened.
    0:18:52 It was just silence.
    0:18:57 So you’re saying if I’m a doctor and I’m selling opioids out of my car trunk and I get charged
    0:19:02 and whether I’m convicted or not, you’re saying that then my medical licensing board,
    0:19:06 which you would suspect would call me in for discipline or a hearing or something.
    0:19:08 They just don’t even call them.
    0:19:11 They do eventually, but it didn’t happen for a long time.
    0:19:16 I asked about this, and it was like, well, we can’t really proceed against their license
    0:19:18 because there’s this Fifth Amendment problem.
    0:19:23 If they say anything in their licensing proceeding that’s self-incriminatory, that’ll go in their
    0:19:24 criminal thing.
    0:19:25 So that’s one problem.
    0:19:29 Now, that doesn’t answer the question of why you don’t summarily suspend it on an emergency
    0:19:30 basis.
    0:19:31 You can do that without their testimony.
    0:19:36 And then they’re saying, well, also it’s just an accusation.
    0:19:39 And we’re about to have a whole lot more information.
    0:19:44 Like there’ll be either a trial or a plea, and then we can act.
    0:19:49 We’re talking now a year or two before these cases get resolved.
    0:19:51 During which time they’re still seeing patients?
    0:19:57 Yes, although the criminal system knows all of this and doesn’t want that to happen.
    0:20:01 So the criminal judge is in the position of basically restricting their license, which
    0:20:04 is what the board was supposed to be doing.
    0:20:11 So now you have a totally inexpert criminal judge or federal judge saying, you can prescribe
    0:20:14 this, you can’t prescribe that, which is goofy.
    0:20:20 And then in the end, there was a lot more forgiveness even after the conviction than
    0:20:21 I expected.
    0:20:24 The idea there was, well, let’s not pile on.
    0:20:26 Obviously, this doctor’s been through a lot.
    0:20:30 They have a criminal conviction, a huge ding on their record.
    0:20:36 And they also see how devastating a federal criminal conviction can be on your career.
    0:20:37 They don’t want that for themselves.
    0:20:40 They think this is punishment enough.
    0:20:44 And then there’s this heartbreaking part of it that’s like, and they’ll never practice
    0:20:46 on you and me anyway.
    0:20:47 What does that mean?
    0:20:48 Spell that out.
    0:20:54 For board members, I’m giving them the most credit possible without fully realizing they’re
    0:20:56 saying they’re not going to be able to take private insurance.
    0:20:59 They’re not going to be able to work in the highest end hospitals.
    0:21:04 They’re going to be doing things like working in prisons, working for the VA.
    0:21:09 And that’s not really the set of patients that I’m super worried about protecting.
    0:21:11 Those patients are lucky to get care.
    0:21:14 You write about what you call these fallen professionals.
    0:21:19 Louisiana is one state you looked at to see what share of physicians working in prisons
    0:21:21 have a history of board discipline.
    0:21:23 What are the numbers there?
    0:21:24 80%.
    0:21:25 80%.
    0:21:31 Have a history of major discipline, often for overprescribing, for malpractice, for sex
    0:21:39 with patients, the lower down in the market you go, the rate of discipline goes up.
    0:21:44 In the legal profession, which is your profession, should I assume as with medicine that the
    0:21:52 lower you are on the income chain, the more likely you are to have a lawyer who has been
    0:21:54 disciplined and you may not even know about it?
    0:21:56 We really need more data here.
    0:22:00 I would love if my book could inspire more kind of empirical work here.
    0:22:06 But what I do know is that as you receive discipline from your bar association, your
    0:22:10 likelihood of working at a firm goes down.
    0:22:16 And your likelihood of working for yourself and in particular in working in immigration,
    0:22:22 injury law, and indigent defense goes up as you receive discipline from your bar.
    0:22:26 Those are the three categories of clients that are particularly vulnerable.
    0:22:32 You explain in the book how complaints against professional licensees can come from a variety
    0:22:33 of sources.
    0:22:34 They might come from law enforcement.
    0:22:37 They might come from the licensing board’s own investigators.
    0:22:42 But one thing that surprised me is that boards rarely hear complaints brought by consumers
    0:22:43 or customers.
    0:22:44 Why is that?
    0:22:51 Why do licensing boards rarely hear directly from the patients of doctors, the clients
    0:22:56 of lawyers, I don’t know, maybe someone whose haircut went terribly wrong?
    0:23:00 The whole point of a license on a licensing board is the idea that consumers don’t really
    0:23:02 know what they’re getting.
    0:23:04 Let’s take restaurant food.
    0:23:08 Maybe it’s contaminated and not handled properly and you might get sick.
    0:23:10 And so we have some regulation for that.
    0:23:14 But as far as like what’s tasty, what’s hot, what arrives on time, consumers know what
    0:23:16 they’re getting.
    0:23:18 Licensing exists because we don’t know what we’re getting from our professionals.
    0:23:21 We don’t know what the right legal advice is.
    0:23:22 We don’t know if we have cancer.
    0:23:23 That’s why we go to the doctor.
    0:23:29 But then when it comes to complaints, we rely on customers complaining about their professionals.
    0:23:35 And then there’s this other problem, which is that sometimes the bad conduct is stuff
    0:23:36 that the customers want.
    0:23:38 Like selling opioids.
    0:23:43 Selling opioids or getting your lawyer to help you commit a crime.
    0:23:48 So it’s a very bad way of figuring out where is the misconduct.
    0:23:53 And then the licensing boards figure, well, consumers don’t know what’s good practice,
    0:23:55 what’s good medicine, what’s good law.
    0:24:00 I think the place where you see this the most is in allegations about sex abuse.
    0:24:04 All professionals are very concerned, somebody could make up a story.
    0:24:08 And the boards do act as kind of a gatekeeper for complaints like that.
    0:24:13 None of this should stop a regulator from actually investigating and seeing whether it’s true.
    0:24:18 Or if you get two or three very similar complaints, you might think that that’s a little bit easier
    0:24:19 to believe.
    0:24:26 Can anyone look up licensing board disciplinary action or investigative action on their lawyer,
    0:24:28 doctor, et cetera, et cetera?
    0:24:32 In Tennessee, you can look them up and you can see if they’ve had discipline.
    0:24:33 You can’t do it nationally.
    0:24:37 So somebody could have discipline in another state and you don’t know it.
    0:24:41 There’s something called the National Practitioner Data Bank that keeps information about board
    0:24:43 actions and malpractice.
    0:24:45 That can’t be accessed by the public.
    0:24:49 So it’s pretty opaque and it’s especially opaque for lawyers.
    0:24:53 Lawyers really don’t want clients finding out about their business.
    0:24:56 And how do you feel about that as a lawyer yourself?
    0:24:59 As a non-practicing lawyer, I disapprove.
    0:25:03 Maybe if I asked my husband, he would say no, no.
    0:25:04 Is he a practicing lawyer?
    0:25:05 He is.
    0:25:06 He is.
    0:25:10 He has shared with me the professional perspective sometimes of like, well, you know, a lot of
    0:25:14 people complain about a lot of BS and, you know, I don’t know if I want people knowing
    0:25:17 about every complaint against me.
    0:25:18 That’s an understandable perspective.
    0:25:24 If I just don’t know that we want to have that perspective, have the final say in regulation.
    0:25:29 Remember, Rebecca Allensworth believes that the licensing racket, as she calls it, has
    0:25:31 two main flaws.
    0:25:35 It protects bad actors, which is what we’ve been hearing about so far, but also that it
    0:25:40 keeps too many good people out of the occupations they would like to join.
    0:25:41 So what does this do?
    0:25:44 It kind of gives a leg up to people who already have a leg up in life.
    0:25:46 That’s coming up after the break.
    0:25:47 I’m Stephen Dubner.
    0:25:48 This is Free Economics Radio.
    0:26:00 We’ll be right back.
    0:26:05 The legal scholar Rebecca Allensworth spent years investigating the power, reach, and
    0:26:07 shortcomings of professional licensing boards.
    0:26:11 Here’s how she puts it in her book, The Licensing Racket.
    0:26:16 When it came to barriers to entry and restrictions on practice, boards went too far.
    0:26:21 And it came to disciplining dangerous providers that didn’t go nearly far enough.
    0:26:25 Before the break, Allensworth told us about the disciplining problem.
    0:26:30 But she argues that the lockout effect of professional licensing is also damaging.
    0:26:35 We license way too many professions, so we need to just get rid of licensing for many
    0:26:36 professions.
    0:26:41 When you look across the labor force in the US, you say that roughly one in five workers
    0:26:44 in America do a job that requires a license.
    0:26:48 What do you think is the appropriate share of workers?
    0:26:50 Should it be a third of that?
    0:26:51 Should it be a tenth of that?
    0:26:54 I would say a third to a half.
    0:26:56 The beauty professions are quite big.
    0:27:02 A lot of the housing and trade ones, plumbing and electricians, I think are bigger.
    0:27:07 The medical and legal professions, how big are they as a part of the whole workforce?
    0:27:08 Really big.
    0:27:13 About two thirds of the 20% are in the healthcare professions.
    0:27:17 Nurses are totally dwarfed by nurses.
    0:27:22 And I think that there’s a significant number of professionals that have to have some sort
    0:27:26 of license as a nurse that maybe don’t need to be licensed.
    0:27:27 So you’ve got Allens.
    0:27:29 I think they should be licensed.
    0:27:31 Nurse practitioners, they should be licensed.
    0:27:36 But licensed practical nurses is a lot of professions within professions that we lump
    0:27:37 in there.
    0:27:39 They’d have to change their name, though, wouldn’t they?
    0:27:41 They really would, yeah.
    0:27:43 Unlicensed practical nurses.
    0:27:45 Everybody wants to see that, nurse.
    0:27:49 My goal here is not to write a book that says this is what should be licensed.
    0:27:50 This is what shouldn’t be.
    0:27:55 But I did want to provide some guideposts for how you would make that determination.
    0:28:00 You write that professional licensing is, quote, an especially onerous form of regulation
    0:28:06 erecting high financial and educational barriers and that it therefore has a big effect on,
    0:28:10 quote, equality, public health, the economy and the American dream.
    0:28:11 So that’s a lot.
    0:28:13 Oh, I can defend it all.
    0:28:16 Let’s start with the American dream.
    0:28:18 Home ownership used to be the American dream.
    0:28:20 That used to be the way that you knew you’d made it.
    0:28:24 I think there’s a way in which a professional license has taken over that role.
    0:28:29 That’s how you know you really are accepted in the society if you have the state imprimatur
    0:28:31 on the work that you do.
    0:28:35 You see this a lot in the discourse of people who are trying to get new licenses.
    0:28:37 They say, our work is important.
    0:28:39 Our work is dangerous.
    0:28:40 Our work is valuable.
    0:28:42 And we don’t have a license.
    0:28:44 We should have that kind of status.
    0:28:45 Okay.
    0:28:48 So that’s how licensing hurts the American dream.
    0:28:52 How about the other categories, the economy, public health, equality?
    0:28:57 It impacts the economy because it is the most important regulatory institution we have in
    0:28:58 labor.
    0:29:04 There’s more people who are subject to professional licensing than are in unions and are affected
    0:29:10 by the minimum wage combined, 20% of the American workforce, tens of millions of workers.
    0:29:14 So we know that it raises prices and creates scarcity.
    0:29:17 We spend more on health care than any other country.
    0:29:22 I don’t want to oversimplify health care economics, but there is an element of a supply
    0:29:27 and demand problem where prices go up because supply is so low.
    0:29:31 Another way of saying the same thing is that it is very expensive to go to medical school.
    0:29:36 It’s such a huge investment to get into the profession, and that creates a small number
    0:29:39 of practitioners and then prices go up.
    0:29:45 It’s a big problem for equality because you have to have typically a clean criminal record
    0:29:46 to get over this barrier.
    0:29:50 You have to have money to pay for a school.
    0:29:55 You also have to be able to take a year or three out of the labor force to go to school.
    0:29:56 So what does this do?
    0:30:00 It kind of gives a leg up to people who already have a leg up in life.
    0:30:03 So it exacerbates inequality, essentially.
    0:30:04 Exactly.
    0:30:09 I think the place you see this most is with people with criminal histories because the
    0:30:12 one thing you need when you get out of prison is a job.
    0:30:16 That is probably the single most important determinant for how the rest of your life
    0:30:17 will go.
    0:30:24 In a system where a huge chunk of jobs are licensed, you have to overcome the idea that
    0:30:26 you’ve got a ding on your criminal record.
    0:30:31 There’s no real nexus between the idea that you committed a crime and this licensed profession
    0:30:32 that you’re doing.
    0:30:37 I saw a dental assistant get a really hard time about her criminal record in front of
    0:30:38 the dental board.
    0:30:42 It’s very unclear to me what her driver’s license charges had to do with being a dental
    0:30:43 assistant.
    0:30:51 But advocates of licensing argue that licensing can help raise wages for lower education or
    0:30:57 low income workers, especially minorities, by providing a better path to economic sustainability
    0:31:00 because they are in a licensed profession.
    0:31:02 How much sympathy do you have for that argument?
    0:31:03 Not a lot.
    0:31:07 The reason why those wages are higher and the reason why there’s this path is because
    0:31:10 of the people who are left out of it.
    0:31:13 That’s the source of the benefit.
    0:31:18 It’s not enough to say that this particular minority group or this particular disadvantaged
    0:31:22 set of people get a particular benefit out of licensing if the way that they’re getting
    0:31:26 that benefit is by excluding other members from that same group.
    0:31:31 Taking all licensed professions in the US, which ones do you think clearly don’t need
    0:31:32 licensing?
    0:31:39 Well, I think the hair professions are not right for professional licensing.
    0:31:44 I’m laughing only because there aren’t that many people in the world making the arguments
    0:31:48 that you’re making today about the licensing racket, but it seems that every person that
    0:31:52 does make the argument uses hair cutting and hair styling as an example.
    0:31:53 Why is that?
    0:31:58 The reason why hair is such an attractive example is because it’s just so extreme.
    0:32:01 It takes more classroom hours than to go to law school.
    0:32:02 No.
    0:32:03 Come on.
    0:32:04 Yeah, 1,500 hours.
    0:32:05 I’ve done the math.
    0:32:06 My students, I teach at a law school.
    0:32:09 My students have to be in class for 1,200 hours.
    0:32:13 What happens during 1,500 hours of hair styling training?
    0:32:15 What happens during that time?
    0:32:16 Is it just an apprenticeship, essentially?
    0:32:20 There’s a fair amount of books studying, which is actually a big problem because a lot of
    0:32:27 people who want to cut hair aren’t capable of or interested in the book-based exam studying
    0:32:29 that comes along with the professional system.
    0:32:34 A lot of people don’t go to hair school because they think that they won’t succeed, even though
    0:32:42 they could be perfectly capable hair cutters.
    0:32:46 In many of the occupations that Ellen’sworth looked into, there were English-only written
    0:32:50 tests that worked to exclude non-native speakers.
    0:32:55 And while tests and training are designed to improve the quality of services offered
    0:33:01 by a profession, the evidence is mixed to put it generously.
    0:33:06 During her research, Ellen’sworth found that licensing boards put far more energy into enforcing
    0:33:10 their own requirements than protecting the public.
    0:33:14 Consider the board in Tennessee that licenses alarm systems contractors.
    0:33:19 Ellen’sworth found them, quote, “ten times more likely to take action in a case alleging
    0:33:25 unlicensed practice than one complaining about service quality or safety.”
    0:33:27 And then there are the licensing turf wars.
    0:33:30 This is a major source of power for the boards.
    0:33:35 In many states, including in Tennessee, nurse practitioners, for example, must be supervised
    0:33:37 by physicians.
    0:33:42 And the terms of that supervision are set by the boards, and they decide how many nurses
    0:33:47 you can supervise, what kind of intensity the supervision is.
    0:33:50 This is a huge problem for access to care.
    0:33:55 Nurse practitioners can do a ton of medical care that we really desperately need in this
    0:33:58 country, especially primary care.
    0:34:03 And if we were to allow them to practice to the full extent of their training, we would
    0:34:06 have a lot more provision of that care.
    0:34:09 Doctors take the attitude that if you want to practice medicine, go to medical school.
    0:34:13 What’s a little funny about this is they will say, “It’s really important that the public
    0:34:15 get the highest possible quality care.
    0:34:17 We don’t want to cut any corners.
    0:34:21 We don’t want to send anyone to a nurse practitioner if a doctor could have done a better job.”
    0:34:26 They’ll say that in that instance, and then turn around in the disciplinary side and say,
    0:34:30 “Well, any doctor is better than no doctor, and so I’m going to let this guy keep his
    0:34:33 license so he can go on to work at a prison.”
    0:34:38 Let this guy keep his license in part because there just aren’t enough doctors to go around.
    0:34:39 Exactly.
    0:34:44 But isn’t the licensing board or the AMA responsible for the supply of doctors?
    0:34:45 Exactly.
    0:34:50 So on the one side, it’s like we need to have the highest possible standards, which of course
    0:34:52 create shortages.
    0:34:56 Turf wars are a big part of that, and the failure to use nurse practitioners and physician
    0:34:59 assistants to their maximum level is a big part of that.
    0:35:02 Then they turn around with the scarcity and say, “Well, now we have scarcity, so we have
    0:35:06 to let this doctor that’s at best questionable stay in the profession.”
    0:35:07 Yeah.
    0:35:10 It’s a little bit like being the firefighters who set the fire in order to put the fire out
    0:35:12 to prove your value.
    0:35:13 Yes.
    0:35:14 Yes, it is.
    0:35:18 Talk about how licensing affected the medical response to COVID.
    0:35:24 Early in COVID, we had this severe shortage, especially of nurses, but of all medical professionals.
    0:35:27 That made for a higher death rate.
    0:35:31 It brought the whole system to its knees and burnt out a lot of medical professionals who
    0:35:34 then left the profession.
    0:35:39 I think that’s a big part of the story because licensing holds down the number of practitioners.
    0:35:44 Part of the solution was, “Okay, well, we got here because we have state by state licensure.
    0:35:46 Let’s just get rid of that for now.
    0:35:47 If you have a license anywhere, you can travel.”
    0:35:49 Let’s seem to work at first.
    0:35:51 All these people signed up for it.
    0:35:55 They tried to come to New York, but the regulatory apparatus of these boards is so small and so
    0:35:59 underfunded that they just couldn’t actually process all these people.
    0:36:05 The more we talk, the more it seems that states are ceding a lot of regulatory power to these
    0:36:06 boards.
    0:36:11 It reminds me of an argument made by a political scientist I know about how Congress has ceded
    0:36:16 a lot of its legislative authority to the executive branch because it’s so time-consuming
    0:36:18 to make legislation.
    0:36:22 They pass on things and let the president sign an executive order, then it might get
    0:36:26 turned over after the next election, but at least they got something done.
    0:36:33 It feels here like states and state regulators would like these professions to be capably
    0:36:38 regulated, but because it’s so difficult, time-consuming, confusing, etc., they delegate
    0:36:41 that responsibility to these boards.
    0:36:42 Is that unfair?
    0:36:43 Is that about right?
    0:36:45 That’s exactly right.
    0:36:50 It’s even worse than the delegation between legislature and the executive because all
    0:36:53 the regulation by these boards is paid for by the licensing fee.
    0:36:56 It’s actually kind of free to the legislature.
    0:36:59 For example, art therapists are now licensed in Tennessee.
    0:37:02 The fiscal report on it is going to come back zero, which they love.
    0:37:08 My point is you kind of get what you pay for, but it is a huge capitulation to the profession.
    0:37:13 You might call it a dereliction of duty.
    0:37:17 As I said earlier, Allen’sworth is one of a relatively small number of academics who
    0:37:21 have looked into occupational and professional licensing.
    0:37:25 One of the most prominent is Morris Kleiner, an economist at the University of Minnesota,
    0:37:29 whose work has inspired and influenced Allen’sworth.
    0:37:33 Kleiner found that professional licensing adds a 10 percent premium to the price of
    0:37:39 these services, representing an estimated $250 billion in annual cost to consumers.
    0:37:44 The economists Peter Blair and Bobby Chung found that licensing reduces the number of
    0:37:49 providers in a given profession by 17 to 27 percent.
    0:37:54 And none of this is taking into account the immeasurable but massive costs of mishandled
    0:37:59 allegations of sexual abuse, improper prescribing and so on.
    0:38:02 After the break, how about some solutions?
    0:38:03 I’m Stephen Dubner.
    0:38:18 This is Freakonomics Radio, we’ll be right back.
    0:38:23 Rebecca Allen’sworth’s main argument is that occupational licensing inflicts all sorts of
    0:38:27 costs on the American workforce and on consumers.
    0:38:31 She thinks that many occupations should not require licensing at all.
    0:38:36 But how about medicine and law and the other professions where she thinks licensing does
    0:38:37 make sense?
    0:38:41 I asked her in those cases, how should it be done differently?
    0:38:45 It should be bureaucratic, it should actually be governmental, it should be overseen better
    0:38:50 by the legislature and it should be made up of deciders that are not on Monday working
    0:38:55 at a licensing board and then on Tuesday through Friday working in that profession where they
    0:38:58 stand to gain the most from this bad regulation.
    0:39:04 You do talk about federal licensing or eliminating boards entirely in favor of state agencies.
    0:39:06 What do you see as the trade-offs involved?
    0:39:10 I want to see more governmental involvement in these boards.
    0:39:12 There’s two ways you could do this.
    0:39:15 One would be to have the board be advisory to a decision maker.
    0:39:22 This is basically how we do burial services, which is people who can cremate bodies and
    0:39:24 who operate graveyards.
    0:39:29 There’s a bureaucrat who’s in charge of that program and you see much more reasonable regulation
    0:39:35 there than you do for funeral directors, which has a board dominated by funeral directors.
    0:39:39 You could vest the decision-making power in a full-time regulator or you could make the
    0:39:44 boards more or less the way they are now but change their composition so that only a minority
    0:39:47 of members of the board are from that profession.
    0:39:51 If we did that, I’d like to see the other seats go not to randos, which is the way we
    0:39:57 do it now, but rather people who have a stake in that profession from some other perspective,
    0:40:03 you know, patient advocates or even I daresay a professor who has some academic understanding
    0:40:04 of the problem.
    0:40:07 But what about the upsides of licensing?
    0:40:12 I know that you say that the priorities of licensing boards should be protecting the consumer
    0:40:14 and you argue that they just don’t do a very good job of that.
    0:40:20 On the other hand, if I hire, let’s say, an electrician, don’t I take a lot of comfort
    0:40:25 in knowing that they’ve spent a fair amount of time on education and training and compliance?
    0:40:30 That’s the argument for licensure and there’s a lot of work where we can’t reduce it to
    0:40:31 a code, right?
    0:40:35 We can’t say that this is how you diagnose cancer.
    0:40:39 You can’t put it in a rule that you can easily apply and that’s where we need a license.
    0:40:43 We say you have to go to school, you have to pass this test, you have to stay up to date
    0:40:47 and we just hope that if you do all those things that you’ll develop the professional
    0:40:51 judgment where you can make those difficult decisions.
    0:40:53 Electrician, I don’t know, it’s kind of on the line.
    0:40:57 We do have building codes, we do have rules about what goes where and I’m open to the
    0:41:02 idea that those are sufficient, that there’s things you can and can’t do with electricity
    0:41:07 and maybe you don’t have to have elaborate education and judgment or maybe you do and
    0:41:11 I’m wrong about electricians but that’s the point, going to childcare.
    0:41:16 At my kid’s daycare, the people working there were not licensed but of course they had background
    0:41:21 checks and they were subject to rules like you put babies to sleep on their back.
    0:41:24 When you feed them, they have to be sitting in a high chair to avoid asphyxiation.
    0:41:29 Those are reasonable, good rules that we should make people follow when they’re taking care
    0:41:35 of children that protect the public without that real expense of the license.
    0:41:42 You mentioned so many cases of sexual abuse in the medical sphere as a reason for discipline.
    0:41:47 It makes me wonder if a lot of these occupations, you are essentially putting yourself in a position
    0:41:50 of trust or vulnerability with another person.
    0:41:56 I wonder if a lot of the licensing is meant to just prevent or to diminish the possibility
    0:42:02 of that kind of sexual abuse or bad power dynamics or am I being too generous toward
    0:42:05 these licensing bodies?
    0:42:08 Too generous, these arguments are made.
    0:42:13 On the other hand, I have something in my basement, I believe some critter, so I called
    0:42:15 a trapper, which apparently is a thing.
    0:42:19 He came to my house and we were alone and he’s not licensed.
    0:42:20 He was lovely.
    0:42:23 That’s just one way of saying that there’s all kinds of strangers that I led into my
    0:42:27 house to help me take care of stuff all the time.
    0:42:28 Some subset of them are licensed.
    0:42:32 Now that I know what boards are doing, I know that they’re not taking care to make sure that
    0:42:37 that person isn’t scummy or scary, and then the big example is babysitters.
    0:42:43 You could not imagine a more vulnerable job as somebody who’s going to wash your child.
    0:42:48 It is a job for which we want to hire somebody we trust and we do, but it is not necessary
    0:42:52 for the government to say you can or cannot be alone with a child.
    0:42:55 It’s something that we handle through other means.
    0:42:57 You’re in favor of babysitters not being licensed.
    0:42:58 Of course.
    0:42:59 It would never work.
    0:43:04 It would raise prices so high for something that already is a crippling expense.
    0:43:08 It would also exclude a big part of the labor force because it’d be hard to get a license
    0:43:09 if you’re 13.
    0:43:10 Yeah.
    0:43:13 I don’t know what the cutoff would be for the babysitter license.
    0:43:17 When you mention babysitters, it makes me wonder, what about having children becoming
    0:43:18 a parent?
    0:43:21 Does it strike you as odd that cutting hair requires a license in all that training, but
    0:43:26 that becoming a parent, you just need a set of reproductive organs that are working.
    0:43:27 There’s no barriers.
    0:43:31 There’s no exhibit of competence or financial soundness or anything.
    0:43:35 I’ve only thought about this in my personal life, not in my professional life.
    0:43:41 I do often feel unqualified for the job that I have of raising my two kids.
    0:43:43 Would a licensing procedure have helped?
    0:43:46 Would a mandatory training session have helped?
    0:43:51 If everyone of us is really honest, we know that we would not get a parenting license and
    0:43:53 we would have it taken away if we did.
    0:43:55 Screw ups are just too frequent.
    0:44:00 Maybe the point here is like, there’s other ways to protect people from bad things happening
    0:44:06 than licenses, but you can always make some kind of theoretical argument that this license
    0:44:11 is going to help one patient or this license is going to help prevent this one problem
    0:44:12 that happened once.
    0:44:16 When there isn’t a good organized argument on the other side, which often there isn’t
    0:44:21 in these state debates, they just figure it’s a win-win.
    0:44:25 The public gets something, the profession gets something, and it costs the state nothing.
    0:44:29 Where do you see this kind of professional licensing and regulation done well?
    0:44:32 Not in any single state.
    0:44:37 The most positive example is the way that medicine is regulated in the UK, where they
    0:44:42 have more of a separation between the regulatory side and the disciplinary side.
    0:44:46 Both bodies are not dominated by physicians.
    0:44:48 There’s physician input, but it’s not dominated.
    0:44:50 Other voices at the table.
    0:44:54 They have something there called the medical professional tribunal service, and how does
    0:44:55 that work?
    0:44:59 Typically, when you get a panel to hear your case, you have three people, usually one of
    0:45:01 them is a physician.
    0:45:05 One’s a lawyer, and then the third, the statute doesn’t say what they have to be doing, but
    0:45:13 all of them are paid a salary to actually do this regulating work and have training,
    0:45:17 guidelines, and expertise that American boards don’t have.
    0:45:23 There’s no plea bargaining, so everything is all out in the open, and there’s more oversight
    0:45:26 within the legislative body.
    0:45:27 That sounds promising.
    0:45:29 It also sounds like it could take forever.
    0:45:36 I did, with a colleague, look at about five years worth of cases from the UK and Tennessee,
    0:45:39 and I don’t remember thinking that the UK ones go any slower.
    0:45:41 The American system is quite slow.
    0:45:42 What about outcomes?
    0:45:49 Is that system more likely to produce effective monitoring of professionals, including discipline?
    0:45:55 Yeah. We did a head-to-head comparison between doctors in America and in the UK engaged in
    0:46:02 inappropriate sex with patients and overprescribing, and we found a really big difference in how
    0:46:07 many were struck from the registry, which is the term in the UK for losing your license
    0:46:08 than in Tennessee.
    0:46:10 It would seem that, yes, the outcomes are different.
    0:46:15 However, remember, they have socialized medicine, they have the NHS, it’s really apples and
    0:46:17 oranges.
    0:46:22 We can’t say confidently that the process is what leads to this different outcome, but
    0:46:25 we see a better process and we see more reasonable outcomes.
    0:46:28 You can connect those dots.
    0:46:35 Telemedicine spiked during COVID, but there was also a state-based medical licensing issue
    0:46:42 there, which is you could only treat a patient, even electronically, in your own state.
    0:46:46 This is something we talked about recently on the show with Zika Manual.
    0:46:51 He said we just need to get to the next level, to national licensure, but states are jealous
    0:46:52 of their turf.
    0:46:57 Do you see that as a viable solution in a case like that, national licensure?
    0:46:58 In theory, yes, of course.
    0:47:02 There’s not materially different needs of a patient in one state versus another state.
    0:47:08 It would make moving between states and not just electronically but physically much easier.
    0:47:13 It would also create a single thing for us to study so that we could understand how this
    0:47:16 system works rather than doing it state by state.
    0:47:18 In practice, there’s two problems with it.
    0:47:22 One, if we did that, it would be a race to the bottom.
    0:47:27 We would get the requirements of the most onerous state because, as you said, no state is going
    0:47:29 to give up what they’ve got.
    0:47:33 There’s a physician’s compact, which is like an agreement among states to recognize each
    0:47:35 other’s licenses.
    0:47:41 The terms of that compact are essentially the most onerous state.
    0:47:44 I worry if we did a national license that it would be particularly onerous.
    0:47:49 The other reason why it won’t happen is because of the AMA or the ABA or whatever profession
    0:47:55 we’re talking about is going to fight tooth and nail to maintain the state by state system.
    0:47:56 Because why?
    0:47:57 What’s in it for them?
    0:48:01 It’s easier for them to capture these smaller boards.
    0:48:07 I think also the full ability to practice between states increases competition.
    0:48:12 If you can just phone a doctor in Ohio from Tennessee, that’s going to create a lot more
    0:48:15 competition for physicians in Tennessee.
    0:48:17 What’s wrong with competition?
    0:48:18 Economists love competition.
    0:48:21 Some governments proclaim to love competition.
    0:48:26 It creates better quality and cost for most consumers.
    0:48:29 In what way am I totally wrong when I say that?
    0:48:32 Well, I’m an antitrust professor, so I also love competition.
    0:48:35 But competition doesn’t solve all problems.
    0:48:39 That’s where I think the licensing board really has a role to play and regulation has a role
    0:48:41 to play in many professions.
    0:48:45 It’s not all about just what the customer wants when it comes to the professions.
    0:48:47 It’s also not clear what they’re getting.
    0:48:50 There’s an information asymmetry for which a license can really help.
    0:48:56 The other point is competition is not going to solve problems like opioid over prescribing.
    0:48:59 That’s a case of giving the patient what they want.
    0:49:04 How do you think your argument intersects with the new Trump administration?
    0:49:10 Especially Trump himself, but mostly Elon Musk, vowed to shrink the federal government.
    0:49:14 Is it possible that a so-called department of government efficiency will start pushing
    0:49:17 things in the direction that you would like on the state level?
    0:49:22 Well, you spent six years writing a book about this example of governmental inefficiency.
    0:49:23 You get excited.
    0:49:26 It’s like, “Finally, my time is coming.”
    0:49:31 And it turns out that what’s underneath that is just more self-dealing.
    0:49:36 It’s almost the opposite message that I’m trying to give, which is that it’s the bureaucrats
    0:49:37 who know what they’re doing.
    0:49:41 Yes, we need to cut through the red tape, but it’s the self-dealers and the members of the
    0:49:44 profession that have created that red tape.
    0:49:50 So you’re saying that the Musk-Trump version of efficiency just means unregulated versus
    0:49:51 capable regulation?
    0:49:57 Maybe or maybe it means unregulated when it suits Musk and regulated when it suits Musk.
    0:49:59 That’s what I saw at the boards.
    0:50:02 When you give somebody power over their own regulation, they’re going to be hands-off
    0:50:05 when it suits them and they’re going to be hands-on when it suits them.
    0:50:08 So I’m all for cutting red tape.
    0:50:10 The question is, how do we cut it?
    0:50:16 And I think we cannot trust people who have their own self-interest.
    0:50:20 So my profession, journalism, does not require a license?
    0:50:21 Oh, yes.
    0:50:23 This is one of my favorite examples.
    0:50:26 The legal case, obviously, is slam dunk, right?
    0:50:30 You could not have a license for a journalist because of the First Amendment.
    0:50:33 Maybe there are some people who are calling themselves journalists out there that we don’t
    0:50:34 want doing it.
    0:50:35 Oh, there are.
    0:50:36 I can vouch for that.
    0:50:42 At the same time, there’s systems for figuring out who are the most qualified journalists.
    0:50:49 There’s journalism school, obviously who you’re employed by is a big signal of how qualified
    0:50:50 you are.
    0:50:54 I’m not here to defend the marketplace of ideas that we have right now in a full-throated
    0:50:55 way.
    0:51:01 But it’s an example of a profession that is prestigious, important, and has its own kind
    0:51:06 of regulatory or at least sorting mechanism without licensing.
    0:51:10 I do not think we want the government coming in and saying, “This is journalism and this
    0:51:11 is not.”
    0:51:14 By the way, I myself have benefited from this.
    0:51:18 I’m not a journalist, but I acted like a journalist.
    0:51:26 Okay, so for all the reporting you did, all the board meetings you sat in on, the conversations
    0:51:32 you had, and the legal scholarship you added on top of all that, and then writing the book
    0:51:37 itself, do you think your work will have any significant effect?
    0:51:39 I do.
    0:51:44 There’s state legislation that can maybe not solve this problem, but that can help.
    0:51:46 I think that there’s some interest in that.
    0:51:51 There’s a lot of headwinds from the professions, obviously, but I’m hopeful that maybe something
    0:51:52 can shake loose.
    0:51:56 At the very least, I think people should know what they’re up against when they’re trying
    0:51:59 to get a license or when they feel locked out of a profession, or just when they’re
    0:52:04 a consumer of professional services, assuming that the license is on the wall, then this
    0:52:05 is fine.
    0:52:10 I think that it’ll have an impact, hopefully, on everyday people who maybe think about their
    0:52:15 licensed professionals a little bit differently.
    0:52:19 I’d like to thank Rebecca Allensworth for helping me think about licensed professionals
    0:52:21 a little bit differently.
    0:52:24 This is a subject I’ve been interested in for a long time, but I was always looking
    0:52:28 for the right opportunity, the right person, really, to explain it.
    0:52:32 I appreciate how much legwork and brainwork Allensworth put into it.
    0:52:35 Again, her book is called The Licensing Racket.
    0:52:38 I’d love to hear your thoughts on this topic.
    0:52:42 Our email is radio@freakonomics.com.
    0:52:45 Coming up next time on the show…
    0:52:53 Rats do something to traumatize you, and I hate rats.
    0:52:59 The brown rat, also known as ratus nervegicus, is one of the most reviled animals in the
    0:53:00 world.
    0:53:01 Why?
    0:53:08 Rats are known for their ability to exploit and thrive where humans are densest.
    0:53:12 It doesn’t help that they supposedly killed off half of Europe in the Black Death, so
    0:53:17 most people respond to rats with disgust, fear, even anger.
    0:53:22 But not everyone, they’re, in some sense, our natural city partner.
    0:53:24 I certainly have a reverence for them.
    0:53:26 They’re sweet and they’re smart.
    0:53:29 They make great pets, honestly.
    0:53:31 And that thing about the Black Death?
    0:53:34 That’s the one that most people think are the right one.
    0:53:35 They are wrong.
    0:53:37 Very clearly, they are wrong.
    0:53:41 And just wait until you hear the backstory of the film, Ratatouille.
    0:53:45 Can I just say, Ratatouille is an idea, as a story, it’s an allegory.
    0:53:51 We have made a three-part series that we’re thinking about calling “Sympathy for the Rat.”
    0:53:53 That starts next time on the show.
    0:53:55 Until then, take care of yourself.
    0:53:57 And if you can, someone else too.
    0:54:00 Freakonomics Radio is produced by Stitcher and Renbud Radio.
    0:54:03 You can find our entire archive on any podcast app.
    0:54:08 It’s also at Freakonomics.com, where we publish transcripts and show notes.
    0:54:11 This episode was produced by Theo Jacobs.
    0:54:15 The Freakonomics Radio network staff also includes Alina Coleman, Augusta Chapman, Dalvin Abouaji,
    0:54:20 Eleanor Osborn, Ellen Frankman, Elsa Hernandez, Gabriel Roth, Greg Rippin, Jasmine Klinger,
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    0:54:31 Our theme song is “Mr. Fortune” by the Hitchhikers, and our composer is Luis Guerra.
    0:54:34 As always, thank you for listening.
    0:54:35 Say the name of your book.
    0:54:37 The Licensing Racket?
    0:54:38 How we regulate…
    0:54:39 Sorry, okay.
    0:54:40 It’s a long subtitle.
    0:54:41 I’m gonna have to do that one again.
    0:54:42 Okay.
    0:54:43 The Licensing Racket?
    0:54:44 All right.
    0:54:45 One more time.
    0:54:46 The Licensing Racket?
    0:54:49 How we decide who is allowed to work and how it goes wrong.
    0:54:51 I’ve got it as why it goes wrong.
    0:54:52 I know.
    0:54:53 I know.
    0:54:54 Yep.
    0:54:55 Take four.
    0:54:58 You would think that I would come here prepared to say the name of my book.
    0:55:11 The Freakonomics Radio Network, the hidden side of everything.
    0:55:13 (upbeat music)
    0:55:16 you

    Licensing began with medicine and law; now it extends to 20 percent of the U.S. workforce, including hair stylists and auctioneers. In a new book, the legal scholar Rebecca Allensworth calls licensing boards “a thicket of self-dealing and ineptitude” and says they keep bad workers in their jobs and good ones out — while failing to protect the public.

     

     

     

  • When Is a Superstar Just Another Employee? (Update)

    AI transcript
    0:00:04 [MUSIC]
    0:00:08 Hey there, it’s Stephen Dubner, and I thought you might need a bonus episode of
    0:00:10 Freakonomics Radio for the upcoming Super Bowl.
    0:00:14 We recently put out a new episode about the economics of the running back
    0:00:15 position in the NFL.
    0:00:19 This episode, which we first published in 2023,
    0:00:23 looked at NFL teams as employers.
    0:00:27 We’ve updated facts and figures as necessary, although the team rankings we
    0:00:30 discussed are from the 2023 report card.
    0:00:34 So stick around to the end to hear what changed in 2024.
    0:00:36 As always, thanks for listening.
    0:00:43 [MUSIC]
    0:00:47 When I say the words workplace environment, where does your mind go?
    0:00:51 If you’re like most people, you might think about an environment like this.
    0:00:54 Or like this.
    0:00:58 Maybe even something like this.
    0:01:01 Stand clear of the closing doors, please.
    0:01:08 What you probably don’t think about when I say workplace environment is this.
    0:01:12 [MUSIC]
    0:01:18 But if you are one of the roughly 2000 men who play in the National Football League,
    0:01:20 that’s your office.
    0:01:23 I mean, it’s business, let’s not get it wrong, it’s business.
    0:01:29 The NFL Players Association, or NFLPA, is the union that represents the players.
    0:01:35 And in 2023, they conducted their first ever employee survey about workplace
    0:01:36 conditions.
    0:01:39 I would never have thought to ask, are there rats in your locker room?
    0:01:43 And they gave letter grades to each of the league’s 32 teams.
    0:01:47 This is really about, are we giving you the inputs you need to be as productive
    0:01:49 as possible?
    0:01:53 The NFL is the richest and most successful sports league in history.
    0:01:57 Each team is worth at least $4 billion.
    0:01:59 Nobody wants to be known as the cheapskate.
    0:02:03 Before, when it was rumored you were the cheapskate, it was harder to prove.
    0:02:05 Now there’s data.
    0:02:09 And what does the data have to say?
    0:02:13 Among US employees in general, job satisfaction is higher than it’s been
    0:02:14 in decades.
    0:02:18 How satisfied are NFL players?
    0:02:22 Now, you may be saying to yourself, who cares about the workplace environment
    0:02:23 of NFL players?
    0:02:26 They make so much money, the environment shouldn’t matter.
    0:02:31 Or you may say, pro football is so different from what I do for a living,
    0:02:35 there’s no way I’m going to learn anything worthwhile from this.
    0:02:40 Well, if we have done our job in making this episode, you will.
    0:02:45 At the very least, with another NFL season in the books, you will learn which teams
    0:02:48 got the best grades and the worst.
    0:02:50 Never really heard of an F minus before.
    0:03:08 This is Freakonomics Radio, the podcast that explores the hidden side
    0:03:11 of everything with your host, Steven Dubner.
    0:03:20 [MUSIC PLAYING]
    0:03:24 Imagine that you have just graduated from college with a degree in, say,
    0:03:25 mechanical engineering.
    0:03:29 And you know exactly what kind of company you want to work for.
    0:03:34 And let’s say there are 32 such companies within a 100-mile radius
    0:03:35 of where you want to live.
    0:03:39 So which company will you end up at?
    0:03:41 To a large degree, that is up to you.
    0:03:43 You can apply wherever you’d like.
    0:03:47 And if that company thinks you are qualified and they make you an offer,
    0:03:51 you can decide whether to accept or reject the job.
    0:03:55 This is not how it works in professional sports.
    0:03:59 Imagine now that instead of studying mechanical engineering,
    0:04:01 you went to college to play football.
    0:04:04 If you are good enough to play in the National Football League,
    0:04:08 or if you’re an athlete good enough to play in any of the other major American
    0:04:12 sports leagues, you don’t get to choose which team you play for.
    0:04:16 It’s the teams that choose the players in an annual draft.
    0:04:20 Teams with the worst records the previous season typically get to pick earlier
    0:04:23 in the draft and the best teams pick later.
    0:04:28 In the NFL, most rookie contracts will bind you to that team for four years.
    0:04:34 The top ranked players may sign huge rookie contracts with millions of dollars guaranteed.
    0:04:36 But that’s just the top of the pyramid.
    0:04:40 Around 50 percent of NFL players make the league minimum.
    0:04:44 This year, that was a base salary of $840,000 for a rookie
    0:04:47 with gradual increases for each year of service.
    0:04:51 So yes, that’s a big paycheck compared to most first jobs.
    0:04:56 But the average NFL career is barely three years long.
    0:05:00 So a lot of players are out of the league before their rookie contract expires.
    0:05:04 They are replaced by someone even younger and cheaper.
    0:05:07 If you are good enough to stick around, pass that rookie contract.
    0:05:11 And if you’re lucky enough to have remained healthy, those are two big ifs.
    0:05:14 Then you become what is called an unrestricted free agent.
    0:05:18 And you can sell your services to whichever team wants you.
    0:05:23 Finally, after four years in the NFL, you have achieved the workforce freedom
    0:05:26 of a newly graduated mechanical engineer.
    0:05:33 At this point, you may be in for big money, five or 10, even $50 million a year.
    0:05:37 And how does a free agent decide which team to play for?
    0:05:43 Your agent will speak to all the interested teams, try to drive up your price
    0:05:45 and help you sort through the offers.
    0:05:48 There’s a lot to consider how the payout will be structured,
    0:05:52 what kind of incentives and bonus clauses you can get in the contract,
    0:05:56 even the occasional restrictive clause like in the recent contract,
    0:06:01 the Arizona Cardinals offered to resign their star quarterback, Kyler Murray.
    0:06:04 They wanted Murray to, here, I’ll read from the contract.
    0:06:10 They wanted him to complete at least four hours of independent study each week.
    0:06:13 In other words, they wanted to make sure he’s doing his homework,
    0:06:17 studying the playbook, watching film at night, things like that.
    0:06:22 Arizona was criticized for adding this clause and they ultimately removed it.
    0:06:26 And Murray did sign the contract, a five-year deal that could pay out more
    0:06:29 than $230 million.
    0:06:34 When players get to choose their team, they usually go with the highest dollar offer.
    0:06:37 But there are other factors to consider.
    0:06:39 How good is the team?
    0:06:41 Most players want to play for winners.
    0:06:46 How good is the coaching staff and how secure if they’re in danger of getting fired?
    0:06:48 You may be too.
    0:06:50 You might consider the weather.
    0:06:53 Are you a Miami guy or a Minnesota guy?
    0:06:59 And maybe you will also consider the workplace conditions at your new club.
    0:07:02 How good is the locker room and the weight room?
    0:07:04 What about the food?
    0:07:08 How does the team treat your family members on game day?
    0:07:11 Those are the kind of questions most of us wouldn’t think to ask.
    0:07:16 But Joseph Carl Treader, Jr. isn’t most people.
    0:07:21 When we interviewed Treader for this episode, he was president of the NFL Players Association.
    0:07:28 His tenure ended in 2024, and he was succeeded by Detroit Lions linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maven.
    0:07:31 You’ll hear from him a little later in this episode.
    0:07:34 I asked Treader to start with his college background.
    0:07:40 I went to Cornell University and studied industrial labor relations.
    0:07:44 That’s a pretty typical college and major for an NFL prospect, yes?
    0:07:45 Yeah.
    0:07:49 It’s not the normal pipeline to the pros and I think leading into my election, it probably
    0:07:57 helped substantially because there’s not many Cornell ILR grads walking around the NFL.
    0:08:01 The election, Treader mentioned, was for the union presidency.
    0:08:07 He had a long successful career in the NFL, nine seasons as an offensive lineman for the
    0:08:13 Green Bay Packers and the Cleveland Browns with around $45 million in career earnings.
    0:08:20 He retired in 2022 at age 31 and he had two years left on his term as union president.
    0:08:25 I was looking for some new projects to do, so I had a ton of time on my hands and it
    0:08:27 was like, I’m going to take a stab at this.
    0:08:33 This being the workplace survey of all current NFL players, which the union had been talking
    0:08:34 about for years.
    0:08:39 As we saw the responses start pouring in, this is a proof of concept.
    0:08:40 Yeah.
    0:08:41 I was shocked at the response rate.
    0:08:44 I don’t know how many players got the survey and how many responded.
    0:08:49 We have 2,200 active players and we had 1,300 fill out the survey, which is about 60%.
    0:08:53 As we saw the numbers start pouring in, it was like, oh man, we have to do something
    0:08:54 here.
    0:08:58 It’s going to be like report cards, you had to ask somewhat qualitative but also quantitative
    0:09:02 questions to try to figure out how to compare these franchises.
    0:09:04 Give an example or two.
    0:09:08 Rate your locker room one to five, but then also what would you change about your locker
    0:09:09 room?
    0:09:10 What’s missing in your locker room?
    0:09:15 What would be in a five rated locker room and what would be in or maybe missing from
    0:09:16 a one rated locker room?
    0:09:19 I would never have thought to ask, are there rats in your locker room?
    0:09:21 Are there physical rats in your locker room?
    0:09:24 And yet that comes out in the survey because there were.
    0:09:26 In Jacksonville, we should say.
    0:09:27 Not everywhere.
    0:09:28 Right.
    0:09:32 You have to allow the players to fill you in with what’s bothering them.
    0:09:36 There’s one team that doesn’t have outlets in their lockers where they can’t charge their
    0:09:37 devices.
    0:09:38 Who is that?
    0:09:39 Cincinnati.
    0:09:47 The survey was conducted online with guaranteed anonymity.
    0:09:52 In our business, you’re so on razor’s edge of being cut and losing your job.
    0:09:57 The idea that these owners actually think players can walk into their office and tell
    0:10:00 them like, Hey, I think you’re being cheap and you’re not spending enough money on us
    0:10:04 and there wouldn’t be any retribution is a little crazy to me.
    0:10:08 There are some players that do and a lot of it’s the star quarterbacks who are untouchable
    0:10:12 or players that have guaranteed money and feel like they’re safe and they can go in there
    0:10:16 and they can try to drive change for their teammates because they’re a little more protective
    0:10:17 than the average player.
    0:10:20 But that was one of the reasons about making it anonymous.
    0:10:27 It was allowing everybody to voice what they’ve seen without fear of retribution.
    0:10:32 The survey covered eight categories, three were about the physical facilities, the locker
    0:10:35 room, weight room and training room.
    0:10:39 That’s where a player goes for a massage or the hot tub or to get an injury treated.
    0:10:42 There was one question about nutrition.
    0:10:46 How well does each team feed and hydrate the players also travel?
    0:10:49 How comfortable are the airplane seats?
    0:10:52 How about the hotel rooms and do you have to have a roommate?
    0:10:58 The survey also asked how well the team takes care of the players families during the games.
    0:11:03 Is there, for instance, a place for your mom or maybe your wife and young kids to watch
    0:11:06 where they won’t get pelted by beers?
    0:11:12 And finally, the survey asked about the training staff and the strength staff, but interestingly,
    0:11:14 not the coaching staff.
    0:11:20 I didn’t want a category that I felt could be too tracked to wins and losses.
    0:11:23 I really wanted to stick to standard of care like, “Hey, where do you spend most of your
    0:11:24 time?
    0:11:27 The locker room, the training room, the weight room, the cafeteria, like what staff is around
    0:11:28 you most of the time?
    0:11:31 The training staff, the strength staff, how do you travel?
    0:11:32 How do they treat your families?
    0:11:36 Those are the core issues that impact their daily life.
    0:11:38 And I didn’t want it to become like, “Hey, this is a good coach because we win a bunch
    0:11:39 of games.”
    0:11:40 That’s not telling us anything.
    0:11:44 There are some coaches that have a leadership council of older players that meet once a
    0:11:47 week and then acts on those recommendations.
    0:11:50 And I think that’s what a good workplace looks like.
    0:11:53 That was something probably 15 years ago in the NFL.
    0:11:54 There wasn’t any of that.
    0:11:58 It was very much, “We’re doing this because I’m the coach and I’m the boss and I say we’re
    0:11:59 doing it.”
    0:12:05 And now I think more and more of the younger coaches are coming in, being much more receptive
    0:12:08 to hearing feedback and acting on that feedback.
    0:12:12 Trader says the players union had two primary goals in running the survey and giving each
    0:12:14 team letter grades.
    0:12:18 The first was to give players information that could help them decide where to work if they
    0:12:20 ever got that choice.
    0:12:25 The second goal was to help raise the standards across each club by bringing problems out
    0:12:26 into the open.
    0:12:29 That’s why the union published the results.
    0:12:33 We will put the link in our show notes if you want to take a look and why they graded
    0:12:40 each club in all eight categories because in the NFL, turnabout is fair play.
    0:12:41 We’re always measured.
    0:12:43 We’re always graded.
    0:12:45 They can use letter grades, number grades.
    0:12:51 You play 60 plays and they’re like, “All right, you did your job on 80% of plays.”
    0:12:53 That is Jalen Reeves-Maban.
    0:12:58 He is a linebacker with the Detroit Lions and president of the NFL Players Association.
    0:13:03 We’re judged at every step and I don’t think there’s ever really been a time where accountability
    0:13:10 has gone to the teams or the ownership of like, “Hey, are you being excellent here?
    0:13:12 Like, where’s your grade in this area?”
    0:13:15 Reeves-Maban has been in the league since 2017.
    0:13:20 He started his career with Detroit, then went to Houston for one season and when we spoke
    0:13:27 with him, he was back with Detroit on a one-year contract with a base salary of $1.25 million.
    0:13:34 He played well and last year he signed a two-year extension with the Lions for $7.5 million.
    0:13:36 What does Detroit get in return for that salary?
    0:13:42 It’s the combination of the mental aspect where every week I have to learn a new opponent,
    0:13:46 I have to learn what they’re trying to do to attack me, but I also have this physical
    0:13:49 aspect of I’m playing a violent game.
    0:13:53 If I’m not violent, I’m probably going to get hurt, but I can’t be scared.
    0:13:56 I can’t be scared to get hurt because then that’s going to show in your performance.
    0:14:02 So you kind of got to have a recklessness in the sense or just a willingness to take
    0:14:03 that pain.
    0:14:08 That combined with the physical, the conditioning, the stamina, the energy, the persistence you
    0:14:10 have to have, it’s a lot.
    0:14:14 So I think it’s extremely hard, but I know that in all walks of life, people are working
    0:14:15 extremely hard.
    0:14:20 I have to add, too, just the media scrutiny and the fact that you’re basically on public
    0:14:22 display all the time.
    0:14:28 I don’t think the average person knows how heavy that feels on your shoulders.
    0:14:33 You can basically determine a mood for a whole city or a whole state based off what you did
    0:14:35 on Sunday in a three-hour period.
    0:14:38 So there’s a lot that comes with it.
    0:14:41 The NFL is a commercial juggernaut.
    0:14:46 If you look at Variety’s list of the top 25 primetime TV broadcasts from last year,
    0:14:50 you’ll see that 18 of those 25 were NFL games.
    0:14:55 The exceptions were the Oscars, the Summer Olympics, the Grammys, the Presidential Debate,
    0:14:58 the World Series, and a college football semifinal.
    0:15:01 I mean, there’s so much money involved.
    0:15:06 And with so much money, the league has TV deals worth more than $100 billion over roughly
    0:15:07 a decade.
    0:15:11 Reeves Maven says the survey findings were pretty surprising.
    0:15:17 Well, there was reports of teams having a rat infestation in the locker room.
    0:15:21 There’s guys who don’t get fed after practices.
    0:15:23 The team was charging them for food.
    0:15:28 I know sometimes these things might seem like, oh, you got enough money to pay for it, but
    0:15:31 we are operating at the highest level possible.
    0:15:36 They demand excellence from us, and I think that we should be demanding excellence from
    0:15:37 the teams.
    0:15:42 Jaycee Tredder was also surprised to learn that some players were being charged for food
    0:15:44 at team facilities.
    0:15:48 That was one where I had to reach out to several people to make sure I was hearing it correctly
    0:15:52 of, wait, I just want to make sure for the fourth time, is this true?
    0:15:58 Because that is so preposterous, and a job where what you fuel your body with is so important
    0:16:02 to almost push them out of the building, to push them to fast food, to push them to poor
    0:16:06 nutrition is such like a backwards way of looking at our industry.
    0:16:07 It was crazy.
    0:16:09 And why do you think those teams do it?
    0:16:11 Is it just, it’s the way it was always done?
    0:16:13 Are they really trying to save money?
    0:16:14 I don’t know.
    0:16:15 It was one team.
    0:16:18 It was the Arizona Cardinals who made people pay.
    0:16:22 There are three other teams that didn’t provide it, and I don’t think the cost they were charging
    0:16:27 would pay for the meals anyways is almost like the control factor of it of, hey, just
    0:16:28 know your place.
    0:16:32 Can you talk about what you mean with that know your place sentiment?
    0:16:38 Because I think the public sees football players as superstars, not as employees coming into
    0:16:42 a workplace with bosses and needing to know their place.
    0:16:43 Yeah.
    0:16:46 From a union perspective, we’re negotiating for the same things that any union is, better
    0:16:53 wages, better benefits, better working conditions, but there is a level of control that’s always
    0:16:59 being fought after and the league, there’s a piece of them that just wants to make sure
    0:17:03 that we know that they have control of us.
    0:17:09 From individual teams, like you said, we are just workers and some coaches and some bosses
    0:17:15 are better at working with their employees about different changes that need to be made,
    0:17:20 whether it’s scheduling, whether it’s technique, whether it’s how they operate.
    0:17:25 And some aren’t good, I sometimes get frustrated when we’re defined too much as just players
    0:17:29 because I think it takes us away out of the real world and puts us into football world
    0:17:31 and we are workers and we’re fighting for the same things.
    0:17:36 And I think that’s one of our struggles as a union because of our short lifespan where
    0:17:44 somebody comes into a union job and they can make sacrifices and bargain a certain way because
    0:17:47 they have the opportunity to be in that job for 30, 40 years.
    0:17:50 So sacrificing for today, they’re going to see the fruits of that labor and that’s not
    0:17:51 always true for us.
    0:17:56 So the sacrifices one group makes, they’re probably never seeing the benefits of those
    0:17:57 sacrifices.
    0:18:01 But when it comes to the negotiating, there is a pie out there and I think your job as
    0:18:05 an individual or as a union is to get the biggest share if possible.
    0:18:09 I have to say, you can really sound like an old fashioned union agitator when you need
    0:18:12 to.
    0:18:16 When you look at the overall results of your survey, especially the team rankings, the teams
    0:18:24 that come in ranked high and the teams that come in ranked low, among the top ranked teams,
    0:18:25 what do they have in common?
    0:18:28 Whether it’s ownership, whether it’s an attitude.
    0:18:31 The top three teams all have brand new facilities.
    0:18:37 When we talk about facilities, I think sometimes the fans don’t understand how different franchises
    0:18:38 work.
    0:18:39 So everybody thinks of their stadiums.
    0:18:43 So like the Rams and the Chargers were poorly ranked and you heard a lot of questions of
    0:18:46 like, whoa, SoFi stadiums brand new, they put billions of dollars into it.
    0:18:47 How is it poorly ranked?
    0:18:49 That’s not where players spend their days.
    0:18:51 That’s where they play for one day a week.
    0:18:54 But their facilities are usually located elsewhere.
    0:18:56 So some of that is just random when the survey is done.
    0:18:59 So in 10 years, those facilities will be getting a little radion.
    0:19:02 Whoever else has new facilities, they’ll probably rank a little bit higher because of that.
    0:19:03 Yeah.
    0:19:04 If teams do get new facilities, right?
    0:19:10 Like some of these teams have had old facilities forever.
    0:19:14 So who are the top three teams in the players union survey?
    0:19:15 Not their teams.
    0:19:19 Our Minnesota was number one, Miami was number two and Las Vegas was number three.
    0:19:24 The owners of the Minnesota Vikings and the Miami Dolphins both made their money in real
    0:19:25 estate development.
    0:19:29 So it probably shouldn’t surprise us that they brought their real estate shops to their
    0:19:31 football investments.
    0:19:37 The big surprise, to me at least, is that some of the best teams in football rank toward
    0:19:38 the bottom.
    0:19:42 If you look at the winners of the past six Super Bowls, the New England Patriots, the
    0:19:47 LA Rams, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Kansas City Chiefs who won it three times,
    0:19:52 none of them ranked higher than 24th out of 32 teams in 2023.
    0:19:58 I asked JC Tredder if he was surprised to see so many top performing teams at the bottom
    0:19:59 of his list.
    0:20:00 No.
    0:20:01 And that’s the thing.
    0:20:05 Like having a star quarterback like Patrick Mahomes is the ultimate deodorant.
    0:20:10 Whether it’s telling around them or facilities or coaching, he’s going to make everybody
    0:20:13 look good because he is that freaking good as a quarterback.
    0:20:17 But that doesn’t mean the offerings shouldn’t be up to snuff.
    0:20:22 It shouldn’t be, hey, come here to play with Patrick Mahomes and potentially win a Super
    0:20:26 Bowl, but also the facilities are going to be old and dilapidated and you have to deal
    0:20:27 with that.
    0:20:28 That shouldn’t be the trade-off.
    0:20:29 Just pay for better facilities.
    0:20:34 If you’re making so much money, the idea of making it a choice of one or the other when
    0:20:37 you could just provide both doesn’t make much sense to me.
    0:20:40 What do the teams at the bottom have in common?
    0:20:44 Is it something as simple as they typically have older practice facilities?
    0:20:49 We asked the players, do they think their owner is willing to invest money to make the
    0:20:50 facilities better?
    0:20:55 And I think the teams at the bottom, that number tracked being down there.
    0:21:00 You don’t have to knock down walls, but are you willing to invest the money necessary
    0:21:04 to make the changes necessary to fix the issues you have?
    0:21:09 Like for Cincinnati, to rewire the locker room to make sure there’s outlets there is
    0:21:11 not that costly.
    0:21:17 For Washington, there was complaints that there’s poor drainage in the showers.
    0:21:24 So the guys are literally standing in the water that’s been run off from the guy next
    0:21:28 to him who’s showering the dirt and the blood and the sweat.
    0:21:31 These aren’t knock the walls down and build a new facility.
    0:21:35 Let’s get a plumber in there and fix it.
    0:21:40 The Washington commanders with their backed up showers ranked dead last in the NFL report
    0:21:41 card.
    0:21:43 But that wasn’t their biggest problem.
    0:21:48 The team was plagued with a variety of scandals concerning workplace harassment and financial
    0:21:49 impropriety.
    0:21:56 Finally, the wildly unpopular owner, Dan Snyder, gave in to pressure from the league and agreed
    0:21:57 to sell the team.
    0:22:02 This season, with new owners and a new head coach and general manager, the commanders
    0:22:06 had a remarkable turnaround, making the NFC championship game for the first time since
    0:22:08 1991.
    0:22:14 Washington’s problems during the Snyder era got a lot of press, but at most clubs, routine
    0:22:17 problems don’t get much coverage.
    0:22:18 And J.C.
    0:22:22 Tredder says that when players change teams, they often don’t have much information until
    0:22:25 they show up at their new workplace.
    0:22:29 And when they’re making these decisions about where they’re going to spend potentially the
    0:22:32 rest of their career, they should know what they’re getting into.
    0:22:38 I talked to a lot of guys as we did the survey and I said, “Hey, your team’s one of the worst
    0:22:39 graded teams.
    0:22:41 Did you know that before you signed?”
    0:22:42 And they’re like, “No.”
    0:22:44 And I got here and now I feel trapped.
    0:22:49 The quality of care is poor and the facilities are poor and I’m stuck here.
    0:22:53 So even if I’m making $8, $10, $15 million a year and the facilities are poor, it’s enough
    0:22:55 to have buyers remorse, you’re saying?
    0:22:56 Yeah.
    0:22:58 And again, most of our guys aren’t making that.
    0:23:00 So you start looking for differentiators.
    0:23:04 And those guys, the minimum seller guys are the lunch pail hard hat guys of your team,
    0:23:10 the special teams guys, the offensive linemen, the backups that make the team work.
    0:23:14 Those guys are looking at and saying, “Hold on, I’m going to get the same dollar amount
    0:23:15 from every team.”
    0:23:17 What are the other variables I can look at?
    0:23:21 And before it was, what do I think of the area, like the city, like how close it is to
    0:23:22 my family.
    0:23:26 And now it’s like, “Hold on, I’m not going to go to a team that has weight room floors
    0:23:28 peeling up and charges me for dinner.
    0:23:32 I’m going to go someplace else.”
    0:23:36 So is this NFL team report card working?
    0:23:42 Coming up, we’ll hear from an agent, an economist, and later the people who run the teams.
    0:23:43 I’m Stephen Dubner.
    0:23:47 I love making Freakonomics Radio and I love that you’re listening to him.
    0:23:48 We will be right back.
    0:24:04 Jim Eibler has worked for more than 25 years as an agent for NFL players, although he isn’t
    0:24:06 an agent technically.
    0:24:09 Technically we are called certified contract advisors.
    0:24:15 Eibler’s job, as the name implies, is to advise players on their contracts.
    0:24:20 For players coming into the NFL from college via the draft, remember they don’t choose
    0:24:26 where they’ll play and their salary is predetermined by how high they were picked in the draft.
    0:24:30 We’re also accustomed to the draft and that’s how talent is dispersed throughout the league.
    0:24:34 But when you think about it in more of a macro level, it’s a pretty incredible process.
    0:24:40 I mean, you’re told as a recent person coming out of college where you’re going to work.
    0:24:44 I know when I graduated law school, if someone had called me up and said, “You’ve just been
    0:24:48 drafted by a law firm in Green Bay, Wisconsin,” and that’s where you’re going to go, I would
    0:24:50 have said, “You want a bet?”
    0:24:55 But obviously these guys go, most of them very happily, to whatever team drafts them.
    0:25:00 The process though really is we’re trying to achieve generational wealth for our clients
    0:25:04 and I know it’s a buzzword and a cliche, but it’s really true.
    0:25:08 The goal needs to be that when the player is done playing in the NFL, whether they play
    0:25:12 four years or 14 years, that they can retire with enough money in the bank so they can
    0:25:16 do whatever it is they want to do with the rest of their life because it’s a passion,
    0:25:18 not because they need the paycheck.
    0:25:23 And so unless you’re a, I’m going to call it a top 20 or 25 pick, you’re really not getting
    0:25:26 that generational wealth from your first contract.
    0:25:30 So we’re really all in this game to help our clients achieve a second contract and if they’re
    0:25:33 really blessed, maybe a third and a fourth contract.
    0:25:36 If you can get that bite at the apple where you’ve performed well enough, where there’s
    0:25:40 multiple teams interested in you, that’s where the leverage maybe flips and it’s on
    0:25:42 the player’s side.
    0:25:46 It doesn’t happen to a lot of guys and I’m sure you’ve heard the average career span
    0:25:49 of an NFL player is 3.3 years.
    0:25:53 And it’s probably not a total coincidence that that’s just before the unrestricted free
    0:25:54 agency kicks in.
    0:25:55 Do the math.
    0:25:59 If you can’t become unrestricted until four years and the average player is 3.3 years,
    0:26:01 that means the average player is never getting that bite at the apple.
    0:26:06 Okay, let’s say you represent a player who has just become a free agent and you do your
    0:26:10 thing and you get offers from three teams.
    0:26:15 What are the primary factors that will go into the decision of where your client will
    0:26:22 want to go and I especially want to know if workplace conditions are at all a major factor.
    0:26:26 Certainly compensation, anybody that says that’s not number one is probably lying.
    0:26:31 Even if the player has made that sort of money over the course of his career to achieve that
    0:26:36 generational wealth, the compensation is still going to be the primary factor.
    0:26:41 And then the team itself, the talent that the player is surrounded with, teammate-wise,
    0:26:45 the coaching staff, whether or not the team has anticipated to be a playoff, Super Bowl
    0:26:49 team, these are all things that I would say are a little bit more important to players
    0:26:51 than the workplace conditions.
    0:26:54 But something that players are talking about, but I wouldn’t put it in the top few factors
    0:26:57 of making free agent decisions.
    0:27:02 Another thing you need to realize about unrestricted free agency, this happens really fast.
    0:27:06 In terms of player has to make a life-altering decision in five minutes because if the player
    0:27:10 is not ready to commit, that team is going to go on to the next guy on their list at
    0:27:11 that position.
    0:27:15 And when you have to make those quick decisions, the size of the locker room is really not
    0:27:16 coming up.
    0:27:20 One of the factors that a player and agent will absolutely consider is whether or not
    0:27:24 there’s a state tax that’s levied against the player with the team that he is signing
    0:27:29 with and eight of the 32 NFL teams play in states where there is no state tax and that
    0:27:34 could be a pretty big difference monetarily if you’re talking about 0% taken out as opposed
    0:27:38 to 8, 9, 10, 11% in some of the higher states.
    0:27:43 List for me the no-tax places, I guess it’s all the teams in Texas and Florida.
    0:27:47 The two teams in Texas, it’s the three teams in Florida, it’s Vegas, it’s Seattle and
    0:27:49 it’s Tennessee.
    0:27:55 So it sounds like you put a lot less stock into the impact of the survey than someone
    0:27:56 like J.C.
    0:28:01 So I’m trying to get a read on how much this survey really matters in the end.
    0:28:02 What do you think?
    0:28:08 I think it was a great idea for him to commission this survey and get responses from players.
    0:28:11 He should be holding teams feet to the fire because I can guarantee you there are some
    0:28:16 owners that are upset from what I’ve read Arthur Blank down in Atlanta was disappointed
    0:28:21 that his team ranked where it did and these guys are competitive regardless of whether
    0:28:23 or not it’s really having an impact in free agent decisions.
    0:28:28 It doesn’t mean that the survey is not going to affect change in a lot of these facilities
    0:28:32 with these team owners because if they perceive that it could be a problem in free agency,
    0:28:34 that’s really the most important thing.
    0:28:40 So the Washington commanders got an F or lower, they actually got an F minus in a few categories
    0:28:47 in 1, 2, 3, 4 of the categories and then a couple of D’s, C and an A plus in strength
    0:28:52 coaches so the players loved the strength coaches but in terms of the things the team
    0:29:00 does otherwise, locker room, F minus, team travel, F minus, treatment of families, F.
    0:29:05 Can you talk about why those things matter so much to a player that they’re going to
    0:29:07 give their own team an F minus?
    0:29:12 For sure and I’ve never really heard of an F minus before.
    0:29:16 But it is important and certainly I think as a player ages throughout his career it
    0:29:21 becomes more important because presumably they have a wife, they have children and how
    0:29:24 the family is treated on game day for instance is a big deal.
    0:29:29 I remember about 15 years ago speaking to the front office of the Jets and they were
    0:29:33 asking well what could we do better and we brought up the concept of a family room on
    0:29:37 game day and they didn’t even understand what we were saying and we said hey listen you
    0:29:42 have players whose wives are coming with little kids and they’re sitting in the stands and
    0:29:45 the beer is flowing and there’s things that are said.
    0:29:51 The concept of having a daycare in an NFL stadium not too long ago was unheard of.
    0:29:54 Now I think it’s close to half maybe half them.
    0:30:00 Same thing with a family room where the players, families can go and shelter from bad weather,
    0:30:02 shelter from crazed fans.
    0:30:09 Are you surprised that so many, I mean these are billion dollar franchises and they could
    0:30:14 pretty easily fix some of these problems if they cared with a little bit of money.
    0:30:18 Like the family room is going to cost some money plainly but not a ton.
    0:30:22 Are you surprised that there’s this sort of penny-wise, pound foolish approach?
    0:30:24 Yes, I’m surprised.
    0:30:27 These are multi-billion dollar organizations.
    0:30:32 Their most important asset of course is the talent that they’re putting out on the field.
    0:30:38 So to read some of the things in the survey, uneven floors in the weight room where players
    0:30:43 feel afraid walking around, slippery floors in the pool area where players are falling
    0:30:48 when you invest so much in your assets to have a workplace injury potentially happen,
    0:30:51 it would not be a good look and it is very surprising.
    0:30:57 But on the other hand, some of these teams are run by old school owners.
    0:31:01 You look at some of the teams that are low on the list, I don’t think it’s an accident
    0:31:05 that the owners made their money from the team.
    0:31:07 They didn’t come from a different industry.
    0:31:11 They came from where their grandfathers paid $500 and a bottle of whiskey for the team
    0:31:19 back in 1942 and they are kind of mired in old school ways or maybe a little bit slow
    0:31:24 to come around and no matter how much the front office wants to be progressive and implore
    0:31:33 them to change certain things, it still starts at the top and the owner has final say.
    0:31:39 One problem for family-run firms is it can be hard to innovate.
    0:31:42 How do you think outside the box when you’ve never left the box?
    0:31:44 That is Betsy Stevenson.
    0:31:52 I am an economist and professor at the University of Michigan and I study labor markets.
    0:31:53 Are you a football fan, Betsy?
    0:31:57 I teach at the University of Michigan so I have to just plead the fifth and refuse to
    0:31:59 answer this question.
    0:32:01 So that’s a big fat no plainly.
    0:32:03 Yeah, it’s really awkward.
    0:32:07 Stevenson may not know football, but she does know labor economics.
    0:32:14 I served as the chief economist at the Department of Labor and I served as a member of the Council
    0:32:19 of Economic Advisers giving advice to President Obama.
    0:32:24 Can I have an example of some labor economics advice you may have given?
    0:32:29 One big thing we talked a lot about was whether we should require forms of compensation outside
    0:32:30 of wages.
    0:32:34 Like should people be required to get paid sick days?
    0:32:40 Should we require that people get paid maternity or paternity leave?
    0:32:45 What makes a good job and what’s the role of government in shaping the conditions?
    0:32:47 So what makes a good job?
    0:32:48 That’s an easy answer, yeah?
    0:32:56 Yeah, it’s hard because we all have different preferences and I think the hope of economists
    0:33:01 who believe in market forces is everybody wants different things and they’ll just be
    0:33:09 able to sort around the labor market till they find the thing that works for them.
    0:33:14 So when a company does provide what economists like Stevenson call compensation outside of
    0:33:18 wages, why do they provide that?
    0:33:21 Economists have come up with two buckets of reasons.
    0:33:25 So the first bucket is the benefits might be a compliment to hard work.
    0:33:30 We actually see higher productivity because it induces more effort from workers.
    0:33:36 The second bucket is that employees might value the benefits more than it costs the
    0:33:39 employer to provide those benefits.
    0:33:43 So let’s start with the first bucket, compliment to hard work.
    0:33:49 That’s why every company going back to the 50s that has office workers has coffee in
    0:33:51 the break room, right?
    0:33:54 You got to caffeinate your workers to get them to work hard.
    0:34:00 The tech sector went a little crazy with this like, “Hey, let’s have ping-pong tables.”
    0:34:04 But it really was the same idea, “Well, if you’re socializing at work, you’ll have less
    0:34:06 of a reason to leave.”
    0:34:10 One of the more extreme examples was some of the tech companies started providing a benefit
    0:34:13 which is, “We will pay for you to freeze your eggs.”
    0:34:19 Oh no, we have these hard-working female employees wringing their hands in their early 30s thinking
    0:34:20 they better have a baby.
    0:34:23 I know what we’ll do, we’ll pay to freeze their eggs and then they’ll be able to keep
    0:34:25 working hard for a few more years.
    0:34:29 Betsy, I know you took a look at the NFL Players Survey.
    0:34:34 How do you think about their non-wage compensation in terms of this first bucket?
    0:34:38 Yeah, it’s great because you can actually see the categories here which are clearly
    0:34:40 a compliment to high productivity.
    0:34:41 Nutrition.
    0:34:46 They’re like, “What you eat is going to affect how you play, so we’re going to feed you.”
    0:34:50 The weight room, how you train up is going to affect how you play.
    0:34:52 We’re going to give you a weight room.
    0:34:57 This is really about, “Are we giving you the inputs you need to be as productive as possible?”
    0:35:01 When we think about things like the treatment of families.
    0:35:03 That’s bucket two, I assume.
    0:35:07 Yeah, this is something that’s going to have a cost to them, but the question is what’s
    0:35:17 the value to the person receiving it, and that value might be quite high.
    0:35:24 My wife, my mom, my sister, my dad, they didn’t come to games to tailgate and booze it up and
    0:35:26 cheer for the Cleveland Browns.
    0:35:30 They came to the game to make sure I walked off the field at the end.
    0:35:35 That again is JC Tredder, former president of the NFL Players Union.
    0:35:37 I understand the guys on the field are making a lot of money.
    0:35:40 Even the guys making minimum salary are making a lot of money.
    0:35:45 The risk they are taking, though, is substantial, and the damage they are receiving is substantial,
    0:35:53 and parents and kids and wives and siblings are there worried about their well-being.
    0:35:59 The idea that the guys out there making the owner hundreds of millions to billions of
    0:36:04 dollars for what they’re doing on the field, well taking all of the risk physically, the
    0:36:09 idea that their wife and newborn baby are sitting on the grimy floor of a public restroom
    0:36:12 breastfeeding is just preposterous to me.
    0:36:16 18 of the teams offer family rooms, 14 don’t, and the teams that don’t, like, where is
    0:36:18 that wife supposed to go?
    0:36:20 What’s your prediction for, let’s say, two years from now?
    0:36:22 How many of those 14 will offer it?
    0:36:25 We’ve heard from some teams being like, “Hey, you know, we have an older stadium.
    0:36:26 There’s no room for it.”
    0:36:30 But everybody has suites, you know, like, in the end, it comes down to a choice.
    0:36:34 So how many games did your family attend when you were playing for Cleveland?
    0:36:40 Yeah, they would be at almost every home game, and in the end, once I got my third contract,
    0:36:44 me and two other teammates went in on a suite, like, we bought our own suite.
    0:36:49 We all had young kids from two and under, and we didn’t want them out in the cold.
    0:36:52 So we said, like, “We’ll pay the money and buy a suite.”
    0:36:54 How much did you have to pay?
    0:36:55 $150,000.
    0:36:56 Okay.
    0:37:00 Split by three players with, let’s call it, eight home games a season.
    0:37:04 So a little over $6,000 a game, you’re paying out of pocket.
    0:37:06 I’ll trust your math.
    0:37:10 Looks like a lot of teams are doing a really bad job.
    0:37:13 I mean, I saw a lot of Fs.
    0:37:16 That, again, is the economist Betsy Stevenson.
    0:37:21 Like, maybe they’re not getting the great inflation that our university students get
    0:37:24 these days, but a lot of Fs.
    0:37:30 And I think what that says is this is a job where there’s a lot of cash thrown at these
    0:37:33 players and they don’t think about anything else.
    0:37:38 Betsy, are you surprised that firms that are paying their key employees a relatively
    0:37:44 very high salary, that at least some of them on some dimensions are apparently so cheap
    0:37:47 when it comes to perks and benefits?
    0:37:55 I am surprised that any team is messing up when it comes to perks and benefits that would
    0:37:58 actually increase the productivity of the players.
    0:38:06 I think that’s a clear mistake because those perks and benefits are probably quite cheap
    0:38:12 compared to not just pay, but compared to the benefits they yield on the playing field.
    0:38:15 Like one more victory would be worth quite a bit of money.
    0:38:16 One more victory is worth a lot of money, right?
    0:38:21 You could probably do a full renovation of your weight room.
    0:38:25 Do you think the issue here is that they’re not connecting it necessarily or not believing
    0:38:29 the connection to productivity because otherwise it’s hard for me to understand why they would
    0:38:31 cheap out?
    0:38:38 I’m pausing only because sometimes people do stupid things, Stephen.
    0:38:44 So I think that’s one answer is they’re just being dumb.
    0:38:51 Now another answer is what’s necessary in the weight room or the training room or nutrition
    0:38:57 in order to get the best out of your players on the field is being given, but players are
    0:39:04 looking for little aspects of that that don’t actually have any impact on their productivity.
    0:39:08 Maybe they want a brighter, sunnier room.
    0:39:10 It can be hard to measure these things.
    0:39:14 Maybe if you had the brighter, sunnier room, they’d work harder in training and if they
    0:39:16 worked harder in training, they’d do better on the playing field.
    0:39:21 So you should figure out how to make it brighter or sunnier.
    0:39:26 I painted little poppies on the wall in my gym and I swear I pellet on faster because
    0:39:28 I love my field of poppies.
    0:39:32 Can I just say if this economist thing doesn’t work out for you, maybe NFL training room
    0:39:35 decorator would be a lovely second career.
    0:39:41 That would be fun, yeah.
    0:39:46 Are NFL team owners and bosses really just doing stupid things?
    0:39:48 We’ll find out after the break.
    0:39:53 If you like this episode of Freakonomics Radio, there are three things you can do.
    0:39:56 Number one, listen every week.
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    0:39:58 You should be too.
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    0:40:12 We’ll be right back.
    0:40:29 So according to a recent survey conducted by the NFL Players Union, many pro football
    0:40:32 teams are not such great places to work.
    0:40:38 We reached out to all 32 teams asking for an interview with their owner or president.
    0:40:44 The line never responded, 21 declined with one communications director asking why we
    0:40:49 thought he would ever let us speak with his boss about this topic.
    0:40:52 In the end, two teams did agree to speak.
    0:40:57 Not surprisingly, they were the top two teams in the player survey.
    0:41:01 This is Mark Wilf, owner, president of the Minnesota Vikings.
    0:41:06 So Mark, congratulations on acing the NFL PA’s reporter card.
    0:41:09 I’m just curious how much did that matter to you?
    0:41:11 Well, it matters a lot.
    0:41:17 I mean, from day one of our ownership, 2005, it’s our highest goal to make our organization
    0:41:20 a world-class organization.
    0:41:24 And of course, that’s winning Super Bowls, which is paramount, but facilities, staff
    0:41:26 and community involvement as well.
    0:41:29 So here’s a choice for you, Mark.
    0:41:35 You can keep an A grade, the number one ranking on this report card for, let’s say, 10 years,
    0:41:37 not win a Super Bowl.
    0:41:38 Would that be worth it?
    0:41:40 I mean, maybe winning isn’t everything.
    0:41:44 Maybe treating people well is, in the long run, more important.
    0:41:49 Well, I strongly believe that culture in a building is critical, and I think it’s critical
    0:41:51 to building championships.
    0:41:55 So I want to be greedy and say we want both.
    0:41:56 Okay.
    0:42:00 And let’s hear from the team that came in second.
    0:42:06 Tom Garfinkel, vice chairman, CEO and president, Miami Dolphins and Hard Rock Stadium.
    0:42:11 Garfinkel is the top lieutenant to Stephen Ross, the real estate developer who is majority
    0:42:13 owner of the Dolphins.
    0:42:17 Steve is very focused on being best in class and being willing to invest in being best
    0:42:18 in class.
    0:42:22 So congratulations on doing so well on this NFL team report card.
    0:42:26 What was your first response when you saw your grades?
    0:42:29 Well, my first reaction was, I don’t like being second.
    0:42:30 So we’re going to fix the family area.
    0:42:36 I could promise you that we will have the best family area in football next year.
    0:42:42 The Dolphins got an A or A plus in every one of the eight categories except for the treatment
    0:42:43 of families.
    0:42:47 That grade was a C plus with some players saying they didn’t get enough passes to the
    0:42:49 post game area.
    0:42:52 But otherwise, great reviews.
    0:42:59 Not coincidentally, the Dolphins recently opened a new $135 million practice facility.
    0:43:05 Long before they broke ground, Garfinkel says he and Ross toured a bunch of other football
    0:43:11 facilities, including college facilities, which tend to be extra deluxe since colleges
    0:43:14 can’t use actual money to recruit players.
    0:43:19 One of the things that really struck us was at Clemson University, the locker room was
    0:43:22 really at the center of the facility.
    0:43:26 From a layout standpoint, we really thought that’s the right idea.
    0:43:28 We want this to be player-centric.
    0:43:31 We want the players to be at the heart of everything we do here.
    0:43:35 So to put the locker room at the center of the activity was really paramount.
    0:43:40 Then designing around that literally sat down with the architect with a pen and pencil and
    0:43:45 drew out where the different functions would be adjacent to the locker room for players
    0:43:50 so that they could easily and quickly get to all the different areas that they needed
    0:43:51 to.
    0:43:54 So during the course of the day, players are going from where to where to where.
    0:43:56 So it could be the meal room, the cafeteria.
    0:43:59 It could be the team meeting rooms, which are where they spend a lot of time.
    0:44:04 There’s everything from the sauna and steam room to the cold and the hot plunge and the
    0:44:05 underwater treadmill.
    0:44:08 And then the training rooms next to that where the doctors and the therapists are.
    0:44:11 And then next to that is the weight room.
    0:44:12 Is the locker room kind of where you come in?
    0:44:14 You drop your stuff.
    0:44:18 You get ready to do your day and then are you cycling back through the locker room during
    0:44:21 the day because in part that’s where your stuff is?
    0:44:22 Yes.
    0:44:24 I think the locker room is really home base for them.
    0:44:26 There’s an area for them to charge their phone.
    0:44:28 There’s a comfortable seat.
    0:44:31 It’s not a locker, you know, talking to Dan Marino and those guys.
    0:44:32 They literally had a nail.
    0:44:34 They used to hang their helmet on.
    0:44:37 These are very bespoke custom environments.
    0:44:43 We try to design the environment to be almost more four seasons like without the mahogany.
    0:44:46 I think you’ll find that the dolphin’s logos are subtle.
    0:44:50 The only aqua you see in the locker room is the name plate above the locker.
    0:44:53 Is that a test admission that people get sick of aqua?
    0:44:54 Because I would make that argument.
    0:44:59 I think you might get sick of whatever the color is if it’s all you see everywhere, right?
    0:45:07 So we did a rough analysis with the NFLPA report card, the grades versus win/loss records,
    0:45:08 basically.
    0:45:10 And it turns out there’s very little correlation.
    0:45:12 In fact, it might be a little bit negative.
    0:45:18 A lot of teams that do really well on the report card have not had great seasons lately.
    0:45:20 I haven’t won a Super Bowl in a long time.
    0:45:25 Dolphins haven’t won a Super Bowl in a long time, whereas a lot of the teams who’ve won
    0:45:28 Super Bowls lately rank really low.
    0:45:29 That surprised me.
    0:45:32 I’m curious what you make of that back of the envelope correlation.
    0:45:36 Well, I would say is that causation or correlation?
    0:45:38 This is the first year that survey has been conducted.
    0:45:42 To my knowledge, if you’re winning over a long period of time, maybe you don’t feel
    0:45:46 the need to put the resources in, and if you’re not winning, you feel the need to create some
    0:45:47 competitive advantage.
    0:45:51 So I’m not sure maybe over 10 years or something that’ll play itself out.
    0:45:54 I’m not sure it’s relevant in the short term.
    0:45:58 For a lot of reasons, including especially the pandemic, there’s been a realignment of
    0:46:02 the relationship between firms and their employees.
    0:46:04 The pendulum kind of swings.
    0:46:07 It’ll go really strong one side, then it’ll come back.
    0:46:13 I’m just curious what the last several years, including the pandemic, has taught you about
    0:46:17 what it means to be an employer in the modern era.
    0:46:20 Well, I certainly think employees are more empowered than in the past.
    0:46:23 Their voice matters more.
    0:46:24 It’s really about listening.
    0:46:30 There’s a tradition in football where a lot of things in the NFL are done the same way
    0:46:35 across teams in terms of how schedules are set, how coaching is applied, how scouting
    0:46:36 processes work.
    0:46:40 And one of the things I love about Mike, even in the interview process, was he really has
    0:46:41 an innovative mind.
    0:46:44 He really wants to do things differently.
    0:46:47 Garfinkel is talking about Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins’ head coach.
    0:46:52 And one of those things is that players are really different today than they were even
    0:46:54 five years ago.
    0:46:56 They want to understand the why of things.
    0:47:00 And instead of just saying, shut up and get in line and do what I tell you to do, Mike
    0:47:04 will sit down with a player and say, well, listen, wide receiver, here’s why I need you
    0:47:06 to block corners and safeties in the run game.
    0:47:08 Well, I get paid to catch touchdowns.
    0:47:09 Okay.
    0:47:12 So then I’ll show them the film and say, okay, here’s a three yard run and where the wide
    0:47:14 receiver didn’t block the corner of safety.
    0:47:19 Here’s the wide receiver blocking the corner of safety and here’s a 35 yard explosive run.
    0:47:21 But watch what happens in the next play.
    0:47:23 Now the defense moves up into the box.
    0:47:25 Now you can run past them and score a touchdown.
    0:47:27 So you see how it’s good for you.
    0:47:30 So he explains it to them and they’re like, oh, okay, coach, you know, I was down in the
    0:47:36 weight room today and the energy, the positive energy, the camaraderie, the excitement is
    0:47:38 palpable.
    0:47:43 I was at the Miami Dolphins training facilities last year and it’s pretty state of the art.
    0:47:44 That is Jason Kelsey.
    0:47:49 When we spoke with him in 2023, Kelsey was a longtime member of the Philadelphia Eagles.
    0:47:53 He played center, the anchor of the offensive line, and he was considered one of the best
    0:47:56 players that position in years.
    0:48:00 In March of last year, Kelsey announced his retirement.
    0:48:04 He’s also the brother of Travis Kelsey, who plays tight end for the Kansas City Chiefs
    0:48:09 and who may wind up being the best player at his position in history.
    0:48:14 The brothers played against each other in the 2023 Super Bowl, the Kelsey Bowl, some people
    0:48:15 called it.
    0:48:17 Travis’s Chiefs won.
    0:48:21 Since we spoke with Jason Kelsey for this episode, the brother’s public profile has
    0:48:22 only increased.
    0:48:28 They signed a huge podcast deal, they appear in what seems to be pretty much every commercial
    0:48:35 you see on TV, and Travis continued his very public romance with Taylor Swift.
    0:48:41 And the Chiefs won another Super Bowl and are going for their third in a row this week.
    0:48:44 Once again, they’re playing the Eagles.
    0:48:48 Back then, I asked Jason about his Super Bowl experiences.
    0:48:53 He was a key part of the Eagles team that won Super Bowl 52 in 2018, and then there
    0:48:57 was his second one against the Chiefs a few years later.
    0:49:02 The intensity and emotions of it are very, very high, but obviously, this being my second
    0:49:04 one, I had some familiarity with it.
    0:49:06 The game is the exact same.
    0:49:12 The emotion and intensity and all of that is going to enhance what’s happening in your
    0:49:13 head.
    0:49:16 For better or worse, or it could be either.
    0:49:18 It can be both.
    0:49:25 I think it’s worse when you try to do things outside of either your job or the things that
    0:49:27 you’ve done to get there.
    0:49:32 Chris Long, who had won a Super Bowl in New England right before we played in Super Bowl
    0:49:38 52 with the Eagles, his biggest advice was don’t let the moment dictate things to you.
    0:49:42 Do everything that got us here, and when the play is there, you’ll be ready to make the
    0:49:43 play.
    0:49:46 Did you feel you were able to do that in this past year, Super Bowl?
    0:49:48 For the most part, I mean, you always have plays you want back.
    0:49:51 You’re never going to go out there and play a perfect game.
    0:49:56 And unfortunately, I’ve found when you lose, you definitely remember the plays that you
    0:49:57 could have had back.
    0:50:01 Did losing a Super Bowl add to your wanting to come back or subtract to wanting to come
    0:50:02 back?
    0:50:05 Unequivocally added to it, and I don’t think it should have.
    0:50:09 It’s so hard to get there, and there’s so many things that need to happen right after
    0:50:15 the game I wanted to play another season, and I had to really step away and figure out,
    0:50:16 is this the right thing?
    0:50:17 Is this the right thing for your body?
    0:50:19 Is this the right thing for the family?
    0:50:20 And can you do it?
    0:50:26 My biggest thing is, I want to do it the way it needs to be done, being who you are in
    0:50:31 the meeting room on the field around your teammates, investing in that, as well as practicing
    0:50:36 hard, as well as lifting weights.
    0:50:42 On the 2023 team report card, Jason Kelsey’s Eagles came out middle of the pack, 14th out
    0:50:48 of 32 teams, with A’s for food and the weight room, but a C minus for the training room and
    0:50:50 a D for travel.
    0:50:54 I asked Kelsey if those grades reflected his own views.
    0:50:55 I thought it was spot on.
    0:51:03 I’d be curious to see what the standard deviation on each one of these was, because when I saw
    0:51:05 the results, it was almost to the T.
    0:51:07 You felt like you were looking at your answers.
    0:51:11 Yeah, but I know that a lot of guys filled it out.
    0:51:14 So for the Eagles, I’m looking at your report card.
    0:51:24 Both coaches A plus, training staff A plus, but training room C minus, locker room C plus.
    0:51:26 Explain why there’s such a split there.
    0:51:32 I think that both of those rooms are led really well.
    0:51:34 They do forward innovative things.
    0:51:37 They’re open to discussing things with the players.
    0:51:40 Give me an example if you don’t mind of the forward innovative things.
    0:51:46 So there’s a whole discrepancy right now in the NFL of do you practice on Wednesdays or
    0:51:49 how many hard days in a row?
    0:51:55 The strength staff is very involved with the training staff at one, trying to help players
    0:51:59 get better, but also to mitigate injuries.
    0:52:06 Training camp used to be two days, hard every single day, three hour practices.
    0:52:07 Pads and helmets.
    0:52:08 That’s right.
    0:52:16 And now it is much more of a tiered system where one day is a yellow day and that goes
    0:52:20 into one, the intensity practice, but also the length at which you’re out there.
    0:52:22 Green is a, we’re getting geared up.
    0:52:28 This is going to be a barn burner, but it’s done in a calculated way that the coaches understand,
    0:52:34 that the players understand, and that is done in scientifically the optimal way for
    0:52:39 a player to one, stay healthy, but also improve.
    0:52:47 Those changes were the result, I assume, almost entirely of NFLPA, the player’s union requests
    0:52:50 and negotiations over the years, not from the teams, but tell me if I’m wrong there.
    0:52:52 I would say you’re wrong.
    0:52:57 The two days for sure was a big negotiating factor by the PA before I got into the league,
    0:53:01 but there is a very large gray area in terms of how long practices are.
    0:53:06 They can’t be over a certain amount of time on the field, but we are, quite frankly, way
    0:53:09 underneath that threshold.
    0:53:16 But I think I would be very much remiss if I didn’t give credit to the Eagles organization,
    0:53:24 our strength staff and our training staff at going beyond what the collective NFL mindset
    0:53:25 is on that.
    0:53:30 Your team got an A in food service and nutrition.
    0:53:34 Let me tell you, it’s so good, Steven.
    0:53:35 Why have you not invited me for lunch yet?
    0:53:36 Come on over.
    0:53:37 All right.
    0:53:43 The Eagles, to their credit, have taken that feedback from players since I’ve been there.
    0:53:48 It is remarkable how much the cafeteria has changed for the better, and one, the quality
    0:53:53 of food that’s there, and two, the wide range of what you can get.
    0:53:58 During the season, are there days where you eat three meals a day at the facility or no?
    0:53:59 Yes.
    0:54:02 On Wednesdays and Thursdays, I eat breakfast, lunch, and dinner there.
    0:54:03 Okay.
    0:54:04 So, walk me through those meals.
    0:54:07 I’m not asking you to name everything you eat, but give me a typical breakfast, typical
    0:54:09 lunch, typical dinner.
    0:54:17 My breakfast is usually the, if not the exact same, one item different off, and it used
    0:54:18 to be Chef Tim.
    0:54:19 Shout out to Chef Tim.
    0:54:25 He’s no longer with the Eagles, but I usually go in, I get three eggs over easy with three
    0:54:30 sausage links and breakfast potatoes, and then I go get a bagel with cream cheese on
    0:54:34 it and honey, and then a cup of blueberries.
    0:54:35 Lunch, so we have a few stations.
    0:54:40 We have a station right when you come in, which is really for your clean eating, right?
    0:54:49 It’s going to be some type of rice or grain, maybe a noodle, and some veggies that have
    0:54:50 been cooked.
    0:54:57 And then to the left of that, there’s going to be a pretty clean, low-fat added type of
    0:54:58 meat, right?
    0:55:04 And then the more you go left, you’ll get a little bit of fried stuff, right?
    0:55:09 So if you’re in the mood for some french fries or like a sausage, sandwich, hoagie, and then
    0:55:15 if you go even left of that, this is probably my favorite station, they’ve gone to a like
    0:55:17 regional dish.
    0:55:21 A lot of times in season, it’s based on a player’s favorite food or where they’re from.
    0:55:23 Give me a for instance.
    0:55:30 Well for me, I went to Thailand one year, so I had them do Penang Curry with non-bread,
    0:55:33 just absolutely one of my favorite dishes.
    0:55:38 Another day, it might be, I think it was either Fletcher Cox or Brandon Graham was smothered
    0:55:39 pork chops.
    0:55:40 Okay.
    0:55:44 So I can see why that gets an A. The D grade that Eagles got for team travel, would you
    0:55:47 agree with that assessment?
    0:55:51 That might have been lower than what I ranked it, but I did not rank it high.
    0:55:52 If I was any higher, it was a C.
    0:55:56 I’m reading here, it says only half of the players feel they have enough room to spread
    0:55:57 out.
    0:55:58 I guess that’s on the plane.
    0:56:03 You don’t have roommates in a hotel at least, which some teams do, but you’re one of only
    0:56:06 seven teams that don’t offer first class seats to their players.
    0:56:09 And I did not know that before this study.
    0:56:12 When Chip Kelly was the head coach, he did allow, obviously everybody can sit in first
    0:56:18 class, but he did allow starters and players who are extremely large to sit in the first
    0:56:20 class seats instead of the coaches.
    0:56:21 It’s a nice perk.
    0:56:24 Anybody who sat first class knows that those seats are pretty nice.
    0:56:31 We have a player, Jordan Malata, who’s north of six, six and 400 pounds almost.
    0:56:36 He’s going to struggle to fit any situation in the back of the plane.
    0:56:42 I will say there was one point we were coming back on a short flight and they didn’t turn
    0:56:45 the TVs on on the back of the seats.
    0:56:48 And I remember just flipping out, we’re a billion dollar organization and we can’t
    0:56:50 even get free movies on these flights.
    0:56:52 Like, what’s going on here, guys?
    0:56:53 Who’d you say that to?
    0:56:59 I said that to one of the stewardesses and then one of the guys that runs everything for
    0:57:03 logistics with the team kind of came back and he’s a guy we’re going to turn the TVs
    0:57:04 on Jason.
    0:57:10 So now what about being charged for food in Arizona, let’s say, did that surprise you?
    0:57:11 It didn’t.
    0:57:15 I was in Philly my first few years in the off season, at least, you know, we went to
    0:57:21 Arizona and we used the Arizona Cardinals facilities and I can say first hand, they are not investing
    0:57:22 in this place.
    0:57:27 The weight room had, I’m not kidding you, the mats of the weight room were like, I don’t
    0:57:31 know if they had water moisture that was getting in there, but the rubber mat that was on top
    0:57:36 of the concrete floor was like peeling up on the corners of it.
    0:57:38 You’re like walking on an uneven surface the whole time.
    0:57:40 I was like, how are people not just getting hurt in here?
    0:57:43 It was eye-openingly bad, in my opinion.
    0:57:46 What about the rats in Jacksonville, did that surprise you?
    0:57:47 Not one bit.
    0:57:48 I mean, come on, man.
    0:57:54 I’ve gotten trouble for talking trash on Jacksonville one time so I got to calm it down, but yeah,
    0:57:55 that’s stadium.
    0:57:58 I have not been too much and I’m very thankful of that.
    0:58:01 Do you think this report card will lead to any change?
    0:58:02 I do.
    0:58:04 It’s already led to change.
    0:58:09 They installed a much larger cold pool in the actual training room.
    0:58:14 We used to have two above ground pools out back, which I always, you know, we’re a billion-dollar
    0:58:16 organization with above ground pools.
    0:58:19 I think we can maybe do better than this.
    0:58:21 Above ground outdoors, like in the winter?
    0:58:25 So they would have to shut them down in the winter and that was a big issue with it.
    0:58:26 So they’ve already made corrections on that.
    0:58:30 I believe they’re addressing some of the family issues at games.
    0:58:37 The weight room is adding another tier that’s going to add more footprint for more bikes
    0:58:40 and other workout equipment.
    0:58:43 I do think teams are going to respond to it just like players are competitive.
    0:58:48 I think owners are competitive and I think that owners are certainly a good portion of
    0:58:53 owners are not going to like seeing their organization viewed in a negative light and
    0:58:57 I think that they’re going to try and correct these things.
    0:59:05 What can the rest of us learn from this process of a union representing the workers goes in,
    0:59:12 asks everybody a lot of questions, and then produces a report and it lands and now we’re
    0:59:14 going to see what happens.
    0:59:15 What should we be learning from this?
    0:59:19 What would you say to a CEO who might be listening to this and saying, “Holy cow, yeah, like
    0:59:21 this is low hanging fruit.
    0:59:26 I fixed the mats in the weight room and I don’t have Jason Kelsey trashing me.”
    0:59:27 That’s right.
    0:59:32 I think unequivocally that more unions should be doing this.
    0:59:37 It’s different when one person comes to you with an anecdote or a one-off as opposed to
    0:59:43 a literal survey of your entire workforce saying, “This is what we think of the place
    0:59:45 that you have us operate in.”
    0:59:53 For CEOs and owners, I think that seeing it this way gives you a much more realistic idea
    0:59:56 of what your workplace environment is.
    1:00:03 I would want this information and as a worker, I would want my boss to know this, but to
    1:00:07 also not be punished if I tell him to his face.
    1:00:09 I’m a big fan of this survey.
    1:00:14 I think that it will lead to a lot of change in some of these NFL organizations, especially
    1:00:17 if it’s done on an annual basis.
    1:00:24 I see no reason why other fields or places of business would not follow suit and try
    1:00:26 to make changes as well.
    1:00:32 What he wants to be known as the cheapskate, I think that as before, when it was rumored
    1:00:43 you were the cheapskate, it was harder to prove now there’s data.
    1:00:49 We want to live in a world where we’re giving out 32A pluses for all the teams.
    1:00:51 That again is JC Treader.
    1:00:56 When we went into this year one, I told the staff when we started it, “If all
    1:01:01 that comes from this is four teams start giving dinner to those players, it’s a win.”
    1:01:06 Now, I’m curious to know what you’ve heard from teams about the survey.
    1:01:08 Have you heard anything directly from the teams?
    1:01:13 Yeah, we’ve heard from about 12 to 15 teams who have reached out to us just to say, “What
    1:01:14 can we do better?
    1:01:15 Can you give us more information?
    1:01:17 What changes would make us better?”
    1:01:21 I give credit to Arthur Blank who’s the owner for the Atlanta Falcons.
    1:01:25 There was an article written where he said he pulled his president and GM and head coach
    1:01:31 aside and told them, “One, if this comes out again, they absolutely cannot be graded as
    1:01:33 low as they were before.
    1:01:37 Also that they need to start being more proactive and it shouldn’t take this type of thing to
    1:01:38 create the change.
    1:01:42 They should be, as leaders of the organization, be looking around corners and realizing where
    1:01:44 they’re weak and where they need to improve.”
    1:01:47 I don’t know Arthur well from people who do.
    1:01:52 It seems like it’s not just lip service and that he’s going to act on those words.
    1:01:57 After the report cards were released, the Falcons announced a $30 million upgrade to
    1:01:59 their locker room, weight room, and cafeteria.
    1:02:03 Although they also said the renovations had already been planned and they were not done
    1:02:09 in response to the report card where they came in 23rd out of 32 teams.
    1:02:10 Those are the things you want to see.
    1:02:12 Don’t get defensive about this.
    1:02:13 That’s not what we’re hoping for.
    1:02:18 We’re hoping that people see like, “Okay, this team is providing this, this, and this.
    1:02:19 Maybe we should provide that too.”
    1:02:23 Because in the end, as adversarial, sometimes we are, the teams need the players and the
    1:02:25 players need the franchises.
    1:02:27 Do you plan to do the survey every year?
    1:02:28 Yes.
    1:02:32 And year two is going to be more important than year one because year one, owners could
    1:02:33 claim ignorance.
    1:02:36 I think more will claim ignorance than should claim ignorance.
    1:02:38 For some of it, I’m sure they didn’t know.
    1:02:41 I don’t think many owners are hanging out in the hot tubs with the guys.
    1:02:44 And if they do, that’s a story of itself that we should be diving into of why are they
    1:02:47 hanging out in the hot tubs with the guys.
    1:02:53 But year two, now that this is out there, if some things aren’t changed, you can’t claim
    1:02:54 ignorance anymore.
    1:03:01 Considering that an NFL workplace is substantially different in many ways from a typical workplace,
    1:03:07 what’s there to be learned from this survey for workers and employers who have nothing
    1:03:10 to do with pro sports, et cetera?
    1:03:14 The teams are called franchises, and I think that’s a connector outside of our industry.
    1:03:18 I think there is an expectation that everything is equal in the NFL, and I think everybody
    1:03:22 would think it’s equal at Starbucks and equal at Chick-fil-A and equal at McDonald’s.
    1:03:27 And if you go to a franchise, the rules and the treatment of the workers are the same.
    1:03:28 And I think we know that’s not true.
    1:03:33 And if you’re a worker, I think it would be valuable to know the treatment you will receive
    1:03:36 if you decide to work at one franchise versus another.
    1:03:42 And I also think if you’re the overall company, it would be interesting to see how your franchises
    1:03:48 who are carrying your name and dictating your brand image, how they treat their workers
    1:03:58 and how they treat their customers and how that varies across different franchise operators.
    1:04:05 I went back to Tom Garfinkel, the Miami Dolphins CEO and president, with a similar question.
    1:04:09 What kind of lessons are there to be drawn from this report card for the companies that
    1:04:11 aren’t NFL teams?
    1:04:15 Are there things that are applicable, or is the NFL work environment just too different
    1:04:17 to be useful for comparison?
    1:04:19 I think it’s definitely useful for comparison.
    1:04:25 I think it comes down to culture, values and standards, investment into your people.
    1:04:31 I’m a believer that people need to work together physically, certain jobs, if you’re coding,
    1:04:34 sitting at your computer all day, and that’s all you do.
    1:04:38 You could probably do that as easily from home as from an office, but most environments
    1:04:39 are still very human.
    1:04:44 They rely on human interaction and investing in those environments and investing in that
    1:04:49 organic interaction enhances creativity, it enhances productivity.
    1:04:53 It enhances people want meaning, right?
    1:04:56 It goes back to Victor Frankel and everything.
    1:04:57 Meaning matters.
    1:05:01 And I think what we do, it’s more than sports, it’s more than football.
    1:05:02 It’s about meaning.
    1:05:03 It’s about social interaction.
    1:05:07 We bring people together to experience life together.
    1:05:13 It’s still better to be in a stadium when someone catches that pass in the fourth quarter
    1:05:16 to win a football game than to watch it on television by yourself at home because you’re
    1:05:19 experiencing it with other people.
    1:05:24 And whether it’s that as a fan or whether it’s employees interacting together in the
    1:05:29 workplace, particularly in environments like this one and many are like this where people
    1:05:30 work very hard.
    1:05:36 They work long hours and you’re with your coworkers a lot and you want it to be inspiring.
    1:05:41 You want it to inspire creativity, productivity, happiness, positivity.
    1:05:45 And I think that’s the bigger lesson in all this than anything football related.
    1:05:52 I have to say, when we started working on this episode about workplace conditions in
    1:05:58 the NFL, I never thought we’d end up at Victor Frankel, but I’m glad we did.
    1:06:05 Frankel was an Austrian psychologist, a Holocaust survivor, best known for writing man’s search
    1:06:06 for meaning.
    1:06:08 If you haven’t read it, I’d suggest you do.
    1:06:12 It will make you think as it made Tom Garfinkel think.
    1:06:16 Thanks to him as well as all the other guests on today’s show.
    1:06:22 Also, let me share an update on the 2024 NFL Players Association report card.
    1:06:28 The Philadelphia Eagles jumped from 14th out of 32 teams all the way up to fourth.
    1:06:32 Too bad Jason Kelsey had retired and wasn’t around to enjoy that.
    1:06:37 The Eagles opponent in the upcoming Super Bowl, the Kansas City Chiefs, still get lousy
    1:06:44 marks on their report card, ranking 31st due to poor facilities and low grades for team
    1:06:46 owner Clark Hunt.
    1:06:51 The biggest jump on the ratings list was the Jacksonville Jaguars, who went from 28th
    1:06:57 to fifth thanks to upgrades in their facilities, which are now rat free.
    1:07:04 And the very best team to work for, according to the 2024 report card, was the Miami Dolphins,
    1:07:10 in part because Tom Garfinkel kept the promise he told us about to fix the family room.
    1:07:14 Second and third this year were the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers.
    1:07:16 That’s it for this update.
    1:07:18 We will be back soon with another new episode.
    1:07:20 Until then, take care of yourself.
    1:07:23 And if you can, someone else too.
    1:07:26 Freakonomics Radio is produced by Stitcher and Renbud Radio.
    1:07:32 This episode was produced by Ryan Kelly and updated by Dalvin Abouaji and Theo Jacobs.
    1:07:36 The Freakonomics Radio network staff also includes Alina Cullman, Augusta Chapman, Eleanor
    1:07:41 Osborn, Ellen Frankman, Elsa Hernandez, Gabriel Rolf, Greg Rippen, Jasmine Klinger, Jeremy
    1:07:47 Johnston, John Schnarrs, Morgan Levy, Neil Coruth, Sarah Lilly, and Zach Lipinski.
    1:07:52 You can find our entire archive on any podcast app or at Freakonomics.com, where we also
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    1:08:00 Our composer is Luis Guerra.
    1:08:09 As always, thanks for listening.
    1:08:10 How’d you bowl today, by the way?
    1:08:11 Terrible.
    1:08:12 It was one of my worst outings.
    1:08:13 The lights were slick.
    1:08:14 They put too much oil on.
    1:08:15 Oh, come on, come on, come on.
    1:08:16 It wasn’t ideal.
    1:08:17 Poor carpenter blames his tools.
    1:08:18 That’s fair.
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    In 2023, the N.F.L. players’ union conducted a workplace survey that revealed clogged showers, rats in the locker room — and some insights for those of us who don’t play football. Today we’re updating that episode, with extra commentary from Omnipresent Football Guy (and former Philadelphia Eagle) Jason Kelce. 

     

    • SOURCES:
      • Tom Garfinkel, vice chairman, C.E.O., and president of the Miami Dolphins.
      • Jim Ivler, certified contract advisor for players in the National Football League.
      • Jason Kelce, host of New Heights podcast and former center for the Philadelphia Eagles.
      • Jalen Reeves-Maybin, linebacker for the Detroit Lions and president of the National Football League Players Association.
      • Betsey Stevenson, professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan.
      • J.C. Tretter, former president of the National Football League Players Association and former offensive lineman.
      • Mark Wilf, owner and president of the Minnesota Vikings.

     

     

  • 620. Why Don’t Running Backs Get Paid Anymore?

    AI transcript
    0:00:08 Hey there, it’s Steven Dugner. Before today’s show, two quick things. Number one, on February
    0:00:14 13th, we are putting on a live Freakonomics radio show in Los Angeles. Come see us. As
    0:00:19 of this recording, there are some tickets left, but not many, so don’t dawdle. Go to
    0:00:27 Freakonomics.com/LiveShows, one word, to get tickets. And number two, we need your voice
    0:00:32 for an episode that we are in the middle of producing. It’s about sludge, not the physical
    0:00:37 sludge that gunks up machinery and things like that. I am talking about the administrative
    0:00:43 and bureaucratic sludge that can make it hard to do simple things like cancel the subscription
    0:00:49 or pick the best healthcare coverage or sign up for some government service. If you have
    0:00:55 a good sludge story, for example, we want to hear it. Use your phone to record a short
    0:01:02 voice memo and send it to radio@freakonomics.com. Please include your name, where you live,
    0:01:08 what you do, and tell us what’s your sludge story. How did you respond to this sludge?
    0:01:14 And do you think it was accidental sludge or intentional? Make sure you record your voice
    0:01:22 memo in a quiet place and again, send it to radio@freakonomics.com. Thanks much, Lee.
    0:01:30 And now, here is today’s episode.
    0:01:35 The National Football League, a phenomenally successful piece of the sports and entertainment
    0:01:41 industry, is largely built around the forward pass. That’s when the quarterback, the star
    0:01:46 of the show, throws a ball downfield to one of his sprinting receivers who tries to catch
    0:01:52 the ball and sprint even further down the field. This can be a very exciting thing to
    0:01:58 watch. In recent years, the passing game has gotten even more exciting and more sophisticated
    0:02:05 and it has helped drive the league’s massive growth. But if you ask football fans of a
    0:02:11 certain age who they idolized when they were kids, it probably wasn’t a wide receiver or
    0:02:19 even a quarterback. It was probably a running back.
    0:02:25 Tony Dorsett was my favorite player. I had the uniform, the helmet. The running backs
    0:02:33 were bigger stars during my childhood than the quarterbacks. My favorite player of all
    0:02:43 time was Barry Sanders. The day that he retired, I remember crying. I had a Ricky Waters jersey
    0:02:47 when he was with the Eagles actually. I wore it on the first day of school, I think of
    0:02:53 first or second grade.
    0:02:58 The three men we just heard from, we will meet them later. Two of them are former NFL
    0:03:03 running backs themselves and the other has represented many running backs as an agent.
    0:03:09 The running back I loved as a kid was Franco Harris of the Pittsburgh Steelers. To be honest,
    0:03:14 I was a little obsessed with Franco. We don’t need to get into the details here, but I did
    0:03:21 once write a book about him called Confessions of a Hero Worshipper. Like I said, a little
    0:03:27 bit obsessed. I liked everything about Franco, the way he carried himself off the field,
    0:03:32 especially how he ran. Some running backs, like Jim Brown, were known for their power
    0:03:38 for running people over. Others like Gale Sayers were so fast and graceful that it was hard
    0:03:44 to get a hand on them. Franco was somewhere in the middle, strong but elusive, a darter
    0:03:50 and a dodger. In football, every play is a miniature drama packed into just a few seconds,
    0:03:59 22 athletes moving at once, as complicated as a blueprint, as brutal as war, as delicate
    0:04:05 as ballet. A passing play is a bit of a magic trick. The quarterback and receiver try to
    0:04:11 trick the downfield defenders into being in the wrong place at the right time. A running
    0:04:17 play is more predictable, since the running back has to get through a wall of massive defenders.
    0:04:24 If he does, and breaks free into open space, that is a special kind of thrill.
    0:04:29 Back when Franco Harris was in the league, and for a long time after, many of the game’s
    0:04:35 biggest stars were running backs, and they were paid accordingly. If you go back 30 years
    0:04:41 and take the average salary of the top players by position, running backs ranked second, just
    0:04:48 behind quarterbacks. This year, running backs ranked thirteenth. So what happened? Everyone
    0:04:53 knows the NFL has become much more past happy these last few decades, but still, how did
    0:04:59 running backs fall so far? As it turns out, I wasn’t the only one with these questions.
    0:05:04 I was really interested in why salaries of running backs have declined and why they
    0:05:08 seem to be less important parts of the offense than I remembered.
    0:05:14 Roland Fryer, an economist at Harvard and a friend of Freakonomics, recently wrote
    0:05:18 a Wall Street Journal column called The Economics of Running Backs.
    0:05:23 It’s been kind of a slow drip, a slow decline of running backs, and then you think, why?
    0:05:24 What is it?
    0:05:29 I asked Roland if he would sit for an interview to help answer those questions. He said yes,
    0:05:36 but he had another idea that he insisted would be even more fun.
    0:05:41 So here’s the thing that really puzzles me. When I called you up and asked if we could
    0:05:45 talk about your Wall Street Journal column and make an episode based on this idea, you
    0:05:53 said yes, and I would actually like to co-host that episode. Can you explain that? I know
    0:05:59 very few Harvard economists or anybody really who’s interested in co-hosting a grubby little
    0:06:00 podcast.
    0:06:04 I’ve always had a crush on you, Steven, so I just want to get closer.
    0:06:11 Well, other than that, I guess the serious question I’m asking is, what kind of questions
    0:06:16 do you hope to answer or explore as we move forward? You’ve got some data, you’ve talked
    0:06:21 to a bunch of people, but plainly, your appetite is deeper than that. Why? What do you want
    0:06:22 to know?
    0:06:26 I think it’s such an intriguing question. It’s one of these things where your intuition
    0:06:32 and your eyeballs can oftentimes be inconsistent with what the actual data tell us, where does
    0:06:38 our intuition fail us? I think it does it a lot in life. I’m just fascinated by human
    0:06:44 behavior generally, but how we think about the use of my favorite subject economics when
    0:06:52 it comes to issues like valuing positions in a game that’s as complex as football.
    0:07:01 So, today on Freakonomics Radio, Roland Fryer and I explore the decline of the running back.
    0:07:05 We speak with one of the analytics gurus who sparked the revolution.
    0:07:12 Once I built that model, it was very, very clear that passing was far superior to running.
    0:07:16 We will hear an agent explain why the position is so difficult.
    0:07:23 The running back is the most violent position in the most violent sport on the planet.
    0:07:26 And of course, we will get the running back perspective.
    0:07:30 The quarterback got all the credit for taking it to the Super Bowl, and he did the bare minimum.
    0:07:34 The upcoming Super Bowl, the Philadelphia Eagles against the Kansas City Chiefs, will
    0:07:38 feature a running back who had a historically great season.
    0:07:42 So, does this mean we’re looking at a running back renaissance?
    0:07:44 I don’t think so.
    0:08:02 The causes and consequences of the running back decline starting now.
    0:08:08 This is Freakonomics Radio, the podcast that explores the hidden side of everything with
    0:08:18 your host, Steven Dubner.
    0:08:23 So look, I’m of two minds about this, because I have this job at Harvard.
    0:08:29 I’d give it away in a second if I could have been an NFL player, right?
    0:08:30 Roland Fryer is a Harvard economist.
    0:08:35 He has also co-founded a few companies, and he’s won some major awards for his research
    0:08:38 on education and policing.
    0:08:42 You may remember him from an episode we made a few years ago called “Roland Fryer Refuses
    0:08:45 to Lie to Black America.”
    0:08:50 But when he was a kid, he did not dream of being an economist.
    0:08:54 In the early 1980s, when the running backs Eric Dickerson and Walter Payton were tearing
    0:09:01 up the NFL, Roland was doing the same in Pop Warner football.
    0:09:03 I started playing football at age five.
    0:09:09 The coach asked me to race their fastest player, and I won, and he said, “You’re on the team.”
    0:09:13 In Texas, you play flag football five and six years old, and seven years old onwards,
    0:09:15 you strap on the pads and go to work.
    0:09:19 The coolest thing about playing was that they had a legitimate draft.
    0:09:21 You’d run a 40-yard dash.
    0:09:22 You’d kick the ball.
    0:09:23 You’d throw the ball.
    0:09:24 You’d catch some balls.
    0:09:27 They had a little shed there at the fields.
    0:09:32 They’d put all your measurements up, and then the coaches would select by lottery who went
    0:09:33 first.
    0:09:37 So we cared about where we were drafted as early as eight or nine years old.
    0:09:39 And how did you do in the draft?
    0:09:42 Oh, man, I was always in the one drafting.
    0:09:44 So what was your view of the running back position then?
    0:09:47 Did you just feel like you were king of the hill?
    0:09:50 Of course, because it was Texas Pop Warner football.
    0:09:55 My coaches early on told me my real talent was what they called running to the light,
    0:10:00 that you would just figure out where the gaps were and go, and it was all intuition.
    0:10:02 You’d score five, six touchdowns a game.
    0:10:03 I loved it.
    0:10:12 I absolutely loved playing football, and running backs were revered back then.
    0:10:16 It wasn’t just back then in the early ’80s that running backs were revered.
    0:10:21 They had been at the center of the game since it began in the mid-1800s.
    0:10:27 It wasn’t until 1906 that the forward pass was allowed in professional football.
    0:10:33 The NFL was founded in 1920, and for its first few decades, passing was rare.
    0:10:38 On the vast majority of plays, the ball was snapped to the quarterback who would then
    0:10:44 hand it off to a running back who would follow the blocks of his offensive linemen to try
    0:10:46 to get through the defensive linemen.
    0:10:49 It was not necessarily exciting.
    0:10:53 Football was a slow and grinding affair.
    0:10:57 Three yards and a cloud of dust was how people described it.
    0:11:01 Perhaps not coincidentally, football was not very popular either.
    0:11:05 The big American sports back then were baseball and boxing.
    0:11:10 It wasn’t until the 1960s and ’70s with the rise of the passing game that football started
    0:11:14 to become the juggernaut it is today.
    0:11:19 But for at least a couple more decades, running backs remained the star attraction.
    0:11:24 The position has always required a certain amount of physical sacrifice.
    0:11:26 Every part of football is physical, right?
    0:11:30 But when you’re running the ball, it’s not just the person in front of you that you’re
    0:11:31 going into.
    0:11:34 People are coming from the side and taking hits at knees.
    0:11:35 You can get rolled up on.
    0:11:38 There’s a lot of bodies there.
    0:11:43 So how long ago did you start thinking about this decline in the value of the running back?
    0:11:50 Years because it’s been a slow decline of running backs, and it’s my favorite position.
    0:11:55 I thought, why are my boys being paid less when these quarterbacks who aren’t nearly
    0:11:57 as tough as running backs are being paid more?
    0:12:03 I grew up in the era of Barry Sanders, Walter Payton, Emmett Smith.
    0:12:07 I’ve always liked these really, really explosive running backs just because they look like
    0:12:09 pure athletes.
    0:12:12 So the non-economists in me wanted them to be paid more.
    0:12:17 The economists in me understands that marginal value is what matters, and that’s what’s happening.
    0:12:20 So Fryer put his research skills to work.
    0:12:25 The first thing to do was to walk through and just verify those basic statistics.
    0:12:30 Look at the salaries as a share of total spend of running backs relative to quarterbacks.
    0:12:33 And of course, that’s what you find out.
    0:12:37 You can verify the intuition very quickly that the proportion of spend for running backs
    0:12:41 has gone down over time and quarterbacks much higher.
    0:12:43 And not just quarterbacks much higher.
    0:12:45 Everybody else on the offensive team.
    0:12:46 Everybody.
    0:12:50 And so the running backs, they’ve had the biggest drop relative to any other position.
    0:12:57 This season, the average salary of a starting quarterback in the NFL was just over $30 million.
    0:13:02 The average for starting running backs, $6 million.
    0:13:06 There are still plenty of running backs who are considered superstars, Saquon Barkley,
    0:13:12 Derek Henry, Josh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey, but they’re not paid like superstars.
    0:13:17 None of those four are among the five highest paid players on their team.
    0:13:18 Why not?
    0:13:22 Roland Fryer wondered whether this was a supply story or a demand story.
    0:13:27 In other words, were running backs just not as good as they used to be or did teams no
    0:13:30 longer value what running backs had to offer?
    0:13:33 So the first thing I did was test a bunch of supply side theories.
    0:13:39 We went and collected all the data we could on passing yards, running yards over the years,
    0:13:40 by team, et cetera.
    0:13:44 But also, we needed to understand the characteristics of the players.
    0:13:49 So we looked at combine statistics and all the data we could collect from there in terms
    0:13:54 of 40 speed, three cone, drill speeds, which is a measure of explosiveness, bench press,
    0:13:55 all those kinds of things.
    0:14:00 The NFL Combine is a showcase where teams assess the abilities of the college players
    0:14:02 they are looking to draft.
    0:14:08 And what we found was that running backs in terms of their abilities in the combine have
    0:14:09 not changed.
    0:14:15 The supply going in has not changed, and importantly, because it is a team sport, the supply of
    0:14:18 the other people around them hasn’t changed much.
    0:14:25 But what has changed is the expected value of a passing play relative to a running play.
    0:14:30 The NFL and the teams want to maximize wins, maximize revenue.
    0:14:32 And the way you do that is that you score a lot of points.
    0:14:35 The way you score a lot of points is that you pass the ball more.
    0:14:36 Pretty simple.
    0:14:38 Is it that simple?
    0:14:42 To find out, we wanted to hear from some running backs.
    0:14:44 Roland took the first interview.
    0:14:45 Are we ready?
    0:14:46 Yeah.
    0:14:53 One, two, three, four, eggs, turkey bacon, never pork, little pancakes, light syrup, OJ,
    0:14:54 you know.
    0:14:56 So just give me your name and what you do.
    0:14:58 My name is LeShaw McCoy.
    0:15:03 I’m an ex NFL all decade running back for the Eagles, the Bills, the Chiefs, and the
    0:15:04 Bucks.
    0:15:09 And now I’m on Fox with the facility five day week show.
    0:15:12 Tell me about your early memories of playing running back.
    0:15:15 So I was about five years old.
    0:15:17 You post a play at six, but I loved the game so much.
    0:15:20 I lied to him until I was six when I was really five.
    0:15:21 We all hitting at five.
    0:15:22 I mean, we had pads on.
    0:15:23 I don’t want to call it hitting.
    0:15:24 We had pads on.
    0:15:25 Back in the day, man, it was different.
    0:15:28 When we’re hanging out in the neighborhoods, we would call this thing free for all.
    0:15:32 It would be like seven, eight kids, and we would throw the ball, and one dude had to
    0:15:34 make all eight guys miss.
    0:15:38 So tell me what I want people to hear from you.
    0:15:39 Like what is like playing running back?
    0:15:46 I mean, what part of it is mental, physical, how much of it can be taught versus instincts?
    0:15:51 It’s one of the most unique positions on the field because you’re the farthest one back.
    0:15:54 So you see everything going on.
    0:15:57 And as a running back, you have a job to do every single play.
    0:16:01 Wire receivers, they can take a playoff, but running backs don’t have that because we’re
    0:16:07 either running the ball or we’re blocking or we’re in the passing routes.
    0:16:11 One part of it is really the skill, natural gifts from God.
    0:16:13 Another part is studying and learning.
    0:16:18 And I tell other young backs now is let your natural instincts happen, right?
    0:16:23 But being a student of the game, learning like, okay, every defense has a weak point.
    0:16:25 Your job is where you might define that.
    0:16:29 Tell me in your view, why is the running back market like it is today?
    0:16:32 I mean, do you feel like the current situation is unfair?
    0:16:34 Do you feel like it’s fine?
    0:16:35 I hate it.
    0:16:36 It’s unfair.
    0:16:41 It’s unfair because you’re telling me that you’d be a great difference maker as a running
    0:16:42 back.
    0:16:47 And because I don’t play quarterback, I can’t get paid the right value for my position.
    0:16:52 You’re telling me that because I don’t play quarterback, I got to play elite level every
    0:16:54 year to get elite money.
    0:17:01 But the quarterback can play above average for years and one year be pretty good.
    0:17:03 And now you’re about to get elite money.
    0:17:04 Think about that.
    0:17:08 Guys like Josh Jacobs, really good running back, played on bad teams and still played
    0:17:09 well.
    0:17:12 In his last year with the Raiders, he said, yo, you know, I led the league in rushing
    0:17:15 and it didn’t offer me a contract.
    0:17:19 Can you imagine the world where the quarterback leads the league in passing yards and he don’t
    0:17:21 get offered a contract?
    0:17:26 But on the other hand, I don’t see any Super Bowl winners in the last 20 years with a mediocre
    0:17:29 quarterback, maybe Brad Johnson of the Tampa Bay Bucks.
    0:17:35 I see several with average running backs and really good quarterbacks.
    0:17:39 Is that a reason that the quarterback position is valued more?
    0:17:43 Well, it’s tricky because the few quarterbacks in the last five, six years, these guys been
    0:17:45 like all pro quarterbacks.
    0:17:51 Brady, he’s still one in there, Stafford’s still one in there, Mahomes got three in there.
    0:17:54 These ain’t this regular guys is winning Super Bowl’s.
    0:17:58 In 2019, I was blessed to be with the Kansas City Chiefs and I won a championship with
    0:17:59 them guys.
    0:18:02 Pastor Mahomes have to come back in the fourth quarter to win that game.
    0:18:05 But then I look across the field, we’re playing the Niners.
    0:18:11 The whole week, the game preparation was all we got to do was get the third down.
    0:18:12 Why is that?
    0:18:18 Because we want this quarterback that was paid all this money to throw the ball on third
    0:18:19 down.
    0:18:20 His name was Jimmy G.
    0:18:21 That’s who that was.
    0:18:26 The brother threw like 40 some passes, the whole playoffs and the undrafted running backs
    0:18:27 carried them.
    0:18:31 The quarterback got all the credit for taking to the Super Bowl and he did the bare minimum.
    0:18:33 Oh, we go to New York.
    0:18:41 A dude like Saquon Barkley can be that good and you rather pay Dan Jones.
    0:18:47 How the hell is that fair?
    0:18:52 This pullback here just in case you haven’t been following the recent psychodrama with
    0:18:55 the New York Giants that McCoy was talking about.
    0:18:59 Saquon Barkley is a name that comes up again and again in the argument about the value
    0:19:05 of a running back in part because of the monster season he’s had this year with the Eagles.
    0:19:06 But it’s more interesting than that.
    0:19:11 The Giants took Barkley in the 2018 draft with the second overall pick.
    0:19:15 His five seasons in New York range from good to very good.
    0:19:20 He was hurt a few times and the Giants offensive line was weak, but he was still considered
    0:19:22 a top running back.
    0:19:25 The Giants chose to not offer him a new contract.
    0:19:28 Instead they use what’s called a franchise tag.
    0:19:33 That’s an NFL rule that allows a team to keep a good player for one year at a relatively
    0:19:39 high salary rather than letting him become a free agent and pursue a longer term deal.
    0:19:44 While the Giants had Barkley on this one year hold, they gave their quarterback Daniel
    0:19:49 Jones a four-year contract averaging $40 million a year.
    0:19:53 When Barkley became a free agent, he left the Giants and signed a three-year contract
    0:19:59 with the Philadelphia Eagles for about $12 million a year, so less than a third of what
    0:20:01 Daniel Jones was being paid.
    0:20:05 And how did Jones and Barkley do this year?
    0:20:10 Barkley had one of the best seasons an NFL running back has ever had and his Eagles are
    0:20:11 in the Super Bowl.
    0:20:18 Daniel Jones played so badly that the Giants benched him and then released him.
    0:20:22 Like LeSean McCoy asked, “How is that fair?”
    0:20:24 Well, “fair” may not be the right word.
    0:20:32 The real issue is value, the value of a running play versus the value of a passing play.
    0:20:38 The run-pass balance, it was this perennial question, do teams run too often or they not
    0:20:40 run often enough?
    0:20:45 What is Brian Burke, a sports data scientist with ESPN?
    0:20:49 And so there was this question and so people came along and they started to analyze the
    0:20:52 question and they didn’t really have the right tools.
    0:20:57 So Brian, the reason I was really eager to speak with you is that Roland wrote this piece
    0:21:02 in the Wall Street Journal about the decline of running back salaries.
    0:21:09 And I’ve been told that if we had to point to one person in the universe who is perhaps
    0:21:13 most responsible for that decline, it might be you.
    0:21:16 Do you want to claim that credit or blame?
    0:21:18 I won’t argue against it.
    0:21:25 I was part of a larger movement that I may have been at the forefront of it, but I certainly
    0:21:26 wasn’t alone.
    0:21:29 Describe your role in that larger movement then.
    0:21:35 My role in this was my hobby, which was football stats and what eventually became known as
    0:21:36 analytics.
    0:21:40 Now, football stats were only a hobby at the time because you were a U.S. Navy pilot, correct?
    0:21:41 Yeah.
    0:21:46 Went to flight school, made it into F-18s, flew single-seed fighters for my career in
    0:21:47 the Navy.
    0:21:52 They sent me to Monterey to grad school and that’s where I learned my stats.
    0:21:56 I thought this is completely useless, like how am I ever going to use this in the Navy?
    0:22:00 But once I got out of the Navy, I thought, gosh, the level of analysis in football is
    0:22:01 so bad.
    0:22:04 What were your early jobs between getting out of the Navy and doing what you do now?
    0:22:06 I have to be a little bit careful.
    0:22:08 I live in Northern Virginia.
    0:22:10 I was recruited.
    0:22:11 By something with three letters maybe?
    0:22:15 To do some government stuff for a while that didn’t last too long.
    0:22:17 Your choice or their choice?
    0:22:18 It was complicated.
    0:22:22 I became a single dad and raised two kids, so it was just incompatible.
    0:22:27 But you ended up working around another three-letter institution, the NFL?
    0:22:29 A lot of three letters.
    0:22:34 Most of my time between the Navy and doing football for the day job, I was a defense
    0:22:43 contractor and I was a tactics and strategy expert and instructor and I would shirk all
    0:22:47 my daily responsibilities to crunch football numbers all day long.
    0:22:50 So I’ll tell you the origin story.
    0:22:54 Kind of a water cooler conversation with my good friend, coworker, John Moser.
    0:22:58 The conversation came around to like defense wins championships, right?
    0:23:00 The old standby, you know?
    0:23:01 And I was like, well, does it?
    0:23:02 I don’t know.
    0:23:04 I can’t believe that, but does it really?
    0:23:05 What do people mean by that?
    0:23:10 And I thought, my God, I have this software left over from grad school and, you know,
    0:23:12 they put all the stats online now.
    0:23:14 So this is like 2006.
    0:23:15 I said, hey, you know what?
    0:23:20 We can just download the data and by the end of lunch, we can answer this question forever.
    0:23:24 And that was the genesis of, you know, football analytics for me.
    0:23:27 When I began doing this, I hadn’t read Moneyball.
    0:23:29 I didn’t know that existed.
    0:23:35 It was an advantage because the baseball people tried to put it on the football for a long
    0:23:36 time.
    0:23:40 The kind of tools and the kind of analysis just doesn’t work on football.
    0:23:44 I came from this military background and I’m like, this is war.
    0:23:48 This is zero sum two player game theory.
    0:23:51 And that paradigm took hold.
    0:23:55 In what ways would you say that your military background contributed to the way that you
    0:23:59 frame the questions you’re trying to answer in football?
    0:24:02 There’s this optimization element to it.
    0:24:07 In the same way in the military, you have a mix of strategies.
    0:24:10 It’s not like always do this or always do that.
    0:24:17 You have to be unpredictable in a way that keeps your enemy or your opponent on his heels.
    0:24:23 There’s a famous thinker in military aviation named John Boyd who invented this thing called
    0:24:30 the OODA loop, if you’ve ever heard of that, and keeping the enemy confused and disoriented
    0:24:36 and in a state of ambiguity is one of the goals in American fighting theory.
    0:24:40 Football works the same way.
    0:24:47 So in a war-like setting, when you’re trying to advance into enemy territory, which weapon
    0:24:51 is more valuable, the ground game or the passing game?
    0:24:55 Brian Burke’s analytic approach allowed him to answer that question.
    0:25:00 I was able to build something called expected points and expected points added.
    0:25:05 It’s a point expectancy model based on down distance and yard line.
    0:25:10 Once I built that model, the very first thing I did was just aggregate by play type.
    0:25:16 And it was very, very clear at that moment that passing was far superior to running.
    0:25:19 Teams are running far too often.
    0:25:25 And the way you know that is because if they’re doing each in the optimum mix, the payoffs
    0:25:26 would equalize.
    0:25:31 There would be what people commonly refer to in game theory as like Nash equilibrium.
    0:25:36 As long as you have an intelligent opponent, you can assume that that equilibrium is going
    0:25:38 to be the optimum mix.
    0:25:40 And they were far out of whack.
    0:25:42 From that moment on, we knew that you need to pass more.
    0:25:44 What year was this?
    0:25:50 2008 is when I first did this, but it took years to permeate the football world.
    0:25:52 It was a slow process.
    0:25:53 Let’s back up a bit.
    0:25:59 You don’t have to go back to the 1920s or the 1950s, but pick whatever seems like a
    0:26:05 sensible starting point in modern NFL history and tell me how the running game evolved and
    0:26:08 was eventually superseded by the passing game.
    0:26:12 I think Franco Harris is a good starting point for the modern era.
    0:26:18 That’s where people of our age grew up learning our football, and same with coaches.
    0:26:19 This is the 1970s.
    0:26:22 In those days, passing was very, very difficult.
    0:26:25 So running was a much better strategy.
    0:26:31 And then in 1978, the league massively rewrote the rules that had to do with passing, not
    0:26:39 just illegal contact, the way linemen could pass block radically changed, and the league
    0:26:43 is still catching up to this day in terms of exploiting those rule changes.
    0:26:48 Over time, different systems started to exploit the new rules, then 2004, they changed the
    0:26:49 rules again.
    0:26:55 So over time, the potency of the running game compared to the passing game has decreased
    0:26:56 steadily.
    0:27:04 So the story you’re telling me is simply that football people, including coaches and
    0:27:10 analytics people like you, have been discovering over the years that passing is more valuable
    0:27:11 than running.
    0:27:17 Additionally, the league itself decided over many years to make passing more prominent by
    0:27:18 rule changes.
    0:27:24 And so now we’ve just arrived at this new circumstance where passing is just more valuable
    0:27:26 than running.
    0:27:29 Where does that leave the running back in the modern football economy?
    0:27:32 Well, he’s just not going to be as valuable.
    0:27:35 This star running back is not going to carry you to a Super Bowl.
    0:27:41 It hasn’t happened in generations.
    0:27:45 Could it be that this generation is different?
    0:27:48 And is Saekwon Barkley the difference maker?
    0:27:55 Over the past 20 Super Bowls, the top rusher on the winning team has averaged only 70 yards.
    0:27:58 If you look at the betting markets for this year’s Super Bowl, Barkley is expected to
    0:28:01 gain 115 rushing yards.
    0:28:06 When the Eagles beat the Washington Commanders last week to get into the Super Bowl, Barkley
    0:28:10 ran for 118 yards and three touchdowns.
    0:28:15 This led Fox Sports announcer Kevin Burkhart to call the Eagles pickup of Barkley, “one
    0:28:18 of the best free agent signings of all time.”
    0:28:23 Still, the Eagles’ opponent in the upcoming Super Bowl, the Kansas City Chiefs, are going
    0:28:28 for their third Super Bowl in a row, which would be a record, and their fourth win in
    0:28:30 six years.
    0:28:35 Even a casual football fan can name the Chiefs starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes and their
    0:28:40 super-study tight end Travis Kelsey, who is even better known for dating Taylor Swift.
    0:28:46 But can you name the running backs who helped the Chiefs win all these Super Bowls?
    0:28:47 Probably not.
    0:28:50 They’ve been practically interchangeable, most of them earning between one and three
    0:28:58 million dollars a year compared to Kelsey’s 17 million and Mahomes’s 45 million.
    0:29:02 You may be thinking, “I understand that running backs have become somewhat less valuable,
    0:29:06 but are they really that much less valuable?”
    0:29:11 The answer to that question has to do with something that happened in 2011.
    0:29:17 The average fan doesn’t fully appreciate that the NFL is a huge business.
    0:29:22 Just coming up, after the break, I’m Stephen Dubner, and you were listening to Freakonomics
    0:29:35 Radio.
    0:29:40 Back in September, at the start of the NFL season, the Economist Roland Friar and I decided
    0:29:46 to team up to try to learn why running back salaries have fallen so much since their heyday.
    0:29:51 These are driven in part by where a player is selected in the NFL draft.
    0:29:57 In 1990, 12 running backs were taken in the first two rounds of the draft.
    0:30:00 This year, there was one.
    0:30:02 So what’s driving this decline?
    0:30:08 We’ve already heard about the analytics revolution that showed the value of passing versus running.
    0:30:13 We’ve heard about rule changes the NFL adopted to privilege the passing game, but there was
    0:30:20 another big change in 2011 that shook things up for NFL rookies generally and running backs
    0:30:21 in particular.
    0:30:25 The team has control of you for five years.
    0:30:27 That is Robert Turbin.
    0:30:32 He was an NFL running back for four teams over eight seasons, including a Super Bowl win with
    0:30:33 the Seattle Seahawks.
    0:30:37 Today, he does football commentary for CBS Sports.
    0:30:39 Roland Friar spoke with him.
    0:30:42 Why do you think the running back market is so challenging today?
    0:30:45 Number one, the CBA.
    0:30:50 That’s the meat and potatoes of the conversation when it comes to the running backs.
    0:30:56 The CBA is a collective bargaining agreement, the contract between NFL teams and the NFL
    0:31:00 Players Association, the union that represents the athletes.
    0:31:07 The negotiations over a CBA are long and often contentious as they establish pay standards
    0:31:09 and other terms for years to come.
    0:31:15 The current CBA was agreed to in 2020 and runs through the 2030 season.
    0:31:18 The one before that went into effect in 2011.
    0:31:24 Overall, the 2011 CBA was a lucrative affair for the players.
    0:31:29 Their share of league revenues rose from 42% to 47%.
    0:31:33 But that agreement also came with some restrictions for rookies.
    0:31:38 Before 2011, a drafted player could freely negotiate a contract with the team that chose
    0:31:39 him.
    0:31:44 That led to some bad deals for teams when the player didn’t play well or got hurt.
    0:31:51 The 2011 agreement created a rookie wage scale that set contract terms based on draft order.
    0:31:56 It also mandated a four-year contract with a cost-controlled fifth-year option that their
    0:31:58 team could exercise.
    0:32:03 This structure is still in place today, and that’s what Robert Turbin is talking about
    0:32:08 when he tells Roland Friar that the team has control of you for five years.
    0:32:15 What happens is you come into the league as a 22-year-old rookie, and basically, you are
    0:32:23 handcuffed for five years, so realistically, you don’t have an opportunity to re-up or
    0:32:28 get a second contract until you’re 27 years old.
    0:32:32 For some positions in football, including quarterback, a player is just coming into
    0:32:35 his prime at age 27.
    0:32:38 That is not the case for running backs.
    0:32:44 By the time you’re 27 years old, if you’ve carried the ball 250 times per year, they’re
    0:32:49 going to look at those numbers and say, “Well, he may not have it the way he used to.
    0:32:52 That may not be true for most running backs.
    0:32:54 It is true for some.”
    0:33:01 The CBA is really what devalued the position, because let’s say you were able to get out
    0:33:07 of that contract or re-up out of that contract after three years.
    0:33:14 Now you’re a 25-year-old back still in his prime with an opportunity to maximize on economics
    0:33:17 from a contractual standpoint.
    0:33:22 It seems like there is some relationship between the CBA and durability, which is if you’ve
    0:33:25 got to wait for five years, and as you say, you’ve carried the ball all this number of
    0:33:29 times, then executives are going to look at that and say, “How much more does he have
    0:33:30 in the tank?”
    0:33:33 So durability is part of it through the CBA, right?
    0:33:34 100%.
    0:33:38 I mean, five years is, that’s obviously not a full career.
    0:33:43 That’s not the type of career you would imagine for yourself, but we know that the average
    0:33:44 is less than three.
    0:33:48 I was fortunate to play eight for a back.
    0:33:50 That’s pretty damn good.
    0:33:57 I’ll never forget when I was in Indianapolis, this was 2017.
    0:34:04 I’m 27 years old, and I’m talking to a scout from another team, and I dislocated my elbow
    0:34:08 in week six of that year, so I was coming back.
    0:34:09 He asked me, he says, “How old are you?”
    0:34:10 I said, “I’m 27.”
    0:34:11 He said, “Oh, okay.”
    0:34:14 So he got about another year or so left, and I said, “What?”
    0:34:17 Like, “What are you talking about?”
    0:34:22 But that’s the thought process for a lot of executives until proven wrong.
    0:34:32 It’s almost like you’re guilty until proven innocent as a running back.
    0:34:38 If you go back 20 years, the average career length for an NFL running back was around
    0:34:40 five and a half years.
    0:34:45 That number started dropping right around the 2011 collective bargaining agreement, and
    0:34:50 today the average length is around two and a half years.
    0:34:53 Let’s hear now from another former running back, Robert Smith.
    0:34:58 Like Robert Turbin, Smith played for eight years, all of his were with the Minnesota
    0:34:59 Vikings.
    0:35:01 Smith retired after the 2000 season.
    0:35:06 It was always kind of a badge of honor to play the position because it is a very physical
    0:35:13 position, and there are times when you have to block players that outweigh you by a large
    0:35:14 amount.
    0:35:16 It’s not for the faint of heart.
    0:35:20 Today Smith calls NFL and college games for Fox Sports.
    0:35:24 His reverence for the running back position goes deep.
    0:35:28 Only the quarterback has the ball in their hands more, and so you have, I think, one
    0:35:33 of the greatest opportunities to impact the outcome of a game on every running play.
    0:35:38 11 guys are trying to hit the same person, and that’s the guy who has the ball.
    0:35:43 It’s the challenging part, but it’s also the rewarding part that you were able to get
    0:35:44 by them.
    0:35:49 I hold the NFL record for the longest average per touchdown running, more than 26 yards.
    0:35:56 And I got to tell you, it’s a feeling that I wish everybody could experience when you
    0:36:02 break into the open and you know you’re going to score a touchdown.
    0:36:09 It’s like when you’re leaning back in a chair and you almost tip and fall, and you get this
    0:36:12 rush of adrenaline.
    0:36:19 It’s like this sudden burst of excitement that I’m about to score a touchdown.
    0:36:25 Those occasional bursts of excitement are, of course, offset by thousands of hours of
    0:36:28 training and by the physical punishment.
    0:36:34 I tore my ACL my rookie season, but in that injury I also broke the bottom of my femur
    0:36:39 and did some damage to the articular cartilage, which is the smooth cartilage that’s on the
    0:36:42 tip of the bone, and I needed to have a microfracture.
    0:36:47 It’s a procedure where they tap on the exposed surface of the bone, and then I needed to
    0:36:50 have that again after my last season in the league.
    0:36:56 So there I was a couple of months shy of my 29th birthday, but it was the only season
    0:37:02 I didn’t miss any games, and I still needed to have knee surgery after the year.
    0:37:07 And the thing that I said was, you know, if you would pay any amount of money to get your
    0:37:11 health back if you lost it, then what amount of money is worth the very real chance that
    0:37:12 you’ll lose it?
    0:37:15 It was the calculation that was going on in my head.
    0:37:16 That’s why I left the game when I did.
    0:37:25 I’m thinking quite literally it’s better to walk away early than to limp away late.
    0:37:29 Robert Smith had a lot of reasons to walk away, a lot of things beyond football that
    0:37:30 excited him.
    0:37:36 He is an amateur astronomer, a prolific reader, and in addition to his broadcasting duties,
    0:37:43 he is working on a health and wellness startup, plus which he made good money as a younger
    0:37:44 man.
    0:37:47 His final contract paid him $25 million over five years.
    0:37:54 In his last season, the best of his career, he ranked second in the NFL in rushing yards.
    0:37:59 But it was clear by then that running back money was drying up.
    0:38:04 Every team has a league imposed salary cap, and they’re constantly trying to figure out
    0:38:09 which players they can give less money to in order to give more money to the players
    0:38:11 they think they cannot win without.
    0:38:15 And running backs had fallen off the cannot win without list.
    0:38:21 Over the past few decades, NFL revenues have more than doubled to about $20 billion a year.
    0:38:26 Since players get a percentage share of revenues, that means the overall player pool has also
    0:38:27 more than doubled.
    0:38:31 But running backs have barely shared in that gain.
    0:38:37 The pay for running backs and full backs over the past two decades has risen around 11 percent.
    0:38:43 For all other offensive positions, salaries have risen at least 90 percent.
    0:38:46 If you don’t believe me, just ask an agent.
    0:38:51 Jeffrey Whitney, I am one of the founders and president at the Sports and Entertainment
    0:38:57 Group, a full-service sports agency in Washington, D.C., been doing it for 20-plus years.
    0:39:00 So how many athletes do you represent now, your firm?
    0:39:03 We represent about 40 NFL players at any given time.
    0:39:06 So we’re one of the larger agencies.
    0:39:11 It would appear to me that an agent is busy and important when you’re making a deal,
    0:39:15 but I don’t know how much maintenance that deal requires as time goes on.
    0:39:21 Can you just talk about in the life cycle of an athlete, how involved are you?
    0:39:26 We’re involved in every aspect of our client’s lives on a daily basis.
    0:39:31 We spend probably the least amount of time actually negotiating contracts.
    0:39:37 I’m a family therapist, a relationship therapist, some type of preacher or pastor would need
    0:39:38 me.
    0:39:39 Financial advisor?
    0:39:42 Financial advisor, just day-to-day counselor.
    0:39:43 That’s what I love doing.
    0:39:44 No day is the same.
    0:39:49 I got up today and I get a call from a player who’s injured.
    0:39:50 So I have to deal with that.
    0:39:55 I get a call from a player who’s moving and he needs to be guiding in the right direction.
    0:39:59 Playing players, they’ll call me and ask me what TV they should purchase.
    0:40:04 We’re in many ways with these young people involved with them in a very intimate and
    0:40:05 deep fashion.
    0:40:11 Among agents that represent NFL players, what would you say that you’re most known for?
    0:40:14 In the past, we were actually known as the Running Back Agency.
    0:40:19 We’ve represented more running backs over the last 20 years than any other agency.
    0:40:20 Name some for me.
    0:40:26 Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, Tevin Coleman, Jordan Howard, James White, Sweet Feet from
    0:40:32 New England, Kendall Hunter, Levy-Anne Bell, Michael Carter.
    0:40:35 We have Cody Schrader this year who’s now with the Rams.
    0:40:38 Do you still represent the same share of running backs?
    0:40:40 We have pared down.
    0:40:49 The market has spoken and over the last few years, we got into the receiver cornerback,
    0:40:50 that kind of market.
    0:40:55 We never got out of the business of representing running backs, but we did start shaping our
    0:40:56 roster a little bit.
    0:40:59 I don’t mean to accuse you of chasing the money yourselves.
    0:41:03 You say you’re responding to the market, but in a case like this where you guys were known
    0:41:09 as a running back agency and then the market for running backs changes really pretty dramatically.
    0:41:11 I mean, who ends up representing the running backs?
    0:41:15 Just different agents who are starting out, who don’t have as much luxury to pick their
    0:41:16 roster.
    0:41:18 The way you guys do, is that the way it works?
    0:41:19 That’s exactly what you saw.
    0:41:25 There were agents during the last few years who just didn’t represent running backs at
    0:41:30 all and they were literally running backs in the market looking for representation.
    0:41:31 There’s a supply and demand issue.
    0:41:35 There are more running backs than positions.
    0:41:40 It is a position where you can find really good players all across the draft and after
    0:41:41 the draft.
    0:41:44 There also is this, the running quarterback.
    0:41:48 You can look at the total number of yards that a team has.
    0:41:52 Now, a lot of that yardage is coming, not from the running backs, but it’s coming from
    0:41:53 the quarterback.
    0:41:58 So now, probably half the league has quarterbacks who can run as well as the running back.
    0:42:03 What about rule changes that facilitated an opening up of the passing game?
    0:42:10 The average fan sometimes doesn’t fully appreciate that the NFL is a huge business.
    0:42:12 It is a business at the highest level.
    0:42:17 It’s $20 billion, it’ll go to $25, the ultimate goal I’m hearing it’s going to be a $50 billion
    0:42:20 industry in the next 10 years.
    0:42:26 I think we’ve seen over the last 10 years kind of a cultural shift, not just in the
    0:42:28 NFL, but across sports.
    0:42:33 As fans, we simply see the outcome of the game and we don’t really understand that at
    0:42:38 the end of the day, these are corporations that are going to be responsive to their shareholders
    0:42:39 and consumers.
    0:42:41 And the NFL is no different.
    0:42:45 People like to see the ball in the air, the acrobatic catches and the leaps.
    0:42:47 The fans want to see loan balls.
    0:42:49 They want to see passing.
    0:42:53 I still can watch a 10 to seven game, a defensive battle.
    0:42:58 The best player is the middle linebacker and the running back and I’m happy with that.
    0:43:02 But for the younger generation, absolutely boring.
    0:43:08 We can talk supply and demand, we can talk the running quarterback and those all do have
    0:43:12 some influence in the devaluation for the running back position.
    0:43:17 Ultimately, if we really dig down and look at root causes, it’s really the corporation,
    0:43:22 the actual NFL, responding to their consumer base and what their consumer base wants to
    0:43:23 see.
    0:43:28 When you say that the NFL responded to what the market wants, give me some specific examples
    0:43:34 of how the league has added leverage to make passing more prominent, either passing and
    0:43:37 or quarterback play more prominent.
    0:43:41 You’ve seen a ton of rule changes, obviously, to make it a higher scoring game with more
    0:43:43 offense.
    0:43:48 The defenses have been handicapped, the pass interference rules.
    0:43:52 You can’t hit the quarterback, some of the rules are good for the safety of the players.
    0:43:57 But certainly the root of the reason it’s to increase the scoring and the way you do
    0:43:59 that is through passing.
    0:44:02 Let’s talk about injuries and perishability generally.
    0:44:07 Just talk about the physical punishment that comes along with running back position where
    0:44:09 it ranks with other offensive players.
    0:44:10 Make no mistake about it.
    0:44:18 The running back is the most violent position in the most violent sport on the planet.
    0:44:20 Running backs are getting hit on every play.
    0:44:22 In pass protection, they’re getting hit.
    0:44:29 You’ve got a running back who’s 5’10”, 215 pounds, and he’s blocking a 325-pound defensive
    0:44:30 lineman.
    0:44:34 The defensive players are getting bigger and faster every year.
    0:44:38 That physicality for the running back is real.
    0:44:43 The likelihood of a running back getting through the season unscathed, no injuries, is slim
    0:44:44 to none.
    0:44:53 For a lot of teams, because of that, they go with running backs by committee.
    0:44:57 What Whitney is talking about here when he says running backs by committee is when teams
    0:45:03 substitute in multiple players throughout the game or the season to share the workload.
    0:45:07 Here again is Brian Burke, the ESPN analyst.
    0:45:10 I think that’s one of the core developments that’s affected the running back position
    0:45:15 is that teams have realized that you don’t necessarily need a great running back.
    0:45:17 What you need is a great running game.
    0:45:23 I think when most people watch football, they see the quarterback hand the ball to the running
    0:45:29 back who, when a play succeeds, he gets through the line and then keeps running and gains
    0:45:32 a bunch of yards and finally gets tackled.
    0:45:36 They think, “Oh my God, that running back is so talented.”
    0:45:39 Imagine what’s actually happening to make that run a success.
    0:45:45 Yeah, there’s going to be eight or nine blocks that are all essential.
    0:45:49 You need these kind of consecutive miracles for a run play to really work.
    0:45:54 Coaches will draw them up and it looks perfect on the whiteboard, but then in the chaos of
    0:46:00 the game, so many things have to go right for it to work, but when it does, it’s beautiful.
    0:46:04 And then the people executing those blocks, let’s just talk about the offensive line.
    0:46:09 There’s one running back who carries the ball, who succeeds, but then there are five or six
    0:46:13 other guys who are probably averaging what, around 290 pounds on the offensive line.
    0:46:16 Oh gosh, probably more now, yeah.
    0:46:20 Some football fans really do pay attention to offensive linemen, but really it’s mostly
    0:46:24 their moms, but there are a lot of them that are necessary for it to work.
    0:46:27 So what does that mean about the market?
    0:46:33 The way to think about it is the line and the blocking and the scheme are responsible
    0:46:37 for the first three or four yards of a game on a run play.
    0:46:43 And then from there on, it’s the elusiveness of the running back.
    0:46:48 It’s like a threshold system where if I have a good enough line to get a running back out
    0:46:54 to three, four, five yards, now he’s into the secondary and it’s up to him to make defenders
    0:46:58 miss their tackles and then you get these big explosive games.
    0:47:03 So if you want to improve your running game, you don’t go out and just get a great running
    0:47:04 back.
    0:47:09 I would say start with the offensive line, make sure you’re calling good plays, and
    0:47:15 then the cherry on top might be a start running back.
    0:47:20 Coming up after the break, do running backs have any chance of returning to their previous
    0:47:21 glory?
    0:47:23 Everything is cyclical, right?
    0:47:26 If you keep those bell bottoms long enough, they’ll come back.
    0:47:27 I’m Stephen Dubner.
    0:47:43 This is Freakonomics Radio, and we will come back right after this.
    0:47:48 Most of us don’t respond well when something is taken away from us.
    0:47:53 Psychologists like to talk about loss aversion, the fact that we feel more pain from loss
    0:47:57 than we feel pleasure from a gain of the same size.
    0:48:03 Well imagine being an athlete who’s been working hard since age five or six, driven
    0:48:09 by the very slim hope that you might live out your dream and become an NFL running back
    0:48:15 only to succeed and discover that your position has been downgraded.
    0:48:20 An elite running back in the NFL can still make millions of dollars, but keep in mind
    0:48:27 that, A, running back careers are short, and B, many of your teammates will be making more
    0:48:29 millions than you.
    0:48:32 So what are your options?
    0:48:34 You could stage a holdout.
    0:48:40 That’s what both Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs did in 2023, sitting out training camp after
    0:48:45 being franchise tagged by their respective teams, the New York Giants and the Las Vegas
    0:48:47 Raiders.
    0:48:51 Both of them left their teams at the end of the season and both have prospered with their
    0:48:56 new teams, Barkley with the Eagles and Jacobs with the Green Bay Packers.
    0:48:59 But a holdout doesn’t always go as planned.
    0:49:03 In 2018, Pittsburgh Steelers running back Levyon Bell, one of the best backs in the league
    0:49:09 at the time, held out for the entire season rather than play under a franchise tag.
    0:49:13 Here again is Brian Burke, the ESPN data scientist.
    0:49:21 By holding out, he cut his career short, maybe not by a full year, but a lot of the perishability
    0:49:25 is just age-based, not necessarily wear and tear-based.
    0:49:30 The effect can be very slight, but the next guy up who costs a fraction of what Levyon
    0:49:36 wants to be paid, like I would much rather pay a million dollars for 95% of what Levyon
    0:49:40 Bell is than pay $15 million for 100%.
    0:49:44 He got a big money contract with the Jets, but then he wasn’t very good there, then
    0:49:46 his career was kind of over.
    0:49:51 What would you have advised him when he was doing really well with the Steelers on his
    0:49:52 rookie contract?
    0:49:55 I would have advised him to just take what he can get.
    0:49:57 It’s outside of his control.
    0:50:02 I understand what he’s trying to accomplish, but he’s just up against reality.
    0:50:04 He’s lucky to find the Jets.
    0:50:10 If there’s one foolish team out of 32 that’s going to overpay you, then it only takes one.
    0:50:12 And it’s usually the Jets, to be honest.
    0:50:14 He found that one for sure.
    0:50:18 Bell’s agent at the time was Jeffrey Whitney, who we heard from earlier.
    0:50:23 He told us he didn’t want to discuss the Bell situation.
    0:50:28 Beyond a holdout, what other options are available to dissatisfied running backs?
    0:50:34 A few years ago, there was an attempt at creating a carveout, a running back specific labor
    0:50:39 designation proposed by a group called the International Brotherhood of Professional
    0:50:41 Running Backs.
    0:50:46 They petitioned the NLRB, the National Labor Relations Board, for what labor lawyers call
    0:50:48 a unit clarification.
    0:50:53 They argued that the unique physical demands of the running back position set them apart
    0:50:57 from other football players, and that they should therefore be allowed to break away from
    0:51:01 the NFL players’ union and negotiate on their own.
    0:51:06 A clever idea, maybe, but the NLRB rejected their request.
    0:51:11 I asked Robert Smith, the former Vikings running back, what he thought of this idea.
    0:51:19 Well, as you guys have talked about in countless episodes on Freakonomics, you have to be
    0:51:25 very careful about trying to change one variable in a system without impacting the system in
    0:51:32 a way that you haven’t anticipated, and ultimately, the market is going to decide where they value
    0:51:38 players the most and where that money is going to make the most sense for that team.
    0:51:44 So if carveouts and holdouts aren’t the answer, how about a good old-fashioned running back
    0:51:46 Zoom call?
    0:51:52 In 2023, Austin Eckler, now with the Washington Commanders, organized a Zoom with other top
    0:51:58 running backs, including Barkley, Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey, and Nick Chubb, to discuss the
    0:52:00 state of their position.
    0:52:04 “Right now, there’s really nothing we can do,” Chubb said afterward.
    0:52:06 “We’re kind of handcuffed with the situation.
    0:52:10 We are the only position that our production hurts us.
    0:52:14 If we go out there and run 2,000 yards, the next year they’re going to say, ‘You’re probably
    0:52:15 worn down.’”
    0:52:22 Still, it’s worth wondering, given the exceptional season that Saquon Barkley had with the Eagles,
    0:52:29 if he also has a great Superbowl and the Eagles beat the Chiefs, maybe the NFL will fall back
    0:52:31 in love with the running back?
    0:52:36 The last couple of years, you’re seeing a little bit of resurgence in the running game.
    0:52:37 Everything is cyclical, right?
    0:52:40 If you keep those bell bottoms long enough, they’ll come back.
    0:52:43 That again is the sports agent, Jeffrey Whitney.
    0:52:47 You ask a running back, what’s the most important duty that they have?
    0:52:50 The vast majority will be like running the football, and it’s not.
    0:52:53 It’s past protection and catching the ball, and running is part of it.
    0:52:57 I think we’re seeing some young running backs again who can do it all, can catch it, can
    0:53:00 run it, good and past protection.
    0:53:07 Let’s say you have a relative or a family friend who’s 11, 12 years old, great athlete.
    0:53:11 What would you tell that kid if they’re hoping for a long career in the NFL?
    0:53:14 Do you say, “Get the heck out of the running back position?”
    0:53:18 I tell them to become a long snapper.
    0:53:22 I tell them to become a specialist, a long snapper or a kicker.
    0:53:23 You play forever.
    0:53:25 You don’t get touched.
    0:53:27 That’s what I would advise them to do.
    0:53:35 If you’re not going to be the quarterback, be the long snapper or be the kicker.
    0:53:39 We once made an episode about the economics of the long snapper position.
    0:53:44 It’s called, “Why does the most monotonous job in the world pay $1 million?”
    0:53:51 Episode 493, if you want to listen, as for running backs, LeSean McCoy, the six-time
    0:53:55 pro bowler, was more optimistic about their future.
    0:53:57 Here he is again talking with Roland Fryer.
    0:53:59 Now, it’s a copycat league.
    0:54:03 If the Eagles are going to win the Super Bowl, they want to copycat that.
    0:54:07 You look at some of the better teams, they got good running back play.
    0:54:10 The Packers, are they even a playoff team without Josh Jacobs?
    0:54:11 I look at the Eagles.
    0:54:12 I’m going to love the Eagles.
    0:54:14 We got a lot of talent on that team.
    0:54:18 Are we the same, though, if Saquon Barker is not there?
    0:54:20 Look at the Ravens.
    0:54:22 Lamar Jackson was at MVP last year.
    0:54:23 This year, they look totally different.
    0:54:25 What’s the difference?
    0:54:26 Derek Henry.
    0:54:29 That’s why you see Lamar Jackson throwing the ball, but he’s ever thrown before.
    0:54:30 You play action.
    0:54:32 Who do I guard?
    0:54:36 I feel like the market has to go up because these players are earning these things.
    0:54:40 Owners see that because one thing about owners, they want to make their money and they want
    0:54:41 to win.
    0:54:44 There is some evidence to back up McCoy’s optimism.
    0:54:48 In recent years, the running game has recovered a bit.
    0:54:54 In 2016, only 40.6% of the plays from Scrimmage were run plays.
    0:54:55 That was a 20-year low.
    0:54:59 This year, it was 43.4% run plays.
    0:55:04 I asked Robert Smith, the former Vikings running back, what he thought of this uptick.
    0:55:07 I’d be interested to see the breakdown.
    0:55:08 Number one, is it running backs?
    0:55:10 Is it quarterbacks?
    0:55:15 You have more quarterbacks that can run the football, and they’re extremely difficult
    0:55:20 to stop, whether it’s Lamar Jackson, even Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen.
    0:55:24 You’re going to have some guys that made distort those numbers.
    0:55:29 Some of it’s selection bias because the better teams are constructed in a way where they
    0:55:34 can run the football in the red zone the way they want to, and then they have the lead,
    0:55:36 and so they’re going to get more runs that way.
    0:55:42 Is it possible that there might be somewhat of a return to the retro world of run first?
    0:55:44 I don’t think so.
    0:55:48 It goes back to the point of what it takes on a running play.
    0:55:54 A lot of people would point to Saquon Barkley and Derek Henry, and those guys are outliers.
    0:55:58 Look at what Saquon Barkley did with the Giants last year.
    0:56:00 Look what Derek Henry did with Tennessee last year.
    0:56:04 Look what they’re doing with their new teams this year with Philadelphia and the Ravens.
    0:56:07 The offensive lines are just that much better.
    0:56:12 It almost proves the point the other way that, yeah, well, of course, you put these guys
    0:56:15 behind the great offensive lines.
    0:56:21 Saquon Barkley in particular, he set a record for a number of yards before first contact
    0:56:22 this year.
    0:56:27 When you look at the performance of running backs, there’s no way that it would be significant
    0:56:32 enough where everybody would say, “Well, all we got to do is go get a Saquon Barkley.
    0:56:34 All we got to do is go get a Derek Henry.”
    0:56:39 Oh, and by the way, it didn’t work for those guys behind those other offensive lines.
    0:56:45 So you’re still going to have to spend the money to get the offensive line in place that’s
    0:56:51 going to allow those guys to have Saquon Barkley-like numbers or Derek Henry-like numbers.
    0:56:56 Brian Burke of ESPN agrees with Smith that Henry and Barkley are the exceptions that
    0:57:02 prove the rule, but his reasoning is different, and it goes back to his military training.
    0:57:04 The concept is intransitivity.
    0:57:07 There is no one superior tactic.
    0:57:08 It’s circular.
    0:57:13 The other 31 teams are all chasing pass blockers and receivers and throwers and everything,
    0:57:17 and there’s a whole bunch of run blockers and running backs left on the table.
    0:57:18 There’s inefficiencies.
    0:57:22 I’m going to go grab them, and I’m going to be the best running team they’ve ever seen,
    0:57:25 and they’re going to be unprepared for us, and that’s going to be pretty effective, but
    0:57:30 only one or two teams can get away with that.
    0:57:37 I went back to my economist friend and co-host, Roland Fryer, and I asked him if a young running
    0:57:39 back came to him for advice, what would he say?
    0:57:40 Learn how to throw.
    0:57:46 I mean, I don’t know what you want me to say.
    0:57:51 When market demand changes, particularly in something as intricate as the NFL, then certain
    0:57:57 positions will be more or less valued, and going in, people will expect that.
    0:58:01 The other option would be to say, when you do get the ball, run further.
    0:58:02 Exactly.
    0:58:03 Be more productive.
    0:58:08 And yet, the end of your Wall Street Journal piece goes like this.
    0:58:12 The economist in me likes the results, meaning the results of your analysis, finding that
    0:58:17 running backs get paid less because they’re less valuable, relatively.
    0:58:21 But you write, the kid in me hopes for a running back renaissance.
    0:58:22 That’s right.
    0:58:27 So as you know, as cool, calm, and collected, and economist acting as you are right now saying,
    0:58:31 “Come on, the market is the market,” there’s part of you emotionally that’s attached to
    0:58:32 my argument.
    0:58:33 A hundred percent.
    0:58:37 This duality has lived in me since I became an economist.
    0:58:42 But you didn’t ask Juju, the kid from Daytona, to advise the players.
    0:58:49 But as an economist, again, this is all being driven by market forces.
    0:58:54 Market forces are real, but are they unstoppable?
    0:58:59 And what happens when they meet an immovable object, or even better, an object in motion,
    0:59:05 like Saquon Barkley, who also appears to be unstoppable?
    0:59:06 We’ll find out soon.
    0:59:11 Thanks to Roland Fryer for inspiring and collaborating on this episode.
    0:59:12 He was right.
    0:59:14 It was a lot of fun.
    0:59:19 And big thanks to all our guests, LeSean McCoy, Robert Smith, Robert Turbin, Jeffrey Whitney,
    0:59:20 and Brian Burke.
    0:59:26 They all did a great job explaining a complicated game that many of us love, but which many
    0:59:29 others are often baffled by.
    0:59:32 And thanks especially to you for listening.
    0:59:35 Coming up next time on the show.
    0:59:39 Professional licensing is too onerous for certain professions.
    0:59:42 And it just makes the barriers too high.
    0:59:48 And then, for the professions that are left, medicine, nursing, law, now we need something
    0:59:50 like a licensing board.
    0:59:52 Only what we have is terrible.
    0:59:57 The legal scholar Rebecca Hall-Allensworth has just published a book called The Licensing
    0:59:58 Racket.
    1:00:02 How we decide who is allowed to work and why it goes wrong.
    1:00:05 That’s next time on the show.
    1:00:07 Until then, take care of yourself.
    1:00:09 And if you can, someone else do.
    1:00:12 Freakonomics Radio is produced by Stitcher and Renbud Radio.
    1:00:18 You can find our entire archive on any podcast app, also at Freakonomics.com, where we publish
    1:00:20 transcripts and show notes.
    1:00:23 This episode was produced by Teo Jacobs.
    1:00:28 The Freakonomics Radio network staff also includes Alina Kullman, Augusta Chapman, Dalvin
    1:00:33 Abouaji, Eleanor Osborne, Ellen Frankman, Elsa Hernandez, Gabriel Roth, Greg Rippin, Jasmine
    1:00:40 Klinger, Jeremy Johnston, John Schnarrs, Morgan Levy, Neil Coruth, Sarah Lilly, and Zach Lipinski.
    1:00:45 Our theme song is Mr. Fortune by the Hitchhikers, and our composer is Luis Guerra.
    1:00:53 Do you want to get married?
    1:00:58 I can’t marry anyone who I can’t run faster than backwards.
    1:00:59 So that’s a no.
    1:01:00 I don’t know.
    1:01:01 I’ve had a series of knee injuries.
    1:01:02 You might be able to get me now.
    1:01:07 Yeah, but I’ve had a series of birthdays.
    1:01:17 The Freakonomics Radio network, the hidden side of everything.
    1:01:17 Stitcher.
    1:01:20 (gentle music)
    1:01:22 you

    They used to be the N.F.L.’s biggest stars, with paychecks to match. Now their salaries are near the bottom, and their careers are shorter than ever. We speak with an analytics guru, an agent, some former running backs (including LeSean McCoy), and the economist Roland Fryer (a former Pop Warner running back himself) to understand why.

     

    • SOURCES:
      • Brian Burke, sports data scientist at ESPN
      • Roland Fryer, professor of economics at Harvard University
      • LeSean McCoy, former running back in the N.F.L. and co-host for Fox’s daily studio show, “The Facility”
      • Robert Smith, former running back for the Minnesota Vikings and N.F.L. analyst
      • Robert Turbin, former running back, N.F.L. analyst for CBS Sports HQ, and college football announcer
      • Jeffery Whitney, founder and president at The Sports & Entertainment Group

     

     

  • 619. How to Poison an A.I. Machine

    AI transcript
    0:00:02 (upbeat music)
    0:00:07 There’s an old saying that I’m sure you’ve heard.
    0:00:11 Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
    0:00:15 But imitation can easily tip into forgery.
    0:00:18 In the art world, there have been many talented foragers
    0:00:19 over the years.
    0:00:21 The Dutch painter Han van Maegeren,
    0:00:24 a master forager of the 20th century,
    0:00:27 was so good that his paintings were certified and sold,
    0:00:32 often to Nazis, as works by Johann Vermeer,
    0:00:34 a 17th century Dutch master.
    0:00:38 Now there is a new kind of art forgery happening
    0:00:41 and the perpetrators are machines.
    0:00:45 I recently got back from San Francisco,
    0:00:49 the epicenter of the artificial intelligence boom.
    0:00:51 I was out there to do a live show,
    0:00:53 which you may have heard in our feed,
    0:00:55 and also to attend the
    0:00:58 annual American Economic Association Conference.
    0:01:00 Everywhere you go in San Francisco,
    0:01:03 there are billboards for AI companies.
    0:01:06 The conference itself was similarly blanketed.
    0:01:07 There were sessions called
    0:01:10 Economic Implications of AI,
    0:01:13 Artificial Intelligence and Finance,
    0:01:17 and Large Language Models and Generative AI.
    0:01:19 The economist Eric Brynjolfsson
    0:01:21 is one of the leading scholars in this realm,
    0:01:24 and we borrowed him for our live show
    0:01:26 to hear his views on AI.
    0:01:29 – The idea is that AI is doing these amazing things,
    0:01:32 but we wanna do it in service of humans
    0:01:34 and make sure that we keep humans
    0:01:35 at the center of all of that.
    0:01:38 – The day after Brynjolfsson came on our show,
    0:01:40 I attended one of his talks at the conference.
    0:01:44 It was called Will AI Save Us or Destroy Us?
    0:01:47 He cited a book by the Oxford computer scientist,
    0:01:49 Michael Woldridge, called A Brief History
    0:01:51 of Artificial Intelligence.
    0:01:54 Brynjolfsson read from a list of problems
    0:01:57 that Woldridge said AI was nowhere near solving.
    0:01:59 Here are a few of them.
    0:02:02 Understanding a story and answering questions about it,
    0:02:05 human level automated translation,
    0:02:09 interpreting what is going on in a photograph.
    0:02:12 As Brynjolfsson is reading this list from the lectern,
    0:02:14 you’re thinking, wait a minute,
    0:02:17 AI has solved all those problems, hasn’t it?
    0:02:20 And that’s when Brynjolfsson gets to his punchline.
    0:02:25 The Woldridge book was published way back in 2021.
    0:02:29 The pace of AI’s advance has been astonishing.
    0:02:33 And some people expect it to supercharge our economy.
    0:02:34 The Congressional Budget Office
    0:02:37 has estimated economic growth over the current decade
    0:02:40 of around 1.5% a year.
    0:02:44 Eric Brynjolfsson thinks that AI could double that.
    0:02:46 He argues that many views of AI
    0:02:50 are either too fearful or too narrow.
    0:02:51 Too many people think of machines
    0:02:53 as just trying to imitate humans,
    0:02:54 but machines can help us do new things
    0:02:56 we never could have done before.
    0:02:58 And so we wanna look for ways
    0:03:00 that machines can compliment humans,
    0:03:02 not simply imitate or replace them.
    0:03:04 – So that sounds promising,
    0:03:07 but what about the machines that are just imitating humans?
    0:03:12 What about machines that are essentially high-tech foragers?
    0:03:14 Today on Freakinomics Radio,
    0:03:16 we will hear from someone who’s trying
    0:03:20 to thwart these machines on behalf of artists.
    0:03:22 – They take decades to hone their skills.
    0:03:24 And when that’s taken against their will,
    0:03:26 that is sort of identity theft.
    0:03:29 – Ben Zhao is a professor of computer science
    0:03:30 at the University of Chicago.
    0:03:33 He is by no means a techno pessimist,
    0:03:37 but he is not so bullish on artificial intelligence.
    0:03:40 – There is an exceptional level of hype.
    0:03:42 That bubble is, in many ways,
    0:03:44 in the middle of bursting right now.
    0:03:47 But Zhao isn’t just waiting for the bubble to burst.
    0:03:49 It’s already too late for that.
    0:03:52 – Because the harms that are happening to people
    0:03:53 is in real time.
    0:03:55 – Zhao and his team have been building tools
    0:03:57 to prevent some of those harms.
    0:03:59 When it comes to stolen art,
    0:04:03 the tool of choice is a dose of poison
    0:04:07 that Zhao slips into the AI system.
    0:04:10 There is another old saying you probably know.
    0:04:12 It takes a thief to catch a thief.
    0:04:15 How does that work in the time of AI?
    0:04:16 Let’s find out.
    0:04:21 (upbeat music)
    0:04:30 – This is Freakonomics Radio,
    0:04:33 the podcast that explores the hidden side of everything
    0:04:36 with your host, Stephen Dubner.
    0:04:38 (upbeat music)
    0:04:41 (upbeat music)
    0:04:47 – Ben Zhao and his wife, Heather Zhang,
    0:04:50 are both computer scientists at the University of Chicago,
    0:04:53 and they run their own lab.
    0:04:54 – We call it the sand lab.
    0:04:55 – Which stands for?
    0:04:58 – Security algorithms, networking, and data.
    0:05:01 Most of the work that we do has been
    0:05:03 to use technology for good,
    0:05:06 to limit the harms of abuses and attacks,
    0:05:08 and protect human beings and their values,
    0:05:12 whether it’s personal privacy or security or data,
    0:05:13 or your identity.
    0:05:15 – What’s your lab look like if we showed up?
    0:05:16 What do we see?
    0:05:17 Do we see people milling around,
    0:05:20 talking, working on monitors together?
    0:05:22 – It’s really quite anticlimactic.
    0:05:24 We’ve had some TV crews come by
    0:05:27 and they’re always expecting some sort of secret layer,
    0:05:29 and then they walk in and it’s a bunch of cubicles.
    0:05:32 Our students all have standing desks.
    0:05:35 The only wrinkle is that I’m at one of the standing desks
    0:05:36 in the room.
    0:05:37 I don’t usually sit in my office.
    0:05:39 I sit next to them, a couple of cubicles over,
    0:05:42 so that they don’t get paranoid about me
    0:05:43 watching their screen.
    0:05:45 – When there’s a tool that you’re envisioning,
    0:05:48 or developing, or perfecting, is it all hands on deck,
    0:05:50 or are the teams relatively small?
    0:05:51 How does that work?
    0:05:53 – Well, there’s only a handful of students
    0:05:54 in my lab to begin with.
    0:05:56 So all hands on deck is like,
    0:05:59 what, seven or eight PhD students plus us.
    0:06:01 Typically speaking, the projects are a little bit smaller,
    0:06:03 just because we’ve got multiple projects going on,
    0:06:06 and so people are partitioning their attention
    0:06:09 and work energy at different things.
    0:06:11 – I read on your webpage, Ben, you write,
    0:06:14 “I work primarily on adversarial machine learning
    0:06:17 “and tools to mitigate harms of generative AI models
    0:06:19 “against human creatives.”
    0:06:22 So that’s an extremely compelling bio line.
    0:06:25 Like if that was a dating profile, and I were in AI,
    0:06:27 I would say, whoa, swiping hard left.
    0:06:30 But if I’m someone concerned about these things,
    0:06:32 oh my goodness, you’re the dream date.
    0:06:34 So can you unpack that for me?
    0:06:36 – Aversarial machine learning is a shorthand
    0:06:39 for this interesting research area
    0:06:42 at the intersection of computer security
    0:06:43 and machine learning.
    0:06:47 Anything to do with attacks, defenses, privacy concerns,
    0:06:49 surveillance, all these subtopics
    0:06:51 as related to machine learning and AI.
    0:06:55 That’s what I’ve been working on mostly for the last decade.
    0:06:59 For more than two years, we’ve been focused
    0:07:03 on how the misuse and abuse of these AI tools
    0:07:08 can harm real people and trying to build research tools
    0:07:11 and technology tools to try to reduce some of that harm
    0:07:14 to protect regular citizens and, in particular,
    0:07:16 human creatives like artists and writers.
    0:07:18 – Before he got into his current work,
    0:07:21 Protecting Creatives, Zhao made a tool
    0:07:24 for people who are worried that Siri or Alexa
    0:07:26 are eavesdropping on them, which,
    0:07:28 now that I’ve said their names, they may be.
    0:07:32 He called this tool the bracelet of silence.
    0:07:33 – So that’s for my D&D days.
    0:07:35 – Yeah. (laughs)
    0:07:38 – It’s a fun little project we had done prior work
    0:07:42 in ultrasonics and modulation effects
    0:07:44 when you have different microphones
    0:07:48 and how they react to different frequencies of sound.
    0:07:50 One of the effects that people have been observing
    0:07:55 is that you can make microphones vibrate
    0:07:57 in a frequency that they don’t want to.
    0:08:00 We figured out that we could build a set
    0:08:02 of little transducers, you can imagine,
    0:08:05 a fat bracelet, sort of like cyberpunk kind of thing
    0:08:09 with, I think, 24 or 12, I forget the exact number,
    0:08:11 little transducers that are hooked onto the bracelet
    0:08:12 like gemstones.
    0:08:14 – The one I’m looking at looks like 12.
    0:08:16 I also have to say, Ben, it’s pretty big.
    0:08:18 It’s a pretty big bracelet to wear around
    0:08:20 just to silence your Alexa or HomePod.
    0:08:22 – Well, hey, you gotta do what you gotta do
    0:08:25 and hopefully other people will make it much smaller, right?
    0:08:26 We’re not in the production business.
    0:08:29 What it does is basically it radiates
    0:08:32 a carefully attuned pair of ultrasonic pulses
    0:08:35 in such a way that commodity microphones
    0:08:38 anywhere within reach will, against their will,
    0:08:42 begin to vibrate at a normal audible frequency.
    0:08:44 They basically generate the sound
    0:08:46 that’s necessary to jam themselves.
    0:08:47 When we first came out with this thing,
    0:08:49 a lot of people were very excited,
    0:08:52 privacy advocates, public figures who were very concerned,
    0:08:54 not necessarily about their own Alexa,
    0:08:56 but the fact that they had to walk in
    0:08:58 to public places all the time,
    0:09:01 you’re really trying to prevent that hidden microphone
    0:09:03 eavesdropping on a private conversation.
    0:09:05 – Okay, that’s the bracelet of silence.
    0:09:08 I’d like you to describe another privacy tool
    0:09:10 you built, the one called Fox.
    0:09:12 – Fox is a fun one.
    0:09:15 In 2019, I was brainstorming about
    0:09:18 some dangers that we have in the future.
    0:09:19 And this is not even gendered AI.
    0:09:21 This is just sort of classification
    0:09:22 and facial recognition.
    0:09:24 One of the things that we came up with
    0:09:27 was this idea that AI is gonna be everywhere
    0:09:29 and therefore anyone can train any model
    0:09:32 and therefore people can basically train models of you.
    0:09:34 At the time, it was not about deep fakes,
    0:09:35 it was about surveillance.
    0:09:38 And what would happen if people just went online,
    0:09:40 took your entire internet footprint,
    0:09:42 which of course today is massive,
    0:09:44 scraped all your photos from Facebook and Instagram
    0:09:47 and LinkedIn and then build this incredibly accurate
    0:09:48 facial recognition model of you
    0:09:52 without your knowledge, much less permission.
    0:09:55 And we built this tool that basically allows you
    0:09:57 to alter your selfies, your photos,
    0:10:01 in such a way that it made you look more like someone else
    0:10:02 than yourself.
    0:10:04 – Does it make you look more like someone else
    0:10:06 in the actual context that you care about
    0:10:08 or only in the version when it’s being scraped?
    0:10:10 – That’s right, only in the version
    0:10:13 when it’s being used to build a model against you.
    0:10:15 But the funny part was that we built this technology,
    0:10:19 we wrote the paper and on the week of submission,
    0:10:21 this was 2020, we were getting ready
    0:10:24 to submit that paper, I remember it distinctly.
    0:10:26 That was when Cashmere Hill at the New York Times
    0:10:29 came out with her story on Clearview AI.
    0:10:31 And that was just mind blowing
    0:10:33 because I had been talking to our students
    0:10:37 for months about having to build for this dark scenario
    0:10:39 and literally, here’s the New York Times saying,
    0:10:42 “Yeah, this is today and we are already in it.”
    0:10:43 That was disturbing on many fronts,
    0:10:45 but it did make writing the paper a lot easier.
    0:10:48 We just cited the New York Times article and said,
    0:10:49 “Here it is already.”
    0:10:52 – Clearview AI is funded how?
    0:10:53 – It was a private company.
    0:10:55 I think it’s still private.
    0:10:57 It’s gone through some ups and downs.
    0:10:58 Since the New York Times article,
    0:11:00 they had to change their revenue stream.
    0:11:03 They no longer take third party customers.
    0:11:07 Now they only work with government and law enforcement.
    0:11:09 – Okay, so Fox is the tool you invented
    0:11:12 to fight that kind of facial recognition abuse.
    0:11:15 Is Fox an app or software that anyone can use?
    0:11:19 – Fox was designed as a research paper and algorithm,
    0:11:21 but we did produce a little app.
    0:11:23 I think it went over a million downloads.
    0:11:25 We stopped keeping track of it,
    0:11:28 but we stopped a mailing list and that mailing list
    0:11:30 is actually how some artists reach out.
    0:11:38 – When Ben Zhao says that some artists reached out,
    0:11:41 that was how he started down his current path,
    0:11:43 defending visual artists.
    0:11:45 A Belgian artist named Kim Van Dunne,
    0:11:48 who’s known for her illustrations of fantasy creatures,
    0:11:51 sent Zhao an invitation to a town hall meeting
    0:11:52 about AI artwork.
    0:11:54 It was hosted by a Los Angeles organization
    0:11:57 called Concept Art Association,
    0:12:00 and it featured representatives from the U.S. Copyright Office.
    0:12:03 What was the purpose of this meeting?
    0:12:04 Artists had been noticing
    0:12:07 that when people searched for their work online,
    0:12:11 the results were often AI knockoffs of their work.
    0:12:13 It went even further than that.
    0:12:16 Their original images had been scraped from the internet
    0:12:18 and used to train the AI models
    0:12:21 that can generate an image from a text prompt.
    0:12:24 You’ve probably heard of these text-to-image models,
    0:12:27 maybe even used some of them.
    0:12:29 There is Dali from OpenAI,
    0:12:30 Imagine from Google,
    0:12:32 Image Playground from Apple,
    0:12:35 Stable Diffusion from Stability AI,
    0:12:37 and Mid Journey from the San Francisco Research Lab
    0:12:39 of the same name.
    0:12:42 – These companies will go out and they’ll run scrapers,
    0:12:44 little tools that go online
    0:12:48 and basically suck up any semblance of imagery,
    0:12:51 especially high-quality imagery from online websites.
    0:12:53 – In the case of an artist like Van Dunne,
    0:12:56 this might include her online portfolio,
    0:12:58 which is something you want to be easily seen
    0:13:00 by the people you wanna see it,
    0:13:04 but you don’t want sucked up by an AI.
    0:13:06 – It would download those images
    0:13:08 and run them through an image classifier
    0:13:10 to generate some set of labels,
    0:13:13 and then take that pair of images and their labels,
    0:13:15 and then see that into the pipeline
    0:13:18 to some text-image model.
    0:13:20 – So Ben, I know that some companies,
    0:13:22 including OpenAI have announced programs
    0:13:26 to let content creators opt out of AI training.
    0:13:28 How meaningful is that?
    0:13:29 – Well, opting out assumes a lot of things.
    0:13:34 It assumes benign acquiescence from the technology makers.
    0:13:36 – Benign acquiescence meaning
    0:13:38 they have to actually do what they say they’re gonna do?
    0:13:39 – Yeah, exactly.
    0:13:41 Opting out is toothless
    0:13:43 because you can’t prove it in machine learning,
    0:13:45 because you’re not gonna be able to do it
    0:13:47 in your own business.
    0:13:49 Even if someone completely went against their word
    0:13:51 and said, “Okay, here’s my opt-out list,”
    0:13:54 and then immediately trained on all their content,
    0:13:55 you just lack the technology to prove it.
    0:13:57 And so, what’s to stop someone
    0:13:59 from basically going back on their word
    0:14:02 when we’re talking about billions of dollars at stake?
    0:14:04 Really, you’re hoping and praying
    0:14:05 someone’s being nice to you.
    0:14:08 (gentle music)
    0:14:12 – So Ben Zhao wanted to find a way
    0:14:15 of being either forged or stolen
    0:14:17 by these mimicry machines.
    0:14:19 – A big part of their misuse
    0:14:22 is when they assume the identity of others.
    0:14:24 So this idea of right of publicity
    0:14:27 and the idea that we own our faces, our voices,
    0:14:30 our identity, our skills, and work product,
    0:14:34 that is very much a core of how we define ourselves.
    0:14:36 For artists, it’s the fact that they take decades
    0:14:37 to hone their skill
    0:14:41 and to become known for a particular style.
    0:14:43 So when that’s taken against their will
    0:14:44 without their permission,
    0:14:47 that is a type of identity theft, if you will.
    0:14:49 – In addition to identity theft,
    0:14:52 there can be the theft of a job, a livelihood.
    0:14:53 – Right now, many of these models
    0:14:56 are being used to replace human creatives.
    0:14:58 If you look at some of the movie studios,
    0:15:01 the gaming studios, or publishing houses,
    0:15:04 artists and teams of artists are being laid off.
    0:15:07 One or two remaining artists are being told, “Here,
    0:15:09 “you have a budget, here’s mid-journey,
    0:15:12 “I want you to use your artistic vision and skill
    0:15:15 “to basically craft these AI images
    0:15:18 “to replace the work product of the entire team
    0:15:20 “who’s now been laid off.”
    0:15:24 – So Zhao’s solution was to poison the system
    0:15:25 that was causing this trouble.
    0:15:27 – Poison is sort of a technical term
    0:15:29 in the research community.
    0:15:32 Basically, it means manipulating training data
    0:15:34 in such a way to get AI models
    0:15:36 to do something perhaps unexpected,
    0:15:38 perhaps more to your goals
    0:15:41 than the original trainers intended to.
    0:15:43 – They came up with two poisoning tools,
    0:15:46 one called Glaze, the other Nightshade.
    0:15:49 – Glaze is all about making it harder
    0:15:52 to target and mimic individual artists.
    0:15:56 Nightshade is a little bit more far-reaching.
    0:15:59 Its goal is primarily to make training
    0:16:03 on internet-scraped data more expensive than it is now,
    0:16:05 perhaps more expensive
    0:16:07 than actually licensing legitimate data,
    0:16:09 which ultimately is our hope
    0:16:11 that this would push some of these AI companies
    0:16:15 to seek out legitimate licensing deals with artists
    0:16:18 so that they can properly be compensated.
    0:16:21 – Can you just talk about the leverage and power
    0:16:22 that these AI companies have
    0:16:26 and how they’ve been able to amass that leverage?
    0:16:28 – We’re talking about companies and stakeholders
    0:16:31 who have trillions in market cap,
    0:16:35 the richest companies on the planet by definition.
    0:16:36 So that completely changes the game.
    0:16:40 It means that when they want things to go a certain way,
    0:16:42 whether it’s lobbyists on Capitol Hill,
    0:16:47 whether it’s media control and inundating journalists
    0:16:50 and running ginormous national expos
    0:16:53 and trade shows of whatever they want,
    0:16:55 nothing is off limits.
    0:16:58 That completely changes the power dynamics
    0:17:00 of what you’re talking about.
    0:17:02 The closest analogy I can draw on
    0:17:07 is in the early 2000s, we had music piracy.
    0:17:10 Folks who are old enough remember that was a free-for-all.
    0:17:12 People could just share whatever they wanted
    0:17:15 and of course there were questions of the legality
    0:17:18 and copyright violations and so on,
    0:17:21 but there it was very, very different from what it is today.
    0:17:25 Those who are with the power and the money and the control
    0:17:27 are the copyright holders.
    0:17:30 So the outcome was very clear.
    0:17:32 – Well, it took a while to get there, right?
    0:17:34 Napster really thrived for several years
    0:17:35 before it got shut down.
    0:17:36 – Right, exactly.
    0:17:38 – But in that case, you’re saying that the people
    0:17:41 who not necessarily generated but owned or licensed
    0:17:45 the content were established and rich enough themselves
    0:17:48 so that they could fight back against the intruders.
    0:17:51 – Exactly, you had armies of lawyers.
    0:17:53 When you consider that sort of situation
    0:17:56 and how it is now, it’s the complete polar opposite.
    0:17:59 – Meaning it’s the bad guys who have all the lawyers.
    0:18:01 – Well, I wouldn’t say necessarily bad guys,
    0:18:04 but certainly the folks who in many cases
    0:18:08 are pushing profit motives that perhaps bring harm
    0:18:11 to less represented minorities who don’t have the agency,
    0:18:13 who don’t have the money to hire their own lawyers
    0:18:15 and who can’t defend themselves.
    0:18:19 – I mean, that has become kind of an ethic
    0:18:22 of a lot of business in the last 20, 30 years,
    0:18:23 especially coming on the Silicon Valley.
    0:18:26 You know, you think about how Travis Kalanick
    0:18:29 used to talk about Uber, like it’s much easier
    0:18:31 to just go into a big market like New York
    0:18:35 where something like Uber would be illegal
    0:18:37 and just let it go, let it get established
    0:18:39 and then let the city come and sue you
    0:18:41 after it’s established.
    0:18:45 So better to ask for forgiveness than permission.
    0:18:47 – These companies are basically exploiting the fact
    0:18:50 that we know lawsuits and enforcement of new laws
    0:18:51 are gonna take years.
    0:18:55 And so the idea is, let’s take advantage of this time
    0:18:56 and before these things catch up,
    0:18:58 we’re already gonna be established.
    0:19:00 We already are gonna be essential
    0:19:03 and we already are gonna be making billions.
    0:19:05 And then we’ll worry about the legal cost
    0:19:07 because really, to many of them,
    0:19:09 the legal cost and the penalties that are involved,
    0:19:12 billions of dollars, is really a drop in the bucket.
    0:19:17 – Indeed, the biggest tech firms in the world
    0:19:20 are all racing one another to the top of the AI mountain.
    0:19:22 They’ve all invested heavily in AI
    0:19:26 and the markets have so far at least rewarded them.
    0:19:29 The share prices of the so-called magnificent seven stocks,
    0:19:34 Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Tesla
    0:19:37 rose more than 60% in 2024.
    0:19:40 And these seven stocks now represent 33%
    0:19:43 of the value of the S&P 500.
    0:19:46 This pursuit of more and better AI
    0:19:48 will have knock-on effects too.
    0:19:51 Consider their electricity needs.
    0:19:53 One estimate finds that building the data centers
    0:19:57 to train and operate the new breed of AI models
    0:20:01 will require 60 gigawatts of energy capacity.
    0:20:05 That’s enough to power roughly a third of the homes in the US.
    0:20:07 In order to generate all that electricity
    0:20:11 and to keep their commitments to clean energy,
    0:20:14 open AI, Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft
    0:20:17 have all invested big in nuclear power.
    0:20:19 Microsoft recently announced a plan
    0:20:22 to help revive Three Mile Island.
    0:20:24 If you want to learn more about the potential
    0:20:27 for a nuclear power renaissance in the US,
    0:20:28 we made an episode about that.
    0:20:33 Number 516, called Nuclear Power Isn’t Perfect,
    0:20:35 is it good enough?
    0:20:38 Meanwhile, do a handful of computer scientists
    0:20:39 at the University of Chicago
    0:20:43 have any chance of slowing down this AI juggernaut?
    0:20:44 Coming up after the break,
    0:20:48 we will hear how Ben Zhao’s poison works.
    0:20:52 We will actually generate a nice-looking cow
    0:20:55 with nothing particularly distracting in the background,
    0:20:58 and the cow is staring you right in the face.
    0:20:58 I’m Stephen Dubner.
    0:21:00 This is Freakonomics Radio.
    0:21:01 We’ll be right back.
    0:21:16 In his computer science lab at the University of Chicago,
    0:21:20 Ben Zhao and his team have created a pair of tools
    0:21:23 designed to prevent artificial intelligence programs
    0:21:26 from exploiting the images created by human artists.
    0:21:29 These tools are called Glaze and Nightshade.
    0:21:32 They work in similar ways, but with different targets.
    0:21:35 Glaze came first.
    0:21:38 Glaze is all about how do we protect individual artists
    0:21:41 so that a third party does not mimic them
    0:21:43 using some local model.
    0:21:47 It’s much less about these model training companies
    0:21:50 than it is about individual users who say,
    0:21:53 “Gosh, I like so-and-so’s art, but I don’t want to pay them,
    0:21:56 so in fact, what I’ll do is I’ll take my local copy
    0:22:00 of a model, I’ll fine-tune it on that artist’s artwork,
    0:22:03 and then have that model try to mimic them and their style
    0:22:07 so that I can ask a model to output artistic works
    0:22:09 that look like human art from that artist,
    0:22:11 except I don’t have to pay them anything.”
    0:22:13 And how about Nightshade?
    0:22:17 What it does is it takes images, it alters them in such a way
    0:22:20 that they basically look like they’re the same,
    0:22:25 but to a particular AI model that’s trying to train on this,
    0:22:27 what it sees are the visual features
    0:22:30 that actually associate it with something entirely different.
    0:22:34 For example, you can take an image of a cow
    0:22:36 eating grass in a field,
    0:22:37 and if you apply it to Nightshade,
    0:22:41 perhaps that image instead teaches
    0:22:43 not so much the bovine cow features,
    0:22:48 but the features of a 1940s pickup truck.
    0:22:50 What happens then is that as that image goes
    0:22:52 into the training process,
    0:22:57 that label of this is a cow will become associated
    0:22:59 in the model that’s trying to learn about
    0:23:01 what does a cow look like?
    0:23:05 It’s gonna read this image, and in its own language,
    0:23:09 that image is gonna tell it that a cow has four wheels,
    0:23:12 a cow has a big hood and a fender and a trunk.
    0:23:14 Nightshade images tend to be much more potent
    0:23:17 than usual images,
    0:23:20 so that even when they’ve just seen a few hundred of them,
    0:23:22 they are willing to throw away everything
    0:23:25 that they’ve learned from the hundreds of thousands
    0:23:27 of other images of cows,
    0:23:30 and declare that its understanding has now adapted
    0:23:31 to this new understanding,
    0:23:35 that in fact cows have a shiny bumper and four wheels.
    0:23:36 Once that has happened,
    0:23:40 someone asking the model, give me a cow eating grass,
    0:23:44 the model might generate a car with a pile of hay on top.
    0:23:47 – The underlying process of creating this AI poison
    0:23:50 is, as you might imagine, quite complicated,
    0:23:52 but for an artist who’s using nightshade,
    0:23:56 who wants to sprinkle a few invisible pixels of poison
    0:24:00 on their original work, it’s pretty straightforward.
    0:24:02 – There’s a couple of parameters about intensity,
    0:24:04 how strongly you wanna change the image.
    0:24:06 You set the parameters, you hit go,
    0:24:09 and out comes an image that may look a little bit different.
    0:24:11 Sometimes there are tiny little artifacts
    0:24:13 that if you blow it up, you’ll see.
    0:24:16 But in general, it basically looks like your old image,
    0:24:19 except with these tiny little tweaks everywhere,
    0:24:21 in such a way that the AI model,
    0:24:24 when it sees it, will see something entirely different.
    0:24:25 – That entirely different thing
    0:24:27 is not chosen by the user.
    0:24:30 It’s nightshade that decides whether your image of a cow
    0:24:35 becomes a 1940s pickup truck versus, say, a cactus.
    0:24:37 And there’s a reason for that.
    0:24:41 The concept of poisoning is that you are trying to convince
    0:24:43 the model that’s training on these images
    0:24:46 that something looks like something else entirely, right?
    0:24:49 So we’re trying, for example, to convince a particular model
    0:24:52 that a cow has four tires and a bumper.
    0:24:55 But in order for that to happen, you need numbers.
    0:24:58 You don’t need millions of images to convince it,
    0:24:59 but you need a few hundred.
    0:25:01 And of course, the more, the merrier.
    0:25:05 And so you want everybody who uses nightshade around the world,
    0:25:07 whether they’re photographers or illustration
    0:25:12 or graphic artists, you want them all to have the same effect.
    0:25:15 So whenever someone paints a picture of a cow,
    0:25:18 takes a photo of a cow, draws an illustration of a cow,
    0:25:19 draws a clip art of a cow,
    0:25:22 you want all those nightshaded effects
    0:25:25 to be consistent in their target.
    0:25:27 In order to do that, we had to take control
    0:25:31 of what the target actually is, ourselves, inside the software.
    0:25:34 If you gave users that level control,
    0:25:37 then chances are people would choose very different things.
    0:25:39 Some people might say, “I want my cow to be a cow.
    0:25:41 I want my cow to be the sun rising.”
    0:25:44 If you were to do that, the poison would not be as strong.
    0:25:47 And what do the artificial intelligence companies think
    0:25:50 about this nightshade being thrown at them?
    0:25:54 A spokesperson for OpenAI recently described data poison
    0:25:57 as a type of abuse.
    0:25:59 AI researchers previously thought
    0:26:02 that their models were impervious to poisoning attacks.
    0:26:05 But Ben Zhao says that the AI training models
    0:26:07 are actually quite easy to fool.
    0:26:10 His free nightshade app has been downloaded
    0:26:11 over two million times,
    0:26:13 so it’s safe to say that plenty of images
    0:26:15 have already been shaded.
    0:26:19 But how can you tell if nightshade is actually working?
    0:26:22 You probably won’t see the effects of nightshade.
    0:26:23 If you see it in the wild,
    0:26:27 models give you wrong answers to things that you’re asking for.
    0:26:28 But the people who are creating these models
    0:26:32 are not foolish, they are highly trained professionals.
    0:26:36 So they’re gonna have lots of testing on any of these models.
    0:26:38 We would expect that effects of nightshade
    0:26:42 would actually be detected in the model training process.
    0:26:43 It’ll become a nuisance.
    0:26:46 And perhaps what really will happen
    0:26:48 is that certain versions of models post-training
    0:26:53 will be detected to have certain failures inside them.
    0:26:55 And perhaps they’ll have to roll them back.
    0:26:59 So I think really that’s more likely to cause delays
    0:27:02 and more likely to cause costs
    0:27:04 of these model training processes to go up.
    0:27:08 The AI companies, they really have to work on millions,
    0:27:10 potentially billions of images.
    0:27:12 So it’s not necessarily the fact
    0:27:15 that they can’t detect nightshade on a particular image.
    0:27:17 It’s the question of can they detect nightshade
    0:27:22 on a billion images in a split second with minimal cost?
    0:27:24 Because any one of those factors that goes up
    0:27:27 significantly will mean that their operation
    0:27:29 becomes much, much more expensive.
    0:27:32 And perhaps it is time to say,
    0:27:34 well, maybe we’ll license artists
    0:27:37 and get them to give us legitimate images
    0:27:40 that won’t have these questionable things inside them.
    0:27:43 – Is it the case that your primary motivation here
    0:27:45 really was an economic one
    0:27:48 of getting producers of labor, in this case artists,
    0:27:50 simply to be paid for their work,
    0:27:52 that their work was being stolen?
    0:27:54 – Yeah, I mean, it really boils down to that.
    0:27:57 I came into it not so much thinking about economics
    0:28:01 as I was just seeing people that I respected
    0:28:04 and had affinity for be severely harmed
    0:28:05 by some of this technology.
    0:28:08 In whatever way that they can be protected,
    0:28:09 that’s ultimately the goal.
    0:28:12 In that scenario, the outcome would be licensing
    0:28:14 so that they can actually maintain a lively hood
    0:28:17 and maintain the vibrancy of that industry.
    0:28:18 – When you say these are people you respect
    0:28:20 and have affinity for,
    0:28:23 I’m guessing you being an academic computer scientist
    0:28:25 is that you also have respect and affinity for
    0:28:28 and I’m sure you know many people in the AI machine learning
    0:28:31 community on the firm side though, right?
    0:28:32 – Yes, yes, of course.
    0:28:34 Colleagues and former students in that space.
    0:28:37 – And how do they feel about Ben Jow?
    0:28:38 – It’s quite interesting, really.
    0:28:41 I go to conferences the same as I usually do
    0:28:45 and many people resonate with what we’re trying to do.
    0:28:48 We’ve gotten a bunch of awards and such from the community.
    0:28:50 As far as folks who are actually employed
    0:28:52 by some of these companies,
    0:28:55 some of them I had to say appreciate our work.
    0:28:57 They may or may not have the agency
    0:28:59 to publicly speak about it,
    0:29:00 but lots of private conversations
    0:29:02 where people are very excited.
    0:29:05 I will say that yeah, there’s been some cooling effects,
    0:29:07 burn bridges with some people.
    0:29:10 I think it really comes down to how you see your priorities.
    0:29:13 It’s not so much about where employment lies,
    0:29:16 but it really is about how personally you see
    0:29:19 the value of technology versus the value of people.
    0:29:23 And oftentimes it’s a very binary decision.
    0:29:26 People tend to go one way or the other rather hard.
    0:29:29 I think most of these bigger decisions, acquisitions,
    0:29:32 strategy and whatnot are largely
    0:29:34 in the hands of executives way up top.
    0:29:36 These are massive corporations
    0:29:40 and many people are very much aware of some of the stakes
    0:29:42 and perhaps might disagree
    0:29:45 with some of the technological stances that are being taken,
    0:29:47 but everybody has to make a living.
    0:29:51 Big Tech is one of the best ways to make a living.
    0:29:53 Obviously they compensate people very well.
    0:29:55 I would say there’s a lot of pressure there as well.
    0:29:57 We just had that recent news item
    0:30:00 that the young whistleblower from OpenAI
    0:30:02 just tragically passed away.
    0:30:05 Zhao is talking here about Suchir Balaji,
    0:30:08 a 26 year old former researcher at OpenAI,
    0:30:11 the firm best known for creating chat GPT.
    0:30:14 Balaji died by apparent suicide
    0:30:16 in his apartment in San Francisco.
    0:30:18 He had publicly charged OpenAI
    0:30:21 with potential copyright violations
    0:30:24 and he left the company because of ethical concerns.
    0:30:27 Whistleblowers like that are incredibly rare
    0:30:30 because the risks that you’re taking on
    0:30:34 when you publicly speak out against your former employer,
    0:30:35 that is tremendous courage.
    0:30:38 That is an unbelievable act.
    0:30:39 It’s a lot to ask.
    0:30:43 I feel that we don’t speak so much about ethics
    0:30:44 in the business world.
    0:30:46 I know they teach it in business schools
    0:30:50 but my feeling is that by the time you’re teaching
    0:30:51 the ethics course in the business school,
    0:30:55 it’s because things are already in tough shape.
    0:30:57 Many people obviously have strong moral
    0:30:59 and ethical makeups,
    0:31:03 but I feel there is an absence of courage.
    0:31:06 And since you just named that word,
    0:31:08 you said you have to have an enormous amount of courage
    0:31:09 to stand up for what you think may be right.
    0:31:13 And since there is so much leverage in these firms,
    0:31:16 as you noted, I’m curious if you have any message
    0:31:19 to the young employee or the soon to be graduate
    0:31:22 who says, yeah, sure, I would absolutely love
    0:31:25 to go work for an AI firm because it’s bleeding edge,
    0:31:27 it pays well, it’s exciting and so on.
    0:31:30 But they’re also feeling like it’s contributing
    0:31:33 to a pace of technology
    0:31:35 that is too much for humankind right now.
    0:31:36 What would you say to that person?
    0:31:38 How would you ask them to examine
    0:31:40 if not their soul or something,
    0:31:42 at least their courage profile?
    0:31:43 – Yeah, what a great question.
    0:31:45 I mean, it may not be surprising,
    0:31:47 but as a computer science professor,
    0:31:48 I actually have these kind of conversations
    0:31:50 relatively often.
    0:31:53 This past quarter, I taught many second year
    0:31:56 and third year computer science majors.
    0:31:58 And many of them came up to me in office hours
    0:32:01 and asked very similar kind of questions.
    0:32:04 They said, look, I really want to push back
    0:32:05 on some of these harms.
    0:32:08 On the other hand, look at these job opportunities.
    0:32:10 Here’s this great golden ticket to the future
    0:32:12 and what can you do?
    0:32:13 It’s fascinating, I don’t blame them
    0:32:16 if they’d make any particular decision,
    0:32:18 but I applaud them for even being aware
    0:32:21 of some of the issues that I think many in the media
    0:32:23 and many in Silicon Valley certainly
    0:32:25 have trouble recognizing.
    0:32:28 There is a level of ground truth underneath all this,
    0:32:30 which is that these models are limited.
    0:32:33 There is an exceptional level of hype,
    0:32:35 like we’ve never seen before.
    0:32:38 That bubble is in many ways
    0:32:40 in the middle bursting right now.
    0:32:41 – What do you say to that?
    0:32:43 – There’s been many papers published on the fact
    0:32:47 that these generative AI models are well at their end
    0:32:48 in terms of training data.
    0:32:51 To get better, you need something like double
    0:32:54 the amount of data that has ever been created by humanity.
    0:32:57 And you’re not gonna get that by buying Twitter
    0:33:00 or by licensing from Reddit or New York Times or anywhere.
    0:33:03 You’ve seen now recent reports about how Google
    0:33:07 and OpenAI are having trouble improving upon their models.
    0:33:09 It’s common sense, they’re running out of data
    0:33:12 and no amount of scraping or licensing will fix that.
    0:33:17 – Bloomberg News recently reported
    0:33:20 that OpenAI, Google and Anthropic
    0:33:21 have all had trouble releasing
    0:33:23 their next generation AI models
    0:33:26 because of this plateauing effect.
    0:33:29 Some commentators say that AI growth overall
    0:33:31 may be hitting a wall.
    0:33:35 In response to that, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman tweeted,
    0:33:37 “There is no wall.
    0:33:40 Ben Zhao is in the wall camp.”
    0:33:43 – And then of course, just the fact that there are very
    0:33:47 few legitimate revenue generating applications
    0:33:49 that will even come close to compensating
    0:33:52 for the amount of investment that VCs
    0:33:54 and these companies are pouring in.
    0:33:56 Obviously I’m biased doing what I do,
    0:33:59 but I thought about this problem for quite some time.
    0:34:02 And honestly, these are great interpolation machines.
    0:34:04 These are great mimicry machines,
    0:34:07 but there’s only so many things that you can do with them.
    0:34:09 They are not going to produce entire movies,
    0:34:13 entire TV shows, entire books to anywhere near the value
    0:34:15 that humans will actually want to consume.
    0:34:17 And so yeah, they can disrupt
    0:34:19 and they can bring down the value of a bunch of industries,
    0:34:22 but they are not going to actually generate much revenue
    0:34:23 in and of themselves.
    0:34:25 I see that bubble bursting.
    0:34:27 And so what I say to these students oftentimes
    0:34:29 is that things will take their course
    0:34:32 and you don’t need to push back actively.
    0:34:35 All you need to do is to not get swept along with the hype.
    0:34:38 When the tide turns, you will be well positioned.
    0:34:40 You will be better positioned than most
    0:34:42 to come out of it having a clear head
    0:34:45 and being able to go back to the fundamentals of
    0:34:46 why did you go to school?
    0:34:47 Why did you go to University of Chicago
    0:34:50 and all the education that you’ve undergone
    0:34:52 to use your human mind
    0:34:55 because it will be shown that humans will be better
    0:34:57 than AI will ever pretend to be.
    0:35:01 – Coming up after the break,
    0:35:04 why isn’t Ben Zhao out in the private sector
    0:35:06 trying to make his billions?
    0:35:07 I’m Stephen Dubner.
    0:35:09 This is Freakin’omics Radio.
    0:35:10 We’ll be right back.
    0:35:25 It’s easy to talk about the harms posed
    0:35:27 by artificial intelligence,
    0:35:30 but let’s not ignore the benefits.
    0:35:31 That’s where we started this episode,
    0:35:34 hearing from the economist Eric Brynjolfsson.
    0:35:35 If you think about something like
    0:35:38 the medical applications alone,
    0:35:40 AI is plainly a major force.
    0:35:44 And just to be witness to a revolution of this scale
    0:35:46 is exciting.
    0:35:48 Its evolution will continue in ways
    0:35:50 that of course we can’t predict.
    0:35:52 But as the University of Chicago computer scientist,
    0:35:55 Ben Zhao has been telling us today,
    0:35:58 AI growth may be slowing down
    0:36:01 and the law may be creeping closer
    0:36:02 to some of these companies too.
    0:36:05 Open AI and Microsoft are both being sued
    0:36:07 by the New York Times.
    0:36:10 Anthropic is fighting claims from Universal Music
    0:36:13 that it misused copyrighted lyrics.
    0:36:15 And related to Zhao’s work,
    0:36:18 a group of artists are suing stability AI,
    0:36:20 mid-journey and deviant art
    0:36:24 for copyright infringement and trademark claims.
    0:36:27 But Zhao says that the argument about AI and art
    0:36:30 is about more than just intellectual property rights.
    0:36:33 Art is interesting when it has intention,
    0:36:36 when there’s meaning and context.
    0:36:38 So when AI tries to replace that,
    0:36:40 it has no context and meaning.
    0:36:44 Art replicated by AI, generally speaking, loses the point.
    0:36:46 It is not about automation.
    0:36:48 I think that is a mistaken analogy
    0:36:49 that people will oftentimes bring up.
    0:36:50 They say, well, you know,
    0:36:53 what about the horse and buggy and the automobile?
    0:36:56 No, this is actually not about that at all.
    0:36:59 AI does not reproduce human art at a faster rate.
    0:37:04 What AI does is it takes past samples of human art,
    0:37:07 shakes it in a kaleidoscope and gives you a mixture
    0:37:10 of what has already existed before.
    0:37:13 So when you talk about the scope of the potential problems,
    0:37:17 everything from the human voice, the face, pieces of art,
    0:37:20 basically anything ever generated
    0:37:22 that can be reproduced in some way,
    0:37:25 it sounds like you are no offense.
    0:37:27 Tiny little band of Don Quixote is there
    0:37:30 in the middle of the country,
    0:37:33 tilting at these massive global windmills
    0:37:36 of artificial intelligence and technology,
    0:37:38 overlordship and the amount of money being invested
    0:37:42 right now in AI firms is really almost unimaginable.
    0:37:45 They could probably start up 1,000 labs like yours
    0:37:47 within a week to crush you.
    0:37:51 Not that I’m encouraging that, but I’m curious.
    0:37:53 On the one hand, you said, well,
    0:37:55 there is a bubble coming because of,
    0:37:57 let’s call it data limitations.
    0:38:00 On the other hand, when there’s an incentive
    0:38:02 to get something for less or for nothing
    0:38:05 and to turn it into something else that’s profitable
    0:38:06 in some way, whether for crime
    0:38:10 or legitimate seeming purposes, people are going to do that.
    0:38:14 And I’m just curious how hopeless or hopeful
    0:38:16 you may feel about this kind of effort.
    0:38:18 – What’s interesting about computer security
    0:38:21 is that it’s not necessarily about numbers.
    0:38:23 If it’s a brute force attack,
    0:38:25 I can run through all your pen numbers
    0:38:27 and it doesn’t matter how ingenious they are,
    0:38:30 I will eventually come up with the right one.
    0:38:33 But for many instances, it is not about brute force
    0:38:34 and resource riches.
    0:38:36 So yeah, I am hopeful.
    0:38:39 We’re looking at vulnerabilities that we consider
    0:38:41 to be fundamental in some of these models
    0:38:44 and we’re using them to slow down the machine.
    0:38:47 I don’t necessarily wake up in the morning thinking,
    0:38:50 oh yeah, I’m gonna topple open AI or Google
    0:38:51 or anything like that.
    0:38:52 That’s not necessarily the goal.
    0:38:56 – I see this as more of a process in motion.
    0:39:00 This hype is a storm that will eventually blow over.
    0:39:01 And how I see my role in this
    0:39:05 is not so much to necessarily stop the storm.
    0:39:07 I’m more of you will a giant umbrella.
    0:39:11 I’m trying to cover as many people as possible
    0:39:13 and shield them from the short-term harm.
    0:39:15 – What gives you such confidence
    0:39:16 that the storm will blow over
    0:39:19 or that there will be maybe more umbrellas
    0:39:21 other than what you pointed out
    0:39:24 as the data limitations in the near term.
    0:39:25 And maybe you know better than all of us,
    0:39:28 maybe data limitations and computing limitations
    0:39:30 are such that the fears
    0:39:32 that many people have will never come true.
    0:39:35 But it doesn’t seem like momentum is moving in your favor.
    0:39:37 It seems it’s moving in their favor.
    0:39:39 – I would actually disagree, but that’s okay.
    0:39:40 We can have that discussion, right?
    0:39:41 – Look, you’re the guy that knows stuff.
    0:39:43 I’m just asking the questions.
    0:39:44 I don’t know anything about this.
    0:39:47 – No, no, I think this is a great conversation to have
    0:39:51 because back in 2022 or early 2023,
    0:39:52 when I used to talk to journalists,
    0:39:54 the conversation was very, very different.
    0:39:57 Conversation was always, when is AGI coming?
    0:40:00 You know, what industries will be completely useless
    0:40:01 in a year or two?
    0:40:03 It was never the question of like,
    0:40:05 are we gonna get return on investment
    0:40:08 for these billions and trillions of dollars?
    0:40:10 Are these applications going to be legit?
    0:40:13 So even in the year and a half since then,
    0:40:14 the conversation has changed materially
    0:40:17 because the truth has come out.
    0:40:19 These models are actually having trouble
    0:40:22 generating any sort of realistic value.
    0:40:24 I’m not saying that they’re completely useless.
    0:40:25 There’s certain scientific applications
    0:40:28 or daily applications where it is handy,
    0:40:32 but it is far, far less than what people had hoped them to be.
    0:40:35 And so yeah, you know, how do I believe it?
    0:40:36 Part of this is hubris.
    0:40:38 I’ve been a professor for 20 years.
    0:40:40 I’ve been trained or I’ve been training myself
    0:40:42 to believe in myself in a way.
    0:40:44 Another answer to this question is that
    0:40:47 it really is irrelevant because the harms
    0:40:49 are happening to people in real time.
    0:40:53 And so it’s not about will we eventually win
    0:40:55 or will this happen eventually in the end?
    0:40:56 It’s the fact that people’s lives
    0:40:59 are being affected on a daily basis
    0:41:01 and I can make a difference in that
    0:41:03 than that is worthwhile in and of itself
    0:41:04 regardless of the outcome.
    0:41:09 – If I were a cynic or maybe a certain kind of operative,
    0:41:15 I might think that maybe Ben Zhao is the poison.
    0:41:19 Maybe in fact you’re a bot talking down the industry
    0:41:22 both in intention and in capabilities.
    0:41:24 And who knows for what reason,
    0:41:25 maybe you’re even shorting the industry
    0:41:27 in the markets or something.
    0:41:29 I kind of doubt that’s true,
    0:41:31 but you know, we’ve all learned to be suspicious
    0:41:33 of just about everybody these days.
    0:41:35 Where would you say you fall on the spectrum
    0:41:40 of makers versus hardcore activists, let’s say?
    0:41:42 ‘Cause I think in every realm throughout history,
    0:41:44 whenever there’s a new technology,
    0:41:47 there are activists who overreact
    0:41:50 and often protest against new technologies
    0:41:52 in ways that in retrospect are revealed
    0:41:55 to have been either short-sighted or self-interested.
    0:41:57 So that’s a big charge I’m putting on you.
    0:41:59 Persuade me that you were neither short-sighted
    0:42:01 nor self-interested, please.
    0:42:03 – Sure, very interesting.
    0:42:05 Okay, let me unpack that a little bit there.
    0:42:08 The thing that allows me to do the kind of work
    0:42:11 that I do now, I recognize as quite a privilege.
    0:42:16 The position in being a senior tenure professor,
    0:42:18 and honestly, I don’t have many of the pressures
    0:42:20 that some of my younger colleagues do.
    0:42:22 – You have your own lab at the University of Chicago
    0:42:23 with your wife.
    0:42:27 When I read about this, I think how did you get the funding?
    0:42:28 Did you have some kind of blackmail material
    0:42:30 on the UChicago budget people?
    0:42:33 – No, I mean, all of our grants are quite public.
    0:42:35 And I’m pretty sure that I’m not
    0:42:38 the most well-funded professor in the department.
    0:42:40 I run a pretty regular lab.
    0:42:43 We write a few grants, but it’s nothing or shaking.
    0:42:47 It’s just what we turn our time towards, that’s all.
    0:42:49 There’s very little that drives me these days
    0:42:53 outside of just wanting my students to succeed.
    0:42:55 I don’t have the pressures of needing
    0:42:58 to establish a reputation or explain to colleagues
    0:43:00 who I am and why I do what I do.
    0:43:03 So in that sense, I almost don’t care.
    0:43:05 In terms of self-interest, none of these products
    0:43:09 have any money attached to them in any way, shape, or form.
    0:43:13 And I’ve tried very, very hard to keep it that way.
    0:43:14 There’s no startup.
    0:43:17 There’s no hidden profit motive or revenue here.
    0:43:19 So that simplifies things for me.
    0:43:21 – When you say that you don’t want
    0:43:24 to commercialize these tools,
    0:43:26 I assume the University of Chicago
    0:43:28 is not pressing you to do so?
    0:43:31 – No, the university always encourages entrepreneurship.
    0:43:33 They always encourage licensing,
    0:43:35 but they certainly have no control over what we do
    0:43:37 or don’t do with our technology.
    0:43:39 This is sort of the reality of economics
    0:43:41 and academic research.
    0:43:44 We as a lab have a stream of PhD students
    0:43:46 that come through and we train them.
    0:43:48 They do research along the way
    0:43:50 and then they graduate and then they leave.
    0:43:53 For things like Fox where this was the idea,
    0:43:55 here’s the tool, here’s some code.
    0:43:56 We put that out there,
    0:43:58 but ultimately we don’t expect to be maintaining
    0:44:00 that software for years to come.
    0:44:02 We just don’t have the resources.
    0:44:05 – That sounds like a shame if you come up with a good tool.
    0:44:08 – Well, the idea behind academic research is always that
    0:44:10 if you have the good ideas and you demonstrate it,
    0:44:12 then someone else will carry it across the finish line,
    0:44:15 whether that’s a startup or a research lab elsewhere,
    0:44:18 but somebody with resources who sees that need
    0:44:20 and understands it will go ahead
    0:44:21 and produce that physical tool
    0:44:23 or make that software and actually maintain it.
    0:44:25 – Since you’re not going to commercialize
    0:44:27 or turn it into a firm,
    0:44:29 let’s say you continue to make tools
    0:44:31 that continue to be useful
    0:44:34 and that they scale up and up and up.
    0:44:37 And let’s say that your tools become an integral part
    0:44:40 of the shield against villainous technology,
    0:44:41 let’s just call it.
    0:44:45 Are you concerned that it will outgrow you
    0:44:48 and will need to be administered by other academics
    0:44:50 or maybe governments and so on?
    0:44:52 – You know, at a high level, I think that’s great.
    0:44:54 I think if we get to that point,
    0:44:56 that’ll be a very welcome problem to have.
    0:44:58 We are in the process of exploring perhaps
    0:45:01 what a nonprofit organization would look like
    0:45:02 ’cause that would sort of make some
    0:45:05 of these questions transparent, it would.
    0:45:06 – That’s what Elon Musk once said
    0:45:08 about open AI, I believe, correct?
    0:45:11 – Well, yeah, very different type of nonprofit,
    0:45:12 I would argue.
    0:45:15 I’m more interested in being just the first person
    0:45:17 to walk down a particular path
    0:45:18 and encouraging others to follow.
    0:45:21 So I would love it if we were not the only technology
    0:45:22 in the space.
    0:45:24 Every time I see one of these other research papers
    0:45:28 that wars to protect human creatives, I plot all that.
    0:45:31 In order for AI and human creativity
    0:45:33 to coexist in the future,
    0:45:35 they have to have a complementary relationship.
    0:45:40 And what that really means is that AI needs human work product
    0:45:42 or images or text in order to survive.
    0:45:47 So they need humans and humans really need to be compensated
    0:45:48 for this work that they’re producing.
    0:45:51 Otherwise, if human artistry dies out,
    0:45:52 then AI will die out
    0:45:54 because they’re gonna have nothing new to learn on
    0:45:57 and they’re just gonna get stale and fall apart.
    0:46:00 – I’m feeling a strong Robin Hood vibe here.
    0:46:02 Stealing from the rich, giving to the poor.
    0:46:04 But also what you’re describing,
    0:46:07 your defense mechanism, it’s like you are a bow,
    0:46:08 but you don’t have an arrow.
    0:46:09 But if they shoot an arrow at you,
    0:46:11 then you can take the arrow and shoot it back at them
    0:46:12 and hit them where it really hurts.
    0:46:13 – Over the last couple of years,
    0:46:16 I’ve been practicing lots of fun analogies.
    0:46:20 Barb Wire is one, the large Doberman in your backyard.
    0:46:22 One particular funny one is where the hot sauce
    0:46:24 that you put on your lunch.
    0:46:27 So if that unscrupulous coworker steals your lunch,
    0:46:28 repeatedly they get a tummy ache.
    0:46:30 – But wait a minute, you have to eat your lunch too.
    0:46:32 That doesn’t sound very good.
    0:46:34 – Well, you eat the portion that you know is good
    0:46:36 and then you leave out some stuff that–
    0:46:38 – Got it, got it.
    0:46:41 Can you maybe envision or describe
    0:46:44 what might be a fair economic solution here,
    0:46:47 a deal that would let the AI models get what they want
    0:46:49 without the creators being ripped off?
    0:46:51 – Boy, that’s a bit of a loaded question
    0:46:53 because honestly, we don’t know.
    0:46:56 It really comes down to how these models are being used.
    0:46:58 Ultimately, I think what people want
    0:47:02 is creative content that’s crafted by humans.
    0:47:06 In that sense, the fair system would be generative AI systems
    0:47:08 that stayed out of the creative domain
    0:47:12 that continue to let human creatives do what they do best
    0:47:16 to create really truly imaginative ideas and visuals
    0:47:18 and then use generative AI for domains
    0:47:20 where it is more reasonable.
    0:47:22 For example, conversational chatbots.
    0:47:24 Seemed like a reasonable use for them
    0:47:26 as long as they don’t hallucinate.
    0:47:30 – I’m just curious why you care about artists.
    0:47:33 Most people, at least in positions of power,
    0:47:36 don’t seem to go to bat for people who make stuff.
    0:47:38 And when I say most people in positions of power,
    0:47:41 I would certainly include most academic economists.
    0:47:44 So of all the different labor forces
    0:47:46 that are being affected by AI,
    0:47:49 there are retail workers, people in manufacturing,
    0:47:53 medicine, on and on and on, why go to bat for artists?
    0:47:54 – Certainly I know what it’s not
    0:47:59 because I’m not an artist, not particularly artistic.
    0:48:03 Some people can say there’s an inkling of creativity
    0:48:06 in what we do, but it’s not nearly the same.
    0:48:10 I guess what I will say is creativity is inspiring.
    0:48:12 Artists are inspiring.
    0:48:14 Whenever I think back to what I know of art
    0:48:17 and how I appreciate art, I think back to college,
    0:48:22 you know, I went to Yale and I remember many cold Saturday
    0:48:25 mornings, I would walk out and there’s piles of snow
    0:48:27 and everything would be super quiet
    0:48:31 and I would take a short walk over to the Yale Art Gallery
    0:48:33 and it was amazing.
    0:48:37 I would be able to wander through halls of masterpieces.
    0:48:41 Nobody there except me and maybe a couple of security guards.
    0:48:46 It’s always been inspiring to me how people can see
    0:48:49 the world so differently through the same eyes,
    0:48:50 through the same physical mechanism.
    0:48:54 That is how I get a lot of my research done,
    0:48:58 is I try to see the world differently and it gives me ideas.
    0:49:02 So when I meet artists and when I talk to artists
    0:49:04 to see what they can do, to see the imagination
    0:49:09 that they have at their disposal that I see nowhere else,
    0:49:12 you know, creativity, it’s the best of humanity.
    0:49:13 What else is there?
    0:49:16 (upbeat music)
    0:49:18 – That was Ben Zhao.
    0:49:21 He helps run the Sand Lab at the University of Chicago.
    0:49:25 You can see a lot of their work on the Sand Lab website.
    0:49:28 While you’re online, you may also wanna check out
    0:49:31 a new museum scheduled to open this year in Los Angeles.
    0:49:35 It’s called Dataland and it is the world’s first museum
    0:49:39 devoted to art that is generated by AI.
    0:49:42 Maybe I will run into Ben Zhao there someday
    0:49:44 and maybe I’ll run into you too.
    0:49:48 I will definitely be in LA soon on February 13th.
    0:49:51 We are putting on Freakonomics Radio Live
    0:49:53 at the Gorgeous E-Bell Theater.
    0:49:57 Tickets are at freakonomics.com/liveshows.
    0:49:59 I hope to see you there.
    0:50:01 Coming up next time on the show,
    0:50:05 are you ready for some football?
    0:50:07 The Super Bowl is coming up and we will be talking
    0:50:11 about one of the most undervalued positions in the game,
    0:50:13 the running back.
    0:50:15 – Why are my boys being paid less
    0:50:18 when these quarterbacks who aren’t nearly as tough
    0:50:20 as running backs are being paid more?
    0:50:21 – But wait a minute.
    0:50:24 Running backs used to be the game’s superstars
    0:50:26 and they were paid accordingly.
    0:50:27 What happened?
    0:50:30 – This is a classic example of multivariate causation.
    0:50:32 – Okay, that doesn’t sound very exciting,
    0:50:35 but the details are, I promise.
    0:50:40 We will hear from the eggheads, the agents and the players.
    0:50:43 – You’re telling me that you’d be a great difference maker
    0:50:46 and I can’t get paid the right value for my position.
    0:50:49 – And we’ll ask whether this year’s NFL season
    0:50:52 has marked a return to glory for the running back.
    0:50:54 That’s next time on the show.
    0:50:56 Until then, take care of yourself
    0:50:58 and if you can, someone else too.
    0:51:01 Freakonomics Radio is produced by Stitcher and Renbud Radio.
    0:51:05 You can find our entire archive on any podcast app
    0:51:07 also at freakonomics.com,
    0:51:09 where we publish transcripts and show notes.
    0:51:12 This episode was produced by Theo Jacobs.
    0:51:14 The Freakonomics Radio network staff
    0:51:17 also includes Alina Coleman, Augusta Chapman,
    0:51:20 Dalvin Abouaghi, Eleanor Osborne, Ellen Frankman,
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    0:51:31 Our theme song is “Mr. Fortune” by the Hitchhikers
    0:51:34 and our composer is Luis Guerra.
    0:51:36 As always, thank you for listening.
    0:51:39 (dramatic music)
    0:51:43 When I don’t have a shredder around
    0:51:45 and I need to put something in the trash
    0:51:47 that I don’t want anyone to see,
    0:51:48 I just put some ketchup on it.
    0:51:49 (camera clicks)
    0:51:53 (electronic music)
    0:51:55 – The Freakonomics Radio Network,
    0:51:57 the hidden side of everything.
    0:52:00 (upbeat music)
    0:52:01 – Stitcher.
    0:52:04 (gentle music)
    0:52:14 [BLANK_AUDIO]

    When the computer scientist Ben Zhao learned that artists were having their work stolen by A.I. models, he invented a tool to thwart the machines. He also knows how to foil an eavesdropping Alexa and how to guard your online footprint. The big news, he says, is that the A.I. bubble is bursting.

     

    • SOURCES:
      • Erik Brynjolfsson, professor of economics at Stanford University
      • Ben Zhao, professor of computer science at the University of Chicago

     

     

  • Is San Francisco a Failed State? (And Other Questions You Shouldn’t Ask the Mayor)

    AI transcript
    0:00:05 Hey there, it’s Stephen Dubner.
    0:00:10 Every once in a while, we get out of our recording studio and take Freakonomics Radio on the
    0:00:11 road.
    0:00:16 We recently put on a live show in San Francisco at the historic Sidney Goldstein Theater.
    0:00:19 If you were in the audience that night, thank you.
    0:00:20 We had a blast.
    0:00:21 Hope you did too.
    0:00:25 If you were not there, this bonus episode is for you.
    0:00:29 It is a recording of that show edited down to podcast length.
    0:00:34 We have got another live show coming up in Los Angeles on February 13.
    0:00:40 LA has been through so much with the wildfires, so much destruction and death and fear.
    0:00:44 All of us who love that place are eager for its recovery.
    0:00:48 And we are hoping to do our tiny part just by showing up.
    0:00:51 A portion of our ticket sales will go to Relief Efforts.
    0:00:53 I hope you’ll join us if you can.
    0:00:58 You can get tickets at freakonomics.com/liveshows, one word.
    0:01:01 It’s Thursday, February 13th, in Los Angeles.
    0:01:05 One of our guests will be the inimitable Ari Emanuel.
    0:01:10 Okay, here now is what happened in San Francisco.
    0:01:12 As always, thanks for listening.
    0:01:38 .
    0:01:43 There are so many of you.
    0:01:44 This does not seem like a fair fight.
    0:01:47 There’s one of me and all of you.
    0:01:55 I’m sure it’ll work out okay, but the hecklers begin.
    0:01:59 So in case it’s not clear, this is not what we typically do.
    0:02:01 I assume most of you know Freakonomics Radio.
    0:02:07 You wouldn’t be here otherwise.
    0:02:10 The show that we make is the opposite of a live show.
    0:02:14 The show we make is really I’m a writer and it’s a writer’s show.
    0:02:20 We come up with an idea, we do a bunch of research, we figure out what kind of people
    0:02:25 to interview, then we prepare for the interviews, we do a lot of interviews.
    0:02:30 We start to put together a script, a draft script, we rewrite it, we start to mix the
    0:02:31 tape.
    0:02:35 It takes many, many, many, many hours to make one episode and you know that’s the way we
    0:02:36 like it.
    0:02:39 At night, we’ve got like an hour and a half or two hours.
    0:02:40 That’s it.
    0:02:43 We have no pause button, we have no reconsideration.
    0:02:46 It’s just us here together.
    0:02:49 So if you’re up for that, I think we’re going to have a very good time together.
    0:02:57 That’s the intention at least.
    0:02:59 When I was a kid, I was very shy.
    0:03:01 I still am, truthfully.
    0:03:05 I had another problem in addition to shyness, which was that I really was curious.
    0:03:07 I wanted to find out stuff.
    0:03:11 In the old days, it took a lot of effort to find out stuff.
    0:03:18 You’d have to go to the library or you would have to ask an adult and when you’re shy,
    0:03:21 asking a stranger questions was not so easy.
    0:03:27 My solution to all of that was to become a journalist, where you’re, okay, I’ve never
    0:03:34 heard journalism applauded before, so thank you.
    0:03:39 So becoming a writer, becoming a journalist, really solved both problems because all of
    0:03:44 a sudden you have permission to ask anybody any question and you’re getting to find out
    0:03:45 stuff all the time.
    0:03:50 Now, in the old days, writing for newspapers and magazines and I wrote books for a while,
    0:03:53 it was old fashioned fun, physical, analog labor.
    0:03:59 You’d go out with people, might be writing a piece about one person over many weeks or
    0:04:03 months, you’d follow them around, might be a whole scene and you’d come back after those
    0:04:08 weeks or months with a whole bunch of cassette tapes that you would then transcribe yourself
    0:04:09 as a writer.
    0:04:10 That’s how you got to really know the material.
    0:04:15 You’d come back with all these notebooks full of stuff and then you would sit down to sift
    0:04:18 it and sort and write and I loved that.
    0:04:20 I loved every single piece of it.
    0:04:22 I still have all my notebooks.
    0:04:24 I still have all those cassette tapes.
    0:04:29 It was very, very labor intensive, but it was wonderful labor and my favorite part of
    0:04:32 it was always just hanging out with the people.
    0:04:37 A lot of it honestly was really boring, but the parts that were exciting were so exciting
    0:04:38 when you really learned something.
    0:04:43 It makes me think of what the physicist Richard Feynman, who’s been a hero of mine for a long
    0:04:47 time, what Feynman called the pleasure of finding things out.
    0:04:50 It was just so pleasurable that I never stopped.
    0:04:56 What we do now with the radio show may seem different because it’s audio and yada yada,
    0:04:58 but it’s really the same thing.
    0:05:04 Coming up with ideas, putting yourself in position to have interesting conversations with people
    0:05:10 who are smart or weird or maybe all of the above.
    0:05:16 I think if we were to go back 20 or 30 years to when digital everything was really starting
    0:05:23 to explode, I don’t know if any of us would have thought that we’d have so much communication
    0:05:27 as we do and so little conversation.
    0:05:34 I feel like because everyone is able to publish and be their own bullhorn, that in a way we’ve
    0:05:38 sort of forgotten how to talk to each other.
    0:05:45 By now I’ve probably interviewed, I don’t know, 5,000, 10,000 people in my life and
    0:05:52 I can’t think of a single one where afterward I didn’t feel like my brain grew a little
    0:05:55 bit or my heart grew a little bit.
    0:05:59 It’s an unbelievably valuable human trait that we overlook, this ability of ours to
    0:06:04 have language and have a conversation where we can learn about each other, move each other
    0:06:05 and so on.
    0:06:07 Really tonight, that’s what I want to do.
    0:06:09 I just want to have some good conversations.
    0:06:15 We’ve lined up some people I think are going to be excellent for you and me to hear about.
    0:06:16 We’ll get started.
    0:06:21 Does anyone have any complaints before we begin?
    0:06:27 I get your emails, I know who you are.
    0:06:29 We’re going to have some good conversations.
    0:06:33 Our first one, I think you will enjoy quite a bit.
    0:06:34 Would you please welcome our first guest?
    0:06:41 She is the mayor of San Francisco, London Breed.
    0:06:49 How’s things?
    0:06:57 Well, freedom is fast approaching right now, so it’s almost like I dropped thousands of
    0:06:59 pounds.
    0:07:00 So you call it freedom.
    0:07:04 For those who don’t know, you’ve got just a few days left.
    0:07:06 You must have some wild s*** planned.
    0:07:13 Oh, yes, pull out those phones because you guys are going to see a different mayor breed.
    0:07:17 Let me start with, I hate to say it, a lot of people think of San Francisco as kind of
    0:07:18 a failed state.
    0:07:24 Not quite Haiti or Libya, but the stuff they see, they see the worst of the word.
    0:07:25 That’s what the media does.
    0:07:27 The media is really good at that.
    0:07:30 And then it becomes a political weapon as well.
    0:07:32 I mean, COVID was really hard.
    0:07:38 You personally seem to have done the shutdown, handled that really well, aggressively, early
    0:07:39 and so on.
    0:07:41 But tell me how the city is recovering.
    0:07:47 Well, it has been a rough ride, but I’m really excited about where we are now as a city.
    0:07:52 The city has been more fun than it has been in a long time because you said more fun.
    0:07:57 We have closed down streets to have night markets, first Thursdays, events, entertainment
    0:08:01 zones, because we need some joy.
    0:08:05 The city has been a place of no, you can’t do fun things.
    0:08:10 And we turned it into a city of yes, we have helped over 20,000 people exit homelessness.
    0:08:17 We have had a significant decline in our crime rate and one of the lowest homicide rates
    0:08:18 since the 1960s.
    0:08:23 I mean, this is the work that we’re doing, but we also know there’s more to be done.
    0:08:24 It’s a major city.
    0:08:29 Cities have challenges, but we are finally in a place where we build the capacity.
    0:08:30 We change the laws.
    0:08:32 We made the hard decisions.
    0:08:34 And I just believe that the best is yet to come.
    0:08:38 The biggest thing that we do struggle with is the perception.
    0:08:42 So we need people to come to San Francisco or people who live here to tell their own
    0:08:44 story of San Francisco.
    0:08:49 So driving in, I mean, it’s a cliche, like, you know, you talk to a taxi driver, Uber
    0:08:52 driver, you drive in from the airport, and I realize I’m not really seeing the city.
    0:08:54 You didn’t take a waymo where you didn’t have anybody to talk to?
    0:08:58 I have to say, I’m a little bit scared of the waymos so far.
    0:08:59 How do you feel about them?
    0:09:01 Well, it’s interesting.
    0:09:07 They become a tourist attraction in our city, but you just said people do a lot of communication,
    0:09:08 but not conversation.
    0:09:10 So I don’t know if I’m going to take a waymo.
    0:09:11 Because you want someone to talk to you?
    0:09:12 I want somebody to talk to you.
    0:09:13 Yeah.
    0:09:14 All right.
    0:09:15 Well, stick with me.
    0:09:16 Okay.
    0:09:21 I will say driving in from the airport, what I saw mostly were billboards for AI companies,
    0:09:23 which I don’t see in New York.
    0:09:28 And then I get to the tenderloin and I feel like I’m in a Hieronymus Bosch painting.
    0:09:31 It is wild and it’s heartbreaking.
    0:09:36 I know it’s been there forever and I know it predated you, but, you know, I just wonder
    0:09:37 how much the perception hurt you running.
    0:09:38 Okay.
    0:09:40 Let me just ask the question I really want to ask.
    0:09:41 Why did you lose?
    0:09:43 You stood for reelection.
    0:09:45 I’m going to say this with a lot of pride.
    0:09:49 There was over $20 million spent on my race to unseat me.
    0:09:50 Is this all Levi’s money?
    0:09:53 I don’t know where the money came from, but there was a lot of money.
    0:09:58 I think that things were not happening as quickly as people wanted to see them happen.
    0:10:04 And that is something I take full responsibility for because this government and how bureaucracy
    0:10:07 works, it is not designed to make things move quickly.
    0:10:10 When you say bureaucracy, do you mean mostly the board of supervisors?
    0:10:15 I think I do mean a lot of the board of supervisors.
    0:10:16 And now this new mayor is getting a good board.
    0:10:20 I’m just so mad about it.
    0:10:23 People say, oh my goodness, your response to the pandemic was amazing.
    0:10:26 And yeah, it’s because we cut bureaucracy.
    0:10:32 We had emergency authority to make decisions without the bullcrap that gets in the way
    0:10:35 of trying to make things move.
    0:10:39 And then we go back to a post-pandemic world after we come out of that.
    0:10:45 We needed to be able to act quickly, dealing with the rise in fentanyl overdose tests and
    0:10:48 the emptying of our shelter beds and the need to build more houses.
    0:10:53 We had all these things we needed to do and could not move fast enough.
    0:10:58 And the good news is we work very hard to build our capacity to make the necessary changes,
    0:11:03 to use technology, and to really help combat these issues.
    0:11:07 And think about it, our crime rates have consistently been dropping.
    0:11:11 I mean, even car break-ins are lower than 10,000.
    0:11:13 And this is a major city.
    0:11:14 It hasn’t been that low since 2015.
    0:11:19 Let’s talk about the major city thing, because I come from New York.
    0:11:20 And things happen.
    0:11:22 Things happen in all major cities.
    0:11:26 But that’s my problem is I don’t think of you as a major city.
    0:11:36 I think of you as a very, very nice…
    0:11:39 Now you understand why I don’t do this live thing.
    0:11:44 But don’t you think of San Francisco as a major city?
    0:11:50 Okay, Stephen, you better watch out what restaurant you eat in.
    0:11:52 Somebody might put something in your food.
    0:11:57 Well, that’s not a nice way to make friends with the out-of-towners.
    0:11:58 But no.
    0:12:00 But where was I now?
    0:12:03 Major city, I’m going to skip that question.
    0:12:05 You lost some population during COVID.
    0:12:10 I did read you say something about how you had fewer people die here per capita than
    0:12:12 any other big city in America.
    0:12:16 But I was wondering, okay, but wait a minute, wait, save you applause because you’ll boom
    0:12:17 in a second.
    0:12:23 But I wondered if that’s just because everybody left and they were dying elsewhere.
    0:12:25 Listen, let me just say this.
    0:12:26 We shut down early.
    0:12:29 We made really hard decisions.
    0:12:30 It was not easy.
    0:12:34 And the people in San Francisco really came together to try and save lives.
    0:12:38 I was really proud of how people went grocery shopping for folks.
    0:12:43 Folks showed up to work in the hospitals and people sacrificed to make that happen.
    0:12:44 And so I’m very proud of that.
    0:12:49 A lot of people did leave and they were talking a lot of crap when they were leaving San Francisco.
    0:12:51 But you know what?
    0:12:58 Many of those people are back because this is $34 billion in venture capitalist investment
    0:13:02 of the top 20 AI, artificial intelligence companies in the world, eight are right here
    0:13:09 in San Francisco, 5 million square feet of office lease sign in San Francisco, 70% of
    0:13:13 the new office space is by new companies in AI.
    0:13:17 People are coming back to San Francisco because they know this is where they’re going to
    0:13:21 be successful despite what people try to say about the city.
    0:13:23 It is still where people want to be.
    0:13:24 I’m really glad to hear that.
    0:13:29 I do love your city by saying I didn’t think it was a major city mean to imply that I didn’t
    0:13:30 love it.
    0:13:31 But it has less than a million people.
    0:13:32 So I totally understand that.
    0:13:33 This makes me think.
    0:13:39 I live in New York and we lived there during the 9/11 attack and it was scary, very different
    0:13:40 event obviously in COVID.
    0:13:44 And I have a sister who lives in Buffalo who called us up and she was very worried about
    0:13:45 our family.
    0:13:49 She said, Steve, you know, you should really pick up and my kids were very young, pick
    0:13:51 up and move to Buffalo.
    0:13:52 And I didn’t even think it was so terrible what I said.
    0:13:59 I said, Beth, you know, I’d rather die in New York and live in Buffalo.
    0:14:04 And to be fair, Buffalo is a wonderful major city.
    0:14:05 So let me ask about you.
    0:14:09 You grew up hard in public housing, raised by your grandmother.
    0:14:10 All kinds of stuff around.
    0:14:11 There was crime.
    0:14:16 There was drugs, your own family suffered from all that.
    0:14:20 And the thing that I really want to know about you, you know, we have this idea when there
    0:14:25 are people in the public eye, we just think they’re invincible.
    0:14:30 Everybody always has challenges and it’s how they overcome them that really defines us.
    0:14:38 So with you, I can’t figure out how you got to where you got with the odds that you faced.
    0:14:44 And I’m not asking you for advice necessarily or if you have a superpower, but can you just
    0:14:50 describe what it took not just to survive, but to thrive with those barriers.
    0:14:52 There are so many different things that happen.
    0:14:56 Last time when we talked on the podcast, I talked about my brother who’s incarcerated
    0:14:59 and how we both went to the public school system.
    0:15:02 He didn’t even graduate from high school and I did.
    0:15:07 It’s hard to finger point where the issue happened, but I feel really honored and grateful
    0:15:14 to God for just the strength to overcome so many of those obstacles and to get my education
    0:15:20 and to want to go back to the community and make a difference.
    0:15:21 Obviously you worked hard.
    0:15:26 Obviously you were disciplined and all that, but how much do you think is just temperament?
    0:15:31 I don’t know if I would say that I have the best temperament because I have a temper, but
    0:15:36 I will say that I have remained true to who I am as a person.
    0:15:41 But the whole reason why I got involved in public service in the first place is because
    0:15:49 a violent crime in my community where people were dying, where our homicide rates were significant
    0:15:57 in the 90s and it is just amazing to see us in a better place than we’ve ever been before.
    0:16:01 And I have always said it is always the will of the voters that I’m going to respect and
    0:16:10 be grateful that I had the opportunity to serve.
    0:16:14 Do you feel that you were treated differently than the mayors who came before you who came
    0:16:16 from more traditional backgrounds?
    0:16:19 I think so a little bit, yeah.
    0:16:23 I didn’t talk about it much, but when the mayor calls you and not return the mayor’s
    0:16:29 call, that was pretty offensive or to sit in a meeting with me and to look at my chief
    0:16:32 of staff and talk to him and not talk to me directly.
    0:16:34 How do you handle that in the moment?
    0:16:37 In the moment, I’m like, hi, I’m right here.
    0:16:42 Nice smile and I’m the one who makes the decision and then I move on from it.
    0:16:46 I didn’t come from money, I come from the hood, I didn’t have built-in relationships
    0:16:52 with a lot of these people, but I did do what I could to try and reach out to people and
    0:16:56 develop those relationships and make sure that my door was always open.
    0:17:00 So even if someone opposed me, which, you know, I had a member on the board of supervisors
    0:17:03 who was just the worst person to work with.
    0:17:04 That person’s name was what again?
    0:17:11 Well, here’s the interesting part is somehow once that person decided they wanted to work
    0:17:16 with me, we developed a tight, really good working relationship.
    0:17:21 And so what I’ve always said is, look, I may not like you, I don’t have to like you, but
    0:17:22 I will work with you.
    0:17:24 I’ve heard you say that.
    0:17:25 I really like that.
    0:17:30 I want to steal that because I think most of us, it’s hard to do when you don’t like
    0:17:33 someone, but you need to work productively with them.
    0:17:34 So what do you do?
    0:17:35 Do you picture him?
    0:17:36 Nate, what do you do?
    0:17:43 No, I just think when I wake up in the morning, I’m the mayor of San Francisco.
    0:17:51 Like I’m the mayor of San Francisco.
    0:17:52 So come right in.
    0:17:57 Look, sometimes it shows on my face, but I’m a grown up here.
    0:18:03 And I have to be better than somebody who’s petty because you don’t particularly care
    0:18:04 for someone.
    0:18:09 I mean, you know what’s in your head, but the business of the people is the most important.
    0:18:13 I can’t just support or work with the people who voted for me.
    0:18:17 I can’t just talk to the people that I want to talk to.
    0:18:22 And it’s what anybody in elected office should be if you are here for the right reasons to
    0:18:24 get the business done for the people.
    0:18:29 And I’ve been able to accomplish a lot because I’ve always kept the door open.
    0:18:34 As we speak, you have a few days left in office, and I want to know what you’re planning next
    0:18:35 if you have plans.
    0:18:40 And I also want to know the Democrats got crushed this year coast to coast.
    0:18:44 And there’s an election in about a month from now for DNC chair.
    0:18:47 Was that something that you’ve poked around at by any chance?
    0:18:55 So under the law, I can’t look at other opportunities until I actually leave office.
    0:19:02 And so I will be having a lot of meetings once I leave office because I need a job.
    0:19:07 Let’s just pretend that you’re elected DNC chair in a month, whatever it is.
    0:19:12 What would you say, considering the shellacking that the party had, what’s the thing or two
    0:19:17 that you think the Dems need to do to put themselves in position to win some more elections?
    0:19:22 I think that the biggest thing we need to do is cultivate young, new talent.
    0:19:25 I mean, my race is a perfect example.
    0:19:31 I am a perfectly capable, qualified Democrat who runs a major city.
    0:19:38 And when you have young Democrats, you guys like that, huh?
    0:19:43 When you have people in these various positions, whether it’s mayor or board of supervisors
    0:19:51 or other places, we have to invest the resources into helping to grow our talent pool to ensure
    0:19:53 that we have a pipeline.
    0:19:55 Do you think the Republicans have done that well?
    0:20:00 Or do you think that they’re, because look, Trump is no one’s idea of an ideal candidate.
    0:20:03 And yet one by a lot, you could read that a few ways.
    0:20:06 A lot of people like Trump a lot, which is plainly the case.
    0:20:10 And or the Democrats were really unpopular.
    0:20:13 I’m just curious, and I know you faced it yourself.
    0:20:15 Your far left hit you very, very hard.
    0:20:19 You had to deal with a lot of things as ultimately a centrist Dem.
    0:20:24 So I’m just wondering if the big tent needs to be reconfigured for the Dems.
    0:20:26 I think that the tent needs to be open.
    0:20:28 Again, I come from nothing.
    0:20:33 So I’ve only mostly volunteered and helped people in their campaign.
    0:20:35 So it’s significant that I’m mayor.
    0:20:41 So how do we capitalize on that in order to ensure that people like me don’t get lost
    0:20:48 by the party, but really does start with, how do you get more people choosing to register
    0:20:51 as a Democrat rather than decline to state?
    0:20:53 How do you feel about open primaries?
    0:20:58 I would be open to it, but I’m not 100% sure that that’s the right route to go.
    0:20:59 Because why?
    0:21:00 What’s the advantage?
    0:21:03 I mean, there are a lot of good arguments for why a two-party system is not as bad as
    0:21:04 we always say it is.
    0:21:08 Because when you look at the alternatives, there are many countries with five, 10 parties
    0:21:11 and they’re in worse chaos, honestly.
    0:21:15 I mean, it’s politics and you got to remember politics is never going to be nice and wrapped
    0:21:16 into a neat little bowl.
    0:21:18 It’s going to be something you have to fight for.
    0:21:23 The reason why I struggle with the open primary has a lot to do with, I want to see the Democrats
    0:21:30 united and I want us to do the work to get behind the candidate, whether we agree with
    0:21:35 that person or not to really fight for that candidate and also to listen to people as
    0:21:38 to why they might want something different.
    0:21:42 We may see something or hear something and we say, “Oh, they don’t know what they’re
    0:21:43 talking about.”
    0:21:45 But you know what?
    0:21:50 If you listen closely and you hear what they’re saying, you have to think about, “Well, how
    0:21:55 do we appeal to the people who we believe may not know what they’re talking about?”
    0:22:00 I just think you have to be a little bit more open-minded and not just toss someone to the
    0:22:06 side just because their beliefs aren’t 100 percent of what you think our value system
    0:22:12 should be because clearly we got a lot of work to do and we have to understand all those
    0:22:15 different states differently than we have in the past.
    0:22:17 That’s really, really nicely said.
    0:22:20 Congratulations on your career, everything.
    0:22:24 Thank you for coming out tonight.
    0:22:29 We will be back with more from our live show in San Francisco right after this.
    0:22:41 Okay, back now to our recent live show in San Francisco.
    0:22:46 All right, I’m having a good time.
    0:22:47 Are you?
    0:22:53 Are we okay?
    0:22:58 You may be wondering why we are here at this big theater in San Francisco on this rather
    0:23:00 awkward date.
    0:23:02 It’s January 3rd, I guess.
    0:23:08 Nobody does events this week, the week of New Years, but we’re here because this week
    0:23:14 in San Francisco is the annual meeting of the American Economics Association.
    0:23:20 The AEA is, as you can imagine, it’s a huge gathering of economists from all over the
    0:23:25 world and it really is as exciting as that sounds.
    0:23:29 And then you ask, “Well, why would they hold it now in the week of New Years when everything
    0:23:32 is dead, everybody’s traveling and so on?”
    0:23:39 And the reason is because economists are really cheap and when they’re booking these conferences
    0:23:45 every year in a different city, they want the cheapest week for the hotels and the conference
    0:23:50 center and therefore they hold it immediately after New Years.
    0:23:58 And so when we heard it was coming to San Francisco this year, major city, we decided we go to
    0:24:03 these AEA conferences to scout stories and to see our economists friends and to look
    0:24:07 for new economists friends for the sake of Freakonomics Radio and so on.
    0:24:10 But then we also decided this year, because we would be in a major city, that we would
    0:24:13 put on this live show at the same time.
    0:24:19 So we had the mayor, which is fantastic, but we have another couple of guests that we were
    0:24:24 able to wrangle because the AEA was here.
    0:24:26 We’ve got two more economists to come.
    0:24:27 Let’s welcome the first one.
    0:24:31 Please give a warm hand to Mr. Coleman Strumpf.
    0:24:38 Coleman, come on out.
    0:24:40 [applause]
    0:24:46 Coleman, here are a few things I know about you.
    0:24:51 As a kid, you got into trouble bringing candy bought at retail to school and selling it
    0:24:53 at a very high markup, correct?
    0:24:54 Yep.
    0:24:55 My introduction to crime.
    0:24:58 Introduction to crime or introduction to thinking like an economist?
    0:24:59 Maybe they’re not so different.
    0:25:00 Maybe they’re not so different.
    0:25:02 I’ve been saying that a long time.
    0:25:03 Nobody believed me.
    0:25:09 I also know that as a child, you appeared in a TV commercial for Tang, the astronaut beverage,
    0:25:10 is that true?
    0:25:16 I, in fact, did with the rest of my family and I only say if you spend a whole day drinking
    0:25:20 Tang, if you even know what that is, you will not feel so good the next week.
    0:25:21 All right.
    0:25:25 You’re now an economist at Wake Forest and most of your research that I’m familiar with
    0:25:31 at least has been about what I would characterize as illicit and taboo activities.
    0:25:34 Would you name a few that you’ve looked into over the years?
    0:25:35 Yeah.
    0:25:40 Sports betting, not the stuff you do on your phone, but the guy in the corner.
    0:25:45 I’ve done some work on cannabis, which we might talk a little bit more about.
    0:25:46 File sharing.
    0:25:49 File sharing like stealing digital products.
    0:25:51 You’re an empirical economist.
    0:25:52 You work with data.
    0:25:55 How do you get the data when you’re dealing with illicit goods?
    0:25:56 It’s not as hard as you’d think.
    0:25:58 I’ll tell you about sports betting.
    0:26:04 I was very interested in sports betting and I one time went to Las Vegas, which was about
    0:26:08 the only place you could do sports betting and I tried to wrangle up with one of the
    0:26:09 bookmakers.
    0:26:13 I was like, “Can you give me some information about what you guys do?”
    0:26:15 And he laughed at me.
    0:26:21 So maybe as a way of getting revenge on the guy, I ended up making a friend in Brooklyn’s
    0:26:26 district attorney’s office and now I have a bunch of records on illegal bookmakers.
    0:26:31 So I still don’t know a lot about what the guys in Las Vegas do, but I can tell you about
    0:26:32 a lot of guys in New York.
    0:26:34 So you blackmail people essentially, huh?
    0:26:36 I get a little revenge.
    0:26:40 The reason I wanted to have you on the show tonight is you appeared in an episode we made
    0:26:46 back in I guess the fall, not long before the election talking about betting markets, prediction
    0:26:52 markets which are sometimes the same as betting markets, some legal but mostly kind of illegal.
    0:26:54 Also you helped us out with a later episode.
    0:26:58 We did a series on the economics of cannabis and you had a lot of data that nobody else
    0:27:02 had about legal and illegal weed shops.
    0:27:09 How can you tell an illegal from a legal weed shop, let’s say in California, other than
    0:27:13 maybe you go sample door-to-door, I don’t know how that works?
    0:27:18 Those of you who in the audience who are interested in cannabis might know a website.
    0:27:22 Should we turn the house lights on and have a show of hands or something?
    0:27:28 You might know an app called, you might know an app called Weed Maps.
    0:27:32 Those of you who have never used it, it’s maybe like Yelp for pot.
    0:27:35 Fired up on your phone, put on the GPS, tells you all the stores near you.
    0:27:41 So I saw this app and I said, hmm, it’d be kind of cool if you could just get everything
    0:27:44 that’s on that site and stockpile it.
    0:27:49 And if you spend a little time kicking around in the background, you can figure out a way
    0:27:50 of doing that.
    0:27:55 So I always have a lot of computers running and a bunch of computers for several years
    0:27:57 just pulling stuff off this site.
    0:28:00 So I have a list of all the stores.
    0:28:04 Now how do I know who’s legal and how do I know who’s illegal?
    0:28:08 So the state of California publishes a list of the legal stores.
    0:28:12 So I could start using that, but the information’s a little bit incomplete.
    0:28:19 So I had to look at different online sources, including Google Maps to see stores magically
    0:28:25 turning from a kid’s store into a weed store in Los Angeles and you can kind of figure
    0:28:29 out through a lot of sweat, which ones are legal and which ones are not.
    0:28:33 Now when they’re listed on the site, whether it’s the weed map site or the California data,
    0:28:35 there’s a license number, I assume, right?
    0:28:37 That’s what makes a legal shop legal.
    0:28:39 Do the illegal shops just make up a number?
    0:28:44 Yeah, they either make up a number, go down the street, look at the legal store, take
    0:28:46 a picture of that and use that number.
    0:28:50 Or sometimes they just put up stuff that isn’t even a valid number.
    0:28:55 Now the thing that blows me away is when in a place like California, let’s take LA versus
    0:28:56 San Francisco.
    0:29:01 In LA, you told us something like 70% of the weed shops are illegal.
    0:29:03 So can you explain how the economics of that works?
    0:29:05 Why do they proliferate?
    0:29:09 Obviously, it’s cheaper because you’re unlicensed, but why are they allowed to proliferate?
    0:29:11 Yeah, that’s a great question.
    0:29:16 There’s not a lot of, I guess, will among policymakers to do it.
    0:29:21 The people who would be doing the enforcement, the police, think about how hard this job
    0:29:22 is.
    0:29:27 If I say, arrest people who are doing some activity, well, I just see somebody doing
    0:29:28 this activity.
    0:29:35 Now you need to say, not just as somebody selling cannabis, but as somebody who’s licensed
    0:29:36 or unlicensed.
    0:29:37 They’re literally doing the exact same thing.
    0:29:40 Some people are doing it legally, some people are not doing it.
    0:29:41 It’s not so easy.
    0:29:46 But I would imagine that, let’s say you and I teamed up and we said, you know what, alcohol
    0:29:50 is pretty cheap to make, if you think about it, just to ferment some stuff and you put
    0:29:56 it in a bottle, then you brand it, and then you can sell it for like 20, 30, 50, 80, $100.
    0:29:58 And we know there’s a lot of tax associated with that.
    0:30:02 So let’s say that you and I could either fake it or get the real stuff a little bit cheaper
    0:30:06 and just open a liquor store without having to pay any of the taxes and regulation stuff.
    0:30:08 Why do we never see that?
    0:30:13 In the wake of prohibition, actually, you did see things like that for 15 years.
    0:30:19 Through the 1950s, you would have lots of arrests of people having illicit stills and
    0:30:20 things of that sort.
    0:30:25 Today, in cannabis, the illegal people are pretty sophisticated.
    0:30:30 So one of the things in this weed maps data I have is I have a list of all the products.
    0:30:31 What are some of your favorites?
    0:30:33 Well, I like to observe.
    0:30:36 Honestly, I’m a little out of date on them.
    0:30:37 Is that true?
    0:30:38 Yes.
    0:30:39 You’re not a big…
    0:30:40 I took you for a big…
    0:30:41 Yeah, I definitely have that.
    0:30:42 Yeah.
    0:30:44 But at any rate, so I am familiar with some of the big brands.
    0:30:47 The good news is, apparently Tang is not a gateway drug then.
    0:30:48 Yeah, right.
    0:30:53 Well, maybe it’s a gateway drug to being an economist, but I don’t really know.
    0:30:59 But at any rate, if you’re wanting to sort of pretend you’re running a legitimate place,
    0:31:02 you’ll take a name brand and you’ll just switch a letter.
    0:31:06 And they literally get old containers or wrappers from legal stuff, and they’ll put
    0:31:08 it around the legal stuff.
    0:31:13 Also, one thing you told us was that in San Francisco, there are many fewer illegal shops,
    0:31:15 which has to do with the way that they run their programs.
    0:31:18 So I don’t know if Mayor Breed had anything to do with setting up that program.
    0:31:22 We actually interviewed the guy who did that, but something like 20% of the shops here are
    0:31:25 illegal versus LA about 70, right?
    0:31:26 That’s what your data says.
    0:31:30 Yeah, and these are from a few years back, but I would say the number is probably still
    0:31:31 about holding.
    0:31:37 But I would think that the illegal shops benefit further by having legality because that drives
    0:31:40 the price up with the licensing and it makes their stuff, which might be identical, much
    0:31:41 cheaper, yeah?
    0:31:44 And on top of that, there’s the social norm.
    0:31:49 I live in North Carolina where it’s not so different from what I remember growing up.
    0:31:55 In New York, in San Francisco, all California, the norm about how acceptable is cannabis
    0:31:59 as a thing to be using, much more accepted today than it used to be.
    0:32:01 And it’s going to spill over to the illicit side as well.
    0:32:05 So I would argue demand is probably much higher.
    0:32:06 We could talk a long time about cannabis.
    0:32:08 It’s a very interesting economy.
    0:32:10 Also, the elections this year were interesting.
    0:32:14 It got voted down in Florida, I think North and South Dakota.
    0:32:18 But it’s interesting that we’re talking about what people used to call vices, right?
    0:32:23 It’s betting, but it’s now mostly legal in the US, cannabis, mostly legal in the US.
    0:32:26 What about betting on elections?
    0:32:27 You know a lot about that.
    0:32:33 Do you think that will become fully legal in the US in the next, you know, five, 10 years?
    0:32:37 I usually, when I try to make a forecast, I look at these markets to answer the question
    0:32:40 rather than try to answer it on my own.
    0:32:46 Things look pretty promising, but everything is going to be governed by what a judge will
    0:32:48 maybe say about these things.
    0:32:51 There was a lot of enthusiasm about these markets this time.
    0:32:54 They did a pretty good job at forecasting the election.
    0:32:57 You argue they do, on average, better than polling.
    0:32:58 Yes.
    0:32:59 Yeah, definitely.
    0:33:03 There’s a fundamental difference between polls and these markets.
    0:33:07 The way a poll works, which is probably what most people in the audience are familiar with,
    0:33:14 is you talk to a bunch of people, the representative of all voters, and you see what they’re thinking.
    0:33:16 These markets are supposed to work in a totally different way.
    0:33:21 You could step outside your own experience and say, look, my goal presumably is to make
    0:33:23 some money at forecasting the election.
    0:33:26 Well, that has nothing to do with what I think in terms of who I like.
    0:33:29 I’m trying to guess what other people like.
    0:33:31 Where’s the information coming from?
    0:33:32 Everywhere and anywhere.
    0:33:33 Right.
    0:33:35 So why would it, on average, be more accurate than polling?
    0:33:39 Look, we’ve learned this election and past elections that many pollsters are just not
    0:33:40 very good.
    0:33:41 Let’s be honest, right?
    0:33:45 It’s not a particularly scientific science, if you want to call it that.
    0:33:50 But still, why would they who are setting out to do one thing in a very binary way?
    0:33:55 I ask a bunch of people, this candidate or that candidate, why would they not be better
    0:34:02 than a group of people who are looking to profit from feeling they know a piece of information?
    0:34:06 This election was probably the best case example I could give of that.
    0:34:12 So when people are polled about certain candidates, they tend not to always say who they support.
    0:34:18 So traditionally, Donald Trump underperforms and polls.
    0:34:19 David Dinkins.
    0:34:22 I don’t know if you remember this in New York City, the first black mayor of New York City.
    0:34:23 He over polled by a lot.
    0:34:29 A lot of people wanted to be seen saying that, yes, I will vote for the first African-American
    0:34:30 mayor.
    0:34:31 Right.
    0:34:35 So let me tell you about the person who was the most successful better in 2024, who was
    0:34:37 a French citizen.
    0:34:38 He had a very similar view.
    0:34:41 He said, I don’t think these polls are working very well.
    0:34:44 But I’m going to run my own poll.
    0:34:50 And so he asked a slightly different question, which was not who do you support?
    0:34:52 Who do you think your neighbors support?
    0:34:57 There’s a little bit of work that suggests that people are a little bit more realistic
    0:35:00 about thinking about that question than what they themselves think.
    0:35:06 Anyway, he was so confident in what he found from this poll that he put down $80 million
    0:35:08 on Donald Trump to win.
    0:35:11 And yeah, he made $80 million.
    0:35:17 Does this suggest that pollsters next time around will basically emulate that methodology
    0:35:22 of asking a question that’s not so binary, it’s not so, what are you going to do?
    0:35:26 I’m pretty skeptical of pollsters getting into the 21st century.
    0:35:31 Like the writing’s been on the, like, forget about what I’ve just been saying.
    0:35:36 Being a pollster is infinitely more difficult today than it was 40 years ago.
    0:35:37 Absence of landlines.
    0:35:38 Yeah.
    0:35:43 I don’t know who’s calling, and my phone doesn’t equate to where I physically am.
    0:35:45 It’s just very hard to do polls.
    0:35:51 The kind of advancements that they’ve made are relatively marching, in my opinion.
    0:35:57 The thing that most surprised me about your work talking to you is how the betting markets
    0:36:04 on elections have been around for a long time and have been accurate for a long time and
    0:36:05 have been robust for a long time.
    0:36:09 Do you know anything about San Francisco history?
    0:36:15 San Francisco definitely had their own markets, many of which were relatively big money, millions
    0:36:17 of dollars in today’s dollars.
    0:36:21 They would take place in like cigar stores and things like that.
    0:36:23 We’re talking 1900, a long time ago.
    0:36:27 Some people had money, but a lot of people didn’t have money, but there were fewer things
    0:36:29 to bet on back then.
    0:36:32 So people were really into betting on elections.
    0:36:34 And so they would do these non-monetary bets.
    0:36:37 If you didn’t have the cash, they call them freak bets.
    0:36:38 I don’t really…
    0:36:39 Freak?
    0:36:40 Freak bets.
    0:36:41 I don’t…
    0:36:42 F-R-E-A-K?
    0:36:43 As in a certain book that I’m familiar with, yes.
    0:36:44 I like the sound of that, yeah.
    0:36:47 At any rate, they did all sorts of crazy things.
    0:36:51 It was, “I won’t shave for the next 20 years.
    0:36:53 I’ll walk halfway across the country.”
    0:36:54 And these are documented somewhere?
    0:36:57 Yeah, these are all at least newspaper stories.
    0:37:03 And my favorite San Francisco story that I saw was in 1916, which was a very tightly
    0:37:05 contested election.
    0:37:06 Two people…
    0:37:07 1916?
    0:37:08 1916.
    0:37:10 So this is Woodrow Wilson getting reelected.
    0:37:15 And two people were betting, and the loser had to get dressed as a woman.
    0:37:16 Okay.
    0:37:17 These were two men.
    0:37:18 In public and private?
    0:37:20 In public and within a mile of here.
    0:37:21 And go out and parade around?
    0:37:22 And they would parade around.
    0:37:28 And so this one guy did, apparently it was not legal to dress as a woman at that point
    0:37:29 in time.
    0:37:33 This guy got arrested, and then his friends came and bailed him out, apparently.
    0:37:36 So for losing the bet, he had to dress as a woman, and because it was illegal to dress
    0:37:38 as a woman, he was arrested?
    0:37:39 He was arrested.
    0:37:40 Wow.
    0:37:41 Wow.
    0:37:42 Prime really does not pay.
    0:37:43 That’s brutal.
    0:37:44 No.
    0:37:45 When was cross-dressing illegal until?
    0:37:47 In San Francisco, I think 40 years ago.
    0:37:48 Really?
    0:37:49 And that’s San Francisco?
    0:37:50 Yeah.
    0:37:51 Yeah.
    0:37:52 Major City.
    0:37:53 All right.
    0:37:55 Well, Coleman, thank you.
    0:37:56 It’s always great to talk to you.
    0:37:57 Great.
    0:37:58 Thanks.
    0:38:06 This is Stephen Dubner, and you were listening to a Freakonomics Radio show.
    0:38:09 We recorded live in San Francisco on January 3rd.
    0:38:20 We will be right back with our final guest.
    0:38:22 We have one more guest tonight.
    0:38:29 He is an economist at a nearby school called Stanford, I believe it’s pronounced, which
    0:38:36 please welcome Eric Brynjolfsson.
    0:38:47 Okay, I’m very fond of this man, very, very interesting and bright fellow.
    0:38:53 So Eric, it says that you are a senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered
    0:38:54 AI.
    0:38:55 Is that correct so far?
    0:38:56 So far, so good.
    0:39:00 And you’re also director of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
    0:39:01 So I just want to know what both of those are.
    0:39:04 I want to know what a human-centered AI is, honestly.
    0:39:06 Well, that’s a good question.
    0:39:11 Fei-Fei Li started it along with Jonathan Chimendi, and they recruited me out to Stanford.
    0:39:12 You were MIT?
    0:39:15 Yeah, I was at a major city in Massachusetts.
    0:39:19 You’re picking bones with me, because that is the other city that thinks it’s a major
    0:39:20 city.
    0:39:22 Well, I’m sorry, it keeps…
    0:39:26 It’s too bad we keep feeding New York in all the sports, but that’s just the way it goes.
    0:39:28 You know, here’s the thing about New York in sports.
    0:39:32 When you’re a major city, the sports don’t really matter that much.
    0:39:33 Good.
    0:39:35 Yeah, you can cope.
    0:39:40 So the idea is that AI is doing these amazing things, but we want to do it in service of
    0:39:44 humans and make sure that we keep humans at the center of all of that.
    0:39:48 A lot of technologists are very focused on the technology, but I’m an economist, as you
    0:39:53 mentioned, and they’re political scientists, sociologists, artists, and we’re all working
    0:39:59 to use AI to help lots of the other parts of the world and of academia.
    0:40:04 When you talk about human center, I mean, one thing that comes to my mind is labor, right?
    0:40:05 Yes.
    0:40:08 You and I have had this conversation on the show for probably eight or 10 years now about
    0:40:15 to what degree does automation and AI mean job replacement, and if so, how big a problem
    0:40:16 is that?
    0:40:20 But you’re talking about more than just machines doing human jobs.
    0:40:26 You’re talking about having AI or having technologies that let humans be human in their most essential
    0:40:27 way or what?
    0:40:28 Totally.
    0:40:31 Too many people think of machines as just sort of trying to imitate humans.
    0:40:35 There’s this iconic test of artificial intelligence called the Turing test that many people are
    0:40:39 familiar with, which is how much can you make a machine mimic a human to the point where
    0:40:41 you can’t tell which is which.
    0:40:46 That was, I think, a visionary idea when Alan Turing proposed it in 1950, but in a way,
    0:40:50 it’s a very constraining idea because machines can help us do new things we never could have
    0:40:55 done before, and that’s a much higher ceiling, and so we want to look for ways that machines
    0:40:59 can complement humans, not simply imitate or replace them.
    0:41:03 I wrote a paper recently called The Turing Trap trying to steer people away from this
    0:41:06 idea of just imitating humans.
    0:41:12 If we were having this conversation a year ago about AI generally, the first five questions
    0:41:16 would be, “So, are the machines going to wipe out humanity?”
    0:41:20 Now, it’s not that nobody’s thinking about that and concerned about it anymore, but
    0:41:22 it’s no longer the conversation.
    0:41:24 Why is that?
    0:41:26 I think it’s still part of the conversation.
    0:41:27 I don’t know.
    0:41:30 Maybe in the press, there’s things that go up and down in cycles to some extent.
    0:41:32 AI is becoming much more powerful.
    0:41:36 There continues to be rapid progress, and the good news is we can have tremendously
    0:41:43 higher productivity and wealth and have medical solutions addressing poverty in the environment,
    0:41:50 but it also raises a number of risks, misinformation or people using it in a way that creates weird
    0:41:55 interpersonal dynamics, AI boyfriends and girlfriends, maybe millions of those that people have as
    0:41:59 their primary relationship, pathogens, and even catastrophic risks.
    0:42:02 Say more about pathogens in AI.
    0:42:08 The great thing is AI can help us discover new drugs, as well as new materials.
    0:42:13 There’s just a study from a grad student at MIT describing how researchers using AI were
    0:42:19 able to discover 44% more materials than a randomly assigned group that didn’t have
    0:42:22 access to the technology, so a big difference.
    0:42:24 Some of those new materials, lots of them can do good things.
    0:42:27 You can also create dangerous ones.
    0:42:31 You can flip the bit on a drug that’s meant to make you healthier, and it can make you
    0:42:35 much less healthy to the point of killing you.
    0:42:37 You know a lot more about this than most of us do.
    0:42:39 You’ve come at it from a variety of angles.
    0:42:44 We’ll talk about the economic angle in a little bit, but would you call yourself generally
    0:42:45 a techno-optimist?
    0:42:48 I’d say I’m a mindful optimist.
    0:42:51 What I mean by that is that they’re sort of blind optimists.
    0:42:54 I run into a lot of those in Silicon Valley who are just like, “Hey, don’t worry.
    0:42:55 Just chill.
    0:42:57 It works out in the past.
    0:42:58 It’s going to be great.
    0:43:00 Just sit back, and we’re going to have a great time.”
    0:43:03 There’s a lot of pessimists who basically say the opposite.
    0:43:07 They both make the same mistake, I think, which is they take the agency away from us.
    0:43:11 This technology is going to do stuff to us, and whatever it is is what it is.
    0:43:13 I think that we have a lot of choices.
    0:43:18 One of the reasons I came to Stanford, the Center for Human-Centered AI, is that I think
    0:43:23 we can help steer the technology in ways, and if we do it right, we could have the best
    0:43:26 decade we’ve ever seen, but it’s not inevitable.
    0:43:27 Okay.
    0:43:29 But we’ll call you a mindful optimist is what you say.
    0:43:30 Thank you.
    0:43:32 Do you know much about what they call nominative determinism?
    0:43:33 Have you ever heard that phrase?
    0:43:34 No.
    0:43:39 It’s the idea that your name, your very name has some effect.
    0:43:41 That sounds like a good Freakonomics chapter.
    0:43:45 We wrote a chapter about names that almost everybody remembers wrong.
    0:43:47 We wrote that there is no such a thing.
    0:43:48 Mr. Baker is a baker.
    0:43:49 Yeah, exactly.
    0:43:53 My name is Stephen Baker, and I open a bakery, or my name is Dennis, and I become a dentist.
    0:43:54 And so on.
    0:43:57 But there are people who believe that, but with you, I got to thinking.
    0:44:01 I looked up the etymology of your name, Eric Brynjolfsson.
    0:44:07 The internet tells me the last name is an Icelandic patronymic, son of Brynjolf.
    0:44:13 With Brynjolf broken into Bryn, which means armor, and jolf meaning wolf, so son of the
    0:44:19 armored wolf, and then Eric usually translates to eternal ruler or ever powerful.
    0:44:23 So you are the ever powerful son of the armored wolf.
    0:44:28 Do you think that’s why you’re an optimist?
    0:44:29 That would make sense.
    0:44:34 That’s what people, when I go to Iceland, that’s how people know me.
    0:44:35 It’s true.
    0:44:40 I’ve heard you talk in the past about, as I understand it, essentially a new way of
    0:44:43 measuring our economy.
    0:44:46 You call it GDPB, so I want you to tell us about that.
    0:44:48 I want you to tell us what the B stands for.
    0:44:51 But I want you to start at the beginning, because many people, even people who have
    0:44:57 nothing to do with economic sync, GDP is a highly imperfect measure of what we want it
    0:44:58 to measure.
    0:45:01 And if I recall correctly, I don’t know much about this, but I’m sure you do.
    0:45:06 But the inventor of Simon Kuznetz, when he created GDP, warned that it should not be used
    0:45:08 for essentially what we’re using it for.
    0:45:09 That’s exactly right.
    0:45:14 Simon Kuznetz, with his team in the 1930s, basically developed what we now use as our
    0:45:18 national accounts, GDP, productivity is all based on the system of accounts.
    0:45:22 Paul Samuels, one of the greatest inventions of the 20th century, I agree, but it’s also
    0:45:25 been massively abused and misused.
    0:45:29 Nowadays, if you see a headline, economy grew by 3.2%.
    0:45:32 They mean GDP increased by 3.2%.
    0:45:34 And why is that an imprecise or not useful measure?
    0:45:39 Well, GDP measures basically everything that’s bought and sold in the economy.
    0:45:44 What that means, with few exceptions, if something doesn’t have a price, it’s not counted in
    0:45:45 GDP.
    0:45:47 So we’re missing a lot of important stuff.
    0:45:52 Clean air, a classic problem is if I cook a meal for myself, that’s not part of GDP.
    0:45:57 But if I hire somebody to cook it, or if somebody pays me to cook it, then it is part of GDP.
    0:45:59 So you have a lot of little weirdnesses like that.
    0:46:01 A lot of household production is not there.
    0:46:05 And one of the biggest ones, I’m the director of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, is all
    0:46:11 these digital goods that are often free, Wikipedia, search, Facebook, texting, email.
    0:46:15 If they have zero price, other than the electricity and a few other things, they’re basically
    0:46:17 not counted in GDP.
    0:46:19 Yet people get a lot of value from them.
    0:46:24 Right now, the average American spends a little over eight hours per day looking at a screen
    0:46:28 of some sort, TV, computer, whatever.
    0:46:31 That means they’re spending slightly more than half their waking hours interacting
    0:46:34 with bits, not with all the other things.
    0:46:40 That means a big part of our lived experience is these things that are not being well measured
    0:46:42 by traditional GDP.
    0:46:46 So it’s interesting, because where you’re heading here plainly is that we are richer
    0:46:51 than we appear, because how we’re counting wealth is imprecise and incomplete.
    0:46:56 On the other hand, if we’re even richer than the numbers say, why are so many people so
    0:46:57 miserable?
    0:46:59 Well, you’re absolutely right.
    0:47:02 We have a lot more wealth than we had before.
    0:47:04 But we also did before as well.
    0:47:09 I mean, there’s television and penicillin, things were also not counted very well.
    0:47:15 But wealth is not the same as happiness, as we know, and so it doesn’t automatically translate
    0:47:16 one for one.
    0:47:20 But it doesn’t mean we have an imperfect measure of the value that our economy is creating
    0:47:21 for us.
    0:47:26 There is this famous in economics idea of basically diminishing return on wealth and happiness
    0:47:30 that was argued by Danny Kahneman and someone else, I can’t remember who, that original
    0:47:31 paper.
    0:47:35 Easterlin is called the Easterlin paradox that what you just said that as people got
    0:47:37 richer, they didn’t seem to get happier.
    0:47:41 More recent research found that, actually, it just sort of is diminishing returns like
    0:47:42 you’re saying.
    0:47:43 It’s not that it actually stops.
    0:47:44 Yeah.
    0:47:45 And I guess this is what gets us to GDPB.
    0:47:47 So tell us what the B stands for.
    0:47:48 Yeah.
    0:47:50 Who are you working with or for?
    0:47:54 And what is the intention of invoking this new measure?
    0:47:56 So the B stands for the benefit.
    0:48:01 As I said earlier, GDP is basically a measure of production, what it costs to produce things.
    0:48:05 The GDPB is trying to capture the consumer surplus.
    0:48:09 It’s the value between what the most you would have paid, what you actually have to pay.
    0:48:14 So with Wikipedia, if you would have been willing to pay $15 a month and you pay zero,
    0:48:15 you’re getting $15 of consumer surplus.
    0:48:17 And you’re trying to measure that.
    0:48:18 Yes, we are.
    0:48:19 How do you do that?
    0:48:25 So if I were to do a survey and say, okay, I’ll give you $500 to stop using the internet
    0:48:29 or stop using email, more realistically, for 30 days.
    0:48:31 Some of you would raise your hands and some of you wouldn’t.
    0:48:36 If I said, okay, what if I gave you $50, what if I gave you $5, you get fewer and fewer
    0:48:38 people being willing to give it up.
    0:48:40 And that gives you a downward sloping demand curve.
    0:48:45 A lot of people think it’s worth at least $500, not so many think it’s only worth $5.
    0:48:50 And the area under that curve, we call that consumer surplus.
    0:48:53 And if you do that for lots of different goods, you start getting a sense of how much value
    0:48:54 all these different goods are creating.
    0:48:56 And is this a government project?
    0:49:01 No, it’s something I came up with on my own where we decided that we should measure consumer
    0:49:02 surplus and not just cost.
    0:49:05 And so we started doing some small scale surveys.
    0:49:09 And we got some money from different groups, the National Science Foundation, the Sloan
    0:49:10 Foundation.
    0:49:12 So I guess part of it is a government project.
    0:49:15 And we’d love to get more support to do it at a larger scale.
    0:49:20 We’re doing about 250 goods right now, including digital goods, non-digital goods.
    0:49:24 We ultimately want to get a representative basket of several thousand goods that we can
    0:49:30 track periodically alongside traditional GDP and see how they compare.
    0:49:33 The thing that’s so interesting to me, I mean, the whole thing is fascinating.
    0:49:38 I’m curious to know what the ramifications would be if your measure were to become widely
    0:49:39 embraced.
    0:49:44 But one consequence that I could imagine is that the way that our government currently
    0:49:49 looks at regulation and antitrust especially, which is going to change with the new administration
    0:49:50 for sure.
    0:49:55 But when you’re talking about basically the hidden or uncounted benefits of many, many,
    0:50:01 many firms that are the targets of regulators now, it could be that those benefits that are
    0:50:08 not being counted should be reason for antitrust legislation to be considered very differently.
    0:50:09 Would you say that’s the case?
    0:50:10 Yeah.
    0:50:15 I mean, I think already there is a standard among many antitrust experts that came out
    0:50:19 of Chicago actually that, you know, we should look at consumer welfare as the ultimate metric.
    0:50:20 But that was a few decades ago.
    0:50:22 I feel like we’ve moved past that now.
    0:50:23 Well, that’s the concept.
    0:50:28 In terms of measuring, so Lina Khan has a different measure and there’s an ongoing debate.
    0:50:33 But I like the consumer welfare standard, which is, you know, is this concentration,
    0:50:38 this merger, this spin off, whatever, is it making consumers better off or worse off?
    0:50:39 And that’s hard to measure.
    0:50:42 But our tool, GDPB, gives us a set of measures for that.
    0:50:43 And you’re right.
    0:50:48 In many cases, there’s a tremendous amount of value from Google search or from email.
    0:50:52 One of my students was over in the European Commission and they were upset about all the
    0:50:56 money that the big companies based here in San Francisco and around the United States
    0:51:00 were making on European consumers and saying, oh, this is a very unbalanced thing where
    0:51:03 there’s a lot of money going in this direction.
    0:51:07 And he pointed out, well, actually, if you measure the value that people are getting,
    0:51:11 there’s far more value that French citizens are getting from these services than what
    0:51:12 they’re paying.
    0:51:14 So the net gain is in the other direction.
    0:51:15 That’s really interesting.
    0:51:19 I mean, I’m guessing that the way that European regulators think about American tech firms,
    0:51:23 that argument as true as it might be is probably not going to change the regulatory position.
    0:51:25 Not as much as them having their own tech firms.
    0:51:29 And so when they have companies like Mistral, I met with the finance minister in France,
    0:51:33 and he was coming around to the view that, well, actually, maybe tech companies can create
    0:51:37 some value now that we have one of our own.
    0:51:40 So there’s quite say it that way.
    0:51:47 I would argue that Silicon Valley, Northern California generally, have created an innovation
    0:51:55 economy that is now global and just massively large and massively influential in many ways.
    0:52:01 In a way, I feel like the global economy kind of is, at root, the Silicon Valley economy.
    0:52:05 I know we still do a lot of other stuff in this country, and it’s not the majority of
    0:52:09 the economy by any stretch, but it’s such a fundamental part.
    0:52:15 And more so, it has such sway in our daily lives, in our political lives, and so on.
    0:52:20 And when I hear you talk about GDP, I think, if anything, we are underweighting the leverage
    0:52:22 of this economy here.
    0:52:25 So I’m curious to know if you think I’m medium wrong, totally wrong, only a little bit wrong
    0:52:26 or maybe a little bit right.
    0:52:27 I agree.
    0:52:31 I mean, look, I moved out here four years ago from Boston, another pretty innovative
    0:52:36 place, but I really underestimated how amazing the culture is out here.
    0:52:39 I am constantly meeting people doing startup things.
    0:52:43 They have these grand visions and dreams, and I think they’re mostly pretty sincere about
    0:52:45 wanting to change the world for the better.
    0:52:47 I moved here in summer of 2020.
    0:52:49 I remember it was COVID.
    0:52:53 We had this garden party, and I sort of half-jokingly nervously said, “Hey, are you guys all going
    0:52:55 to be moving to like Austin or Miami or something?
    0:52:57 Did I kind of miss the party?”
    0:52:58 And they laughed at it.
    0:52:59 “Oh, don’t worry.”
    0:53:01 It kind of seems like, you know, San Francisco and the Bay Area is going downhill.
    0:53:02 I said, “Don’t worry.
    0:53:03 There’ll be something.”
    0:53:05 We didn’t know about Chatch E.P.T. at that point.
    0:53:08 Maybe a few of the people in the room might have been working on it for all I know.
    0:53:13 But then, of course, there’s this explosion, and if anything, I think the tech innovation
    0:53:18 scene is even more concentrated in the Bay Area now than it was when I came in 2020.
    0:53:21 And there’s just a whole wave of innovations.
    0:53:24 People talk about it, but, and I’m an economist, I don’t really fully appreciate it until I’m
    0:53:25 here.
    0:53:28 There’s a cultural element to it, an attitude.
    0:53:31 It partly attracts people from around the world who have this mindset of wanting to
    0:53:33 change the world.
    0:53:38 People help each other to do it, and like you said, it’s been a tremendous engine of creativity
    0:53:39 and wealth creation.
    0:53:45 And what about the, I mean, I said it derisively and half jokingly, but what about the failed
    0:53:49 state feel that San Francisco has projected to the world?
    0:53:55 At least how do you reconcile the, you know, the epicenter of the global tech machine and
    0:53:59 economy with the fact that this is a city that has repelled people?
    0:54:00 Yeah.
    0:54:01 It’s a tragedy.
    0:54:03 Part of it, to be fair, I think it’s overrated.
    0:54:06 Like London Breed was saying, I heard, you know, apparently it has the lowest murder
    0:54:10 rate in 60 years, and, you know, I come up to San Francisco a fair number of times.
    0:54:15 I don’t think it’s like what is described by Elon Musk or others on Twitter.
    0:54:21 Well, there’s a good timing.
    0:54:22 But part of it is real.
    0:54:25 I just walked over from Union Square, and there were definitely some homeless people
    0:54:26 on the street.
    0:54:29 In the green room, I gave London Breed a little bit of a hard time, you know, about why do
    0:54:30 we allow this?
    0:54:35 I think in some ways, I’m not a sociologist, but maybe all the wealth and success allows
    0:54:40 a lot of sort of slack and allows them to get away with a lot of mismanagement.
    0:54:44 I’m not signaling out her, anybody in particular, but I do think a lot of that government is
    0:54:47 not managed as well as it could be.
    0:54:51 They can get away with it because there’s just so much innovation and wealth being created
    0:54:52 that you can have a lot of slack.
    0:54:57 I’m hoping that will get tightened up a bit because it doesn’t reflect well on California
    0:55:03 or on San Francisco, and with all the money being poured in to try to support San Francisco
    0:55:04 in the Bay Area.
    0:55:09 We should have the cleanest streets, the best police force, the safest neighborhoods, and
    0:55:13 we don’t.
    0:55:17 So if you were mayor for, you know, a month, I think I’d be a terrible mayor.
    0:55:20 Economists do think differently about problem solving, right?
    0:55:23 Well, a lot of them are probably just common sense, but a few of them, you know, where
    0:55:27 economists may be different, like I’m a huge fan of congestion pricing.
    0:55:30 Almost everyone who I know who is not an economist doesn’t think that’s a good idea.
    0:55:32 But well, I guess some of these guys may be economists.
    0:55:35 One of the first rules of taxation is you tend to get less of what you tax.
    0:55:38 So if you’re taxing work and investment, you’re going to get less of that.
    0:55:39 Why not tax pollution?
    0:55:41 Why not tax congestion?
    0:55:46 I also sometimes advise Singapore, and they’ve put it in place all these rules that economists
    0:55:47 have.
    0:55:48 Will you just slip that in?
    0:55:49 You sometimes advise Singapore?
    0:55:50 No, no.
    0:55:51 Well, on Thursdays or what?
    0:55:54 I’ve been there and met with senior officials, just like I meet with senior officials in
    0:55:55 lots of different places.
    0:55:57 I mean, not like an official advisor or anything.
    0:55:59 Do you have a badge of some kind?
    0:56:00 A badge?
    0:56:01 No.
    0:56:02 You have a cape?
    0:56:03 No, no.
    0:56:04 I am just a professor.
    0:56:08 But what I like about Singapore is they listen to professors, and they don’t listen to professors
    0:56:09 in the US Congress.
    0:56:13 And that’s one of the reasons that they’re successful over there, I think I’m biased.
    0:56:17 And one of the reasons so many people are leaving California is because it’s so expensive
    0:56:18 here, and it doesn’t need to be.
    0:56:22 And the reason it’s so expensive is because a lot of people would love to live here, but
    0:56:26 the housing prices are insanely high because it’s supply and demand.
    0:56:27 It’s elementary.
    0:56:28 It’s economics 101.
    0:56:33 These are things that are actually really easy to fix, and we could do a lot better.
    0:56:37 I see why they call you the ever-powerful son of the armored wolf.
    0:56:38 That was fantastic.
    0:56:52 Eric Brynjolfsen, thank you so much.
    0:56:57 I would like to thank Eric Brynjolfsen, Coleman Strumpf, and Mayor London Breed for joining
    0:56:59 us on stage in San Francisco.
    0:57:03 And I would especially like to thank the 1,500 folks who bought a ticket and came to hang
    0:57:04 out with us.
    0:57:10 If you want to see Freakonomics Radio Live, we have an upcoming show on February 13th
    0:57:15 in Los Angeles with Ari Emanuel and other special guests.
    0:57:19 Tickets are at freakonomics.com/liveshows, one word.
    0:57:24 And if you liked hearing what Eric Brynjolfsen had to say about the impact of AI, be sure
    0:57:29 to catch the next episode of Freakonomics Radio, where we will hear about a new technology
    0:57:31 designed to thwart AI.
    0:57:36 That’s right here in your podcast feed at our new time Friday morning.
    0:57:42 Until then, take care of yourself, and if you can, someone else too.
    0:57:45 Freakonomics Radio is produced by Stitcher and Renbud Radio.
    0:57:50 This episode was produced by Abigail Lowenthal, Ellen Frankman, Morgan Levy, and Zach Lipinski,
    0:57:53 with research help from Dalvin Aboagi.
    0:57:59 Special thanks to Jesse McDaniel with Fresh AV, all the folks at Another Planet Entertainment,
    0:58:07 the crew at the Sidney Goldstein Theater, and our partners SiriusXM and KQED Live.
    0:58:11 The Freakonomics Radio Network staff also includes Alina Kulman, Augusta Chapman, Eleanor
    0:58:16 Osborn, Elsa Hernandez, Gabriel Roth, Greg Rippin, Jasmine Klinger, Jeremy Johnston,
    0:58:20 John Schnars, Neil Coruth, Sarah Lilly, and Theo Jacobs.
    0:58:23 Our theme song is Mr. Fortune by the Hitchhikers.
    0:58:25 Our composer is Luis Guerra.
    0:58:32 Once again, thanks for listening.
    0:58:37 I was able to get the Chinese government to commit to allowing San Francisco to host
    0:58:38 pandas.
    0:58:39 You went to China to get the pandas.
    0:58:42 I went to China to get some panda bears.
    0:58:49 It’s called panda diplomacy.
    0:58:57 The Freakonomics Radio Network, the hidden side of everything.
    0:59:00 [MUSIC PLAYING]

    Stephen Dubner, live on stage, mixes it up with outbound mayor London Breed, and asks economists whether A.I. can be “human-centered” and if Tang is a gateway drug.

     

     

     

  • 618. Are Realtors Having an Existential Crisis?

    AI transcript
    0:00:09 Today’s episode is about an industry that like many industries often talks about how
    0:00:14 competitive it is and how that competition is good for customers.
    0:00:20 The free market is working and I think the consumer is benefiting while still receiving
    0:00:22 professional representation.
    0:00:28 But if you ask most economists, they have a different view of this industry.
    0:00:33 It’s just hard not to say man, these prices seem way higher than they need to be.
    0:00:38 This is an industry that most of us interact with rarely, but when you do, the stakes are
    0:00:39 high.
    0:00:43 It’s a really important decision, financially, emotionally.
    0:00:45 You need a little bit more hand holding.
    0:00:49 But is your hand being held or is it being forced?
    0:00:53 I take great offense at that characterization.
    0:01:00 That’s noted, but also worth noting the National Association of Realtors, the NAR, just settled
    0:01:05 an antitrust lawsuit that requires it to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in damages
    0:01:09 and change the way realtors charge their customers.
    0:01:15 Today, on Freakonomics Radio, we speak with the president of the NAR as well as its chief
    0:01:16 economist.
    0:01:20 The real estate profession is one of the most competitive out there.
    0:01:24 It’s almost like economic textbook definition of perfect competition.
    0:01:30 And we hear from two other economists who don’t see much competition, but instead what looks
    0:01:32 more like collusion.
    0:01:36 Okay, we all know how this thing works, wink, wink.
    0:01:42 And if we just don’t rock the boat too hard, we can keep it together.
    0:01:44 Consider the boat rocked.
    0:01:58 Let’s do this thing now.
    0:02:03 This is Freakonomics Radio, the podcast that explores the hidden side of everything with
    0:02:05 your host Stephen Dubner.
    0:02:20 The National Association of Realtors, which is headquartered in Chicago, is the largest
    0:02:25 trade organization in America with more than 1.5 million members.
    0:02:31 There are real estate agents who are not realtors with a capital R, but the NAR is where the
    0:02:32 action is.
    0:02:37 The organization has endured a variety of scandals, especially among their leadership,
    0:02:43 allegations of sexual misbehavior, financial misbehavior, monopolistic behavior.
    0:02:44 There’s quite a list.
    0:02:50 In the past few years, presidents of the organization have come and gone as quickly as the cookies
    0:02:52 at an open house.
    0:02:53 Another big problem?
    0:02:56 There just isn’t as much business as there used to be.
    0:03:02 In 2023, only 4 million existing homes were sold, the fewest in 30 years.
    0:03:07 There are a variety of reasons for this slump, the COVID pandemic had produced a spike in
    0:03:13 sales that has since receded, mortgage rates are still relatively high, and there’s been
    0:03:16 a lot of political and economic uncertainty.
    0:03:22 There’s also the simple fact that buying or selling a home can be stressful and complicated
    0:03:26 and confusing to the point of intimidation.
    0:03:29 But that’s where the real estate agent comes in.
    0:03:32 Real estate agents are there to help you.
    0:03:35 They do know the market better than most buyers or sellers.
    0:03:38 They deal with transactions all the time.
    0:03:40 That’s exactly why you would hire them.
    0:03:42 That is Chad Severson.
    0:03:44 He’s an economist at the University of Chicago.
    0:03:51 I’m mostly a microeconomist and within that, my field is industrial organization, which
    0:03:54 is really just the economics of companies.
    0:03:56 Severson started out as a mechanical engineer.
    0:04:00 So he understands how something like a house is built.
    0:04:04 As an economist, his job is to understand how houses are bought and sold.
    0:04:09 And part of that is understanding the incentives of the players involved.
    0:04:13 Some years back, Severson coauthored a research paper along with my Freakonomics friend and
    0:04:19 coauthor Steve Levitt, which found that real estate agents do not necessarily act in the
    0:04:21 best interests of their clients.
    0:04:26 They argued that when you are selling a home, an agent may push you to accept the first
    0:04:30 decent offer rather than hold out for a better price.
    0:04:34 Most agents work on commission, which means they are only paid when there is a sale.
    0:04:40 Historically, the commission has been roughly 6%, which is split between the seller’s agent
    0:04:41 and the buyer’s agent.
    0:04:46 And then each of those agents often kick back half of their fee to their brokerage, which
    0:04:52 means that the seller’s agent earns roughly one and a half percent of the sale.
    0:04:58 Not enough, Severson and Levitt argued, to help the seller max out.
    0:05:01 I asked Severson if he got any hate mail when the original paper was published.
    0:05:06 Yeah, including some of my relatives, but it wasn’t true hate in that case.
    0:05:09 I have a bone to pick with you as a quote.
    0:05:10 What was the nature of these complaints then?
    0:05:12 What did they say that you got wrong?
    0:05:14 It was usually more diffuse than that.
    0:05:18 It was just like, “You’re painting us in a bad light.
    0:05:20 I do care about my clients.
    0:05:23 I would never do something that’s not in their best interest.”
    0:05:26 Well, both things can be true though, correct?
    0:05:27 Yes.
    0:05:30 I mean, you can have very good intentions, but if you’re in a system that’s exploitive
    0:05:36 of the consumer, then it’s exploitive of the consumer, even if you are a good, hardworking,
    0:05:38 honest person.
    0:05:39 I think that’s totally right.
    0:05:44 And I am happy to think of this as a problem with the system rather than a problem with
    0:05:45 the people.
    0:05:48 In fact, I think that’s the right way to think about it.
    0:05:54 Could you just describe how the residential real estate sector is an unusual sector, maybe
    0:05:56 atypical?
    0:06:01 What’s unusual about residential real estate is both sides have an agent at the same time.
    0:06:07 That’s not totally unique, but it’s atypical for agency-based purchase industries.
    0:06:09 I mean, it happens with lawyers, for instance.
    0:06:14 If I need to hire a lawyer to work on something, then the party that I’m in a conflict with,
    0:06:16 they’ve got a lawyer too.
    0:06:17 That’s right.
    0:06:20 The other side has their own sides and each side has their own representative.
    0:06:27 It is different from other agent-based middleman quote type purchases, like buying insurance
    0:06:32 through an insurance agent or using a financial advisor to buy stocks or securities.
    0:06:38 There’s only one party you’re dealing with, whereas residential real estate, you’ve got
    0:06:41 your agent and the other side has their agent.
    0:06:46 Let’s say I’m buying and I’ve got an agent and there’s a property I’m interested in.
    0:06:48 You’ve got their agent.
    0:06:53 It’s quite possible that my agent and that agent know each other and have perhaps collaborated
    0:06:58 before and indeed maybe even work for the same firm, is that possible?
    0:06:59 That’s totally true.
    0:07:05 In fact, quite likely in most markets, they might be familiar with each other and have
    0:07:09 worked together before and, importantly, expect to work together again.
    0:07:13 Quite often, they actually work for the same company.
    0:07:20 They’re actually sharing their compensation and the back office bits and their colleagues,
    0:07:22 which is not so typical in, say, law.
    0:07:27 If I wanted to sue you, Chad, I probably wouldn’t hire a lawyer who works at the same firm that
    0:07:28 your lawyer works at.
    0:07:29 Yeah.
    0:07:34 In fact, I think there are rules against that for lawyers where it’s just a matter, of course,
    0:07:35 in residential real estate.
    0:07:39 In fact, every once in a while, you get two sides represented by the same agent.
    0:07:42 They’re working both sides of the deal.
    0:07:50 What are the ramifications of the fact that a buy-side agent in one moment may be a sell-side
    0:07:52 agent the next moment?
    0:07:56 If I wanted to think about it positively, I could think, well, that makes sense because
    0:08:02 if I’m buying, my agent has also sold a lot of properties and therefore knows what to
    0:08:03 look for.
    0:08:07 On the other hand, I could think, well, it feels like maybe they are part of a fraternity
    0:08:11 that I’m not a part of and even though I feel like they’re representing me and me alone
    0:08:15 in fact, they work both sides of the aisle.
    0:08:16 Yeah.
    0:08:18 I think you nailed it with that description.
    0:08:23 There could be good things in terms of understanding the market from both sides.
    0:08:32 But on the other hand, these frequent repeated interactions between agents can lead to this
    0:08:37 behavior of, hey, this is how it works in this industry and it works well.
    0:08:41 If you want to do something different, I’m not sure we can keep working together.
    0:08:46 I’ve been in a case a few times as a buyer where I would say to the selling agent, I
    0:08:50 don’t have a buyer’s agent, I’m just going to operate on my own.
    0:08:55 So can we agree from the outset that we’re going to subtract 3% off the price?
    0:09:01 And I get the meanest looks and I’m told that that’s not the way it works.
    0:09:03 I mean, is that not the way it works?
    0:09:05 Well, there you go.
    0:09:08 You have the legal right to propose that.
    0:09:11 They have the legal right to take you up on it.
    0:09:12 But they choose not to.
    0:09:14 Now why do they choose not to?
    0:09:19 Because they know if they start deviating from how things work and everyone starts doing
    0:09:22 that, then the system might fall apart.
    0:09:28 The NAR will tell you, of course, you always have the right to negotiate over commissions.
    0:09:34 But your experience and the experience that I know other folks have had is when you try,
    0:09:39 you’re often met with what you describe, which is, I’m sorry, that’s just not how I do business.
    0:09:43 I was also told that my client would never accept that.
    0:09:47 And I’m like, why the heck would your client not accept that?
    0:09:52 Because the money is going to get deducted from the sale price that they get.
    0:09:54 Was that client in the room with you when that was said?
    0:09:56 The client was not in the room.
    0:09:58 Yeah, interesting.
    0:10:01 So how do sales commissions affect housing prices?
    0:10:03 Can you quantify that?
    0:10:06 That’s the $64 billion question.
    0:10:07 There’s some estimates out there.
    0:10:11 I’m not sure if anyone’s agreed on how big it actually is.
    0:10:19 I can say that there are a lot of countries who have agent mediated real estate transactions
    0:10:25 that end up with much lower effective transaction prices than the US.
    0:10:31 So the US historically has been up in this 5.5 to 6% commission rate.
    0:10:36 And there are other places down in the one, the 1.5% effective rate.
    0:10:41 If you look at those other countries and say, are there reasons why selling houses should
    0:10:45 be fundamentally cheaper in those places, you would say no, and certainly not by a multiple
    0:10:47 factor that we’ve seen.
    0:10:52 So it’s just hard not to say that, man, these prices seem way higher than they need to be
    0:10:59 to get the job done.
    0:11:04 You may be wondering, why do real estate agents get paid on a percentage basis in the first
    0:11:05 place?
    0:11:12 Why not an hourly rate like lawyers and accountants and electricians and consultants and, well,
    0:11:13 like a lot of people?
    0:11:20 To answer that question, you have to go back to 1908 and the founding of the National Association
    0:11:22 of Real Estate Boards.
    0:11:28 Back then, local boards in places like Chicago, Omaha, and Los Angeles had set fixed commission
    0:11:31 fees, and this eventually became the standard.
    0:11:37 In 1950, the Supreme Court declared that this amounted to price fixing in violation of the
    0:11:38 Sherman Act.
    0:11:44 The workaround was fee suggestions, which some observers thought looked an awful lot like
    0:11:48 the fixed schedules that they supposedly replaced.
    0:11:54 In 1972, the National Association of Real Estate Boards became the National Association
    0:11:56 of Realtors.
    0:12:02 It didn’t take long for the federal government to once again declare their practice anti-competitive.
    0:12:10 This government scrutiny and the legal back-and-forthing has continued ever since, and yet commissions
    0:12:15 have remained relatively steady at 5 to 6 percent.
    0:12:18 Home prices, meanwhile, have continued to rise.
    0:12:24 The current median price in the U.S. is around $400,000, double what it was 20 years ago.
    0:12:29 The same percent commission on a higher price means a higher commission.
    0:12:35 There’s nothing really you can look at in the cost of selling a house that would scale
    0:12:38 up one for one with the price of the house.
    0:12:43 It shouldn’t be twice as expensive to sell a house that costs twice as much.
    0:12:48 Imagine that instead of buying a house 20 years ago, you were buying 1,000 shares of
    0:12:51 stock in Apple Inc.
    0:12:55 The share price back then, adjusting for splits, was around $1.
    0:13:00 So, the stock would cost you $1,000, and if you went through a brokerage, you might pay
    0:13:05 a $20 fee, which works out to a 2 percent commission.
    0:13:10 Now imagine you buy 1,000 shares of Apple stock today.
    0:13:16 The share price is well above $200 now, so it would cost you over $200,000.
    0:13:22 Did you still expect to pay a 2 percent brokerage fee, a $4,000 commission?
    0:13:24 No, you would not.
    0:13:28 In fact, you would probably pay close to zero.
    0:13:34 In most industries, transaction prices fall over time, thanks to technology, economies
    0:13:37 of scale, and competition.
    0:13:41 But again, residential real estate is not like most industries.
    0:13:46 So does this commission inflation mean that every real estate agent is getting filthy
    0:13:47 rich?
    0:13:48 It very much does not.
    0:13:52 Let’s bring in another economist to help explain.
    0:13:56 I’m Sonya Gilbuck, and I’m an assistant professor at Baruch College.
    0:14:01 Most of my research is about the housing market, and how buyers and sellers find each other,
    0:14:05 and how real estate agents help them in that process.
    0:14:09 And are you putting “help” them in quotes?
    0:14:15 I mean, they’re supposed to help, and because in the US, most of the transactions go through
    0:14:20 a real estate agent, I’m putting “help” in a way that there’s no alternative for the
    0:14:22 consumers.
    0:14:27 To be fair, there are alternatives.
    0:14:33 It is legal in every state to buy or sell a home without representation, but it is rare.
    0:14:39 Only around 7% of sellers go the route known as FISBO, or for sale by owner.
    0:14:45 What Gilbuck wanted to understand was what happens in the other 93%, and she was particularly
    0:14:50 interested in how much the individual real estate agent matters.
    0:14:53 The main takeaway is that not all agents are the same.
    0:14:59 Gilbuck recently published a study, along with her husband and fellow economist Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham,
    0:15:05 that looked at data from the MLSs or multiple listing services in 60 markets across the
    0:15:06 US.
    0:15:13 Around 95% of MLSs are owned by the National Association of Realtors.
    0:15:18 An MLS is a database where agents post their sales listings and communicate with one another
    0:15:25 about prices and commissions, including how much a buyer’s agent should expect to receive.
    0:15:31 This is called a cooperating compensation agreement, and it is at the root of the alleged fixing
    0:15:32 of rates.
    0:15:38 Gilbuck and Goldsmith-Pinkham used this MLS data to analyze the comings and goings of
    0:15:42 individual agents as well as their performance.
    0:15:43 Would they find?
    0:15:48 There’s some really experienced agents that offer different quality service from really
    0:15:49 new agents.
    0:15:54 There’s a lot of inexperienced agents out there, and they provide a much lower quality
    0:16:00 service in terms of probability of sale, which is especially important in a down market.
    0:16:05 This may not surprise you that experienced agents tend to be better, but when you consider
    0:16:10 how many agents are out there, you may be concerned with your odds of getting a good
    0:16:11 one.
    0:16:16 Roughly 3 million people in the US currently hold a real estate license.
    0:16:21 Remember what I said earlier about the total number of home sales in a year, 4 million.
    0:16:25 Even if there are two agents per sale, one on the buy side and one on the sale side,
    0:16:28 that gets us to 8 million transactions.
    0:16:33 Do we really need three agents for every eight transactions?
    0:16:37 So why does the market attract this many agents?
    0:16:38 Here’s Chad Severson again.
    0:16:45 One way to think about it is just the gross pot of money involved is enormous.
    0:16:52 Total number of houses sold per year times average price times 5.5% or 6%.
    0:16:56 That is billions and billions of dollars.
    0:17:05 If that’s the pie and it is extremely low cost to get in and try to start slicing off
    0:17:10 a piece of that pie, you’re going to have a lot of bakers trying to cut the pie.
    0:17:14 Now, it ends up there’s so many, the slice that any average person gets is really tiny.
    0:17:20 But I think that’s one way to think about it is just a ton of money, super easy to get
    0:17:21 into.
    0:17:22 How easy is it?
    0:17:24 Here’s Sonya Gillbook.
    0:17:30 It depends on the state, but in most states you have to take a course, which could be
    0:17:35 a 50-hour course, so you put your foot down and you can be done with it in a week.
    0:17:39 And then you take a state test and you pay a license fee.
    0:17:44 It’s just so different from any other profession where you have to get a degree or you have
    0:17:48 to get an apprenticeship before you can actually practice.
    0:17:54 And it’s really easy to get a job because the agents essentially work for themselves.
    0:17:58 When an office hires an agent, they hire them as a contractor, so they’re not on the hook
    0:18:04 for any salary at all, they’re just getting part of their commission, so they don’t lose
    0:18:07 anything by hiring as many people as they want.
    0:18:14 As Gillbook said earlier, experienced agents perform better than newbies, but newbies continue
    0:18:15 to flood the market.
    0:18:16 Why?
    0:18:24 We find that the reason why there’s so many inexperienced people is because of the “fix
    0:18:26 commission rates.”
    0:18:32 In other words, that five or six percent commission is so attractive, almost like a lottery payout,
    0:18:38 that it draws many new players even though they have a slim chance of getting that payout.
    0:18:41 So what would happen if commissions were smaller?
    0:18:47 We find that if the commissions were more competitive, there would be many fewer agents.
    0:18:52 There would be a lot more experienced and more houses would be able to sell.
    0:18:58 So essentially, addressing the commissions is one of the most important ways that we
    0:19:02 can make this industry more efficient.
    0:19:07 The National Association of Realtors insists that commissions are not fixed, that fees
    0:19:09 are negotiable.
    0:19:14 That may be true in theory, but in practice, the NAR has maintained its leverage.
    0:19:17 How do they do that?
    0:19:23 We live in an economy where new technologies and new entrants are constantly pushing aside
    0:19:24 the old guard.
    0:19:28 Why hasn’t that happened in residential real estate?
    0:19:30 Here’s Chad Severson again.
    0:19:35 Real information has radically changed a lot of industries.
    0:19:42 Going back a few decades, travel agency lost 60 percent of its revenue.
    0:19:47 When people figured out they could buy airline tickets themselves online, and airlines figured
    0:19:50 out flyers were happy to do that.
    0:19:52 Basically one of two things happened.
    0:19:56 Either the industry does totally restructure itself.
    0:19:59 That’s kind of what happened with travel agency.
    0:20:04 Or it’s a little bit of a squeezing the balloon thing like car sales, where they moved some
    0:20:10 of the obfuscation, for lack of a better word, to other parts of the transaction.
    0:20:16 Or they just try to make profit on other dimensions now through repair deals or whatever.
    0:20:20 So that tends to be how a lot of industries have responded.
    0:20:25 Residential real estate has changed less, and I think it’s because you have this two-sidedness
    0:20:27 of the deal.
    0:20:33 So it’s not just one agent decides to do things differently and things start falling
    0:20:34 apart.
    0:20:38 If one starts doing things differently, the other one can say, “Oh, no, you don’t.”
    0:20:40 And here’s what’s going to happen if you do.
    0:20:45 What you’re describing sounds like a word that we don’t like to throw around casually,
    0:20:49 but it’s a word that you certainly used to describe this ecosystem, which is collusion.
    0:20:54 In what ways does collusion exist in this system?
    0:21:00 There’s explicit collusion, the smoke-filled rooms where parties in an industry get together
    0:21:06 and say, “Hey, let’s make a plan so we can monopolize this thing and make more money.”
    0:21:12 I don’t think there’s ever been evidence of this happening widespread in real estate.
    0:21:17 The kind of collusion that Steve and I talked about in the paper is what an economist might
    0:21:25 call tacit collusion, which is there’s never an explicit agreement and no one’s signed
    0:21:29 contracts of this form, which would be completely illegal.
    0:21:35 But there is a sense of, “Okay, we kind of all know how this thing works, wink, wink,
    0:21:38 and this thing works well for us.
    0:21:44 And if we just don’t rock the boat too hard, we can keep it together.”
    0:21:53 But in 2023, the NAR was the main defendant in a class-action lawsuit in Missouri.
    0:21:57 The lead plaintiff, Rhonda Burnett, argued that in 2016, she and her husband wanted to
    0:22:03 sell a home, and her real estate agent gave her a form with four commission rate boxes
    0:22:08 to choose from, 6%, 7%, 8%, or 9%.
    0:22:14 When Burnett asked if the commission was negotiable, which the NAR says it always is, she was told
    0:22:19 that a lower commission might diminish the likelihood of her home being shown.
    0:22:24 The Burnett’s and other plaintiffs argued that the NAR and several brokerages conspired
    0:22:33 to impose a “blanket, unilateral, and effectively non-negotiable offer of buyer/broker compensation.”
    0:22:37 The trial evidence included a training script from one of the brokerages.
    0:22:42 It instructed agents to say, “If an agent has 10 different houses, nine of which come
    0:22:48 with a 3% commission, one of which comes with a 2.5% commission, which houses do you think
    0:22:50 they’re going to show?”
    0:22:54 It took a jury barely two hours to rule against the NAR.
    0:23:01 The court awarded damages of $1.8 billion, which in a settlement, the NAR negotiated
    0:23:04 down to $418 million.
    0:23:06 But the trouble is not over.
    0:23:13 The NAR is facing lawsuits in several other states, charging monopolistic behavior.
    0:23:17 Coming up after the break, what does the NAR have to say for itself?
    0:23:22 The settlement was part of our agreement where we didn’t admit to any wrongdoing.
    0:23:23 I’m Stephen Dubner.
    0:23:24 This is Free Economics Radio.
    0:23:25 We’ll be right back.
    0:23:44 Okay, in the first chunk of this episode, we heard from economists who were beating
    0:23:47 up on the National Association of Realtors.
    0:23:50 Let’s hear now from the NAR.
    0:23:51 My name is Kevin Sears.
    0:23:58 I am a broker associate with Lemakia Realty in Springfield, Massachusetts.
    0:24:02 And I’m the 2024 president of the National Association of Realtors.
    0:24:04 Yeah, you almost left that one out.
    0:24:06 That’s a big deal, no?
    0:24:10 Yeah, typically when I do the interviews, I’m used to just talking with local media
    0:24:13 and they want to know the brokerage I’m with.
    0:24:14 I understand.
    0:24:15 Give me a little bit on the NAR.
    0:24:17 What is the NAR exactly?
    0:24:23 The National Association of Realtors is a trade organization that has about 1.5 million
    0:24:25 realtor members across the country.
    0:24:30 We are a trade association that advocates for our members and for property owners’
    0:24:32 rights across the country.
    0:24:36 What share of all real estate agents belong to the National Association of Realtors?
    0:24:41 I think that there’s probably close to about 3 million licensees across the country.
    0:24:46 And so we’ve got about half of them that are members of the National Association of Realtors,
    0:24:50 which part of the requirement to be a member is you have to subscribe to the Code of Ethics,
    0:24:53 which is very important for us, and it’s been around for over 100 years.
    0:24:57 I’ve read that the organization holds more than a billion dollars in assets.
    0:25:00 Why would a trade organization have that many assets?
    0:25:03 Yeah, I’m not sure where you read that.
    0:25:04 That was the New York Times.
    0:25:07 Yeah, the New York Times has been known to get some things wrong.
    0:25:11 What I’ll tell you is that the National Association of Realtors, we absolutely do have some assets.
    0:25:16 And part of the assets that we have are properties that we own, that we use.
    0:25:20 We also have reserves built up from dues from our members.
    0:25:27 We also have different wholly-owned subsidiaries that invest in property technology and that
    0:25:33 sort of thing.
    0:25:43 The NAR charges annual dues of $156 and with 1.5 million members, well, it pays to be the
    0:25:46 country’s biggest trade association.
    0:25:49 But when you’re thinking about real estate agents, the important number to keep in mind,
    0:25:58 the top line number, is the total amount that Americans pay them every year, around $85 billion.
    0:26:00 That is not the value of the real estate they sell.
    0:26:04 That is $85 billion in sales commissions.
    0:26:09 You might take this to mean that those five and six percent commissions, whether set
    0:26:14 by tacit collusion or otherwise, are simply too high.
    0:26:17 Here’s what Kevin Sears says.
    0:26:20 Commissions are entirely negotiable and they have been for the entirety of the 30 years
    0:26:23 that I’ve been a real estate licensee and a realtor.
    0:26:27 Economists that I know when they look at the NAR, National Association of Realtors, they
    0:26:32 describe it as somewhere between a monopoly and a mafia, that it’s got all the power on
    0:26:35 the selling and buying side of the housing market in the U.S.
    0:26:39 I assume you disagree with that characterization.
    0:26:40 Tell me why they’re wrong.
    0:26:44 Yeah, I take great offense at that characterization.
    0:26:50 There’s over 3 million across the country and we have only half of those licensees as members.
    0:26:52 Consumers have tremendous choice right now.
    0:26:58 They can choose who to hire, what to pay, or to go it on their own.
    0:27:06 The fact that we are the only national organization that has reached to all 50 states and we have
    0:27:13 the ability to lobby in our nation’s capital, that’s a good thing, not only for our members,
    0:27:18 but for our industry and for the American consumers who rely on us to promote private
    0:27:22 property rights and the protections thereof.
    0:27:23 Let’s talk about the recent settlement.
    0:27:26 Tell me what it means for your organization and what kind of changes you’re making because
    0:27:27 of that.
    0:27:33 Unfortunately, a jury of eight in Missouri found us liable in federal court.
    0:27:41 As a result, there was a jury verdict of $1.8 billion since it was an antitrust case that
    0:27:46 meant it was tripled up just shy of $5.4 billion.
    0:27:51 We did not have the resources when it came to being able to satisfy that jury verdict,
    0:27:55 and so we negotiated with the plaintiffs on a settlement.
    0:27:57 The settlement does have a financial component.
    0:28:04 Over the next three years, the National Association of Realtors will pay $418 million as part
    0:28:05 of the settlement.
    0:28:07 There are a couple of other things that come along with that.
    0:28:12 The first is that the settlement was part of our agreement where we didn’t admit to
    0:28:14 any wrongdoing.
    0:28:19 We do believe that the practices were legal, meaning that they were allowed by the law,
    0:28:23 but with that said, we did agree to make some practice changes, and there’s two major components
    0:28:26 to the practice changes.
    0:28:29 The first has to do with the multiple listing service.
    0:28:34 There will no longer be allowed an offer of cooperating compensation displayed on the
    0:28:36 multiple listing service.
    0:28:41 With that said, offers of compensation can still be made off the NLS.
    0:28:46 The second big change has to do with buyers.
    0:28:52 If buyers want to tour a home, they can expect to have a written agreement presented to them
    0:28:57 where it will spell out the services that will be provided by the realtor and the fee
    0:29:00 that that realtor will be looking to get paid.
    0:29:04 The seller may still offer compensation to their agent, but what the buyer will need
    0:29:10 to understand is that if the seller does not offer compensation, does not offer the amount
    0:29:13 that is in their agreement, the buyer will have to come to the closing table with extra
    0:29:21 money to pay for their representative.
    0:29:26 So that is the take on the NAR settlement from the president of the NAR.
    0:29:29 We spoke with another high-level executive there.
    0:29:34 Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.
    0:29:39 And how would you describe the state of the housing market at the moment?
    0:29:41 Well, for homeowners, it is great news.
    0:29:48 I mean, people have seen the home price rise roughly 50% from pre-COVID days.
    0:29:53 But for the real estate professionals, the past two years has been quite difficult.
    0:29:59 High mortgage rate along with record high home prices and limited inventory has restricted
    0:30:01 business opportunity.
    0:30:06 Home sales essentially trending at 30-year low levels, even though their past clients
    0:30:11 are all happy, super excited about having been a homeowner.
    0:30:16 So your organization, the NAR, recently got a pretty big spanking from a federal jury trial
    0:30:19 in Missouri in a class action suit brought by homeowners.
    0:30:23 What’s your response to that verdict and then the settlement that the NAR entered into?
    0:30:27 The real estate profession is one of the most competitive out there.
    0:30:31 It’s almost like economic textbook definition of perfect competition.
    0:30:37 You have so many new intran every year, roughly 200,000 new people, entrepreneurs, trying
    0:30:39 to test out their skill set.
    0:30:43 And then you have roughly 200,000 realtors who gave you their best.
    0:30:45 But they said, “No, it’s not for me.”
    0:30:52 And then of course you had all different business models, full service, limited service, discount
    0:30:53 brokerages.
    0:30:58 And great thing about America is that Americans can do it by themselves if they want to.
    0:31:02 So I thought the market was competitive, but I guess the lawyers can always convince few
    0:31:04 people to get the verdict they want.
    0:31:07 Here’s something you said about the lawsuit and the settlement.
    0:31:12 You said a couple of lawyers were able to find two, three unhappy owners and make a lawsuit
    0:31:16 and you have nine, 11 jury members, so you can count the number of people involved in
    0:31:17 the lawsuit.
    0:31:23 Now, to me, Lawrence, it sounds like you’re saying the NAR was screwed over by the legal
    0:31:24 and jury system.
    0:31:26 Is that a fair assessment?
    0:31:32 Again, as an economist, a look at the competitive nature, the free entry and exit of the people
    0:31:33 in the profession.
    0:31:39 The only other industry that is more competitive, more dynamic than the real estate brokerage
    0:31:43 industry is in the restaurant, constantly coming in, constantly going out.
    0:31:48 So let’s say there was a couple of unhappy consumers of a restaurant that may bring a
    0:31:53 lawyer to sue the restaurant to say, “Look, what they promised did not match the expectation
    0:31:54 of it.”
    0:31:59 But to make it into a class action lawsuit, to have all the restaurant across the country
    0:32:02 be impacted, is that a fair judgment?
    0:32:08 When we take survey of consumers, recent home buyers, recent home sellers, every year we
    0:32:12 have been doing it for 40 years, the numbers barely budge.
    0:32:17 Essentially, 70% say they really enjoy working with a realtor.
    0:32:22 Who conducted the survey that you’re citing about the customer satisfaction with realtors?
    0:32:28 Survey was commissioned by NAR, so when the consumers essentially say that they are happy,
    0:32:30 what was the key reason?
    0:32:31 And they say it’s the trust factor.
    0:32:33 I don’t have to get down to all this paperwork.
    0:32:37 I trust what my realtor is relaying that information.
    0:32:42 I can imagine that if an industry or a trade association like yours is commissioning a
    0:32:49 survey to understand how happy people are with their services, it might be tempting to find
    0:32:53 within that large data set of all people who have completed transactions, the home buyers
    0:32:58 or sellers who you know were particularly satisfied with their transaction.
    0:33:04 Pursuade me that the data here are more representative than that and not cherry-picked like that.
    0:33:08 One can talk to any homeowner, just knock on the door and say, “Did you buy a home with
    0:33:09 a realtor?
    0:33:11 Who was the name of the realtor?
    0:33:13 Were you satisfied with the service?”
    0:33:17 I’m pretty confident the result will be very, very similar.
    0:33:23 How is the recent NAR settlement changing things for not only the organization but the
    0:33:28 brokerages down the line and then the real estate agents down the line?
    0:33:33 The realtors are quite optimistic about the new rules that don’t agree with the verdict,
    0:33:39 but given that the verdict is in place, sometimes life is never fair on every angle, but entrepreneurs
    0:33:42 always adapt to new rules.
    0:33:47 They’re explaining to their clients, buyers are understanding they have to sign the form,
    0:33:54 and for the home sellers, it is irrational to ignore offers that say you have to pay
    0:33:59 buyer agent because those offer maybe high price or all cash that doesn’t involve some
    0:34:06 complication later, so the process moves on, but at the moment, the market is primarily
    0:34:14 determined by economic factors, inventory availability, mortgage rate, job market situation.
    0:34:19 How do you see real estate transactions being conducted differently in five or ten years
    0:34:24 based on the new rules put in place by this settlement?
    0:34:25 We are in the very first innings.
    0:34:29 There will be a lot of trial and errors, and there will be a lot of new companies trying
    0:34:34 to see what type of new model will best fit under the new rules, we don’t know what the
    0:34:35 numbers are.
    0:34:40 NAR never collects data on the commission rate, and the reasoning for that is that we
    0:34:45 don’t want to set a focus point, so somehow NAR said this is the average rate, and everybody
    0:34:49 focus on that figure and leads to some tacit collusion, we don’t want that, we want the
    0:34:54 market to be competitive, we don’t study the commission, but anecdotally, some people are
    0:34:58 saying, well, now they are able to submit an offer with a little higher commission than
    0:35:02 what they had done before, others are saying a little lower.
    0:35:08 Only concerning factor that I have is the first time buyers, especially minority first
    0:35:13 time home buyers, because we look at the wealth distribution in America, we understand the
    0:35:19 American history about generational wealth transfer, and if somehow it becomes the norm
    0:35:26 that the buyer have to pay out of their pocket to their agent, essentially you are denying
    0:35:32 the people in more moderate wealth circumstances, which in the US is essentially minority home
    0:35:33 buyers.
    0:35:37 So you said Lawrence that the NAR does not gather data on commissions because you don’t
    0:35:43 want it to seem like there is a collusive element there, but people do gather those data, economists
    0:35:48 do that, we talked to Chad Severson, he and others have pretty decent data, it shows that
    0:35:53 the traditional rate of 6% has maybe slipped a little bit over the past couple decades,
    0:35:57 it’s into the five something range, but that it’s pretty consistent across the country
    0:36:03 and in fact, it’s pretty consistent even in high value markets like New York City versus
    0:36:09 lower price markets, which to me seems strange because 6% of a $5 million apartment is an
    0:36:16 awful lot bigger commission for not necessarily five times the work of a million dollar house
    0:36:20 somewhere or 10 times the work of a $500,000 house somewhere.
    0:36:25 So why do you think that commissions are so routinely in that range in so many different
    0:36:26 markets?
    0:36:33 I am aware of what outsiders are studying and again, as long as you have competition,
    0:36:35 let the market settle what it would be.
    0:36:40 I don’t know the particulars of selling a home in New York City, maybe doing a co-op,
    0:36:46 sell if it’s a little more extra complication compared to home selling out in say, middle
    0:36:51 America, in Kansas, and maybe part of this settlement, maybe there’s broader knowledge
    0:36:54 that people can negotiate.
    0:36:59 As we know, there are many consumer habits, it is based out of inertia, but with more
    0:37:03 publicity, maybe people will ask more questions and those are all good.
    0:37:15 More competition, more consumer awareness, all positive.
    0:37:21 So that’s how Lawrence Yoon, the chief economist of the NAR, sees the after effects of the
    0:37:23 lawsuit and settlement.
    0:37:26 And how about NAR president Kevin Sears?
    0:37:31 I do think there may be a little time of a learning curve for agents that are not used
    0:37:35 to having to present a written agreement to a buyer.
    0:37:40 What I can tell you is that on the sell side, the seller is going to have a professional
    0:37:44 representative and the conversation is going to be very, very similar to how it’s always
    0:37:45 been.
    0:37:48 The buyer is going to make sure that they clearly explain about the compensation for
    0:37:53 the buyer’s agent and the fact that commissions are negotiable.
    0:37:58 This is just giving our members a great opportunity to have those extra conversations with the
    0:38:04 consumer up front about what they can expect in the buying process, what services and expertise
    0:38:11 and value the realtor will bring to the transaction and how much they are looking to get paid
    0:38:17 and how they will get paid.
    0:38:21 Do these explanations leave you a bit confused?
    0:38:23 Yeah, me too.
    0:38:30 Coming up after the break, the financial incentives may change in home buying, but how about the
    0:38:32 behavioral incentives?
    0:38:38 If I go out to dinner and the restaurant accidentally puts an extra $1,000 on my bill, I’m incensed,
    0:38:42 but when it comes to selling a million dollars, I say $1,000 here, $1,000 there, I just want
    0:38:43 to finish this.
    0:38:44 What does it matter?
    0:38:45 I’m Stephen Dubner.
    0:38:47 This is Freakonomics Radio.
    0:38:50 We’ll be right back.
    0:39:04 Okay, I feel we need a quick recap.
    0:39:09 The NAR, or National Association of Realtors, recently agreed to pay damages of more than
    0:39:15 $400 million and change some policies after they were beaten in a class action lawsuit
    0:39:17 in Missouri.
    0:39:22 One change is that home buyers will need to sign a compensation agreement with their agents
    0:39:29 up front, and Realtors can no longer post what are called cooperative compensation offers
    0:39:31 on multiple listing services.
    0:39:38 Theoretically, this might lead to lower commissions for home buyers and sellers, and economists
    0:39:42 who analyze this market think this might lead to lower housing prices.
    0:39:48 I was surprised to hear Lawrence Youn, the NAR’s chief economist, say earlier that they
    0:39:51 don’t compile data on Realtor commissions.
    0:39:55 The reasoning for that is that we don’t want to set a focus point.
    0:40:00 I did ask him for some other NAR numbers.
    0:40:07 You talk about the new entrance into the NAR every year is about 200,000 new entrepreneurs.
    0:40:10 That sounds to me like a very high rate of churn, especially if that many people are
    0:40:16 leaving each time, which suggests that the median Realtor is making very, very, very
    0:40:19 little money because it’s really hard to get listings, especially when you’re starting
    0:40:20 out.
    0:40:24 What can you tell us about the annual earnings of a median Realtor?
    0:40:29 When people look at the Realtor profession, sometimes people think, “Well, maybe it’s
    0:40:30 like teachers.
    0:40:32 All the Realtors get similar pay.”
    0:40:33 But it’s not.
    0:40:34 It’s an entrepreneurial business.
    0:40:36 It’s like a restaurant business.
    0:40:39 Some restaurants are driving year after year.
    0:40:44 Some Realtors are driving year after year, and then other restaurants are fairly new.
    0:40:47 Maybe they will eventually drive, or maybe they will struggle.
    0:40:53 The median income is around $45,000, but there’s a huge distribution.
    0:40:59 About one-third make less than $20,000, and then you have about 20% make six figures.
    0:41:04 The entrepreneurs who are coming into the industry say, “Well, I believe that I have
    0:41:08 this entrepreneurial skill set, and they give it a try.”
    0:41:09 One has to admire that.
    0:41:15 Of course, not everyone will succeed because of the competitive nature of the marketplace.
    0:41:18 Tell me a bit about the demographic makeup of your membership.
    0:41:25 About two-thirds women, one-third men, and the median age is around 55.
    0:41:31 Their income level is not comparable to what other professions would possibly offer and stability.
    0:41:39 Yet, I think the joy of seeing that first-time buyer get that home, and then for most homeowners,
    0:41:41 they become friends.
    0:41:45 Being part of the community, I think there’s some certain intangible satisfaction that comes
    0:41:47 from working in real estate.
    0:41:51 One of the interesting conversations among economists and others over the past 10 years
    0:41:56 has been how much free labor was provided by women in the home that was never valued,
    0:42:01 never counted, no price put on it, and people are now trying to factor that into the economy.
    0:42:07 With so many women as realtors, with so many of them earning not very much money, it strikes
    0:42:12 me that this is yet another area in which a lot of women are doing a lot of work and
    0:42:13 getting paid very little.
    0:42:16 Is that uncharitable, or do you think that’s accurate?
    0:42:19 This is a voluntary choice as people are trying it out.
    0:42:22 Sometimes it could be for supplemental income for the household.
    0:42:23 We don’t know.
    0:42:29 One interesting part is that we have seen two years of very difficult business opportunity.
    0:42:35 Yet, the membership number has barely budged, which is implying that even with the income
    0:42:40 level being what it is, some people may be saying, “Look, I saw another realtor get that
    0:42:42 six-figure income.
    0:42:46 Maybe I can be that.”
    0:42:51 And here’s something the economist Sonia Gillbook told us that she had come across in her research.
    0:42:58 In our dataset, we find that if you take a random agent, so someone who has some history,
    0:43:04 there’s a 30% chance that they have never had a transaction before.
    0:43:09 It’s hard to think of another profession where 30% of the workers are unpaid.
    0:43:15 If you don’t sell a listing that you control, or if you don’t connect with a buyer who finds
    0:43:21 a home and actually buys it, there is zero compensation, actually less than zero.
    0:43:26 You may pay fees to the NAR, and then there are all the costs associated with trying to
    0:43:28 get a sales commission.
    0:43:33 So you can see why there is so much churn at the bottom of the pyramid.
    0:43:38 At the top of the pyramid, meanwhile, there is a relatively small fraction of agents who
    0:43:45 earn a good living since they are routinely tapping into that five or 6% commission pool.
    0:43:47 This is what economists call a tournament model.
    0:43:53 A lot of players are hoping to climb that pyramid competing against the field while
    0:43:56 knowing that success is unlikely.
    0:44:01 In this regard, selling real estate is less like a profession and more like the path followed
    0:44:05 by artists and performers and athletes.
    0:44:11 I went back to Chad Severson, the University of Chicago economist, to ask why this is the
    0:44:12 case.
    0:44:15 It’s just the nature of the industry.
    0:44:19 All that happens when house prices go up is you get more agents.
    0:44:22 This structure now doesn’t help the average agent.
    0:44:25 Maybe it helps the ones who do super duper well.
    0:44:30 It helps the brokerages because the more volume they get under their umbrella, the better they
    0:44:31 are.
    0:44:36 It helps the NAR because the more agents there are, the more dues and fees they collect.
    0:44:42 But at the individual agent level, this structure isn’t what’s making what they think
    0:44:44 would be nice about the industry nice.
    0:44:47 The flexibility, I can do this part-time, et cetera.
    0:44:51 You could do that in a world where you get paid by the hour too, right?
    0:44:56 Knowing what you know about real estate sales and knowing what you know about incentives
    0:45:01 generally as an economist, how do you think this change in incentives is going to change
    0:45:07 behavior, whether among buyers, sellers, or agents on the buy side or on the sell side?
    0:45:10 One possibility is nothing changes.
    0:45:15 The current structure is completely allowable under the new settlement.
    0:45:21 It’s just the way that that structure is agreed to has to be a little more explicit and there
    0:45:27 are more rules about how the communication of the commission rates are done.
    0:45:33 But if you follow those rules, you can still have, say, a 6% total commission split evenly
    0:45:36 between the buyer’s agent and the seller’s agent.
    0:45:44 What might happen is the new rules give more leeway to agents who want to do things differently.
    0:45:50 Let’s say that, I mean, this is a very unlikely scenario, but let’s say the NAR looks at what’s
    0:45:53 coming and says, “Oh, we’re losing our grip here.
    0:46:01 Our lovely model from the old days that made a lot of money for a handful of agents is
    0:46:07 going away,” and they come to you and say, “Professor Severson, I know you’ve been a
    0:46:10 critic of this industry to some degree, but you also appreciate the value that some real
    0:46:12 estate agents can bring.
    0:46:16 We want to design a new system from scratch for home sales.
    0:46:19 What would that look like in your mind?”
    0:46:24 I think it makes a lot of sense just to start with an hourly fee.
    0:46:29 We hire a lot of professional services at an hourly rate.
    0:46:33 The hourly rates are settable agent by agent.
    0:46:35 You want competition in this market too.
    0:46:39 Certainly you don’t want any coordinated hourly rate.
    0:46:41 It doesn’t solve all the problems.
    0:46:46 You’re still going to have information gaps, and it’ll create its own.
    0:46:50 When you pay someone by the hour, you get a lot of hours that maybe you don’t really
    0:46:53 need, so it’s not a panacea.
    0:46:57 Let’s assume that the NAR settlement really does change how the commission structure works,
    0:47:03 and let’s pretend that five or 10 years from now, it is a very disintermediated market,
    0:47:07 the way that travel agents were disintermediated, which means a lot of people are booking travel
    0:47:08 on their own.
    0:47:14 I don’t know really how large this movement is, but I have read about a return to travel
    0:47:15 agents.
    0:47:21 Consumers want them because even though, yeah, I can book the flight and the hotel and rental
    0:47:27 car and other things I want to do all by myself online, it’s a lot of work, and it’s a hassle,
    0:47:29 and it can be confusing and so on.
    0:47:34 Could you see a future in which a similar thing happens with real estate sales that
    0:47:39 agents really do get disintermediated and that buyers and sellers end up doing a lot
    0:47:45 on their own, and they don’t like it, and they want to return to the current ecosystem
    0:47:48 as inefficient as it may be for buyers and sellers?
    0:47:54 I can see people trying it out on their own and not liking it, certainly.
    0:47:59 There’s probably going to be a set of really sophisticated sellers and buyers who will just
    0:48:04 keep doing it by themselves, but I think what you describe could happen, which is the typical
    0:48:09 how sellers like, geez, I might have the mechanism to do it, but I really don’t know what I’m
    0:48:10 doing enough.
    0:48:14 I don’t have the time, et cetera, et cetera, and so they want to hire an agent.
    0:48:21 Again, there are reasons why agents are valuable, but if the structure compensation falls apart
    0:48:26 and people do want to run back to agents, I understand why that would happen.
    0:48:31 I would hope the compensation structure doesn’t reverse itself back to what we’ve got now.
    0:48:33 So Chad, I know you’ve got four kids.
    0:48:35 I believe half of them have gone off to college.
    0:48:36 Is that right?
    0:48:37 Yep.
    0:48:42 Okay, let’s say the other half go off to college and you and your wife say, hey, time for a
    0:48:43 life change.
    0:48:47 We’re going to up-size, down-size, move somewhere warm, whatever.
    0:48:52 How do you think about selling the place you’re in now and buying the place you end up wanting
    0:48:53 to buy?
    0:48:57 I would consider doing a for sale buy owner.
    0:49:01 If I did, I would quote, cooperate with buyer’s agents.
    0:49:09 In other words, if the buyer’s agent was expecting to be compensated through a split with the
    0:49:16 sell side agent, I’d effectively pay money because I would know that if they weren’t
    0:49:20 being compensated by their own client, they’ve got no incentive to bring their client to
    0:49:21 my house.
    0:49:26 There are reasons to have a sell side agent that are valuable, particularly in the neighborhood
    0:49:27 I live in.
    0:49:34 It’s sort of a small niche market and it’s good to have that pre-advertising component
    0:49:39 that having a sell side agent can give you because they talk to other people in the market.
    0:49:40 What about the buying side?
    0:49:44 Let’s say you spend a couple hours looking at things online and you say, oh, these look
    0:49:49 like three properties I’d really like to go check out, would you want to hire a buy side
    0:49:51 agent to do that or would you want to do it on your own?
    0:49:55 I think I could really handle the buy side myself.
    0:50:01 The exception is if I thought the market were tight enough that having knowledge of sales
    0:50:07 to come was important, just toodling around on the internet myself, I’m not going to know
    0:50:12 houses until it’s for sale and in a hot market, it might be essentially gone by that point.
    0:50:17 In that world, I might consider a buyer’s agent, but in a slower market, I think the
    0:50:23 agency component I would do myself.
    0:50:29 That again was Chad Severson from the University of Chicago, thanks to him and to Sonya Gilbook
    0:50:35 from Baruch College as well as to Lawrence Yoon and Kevin Sears from the National Association
    0:50:36 of Realtors.
    0:50:42 I’d love to know what you think about this topic and about this episode.
    0:50:46 Our email is radio@freakonomics.com.
    0:50:51 Coming up next time on the show, a lot of big things happened in 2024.
    0:50:57 One of the biggest was a great leap forward in artificial intelligence.
    0:51:00 Or was it such a great leap?
    0:51:03 There is an exceptional level of hype.
    0:51:07 That bubble is in many ways in the middle bursting right now.
    0:51:12 But just in case the bubble is not bursting, what’s the best way to think about the AI
    0:51:13 future?
    0:51:19 It really is about how you see the value of technology versus the value of people.
    0:51:24 That’s next week in our regular time slot, which is now Friday mornings Eastern time.
    0:51:28 But before then, you will get a bonus episode.
    0:51:32 You remember me telling you we were going to San Francisco for a live show?
    0:51:33 Well, we did that.
    0:51:38 We spoke with a couple of economists and the outgoing mayor.
    0:51:44 Pull out those phones because you guys are going to see a different mayor breed.
    0:51:45 That’s next time.
    0:51:47 Until then, take care of yourself.
    0:51:50 And if you can, someone else too.
    0:51:53 Freakonomics Radio is produced by Stitcher and Renbud Radio.
    0:51:56 This episode was produced by Augusta Chapman.
    0:52:01 The Freakonomics Radio network staff also includes Alina Kulman, Dalvin Abouaji, Eleanor
    0:52:06 Osborne, Ellen Frankman, Elsa Hernandez, Gabriel Roth, Greg Rippon, Jasmine Klinger, Jason
    0:52:11 Gambrell, Jeremy Johnston, John Schnars, Lyric Bowditch, Morgan Levy, Neil Coruth, Sarah
    0:52:14 Lilly, Teo Jacobs, and Zach Lipinski.
    0:52:20 Our theme song is “Mr. Fortune” by the Hitchhikers, and our composer is Luis Guerra.
    0:52:26 As always, thank you for listening.
    0:52:31 It’s very welcoming that many other countries, especially developing countries, they come
    0:52:33 to NAR to say, “How do you work?
    0:52:35 We want to have more orderly system.
    0:52:37 We don’t want the total chaos in the marketplace.
    0:52:39 We don’t want people getting ripped off.
    0:52:41 How does the multiple listing service work?
    0:52:43 What is your ethics rules?”
    0:52:48 So we are happy to share all this with other countries who wants to know how the United
    0:52:50 States system works.
    0:53:03 The Freakonomics Radio Network, the hidden side of everything.
    0:53:06 [MUSIC PLAYING]

    Their trade organization just lost a huge lawsuit. Their infamous commission model is under attack. And there are way too many of them. If they go the way of travel agents, will we miss them when they’re gone?

     

    • SOURCES:
      • Sonia Gilbukh, assistant professor of real estate at CUNY Baruch College.
      • Kevin Sears, 2025 president of the National Association of Realtors.
      • Chad Syverson, professor of economics at the University of Chicago.
      • Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

     

  • 617. Are You Really Allergic to Penicillin?

    AI transcript
    0:00:08 They say that the new year is a good time to express gratitude, so here’s what I am
    0:00:10 most grateful for right now.
    0:00:12 My health.
    0:00:14 For much of last year, I was sick.
    0:00:20 It started in the spring with a cough that turned into a respiratory infection.
    0:00:25 That turned into a whole other thing, and for a few months, I was miserable.
    0:00:28 It hurt to talk or swallow.
    0:00:33 Every time I laughed, it would trigger a coughing fit, which is a problem because I like to
    0:00:34 laugh.
    0:00:36 Thanks to the cough, I couldn’t sleep through the night.
    0:00:41 I also had some ferocious night sweats and crazy dreams.
    0:00:45 During the day, my entire body ached like I’d been hit by a car.
    0:00:48 Also, no appetite, no energy.
    0:00:52 Physically, it was the worst few months of my life.
    0:00:55 But at least I got a story out of it.
    0:00:56 This one.
    0:01:00 Today’s episode is about penicillin.
    0:01:05 You may remember the famous story of how penicillin was discovered, accidentally, nearly a hundred
    0:01:08 years ago by Alexander Fleming.
    0:01:10 This was at St. Mary’s Hospital in London.
    0:01:12 Fleming was just returning from holiday.
    0:01:17 In his lab, he had left behind a Petri dish where he had been culturing bacteria, and
    0:01:20 he found some mold growing in the dish.
    0:01:25 Interestingly, where the mold grew, the bacteria did not.
    0:01:31 It turned out that this mold juice, as Fleming called it, could kill many types of bacteria,
    0:01:34 not just the one growing in that Petri dish.
    0:01:41 Penicillin was eventually used to treat strep throat, meningitis, dental infections, gonorrhea,
    0:01:42 and much more.
    0:01:46 It came to be thought of as something like a miracle drug.
    0:01:53 The penicillins are in fact a family of antibiotics, including amoxicillin, ampicillin, methicillin,
    0:01:54 and several others.
    0:02:00 All these years later, they are still among the safest, cheapest, and most reliable drugs
    0:02:01 around.
    0:02:05 They have saved hundreds of millions of lives.
    0:02:09 Even with all the new antibiotics since then, penicillin is still prescribed at the highest
    0:02:12 rate of any antibiotic.
    0:02:14 But there’s one big problem.
    0:02:19 10% of Americans, more than 30 million people, are allergic to it.
    0:02:25 At least, that’s what the conventional wisdom says, but the new year is also a good time
    0:02:31 to tear down conventional wisdoms, especially if they are disastrously wrong, and this
    0:02:32 one is.
    0:02:38 So, today on Freakonomics Radio, why do so many of us think we have this allergy?
    0:02:41 Huh, this patient told me they were allergic to penicillin.
    0:02:44 Oh, it’s that your mom told you when you were a kid, well, what happened?
    0:02:46 Oh, you don’t even know what happened?
    0:02:49 What should be done about all these false positives?
    0:02:51 We should be screaming from the rooftops.
    0:02:53 This is a misdiagnosis.
    0:02:58 And what about all the other allergy controversy we hear about, like food and environmental
    0:02:59 allergies?
    0:03:01 How bad is the confusion there?
    0:03:02 It’s bad.
    0:03:06 It’s one of the reasons I can’t tell you how many people actually have an allergy.
    0:03:08 What can we tell you?
    0:03:24 A lot, starting now.
    0:03:42 Okay, here is the startling fact that I recently learned.
    0:03:48 While it is true that around 10% of Americans believe they are allergic to penicillin, fewer
    0:03:51 than 1% actually are.
    0:03:53 How can there be such a huge gap?
    0:03:59 And what are the costs of that gap, the medical and economic and social costs?
    0:04:03 Those are some of the questions we will try to answer today, starting with this new friend
    0:04:04 of mine.
    0:04:08 Elena Resnick, I’m an allergist and immunologist.
    0:04:12 And how does one get interested in allergy and immunology?
    0:04:14 I always knew I wanted to be a doctor.
    0:04:17 My dad’s a doctor and there was never any doubt about that.
    0:04:21 I was lucky to have a lot of great mentors along the way.
    0:04:26 My mentor in college, Jerry Grootman, who’s up at Harvard, was very instrumental in my
    0:04:27 choices.
    0:04:31 I worked in his lab for four years, applied to medical school, thought I wanted to be
    0:04:35 a hematologist oncologist like him, explored that field.
    0:04:41 And later into my residency, I explored allergy immunology, which has fascinating medicine
    0:04:45 and amazing potential to make people feel better.
    0:04:47 Give me a little bit of fascinating medicine.
    0:04:52 I find almost every branch of medicine pretty fascinating, in part because there’s so much
    0:04:53 mystery still.
    0:04:56 I mean, as much as we’ve learned, there’s still so much that we don’t know.
    0:04:59 So what was it that really got you hooked there?
    0:05:03 The immune system in particular is fascinating because we know so little about it.
    0:05:05 It’s so important, right?
    0:05:11 We need our immune system to protect us from disease and to fight things off.
    0:05:15 When it goes haywire, we can end up with autoimmune disease, which is where our own
    0:05:20 antibodies attack us, or we can end up with allergic disease, which is when different
    0:05:26 types of antibodies, IgE antibodies, react against substances that are harmless.
    0:05:30 But if we make antibodies against them, we can run into big trouble.
    0:05:32 Define IgE for me?
    0:05:37 IgE is immunoglobulin E. It’s an immunoglobulin that’s made by B cells.
    0:05:43 It probably had more of a function evolutionarily in terms of fighting off parasitic disease,
    0:05:44 et cetera.
    0:05:49 It certainly was not evolutionarily made to react to peanuts and pollens, but we don’t
    0:05:54 know why in some people those types of antibodies are made that are specific against harmless
    0:05:57 substances.
    0:06:07 Peanuts and pollens, milk and eggs, soybeans and shellfish, these are just a few of the
    0:06:11 most prominent allergies that tens of millions of people report today.
    0:06:17 Like Resnick says, harmless substances for most people that cause allergic reactions
    0:06:19 in some.
    0:06:23 Given the magnitude of allergies, especially in the U.S., you might think that there are
    0:06:30 a million Elena Resnicks out there, but she is one of just 5,000 allergists in the U.S.
    0:06:34 If you need an anesthesiologist, they’re more than 40,000.
    0:06:37 If you need a pediatrician, there are 60,000.
    0:06:42 But I needed an allergist, and Elena Resnick was the one that my primary doctor sent me
    0:06:43 to.
    0:06:44 Here’s what happened.
    0:06:47 Like I said earlier, I got sick last year.
    0:06:52 It started with a dry cough that wouldn’t go away, so I went to my primary doctor, who
    0:06:54 I’ve been seeing for years.
    0:06:56 Her name is Rebecca Kurth.
    0:06:58 I love Dr. Kurth.
    0:07:01 She is very smart, a true scientist.
    0:07:06 She’s determined and methodical, but also a friend and an ally.
    0:07:11 She’s taught me to be vigilant about my health without being paranoid, which I think is a
    0:07:13 good middle ground.
    0:07:18 There was one thing she had been wanting me to take care of for a while, but I never did.
    0:07:22 My medical history says that I’m allergic to penicillin.
    0:07:25 The first time I saw her, she asked, “How do you know?”
    0:07:29 And I told her the story that lives in my memory, that I’ve been allergic since I was
    0:07:35 a little kid based on what my mother told me, which was based on what our family doctor
    0:07:36 told her.
    0:07:42 And that’s when Kurth told me that this kind of story is very common, but that the vast
    0:07:47 majority of people who think they are allergic to penicillin are in fact not.
    0:07:54 So at some point, this was still years ago, Dr. Kurth told me I should try to get my penicillin
    0:07:56 allergy cleared.
    0:07:58 This was the first I’d ever heard of being cleared of an allergy.
    0:08:01 It’s also called being delabeled.
    0:08:07 Way back then, she gave me Elena Resnick’s phone number, but I never called.
    0:08:13 It just seemed like a hassle, time-consuming and expensive, and I didn’t see why getting
    0:08:18 cleared for penicillin was a big deal since there are so many modern antibiotics.
    0:08:23 So I did not go see the allergists back then.
    0:08:29 Fast forward to 2024, and here I was, sick with a cough that wouldn’t go away.
    0:08:33 Dr. Kurth gave me what’s called a Z-PAC, or azithromycin.
    0:08:38 That’s a short course of antibiotic that’s used in a variety of cases, especially for
    0:08:41 patients allergic to penicillin.
    0:08:43 The Z-PAC didn’t help.
    0:08:44 I got sicker.
    0:08:46 The cough got worse.
    0:08:50 I went to a radiologist and had a lung scan to look for cancer.
    0:08:51 No cancer.
    0:08:56 I began to wonder what would happen if I could take penicillin.
    0:09:01 Would it fix me, or would it maybe kill me?
    0:09:07 There is a scary-sounding word we all think of when we think about allergies, anaphylaxis.
    0:09:09 Here is Elena Resnick again.
    0:09:15 It’s the most serious type of IgEmediated allergic reaction where the allergy cells explode.
    0:09:20 They release all sorts of mediators, histamines, triptase, et cetera, and that causes your
    0:09:23 vessels to vasodilate.
    0:09:24 Fluid runs in.
    0:09:25 People get hives.
    0:09:26 They’re swelling.
    0:09:29 People’s throat closes up or you have difficulty breathing.
    0:09:31 What’s happening when you die from anaphylaxis?
    0:09:33 Your airway is basically constricted?
    0:09:34 Exactly.
    0:09:40 Your airway is constricted, and because the vessels all over the body are dilating, your
    0:09:41 blood pressure drops.
    0:09:46 You can’t get blood back up to your heart, and you have a cardiac arrest.
    0:09:50 What share of people in the U.S., let’s say, who believe that they are allergic to penicillin
    0:09:53 are in fact allergic to penicillin?
    0:09:59 The studies show that 90% of people who believe that they are allergic to penicillin actually
    0:10:00 can tolerate it.
    0:10:04 That sounds absurd, obviously, that so many people are walking around with this false
    0:10:06 belief about themselves.
    0:10:11 Are there any similar wrongly held beliefs in medicine that you can think of?
    0:10:12 Oh my gosh.
    0:10:14 I don’t know that I can think of any.
    0:10:20 I think that the vast majority of people either have or were told that they had some
    0:10:23 sort of reaction in childhood.
    0:10:25 That is the most common history.
    0:10:29 The story that I told myself my whole life when I was thought to be allergic to penicillin
    0:10:34 was, well, you know, medical research has been so amazing that there are all these other
    0:10:40 drugs and like penicillin or the class of drugs called penicillin, it doesn’t really
    0:10:42 matter if I can’t have access to them.
    0:10:45 How wrong was I in that assessment?
    0:10:47 I think you were 100% wrong, I’m sorry to say.
    0:10:53 The other drugs were so lucky to have them, but many of them have much more severe side
    0:10:55 effect profiles than penicillin does.
    0:10:58 They can have more serious complications.
    0:11:04 They’re much more expensive and in certain cases, for example, vancomycin, they can actually
    0:11:16 increase the risk of drug-resistant bacteria.
    0:11:18 So you can see the problem here.
    0:11:22 A lot of people who would benefit from penicillin think they are allergic to it and that they
    0:11:24 might die if they take it.
    0:11:29 The vast majority of them are not allergic, but many of them don’t even think to get
    0:11:32 cleared and doing so takes some effort.
    0:11:35 It starts with what’s called a prick test.
    0:11:37 Elena Resnick again.
    0:11:38 How do we do that?
    0:11:43 So every good experiment has a control and the controls that we use are saline, which
    0:11:44 is saltwater.
    0:11:45 Nobody is allergic to that.
    0:11:48 And histamine, which is the body’s allergic chemical.
    0:11:52 So we prick you and when I say prick, I mean we clean off the forearm and then we use tiny
    0:12:00 needles to introduce just under the surface of the skin, saline, histamine, and our penicillin
    0:12:01 reagents.
    0:12:03 So it’s four small pricks under the surface of the skin.
    0:12:06 So you’re not giving me enough to hurt me if I am allergic?
    0:12:07 Exactly.
    0:12:09 But if I am allergic, then what happens?
    0:12:13 If you are allergic, we would expect that where we pricked you with the saline, nothing
    0:12:14 would happen.
    0:12:16 Where we pricked you with the histamine, you’ll get a red itchy bump.
    0:12:21 And where we prick you with the penicillin, you will also get a red itchy bump.
    0:12:22 That’s considered a positive test.
    0:12:25 We say you’ve tested positive for penicillin allergy.
    0:12:26 That’s it.
    0:12:27 Go home.
    0:12:28 Continue to avoid penicillins.
    0:12:33 If it’s negative, we go on and do the intradermal test, which hurts a little bit more.
    0:12:38 We’re using the same reagents and we’re putting them just under the surface of the skin.
    0:12:43 And again, we look to see do those bumps get any bigger during the waiting period and we’re
    0:12:46 comparing them again against saline.
    0:12:48 If that test is positive, again, you go home.
    0:12:49 That’s it.
    0:12:50 You’re allergic.
    0:12:54 But if that test is negative, we now have a skin prick and intradermal tests that are
    0:13:01 both negative and the studies show that in those cases, it’s 95% likely that you’ll then
    0:13:03 pass a penicillin challenge.
    0:13:07 I think in real life, it’s probably much, much higher than that.
    0:13:10 But we go ahead and we do an oral challenge, which is just what it sounds.
    0:13:13 We give you a dose of a penicillin.
    0:13:16 We use a moxicillin, which is a common oral penicillin.
    0:13:17 We give you that dose.
    0:13:21 We have you wait in the office for about two hours just to make sure that you’re fine.
    0:13:23 And that’s the gold standard, right?
    0:13:24 Tests are tests.
    0:13:32 But if you take the medication and you’re fine, then we know you’re not allergic.
    0:13:37 This clearing process that Dr. Resnick just described, that’s what I did in her office
    0:13:38 a few months ago.
    0:13:40 I did the skin prick test.
    0:13:43 I did the intradermal test, both negative.
    0:13:49 And then at a later visit, I took a dose of penicillin and I waited in her office for
    0:13:53 a couple hours to see if I had an allergic response.
    0:13:55 I did not.
    0:13:59 I could now definitively say that I am not allergic to penicillin.
    0:14:05 Probably never was, although it is true that some people grow out of allergies over time,
    0:14:07 just as some people grow into them.
    0:14:12 But whatever childhood rash or temperature spike had led our family doctor to declare
    0:14:17 me allergic to the penicillin he gave me was likely due to something else, perhaps a viral
    0:14:20 infection rather than a bacterial one.
    0:14:27 So now I could take penicillin if I needed it and it appeared I might because my illness
    0:14:29 had deepened.
    0:14:34 I went back to Dr. Kirth’s office for another round of tests and we turned up some interesting
    0:14:36 evidence this time.
    0:14:40 By now I had something called non-group A strep throat, which seemed to be responsible for
    0:14:47 some of my symptoms, but I also had thyroiditis, an inflamed thyroid gland.
    0:14:50 This was the first time in my life I’d ever thought about my thyroid gland.
    0:14:51 I didn’t even know where it is.
    0:14:56 It turns out it’s in the front of the neck and it’s shaped like a butterfly.
    0:15:00 It is also a quiet superstar of the immune system.
    0:15:05 The thyroid produces hormones that help regulate everything from brain and muscle function
    0:15:08 to body temperature and heart rate.
    0:15:13 It can also pitch in when your immune system is already under attack and that’s probably
    0:15:14 what happened to me.
    0:15:21 The strep got so bad that the thyroid marched in like some auxiliary army, but without any
    0:15:26 specific orders it just started shooting out hormones.
    0:15:33 So I was a mess, but I was no longer allergic to penicillin.
    0:15:39 So I swallowed as much amoxicillin as Dr. Kirth would allow and even though it took a while,
    0:15:40 the healing began.
    0:15:43 My cough gradually died down.
    0:15:46 My voice started to come back and then my energy too.
    0:15:48 I started sleeping through the night.
    0:15:50 That was probably the biggest thing.
    0:15:54 For the first time in months I felt human.
    0:15:58 Did all that suffering have been prevented if I had taken penicillin back when the trouble
    0:16:00 started?
    0:16:04 It’s hard to say for sure, but it’s quite possible.
    0:16:11 Here is another physician who specializes in allergy.
    0:16:16 Nothing kills bacteria better than these drugs.
    0:16:18 This is Kimberly Blumenthal.
    0:16:24 I’m an allergist and immunologist and clinical population level researcher at Mass General
    0:16:26 Hospital and Harvard Medical School.
    0:16:32 Blumenthal has written dozens of papers about penicillins, not just about the allergy confusion,
    0:16:33 but about their effectiveness.
    0:16:40 If your infection is sensitive to these drugs, they are the best drugs out there.
    0:16:47 From an adverse effect profile, they’re also much more benign than other antibiotics.
    0:16:49 Unless you happen to be allergic.
    0:16:52 Unless you happen to be allergic.
    0:16:55 Penicillin allergy was described immediately after penicillin was released and it’s the
    0:16:57 same with all drugs.
    0:17:02 You release new drugs and we find patients that are allergic, but antibiotic allergies
    0:17:04 misdiagnosed most of the time.
    0:17:05 Why is that?
    0:17:08 When we have infections, we get rashes.
    0:17:09 It’s really as simple as that.
    0:17:12 Yeah, especially in children.
    0:17:14 Children get rashes when they have infections.
    0:17:16 Those infections are treated with antibiotics.
    0:17:19 There’s misattribution of allergy.
    0:17:24 So often it might even not have been a bacterial infection, it might have been a viral infection?
    0:17:25 Absolutely.
    0:17:30 For years and years, we have had this idea that an infection requires antibiotics and
    0:17:35 only past five, 10 years, we’ve tried to pull back on that because of antibiotic resistance.
    0:17:40 The moral of the story is, if your kid is really sick, just let them stew.
    0:17:43 Is that the moral of the story or not quite?
    0:17:45 Don’t act too fast.
    0:17:51 I think it’s good to be a really busy parent and not be on top of it and rushing them in
    0:17:52 right away.
    0:17:56 But to be fair, when the parent rushes them in, then it’s the physician’s opportunity
    0:17:58 to slow things down.
    0:18:01 Yeah, and some people do it better than others.
    0:18:06 There are these fantastic discharge prescriptions that aren’t actual prescriptions, things
    0:18:13 like rest and drink plenty of water and Nana’s chicken soup, take Tylenol or Motrin for fever,
    0:18:20 and then if things a week later are still in the same place or things worsen, then call
    0:18:28 me back and then we treat with antibiotics.
    0:18:33 When Bluenthal was in medical school, she became fascinated by the idea that two patients
    0:18:38 with the same infection could have entirely different outcomes, depending on how they
    0:18:39 were treated.
    0:18:48 I really was drawn to the idea of how important the choice of what drug was the key decision,
    0:18:50 what drug is right for this patient.
    0:18:57 I pretty immediately realized that regardless of what nonspecific garbage was listed on
    0:19:01 the allergy list, it really changed care.
    0:19:06 And I just got totally distracted as to like, does it need to change care?
    0:19:09 Why is there a two-tier system?
    0:19:13 If you have an allergy, you treat with this, but everyone else who doesn’t have an allergy
    0:19:15 gets this.
    0:19:20 I realized that what we were calling allergy was mostly side effects.
    0:19:28 So if we’re drawing a kind of SAT style analogy and penicillin is to these bacterial infections
    0:19:34 as a hammer is to a nail, let’s say, it’s the right tool for the right moment, what
    0:19:41 would the typical non penicillin antibiotic, what would that be if one suspects that a
    0:19:44 patient is allergic to penicillin?
    0:19:52 Something way too big to hammer in the nail, some sort of mallet is like, I don’t do tools
    0:19:53 and hardware.
    0:19:57 Would it be like a leg of lamb, perhaps?
    0:20:03 Sure, maybe could get the job done, but by kind of making a mess.
    0:20:10 So talk about your own practice as a clinician and tell me roughly if you can, how many people
    0:20:16 have you tested over your career who thought they were allergic to penicillin and what
    0:20:18 share of them actually were?
    0:20:25 If I were to see something like five patients for this a week, myself, and I’ve been doing
    0:20:34 it for over a decade, we’re near 3,000 patients, I’ve seen probably 20 allergic.
    0:20:40 And when you say you’ve seen 3,000, those are 3,000 who are suspected of being penicillin
    0:20:41 allergic?
    0:20:47 Yeah, they present to my clinic at the suggestion of their primary or their surgeon or themselves.
    0:20:52 Yeah, I would say it’s probably been 3,000 patients that I’ve seen myself.
    0:20:57 I know and remember two severe reactions.
    0:20:58 That’s it.
    0:21:00 The rest have been rashes.
    0:21:02 It’s even worse than most of the published numbers I’ve seen.
    0:21:06 Most of the published numbers say that roughly 10% of the US population is thought to be
    0:21:14 penicillin allergic, but of that 10%, roughly 90% are not.
    0:21:18 According to you, it sounds like it’s more like 99% that are not.
    0:21:20 99% in my practice.
    0:21:26 Can you think about another area of medicine where that rate of false positives exists?
    0:21:30 No, and this is why we should be screaming from the rooftops is misdiagnosis.
    0:21:33 This is a missed diagnosis.
    0:21:38 Everyone has something on their chart that’s wrong and nobody is screaming about taking
    0:21:39 it off.
    0:21:42 We reconcile medicines every visit.
    0:21:44 I’m taking this, I’m not taking this.
    0:21:48 We try to take care to make sure what is in the chart is correct.
    0:21:56 This is something that is not ever addressed and is incorrect in the majority of people.
    0:22:01 Coming up after the break, we take a look at misdiagnosis around food allergies.
    0:22:07 He used to fight with people to get them to recognize that their issue is food allergy
    0:22:11 and now he fights with people to get them to recognize that their issue is not food
    0:22:12 allergy.
    0:22:13 I’m Stephen Dubner.
    0:22:14 This is Freakonomics Radio.
    0:22:15 We’ll be right back.
    0:22:28 You could imagine that artificial intelligence will soon be helpful in sorting out things
    0:22:33 like who’s allergic to what, but we’re not there yet.
    0:22:38 For now, allergy is often a guessing game, a bit of grasping in the dark.
    0:22:43 It’s estimated that roughly 40% of humans have some kind of allergy that’s expected
    0:22:47 to rise to 50% by the next decade.
    0:22:48 Why?
    0:22:52 We’ve already heard from a couple of allergists, but to answer this question, we need someone
    0:22:54 with a broader view.
    0:22:57 We need a medical anthropologist.
    0:23:03 Medical anthropology is looking at all the social and cultural factors involved in healthcare
    0:23:04 systems.
    0:23:12 We think about how all those beliefs and politics and economics, how all of that factors into
    0:23:16 the choices people make about their health and how they view their health.
    0:23:18 This is Charisa McPhail.
    0:23:24 I’m Associate Professor of Science and Technology Studies at Stevens Institute of Technology.
    0:23:30 McPhail recently published a book called Allergic, Our Irritated Bodies in a Changing World.
    0:23:35 She writes that roughly half a billion people suffer from food allergies alone.
    0:23:41 That’s been a puzzle as to why an immune cell will take a look at something that is otherwise
    0:23:48 harmless and decide that it’s not and do it after sometimes years of tolerating it just
    0:23:51 fine and suddenly now it’s a problem.
    0:23:58 Just tell me why and how you became interested in the notion, the big notion of allergy.
    0:24:00 My father died of a bee sting.
    0:24:04 He died from an anaphylactic reaction to bee venom.
    0:24:08 He had had a reaction in the past, but it was fairly mild just swelling at the site.
    0:24:14 It’s mostly what happens to anyone who gets stung by a venomous insect.
    0:24:16 He died on the second sting.
    0:24:20 We really don’t know how many times he was stung because he was a Vietnam vet, so there’s
    0:24:24 a chance that he was stung prior to that.
    0:24:30 I got curious about my own susceptibility to such things.
    0:24:37 Years later, I was diagnosed with allergies, but I am one of the rare people that do not
    0:24:40 react to skin or blood tests.
    0:24:46 I have low levels of IgE, the antibody that is driving the allergic response.
    0:24:51 So there’s no way to tell what I’m allergic to except that clinically you can see the
    0:24:54 signs and symptoms that I am allergic to something.
    0:24:55 So what are you allergic to?
    0:25:03 I think based on my years of detective work that I’m allergic to grass and probably ragweed
    0:25:05 and maybe dust mites.
    0:25:08 Can you just say what an allergy is and what an allergy is not?
    0:25:12 Oh boy, how much time do we have?
    0:25:14 This is part of the problem.
    0:25:18 There’s a lot of confusion about what an allergy is and isn’t.
    0:25:26 The easiest answer I can give you is that an allergy is when your body responds to something
    0:25:32 that is otherwise harmless and triggers an immune response.
    0:25:39 If your immune cells are not involved in the response, then it is not an allergy.
    0:25:44 The classic example is milk allergy versus milk intolerance.
    0:25:49 On the surface, if you have a mild milk allergy, it’s going to look the same, perhaps, an
    0:25:55 upset stomach, feeling kind of gross, some gassiness.
    0:25:59 But the difference is with the intolerance, there’s something else going on.
    0:26:05 In this case, you’re not able to digest lactose because you lack an enzyme.
    0:26:11 But it’s producing symptoms that would seem familiar to someone whose immune cells, whose
    0:26:20 T cells and B cells are producing antibodies and attacking that milk protein, except that
    0:26:26 the allergy can escalate, you can get a skin rash, you can get wheezing, and you can end
    0:26:28 up in the ER with a full-on anaphylactic event.
    0:26:34 It’s not going to happen with intolerance, but if you have mild forms of this, you’re
    0:26:39 going to be confused and you might just assume that you have an allergy, and the only way
    0:26:41 to know for certain is to see an allergist.
    0:26:46 The problem there is we don’t really have enough of them, they’re specialists, and you
    0:26:51 need a referral to see one, and so a lot of people are out there self-diagnosing.
    0:26:56 Are allergic rates rising, or is there just more awareness and/or diagnosis and/or treatment?
    0:27:02 We think as far as we can tell that they are rising, but it’s complicated.
    0:27:09 We know that rates of asthma and hay fever started to rise post-World War II, like 1950s-1960s,
    0:27:14 and continued right up until the 1990s, and now they seem to have been flattened.
    0:27:20 But what has been rising in the wake of that are rates of food allergies.
    0:27:23 We know this because of several reasons.
    0:27:26 One is you can look at ER visits.
    0:27:33 You can see when someone is showing up with asthma or with a rash, like a very bad eczema
    0:27:38 eruption, or they are having anaphylaxis.
    0:27:43 The other thing that we can track is EpiPen or adrenaline prescriptions.
    0:27:54 Those raised three to four times from the 1990s to around 2018-2019.
    0:27:59 As with penicillin, the discovery and isolation of adrenaline is another great story for medical
    0:28:00 history.
    0:28:04 I won’t go into the details here, but it’s worth reading about if you’re so inclined.
    0:28:09 A dose of adrenaline, or epinephrine, administered in an EpiPen, for instance, is the first
    0:28:12 line treatment for anaphylaxis.
    0:28:18 When Theresa McPhail cites the huge spike in EpiPen prescriptions as evidence of a huge
    0:28:25 spike in allergies, she also points out that much of the demand was driven by the supplier.
    0:28:31 Mylan Pharmaceuticals marketed the EpiPen aggressively across many channels.
    0:28:39 Over one 10-year period, McPhail writes, they hired more lobbyists than any other U.S. company.
    0:28:45 This led to a relabeling of the drug by the FDA, which made more people eligible to take
    0:28:46 it.
    0:28:52 McPhail also lobbied state legislators as a means to get more EpiPens into schools.
    0:28:58 They also partnered with Disney to produce children’s books about allergy sufferers.
    0:29:02 So how big is the allergy market?
    0:29:08 The global market for epinephrine is about $2 billion a year, with 60% of that sold in
    0:29:09 the U.S.
    0:29:13 If you look at hay fever, one recent study put the cost of treating Americans at over
    0:29:19 $4 billion a year, more than a billion of which goes to medication.
    0:29:24 If you look at the entire category of allergy remediation, the global sales of tests and
    0:29:28 treatments is around $40 billion a year.
    0:29:36 So how much of the allergy boom has been driven by more allergies versus well-run pharmaceutical
    0:29:37 campaigns?
    0:29:38 It’s hard to say.
    0:29:42 There are a variety of factors that may be driving allergy increase.
    0:29:48 Some research shows that environmental and chemical disruption may play a big role.
    0:29:55 I asked Theresa McPhail about some other potential drivers.
    0:30:01 Many, many, many people have by now heard or read about the notion of allergy rising
    0:30:08 because we, especially we of the children variety, are not exposed to enough things,
    0:30:12 pathogens or allergens or whatnot that we don’t roll around in the dirt and so on.
    0:30:13 Right.
    0:30:19 So in the 1980s, this is after the massive rise of asthma, we’re starting to see food
    0:30:28 allergies and epidemiologists was curious about this and started collecting data on families
    0:30:37 and realized that older siblings seem to have more allergic disease than younger siblings.
    0:30:46 The theory was that older siblings bring home colds and track in bugs to expose their younger
    0:30:52 siblings and there was something about that earlier exposure that had somehow protected
    0:30:54 these younger siblings.
    0:31:00 It was called the hygiene hypothesis that is morphed over the years to what is now called
    0:31:03 the old friends hypothesis, which is nice, isn’t it?
    0:31:10 That’s a nicer way to put it, that there’s something about getting the right exposures
    0:31:17 to the right bacteria or the right viruses and fungi that will help train our immune
    0:31:18 system.
    0:31:24 You’re born with a novice, a naive immune system that hasn’t seen anything and you’re
    0:31:29 born with an innate immune system, which means there are things online from the very
    0:31:36 beginning that just act as a brute force response to anything that threatens the individual.
    0:31:41 And then you have an adaptive immune system, which involve your T cells and your B cells
    0:31:45 and your antibodies that remember the things that you’ve been exposed to.
    0:31:50 And so the theory is those have to be trained and they have to be trained in the right order
    0:31:59 and they have to be exposed to the same types of bugs, microbes, but they would have been
    0:32:01 evolving with for millennia.
    0:32:06 The theory is that we’ve changed so much that some of those are missing.
    0:32:12 It has confused our immune system to the extent that you’re seeing more allergic disease
    0:32:15 because you’re not getting the training.
    0:32:21 It feels as though every time I go to a restaurant these days, the server will ask, “Is anyone
    0:32:22 allergic to anything?
    0:32:24 Do you know anything about that?”
    0:32:27 It’s basically advocacy.
    0:32:32 And at the forefront of that is a group called FAIR, which is food, allergy, research, and
    0:32:33 education.
    0:32:38 They’re privately funded and run by a group of parents.
    0:32:42 When I started researching the book, one of the first people I sat down with was Helen
    0:32:43 Jaffe.
    0:32:50 Her and her husband, David, are some of the founding members of FAIR and they also have
    0:32:57 helped to fund the Jaffe Center at Mount Sinai for food allergy research.
    0:33:03 When they started the foundation, it was because two of their children had quite severe food
    0:33:07 allergies, but it was at a time where no one was doing this.
    0:33:13 They live here in New York City and they had to take the train down to Johns Hopkins to
    0:33:20 see Dr. Hugh Sampson, he’s a renowned food allergist and researcher, and he has been
    0:33:21 doing this for over 40 years.
    0:33:28 But at the time, there were maybe half a dozen people focused on food allergy.
    0:33:34 And so initially, Helen told me that their focus was really on education and research
    0:33:40 funding to try to figure out what was going on, why the rates seemed to be rising, figure
    0:33:45 out more about the biological mechanisms that drove this response.
    0:33:51 I spoke with Dr. Hugh Sampson now, we’re talking about years later, and he said he used to
    0:33:56 fight with people to get them to recognize that their issue was food allergy, and now
    0:34:01 he fights with people to get them to recognize that their issue is not food allergy.
    0:34:02 Can you explain?
    0:34:11 You see on the FAIR website that 50 to 60% of all blood tests and skin prick tests for
    0:34:16 food allergy testing will yield a false positive result.
    0:34:17 Correct.
    0:34:19 So that sounds absurdly bad.
    0:34:21 Is it not as bad as it sounds, or is it that bad?
    0:34:24 No, it’s bad.
    0:34:25 It’s bad.
    0:34:29 I mean, diagnostics are one of the sticking points.
    0:34:34 It’s one of the reasons I can’t tell you how many people actually have an allergy, because
    0:34:40 we’re stuck with primarily the skin tests, which were invented in the late 1800s by a
    0:34:43 UK physician, Dr. Charles Blackley.
    0:34:45 Wait, the late 1800s?
    0:34:46 Yes.
    0:34:52 And if I exhumed him and revived him, he would have no problem giving a skin test today.
    0:34:53 What about false negative?
    0:34:55 That’s what we should be really concerned about.
    0:34:58 That is the better situation.
    0:35:06 It’s around 95% certain if you do not respond that you are not going to respond in real
    0:35:07 life.
    0:35:08 So that’s good news, at least.
    0:35:09 Yes.
    0:35:10 That’s good news.
    0:35:13 That’s why we still use them, because it’s almost like a differential diagnosis.
    0:35:15 We can rule some things out.
    0:35:20 So you mentioned in the book that your aunt and your grandmother were allergic to penicillin.
    0:35:21 Yes.
    0:35:27 Given everything we’ve discussed about testing or the lack of great testing and the murkiness
    0:35:33 surrounding this area, do you think that they actually were allergic to penicillin or maybe?
    0:35:38 In my grandmother’s case, we know because she was in the hospital and had an actual
    0:35:41 skin eruption and reaction to penicillin.
    0:35:45 I honestly don’t know about my aunt.
    0:35:50 Sorry if she’s listening to this, because to my knowledge, she’s never been tested.
    0:35:51 So I don’t know.
    0:36:00 It does avoid them, though at the end of the day, I suppose it doesn’t matter.
    0:36:04 I suppose it doesn’t matter, Theresa McPhail says.
    0:36:09 That’s what I used to think, that a penicillin allergy is no big deal, since there are other
    0:36:12 newer antibiotics that do the same thing.
    0:36:17 But the allergists we heard from earlier, Elena Resnick and Kimberly Blumenthal, they
    0:36:20 told me that that is simply not accurate.
    0:36:25 Resnick told me about a pregnant patient of hers who showed up with a penicillin allergy
    0:36:27 on her chart.
    0:36:32 Penicillins are an amazing drug also because we know them to be safe and effective in pregnancy.
    0:36:38 When a pregnant woman goes in to deliver, if she is colonized with group B strep, which
    0:36:44 is a very common vaginal infection, she must be given antibiotics before delivery to ensure
    0:36:47 that the baby is not exposed to the group B strep.
    0:36:51 So the antibiotic of choice for group B strep is in the penicillin family.
    0:36:56 Mom comes in, she’s ready to deliver, she gets a dose of penicillin, she gets her second
    0:37:00 dose four hours later, she delivers the baby, everything is fine.
    0:37:04 If she is thought to be penicillin allergic, instead she’s given vancomycin.
    0:37:07 Vancomycin dosing interval is every 12 hours.
    0:37:14 So if she’s not dosed appropriately, the baby can be considered inadequately treated
    0:37:18 and that leads to all sorts of other potential decisions, maybe getting put on antibiotics,
    0:37:25 maybe going to the NICU, again, the complications just from this penicillin label are intense.
    0:37:30 So in this particular scenario, this mom went in to deliver, she was thought to be penicillin
    0:37:36 allergic, they gave her vancomycin, she developed red man syndrome from the vancomycin, which
    0:37:40 is just what it sounds like, where the body becomes completely red and flushed and other
    0:37:42 medications have to be given.
    0:37:47 And then she had a wound infection from her C-section because she was still thought to
    0:37:54 be penicillin allergic, they gave her clindamycin to treat the wound infection and she developed
    0:37:58 C-diff from the clindamycin.
    0:38:00 And how did that play out?
    0:38:05 So when you develop C-diff, then you have to be put on oral vancomycin and then treated
    0:38:07 usually for two weeks, it’s just a nightmare.
    0:38:11 Perhaps one thing after another, and then she came to see me and we were able to clear
    0:38:13 her of that penicillin allergy.
    0:38:15 Why did she come to you in the first place?
    0:38:20 So her OBGYN, we also rely on the OBGYNs to find people who in their charts have this
    0:38:21 penicillin allergy.
    0:38:26 The problem with that is we’re not going to test a pregnant woman just on the off chance
    0:38:29 that she does end up being one of these rare people who’s truly allergic, obviously we
    0:38:32 don’t want to put a pregnant woman into anaphylaxis.
    0:38:37 So we’re sort of stuck with that label, which is hard for the OB because then their patient
    0:38:39 gets a simple infection, they can’t use a penicillin.
    0:38:44 So a lot of the OBs will say to their patients, before you get pregnant again, better go get
    0:38:51 cleared of your penicillin allergy.
    0:38:56 The fact is that a mislabeled penicillin allergy, and as we’ve established the vast majority
    0:38:59 of penicillin allergies are mislabeled.
    0:39:00 This is a serious thing.
    0:39:04 The risk of post-surgical infection is much higher.
    0:39:07 So are your chances of dying.
    0:39:11 Kimberly Blumenthal from Mass General Harvard published a study comparing the long-term
    0:39:17 outcomes of 60,000 patients with a penicillin allergy in their medical record versus more
    0:39:20 than 200,000 patients without.
    0:39:26 We did an all-cause mortality study in a very nicely controlled observational study, 14%
    0:39:27 increased all-cause mortality.
    0:39:34 Wait a minute, if being labeled penicillin allergic is producing that many more deaths,
    0:39:40 what exactly are the adverse outcomes that you’re avoiding if you’re able to take penicillin?
    0:39:49 There’s avoiding antibiotic resistance, cedif colitis, avoiding too long of hospital stays,
    0:39:55 avoiding surgical infections if you had needed an operation, and then there’s avoiding other
    0:40:01 adverse events that result from a choice of antibiotic that’s just more toxic and by its
    0:40:06 nature caused more renal failure or caused more diarrhea or whatnot.
    0:40:11 This may be impossible to say, but let’s say there are two observationally equivalent
    0:40:12 patients.
    0:40:15 Let’s say me, and let’s say I have a twin, okay?
    0:40:20 And one of us has been labeled penicillin allergic, the other hasn’t.
    0:40:23 We have the same medical problem come up.
    0:40:24 I’ll let you pick the problem.
    0:40:29 One of us receives a penicillin drug, the other is not eligible to do so.
    0:40:32 Even if his allergy isn’t real, we think it’s real.
    0:40:39 How would you think about comparing the medical and economic outcomes of person A and person
    0:40:40 B?
    0:40:42 It’s such a no-brainer.
    0:40:47 When you give me this description, what comes to mind is two people who have strep throat.
    0:40:48 Strep throat and a penicillin allergy label.
    0:40:53 One person gets penicillin, that’s indicated for penicillin, strep throat goes away, no
    0:40:55 long-term sequelae, they’re fine.
    0:41:01 It was cheap, and then the other person gets a ZPAC, a Zithromycin, and it doesn’t fully
    0:41:02 go away.
    0:41:05 Then they call back and they get another antibiotic.
    0:41:11 Maybe this time they get a bigger antibiotic, and that causes some problem.
    0:41:13 They might get a tonsillar abscess.
    0:41:19 They get a quinolone, suprafloxacin unnecessarily, or some other medication.
    0:41:23 I mean, I don’t know what any of those are, but all those syllables sound bad to me.
    0:41:24 Yeah.
    0:41:27 There’s no rule like the more syllables the antibiotic has, it’s worse.
    0:41:30 I wish it were that simple.
    0:41:40 Okay, that’s not simple, but this is, misdiagnosed penicillin allergies are costing all of us
    0:41:42 a lot of suffering and dollars.
    0:41:46 So why isn’t more being done to solve this problem?
    0:41:50 Because the public doesn’t decide which grants get funded.
    0:41:52 That’s coming up after the break.
    0:42:06 This is Freakin’omics Radio, and I’m Stephen Dubner.
    0:42:11 Once you know about the benefits of penicillin and how millions of people wrongly believe
    0:42:16 they are allergic, you can’t help but think about the costs of this misdiagnosis.
    0:42:22 Not just the bad health outcomes and the complications, but the financial costs, too.
    0:42:27 That’s why some specialists are pushing for more testing and delabeling of people who
    0:42:29 think they are allergic.
    0:42:35 That might cost a lot up front, but when one in 10 people think they have a medical handicap
    0:42:40 and they don’t, this actually presents an opportunity to save money.
    0:42:44 It might even be worth testing every single person whose medical history says they are
    0:42:46 allergic.
    0:42:49 Here again is Kimberly Blumenthal from Mass General Harvard.
    0:42:56 We can evaluate for penicillin allergy with simple tests, and these simple tests need
    0:43:04 to be delivered to that 10% of America and reimbursed appropriately and taught to a
    0:43:06 non-specialist workforce.
    0:43:10 Could be a welcome to college visit, a welcome to Medicare visit.
    0:43:13 How much money could you save by doing this?
    0:43:15 Just my healthcare system would be millions.
    0:43:22 If we evaluated penicillin allergy, delabeled the appropriate ones, we would save millions
    0:43:24 of dollars just my healthcare system.
    0:43:26 So it must be in the billions.
    0:43:28 You’d save it how?
    0:43:31 You save on antibiotic expenditure.
    0:43:34 Just because penicillins are cheaper than the other antibiotics?
    0:43:35 Yes.
    0:43:38 You’d save on adverse effect avoidance.
    0:43:42 Meaning penicillins don’t cause as many adverse effects as other antibiotics?
    0:43:47 Yes, and some of these adverse effects lead you to the emergency room and another hospitalization.
    0:43:55 You would save on surgical infections, a tremendously costly thing.
    0:44:01 Blumenthal is trying to make these cost savings a reality in the Mass General Hospital system.
    0:44:07 In our hospitals, without an allergist involved, there is sort of algorithmic care that can
    0:44:12 clear allergy in low risk situations with just a protocol, just a little bit more observation.
    0:44:15 You’re ready in the hospital, you’re being observed.
    0:44:17 Your vital signs are already on record there.
    0:44:18 Yeah.
    0:44:24 And is the idea as simple as you feed the key vital signs into the allergy algorithm and
    0:44:29 see if indeed there’s a likelihood that that person is not allergic and then maybe do some
    0:44:30 challenge testing?
    0:44:31 Is that the way it works?
    0:44:35 We do it when patients have infections, so we don’t do it electively like if you’re there
    0:44:40 for something not related, but if you have an infection that an allergy is getting in
    0:44:48 the way of best care, we have a two-step drug challenge process, and as long as the patient’s
    0:44:50 healthy enough to do that, we do it.
    0:44:53 So we give a small amount, watch the patient, give a full amount, watch the patient, and
    0:44:57 then if that’s the drug that they need to be treated with, they just continue that drug
    0:44:59 right then and there.
    0:45:06 Since there is a treatment for the allergic response, but the default is to not give penicillin
    0:45:11 if there’s a suspicion of allergy, what would happen if you just flipped the default and
    0:45:15 said, “No, no, no, we’re just going to give penicillin,” and if they happen to be in the
    0:45:19 small group of people who are allergic, then we’ll watch and we’ll treat it.
    0:45:23 Is that such a terrible idea or would you kill a bunch of people by accident that way?
    0:45:28 You would kill some people by accident, and in America, it’s just a non-starter.
    0:45:30 Because we don’t want to kill anybody, you’re saying?
    0:45:36 Well, there’s also this doctor first do no harm, like the oath we take, and it feels
    0:45:43 wrong to just disregard allergy labels entirely.
    0:45:49 The hospitals where Blumenthal works have achieved a 9% de-labeling rate over a decade.
    0:45:52 The national de-labeling rate is less than 1%.
    0:45:56 There’s something interesting to notice about Blumenthal’s approach.
    0:46:03 Many specialists in many industries are always trying to grow their leverage to become ever
    0:46:05 more powerful gatekeepers.
    0:46:08 Blumenthal is moving in the opposite direction.
    0:46:14 She wants to shift leverage away from the allergists in order to help more patients.
    0:46:18 This would happen through better technology, better training, and better regulation.
    0:46:25 In some states, pharmacists are now allowed to perform the skin tests for penicillin allergy.
    0:46:30 Last year, a Republican congressman with Democratic support introduced the PAVE Act that stands
    0:46:34 for Penicillin Allergy Verification and Evaluation.
    0:46:39 It would fold allergy awareness into annual wellness visits and the preventive Welcome
    0:46:43 to Medicare visits that Blumenthal mentioned earlier.
    0:46:47 So that all sounds good, but let’s not get too excited.
    0:46:53 Overall, the false positive problem in penicillin is under-examined and underfunded.
    0:46:58 I can tell you with confidence that I was the first penicillin allergy grant that the
    0:47:01 NIH funded in 30 years.
    0:47:02 Whose area is it?
    0:47:03 Is it infectious disease?
    0:47:04 Is it allergy?
    0:47:05 It’s multidisciplinary.
    0:47:06 Is it surgery?
    0:47:07 Is it obstetrics?
    0:47:09 Because penicillins are used by everybody.
    0:47:10 Dentists.
    0:47:15 It was very hard to know who takes ownership of something that crosses every single discipline.
    0:47:19 When disciplines cross, disciplines compete.
    0:47:24 In the cost of medical research, these can be multi-billion-dollar competitions.
    0:47:27 There’s a pecking order in medicine.
    0:47:29 This is Thomas Platsmills.
    0:47:34 I’m a professor of medicine at the University of Virginia and I’ve been studying allergic
    0:47:37 disease for a long time.
    0:47:42 And where does allergic disease fall in the pecking order of medical research?
    0:47:44 It’s actually much worse than anything you imagine.
    0:47:49 Surgeons are at the top, cardiac surgeons and all these people fight with each other.
    0:47:56 But they know that at the bottom there are dermatologists and psychiatrists and allergists.
    0:48:00 I got very little from the university a little bit in the first few years.
    0:48:05 But then basically in the last years, nothing, we’ve always had to get our own money.
    0:48:10 And I was getting NIH money and the NIH has been very generous.
    0:48:15 This last time, I actually got a one on a grant.
    0:48:18 It’s actually means you’re in the top 1%.
    0:48:22 And then I got a merit award and the merit award is absolutely wonderful because from
    0:48:32 18 to 28, I’m funded by the NIH 10 years instead of 5, tick bite research is hot.
    0:48:36 Platsmills is a giant in the field of allergy research.
    0:48:41 Some of his early work was on the connection between asthma and dust mites.
    0:48:45 More recently, he and his team have found that getting bitten by the lone star tick
    0:48:50 can trigger an allergy to a sugar molecule called alpha-gal, which is found in the blood
    0:48:55 of mammals, which means the tick bite can therefore render a person allergic to red
    0:48:57 meat.
    0:49:01 As Platsmills said, tick bite research is hot.
    0:49:07 That Congress voted $100 million for it so that we can get tick bite related grants for
    0:49:10 different aspects of our research.
    0:49:12 And that’s been tremendously helpful.
    0:49:17 Why do you think ticks are such a good selling point for voters, Congress, et cetera, just
    0:49:19 because it’s relatable?
    0:49:21 Oh, come on.
    0:49:26 God had finished making the earth and then the devil reached over and sprinkled ticks
    0:49:28 all over it.
    0:49:29 You know that.
    0:49:32 No, ticks are very interesting.
    0:49:36 The deer are absolutely infested with ticks.
    0:49:42 It is not unusual for hunters to shoot one of our deer and find the thing with so many
    0:49:44 ticks, they couldn’t possibly count them.
    0:49:51 When you were embarking on the research about the alpha-gal red meat allergy related to ticks,
    0:49:56 did your colleagues think or maybe even say that you were bonkers?
    0:49:59 They always say I’m bonkers.
    0:50:03 No, no, I’ve gone away with murder several times.
    0:50:11 My father taught us that if we think A and the rest of the world thinks B, that is formal
    0:50:14 proof that A is correct.
    0:50:20 Being educated in an environment like that is really extraordinary.
    0:50:24 It does strike me and I’d love you to tell me if I’m wrong, but my sense is that when
    0:50:29 it comes to allergy, the pharmaceutical side of the equation is doing very well.
    0:50:35 There’s a lot of money being made, selling treatments that may or may not work, but on
    0:50:42 the research and the public health side of the equation, plainly not nearly as robust.
    0:50:47 I’m curious why it would be in a case where if you think of just supply and demand, there’s
    0:50:51 plainly a lot of demand for allergy remediation and so on.
    0:50:56 The public would like to know more, to suffer less and so on.
    0:51:00 If the split I’m describing is accurate, why do you think there is such a big split?
    0:51:04 Because the public doesn’t decide which grants get funded.
    0:51:09 The trouble is that the drug companies are so powerful and they advertise so much that
    0:51:16 people just get the idea that that’s what it is and actually the guidelines are warped.
    0:51:22 I’ve been on a guideline panel for asthma where we were told that we should focus on
    0:51:27 large controlled trials published in the last five years.
    0:51:30 Well, that basically means drug studies.
    0:51:36 The number of large controlled trials of tick avoidance that are being done is zero.
    0:51:39 No one could afford to do them.
    0:51:44 Companies have a lot of money and they do big well controlled trials, some of which are
    0:51:51 really important, but many of which are me too or trying a new drug which is a very tiny
    0:51:53 variant of the previous.
    0:51:56 It’s much more important to try and understand what’s happened.
    0:52:02 I’ve written a history of food allergy and there are three forms of food allergy which
    0:52:10 are peanut and the other allergens that cause immediate hypersensitivity eosinophilic esophagitis
    0:52:16 and the alpha-gal syndrome and why I pull those apart is because they’re mechanistically
    0:52:24 completely different, causally different and the reasons why they’ve increased are different.
    0:52:28 Peanut is probably ridiculous washing of the skin with detergents.
    0:52:35 EOE, we’ve just published a hypothesis that the processing of milk is a major part of
    0:52:36 that.
    0:52:43 Instead of pasteurizing milk at 84 degrees centigrade, all the milk you drink is heated
    0:52:49 to 135 degrees centigrade, it’s dead and it’s homogenized which means the particles are
    0:52:56 all changed so they’re much smaller and we say weaponized to immunize the esophagus.
    0:53:03 The third one, the alpha-gal syndrome, we believe is primarily due to the loss of dogs
    0:53:05 in the suburban areas.
    0:53:12 What happened in the early ’80s is leash laws and now the dogs can’t get together to
    0:53:17 drive the deer out and so we all have a herd of deer on our lawn and the deer are covered
    0:53:19 with ticks.
    0:53:24 This connection that Platts Mills has drawn between leash laws and a boom in the tick
    0:53:28 population is not his only unusual theory.
    0:53:35 I was very well known in the ’70s for saying that television had had a major effect on
    0:53:37 asthma.
    0:53:43 We published a paper in which we showed that if people watched a screen, they took less
    0:53:45 deep breaths.
    0:53:48 If they’re reading a book, they still breathe normally.
    0:53:54 If a child is watching television and you touch their shoulder, they actually jump slightly
    0:53:56 because they’re in a trance.
    0:54:02 They’re not unconscious, they’re not asleep, but they’re in a trance and during that time,
    0:54:07 the hypothesis was that that prevents their breathing and the deep breaths are a better
    0:54:10 bronchoder later than albuterol.
    0:54:15 What’s happened since then, if you want something really silly, is the children no longer watching
    0:54:21 television because they’ve got cell phones and the cell phones don’t put them into a
    0:54:25 trance and asthma has actually become less of a problem.
    0:54:30 The asthma doctors will be horrified if they hear anyone suggesting that asthma is anything
    0:54:32 but a total problem.
    0:54:37 But actually, peanut allergy has become more of a problem than asthma.
    0:54:40 But a totally different causal mechanism, yes?
    0:54:42 Totally different, yes.
    0:54:45 What are your views on celiac disease and gluten allergy?
    0:54:52 Yeah, Gideon Lack, who did the LEAP study, has been looking at celiac and seeing whether
    0:54:59 natural exposure to wheat in early childhood would prevent celiac disease.
    0:55:05 And I think he’s got some evidence, but it’s not of a level comparable to the LEAP study.
    0:55:09 The LEAP study was a tremendous breakthrough.
    0:55:16 This LEAP study that stands for Learning Early About Peanut Allergy was published in 2015
    0:55:19 by the pediatric allergist Gideon Lack.
    0:55:26 It argued that feeding peanuts to babies will actually reduce their risk of a peanut allergy.
    0:55:31 Much of the evidence came from Israel, where babies routinely eat bomba, a puffy peanut
    0:55:33 butter flavored snack.
    0:55:39 Full disclosure, some adults also love bomba.
    0:55:42 Given what we’ve been hearing about allergies these past few decades, especially peanut
    0:55:48 allergies, you can imagine that many parents would be terrified to let their baby get anywhere
    0:55:51 near a peanut snack.
    0:55:56 Once a conventional wisdom is established, it can be hard to dislodge.
    0:56:00 Which gets us back to the allergy with which we began this episode.
    0:56:06 A whole generation of doctors were trained thinking that penicillin allergy was very
    0:56:07 dangerous.
    0:56:08 And very common.
    0:56:09 And very common.
    0:56:10 And it isn’t.
    0:56:15 When I got here in ’82, I already was saying things that, “No, you don’t need to worry
    0:56:16 about it as much as this.
    0:56:20 You need to ask the question and take precautions and be sensible.”
    0:56:26 If someone had no history in 15 years, the chances that they’re penicillin allergic are
    0:56:27 very small.
    0:56:28 So what are some solutions?
    0:56:32 Can you talk about clearing people of penicillin allergy, for instance?
    0:56:35 By the way, the reason we’re doing this episode is this is something that happened with me.
    0:56:38 I was told as a child I was allergic to penicillin.
    0:56:42 I avoided it for approximately 50 years.
    0:56:47 My current doctor, she said, “You know, we should test.”
    0:56:48 So I did.
    0:56:49 And you were negative.
    0:56:50 I was negative.
    0:56:55 But I had to go through this two-day, first the test and then the challenge test, where
    0:56:57 you actually get a little bit of it.
    0:57:00 It’s plainly something that’s not scalable right now.
    0:57:03 So I’m curious what you think are solutions.
    0:57:05 I’m waking my head.
    0:57:07 People have been trying for a long time.
    0:57:12 I can’t tell you how many of the residents who apply for our fellowship have been doing
    0:57:16 a study on delabeling penicillin.
    0:57:19 So this is not something that people are ignoring.
    0:57:21 Can you explain why it’s so difficult?
    0:57:27 Because as much as medical technology has changed, I mean, everything from time release
    0:57:33 medicines to the mRNA vaccine, I mean, there’s so much technology that has accelerated discovery
    0:57:34 in medicine.
    0:57:40 Why is it so hard in this case to come up with a, let’s say, cheaper, faster, more scalable
    0:57:41 way to clear people?
    0:57:47 Well, there’s quite a lot of literature that says you can’t quite rely on a blood test.
    0:57:53 And that’s what we should have is a simple blood test for IgE to penicillin that absolutely
    0:58:00 solves the problem.
    0:58:04 Kimberly Blumenthal is one of the people who has been working on a better blood test
    0:58:06 for penicillin allergy.
    0:58:07 We were trying so hard.
    0:58:11 I was working with Thermo Fisher Scientific.
    0:58:16 They have developed a blood test panel and they wanted to see if it worked in allergic
    0:58:18 individuals from America.
    0:58:23 We identified in the Boston area, everyone that reacted to penicillin in front of our
    0:58:26 faces in the last few years.
    0:58:34 We sent them the blood of these individuals and I think it picked up like three of 20.
    0:58:36 It didn’t pick it up yet.
    0:58:38 What makes it so hard?
    0:58:42 The conclusion was, well, they were allergic in the last five, 10 years.
    0:58:45 Maybe they weren’t allergic now.
    0:58:49 So I have to bring them back, retest them.
    0:58:52 And then these patients, they’re like needles and haystacks, right?
    0:58:58 We combed the records of all Mass General Brigham to find these 22 penicillin allergics.
    0:59:02 We really need to say, okay, you reacted to penicillin in front of my face today, grab
    0:59:07 your blood and then send it to be able to know that they were true positives.
    0:59:10 But you’re making progress, it sounds like.
    0:59:11 Slowly.
    0:59:14 I mean, by the time you’re 600 years old, this problem will be solved.
    0:59:18 One of my mentors said to me, if you do your job well, you have no job.
    0:59:21 And I’m like, I just don’t think that’s going to happen.
    0:59:22 There’s always something else.
    0:59:26 We need better tests now, back to the basic science in the lab.
    0:59:32 And then on the population level, we’re thinking about implementing penicillin allergy evaluation
    0:59:34 in primary care.
    0:59:40 We just created a measure of de-labeled patients in our healthcare system.
    0:59:44 And even just now that I can measure it, I can measure it in this clinic and that clinic.
    0:59:49 And I can see what types of interventions move the needle towards a higher percentage
    0:59:51 of de-labeled patients.
    0:59:58 So what would your message be to anyone who believes that they are allergic to penicillin
    0:59:59 now?
    1:00:01 Get tested, get tested.
    1:00:06 If we were to jump ahead 20, 30, 50 years or something, I would imagine that given the
    1:00:12 benefits of gene sequencing and machine learning and artificial intelligence, it would be pretty
    1:00:18 simple at birth to either understand everything that a given person might be susceptible to
    1:00:21 allergy-wise or just correct it.
    1:00:23 I think it’s possible.
    1:00:27 And it’s also possible that we could alter our drugs to be less allergenic.
    1:00:28 How would you do that?
    1:00:29 Oh, goodness.
    1:00:37 We’d have to know what metabolite of the drug is forming bonds in our body to make the allergen.
    1:00:42 And so it requires a lot of combined intelligence from different people.
    1:00:45 I realized, though, as I asked that question that it’s a little touchy for you because I’d
    1:00:47 be putting you out of business.
    1:00:48 You okay with that?
    1:00:54 Yeah, I would stop happy if we have some sort of way that everybody knows if they can or
    1:00:58 cannot have penicillin or any drug or they’re going to be allergic or not.
    1:01:04 If we were able to correct the 30 million mislabels in just America, I’m happy.
    1:01:05 I’m retired.
    1:01:08 And you just open a florist shop or something like that and be okay?
    1:01:09 I do like floral design.
    1:01:13 Well, there you go.
    1:01:17 I would like to thank Kimberly Blumenthal for the good conversation today as well as
    1:01:22 Thomas Platsmills, Teresa McFail, and Alina Resnick.
    1:01:28 Thanks also to Dr. Resnick for clearing my stupid penicillin allergy label.
    1:01:35 And thanks to Becky Kurth, Dr. Deb Jones, Dr. Leni Hurst, and all the other medical professionals
    1:01:43 who helped turn me from a bone-tired coughing machine into, well, back into me, I am grateful.
    1:01:47 Making this episode was a good reminder of how much I love physicians.
    1:01:53 Their drive, their curiosity, their willingness to admit what they don’t know yet and then
    1:01:57 to work ridiculously hard to find out more.
    1:02:03 Coming up next time on the show, there is another group of professionals out there who may not
    1:02:07 be quite as beloved as doctors.
    1:02:13 Their professional association has been described as somewhere between a monopoly and a mafia.
    1:02:17 Yeah, I take great offense at that characterization.
    1:02:23 The National Association of Realtors was recently sued for conspiring to inflate agent commissions.
    1:02:29 It’s just hard not to say that, man, these prices just seem way higher than they need
    1:02:31 to be to get the job done.
    1:02:32 That’s next time on the show.
    1:02:37 And remember, our episodes now come out on Friday morning, East Coast time.
    1:02:39 Until then, take care of yourself.
    1:02:42 And if you can, someone else, too.
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    1:03:49 [MUSIC PLAYING]

    Like tens of millions of people, Stephen Dubner thought he had a penicillin allergy. Like the vast majority, he didn’t. This misdiagnosis costs billions of dollars and causes serious health problems, so why hasn’t it been fixed? And how about all the other things we think we’re allergic to?

     

    • SOURCES:
      • Kimberly Blumenthal, allergist-immunologist and researcher at Mass General Hospital and Harvard Medical School.
      • Theresa MacPhail, associate professor of science and technology studies at Stevens Institute of Technology.
      • Thomas Platts-Mills, professor of medicine at the University of Virginia.
      • Elena Resnick, allergist and immunologist at Mount Sinai Hospital.