Author: Lex Fridman Podcast

  • #474 – DHH: Future of Programming, AI, Ruby on Rails, Productivity & Parenting

    AI transcript
    0:00:05 The following is a conversation with David Heinemeyer Hansen, also known as DHH.
    0:00:11 He is a legend in the programming and tech world, brilliant and insightful,
    0:00:14 sometimes controversial, and always fun to talk to.
    0:00:20 He’s the creator of Ruby on Rails, which is an influential web development framework
    0:00:26 behind many websites used by millions of people, including Shopify, GitHub, and Airbnb.
    0:00:34 He is the co-owner and CTO of 37 Signals that created Basecamp, Hey, and Once.
    0:00:42 He is a New York Times bestselling author, together with his co-author, Jason Fried, of four books,
    0:00:47 Rework, Remote, Getting Real, and It Doesn’t Have to be Crazy at Work.
    0:00:54 And on top of that, he’s also a race car driver, including being a class winner at the legendary
    0:00:56 24-hour Le Mans race.
    0:01:01 And now, a quick few-second mention of a sponsor.
    0:01:05 Check them out in the description or at lexfriedman.com slash sponsors.
    0:01:07 It’s the best way to support this podcast.
    0:01:11 We got a couple of new sponsors, actually, so please go support them.
    0:01:18 Uplift Desk for beautiful workspaces, Lindy for building AI agents, Element for hydration,
    0:01:22 Shopify for selling stuff online, and NetSuite for your business.
    0:01:23 Choose wisely, my friends.
    0:01:25 And now, on to the full ad reads.
    0:01:29 I do try to make them interesting, but if you skip, please still check out our sponsors.
    0:01:31 I enjoy their stuff.
    0:01:32 Maybe you will, too.
    0:01:36 To get in touch with me, for whatever reason, go to lexfriedman.com slash contact.
    0:01:37 All right, let’s go.
    0:01:40 This episode is brought to you by Uplift Desk.
    0:01:44 Like I mentioned, it’s a new sponsor, but I’ve been using them for many, many years.
    0:01:47 I have six Uplift Desks.
    0:01:50 So three of them are in the podcast studio.
    0:01:54 So across many years, I don’t know how many years, three, four years, if you see the sort
    0:02:01 of wood-colored desk in the podcast studio on camera, those are Uplift Desks.
    0:02:04 Once again, have loved them, have used them for many years.
    0:02:06 I also use it for the programming setup.
    0:02:11 I use it for the robotics work I’m doing, and I’m also using it for music when I practice
    0:02:11 guitar.
    0:02:15 For programming, I split my time standing and sitting.
    0:02:20 I think they have some ridiculous amount of possible desk combinations, but I went with
    0:02:26 the biggest or close to the biggest, and mostly because I love horizontal desk space.
    0:02:28 Anyway, I can’t believe they’re sponsoring the podcast.
    0:02:31 I feel truly fortunate that they are.
    0:02:33 I feel truly fortunate to be alive.
    0:02:37 It’s just all of us feels like a simulation, because I’ve been using them for so long.
    0:02:42 The fact that they somehow decided out of nowhere to be sponsoring this podcast is like,
    0:02:44 what is happening?
    0:02:51 Anyway, go to upliftdesk.com and use code LEX to get four free accessories, free same-day
    0:02:56 shipping, free returns, a 15-year warranty, and an extra discount off your entire order.
    0:03:02 That’s U-P-L-I-F-T-D-E-S-K.com slash LEX.
    0:03:05 This episode was also brought to you by Linde.
    0:03:09 It’s a platform that helps you build multiple AI agents in minutes.
    0:03:11 No code.
    0:03:12 It could do a lot of stuff.
    0:03:13 Sales, customer support, recruiting.
    0:03:15 It could take care of phone calls.
    0:03:17 It can do a bunch of email automations.
    0:03:20 Integrates quite incredibly with a huge number of services.
    0:03:22 All of the Google services.
    0:03:25 Drive, Gmail, Slack, HubSpot.
    0:03:27 User-friendly, easy to set up.
    0:03:28 Let’s see.
    0:03:29 You can do a bunch of other kind of stuff.
    0:03:30 Meetings.
    0:03:32 A lot of people talk about using it for meetings.
    0:03:33 Meetings, recording.
    0:03:34 It can monitor job boards.
    0:03:37 It can snapshot Airbnb listings via Gmail.
    0:03:44 It can easily set up if this, then that automations, including filters and conditions for more tailored
    0:03:45 responses to emails.
    0:03:51 And they have just a huge number of templates and recipes to get you started with any kinds of automations.
    0:03:55 You can deploy your first AI agent in just 24 hours.
    0:04:04 Sign up at go.lindy.ai slash lex to get two weeks free plus 50% off a pro plan for a year.
    0:04:07 That’s go.lindy.ai slash lex.
    0:04:13 This episode is also brought to you by Element, my daily zero sugar and delicious electrolyte mix.
    0:04:20 I’m sipping in it right now because I had a crazy difficult workout at a shitty hotel gym.
    0:04:26 I’ve actually not been to many hotels in my life that have a great gym, but the challenge
    0:04:29 and many of the amazing things in life are all about the challenge.
    0:04:35 The challenge with hotels and the hotel gyms is to get a good workout while there.
    0:04:41 The one positive thing about those gyms is that they’re usually empty and there is on
    0:04:47 the negative side of the empty, a kind of depressing quality, almost like a sad coldness.
    0:04:51 And it is usually extremely air conditioned to that gym.
    0:04:56 The treadmills have not been used for years and there’s the dumbbells that only go up to
    0:05:01 50 and those haven’t been used and there’s just a sadness to the whole thing.
    0:05:10 So you have to reinvigorate the space, I would say, by going nuts and just sweating your ass
    0:05:10 off.
    0:05:11 That’s what I try to do.
    0:05:16 Anyway, before that and after that, I hydrate and rehydrate always with Element.
    0:05:20 Get a free eight count sample pack for free with any purchase.
    0:05:23 Try it at drinkelement.com slash lex.
    0:05:29 This episode is also brought to you by Shopify, a platform designed for anyone to sell anywhere
    0:05:31 with a great looking online store.
    0:05:37 In fact, in this very episode, we talk about how amazing Toby, the CEO of Shopify and Shopify
    0:05:42 is because of the underlying technology of it running on Rails, Ruby on Rails.
    0:05:49 And DHH lays out brilliantly and rigorously with clarity in an awe-inspiring way, I would say,
    0:05:53 why Ruby and Ruby on Rails is just a beautiful programming language.
    0:05:58 And one of the concerns, sort of the memes about it was that, does it really scale?
    0:06:04 And I think Shopify also responding with memes on top of memes showed that it can scale incredibly.
    0:06:08 I’m always fascinated by the technological details that allow this kind of scale.
    0:06:11 That’s true for social networks.
    0:06:12 That’s true for e-commerce sites.
    0:06:17 I’ll probably do a conversation with Pavel Durov, a telegram event, and one of the things
    0:06:23 that’s really fascinating to me is the very detailed technological challenges of pulling that off.
    0:06:26 And I’ll probably also talk to Toby eventually, in part for that.
    0:06:31 But there’s a lot of really incredible, brilliant people in Silicon Valley who have all said
    0:06:37 just how smart Toby is, not just in the space of technology, but also in the space of business
    0:06:43 and the space of philosophy broadly about human existence, about this whole thing that we have
    0:06:43 going on here.
    0:06:49 But anyway, you can sign up for a $1 per month trial period at shopify.com slash lex.
    0:06:51 That’s all lowercase.
    0:06:54 Go to shopify.com slash lex to take your business to the next level today.
    0:07:01 This episode is also brought to you by NetSuite, an all-in-one cloud business management system.
    0:07:05 It’s an ERP system, enterprise resource planning.
    0:07:07 That’s the machine within the machine of a company.
    0:07:11 You could think of it as a kind of API between the different components of a company and manages
    0:07:16 those different components and ensures that they can communicate effectively, manages financials,
    0:07:20 HR, inventory, supply, e-commerce, and all that kind of stuff.
    0:07:26 One of my favorite podcasts called Founders that I highly recommend to everybody is making
    0:07:30 me fall in love with businesses and entrepreneurs of all kinds, more and more.
    0:07:33 It’s such a fascinating puzzle how to get right.
    0:07:38 And the people that do in all the different ways that they do are just geniuses.
    0:07:44 They’re bold, they’re fearless, sometimes lucky, but almost always there’s a deep wisdom in there
    0:07:47 how to pull it off, how to put it all on the line and make it happen.
    0:07:51 David is the host of the podcast. I’m sure I’ll do a podcast with him eventually.
    0:07:54 Anyway, the point is creating and running a business is difficult.
    0:08:01 So yeah, download the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning at netsuite.com slash lex.
    0:08:03 That’s netsuite.com slash lex.
    0:08:06 This is the Lex Freemant Podcast.
    0:08:11 To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description or at lexfreemant.com slash sponsors.
    0:08:18 And consider subscribing, commenting, and sharing the podcast with folks who might find it interesting.
    0:08:23 I promise to work extremely hard to always bring you nuanced, long-form conversations
    0:08:27 with a wide variety of interesting people from all walks of life.
    0:08:31 And now, dear friends, here’s DHH.
    0:08:54 For someone who became a legendary programmer, you officially got into programming late in life.
    0:09:00 And I guess that’s because you tried to learn how to program a few times and you failed.
    0:09:06 So can you tell me the full story, the saga of your failures to learn programming?
    0:09:08 Was Commodore 64 involved?
    0:09:10 Commodore 64 was the inspiration.
    0:09:12 I really wanted a Commodore 64.
    0:09:15 That was the first computer I ever sat down in front.
    0:09:18 And the way I sat down in front of it was I was five years old.
    0:09:22 And there was this one kid on my street who had a Commodore 64.
    0:09:23 No one else had a computer.
    0:09:28 So we were all the kids just getting over there and we were all playing Yer Kung Fu.
    0:09:30 I don’t know if you’ve ever seen that game.
    0:09:31 It was one of the original fighting games.
    0:09:33 It’s really a great game.
    0:09:35 And I was playing that for the first time at five years old.
    0:09:42 And we were like seven kids sitting up in this one kid’s bedroom, all taking our turn to play the game.
    0:09:45 And I just found that unbelievably interesting.
    0:09:50 And I begged and I begged and I begged my dad, could I get a computer?
    0:09:53 And he finally comes home.
    0:09:53 He’s like, I got your computer.
    0:09:56 I was like, yes, my own Commodore 64.
    0:10:02 And he pulls out this black, green, and blue keyboard.
    0:10:05 That’s an Armstrad 464.
    0:10:07 I was like, dad, what’s this?
    0:10:10 The disappointment.
    0:10:12 This is not a Commodore 64.
    0:10:13 But it was a computer.
    0:10:20 So I got my first computer at essentially six years old, that Armstrad 464.
    0:10:23 And of course, the first thing I wanted to do, I wanted to play video games.
    0:10:32 And I think the computer, which he, by the way, had traded for a TV and a stereo recorder or something like that, came with like two games.
    0:10:36 One was this Frogger game where you had to escape from underground.
    0:10:38 It was actually kind of dark, like this frog.
    0:10:39 You’re trying to get it out from underground.
    0:10:41 And I was just, I was pretty bad at it.
    0:10:43 And I only had those two games.
    0:10:45 And then I wanted more games.
    0:10:52 And one way to get more games when you’re a kid who doesn’t have a lot of money and can’t just buy a bunch of games is to type them in yourself.
    0:11:00 Back in 84, 85, magazines would literally print source code at the back of their magazines.
    0:11:02 And you could just sit and type it in.
    0:11:03 So I tried to do that.
    0:11:09 And it would take like two hours to print this game into the Armstrad.
    0:11:13 And of course, I’d make some spelling mistake along the way and something wouldn’t work.
    0:11:15 And the whole thing, I wasn’t that good of English.
    0:11:16 I was born in Denmark.
    0:11:21 So I was really trying to get into it because I wanted all these games.
    0:11:22 I didn’t have the money to buy them.
    0:11:25 And I tried quite hard for quite a while to get into it.
    0:11:26 But it just never clicked.
    0:11:29 And then I discovered the magic of piracy.
    0:11:37 And after that, I kind of basically just took some time off from learning the program because, well, now suddenly I had access to all sorts of games.
    0:11:41 So that was the first attempt, like around six, seven years old.
    0:11:45 And what’s funny is I remember these fragments.
    0:11:48 I remember not understanding the purpose of a variable.
    0:11:53 If there’s a thing and you assign something, why would you assign another thing to it?
    0:11:55 So for some reason, I understand constants.
    0:11:58 Like constants made sense to me, but variables didn’t.
    0:12:01 Then maybe I’m 11 to 12.
    0:12:04 I’ve gotten into the Amiga at this point.
    0:12:05 The Amiga, by the way.
    0:12:08 Still perhaps my favorite computer of all time.
    0:12:13 I mean, this is one of those things where you’re like, people get older and they’re like, oh, the music from the 80s was amazing.
    0:12:25 To me, even as someone who loves computers, who loves new computers, the Amiga was this magical machine that was made by the same company that produced the Commodore 64.
    0:12:31 And I got the Amiga 500, I think in 87.
    0:12:32 Look at this sexy thing.
    0:12:35 That is a sexy machine right there.
    0:12:39 This is from an age, by the way, where computing wasn’t global in the same sense.
    0:12:42 The different territories had different computers that were popular.
    0:12:48 The Amiga was really popular in Europe, but it wasn’t very popular at all in the U.S. as far as I understand it.
    0:12:49 It wasn’t popular in Japan.
    0:12:51 There were just different machines.
    0:12:54 The Apple II was a big thing in the U.S.
    0:12:57 I’d never even heard of Apple in the 80s in Copenhagen.
    0:13:02 But the Amiga 500 was the machine that brought me to want to try it again.
    0:13:03 And you know what’s funny?
    0:13:07 The reason I wanted to try it again was I remembered the first time to learn.
    0:13:12 And then there was this programming language that was literally called Easy Amos.
    0:13:14 Like the easy version of Amos.
    0:13:17 I’m like, if it’s Easy Amos, how hard can it be?
    0:13:19 I got to be able to figure this out.
    0:13:21 And this time I tried harder.
    0:13:24 I got into conditionals.
    0:13:25 I got into loops.
    0:13:26 I got into all these things.
    0:13:28 And I still, I couldn’t do it.
    0:13:34 And on the second attempt, I really got to the point of like, maybe this is, maybe I’m not smart enough.
    0:13:36 Maybe programming is just enough.
    0:13:38 Maybe it’s too much math.
    0:13:41 Like, I like math in this sort of superficial way.
    0:13:47 I don’t like it in the deep way that some of my, perhaps slightly nerdier friends did, who I had tremendous respect for.
    0:13:49 I’m like, I’m not that person.
    0:13:53 I’m not the math geek who’s going to figure it all out.
    0:14:02 So after that attempt with Easy Amos and failing to even get, I don’t even think I completed one even very basic game.
    0:14:04 I thought, the program is just not for me.
    0:14:06 I’m going to have to do something else.
    0:14:07 I still love computers.
    0:14:08 I still love video games.
    0:14:15 I actually, at that time, had already begun making friends with people who knew how to program, who weren’t even programming Easy Amos.
    0:14:16 They were programming freaking Assembler.
    0:14:24 And I would sit down and just go, how do you, the moves and the memories and the copies, how do you even do this?
    0:14:30 I don’t even understand how you go from this to Amiga demos, for example.
    0:14:31 That was the big thing with the Amiga.
    0:14:33 It had this wonderful demo scene in Europe.
    0:14:39 It’s this really interesting period of time in the Amiga’s history.
    0:14:50 We had all these programmers spread out mostly all over Europe who would compete on graphic competitions where you could probably bring one of these up on YouTube.
    0:15:02 On this thing, they would make these little almost like music videos combining some MIDI music, combining some cool graphics, and they would do all of it in like 4K.
    0:15:07 4 kilobytes, that is, not 4Ks of revolution, 4 kilobytes of memory.
    0:15:10 And I just thought that was such a cool scene.
    0:15:12 This was obviously pre-internet.
    0:15:17 It was even pre-BBS, bulletin board systems, to some extent.
    0:15:26 It was you swap your demo software with someone else by sending them a disk in the mail, like the 3.5s.
    0:15:29 And I just, I was enamored with that whole scene.
    0:15:31 I was enamored with what they were able to create.
    0:15:35 And I just wanted to be a part of it, even though I kind of didn’t have any skills to contribute.
    0:15:38 And that’s how I got into running BBSs.
    0:15:44 I didn’t learn programming then, and I wouldn’t learn programming until much later, until I was almost 20 years old.
    0:15:55 The bulletin board systems existed in this funny space where they were partly a service to the demo scenes, allowing all these demo groups to distribute their amazing demos.
    0:16:00 And then it was also a place to trade piracy software, pirated software.
    0:16:06 And I ended up starting one of those when I was 14 years old, in my tiny little bedroom in Copenhagen.
    0:16:09 I had my, at that point, Amiga 4000.
    0:16:15 I had three telephone lines coming into my tiny room.
    0:16:15 Nice.
    0:16:18 Which was funny because, again, I’m 14 years old.
    0:16:23 By the time I was installing my third line, you had to get someone from the telephone company to come do it.
    0:16:27 I get this guy, and he’s just looking around like, what is this?
    0:16:32 Why the hell is a 14-year-old having three phone lines into their tiny little bedroom?
    0:16:34 What are, what’s going on here?
    0:16:39 Why are all these modems blinking red and black and making funny sounds?
    0:16:40 Did your parents know?
    0:16:42 They did and they didn’t.
    0:16:44 They knew I had the phone lines.
    0:16:45 They knew I had the computer.
    0:16:53 I don’t think they really understood that I was trading pirated software that was both illegal and whatever else was going on.
    0:17:03 We should probably say that in Europe, maybe you can comment on this, especially in Eastern Europe, but Europe in general, piracy, I think, was more acceptable than it was in the United States.
    0:17:04 I don’t know.
    0:17:07 Maybe it’s just my upbringing.
    0:17:09 Even that conversation wasn’t present.
    0:17:15 I never spoke to anyone growing up in Denmark who had any moral qualms whatsoever about piracy.
    0:17:22 It was just completely accepted that you’re a kid, you want a lot of games, you don’t have a lot of money.
    0:17:22 What do you do?
    0:17:23 You trade.
    0:17:26 Some people would occasionally buy a game.
    0:17:33 I mean, I once bought a Sega Master System and I bought one game because that was what I could afford.
    0:17:34 I got Afterburner 2.
    0:17:36 I don’t know if you’ve ever played that game.
    0:17:43 It’s pretty bad implementation on the Sega Master System, but it was like 600 crowners.
    0:17:47 And I was making money at that time doing newspaper delivery.
    0:17:51 I had to do that for a month to afford one game.
    0:17:55 I like video games way too much to wait a month just to get one game.
    0:17:58 So piracy was just the way you did it.
    0:18:05 And that was how I got into running this bulletin board system, being part of the demo scene, being part of the piracy scene to some extent.
    0:18:11 And then also at some point realizing, oh, you can actually also make money on this.
    0:18:16 And this can fund buying more phone lines and buying more modems and buying more Amigas.
    0:18:17 Oh, yeah.
    0:18:18 That was one of the demo parties.
    0:18:19 These were amazing things.
    0:18:21 What am I looking at?
    0:18:22 Isn’t that amazing?
    0:18:23 Look at all those CRT monitors.
    0:18:25 All these CRT monitors.
    0:18:30 Again, when I was 14, I don’t understand fully why my parents allowed this.
    0:18:43 But I traveled from Copenhagen, the capital of Denmark, to Aus, this tiny little town in Jutland, on the train with a bunch of dudes who were like late teens and their 20s.
    0:18:44 I’m 14 years old.
    0:18:50 I’m lugging my 14-inch CRT monitor with my computer in the back to go to the party.
    0:18:51 That was what it was called.
    0:18:54 That was the biggest demo scene party at that time.
    0:18:55 And it was exactly as you see in that picture.
    0:19:03 Thousands of people just lining up with their computers, programming demos all day long, and trading these things back and forth.
    0:19:05 That’s kind of awesome.
    0:19:06 Not going to lie.
    0:19:07 It’s a little ridiculous.
    0:19:08 It’s totally awesome.
    0:19:13 And I miss it in ways where the internet has connected people in some ways.
    0:19:22 But the connection you get from sitting right next to someone else who has their own CRT monitor, who’s lugged it halfway around the country to get there, is truly special.
    0:19:25 Because it was also just this burst of creativity.
    0:19:27 You’re constantly running around.
    0:19:29 You’re constantly surrounded by people who are really good at what they could do.
    0:19:31 They’re really good at programming computers.
    0:19:32 It’s infectious.
    0:19:38 It was part of that pang I felt then going like, oh, man, why can’t I figure this out?
    0:19:40 I mean, why can’t I even figure out Easy Amos?
    0:19:43 It’s kind of frustrating.
    0:19:46 But on your third attempt, you were more successful.
    0:19:49 So third attempt is when I start getting it.
    0:19:54 This is when I start helping out, let’s say, building things for the internet.
    0:20:00 So around 95, I think it is, or 96, I discovered the internet.
    0:20:02 Actually, ninth grade.
    0:20:03 That was my first experience.
    0:20:07 I went to some university in Denmark.
    0:20:10 And in ninth grade, we had this excursion.
    0:20:12 And they sat us down in front of a computer.
    0:20:15 And the computer had Netscape Navigator, the first version.
    0:20:18 Or maybe it was even the precursor to that.
    0:20:20 And they had a text editor.
    0:20:23 And us kids just got like, hey, build something on the internet.
    0:20:23 And it was just HTML.
    0:20:29 And the first thing you do is like, oh, I can make the text blink by just putting in this tag and saving it.
    0:20:38 That moment, that was actually when I reawakened the urge to want to learn the program because I got a positive experience.
    0:20:44 All the other experiences I had with programming was I’d spend hours typing something in.
    0:20:46 I’d click run and it wouldn’t work.
    0:20:52 And I’d get an error message that made no sense to me as a kid, either at 6 or 7 or at 12.
    0:20:55 And here I am sitting in front of a computer connected to the internet.
    0:20:57 And I’m making text blink.
    0:20:58 I’m making it larger.
    0:21:00 I’m turning it into an H1 or an H2.
    0:21:05 And these guys out here, we just did it for like an hour and a half.
    0:21:12 And suddenly I go, oh, I can make things for the internet that someone in Germany can be able to access and see.
    0:21:14 And I don’t have to ask anyone for permission.
    0:21:16 This is super cool.
    0:21:16 I got to do more of this.
    0:21:18 So I got into the internet.
    0:21:20 I got into working with HTML.
    0:21:22 And I still had all these friends from these demo parties.
    0:21:26 And I started working with them on creating gaming websites.
    0:21:28 I’d write about the video games.
    0:21:28 I’d review them.
    0:21:34 This was another good way of getting new video games was to walk down to some store and say like, hey, I’m a journalist.
    0:21:36 I’m like this 15-year-old kid.
    0:21:37 And they’re looking at me.
    0:21:38 You’re a journalist?
    0:21:40 Yeah, can I borrow some games?
    0:21:46 Because this was when games moved on to the PlayStation and these other things you couldn’t just as easily pirate.
    0:21:47 At least not at first.
    0:21:49 So I went down there, did all that.
    0:21:53 And that started the journey of the internet for me.
    0:21:58 It started working on these gaming websites, working with programmers, figuring out that I could do something.
    0:22:00 I could work on the HTML part.
    0:22:02 It’s not really programming, but it kind of smells like it.
    0:22:03 You’re talking to a computer.
    0:22:05 You’re making it put text on the screen.
    0:22:08 And you’re communicating with someone halfway around the world.
    0:22:12 So that became my pathway back into programming.
    0:22:15 And then slowly I picked up more and more of it.
    0:22:22 First website I did with someone, one of these programmers from the demo scene that was dynamic was ASP.net.
    0:22:24 It wasn’t even actually called .net.
    0:22:25 That was what we started on.
    0:22:27 And then we moved on to PHP.
    0:22:29 And PHP was when I finally got it.
    0:22:30 When it finally clicked.
    0:22:41 And conditionals and loops and variables and all of that stuff started to make sense enough to me that I thought, I can do this.
    0:22:48 So would it be fair to say that we wouldn’t have DHH without PHP and therefore you owe all your success to PHP?
    0:22:50 A hundred percent, that’s true.
    0:22:52 And it’s even better than that.
    0:22:58 Because PHP to me didn’t just give me a start in terms of making my own web applications.
    0:23:00 It actually gave me a bar.
    0:23:07 In many ways, I think the pinnacle of web developer ergonomics is late 90s PHP.
    0:23:13 You write this script, you FTP it to a server, and instantly it’s deployed.
    0:23:15 Instantly it’s available.
    0:23:18 You change anything in that file and you reload.
    0:23:18 Boom, it’s right there.
    0:23:20 There’s no web servers.
    0:23:22 There’s no setup.
    0:23:25 There’s just an Apache that runs mod.php.
    0:23:30 And it was essentially the easiest way to get a dynamic web page up and going.
    0:23:35 And this is one of the things I’ve been chasing that high for basically the rest of my career.
    0:23:41 That it was so easy to make things for the internet in the mid to late 90s.
    0:23:53 How did we lose the sensibilities that allowed us to not just work this way, but get new people into the industry to give them their success experiences that I had?
    0:24:13 Adding a freaking blink tag to an HTML page, FTPing a PHP page to an Apache web server without knowing really anything about anything, without knowing anything about frameworks, without knowing anything about setup, all of that stuff have really taken us to a place where it sometimes feels like we’re barely better off.
    0:24:19 Web pages aren’t that different from what they were in the late 90s, early 2000s.
    0:24:20 They’re still just forms.
    0:24:22 They’re still just right to databases.
    0:24:27 A lot of people, I think, are very uncomfortable with the fact that they are essentially crud monkeys.
    0:24:34 They just make systems that create, read, update, or delete rows in a database.
    0:24:40 And they have to compensate for that existential dread by overcomplicating things.
    0:24:42 Now, that’s a bit of a character.
    0:24:52 There’s more to it, and there’s things you can learn for more sophisticated ways of thinking about this, but there’s still an ideal here, which is why I was so happy you had Peter Levels on, because he still basically works like this.
    0:24:54 And I look at that and go like, man, that’s amazing.
    0:24:56 Yeah, you’re chasing that high.
    0:24:57 He’s been high all along.
    0:24:58 Yes.
    0:25:03 Using PHP, jQuery, and SQLite.
    0:25:08 I think it’s amazing, because he’s proving that this isn’t just a nostalgic dream.
    0:25:10 He’s actually doing it.
    0:25:11 He’s running all these businesses.
    0:25:18 Now, some of that is, as he would admit up first, up front, is that he’s just one guy.
    0:25:20 And you can do different things when you’re just one guy.
    0:25:31 When you’re working in a team, when I started working on a team, when I started working with Jason Freed on Basecamp, we at first didn’t use version control together.
    0:25:39 I used version control for myself, and then I thought, you know what, designers, they’re probably not smart enough to figure out CVS.
    0:25:43 And therefore, I was just like, no, no, no, you just FTP it up.
    0:25:44 You just FTP it.
    0:25:45 I knew they knew how to do FTP.
    0:25:53 And then after the third time I had overridden their changes, I was like, goddammit, I guess I got to teach Jason CBS to not do that again.
    0:26:05 But I think there’s still way more truth to the fact that we can work the way we did in the 90s, work the way Peter works today, even in the team context.
    0:26:12 And that we’ve been far too willing to hand over far too much of our developer ergonomics to the merchants of complexity.
    0:26:15 And you’ve been chasing that with Rails 8.
    0:26:28 So how do you bring all the cool features of a modern framework and make it no build, make it as easy to create something and to ship it as it was in the 90s with just PHP?
    0:26:37 It’s very difficult for me to beat the Peter Lovell’s approach of just, it’s so easy to just ship some PHP.
    0:26:38 And it should be.
    0:26:40 Why should it be harder than that?
    0:26:46 Our computers today are almost infinitely faster than what they were in the 90s.
    0:26:49 So shouldn’t we be able to work in even easier ways?
    0:26:53 We should be looking back on the 90s and go like, oh, that was way too complicated.
    0:27:00 Now we have more sophisticated technology that’s way faster and it allows us to work in these easier to use ways.
    0:27:01 But that’s not true.
    0:27:07 But now you can see the line I draw in my work with Ruby and Rails and especially with Rails 8.
    0:27:18 No build to me is reaching back to that 90s feeling and going, now we can do some of those things without giving up on all the progress.
    0:27:20 Because I do think you can get too nostalgic.
    0:27:24 I do think you can start just fantasizing that everything was better in the 90s.
    0:27:25 It wasn’t.
    0:27:26 I mean, I was there.
    0:27:28 There was a lot of things that sucked.
    0:27:39 And if we can somehow find a way to combine the advantages and advances we’ve had over the past 20 years with that ease of developer ergonomics, we can win.
    0:27:50 No build is a rejection of the part of web development I’ve hated the most in the past 10, 15 years, which is the JavaScript scene.
    0:27:53 And I don’t say that as someone who hates JavaScript.
    0:27:57 I mean, I often joke that JavaScript is my second favorite programmer language.
    0:27:59 It’s a very distant second.
    0:28:01 Ruby is by far and away number one.
    0:28:02 But I actually like JavaScript.
    0:28:04 I don’t think it’s a bad language.
    0:28:06 It gets a lot of flack.
    0:28:11 People add a string of two plus a one and it gives something nonsense.
    0:28:13 And I just go like, yeah, but why would you do that?
    0:28:14 Just don’t do that.
    0:28:18 The language is actually quite lovely, especially the modern version.
    0:28:26 ES6 that really introduced a proper class syntax to it so I could work with JavaScript in many of the same ways that I love working with Ruby.
    0:28:28 Made things so much better.
    0:28:40 But in the early 2010s until quite recently, all of that advancement happened in preprocessing, happened in built pipelines.
    0:28:44 The browsers couldn’t speak a dialect of JavaScript that was pleasant to work with.
    0:28:58 So everyone started to precompiling their JavaScript to be able to use more modern ways of programming with a browser that was seen as stuck with an ancient version of JavaScript that no one actually wanted to work with.
    0:29:01 And that made sense to me, but it was also deeply unpleasant.
    0:29:11 And I remember thinking during that time, the dark ages, as I refer to them with JavaScript, that this cannot be the final destination.
    0:29:24 There’s no way that we have managed to turn the Internet into such an unpleasant place to work where I would start working on a project in JavaScript using Webpack and all of these dependencies.
    0:29:29 And I would put it down for literally five minutes and I would put it down for literally five minutes and the thing wouldn’t compile anymore.
    0:29:40 The amount of churn that the JavaScript community, especially with its frameworks and its tooling, went through in the decade from 2010 to 2020 was absurd.
    0:29:54 And you had to be trapped inside of that asylum to not realize what an utterly perverse situation we had landed ourselves in.
    0:29:57 Why does everything break all the time?
    0:29:59 I mean, the joke wouldn’t be just that the software would break.
    0:30:00 That would annoy me personally.
    0:30:07 But then I’d go on Hacker News and I’d see some thread on the latest JavaScript release of some framework.
    0:30:13 And the thread would be like, someone would ask, well, aren’t we using the thing we just used three months ago?
    0:30:15 And people would be like, that thing is so outdated.
    0:30:17 That’s so three months ago.
    0:30:20 You got to get with the new program.
    0:30:23 We’re completely rewriting everything for the oomph-teen time.
    0:30:29 And anything you’ve learned in the framework you’ve been spending the last amount of time on, it’s all useless.
    0:30:31 You got to throw everything out and you got to start over.
    0:30:34 Why aren’t you doing it, stupid idiot?
    0:30:38 Is that a kind of mass hysteria that took over the developer community, you think?
    0:30:41 Like where you have to keep creating new frameworks and new frameworks?
    0:30:44 And are we past that dark age?
    0:30:46 I think we’re getting out of it.
    0:30:51 And we’re getting out of it because browsers have gotten so much better.
    0:30:54 There was a stagnation in browser technology.
    0:30:57 Some of it was an overhang all the way back from IE5.
    0:31:08 So IE5 essentially put the whole internet development experience into a deep freeze because Microsoft won the browser wars in the mid-2000s.
    0:31:13 And then they basically disbanded their browser development team because they’re like, all right, job done.
    0:31:15 We don’t need any more innovation on the internet.
    0:31:19 Can we just go back to writing Windows forms or something now that we control everything?
    0:31:26 And it really wasn’t until obviously Firefox kind of kindled a little bit of something.
    0:31:31 Then Chrome got into the scene and Google got serious about moving the web forward.
    0:31:36 That you had a kindling of maybe the browser could be better.
    0:31:39 Maybe the browser wasn’t frozen in time in 2005.
    0:31:45 Maybe the browser could actually evolve like the development platform that it is.
    0:31:56 But then what happened was you had a lot of smart people who poured in to the web because the web turned out to be the greatest application development platform of all time.
    0:31:58 This was where all the money was being made.
    0:32:00 This was where all the billionaires were being minted.
    0:32:05 This was where the Facebooks and whatever of the world came to be.
    0:32:11 So you had all of this brainpower applied to the problem of how to work with the web.
    0:32:24 And there were some very smart people with some, I’m sure, very good ideas who did not have programmer happiness as their motivation number one.
    0:32:36 They had other priorities and those priorities allowed them to discount and even rationalize the complexity they were injecting everywhere.
    0:32:39 Some of that complexity came from organizational structure.
    0:32:44 When you have a company like Facebook, for example, that does depend on the web and want to push it forward,
    0:32:50 But have sliced the development role, job, into these tiny little niches.
    0:32:56 I’m a front-end glob pipeline configurator.
    0:32:57 Oh, yeah.
    0:33:00 Well, I’m a front-end whatever engineer.
    0:33:03 And suddenly the web developer was no longer one person.
    0:33:05 It was 15 different roles.
    0:33:08 That in itself injected a ton of complexity.
    0:33:16 But I also want to give it the bold case here, which was that some of the complexity was necessary to get to where we are today.
    0:33:19 That the complexity was a bridge.
    0:33:26 It wasn’t the destination, but we had to cross that bridge to get to where we are today, where browsers are, frankly, incredible.
    0:33:33 The JavaScript you can write in a text file and then serve on a web server for a browser to ingest is amazing.
    0:33:35 It’s actually a really good experience.
    0:33:36 You don’t need any preprocessing.
    0:33:41 And you can just write text files, send them to a browser, and you have an incredible development.
    0:33:47 And we should also say that it can kind of be broken, at least the HTML, but even the JavaScript could be a little bit broken.
    0:33:48 And it kind of still works.
    0:33:59 Like maybe it half-ass works, but like just the amount of mess, of smelly code that a browser has to deal with is insane.
    0:34:05 This is one of the hardest problems in computing today is to parse the entire internet.
    0:34:18 Because thankfully for us as web developers, but perhaps not so much for the browser developers, every web page that has ever been created, minus the brief period with Flash, still runs today.
    0:34:25 The web page I did in ninth grade would render on a modern browser today, 30 years later.
    0:34:28 That is completely crazy.
    0:34:36 When you think about the amount of evolution we’ve had with the web, how much better we’ve made it, how many more standards browsers have adopted.
    0:34:46 It’s essentially an Apollo project today to create a new browser, which is why it doesn’t happen very often, which is why even companies like Microsoft had to throw in the towel and say we can’t do it.
    0:34:49 Now, I actually don’t think that’s good for the web.
    0:34:55 There is the danger of the monoculture if we just get a single browser engine that runs everything, and we are in danger of that.
    0:35:01 I love the fact that the Lady Bird project, for example, is trying to make a new browser engine from scratch.
    0:35:02 I’ve supported that project.
    0:35:04 I would encourage people to look into that.
    0:35:08 It’s really a wonderful thing.
    0:35:12 It’s staffed by a bunch of people who worked on other browser projects in the past.
    0:35:14 Truly independent web browser.
    0:35:16 We really need that.
    0:35:30 But I can hold that thought in my head at the same time I hold the thought in my head that Google’s Chrome was pivotal to the web surviving as the premier web development platform.
    0:35:53 If it had not been for Google and their entire business, depending on a thriving open web, Apple, Microsoft, I think would have been just as fine to see the web go away, to disappear into being something that’s just served native web application or native mobile applications and native desktop applications that they could completely control.
    0:35:58 So, I have all sorts of problems with Google, but it’s not Chrome.
    0:36:09 Chrome is a complete gift to web developers everywhere, to the web as a development platform, and they deserve an enormous amount of credit, I think, for that.
    0:36:31 But even if it’s entangled with their business model and half of Chrome is code that spies on you or informs targeted ads and a bunch of things I’m not a big fan of, I can divorce that from the fact that we need champions in the corner of the web who have trillions of dollars of market cap value riding on the open web.
    0:36:36 We’re going to take tangents upon a tangent upon a tangent, so let’s go to Chrome.
    0:36:43 I think Chrome positive impact on humanities is immeasurable for reasons that you just described.
    0:36:51 On the technology front, the features they present, the competition they created, it spurred on this wonderful flourishing of web technologies.
    0:36:58 But anyway, I have to ask you about the recent stuff with the DOJ trying to split up Chrome and Google.
    0:37:00 Do you think this is a good idea?
    0:37:02 Do you think this does harm?
    0:37:03 It’s a disaster.
    0:37:13 And I say that as someone who’s been very sympathetic to the antitrust fight, because I do think we have antitrust problems in technology.
    0:37:23 But the one place where we don’t have them, by and large, is with browsers, is with the tools we use to access the open web.
    0:37:25 First of all, we have Firefox.
    0:37:30 Now, Firefox is not doing all that great, and Firefox has been propped up.
    0:37:37 By Google for many years to deter from exactly what’s going on with the DOJ, that they were the only game in town.
    0:37:39 Apple has Safari.
    0:37:42 I have a bunch of problems with Apple, too, but I love Safari.
    0:37:52 I love the fact that we have a premier browser running on a premier operating system that people can’t turn the web into just a Chrome experience.
    0:37:59 But I also think that the open web needs this trillion-dollar champion, or at least benefits from it.
    0:38:02 Maybe it doesn’t need it, but it certainly benefits from it.
    0:38:09 And of all the things that are wrong with monopoly formation in technology, Chrome is the last thing.
    0:38:16 And this is why I get so frustrated sometimes about the anti or the monopoly fight, that there are real problems.
    0:38:23 And we should be focusing on the premier problems first, like the toll booths on our mobile phones.
    0:38:25 They’re a far bigger problem.
    0:38:26 It’s not the open web.
    0:38:27 It’s not the tools that we use to access the open web.
    0:38:36 If I don’t want to use Chrome, if my customers of my businesses that run on the Internet don’t want to use Chrome, they don’t have to.
    0:38:38 We’re never forced to go through it.
    0:38:40 The open Internet is still open.
    0:38:47 So I think it’s a real shame that the DOJ has chosen to pursue Google in this way.
    0:39:00 I do think there are other things you can nail Google for, and there are ad monopoly, maybe, or the shenanigans they’ve done in controlling both sides of the ad ledger, that they both control the supply and the demand.
    0:39:01 There are problems.
    0:39:02 Chrome isn’t it.
    0:39:05 And you end up making the web much worse.
    0:39:15 And this is the thing we always got to remember when we think about legislation, when we think about monopoly fights, is you may not like how things look today.
    0:39:19 And you may want to do something about it, but you may also make it worse.
    0:39:26 The good intentions behind the GDPR in Europe currently has amounted to what?
    0:39:45 Cookie banners that everyone on the Internet hates, that helps no one do anything better, anything more efficient, that saves no privacy in any way, shape, or form, has been a complete boondoggle that has only enriched lawyers and accountants and bureaucrats.
    0:39:55 Yeah, you said that the cookie banner is a monument for why Europe is losing, is doing the worst of all the regions in tech.
    0:40:01 It’s a monument to good intentions leading straight to hell.
    0:40:08 And the Europe is actually world-class in good intentions leading straight to hell.
    0:40:13 So hell is the cookie accept button that you have to accept all cookies.
    0:40:14 That’s what hell looks like.
    0:40:18 Over and over, you don’t actually ever get to the web page.
    0:40:25 Just on a human scale, try to imagine how many hours every day are wasted clicking that away.
    0:40:32 And how much harm we’ve done to the web as a platform that people enjoy because of them.
    0:40:36 The Internet is ugly in part because of cookie banners.
    0:40:40 Cookie banners were supposed to save us from advertisement.
    0:40:42 And advertisement can make the web ugly.
    0:40:44 There’s plenty of examples of that.
    0:40:48 But cookie banners made the entire Internet ugly in one fell swoop.
    0:40:50 And that’s a complete tragedy.
    0:40:55 But what’s even worse, and this is why I call it out as a monument to everything the EU gets wrong,
    0:40:57 is that we have known this for a decade.
    0:41:03 No one anywhere who’s serious believes that cookie banners does anything good for anyone.
    0:41:05 Yet we’ve been unable to get rid of it.
    0:41:09 There’s this one piece of legislation that’s now, I think, 10 or 12 years old.
    0:41:13 It’s complete failure on every conceivable metric.
    0:41:16 Everyone hates it universally, yet we can’t seem to do anything about it.
    0:41:29 That’s a bankruptcy declaration for any body of bureaucrats who pretend or pretend to make things better for not just citizens, but people around the world.
    0:41:32 This is the thing that really gets me about cookie banners, too.
    0:41:34 It’s not just the EU.
    0:41:35 It’s the entire world.
    0:41:39 You can’t hide from cookie banners anywhere on this planet.
    0:41:46 If you go to goddamn Mars on one of Elon’s rockets and you try to access a web page, you’ll still see a cookie banner.
    0:41:49 No one in the universe is safe from this nonsense.
    0:41:52 Probably the interface on the rocket.
    0:41:52 It’ll be even slower.
    0:41:57 You’ll have basically 150-second ping time.
    0:42:01 So it’ll take you 45 seconds just to get through the cookie banners from Mars.
    0:42:07 All right, let’s walk back up the stack of this recursive tangents we’ve been taking.
    0:42:14 So Chrome, we should say, at least in my opinion, is not winning unfairly.
    0:42:18 It’s winning in the fair way by just being better.
    0:42:19 It is.
    0:42:31 If I was going to steel man the other side just for a half second, people would say, well, maybe, yes, most people do sort of begrudgingly agree that Chrome is a pretty good browser.
    0:42:34 But then they’ll say the reason it got dominance was distribution.
    0:42:43 And the reason it got distribution was because Google also controls Android and therefore can make Chrome the default browser on all these phones.
    0:42:45 Now, I don’t buy that.
    0:43:00 And the reason I don’t buy that is because on Android, you’re actually allowed to ship a different browser that has a browser engine that’s not the same as Chrome, unlike on iOS, where if you want to ship a browser, Chrome, for example, ships for iOS.
    0:43:00 But it’s not Chrome.
    0:43:03 It’s Safari wrapped in a dress.
    0:43:09 And every single alternative browser on iOS have to use the Safari web engine.
    0:43:10 That’s not competition.
    0:43:12 That’s not what happened on Android.
    0:43:15 Again, I think there are some nuances to it.
    0:43:21 But if you zoom out and you look at all the problems we have with big tech, Chrome is not it.
    0:43:22 Chrome won on merits.
    0:43:28 I begrudgingly have switched to Chrome on that realization alone.
    0:43:30 As a web developer, I just prefer it.
    0:43:32 I like Firefox in many ways.
    0:43:33 I like the ethos of it.
    0:43:36 But Chrome is a better browser than Firefox, full stop.
    0:43:39 And by the way, we’ve never mentioned Edge.
    0:43:40 Edge is also a good browser.
    0:43:43 Because it’s also Chrome in a dress.
    0:43:44 But it never gets the love.
    0:43:46 I don’t think I’ve ever used Bing.
    0:43:49 And I’m sure Bing is really nice.
    0:43:50 Maybe you have.
    0:43:52 Because you know what is Bing in a dress?
    0:43:52 What?
    0:43:53 DuckDuckGo.
    0:43:56 Which is actually the search engine that I use.
    0:43:59 DuckDuckGo gets its search results from Bing.
    0:44:00 Or at least it used to.
    0:44:02 If they changed that, that would be news to me.
    0:44:08 Well, maybe everything is just a wrap or a dress.
    0:44:09 Everything is wearing a dress.
    0:44:10 Underneath there’s some other.
    0:44:11 There’s some of that.
    0:44:11 It’s turtles.
    0:44:13 Dresses all the way down.
    0:44:13 Okay.
    0:44:14 What were we talking about?
    0:44:19 We got there from JavaScript and from you learning how to program.
    0:44:25 So eventually, the big success story is when you built a bunch of stuff with PHP.
    0:44:29 And you were like actually shipping things.
    0:44:30 Yes.
    0:44:33 And that’s when the Ruby story came.
    0:44:38 So your big love affair with programming began there.
    0:44:39 So can you take me there?
    0:44:40 What is Ruby?
    0:44:42 Tell the story of Ruby.
    0:44:43 Explain Ruby to me.
    0:44:54 PHP was what converted me from just being able to fondle HTML and turn out some web pages to actually being able to produce web applications myself.
    0:44:58 So I owe a tremendous gratitude to PHP in that regard.
    0:45:02 But I never thought of PHP as a calling.
    0:45:06 I never thought I’m a professional programmer who writes PHP.
    0:45:08 That’s who I am and that’s what I do.
    0:45:16 I thought of PHP as a tool I needed to smack the computer with until it produced web applications I wanted.
    0:45:18 It was very much a means to an end.
    0:45:21 I didn’t fall in love with PHP.
    0:45:26 I’m very grateful that it taught me the basics of programming.
    0:45:29 And I’m very grateful that it set the bar for the economics.
    0:45:35 But it really wasn’t until Ruby that I started thinking of myself as a programmer.
    0:45:47 And the way that came about was that the first time I ever got hired as a professional programmer to write code was actually by Jason Fried, my business partner still.
    0:45:55 All the way back in 2001, I had been working on these gaming websites in PHP for essentially 18 months at that point.
    0:45:58 No one had been paying me to do code in that regard.
    0:46:08 And I connect with Jason Fried over an email sent from Copenhagen, Denmark to Chicago, Illinois, to a person who didn’t know who I was.
    0:46:11 I was just offering solicited advice.
    0:46:15 Jason had asked a question on the Internet and I had sent him the answer and he was asking in PHP.
    0:46:18 And I’d send him the answer to that question.
    0:46:23 And we started talking and then we started working, which, by the way, is a miracle of what the Internet can allow.
    0:46:31 How can a kid in Copenhagen who’s never met this guy in Chicago connect just over email and start working together?
    0:46:35 And by the way, we’re still working together now, 24 years later.
    0:46:36 That’s incredible.
    0:46:40 But we started working together and we started working together on some client projects.
    0:46:42 Jason would do the design.
    0:46:43 37 Signals would do design.
    0:46:45 I would bring the programming PHP.
    0:46:53 And after we worked on, I think, two or three client projects together in PHP, we kept hitting the same problem.
    0:46:58 That whenever you work with a client, you start that project off an email.
    0:47:00 Oh, yeah, let’s work together.
    0:47:01 Here’s what we’re building.
    0:47:03 And you start trading more and more emails.
    0:47:08 And before a few weeks have passed, you’ve got to add someone to the project.
    0:47:10 They don’t have the emails.
    0:47:11 They don’t have the context.
    0:47:13 You send them, where’s the latest file?
    0:47:15 Oh, I’ve uploaded on the FTP.
    0:47:18 It’s like final, final V 06 2.0.
    0:47:19 Right.
    0:47:19 That’s the one to get.
    0:47:20 It’s just a mess.
    0:47:22 A beautiful mess in some ways.
    0:47:25 A mess that still runs the vast majority of projects to this day.
    0:47:27 Email is the lowest common denominator.
    0:47:29 That’s wonderful.
    0:47:33 But we had dropped the ball a couple of times in serious ways with customers.
    0:47:35 And we thought, we can do better.
    0:47:37 We know how to make web applications.
    0:47:42 Can’t we just make a system that’s better than email for managing projects?
    0:47:43 It can’t be that hard.
    0:47:45 We’ve been doing blogs.
    0:47:47 We’ve been doing to-do lists.
    0:47:54 Let’s put some of these things together and just make a system where everything that anyone involved in the project needs is on one page.
    0:48:00 And it has to be simple enough that I’m not going to run a seminar teaching you how to use the system.
    0:48:01 I’m just going to give you the login code.
    0:48:02 You’re going to jump into it.
    0:48:04 So that’s Basecamp.
    0:48:16 And when we started working on Basecamp, I, for the first time in the experience I had with Jason, had the freedom of technology choice.
    0:48:19 There was no client telling me, yeah, PHP, that sounds good.
    0:48:20 We know PHP.
    0:48:21 Can you build it in PHP?
    0:48:23 I had free reigns.
    0:48:43 And at that time, I’d been reading IEEE magazine and a couple of other magazines back from the early 2000s where Dave Thomas and Martin Fowler had been writing about programming patterns and how to write better code.
    0:48:52 And these two guys, in particular, were both using Ruby to explain their concepts because Ruby looked like pseudocode.
    0:48:59 Whether you were programming in C or Java or PHP, all three constituencies could understand Ruby because it basically just reads like English.
    0:49:04 So these guys were using Ruby to describe their concepts.
    0:49:08 And first of all, I would read these articles for just the concepts they were explaining.
    0:49:11 And I’d be like, what is this programming language?
    0:49:15 I mean, I like the concept you’re explaining, but I also want to see the programming language.
    0:49:17 Why haven’t I heard of this?
    0:49:19 So I started looking into Ruby.
    0:49:26 And I realized at that time, Ruby might not be known by anyone, but it’s actually been around for a long time.
    0:49:35 Matz, the Japanese creator of Ruby, had started working on Ruby back in 93, before the Internet was even a thing.
    0:49:47 And here I am in 2003, 10 years later, picking up what seems like this hidden gem that’s just laying in obscurity in plain sight.
    0:50:02 But Dave Thomas and Martin Fowler, I think, successfully put me and a handful of other people on the trail of a programming language that hadn’t been used much in the West, but could be.
    0:50:07 So I picked up Ruby, and I thought, this is very different.
    0:50:10 First of all, where are all the semicolons?
    0:50:14 I’d been programming in PHP, in ASP.
    0:50:16 I’d even done some Pascal.
    0:50:17 I’d looked at some C.
    0:50:19 There are semicolons everywhere.
    0:50:23 And that was the first thing that struck me is, where are the damn semicolons?
    0:50:28 And I started thinking, actually, why do we have semicolons in programming?
    0:50:35 They’re to tell the interpreter that there’s a new line of instructions, but I don’t need him as a human.
    0:50:36 How?
    0:50:41 Oh, someone is looking out for the human here, not for the machine.
    0:50:43 So that really got me interested.
    0:50:46 And then I thought to myself, do you know what?
    0:50:48 I know PHP quite well.
    0:50:50 I’m not an amazing programmer.
    0:50:53 I haven’t been working in programming for all that long.
    0:50:56 But maybe I can figure it out.
    0:50:58 I’m going to give myself two weeks.
    0:51:02 I’m going to write a proof of concept where I talk to a database.
    0:51:07 I pull some records, I format them a bit, and I display them on an HTML page.
    0:51:09 Can I figure that out in a couple of weeks?
    0:51:14 It took about one weekend, and I was completely mesmerized.
    0:51:27 I was completely mind-blown because Ruby was made for my brain like a perfect tailored glove by someone I’d never met.
    0:51:30 Like, how is this even possible?
    0:51:36 We should say maybe, like, paint a picture of the certain qualities that Ruby has, maybe even compared to PHP.
    0:51:43 We should also say that there’s a ridiculous thing that I’m used to that I forget about, that there’s dollar signs everywhere.
    0:51:46 Yes, there’s line noise.
    0:51:47 That’s what I like to call it.
    0:51:48 Line noise.
    0:51:49 Line noise.
    0:51:50 That’s such a beautiful phrase.
    0:51:54 Yeah, so there’s all these things that look like programs.
    0:51:58 And with Ruby, I mean, there’s some similarities in Python there.
    0:52:01 It just looks kind of like natural language.
    0:52:02 You can read it normally.
    0:52:05 Here’s a while loop that does five iterations.
    0:52:10 You can literally type the number five dot.
    0:52:13 Now, I’m calling a method under number five, by the way.
    0:52:15 That’s one of the beautiful aspects of Ruby.
    0:52:19 That primitives, like integers, are also objects.
    0:52:25 And you can call five dot times start brackets.
    0:52:29 Now you’re iterating over the code in that bracket five times.
    0:52:30 That’s it.
    0:52:31 Okay, that’s nice.
    0:52:33 That’s not just nice.
    0:52:34 That’s exceptional.
    0:52:48 There’s literally no other programming language that I know of that has managed to boil away the line noise that almost every other programming language would inject into a five-time iteration over a block of code to that extent.
    0:52:49 That’s a really nice.
    0:52:50 Thank you for giving that example.
    0:52:52 That’s a beautiful example.
    0:52:53 Wow.
    0:52:56 I don’t think I know a programming language that does that.
    0:52:56 That’s really nice.
    0:52:57 Ruby is full of that.
    0:52:59 And there’s…
    0:53:00 So let me dive into a couple of examples.
    0:53:02 Because I really think it helps paint the picture.
    0:53:07 And let me preface this by saying, I actually, I like the ethos of Python.
    0:53:11 I think the Ruby and the Python community share a lot of similarities.
    0:53:14 They’re both dynamic, interpreted languages.
    0:53:21 They’re both focused on immediacy and productivity and ease of use in a bunch of ways.
    0:53:23 But then they’re also very different in many other ways.
    0:53:26 And one of the ways they’re very different is aesthetically.
    0:53:31 Python, to me, I hope I don’t offend people too much.
    0:53:31 I’ve said this before.
    0:53:33 It’s just, it’s ugly.
    0:53:47 And it’s ugly in its base because it’s full of superfluous instructions that are necessary for legacy reasons of when Guido made Python back in 87.
    0:53:52 that are still here in 2025 and my brain can’t cope with that.
    0:53:53 Let me give you a basic example.
    0:54:00 When you make a class in Python, the initializer method, the starting method, is def.
    0:54:00 Okay, fair enough.
    0:54:01 That’s actually the same as Ruby.
    0:54:03 D-E-F, definition of a method.
    0:54:06 Then it is underscore.
    0:54:08 Not one.
    0:54:09 Underscore.
    0:54:10 Two.
    0:54:11 In it.
    0:54:13 Underscore, underscore.
    0:54:16 Parenthesis start.
    0:54:19 Self, comma, and then the first argument.
    0:54:20 Yeah, the whole self thing.
    0:54:20 Yeah.
    0:54:24 I look at that and go, I’m sorry, I’m out.
    0:54:24 I can’t do it.
    0:54:30 It’s just, it’s everything about it offends my sensibilities to the core.
    0:54:36 Here you have the most important method that all new objects or classes have to implement.
    0:54:42 And it is one of the most aesthetically offensive ways of typing initialize that I’ve ever seen anywhere.
    0:54:44 And you guys are okay with this?
    0:54:46 Yeah, you’re making me, you know what?
    0:54:49 You’re like talking about my marriage or something like this.
    0:54:52 And I’m not realizing I’ve been in a toxic relationship all along.
    0:54:54 Yeah, I just get used to it.
    0:54:57 That to me, by the way, was the magic of Ruby.
    0:55:01 It opened my eyes to how beautiful programs could be.
    0:55:02 I didn’t know.
    0:55:04 I’ve been working in PHP.
    0:55:05 I’ve been working in PHP.
    0:55:12 I didn’t even have the concept that aesthetics, beautiful code, was something we could optimize for.
    0:55:13 That’s something we could pursue.
    0:55:18 And even more than that, that we could pursue it above other objectives.
    0:55:23 That Ruby is as beautiful as it is, it’s not an accident and it’s not easy.
    0:55:26 Ruby itself is implemented in C.
    0:55:32 It’s very difficult to parse Ruby code because Ruby is written for humans.
    0:55:34 And humans are messy creatures.
    0:55:37 They like things in just the right way.
    0:55:44 I can’t fully explain why the underscore, underscore, init, underscore, underscore make me repulse.
    0:55:45 But it does.
    0:55:49 And when I look at the Ruby alternative, it’s really instructive.
    0:55:56 So it’s def, same part, def, space, initialize, parentheses.
    0:55:57 Not even parentheses.
    0:56:00 If you don’t need to call it within the arguments, there’s not even a parentheses.
    0:56:01 That in itself is actually also a major part.
    0:56:09 If the human doesn’t need the additional characters, we’re not just going to put them in because it’d be nicer to parse for the computer.
    0:56:11 We’re going to get rid of the semicolons.
    0:56:12 We’re going to get rid of the parentheses.
    0:56:16 We’re going to get rid of the underscores.
    0:56:21 We’re going to get rid of all that ugliness, all the line noise, and boil it down to its pure essentials.
    0:56:24 And at the same time, we’re not going to abbreviate.
    0:56:29 This is a key difference in the aesthetics between Ruby and Python as well.
    0:56:31 Init is short of the type.
    0:56:32 It’s only five characters.
    0:56:36 Initialize is a lot longer, but it looks a lot better.
    0:56:38 And you don’t type it very often.
    0:56:40 So you should look at something pretty.
    0:56:43 If you don’t have to do it all the time, it’s okay that it’s long.
    0:56:50 Those kinds of aesthetic evaluations are rife all over the Ruby language.
    0:56:51 But let me give you an even better example.
    0:56:54 The if conditional.
    0:56:57 That’s the bedrug of all programming languages.
    0:56:59 They have the if conditional.
    0:57:02 If you take most programming languages, they all have if.
    0:57:04 That’s basically the same in almost every language.
    0:57:05 Space.
    0:57:06 Start parentheses.
    0:57:07 We all did that.
    0:57:15 And then you have perhaps, let’s say, you’re calling an object called user.
    0:57:25 is admin, close parentheses, close parentheses, start brackets, and here’s what we’re going
    0:57:27 to do if the user’s an admin, right?
    0:57:28 That would be a normal programming language.
    0:57:30 Ruby doesn’t do it like that.
    0:57:32 Ruby boils almost all of it away.
    0:57:33 We start with the if.
    0:57:34 Okay, that’s the same.
    0:57:41 No parentheses necessary because there’s no ambiguity for the human to distinguish that the next part
    0:57:43 is just a single statement.
    0:57:51 So you do if space user dot admin question mark.
    0:57:53 Yeah.
    0:57:58 No open brackets, no parentheses, no nothing.
    0:58:00 Next open line.
    0:58:00 Here’s your conditional.
    0:58:08 That question mark means nothing to the computer, but it means something to the human.
    0:58:17 Ruby put in the predicate method style purely as a communication tool between humans.
    0:58:23 It’s actually more work for the interpreter to be able to see that this question mark is there.
    0:58:25 Why is this question mark in here?
    0:58:28 Because it just reads so nicely.
    0:58:31 If user admin question mark.
    0:58:34 That’s a very human phrase, but it gets better.
    0:58:37 You can turn this around.
    0:58:42 You can have your statement you want to execute before the conditional.
    0:58:46 You can do user dot upgrade.
    0:58:53 Let’s say you’re calling an upgrade method on a user space if space user dot admin question mark.
    0:58:56 We do the thing if the thing is true.
    0:58:59 Instead of saying if the thing is true, do the thing.
    0:59:00 But it gets even better.
    0:59:04 This is why I love this example with the conditional because you can keep diving into it.
    0:59:06 So let’s flip it around.
    0:59:15 User dot downgrade if exclamation point not user dot admin, right?
    0:59:17 That’d be a typical way of writing it.
    0:59:21 Ruby goes, that exclamation point is light and noise.
    0:59:24 Why do we have if and then an exclamation point?
    0:59:24 That’s ugly.
    0:59:32 We could do user dot downgrade unless user admin question mark.
    0:59:46 That to me is an encapsulation of the incredible beauty that Ruby affords the programmer through ambiguity that is only to serve the human reader and writer.
    0:59:50 All of these statements we’ve just discussed, they’re the same for the computer.
    0:59:52 It’ll compile down to the same C code.
    0:59:55 They’ll compile down to the same assembly code.
    0:59:56 It makes no difference whatsoever.
    0:59:59 In fact, it just makes it harder to write an interpreter.
    1:00:08 But for the human who gets to choose whether the statement comes before the conditional or the predicate method has, it’s just incredible.
    1:00:10 It reads like poetry at some point.
    1:00:14 It’s also incredible that, you know, one language designer is creating that.
    1:00:17 You know, Guido van Rossum also.
    1:00:25 It’s like one person gets to make these extremely difficult decisions because it’s, you have to think about how does that all get parsed.
    1:00:38 And you have to think about the thousands, if it’s a popular language, that millions of people that end up using this and what they feel with that question mark on the, for the if statement, what does that feel like?
    1:00:49 And that’s what Matt’s thought about because he started his entire mission off a different premise than almost every programming language designer that I’d heard at least articulate their vision.
    1:01:09 That his number one goal was the affordances that would allow programmers to articulate code in ways that not just executed correctly, but were a joy to write and were a joy to read.
    1:01:16 And that vision is based on a fundamentally different view of humanity.
    1:01:22 There’s no greater contrast between Matt’s and James Gosselin, the designer of Java.
    1:01:26 I wanted to listen to James talk about the design of Java.
    1:01:28 Why was it the way it was?
    1:01:30 Why was it so rigid?
    1:01:33 And he was very blunt about it, which, by the way, I really appreciate.
    1:01:39 And I think Gosselin’s done a tremendous job with Java, but his view of humanity is rather dark.
    1:01:45 His view of humanity was programmers, at the average, are stupid creatures.
    1:01:55 They cannot be trusted with sophisticated programming languages because they’re going to shoot their foot off or their hand off.
    1:02:07 And that would be kind of inconvenient to the regional development office of a mid-tier insurance company writing code that has to last for 20 years.
    1:02:16 Now, it’s actually a very Thomas Sowell view of constrained capacity in humans that I’ve come to appreciate much later in life.
    1:02:26 But it’s also a very depressing view of programmers that there are just certain programmers who are too dumb to appreciate code poetry.
    1:02:29 They’re too ignorant to learn how to write it well.
    1:02:34 We need to give them a sandbox where they just won’t hurt themselves too much.
    1:02:38 Matt’s went the complete opposite direction.
    1:02:40 He believes in humanity.
    1:02:46 He believes in the unlimited capacity of programmers to learn and become better.
    1:02:53 So much so that he’s willing to put the stranger at his own level.
    1:02:57 This is the second part I truly appreciate about Ruby.
    1:03:01 Ruby allows you to extend base classes.
    1:03:08 You know how we just talked about five dot times is a way to iterate over a statement five times?
    1:03:11 That five is obviously a base class.
    1:03:12 It’s a number.
    1:03:13 Do you know what?
    1:03:16 You can add your own methods to that.
    1:03:18 I did extensively.
    1:03:26 In Rails, we have something called active support, which is essentially my dialect of Ruby for programming web applications.
    1:03:28 And I’ll give you one example.
    1:03:33 I’ve added a method called days to the number.
    1:03:43 So if you do five dot days, you get five days in seconds because seconds is the way we set cash expiration times and other things like that.
    1:03:56 So you can say cash expires in five dot days and you’re going to get whatever five times 24 times 60 times 60 is or whatever the math is.
    1:04:00 Very humanly readable in a normal programming language.
    1:04:07 You would type out the seconds and then you would have a little comment above it saying this represent five days in Ruby.
    1:04:09 You get to write five days.
    1:04:11 But even better than that, Matt’s didn’t come up with it.
    1:04:14 Matt’s didn’t need the five days.
    1:04:16 I needed that because I needed to expire caches.
    1:04:32 I was allowed by Matt’s to extend his story with my own chapters on equal footing such that a reader of Ruby could not tell the difference between the code Matt’s wrote and the code that I wrote.
    1:04:40 He trusted me as a complete stranger from Denmark who had never met to mess with his beautiful story.
    1:04:43 That level of trust is essentially unheard of.
    1:04:50 I know there are other program languages that allow things with macros and so forth, but none do it in a way like Ruby does it.
    1:04:57 None does it with an articulated vision of humanity, a trust in humanity like Matt’s does.
    1:05:01 That is the opposite end of the spectrum of Java.
    1:05:02 Yeah.
    1:05:09 I mean, for my aesthetic sensibilities, just the way you described five dot days, that’s really pleasant to me.
    1:05:16 Like I could see myself sitting alone, sleep deprived and just writing that.
    1:05:17 It’s just an easy thing.
    1:05:19 You can write it in a long way with a comment.
    1:05:21 You can, you can write in multiple lines.
    1:05:27 You could do, and now with AI, I’m sure it’s going to generate it correctly, but there’s something really pleasant about the simplicity of that.
    1:05:29 I’m not sure what that is, but you’re right.
    1:05:31 There is a good feeling there.
    1:05:41 And I’m sure we’ll talk about happiness from all kinds of philosophical angles, but, you know, that is what happiness is made of.
    1:05:44 That little good feeling there.
    1:05:50 It’s the good feeling that come out of a concept compressed to its pure essence.
    1:05:54 There’s nothing you can take away from that statement that’s superfluous.
    1:06:03 But see, I also want to push back a little bit because it’s not, because I also programmed in Pearl a bunch, just to be cool.
    1:06:06 So like, it’s not all about compression.
    1:06:08 No, you can compress it too far.
    1:06:09 Right.
    1:06:15 Pearl Golf is a thing where you can turn programs into something that’s unreadable for humans.
    1:06:18 Now, the great thing about Pearl was that it came out before Ruby.
    1:06:28 Matz was a great student of Wall, was a great student of Pearl, was a great student of Python and Smalltalk and Lisp.
    1:06:37 He took inspiration from all of these prior attempts at creating good programming languages and really edited down the very best bits into this.
    1:06:40 So he was able to learn from his lessons.
    1:06:48 But what I found incredible about Ruby is that here we are, 2025, Ruby has been worked on for over 30 years.
    1:06:53 And essentially, the first draft is 90% of what we’re still using.
    1:07:01 There was almost a sense of divine inspiration possible in wherever Matz was writing that initial version of Ruby.
    1:07:07 That transcended time to such a degree that no one has still even begun to reach it.
    1:07:08 This is the other thing I always find fascinating.
    1:07:22 I generally believe in the efficient market theory, that if someone comes up with a better mousetrap or better idea, others will eventually copy them to such an extent that perhaps the original mousetrap is no longer even remembered.
    1:07:25 No one has been able to copy that essence of Ruby.
    1:07:28 They borrowed elements, and that’s totally fine.
    1:07:36 But Ruby still stands taller than everyone else on these metrics, on this trust in humanity and programmers.
    1:07:42 And we should also say, like, you know, maybe the perfect programming language is that metric.
    1:07:46 And then there’s the successful language, and those are often different.
    1:07:49 There is something wonderful about the Brendan Eich story of creating JavaScript.
    1:07:50 Yes.
    1:07:58 There’s something truly beautiful about the way JavaScript took over the world.
    1:08:05 I’ve recently got to visit the Amazon jungle, and just one of my favorite things to do is just to watch the ants take over anything, everything.
    1:08:08 And it’s just like, it’s a nice distributed system.
    1:08:12 It’s a messy thing that doesn’t seem to be order, but it just works.
    1:08:14 And the machinery of it.
    1:08:15 Worse is better.
    1:08:21 I mean, that’s actually the name of a pattern in software development and other ways of how do,
    1:08:22 is the pattern of Linux.
    1:08:27 Linux was quantifiably worse than, I think it was Minix at the time.
    1:08:34 Other ways of it that were more cathedral, less bizarre, and it’s still one.
    1:08:39 That there’s something to it that the imperfections can help something go forward.
    1:08:45 It’s actually a trick I’ve studied to the degree that I now incorporate it in almost all open source that I do.
    1:08:51 I make sure that when I release the first version of any new thing I work on, it’s a little broken.
    1:08:56 It’s a little busted in ways that invite people to come in and help me.
    1:09:04 Because there’s no easier way to get the collaboration of other programmers than to put something out that they know how to fix and improve.
    1:09:05 Yeah, that’s awesome.
    1:09:09 But Ruby is somehow, or was at least, a little bit different in that regard.
    1:09:10 Not in all regards.
    1:09:18 Matt’s got the ethos of the language, the design of language just right, but the first versions of Ruby were terribly slow.
    1:09:30 It’s taken, I mean, hundreds of man years to get Ruby to be both this beautiful, yet also highly efficient and really fast.
    1:09:36 And we should say that the thing that made you fall in love with this particular programming language is metaprogramming.
    1:09:37 Yes.
    1:09:42 So that takes all of these elements we’ve just talked about and turned them up to 11.
    1:09:44 I’ll explain metaprogramming real simple.
    1:09:49 Metaprogramming is essentially a version of the five dot days.
    1:09:53 You get to add keywords to the language.
    1:09:57 Active record is the part of Rails that communicates with the database.
    1:10:05 This is a system where every table in the database is represented by a class.
    1:10:12 So if we take the user example again, you do class user descends from active record base.
    1:10:15 And then the first line you can write is this.
    1:10:19 I want my users to have many posts or have many comments.
    1:10:20 Let’s do that.
    1:10:22 We’re making some system where users can make comments.
    1:10:43 Now you’ve set up a dependency between users and comments that will give you a whole host of access and factory methods for users to be able to own comments, to create comments, to update comments.
    1:11:04 When Rails is able to add these elements to how you define a class and then that runs code that adds a bunch of methods to the user class, that’s metaprogramming.
    1:11:09 And when metaprogramming is used in this way, we call it domain-specific languages.
    1:11:20 You take a generic language like Ruby and you tailor it to a certain domain like describing relationships in a database at a object level.
    1:11:31 And this is one of those early examples where you can do user has many comments, belongs, underscore to, space, colon, account.
    1:11:36 Now you’ve set up a one-to-one relationship before we had a one-to-many relationship.
    1:11:44 Rails is rife with all these kinds of domain-specific languages where at some times it doesn’t even look like Ruby.
    1:11:53 You can’t identify Ruby keywords, you can just identify what looks like keywords in its own programming language.
    1:11:57 Now, again, I know that Lisp and others also do this stuff.
    1:12:04 They just do it with the maximum amount of line noise that can ever be crammed into a programming language.
    1:12:11 And Ruby does it at a level where you cannot tell my metaprogramming from Matt’s keywords and with zero line noise.
    1:12:17 Yeah, I should say that my first love was Lisp, so there’s a slow tear that you can’t see.
    1:12:20 I’ve actually never written any real Lisp myself.
    1:12:22 Well, how can you judge it so harshly then?
    1:12:30 Because I have two eyes and I can look at code and my aesthetic sensibilities forbid me to even go much further, which is a limitation, I know.
    1:12:40 I should actually dive into Lisp because I found that I’ve learned a lot just diving into, maybe I’m insulting Lisp again here, but the past of programming languages.
    1:12:51 With Smalltalk, for example, I think Smalltalk is an incredible experiment that also worked, but isn’t suitable for today’s programming environments.
    1:12:57 I love that we’re talking about Ruby so much and what beautiful code is, what a beautiful programming language is.
    1:13:07 So one of the things that is, I think, implied, maybe you made explicit in your descriptions there is that Ruby is dynamic typing versus strict typing.
    1:13:16 And you have been not just saying that it’s a nice thing, but that you will defend dynamic typing to the death.
    1:13:19 Like that freedom is a powerful freedom to preserve.
    1:13:22 It’s the essence of what makes Ruby Ruby.
    1:13:31 This is why I don’t fully understand when people call for Ruby to add static typing, because to me, it’s the bedrock of what this is.
    1:13:37 Why would you want to turn one of the most beautiful languages into something far uglier?
    1:13:41 This is one of my primary objections to static typing.
    1:13:44 It’s not just that it limits you in certain ways.
    1:13:45 It makes metaprogramming harder.
    1:13:48 I write a bunch of metaprogramming.
    1:13:50 I’ve seen what it takes to do metaprogramming in TypeScript.
    1:13:57 That was actually one of the things that just really sent me on a tear of getting meta or getting TypeScript out of some of the projects that I’m involved with.
    1:14:08 We pulled TypeScript out of Turbo, one of the front-end frameworks that we have, because I tried to write to metaprogramming in TypeScript and I was just infuriated.
    1:14:10 I don’t want that experience.
    1:14:13 But I also don’t want it from an aesthetic point of view.
    1:14:14 I hate repetition.
    1:14:21 We’ve just talked about how much I love that Ruby boils all of these expressions down to its essence.
    1:14:23 You can’t remove one dot.
    1:14:27 You can’t remove one character without losing something.
    1:14:30 This moment you go for static typing that you declare, at least.
    1:14:37 I know there are ways to do implied typing and so forth, but let’s just take the stereotypical case of the Java example, for example.
    1:14:43 Capital U, user, I’m declaring the type of the variable.
    1:14:50 Lowercase user, I’m now naming my variable, equals uppercase user or new uppercase user.
    1:14:52 I’ve repeated user three times.
    1:14:55 I don’t have time for this.
    1:14:58 I don’t have sensibilities for this.
    1:15:01 I don’t want my Ruby polluted with this.
    1:15:05 Now, I understand all the arguments for why people like static typing.
    1:15:09 One of the primary arguments is that it makes tooling easier.
    1:15:12 It makes it easier to do autocomplete in editors, for example.
    1:15:24 It makes it easier to find certain kinds of bugs because maybe you’re calling methods that don’t exist on an object and the editor can actually catch that bug before you even run it.
    1:15:26 I don’t care.
    1:15:30 First of all, I don’t write code with tools.
    1:15:32 I write them with text editors.
    1:15:37 I chisel them out of the screen with my bare hands.
    1:15:38 I don’t autocomplete.
    1:15:40 And this is why I love Ruby so much.
    1:15:46 And this is why I continue to be in love with the text editor rather than the IDE.
    1:15:48 I don’t want an IDE.
    1:15:59 I want my fingers to have to individually type out every element of it because it will force me to stay in the world where Ruby is beautiful.
    1:16:03 Because as soon as it gets easy to type a lot of boilerplate, well, guess what?
    1:16:04 You’re going to have a lot of boilerplate.
    1:16:15 Every single language, basically, that has great tooling support has a much higher tolerance for boilerplate because the thinking is, well, you’re not typing it anyway.
    1:16:16 You’re just autocompleting it.
    1:16:17 I don’t want that at all.
    1:16:24 I want something where the fabric I’m working in is just a text file.
    1:16:25 There’s nothing else to it.
    1:16:27 So these things play together.
    1:16:29 There’s the aesthetic part.
    1:16:30 There’s the tooling part.
    1:16:32 There’s the metaprogramming part.
    1:16:38 There’s the fact that Ruby’s ethos of duck typing, I don’t know if you’ve heard that term before.
    1:16:46 It’s essentially not about, can I call this method if a object is of a certain class?
    1:16:49 It is, can I call this method if the method responds?
    1:16:52 It’s very out of small talk in that regard.
    1:17:06 You don’t actually check of whether that class has the method, which allows you to dynamically add methods at runtime and do all sorts of really interesting things that underpin all the beautiful metaprogramming that we do in Ruby.
    1:17:08 I don’t want to lose any of that.
    1:17:10 And I don’t care for the benefits.
    1:17:16 One of the benefits I’ve seen touted over and over again is that it’s much easier to write correct software.
    1:17:18 You’re going to have fewer bugs.
    1:17:21 You’re going to have less null pointer exceptions.
    1:17:23 You’re going to have less all this stuff.
    1:17:24 Yeah, I don’t have any of that.
    1:17:28 It’s just not something that occurs in my standard mode of operation.
    1:17:30 I’m not saying I don’t have bugs.
    1:17:30 Of course I do.
    1:17:35 But I catch those bugs with unit testing, with integration testing.
    1:17:46 Those are the kinds of precautions that will catch logical bugs, things that compile but are wrong, along with the uncompileable stuff.
    1:17:49 So I’ve never been drawn into this world.
    1:17:52 And part of it is because I work on a certain class of systems.
    1:17:53 I fully accept that.
    1:18:05 If you’re writing systems that have 5, 10, 50 million lines of code with hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands of programmers, I fully accept that you need different methods.
    1:18:19 What I object to is the idea that what’s right for a code base of 10 million lines of code with 100,000 programmers working on it is also the same thing I should be using in my bedroom to create Basecamp because I’m just a single individual.
    1:18:20 That’s complete nonsense.
    1:18:29 In the real world, we would know that that makes no sense at all, that you don’t, I don’t know, use your Pagani to go pick up groceries at Costco.
    1:18:32 It’s a bad vehicle for that.
    1:18:33 It just doesn’t have the space.
    1:18:35 You don’t want to muddy the beautiful seats.
    1:18:36 You don’t want to do any of those things.
    1:18:42 We know that certain things that are very good in certain domains don’t apply to all.
    1:18:44 In programming languages, it seems like we forget that.
    1:18:48 Now, to be fair, I also had a little bit perhaps of a reputation of forgetting that.
    1:19:00 When I first learned Ruby, I was so head over heels in love with this programming language that I almost found it unconceivable that anyone would choose any other programming language at all to write web applications.
    1:19:09 And I kind of engaged the evangelism of Ruby on Rails in that spirit as a crusade, as I just need to teach you the gospel.
    1:19:17 I just need to show you this conditional code that we just talked about, and you will convert at the point of a sharp argument.
    1:19:19 Now, I learned that that’s not the way.
    1:19:22 And part of the reason it’s not the way is that programmers think differently.
    1:19:25 Our brains are configured differently.
    1:19:37 My brain is configured perfectly for Ruby, perfectly for a dynamically duct-typed language that I can chisel code out of a text editor with.
    1:19:42 And other people need the security of an IDE.
    1:19:48 They want the security of classes that won’t compile unless you call the methods on it.
    1:19:50 I have come to accept that.
    1:19:52 But most programmers don’t.
    1:19:55 They’re still stuck in, essentially, I like static typing.
    1:20:01 Therefore, static typing is the only way to create reliable, correct systems.
    1:20:10 Which is just such a mind-blowing, to be blunt, idiotic thing to say in the face of evidence, mountains of evidence to the contrary.
    1:20:18 This is one of the reasons I’m so in love with Shopify as the flagship application for Ruby on Rails.
    1:20:25 Shopify exists at a scale that most programmers will never touch.
    1:20:30 On Black Friday, I think Shopify did one million requests per second.
    1:20:33 That’s not one million requests of images.
    1:20:38 That’s of dynamic requests that are funneling through the pipeline of commerce.
    1:20:44 I mean, Shopify runs something like 30% of all e-commerce stores on the damn internet.
    1:20:49 A huge portion of all commerce in total runs through Shopify.
    1:20:51 And that runs on Ruby on Rails.
    1:21:01 So, Ruby on Rails is able to scale up to that level without using static typing in all of what it does.
    1:21:06 Now, I know they’ve done certain experiments in certain ways because they are hitting some of the limits that you will hit with dynamic typing.
    1:21:14 And some of those limits you hit with dynamic typing are actually, by the way, just limits you hit when you write five million lines of code.
    1:21:17 I think the Shopify monolith is about five million lines of code.
    1:21:25 At that scale, everything breaks because you’re at the frontier of what humans are capable of doing with programming languages.
    1:21:35 The difference in part is that Ruby is such a succinct language that those five million, if they’d been written in, let’s just say, Go or Java, would have been 50 or 25.
    1:21:47 Now, that might have alleviated some of the problems that you have when you work on huge systems with many programmers, but it certainly would also have compounded them, trying to understand 25 million lines of code.
    1:21:50 So, the thing does scale.
    1:21:52 That’s a persistent myth that it doesn’t scale.
    1:21:57 Shopify and others, but Shopify, I think, is a great example.
    1:22:00 By the way, I love Shopify, and I love Toby.
    1:22:02 You got to have Toby on.
    1:22:02 Yeah, for sure.
    1:22:03 Let’s talk to him this morning.
    1:22:03 For sure.
    1:22:06 He’s a brilliant – I got to hang out with him in the desert somewhere.
    1:22:07 I forget, in Utah.
    1:22:09 He’s just a brilliant human.
    1:22:15 And Shopify – shopify.com slash Lux has been supporting this podcast for the longest time.
    1:22:19 I don’t think actually Toby knows that they sponsor this podcast.
    1:22:21 I mean, it’s a big company, right?
    1:22:22 It’s a huge company.
    1:22:32 I think just under 10,000 employees, market cap of $120 billion, GMV of a quarter of a trillion every quarter.
    1:22:33 And he’s involved with the details still.
    1:22:35 He is, very much so.
    1:22:36 Funny story about Toby.
    1:22:42 Toby was on the Rails core team back in the mid-2000s.
    1:22:48 Toby himself wrote Active Merchant, which is one of the frameworks for creating shops.
    1:22:52 He wrote the liquid templating language that Shopify still uses to this day.
    1:22:59 He has a huge list of contributions to the Rails ecosystem, and he’s the CEO of the company.
    1:23:05 I think it’s just – it’s very inspiring to me because it’s such at the opposite end of what I like to do.
    1:23:09 I like to chisel code with my own hands most of the day.
    1:23:17 He runs a company of almost 10,000 people that is literally like world commerce depends on it.
    1:23:21 A level of criticality I can’t even begin to understand.
    1:23:27 And yet we can see eye to eye on so many of these fundamental questions in computer science and program development.
    1:23:31 That is a dynamic range.
    1:23:39 To be able to encompass Rails being a great tool for the one developer who’s just starting out with an idea,
    1:23:45 who don’t even fully know everything, who is right at the level where PHP would have been a good fit in those late 90s,
    1:23:48 because, yeah, I can probably upload something to an FTP server and so on.
    1:23:53 Rails does have more complexity than that, but it also has so much longer runway.
    1:23:55 The runway goes all the way to goddamn Shopify.
    1:24:02 That is about the most convincing argument I can make for sort of dynamic range that we can do a lot of it.
    1:24:06 And even having said that, Shopify is the outlier, of course.
    1:24:11 I don’t think about Shopify as the primary target when I write Rails.
    1:24:13 I think of the single developer.
    1:24:14 Actually, I do think about Shopify.
    1:24:16 But I don’t think about Shopify now.
    1:24:19 I think of Shopify when Toby was writing Snow Devil,
    1:24:25 which was the first e-commerce store to sell snowboards that he created that was the pre-Shopify Shopify.
    1:24:27 He created it all by himself.
    1:24:33 And that was possible because Ruby on Rails isn’t just about beautiful code.
    1:24:35 It’s just as much about productivity.
    1:24:39 It’s just as much about the impact that an individual programmer is able to have.
    1:24:42 That they can build a system where they can keep the whole thing in their head
    1:24:49 and be able to move it forward such that you can go from one developer sitting and working on something
    1:24:52 and that something is Shopify and turns into what it is today.
    1:24:58 When we talk about programming languages and we compare them, we often compare them at a very late stage.
    1:25:05 Like what is the better programming language for, let’s say, Twitter in 2009 when it’s already a huge success?
    1:25:07 Twitter was started on Ruby on Rails.
    1:25:09 They then hit some scaling problems.
    1:25:11 It was a big debacle at the time.
    1:25:19 They end up then, I think, writing it in some other language, which, by the way, I think is the best advertisement ever for Ruby on Rails
    1:25:23 because nothing fucking happened for 10 years after they switched over, right?
    1:25:25 Essentially zero innovation.
    1:25:29 Some of that was because they were doing a long conversion.
    1:25:36 And all of the early success in part came because they had the agility to quickly change and adopt and so forth.
    1:25:37 That’s what startups need.
    1:25:38 That’s what Shopify needed.
    1:25:40 That’s what Twitter needed.
    1:25:41 That’s what everyone needs.
    1:25:46 And that’s the number one priority for Ruby on Rails, to make sure that we don’t lose that.
    1:25:54 Because what happens so often when development tools and programming language are driven by huge companies is that they mirror their org chart.
    1:26:03 React and everything else needed to use that is in some ways a reflection of how Meta builds Facebook.
    1:26:04 Because of course it is.
    1:26:06 Because of course it’s an instruction of that.
    1:26:09 I’m not saying React isn’t a great tool and that can’t be used by smaller teams.
    1:26:10 Of course it can.
    1:26:14 But it’s born in a very different context than something like Ruby on Rails.
    1:26:20 Let me say as a small aside because I think we might return to Shopify and celebrate it often.
    1:26:23 Just a sort of personal note.
    1:26:31 This particular podcast has way more sponsors and sponsors that want to be sponsors than I could possibly ever have.
    1:26:36 And it’s really, really important for me to not give a shit.
    1:26:39 And to be able to celebrate people.
    1:26:40 Like I celebrate people.
    1:26:42 I celebrate companies.
    1:26:45 And I don’t care that they’re sponsoring.
    1:26:46 I really don’t care.
    1:26:49 I just want to make that very explicit.
    1:26:52 Because we’re going to continue saying positive things about Shopify.
    1:26:53 I don’t care.
    1:26:54 Stop sponsoring.
    1:26:56 It doesn’t really matter to me.
    1:26:58 But yeah, I just want to make that explicit.
    1:27:01 But to linger on the scaling thing with the Twitter and the Shopify.
    1:27:07 Can you just explain to me what Shopify is doing with the JIT?
    1:27:12 What did they have to try to do to scale this thing?
    1:27:14 Because that’s kind of an incredible story, right?
    1:27:15 Yeah.
    1:27:23 So one of the great contributions that Shopify has made to the entire Ruby ecosystem, not just Rails, but in particular Rails, is YJIT.
    1:27:28 So YJIT is their compiler for Ruby that just makes everything a lot more efficient.
    1:27:38 And at Shopify scale, eking out even a 5-10% improvement in Ruby’s overhead and execution time is a huge deal.
    1:27:42 Now, Shopify didn’t need YJIT.
    1:27:50 Shopify was already running on the initial version of Ruby that was, I think, 10 times slower than what we have today.
    1:27:57 If you look back upon the Ruby 1.8.6 that Topi probably started on, just as I started on.
    1:28:01 And that was enough to propel Shopify to the scale that it has today.
    1:28:08 A lot of the scaling conversation is lost in a failure to distinguish two things.
    1:28:15 Scale is kind of one package we talk about when there are really multiple packages inside of it.
    1:28:18 One is runtime performance, latency.
    1:28:21 How fast can you execute a single request?
    1:28:24 Can it happen fast enough that the user will not notice?
    1:28:29 If your Rails request takes a second and a half to execute, the user’s going to notice.
    1:28:31 Your app is going to feel slow and sluggish.
    1:28:37 You have to get that response time down below, let’s say, at least 300 milliseconds.
    1:28:40 I like to target 100 milliseconds as my latency.
    1:28:42 That’s kind of performance.
    1:28:48 How much performance of that kind of latency can you squeeze out of a single CPU core?
    1:28:51 That tells you something about what the price of a single request will be.
    1:29:05 But then whether you can deal with 1 million requests a second, like Shopify is doing right now, if you have one box that can do 1,000 requests a second, you just need X boxes to get up to a million.
    1:29:11 And what you’ll actually find is that when it comes to programming languages, they’re all the same in this way.
    1:29:15 They all scale largely, beautifully horizontally.
    1:29:16 You just add more boxes.
    1:29:22 The hard parts of scaling a Shopify is typically not the program language.
    1:29:23 It’s the database.
    1:29:34 And that’s actually one of the challenges that Shopify has now is how do you deal with MySQL at the scale that they’re operating at?
    1:29:39 When do you need to move to other databases to get worldwide performance?
    1:29:40 All of these things.
    1:29:43 The questions about scaling rupee are economic questions.
    1:29:54 If we’re spending so and so much on application servers, if we can get just 5% more performance out of Ruby, well, we could save 5% of those servers and that could filter down into the budget.
    1:29:58 Now, that analysis concludes into basically one thing.
    1:30:02 Ruby is a luxury language.
    1:30:07 It’s a luxury, the highest luxury, in my opinion.
    1:30:13 It is the Kogo Chanel of programming languages, something that not everyone can afford.
    1:30:14 And I mean this in the best possible way.
    1:30:25 There are some applications on the internet where each request has so little value, you can’t afford to use a luxurious language like Ruby to program it.
    1:30:31 You simply have to slum it with a C or a Go or some other low-level language or a Rust.
    1:30:33 Talk about line noise there for a hot second.
    1:30:35 The thrift store of languages.
    1:30:35 Exactly.
    1:30:40 Where you need kind of just, you need a very low level to do it.
    1:30:44 You can’t afford to use a luxury language to build it with.
    1:30:45 That’s not true of Shopify.
    1:30:47 It wasn’t true of Basecamp.
    1:30:53 Even back in 2004, it’s not been true of 99% of all web applications ever created.
    1:30:59 Because the main cost component of 99% of web applications is not CPU cores.
    1:31:01 It’s wet cores.
    1:31:03 It’s human cores.
    1:31:07 It’s human capacity to understand and involve systems.
    1:31:09 It’s their personal productivity.
    1:31:18 I did a calculation once when someone had for the 400th time said that, oh, if you switch from Ruby to some faster language, you could save a bunch of money.
    1:31:30 And I calculated it out that at the time, and I think the last time I did this calculation was almost a decade ago, we were spending about 15% of our operating budget on Ruby application servers.
    1:31:42 So, for me to improve my cost profile of the business by 7 percentage points, I’d have to pick something twice as fast.
    1:31:43 That’s quite hard.
    1:31:50 Versus if Ruby and Ruby on Rails was even 10% more productive than something else, I would move the needle far more.
    1:31:54 Because making individual programmers more productive actually matters a lot more.
    1:31:56 This is why people are so excited about AI.
    1:32:07 This is why they’re freaking out over the fact that a single programmer in Silicon Valley who makes $300,000 a year can now do the work of three or five, at least in theory.
    1:32:11 I haven’t actually seen that fully in practice, but let’s just assume the theory is correct.
    1:32:13 If not now, then in six months.
    1:32:16 That’s a huge deal.
    1:32:21 That matters so much more than whether you can squeeze a few more cycles out of the CPU.
    1:32:32 When it comes to these kinds of business applications, if you’re making Unreal Engine rendering stuff like Tim Sweeney you had on, yeah, he needs to really sweat all those details.
    1:32:34 The Nanite Engine can’t run on Ruby.
    1:32:36 It’s never going to.
    1:32:37 It was not meant for that.
    1:32:37 Fine.
    1:32:40 These kinds of business applications absolutely can.
    1:32:52 And everything that people are excited about AI for right now, that extra capacity to just do more, that was why we were excited about Ruby back in the early 2000s.
    1:33:03 That was because I saw that if we could even squeeze out a 10% improvement of the human programmer, we’d be able to do so much more for so much less.
    1:33:10 You could probably argue about this, but I really like working together with AI, collaborating with AI.
    1:33:15 And I would argue that the kind of code you want AI to generate is human readable, human interpretable.
    1:33:16 Yes.
    1:33:22 If it’s generating pearl golf code, it’s just, it’s not a collaboration.
    1:33:24 So it has to be speaking the human.
    1:33:27 It’s not just you’re writing the prompts in English.
    1:33:33 You also want to read the responses in the human interpretable language like Ruby, right?
    1:33:35 So that’s actually, it’s beneficial for AI too.
    1:33:48 Because you kind of said that for you, the sculptor, the sort of the elitist Coco Chanel sculptor, you want to, on your fancy keyboard, to type every single letter yourself or your own fingers.
    1:33:58 But it’s also that the benefit of Ruby also applies when some of that is written by AI and you’re actually doing with your own fingers the editing.
    1:33:59 Yes.
    1:34:02 Because you can interact with it because it’s human interpretable.
    1:34:07 The paradigm I really love with this was something Elon actually said on one of your shows when you guys were talking about Neuralink.
    1:34:14 That Neuralink allows the bandwidth between you and the machine to increase.
    1:34:18 That language, either spoken or written, is very low bandwidth.
    1:34:25 If you are to calculate just how many bits we can exchange as we’re sitting here, it’s very slow.
    1:34:38 Ruby has a lot more than just how many bits we can see if we’re sitting here on the screen.
    1:34:44 So when you are collaborating with AI, you want really high bandwidth.
    1:35:05 You want it to be able to produce programs with you, whether you’re letting it write the code or not, that both of you can actually understand really quickly and that you can compress a grand concept, a grand system into far fewer parts that both of you can understand.
    1:35:07 Now, I actually love collaborating with AI, too.
    1:35:09 I love chiseling my code.
    1:35:12 And the way I use AI is in a separate window.
    1:35:14 I don’t let it drive my code.
    1:35:15 I’ve tried that.
    1:35:19 I’ve tried the cursors and the windsurf, and I don’t enjoy that way of writing.
    1:35:27 And one of the reasons I don’t enjoy that way of writing is I can literally feel competence draining out of my fingers.
    1:35:33 Like that level of immediacy with the material disappears.
    1:35:40 And where I felt this the most was I did this remix of Ubuntu called Omacube when I switched to Linux.
    1:35:42 And it’s all written in Bash.
    1:35:46 I’d never written any serious amount of code in Bash before.
    1:35:51 So I was using AI to collaborate to write a bunch of Bash with me because I needed all this.
    1:35:52 I knew what I wanted.
    1:35:54 I could express it in Ruby.
    1:36:01 But I thought it was an interesting challenge to filter through Bash because what I was doing was setting up a Linux machine.
    1:36:03 That’s basically what Bash was designed for.
    1:36:04 It’s a great constraint.
    1:36:13 But what I found myself doing was asking AI for the same way of expressing a conditional, for example, in Bash over and over again.
    1:36:16 That by not typing it, I wasn’t learning it.
    1:36:18 I was using it.
    1:36:22 I was getting the expression I wanted, but I wasn’t learning it.
    1:36:23 And I got a little scared.
    1:36:24 I got a little scared.
    1:36:26 Is this the end of learning?
    1:36:29 Am I no longer learning if I’m not typing?
    1:36:34 And the way I, for me, recast that was I don’t want to give up on the AI.
    1:36:43 It is such a better experience as a programmer to look up APIs, to get a second opinion on something, to do a draft.
    1:36:47 But I have to do the typing myself because you learn with your fingers.
    1:36:52 If you’re learning how to play the guitar, you can watch as many YouTube videos as you want.
    1:36:53 You’re not going to learn the guitar.
    1:36:59 You have to put your fingers on the strings to actually learn the motions.
    1:37:05 And I think there is a parallel here to programming where programming has to be learned in part by the actual typing.
    1:37:08 I’m just really, this is fascinating.
    1:37:12 Listen, part of my brain agrees with you 100%, part doesn’t.
    1:37:17 I think AI should be in the loop of learning.
    1:37:20 Now, current systems don’t do that.
    1:37:27 But I think it’s very possible for Cursor to say, to basically force you to type certain things.
    1:37:35 So, like, if you set the mode of learning, I just, I don’t want to be this sort of give up on AI.
    1:37:40 I really, I think, I think vibe coding is a skill.
    1:37:46 So, for an experienced programmer, it’s too easy to dismiss vibe coding as a thing.
    1:37:47 I agree.
    1:37:47 I wouldn’t dismiss it.
    1:37:58 But I think you need to start building that skill and start to figure out how do you prevent the competency from slipping away from your fingers and brain.
    1:38:02 Like, how do you develop that skill in parallel to the other skill?
    1:38:03 I don’t know.
    1:38:06 I just, I think it’s a fascinating puzzle, though.
    1:38:12 I know too many really strong programmers that just kind of avoid AI because it’s currently a little too dumb.
    1:38:13 Yes.
    1:38:15 It’s a little too slow is actually my main problem.
    1:38:18 It’s a little too dumb in some ways, but it’s a little too slow in other ways.
    1:38:29 When I use Claude’s code, the terminal version of Claude, which is actually my preferred way of using it, I just, I get too impatient.
    1:38:35 It feels like I’m going back to a time where code had to compile and I had to go do something else.
    1:38:37 A boil some tea while the code is compiling.
    1:38:39 Well, I’ve been working in Ruby for 20 years.
    1:38:43 I don’t have compile weight in me anymore.
    1:38:45 So there’s that aspect of it.
    1:38:49 But I think the more crucial aspect for me is I really care about the competence.
    1:38:55 And I’ve seen what happens to even great programmers the moment they put away the keyboard.
    1:38:59 Because even before AI, this would happen as soon as people would get promoted.
    1:39:07 Most great programmers who work in large businesses stop writing code on a daily basis because they simply have too many meetings to attend to.
    1:39:09 They have too many other things to do.
    1:39:13 And invariably, they lose touch with programming.
    1:39:16 That doesn’t mean they forget everything.
    1:39:24 But if you don’t have your fingers in the sauce, the source, you are going to lose touch with it.
    1:39:25 There’s just no other way.
    1:39:27 I don’t want that because I enjoy it too much.
    1:39:29 This is not just about outcomes.
    1:39:32 This is what’s crucial to understand.
    1:39:38 Programming for programmers who like to code is not just about the programs they get out of it.
    1:39:40 That may be the economic value.
    1:39:42 It’s not the only human value.
    1:39:45 The human value is just as much in the expression.
    1:39:55 When someone who sits down on a guitar and plays Stairways to Heaven, there’s a perfect recording of that that will last in eternity.
    1:39:57 You can just put it on Spotify.
    1:39:58 You don’t actually need to do it.
    1:40:01 The joy is to command the guitar yourself.
    1:40:06 The joy of a programmer, of me as a programmer, is to type the code myself.
    1:40:12 If I promote myself out of programming, I turn myself into a project manager.
    1:40:17 A project manager of a murder of AI crows, as I wrote the other day.
    1:40:21 I could have become a project manager my whole career.
    1:40:26 I could have become a project manager 20 years ago if I didn’t care to write code myself and I just wanted outcomes.
    1:40:28 That’s how I got started in programming.
    1:40:29 I just wanted outcomes.
    1:40:34 Then I fell in love with programming and now I’d rather retire than giving up.
    1:40:38 Now, that doesn’t mean you can’t have your cake and eat it too.
    1:40:44 I’ve done some vibe coding where I didn’t care that I wasn’t playing myself.
    1:40:45 I just wanted to see something.
    1:40:47 There was an idea in my head.
    1:40:49 I wanted to see something.
    1:40:49 That’s fine.
    1:40:52 I also use AI all day long.
    1:40:59 In fact, I’m already at the point where if you took it away from me, I’d be like, oh, my God, how do we even look things up on the Internet anymore?
    1:41:01 Is Stack Overflow still around?
    1:41:03 Or I’m still a thing?
    1:41:07 Like, how do I even find answers to some of these questions I have all day long?
    1:41:08 I don’t want to give up AI.
    1:41:13 In fact, I’d say the way I like to use AI, I’m getting smarter every day because of AI.
    1:41:19 Because I’m using AI to have it explain things to me, even stupid questions.
    1:41:22 I would be a little embarrassed to even enter into Google.
    1:41:31 AI is perfectly willing to give me the ELI 5 explanation of some Unix command I should have known already, but I don’t.
    1:41:32 I’m sorry.
    1:41:33 Can you just explain it to me?
    1:41:34 And now I know the thing.
    1:41:40 So at the end of the day of me working with AI all day long, I’m a little bit smarter.
    1:41:41 Like 5%.
    1:41:43 Sorry, not 5%.
    1:41:44 Half a percent, maybe.
    1:41:46 That compounds over time.
    1:41:56 But what I’ve also seen when I worked on the Omaku project and I tried to let AI drive for me, I felt I was maybe half a percent dumber at the end of the day.
    1:41:58 Okay, you said a lot of interesting things.
    1:42:02 First of all, let’s just start with the very fact that asking dumb questions.
    1:42:09 If you go to Stack Overflow and ask a dumb question or read somebody else’s dumb question and the answer to it, there’s a lot of judgment there.
    1:42:13 AI, sometimes to an excessive degree, has no judgment.
    1:42:16 It usually says, oh, that’s a great question.
    1:42:17 To a fault.
    1:42:18 Yeah.
    1:42:19 Oh, that’s wonderful.
    1:42:21 Yeah.
    1:42:25 I mean, it’s so conducive to learning.
    1:42:27 It’s such a wonderful tool for learning.
    1:42:29 And I too would miss it.
    1:42:37 And it’s a great, basically, search engine into all kinds of nuances of a particular programming language, especially if you don’t know it that well.
    1:42:40 Or like APIs, you can load in documentation.
    1:42:41 It’s just so great for learning.
    1:42:50 For me personally, it, I mean, on the happiness scale, it makes me more excited to program.
    1:42:53 I don’t know what that is exactly.
    1:42:58 Part of that is the, I’m really sorry, Stack Overflow is an incredible website.
    1:43:00 There is a negativity there.
    1:43:00 Yes.
    1:43:01 There’s a judgment there.
    1:43:09 There’s, it’s just exciting to be a, like a, with a hype man next to me, just like saying, yeah, that’s a great idea.
    1:43:11 And I’ll say, no, that’s wrong.
    1:43:12 I’ll, I’ll correct the AI.
    1:43:16 And, and the AI will say, you’re absolutely right.
    1:43:17 How did I not think about that?
    1:43:19 Rewrite the code.
    1:43:20 I’m like, holy shit.
    1:43:27 I’m having, it’s like a buddy that’s like really being positive and is very smart and is challenging me to think.
    1:43:32 And even if I never use the code it generates, I’m already a better programmer.
    1:43:37 But actually the deeper thing is for some reason, I’m having more fun.
    1:43:38 That’s a really, really important thing.
    1:43:41 I like to think of it as a pair programmer for exactly that reason.
    1:43:51 Pair programming came of vogue in like the 2000s where you’d have two programmers in front of one machine and you’d push the keyboard between you.
    1:43:53 One program would be driving.
    1:43:54 They’d be typing in.
    1:43:59 The other programmer would essentially sit and watch the code, suggest improvements, look something up.
    1:44:02 That was a really interesting dynamic.
    1:44:03 Now, unfortunately, I’m an introvert.
    1:44:07 So I can do that for about five minutes before I want to jump off a bridge.
    1:44:10 So it doesn’t work for me as a full-time occupation.
    1:44:15 But AI allows me to have all the best of that experience all the time.
    1:44:18 Now, I think what’s really interesting what you said about it makes it more fun.
    1:44:24 I hadn’t actually thought about that, but what it’s made more fun to me is to be a beginner again.
    1:44:29 It made it more fun to learn Bash successfully for the first time.
    1:44:39 Now, I had to do the detour where I let it write all the code for me and I realized I wasn’t learning nearly as much as I hoped I would and that I started doing once I typed it out myself.
    1:44:49 But it gave me the confidence that, you know what, if I need to do some iOS programming myself, I haven’t done that in probably six years was the last time I dabbled in it.
    1:44:51 I never really built anything for real.
    1:44:56 I feel highly confident now that I could sit down with AI and I could have something in the App Store by the end of the week.
    1:45:01 I would not have that confidence unless I had a pair programming body like AI.
    1:45:04 I don’t actually use it very much for Ruby code.
    1:45:07 I’m occasionally impressed whenever I try it.
    1:45:08 They’re like, oh, it got this one thing right.
    1:45:10 That is truly remarkable.
    1:45:11 And it’s actually pretty good.
    1:45:14 And then I’ll ask it two more questions and I go like, oh, yeah, okay.
    1:45:20 If you were my junior programmer, I’d start tapping my fingers and going like, you got to shape up.
    1:45:23 Now, the great thing, of course, is we can just wait five minutes.
    1:45:29 The entropic CEO seems to think that 90% of all code by the end of the year is going to be written by AI.
    1:45:32 I’m more than a little bit skeptical about that.
    1:45:41 But I’m open-minded about the prospect that programming potentially will turn into a horse when done manually.
    1:45:43 Something we do recreationally.
    1:45:46 It’s no longer a mode of transportation to get around LA.
    1:45:51 You’re not going to saddle up and go to the grocery store and pick up stuff from Whole Foods in your saddlebags.
    1:45:53 That’s just not a thing anymore.
    1:45:57 That could be the future for programming, for manual programming.
    1:45:58 Entirely possible.
    1:46:00 I also don’t care.
    1:46:08 Even though we have great renditions of all the best songs, as I said, there are millions of people who love to play the guitar.
    1:46:11 It may no longer have as much economic value as it once did.
    1:46:14 I think that I’m quite convinced is true.
    1:46:16 That we perhaps have seen the peak.
    1:46:20 Now, I understand the paradox when the price of something goes down.
    1:46:24 Actually, the overall usage goes up and total spend on that activity goes up.
    1:46:25 That could also happen.
    1:46:26 Maybe.
    1:46:35 But what we’re seeing right now is that a lot of the big shops, a lot of big companies are not hiring like they were five years ago.
    1:46:38 They’re not anticipating they’re going to need tons more programmers.
    1:46:48 Controversially, Toby actually put out a memo inside of Shopify asking everyone who’s considering hiring someone to ask the question, could this be done by AI?
    1:46:51 Now, he’s further ahead on this question than I am.
    1:46:55 I look at some of the coding trenches and I go like, I’d love to use AI more.
    1:46:56 And I see how it’s making us more productive.
    1:47:00 But it’s not yet at the level where I just go like, oh, we have this project.
    1:47:02 Let me just give it to the AI agent.
    1:47:03 And it’s going to go off and do it.
    1:47:04 But let’s just be honest.
    1:47:10 You’re like a Clint Eastwood type character, cowboy on a horse, seeing cars going around.
    1:47:11 You’re like, well.
    1:47:12 That’s part of it.
    1:47:20 And I think that it is important to have that humility, that what you are good at may no longer be what society values.
    1:47:26 This has happened a million times in history that you could have been exceptionally good at saddle making, for example.
    1:47:29 That’s something that a lot of people used to care about because everyone rode a horse.
    1:47:37 And then suddenly riding a horse became this niche hobby that there are some people care about it, but not nearly as many.
    1:47:38 That’s OK.
    1:47:44 Now, the other thing of this is I’ve had the good fortune to have been a programmer for nearly 30 years.
    1:47:45 That’s a great run.
    1:48:02 I try to look at life in this way, that I’ve already been blessed with decades of economically viable, highly valuable ways of translating what I like best in the working world to write Ruby code.
    1:48:07 That that was so valuable that I could make millions and millions of dollars doing it.
    1:48:10 And if that’s over tomorrow, I shouldn’t look at that with regret.
    1:48:12 I should look at it with gratitude.
    1:48:20 But you’re also a highly experienced, brilliant and opinionated human being.
    1:48:32 So it’s really interesting to get your opinion on the future of the horse because, you know, there’s a lot of young people listening to this who love programming or who are excited by the possibility of building stuff with software.
    1:48:37 With Ruby, with Ruby, with Ruby on Rails, that kind of language.
    1:48:39 And now the possibility.
    1:48:40 But is it a career?
    1:48:41 Is it a career?
    1:48:52 And how, if indeed a single person can build more and more and more with the help of AI, like how do they learn that skill?
    1:48:53 Is this a good skill to learn?
    1:49:03 I mean, that to me is the real mystery here because I think it’s still absolutely true that you have to learn how to program from scratch currently.
    1:49:03 Yes.
    1:49:06 But how do you balance those two skills?
    1:49:12 Because I too, as I’m thinking now, there is a scary slipping away of skill that happens.
    1:49:20 In a matter of like really minutes on a particular piece of code, it’s just, it’s scary.
    1:49:29 Not the way driving, you know, when you have a car drive for you, it doesn’t quite slip away that fast.
    1:49:32 So that really scares me.
    1:49:35 So when somebody comes up to me and asks me like, how do I learn to program?
    1:49:44 I don’t know what the advice is because I think it’s not enough to just use cursor or Copod to generate code.
    1:49:45 It’s absolutely not enough.
    1:49:46 Not if you want to learn.
    1:49:48 Not if you want to become better at it.
    1:49:55 If you just become a tap monkey, maybe you’re productive in a second, but then you have to realize, well, can anyone just tap?
    1:49:58 If that’s all we’re doing, we’re just sitting around all day long tapping.
    1:50:00 Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.
    1:50:01 That’s not a marketable skill.
    1:50:10 Now, I always preface this both to myself and when I speak to others about it is rule number one, nobody fucking knows anything.
    1:50:13 No one can predict even six months ahead.
    1:50:20 Right now, we’re probably at peak AI future hype because we see all the promise because so much of it is real.
    1:50:33 And so many people have experienced it themselves, this mind boggling thing that the silicon is thinking in some way that feels eerily reminiscent of humans.
    1:50:36 I’d actually say the big thing for me wasn’t even chat GPT.
    1:50:37 It wasn’t even clawed.
    1:50:38 It was DeepSeek.
    1:50:48 Running DeepSeek locally and seeing the think box where it converses with itself about how to formulate the response.
    1:50:51 I almost wanted to think, is this a gimmick?
    1:50:56 Is it doing this as a performance for my benefit, but that’s not actually how it thinks?
    1:50:58 If this is how it actually thinks, okay, I’m a little scared.
    1:51:03 This is incredibly human how it thinks in this way.
    1:51:05 But where does that go?
    1:51:12 So, in 95, one of my favorite movies, one of my favorite B movies came out, The Lawnmower Man.
    1:51:13 Great movie.
    1:51:15 Incredible movie about virtual reality.
    1:51:21 Being an avatar and living in VR, like the story was a mess, but the aesthetics, the world that built up was incredible.
    1:51:24 And I thought, we’re five years away.
    1:51:27 I’m going to be living in VR now.
    1:51:29 I’m just going to be floating around.
    1:51:29 I’m going to be an avatar.
    1:51:32 This is where most humans can spend most of the day.
    1:51:34 That didn’t happen.
    1:51:36 We’re 30 years later.
    1:51:40 VR is still not here.
    1:51:41 It’s here for gaming.
    1:51:44 It’s here for some specialized applications.
    1:51:47 My oldest loves playing Gorilla Tag.
    1:51:48 I don’t know if you’ve tried that.
    1:51:50 That’s basically the hottest VR game.
    1:51:51 Wonderful.
    1:51:52 That’s great.
    1:51:56 It’s really hard to predict the future because we just don’t know.
    1:52:04 And then when you factor in AI and you have even the smartest people go like, I don’t think we fully understand how this works.
    1:52:14 But then on the flip side, you have Moore’s Law that seems to have worked for many, many, many years in decreasing the size of the transistor, for example.
    1:52:21 So like, you know, Flash didn’t take over the internet, but Moore’s Law worked.
    1:52:23 So we don’t know which one AI is.
    1:52:23 Which one it is.
    1:52:26 And this is what I find so fascinating, too.
    1:52:33 I forget who did this presentation, but someone in the web community did this great presentation on the history of the airplane.
    1:52:38 So you go from the Wright Brothers flying in, what, 1903 or something like that.
    1:52:42 And 40 years later, you have a jet flight.
    1:52:46 Just an unbelievable amount of progress in four decades.
    1:52:56 Then in 56, I think it was, the hull design for the Boeing 747, essentially, precursor was designed.
    1:52:58 And basically nothing has happened since.
    1:53:04 Just minor tweaks and improvements on the flying experience since the 50s.
    1:53:16 Somehow, if you were to predict where flying was going to go and you were sitting in 42, and you’d seen, you’d remember the Wright Brothers flying in 03, and you were seeing that jet engines coming.
    1:53:20 You’re like, we’re going to fly to the stars in another two decades.
    1:53:27 We’re going to invent super mega hypersonic flights that’s going to traverse the Earth in two hours.
    1:53:28 And then that didn’t happen.
    1:53:29 It tapped out.
    1:53:32 This is what’s so hard about predicting the future.
    1:53:38 We can be so excited in the moment because we’re drawing a line through early dots on a chart.
    1:53:40 And it looks like those early dots are just going up and to the right.
    1:53:41 And sometimes it’s just flattened out.
    1:53:47 This is also one of those things where we have so much critical infrastructure, for example, that still runs on COBOL.
    1:53:59 That about five humans around the world really understand truly, deeply that it’s possible for society to lose a competence it still needs because it’s chasing the future.
    1:54:01 COBOL is still with us.
    1:54:04 This is one of the things I think about with programming.
    1:54:12 Ruby and Rails is at such a level now that in 50 years from now, it’s exceedingly likely that there’s still a ton of Ruby and Rails systems running around.
    1:54:16 Now, very hard to predict what that exact world is going to be like.
    1:54:27 But yesterday’s weather tells us that if there’s still COBOL code from the 70s operating Social Security today, and we haven’t figured out a clean way to convert that, let alone understand it,
    1:54:32 We should certainly be humble about predicting the future.
    1:54:42 I don’t think any of the programmers who wrote that COBOL code back in the 70s had any damn idea that in 2025, checks were still being cut off the business logic that they had encoded back then.
    1:54:47 But that just brings me to the conclusion on the question for what should a young programmer do?
    1:54:49 You’re not going to be able to predict the future.
    1:54:51 No one’s going to be able to predict the future.
    1:54:54 If you like programming, you should learn programming.
    1:54:56 Now, is that going to be a career forever?
    1:54:58 I don’t know, but what’s going to be a career forever?
    1:54:59 Who knows?
    1:55:05 Like a second ago, we thought that it was the blue-collar labor that was going to be extracted first.
    1:55:07 It was the robots that were going to take over.
    1:55:13 Then Gen. AI comes out, and then all the artists suddenly look like, holy shit, is this going to do all animation now?
    1:55:15 It’s going to do all music now?
    1:55:16 They get real scared.
    1:55:21 And now I see the latest Tesla robot going like, oh, maybe we’re back now to blue-collar being in trouble,
    1:55:26 because if it can dance like that, it can probably fix a toilet.
    1:55:29 So, no one knows anything.
    1:55:36 And you have to then position yourself for the future in such a way that it doesn’t matter.
    1:55:43 That you pick a profession or path where if it turns out that you have to retool and reskill,
    1:55:45 you’re not going to regret the path you took.
    1:55:51 That’s a general life principle for me, how I look at all endeavors I involve myself in,
    1:55:55 is I want to be content with all outcomes.
    1:56:00 When we start working on a new product at 37 Signals, I set up my mental model for its success.
    1:56:02 And I go, do you know what?
    1:56:08 If no one wants this, I will have had another opportunity to write beautiful Ruby code,
    1:56:13 to explore Greenfield domain, to learn something new, to build a system I want,
    1:56:15 even if no one else wants it.
    1:56:16 What a blessing.
    1:56:18 What a privilege.
    1:56:21 If a bunch of people want it, that’s great.
    1:56:23 We can pay some salaries.
    1:56:24 We can keep the business running.
    1:56:27 And if it’s a blowaway success, wonderful.
    1:56:28 I get to impact a bunch of people.
    1:56:35 I think one of the big open questions to me is how far you can get with vibe coding.
    1:56:40 Whether an approach for a young developer to invest most of the time into vibe coding
    1:56:42 or into writing code from scratch.
    1:56:48 So vibe coding meaning, I’m leaning into the meme a little bit,
    1:56:51 but vibe coding meaning you generate code.
    1:56:54 You have this idea of a thing you want to create.
    1:56:59 You generate the code and then you fix it with both natural language to the prompts and manually.
    1:57:02 You learn enough to manually fix it.
    1:57:05 So that’s the learning process, how you fix code that’s generated.
    1:57:16 Or you write code from scratch and have the LLMs kind of tab, tab, tab, tab, add extra code.
    1:57:19 Like which part do you lean on?
    1:57:27 I think to be safe, you should find the beauty and the artistry and the skill in both.
    1:57:28 Write from scratch.
    1:57:32 Like there should be some percent of your time just writing from scratch and some percent vibe coding.
    1:57:35 There should be more of the time writing from scratch.
    1:57:41 If you are interested in learning how to program, unfortunately, you’re not going to get fit by watching fitness videos.
    1:57:45 You’re not going to learn how to play the guitar by watching YouTube guitar videos.
    1:57:47 You have to actually play yourself.
    1:57:48 You have to do the sit-ups.
    1:57:53 Programming, understanding, learning almost anything requires you to do.
    1:58:01 Humans are not built to absorb information in a way that transforms into skills by just watching others from afar.
    1:58:05 Now, ironically, it seems AI is actually quite good at that, but humans are not.
    1:58:10 If you want to learn how to become a competent programmer, you have to program.
    1:58:14 It’s really not that difficult to understand.
    1:58:15 Now, understand the temptation.
    1:58:26 And the temptation is there because vibe coding can produce things, perhaps in this moment, especially in a new domain you’re not familiar with, with tools you don’t know perfectly well that’s better than what you could do.
    1:58:30 Or that you would take much longer to get at, but you’re not going to learn anything.
    1:58:37 You’re going to learn in this superficial way that feels like learning, but it’s completely empty calories.
    1:58:42 And secondly, if you can just vibe code it, you’re not a programmer.
    1:58:44 Then anyone could do it, which may be wonderful.
    1:58:47 That’s essentially what happened with the Access database.
    1:58:48 That’s what happened with Excel.
    1:59:00 It took the capacity of accountants to become software developers because the tools became so accessible to them that they could build a model for how the business was going to do next week.
    1:59:03 That required a programmer prior to Excel.
    1:59:05 Now it didn’t because they could do it themselves.
    1:59:16 Vibe coding enables non-programmers to explore their ideas in a way that I find absolutely wonderful, but it doesn’t make you a programmer.
    1:59:21 I agree with you, but I want to allow for room for both of us to be wrong.
    1:59:26 For example, there could be, vibe coding could actually be a skill.
    1:59:33 That if you train it, and by vibe coding, let’s include the step of correction, the iterative correction.
    1:59:39 It’s possible if you get really good at that, that you’re outperforming the people that write from scratch.
    1:59:51 That you can come up with truly innovative things, especially at this moment in history, while the LLMs are a little bit too dumb to create super novel things and a complete product.
    1:59:54 But they’re starting to creep close to that.
    2:00:04 So if you’re investing time now into becoming a really good vibe coder, maybe this is the right thing to do if it’s indeed a skill.
    2:00:08 We kind of meme about vibe coding just like sitting back and it’s in the name.
    2:00:27 But if you treat it seriously, a competitive vibe coder and get good at riding the wave of AI and get good at the skill of editing code versus writing code from scratch, it’s possible that you can actually get farther in the long term.
    2:00:34 Maybe editing is a fundamentally different task than writing from scratch, if you take that seriously as a skill that you develop.
    2:00:37 To me, that’s an open question.
    2:00:50 I just think I personally, and now you’re on another level, but just me, just personally, I’m not as good at editing the code that I didn’t write.
    2:00:51 No one is.
    2:00:57 No one is of this generation, but maybe that’s a skill.
    2:01:02 Maybe if you get on the same page as the AI, because there’s a consistency to the AI.
    2:01:08 It’s like, it really is a pair programmer with a consistent style and structure and so on.
    2:01:12 Plus, with your own prompting, you can control the kind of code you write.
    2:01:14 I mean, it could legitimately be a skill.
    2:01:16 That’s the dream of the prompt engineer.
    2:01:18 I think it’s a complete pipe dream.
    2:01:24 I don’t think editors exist that aren’t good at writing.
    2:01:25 I’ve written a number of books.
    2:01:27 I’ve had a number of professional editors.
    2:01:33 Not all of them wrote their own great books, but all of them were great writers in some regard.
    2:01:36 You cannot give someone pointers if you don’t know how to do it.
    2:01:46 It’s very difficult for an editor to be able to spot what’s wrong with a problem if they couldn’t make the solution themselves.
    2:01:49 Editing, in my opinion, is the reward.
    2:01:54 The capacity to be a good editor is the reward you get from being a good doer.
    2:01:56 You have to be a doer first.
    2:02:07 Now, that’s not the same as saying that vibe coding, prompt engineering, won’t be able to produce fully formed, amazing systems even shortly.
    2:02:08 I think that’s entirely possible.
    2:02:13 But then there’s no skill left, which maybe is the greatest payoff at all.
    2:02:23 Wasn’t that the whole promise of AI anyway, that it was just all natural language, that even my clumsy way of formulating a question could result in a beautiful, succinct answer?
    2:02:32 That actually, to me, is a much more appealing vision, that there’s going to be these special prompt engineering wizards who know how to tickle the AI just right to produce what they want.
    2:02:44 But the beauty of AI is to think that someone who doesn’t know the first thing about how AI actually works is able to formulate their idea and their aspirations for what they want.
    2:02:50 And the AI could somehow take that messy clump of ideas and produce something that someone wants.
    2:02:53 That’s actually what programming has always been.
    2:03:01 There’s very often been people who didn’t know how to program, who wanted programs, who then hired programmers, who gave them messy descriptions of what they wanted.
    2:03:06 And then when the programmers delivered that back, said, oh, no, actually, that’s not what I meant.
    2:03:07 I want something else.
    2:03:11 AI may be able to provide that cycle.
    2:03:16 If that happens to the fullest extent of it, yeah, there’s not going to be as many programmers around, right?
    2:03:26 But hopefully, presumably, someone still, at least for the foreseeable future, have to understand whether what the AI is producing actually works or not.
    2:03:35 As an interesting case study, maybe a thought experiment, if I wanted to vibe code Basecamp or Hay,
    2:03:42 and some of the products you’ve built, like, what would be the bottlenecks?
    2:03:44 Where would I fail along the way?
    2:03:51 What I’ve seen when I’ve been trying to do this, trying to use vibe coding to build something real, is you actually fail really early.
    2:04:00 The vibe coding is able to build a veneer at the current present moment of something that looks like it works, but it’s flawed in all sorts of ways.
    2:04:07 There are the obvious ways, the meme ways that it’s leaking all your API keys, it’s storing your password in plain text.
    2:04:10 I think that’s ultimately solvable.
    2:04:13 Like, it’s going to figure that out, or at least it’s going to get better at that.
    2:04:18 But its capacity to get lost in its own labyrinth is very great right now.
    2:04:24 You let it code something, and then you want to change something, and it becomes a game of whack-a-mole real quick.
    2:04:32 Peter Lovells, who’s been doing this wonderful flight simulator, was talking to that, where at a certain scale, the thing just keeps biting its own tail.
    2:04:38 You want to fix something, and it breaks five other things, which I think is actually uniquely human, because that’s how most bad programmers are.
    2:04:45 At a certain level of complexity with the domain, they can’t fix one thing without breaking three other things.
    2:04:55 So in that way, I’m actually, in some way, it’s almost a positive signal for that the AI is going to figure this out, because it’s on an extremely human trajectory right now.
    2:04:59 The kind of mistakes it’s making are the kind of mistakes that junior programmers make all the time.
    2:05:06 Can we zoom out and look at the vision, the manifesto, the doctrine of Rails?
    2:05:14 What are some of the things that make a programming language, a framework, great, especially for web development?
    2:05:15 So we talked about happiness.
    2:05:16 Yes.
    2:05:18 The underlying objective of Ruby.
    2:05:20 What else?
    2:05:23 So you’re looking at the nine points I wrote out in, I think, 2012.
    2:05:36 And first, before we dive into them, I want to say the reason I wrote it down is that if you want a community to endure, you have to record its values and you have to record its practices.
    2:05:43 If you don’t, eventually you’re going to get enough new people come in who have their own ideas of where this thing should go.
    2:05:50 And if we don’t have a guiding light helping us to make decisions, we’re going to start flailing.
    2:05:51 We’re going to start actually falling apart.
    2:05:56 I think this is one of the key reasons that institutions of all kinds start falling apart.
    2:05:59 We forget why Chesterton’s fence is there.
    2:06:01 We just go like, why is that fence there?
    2:06:02 Let’s yank it out.
    2:06:03 Oh, it was to keep the wolves out.
    2:06:04 Now we’re all dead.
    2:06:05 Oops.
    2:06:08 So I wanted to write these things down.
    2:06:12 And if we just take them quick one by one, you talked about optimizing for programmer happiness.
    2:06:15 I put that at number one in homage of Matt’s.
    2:06:22 And that’s a lot about accepting that there is occasionally a trade-off between writing beautiful code and other things we want out of systems.
    2:06:24 There could be a runtime trade-off.
    2:06:26 There can be a performance trade-off.
    2:06:27 But we’re going to do it nonetheless.
    2:06:36 We’re also going to allow ambiguity in a way that many programmers by default are uncomfortable with.
    2:06:44 I give the example actually here of in the interactive Ruby shell where you can play with the language or even interact with your domain model.
    2:06:48 You can quit it in two ways, at least, that I’ve found.
    2:06:49 You can write exit.
    2:06:50 Boom.
    2:06:51 You’re out of the program.
    2:06:52 You can write quit.
    2:06:53 Boom.
    2:06:53 You’re out of the program.
    2:06:54 They do the same thing.
    2:07:00 We just wrote both exit, or the people who built that, wrote both exit and quit because they knew humans were likely to pick one or the other.
    2:07:04 Python is the perfect contrast to this.
    2:07:09 In the Python interactive protocol, if you write exit, it won’t exit.
    2:07:10 It’ll give you a fucking lesson.
    2:07:13 It’ll basically tell you to read the fucking manual.
    2:07:21 It says, use exit parentheses or control D, i.e. end of file, to exit.
    2:07:26 I’m like, one is very human and another is very engineer.
    2:07:30 And I mean that, both of them, in the best possible way.
    2:07:32 Python is pedantic.
    2:07:41 Python’s value from the start stated is that there should be preferably one and only one way to do a certain thing.
    2:07:43 Ruby goes the complete opposite.
    2:07:52 No, we want the full expression that fits different human brains, such that it seems like the language is guessing just what they want.
    2:07:59 And part of that is also you described the principle of least surprise, which is a difficult thing to engineer into a language.
    2:08:02 Because you have to kind of, it’s a subjective thing.
    2:08:06 Which is why you can’t do it in one way, which is why I use the example of both exit and quit.
    2:08:12 The principle of least surprise for some people would be like, oh, exit, that’s how I get out of the prompt.
    2:08:13 For other people, it’d be quit.
    2:08:15 Why don’t we just do both?
    2:08:19 Okay, so what’s the convention over configuration?
    2:08:20 That’s a big one.
    2:08:21 That’s a big one.
    2:08:22 That’s a huge one.
    2:08:27 And it was born out of a frustration I had in the early days with especially Java frameworks.
    2:08:38 Where when you were setting up a web application framework for Java back in the day, it was not uncommon to literally write hundreds, if not thousands of lines of XML configuration files.
    2:08:39 Oh, I need this.
    2:08:45 I want the database to use the foreign keys as post underscore ID.
    2:08:45 No, no, no.
    2:08:49 I want it as post capital I D.
    2:08:50 Oh, no, no, no.
    2:08:52 You have to do a capital P ID.
    2:08:58 There are all these ways where you can configure how foreign relation keys should work in a database.
    2:08:59 And none of them matter.
    2:09:02 We just need to pick one and then that’s fine.
    2:09:06 And if we pick one and we can depend on it, it becomes a convention.
    2:09:08 And if it’s a convention, we don’t have to configure it.
    2:09:12 And if we don’t have to configure it, you can get started with what you actually care about much quicker.
    2:09:19 So convention of a configuration is essentially to take that idea that the system should come preassembled.
    2:09:24 I’m not just handing you a box of fucking Legos and asking you to build the Millennium Falcon.
    2:09:25 I’m giving you a finished toy.
    2:09:26 You can edit.
    2:09:27 You can change it.
    2:09:28 It’s still built out of Legos.
    2:09:30 You can still take some pieces off and put in some other pieces.
    2:09:32 But I’m giving you the final product.
    2:09:36 And this cuts against the grain of what most programmers love.
    2:09:37 They love a box of Legos.
    2:09:40 They love to put everything together from scratch.
    2:09:44 They love to make all these detailed little decisions that just don’t matter at all.
    2:09:48 And I want to elevate that up such that, hey, I’m not trying to take the decisions away from you.
    2:09:52 I just want you to focus on decisions that actually matter, that you truly care about.
    2:09:57 No one cares about whether it’s post underscore ID or post ID or PID.
    2:09:59 Yeah, great defaults.
    2:09:59 Yes.
    2:10:00 It’s just a wonderful thing.
    2:10:02 You have all these aspirations.
    2:10:08 They’re going to do some kind of custom, most beautiful Legos castle that nobody’s ever built from these pieces.
    2:10:14 But in reality, to be productive in most situations, you just need to build the basic thing.
    2:10:18 And then on top of that is where your creativity comes.
    2:10:19 Absolutely.
    2:10:31 And I think this is one of those part of the doctrine that a lot of programmers who get to use Ruby on Rails begrudgingly will acknowledge it’s a nice thing, even if they don’t really like it.
    2:10:39 Like, it’s hard to beat the sort of attraction to building with Legos from scratch out of programmers.
    2:10:40 That’s just what we like.
    2:10:43 This is why we’re programmers in the first place, because we’d like to put these little pieces together.
    2:10:48 But we can direct that instinct towards a more productive end of the stack.
    2:10:49 Okay.
    2:10:50 What are some of the other ones?
    2:10:53 The menu is Amakasa.
    2:10:57 It actually comes out of the same principle, that great defaults really matter.
    2:11:04 If you look at everything that’s wrong with the JavaScript ecosystem right now, for example, it is that no one is in charge of the menu.
    2:11:11 There are a billion different dishes, and you can configure just your tailored, specific configuration of it.
    2:11:14 But no one done the work to make sure it all fits together.
    2:11:18 So you have all these unique problems in the JavaScript ecosystem, for example.
    2:11:23 There’s probably 25 major ways of just doing the controller layer.
    2:11:26 And then as many of how to talk to the database.
    2:11:32 So you get this permutation of N times N times N of no one is using the same thing.
    2:11:35 And if they are using the same thing, they’re only using the same thing for about five minutes.
    2:11:38 So we have no retained wisdom.
    2:11:40 We build up no durable skills.
    2:11:44 Rails goes the complete opposite way of saying, do you know what?
    2:11:47 Rails is not just a web framework.
    2:11:51 It is a complete attempt at solving the web problem.
    2:11:56 It’s a complete attempt at solving everything you need to build a great web application.
    2:12:03 And every piece of that puzzle should ideally be in the box, pre-configured, pre-assembled.
    2:12:06 If you want to change some of those pieces later, that’s wonderful.
    2:12:14 But on day one, you’ll get a full menu designed by a chef who really cared about every piece of the ingredient.
    2:12:15 And you’re going to enjoy it.
    2:12:22 And that’s, again, one of those things where many programmers think, like, I know better.
    2:12:26 And they do in some hyper-local sense of it.
    2:12:27 Every programmer knows better.
    2:12:29 This is what Ruby is built on.
    2:12:32 That every programmer knows better in their specific situation.
    2:12:34 Maybe they can do something dangerous.
    2:12:36 Maybe they think they know better.
    2:12:38 And then they blow their foot off.
    2:12:41 And then they truly will know better because they’ve blown their foot off once and won’t do it again.
    2:12:44 But the menu is on the cost is that.
    2:12:48 So you, in general, see the value in the monolith.
    2:12:48 Yes.
    2:12:50 The integrated system.
    2:12:51 Integrated system.
    2:12:53 That someone thought of the whole problem.
    2:12:58 This is one of the reasons why I’ve been on a crusade against microservices since the term was coined.
    2:13:02 Microservices was born out of essentially a good idea.
    2:13:08 What do you do at Netflix scale when you have thousands of engineers working on millions of lines of code?
    2:13:11 No one can keep that entire system in their head at one time.
    2:13:12 You have to break it down.
    2:13:16 Microservices can be a reasonable way to do that when you’re at Netflix scale.
    2:13:23 When you apply that pattern to a team of 20 programmers working on a code base of half a million lines of code, you’re an idiot.
    2:13:30 You just don’t need to turn method invocations into network calls.
    2:13:32 It is the first rule of distributed programming.
    2:13:35 Do not distribute your programming.
    2:13:37 It makes everything harder.
    2:13:43 All the failure conditions you have to consider as a programmer just becomes infinitely harder when there’s a network cable involved.
    2:13:48 So I hate the idea of premature decomposition.
    2:13:50 And microservices is exactly that.
    2:14:00 The monolith says, let’s try to focus on building a whole system that a single human can actually understand and push that paradigm as far as possible.
    2:14:05 By compressing all the concepts such that more of it will fit into memory of a single operating human.
    2:14:09 And then we can have a system where I can actually understand all of Basecamp.
    2:14:14 I can actually understand all of, hey, both of those systems are just over 100,000 lines of code.
    2:14:18 I’ve seen people do this at maybe twice, maybe three times that scale and then starts breaking down.
    2:14:23 Once you get north of certainly half a million lines of code, no individual human can do it.
    2:14:27 And that’s when you get into maybe some degree of microservices can make sense.
    2:14:29 Basecamp and hey are both 100,000?
    2:14:30 100,000 lines of code.
    2:14:31 Wow, that’s small.
    2:14:32 It is.
    2:14:38 Considering the fact that Basecamp, I think, has something like 420 screens, different ways and configurations.
    2:14:40 Do you include the front end in that?
    2:14:42 No, that’s the Ruby code.
    2:14:46 Well, it’s front end in the sense that some of that Ruby code is beneficial to the front end.
    2:14:48 But it’s not JavaScript, for example.
    2:14:53 Now, the other thing we might talk about later is we write very little JavaScript, actually, for all of our applications.
    2:15:00 Hey, which is a Gmail competitor, Gmail ships, I think, 28 megabytes of uncompressed JavaScript.
    2:15:02 If you compress it, I think it’s about 6 megabytes, 28 megabytes.
    2:15:04 Think about how many lines of code that is.
    2:15:07 When Hey launched, we shipped 40 kilobytes.
    2:15:10 It’s trying to solve the same problem.
    2:15:19 You can solve the email client problem with either 28 megabytes of uncompressed JavaScript or with 40 kilobytes if you do things differently.
    2:15:22 But that comes to the same problem, essentially.
    2:15:27 This is why I have fiercely fought splitting front end and back end apart.
    2:15:35 That, in my opinion, this was one of the great crimes against web development that we are still atoning for.
    2:15:43 That we separated and divided what was and should be a unified problem-solving mechanism.
    2:15:46 When you are working both on front end and back end, you understand the whole system.
    2:15:52 And you’re not going to get into these camps that decompose and eventually you end up with shit like GraphQL.
    2:15:54 Okay.
    2:15:58 Let’s fly through the rest of the doctrine.
    2:15:59 No one paradigm.
    2:16:05 No one paradigm goes to the fact that Ruby is a fiercely object-oriented programming language at its core.
    2:16:07 But it’s also a functional programming language.
    2:16:14 This five times I told you about, you can essentially do these anonymous function calls.
    2:16:19 And you can chain them together very much in the spirit of how true functional programming languages work.
    2:16:25 Ruby has even moved closer towards the functional programming end of the scale by making strings immutable.
    2:16:33 There are ideas from all different disciplines and all different paradigms of software development that can fit together.
    2:16:37 Smalltalk, for example, was only object-oriented.
    2:16:38 And that was just it.
    2:16:44 Ruby tries to be mainly object-oriented but borrow a little bit of functional programming, a little bit of imperative programming.
    2:16:45 We’re able to do all of that.
    2:16:47 Rails tries to do the same thing.
    2:16:50 We’re not just going to pick one paradigm and run it through everything.
    2:16:53 Object orientation is at the center of it.
    2:16:56 But it’s okay to invite all these other disciplines in.
    2:16:57 It’s okay to be inspired.
    2:16:58 It’s okay to remix it.
    2:17:04 I actually think one of the main benefits of Rails is that it’s a remix.
    2:17:06 I didn’t invent all these ideas.
    2:17:08 I didn’t come up with active record.
    2:17:11 I didn’t come up with the MVC way of dividing an application.
    2:17:17 I took all the great ideas that I had learned and picked up from every different camp and I put it together.
    2:17:25 Not because there was going to be just one single overarching theory of everything, but I was going to have a cohesive unit that incorporated the best from everywhere.
    2:17:30 Is that idea a bit at tension with the beauty of the monolith system?
    2:17:48 I think the monolith can be thought of as quite roomy, quite as a big tent that the monolith needs actually to borrow a little bit of functional programming for the kinds of problems that that excels, that discipline excels at solving and that paradigm excels at solving.
    2:17:55 If you also want object orientation as its core, I actually think when I’ve looked at functional programming languages, there’s a lot to love.
    2:18:05 And then I see some of the crazy contortions they have to go through when part of the problem they’re solving calls for mutating something.
    2:18:11 And you go like, holy shit, this is a great paradigm for 90% of the problem.
    2:18:15 And then you’re twisting yourself completely out of shape when you try to solve the last 10.
    2:18:18 Ooh, exalt beautiful code is the next one.
    2:18:31 We’ve talked about that at length, and here’s a great example that really summarizes the domain-specific language quality of Ruby on Rails, that you can make code actually pleasant to write and read.
    2:18:36 Which is really funny to me because, as we talked about, when I started learning programming, it wasn’t even a consideration.
    2:18:46 I didn’t even know that that could be part of the premise, that that could be part of the solution, that writing code could feel as good as writing a poem.
    2:18:56 Class project, application record belongs to account, has many participants, class name person, validates presence of name.
    2:18:58 See, you could read it out.
    2:18:59 You didn’t even change anything.
    2:19:00 It’s like a haiku or something.
    2:19:01 Right.
    2:19:02 Isn’t that beautiful?
    2:19:03 Yeah, it’s nice.
    2:19:05 It’s really nice.
    2:19:07 There’s an intuitive nature to it.
    2:19:10 Okay, so I have specific questions there.
    2:19:15 I mean, active record, just to take that tangent, that has to be your favorite feature.
    2:19:16 It’s the crown jewel.
    2:19:18 Of Rails.
    2:19:19 It really is.
    2:19:23 It is the defining characteristic of how to work with Ruby on Rails.
    2:19:23 Yeah.
    2:19:27 And it’s born in an interesting level of controversy.
    2:19:34 Because it actually uses a pattern that had been described by Martin Fowler in the Patterns of Enterprise Application Architecture.
    2:19:39 One of the greatest books for anyone working on business systems.
    2:19:41 And if you had not read it, you must pick it up immediately.
    2:19:44 Patterns of Enterprise Application Architecture.
    2:19:45 I think it was published in 2001.
    2:19:50 It is one of the very few programming books that I have read many times over.
    2:19:51 It’s incredible.
    2:19:58 In it, Martin describes a bunch of different patterns of how to build business systems, essentially.
    2:20:01 And active record is a little bit of a footnote in there.
    2:20:02 The pattern is literally called active record.
    2:20:03 You can look it up.
    2:20:03 Nice.
    2:20:04 It’s called active record.
    2:20:07 I wasn’t even creative enough to come up with a name of my own.
    2:20:19 But it allows the creation, the marriage of database and object orientation in a way that a lot of programmers find a little off-putting.
    2:20:27 They don’t actually want to pollute the beautiful object-oriented nature of that kind of programming with SQL.
    2:20:32 There was a rant by Uncle Bob the other day about how SQL is the worst thing ever.
    2:20:32 Blah, blah.
    2:20:34 Okay, fine.
    2:20:35 Whatever.
    2:20:35 I don’t care.
    2:20:37 This is practical.
    2:20:40 We are making crud applications.
    2:20:44 You’re taking things out of an HTML form and you’re sticking them into a damn database.
    2:20:45 It’s not more complicated than that.
    2:20:51 The more abstractions you put in between those two ends of the spectrum, the more you’re just fooling yourself.
    2:20:52 This is what we’re doing.
    2:20:54 We’re talking to SQL databases.
    2:21:06 By the way, quick aside, SQL was one of those things that have endured the onslaught of no SQL databases, structured list data for a better part of a decade, and still reign supreme.
    2:21:08 SQL was a good thing to invest your time and learning.
    2:21:18 Every program I’m working with the web should know SQL to a fair degree, even if they’re working with an ORM, an object relational mapper, as Active Record.
    2:21:19 You still need to understand SQL.
    2:21:26 What Active Record does is not so much try to abstract the SQL away behind a different kind of paradigm.
    2:21:38 It’s just making it less cumbersome to write, making it more amenable to build domain models on top of other domain models in a way since you don’t have to write every damn SQL statement by hand.
    2:21:48 Let’s just say the Active Record is an ORM, which is a layer that makes it intuitive and human interpretable to communicate with a database.
    2:21:54 Even simpler than that, it turns tables into classes and rows into objects.
    2:21:58 I actually think SQL is very easy to understand, most of it.
    2:21:59 You can write some SQL golf, too.
    2:22:01 That’s very hard to understand.
    2:22:06 But SQL at its base, and much of the criticism against SQL was it was written for human consumption.
    2:22:11 It’s actually quite verbose, especially if you’re doing things like inserts over and over again.
    2:22:12 It’s quite verbose.
    2:22:21 Insert into table, parentheses, enumerate every column you want to insert, values, parentheses, every value that fits with that column.
    2:22:26 It gets tedious to write SQL by hand, but it’s actually very humanly readable.
    2:22:30 Active Record just takes that tediousness away.
    2:22:36 It makes it possible to combine things in a way that a humanly describable language just doesn’t.
    2:22:41 It composes things into methods, and you can combine these methods, and you can build structures around them.
    2:22:43 So I don’t dislike SQL.
    2:22:44 I dislike a lot of things in programming.
    2:22:46 I try to get rid of them.
    2:22:47 SQL wasn’t really one of them.
    2:22:51 It was just a sense of, I don’t want to write the same thing over and over again.
    2:22:53 Can we be a little more succinct?
    2:23:02 Can we match it just slightly better to the object orientation without trying to hide away the fact that we’re persisting these objects into a database?
    2:23:05 That’s where I think a lot of ORMs went wrong.
    2:23:13 They tried to live in the pure world of objects, never to consider that those objects had to be consistent into a SQL database.
    2:23:17 And then they came up with a convoluted way of translating back and forth.
    2:23:19 Active Record says, do you know what?
    2:23:20 Just accept it.
    2:23:25 This record, this object, is not going to get saved into some NoSQL database.
    2:23:26 It’s not going to be saved.
    2:23:27 It’s going to be saved into a SQL database.
    2:23:30 So it’s just structured the whole thing around that.
    2:23:31 It’s going to have attributes.
    2:23:34 Those attributes are going to respond to columns in the database.
    2:23:36 It’s not more complicated than that.
    2:23:37 Stop making it so.
    2:23:38 Yeah.
    2:23:42 But as I say, so I personally love SQL because I’m an algorithms person.
    2:23:44 And so I love optimization.
    2:23:57 I love to know how the databases actually work so I can match the SQL queries and the design of the tables such that there is, you know, optimal, squeeze the optimal performance out of the table.
    2:23:58 Okay.
    2:24:01 Based on the actual way that that table is used.
    2:24:07 So, I mean, I think that pushes to the point that, like, there is value in learning and understanding SQL.
    2:24:14 I wonder, because I started looking at Active Record and it looks really awesome.
    2:24:15 Does that make you lazy?
    2:24:20 Not you, but a person that rolls in and starts using Rails.
    2:24:25 You can probably get away with never really learning SQL, right?
    2:24:28 As long as you want to stay at the entry level of competence.
    2:24:41 And this is actually my overarching mission with Rails, is to lower the barrier of entry so far down that someone can start seeing stuff on the browser without basically understanding anything.
    2:24:47 They can run Rails’ new blog, run a couple of generators.
    2:24:48 They have a whole system.
    2:24:49 They don’t understand anything.
    2:24:52 But it’s an invitation to learn more.
    2:25:00 Where I get fired up, and this ties back to the AI discussion, is when that’s turned into this meme that programmers no longer have to be competent.
    2:25:03 They can just, I mean, the AI is going to figure it out.
    2:25:04 The generators is going to figure it out.
    2:25:06 I don’t need to know SQL.
    2:25:08 Active Record is going to abstract it away from me.
    2:25:08 No, no, no.
    2:25:10 Dude, hold up.
    2:25:12 The path here is competence.
    2:25:14 I’m trying to teach you things.
    2:25:16 I understand I can’t teach you everything in five minutes.
    2:25:21 No one who’s ever become good at anything worthwhile could be taught everything in five minutes.
    2:25:27 If you want to be a fully well-rounded web application developer, that takes years.
    2:25:32 But you can actually become somewhat productive in a few days.
    2:25:33 You can have fun in a few days, for sure.
    2:25:36 You can have fun in a few minutes, in a few hours.
    2:25:38 And over time, I can teach you a little more.
    2:25:40 Active Record says, like, yeah, yeah, all right.
    2:25:41 Start to here.
    2:25:45 And then, like, next week, we’ll do a class on SQL.
    2:25:54 And actually, you have this beautiful expression that I love, that a great programming language, like Ruby, has a soft RAM, but the RAM goes to infinity.
    2:25:55 That’s exactly right.
    2:25:58 So, yeah, it’s super accessible, super easy to get started.
    2:25:59 And it never stops.
    2:26:00 Yeah.
    2:26:01 There’s always more to learn.
    2:26:06 This is one of the reasons I’m still having fun programming, that I’m still learning new things.
    2:26:07 I can still incorporate new things.
    2:26:09 The web is deep enough as a domain.
    2:26:11 You’re never going to learn all of it.
    2:26:13 Provide sharp knives.
    2:26:14 This is a good one.
    2:26:21 Because another way of saying this, the opposite way of saying this, the Java way of saying this, do not provide foot guns.
    2:26:21 Right?
    2:26:23 I don’t want to give you sharp knives.
    2:26:24 You’re a child.
    2:26:26 You can’t handle a sharp knife.
    2:26:27 Here’s a dull butter knife.
    2:26:28 Cut your damn steak.
    2:26:29 Right?
    2:26:31 That’s a very frustrating experience.
    2:26:34 You want a sharp knife, even though you might be able to cut yourself.
    2:26:38 I trust humans in the same way that mats trust humans.
    2:26:40 Maybe you cut off a finger.
    2:26:41 All right.
    2:26:42 You’re not going to do that again.
    2:26:44 Thankfully, it was a virtual finger.
    2:26:45 It’s going to grow back out.
    2:26:46 Your competence is going to grow.
    2:26:50 It’s more fun to work with sharp tools.
    2:26:53 And that actually contributes to the ramp that goes to infinity.
    2:26:53 Yes.
    2:26:54 To the learning.
    2:26:57 Value integrated systems.
    2:26:58 We kind of hit on that one.
    2:27:01 Rails is trying to solve the whole problem of the web.
    2:27:02 Not just one little component.
    2:27:06 It’s not leaving you a bunch of pieces you have to put together yourself.
    2:27:07 Progress over stability.
    2:27:08 You know what?
    2:27:10 If there’s one that’s dated, it’s probably that one.
    2:27:17 At this stage, Rails has been incredibly stable over many, many generations.
    2:27:23 The last major release, Rails 8, was basically a no-up upgrade for anyone running Rails 7.
    2:27:27 Rails 7 was almost a no-up upgrade for anyone running Rails 6.
    2:27:36 I used to think it required more churn to get progress, to stay on the leading edge of new stuff.
    2:27:50 And I wrote this before I experienced the indignity of the 2010s in the JavaScript community, where it seemed like stability was not just unvalued, it was actually despised.
    2:27:53 That churn in and of itself was a value we should be pursuing.
    2:27:58 That if you were still working with the same framework three months later, you were an idiot.
    2:28:00 And I saw that and I actually recoiled.
    2:28:03 And if I was going to write the doctrine today, I’d write that differently.
    2:28:05 I wouldn’t say progress over stability.
    2:28:10 Well, maybe it’d be a function of the age of the programming language also.
    2:28:14 Maybe, or a deeper understanding of the problem.
    2:28:21 I think part of what’s so fascinating about technology is that we have this perception that everything constantly moves so fast.
    2:28:22 No, it doesn’t.
    2:28:25 Everything moves at a glacial pace.
    2:28:37 There is occasionally a paradigm shift, like what’s happening with AI right now, like what happened with the introduction of the iPhone in 2007, like what happened with the internet in 95.
    2:28:40 That’s basically the total sum of my career.
    2:28:41 Three things changed.
    2:28:46 Everything else in between was incremental, small improvements.
    2:28:50 You can recognize a Rails application written in 2003.
    2:29:00 I know, because the base camp I wrote back then is still operating, making millions of dollars in ARR, servings and customers on the initial version that was launched back then.
    2:29:03 And it looks like the Rails code, if I squint a little, that I would write today.
    2:29:07 So most things don’t change, even in computing.
    2:29:08 And that’s actually a good thing.
    2:29:15 We saw with the JavaScript ecosystem, what happens when everyone gets just mad about constant churn, things don’t change that often.
    2:29:25 By the way, on that small tangent, you just sort of visibly, verbally changed your mind with the you of 15 years ago.
    2:29:25 Yes.
    2:29:27 That’s interesting.
    2:29:32 Have you noticed yourself changing your mind quite a bit over the years?
    2:29:45 I would say, oh, yes, and then also, oh, no, in the sense that there are absolutely fundamental things, both about human nature, about institutions, about programming, about business that I’ve changed my mind on.
    2:29:51 And then I’ve also had experiences that are almost even more interesting, where I thought I had changed my mind.
    2:29:57 And I tried it a new way, realized why I had the original opinion in the first place, and then gone back to it.
    2:29:59 So it happens both ways.
    2:30:04 An example of the later part, for example, was managers at 37signals.
    2:30:14 For the longest time, I would rail against engineering managers as an unnecessary burden on a small or even medium-sized company.
    2:30:17 And at one point, I actually started doubting myself a little bit.
    2:30:18 I started thinking, like, you know what?
    2:30:26 Maybe all programmers do need a one-on-one therapy session every week with their engineering manager to be a whole individual.
    2:30:35 So we tried that for a couple of years where we hired some very good engineering managers who did engineering management the way you’re supposed to do it, the way it’s done all over the place.
    2:30:38 And after that, I thought, like, no.
    2:30:40 No, I was right.
    2:30:41 This was correct.
    2:30:42 We should not have had managers.
    2:30:47 Not every programmer needs a therapy session with an engineering manager every week.
    2:30:50 We don’t need these endlessly scheduled huddles.
    2:30:52 We don’t need all these meetings.
    2:30:59 We just need to leave people the hell alone to work on problems that they enjoy for long stretches of uninterrupted time.
    2:31:01 That is where happiness is found.
    2:31:03 That’s where productivity is found.
    2:31:06 And if you can get away with it, you absolutely should.
    2:31:10 Engineering management is a necessary evil when that breaks down.
    2:31:12 What’s the case for managers then?
    2:31:18 The case for managers is that if you do have a lot of people, there’s a bunch of work that kind of just crops up.
    2:31:22 The one-on-one is one example that programmers need someone to check in with.
    2:31:30 There’s another idealized version that someone needs to guide the career of juniors, for example, to give them redirecting feedback and all this other stuff.
    2:31:40 And it’s not that in the abstract, I don’t agree with some of those things, but in practice, I’ve found that they often create more problems that they solve.
    2:31:48 And a good example here is, can you get feedback from someone who’s not better at your job than you are?
    2:31:50 You can get some feedback.
    2:31:52 You can get feedback on how you show up at work.
    2:31:54 Are you being courteous to others?
    2:31:56 Are you being a good communicator?
    2:31:59 Okay, yes, but you can’t get feedback on your work, and that’s more important.
    2:32:06 It’s more important that you work under and with someone who’s better at your job than you are if you wish to progress in your career.
    2:32:20 And every single programmer I’ve ever worked with was far more interested in progressing in their career on that metric, getting better at their craft, than they were in picking up pointers that a middle manager could teach them.
    2:32:22 That’s not saying that there isn’t value in it.
    2:32:25 It’s not saying there isn’t value in being a better person or a better communicator.
    2:32:26 Of course, there is all those things.
    2:32:30 But if I have to choose one or the other, I value competence higher.
    2:32:36 Like that’s, again, I caveat this a million times because I know what people sometimes hear.
    2:32:45 They hear the genius asshole is just fine, and that’s great, and you should excuse all sorts of malicious behavior if someone’s just really good at what they do.
    2:32:47 I’m not saying that at all.
    2:32:52 What I am saying is that the history of competence is a history of learning from people who are better than you.
    2:32:57 And that relationship should take precedence over all else.
    2:33:02 And that relationship gets put aside a bit when engineering managers are introduced.
    2:33:07 Now, the funny thing is, this conversation ties back to the earlier things we were talking about.
    2:33:09 Most engineering managers are actually former programmers.
    2:33:11 They at least know programming to some extent.
    2:33:18 But what I’ve seen time and again is that they lose their touch, their feel with it very, very quickly.
    2:33:28 And turn into pointy-haired bosses very, very quickly who are really good at checking for updates, just seeing where we are on Project A here.
    2:33:30 If you need anything or are we ready to deliver to it?
    2:33:31 Okay.
    2:33:32 Yes.
    2:33:33 And also, no.
    2:33:34 Just shut up.
    2:33:36 Leave me the hell alone.
    2:33:38 Let me program, and then I’ll come up for air.
    2:33:45 I’ll talk with other programmers who I can spar with, that we can learn something with, I can turn the problems over with, and we can move forward.
    2:33:59 If you look back on the history of computer industry, all the great innovation that’s happened, it’s all been done by tiny teams with no engineering managers, just full of highly skilled individuals.
    2:34:01 You’ve had John Carmich on here.
    2:34:10 I used to look up to id Software so much, not just because I loved Quake, not just because I loved what they were doing, but because he shared a bit about how the company worked.
    2:34:12 There were no managers.
    2:34:15 Or maybe they had one business guy doing some business stuff, but that was just to get paid.
    2:34:21 Everything else was basically just designers and programmers, and there were about eight of them, and they created goddamn Quake 2.
    2:34:24 So why do you need all these people again?
    2:34:26 Why do you need all these managers again?
    2:34:31 I think, again, at a certain scale, it does break down.
    2:34:38 It’s hard to just have 100,000 programmers running around wild without any product mommies or daddies telling them what to do.
    2:34:39 I understand that.
    2:34:42 And then, even as I say that, I also don’t understand it.
    2:34:49 Because if you look at something like Gmail, for example, there was like a side project done by Boucher at Google at the time.
    2:34:56 So much of the enduring long-term value of even all these huge companies were created by people who didn’t have a goddamn manager.
    2:34:58 And that’s not an accident.
    2:35:00 That’s a direct cause and effect.
    2:35:08 So I’ve turned in some way even more militant over the years against this notion of management, at least for myself and knowing who I am and how I want to work.
    2:35:11 Because the other part of this is I don’t want to be a manager.
    2:35:17 And maybe this is just me projecting the fact that I’m an introvert who don’t like to talk to people in one-on-one calls every week.
    2:35:22 But it also encapsulates how I was able to progress my career.
    2:35:29 I did not really go to the next level with Ruby or otherwise until I had a door I could close and no one could bother me for six hours straight.
    2:35:36 So in companies, probably one of the reasons is it’s very easy to hire managers.
    2:35:42 And managers also delegate responsibility from you.
    2:35:46 So if you just have a bunch of programmers running around, you’re kind of responsible.
    2:35:48 It’s work.
    2:35:54 It’s intellectual work to have to deal with the first principles of every problem that’s going on.
    2:35:57 So managers, you can relax.
    2:35:58 Oh, I’ll be taken care of.
    2:36:04 But they then hire their own managers and it just multiplies and multiplies and multiplies.
    2:36:10 I would love it if some of the great companies we have in the United States,
    2:36:13 if there was like an extra side branch that we could always run.
    2:36:20 Maybe physicists can come up how to split the simulation to where just all the managers are removed.
    2:36:28 Also, just in that branch, just the PR and the comms people also, and even the lawyers, just the engineers.
    2:36:30 And let’s just see.
    2:36:31 And then we merge it back.
    2:36:34 I’ve essentially run that branch at 37 Signals for 20 years.
    2:36:38 And I’ve experimented with forking back on the other side.
    2:36:40 I’ve experimented with having a full-time lawyer on staff.
    2:36:42 I’ve experimented with having engineering managers.
    2:36:50 And I can tell you, life is much better at 50, 60 people when none of those individuals or none of those roles.
    2:36:51 It’s never about the individuals.
    2:36:52 It’s about the roles.
    2:36:55 None of those roles are in your organization full-time.
    2:36:57 Occasionally, you need a manager.
    2:37:00 Occasionally, you need a lawyer.
    2:37:03 I can play the role of manager occasionally.
    2:37:04 Fine.
    2:37:06 And then I can set it back down to zero.
    2:37:09 It’s almost like a cloud service.
    2:37:16 I want a manager service I can call on for seven hours this week, and then I want to take it down to zero for the next three months.
    2:37:23 Yeah, I read, I don’t know if this is still the case, that Basecamp is an LLC and doesn’t have a CFO, like a full-time accountant.
    2:37:27 So what’s actually funny is these days we do have a head of finance.
    2:37:32 We did not for the first 19 years of life, I think.
    2:37:39 We got away with basically just having an accountant do our books in the same way you would do a small ice cream shop,
    2:37:42 except we would, over time, have done hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.
    2:37:44 The scale seemed quirky.
    2:37:50 And at some point, you can also fall in love with your own quirkiness to a degree that isn’t actually healthy.
    2:37:52 And I’ve certainly done that over time.
    2:37:57 And we should have had someone count the beans a little more diligently, a little earlier.
    2:38:04 This was part of a blessing of just being wildly profitable and selling software that can have infinite margins, basically,
    2:38:07 that you kind of can get away with a bunch of stuff that you perhaps shouldn’t.
    2:38:14 What partially taught me this lesson was when we realized we had not been collecting sales tax.
    2:38:17 in different U.S. states where we had nexus.
    2:38:23 And it took us about two years and $5 million in settlements and cleanups to get out of that mess.
    2:38:26 And after that, I went like, OK, fine, we can hire a finance person.
    2:38:26 OK.
    2:38:32 And we now have a wonderful finance person, Ron, who actually ended up replacing something else we used to have.
    2:38:39 We used to have a full-time data analytics person who would do all sorts of insight mining for why are people signing up for this thing.
    2:38:42 We ran that for 10 years and realized, you know what?
    2:38:45 If I can have either a data analytics person or an accountant, I’m picking the accountant.
    2:38:48 I love this so much on so many levels.
    2:38:52 Can we just linger on that advice that you’ve given that small teams are better?
    2:38:58 I think that’s really less, less is more.
    2:39:00 What did you say before worse is better?
    2:39:02 OK, I’m sorry.
    2:39:06 Worse is better on adoption with technology a lot of times.
    2:39:08 And I think it actually comes out of the same thing.
    2:39:15 It comes out of the fact that many of the great breakthroughs are created by not even just tiny teams, but individuals.
    2:39:17 Individuals writing something.
    2:39:22 And an individual writing something on some parameter, what they do is worse.
    2:39:31 Of course, it’s worse when one person has to make something that a huge company have hundreds, if not thousands of developers that they can have work on that problem.
    2:39:36 But in so many other parameters, that worseness is the value.
    2:39:38 That less is the value.
    2:39:43 In Getting Real, which we wrote back in 2006, we talk about this notion of less software.
    2:39:50 When we first got started with Basecamp back in 2004, people would ask us all the time, aren’t you petrified of Microsoft?
    2:39:52 They have so many more resources.
    2:39:54 They have so many more programmers.
    2:40:01 What if they take a liking to your little niche here and they show up and they just throw a thousand programmers at the problem?
    2:40:09 And my answer, perhaps partly because I was like 24, was first of all, no, no care in the world.
    2:40:12 But the real answer was they’re not going to produce the same thing.
    2:40:17 You cannot produce the kind of software that Basecamp is with a team of a thousand people.
    2:40:21 You will build the kind of software that a thousand people builds.
    2:40:24 And that’s not the same thing at all.
    2:40:34 So, so much of the main breakthrough in both end-user systems, but also in open-source systems, in fundamental systems, they’re done by individuals or very small teams.
    2:40:43 Even all these classical histories of Apple has always been like, well, there’s a big organization, but then you had the team that was actually working on the breakthrough.
    2:40:44 It was four people.
    2:40:45 It was eight people.
    2:40:46 It was never 200.
    2:40:51 And the large team seems to slow things down.
    2:40:52 Yes.
    2:40:53 It’s so fascinating.
    2:40:55 And part of it is the manager thing.
    2:40:57 Because humans don’t scale.
    2:41:01 Communication between humans certainly don’t scale.
    2:41:04 You basically get the network cost effect.
    2:41:07 Every time you add a new node, it goes up exponentially.
    2:41:17 This is perhaps the key thing of why I get to be so fond of having no managers at Basecamp because our default team size is two.
    2:41:21 One programmer, one designer, one programmer, one designer, one feature.
    2:41:26 When you’re operating at that level of scale, you don’t need sophistication.
    2:41:30 You don’t need advanced methodologies.
    2:41:33 You don’t need multiple layers of management because you can just do.
    2:41:36 The magic of small teams is that they just do.
    2:41:39 They don’t have to argue because we don’t have to set direction.
    2:41:41 We don’t have to worry about the roadmap.
    2:41:45 We can just sit down and make something and then see if it’s good.
    2:41:48 When you can get away with just making things, you don’t have to plan.
    2:41:58 And if you can get out of planning, you can follow the truth that emerges from the code, from the product, from the thing you’re working on in the moment.
    2:42:08 You know far more about what the great next step is when you’re one step behind rather than if you try 18 months in advance to map out all the steps.
    2:42:11 How do we get from here to very far away?
    2:42:12 You know what?
    2:42:17 That’s difficult to imagine in advance because humans are very poor at that.
    2:42:19 Maybe AI one day will be much better than us.
    2:42:24 But humans can take one foot or put one foot in front of each other.
    2:42:25 That’s not that hard.
    2:42:29 And that allows you to get away with all that sophistication.
    2:42:31 So the process has become much simpler.
    2:42:32 You need far fewer people.
    2:42:33 It compounds.
    2:42:34 You need much less process.
    2:42:37 You need to waste less time in meetings.
    2:42:45 You can just spend these long, glorious days and weeks of uninterrupted time solving real problems you care about and that are valuable.
    2:42:49 And you’re going to find that that’s what the market actually wants.
    2:42:54 No one is buying something because there’s a huge company behind it most of the time.
    2:42:55 They’re buying something because it’s good.
    2:43:02 And the way you get something good is you don’t sit around and have a meal about it.
    2:43:03 You try stuff.
    2:43:04 You build stuff.
    2:43:12 It really is kind of incredible what one person, honestly, one person can do in 100 hours of deep work, of focused work.
    2:43:13 Even less.
    2:43:14 So I’ll tell you this.
    2:43:19 I tracked exactly the number of hours I spend on the first version of Basecamp.
    2:43:24 And I was doing this because at the time I was working on a contract basis for Jason.
    2:43:28 He was paying me, I was going to say $15 an hour.
    2:43:29 That’s what I got paid when we first got started.
    2:43:31 I think he had bumped my pay to a glorious 25.
    2:43:38 But I was billing him and I know that the invoice for the first version of Basecamp was 400 hours.
    2:43:51 That’s what it took for one sole individual in 2004 to create an entire system that has then gone on to gross hundreds of millions of dollars and continues to do extremely well.
    2:43:54 One person, just me, setting up everything.
    2:43:55 Part of that story is Ruby.
    2:43:56 Part of that story is Rails.
    2:44:02 But a lot of it is also just me plus Jason plus Ryan plus Matt.
    2:44:04 That was the entire company at the time.
    2:44:10 And we could create something of sheer sustaining value with such a tiny team.
    2:44:12 Because we were a tiny team, not despite of.
    2:44:14 Small is not a stepping stone.
    2:44:17 This is the other thing that people get into their head.
    2:44:26 This is one of the big topics of rework, that it gave entrepreneurs the permission to embrace being a small team, not as a waypoint.
    2:44:29 Not as like, I’m trying to become a thousand people.
    2:44:31 No, I actually like being a small team.
    2:44:33 Small teams are more fun.
    2:44:37 If you ask almost anyone, I’m sure Toby would say this too.
    2:44:43 Even at his scale, the sheer enjoyment of building something is in the enjoyment of building it with a tiny team.
    2:44:48 Now, you can have impact at a different scale when you have a huge company.
    2:44:49 I fully recognize that.
    2:44:50 And I see the appeal of it.
    2:44:54 But in the actual building of things, it’s always small teams.
    2:44:54 Always.
    2:44:56 How do you protect the small team?
    2:44:59 Basecamp has successfully stayed small.
    2:45:02 There’s been the dragons you had to fight off.
    2:45:05 That like, basically, you make a lot of money.
    2:45:08 There’s a temptation to grow.
    2:45:10 So how do you not grow?
    2:45:12 Don’t take venture capital.
    2:45:13 Okay.
    2:45:14 That is step one.
    2:45:15 Point number one.
    2:45:18 First of all, everybody takes venture capital.
    2:45:20 So you’re already wet.
    2:45:22 I mean, that’s been the answer for the longest time.
    2:45:24 Because the problem isn’t just venture capital.
    2:45:25 It’s other people’s money.
    2:45:30 Once you take other people’s money, completely understandably, they want a return.
    2:45:32 And they would prefer to have the largest return possible.
    2:45:35 Because it’s not them sitting in the code.
    2:45:41 It’s not them getting the daily satisfaction out of building something, chiseling, beautiful code poems out of the editor.
    2:45:43 They don’t get that satisfaction.
    2:45:46 They get the satisfaction, maybe, of seeing something nice put into the world.
    2:45:47 That’s fair.
    2:45:49 But they certainly also get a satisfaction of a higher return.
    2:45:59 And there is this sense, certainly in venture capital, stated in venture capital, that the whole point of you taking the money is to get to a billion dollars or more.
    2:46:04 Now, the path to that usually does go through running established playbooks.
    2:46:10 And then when it comes to software, the enterprise sales playbook is that playbook.
    2:46:15 If you’re doing B2B software, SaaS, you will try to find product market fit.
    2:46:22 And the second you have it, you will abandon your small and medium-sized accounts to chase the big whales with a huge sales force.
    2:46:24 And by then, you’re 1,000 people and life sucks.
    2:46:29 That said, you, I mean, people are just curious about this.
    2:46:32 I’ve gotten a chance to get to know Jeff Bezos.
    2:46:37 He invested in Basecamp, non-controlling.
    2:46:39 He bought secondaries.
    2:46:54 So this was the funny thing is that when investing have these two dual meanings, normally when people think about investing, they think you’re putting in growth capital because you want the business to hire more people, to do more R&Ds, so they can grow bigger.
    2:46:56 Bezos didn’t do that, actually.
    2:47:07 He bought an ownership stake directly from Jason and I, and 100% of the proceeds of that purchase went into my and Jason’s bank account, personal bank account.
    2:47:12 Not a single cent went into the account of the company because we didn’t need the money to grow.
    2:47:29 What we needed, or what we certainly enjoyed, was to some extent maybe the vote of confidence, but more so the security of taking a little bit off the table just that we dared turn down the big bucks from venture capitals.
    2:47:39 It was essentially a vaccine against wanting to take a larger check from people who then wanted to take the company to something enormous that we didn’t want to go with it.
    2:47:52 So Jeff gave Jason and I just enough money that we were comfortable turning all these people down in a way where if it had turned belly up like six months later, we wouldn’t have been kicking ourselves and gone.
    2:47:59 We had something here that was worth millions, and now we have nothing, and I have to worry about rent and groceries again.
    2:48:01 It is a vote of confidence.
    2:48:09 So I wonder from, I’d love to hear Jeff’s side of the story of like why, because he doesn’t need like the money.
    2:48:20 So it’s really, I think it probably is just believing in people and wanting to have cool stuff be created in the world and make money off of it, but not like.
    2:48:40 100% the motivation for Jeff wasn’t a return because he actually has a team, his private office, that runs these investments, who did the calculus on the investment pitch we gave him, which was so ridiculous that Jason and I were laughing our asses off when we were writing down our metrics.
    2:48:46 I was like, no one’s going to pay this, no one is going to give us this multiple of this amount of revenue, and that’s fine.
    2:48:54 I mean, we took the call essentially out of kind of an awe that Jeff Bezos even wanted to look at us and like, do you know what?
    2:48:55 We don’t want venture capital.
    2:49:01 We don’t need other people’s money, but like, let’s just give him a bullshit number that no sane person would actually say yes to.
    2:49:03 And then, I mean, we can each go our own way.
    2:49:05 And his investment team said like, Jeff, no way.
    2:49:08 This makes no economic sense at all.
    2:49:10 They’re asking for way too much money with way too little revenue.
    2:49:12 And Jeff just went like, I don’t care.
    2:49:13 I want to invest in this guy.
    2:49:16 Because to him at the time, it was chump change, right?
    2:49:18 Like, Jason and I each got a few million dollars.
    2:49:27 I mean, whatever, the currency swing between the yen and the dollar that day probably moved 10x that for his network than our investment did.
    2:49:36 Jeff seemed genuinely interested in being around interesting people, interesting companies, helping someone go to distance.
    2:49:47 And I actually look back on that relationship with some degree of regret because I took that vote of confidence for granted in ways that I’m a little bit ashamed of.
    2:49:55 Over the years, I’ve been more critical about some of the things that Amazon had done that I feel now is sort of justified.
    2:50:00 So that’s just sort of part of that processing of it.
    2:50:04 But on the economic sense, he gave us that confidence.
    2:50:05 He gave us the economic confidence.
    2:50:17 But then he also gave us the confidence of a CEO running, perhaps at the time, the most important internet business in the U.S., showing up to our calls, which we would have with him like once a year.
    2:50:20 And basically just going like, yeah, you guys are doing awesome stuff.
    2:50:22 You should just keep doing awesome stuff.
    2:50:23 I read your book.
    2:50:23 It’s awesome.
    2:50:24 You launched this thing.
    2:50:25 It’s awesome.
    2:50:26 You should just do more of that.
    2:50:27 I don’t actually know how to run your business.
    2:50:28 You guys know.
    2:50:32 So the book was out because I’m just from a fan perspective.
    2:50:40 I’m curious about how Jeff Bezos is able to see, because to me, you and Jason are like special humans in the space of tech.
    2:50:43 And the fact that Jeff was able to see that, right?
    2:50:44 How hard is it to see that?
    2:50:46 He certainly saw it very early.
    2:50:49 And I think this is something that Jeff does better than almost anyone else.
    2:51:00 He spots that opportunity so far in advance of anyone else even open their eyes to it, or certainly is willing to bet on it far early and far harder than anyone else is.
    2:51:02 And he’s just right time and again.
    2:51:05 I mean, we were not the only investment that he made.
    2:51:10 And certainly, Amazon had an extremely long-term vision.
    2:51:15 So far longer than I have ever had the gumption to keep.
    2:51:17 Like, I think of myself as a long-term thinker.
    2:51:21 I’m playing a child’s game compared to the game that Jeff is playing.
    2:51:27 Like, when I looked at Amazon’s economics around the dot-com boom and bust, they looked ridiculous.
    2:51:29 Like, they were losing so much money.
    2:51:31 They were so hated by the market.
    2:51:34 They were – no one believed that it was going to turn into what it is.
    2:51:38 But Jeff did in a way that that level of conviction, I really aspire to.
    2:51:46 And I think that’s one of the main things I’ve taken away from that relationship is that you can just believe in yourself.
    2:51:47 To that degree?
    2:51:48 Against those odds?
    2:51:49 Against those odds?
    2:51:50 That’s ridiculous.
    2:51:56 He did that at so many times at our level that it’s pathetic if I’m doubting myself.
    2:51:58 Yeah.
    2:52:05 I think Amazon is one of those companies – I mean, it’s come under a bunch of criticism over the years.
    2:52:14 This is something about humans that I don’t appreciate so much that we take for granted the positive that a thing brings real quick.
    2:52:16 And then we just start criticizing the thing.
    2:52:17 It’s the Wi-Fi and the airplanes.
    2:52:19 That’s exactly it.
    2:52:30 But I think Amazon – there could be a case made that Amazon is one of the greatest companies in the last hundred years.
    2:52:31 Oh, for sure.
    2:52:33 I think it’s an easy case to make.
    2:52:47 What I also think is that the price you pay to be one of the greatest companies in the last hundred years is a lot of detractors, a lot of pushback, a lot of criticism, that this is actually order restored in the universe.
    2:52:52 One of my favorite teachers in all the time I’ve been on the internet is Kathy Sierra.
    2:52:59 I don’t know if you know her work, but she was actually for only a few short years before the cruel internet ran her off.
    2:53:01 But she wrote a blog called Creating Passionate Users.
    2:53:07 And she carved into my brain this notion of balance in the universe.
    2:53:16 If you’re creating something of value that a lot of people love, you must create an equal and opposite force of haters.
    2:53:21 You cannot have people who love what you do without also having people who hate what you do.
    2:53:24 The only escape from that is mediocrity.
    2:53:33 If you are so boring and so uninteresting that no one gives a damn whether you exist or not, yeah, you don’t get the haters, but you also don’t get the impact of people who really enjoy your work.
    2:53:37 And I think Amazon is that just at the massive scale, right?
    2:53:46 They’ve brought so much value and change to technology, to commerce, that they must simply have a black hole size of haters.
    2:53:49 Otherwise, the universe is simply going to tip over.
    2:53:52 Let me ask you about small teams.
    2:53:53 So you mentioned Jason a bunch of times.
    2:53:57 Jason Fried, you have been partners for a long, long time.
    2:54:04 Perhaps it’s fair to say he’s more on the sort of the design business side and you’re like the tech, the engineering wizard.
    2:54:10 How have you guys, over all these years, creating so many amazing products, not murder each other?
    2:54:13 It’s a great story of like partnership.
    2:54:16 What can you say about collaboration?
    2:54:20 What can you say about Jason that you love, that you’ve learned from?
    2:54:22 Why does this work?
    2:54:30 So first, I’ll say we have tried to murder each other several times over the years, but far less, I think, in the last decade.
    2:54:41 In the early days, our product discussions were so fierce that when we were having them in the office and there were other employees around,
    2:54:51 some of them were legitimately worried that the company was about to fall apart because the volume coming out of the room would be so high
    2:54:57 and sound so acrimonious that they were legitimately worried the whole thing was going to fall apart.
    2:55:01 But you know what’s funny is that it never felt like that in the moment.
    2:55:07 It always felt like just a peak vigorous search for something better.
    2:55:20 And that we were able to stomach that level of adversity on the merits of an idea because it was about the idea.
    2:55:25 It wasn’t about the person and it never really got personal.
    2:55:26 Not even never really.
    2:55:27 It didn’t get personal.
    2:55:29 It wasn’t like, Jason, you’re an asshole.
    2:55:32 It was like, Jason, you’re an idiot.
    2:55:35 And you’re an idiot because you’re looking at this problem the wrong way.
    2:55:36 And let me tell you the right way to do it.
    2:55:50 As a small tangent, let me say that some people have said, we’ll probably return to this, that you’re sometimes can have flights of temper on the internet and so on.
    2:55:53 I never take it that way because it is the same kind of ilk.
    2:55:59 Maybe I haven’t seen the right kind of traces of temper, but usually it’s about the idea.
    2:56:01 And it’s just excited, passionate human.
    2:56:04 That’s exactly what I like to think of it as.
    2:56:06 It doesn’t always come across as that.
    2:56:14 And I can see why spectators in particular sometimes would see something that looks like I’m going after the man rather than the ball.
    2:56:17 And I do think I’ve tried to get better at that.
    2:56:27 But in my relationship with Jason, I think it’s worked so well because we have our own distinct areas of competence where we fully trust each other.
    2:56:31 Jason trusts me to make the correct technical decisions.
    2:56:35 I trust him to make the correct design and product direction decisions.
    2:56:41 And then we can overlap and share on the business, on marketing, on writing, on other aspects of it.
    2:56:55 So that’s one thing is that if you’re starting a business with someone where you do exactly the same as they do and you’re constantly contesting who’s the more competent person, I think that’s far more difficult and far more volatile.
    2:57:03 So if you’re starting a business and you’re both programmers and you both work on the same kind of programming, good luck.
    2:57:04 I think that’s hard.
    2:57:15 I tried to pick an easier path working with a designer where I knew that at least half of the time I could just delegate to his experience and competence and say, like, you know what?
    2:57:16 I may have an opinion.
    2:57:21 I have an opinion all the time on design, but I don’t have to win the argument because I trust you.
    2:57:32 Now, occasionally we would have overlaps on business or direction where we’d both feel like we had a strong stake in the game and we both had a claim to competence in that area.
    2:57:39 But then, for whatever reason, we also both had a long-term vision where I would go, do you know what?
    2:57:40 I think we’re wrong here.
    2:57:44 But as I learned from Jeff Bezos, by the way, I’m going to disagree and commit.
    2:57:54 That was one of those early lessons he gave us that was absolutely crucial and perhaps even instrumental in ensuring that Jason and I have been working together for a quarter of a century.
    2:57:57 Disagree and commit is one of the all-time Jeff Bezos greats.
    2:58:01 I’m just surprised that Yoko Ono hasn’t come along.
    2:58:02 You know what I mean?
    2:58:06 Like, there’s so many Yoko’s in this world.
    2:58:12 It might have happened, if not in part because we don’t sit on each other’s lap all the time.
    2:58:16 Most of our careers, we haven’t even lived in the same city.
    2:58:22 Like, I lived in Chicago for a couple of years while we were getting going after I’d moved to the U.S. in 2005.
    2:58:26 But then I moved to Malibu, and then I lived in Spain, and then I lived in Copenhagen.
    2:58:38 And Jason and I, from the foundation of our relationship, learned how to work together in a remarkably efficient way where we didn’t have to actually talk that much.
    2:58:48 On any given week, I’d be surprised if Jason and I spent more than two hours of direct exchange and communication.
    2:58:51 Yeah, sometimes it’s the basic human frictions.
    2:58:58 Yes, I think if you rub up against another person, that person damn well better be your spouse if it’s too much for too long.
    2:58:59 Yeah, but even there.
    2:59:00 Even there.
    2:59:02 COVID has really touched the relationship.
    2:59:03 It’s fascinating to watch.
    2:59:04 It has.
    2:59:12 And I do think that having some separation, which is kind of counterintuitive, because I think a lot of people think the more collaboration you can have, the better.
    2:59:14 The more ideas that can bounce back and forth, the better.
    2:59:19 And both Jason and I, for whatever reason, came to the conclusion early on in careers, absolutely not.
    2:59:21 That’s complete baloney.
    2:59:24 This is why we were huge proponents of remote work.
    2:59:32 This is why I enjoy working in my home office where I can close the door and not see another human for like six hours at the time.
    2:59:34 I don’t want to bounce ideas off you all the time.
    2:59:37 I want to bounce ideas off you occasionally.
    2:59:39 And then I want to go off and implement those ideas.
    2:59:44 There’s way too much bouncing going on and not enough scoring, not enough dunking.
    2:59:50 And I think this is one of the great traps of executive rule.
    2:59:59 Once a founder elevates themselves all the way up to an executive, where what they’re doing is just telling other people what to do, that’s the realm they live in 24-7.
    3:00:01 They just live in the idea realm.
    3:00:04 Oh, I can just tell more people more things what to do, and we can just see it happen.
    3:00:07 If you actually have to be part of implementing that, you slow your horse.
    3:00:09 You think like, you know what?
    3:00:10 I had a good idea last week.
    3:00:13 I’m going to save the rest of my good ideas until next month.
    3:00:24 And there is a temptation for the managers and for the people in the executive layer to do something, which that something usually means a meeting.
    3:00:24 Yes.
    3:00:24 Right.
    3:00:26 So that’s why you say…
    3:00:28 Their job is telling other people what to do.
    3:00:28 Yeah.
    3:00:30 And the meeting.
    3:00:32 So this is one of the big things you’re against.
    3:00:33 Meetings are toxic.
    3:00:34 Yeah.
    3:00:38 And this really, I think, ties into this with Jason Rye.
    3:00:44 If I had to count out the total number of meetings we’ve had in 24 years of collaborations,
    3:00:51 where we, in person, sat in front of each other and discussed a topic, I probably, it’d be less than, whatever, three months at a fan company.
    3:00:54 We just haven’t done that that much.
    3:00:55 We haven’t worn it out.
    3:01:04 One of these funny metaphors that Trump came up with at one point was a human has like a limited number of steps in their life, right?
    3:01:06 Like that’s the longevity argument here.
    3:01:08 You can do so much activity and then you run out.
    3:01:12 There’s some kernel in that idea that can be applied to a relationship.
    3:01:15 There’s some amount of exchange we can have.
    3:01:19 There’s some amount of time we can spend together where you can wear it out.
    3:01:23 Jason and I were diligent about not wearing each other out.
    3:01:29 And I think that is absolutely key to the longevity of the relationship combined with that level of trust.
    3:01:33 And then just combining with the level that we really like the work itself.
    3:01:38 We don’t just like the brainstorming, the says where we just come up with good ideas.
    3:01:39 No, we like to do the ideas.
    3:01:43 And we like to be part of that process directly ourselves.
    3:01:43 I like to program.
    3:01:44 He likes to do design.
    3:01:47 We could go off and do our little things for long stretches of time.
    3:01:48 Okay.
    3:01:50 She’d come together and go like, hey, let’s launch a great product.
    3:02:02 This might sound like I’m asking you to do therapy, but I find myself to sometimes want or long for a meeting because I’m lonely.
    3:02:09 Like remote work, just sitting by yourself, I don’t know.
    3:02:11 It can get really lonely for long stretches of time.
    3:02:13 Let me give you a tip.
    3:02:16 Get a wife.
    3:02:17 Yes.
    3:02:18 God damn it.
    3:02:19 Get a couple of kids.
    3:02:20 All right.
    3:02:23 Family really is the great antidote to loneliness.
    3:02:26 And I mean that as sincerely as I can possibly say it.
    3:02:36 I certainly had exactly that feeling you described early in my career when I was working remotely and I was just like me living in an apartment.
    3:02:42 A total stereotype where for the longest time when I first moved to Chicago, all I had on the floor was a mattress.
    3:02:45 And then I bought this big TV and I didn’t even mount it.
    3:02:47 And then I had a stack of DVDs.
    3:02:53 And I was basically, I was working a lot of time and then I would just go home and I’d do that.
    3:02:55 And it wasn’t great.
    3:02:56 It really wasn’t.
    3:02:58 Like I do think that humans need humans.
    3:03:03 And if you can’t get them at work, and I actually sort of kind of don’t want them at work.
    3:03:05 At least I don’t want them for 40 hours a week.
    3:03:06 That’s not what I prefer.
    3:03:07 You need something else.
    3:03:09 You need other relationships in your life.
    3:03:15 And there is no greater depth of relationship if you can find someone that you actually just want to spend a lot of time with.
    3:03:16 That’s key to it.
    3:03:21 And I think it’s key for both Jason and I that we’ve had families for quite a long time.
    3:03:32 And it grounds you to in a way where the sprint of a startup can get traded in for the marathon of an enduring company.
    3:03:35 And you get settled in a way.
    3:03:37 We talked briefly about sometimes I get fired up.
    3:03:41 I mean, a lot of times, maybe even most of the times I get fired up about topics.
    3:03:46 But I don’t get fired up in the same way now as I used to when I was 24.
    3:03:50 I’m still extremely passionate about ideas and trying to find the right things.
    3:04:03 But having a family, meeting my wife, building a life around that has just mellowed everything out in a completely cliche way.
    3:04:06 But I think it’s actually key.
    3:04:18 I think if we could get more, even younger people not to wait until they were in their late goddamn 30s, early 40s to hitch up with someone, we’d be better off.
    3:04:26 And we’d have more stable business relationships as well because folks would get that nurturing human relation somewhere else.
    3:04:39 Now, when I say all of that, I also accept that there are plenty of great businesses that’s been built over the years that have not been built remote, that have been built by a gang of hooligans sitting in an office for immense hours of time.
    3:04:48 I mean, both John Carmack and Tim Sweeney talked about that in the 90s with their careers, that that was just basically work, sleep, hang out with the guys at the office, right?
    3:04:50 Totally fair.
    3:04:52 That never appealed to me.
    3:04:56 Both Jason and I saw eye to eye on the idea that 40 hours a week.
    3:05:13 Dedicated to work was enough that if we were going to go to distance for not just the five to seven years it takes to build a VC case up to an exit, but for potentially 10 years, 20 years or further, we needed to become whole humans.
    3:05:27 Because only that whole humanness was going to go to distance, which included building up friendships outside of work, having hobbies, finding a mate, and having a family.
    3:05:43 And that entire existence, those legs of the stool, that work is not the only thing in life, is completely related to the fact that we’ve been around for 25 years.
    3:05:49 There’s way too much, especially in America, of false trade-offs.
    3:05:51 Oh, you want to build a successful business?
    3:05:55 Well, you can either have money, enjoyment, family, or health.
    3:05:55 Pick one.
    3:05:56 What?
    3:05:59 Why do we have to give up all of this?
    3:06:09 Now, again, I’m not saying there aren’t moments in life where you can sprint, but I am saying if that sprint turns into a decade, you’re going to pay for it.
    3:06:15 And you’re going to pay for it in ways I’ve seen time and again seem like a very bad trade.
    3:06:18 That even if it works, and by the way, most of the time it does not.
    3:06:20 Most of the time startups go bust.
    3:06:26 Most of the time people spend five, seven years of something that does not pan out, and they don’t get the payout.
    3:06:30 And then they just sit with regret of like, what the fuck happened to my 20s?
    3:06:37 Early on, Jason and I basically made the pact that working together was not going to lead to that kind of regret.
    3:06:44 That we were going to allow ourselves and each other to build a whole life outside of work.
    3:06:53 And the fact that that worked is something I feel is almost like forbidden knowledge.
    3:06:59 Certainly in technology circles in the U.S., it’s something that we’ve tried to champion for 20 years and we still get slacked for.
    3:07:08 Just two days ago, I had another Twitter beef with someone saying like, oh, well, okay, maybe it worked, but you didn’t turn into Atlassian, so you’re a failure.
    3:07:11 Basecamp isn’t Jira, so why are you even bothering?
    3:07:28 And it’s such a fascinating winner-takes-all mentality that unless you dominate everyone else in all the ways you’ve lost, when so much of life is far more open to multiple winners.
    3:07:36 Where we can end up with a business that have made hundreds of millions of dollars over the years and we’ve kept much of that to do whatever we want.
    3:07:54 Certainly, it should be a path for someone to consider choosing rather than the VC unicorn or bust mentality that dominates everything.
    3:08:17 I’d love to ask you about this exchange so you can explain to me the whole saga, but just to link on that a little bit, I think there’s a notion that success for a tech founder is like work for a few years, all out, and then exit, sell your company for hundreds of millions of dollars.
    3:08:35 That’s success, that’s success, when it seems in reality, when you look at who the people like you, like really smart, creative humans, who they actually are and what happiness entails, it actually entails working your whole life a little bit.
    3:08:42 Just like, because you actually love the programming, you love the building, you love the designer, and you don’t want to exit.
    3:08:47 And that’s something you’ve talked about really eloquently about.
    3:08:55 So, like, you actually want to create a life where you’re always doing the building and doing it in a way that’s not completely taking over your life.
    3:08:57 Mojito Island is a mirage.
    3:08:58 It always was.
    3:09:00 There is no retirement for ambitious people.
    3:09:05 There is no just sitting back on the beach and sipping a mojito for what?
    3:09:09 For two weeks before you go damn crazy and want to get back into the action?
    3:09:15 That’s exactly what happens to most people who have the capacity to build those kinds of exits.
    3:09:21 I’ve never seen, I shouldn’t say never, I’ve almost never seen anyone be able to pull that off.
    3:09:24 Yet, so many think that that’s why they’re doing it.
    3:09:26 That’s why they’re sacrificing everything.
    3:09:29 Because once I get to the finish line, I’m golden.
    3:09:30 I’ve won.
    3:09:31 I can retire.
    3:09:31 I can sit back.
    3:09:32 I can just relax.
    3:09:37 And you find out that that kind of relaxation is actually hell.
    3:09:45 It’s hell for creative people to squander their God-given creative juices and capacities.
    3:09:54 I was really lucky to read the book Flow by Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi early on.
    3:09:55 Nice.
    3:09:56 The pronunciations.
    3:09:56 Do you know what?
    3:10:00 I had to practice that with AI over the last few days because I knew I was going to cite him.
    3:10:03 And I’ve butchered his name several times.
    3:10:06 So AI taught me how to pronounce that, at least somewhat correctly.
    3:10:19 But his main work over his career was essentially the concept of flow that came out of a search for understanding happiness.
    3:10:21 Why are some people happy?
    3:10:22 When are they happy?
    3:10:24 And what he learned was quite illuminating.
    3:10:27 He learned that people aren’t happy when they sit on Mojito Island.
    3:10:30 They’re not happy when they’re free of all obligations and responsibilities.
    3:10:40 No, they’re happy in these moments where they’re reaching and stretching their capacities just beyond what they can currently do.
    3:10:44 In those moments of flow, they can forget time and space.
    3:10:51 They can sit in front of the keyboard, program a hard problem, think 20 minutes have passed, and suddenly it’s been three hours.
    3:10:57 They look back upon those moments with the greatest amount of joy, and that is what peak happiness is.
    3:11:07 If you take away the pursuit of those kinds of problems, if you eliminate all the problems from your plate, you’re going to get depressed.
    3:11:09 You are not going to have a good time.
    3:11:13 Now, there are people who can do that, but they’re not the same kind of people who built these kinds of companies.
    3:11:16 So you have to accept the kind of individual you are.
    3:11:20 If you are on this path, don’t bullshit yourself.
    3:11:26 Don’t bullshit yourself into thinking, I’m just going to sacrifice everything, my health, my family, my hobbies, my friends.
    3:11:30 But in 10 years, I’m going to make it all up because in 10 years, I can do it.
    3:11:32 It never works out like that.
    3:11:34 It doesn’t work out on both ends of it.
    3:11:39 It does not work out if you’re successful and you sell your company because you’ll get bored out of your mind up two weeks on retirement.
    3:11:45 It doesn’t work out if the company is a failure and you regret the last 10 years spent for nothing.
    3:11:50 It doesn’t work out if it all works and you stay in the business because it never gets any easier.
    3:11:56 So you’re going to fail on all metrics if you just go, there’s only work and nothing else.
    3:11:58 And I didn’t want that.
    3:12:00 I wanted the happiness of flow.
    3:12:08 I understood that insight was true, but I wanted to do it in a way where I could sustain the journey for 40 or 50 years.
    3:12:21 And there’s another interesting caveat that I’ve heard you say is that if you do exit and you sell your company and you want to stay in, you want to do another company, that’s going to usually not be as fulfilling.
    3:12:22 Yes.
    3:12:24 Because really your first baby, like.
    3:12:28 You can’t do it again or most people can’t do it again.
    3:12:32 A, because their second idea is not going to be as good as the first one.
    3:12:36 It is so rare to capture lightning in the bottle like we have, for example, with Basecamp.
    3:12:40 I know this from experience because I’ve been trying to build a lot of other businesses since.
    3:12:42 And some of them have been moderate successes, even good successes.
    3:12:44 None of them have been Basecamp.
    3:12:47 It’s really difficult to do that twice.
    3:12:50 But founders are arrogant pricks, including myself.
    3:12:54 And we like to think that, you know what, we succeeded in large part because we’re just awesome.
    3:12:56 We’re just so much better than everyone else.
    3:13:03 And in some ways that’s true some of the time, but you can also be really good at something that matters for a hot moment.
    3:13:05 That that door is open.
    3:13:06 The door closes.
    3:13:08 Now, you’re still good at the thing, but it doesn’t matter.
    3:13:09 No one cares.
    3:13:11 There’s that part of it.
    3:13:18 And then there’s the part of it that going back to experience things for the first time only happens the first time.
    3:13:19 You can’t do it again.
    3:13:25 I don’t know if I have it in me to go through the bullshit of the early days again.
    3:13:28 And I say bullshit in the sense of the most endearing sense.
    3:13:29 It’s all great to do it.
    3:13:30 I know too much.
    3:13:39 This is one of the reasons why whenever I’m asked the questions, if you could tell your younger self something that would really, what would you say to your younger self?
    3:13:40 I would fucking not say a thing.
    3:13:48 I would not rob my younger self of all the life experiences that I’ve been blessed with due to the ignorance of how the world works.
    3:13:53 Building up the wisdom about how the world works is a joy.
    3:13:55 And you’ve got to build it one break at a time.
    3:13:59 If you just handed all the results, it’s like, oh, should we watch a movie?
    3:14:00 Here’s how it ends.
    3:14:02 I don’t want to watch the movie now.
    3:14:03 You spoiled it.
    3:14:07 I don’t want you to spoil my business experience.
    3:14:09 I don’t want to spoil any of my ignorance.
    3:14:14 The greatest blessing half the time when you’re starting something new is A, you don’t know how hard it’s going to be.
    3:14:16 B, you don’t know what you don’t know.
    3:14:19 Like the adventure is to pay off.
    3:14:22 The responsibility is to pay off.
    3:14:29 This is something Jordan Peterson has really taught me to articulate this notion that responsibility is actually key to meaning.
    3:14:33 Man’s search for meaning.
    3:14:39 Viktor Frankl talks about this as well, that we can endure any hardship if there is a reason why.
    3:14:51 Now, he talked about it in truly life-altering, concentration camp ways, but you can also apply it at a smaller scale with less criticality of even just your daily life.
    3:14:57 All that hardship in building the original business, that is responsibility you take upon yourself.
    3:15:02 The appeal, the reason you take that on you is in part because you don’t know fully what it entails.
    3:15:09 If you had known up front, if I had known up front how hard it would be, how much frustration there’d be along the way.
    3:15:15 If you just told me that in a narrative before I got started, I would have been like, eh, maybe I should just go get a job.
    3:15:18 You said so many smart things there.
    3:15:28 Just to pick one, it’s funny that sometimes the advice givers, the wisdom givers, have gone through all the bullshit.
    3:15:32 And so there is a degree to which you want to make the mistake.
    3:15:43 So I think I would still give the advice of you want to have a stretch of your life where you work too hard, including at a thing that fails.
    3:15:49 I don’t think you can learn the lessons why that’s a bad idea in any other way except by doing it.
    3:15:52 There is a degree, but of course you don’t.
    3:15:53 I think you should stretch.
    3:15:55 Should you have to stretch for a decade?
    3:15:56 I’m not so sure.
    3:15:58 Yeah, the decade thing is 20s is a special time.
    3:16:00 It’s a lot to trade.
    3:16:01 You don’t get your 20s back.
    3:16:03 You don’t get your 30s back.
    3:16:04 You don’t get your 40s back.
    3:16:10 You really, I would have regretted personally if I hadn’t done the other things I did in my 20s.
    3:16:20 If I hadn’t had the fun I had, if I hadn’t had the friends I had, if I hadn’t built up the hobbies that I did, if I hadn’t started driving race cars at an early enough age to actually get really good at it.
    3:16:25 If I had just gone all in on business because I would have got the same out in the end.
    3:16:39 This is something Derek Sivers really taught me is he has this great essay about how when he went for a bike ride, he could go really hard all out and he could do the ride, I think in whatever, 19 minutes.
    3:16:47 Or he could enjoy the ride, go 5% slower, do the ride in 21 minutes and realize there’s only two minutes apart.
    3:17:02 Either I go all in all the time, there’s nothing else, I’m completely exhausted at the end, or I travel the same distance and I arrive maybe two minutes later, but I got to enjoy the scenery, listen to the birds, smell the flowers.
    3:17:06 That journey is also valuable.
    3:17:15 Now, I say that while accepting and celebrating that if you want to be the best at one thing in the world, no, you have to sacrifice everything.
    3:17:19 You have to be obsessed with just that thing.
    3:17:24 There is no instant of someone who’s the best in the world at something who’s not completely obsessed.
    3:17:26 I didn’t need to be the best at anything.
    3:17:31 This was a blessing, a rare blessing of humility I had early on is like, you know what?
    3:17:33 I am not that smart.
    3:17:34 I’m not that good.
    3:17:35 I’m not that talented.
    3:17:42 I can do interesting things by combining different aspects and elements that I know, but I’m not going to be the best at anything.
    3:17:49 And that released me from this singular obsession with just going, I’m going to be the best programmer in the world.
    3:17:50 And I know I’m not.
    3:17:55 I fucking failed at it twice before I even got how conditionals work.
    3:17:57 I’m not smart enough to be the best at anything.
    3:17:59 I’m not dedicated enough to do that.
    3:18:01 That’s a bit of a blessing.
    3:18:14 And I think as a society, we have to straddle both celebrating peak excellence, which we do all the time, and celebrating the peak intensity of mission it takes to become that.
    3:18:15 And then also going like, do you know what?
    3:18:18 We don’t all need to be Michael Jordan.
    3:18:20 There’s only going to be one of those.
    3:18:26 Well, we should say that there’s certain pursuits where a singular obsession is required.
    3:18:28 Basketball is one of them.
    3:18:30 By the way, probably racing.
    3:18:32 If you want to be the best at F1 in the world.
    3:18:35 If you want to be Senna, you got to be a maniac.
    3:18:44 But I would argue that there’s most disciplines, like programming, allows, if you want to be, quote unquote, the best, whatever that means.
    3:18:47 I think that’s judged at the end of your life.
    3:18:51 And usually, if you look at that path, it’s going to be a nonlinear one.
    3:18:55 You’re not going to look like the life of an Olympic athlete who’s singular focus.
    3:18:59 There’s going to be some acid there in the 20s.
    3:19:03 Or there’s going to be several detours.
    3:19:07 With the true greats, there’s going to be detours.
    3:19:11 And sometimes they’re not going to be Steve Jobs’ acid type of situation.
    3:19:22 They’ll be just different companies you worked for, different careers, or different sort of efforts you allocated your life to.
    3:19:23 But it’s going to be nonlinear.
    3:19:25 It’s not going to be a singular focus.
    3:19:30 The way I think about this sometimes is I want a good bargain on learning.
    3:19:39 I can become in the top 5% of whatever I defined as good at something much, much easier.
    3:19:45 Perhaps it’s 20 times easier, 100 times easier to get into the top 5% than it is to get into the top 0.1%.
    3:19:47 That’s almost impossibly hard to get into that.
    3:19:54 But if I’m content just being in the top 5%, I can be in the top 5% on like five things at once.
    3:19:56 I can get really good at writing.
    3:19:59 I can get decent at driving a race car.
    3:20:01 I can become pretty good at programming.
    3:20:02 I can run a company.
    3:20:03 I can have a family.
    3:20:11 I can do a lot of things at the same time that gives me sort of that variety that almost that way is idealized.
    3:20:12 Karl Marx has this idea.
    3:20:18 I’m going to fish in the morning and hammer in the evening and paint on the weekends, right?
    3:20:23 That there’s a sense for me at least where his diagnosis of alienation was true.
    3:20:26 That just that tunnel vision, there’s just this one thing.
    3:20:32 I’m just going to focus on that gives me a sense of alienation I can’t stomach when I’m really deep on programming.
    3:20:36 And sometimes I go deep for weeks, maybe even in a few cases, months.
    3:20:40 I have to come up for air and I have to go do something else.
    3:20:43 Like, all right, that was programming for this year.
    3:20:44 I’ve done my part.
    3:20:49 I’m going to go off writing or annoy people on the Internet or drive some race cars or do something else.
    3:20:53 And then I can do the programming thing with full intensity again next year.
    3:20:57 Speaking of annoying people on the Internet, you got to explain to me this drama.
    3:21:04 Okay, so what is this guy that said, imagine losing to Jira, but boasting that you have a couple million dollars per year.
    3:21:10 So this had to do with this almost now a meme decision to leave the cloud.
    3:21:13 DHH left the cloud.
    3:21:19 I think that’s literally a meme, but it’s also a fascinating decision.
    3:21:23 Can you talk to the full saga of DHA leaves the cloud?
    3:21:23 Yes.
    3:21:27 Leaving AWS, saving money.
    3:21:29 And I guess the case this person is making now.
    3:21:35 Is that we wasted our time optimizing a business that could have been a hundred times bigger if we’d just gone for the moon.
    3:21:37 And for the moon includes.
    3:21:39 Venture capital.
    3:21:39 But also.
    3:21:42 Some of the things include not caring about cost.
    3:21:47 But also because AGIs are on the corner, you should have been investing into AI, right?
    3:21:48 Is this just part of.
    3:21:48 Sort of.
    3:21:50 I think it’s a bit of a muddy argument.
    3:22:05 But if we just take it at its peak ideal, which I actually think is a reasonable point, is that you can get myopically focused on counting pennies when you should be focused on getting pounds.
    3:22:05 Right?
    3:22:12 That I’ve optimized our spend on infrastructure by getting out of the cloud.
    3:22:21 And that took some time and I could have taken that time and spend it on making more features that would attract more customers or spend even more time with AI or done other things.
    3:22:23 Opportunity cost is real.
    3:22:24 I’m not denying that.
    3:22:29 I’m pushing back on the idea that for a company of our size.
    3:22:38 Saving two million dollars a year on our infrastructure bill, which is about somewhere between half to two thirds.
    3:22:45 Goes directly to the bottom line, which means it’s returned to Jason and I as owners and our employees.
    3:22:59 Part of our profit sharing plan is totally worth doing this idea that costs don’t matter is a very Silicon Valley way of thinking that I can understand at the scale of something maybe.
    3:23:05 But I also actually think it’s aesthetically unpleasing.
    3:23:14 I find an inefficient business as I find an inefficient program full of line noise to just be a splinter in my brain.
    3:23:20 I hate looking at an expense report and just seeing disproportionate waste.
    3:23:29 And when I was looking at our spend at 37 Signals a while back, a few years back, I saw bills that did not pass my smell test.
    3:23:33 I remembered how much we used to spend on infrastructure before the cloud.
    3:23:37 And I saw numbers I could not recognize in proportion to what we needed.
    3:23:40 The fact that computers had gotten so much faster over time.
    3:23:42 Shouldn’t things be getting cheaper?
    3:23:46 Why are we spending more and more money servicing more customers?
    3:23:52 Yes, but with much faster computers, Moore’s law should be lowering the cost.
    3:23:53 And the opposite is happening.
    3:23:54 Why is that happening?
    3:24:04 And that started a journey of unwinding why the cloud isn’t as great as the deal as people like to think that.
    3:24:15 Yeah, can we look at the specifics just for people who don’t know the story and then generalize to what it means about the role of the cloud in the tech business?
    3:24:18 So the specifics is you were using AWS S3?
    3:24:21 We were using AWS for everything.
    3:24:24 Hey.com launched as an entirely cloud app.
    3:24:28 It was completely on AWS for compute, for databases, for all of it.
    3:24:32 We were using all the systems as they’re best prescribed that we should.
    3:24:43 Our total cloud bill for Basecamp, our total spend with AWS was I think $3.2 million or $3.4 million at its peak.
    3:24:44 That’s kind of a lot of money.
    3:24:46 $3.4 million.
    3:24:52 I mean, we have a ton of users and customers, but still, that just struck me as unreasonable.
    3:24:59 And the reason why it was so unreasonable was because I had the pitch for the cloud ringing in my ears.
    3:25:00 Hey, this is going to be faster.
    3:25:02 This is going to be easier.
    3:25:04 This is going to be cheaper.
    3:25:06 Why are you trying to produce your own power?
    3:25:08 Like, do you have your own power plant?
    3:25:09 Why would you do that?
    3:25:12 Leave the computers to the hyperscalers.
    3:25:13 They’re much better at it anyway.
    3:25:16 I actually thought that was a compelling pitch.
    3:25:19 I bought in on that pitch for several years and thought, do you know what?
    3:25:22 I’m done ever owning a server again.
    3:25:24 We’re just going to rent our capacity.
    3:25:32 And Amazon is going to be able to offer us services much cheaper than we could buy them themselves because they’re going to have these economies of scale.
    3:25:39 And I was thinking, Jeff’s word ringing, my competitor’s margin is my opportunity.
    3:25:47 That was something he used to drive Amazon.com with, that if he could just make 2% when the other guy was trying to make 4%, he would end up with all the money.
    3:25:50 And on volume, he would still win.
    3:25:53 So I thought that was the operating ethos for AWS.
    3:25:54 It turns out that’s not true at all.
    3:25:58 AWS, by the way, operates at almost 40% margin.
    3:26:09 So just in that, there’s a clue that competitors are not able to do the competitive thing we like about capitalism, which is to lower costs and so forth.
    3:26:14 So the cloud pitch, in my optics, is fundamentally false.
    3:26:17 It did not get easier, first of all.
    3:26:19 I don’t know if you’ve used AWS recently.
    3:26:21 It is hella complicated.
    3:26:28 If you think Linux is hard, you’ve never tried to set up IAM rules or access parameters or whatever for AWS.
    3:26:29 AWS was always difficult.
    3:26:30 It was always complicated.
    3:26:31 Well, I think it’s gotten even more difficult.
    3:26:32 But yes.
    3:26:38 Now, some of that is it’s difficult because it’s very capable and you have a bunch of capacity on tap.
    3:26:39 And there are reasons.
    3:26:44 I don’t think they’re good enough to justify how complicated the whole jing and majing has become.
    3:26:47 But what’s certainly true is that it’s no longer easier.
    3:26:52 It’s not easier to use AWS than it is to run your own machines,
    3:26:56 which we learned when we pulled out of the cloud and didn’t hire a single extra person.
    3:27:01 Even though we operate all our own hardware, the team stayed exactly the same.
    3:27:02 So you have this three-way pitch, right?
    3:27:04 It’s going to be easier.
    3:27:06 It’s going to be cheaper.
    3:27:07 It certainly wasn’t cheaper.
    3:27:12 We’ve just proved that by cutting our spend on infrastructure by half to two-thirds.
    3:27:14 And it’s going to be faster.
    3:27:15 The last bit was true.
    3:27:20 But way too many people overestimated the value of that speed.
    3:27:26 If you need 1,000 computers online in the next 15 minutes, nothing beats the cloud.
    3:27:28 How would you even procure that?
    3:27:32 If we just need another 20 servers, it’s going to take a week or two
    3:27:37 to get boxes shipped on pallets, delivered to a data center and unwrapped and racked
    3:27:38 and all that stuff, right?
    3:27:40 But how often do we need to do that?
    3:27:45 And how often do we need to do that if buying those servers is way, way cheaper?
    3:27:48 So should we get vastly more compute for the same amount of money?
    3:27:52 Could we just buy more servers and not even care about the fact that we’re not
    3:27:55 hyper-optimized on the compute utility?
    3:27:59 That we don’t have to use things like automatic scaling to figure things out
    3:28:01 because we have to reduce costs?
    3:28:01 Yes, we can.
    3:28:08 So we went through this journey over a realization in early 2023
    3:28:13 when I had finally had enough with our bills.
    3:28:14 I wanted to get rid of them.
    3:28:15 I wanted to spend less money.
    3:28:17 I wanted to keep more of the money ourselves.
    3:28:22 And in just over six months, we moved seven major applications out of the cloud
    3:28:27 in terms of compute, caching, databases that works onto our own servers,
    3:28:32 a glorious, beautiful new fleet bought from the king of,
    3:28:38 servers, Michael Dell, who really, by the way, is another icon of my, I saw he just celebrated
    3:28:39 41 years in business.
    3:28:41 41 years.
    3:28:46 This man has been selling awesome servers that we’ve been using for our entire existence.
    3:28:51 But anyway, these pallets arrive in a couple of weeks and we rack them up and get everything
    3:28:51 going.
    3:28:54 And we were out, at least with the compute part.
    3:29:01 We then had a long multi-year commitment to S3 because the only way to get decent pricing
    3:29:07 in the cloud, by the way, is not to buy on a day-to-day basis, not to rent on a day-to-day basis,
    3:29:10 but to bind yourself up to multi-year contracts.
    3:29:13 With compute, it’s often a year.
    3:29:14 That was in our case.
    3:29:16 And with storage, it was four years.
    3:29:22 We signed a four-year contract to store our petabytes of customer files in the cloud to
    3:29:24 be able to get something just halfway decent affordable.
    3:29:31 So all of these projects came together to the sense that we’re now saving literally millions
    3:29:34 of dollars projected about 10 million over five years.
    3:29:35 It’s always hard.
    3:29:37 How do you do the accounting exactly?
    3:29:39 And TOC, this, that, and the other thing.
    3:29:40 But it’s millions of dollars.
    3:29:42 But it’s not just that.
    3:29:49 It’s also the fact that getting out of the cloud meant returning to more of an original idea
    3:29:50 of the internet.
    3:29:55 That the internet was not designed such that three computers should run everything.
    3:30:00 It was a distributed network such that the individual nodes could disappear and the whole
    3:30:01 thing would still carry on.
    3:30:06 DARPA designed this such that the Russians could take out Washington and they could still
    3:30:07 fight back from New York.
    3:30:12 That the entire communication infrastructure wouldn’t disappear because there was no hub
    3:30:13 and spoke.
    3:30:13 It was a network.
    3:30:17 I always found that an immensely beautiful vision.
    3:30:22 That you could have this glorious internet and no single node was in control of everything.
    3:30:29 And we’ve returned to much more of a single node controlling everything idea with these hyperscalers.
    3:30:36 When US East 1, the main and original region for AWS, goes offline, which has happened more
    3:30:40 than a few times over the years, seemingly a third of the internet is offline.
    3:30:44 That in itself is just an insult to DARPA’s design.
    3:30:48 It doesn’t detract from the fact that what AWS built was marvelous.
    3:30:56 I think the cloud has moved so many things so far forward, especially around virtualization, automation, setup.
    3:31:10 It’s all those giant leaps forward for system administration that’s allowing us now to be able to run things on-prem in a way that smells and feels much like the cloud, just at half the cost or less.
    3:31:15 And with the autonomy and the satisfaction of owning hardware.
    3:31:20 I don’t know what the last time you looked at like an actual server and took it apart and looked inside of.
    3:31:21 These things are gorgeous.
    3:31:34 I mean, I posted a couple of pictures of our racks out in the data center and people always go crazy for them because we’ve gotten so abstracted from what the underlying metal looks like in this cloud age that most people have no idea.
    3:31:38 They have no idea how powerful a modern CPU is.
    3:31:44 They have no idea how much RAM you can fit into a 1U rack.
    3:31:54 Progress in computing has been really exciting, especially, I’d say, in the last four to five years after TSMC, with Apple’s help, really pushed the envelope.
    3:31:59 I mean, we kind of sat still there for a while while Intel was spinning their wheels going nowhere.
    3:32:03 And then TSMC, with Apple propelling them, really moved things forward.
    3:32:05 And now servers are exciting again.
    3:32:12 Like you’re getting jumps year over year in the 15, 20 percent rather than the single digit we were stuck with for a while.
    3:32:23 And that all means that owning your own hardware is a more feasible proposition than it’s ever been, that you need fewer machines to run ever more, and that more people should do it.
    3:32:34 Because as much as I love Jeff and Amazon, like he doesn’t need another, whatever, 40 percent margin on all the tech stuff that I buy to run our business.
    3:32:52 And this is just something I’ve been focused on, both because of the ideology around honoring DARPA’s original design, the practicality of running our own hardware, seeing how fast we can push things with the latest machines, and then saving the money.
    3:32:59 That has all been so enjoyable to do, but also so counterintuitive for a lot of people.
    3:33:05 Because it seemed, I think, for a lot of people in the industry, that like we’d all decided that we were done buying computers.
    3:33:12 That that was something we would just delegate to AWS and Azure and Google Cloud, that we didn’t have to own these things anymore.
    3:33:18 So I think there’s a little bit of whiplash for some people that, oh, I thought we agreed, we were done with that.
    3:33:22 And then along come us and say, ah, do you know what, maybe you should have a computer.
    3:33:25 Is there some pain points to running your own servers?
    3:33:26 Oh, plenty.
    3:33:28 There’s pain points to operating computers of all kind.
    3:33:32 Have you tried just like using a personal computer these days?
    3:33:37 Half the time when my kids or my wife have a problem, I go like, have you tried turning it just off and on again?
    3:33:40 Computers are inherently painful to humans.
    3:33:44 Owning your own computer, though, kind of makes some of that pain worth it.
    3:33:53 There’s a responsibility that comes with actually owning the hardware that, to me, at least, make the burden of operating that hardware seem slightly more enjoyable.
    3:33:58 Now, there are things you have to learn, certainly at our scale, too.
    3:34:01 I mean, we’re not just buying a single computer and plugging it into an Ethernet.
    3:34:04 We have to have racks and racks of them, and you’ve got to set it up with network cabling.
    3:34:06 And there is some specialized expertise in that.
    3:34:11 But it’s not like that expertise is like building nuclear rockets.
    3:34:14 It’s not like it’s not widely distributed.
    3:34:19 Literally, the entire Internet was built on people knowing how to plug in a computer to the Internet, right?
    3:34:21 Oh, Ethernet cable goes here.
    3:34:22 Power cable goes here.
    3:34:23 Let’s boot up Linux.
    3:34:30 That’s how everyone put anything online until 10, 12 years ago when the cloud sort of took over.
    3:34:32 So, the expertise is there and can be rediscovered.
    3:34:35 You, too, can learn how to operate a Linux computer.
    3:34:41 Yeah, and it’s, you know, when you get a bunch of them, there’s a bunch of flashing LEDs, and it’s just so exciting.
    3:34:42 Oh, they’re beautiful.
    3:34:42 Calming.
    3:34:43 Amazing.
    3:34:45 Computers are really fun.
    3:34:48 This is actually something I’ve gotten into even deeper after we moved out of the cloud.
    3:34:56 Now, my next kind of tingle is that if you can move out of the cloud, can you also move out of the data center?
    3:35:12 Personal servers have gotten really scarily quick and efficient, and personal Internet connections rival what we connected data centers with just a decade or two ago.
    3:35:25 So, there’s a whole community around this concept of home lapping, which is essentially installing server hardware in your own apartment, connecting it to the Internet, and exposing that directly to the Internet.
    3:35:35 That harks back to those glorious days of the 90s when people building for the Internet would host the actual website on their actual computer in the closet.
    3:35:38 And I’m pretty fired up about that.
    3:35:39 I’m doing a bunch of experiments.
    3:35:41 I’ve ordered a bunch of home servers from my own apartment.
    3:35:46 I marvel at the fact that I can get a 5 gigabit fiber connection now.
    3:36:03 I think, do you know what, 5 gigabit, that could have taken Basecamp to multiple millions of MRR in the way that back then I ran the whole business on a single box with 2004 technology and probably 100 megabit cable.
    3:36:13 The capacity we have access to, the capacity we have access to, both in terms of compute and connectivity, is something that people haven’t readjusted to.
    3:36:16 And this happens sometimes in technology where progress sneaks up on you.
    3:36:18 This happened with SSDs.
    3:36:19 I love that, by the way.
    3:36:30 We designed so much of our technology and storage approach and database design around spinning metal disks that had certain seek rate properties.
    3:36:33 And then we went to NVMe and SSDs.
    3:36:40 And it took quite a while for people to realize that the systems have to be built fundamentally different now.
    3:36:50 That the difference between memory and disk was now far smaller when you weren’t spinning these metal plates around with a little head that had to read off them.
    3:36:53 You were essentially just dealing with another type of memory.
    3:37:00 I think we’re a little bit in that same phase when it comes to the capacity of new businesses to be launched literally out of your damn bedroom.
    3:37:05 So you can get pretty far with a large user base with home labbing.
    3:37:06 Absolutely.
    3:37:07 That’s exciting.
    3:37:08 That’s like the old school.
    3:37:10 That’s really exciting.
    3:37:16 It’s bringing back the startup in the garage in the literal physical sense of the word.
    3:37:19 Now, some of that is, do we need to?
    3:37:23 You can get relatively cheap cloud capacity if you don’t need very much.
    3:37:24 Hell yes, we need to.
    3:37:31 I mean, the feeling of doing that by yourself, of seeing LED lights in your own home.
    3:37:33 I mean, there’s nothing like that.
    3:37:37 There’s just an aesthetic to it that I am completely in love with and I want to try to push on.
    3:37:39 Now, is that going to be the same thing as getting out of the cloud?
    3:37:40 I’m not sure.
    3:37:42 Our exit out of the cloud was not the exit out of the data center.
    3:37:49 We basically just bought hardware, shipped it to a professionally managed data center that we didn’t even actually touch.
    3:37:58 This is the other misconception people have about moving out of the cloud, that we have a bunch of people who are constantly driving to a data center somewhere to rack new boxes and change dead RAM.
    3:38:01 That’s not how things happen in the modern world at all.
    3:38:07 We have a company called Summit, previously Deft, that is what we call white gloves.
    3:38:09 They just, they work in the data center.
    3:38:16 When we need something like, hey, Deft, can you go down and swap the dead SSD in box number six?
    3:38:17 They do it.
    3:38:21 And what we see is akin to what someone working with the cloud would see.
    3:38:23 You see IP addresses coming online.
    3:38:24 You see drives coming online.
    3:38:30 It’s not that different, but it is a whole heck of a lot cheaper when you are operating at our scale.
    3:38:31 And of course it is.
    3:38:38 Of course it’s cheaper to own things if you need those things for years rather than it is to rent it.
    3:38:44 In no other domain would we confuse those two things that it’s cheaper to own for the long duration than it is to rent.
    3:38:49 There is some gray area like, I’ve gotten a chance to interact with the XAI team a bunch.
    3:38:54 I’m probably going back out there in Memphis to do a big podcast associated with the Grok release.
    3:39:08 And those folks, in order to achieve the speed of building up the cluster and to solve some of the novel aspects that have to do with the GPU, with the training, they have to be a little bit more hands-on.
    3:39:09 It’s a little less white glove.
    3:39:11 Oh, and I love that, right?
    3:39:17 They’re dealing with a frontier problem and they’re dealing with it not by renting a bunch of GPUs at a huge markup from their main competitor.
    3:39:19 They’re going like, no, screw that.
    3:39:23 We’re going to put 100,000 GPUs in our own tents, right?
    3:39:25 And build it in absolute record time.
    3:39:35 So I think if anything, this is testament to the idea that owning hardware can give you an advantage both at the small scale, at the medium scale, and at the pioneer levels of computing.
    3:39:42 By the way, speaking of teams, those are XAI, Tesla, or large companies.
    3:39:47 But all those folks, I don’t know what it is about.
    3:39:54 You said Jeff is really good at finding good people, at seeing strength in people.
    3:39:56 Like Elon is also extremely good.
    3:39:57 I don’t know what that is.
    3:40:04 Actually, I’ve never actually seen, maybe you could speak to that, he’s good at finding greatness.
    3:40:06 I don’t think he’s finding as much as he’s attracting.
    3:40:13 He’s attracting the talent because of the audaciousness of his goals and his mission.
    3:40:15 The clarity by which he states it.
    3:40:19 He doesn’t have to go scour the earth to find the best people.
    3:40:30 The best people come to him because he is, talking about Elon here, one of the singular most invigorating figures in both the same order of the universe here, haters and lovers, right?
    3:40:39 Like he’s having such an impact at such a scale that, of course, he’s got to have literally millions of people think he’s the worst person in the world.
    3:40:42 And he’s also going to have millions of people thinking he’s the greatest gift to humanity.
    3:40:45 Depending on the day, I’m somewhere in between.
    3:40:50 But I’m more on the greatest gift to humanity end of the scale than I’m on the others end of the scale.
    3:41:04 And I think that really inspires people in a way that we’ve almost forgotten that that level of audacity is so rare that when we see it, we don’t fully know how to analyze it.
    3:41:07 We think of Elon as finding great talent, and I’m sure he’s also good at that.
    3:41:13 But I also think that this beacon of the mission, we’re going to fucking Mars.
    3:41:18 We’re going to transform transportation into using electricity.
    3:41:21 We’re going to cover the earth in internet.
    3:41:28 It’s so grand that there are days where I wake up and go like, what the fuck am I doing with these to-do lists?
    3:41:32 Like, Jesus, should I go sign up for something like that?
    3:41:41 That sounds invigorating in a sense I can only imagine like a Viking back in 1050 going like, should we go to Normandy?
    3:41:43 You may die along the way.
    3:41:46 But oh boy, does that sound like a journey and an adventure?
    3:41:47 There’s a few components.
    3:41:53 There’s one definitely this bigger than life mission and really believing it.
    3:41:56 You know, every other sentence is about Mars, like really believing it.
    3:42:00 It doesn’t really matter what, like anybody else, the criticism, anything.
    3:42:04 There’s a very singular, focused, big mission.
    3:42:13 But I think it also has to do with a bunch of the other components, like being able to hire well once the people, once the beacon attracts.
    3:42:20 And I’ve just seen people that don’t necessarily on paper have a resume with a track record.
    3:42:26 I’ve seen really, who now turned out to be like legendary people.
    3:42:35 He basically like tosses them the ball of leadership, sees something in them and says like, you go and gives them the ownership and they run with it.
    3:42:38 And that happens at every scale, that there’s a real meritocracy.
    3:42:52 And like there’s something, there’s just like, you can see the flourishing of human intellect in these meetings, in these group getting together, where they’re like, the energy is palpable.
    3:43:10 It’s like exciting for me to just be around that because I don’t, there’s not many companies I’ve seen that in because when a company becomes successful and larger, it somehow suffocates that energy that I guess you see in startups at the early stages.
    3:43:16 But like, it’s cool to see it at a large company that’s actually able to achieve scale.
    3:43:22 I think part of the secret there is that Elon actually knows things.
    3:43:27 And when you know things, you can evaluate the quality of work products.
    3:43:34 And when you can evaluate the quality of work products, you can very quickly tell who’s full of shit and who will actually take you to Mars.
    3:43:38 And you can fire the people who’s full of shit and you can bet on the people who’ll get us to Mars.
    3:43:47 That capacity to directly evaluate the competency of individuals is actually a little bit rare.
    3:43:52 It’s not widely distributed amongst managers, hiring managers.
    3:44:01 It’s not something you can easily delegate to people who are not very skilled at the work itself.
    3:44:04 And Elon obviously knows a lot about a lot.
    3:44:07 And he can smell who knows stuff for real.
    3:44:19 And this is, at our tiny scale, something I’ve tried to do in the same order, where when we hire programmers, for example, it’s going to be interesting now with AI as a new challenge.
    3:44:29 But up until this point, the main pivot point for getting hired was not your resume, was not the schooling you’ve had, was not your grades, was not your pedigree.
    3:44:33 It was how well you did on two things.
    3:44:38 A, your cover letter, because I can only work with people remotely if they’re good writers.
    3:44:45 So if you can’t pen a proper cover letter and can’t bother to put in the effort to write it specifically for us, you’re out.
    3:44:52 Two, you have to be able to program really well to the degree that I can look at your code and go like, yeah, I want to work with that person.
    3:44:59 Not only I want to work with that person, I want to work on that person’s code when I have to see it again in five years to fix some damn bug.
    3:45:05 So we’re going to give you a programming test that simulates the way we work for real.
    3:45:06 And we’re going to see how you do.
    3:45:12 And I’ve been surprised time and again where I thought for sure this candidate is a shoo-in.
    3:45:13 They sound just right.
    3:45:15 The CV is just right.
    3:45:17 And then you see the code getting churned in.
    3:45:18 I’m like, no way.
    3:45:21 No way are we hiring this person.
    3:45:23 And the other way has been true as well.
    3:45:27 I’ve gone like, I don’t know about this guy or this woman.
    3:45:29 I don’t know.
    3:45:30 And then they turn in their code stuff.
    3:45:34 And I’m like, holy shit, can that person be on my team tomorrow, preferably?
    3:45:39 The capacity to evaluate a work product is a superpower when it comes to hiring.
    3:45:46 There’s a step that I’ve seen Elon do really well, which is be able to show up and say, this can be done simpler.
    3:45:47 Yes.
    3:45:49 But he knows what he’s talking about.
    3:45:57 And then the engineer, because Elon knows enough, the engineer’s first reaction, you can kind of tell.
    3:46:02 It’s almost like rolling your eyes if your parent tells you something.
    3:46:02 Yes.
    3:46:06 This is not, no, we’ve, I’ve been working on this for a month.
    3:46:07 You don’t know.
    3:46:12 But then when you have that conversation a little more, you realize, no, it can be done simpler.
    3:46:13 Find the way.
    3:46:27 So there’s a good, when two engineers are talking, one might not have perfect information, but if, if, if the senior engineer has like good instinct, that’s like been battle earned.
    3:46:33 Then you can say simplify, then you can say simplify, and it actually will result in simplification.
    3:46:49 And I think this is the hallmark of the true greats, that they not only have the insight into what’s required to do the work, but they also have the transcendent vision to go beyond what the engineer would do, the programmer would do.
    3:46:57 I think if we’re looking at these rarities, obviously the myth of Steve Jobs was also this.
    3:47:16 Even though perhaps he was less technical than Elon is in many ways, he had the same capacity to show up to a product team and really challenge them to look harder for the simplification or for making things greater in a way that would garner disbelief from the people who are supposed to do it.
    3:47:17 Like this guy is full of shit.
    3:47:18 Like this is crazy.
    3:47:18 We can never.
    3:47:20 And then two months later it is.
    3:47:25 So there is something of this where you need, you need the vision.
    3:47:35 You need it anchored by the reality of knowing enough about what’s possible, knowing enough about physics, knowing enough about software that you’re not just building bullshit.
    3:47:39 There are plenty of people who can tell a group of engineers, no, just do it faster.
    3:47:40 Like that’s not a skill.
    3:47:55 It’s got to be anchored in something real, but it’s also going to be anchored in, it’s a tired word, but a passion for the outcome to a degree where you get personally insulted if a bad job is done.
    3:47:58 This is what I’ve been writing about lately with Apple.
    3:48:16 They’ve lost that asshole who would show up and tell engineers that what they did was not good enough in ways that would actually perhaps make them feel a little small in the moment, but would spark that zest to really fix it.
    3:48:27 Now they have a logistics person who’s very good at sourcing components and lining up production Gantt charts, but you’re not getting that magic.
    3:48:37 Now, what’s interesting with that whole scenario was I actually thought how well Tim Cook ran things and has run things at Apple for so long that maybe we were wrong.
    3:48:43 Maybe we were wrong about the criticality of Steve Jobs to the whole mission.
    3:48:45 Maybe you could get away with not having it.
    3:48:48 I think the bill was just going to come later.
    3:48:59 And now it has Apple is failing in all these ways that someone who would blow up Steve’s ghost and really exalt him would say, like, see, this is what’s happening now.
    3:49:12 So the other thing here, too, of course, is it’s impossible to divorce like your perception of what’s a critical component of the system and the messy reality of a million different moving parts in the reality of life.
    3:49:17 And you should be skeptical about your own analysis and your own thesis at all time.
    3:49:23 Since you mentioned Apple, have to ask somebody on the Internet submitted the question.
    3:49:27 Does DHH still hate Apple?
    3:49:29 I believe the question is.
    3:49:37 So there was a time when Basecamp went to war with Apple over the 30 percent.
    3:49:40 What’s, can you tell the saga of that battle?
    3:49:41 Yes.
    3:49:58 But first, I’ll tell you how I fell in love with Apple, which was all the way back in also early 2000s when Microsoft was dominating the industry in a way we now see Apple and Google dominate mobile phones.
    3:50:01 Microsoft was just everything when it came to personal computers.
    3:50:04 And I really did not like the Microsoft of the 90s.
    3:50:18 The Microsoft of the 90s was the cutoff, the air supply to Netscape kind of characters, was the Bill Gates sitting defiant in an interview with the DOJ asking about what the definition of what is.
    3:50:22 And just overall unpleasant, I think.
    3:50:25 You can have respect for what was achieved, but I certainly didn’t like it.
    3:50:33 And as we’ve talked about, I came begrudgingly to the PC after Commodore fell apart and I couldn’t continue to use the Amiga.
    3:50:39 So I already had a bit of a bone to pick with PCs just over the fact that I love my Amiga so much.
    3:50:48 But then in the early 2000s, Apple emerged as a credible alternative because they bet the new generation of Macs on Unix underpinnings.
    3:50:52 And that allowed me to escape from Microsoft.
    3:50:56 And suddenly I became one of the biggest boosters of Apple.
    3:51:01 I was in my graduating class at the Copenhagen Business School.
    3:51:06 I started with the first white iBook, first person using Mac.
    3:51:19 And by the time we were done and graduating, I had basically converted half the class to using Apple computers because I would evangelize them so hard and demonstrate them and do all the things that a super fan would do.
    3:51:22 And I continued that work over many years.
    3:51:33 Jason and I actually in, I think, 2004, 2005, did an ad for Apple that they posted on the developer side where we were all about, like, Apple is so integral to everything that we do.
    3:51:35 And we look up to them and we are inspired by them.
    3:51:40 And that love relationship actually continued for a very long time.
    3:51:45 I basically just became a Mac person for 20 years.
    3:51:48 I didn’t even care about looking at PCs.
    3:51:56 It seemed irrelevant to me, whatever Microsoft was doing, which felt like such a relief because in the 90s, I felt like I couldn’t escape Microsoft.
    3:51:58 And suddenly I had found my escape.
    3:52:00 And now I was with Apple and it was glorious.
    3:52:02 And they shared so many of my sensibilities and my aesthetics.
    3:52:04 And they kept pushing the envelope.
    3:52:07 And there was so much to be proud of, so much to look up to.
    3:52:15 And then that sort of started to change with the iPhone, which is weird because the iPhone is what made modern Apple.
    3:52:29 It’s what I lined up in 2007 together with Jason for five hours to stand in the line to buy a first-generation product where Apple staff would clap at you when you walked out of the store.
    3:52:30 I don’t know if you remember that.
    3:52:32 It was a whole ceremony.
    3:52:38 And it was part of that myth and mystique and awe of Apple.
    3:52:41 So I just, I wasn’t in the market for other computers.
    3:52:43 I wasn’t in the market for other computer ideas.
    3:52:46 I thought perhaps I’d be with the Mac until the end of days.
    3:53:06 But as Apple discovered the goldmine it is to operate a toll booth where you don’t have to innovate, where you don’t actually even have to make anything, where you can just take 30% of other people’s business, there was a rot that crept in to the foundation of Apple.
    3:53:10 And that started all the way back from the initial launch of the App Store.
    3:53:18 But I don’t think we saw at the time, I didn’t see at the time, just how critical the mobile phone would become to computing in general.
    3:53:21 I thought when the iPhone came out that like, oh, it’s like a mobile phone.
    3:53:24 I’ve had a mobile phone since the early 90s.
    3:53:25 Well, it wasn’t a mobile phone.
    3:53:26 It was a mobile computer.
    3:53:33 And even more than that, it was the most important computer or it would become the most important computer for most people around the world.
    3:53:39 Which meant that if you like to make software and wanted to sell it to people, you had to go through that computer.
    3:53:51 And if going through that computer meant going through Apple’s toll booth and not just having to ask them permission, which in and of itself was just an indignity.
    3:53:55 When you’re used to the internet, you don’t have to ask anyone permission about anything.
    3:54:00 You buy a domain and you launch a business and if customers show up, boom, you’re a success.
    3:54:02 And if they don’t, well, you’re a failure.
    3:54:07 Now, suddenly, before you could even launch, you’d have to ask Apple for permission.
    3:54:09 That always sat wrong with me.
    3:54:20 But it wasn’t until we launched Hey in 2001 that I saw the full extent of the rot that has snug into Apple’s Apple.
    3:54:29 For people who don’t know and will talk about it, Hey is this amazing email sort of attempt to solve the email problem.
    3:54:30 Yes.
    3:54:38 I like to pitch it as what Gmail would have been with 20 years of lessons applied in a way where they could actually ship.
    3:54:41 Gmail was incredible when it launched in 2004.
    3:54:47 And it still is a great product, but it’s also trapped in its initial success.
    3:54:50 You can’t redesign Gmail today.
    3:54:51 It just has way too many users.
    3:54:56 So if you want fresh thinking on email, I wanted fresh thinking on email.
    3:54:58 I needed to build my own email system.
    3:54:59 And not just my own email client.
    3:55:01 That’s what a lot of people have done over the years.
    3:55:02 They build a client for Gmail.
    3:55:08 But you’re severely constrained if you don’t control the email server as well.
    3:55:12 If you really want to move the ball forward with email, you have to control both the server and the client.
    3:55:15 And that was the audacious mission we set out to do with Hey.
    3:55:18 And that was what’s funny.
    3:55:21 I thought our main obstacle here would be Gmail.
    3:55:24 It’s the 800-pound gorilla in the email space.
    3:55:29 Something like 70% of all email in the U.S. is sent through Gmail.
    3:55:32 I think their world rates are probably in that neighborhood as well.
    3:55:35 They’re just absolutely huge.
    3:55:50 And trying to attack an enormous established competitor like that, who’s so actually still loved by plenty of people, and is free, seems like a suicide mission.
    3:55:57 And it was only a mission we signed up for because we had grown ambitious enough after making Basecamp for 20 years that we thought we could tackle that problem.
    3:56:00 So I thought, hey, this is dumb.
    3:56:05 I would not advise anyone to go head-to-head with Gmail.
    3:56:07 That seems like a suicide mission.
    3:56:10 We’re going to try anyway because, you know what, if we fail, it’s going to be fine.
    3:56:15 We’re just going to build a better email experience for me and Jason and the people at the company and our cat.
    3:56:18 And that will be okay because we can afford to do so.
    3:56:28 But when we got ready to launch, after spending two years building this product, millions of dollars in investment to it, we obviously needed mobile apps.
    3:56:34 You’re not going to be a serious contender with email if you’re not on a mobile phone, and you need to be there with a native client.
    3:56:37 So we had built a great native client for both iOS and for Android.
    3:56:47 And as we were getting ready to launch, we submitted both of them to the app stores, got both of them approved on, I think, Friday afternoon for the iOS app.
    3:56:50 And we then went live on Monday.
    3:56:51 And we were so excited.
    3:56:54 Hey, world, we’ve been working on this new thing.
    3:56:56 I’d love for you to check it out.
    3:57:00 And of course, as with anything, when you launch a new product, there are some bugs.
    3:57:05 So we quickly found a few in the iOS client and submitted a new build to Apple.
    3:57:06 Hey, here’s our bug fixes.
    3:57:07 Can you please update?
    3:57:10 And that’s when all the hell broke loose.
    3:57:16 Not only were they not going to approve our update, they said, oh, wait a minute.
    3:57:20 We gave you permission to be in the app store, but I’m sorry, that was a mistake.
    3:57:28 We see that you’re not using our in-app payment system, which means that we don’t get 30% of your business.
    3:57:31 You will have to rectify that or you can’t be in the app store.
    3:57:35 And first I thought like, well, it got approved already.
    3:57:37 We’re running on the same model.
    3:57:40 We’ve run Basecamp on in the app store for a decade.
    3:57:45 If you’re not signing up through the app and we’re signing up our own customers on our own website,
    3:57:49 and they’re just going to the app store to download their companion app, we’re going to be fine.
    3:57:51 That was the truth, right?
    3:57:57 That was why I never got so fired up about the app store, even as Apple started tightening the screws, was like my business was okay.
    3:57:59 Now, suddenly my business wasn’t okay.
    3:58:09 Apple was willing to destroy hay if we did not agree to give them 30% of all the signups that came through the iOS app.
    3:58:12 And it wasn’t just about the 30%.
    3:58:18 It was also about splitting and not longer having a direct relationship with our customers.
    3:58:22 When you sell an app in the app store, you’re not selling an app to a customer.
    3:58:28 You’re selling an app to inventory at Apple, and then Apple sells an app to that customer.
    3:58:31 That customer has a purchasing relationship with Apple.
    3:58:36 So if you want to give discounts or refunds or whatever, it’s complete hell.
    3:58:41 If you want to easily support multi-platform, that’s complete hell.
    3:58:49 If someone signs up for hay on their iPhone and they want to switch to Android, but that billing relationship, it’s tied to Apple, it’s complete hell.
    3:58:53 For a million reasons, I did not want to hand my business over to Apple.
    3:58:56 I did not want to hand 30% of our revenue over to Apple.
    3:59:01 So we decided to do something that seemingly Apple had never heard before.
    3:59:06 We said, no, we’re not going to add the in-app payment.
    3:59:09 I don’t care if you’re threatening us.
    3:59:10 This is not fair.
    3:59:11 This is not reasonable.
    3:59:15 Please approve.
    3:59:16 And of course they didn’t.
    3:59:17 And it escalated.
    3:59:21 And after a couple of days, we realized, you know what?
    3:59:22 This isn’t a mistake.
    3:59:23 This isn’t going away.
    3:59:27 We’re going to be dead if they go through with this.
    3:59:30 If we’re not going to yield and give them the 30%,
    3:59:32 they’re going to kick us off.
    3:59:40 Unless we make such a racket, such noise, that they will regret it.
    3:59:42 And that’s exactly what then happened.
    3:59:47 We were blessed by the fact that we launched Hay one week before the WWDC,
    3:59:51 their worldwide developer conference, where Apple loves to get up on stage
    3:59:55 and harp on how much they do for developers, how much they love them,
    3:59:58 and why you should bill for their new devices, and so on and so forth.
    4:00:02 And then we also just happened to have a platform on the internet,
    4:00:07 which is very convenient when you need to go to war with a $3 trillion company.
    4:00:10 So I started kicking and screaming.
    4:00:10 Oh, boy.
    4:00:15 And essentially turning it up to 11 in terms of the fight
    4:00:20 and going public with our denial to be in the app store.
    4:00:24 And that turned into a prolonged two-week battle with Apple
    4:00:28 that essentially ended in the best possible outcome we could have gotten
    4:00:31 as David fighting Goliath, which was a bit of a truce.
    4:00:34 We wouldn’t hand 30% over to Apple.
    4:00:37 They wouldn’t kick us out of the app store.
    4:00:44 But we had to build some bullshit dummy account such that the app did something when you downloaded it.
    4:00:49 That was a rule that Phil Schiller seemingly made up on the fly when pressed for the fifth time
    4:00:54 by the media about why we couldn’t be in the app store when a million other companion apps could.
    4:00:58 But we just happened to be able to create so much pain and noise for Apple
    4:01:03 that it was easier for them to just let us be than to keep on fighting.
    4:01:09 What do you think about Tim Sweeney’s victory with Epic over Apple?
    4:01:12 I think it is incredible.
    4:01:19 And the entire developer ecosystem, not just on iOS, but on Android as well,
    4:01:24 owe Epic, Tim Sweeney, and Mark Rain an enormous debt of gratitude
    4:01:32 for taking on the only battle that has ever inflicted a serious wound on Apple
    4:01:35 in this entire sordid campaign of monopoly enforcement,
    4:01:38 and that is Epic’s fight versus them.
    4:01:46 Tim recently revealed that it has cost well over $100 million in legal fees
    4:01:48 to carry on this battle against Apple.
    4:01:53 We, for a hot moment, considered suing Apple when they were threatening to kick us out.
    4:01:56 We shopped the case around with a few law firms.
    4:02:00 And perhaps, of course, they would tell us, you have a good case.
    4:02:02 I mean, they’re trying to sell a product here.
    4:02:05 But they would also tell us it’s going to cost a minimum of $10 million,
    4:02:10 and it’s going to take five to seven years through all the appeals.
    4:02:14 Now, we now learned the actual price tag was 10 times higher, right?
    4:02:15 Epic spent over $100 million.
    4:02:20 It would have destroyed us to take on Apple in the legal realm.
    4:02:22 Only a company like Epic could do it.
    4:02:32 And only a company run by founders like Tim, like Mark, could risk the business in the way that they did.
    4:02:37 The audacity they had to provoke the fight in the first place, which I thought was just incredible.
    4:02:40 And to stick with it for the long term.
    4:02:45 No board would have signed off on this lawsuit to a professional CEO.
    4:02:47 No freaking way.
    4:02:55 So the fact that they’ve been able to beat Apple in also the most hilarious way possible, I think it’s just incredible.
    4:03:01 Because remember, their first victory in the case was actually not much of a victory.
    4:03:04 There were about 11 counts in the trial.
    4:03:07 Apple basically won 10 of them.
    4:03:19 And the judge awarded Epic this one little win that Apple couldn’t tell them not to link out to the Internet to be able to do the payment processing.
    4:03:21 So they won this one little thing.
    4:03:37 And Apple, instead of just taking the 10 out of 11 wins and going, fine, you can have your little links, but all these other rules stay in place, decided to essentially commit criminal contempt of court, as they’ve now been referred to for prosecution.
    4:03:57 And angered the judge to such a degree that the rule of law in the U.S. now is that you can launch an app in the App Store and you don’t have to use in-app payment, but you can have a direct billing relationship with a customer if you just link out to the open Internet when you take the credit card and then hop back into the app.
    4:04:00 And we owe all of that to Tim and Mark.
    4:04:02 We owe all of that to Epic.
    4:04:20 We’re going to launch new apps any minute now, I hope, actually, and next week, that take advantage of this, that revamp the Hey app such that people who download the Hey app off the Apple App Store can sign up in the app and can then use the web to put in their credit card so we don’t have to pay 30%.
    4:04:28 We have a direct billing relationship and such that they can take that subscription to Android, to PCs, whatever, without any hassle.
    4:04:31 And we have Tim and Mark to thank for it.
    4:04:46 Yeah, Tim, I mean, like you said, founders, but also specific kind of founders, because I think maybe you can educate me on this, but Tim is somebody who maintains to this day sort of the unreasonableness of principles.
    4:04:48 That’s what I love.
    4:04:52 I think sometimes maybe even with founders, you can get worn down.
    4:04:53 It’s a large company.
    4:04:53 Yes.
    4:05:00 There’s a lot of smart, quote-unquote, people around you, lawyers, and just whispering in your ear over time, and you’re like, well, just be a reason.
    4:05:02 We’ll be in a, you know, this is a different thing.
    4:05:11 To be the sort of maintain, I mean, Steve Jobs did this, maintain, still are the asshole.
    4:05:12 Yes.
    4:05:17 Who says, no, this whole company, I’ll sink this whole fucking company over this.
    4:05:23 That’s the exact language, basically, I used in our original campaign.
    4:05:27 I will burn this business down before I hand over 30% of it to Apple.
    4:05:37 And that sort of indignation, that actual rage, is something I try to be a little careful about tapping into, because it is a little bit of a volatile compound.
    4:05:39 Because, I mean, I have a bunch of employees.
    4:05:41 We have a bunch of customers.
    4:05:51 It would be pretty sad if the journey of 37 signals after 25 years would come to an end because Apple would burn us down, or I would burn the business down over this fight with Apple.
    4:05:56 But I think you also need that level of conviction to be able to even drive day-to-day decisions.
    4:06:02 One of the other Apple examples, and I know I’m racking on Apple a little bit here, and I don’t actually hate them.
    4:06:03 I really don’t.
    4:06:13 I am tremendously disappointed at the squandered relationship that did not need to be sold away for so little.
    4:06:17 Now, I understand that the App Store toll booth is actually pretty big business.
    4:06:19 It’s multiple billions.
    4:06:26 But Apple is a trillion-dollar company, and I think in the lens of history, this is going to come off as a tremendous mistake.
    4:06:28 And I think it’s already coming off as a tremendous mistake.
    4:06:35 The flop that was the Vision Pro was partly because Apple had pissed off every other developer.
    4:06:43 No one was eager to come build the kind of experiences for their new hardware that would perhaps have made it a success.
    4:06:53 So when you’re on top and you have all the cards, you can dilute yourself into thinking that you can dictate all terms at all times and there are no long-term consequences.
    4:07:00 Apple is learning, finally, the fact that there are long-term consequences and that developers actually are important to Apple’s business.
    4:07:03 And the relationship is not entirely one-sided.
    4:07:06 We don’t owe our existence to Apple and Apple alone.
    4:07:08 We’ve built our own customer bases.
    4:07:11 Apple has been beneficial to the industry.
    4:07:13 I’m glad the iPhone exists.
    4:07:15 Dada, dada.
    4:07:19 It’s not that it doesn’t go both ways, but Apple wants it only one way.
    4:07:22 And I think that is a mistake.
    4:07:25 And it’s a mistake that was avoidable.
    4:07:28 And A, that’s disappointing.
    4:07:29 Certainly disappointing for me.
    4:07:32 I’ve literally spent 20 years evangelizing this shit, right?
    4:07:40 I’ve spent so much money buying Apple hardware, excusing a bunch of things they’ve done over the years.
    4:07:43 And then for what?
    4:07:50 For the fact that you wanted 30% of something that I created in the most unreasonable way possible?
    4:07:52 Couldn’t we have found a better way to do this?
    4:07:55 I think they’re going to get forced to do a better way.
    4:08:03 But did you also have to go through the indignity of having a criminal contempt charge against you, getting referred to prosecution?
    4:08:05 It just seems so beneath Apple.
    4:08:17 But it also seems so in line with what happens to huge companies who are run by, quote-unquote, professional managers rather than founders and unreasonable people.
    4:08:22 Well, we should probably also say that the thing you love about Apple, the great spirit of Apple,
    4:08:24 Apple, I think, still persists.
    4:08:31 And there’s a case to be made that this 30% of things is a slice, a particular slice of a company, not a defining aspect of the company.
    4:08:38 And that Apple is still on top in the hardware that it makes and a lot of things that it makes.
    4:08:49 There could be just a hiccup in a long story of a great company that does a lot of awesome stuff for humanity.
    4:08:51 So, like, Apple is a truly special company.
    4:08:52 We mentioned Amazon.
    4:08:55 There is no company like Apple.
    4:08:56 I agree.
    4:08:59 This is why the disappointment is all greater.
    4:09:08 Because we had such high aspirations and expectations to Apple that they were the shining city on the hill.
    4:09:12 And they were guiding the industry in a million positive ways.
    4:09:29 I think, as we talked about earlier, hardware is exciting again in large part because Apple bought PA Semi and pursued a against all odds mission to get ARM up to the level it is today.
    4:09:31 And we have these incredible M chips now because of it.
    4:09:39 And the design sensibilities that Apple bring to the table are unparalleled.
    4:09:44 No one has taste, certainly at the hardware level, like Apple does.
    4:09:48 Even at the software level, I’d say there’s a lot of taste left in Apple.
    4:09:50 But there’s also some real sour taste now.
    4:09:54 So they have to wash that off first, I think, before they find their wear back.
    4:09:57 But Apple’s been in a morose before.
    4:10:03 I mean, Wozniak and Steve Jobs started this thing in the garage, has great success with the Apple II.
    4:10:09 He hands the company over to a sugar drink salesman who tanks the company into the 90s.
    4:10:25 He doesn’t learn the lesson, spends the next 20 years building up this amazing company, then hands the company over again to a logistics person who presumably had more redeeming qualities than the first guy who put in charge,
    4:10:28 but still ends up leading the company astray.
    4:10:31 Now, this is the norm.
    4:10:34 The norm is the great companies don’t last forever.
    4:10:39 In the long arc of history, almost no company lasts forever.
    4:10:51 There are very few companies around that was here 100 years ago, even fewer 200 years ago, and virtually nothing that are 1,000 years old outside of a handful of Japanese swords makers or something like that.
    4:10:58 So you can get diluted into thinking that something is forever when you’re in the moment and they seem so large.
    4:11:04 Apple could absolutely stumble, and I think they have more reason to stumble now than ever.
    4:11:07 They’re behind on AI, terribly behind.
    4:11:11 Their software quality is faltering in a bunch of ways.
    4:11:26 The competition is catching up on the hardware game, in part because TSMC is not an Apple subsidiary, but a foundry that services AMD and NVIDIA and others who are now able to use the same kind of advanced processes.
    4:11:36 This is something I learned after not looking at PC hardware for the longest time, that holy smokes, AMD actually makes CPUs that are just as fast, if not faster than Apple’s.
    4:11:42 They’re not quite as efficient yet because ARM has some fundamental efficiencies over x86, but they’re still pretty good.
    4:11:45 So Apple should have reason to worry.
    4:11:55 Apple shareholders should have reason to be concerned, not just about all these stumbles, but also by the fact that Apple is run by old people.
    4:12:00 Apple’s board has an average age of, I think, 75.
    4:12:03 Their entire executive team is above 60.
    4:12:07 Now, that sounds horribly ageist.
    4:12:10 And in some ways, it a little bit is.
    4:12:12 In the same way, I’m ageist against myself.
    4:12:14 Like, I’m 45 now.
    4:12:21 And I sort of kind of have to force myself to really get into AI because it is such a paradigm shift.
    4:12:26 And a lot of people, when they reach a certain age, are just happy to stay with what they know.
    4:12:28 They don’t want to go back to being a beginner.
    4:12:30 They don’t want to go back to having to relearn everything.
    4:12:34 And I think, like, this is a little hard for me at 45.
    4:12:36 How the hell do you do that at 75?
    4:12:39 I have to come back to it.
    4:12:40 You mentioned it earlier.
    4:12:42 You’re a parent.
    4:12:47 Can you speak to the impact that becoming a father has had on your life?
    4:12:53 I think what’s funny about fatherhood is that, for me, I wasn’t even sure it’s something I wanted.
    4:13:05 It took meeting the right woman and letting her convince me that this was the right idea before we even got started.
    4:13:13 I didn’t have starting my own family on the list of priorities in my late 20s or even early 30s.
    4:13:22 It was really the impetus of meeting my wife, Jamie, and her telling me, this is what I want.
    4:13:24 I want to have a family.
    4:13:25 I want to get married.
    4:13:26 I want to have kids.
    4:13:28 I want to have three.
    4:13:33 And me going for a second, like, whoa, whoa, whoa.
    4:13:35 And then, eh.
    4:13:37 All right.
    4:13:38 Let’s do it.
    4:13:46 And I think that’s the kind of happy accident where some parts of my life have been very driven,
    4:13:52 where I knew exactly what I wanted and how to push forward to it and what the payoff was going to be.
    4:14:03 But when it comes to having a family, that always felt like a very fuzzy, abstract idea that, sure, someday, maybe.
    4:14:09 And then it became very concrete because I met a woman who knew what she wanted.
    4:14:25 And looking back on it now, it almost seems crazy, like there’s this fork in the road of reality where if that hadn’t happened and I had been sitting here now,
    4:14:39 not being a father, not having a father, not having a family, the level of regret, knowing what I know now about the joys of having that family would have been existential.
    4:14:44 That would have been, I don’t know if they would have been devastating.
    4:14:50 I think men have a little bit of a longer window to pursue these things than women do.
    4:14:53 There are just certain biological facts.
    4:15:08 things that ending up with the family I have now, ending up with my three boys have been just a transformative experience in the sense that here’s something that turned out to be the most important thing.
    4:15:15 And it was an open secret, not even an open secret, it was an open truth through all of history.
    4:15:20 You listen to anyone who’s ever had children, they will all say my children are the most important to me.
    4:15:25 Yet somehow that wisdom couldn’t sink in until you were in the situation yourself.
    4:15:27 I find those truths fascinating.
    4:15:35 When you can’t actually relay them with words, I can tell you, hey, Lex, what are you doing?
    4:15:39 Get a wife, make some kids, get a move on it.
    4:15:40 And these are just words.
    4:15:44 They’re not communicating the gravity of what it actually feels to go through the experience.
    4:15:48 And you can’t really learn it without going through it.
    4:15:51 Now, of course, you can be influenced and whatever.
    4:15:56 We can all help contribute and little sparks and little seeds can grow in your mind about it.
    4:15:57 But it still has to happen.
    4:16:08 And now that I am in this situation and just the sheer joy on a daily basis where you think your level of…
    4:16:11 Life satisfaction is on a scale of 1 to 10.
    4:16:22 And then the satisfaction of seeing your children understand something, accomplish something, learn something, do something, just be.
    4:16:24 Just goes like, oh, my God.
    4:16:26 The scale doesn’t go from 1 to 10.
    4:16:27 It goes from 1 to 100.
    4:16:32 And I’ve been playing down here in the 1 to 10 range all this time.
    4:16:35 And there’s a 1 to 100.
    4:16:43 That has been humbling in a way that is impactful in and of itself.
    4:16:50 This whole idea that I thought I had a fair understanding of the boundaries of life in my early 30s.
    4:16:51 Like, what is this about?
    4:16:54 I mean, I’ve been on this earth long enough now here to know something.
    4:16:56 And he goes, I don’t know.
    4:16:57 I did not know.
    4:17:01 I did not know that the scale was much, much broader.
    4:17:16 And I’ve often talked about the joys of having kids and just seeing your own DNA, which is remarkable to me because literally that’s been the pursuit of humans since the dawn of time.
    4:17:27 I am here today because, whatever, 30,000 years ago, some Neanderthal had the same realization that I should procreate and I should continue my bloodline.
    4:17:30 And that all amounts to me sitting here now.
    4:17:37 But it didn’t become a practical reality to me before meeting the right woman.
    4:17:48 And I think that that’s sometimes not part of the conversation enough, that there’s something broken at the moment about how people pair up in the Western world.
    4:18:04 And it’s at the source of why we’re not having enough children, because there’s not enough couples, there’s not enough marriage, there’s not a lot of these, there’s not enough of all these traditional values that even 50, 60, 70 years ago was just taken for granted.
    4:18:11 We’re in this grand experiment of what happens if we just remove a bunch of institutions.
    4:18:17 What happens if we no longer value marriage as something to aspire to?
    4:18:27 What happens if parenthood is now seen in some camps as almost something like weird or against your own self-expression?
    4:18:33 It’s a grand experiment that I’m kind of curious how it turns out.
    4:18:37 I’d prefer to watch it as a movie, like the Children of Men, of like, that was a good show.
    4:18:53 I kind of wish that was reality, but we’re seeing that reality play out while I’m sitting here in a very traditional two-parent loving household with three children and going, this is now at the top.
    4:18:55 I’ve done a lot of things in my life.
    4:19:00 I’ve built software, I’ve built companies, I’ve raced cars, I’ve done all sorts of things.
    4:19:05 And I would trade all of it in a heartbeat for my kids.
    4:19:15 That’s just a really fascinating human experience, that the depth of that bond is something you can’t appreciate before you have it.
    4:19:25 But I also think there is a role to play to talk it up, because we’re being bombarded constantly with reasons.
    4:19:26 Why not to?
    4:19:28 Oh, it’s too expensive.
    4:19:32 Well, you could get divorced and then you might lose half.
    4:19:40 There’s all these voices constantly articulating the case against marriage, the case against having children.
    4:19:58 That those of us who’ve chosen to do the traditional thing, to get married and to have children, have an obligation to kind of talk it up a little bit, which would have seemed ridiculous again 50 years ago that you’d have to talk up something so fundamental as that.
    4:20:06 But I have become kind of obligated in that sense to do just that, to talk it up, to say, do you know what?
    4:20:08 You can look at everything that I’ve done.
    4:20:19 And if you like some of those parts, realize that to me, in this situation, the kids, the family, the wife is more important than all of it.
    4:20:22 And it sounds like a cliche because you’ve heard it a thousand times before.
    4:20:28 And by becoming a cliche, maybe you start believing it’s not true, that it’s just something people say.
    4:20:31 But it is reality.
    4:20:39 I know almost no parents that I have personal relationships with that don’t consider their children to be the most important thing in their life.
    4:20:41 So there’s a lot of interesting things you said.
    4:21:01 So one, it does seem to be, I know a lot of parents, perhaps more interestingly, I know a lot of super successful people who are parents who really love their kids and who say that the kids even help them to be more successful.
    4:21:22 Now, the interesting thing, speaking to what you’re saying, is it does seem for us humans, it’s easier to articulate the negatives because they’re sort of concrete, pragmatic, you know, it costs more, it takes some time, you know, they can be crying all over the place, they’re, you know, tiny narcissists running around or whatever.
    4:21:23 Which is all true.
    4:21:25 Yeah, pooping everywhere, that kind of stuff.
    4:21:39 But to articulate the thing you were speaking to, there’s this little creature that you love more than anything you’ve ever loved in your life, it’s hard to convert that into words, you have to really experience it.
    4:21:54 But I believe it, and I want to experience that, but I believe, because just from a scientific method, have seen a lot of people who are not, honestly, not very capable of love, fall completely in love with their kids.
    4:21:55 Yes.
    4:22:01 Like, you know, very sort of, let’s just call it what it is, engineers that are very, like, beep, boop, bop.
    4:22:02 Yes.
    4:22:04 They just fall in love.
    4:22:15 And it’s like, all right, people who, just like you said, they don’t really want, they don’t really care or don’t really think about having kids, that kind of stuff, once they do, it changes everything.
    4:22:18 So, you know, but it’s hard to convert into words.
    4:22:26 One of the reasons I think it’s also difficult is, I mean, I like kids, not that I actively dislike them.
    4:22:31 But when I was around other people’s kids, I didn’t have an emotional reaction.
    4:22:33 Some women have, right?
    4:22:37 They see a baby and they go, oh, I never had any emotion of that.
    4:22:39 I mean, I could appreciate, I’m glad for you that you have children.
    4:22:41 It did not provoke anything in me.
    4:22:48 The emotions that are provoked in me when I look at my own children, this doesn’t exist in the same universe.
    4:22:55 So, you don’t have something, you don’t have a complete parallel, or at least a lot of men, or at least me, I didn’t have sort of a framework to put it into.
    4:22:57 What would it be like to have my own child?
    4:23:03 And then you experience that you just, it’s like the, and it happens so quickly, too.
    4:23:04 This is what I found fascinating.
    4:23:16 It happens before that little human is even able to return any words to you, that the love you develop to an infant happens quite quickly.
    4:23:18 Not necessarily immediately.
    4:23:19 I don’t know.
    4:23:21 Different people have different experiences.
    4:23:23 But it took me a little bit.
    4:23:27 But then once it hit, it just hit like kick of a horse.
    4:23:36 I love that it’s also just such a universal experience that you can be the most successful person in the world.
    4:23:37 You can be the poorest person in the world.
    4:23:38 You can be somewhere in the middle.
    4:23:47 And we share this experience that being a parent, for most of them, turns out to be the most important thing in their life.
    4:23:53 But, you know, it is really nice to do that kind of experience with the right partner.
    4:23:58 But I think because I’m such an empath, the cost of having the wrong partner is high for me.
    4:24:07 But then I also, like, realized, man, I have a friend of mine who’s divorced happily, and he still loves the shit out of his kids.
    4:24:08 And it’s still beautiful.
    4:24:11 It’s a mess, but there’s still, all of that love is still there.
    4:24:14 And it’s, you know, you just have to make it work.
    4:24:18 It’s just that, I don’t know, that kind of, like, divorce would destroy me.
    4:24:20 You should listen to The School of Life.
    4:24:24 He has this great bit on YouTube.
    4:24:26 You will marry the wrong person.
    4:24:34 If you accept up front that you will marry the wrong person, that every potential person you can marry is going to be the wrong person in some dimension.
    4:24:36 They’re going to annoy you.
    4:24:40 They’re going to be not what you hoped in certain dimensions.
    4:24:49 The romantic ideal that everything is just perfect all the time is not very conducive to the reality of hitching up and making babies.
    4:25:06 Because I think, as you just accounted, even when it turns to shit, I find that most of the people I personally know, where things have fallen apart and have turned to shit, never in a million years would they go, like, I regret it.
    4:25:12 I would rather my children did not exist because a relationship turned sour.
    4:25:14 I mean, I think you should try very hard.
    4:25:20 And I think this is also one of those things where we didn’t fully understand those fences.
    4:25:27 And when we pulled them up and celebrated how easy it is to get divorced, for example, that that wasn’t going to have some negative consequences.
    4:25:29 I’m not saying you shouldn’t have divorces.
    4:25:32 I’m not saying return to times past.
    4:25:47 I’m saying, though, that civilization over thousands of years developed certain technologies for ensuring the continuation of its own institutions and its own life that perhaps we didn’t fully appreciate.
    4:25:56 I mean, again, this is something Jordan Peterson and others are far more articulate to speak about and that I’ve learned a lot to just analyze my own situation.
    4:26:07 Why is it that this incredible burden it is to be responsible for someone else’s life that you brought into this world is also the most rewarding part of existence?
    4:26:09 That’s just curious.
    4:26:21 Before I heard Peterson articulate the value of taking on the greatest burden you know how to carry, I always thought about burdens as a negative things.
    4:26:23 Why would I want the burden of a child?
    4:26:25 I might screw it up.
    4:26:26 I might be a bad parent.
    4:26:28 They might have bad outcomes.
    4:26:29 All this stuff, right?
    4:26:36 All the reasons why you shouldn’t and so few voices articulating why you should.
    4:26:43 Yeah, but I should also add on top of that thing you mentioned currently, perhaps in the West, the matchmaking process.
    4:26:44 It’s broken.
    4:26:46 It’s broken and technology made it worse.
    4:26:47 It’s fascinating.
    4:26:50 This whole thing that that hasn’t been solved.
    4:26:59 So hiring great teams, that’s probably been solved the best out of matchmaking, finding great people to hire.
    4:26:59 Right.
    4:27:02 Second, finding great friends.
    4:27:05 That’s like, that’s also hasn’t been solved.
    4:27:06 And it’s breaking down.
    4:27:07 It’s breaking down.
    4:27:09 And third is matchmaking for like relationships.
    4:27:11 That’s like the worst.
    4:27:13 And in fact, technology made it even worse.
    4:27:14 Yes.
    4:27:14 It’s fascinating.
    4:27:15 It is.
    4:27:22 It’s a great example, again, of how all the greatest intentions still led us straight to hell.
    4:27:34 I really enjoy Louise Perry’s analysis of the sexual revolution not being an unqualified good, which was something I hadn’t thought about at all before she articulated it.
    4:27:42 That, of course, women should be able to have freedom until termination and abortions and all of these things.
    4:27:46 And Louise Perry is not arguing against that either, of course.
    4:27:54 But there are second order effects that we don’t appreciate at the time and we may not have ready-made solutions for.
    4:27:55 And that’s just interesting.
    4:28:01 You make life better in a million different ways and somehow we end up more miserable.
    4:28:02 Why is that?
    4:28:08 Why is it that humans find meaning in hardship?
    4:28:17 And I think some of that is that it’s a difficult question to answer through science.
    4:28:28 And again, Peterson articulates well this idea that you have to find some of it through art, some of it through authors, some of it through different…
    4:28:35 I was just about to say modes of knowing before I stop myself because that sounds like woo bullshit.
    4:28:38 But there are different ways to…
    4:28:48 Acquire those deep lessons that sort of paper is not going to tell you.
    4:28:54 I mean, this is really the point also applies to religion, for example.
    4:29:00 If you remove from society the softer religion, you better have a good replacement.
    4:29:05 And we’ve had a bunch of bad replacements, especially over the last few decades.
    4:29:10 Religion is one of those things I’ve struggled with a lot because I’m not religious.
    4:29:26 Having an operating system like that brings, not just at the individual level, but rather at a societal level.
    4:29:29 And it’s not clear at all what the answer is.
    4:29:33 I think we’ve tried a lot of dead ends when it came to replacements.
    4:29:44 And people have been filling that void in a million different ways that seem worse than all the religions, despite their faults in a myriad of ways, have been able to deliver.
    4:29:44 Yeah.
    4:29:48 Religion is like the cobalt code.
    4:29:49 It’s just…
    4:29:49 Yes.
    4:29:55 It’s the institutions where we don’t fully understand the rules and why they’re there and what’s going to happen if we remove them.
    4:30:00 Some of them, seems obvious to me, are just bullshit of the time.
    4:30:06 Oh, you shouldn’t eat whatever shellfish because in that region of the world there was something, something, something.
    4:30:06 Okay, fine.
    4:30:13 But there’s a bunch of other things that are pivotal to keeping society functioning for the long term.
    4:30:15 And we don’t fully understand which is which.
    4:30:19 What’s the bullshit and what’s the load-bearing pillars of society?
    4:30:24 Can you speak to the hit on productivity that kids have?
    4:30:29 Did they increase their productivity, decrease it, or is that even the wrong question to ask?
    4:30:37 I think it’s one of the reasons why ambitious people are often afraid of having children because they think I have so much more to do and I barely have enough time now.
    4:30:45 How would I possibly be able to accomplish the things I want to accomplish if I add another human into the mix?
    4:30:53 Now, A, we’ve always worked 40 hours a week, not 80 or 100 or 120.
    4:30:54 I think that’s very beneficial.
    4:31:01 B, kids don’t exist in this vacuum of just them alone being entered into your life.
    4:31:03 Hopefully, there’s a partner.
    4:31:18 And in my life, I’m married to a wonderful woman who decided to stop working her corporate job when we got together and have been able to carry a huge part of that responsibility.
    4:31:38 And I think that’s exactly how it often gets presented, especially from a feminist perspective, that caring for your own children is some sort of unpaid labor that has to be compensated for in some specific way beyond the compensation of what?
    4:31:43 Bringing life into this world, raising wonderful humans?
    4:31:54 There’s something screwy about that analysis that I actually think the modern trad movement is a reply against.
    4:31:56 Whether they have all the answers, I’m certainly not sure of either.
    4:32:12 But there’s something that’s just not right in the analysis that children are a burden and that if a woman chooses to stay at home with the kids, that that’s some sort of failure mode of feminist ambition.
    4:32:15 I think that’s actually a complete dead end.
    4:32:18 Now, depends on different people, different circumstances.
    4:32:33 I can just speak to my life, being married to a wonderful woman who have decided to be home with the kids, at least at their early age, and taking on a lot of those responsibilities.
    4:32:45 Now, it doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of ways that I have to be part of that and have to chip in, but it’s allowed me to continue to work the 40 hours a week that I’ve always worked.
    4:32:48 But it’s made the 40 hours more strict.
    4:32:57 I have a schedule where I wake up, whatever, 6.30, and we have to get out of the door a little before 8.
    4:33:15 I usually have to play at least one or two rounds of Fortnite with my youngest, sometimes middle child, then take the kids to school, get in, start work at, I don’t know, 8.30, 9.00, then work until 5.30, sometimes 6.00, but then it’s dinner.
    4:33:22 And I have to be there for that, and then I have to read to the kids, and by the time that’s done, I don’t want to go back to work.
    4:33:30 So my work time really is 9.00 to 5.00, 9.00 to 6.00, depending of whatever is going on.
    4:33:45 Sometimes there’s emergencies, and you have to attend to them, but it’s made it more structured, and I found some benefit in that, and I found some productivity in that, that I can’t goof around quite as much, that the day will end at around 5.36.
    4:33:50 That’s just, if I didn’t accomplish what I wanted to do today, if I get to that time, it’s done.
    4:33:51 I’m over.
    4:34:00 I have to try again tomorrow, whereas before having a family and before having kids, I could just, like, not do it and just make it up in the evening.
    4:34:06 So in that way, it’s made me more structured, but it hasn’t really changed my volume of work all that much.
    4:34:10 I still work about the same amount of hours, and that’s, by the way, enough.
    4:34:18 This is one of the key points we make in It Doesn’t Have to be Crazy at Work, the latest book we wrote, is that there’s enough time.
    4:34:22 40 hours a week is actually a ton if you don’t piss it away.
    4:34:24 Most people do piss it away.
    4:34:25 They piss it away in meetings.
    4:34:41 They piss it away on just stuff that doesn’t matter when even three hours, four hours of concentrated, uninterrupted time every day would move to goals they truly care about way down the field.
    4:34:47 I think kids do make you more productive in that way for people who need it, especially people like me.
    4:34:49 They create their urgency.
    4:35:05 Like, if you have to be done by five, it’s maybe a counterintuitive notion, but for people like me who like to work, you can really fill the day with fluff of work.
    4:35:15 And if you have to be done by five, you’re going to have to do the deep work and get it done, like really focused, singular work.
    4:35:15 Yes.
    4:35:18 And then you just kind of cut off all the bullshit.
    4:35:23 It keeps you honest because you can squander one day, you can squander two days.
    4:35:27 But if I squander a whole week, I feel terrible.
    4:35:39 Now, that’s just some drive I have in me where I feel content and full of meaning if I actually do stuff that matters, if I can look back upon the week and go like, that was a nice week.
    4:35:40 Really, we moved forward.
    4:35:42 Maybe we didn’t get done, but we moved forward and everything got better.
    4:35:45 And I think kids really help just.
    4:35:47 Time box things in that way.
    4:35:58 And a lot of people need that because I find just so much of the celebration of overwork to be so tiresome.
    4:36:02 Oh, I work 60 hours or 80 hours, 100 hours a week.
    4:36:04 And just like, first of all, no, you don’t.
    4:36:06 No, you don’t.
    4:36:12 Like those 80 hours are full of all sorts of fluff that you label work, but that I would laugh at.
    4:36:18 And that most people laugh at that you would laugh at if you actually did the analysis of where’s that time going.
    4:36:26 Most of the important stuff that have to be done is done in these uninterrupted chunks of two hours here or four hours there or five hours there.
    4:36:29 The hard part is making sure you get them in the whole piece.
    4:36:33 So don’t give me don’t give me that.
    4:36:33 There’s time enough.
    4:36:40 And also, what’s so important that it ranks above continuing your lineage?
    4:36:53 I think there’s just some ancient honor in the fact that, again, this DNA that’s sitting on this chair traveled 30,000 years to get here.
    4:36:56 And you’re going to squander all that away just so you can send a few more emails?
    4:37:04 There is something that’s also hard to convert into words of just the kind of fun you can have just playing with your kids.
    4:37:10 I don’t know what that, on the surface, it’s like I could have that kind of fun just playing video games by myself.
    4:37:13 But no, it’s like there’s something magical about it, right?
    4:37:20 I have a thousand hours logged in Fortnite since 19, I think.
    4:37:22 All of it with my kids.
    4:37:24 I’d never be playing Fortnite.
    4:37:26 Well, I don’t know if I never would be.
    4:37:29 I wouldn’t be playing a thousand hours of Fortnite if it wasn’t for my kids.
    4:37:34 The enjoyment for me is to do something with them that I also happen to enjoy.
    4:37:36 I really love Fortnite.
    4:37:38 It’s a phenomenal game.
    4:37:40 I don’t have to force myself to play that with them.
    4:37:43 I often ask, like, hey, do you want to play Fortnite?
    4:37:47 But still, it’s an activity that I get to share with them.
    4:37:48 It’s a passion that I get to share with them.
    4:37:51 I’ve started doing go-karting with my oldest.
    4:37:55 I’ve been driving race cars for a long time, and now they’re getting into go-karting.
    4:38:01 And just being at the go-kart track, seeing them go around, seeing them get faster, seeing them learn that skill.
    4:38:06 You just go look at, like, what else would I be doing with my life?
    4:38:14 At my age, 45, I’m standing here truly enjoying life I brought into this world.
    4:38:19 What else is it that was so important at this stage that I would otherwise be spending my time on?
    4:38:20 All right.
    4:38:27 Like you mentioned, you like to race cars, and you do it at a world-class competitive level, which is incredible.
    4:38:29 So how did you get into it?
    4:38:31 What attracts you to racing?
    4:38:32 What do you love about it?
    4:38:37 The funny thing about getting into racing is I did not get my driver’s license until I was 25.
    4:38:47 I grew up in Copenhagen, Denmark, where the tax on cars is basically over 200%.
    4:38:54 So you pay for three cars, and you get one, and I didn’t even have the money for one car, let alone three.
    4:38:57 So I could not afford a car growing up.
    4:38:58 We did not have a car growing up.
    4:39:07 But Copenhagen is a nice city to be able to get around on a bike, or with a bus, or as I did for a long period of time, on rollerblades.
    4:39:15 But when I was 25, I realized I wanted to spend more time in the U.S.
    4:39:16 I wasn’t sure yet that I was going to move there.
    4:39:18 That turned out later to be true.
    4:39:22 But I knew that if I wanted to spend time in the U.S., I needed to have a driver’s license.
    4:39:26 I was not going to get around very well if I didn’t know how to drive a car.
    4:39:30 So I got a driver’s license at 25, then ended up moving to the U.S. later that year.
    4:39:36 And I’d always been into video games, racing video games.
    4:39:44 Metropolitan Street Racer under Dreamcast was one of those games that really sucked me into…
    4:39:52 It was the precursor to Project Gotham, which was the precursor to essentially Forza Horizon, I think.
    4:39:53 Oh, okay.
    4:39:54 I think that’s how the lineage goes.
    4:39:56 Just a great game.
    4:40:00 I actually just fired it up on an emulator a few weeks ago.
    4:40:07 And it still sort of kind of holds up because it has enough real car dynamics that it smells a little bit like driving a real car.
    4:40:10 It’s not just like an arcade racer like Sega Rally or something like that.
    4:40:12 But I’d always been into that.
    4:40:16 Then I got my driver’s license at 25 and moved to the U.S.
    4:40:26 And then two years later, a friend that I’d met in Chicago took me to the Chicago Audubon Country Club, which is this great track about 45 minutes from Chicago.
    4:40:49 And I sat in a race car and I drove a race car and I had the same kind of pseudo religious experience I did as when I started working on Ruby, where I did maybe 20 laps in this basically a Mazda race car from I think like the 90s or something.
    4:40:57 Like a pretty cheap race car, but a real race car, single seater, manual gearbox, but exposed slick wheels, all the stuff.
    4:41:02 And after having had that experience, first of all, it was just the most amazing thing ever.
    4:41:07 Like the physical sensation of driving a race car is really unique.
    4:41:14 And I think if you’re driving a car fast, you have maybe a 2% taste of it.
    4:41:27 The exposure to the elements that you get in a single seat race car, especially one like that where your head is actually out in the elements, you can see the individual wheels and your sensation of speed is just so much higher.
    4:41:29 It’s at a completely different level.
    4:41:30 So can you actually speak to that?
    4:41:38 So even at that, even at that Mazda, so you can feel what, can you feel like the track reverberating?
    4:41:39 You feel the grip?
    4:41:47 Not only can you see the bumps because you’re literally looking straight at the wheels, you can feel all the bumps because you’re running a slick tire.
    4:41:48 It’s a really stiff setup.
    4:41:53 It’s nothing like taking a fast street car out on a racetrack and try to driving a little bit around.
    4:41:55 So can you feel like the slipping?
    4:41:56 You can feel the traction.
    4:42:06 That’s a huge part of the satisfaction of driving a race car is driving it at the edge of adhesion, as we call it, where the car is actually sliding a little bit.
    4:42:10 A couple of percent slip angle is the fastest way to drive a race car.
    4:42:11 You don’t want to slide too much.
    4:42:12 That looks great.
    4:42:13 Lots of smoke, but it’s not fast.
    4:42:28 How you want to drive it is just at the limit of adhesion where you’re rotating the car as much as your tires can manage and then slightly more than that and playing at it, keeping it just at that level.
    4:42:35 Because when you’re at the level of or at the limit of adhesion, you’re essentially just a tiny movement away from spinning out.
    4:42:37 I mean, it doesn’t take much.
    4:42:38 Then the car starts rotating.
    4:42:42 Once it starts rotating, you lose grip and you’re going for the wall.
    4:42:49 That balance of danger and skill is what’s so intoxicating.
    4:42:56 And it’s so much better than racing video games, too, because the criticality is taking up two notches.
    4:43:01 I often think about people who really like gambling, where I think, like, aren’t you just playing poker?
    4:43:04 And, like, no, the point is not poker.
    4:43:07 Poker may be part of it, but the point is that I could lose my house, right?
    4:43:13 Like, that’s the addiction that some people get to gambling, that there’s something real on the line.
    4:43:16 When you’re in a race car, there’s something very real on the line.
    4:43:24 If you get it wrong, at the very least, you’re going to spin out and probably hit a wall, and it’s going to be expensive.
    4:43:28 At the very worst, you’re not getting out alive.
    4:43:35 And even if modern race cars have gotten way safer than they used to be, there is that element of danger that’s real.
    4:43:40 That there are people who still get seriously hurt or even killed in a race car.
    4:43:56 It’s mercifully rare compared to what it used to be when those maniacs in the 60s would do Formula One and whatever, 13% of the grid wouldn’t make it to the end of the year because they’d just die in a fiery, flaming fireball.
    4:44:04 But there’s still some of it there, and I think that sense that there’s something on the line really contributes to it.
    4:44:04 But it’s not more than that.
    4:44:06 There’s just a physical sensation.
    4:44:08 There’s activation of all your forces.
    4:44:09 There’s the flow.
    4:44:14 And I think that really cements, like, why I got addicted.
    4:44:18 Because I always, I love that flow I got out of programming.
    4:44:21 But getting flow out of programming is a very inconsistent process.
    4:44:27 I can’t just sit down in front of a keyboard and go like, all right, let’s get the flow going.
    4:44:29 It doesn’t happen like that.
    4:44:30 The problem has to be just right.
    4:44:32 It has to meet my skills in just the right moment.
    4:44:33 It’s a bit of a lottery.
    4:44:36 In a race car, it’s not a lottery at all.
    4:44:43 You sit down in that car, you turn the ignition, you go out on track, and I get flow virtually guaranteed.
    4:44:52 Because you need, or I need, at least 100% of my brain processing power to be able to go at the speed I go without crashing.
    4:44:59 So, there’s no time to think about dinner tonight or the meeting next week or product launch.
    4:45:04 It just, it’s completely zen in actually the literal sense of the word.
    4:45:07 I think of someone who’s really good at meditation.
    4:45:09 That’s probably kind of state they get into.
    4:45:11 It’s just clear you’re in the now.
    4:45:14 There’s nothing but you and the next corner.
    4:45:17 That’s a really addictive experience.
    4:45:19 So, after I’ve had that, I couldn’t get enough.
    4:45:21 I just, I kept going to the track.
    4:45:25 Every opportunity I got, every single weekend for about four years, I would go to the track.
    4:45:34 And by the end of that time, I’d finally worked up enough skill and enough success with the company that I could afford to go, quote unquote, real racing.
    4:45:43 So, I started doing that, I started driving these Porsches, and then as soon as I got into that, as soon as I got into, quote unquote, real competition, I was like, I wonder how far you can take this.
    4:45:49 And it didn’t take that long before I decided, you know what, I could take this all the way.
    4:45:57 My great hero in racing is Tom Christensen, fellow Dane, the Mr. Le Mans, as they call him.
    4:46:04 The greatest endurance race in the world, the 24 hours of Le Mans, has been won more times than any other by Tom Christensen.
    4:46:06 He won the race nine times.
    4:46:11 So, Tom just really turned me on to Le Mans.
    4:46:15 I’ve been watching Le Mans since, I think, the 80s.
    4:46:17 I have my earliest memories of watching that on TV.
    4:46:20 The race has been going since, I think, the 20s.
    4:46:22 But in the 80s, I got kind of into it.
    4:46:32 And then in the late 90s, early 2000s, when Tom started winning, I, like pretty much every other Dane, started watching the race almost religiously.
    4:46:33 So I thought, you know what, I want to get to Le Mans.
    4:46:43 And this is the magic thing about racing, that if I get into basketball, like I can’t set a realistic expectation that I’m going to play in the NBA, that I’m going to go to the finals.
    4:46:46 Or I get into tennis and I’m going to play at Wimbledon.
    4:46:47 That just doesn’t happen.
    4:46:52 But racing is special in this way because it requires a fair amount of money to keep these cars running.
    4:46:53 It’s really expensive.
    4:46:55 It’s like having a small startup.
    4:46:59 You need to fly a bunch of people around the world and buy expensive equipment and so forth.
    4:47:00 So you need a bunch of capital.
    4:47:06 And I had some through the success of the company so I could do it, which meant that I could get to Le Mans.
    4:47:07 So I set that as my goal.
    4:47:08 I want to get to Le Mans.
    4:47:13 And I started racing in real competition in 2009.
    4:47:18 And three years later in 2012, I was at the grid of Le Mans for the first time.
    4:47:22 We should say, so Le Mans, 24-hour race, endurance.
    4:47:25 I mean, this is insane.
    4:47:27 There are three drivers, mind you.
    4:47:30 So it’s not like one guy just driving for 20 hours, 24 hours straight.
    4:47:35 But still, it’s a pretty tough race, both physically and mentally, especially mentally.
    4:47:43 When you’ve been up for 24-plus hours, you’re not quite as sharp as when you first wake up.
    4:47:45 And this is funny about Le Mans, too.
    4:47:47 It starts at around 4 o’clock in the afternoon.
    4:47:50 So you’ve already been up for half a day by the time the race starts.
    4:47:52 And then there’s 24 hours to go before you’re done.
    4:47:59 And you’ll be in the car for anywhere from usually an hour and a half to a maximum of four hours.
    4:48:02 The regulations say four out of six is the max you can do.
    4:48:05 I’ve spent perhaps two and a half hours in a single stint at Le Mans.
    4:48:07 It’s pretty taxing.
    4:48:11 You’re going 200 miles an hour into some of these turns.
    4:48:15 And there’s another 60 cars on track.
    4:48:25 Whenever I’m in my normal category, which is the LMP2 category, I have GT cars, which are more like a Ferrari and a Porsche that I have to overtake.
    4:48:29 And then I have these hyper cars, which is the top class that are overtaking me.
    4:48:30 So you’ve got a lot going on.
    4:48:34 And you’ve got to stay sharp for two and a half hours straight to do that.
    4:48:40 That is just a guaranteed way to get incredible flow for long, long stretches of time.
    4:48:42 That’s why you get addicted to it.
    4:48:43 That’s why I got addicted to it.
    4:48:47 You’ve got to talk me through this video, this video of you in these LMP2s.
    4:48:48 This is such a cool.
    4:48:49 This is so cool.
    4:48:53 This was probably my favorite battle of my career.
    4:48:53 Sure.
    4:48:57 And Hallmark Hansen has beat past and fight.
    4:48:57 Yeah.
    4:49:02 So this is me driving against Nico Miller at the Shanghai International Circuit.
    4:49:03 You’re on the outside.
    4:49:06 I’m on the outside in the blue and white.
    4:49:11 And we go a whole track around with basically a piece of paper between a seat down this back straight.
    4:49:17 I get so close to him because I want to force him over on the other side of the track such that he can’t just box me in.
    4:49:21 And we’ve been fighting already at this point for basically 40 minutes straight.
    4:49:25 I’ve been managing to keep this professional driver behind me for 40 minutes.
    4:49:29 And he finally passes me, but we just keep the battle on for the whole time.
    4:49:35 And it really just shows both these kinds of cars, the Le Mans prototypes we don’t actually ever touch.
    4:49:41 We get within about an inch and keep going around the Shanghai Circuit too.
    4:49:43 How did you get so good?
    4:49:45 Like what?
    4:49:47 I mean, that’s a fascinating story, right?
    4:49:49 That you are able to get so good.
    4:49:55 I’m pretty good for the kind of driver I am, which is called the gentleman driver, which means I’m not a professional driver.
    4:50:05 And like many good gentleman drivers, when we’re at our really best, we can be quite competitive with even professional drivers who have been doing this their whole life.
    4:50:10 The difference between us and the professionals is the professionals can do it every time or more or less every time.
    4:50:12 So I can’t be this good all the time.
    4:50:16 When everything is just right, I can be competitive with professional drivers.
    4:50:19 But that’s not how you win championships.
    4:50:21 That’s not how you get paid by factories to drive.
    4:50:23 You’ve got to be good every time you go out.
    4:50:24 So that’s a huge difference.
    4:50:27 But some of it was also just, I really put my mind to it.
    4:50:35 By the time I realized race cars is what I want to do as my serious hobby, I put in thousands of hours.
    4:50:37 Have you crashed?
    4:50:38 What’s the worst crash?
    4:50:40 I’ve had a lot of crashes.
    4:50:45 But thankfully, nug on wood, I haven’t had any crashes where I’ve gotten really seriously hurt.
    4:50:47 Have you like wrecked the car?
    4:50:48 Oh, yes.
    4:50:48 Oh, yes.
    4:50:50 I’ve wrecked many a car.
    4:50:51 So what does that feel like?
    4:50:52 Just you wreck a car?
    4:50:53 Like, how do you get?
    4:50:58 It feels like total shit if you’re in a real race and other people depend on you.
    4:51:03 It’s not even so much the car, although it’s also sometimes that these cars are expensive to repair and that sucks.
    4:51:07 And it feels so wasteful in a way when you crash some of these cars.
    4:51:13 But the sense that you’re letting a team down, endurance racing is a team sport.
    4:51:16 Not only do you have your mechanics, you usually have co-drivers.
    4:51:18 So when I crash, I just feel like, damn it.
    4:51:20 I could have avoided this.
    4:51:23 Yeah, but also, you could have died.
    4:51:24 Do you know what’s funny?
    4:51:26 I never think about that.
    4:51:27 I don’t think you can.
    4:51:33 Because I think the moment you start thinking about being able to die, you can’t do it.
    4:51:34 You can’t go fast.
    4:51:44 Well, I’m sure, not to go all Carl Jung and Freud here, but I’m sure that’s always present in the back of your mind somewhere.
    4:51:46 You’re not just bringing it to the surface.
    4:51:50 It is in the sense that it’s part of the appeal.
    4:51:55 It’s part of the sense that there’s something on the line, that this isn’t just virtual.
    4:51:57 I can’t just hit reset, restart, reboot.
    4:52:05 If I crash this car, we’re going to be out, or we’re going to be disadvantaged, or it’s going to get destroyed, or I might get hurt.
    4:52:08 I’ve gotten lightly hurt a few times.
    4:52:13 I actually had the year we won 24 hours of Le Mans in our class.
    4:52:19 I’ve been training in this Formula 3.5 car.
    4:52:20 It’s a really fast car.
    4:52:24 It’s a really nice exercise to do, but it’s also, it doesn’t have power steering.
    4:52:34 So some of these race cars, especially the open seaters, they don’t have power steering, which means that the steering wheel is basically directly connected to the front wheels.
    4:52:41 So if you crash one of those cars and the front wheels suddenly turn, you’re really going to hurt your hands if you don’t get your hands off the wheel.
    4:52:48 I hadn’t raced enough of those cars to know that I had to get, or to have the instinct, to have developed the instinct that I had to get my hands off the wheel.
    4:52:49 So I didn’t.
    4:52:51 And I really hurt my hand.
    4:52:55 And this was just, I think, a month before the 24 hours of Le Mans.
    4:52:57 So I thought, oh, man, I’m going to have to miss it this year.
    4:52:59 I had like, not a cast.
    4:53:00 It was just seriously sprained.
    4:53:06 And then somehow, miraculously, like a week before the event, I was like, oh, yeah, actually, it’s okay now.
    4:53:07 So got to do it.
    4:53:15 And that would have been grave regret if I would have seen my team go on to win the race, and I would have to sit on the sidelines.
    4:53:23 But I really have been quite fortunate in the sense that most of my crashes have just been expensive or sporting inconvenient.
    4:53:26 They’ve never been something where I got seriously hurt.
    4:53:28 But I’ve seen plenty of people who have.
    4:53:36 In fact, my co-driver this year, and for several years, Petro Fittipaldi, drove a race car at Spa.
    4:53:40 Spa is one of the great racetracks of all time.
    4:53:45 And it has this iconic corner called Arouge, which is probably the most famous corner in all of motorsports.
    4:53:49 It has a great compression before you climb uphill.
    4:53:52 It’s an extremely fast, very difficult corner.
    4:53:58 And just as he does the compression, his car basically sets out, and he loses his power steering.
    4:54:05 And he drives straight into the wall and breaks both his legs and basically face the prospect that maybe his career was over.
    4:54:11 I’ve had other teammates and people I know have serious injuries that’s really hurt them.
    4:54:16 And yet, what’s funny is, you say, you’d think that would sink in.
    4:54:28 The year before we won in 2014, that same car had a Danish driver in it at Le Mans, at the race I was driving, who died.
    4:54:35 He lost control of the car when there was a bit of rain on the track.
    4:54:42 And the track went, unfortunately, designed in such a poor way that there was a very big tree right behind the railing.
    4:54:56 And he hit that tree at full speed, pulled 90 Gs, and was dead on the spot, which was just such an extremely awful experience to go through.
    4:55:01 I finished second that year, which should have been cause for a bunch of celebration.
    4:55:12 But it was just tainted by the fact that not only did a driver die, a fellow Dane died, a guy I knew died.
    4:55:16 That was pretty tough.
    4:55:27 So throw that into the pile of the things that have to be considered as the weather conditions, like you mentioned, of the track, whether it’s dry or wet.
    4:55:29 It’s a huge part of it.
    4:55:34 Even just last year at Le Mans, it was raining, and I was out.
    4:55:48 And I hadn’t made a serious mistake at the 24th of Le Mans since I did the first race in 2012, where I put it in the sand trap with like four hours to go.
    4:55:56 And we lost a couple of laps getting pulled out, but it didn’t actually change anything for our result because that was just how the field was spread out.
    4:55:59 I’d made minor mistakes over the years, but nothing that really set us out.
    4:56:12 And at the race last year, when it was raining, I first clobbered a Ford Mustang when I made an overambitious pass on a damp part of the track and couldn’t stop in time.
    4:56:22 And then felt absolutely awful as I sat in the gravel pit for two laps and knew that our race was over, a race where we were highly competitive.
    4:56:27 You’re not blessed with a competitive car, a competitive team, and competitive setup every year.
    4:56:28 I know how rare that is.
    4:56:37 So to know that we had had a chance that year and I sort of squandered it felt really bad, but that got compounded.
    4:56:44 I got back on track, barely made it another stint, and then put it in the gravel trap again when it started raining on the entrance into Porsche.
    4:56:50 So this is part of why racing is so addicting too, because the highs are very, very high.
    4:56:55 When you win a race like the 24 hours of Le Mans, it feels just incredible.
    4:56:56 There’s so much emotion.
    4:57:00 But if you fuck it up, the lows are very, very low.
    4:57:03 What are the things you’re paying attention to when you’re driving?
    4:57:06 What are the parameters?
    4:57:07 What are you loading in?
    4:57:12 Are you feeling the grip?
    4:57:19 Are you basically increasing the speed and seeing what, like, a constant feedback system effect it has on the grip?
    4:57:23 Are you trying to manage that and try to find that optimal slip angle?
    4:57:27 Are you looking around using your eyes?
    4:57:29 Are you smelling things?
    4:57:30 Are you listening?
    4:57:31 Are you feeling the wind?
    4:57:35 Are you, oh, are you looking at the field too?
    4:57:38 Like, how did you not hit that guy at all?
    4:57:40 You get close within inches, right?
    4:57:41 So you have to pay attention to that too.
    4:57:46 It’s really interesting about that specific battle where we’re literally a few inches apart.
    4:57:58 I can’t fully explain it, but humans can develop an incredible sense of space where I can’t see the edge of the back of my car, but I can know exactly where it is.
    4:58:12 I can have a mental model in my head that gives me the exact dimensions of this car so that I can run within a few inches of a competitor car or within a few inches of the wall and not hit either when things go well.
    4:58:18 The car is about two meters wide and it’s quite long, five meters, and you can’t see everything.
    4:58:20 The mirrors are actually kind of shit.
    4:58:22 There’s no rear view mirror in these cars.
    4:58:23 You can’t see out the back.
    4:58:30 You can only see through your two side mirrors, but you form this intuitive mental model when you get good enough at this.
    4:58:35 But what I actually pay attention to most is I run a program.
    4:58:42 What I try to do when I go to a racetrack is I try to load up the best program I know how for every single corner.
    4:58:43 What’s my brake point?
    4:58:45 What’s my acceleration point?
    4:58:48 What’s my brake trailing curve?
    4:58:54 And I try to pick up that program in part just by finding it myself and how fast I can go.
    4:59:00 But even more so than that, by copying my professional competitors or not competitors, co-drivers.
    4:59:07 So I usually always race with a pro and modern race cars produce an absolute enormous amount of data.
    4:59:10 And you can analyze all that data after each outing.
    4:59:18 You can see an exact trace of how much you push the brake pedal, how much you did in terms of steering inputs, when you got on the gas.
    4:59:24 You can see every millisecond you’re losing is evident in those charts.
    4:59:28 So what I try to do is I try to look at the chart and then I try to load that in.
    4:59:30 And like, that’s what I got to do.
    4:59:36 Oh, in this corner 17, I actually I have to be 10 bar lighter on the brake.
    4:59:39 So I try to load that program in and then I try to repeat it.
    4:59:41 Now, then there are all the things that changes.
    4:59:43 Your tires change quite a lot.
    4:59:48 These tires are made to only last 40 minutes in many cases.
    4:59:55 Sometimes at Le Mans, we can go longer, but at some racetracks, they last as little as 40 minutes before they really fall off.
    4:59:57 So you got to manage that, that the grip is constantly changing.
    5:00:01 So your program have to suddenly fit those changing circumstances.
    5:00:08 And then in endurance racing, you’re constantly interacting with other cars because you’re passing slower classes or you’re getting passed by a faster class.
    5:00:10 So that’s part of the equation.
    5:00:14 And then you’re trying to dance the car around the limit of adhesion.
    5:00:17 So you got all those factors playing at the same time.
    5:00:21 But above all else for me is to try to become a robot.
    5:00:33 Like, how can I repeat this set of steps exactly as I’m supposed to for two and a half hours straight without making 100 milliseconds worth of mistakes?
    5:00:33 Yeah.
    5:00:35 Low latency algorithm.
    5:00:37 That’s really a huge part of it, actually.
    5:00:45 Your latency is enormously important in terms of being able to catch when the car starts slipping.
    5:00:53 You get this sensation in your body that the G-forces are a little off, the slip angle is a little off, and then you have to counter-steer.
    5:00:57 And obviously, the best race car drivers just feel like an intuition.
    5:00:58 I have some intuition.
    5:00:59 I don’t have all of it.
    5:01:02 So I do occasionally spin my car.
    5:01:03 But that’s the challenge.
    5:01:09 From everything you’ve studied and understand, what does it take to achieve mastery in racing?
    5:01:13 Like, what does it take to become the best race car driver in the world?
    5:01:15 Obsession is part of it.
    5:01:23 When I read and hear about Senna and the other greats, they were just singularly focused.
    5:01:28 Max Verstappen is the current champion of the world, and he is the same kind.
    5:01:31 Max has been fascinating to watch.
    5:01:36 I mean, he’s a phenomenal race car driver, but he also literally does nothing else.
    5:01:39 When he’s not at the racetrack, he’s driving sim racing.
    5:01:43 Like, he’s literally in video games doing more racing.
    5:01:45 When he’s not doing all the racing, he’s already doing.
    5:01:51 Is there a specific skill they have that, like, stands out to you as supernatural through all that obsession?
    5:01:58 Like, what—is it a bunch of factors, or are they actually able to, like you said, develop a sense?
    5:02:01 Is it that they’re able to get to the very edge of the slip?
    5:02:06 They’re able to develop very fine-tuned sensibilities for when the car is sliding.
    5:02:13 They can feel just these tiny moments or movements in the chassis that transports up, usually through their ass.
    5:02:22 That’s why you call it like a butt meter, that goes up and you feel like the car is loose, or you feel like you’re just about to lock up.
    5:02:25 You can really hone that tuning.
    5:02:28 Then the other thing is, you have to have really good reaction time.
    5:02:37 And when you look at great Formula One drivers, they can generally have a reaction time of just under 200 milliseconds, which is awesome.
    5:02:41 And even 10 milliseconds difference makes a huge difference.
    5:02:47 You’ll see it when the Formula One grid, for example, they do a standing start, and you see the five red lights come on.
    5:02:52 And when the last light goes out, they’re supposed to release the clutch and get going.
    5:02:56 And they can time this, so you can see exactly who has the reaction time.
    5:03:03 And even being off by 20 milliseconds can make the difference of whether you’re in front or behind at the first corner.
    5:03:08 How much of winning is also just the strategy of jostling for position?
    5:03:11 There’s some of that, and some of it is also just nerve.
    5:03:12 Who wants it more?
    5:03:16 That’s exactly when that sense of danger comes in.
    5:03:24 There’s a great quote from Fernando Alonso when he was driving at Suzuka against Schumacher, I think.
    5:03:27 They’re coming up to this incredibly fast corner.
    5:03:29 It’s very dangerous.
    5:03:37 And Alonso basically accounts, I was going to make the pass because I knew he had a wife and kids at home.
    5:03:38 That’s so gangster.
    5:03:40 Just absolutely ruthless, right?
    5:03:41 Yeah, wow.
    5:03:43 That I knew he valued life more than I did.
    5:03:46 So there’s a bit of poker sometimes in that.
    5:03:48 Who’s going to yield?
    5:03:51 There’s a bit of chicken race in that regard.
    5:03:53 And sometimes it doesn’t work.
    5:03:55 No one yields and you both crash.
    5:03:57 But very often, one person will blink first.
    5:03:59 Can the pass be both on the inside and the outside?
    5:04:05 You can pass wherever you want, as long as you have just a slight part of the car on the racetrack.
    5:04:09 And then you just improvise and take risks.
    5:04:11 What a sport.
    5:04:15 And then Senna, of course, is like the legendary risk taker.
    5:04:16 Yes.
    5:04:22 And even before him, by the time, I mean, he died in the 90s.
    5:04:29 But by the time we got to the 90s, racing was already a lot safer than it was when Niki Lauda raced in the 60s.
    5:04:32 That level of danger is no longer there.
    5:04:34 There’s still just a remnant of it.
    5:04:37 And it is still dangerous, but nothing like that.
    5:04:39 And it’s a little hard to compare through the ages.
    5:04:41 Like, who’s the greatest driver of all time?
    5:04:44 I think there’s a fair argument that Senna is.
    5:04:46 But we don’t have the data.
    5:04:47 We don’t know who he was up against.
    5:04:50 Like, how would he fare if we pitted him against Max Verstappen today?
    5:04:55 I do think sometimes that you can have a bit of a nostalgia for the all-time greats.
    5:04:59 But the world moves forward and new records are being set all the time.
    5:05:01 And the professionalism keeps improving.
    5:05:08 Sometimes to the detriment of the sport, I think there’s a lot of professional drivers who are not only just very good at driving,
    5:05:10 but are very good at being corporate spokespeople.
    5:05:11 And it used to be quite different.
    5:05:17 There used to be more characters in racing that had a bit more personality that they were allowed to shine
    5:05:21 because there weren’t a billion sponsorships on the line that they were afraid to lose.
    5:05:22 Ridiculous question.
    5:05:23 What’s the greatest car ever made?
    5:05:26 Or maybe, uh, what’s the funnest one to drive?
    5:05:30 The greatest car for me of all time is the Pagani Sonda.
    5:05:32 Okay, I’m looking this up.
    5:05:33 Pagani Sonda.
    5:05:40 So the Pagani Sonda was made by this wonderful Argentinian called Horacio Pagani.
    5:05:42 My God, that’s a beautiful car, wow.
    5:05:43 It’s a gorgeous car.
    5:05:44 You can look up mine.
    5:05:46 It’s the Pagani Sonda HH.
    5:05:47 Yep.
    5:06:01 So that’s, um, a car I had made in 2010 after we visited the factory in Marna and by sheer
    5:06:07 accident ended up with this car, but it became my favorite car in the world.
    5:06:15 Basically when I watched an episode of Top Gear, I think in 2005 where one of the presenters
    5:06:20 were driving the Pagani Sonda F around and I just thought that’s the most beautiful car
    5:06:20 in the world.
    5:06:24 It is the most incredibly sounding car in the world.
    5:06:29 If I one day have the option, this is what I want.
    5:06:32 And then I had the option in 2010.
    5:06:33 I’ve had the car ever since.
    5:06:35 I’m never, ever going to sell it.
    5:06:39 It’s truly a masterpiece that stood the test of time.
    5:06:44 There’s some great cars from history that are recognized as being great in their time.
    5:06:45 This car is still great.
    5:06:47 Have you taken it on the racetrack?
    5:06:48 I have.
    5:06:49 It’s terrible at that.
    5:06:51 Well, I don’t want to say it’s terrible at that.
    5:06:52 That’s not what it’s designed for.
    5:06:54 It’s designed for the road.
    5:06:56 And that’s why it’s great.
    5:07:01 There are a lot of fast cars that are straddling their race car for the road.
    5:07:03 You don’t actually want a race car for the world.
    5:07:05 A race car for the world is a pain in the ass.
    5:07:06 It’s way too stiff.
    5:07:07 It’s way too loud.
    5:07:08 It’s way too uncomfortable.
    5:07:10 You can’t actually take it on a road trip.
    5:07:13 So this actually feels good driving normal roads?
    5:07:13 Oh, totally.
    5:07:15 And you, of course, always go to speed limit.
    5:07:16 Always.
    5:07:21 This is why I love having this car in Spain because they’re a little more relaxed.
    5:07:24 Not entirely relaxed, but more relaxed than they are in a lot of places.
    5:07:30 In Denmark, I kid you not, if you are on the highway and you go more than twice the speed limit,
    5:07:33 they confiscate your car and keep it.
    5:07:35 You’re not getting it back.
    5:07:36 They don’t even care if it’s your car or not.
    5:07:40 Like, if you were boring my car and you went twice the speed limit, it’s gone.
    5:07:43 So they don’t do that in Spain.
    5:07:49 I mean, in most places, except for the German Autobahn, they get pissy if you go twice the speed limit.
    5:07:54 For all sorts of fair reasons, I’m not advocating that you should be going much more than that.
    5:07:58 But there are certain special roads where you can’t open things up and no one’s in harm’s way.
    5:08:00 And that’s an incredible sensation.
    5:08:03 And I do think that some of those speed limits actually are kind of silly.
    5:08:05 And I’m not just saying that in a vacuum.
    5:08:08 In Germany, they have the glorious Autobahn.
    5:08:12 And on the Autobahn, there is no speed limit in a bunch of segments.
    5:08:19 And they’re so committed to their speed limitless Autobahn, which is, by the way, very weird of Germans.
    5:08:20 They usually love rules.
    5:08:22 They usually are very precise about it.
    5:08:24 And then they have this glorious thing called the Autobahn.
    5:08:33 There was a great case a couple of years ago where a guy took out a Bugatti Chiron, went 400 kilometers an hour on the Autobahn.
    5:08:35 And he filmed it and put it on YouTube.
    5:08:42 And a case was brought against him because even though they don’t have a speed limit, they do have rules that you can’t drive recklessly.
    5:08:43 And he won the case.
    5:08:44 He wasn’t driving recklessly.
    5:08:47 He was just going very, very fast.
    5:08:49 I’ve done the Autobahn a couple of times.
    5:08:53 My wife and I went on a road trip in Europe in 2009.
    5:08:58 And I got the Lamborghini Chiara we were driving up to 200 miles an hour.
    5:09:03 And I’d driven 200 miles an hour or close to it on a racetrack before.
    5:09:04 That feels like one thing.
    5:09:08 Driving on a public road, 200 miles an hour feels really, really fast.
    5:09:09 Scary?
    5:09:11 Actually, a little scary, yes.
    5:09:15 Because you constantly think, like, on a racetrack, you know the road.
    5:09:16 You know the surface.
    5:09:18 You can walk the track most of the time.
    5:09:18 You can know if there’s a dip.
    5:09:21 On a public road, you can’t know if there’s suddenly a pothole.
    5:09:25 Presumably, there’s not going to be a pothole on the German Autobahn.
    5:09:26 But it does feel a little scary.
    5:09:28 But also exhilarating.
    5:09:32 Speed is just intrinsically really fun.
    5:09:35 I don’t know anyone I’ve taken out in a fast car.
    5:09:36 Well, actually, I do know a few people.
    5:09:39 Most people I take out in a fast car, they grin.
    5:09:43 It’s a human reaction to grin when you go really fast.
    5:09:46 Do you know what the fastest you’ve ever gone?
    5:09:47 I was probably at Le Mans.
    5:09:53 I think when the LMP2s were at their maximum power and had 600 horsepower and really sticky tires,
    5:09:58 we were going 340 kilometers an hour, which is just over 200 miles an hour.
    5:09:59 A bit over 200 miles an hour.
    5:10:02 That does feel fast.
    5:10:08 And it’s really interesting with speed is that the difference between going, let’s say, 150 and 160
    5:10:13 doesn’t feel that much, actually, those 10 miles an hour.
    5:10:18 But the difference between going 190 and 200 feels crazy faster,
    5:10:23 which as a percentage change is actually less than going from 150 to 160.
    5:10:31 But there’s some sense of exponentiality once you get up to those limits, where it’s just on a complete different level.
    5:10:35 Yeah, because to me, like 110, 120 feels fast.
    5:10:37 200.
    5:10:39 That’s crazy.
    5:10:40 It really is crazy.
    5:10:49 I got to ask you about the details of your programming setup, the IDE, all that kind of stuff.
    5:10:54 Let’s paint the picture of the perfect programming setup.
    5:10:57 Do you have a programming setup that you enjoy?
    5:10:58 Are you very flexible?
    5:10:59 Like how many monitors?
    5:11:01 What kind of keyboard?
    5:11:03 What kind of chair?
    5:11:05 What kind of desk?
    5:11:10 It’s funny because if you’d asked me, let’s see, a year and a half ago,
    5:11:15 I would have given you the same answer as I would have given anyone for basically 20 years.
    5:11:17 I want a Mac.
    5:11:21 I like the Magic Keyboard.
    5:11:25 I like the single monitor.
    5:11:31 Apple makes an awesome 6K 32-inch XDR screen that I still haven’t found anyone who’d beaten,
    5:11:34 that I still use, even though I switched away from Apple computers,
    5:11:37 I still use their monitor because it’s just fantastic.
    5:11:40 But I’ve always been a single screen kind of guy.
    5:11:43 I do like a big screen, but I don’t want multiple screens.
    5:11:47 I’ve never found that that really works with my perception.
    5:11:49 I want to be able to just focus on a single thing.
    5:11:51 I don’t want all of it all over the place.
    5:11:56 And I’ve always used multiple virtual desktops and being able to switch back and forth between those things.
    5:12:00 But the setup I have today is Linux.
    5:12:07 I switched to a little over a year ago after I finally got fed up with Apple enough that I couldn’t do that anymore.
    5:12:17 And then I use this low-profile mechanical keyboard called the LowFree Flow 84,
    5:12:23 which is just the most glorious-sounding keyboard I’ve ever heard.
    5:12:28 I know there are a lot of connoisseurs of mechanical keyboards that will probably contest me on this.
    5:12:32 This is too thocky or too clicky or too clacky or whatever.
    5:12:41 But for me, the LowFree Flow 84 is just a delight that I did not even know existed, which is so funny.
    5:12:43 Because, I mean, I’ve been programming for a long time.
    5:12:46 Mechanical keyboards have been a thing for a long time.
    5:12:50 And the keyboard, when you look at it like this, it just kind of, it looks plain.
    5:12:56 It doesn’t look extravagant, but the tactile sensation you get out of pushing those keys,
    5:13:02 the talky sound that you hear when the keys hit the board, it’s just sublime.
    5:13:12 And I’m kicking myself that I was in this Mac bubble for so long that I wasn’t even in the market to find this.
    5:13:22 I didn’t, I knew mechanical keyboards existed, but to be blunt, I thought it was a bit of a nerd thing that only real nerds that were much more nerdy than me would ever care about.
    5:13:26 And then I got out of the Apple bubble and suddenly I had to find everything again.
    5:13:27 I had to find a new mouse.
    5:13:28 I had to find a new keyboard.
    5:13:29 I had to find everything.
    5:13:32 And I thought like, all right, let me give mechanical keyboards a try.
    5:13:34 And I gave quite a few of them a try.
    5:13:37 The Keychron is one of the big brands in that.
    5:13:38 I didn’t like that at all.
    5:13:45 I tried a bunch of other keyboards and then I finally found this keyboard and I just went like angels of singing.
    5:13:46 Where have you been my whole life?
    5:13:50 We spent as programmers so much of our time interacting with those keys.
    5:13:53 It really kind of matters in a way I didn’t fully appreciate.
    5:13:57 I used to defend the Apple Magic keyboard.
    5:13:58 Like, it’s great.
    5:13:59 It’s actually a great keyboard.
    5:14:04 And I think for what it is, this ultra low profile, ultra low travel is actually a really nice keyboard.
    5:14:09 But once you’ve tried a longer travel mechanical keyboard, there’s no going back.
    5:14:18 You do have to remember in many ways, both on the software side and the hardware side, that you do spend a lot of hours behind the computer.
    5:14:19 It’s worth investing in.
    5:14:24 And also worth exploring until you find the thing where the angels start singing or whatever.
    5:14:25 That’s exactly right.
    5:14:30 And I actually do regret that a little bit, especially with this damn keyboard.
    5:14:34 I could have been listening to these beautiful docky keys for years and years.
    5:14:42 But sometimes you have to get really pissed off before you open your eyes and see that something else exists.
    5:14:43 I feel the same way about Linux.
    5:14:49 So I’ve been using Linux on the server since late 90s, probably.
    5:14:51 We ran servers on Linux back then.
    5:14:55 I never seriously considered it as a desktop option.
    5:14:58 I never ran Linux before directly myself.
    5:14:59 I always thought, you know what?
    5:15:01 I just I want to focus on programming.
    5:15:05 I don’t have time for all these configuration files and all this setup bullshit and whatnot.
    5:15:07 And Apple is close enough.
    5:15:09 It’s built on Unix underpinnings.
    5:15:11 Why do I need to bother with Linux?
    5:15:24 And again, it was one of those things I needed to try new things and try something else to realize that there is other things other than Apple.
    5:15:25 And again, it’s not because I hate Apple.
    5:15:27 I think they still make good computers.
    5:15:30 I think a lot of the software is still also pretty okay.
    5:15:35 But I have come to realize that as a web developer, Linux is just better.
    5:15:36 Linux is just better.
    5:15:39 It’s closer to what I deploy on.
    5:15:41 The tooling is actually phenomenal.
    5:15:52 And if you spend a bit of time setting it up, you can record a reproducible environment that I’ve now done with this Omocube concept or project that I’ve done.
    5:15:56 That I can set up a new Linux machine in less than 30 minutes.
    5:15:57 And it’s perfect.
    5:15:58 It’s not pretty good.
    5:16:00 It’s not like I still need to spend two hours on.
    5:16:05 It’s perfect because you can code all aspects of the development environment into this.
    5:16:06 And I didn’t know.
    5:16:11 I didn’t even know, to be fair, that Linux could look as good as it can.
    5:16:19 If you look at a stock Ubuntu or Fedora boot, I mean, not that it’s ugly, but I’d pick the Mac in the day of the week.
    5:16:22 You look at Omocube.
    5:16:25 I mean, I’m biased here, of course, because I built it with my own sensibilities.
    5:16:27 But I look at that and go like, this is better.
    5:16:29 This is beautiful.
    5:16:34 And then you look at some of those true Linux rising setups where people go nuts with everything.
    5:16:39 And you go, oh, yeah, I remember when computers used to be fun in this way.
    5:16:45 When there was this individuality and this setup and it wasn’t just all bland, the sameness.
    5:16:50 And I think that’s the flip side sometimes of something like Apple where they have really strong opinions.
    5:16:52 And they have really good opinions.
    5:16:53 They have very good taste.
    5:16:54 And it looks very nice.
    5:16:56 And it also looks totally the same.
    5:16:59 And Linux has far more variety and far more texture and flavor.
    5:17:02 Sometimes also annoyances and bugs and whatever.
    5:17:05 But I run Linux now.
    5:17:08 It’s Ubuntu-based with the Omocube stuff on top.
    5:17:09 The low-free keyboard.
    5:17:14 I use a Logitech, what’s it called?
    5:17:18 The MS3 mouse, which I love how it feels in my hand.
    5:17:19 I don’t love how it looks.
    5:17:23 I actually was a magic mouse stan for the longest time.
    5:17:28 I thought it was genius that Apple integrated the trackpad into a mouse.
    5:17:29 And I used that.
    5:17:35 And I always thought it was ridiculous that people would slag it just because you had to charge it by flipping it over.
    5:17:39 Because the battery would last for three months and then you’d charge it for half an hour.
    5:17:43 I thought, like, that’s a perfect compatibility with my sensibilities.
    5:17:46 I don’t mind giving up a little inconvenience if something is beautiful.
    5:17:47 And that magic mouse is beautiful.
    5:17:50 But it wasn’t going to work on Linux, so I found something else.
    5:17:55 The MS3 is nice, but I sometimes do wish, like, the magic mouse is pretty good.
    5:18:01 Yeah, Linux is really great for customizing everything, for tiling, for macros, for all of that.
    5:18:04 I also do the same in Windows with AutoHotKey.
    5:18:08 We just customize the whole thing to your preferences.
    5:18:12 If you’re a developer, you should learn how to control your environment with the keyboard.
    5:18:16 It’s just, it’s faster, it’s more fluid.
    5:18:29 I think one of those silly things I’ve come to truly appreciate about my Omacoupe setup is that I can, in whatever time it takes to refresh the screen, probably five milliseconds, switch from one virtual desktop to another.
    5:18:33 Even on Windows, you can’t get it that smooth.
    5:18:35 You can get close, you can’t get it that smooth.
    5:18:47 On macOS, for whatever reason, Apple insists on having this infuriating animation when you switch between virtual desktops, which makes it just that you don’t want to.
    5:18:51 You don’t want to run full-screen apps because it’s too cumbersome to switch between the virtual desktops.
    5:18:58 The kind of immediacy that you can get from a wonderful Linux setup in that regard is just next level.
    5:19:06 Yeah, and it seems like a subtle thing, but, you know, difference in milliseconds and latency between switching the virtual desktops, for example.
    5:19:08 I don’t know, it changes.
    5:19:10 It changes how you use the computer.
    5:19:11 It really does.
    5:19:12 Similar thing with VR, right?
    5:19:17 If there’s some kind of latency or, like, it just completely takes you out of it.
    5:19:24 And it’s funny, I actually had to watch, I think it was the Primogen on YouTube, when he was showing off his setup.
    5:19:27 And I was seeing how quickly he was switching between those virtual desktops.
    5:19:32 And I’d always been using virtual desktops, but I didn’t like switching too much because just of that latency.
    5:19:34 And it’s like, oh, you can do that on Linux?
    5:19:35 Oh, that’s pretty cool.
    5:19:40 So I run that, and then my editor of choice now is NeoVim.
    5:19:40 Oh, good.
    5:19:41 All right.
    5:19:42 Well, we’re out of time.
    5:19:47 All right, you did, for many, many years, you used, what is it, TextMate?
    5:19:48 Yes, TextMate.
    5:19:51 That was actually, that was the main blocker of moving away from Apple.
    5:19:54 Everything else I thought, you know what, I can swing it.
    5:19:59 But TextMate was, and is, a wonderful editor.
    5:20:02 One, I helped birth into this world.
    5:20:10 The programmer, Alan Uggle, is a good friend of mine, all the way back from those, the party days when we were lugging our computers around.
    5:20:13 And he was a big Mac guy.
    5:20:16 And in 2005, he was writing this editor.
    5:20:25 And I helped him with the project management of kind of keeping him on track, keeping him focused on getting something released because I really wanted it for myself.
    5:20:28 And I thought this was the last editor.
    5:20:29 I thought I was never going to switch.
    5:20:34 Forgive me for not knowing, but how featureful is this editor?
    5:20:35 Is this?
    5:20:42 It’s quite featureful, but it’s a GUI-driven editor in some regards.
    5:20:51 It was really early on with ways of recording macros and having sort of sophisticated syntax highlighting.
    5:20:55 And it did a bunch of firsts, and it was just a really pleasant editing experience.
    5:20:59 I think these days, a lot of people would just use VS Code.
    5:21:03 VS Codes exist in the same universe as TextMate in some ways.
    5:21:08 And actually, I think it’s compatible with the original TextMate bundles, the original TextMate format.
    5:21:11 So it really trailed a path there.
    5:21:13 But it also just didn’t evolve.
    5:21:16 Now, a lot of people saw a huge problem with that.
    5:21:18 They were like, oh, it needs to have more features.
    5:21:19 It needs to have all these things.
    5:21:26 I was like, I’m happy with this text editor that hasn’t changed at all, basically, when Alan stopped working on it for a decade or more.
    5:21:27 I don’t need anything else.
    5:21:30 Because as our original discussion went, I don’t want an IDE.
    5:21:35 I don’t want the editor to write code for me.
    5:21:36 I want a text editor.
    5:21:39 I want to interact with characters directly.
    5:21:46 And NeoVim allows me to do that in some ways that are even better than TextMate.
    5:21:46 And I love TextMate.
    5:22:01 But VI, as you know, once you learn the commands, and it sounds, I sometimes feel like VI fans overplay how difficult it is to learn because it makes them perhaps seem kind of more awesome that they were able to do it.
    5:22:02 It’s not that difficult.
    5:22:11 And it doesn’t take that long, in my opinion, to learn just enough combo moves to get that high of, holy shit, I could not do this in any other.
    5:22:13 How long did it take you?
    5:22:14 And by the way, I don’t know.
    5:22:15 I’m still, I haven’t yet.
    5:22:23 I know intellectually, but just like with kids, I haven’t, I haven’t gone in all the way and I haven’t used them.
    5:22:25 You have a treat in mind.
    5:22:35 Well, I switched in about, I had three days, when I switched here about a year ago, I had three days of cursing where I thought it was absolutely terrible and that was never going to happen.
    5:22:40 And I had three days of annoyance and already the next week, I was like, this is sweet.
    5:22:41 I’m not going anywhere.
    5:22:42 Oh, wow.
    5:22:46 But I also had a bit of a head start about 20 years ago in the early 2000s.
    5:22:51 I tried Vim for like a summer and it didn’t stick.
    5:22:54 I didn’t, for whatever reason, love it at the time.
    5:22:55 But NeoVim is really good.
    5:23:00 The key to NeoVim is to realize that you don’t have to build the whole damn editor yourself.
    5:23:06 There’s a lot of NeoVim stans who are like, here’s how to write the config from scratch over 17 episodes.
    5:23:07 That’s going to take you three weeks.
    5:23:09 I don’t care that much.
    5:23:11 I love a great editor.
    5:23:13 I love to tailor it a little bit, but not that much.
    5:23:18 So you have to pair NeoVim with this thing called LazyVim.
    5:23:28 LazyVim.org is a distribution for NeoVim that takes all the drudgery out of getting an amazing editor experience right out of the box.
    5:23:30 Ridiculous question.
    5:23:32 We talked about a bunch of programming languages.
    5:23:35 You told us how much you love JavaScript.
    5:23:37 It’s your second favorite programming language.
    5:23:41 Would TypeScript be the third then?
    5:23:43 TypeScript wouldn’t even be in this universe.
    5:23:47 I hate TypeScript as much as I like JavaScript.
    5:23:49 So what you hate?
    5:23:51 Oh, man.
    5:23:53 I’m not smart enough to understand the math of that.
    5:23:53 Okay.
    5:24:05 Before I ask about other programming languages, if you can encapsulate your hatred of TypeScript into something that could be human interpretable, what would be the reasoning?
    5:24:11 The JavaScript smells a lot like Ruby when it comes to some aspects of its metaprogramming.
    5:24:19 And TypeScript just complicates that to an infuriating degree when you’re trying to write that kind of code.
    5:24:27 And even when you’re trying to write the normal kind of code, none of the benefits that accrue to people who like it, like autocompletion, is something I care about.
    5:24:30 I don’t care about autocompletion because I’m not using an IDE.
    5:24:36 I understand that that is part of what separates it and why I don’t see the benefits.
    5:24:37 I only see the costs.
    5:24:39 I see the extra typing.
    5:24:47 I see the type gymnastics that you sometimes have to do and where a bunch of people give up and just do any instead, right?
    5:24:51 Like that they don’t actually use the type system because it’s just too frustrating to use.
    5:25:01 So I’ve ever only felt the frustration of TypeScript and the obfuscation of TypeScript in the code that gave me no payoff.
    5:25:03 Again, I understand that there is a payoff.
    5:25:05 I don’t want the payoff.
    5:25:20 So for my situation, I’m not willing to make the trade and I’m not willing to take a language that underneath is as dynamic of a language as Ruby is and then turn it into this pretend statically typed language.
    5:25:23 I find that just intellectually insulting.
    5:25:26 Do you think it will and do you think it should die, TypeScript?
    5:25:29 I don’t want to take something away from people who enjoy it.
    5:25:32 So if you like TypeScript, all the most part of you.
    5:25:38 If you’re using TypeScript because you think that’s what a professional program is supposed to do, here’s my permission.
    5:25:39 You don’t have to use TypeScript.
    5:25:46 There’s something deeply enjoyable about a brilliant programmer such as yourself.
    5:25:48 DHH talking shit.
    5:25:51 It’s just it’s like one of my favorite things in life.
    5:25:56 What are the top three programming languages everyone should learn if you’re talking to a beginner?
    5:25:59 I would 100% start with Ruby.
    5:26:08 It is magic for beginners in terms of just understanding the core concepts of conditionals and loops and whatever because it makes it so easy.
    5:26:22 Even if you’re just making a shell program that’s outputting to the terminal, getting Hello World running in Ruby is basically puts, P-U-T-S, space, start quotes, Hello World, end quotes, you’re done.
    5:26:26 There’s nothing to wrap it into.
    5:26:33 There are other languages that does that, especially in the Perl or Python would be rather similar, but Go would not.
    5:26:34 Java would not.
    5:26:38 There’s a lot of other languages that have a lot more ceremony and boilerplate.
    5:26:39 Ruby has none of it.
    5:26:41 So it’s a wonderful starting language.
    5:26:52 There’s a book called Learn to Program by Pine that uses Ruby essentially to just teach basic programming principles that I’ve seen heavily recommended.
    5:26:53 So that’s a great language.
    5:26:55 How quickly would you go to Rails?
    5:26:56 It depends on what you want to do.
    5:26:59 If you want to build web applications, go to Rails right away.
    5:27:08 Learn Ruby along with Rails because I think what really helps power through learning programming is to build programs that you want, right?
    5:27:12 If you’re just learning it in the abstract, it’s difficult to motivate yourself to actually do it well.
    5:27:14 Some people learn languages just for the fun of them.
    5:27:16 Most people do not.
    5:27:18 Most people learn it because they have a mission.
    5:27:20 They want to build a program.
    5:27:21 They want to become a programmer.
    5:27:23 So you’ve got to use it for something real.
    5:27:28 And I actually find that it’s easier to learn programming that way too because it drives your learning process.
    5:27:30 You can’t just learn the whole thing up front.
    5:27:36 You can’t just sit down and read the language specification and then go like, ooh, like Neo.
    5:27:37 Now I know Kung Fu.
    5:27:38 Now I know Ruby.
    5:27:39 It doesn’t download that way.
    5:27:43 You actually have to type it out in Anchor on a real program.
    5:27:45 Yeah, yeah, for sure.
    5:27:46 So I would start there.
    5:27:52 But then number two, I probably would be JavaScript because JavaScript just is the language you need to know
    5:27:54 if you want to work with the web.
    5:27:57 And the web is the greatest application platform of all time.
    5:28:02 If you’re making business software, collaboration software, all this kind of stuff.
    5:28:07 If you’re making video games, you should probably go off and learn C++ or C or something else like that.
    5:28:11 But if you’re in the realm of web applications, you’ve got to learn JavaScript.
    5:28:14 Regardless of what else you learn, you’ve got to learn JavaScript.
    5:28:24 So if you’re learning Ruby, what does Ruby not have in terms of programming concepts that you would need other languages for?
    5:28:32 I don’t know if there’s any concepts missing, but it doesn’t have the speed or the low-level access of memory manipulation
    5:28:36 that you would need to build a 3D gaming engine, for example.
    5:28:37 No one’s going to build that in Ruby.
    5:28:43 You can build quite low-level stuff when it comes to web technologies in Ruby.
    5:28:48 But at some point, you’re going to hit the limit, and you should use something else.
    5:28:50 I’m not someone who prescribed just Ruby for everything.
    5:28:57 Once you reach the level of abstraction that’s involved with web applications, Ruby is superb.
    5:29:03 But if you’re writing, for example, an HTTP proxy, Go is great for that.
    5:29:09 We’ve written quite a few HTTP proxies lately at the company for various reasons, including our cloud exit and so forth.
    5:29:13 And Kevin, one of the programs I’m working with, he writes all of that in Go.
    5:29:18 Go just have the primitives and it has the pace and the speed to do that really well.
    5:29:21 I highly recommend it.
    5:29:24 If you’re writing an HTTP general proxy, do it in Go.
    5:29:25 Great language for that.
    5:29:27 Don’t write your business logic in Go.
    5:29:29 I know people do, but I don’t see the point in that.
    5:29:31 So what would you say there are three?
    5:29:34 So GoRuby, plus Rails, JavaScript.
    5:29:38 Yeah, if you’re interested in working with the web, I’d probably pick those three.
    5:29:40 Go, Ruby, and JavaScript.
    5:29:42 Go, Ruby, and JavaScript.
    5:29:42 Okay.
    5:29:43 Functional languages?
    5:29:44 Someone’s talking about OCaml.
    5:29:47 They are always going to show up.
    5:29:56 It must be some kind of OCaml industrial complex or something like this, but they always say mention OCaml.
    5:30:01 I love that there are people who love functional languages to that degree.
    5:30:03 Those people are not me.
    5:30:03 I don’t care at all.
    5:30:11 I care about functional principles when they help me in these isolated cases where that’s just better than everything else.
    5:30:14 But at heart, I’m an object-oriented guy.
    5:30:16 That’s just how I think about programs.
    5:30:17 That’s how I like to think about programs.
    5:30:22 That’s how I carve up a big problem space into a domain language.
    5:30:25 Objects are my jam.
    5:30:26 Yeah, me too.
    5:30:35 So I programmed in Lisp a bunch for AI applications for basic Othello chess engines, that kind of stuff.
    5:30:40 And I did try OCaml just to force myself to program just a very basic game of life.
    5:30:41 Yeah.
    5:30:41 A little simulation.
    5:30:44 It’s much…
    5:30:47 You know, Lisp is just parentheses everywhere.
    5:30:49 It’s actually not readable at all.
    5:30:52 That’s the problem I’ve had with Lisp.
    5:30:55 OCaml is very intuitive, very readable.
    5:30:55 That’s nice.
    5:30:58 I really should pick up a language like that at some point.
    5:31:05 I’ve been programming long enough that it’s a little embarrassing that I haven’t actually done anything real in anger in a fully functionally programmed language.
    5:31:07 Yeah, but I have to figure out…
    5:31:09 I’m sure there’s an answer to this.
    5:31:14 What can I do that will be useful for me that I actually want to build?
    5:31:16 That’s my problem.
    5:31:18 That a functional language is better suited for.
    5:31:19 That’s right.
    5:31:21 Because I really want to experience the language properly.
    5:31:22 That’s right.
    5:31:23 Yeah, because I’m still…
    5:31:24 Yeah, I’m very…
    5:31:26 At this point, I’m very object-oriented, brained.
    5:31:27 Yes.
    5:31:29 And that’s my problem, too.
    5:31:29 I just…
    5:31:34 I don’t care as much about these low-level problems in computer science.
    5:31:35 I care about the high level.
    5:31:37 I care about writing software.
    5:31:44 I care about the abstraction layer that really floats well with web applications and business logic.
    5:31:51 And I’ve come to accept that about myself, even though, as we talked about when I was a kid, I really wanted to become a games programmer.
    5:31:57 And then I saw what it took to write a collision detection engine, and I go like, yeah, that’s not me at all.
    5:32:02 I’m never going to be into vector matrix manipulation or any of that stuff.
    5:32:09 It’s way too much math, and I’m more of a writing person than I am of a math person.
    5:32:18 I mean, just in the way you were speaking today, you have like a poetic, literary approach to programming.
    5:32:19 Yes.
    5:32:19 Yeah.
    5:32:20 That’s interesting.
    5:32:21 That’s exactly right.
    5:32:27 So I did actually a keynote at RailsConf 10 years ago where I called myself a software writer.
    5:32:29 I mean, I’m not the first person to say that.
    5:32:32 Software writer has been in the vernacular for a long time.
    5:32:40 But the modern identity that most programmers adopt when they’re trying to be serious is software engineer.
    5:32:41 And I reject that label.
    5:32:43 I’m not an engineer.
    5:32:45 Occasionally, I dabble in some engineering.
    5:32:48 But the vast majority of the time, I’m a software writer.
    5:32:54 I write software for human consumption and for my own delight.
    5:33:04 I can get away with that because I’m working in a high-level language like Ruby, working on collaboration software and to-do lists and all the other stuff.
    5:33:12 Again, if I was trying to apply my talent to writing 3D game engines, no, that’s not the right mindset.
    5:33:14 That’s not the right identity.
    5:33:19 But I find that the software engineering identity flattens things a little bit.
    5:33:24 I’d like to think that we have software writers and software mathematicians, for example.
    5:33:31 And then those are actually richer ways of describing the abstraction level that you’re working at than engineer.
    5:33:42 Yeah, and I think if AI becomes more and more successful, I think we’ll need software writer skill more and more.
    5:33:47 Because it feels like that’s the realm of which, because it’s not writer.
    5:33:50 You’re going to have to do the software.
    5:33:53 You’re going to have to be a computer person.
    5:33:56 But there’s a more, I don’t know.
    5:33:59 I just don’t want to romanticize it, but it’s more poetic.
    5:34:00 It’s more literary.
    5:34:03 It’s more feels like writing a good blog post.
    5:34:07 I actually wish that AI had a bit higher standards for writing.
    5:34:13 I find the fact that it accepts my slobby, incomplete sentences a little offensive.
    5:34:20 I wish there was like a strict mode for AI where it would snap my fingers if it was just feeding it keywords.
    5:34:25 I’m like, speak proper, do pronunciation, do punctuation.
    5:34:27 Because I love that.
    5:34:38 I love crafting a just right sentence that hasn’t been boiled down that it has no meat on it, has no character in it.
    5:34:39 It’s succinct.
    5:34:41 It’s not overly flowery.
    5:34:47 It’s just that writing phase, to me, is just addictive.
    5:34:53 And I find that when programming is the best, it’s almost equivalent exactly to that.
    5:34:55 You also have to solve a problem.
    5:34:56 You’re not just communicating a solution.
    5:34:58 You have to actually figure out what are you trying to say.
    5:35:01 But even writing has that.
    5:35:06 Half the time when I start writing a blog post, I don’t know exactly which arguments I’m going to use.
    5:35:08 They develop as part of the writing process.
    5:35:11 And that’s how writing software happens, too.
    5:35:14 You know roughly the kind of problem you’re trying to solve.
    5:35:17 You don’t know exactly how you’re going to solve it.
    5:35:19 And as you start typing, the solution emerges.
    5:35:24 And actually, as far as I understand, you and Jason are working on a new book.
    5:35:27 It’s in the early days of that kind of topic.
    5:35:32 I think he tweeted that it’s going to be titled something like,
    5:35:36 we don’t know what we’re doing up front or something like that kind of topic.
    5:35:37 And you figure out along the way.
    5:35:39 That’s a big part of it.
    5:35:44 Trying to give more people the permission to trust their own instincts and their own gut.
    5:35:53 And realizing that developing that supercomputer in your stomach is actually the work of a career.
    5:36:05 And that you should not discard those feelings in preference to over, or not even complicated, to analytics, to intellectualism.
    5:36:11 Very often, when we look at the big decisions we’ve had to make, they’ve come from the gut.
    5:36:15 Where you cannot fully articulate, like, why do I think this is the right thing?
    5:36:18 Well, because I’ve been in this business for 20 years, and I’ve seen a bunch of things.
    5:36:22 I’ve talked to a bunch of people, and that is percolating into this being the right answer.
    5:36:30 A lot of people are very skeptical about that in business or unable to trust it because it feels like they can’t rationalize.
    5:36:31 Why are we doing something?
    5:36:32 Well, because I feel like it, damn it.
    5:36:41 That’s a great privilege of being a bootstrapped independent founder who don’t owe their business to someone else and doesn’t have to produce a return.
    5:36:50 Because I feel like a lot of the bullshit really creeps in when you’re trying to rationalize to other people why you do the things you do and why you take the decisions that you do.
    5:36:55 If you don’t have anyone to answer to, you are free to follow your gut.
    5:37:00 And that’s a hell of enjoyable way to work.
    5:37:04 And it’s also, very often, the correct way to work.
    5:37:05 Your gut knows a lot.
    5:37:09 Like, you can’t articulate it, but it’s spot on more times than not.
    5:37:12 Yeah, having to make a plan can be a paralyzing thing.
    5:37:15 I’ve often, I mean, I suppose there’s different kinds of brains.
    5:37:19 First of all, I can’t wait to read that book if it materializes.
    5:37:29 I often feel like in the more interesting things I do in my life, I really don’t know what I’m doing up front.
    5:37:36 And I think there’s a lot of people around me that care for me, that really want me to know what I’m doing.
    5:37:37 They’re like, what’s the plan?
    5:37:39 What’s the, why are you doing this crazy thing?
    5:37:43 And if I had to wait until I have a plan, I’m not going to do it.
    5:37:47 People, they have different brains on this kind of stuff.
    5:37:51 Some people really are planners and it maybe energizes them.
    5:38:01 But I think most creative pursuits, most really interesting, most novel pursuits are like, you kind of have to just take the leap and then just figure out as you go.
    5:38:08 My favorite essay in Rework is the last one and it’s entitled, Inspiration is Perishable.
    5:38:17 And I think that captures a lot of it, that if you take the time to do a detailed plan, you may very well have lost the inspiration by the time you’re done.
    5:38:27 If you follow the inspiration in that moment and trust your gut, trust your own competence that you will figure it out, you’re going to get so much more back.
    5:38:33 You’re going to go on the adventure you otherwise wouldn’t have, whether that’s just a business decision or a life decision.
    5:38:36 You have to seize that inspiration.
    5:38:45 There’s a great set of children’s books written by this Japanese author about chasing an idea and trying to get a hold of it.
    5:38:56 And it’s beautifully illustrated as an idea, as something that’s floating around, as something you have to catch and latch onto, that I really feel captures this notion that inspiration is perishable.
    5:39:02 It’ll disappear if you just put it back on the shelf and say like, well, I got to be diligent about this.
    5:39:03 I got to line up a plan.
    5:39:07 You may run out and then there’s no steam to keep going.
    5:39:11 I have to ask you about open source.
    5:39:16 What does it take to run a successful open source project?
    5:39:21 You’ve spoken about that it’s a misconception that open source is democratic.
    5:39:23 It’s actually meritocratic.
    5:39:26 That’s a beautiful way to put it.
    5:39:31 So there’s often is a kind of a benevolent dictator at top.
    5:39:32 Often.
    5:39:34 So can you just speak to that?
    5:39:40 Having run successful open source projects yourself and being a benevolent dictator yourself?
    5:39:45 Which is going to be a bit of a biased piece of evidence here.
    5:39:48 But why monarchy is best?
    5:39:52 You should definitely have dictators and they should control everything, especially when the dictator is me.
    5:40:02 Now, well, I think I learned very early on that a quick way to burn out in open source is to treat it as a business.
    5:40:11 As though you’re users or customers, as though they have claims of legitimacy on your time and your attention and your direction.
    5:40:15 Because I faced this almost immediately with Ruby on Rails.
    5:40:21 As soon as it was released, there were a million people who had all sorts of opinions about where I ought to take it.
    5:40:24 And not just opinions, but actually demands.
    5:40:29 Unless you implement an Oracle database adapter, this is always going to be a toy.
    5:40:41 It was actually more or less that exact demand that prompted me to have a slide at one of the early Rails conferences that just said, fuck you.
    5:40:42 Yeah, I saw that.
    5:40:44 I’m not going to do what you tell me to.
    5:40:47 I’m here as a bringer of gift.
    5:40:53 I am sharing code that I wrote on my own time, on my own volition.
    5:40:56 And you don’t have to say thank you.
    5:40:57 I mean, be nice if you did.
    5:41:00 You can take the code and do whatever you want with it.
    5:41:02 You can contribute back if you want.
    5:41:06 But you can’t tell me what to do or where to go or how to act.
    5:41:08 I’m not a vendor.
    5:41:19 This is a fundamental misconception that users of open source occasionally step into because they’re used to buying software from companies who really care about their business.
    5:41:22 I care about people using my software.
    5:41:23 I think it’s great.
    5:41:26 But we don’t have a transactional relationship.
    5:41:31 I don’t get something back when you tell me what to do except grief.
    5:41:34 And I don’t want it so you can keep it.
    5:41:40 So my open source philosophy from the start has been I got to do this primarily for me.
    5:41:44 I love when other people find use in my open source.
    5:41:45 It’s not my primary motivation.
    5:41:48 I’m not primarily doing it for other people.
    5:41:50 I’m primarily doing it for me and my own objectives.
    5:41:58 Because as Adam Smith said, it’s not for the benevolence of the butcher that we expect our daily meat.
    5:42:01 It’s for his self-interest.
    5:42:12 And I actually find that to be a beautiful thought, that our comments increase in value when we all pursue our self-interest, certainly in the realm of open source.
    5:42:20 This is also why I reject this notion that open source is in some sort of crisis, that there’s a funding crisis, that we have to spend more.
    5:42:21 No, we don’t.
    5:42:22 Open source has never been doing better.
    5:42:27 Open source has never controlled more domains in software than it has right now.
    5:42:29 There is no crisis.
    5:42:38 There’s a misconception from some people making open source and from a lot of people using open source that open source is primarily like commercial software.
    5:42:45 Something you buy and something where you can then make demands as a customer and that the customer is always right.
    5:42:47 Customer is not always right.
    5:42:50 Not even in business, but certainly not in open source.
    5:42:54 In open source, the customer, as it is, is a receiver of gifts.
    5:42:57 We are having a gift exchange.
    5:42:59 I show up and give you my code.
    5:43:01 If you like it, you can use it.
    5:43:08 And if you have some code that fits in with where I’m going with this, I would love to get those gifts back.
    5:43:10 And we can keep trading like that.
    5:43:11 I give you more gifts.
    5:43:16 Together, we pool all the gifts such that someone’s showing up brand new.
    5:43:18 Just get a mountain of gifts.
    5:43:26 This is the magic thing of open source is it increases the total sum value of what’s in the comments when we all pursue our own self-interest.
    5:43:28 So I’m building things for Rails that I need.
    5:43:29 And you know what?
    5:43:31 You want me to do that.
    5:43:36 You do not want me to build things that I don’t need on behalf of other people because I’ll do a crap job.
    5:43:43 I build much better software when I can evaluate the quality of that software by my own use.
    5:43:46 I need this feature.
    5:43:48 I’m going to build a good version of that feature.
    5:43:50 And I’m going to build just enough just for me.
    5:43:51 So I’m not going to bloat it.
    5:43:54 I’m not trying to attract a customer here.
    5:43:55 I’m not trying to see some angle.
    5:43:58 I’m just building what I need.
    5:44:09 And if you go into open source with that mentality that you’re building for you and everything else is a bonus, I think you have all the ingredients to go to distance.
    5:44:15 I think the people who burn out in open source is when they go in thinking, I’m making all these gifts.
    5:44:18 I don’t really need them myself, but I’m like hoping someone else does.
    5:44:20 And maybe they’ll also give me some money.
    5:44:22 That’s a losing proposition.
    5:44:23 It never basically works.
    5:44:26 If you want money for your software, you should just sell it.
    5:44:32 We have a perfectly fine model of commercial software that people can make that kind and then they can sell it.
    5:44:36 But I find a lot of confusion.
    5:44:38 Let’s just call it that politely.
    5:44:41 In open source contributors who want to have their cake needed to.
    5:44:44 They like the mode of working with open source.
    5:44:47 They maybe even like the status that comes from open source.
    5:44:50 But they also would like to earn a living from making that open source.
    5:45:02 And therefore they occasionally end up with the kind of grievances that someone who feels underappreciated or at work will develop when others aren’t doing enough to recognize their great gifts.
    5:45:04 And then they might walk away.
    5:45:13 I wish I had one of the, I wish I had more insight into their mind state of the individual people that are running these projects.
    5:45:19 Like if they’re feeling sad or they need more money or they’re like, it’s just such a dark box.
    5:45:20 It can be.
    5:45:27 I mean, of course there’s some communication, but I just, I just sadly see too often they just kind of walk away.
    5:45:27 Right.
    5:45:31 And I think that’s actually also part of the beauty of open source.
    5:45:35 You are not obligated to do this code forever.
    5:45:38 You’re obligated to do this for as long as you want to do it.
    5:45:40 That’s basically your own obligation.
    5:45:41 But there is, I know.
    5:45:42 Okay.
    5:45:44 So you might criticize this and push back.
    5:45:48 You did write a blog post on forever until the end of the internet with to that list.
    5:45:53 There is a beautiful aspect and you found a good balance there.
    5:45:56 But I don’t know.
    5:45:59 You’re bringing so much joy to people with this thing you created.
    5:46:04 It’s not an obligation, but there’s a real beauty to taking care of this thing you’ve created.
    5:46:05 There is.
    5:46:06 And not forgetting.
    5:46:11 I think we, I think what the open source creator is not seeing enough.
    5:46:17 I mean, there’s like, how many lives you’re making better.
    5:46:20 There’s certain pieces of software that I just quietly use a lot.
    5:46:21 Yes.
    5:46:24 And like, they bring my life joy.
    5:46:26 And I wish I could communicate that well.
    5:46:29 There’s ways to donate, but it’s inefficient.
    5:46:31 It’s usually hard to donate.
    5:46:32 It is.
    5:46:36 There’s some ways for some people that made it easier.
    5:46:38 GitHub donations is one way of doing it.
    5:46:41 I donate to a few people, even though I don’t love the paradigm.
    5:46:44 I also accept that we can have multiple paradigms.
    5:46:49 I accept that I can do open source for one set of motivations and other people can do open source for other motivations.
    5:46:52 We don’t all have to do it the same way.
    5:46:59 But I do want to counter the misconception that open source is somehow in a crisis, unless we all start paying for open source.
    5:47:00 That model already exists.
    5:47:02 It’s commercial software.
    5:47:03 It works very well.
    5:47:06 And plenty of great companies have been built off the back of it.
    5:47:08 And the expectations are very clear.
    5:47:11 I pay you this amount and I get this software.
    5:47:15 Open source, once you start mixing money into it, gets real muddy real fast.
    5:47:19 And a lot of it is just from those misaligned expectations.
    5:47:30 That if you feel like you’re starving artists as an open source developer, and you are owed X amount of money because your software is popular, you’re delusional.
    5:47:32 And you need to knock that off.
    5:47:37 Just get back on track where you realize that you’re putting gifts into the world.
    5:47:41 And if you get something back in terms of monetary compensation, okay, that’s a bonus.
    5:47:46 But if you need that money back in terms of monetary compensation, you should just charge for software.
    5:47:50 Or go work for a software company that will employ you to do open source.
    5:47:50 There’s tons of that.
    5:47:56 That is probably actually the primary mode that open source software is being developed in the world today.
    5:48:01 Commercial companies making open source that they need themselves and then contributing it back.
    5:48:05 So I’m glad you brought up, sort of like drew some hard lines here.
    5:48:06 It’s a good moment to bring up.
    5:48:15 What I think is the, maybe one of the greatest open source projects ever, WordPress.
    5:48:27 And you spoke up in October 24 about some of the stuff that’s been going on with WordPress’s founder, Matt Mullenweg.
    5:48:39 In a blog post, open source royalty and mad kings is a really good blog post on sort of just the idea of benevolent dictators for life, this model for open source projects.
    5:48:49 And then the basic implication was that Matt, as the BDFL of WordPress, has lost his way a bit with his battle with WP Engine.
    5:48:54 So I should also say that I really love WordPress.
    5:48:55 It brings me joy.
    5:48:59 I think it’s a really, it’s a beacon of what open source could be.
    5:49:03 I think it’s made the internet better.
    5:49:07 A lot, a lot of people to create wonderful websites.
    5:49:17 And I also think, now you might disagree with this, but from everything I’ve seen, WP Engine just gives me bad vibes.
    5:49:22 I think they’re not a good, the good guy in this.
    5:49:23 I don’t like it.
    5:49:25 I understand the frustration.
    5:49:29 I understand all of it, but I don’t think that excuses the behavior.
    5:49:41 There is a bit of, see, this kind of counter to a little bit what you said, which is, when you have an open source project of that size, there is a bit of a, like when you’re the king.
    5:49:48 That, for a project of a kingdom that large, there’s a bit of responsibility.
    5:50:07 Anyway, could you speak to your, maybe to your empathy of Matt and to your criticism and what, and maybe paint a path of how he and WordPress can be winning again.
    5:50:14 First, I’ll echo what you said about what a wonderful thing it is that WordPress exists.
    5:50:22 There are not many projects in the open source world or in the world at large that has had as big of an impact on the internet as WordPress has.
    5:50:26 He deserves a ton of accolades for that work.
    5:50:30 So that was my engagement, essentially, my premise.
    5:50:31 Do you know what?
    5:50:39 I had tremendous respect for what Matt has built with WordPress, what that entire ecosystem has built around itself.
    5:50:40 It’s a true marvel.
    5:50:47 But there’s some principles that are larger than my personal sympathies to the characters involved.
    5:50:48 I agree.
    5:50:55 The Silver Lake private equity company that’s involved with WP Engine is not my natural ally.
    5:51:03 I’m not the natural ally of private equity doing some game with WP Engine.
    5:51:07 That’s not my interest in the case.
    5:51:11 My interest is essentially a set of principles.
    5:51:26 And the principles are, if you release something as open source, people are free to use it as they see fit, and they are free to donate code or resources or money back to the community as they see fit.
    5:51:48 You may disagree about whether they’ve done enough, whether they should do more, but you can’t show up after you’ve given the gift of free software to the world and then say, now that you’ve used that gift, you actually owe me a huge lot of your business because you got too successful using the thing I gave you for free.
    5:51:50 You don’t get to take a gift back.
    5:51:53 That’s why we have open source licenses.
    5:51:58 They stipulate exactly what the obligations are on both sides of the equation.
    5:52:03 The users of open source don’t get to demand what the makers of open source do and how they act.
    5:52:12 And the makers of open source don’t get to suddenly show up with a ransom note to the users and say, actually, you owe me for all sorts of use.
    5:52:17 And I’m 100% allergic to that kind of interaction.
    5:52:30 And I think Matt, unfortunately, for whatever reason, got so wrapped up in what he was owed that he failed to realize what he was destroying.
    5:52:34 WordPress and automatic already makes a ton of money.
    5:52:36 This is part of the wonder of WordPress.
    5:52:40 This is a project that generates hundreds of millions of dollars.
    5:52:44 And Matt didn’t feel like he was getting enough of that.
    5:52:47 That’s not a good argument, bro.
    5:52:58 You can’t just violate the spirit and the letter of these open source licenses and just start showing up with demand letters, even to characters that are not particularly sympathetic.
    5:53:03 This goes to the root of my interpretation of open source in general.
    5:53:13 The GPL is a particular license that actually demands code from people who use it under certain circumstances.
    5:53:15 I’ve never liked the GPL.
    5:53:18 I don’t want your shitty code if you don’t want to give it to me.
    5:53:20 What am I going to do with that?
    5:53:22 Some code dump that you’ve…
    5:53:26 I’m not on board with that part of Stallman’s vision at all.
    5:53:28 I love the MIT license.
    5:53:30 To me, that is the perfect license.
    5:53:32 It is mercifully short.
    5:53:35 I think it’s two paragraphs, three paragraphs.
    5:53:36 Really short.
    5:53:39 And it basically says, here’s some software.
    5:53:41 It comes with no warranty.
    5:53:43 You can’t sue me.
    5:53:44 You can’t demand anything.
    5:53:46 But you can do whatever the hell you want with it.
    5:53:48 Have a nice life.
    5:53:52 That’s a perfect open source interaction, in my opinion.
    5:53:55 And that license needs to be upheld.
    5:53:57 These licenses in general, even the GPL,
    5:53:59 even if I don’t like it,
    5:54:01 we have to abide by them.
    5:54:03 Because if we just set aside those licenses,
    5:54:04 when we, in a moment’s notice,
    5:54:06 feel like something slightly unfair,
    5:54:08 we’ve lost everything.
    5:54:10 We’ve lost the entire framework
    5:54:12 that allowed open source to prosper
    5:54:13 and allowed open source to
    5:54:16 become such an integral part of commerce, too.
    5:54:18 I mean, back when open source was initially
    5:54:20 finding its feet,
    5:54:23 it was at war with commercial software.
    5:54:25 Stallman is at war with commercial software
    5:54:26 and always has been.
    5:54:29 Bill Gates was in return at war
    5:54:31 with open source for the longest time.
    5:54:34 The open source licensees and the clarity
    5:54:37 that they provide allowed us to end that war.
    5:54:39 Today, commercial software
    5:54:41 and open source software can peacefully coexist.
    5:54:43 I make commercial software,
    5:54:44 I sell Basecamp,
    5:54:44 I sell Hay,
    5:54:47 and then I also make a bunch of open source software
    5:54:48 that I give away for free as gifts.
    5:54:51 That can’t happen
    5:54:53 if we start violating these contracts.
    5:54:56 No commercial company is going to go,
    5:54:57 let me base my next project
    5:54:59 off this piece of open source
    5:55:00 if I’m also running the liability
    5:55:02 that some mad maker
    5:55:03 is going to show up
    5:55:05 seven years in
    5:55:07 and demand I give them $50 million.
    5:55:10 That’s not an environment
    5:55:12 conducive to commerce,
    5:55:13 collaboration,
    5:55:14 or anything else.
    5:55:15 And it’s just basically wrong.
    5:55:17 I think there’s one analysis
    5:55:17 that’s all about
    5:55:20 kind of the practical outcomes of this,
    5:55:20 which I think are bad.
    5:55:21 There’s also some,
    5:55:23 an argument that’s simply
    5:55:24 about ethics.
    5:55:26 This is not right.
    5:55:28 You can’t just show up afterwards
    5:55:29 and demand something.
    5:55:30 This is not too dissimilar,
    5:55:31 in my opinion,
    5:55:32 to the whole Apple thing
    5:55:33 we talked about earlier.
    5:55:34 Apple just showing up
    5:55:35 and feeling like
    5:55:36 they’re entitled
    5:55:37 to 30% of everyone’s business.
    5:55:38 No.
    5:55:41 That’s not right.
    5:55:42 That’s not fair.
    5:55:45 So I think Matt,
    5:55:45 unfortunately,
    5:55:47 kind of
    5:55:49 steered himself blind
    5:55:51 on the indignity
    5:55:52 he thought
    5:55:53 was being perpetrated
    5:55:53 against him
    5:55:54 because there was
    5:55:56 all this money being made
    5:55:56 by VP Engine
    5:55:58 making a good product
    5:55:59 and not giving
    5:56:00 quite enough back
    5:56:01 in Matt’s opinion.
    5:56:04 Tough, tough cookie.
    5:56:05 I think there,
    5:56:06 maybe I’m reading
    5:56:07 too much into it,
    5:56:08 but there might be
    5:56:09 some personal stuff too,
    5:56:09 which they weren’t
    5:56:11 not only not giving enough,
    5:56:12 but probably
    5:56:14 implicitly promising
    5:56:15 that they will give
    5:56:18 and then taking advantage
    5:56:19 of him in that way
    5:56:20 in his mind.
    5:56:21 Just like
    5:56:22 interpersonal interaction.
    5:56:23 Sure.
    5:56:24 and then you get
    5:56:26 interpersonally frustrated.
    5:56:27 I get that.
    5:56:27 You forget
    5:56:28 the bigger picture
    5:56:29 ethics of it.
    5:56:29 It’s like
    5:56:30 when a guy
    5:56:31 keeps saying,
    5:56:33 promising he’ll do something.
    5:56:33 Sure.
    5:56:35 And then you realize
    5:56:36 you wake up one day
    5:56:37 like a year or two later,
    5:56:38 wait a minute,
    5:56:40 I was being lied to
    5:56:41 this whole time.
    5:56:42 And that,
    5:56:43 I don’t even know
    5:56:43 if it’s about money.
    5:56:45 I’d get mad too.
    5:56:46 It’s totally fine
    5:56:47 to get mad
    5:56:48 when people disappoint you.
    5:56:49 That’s not justification
    5:56:52 for upending decades
    5:56:53 of open source
    5:56:55 licensees
    5:56:57 and the essential
    5:56:58 de facto case law
    5:56:59 we’ve established around it.
    5:57:01 This is why I chose
    5:57:02 to even weigh in on this
    5:57:04 because I like WordPress.
    5:57:05 I don’t use WordPress.
    5:57:06 I’m not a part
    5:57:06 of that community.
    5:57:07 I don’t actually have
    5:57:10 a dog in this fight.
    5:57:10 I’m biased,
    5:57:11 if anything,
    5:57:12 towards Matt
    5:57:13 just as a fellow
    5:57:14 BDFL.
    5:57:16 I would like to see him
    5:57:17 do well with this,
    5:57:17 but I also think
    5:57:18 there’s some principles
    5:57:19 at stake here
    5:57:21 that ring much louder.
    5:57:22 I don’t want Rails
    5:57:25 to suddenly be tainted
    5:57:26 by the fact
    5:57:26 that it’s open source
    5:57:28 and whether companies
    5:57:28 can rely on it
    5:57:30 and build businesses on it
    5:57:30 because wait,
    5:57:31 maybe one day
    5:57:32 I’m going to turn Matt
    5:57:33 and I’m going to turn Matt King
    5:57:34 and I’m going to show up
    5:57:35 with a demand ransom letter.
    5:57:37 No, screw that.
    5:57:39 We have way more
    5:57:40 to protect here.
    5:57:41 There’s way more at stake
    5:57:43 than your personal beef
    5:57:44 with someone
    5:57:46 or your perceived grievance
    5:57:47 over what you’re owed.
    5:57:48 What would you recommend
    5:57:48 and what do you think
    5:57:49 you should do,
    5:57:50 can do,
    5:57:51 to walk it back
    5:57:52 to heal?
    5:57:56 Decide.
    5:57:59 This is the curious thing.
    5:57:59 He could decide
    5:58:01 to give this up.
    5:58:01 That’s very,
    5:58:02 very difficult
    5:58:03 for driven,
    5:58:04 ambitious people to do,
    5:58:06 to accept that they’re wrong
    5:58:07 and to give up
    5:58:08 and lay down their sword.
    5:58:10 So I had a hope
    5:58:11 earlier on in this
    5:58:12 that that was possible.
    5:58:14 I haven’t seen any evidence
    5:58:16 that Matt is interested in that
    5:58:18 and I find that deeply regretful,
    5:58:20 but that’s his prerogative.
    5:58:21 I continue to speak out
    5:58:23 when he’s violating
    5:58:24 the spirit and ethics
    5:58:25 of open source,
    5:58:27 but I wish he would just
    5:58:29 accept that this was
    5:58:30 a really bad idea.
    5:58:31 He just,
    5:58:32 he made a bad bet
    5:58:32 and I thought,
    5:58:34 I think he thought
    5:58:35 he’d just get away with it,
    5:58:37 that they’d just pay up
    5:58:39 and that he could put pressure.
    5:58:40 I mean,
    5:58:41 I know that temptation.
    5:58:43 When you sit as the head
    5:58:44 of a very important project,
    5:58:46 you know
    5:58:47 that that comes
    5:58:48 with a great degree
    5:58:49 of power
    5:58:50 and you really need
    5:58:52 a great degree
    5:58:52 of discipline
    5:58:54 to rein that in
    5:58:55 and not exercise
    5:58:56 that power
    5:58:57 at every step
    5:58:58 where you feel aggrieved.
    5:58:59 I’ve felt aggrieved
    5:59:00 a million times over
    5:59:02 in the 20 plus years
    5:59:03 of Ruby and Rails.
    5:59:05 I’ve really tried
    5:59:06 very hard
    5:59:07 not to let those
    5:59:08 sometimes petty,
    5:59:09 sometimes substantial
    5:59:11 grievances over time
    5:59:13 seep in
    5:59:14 to the foundation
    5:59:15 of the ecosystem
    5:59:18 and risk ruining everything.
    5:59:19 As the king
    5:59:20 of the Rails kingdom,
    5:59:21 has the power
    5:59:21 gotten to your head
    5:59:22 over the years?
    5:59:23 I’m sure it has.
    5:59:24 I mean,
    5:59:25 who wouldn’t?
    5:59:26 Do you pace around
    5:59:27 in your chamber?
    5:59:29 I do.
    5:59:30 Occasionally.
    5:59:33 And I do marvel
    5:59:34 at both
    5:59:34 what’s been built,
    5:59:35 what’s been possible.
    5:59:37 Over a million applications
    5:59:37 have been made
    5:59:38 with Ruby on Rails
    5:59:39 by one estimate
    5:59:39 that I’ve seen.
    5:59:41 Businesses like Shopify
    5:59:42 and GitHub
    5:59:44 and a million others
    5:59:45 have been built
    5:59:46 on top of something
    5:59:47 that I started.
    5:59:48 That’s very gratifying.
    5:59:50 But
    5:59:52 you really have to be careful
    5:59:53 not to smell
    5:59:54 your own exhaust too much.
    5:59:55 And you have to be
    5:59:56 just as careful
    5:59:57 not to listen
    5:59:58 too much
    5:59:58 to the haters
    6:00:00 and not
    6:00:01 to listen
    6:00:01 too much
    6:00:02 to the super fans
    6:00:02 either.
    6:00:03 That
    6:00:04 you assess
    6:00:05 the
    6:00:06 value
    6:00:07 and
    6:00:08 the
    6:00:09 sort of principles
    6:00:10 of what you’re
    6:00:11 working towards
    6:00:12 on its own merits.
    6:00:14 On your own scoreboard.
    6:00:15 I try to
    6:00:17 block that out
    6:00:18 and then just go
    6:00:19 well
    6:00:20 I’m working on Rails
    6:00:22 because I love to write Ruby.
    6:00:23 I love to
    6:00:25 use Ruby
    6:00:26 to make web applications.
    6:00:27 That’s my North Star
    6:00:29 and I’ll continue to do that
    6:00:30 and I’ll continue to share
    6:00:32 all of the open source GIFs
    6:00:33 that I
    6:00:35 uncover along the ways.
    6:00:37 And that’s it.
    6:00:38 That’s enough too.
    6:00:39 I don’t have to get
    6:00:39 all of it
    6:00:40 out of it.
    6:00:42 This is sometimes
    6:00:44 just as with the guy
    6:00:44 who thought
    6:00:45 I’d given up
    6:00:46 on being Jira
    6:00:47 or something
    6:00:48 instead of doing Basecamp.
    6:00:49 There are people
    6:00:50 over the years
    6:00:50 who’ve asked like
    6:00:52 why didn’t you charge
    6:00:52 for Rails?
    6:00:52 Like
    6:00:53 don’t you know
    6:00:54 how much money
    6:00:54 have been made
    6:00:55 off Rails?
    6:00:56 If we just look
    6:00:56 at something like
    6:00:57 Shopify
    6:00:58 it’s worth
    6:00:59 billions of dollars.
    6:01:00 I’m not a billionaire
    6:01:02 and so freaking what?
    6:01:04 I got more than enough.
    6:01:05 I got plenty
    6:01:05 of my share.
    6:01:07 I will say though
    6:01:08 I’m also
    6:01:11 introspective enough
    6:01:12 to realize
    6:01:12 that if it hadn’t
    6:01:13 panned out as well
    6:01:14 as it did for me
    6:01:15 on my own business
    6:01:16 maybe I would have
    6:01:17 been more tempted.
    6:01:18 Maybe
    6:01:19 if you see other people
    6:01:20 build huge successful
    6:01:22 companies off the back
    6:01:22 of your work
    6:01:23 and you really
    6:01:24 don’t have a
    6:01:26 pot to piss in
    6:01:27 you might
    6:01:28 be tempted
    6:01:29 to get a little
    6:01:30 upset about that.
    6:01:31 I’ve seen that
    6:01:32 in the Rails world
    6:01:32 as well
    6:01:33 where there are people
    6:01:34 who contributed
    6:01:35 substantial bodies
    6:01:36 of work
    6:01:37 and then got
    6:01:38 really miffed
    6:01:39 when they didn’t
    6:01:40 feel like they
    6:01:41 got enough back.
    6:01:42 I was fortunate enough
    6:01:43 that the business
    6:01:44 that Jason and I
    6:01:45 built with Ruby on Rails
    6:01:46 was as successful
    6:01:46 as it was
    6:01:47 and I made the money
    6:01:48 I needed to make
    6:01:49 that I didn’t need
    6:01:50 to chase
    6:01:51 the rest of it.
    6:01:53 But we should also
    6:01:54 just make explicit
    6:01:56 that many people
    6:01:57 in your position
    6:01:58 chase
    6:02:01 the money.
    6:02:02 It’s not that
    6:02:03 difficult to chase.
    6:02:04 Basically you
    6:02:05 turned away money.
    6:02:06 you made a lot
    6:02:06 of decisions
    6:02:07 that just
    6:02:08 turn away money.
    6:02:09 Maybe.
    6:02:10 I also think of
    6:02:13 this example
    6:02:13 with Matt.
    6:02:14 He probably thought
    6:02:15 there was easy money
    6:02:16 for the taking
    6:02:17 and it wasn’t
    6:02:17 so easy was it?
    6:02:18 It looked like
    6:02:20 low-hanging dollar bills
    6:02:21 and they turned out
    6:02:22 to be some really
    6:02:22 sour grapes.
    6:02:23 It turned out
    6:02:24 he turned
    6:02:26 he probably destroyed
    6:02:27 vast sums
    6:02:28 of money
    6:02:29 by undermining
    6:02:29 the whole
    6:02:30 WordPress
    6:02:31 trust
    6:02:32 and the ecosystem
    6:02:33 and putting
    6:02:34 question marks
    6:02:35 in the heads
    6:02:36 of folks
    6:02:36 who would
    6:02:37 choose to use
    6:02:37 WordPress
    6:02:38 or something else
    6:02:38 going forward.
    6:02:41 So I often think
    6:02:41 when people think
    6:02:42 like oh you left
    6:02:43 money on the table
    6:02:44 first of all
    6:02:44 so what?
    6:02:45 I don’t have to
    6:02:45 have all the money
    6:02:46 but second of all
    6:02:47 maybe the money
    6:02:48 wasn’t on the table
    6:02:48 at all.
    6:02:49 and maybe the cost
    6:02:51 even if you got
    6:02:51 the money
    6:02:52 maybe the cost
    6:02:53 in other ways
    6:02:54 like we’ve talked
    6:02:55 about
    6:02:56 would outweigh
    6:02:56 all the money
    6:02:57 that you could
    6:02:57 have possibly
    6:02:58 gotten
    6:02:59 meaning like
    6:03:00 I think you said
    6:03:01 that the thing
    6:03:01 that makes you
    6:03:02 happy
    6:03:04 is flow
    6:03:05 and tranquility
    6:03:06 those two things
    6:03:07 beautifully
    6:03:08 really beautifully
    6:03:08 put
    6:03:10 and you know
    6:03:12 gaining money
    6:03:12 might
    6:03:13 assign to you
    6:03:14 responsibility
    6:03:14 of running
    6:03:15 a larger thing
    6:03:17 that takes away
    6:03:19 the flow
    6:03:20 that you gain
    6:03:20 from being
    6:03:22 from fundamentally
    6:03:23 for you
    6:03:24 what flow means
    6:03:24 is programming
    6:03:26 and then tranquility
    6:03:27 is like
    6:03:28 I think you also
    6:03:29 have a beautiful
    6:03:30 post of like
    6:03:31 nirvana
    6:03:32 is an empty schedule.
    6:03:34 When I look at
    6:03:35 an upcoming week
    6:03:36 and I see that
    6:03:37 I have no scheduled
    6:03:37 meetings at all
    6:03:38 which is quite common
    6:03:39 or maybe I just have
    6:03:40 one thing
    6:03:40 for one hour
    6:03:41 on one day
    6:03:43 I think to myself
    6:03:43 do you know what
    6:03:45 this could very easily
    6:03:45 have been very different
    6:03:46 we could have been
    6:03:47 running a company
    6:03:48 of hundreds of people
    6:03:49 or thousands of people
    6:03:50 and my entire calendar
    6:03:51 would have been
    6:03:52 packed solid
    6:03:54 with little Tetris blocks
    6:03:55 of other people’s
    6:03:56 demands
    6:03:57 on my attention
    6:03:57 and time
    6:03:58 and I would have
    6:03:59 been miserable
    6:03:59 as fuck
    6:04:01 and I look at that
    6:04:02 and go like
    6:04:04 what more
    6:04:04 can I
    6:04:06 ask for
    6:04:07 which is a
    6:04:08 really nice
    6:04:08 state of being
    6:04:09 I’d actually say
    6:04:10 I didn’t have
    6:04:11 this always
    6:04:12 I did have
    6:04:14 early on in my career
    6:04:14 some sense of
    6:04:16 I need a little
    6:04:16 more
    6:04:17 a little more
    6:04:17 security
    6:04:19 and I
    6:04:20 remember this
    6:04:21 really interesting
    6:04:21 study
    6:04:22 where a bunch
    6:04:23 of researchers
    6:04:24 asked people
    6:04:25 who had made
    6:04:25 certain amounts
    6:04:26 of money
    6:04:26 how much money
    6:04:27 would it take
    6:04:28 for you to feel
    6:04:29 secure
    6:04:30 they’d ask people
    6:04:31 who had a million
    6:04:32 dollars net worth
    6:04:32 how much money
    6:04:32 do you need
    6:04:34 probably need
    6:04:34 two million
    6:04:35 two million
    6:04:36 then it’d be good
    6:04:37 then they ask
    6:04:38 people with a net worth
    6:04:38 of five million
    6:04:39 how much do you need
    6:04:40 ten
    6:04:41 I need ten
    6:04:42 ask people
    6:04:43 with ten million
    6:04:43 what do you need
    6:04:44 twenty
    6:04:45 every single time
    6:04:46 people would need
    6:04:47 double of what they did
    6:04:48 I did that
    6:04:48 for a couple
    6:04:49 of doublings
    6:04:50 until I realized
    6:04:50 you know what
    6:04:51 this is silly
    6:04:52 I am already
    6:04:53 where I wished
    6:04:54 I would be
    6:04:55 and a million times
    6:04:55 over
    6:04:56 so
    6:04:58 what less
    6:04:58 is there
    6:04:59 to pursue
    6:04:59 now
    6:05:00 that doesn’t
    6:05:00 mean that
    6:05:01 if more money
    6:05:02 is coming my way
    6:05:03 I’m gonna say
    6:05:03 no to it
    6:05:04 of course not
    6:05:04 but
    6:05:05 it does mean
    6:05:06 that I’m free
    6:05:07 to set other
    6:05:08 things higher
    6:05:09 and I also do
    6:05:10 think you realize
    6:05:11 as Jim Carrey
    6:05:12 would say
    6:05:13 I wish everyone
    6:05:14 would get all
    6:05:14 the money
    6:05:15 that they wished
    6:05:15 for and they’d
    6:05:16 realize it
    6:05:16 wasn’t the answer
    6:05:17 that money
    6:05:18 solves a whole
    6:05:19 host of
    6:05:20 problems
    6:05:22 and anxieties
    6:05:22 and then it
    6:05:23 creates a bunch
    6:05:23 of new ones
    6:05:24 and then it
    6:05:25 also doesn’t
    6:05:27 touch a huge
    6:05:28 swath of the
    6:05:29 human experience
    6:05:29 at all
    6:05:30 the world
    6:05:30 is full
    6:05:31 of miserable
    6:05:33 anxious
    6:05:34 hurt
    6:05:34 rich people
    6:05:36 it’s also
    6:05:37 full of
    6:05:37 miserable
    6:05:38 anxious
    6:05:38 poor
    6:05:38 people
    6:05:39 and I’d
    6:05:39 rather be
    6:05:39 a miserable
    6:05:40 anxious
    6:05:40 rich
    6:05:41 person
    6:05:41 than a poor
    6:05:41 person
    6:05:42 but it isn’t
    6:05:43 this magic wand
    6:05:44 that make
    6:05:44 everything go
    6:05:45 away
    6:05:45 and that’s
    6:05:46 again one
    6:05:46 of those
    6:05:48 insights
    6:05:49 just like
    6:05:50 having children
    6:05:50 that you
    6:05:51 cannot communicate
    6:05:51 in words
    6:05:52 I’ve never
    6:05:52 been able
    6:05:53 to persuade
    6:05:54 a person
    6:05:55 who’s not
    6:05:55 wealthy
    6:05:56 that wealth
    6:05:56 wasn’t going
    6:05:57 to solve
    6:05:57 all their
    6:05:58 problems
    6:05:59 one quote
    6:05:59 you’ve returned
    6:06:00 to often
    6:06:00 that I enjoy
    6:06:01 a lot
    6:06:01 is the
    6:06:02 Coco Chanel
    6:06:03 of the
    6:06:04 best things
    6:06:05 in life
    6:06:05 are free
    6:06:08 and the
    6:06:08 second best
    6:06:08 things are
    6:06:09 very very
    6:06:09 expensive
    6:06:11 and I guess
    6:06:11 the task
    6:06:13 is to
    6:06:15 focus on
    6:06:17 surrounding
    6:06:17 yourself with
    6:06:17 the best
    6:06:18 things in
    6:06:18 life like
    6:06:19 family and
    6:06:20 all of this
    6:06:20 and not
    6:06:21 caring about
    6:06:21 the other
    6:06:22 stuff
    6:06:22 I would
    6:06:23 even say
    6:06:23 you can
    6:06:24 care about
    6:06:24 the other
    6:06:24 stuff
    6:06:25 just know
    6:06:26 the order
    6:06:27 of priority
    6:06:28 if you
    6:06:28 are blessed
    6:06:29 with
    6:06:31 a partner
    6:06:32 that you
    6:06:32 love
    6:06:33 some
    6:06:33 children
    6:06:34 that you
    6:06:35 adore
    6:06:35 you’ve
    6:06:36 already
    6:06:37 won the
    6:06:37 greatest
    6:06:38 prize
    6:06:38 that
    6:06:39 most
    6:06:40 humans
    6:06:41 are able
    6:06:41 to achieve
    6:06:43 most humans
    6:06:43 in this
    6:06:44 world
    6:06:44 if they
    6:06:45 are of
    6:06:46 marital age
    6:06:46 and they
    6:06:47 have children
    6:06:48 if you
    6:06:48 ask them
    6:06:48 what’s the
    6:06:49 most important
    6:06:49 thing
    6:06:49 they would
    6:06:50 all say
    6:06:50 that
    6:06:51 they would
    6:06:51 all say
    6:06:51 that
    6:06:52 no matter
    6:06:52 whether
    6:06:52 they’re
    6:06:52 rich
    6:06:53 or
    6:06:53 poor
    6:06:54 it’s
    6:06:55 easy
    6:06:55 to lose
    6:06:55 sight of
    6:06:55 that
    6:06:56 when you’re
    6:06:56 chasing
    6:06:57 the
    6:06:57 second
    6:06:58 best
    6:06:58 things
    6:06:58 because
    6:06:58 you know
    6:06:59 what
    6:06:59 they’re also
    6:06:59 very nice
    6:07:01 I really
    6:07:02 like that
    6:07:02 Pagani
    6:07:03 Sonda
    6:07:03 it was a
    6:07:04 very expensive
    6:07:05 car and I
    6:07:05 would have
    6:07:06 no chance
    6:07:07 of acquiring
    6:07:07 it if I
    6:07:08 hadn’t become
    6:07:08 rather
    6:07:10 successful
    6:07:11 in business
    6:07:12 so I don’t
    6:07:12 want to dismiss
    6:07:13 it either
    6:07:14 it’s great
    6:07:14 fun
    6:07:15 to have
    6:07:16 money
    6:07:17 it’s just
    6:07:19 not as
    6:07:20 fun for
    6:07:21 quite as
    6:07:22 long or as
    6:07:22 deep
    6:07:23 as you
    6:07:23 think it
    6:07:24 is
    6:07:24 and these
    6:07:25 other
    6:07:25 things
    6:07:26 having
    6:07:27 an
    6:07:27 occupation
    6:07:28 and a
    6:07:28 pursuit
    6:07:28 that you
    6:07:29 enjoy
    6:07:29 being able
    6:07:30 to carry
    6:07:31 burdens
    6:07:32 with
    6:07:33 a stiff
    6:07:34 upper lip
    6:07:35 and with
    6:07:36 again
    6:07:36 a sense
    6:07:37 of meaning
    6:07:39 is incredible
    6:07:40 to have
    6:07:41 family
    6:07:41 to have
    6:07:42 friends
    6:07:43 to have
    6:07:43 hobbies
    6:07:43 to have
    6:07:44 all these
    6:07:44 things that
    6:07:45 are actually
    6:07:45 available
    6:07:47 to most
    6:07:48 people around
    6:07:49 the world
    6:07:50 that’s
    6:07:50 winning
    6:07:51 and it
    6:07:52 doesn’t mean
    6:07:52 you have
    6:07:52 to
    6:07:53 discount
    6:07:53 your
    6:07:54 ambitions
    6:07:54 it doesn’t
    6:07:55 mean you
    6:07:55 can’t reach
    6:07:56 for more
    6:07:57 but
    6:07:58 it does
    6:07:59 mean it’s
    6:07:59 pretty dumb
    6:08:00 if you
    6:08:01 don’t realize
    6:08:01 that
    6:08:03 it’s not
    6:08:04 going to
    6:08:05 complete you
    6:08:05 in some
    6:08:07 hocus pocus
    6:08:07 woo sense
    6:08:09 to make
    6:08:09 more
    6:08:10 it really
    6:08:11 isn’t
    6:08:12 what gives
    6:08:13 you hope
    6:08:14 about the
    6:08:14 future
    6:08:15 of this
    6:08:16 whole thing
    6:08:16 we have
    6:08:16 going on
    6:08:17 here
    6:08:17 human
    6:08:18 civilization
    6:08:20 I
    6:08:21 find it
    6:08:22 easier to
    6:08:23 be
    6:08:23 optimistic
    6:08:25 than
    6:08:26 pessimistic
    6:08:26 because
    6:08:27 I don’t
    6:08:27 know either
    6:08:28 way
    6:08:28 so if
    6:08:29 I get
    6:08:29 to choose
    6:08:30 why not
    6:08:31 just choose
    6:08:31 to believe
    6:08:32 it’s going
    6:08:32 to pan
    6:08:32 out
    6:08:33 yeah
    6:08:34 like
    6:08:35 we suffer
    6:08:35 more in
    6:08:36 our imagination
    6:08:37 than we do
    6:08:37 in reality
    6:08:38 that’s one of
    6:08:38 the quotes
    6:08:39 out of
    6:08:39 stoicism
    6:08:41 and I
    6:08:42 also think
    6:08:43 we have
    6:08:43 a tendency
    6:08:44 a lot
    6:08:44 of humans
    6:08:45 have a
    6:08:45 tendency
    6:08:46 to be
    6:08:47 pessimistic
    6:08:48 in advance
    6:08:49 for things
    6:08:49 they don’t
    6:08:49 know how
    6:08:50 it’s going
    6:08:50 to pan
    6:08:50 out
    6:08:52 climate
    6:08:52 change
    6:08:52 for example
    6:08:53 is making
    6:08:53 a lot
    6:08:54 of people
    6:08:55 very anxious
    6:08:55 and very
    6:08:56 pessimistic
    6:08:56 about the
    6:08:56 future
    6:08:57 you know
    6:08:58 nothing
    6:08:59 40 years
    6:08:59 ago we
    6:09:00 thought the
    6:09:00 problem was
    6:09:01 that the
    6:09:01 planet
    6:09:01 was going
    6:09:01 to be
    6:09:02 too cool
    6:09:03 I happen
    6:09:03 to believe
    6:09:04 that it’s
    6:09:04 probably
    6:09:05 correct
    6:09:05 that the
    6:09:05 planet
    6:09:06 is
    6:09:06 getting
    6:09:07 too hot
    6:09:07 and that
    6:09:08 CO2
    6:09:08 has something
    6:09:09 to do
    6:09:09 with it
    6:09:10 whether we
    6:09:10 have the
    6:09:11 right measures
    6:09:12 to fix
    6:09:13 it in time
    6:09:13 if that’s
    6:09:13 even
    6:09:14 possible
    6:09:15 or not
    6:09:16 is
    6:09:16 completely
    6:09:17 up in
    6:09:17 the air
    6:09:18 and we
    6:09:18 don’t
    6:09:18 know
    6:09:19 if you
    6:09:19 convince
    6:09:19 yourself
    6:09:20 with
    6:09:20 such
    6:09:21 certainty
    6:09:21 that the
    6:09:21 world
    6:09:22 is going
    6:09:22 to turn
    6:09:22 to shit
    6:09:23 it is
    6:09:24 right up
    6:09:24 here
    6:09:25 in your
    6:09:25 head
    6:09:26 today
    6:09:27 climate
    6:09:27 change
    6:09:28 might wipe
    6:09:29 out this
    6:09:29 entire
    6:09:29 species
    6:09:31 in 200
    6:09:31 years
    6:09:33 it’s not
    6:09:33 next year
    6:09:35 it’s not
    6:09:35 10 years
    6:09:36 from now
    6:09:37 your life
    6:09:37 might become
    6:09:38 more unpleasant
    6:09:38 and there
    6:09:38 might be
    6:09:39 more negative
    6:09:39 effects
    6:09:40 and so on
    6:09:40 yes okay
    6:09:42 but then deal
    6:09:42 with that
    6:09:43 hardship
    6:09:43 when it
    6:09:43 arrives
    6:09:44 don’t
    6:09:45 take that
    6:09:46 in advance
    6:09:46 how are you
    6:09:47 helping earth
    6:09:48 by just
    6:09:49 walking around
    6:09:50 being
    6:09:51 depressed
    6:09:53 I think
    6:09:54 our whole
    6:09:54 conversation
    6:09:55 today is also
    6:09:56 an indication
    6:09:56 it’s just
    6:09:57 two humans
    6:09:57 talking
    6:09:59 there’s billions
    6:09:59 of us
    6:10:00 and there is
    6:10:01 something about us
    6:10:02 that wants to
    6:10:03 solve problems
    6:10:04 and build cool
    6:10:05 stuff
    6:10:06 and so we’re
    6:10:06 gonna build
    6:10:07 our way
    6:10:07 out of
    6:10:08 whatever
    6:10:08 shit
    6:10:08 we’ll get
    6:10:09 ourselves
    6:10:09 into
    6:10:10 this is
    6:10:10 what humans
    6:10:11 do
    6:10:11 we’ll create
    6:10:12 problems
    6:10:13 for ourselves
    6:10:14 and come
    6:10:14 out
    6:10:15 figure out
    6:10:15 how to
    6:10:16 build rocket
    6:10:16 ships
    6:10:19 to get out
    6:10:19 of those
    6:10:19 problems
    6:10:20 and sometimes
    6:10:20 the rocket
    6:10:21 ships create
    6:10:22 other problems
    6:10:22 like nuclear
    6:10:23 warheads
    6:10:24 and then we’ll
    6:10:25 I’m sure
    6:10:27 I hope
    6:10:28 figure out ways
    6:10:29 how to avoid
    6:10:29 those problems
    6:10:30 and then there’ll
    6:10:30 be nanobots
    6:10:31 and then
    6:10:32 the aliens
    6:10:33 will come
    6:10:33 and there’ll
    6:10:33 be a massive
    6:10:34 war between
    6:10:35 the nanobots
    6:10:35 and the aliens
    6:10:36 and that will
    6:10:38 bring all of us
    6:10:38 humans together
    6:10:41 the funny thing
    6:10:42 just to pick up
    6:10:42 one of the points
    6:10:43 you mentioned
    6:10:44 the atom bomb
    6:10:45 for example
    6:10:46 when that was
    6:10:46 first invented
    6:10:47 a lot of people
    6:10:48 thought we have
    6:10:49 essentially ended
    6:10:49 life on earth
    6:10:50 right
    6:10:52 or maybe we
    6:10:53 prevented
    6:10:54 world war 3
    6:10:54 from happening
    6:10:56 in the past
    6:10:56 80 years
    6:10:57 because
    6:10:58 assured
    6:10:59 mutual
    6:11:00 annihilation
    6:11:00 kept
    6:11:02 the superpowers
    6:11:02 from attacking
    6:11:03 each other
    6:11:03 at least
    6:11:04 head on
    6:11:05 and kept
    6:11:05 their
    6:11:06 fighting
    6:11:07 to proxy
    6:11:07 wars
    6:11:08 you know what
    6:11:09 proxy wars
    6:11:09 are not great
    6:11:10 but they’re
    6:11:11 probably better
    6:11:11 than world war
    6:11:12 three with
    6:11:13 nuclear weapons
    6:11:14 so it’s
    6:11:15 quite difficult
    6:11:16 in the moment
    6:11:17 to tell what’s
    6:11:17 actually benefit
    6:11:18 and what’s
    6:11:19 not
    6:11:20 and I think
    6:11:21 we should be
    6:11:21 a bit more
    6:11:21 humble
    6:11:22 I’ve certainly
    6:11:23 become more
    6:11:23 humble over
    6:11:24 time of
    6:11:26 thinking I know
    6:11:27 which way it’s
    6:11:27 going to turn
    6:11:28 I think the
    6:11:29 pandemic was a
    6:11:30 huge moment
    6:11:30 for a lot
    6:11:31 of people
    6:11:31 where there
    6:11:32 was so much
    6:11:33 certainty
    6:11:34 about whether
    6:11:35 this intervention
    6:11:36 worked or that
    6:11:37 intervention didn’t
    6:11:38 work and
    6:11:39 most people
    6:11:40 were wrong
    6:11:42 certainly a lot
    6:11:43 of very smart
    6:11:43 people very
    6:11:45 qualified people
    6:11:46 got that just
    6:11:47 utterly and
    6:11:49 catastrophizingly
    6:11:50 wrong
    6:11:51 so just a little
    6:11:52 intellectual humility
    6:11:53 I think back upon
    6:11:54 that and go like
    6:11:54 you know what
    6:11:55 I’m not a
    6:11:56 PhD in
    6:11:57 virology
    6:12:00 and I don’t
    6:12:01 claim that like
    6:12:02 I somehow saw
    6:12:02 how it always
    6:12:03 going to play
    6:12:03 out but the
    6:12:04 people who were
    6:12:04 really experts
    6:12:05 and that they
    6:12:05 got a bunch
    6:12:06 of it wrong
    6:12:07 nobody knows
    6:12:08 anything I
    6:12:08 keep reminding
    6:12:09 myself of that
    6:12:10 every day no
    6:12:11 one knows
    6:12:11 anything we
    6:12:12 can’t predict
    6:12:14 the economy a
    6:12:15 month out we
    6:12:16 can’t predict
    6:12:16 world affairs
    6:12:17 the world is
    6:12:17 just too
    6:12:18 complicated
    6:12:19 yeah I
    6:12:19 when I
    6:12:20 watched the
    6:12:20 Netflix
    6:12:21 documentary
    6:12:22 Chimp Empire
    6:12:23 and how
    6:12:24 you know
    6:12:24 there’s a
    6:12:25 hierarchy of
    6:12:25 chimps
    6:12:27 all of that
    6:12:28 looks eerily
    6:12:30 similar to us
    6:12:30 humans we’re
    6:12:32 recent descendants
    6:12:33 so these
    6:12:34 experts
    6:12:35 some of the
    6:12:36 chimps are
    6:12:37 got a PhD
    6:12:39 others don’t
    6:12:40 others are
    6:12:40 really muscular
    6:12:41 others are
    6:12:42 the beta male
    6:12:43 kind they’re
    6:12:44 sucking up to
    6:12:44 the alpha
    6:12:45 there’s a lot
    6:12:45 of interesting
    6:12:46 dynamics going
    6:12:47 on that really
    6:12:48 maps cleanly to
    6:12:49 the geopolitics of
    6:12:49 the day
    6:12:50 they don’t have
    6:12:51 nuclear weapons
    6:12:51 but the
    6:12:52 nature of
    6:12:53 their behavior
    6:12:53 is similar
    6:12:53 to ours
    6:12:54 so I
    6:12:56 think I
    6:12:56 think we
    6:12:57 barely know
    6:12:57 what’s going
    6:12:58 on but I
    6:12:59 do think
    6:13:00 there’s like a
    6:13:04 basic will
    6:13:05 to cooperate
    6:13:07 the basic
    6:13:08 compassion that
    6:13:08 underlies or
    6:13:10 just the
    6:13:11 human spirit
    6:13:12 that’s there
    6:13:13 and maybe that
    6:13:14 is just me
    6:13:15 being optimistic
    6:13:16 but if that
    6:13:17 is indeed
    6:13:17 there then
    6:13:17 we’re going
    6:13:18 to be okay
    6:13:19 the capacity
    6:13:19 is certainly
    6:13:20 there whether
    6:13:21 we choose that
    6:13:21 capacity or
    6:13:22 not
    6:13:23 who knows
    6:13:23 and in
    6:13:23 what
    6:13:24 situation
    6:13:24 I think
    6:13:25 accepting that
    6:13:26 we all have
    6:13:26 the capacity
    6:13:27 for both
    6:13:27 ways
    6:13:28 for both
    6:13:29 incredible
    6:13:29 generosity
    6:13:32 and kindness
    6:13:32 and also
    6:13:33 cruelty
    6:13:34 I think
    6:13:35 Jung with
    6:13:36 this whole
    6:13:37 theory of
    6:13:37 the shadow
    6:13:38 was really
    6:13:38 spot on
    6:13:39 that we
    6:13:40 all have
    6:13:41 that capacity
    6:13:42 in us
    6:13:42 and accepting
    6:13:44 that it’s
    6:13:45 our job
    6:13:45 to attempt
    6:13:46 to cultivate
    6:13:47 the better
    6:13:47 parts
    6:13:47 of our
    6:13:48 human
    6:13:48 nature
    6:13:50 is
    6:13:51 weighed
    6:13:52 against
    6:13:52 our
    6:13:53 propensity
    6:13:53 to
    6:13:54 sometimes
    6:13:54 be
    6:13:54 the
    6:13:54 worst
    6:13:55 of
    6:13:55 ourselves
    6:13:57 I’m excited
    6:13:57 to find out
    6:13:58 what’s going to happen
    6:13:59 it’s so awesome
    6:14:00 to be human
    6:14:01 I don’t want to die
    6:14:01 I kind of want to be
    6:14:02 alive for a while
    6:14:03 to see all the
    6:14:04 cool shit we do
    6:14:06 and one of the
    6:14:06 cool things I want
    6:14:07 to see is
    6:14:08 all the software
    6:14:09 you create
    6:14:10 and all the
    6:14:10 things you tweet
    6:14:12 all the trouble
    6:14:12 you get
    6:14:13 yourself into
    6:14:14 on Twitter
    6:14:15 David
    6:14:16 I’m a huge fan
    6:14:17 like I said
    6:14:18 thank you for
    6:14:18 everything you’ve
    6:14:19 done for the
    6:14:19 world
    6:14:21 for the millions
    6:14:21 of developers
    6:14:22 you’ve inspired
    6:14:24 and one of
    6:14:24 whom is me
    6:14:25 and thank you
    6:14:26 for this awesome
    6:14:27 conversation brother
    6:14:27 thanks so much
    6:14:28 for having me
    6:14:30 thanks for listening
    6:14:30 to this conversation
    6:14:31 with DHH
    6:14:32 to support
    6:14:33 this podcast
    6:14:33 please check out
    6:14:34 our sponsors
    6:14:35 in the description
    6:14:36 and consider
    6:14:37 subscribing to
    6:14:37 this channel
    6:14:38 and now
    6:14:39 let me leave you
    6:14:40 with some words
    6:14:41 from Rework
    6:14:42 by DHH
    6:14:43 and Jason Fried
    6:14:45 what you do
    6:14:46 is what matters
    6:14:47 not what you
    6:14:49 think or say
    6:14:50 or plan
    6:14:52 thank you for
    6:14:52 listening
    6:14:53 and hope to see
    6:14:54 you next time
    6:15:02 and hope to see
    6:15:02 you next time
    6:15:03 and hope to see
    6:15:03 you next time
    6:15:04 and hope to see
    6:15:04 you next time
    6:15:06 and hope to see
    6:15:06 you next time
    6:15:07 and hope to see
    6:15:07 you next time
    6:15:08 and hope to see
    6:15:09 you next time
    6:15:09 and hope to see
    6:15:10 you next time

    David Heinemeier Hansson (aka DHH) is a legendary programmer, creator of Ruby on Rails, co-owner & CTO of 37signals that created Basecamp, HEY, & ONCE, and is a NYT-best-selling author (with Jason Fried) of 4 books: REWORK, REMOTE, Getting Real, and It Doesn’t Have To Be Crazy At Work. He is also a race car driver, including a class-winning performance at the 24 hour Le Mans race.
    Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep474-sc
    See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.

    Transcript:
    https://lexfridman.com/dhh-david-heinemeier-hansson-transcript

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    OUTLINE:
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    (26:13) – JavaScript
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    (3:07:58) – Case against retirement
    (3:15:15) – Hard work
    (3:20:53) – Why we left the cloud
    (3:24:04) – AWS
    (3:33:22) – Owning your own servers
    (3:39:35) – Elon Musk
    (3:49:17) – Apple
    (4:01:03) – Tim Sweeney
    (4:12:37) – Fatherhood
    (4:38:19) – Racing
    (5:05:23) – Cars
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    (5:25:51) – Programming language for beginners
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    (5:59:18) – Money and happiness
    (6:08:11) – Hope

  • #473 – Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

    AI transcript
    0:00:05 The following is a debate between Scott Horton and Mark Dubowitz on the topic of Iran and Israel.
    0:00:12 Scott Horton is author and editorial director of antiwar.com, host of The Scott Horton Show,
    0:00:19 and for the past three decades, a staunch critic of U.S. foreign policy and military interventionism.
    0:00:24 Mark Dubowitz is a chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies,
    0:00:34 host of the Iran Breakdown podcast, and he has been a leading expert on Iran and its nuclear program for over 20 years.
    0:00:39 And now, a quick few second mention of his sponsor.
    0:00:44 Check them out in the description or at lexfreedman.com slash sponsors.
    0:00:46 It’s the best way to support this podcast.
    0:00:53 We got Hampton for a private, highly vetted community for founders and CEOs,
    0:00:58 Notion for team collaboration and note-taking, Shopify for selling stuff online,
    0:01:02 Oracle for cloud computing, and Element for your health.
    0:01:03 Choose who is it, my friends.
    0:01:06 And now, on to the full ad reads.
    0:01:07 They’re all here in one place.
    0:01:12 I try to make them interesting by talking about some random things I’m reading or thinking about,
    0:01:15 but if you do skip, please still check out our sponsors.
    0:01:16 I enjoy their stuff.
    0:01:17 Maybe you will, too.
    0:01:22 To get in touch with me, for whatever reason, go to lexfreedman.com slash contact.
    0:01:23 All right, let’s go.
    0:01:31 This episode is brought to you by a new sponsor, an incredible community called Hampton.
    0:01:36 It’s a private, highly vetted community for high-growth founders and CEOs.
    0:01:39 It is lonely to be a leader.
    0:01:49 Every CEO I know, every founder I know, especially in the early days, are truly on an emotional rollercoaster.
    0:01:53 So, Hampton provides a great community for the founders to meet.
    0:02:01 Every month, eight founders, face-to-face, having real conversations about daily struggles entailed in being a founder,
    0:02:04 and entailed in being human, quite frankly.
    0:02:11 Groups are forming in New York City, Austin, San Francisco, L.A., Miami, Denver, and other top cities nationwide.
    0:02:18 I’m going to be more and more part of this community because there’s very few things that will make me happier
    0:02:24 than building a company that does something useful in this big world of ours.
    0:02:34 If you’re a founder who’s tired of carrying it all alone, visit joinhampton.com slash lex to see if it’s a fit for you.
    0:02:37 That’s joinhampton.com slash lex.
    0:02:45 This episode is brought to you by Notion, a note-taking and team collaboration tool that is superpowered by AI.
    0:02:50 It integrates AI into the note-taking process better than basically anything I’ve tried,
    0:02:54 and that’s certainly true in the case of teams.
    0:02:59 So, it’s doing things like collecting all the information from the meeting you just had.
    0:03:06 It captures everything, can make it searchable, summarized, there’s transcriptions, all of that,
    0:03:09 and it’s all automatically saved in Notion.
    0:03:19 And they do search across multiple apps, so across the whole Microsoft ecosystem, Google, like Gmail Drive, everything.
    0:03:25 And by the way, they integrate many of the latest language models, Claude, GPT.
    0:03:31 If you want to try a piece of software that integrates AI extremely well, like I’ve said many times,
    0:03:34 it’s not just about the intelligence of the model.
    0:03:40 It’s about the integration of that model into a system, into an interface,
    0:03:46 that actually allows you to maximally leverage that intelligence for a particular set of tasks.
    0:03:50 Try Notion AI for free when you go to Notion.com slash Lex.
    0:03:56 That’s all lowercase, Notion.com slash Lex, to try the power of Notion AI today.
    0:04:04 This episode is brought to you by Shopify, a platform designed for anyone to sell anywhere with a great-looking online store.
    0:04:07 I have a store on there, LexFreeman.com slash store.
    0:04:12 I’m probably going to be doing an episode on the Silk Road, history of the Silk Road.
    0:04:18 The actual Silk Road, not the modern-day digital kind.
    0:04:25 Any history that gives us an inkling of the transformation between the very early humans
    0:04:30 to the more modern, advanced technology humans.
    0:04:31 Any of that.
    0:04:39 Silk Road is one of those technologies that gives you a glimpse of what it was like in the tribal life before,
    0:04:45 and what was it like in a fully integrated network of cities after,
    0:04:48 into the transformational periods of human history.
    0:04:49 All of that.
    0:04:50 I love studying it.
    0:04:57 But humans interacting, whether it’s through conflict and war, or peacetime trade,
    0:04:59 that has always been fascinating to me.
    0:05:04 Sign up for a $1 per month trial period at Shopify.com slash Lex.
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    0:05:11 Go to Shopify.com slash Lex to take your business to the next level today.
    0:05:14 This episode is also brought to you by Oracle,
    0:05:20 a company providing a fully integrated stack of cloud applications and cloud platform services.
    0:05:30 More and more of the digital intelligence that has taken over our lives and the functions of society
    0:05:33 is going to be taking up more and more compute.
    0:05:39 And of course, a large fraction of that, especially for the smaller players, will be in the cloud.
    0:05:52 So it’s great to have companies like Oracle who are delivering a huge amount of compute and storage in the cloud and doing it affordably.
    0:05:57 Cut your cloud bill in half when you switch to OCI.
    0:06:00 That’s Oracle Cloud Infrastructure.
    0:06:05 Offers for new U.S. customers with a minimum financial commitment.
    0:06:10 See if you qualify at Oracle.com slash Lex.
    0:06:12 That’s Oracle.com slash Lex.
    0:06:15 This episode is also brought to you by Element,
    0:06:20 my daily zero-sugar and delicious electrolyte mix.
    0:06:22 I’m going to be traveling a bit,
    0:06:24 and I’m going to bring a bunch of Element with me,
    0:06:26 because it’s one of the sources of happiness for me.
    0:06:30 Once again, I brought Element packets to the Amazon,
    0:06:37 where the taste of water provided one of the greatest experiences of my life.
    0:06:39 It’s the yin and yang of life.
    0:06:45 Not having something, craving it, waiting for it, and then finally having it.
    0:06:47 That’s a great feeling.
    0:06:51 I almost never, no matter the distance, drink water when I run.
    0:06:55 Especially for the longer runs, if it’s like 12, 15 miles.
    0:06:59 When I get back, especially in the Texas heat,
    0:07:01 you know, I’m a bit dehydrated,
    0:07:04 so get a cold water bottle with Element in it.
    0:07:05 Ah, it’s a good feeling.
    0:07:11 Get a free eight-count sample pack for free with any purchase.
    0:07:15 Try it at drinkelement.com slash Lex.
    0:07:18 This is the Lex Freedman Podcast.
    0:07:20 To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description,
    0:07:23 or at lexfreedman.com slash sponsors.
    0:07:26 And consider subscribing, commenting,
    0:07:29 and sharing the podcast with folks who might find it interesting.
    0:07:32 I promise to work extremely hard
    0:07:36 to always bring you nuanced, long-form conversations
    0:07:38 with a wide variety of interesting people
    0:07:40 from all walks of life.
    0:07:42 And now, dear friends,
    0:07:46 here’s Scott Horton and Mark Dubowitz.
    0:08:05 Gentlemen, all right, it’s great to have you here.
    0:08:09 Let’s try to have a nuanced discussion slash debate
    0:08:12 and maybe even steal man-opposing perspectives
    0:08:13 as much as possible.
    0:08:15 All right, as it stands now,
    0:08:17 there’s a barely stable ceasefire
    0:08:18 between Iran and Israel.
    0:08:22 Let’s maybe rewind a little bit.
    0:08:25 Can we first lay out the context
    0:08:27 for this Iran-Israel war
    0:08:29 and try to describe the key events
    0:08:30 that happened over the past two weeks?
    0:08:34 Maybe even a bit of the deep roots of the conflict.
    0:08:35 Sure.
    0:08:37 First of all, thanks so much for having me on.
    0:08:38 Great to be on with Scott.
    0:08:40 I know he and I don’t agree on a lot,
    0:08:41 but I certainly admire the passion
    0:08:45 and the dedication to stopping wars.
    0:08:47 So that’s something we want to talk about.
    0:08:49 So let’s talk about how we got to this war.
    0:08:51 So President Trump comes into office
    0:08:55 and immediately lays out that his Iran strategy
    0:08:58 is maximum pressure on the regime
    0:09:00 and he will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.
    0:09:03 And he makes that clear consistently.
    0:09:06 I think he made it very clear during his first term,
    0:09:07 made a clear threat throughout his career
    0:09:12 and thus begins this process with the Iranians,
    0:09:14 which has kind of multiple tracks,
    0:09:17 but the one that Trump sees most interested in at the time
    0:09:18 is the diplomatic track.
    0:09:20 And he makes it very clear from the beginning
    0:09:22 and a sort of Oval Office remark.
    0:09:24 He says the Iranians can either blow up
    0:09:27 their nuclear program under U.S. supervision
    0:09:29 or someone’s going to blow it up for them.
    0:09:32 And even though, you know, at the time,
    0:09:35 we think Netanyahu is really trying to push the president
    0:09:36 into a military campaign.
    0:09:39 Well, I’m sure we’ll talk about that throughout the podcast.
    0:09:43 The president authorizes his lead negotiator
    0:09:45 and close friend, Steve Witkoff,
    0:09:47 to begin outreach to the Iranians
    0:09:49 and thus begun the Oman round.
    0:09:51 And it’s Oman round because it’s taking place in Oman
    0:09:54 with mediation efforts by the Omanis.
    0:09:58 There are five rounds of negotiations with the Iranians.
    0:10:00 And through the course of those negotiations,
    0:10:05 the U.S. finally puts on the table an offer for Iran.
    0:10:07 We’ll talk about the details of that.
    0:10:08 The Iranians reject that offer.
    0:10:11 And we’re now into the sixth round,
    0:10:14 which is supposed to take place on a Sunday.
    0:10:17 On the Thursday before the Sunday,
    0:10:21 the Israelis strike and they go after
    0:10:23 in a rather devastating campaign
    0:10:26 over a matter of now 12 days,
    0:10:29 they go over and go after Iran’s nuclear program,
    0:10:31 the key nuclear sites,
    0:10:34 going after weapons scientists
    0:10:35 who are responsible for building
    0:10:38 Iran’s nuclear weapons program,
    0:10:41 and also go after top IRGC,
    0:10:42 Islamic Revolutionary Guard commanders,
    0:10:44 as well as top military commanders.
    0:10:48 And yet there’s still this one site
    0:10:50 that is the most fortified site.
    0:10:51 It’s called Fordow.
    0:10:52 It’s an enrichment facility.
    0:10:54 It’s buried under a mountain,
    0:10:56 goes about 80 meters deep.
    0:10:57 It’s encased in concrete.
    0:10:59 It has advanced centrifuges
    0:11:00 and highly enriched uranium.
    0:11:03 The Israelis can do damage to it,
    0:11:04 but it’s clear it’s going to take
    0:11:07 the United States and our military power
    0:11:09 in order to severely
    0:11:11 degrade this facility.
    0:11:13 And Trump orders
    0:11:14 the United States Air Force
    0:11:16 to fly B-2 bombers
    0:11:19 and drop 12 massive Ordens penetrators,
    0:11:21 which are these 30,000-pound bombs
    0:11:24 on Fordow in order to,
    0:11:25 as he said,
    0:11:27 obliterate it more realistically
    0:11:29 to severely degrade it.
    0:11:30 So that happens.
    0:11:33 And then he offers the Iranians,
    0:11:34 as he’s been offering all the way through,
    0:11:36 you have an option.
    0:11:37 You can go back to Oman.
    0:11:38 I told you Oman,
    0:11:40 and you decided to force me
    0:11:41 to go to Fordow.
    0:11:42 But now we can go back
    0:11:43 for negotiations.
    0:11:46 And he forces a ceasefire
    0:11:47 on the Iranians,
    0:11:48 gets the Israelis to agree.
    0:11:50 And that’s where we are today.
    0:11:51 That’s right, as you say,
    0:11:52 a tentative ceasefire
    0:11:54 that just came into effect.
    0:11:55 And we’ll see now
    0:11:57 if the Iranians decide
    0:11:58 to take President Trump
    0:12:00 on his repeated offers,
    0:12:01 join him in Oman
    0:12:03 for another round of negotiations.
    0:12:04 Scott, is there some stuff
    0:12:05 you want to add to that?
    0:12:06 Sure.
    0:12:09 Well, he started with January, right?
    0:12:10 Trump’s second term here
    0:12:12 in the maximum pressure campaign.
    0:12:13 Essentially,
    0:12:15 as should be clear to everyone now,
    0:12:17 all these negotiations
    0:12:18 were just a pretext for war.
    0:12:20 Trump and his entire cabinet
    0:12:22 must have known
    0:12:23 that the Ayatollah
    0:12:24 is not going to give up
    0:12:26 all enrichment.
    0:12:28 That is their latent
    0:12:29 nuclear deterrent.
    0:12:31 Their posture has been
    0:12:32 heavily implied,
    0:12:34 don’t attack us
    0:12:35 and we won’t make a nuke.
    0:12:37 While America’s position was,
    0:12:38 if you make a nuke,
    0:12:39 if you start to,
    0:12:40 we’ll attack you.
    0:12:42 So it’s the perfect standoff.
    0:12:43 But what happened was,
    0:12:44 and you might remember
    0:12:45 a few weeks ago,
    0:12:46 there was some talk about,
    0:12:47 well, maybe we could find a way
    0:12:49 to compromise on some enrichment.
    0:12:50 Maybe they could do a consortium
    0:12:51 with the Saudis.
    0:12:53 Maybe there’s some way that we,
    0:12:53 and then nope,
    0:12:55 the pressure came down.
    0:12:56 No enrichment,
    0:12:57 zero enrichment.
    0:12:58 But that’s a red line.
    0:13:00 Everyone knows that there’s,
    0:13:01 and even now,
    0:13:04 it’s probably less likely than ever
    0:13:06 that they’re going to give up enrichment.
    0:13:07 Sure, they bombed Fordo,
    0:13:08 but they didn’t destroy
    0:13:09 every last centrifuge in that place.
    0:13:12 And the Iranians are already announcing
    0:13:14 that they’re already begun construction
    0:13:15 on another facility
    0:13:17 under a taller mountain,
    0:13:18 buried even deeper.
    0:13:19 And, you know,
    0:13:20 they figured out
    0:13:22 how to enrich uranium hexafluoride gas,
    0:13:23 you know,
    0:13:24 what, 20 years ago now.
    0:13:27 And they will always be able to.
    0:13:29 And this is the slippery slope
    0:13:31 that we’re on with these wars.
    0:13:32 Is, in fact,
    0:13:35 I saw a friend here on TV the other day,
    0:13:37 as he almost pretty much
    0:13:38 just implied there,
    0:13:38 saying, well,
    0:13:40 now Trump has to go in.
    0:13:41 You know,
    0:13:42 we were told,
    0:13:43 it’s just Israel doing it.
    0:13:43 Don’t worry.
    0:13:44 But then, no,
    0:13:45 Trump has to
    0:13:47 hit Fordo,
    0:13:49 or else now
    0:13:50 they’ll break out
    0:13:51 toward a nuclear weapon.
    0:13:52 So, in for a penny,
    0:13:53 in for a pound,
    0:13:54 in for a ton.
    0:13:55 And now,
    0:13:56 once we bomb
    0:13:57 Fordo again,
    0:13:58 and Natanz again,
    0:14:00 and the new facility again,
    0:14:01 then it’ll be decided that,
    0:14:01 no,
    0:14:04 as Benjamin Netanyahu said the other day,
    0:14:04 you know,
    0:14:05 it would really solve this problem
    0:14:07 if we just kill the Ayatollah.
    0:14:09 Then everything will be fine.
    0:14:11 Then we’ll have a regime change.
    0:14:11 And then what?
    0:14:13 Then we’ll have a civil war
    0:14:14 with Bin Ladenites
    0:14:15 again in the catbird seat,
    0:14:17 just like George Bush
    0:14:18 put them in Iraq
    0:14:19 and Barack Obama
    0:14:20 put them in Libya
    0:14:21 and in Syria.
    0:14:23 And we’ll have Aziris
    0:14:24 and Baluki suicide bombers
    0:14:26 and Shiite,
    0:14:27 you know,
    0:14:28 revolutionaries
    0:14:28 and whoever
    0:14:30 all vying for power
    0:14:31 in the new
    0:14:32 absolute chaos stand.
    0:14:34 If you listen to the administration
    0:14:35 and Mr. Duis,
    0:14:37 they’re essentially just implying that,
    0:14:37 like, oh yeah,
    0:14:38 mission accomplished.
    0:14:39 We did it.
    0:14:40 Their nuclear program’s destroyed.
    0:14:41 Now we don’t have to worry
    0:14:41 about that anymore.
    0:14:42 But that’s not true.
    0:14:43 Now there’s
    0:14:45 every reason to believe,
    0:14:46 and we don’t know for sure,
    0:14:48 there’s every reason
    0:14:48 to believe
    0:14:49 that at least
    0:14:51 it’s much more likely now
    0:14:52 that the Ayatollah
    0:14:53 will change his mind
    0:14:55 about God changing his mind
    0:14:56 and will say that actually
    0:14:57 maybe we do need
    0:14:58 a nuclear deterrent.
    0:15:00 That’s really what it’s been for
    0:15:00 this whole time
    0:15:01 is a bluff.
    0:15:03 We have bullets in one pocket,
    0:15:04 revolver in another.
    0:15:05 Let’s not you and me fight
    0:15:06 and escalate this thing.
    0:15:07 It’s the same position,
    0:15:07 by the way,
    0:15:09 as Japan and Germany
    0:15:10 and Brazil.
    0:15:11 Two of the three of those
    0:15:12 are under America’s
    0:15:12 nuclear umbrella,
    0:15:13 I admit,
    0:15:13 but still,
    0:15:15 where they’ve proven
    0:15:16 they’ve mastered the fuel cycle
    0:15:17 and they can make
    0:15:17 nuclear weapons,
    0:15:18 but hey,
    0:15:19 since nobody’s
    0:15:20 directly threatening them now,
    0:15:21 why escalate things
    0:15:22 and go ahead
    0:15:22 and make atom bombs?
    0:15:24 That has been their position
    0:15:25 the whole time
    0:15:25 because after all,
    0:15:27 they could not break out
    0:15:28 and make a nuke
    0:15:29 without everyone in the world
    0:15:30 knowing about it.
    0:15:31 And that’s why,
    0:15:31 Lex,
    0:15:32 and I’m sure you can vouch
    0:15:32 for me on this,
    0:15:33 if you’ve been watching TV
    0:15:34 over the past few weeks,
    0:15:36 you’ll hear Marco Rubio
    0:15:37 and all the government officials
    0:15:38 and all the Warhawks say,
    0:15:38 oh yeah,
    0:15:39 60%,
    0:15:39 60%,
    0:15:41 what do you think
    0:15:41 they need
    0:15:42 with that 60%?
    0:15:43 Implying that,
    0:15:44 oh yeah,
    0:15:44 see,
    0:15:45 they’re racing toward a bomb.
    0:15:46 But you see how
    0:15:47 they always just imply that?
    0:15:48 They won’t come right out
    0:15:49 and say that
    0:15:50 because it’s a ridiculous lie.
    0:15:52 they could have enriched
    0:15:53 up to 90 plus percent
    0:15:55 uranium-235 this whole time.
    0:15:56 The reason they were enriching
    0:15:57 up to 60%
    0:15:58 was in reaction
    0:15:59 to Israeli sabotage,
    0:16:00 first of all,
    0:16:01 assassinating their nuclear scientists
    0:16:02 and then their sabotage
    0:16:03 at Natanz.
    0:16:04 They started enriching
    0:16:05 up to 60%
    0:16:05 just like they did
    0:16:06 in the Obama years
    0:16:08 to have a bargaining chip
    0:16:09 to negotiate away.
    0:16:10 Under the JCPOA,
    0:16:11 they shipped out
    0:16:12 every bit of their
    0:16:13 enriched uranium to France
    0:16:15 to be turned into fuel rods
    0:16:16 and then shipped back
    0:16:17 into the country
    0:16:18 to be used in their reactors.
    0:16:19 And so,
    0:16:20 they’re just trying
    0:16:21 to get us back
    0:16:22 in that deal.
    0:16:23 It is an illusion.
    0:16:23 It is,
    0:16:25 and I don’t know exactly
    0:16:26 what’s in this man’s mind,
    0:16:27 but it’s just not true
    0:16:28 that they’re making
    0:16:29 nuclear weapons
    0:16:30 and it has been a lie
    0:16:32 of Benjamin Netanyahu
    0:16:34 and his Likud party regime
    0:16:34 and for that matter
    0:16:35 the Kadima regime
    0:16:37 of Ehud Olmert before him
    0:16:38 that this is a threat
    0:16:40 that has to be preempted
    0:16:41 when in fact
    0:16:42 it never was anything more
    0:16:43 than a latent
    0:16:44 nuclear deterrent.
    0:16:46 Maybe a good question
    0:16:47 to ask here
    0:16:50 is what is the goal
    0:16:51 for the United States
    0:16:51 in Iran
    0:16:52 in relation
    0:16:54 to the nuclear,
    0:16:56 Iran’s nuclear program?
    0:16:59 What is the red line here?
    0:17:00 Does Iran have this
    0:17:02 need for a latent
    0:17:03 nuclear deterrent?
    0:17:05 And what is the thing
    0:17:06 that’s acceptable
    0:17:07 to the United States
    0:17:08 and to the rest of the world?
    0:17:09 What should be acceptable?
    0:17:10 Yeah, Alex.
    0:17:10 So,
    0:17:11 there was a lot
    0:17:11 to unpack there.
    0:17:12 So,
    0:17:12 let’s sort of just
    0:17:13 back up a little bit
    0:17:14 and talk about,
    0:17:14 first of all,
    0:17:16 the regime itself,
    0:17:17 Islamic Republic of Iran
    0:17:18 came into power
    0:17:18 in 1979.
    0:17:20 It has been declared
    0:17:21 a leading state sponsor
    0:17:22 of terrorism
    0:17:23 by multiple administrations
    0:17:24 dating back
    0:17:25 to the Clinton administration
    0:17:27 by Obama,
    0:17:28 by Biden,
    0:17:28 by Trump.
    0:17:30 And it is a regime
    0:17:31 that has killed
    0:17:32 and maimed
    0:17:33 thousands of Americans,
    0:17:34 not to mention,
    0:17:35 obviously,
    0:17:36 hundreds of thousands
    0:17:37 of Middle Easterners.
    0:17:39 It is a regime
    0:17:40 that has lied
    0:17:42 about its nuclear program
    0:17:43 and never actually
    0:17:44 disclosed
    0:17:45 its nuclear sites.
    0:17:45 All these sites
    0:17:46 were discovered
    0:17:49 by Iranian opposition groups,
    0:17:50 by Western intelligence agencies,
    0:17:52 and the International
    0:17:53 Atomic Energy Agency,
    0:17:55 which is the UN agency
    0:17:56 responsible for
    0:17:58 preventing proliferation,
    0:17:59 has come out
    0:18:00 again and again
    0:18:01 over many,
    0:18:01 many years
    0:18:02 in reports,
    0:18:04 very detailed reports,
    0:18:06 describing Iran’s
    0:18:07 nuclear weapons program.
    0:18:09 There have been
    0:18:10 multiple attempts
    0:18:12 at diplomacy with Iran.
    0:18:13 I’m sure we’re going
    0:18:13 to talk about it.
    0:18:15 Scott mentioned the JCPOA,
    0:18:16 so we should certainly
    0:18:17 talk about the JCPOA,
    0:18:18 which was the 2015 deal
    0:18:19 that Barack Obama
    0:18:20 reached with Iran.
    0:18:22 But multiple attempts
    0:18:23 to actually get the Iranians
    0:18:25 to negotiate away
    0:18:26 their nuclear weapons program.
    0:18:27 I mean, it’s worth mentioning
    0:18:29 that if Iran wanted
    0:18:30 to have civilian nuclear energy,
    0:18:32 there are 23 countries
    0:18:33 in the world that have it,
    0:18:35 but they don’t have enrichment
    0:18:36 and they don’t have reprocessing.
    0:18:38 We sign these deals
    0:18:39 called the gold standard
    0:18:40 with the South Koreans,
    0:18:41 with the Emiratis,
    0:18:41 with others.
    0:18:42 And we say,
    0:18:43 if you want civilian energy,
    0:18:46 you can have power plants,
    0:18:48 you can buy your fuel rods
    0:18:49 from abroad,
    0:18:50 but there’s no reason
    0:18:51 to have enrichment
    0:18:53 or plutonium reprocessing
    0:18:54 because those are
    0:18:54 the key capabilities
    0:18:56 you need to develop
    0:18:56 nuclear weapons.
    0:18:59 Now, the five countries
    0:19:00 that have those capabilities
    0:19:02 and don’t have nuclear weapons
    0:19:03 are Argentina,
    0:19:04 Brazil,
    0:19:05 Holland,
    0:19:05 Germany,
    0:19:07 and Japan.
    0:19:08 And I think it’s the view
    0:19:10 of many administrations
    0:19:11 over many years,
    0:19:13 including many European leaders,
    0:19:15 that the Islamic Republic of Iran
    0:19:16 is very different
    0:19:17 from those aforementioned countries
    0:19:19 because it has been
    0:19:20 dedicated to terrorism,
    0:19:22 it’s been killing Americans
    0:19:23 and other Westerners
    0:19:24 and other Middle Easterners,
    0:19:25 and it is a dangerous regime.
    0:19:26 You don’t want to have
    0:19:28 that dangerous regime
    0:19:30 retaining the key capabilities
    0:19:31 and needs to develop
    0:19:32 nuclear weapons.
    0:19:33 But I want to kind of
    0:19:35 get back more to the present.
    0:19:36 I mentioned this
    0:19:37 with the surrounding negotiations
    0:19:37 at Oman.
    0:19:39 Scott’s saying that
    0:19:40 President Trump had said,
    0:19:42 here’s the offer,
    0:19:43 take it or leave it,
    0:19:44 zero enrichment,
    0:19:45 full dismantlement.
    0:19:45 Well, in fact,
    0:19:46 that wasn’t the offer
    0:19:47 that was presented
    0:19:48 to the Iranians at Oman.
    0:19:50 The offer was a one-page offer,
    0:19:51 and it said,
    0:19:53 you can temporarily enrich
    0:19:54 above ground,
    0:19:55 you’ve got to render
    0:19:58 your below-ground facilities,
    0:19:59 quote, non-operational.
    0:20:01 And then at some time
    0:20:01 in the future,
    0:20:02 three, four years,
    0:20:03 as Scott said,
    0:20:04 there’ll be a consortium
    0:20:05 that’ll be built,
    0:20:07 not on Iranian territory.
    0:20:08 It’ll be a partnership
    0:20:09 with the Saudis
    0:20:10 and the Emiratis.
    0:20:11 It’ll be under IAEA supervision.
    0:20:13 And that enrichment facility
    0:20:14 will create fuel rods
    0:20:16 for your nuclear reactors.
    0:20:18 So that was the offer
    0:20:19 presented to Iran,
    0:20:20 and that offer would come
    0:20:21 with significant sanctions relief,
    0:20:23 billions of dollars
    0:20:25 that would go to the regime,
    0:20:26 obviously the economy there
    0:20:27 has been suffering.
    0:20:29 The regime has not had
    0:20:30 the resources
    0:20:31 that it’s had in the past
    0:20:33 to fund its,
    0:20:34 what I call,
    0:20:35 its axis of misery,
    0:20:36 its proxy terror armies
    0:20:37 around the world.
    0:20:38 And it was a good offer,
    0:20:40 and I was shocked
    0:20:42 that Khamenei rejected it.
    0:20:44 He did reject it,
    0:20:45 and I think he rejected it
    0:20:47 because I think he believed
    0:20:48 that he could continue
    0:20:49 to do to President Trump
    0:20:50 what he’d done
    0:20:51 to President Obama,
    0:20:52 which is just continue
    0:20:53 to squeeze and squeeze
    0:20:54 and squeeze the Americans
    0:20:55 at the table
    0:20:56 in order to ensure
    0:20:57 that he could keep
    0:20:58 all these nuclear facilities,
    0:21:00 all these nuclear capabilities,
    0:21:01 so that at a time
    0:21:02 of his choosing,
    0:21:04 when President Trump is gone,
    0:21:06 he can develop nuclear weapons.
    0:21:07 Now, it is a bit interesting
    0:21:09 to say that Iran
    0:21:10 has no intention
    0:21:11 to develop nuclear weapons.
    0:21:13 And let’s examine
    0:21:14 the nuclear program
    0:21:15 and ask,
    0:21:16 does this sound like a regime
    0:21:17 that’s not interested
    0:21:18 in building nuclear weapons?
    0:21:20 So they built
    0:21:22 deeply buried underground
    0:21:23 enrichment facilities
    0:21:24 that they hid
    0:21:26 from the international community,
    0:21:27 and they didn’t disclose.
    0:21:29 They had an active
    0:21:30 nuclear warhead program
    0:21:31 called the MAD,
    0:21:34 which ended in 2003,
    0:21:34 formally,
    0:21:36 when the United States
    0:21:36 invaded Iraq.
    0:21:38 And we know that
    0:21:39 because not only
    0:21:40 has that been detailed
    0:21:42 by the IAEA,
    0:21:43 but actually Mossad,
    0:21:45 in a daring operation
    0:21:45 in Tehran,
    0:21:47 took out a nuclear archive
    0:21:48 and brought it back
    0:21:50 to the West.
    0:21:51 And then the IAEA,
    0:21:52 the United States,
    0:21:53 and the intelligence communities
    0:21:55 went after this detailed
    0:21:56 archive,
    0:21:57 went into it,
    0:21:57 and discovered
    0:21:59 that this Supreme Leader,
    0:22:01 Ayatollah Khamenei,
    0:22:02 had an active program
    0:22:03 to build
    0:22:05 five atomic warheads
    0:22:07 and was a very detailed program
    0:22:08 with blueprints
    0:22:09 and designs,
    0:22:10 all of which
    0:22:11 was designed
    0:22:12 under a MAD
    0:22:12 to build
    0:22:14 a nuclear weapons program.
    0:22:15 So again,
    0:22:16 it’s interesting to say
    0:22:17 that he doesn’t have
    0:22:18 the intention
    0:22:18 to build nuclear weapons
    0:22:19 when he actually
    0:22:20 had an active
    0:22:21 nuclear weapons program.
    0:22:22 And we can talk about
    0:22:23 what happened
    0:22:23 to that program
    0:22:24 after 2003,
    0:22:25 and there’s a lot
    0:22:26 of interesting details.
    0:22:27 So when you combine
    0:22:28 the fact that
    0:22:30 he has an active
    0:22:31 nuclear weapons program,
    0:22:32 he has sites
    0:22:33 that are buried
    0:22:34 deep underground,
    0:22:36 he has weapons scientists
    0:22:38 who come out
    0:22:39 of the MAD program
    0:22:40 and continue to work
    0:22:42 on the initial
    0:22:43 metallurgy work
    0:22:44 and computer modeling
    0:22:46 designed to actually
    0:22:47 begin that process
    0:22:48 of building a warhead.
    0:22:49 And all of this
    0:22:50 has been hidden
    0:22:51 from the international
    0:22:51 community.
    0:22:53 He has spent estimates
    0:22:55 of a half a trillion dollars
    0:22:56 on his nuclear program
    0:22:58 in direct costs
    0:23:00 and in sanctions costs.
    0:23:01 And one has to ask,
    0:23:02 and I think it’s
    0:23:03 an interesting question,
    0:23:05 to compare the UAE
    0:23:06 and Iran.
    0:23:07 The UAE signed
    0:23:08 the gold standard.
    0:23:09 They said,
    0:23:09 we’ll have no enrichment
    0:23:10 capability
    0:23:11 or reprocessing.
    0:23:12 they spent about
    0:23:14 $20 billion on that
    0:23:15 and it supplies
    0:23:17 25% of their
    0:23:19 electrical generation.
    0:23:20 Khamenei spent
    0:23:22 a half a trillion dollars
    0:23:24 and that program
    0:23:25 supplies
    0:23:27 maybe 3%
    0:23:28 of their
    0:23:29 electrical needs.
    0:23:29 In fact,
    0:23:30 they have a reactor
    0:23:31 that they bought
    0:23:32 from the Russians
    0:23:33 called Boucher
    0:23:34 and that reactor,
    0:23:35 it’s exactly
    0:23:36 what you’d want
    0:23:37 in a proliferation
    0:23:38 proof reactor.
    0:23:39 They buy fuel rods
    0:23:39 from the Russians,
    0:23:40 they use it,
    0:23:41 and they send
    0:23:41 the spent fuel
    0:23:42 back to Russia
    0:23:43 so it cannot be
    0:23:44 reprocessed into plutonium.
    0:23:45 So I just think
    0:23:46 it’s important
    0:23:47 for your listeners
    0:23:47 to understand
    0:23:48 just some of the
    0:23:50 technical nuclear
    0:23:51 history here
    0:23:52 in order to unpack
    0:23:53 this question of
    0:23:54 did Khamenei
    0:23:56 want nuclear weapons?
    0:23:58 What was his goal here?
    0:23:59 And then we can talk
    0:24:00 about was this
    0:24:01 the right operation
    0:24:03 in order for the
    0:24:03 United States
    0:24:05 to order the
    0:24:06 B-2 bombers
    0:24:07 to strike
    0:24:08 these facilities
    0:24:09 in what, again,
    0:24:09 was a limited
    0:24:10 operation as
    0:24:11 President Trump
    0:24:11 has said
    0:24:12 in order to
    0:24:13 drive the Iranians
    0:24:14 back to the
    0:24:15 negotiating table
    0:24:16 and finally do
    0:24:16 the deal that
    0:24:17 President Trump
    0:24:18 has asked them
    0:24:18 to do since
    0:24:19 he came into
    0:24:20 office in January.
    0:24:21 Yeah, that is
    0:24:21 one of the
    0:24:22 fascinating questions
    0:24:22 whether this
    0:24:23 Operation Midnight
    0:24:24 Hammer
    0:24:24 increased or
    0:24:25 decreased the
    0:24:26 chance that
    0:24:27 Iran will develop
    0:24:29 a nuclear weapon.
    0:24:29 Before you ask
    0:24:30 any more questions,
    0:24:31 I have to refute
    0:24:31 virtually everything
    0:24:32 he just said,
    0:24:33 which is completely
    0:24:33 false.
    0:24:34 I mean, really
    0:24:34 everything?
    0:24:35 There was not one
    0:24:35 thing I said
    0:24:36 that was true?
    0:24:37 Just one thing.
    0:24:37 I mean, Iran
    0:24:38 is a nation
    0:24:39 over there
    0:24:39 somewhere.
    0:24:40 You got that
    0:24:40 part right.
    0:24:41 All right.
    0:24:41 22 years of
    0:24:42 working on Iran
    0:24:42 and I got that
    0:24:43 right.
    0:24:44 But do you know
    0:24:44 the population
    0:24:45 of Iran?
    0:24:45 92 million.
    0:24:46 Okay.
    0:24:49 So, first of all,
    0:24:50 they were trying
    0:24:50 to buy a
    0:24:51 light water reactor
    0:24:52 from the Europeans
    0:24:53 or the Chinese
    0:24:54 in the 1990s
    0:24:54 and Bill Clinton
    0:24:55 wouldn’t let them
    0:24:58 and put tremendous
    0:24:58 pressure on China
    0:24:59 to prevent them
    0:25:00 from selling them
    0:25:01 a light water reactor,
    0:25:02 a turnkey reactor
    0:25:03 that produces
    0:25:04 waste that’s
    0:25:05 so polluted
    0:25:05 with impurities
    0:25:06 that you can’t
    0:25:07 make nuclear
    0:25:07 weapons fuel
    0:25:08 out of it.
    0:25:08 By the way,
    0:25:09 they never have
    0:25:10 to this day
    0:25:11 had a reprocessing
    0:25:12 facility for
    0:25:13 reprocessing
    0:25:14 plutonium,
    0:25:15 even their current
    0:25:15 plutonium waste
    0:25:17 from their heavy
    0:25:17 water reactor
    0:25:18 at Boucher
    0:25:19 to make weapons
    0:25:19 fuel out of that.
    0:25:20 They have no
    0:25:21 plutonium root
    0:25:21 to the bomb.
    0:25:22 Under the JCPOA…
    0:25:22 But they have that
    0:25:23 at Iraq,
    0:25:23 not Boucher.
    0:25:24 There’s a difference
    0:25:25 between Iraq.
    0:25:26 Iraq is a…
    0:25:27 Iraq is where
    0:25:27 they pour concrete
    0:25:28 into the reactor
    0:25:29 and shut it
    0:25:29 down.
    0:25:30 And the reason
    0:25:31 they pour concrete…
    0:25:32 Under the JCPOA…
    0:25:33 Not they,
    0:25:33 but the Obama
    0:25:34 administration is right,
    0:25:36 under the JCPOA,
    0:25:37 poured concrete
    0:25:38 into the Calendria
    0:25:40 in order to prevent
    0:25:40 them from using
    0:25:41 that reactor
    0:25:42 to reprocess
    0:25:42 plutonium.
    0:25:43 So there’s a
    0:25:44 distinction between
    0:25:44 Iraq and Boucher.
    0:25:46 Scott’s exactly right.
    0:25:47 Boucher is a reactor,
    0:25:48 a heavy water reactor
    0:25:49 provided by the Russians,
    0:25:50 as I described,
    0:25:52 for the generation
    0:25:54 of electricity.
    0:25:55 It’s proliferation
    0:25:56 proof.
    0:25:58 Iraq is the opposite.
    0:25:59 It’s a heavy water
    0:26:00 reactor that was built
    0:26:01 for a plutonium pathway
    0:26:03 to nuclear weapons,
    0:26:04 which is exactly why
    0:26:05 under the JCPOA,
    0:26:05 they literally had
    0:26:06 to pour concrete
    0:26:07 into the middle of it
    0:26:08 to prevent it
    0:26:09 from reprocessing
    0:26:09 plutonium.
    0:26:10 I think we’re going
    0:26:11 to need a scientist
    0:26:13 to come in here
    0:26:14 and split the difference
    0:26:15 or maybe we need
    0:26:17 to go and look up
    0:26:18 some IAEA documents
    0:26:19 because I don’t believe
    0:26:20 that Iraq ever had
    0:26:21 a reprocessing facility
    0:26:23 for their plutonium waste.
    0:26:25 And the deal
    0:26:26 under the JCPOA,
    0:26:27 the Russians would come
    0:26:28 and get all their
    0:26:28 plutonium waste,
    0:26:29 which the waste
    0:26:30 comes out all polluted
    0:26:32 and not useful.
    0:26:33 You need the reprocessing
    0:26:34 facility to get
    0:26:36 all of the impurities out.
    0:26:37 It could be that
    0:26:38 I’m wrong about that,
    0:26:39 but I don’t believe
    0:26:39 that they ever had
    0:26:41 a reprocessing facility
    0:26:42 at Iraq
    0:26:43 that they could use
    0:26:43 to remove
    0:26:44 all those impurities
    0:26:46 and then have
    0:26:47 weapons-grade
    0:26:48 plutonium fuel
    0:26:50 as the North Koreans do.
    0:26:51 So the Obama administration
    0:26:52 was very clear
    0:26:53 under the JCPOA,
    0:26:53 we are going to
    0:26:54 pour concrete
    0:26:57 into the Iraq facility,
    0:26:59 as Scott acknowledged,
    0:27:00 because we are concerned
    0:27:02 that Iraq can be used
    0:27:04 for reprocessing plutonium,
    0:27:05 for a plutonium pathway
    0:27:06 to a nuclear weapon.
    0:27:07 It can be used,
    0:27:07 but we don’t know
    0:27:08 if it was used.
    0:27:09 Oh, wait, no,
    0:27:10 it never was.
    0:27:10 There never was
    0:27:12 any reprocessing
    0:27:13 of weapons fuel there.
    0:27:14 But there was concrete.
    0:27:15 I’m happy to.
    0:27:16 There’s no indication.
    0:27:16 For your viewers
    0:27:17 who are interested
    0:27:17 and not to plug
    0:27:18 my own podcast,
    0:27:19 Lex, I apologize.
    0:27:20 It is a very good podcast.
    0:27:21 I just recently
    0:27:22 had David Albright
    0:27:23 on my podcast,
    0:27:24 who is actually
    0:27:25 a physicist
    0:27:27 and a weapons inspector
    0:27:28 and goes into
    0:27:28 a lot of detail
    0:27:29 about the Iranian
    0:27:30 nuclear program.
    0:27:32 Please listen to the podcast.
    0:27:33 Iran Breakdown,
    0:27:33 by the way,
    0:27:34 is the name of the podcast.
    0:27:35 Yeah, and David’s
    0:27:35 the president
    0:27:36 of the Institute
    0:27:36 for Science
    0:27:37 and National Security.
    0:27:38 By the way,
    0:27:39 I spent decades on this.
    0:27:40 And to his credit,
    0:27:41 he was one of the
    0:27:42 deep skeptics
    0:27:43 of the Bush administration’s
    0:27:44 rush to war with Iraq.
    0:27:45 That’s not true.
    0:27:47 He vouched for claims
    0:27:47 that there were
    0:27:49 chemical weapons in Iraq
    0:27:49 and later said
    0:27:50 he was sorry for it.
    0:27:51 Again, I mentioned
    0:27:52 the Bush administration’s
    0:27:53 rush to war
    0:27:54 based on their claims
    0:27:55 that Saddam
    0:27:56 was building nuclear weapons.
    0:27:57 He did debunk
    0:27:58 the aluminum tubes, though.
    0:28:00 He debunked it
    0:28:01 and was a deep skeptic,
    0:28:01 again,
    0:28:03 of the rush to war
    0:28:03 in Iraq.
    0:28:04 You know,
    0:28:05 the argument today,
    0:28:06 Lex,
    0:28:06 which I think
    0:28:07 is the more interesting argument,
    0:28:08 because there are
    0:28:09 very few people
    0:28:10 left today
    0:28:11 who don’t believe
    0:28:12 that the Iranians
    0:28:13 were building
    0:28:14 the nuclear weapons
    0:28:15 capability
    0:28:16 that gave them
    0:28:16 the option
    0:28:18 to build nuclear weapons.
    0:28:19 I already said that.
    0:28:20 We can debate
    0:28:21 whether they had
    0:28:22 decided to,
    0:28:23 and I’m interested
    0:28:25 to hear Scott’s opinion
    0:28:25 on this,
    0:28:26 but the recent intelligence
    0:28:27 that has come out
    0:28:29 that the Iranian
    0:28:30 nuclear weapons scientists
    0:28:31 have begun
    0:28:32 preliminary work
    0:28:34 on building a warhead
    0:28:35 came out from where?
    0:28:36 This intelligence
    0:28:37 that came out,
    0:28:38 who put that
    0:28:40 into Israeli claims?
    0:28:41 not verified
    0:28:41 by the U.S.
    0:28:42 and the Wall Street
    0:28:43 Journal anywhere,
    0:28:43 right?
    0:28:44 Let’s talk about
    0:28:46 all of my list
    0:28:47 of refutations
    0:28:48 of all your false claims
    0:28:49 from 10 years ago.
    0:28:50 The Wall Street Journal
    0:28:51 did verify this.
    0:28:51 There’s a lot of
    0:28:52 false claims to refute.
    0:28:53 One at a time.
    0:28:54 Lawrence Norman
    0:28:55 actually wrote a piece.
    0:28:56 This was during
    0:28:57 the Biden administration
    0:28:58 because the Biden
    0:29:00 DNI
    0:29:01 had actually come out
    0:29:02 and for the first time
    0:29:03 in their annual
    0:29:03 threat assessment
    0:29:05 had removed a line
    0:29:06 that said,
    0:29:08 Iran is not currently
    0:29:10 working on developing
    0:29:11 any capabilities
    0:29:11 that would put it
    0:29:12 in a position
    0:29:14 to actually deliver
    0:29:18 a nuclear warhead.
    0:29:20 And what became
    0:29:20 the Lawrence Norman
    0:29:21 piece in the Wall Street Journal
    0:29:23 was that there actually
    0:29:24 was initial work done
    0:29:25 on metallurgy
    0:29:27 and on computer modeling.
    0:29:28 And so those actually
    0:29:29 were defined terms
    0:29:30 in Section T
    0:29:32 of the 2015 JCPOA,
    0:29:34 which defined weaponization
    0:29:35 in that section.
    0:29:37 and metallurgy
    0:29:37 and computer modeling
    0:29:39 were some of the initial steps
    0:29:40 so that the DNI
    0:29:40 was very concerned
    0:29:41 under Biden
    0:29:43 that these initial steps
    0:29:44 meant that either Khamenei
    0:29:45 had given the green lights
    0:29:48 or nuclear weapons scientists
    0:29:49 in order to get ahead
    0:29:49 of the boss
    0:29:50 so they could be
    0:29:50 in a position
    0:29:51 if he decided
    0:29:52 to move forward on this
    0:29:54 were in a position
    0:29:55 and their timelines
    0:29:57 were therefore expedited.
    0:29:58 So it’s interesting.
    0:29:58 I mean, again,
    0:29:59 you’ve got the DNI
    0:30:00 under Biden.
    0:30:01 You’ve got the CIA
    0:30:02 director,
    0:30:03 John Ratcliffe.
    0:30:04 You’ve got Israeli intelligence.
    0:30:06 You’ve got the Wall Street Journal
    0:30:08 and you’ve got the IAEA
    0:30:09 asking questions of Iran
    0:30:10 on its past
    0:30:11 weaponization activities.
    0:30:13 Why are you denying us?
    0:30:14 Who’s the dog
    0:30:15 that didn’t bark there?
    0:30:16 The current director
    0:30:17 of national intelligence
    0:30:17 who issued
    0:30:18 her threat assessment,
    0:30:20 Trump’s director
    0:30:20 of national intelligence,
    0:30:21 Tulsi Gabbard,
    0:30:21 who issued
    0:30:22 her threat assessment
    0:30:23 in February
    0:30:24 that repeated
    0:30:25 the exact same language
    0:30:26 that from the
    0:30:26 national intelligence
    0:30:28 estimate of 2007
    0:30:29 and that the CIA
    0:30:30 and the NIE,
    0:30:31 the National Intelligence
    0:30:32 Council,
    0:30:33 have reaffirmed
    0:30:35 repeatedly ever since then,
    0:30:36 which is that
    0:30:36 Supreme Leader
    0:30:37 has not decided
    0:30:38 to pursue nuclear weapons.
    0:30:39 He has not made
    0:30:40 the political decision
    0:30:41 to pursue nuclear weapons.
    0:30:42 She testified,
    0:30:44 in fact,
    0:30:45 under oath
    0:30:46 in front of the Senate
    0:30:46 in March.
    0:30:47 And then,
    0:30:48 according to CNN
    0:30:49 and the New York Times,
    0:30:50 there was a brand new
    0:30:51 assessment
    0:30:53 that was put together
    0:30:54 the week before
    0:30:55 the attack
    0:30:57 was launched,
    0:30:58 reaffirming the same thing.
    0:30:59 And,
    0:31:00 at least in history,
    0:31:02 if you read it in Haaretz,
    0:31:03 Mossad agreed
    0:31:04 with the CIA.
    0:31:05 I’d like to just sort of
    0:31:06 quote CIA director
    0:31:07 John Ratcliffe
    0:31:08 because Scott brought up
    0:31:09 the CIA
    0:31:10 and the Intelligence Committee.
    0:31:11 I think Ratcliffe
    0:31:12 had a good way
    0:31:13 of looking at this
    0:31:14 and that he said is,
    0:31:15 you know,
    0:31:15 when you’re in the
    0:31:16 99-yard line
    0:31:17 as a football team,
    0:31:18 you have the intention
    0:31:19 to score a goal,
    0:31:20 quote-unquote.
    0:31:21 And what he was
    0:31:23 actually pointing to
    0:31:23 is,
    0:31:24 let’s not talk
    0:31:25 about this debate
    0:31:26 about whether Khamenei
    0:31:26 had given the order
    0:31:27 or not given the order
    0:31:29 because Khamenei knows
    0:31:29 that if he gives an order,
    0:31:31 the U.S. and Israeli
    0:31:31 intelligence community
    0:31:33 will pick up on that order
    0:31:34 and that will be
    0:31:35 the trigger for strikes.
    0:31:37 What Ratcliffe is saying
    0:31:37 is that Khamenei
    0:31:38 had built the nuclear
    0:31:40 weapons capability.
    0:31:42 He’s at the 99-yard line
    0:31:44 and both the CIA
    0:31:46 and European leaders,
    0:31:46 the European
    0:31:48 intelligence community
    0:31:48 has said for years
    0:31:49 that if Iran
    0:31:50 has that capability
    0:31:51 and they’re on the
    0:31:52 99-yard line,
    0:31:53 at that point
    0:31:53 it’s going to be
    0:31:55 too late to stop them
    0:31:56 once that decision
    0:31:56 is made
    0:31:57 to assemble
    0:31:58 the final warhead,
    0:31:59 which, by the way,
    0:32:00 is the final piece
    0:32:01 of what you need
    0:32:02 for a deliverable
    0:32:02 nuclear weapon.
    0:32:03 That’s not true
    0:32:03 at all, right?
    0:32:04 They have to resort
    0:32:05 to a crude analogy
    0:32:07 about football yard lines
    0:32:07 because they can’t
    0:32:08 say the truth,
    0:32:09 which is that
    0:32:10 they had zero
    0:32:12 weapons-grade uranium.
    0:32:13 They were not
    0:32:13 producing it.
    0:32:14 They were trying
    0:32:16 to get the United States
    0:32:17 back in the deal
    0:32:18 that they are still
    0:32:18 officially within
    0:32:20 the JCPOA
    0:32:20 with the rest
    0:32:21 of the U.N. Security Council
    0:32:22 wherein they shipped
    0:32:23 all of their
    0:32:25 enriched uranium stockpile
    0:32:26 out of the country
    0:32:26 to France
    0:32:27 to be transferred
    0:32:28 to fuel rods.
    0:32:30 Their insistence
    0:32:31 was on their
    0:32:32 continued ability
    0:32:34 to enrich uranium.
    0:32:35 And so this goes
    0:32:37 to one of the things
    0:32:38 that he at least
    0:32:39 sort of brought up
    0:32:41 that deserves addressing.
    0:32:42 When Trump came
    0:32:43 into power
    0:32:45 in 2017,
    0:32:46 he decided
    0:32:47 on this
    0:32:49 Israeli-influenced
    0:32:50 maximum pressure campaign
    0:32:51 and he said
    0:32:52 the JCPOA
    0:32:53 was the worst deal
    0:32:54 in the history
    0:32:55 of any time
    0:32:55 any two men
    0:32:56 ever shook hands
    0:32:57 and all these kinds
    0:32:57 of things
    0:32:59 in his hyperbolic way,
    0:32:59 which of course
    0:33:00 made it very difficult
    0:33:01 for him to figure out
    0:33:02 a way to stay in the thing
    0:33:04 or to compromise
    0:33:05 along its lines.
    0:33:07 But the fact of the matter
    0:33:08 is if he had just
    0:33:09 played it straight
    0:33:09 and said,
    0:33:11 listen, Ayatollah,
    0:33:12 we don’t have to be friends,
    0:33:13 but we do have
    0:33:14 a deal here
    0:33:15 which my predecessor
    0:33:16 struck with you
    0:33:17 but I don’t like
    0:33:18 these sunset provisions
    0:33:19 and I want to send
    0:33:20 my guys over there
    0:33:23 and see if we can
    0:33:23 figure out a way
    0:33:24 to convince you
    0:33:25 that we really wish
    0:33:26 you’d shut down
    0:33:27 calm altogether
    0:33:28 or this or that
    0:33:28 or the other thing
    0:33:29 and try to approach
    0:33:30 them in good faith.
    0:33:32 We talk about yard lines
    0:33:32 and things.
    0:33:34 We had a JCPOA,
    0:33:35 okay?
    0:33:37 So toward peace
    0:33:37 we were past
    0:33:38 the 50-yard line.
    0:33:40 Donald Trump
    0:33:40 could have gone
    0:33:41 to Tehran
    0:33:42 and shook hands
    0:33:43 with the Ayatollah
    0:33:44 as Dick Cheney
    0:33:45 complained
    0:33:46 that we had
    0:33:47 cold relations
    0:33:47 with Iran
    0:33:48 back in 1998
    0:33:49 when he was
    0:33:50 the head of Halliburton
    0:33:50 and said,
    0:33:51 we can do business
    0:33:52 with these guys.
    0:33:53 Donald Trump
    0:33:53 could have gone
    0:33:54 right over there
    0:33:55 and done business
    0:33:56 and instead
    0:33:57 he gave in
    0:33:58 to Netanyahu’s lies
    0:34:00 in this ridiculous
    0:34:01 hoax
    0:34:02 that they had uncovered
    0:34:02 all these Iranian
    0:34:03 nuclear documents
    0:34:04 which he pretends
    0:34:05 is legit
    0:34:06 where all they did
    0:34:07 was recycle
    0:34:08 the fake
    0:34:10 Israeli forged
    0:34:11 smoking laptop
    0:34:12 of 2005
    0:34:14 which they lied
    0:34:15 and pretended
    0:34:16 was the laptop
    0:34:18 of an Iranian scientist
    0:34:19 that was smuggled
    0:34:19 out of Iran
    0:34:20 by his wife
    0:34:22 and had all this proof
    0:34:23 of a secret Iranian
    0:34:24 nuclear weapons program
    0:34:24 on it
    0:34:25 but every bit
    0:34:26 of that was refuted
    0:34:27 including the thing
    0:34:28 about the warhead
    0:34:28 he said
    0:34:29 was refuted
    0:34:30 by David Albright
    0:34:31 and his friend
    0:34:31 David Sanger
    0:34:32 in the New York Times
    0:34:34 that all those sketches
    0:34:36 of the warhead
    0:34:36 for the missile
    0:34:37 were wrong
    0:34:38 because
    0:34:39 when Mossad
    0:34:41 forged the documents
    0:34:42 they were making
    0:34:43 a good educated guess
    0:34:44 but they didn’t know
    0:34:45 that Iran
    0:34:45 had completely
    0:34:46 redesigned
    0:34:47 the nose cone
    0:34:48 of their mid-range missiles
    0:34:49 and had an entirely
    0:34:50 different nose cone
    0:34:50 that would require
    0:34:51 an entirely different
    0:34:52 warhead
    0:34:53 than that described
    0:34:54 in the documents
    0:34:54 and why would they
    0:34:55 have been designing
    0:34:56 a warhead
    0:34:57 to fit in a nose cone
    0:34:58 that they were abandoning
    0:34:59 and so that was refuted
    0:35:00 David Albright
    0:35:01 completely discredited
    0:35:02 your claims there pal
    0:35:03 and then
    0:35:05 they later admitted
    0:35:06 that it was a CIA laptop
    0:35:07 there was no laptop
    0:35:09 and they later admitted
    0:35:10 Ali Heinonen admitted
    0:35:12 who was a very hawkish
    0:35:13 one of the
    0:35:14 not director
    0:35:15 but a high level
    0:35:16 executive
    0:35:17 at the International
    0:35:18 Atomic Energy Agency
    0:35:18 admitted
    0:35:19 that that intelligence
    0:35:21 was brought into the stream
    0:35:23 by the Mujahideen E. Kalk
    0:35:24 communist terrorist cult
    0:35:25 that used to work
    0:35:26 for the Ayatollah
    0:35:27 during the revolution
    0:35:29 then turned on him
    0:35:29 and he turned on them
    0:35:30 and kicked them out
    0:35:31 then they went to work
    0:35:32 for Saddam Hussein
    0:35:32 where they helped
    0:35:33 crush the Shiite
    0:35:34 and Kurdish insurrection
    0:35:35 of 1991
    0:35:37 and then they became
    0:35:37 America
    0:35:38 Donald Rumsfeld’s
    0:35:40 and Ariel Sharon’s
    0:35:41 sock puppets
    0:35:43 and later Ehud Olmert’s
    0:35:43 sock puppets
    0:35:44 when the United States
    0:35:46 invaded Iraq
    0:35:47 and took possession of them
    0:35:48 they’re now under
    0:35:49 American protection
    0:35:50 in Albania
    0:35:51 and these are the same
    0:35:52 kooks who just a few
    0:35:53 weeks ago
    0:35:53 you might remember
    0:35:54 saying look
    0:35:55 new satellite pictures
    0:35:56 of a whole new
    0:35:57 nuclear facility
    0:35:58 in Iran
    0:35:59 isn’t it funny
    0:36:00 how no one ever
    0:36:00 brought that up again
    0:36:01 didn’t bomb it
    0:36:02 it was nothing
    0:36:02 it was fake
    0:36:03 just like before
    0:36:04 when they said
    0:36:04 hey look
    0:36:04 here’s a picture
    0:36:05 of a vault door
    0:36:07 and behind that
    0:36:07 is where the
    0:36:08 secret nuclear weapons
    0:36:08 program is
    0:36:09 except turned out
    0:36:10 that vault door
    0:36:11 was a stock photo
    0:36:12 from a vault company
    0:36:13 it meant nothing
    0:36:14 and they had
    0:36:15 repeatedly
    0:36:16 you know
    0:36:16 made claims
    0:36:17 that were totally
    0:36:18 refuted
    0:36:19 just like
    0:36:20 I’m about to refute
    0:36:20 his claim
    0:36:21 that they ever
    0:36:22 were the ones
    0:36:23 who revealed
    0:36:24 for example
    0:36:24 Natanz
    0:36:25 he was implying
    0:36:26 that Natanz
    0:36:26 and Kham
    0:36:27 were both
    0:36:28 buried and hidden
    0:36:30 until revealed
    0:36:31 I think you said
    0:36:32 by dissident groups
    0:36:33 that is the
    0:36:33 MEK
    0:36:34 sock puppets
    0:36:34 of the Israelis
    0:36:35 but it was
    0:36:36 your friend
    0:36:37 David Albright
    0:36:38 not the Israeli
    0:36:39 Mossad
    0:36:40 through the MEK
    0:36:41 who revealed
    0:36:41 Natanz
    0:36:42 facility
    0:36:43 ask him
    0:36:43 he’ll fist fight
    0:36:44 you over it
    0:36:45 he claims credit
    0:36:46 he was first
    0:36:46 and said
    0:36:47 this is a facility
    0:36:48 however
    0:36:49 they were not
    0:36:50 in violation
    0:36:51 of their safeguards
    0:36:51 agreement
    0:36:52 with the IAEA
    0:36:53 they were still
    0:36:54 six months away
    0:36:54 from introducing
    0:36:55 any nuclear
    0:36:56 material
    0:36:57 to that facility
    0:36:58 and so
    0:36:59 when it was
    0:37:00 revealed
    0:37:00 they weren’t
    0:37:00 in violation
    0:37:01 of anything
    0:37:03 and then
    0:37:04 on Kham
    0:37:05 we had a huge
    0:37:05 fight about this
    0:37:06 at the time
    0:37:07 the party line
    0:37:08 came down
    0:37:09 from all the
    0:37:09 government officials
    0:37:10 and the media
    0:37:11 that they had
    0:37:12 just exposed
    0:37:13 the facility
    0:37:13 there
    0:37:13 Kham
    0:37:14 is Fordow
    0:37:14 same thing
    0:37:16 when in fact
    0:37:16 that wasn’t
    0:37:16 true
    0:37:18 the Iranians
    0:37:19 had announced
    0:37:21 to the IAEA
    0:37:21 that we have
    0:37:22 built a new
    0:37:23 facility here
    0:37:23 and we
    0:37:24 are going
    0:37:25 to introduce
    0:37:26 nuclear material
    0:37:27 into it
    0:37:27 within six
    0:37:28 months
    0:37:28 so here’s
    0:37:29 your official
    0:37:29 notification
    0:37:31 and then a few
    0:37:31 days later
    0:37:32 they just
    0:37:32 pretended to
    0:37:33 expose it
    0:37:34 when it was
    0:37:35 the Iranians
    0:37:35 themselves
    0:37:35 who had
    0:37:36 admitted to
    0:37:36 it
    0:37:38 in going
    0:37:39 along
    0:37:39 with their
    0:37:41 obligations
    0:37:41 under their
    0:37:42 safeguards agreement
    0:37:43 so it’s just
    0:37:44 completely wrong
    0:37:44 why do they
    0:37:45 bury them
    0:37:45 they buried
    0:37:45 them for
    0:37:46 protection
    0:37:47 because clearly
    0:37:48 the Israelis
    0:37:48 have indicated
    0:37:49 since the
    0:37:50 1990s
    0:37:50 they consider
    0:37:51 any nuclear
    0:37:52 program in
    0:37:52 Iran
    0:37:53 to be the
    0:37:54 same thing
    0:37:54 as an
    0:37:54 advanced
    0:37:55 nuclear
    0:37:55 weapons
    0:37:56 program
    0:37:56 you’re hearing
    0:37:57 that today
    0:37:57 for them
    0:37:58 to have
    0:37:58 a nuclear
    0:37:59 facility
    0:37:59 at all
    0:38:01 is equivalent
    0:38:01 to them
    0:38:02 going ahead
    0:38:02 and breaking
    0:38:03 out
    0:38:03 and making
    0:38:04 a nuclear
    0:38:04 weapon
    0:38:05 and so
    0:38:05 of course
    0:38:05 they know
    0:38:06 that they
    0:38:06 have to
    0:38:06 have it
    0:38:06 buried
    0:38:07 to protect
    0:38:07 it from
    0:38:07 Israel
    0:38:08 that doesn’t
    0:38:09 mean
    0:38:09 that they
    0:38:10 are trying
    0:38:10 to get
    0:38:11 nukes
    0:38:12 it does
    0:38:12 mean
    0:38:13 as I
    0:38:13 already
    0:38:13 said
    0:38:14 that they
    0:38:14 wanted to
    0:38:15 prove to
    0:38:15 the world
    0:38:16 that they
    0:38:16 know how
    0:38:17 to enrich
    0:38:18 uranium
    0:38:19 and that
    0:38:20 they have
    0:38:21 facilities buried
    0:38:21 deeply enough
    0:38:22 where if we
    0:38:22 attack them
    0:38:23 that would
    0:38:24 incentivize them
    0:38:24 to making
    0:38:25 nukes
    0:38:25 and then we
    0:38:26 might be
    0:38:26 unable to
    0:38:27 stop them
    0:38:28 without going
    0:38:28 all the way
    0:38:29 toward a
    0:38:29 regime change
    0:38:30 which they’re
    0:38:31 bluffing
    0:38:32 basically betting
    0:38:33 that we won’t
    0:38:34 go that far
    0:38:35 considering how
    0:38:35 gigantic their
    0:38:36 country is
    0:38:36 and how
    0:38:37 mountainous
    0:38:37 and populous
    0:38:38 it is
    0:38:39 compared to
    0:38:39 Iraq next
    0:38:40 door
    0:38:40 now here’s
    0:38:41 some more
    0:38:41 things that
    0:38:42 he said
    0:38:42 that weren’t
    0:38:42 true
    0:38:43 so he said
    0:38:44 Iran has
    0:38:44 been killing
    0:38:45 Americans
    0:38:45 all this
    0:38:46 time
    0:38:47 well that’s
    0:38:48 almost always
    0:38:48 a reference
    0:38:49 to Beirut
    0:38:49 1983
    0:38:50 which you
    0:38:51 can read
    0:38:51 in the book
    0:38:52 By Way
    0:38:52 of Deception
    0:38:53 by Victor
    0:38:53 Ostrowski
    0:38:54 the former
    0:38:54 Mossad
    0:38:55 officer
    0:38:55 that the
    0:38:56 Israelis
    0:38:56 knew
    0:38:57 that they
    0:38:58 were building
    0:38:58 that truck
    0:38:59 bomb to
    0:38:59 bomb the
    0:39:00 marines
    0:39:00 with
    0:39:01 and withheld
    0:39:01 that information
    0:39:02 from the
    0:39:03 United States
    0:39:03 and said
    0:39:03 that’s what
    0:39:04 they get
    0:39:04 for sticking
    0:39:05 their big
    0:39:05 noses in
    0:39:06 and that
    0:39:07 is in the
    0:39:07 book By Way
    0:39:08 of Deception
    0:39:09 by Victor
    0:39:09 Ostrowski
    0:39:10 and by the
    0:39:11 way the
    0:39:11 Israelis
    0:39:11 were friends
    0:39:12 with them
    0:39:13 with Iran
    0:39:14 at the time
    0:39:15 in all
    0:39:16 through the
    0:39:17 1980s
    0:39:17 and it was
    0:39:18 just a couple
    0:39:18 of years
    0:39:19 later when
    0:39:19 Ronald Reagan
    0:39:20 sold Iran
    0:39:20 missiles and
    0:39:21 using the
    0:39:22 Israelis as
    0:39:22 cutouts to
    0:39:23 do so when
    0:39:24 he switched
    0:39:25 sides temporarily
    0:39:25 in the
    0:39:26 Iran-Iraq
    0:39:27 war and so
    0:39:28 that’s just
    0:39:28 and that was
    0:39:29 in 1983
    0:39:31 if Ronald Reagan
    0:39:31 can sell
    0:39:32 missiles a year
    0:39:33 or two years
    0:39:33 after that
    0:39:34 three years
    0:39:34 after that
    0:39:35 then surely
    0:39:36 the United
    0:39:36 States and
    0:39:37 the Ayatollah
    0:39:38 can bury
    0:39:38 the hatchet
    0:39:39 from that
    0:39:39 and no one’s
    0:39:40 ever even I
    0:39:40 don’t believe
    0:39:41 ever really
    0:39:41 proven that
    0:39:42 Tehran
    0:39:43 ordered that
    0:39:43 it was
    0:39:44 a Shiite
    0:39:44 militia
    0:39:45 backed by
    0:39:45 Iran
    0:39:46 that sort
    0:39:47 of proto-Hezbollah
    0:39:48 that did that
    0:39:48 attack that killed
    0:39:49 those Marines
    0:39:51 and if there’s
    0:39:52 some responsibility
    0:39:53 for then damn
    0:39:54 them like if
    0:39:54 there’s direct
    0:39:55 responsibility for
    0:39:56 that not just
    0:39:56 their support
    0:39:57 for the group
    0:39:57 then damn
    0:39:58 them for that
    0:39:59 but that’s
    0:39:59 still no reason
    0:40:00 in the world
    0:40:00 to say that
    0:40:01 we can’t get
    0:40:01 along with
    0:40:02 them now
    0:40:02 when that was
    0:40:03 in the same
    0:40:04 year Return
    0:40:04 of the Jedi
    0:40:04 came out
    0:40:05 okay and
    0:40:06 then the
    0:40:07 other one
    0:40:07 and this
    0:40:08 is always
    0:40:09 referred to
    0:40:09 you’ll see
    0:40:10 this on TV
    0:40:10 news today
    0:40:11 anyone watching
    0:40:12 this turn on
    0:40:12 TV news
    0:40:13 and you’ll hear
    0:40:13 them say
    0:40:14 Iran killed
    0:40:16 600 Americans
    0:40:16 in Iraq War
    0:40:17 II but
    0:40:18 that’s a lie
    0:40:19 there was a
    0:40:20 gigantic propaganda
    0:40:21 campaign by
    0:40:21 Dick Cheney
    0:40:22 and his
    0:40:23 co-conspirators
    0:40:24 David Petraeus
    0:40:25 and Michael
    0:40:26 Gordon of the
    0:40:26 New York Times
    0:40:27 now at the
    0:40:27 Wall Street
    0:40:28 Journal where
    0:40:29 they lied
    0:40:30 and lied
    0:40:30 like the devil
    0:40:32 for about
    0:40:33 five six
    0:40:33 months in
    0:40:34 early 2007
    0:40:36 that every
    0:40:37 time a Shiite
    0:40:38 set off a
    0:40:38 roadside
    0:40:39 bomb
    0:40:39 these new
    0:40:40 improved
    0:40:40 copper
    0:40:41 cord
    0:40:42 enhanced
    0:40:43 they’re
    0:40:44 called
    0:40:44 EFPs
    0:40:45 explosively
    0:40:46 formed
    0:40:47 penetrators
    0:40:48 now anytime
    0:40:48 that happened
    0:40:49 Iran did
    0:40:49 it
    0:40:50 which is
    0:40:51 what George
    0:40:51 Bush called
    0:40:51 shorthanding
    0:40:52 it
    0:40:52 yeah in
    0:40:52 other words
    0:40:53 just implying
    0:40:53 the lie
    0:40:54 what they’re
    0:40:54 saying is
    0:40:55 Iran
    0:40:56 backed
    0:40:56 Muqtada
    0:40:57 al-Sadr
    0:40:58 and America
    0:40:59 attacked
    0:40:59 Muqtada
    0:41:00 al-Sadr
    0:41:00 who actually
    0:41:00 they were
    0:41:01 fighting the
    0:41:01 whole war
    0:41:01 for him
    0:41:02 he remains
    0:41:02 a powerful
    0:41:03 kingmaker
    0:41:03 in that
    0:41:03 country
    0:41:04 this day
    0:41:04 he’s part
    0:41:04 of the
    0:41:05 United Iraqi
    0:41:05 alliance
    0:41:06 and in
    0:41:07 fact as long
    0:41:07 as we’re
    0:41:07 taking a
    0:41:08 long form
    0:41:08 here
    0:41:09 he was
    0:41:09 the least
    0:41:10 Iran tied
    0:41:11 of the
    0:41:12 three major
    0:41:12 factions
    0:41:13 in the
    0:41:14 United Iraqi
    0:41:14 alliance
    0:41:14 in Iraq
    0:41:15 War II
    0:41:16 the other
    0:41:16 two major
    0:41:16 factions
    0:41:17 were
    0:41:17 Dawah
    0:41:18 and the
    0:41:18 Supreme
    0:41:19 Islamic
    0:41:19 Council
    0:41:20 and they
    0:41:20 had been
    0:41:20 living in
    0:41:21 Iran
    0:41:21 for the
    0:41:22 last 20
    0:41:22 years
    0:41:23 they’re
    0:41:23 they’re
    0:41:23 the ones
    0:41:23 who came
    0:41:24 and took
    0:41:24 over
    0:41:24 Baghdad
    0:41:25 Muqtada
    0:41:26 al-Sadr
    0:41:26 was a
    0:41:27 Shiite
    0:41:27 and close
    0:41:28 to Iran
    0:41:28 but he’s
    0:41:28 also an
    0:41:29 Iraqi
    0:41:29 nationalist
    0:41:30 and at
    0:41:30 times he
    0:41:31 allied
    0:41:31 with the
    0:41:32 Sunnis
    0:41:32 and tried
    0:41:33 to limit
    0:41:34 American
    0:41:35 and Iranian
    0:41:36 influence
    0:41:36 in the
    0:41:37 country
    0:41:37 was more
    0:41:37 of an
    0:41:38 Arab
    0:41:38 and an
    0:41:38 Iraqi
    0:41:39 nationalist
    0:41:39 and the
    0:41:40 Americans
    0:41:40 decided
    0:41:41 they hated
    0:41:41 him the
    0:41:41 most
    0:41:42 not because
    0:41:42 he was
    0:41:42 the most
    0:41:43 Iran
    0:41:43 tied
    0:41:44 but because
    0:41:44 he was
    0:41:45 willing to
    0:41:45 tell us
    0:41:46 and them
    0:41:46 two
    0:41:47 to get
    0:41:47 the
    0:41:47 hell
    0:41:47 out
    0:41:48 and
    0:41:48 America
    0:41:49 was betting
    0:41:53 that
    0:41:53 they would
    0:41:54 eventually
    0:41:54 end up
    0:41:54 needing
    0:41:55 our
    0:41:55 money
    0:41:55 and
    0:41:55 guns
    0:41:56 more
    0:41:56 than
    0:41:56 they
    0:41:56 would
    0:41:56 need
    0:41:57 their
    0:41:57 Iranian
    0:41:57 friends
    0:41:58 and
    0:41:58 co-religionists
    0:41:59 and sponsors
    0:41:59 next door
    0:42:00 which of course
    0:42:01 did not work out
    0:42:01 and America’s
    0:42:02 had minimal
    0:42:02 influence
    0:42:03 in super
    0:42:04 majority
    0:42:04 Shiite
    0:42:04 Iraq
    0:42:05 ever since
    0:42:05 the end
    0:42:06 of Iraq
    0:42:06 War II
    0:42:07 and we
    0:42:07 can get
    0:42:07 back
    0:42:08 later
    0:42:08 in the
    0:42:08 show
    0:42:08 to
    0:42:09 how
    0:42:09 Israel
    0:42:09 helped
    0:42:10 lie
    0:42:10 us
    0:42:10 into
    0:42:10 that
    0:42:11 horrific
    0:42:11 war
    0:42:12 as well
    0:42:12 but the
    0:42:13 fact of
    0:42:13 the matter
    0:42:13 is
    0:42:14 it was
    0:42:14 not
    0:42:15 Iranians
    0:42:15 setting
    0:42:15 off
    0:42:15 those
    0:42:15 bombs
    0:42:16 and
    0:42:16 it
    0:42:16 was
    0:42:16 not
    0:42:16 even
    0:42:17 Iranians
    0:42:18 making
    0:42:18 those
    0:42:18 bombs
    0:42:19 and
    0:42:19 I
    0:42:19 show
    0:42:19 in my
    0:42:19 book
    0:42:20 enough
    0:42:20 already
    0:42:21 I have
    0:42:22 a solid
    0:42:22 dozen
    0:42:23 sources
    0:42:24 enough
    0:42:25 already
    0:42:26 thank you
    0:42:26 I have
    0:42:26 a solid
    0:42:27 dozen
    0:42:27 sources
    0:42:28 including
    0:42:29 Michael
    0:42:29 Gordon’s
    0:42:30 own
    0:42:30 colleague
    0:42:31 Alyssa
    0:42:31 Rubin
    0:42:32 at the
    0:42:32 New York
    0:42:32 Times
    0:42:33 and many
    0:42:33 others
    0:42:35 where they
    0:42:35 found
    0:42:36 these
    0:42:36 bomb
    0:42:36 factories
    0:42:37 in
    0:42:38 Shiite
    0:42:38 Iraq
    0:42:39 they were
    0:42:39 being
    0:42:39 made
    0:42:40 by Shiite
    0:42:40 Arab
    0:42:41 Iraqis
    0:42:42 and
    0:42:42 when
    0:42:43 David
    0:42:44 Petraeus
    0:42:44 was going
    0:42:44 to have
    0:42:45 a big
    0:42:45 press
    0:42:45 conference
    0:42:46 and they
    0:42:46 laid
    0:42:46 out
    0:42:46 all
    0:42:46 the
    0:42:47 components
    0:42:47 all
    0:42:47 the
    0:42:48 reporters
    0:42:48 gathered
    0:42:48 around
    0:42:49 and
    0:42:49 they
    0:42:49 started
    0:42:49 noticing
    0:42:50 that
    0:42:50 the
    0:42:50 components
    0:42:50 said
    0:42:51 made
    0:42:51 in
    0:42:51 UAE
    0:42:52 made
    0:42:52 in
    0:42:53 Haditha
    0:42:53 that is
    0:42:54 Iraq
    0:42:54 in other
    0:42:54 words
    0:42:55 there was
    0:42:55 no
    0:42:55 evidence
    0:42:56 whatsoever
    0:42:57 that
    0:42:57 these
    0:42:57 came
    0:42:57 from
    0:42:58 Iran
    0:42:59 and
    0:42:59 then
    0:42:59 they
    0:42:59 called
    0:43:00 off
    0:43:00 the
    0:43:00 press
    0:43:00 conference
    0:43:00 and
    0:43:01 Stephen
    0:43:01 Hadley
    0:43:02 George
    0:43:02 Bush’s
    0:43:03 second
    0:43:03 national
    0:43:04 security
    0:43:04 advisor
    0:43:05 admitted
    0:43:05 that
    0:43:05 yeah
    0:43:05 we
    0:43:06 didn’t
    0:43:06 have
    0:43:06 the
    0:43:06 evidence
    0:43:07 that
    0:43:07 we
    0:43:07 needed
    0:43:08 to
    0:43:08 present
    0:43:08 that
    0:43:09 and
    0:43:16 deeply
    0:43:16 involved
    0:43:16 in
    0:43:17 Iraq
    0:43:17 war
    0:43:18 reconfirming
    0:43:19 that
    0:43:19 that
    0:43:19 there
    0:43:19 was
    0:43:19 never
    0:43:20 any
    0:43:20 evidence
    0:43:20 that
    0:43:20 these
    0:43:21 bombs
    0:43:21 were
    0:43:21 coming
    0:43:22 across
    0:43:23 from
    0:43:23 Iran
    0:43:24 or
    0:43:25 especially
    0:43:25 that
    0:43:26 then
    0:43:26 even
    0:43:26 if
    0:43:26 they
    0:43:27 were
    0:43:27 that
    0:43:27 that
    0:43:27 was
    0:43:27 at
    0:43:28 the
    0:43:28 direction
    0:43:29 of
    0:43:29 the
    0:43:29 Quds
    0:43:29 force
    0:43:30 or
    0:43:30 the
    0:43:31 Ayatollah
    0:43:31 this
    0:43:31 was
    0:43:31 all
    0:43:32 just
    0:43:32 a
    0:43:32 propaganda
    0:43:33 campaign
    0:43:33 because
    0:43:33 Dick Cheney
    0:43:34 and David
    0:43:34 Petraeus
    0:43:34 were trying
    0:43:35 to give
    0:43:35 George Bush
    0:43:36 a reason
    0:43:37 to hit
    0:43:38 IRGC bases
    0:43:38 and start
    0:43:39 the war
    0:43:40 in 2007
    0:43:40 and this
    0:43:41 sounds crazy
    0:43:41 but there’s
    0:43:42 like four
    0:43:42 major
    0:43:42 confirming
    0:43:43 sources
    0:43:43 for it
    0:43:45 Dick Cheney’s
    0:43:45 national
    0:43:46 security
    0:43:46 advisor
    0:43:47 David
    0:43:47 Wormser
    0:43:48 who was
    0:43:48 the author
    0:43:49 of the
    0:43:49 clean
    0:43:49 break
    0:43:50 strategy
    0:43:50 which
    0:43:50 we’re
    0:43:50 going
    0:43:50 to
    0:43:51 talk
    0:43:51 about
    0:43:51 today
    0:43:52 David
    0:43:53 Wormser
    0:43:53 in 2007
    0:43:54 was saying
    0:43:55 we want
    0:43:55 to work
    0:43:55 with the
    0:43:56 Israelis
    0:43:56 to start
    0:43:57 the war
    0:43:57 with Iran
    0:43:58 to force
    0:43:58 George Bush
    0:43:59 to do
    0:43:59 an end
    0:43:59 run
    0:44:00 around
    0:44:00 George
    0:44:00 Bush
    0:44:00 and force
    0:44:01 him
    0:44:01 into
    0:44:01 the war
    0:44:02 and that
    0:44:02 was reported
    0:44:02 originally
    0:44:03 by Stephen
    0:44:03 Clemens
    0:44:04 in the
    0:44:04 Washington
    0:44:05 Note
    0:44:05 but it
    0:44:05 was later
    0:44:06 confirmed
    0:44:07 in the
    0:44:07 New York
    0:44:07 Times
    0:44:08 and by
    0:44:09 the
    0:44:09 Washington
    0:44:10 Post
    0:44:10 reporter
    0:44:10 Barton
    0:44:11 Gelman
    0:44:12 in his
    0:44:12 book
    0:44:12 Angler
    0:44:13 on Dick
    0:44:13 Cheney
    0:44:14 that there
    0:44:14 was this
    0:44:15 huge
    0:44:16 this was
    0:44:16 the end
    0:44:16 that they
    0:44:17 were going
    0:44:17 for
    0:44:18 was they
    0:44:18 were trying
    0:44:19 so hard
    0:44:19 to force
    0:44:20 a war
    0:44:21 in 2007
    0:44:21 and it
    0:44:22 was the
    0:44:22 commander
    0:44:23 of CENTCOM
    0:44:24 Admiral Fallon
    0:44:24 who said
    0:44:25 over my
    0:44:25 dead body
    0:44:26 we are
    0:44:26 not doing
    0:44:27 this
    0:44:27 and then
    0:44:28 a few
    0:44:28 months later
    0:44:29 the
    0:44:29 National
    0:44:30 Intelligence
    0:44:30 Council
    0:44:30 put out
    0:44:31 their NIE
    0:44:32 saying that
    0:44:32 there is
    0:44:32 no nuclear
    0:44:33 weapons
    0:44:33 program
    0:44:34 at all
    0:44:34 and W.
    0:44:35 Bush
    0:44:35 complained
    0:44:35 in his
    0:44:36 memoir
    0:44:36 Lex
    0:44:37 that
    0:44:38 in his
    0:44:38 story
    0:44:39 it’s
    0:44:39 the
    0:44:39 Saudi
    0:44:39 king
    0:44:40 his
    0:44:40 royal
    0:44:41 highness
    0:44:41 Abdullah
    0:44:41 rather
    0:44:42 than
    0:44:43 Ehud
    0:44:43 Olmert
    0:44:44 but he’s
    0:44:44 saying
    0:44:45 I’m sorry
    0:44:45 your
    0:44:46 highness
    0:44:47 majesty
    0:44:48 I can’t
    0:44:49 attack
    0:44:49 Iran’s
    0:44:50 nuclear
    0:44:50 program
    0:44:50 because
    0:44:50 my
    0:44:51 own
    0:44:51 intelligence
    0:44:52 agency
    0:44:52 says
    0:44:53 they
    0:44:53 don’t
    0:44:53 have
    0:44:53 a
    0:44:53 military
    0:44:54 program
    0:44:55 so
    0:44:55 how
    0:44:55 am I
    0:44:55 supposed
    0:44:55 to
    0:44:56 start
    0:44:56 a war
    0:44:56 with
    0:44:56 them
    0:44:56 when
    0:44:57 my
    0:44:57 own
    0:44:57 intelligence
    0:44:58 agency
    0:44:58 say
    0:44:58 that
    0:44:59 this
    0:44:59 is
    0:44:59 what
    0:44:59 Donald
    0:44:59 Trump
    0:44:59 just
    0:45:00 did
    0:45:00 started
    0:45:00 anyway
    0:45:01 had
    0:45:01 his
    0:45:01 man
    0:45:02 Rubio
    0:45:02 say
    0:45:02 well
    0:45:02 screw
    0:45:02 the
    0:45:03 intelligence
    0:45:03 I
    0:45:03 don’t
    0:45:03 care
    0:45:03 what
    0:45:03 it
    0:45:03 says
    0:45:04 we
    0:45:04 can
    0:45:04 just
    0:45:04 do
    0:45:04 this
    0:45:04 if
    0:45:04 we
    0:45:05 want
    0:45:05 to
    0:45:05 so
    0:45:06 first
    0:45:06 let me
    0:45:06 say
    0:45:07 on the
    0:45:07 cover
    0:45:07 of
    0:45:07 enough
    0:45:07 already
    0:45:08 devastating
    0:45:09 Daniel
    0:45:10 Ellsberg
    0:45:10 outstanding
    0:45:11 Daniel
    0:45:11 L.
    0:45:11 Davis
    0:45:12 essential
    0:45:12 Ron
    0:45:12 Paul
    0:45:13 you are
    0:45:14 respected
    0:45:14 by a
    0:45:14 very large
    0:45:15 number
    0:45:15 of
    0:45:15 people
    0:45:15 you have
    0:45:16 decades
    0:45:16 of
    0:45:16 experience
    0:45:17 in this
    0:45:17 same
    0:45:17 thing
    0:45:17 with
    0:45:18 Mark
    0:45:19 extremely
    0:45:20 respected
    0:45:20 by a
    0:45:21 very large
    0:45:21 number
    0:45:21 of
    0:45:21 people
    0:45:22 experts
    0:45:22 there’s
    0:45:23 a lot
    0:45:23 of
    0:45:23 disagreements
    0:45:24 here
    0:45:24 and
    0:45:24 we’re
    0:45:25 going
    0:45:25 to
    0:45:25 unfortunately
    0:45:25 leave
    0:45:26 a lot
    0:45:26 of
    0:45:26 the
    0:45:26 disagreements
    0:45:27 on
    0:45:27 the
    0:45:27 table
    0:45:27 for
    0:45:28 the
    0:45:29 aforementioned
    0:45:30 nuclear
    0:45:30 scientists
    0:45:31 to
    0:45:32 deconstruct
    0:45:32 later
    0:45:33 so
    0:45:33 let’s
    0:45:33 not
    0:45:33 like
    0:45:34 try
    0:45:34 to
    0:45:34 every
    0:45:34 single
    0:45:35 claim
    0:45:35 does
    0:45:35 not
    0:45:35 have
    0:45:35 to
    0:45:35 be
    0:45:36 perfectly
    0:45:36 refuted
    0:45:36 let’s
    0:45:37 just
    0:45:37 leave
    0:45:37 it
    0:45:37 on
    0:45:37 the
    0:45:38 table
    0:45:38 the
    0:45:39 statements
    0:45:39 as
    0:45:39 they
    0:45:39 stand
    0:45:40 and
    0:45:40 let’s
    0:45:40 try
    0:45:41 to
    0:45:41 also
    0:45:42 find
    0:45:43 things
    0:45:43 we
    0:45:43 kind
    0:45:43 of
    0:45:43 agree
    0:45:44 on
    0:45:44 and
    0:45:45 try
    0:45:45 I know
    0:45:46 this
    0:45:46 might
    0:45:46 be
    0:45:46 difficult
    0:45:46 but
    0:45:46 to
    0:45:47 steal
    0:45:47 man
    0:45:47 the
    0:45:47 other
    0:45:48 side
    0:45:48 that’s
    0:45:48 the
    0:45:48 thing
    0:45:48 I
    0:45:48 would
    0:45:49 love
    0:45:49 to
    0:45:49 ask
    0:45:49 you
    0:45:51 maybe
    0:45:52 give
    0:45:52 Mark
    0:45:52 a chance
    0:45:53 to speak
    0:45:53 a little
    0:45:53 bit
    0:45:53 but
    0:45:54 to
    0:45:55 try
    0:45:55 to
    0:45:55 for
    0:45:55 both
    0:45:55 of
    0:45:56 you
    0:45:56 to
    0:45:56 try
    0:45:56 to
    0:45:56 steal
    0:45:56 man
    0:45:57 the
    0:45:57 other
    0:45:57 side
    0:45:57 so
    0:45:58 people
    0:45:58 who
    0:45:58 are
    0:45:59 concerned
    0:45:59 about
    0:46:01 Iran
    0:46:01 developing
    0:46:01 a nuclear
    0:46:02 program
    0:46:02 can you
    0:46:02 steal
    0:46:03 man
    0:46:03 that
    0:46:03 case
    0:46:03 and
    0:46:03 the
    0:46:04 same
    0:46:04 I
    0:46:05 think
    0:46:05 I did
    0:46:05 in my
    0:46:05 opening
    0:46:06 statement
    0:46:06 quite
    0:46:06 frankly
    0:46:06 I
    0:46:07 don’t
    0:46:07 carry
    0:46:08 any
    0:46:08 brief
    0:46:08 for
    0:46:09 the
    0:46:09 Ayatollah
    0:46:10 I’m
    0:46:10 a
    0:46:10 Texan
    0:46:11 I don’t
    0:46:11 give a
    0:46:11 damn
    0:46:11 about
    0:46:12 what
    0:46:12 some
    0:46:12 Shiite
    0:46:13 theocrat
    0:46:13 says
    0:46:13 about
    0:46:14 nothing
    0:46:14 right
    0:46:14 my
    0:46:15 interest
    0:46:15 is
    0:46:15 the
    0:46:16 people
    0:46:16 of
    0:46:16 this
    0:46:16 country
    0:46:17 and
    0:46:17 its
    0:46:18 future
    0:46:18 and
    0:46:19 what’s
    0:46:19 true
    0:46:20 and
    0:46:20 so
    0:46:20 I
    0:46:20 don’t
    0:46:21 mind
    0:46:21 telling
    0:46:21 you
    0:46:22 even
    0:46:22 though
    0:46:22 the
    0:46:23 Iranians
    0:46:23 never
    0:46:23 said
    0:46:23 we’re
    0:46:24 building
    0:46:24 a
    0:46:24 latent
    0:46:25 nuclear
    0:46:25 weapons
    0:46:26 capability
    0:46:26 that’s
    0:46:26 clearly
    0:46:27 what
    0:46:27 they’re
    0:46:27 doing
    0:46:28 is
    0:46:28 showing
    0:46:29 that
    0:46:29 they
    0:46:29 can
    0:46:30 make
    0:46:30 a
    0:46:30 nuke
    0:46:30 so
    0:46:31 don’t
    0:46:31 make
    0:46:31 me
    0:46:32 make
    0:46:32 a
    0:46:32 nuke
    0:46:32 that
    0:46:33 has
    0:46:33 been
    0:46:33 their
    0:46:33 position
    0:46:34 their
    0:46:34 position
    0:46:34 has
    0:46:34 not
    0:46:34 been
    0:46:35 I’m
    0:46:35 making
    0:46:35 a
    0:46:35 nuke
    0:46:36 so
    0:46:36 I
    0:46:36 can
    0:46:36 wipe
    0:46:37 Israel
    0:46:37 off
    0:46:37 the
    0:46:37 map
    0:46:38 their
    0:46:38 position
    0:46:38 has
    0:46:39 been
    0:46:39 look
    0:46:39 if
    0:46:39 you
    0:46:40 guys
    0:46:40 don’t
    0:46:40 attack
    0:46:41 us
    0:46:41 we
    0:46:41 could
    0:46:41 just
    0:46:42 keep
    0:46:42 this
    0:46:42 civilian
    0:46:43 program
    0:46:43 the
    0:46:44 way
    0:46:44 it
    0:46:44 is
    0:46:44 and
    0:46:45 again
    0:46:45 there’s
    0:46:46 always
    0:46:46 the
    0:46:47 implication
    0:46:47 that
    0:46:47 they’re
    0:46:48 just
    0:46:48 building
    0:46:48 up
    0:46:48 this
    0:46:49 uranium
    0:46:49 stockpile
    0:46:49 but
    0:46:50 no
    0:46:50 they’re
    0:46:50 not
    0:46:50 that
    0:46:50 was
    0:46:50 in
    0:46:51 reaction
    0:46:51 to
    0:46:51 one
    0:46:52 Donald
    0:46:52 Trump
    0:46:53 leaving
    0:46:53 the
    0:46:53 deal
    0:46:53 in
    0:46:54 2018
    0:46:54 to
    0:46:55 the
    0:46:55 assassination
    0:46:56 in
    0:46:56 December
    0:46:56 2020
    0:46:57 of
    0:46:57 the
    0:46:57 Iranian
    0:46:58 nuclear
    0:46:59 scientist
    0:47:01 and
    0:47:01 then
    0:47:01 in
    0:47:01 April
    0:47:02 of
    0:47:02 21
    0:47:03 the
    0:47:04 sabotage
    0:47:04 at
    0:47:05 Natanz
    0:47:05 and
    0:47:05 there’s
    0:47:05 a
    0:47:05 Reuters
    0:47:06 story
    0:47:06 that
    0:47:06 says
    0:47:07 right
    0:47:07 after
    0:47:07 they
    0:47:08 sabotage
    0:47:08 Natanz
    0:47:09 that’s
    0:47:09 when
    0:47:09 the
    0:47:10 Ayatollah
    0:47:10 decided
    0:47:11 let’s
    0:47:11 enrich
    0:47:11 up
    0:47:11 to
    0:47:12 60%
    0:47:12 which
    0:47:13 why
    0:47:13 stop
    0:47:14 30%
    0:47:15 short
    0:47:15 of
    0:47:16 90%
    0:47:16 235
    0:47:17 it’s
    0:47:18 because
    0:47:18 they’re
    0:47:18 not
    0:47:19 even
    0:47:19 making
    0:47:19 a
    0:47:19 threat
    0:47:20 they’re
    0:47:20 built
    0:47:21 they’re
    0:47:21 making
    0:47:21 like
    0:47:21 the
    0:47:22 most
    0:47:22 latent
    0:47:23 threat
    0:47:23 a
    0:47:23 bargaining
    0:47:24 chip
    0:47:24 to
    0:47:25 negotiate
    0:47:26 away
    0:47:26 they’re
    0:47:26 trying
    0:47:26 to
    0:47:26 put
    0:47:27 pressure
    0:47:27 on
    0:47:27 the
    0:47:27 United
    0:47:27 States
    0:47:27 to
    0:47:28 come
    0:47:28 back
    0:47:28 to
    0:47:28 the
    0:47:29 table
    0:47:29 that’s
    0:47:29 not
    0:47:30 the
    0:47:30 same
    0:47:30 as
    0:47:30 racing
    0:47:30 to
    0:47:31 the
    0:47:31 bomb
    0:47:32 that’s
    0:47:32 why
    0:47:32 Marco
    0:47:32 Rubio
    0:47:33 says
    0:47:33 never
    0:47:33 mind
    0:47:34 the
    0:47:34 intelligence
    0:47:34 because
    0:47:35 the
    0:47:35 intelligence
    0:47:35 says
    0:47:36 what
    0:47:36 I
    0:47:56 got
    0:47:56 got
    0:47:56 to
    0:47:56 get
    0:47:57 into
    0:47:57 the
    0:47:57 details
    0:47:57 of
    0:47:57 this
    0:47:58 stuff
    0:47:58 details
    0:47:59 100%
    0:47:59 but
    0:48:00 I
    0:48:00 like
    0:48:00 the
    0:48:01 tension
    0:48:01 between
    0:48:02 two
    0:48:03 people
    0:48:03 with
    0:48:04 different
    0:48:04 perspectives
    0:48:05 exploring
    0:48:05 those
    0:48:05 details
    0:48:06 and
    0:48:06 the
    0:48:07 more
    0:48:07 we
    0:48:07 can
    0:48:07 go
    0:48:07 back
    0:48:07 and
    0:48:08 forth
    0:48:08 the
    0:48:08 better
    0:48:09 and
    0:48:09 there’s
    0:48:09 a lot
    0:48:09 of
    0:48:09 disagreement
    0:48:10 on the
    0:48:10 table
    0:48:10 I
    0:48:10 personally
    0:48:11 enjoy
    0:48:11 learning
    0:48:12 from
    0:48:12 the
    0:48:12 disagreement
    0:48:12 that
    0:48:13 was
    0:48:13 a
    0:48:13 long
    0:48:14 list
    0:48:14 of
    0:48:14 claims
    0:48:14 no
    0:48:15 ?
    0:48:26 I
    0:48:26 like
    0:48:27 the
    0:48:27 tension
    0:48:27 of
    0:48:27 the
    0:48:27 debate
    0:48:28 of
    0:48:28 back
    0:48:28 and
    0:48:28 forth
    0:48:28 that’s
    0:48:29 all
    0:48:29 Mark
    0:48:29 do
    0:48:29 you
    0:48:30 want
    0:48:30 to
    0:48:31 comment
    0:48:31 on
    0:48:31 stuff
    0:48:32 a
    0:48:32 little
    0:48:32 bit
    0:48:32 here
    0:48:32 which
    0:48:33 would
    0:48:33 pick
    0:48:34 whichever
    0:48:34 topic
    0:48:34 you
    0:48:34 want
    0:48:34 to
    0:48:35 go
    0:48:35 with
    0:48:35 here
    0:48:35 yeah
    0:48:35 there’s
    0:48:36 a lot
    0:48:36 there
    0:48:36 so
    0:48:37 just
    0:48:37 a
    0:48:37 couple
    0:48:38 things
    0:48:38 I
    0:48:38 think
    0:48:38 that
    0:48:38 are
    0:48:38 worth
    0:48:39 your
    0:48:39 viewers
    0:48:39 knowing
    0:48:40 because
    0:48:40 Scott’s
    0:48:41 right
    0:48:41 I
    0:48:41 mean
    0:48:41 the
    0:48:41 nuclear
    0:48:41 physics
    0:48:42 is
    0:48:42 complicated
    0:48:42 and
    0:48:43 it’s
    0:48:43 also
    0:48:44 important
    0:48:45 so
    0:48:45 the
    0:48:45 Iranians
    0:48:45 have
    0:48:47 assembled
    0:48:48 about
    0:48:49 15 to
    0:48:49 17
    0:48:50 bombs
    0:48:50 worth
    0:48:51 of
    0:48:51 60%
    0:48:52 enriched
    0:48:52 uranium
    0:48:52 and
    0:48:52 I
    0:48:52 think
    0:48:53 it’s
    0:48:53 always
    0:48:53 important
    0:48:53 for
    0:48:54 your
    0:48:54 listeners
    0:48:55 to
    0:48:55 understand
    0:48:55 what
    0:48:55 does
    0:48:55 this
    0:48:56 all
    0:48:56 mean
    0:48:56 enriched
    0:48:57 to
    0:48:58 3.67%
    0:48:58 to
    0:48:59 20%
    0:49:00 to
    0:49:00 60%
    0:49:01 and
    0:49:01 then
    0:49:01 to
    0:49:01 90%
    0:49:02 weapons
    0:49:02 grade
    0:49:02 uranium
    0:49:03 what
    0:49:03 does
    0:49:03 this
    0:49:04 process
    0:49:04 mean
    0:49:06 first
    0:49:06 of
    0:49:06 obviously
    0:49:06 enriched
    0:49:07 uranium
    0:49:07 is
    0:49:07 a
    0:49:07 key
    0:49:08 capability
    0:49:08 to
    0:49:09 develop
    0:49:09 a
    0:49:09 nuclear
    0:49:09 weapon
    0:49:10 it
    0:49:10 can
    0:49:10 also
    0:49:10 be
    0:49:10 used
    0:49:11 for
    0:49:11 other
    0:49:11 purposes
    0:49:12 civilian
    0:49:13 purposes
    0:49:13 and
    0:49:14 research
    0:49:14 purposes
    0:49:15 you
    0:49:15 can
    0:49:15 use
    0:49:15 it
    0:49:15 to
    0:49:16 power
    0:49:16 nuclear
    0:49:16 submarine
    0:49:17 so
    0:49:17 let’s
    0:49:17 just
    0:49:18 if
    0:49:18 you
    0:49:18 don’t
    0:49:18 mind
    0:49:18 if
    0:49:19 I
    0:49:19 could
    0:49:19 just
    0:49:19 break
    0:49:19 it
    0:49:19 down
    0:49:20 yeah
    0:49:21 just
    0:49:21 I
    0:49:22 think
    0:49:22 it’s
    0:49:22 again
    0:49:22 important
    0:49:22 just
    0:49:23 to
    0:49:23 understand
    0:49:23 the
    0:49:23 sort
    0:49:24 of
    0:49:24 basics
    0:49:24 before
    0:49:25 we
    0:49:25 jump
    0:49:25 into
    0:49:25 the
    0:49:26 allegations
    0:49:26 and
    0:49:27 claims
    0:49:27 and
    0:49:27 counter
    0:49:28 claims
    0:49:28 so
    0:49:29 if
    0:49:29 you’re
    0:49:29 going
    0:49:29 to
    0:49:29 enrich
    0:49:29 to
    0:49:31 3.67%
    0:49:31 enrich
    0:49:32 uranium
    0:49:33 that’s
    0:49:33 for
    0:49:34 civilian
    0:49:34 nuclear
    0:49:35 power
    0:49:35 right
    0:49:36 but
    0:49:36 when
    0:49:36 you
    0:49:36 do
    0:49:37 that
    0:49:37 you
    0:49:37 basically
    0:49:38 70%
    0:49:38 of
    0:49:38 what
    0:49:38 you
    0:49:39 need
    0:49:39 to
    0:49:39 get
    0:49:39 to
    0:49:39 weapons
    0:49:40 grade
    0:49:40 right
    0:49:40 so
    0:49:41 you’ve
    0:49:41 done
    0:49:41 all
    0:49:41 the
    0:49:42 steps
    0:49:43 70%
    0:49:43 of
    0:49:43 the
    0:49:43 steps
    0:49:43 in
    0:49:44 order
    0:49:44 to
    0:49:44 get
    0:49:44 to
    0:49:45 weapons
    0:49:45 grade
    0:49:46 uranium
    0:49:47 if
    0:49:47 you
    0:49:47 enrich
    0:49:47 to
    0:49:48 20%
    0:49:49 you
    0:49:49 are
    0:49:50 now
    0:49:50 at
    0:49:51 90%
    0:49:52 of
    0:49:52 what
    0:49:52 you
    0:49:52 need
    0:49:52 to
    0:49:52 get
    0:49:53 to
    0:49:53 weapons
    0:49:53 grade
    0:49:53 uranium
    0:49:54 now
    0:49:54 why
    0:49:54 would
    0:49:54 you
    0:49:54 need
    0:49:55 20%
    0:49:56 you
    0:49:56 may
    0:49:56 need
    0:49:56 it
    0:49:56 for
    0:49:57 something
    0:49:57 like
    0:49:57 a
    0:49:58 research
    0:49:58 reactor
    0:49:59 right
    0:49:59 and
    0:49:59 so
    0:50:01 Iran
    0:50:01 has
    0:50:01 correct
    0:50:02 Iran
    0:50:02 has
    0:50:03 a
    0:50:03 Tehran
    0:50:04 research
    0:50:04 reactor
    0:50:04 for
    0:50:05 medical
    0:50:05 isotopes
    0:50:05 now
    0:50:05 you
    0:50:06 can
    0:50:06 buy
    0:50:07 those
    0:50:07 isotopes
    0:50:08 from
    0:50:08 abroad
    0:50:09 or
    0:50:09 you
    0:50:09 can
    0:50:10 produce
    0:50:10 them
    0:50:10 at
    0:50:10 home
    0:50:11 if
    0:50:11 you
    0:50:11 going
    0:50:11 to
    0:50:12 enrich
    0:50:16 what
    0:50:16 you
    0:50:16 need
    0:50:16 to
    0:50:16 get
    0:50:17 to
    0:50:17 weapons
    0:50:17 grade
    0:50:17 uranium
    0:50:18 and
    0:50:18 then
    0:50:19 90%
    0:50:20 is
    0:50:20 quote
    0:50:20 weapons
    0:50:21 grade
    0:50:21 uranium
    0:50:21 by
    0:50:21 the way
    0:50:21 you
    0:50:21 can
    0:50:22 use
    0:50:22 60%
    0:50:23 to
    0:50:23 actually
    0:50:24 deliver
    0:50:24 a
    0:50:24 crude
    0:50:24 nuclear
    0:50:25 device
    0:50:26 that
    0:50:26 has
    0:50:27 been
    0:50:27 done
    0:50:27 in
    0:50:27 the
    0:50:27 past
    0:50:28 but
    0:50:28 you
    0:50:28 want
    0:50:28 to
    0:50:28 get
    0:50:28 to
    0:50:29 quote
    0:50:30 90%
    0:50:31 that’s
    0:50:32 weapons
    0:50:32 grade
    0:50:32 uranium
    0:50:33 as
    0:50:33 Scott’s
    0:50:34 defining
    0:50:34 it
    0:50:34 but
    0:50:34 just
    0:50:34 again
    0:50:34 to
    0:50:35 clarify
    0:50:36 these
    0:50:36 huge
    0:50:37 stockpiles
    0:50:37 of
    0:50:38 60%
    0:50:38 that
    0:50:38 Iran
    0:50:38 has
    0:50:39 accumulated
    0:50:40 this
    0:50:41 16-17
    0:50:42 bombs
    0:50:42 worth
    0:50:42 of
    0:50:43 60%
    0:50:43 is
    0:50:44 99%
    0:50:45 of
    0:50:45 what
    0:50:45 they
    0:50:45 need
    0:50:45 for
    0:50:45 weapons
    0:50:46 grade
    0:50:46 so
    0:50:46 I
    0:50:46 just
    0:50:46 wanted
    0:50:47 to
    0:50:47 explain
    0:50:47 that
    0:50:48 yeah
    0:50:48 but
    0:50:48 when you
    0:50:49 say
    0:50:49 you’re
    0:50:49 saying
    0:50:50 if
    0:50:50 you
    0:50:50 include
    0:50:51 the
    0:50:51 mining
    0:50:52 the
    0:50:52 refining
    0:50:52 of
    0:50:52 the
    0:50:53 ore
    0:50:53 into
    0:50:53 yellow
    0:50:53 cake
    0:50:53 the
    0:50:54 transformation
    0:50:54 of
    0:50:55 that
    0:50:55 into
    0:50:55 uranium
    0:50:56 hexafluoride
    0:50:56 gas
    0:50:57 the
    0:50:57 driving
    0:50:58 of it
    0:50:58 in
    0:50:58 a
    0:50:58 truck
    0:50:58 over
    0:50:59 to
    0:50:59 the
    0:51:00 centrifuge
    0:51:00 and
    0:51:01 then
    0:51:01 spinning
    0:51:02 it
    0:51:02 this
    0:51:03 is
    0:51:03 where
    0:51:03 we
    0:51:03 get
    0:51:03 this
    0:51:04 90%
    0:51:04 number
    0:51:05 from
    0:51:05 right
    0:51:06 in
    0:51:07 place
    0:51:07 of
    0:51:08 90%
    0:51:08 enriched
    0:51:09 uranium
    0:51:09 or
    0:51:11 80%
    0:51:11 enriched
    0:51:11 uranium
    0:51:12 it’s
    0:51:12 90%
    0:51:13 of the
    0:51:13 way
    0:51:13 on
    0:51:14 some
    0:51:14 chart
    0:51:14 that
    0:51:15 includes
    0:51:16 picking
    0:51:16 up a
    0:51:16 shovel
    0:51:17 and
    0:51:17 beginning
    0:51:17 to
    0:51:18 mine
    0:51:18 right
    0:51:19 again
    0:51:19 just to
    0:51:19 clarify
    0:51:20 I
    0:51:20 just
    0:51:20 think
    0:51:20 it’s
    0:51:20 important
    0:51:20 to
    0:51:21 understand
    0:51:21 the
    0:51:21 definition
    0:51:22 of
    0:51:22 terms
    0:51:23 to
    0:51:23 get
    0:51:24 once
    0:51:24 you
    0:51:24 have
    0:51:25 60%
    0:51:25 enriched
    0:51:26 uranium
    0:51:26 you’ve
    0:51:26 done
    0:51:27 99%
    0:51:27 of
    0:51:27 all
    0:51:27 the
    0:51:28 steps
    0:51:28 including
    0:51:28 some
    0:51:28 of
    0:51:28 the
    0:51:29 steps
    0:51:29 that
    0:51:29 Scott’s
    0:51:29 talking
    0:51:30 about
    0:51:30 you’ve
    0:51:30 done
    0:51:35 well
    0:51:36 as
    0:51:36 I’ve
    0:51:36 already
    0:51:37 established
    0:51:37 numerous
    0:51:38 times
    0:51:38 here
    0:51:38 under
    0:51:39 the
    0:51:39 JCPOA
    0:51:40 they
    0:51:40 shipped
    0:51:40 out
    0:51:40 every
    0:51:41 bit
    0:51:41 of
    0:51:41 their
    0:51:42 enriched
    0:51:42 uranium
    0:51:43 stockpile
    0:51:43 the
    0:51:43 French
    0:51:44 turned
    0:51:44 it
    0:51:44 into
    0:51:44 fuel
    0:51:45 rods
    0:51:45 and
    0:51:45 then
    0:51:45 shipped
    0:51:46 it
    0:51:46 back
    0:51:46 that’s
    0:51:47 the
    0:51:47 deal
    0:51:47 they’re
    0:51:47 trying
    0:51:47 to
    0:51:47 get
    0:51:48 the
    0:51:48 U.S.
    0:51:48 back
    0:51:49 into
    0:51:49 and
    0:51:50 were
    0:51:50 obviously
    0:51:51 clearly
    0:51:51 willing
    0:51:51 to
    0:51:51 do
    0:51:52 and
    0:51:52 again
    0:51:52 the
    0:51:52 only
    0:51:53 reason
    0:51:53 they’re
    0:51:53 enriching
    0:51:53 up
    0:51:53 to
    0:51:54 60%
    0:51:54 was
    0:51:54 to
    0:51:55 put
    0:51:55 the
    0:51:55 pressure
    0:51:55 on
    0:51:55 the
    0:51:56 Americans
    0:51:56 to
    0:51:57 go
    0:51:57 ahead
    0:51:57 and
    0:51:57 get
    0:51:57 back
    0:51:58 into
    0:51:58 the
    0:51:58 deal
    0:51:59 and
    0:51:59 bad
    0:51:59 bet
    0:52:00 it
    0:52:00 gave
    0:52:00 them
    0:52:00 an
    0:52:01 excuse
    0:52:01 to
    0:52:01 bomb
    0:52:01 based
    0:52:02 on
    0:52:02 the
    0:52:02 idea
    0:52:02 that
    0:52:02 people
    0:52:02 are
    0:52:02 going
    0:52:02 to
    0:52:03 listen
    0:52:03 to
    0:52:03 him
    0:52:04 pretend
    0:52:04 that
    0:52:04 somehow
    0:52:04 that’s
    0:52:05 99%
    0:52:06 of the
    0:52:06 way
    0:52:06 to
    0:52:26 they’re
    0:52:26 very
    0:52:27 close
    0:52:27 to
    0:52:28 weapons
    0:52:28 grade
    0:52:29 it’s
    0:52:30 1%
    0:52:30 more
    0:52:30 that
    0:52:30 they
    0:52:30 need
    0:52:30 to
    0:52:31 do
    0:52:31 to
    0:52:31 enrich
    0:52:31 to
    0:52:31 weapons
    0:52:32 grade
    0:52:32 the
    0:52:33 second
    0:52:33 aspect
    0:52:33 of
    0:52:33 a
    0:52:34 deliverable
    0:52:34 nuclear
    0:52:34 weapon
    0:52:35 is
    0:52:35 obviously
    0:52:36 the
    0:52:36 delivery
    0:52:36 vehicle
    0:52:37 and
    0:52:37 those
    0:52:37 are
    0:52:37 the
    0:52:37 missiles
    0:52:38 and
    0:52:39 according
    0:52:40 to
    0:52:40 the
    0:52:40 DNI
    0:52:40 and
    0:52:41 other
    0:52:42 incredible
    0:52:42 sources
    0:52:43 Iran
    0:52:43 has
    0:52:43 got
    0:52:43 the
    0:52:44 largest
    0:52:45 missile
    0:52:45 inventory
    0:52:46 in
    0:52:46 the
    0:52:46 Middle
    0:52:46 East
    0:52:48 3,000
    0:52:48 missiles
    0:52:49 before
    0:52:49 the
    0:52:49 war
    0:52:49 began
    0:52:51 and
    0:52:51 at
    0:52:52 least
    0:52:52 the
    0:52:52 ballistic
    0:52:53 missiles
    0:52:54 2,000
    0:52:54 capable
    0:52:54 of
    0:52:55 reaching
    0:52:55 Israel
    0:52:56 so
    0:52:56 there’s
    0:52:56 no doubt
    0:52:56 that
    0:52:57 Iran
    0:52:57 has
    0:52:57 the
    0:52:57 ability
    0:52:58 once
    0:52:58 they
    0:52:58 have
    0:52:59 the
    0:52:59 weapons
    0:52:59 grade
    0:53:00 uranium
    0:53:00 and
    0:53:00 the
    0:53:01 warhead
    0:53:01 to
    0:53:01 fix
    0:53:02 that
    0:53:02 to
    0:53:02 a
    0:53:02 missile
    0:53:02 and
    0:53:03 deliver
    0:53:03 that
    0:53:04 certainly
    0:53:04 to
    0:53:04 hit
    0:53:05 Israel
    0:53:05 hit
    0:53:05 our
    0:53:06 Gulf
    0:53:06 neighbors
    0:53:07 hit
    0:53:07 southern
    0:53:07 Europe
    0:53:08 they
    0:53:08 also
    0:53:09 have
    0:53:09 a
    0:53:10 active
    0:53:10 intercontinental
    0:53:11 ballistic
    0:53:11 missile
    0:53:12 program
    0:53:12 an
    0:53:13 ICBM
    0:53:13 program
    0:53:14 which
    0:53:15 ultimately
    0:53:15 is
    0:53:16 designed
    0:53:16 not
    0:53:16 to
    0:53:16 hit
    0:53:16 the
    0:53:17 Israelis
    0:53:17 or
    0:53:17 the
    0:53:18 Gulf
    0:53:18 but
    0:53:19 to
    0:53:19 hit
    0:53:20 deeper
    0:53:20 into
    0:53:21 Europe
    0:53:21 and
    0:53:21 ultimately
    0:53:22 to
    0:53:22 target
    0:53:22 the
    0:53:22 United
    0:53:23 States
    0:53:23 so
    0:53:24 let’s
    0:53:24 just
    0:53:24 understand
    0:53:24 the
    0:53:25 missile
    0:53:25 program
    0:53:25 I think
    0:53:26 it’s
    0:53:26 an
    0:53:26 important
    0:53:26 part
    0:53:26 of it
    0:53:27 the
    0:53:27 third
    0:53:27 leg
    0:53:28 of the
    0:53:28 stool
    0:53:28 and
    0:53:28 Scott
    0:53:29 has
    0:53:29 already
    0:53:29 alluded
    0:53:30 to
    0:53:30 this
    0:53:30 and
    0:53:30 we’ve
    0:53:30 had
    0:53:30 some
    0:53:31 debate
    0:53:31 on
    0:53:31 this
    0:53:31 and
    0:53:31 I
    0:53:31 think
    0:53:31 we
    0:53:31 should
    0:53:32 talk
    0:53:32 about
    0:53:32 it
    0:53:33 what
    0:53:34 you’ve
    0:53:34 got
    0:53:34 to
    0:53:34 develop
    0:53:35 a
    0:53:35 warhead
    0:53:36 or
    0:53:37 crude
    0:53:37 nuclear
    0:53:38 device
    0:53:38 and
    0:53:39 according
    0:53:39 to
    0:53:40 estimates
    0:53:41 from
    0:53:41 both
    0:53:41 US
    0:53:42 government
    0:53:42 sources
    0:53:43 and
    0:53:44 nuclear
    0:53:45 experts
    0:53:45 it
    0:53:45 would
    0:53:46 take
    0:53:46 about
    0:53:46 four
    0:53:46 to
    0:53:47 six
    0:53:47 months
    0:53:47 for
    0:53:47 Iran
    0:53:47 to
    0:53:48 develop
    0:53:48 a
    0:53:48 crude
    0:53:48 nuclear
    0:53:49 device
    0:53:50 this
    0:53:50 is
    0:53:50 something
    0:53:50 that
    0:53:51 you
    0:53:51 wouldn’t
    0:53:51 use
    0:53:51 a
    0:53:51 missile
    0:53:52 to
    0:53:52 deliver
    0:53:52 but
    0:53:52 you
    0:53:52 would
    0:53:53 use
    0:53:53 a
    0:53:53 plane
    0:53:53 or
    0:53:53 a
    0:53:54 ship
    0:53:55 and
    0:53:55 it
    0:53:55 would
    0:53:55 take
    0:53:56 somewhere
    0:53:56 in
    0:53:56 the
    0:53:56 neighborhood
    0:53:57 of
    0:53:57 about
    0:53:57 a
    0:53:57 year
    0:53:57 and a
    0:54:02 fixed
    0:54:02 to
    0:54:02 the
    0:54:03 missile
    0:54:03 so
    0:54:03 the
    0:54:04 three
    0:54:04 legs
    0:54:04 of
    0:54:04 the
    0:54:04 nuclear
    0:54:05 stool
    0:54:05 right
    0:54:05 the
    0:54:07 weapons
    0:54:07 grade
    0:54:07 uranium
    0:54:08 the
    0:54:09 missiles
    0:54:09 to
    0:54:10 deliver
    0:54:10 it
    0:54:11 and
    0:54:12 the
    0:54:12 and
    0:54:13 the
    0:54:13 warhead
    0:54:13 so
    0:54:13 I
    0:54:13 just
    0:54:14 want
    0:54:14 to
    0:54:14 sort
    0:54:14 of
    0:54:14 define
    0:54:15 terms
    0:54:15 so
    0:54:15 that
    0:54:15 when
    0:54:15 we’re
    0:54:16 having
    0:54:16 this
    0:54:16 big
    0:54:16 debate
    0:54:17 your
    0:54:17 listeners
    0:54:18 kind
    0:54:18 of
    0:54:18 understand
    0:54:19 what
    0:54:19 we’re
    0:54:19 talking
    0:54:19 about
    0:54:19 if
    0:54:19 I
    0:54:20 can
    0:54:20 jump
    0:54:20 in
    0:54:20 here
    0:54:20 on
    0:54:20 this
    0:54:21 point
    0:54:21 too
    0:54:21 and
    0:54:21 I’ll
    0:54:21 turn
    0:54:21 it
    0:54:21 back
    0:54:21 over
    0:54:22 to
    0:54:22 you
    0:54:22 but
    0:54:45 a
    0:54:46 I
    0:54:46 only
    0:54:46 just
    0:54:46 found
    0:54:47 out
    0:54:47 that
    0:54:47 he
    0:54:47 died
    0:54:47 two
    0:54:48 years
    0:54:48 ago
    0:54:49 unfortunately
    0:54:49 he used
    0:54:49 to
    0:54:49 write
    0:54:50 for
    0:54:50 us
    0:54:50 at
    0:54:50 anti
    0:54:50 war
    0:54:51 commons
    0:54:51 a
    0:54:51 brilliant
    0:54:52 nuclear
    0:54:52 physicist
    0:54:53 and
    0:54:53 h-bomb
    0:54:54 developer
    0:54:55 and he
    0:54:55 really
    0:54:56 taught me
    0:54:56 all about
    0:54:56 this
    0:54:57 stuff
    0:54:57 and
    0:54:59 so
    0:55:00 I’m
    0:55:00 not
    0:55:00 correcting
    0:55:01 anything
    0:55:01 you said
    0:55:02 what he
    0:55:02 said
    0:55:02 essentially
    0:55:02 is
    0:55:03 right
    0:55:03 maybe
    0:55:03 add a
    0:55:03 little
    0:55:04 more
    0:55:04 detail
    0:55:05 the
    0:55:05 easiest
    0:55:06 kind
    0:55:06 of
    0:55:06 nuke
    0:55:06 to
    0:55:06 make
    0:55:06 out
    0:55:07 of
    0:55:07 uranium
    0:55:07 is
    0:55:07 a
    0:55:07 simple
    0:55:08 gun
    0:55:08 type
    0:55:08 nuke
    0:55:09 like
    0:55:09 they
    0:55:09 dropped
    0:55:09 on
    0:55:10 Hiroshima
    0:55:10 as
    0:55:10 little
    0:55:11 boy
    0:55:11 it’s
    0:55:11 essentially
    0:55:11 a
    0:55:12 shotgun
    0:55:13 firing
    0:55:14 a
    0:55:14 uranium
    0:55:15 slug
    0:55:15 into
    0:55:15 a
    0:55:16 uranium
    0:55:16 target
    0:55:17 and
    0:55:17 that’s
    0:55:17 enough
    0:55:17 they
    0:55:17 didn’t
    0:55:17 even
    0:55:18 test
    0:55:18 it
    0:55:18 they
    0:55:18 knew
    0:55:18 it
    0:55:19 worked
    0:55:19 so
    0:55:20 easy
    0:55:20 to
    0:55:20 do
    0:55:20 to
    0:55:21 do
    0:55:21 the
    0:55:21 Hiroshima
    0:55:21 bomb
    0:55:22 the
    0:55:22 Nagasaki
    0:55:23 bomb
    0:55:23 was
    0:55:24 plutonium
    0:55:24 implosion
    0:55:25 bomb
    0:55:25 it’s
    0:55:26 virtually
    0:55:26 always
    0:55:27 plutonium
    0:55:27 that’s
    0:55:28 used
    0:55:28 in
    0:55:29 implosion
    0:55:29 bombs
    0:55:31 and
    0:55:33 in
    0:55:34 miniaturized
    0:55:34 nuclear
    0:55:34 warheads
    0:55:35 that can
    0:55:35 be
    0:55:35 married
    0:55:36 to
    0:55:36 missiles
    0:55:37 as opposed
    0:55:38 to a
    0:55:38 bomb
    0:55:38 you can
    0:55:38 drop out
    0:55:39 of the
    0:55:39 belly
    0:55:39 of a
    0:55:39 plane
    0:55:40 so
    0:55:41 gun
    0:55:41 type
    0:55:41 nuke
    0:55:42 you
    0:55:42 can’t
    0:55:42 put
    0:55:42 that
    0:55:42 on
    0:55:43 a
    0:55:43 missile
    0:55:44 that
    0:55:44 is
    0:55:44 by far
    0:55:44 the
    0:55:45 easiest
    0:55:45 kind
    0:55:45 of
    0:55:46 nuclear
    0:55:46 weapon
    0:55:46 for
    0:55:47 Iran
    0:55:47 to
    0:55:47 make
    0:55:47 if
    0:55:47 they
    0:55:48 broke
    0:55:48 out
    0:55:48 and
    0:55:48 made
    0:55:49 one
    0:55:49 right
    0:55:50 but
    0:55:50 it
    0:55:50 would
    0:55:50 be
    0:55:51 useless
    0:55:51 to
    0:55:51 them
    0:55:52 drive
    0:55:52 it
    0:55:52 to
    0:55:53 Israel
    0:55:53 in
    0:55:53 a
    0:55:53 flatbed
    0:55:53 truck
    0:55:54 they
    0:55:55 got
    0:55:55 no
    0:55:55 way
    0:55:55 to
    0:55:56 deliver
    0:55:56 that
    0:55:56 they
    0:55:56 could
    0:55:58 test
    0:55:58 it
    0:55:58 in
    0:55:58 the
    0:55:59 desert
    0:55:59 and
    0:55:59 beat
    0:55:59 their
    0:55:59 chest
    0:56:00 but
    0:56:00 essentially
    0:56:00 that’s
    0:56:01 all
    0:56:01 they
    0:56:01 do
    0:56:02 like
    0:56:02 we
    0:56:03 did
    0:56:03 as
    0:56:03 Scott
    0:56:04 said
    0:56:04 with
    0:56:05 Hiroshima
    0:56:06 Nagasaki
    0:56:08 very
    0:56:08 slim
    0:56:08 chance
    0:56:09 of
    0:56:09 Iranian
    0:56:09 heavy
    0:56:10 bombers
    0:56:10 getting
    0:56:10 through
    0:56:11 Israeli
    0:56:11 airspace
    0:56:12 but
    0:56:12 anyway
    0:56:13 to
    0:56:14 make
    0:56:14 an
    0:56:14 implosion
    0:56:15 bomb
    0:56:15 they
    0:56:16 would
    0:56:16 have
    0:56:17 to
    0:56:17 do
    0:56:18 years
    0:56:18 worth
    0:56:18 of
    0:56:18 experiments
    0:56:18 unless
    0:56:19 the
    0:56:19 Chinese
    0:56:19 or the
    0:56:19 Russians
    0:56:20 gave
    0:56:20 them
    0:56:20 the
    0:56:21 software
    0:56:21 or
    0:56:21 gave
    0:56:22 them
    0:56:22 the
    0:56:22 finished
    0:56:22 blueprints
    0:56:23 or
    0:56:23 something
    0:56:23 which
    0:56:23 is
    0:56:23 no
    0:56:24 indication
    0:56:24 of
    0:56:24 that
    0:56:24 whatsoever
    0:56:25 the
    0:56:25 only
    0:56:25 people
    0:56:25 gave
    0:56:25 them
    0:56:26 blueprints
    0:56:26 for a
    0:56:26 nuclear
    0:56:26 bomb
    0:56:27 was
    0:56:32 blueprints
    0:56:32 but
    0:56:33 the
    0:56:33 Iranians
    0:56:34 didn’t
    0:56:34 take
    0:56:34 the
    0:56:34 bait
    0:56:34 the
    0:56:35 blueprints
    0:56:35 were
    0:56:35 given
    0:56:36 just
    0:56:36 to
    0:56:36 clarify
    0:56:36 it’s
    0:56:37 just
    0:56:37 interesting
    0:56:37 just
    0:56:37 in
    0:56:38 terms
    0:56:38 of
    0:56:38 the
    0:56:38 history
    0:56:38 of
    0:56:39 proliferation
    0:56:41 so
    0:56:42 Iran’s
    0:56:42 initial
    0:56:43 nuclear
    0:56:44 program
    0:56:44 which
    0:56:44 is
    0:56:45 built
    0:56:45 on
    0:56:46 centrifuges
    0:56:46 as
    0:56:46 Scott
    0:56:46 and
    0:56:46 I
    0:56:46 have
    0:56:47 been
    0:56:47 talking
    0:56:47 about
    0:56:48 that
    0:56:48 was
    0:56:48 actually
    0:56:49 given
    0:56:49 to
    0:56:49 the
    0:56:50 designs
    0:56:50 of
    0:56:50 that
    0:56:50 were
    0:56:50 given
    0:56:50 to
    0:56:51 them
    0:56:51 by
    0:56:51 Akhu
    0:56:51 Khan
    0:56:52 who
    0:56:52 was
    0:56:52 really
    0:56:52 the
    0:56:53 father
    0:56:53 of
    0:56:53 the
    0:56:54 Pakistani
    0:56:54 nuclear
    0:56:55 program
    0:56:56 and
    0:56:56 he
    0:56:56 actually
    0:56:56 stole
    0:56:57 those
    0:56:57 designs
    0:56:58 from
    0:56:58 the
    0:56:58 Dutch
    0:56:59 and
    0:56:59 handed
    0:56:59 it
    0:57:00 to
    0:57:00 the
    0:57:01 Iranians
    0:57:01 he
    0:57:01 also
    0:57:02 handed
    0:57:02 it
    0:57:02 to
    0:57:02 the
    0:57:02 North
    0:57:03 Koreans
    0:57:03 and
    0:57:03 the
    0:57:04 Libyans
    0:57:04 and
    0:57:04 others
    0:57:04 so
    0:57:05 they
    0:57:05 were
    0:57:05 able
    0:57:06 to
    0:57:07 illicitly
    0:57:07 acquire
    0:57:08 this
    0:57:08 technology
    0:57:09 or at least
    0:57:09 the
    0:57:09 blueprints
    0:57:10 for this
    0:57:10 technology
    0:57:10 from
    0:57:10 the
    0:57:11 father
    0:57:11 of
    0:57:11 the
    0:57:11 Pakistani
    0:57:12 bomb
    0:57:12 so
    0:57:12 I
    0:57:13 think
    0:57:13 that’s
    0:57:13 an
    0:57:13 interesting
    0:57:14 point
    0:57:14 but
    0:57:14 if
    0:57:14 you
    0:57:15 don’t
    0:57:15 mind
    0:57:15 as
    0:57:15 I
    0:57:16 said
    0:57:16 earlier
    0:57:16 because
    0:57:16 Bill
    0:57:17 Clinton
    0:57:18 clamped
    0:57:18 down
    0:57:18 on
    0:57:18 the
    0:57:18 Chinese
    0:57:19 and
    0:57:19 wouldn’t
    0:57:19 let
    0:57:19 them
    0:57:19 sell
    0:57:21 light
    0:57:22 water
    0:57:22 reactors
    0:57:23 so
    0:57:23 then
    0:57:23 they
    0:57:23 went
    0:57:23 to
    0:57:24 AQ
    0:57:24 Con
    0:57:24 and
    0:57:24 bought
    0:57:24 the
    0:57:25 stuff
    0:57:25 on
    0:57:25 the
    0:57:25 black
    0:57:25 market
    0:57:26 and
    0:57:26 they
    0:57:26 bought
    0:57:27 heavy
    0:57:27 water
    0:57:27 reactors
    0:57:27 from
    0:57:28 the
    0:57:28 Russians
    0:57:28 which
    0:57:28 they’ve
    0:57:28 been
    0:57:29 using
    0:57:29 for
    0:57:30 electricity
    0:57:31 I
    0:57:31 want
    0:57:32 to
    0:57:32 get
    0:57:32 to
    0:57:32 the
    0:57:33 second
    0:57:33 thing
    0:57:33 I
    0:57:33 think
    0:57:33 it’s
    0:57:34 important
    0:57:34 for
    0:57:34 listeners
    0:57:35 to
    0:57:35 know
    0:57:35 and
    0:57:35 then
    0:57:35 I
    0:57:37 was
    0:57:37 in
    0:57:37 the
    0:57:37 middle
    0:57:37 of
    0:57:37 saying
    0:57:38 though
    0:57:38 when
    0:57:38 you’re
    0:57:38 trying
    0:57:38 to
    0:57:39 make
    0:57:39 a
    0:57:39 uranium
    0:57:40 implosion
    0:57:40 bomb
    0:57:40 or
    0:57:41 a
    0:57:41 plutonium
    0:57:41 implosion
    0:57:42 bomb
    0:57:42 it’s
    0:57:42 a
    0:57:43 much
    0:57:43 more
    0:57:43 difficult
    0:57:44 task
    0:57:44 than
    0:57:44 putting
    0:57:45 together
    0:57:45 a
    0:57:45 gun
    0:57:45 type
    0:57:46 nuke
    0:57:46 takes
    0:57:46 an
    0:57:47 extraordinary
    0:57:47 amount
    0:57:47 of
    0:57:47 testing
    0:57:48 and
    0:57:48 that’s
    0:57:48 why
    0:57:48 he
    0:57:49 repeated
    0:57:49 probably
    0:57:50 unknowingly
    0:57:51 some
    0:57:51 false
    0:57:52 propaganda
    0:57:52 about
    0:57:53 Iran
    0:57:53 having
    0:57:54 this
    0:57:54 advanced
    0:57:55 testing
    0:57:55 facility
    0:57:55 I
    0:57:56 think
    0:57:56 he
    0:57:56 was
    0:57:56 implying
    0:57:57 correct me
    0:57:57 if I’m
    0:57:57 wrong
    0:57:57 he
    0:57:58 was
    0:57:58 I’m
    0:57:58 pretty
    0:57:58 sure
    0:57:58 you’re
    0:57:59 implying
    0:57:59 at
    0:57:59 Parchin
    0:58:00 that
    0:58:00 they
    0:58:00 were
    0:58:00 testing
    0:58:00 these
    0:58:01 implosion
    0:58:01 systems
    0:58:02 but
    0:58:02 that’s
    0:58:02 completely
    0:58:03 debunked
    0:58:03 it’s
    0:58:03 completely
    0:58:04 false
    0:58:04 but
    0:58:04 they
    0:58:04 were
    0:58:04 testing
    0:58:05 what
    0:58:05 they’re
    0:58:05 doing
    0:58:05 at
    0:58:06 Parchin
    0:58:06 with
    0:58:06 that
    0:58:06 implosion
    0:58:07 chamber
    0:58:08 was
    0:58:08 making
    0:58:09 nanodiamonds
    0:58:10 and the
    0:58:10 scientist
    0:58:11 in charge
    0:58:11 of it
    0:58:11 was
    0:58:12 Ukrainian
    0:58:12 who
    0:58:12 had
    0:58:13 studied
    0:58:13 in
    0:58:13 the
    0:58:13 Soviet
    0:58:14 Union
    0:58:14 at
    0:58:15 this
    0:58:15 military
    0:58:16 university
    0:58:16 where
    0:58:16 they
    0:58:16 said
    0:58:16 oh
    0:58:17 see
    0:58:17 they
    0:58:17 study
    0:58:17 nuclear
    0:58:18 stuff
    0:58:18 there
    0:58:18 but
    0:58:18 that
    0:58:19 wasn’t
    0:58:19 his
    0:58:19 speciality
    0:58:20 his
    0:58:20 name
    0:58:20 was
    0:58:20 Dan
    0:58:20 Elenko
    0:58:21 and
    0:58:21 he
    0:58:21 was
    0:58:21 a
    0:58:22 specialist
    0:58:22 in
    0:58:22 making
    0:58:23 nanodiamonds
    0:58:24 and
    0:58:24 that
    0:58:25 facility
    0:58:26 was
    0:58:26 vouched
    0:58:26 by
    0:58:27 Robert
    0:58:27 Kelly
    0:58:28 in
    0:58:28 the
    0:58:28 Christian
    0:58:29 Science
    0:58:29 Monitor
    0:58:29 told
    0:58:30 Scott
    0:58:30 Peterson
    0:58:31 of
    0:58:31 the
    0:58:31 Christian
    0:58:31 Science
    0:58:32 Monitor
    0:58:32 that
    0:58:32 that
    0:58:33 stuff
    0:58:33 was
    0:58:33 nonsense
    0:58:33 that
    0:58:34 that
    0:58:34 facility
    0:58:35 that
    0:58:35 implosion
    0:58:36 chamber
    0:58:36 could not
    0:58:37 be used
    0:58:37 for
    0:58:38 testing
    0:58:39 an
    0:58:40 implosion
    0:58:40 system
    0:58:40 for
    0:58:41 nuclear
    0:58:41 weapons
    0:58:41 and
    0:58:41 I
    0:58:41 know
    0:58:41 from
    0:58:42 Dr.
    0:58:42 Prather
    0:58:42 telling
    0:58:43 me
    0:58:43 that
    0:58:43 when
    0:58:44 the
    0:58:44 Americans
    0:58:45 were
    0:58:45 doing
    0:58:45 this
    0:58:45 and
    0:58:46 the
    0:58:46 Russians
    0:58:46 too
    0:58:47 that
    0:58:47 they
    0:58:47 test
    0:58:51 with
    0:58:52 lead
    0:58:52 instead
    0:58:52 of
    0:58:53 uranium
    0:58:53 in
    0:58:53 the
    0:58:53 core
    0:58:53 and
    0:58:54 then
    0:58:54 you
    0:58:54 take
    0:58:54 all
    0:58:55 this
    0:58:55 high
    0:58:55 speed
    0:58:55 x-ray
    0:58:56 film
    0:58:56 of
    0:58:56 the
    0:58:56 thing
    0:58:57 and
    0:58:57 it’s
    0:58:57 this
    0:58:57 huge
    0:58:57 and
    0:58:58 drawn
    0:58:58 out
    0:58:58 and
    0:58:59 incredibly
    0:59:00 complicated
    0:59:00 engineering
    0:59:01 process
    0:59:01 and
    0:59:01 this
    0:59:01 is
    0:59:02 probably
    0:59:02 why
    0:59:03 the
    0:59:03 week
    0:59:03 before
    0:59:03 the
    0:59:04 war
    0:59:04 the
    0:59:05 CIA
    0:59:05 said
    0:59:06 not only
    0:59:06 do
    0:59:06 we
    0:59:06 think
    0:59:06 they’re
    0:59:06 a
    0:59:07 year
    0:59:07 away
    0:59:07 from
    0:59:07 having
    0:59:08 enough
    0:59:08 nuclear
    0:59:09 material
    0:59:09 to
    0:59:09 make
    0:59:09 one
    0:59:09 bomb
    0:59:10 we
    0:59:10 think
    0:59:10 they’re
    0:59:10 three
    0:59:11 years
    0:59:11 away
    0:59:11 from
    0:59:12 having
    0:59:12 a
    0:59:12 finished
    0:59:13 warhead
    0:59:13 that
    0:59:14 must
    0:59:14 have
    0:59:14 been
    0:59:14 assuming
    0:59:15 that
    0:59:15 they
    0:59:15 would
    0:59:15 try
    0:59:15 to
    0:59:15 make
    0:59:15 an
    0:59:16 implosion
    0:59:16 system
    0:59:16 that
    0:59:17 you
    0:59:17 could
    0:59:17 put
    0:59:17 on
    0:59:18 in
    0:59:18 other
    0:59:18 words
    0:59:19 miniaturize
    0:59:19 and
    0:59:19 put
    0:59:20 on
    0:59:20 a
    0:59:20 missile
    0:59:20 as
    0:59:21 opposed
    0:59:22 in
    0:59:22 other
    0:59:22 words
    0:59:22 skipping
    0:59:23 a
    0:59:23 gun
    0:59:23 type
    0:59:23 nuke
    0:59:24 that
    0:59:24 would
    0:59:24 be
    0:59:24 useless
    0:59:25 to
    0:59:25 them
    0:59:25 so
    0:59:26 it’s
    0:59:26 very
    0:59:27 important
    0:59:27 to
    0:59:27 understand
    0:59:28 then
    0:59:28 that
    0:59:29 if
    0:59:29 if
    0:59:29 they
    0:59:30 have
    0:59:30 a
    0:59:30 uranium
    0:59:30 route
    0:59:31 to
    0:59:31 the
    0:59:31 bomb
    0:59:31 if
    0:59:32 they
    0:59:32 withdraw
    0:59:32 from
    0:59:32 the
    0:59:33 treaty
    0:59:42 useless
    0:59:42 to
    0:59:42 them
    0:59:43 or
    0:59:43 they
    0:59:43 can
    0:59:44 take
    0:59:44 their
    0:59:45 ponderous
    0:59:46 ass
    0:59:46 time
    0:59:46 trying
    0:59:47 to
    0:59:47 figure
    0:59:47 out
    0:59:48 how
    0:59:48 to
    0:59:48 make
    0:59:48 an
    0:59:48 implosion
    0:59:49 system
    0:59:49 work
    0:59:50 first
    0:59:50 of
    0:59:50 I’m
    0:59:50 glad
    0:59:50 Scott
    0:59:51 knows
    0:59:51 about
    0:59:51 what’s
    0:59:51 going
    0:59:52 on
    0:59:52 at
    0:59:52 Parchin
    0:59:52 because
    0:59:52 the
    0:59:53 IAEA
    0:59:53 doesn’t
    0:59:53 and
    0:59:54 they’ve
    0:59:54 been
    0:59:54 asking
    0:59:54 the
    0:59:55 Iranians
    0:59:55 that’s
    0:59:55 not
    0:59:56 true
    0:59:56 the
    0:59:56 Iranians
    0:59:56 told
    0:59:57 the
    0:59:57 IAEA
    0:59:58 you can
    0:59:58 inspect
    0:59:58 any
    0:59:59 five
    0:59:59 out
    0:59:59 of
    0:59:59 ten
    1:00:00 facilities
    1:00:00 here
    1:00:01 carte
    1:00:01 blanche
    1:00:02 go ahead
    1:00:02 and they
    1:00:02 did
    1:00:13 so
    1:00:13 I
    1:00:14 want
    1:00:14 to
    1:00:14 just
    1:00:14 again
    1:00:15 just
    1:00:15 put
    1:00:15 it
    1:00:15 out
    1:00:15 there
    1:00:15 for
    1:00:16 your
    1:00:16 listeners
    1:00:16 they
    1:00:16 should
    1:00:17 just
    1:00:17 google
    1:00:18 Ahmad
    1:00:19 program
    1:00:20 and
    1:00:20 they
    1:00:20 should
    1:00:21 learn
    1:00:21 about
    1:00:21 the
    1:00:21 Ahmad
    1:00:22 program
    1:00:22 because
    1:00:22 it’s
    1:00:23 detailed
    1:00:24 in
    1:00:25 US
    1:00:25 government
    1:00:26 documents
    1:00:27 experts
    1:00:27 in
    1:00:28 Iran’s
    1:00:28 nuclear
    1:00:28 program
    1:00:29 including
    1:00:29 David
    1:00:29 Albright
    1:00:29 who
    1:00:30 actually
    1:00:30 saw
    1:00:31 the
    1:00:31 archive
    1:00:31 went
    1:00:31 in
    1:00:31 there
    1:00:32 wrote
    1:00:32 a
    1:00:32 whole
    1:00:32 book
    1:00:32 on
    1:00:32 it
    1:00:33 and
    1:00:33 there’s
    1:00:33 a
    1:00:33 lot
    1:00:34 of
    1:00:34 detail
    1:00:34 about
    1:00:34 how
    1:00:35 Iran
    1:00:35 had
    1:00:35 an
    1:00:36 active
    1:00:36 nuclear
    1:00:37 weapons
    1:00:37 program
    1:00:42 POA
    1:00:42 because
    1:00:43 I
    1:00:43 actually
    1:00:43 think
    1:00:43 it’s
    1:00:43 an
    1:00:44 interesting
    1:00:44 discussion
    1:00:45 for
    1:00:45 Scott
    1:00:45 and
    1:00:45 I
    1:00:46 to
    1:00:46 have
    1:00:47 because
    1:00:47 I
    1:00:47 think
    1:00:47 there’s
    1:00:47 things
    1:00:48 that
    1:00:48 we
    1:00:48 agree
    1:00:48 on
    1:00:48 there
    1:00:49 and
    1:00:49 things
    1:00:49 that
    1:00:49 we
    1:00:49 disagree
    1:00:50 on
    1:00:50 right
    1:00:50 so
    1:00:50 this
    1:00:50 is
    1:00:51 a
    1:00:51 2015
    1:00:52 nuclear
    1:00:52 deal
    1:00:52 that
    1:00:53 Obama
    1:00:53 reaches
    1:00:54 it’s
    1:00:55 negotiated
    1:00:55 painstakingly
    1:00:56 over
    1:00:56 two
    1:00:56 years
    1:00:56 between
    1:00:57 2013
    1:00:57 and
    1:00:58 2015
    1:00:59 and
    1:00:59 it
    1:00:59 follows
    1:00:59 the
    1:00:59 interim
    1:01:00 agreement
    1:01:01 that
    1:01:01 the
    1:01:01 United
    1:01:01 States
    1:01:02 negotiated
    1:01:02 with
    1:01:02 Iran
    1:01:03 and
    1:01:03 it’s
    1:01:04 in
    1:01:04 that
    1:01:04 interim
    1:01:05 agreement
    1:01:05 in
    1:01:05 2013
    1:01:06 where
    1:01:06 the
    1:01:06 United
    1:01:06 States
    1:01:06 for the
    1:01:07 first
    1:01:07 time
    1:01:08 actually
    1:01:09 gives
    1:01:09 Iran
    1:01:09 the
    1:01:10 right
    1:01:10 to
    1:01:11 enrich
    1:01:11 uranium
    1:01:11 there
    1:01:12 were
    1:01:12 five
    1:01:12 UN
    1:01:13 Security
    1:01:13 Council
    1:01:13 resolutions
    1:01:14 passed
    1:01:14 with
    1:01:14 the
    1:01:14 support
    1:01:14 of
    1:01:15 Russia
    1:01:15 and
    1:01:15 China
    1:01:16 that
    1:01:16 said
    1:01:16 Iran
    1:01:16 should
    1:01:16 have
    1:01:17 no
    1:01:17 enrichment
    1:01:18 capability
    1:01:18 and
    1:01:18 no
    1:01:19 plutonium
    1:01:20 reprocessing
    1:01:20 capability
    1:01:20 because
    1:01:21 of the
    1:01:21 fears
    1:01:22 that
    1:01:22 Iran
    1:01:22 would
    1:01:22 turn
    1:01:22 that
    1:01:23 into
    1:01:23 a
    1:01:23 nuclear
    1:01:24 weapons
    1:01:24 program
    1:01:24 but
    1:01:25 in
    1:01:25 2013
    1:01:25 they
    1:01:25 give
    1:01:26 that
    1:01:26 up
    1:01:27 2015
    1:01:27 we
    1:01:27 reach
    1:01:28 the
    1:01:28 JCPOA
    1:01:29 and
    1:01:29 under
    1:01:29 the
    1:01:30 JCPOA
    1:01:30 Iran
    1:01:30 is
    1:01:31 allowed
    1:01:31 to
    1:01:31 retain
    1:01:32 enrichment
    1:01:32 capability
    1:01:33 and
    1:01:34 reprocessing
    1:01:34 capability
    1:01:35 but
    1:01:35 over
    1:01:36 time
    1:01:36 so
    1:01:36 Scott
    1:01:36 mentioned
    1:01:37 these
    1:01:37 sunsets
    1:01:37 and
    1:01:38 just
    1:01:38 want
    1:01:38 your
    1:01:38 listeners
    1:01:39 to
    1:01:39 understand
    1:01:39 what
    1:01:39 the
    1:01:40 sunsets
    1:01:40 are
    1:01:41 essentially
    1:01:41 the
    1:01:41 restrictions
    1:01:42 that are
    1:01:42 placed
    1:01:42 on
    1:01:43 Iran’s
    1:01:43 nuclear
    1:01:44 program
    1:01:44 and
    1:01:45 there’s
    1:01:45 some
    1:01:45 really
    1:01:45 serious
    1:01:46 restrictions
    1:01:46 placed
    1:01:46 on
    1:01:47 it
    1:01:47 especially
    1:01:47 in
    1:01:47 the
    1:01:47 short
    1:01:48 term
    1:01:48 Scott’s
    1:01:48 right
    1:01:49 the
    1:01:49 enriched
    1:01:50 material
    1:01:50 has
    1:01:50 to
    1:01:50 be
    1:01:51 shipped
    1:01:51 out
    1:01:51 not
    1:01:58 facilities
    1:01:59 and
    1:01:59 atans
    1:01:59 and
    1:02:00 Fordeaux
    1:02:00 they’re
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    1:02:01 closed
    1:02:02 they still
    1:02:02 remain
    1:02:02 open
    1:02:03 but
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    1:02:03 are
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    1:02:04 what
    1:02:04 they
    1:02:04 can
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    1:02:04 with
    1:02:04 it
    1:02:05 there’s
    1:02:05 also
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    1:02:06 on
    1:02:06 Iran’s
    1:02:07 ability
    1:02:07 to
    1:02:08 test
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    1:02:09 install
    1:02:10 advanced
    1:02:11 centrifuges
    1:02:11 now
    1:02:11 the
    1:02:12 reason
    1:02:12 you’d
    1:02:12 want
    1:02:12 an
    1:02:13 advanced
    1:02:13 centrifuge
    1:02:14 rather
    1:02:14 than
    1:02:14 the
    1:02:14 first
    1:02:15 generation
    1:02:15 centrifuge
    1:02:16 that
    1:02:16 Akhu
    1:02:17 Khan
    1:02:17 the
    1:02:17 father
    1:02:18 of
    1:02:18 Pakistan’s
    1:02:18 nuclear
    1:02:19 bomb
    1:02:19 gave
    1:02:19 to
    1:02:19 the
    1:02:20 Iranians
    1:02:20 is
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    1:02:21 need
    1:02:21 a
    1:02:21 smaller
    1:02:22 number
    1:02:22 of
    1:02:22 these
    1:02:23 centrifuges
    1:02:23 to
    1:02:23 produce
    1:02:24 weapons
    1:02:24 grade
    1:02:25 uranium
    1:02:25 if
    1:02:25 it’s
    1:02:25 smaller
    1:02:26 it’s
    1:02:26 easier
    1:02:26 to
    1:02:27 hide
    1:02:27 you
    1:02:27 can
    1:02:27 put
    1:02:28 it
    1:02:28 in
    1:02:29 clandestine
    1:02:30 facilities
    1:02:30 without
    1:02:30 this
    1:02:31 large
    1:02:31 enrichment
    1:02:32 centrifuge
    1:02:33 footprint
    1:02:34 so
    1:02:34 there’s
    1:02:34 restrictions
    1:02:35 on
    1:02:35 these
    1:02:35 advanced
    1:02:36 centrifuge
    1:02:36 R&D
    1:02:37 and
    1:02:38 Iran
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    1:02:39 significant
    1:02:40 sanctions
    1:02:40 relief
    1:02:40 as part
    1:02:41 of
    1:02:41 this
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    1:02:42 whole
    1:02:42 assumption
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    1:02:44 an
    1:02:44 Iranian
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    1:02:45 American
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    1:02:46 are
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    1:02:48 over
    1:02:48 time
    1:02:53 restrictions
    1:02:53 on
    1:02:54 Iran’s
    1:02:54 capabilities
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    1:02:56 all
    1:02:56 of
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    1:02:58 by
    1:02:59 2031
    1:02:59 so
    1:03:00 in
    1:03:00 2031
    1:03:01 Iran
    1:03:01 can
    1:03:01 emerge
    1:03:02 with
    1:03:02 an
    1:03:02 industrial
    1:03:03 size
    1:03:03 enrichment
    1:03:04 capability
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    1:03:07 with
    1:03:08 advanced
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    1:03:09 can
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    1:03:10 many
    1:03:11 enrichment
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    1:03:12 want
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    1:03:12 build
    1:03:14 and
    1:03:14 Iran
    1:03:14 can
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    1:03:15 to
    1:03:16 higher
    1:03:16 and
    1:03:16 higher
    1:03:16 levels
    1:03:17 so
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    1:03:17 can
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    1:03:17 from
    1:03:18 3.67
    1:03:18 to
    1:03:19 20%
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    1:03:20 can
    1:03:20 go
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    1:03:21 60%
    1:03:21 there
    1:03:21 is
    1:03:22 nothing
    1:03:22 in
    1:03:22 the
    1:03:22 JCPOA
    1:03:23 that
    1:03:23 prohibits
    1:03:23 them
    1:03:24 from
    1:03:24 going
    1:03:24 to
    1:03:25 90%
    1:03:25 in
    1:03:25 Iran
    1:03:26 and
    1:03:26 I
    1:03:26 think
    1:03:27 at
    1:03:27 the
    1:03:27 time
    1:03:28 the
    1:03:28 Obama
    1:03:29 administration’s
    1:03:29 theory
    1:03:30 of the
    1:03:30 case
    1:03:30 was
    1:03:31 yeah
    1:03:32 sure
    1:03:32 in
    1:03:32 15
    1:03:32 years
    1:03:33 time
    1:03:34 we’ll
    1:03:34 be
    1:03:35 gone
    1:03:36 hopefully
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    1:03:36 be a
    1:03:36 different
    1:03:37 government
    1:03:37 in
    1:03:37 Iran
    1:03:38 and
    1:03:38 maybe
    1:03:38 we
    1:03:39 can
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    1:03:40 a
    1:03:40 different
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    1:03:42 government
    1:03:42 that
    1:03:42 will
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    1:03:43 sunsets
    1:03:43 so
    1:03:44 that
    1:03:44 that’s
    1:03:44 the
    1:03:45 JCPOA
    1:03:46 the
    1:03:46 reason
    1:03:51 deal
    1:03:52 is
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    1:03:53 because
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    1:03:53 didn’t
    1:03:53 have
    1:03:53 some
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    1:03:54 term
    1:03:55 temporary
    1:03:56 restrictions
    1:03:56 that
    1:03:56 were
    1:03:56 useful
    1:03:57 but
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    1:03:58 got
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    1:03:58 wrong
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    1:03:59 was
    1:03:59 the
    1:03:59 same
    1:03:59 regime
    1:04:00 in
    1:04:00 power
    1:04:00 in
    1:04:01 15
    1:04:01 years
    1:04:02 that
    1:04:02 regime
    1:04:02 could
    1:04:03 emerge
    1:04:03 with
    1:04:03 this
    1:04:04 huge
    1:04:04 nuclear
    1:04:05 program
    1:04:05 with
    1:04:06 the
    1:04:06 capabilities
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    1:04:07 develop
    1:04:07 nuclear
    1:04:08 weapons
    1:04:08 in
    1:04:09 these
    1:04:09 multiple
    1:04:09 hardened
    1:04:10 sites
    1:04:11 Iran
    1:04:11 we
    1:04:12 estimated
    1:04:12 would
    1:04:12 have
    1:04:12 a
    1:04:12 trillion
    1:04:13 dollars
    1:04:13 in
    1:04:13 sanctions
    1:04:14 relief
    1:04:14 over
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    1:04:15 year
    1:04:15 period
    1:04:16 and
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    1:04:16 it
    1:04:16 wrong
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    1:04:17 it
    1:04:17 was
    1:04:17 the
    1:04:17 same
    1:04:18 regime
    1:04:18 in
    1:04:19 power
    1:04:19 as
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    1:04:19 had
    1:04:20 been
    1:04:20 in
    1:04:20 power
    1:04:20 in
    1:04:21 2015
    1:04:21 then
    1:04:21 you
    1:04:22 had
    1:04:22 some
    1:04:22 difficulties
    1:04:23 okay
    1:04:23 I
    1:04:23 just
    1:04:23 wanted
    1:04:24 to
    1:04:24 lay
    1:04:24 out
    1:04:25 the
    1:04:25 case
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    1:04:26 the
    1:04:26 JCPOA
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    1:04:26 to
    1:04:27 steel
    1:04:27 man
    1:04:28 Scott’s
    1:04:29 argument
    1:04:29 I
    1:04:29 think
    1:04:29 there’s
    1:04:30 a
    1:04:30 legitimate
    1:04:30 argument
    1:04:31 because
    1:04:31 I
    1:04:31 actually
    1:04:32 didn’t
    1:04:32 support
    1:04:32 the
    1:04:32 withdrawal
    1:04:33 from
    1:04:33 the
    1:04:33 agreement
    1:04:35 President
    1:04:35 Trump
    1:04:35 withdrew
    1:04:36 in
    1:04:36 2018
    1:04:37 I
    1:04:37 did
    1:04:38 a
    1:04:38 similar
    1:04:39 version
    1:04:45 UK
    1:04:46 who
    1:04:46 were
    1:04:46 part
    1:04:46 of
    1:04:46 the
    1:04:46 original
    1:04:47 deal
    1:04:48 extend
    1:04:48 the
    1:04:49 sunsets
    1:04:49 as
    1:04:49 an
    1:04:50 agreement
    1:04:50 between
    1:04:50 the
    1:04:50 United
    1:04:51 States
    1:04:51 and
    1:04:51 Europe
    1:04:52 and
    1:04:52 then
    1:04:53 collectively
    1:04:53 go to
    1:04:53 the
    1:04:54 Iranians
    1:04:54 and
    1:04:54 say
    1:04:55 let’s
    1:04:55 renegotiate
    1:04:56 this
    1:04:56 agreement
    1:04:56 to
    1:04:57 extend
    1:04:57 the
    1:04:57 sunsets
    1:04:57 if
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    1:04:58 don’t
    1:04:58 want
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    1:04:58 nuclear
    1:04:59 weapons
    1:04:59 program
    1:05:00 then
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    1:05:00 should
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    1:05:01 that
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    1:05:02 don’t
    1:05:02 need
    1:05:02 these
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    1:05:05 the
    1:05:05 sunsets
    1:05:06 for
    1:05:06 another
    1:05:06 15
    1:05:06 20
    1:05:07 30
    1:05:07 years
    1:05:08 President
    1:05:08 give
    1:05:08 me
    1:05:08 a
    1:05:09 screenshot
    1:05:09 of
    1:05:09 this
    1:05:10 give
    1:05:10 me
    1:05:10 a
    1:05:10 pound
    1:05:10 dude
    1:05:11 there
    1:05:11 we
    1:05:11 go
    1:05:13 agreement
    1:05:13 that
    1:05:14 makes
    1:05:14 my
    1:05:14 heart
    1:05:14 feel
    1:05:15 and
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    1:05:15 think
    1:05:15 the
    1:05:15 I
    1:05:15 told
    1:05:15 it
    1:05:16 would
    1:05:16 have
    1:05:16 gone
    1:05:16 for
    1:05:16 it
    1:05:17 too
    1:05:17 well
    1:05:17 so
    1:05:18 I’m
    1:05:18 not
    1:05:18 sure
    1:05:18 if
    1:05:18 he
    1:05:39 the
    1:05:39 Europeans
    1:05:39 actually
    1:05:40 rejected
    1:05:40 this
    1:05:40 idea
    1:05:42 and
    1:05:42 so
    1:05:42 at
    1:05:42 some
    1:05:42 point
    1:05:43 Trump
    1:05:43 said
    1:05:43 look
    1:05:43 if
    1:05:43 the
    1:05:43 Europeans
    1:05:44 aren’t
    1:05:44 prepared
    1:05:44 to
    1:05:44 get
    1:05:44 on
    1:05:45 side
    1:05:45 then
    1:05:45 I’m
    1:05:46 out
    1:05:46 of
    1:05:46 the
    1:05:46 deal
    1:05:47 I’m
    1:05:47 out
    1:05:47 of
    1:05:47 the
    1:05:47 deal
    1:05:48 and
    1:05:48 if
    1:05:48 you’re
    1:05:48 interested
    1:05:48 I can
    1:05:49 talk
    1:05:49 about
    1:05:49 why
    1:05:49 I
    1:05:49 thought
    1:05:49 we
    1:05:50 should
    1:05:50 have
    1:05:50 stayed
    1:05:50 in
    1:05:50 the
    1:05:51 deal
    1:05:51 because
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    1:05:51 thought
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    1:05:51 gave
    1:05:51 us
    1:05:52 some
    1:05:52 important
    1:05:53 restrictions
    1:05:53 in
    1:05:53 the
    1:05:54 short
    1:05:54 term
    1:05:54 certain
    1:05:55 leverage
    1:05:56 but
    1:05:56 Trump
    1:05:56 decides
    1:05:56 to
    1:05:57 withdraw
    1:05:57 from
    1:05:57 that
    1:05:57 agreement
    1:05:58 because
    1:05:58 he
    1:05:59 recognizes
    1:05:59 that
    1:05:59 the
    1:06:00 fatal
    1:06:00 flaw
    1:06:01 of
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    1:06:01 agreement
    1:06:03 are
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    1:06:04 any
    1:06:04 enrichment
    1:06:05 capability
    1:06:05 especially
    1:06:06 at an
    1:06:06 industrial
    1:06:07 size
    1:06:07 within
    1:06:08 15
    1:06:08 years
    1:06:09 and
    1:06:10 two
    1:06:10 are
    1:06:10 the
    1:06:11 sunsets
    1:06:11 as
    1:06:11 Scott
    1:06:12 said
    1:06:12 which
    1:06:13 under
    1:06:13 which
    1:06:13 these
    1:06:14 restrictions
    1:06:14 are
    1:06:14 going
    1:06:14 to
    1:06:15 go
    1:06:15 away
    1:06:16 and
    1:06:16 Iran
    1:06:16 is
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    1:06:16 to
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    1:06:17 up
    1:06:17 with
    1:06:17 a
    1:06:18 massive
    1:06:18 nuclear
    1:06:19 program
    1:06:19 I
    1:06:19 think
    1:06:19 that’s
    1:06:20 just
    1:06:20 important
    1:06:20 we
    1:06:20 can
    1:06:21 talk
    1:06:21 about
    1:06:21 the
    1:06:22 JCPOA
    1:06:22 the
    1:06:23 process
    1:06:23 and
    1:06:27 framing
    1:06:27 Trump
    1:06:28 for
    1:06:28 treason
    1:06:28 with
    1:06:29 Russia
    1:06:29 and
    1:06:30 pushing
    1:06:30 the
    1:06:30 Russiagate
    1:06:31 hoax
    1:06:31 I’m
    1:06:32 trying
    1:06:32 to
    1:06:32 agree
    1:06:32 with
    1:06:32 my
    1:06:32 friend
    1:06:32 here
    1:06:33 because
    1:06:33 what
    1:06:34 it
    1:06:34 is
    1:06:34 is
    1:06:34 that
    1:06:35 that
    1:06:35 completely
    1:06:36 ruined
    1:06:36 Donald
    1:06:37 Trump’s
    1:06:37 ability
    1:06:38 to
    1:06:38 engage
    1:06:38 in
    1:06:39 real
    1:06:39 diplomacy
    1:06:39 with
    1:06:40 Russia
    1:06:40 for
    1:06:40 his
    1:06:41 entire
    1:06:41 first
    1:06:41 term
    1:06:42 certainly
    1:06:42 for
    1:06:42 the
    1:06:42 first
    1:06:42 three
    1:06:43 years
    1:06:43 of
    1:06:43 it
    1:06:43 he
    1:06:43 was
    1:06:44 completely
    1:06:45 handcuffed
    1:06:45 it
    1:06:46 was
    1:06:48 terrible
    1:06:48 as
    1:06:48 I’m
    1:06:48 sure
    1:06:49 you’re
    1:06:49 well
    1:06:49 aware
    1:06:50 for
    1:06:50 the
    1:06:51 future
    1:06:51 now
    1:06:51 our
    1:06:51 past
    1:06:57 Trump
    1:06:57 pick
    1:06:57 up
    1:06:57 the
    1:06:58 phone
    1:06:58 I
    1:06:58 don’t
    1:06:58 know
    1:06:59 the
    1:06:59 details
    1:06:59 here
    1:06:59 but
    1:06:59 I’ll
    1:06:59 take
    1:07:00 his
    1:07:00 word
    1:07:00 for
    1:07:00 it
    1:07:00 that
    1:07:00 the
    1:07:01 British
    1:07:01 and
    1:07:01 the
    1:07:01 French
    1:07:01 and
    1:07:01 the
    1:07:02 Germans
    1:07:03 weren’t
    1:07:03 being
    1:07:03 nice
    1:07:03 to
    1:07:04 Trump
    1:07:04 they
    1:07:04 didn’t
    1:07:04 like
    1:07:04 him
    1:07:05 they
    1:07:05 didn’t
    1:07:05 want
    1:07:05 to
    1:07:05 do
    1:07:05 it
    1:07:06 why
    1:07:06 couldn’t
    1:07:06 he
    1:07:06 pick
    1:07:06 the
    1:07:07 pick
    1:07:07 up
    1:07:07 the
    1:07:07 phone
    1:07:07 and
    1:07:07 say
    1:07:08 hey
    1:07:08 Putin
    1:07:08 I
    1:07:09 need
    1:07:09 you
    1:07:09 to
    1:07:09 call
    1:07:09 the
    1:07:10 Ayatollah
    1:07:10 for
    1:07:10 me
    1:07:11 and
    1:07:11 tell
    1:07:11 him
    1:07:11 hey
    1:07:11 you’d
    1:07:12 like
    1:07:27 later
    1:07:27 topic
    1:07:28 and
    1:07:28 so
    1:07:29 it’s
    1:07:29 going
    1:07:29 to
    1:07:29 be
    1:07:29 a
    1:07:29 provocative
    1:07:30 statement
    1:07:30 but
    1:07:31 I
    1:07:31 think
    1:07:31 let’s
    1:07:32 put
    1:07:32 it
    1:07:32 on
    1:07:32 the
    1:07:32 table
    1:07:33 I
    1:07:33 absolutely
    1:07:34 agree
    1:07:34 with
    1:07:34 Scott
    1:07:35 I
    1:07:35 mean
    1:07:35 I
    1:07:35 think
    1:07:35 it
    1:07:35 was
    1:07:36 a
    1:07:38 travesty
    1:07:39 that
    1:07:40 they
    1:07:40 of
    1:07:40 the
    1:07:41 accusations
    1:07:41 against
    1:07:42 Donald
    1:07:42 Trump
    1:07:43 as a
    1:07:43 Russian
    1:07:43 agent
    1:07:44 I
    1:07:44 mean
    1:07:45 completely
    1:07:46 debunked
    1:07:46 but
    1:07:47 it
    1:07:47 did
    1:07:47 it
    1:07:47 I
    1:07:47 think
    1:07:48 it
    1:07:48 paralyzed
    1:07:49 his
    1:07:49 presidency
    1:07:50 for
    1:07:50 two
    1:07:51 two
    1:07:51 and
    1:07:51 a
    1:07:51 half
    1:07:51 years
    1:07:51 I
    1:07:52 agree
    1:07:52 with
    1:07:52 Scott
    1:07:53 the
    1:07:53 idea
    1:07:57 agent
    1:07:58 for
    1:07:58 Vladimir
    1:07:59 Putin
    1:07:59 I
    1:07:59 think
    1:08:00 is
    1:08:02 unfounded
    1:08:02 and
    1:08:03 I
    1:08:03 thought
    1:08:04 at
    1:08:04 the
    1:08:04 time
    1:08:04 disgraceful
    1:08:05 and
    1:08:05 I
    1:08:05 thought
    1:08:05 it
    1:08:05 was
    1:08:05 really
    1:08:05 important
    1:08:06 I
    1:08:06 think
    1:08:06 Scott
    1:08:06 did
    1:08:06 really
    1:08:07 good
    1:08:07 work
    1:08:07 in
    1:08:08 debunking
    1:08:08 that
    1:08:09 I
    1:08:09 would
    1:08:09 say
    1:08:09 that
    1:08:09 just
    1:08:10 a
    1:08:10 couple
    1:08:10 days
    1:08:10 ago
    1:08:10 I
    1:08:10 was
    1:08:11 watching
    1:08:11 a
    1:08:11 podcast
    1:08:12 Scott
    1:08:12 was
    1:08:12 on
    1:08:13 and
    1:08:13 he
    1:08:13 accused
    1:08:14 Trump
    1:08:15 of
    1:08:15 being
    1:08:15 an
    1:08:15 agent
    1:08:16 for
    1:08:16 Netanyahu
    1:08:16 and
    1:08:17 the
    1:08:17 Israeli
    1:08:17 government
    1:08:18 so
    1:08:18 I
    1:08:18 think
    1:08:18 again
    1:08:18 the
    1:08:19 accusations
    1:08:19 that
    1:08:19 the
    1:08:19 president
    1:08:20 United
    1:08:20 States
    1:08:20 as
    1:08:20 a
    1:08:21 foreign
    1:08:21 agent
    1:08:22 for
    1:08:22 some
    1:08:22 foreign
    1:08:23 government
    1:08:23 I
    1:08:23 think
    1:08:23 we
    1:08:23 should
    1:08:24 put
    1:08:24 all
    1:08:24 of
    1:08:24 that
    1:08:25 aside
    1:08:25 in
    1:08:25 any
    1:08:26 discussion
    1:08:27 and
    1:08:27 just
    1:08:27 say
    1:08:27 President
    1:08:27 Trump
    1:08:28 makes
    1:08:28 his
    1:08:28 own
    1:08:28 decisions
    1:08:29 whether
    1:08:29 we
    1:08:29 agree
    1:08:29 with
    1:08:29 them
    1:08:30 but
    1:08:30 he’s
    1:08:31 not
    1:08:31 working
    1:08:31 for
    1:08:32 the
    1:08:33 FSB
    1:08:33 and
    1:08:33 he’s
    1:08:33 not
    1:08:33 working
    1:08:34 for
    1:08:34 Mossad
    1:08:35 President
    1:08:36 Trump
    1:08:36 makes
    1:08:36 his
    1:08:36 own
    1:08:36 decisions
    1:08:37 based
    1:08:37 on
    1:08:37 American
    1:08:38 national
    1:08:38 security
    1:08:38 I
    1:08:39 was
    1:08:39 making
    1:08:39 a
    1:08:39 point
    1:08:40 that’s
    1:08:40 hyperbole
    1:08:40 making
    1:08:40 a
    1:08:41 point
    1:08:41 but
    1:08:41 he
    1:08:41 did
    1:08:42 in
    1:08:42 fact
    1:08:42 could
    1:08:42 you
    1:08:42 google
    1:08:43 this
    1:08:43 for
    1:08:43 me
    1:08:43 because
    1:08:43 I
    1:08:43 always
    1:08:44 forget
    1:08:44 exactly
    1:08:44 how
    1:08:44 many
    1:08:45 hundreds
    1:08:45 of
    1:08:45 millions
    1:08:46 of
    1:08:46 dollars
    1:08:46 that
    1:08:46 he
    1:08:46 took
    1:08:47 from
    1:08:47 Sheldon
    1:08:48 Adelson
    1:08:48 and
    1:08:48 Miriam
    1:08:49 Adelson
    1:08:49 who are
    1:08:50 Americans
    1:08:50 by the way
    1:08:51 who
    1:08:51 are
    1:08:51 Americans
    1:08:51 who
    1:08:52 Sheldon
    1:08:52 Adelson
    1:08:52 said
    1:08:52 his
    1:08:53 only
    1:08:53 regret
    1:08:53 in
    1:08:53 life
    1:08:53 is
    1:08:54 that
    1:08:54 he
    1:08:54 served
    1:08:54 in
    1:08:54 the
    1:08:54 American
    1:08:55 army
    1:08:55 instead
    1:08:55 of
    1:08:55 the
    1:08:56 IDF
    1:08:56 and
    1:08:56 said
    1:08:57 America
    1:08:57 should
    1:08:57 nuke
    1:08:58 Iran
    1:08:58 in
    1:08:58 order
    1:08:59 to
    1:08:59 get
    1:08:59 them
    1:08:59 to
    1:08:59 give
    1:09:00 up
    1:09:00 their
    1:09:00 nuclear
    1:09:00 weapons
    1:09:00 he
    1:09:01 said
    1:09:01 I
    1:09:01 have
    1:09:01 one
    1:09:02 issue
    1:09:02 one
    1:09:03 Israel
    1:09:04 and
    1:09:04 they
    1:09:04 gave
    1:09:05 Trump
    1:09:06 hundreds
    1:09:06 of
    1:09:06 millions
    1:09:07 of
    1:09:07 dollars
    1:09:07 over
    1:09:07 three
    1:09:08 campaigns
    1:09:09 that’s
    1:09:09 not
    1:09:09 just
    1:09:09 a
    1:09:10 jeez
    1:09:10 I
    1:09:10 really
    1:09:10 hope
    1:09:11 you’ll
    1:09:11 think
    1:09:11 of
    1:09:11 me
    1:09:11 in
    1:09:11 the
    1:09:12 future
    1:09:12 Scott
    1:09:12 first
    1:09:13 of
    1:09:13 a
    1:09:13 couple
    1:09:13 things
    1:09:14 so
    1:09:14 one
    1:09:14 there’s
    1:09:15 a
    1:09:15 lot
    1:09:15 of
    1:09:15 people
    1:09:16 that
    1:09:16 are
    1:09:16 friends
    1:09:16 with
    1:09:16 Trump
    1:09:17 and
    1:09:17 try
    1:09:17 to
    1:09:17 gain
    1:09:18 influence
    1:09:18 I
    1:09:19 believe
    1:09:28 decisions
    1:09:29 and
    1:09:30 maybe
    1:09:30 I wonder
    1:09:31 what
    1:09:31 decisions
    1:09:31 I could
    1:09:32 get you
    1:09:32 to make
    1:09:32 if I
    1:09:32 gave
    1:09:32 you
    1:09:33 hundreds
    1:09:33 of
    1:09:33 millions
    1:09:34 of
    1:09:34 dollars
    1:09:34 well
    1:09:34 me
    1:09:35 personally
    1:09:35 you
    1:09:35 can
    1:09:35 give
    1:09:35 me
    1:09:35 it
    1:09:36 doesn’t
    1:09:36 matter
    1:09:37 I
    1:09:37 couldn’t
    1:09:37 even
    1:09:37 get
    1:09:37 you
    1:09:38 I
    1:09:38 couldn’t
    1:09:38 get
    1:09:38 you
    1:09:38 to
    1:09:38 drop
    1:09:38 in
    1:09:38 on
    1:09:39 a
    1:09:39 ramp
    1:09:39 or
    1:09:39 nothing
    1:09:39 for
    1:09:40 a hundred
    1:09:40 million
    1:09:40 bucks
    1:09:40 nothing
    1:09:41 you
    1:09:41 cannot
    1:09:42 control
    1:09:42 my
    1:09:42 decisions
    1:09:43 with
    1:09:43 money
    1:09:44 it’s
    1:09:44 the
    1:09:45 American
    1:09:45 system
    1:09:45 Lex
    1:09:45 that’s
    1:09:46 how
    1:09:46 it works
    1:09:46 it’s
    1:09:46 money
    1:09:48 we can
    1:09:48 go
    1:09:49 It’s
    1:09:49 the same
    1:09:49 if
    1:09:49 we’re
    1:09:49 talking
    1:09:49 about
    1:09:50 Archer
    1:09:50 Daniels
    1:09:50 Midland
    1:09:51 company
    1:09:52 throwing
    1:09:52 hundreds
    1:09:52 of
    1:09:52 millions
    1:09:53 of
    1:09:53 dollars
    1:09:53 around
    1:09:54 they
    1:09:54 get
    1:09:54 policies
    1:09:55 based
    1:09:55 on
    1:09:55 their
    1:09:55 hundreds
    1:09:56 of
    1:09:56 millions
    1:09:56 of
    1:09:56 dollars
    1:09:57 the
    1:09:57 squeaky
    1:09:57 wheel
    1:09:57 gets
    1:09:58 the
    1:09:58 grease
    1:09:58 right
    1:09:59 all
    1:09:59 that
    1:09:59 so
    1:09:59 Lex
    1:09:59 I
    1:10:00 think
    1:10:01 Elon
    1:10:01 must
    1:10:01 spend
    1:10:02 $400
    1:10:02 million
    1:10:02 to
    1:10:03 helping
    1:10:03 Trump
    1:10:03 get
    1:10:03 elected
    1:10:04 and
    1:10:04 obviously
    1:10:05 there
    1:10:05 are
    1:10:05 a
    1:10:05 number
    1:10:05 of
    1:10:06 philanthropists
    1:10:06 I
    1:10:06 think
    1:10:07 clearly
    1:10:07 his
    1:10:08 son
    1:10:08 Don
    1:10:08 Jr.
    1:10:08 has
    1:10:09 had
    1:10:09 a lot
    1:10:09 influence
    1:10:09 in
    1:10:09 who
    1:10:10 gets
    1:10:10 selected
    1:10:10 in
    1:10:10 these
    1:10:11 positions
    1:10:11 in
    1:10:11 the
    1:10:11 Pentagon
    1:10:12 and
    1:10:12 Tucker
    1:10:13 Colson
    1:10:13 has
    1:10:14 had
    1:10:14 a lot
    1:10:14 of
    1:10:14 influence
    1:10:15 so
    1:10:15 I
    1:10:15 think
    1:10:15 as
    1:10:15 you
    1:10:15 say
    1:10:16 he
    1:10:16 surrounds
    1:10:16 himself
    1:10:16 with
    1:10:17 people
    1:10:17 who
    1:10:18 have
    1:10:18 certain
    1:10:18 ideas
    1:10:19 ideologies
    1:10:20 policies
    1:10:21 the
    1:10:21 president
    1:10:21 makes
    1:10:21 his
    1:10:21 own
    1:10:21 decisions
    1:10:22 I
    1:10:22 just
    1:10:22 want
    1:10:22 to
    1:10:22 touch
    1:10:23 on
    1:10:23 one
    1:10:23 thing
    1:10:23 because
    1:10:23 I
    1:10:24 don’t
    1:10:24 want
    1:10:24 to
    1:10:24 leave
    1:10:25 this
    1:10:25 alone
    1:10:27 just
    1:10:27 out
    1:10:27 of
    1:10:27 respect
    1:10:28 for
    1:10:28 the
    1:10:29 victims
    1:10:29 of
    1:10:29 Iran
    1:10:30 backed
    1:10:31 terrorism
    1:10:31 and
    1:10:31 hostage
    1:10:32 taking
    1:10:39 hostages
    1:10:40 in
    1:10:40 79
    1:10:40 took
    1:10:40 our
    1:10:41 diplomats
    1:10:41 hostage
    1:10:43 Scott
    1:10:43 says
    1:10:44 83
    1:10:44 was
    1:10:44 really
    1:10:44 the
    1:10:45 only
    1:10:45 thing
    1:10:45 that
    1:10:45 happened
    1:10:46 and
    1:10:46 throws
    1:10:47 out
    1:10:47 a lot
    1:10:47 of
    1:10:48 information
    1:10:48 certainly
    1:10:49 some
    1:10:49 pretty
    1:10:50 breathtaking
    1:10:51 accusations
    1:10:51 that
    1:10:51 somehow
    1:10:52 the
    1:10:52 Israelis
    1:10:53 knew
    1:10:53 about
    1:10:53 this
    1:10:54 and
    1:10:54 didn’t
    1:10:54 tell
    1:10:54 the
    1:10:54 Americans
    1:10:55 and
    1:10:55 some
    1:10:56 Mossad
    1:10:56 officers
    1:10:57 accusation
    1:10:57 yeah
    1:11:00 I know
    1:11:00 exactly
    1:11:00 who he
    1:11:01 is
    1:11:01 and
    1:11:01 he’s
    1:11:01 been
    1:11:02 widely
    1:11:03 discredited
    1:11:04 and
    1:11:05 having
    1:11:05 an axe
    1:11:05 to
    1:11:05 grind
    1:11:06 with
    1:11:06 Mossad
    1:11:07 but
    1:11:07 anyway
    1:11:08 not only
    1:11:08 83
    1:11:08 but
    1:11:09 all
    1:11:09 through
    1:11:09 the
    1:11:09 90s
    1:11:09 the
    1:11:10 2000s
    1:11:11 2010s
    1:11:12 2020s
    1:11:14 there
    1:11:14 have
    1:11:14 been
    1:11:15 hundreds
    1:11:15 of
    1:11:16 attacks
    1:11:17 of
    1:11:19 assassinations
    1:11:19 of
    1:11:20 hostage
    1:11:20 taking
    1:11:21 there
    1:11:21 are
    1:11:22 thousands
    1:11:22 Americans
    1:11:23 who
    1:11:23 have
    1:11:23 been
    1:11:24 killed
    1:11:24 and
    1:11:25 maimed
    1:11:25 by
    1:11:25 the
    1:11:26 regime
    1:11:26 can
    1:11:26 you
    1:11:26 be
    1:11:27 specific
    1:11:27 what
    1:11:27 you’re
    1:11:27 talking
    1:11:28 about
    1:11:28 I
    1:11:28 can
    1:11:28 give
    1:11:28 you
    1:11:28 a
    1:11:29 whole
    1:11:29 list
    1:11:30 literally
    1:11:31 I’m
    1:11:31 happy
    1:11:31 to
    1:11:31 pull
    1:11:31 it
    1:11:32 up
    1:11:32 Lex
    1:11:32 I
    1:11:33 shared
    1:11:33 it
    1:11:33 with
    1:11:33 you
    1:11:33 it’s
    1:11:33 a
    1:11:34 long
    1:11:34 list
    1:11:34 of
    1:11:35 attacks
    1:11:35 all
    1:11:35 through
    1:11:35 the
    1:11:35 80s
    1:11:36 and
    1:11:36 90s
    1:11:37 everything
    1:11:38 from
    1:11:39 the
    1:11:40 Kobar
    1:11:41 Towers
    1:11:41 the
    1:11:42 Kobar
    1:11:42 Towers
    1:11:42 was
    1:11:43 Al-Qaeda
    1:11:43 that
    1:11:44 was
    1:11:44 Osama
    1:11:44 bin
    1:11:44 Laden
    1:11:45 and
    1:11:45 Khalid
    1:11:45 Sheikh
    1:11:45 Mohammed
    1:11:46 let
    1:11:46 him
    1:11:47 lay
    1:11:47 it
    1:11:47 out
    1:11:47 let
    1:11:48 hear
    1:11:48 him
    1:11:48 I
    1:11:49 got
    1:11:49 my
    1:11:49 pen
    1:11:49 in
    1:11:49 my
    1:11:49 hand
    1:11:50 go
    1:11:50 ahead
    1:11:50 and
    1:11:50 again
    1:11:51 according
    1:11:52 to
    1:11:52 US
    1:11:52 intelligence
    1:11:53 fightings
    1:11:53 it
    1:11:53 was
    1:11:54 actually
    1:11:54 Hezbollah
    1:11:55 that
    1:11:55 worked
    1:11:56 with
    1:11:56 Al-Qaeda
    1:11:57 trained
    1:11:57 Al-Qaeda
    1:11:58 in that
    1:11:58 attack
    1:11:58 in the
    1:11:59 Kobra
    1:11:59 Towers
    1:12:00 they
    1:12:00 were
    1:12:01 kidnapping
    1:12:01 our
    1:12:02 diplomats
    1:12:02 in
    1:12:03 Beirut
    1:12:04 they
    1:12:05 launched
    1:12:06 attacks
    1:12:07 against
    1:12:08 our
    1:12:09 soldiers
    1:12:09 while
    1:12:09 in
    1:12:10 Iraq
    1:12:10 the
    1:12:11 notion
    1:12:11 that
    1:12:13 well
    1:12:13 you
    1:12:14 say
    1:12:14 you
    1:12:14 debunked
    1:12:14 it
    1:12:14 you
    1:12:15 just
    1:12:15 made
    1:12:15 your
    1:12:15 claim
    1:12:17 but
    1:12:17 those
    1:12:17 were
    1:12:18 Iran
    1:12:18 backed
    1:12:19 militias
    1:12:21 backed
    1:12:21 by
    1:12:23 Qasem
    1:12:24 Soleimani
    1:12:24 who
    1:12:24 Scott
    1:12:25 referred
    1:12:25 to
    1:12:25 who
    1:12:25 was
    1:12:26 the
    1:12:26 commander
    1:12:26 of
    1:12:26 the
    1:12:27 RGC
    1:12:27 Quds
    1:12:27 force
    1:12:28 who
    1:12:28 supplied
    1:12:29 them
    1:12:29 with
    1:12:29 those
    1:12:30 IEDs
    1:12:30 or
    1:12:31 those
    1:12:31 EFPs
    1:12:32 actually
    1:12:32 those
    1:12:33 explosives
    1:12:33 well
    1:12:34 again
    1:12:34 this
    1:12:34 has
    1:12:35 been
    1:12:35 all
    1:12:36 confirmed
    1:12:36 by
    1:12:36 why
    1:12:37 don’t
    1:12:37 you
    1:12:37 search
    1:12:37 Alyssa
    1:12:38 Rubin
    1:12:38 New York
    1:12:38 Times
    1:12:39 EFP
    1:12:39 factory
    1:12:40 or
    1:12:41 you
    1:12:41 can
    1:12:41 look
    1:12:41 in
    1:12:41 the
    1:12:41 Christian
    1:12:42 science
    1:12:42 monitor
    1:12:43 Operation
    1:12:43 Eagle
    1:12:43 Claw
    1:12:44 where
    1:12:44 they
    1:12:45 found
    1:12:45 these
    1:12:45 things
    1:12:47 it’s
    1:12:47 easy
    1:12:47 to
    1:12:48 find
    1:12:48 in
    1:12:48 my
    1:12:48 book
    1:12:48 you
    1:12:48 can
    1:12:49 flip
    1:12:49 right
    1:12:49 to
    1:12:50 soda
    1:12:50 straws
    1:12:50 and
    1:12:51 EFPs
    1:12:51 and
    1:12:52 you
    1:12:52 see
    1:12:52 where
    1:12:52 I
    1:12:53 have
    1:12:53 all
    1:12:53 my
    1:12:54 citations
    1:12:54 for
    1:12:54 the
    1:12:55 solid
    1:12:55 dozen
    1:12:56 American
    1:12:57 newspaper
    1:12:57 reporters
    1:12:58 who
    1:12:58 were
    1:12:58 embedded
    1:12:58 with
    1:12:59 American
    1:12:59 soldiers
    1:12:59 who
    1:13:00 found
    1:13:00 these
    1:13:00 factories
    1:13:01 in
    1:13:01 Iraqi
    1:13:01 Shia
    1:13:02 stand
    1:13:02 okay
    1:13:03 with
    1:13:04 Iraqi
    1:13:05 Arabs
    1:13:06 working
    1:13:06 the
    1:13:06 machines
    1:13:07 not
    1:13:07 Iran
    1:13:08 so
    1:13:09 I’d like
    1:13:09 your
    1:13:09 viewers
    1:13:10 to
    1:13:10 google
    1:13:11 not
    1:13:11 just
    1:13:12 a
    1:13:12 couple
    1:13:12 of
    1:13:13 sources
    1:13:13 but
    1:13:14 actually
    1:13:14 google
    1:13:14 the
    1:13:15 US
    1:13:15 government
    1:13:15 reports
    1:13:15 that
    1:13:16 did
    1:13:16 a
    1:13:16 whole
    1:13:16 after
    1:13:17 action
    1:13:17 report
    1:13:17 on
    1:13:17 the
    1:13:18 Iraq
    1:13:18 war
    1:13:18 all
    1:13:18 the
    1:13:19 mistakes
    1:13:19 were
    1:13:19 made
    1:13:19 in
    1:13:19 the
    1:13:20 Iraq
    1:13:20 war
    1:13:20 and
    1:13:20 there
    1:13:20 were
    1:13:21 legion
    1:13:21 of
    1:13:22 mistakes
    1:13:22 made
    1:13:23 but
    1:13:23 it
    1:13:23 was
    1:13:23 very
    1:13:23 clear
    1:13:34 from
    1:13:35 Lebanese
    1:13:35 Hezbollah
    1:13:35 that
    1:13:36 got
    1:13:36 it
    1:13:36 from
    1:13:36 the
    1:13:36 IRA
    1:13:37 they
    1:13:37 didn’t
    1:13:37 even
    1:13:37 get
    1:13:38 the
    1:13:38 technique
    1:13:38 from
    1:13:38 the
    1:13:39 Iranians
    1:13:39 at
    1:13:39 all
    1:13:40 so
    1:13:40 Lebanese
    1:13:40 Hezbollah
    1:13:41 has
    1:13:43 been
    1:13:43 trained
    1:13:44 financed
    1:13:45 and
    1:13:46 supported
    1:13:46 by
    1:13:46 Iran
    1:13:47 for
    1:13:47 many
    1:13:48 years
    1:13:48 and
    1:13:48 that
    1:13:48 design
    1:13:49 did
    1:13:49 not
    1:13:49 come
    1:13:49 from
    1:13:50 Persia
    1:13:50 yeah
    1:13:50 so
    1:13:51 again
    1:13:52 I
    1:13:52 think
    1:13:52 we
    1:13:52 all
    1:13:52 admit
    1:13:52 Scott
    1:13:53 admits
    1:13:53 as
    1:13:53 well
    1:13:53 that
    1:13:54 Hezbollah
    1:13:54 was
    1:13:55 trained
    1:13:55 financed
    1:13:56 and
    1:13:57 supported
    1:13:57 by
    1:13:58 Iran
    1:13:58 Hezbollah
    1:13:58 has
    1:13:58 been
    1:13:59 responsible
    1:13:59 for
    1:13:59 many
    1:13:59 of
    1:13:59 these
    1:13:59 terrorist
    1:14:00 attacks
    1:14:00 Hezbollah
    1:14:00 come
    1:14:01 from
    1:14:01 it’s
    1:14:01 the
    1:14:01 reaction
    1:14:02 to
    1:14:02 the
    1:14:02 Israeli
    1:14:03 invasion
    1:14:03 of
    1:14:03 Lebanon
    1:14:03 where
    1:14:03 they
    1:14:03 went
    1:14:04 after
    1:14:04 the
    1:14:04 PLO
    1:14:04 and
    1:14:05 horribly
    1:14:05 mistreated
    1:14:06 the
    1:14:06 poor
    1:14:06 local
    1:14:06 Iraqi
    1:14:07 Shiites
    1:14:07 until
    1:14:08 they
    1:14:08 rose
    1:14:08 up
    1:14:08 and
    1:14:08 created
    1:14:09 these
    1:14:09 militias
    1:14:09 to
    1:14:09 fight
    1:14:10 in
    1:14:10 self-defense
    1:14:11 that’s
    1:14:11 where
    1:14:12 Hezbollah
    1:14:12 comes
    1:14:12 from
    1:14:12 Hezbollah
    1:14:12 was
    1:14:13 actually
    1:14:13 created
    1:14:13 by
    1:14:13 the
    1:14:14 RGC
    1:14:14 before
    1:14:14 the
    1:14:14 Israeli
    1:14:15 invasion
    1:14:16 C.I.A.’s
    1:14:17 bin Laden
    1:14:17 unit
    1:14:17 Michael
    1:14:18 Scheuer
    1:14:18 says
    1:14:18 it was
    1:14:19 Osama
    1:14:19 bin Laden
    1:14:20 and
    1:14:20 Khalid Sheikh
    1:14:21 Mohammed
    1:14:21 that did
    1:14:21 the
    1:14:22 Khobar
    1:14:22 Towers
    1:14:22 attack
    1:14:23 and
    1:14:23 who
    1:14:23 did
    1:14:23 they
    1:14:23 kill
    1:14:24 they
    1:14:24 killed
    1:14:24 19
    1:14:25 American
    1:14:25 airmen
    1:14:26 who
    1:14:26 were
    1:14:26 stationed
    1:14:27 there
    1:14:27 to
    1:14:27 bomb
    1:14:28 Iraq
    1:14:28 from
    1:14:28 bases
    1:14:29 Saudi
    1:14:29 Arabia
    1:14:30 under
    1:14:30 the
    1:14:30 Israeli
    1:14:31 insisted
    1:14:31 upon
    1:14:32 dual
    1:14:32 containment
    1:14:33 policy
    1:14:33 of
    1:14:34 Bill
    1:14:34 Clinton
    1:14:35 that
    1:14:35 came
    1:14:35 from
    1:14:36 Yitzhak
    1:14:36 Shamir
    1:14:36 who
    1:14:37 had
    1:14:37 sent
    1:14:38 his
    1:14:38 man
    1:14:38 Martin
    1:14:39 Indyk
    1:14:39 to
    1:14:39 work
    1:14:40 for
    1:14:40 Bill
    1:14:40 Clinton
    1:14:41 and
    1:14:41 push
    1:14:41 the
    1:14:42 dual
    1:14:42 containment
    1:14:43 policy
    1:14:43 is
    1:14:43 where
    1:14:43 that
    1:14:43 comes
    1:14:44 from
    1:14:44 the
    1:14:45 main
    1:14:45 reason
    1:14:45 Al-Qaeda
    1:14:46 turned
    1:14:46 against
    1:14:46 the
    1:14:46 United
    1:14:47 States
    1:14:47 and
    1:14:47 the
    1:14:48 Khobar
    1:14:48 Towers
    1:14:48 attack
    1:14:49 was
    1:14:49 bin Laden
    1:14:49 and
    1:14:49 he
    1:14:50 bragged
    1:14:50 about
    1:14:50 it
    1:14:51 himself
    1:14:51 to
    1:14:53 Abdel
    1:14:53 Bari
    1:14:53 Atwan
    1:14:54 the
    1:14:55 reporter
    1:14:55 from
    1:14:56 Al-Quds
    1:14:56 Al-Arabi
    1:14:57 in
    1:14:57 London
    1:14:58 and
    1:14:58 spent
    1:14:59 days
    1:14:59 with
    1:14:59 him
    1:14:59 and
    1:14:59 bragged
    1:15:00 all
    1:15:00 about
    1:15:00 it
    1:15:00 and
    1:15:00 blessed
    1:15:01 the
    1:15:01 martyrs
    1:15:01 and
    1:15:01 the
    1:15:01 rest
    1:15:02 of
    1:15:02 that
    1:15:02 and
    1:15:03 is
    1:15:04 widely
    1:15:05 discredited
    1:15:05 the
    1:15:05 claim
    1:15:05 that
    1:15:06 it
    1:15:06 was
    1:15:06 Iranian
    1:15:07 backed
    1:15:07 Shiite
    1:15:08 Hezbollah
    1:15:08 that
    1:15:08 did
    1:15:09 the
    1:15:09 Khobar
    1:15:09 Towers
    1:15:10 attack
    1:15:10 that
    1:15:10 was
    1:15:11 what
    1:15:11 the
    1:15:12 Saudi
    1:15:12 government
    1:15:13 told
    1:15:13 the
    1:15:13 U.S.
    1:15:13 In
    1:15:14 fact
    1:15:14 there’s
    1:15:14 a
    1:15:14 great
    1:15:14 documentary
    1:15:15 about
    1:15:15 John
    1:15:15 O’Neill
    1:15:15 who
    1:15:16 was
    1:15:16 the
    1:15:24 thing
    1:15:24 it
    1:15:25 was
    1:15:25 Al-Qaeda
    1:15:25 that
    1:15:26 did
    1:15:26 it
    1:15:26 and
    1:15:26 then
    1:15:26 Louis
    1:15:26 Free
    1:15:27 got
    1:15:27 all
    1:15:27 upset
    1:15:27 because
    1:15:28 he
    1:15:28 used
    1:15:28 the
    1:15:28 A
    1:15:29 word
    1:15:30 he’s
    1:15:30 a
    1:15:30 very
    1:15:31 conservative
    1:15:31 Catholic
    1:15:32 guy
    1:15:32 Louis
    1:15:32 Free
    1:15:33 and
    1:15:33 then
    1:15:33 refused
    1:15:34 to
    1:15:34 listen
    1:15:34 to
    1:15:34 another
    1:15:35 word
    1:15:35 from
    1:15:35 John
    1:15:35 O’Neill
    1:15:36 about
    1:15:36 it
    1:15:36 so
    1:15:36 what
    1:15:36 we
    1:15:36 know
    1:15:37 now
    1:15:37 from
    1:15:37 Scott
    1:15:38 because
    1:15:38 he’s
    1:15:38 given
    1:15:39 certainly
    1:15:39 a lot
    1:15:40 of
    1:15:40 context
    1:15:40 to
    1:15:41 how
    1:15:41 he
    1:15:41 actually
    1:15:41 sees
    1:15:42 things
    1:15:42 is
    1:15:43 here’s
    1:15:43 who
    1:15:44 lies
    1:15:44 to
    1:15:44 you
    1:15:44 and
    1:15:44 here’s
    1:15:45 doesn’t
    1:15:46 US
    1:15:46 government
    1:15:47 lies
    1:15:47 to
    1:15:47 you
    1:15:48 Israeli
    1:15:48 government
    1:15:49 lies
    1:15:49 to
    1:15:50 you
    1:15:50 the
    1:15:51 Israelis
    1:15:51 clearly
    1:15:52 lie
    1:15:52 to
    1:15:52 you
    1:15:53 mendacious
    1:15:53 bunch
    1:15:54 Saudis
    1:15:54 lie
    1:15:54 to
    1:15:55 you
    1:15:56 but
    1:15:56 you
    1:15:56 know
    1:15:56 who
    1:15:56 doesn’t
    1:15:57 lie
    1:15:57 to
    1:15:57 you
    1:15:57 actually
    1:15:58 Hezbollah
    1:15:58 doesn’t
    1:15:59 lie
    1:15:59 to
    1:15:59 you
    1:16:00 Al-Qaeda
    1:16:00 doesn’t
    1:16:00 lie
    1:16:00 to
    1:16:00 you
    1:16:00 I
    1:16:01 didn’t
    1:16:01 cite
    1:16:01 Al-Qaeda
    1:16:02 or
    1:16:02 I
    1:16:03 cite
    1:16:03 Osama
    1:16:03 himself
    1:16:05 I
    1:16:05 cited
    1:16:05 Michael
    1:16:06 Shoyer
    1:16:06 the
    1:16:06 chief
    1:16:06 of
    1:16:06 the
    1:16:07 CIA
    1:16:07 bin
    1:16:08 so
    1:16:08 make
    1:16:08 it
    1:16:09 clear
    1:16:09 here
    1:16:10 the
    1:16:10 Iranians
    1:16:11 saying
    1:16:11 Hezbollah
    1:16:12 the
    1:16:12 Iranians
    1:16:13 got
    1:16:13 straight up
    1:16:14 I hear
    1:16:14 you
    1:16:14 but
    1:16:14 you’re
    1:16:15 interrupting
    1:16:15 and
    1:16:16 like
    1:16:16 please
    1:16:16 just
    1:16:17 honestly
    1:16:17 it’s
    1:16:17 not
    1:16:17 about
    1:16:17 the
    1:16:18 content
    1:16:18 but
    1:16:18 like
    1:16:18 honestly
    1:16:19 how
    1:16:19 come
    1:16:19 you’re
    1:16:19 not
    1:16:19 saying
    1:16:19 him
    1:16:20 isn’t
    1:16:20 that
    1:16:20 weird
    1:16:20 that
    1:16:20 you
    1:16:20 just
    1:16:21 said
    1:16:21 he
    1:16:21 trusts
    1:16:22 Hezbollah
    1:16:22 even
    1:16:22 though
    1:16:22 he
    1:16:22 didn’t
    1:16:23 say
    1:16:23 anything
    1:16:23 about
    1:16:23 trusting
    1:16:24 Hezbollah
    1:16:24 I’m
    1:16:24 not
    1:16:25 calling
    1:16:25 out
    1:16:25 the
    1:16:25 content
    1:16:26 I’m
    1:16:26 calling
    1:16:26 out
    1:16:26 the
    1:16:27 interruptions
    1:16:27 He
    1:16:27 hasn’t
    1:16:27 interrupted
    1:16:28 you
    1:16:28 it’s
    1:16:28 great
    1:16:29 I’m
    1:16:29 loving
    1:16:30 the
    1:16:30 back
    1:16:30 and
    1:16:30 forth
    1:16:30 it’s
    1:16:30 great
    1:16:31 but
    1:16:31 just
    1:16:32 a
    1:16:32 little
    1:16:32 less
    1:16:33 talking
    1:16:33 over
    1:16:33 each
    1:16:33 other
    1:16:33 that’s
    1:16:33 all
    1:16:34 yeah
    1:16:34 so
    1:16:35 I mean
    1:16:35 again
    1:16:35 the
    1:16:36 sort
    1:16:36 of
    1:16:36 view
    1:16:36 of
    1:16:36 the
    1:16:37 regime
    1:16:37 in
    1:16:37 Iran
    1:16:37 and
    1:16:38 I
    1:16:38 think
    1:16:38 Scott
    1:16:38 wisely
    1:16:39 said
    1:16:39 at
    1:16:39 the
    1:16:39 beginning
    1:16:40 of
    1:16:40 this
    1:16:40 discussion
    1:16:41 like
    1:16:41 what
    1:16:42 did
    1:16:42 you
    1:16:42 say
    1:16:42 I
    1:16:42 don’t
    1:16:42 have
    1:16:43 any
    1:16:44 love
    1:16:44 for
    1:16:44 the
    1:16:44 Ayatollah
    1:16:45 I’m
    1:16:45 a
    1:16:45 Texan
    1:16:45 I
    1:16:45 don’t
    1:16:46 have
    1:16:46 any
    1:16:46 love
    1:16:46 for
    1:16:46 the
    1:16:46 Ayatollah
    1:16:47 in
    1:16:47 Iran
    1:16:48 and
    1:16:48 yet
    1:16:48 despite
    1:16:48 the
    1:16:49 fact
    1:16:49 Scott
    1:16:49 doesn’t
    1:16:50 have
    1:16:50 love
    1:16:50 for
    1:16:50 the
    1:16:50 Ayatollah
    1:16:50 and
    1:16:51 I
    1:16:52 agree
    1:16:53 with
    1:16:53 him
    1:16:53 and
    1:16:53 I
    1:16:53 think
    1:16:54 he’s
    1:16:54 being
    1:16:54 sincere
    1:16:55 in
    1:16:56 every
    1:16:56 discussion
    1:16:56 that
    1:16:57 we’ve
    1:16:57 had
    1:16:57 on
    1:16:57 every
    1:16:58 topic
    1:16:58 it’s
    1:16:58 always
    1:16:59 about
    1:16:59 everyone’s
    1:17:00 lying
    1:17:00 except
    1:17:00 the
    1:17:01 Ayatollah
    1:17:01 in
    1:17:01 Iran
    1:17:01 he’s
    1:17:02 not
    1:17:02 lying
    1:17:02 about
    1:17:02 having
    1:17:02 a
    1:17:03 nuclear
    1:17:03 weapons
    1:17:03 program
    1:17:05 he
    1:17:05 didn’t
    1:17:05 actually
    1:17:06 support
    1:17:06 all of
    1:17:06 these
    1:17:07 terrorist
    1:17:07 organizations
    1:17:08 that
    1:17:08 he
    1:17:08 founded
    1:17:09 financed
    1:17:09 and
    1:17:10 supported
    1:17:10 to
    1:17:10 kill
    1:17:10 Americans
    1:17:11 that
    1:17:11 it
    1:17:11 wasn’t
    1:17:12 the
    1:17:12 Ayatollah
    1:17:12 in
    1:17:12 Iran
    1:17:13 he’s
    1:17:14 he’s
    1:17:14 not
    1:17:15 lying
    1:17:15 about
    1:17:16 his
    1:17:18 deception
    1:17:18 campaign
    1:17:19 against
    1:17:19 the
    1:17:19 United
    1:17:20 States
    1:17:21 he’s
    1:17:21 not
    1:17:21 lying
    1:17:22 about
    1:17:23 negotiations
    1:17:24 with
    1:17:24 the
    1:17:24 Americans
    1:17:24 it’s
    1:17:25 Americans
    1:17:25 fault
    1:17:26 all
    1:17:26 the
    1:17:26 time
    1:17:27 so
    1:17:27 he
    1:17:27 he’s
    1:17:27 presented
    1:17:28 all
    1:17:29 the
    1:17:29 time
    1:17:29 in
    1:17:29 Scott’s
    1:17:30 conception
    1:17:30 here
    1:17:31 as
    1:17:31 a
    1:17:31 sincere
    1:17:32 actor
    1:17:32 who
    1:17:33 doesn’t
    1:17:33 want
    1:17:33 to
    1:17:33 develop
    1:17:33 nuclear
    1:17:34 weapons
    1:17:35 who
    1:17:35 doesn’t
    1:17:35 actually
    1:17:36 want
    1:17:38 he’s
    1:17:38 just
    1:17:38 always
    1:17:38 a
    1:17:39 victim
    1:17:39 of
    1:17:40 American
    1:17:40 and
    1:17:40 Israeli
    1:17:41 aggression
    1:17:41 I
    1:17:41 think
    1:17:41 it’s
    1:17:41 an
    1:17:42 interesting
    1:17:42 conception
    1:17:42 I think
    1:17:43 let’s
    1:17:43 talk
    1:17:43 about
    1:17:43 it
    1:17:44 and
    1:17:44 I
    1:17:44 mean
    1:17:45 I’m
    1:17:45 fascinated
    1:17:46 by the
    1:17:46 conception
    1:17:46 because
    1:17:48 it’s
    1:17:48 very
    1:17:48 contrary
    1:17:49 to
    1:17:49 mine
    1:17:50 obviously
    1:17:50 it’s
    1:17:50 very
    1:17:51 contrary
    1:17:51 to
    1:17:51 I
    1:17:51 think
    1:17:52 decades
    1:17:53 of
    1:17:53 overwhelming
    1:17:54 evidence
    1:17:54 that the
    1:17:55 Islamic
    1:17:55 Republic
    1:17:55 has
    1:17:55 been
    1:17:56 war
    1:17:56 with
    1:17:56 the
    1:17:56 United
    1:17:56 States
    1:17:56 since
    1:17:57 1979
    1:17:58 and
    1:17:58 you
    1:17:58 know
    1:17:59 I
    1:17:59 don’t
    1:18:00 take
    1:18:00 too
    1:18:00 much
    1:18:00 stock
    1:18:01 in
    1:18:01 what
    1:18:01 people
    1:18:01 say
    1:18:07 it
    1:18:07 could
    1:18:08 be
    1:18:08 just
    1:18:08 propaganda
    1:18:09 but
    1:18:09 when
    1:18:09 it’s
    1:18:09 actually
    1:18:11 operationalized
    1:18:12 then
    1:18:12 you
    1:18:12 start
    1:18:12 to
    1:18:13 ask
    1:18:13 well
    1:18:13 maybe
    1:18:13 it’s
    1:18:13 not
    1:18:14 just
    1:18:15 propaganda
    1:18:15 maybe
    1:18:16 it’s
    1:18:16 intention
    1:18:18 operationalized
    1:18:18 into
    1:18:19 capabilities
    1:18:19 you know
    1:18:20 what we’re
    1:18:20 forgetting
    1:18:21 here
    1:18:21 and again
    1:18:21 it’s
    1:18:22 this
    1:18:22 causal
    1:18:23 relationship
    1:18:23 it’s
    1:18:23 we
    1:18:24 aggress
    1:18:24 against
    1:18:25 Iran
    1:18:25 and
    1:18:25 the
    1:18:25 Israelis
    1:18:26 aggress
    1:18:26 against
    1:18:27 Iran
    1:18:27 and
    1:18:27 Iran
    1:18:27 is
    1:18:28 always
    1:18:28 reacting
    1:18:29 let’s
    1:18:29 give
    1:18:30 the
    1:18:30 Iranians
    1:18:30 their
    1:18:31 due
    1:18:31 because
    1:18:32 Khomeini
    1:18:32 made it
    1:18:32 very
    1:18:33 clear
    1:18:33 when
    1:18:33 he
    1:18:33 established
    1:18:34 the
    1:18:34 Islamic
    1:18:34 Republic
    1:18:35 that
    1:18:35 there
    1:18:35 will
    1:18:35 be
    1:18:36 a
    1:18:36 revolutionary
    1:18:37 and
    1:18:38 expansionist
    1:18:39 regime
    1:18:39 and
    1:18:39 they
    1:18:40 will
    1:18:40 expand
    1:18:40 their
    1:18:41 power
    1:18:41 through
    1:18:41 the
    1:18:41 Middle
    1:18:42 East
    1:18:42 and
    1:18:42 so
    1:18:42 he
    1:18:42 built
    1:18:43 and
    1:18:43 to
    1:18:43 his
    1:18:44 credit
    1:18:44 was
    1:18:44 very
    1:18:45 successful
    1:18:45 until
    1:18:45 October
    1:18:46 7th
    1:18:46 this
    1:18:47 axis
    1:18:47 of
    1:18:47 resistance
    1:18:48 as
    1:18:48 he
    1:18:48 calls
    1:18:48 it
    1:18:49 which
    1:18:49 are
    1:18:49 these
    1:18:49 terror
    1:18:50 proxy
    1:18:50 armies
    1:18:51 Hezbollah
    1:18:52 Hamas
    1:18:52 Palestinian
    1:18:52 Islamic
    1:18:53 Jihad
    1:18:53 the
    1:18:54 Iraqi
    1:18:54 Shiite
    1:18:55 militias
    1:18:55 the
    1:18:55 Houthis
    1:18:56 in
    1:18:56 Yemen
    1:18:57 and
    1:18:58 certainly
    1:18:58 supporting
    1:18:58 the
    1:18:59 Assad
    1:18:59 regime
    1:18:59 in
    1:18:59 Syria
    1:19:00 he
    1:19:00 built
    1:19:00 a
    1:19:01 very
    1:19:03 impressive
    1:19:03 and
    1:19:03 deadly
    1:19:04 axis
    1:19:04 that
    1:19:05 he
    1:19:05 turned
    1:19:05 against
    1:19:05 the
    1:19:06 United
    1:19:06 States
    1:19:06 and
    1:19:06 against
    1:19:07 Israel
    1:19:07 which
    1:19:08 saw
    1:19:08 its
    1:19:08 culmination
    1:19:08 on
    1:19:09 October
    1:19:09 7th
    1:19:09 I
    1:19:09 think
    1:19:10 after
    1:19:10 October
    1:19:11 7th
    1:19:11 that
    1:19:12 was
    1:19:12 a
    1:19:12 huge
    1:19:13 miscalculation
    1:19:13 for
    1:19:14 Khamenei
    1:19:14 and we
    1:19:14 seen
    1:19:14 the
    1:19:15 results
    1:19:15 of
    1:19:15 what’s
    1:19:15 happened
    1:19:15 to
    1:19:16 his
    1:19:16 axis
    1:19:16 of
    1:19:17 resistance
    1:19:17 through
    1:19:18 quite
    1:19:18 devastating
    1:19:19 Israeli
    1:19:20 military
    1:19:20 capabilities
    1:19:21 over
    1:19:21 the
    1:19:21 past
    1:19:22 number
    1:19:22 of
    1:19:22 months
    1:19:23 but
    1:19:23 he
    1:19:23 has
    1:19:24 an
    1:19:24 ideology
    1:19:24 and
    1:19:25 I
    1:19:25 think
    1:19:25 where
    1:19:25 I
    1:19:26 agree
    1:19:26 with
    1:19:26 Scott
    1:19:27 is
    1:19:27 I’m
    1:19:28 not
    1:19:28 sure
    1:19:28 if
    1:19:29 Khamenei
    1:19:29 would
    1:19:29 actually
    1:19:29 use
    1:19:29 a
    1:19:30 nuclear
    1:19:30 weapon
    1:19:30 against
    1:19:31 Israel
    1:19:31 the
    1:19:31 United
    1:19:32 States
    1:19:32 because
    1:19:32 I
    1:19:32 don’t
    1:19:32 think
    1:19:33 Khamenei
    1:19:33 is
    1:19:34 suicidal
    1:19:35 but
    1:19:35 I
    1:19:35 think
    1:19:35 what
    1:19:35 Khamenei
    1:19:36 wants
    1:19:36 is
    1:19:37 a
    1:19:37 nuclear
    1:19:38 weapon
    1:19:39 as
    1:19:39 a
    1:19:39 backstop
    1:19:40 for
    1:19:40 his
    1:19:40 conventional
    1:19:41 power
    1:19:42 right
    1:19:42 it’s
    1:19:42 very
    1:19:43 much
    1:19:43 the
    1:19:44 Kim
    1:19:49 what
    1:19:49 I’m
    1:19:49 actually
    1:19:49 going
    1:19:49 to
    1:19:50 do
    1:19:50 is
    1:19:50 threaten
    1:19:50 South
    1:19:51 Korea
    1:19:51 with
    1:19:52 having
    1:19:52 massive
    1:19:53 conventional
    1:19:53 capabilities
    1:19:53 on
    1:19:54 the
    1:19:54 DMZ
    1:19:54 that
    1:19:54 I
    1:19:55 could
    1:19:55 take
    1:19:55 South
    1:19:55 Korea
    1:19:55 in
    1:19:56 a
    1:19:56 week
    1:19:57 so
    1:19:57 you
    1:19:57 the
    1:19:58 United
    1:19:58 States
    1:19:58 and
    1:19:58 South
    1:19:59 Korea
    1:19:59 have
    1:19:59 no
    1:20:00 military
    1:20:00 option
    1:20:00 that’s
    1:20:01 Khamenei’s
    1:20:01 view
    1:20:01 he
    1:20:02 can
    1:20:02 actually
    1:20:03 building up
    1:20:03 this
    1:20:04 massive
    1:20:04 ballistic
    1:20:05 missile
    1:20:05 arsenal
    1:20:06 that
    1:20:06 he’s
    1:20:06 unleashed
    1:20:06 in the
    1:20:07 past
    1:20:07 12
    1:20:08 days
    1:20:08 that
    1:20:09 according
    1:20:09 to
    1:20:10 again
    1:20:10 the
    1:20:10 US
    1:20:11 and
    1:20:11 Israel
    1:20:11 was
    1:20:12 going
    1:20:12 to
    1:20:12 go
    1:20:12 from
    1:20:13 2,000
    1:20:13 to
    1:20:14 6,000
    1:20:14 to
    1:20:15 20,000
    1:20:16 that
    1:20:16 from
    1:20:16 Khamenei’s
    1:20:17 perspective
    1:20:17 he didn’t
    1:20:17 need to
    1:20:18 drop a
    1:20:18 nuclear
    1:20:19 bomb
    1:20:19 on
    1:20:20 Tel Aviv
    1:20:20 what
    1:20:20 he
    1:20:20 needed
    1:20:21 to
    1:20:21 do
    1:20:21 was
    1:20:21 use
    1:20:21 the
    1:20:22 threat
    1:20:22 of
    1:20:22 nuclear
    1:20:23 escalation
    1:20:23 in
    1:20:24 order
    1:20:24 to
    1:20:24 use
    1:20:24 his
    1:20:25 conventional
    1:20:25 capabilities
    1:20:26 his
    1:20:26 missiles
    1:20:27 to
    1:20:27 destroy
    1:20:28 Tel Aviv
    1:20:28 and
    1:20:28 you’ve
    1:20:29 already
    1:20:29 seen
    1:20:29 the
    1:20:29 damage
    1:20:30 from
    1:20:30 just
    1:20:31 a
    1:20:31 few
    1:20:32 dozen
    1:20:33 ballistic
    1:20:33 missiles
    1:20:33 getting
    1:20:34 through
    1:20:34 the
    1:20:34 kind
    1:20:34 of
    1:20:35 damage
    1:20:35 that
    1:20:35 he’s
    1:20:35 wrought
    1:20:35 on
    1:20:36 Tel Aviv
    1:20:36 already
    1:20:37 that
    1:20:37 is
    1:20:37 the
    1:20:38 conception
    1:20:38 that
    1:20:38 Khamenei
    1:20:39 has
    1:20:39 it’s
    1:20:39 a
    1:20:39 revolutionary
    1:20:40 regime
    1:20:40 it
    1:20:41 aggresses
    1:20:41 and
    1:20:41 I
    1:20:42 do
    1:20:42 think
    1:20:42 it’s
    1:20:42 interesting
    1:20:42 and
    1:20:43 I
    1:20:43 think
    1:20:43 we
    1:20:43 should
    1:20:43 talk
    1:20:43 about
    1:20:44 it
    1:20:44 actually
    1:20:45 that’s
    1:20:45 a
    1:20:45 good
    1:20:45 cue
    1:20:46 let’s
    1:20:46 take
    1:20:47 a
    1:20:47 bath
    1:20:47 and
    1:20:47 break
    1:20:49 okay
    1:20:49 we
    1:20:49 took
    1:20:50 a
    1:20:50 quick
    1:20:50 break
    1:20:50 and
    1:20:51 now
    1:20:51 Scott
    1:20:52 yeah
    1:20:52 okay
    1:20:53 so
    1:20:53 a few
    1:20:54 things
    1:20:54 there
    1:20:54 first
    1:20:54 of
    1:20:55 all
    1:20:56 on
    1:20:56 Ahmad
    1:20:56 the
    1:20:57 pre
    1:20:58 2003
    1:20:59 nuclear
    1:20:59 weapons
    1:21:00 research
    1:21:01 the
    1:21:02 CIA
    1:21:03 estimate
    1:21:03 in
    1:21:04 2007
    1:21:05 concluded
    1:21:05 that
    1:21:05 all
    1:21:05 research
    1:21:06 had
    1:21:06 stopped
    1:21:06 in
    1:21:07 2003
    1:21:07 and
    1:21:08 Seymour
    1:21:08 Hirsch
    1:21:08 reported
    1:21:09 that
    1:21:09 the
    1:21:09 reasoning
    1:21:10 behind
    1:21:10 that
    1:21:11 was
    1:21:12 mainly
    1:21:12 that
    1:21:13 America
    1:21:13 had
    1:21:13 gotten
    1:21:13 rid
    1:21:13 of
    1:21:14 Saddam
    1:21:14 Hussein
    1:21:14 for
    1:21:14 them
    1:21:15 now
    1:21:15 in
    1:21:16 Gareth
    1:21:16 Porter’s
    1:21:16 book
    1:21:17 Manufactured
    1:21:17 Crisis
    1:21:18 he
    1:21:18 shows
    1:21:19 that
    1:21:19 the
    1:21:19 major
    1:21:20 conclusion
    1:21:21 that
    1:21:21 the
    1:21:22 DIA
    1:21:23 had
    1:21:23 made
    1:21:24 that
    1:21:24 the
    1:21:25 Iranians
    1:21:25 were
    1:21:26 researching
    1:21:26 nuclear
    1:21:26 weapons
    1:21:27 was
    1:21:27 based
    1:21:27 on
    1:21:27 some
    1:21:28 invoices
    1:21:28 that
    1:21:28 they
    1:21:29 had
    1:21:29 intercepted
    1:21:29 for
    1:21:29 some
    1:21:30 dual
    1:21:30 use
    1:21:31 materials
    1:21:31 some
    1:21:32 specialty
    1:21:32 magnets
    1:21:33 and
    1:21:33 things
    1:21:33 that
    1:21:34 they
    1:21:34 thought
    1:21:34 boy
    1:21:34 this
    1:21:35 looks
    1:21:35 like
    1:21:35 this
    1:21:35 could
    1:21:35 be
    1:21:35 part
    1:21:36 of
    1:21:37 a
    1:21:38 weaponization
    1:21:38 program
    1:21:38 a secret
    1:21:39 program
    1:21:39 here
    1:21:40 and
    1:21:40 you know
    1:21:40 Gareth
    1:21:41 Porter
    1:21:41 who’s
    1:21:42 a really
    1:21:42 great
    1:21:42 critic
    1:21:42 of
    1:21:42 all
    1:21:43 of
    1:21:43 these
    1:21:43 policies
    1:21:43 and
    1:21:44 claims
    1:21:45 says
    1:21:45 hey
    1:21:45 this
    1:21:45 was
    1:21:45 a
    1:21:46 good
    1:21:46 faith
    1:21:47 misunderstanding
    1:21:47 by
    1:21:48 DIA
    1:21:48 they were
    1:21:48 doing
    1:21:49 their job
    1:21:50 but it
    1:21:50 turned out
    1:21:50 the
    1:21:51 IAEA
    1:21:51 later
    1:21:51 when
    1:21:52 America
    1:21:52 gave
    1:21:52 them
    1:21:52 that
    1:21:53 information
    1:21:53 the
    1:21:54 IAEA
    1:21:54 went
    1:21:54 and
    1:21:54 verified
    1:21:55 oh
    1:21:55 there’s
    1:21:55 the
    1:21:55 magnet
    1:21:56 and
    1:21:56 there’s
    1:21:56 this
    1:21:56 and
    1:21:57 there’s
    1:21:57 that
    1:21:57 and
    1:21:57 all
    1:21:57 those
    1:21:57 dual
    1:21:58 use
    1:21:58 items
    1:21:58 actually
    1:21:58 were
    1:21:59 being
    1:21:59 used
    1:21:59 for
    1:22:00 civilian
    1:22:00 purposes
    1:22:01 and
    1:22:01 so
    1:22:01 then
    1:22:02 as
    1:22:02 Gareth
    1:22:03 writes
    1:22:03 in his
    1:22:03 book
    1:22:04 the
    1:22:20 there
    1:22:20 ever
    1:22:21 was
    1:22:21 a
    1:22:21 nuclear
    1:22:22 weapons
    1:22:22 research
    1:22:23 program
    1:22:24 in
    1:22:24 the
    1:22:24 country
    1:22:25 before
    1:22:25 2003
    1:22:26 was
    1:22:26 the
    1:22:26 smoking
    1:22:27 laptop
    1:22:28 and
    1:22:28 I’m
    1:22:28 sorry
    1:22:28 I
    1:22:28 think
    1:22:28 I
    1:22:29 misspoke
    1:22:29 earlier
    1:22:29 when I
    1:22:29 said
    1:22:30 that
    1:22:30 the
    1:22:30 laptop
    1:22:31 was
    1:22:31 in
    1:22:32 2005
    1:22:32 that
    1:22:32 was
    1:22:33 just
    1:22:33 the
    1:22:33 Washington
    1:22:33 Post
    1:22:34 story
    1:22:34 that
    1:22:34 had
    1:22:34 a
    1:22:34 bunch
    1:22:34 of
    1:22:34 stuff
    1:22:35 about
    1:22:35 it
    1:22:35 that
    1:22:35 was
    1:22:35 in
    1:22:36 2003
    1:22:37 as
    1:22:37 well
    1:22:37 or
    1:22:37 2004
    1:22:38 possibly
    1:22:39 so
    1:22:39 this
    1:22:39 was
    1:22:40 why
    1:22:41 the
    1:22:41 but
    1:22:41 it
    1:22:42 was
    1:22:42 still
    1:22:42 all
    1:22:43 again
    1:22:43 forged
    1:22:44 by
    1:22:50 had
    1:22:50 nothing
    1:22:50 in
    1:22:50 it
    1:22:51 at
    1:22:52 least
    1:22:52 the
    1:22:52 accusations
    1:22:52 and
    1:22:53 it
    1:22:53 weren’t
    1:22:53 past
    1:22:53 2003
    1:22:54 and
    1:22:54 so
    1:22:55 there’s
    1:22:56 really
    1:22:56 no
    1:22:56 reason
    1:22:56 to
    1:22:57 believe
    1:22:57 that
    1:22:57 there
    1:22:57 was
    1:22:58 actually
    1:22:58 a
    1:22:58 nuclear
    1:22:58 weapons
    1:22:59 research
    1:22:59 program
    1:23:00 even
    1:23:00 before
    1:23:01 2003
    1:23:01 which
    1:23:02 then
    1:23:02 again
    1:23:03 the
    1:23:03 National
    1:23:03 Intelligence
    1:23:04 Council
    1:23:04 says
    1:23:05 ended
    1:23:05 in
    1:23:06 2003
    1:23:06 and
    1:23:07 hasn’t
    1:23:07 been
    1:23:07 restarted
    1:23:07 since
    1:23:08 then
    1:23:08 Can I ask you a question
    1:23:09 not a comment by me
    1:23:10 but a question
    1:23:11 just your perspective
    1:23:11 so just so I
    1:23:12 understand
    1:23:12 this
    1:23:12 so
    1:23:12 the
    1:23:13 nuclear
    1:23:14 archive
    1:23:14 this
    1:23:15 massive
    1:23:15 archive
    1:23:16 that
    1:23:16 the
    1:23:16 Israelis
    1:23:17 were able
    1:23:17 to
    1:23:17 take
    1:23:17 out
    1:23:17 of
    1:23:18 Tehran
    1:23:19 bring
    1:23:19 to
    1:23:19 the
    1:23:19 United
    1:23:20 States
    1:23:20 bring
    1:23:20 to
    1:23:20 the
    1:23:21 IAEA
    1:23:21 which
    1:23:22 is
    1:23:22 very
    1:23:23 detailed
    1:23:24 blueprints
    1:23:24 it’s
    1:23:25 just the
    1:23:25 alleged
    1:23:25 studies
    1:23:26 documents
    1:23:26 again
    1:23:26 it’s
    1:23:26 the
    1:23:26 same
    1:23:27 stuff
    1:23:27 from
    1:23:27 the
    1:23:27 smoking
    1:23:28 laptop
    1:23:28 yeah
    1:23:28 so
    1:23:28 let
    1:23:28 me
    1:23:29 just
    1:23:29 ask
    1:23:29 you
    1:23:29 because
    1:23:30 it’s
    1:23:30 huge
    1:23:30 and
    1:23:31 it’s
    1:23:31 very
    1:23:31 detailed
    1:23:31 and
    1:23:32 it
    1:23:32 shows
    1:23:32 clearly
    1:23:33 that
    1:23:33 Iran
    1:23:33 had
    1:23:33 an
    1:23:34 active
    1:23:42 are you
    1:23:42 suggesting
    1:23:42 that
    1:23:43 that’s
    1:23:43 all
    1:23:43 been
    1:23:43 forged
    1:23:44 by
    1:23:45 Israel
    1:23:46 yes
    1:23:46 nothing
    1:23:46 in the
    1:23:47 smoking
    1:23:47 laptop
    1:23:47 held up
    1:23:48 not
    1:23:48 the
    1:23:48 laptop
    1:23:49 but
    1:23:49 this
    1:23:50 entire
    1:23:51 archive
    1:23:51 that
    1:23:51 they
    1:23:51 pulled
    1:23:51 out
    1:23:52 with
    1:23:53 you’re
    1:23:53 thinking
    1:23:53 of
    1:23:53 like
    1:23:54 blueprints
    1:23:55 photo op
    1:23:55 with all
    1:23:55 the
    1:23:56 documents
    1:23:58 behind
    1:23:58 them
    1:23:58 I’ve
    1:23:58 seen
    1:23:58 it
    1:23:59 I’ve
    1:23:59 seen
    1:23:59 many
    1:24:00 of
    1:24:00 the
    1:24:00 documents
    1:24:01 there’s
    1:24:01 thousands
    1:24:01 of
    1:24:02 pages
    1:24:02 I’m
    1:24:03 asking
    1:24:03 this
    1:24:03 is
    1:24:03 not
    1:24:03 what
    1:24:03 I’m
    1:24:04 claiming
    1:24:05 is
    1:24:05 that
    1:24:05 all
    1:24:05 forged
    1:24:06 by
    1:24:06 Israel
    1:24:06 is
    1:24:06 that
    1:24:07 not
    1:24:07 all
    1:24:07 about
    1:24:07 the
    1:24:08 uranium
    1:24:09 tetrafluoride
    1:24:09 and
    1:24:09 the
    1:24:09 warhead
    1:24:09 that
    1:24:10 David
    1:24:10 Albright
    1:24:11 debunked
    1:24:11 and
    1:24:12 all
    1:24:12 the
    1:24:12 same
    1:24:12 claims
    1:24:13 that
    1:24:13 were
    1:24:13 in
    1:24:13 the
    1:24:13 smoking
    1:24:14 laptop
    1:24:14 from
    1:24:14 the
    1:24:14 Bush
    1:24:15 years
    1:24:15 David
    1:24:15 David
    1:24:16 Albright
    1:24:17 actually wrote
    1:24:17 an entire
    1:24:18 book
    1:24:18 it’s
    1:24:18 a
    1:24:18 very
    1:24:18 detailed
    1:24:19 book
    1:24:19 your
    1:24:19 listeners
    1:24:20 should
    1:24:20 Google
    1:24:20 it’s
    1:24:21 David
    1:24:21 Albright
    1:24:22 and
    1:24:22 the
    1:24:22 archive
    1:24:23 where
    1:24:23 he
    1:24:23 goes
    1:24:24 in
    1:24:24 he
    1:24:24 went
    1:24:24 in
    1:24:25 detail
    1:24:25 and
    1:24:26 he
    1:24:27 confirms
    1:24:27 the
    1:24:28 information
    1:24:28 in
    1:24:28 that
    1:24:29 archive
    1:24:29 that
    1:24:29 Iran
    1:24:30 had
    1:24:30 an
    1:24:30 active
    1:24:31 program
    1:24:31 under
    1:24:32 something
    1:24:32 called
    1:24:32 Ahmad
    1:24:33 to
    1:24:33 develop
    1:24:34 five
    1:24:34 atomic
    1:24:35 weapons
    1:24:35 so
    1:24:35 again
    1:24:36 you
    1:24:36 and
    1:24:36 I
    1:24:36 can
    1:24:37 debate
    1:24:37 this
    1:24:37 all
    1:24:37 day
    1:24:38 this
    1:24:38 would
    1:24:38 have
    1:24:38 been
    1:24:38 before
    1:24:39 Natanz
    1:24:39 was
    1:24:39 even
    1:24:40 dug
    1:24:40 and
    1:24:40 before
    1:24:40 single
    1:24:41 centrifuge
    1:24:41 spinning
    1:24:42 right
    1:24:42 I’m
    1:24:42 just
    1:24:43 making
    1:24:43 sure
    1:24:43 everybody
    1:24:43 understands
    1:24:44 assuming
    1:24:44 that
    1:24:44 was
    1:24:44 true
    1:24:45 we’re
    1:24:45 talking
    1:24:45 about
    1:24:45 a
    1:24:45 piece
    1:24:45 of
    1:24:45 paper
    1:24:46 it’s
    1:24:46 not
    1:24:46 a
    1:24:46 piece
    1:24:47 of
    1:24:47 paper
    1:24:47 it’s
    1:24:47 a
    1:24:47 massive
    1:24:48 archive
    1:24:48 I’m
    1:24:49 just
    1:24:49 asking
    1:24:49 the
    1:24:49 question
    1:24:50 you
    1:24:50 believe
    1:24:51 Mossad
    1:24:51 fabricated
    1:24:52 all
    1:24:52 of
    1:24:52 this
    1:24:52 as
    1:24:53 a
    1:24:53 lie
    1:24:53 to
    1:24:54 deceive
    1:24:54 the
    1:24:54 United
    1:24:55 States
    1:24:55 the
    1:24:55 IAEA
    1:24:56 and
    1:24:56 international
    1:24:56 community
    1:24:57 that’s
    1:24:57 just
    1:24:57 my
    1:24:57 question
    1:24:58 my
    1:24:59 understanding
    1:24:59 is that
    1:24:59 there’s
    1:25:00 nothing
    1:25:00 significant
    1:25:01 in
    1:25:01 the
    1:25:02 2018
    1:25:02 archive
    1:25:03 that
    1:25:03 was
    1:25:03 not
    1:25:04 already
    1:25:04 in
    1:25:05 the
    1:25:06 debunked
    1:25:06 claims
    1:25:06 from
    1:25:06 the
    1:25:07 laptop
    1:25:07 but
    1:25:07 my
    1:25:08 question
    1:25:08 is
    1:25:09 is
    1:25:09 not
    1:25:10 that
    1:25:10 it’s
    1:25:11 debunked
    1:25:11 because
    1:25:11 we
    1:25:11 can
    1:25:11 argue
    1:25:11 about
    1:25:12 whether
    1:25:12 it’s
    1:25:12 debunked
    1:25:12 or not
    1:25:13 but
    1:25:13 are
    1:25:13 you
    1:25:14 saying
    1:25:14 Mossad
    1:25:15 fabricated
    1:25:25 where
    1:25:25 did
    1:25:25 the
    1:25:25 M.E.K.
    1:25:27 got it
    1:25:27 from
    1:25:27 the
    1:25:28 Israelis
    1:25:28 Scott
    1:25:28 I’m not
    1:25:28 asking
    1:25:28 about
    1:25:28 the
    1:25:29 laptop
    1:25:29 I’m
    1:25:29 asking
    1:25:30 about
    1:25:30 this
    1:25:31 huge
    1:25:31 archive
    1:25:31 that
    1:25:31 was
    1:25:32 sitting
    1:25:32 in
    1:25:32 a
    1:25:32 warehouse
    1:25:32 in
    1:25:33 Tehran
    1:25:34 full
    1:25:34 I don’t
    1:25:35 know
    1:25:35 the
    1:25:35 truth
    1:25:35 behind
    1:25:36 those
    1:25:36 documents
    1:25:36 I
    1:25:37 don’t
    1:25:37 believe
    1:25:38 Israeli
    1:25:38 claims
    1:25:39 of
    1:25:39 what
    1:25:39 they
    1:25:40 were
    1:25:40 and
    1:25:40 where
    1:25:40 they
    1:25:40 came
    1:25:41 from
    1:25:41 without
    1:25:42 for
    1:25:42 example
    1:25:42 reading
    1:25:43 Albright’s
    1:25:43 book
    1:25:43 and
    1:25:44 seeing
    1:25:44 what
    1:25:44 he
    1:25:44 has
    1:25:44 to
    1:25:44 say
    1:25:45 about
    1:25:45 all
    1:25:45 of
    1:25:45 that
    1:25:46 I
    1:25:52 there
    1:25:52 you
    1:25:52 say
    1:25:52 that
    1:25:52 there’s
    1:25:52 a
    1:25:53 document
    1:25:53 that
    1:25:53 has
    1:25:53 a
    1:25:53 plan
    1:25:54 to
    1:25:54 make
    1:25:54 five
    1:25:55 bombs
    1:25:55 but
    1:25:56 isn’t
    1:25:56 the
    1:25:56 rest
    1:25:56 of the
    1:25:56 proof
    1:25:56 the
    1:25:57 same
    1:25:57 green
    1:25:58 salt
    1:25:58 experiments
    1:25:59 and
    1:25:59 the
    1:25:59 warhead
    1:26:00 for
    1:26:00 the
    1:26:00 missile
    1:26:00 that
    1:26:00 David
    1:26:01 Albright
    1:26:01 showed
    1:26:02 was
    1:26:03 obviously
    1:26:03 fake
    1:26:04 because
    1:26:04 the
    1:26:04 warhead
    1:26:05 was
    1:26:06 purportedly
    1:26:06 being
    1:26:07 designed
    1:26:07 for a
    1:26:07 missile
    1:26:07 that
    1:26:08 was
    1:26:08 now
    1:26:08 going
    1:26:08 to
    1:26:08 have
    1:26:08 an
    1:26:09 entirely
    1:26:09 different
    1:26:10 nose
    1:26:10 cone
    1:26:10 on
    1:26:10 it
    1:26:11 David
    1:26:11 Albright
    1:26:11 again
    1:26:12 we should
    1:26:12 bring
    1:26:13 David
    1:26:13 Albright
    1:26:13 here
    1:26:14 David
    1:26:14 Albright
    1:26:14 is a
    1:26:15 prominent
    1:26:15 physicist
    1:26:15 and
    1:26:16 nuclear
    1:26:16 proliferation
    1:26:17 expert
    1:26:17 known for
    1:26:18 his detailed
    1:26:18 research
    1:26:19 and publication
    1:26:19 on nuclear
    1:26:20 weapons
    1:26:20 he has a
    1:26:21 bunch of
    1:26:21 books
    1:26:21 peddling
    1:26:22 peril
    1:26:23 Iran’s
    1:26:23 perilous
    1:26:23 pursuit
    1:26:23 of
    1:26:24 nuclear
    1:26:24 weapons
    1:26:25 plutonium
    1:26:25 and
    1:26:26 highly
    1:26:26 enriched
    1:26:26 uranium
    1:26:27 1996
    1:26:28 and so
    1:26:28 on
    1:26:28 yeah
    1:26:29 so
    1:26:30 folks
    1:26:30 should
    1:26:31 read
    1:26:31 the
    1:26:31 book
    1:26:32 on the
    1:26:32 archive
    1:26:33 because
    1:26:33 David
    1:26:33 had
    1:26:35 full
    1:26:35 access
    1:26:35 to the
    1:26:36 archive
    1:26:36 all the
    1:26:37 detailed
    1:26:37 documents
    1:26:38 and
    1:26:38 blueprints
    1:26:38 and he
    1:26:39 writes
    1:26:39 a book
    1:26:39 that
    1:26:40 again
    1:26:40 the
    1:26:40 conclusion
    1:26:41 of
    1:26:41 which
    1:26:41 is
    1:26:42 Iran
    1:26:42 had
    1:26:42 an
    1:26:43 active
    1:26:44 nuclear
    1:26:44 weapons
    1:26:44 program
    1:26:45 no
    1:26:45 no
    1:26:45 the
    1:26:45 conclusion
    1:26:45 of
    1:26:46 which
    1:26:46 was
    1:26:46 they
    1:26:46 were
    1:26:47 researching
    1:26:47 it
    1:26:48 right
    1:26:48 before
    1:26:48 2003
    1:26:49 they had
    1:26:49 no
    1:26:49 nuclear
    1:26:50 material
    1:26:50 to
    1:26:51 introduce
    1:26:51 into a
    1:26:52 single
    1:26:52 machine
    1:26:52 right
    1:26:53 well
    1:26:53 they
    1:26:53 had
    1:26:55 already
    1:26:56 built
    1:26:56 a
    1:26:56 covert
    1:26:56 enrichment
    1:26:57 facility
    1:26:57 which
    1:26:57 was
    1:26:58 only
    1:26:58 no
    1:26:58 they
    1:26:58 hadn’t
    1:26:58 it
    1:26:58 was
    1:26:59 closed
    1:26:59 Natanz
    1:27:00 was
    1:27:12 putting
    1:27:12 in
    1:27:12 place
    1:27:13 the
    1:27:13 component
    1:27:14 parts
    1:27:15 for
    1:27:16 a
    1:27:16 nuclear
    1:27:17 weapons
    1:27:17 capability
    1:27:18 and
    1:27:19 Ahmad
    1:27:20 showed
    1:27:21 conclusively
    1:27:21 unless you
    1:27:22 believe
    1:27:22 Mossad
    1:27:23 fabricated
    1:27:23 at all
    1:27:24 that
    1:27:24 they
    1:27:24 actually
    1:27:25 had
    1:27:25 the
    1:27:25 plan
    1:27:25 to
    1:27:26 build
    1:27:26 nuclear
    1:27:27 warheads
    1:27:27 again
    1:27:27 Seymour
    1:27:27 Hirsch
    1:27:28 says
    1:27:28 that
    1:27:28 it
    1:27:28 was
    1:27:29 when
    1:27:29 Seymour
    1:27:29 Hirsch
    1:27:30 was not
    1:27:30 a
    1:27:30 nuclear
    1:27:30 weapons
    1:27:31 expert
    1:27:31 David
    1:27:32 Albright
    1:27:32 has
    1:27:32 you saw
    1:27:32 the
    1:27:32 archive
    1:27:33 Hirsch’s
    1:27:34 sources
    1:27:34 said
    1:27:35 you’re
    1:27:35 claiming
    1:27:35 that
    1:27:35 America
    1:27:36 invaded
    1:27:37 Iraq
    1:27:37 and
    1:27:37 overthrew
    1:27:38 Saddam
    1:27:38 Hussein
    1:27:38 for
    1:27:38 them
    1:27:39 that
    1:27:39 was
    1:27:39 when
    1:27:39 they
    1:27:40 gave
    1:27:40 up
    1:27:40 even
    1:27:41 considering
    1:27:41 the
    1:27:41 need
    1:27:42 for
    1:27:42 it
    1:27:42 remember
    1:27:42 the
    1:27:43 Iranians
    1:27:43 held a
    1:27:44 million
    1:27:44 man
    1:27:44 vigil
    1:27:45 for
    1:27:45 the
    1:27:45 Americans
    1:27:46 on
    1:27:46 September
    1:27:47 11th
    1:27:47 the
    1:27:47 Iranians
    1:27:48 hated
    1:27:48 the
    1:27:48 Taliban
    1:27:49 in fact
    1:27:49 the
    1:27:49 Americans
    1:27:49 thought
    1:27:50 Iran
    1:27:50 might
    1:27:51 invade
    1:27:51 Afghanistan
    1:27:52 earlier
    1:27:52 in
    1:27:52 2001
    1:27:53 and
    1:27:53 they
    1:27:53 hated
    1:27:54 Saddam
    1:27:54 Hussein
    1:27:55 so
    1:27:55 they
    1:28:08 You’re
    1:28:08 asking
    1:28:09 me
    1:28:09 what
    1:28:09 I
    1:28:09 already
    1:28:10 answered
    1:28:10 you
    1:28:10 I
    1:28:12 fabricated
    1:28:12 that
    1:28:12 entire
    1:28:12 I
    1:28:13 already
    1:28:13 told
    1:28:13 you
    1:28:13 I
    1:28:14 don’t
    1:28:14 take
    1:28:14 their
    1:28:14 word
    1:28:14 for
    1:28:15 anything
    1:28:15 and
    1:28:16 as far
    1:28:17 as I
    1:28:17 understand
    1:28:17 the
    1:28:18 accusations
    1:28:18 in there
    1:28:18 are the
    1:28:18 same
    1:28:19 ones
    1:28:19 from
    1:28:19 the
    1:28:19 laptop
    1:28:20 that
    1:28:20 are
    1:28:20 already
    1:28:21 discredited
    1:28:21 and I
    1:28:21 haven’t
    1:28:22 read
    1:28:22 David
    1:28:22 Albright’s
    1:28:22 book
    1:28:23 you’re
    1:28:23 distracting
    1:28:24 from
    1:28:24 me
    1:28:24 refuting
    1:28:25 this
    1:28:25 giant
    1:28:26 list
    1:28:26 of
    1:28:26 false
    1:28:26 claims
    1:28:27 that
    1:28:27 you
    1:28:27 made
    1:28:27 previously
    1:28:28 that
    1:28:28 I
    1:28:28 haven’t
    1:28:28 got
    1:28:28 a
    1:28:28 chance
    1:28:29 all
    1:28:29 agree
    1:28:29 you’re
    1:28:29 going
    1:28:29 to
    1:28:29 read
    1:28:29 the
    1:28:29 book
    1:28:30 maybe
    1:28:30 Lex
    1:28:31 you’re
    1:28:31 going
    1:28:31 to
    1:28:31 read
    1:28:31 the
    1:28:31 book
    1:28:32 viewers
    1:28:32 you should
    1:28:32 read
    1:28:32 the
    1:28:33 book
    1:28:33 I
    1:28:33 think
    1:28:33 David
    1:28:33 Albright
    1:28:34 has
    1:28:34 done
    1:28:34 a
    1:28:34 meticulous
    1:28:35 job
    1:28:35 it’s
    1:28:35 by the
    1:28:35 way
    1:28:35 just
    1:28:36 just
    1:28:36 warning
    1:28:36 it’s
    1:28:37 a
    1:28:37 big
    1:28:37 book
    1:28:38 very
    1:28:38 detailed
    1:28:39 hundreds
    1:28:39 of
    1:28:39 pages
    1:28:39 and
    1:28:40 he
    1:28:40 goes
    1:28:40 through
    1:28:40 it
    1:28:40 in
    1:28:41 meticulous
    1:28:41 detail
    1:28:42 in
    1:28:42 analyzing
    1:28:43 this
    1:28:44 archive
    1:28:44 and showed
    1:28:44 again
    1:28:44 that
    1:28:45 Iran
    1:28:45 had
    1:28:46 an
    1:28:46 active
    1:28:47 nuclear
    1:28:47 weapons
    1:28:48 program
    1:28:48 designed
    1:28:48 to
    1:28:48 build
    1:28:59 war
    1:28:59 with
    1:29:00 Iraq
    1:29:00 for
    1:29:00 Ariel
    1:29:00 Sharon
    1:29:01 so
    1:29:01 just
    1:29:01 to
    1:29:02 clarify
    1:29:02 Hugh
    1:29:03 Mark
    1:29:03 and
    1:29:04 David
    1:29:04 Albright
    1:29:06 believe
    1:29:06 that
    1:29:07 Iran
    1:29:08 was
    1:29:08 developing
    1:29:08 a
    1:29:08 nuclear
    1:29:09 weapon
    1:29:10 and
    1:29:10 you
    1:29:10 Scott
    1:29:10 are
    1:29:11 saying
    1:29:11 they
    1:29:11 were
    1:29:11 not
    1:29:11 before
    1:29:12 2003
    1:29:13 just
    1:29:14 to
    1:29:14 summarize
    1:29:15 what
    1:29:15 we were
    1:29:15 just
    1:29:15 talking
    1:29:15 about
    1:29:16 well
    1:29:16 I
    1:29:16 can
    1:29:16 tell
    1:29:16 you
    1:29:17 that
    1:29:17 so
    1:29:18 Gareth’s
    1:29:18 book
    1:29:18 came
    1:29:18 out
    1:29:18 in
    1:29:19 2014
    1:29:20 which
    1:29:20 is
    1:29:20 before
    1:29:20 this
    1:29:21 archive
    1:29:21 was
    1:29:22 supposedly
    1:29:22 revealed
    1:29:22 in
    1:29:23 Tehran
    1:29:23 but
    1:29:24 in
    1:29:25 Gareth’s
    1:29:25 book
    1:29:25 he
    1:29:25 shows
    1:29:26 that
    1:29:26 the
    1:29:27 CIA
    1:29:27 and
    1:29:27 national
    1:29:28 intelligence
    1:29:28 estimate
    1:29:28 of
    1:29:29 2007
    1:29:30 that
    1:29:30 said
    1:29:30 that
    1:29:30 there
    1:29:30 was
    1:29:30 a
    1:29:31 program
    1:29:31 before
    1:29:32 2003
    1:29:32 and
    1:29:33 was
    1:29:33 halted
    1:29:34 after
    1:29:34 America
    1:29:35 invaded
    1:29:35 Iraq
    1:29:36 was
    1:29:37 based
    1:29:37 on
    1:29:38 one
    1:29:38 the
    1:29:39 the
    1:29:39 DIA’s
    1:29:40 mistaken
    1:29:41 but
    1:29:41 sincere
    1:29:43 interpretation
    1:29:44 of these
    1:29:44 invoices
    1:29:45 for these
    1:29:46 dual use
    1:29:47 technologies
    1:29:47 and then
    1:29:48 the smoking
    1:29:48 laptop
    1:29:49 which was
    1:29:50 completely
    1:29:50 fake
    1:29:50 and funneled
    1:29:51 into the
    1:29:51 stream
    1:29:52 by the
    1:29:53 Mujahideen
    1:29:53 e-cult
    1:29:54 communist
    1:29:54 terrorist
    1:29:54 cult
    1:29:54 the same
    1:29:55 people
    1:29:55 who
    1:29:56 come
    1:29:56 off
    1:29:56 with
    1:29:57 you
    1:29:57 know
    1:29:57 10
    1:29:57 major
    1:29:57 hoax
    1:29:58 the
    1:29:58 NCRI
    1:29:58 they
    1:29:58 just
    1:29:59 put
    1:29:59 out
    1:29:59 the
    1:30:00 NCRI
    1:30:00 the
    1:30:00 National
    1:30:00 Council
    1:30:01 for
    1:30:01 Resistance
    1:30:01 in
    1:30:25 No
    1:30:25 but
    1:30:25 but
    1:30:25 let’s
    1:30:26 talk
    1:30:26 about
    1:30:26 that
    1:30:26 they
    1:30:26 had
    1:30:27 interesting
    1:30:28 history
    1:30:28 according
    1:30:28 to
    1:30:29 NIE
    1:30:29 they
    1:30:29 had
    1:30:30 a
    1:30:30 nuclear
    1:30:30 weapons
    1:30:31 research
    1:30:31 program
    1:30:32 that
    1:30:32 never
    1:30:33 made
    1:30:33 anything
    1:30:34 at
    1:30:34 all
    1:30:34 so you
    1:30:35 can try
    1:30:35 to conflate
    1:30:35 that if you
    1:30:35 want
    1:30:36 but I think
    1:30:37 everybody
    1:31:07 the Supreme
    1:31:07 Supreme
    1:31:37 million people
    1:31:37 people
    1:31:37 had been
    1:31:38 had been
    1:31:39 killed
    1:31:39 so they
    1:31:39 were
    1:31:40 they were
    1:31:41 afraid
    1:31:41 that the
    1:31:41 United
    1:31:42 States
    1:31:42 was
    1:31:42 going
    1:31:42 to
    1:31:43 march
    1:31:43 from
    1:31:44 Baghdad
    1:31:44 to
    1:31:44 Tehran
    1:31:46 so they
    1:31:46 make a
    1:31:46 decision
    1:31:48 to end
    1:31:49 their
    1:31:50 active
    1:31:50 Ahmad
    1:31:51 program
    1:31:52 they
    1:31:53 make a
    1:31:53 decision
    1:31:53 to
    1:31:54 build
    1:31:54 out
    1:31:54 the
    1:31:54 key
    1:31:55 capabilities
    1:31:55 they
    1:31:56 need
    1:31:56 to
    1:31:56 retain
    1:31:57 an
    1:31:57 Iranian
    1:31:58 nuclear
    1:31:58 weapons
    1:31:59 option
    1:32:00 specifically
    1:32:00 the
    1:32:01 enrichment
    1:32:01 capabilities
    1:32:02 at
    1:32:03 Natanz
    1:32:03 and then
    1:32:04 Fordow
    1:32:05 and at
    1:32:05 Iraq
    1:32:06 giving them
    1:32:06 the
    1:32:07 plutonium
    1:32:07 route
    1:32:08 and then
    1:32:08 what they
    1:32:09 do is
    1:32:09 they take
    1:32:10 the members
    1:32:10 of the
    1:32:10 Ahmad
    1:32:11 program
    1:32:11 the nuclear
    1:32:11 weapons
    1:32:12 scientists
    1:32:12 that have
    1:32:12 worked
    1:32:13 on this
    1:32:14 and they
    1:32:14 disperse
    1:32:14 them
    1:32:15 so they’re
    1:32:16 now no
    1:32:16 longer
    1:32:17 in a
    1:32:18 formal
    1:32:19 weapons
    1:32:19 program
    1:32:20 they’re
    1:32:20 put in
    1:32:20 a
    1:32:21 number
    1:32:21 of
    1:32:22 different
    1:32:22 research
    1:32:22 centers
    1:32:23 and
    1:32:23 universities
    1:32:24 and
    1:32:24 Mohsen
    1:32:25 Fakhrizade
    1:32:25 who you
    1:32:26 mentioned
    1:32:27 earlier
    1:32:28 who’s
    1:32:28 in some
    1:32:28 respects
    1:32:29 I wouldn’t
    1:32:29 call him
    1:32:30 the Oppenheimer
    1:32:31 of the
    1:32:32 Iranian
    1:32:32 nuclear
    1:32:33 weapons
    1:32:33 program
    1:32:33 he’s
    1:32:34 more like
    1:32:36 who was
    1:32:36 in the
    1:32:36 Oppenheimer
    1:32:37 movie
    1:32:37 Leslie
    1:32:37 Grove
    1:32:39 the guy
    1:32:39 who was
    1:32:39 actually
    1:32:40 responsible
    1:32:40 for the
    1:32:41 organization
    1:32:42 and the
    1:32:43 training
    1:32:43 and the
    1:32:44 recruitment
    1:32:44 and the
    1:32:45 guy that
    1:32:45 actually ran
    1:32:46 the program
    1:32:46 as opposed
    1:32:47 to Oppenheimer
    1:32:47 the sort
    1:32:48 of brilliant
    1:32:48 nuclear
    1:32:49 physicist
    1:32:50 this is
    1:32:51 Fakhrizade
    1:32:52 so Fakhrizade
    1:32:53 takes control
    1:32:53 of this
    1:32:54 program
    1:32:55 and now
    1:32:55 it is
    1:32:56 dispersed
    1:32:57 and it
    1:32:57 is
    1:32:59 unstructured
    1:32:59 in that
    1:33:00 sense
    1:33:00 because
    1:33:01 they
    1:33:01 recognize
    1:33:02 that if
    1:33:03 they continue
    1:33:03 with this
    1:33:04 the United
    1:33:04 States
    1:33:05 may march
    1:33:06 to Tehran
    1:33:06 and so
    1:33:07 the NIE
    1:33:08 says
    1:33:08 Iran is
    1:33:09 retaining
    1:33:09 the key
    1:33:10 capabilities
    1:33:10 the enrichment
    1:33:11 capabilities
    1:33:11 to give
    1:33:12 them an
    1:33:12 option
    1:33:12 for a
    1:33:12 nuclear
    1:33:13 weapon
    1:33:13 but we
    1:33:14 the NIE
    1:33:15 have decided
    1:33:15 or we
    1:33:16 have concluded
    1:33:17 that they
    1:33:17 no longer
    1:33:18 have an
    1:33:18 active
    1:33:19 structured
    1:33:20 nuclear
    1:33:20 weapons
    1:33:21 program
    1:33:21 however
    1:33:22 since then
    1:33:22 what have
    1:33:23 we seen
    1:33:23 we’ve seen
    1:33:24 them actually
    1:33:25 do what
    1:33:26 many suspected
    1:33:26 they would do
    1:33:27 which is
    1:33:28 build all
    1:33:28 the key
    1:33:29 capabilities
    1:33:29 that they
    1:33:30 need
    1:33:30 so that
    1:33:31 at the time
    1:33:31 of their
    1:33:32 choosing
    1:33:32 they can
    1:33:33 decide
    1:33:34 to develop
    1:33:35 a nuclear
    1:33:35 bomb
    1:33:36 whether it’s
    1:33:36 a crude
    1:33:36 nuclear device
    1:33:37 as you
    1:33:37 described
    1:33:38 whether it’s
    1:33:38 a nuclear
    1:33:39 warhead
    1:33:40 we’ve had
    1:33:40 that discussion
    1:33:42 so far
    1:33:42 but just
    1:33:43 sorry
    1:33:43 just to
    1:33:43 finish
    1:33:44 so
    1:33:44 just
    1:33:45 understand
    1:33:46 the brilliance
    1:33:47 of Iranian
    1:33:48 nuclear
    1:33:49 deception
    1:33:49 right
    1:33:50 I just
    1:33:50 I think
    1:33:50 it’s
    1:33:50 really
    1:33:50 interesting
    1:33:51 to get
    1:33:51 in the
    1:33:51 minds
    1:33:52 of the
    1:33:52 Ayatollah
    1:33:52 and understand
    1:33:53 this
    1:33:53 because
    1:33:54 he doesn’t
    1:33:55 want to provoke
    1:33:55 the United
    1:33:55 States
    1:33:57 he doesn’t
    1:33:57 want to see
    1:33:57 another
    1:33:59 Iraq style
    1:33:59 invasion
    1:34:00 this time
    1:34:00 of his
    1:34:00 country
    1:34:02 he’s
    1:34:02 building
    1:34:02 this
    1:34:03 capability
    1:34:03 on the
    1:34:03 enrichment
    1:34:04 side
    1:34:04 and on
    1:34:04 the
    1:34:05 reprocessing
    1:34:05 side
    1:34:06 he is
    1:34:06 framing
    1:34:07 this
    1:34:07 as I’m
    1:34:07 only
    1:34:08 building
    1:34:08 a
    1:34:08 civilian
    1:34:08 nuclear
    1:34:09 program
    1:34:09 he’s
    1:34:09 taking
    1:34:10 the
    1:34:10 weapons
    1:34:10 scientists
    1:34:11 who are
    1:34:11 building
    1:34:12 part
    1:34:13 of an
    1:34:13 active
    1:34:14 nuclear
    1:34:14 weapons
    1:34:14 program
    1:34:16 and he’s
    1:34:16 dispersing
    1:34:17 them
    1:34:17 putting
    1:34:17 them
    1:34:18 under
    1:34:18 the
    1:34:19 guidance
    1:34:19 and
    1:34:19 direction
    1:34:19 of
    1:34:20 Fakhrizade
    1:34:21 and starting
    1:34:22 to build
    1:34:22 out
    1:34:22 these
    1:34:23 capabilities
    1:34:23 I mean
    1:34:24 I admire
    1:34:25 I have to say
    1:34:26 I really
    1:34:26 admire the
    1:34:27 way he’s
    1:34:27 played
    1:34:27 this
    1:34:28 three-dimensional
    1:34:28 nuclear
    1:34:29 chess
    1:34:29 game
    1:34:29 it’s
    1:34:30 very
    1:34:30 very
    1:34:30 interesting
    1:34:31 and I
    1:34:31 think
    1:34:31 he made
    1:34:32 a tragic
    1:34:33 mistake
    1:34:34 about
    1:34:35 six
    1:34:35 weeks
    1:34:35 ago
    1:34:36 when
    1:34:36 he
    1:34:36 rejected
    1:34:37 the
    1:34:37 offer
    1:34:37 from
    1:34:38 Trump
    1:34:38 at
    1:34:39 Oman
    1:34:40 and then
    1:34:40 provoked
    1:34:41 both an
    1:34:41 Israeli
    1:34:42 and then
    1:34:42 an
    1:34:42 American
    1:34:43 strike
    1:34:44 but he
    1:34:44 was
    1:34:44 playing
    1:34:44 this
    1:34:45 game
    1:34:46 almost
    1:34:46 perfectly
    1:34:47 before
    1:34:47 then
    1:34:48 in
    1:34:48 building
    1:34:48 out
    1:34:48 these
    1:34:49 capabilities
    1:34:50 and
    1:34:50 I
    1:34:50 think
    1:34:51 what
    1:34:51 he
    1:34:51 should
    1:34:51 have
    1:34:51 done
    1:34:51 if
    1:34:52 I
    1:34:52 were
    1:34:52 him
    1:34:52 I
    1:34:52 would
    1:34:52 have
    1:34:53 waited
    1:34:53 out
    1:34:53 Trump
    1:34:54 I
    1:34:54 would
    1:34:54 have
    1:34:54 waited
    1:34:55 three
    1:34:55 and a
    1:34:55 half
    1:34:55 years
    1:34:55 I
    1:34:55 would
    1:34:55 have
    1:34:56 taken
    1:34:56 the
    1:34:56 offer
    1:34:56 in
    1:34:56 Oman
    1:34:57 which
    1:34:57 gave
    1:34:57 him
    1:34:58 enrichment
    1:34:58 capability
    1:34:59 above
    1:34:59 ground
    1:35:00 this
    1:35:01 consortium
    1:35:01 that was
    1:35:01 going to
    1:35:01 be built
    1:35:02 in three
    1:35:02 and a
    1:35:02 half
    1:35:02 years
    1:35:03 would
    1:35:03 never
    1:35:03 be
    1:35:03 built
    1:35:04 and even
    1:35:04 if
    1:35:04 it was
    1:35:04 built
    1:35:05 he
    1:35:05 could
    1:35:05 just
    1:35:05 say
    1:35:05 I’m
    1:35:05 not
    1:35:06 interested
    1:35:06 anymore
    1:35:07 and
    1:35:07 challenge
    1:35:07 the
    1:35:08 next
    1:35:08 president
    1:35:08 whoever
    1:35:09 that
    1:35:09 is
    1:35:09 Republican
    1:35:10 and Democrat
    1:35:10 to do
    1:35:11 anything
    1:35:11 about
    1:35:11 it
    1:35:11 and I
    1:35:11 think
    1:35:11 the
    1:35:12 political
    1:35:13 calculation
    1:35:14 should
    1:35:14 have
    1:35:14 been
    1:35:14 the
    1:35:15 next
    1:35:15 president
    1:35:15 is
    1:35:15 not
    1:35:15 going
    1:35:16 to
    1:35:16 do
    1:35:16 anything
    1:35:16 about
    1:35:16 this
    1:35:17 I’ll
    1:35:18 be
    1:35:18 able
    1:35:18 to
    1:35:18 then
    1:35:18 be
    1:35:18 able
    1:35:19 to
    1:35:19 complete
    1:35:19 my
    1:35:20 nuclear
    1:35:20 weapons
    1:35:20 program
    1:35:21 but he
    1:35:22 challenged
    1:35:22 Trump
    1:35:22 he
    1:35:22 thought
    1:35:23 Trump
    1:35:23 was
    1:35:23 a
    1:35:23 paper
    1:35:24 tiger
    1:35:24 he
    1:35:25 rejected
    1:35:25 that
    1:35:25 offer
    1:35:25 at
    1:35:26 Oman
    1:35:27 and
    1:35:27 we’ve
    1:35:27 seen
    1:35:28 what’s
    1:35:28 happened
    1:35:28 over
    1:35:28 the
    1:35:28 past
    1:35:29 couple
    1:35:29 weeks
    1:35:30 two
    1:35:30 things
    1:35:31 one
    1:35:31 can
    1:35:31 you
    1:35:31 go
    1:35:31 and
    1:35:32 respond
    1:35:32 to
    1:35:32 certain
    1:35:32 things
    1:35:33 that
    1:35:33 you
    1:35:34 heard
    1:35:34 and
    1:35:35 two
    1:35:35 can
    1:35:35 we
    1:35:36 generally
    1:35:36 move
    1:35:37 in
    1:35:37 the
    1:35:37 direction
    1:35:38 of
    1:35:38 the
    1:35:38 modern
    1:35:39 day
    1:35:39 and
    1:35:39 trying
    1:35:40 to
    1:35:40 see
    1:35:40 what
    1:35:40 is
    1:35:40 the
    1:35:41 right
    1:35:48 history
    1:35:48 which
    1:35:48 is
    1:35:49 really
    1:35:49 important
    1:35:49 but
    1:35:50 sort
    1:35:50 of
    1:35:50 moving
    1:35:50 forward
    1:35:51 but
    1:35:52 go ahead
    1:35:52 please
    1:35:53 I’m not
    1:35:53 sure how much
    1:35:53 time we have
    1:35:55 I kind of
    1:35:55 hoped
    1:35:56 that we could
    1:35:56 talk about
    1:35:58 Israel’s role
    1:35:59 in Iraq
    1:35:59 War II
    1:36:00 and for
    1:36:01 that matter
    1:36:02 in Barack
    1:36:02 Obama’s
    1:36:02 dirty war
    1:36:03 in Syria
    1:36:03 that led
    1:36:04 to the rise
    1:36:04 of the
    1:36:05 bin Laden
    1:36:05 Knights
    1:36:05 there
    1:36:05 it’s
    1:36:06 all part
    1:36:06 of
    1:36:07 America’s
    1:36:07 Israel
    1:36:07 policy
    1:36:08 so I
    1:36:08 don’t
    1:36:08 want
    1:36:08 to
    1:36:09 I
    1:36:09 rather
    1:36:09 go
    1:36:09 back
    1:36:10 before
    1:36:10 we
    1:36:10 go
    1:36:10 forward
    1:36:11 but
    1:36:11 I
    1:36:11 also
    1:36:12 do
    1:36:12 I
    1:36:12 need
    1:36:12 to
    1:36:13 go
    1:36:13 back
    1:36:13 over
    1:36:13 so
    1:36:13 many
    1:36:14 claims
    1:36:14 that
    1:36:14 he’s
    1:36:14 made
    1:36:14 here
    1:36:14 that
    1:36:15 I
    1:36:16 strongly
    1:36:17 prefer
    1:36:17 we
    1:36:17 go
    1:36:18 because
    1:36:18 there’s
    1:36:18 so
    1:36:19 much
    1:36:19 history
    1:36:19 we’re
    1:36:19 going
    1:36:19 to
    1:36:20 lose
    1:36:20 ourselves
    1:36:20 in it
    1:36:20 there’s
    1:36:21 not
    1:36:21 enough
    1:36:21 hours
    1:36:22 we
    1:36:23 should
    1:36:24 take
    1:36:24 certain
    1:36:24 moments
    1:36:25 in
    1:36:25 history
    1:36:25 that
    1:36:26 instruct
    1:36:26 the
    1:36:27 modern
    1:36:27 day
    1:36:28 but
    1:36:28 let’s
    1:36:28 not
    1:36:28 get
    1:36:29 lost
    1:36:29 there
    1:36:29 if
    1:36:29 it’s
    1:36:29 okay
    1:36:30 sure
    1:36:30 this
    1:36:30 is
    1:36:30 such
    1:36:30 a
    1:36:31 fascinating
    1:36:31 conversation
    1:36:32 although
    1:36:32 we’re
    1:36:32 talking
    1:36:32 about
    1:36:33 you
    1:36:33 know
    1:36:33 the
    1:36:34 JCPOA
    1:36:34 and the
    1:36:34 time
    1:36:35 between
    1:36:35 then
    1:36:35 and now
    1:36:35 like
    1:36:36 quite
    1:36:36 a bit
    1:36:36 already
    1:36:37 too
    1:36:37 so
    1:36:38 we’ll
    1:36:38 be
    1:36:38 going
    1:36:38 back
    1:36:38 over
    1:36:38 some
    1:36:39 of
    1:36:39 that
    1:36:39 no
    1:36:39 I
    1:36:39 mean
    1:36:40 modern
    1:36:40 day
    1:36:40 I
    1:36:41 don’t
    1:36:41 mean
    1:36:41 this
    1:36:41 week
    1:36:43 a lot
    1:36:43 of
    1:36:44 stuff
    1:36:46 will
    1:36:47 happen
    1:36:47 tomorrow
    1:36:47 and
    1:36:48 the
    1:36:48 next
    1:36:48 week
    1:36:49 and
    1:36:49 we
    1:36:49 everyone
    1:36:50 wants
    1:36:50 to
    1:36:50 know
    1:36:51 what
    1:36:52 is
    1:36:52 going
    1:36:52 to
    1:36:52 happen
    1:36:52 what
    1:36:53 is
    1:36:53 the
    1:36:53 worst
    1:36:53 case
    1:36:53 what
    1:36:54 is
    1:36:54 the
    1:36:54 best
    1:36:54 case
    1:36:55 should
    1:36:55 we
    1:36:55 be
    1:36:55 freaking
    1:36:56 out
    1:36:56 what
    1:36:56 do
    1:36:56 we
    1:36:56 need
    1:36:56 to
    1:36:57 understand
    1:36:57 about
    1:36:57 today
    1:36:57 that’s
    1:36:57 all
    1:36:58 right
    1:36:59 so
    1:36:59 there’s
    1:36:59 a lot
    1:36:59 of
    1:36:59 things
    1:36:59 to
    1:37:00 address
    1:37:00 here
    1:37:00 so
    1:37:00 first
    1:37:00 of
    1:37:01 all
    1:37:01 something
    1:37:01 that
    1:37:02 me
    1:37:02 and
    1:37:02 Mr.
    1:37:03 Dubowitz
    1:37:03 agree
    1:37:03 about
    1:37:04 Mark
    1:37:05 something
    1:37:05 that
    1:37:05 Mark
    1:37:06 and I
    1:37:06 agree
    1:37:06 about
    1:37:07 is
    1:37:08 that
    1:37:09 there
    1:37:09 actually
    1:37:09 is
    1:37:10 not
    1:37:10 a
    1:37:10 threat
    1:37:11 of
    1:37:11 an
    1:37:12 aggressive
    1:37:12 first
    1:37:12 strike
    1:37:13 by
    1:37:13 Iran
    1:37:14 I’m
    1:37:14 a little
    1:37:15 surprised
    1:37:15 to hear
    1:37:15 him
    1:37:15 say
    1:37:16 that
    1:37:16 but
    1:37:16 I’m
    1:37:16 grateful
    1:37:16 to
    1:37:16 hear
    1:37:16 him
    1:37:17 say
    1:37:17 it
    1:37:17 is
    1:37:17 honest
    1:37:18 I
    1:37:18 would
    1:37:20 you
    1:37:20 know
    1:37:20 advise
    1:37:21 you
    1:37:21 for
    1:37:22 you
    1:37:22 may
    1:37:22 be
    1:37:22 unfamiliar
    1:37:23 with
    1:37:23 this
    1:37:23 but
    1:37:23 I
    1:37:23 can
    1:37:23 tell
    1:37:24 you
    1:37:25 anyone
    1:37:25 in
    1:37:25 America
    1:37:25 who
    1:37:26 drives
    1:37:26 for
    1:37:26 a
    1:37:26 living
    1:37:27 and
    1:37:28 listens
    1:37:28 to
    1:37:28 AM
    1:37:28 radio
    1:37:29 have
    1:37:30 heard
    1:37:30 claims
    1:37:30 that
    1:37:31 Iran
    1:37:31 was
    1:37:31 making
    1:37:32 nuclear
    1:37:32 weapons
    1:37:33 probably
    1:37:34 50,000
    1:37:34 times
    1:37:35 in the
    1:37:35 last
    1:37:35 25
    1:37:36 years
    1:37:38 over
    1:37:38 and
    1:37:39 over
    1:37:39 and
    1:37:39 over
    1:37:40 again
    1:37:40 we
    1:37:40 hear
    1:37:40 this
    1:37:41 propaganda
    1:37:41 they
    1:37:43 still
    1:37:44 don’t
    1:37:44 have
    1:37:44 a
    1:37:45 single
    1:37:45 atom
    1:37:45 bomb
    1:37:46 the
    1:37:46 reason
    1:37:46 why
    1:37:47 they
    1:37:47 haven’t
    1:37:47 been
    1:37:47 able
    1:37:47 to
    1:37:48 cobbled
    1:37:48 together
    1:37:49 an
    1:37:49 atom
    1:37:49 bomb
    1:37:50 in
    1:37:50 this
    1:37:51 1940s
    1:37:51 technology
    1:37:52 is
    1:37:52 because
    1:37:52 they
    1:37:52 have
    1:37:53 not
    1:37:53 tried
    1:37:53 to
    1:37:54 okay
    1:37:55 so
    1:37:55 people
    1:37:55 can
    1:37:56 you know
    1:37:56 just
    1:37:57 essentially
    1:37:57 flog
    1:37:57 this
    1:37:58 dead
    1:37:58 horse
    1:37:59 pretend
    1:37:59 there’s
    1:37:59 this
    1:37:59 threat
    1:38:00 oh
    1:38:00 he’s
    1:38:00 gonna
    1:38:00 break
    1:38:01 out
    1:38:01 any
    1:38:01 day
    1:38:01 now
    1:38:02 but
    1:38:02 here’s
    1:38:02 the
    1:38:02 thing
    1:38:02 about
    1:38:03 that
    1:38:03 as
    1:38:03 the
    1:38:04 Ayatollah
    1:38:04 well
    1:38:05 knows
    1:38:06 George
    1:38:07 W
    1:38:07 Bush
    1:38:08 Barack
    1:38:08 Obama
    1:38:09 Donald
    1:38:09 Trump
    1:38:10 Joe
    1:38:10 Biden
    1:38:11 and
    1:38:11 now
    1:38:11 Trump
    1:38:11 again
    1:38:12 have
    1:38:12 all
    1:38:13 vowed
    1:38:13 with
    1:38:14 all
    1:38:14 sincerity
    1:38:15 that
    1:38:15 they
    1:38:16 would
    1:38:16 bomb
    1:38:17 Iran
    1:38:17 off
    1:38:17 the
    1:38:18 face
    1:38:18 of
    1:38:18 the
    1:38:18 earth
    1:38:19 if
    1:38:20 they
    1:38:20 attempted
    1:38:21 to
    1:38:21 break
    1:38:22 out
    1:38:22 and
    1:38:22 make
    1:38:22 a
    1:38:23 nuclear
    1:38:23 weapon
    1:38:24 Hillary
    1:38:24 Clinton
    1:38:24 when she
    1:38:24 ran
    1:38:24 said
    1:38:25 they’d
    1:38:25 be
    1:38:26 obliterated
    1:38:26 from
    1:38:26 the
    1:38:26 face
    1:38:26 of
    1:38:26 the
    1:38:27 earth
    1:38:27 Barack
    1:38:27 Obama
    1:38:28 did
    1:38:28 an
    1:38:28 interview
    1:38:28 with
    1:38:29 Jeffrey
    1:38:29 Goldberg
    1:38:29 in
    1:38:29 the
    1:38:30 Atlantic
    1:38:30 in
    1:38:31 2012
    1:38:31 called
    1:38:32 as
    1:38:32 president
    1:38:33 I
    1:38:33 don’t
    1:38:34 bluff
    1:38:34 and
    1:38:34 essentially
    1:38:35 the
    1:38:35 interview
    1:38:35 is
    1:38:35 him
    1:38:36 begging
    1:38:36 Jeffrey
    1:38:37 Goldberg
    1:38:37 to
    1:38:38 explain
    1:38:38 to
    1:38:38 the
    1:38:38 Israelis
    1:38:39 that
    1:38:39 he
    1:38:44 out
    1:38:45 for
    1:38:45 a
    1:38:45 nuke
    1:38:45 I’ll
    1:38:46 nuke
    1:38:46 him
    1:38:46 if
    1:38:46 I
    1:38:47 have
    1:38:47 to
    1:38:48 he
    1:38:48 didn’t
    1:38:48 say
    1:38:48 that
    1:38:49 but
    1:38:49 the
    1:38:49 implication
    1:38:49 was
    1:38:50 no
    1:38:50 US
    1:38:51 president
    1:38:51 ever
    1:38:51 said
    1:38:51 they’re
    1:38:51 going
    1:38:52 obliterate
    1:38:52 Iran
    1:38:53 Hillary
    1:38:54 Clinton
    1:38:54 did
    1:38:55 all options
    1:38:55 are on
    1:38:55 the
    1:38:55 table
    1:38:56 anyone
    1:38:56 can
    1:38:56 google
    1:38:57 her
    1:38:57 word
    1:38:57 she was
    1:38:58 never
    1:38:58 our
    1:38:58 president
    1:38:58 no I said
    1:38:59 she was running
    1:38:59 for president
    1:39:00 but she was
    1:39:00 never
    1:39:00 our
    1:39:00 president
    1:39:01 but no
    1:39:01 US
    1:39:01 president
    1:39:01 ever
    1:39:01 said
    1:39:02 they’d
    1:39:02 obliterate
    1:39:02 Iran
    1:39:03 nobody
    1:39:03 ever
    1:39:03 said
    1:39:03 the
    1:39:04 implication
    1:39:05 was
    1:39:06 clear
    1:39:06 under
    1:39:07 W.
    1:39:07 Bush
    1:39:07 Barack
    1:39:08 Obama
    1:39:08 Trump
    1:39:09 Biden
    1:39:09 and
    1:39:09 Trump
    1:39:10 again
    1:39:10 that
    1:39:10 if
    1:39:12 they broke
    1:39:12 out
    1:39:13 toward
    1:39:13 a
    1:39:13 nuclear
    1:39:14 weapon
    1:39:14 America
    1:39:15 would
    1:39:15 do
    1:39:16 whatever
    1:39:16 it
    1:39:16 took
    1:39:17 to
    1:39:17 prevent
    1:39:18 that
    1:39:18 from
    1:39:18 happening
    1:39:19 so
    1:39:19 that
    1:39:21 was
    1:39:21 always
    1:39:21 the
    1:39:22 case
    1:39:22 there
    1:39:22 but
    1:39:23 please
    1:39:23 clarify
    1:39:23 just to
    1:39:23 be
    1:39:24 accurate
    1:39:24 and
    1:39:24 I’m
    1:39:24 almost
    1:39:25 talking
    1:39:25 about
    1:39:26 nuking
    1:39:26 Iran
    1:39:26 no one’s
    1:39:27 talking
    1:39:27 about
    1:39:28 bombing
    1:39:28 Iran
    1:39:28 to
    1:39:29 smithereens
    1:39:29 or
    1:39:30 obliterating
    1:39:30 or any
    1:39:30 that
    1:39:31 that’s
    1:39:31 really
    1:39:31 not
    1:39:31 true
    1:39:32 I mean
    1:39:32 Barack
    1:39:32 Obama
    1:39:33 changed
    1:39:34 America’s
    1:39:34 nuclear
    1:39:34 posture
    1:39:35 to
    1:39:35 say
    1:39:36 because
    1:39:36 it
    1:39:36 used
    1:39:36 to
    1:39:36 say
    1:39:36 we
    1:39:37 reserve
    1:39:37 the
    1:39:37 right
    1:39:37 to
    1:39:37 use
    1:39:37 a
    1:39:38 nuclear
    1:39:38 first
    1:39:38 strike
    1:39:38 against
    1:39:39 any
    1:39:39 country
    1:39:40 and
    1:39:40 he
    1:39:40 changed
    1:39:40 that
    1:39:41 to
    1:39:41 say
    1:39:41 no
    1:39:42 we
    1:39:42 promise
    1:39:43 not
    1:39:43 to
    1:39:43 use
    1:39:43 a
    1:39:44 nuclear
    1:39:44 first
    1:39:44 strike
    1:39:45 against
    1:39:45 any
    1:39:45 non-nuclear
    1:39:46 weapon
    1:39:46 state
    1:39:47 except
    1:39:47 maybe
    1:39:48 Iran
    1:39:49 okay
    1:39:50 that’s
    1:39:50 true
    1:39:51 all right
    1:39:51 and so
    1:39:52 in fact
    1:39:53 that was
    1:39:53 the
    1:39:53 threat
    1:39:54 and
    1:39:54 I
    1:39:54 got
    1:39:55 more
    1:39:55 here
    1:39:55 okay
    1:39:57 Netanyahu
    1:39:57 also
    1:39:57 did
    1:39:58 an
    1:39:58 interview
    1:39:58 with
    1:39:58 Jeffrey
    1:39:59 Goldberg
    1:39:59 back
    1:40:00 when
    1:40:00 Ehud
    1:40:00 Barak
    1:40:01 was
    1:40:01 his
    1:40:01 defense
    1:40:02 minister
    1:40:03 in
    1:40:04 I think
    1:40:04 this is
    1:40:04 also
    1:40:05 2012
    1:40:05 it might
    1:40:05 have been
    1:40:06 2014
    1:40:07 where the
    1:40:07 two of
    1:40:07 them
    1:40:08 explained
    1:40:08 that they
    1:40:09 agreed
    1:40:09 with what
    1:40:09 he said
    1:40:10 too
    1:40:10 that
    1:40:11 the threat
    1:40:11 is not
    1:40:11 of a
    1:40:11 nuclear
    1:40:12 first
    1:40:12 strike
    1:40:13 unlike
    1:40:14 every
    1:40:15 AM radio
    1:40:15 audience
    1:40:16 has been
    1:40:16 led to
    1:40:17 believe
    1:40:17 that the
    1:40:17 Ayatollah
    1:40:18 as soon
    1:40:18 as he
    1:40:18 gets an
    1:40:19 atom bomb
    1:40:20 he will
    1:40:20 nuke
    1:40:21 Tel Aviv
    1:40:21 and he
    1:40:22 doesn’t care
    1:40:22 if all
    1:40:22 of Persia
    1:40:23 is nuked
    1:40:23 by Israel’s
    1:40:24 200 nukes
    1:40:25 in response
    1:40:25 he’s trying
    1:40:26 to cause
    1:40:26 the end
    1:40:26 of the
    1:40:27 world
    1:40:28 by causing
    1:40:28 a nuclear
    1:40:29 war
    1:40:29 and all
    1:40:29 these
    1:40:29 things
    1:40:30 well
    1:40:30 Netanyahu
    1:40:31 himself
    1:40:31 admitted
    1:40:32 that that’s
    1:40:32 not true
    1:40:34 I’m just
    1:40:35 agreeing with
    1:40:35 you so you
    1:40:35 don’t have
    1:40:36 to stop
    1:40:36 but I’m
    1:40:36 agreeing
    1:40:36 with
    1:40:36 you
    1:40:37 I know
    1:40:37 but I’m
    1:40:37 agreeing
    1:40:38 with
    1:40:38 you
    1:40:38 so it’s
    1:40:38 all right
    1:40:39 so Netanyahu
    1:40:41 told Jeffrey
    1:40:41 Goldberg
    1:40:43 that he was
    1:40:44 not concerned
    1:40:44 about a
    1:40:45 first strike
    1:40:46 that his
    1:40:46 only concern
    1:40:47 was that
    1:40:48 talented young
    1:40:48 Israelis
    1:40:49 would move
    1:40:49 to Miami
    1:40:50 that there
    1:40:50 would be
    1:40:51 a brain
    1:40:51 drain
    1:40:53 that was
    1:40:53 his words
    1:40:54 a brain
    1:40:54 drain
    1:40:55 from Israel
    1:40:56 and that
    1:40:57 also then
    1:40:57 Hezbollah
    1:40:58 as this is
    1:40:58 what he put
    1:40:59 it and I
    1:40:59 agree with
    1:40:59 this that
    1:41:00 conventional
    1:41:01 forces would
    1:41:01 have a bit
    1:41:02 more freedom
    1:41:02 of action
    1:41:03 in the region
    1:41:04 if Iran
    1:41:04 was sitting
    1:41:05 on an
    1:41:05 A-bomb
    1:41:06 neither
    1:41:07 of them
    1:41:07 said
    1:41:08 that there
    1:41:09 was a
    1:41:09 threat
    1:41:09 of an
    1:41:09 offensive
    1:41:10 first strike
    1:41:11 against Israel
    1:41:11 and I would
    1:41:12 point out
    1:41:12 and I’m
    1:41:13 skipping ahead
    1:41:13 to Trump
    1:41:13 but I’m
    1:41:14 skipping back
    1:41:14 here again
    1:41:15 in a second
    1:41:15 because I got
    1:41:17 more things
    1:41:17 to refute
    1:41:18 but Trump
    1:41:18 just said
    1:41:19 the other
    1:41:19 day when he
    1:41:19 announced
    1:41:20 American
    1:41:20 airstrikes
    1:41:21 there
    1:41:21 that this
    1:41:22 has
    1:41:22 neutralized
    1:41:23 a threat
    1:41:23 to Israel
    1:41:24 he did
    1:41:24 not even
    1:41:25 pretend
    1:41:25 that it
    1:41:25 was a
    1:41:25 threat
    1:41:26 to the
    1:41:26 United
    1:41:26 States
    1:41:27 that he
    1:41:27 had
    1:41:27 ended
    1:41:28 in doing
    1:41:28 so
    1:41:28 actually
    1:41:28 he said
    1:41:29 exactly
    1:41:29 that
    1:41:30 well
    1:41:31 actually
    1:41:31 you can
    1:41:31 google
    1:41:32 the state
    1:41:38 he announced
    1:41:39 his great
    1:41:39 victory
    1:41:40 in bombing
    1:41:41 which is
    1:41:41 what I
    1:41:41 just said
    1:41:42 right
    1:41:42 President
    1:41:43 Trump
    1:41:43 sends out
    1:41:44 20 truth
    1:41:44 posts a
    1:41:45 day
    1:41:45 so let’s
    1:41:46 look at
    1:41:47 the many
    1:41:47 many
    1:41:48 things
    1:41:48 things
    1:41:48 about
    1:41:48 how
    1:41:49 I
    1:41:49 always
    1:41:50 believe
    1:41:50 Hezbollah
    1:41:51 and I
    1:41:52 always
    1:41:52 believe
    1:41:53 the
    1:41:53 Ayatollah
    1:41:54 when in
    1:41:54 fact
    1:41:54 I
    1:41:55 did
    1:41:55 not
    1:41:55 quote
    1:41:55 the
    1:41:56 Ayatollah
    1:41:56 and I
    1:41:57 did
    1:41:57 not
    1:41:57 quote
    1:41:58 Hezbollah
    1:41:58 on anything
    1:41:59 I did
    1:41:59 quote
    1:42:00 Osama
    1:42:00 bin Laden
    1:42:01 taking
    1:42:02 responsibility
    1:42:03 for the
    1:42:03 Gopar
    1:42:04 Towers
    1:42:04 attack
    1:42:05 which
    1:42:05 he
    1:42:06 shared
    1:42:06 that
    1:42:07 with
    1:42:07 Abdelbari
    1:42:08 Atwan
    1:42:08 anyone
    1:42:08 can
    1:42:08 read
    1:42:09 it
    1:42:09 and
    1:42:09 he
    1:42:10 agrees
    1:42:10 with
    1:42:10 Michael
    1:42:10 Scheuer
    1:42:11 the
    1:42:11 former
    1:42:11 chief
    1:42:11 of
    1:42:11 the
    1:42:11 CIA
    1:42:12 bin
    1:42:12 Laden
    1:42:12 unit
    1:42:13 who
    1:42:13 also
    1:42:18 who
    1:42:18 did
    1:42:18 they
    1:42:19 attack
    1:42:19 they
    1:42:19 killed
    1:42:20 19
    1:42:21 American
    1:42:21 airmen
    1:42:22 which
    1:42:22 was
    1:42:22 the
    1:42:22 number
    1:42:23 one
    1:42:24 complaint
    1:42:24 of
    1:42:25 Al-Qaeda
    1:42:25 against
    1:42:25 the
    1:42:26 United
    1:42:26 States
    1:42:26 that
    1:42:27 we
    1:42:27 had
    1:42:28 air
    1:42:28 forces
    1:42:29 and
    1:42:29 armies
    1:42:30 stationed
    1:42:30 in
    1:42:30 Saudi
    1:42:30 Arabia
    1:42:31 in
    1:42:31 order
    1:42:31 to
    1:42:31 bomb
    1:42:31 and
    1:42:32 blockade
    1:42:32 Iraq
    1:42:33 which
    1:42:33 again
    1:42:33 this
    1:42:33 was
    1:42:34 the
    1:42:34 thing
    1:42:34 you
    1:42:34 had
    1:42:34 asked
    1:42:34 about
    1:42:35 before
    1:42:35 was
    1:42:35 part
    1:42:36 of
    1:42:36 the
    1:42:36 dual
    1:42:36 containment
    1:42:37 policy
    1:42:37 in
    1:42:38 the
    1:42:38 1990
    1:42:38 Scott
    1:42:39 you’re
    1:42:39 saying
    1:42:39 damn
    1:42:40 wait a second
    1:42:41 the fact
    1:42:42 you’re
    1:42:42 sitting
    1:42:42 here
    1:42:42 saying
    1:42:51 don’t
    1:42:51 trust
    1:42:52 but
    1:42:52 be
    1:42:53 polite
    1:42:53 right
    1:42:54 that’s
    1:42:54 what
    1:42:54 he
    1:42:54 meant
    1:42:55 verify
    1:42:55 means
    1:42:56 we
    1:42:56 we
    1:42:57 know
    1:42:57 with
    1:42:57 sensors
    1:42:58 and
    1:42:58 cameras
    1:42:58 and
    1:42:59 inspections
    1:42:59 what’s
    1:42:59 going
    1:43:00 on
    1:43:00 no
    1:43:00 one
    1:43:01 can
    1:43:01 find
    1:43:01 a
    1:43:02 quote
    1:43:02 that
    1:43:02 I
    1:43:02 said
    1:43:02 here
    1:43:03 about
    1:43:03 how
    1:43:03 we
    1:43:03 can
    1:43:04 trust
    1:43:04 the
    1:43:05 Ayatollah
    1:43:05 because
    1:43:05 he
    1:43:06 promised
    1:43:06 this
    1:43:06 or
    1:43:06 that
    1:43:06 or
    1:43:07 the
    1:43:07 other
    1:43:07 thing
    1:43:07 I
    1:43:08 didn’t
    1:43:08 say
    1:43:08 that
    1:43:09 right
    1:43:09 what
    1:43:09 I’m
    1:43:10 talking
    1:43:10 about
    1:43:10 is
    1:43:11 the
    1:43:11 process
    1:43:12 they
    1:43:12 sign
    1:43:12 agreements
    1:43:13 and
    1:43:13 then
    1:43:13 we
    1:43:13 have
    1:43:14 inspectors
    1:43:14 to
    1:43:14 verify
    1:43:14 their
    1:43:15 claims
    1:43:15 and
    1:43:15 as
    1:43:16 anyone
    1:43:16 can
    1:43:16 search
    1:43:16 at
    1:43:17 IAEA.org
    1:43:18 they
    1:43:18 have
    1:43:18 continued
    1:43:19 to
    1:43:19 verify
    1:43:19 the
    1:43:20 non-diversion
    1:43:21 of
    1:43:21 nuclear
    1:43:21 material
    1:43:21 in
    1:43:22 Iran
    1:43:22 to
    1:43:22 any
    1:43:23 military
    1:43:23 or
    1:43:23 other
    1:43:23 special
    1:43:24 IAEA
    1:43:24 has
    1:43:24 now
    1:43:24 said
    1:43:25 that
    1:43:25 they
    1:43:25 actually
    1:43:25 can
    1:43:25 no
    1:43:26 longer
    1:43:26 do
    1:43:26 this
    1:43:27 before
    1:43:29 this
    1:43:29 war
    1:43:30 started
    1:43:30 so
    1:43:30 I
    1:43:30 mean
    1:43:30 at
    1:43:30 the
    1:43:31 end
    1:43:31 of
    1:43:31 the
    1:43:31 day
    1:43:31 let’s
    1:43:31 just
    1:43:31 be
    1:43:33 factually
    1:43:33 accurate
    1:43:34 and
    1:43:34 the
    1:43:34 fact
    1:43:34 of
    1:43:34 the
    1:43:34 matter
    1:43:35 is
    1:43:35 anybody
    1:43:35 who
    1:43:35 knows
    1:43:36 anything
    1:43:36 about
    1:43:36 nuclear
    1:43:37 weapons
    1:43:37 program
    1:43:38 knows
    1:43:38 that
    1:43:38 we
    1:43:38 do
    1:43:38 not
    1:43:39 have
    1:43:39 100%
    1:43:40 certainty
    1:43:40 on
    1:43:40 anything
    1:43:40 I
    1:43:41 mean
    1:43:41 Scott
    1:43:41 is
    1:43:42 making
    1:43:42 claims
    1:43:42 here
    1:43:43 that
    1:43:43 the
    1:43:44 Mossad
    1:43:44 is
    1:43:44 fabricating
    1:43:45 the CIA
    1:43:45 is
    1:43:45 fabricating
    1:43:46 everybody’s
    1:43:46 fabricating
    1:43:47 but he’s
    1:43:47 also
    1:43:47 assuming
    1:43:48 that
    1:43:48 we
    1:43:48 have
    1:43:48 100%
    1:43:49 certainty
    1:43:49 about
    1:43:49 what
    1:43:50 Iran
    1:43:50 is
    1:43:50 doing
    1:43:51 inside
    1:43:51 a
    1:43:51 country
    1:43:52 more
    1:43:52 than
    1:43:52 two
    1:43:52 and
    1:43:52 a
    1:43:52 half
    1:43:53 times
    1:43:53 the
    1:43:53 size
    1:43:53 of
    1:43:53 Texas
    1:43:54 as
    1:43:55 Scott
    1:43:55 rightly
    1:43:56 said
    1:43:56 mountainous
    1:43:57 incredibly
    1:43:57 difficult
    1:43:58 to
    1:43:58 monitor
    1:43:59 incredibly
    1:43:59 difficult
    1:43:59 to
    1:44:00 surveil
    1:44:00 they
    1:44:01 built
    1:44:01 underground
    1:44:02 facilities
    1:44:02 at
    1:44:02 Natanz
    1:44:03 and
    1:44:03 Fordow
    1:44:04 without
    1:44:04 our
    1:44:04 knowledge
    1:44:05 they
    1:44:05 didn’t
    1:44:05 disclose
    1:44:06 it
    1:44:06 we
    1:44:06 finally
    1:44:07 found
    1:44:07 out
    1:44:07 about
    1:44:07 it
    1:44:10 the
    1:44:10 fact
    1:44:10 of
    1:44:10 the
    1:44:12 facilities
    1:44:12 are
    1:44:12 there
    1:44:12 and
    1:44:13 by
    1:44:13 the
    1:44:13 way
    1:44:13 you
    1:44:13 keep
    1:44:13 saying
    1:44:14 that
    1:44:14 I
    1:44:14 just
    1:44:14 say
    1:44:14 lies
    1:44:15 lies
    1:44:15 lies
    1:44:15 but
    1:44:15 I
    1:44:16 have
    1:44:16 explained
    1:44:17 exactly
    1:44:17 what
    1:44:17 I
    1:44:17 meant
    1:44:18 I’ve
    1:44:18 cited
    1:44:18 my
    1:44:19 sources
    1:44:19 and
    1:44:19 I
    1:44:20 haven’t
    1:44:20 just
    1:44:20 sat
    1:44:21 here
    1:44:21 and
    1:44:22 that’s
    1:44:22 a
    1:44:27 exactly
    1:44:28 how
    1:44:28 I
    1:44:28 know
    1:44:28 what
    1:44:28 the
    1:44:29 IAEA
    1:44:29 said
    1:44:30 about
    1:44:30 the
    1:44:31 state
    1:44:31 of
    1:44:31 inspections
    1:44:32 here
    1:44:32 or
    1:44:32 what
    1:44:33 Robert
    1:44:34 Kelly
    1:44:34 told
    1:44:34 the
    1:44:34 Christian
    1:44:35 science
    1:44:35 monitor
    1:44:35 about
    1:44:36 Parchin
    1:44:36 and the
    1:44:36 rest
    1:44:37 and on
    1:44:37 and on
    1:44:38 and on
    1:44:38 you know
    1:44:38 I sit
    1:44:38 here
    1:44:39 like I’m
    1:44:39 just
    1:44:40 saying
    1:44:40 well that’s
    1:44:41 not true
    1:44:41 because I
    1:44:42 don’t like
    1:44:42 it
    1:44:42 when in
    1:44:42 fact
    1:44:42 I’m
    1:44:43 explaining
    1:44:43 exactly
    1:44:44 why
    1:44:44 your
    1:44:44 claims
    1:44:45 are not
    1:44:45 true
    1:44:45 which
    1:44:46 they’re
    1:44:46 not
    1:44:47 just
    1:44:47 like
    1:44:47 saying
    1:44:48 that
    1:44:48 I
    1:44:48 said
    1:44:49 I
    1:44:49 trust
    1:44:50 Hezbollah
    1:44:50 when
    1:44:50 anyone
    1:44:51 can
    1:44:51 rewind
    1:44:51 that
    1:44:51 and
    1:44:52 break
    1:44:53 their
    1:44:53 finger
    1:44:53 trying
    1:44:53 to
    1:44:53 find
    1:44:54 the
    1:44:54 part
    1:44:54 where
    1:44:54 I
    1:44:54 said
    1:44:54 that
    1:44:55 because
    1:44:55 I
    1:44:55 never
    1:44:55 did
    1:44:56 and
    1:44:57 now
    1:44:58 you
    1:44:58 brought
    1:44:58 up
    1:44:59 the
    1:45:00 DPRK
    1:45:00 well
    1:45:02 in
    1:45:03 2002
    1:45:03 when
    1:45:04 George W.
    1:45:04 Bush
    1:45:05 said
    1:45:05 that
    1:45:05 they
    1:45:05 were
    1:45:05 part
    1:45:05 of
    1:45:05 the
    1:45:05 axis
    1:45:06 of
    1:45:06 evil
    1:45:06 they
    1:45:06 were
    1:45:07 part
    1:45:07 of
    1:45:07 the
    1:45:07 NPT
    1:45:08 and
    1:45:08 they
    1:45:08 had
    1:45:08 a
    1:45:09 safeguards
    1:45:09 agreement
    1:45:09 with
    1:45:09 the
    1:45:10 IAEA
    1:45:11 and
    1:45:12 yes
    1:45:12 they
    1:45:12 had
    1:45:12 bought
    1:45:13 centrifuge
    1:45:13 equipment
    1:45:13 from
    1:45:14 AQ
    1:45:14 Con
    1:45:14 but
    1:45:14 they
    1:45:15 had
    1:45:15 not
    1:45:15 used
    1:45:15 it
    1:45:16 it
    1:45:16 was
    1:45:16 John
    1:45:16 Bolton’s
    1:45:17 lie
    1:45:17 that
    1:45:17 they
    1:45:18 were
    1:45:18 enriching
    1:45:18 uranium
    1:45:19 to
    1:45:19 weapons
    1:45:19 grade
    1:45:19 and
    1:45:20 violating
    1:45:20 the
    1:45:21 agreed
    1:45:21 framework
    1:45:22 John
    1:45:22 Bolton
    1:45:22 and
    1:45:23 George W.
    1:45:23 Bush
    1:45:24 in the fall
    1:45:24 of
    1:45:24 2002
    1:45:24 then
    1:45:25 canceled
    1:45:25 the
    1:45:25 agreed
    1:45:26 framework
    1:45:26 deal
    1:45:26 that
    1:45:26 Bill
    1:45:27 Clinton
    1:45:27 had
    1:45:27 struck
    1:45:28 based
    1:45:28 on
    1:45:28 this
    1:45:29 misinformation
    1:45:30 they
    1:45:30 added
    1:45:30 new
    1:45:31 sanctions
    1:45:32 and
    1:45:32 they
    1:45:32 launched
    1:45:32 what
    1:45:32 was
    1:45:33 called
    1:45:33 the
    1:45:33 proliferation
    1:45:34 security
    1:45:34 initiative
    1:45:35 which
    1:45:35 was
    1:45:35 an
    1:45:35 illegal
    1:45:36 and
    1:45:36 unilateral
    1:45:37 claim
    1:45:37 of the
    1:45:38 authority
    1:45:38 to
    1:45:38 seize
    1:45:38 any
    1:45:39 North
    1:45:39 Korean
    1:45:39 ship
    1:45:39 on
    1:45:39 the
    1:45:40 high
    1:45:40 seas
    1:45:40 if
    1:45:40 they
    1:45:41 suspected
    1:45:41 of
    1:45:42 proliferation
    1:45:42 and
    1:45:42 then
    1:45:43 they
    1:45:43 added
    1:45:43 them
    1:45:44 to
    1:45:44 the
    1:45:44 nuclear
    1:45:45 posture
    1:45:45 review
    1:45:46 putting
    1:45:46 them
    1:45:46 on
    1:45:46 the
    1:45:46 short
    1:45:47 list
    1:45:47 for
    1:45:47 a
    1:45:47 potential
    1:45:48 first
    1:45:48 strike
    1:45:48 and
    1:45:48 it
    1:45:49 was
    1:45:49 only
    1:45:49 then
    1:45:50 in
    1:45:51 the
    1:45:51 end
    1:45:51 of
    1:45:52 2002
    1:45:52 after
    1:45:52 these
    1:45:53 four or
    1:45:53 five
    1:45:54 major
    1:45:54 things
    1:45:54 that
    1:45:54 the
    1:45:54 Bush
    1:45:55 government
    1:45:55 did
    1:45:56 to
    1:45:56 antagonize
    1:45:56 them
    1:45:57 that
    1:45:57 North
    1:45:58 Korea
    1:45:58 then
    1:45:58 announced
    1:45:59 that
    1:45:59 they
    1:45:59 were
    1:45:59 going
    1:45:59 to
    1:45:59 withdraw
    1:46:00 from
    1:46:00 the
    1:46:00 treaty
    1:46:01 and
    1:46:01 begin
    1:46:01 making
    1:46:02 nuclear
    1:46:02 weapons
    1:46:02 which
    1:46:02 is
    1:46:02 what
    1:46:03 they
    1:46:03 did
    1:46:03 and
    1:46:03 then
    1:46:04 as
    1:46:04 we
    1:46:04 know
    1:46:05 from
    1:46:05 all
    1:46:05 the
    1:46:05 scientists
    1:46:05 say
    1:46:06 every
    1:46:06 time
    1:46:06 that
    1:46:06 they
    1:46:07 tested
    1:46:07 a
    1:46:07 nuclear
    1:46:08 bomb
    1:46:08 it’s
    1:46:08 been
    1:46:08 a
    1:46:09 plutonium
    1:46:09 bomb
    1:46:10 and
    1:46:10 never
    1:46:10 tested
    1:46:11 not
    1:46:11 never
    1:46:11 once
    1:46:12 used
    1:46:12 a
    1:46:12 uranium
    1:46:13 bomb
    1:46:13 there’s
    1:46:13 no
    1:46:14 evidence
    1:46:14 that
    1:46:14 John
    1:46:15 Bolton’s
    1:46:15 claims
    1:46:16 there
    1:46:16 that
    1:46:16 they
    1:46:16 were
    1:46:16 enriching
    1:46:17 uranium
    1:46:17 were
    1:46:17 ever
    1:46:17 true
    1:46:18 and
    1:46:18 they
    1:46:18 had
    1:46:19 you
    1:46:19 know
    1:46:19 Sig
    1:46:19 Hecker
    1:46:20 who’s
    1:46:20 this
    1:46:21 important
    1:46:21 American
    1:46:21 nuclear
    1:46:22 expert
    1:46:22 went
    1:46:22 and
    1:46:22 toured
    1:46:22 their
    1:46:23 facilities
    1:46:24 and
    1:46:24 all
    1:46:24 of
    1:46:24 these
    1:46:24 things
    1:46:24 and
    1:46:24 so
    1:46:25 we
    1:46:25 know
    1:46:26 quite
    1:46:26 a bit
    1:46:26 about
    1:46:26 what
    1:46:27 they
    1:46:27 have
    1:46:27 and
    1:46:27 it
    1:46:28 was
    1:46:29 simply
    1:46:29 Bush
    1:46:30 pushed
    1:46:30 North
    1:46:31 Korea
    1:46:31 to
    1:46:31 nukes
    1:46:31 as
    1:46:32 Gordon
    1:46:32 Prather
    1:46:32 wrote
    1:46:33 in
    1:46:33 his
    1:46:33 last
    1:46:33 great
    1:46:34 article
    1:46:34 for
    1:46:34 us
    1:46:35 at
    1:46:36 antiwar.com
    1:46:36 and
    1:46:36 it
    1:46:36 was
    1:46:36 through
    1:46:37 this
    1:46:37 exact
    1:46:37 kind
    1:46:37 of
    1:46:38 belligerence
    1:46:38 when
    1:46:38 we
    1:46:39 already
    1:46:39 had
    1:46:39 a
    1:46:39 deal
    1:46:40 that
    1:46:40 we
    1:46:40 could
    1:46:41 have
    1:46:42 in
    1:46:43 your
    1:46:44 analysis
    1:46:50 constant
    1:46:51 theme
    1:46:51 is
    1:46:51 the
    1:46:52 United
    1:46:52 States
    1:46:53 and
    1:46:53 Israel
    1:46:54 and
    1:46:54 the
    1:46:55 West
    1:46:55 we
    1:46:56 constantly
    1:46:57 aggress
    1:46:57 against
    1:46:58 North
    1:46:58 Korea
    1:46:59 against
    1:47:00 Iran
    1:47:00 against
    1:47:01 Russia
    1:47:02 against
    1:47:02 these
    1:47:03 countries
    1:47:03 and
    1:47:04 they
    1:47:04 respond
    1:47:04 to
    1:47:05 us
    1:47:07 in
    1:47:07 ways
    1:47:08 that
    1:47:09 they
    1:47:10 build
    1:47:11 nuclear
    1:47:11 weapons
    1:47:12 programs
    1:47:12 that
    1:47:12 are
    1:47:13 peaceful
    1:47:13 but
    1:47:13 we
    1:47:14 force
    1:47:14 them
    1:47:15 to
    1:47:15 develop
    1:47:16 nuclear
    1:47:16 weapons
    1:47:17 they
    1:47:17 don’t
    1:47:17 actually
    1:47:18 mean
    1:47:18 to
    1:47:18 kill
    1:47:19 us
    1:47:19 it’s
    1:47:19 not
    1:47:20 right
    1:47:22 that
    1:47:22 you’re
    1:47:23 saying
    1:47:23 that
    1:47:23 everything
    1:47:23 I
    1:47:24 say
    1:47:24 is
    1:47:24 that
    1:47:24 everyone
    1:47:25 anyone
    1:47:25 else
    1:47:25 does
    1:47:25 is
    1:47:26 a
    1:47:26 reaction
    1:47:26 but
    1:47:26 that’s
    1:47:26 not
    1:47:26 true
    1:47:27 the
    1:47:27 subject
    1:47:28 here
    1:47:28 is
    1:47:29 what
    1:47:29 has
    1:47:29 America
    1:47:30 done
    1:47:31 to
    1:47:31 make
    1:47:31 things
    1:47:32 worse
    1:47:32 rather
    1:47:32 than
    1:47:33 better
    1:47:33 I’m
    1:47:34 citing
    1:47:35 provocations
    1:47:36 that
    1:47:36 doesn’t
    1:47:36 mean
    1:47:36 I’m
    1:47:37 saying
    1:47:37 that
    1:47:37 everything
    1:47:38 that
    1:47:38 happens
    1:47:38 in
    1:47:38 the
    1:47:39 world
    1:47:39 is
    1:47:39 only
    1:47:40 an
    1:47:40 equal
    1:47:40 and
    1:47:40 opposite
    1:47:41 reaction
    1:47:41 to
    1:47:41 an
    1:47:42 American
    1:47:42 provocation
    1:47:43 and
    1:47:43 you
    1:47:43 can’t
    1:47:43 find
    1:47:43 me
    1:47:44 saying
    1:47:44 that
    1:47:44 you
    1:47:44 can
    1:47:45 somehow
    1:47:45 try to
    1:47:46 paraphrase
    1:47:46 me
    1:47:47 claiming
    1:47:47 that
    1:47:48 somehow
    1:47:48 or
    1:47:48 something
    1:47:48 like
    1:47:48 that
    1:47:49 but
    1:47:49 that’s
    1:47:49 what’s
    1:47:49 at
    1:47:50 issue
    1:47:50 right
    1:47:51 is
    1:47:51 as I
    1:47:51 said
    1:47:52 for
    1:47:52 example
    1:47:52 there’s
    1:47:53 the
    1:47:53 Reuters
    1:47:53 story
    1:47:53 that
    1:47:54 says
    1:47:54 that
    1:47:54 after
    1:47:54 Israel
    1:47:55 did
    1:47:55 the
    1:47:55 sabotage
    1:47:56 which
    1:47:56 bragged
    1:47:56 about
    1:47:56 at
    1:47:57 Natanz
    1:47:57 in
    1:47:58 April
    1:47:58 of
    1:47:58 21
    1:47:59 that
    1:47:59 was
    1:47:59 when
    1:47:59 they
    1:48:00 started
    1:48:00 enriching
    1:48:00 up
    1:48:01 to
    1:48:01 60
    1:48:01 percent
    1:48:02 okay
    1:48:02 so
    1:48:02 now
    1:48:03 I’m
    1:48:03 saying
    1:48:03 that
    1:48:03 and
    1:48:03 I’m
    1:48:04 just
    1:48:04 denying
    1:48:04 the
    1:48:05 agency
    1:48:05 of
    1:48:05 the
    1:48:06 Iranians
    1:48:06 or
    1:48:06 anything
    1:48:06 I said
    1:48:07 that
    1:48:07 no
    1:48:07 I’m
    1:48:07 not
    1:48:07 I’m
    1:48:07 just
    1:48:08 citing
    1:48:08 the
    1:48:08 Reuters
    1:48:08 news
    1:48:09 agency
    1:48:10 saying
    1:48:10 that
    1:48:11 this
    1:48:12 proactive
    1:48:13 action
    1:48:13 by
    1:48:14 Israel
    1:48:15 caused
    1:48:15 a
    1:48:15 negative
    1:48:16 reaction
    1:48:16 by
    1:48:16 your
    1:48:16 own
    1:48:17 lights
    1:48:17 a
    1:48:17 very
    1:48:18 negative
    1:48:18 reaction
    1:48:19 in
    1:48:19 their
    1:48:20 beginning
    1:48:20 to
    1:48:26 no
    1:48:26 one
    1:48:26 ever
    1:48:27 does
    1:48:27 anything
    1:48:28 except
    1:48:28 in
    1:48:28 reaction
    1:48:28 to
    1:48:29 Israel
    1:48:29 and
    1:48:30 America
    1:48:30 except
    1:48:30 that
    1:48:30 I’m
    1:48:31 just
    1:48:31 citing
    1:48:32 specific
    1:48:32 examples
    1:48:33 of
    1:48:33 where
    1:48:33 that’s
    1:48:33 exactly
    1:48:34 the
    1:48:34 case
    1:48:34 Donald
    1:48:35 Trump
    1:48:35 withdrew
    1:48:35 from
    1:48:35 the
    1:48:36 deal
    1:48:36 he
    1:48:36 could
    1:48:36 have
    1:48:36 stayed
    1:48:36 in
    1:48:37 the
    1:48:37 deal
    1:48:37 and
    1:48:37 tried
    1:48:37 hard
    1:48:37 to
    1:48:38 make
    1:48:38 it
    1:48:38 better
    1:48:38 he
    1:48:39 didn’t
    1:48:39 well
    1:48:39 he
    1:48:40 has
    1:48:40 done
    1:48:41 America
    1:48:41 he
    1:48:41 did
    1:48:42 try
    1:48:42 US
    1:48:42 government
    1:48:43 has
    1:48:43 made
    1:48:44 numerous
    1:48:45 mistakes
    1:48:45 if
    1:48:45 this
    1:48:45 podcast
    1:48:46 is
    1:48:46 all
    1:48:46 about
    1:48:47 American
    1:48:47 government
    1:48:48 and
    1:48:48 mistakes
    1:48:48 that’s
    1:48:48 made
    1:48:49 it’s
    1:48:49 a
    1:48:49 huge
    1:48:49 then
    1:48:49 we
    1:48:50 can
    1:48:50 spend
    1:48:50 four
    1:48:50 hours
    1:48:50 on
    1:48:51 it
    1:48:51 can
    1:48:51 we
    1:48:52 please
    1:48:53 get
    1:48:53 to
    1:48:53 today
    1:48:55 talk
    1:48:55 about
    1:48:55 use
    1:48:56 everything
    1:48:56 we
    1:48:56 just
    1:48:56 talked
    1:48:56 about
    1:48:57 and
    1:48:57 talk
    1:48:57 about
    1:48:58 today
    1:48:59 what
    1:48:59 is
    1:49:00 maybe
    1:49:00 Mark
    1:49:00 can
    1:49:01 you
    1:49:01 lay out
    1:49:01 what
    1:49:01 is
    1:49:01 the
    1:49:02 best
    1:49:02 case
    1:49:02 and
    1:49:02 worst
    1:49:02 case
    1:49:05 that
    1:49:05 can
    1:49:06 happen
    1:49:06 now
    1:49:06 so
    1:49:07 Lex
    1:49:07 I
    1:49:07 think
    1:49:07 the
    1:49:07 best
    1:49:08 case
    1:49:08 and
    1:49:08 something
    1:49:09 I’ve
    1:49:09 advocated
    1:49:10 for
    1:49:10 I’ve
    1:49:10 been
    1:49:10 working
    1:49:10 on
    1:49:11 this
    1:49:11 for
    1:49:11 22
    1:49:12 years
    1:49:13 is
    1:49:13 that
    1:49:13 the
    1:49:13 Iranians
    1:49:14 return
    1:49:14 to
    1:49:15 negotiations
    1:49:15 at
    1:49:15 Oman
    1:49:17 sit
    1:49:17 down
    1:49:17 with
    1:49:17 the
    1:49:17 United
    1:49:18 States
    1:49:18 and
    1:49:19 conclude
    1:49:19 an
    1:49:19 agreement
    1:49:20 that
    1:49:21 peacefully
    1:49:21 and
    1:49:22 permanently
    1:49:22 and
    1:49:22 fully
    1:49:23 dismantles
    1:49:23 their
    1:49:24 nuclear
    1:49:24 program
    1:49:25 they
    1:49:25 agree
    1:49:26 to
    1:49:26 that
    1:49:26 which
    1:49:26 means
    1:49:27 they
    1:49:27 shut
    1:49:28 down
    1:49:28 any
    1:49:28 remaining
    1:49:29 facilities
    1:49:29 they
    1:49:30 give
    1:49:30 up
    1:49:30 all
    1:49:30 the
    1:49:31 remaining
    1:49:31 centrifuges
    1:49:32 and
    1:49:32 enriched
    1:49:32 material
    1:49:32 that
    1:49:33 they
    1:49:33 could
    1:49:33 use
    1:49:33 to
    1:49:33 develop
    1:49:34 nuclear
    1:49:34 weapons
    1:49:35 they
    1:49:35 let
    1:49:35 the
    1:49:36 IAEA
    1:49:36 in
    1:49:37 in
    1:49:37 order
    1:49:37 to
    1:49:38 supervise
    1:49:39 this
    1:49:39 they
    1:49:41 actually
    1:49:41 commit
    1:49:42 to
    1:49:42 not
    1:49:43 rebuilding
    1:49:43 this
    1:49:43 nuclear
    1:49:44 program
    1:49:45 and
    1:49:45 we
    1:49:45 commit
    1:49:46 as
    1:49:46 we’ve
    1:49:46 done
    1:49:47 with
    1:49:47 23
    1:49:47 other
    1:49:48 countries
    1:49:48 to
    1:49:49 helping
    1:49:49 them
    1:49:50 provide
    1:49:51 civilian
    1:49:51 nuclear
    1:49:52 energy
    1:49:52 because
    1:49:52 it
    1:49:53 seems
    1:49:53 to
    1:49:53 me
    1:49:54 a
    1:49:54 little
    1:49:55 fanciful
    1:49:56 that
    1:49:57 Khamenei
    1:49:57 would
    1:49:58 build
    1:49:58 a
    1:49:59 civilian
    1:49:59 nuclear
    1:50:00 program
    1:50:01 under
    1:50:01 80
    1:50:01 meters
    1:50:02 of
    1:50:02 concrete
    1:50:03 surrounded
    1:50:03 by
    1:50:04 rock
    1:50:06 and
    1:50:06 take
    1:50:07 all
    1:50:07 the
    1:50:08 risks
    1:50:08 he’s
    1:50:08 taken
    1:50:09 and
    1:50:09 by
    1:50:09 the
    1:50:09 way
    1:50:09 he
    1:50:10 faces
    1:50:10 a
    1:50:10 risk
    1:50:10 to
    1:50:10 his
    1:50:11 regime
    1:50:12 spent
    1:50:13 a
    1:50:13 half
    1:50:13 a
    1:50:13 trillion
    1:50:14 dollars
    1:50:14 to
    1:50:14 do
    1:50:15 this
    1:50:15 when
    1:50:15 it
    1:50:16 makes
    1:50:16 no
    1:50:17 commercial
    1:50:17 sense
    1:50:18 but
    1:50:18 let’s
    1:50:19 take him
    1:50:19 at his
    1:50:19 word
    1:50:20 that he
    1:50:20 wants
    1:50:20 civilian
    1:50:21 nuclear
    1:50:21 energy
    1:50:21 let’s
    1:50:22 build
    1:50:22 it
    1:50:22 for him
    1:50:23 as long
    1:50:23 as there’s
    1:50:23 no
    1:50:24 enrichment
    1:50:26 or reprocessing
    1:50:26 that gives
    1:50:26 him the
    1:50:27 key
    1:50:27 capabilities
    1:50:28 that he
    1:50:28 could
    1:50:28 if he
    1:50:29 decides
    1:50:29 to build
    1:50:30 nuclear
    1:50:30 weapons
    1:50:30 that seems
    1:50:31 to me
    1:50:31 a
    1:50:31 thoughtful
    1:50:33 approach
    1:50:34 I think
    1:50:34 Scott would
    1:50:35 probably agree
    1:50:35 with it
    1:50:36 proliferation
    1:50:36 proof
    1:50:37 he can’t
    1:50:37 build
    1:50:37 nuclear
    1:50:38 weapons
    1:50:38 and we
    1:50:39 can do
    1:50:39 this
    1:50:41 what can
    1:50:42 Trump do
    1:50:42 to help
    1:50:43 make that
    1:50:43 happen
    1:50:44 I think
    1:50:44 what he
    1:50:45 can do
    1:50:45 is he
    1:50:46 can say
    1:50:46 to the
    1:50:47 Iranians
    1:50:47 look I
    1:50:47 made you
    1:50:48 that offer
    1:50:48 last time
    1:50:49 you
    1:50:50 rejected
    1:50:50 it
    1:50:51 now that
    1:50:51 offer is
    1:50:52 no longer
    1:50:52 on the
    1:50:52 table
    1:50:53 because that
    1:50:53 offer gave
    1:50:53 you
    1:50:54 enrichment
    1:50:54 equipment
    1:50:55 now
    1:50:55 temporarily
    1:50:56 but I
    1:50:56 now see
    1:50:57 the game
    1:50:57 that you
    1:50:57 would have
    1:50:57 played
    1:50:58 when I
    1:50:58 left
    1:50:59 office
    1:51:00 to turn
    1:51:00 that
    1:51:00 enrichment
    1:51:02 capability
    1:51:03 into
    1:51:03 nuclear
    1:51:03 weapons
    1:51:03 so
    1:51:05 that
    1:51:05 deal
    1:51:05 is
    1:51:05 off
    1:51:05 the
    1:51:06 table
    1:51:06 but here’s
    1:51:07 the deal
    1:51:07 that’s
    1:51:07 on the
    1:51:07 table
    1:51:07 it’s
    1:51:08 a
    1:51:08 one
    1:51:08 page
    1:51:08 deal
    1:51:09 you
    1:51:10 give
    1:51:10 up
    1:51:10 your
    1:51:10 nuclear
    1:51:11 capabilities
    1:51:12 we
    1:51:12 help
    1:51:13 you
    1:51:13 build
    1:51:14 civilian
    1:51:14 nuclear
    1:51:14 energy
    1:51:15 I
    1:51:15 think
    1:51:15 that’s
    1:51:16 best
    1:51:16 case
    1:51:17 I
    1:51:17 think
    1:51:18 worst
    1:51:18 case
    1:51:19 is
    1:51:20 that
    1:51:21 the
    1:51:21 Iranians
    1:51:22 do
    1:51:22 what
    1:51:22 they’ve
    1:51:22 unfortunately
    1:51:23 been
    1:51:23 doing
    1:51:24 and rejecting
    1:51:25 these
    1:51:25 deals
    1:51:26 and
    1:51:26 holding
    1:51:27 firm
    1:51:27 that
    1:51:27 they
    1:51:28 want
    1:51:28 to
    1:51:28 retain
    1:51:28 this
    1:51:29 enrichment
    1:51:29 capability
    1:51:30 and
    1:51:30 the
    1:51:31 only
    1:51:31 reason
    1:51:31 they
    1:51:31 want
    1:51:31 to
    1:51:32 retain
    1:51:32 enrichment
    1:51:32 capability
    1:51:33 is
    1:51:33 their
    1:51:33 option
    1:51:33 to
    1:51:34 develop
    1:51:34 nuclear
    1:51:34 weapons
    1:51:35 otherwise
    1:51:35 they
    1:51:35 can
    1:51:35 have
    1:51:36 civilian
    1:51:36 energy
    1:51:37 tomorrow
    1:51:37 makes
    1:51:38 much
    1:51:38 more
    1:51:38 commercial
    1:51:39 sense
    1:51:39 to do
    1:51:39 that
    1:51:40 and
    1:51:40 the
    1:51:40 entire
    1:51:41 international
    1:51:41 community
    1:51:42 would
    1:51:42 help
    1:51:42 them
    1:51:42 and
    1:51:42 pay
    1:51:42 for
    1:51:43 that
    1:51:44 I
    1:51:44 worry
    1:51:44 that
    1:51:44 they’re
    1:51:45 going
    1:51:45 to
    1:51:45 just
    1:51:45 remain
    1:51:46 intransigent
    1:51:46 at
    1:51:47 the
    1:51:47 negotiating
    1:51:47 table
    1:51:48 and I
    1:51:48 think
    1:51:49 if
    1:51:49 they
    1:51:49 do
    1:51:49 that
    1:51:50 then
    1:51:50 what
    1:51:50 I
    1:51:50 worry
    1:51:51 that
    1:51:51 they’re
    1:51:51 going
    1:51:51 to
    1:51:51 do
    1:51:52 is
    1:51:52 whatever
    1:51:52 remaining
    1:51:53 capabilities
    1:51:54 they have
    1:51:54 left
    1:51:55 they’ll
    1:51:55 bide
    1:51:55 their
    1:51:56 time
    1:51:57 they’ll
    1:51:57 wait
    1:51:57 for the
    1:51:58 opportunity
    1:51:58 maybe
    1:51:58 it’s
    1:51:58 not
    1:51:59 now
    1:51:59 maybe
    1:51:59 it’s
    1:51:59 Trump’s
    1:52:00 gone
    1:52:00 and
    1:52:00 they
    1:52:01 will
    1:52:01 rebuild
    1:52:01 this
    1:52:02 nuclear
    1:52:02 weapons
    1:52:03 program
    1:52:04 and
    1:52:04 they’ll
    1:52:04 be
    1:52:04 then
    1:52:05 inviting
    1:52:06 further
    1:52:07 strikes
    1:52:08 further
    1:52:08 war
    1:52:09 and
    1:52:10 further
    1:52:10 suffering
    1:52:11 and
    1:52:11 I
    1:52:11 worry
    1:52:11 that
    1:52:12 that
    1:52:12 is
    1:52:13 the
    1:52:13 worst
    1:52:13 case
    1:52:13 and
    1:52:14 by
    1:52:14 the
    1:52:14 way
    1:52:14 as part
    1:52:14 of
    1:52:14 that
    1:52:14 worst
    1:52:15 case
    1:52:15 in
    1:52:15 retaining
    1:52:15 the
    1:52:16 capabilities
    1:52:17 the
    1:52:18 extra
    1:52:18 worst
    1:52:18 case
    1:52:19 is
    1:52:19 they
    1:52:19 take
    1:52:19 those
    1:52:20 capabilities
    1:52:20 and
    1:52:20 they
    1:52:20 go
    1:52:20 for
    1:52:20 a
    1:52:21 nuclear
    1:52:21 bomb
    1:52:22 now
    1:52:22 if
    1:52:22 Scott’s
    1:52:22 right
    1:52:23 and
    1:52:23 the
    1:52:24 regime
    1:52:24 has
    1:52:24 never
    1:52:24 had
    1:52:24 any
    1:52:25 desire
    1:52:30 is
    1:52:31 been
    1:52:31 fabricated
    1:52:31 all
    1:52:32 of
    1:52:32 this
    1:52:32 has
    1:52:32 been
    1:52:33 result
    1:52:33 of
    1:52:33 U.S.
    1:52:33 and
    1:52:34 Israeli
    1:52:36 intelligence
    1:52:37 mendacity
    1:52:38 and we
    1:52:38 don’t have
    1:52:38 to worry
    1:52:39 about a
    1:52:39 nuclear
    1:52:39 weapon
    1:52:39 I
    1:52:40 personally
    1:52:40 worry
    1:52:41 about
    1:52:41 it
    1:52:41 knowing
    1:52:41 this
    1:52:42 regime
    1:52:43 looking
    1:52:43 at
    1:52:44 two
    1:52:44 and a
    1:52:44 half
    1:52:45 decades
    1:52:45 of
    1:52:46 nuclear
    1:52:46 deception
    1:52:47 I
    1:52:47 worry
    1:52:48 that
    1:52:48 they
    1:52:48 want
    1:52:48 to
    1:52:48 retain
    1:52:48 those
    1:52:49 capabilities
    1:52:50 and
    1:52:50 at
    1:52:50 time
    1:52:50 of
    1:52:51 their
    1:52:51 choosing
    1:52:52 develop
    1:52:53 a
    1:52:53 nuclear
    1:52:53 bomb
    1:52:53 so
    1:52:53 I
    1:52:54 think
    1:52:54 if
    1:52:54 you’re
    1:52:54 responsible
    1:52:55 and
    1:52:56 you’re
    1:52:56 trying
    1:52:56 to
    1:52:56 think
    1:52:56 through
    1:53:01 an
    1:53:02 possibility
    1:53:02 and
    1:53:02 you’ve
    1:53:02 got to
    1:53:02 try
    1:53:03 to
    1:53:03 mitigate
    1:53:03 that
    1:53:04 at
    1:53:04 the
    1:53:05 negotiating
    1:53:05 table
    1:53:06 through
    1:53:06 a
    1:53:06 full
    1:53:07 dismantlement
    1:53:07 deal
    1:53:08 or
    1:53:10 it’s
    1:53:10 the
    1:53:10 least
    1:53:13 good
    1:53:13 option
    1:53:14 for sure
    1:53:15 is
    1:53:15 you’re
    1:53:15 going to
    1:53:15 have to
    1:53:16 go back
    1:53:16 in
    1:53:16 there
    1:53:17 either
    1:53:17 the
    1:53:17 Israelis
    1:53:19 and
    1:53:19 or
    1:53:19 the
    1:53:19 United
    1:53:19 States
    1:53:20 and
    1:53:20 you’re
    1:53:20 going to
    1:53:20 have
    1:53:20 to
    1:53:21 continue
    1:53:21 to
    1:53:22 use
    1:53:22 both
    1:53:23 covert
    1:53:23 action
    1:53:24 and
    1:53:24 air
    1:53:24 power
    1:53:25 to
    1:53:25 destroy
    1:53:26 those
    1:53:26 capabilities
    1:53:26 can
    1:53:26 I
    1:53:27 just
    1:53:27 even
    1:53:28 dig
    1:53:28 in
    1:53:28 further
    1:53:29 on the
    1:53:29 worst
    1:53:29 case
    1:53:29 do
    1:53:29 you
    1:53:30 think
    1:53:30 it’s
    1:53:30 possible
    1:53:30 to
    1:53:30 have
    1:53:31 where
    1:53:32 U.S.
    1:53:33 gets
    1:53:33 pulled
    1:53:33 into
    1:53:34 a
    1:53:34 feet
    1:53:35 on
    1:53:35 the
    1:53:35 ground
    1:53:36 full
    1:53:36 on
    1:53:37 war
    1:53:37 with
    1:53:37 Iran
    1:53:39 I
    1:53:39 think
    1:53:39 one
    1:53:39 must
    1:53:39 never
    1:53:40 dismiss
    1:53:40 possibilities
    1:53:41 because
    1:53:41 as I
    1:53:41 said
    1:53:42 you’ve
    1:53:42 got to
    1:53:42 plan
    1:53:43 against
    1:53:43 worst
    1:53:44 case
    1:53:44 options
    1:53:45 and I
    1:53:45 think
    1:53:45 that’s
    1:53:45 what
    1:53:45 the
    1:53:45 Israel
    1:53:46 lobby
    1:53:46 has
    1:53:46 in
    1:53:46 store
    1:53:46 for
    1:53:47 you
    1:53:47 guys
    1:53:49 American
    1:53:49 lives
    1:53:49 mean
    1:53:50 nothing
    1:53:50 to
    1:53:50 the
    1:53:51 Israel
    1:53:51 first
    1:53:51 do
    1:53:51 they
    1:53:52 don’t
    1:53:52 care
    1:53:52 that
    1:53:52 Israel
    1:53:53 motivated
    1:53:53 September
    1:53:54 11th
    1:53:54 and killed
    1:53:55 3,000
    1:53:55 of our
    1:53:55 guys
    1:53:56 at the
    1:53:56 airport
    1:53:56 yesterday
    1:53:57 had a
    1:53:57 big
    1:53:57 American
    1:53:58 flag
    1:53:58 with all
    1:53:59 the red
    1:53:59 and white
    1:53:59 stripes
    1:54:00 made out
    1:54:00 of the
    1:54:00 names
    1:54:00 of the
    1:54:01 dead
    1:54:01 of
    1:54:01 September
    1:54:02 11th
    1:54:02 who
    1:54:02 were killed
    1:54:03 by people
    1:54:03 motivated
    1:54:04 by Israel’s
    1:54:05 crimes
    1:54:05 in
    1:54:06 Palestine
    1:54:06 and in
    1:54:06 Lebanon
    1:54:08 and enforcing
    1:54:09 Bill Clinton’s
    1:54:09 dual
    1:54:10 containment
    1:54:10 policy
    1:54:11 from
    1:54:12 Saudi
    1:54:12 Arabia
    1:54:12 they
    1:54:12 don’t
    1:54:13 care
    1:54:13 about
    1:54:13 that
    1:54:13 they
    1:54:13 don’t
    1:54:14 care
    1:54:14 about
    1:54:15 4,500
    1:54:15 Americans
    1:54:15 who
    1:54:16 died
    1:54:16 in
    1:54:16 Iraq
    1:54:16 War
    1:54:16 II
    1:54:17 or
    1:54:17 the
    1:54:17 million
    1:54:18 something
    1:54:18 people
    1:54:18 who
    1:54:19 died
    1:54:19 in
    1:54:19 Iraq
    1:54:19 War
    1:54:19 II
    1:54:19 the
    1:54:20 half
    1:54:20 a
    1:54:20 million
    1:54:20 in
    1:54:21 Syria
    1:54:21 as
    1:54:22 long
    1:54:22 as
    1:54:23 the
    1:54:23 Shiite
    1:54:24 crescent
    1:54:24 somehow
    1:54:24 is
    1:54:25 limited
    1:54:25 they’ll
    1:54:25 even
    1:54:26 celebrate
    1:54:27 openly
    1:54:27 I don’t
    1:54:27 know
    1:54:27 about
    1:54:27 him
    1:54:28 but
    1:54:28 I
    1:54:28 know
    1:54:28 Ben
    1:54:28 Shapiro
    1:54:29 and
    1:54:29 many
    1:54:29 other
    1:54:29 leaders
    1:54:30 of
    1:54:30 the
    1:54:30 Israel
    1:54:30 lobby
    1:54:30 in
    1:54:31 America
    1:54:32 celebrated
    1:54:32 the
    1:54:33 overthrow
    1:54:33 of Bashar
    1:54:34 al-Assad
    1:54:35 in Syria
    1:54:36 by
    1:54:36 Abu
    1:54:37 Mohammed
    1:54:37 al-Jolani
    1:54:38 the
    1:54:38 leader
    1:54:39 of
    1:54:39 al-Qaeda
    1:54:39 in
    1:54:40 Iraq
    1:54:40 in
    1:54:40 Syria
    1:54:41 why
    1:54:41 because
    1:54:41 he’s
    1:54:41 not
    1:54:41 a
    1:54:42 Shiite
    1:54:42 he’s
    1:54:42 not
    1:54:42 an
    1:54:43 Alawite
    1:54:43 friends
    1:54:44 with
    1:54:44 the
    1:54:44 Shiites
    1:54:44 and
    1:54:44 friends
    1:54:45 with
    1:54:45 Iran
    1:54:45 and
    1:54:45 friends
    1:54:46 with
    1:54:46 Hezbollah
    1:54:46 and
    1:54:47 so
    1:54:47 that’s
    1:54:47 good
    1:54:47 for
    1:54:48 Israel
    1:54:48 even
    1:54:48 though
    1:54:49 it’s
    1:54:49 the
    1:54:49 worst
    1:54:49 thing
    1:54:49 you
    1:54:50 could
    1:54:50 possibly
    1:54:50 imagine
    1:54:51 for
    1:54:51 the
    1:54:52 United
    1:54:52 States
    1:54:52 of
    1:54:52 America
    1:54:53 those
    1:54:53 sworn
    1:54:54 loyal
    1:54:54 to
    1:54:54 Osama
    1:54:54 bin
    1:54:55 Laden
    1:54:55 and
    1:54:55 Iman
    1:54:56 al-Zawahiri
    1:54:57 ruling
    1:54:57 Damascus
    1:54:58 now
    1:54:58 their
    1:54:59 own
    1:54:59 ISIS
    1:55:00 caliphate
    1:55:00 in
    1:55:00 our
    1:55:01 era
    1:55:01 and
    1:55:02 this
    1:55:02 is
    1:55:02 why
    1:55:02 they
    1:55:02 always
    1:55:03 pretend
    1:55:03 they
    1:55:04 go
    1:55:04 oh
    1:55:04 you
    1:55:04 know
    1:55:04 over
    1:55:05 there
    1:55:05 the
    1:55:05 Muslims
    1:55:05 the
    1:55:05 terrorists
    1:55:06 greatest
    1:55:06 state
    1:55:07 sponsors
    1:55:07 of
    1:55:07 terrorism
    1:55:09 it’s
    1:55:10 al-Qaeda
    1:55:10 that
    1:55:10 threatens
    1:55:10 the
    1:55:11 United
    1:55:11 States
    1:55:11 of
    1:55:12 America
    1:55:12 it
    1:55:12 wasn’t
    1:55:13 Hezbollah
    1:55:13 that
    1:55:13 knocked
    1:55:13 those
    1:55:14 towers
    1:55:14 down
    1:55:15 and
    1:55:15 they
    1:55:15 have
    1:55:16 us
    1:55:16 siding
    1:55:17 with
    1:55:17 our
    1:55:18 enemies
    1:55:18 against
    1:55:24 42nd
    1:55:24 Airborne
    1:55:24 in
    1:55:25 there
    1:55:25 whether
    1:55:26 Americans
    1:55:26 are
    1:55:26 going
    1:55:26 to
    1:55:26 have
    1:55:26 to
    1:55:26 do
    1:55:27 a
    1:55:27 regime
    1:55:28 change
    1:55:28 in
    1:55:28 Tehran
    1:55:28 I
    1:55:29 wish
    1:55:29 you’d
    1:55:29 listen
    1:55:29 and
    1:55:30 not
    1:55:30 put
    1:55:31 words
    1:55:31 in
    1:55:31 my
    1:55:31 mouth
    1:55:32 I
    1:55:33 heard
    1:55:33 what
    1:55:33 he
    1:55:33 said
    1:55:33 I
    1:55:34 forced
    1:55:34 them
    1:55:35 to
    1:55:35 say
    1:55:35 what
    1:55:36 the
    1:55:36 worst
    1:55:36 case
    1:55:37 possibility
    1:55:38 of
    1:55:38 a
    1:55:38 full
    1:55:38 on
    1:55:39 invasion
    1:55:39 as
    1:55:40 a
    1:55:40 thought
    1:55:40 experiment
    1:55:41 and
    1:55:41 you
    1:55:41 can
    1:55:41 let
    1:55:41 him
    1:55:42 finish
    1:55:42 that
    1:55:42 as
    1:55:42 opposed
    1:55:42 to
    1:55:43 making
    1:55:43 accusations
    1:55:44 let’s
    1:55:44 just
    1:55:44 minimize
    1:55:45 both
    1:55:45 ways
    1:55:46 accusations
    1:55:46 please
    1:55:47 let’s
    1:55:47 just
    1:55:47 talk
    1:55:47 about
    1:55:47 the
    1:55:48 ideas
    1:55:48 that’s
    1:55:49 the
    1:55:49 most
    1:55:49 charitable
    1:55:50 interpretation
    1:55:50 of
    1:55:50 those
    1:55:51 ideas
    1:55:52 I’m
    1:55:52 from
    1:55:52 the
    1:55:52 United
    1:55:52 States
    1:55:53 of
    1:55:53 America
    1:55:53 unlike
    1:55:54 him
    1:55:54 and
    1:55:54 I
    1:55:54 care
    1:55:54 about
    1:55:54 the
    1:55:55 future
    1:55:55 of
    1:55:55 this
    1:55:55 country
    1:55:56 unlike
    1:55:56 him
    1:55:57 who’s
    1:55:57 here
    1:55:57 to
    1:55:57 serve
    1:55:57 a
    1:55:58 foreign
    1:55:58 power
    1:55:59 and
    1:55:59 make
    1:55:59 their
    1:56:00 case
    1:56:00 at
    1:56:00 our
    1:56:01 expense
    1:56:01 Scott
    1:56:03 and next
    1:56:03 you’re
    1:56:03 going to
    1:56:03 say
    1:56:04 that
    1:56:04 I’m
    1:56:04 an
    1:56:05 American
    1:56:06 you’re
    1:56:06 just
    1:56:07 hosting
    1:56:07 the
    1:56:07 show
    1:56:07 I
    1:56:08 don’t
    1:56:08 know
    1:56:08 seems
    1:56:08 like
    1:56:08 you’re
    1:56:09 trying
    1:56:09 to
    1:56:09 be
    1:56:09 fair
    1:56:10 but
    1:56:11 he
    1:56:12 has
    1:56:12 an
    1:56:12 agenda
    1:56:13 he’s
    1:56:13 from
    1:56:13 the
    1:56:13 FDD
    1:56:14 stop
    1:56:15 it’s
    1:56:15 not
    1:56:16 about
    1:56:16 being
    1:56:16 fair
    1:56:17 the
    1:56:17 implication
    1:56:18 here
    1:56:19 is
    1:56:19 somebody
    1:56:19 is
    1:56:20 un-American
    1:56:20 because
    1:56:20 where
    1:56:20 they’re
    1:56:21 from
    1:56:21 I
    1:56:21 didn’t
    1:56:21 say
    1:56:22 anyone
    1:56:22 who’s
    1:56:23 not
    1:56:23 from
    1:56:23 here
    1:56:23 I’m
    1:56:24 talking
    1:56:24 about
    1:56:24 him
    1:56:25 okay
    1:56:26 I
    1:56:26 think
    1:56:26 that’s
    1:56:26 a
    1:56:27 really
    1:56:28 deeply
    1:56:28 disrespectful
    1:56:29 accusation
    1:56:30 I’m
    1:56:30 going to
    1:56:30 ask you
    1:56:31 does it
    1:56:31 bother
    1:56:31 you
    1:56:31 that
    1:56:32 when
    1:56:32 Naftali
    1:56:33 Bennett
    1:56:34 bombed
    1:56:34 a
    1:56:34 UN
    1:56:35 shelter
    1:56:35 full of
    1:56:36 106
    1:56:36 women
    1:56:36 and
    1:56:36 children
    1:56:37 in
    1:56:37 Lebanon
    1:56:38 in
    1:56:39 1996
    1:56:39 that
    1:56:39 that’s
    1:56:40 what
    1:56:40 motivated
    1:56:41 Mohammed
    1:56:41 Atta
    1:56:43 to join
    1:56:43 al-Qaeda
    1:56:43 and attack
    1:56:44 our towers
    1:56:44 I came to
    1:56:44 this country
    1:56:45 22 years
    1:56:45 ago
    1:56:46 I became
    1:56:46 a proud
    1:56:47 U.S.
    1:56:47 citizen
    1:56:48 10 years
    1:56:48 ago
    1:56:48 I’m
    1:56:49 proud
    1:56:49 to be
    1:56:49 an
    1:56:49 American
    1:56:50 and
    1:56:51 accusing
    1:56:51 me
    1:56:52 or
    1:56:52 Lex
    1:56:53 or any
    1:56:53 immigrants
    1:56:54 to this
    1:56:54 country
    1:56:54 of not
    1:56:54 being
    1:56:55 un-American
    1:56:55 is
    1:56:55 deeply
    1:56:56 offensive
    1:56:56 so
    1:56:56 let me
    1:56:57 answer
    1:56:57 Lex’s
    1:56:57 question
    1:56:58 Lex
    1:56:58 let’s
    1:56:58 get back
    1:56:58 to
    1:56:58 your
    1:56:59 question
    1:56:59 because
    1:56:59 I
    1:57:00 think
    1:57:00 it’s
    1:57:00 an
    1:57:00 important
    1:57:01 question
    1:57:01 what
    1:57:01 are
    1:57:02 the
    1:57:02 chain
    1:57:02 of
    1:57:02 events
    1:57:02 that
    1:57:03 could
    1:57:03 lead
    1:57:04 500,000
    1:57:04 mechanized
    1:57:04 U.S.
    1:57:05 troops
    1:57:05 to have
    1:57:05 to
    1:57:05 invade
    1:57:06 Iran
    1:57:06 which
    1:57:06 would
    1:57:06 be
    1:57:07 a
    1:57:07 disaster
    1:57:07 and
    1:57:08 that’s
    1:57:08 something
    1:57:08 we
    1:57:08 never
    1:57:08 want
    1:57:08 to
    1:57:09 see
    1:57:09 again
    1:57:09 that’s
    1:57:09 one
    1:57:09 of
    1:57:09 the
    1:57:10 lessons
    1:57:10 of
    1:57:11 Iraq
    1:57:11 and
    1:57:11 I
    1:57:11 think
    1:57:12 Scott
    1:57:12 has
    1:57:12 done
    1:57:12 a
    1:57:12 good
    1:57:12 job
    1:57:13 over
    1:57:13 the
    1:57:13 years
    1:57:14 in
    1:57:15 demonstrating
    1:57:16 that
    1:57:16 we
    1:57:16 don’t
    1:57:16 want
    1:57:16 to
    1:57:16 do
    1:57:16 that
    1:57:17 again
    1:57:17 so
    1:57:18 is
    1:57:18 there
    1:57:18 such
    1:57:19 a
    1:57:20 scenario
    1:57:21 I
    1:57:21 think
    1:57:21 one
    1:57:21 must
    1:57:21 never
    1:57:21 rule
    1:57:22 it
    1:57:22 out
    1:57:22 because
    1:57:22 there
    1:57:23 is
    1:57:23 a
    1:57:23 scenario
    1:57:24 for
    1:57:24 example
    1:57:25 where
    1:57:26 the
    1:57:26 regime
    1:57:27 collapses
    1:57:28 and
    1:57:28 the
    1:57:29 regime
    1:57:29 collapses
    1:57:29 and
    1:57:30 there’s
    1:57:30 chaos
    1:57:31 inside
    1:57:31 Iran
    1:57:32 not
    1:57:32 suggesting
    1:57:33 that’ll
    1:57:33 happen
    1:57:33 there
    1:57:33 are
    1:57:33 a
    1:57:33 whole
    1:57:34 bunch
    1:57:34 of
    1:57:34 scenarios
    1:57:34 maybe
    1:57:34 we
    1:57:39 but
    1:57:39 you
    1:57:40 could
    1:57:40 see
    1:57:40 a
    1:57:40 scenario
    1:57:40 where
    1:57:41 the
    1:57:41 United
    1:57:41 States
    1:57:41 would
    1:57:41 have
    1:57:41 to
    1:57:42 go
    1:57:42 in
    1:57:42 there
    1:57:42 in
    1:57:42 order
    1:57:42 to
    1:57:43 try
    1:57:43 to
    1:57:43 secure
    1:57:45 military
    1:57:46 and
    1:57:46 nuclear
    1:57:47 and
    1:57:47 missile
    1:57:48 assets
    1:57:49 so
    1:57:49 that
    1:57:49 it
    1:57:49 doesn’t
    1:57:49 end
    1:57:49 at
    1:57:50 the
    1:57:50 hands
    1:57:50 of
    1:57:51 warring
    1:57:53 factional
    1:57:53 and
    1:57:53 ethnic
    1:57:54 groups
    1:57:54 that
    1:57:54 Scott
    1:57:55 referred
    1:57:55 to
    1:57:55 because
    1:57:55 again
    1:57:55 as
    1:57:56 he’s
    1:57:56 rightly
    1:57:56 pointed
    1:57:57 out
    1:57:58 Iran
    1:57:58 is
    1:57:58 not
    1:57:58 Persia
    1:57:59 can’t
    1:57:59 the
    1:58:00 IDF
    1:58:00 handle
    1:58:00 it
    1:58:01 so
    1:58:01 can
    1:58:01 I
    1:58:02 just
    1:58:02 finish
    1:58:02 just
    1:58:03 who
    1:58:03 can
    1:58:03 handle
    1:58:05 I
    1:58:05 think
    1:58:05 that
    1:58:06 it’s
    1:58:06 a
    1:58:06 potential
    1:58:07 scenario
    1:58:07 which
    1:58:07 is
    1:58:07 why
    1:58:07 I
    1:58:07 don’t
    1:58:08 think
    1:58:08 anybody
    1:58:08 should
    1:58:09 be
    1:58:09 advocating
    1:58:10 for
    1:58:11 a
    1:58:11 US
    1:58:12 decapitation
    1:58:13 of
    1:58:13 the
    1:58:13 regime
    1:58:13 in
    1:58:13 Iran
    1:58:14 I
    1:58:14 have
    1:58:14 long
    1:58:15 been
    1:58:16 on
    1:58:16 record
    1:58:16 as
    1:58:16 supporting
    1:58:16 the
    1:58:17 Iranian
    1:58:17 people
    1:58:18 providing
    1:58:19 support
    1:58:19 to
    1:58:19 the
    1:58:19 Iranian
    1:58:20 people
    1:58:20 to
    1:58:20 at
    1:58:20 one
    1:58:21 point
    1:58:21 take
    1:58:21 back
    1:58:21 their
    1:58:22 country
    1:58:22 and
    1:58:22 take
    1:58:22 back
    1:58:22 their
    1:58:23 flag
    1:58:23 it’s
    1:58:23 very
    1:58:24 much
    1:58:24 sort
    1:58:24 of
    1:58:24 Reagan
    1:58:25 strategy
    1:58:25 that
    1:58:25 Reagan
    1:58:25 ran
    1:58:25 in
    1:58:25 the
    1:58:26 Cold
    1:58:27 war
    1:58:27 of
    1:58:28 maximum
    1:58:28 pressure
    1:58:28 on
    1:58:28 the
    1:58:29 regime
    1:58:29 maximum
    1:58:30 support
    1:58:30 for
    1:58:31 anti-Soviet
    1:58:31 dissidents
    1:58:31 while
    1:58:32 by the
    1:58:32 way
    1:58:32 he
    1:58:32 was
    1:58:33 negotiating
    1:58:33 arms
    1:58:33 control
    1:58:33 agreements
    1:58:34 for
    1:58:34 the
    1:58:34 Soviet
    1:58:34 Union
    1:58:35 in
    1:58:35 order
    1:58:35 to
    1:58:35 try
    1:58:36 reduce
    1:58:36 the
    1:58:36 number
    1:58:36 of
    1:58:37 nuclear
    1:58:37 tipped
    1:58:38 ICBMs
    1:58:38 that
    1:58:38 both
    1:58:39 countries
    1:58:39 had
    1:58:39 pointed
    1:58:40 at
    1:58:40 each
    1:58:40 other
    1:58:40 so
    1:58:41 I
    1:58:41 think
    1:58:41 the
    1:58:41 Reagan
    1:58:42 strategy
    1:58:42 of
    1:58:42 providing
    1:58:43 support
    1:58:43 to
    1:58:43 the
    1:58:43 people
    1:58:44 is
    1:58:44 a
    1:58:44 far
    1:58:44 better
    1:58:45 strategy
    1:58:45 for
    1:58:46 trying
    1:58:46 to
    1:58:46 get
    1:58:47 transition
    1:58:48 leadership
    1:58:48 transition
    1:58:49 government
    1:58:50 transition
    1:58:50 inside
    1:58:51 Iran
    1:58:51 but
    1:58:51 I
    1:58:51 think
    1:58:51 the
    1:58:52 scenario
    1:58:52 of
    1:58:53 decapitation
    1:58:54 strikes
    1:58:54 killing
    1:58:54 Khamenei
    1:58:55 taking
    1:58:55 out
    1:58:55 the
    1:58:55 entire
    1:58:56 government
    1:58:57 could
    1:58:57 potentially
    1:58:57 lead
    1:58:58 to
    1:58:58 that
    1:58:58 scenario
    1:58:58 and
    1:58:58 I
    1:58:58 think
    1:58:58 we
    1:58:59 have
    1:58:59 to
    1:58:59 be
    1:59:00 conscious
    1:59:00 of
    1:59:00 that
    1:59:01 we
    1:59:01 have
    1:59:01 to
    1:59:01 guard
    1:59:01 against
    1:59:02 that
    1:59:02 I
    1:59:03 think
    1:59:03 Scott’s
    1:59:03 right
    1:59:04 if
    1:59:04 a
    1:59:05 scenario
    1:59:05 happened
    1:59:05 like
    1:59:06 that
    1:59:06 I
    1:59:07 think
    1:59:07 the
    1:59:08 Israelis
    1:59:08 have
    1:59:08 demonstrated
    1:59:09 extraordinary
    1:59:10 capabilities
    1:59:11 and they
    1:59:11 could go
    1:59:11 in there
    1:59:12 and they
    1:59:12 could
    1:59:12 secure
    1:59:13 loose
    1:59:14 nuclear
    1:59:14 materials
    1:59:15 that you
    1:59:15 would
    1:59:15 be
    1:59:15 worried
    1:59:16 could
    1:59:16 be
    1:59:18 fashion
    1:59:18 for
    1:59:18 nuclear
    1:59:19 weapons
    1:59:19 Scott
    1:59:20 doesn’t
    1:59:20 seem
    1:59:20 to
    1:59:20 worry
    1:59:20 about
    1:59:20 these
    1:59:21 materials
    1:59:21 I
    1:59:21 worry
    1:59:21 about
    1:59:22 these
    1:59:22 materials
    1:59:22 and
    1:59:23 capabilities
    1:59:23 in the
    1:59:23 hands
    1:59:24 of
    1:59:24 anybody
    1:59:25 because
    1:59:25 they’re
    1:59:25 all
    1:59:26 capabilities
    1:59:26 that
    1:59:26 just
    1:59:26 the
    1:59:27 physics
    1:59:27 of
    1:59:27 it
    1:59:27 you
    1:59:27 can
    1:59:28 produce
    1:59:28 nuclear
    1:59:28 weapons
    1:59:29 so
    1:59:30 best
    1:59:30 case
    1:59:31 scenario
    1:59:32 negotiation
    1:59:33 we
    1:59:33 fully
    1:59:33 dismantle
    1:59:33 their
    1:59:34 program
    1:59:34 in
    1:59:34 Amman
    1:59:35 worst
    1:59:36 case
    1:59:36 scenario
    1:59:37 is
    1:59:37 having
    1:59:38 to
    1:59:38 return
    1:59:39 for
    1:59:39 continued
    1:59:40 military
    1:59:41 strikes
    1:59:41 that
    1:59:42 continue
    1:59:42 to
    1:59:43 escalate
    1:59:43 the
    1:59:43 situation
    1:59:44 worst
    1:59:44 worst
    1:59:45 situation
    1:59:45 some
    1:59:45 kind
    1:59:45 of
    1:59:46 decapitation
    1:59:46 strike
    1:59:47 that
    1:59:47 collapses
    1:59:48 the
    1:59:48 regime
    1:59:48 and
    1:59:49 causes
    1:59:49 chaos
    1:59:50 there
    1:59:50 are
    1:59:50 a whole
    1:59:50 bunch
    1:59:50 of
    1:59:50 other
    1:59:51 scenarios
    1:59:51 we
    1:59:51 can
    1:59:51 talk
    1:59:52 about
    1:59:52 that
    1:59:52 are
    1:59:52 embedded
    1:59:53 in
    1:59:53 that
    1:59:53 but
    1:59:53 I
    1:59:54 think
    1:59:54 if
    1:59:54 you’re
    1:59:54 a
    1:59:54 responsible
    1:59:55 person
    1:59:55 and
    1:59:55 a
    1:59:56 responsible
    1:59:56 analyst
    1:59:56 and
    1:59:57 certainly
    1:59:57 you’re
    1:59:57 a
    1:59:57 responsible
    1:59:58 policy
    1:59:58 maker
    1:59:59 you’ve
    1:59:59 got to
    1:59:59 be
    1:59:59 planning
    1:59:59 for
    2:00:00 all
    2:00:00 of
    2:00:00 these
    2:00:00 scenarios
    2:00:01 and
    2:00:01 more
    2:00:02 Scott
    2:00:02 what do
    2:00:02 you
    2:00:02 think
    2:00:02 is
    2:00:02 the
    2:00:03 best
    2:00:03 case
    2:00:03 and
    2:00:03 worst
    2:00:04 case
    2:00:04 here
    2:00:05 well
    2:00:05 the
    2:00:05 best
    2:00:05 case
    2:00:06 scenario
    2:00:06 is
    2:00:06 that
    2:00:07 we
    2:00:07 quit
    2:00:07 right
    2:00:07 now
    2:00:08 and
    2:00:08 that
    2:00:08 we
    2:00:10 Trump
    2:00:10 figures
    2:00:10 out
    2:00:10 a
    2:00:10 way
    2:00:11 to
    2:00:12 reorder
    2:00:12 some
    2:00:12 paragraphs
    2:00:13 and
    2:00:13 get
    2:00:14 back
    2:00:14 in
    2:00:14 something
    2:00:15 like
    2:00:15 the
    2:00:16 JCPOA
    2:00:16 which
    2:00:16 was
    2:00:17 also
    2:00:17 signed
    2:00:17 with the
    2:00:17 rest
    2:00:18 UN
    2:00:18 security
    2:00:18 council
    2:00:19 power
    2:00:19 can
    2:00:19 ask
    2:00:19 you
    2:00:20 like
    2:00:20 is
    2:00:21 JCPOA
    2:00:21 is
    2:00:21 a
    2:00:21 pretty
    2:00:21 good
    2:00:22 approximation
    2:00:22 of
    2:00:22 what
    2:00:23 would
    2:00:23 be
    2:00:23 a
    2:00:23 good
    2:00:23 deal
    2:00:24 pretty
    2:00:24 good
    2:00:24 it
    2:00:24 could
    2:00:24 have
    2:00:25 been
    2:00:25 better
    2:00:25 as I
    2:00:25 said
    2:00:26 at
    2:00:26 the
    2:00:26 beginning
    2:00:26 Trump
    2:00:26 could
    2:00:27 have
    2:00:27 gone
    2:00:27 in
    2:00:27 there
    2:00:27 and
    2:00:27 tried
    2:00:27 to
    2:00:28 negotiate
    2:00:29 a
    2:00:29 better
    2:00:30 result
    2:00:30 with
    2:00:30 the
    2:00:30 sunset
    2:00:31 provisions
    2:00:31 on
    2:00:31 some
    2:00:31 of
    2:00:31 those
    2:00:32 things
    2:00:32 but
    2:00:34 the
    2:00:35 concept
    2:00:35 that
    2:00:35 America
    2:00:36 is
    2:00:36 going
    2:00:36 to
    2:00:36 insist
    2:00:37 on
    2:00:37 zero
    2:00:37 enrichment
    2:00:38 zero
    2:00:38 nuclear
    2:00:39 program
    2:00:39 whatsoever
    2:00:48 it’s
    2:00:48 a
    2:00:49 poison
    2:00:49 pill
    2:00:49 it’s
    2:00:49 meant
    2:00:50 to
    2:00:50 fail
    2:00:50 just
    2:00:51 like
    2:00:51 it
    2:00:51 was
    2:00:51 a
    2:00:52 poison
    2:00:52 pill
    2:00:52 meant
    2:00:53 to
    2:00:53 destroy
    2:00:53 the
    2:00:53 talks
    2:00:54 here
    2:00:54 good
    2:00:54 enough
    2:00:55 to
    2:00:55 start
    2:00:55 a
    2:00:55 war
    2:00:56 again
    2:00:56 as I
    2:00:57 quoted
    2:00:57 from
    2:00:58 earlier
    2:01:00 he
    2:01:00 said
    2:01:01 on
    2:01:01 on TV
    2:01:01 last
    2:01:02 week
    2:01:02 well
    2:01:03 America
    2:01:03 has
    2:01:03 to
    2:01:03 take
    2:01:04 out
    2:01:04 Fordo
    2:01:04 now
    2:01:04 because
    2:01:05 now
    2:01:05 they’re
    2:01:05 more
    2:01:06 likely
    2:01:06 to
    2:01:06 break
    2:01:06 out
    2:01:07 towards
    2:01:07 a
    2:01:07 nuke
    2:01:07 I
    2:01:07 think
    2:01:08 that’s
    2:01:08 exactly
    2:01:09 right
    2:01:09 so
    2:01:10 there
    2:01:10 still
    2:01:11 is
    2:01:11 or
    2:01:12 there’s
    2:01:12 strong
    2:01:13 reason
    2:01:20 to
    2:01:21 point
    2:01:21 of
    2:01:21 fact
    2:01:22 sort
    2:01:22 of
    2:01:22 interesting
    2:01:23 we’ll
    2:01:23 see
    2:01:23 on the
    2:01:23 battle
    2:01:24 damage
    2:01:24 assessment
    2:01:24 but
    2:01:24 they
    2:01:25 actually
    2:01:25 think
    2:01:25 the
    2:01:26 facility
    2:01:26 was
    2:01:26 destroyed
    2:01:26 and
    2:01:27 that
    2:01:27 the
    2:01:28 sensitive
    2:01:29 centrifuges
    2:01:29 were
    2:01:30 destroyed
    2:01:30 so
    2:01:30 just
    2:01:31 interesting
    2:01:31 for
    2:01:31 the
    2:01:31 viewers
    2:01:32 and
    2:01:32 it
    2:01:33 may
    2:01:33 be
    2:01:33 premature
    2:01:34 all
    2:01:34 the
    2:01:34 uranium
    2:01:36 mines
    2:01:36 and
    2:01:37 all
    2:01:37 the
    2:01:37 aluminum
    2:01:38 smelters
    2:01:38 so
    2:01:38 that
    2:01:38 they
    2:01:38 can’t
    2:01:38 make
    2:01:39 any
    2:01:39 more
    2:01:40 centrifuges
    2:01:41 they’ve
    2:01:41 already
    2:01:42 they know
    2:01:42 how to
    2:01:42 make
    2:01:43 centrifuges
    2:01:43 so
    2:01:44 at
    2:01:44 this
    2:01:44 point
    2:01:45 you know
    2:01:46 in
    2:01:46 for
    2:01:47 this
    2:01:47 is
    2:01:48 why
    2:01:48 government
    2:01:48 doesn’t
    2:01:48 work
    2:01:49 they
    2:01:49 make
    2:01:49 matters
    2:01:49 worse
    2:01:50 and
    2:01:50 create
    2:01:50 more
    2:01:50 work
    2:01:50 for
    2:01:51 themselves
    2:01:51 and
    2:01:51 make
    2:01:51 things
    2:01:52 worse
    2:01:52 and
    2:01:52 worse
    2:01:52 and
    2:01:52 worse
    2:01:53 we can
    2:01:53 make
    2:01:53 the
    2:01:53 same
    2:01:54 criticism
    2:01:54 about
    2:01:55 Russia’s
    2:01:55 invasion
    2:01:56 of
    2:01:56 Ukraine
    2:01:56 making
    2:01:57 matters
    2:01:57 worse
    2:01:57 for
    2:01:58 themselves
    2:01:58 and
    2:01:58 causing
    2:01:59 them
    2:01:59 to
    2:02:00 escalate
    2:02:00 even
    2:02:00 further
    2:02:01 now
    2:02:01 America’s
    2:02:01 in
    2:02:01 the
    2:02:02 situation
    2:02:02 where
    2:02:03 the
    2:02:04 danger
    2:02:04 that
    2:02:04 Iran
    2:02:05 will
    2:02:05 now
    2:02:05 break
    2:02:05 out
    2:02:06 to
    2:02:06 a
    2:02:06 nuke
    2:02:06 is
    2:02:13 Ayatollah
    2:02:13 but
    2:02:14 Benjamin
    2:02:14 Netanyahu
    2:02:15 says
    2:02:15 we
    2:02:15 should
    2:02:16 he
    2:02:16 said
    2:02:16 just
    2:02:16 the
    2:02:17 other
    2:02:17 day
    2:02:17 that
    2:02:18 if
    2:02:18 we
    2:02:18 get
    2:02:18 rid
    2:02:18 of
    2:02:18 the
    2:02:19 Ayatollah
    2:02:19 that
    2:02:19 will
    2:02:20 solve
    2:02:20 all
    2:02:21 the
    2:02:21 problems
    2:02:22 which
    2:02:22 is
    2:02:22 just
    2:02:23 crazy
    2:02:23 to
    2:02:23 think
    2:02:23 that
    2:02:24 they
    2:02:24 have
    2:02:24 Israeli
    2:02:25 officials
    2:02:25 have
    2:02:25 been
    2:02:25 tweeting
    2:02:25 out
    2:02:25 pictures
    2:02:26 and
    2:02:26 palling
    2:02:26 around
    2:02:27 with
    2:02:27 the
    2:02:27 son
    2:02:27 of
    2:02:27 the
    2:02:28 shah
    2:02:28 talking
    2:02:29 about
    2:02:29 reinstalling
    2:02:30 his
    2:02:30 royal
    2:02:31 majesty’s
    2:02:32 monarchy
    2:02:33 sock
    2:02:33 puppet
    2:02:34 dictatorship
    2:02:35 that’s
    2:02:36 taking
    2:02:36 back
    2:02:36 Iran
    2:02:37 for
    2:02:37 the
    2:02:37 people
    2:02:37 of
    2:02:38 Iran
    2:02:39 giving
    2:02:39 them
    2:02:39 over
    2:02:39 to
    2:02:40 a
    2:02:40 bunch
    2:02:40 of
    2:02:40 foreign
    2:02:41 backed
    2:02:41 exiles
    2:02:42 was that
    2:02:42 what
    2:02:43 Trump
    2:02:43 meant
    2:02:43 when he
    2:02:43 gave
    2:02:43 that
    2:02:44 speech
    2:02:44 in
    2:02:44 Qatar
    2:02:44 saying
    2:02:44 we
    2:02:44 don’t
    2:02:45 believe
    2:02:45 in
    2:02:46 neoconservatism
    2:02:46 and spreading
    2:02:47 democracy
    2:02:47 anymore
    2:02:47 he’s
    2:02:48 just
    2:02:48 setting
    2:02:48 up
    2:02:48 because
    2:02:48 we’re
    2:02:48 going
    2:02:48 to
    2:02:49 reinstall
    2:02:49 a
    2:02:50 monarch
    2:02:50 can
    2:02:50 you
    2:02:50 go
    2:02:51 into
    2:02:51 the
    2:02:51 analysis
    2:02:51 of
    2:02:52 best
    2:02:52 case
    2:02:52 and
    2:02:52 worst
    2:02:52 case
    2:02:52 you
    2:02:53 laid out
    2:02:53 the
    2:02:53 best
    2:02:53 case
    2:02:54 what
    2:02:57 was
    2:02:57 the
    2:02:57 best
    2:02:58 case
    2:02:59 is
    2:02:59 a
    2:02:59 deal
    2:03:00 you
    2:03:02 guys
    2:03:02 agree
    2:03:03 on the
    2:03:03 best
    2:03:03 yeah
    2:03:04 respect
    2:03:04 their
    2:03:05 right
    2:03:05 to a
    2:03:05 civilian
    2:03:06 nuclear
    2:03:06 program
    2:03:07 and try
    2:03:07 to
    2:03:08 negotiate
    2:03:08 as I
    2:03:09 said
    2:03:09 back
    2:03:09 into
    2:03:10 something
    2:03:10 like
    2:03:10 the
    2:03:11 JCPOA
    2:03:11 which
    2:03:11 again
    2:03:12 had
    2:03:12 them
    2:03:12 exporting
    2:03:13 their
    2:03:13 entire
    2:03:14 stockpile
    2:03:15 of uranium
    2:03:15 out of
    2:03:15 the
    2:03:15 country
    2:03:16 he
    2:03:16 wants
    2:03:16 no
    2:03:17 nuclear
    2:03:17 program
    2:03:20 well
    2:03:21 no
    2:03:21 enrichment
    2:03:22 capability
    2:03:23 entire
    2:03:23 dependence
    2:03:24 on
    2:03:24 other
    2:03:24 countries
    2:03:25 to
    2:03:25 supply
    2:03:25 their
    2:03:26 fuel
    2:03:26 needs
    2:03:26 can
    2:03:26 you
    2:03:26 teach
    2:03:26 me
    2:03:27 the
    2:03:27 difference
    2:03:27 when
    2:03:27 we
    2:03:28 just
    2:03:29 step
    2:03:29 back
    2:03:29 from
    2:03:29 this
    2:03:29 because
    2:03:30 we
    2:03:30 agree
    2:03:30 on
    2:03:30 some
    2:03:30 and
    2:03:31 we
    2:03:31 disagree
    2:03:31 on
    2:03:32 a
    2:03:32 major
    2:03:32 issue
    2:03:33 and
    2:03:33 that
    2:03:33 if
    2:03:33 we
    2:03:33 both
    2:03:34 agree
    2:03:34 Iran
    2:03:34 deserves
    2:03:35 a
    2:03:35 civilian
    2:03:36 nuclear
    2:03:36 program
    2:03:36 the
    2:03:37 Ayatollah
    2:03:37 is
    2:03:37 never
    2:03:38 going
    2:03:38 to
    2:03:38 give
    2:03:38 in
    2:03:39 on
    2:03:39 enrichment
    2:03:40 can
    2:03:40 I
    2:03:40 just
    2:03:40 we
    2:03:40 know
    2:03:41 that
    2:03:41 that
    2:03:41 that’s
    2:03:41 a
    2:03:41 premise
    2:03:42 for
    2:03:49 that
    2:03:49 Scott
    2:03:50 I
    2:03:50 think
    2:03:50 it’s
    2:03:50 again
    2:03:50 important
    2:03:51 the
    2:03:51 distinction
    2:03:52 here
    2:03:52 right
    2:03:52 we
    2:03:53 both
    2:03:53 agree
    2:03:54 that
    2:03:54 Iran
    2:03:54 deserves
    2:03:55 a
    2:03:55 civilian
    2:03:55 nuclear
    2:03:56 program
    2:03:57 23
    2:03:57 countries
    2:03:58 have
    2:03:58 civilian
    2:03:58 nuclear
    2:03:59 programs
    2:03:59 and
    2:03:59 they
    2:03:59 don’t
    2:04:00 have
    2:04:00 enrichment
    2:04:00 and
    2:04:01 they
    2:04:01 don’t
    2:04:01 have
    2:04:02 reprocessing
    2:04:02 where
    2:04:02 we
    2:04:03 differ
    2:04:03 is
    2:04:04 I
    2:04:04 don’t
    2:04:04 think
    2:04:04 Iran
    2:04:05 should
    2:04:05 have
    2:04:06 the
    2:04:06 Iran
    2:04:07 standard
    2:04:07 I
    2:04:07 think
    2:04:07 that
    2:04:08 Iran
    2:04:08 should
    2:04:08 agree
    2:04:08 to
    2:04:09 the
    2:04:09 gold
    2:04:09 standard
    2:04:10 the
    2:04:10 23
    2:04:10 US
    2:04:11 allies
    2:04:11 have
    2:04:11 agreed
    2:04:11 to
    2:04:12 so
    2:04:12 have
    2:04:13 civilian
    2:04:13 nuclear
    2:04:13 program
    2:04:14 but
    2:04:14 you
    2:04:14 don’t
    2:04:14 get
    2:04:15 to
    2:04:15 keep
    2:04:15 the
    2:04:15 key
    2:04:16 enrichment
    2:04:16 and
    2:04:17 reprocessing
    2:04:17 capabilities
    2:04:17 that
    2:04:17 you
    2:04:18 need
    2:04:18 to
    2:04:18 develop
    2:04:18 nuclear
    2:04:19 weapons
    2:04:19 do
    2:04:19 you
    2:04:19 think
    2:04:19 that
    2:04:20 Bill
    2:04:20 Clinton
    2:04:20 should
    2:04:20 have
    2:04:20 just
    2:04:20 let
    2:04:21 the
    2:04:21 Chinese
    2:04:21 sell
    2:04:21 them
    2:04:21 the
    2:04:22 light
    2:04:22 water
    2:04:22 reactor
    2:04:22 that
    2:04:23 they
    2:04:23 wanted
    2:04:23 to
    2:04:23 back
    2:04:23 in
    2:04:23 the
    2:04:24 90s
    2:04:24 yeah
    2:04:25 and
    2:04:25 America
    2:04:25 of course
    2:04:26 allowed
    2:04:26 Russia
    2:04:26 to
    2:04:26 sell
    2:04:27 them
    2:04:27 a
    2:04:27 heavy
    2:04:27 water
    2:04:28 reactor
    2:04:28 for
    2:04:28 the
    2:04:28 same
    2:04:28 purpose
    2:04:29 but
    2:04:29 I
    2:04:29 agree
    2:04:30 with
    2:04:30 Scott
    2:04:30 that
    2:04:31 I
    2:04:31 think
    2:04:31 one
    2:04:31 of
    2:04:31 the
    2:04:32 ways
    2:04:32 out
    2:04:32 of
    2:04:33 this
    2:04:33 is
    2:04:34 yes
    2:04:34 whether
    2:04:34 it’s
    2:04:35 the
    2:04:35 Chinese
    2:04:36 or
    2:04:37 preferably
    2:04:38 as
    2:04:38 an
    2:04:38 American
    2:04:38 I
    2:04:39 prefer
    2:04:39 the
    2:04:39 Americans
    2:04:40 actually
    2:04:40 sell
    2:04:42 reactors
    2:04:43 to
    2:04:43 the
    2:04:43 Iranians
    2:04:43 a
    2:04:44 great
    2:04:45 nuclear
    2:04:45 industry
    2:04:45 in this
    2:04:46 country
    2:04:46 let’s
    2:04:46 do
    2:04:46 that
    2:04:46 but
    2:04:47 if
    2:04:47 they
    2:04:47 can’t
    2:04:47 the
    2:04:47 South
    2:04:48 Koreans
    2:04:48 can
    2:04:49 the
    2:04:49 Russians
    2:04:49 can
    2:04:50 the
    2:04:50 Chinese
    2:04:50 can
    2:04:50 I
    2:04:51 wouldn’t
    2:04:51 want
    2:04:51 to
    2:04:51 have
    2:04:52 significant
    2:04:52 Russian
    2:04:52 and
    2:04:52 Chinese
    2:04:53 influence
    2:04:53 in
    2:04:53 Iran
    2:04:54 so
    2:04:54 better
    2:04:54 that
    2:04:54 it
    2:04:55 be
    2:04:55 a
    2:04:55 Western
    2:04:55 country
    2:04:56 that
    2:04:56 does
    2:04:56 it
    2:04:57 nevertheless
    2:04:58 provide
    2:04:58 those
    2:04:58 reactors
    2:04:59 they’re
    2:05:00 proliferation
    2:05:00 proof
    2:05:01 there’s
    2:05:01 no
    2:05:02 enrichment
    2:05:02 and
    2:05:02 no
    2:05:03 reprocessing
    2:05:03 you
    2:05:03 buy
    2:05:04 your
    2:05:04 fuel
    2:05:04 rods
    2:05:04 from
    2:05:05 abroad
    2:05:05 you
    2:05:05 put
    2:05:05 them
    2:05:05 in
    2:05:05 the
    2:05:06 reactors
    2:05:06 you
    2:05:06 power
    2:05:06 the
    2:05:07 Iranian
    2:05:07 electrical
    2:05:08 grid
    2:05:08 which
    2:05:08 is
    2:05:08 in
    2:05:09 terrible
    2:05:09 shape
    2:05:09 because
    2:05:10 Ayatollah
    2:05:11 has spent
    2:05:11 a half
    2:05:12 a trillion
    2:05:12 dollars
    2:05:12 trying to
    2:05:13 build
    2:05:13 nuclear
    2:05:14 weapons
    2:05:14 and not
    2:05:14 trying to
    2:05:15 provide
    2:05:15 electricity
    2:05:15 for his
    2:05:16 people
    2:05:16 let’s
    2:05:17 help
    2:05:17 him
    2:05:17 let’s
    2:05:17 help
    2:05:17 his
    2:05:18 people
    2:05:18 get
    2:05:19 electricity
    2:05:19 but
    2:05:20 the
    2:05:20 key
    2:05:20 difference
    2:05:20 in
    2:05:21 our
    2:05:21 argument
    2:05:21 and
    2:05:21 it’s
    2:05:21 a
    2:05:22 fundamental
    2:05:22 difference
    2:05:22 Scott’s
    2:05:23 right
    2:05:23 like
    2:05:24 the
    2:05:24 key
    2:05:24 difference
    2:05:24 is
    2:05:25 I
    2:05:25 do
    2:05:26 not
    2:05:26 want
    2:05:26 to
    2:05:26 give
    2:05:26 this
    2:05:27 regime
    2:05:28 enrichment
    2:05:28 or
    2:05:29 reprocessing
    2:05:29 because
    2:05:29 they
    2:05:29 have
    2:05:30 shown
    2:05:30 over
    2:05:31 time
    2:05:31 for
    2:05:31 whatever
    2:05:32 reason
    2:05:32 whether
    2:05:32 you
    2:05:32 believe
    2:05:32 it’s
    2:05:33 they
    2:05:33 intended
    2:05:34 to
    2:05:34 or
    2:05:34 we
    2:05:34 were
    2:05:35 lying
    2:05:35 about
    2:05:35 it
    2:05:35 or
    2:05:36 we
    2:05:36 broke
    2:05:36 them
    2:05:36 it
    2:05:37 doesn’t
    2:05:37 matter
    2:05:37 what
    2:05:38 they
    2:05:38 have
    2:05:38 shown
    2:05:38 over
    2:05:38 the
    2:05:39 past
    2:05:39 number
    2:05:39 of
    2:05:39 years
    2:05:40 is
    2:05:40 they
    2:05:40 gone
    2:05:41 up
    2:05:41 from
    2:05:42 3.67%
    2:05:43 enriched
    2:05:43 uranium
    2:05:44 for
    2:05:44 civilian
    2:05:44 purpose
    2:05:45 all
    2:05:45 the way
    2:05:45 up
    2:05:45 to
    2:05:46 60%
    2:05:46 which
    2:05:47 is
    2:05:47 99%
    2:05:48 of
    2:05:48 what
    2:05:48 you
    2:05:48 need
    2:05:48 for
    2:05:48 weapons
    2:05:49 grade
    2:05:49 since
    2:05:49 we’ve
    2:05:50 seen
    2:05:50 them
    2:05:50 do
    2:05:50 it
    2:05:51 before
    2:05:51 we
    2:05:51 don’t
    2:05:51 want
    2:05:51 to
    2:05:51 see
    2:05:52 them
    2:05:52 do
    2:05:52 it
    2:05:53 again
    2:05:53 so
    2:05:54 no
    2:05:54 enrichment
    2:05:55 full
    2:05:55 dismantlement
    2:05:56 full
    2:05:56 deal
    2:05:57 and
    2:05:57 then
    2:05:57 there’s
    2:05:58 a
    2:05:58 peaceful
    2:05:59 resolution
    2:05:59 to
    2:06:00 what
    2:06:00 I
    2:06:00 worry
    2:06:01 about
    2:06:01 is
    2:06:02 positions
    2:06:02 that
    2:06:02 are
    2:06:02 taken
    2:06:03 that
    2:06:03 undermine
    2:06:03 President
    2:06:04 Trump’s
    2:06:05 negotiating
    2:06:06 leverage
    2:06:06 in
    2:06:06 Oman
    2:06:07 Can I
    2:06:08 ask you
    2:06:08 you were
    2:06:08 saying
    2:06:09 you supported
    2:06:09 the JCP
    2:06:10 you were
    2:06:11 opposed
    2:06:14 to
    2:06:14 withdrawing
    2:06:14 from it
    2:06:15 don’t you
    2:06:15 think
    2:06:15 that
    2:06:15 Trump
    2:06:16 could
    2:06:16 have
    2:06:16 gone
    2:06:16 over
    2:06:16 there
    2:06:17 and
    2:06:17 negotiate
    2:06:17 to
    2:06:18 make
    2:06:18 it
    2:06:18 better
    2:06:18 and
    2:06:19 would
    2:06:19 you
    2:06:19 agree
    2:06:19 that
    2:06:19 it
    2:06:19 was
    2:06:20 a
    2:06:20 huge
    2:06:20 mistake
    2:06:21 to
    2:06:21 withdraw
    2:06:22 that
    2:06:22 because
    2:06:22 they
    2:06:23 were
    2:06:23 as
    2:06:23 we
    2:06:23 agreed
    2:06:24 shipping
    2:06:24 out
    2:06:24 all
    2:06:25 of
    2:06:25 their
    2:06:25 enriched
    2:06:26 uranium
    2:06:26 to
    2:06:26 only
    2:06:27 be
    2:06:27 brought
    2:06:27 back
    2:06:27 in
    2:06:27 a
    2:06:27 form
    2:06:28 that
    2:06:28 they
    2:06:28 could
    2:06:28 not
    2:06:29 use
    2:06:29 to
    2:06:29 make
    2:06:29 nukes
    2:06:30 the
    2:06:37 to
    2:06:37 have
    2:06:37 enough
    2:06:38 weapons
    2:06:38 grade
    2:06:38 uranium
    2:06:38 for
    2:06:38 a
    2:06:39 single
    2:06:39 gun
    2:06:39 type
    2:06:39 nuke
    2:06:40 under
    2:06:40 the
    2:06:41 JCPOA
    2:06:41 right
    2:06:42 so
    2:06:43 can I
    2:06:43 let me
    2:06:43 ask you
    2:06:43 a question
    2:06:44 yeah
    2:06:44 because
    2:06:44 you’re
    2:06:44 right
    2:06:44 I mean
    2:06:45 I’m
    2:06:45 glad
    2:06:45 you’ve
    2:06:45 pointed
    2:06:46 out
    2:06:46 because
    2:06:46 I
    2:06:47 I
    2:06:47 tried
    2:06:48 to
    2:06:48 take
    2:06:48 a
    2:06:48 nuanced
    2:06:49 position
    2:06:49 during
    2:06:49 the
    2:06:50 JCPOA
    2:06:50 debate
    2:06:51 and
    2:06:51 I
    2:06:51 got
    2:06:51 hammered
    2:06:51 by
    2:06:51 the
    2:06:52 left
    2:06:52 and
    2:06:52 I
    2:06:52 got
    2:06:52 hammered
    2:06:52 by
    2:06:52 the
    2:06:53 right
    2:06:53 okay
    2:06:54 the
    2:06:55 left
    2:06:55 hammered
    2:06:55 me
    2:06:56 because
    2:06:56 I
    2:06:56 criticized
    2:06:56 the
    2:06:57 JCPOA
    2:06:57 because
    2:06:57 it’s
    2:06:58 fundamental
    2:06:58 flaw
    2:06:59 was
    2:06:59 twofold
    2:07:00 one
    2:07:00 it
    2:07:00 gave
    2:07:01 Iran
    2:07:01 enrichment
    2:07:02 capability
    2:07:02 that
    2:07:02 would
    2:07:02 expand
    2:07:03 over
    2:07:03 time
    2:07:04 as
    2:07:04 the
    2:07:04 restrictions
    2:07:05 sunsetted
    2:07:06 right
    2:07:06 and
    2:07:07 number
    2:07:07 two
    2:07:07 the
    2:07:08 sunsets
    2:07:09 were
    2:07:09 going
    2:07:09 to
    2:07:09 kick
    2:07:09 in
    2:07:09 and
    2:07:10 Iran
    2:07:10 would
    2:07:10 emerge
    2:07:10 with
    2:07:11 this
    2:07:11 industrial
    2:07:11 size
    2:07:12 program
    2:07:12 which
    2:07:13 we
    2:07:13 would
    2:07:13 not
    2:07:13 be
    2:07:13 able
    2:07:13 to
    2:07:14 stop
    2:07:15 now
    2:07:15 the
    2:07:15 nuance
    2:07:16 position
    2:07:16 which
    2:07:16 I
    2:07:16 got
    2:07:17 hammered
    2:07:17 on
    2:07:17 by
    2:07:17 the
    2:07:18 right
    2:07:18 was
    2:07:18 I
    2:07:19 said
    2:07:19 go
    2:07:20 negotiate
    2:07:20 with
    2:07:20 the
    2:07:20 Europeans
    2:07:31 we
    2:07:33 want
    2:07:34 to
    2:07:34 negotiate
    2:07:35 a
    2:07:35 deal
    2:07:35 now
    2:07:35 does
    2:07:35 that
    2:07:35 mean
    2:07:36 we
    2:07:36 have
    2:07:36 to
    2:07:36 give
    2:07:36 you
    2:07:36 more
    2:07:37 sanctions
    2:07:37 relief
    2:07:37 yeah
    2:07:37 probably
    2:07:37 the
    2:07:38 Iranians
    2:07:38 are
    2:07:38 not
    2:07:38 going
    2:07:38 to
    2:07:39 agree
    2:07:39 without
    2:07:39 sanctions
    2:07:40 relief
    2:07:41 what
    2:07:41 happened
    2:07:41 is
    2:07:42 the
    2:07:42 Trump
    2:07:42 administration
    2:07:43 tried
    2:07:43 to
    2:07:44 negotiate
    2:07:44 with
    2:07:44 the
    2:07:44 Europeans
    2:07:45 the
    2:07:45 Europeans
    2:07:46 were
    2:07:46 opposed
    2:07:47 because
    2:07:47 they
    2:07:47 didn’t
    2:07:47 want
    2:07:47 to
    2:07:48 revisit
    2:07:48 the
    2:07:48 agreement
    2:07:49 we
    2:07:49 knew
    2:07:49 from
    2:07:50 we
    2:07:50 knew
    2:07:50 the
    2:07:50 Iranians
    2:07:51 were
    2:07:51 completely
    2:07:51 opposed
    2:07:52 and
    2:07:52 there
    2:07:52 was
    2:07:52 no
    2:07:52 way
    2:07:52 they
    2:07:52 were
    2:07:52 going
    2:08:00 to
    2:08:00 that
    2:08:01 point
    2:08:01 that
    2:08:02 President
    2:08:02 Trump
    2:08:02 decided
    2:08:02 to
    2:08:03 withdraw
    2:08:03 from
    2:08:03 the
    2:08:04 agreement
    2:08:04 but
    2:08:05 what
    2:08:05 I’m
    2:08:05 asking
    2:08:05 you
    2:08:05 is
    2:08:06 if
    2:08:06 say
    2:08:07 you
    2:08:07 were
    2:08:07 the
    2:08:07 national
    2:08:08 security
    2:08:08 advisor
    2:08:09 under
    2:08:10 the
    2:08:11 JCPOA
    2:08:11 where
    2:08:11 they’re
    2:08:12 still
    2:08:12 shipping
    2:08:12 all
    2:08:12 their
    2:08:13 enriched
    2:08:13 uranium
    2:08:13 out
    2:08:13 of
    2:08:14 the
    2:08:14 country
    2:08:14 and
    2:08:14 all
    2:08:14 that
    2:08:15 which
    2:08:15 you
    2:08:15 would
    2:08:16 be
    2:08:16 advising
    2:08:16 him
    2:08:17 to
    2:08:17 not
    2:08:17 leave
    2:08:18 in
    2:08:18 the
    2:08:19 negotiations
    2:08:19 to
    2:08:20 improve
    2:08:20 the
    2:08:20 deal
    2:08:21 would
    2:08:21 you
    2:08:21 have
    2:08:21 been
    2:08:22 willing
    2:08:22 to
    2:08:22 accept
    2:08:23 some
    2:08:23 level
    2:08:23 of
    2:08:24 enrichment
    2:08:24 then
    2:08:25 as
    2:08:25 long
    2:08:25 as
    2:08:25 we’re
    2:08:26 still
    2:08:26 we
    2:08:26 have
    2:08:26 the
    2:08:27 restriction
    2:08:27 part
    2:08:28 where
    2:08:28 they’re
    2:08:28 shipping
    2:08:28 it
    2:08:28 all
    2:08:29 out
    2:08:29 of
    2:08:29 the
    2:08:29 country
    2:08:29 or
    2:08:30 to
    2:08:30 you
    2:08:30 enrichment
    2:08:31 at
    2:08:31 all
    2:08:31 is
    2:08:32 always
    2:08:32 a
    2:08:32 red
    2:08:33 line
    2:08:33 essentially
    2:08:34 equivalent
    2:08:34 to
    2:08:34 them
    2:08:35 being
    2:08:36 99%
    2:08:36 of the
    2:08:36 way
    2:08:37 to
    2:08:37 a
    2:08:37 nuclear
    2:08:37 weapon
    2:08:38 look
    2:08:39 enrichment
    2:08:39 capability
    2:08:40 is
    2:08:40 a
    2:08:40 red
    2:08:40 line
    2:08:40 it
    2:08:41 has
    2:08:41 to
    2:08:41 be
    2:08:41 a
    2:08:41 red
    2:08:42 line
    2:08:42 and
    2:08:42 even
    2:08:43 though
    2:08:43 you
    2:08:43 know
    2:08:43 it’s
    2:08:43 protected
    2:08:44 by
    2:08:44 the
    2:08:44 NPT
    2:08:44 the
    2:08:45 right
    2:08:45 to
    2:08:45 peace
    2:08:45 for
    2:08:45 nuclear
    2:08:46 technology
    2:08:46 they call
    2:08:46 it a
    2:08:47 loophole
    2:08:47 but
    2:08:48 they have
    2:08:48 the right
    2:08:49 to enrich
    2:08:49 uranium
    2:08:49 as
    2:08:49 there’s
    2:08:50 different
    2:08:50 interpretations
    2:08:51 of everything
    2:08:52 including
    2:08:52 agreements
    2:08:54 there is
    2:08:54 a
    2:08:56 raging
    2:08:57 debate
    2:08:57 about
    2:08:58 whether
    2:08:58 the
    2:08:58 NPT
    2:08:59 actually
    2:08:59 gives you
    2:09:00 a right
    2:09:00 to
    2:09:00 enrich
    2:09:00 in fact
    2:09:00 the
    2:09:01 Obama
    2:09:01 administration
    2:09:02 even
    2:09:02 with
    2:09:02 the
    2:09:03 JCPOA
    2:09:03 was not
    2:09:04 willing
    2:09:04 to
    2:09:04 recognize
    2:09:05 Iran’s
    2:09:06 right
    2:09:06 to
    2:09:06 enrich
    2:09:07 but
    2:09:07 they
    2:09:07 were
    2:09:07 willing
    2:09:08 to
    2:09:08 recognize
    2:09:08 its
    2:09:09 de facto
    2:09:10 reality
    2:09:10 that they
    2:09:10 were
    2:09:11 enriching
    2:09:14 Iran
    2:09:14 is a
    2:09:15 member
    2:09:15 of
    2:09:15 it
    2:09:16 and
    2:09:16 it
    2:09:16 is
    2:09:16 supposed
    2:09:16 to
    2:09:17 promote
    2:09:18 peaceful
    2:09:19 civilian
    2:09:19 nuclear
    2:09:20 energy
    2:09:21 and
    2:09:21 it’s
    2:09:21 supposed
    2:09:21 to
    2:09:21 prevent
    2:09:22 countries
    2:09:22 from
    2:09:22 developing
    2:09:23 nuclear
    2:09:23 weapons
    2:09:23 I think
    2:09:24 that’s
    2:09:24 a
    2:09:25 basic
    2:09:25 summary
    2:09:25 of it
    2:09:25 and
    2:09:26 it
    2:09:26 mandates
    2:09:27 that
    2:09:27 non-nuclear
    2:09:27 weapon
    2:09:28 states
    2:09:29 have
    2:09:29 a
    2:09:29 safeguards
    2:09:30 agreement
    2:09:30 with
    2:09:30 the
    2:09:31 IAEA
    2:09:33 and
    2:09:33 full of
    2:09:33 additional
    2:09:34 protocols
    2:09:34 and
    2:09:34 whatever
    2:09:35 they
    2:09:35 have
    2:09:35 the
    2:09:35 right
    2:09:36 to
    2:09:36 expect
    2:09:36 well
    2:09:36 no
    2:09:37 they
    2:09:37 had
    2:09:37 an
    2:09:37 additional
    2:09:38 protocol
    2:09:38 that
    2:09:38 they
    2:09:38 were
    2:09:38 abiding
    2:09:39 not
    2:09:39 even
    2:09:39 enriching
    2:09:39 at
    2:09:40 all
    2:09:40 while
    2:09:40 they
    2:09:40 were
    2:09:41 negotiating
    2:09:41 with
    2:09:41 the
    2:09:41 E3
    2:09:42 and
    2:09:42 then
    2:09:42 what
    2:09:42 the
    2:09:43 JCPOA
    2:09:43 really
    2:09:44 did
    2:09:44 was
    2:09:44 add
    2:09:44 a
    2:09:45 bunch
    2:09:45 of
    2:09:45 additional
    2:09:46 protocols
    2:09:46 and
    2:09:47 subsidiary
    2:09:47 arrangements
    2:09:48 and
    2:09:48 agreements
    2:09:48 to
    2:09:49 ratify
    2:09:49 the
    2:09:49 additional
    2:09:49 protocol
    2:09:49 I
    2:10:09 while
    2:10:09 they
    2:10:09 were
    2:10:10 negotiating
    2:10:10 with
    2:10:10 the
    2:10:10 E3
    2:10:11 in
    2:10:11 the
    2:10:12 W.
    2:10:12 Bush
    2:10:12 years
    2:10:12 before
    2:10:13 they
    2:10:13 even
    2:10:13 started
    2:10:14 spinning
    2:10:14 centrifuges
    2:10:15 at
    2:10:15 the
    2:10:15 You
    2:10:16 asked
    2:10:16 me
    2:10:16 what
    2:10:16 I
    2:10:16 would
    2:10:17 advise
    2:10:17 the
    2:10:17 national
    2:10:17 security
    2:10:18 advisor
    2:10:18 of the
    2:10:18 United
    2:10:18 States
    2:10:18 or
    2:10:19 if
    2:10:19 I
    2:10:19 was
    2:10:19 the
    2:10:19 national
    2:10:19 security
    2:10:20 advisor
    2:10:20 of the
    2:10:20 United
    2:10:20 States
    2:10:20 which
    2:10:21 I
    2:10:21 guess
    2:10:21 I
    2:10:21 can’t
    2:10:21 be
    2:10:21 because
    2:10:22 I’m
    2:10:22 a
    2:10:22 foreigner
    2:10:22 but
    2:10:23 the
    2:10:23 fact
    2:10:23 of the
    2:10:23 matter
    2:10:24 is
    2:10:24 I
    2:10:24 think
    2:10:24 you
    2:10:24 could
    2:10:24 still
    2:10:25 be
    2:10:25 national
    2:10:25 security
    2:10:26 advisor
    2:10:27 I
    2:10:28 think
    2:10:28 he
    2:10:28 was
    2:10:28 taking
    2:10:28 a
    2:10:28 shot
    2:10:29 back
    2:10:29 at
    2:10:29 the
    2:10:29 fact
    2:10:29 that
    2:10:29 you
    2:10:30 took
    2:10:30 a
    2:10:30 shot
    2:10:31 you
    2:10:31 know
    2:10:31 what
    2:10:31 Lex
    2:10:31 I
    2:10:32 think
    2:10:32 that
    2:10:32 you
    2:10:32 probably
    2:10:32 would
    2:10:33 recognize
    2:10:33 that
    2:10:33 there
    2:10:33 are
    2:10:34 many
    2:10:34 people
    2:10:34 who
    2:10:34 lobby
    2:10:35 for
    2:10:35 Israel’s
    2:10:36 interests
    2:10:36 in
    2:10:36 the
    2:10:36 United
    2:10:36 States
    2:10:37 who
    2:10:37 clearly
    2:10:37 don’t
    2:10:38 care
    2:10:38 that
    2:10:38 much
    2:10:39 about
    2:10:39 what
    2:10:40 happens
    2:10:40 to
    2:10:40 the
    2:10:40 United
    2:10:41 States
    2:10:41 of
    2:10:41 America
    2:10:42 in
    2:10:43 it
    2:10:43 as
    2:10:43 a
    2:10:44 consequence
    2:10:45 because
    2:10:45 they
    2:10:46 care
    2:10:46 about
    2:10:46 Israel
    2:10:46 which
    2:10:46 is
    2:10:47 a
    2:10:47 different
    2:10:48 country
    2:10:48 than
    2:10:48 America
    2:10:49 right
    2:10:49 it’s
    2:10:49 not
    2:10:50 part
    2:10:50 of
    2:10:50 I
    2:10:50 think
    2:10:51 an
    2:10:51 American
    2:10:52 citizen
    2:10:53 cares
    2:10:53 primarily
    2:10:54 about
    2:10:54 America
    2:10:55 that is
    2:10:55 fundamental
    2:10:56 belief
    2:10:56 for me
    2:10:57 to make
    2:10:57 an
    2:10:57 accusation
    2:10:58 that they
    2:10:58 don’t
    2:10:58 requires
    2:10:59 a
    2:10:59 very
    2:11:00 large
    2:11:00 amount
    2:11:00 of
    2:11:01 proof
    2:11:01 for
    2:11:02 each
    2:11:02 individual
    2:11:03 I
    2:11:03 don’t
    2:11:03 care
    2:11:03 that
    2:11:04 American
    2:11:04 and
    2:11:05 Israel’s
    2:11:05 interests
    2:11:06 are
    2:11:06 the
    2:11:06 same
    2:11:07 requires
    2:11:07 a
    2:11:08 tremendous
    2:11:08 amount
    2:11:08 of
    2:11:09 cognitive
    2:11:10 dissonance
    2:11:10 by
    2:11:11 those
    2:11:11 who
    2:11:11 support
    2:11:12 Israel’s
    2:11:12 interests
    2:11:13 they say
    2:11:14 they’re not
    2:11:14 the same
    2:11:15 sponsor of
    2:11:15 terror
    2:11:15 as
    2:11:16 though
    2:11:16 Iran
    2:11:17 has
    2:11:17 anything
    2:11:18 to do
    2:11:18 with
    2:11:19 anti-American
    2:11:20 terrorists
    2:11:20 I
    2:11:20 don’t
    2:11:20 know
    2:11:21 who
    2:11:21 is
    2:11:21 the
    2:11:21 they
    2:11:22 that
    2:11:22 we’re
    2:11:22 talking
    2:11:22 about
    2:11:23 but I
    2:11:23 believe
    2:11:24 American
    2:11:25 citizens
    2:11:26 care about
    2:11:27 America
    2:11:27 first
    2:11:29 they may
    2:11:29 discuss
    2:11:29 other
    2:11:30 nations
    2:11:30 and the
    2:11:31 interests
    2:11:31 in the
    2:11:32 Middle East
    2:11:32 or in
    2:11:33 Europe
    2:11:35 and those
    2:11:35 interests
    2:11:36 might align
    2:11:36 with their
    2:11:36 own
    2:11:37 worldview
    2:11:37 whatever
    2:11:38 but when
    2:11:39 it comes
    2:11:39 at the
    2:11:39 end of
    2:11:40 the
    2:11:40 day
    2:11:40 if
    2:11:41 everybody
    2:11:41 starts
    2:11:41 a war
    2:11:41 with
    2:11:42 everybody
    2:11:42 else
    2:11:43 they’re
    2:11:43 America
    2:11:43 first
    2:11:44 I’m
    2:11:45 America
    2:11:45 first
    2:11:46 if there’s
    2:11:46 a war
    2:11:46 that breaks
    2:11:47 out
    2:11:47 and we
    2:11:48 have to
    2:11:48 pick up
    2:11:48 guns
    2:11:48 I’m
    2:11:49 fighting
    2:11:49 for
    2:11:49 America
    2:11:50 I’ll
    2:11:50 take
    2:11:50 them
    2:11:50 on a
    2:11:50 case
    2:11:51 by
    2:11:51 case
    2:11:51 basis
    2:11:52 I know
    2:11:53 immigrants
    2:11:54 who are
    2:11:54 absolutely
    2:11:55 super
    2:11:56 patriots
    2:11:56 who know
    2:11:57 American
    2:11:57 history
    2:11:58 and love
    2:11:58 and care
    2:11:58 about
    2:11:58 America
    2:11:59 more than
    2:11:59 their
    2:11:59 next door
    2:12:00 neighbors
    2:12:01 were from
    2:12:01 here
    2:12:01 but that
    2:12:02 ain’t
    2:12:02 universal
    2:12:03 okay
    2:12:04 sure
    2:12:04 let’s
    2:12:05 talk about
    2:12:05 case
    2:12:05 by case
    2:12:05 then
    2:12:06 that’s
    2:12:06 fine
    2:12:06 I think
    2:12:07 he’s
    2:12:08 clearly
    2:12:08 accusing
    2:12:09 me
    2:12:09 worse
    2:12:09 war
    2:12:10 with
    2:12:10 Iran
    2:12:10 he
    2:12:10 was
    2:12:11 entertaining
    2:12:12 the possibility
    2:12:12 of putting
    2:12:12 ground
    2:12:13 troops
    2:12:13 in there
    2:12:14 don’t
    2:12:14 take
    2:12:14 personal
    2:12:15 shots
    2:12:16 either
    2:12:16 of you
    2:12:16 you’ve
    2:12:17 taken
    2:12:17 personal
    2:12:17 shots
    2:12:18 let’s
    2:12:18 not
    2:12:18 do
    2:12:18 it
    2:12:19 you guys
    2:12:19 are
    2:12:19 just
    2:12:19 having
    2:12:20 fun
    2:12:22 let me
    2:12:22 respond
    2:12:22 he said
    2:12:23 there’s
    2:12:23 a threat
    2:12:25 from
    2:12:26 Iranian
    2:12:26 missiles
    2:12:26 to
    2:12:27 America’s
    2:12:27 bases
    2:12:28 in the
    2:12:28 Middle
    2:12:28 East
    2:12:29 yeah
    2:12:29 because
    2:12:29 of
    2:12:29 Israel
    2:12:30 and
    2:12:30 because
    2:12:30 of
    2:12:30 this
    2:12:31 war
    2:12:32 the first
    2:12:32 time
    2:12:32 Iran
    2:12:33 ever
    2:12:33 fired
    2:12:33 missiles
    2:12:34 at an
    2:12:34 American
    2:12:34 base
    2:12:34 over there
    2:12:35 was
    2:12:35 in
    2:12:36 response
    2:12:37 to
    2:12:37 Trump
    2:12:38 bombing
    2:12:38 them
    2:12:38 it’s
    2:12:38 never
    2:12:39 Iran’s
    2:12:39 fault
    2:12:39 is that
    2:12:40 what
    2:12:40 everybody
    2:12:40 thinks
    2:12:41 it was
    2:12:42 Iran
    2:12:42 who
    2:12:42 started
    2:12:43 this
    2:12:43 let’s
    2:12:43 bring
    2:12:43 it
    2:12:44 back
    2:12:44 Scott
    2:12:45 Scott
    2:12:46 it’s
    2:12:46 remarkable
    2:12:47 to me
    2:12:47 I want
    2:12:48 to reiterate
    2:12:48 this
    2:12:49 and then
    2:12:49 Iran
    2:12:50 shot
    2:12:50 missiles
    2:12:51 at
    2:12:51 Qatar
    2:12:52 and
    2:12:52 Iraq
    2:12:53 Scott
    2:12:53 you’re
    2:12:53 a
    2:12:53 patriotic
    2:12:54 American
    2:12:55 God
    2:12:55 bless
    2:12:55 you
    2:12:56 God
    2:12:56 bless
    2:12:56 the
    2:12:56 United
    2:12:57 States
    2:12:57 thank
    2:12:58 you
    2:12:58 for
    2:12:58 allowing
    2:12:58 me
    2:12:58 to
    2:12:58 come
    2:12:59 to
    2:12:59 this
    2:12:59 country
    2:12:59 and
    2:13:00 become
    2:13:00 an
    2:13:00 American
    2:13:00 it’s
    2:13:01 a
    2:13:01 great
    2:13:01 country
    2:13:02 and
    2:13:02 as
    2:13:02 a
    2:13:03 patriotic
    2:13:03 American
    2:13:04 I
    2:13:05 assume
    2:13:06 that
    2:13:06 the
    2:13:07 United
    2:13:07 States
    2:13:07 government
    2:13:08 and
    2:13:08 the
    2:13:08 United
    2:13:08 States
    2:13:09 intelligence
    2:13:09 community
    2:13:09 and
    2:13:09 the
    2:13:10 United
    2:13:10 States
    2:13:10 military
    2:13:12 has
    2:13:12 America’s
    2:13:13 best
    2:13:13 interest
    2:13:13 at
    2:13:14 heart
    2:13:14 however
    2:13:15 we
    2:13:15 have
    2:13:15 learned
    2:13:16 from
    2:13:16 the
    2:13:16 history
    2:13:16 and
    2:13:17 Scott
    2:13:17 done
    2:13:17 a
    2:13:17 very
    2:13:17 good
    2:13:18 job
    2:13:18 of
    2:13:18 detailing
    2:13:19 this
    2:13:19 during
    2:13:19 the
    2:13:19 Iraq
    2:13:20 war
    2:13:20 that
    2:13:21 the
    2:13:21 United
    2:13:21 States
    2:13:22 gets
    2:13:22 it
    2:13:22 wrong
    2:13:23 I
    2:13:24 don’t
    2:13:24 think
    2:13:24 the
    2:13:24 United
    2:13:24 States
    2:13:25 lied
    2:13:25 us
    2:13:25 into
    2:13:25 war
    2:13:26 but
    2:13:26 the
    2:13:26 United
    2:13:26 States
    2:13:27 got
    2:13:27 it
    2:13:27 wrong
    2:13:27 so
    2:13:27 I
    2:13:27 think
    2:13:28 Scott’s
    2:13:28 right
    2:13:28 we
    2:13:29 must
    2:13:29 make
    2:13:29 sure
    2:13:29 that
    2:13:29 we
    2:13:30 learn
    2:13:30 the
    2:13:30 lessons
    2:13:30 of
    2:13:31 Iraq
    2:13:31 but
    2:13:32 not
    2:13:32 over
    2:13:32 learn
    2:13:32 the
    2:13:32 lessons
    2:13:33 of
    2:13:33 Iraq
    2:13:33 I
    2:13:33 would
    2:13:33 also
    2:13:34 say
    2:13:34 this
    2:13:34 there
    2:13:35 are
    2:13:35 many
    2:13:35 lobby
    2:13:36 organizations
    2:13:36 in
    2:13:36 the
    2:13:36 United
    2:13:37 States
    2:13:37 there
    2:13:37 is
    2:13:37 the
    2:13:37 China
    2:13:38 lobby
    2:13:38 there
    2:13:38 is
    2:13:38 the
    2:13:39 oil
    2:13:39 lobby
    2:13:40 there
    2:13:40 is
    2:13:40 the
    2:13:41 pharmaceutical
    2:13:41 lobby
    2:13:42 there
    2:13:42 is
    2:13:42 the
    2:13:42 Qatar
    2:13:43 lobby
    2:13:43 I
    2:13:43 live
    2:13:43 in
    2:13:44 Washington
    2:13:44 I
    2:13:44 see
    2:13:44 all
    2:13:45 these
    2:13:45 lobby
    2:13:46 organizations
    2:13:46 okay
    2:13:47 fact of
    2:13:47 the
    2:13:47 matter
    2:13:48 is
    2:13:48 the
    2:13:49 pro
    2:13:49 Israel
    2:13:49 lobby
    2:13:50 which
    2:13:50 actually
    2:13:51 lobbies
    2:13:51 in
    2:13:51 support
    2:13:51 of
    2:13:52 the
    2:13:52 U.S.-Israel
    2:13:53 relationship
    2:13:53 is
    2:13:54 comprised
    2:13:54 of
    2:13:54 tens
    2:13:54 of
    2:13:55 millions
    2:13:56 of
    2:13:56 Christians
    2:13:56 and
    2:13:57 Jews
    2:13:57 and
    2:13:58 Hindus
    2:13:58 and
    2:13:58 yes
    2:13:59 Muslims
    2:14:00 who
    2:14:00 believe
    2:14:01 strongly
    2:14:01 in
    2:14:01 a
    2:14:01 strong
    2:14:02 U.S.-Israel
    2:14:02 relationships
    2:14:03 the
    2:14:03 reason
    2:14:03 that
    2:14:04 relationship
    2:14:04 has
    2:14:04 been
    2:14:04 so
    2:14:05 strong
    2:14:05 over
    2:14:05 so
    2:14:05 many
    2:14:06 years
    2:14:06 and
    2:14:06 that
    2:14:07 this
    2:14:07 quote
    2:14:07 lobby
    2:14:08 has
    2:14:08 been
    2:14:08 so
    2:14:08 successful
    2:14:09 is
    2:14:09 they’re
    2:14:10 pushing
    2:14:10 through
    2:14:10 an
    2:14:10 open
    2:14:11 door
    2:14:11 with
    2:14:11 policymakers
    2:14:12 not
    2:14:12 because
    2:14:13 some
    2:14:14 nefarious
    2:14:14 money
    2:14:15 influence
    2:14:15 but
    2:14:15 because
    2:14:16 at
    2:14:16 the
    2:14:16 end
    2:14:16 of
    2:14:16 the
    2:14:16 day
    2:14:16 the
    2:14:16 interests
    2:14:17 align
    2:14:17 we
    2:14:18 counter
    2:14:18 terrorism
    2:14:19 together
    2:14:19 we
    2:14:20 counter
    2:14:20 nuclear
    2:14:21 proliferation
    2:14:21 together
    2:14:22 and
    2:14:22 we
    2:14:22 believe
    2:14:22 that
    2:14:22 the
    2:14:23 U.S.-Israel
    2:14:23 relationship
    2:14:24 is
    2:14:24 a
    2:14:24 strong
    2:14:24 relationship
    2:14:25 and
    2:14:25 these
    2:14:26 accusations
    2:14:26 of
    2:14:27 dual
    2:14:27 loyalty
    2:14:27 and
    2:14:27 these
    2:14:28 accusations
    2:14:28 of
    2:14:29 Israel
    2:14:29 firsters
    2:14:29 that
    2:14:30 Scott’s
    2:14:30 thrown
    2:14:30 around
    2:14:31 I
    2:14:31 think
    2:14:32 distract us
    2:14:32 from the
    2:14:32 conversation
    2:14:33 which I
    2:14:33 think we
    2:14:33 should
    2:14:34 return
    2:14:34 to
    2:14:35 let’s
    2:14:35 talk
    2:14:35 about
    2:14:36 today
    2:14:36 we’ve
    2:14:36 talked
    2:14:36 about
    2:14:37 best
    2:14:37 case
    2:14:37 scenarios
    2:14:38 we’ve
    2:14:38 talked
    2:14:39 about
    2:14:40 worst
    2:14:40 case
    2:14:40 scenarios
    2:14:41 and
    2:14:41 we
    2:14:41 talked
    2:14:41 about
    2:14:42 really
    2:14:42 worst
    2:14:42 case
    2:14:43 scenarios
    2:14:43 so
    2:14:43 I
    2:14:43 think
    2:14:44 let’s
    2:14:44 talk
    2:14:44 about
    2:14:45 the
    2:14:45 way
    2:14:45 forward
    2:14:45 and
    2:14:46 I’d
    2:14:46 be
    2:14:46 interested
    2:14:46 in
    2:14:46 hearing
    2:14:47 from
    2:14:47 Scott
    2:14:47 where
    2:14:48 he
    2:14:48 thinks
    2:14:48 we’re
    2:14:48 going
    2:14:49 and
    2:14:49 I’m
    2:14:49 certainly
    2:14:50 I
    2:14:51 don’t
    2:14:51 crystal ball
    2:14:51 these
    2:14:52 things
    2:14:52 it’s
    2:14:52 always
    2:14:52 difficult
    2:14:52 to
    2:14:53 predict
    2:14:53 but
    2:14:54 I
    2:14:54 think
    2:14:55 President
    2:14:55 Trump
    2:14:55 has
    2:14:55 done
    2:14:57 a
    2:14:57 really
    2:14:57 good
    2:14:58 job
    2:14:58 he has
    2:14:58 led
    2:14:59 this
    2:15:00 right
    2:15:00 he
    2:15:00 has
    2:15:00 not
    2:15:01 been
    2:15:01 you
    2:15:01 know
    2:15:02 the
    2:15:03 at
    2:15:03 the
    2:15:03 beck and
    2:15:04 call
    2:15:04 of
    2:15:04 Bibi
    2:15:05 Netanyahu
    2:15:05 or
    2:15:06 Mohammed
    2:15:06 bin
    2:15:06 Salman
    2:15:06 of
    2:15:07 Saudi
    2:15:07 Arabia
    2:15:07 or
    2:15:08 anyone
    2:15:08 else
    2:15:08 he
    2:15:08 has
    2:15:09 led
    2:15:09 this
    2:15:09 effort
    2:15:09 he
    2:15:09 has
    2:15:10 made
    2:15:10 these
    2:15:10 decisions
    2:15:11 this
    2:15:11 is
    2:15:11 a
    2:15:11 man
    2:15:12 who
    2:15:12 throughout
    2:15:12 his
    2:15:13 entire
    2:15:13 career
    2:15:14 and
    2:15:14 not
    2:15:14 just
    2:15:14 his
    2:15:15 political
    2:15:15 career
    2:15:15 but
    2:15:15 many
    2:15:16 years
    2:15:17 before
    2:15:17 that
    2:15:18 believed
    2:15:18 that
    2:15:18 an
    2:15:18 Iranian
    2:15:19 nuclear
    2:15:19 weapon
    2:15:20 was
    2:15:20 a
    2:15:20 threat
    2:15:20 to
    2:15:20 the
    2:15:20 United
    2:15:21 States
    2:15:21 of
    2:15:21 America
    2:15:22 not
    2:15:22 just
    2:15:22 to
    2:15:23 our
    2:15:23 allies
    2:15:23 but
    2:15:23 the
    2:15:23 United
    2:15:24 States
    2:15:24 of
    2:15:24 America
    2:15:24 and
    2:15:24 he’s
    2:15:24 been
    2:15:25 very
    2:15:25 clear
    2:15:25 on
    2:15:26 record
    2:15:26 he
    2:15:26 led
    2:15:27 this
    2:15:27 campaign
    2:15:27 since
    2:15:28 he
    2:15:28 started
    2:15:28 in
    2:15:28 January
    2:15:29 he
    2:15:29 offered
    2:15:30 negotiations
    2:15:31 he
    2:15:31 got
    2:15:31 rebuffed
    2:15:31 by
    2:15:32 the
    2:15:32 Iranians
    2:15:32 in
    2:15:32 Oman
    2:15:33 he
    2:15:33 put
    2:15:34 pressure
    2:15:34 on
    2:15:34 the
    2:15:34 regime
    2:15:35 economically
    2:15:36 he
    2:15:36 continued
    2:15:36 to
    2:15:37 offer
    2:15:38 negotiations
    2:15:38 he
    2:15:39 offered
    2:15:39 a
    2:15:39 very
    2:15:39 good
    2:15:40 something
    2:15:40 that
    2:15:40 I
    2:15:40 thought
    2:15:40 was
    2:15:41 flawed
    2:15:42 I
    2:15:42 mean
    2:15:43 Lex
    2:15:43 I
    2:15:43 gotta
    2:15:43 tell
    2:15:43 you
    2:15:43 the
    2:15:44 offer
    2:15:44 in
    2:15:44 Oman
    2:15:45 that
    2:15:45 he
    2:15:45 gave
    2:15:46 to
    2:15:46 the
    2:15:46 Iranians
    2:15:46 I
    2:15:46 thought
    2:15:47 it
    2:15:47 was
    2:15:47 flawed
    2:15:47 because
    2:15:48 I
    2:15:48 think
    2:15:48 it
    2:15:48 allowed
    2:15:48 Iran
    2:15:49 to
    2:15:49 retain
    2:15:49 this
    2:15:49 key
    2:15:50 enrichment
    2:15:50 capability
    2:15:51 the
    2:15:51 Iranians
    2:15:52 turned
    2:15:52 it
    2:15:52 down
    2:15:53 and
    2:15:53 I
    2:15:53 think
    2:15:54 Khamenei
    2:15:54 to
    2:15:55 his
    2:15:55 everlasting
    2:15:56 regret
    2:16:02 they
    2:16:03 deserve
    2:16:03 and
    2:16:04 yet
    2:16:04 I
    2:16:04 rejected
    2:16:05 it
    2:16:05 why
    2:16:05 did
    2:16:05 I
    2:16:06 reject
    2:16:06 it
    2:16:06 because
    2:16:07 now
    2:16:07 look
    2:16:07 what’s
    2:16:07 happened
    2:16:07 in
    2:16:07 the
    2:16:08 past
    2:16:08 12
    2:16:08 days
    2:16:09 you
    2:16:09 know
    2:16:09 I’ve
    2:16:09 lost
    2:16:10 Fordow
    2:16:11 mostly
    2:16:11 we’ll
    2:16:11 see
    2:16:11 what
    2:16:11 happens
    2:16:11 on
    2:16:12 the
    2:16:12 BDA
    2:16:12 the
    2:16:13 battle
    2:16:13 damage
    2:16:13 assessment
    2:16:14 I’ve
    2:16:14 certainly
    2:16:14 lost
    2:16:15 Natanz
    2:16:16 I’ve
    2:16:17 lost
    2:16:17 my
    2:16:17 conversion
    2:16:18 facility
    2:16:18 at
    2:16:19 Isfahan
    2:16:19 which
    2:16:20 converts
    2:16:24 yellow
    2:16:25 cake
    2:16:25 into
    2:16:25 uranium
    2:16:26 hexafluoride
    2:16:27 to pump
    2:16:27 into
    2:16:27 centrifuge
    2:16:28 and
    2:16:28 the
    2:16:28 most
    2:16:28 important
    2:16:28 thing
    2:16:29 I
    2:16:29 lost
    2:16:29 at
    2:16:32 enriched
    2:16:33 uranium
    2:16:34 and
    2:16:34 turns
    2:16:34 it
    2:16:34 into
    2:16:35 uranium
    2:16:35 metal
    2:16:36 without
    2:16:36 uranium
    2:16:36 metal
    2:16:36 they
    2:16:36 don’t
    2:16:37 have
    2:16:37 any
    2:16:38 90%
    2:16:38 enriched
    2:16:38 uranium
    2:16:39 he
    2:16:39 just
    2:16:39 means
    2:16:40 hypothetically
    2:16:41 if they
    2:16:41 did
    2:16:41 have
    2:16:41 some
    2:16:42 you
    2:16:42 know
    2:16:43 the
    2:16:44 60%
    2:16:44 that’s
    2:16:45 99%
    2:16:45 of the
    2:16:45 way
    2:16:45 to
    2:16:46 90%
    2:16:46 enriched
    2:16:46 uranium
    2:16:47 by the
    2:16:47 way
    2:16:47 you
    2:16:47 can
    2:16:48 make
    2:16:48 a
    2:16:48 crude
    2:16:49 nuclear
    2:16:49 device
    2:16:49 with
    2:16:50 60%
    2:16:50 enriched
    2:16:50 uranium
    2:16:50 I
    2:16:51 just
    2:16:51 want
    2:16:51 to
    2:16:51 put
    2:16:52 that
    2:16:52 on
    2:16:52 the
    2:16:52 record
    2:16:53 but
    2:16:53 he
    2:16:53 lost
    2:16:54 that
    2:16:54 key
    2:16:54 conversion
    2:16:55 facility
    2:16:55 that
    2:16:55 turns
    2:16:56 90%
    2:16:56 enriched
    2:16:57 uranium
    2:16:57 or
    2:16:57 even
    2:16:58 60%
    2:16:58 enriched
    2:16:59 uranium
    2:16:59 into
    2:17:00 uranium
    2:17:00 metal
    2:17:01 you
    2:17:01 need
    2:17:01 uranium
    2:17:02 metal
    2:17:02 to
    2:17:03 fashion
    2:17:03 a
    2:17:03 crude
    2:17:04 nuclear
    2:17:04 device
    2:17:04 or
    2:17:04 a
    2:17:05 warhead
    2:17:05 that’s
    2:17:05 been
    2:17:06 destroyed
    2:17:07 and
    2:17:07 I
    2:17:07 just
    2:17:08 when I was
    2:17:08 coming in
    2:17:08 this
    2:17:08 morning
    2:17:09 I
    2:17:09 just
    2:17:09 checked
    2:17:09 I
    2:17:09 thought
    2:17:10 it was
    2:17:10 interesting
    2:17:11 been a
    2:17:11 whole lot
    2:17:11 of
    2:17:12 discussion
    2:17:12 about
    2:17:12 the
    2:17:12 fact
    2:17:13 that
    2:17:13 about
    2:17:14 12
    2:17:14 or
    2:17:15 16
    2:17:15 trucks
    2:17:15 showed
    2:17:15 up
    2:17:16 at
    2:17:16 Fordow
    2:17:17 in
    2:17:17 the
    2:17:17 days
    2:17:17 before
    2:17:18 the
    2:17:19 US
    2:17:19 strikes
    2:17:20 and
    2:17:20 moved
    2:17:21 something
    2:17:21 out
    2:17:21 for
    2:17:22 Fordow
    2:17:22 well
    2:17:23 according
    2:17:23 to
    2:17:23 reports
    2:17:24 just
    2:17:24 this
    2:17:24 morning
    2:17:24 we’ll
    2:17:25 see
    2:17:25 if
    2:17:25 they’re
    2:17:25 verified
    2:17:26 I
    2:17:26 don’t
    2:17:26 trust
    2:17:27 single
    2:17:27 sourcing
    2:17:28 I
    2:17:28 don’t
    2:17:28 trust
    2:17:28 what
    2:17:28 some
    2:17:29 reporter
    2:17:29 just
    2:17:29 says
    2:17:30 in
    2:17:30 their
    2:17:30 stories
    2:17:31 because
    2:17:31 reporters
    2:17:31 got it
    2:17:32 wrong
    2:17:32 over
    2:17:32 and
    2:17:32 over
    2:17:32 again
    2:17:33 especially
    2:17:33 all
    2:17:33 the
    2:17:33 ones
    2:17:33 who
    2:17:34 accused
    2:17:34 President
    2:17:34 Trump
    2:17:35 have
    2:17:35 been
    2:17:35 a
    2:17:35 Russian
    2:17:36 agent
    2:17:36 but
    2:17:36 we’ll
    2:17:36 see
    2:17:37 what
    2:17:37 happens
    2:17:37 we’ll
    2:17:37 see
    2:17:37 if
    2:17:37 it’s
    2:17:38 verified
    2:17:38 but
    2:17:39 according
    2:17:39 to
    2:17:39 the
    2:17:39 reports
    2:17:40 most
    2:17:41 of
    2:17:41 the
    2:17:41 material
    2:17:51 was
    2:17:52 listening
    2:17:52 to
    2:17:52 lots
    2:17:53 of
    2:17:53 voices
    2:17:54 and
    2:17:54 we
    2:17:54 can
    2:17:54 name
    2:17:54 the
    2:17:55 voices
    2:17:55 or
    2:17:55 we
    2:17:55 can
    2:17:55 just
    2:17:56 talk
    2:17:56 to
    2:17:56 them
    2:17:57 about
    2:17:57 a
    2:17:57 collective
    2:17:58 who
    2:17:59 they
    2:17:59 thought
    2:17:59 were
    2:18:00 telling
    2:18:00 Trump
    2:18:01 don’t
    2:18:01 do
    2:18:01 it
    2:18:02 and
    2:18:02 we’re
    2:18:03 telling
    2:18:03 Trump
    2:18:03 don’t
    2:18:03 do
    2:18:04 it
    2:18:04 and
    2:18:04 Trump
    2:18:04 decided
    2:18:05 on
    2:18:05 his
    2:18:05 own
    2:18:06 to
    2:18:06 do
    2:18:06 it
    2:18:06 so
    2:18:06 they
    2:18:06 kept
    2:18:07 the
    2:18:07 enriched
    2:18:07 material
    2:18:08 at
    2:18:08 Fordow
    2:18:08 and
    2:18:09 if
    2:18:09 that’s
    2:18:09 the
    2:18:09 case
    2:18:10 it
    2:18:10 may
    2:18:10 be
    2:18:10 that
    2:18:10 much
    2:18:11 of
    2:18:11 it
    2:18:11 was
    2:18:11 destroyed
    2:18:12 again
    2:18:12 caveat
    2:18:13 it’s
    2:18:13 just
    2:18:14 one
    2:18:14 or
    2:18:14 two
    2:18:15 stories
    2:18:15 right
    2:18:15 now
    2:18:16 one
    2:18:16 in
    2:18:17 NBC
    2:18:17 news
    2:18:18 and
    2:18:19 let’s
    2:18:19 see
    2:18:19 what
    2:18:19 happens
    2:18:19 over
    2:18:20 the
    2:18:20 coming
    2:18:20 days
    2:18:20 but
    2:18:20 if
    2:18:21 that’s
    2:18:21 the
    2:18:21 case
    2:18:22 that
    2:18:23 material
    2:18:23 may
    2:18:24 have
    2:18:24 been
    2:18:24 destroyed
    2:18:25 one
    2:18:25 other
    2:18:26 element
    2:18:26 that
    2:18:26 we
    2:18:26 haven’t
    2:18:26 even
    2:18:27 talked
    2:18:27 about
    2:18:27 at
    2:18:27 all
    2:18:27 today
    2:18:28 which
    2:18:28 I
    2:18:28 think
    2:18:28 your
    2:18:29 listeners
    2:18:29 should
    2:18:29 be
    2:18:29 aware
    2:18:30 of
    2:18:30 we
    2:18:31 talked
    2:18:31 a lot
    2:18:31 about
    2:18:32 nuclear
    2:18:33 weapons
    2:18:33 development
    2:18:34 warhead
    2:18:34 development
    2:18:35 what
    2:18:35 the
    2:18:35 Israelis
    2:18:35 did
    2:18:36 was
    2:18:36 they
    2:18:36 took
    2:18:36 out
    2:18:37 the
    2:18:37 top
    2:18:37 15
    2:18:38 nuclear
    2:18:39 weapons
    2:18:39 scientists
    2:18:40 who
    2:18:40 have
    2:18:41 been
    2:18:41 part
    2:18:41 of
    2:18:41 remember
    2:18:41 I
    2:18:42 talked
    2:18:42 about
    2:18:42 that
    2:18:42 original
    2:18:43 Ahmaud
    2:18:43 program
    2:18:44 and the
    2:18:45 development
    2:18:45 of those
    2:18:45 five
    2:18:46 atomic
    2:18:46 weapons
    2:18:47 well
    2:18:47 some
    2:18:47 of
    2:18:48 them
    2:18:48 who
    2:18:48 are
    2:18:48 old
    2:18:49 enough
    2:18:49 come
    2:18:49 from
    2:18:49 the
    2:18:50 Ahmaud
    2:18:50 program
    2:18:51 which
    2:18:51 is
    2:18:51 the
    2:18:51 early
    2:18:52 2000s
    2:18:53 some
    2:18:53 of
    2:18:53 them
    2:18:53 are
    2:18:53 new
    2:18:53 but
    2:18:54 they’ve
    2:18:54 been
    2:18:54 or
    2:18:54 not
    2:18:54 new
    2:18:54 but
    2:18:55 younger
    2:18:55 and
    2:18:55 they’ve
    2:18:55 been
    2:18:56 trained
    2:18:56 by
    2:18:57 the
    2:18:57 veterans
    2:18:58 the
    2:18:58 15
    2:18:58 top
    2:18:59 guys
    2:18:59 taken
    2:19:00 out
    2:19:00 that
    2:19:00 is
    2:19:01 akin
    2:19:01 to
    2:19:02 it’s
    2:19:03 January
    2:19:03 or
    2:19:03 February
    2:19:04 45
    2:19:05 and
    2:19:05 the
    2:19:05 entire
    2:19:07 central
    2:19:07 team
    2:19:07 of
    2:19:08 Oppenheimer
    2:19:08 gets
    2:19:09 eliminated
    2:19:10 three
    2:19:10 to
    2:19:10 four
    2:19:10 months
    2:19:11 between
    2:19:11 the
    2:19:11 Trinity
    2:19:12 test
    2:19:12 before
    2:19:12 the
    2:19:12 Trinity
    2:19:13 test
    2:19:13 where
    2:19:13 we
    2:19:14 explode
    2:19:14 our
    2:19:14 first
    2:19:15 nuclear
    2:19:15 weapon
    2:19:15 so
    2:19:16 I
    2:19:16 would
    2:19:16 say
    2:19:17 significant
    2:19:17 damage
    2:19:18 to
    2:19:18 Iran’s
    2:19:18 nuclear
    2:19:19 weapons
    2:19:19 program
    2:19:20 suggests
    2:19:20 that
    2:19:20 we
    2:19:21 potentially
    2:19:21 have
    2:19:22 rolled
    2:19:22 them
    2:19:22 back
    2:19:23 for
    2:19:23 years
    2:19:24 I
    2:19:24 don’t
    2:19:24 know
    2:19:24 how
    2:19:24 many
    2:19:25 years
    2:19:25 and
    2:19:25 all
    2:19:25 those
    2:19:26 technical
    2:19:26 assessments
    2:19:26 are
    2:19:27 still
    2:19:27 to
    2:19:27 come
    2:19:28 but
    2:19:28 significant
    2:19:29 damage
    2:19:29 so
    2:19:29 the
    2:19:30 question
    2:19:30 as I
    2:19:30 said
    2:19:31 is
    2:19:32 have
    2:19:32 they
    2:19:32 retained
    2:19:32 enough
    2:19:33 capabilities
    2:19:34 that
    2:19:34 they’ve
    2:19:34 squirreled
    2:19:35 away
    2:19:35 stored
    2:19:35 in
    2:19:36 covert
    2:19:36 sites
    2:19:37 put
    2:19:37 under
    2:19:37 deeply
    2:19:38 buried
    2:19:38 tunnels
    2:19:39 to
    2:19:39 break
    2:19:39 out
    2:19:39 to
    2:19:40 nuclear
    2:19:40 weapons
    2:19:41 that’s
    2:19:41 Scott’s
    2:19:41 concern
    2:19:42 it’s
    2:19:42 my
    2:19:42 concern
    2:19:43 Lex
    2:19:43 I’m
    2:19:43 sure
    2:19:43 it’s
    2:19:43 your
    2:19:44 concern
    2:19:44 that
    2:19:44 they
    2:19:44 could
    2:19:45 do
    2:19:45 that
    2:19:45 or
    2:19:46 have
    2:19:46 they
    2:19:47 set
    2:19:47 back
    2:19:47 the
    2:19:47 program
    2:19:48 so
    2:19:48 significantly
    2:19:49 that
    2:19:49 Khamenei
    2:19:50 then has
    2:19:50 to
    2:19:51 decide
    2:19:51 will
    2:19:52 I
    2:19:52 be
    2:19:52 inviting
    2:19:53 another
    2:19:53 Israeli
    2:19:53 and or
    2:19:54 US
    2:19:54 attack
    2:19:55 if
    2:19:55 I
    2:19:55 try
    2:19:55 to
    2:19:56 break
    2:19:56 out
    2:19:56 and
    2:19:56 if
    2:19:56 I
    2:19:57 do
    2:19:57 do
    2:19:58 I
    2:19:58 risk
    2:19:58 my
    2:19:58 regime
    2:19:59 who
    2:19:59 thinks
    2:19:59 that
    2:19:59 if
    2:20:00 they
    2:20:00 break
    2:20:00 out
    2:20:00 and
    2:20:00 try
    2:20:00 to
    2:20:01 start
    2:20:01 making
    2:20:01 nukes
    2:20:02 now
    2:20:02 that
    2:20:03 any
    2:20:03 hawk
    2:20:04 supporting
    2:20:04 this
    2:20:04 war
    2:20:04 will
    2:20:04 take
    2:20:05 responsibility
    2:20:05 for
    2:20:06 driving
    2:20:06 them
    2:20:06 to
    2:20:06 it
    2:20:07 so
    2:20:07 the
    2:20:08 suggestion
    2:20:08 you’re
    2:20:08 making
    2:20:08 is
    2:20:10 we’re
    2:20:10 actually
    2:20:10 driving
    2:20:12 of course
    2:20:12 to doing
    2:20:12 the
    2:20:12 opposite
    2:20:13 we’re
    2:20:13 actually
    2:20:13 driving
    2:20:14 them
    2:20:14 to
    2:20:14 develop
    2:20:14 nuclear
    2:20:15 weapons
    2:20:15 that’s
    2:20:23 program
    2:20:23 well
    2:20:24 let’s
    2:20:24 not
    2:20:24 take
    2:20:24 him
    2:20:25 at
    2:20:25 his
    2:20:25 word
    2:20:25 again
    2:20:26 I
    2:20:26 never
    2:20:27 said
    2:20:28 in
    2:20:28 this
    2:20:28 conversation
    2:20:29 trust
    2:20:29 the
    2:20:30 ayatollah
    2:20:31 he did
    2:20:31 yeah but
    2:20:32 you said
    2:20:32 that the
    2:20:32 ayatollah
    2:20:33 doesn’t want
    2:20:33 a nuclear
    2:20:33 weapons
    2:20:34 program
    2:20:34 Scott
    2:20:34 you were
    2:20:35 very
    2:20:35 clear
    2:20:35 about
    2:20:35 that
    2:20:36 what
    2:20:36 I
    2:20:36 said
    2:20:36 what
    2:20:37 I
    2:20:37 never
    2:20:37 wanted
    2:20:38 a nuclear
    2:20:38 weapons
    2:20:38 program
    2:20:39 are you
    2:20:39 going
    2:20:39 back
    2:20:40 on
    2:20:40 that
    2:20:40 now
    2:20:40 Jesus
    2:20:40 Christ
    2:20:41 what I
    2:20:41 was
    2:20:41 very
    2:20:42 clear
    2:20:42 about
    2:20:42 from
    2:20:42 my
    2:20:43 very
    2:20:43 first
    2:20:43 statement
    2:20:44 when
    2:20:44 we
    2:20:44 sat
    2:20:45 down
    2:20:45 was
    2:20:45 that
    2:20:45 the
    2:20:46 ayatollah
    2:20:46 was
    2:20:46 building
    2:20:47 himself
    2:20:47 a
    2:20:47 latent
    2:20:48 nuclear
    2:20:48 deterrent
    2:20:49 putting
    2:20:50 Iran
    2:20:50 as
    2:20:50 what
    2:20:50 they
    2:20:50 call
    2:20:50 a
    2:20:51 threshold
    2:20:52 nuclear
    2:20:52 weapons
    2:20:52 state
    2:20:53 just like
    2:20:54 Brazil
    2:20:54 and Germany
    2:20:55 and Japan
    2:20:56 so everyone
    2:20:56 knows
    2:20:57 they have
    2:20:57 mastered
    2:20:57 the fuel
    2:20:58 cycle
    2:20:58 they could
    2:20:59 enrich
    2:20:59 uranium
    2:21:00 up to
    2:21:00 90%
    2:21:01 don’t
    2:21:01 make
    2:21:01 me
    2:21:02 do
    2:21:02 it
    2:21:02 that
    2:21:02 was
    2:21:02 his
    2:21:03 position
    2:21:05 did
    2:21:05 you ever
    2:21:05 hear
    2:21:06 me
    2:21:06 say
    2:21:08 anything
    2:21:08 about
    2:21:08 believing
    2:21:09 the
    2:21:09 ayatollah
    2:21:10 saying
    2:21:10 he only
    2:21:10 wanted
    2:21:11 an
    2:21:11 electricity
    2:21:12 program
    2:21:12 this
    2:21:12 is
    2:21:13 why
    2:21:14 enrichment
    2:21:14 is
    2:21:15 a
    2:21:15 red
    2:21:15 line
    2:21:16 it’s
    2:21:16 because
    2:21:16 if
    2:21:17 all
    2:21:17 the
    2:21:17 enrichment
    2:21:17 is
    2:21:18 done
    2:21:18 overseas
    2:21:19 somewhere
    2:21:20 then it’s
    2:21:20 not a
    2:21:20 latent
    2:21:21 nuclear
    2:21:21 deterrent
    2:21:22 at all
    2:21:22 so it’s
    2:21:22 a red
    2:21:22 line
    2:21:23 for you
    2:21:23 as well
    2:21:24 as for me
    2:21:24 we agree
    2:21:24 Scott
    2:21:25 I’m saying
    2:21:25 it’s a
    2:21:25 red
    2:21:26 line
    2:21:26 for the
    2:21:27 ayatollah
    2:21:27 that he’s
    2:21:27 clearly
    2:21:28 not going
    2:21:28 to give
    2:21:29 in on
    2:21:30 and it’s
    2:21:30 a poison
    2:21:31 pill
    2:21:31 by the
    2:21:32 Israelis
    2:21:32 in the
    2:21:33 west
    2:21:33 they know
    2:21:33 he’s
    2:21:33 never
    2:21:34 going
    2:21:34 to
    2:21:34 give
    2:21:34 up
    2:21:35 enrichment
    2:21:36 100%
    2:21:37 because
    2:21:37 that’s
    2:21:38 the whole
    2:21:38 point
    2:21:38 of it
    2:21:39 so it’s
    2:21:45 that’s
    2:21:45 his
    2:21:45 official
    2:21:46 position
    2:21:46 or if
    2:21:46 it is
    2:21:46 it’s
    2:21:47 with a
    2:21:47 strong
    2:21:48 implication
    2:21:48 as
    2:21:49 everyone
    2:21:49 understands
    2:21:50 that
    2:21:51 it’s
    2:21:51 a
    2:21:52 latent
    2:21:52 nuclear
    2:21:53 weapons
    2:21:53 capability
    2:21:54 and
    2:21:54 a
    2:21:55 potential
    2:21:56 actual
    2:21:57 nuclear
    2:21:57 weapons
    2:21:57 capability
    2:21:58 will
    2:21:59 have
    2:21:59 to
    2:21:59 include
    2:21:59 enrichment
    2:22:00 yes
    2:22:01 that is
    2:22:01 a
    2:22:01 red
    2:22:01 line
    2:22:01 he
    2:22:01 will
    2:22:01 move
    2:22:02 up
    2:22:02 yes
    2:22:02 and
    2:22:02 then
    2:22:03 the
    2:22:03 thing
    2:22:03 is
    2:22:03 too
    2:22:03 just like
    2:22:04 I was
    2:22:04 saying
    2:22:04 before
    2:22:05 if
    2:22:05 Trump
    2:22:06 had
    2:22:06 come
    2:22:06 in
    2:22:06 in
    2:22:07 2017
    2:22:08 and
    2:22:08 said
    2:22:08 screw
    2:22:09 this
    2:22:09 I
    2:22:09 hate
    2:22:09 this
    2:22:10 deal
    2:22:10 and
    2:22:10 then
    2:22:10 got
    2:22:10 on
    2:22:11 a
    2:22:11 plane
    2:22:11 and
    2:22:11 flown
    2:22:12 straight
    2:22:12 to
    2:22:12 Tehran
    2:22:13 and
    2:22:13 said
    2:22:14 or
    2:22:14 you
    2:22:14 know
    2:22:14 sent
    2:22:14 his
    2:22:15 guys
    2:22:15 and
    2:22:16 said
    2:22:16 now
    2:22:16 listen
    2:22:16 here
    2:22:17 Ayatollah
    2:22:17 I want
    2:22:18 to fix
    2:22:18 this
    2:22:18 deal
    2:22:19 up
    2:22:28 again
    2:22:28 I
    2:22:28 criticized
    2:22:29 the
    2:22:29 CIA
    2:22:29 and
    2:22:29 FBI
    2:22:29 for
    2:22:30 framing
    2:22:30 Trump
    2:22:30 for
    2:22:30 treason
    2:22:31 for
    2:22:31 preventing
    2:22:31 him
    2:22:32 for
    2:22:32 being
    2:22:32 able
    2:22:32 to
    2:22:33 work
    2:22:33 with
    2:22:33 the
    2:22:33 Russians
    2:22:33 to
    2:22:34 see
    2:22:34 if
    2:22:34 maybe
    2:22:34 they
    2:22:34 could
    2:22:34 put
    2:22:35 pressure
    2:22:35 on
    2:22:35 the
    2:22:35 Ayatollah
    2:22:36 to
    2:22:36 deal
    2:22:36 with
    2:22:36 him
    2:22:37 but
    2:22:37 I
    2:22:58 if
    2:22:59 necessary
    2:23:00 to
    2:23:00 weapons
    2:23:01 great
    2:23:01 if
    2:23:01 a
    2:23:02 crisis
    2:23:02 breaks
    2:23:02 out
    2:23:02 and
    2:23:03 he
    2:23:03 feels
    2:23:03 like
    2:23:03 he
    2:23:03 has
    2:23:03 to
    2:23:04 make
    2:23:04 nukes
    2:23:04 but
    2:23:05 he
    2:23:05 had
    2:23:06 no
    2:23:07 stockpile
    2:23:07 to
    2:23:08 enrich
    2:23:08 this
    2:23:08 whole
    2:23:08 thing
    2:23:08 about
    2:23:09 99%
    2:23:09 of
    2:23:09 the
    2:23:09 way
    2:23:10 there
    2:23:10 he
    2:23:10 had
    2:23:10 no
    2:23:11 stockpile
    2:23:12 so
    2:23:12 even
    2:23:12 if
    2:23:12 you
    2:23:13 count
    2:23:14 gassing
    2:23:14 up
    2:23:14 your
    2:23:15 truck
    2:23:15 on
    2:23:15 the
    2:23:15 way
    2:23:15 to
    2:23:15 the
    2:23:15 mine
    2:23:16 as
    2:23:16 part
    2:23:16 of
    2:23:16 this
    2:23:17 long
    2:23:17 time
    2:23:17 scale
    2:23:17 of
    2:23:18 percentages
    2:23:18 here
    2:23:19 they
    2:23:19 were
    2:23:19 much
    2:23:20 further
    2:23:21 from
    2:23:21 a
    2:23:21 under
    2:23:21 the
    2:23:21 deal
    2:23:22 which
    2:23:22 he
    2:23:22 agrees
    2:23:22 we
    2:23:23 shouldn’t
    2:23:23 have
    2:23:23 even
    2:23:23 gotten
    2:23:24 out
    2:23:24 of
    2:23:24 can
    2:23:24 I
    2:23:24 say
    2:23:25 technically
    2:23:25 just
    2:23:25 I
    2:23:25 think
    2:23:25 again
    2:23:26 important
    2:23:26 for
    2:23:26 your
    2:23:27 listeners
    2:23:27 to
    2:23:27 understand
    2:23:28 under
    2:23:28 the
    2:23:29 JCPOA
    2:23:31 Iran
    2:23:31 is
    2:23:31 allowed
    2:23:32 to
    2:23:32 keep
    2:23:32 a
    2:23:33 stockpile
    2:23:33 of
    2:23:34 maximum
    2:23:35 300
    2:23:35 kilograms
    2:23:35 as I
    2:23:36 remember
    2:23:37 3.67%
    2:23:38 enriched
    2:23:38 material
    2:23:39 they’re
    2:23:39 allowed
    2:23:39 to
    2:23:39 continue
    2:23:40 to
    2:23:40 enrich
    2:23:41 as
    2:23:41 long
    2:23:41 as
    2:23:42 if
    2:23:42 they
    2:23:42 go
    2:23:42 over
    2:23:43 the
    2:23:43 300
    2:23:43 kilogram
    2:23:44 they
    2:23:44 have
    2:23:44 to
    2:23:45 send
    2:23:45 that
    2:23:45 out
    2:23:45 to
    2:23:47 Russia
    2:23:48 to
    2:23:48 blend
    2:23:48 down
    2:23:49 and
    2:23:49 so
    2:23:49 they
    2:23:50 kept
    2:23:50 the
    2:23:50 enrichment
    2:23:51 capability
    2:23:51 the
    2:23:52 ability
    2:23:52 to
    2:23:52 enrich
    2:23:53 they
    2:23:53 did
    2:23:54 keep
    2:23:54 a
    2:23:54 stockpile
    2:23:55 Scott’s
    2:23:56 right
    2:23:56 they
    2:23:56 weren’t
    2:23:56 able
    2:23:57 to
    2:23:57 they’re
    2:23:57 not
    2:23:57 allowed
    2:23:58 in
    2:23:58 those
    2:23:58 early
    2:23:59 years
    2:23:59 to
    2:23:59 go
    2:23:59 under
    2:24:00 3.67%
    2:24:01 they
    2:24:01 would
    2:24:01 be
    2:24:03 allowed
    2:24:03 to
    2:24:03 go
    2:24:03 to
    2:24:04 20%
    2:24:04 and
    2:24:04 60%
    2:24:04 and
    2:24:05 90%
    2:24:05 as
    2:24:05 the
    2:24:06 restrictions
    2:24:07 sunsetted
    2:24:07 but
    2:24:07 they
    2:24:08 were
    2:24:08 able
    2:24:08 to
    2:24:08 keep
    2:24:08 all
    2:24:09 of
    2:24:09 those
    2:24:09 keep
    2:24:10 capabilities
    2:24:10 so
    2:24:10 I
    2:24:10 just
    2:24:10 want
    2:24:10 to
    2:24:16 comment
    2:24:16 on
    2:24:16 the
    2:24:17 so
    2:24:17 called
    2:24:18 Operation
    2:24:18 Midnight
    2:24:18 Hammer
    2:24:20 now
    2:24:20 that
    2:24:20 we
    2:24:20 can
    2:24:21 look
    2:24:21 back
    2:24:21 at
    2:24:21 it
    2:24:22 what
    2:24:22 parts
    2:24:23 were
    2:24:23 successful
    2:24:24 or
    2:24:25 what
    2:24:25 parts
    2:24:25 were
    2:24:25 a
    2:24:25 mistake
    2:24:26 was
    2:24:26 the
    2:24:26 whole
    2:24:27 operation
    2:24:27 a
    2:24:28 mistake
    2:24:29 that
    2:24:29 accelerates
    2:24:30 the Iran
    2:24:31 nuclear
    2:24:31 program
    2:24:31 or the
    2:24:32 incentives
    2:24:32 for it
    2:24:33 or is
    2:24:33 there
    2:24:33 some
    2:24:33 components
    2:24:33 that
    2:24:34 actually
    2:24:34 is
    2:24:34 a
    2:24:35 disincentive
    2:24:36 for Iran
    2:24:37 to develop
    2:24:37 the
    2:24:37 program
    2:24:37 and
    2:24:38 then
    2:24:38 maybe
    2:24:38 you
    2:24:38 can
    2:24:38 comment
    2:24:38 on
    2:24:39 the
    2:24:39 same
    2:24:39 it
    2:24:39 be
    2:24:39 nice
    2:24:40 to
    2:24:40 get
    2:24:40 comments
    2:24:40 I
    2:24:40 think
    2:24:41 we
    2:24:41 really
    2:24:41 don’t
    2:24:41 know
    2:24:42 right
    2:24:42 there’s
    2:24:43 some
    2:24:43 initial
    2:24:43 battle
    2:24:44 assessments
    2:24:44 and
    2:24:45 arguments
    2:24:45 and
    2:24:45 all
    2:24:45 that
    2:24:46 about
    2:24:46 just
    2:24:46 how
    2:24:46 much
    2:24:46 was
    2:24:47 destroyed
    2:24:47 and
    2:24:47 what
    2:24:48 and
    2:24:48 we
    2:24:48 don’t
    2:24:48 know
    2:24:48 exactly
    2:24:49 what
    2:24:49 their
    2:24:49 reaction
    2:24:49 is
    2:24:50 going
    2:24:50 to
    2:24:50 be
    2:24:52 the
    2:24:53 you
    2:24:53 know
    2:24:53 there
    2:24:53 were
    2:24:54 reports
    2:24:54 of
    2:24:54 them
    2:24:54 saying
    2:24:54 hey
    2:24:55 we’re
    2:24:55 already
    2:24:55 starting
    2:24:56 up
    2:24:56 a
    2:24:56 new
    2:24:57 facility
    2:24:57 somewhere
    2:24:58 else
    2:24:58 there
    2:24:59 were
    2:24:59 reports
    2:24:59 where
    2:24:59 they
    2:24:59 said
    2:25:00 hey
    2:25:00 a lot
    2:25:00 of
    2:25:00 our
    2:25:01 centrifuge
    2:25:01 just
    2:25:01 survived
    2:25:02 and
    2:25:02 we’re
    2:25:02 going
    2:25:11 the
    2:25:11 apocalyptic
    2:25:11 threat
    2:25:12 of
    2:25:12 the
    2:25:12 I told
    2:25:12 which
    2:25:12 mark
    2:25:13 has
    2:25:13 not
    2:25:13 made
    2:25:13 but
    2:25:14 which
    2:25:14 israel
    2:25:15 hawks
    2:25:15 often
    2:25:15 do
    2:25:16 that
    2:25:16 these
    2:25:16 guys
    2:25:16 just
    2:25:17 can’t
    2:25:17 wait
    2:25:17 to
    2:25:17 get
    2:25:17 into
    2:25:17 a
    2:25:18 war
    2:25:18 in
    2:25:18 all
    2:25:18 this
    2:25:19 in
    2:25:19 fact
    2:25:19 if you
    2:25:20 look
    2:25:20 at
    2:25:20 well
    2:25:20 they’re
    2:25:20 in
    2:25:21 a war
    2:25:21 but
    2:25:21 if
    2:25:21 you
    2:25:24 interrupt
    2:25:24 me
    2:25:24 every
    2:25:25 time
    2:25:25 I try
    2:25:26 to say
    2:25:26 you’re
    2:25:27 mischaracterizing
    2:25:27 what I’m
    2:25:28 saying
    2:25:28 I need
    2:25:28 to
    2:25:28 clarify
    2:25:30 he’s
    2:25:30 not
    2:25:30 interrupting
    2:25:30 every
    2:25:30 time
    2:25:31 but
    2:25:31 sometimes
    2:25:32 interrupting
    2:25:32 yes
    2:25:33 so
    2:25:33 try
    2:25:34 not
    2:25:34 to
    2:25:34 interrupt
    2:25:34 as
    2:25:34 much
    2:25:35 go
    2:25:36 ahead
    2:25:36 Scott
    2:25:36 don’t
    2:25:37 take
    2:25:37 it
    2:25:37 personally
    2:25:37 come
    2:25:38 on
    2:25:38 let’s
    2:25:38 go
    2:25:39 it
    2:25:39 seems
    2:25:39 like
    2:25:39 a
    2:25:40 deliberate
    2:25:40 attempt
    2:25:40 to
    2:25:41 obfuscate
    2:25:42 and
    2:25:42 and prevent
    2:25:43 me
    2:25:43 from just
    2:25:43 being able
    2:25:44 to complete
    2:25:45 a point
    2:25:45 you know
    2:25:45 he does
    2:25:45 it
    2:25:46 virtually
    2:25:46 every
    2:25:47 time
    2:25:47 no
    2:25:47 it’s
    2:25:47 not
    2:25:48 as a
    2:25:48 listener
    2:25:48 I’m
    2:25:49 enjoying
    2:25:49 this
    2:25:50 well
    2:25:50 look
    2:25:50 on
    2:25:51 the
    2:25:51 face
    2:25:51 of
    2:25:51 it
    2:25:52 they
    2:25:52 blew
    2:25:52 up
    2:25:52 a lot
    2:25:52 of
    2:25:53 stuff
    2:25:53 and
    2:25:53 they
    2:25:54 made
    2:25:54 them
    2:25:54 very
    2:25:54 angry
    2:25:55 so
    2:25:55 are
    2:25:55 they
    2:25:55 going
    2:25:55 to
    2:25:56 now
    2:25:56 give
    2:25:56 in
    2:25:57 or
    2:25:57 they’re
    2:25:57 now
    2:25:57 going
    2:25:57 to
    2:25:57 double
    2:25:58 down
    2:25:58 or
    2:25:58 they’re
    2:25:59 now
    2:25:59 going
    2:25:59 to
    2:25:59 hold
    2:25:59 still
    2:25:59 we
    2:26:00 don’t
    2:26:00 really
    2:26:00 know
    2:26:01 as I
    2:26:01 was
    2:26:01 trying
    2:26:01 to
    2:26:02 explain
    2:26:04 from
    2:26:04 the
    2:26:05 Ayatollah’s
    2:26:05 position
    2:26:05 that
    2:26:06 he’s
    2:26:06 in
    2:26:07 what
    2:26:07 are
    2:26:07 you
    2:26:08 going
    2:26:08 to
    2:26:08 do
    2:26:08 with
    2:26:08 a
    2:26:09 problem
    2:26:09 like
    2:26:09 the
    2:26:09 United
    2:26:10 States
    2:26:10 of
    2:26:10 America
    2:26:11 right
    2:26:11 they
    2:26:11 can
    2:26:12 chant
    2:26:12 great
    2:26:12 Satan
    2:26:13 this
    2:26:22 to
    2:26:23 in
    2:26:23 fact
    2:26:23 even
    2:26:24 without
    2:26:24 nuclear
    2:26:25 weapons
    2:26:25 essentially
    2:26:26 wipe
    2:26:26 their
    2:26:27 civilization
    2:26:27 off
    2:26:27 the
    2:26:27 face
    2:26:27 of
    2:26:27 the
    2:26:28 earth
    2:26:28 just
    2:26:28 with
    2:26:29 B-52s
    2:26:29 if we
    2:26:29 wanted
    2:26:29 to
    2:26:30 carpet
    2:26:30 bomb
    2:26:30 their
    2:26:30 major
    2:26:31 cities
    2:26:31 and
    2:26:31 they
    2:26:32 so
    2:26:32 they
    2:26:32 know
    2:26:33 that
    2:26:33 the
    2:26:33 Ayatollah
    2:26:34 knows
    2:26:34 he’s
    2:26:34 in a
    2:26:35 very
    2:26:35 difficult
    2:26:35 position
    2:26:36 and
    2:26:36 look
    2:26:36 at
    2:26:36 what
    2:26:36 he
    2:26:37 did
    2:26:37 when
    2:26:37 they
    2:26:38 assassinated
    2:26:38 Soleimani
    2:26:39 he
    2:26:39 sent
    2:26:40 essentially
    2:26:40 a
    2:26:40 symbolic
    2:26:41 strike
    2:26:41 at
    2:26:41 an
    2:26:41 empty
    2:26:42 corner
    2:26:42 of
    2:26:42 an
    2:26:42 American
    2:26:43 base
    2:26:43 in
    2:26:43 Iraq
    2:26:43 it
    2:26:43 did
    2:26:44 cause
    2:26:44 some
    2:26:44 concussions
    2:26:45 and
    2:26:45 head
    2:26:45 trauma
    2:26:45 but
    2:26:46 he
    2:26:47 deliberately
    2:26:47 did
    2:26:47 that
    2:26:47 to
    2:26:48 not
    2:26:48 cause
    2:26:48 casualties
    2:26:49 and
    2:26:49 then
    2:26:49 Trump
    2:26:49 let
    2:26:49 him
    2:26:50 have
    2:26:50 the
    2:26:50 last
    2:26:50 word
    2:26:51 and
    2:26:51 then
    2:26:52 also
    2:26:52 when
    2:26:52 they
    2:26:52 shot
    2:26:52 down
    2:26:52 the
    2:26:53 drone
    2:26:53 which
    2:26:53 I
    2:26:53 think
    2:26:54 Trump
    2:26:54 was
    2:26:54 suspicious
    2:26:55 that
    2:26:55 the
    2:26:55 Pentagon
    2:26:55 had
    2:26:55 flown
    2:26:56 that
    2:26:56 into
    2:26:56 Iranian
    2:26:57 airspace
    2:26:57 and
    2:26:57 they
    2:26:58 demanded
    2:26:58 strikes
    2:26:58 and
    2:26:59 Trump
    2:26:59 said
    2:26:59 no
    2:26:59 it’s
    2:26:59 just
    2:27:00 a
    2:27:00 drone
    2:27:00 how
    2:27:00 many
    2:27:01 Iranians
    2:27:01 will
    2:27:01 die
    2:27:02 at
    2:27:02 the
    2:27:02 base
    2:27:02 you
    2:27:02 want
    2:27:02 to
    2:27:13 our
    2:27:14 central
    2:27:14 command
    2:27:15 headquarters
    2:27:15 the
    2:27:16 al-udid
    2:27:17 airbase
    2:27:17 in
    2:27:18 Qatar
    2:27:18 and
    2:27:19 also
    2:27:19 an
    2:27:19 American
    2:27:20 base
    2:27:21 I think
    2:27:21 in
    2:27:21 Baghdad
    2:27:21 and
    2:27:22 I’m
    2:27:22 not
    2:27:22 sure
    2:27:22 about
    2:27:23 in
    2:27:23 Iraqi
    2:27:24 Kurdistan
    2:27:24 zero
    2:27:25 casualties
    2:27:25 so far
    2:27:26 so
    2:27:27 what
    2:27:27 is
    2:27:27 going
    2:27:27 on
    2:27:28 there
    2:27:28 essentially
    2:27:29 is
    2:27:29 he’s
    2:27:29 gotta
    2:27:30 do
    2:27:30 something
    2:27:31 he’s
    2:27:31 doing
    2:27:31 like
    2:27:31 these
    2:27:32 symbolic
    2:27:32 strikes
    2:27:33 essentially
    2:27:33 to
    2:27:33 say
    2:27:33 like
    2:27:34 hey
    2:27:34 you
    2:27:34 can’t
    2:27:34 do
    2:27:35 that
    2:27:35 to
    2:27:35 me
    2:27:35 but
    2:27:35 then
    2:27:36 he’s
    2:27:36 also
    2:27:37 telegraphing
    2:27:37 that
    2:27:38 hey
    2:27:38 like
    2:27:39 I can’t
    2:27:39 do
    2:27:39 anything
    2:27:39 about
    2:27:40 you
    2:27:40 and
    2:27:40 I
    2:27:40 don’t
    2:27:41 really
    2:27:41 want
    2:27:41 to
    2:27:41 fight
    2:27:42 and
    2:27:42 so
    2:27:43 in
    2:27:43 a
    2:27:43 way
    2:27:43 he’s
    2:27:43 like
    2:27:43 kind
    2:27:43 of
    2:27:44 backing
    2:27:44 down
    2:27:44 he’s
    2:27:44 doing
    2:27:45 and
    2:27:45 then
    2:27:45 what
    2:27:45 did
    2:27:46 Donald
    2:27:46 Trump
    2:27:46 say
    2:27:47 Donald
    2:27:47 Trump
    2:27:48 again
    2:27:48 let
    2:27:48 him
    2:27:48 have
    2:27:48 the
    2:27:48 last
    2:27:49 word
    2:27:49 and
    2:27:49 in
    2:27:50 fact
    2:27:50 like
    2:27:51 bragged
    2:27:51 and
    2:27:51 mocked
    2:27:51 and
    2:27:51 said
    2:27:52 hey
    2:27:52 thanks
    2:27:52 Ayatollah
    2:27:53 for giving
    2:27:53 us
    2:27:53 a
    2:27:54 warning
    2:27:54 that
    2:27:54 you
    2:27:54 were
    2:27:54 about
    2:27:55 to
    2:27:55 shoot
    2:27:55 missiles
    2:27:55 at
    2:27:56 our
    2:27:56 base
    2:27:56 so
    2:27:56 we
    2:27:56 could
    2:27:56 be
    2:27:56 ready
    2:27:57 to
    2:27:57 shoot
    2:27:57 them
    2:27:57 all
    2:27:57 down
    2:27:58 and
    2:27:58 this
    2:27:58 kind
    2:27:58 of
    2:27:58 thing
    2:27:58 and
    2:27:59 he
    2:27:59 said
    2:27:59 now
    2:27:59 is
    2:27:59 the
    2:28:00 time
    2:28:00 for
    2:28:00 peace
    2:28:00 in
    2:28:00 other
    2:28:00 words
    2:28:01 Trump
    2:28:01 again
    2:28:01 letting
    2:28:02 the
    2:28:02 Ayatollah
    2:28:02 get
    2:28:02 the
    2:28:03 last
    2:28:03 word
    2:28:03 why
    2:28:04 because
    2:28:04 the
    2:28:05 Ayatollah
    2:28:06 he
    2:28:06 might
    2:28:06 be
    2:28:07 a
    2:28:07 horrible
    2:28:07 leader
    2:28:08 if
    2:28:08 you
    2:28:08 live
    2:28:08 in
    2:28:09 Iran
    2:28:09 but
    2:28:09 he
    2:28:10 is
    2:28:10 not
    2:28:11 perfectly
    2:28:11 but
    2:28:12 essentially
    2:28:13 cautious
    2:28:13 in
    2:28:13 foreign
    2:28:14 policy
    2:28:15 because
    2:28:15 what’s
    2:28:15 he
    2:28:15 going
    2:28:15 to
    2:28:15 do
    2:28:16 he’s
    2:28:16 going
    2:28:16 to
    2:28:16 decimate
    2:28:17 our
    2:28:17 naval
    2:28:17 base
    2:28:17 at
    2:28:18 Bahrain
    2:28:18 he’s
    2:28:18 going
    2:28:18 to
    2:28:19 slaughter
    2:28:19 all
    2:28:19 our
    2:28:19 troops
    2:28:20 in
    2:28:20 Kuwait
    2:28:21 and
    2:28:21 then
    2:28:21 what’s
    2:28:21 Trump
    2:28:21 going
    2:28:21 to
    2:28:22 do
    2:28:22 and
    2:28:23 so
    2:28:23 the
    2:28:23 Ayatollah
    2:28:24 knows
    2:28:24 so
    2:28:25 it’s
    2:28:25 the
    2:28:25 same
    2:28:26 people
    2:28:26 who
    2:28:27 I
    2:28:28 don’t
    2:28:28 include
    2:28:28 him
    2:28:28 in
    2:28:28 this
    2:28:28 but
    2:28:29 you
    2:28:29 hear
    2:28:29 a lot
    2:28:29 of
    2:28:30 hawkish
    2:28:30 talk
    2:28:30 about
    2:28:30 just
    2:28:31 how
    2:28:31 easy
    2:28:31 this
    2:28:31 has
    2:28:32 been
    2:28:32 these
    2:28:33 same
    2:28:33 people
    2:28:33 talking
    2:28:33 about
    2:28:34 what
    2:28:34 an
    2:28:34 absolutely
    2:28:36 irrational
    2:28:38 religiously
    2:28:39 motivatedly
    2:28:40 and
    2:28:40 motivated
    2:28:40 and
    2:28:41 therefore
    2:28:42 crazy
    2:28:42 and
    2:28:43 irrational
    2:28:44 group
    2:28:44 of
    2:28:44 people
    2:28:44 the
    2:28:44 mullahs
    2:28:45 are
    2:28:45 and
    2:28:45 why
    2:28:45 they
    2:28:45 can
    2:28:45 only
    2:28:46 be
    2:28:46 dealt
    2:28:46 with
    2:28:47 with
    2:28:47 force
    2:28:48 when
    2:28:48 in
    2:28:48 fact
    2:28:49 what
    2:28:49 they’re
    2:28:49 showing
    2:28:50 is
    2:28:51 essential
    2:28:52 conservatism
    2:28:53 trying to
    2:28:54 hold on to
    2:28:54 what they
    2:28:54 got
    2:28:55 making a
    2:28:55 latent
    2:28:55 deterrent
    2:28:56 because
    2:28:56 they
    2:28:56 know
    2:28:56 if
    2:28:56 they
    2:28:56 break
    2:28:57 out
    2:28:57 toward
    2:28:57 a
    2:28:57 bomb
    2:28:57 that’ll
    2:28:58 get
    2:28:58 them
    2:28:58 bombed
    2:28:58 so
    2:28:59 they
    2:28:59 were
    2:28:59 hoping
    2:28:59 having
    2:28:59 a
    2:29:00 latent
    2:29:00 deterrent
    2:29:00 would
    2:29:00 be
    2:29:01 enough
    2:29:01 to
    2:29:02 just
    2:29:02 keep
    2:29:02 them
    2:29:02 at
    2:29:02 the
    2:29:03 status
    2:29:03 quo
    2:29:04 that’s
    2:29:04 why
    2:29:04 it’s
    2:29:04 so
    2:29:15 close
    2:29:15 enough
    2:29:15 for
    2:29:16 us
    2:29:16 so
    2:29:16 it
    2:29:17 doesn’t
    2:29:17 matter
    2:29:17 if
    2:29:18 the
    2:29:18 ayatollahs
    2:29:18 decided
    2:29:19 to
    2:29:19 make
    2:29:19 or
    2:29:19 nuke
    2:29:19 or
    2:29:20 not
    2:29:20 they’re
    2:29:20 just
    2:29:20 too
    2:29:21 close
    2:29:21 to
    2:29:21 one
    2:29:22 as
    2:29:22 it
    2:29:22 is
    2:29:23 which
    2:29:23 is
    2:29:23 really
    2:29:23 silly
    2:29:24 because
    2:29:24 they’re
    2:29:24 not
    2:29:24 much
    2:29:25 closer
    2:29:25 than
    2:29:25 they’ve
    2:29:26 been
    2:29:26 for
    2:29:26 20
    2:29:27 years
    2:29:27 since
    2:29:27 the
    2:29:27 W.
    2:29:27 Bush
    2:29:28 administration
    2:29:29 they’ve
    2:29:29 mastered
    2:29:29 the
    2:29:29 fuel
    2:29:30 cycle
    2:29:30 that
    2:29:30 is
    2:29:30 one
    2:29:30 of
    2:29:31 the
    2:29:32 disagreements
    2:29:32 in
    2:29:32 the
    2:29:32 room
    2:29:33 that
    2:29:33 you’re
    2:29:33 saying
    2:29:34 they
    2:29:34 don’t
    2:29:34 have
    2:29:35 they
    2:29:35 really
    2:29:35 don’t
    2:29:35 have
    2:29:36 interest
    2:29:36 to
    2:29:37 develop
    2:29:37 a
    2:29:37 nuclear
    2:29:38 weapon
    2:29:39 and
    2:29:39 they’re
    2:29:39 not
    2:29:40 quite
    2:29:40 not
    2:29:40 exactly
    2:29:41 I mean
    2:29:41 I
    2:29:41 more
    2:29:42 towards
    2:29:42 that
    2:29:43 direction
    2:29:43 than
    2:29:44 Mark
    2:29:44 is
    2:29:44 saying
    2:29:45 they’re
    2:29:46 saying
    2:29:46 look at
    2:29:46 us
    2:29:46 we’re
    2:29:46 a
    2:29:47 threshold
    2:29:47 state
    2:29:48 don’t
    2:29:48 push
    2:29:48 your
    2:29:49 luck
    2:29:49 and
    2:29:50 force
    2:29:51 us
    2:29:51 to
    2:29:51 make
    2:29:51 the
    2:29:51 bad
    2:29:52 decision
    2:29:52 they
    2:29:52 now
    2:29:53 that’s
    2:29:53 an
    2:29:53 implication
    2:29:53 they
    2:29:53 have
    2:29:54 not
    2:29:54 said
    2:29:54 that
    2:29:54 outright
    2:29:55 but
    2:29:55 clearly
    2:29:55 the
    2:29:56 implication
    2:29:56 is
    2:29:57 that
    2:29:57 if
    2:29:57 we
    2:29:57 force
    2:29:58 them
    2:29:58 then
    2:29:58 they
    2:29:58 will
    2:29:59 go
    2:29:59 ahead
    2:29:59 and
    2:30:00 make
    2:30:00 a
    2:30:00 nuclear
    2:30:00 weapon
    2:30:01 what
    2:30:01 I
    2:30:01 mean
    2:30:01 is
    2:30:01 if
    2:30:02 left
    2:30:02 on
    2:30:02 their
    2:30:02 own
    2:30:03 devices
    2:30:04 they
    2:30:04 would
    2:30:04 not
    2:30:05 develop
    2:30:05 that’s
    2:30:05 the
    2:30:06 case
    2:30:06 you’re
    2:30:06 making
    2:30:06 not
    2:30:07 just
    2:30:07 on
    2:30:07 their
    2:30:07 own
    2:30:08 devices
    2:30:08 but
    2:30:08 if
    2:30:08 we
    2:30:08 were
    2:30:08 to
    2:30:09 try
    2:30:09 to
    2:30:09 negotiate
    2:30:09 with
    2:30:10 them
    2:30:10 in
    2:30:10 good
    2:30:10 faith
    2:30:10 and
    2:30:11 try
    2:30:11 to
    2:30:11 have
    2:30:11 normal
    2:30:12 relations
    2:30:12 with
    2:30:12 them
    2:30:13 that
    2:30:13 would
    2:30:15 disincentivize
    2:30:15 a
    2:30:15 nuclear
    2:30:15 weapon
    2:30:16 even
    2:30:16 further
    2:30:17 can
    2:30:17 you
    2:30:17 comment
    2:30:18 on
    2:30:18 the
    2:30:18 mission
    2:30:19 operation
    2:30:19 sure
    2:30:20 couple
    2:30:21 things
    2:30:21 I
    2:30:21 things
    2:30:21 were
    2:30:21 interesting
    2:30:21 what
    2:30:22 Scott
    2:30:22 said
    2:30:22 and
    2:30:23 I
    2:30:23 agree
    2:30:23 with
    2:30:23 certainly
    2:30:24 with
    2:30:24 some
    2:30:24 of
    2:30:24 it
    2:30:25 I
    2:30:25 mean
    2:30:25 the
    2:30:26 first
    2:30:26 thing
    2:30:26 is
    2:30:26 I
    2:30:26 do
    2:30:27 believe
    2:30:27 President
    2:30:27 Trump
    2:30:27 has
    2:30:28 negotiated
    2:30:28 in
    2:30:28 good
    2:30:28 faith
    2:30:28 I
    2:30:29 mean
    2:30:29 he
    2:30:29 sent
    2:30:29 Steve
    2:30:30 Whitcoff
    2:30:30 he’s
    2:30:30 chief
    2:30:31 negotiator
    2:30:31 for
    2:30:31 five
    2:30:32 rounds
    2:30:32 of
    2:30:32 negotiations
    2:30:33 since
    2:30:33 he
    2:30:33 came
    2:30:33 in
    2:30:33 office
    2:30:34 the
    2:30:35 second
    2:30:35 is
    2:30:35 I
    2:30:35 mean
    2:30:35 we
    2:30:35 can
    2:30:35 keep
    2:30:36 going
    2:30:36 around
    2:30:36 in
    2:30:36 circles
    2:30:37 but
    2:30:37 the
    2:30:38 fact
    2:30:38 of
    2:30:38 the
    2:30:38 matter
    2:30:38 is
    2:30:38 I
    2:30:38 believe
    2:30:39 that
    2:30:51 on
    2:30:51 the
    2:30:51 record
    2:30:52 but
    2:30:52 where
    2:30:52 I
    2:30:52 agree
    2:30:53 with
    2:30:53 Scott
    2:30:53 is
    2:30:54 and
    2:30:54 it’s
    2:30:55 interesting
    2:30:55 and
    2:30:55 I
    2:30:55 don’t
    2:30:55 know
    2:30:55 if
    2:30:56 Khamenei
    2:30:56 has
    2:30:57 changed
    2:30:57 in
    2:30:58 his
    2:30:58 you
    2:30:58 know
    2:30:58 he’s
    2:30:58 86
    2:30:58 years
    2:30:59 old
    2:30:59 he’s
    2:30:59 been
    2:30:59 in
    2:30:59 power
    2:31:00 since
    2:31:00 1989
    2:31:01 and
    2:31:01 there’s
    2:31:01 a
    2:31:01 little
    2:31:01 bit
    2:31:01 of
    2:31:02 history
    2:31:02 that
    2:31:02 I
    2:31:02 think
    2:31:02 is
    2:31:03 really
    2:31:03 interesting
    2:31:03 Lex
    2:31:04 it
    2:31:05 was
    2:31:05 the
    2:31:05 it
    2:31:05 was
    2:31:06 1988
    2:31:07 and
    2:31:08 Iran
    2:31:09 and
    2:31:09 fought
    2:31:09 this
    2:31:10 brutal
    2:31:10 eight
    2:31:10 year
    2:31:10 war
    2:31:10 a
    2:31:11 million
    2:31:11 people
    2:31:11 dead
    2:31:12 and
    2:31:14 the
    2:31:14 United
    2:31:15 States
    2:31:16 accidentally
    2:31:16 shot
    2:31:16 down
    2:31:17 a
    2:31:17 Iranian
    2:31:18 passenger
    2:31:18 airline
    2:31:19 United
    2:31:19 States
    2:31:19 offered
    2:31:20 to pay
    2:31:21 compensation
    2:31:21 and
    2:31:22 apologized
    2:31:23 and
    2:31:23 the
    2:31:23 Iranians
    2:31:23 didn’t
    2:31:23 believe
    2:31:23 it
    2:31:24 they
    2:31:24 didn’t
    2:31:24 believe
    2:31:24 we
    2:31:24 could
    2:31:25 accidentally
    2:31:25 do
    2:31:25 that
    2:31:26 they
    2:31:26 thought
    2:31:26 we
    2:31:26 were
    2:31:26 going
    2:31:26 to
    2:31:26 be
    2:31:27 intervening
    2:31:28 militarily
    2:31:28 on
    2:31:28 behalf
    2:31:29 of
    2:31:29 Saddam
    2:31:30 so
    2:31:30 Khamenei
    2:31:31 who’s
    2:31:31 not
    2:31:31 the
    2:31:31 supreme
    2:31:32 leader
    2:31:32 at
    2:31:32 the
    2:31:32 time
    2:31:33 he
    2:31:33 was
    2:31:33 the
    2:31:33 Iranian
    2:31:34 president
    2:31:35 he
    2:31:35 and
    2:31:35 Raf
    2:31:35 Sanjani
    2:31:36 they
    2:31:36 go
    2:31:36 to
    2:31:37 Khomeini
    2:31:37 and
    2:31:38 they
    2:31:38 say
    2:31:38 Mr.
    2:31:39 Ayatollah
    2:31:40 we
    2:31:40 gotta
    2:31:40 sue
    2:31:40 for
    2:31:40 peace
    2:31:41 with
    2:31:41 the
    2:31:41 Iraqis
    2:31:42 because
    2:31:42 the
    2:31:42 Americans
    2:31:42 are
    2:31:43 intervening
    2:31:43 and
    2:31:43 we
    2:31:44 cannot
    2:31:45 fight
    2:31:45 the
    2:31:45 Americans
    2:31:46 we
    2:31:46 fought
    2:31:46 this
    2:31:46 brutal
    2:31:47 war
    2:31:47 we’ll
    2:31:48 continue
    2:31:48 with
    2:31:48 Saddam
    2:31:49 we
    2:31:49 cannot
    2:31:49 fight
    2:31:49 the
    2:31:49 United
    2:31:50 States
    2:31:50 of
    2:31:50 America
    2:31:50 I
    2:31:51 think
    2:31:51 Scott’s
    2:31:51 right
    2:31:52 like
    2:31:52 that
    2:31:53 perception
    2:31:53 that
    2:31:54 there’s
    2:31:54 no way
    2:31:54 they
    2:31:54 can
    2:31:54 fight
    2:31:54 the
    2:31:55 United
    2:31:55 States
    2:31:55 of
    2:31:55 America
    2:31:55 because
    2:31:56 that’s
    2:31:56 regime
    2:31:56 ending
    2:31:57 potentially
    2:31:57 even
    2:31:57 if
    2:31:57 we
    2:31:58 don’t
    2:31:58 intend
    2:31:58 to
    2:31:59 that
    2:32:08 chalice
    2:32:09 and
    2:32:09 I
    2:32:09 will
    2:32:09 agree
    2:32:09 to
    2:32:09 a
    2:32:10 ceasefire
    2:32:10 on
    2:32:11 pretty
    2:32:11 tough
    2:32:12 terms
    2:32:12 for
    2:32:12 Iran
    2:32:13 it’s
    2:32:13 interesting
    2:32:14 now
    2:32:15 36
    2:32:16 years
    2:32:16 later
    2:32:16 or
    2:32:17 37
    2:32:17 years
    2:32:17 later
    2:32:19 Khamenei
    2:32:19 is now
    2:32:19 going to
    2:32:20 decide
    2:32:20 to
    2:32:20 drink
    2:32:21 the
    2:32:21 poison
    2:32:21 chalice
    2:32:22 does
    2:32:22 he
    2:32:23 agree
    2:32:23 to
    2:32:23 a
    2:32:24 negotiated
    2:32:25 deal
    2:32:25 with
    2:32:25 the
    2:32:25 United
    2:32:26 States
    2:32:26 does
    2:32:26 he
    2:32:26 agree
    2:32:26 to
    2:32:27 deal
    2:32:27 that
    2:32:28 President
    2:32:28 Trump
    2:32:28 and
    2:32:28 I
    2:32:28 mean
    2:32:29 Scott
    2:32:29 criticizes
    2:32:29 me
    2:32:29 for
    2:32:30 it
    2:32:30 but
    2:32:31 that’s
    2:32:31 President
    2:32:31 Trump’s
    2:32:31 position
    2:32:32 is
    2:32:32 no
    2:32:32 enrichment
    2:32:33 full
    2:32:33 dismantlement
    2:32:34 by
    2:32:34 the
    2:32:34 way
    2:32:34 that’s
    2:32:34 backed
    2:32:35 up
    2:32:35 by
    2:32:35 52
    2:32:36 of
    2:32:36 53
    2:32:36 Republican
    2:32:37 senators
    2:32:37 and
    2:32:38 177
    2:32:39 House
    2:32:39 GOP
    2:32:39 members
    2:32:40 and
    2:32:40 backed
    2:32:40 by
    2:32:41 everybody
    2:32:41 in
    2:32:41 his
    2:32:42 administration
    2:32:43 including
    2:32:43 JD
    2:32:44 Vance
    2:32:44 who’s
    2:32:44 been
    2:32:44 emphatic
    2:32:45 about
    2:32:45 that
    2:32:46 does
    2:32:46 he
    2:32:46 agree
    2:32:46 to
    2:32:47 that
    2:32:47 deal
    2:32:47 or
    2:32:48 does
    2:32:48 he
    2:32:48 decide
    2:32:49 I’m
    2:32:49 not
    2:32:49 going
    2:32:49 to
    2:32:49 drink
    2:32:49 the
    2:32:50 poison
    2:32:50 chalice
    2:32:50 and
    2:32:51 I
    2:32:51 am
    2:32:51 going
    2:32:51 to
    2:32:52 take
    2:32:53 other
    2:32:54 options
    2:32:54 now
    2:32:54 I
    2:32:54 agree
    2:32:54 with
    2:32:55 Scott
    2:32:55 like
    2:32:56 going
    2:32:56 after
    2:32:56 US
    2:32:57 military
    2:32:57 basis
    2:32:57 except
    2:32:58 in a
    2:32:58 symbolic
    2:32:58 way
    2:32:59 suicidal
    2:33:00 closing
    2:33:00 the
    2:33:00 straits
    2:33:00 of
    2:33:01 her
    2:33:01 moves
    2:33:02 40%
    2:33:02 of
    2:33:02 Chinese
    2:33:03 oil
    2:33:03 goes
    2:33:03 through
    2:33:03 there
    2:33:04 the
    2:33:04 Chinese
    2:33:04 have
    2:33:04 been
    2:33:04 saying
    2:33:05 Iran
    2:33:05 don’t
    2:33:05 you
    2:33:06 dare
    2:33:06 by
    2:33:06 the
    2:33:06 way
    2:33:07 100%
    2:33:07 of
    2:33:07 Iranian
    2:33:07 oil
    2:33:08 goes
    2:33:08 from
    2:33:08 Iran
    2:33:09 and
    2:33:09 Karg
    2:33:10 Island
    2:33:10 through
    2:33:10 the
    2:33:11 straits
    2:33:11 of
    2:33:11 her
    2:33:11 moves
    2:33:11 so
    2:33:12 economically
    2:33:12 suicidal
    2:33:13 for
    2:33:13 the
    2:33:13 Iranians
    2:33:14 to
    2:33:14 do
    2:33:14 that
    2:33:15 terror
    2:33:16 attacks
    2:33:17 absolutely
    2:33:17 I mean
    2:33:17 that
    2:33:17 has
    2:33:17 been
    2:33:18 their
    2:33:18 modus
    2:33:18 operandi
    2:33:19 for
    2:33:19 years
    2:33:19 so
    2:33:20 I
    2:33:20 would
    2:33:20 be
    2:33:20 concerned
    2:33:21 about
    2:33:22 terrorist
    2:33:23 attacks
    2:33:24 against
    2:33:24 US
    2:33:24 targets
    2:33:25 against
    2:33:26 civilians
    2:33:28 potentially
    2:33:28 sleeper
    2:33:29 cells
    2:33:29 in the
    2:33:29 United
    2:33:29 States
    2:33:30 so
    2:33:30 he’s
    2:33:31 used
    2:33:31 terror
    2:33:32 cells
    2:33:32 around
    2:33:32 the
    2:33:32 world
    2:33:33 he’s
    2:33:33 engaged
    2:33:34 in a
    2:33:34 decades
    2:33:35 long
    2:33:35 assassination
    2:33:36 campaign
    2:33:36 including
    2:33:37 on
    2:33:37 American
    2:33:37 soil
    2:33:37 by the
    2:33:38 way
    2:33:38 sometimes
    2:33:39 successfully
    2:33:39 sometimes
    2:33:40 not
    2:33:41 including
    2:33:41 most
    2:33:41 recently
    2:33:41 where
    2:33:42 he
    2:33:42 went
    2:33:42 after
    2:33:43 an
    2:33:43 Iranian
    2:33:43 American
    2:33:44 three
    2:33:45 times
    2:33:45 to
    2:33:45 try
    2:33:45 to
    2:33:46 assassinate
    2:33:46 her
    2:33:47 in
    2:33:47 New
    2:33:47 York
    2:33:48 a
    2:33:48 woman
    2:33:48 named
    2:33:48 Masi
    2:33:49 Alinejad
    2:33:49 and
    2:33:50 so
    2:33:51 he’s
    2:33:51 got to
    2:33:51 be
    2:33:52 calculating
    2:33:52 like
    2:33:53 what
    2:33:53 is
    2:33:53 my
    2:33:53 play
    2:33:54 so
    2:33:54 if
    2:33:54 I
    2:33:54 don’t
    2:33:54 do
    2:33:55 a
    2:33:55 deal
    2:33:56 how
    2:33:56 can
    2:33:56 I
    2:33:57 actually
    2:33:58 squeeze
    2:33:58 the
    2:33:58 Americans
    2:33:59 and
    2:33:59 Scott’s
    2:34:00 right
    2:34:00 like
    2:34:00 he
    2:34:00 must
    2:34:01 be
    2:34:01 thinking
    2:34:01 to
    2:34:01 himself
    2:34:02 you
    2:34:03 know
    2:34:03 what
    2:34:04 I
    2:34:04 was
    2:34:04 literally
    2:34:04 on
    2:34:04 the
    2:34:05 99
    2:34:05 yard
    2:34:05 line
    2:34:06 with
    2:34:07 entire
    2:34:07 nuclear
    2:34:07 weapons
    2:34:08 capability
    2:34:09 I
    2:34:09 should
    2:34:09 have
    2:34:09 crossed
    2:34:09 goal
    2:34:10 line
    2:34:10 if
    2:34:10 I
    2:34:10 had
    2:34:10 a
    2:34:11 warhead
    2:34:11 a
    2:34:11 nuclear
    2:34:12 warhead
    2:34:12 or
    2:34:13 multiple
    2:34:13 nuclear
    2:34:13 warheads
    2:34:14 as
    2:34:14 they
    2:34:14 had
    2:34:14 been
    2:34:15 trying
    2:34:15 to
    2:34:15 build
    2:34:16 since
    2:34:17 the
    2:34:17 Ahmad
    2:34:17 plan
    2:34:18 in
    2:34:18 early
    2:34:19 2000s
    2:34:20 there’s
    2:34:20 no way
    2:34:21 Israel
    2:34:21 and the
    2:34:21 United
    2:34:22 States
    2:34:22 would
    2:34:22 have
    2:34:22 hit me
    2:34:23 militarily
    2:34:23 if I
    2:34:23 had
    2:34:23 nuclear
    2:34:24 weapons
    2:34:24 and I
    2:34:24 would
    2:34:24 have
    2:34:24 had
    2:34:25 the
    2:34:25 ultimate
    2:34:25 deterrence
    2:34:26 to
    2:34:26 prevent
    2:34:27 that
    2:34:27 and
    2:34:27 then
    2:34:27 I
    2:34:27 would
    2:34:28 be
    2:34:28 like
    2:34:28 Kim
    2:34:28 Jong
    2:34:29 with
    2:34:29 nuclear
    2:34:30 weapons
    2:34:30 I
    2:34:31 would
    2:34:31 then
    2:34:31 build
    2:34:32 ICBMs
    2:34:32 have
    2:34:33 the
    2:34:33 ultimate
    2:34:34 deterrent
    2:34:34 to
    2:34:34 stop
    2:34:35 that
    2:34:35 so
    2:34:35 he’s
    2:34:35 got
    2:34:35 to
    2:34:35 be
    2:34:36 thinking
    2:34:36 maybe
    2:34:37 now
    2:34:37 and
    2:34:37 I
    2:34:38 can
    2:34:38 guarantee
    2:34:38 you
    2:34:39 the
    2:34:39 revolutionary
    2:34:40 guards
    2:34:40 do you
    2:34:40 think
    2:34:40 that
    2:34:41 might
    2:34:41 have
    2:34:41 anything
    2:34:42 to do
    2:34:42 with
    2:34:42 the
    2:34:42 fact
    2:34:43 that
    2:34:43 America
    2:34:44 attacked
    2:34:44 Iraq
    2:34:44 and
    2:34:45 Libya
    2:34:45 when
    2:34:46 they
    2:34:46 did
    2:34:46 not
    2:34:46 have
    2:34:47 weapons
    2:34:47 of
    2:34:47 mass
    2:34:48 destruction
    2:34:48 programs
    2:34:49 can I
    2:34:49 tell you
    2:34:49 the
    2:34:49 Libya
    2:34:49 example
    2:34:50 I
    2:34:50 think
    2:34:50 Scott
    2:34:50 is
    2:34:50 the
    2:34:51 most
    2:34:51 interesting
    2:34:51 one
    2:34:51 for
    2:34:52 me
    2:34:52 right
    2:34:53 because
    2:34:53 the
    2:34:53 Libya
    2:34:54 example
    2:34:54 it was
    2:34:54 big
    2:34:54 mistake
    2:34:55 by
    2:34:55 the
    2:34:55 way
    2:34:55 Ukraine
    2:34:55 is
    2:34:56 another
    2:34:56 good
    2:34:56 example
    2:34:56 of
    2:34:56 this
    2:34:57 we
    2:34:57 went
    2:34:57 to
    2:34:57 the
    2:34:57 Libyans
    2:34:58 and
    2:34:58 we
    2:34:58 said
    2:34:59 you
    2:34:59 must
    2:34:59 fully
    2:35:00 dismantle
    2:35:00 your
    2:35:00 program
    2:35:01 and
    2:35:01 Gaddafi
    2:35:02 said
    2:35:03 reluctantly
    2:35:03 under
    2:35:03 huge
    2:35:04 American
    2:35:04 pressure
    2:35:05 okay
    2:35:05 I’ll
    2:35:05 do
    2:35:05 it
    2:35:06 and
    2:35:06 the
    2:35:08 Americans
    2:35:08 went
    2:35:08 in
    2:35:08 there
    2:35:09 and
    2:35:09 literally
    2:35:10 hauled
    2:35:10 out
    2:35:10 his
    2:35:10 entire
    2:35:11 nuclear
    2:35:11 it
    2:35:11 wasn’t
    2:35:11 really
    2:35:12 a
    2:35:12 program
    2:35:12 it
    2:35:12 was
    2:35:12 just
    2:35:12 a
    2:35:13 bunch
    2:35:13 of
    2:35:13 AQ
    2:35:14 cons
    2:35:14 junk
    2:35:14 sitting
    2:35:14 in
    2:35:15 crates
    2:35:15 in
    2:35:16 warehouse
    2:35:16 they
    2:35:16 did
    2:35:16 not
    2:35:17 have
    2:35:17 the
    2:35:17 capability
    2:35:18 to
    2:35:18 make
    2:35:18 a
    2:35:19 nuclear
    2:35:19 program
    2:35:19 at
    2:35:19 all
    2:35:20 in
    2:35:20 Libya
    2:35:20 they
    2:35:20 didn’t
    2:35:20 have
    2:35:20 the
    2:35:22 engineers
    2:35:22 the
    2:35:22 scientists
    2:35:23 or
    2:35:23 anyone
    2:35:24 so
    2:35:24 Gaddafi
    2:35:24 had
    2:35:25 bought
    2:35:25 that
    2:35:25 junk
    2:35:25 just
    2:35:26 to
    2:35:26 trade
    2:35:26 it
    2:35:26 away
    2:35:26 just
    2:35:26 to
    2:35:27 be
    2:35:27 clear
    2:35:27 there
    2:35:27 never
    2:35:28 was
    2:35:28 a
    2:35:29 nuclear
    2:35:29 weapons
    2:35:30 program
    2:35:31 of
    2:35:31 any
    2:35:31 kind
    2:35:32 in
    2:35:32 Libya
    2:35:32 but
    2:35:33 that
    2:35:33 wasn’t
    2:35:33 my
    2:35:34 point
    2:35:34 okay
    2:35:34 my
    2:35:34 point
    2:35:35 is
    2:35:35 he
    2:35:35 had
    2:35:35 a
    2:35:35 nuclear
    2:35:36 program
    2:35:36 and
    2:35:37 we
    2:35:37 can
    2:35:37 debate
    2:35:38 again
    2:35:39 how
    2:35:46 but
    2:35:46 that’s
    2:35:46 not
    2:35:46 the
    2:35:46 point
    2:35:47 the
    2:35:47 point
    2:35:47 is
    2:35:47 we
    2:35:47 did
    2:35:48 a
    2:35:48 deal
    2:35:48 with
    2:35:48 Gaddafi
    2:35:49 we
    2:35:49 pulled
    2:35:50 out
    2:35:50 his
    2:35:50 nuclear
    2:35:51 program
    2:35:52 and
    2:35:52 then
    2:35:53 I
    2:35:53 don’t
    2:35:53 know
    2:35:53 how
    2:35:53 many
    2:35:53 years
    2:35:54 later
    2:35:54 but
    2:35:54 it
    2:35:54 wasn’t
    2:35:54 too
    2:35:54 many
    2:35:55 years
    2:35:55 later
    2:35:55 seven
    2:35:56 years
    2:35:56 later
    2:35:56 thank
    2:35:56 you
    2:35:57 Scott
    2:35:57 we
    2:35:57 actually
    2:35:58 took
    2:35:59 took
    2:35:59 Gaddafi
    2:36:00 out
    2:36:01 and
    2:36:01 he
    2:36:01 didn’t
    2:36:01 have
    2:36:01 a
    2:36:02 nuclear
    2:36:02 program
    2:36:03 so
    2:36:03 we
    2:36:03 took
    2:36:03 him
    2:36:03 out
    2:36:04 in
    2:36:04 the
    2:36:04 Libya
    2:36:05 operation
    2:36:05 now
    2:36:06 Ukraine
    2:36:06 is
    2:36:07 another
    2:36:07 great
    2:36:07 example
    2:36:08 Ukrainians
    2:36:08 after
    2:36:08 the
    2:36:08 fall
    2:36:08 of
    2:36:09 Soviet
    2:36:09 Union
    2:36:09 you
    2:36:09 know
    2:36:10 this
    2:36:10 they
    2:36:10 had
    2:36:11 the
    2:36:11 Soviet
    2:36:11 nuclear
    2:36:12 arsenal
    2:36:12 or
    2:36:12 good
    2:36:13 parts
    2:36:13 of
    2:36:13 it
    2:36:13 on
    2:36:13 their
    2:36:14 soil
    2:36:14 so
    2:36:14 we
    2:36:15 went
    2:36:15 to
    2:36:15 them
    2:36:15 and
    2:36:15 we
    2:36:15 said
    2:36:16 here’s
    2:36:16 a deal
    2:36:16 for you
    2:36:17 give up
    2:36:17 the
    2:36:18 nuclear
    2:36:18 arsenal
    2:36:19 off
    2:36:19 your
    2:36:20 territory
    2:36:21 and
    2:36:21 we
    2:36:22 and
    2:36:22 the
    2:36:22 Russians
    2:36:23 and the
    2:36:23 French
    2:36:24 guarantee
    2:36:24 your
    2:36:25 territorial
    2:36:25 integrity
    2:36:26 and
    2:36:26 your
    2:36:27 sovereignty
    2:36:27 as
    2:36:27 a
    2:36:27 country
    2:36:28 so
    2:36:28 the
    2:36:28 Ukrainians
    2:36:28 said
    2:36:29 fair
    2:36:29 deal
    2:36:29 to
    2:36:30 me
    2:36:30 gave
    2:36:30 all
    2:36:30 the
    2:36:31 nuclear
    2:36:38 promised
    2:36:38 to
    2:36:38 respect
    2:36:38 it
    2:36:38 and
    2:36:39 the
    2:36:39 Russians
    2:36:39 promised
    2:36:40 to
    2:36:40 and
    2:36:40 both
    2:36:41 sides
    2:36:41 broke
    2:36:41 that
    2:36:42 promise
    2:36:42 but
    2:36:42 there’s
    2:36:43 nothing
    2:36:43 like
    2:36:43 a
    2:36:44 guarantee
    2:36:44 that
    2:36:45 America
    2:36:45 would
    2:36:45 protect
    2:36:46 Ukraine’s
    2:36:47 sovereignty
    2:36:47 and
    2:36:48 they
    2:36:49 had no
    2:36:49 ability
    2:36:50 to
    2:36:50 use
    2:36:50 those
    2:36:50 nukes
    2:36:51 anyway
    2:36:51 because
    2:36:52 they
    2:36:52 were
    2:36:52 Soviet
    2:36:53 nukes
    2:36:53 with
    2:36:53 Soviet
    2:36:54 codes
    2:36:54 they
    2:36:54 belonged
    2:36:55 to
    2:36:55 the
    2:36:55 Soviet
    2:36:55 military
    2:36:56 and
    2:36:56 the
    2:36:56 Ukrainians
    2:36:57 had
    2:36:57 no
    2:36:57 ability
    2:36:57 to
    2:36:58 use
    2:36:58 them
    2:36:58 or
    2:36:58 deliver
    2:36:58 them
    2:36:59 they
    2:36:59 were
    2:36:59 married
    2:36:59 to
    2:37:00 missiles
    2:37:00 that
    2:37:00 were
    2:37:00 made
    2:37:03 my
    2:37:03 point
    2:37:04 is
    2:37:06 if
    2:37:06 you’re
    2:37:07 Khamenei
    2:37:07 and
    2:37:07 you’ve
    2:37:07 seen
    2:37:08 those
    2:37:08 two
    2:37:08 examples
    2:37:09 of
    2:37:09 Libya
    2:37:10 you
    2:37:10 gave
    2:37:10 up
    2:37:11 your
    2:37:11 nuclear
    2:37:12 program
    2:37:12 Gaddafi
    2:37:12 gets
    2:37:13 taken
    2:37:13 down
    2:37:14 you’re
    2:37:14 Ukraine
    2:37:15 you gave
    2:37:15 up
    2:37:15 your
    2:37:15 nuclear
    2:37:16 weapons
    2:37:17 and
    2:37:17 the
    2:37:17 Russians
    2:37:17 invaded
    2:37:18 twice
    2:37:18 if
    2:37:18 you’re
    2:37:19 Khamenei
    2:37:19 thinking
    2:37:19 to
    2:37:20 yourself
    2:37:20 the
    2:37:20 only
    2:37:21 thing
    2:37:21 that
    2:37:21 matters
    2:37:21 more
    2:37:21 to
    2:37:21 me
    2:37:22 than
    2:37:22 my
    2:37:22 nuclear
    2:37:22 weapons
    2:37:23 program
    2:37:23 is
    2:37:23 my
    2:37:24 regime
    2:37:24 survival
    2:37:25 and
    2:37:25 in
    2:37:25 12
    2:37:25 days
    2:37:26 of
    2:37:26 war
    2:37:27 the
    2:37:27 Israelis
    2:37:28 specifically
    2:37:28 because
    2:37:32 we
    2:37:32 the
    2:37:32 United
    2:37:33 States
    2:37:34 hit
    2:37:34 those
    2:37:34 sites
    2:37:35 we
    2:37:35 the
    2:37:36 United
    2:37:36 States
    2:37:37 hit
    2:37:37 those
    2:37:37 sites
    2:37:37 the
    2:37:38 gleeful
    2:37:38 nature
    2:37:39 Scott
    2:37:39 like
    2:37:40 stop
    2:37:40 take
    2:37:40 that
    2:37:40 out
    2:37:41 there’s
    2:37:41 no
    2:37:41 place
    2:37:42 here
    2:37:42 in
    2:37:43 this
    2:37:43 room
    2:37:43 with
    2:37:44 me
    2:37:44 the
    2:37:45 un-American
    2:37:45 bullshit
    2:37:47 don’t
    2:37:47 do
    2:37:47 that
    2:37:48 the
    2:37:48 implication
    2:37:49 here
    2:37:49 man
    2:37:50 is
    2:37:50 that
    2:37:51 I
    2:37:51 me
    2:37:53 am
    2:37:53 un-American
    2:37:54 I’ve
    2:37:54 been
    2:37:54 attacked
    2:37:54 just
    2:37:54 like
    2:37:54 the
    2:37:55 Russian
    2:37:55 hoax
    2:37:56 for
    2:37:56 being
    2:37:56 a
    2:37:56 Putin
    2:37:57 shill
    2:37:57 I’m
    2:37:57 an
    2:37:58 American
    2:37:59 when you
    2:37:59 talk
    2:38:00 about
    2:38:00 Ukraine’s
    2:38:01 war
    2:38:01 with
    2:38:01 Russia
    2:38:01 do
    2:38:01 you
    2:38:01 say
    2:38:02 we
    2:38:03 or
    2:38:03 do
    2:38:03 you
    2:38:03 say
    2:38:03 they
    2:38:04 I
    2:38:04 said
    2:38:04 we
    2:38:04 the
    2:38:04 United
    2:38:05 States
    2:38:05 we
    2:38:05 actually
    2:38:06 added
    2:38:06 the
    2:38:06 United
    2:38:06 States
    2:38:07 but
    2:38:07 you
    2:38:07 would
    2:38:07 just
    2:38:07 describe
    2:38:08 Israel
    2:38:08 strikes
    2:38:09 Israel
    2:38:09 didn’t
    2:38:09 strike
    2:38:09 for
    2:38:10 dough
    2:38:10 Scott
    2:38:10 you
    2:38:10 talked
    2:38:11 about
    2:38:11 the
    2:38:11 U.S.
    2:38:12 attack
    2:38:12 you
    2:38:13 you’re
    2:38:13 speaking
    2:38:13 you’re speaking
    2:38:14 to
    2:38:14 other
    2:38:15 people
    2:38:15 that
    2:38:15 you’ve
    2:38:16 heard
    2:38:16 that
    2:38:17 somehow
    2:38:18 they
    2:38:18 do
    2:38:18 say
    2:38:19 we
    2:38:20 and
    2:38:20 they
    2:38:20 talk
    2:38:21 about
    2:38:22 I
    2:38:22 would
    2:38:22 say
    2:38:24 ridiculously
    2:38:25 as if
    2:38:26 I’ve
    2:38:26 even heard
    2:38:27 some people
    2:38:27 basically put
    2:38:28 Israel above
    2:38:29 U.S.
    2:38:30 and they’re
    2:38:31 American citizens
    2:38:32 yeah that’s
    2:38:32 fucking
    2:38:33 ridiculous
    2:38:34 but none
    2:38:34 of those
    2:38:35 people are
    2:38:35 in this
    2:38:35 room
    2:38:37 there are
    2:38:37 demons
    2:38:38 under the
    2:38:38 bed
    2:38:38 I’m
    2:38:39 sure those
    2:38:39 people exist
    2:38:40 there’s
    2:38:40 ridiculous
    2:38:40 people
    2:38:41 on the
    2:38:41 internet
    2:38:41 there’s
    2:38:42 ridiculous
    2:38:42 people
    2:38:43 in
    2:38:43 Congress
    2:38:44 we can
    2:38:44 criticize
    2:38:45 them
    2:38:45 make fun
    2:38:45 of
    2:38:46 them
    2:38:46 say
    2:38:46 they’re
    2:38:47 fucking
    2:38:47 foundation
    2:38:47 for
    2:38:48 defense
    2:38:48 of
    2:38:48 democracy
    2:38:48 has been
    2:38:49 the
    2:38:49 vanguard
    2:38:49 of the
    2:38:50 war
    2:38:50 party
    2:38:50 in this
    2:38:50 country
    2:38:51 for 25
    2:38:51 years
    2:38:52 well that’s
    2:38:52 a different
    2:38:53 criticism
    2:38:53 but I was
    2:38:54 it’s an
    2:38:54 important
    2:38:55 one
    2:38:55 yeah but
    2:38:56 no you
    2:38:56 just
    2:38:56 switched
    2:38:57 you just
    2:38:57 switched
    2:38:58 well
    2:38:59 you
    2:39:00 no no
    2:39:01 no no
    2:39:01 no no
    2:39:02 there’s
    2:39:02 no
    2:39:03 you just
    2:39:03 switched
    2:39:04 from the
    2:39:04 un-American
    2:39:05 discussion
    2:39:05 to
    2:39:06 criticizing
    2:39:06 policies
    2:39:06 that
    2:39:11 un-American
    2:39:11 bullshit
    2:39:12 Lex
    2:39:12 the
    2:39:13 neoconservative
    2:39:14 movement is the
    2:39:15 vanguard of the
    2:39:16 Israel lobby
    2:39:17 that’s who they are
    2:39:17 that’s what
    2:39:19 neoconservatism is about
    2:39:20 that’s who the
    2:39:20 war party is
    2:39:21 I’m not a neoconservative
    2:39:22 so I don’t know who he’s
    2:39:22 talking about
    2:39:23 but I’m not a neoconservative
    2:39:24 let’s not mix stuff up
    2:39:26 there is a massive
    2:39:27 Israel lobby
    2:39:27 in America
    2:39:28 in Washington
    2:39:29 that is
    2:39:30 inseparable
    2:39:31 from the
    2:39:32 American war party
    2:39:32 I’ve talked to
    2:39:33 John Mearsham
    2:39:34 I respect him
    2:39:34 deeply
    2:39:35 he’s one of the
    2:39:35 most brilliant
    2:39:37 people speaking
    2:39:37 on that topic
    2:39:38 great
    2:39:39 great
    2:39:39 let’s just talk
    2:39:40 about today
    2:39:41 and the
    2:39:42 nuclear proliferation
    2:39:43 you guys have been
    2:39:44 brilliant on this
    2:39:45 I’m learning a lot
    2:39:45 let’s continue
    2:39:47 let’s go back
    2:39:47 to where
    2:39:48 Khamenei may be
    2:39:49 I mean
    2:39:50 in a bunker
    2:39:51 86 years old
    2:39:52 thinking he’s going
    2:39:52 to drink the
    2:39:53 poison chalice
    2:39:54 and agree to a
    2:39:54 deal with
    2:39:55 Donald Trump
    2:39:55 in Oman
    2:39:56 or is he going
    2:39:56 to do all
    2:39:57 of the things
    2:39:58 that Scott
    2:39:58 and I
    2:39:58 are concerned
    2:39:59 about
    2:40:00 and one
    2:40:00 of those
    2:40:01 and Scott
    2:40:01 has pointed
    2:40:02 this out
    2:40:02 rightly so
    2:40:04 is he may
    2:40:05 decide now
    2:40:06 to break out
    2:40:07 for the nuke
    2:40:08 or creep out
    2:40:09 for the nuke
    2:40:09 he may decide
    2:40:10 not to do it
    2:40:10 now
    2:40:11 he may decide
    2:40:11 to do it
    2:40:12 in three and a half
    2:40:13 years when
    2:40:13 President Trump
    2:40:14 is gone
    2:40:15 right
    2:40:15 and I think
    2:40:16 that the
    2:40:17 important thing
    2:40:18 is he’s seen
    2:40:19 we
    2:40:19 the United
    2:40:20 States
    2:40:21 we
    2:40:22 took out
    2:40:22 Fordow
    2:40:23 and Natanz
    2:40:24 and Isfahan
    2:40:26 in one operation
    2:40:27 with B-2 bombers
    2:40:28 and
    2:40:29 12
    2:40:30 30,000 pound
    2:40:31 massive orange
    2:40:31 penetrators
    2:40:33 and Tomahawk
    2:40:33 missiles
    2:40:34 so if he
    2:40:34 doesn’t think
    2:40:35 if he didn’t
    2:40:36 think that
    2:40:36 the United
    2:40:37 States had
    2:40:38 serious military
    2:40:38 power before
    2:40:39 he now
    2:40:40 knows we
    2:40:40 do
    2:40:41 so to you
    2:40:42 that operation
    2:40:44 was geopolitically
    2:40:44 a success
    2:40:45 it sends a message
    2:40:46 of strength
    2:40:47 that if you try
    2:40:47 to build
    2:40:48 you’re going
    2:40:48 to be punished
    2:40:49 for it
    2:40:49 so I’ve
    2:40:50 I’ve said
    2:40:50 I’ve said
    2:40:50 online
    2:40:51 in the past
    2:40:52 12 days
    2:40:52 and even
    2:40:53 before that
    2:40:54 curb your
    2:40:54 enthusiasm
    2:40:55 curb your
    2:40:56 enthusiasm
    2:40:56 to all the
    2:40:56 people
    2:40:57 related to
    2:40:57 which topic
    2:40:57 yeah
    2:40:58 just just
    2:40:59 this sort
    2:40:59 of idea
    2:40:59 that this
    2:41:00 has been
    2:41:00 like this
    2:41:01 unbelievable
    2:41:01 success
    2:41:02 and everything’s
    2:41:03 great and
    2:41:03 everything’s going
    2:41:04 to be amazing
    2:41:04 and we’ve
    2:41:05 stopped the
    2:41:05 nuclear weapons
    2:41:06 program
    2:41:07 and this
    2:41:07 has been
    2:41:08 a resounding
    2:41:08 success
    2:41:09 I’ve just
    2:41:09 said kind
    2:41:09 of curb
    2:41:09 your
    2:41:10 enthusiasm
    2:41:11 Khamenei
    2:41:12 remains very
    2:41:13 dangerous
    2:41:13 the regime
    2:41:14 remains very
    2:41:15 dangerous
    2:41:15 a wounded
    2:41:16 animal
    2:41:16 is the most
    2:41:17 dangerous
    2:41:18 animal
    2:41:18 in the animal
    2:41:19 kingdom
    2:41:20 he retains
    2:41:20 key capabilities
    2:41:21 to build
    2:41:21 weapons
    2:41:22 you demanded
    2:41:23 unconditional
    2:41:23 surrender
    2:41:24 on twitter
    2:41:24 again last
    2:41:25 night right
    2:41:26 after trump
    2:41:26 said there’s
    2:41:27 a ceasefire
    2:41:27 what does
    2:41:28 unconditional
    2:41:28 surrender
    2:41:28 mean
    2:41:29 no enrichment
    2:41:30 full dismantlement
    2:41:31 yes exactly
    2:41:31 right it’s
    2:41:32 exactly what
    2:41:33 president trump
    2:41:33 well
    2:41:34 not regime
    2:41:34 change
    2:41:34 unconditional
    2:41:35 surrender
    2:41:35 in world
    2:41:36 war ii
    2:41:36 meant the
    2:41:36 end of the
    2:41:37 nazi regime
    2:41:37 and the
    2:41:38 imperialist
    2:41:38 japanese
    2:41:39 regime
    2:41:39 entirely
    2:41:40 right
    2:41:40 but president
    2:41:40 trump
    2:41:42 made it very
    2:41:42 clear
    2:41:43 he made it
    2:41:44 clear
    2:41:45 i don’t
    2:41:45 support
    2:41:45 regime
    2:41:46 change
    2:41:46 well except
    2:41:47 for that
    2:41:47 one
    2:41:49 a few
    2:41:49 hours
    2:41:49 earlier
    2:41:50 right
    2:41:50 i’ll
    2:41:50 i’ll
    2:41:51 i actually
    2:41:51 i’ll
    2:41:52 i mean
    2:41:52 i’ll explain
    2:41:53 that one
    2:41:53 because i
    2:41:53 thought it
    2:41:54 was really
    2:41:54 analyzing
    2:41:55 like it’s
    2:41:55 shakespeare
    2:41:55 what is
    2:41:55 that
    2:41:56 yeah yeah
    2:41:56 and what
    2:41:57 what did
    2:41:57 he also
    2:41:57 mean
    2:41:58 we have
    2:41:58 two
    2:41:58 countries
    2:41:59 that have
    2:41:59 been
    2:41:59 fighting
    2:42:00 so long
    2:42:00 it’s
    2:42:00 so hard
    2:42:01 that they
    2:42:01 don’t know
    2:42:01 what the
    2:42:02 fuck
    2:42:02 they’re
    2:42:02 doing
    2:42:02 what’s
    2:42:02 that
    2:42:03 about
    2:42:03 he was
    2:42:03 angry
    2:42:04 that israel
    2:42:04 was still
    2:42:05 attacking
    2:42:05 after he
    2:42:05 promised
    2:42:06 they weren’t
    2:42:07 he demanded
    2:42:07 they turn
    2:42:08 their planes
    2:42:08 around
    2:42:09 he felt
    2:42:09 that they
    2:42:09 were doing
    2:42:10 it in
    2:42:10 defiance
    2:42:11 of their
    2:42:11 agreement
    2:42:12 but he
    2:42:12 didn’t
    2:42:12 but he didn’t
    2:42:12 say israel
    2:42:13 he’s just
    2:42:13 the both
    2:42:14 countries
    2:42:14 different quote
    2:42:15 different quote
    2:42:16 he did say
    2:42:16 i demand
    2:42:17 i believe it
    2:42:17 was a tweet
    2:42:18 from true
    2:42:18 social
    2:42:19 i demand
    2:42:19 that israel
    2:42:20 turn those
    2:42:21 planes around
    2:42:21 right now
    2:42:22 was how upset
    2:42:23 he was about
    2:42:23 i guess
    2:42:24 donald trump
    2:42:25 doesn’t listen
    2:42:25 to bb
    2:42:25 all the time
    2:42:26 does he
    2:42:26 yeah i guess
    2:42:27 he’s fine
    2:42:27 now they
    2:42:28 respect him
    2:42:28 about as much
    2:42:28 as they
    2:42:29 respect the
    2:42:29 palestinian
    2:42:30 well that’s
    2:42:30 how he’s
    2:42:31 just the
    2:42:31 help
    2:42:33 world leaders
    2:42:33 are interested
    2:42:33 in their
    2:42:34 own nation
    2:42:35 that’s right
    2:42:35 fuck you
    2:42:35 over
    2:42:36 good
    2:42:37 important lesson
    2:42:37 there everyone
    2:42:38 but i think
    2:42:38 what does
    2:42:39 israel care
    2:42:39 about
    2:42:40 israel
    2:42:41 every country
    2:42:41 every country
    2:42:42 that defends
    2:42:43 its national
    2:42:43 interests
    2:42:44 i mean that’s
    2:42:44 not unusual
    2:42:45 for israel
    2:42:45 or any other
    2:42:45 country
    2:42:46 but i think
    2:42:47 to understand
    2:42:47 we’re supposed
    2:42:48 to pretend
    2:42:48 that hey
    2:42:49 whatever israel
    2:42:49 needs
    2:42:50 we’re here
    2:42:50 to serve
    2:42:51 their interests
    2:42:51 if those
    2:42:52 people exist
    2:42:53 they’re un-american
    2:42:54 if people put
    2:42:54 israel’s interest
    2:42:55 we fight
    2:42:55 terrorism
    2:42:56 together
    2:42:56 well we do
    2:42:57 well we
    2:42:59 generate terrorism
    2:42:59 together
    2:42:59 what are you
    2:43:00 talking about
    2:43:01 but that doesn’t
    2:43:01 mean you put
    2:43:02 israel’s interest
    2:43:03 above america’s
    2:43:04 if you do
    2:43:05 you’re un-american
    2:43:05 you know how many
    2:43:06 american lives
    2:43:07 israel intelligence
    2:43:08 community
    2:43:08 is saved
    2:43:11 and ask
    2:43:11 people in the
    2:43:12 fbi and cia
    2:43:12 who work
    2:43:13 counterterrorism
    2:43:13 how many
    2:43:14 american lives
    2:43:15 the israelis
    2:43:15 have saved
    2:43:16 because of
    2:43:17 their intelligence
    2:43:18 capabilities
    2:43:19 how about
    2:43:20 when naftali
    2:43:20 bennett
    2:43:21 well again
    2:43:22 bombed that
    2:43:22 shelter full
    2:43:23 of women
    2:43:23 and children
    2:43:24 and caused
    2:43:24 the september
    2:43:25 11th attack
    2:43:26 that’s what
    2:43:27 happened
    2:43:27 in fact
    2:43:27 i don’t know
    2:43:28 if you know
    2:43:28 the story
    2:43:28 but you could
    2:43:29 google this
    2:43:29 you like
    2:43:29 google and
    2:43:29 things
    2:43:30 it’s on
    2:43:30 google books
    2:43:31 you can read
    2:43:32 perfect soldiers
    2:43:33 by terry
    2:43:33 mcdermott
    2:43:34 or you could
    2:43:34 read the
    2:43:35 looming tower
    2:43:36 by lawrence
    2:43:36 right
    2:43:36 where both
    2:43:37 of them
    2:43:37 explain
    2:43:38 how when
    2:43:39 shimon perez
    2:43:39 launched
    2:43:40 operation
    2:43:40 grapes
    2:43:41 of wrath
    2:43:41 that
    2:43:41 ramzi
    2:43:42 bin
    2:43:42 al-shib
    2:43:42 and
    2:43:43 mohammed
    2:43:43 atta
    2:43:43 filled out
    2:43:44 their last
    2:43:44 will and
    2:43:44 testament
    2:43:45 which was
    2:43:46 like symbolically
    2:43:46 joining the
    2:43:46 army
    2:43:47 to fight
    2:43:48 against the
    2:43:48 infidels
    2:43:49 etc etc
    2:43:49 and when
    2:43:49 and when
    2:43:50 bin laden
    2:43:50 put out
    2:43:51 his first
    2:43:51 declaration
    2:43:52 of war
    2:43:52 a couple
    2:43:52 of months
    2:43:53 later
    2:43:53 it began
    2:43:54 with a
    2:43:54 whole rant
    2:43:55 about the
    2:43:56 106
    2:43:56 women and
    2:43:56 children
    2:43:57 that
    2:43:57 naftali
    2:43:58 bennett
    2:43:58 had killed
    2:43:59 with an
    2:43:59 artillery
    2:44:00 strike
    2:44:00 in a
    2:44:01 un shelter
    2:44:01 in
    2:44:04 canna
    2:44:05 in 1996
    2:44:06 and he
    2:44:06 said
    2:44:07 we’ll never
    2:44:07 forget the
    2:44:08 severed arms
    2:44:09 and heads
    2:44:09 and legs
    2:44:09 of the
    2:44:10 little
    2:44:10 babies
    2:44:10 etc
    2:44:11 and it
    2:44:11 was then
    2:44:12 that
    2:44:12 mohammed
    2:44:13 atta
    2:44:13 and ramzi
    2:44:14 bin al-shib
    2:44:15 decided that
    2:44:15 they would
    2:44:16 join al-qaeda
    2:44:17 and that
    2:44:17 they these
    2:44:18 egyptian
    2:44:18 engineering
    2:44:19 students
    2:44:19 studying in
    2:44:20 hamburg
    2:44:20 germany
    2:44:21 would volunteer
    2:44:21 for the
    2:44:22 saudi
    2:44:22 sheik
    2:44:23 to kill
    2:44:23 3 000
    2:44:24 americans
    2:44:25 to get
    2:44:25 revenge
    2:44:26 for what
    2:44:26 israel
    2:44:27 was doing
    2:44:27 to helpless
    2:44:28 women and
    2:44:28 children
    2:44:30 in lebanon
    2:44:30 as well
    2:44:31 as of course
    2:44:32 that ignores
    2:44:32 the history
    2:44:32 of al-qaeda
    2:44:33 which for years
    2:44:34 before that
    2:44:35 was not on
    2:44:35 the united
    2:44:35 states
    2:44:36 and britain
    2:44:36 and saudi
    2:44:37 arabia
    2:44:38 against the
    2:44:38 united states
    2:44:39 but executing
    2:44:39 them
    2:44:40 you guys
    2:44:41 love pulling
    2:44:41 each other
    2:44:42 into history
    2:44:44 america’s
    2:44:45 problem
    2:44:45 with al-qaeda
    2:44:46 is because
    2:44:48 of israel
    2:44:49 america and
    2:44:49 israel are
    2:44:50 terrorist
    2:44:51 states
    2:44:51 they were
    2:44:52 america’s
    2:44:52 mercenaries
    2:44:53 that we used
    2:44:54 in afghanistan
    2:44:54 in bosnia
    2:44:55 in kosovo
    2:44:56 and chechnya
    2:44:57 but they turned
    2:44:58 against us
    2:44:59 they turned
    2:45:00 against us
    2:45:00 anyone can
    2:45:01 read michael
    2:45:02 schweir’s book
    2:45:02 the former
    2:45:03 chief of the
    2:45:03 cia
    2:45:03 bin laden
    2:45:04 wrote his
    2:45:05 great book
    2:45:06 imperial hubris
    2:45:07 and it’s about
    2:45:08 how the number
    2:45:09 one reason
    2:45:10 they attacked
    2:45:10 us was
    2:45:11 american bases
    2:45:11 on saudi
    2:45:12 soiled
    2:45:12 to bomb
    2:45:12 iraq
    2:45:13 as part
    2:45:14 of israel’s
    2:45:15 dual
    2:45:15 containment
    2:45:16 policy
    2:45:16 and the
    2:45:17 second reason
    2:45:18 was american
    2:45:18 support for
    2:45:19 israel
    2:45:19 in their
    2:45:20 merciless
    2:45:20 persecution
    2:45:21 of the
    2:45:21 palestinians
    2:45:22 and the
    2:45:22 lebanese
    2:45:22 that’s the
    2:45:23 most articulate
    2:45:24 justification
    2:45:24 i’ve ever
    2:45:24 heard for
    2:45:25 al-qaeda
    2:45:25 in my
    2:45:26 life
    2:45:26 but let’s
    2:45:27 let’s not
    2:45:28 a justification
    2:45:29 i’m not saying
    2:45:30 that makes
    2:45:31 what they did
    2:45:31 right
    2:45:32 i’m saying
    2:45:33 that was how
    2:45:33 bin laden
    2:45:34 recruited his
    2:45:35 foot soldiers
    2:45:35 to attack
    2:45:36 this country
    2:45:37 was by citing
    2:45:38 american
    2:45:38 foreign policies
    2:45:40 that were
    2:45:41 directly to
    2:45:41 the detriment
    2:45:42 of the people
    2:45:42 of the middle
    2:45:43 east and
    2:45:44 specifically our
    2:45:45 support for
    2:45:45 israel and
    2:45:46 i’ve never
    2:45:47 heard a pro
    2:45:48 in fact i take
    2:45:48 that back there’s
    2:45:50 one guy a liberal
    2:45:50 from the nation
    2:45:51 magazine named
    2:45:52 eric alterman is
    2:45:53 the only pro
    2:45:54 israel guy i’ve
    2:45:55 ever heard say
    2:45:56 well that may be
    2:45:58 true but i still
    2:45:58 say we gotta
    2:45:59 support israel
    2:46:00 anyway the
    2:46:01 others they’ll
    2:46:01 just pretend that
    2:46:02 terry mcdermott
    2:46:03 never wrote that
    2:46:03 book that lawrence
    2:46:04 right never wrote
    2:46:05 that book that
    2:46:06 muhammad atta had
    2:46:07 no motive to turn
    2:46:08 on the united
    2:46:09 states except for
    2:46:10 muhammad made him
    2:46:11 do it when in fact
    2:46:12 what it was is it
    2:46:12 was the ultra
    2:46:13 violence of
    2:46:14 shimon perez and
    2:46:16 artillery officer
    2:46:17 naftali bennett
    2:46:18 slaughtering women
    2:46:19 and children that
    2:46:20 turned america’s
    2:46:20 mercenaries america
    2:46:21 backed the arab
    2:46:22 afghan army in
    2:46:23 afghanistan in
    2:46:24 bosnia in
    2:46:25 kosovo and in
    2:46:26 chechnya as i
    2:46:26 demonstrate in my
    2:46:28 book and yet as
    2:46:28 he correctly says
    2:46:29 they turned on us
    2:46:30 all through the
    2:46:32 1990s bill clinton
    2:46:32 was still backing
    2:46:33 them anyway after
    2:46:34 they were attacking
    2:46:35 us and including
    2:46:36 at kobar towers
    2:46:36 and they were
    2:46:38 doing that is this
    2:46:39 was a bin ladenite
    2:46:40 plot not hezbollah
    2:46:41 not the shiites
    2:46:42 this was the bin
    2:46:43 ladenites getting
    2:46:44 revenge against us
    2:46:45 for support for
    2:46:46 israel and being
    2:46:47 too close to their
    2:46:48 local dictators that
    2:46:49 they wanted to
    2:46:50 overthrow namely the
    2:46:51 king of saudi and
    2:46:52 the el presidente of
    2:46:54 egypt yes that is
    2:46:55 the cause of the
    2:46:56 september 11th attack
    2:46:56 against the united
    2:46:57 states not the
    2:46:58 taliban hate
    2:46:59 freedom but the
    2:47:01 bin ladenites hate
    2:47:02 american support for
    2:47:03 israel and america
    2:47:05 adopting yeah
    2:47:06 policies israeli
    2:47:07 centric policies like
    2:47:09 martin index uh dual
    2:47:10 containment policy in
    2:47:12 19 america i think
    2:47:12 al-qaeda hates
    2:47:13 america scott i think
    2:47:14 why you know what
    2:47:15 yeah i’ll tell you
    2:47:16 what ali sufan you
    2:47:17 know ali sufan the
    2:47:18 former fbi agent
    2:47:19 counterterrorism agent
    2:47:20 he wrote in his book
    2:47:21 the black banners that
    2:47:23 the bin ladenites said
    2:47:24 to bin laden we
    2:47:25 don’t understand why
    2:47:26 you’re so angry at
    2:47:27 america they’ve been
    2:47:28 so good to us in
    2:47:31 afghanistan in bosnia in
    2:47:32 kosovo and now here
    2:47:34 in chechnya why do
    2:47:34 you want to attack
    2:47:35 them and not
    2:47:37 i have a larger
    2:47:38 agenda that you
    2:47:38 don’t understand
    2:47:39 the disagreement
    2:47:40 between you is clear
    2:47:41 i’ve talked to noam
    2:47:42 chomsky twice
    2:47:43 this guy you focus on
    2:47:44 the criticism
    2:47:44 you should interview
    2:47:45 michael shoyer
    2:47:46 although he’s gone
    2:47:47 pretty crazy lately i
    2:47:48 don’t know maybe not
    2:47:50 anyway we’re going
    2:47:51 into history we’re
    2:47:52 learning a lot the
    2:47:53 perspectives differ
    2:47:54 strongly uh can we
    2:47:56 look into the maybe a
    2:47:57 ridiculous question but
    2:47:58 a nuclear proliferation
    2:47:58 question you already
    2:47:59 started to speak to
    2:48:01 both of you uh if
    2:48:02 you look like 10 20
    2:48:04 years out now does
    2:48:07 does the u.s attacking
    2:48:08 iran does that send a
    2:48:12 message even to mbs to
    2:48:13 other middle eastern
    2:48:14 nations that they need
    2:48:15 to start thinking about
    2:48:17 um a nuclear weapon
    2:48:19 program it’s specifically
    2:48:21 like do you think just
    2:48:22 in a numbers way does
    2:48:23 the number of nukes in
    2:48:24 the world go up in 10
    2:48:26 20 30 years so look i
    2:48:27 i think uh it’s a
    2:48:28 great question will
    2:48:29 there be more nuclear
    2:48:30 weapons powers in the
    2:48:31 future uh or less as
    2:48:32 a result of this decision
    2:48:35 by president trump so i
    2:48:35 actually think there’ll
    2:48:37 be less um and i’ll
    2:48:39 tell you uh it’s succinctly
    2:48:40 as i can and that is
    2:48:41 that it’s been very clear
    2:48:43 from the saudis from the
    2:48:46 turks um certainly from
    2:48:48 the um even the
    2:48:49 algerians and others that
    2:48:51 if iran gets a nuclear
    2:48:52 weapon they too want a
    2:48:53 nuclear weapon in fact
    2:48:55 the saudis have gone even
    2:48:56 further and said if if
    2:48:57 iran is allowed to
    2:48:58 retain the key
    2:48:59 enrichment capability
    2:49:01 that they have under
    2:49:03 jcpoa that we want
    2:49:04 that too there’s an
    2:49:05 iran standard we want
    2:49:06 the iran standard we
    2:49:07 don’t want the gold
    2:49:08 standard in fact that’s
    2:49:09 been the subject of
    2:49:11 intensive negotiations
    2:49:11 between the united
    2:49:12 states and saudi
    2:49:13 arabia for the past
    2:49:14 couple years both under
    2:49:16 biden and trump as part
    2:49:17 of the u.s saudi
    2:49:19 uh agreement defense
    2:49:20 agreement and economic
    2:49:21 agreement that that has
    2:49:23 been underway it is it’s
    2:49:24 very clear that there’s
    2:49:25 going to be a
    2:49:26 proliferation cascade in
    2:49:27 the middle east if the
    2:49:28 iranians get a nuclear
    2:49:29 weapon and certainly if
    2:49:30 they’re allowed to retain
    2:49:32 this enrichment capability
    2:49:33 i also worry about we
    2:49:34 haven’t even talked about
    2:49:35 it at all this
    2:49:36 conversation i mean the
    2:49:38 most important area in
    2:49:39 the world the united
    2:49:40 states is not the middle
    2:49:41 east it’s china and the
    2:49:43 indo-pacific and i worry
    2:49:44 that the south koreans
    2:49:46 the taiwanese and the
    2:49:47 japanese will say you
    2:49:48 know we don’t trust in
    2:49:50 any u.s commitments to
    2:49:52 stop nuclear weapons
    2:49:53 you’ve failed on iran
    2:49:55 we don’t trust you we
    2:49:56 don’t trust your nuclear
    2:49:58 umbrella we too want
    2:50:00 nuclear weapons in order
    2:50:01 to guard our security
    2:50:03 against china and so what
    2:50:05 you would see i i hope
    2:50:06 it doesn’t happen but i
    2:50:07 worry about is this kind
    2:50:08 of proliferation cascade
    2:50:10 in the middle east and in
    2:50:11 the indo-pacific two of
    2:50:12 the most important areas
    2:50:13 for american national
    2:50:14 security which is why i
    2:50:15 think it’s very important
    2:50:18 that that be that iran’s
    2:50:19 be stopped now whether
    2:50:21 this attack is succeeds
    2:50:22 in stopping iran’s
    2:50:23 nuclear weapon or
    2:50:25 accelerates it we we
    2:50:26 disagree but i think
    2:50:28 neither us know yet hard
    2:50:30 to predict but what i
    2:50:31 think is absolutely
    2:50:32 certain is that if iran
    2:50:34 develops that nuclear
    2:50:35 weapon and is allowed to
    2:50:36 retain the key
    2:50:37 capabilities to do so
    2:50:38 you’re going to see
    2:50:40 five six countries in
    2:50:40 the middle east at
    2:50:41 least three four
    2:50:41 countries in the
    2:50:43 indo-pacific asking for
    2:50:44 the same capability and
    2:50:45 then you’re going to
    2:50:46 have a club of nuclear
    2:50:48 weapons powers that
    2:50:49 will have an additional
    2:50:50 five six seven over the
    2:50:52 next 10 to 20 years
    2:50:53 what if they don’t what
    2:50:54 if they’re prevented
    2:50:55 doesn’t that still send
    2:50:56 the same message to
    2:50:58 everybody that they
    2:51:00 should build oh i
    2:51:00 think it sends the
    2:51:01 opposite message lex i
    2:51:03 think if they see what
    2:51:04 has happened and that
    2:51:05 it’s and that it’s
    2:51:06 successful and it
    2:51:07 stopped iran from
    2:51:08 developing nuclear
    2:51:09 weapons and in
    2:51:11 addition trump was
    2:51:12 able to negotiate an
    2:51:13 agreement for zero
    2:51:15 enrichment and full
    2:51:16 dismantlement then the
    2:51:17 message to all these
    2:51:18 other countries is number
    2:51:20 one you don’t need it and
    2:51:21 number two if you try to
    2:51:22 get it then the united
    2:51:24 states is going to use
    2:51:25 american power now i’m not
    2:51:26 suggesting the united
    2:51:27 states is going to start
    2:51:28 bombing the saudis or the
    2:51:29 turks or the emiratis
    2:51:31 clearly not the japanese i
    2:51:31 mean these are many of
    2:51:33 them are allies but i think
    2:51:34 the united states retains
    2:51:36 many tools counter
    2:51:37 proliferation tools to
    2:51:38 prevent these countries
    2:51:39 from developing nuclear
    2:51:41 weapons including you
    2:51:42 know sanctions and
    2:51:43 export controls and many
    2:51:45 of the things and plus i
    2:51:45 think those countries
    2:51:47 you know i understand
    2:51:48 that in the middle east
    2:51:51 despite scott’s focus on
    2:51:53 israel you know when you
    2:51:55 talk to arab leaders
    2:51:57 their biggest concern is
    2:51:58 the threat from iran it’s
    2:51:59 not the threat from israel
    2:52:00 they’re not concerned with
    2:52:01 the threat from israel
    2:52:02 that’s why you had the
    2:52:03 abraham accords you know
    2:52:05 this is why the uae and
    2:52:07 bahrain and morocco entered
    2:52:08 into this peace agreement
    2:52:09 with israel the saudis will
    2:52:10 one day and they’ll bring
    2:52:12 many other arab and muslim
    2:52:13 countries in it they don’t
    2:52:14 say israel is a threat they
    2:52:16 see iran as a threat and so
    2:52:17 if you counter that threat
    2:52:19 you eliminate iran’s
    2:52:20 nuclear weapons
    2:52:22 proliferation and
    2:52:23 expansion those countries
    2:52:25 now no longer have to
    2:52:27 build nuclear weapons
    2:52:28 capabilities to counter the
    2:52:30 iranians now we’ve also
    2:52:31 restored our credibility
    2:52:34 we don’t bluff we said
    2:52:35 iran doesn’t develop nuclear
    2:52:36 weapons they won’t
    2:52:38 and now it’s the japanese
    2:52:40 who have as scott rightly
    2:52:41 pointed out they do have
    2:52:43 reprocessing and plutonium
    2:52:46 capabilities the taiwanese who
    2:52:47 used to have a military
    2:52:48 nuclear weapons program and
    2:52:49 gave it up and the south
    2:52:51 koreans who agree to our
    2:52:52 gold standard of zero
    2:52:54 enrichment zero reprocessing
    2:52:56 those three countries can now
    2:52:57 say okay we rely on the
    2:53:00 united states on your word
    2:53:02 on your power and on your
    2:53:04 ability to to actually turn
    2:53:06 words into action we don’t
    2:53:07 need nuclear weapons so i i’d
    2:53:10 say if successful big f big
    2:53:12 f if successful then it’s
    2:53:15 going to be a significant
    2:53:18 um guard against the
    2:53:19 potential of greater nuclear
    2:53:21 proliferation and we will
    2:53:23 have less nuclear powers
    2:53:25 nuclear weapons powers than uh
    2:53:26 than we otherwise would have
    2:53:27 my favorite thing is when you
    2:53:29 guys point out when you agree
    2:53:30 with the other person
    2:53:32 anyway uh sky what do you
    2:53:33 think what do you think
    2:53:34 everything that’s just
    2:53:35 happened over the past two
    2:53:37 weeks does to nuclear nuclear
    2:53:39 proliferation over the next
    2:53:40 five ten twenty years
    2:53:42 oh i mean i really don’t know
    2:53:43 for sure but i would think
    2:53:45 that um the uh there’s a very
    2:53:48 great danger that it’s going
    2:53:49 to reinforce the lessons of
    2:53:51 north korea iraq and libya
    2:53:53 which is you better get a nuke
    2:53:55 to keep america out and you
    2:53:56 better hurry before it’s too
    2:53:58 late now for the saudis they’re
    2:53:59 not going to do that because
    2:54:00 they’re obviously a very
    2:54:02 close american client state so
    2:54:03 it’s a different dynamic there
    2:54:05 but you know for any country
    2:54:06 that has trouble with the
    2:54:07 united states or is worried
    2:54:09 about the future of their
    2:54:10 ability to maintain their
    2:54:11 national sovereignty
    2:54:13 obviously getting their hands
    2:54:14 on an a-bomb as quickly as
    2:54:17 possible is uh has been you
    2:54:18 know re-incentivized to a
    2:54:20 great degree also i’m really
    2:54:20 worried about the future of
    2:54:22 the non-proliferation treaty
    2:54:23 where the nuclear weapons
    2:54:24 states promise to respect the
    2:54:26 right of non-nuclear weapons
    2:54:27 states to civilian nuclear
    2:54:30 energy and where here you
    2:54:34 have a non-npt signatory
    2:54:36 nuclear weapons state israel
    2:54:38 launch an aggressive war against
    2:54:42 an npt signatory that is was
    2:54:44 not attacking them and was not
    2:54:45 making nuclear weapons and with
    2:54:47 the assistance of the world
    2:54:49 empire the united states another
    2:54:51 nuclear weapons state signatory
    2:54:53 to the npt and i don’t really
    2:54:55 take this that seriously but it’s
    2:54:57 worth at least listening to is
    2:55:01 uh midvedev the uh once and
    2:55:02 probably future president of
    2:55:04 russia he said oh yeah well
    2:55:05 maybe we’ll just give them a
    2:55:07 nuke or kind of implied maybe
    2:55:09 get pakistan to now for people
    2:55:11 familiar with like key and peel
    2:55:13 midvedev is sort of angry obama
    2:55:15 right for putin you know that
    2:55:17 skit where it’s like obama talks
    2:55:19 all calm anger translator he’ll
    2:55:20 goes off like an angry black guy
    2:55:22 kind of character right going nuts
    2:55:25 on twitter midvedev he he goes
    2:55:27 way out you know above and beyond
    2:55:28 but i think he’s probably acting on
    2:55:30 instructions to talk that way and it
    2:55:33 is a real risk that the mpt could
    2:55:36 just fall apart when it becomes when
    2:55:38 it’s treated uh so callously by the
    2:55:40 united states who invented it and
    2:55:42 insisted that the rest of the world
    2:55:43 adopt the thing to such a great
    2:55:45 degree trump did say don’t use the
    2:55:47 n-word he he talked down to midvedev
    2:55:48 that’s right yeah he did around the end
    2:55:51 the nuclear word yeah well and and i
    2:55:53 appreciate that good and i he’s
    2:55:55 right he’s right in that it’s not
    2:55:57 and look the pakistanis could give a
    2:55:59 nuke to iran who are their friends i
    2:56:01 think not the tightest of allies i’m
    2:56:03 not saying i predict that but there’s a
    2:56:06 danger of that um now when it comes to
    2:56:09 you know eastern asia obviously there’s
    2:56:11 a concern about a chinese threat to
    2:56:13 taiwan but nobody thinks china’s coming
    2:56:17 for south korea or japan the the
    2:56:19 question of taiwan is one that’s very
    2:56:21 different because as the american
    2:56:23 president agreed with mao seetong 50
    2:56:26 years ago taiwan is part of china and
    2:56:28 eventually will be reunited although we
    2:56:31 hope that’s not by force since then they
    2:56:33 have essentially abandoned marxism although
    2:56:34 it’s still a one-party authoritarian
    2:56:37 state but they’ve essentially abandoned
    2:56:39 marked marxism adopted markets at least
    2:56:40 to the degree that they’ve been able to
    2:56:44 afford to now build up a giant naval force
    2:56:47 that is capable of retaking taiwan and so
    2:56:49 i think the way to prevent that is not
    2:56:51 for making a bunch of threats and
    2:56:53 setting examples in other places about
    2:56:56 how tough we are but to negotiate with
    2:56:58 the chinese and the taiwanese and figure
    2:57:00 out a way to reunite the two in a
    2:57:03 peaceful way in order to prevent that
    2:57:05 war from breaking out because in fact we
    2:57:07 don’t really have the naval and air
    2:57:09 capability to defend taiwan we could
    2:57:12 lose a lot of guys trying and probably
    2:57:14 kill a lot of chinese trying but in the
    2:57:16 end they’d probably take taiwan anyway
    2:57:18 we’d have lost a bunch of ships and and
    2:57:21 planes for nothing so we can negotiate an
    2:57:23 end to that and then even if america just
    2:57:26 withdrew from the region we could still
    2:57:28 negotiate long-term agreements between
    2:57:31 china japan south korea and whoever
    2:57:33 there’s no reason to think that everyone
    2:57:36 would make a mad scramble to a bomb to
    2:57:39 protect them uh if the moment they are out
    2:57:42 from under america’s nuclear umbrella and
    2:57:44 so forth and the fact of the matter is
    2:57:48 that um you know the greatest threat to
    2:57:50 the status quo as far as the nuclear
    2:57:52 powers go probably is what just happened
    2:57:55 america in israel launching this war
    2:57:58 against a non-nuclear weapon state as a
    2:57:59 member in good standing of this treaty
    2:58:02 throws the the whole as they call it the
    2:58:05 liberal rules based world order into
    2:58:08 question i mean if these rules repeatedly
    2:58:11 always apply to everyone else but very
    2:58:14 often not to us then are they really the
    2:58:16 law or this is just the will of men in
    2:58:19 washington dc and how long do we expect the
    2:58:21 rest of the world to go ahead and abide by
    2:58:23 that if you know a deal is a deal until we
    2:58:26 decide as bill clinton said to wake up one
    2:58:27 morning and decide that we don’t like it
    2:58:30 anymore and and change it that was a phrase
    2:58:34 from the founding act of 97 maybe we’ll
    2:58:35 wake up one morning and decide that we
    2:58:37 don’t want to do something else entirely
    2:58:39 now is that your bill clinton impression
    2:58:41 no i’ll spare you okay that was pretty
    2:58:43 good after the show when we’re not
    2:58:45 recording yeah can i respond to a couple
    2:58:47 things here just really quickly i’ll try
    2:58:49 to do it quickly um first of all you know
    2:58:51 the notion that iran is in full compliance
    2:58:54 with the npt um is is just not the case
    2:58:56 the international atomic energy agency has
    2:58:58 made it clear in report after report after
    2:59:01 report that iran is in violation of its
    2:59:04 obligations under the um protocols of the
    2:59:07 iaea under the request that the iaea have
    2:59:10 made and under the npt so they are a serial
    2:59:12 violator of the npt unlike all these other
    2:59:14 countries we’ve been talking about that are
    2:59:18 allies second is this this quote um iran
    2:59:21 is not attacking israel that’s quite an
    2:59:24 amazing quote um which kind of ignores i
    2:59:28 think uh 50 60 years of iranian attacks
    2:59:33 against israel including um suicide bombings
    2:59:40 and missiles and drones and october 7th and
    2:59:42 it’s indisputable that iran has been
    2:59:44 attacking israel and they’ve been they’ve
    2:59:46 been doing it for many years through their
    2:59:49 terror proxies that they fund and finance and
    2:59:53 and weaponize and since uh october 7th they
    2:59:56 directly struck israel with hundreds of
    2:59:58 ballistic missiles in april and october of
    3:00:00 last year so this notion that before 12 days
    3:00:03 ago iranians were just playing nice with
    3:00:05 israelis and the israelis just came out of
    3:00:07 the blue well you said quote unquote iran is
    3:00:09 not as not attacking israel so i mean it’s
    3:00:11 just not true yeah they were not in a state
    3:00:13 of war until israel launched a state of war
    3:00:15 that’s the fact yeah they were at war you go
    3:00:17 oh well they backed a group that did a
    3:00:19 thing yeah okay kill thousands of israelis
    3:00:21 maimed thousands of israelis but that
    3:00:23 suicide was not ordered in tehran the wall
    3:00:25 street journal says that u.s intelligence
    3:00:27 does not believe that tehran ordered that
    3:00:28 attack like they found out about what
    3:00:30 the wall street journal says and what the
    3:00:32 u.s intelligence says and we can dispute
    3:00:35 whether they directed it on october 7th
    3:00:38 everybody knows indisputably that iran
    3:00:41 financed hamas provided fun
    3:00:44 hamas with weapons just well just a second
    3:00:48 provided hamas with weapons that the irgc and
    3:00:50 the quds force were training hamas hezbollah
    3:00:52 backed by iran was training hamas there were
    3:00:55 three meetings before october 7th one in
    3:00:57 beirut one in damascus and one in tehran
    3:01:00 where the irgc hezbollah hamas and
    3:01:02 palestinian islamic jihad were together
    3:01:04 there was a meeting in tehran that was
    3:01:06 attended by khamenei the supreme leader
    3:01:08 now at those three meetings right before
    3:01:10 october 7th you know maybe they’re
    3:01:12 discussing the weather maybe they were
    3:01:14 discussing persian poetry i don’t know
    3:01:16 but it is hard to believe they weren’t
    3:01:18 discussing something and the fact that
    3:01:21 they had armed hamas financed hamas and
    3:01:23 weaponized hamas suggests to me that
    3:01:25 there is pretty overwhelming evidence that
    3:01:27 iran has been at war with israel for
    3:01:29 decades critics of israel will say that
    3:01:31 benjamin netanyahu has also been
    3:01:34 indirectly financing hamas by allowing the
    3:01:36 fund the funds going to say that america
    3:01:39 backs israel so anything israel does is
    3:01:41 america’s responsibility to under that
    3:01:42 same logic right
    3:01:45 i think you started to make a point
    3:01:47 disagreeing with scott about that they’re
    3:01:49 not a good member of the npt that’s all
    3:01:51 tiny technical violations none of that
    3:01:53 has anything to do with weaponization
    3:01:55 it’s always oh yeah how do you explain
    3:01:56 this isotope and they go well it must
    3:01:58 have came with the pakistani junk that we
    3:01:59 bought from akikon and then later that’s
    3:02:01 verified and they go yeah well we want to
    3:02:03 inspect this let us and they go no and
    3:02:05 then they do a year later and then they
    3:02:07 find nothing yeah that’s just not the
    3:02:09 case that’s just the entire history of
    3:02:12 iran of the iaea’s objections to iran so
    3:02:13 your listeners i know they’re not going to
    3:02:15 do it because it’s a lot of technical
    3:02:17 reading with weaponization but just go out
    3:02:19 go out and diversion of nuclear reports
    3:02:23 dating back at least 20 years and you’ll
    3:02:26 see the ia meticulously methodically
    3:02:30 dispassionately outlining all of the
    3:02:34 violations that iran has embarked on of
    3:02:36 the npt virtually all those are resolved
    3:02:38 later they won’t answer this and then
    3:02:40 later they do they won’t answer that and
    3:02:42 then later they do and many open files are
    3:02:44 still of it still there i mean just again
    3:02:46 like i just i just want your viewers to
    3:02:48 walk away from this conversation thing okay
    3:02:50 that’s interesting i i didn’t know that and
    3:02:52 that i’m gonna go fact check mark and fact
    3:02:54 check scott and just kind of see what this
    3:02:56 is all about right because otherwise it’s
    3:02:59 just he says she says or he says he says
    3:03:03 the fact of the matter is is that iran has
    3:03:06 been in violations of its obligations under
    3:03:09 the npt under the additional protocol it
    3:03:12 never been never uh it never ratified under
    3:03:16 its safeguards obligations under the npt it
    3:03:19 suggests a pattern of nuclear mendacity they
    3:03:21 abided by the additional protocol without
    3:03:23 having ratified it they abided by it for
    3:03:25 three years and did not proceed with any
    3:03:27 enrichment at all as long as they were
    3:03:29 dealing in good faith with the eu until
    3:03:32 w bush ruin those negotiations and close
    3:03:33 them down only then did they begin to
    3:03:35 install the centrifuges at natance it’s
    3:03:37 always the americans screw things you
    3:03:39 complain they didn’t ratify the thing but
    3:03:41 they abided by it for years so that’s an
    3:03:44 interesting violation of it but i think a
    3:03:46 more pragmatic and important disagreement
    3:03:50 that we already spoke to is how do we
    3:03:52 decrease the incentive for iran to build
    3:03:54 nuclear programs not just the next couple
    3:03:57 years but it’s 10 20 years what that’s you’re
    3:03:59 mocking that there’s a lot of people that
    3:04:01 will there’s neocons that say basically
    3:04:03 invade everything let’s make money off of
    3:04:05 war but there’s people that will say that
    3:04:08 you know operation midnight hammer is
    3:04:12 actually a focused hard demonstration of
    3:04:13 strength a piece of strength that is an
    3:04:16 effective way to do geopolitics i mean
    3:04:17 there’s cases to be made for all of it if
    3:04:20 we’re really lucky yeah so it’s a big risk
    3:04:22 is your case so here’s some practical
    3:04:24 recommendations that i think the united states
    3:04:27 should follow i think the first is you know
    3:04:29 get the iranians back to oman negotiate
    3:04:31 with them and do a deal again the deal has to
    3:04:33 be no enrichment full dismantlement i i think
    3:04:35 for the reasons we talked about today scott and
    3:04:37 i passionately disagreed but that’s fine we
    3:04:40 this is this is a reasonable debate
    3:04:42 neither of us is crazy neither of us is
    3:04:45 irrational it is what would it take to get a
    3:04:48 deal with iran i say i say this is the deal
    3:04:50 this has to be our red line scott disagrees
    3:04:51 that’s fine but we got to get a deal
    3:04:54 in that deal we got to provide them financial
    3:04:55 incentives right we’re going to have to lift
    3:04:59 a certain number of sanctions because they’re
    3:05:00 going to have to get something in return
    3:05:04 okay we can argue about exactly how much but
    3:05:05 i think our opening negotiating position is
    3:05:07 no sanctions relief and then we’ll get
    3:05:10 negotiated down from that right i mean like
    3:05:12 i think a lot of this is about how do you
    3:05:14 position yourself for negotiation how do you
    3:05:16 how do you come in with leverage and then
    3:05:19 how do you find areas of compromise where
    3:05:22 you you satisfy your objectives one is oman
    3:05:25 two is the credible threat of military force
    3:05:28 needs to remain right khamenei needs to
    3:05:29 understand that the united states of america
    3:05:33 and israel will use military force to stop
    3:05:34 him from developing nuclear weapons if he
    3:05:37 didn’t believe that before 12 days ago he
    3:05:39 now believes that and i think that’s the
    3:05:42 credibility of that military force has to
    3:05:44 be maintained in order to ensure that he
    3:05:46 does not break out or sneak out to a nuclear
    3:05:48 weapon i think that’s absolutely critical
    3:05:50 third is i think we have to reach agreements
    3:05:52 with all the other countries in the middle
    3:05:54 east to say hey listen we’re demanding
    3:05:56 zero enrichment and full dismantlement from
    3:05:58 the iranians you don’t get enrichment and
    3:06:01 you don’t get a nuclear program that is capable of
    3:06:04 developing nuclear weapons our gold standard is
    3:06:07 the american standard civilian nuclear energy
    3:06:10 like 23 countries no enrichment and reprocess we
    3:06:12 should be consistent we should be consistent not
    3:06:14 just with american allies but also very clear with
    3:06:16 american enemies i think that’s the third
    3:06:19 important thing we do fourth is i think it’s
    3:06:23 really important that we find some kind of
    3:06:26 accommodation between the israelis and the
    3:06:29 palestinians we can go down many rabbit holes on
    3:06:32 that but i think that lays the predicate for a
    3:06:35 saudi israeli normalization deal that then brings in
    3:06:39 multiple arab countries and muslim countries and
    3:06:42 finally is we talked about the abraham
    3:06:44 accords i i think we need to start thinking about
    3:06:47 what are the cyrus accords look like right cyrus was
    3:06:50 the great persian king right who by the way brought the you
    3:06:55 know the jews back from um from the diaspora to jerusalem and
    3:07:00 cyrus accords would be let’s find an agreement between the united states and
    3:07:05 israel and iran that would be a remarkable transformation in the region if we
    3:07:08 could actually do that so imagine a middle east and again i know this sounds
    3:07:12 fanciful but i think this is what trump has in mind when he starts to talk
    3:07:15 about the things you’re seeing in these truth posts is actually a middle east that
    3:07:19 can be fundamentally transformed where we actually do bring peace
    3:07:25 between israel iran saudi arabia and the rest of these countries i by the way
    3:07:31 completely agree with you on syria the idea that we are trusting a former
    3:07:36 al-qaeda isis jihadist uh to rule syria i think is a big bet
    3:07:40 president trump has made he’s made it on the advice of mbs
    3:07:46 we’ll see how that transforms uh or transpires and see if syria is transformed
    3:07:50 but the notion that somehow we should just be rolling the dice lifting all the
    3:07:57 sanctions and taking this former al-qaeda jihadist at his word is uh a big bet
    3:08:00 if we get the bet right that is actually a remarkable
    3:08:04 occurrence because now all of a sudden syria and lebanon are brought into
    3:08:09 this abraham accord cyrus accords structure and then we actually have what
    3:08:13 i think that all three of us want is peace in the middle east stability in the
    3:08:17 middle east i don’t think we need democracy in the middle east i think if the
    3:08:20 middle east looked like the uae that’d be a pretty good middle east i think we’d
    3:08:24 all be pretty comfortable with that if that kind of stability and prosperity
    3:08:28 and ultimately you could put these countries on a pathway to greater democracy
    3:08:33 the way that we did during the cold war where countries like taiwan and south
    3:08:37 korea that were military dictatorships end up becoming pro-western democracy so
    3:08:42 that’s kind of stepping back maybe a little bit pollyannish but i think we
    3:08:45 should also always keep in mind what a potential vision for peace could look
    3:08:52 right so scott as many people know here in austin texas you’re the director of
    3:08:56 the libertarian institute um let’s zoom out a bit what are the key
    3:09:01 pillars of libertarianism and how that informs how you see the world
    3:09:09 well the very basis of libertarianism is the non-aggression principle but uh which
    3:09:12 essentially is the same thing as our our social rules for dealing with each other
    3:09:18 in private life no force no theft no fraud and keep your hands to yourself and we
    3:09:23 apply that same moral law to government and so you know some libertarians are
    3:09:28 anarcho-capitalists some are uh so-called minarchists meaning we want the absolute
    3:09:33 minimum amount of government a night watchman type state uh and in other words
    3:09:38 just enough to enforce contracts and protect property rights and allow freedom and a
    3:09:44 free market to work there’s also of course natural rights theory austrian school economics and a lot
    3:09:53 of revisionist history um and uh and it something very uh key to uh libertarian theory was is
    3:09:58 expressed by murray and rothbard was that war is the key to the whole libertarian business
    3:10:02 because especially in the united states of america as long as we maintain a world empire
    3:10:07 makes it impossible for us to have a limited and decentralized government here at home as our
    3:10:12 constitution describes and so i was going to crack a joke but neither of you have called me an
    3:10:17 isolationist yet but i was going to joke that yes as as thomas jefferson wrote in the declaration of
    3:10:23 isolation um the same guy a principal author of the declaration of isolation he said in his first
    3:10:28 inaugural address we seek peace commerce and honest friendship with all nations and entangling
    3:10:33 alliances with none and that’s the true libertarian philosophy think dr ron paul the great congressman
    3:10:39 uh for many years up there he was opposed to all sanctions all economic war on the rest of the world
    3:10:47 and the entire state of the united states as world empire and what’s strange now is that anyone who
    3:10:55 wants just peace as the standard is considered an isolationist and people who are for world empire
    3:11:00 and a permanent state of conflict with the rest of the world economic war coups and regime changes and
    3:11:06 even invasions those are considered normal people it’s almost like people who want peace should be
    3:11:12 called cis foreign policy because now we gotta we have to come up with a funny word to describe a
    3:11:19 normal state of being when no one calls mexico an isolationist state just because they mind their own
    3:11:26 business and is there any faction anywhere in america that calls themselves isolationist even the paleo
    3:11:32 conservatives who favor much more like trade protectionism and that kind of thing than libertarians
    3:11:37 they don’t call themselves isolationists they still want to have an open relationship with the world
    3:11:43 to some degree when isolation means like the hermit kingdom of north korea or some crazy thing like
    3:11:49 that no one wants that for the united states of america what we want is independence non-interventionism
    3:11:55 and peace so to you isolationism is a kind of dirty word that’s right it’s a smear term invented by
    3:12:00 interventionists and internationalists to attack anyone who didn’t want to go along with their agenda
    3:12:06 the term itself is used essentially as a smear against anyone who doesn’t want to go to war
    3:12:13 so can you actually just deeper describe what non-interventionism means so how much sort of
    3:12:18 display of military strength should be there do you think dr paul said we could defend this country
    3:12:24 with a couple of good submarines which by the way for people who don’t know one american trident sub
    3:12:31 could essentially kill every city and military base in russia just one so he’s absolutely right about
    3:12:36 that couple of good submarines are enough to defend our coast and deter anyone from messing with the
    3:12:42 united states of america and then i admit i’m a little bit idealistic about this that i think of
    3:12:49 that old william jennings bryan speech behold a republic where unlike the empires of europe burdened
    3:12:56 under the weight of militarism here we have a free country and where you know what we could do
    3:13:02 we could be the host of peace conferences everywhere there are frozen conflicts in the
    3:13:10 conflicts in the donbass in kaliningrad in transnistria in taiwan in korea um virtually all the borders of africa
    3:13:17 and eurasia were drawn by european powers to either divide and conquer their enemies or artificially group
    3:13:22 their enemies together in order to keep them internally divided and conquered in those ways so
    3:13:28 there are a great many borders in the world that are in contention and that people might even want
    3:13:34 to fight about and i think that america could play a wonderful role in helping to negotiate and resolve
    3:13:40 those types of conflicts without resorting to force or or even making any promises on the part of the u.s
    3:13:44 government like we’ll pay egypt to pretend to be nice to israel or anything like that but just
    3:13:50 find ways to host conferences and and find resolutions to these problems and i think quite
    3:13:56 sincerely that donald trump right now could get on a plane to tehran he could then go to moscow
    3:14:03 to beijing and pyongyang and he could come home and be trump the great we in fact don’t have to have
    3:14:10 the especially the american hyper power as the french called it the world empire we have everything to give
    3:14:15 nothing to lose to go ahead and donald trump even talked like this you might remember when he first
    3:14:20 was sworn in this time he said you know what instead of pivoting from terrorism to great power competition
    3:14:26 with russia and china i don’t want to do that i just want to get along with both of them let’s just move
    3:14:31 on and have the rest of the century be peace and prosperity and not fighting at all why should we have
    3:14:38 to pivot to china let’s just pivot to capitalism and trade and freedom and peace that’s america first
    3:14:44 yeah i’ve uh i’ve criticized trump a lot but i think maybe he’s just rhetoric but i think he talks about
    3:14:49 peace a lot even just recently the the number of times the word peace is mentioned and with seriousness
    3:14:58 not you get like a genuine desire for peace from him and that’s just beautiful to see for the leader of
    3:15:03 of this country and look man there used to be a time when a third of the planet was dominated by
    3:15:08 the communists right so like i’m not gonna sit here and argue the first cold war with you my book’s
    3:15:14 about the second one and i’m not as good on the first but since the end of the first cold war we have let
    3:15:22 the neoconservative policy of the defense plan and guidance of 92 and rebuilding america’s defenses and
    3:15:31 the rest of this american uh dominance centered policy uh control our entire direction in the world
    3:15:35 it’s led to the war on terrorism in the middle east seven countries we’ve attacked it’s led to the
    3:15:42 disaster in eastern europe and it’s leading toward disaster in eastern asia when there’s just no reason
    3:15:48 in the world that it has to be this way with the commies dead and gone and again i to stipulate here
    3:15:53 the chinese flag is still red it’s still a one-party dictatorship but they have abandoned
    3:15:58 marxism i mean people were starving to death by the tens of millions there it’s a huge it’s probably
    3:16:03 the greatest improvement in the condition of mankind anywhere ever in the shortest amount of time
    3:16:07 when deng Xiaoping and the right wing of the communist party took over in that country
    3:16:12 just one more thing you mentioned the two submarines what’s the role of nuclear weapons
    3:16:19 well i would like for america to have an extremely minimal nuclear deterrent and work toward a world
    3:16:25 free of nuclear weapons and i know that that sounds utopian however i would remind your audience that
    3:16:31 ronald reagan and mikhail gorbachev came within a hair of achieving a deal just like that at reikovic
    3:16:40 iceland in 1986 and they were both of them dead serious about it complete and total nuclear disarmament
    3:16:46 and then reagan was essentially bullied by richard pearl and others on his staff saying you promised
    3:16:51 the american people that you would build them a defensive anti-missile system the star wars system
    3:16:57 which was total pie in the sky technological fantasy of the 1980s and if you’re getting rid of
    3:17:02 all the icbms then why the hell do you need a missile shield anyway it was the world’s probably
    3:17:07 greatest tragedy that ever took place that ronald reagan walked away from those negotiations they
    3:17:15 literally were within a hair and it wasn’t magic and there was no trust in evil bad guys this is by the
    3:17:21 way two years before the wall came down this is when everybody still thought the ussr was gonna last
    3:17:28 and reagan had the plan was that america and the soviet union would dismantle our nuclear weapons
    3:17:32 until we were right around with parity with the other nuclear weapon states who all have right around
    3:17:38 two or three hundred nukes france britain at that time israel and china indian pakistan came later south
    3:17:43 africa only had a few then but gave up whatever they had and the idea was we would get down to two or
    3:17:48 three hundred and then america and the soviet union both together would lean hard on britain france and
    3:17:54 china let’s all get down to 100 let’s all see if we can get down to 50 etc like that in stages again
    3:18:00 ronald reagan we’re talking about here trust but verify means do not trust at all it means be polite
    3:18:07 while you verify and in fact america did help dismantle upwards of 60 something thousand soviet
    3:18:14 nuclear missiles in the after the end of the cold war and so it is possible to live in a world where at the
    3:18:19 very least we have a situation where the major powers have a few nukes
    3:18:25 and potentially can even come to an arrangement to get rid of the rest
    3:18:28 we should also just say one more thing not to be ageist
    3:18:31 but most of the major leaders
    3:18:32 with nukes
    3:18:34 and those with power in the world
    3:18:36 are in their 70s and 80s
    3:18:40 i don’t know if that contributes to it but they kind of are grounded in a different time
    3:18:48 that may i have a hope for the fresher younger leaders to have a more optimistic view towards peace
    3:18:50 and to be able to reach towards peace
    3:18:54 and underlying so much of what we’re talking about here is all this enmity right
    3:18:59 but if america could just work remember when china cut that pseudo sort of peace deal between
    3:19:02 saudi and iran a couple years ago or last year was it
    3:19:04 we could try to double up on that
    3:19:07 we should we could try to come up with ways for
    3:19:09 saudi and iran to exchange as much as possible
    3:19:11 you know um
    3:19:14 i know you don’t like all the going back too far in history
    3:19:15 but it’s important it’s in my book that
    3:19:16 in 1993
    3:19:20 zbignan brzezinski who the revolution had happened on his watch
    3:19:24 operation eagle claw the disaster of the rescue mission in 79
    3:19:28 after the hostage crisis and everything all that egg was on zb’s face
    3:19:32 but in 93 he said we should normalize relations
    3:19:35 we should build an oil pipeline across iran
    3:19:36 so they can make money we can make money
    3:19:38 and we can start to normalize
    3:19:42 and ronald reagan’s secretary of state alexander haig
    3:19:45 who had been kissinger’s right-hand man agreed
    3:19:47 they both were trying to push that
    3:19:50 but the clinton administration went ahead with martin indyk
    3:19:55 who had been yitzhak shamir’s man and inaugurated the dual containment policy
    3:19:57 instead because the israelis were concerned
    3:20:00 that america had just beaten up on iraq so bad in iraq war one
    3:20:03 that now iraq wasn’t powerful enough to balance against iran
    3:20:07 so america had to stay in saudi to balance against them both
    3:20:09 and that was the origin of the dual containment policy
    3:20:11 it was martin indyk who had been yitzhak shamir’s man
    3:20:13 who pushed it on clinton
    3:20:15 and this was not the israelis
    3:20:17 it was the kuwaitis who lied
    3:20:22 that there was a truck bomb attempt assassination against h.w. bush
    3:20:24 which was a total hoax
    3:20:26 it was debunked by seymour hirsch by the end of the year
    3:20:28 it was just a whiskey smuggling ring
    3:20:31 and it was the same guy whose daughter had claimed to have seen
    3:20:34 the iraqi soldiers throw the babies out of the incubators
    3:20:36 he was the guy who two years later
    3:20:41 made up this hoax about saddam hussein trying to murder bush senior
    3:20:44 but when he did that was when bill clinton finally gave in
    3:20:47 and adopted the dual containment policy because he had been interested in
    3:20:51 potentially reaching out to saddam and the ayatollah both at that time
    3:20:53 but instead of having normalization with both
    3:20:57 we had to have permanent cold war through the end of the century with both
    3:21:00 and my argument is simply it just didn’t have to be that way
    3:21:01 it’s the same thing with russia
    3:21:05 look at you know how determined the democrats especially
    3:21:07 are to have this conflict with russia
    3:21:08 where to donald trump
    3:21:09 nah not at all
    3:21:10 we could get along with them
    3:21:13 and so it’s perfectly within reason
    3:21:15 if the big nebrzezinski says we can talk with iran
    3:21:17 and get along with iran
    3:21:19 and donald trump says we can get along with russia
    3:21:21 then the same thing for north korea
    3:21:23 the same thing for china
    3:21:26 and then and then who do we have left to fight
    3:21:30 hezbollah hezbollah is nothing without iran
    3:21:32 we’ll just have scott and i fighting
    3:21:33 that’s that’ll be the last remaining
    3:21:34 that’s a fun kind of fight
    3:21:35 that’ll be fun
    3:21:36 okay mark peaceful
    3:21:41 you’re the ceo of fdd the foundation for defense of democracies
    3:21:47 it’s a dc-based organization that focuses on national security and foreign policy
    3:21:53 what has been your approach to solving some of these problems of the world
    3:21:57 so look i love the vision that scott painted
    3:22:01 um and i i agree with some of the libertarian instincts that he has
    3:22:06 but my view is that america is the indispensable power
    3:22:10 um scott mentioned earlier in the conversation about the rules-based order
    3:22:15 that is so important and the npt and all these rules-based agreements that are important
    3:22:22 to maintain well the rules-based order has been maintained by the united states since world war ii
    3:22:24 right there is no american prosperity
    3:22:29 to the degree that we have there’s no recovery of europe there’s no recovery of asia after the
    3:22:35 devastation of world war ii without american power and the rules-based order that america has
    3:22:39 led and backstopped and i think america first
    3:22:45 is about american power and deterrence i think if you want to avoid war
    3:22:51 i think you cannot just believe in some fantasy where all the world’s leaders are going to get
    3:22:55 together in some place and are just going to agree to disarm all their nuclear weapons
    3:23:01 and we’ll disarm our entire military and we’ll have one submarine off our coast
    3:23:05 and some all of that is going to lead to peace i mean i think what has led to peace
    3:23:13 in the past has been the american ford deterrence of our military and a belief that our enemies
    3:23:18 think we will credibly use it i think if they believe we’ll credibly use it
    3:23:22 then it’s less likely they will challenge us and if they’re less likely to challenge us
    3:23:25 and challenge our allies there’s less likely to be war
    3:23:32 so for me deterrence leads to peace and any kind of unilateral disarmament
    3:23:40 any kind of i think sort of fanciful notion that somehow their our enemies are going to
    3:23:47 respect the non-aggression principle that is the core fundamental underpinnings of libertarianism
    3:23:52 which i think in in a personal relationship i think is very important but remember these are
    3:23:57 aggressors they don’t respect the non-aggression principle i think we can spend a lot of time we did
    3:24:04 over how many hours now has it been talking about the fact that in scott’s view of the world it’s
    3:24:08 america that provokes it’s america that provokes and then it’s not america provoking it’s israel
    3:24:15 provoking and oh by the way america provokes because we’re being seduced or paid or browbeaten by those
    3:24:21 those israelis and you know those jews in america i mean i think that whole notion that somehow we
    3:24:29 we are we are the provocative force in global politics i think is is wrong i think the fact of
    3:24:36 the matter is we make mistakes we are an imperfect nation we have made some serious sometimes catastrophic
    3:24:44 mistakes but there is a bad world out there there are evil men who want to do us harm and we have to
    3:24:50 prevent away prevent them from doing us harm and to do that we need an american military that is serious
    3:24:55 and well supported we don’t need a military industrial complex that ultimately is going to
    3:25:00 pull us into wars we need thoughtful leaders like president trump who will resist that and will say
    3:25:07 at the end of the day i will use force when it is selective narrow overwhelming and deadly and that was
    3:25:15 trump’s operation just a few days ago he he went after three key facilities that were being used to develop
    3:25:22 the capability for nuclear weapons nuclear weapons are the greatest danger to humanity i totally agree with
    3:25:28 scott like i think a world without nuclear weapons the kind of world that that reagan envisioned and
    3:25:33 others have envisioned since is really the only way we can eliminate the most devastating weapons that
    3:25:40 could end humankind but we have to make sure that those weapons don’t end up in the hands of regimes
    3:25:46 that seek to do us harm and that have have done us harm over over many many decades so yeah i mean
    3:25:53 deterrence peace through strength rules-based order the foundation for defense of democracies is not the
    3:25:58 foundation for promotion of democracy we don’t believe in this important concept that we have to promote
    3:26:03 democracy around the world i’ll speak for myself because we have many people at my think tank we’re 105 people
    3:26:08 we have different views i don’t personally believe that it is the role of the united states to bring
    3:26:13 democracy to the middle east or democracy around the world i think to the extent we’ve tried we failed i’m
    3:26:18 not sure the middle east is ready for democracy now iran is interesting because it’s not an arab country
    3:26:25 right it is a it is a different country altogether culturally it’s a very sophisticated country it has a long
    3:26:32 history it actually has a history where it has had democracy in the past it is a country that i think
    3:26:37 can have incredible potential under the right leadership and under the right circumstances i don’t know if
    3:26:43 the right circumstances are a constitutional monarchy with reza palavi as the as the as the as the crown
    3:26:48 prince or the shah i don’t know whether it’s a secular democracy or not let let let iranians make that
    3:26:53 decision i’ve been pronouncing it wrong this whole time reza palavi you know the guy i met him yeah
    3:26:59 yeah yeah olivi palavi what were you saying i thought it was palavi oh wow yeah no it’s okay
    3:27:08 it’s okay you know that’s the only thing you’ve ever gotten wrong pronouncing so many things
    3:27:13 correctly i think people will give you a pass can i ask you though like i mean all this militarization
    3:27:23 has led to a state of permanent war we’ve been bombing iraq for 34 years we uh launched we put uh a war
    3:27:28 against the taliban who didn’t attack us instead of al-qaeda who did fought for 20 years and the
    3:27:33 taliban won anyway we overthrew a launched an aggressive war against saddam hussein put the
    3:27:38 ayatollah’s best friends in power we launched an aggressive war against libya on this ridiculous hoax
    3:27:44 that qaddafi was about to murder every last man woman and child in benghazi imagine charlotte north
    3:27:50 carolina being wiped off the map barack obama lied in order to start that war and completely destroyed
    3:27:55 libya it’s now three pieces in a state of semi-permanent civil war including and this wasn’t
    3:28:00 just back then this is to this day the re-legalization and re-institutionalization of chattel
    3:28:07 slavery of sub-saharan black africans in libya to this day as a result the our intervention this was
    3:28:14 not a direct overt war but america israel saudi qatar and turkey all back to bin ladenites in syria
    3:28:18 completely destroyed syria to the point where the caliphate grew up and then we had to launch
    3:28:24 iraq war three to destroy the caliphate again and so i’m i’m not seeing the peace through strength i’m
    3:28:29 seeing permanent militarism and permanent war through strength point well made he’s speaking to the the
    3:28:36 double-edged sword of a strong military that what you mentioned that trump did seems like a very
    3:28:43 difficult thing to do which is keep it hit hard and keep it short we don’t know how this ended yet
    3:28:52 but even the beginning part is not trivial to do like just hitting one mission and vocalizing
    3:29:01 except for one post uh no regime change like really pushing peace make a deal cease fire like that’s
    3:29:07 i that’s an uncommon way to operate so i guess you said that we should resist the military industrial
    3:29:13 complex that’s not easy to do that that that’s the double-edged sword of a strong military let me say
    3:29:17 real quick and i promise i can i i’m gonna say one thing and then i’ll stop you made a point then i just
    3:29:23 i just want to add it’s a really important point okay is grassroots effort there is no houthi lobby in
    3:29:30 america okay it was grassroots efforts by libertarians quakers and leftists to get war powers
    3:29:35 resolutions introduced in trump’s first term to stop the war in yemen which was launched not for
    3:29:42 israel for saudi arabia and uae by barack obama in 2015 that’s not a first afghan war wasn’t about
    3:29:51 israel either okay but this yemen war was i thought 9-11 was about israel well it was in great part but
    3:29:56 the af the decision to sack kabul and do a regime change and all that had nothing to do with the
    3:30:01 lakut whatsoever other than well we got to keep the war going long enough to go to baghdad okay so
    3:30:05 it was his real fault i was in the middle of saying about the war in yemen that we got the war powers
    3:30:13 resolution through twice and trump vetoed it twice and his man pete navarro explained to the new york times
    3:30:20 that this was just welfare for american industry a lot of industrialists were angry about the tariffs
    3:30:26 disrupting trade with china and somehow they substituted raytheon for all american industry
    3:30:32 somehow and said industry will be happy if we funnel a lot of money to raytheon that’s pete navarro
    3:30:37 talking to the new york times about why they continued the war in yemen throughout trump’s entire first term
    3:30:41 he had no interest in it at all the whole thing was this it was obama’s fault the whole thing was
    3:30:45 essentially on autopilot and what was he doing he’s flying as al-qaeda’s air force
    3:30:51 against the houthis who originally if you go back to january of 2015 america was passing intelligence
    3:30:55 to the houthis to use to kill al-qaeda you know aqap the guys that tried to blow up the plane over
    3:31:00 detroit with the underpants bomb on christmas day 2009 that did all those horrific massacres in europe
    3:31:06 real ass bin ladnite terrorists the houthis were our allies against them before barack obama stabbed
    3:31:10 them in the back and why did trump keep that going when he inherited that horrific war
    3:31:16 from barack obama why did he do it according to his trade guy so that they could keep funneling
    3:31:22 american taxed and inflated dollars into the pocketbooks of stockholders of raytheon incorporated
    3:31:27 right military industrial complex the point was made yeah maybe i could respond to that because i mean
    3:31:32 again it’s always america’s fault according to scott take a jab at you no no but it’s dowdy and uae
    3:31:37 asked barack obama for permission to start that war and for american help in prosecuting it and he said
    3:31:42 yes and help i’m going to segue into an answer because i i think it deserves an answer a military
    3:31:47 industrial complex is a serious concern um because i think you’re right it there you know the bigger it
    3:31:52 gets um and the more weapons you have you think the more the greater the temptation to use it right i
    3:31:57 think that’s sort of the the argument and then there’s also self-enrichment and how much money can
    3:32:03 be made and in all of that i think is of serious concern to people look i think trump is somebody who
    3:32:11 it’s hard pressed to say that donald trump um is a great advocate of the military industrial complex
    3:32:17 or that he is he is in their pocket the same way that he’s in the pocket of the israelis and in the
    3:32:21 pocket of the saudis and in the pocket of everybody i mean i think the one thing with trump is that trump
    3:32:28 has he has learned the lessons of american engagement over the past few decades and i think scott’s done a good
    3:32:33 job of kind of laying out the mistakes that have been made even though you know we can discuss about
    3:32:38 causal connections and who’s responsible and you know i i lean on and we i want to well scott can i
    3:32:44 finish because you know your your causal connection is always it’s america aggressing israel aggressing
    3:32:49 and all these poor people responding to us um but nonetheless i think trump has he’s learned the
    3:32:55 lessons but he hasn’t over learned the lessons he he’s not paralyzed by iraq or afghanistan or the
    3:33:00 mistakes made by his predecessors he understands that at the end of the day we need serious american
    3:33:06 power we need lethal power we need four deterrents and he’s been very careful and very selective about
    3:33:11 how he uses american power i mean we’ve talked about it throughout this whole conversation trump used
    3:33:17 american power to kill qasem soleimani the one of the world’s most dangerous terrorists he killed
    3:33:23 baghdadi the head of isis one of the world’s most dangerous terrorists he he refrained from going after
    3:33:28 after the iranian takedown of our drone he refrained from when the iranians
    3:33:34 fired on saudi aramco and took off 20 of our oil right he’s been very very selective about the use of
    3:33:41 american power he did go after the houthis who are iran backed and we’re using iranian missiles to go
    3:33:46 after our ship that’s not true those are north korean missiles completely debunked by jane’s defense
    3:33:51 weekly nice try yeah nice try um anyway everybody knows that the iranians have been financing the houthis
    3:33:56 hezbollah has been training the houthis and iran has given capabilities to the houthis to develop
    3:34:03 their own indigenous missile capability the fact of the matter is he he did in a way go after the houthis
    3:34:10 much more intensively than biden did in order to prevent them from continuing to shut down
    3:34:17 red sea shipping on which both america and our allies depend as a trade route he actually did it quite
    3:34:22 successfully because after a few days of pretty intensive bombing the houthis got the message
    3:34:26 and they cut a deal with donald trump they’re not going to interfere with our shift anymore he got a
    3:34:30 deal with them they kept bombing israel which is what got him involved in the first place he completely
    3:34:34 backed out sounds to me like they won and he backed down well it sounds it sounds like he in terms of
    3:34:38 promoting american international security interests it sounds like he did he did a pretty good job of
    3:34:43 sending a message to the houthis and the iranians don’t mess with the united states and that gets us to the
    3:34:54 reality he took a decision one day on one day to send our b2s and our subs in order to do severe
    3:34:59 damage to three nuclear facilities it was a one-day campaign it was selective it was narrow it was
    3:35:05 overwhelming and i think it sends a message to khamenei i think it sends a message to regimes around
    3:35:10 the world anti-american regimes around the world that donald trump has not over learned the lessons of
    3:35:18 the past 20 years right but that in fact he is not going to dismantle the u.s military and dismantle
    3:35:24 our nuclear program and fly around to all these cities and call peace conferences and hope that these
    3:35:29 dictators will just sit down with america and say you know what all is forgiven the united states of
    3:35:36 america it’s all your fault you did this all we we admit our responsibility and then we have we have
    3:35:45 peace and paradise and earth i think trump is much more um pragmatic and in some respects cynical when
    3:35:50 he looks at the world and he realizes the world is a dangerous place i have to be very careful about
    3:35:55 how i use american military forces i am not going to send hundreds of thousands of people around the
    3:36:01 world by the way i mean it all talk about israel i mean the israelis are one of the best allies we could
    3:36:07 possibly have they fight and they die in their own defense they fought multiple wars against american
    3:36:11 enemies they haven’t asked for american troops on the ground there are no boots on the ground
    3:36:17 in israel defending israel the best we’ve given them is we’ve given them a fad system to help them shoot
    3:36:22 down ballistic missiles that have aimed at aimed at them and our american pilots have been in the air
    3:36:29 recently with our israeli friends shooting down ballistic missiles but the israelis have had an a warrior
    3:36:33 ethos we will fight and we will die in our own defense i would just say if you’re going to actually
    3:36:39 build out a model where you’re going to minimize the risk to american troops let’s find more allies
    3:36:46 like that right i worry about i’m like scott i really worry about china taiwan i really really worry about
    3:36:51 that because the taiwanese are not capable of defending themselves without u.s assistance and the
    3:36:56 and we may have to send american men and women to go defend taiwan and we can have a whole debate about
    3:37:00 the wisdom of that but again it would be very very helpful to have more israels in the world
    3:37:06 more countries that are capable of fighting against common enemies and against common threats without
    3:37:12 having to always put american boots on the ground in order to do that so you made a case for if it’s okay
    3:37:19 if you made a case for strength here just practically speaking why do you think trump has talked about
    3:37:26 peace a lot why do you think he hasn’t been able to uh uh get to a ceasefire with ukraine and russia for
    3:37:31 example if we just move away from iran yeah without getting into the history of the whole thing like
    3:37:36 why he’s been talking peace peace peace peace peace he’s been pushing it and pushing it what can we learn
    3:37:43 about that so far failure that’s also instructive for iran look i’m not a russia expert i’m not a ukraine
    3:37:48 expert i’m sitting in front of two uh people who know a lot more about that conflict than i do i i you
    3:37:56 are we should say banned by putin i am i have been sanctioned by russia and by iran um i sanctioned yes
    3:38:01 yes banned sanctioned uh threat congratulations thank you thank you well it’s it causes some
    3:38:10 difficulties but anyway um i think the answer to that is that for putin he needs to understand that
    3:38:17 like khamenei he has two options here right option one which president trump has signaled over and over
    3:38:23 and over again is come sit down and negotiate a ceasefire with the ukrainians i don’t want to get into
    3:38:27 the details and the back and forth about who’s responsible for the fact there’s no ceasefire
    3:38:31 putin or zelensky i mean that’s a whole other debate and i’m sure you guys have a lot of opinions on that
    3:38:39 um but path one is sit down and let’s negotiate a ceasefire path two is the united states will use
    3:38:46 american power in order to build our leverage so that vladimir putin understands that he has to
    3:38:52 do a ceasefire now i’m not suggesting u.s troops absolutely not right what i am suggesting is
    3:38:57 there’s a package right now of sanctions that have 88 co-sponsors in the senate across party lines
    3:39:03 and i think trump is using that and will use that as a sort of sword of damocles hanging over
    3:39:09 putin and the russian economy to say look vladimir we either do a ceasefire or i’m going to have no
    3:39:14 choice but to have to start imposing much more punishing sanctions on you and on the russian economy
    3:39:19 so i think there’s an economic option i think there’s a military option and i think the biggest
    3:39:25 mistake biden made in this whole war and there’s many mistakes uh in terms of signaling not having u.s
    3:39:31 credibility you know afghan debacle which signaled to putin that he could invade without any kind of
    3:39:38 american response is he kind of went in and he tied ukraine’s uh hands behind their back i mean he
    3:39:42 actually tied one hand behind their back while they were fighting with the other hand and he refused to
    3:39:48 give him the kinds of systems that early on in the war would have allowed the ukrainian military
    3:39:52 to be able to hit russian forces that were mobilizing on the russian ukrainian border
    3:39:56 and i think if he had done that i think this war would have ended sooner there’d be far
    3:40:04 less casualties and i think putin would then understand maybe i need to strike a deal i’m not
    3:40:09 a russia expert or ukraine expert i don’t know what the deal looks like you keep the donbast you keep
    3:40:15 crimea you keep you know larger chunks of eastern ukraine that’s for smarter people than me on this
    3:40:20 issue to decide what the deal looks like but there’s no doubt today putin thinks that he can just
    3:40:25 keep fighting keep killing ukrainians keep driving forward eventually he’s going to wear down the
    3:40:29 ukrainians through a sheer war of attrition he’ll throw hundreds of thousands of russians at this he
    3:40:33 doesn’t care how many russians are going to die that’s the way the russians and the soviets have
    3:40:38 fought wars for many many years just endless number of russian bodies being thrown into the meat grinder
    3:40:43 and he thinks he can continue without any consequences i worry that as a result of the
    3:40:51 fact that we are not showing putin and we’ve got leverage it’s made warm more likely it’s made a war
    3:40:56 more brutal and it’s going to make a war more protracted but increasing military aid to ukraine
    3:41:01 in the case that you described also has to be coupled with extreme pressure to make peace
    3:41:07 correct extreme pressure to make peace which trump hopefully is appears to be doing now in iran
    3:41:12 i think trump is early i mean it’s interesting you said that because he’s early indicators
    3:41:17 again who knows where the ceasefire goes but i think it was important he he slapped
    3:41:25 khamenei but he also said to bb enough enough and it’s like okay now we’re going back to oman
    3:41:30 there’s going to be a temporary ceasefire now let’s negotiate and i think that’s important and i think it
    3:41:35 shows that donald trump is leading not following it shows that donald trump is his own man
    3:41:43 not on the payroll of the russians or the iranians or the israelis or all these other crazy accusations
    3:41:48 that have been made about this guy for many many years um and he’s going to give you know as they
    3:41:52 say peace a chance and he’s going to give give a ceasefire a chance he’s going to give negotiations
    3:41:56 a chance but i’ll think he’s sending the message to the iranians and he needs to send it to putin
    3:42:02 is if you don’t take me up on my offer all right i’ve already demonstrated that i am serious
    3:42:07 and i will use american power carefully and selectively in the way that i’ve done in the
    3:42:14 past at the risk of doing the thing i shouldn’t do but just to test the ideas of libertarianism
    3:42:21 and the things we’ve been talking about can we for a brief time unrelated to everything we’ve been
    3:42:28 talking about talk about world war ii what was the right thing to do in 1938 1939 like what would you
    3:42:37 do okay to be clear world war ii has nothing to do with current events in fact many of the horrible
    3:42:43 policies of the united states in my opinion have to have to do with projecting world war ii onto every
    3:42:49 single conflict in the world okay oh great but over learning over learning but it is an interesting
    3:42:55 extreme case just to clarify i’m just like philosophically talking about yeah at which
    3:43:03 point do you hit do you do military intervention and that’s a nice case maybe you have a better
    3:43:07 case study but that’s such an extreme one yeah that it’s interesting we’re talking about germany or
    3:43:14 japan germany said yeah so so japan attacked us and germany declared war on us tough for them and
    3:43:18 that’s what happens when you declare war on the united states you get hit but that was an idiotic
    3:43:22 on the part of hitler to declare war in the united states you know i never understood why he ever did
    3:43:25 that they always said it was just because he was crazy but what it was is he was trying to get the
    3:43:30 japanese to invade the soviet union from the east and in order to divide stalin’s forces which failed
    3:43:35 and it didn’t work and it was a huge blunder from his point of view i guess philosophically
    3:43:39 from an interventionism perspective you’re saying united states should have stayed out
    3:43:46 from that war as long as possible until they’re attacked yes i mean and look at how powerful
    3:43:50 they ended up being and the amount of damage that they were able to inflict on the soviets
    3:43:56 better than than us what do you think look is this a useful discussion it’s interesting i mean i think
    3:44:02 it’s interesting philosophically you know libertarianism um or or isolationism in practice i mean i think the
    3:44:07 30s are more interesting to me than what happened between 39 and 45 i think the debate in america
    3:44:14 was very interesting in the 30s um where there was really a strong uh isolationist movement um you
    3:44:21 know with charles lindbergh and and henry ford and father coughlin and many joe kennedy yeah and joe
    3:44:26 kennedy i mean they define themselves as sort of america firsters um but it was very much an isolationist
    3:44:30 strain and i think you know we can talk about that history and coughlin was a new dealer not a right
    3:44:36 winger anyway um very much an isolationist talking about america having to stay out these entangling
    3:44:41 alliances this is not our war emotionally understandable right because you can you can also overlearn the
    3:44:46 lessons of world war one right and i think they overlearned the lessons of world war one i mean which
    3:44:51 was a brutal war and a devastating war mostly for europe but obviously for the united states we we lost
    3:44:58 thousands of american men and women so the 30s was this big debate between the um those who saw the
    3:45:04 gathering storm of what was happening uh with nazi germany and those who wanted to keep america out
    3:45:11 and i think in some respects it’s like today with the contemporary reality with khamenei is that because
    3:45:18 these isolationist voices were so prominent and so vocal um and in some cases quite persuasive
    3:45:25 to american leaders hitler calculated that the united states would not enter the war and so he could
    3:45:32 do what scott says he could focus on the eastern front um he could gather his forces and then he
    3:45:36 could do a kill shot on the western democracies in western europe and the united states would not
    3:45:41 intervene i mean you’re right that the big mistake he makes is declaring war in the united states after
    3:45:48 pearl harbor but he believes all through the 30s and before pearl harbor that the isolationist voices
    3:45:55 are keeping fdr from entering the war even while churchill and the brits and the french and others
    3:46:01 are imploring the americans uh not only to just just to provide provide them with material support
    3:46:07 with weapons so that they could hold hold on to the island and and defend themselves and i think hitler
    3:46:12 hitler miscalculates in the same way i think khamenei miscalculates khamenei heard the debate
    3:46:17 over the past number of years he believed that this sort of isolationist wing
    3:46:23 of the republican party right represented i think in you know by tucker carlson and others who have been
    3:46:29 very anti-intervention with respect to iran i think he believed that that was the dominant voice within
    3:46:35 trump’s maga coalition and that as a result the united states would not use military force so in the same
    3:46:43 way that hitler miscalculated the influence of the isolationists on fdr khamenei misjudged the
    3:46:49 influence of the isolationists on trump and both ended up miscalculating to uh to their great regret
    3:46:55 so to me that’s the sort of parallel between kind of world war ii in the 30s and the prelude to world
    3:47:00 war ii and what we’re seeing in the in the current reality over the past few weeks to make clear you
    3:47:05 mentioned there’s a parallel but mostly there’s no parallel it’s a fundamentally different absolutely
    3:47:09 there will never be a war like that and i have a real problem too because they always say everybody’s
    3:47:14 hitler all enemies are hitler and to compromise with them at all is to appease hitler and you can
    3:47:20 never do that i agree and they do that to manuel noriega to david koresh to saddam hussein to whoever
    3:47:26 they feel like demonizing and saying it was unique too crazy to negotiate with when let’s get real
    3:47:33 and i think we’re agreed about this probably that right in 2002 w bush could have just sent colin
    3:47:38 powell the four-star general former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff secretary state to read the
    3:47:43 riot act to saddam hussein and tell him look man you help keep al-qaeda down and we’ll let you live
    3:47:49 and everything would have been fine and and in fact just like saddam hussein and there’s a great article
    3:47:56 i don’t agree hang on hang on there’s there’s an article by james rising in the new york times and
    3:48:01 there’s another one by seymour hirsch as well about how saddam hussein offered to give in on everything
    3:48:05 he said you want to search for weapons of mass destruction you can send your army and fbi everywhere
    3:48:09 you want you want us to switch sides in the israel-palestine conflict we’ll stop backing
    3:48:13 hamas you want us to hold elections we’ll hold this we’ll hold elections just give us a couple years
    3:48:17 if this is about the oil we’ll sign over mineral rights this is james rise in new york times
    3:48:22 they sent an emissary to meet with richard pearl in london that was who was the chair of the defense
    3:48:27 policy board and was a major ringleader of getting us into iraq war ii and then they i don’t know why
    3:48:31 this is a real mistake you want to talk about saddam’s mistakes why does he always send his guys to meet
    3:48:37 with richard pearl because the there was a saudi businessman pardon me a lebanese businessman i think
    3:48:43 that they tried to get to intervene as well who again offered virtually total capitulation and pearl
    3:48:50 told him tell saddam we’ll see you in baghdad after he was attempting to essentially unconditionally
    3:48:54 surrender the same thing happened with iran in 2003 right after america invaded they issue what was
    3:49:00 called the golden offer which the bush administration buried and they castigated the swiss ambassador who
    3:49:05 had delivered it but in the golden offer and you can find the pdf file of it online they talk about
    3:49:10 we’re happy to negotiate with you our entire nuclear program which didn’t even really exist yet
    3:49:17 but nuclearization we’re to willing to negotiate with you about afghanistan and iraq because again
    3:49:21 they hated saddam hussein and wanted rid of him too so they’re perfectly happy to work with us on
    3:49:26 afghanistan and iraq and they had captured a bunch of bin ladenites and they were willing to trade them
    3:49:33 for the mek and that included one of bin laden’s sons and another guy named atef both of whom the
    3:49:38 iranians held under house arrest for years and it was only in the i think late and they’re giving
    3:49:45 refuge to al-qaeda and the cia said this is a key facilitation pipeline between iran and al-qaeda
    3:49:51 they were willing to negotiate a trade between these dangerous bin ladenites and the mek and america
    3:49:58 refused to negotiate that and it was years later when the bin ladenites abducted some iranian diplomats
    3:50:04 in pakistan that they then traded them away to get their diplomats back and atef i think bin laden’s
    3:50:10 son ended up being killed not long after that hamsa but and and atef too but both of those dangerous terrorists
    3:50:17 were released and were involved in terrorism between then them then and the time that they were later killed
    3:50:21 i think within a couple of years of that so the hawks always like to say oh yeah iran gives such
    3:50:26 aid and comfort to al-qaeda and all that there’s a great document at the counterterrorism center at
    3:50:31 west point where they debunk all of that yeah there’s a 9-11 report by the 9-11 commission
    3:50:37 there’s a 9-11 commission report people can google it which talks about the cooperation between iran
    3:50:44 and al-qaeda only in bosnia when they were doing a favor for bill clinton beyond that and cia released
    3:50:51 thousands of pages of classified material that they declassified showing the relationship between iran and al-qaeda
    3:50:58 the u.s treasury department under obama and under trump actually designated a number of iranian
    3:51:04 individuals for facilitating al-qaeda so anyway i mean these these are important facts but i actually
    3:51:09 mentioned baghdadian soleimani in the same breath a minute ago when they’re deadly enemies and it was
    3:51:13 soleimani’s shiite forces in iraq war three that helped destroy the caliphate is my friend
    3:51:18 with america flying air power for the greatest era that we’ve made in the middle east there’s this notion
    3:51:23 not the greatest but one of the greatest is this sort of conceptual era that somehow sunnis and
    3:51:29 shiais don’t work together and iran doesn’t work with al-qaeda i’m not saying you say that but but many
    3:51:33 people think that and of course they do work they hate each other but of course they work together
    3:51:36 because they hate us more but can i just say something lex because i actually think just stepping
    3:51:41 back from like all of this detail the more we start to zoom out now the better yeah i’d like to zoom
    3:51:47 out a little bit i look i think the lessons for me um over 22 years i’m working on these issues is
    3:51:53 one must learn about the mistakes that we’ve made in iraq and in afghanistan and libya okay one must
    3:51:58 learn about the mistakes that we made in vietnam mistakes that we made in world war ii so we can make
    3:52:04 them all over again and run this time can i finish or go ahead are you good yeah i’m ready all right
    3:52:12 so um i think that what what president trump is trying to do is learn but not overlearn right i think he
    3:52:18 understands the mistakes that have been made i think he’s trying to rectify those mistakes and he also
    3:52:25 understands that american power is important it is been a it is a force for good in the world even though
    3:52:31 we have made major mistakes i think there’s a great danger amongst certain people to believe that
    3:52:38 no power should ever be exercised that all american power is a bad thing and a destructive thing and
    3:52:43 sometimes to confuse major tactical decisions right that have been made whether it’s been made by
    3:52:51 the brits in world war ii or the americans or us or whoever it is in whatever war with the fact that
    3:52:55 there is a strategic reality that we always have to be conscious about and that we have enemies
    3:53:01 right this is not the garden of eden yet i hope the libertarians create one i want to go live there
    3:53:06 when they do and scott and i will be neighbors believe it or not living living in that garden of eden
    3:53:14 together but there are major threats in this world and we need to find the right balance between the
    3:53:18 overuse of military power and the underuse of military power if we want to avoid wars we have to
    3:53:24 serious deterrence because our enemies need to understand we will use selective and narrowly
    3:53:31 focused overwhelming military power when we are facing threats like an iranian nuclear weapon that
    3:53:36 is a serious threat it’s a serious threat to us it’s a serious threat to the region it’s a serious threat
    3:53:41 with respect to proliferation around the world and i think with that respect i think president trump’s
    3:53:51 decision to drop bombs on three key nuclear facilities was a selective targeted military action that i hope
    3:53:57 will drive the iranians back to the negotiating table where they can negotiate finally the dismantlement of
    3:54:02 their nuclear weapons program right i think there’s a danger weapons again again we’ve had a four-hour
    3:54:05 debate on this so i’m sure if you want to rewind you can listen to all our arguments once again
    3:54:13 um but the fact of the matter is is that the our unwillingness to use power if we’re never going to
    3:54:19 use power all that’s going to do is send a signal to our enemies that they can do whatever they want
    3:54:24 they can violate whatever agreements they want they can they can use aggression against anyone they
    3:54:29 want and i think that makes that puts american lives in danger and we’ve seen the results of that
    3:54:34 where we we delayed and delayed and delayed and we didn’t move and we didn’t move too early and we
    3:54:40 didn’t preempt and and the threat grew and we ignored the gathering storm and so i think the lessons of
    3:54:47 you know 100 years of american military involvement is if you have an opportunity early on as the storm is
    3:54:54 gathering to use all instruments of american power with the military one being the last one you use
    3:55:02 then deter when you can and strike when you must in order to prevent the kinds of escalation and wars
    3:55:07 that everybody at this table and i’m sure everybody listening in your audience is seeking to avoid
    3:55:14 on that topic question for both of you scott if human civilization destroys itself in the next 75 years
    3:55:18 it probably most likely will be a world war three type of scenario maybe a nuclear war
    3:55:24 how do we avoid that we’ve been talking about iran but there’ll be new conflicts there’s ukraine
    3:55:34 china cashmere cashmere yeah um north korea no yeah don’t forget north korea yeah i mean there was a
    3:55:39 time when north korea was the biggest threat to human civilization according to we could have had a deal
    3:55:45 except john bolton ruined it so that’s the bigger question not so much in the specifics oh i mean the
    3:55:51 second time he ruined the clinton deal of 94 then he ruined the trump deal of 2018 or maybe maybe the
    3:55:55 korean dictator north korean dictator ruined it but again one doesn’t want to blame our enemies for
    3:55:59 their mistakes well you know that at the second meeting trump sent john bolton to outer mongolia
    3:56:05 so that he couldn’t sit at the table and ruin the deal but but what happened then the democrats had his
    3:56:10 lawyer testify against him while he was at the meeting and they had this huge propaganda campaign
    3:56:15 that kim jong-un is going to walk all over trump and take such advantage of him and they made it
    3:56:19 virtually impossible for him to walk away claiming a victory god do you ever blame the enemy ever
    3:56:26 do you ever blame the enemy north korea is not my enemy north korea is not your enemy no really they
    3:56:31 they they they build nuclear weapons icbms that targeted america george bush and john bolton’s fault
    3:56:38 whatever fault it is the fact of the matter is do you ever ever blame an american adversary or is it
    3:56:44 always our fault in fact what happened is it always our fault see all you can do is characterize but you
    3:56:50 want to talk about the details the details are that stephen began who worked for for donald trump
    3:56:56 gave a speech and said you know what we can put normalization first and denuclearization later i know
    3:57:02 and then they brought donald donald trump brought john bolton to the meeting and he prevented that
    3:57:09 from being the uh from being the uh the message of the meeting so it’s always ruin the deal always
    3:57:13 john bolton’s fault yes that’s right it’s all john bolton’s fault because how reasonable does it sound to
    3:57:19 you lex give up all your nuclear weapons first then we’ll talk about every other issue does that sound
    3:57:23 like a poison pill or that sounds like a reasonable negotiation give me a break sounds like a beginning of
    3:57:28 negotiation but yeah well they got nowhere well because trump brought john bolton with him and
    3:57:32 helped to ruin it and maybe they went nowhere because the north korean dictator at the end of the
    3:57:40 day is a dictator who wants to threaten the united states with icbms and nuclear listen you’re you’re
    3:57:45 criticizing the the sequential decisions made in negotiation i am asking you a serious question
    3:57:52 hours of talking okay which i must say i’ve really enjoyed i’ve learned a lot i enjoyed it i think
    3:57:56 there’s been areas of agreement obviously real disagreement but i here’s the question you’re
    3:58:02 like really i mean do you ever ever hold our adversaries responsible or do you just don’t think
    3:58:09 we have any adversaries this is ridiculous the the topic has been tell me from from your point of view
    3:58:15 it’s all the adversaries and all america and israel trying to do is survive and fix the situation the
    3:58:20 best they can i’ve acknowledged america mistakes by bringing up all the things that america and israel
    3:58:24 have done to make matters worse i didn’t ever say that the ayatollah is some great guy or that kim
    3:58:31 but do you think they’re a threat to america are they a threat to america no of course not as
    3:58:38 zibigna brzezinski said in 1993 we could have perfectly normalized relations then you talk about
    3:58:43 iranian support for al-qaeda iran supported al-qaeda in bosnia that’s the bottom line in 1995 as a favor to
    3:58:49 bill clinton because they were trying to suck up to the united states is why they supported your position
    3:58:55 yes my position is whatever you say it is not what i say no no i’m just trying to summarize you know
    3:58:59 who’s the last person who told me i need to be aware about over learning the lessons of iraq it was
    3:59:07 charlie savage from the new york times when on the subject was his absolute ridiculous hoax that russia
    3:59:13 was paying the taliban to murder american soldiers in afghanistan in 2020 which ruined trump’s potential
    3:59:17 which he was floating trow balloons about withdrawing in the summer of 2020 which would
    3:59:23 have absolutely scott you said joe biden erica you said it and charlie savage who published these
    3:59:29 ridiculous lies scott that were later refuted by the general in charge of the afghan war the head of
    3:59:32 centcom the chairman of the joint chief staff and the director of central intelligence as much detail as
    3:59:38 possible he told me you know what your problem is horton is you have over learned the lessons of iraq war
    3:59:45 two but it turned out those lessons were perfectly apt for charlie savage’s hoax it wasn’t true what
    3:59:49 charlie savage said you know what he resorted to he said well it’s true that there was a rumor i was
    3:59:54 reporting on scott you made it very clear america has no adversaries that’s called learning the lessons
    3:59:59 of iraq not over learning that all right so i guess the the answer to the question i asked uh about
    4:00:05 avoiding world war three three is the two of you becoming friends that’s my my goal if we can try to find
    4:00:10 the light at the end of the tunnel one one last question what gives you hope to the degree of hope
    4:00:18 about the future what gives you hope about this great country of ours and humanity too yeah i mean look
    4:00:25 there are a million wonderful things about this country the land the people our culture and our
    4:00:32 resources and everything and the kind of society that we could build in a not with a control system
    4:00:38 but with just a pure free market capitalist system in this country where people are allowed to own
    4:00:43 their property improve its value and exchange it on the market and build this country up we would be
    4:00:51 living in comparatively a paradise compared to what we have now and if you look at the opportunity costs
    4:00:58 just since the end of the cold war on on all that has been wasted on militarism in the middle east
    4:01:05 especially but also in eastern europe and in east asia all of that wealth put here could have gone
    4:01:12 much more to something like perfecting our society it’s always an unfinished project so that then we
    4:01:17 really have something to point to the rest of the world and say this is how you’re supposed to do it
    4:01:27 not like that i think it’s crucial that for all of the problems that somalia syria libya iraq afghanistan
    4:01:35 have the worst thing about those countries is america’s wars there it’s what we have done to them
    4:01:41 as the worst thing about those places so we’re not much of a position to criticize you know whatever
    4:01:46 horrible and political uh practices uh you know cultural and and things about their societies that
    4:01:52 we would like to criticize when the worst chaos that’s happened to them has been inflicted by our
    4:01:59 country against them virtually all in in wars of choice that were unnecessary from the get-go what gives you
    4:02:05 hope what gives me hope i think first of all um i have a lot of um hope and confidence in the wisdom
    4:02:11 of the american people um i think americans understand the end of the day that they need
    4:02:17 leaders who are about making america great again i think they elected donald trump who is flawed in
    4:02:22 many many ways but i think trump is wrestling with some of the questions that we have been wrestling with
    4:02:28 for the past five hours um i think that um i think most americans know that we have adversaries
    4:02:35 uh and you know it’s just overwhelming numbers of americans understand that they may disagree on
    4:02:39 exactly who is an adversary and how you rank them but they know we have adversaries i think the third
    4:02:45 thing is americans greatly admire the men and women in uniform i mean i think the institution with the
    4:02:51 greatest popularity in america still remains the u.s military while many of other institutions are
    4:02:56 are failing the american people and are reflected in the in the polling i think we’ve got to be very
    4:03:03 judicious about how we use this incredibly powerful military um because most importantly it comes down to
    4:03:06 it’s not about weapons and technology it’s about the people it’s about the men and women who it’s
    4:03:12 sacrificed their lives um to serve our country at the end of the day if we understand we have
    4:03:17 adversaries we’re careful about we how we use our military we understand the importance of forward
    4:03:23 deterrence in order to actually confront threats before they become so severe that we ended up plunging
    4:03:29 ourselves in a war i agree totally with scott in terms of how we use our money and how judiciously we
    4:03:34 must we have to guard it i agree with how we’ve we’ve run up these massive debts and we have to be
    4:03:39 actually if we’re serious and conservatives are really serious they need to stop they need to tackle
    4:03:46 these massive budgets deficits um and and you know it would be really easy if it was just all about the
    4:03:49 military and we could just kind of get rid of the pentagon and all of a sudden we’d be running balanced
    4:03:55 budgets it’s not the case we have much deeper structural economics economic problems in this country
    4:04:02 everybody knows that and so we got huge challenges as a country um but i really believe uh as i believe
    4:04:08 since i was a little kid that america is the greatest force for good in the world and that we do we make
    4:04:14 mistakes sometimes tragic mistakes we make huge miscalculations and i think we will be much more
    4:04:21 clear in how to rectify those mistakes if we stop obsessing with these boogeymen that are out there
    4:04:28 the israelis the jews the iranians well and we start focusing on our adversaries which are not
    4:04:34 the iranians because the 80 80 of iranians despise this regime and and you know lex i feel really bad
    4:04:37 that we in five hours we actually haven’t even talked about that in any detail many of my friends
    4:04:42 are iranian they’re beautiful people and it’s one of the great cultures on earth yeah and you know the
    4:04:46 only place they don’t succeed in the world is inside the islamic republic when they come to america
    4:04:52 and canada and europe they’re incredibly successful people and 80 of iranians despise this regime and
    4:04:59 they long for a free and prosperous iran and so it’s a big question that they’re ever going to get
    4:05:04 there and who knows the right way to get them there but at the end of the day i am convinced that the
    4:05:09 vast majority of iranians are our friends but there is a regime that has been trying to build nuclear
    4:05:15 weapons has been engaged in terrorism for decades has killed and maimed thousands of americans and
    4:05:21 and our allies and it’s a regime that has to be stopped and i think donald trump in the past couple
    4:05:27 of weeks i would argue in the past number of months has tried to try to play a strategy try to figure
    4:05:33 out a way to offer the iranians negotiations and a peaceful solution to this but use overwhelming
    4:05:39 military power recently against iran’s nuclear sites in a very targeted way in order to send a
    4:05:44 message to the islamic republic of iran that they cannot continue to build nuclear weapons and threaten
    4:05:52 america and so i hope that things will work out well on this i i’ve always said curb your enthusiasm
    4:06:00 because we have still a lot of of pieces that still need to fall into place and this is going to be
    4:06:05 a windy road as we try to figure this out i’m hoping for the best preparing for the worst and
    4:06:10 want to thank you very much for having me on the show scott it was a real pleasure to meet you i
    4:06:15 enjoyed the debate very lively i admire your dedication to the issue and your and your intention to detail
    4:06:21 and i think all of that speaks well of of you and your commitment and and your passion for this so i am
    4:06:29 thank you deeply grateful that you guys will come here uh this is really mind-blowing uh also that you
    4:06:35 have it’s silly maybe to say but the courage to sit down and talk through this through the tension
    4:06:40 i’ve learned a lot i think a lot of people are going to learn a lot um a fan of both of your work
    4:06:47 and um it means a lot that you come here today and talk to a silly kid like me so scott thank you so
    4:06:51 much brother thank you thank you mark thanks lex appreciate it bam thanks scott
    4:06:58 thanks for listening to this debate between scott horton and mark jubowitz to support this podcast
    4:07:03 please check out our sponsors in the description and consider subscribing to this channel
    4:07:10 and now let me leave you with some sobering words on the cost of war from dwight d eisenhower
    4:07:18 for some context eisenhower was the 34th president of the united states but before that during world war ii
    4:07:23 he was the supreme commander of the allied expeditionary force orchestrating some of the
    4:07:30 most significant military operations of the war with leadership marked by strategic and tactical brilliance
    4:07:39 it is in this context that the following words carry even more power and wisdom spoken in 1953
    4:07:47 every gun that is made every warship launched every rocket fired signifies in the final sense
    4:07:54 a theft from those who hunger and are not fed those who are cold and are not clothed
    4:08:03 this world in arms is not spending money alone it is spending the sweat of its laborers the genius of
    4:08:11 a scientist the hopes of its children the cost of one modern heavy bomber is this a modern brick school
    4:08:18 in more than 30 cities it is two electric power plants each serving a town of 60 000 population
    4:08:26 it is two fully equipped hospitals it is some 50 miles of concrete highway we pay for a single fighter
    4:08:35 plane with a half million bushels of wheat we pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have
    4:08:41 housed more than 8 000 people this is not a way of life at all in any true sense
    4:08:47 under the cloud of threatening war that is humanity hanging from a cross of iron
    4:08:55 and now allow me to add some additional brief excerpts in 1946 eisenhower said
    4:09:04 i hate war as only a soldier who has lived it can only as one who has seen its brutality its futility
    4:09:13 it’s stupidity in 1950 eisenhower said possibly my hatred of war blinds me so that i cannot comprehend
    4:09:21 the arguments they adduce but in my opinion there’s no such thing as a preventative war although the
    4:09:28 suggestion is repeatedly made none has yet explained how war prevents war worse than this no one has been
    4:09:37 been able to explain away the fact that war creates the conditions that beget war and finally an excerpt
    4:09:51 a vital element in the peace is our military establishment our arms must be mighty ready for
    4:09:56 instant action so that no potential aggressor may be tempted to risk his own destruction american makers of
    4:09:56 plowshares could with time and as required make swords as well but now we can no longer risk emergency
    4:10:16 improvisation of national defense we have been compelled to create a permanent armaments industry of vast proportions this conjunction of an
    4:10:23 an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in american experience
    4:10:25 yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications
    4:10:34 in the councils of government we must guard against an acquisition of unwarranted influence whether sought
    4:10:44 or unsought by the military industrial complex the potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists
    4:10:59 and will persist thank you for listening and hope to see you next time

    Debate on Iran war between Scott Horton and Mark Dubowitz. Scott Horton is the author and director of the Libertarian Institute, editorial director of Antiwar.com, host of The Scott Horton Show, and for the past three decades, a staunch critic of U.S. foreign policy and military interventionism. Mark Dubowitz is the chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, host of the Iran Breakdown podcast, and a leading expert on Iran and its nuclear program for over 20 years. This debate was recorded on Tuesday, June 24, after the Iran-Israel ceasefire was declared.
    Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep473-sc
    See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.

    Transcript:
    https://lexfridman.com/iran-israel-debate-transcript

    CONTACT LEX:
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    EPISODE LINKS:
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    The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD): https://www.fdd.org/

    Scott’s X: https://x.com/scotthortonshow
    Scott’s YouTube: https://youtube.com/@scotthortonshow
    Scott’s Podcast: https://www.scotthortonshow.com/
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    OUTLINE:
    (00:00) – Introduction
    (00:36) – Sponsors, Comments, and Reflections
    (08:02) – Iran-Israel War
    (16:45) – Iran’s Nuclear Program
    (48:37) – Nuclear weapons and uranium
    (1:00:40) – Nuclear deal
    (1:26:14) – Iran Nuclear Archive
    (1:48:50) – Best case and worst case near-term future
    (2:24:15) – US attack on Iran – Operation Midnight Hammer
    (2:47:48) – Nuclear proliferation in the future
    (3:08:46) – Libertarianism
    (3:21:35) – Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD)
    (3:37:10) – Trump and Peacemaking process
    (3:42:08) – WW2
    (3:55:08) – WW3

  • #472 – Terence Tao: Hardest Problems in Mathematics, Physics & the Future of AI

    AI transcript
    0:00:03 The following is a conversation with Terence Tao,
    0:00:07 widely considered to be one of the greatest mathematicians in history,
    0:00:10 often referred to as the Mozart of math.
    0:00:15 He won the Fields Medal and the Breakthrough Prize in Mathematics
    0:00:18 and has contributed groundbreaking work
    0:00:22 to a truly astonishing range of fields in mathematics and physics.
    0:00:27 This was a huge honor for me, for many reasons,
    0:00:32 including the humility and kindness that Terry showed to me
    0:00:34 throughout all our interactions.
    0:00:35 It means the world.
    0:00:38 And now, a quick few-second mention of each sponsor.
    0:00:43 Check them out in the description or at lexfriedman.com slash sponsors.
    0:00:45 It’s the best way to support this podcast.
    0:00:49 We’ve got Notion for teamwork, Shopify for selling stuff online,
    0:00:52 NetSuite for your business, Element for electrolytes,
    0:00:54 and AG1 for your health.
    0:00:55 Choose Wizen, my friends.
    0:00:57 And now, on to the full ad reads.
    0:00:58 They’re all here in one place.
    0:01:03 I do try to make them interesting by talking about some random things
    0:01:04 I’m reading or thinking about.
    0:01:07 But if you skip, please still check out the sponsors.
    0:01:08 I enjoy their stuff.
    0:01:09 Maybe you will, too.
    0:01:11 To get in touch with me, for whatever reason,
    0:01:13 go to lexfriedman.com slash contact.
    0:01:15 All right, let’s go.
    0:01:17 This episode is brought to you by Notion,
    0:01:20 a note-taking and team collaboration tool.
    0:01:24 I use Notion for everything, for personal notes, for planning these podcasts,
    0:01:27 for collaborating with other folks,
    0:01:30 and for super boosting all of those things with AI,
    0:01:34 because Notion does a great job of integrating AI into the whole thing.
    0:01:38 You know what’s fascinating is the mechanisms of human memory
    0:01:43 before we had widely adopted technologies and tools
    0:01:46 for writing and recording stuff,
    0:01:47 certainly before the computer.
    0:01:50 So you can look at medieval monks, for example,
    0:01:55 that would use the now well-studied memory techniques,
    0:01:57 like the memory palace,
    0:01:58 the spatial memory techniques,
    0:01:59 to memorize entire books.
    0:02:01 That is certainly the effect of technology,
    0:02:03 started by Google Search
    0:02:05 and moving to all the other things like Notion,
    0:02:08 that we’re offloading more and more and more
    0:02:10 of the task of memorization to the computers,
    0:02:15 which I think is probably a positive thing
    0:02:20 because it frees more of our brain to do deep reasoning,
    0:02:24 whether that’s deep dive, focused specialization,
    0:02:26 or the journalist type of thinking,
    0:02:28 versus memorizing facts.
    0:02:31 Although I do think that there’s a kind of
    0:02:34 Brackard model that’s formed when you memorize a lot of things,
    0:02:39 and from there, from inspiration, arises discovery.
    0:02:40 So I don’t know.
    0:02:47 It could be a great cost to offloading most of our memorization to the machines.
    0:02:50 But it is the way of the world.
    0:02:53 Try Notion AI for free when you go to notion.com slash lex.
    0:02:56 That’s all lowercase notion.com slash lex
    0:02:58 to try the power of Notion AI today.
    0:03:01 This episode is also brought to you by Shopify,
    0:03:05 a platform designed for anyone to sell anywhere with a great looking online store.
    0:03:08 Our future friends has a lot of robots in it.
    0:03:10 Looking into that distant future,
    0:03:16 you have Amazon warehouses with millions of robots that move packages around.
    0:03:22 You have Tesla bots everywhere in the factories and in the home and on the streets and the baristas.
    0:03:23 All of that.
    0:03:24 That’s our future.
    0:03:28 Right now you have something like Shopify that connects a lot of humans in the digital space.
    0:03:38 But more and more, there will be an automated, digitized, AI-fueled connection between humans in the physical space.
    0:03:43 Like a lot of futures, there’s going to be negative things and there’s going to be positive things.
    0:03:48 And like a lot of possible futures, there’s little we could do about stopping it.
    0:03:53 All we can do is steer it in the direction that enables human flourishing.
    0:04:04 Instead of hiding in fear or fear-mongering, be part of the group of people that are building the best possible trajectory of human civilization.
    0:04:10 Anyway, sign up for a $1 per month trial period at shopify.com slash lex.
    0:04:11 That’s all lowercase.
    0:04:15 Go to shopify.com slash lex to take your business to the next level today.
    0:04:22 This episode is also brought to you by NetSuite, an all-in-one cloud business management system.
    0:04:26 There’s a lot of messy components to running a business.
    0:04:34 And I must ask, and I must wonder, at which point there’s going to be an AI, AGI-like CFO of a company.
    0:04:43 An AI agent that handles most, if not all, of the financial responsibilities or all of the things that NetSuite is doing.
    0:04:49 At which point will NetSuite increasingly leverage AI for those tasks?
    0:05:06 I think probably it will integrate AI into its tooling, but I think there’s a lot of edge cases that we need the human wisdom, the human intuition grounded in years of experience in order to make the tricky decision around the edge cases.
    0:05:22 I suspect that running a company is a lot more difficult than people realize, but there’s a lot of sort of paperwork type stuff that could be automated, could be digitized, could be summarized, integrated, and used as a foundation for the said humans to make decisions.
    0:05:25 Anyway, that’s our future.
    0:05:30 Download the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning at netsuite.com slash lex.
    0:05:32 That’s netsuite.com slash lex.
    0:05:39 This episode is also brought to you by Element, my daily zero-sugar and delicious electrolyte mix.
    0:05:45 You know, I run along the river often and get to meet some really interesting people.
    0:05:50 One of the people I met was preparing for his first ultra-marathon.
    0:05:52 I believe he said it was 100 miles.
    0:05:59 And that, of course, sparked in me the thought that I need for sure to do one myself.
    0:06:10 Some time ago now, I was planning to do something with David Goggins, and I think that’s still on the sort of to-do list between the two of us, to do some crazy physical feat.
    0:06:16 Of course, the thing that is crazy for me is daily activity for Goggins.
    0:06:25 But nevertheless, I think it’s important in the physical domain, the mental domain, and all domains of life to challenge yourself.
    0:06:32 And athletic endeavors is one of the most sort of crisp, clear, well-structured way of challenging yourself.
    0:06:34 But there’s all kinds of things.
    0:06:35 Writing a book.
    0:06:40 To be honest, having kids and marriage and relationships and friendships.
    0:06:46 All of those, if you take it seriously, if you go all in and do it right, I think that’s a serious challenge.
    0:06:50 Because most of us are not prepared for it.
    0:06:51 You can learn along the way.
    0:06:59 And if you have the rigorous feedback loop of improving, constantly growing as a person, and really doing a great job of the thing,
    0:07:04 I think that might as well be an ultra-marathon.
    0:07:07 Anyway, get a sample pack for free with any purchase.
    0:07:10 Try it at drinkelement.com slash lex.
    0:07:15 And finally, this episode is also brought to you by AG1.
    0:07:19 An all-in-one daily drink to support better health and peak performance.
    0:07:22 I drink it every day.
    0:07:28 I’m preparing for a conversation on drugs in the Third Reich.
    0:07:34 And funny enough, it’s a kind of way to analyze Hitler’s biography.
    0:07:37 It’s to look at what he consumed throughout.
    0:07:41 And Norman Oler does a great job of analyzing all of that.
    0:07:47 And tells the story of Hitler and the Third Reich in a way that hasn’t really been touched by historians before.
    0:07:54 It’s always nice to look at key moments in history through a perspective that’s not often taken.
    0:08:00 Anyway, I mention that because I think Hitler had a lot of stomach problems.
    0:08:04 And so that was the motivation for getting a doctor.
    0:08:08 The doctor that eventually would fill him up with all kinds of drugs.
    0:08:15 But the doctor earned Hitler’s trust by giving him probiotics, which is a kind of revolutionary thing at the time.
    0:08:20 And so that really helped deal with whatever stomach issues that Hitler was having.
    0:08:24 All of that is a reminder that war is waged by humans.
    0:08:26 And humans are biological systems.
    0:08:31 And biological systems require fuel and supplements and all of that kind of stuff.
    0:08:36 And depending on what you put in your body will affect your performance in the short term and the long term.
    0:08:40 With meth, that’s true with Hitler.
    0:08:43 To his last days in the bunker in Berlin.
    0:08:46 All the cocktail of drugs that he was taking.
    0:08:49 So, I think I got myself somewhere deep.
    0:08:53 I’m not sure how to get out of this.
    0:08:57 It deserves a multi-hour conversation versus a few seconds of mention.
    0:09:04 But yeah, all of that was sparked by my thinking of AG1 and how much I love it.
    0:09:07 I appreciate that you’re listening to this.
    0:09:12 And coming along for the wild journey that these ad reads are.
    0:09:19 Anyway, AG1 will give you a one-month supply of fish oil when you sign up at drinkag1.com slash Lex.
    0:09:22 This is the Lex Friedman podcast.
    0:09:28 To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description or at lexfriedman.com slash sponsors.
    0:09:32 And now, dear friends, here’s Terrence Tao.
    0:09:54 What was the first really difficult research-level math problem that you encountered?
    0:09:56 One that gave you pause, maybe?
    0:10:02 Well, I mean, in your undergraduate education, you learn about the really hard impossible problems.
    0:10:05 Like the Riemann hypothesis, the Trin-Primes conjecture.
    0:10:07 You can make problems arbitrarily difficult.
    0:10:08 That’s not really a problem.
    0:10:10 In fact, there’s even problems that we know to be unsolvable.
    0:10:17 What’s really interesting are the problems just on the boundary between what we can do easily and what are hopeless.
    0:10:25 But what are problems where existing techniques can do like 90% of the job and then you just need that remaining 10%?
    0:10:30 I think as a PhD student, the Kikeya problem certainly caught my eye.
    0:10:32 And it just got solved, actually.
    0:10:34 It’s a problem I’ve worked on a lot in my early research.
    0:10:41 Historically, it came from a little puzzle by the Japanese mathematician Soji Kikeya in like 1918 or so.
    0:10:48 So the puzzle is that you have a needle on the plane.
    0:10:52 Well, think of like driving on a road or something.
    0:10:54 And you want to execute a U-turn.
    0:10:55 You want to turn the needle around.
    0:10:59 But you want to do it in as little space as possible.
    0:11:03 So you want to use this little area in order to turn it around.
    0:11:06 But the needle is infinitely maneuverable.
    0:11:09 So you can imagine just spinning it around.
    0:11:10 It’s a unit needle.
    0:11:12 You can spin it around its center.
    0:11:15 And I think that gives you a disk of area, I think, pi over 4.
    0:11:22 Or you can do a 3-point U-turn, which is what we teach people in their driving schools to do.
    0:11:24 And that actually takes area pi over 8.
    0:11:27 So it’s a little bit more efficient than a rotation.
    0:11:31 And so for a while, people thought that was the most efficient way to turn things around.
    0:11:37 But Vesikovic showed that, in fact, you could actually turn the needle around using as little area as you wanted.
    0:11:47 So 0.001, there was some really fancy multi-back-and-forth U-turn thing that you could do, that you could turn the needle around.
    0:11:50 And in so doing, it would pass through every intermediate direction.
    0:11:51 Is this in the two-dimensional plane?
    0:11:53 This is in the two-dimensional plane.
    0:11:55 So we understand everything in two dimensions.
    0:11:57 So the next question is what happens in three dimensions.
    0:12:01 So suppose the Hubble Space Telescope is tube in space.
    0:12:04 And you want to observe every single star in the universe.
    0:12:07 So you want to rotate the telescope to reach every single direction.
    0:12:09 And here’s the unrealistic part.
    0:12:11 Suppose that space is at a premium, which it totally is not.
    0:12:18 You want to occupy as little volume as possible in order to rotate your needle around in order to see every single star in the sky.
    0:12:22 How small a volume do you need to do that?
    0:12:25 And so you can modify Vesikovic’s construction.
    0:12:30 And so if your telescope has zero thickness, then you can use as little volume as you need.
    0:12:32 That’s a simple modification of the two-dimensional construction.
    0:12:37 But the question is that if your telescope is not zero thickness, but just very, very thin,
    0:12:44 some thickness delta, what is the minimum volume needed to be able to see every single direction as a function of delta?
    0:12:49 So as delta gets smaller, as your needle gets thinner, the volume should go down.
    0:12:50 But how fast does it go down?
    0:12:59 And the conjecture was that it goes down very, very slowly, like logarithically, roughly speaking.
    0:13:01 And that was proved after a lot of work.
    0:13:04 So this seems like a puzzle-wise and interesting.
    0:13:08 So it turns out to be surprisingly connected to a lot of problems in partial differential equations,
    0:13:12 in number theory, in geometry, combinatorics.
    0:13:16 For example, in wave propagation, you splash some water around, you create water waves,
    0:13:17 and they travel in various directions.
    0:13:22 But waves exhibit both particle and wave type behavior.
    0:13:29 So you can have what’s called a wave packet, which is like a very localized wave that is localized in space and moving a certain direction in time.
    0:13:34 And so if you plot it into space and time, it occupies a region which looks like a tube.
    0:13:43 And so what can happen is that you can have a wave which initially is very dispersed, but it all focuses at a single point later in time.
    0:13:47 Like you can imagine dropping a pebble into a pond and ripples spread out.
    0:13:52 But then if you time reverse that scenario, and the equations of wave motion are time reversible,
    0:13:59 you can imagine ripples that are converging to a single point, and then a big splash occurs, maybe even a singularity.
    0:14:07 And so it’s possible to do that, and geometrically what’s going on is that there’s always sort of light rays.
    0:14:12 So like if this wave represents light, for example, you can imagine this wave as a superposition of photons,
    0:14:15 all traveling at the speed of light.
    0:14:18 They all travel on these light rays, and they’re all focusing at this one point.
    0:14:24 So you can have a very dispersed wave, focus into a very concentrated wave at one point in space and time,
    0:14:27 but then it defocuses again, and it separates.
    0:14:30 But potentially, if the pinjaccio had a negative solution,
    0:14:36 so what that means is that there’s a very efficient way to pack tubes pointing in different directions
    0:14:40 into a very, very narrow region of a very narrow volume.
    0:14:43 Then you would also be able to create waves that start out,
    0:14:46 there’ll be some arrangement of waves that start out very, very dispersed,
    0:14:49 but they would concentrate not just at a single point,
    0:14:55 but there’ll be a lot of concentrations in space and time.
    0:15:01 And you could create what’s called a blow-up, where these waves, their amplitude becomes so great
    0:15:05 that the laws of physics that they’re governed by are no longer wave equations,
    0:15:06 but something more complicated and non-linear.
    0:15:11 And so in mathematical physics, we care a lot about whether certain equations
    0:15:15 and wave equations are stable or not, whether they can create these singularities.
    0:15:19 There’s a famous unsolved problem called the Navier-Stokes regularity problem.
    0:15:22 So the Navier-Stokes equations, equations that govern the fluid flow,
    0:15:24 or incompressible fluids like water.
    0:15:28 The question asks, if you start with a smooth velocity field of water,
    0:15:32 can it ever concentrate so much that the velocity becomes infinite at some point?
    0:15:33 That’s called a singularity.
    0:15:37 We don’t see that in real life.
    0:15:40 If you splash around water in a bathtub, it won’t explode on you,
    0:15:44 or have water leaving at a speed of light.
    0:15:46 But potentially, it is possible.
    0:15:55 And in fact, in recent years, the consensus has drifted towards the belief that,
    0:16:00 in fact, for certain very special initial configurations of, say, water,
    0:16:02 that singularities can form.
    0:16:05 But people have not yet been able to actually establish this.
    0:16:08 The Clay Foundation has these seven Millennium Prize problems,
    0:16:11 has a million-dollar prize for solving one of these problems.
    0:16:12 This is one of them.
    0:16:14 Of these seven, only one of them has been solved.
    0:16:16 At the point, great conjecture.
    0:16:22 So, the Kakeha conjecture is not directly, directly related to the Navier-Stokes problem,
    0:16:28 but understanding it would help us understand some aspects of things like wave concentration,
    0:16:31 which would indirectly probably help us understand the Navier-Stokes problem better.
    0:16:33 Can you speak to the Navier-Stokes?
    0:16:37 So, the existence and smoothness, like you said, Millennial Prize problem.
    0:16:38 Right.
    0:16:39 You’ve made a lot of progress on this one.
    0:16:43 In 2016, you published a paper, Finite Time Blow-Up,
    0:16:46 for an averaged three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equation.
    0:16:46 Right.
    0:16:51 So, we’re trying to figure out if this thing usually doesn’t blow up.
    0:16:52 Right.
    0:16:55 But, can we say for sure it never blows up?
    0:16:56 Right.
    0:16:56 Yeah.
    0:16:58 So, yeah, that is literally the million-dollar question.
    0:16:59 Yeah.
    0:17:03 So, this is what distinguishes mathematicians from pretty much everybody else.
    0:17:11 Like, if something holds 99.99% of the time, that’s good enough for most, you know, for most things.
    0:17:20 But, mathematicians are one of the few people who really care about whether, like, 100%, really 100% of all situations are covered by, yeah.
    0:17:24 So, most fluid, most of the time, water does not blow up.
    0:17:28 But, could you design a very special initial state that does this?
    0:17:33 And, maybe we should say that this is a set of equations that govern in the field of fluid dynamics.
    0:17:34 Yes.
    0:17:36 Trying to understand how fluid behaves.
    0:17:42 And, it actually turns out to be a really complicated, you know, fluid is an extremely complicated thing to try to model.
    0:17:42 Yeah.
    0:17:44 So, it has practical importance.
    0:17:48 So, this clay price problem concerns what’s called the incompressible Navier-Stokes, which governs things like water.
    0:17:51 There’s something called the compressible Navier-Stokes, which governs things like air.
    0:17:53 And, that’s particularly important for weather prediction.
    0:17:56 Weather prediction, it does a lot of computational fluid dynamics.
    0:17:59 A lot of it is actually just trying to solve the Navier-Stokes equations as best they can.
    0:18:05 Also, gathering a lot of data so that they can get, they can initialize the equation.
    0:18:06 There’s a lot of moving parts.
    0:18:08 So, it’s a very important problem, practically.
    0:18:12 Why is it difficult to prove general things?
    0:18:17 About the set of equations like it not blowing up.
    0:18:18 The short answer is Maxwell’s Demon.
    0:18:21 So, Maxwell’s Demon is a concept in thermodynamics.
    0:18:24 Like, if you have a box of two gases, you know, oxygen and nitrogen.
    0:18:27 And, maybe you start with all the oxygen on one side and nitrogen on the other side.
    0:18:29 But, there’s no barrier between them.
    0:18:30 Then, they will mix.
    0:18:32 And, they should stay mixed.
    0:18:35 There’s no reason why they should unmix.
    0:18:40 But, in principle, because of all the collisions between them, there could be some sort of weird conspiracy.
    0:18:50 Like, maybe there’s a microscopic demon called Maxwell’s Demon that will, every time an oxygen and nitrogen atom collide, they will bounce off in such a way that the oxygen sort of drifts onto one side and the nitrogen goes to the other.
    0:18:56 And, you could have an extremely improbable configuration emerge, which we never see.
    0:19:00 And, statistically, it’s extremely unlikely.
    0:19:03 But, mathematically, it’s possible that this can happen.
    0:19:05 And, we can’t rule it out.
    0:19:09 And, this is a situation that shows up a lot in mathematics.
    0:19:11 A basic example is the digits of pi.
    0:19:13 3.14159, and so forth.
    0:19:16 The digits look like they have no pattern.
    0:19:17 And, we believe they have no pattern.
    0:19:21 On the long term, you should see as many ones and twos and threes as fours and fives and sixes.
    0:19:26 There should be no preference in the digits of pi to favor, let’s say, 7 over 8.
    0:19:35 But, maybe there’s some demon in the digits of pi that, like, every time you compute more and more digits, it biases one digit to another.
    0:19:39 And, this is a conspiracy that should not happen.
    0:19:40 There’s no reason it should happen.
    0:19:45 But, there’s no way to prove it with our current technology.
    0:19:47 Okay, so, getting back to Navier-Stokes.
    0:19:49 A fluid has a certain amount of energy.
    0:19:52 And, because the fluid is in motion, the energy gets transported around.
    0:19:54 And, water is also viscous.
    0:20:02 So, if the energy is spread out over many different locations, the natural viscosity of the fluid will just damp out the energy and it will go to zero.
    0:20:08 And, this is what happens when we actually experiment with water.
    0:20:11 You splash around, there’s some turbulence and waves and so forth.
    0:20:13 But, eventually, it settles down.
    0:20:18 And, the lower the amplitude, the smaller the velocity, the more calm it gets.
    0:20:26 But, potentially, there is some sort of demon that keeps pushing the energy of the fluid into a smaller and smaller scale.
    0:20:27 And, it will move faster and faster.
    0:20:31 And, at faster speeds, the effect of viscosity is relatively less.
    0:20:41 And, it could happen that it creates some sort of, what’s called a self-similar blow-up scenario, where, you know, the energy of the fluid starts off at some large scale.
    0:20:53 And, then, it all sort of transfers the energy into a smaller region of the fluid, which then, at a much faster rate, moves into an even smaller region and so forth.
    0:20:59 And, each time it does this, it takes maybe half as long as the previous one.
    0:21:07 And, then, you could actually converge to all the energy concentrating in one point in a finite amount of time.
    0:21:12 And, that scenario is called finite amount of blow-up.
    0:21:14 So, in practice, this doesn’t happen.
    0:21:17 So, water is what’s called turbulent.
    0:21:23 So, it is true that, if you have a big eddy of water, it will tend to break up into smaller eddies.
    0:21:26 But, it won’t transfer all the energy from one big eddy into one smaller eddy.
    0:21:28 It will transfer into maybe three or four.
    0:21:31 And, then, those ones split up into maybe three or four small eddies of their own.
    0:21:37 And, so, the energy gets dispersed to the point where the viscosity can then keep everything under control.
    0:21:50 But, if it can somehow concentrate all the energy, keep it all together, and do it fast enough that the viscous effects don’t have enough time to calm everything down, then this blow-up can occur.
    0:21:57 So, there are papers who have claimed that, oh, you just need to take into account conservation of energy and just carefully use the viscosity.
    0:22:02 And, you can keep everything under control for not just Navier-Stokes, but for many, many types of equations like this.
    0:22:10 And, so, in the past, there have been many attempts to try to obtain what’s called global regularity for Navier-Stokes, which is the opposite of final time blow-up, that velocity stays smooth.
    0:22:12 And, it all failed.
    0:22:15 There was always some sign error or some subtle mistake, and it couldn’t be salvaged.
    0:22:24 So, what I was interested in doing was trying to explain why we were not able to disprove final time blow-up.
    0:22:28 I couldn’t do it for the actual equations of fluids, which were too complicated.
    0:22:38 But, if I could average the equations of motion of Navier-Stokes, so, basically, if I could turn off certain types of ways in which water interacts, and only keep the ones that I want.
    0:22:58 So, in particular, if there’s a fluid, and it could transfer its energy from a large eddy into this small eddy, or this other small eddy, I would turn off the energy channel that would transfer energy to this one, and direct it only into this smaller eddy, while still preserving the law of conservation of energy.
    0:22:59 So, you’re trying to make a blow-up.
    0:22:59 Yeah.
    0:23:06 So, I basically engineer a blow-up by changing volts of physics, which is one thing that mathematicians are allowed to do.
    0:23:07 We can change the equation.
    0:23:10 How does that help you get closer to the proof of something?
    0:23:10 Right.
    0:23:13 So, it provides what’s called an obstruction in mathematics.
    0:23:26 So, what I did was that, basically, if I turned off certain parts of the equation, which, usually, when you turn off certain interactions, make it less non-linear, it makes it more regular and less likely to blow up.
    0:23:35 But, I found that by turning off a very well-designed set of interactions, I could force all the energy to blow up in finite time.
    0:23:51 So, what that means is that, if you wanted to prove global regularity for Navier-Stokes, for the actual equation, you must use some feature of the true equation, which my artificial equation does not satisfy.
    0:23:54 So, it rules out certain approaches.
    0:24:04 So, the thing about math is, it’s not just about finding, you know, taking a technique that is going to work and applying it, but you need to not take the techniques that don’t work.
    0:24:17 And, for the problems that are really hard, often there are dozens of ways that you might think might apply to solve the problem, but it’s only after a lot of experience that you realize there’s no way that these methods are going to work.
    0:24:30 So, having these counter-examples for nearby problems kind of rules out, it saves you a lot of time because you’re not wasting energy on things that you now know cannot possibly ever work.
    0:24:37 How deeply connected is it to that specific problem of fluid dynamics, or is it some more general intuition you build up about mathematics?
    0:24:38 Right, yeah.
    0:24:43 So, the key phenomenon that my technique exploits is what’s called supercriticality.
    0:24:48 So, in partial differential equations, often these equations are like a tug-of-war between different forces.
    0:24:54 So, in Navier-Stokes, there’s the dissipation force coming from viscosity, and it’s very well understood.
    0:24:55 It’s linear.
    0:24:56 It calms things down.
    0:25:00 So, if viscosity was all there was, then nothing bad would ever happen.
    0:25:09 But there’s also transport, that energy in one location of space can get transported because the fluid is in motion to other locations.
    0:25:13 And that’s a non-linear effect, and that causes all the problems.
    0:25:19 So, there are these two competing terms in the Navier-Stokes equation, the dissipation term and the transport term.
    0:25:24 If the dissipation term dominates, if it’s large, then basically you get regularity.
    0:25:29 And if the transport term dominates, then we don’t know what’s going on.
    0:25:30 It’s a very non-linear situation.
    0:25:31 It’s unpredictable.
    0:25:31 It’s turbulent.
    0:25:38 So, sometimes these forces are in balance at small scales, but not in balance at large scales, or vice versa.
    0:25:40 So, Navier-Stokes is what’s called supercritical.
    0:25:45 So, at smaller and smaller scales, the transport terms are much stronger than the viscosity terms.
    0:25:48 So, the viscosity terms are the things that calm things down.
    0:25:53 And so, this is why the problem is hard.
    0:26:00 In two dimensions, so, the Soviet mathematician, Ladishan Skaya, she, in the 60s, showed in two dimensions there was no blow-up.
    0:26:03 And as you mentioned, the Navier-Stokes equation is what’s called critical.
    0:26:08 The effect of transport and the effect of viscosity are about the same strength, even at very, very small scales.
    0:26:13 And we have a lot of technology to handle critical and also subcritical equations and prove regularity.
    0:26:17 But for supercritical equations, it was not clear what was going on.
    0:26:21 And I did a lot of work, and then there’s been a lot of follow-up,
    0:26:26 showing that for many other types of supercritical equations, you can create all kinds of blow-up examples.
    0:26:31 Once the nonlinear effects dominate the linear effects at small scales, you can have all kinds of bad things happen.
    0:26:40 So, this is sort of one of the main insights of this line of work, is that supercriticality versus criticality and subcriticality, this makes a big difference.
    0:26:46 I mean, that’s a key qualitative feature that distinguishes some equations for being sort of nice and predictable,
    0:26:47 and, you know, like planetary motion.
    0:26:53 I mean, there’s certain equations that you can predict for millions of years, or thousands at least.
    0:26:54 Again, it’s not really a problem.
    0:26:59 But there’s a reason why we can’t predict the weather past two weeks into the future,
    0:27:00 because it’s a supercritical equation.
    0:27:03 Lots of really strange things are going on at very fine scales.
    0:27:12 So, whenever there’s some huge source of nonlinearity, that can create a huge problem for predicting what’s going to happen.
    0:27:13 Yeah.
    0:27:17 And if nonlinearity is somehow more and more featured and interesting at small scales.
    0:27:23 I mean, there’s many equations that are nonlinear, but in many equations, you can approximate things by the bulk.
    0:27:29 So, for example, planetary motion, you know, if you wanted to understand the orbit of the Moon or Mars or something,
    0:27:35 you don’t really need the microstructure of, like, the seismology of the Moon or, like, exactly how the Mars is distributed.
    0:27:39 You just, basically, you can almost approximate these planets by point masses.
    0:27:43 And just the aggregate behavior is important.
    0:27:50 But if you want to model a fluid, like the weather, you can’t just say, in Los Angeles, the temperature is this, the wind speed is this.
    0:27:54 For supercritical equations, the fine scale information is really important.
    0:27:57 So, if we can just linger on the Navier-Stokes equations a little bit.
    0:28:12 So, you’ve suggested, maybe you can describe it, that one of the ways to solve it or to negatively resolve it would be to sort of to construct a liquid, a kind of liquid computer.
    0:28:12 Right.
    0:28:17 And then show that the halting problem from computation theory has consequences for fluid dynamics.
    0:28:20 So, show it in that way.
    0:28:22 Can you describe this idea?
    0:28:22 Right, yeah.
    0:28:27 So, this came out of this work of constructing this average equation that blew up.
    0:28:33 So, as part of how I had to do this, so, there’s sort of this naive way to do it.
    0:28:35 You just keep pushing.
    0:28:41 Every time you get energy at one scale, you push it immediately to the next scale as fast as possible.
    0:28:44 This is sort of the naive way to force blow up.
    0:28:46 It turns out in five and higher dimensions, this works.
    0:28:50 But in three dimensions, there was this funny phenomenon that I discovered.
    0:28:59 That if you keep, if you change the laws of physics, you just always keep trying to push the energy into smaller, smaller scales.
    0:29:04 What happens is that the energy starts getting spread out into many scales at once.
    0:29:12 So, you have energy at one scale, you’re pushing it into the next scale, and then as soon as it enters that scale, you also push it to the next scale.
    0:29:15 But there’s still some energy left over from the previous scale.
    0:29:16 You’re trying to do everything at once.
    0:29:19 And this spreads out the energy too much.
    0:29:26 And then it turns out that it makes it vulnerable for viscosity to come in and actually just damp out everything.
    0:29:30 So, it turns out this directive motion doesn’t actually work.
    0:29:34 There was a separate paper by some other authors that actually showed this in three dimensions.
    0:29:38 So, what I needed was to program a delay.
    0:29:40 So, kind of like airlocks.
    0:29:46 So, I needed an equation which would start with a fluid doing something at one scale.
    0:29:48 It would push its energy into the next scale.
    0:29:54 But it would stay there until all the energy from the larger scale got transferred.
    0:29:58 And only after you pushed all the energy in, then you sort of opened the next gate.
    0:30:00 And then you push that in as well.
    0:30:07 So, by doing that, the energy inches forward scale by scale in such a way that it’s always localized at one scale at a time.
    0:30:11 And then it can resist the effects of viscosity because it’s not dispersed.
    0:30:18 So, in order to make that happen, I had to construct a rather complicated non-linearity.
    0:30:24 And it was basically like, you know, it was constructed like an electronic circuit.
    0:30:28 So, I actually thanked my wife for this because she was trained as an electrical engineer.
    0:30:34 And, you know, she talked about, you know, she had to design circuits and so forth.
    0:30:45 And, you know, if you want a circuit that does a certain thing, like maybe have a light that flashes on and then turns off and then on and then off, you can build it from more primitive components, you know, capacitors and resistors and so forth.
    0:30:54 And these diagrams, you can sort of follow up with your eyeballs and say, oh, yeah, the current will build up here and then it will stop and then it will do that.
    0:31:00 So, I knew how to build the analog of basic electronic components, you know, like resistors and capacitors and so forth.
    0:31:07 And I would stack them together in such a way that I would create something that would open one gate and then there would be a clock.
    0:31:10 And then once the clock hits a certain threshold, it would close it.
    0:31:13 It would become a Rube Goldberg type machine, but described mathematically.
    0:31:15 And this ended up working.
    0:31:19 So, what I realized is that if you could pull the same thing off for the actual equations.
    0:31:38 So, if the equations of water support a computation, so, like, you can imagine kind of a steampunk, but it’s really waterpunk type of thing where, you know, so modern computers are electronic, you know, they’re powered by electrons passing through very tiny wires and interacting with other electrons and so forth.
    0:31:44 But instead of electrons, you can imagine these pulses of water moving at a certain velocity.
    0:31:49 And maybe it’s, there are two different configurations corresponding to a bit being up or down.
    0:32:03 Probably that if you had two of these moving bodies of water collide, they would come out with some new configuration, which is, which would be something like an AND gate or OR gate, you know, that the output would depend in a very predictable way on the inputs.
    0:32:07 And like, you could chain these together and maybe create a Turing machine.
    0:32:11 And then you could, you have computers, which are made completely out of water.
    0:32:17 And if you have computers, then maybe you can do robotics, you know, hydraulics and so forth.
    0:32:25 And so you could create some machine, which is basically a fluid analog, what’s called a von Neumann machine.
    0:32:32 So von Neumann proposed, if you want to colonize Mars, the sheer cost of transporting people and machines to Mars is just ridiculous.
    0:32:47 But if you could transport one machine to Mars, and this machine had the ability to mine the planet, create some more materials, smelt them, and build more copies of the same machine, then you could colonize the whole planet over time.
    0:32:55 So if you could build a fluid machine, which, yeah, so it’s, it’s, it’s a, it’s a, it’s a, it’s a fluid robot.
    0:32:56 Okay.
    0:32:58 And what it would do, it’s, it’s purpose in life.
    0:33:03 It’s programmed so that it would create a smaller version of itself in some sort of cold state.
    0:33:04 It wouldn’t start just yet.
    0:33:10 Once it’s ready, the big robot conviction of water would transfer all its energy into the smaller configuration and then power down.
    0:33:11 Okay.
    0:33:12 And then like, like clean itself up.
    0:33:18 And then what’s left is this newest state, which would then turn on and do the same thing, but smaller and faster.
    0:33:20 And then the equation has a certain scaling symmetry.
    0:33:22 Once you do that, it can just keep iterating.
    0:33:26 So this in principle would create a blow up for the actual Navier-Stokes.
    0:33:29 And this is what I managed to accomplish for this average Navier-Stokes.
    0:33:32 So it provided this sort of roadmap to solve the problem.
    0:33:39 Now, this is a pipe dream because there are so many things that are missing for this to actually be a reality.
    0:33:44 So I, I, I can’t create these basic logic gates.
    0:33:48 I don’t, I don’t have these in these special configurations of water.
    0:33:59 So, um, I mean, there’s candidates that include vortex rings that might possibly work, but, um, um, but also, you know, analog computing is really nasty, um, compared to digital computing.
    0:34:00 I mean, cause there’s always errors.
    0:34:04 Um, you have to, you have to do a lot of error correction along the way.
    0:34:12 I don’t know how to completely power down the big machine so that it doesn’t interfere with the, the, the writing of a smaller machine, but everything in principle can happen.
    0:34:14 Like it doesn’t contradict any of the laws of physics.
    0:34:18 Um, so it’s sort of evidence that this thing is possible.
    0:34:26 Um, there are other groups who are now pursuing ways to make Navier-Stokes blow up, which are nowhere near as ridiculously complicated as this.
    0:34:39 Um, um, they, they actually are pursuing much closer to the direct self-similar model, which can, uh, it, it doesn’t quite work as is, but there could be some simpler scheme than what I just described to make this work.
    0:34:46 There is a real leap of genius here to go from Navier-Stokes to this Turing machine.
    0:35:03 So it goes from what the self-similar blob scenario that you’re trying to get the smaller and smaller blob to now having a liquid Turing machine gets smaller, smaller, smaller, and somehow seeing how that could be used.
    0:35:06 To say something about a blow up.
    0:35:07 I mean, that’s a big leap.
    0:35:08 So there’s precedent.
    0:35:18 I mean, um, so the, the thing about mathematics is that it’s, it’s really good at, um, spotting connections between what you think of, what you might think of as completely different, um, problems.
    0:35:23 Um, but if, if, if the mathematical form is the same, you, you, you, you can, you can, you can draw a connection.
    0:35:28 Um, so, um, there’s a lot of work previously on what’s called cellular automator.
    0:35:31 Um, the most famous of which is Conway’s Game of Life.
    0:35:33 This is infinite discrete grid.
    0:35:36 And at any given time, the grid is either occupied by a cell or it’s empty.
    0:35:40 And there’s a very simple rule that, uh, tells you how these cells evolve.
    0:35:42 So sometimes cells live and sometimes they die.
    0:35:51 Um, and there’s, um, you know, um, when I was a, uh, a student, uh, it was a very popular screensaver to actually just have these, these animations going on and they look very chaotic.
    0:35:57 In fact, they look a little bit like turbulent flow sometimes, but at some point people discovered more and more interesting structures within this game of life.
    0:36:00 Um, so for example, they discovered this thing called a glider.
    0:36:05 So a glider is a very tiny configuration of like four or five cells, which evolves and it just moves at a certain direction.
    0:36:07 And that’s like this, this vortex rings.
    0:36:10 Um, yeah, so this is an analogy.
    0:36:19 The Game of Life is kind of like a discrete equation and, and, um, the fluid Navier-Stokes is a continuous equation, but mathematically they have some similar features.
    0:36:27 Um, and, um, so over time people discovered more and more interesting things that you could build within the Game of Life.
    0:36:28 Game of Life is a very simple system.
    0:36:34 It only has like three or four rules, um, to, to do it, but, but you can design all kinds of interesting configurations inside it.
    0:36:38 Um, there’s something called a glider gun that does nothing to spit out gliders one at a, one, one at a time.
    0:36:47 Um, and then after a lot of effort, people managed to, to create, um, and gates and all gates for gliders.
    0:36:55 Like there’s this massive ridiculous structure, which if you, if, if, uh, if, uh, if you have a stream of gliders, um, coming in here and a stream of gliders coming in here,
    0:36:57 then you may produce a stream gliders coming out.
    0:37:04 If, if, maybe, if both of, of the, um, streams, um, have gliders, then there’ll be an output stream.
    0:37:06 But if only one of them does, then nothing comes out.
    0:37:08 So they could build something like that.
    0:37:17 And once you could build, and, um, these basic gates, then just from software engineering, you can build almost anything.
    0:37:19 Um, you can build a Turing machine.
    0:37:22 I mean, it’s, it’s like an enormous steampunk type things.
    0:37:28 They look ridiculous, but then people also generated self-replicating objects in the game of life.
    0:37:36 A massive machine, a boner machine, which over a lot, huge period of time, and it always looked like glider guns inside doing these very steampunk calculations.
    0:37:40 It would create another version of itself, which could replicate.
    0:37:41 It’s so incredible.
    0:37:45 A lot of this was like community crowdsourced by like amateur mathematicians, actually.
    0:37:48 Um, so I knew about that, that, that work.
    0:37:52 And so that is part of what inspired me to propose the same thing with Navier-Stokes.
    0:37:57 Um, which is a much, as I said, analog is much worse than digital.
    0:38:03 Like it’s going to be, um, you can’t just directly take the constructions in the game of life and plunk them in.
    0:38:05 But again, it just, it shows it’s possible.
    0:38:10 You know, there’s a kind of emergence that happens with these cellular automata.
    0:38:14 Local rules, maybe it’s similar to fluids.
    0:38:15 I don’t know.
    0:38:24 But local rules operating at scale can create these incredibly complex dynamic structures.
    0:38:28 Do you think any of that is amenable to mathematical analysis?
    0:38:33 Do we have the tools to say something profound about that?
    0:38:38 The thing is, you can get these emergent, very complicated structures, but only with very carefully prepared initial conditions.
    0:38:44 Yeah, so, so these, these, these glider guns and gates and, and software machines, if you just plunk down randomly,
    0:38:47 some cells and you, on the left, you will not see any of these.
    0:38:57 Um, and that’s the analogous situation of Navier-Stokes again, you know, that, that with, with typical initial conditions, you will not, you will not have any of this weird computation going on.
    0:39:06 Um, but basically through engineering, you know, by, by, by, by, by, by specially designing things in a very special way, you can pick clever constructions.
    0:39:15 I wonder if it’s possible to prove the sort of the negative of like, basically prove that only through engineering can you ever create something interesting.
    0:39:21 This, this, this is a recurring challenge in mathematics that, um, I call it the dichotomy between structure and randomness.
    0:39:24 That most objects that you can generate in mathematics are random.
    0:39:26 They look like random, like the digits of pi.
    0:39:28 Well, we believe is a good example.
    0:39:31 Um, but there’s a very small number of things that have patterns.
    0:39:41 Um, but, um, now you can prove something as a pattern by just constructing, you know, like if something has a simple pattern and you have a proof that it, it does something like repeat itself every so often you can do that.
    0:39:48 But, um, and you can prove that, that for example, you can, you can prove that most sequences of, of digits have no pattern.
    0:39:52 Um, so like if, if you just pick digits randomly, there’s something called the low large numbers.
    0:39:55 It tells you, you’re going to get as many ones as, as twos in the long run.
    0:40:02 Um, but, um, we have a lot fewer tools to, to, to, to, if I give you a specific pattern.
    0:40:06 Like the digits of pi, how can I show that this doesn’t have some weird pattern to it?
    0:40:14 Some other work that I have spent a lot of time on is to prove what are called structure theorems or inverse theorems that give tests for when something is, is very structured.
    0:40:17 So some functions are, what’s called additive.
    0:40:20 Like if you have a function that maps the natural numbers to the natural numbers.
    0:40:24 So maybe, um, you know, two maps to four or three maps to six and so forth.
    0:40:30 Um, some functions are what’s called additive, which means that if you add, if you add two inputs together, the output gets, gets added as well.
    0:40:32 Uh, for example, I’m multiplying by a constant.
    0:40:40 If you multiply a number by 10, um, if you, if you, if you, if you multiply a plus b by 10, that’s the same as multiplying a by 10 and b by 10 and then adding them together.
    0:40:42 So some, um, functions are additive.
    0:40:46 Some functions are kind of additive, but not completely additive.
    0:40:53 Um, so for example, if I take a number n, I multiply by the square root of two and I take the integer part of that.
    0:40:56 So 10 by square root of two is like 14 point something.
    0:40:59 So 10 up to 14, um, 20 up to 28.
    0:41:03 Um, so in that case, additivity is true then.
    0:41:05 So 10 plus 10 is 20 and 14 plus 40 is 28.
    0:41:08 But because of this rounding, uh, sometimes there’s roundoff errors.
    0:41:16 And sometimes when you, um, add a plus b, this function doesn’t quite give you the sum of, of the two individual outputs, but the sum plus minus one.
    0:41:19 Um, so it’s almost additive, but not quite additive.
    0:41:33 Um, so there’s a lot of useful results in mathematics and I’ve worked a lot on developing things like this to the effect that if, if a function exhibits some structure like this, then, um, it’s basically, there’s a reason for why it’s true.
    0:41:42 And the reason is because there’s, there’s some other nearby function, which is actually, um, completely structured, which is explaining this sort of partial pattern that you have.
    0:41:54 Um, and so if you have these sort of inverse theorems, it, um, it creates this sort of dichotomy that, that either the objects that you study are either have no structure at all, or they are somehow related to something that is structured.
    0:41:59 Um, and in either way, in either, um, uh, in either case, you can make progress.
    0:42:06 Um, a good example of this is that there’s this old theorem in mathematics called Szemeredi’s theorem, uh, proven in the 1970s.
    0:42:09 It concerns trying to find a certain type of pattern in a set of numbers.
    0:42:14 The pattern is arithmetic progression, things like three, five, and seven, or, or, or 10, 15, and 20.
    0:42:26 And Szemeredi, André, Szemeredi proved that, um, any set of numbers that are sufficiently big, um, what’s called, what’s called positive density, has, um, arithmetic progressions in it of, of any length you wish.
    0:42:33 Um, so for example, um, the odd numbers have a set of density one half, um, and they contain arithmetic progressions of any length.
    0:42:37 Um, so in that case, it’s obvious because the, the, the odd numbers are really, really structured.
    0:42:40 I can just take, uh, 11, 13, 15, 17.
    0:42:44 I just, I can, I can easily find arithmetic progressions in, in, in that set.
    0:42:48 Um, but, um, Szemeredi’s theorem also applies to random sets.
    0:42:56 If I take the set of all numbers and I flip a coin, um, and I, uh, for each number, and I only keep the numbers which, for which I got a heads.
    0:43:00 Okay, so I just flip coins, I just randomly take out half the numbers, I keep one half.
    0:43:02 So that’s a set that has no, no patterns at all.
    0:43:10 But just from random fluctuations, you will still get a lot of, um, um, of arithmetic progressions in that set.
    0:43:17 Can you prove that there’s arithmetic progressions of arbitrary length within a random?
    0:43:19 Yes, um, have you heard of the infinite monkey theorem?
    0:43:23 Usually, mathematicians give boring names to theorists, but occasionally they, they give colorful names.
    0:43:32 Yes, the popular version of the infinite monkey theorem is that if you have an infinite number of monkeys in a room with each of a typewriter, they type out, uh, text randomly.
    0:43:37 Almost surely one of them is going to generate the entire script of Hamlet or any other finite string of text.
    0:43:40 Uh, it will just take some time, quite a lot of time, actually.
    0:43:42 But if you have an infinite number, then it happens.
    0:43:53 Um, so, um, basically the theorem says that if you take an infinite string of, of digits or whatever, um, eventually any finite pattern you wish will emerge.
    0:43:56 Uh, it may take a long time, but it will eventually happen.
    0:43:59 Um, in particular, the arithmetic progressions of any length will eventually happen.
    0:44:03 Okay, but you need that, you, but you need an extremely long random sequence for this to happen.
    0:44:05 I suppose that’s intuitive.
    0:44:07 It’s just infinity.
    0:44:08 Yeah.
    0:44:10 Infinity absorbs a lot of sins.
    0:44:11 Yeah.
    0:44:13 How are we humans supposed to deal with infinity?
    0:44:26 Well, you can think of infinity as, as, as an abstraction of, um, a finite number for which you, you do not have a bound for, um, that, uh, you know, I mean, so nothing in real life is truly infinite.
    0:44:35 Um, but, you know, you can, um, you know, you can ask yourself questions like, you know, what if I had as much money as I wanted, you know, or what if I could go as fast as I wanted?
    0:44:45 And a way in which mathematicians formalize that is mathematics has found a formalism to idealize instead of something being extremely large or extremely small to actually be exactly infinite or zero.
    0:44:49 Um, and often the, the mathematics becomes a lot cleaner when you do that.
    0:45:01 I mean, in physics, we, we joke about, uh, assuming spherical cows, um, you know, like real world problems have got all kinds of real world effects, but you can idealize, send certain things to infinity, send certain things to zero.
    0:45:06 Um, and, um, and the mathematics becomes a lot simpler to work with there.
    0:45:16 I wonder how often using infinity, uh, forces us to deviate from, um, the physics of reality.
    0:45:16 Yeah.
    0:45:18 So there’s a lot of pitfalls.
    0:45:30 Um, so, you know, we, we spend a lot of time, you know, undergraduate math classes, teaching analysis, um, and analysis is often about how to take limits and, and, and, and whether, you know, so for example, a plus B is always B plus A.
    0:45:34 Um, so when, when you have a finite number of terms and you add them, you can swap them and there’s no, there’s no problem.
    0:45:43 But when you have an infinite number of terms, they’re these sort of show games you can play where you can have a series which converges to one value, but you rearrange it and it suddenly converges to another value.
    0:45:45 And so you can make mistakes.
    0:45:55 You have to know what you’re doing when you allow infinity, um, you have to introduce these epsilons and deltas and, and, and there’s, there’s a certain type of way of reasoning that helps you avoid mistakes.
    0:46:06 Um, in more recent years, um, people have started taking results that are true in, in infinite limits and what’s called, and what’s called, and what’s called finalizing them.
    0:46:11 Um, so you know that something’s true eventually, but, um, you don’t know when now give me a rate.
    0:46:11 Okay.
    0:46:18 So if I don’t have an infinite number of monkeys, but, but a large finite number of monkeys, how long do I have to wait for Hamlet to come out?
    0:46:21 Um, and, um, that’s a more quantitative question.
    0:46:28 Um, and this is something that you can, you can, um, attack by purely finite methods and you can use your finite intuition.
    0:46:33 Um, and in this case, it turns out to be exponential in the length of the text that you’re trying to generate.
    0:46:38 Um, so, um, and so this is why you never see the monkeys create Hamlet.
    0:46:41 You can maybe see them create a four letter word, but nothing that big.
    0:46:50 And so I personally find once you finiteize an infinite statement, it’s, it does become much more intuitive and it’s no longer so, so weird.
    0:46:56 Um, so even if you’re working with infinity, it’s good to finiteize so that you can have some intuition.
    0:46:57 Yeah.
    0:47:00 The downside is that the finite groups are just much, much messier.
    0:47:07 And, and, uh, yeah, so, so the infinite ones I found first, usually like decades earlier, and then later on people finalize them.
    0:47:16 So since we mentioned a lot of math and a lot of physics, uh, what is the difference between mathematics and physics as disciplines, as ways of understanding of seeing the world?
    0:47:19 Maybe we can throw an engineering in there.
    0:47:22 You mentioned your wife is an engineer, give it new perspective on circuits.
    0:47:22 Right.
    0:47:28 So this different way of looking at the world, given that you’ve done mathematical physics, you, you’ve, you’ve worn all the hats.
    0:47:29 Right.
    0:47:33 So I think science in general is interaction between three things.
    0:47:35 Um, there’s the real world.
    0:47:43 Um, there’s what we observe of the real world, our observations, and then our mental models as to how we think the world works.
    0:47:47 Um, so, um, we can’t directly access reality.
    0:47:48 Okay.
    0:47:52 Uh, all we have are the observations, which are incomplete and they, they have errors.
    0:47:59 Um, and, um, there are many, many cases where we would, um, uh, we want to know, for example, what is the weather like tomorrow?
    0:48:02 And we don’t yet have the observation and we’d like to, like a prediction.
    0:48:08 Um, and then we have these simplified models, sometimes making unrealistic assumptions, you know, spherical cow type things.
    0:48:10 Those are the mathematical models.
    0:48:12 Mathematics is concerned with the models.
    0:48:19 Science collects the observations and it proposes the models that might explain these observations.
    0:48:24 What mathematics does is, uh, you, we stay within the model and we ask what are the consequences of that model?
    0:48:32 What observations, what, what predictions would the model make of the, of future observations or past observations?
    0:48:33 Does it fit observed data?
    0:48:35 Um, so there’s definitely a symbiosis.
    0:48:48 Um, it’s math, I guess mathematics is, is unusual among other disciplines is that we start from hypotheses, like the axioms of a model and ask what conclusions come up from that model.
    0:48:54 Um, in almost any other discipline, uh, you start with the conclusions, you know, I want to do this.
    0:48:57 I want to build a bridge, you know, I want to, to make money.
    0:48:57 I want to do this.
    0:48:58 Okay.
    0:49:01 And then you, you, you find the path to get there.
    0:49:07 Um, a lot, there’s, there’s a lot less sort of speculation about, you know, suppose I did this, what would happen?
    0:49:14 Um, you know, planning and, and, and modeling, um, uh, speculative fiction maybe is one other place.
    0:49:16 Uh, but, uh, that’s about it actually.
    0:49:20 Most of the things we do in life is conclusions driven, including physics and science.
    0:49:22 You know, I mean, they want to know, you know, where is this asteroid going to go?
    0:49:24 You know, what, what, what, what is the weather going to be tomorrow?
    0:49:31 Um, but, um, but thanks also has this other direction of, of going from the, uh, the axioms.
    0:49:32 What do you think?
    0:49:36 There is this tension in physics between theory and experiment.
    0:49:41 What do you think is the more powerful way of discovering truly novel ideas about reality?
    0:49:43 Well, you need both top down and bottom up.
    0:49:46 Um, yeah, it’s just a, it’s a, it’s a really interaction between all these things.
    0:49:53 So over time, the observations and the theory and the modeling should both get closer to reality.
    0:49:59 But initially, and it isn’t, I mean, uh, this is, um, this is, um, this is always the case, you know, they’re, they’re always far apart to begin with.
    0:50:04 Um, but you need one to figure out where, where to push the other, you know?
    0:50:15 So, um, if your model is predicting anomalies, um, that are not picked up by experiment, that tells experimenters where to look, you know, um, to, to, to, to, to, to find more data to refine the models.
    0:50:18 Um, you know, so it, it, it goes, it goes back and forth.
    0:50:23 Um, within mathematics itself, there’s, there’s also a theory and experimental component.
    0:50:28 It’s just that until very recently, theory has dominated almost completely.
    0:50:30 Like 99% of mathematics is theoretical mathematics.
    0:50:33 And there’s a very tiny amount of experimental mathematics.
    0:50:40 Um, I mean, people do do it, you know, like if they want to study prime numbers or whatever, they can just generate large data sets.
    0:50:45 And so once we had the computers, um, we began to do it a little bit.
    0:50:55 Um, although even before, well, like Gauss, for example, he discovered, he conjectured the most basic theorem in, in number theory, which is called the prime number theorem, which predicts how many primes that are up to a million, up to a trillion.
    0:50:57 It’s not an obvious question.
    0:51:13 And basically what he did was like, he computed, uh, I mean, mostly, um, by himself, but also hired human computers, um, people whose professional job it was to do arithmetic, um, to compute the first hundred thousand primes or something and made tables and made a prediction.
    0:51:16 Um, and that was an early example of experimental mathematics.
    0:51:23 Um, but until very recently, it was not, um, yeah, I mean, theoretical mathematics was just much more successful.
    0:51:30 I mean, because doing complicated mathematical computations is, uh, was just not, not feasible until very recently.
    0:51:36 Uh, and even nowadays, you know, even though we have powerful computers, only some mathematical things can be, um, explored numerically.
    0:51:38 There’s something called the combinatorial explosion.
    0:51:43 If you want us to study, for example, you want to study all possible subsets of numbers one to a thousand.
    0:51:45 There’s only one thousand numbers.
    0:51:46 How bad could it be?
    0:51:56 It turns out the number of different subsets of one to a thousand is two to the power of one thousand, which is way bigger than, than, than any computer can currently, can, can, can any computer ever, or ever, um, enumerate.
    0:52:06 Um, so if you have to be, um, there are certain math problems that very quickly become just intractable to attack by direct brute force computation.
    0:52:09 Uh, chess is another, um, a famous example.
    0:52:14 Uh, the number of chess positions, uh, we can’t get a computer to fully explore.
    0:52:28 But now we have AI, um, um, we have tools to explore this space, not with 100% guarantees of success, but with experiment, you know, so, like, um, we can empirically solve chess now.
    0:52:37 Uh, for example, uh, we have, we have, uh, very, very good AIs that, that can, you know, they don’t explore every single position in the game tree, but they have found some very good approximation.
    0:52:50 Um, and people are using, actually, these chess engines, uh, to make, uh, to do experimental chess, um, that, uh, they’re, they’re revisiting old chess theories about, oh, you know, when you, this type of opening, you know, this is a good, this is a good type of move, this is not.
    0:52:57 And they can use these chess engines to actually, uh, refine, uh, in some cases, overturn, um, um, um, conventional wisdom about chess.
    0:53:04 And I, I do hope that, uh, that mathematics will, will have a larger experimental component in the future, perhaps powered by AI.
    0:53:07 We’ll, of course, talk about that, but in the case of chess.
    0:53:17 And there’s a similar thing in mathematics that I don’t believe it’s providing a kind of formal explanation of the different positions.
    0:53:20 It’s just saying which position is better or not, that you can intuit as a human being.
    0:53:25 And then from that, we humans can construct a theory of the matter.
    0:53:29 You’ve mentioned the Plato’s cave allegory.
    0:53:30 Mm-hmm.
    0:53:37 So, in case people don’t know, it’s where people are observing shadows of reality, not reality itself.
    0:53:41 And they believe what they’re observing to be reality.
    0:53:50 Is that, in some sense, what mathematicians and maybe all humans are doing, is, um, looking at shadows of reality?
    0:53:54 Is it possible for us to truly access reality?
    0:53:57 Well, there are these three ontological things.
    0:54:02 There’s actual reality, there’s our observations, and our, our models.
    0:54:07 Um, and technically they are distinct, and I think they will always be distinct.
    0:54:07 Um, right.
    0:54:11 But they can get closer, um, over time.
    0:54:20 Um, you know, so, um, and the process of getting closer often means that you’re, you have to discard your initial intuitions.
    0:54:36 Um, so, um, astronomy provides great examples, you know, like, you know, like, you know, like, you know, an initial model of the world is flat because it looks flat, you know, and, um, and that it’s, and it’s big, you know, and the rest of the universe, the skies is not, you know, like the sun, for example, looks really tiny.
    0:55:05 Um, and so, you, you start off with a model which is actually really far from reality, um, but it fits kind of the observations that you have, um, you know, so, you know, so things look good, you know, but over time, as you make more and more observations, bringing it closer to, to, to reality, um, the model gets dragged along with it, you know, and so, over time, we had to realize that the Earth was round, that it spins, it goes around the solar system, solar system goes around the galaxy, and so on and so forth, and the guys about the universe, you know, it’s expanding, um, expansions, it’s self-expanding, accelerating, and in fact,
    0:55:11 very recently in this year, I saw this, uh, even the acceleration of the universe itself is, uh, this evidence that is, is non-constant.
    0:55:15 And, uh, the explanation behind why that is, is…
    0:55:16 It’s catching up.
    0:55:18 Um, it’s catching up.
    0:55:21 I mean, it’s still, you know, the dark matter, dark energy, this kind of thing.
    0:55:21 Yes.
    0:55:42 We have, we have a model that sort of explains, that fits the data really well, it just has a few parameters that, um, uh, you have to specify, um, but, so, you know, people say, oh, that’s fudge factors, you know, with, with enough fudge factors, you can, you can explain anything, um, yeah, but, uh, the mathematical point of the model is that, um, you want to have fewer parameters in your model than data points in your observational set.
    0:55:48 So, if you have a model with 10 parameters that explains 10 observations, that is a completely useless model.
    0:55:49 It’s what’s called overfitted.
    0:55:59 But, like, if you have a model with, you know, two parameters, and it explains a trillion observations, which is basically, uh, so, uh, yeah, the, the, the dark matter model, I think, has, like, 14 parameters.
    0:56:15 And it explains petabytes of data, um, that, that, that, that the astronomers have, um, you can think of a theory, uh, like, one way to think about, um, uh, physical mathematical theory, uh, theory is, it’s, it’s, it’s a compression of, of the, of the universe, um, and a data compression.
    0:56:24 So, you know, you have these petabytes of observations, you’d like to compress it to a model, which you can describe in five pages and specify a certain number of parameters.
    0:56:31 And if it can fit to reasonable accuracy, you know, almost all of your observations, I mean, the more compression that you make, the better your theory.
    0:56:37 In fact, one of the great surprises of our universe and of everything in it is that it’s compressible at all.
    0:56:39 That’s the unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics.
    0:56:40 Yeah.
    0:56:41 Einstein had a quote like that.
    0:56:44 The, the most incomprehensible thing about the universe is that it is comprehensible.
    0:56:45 Right.
    0:56:49 And not just comprehensibly, you can do an equation like E equals mc squared.
    0:56:52 There is actually some mathematical possible explanation for that.
    0:56:56 Um, so there’s this phenomenon in mathematics called universality.
    0:57:01 So many complex systems at the macroscale are coming out of lots of tiny interactions at the macroscale.
    0:57:11 And normally because of the common form of explosion, you would think that, uh, the macroscale equations must be like infinitely exponentially more complicated than, than the, uh, the macroscale ones.
    0:57:14 And they are, if you want to solve them completely exactly.
    0:57:22 Like if you want to model, um, all the atoms in a box of, of air, uh, that’s like Avogadro’s number is humongous, right?
    0:57:23 There’s a huge number of particles.
    0:57:26 If you actually have to track each one, it would be ridiculous.
    0:57:34 But certain laws emerge at the macroscopic scale that almost don’t depend on what’s going on at the macroscale or only depend on a very similar number of parameters.
    0:57:44 So if you want to model a gas, um, of, you know, quintillion particles in a box, you just need to know its temperature and pressure and volume and a few parameters, like five or six.
    0:57:51 And it models almost everything you need to know about these 10 to 23 or whatever particles.
    0:58:05 Um, so we, we have, um, we, we don’t understand universality anywhere near as we would like mathematically, but there are much simpler toy models where we do, um, have a good understanding of why universality occurs.
    0:58:14 Um, um, most basic one is, is the central limit theorem that explains why the bell curve shows up everywhere in nature, that so many things are distributed by, that was called a Gaussian distribution.
    0:58:18 The famous bell curve, uh, there’s not even a meme with this curve.
    0:58:22 And even the meme applies broadly, the universality to the meme.
    0:58:26 Yes, you can go meta, uh, if you like, but there are many, many processes.
    0:58:33 For example, you can, you can take lots and lots of independent, um, random variables and average them together, um, uh, in, in various ways.
    0:58:40 You can take a simple average or more complicated average, and we can prove in various cases that, that these, these bell curves, these Gaussians emerge.
    0:58:42 And it is a satisfying, satisfying explanation.
    0:58:44 Um, sometimes they don’t.
    0:58:51 Um, so, so if you have many different inputs and they will correlate it in some systemic way, then you can get something very far from a bell curve show up.
    0:58:54 Uh, and this is also important to know when a situation fails.
    0:58:58 So universality is not a 100% reliable thing to rely on.
    0:59:03 Um, that, um, um, that the global financial crisis was a famous example of this.
    0:59:14 Uh, people thought that, uh, um, mortgage defaults, um, um, had this sort of, um, Gaussian type behavior that, that if you, if you ask, if a population of, of, uh, you know,
    0:59:22 100,000 Americans with mortgages, that’s what, what proportion of the world default in the mortgages, um, if everything was decorrelated, it would be a nice bell curve.
    0:59:26 And, and, and like, you can, you can, you can, you can manage risk with options and derivatives and so forth.
    0:59:29 And, um, and it is a very beautiful theory.
    0:59:37 Um, but if there are systemic shocks in the economy, uh, that can push everybody to default at the same time, uh, that’s very non-Gaussing behavior.
    0:59:42 Um, and, uh, this wasn’t fully accounted for in, uh, 2008.
    0:59:48 Um, now I think there’s some more awareness that this is a systemic risk is actually a much bigger issue.
    0:59:53 And, uh, just because the model is pretty, uh, and nice, uh, it may not match reality.
    0:59:59 And so, so the mathematics of working out what models do is really important.
    1:00:07 Um, but, um, also the, the science of validating when the models fit reality and when they don’t, um, I mean, that you need both.
    1:00:20 Um, and, but mathematics can help because it can, for example, these central limit theorems, it tells you that if you have certain axioms, like, like, like, uh, non-correlation, that if all the inputs were not correlated to each other, um, then you have this constant behavior.
    1:00:24 If things are fine, it tells you where to look for weaknesses in the model.
    1:00:40 So if you have a mathematical understanding of central limit theorem and someone proposes to use these Gaussian copulas or whatever to model, um, default risk, um, if you’re mathematically, um, trained, you would say, okay, but what are the systemic correlation between all your inputs?
    1:00:45 And so then, then you can ask the economists, you know, how, how, how much risk is that?
    1:00:47 Um, and then you can, you can, you can go look for that.
    1:00:51 So there’s always this, this, this synergy between science and mathematics.
    1:00:54 A little bit on the topic of universality.
    1:01:03 You’re known and celebrated for working across an incredible breadth of mathematics reminiscent of Hilbert a century ago.
    1:01:11 In fact, the great Fields Medal winning mathematician, Tim Gowers has said that you are the closest thing we get to Hilbert.
    1:01:15 He’s a colleague of yours.
    1:01:16 Good friend.
    1:01:21 But anyway, so you are known for this ability to go both deep and broad in mathematics.
    1:01:30 So you’re the perfect person to ask, do you think there are threads that connect all the disparate areas of mathematics?
    1:01:35 Is there a kind of deep underlying structure, uh, to all of mathematics?
    1:01:49 There’s certainly a lot of connecting threads, um, and a lot of the progress of mathematics has, can be represented by taking by stories of two fields of mathematics that were previously not connected and finding connections.
    1:01:53 Um, an ancient example is, um, geometry and number theory.
    1:01:57 You know, so, so, so in the times of ancient Greeks, these were considered different subjects.
    1:01:59 Um, I mean, mathematicians worked on both.
    1:02:04 You know, you could, uh, work both on geometry most famously, but also on numbers.
    1:02:08 Um, but they were not really considered related.
    1:02:15 Um, I mean, a little bit like, you know, you could say that, that this length was five times this length because you could take five copies of this length and so forth.
    1:02:26 But it wasn’t until Descartes who really realized that, uh, who developed, what we now call analytic geometry, that you can, you can parametrize the plane, a geometric object by, um, by two real numbers.
    1:02:31 Every point can be, and so geometric problems can be turned into, into problems about numbers.
    1:02:36 Um, and today this feels almost trivial.
    1:02:39 Like there’s, there’s, there’s, there’s no content to list.
    1:02:45 Like, of course, uh, you, you know, um, the plane is X, X, and Y, and of course that’s what we teach and it’s internalized.
    1:02:51 Um, but it was an important development that these, these two fields are, uh, will unify.
    1:02:55 Um, and this process has just gone on throughout mathematics over and over again.
    1:03:00 Algebra and geometry were separated and now we have a spirit algebraic geometry that connects them and over and over again.
    1:03:04 And that’s certainly the type of mathematics that I enjoy the most.
    1:03:07 So I think there’s sort of different styles to being a mathematician.
    1:03:13 I think hedgehogs and fox, a fox knows many things a little bit, but a hedgehog knows one thing very, very well.
    1:03:17 Um, and in mathematics, there’s definitely both hedgehogs and foxes.
    1:03:20 Um, and then there’s people who are kind of, uh, who can play both roles.
    1:03:27 Um, and I think ideal collaboration between mathematicians involves very, you need some diversity.
    1:03:31 Like, um, a fox working with many hedgehogs or vice versa.
    1:03:35 So, yeah, but I identify mostly as a fox, uh, certainly.
    1:03:48 I, I, I like, uh, arbitrage somehow, you know, like, like, um, learning how one field works, learning the tricks of that wheel and then going to another field, which people don’t think is related, but I can, I can adapt the tricks.
    1:03:51 So see the connections between the fields.
    1:03:52 Yeah.
    1:03:55 So there are other mathematicians who are far deeper than I am.
    1:03:57 Like, they’re really, they’re really hedgehogs.
    1:04:04 You know, they, they, they know everything about one field and they’re much faster and, and, and more effective in that field, but I can, I can give them these extra tools.
    1:04:10 I mean, you’ve said that you can be both the hedgehog and the, and the fox, depending on the context and depending on the collaboration.
    1:04:17 So what can you, if it’s at all possible, speak to the difference between those two ways of thinking about a problem?
    1:04:25 Say you’re encountering a new problem, you know, searching for the connections versus like very singular focus.
    1:04:30 I’m much more comfortable with, with the, uh, the, uh, the fox paradigm.
    1:04:35 So, um, yeah, I, I like looking for analogies, narratives.
    1:04:37 Um, I, I spend a lot of time.
    1:04:41 If there’s a result, I see it in one field and I like the result.
    1:04:43 It’s a cool result, but I don’t like the proof.
    1:04:47 Like it uses types of mathematics that I’m not super familiar with.
    1:04:51 Um, I often try to reprove it myself using the tools that I favor.
    1:04:53 Um, often my proof is worse.
    1:05:00 Um, but, um, by the exercise of doing so, um, I can say, oh, now I can see what the other proof was trying.
    1:05:07 Um, and from that, I can get some understanding of, of the tools that are used in, in that field.
    1:05:13 So it’s very exploratory, very doing crazy things in crazy fields and like reinventing the wheel a lot.
    1:05:13 Yeah.
    1:05:23 Whereas so the hedgehog style is, uh, I think much more scholarly, you know, you, you, you very knowledge-based, you, you, you, you, you stay up to speed on like all the developments in this field.
    1:05:29 You, you know, all the history, um, you have a very good understanding of, of exactly the strengths and weaknesses of, of each particular technique.
    1:05:37 Um, yeah, uh, I think you, you’d rely a lot more on sort of calculation than sort of trying to find narratives.
    1:05:43 Um, so yeah, I mean, I could do that too, but, uh, there are other people who are extremely good at that.
    1:05:52 Let’s step back and, uh, uh, maybe look at the, the, a bit of a romanticized version of mathematics.
    1:06:03 So, uh, I think you’ve said that early on in your life, uh, math was more like a puzzle solving activity when you were, uh, young.
    1:06:10 When did you first encounter a problem or proof where you realized math can have a kind of elegance and beauty to it?
    1:06:14 That’s a good question.
    1:06:20 Um, when I came to graduate school, uh, in Princeton, um, so John Conway was there at the time.
    1:06:21 He passed away a few years ago.
    1:06:27 But, uh, I remember one of the very first research talks I went to was a talk by Conway on what he called extreme proof.
    1:06:33 So Conway had just had this, this amazing way of thinking about all kinds of things in a, in a way that you wouldn’t normally think of.
    1:06:42 So, um, he thought of proofs themselves as occupying some sort of space, you know, so, so, um, if you want to prove something, let’s say that there’s infinitely many primes.
    1:06:45 Okay, there will be different proofs, but you could, you could rank them in different axes.
    1:06:50 Like some proofs are elegant, some proofs are long, some proofs are, uh, um, are elementary and so forth.
    1:06:52 Um, and so this is cloud.
    1:06:55 So the space of all proofs itself has some sort of shape.
    1:07:00 Um, and so he was interested in, in extreme points of this shape.
    1:07:08 Like out of all, all these proofs, what is one of those, the shortest at the expense of everything, everything else or, or the most elementary or, or whatever.
    1:07:12 Um, and so he gave some examples of well-known theorems.
    1:07:16 And then he would give what he thought was, was the extreme proof, um, in these different aspects.
    1:07:38 Um, um, I, I just found that really eyeopening, um, that, that, um, you know, it’s, it’s not just getting a proof for a result was interesting, but, but once you have that proof, you know, trying to, to, uh, to optimize it in various ways, um, that, that proof, um, uh, proofing itself had some craftsmanship to it.
    1:07:41 Um, it’s something for my writing style.
    1:07:49 Um, that, you know, like when you do your, your math assignments and as your undergraduate, your homework and so forth, you’re sort of encouraged to just write down any proof that works.
    1:07:50 Okay.
    1:07:50 Okay.
    1:07:53 And they hand it in, they get a, get a, get a, as long as it gets a tick mark, you, you move on.
    1:08:01 Um, but if you want your, your, your results to actually be influential and be read by people, um, it can’t just be correct.
    1:08:09 It should also, um, be a pleasure to read, you know, um, motivated, um, be adaptable to, to generalize to other things.
    1:08:12 Um, it’s the same in many other disciplines, like, like coding.
    1:08:14 And there’s a, uh, there’s a lot of analogies between math and coding.
    1:08:16 I like analogies if you haven’t noticed.
    1:08:28 Um, but, um, you know, like you can code something spaghettical that works for a certain task and it’s quick and dirty and it works, but, uh, there’s lots of good principles for, for, um, writing a code.
    1:08:32 Well, so that other people can use it, build upon it and so on and has fewer bugs and whatever.
    1:08:37 Um, and there’s similar things with mathematics, so.
    1:08:45 Yeah, the, first of all, there’s so many beautiful things there and Kama is one of the great minds, uh, in mathematics ever and computer science.
    1:08:49 Uh, just even considering the space of proofs.
    1:08:49 Yeah.
    1:08:54 And saying, okay, what does this space look like and what are the extremes?
    1:09:01 Uh, like you mentioned, coding is an analogy is interesting because there’s also this activity called, uh, code golf.
    1:09:02 Oh yeah, yeah, yeah.
    1:09:11 Which I also find beautiful and fun, uh, where people use different programming languages to try to write the shortest possible program that accomplishes a particular task.
    1:09:11 Yeah.
    1:09:13 And I believe there’s even competitions on this.
    1:09:14 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
    1:09:25 And, uh, it’s also a nice way to stress test, not just the, sort of the programs or in this case, the proofs,
    1:09:31 but also the different languages, maybe that’s a different notation or whatever to use to, to accomplish a different task.
    1:09:31 Yeah, you learn a lot.
    1:09:42 I mean, it may seem like a frivolous exercise, but it can generate all these insights, which if you didn’t have this artificial, um, objective to, to, to pursue, you, you might not see.
    1:09:47 What do you use the most beautiful or elegant equation in mathematics?
    1:09:53 I mean, one of the things that people often look to in, in beauty is the simplicity.
    1:10:04 So if you look at E equals MC squared, so when, when a few concepts come together, that’s why the Euler identity is often considered, uh, the most beautiful equation in mathematics.
    1:10:08 Do you, do you find beauty in that one, in the Euler identity?
    1:10:08 Yeah.
    1:10:16 Well, as I said, I mean, what I find most appealing is, is connections between different things that you, um, so the, if you, uh, if the pi i equals minus one.
    1:10:19 Um, so yeah, people are, oh, these are all the fundamental constants.
    1:10:19 Okay.
    1:10:21 That, that, that’s, I mean, that’s cute.
    1:10:37 Um, but, but to me, so the exponential function was, or to measure exponential growth, you know, so the compound interest or decay, you know, anything which is continuously growing, continuously decreasing growth and decay or dilation or contraction is modeled by the exponential function.
    1:10:42 Um, whereas pi, uh, comes around from circles and rotation, right?
    1:10:45 If you want to rotate a needle, for example, a hundred degrees, uh, you need to rotate by pi radians.
    1:10:53 And i, complex numbers, represents the swapping between you and imaginary axes, so a 90 degree rotation, so a change in direction.
    1:10:58 So the exponential function represents growth and decay in the direction that you already are.
    1:11:09 Um, when you stick an i in the exponential, now it’s, it’s, instead of motion in the same direction as your current position, it’s motion as a right angle as your current position, so rotation.
    1:11:17 Um, and then, so, e to pi equals minus one tells you that if you rotate for a time pi, you end up at the other direction.
    1:11:25 So it unifies geometry through dilation and exponential growth, or dynamics, through this act of, of complexification, rotation by, by, by, by i.
    1:11:28 So it, it, it connects together all these tools, mathematics, you know, yeah.
    1:11:36 That thing was geometry and complex and complex and, um, the complex numbers, they’re all considered almost, yeah, they’re all next door neighbors in mathematics because of this identity.
    1:11:46 Do you, do you think the thing you mentioned is cute, the, the, the, the collision of notations from these disparate fields, um, is just a frivolous side effect?
    1:11:53 Or do you think there is legitimate, like, value in one notation, all the, our old friends come together in the night?
    1:11:56 Right, well, it’s, it’s, it’s confirmation that you have the right concepts.
    1:12:11 Um, so, when you first study anything, um, you, you have to measure things and give them names, um, and initially, sometimes, you’re, because your, your model is, again, too far off from reality, you give the wrong things the best names.
    1:12:14 And you only find out later what’s, what’s really important.
    1:12:15 Physicists can do this sometimes.
    1:12:17 I mean, but it turns out, okay.
    1:12:22 So, actually, with physics, so, e equals mc squared, okay, so, uh, one of the, the big things was the e, right?
    1:12:31 So, when, when Aristotle first came up with his laws of, of motion and then, and then, um, Galileo and Newton and so forth, you know, they saw the things they could, they could measure.
    1:12:34 They could measure mass and acceleration and force and so forth.
    1:12:39 And so, Newtonian mechanics, for example, you know, I think it was MA was the famous, uh, Newton’s second law of motion.
    1:12:41 So, those were the, the primary objects.
    1:12:43 So, they gave them the central billing in the theory.
    1:12:50 It was only later, after people started analyzing these equations, that there always seemed to be these quantities that were conserved.
    1:12:52 Um, so, in particular, momentum and energy.
    1:12:57 Um, uh, and it’s not obvious that things happen in energy.
    1:13:01 Like, it’s not something you can directly measure the same way you can measure mass and, and, and velocity and so forth.
    1:13:04 But over time, people realized that this was actually a really fundamental concept.
    1:13:14 Hamilton, eventually, in the 19th century, reformulated Newton’s laws of physics into what’s called Hamiltonian mechanics, where the energy, which is now called the Hamiltonian, was the dominant object.
    1:13:21 Once you know how to measure the Hamiltonian of any system, you can describe completely the dynamics, like what happens to all the states.
    1:13:25 Like, it’s, um, it, it really was a central actor, which was not obvious initially.
    1:13:33 Um, and this, uh, helped actually, uh, this change of perspective really helped when quantum mechanics came along.
    1:13:46 Uh, because, um, the early physicists who studied quantum mechanics, they had a lot of trouble trying to adapt their Newtonian thinking, because, you know, everything was a particle and so forth to, to, to quantum mechanics.
    1:13:55 Um, and, um, and, um, but, um, but again, once you specify it, you specify the entire dynamics, you know, and it’s really, really hard to, to give an answer to that.
    1:14:09 Um, but it turns out that the Hamiltonian, which was so, um, secretly behind the scenes in classical mechanics, also is the key, uh, object in, um, um, um, in quantum mechanics, that there’s, there’s also an object called Hamiltonian.
    1:14:10 It’s a different type of object.
    1:14:12 It’s what’s called an operator rather than, than a function.
    1:14:16 But, um, and, um, but again, once you specify it, you specify the entire dynamics.
    1:14:22 So, there’s something called Schrodinger’s equation that tells you exactly how quantum systems evolve once you have the Hamiltonian.
    1:14:29 So, side by side, they look completely different objects, you know, like, so one involves particles, one involves waves, and so forth.
    1:14:35 But with this centrality, you could start actually transferring a lot of intuition and facts from classical mechanics to quantum mechanics.
    1:14:39 So, for example, in classical mechanics, there’s this thing called Noether’s theorem.
    1:14:43 Every time there’s a symmetry in a physical system, there is a conservation law.
    1:14:46 So, the laws of physics are translation invariant.
    1:14:52 Like, if I move 10 steps to the left, I experience the same laws of physics as if I was here, and that corresponds to conservation momentum.
    1:14:57 Um, if I turn around by, by some angle, again, I experience the same laws of physics.
    1:14:59 Uh, this corresponds to the conservation angle of momentum.
    1:15:03 If I wait for 10 minutes, um, I still have the same laws of physics.
    1:15:04 Um, so there’s time transition invariance.
    1:15:06 This corresponds to the law of conservation of energy.
    1:15:11 Um, so there’s this fundamental connection between symmetry and conservation.
    1:15:16 Um, and that’s also true in quantum mechanics, even though the equations are completely different.
    1:15:19 But because they’re both coming from the Hamiltonian, the Hamiltonian controls everything.
    1:15:23 Um, every time the Hamiltonian has a symmetry, the equations will have a conservation law.
    1:15:31 Um, so it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s, once you have the right language, it actually makes things, um, a lot, a lot cleaner.
    1:15:37 One of the points why we can’t unify quantum mechanics and general relativity yet, we haven’t figured out what the fundamental objects are.
    1:15:42 Like, for example, we have to give up the notion of space and time being these almost Euclidean type spaces.
    1:15:49 And it has to be, um, you know, and, you know, we kind of know that at very tiny scales, uh, um, there’s going to be quantum fluctuations.
    1:15:56 There’s a space, space, time foam, um, and trying to, to use Cartesian coordinates X, Y, Z is going to be, it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s a non-starter.
    1:16:05 But we don’t know how to, what to replace it with, um, we don’t actually have the mathematical, um, um, concepts.
    1:16:08 The analog or Hamiltonian that sort of organized everything.
    1:16:18 Does your gut say that there is a theory of everything, so this is even possible to unify, to find this language that unifies general relativity and quantum mechanics?
    1:16:19 I believe so.
    1:16:24 I mean, the history of physics has been that of unification, much like mathematics, um, over the years.
    1:16:28 You know, electricity and magnetism were separate theories, and then Maxwell unified them.
    1:16:33 You know, Newton unified the motions of the heavens for the motions of objects on the earth and so forth.
    1:16:35 So it should happen.
    1:16:41 It’s just that the, um, uh, again, to go back to this model of the observations and theory.
    1:16:44 Part of our problem is that physics is a victim of its own success.
    1:16:51 That our two big theories of, of, of physics, general relativity and quantum mechanics are so, are so good now.
    1:17:10 So together, they cover 99.9% of sort of all the observations we can make, um, and you have to, like, either go to extremely insane particle accelerations or, or the early universe or, or things that are really hard to measure, um, in order to get any deviation from either of these two theories to the point where you can actually figure out how to, how to combine them together.
    1:17:18 Um, but I have faith that we, you know, we’ve, we’ve, we’ve been doing this for centuries and we’ve made progress before and there’s no reason why we should stop.
    1:17:23 Do you think you will be a mathematician that develops a theory of everything?
    1:17:35 What often happens is that when the physicists need, uh, um, some theory of mathematics, there’s often some precursor that the mathematicians, um, worked out earlier.
    1:17:45 So when Einstein started realizing that space was curved, he went to some mathematician and asked, you know, is there, is there some theory of curved space that the mathematicians already came up with that could be useful?
    1:17:48 And he said, oh yeah, there’s a, I think, uh, Riemann came up with something.
    1:18:00 Um, and so yeah, Riemann had developed Riemannian geometry, um, which is precisely, um, you know, a theory of spaces that are curved in, in various general ways, which turned out to be almost exactly what was needed, um, for Einstein’s theory.
    1:18:03 This is going back to Wiggins’ unreasonable effectiveness on mathematics.
    1:18:11 I think the theories that work well if they explain the universe tend to also involve the same mathematical objects that work well to solve mathematical problems.
    1:18:14 Ultimately, they’re just sort of both ways of organizing data.
    1:18:16 Um, in, in, in, in, in useful ways.
    1:18:22 It just feels like you might need to go to some weird land that’s very hard to, to intuit.
    1:18:24 Like, you know, you have like string theory.
    1:18:27 Yeah, that, that’s, that was, that was a leading candidate for many decades.
    1:18:32 I think it’s slowly pulling out of fashion because it’s, it’s not matching experiment.
    1:18:37 So one of the big challenges, of course, like you said, is experiment is very tough.
    1:18:37 Yes.
    1:18:41 Because of the, how effective both theories are.
    1:18:49 But the other is like, just, you know, you’re talking about, you’re not just deviating from space-time.
    1:18:51 You’re going into like some crazy number of dimensions.
    1:18:52 Yeah.
    1:18:58 You’re doing all kinds of weird stuff that, to us, we’ve gone so far from this flat earth that we started at.
    1:19:09 And now we’re just, it’s, it’s very hard to use our limited descendants of, uh, uh, cognition to intuit what that reality really is like.
    1:19:16 This is why analogies are so important, you know, I mean, so yeah, the round earth is not intuitive because we’re stuck on it.
    1:19:23 Um, but you know, but you, you, you, you know, but round objects in general, we have pretty good intuition over, uh, and we have intuition about light works and so forth.
    1:19:35 And like, it’s, it’s actually a good exercise to actually work out how eclipses and phases of, of the sun and the moon and so forth that can be really easily explained by, by, by, by round earth and round moon, you know, um, and models.
    1:19:42 Um, and, and you can just take, you know, a basketball and a golf ball and a, and a light source and actually do these things yourself.
    1:19:46 Um, so the intuition is there, um, but yeah, you have to transfer it.
    1:19:54 That is a big leap intellectual for us to go to from flat to round earth because, you know, our life is mostly lived in flat land.
    1:19:55 Yeah.
    1:19:56 To load that information.
    1:19:57 And we’re all like, take it for granted.
    1:20:03 We take so many things for granted because science has established a lot of evidence for this kind of thing.
    1:20:06 But, you know, we’re in a round rock.
    1:20:07 Yeah.
    1:20:09 Flying through space.
    1:20:09 Yeah.
    1:20:10 Yeah.
    1:20:11 That’s a big leap.
    1:20:15 And you have to take a chain of those leaps the more and more and more we progress.
    1:20:15 Right.
    1:20:15 Yeah.
    1:20:24 So modern science is maybe, again, a victim of its own success is that, you know, in order to be more accurate, it has to, to move further and further away from your initial intuition.
    1:20:30 And so, um, for someone who hasn’t gone through the whole process of science education, it looks more and more suspicious because of that.
    1:20:33 So, you know, we, we, we need, we need more grounding.
    1:20:41 I mean, I think, um, I mean, you know, there are, there are scientists who do excellent outreach, um, but there’s, there’s, there’s, there’s, there’s, there’s, there’s lots of science things that you can do at home.
    1:20:42 I mean, there’s lots of YouTube videos.
    1:20:50 I did a YouTube video recently with Grant Sanderson that we talked about earlier that, uh, you know, how the ancient Greeks were able to measure things like the distance to the moon, distance to the earth.
    1:20:54 And, you know, using techniques that you could, you could also replicate yourself.
    1:21:00 Um, it doesn’t all have to be like fancy space telescopes and, and very intimidating mathematics.
    1:21:01 Yeah.
    1:21:02 That’s, uh, I highly recommend that.
    1:21:06 I believe you give a lecture and you also did an incredible video with Grant.
    1:21:14 It’s a beautiful experience to try to put yourself in the mind of a person from that time shrouded in mystery.
    1:21:14 Right.
    1:21:19 You know, you’re like on this planet, you don’t know the shape of it, the size of it.
    1:21:24 You see some stars, you see some, you see some things and you try to like localize yourself in this world.
    1:21:25 Yeah.
    1:21:25 Yeah.
    1:21:28 And try to make some kind of general statements about distance to places.
    1:21:30 Change of perspective is really important.
    1:21:31 You say travel burdens the mind.
    1:21:36 This is intellectual travel, you know, put yourself in the mind of the ancient Greeks or, or some other.
    1:21:42 Put some, some other time period, make hypotheses, spherical cows, whatever, you know, speculate.
    1:21:47 Um, and you know, this is, this is what mathematicians do and some artists do actually.
    1:21:52 It’s just incredible that given the extreme constraints, you could still say very powerful things.
    1:21:54 That’s why it’s inspiring.
    1:22:01 Looking back in history, how much can be figured out when you don’t have much to figure out stuff with.
    1:22:05 If you propose axioms, then the mathematics lets you follow those axioms to their conclusions.
    1:22:09 And sometimes you can get quite a lot, quite a long way from, you know, initial hypotheses.
    1:22:12 If we stay in the land of the weird, you mentioned general relativity.
    1:22:18 You’ve, uh, you’ve contributed, uh, to the mathematical understanding of Einstein’s field equations.
    1:22:19 Can you explain this work?
    1:22:30 And, uh, from a sort of mathematical standpoint, uh, what, what aspects of general relativity are intriguing to you, challenging to you?
    1:22:32 I have worked on some equations.
    1:22:44 There’s something called the, the wave maps equation, or the sigma field model, which is not quite the equation of space-time gravity itself, but of certain fields that might exist on top of space-time.
    1:22:51 Um, so, uh, Einstein’s equations of relativity just describes space and time itself, um, but then there’s other fields that live on top of that.
    1:23:01 Uh, there’s the electromagnetic field, um, there’s, uh, things called Yang-Mills fields, and there’s this whole hierarchy of different equations, of which Einstein is considered one of the most nonlinear and difficult.
    1:23:05 But, uh, relatively low on the hierarchy was this thing called the wave maps equation.
    1:23:10 So, it’s a wave which, at any given point, uh, is fixed to be, like, on a sphere.
    1:23:17 Um, so, uh, I can think of a bunch of arrows in space and time, and, and, and, and, and, yeah, so it’s pointing in, in different directions.
    1:23:19 Um, but they propagate like waves.
    1:23:26 If, if, if you wiggle an arrow, it will propagate and create and make all the arrows move, kind of like, uh, sheaves of wheat in the wheat field.
    1:23:34 And I was interested in the global regularity problem, again, for this question, like, is it possible for, for all the energy here to, to, to, to collect at a point?
    1:23:40 So, the equation I considered was actually what’s called a critical equation, where it’s actually, the behavior at all scales is roughly the same.
    1:23:48 Um, and I was able barely to show that, um, that you couldn’t actually force a scenario where all the energy concentrated at one point.
    1:23:53 That the energy had to disperse a little bit, and the moment it disperse a little bit, it would, it would, it would, it would stay regular.
    1:23:55 Yeah, this was back in 2000.
    1:23:58 That was part of why I got interested in Larry Stokes afterwards, actually.
    1:24:02 Yeah, so, I developed some techniques to, um, to solve that problem.
    1:24:07 So, part of it is, it was, um, this problem is really non-linear, uh, because of the curvature of the sphere.
    1:24:12 Um, there’s, there was a certain non-linear effect, which was a non-perturbative effect.
    1:24:17 It was, when you sort of looked at it normally, it looked larger than the linear effects of the wave equation.
    1:24:22 Um, and so, it was hard to, to keep things under control, even when the energy was small.
    1:24:24 But I developed what’s called a gauge transformation.
    1:24:30 So, the equation is kind of like an evolution of, of, of sheaves of wheat, and they’re all bending back and forth.
    1:24:32 And so, there’s a lot of motion.
    1:24:41 Um, but like, if you imagine, like, stabilizing the flow by attaching little cameras at different points in space, which are trying to move in a way that captures most of the motion.
    1:24:45 Um, and under this sort of stabilized flow, the flow becomes a lot more linear.
    1:24:52 I discovered a way to transform the, the equation to reduce the amount of non-linear effects.
    1:24:55 Um, and then I was able to, to, to, to solve the equation.
    1:25:03 I found this transformation while visiting my aunt in Australia, and I was trying to understand the dynamics of all these fields, and I, I couldn’t do it with pen and paper.
    1:25:07 Um, and I had not enough facility for computers to do any computer simulations.
    1:25:21 So, I ended up closing my eyes, being on, on the floor, and just imagining myself to actually be the specter field, and rolling around to try to, to see how to change coordinates in such a way that somehow things in all directions would behave in a reasonably linear fashion.
    1:25:27 And, uh, yeah, my aunt walked in on me while I was doing that, and she was asking, what am I, what am I doing, doing this?
    1:25:29 It’s complicated, is the answer.
    1:25:32 Yeah, yeah, and, you know, she said, okay, fine, you know, you’re a young man, I don’t ask questions.
    1:25:39 I, I, I have to ask about the, you know, um, how do you approach solving difficult problems?
    1:25:51 What, if it’s possible to go inside your mind when you’re thinking, are you visualizing in your mind the mathematical objects?
    1:25:52 Symbols, maybe?
    1:25:56 What are you visualizing in your mind usually when you’re thinking?
    1:25:57 Um, a lot of pen and paper.
    1:26:02 One thing you pick up as a mathematician is sort of, uh, I call it cheating strategically.
    1:26:10 Um, so, uh, the, the beauty of mathematics is that, is that you get to change the rule, change the problem, change the rules as you wish.
    1:26:13 Uh, like this, you don’t get to do this for any other field.
    1:26:20 Like, you know, if, if you’re an engineer and someone says, build a bridge over this river, you can’t say, I want to build this bridge over here instead, or I want to build it out of paper instead of steel.
    1:26:23 Um, but, um, you can, you can, you can do whatever you want.
    1:26:31 Um, it’s, it’s like trying to solve a computer game where you can, there’s unlimited cheat codes available.
    1:26:37 Uh, and so, you know, you, you, you can, you can set this, there’s a dimension that’s large.
    1:26:38 I’ll set it to one.
    1:26:39 I’d solve the one-dimensional problem first.
    1:26:41 There’s a main term and an error term.
    1:26:43 I’m going to make a spherical car assumption.
    1:26:44 I’ll assume the error term is zero.
    1:26:49 And so the way you should solve these problems is, is not in sort of this Ironman mode where
    1:26:50 you make things maximally difficult.
    1:26:56 Um, but actually the way you should, you should approach any reasonable math problem is that
    1:27:00 you, if there are 10 things that are making life difficult, find a version of the problem
    1:27:02 that turns off nine of the difficulties, but only keeps one of them.
    1:27:08 Um, and so that, um, and then that just figured, so you, you, you, you install nine cheats.
    1:27:09 Okay.
    1:27:12 If you saw 10 cheats, then, then the game is trivial, but you saw nine cheats, you solve
    1:27:15 one problem that, that, that, that, that, that teaches you how to deal with that particular
    1:27:16 difficulty.
    1:27:19 And then you turn that one off and you turn someone else, something else on, and then you
    1:27:20 solve that one.
    1:27:24 And after you, you know how to solve the 10 problems, 10 difficulties separately, then you
    1:27:26 have to start merging them a few at a time.
    1:27:32 Um, I, I, as a kid, I watched a lot of these Hong Kong action movies, um, from my
    1:27:33 culture.
    1:27:37 Um, and, uh, one thing is that every time it’s a fight scene, you know, so maybe the
    1:27:43 hero gets swarmed by a hundred bad guy goons or whatever, but it will always be choreographed
    1:27:46 so that you’d always be only fighting one person at a time and then it would defeat that person
    1:27:47 and move on.
    1:27:50 And, and because of that, they could, they could defeat all of them.
    1:27:50 Right.
    1:27:55 But whereas if they had fought a bit more intelligently and just swarmed the guy at once, uh, it would
    1:28:00 make for much, uh, much worse choreo, uh, cinema, but, uh, but they would win.
    1:28:04 Are you usually a pen and paper?
    1:28:07 Are you working, uh, with computer and LaTeX?
    1:28:09 I’m mostly pen and paper actually.
    1:28:11 So in my office, I have four giant blackboards.
    1:28:16 Um, and sometimes I just have to write everything I know about the problem on the four blackboards
    1:28:19 and then sit my couch and just sort of see the whole thing.
    1:28:23 Is it all symbols like notation or is there some drawings?
    1:28:27 Oh, there’s a lot of drawing and a lot of bespoke doodles that, uh, only makes sense to
    1:28:27 me.
    1:28:32 Um, I mean, and, and, and that’s the beauty of blackboards you raise and it’s, it’s, it’s,
    1:28:33 it’s very organic thing.
    1:28:38 Um, I’m beginning to use more and more computers, um, partly because AI makes it much easier
    1:28:43 to do simple coding things that, you know, if I wanted to plot a function before, which
    1:28:46 is moderately complicated as an iteration or something, you know, I’d have to, to remember
    1:28:50 how to set up a Python program and, and, and, and, and, and how does a for loop work and,
    1:28:53 and, and debug it and it would take two hours and so forth.
    1:28:58 And, and now I can do it in 10, 15 minutes as much, um, yeah, I’m, I’m using more and
    1:29:00 more, uh, computers to do simple explorations.
    1:29:03 Let’s talk about AI a little bit if we could.
    1:29:09 So, um, maybe a good entry point is just talking about computer assisted proofs in general.
    1:29:18 Can you describe the lean formal proof programming language and how it can help as a proof assistant
    1:29:24 and maybe how you started using it and how, uh, it has helped you.
    1:29:31 So, um, lean is a computer language, um, much like sort of standard languages like Python and C and so forth.
    1:29:36 Except that in most languages, the focus is on producing executable code.
    1:29:41 Lines of code do things, you know, they, they flip bits or they make a robot move or, or they, they deliver
    1:29:43 your text on the internet or something.
    1:29:46 Um, so lean is a language that can also do that.
    1:29:51 Uh, it can also be run as a standard, uh, traditional language, but it can also produce
    1:29:52 certificates.
    1:29:56 So a software language like Python might do a computation and give you the answer is seven.
    1:29:56 Okay.
    1:30:01 Then it does the sum of three plus four is equal to seven, but, uh, lean can produce not just
    1:30:05 the answer, but, but a proof that, uh, how it got the, the answer of seven as three plus
    1:30:11 four, uh, and all the steps involved in, in, in, in, in, um, so it’s, so it creates these
    1:30:14 more complicated objects, not just statements, but statements with proofs attached to them.
    1:30:20 Um, and, um, every line of code is just a way of piecing together previous statements
    1:30:21 to, to create new ones.
    1:30:23 So the idea is not new.
    1:30:24 These things are called proof assistance.
    1:30:29 And so they provide languages for which you can create quite complicated, um, intricate,
    1:30:30 um, mathematical proofs.
    1:30:37 And, um, they produce these certificates that give a 100% guarantee that your arguments are
    1:30:37 correct.
    1:30:42 If you trust the compiler of lean, but they made the compiler really small and you can,
    1:30:43 there are several different compilers available for the same.
    1:30:49 Can you give people some intuition about the, the difference between writing on pen and paper
    1:30:52 versus using lean programming language?
    1:30:55 How hard is it to formalize a statement?
    1:30:59 So lean, a lot of mathematicians were involved in the design of lean.
    1:31:05 So it’s, it’s designed so that, um, individual lines of code resemble individual lines of
    1:31:05 mathematical argument.
    1:31:07 Like you might want to introduce a variable.
    1:31:08 You want to, want to prove that contradiction.
    1:31:13 You want your, um, um, there are various standard things that you can do and, and it’s, it’s
    1:31:13 written.
    1:31:17 So ideally it should like a one-to-one correspondence in practice.
    1:31:22 It isn’t because lean is like explaining a proof to extremely pedantic colleague who will,
    1:31:24 will point out, okay, did you really mean this?
    1:31:26 Like what, what happens if this is zero?
    1:31:26 Okay.
    1:31:28 Um, did you, how do you justify this?
    1:31:34 Um, so lean has a lot of automation in it, um, to try to, to, uh, to be less annoying.
    1:31:38 Um, so for example, um, every mathematical object has to come of a type.
    1:31:45 Like if I, if I talk about X, is X a real number or, um, a natural number or, or a function
    1:31:45 or something?
    1:31:50 Um, if you write things informally, um, it’s often in some context.
    1:31:56 You say, you know, um, clearly X is equal to, uh, let X be the sum of Y and Z and Y and
    1:31:57 Z were already real numbers.
    1:31:58 So X should also be a real number.
    1:32:00 Um, so lean can do a lot of that.
    1:32:05 Um, but every so often it says, wait a minute, uh, can you tell me more about what this object
    1:32:07 is, uh, what, what type of object it is?
    1:32:12 You have to think more, um, at a philosophical level, well, not just sort of computations
    1:32:16 that you’re doing, but sort of what each object actually, um, is in some sense.
    1:32:22 Is he using something like LLMs to do, uh, the type inference or like you mentioned with
    1:32:22 a real number?
    1:32:26 It’s, it’s using much more traditional, what’s called good old fashioned AI.
    1:32:29 You can represent all these things as trees and there’s always algorithm to match one tree
    1:32:30 to another tree.
    1:32:36 So it’s actually doable to figure out if something is, uh, a real number or a natural number.
    1:32:39 Every object sort of comes with a history of where it came from and you can, you can kind
    1:32:39 of trace.
    1:32:40 Oh, I see.
    1:32:41 Um, yeah.
    1:32:43 So it’s, it’s, it’s designed for reliability.
    1:32:47 So, uh, modern AIs are not used in, it’s a disjoint technology.
    1:32:50 People are beginning to use AIs on top of lean.
    1:32:55 So when a mathematician tries to program, um, improvement in lean, um, often there’s
    1:32:59 a step, okay, now I want to use, um, the fundamental calculus, say, okay, to do the next step.
    1:33:05 So the lean developers have built this, this massive project called Metholib, a collection
    1:33:08 of tens of thousands of useful facts about methodical objects.
    1:33:12 And somewhere in there is the fundamental calculus, but you need to find it.
    1:33:15 So a lot, the bottleneck now is actually lemma search.
    1:33:20 You know, there’s a tool that, that you know is in there somewhere and you need to find
    1:33:20 it.
    1:33:24 Um, and so you can, there are various search engines specialized for Metholib that you can
    1:33:24 do.
    1:33:28 Um, but there’s now these large language models that you can say, okay, um, I need the fundamental
    1:33:29 calculus at this point.
    1:33:34 And it was like, okay, um, uh, for example, um, when I code, I have GitHub Copilot installed
    1:33:39 as a plugin to my IDE and it scans my text and it sees what I need.
    1:33:41 It says, you know, I might even type it.
    1:33:43 Now I need to use the fundamental calculus.
    1:33:43 Okay.
    1:33:45 And then it might suggest, okay, try this.
    1:33:48 And like maybe 25% of the time it works exactly.
    1:33:49 And then another.
    1:33:53 10, 50% of the time it doesn’t quite work, but it’s close enough that I can say, oh yeah,
    1:33:55 if I just change it here and here, it will work.
    1:33:57 And then like half the time it gives me complete rubbish.
    1:34:02 Um, so, but people are beginning to use AIs a little bit on top.
    1:34:09 Um, mostly on the level of basically fancy autocomplete, um, that, uh, you can type half of one line
    1:34:10 of a proof and it will find, it will tell you.
    1:34:10 Yeah.
    1:34:16 But, but, but a fancy, especially fancy with the sort of capital letter F is, uh, uh, remove
    1:34:17 some of the friction.
    1:34:18 Yeah.
    1:34:22 What a mathematician might feel when they move from pen and paper to formalizing.
    1:34:23 Yes.
    1:34:23 Yeah.
    1:34:27 So right now I estimate that the effort, time and effort taken to formalize a proof is about
    1:34:29 10 times the amount taken to, to write it out.
    1:34:30 Yeah.
    1:34:35 So it’s doable, but, uh, you don’t, it’s, it’s annoying.
    1:34:38 But doesn’t it like kill the whole vibe of being a mathematician?
    1:34:39 Yeah.
    1:34:42 So, I mean, having a pedantic coworker, right?
    1:34:42 Yeah.
    1:34:44 If that was the only aspect of it.
    1:34:44 Okay.
    1:34:46 But, um, okay.
    1:34:49 So there’s some, there’s some cases where it’s actually more pleasant to do things formally.
    1:34:54 So there was a theorem I formalized and there was a certain constant 12, um, that, that
    1:34:56 came out at, um, in, in the final statement.
    1:34:57 And so this 12 had to be carried all through the proof.
    1:35:00 Um, and like everything had to be checked.
    1:35:03 I did go through all the, all these other numbers that had to be consistent with this
    1:35:04 final number 12.
    1:35:07 And then, so we wrote a paper through this theorem with this number 12.
    1:35:10 And then a few weeks later, someone said, oh, we can actually improve this 12 to an 11
    1:35:12 by reworking some of these steps.
    1:35:16 And when this happens with pen and paper, um, like every time you change a parameter, you
    1:35:20 have to check line by line that every single line of your proof still works.
    1:35:23 And there can be subtle things that you didn’t quite realize some properties on number
    1:35:25 12 that you didn’t even realize that you were taking advantage of.
    1:35:27 So a proof can break down at a subtle place.
    1:35:31 Um, so we had formalized the proof with this constant 12.
    1:35:35 And then when this, this new paper came out, uh, we said, oh, let’s, uh, so that took like
    1:35:39 three weeks to formalize, uh, and like 20 people to formalize this, this, this original proof.
    1:35:44 I said, oh, but now let’s, let’s, um, uh, uh, let’s update the 12 to 11.
    1:35:49 And what you can do with lean, so you just, in your headline theorem, you change the 12 to 11,
    1:35:54 you run the compiler and like of the thousands of lines of code you have, 90% of them still
    1:35:55 work.
    1:35:57 And there’s a couple that are lined in red.
    1:36:01 Now I can’t justify these steps, but it immediately isolates which steps you need to change, but you
    1:36:03 can skip over everything, which, which works just fine.
    1:36:09 Um, and if you program things correctly, um, with good programming practices, most of your
    1:36:09 lines will not be read.
    1:36:14 Um, and there’ll just be a few places where you, I mean, if you don’t hard code your constants,
    1:36:18 but you sort of, uh, um, um, you use smart tactics and so forth.
    1:36:22 Uh, you can, you can, you can localize, um, the things you need to change to, to a very
    1:36:24 small, um, period of time.
    1:36:28 So it’s like within a day or two, we had updated our proof because this is very quick process.
    1:36:30 You, um, you make a change.
    1:36:33 There are 10 things now that don’t work for each one.
    1:36:36 You make a change and now there’s five more things that don’t work, but, but the process
    1:36:39 converges much more smoothly than with pen and paper.
    1:36:40 So that’s for writing.
    1:36:41 Are you able to read it?
    1:36:46 Like if somebody else has a proof, are you able to like, how, what’s, what’s the, uh, versus
    1:36:47 paper?
    1:36:47 Yeah.
    1:36:52 So the proofs are longer, but each individual piece is easier to read.
    1:36:58 So, um, if you take a math paper and you jump to page 27 and you look at paragraph six and
    1:37:04 you have a line of, of, of text or math, I often can’t read it immediately because it assumes
    1:37:08 various definitions, which I had to go back and, and maybe on 10 pages earlier, this was
    1:37:12 defined and this, um, the proof is scattered all over the place and you basically are forced
    1:37:13 to read fairly sequentially.
    1:37:19 Um, it’s, it’s not like say a novel where like, you know, in theory, you could open up
    1:37:20 a novel halfway through and start reading.
    1:37:24 There’s a lot of context, but when a proof and lean, if you put your cursor on a line of
    1:37:29 code, every single object there, you can hover over it and it would say what it is, where it
    1:37:30 came from, where the stuff is justified.
    1:37:34 You can trace things back much easier than sort of flipping through a math paper.
    1:37:39 So one thing that lean really enables is actually collaborating on proofs at a really atomic
    1:37:41 scale that you really couldn’t do in the past.
    1:37:45 So traditionally a pen and paper, um, when you want to collaborate with another mathematician,
    1:37:50 um, either you do it at a blackboard where you, um, you can really interact, but if you’re
    1:37:54 doing it sort of by email or something, um, basically, yeah, you have to segment it.
    1:37:58 So I’m going to, I’m going to finish section three, you do section four, but, uh, you can’t
    1:38:02 really sort of work on the same thing, uh, collaborative at the same time.
    1:38:06 But with lean, you can be trying to formalize some portion of the proof and say, oh, I got
    1:38:07 stuck at line 67 here.
    1:38:10 I need to prove this thing, but it doesn’t quite work.
    1:38:12 Here’s the, like the three lines of code I’m having trouble with.
    1:38:16 Um, but because all the context is there, someone else can say, oh, okay, I recognize what you
    1:38:17 need to do.
    1:38:22 You need to apply this trick or this tool and you can do extremely atomic level conversations.
    1:38:27 So because of lean, I can collaborate, you know, with dozens of people across the world.
    1:38:29 Most of them I don’t, have never met in person.
    1:38:34 Um, and I may not know actually even whether they’re, um, how reliable they are in, in,
    1:38:38 in their, um, um, in, in the proof they give me, but lean gives me a certificate of, of,
    1:38:39 of trust.
    1:38:42 Um, so I can do, I can do trustless mathematics.
    1:38:44 So there’s so many interesting questions.
    1:38:49 There’s one, you’re, you’re known for being a great collaborator.
    1:38:56 So what is the right way to approach solving a difficult problem in mathematics when you’re
    1:38:57 collaborating?
    1:39:02 Are you doing a divide and conquer type of thing or are you brains, are you focused on
    1:39:05 a particular part and you’re brainstorming?
    1:39:07 There’s always a brainstorming process first.
    1:39:07 Yeah.
    1:39:12 So math research projects sort of by their nature, when you start, you don’t really know how to
    1:39:13 do the problem.
    1:39:17 Um, it’s not like an engineering project where somehow the theory has been established for
    1:39:20 decades and it’s implementation is the main difficulty.
    1:39:22 You have to figure out even what is the right path.
    1:39:27 So, so this is what I said about, about cheating first, you know, um, it’s like, um, to go
    1:39:31 back to the bridge building analogy, you know, so first assume you have infinite budget and
    1:39:34 like unlimited amounts of, of, of, of workforce and so forth.
    1:39:35 Now can you, can you build this bridge?
    1:39:35 Okay.
    1:39:36 Okay.
    1:39:38 Now have infinite budget, but only finite workforce.
    1:39:39 All right.
    1:39:39 Now can you do that?
    1:39:40 And so what?
    1:39:45 Um, so, uh, I mean, of course, no, no engineer can actually do this.
    1:39:47 Like I said, you have fixed requirements.
    1:39:47 Yes.
    1:39:52 There’s this sort of jam sessions or at the beginning where you try all kinds of crazy things and
    1:39:55 you, you, you make all these assumptions that are unrealistic, but you plan to fix later.
    1:40:01 Um, and you try to see if there’s even some skeleton of an approach that might work.
    1:40:06 Um, and then hopefully that breaks up the problem into smaller sub problems, which you don’t know
    1:40:09 how to do, but then you, uh, you focus on, on the sub ones.
    1:40:13 And sometimes different collaborators are better at, at working on, on certain things.
    1:40:18 Um, so one of my theorems I’m known for is a theorem of Ben Green, which is now called
    1:40:19 the Green Tau theorem.
    1:40:23 Um, it’s a statement that the primes contain algorithmic progressions of any length.
    1:40:25 So it was a modification of this theorem already.
    1:40:30 And the way we collaborated was that Ben had already proven a similar result for progressions
    1:40:31 of length three.
    1:40:35 Um, he showed that sets like the primes contain lots and lots of progressions of length three.
    1:40:39 Um, even, and even, um, subsets of the prime, certain subsets do.
    1:40:43 Um, but his techniques only worked for, um, for length three progressions.
    1:40:44 They didn’t work for longer progressions.
    1:40:49 Um, but I had these techniques coming from a gothic theory, which is something that I had
    1:40:52 been playing with and, and, uh, I knew better than Ben at the time.
    1:40:58 Um, and so, um, if I could justify certain randomness properties of some set relating to
    1:41:03 the primes, like there’s, there’s a certain technical condition, which if I could have it,
    1:41:06 if Ben could supply me this fact, I could give, I could conclude the theorem.
    1:41:12 But I, what I asked was a really difficult question in number theory, which, um, he said,
    1:41:13 no, there’s no way we can prove this.
    1:41:17 Can you, so he said, can you prove your part of the theorem using a weaker hypothesis that
    1:41:18 I have a chance to prove it?
    1:41:21 And he proposed something which he could prove, but it was too weak for me.
    1:41:23 Uh, I can’t use this.
    1:41:28 Um, so there’s this, there was this conversation going back and forth, um, it’s sort of a
    1:41:29 different cheats too.
    1:41:29 Yeah.
    1:41:30 Yeah.
    1:41:31 I want to cheat more.
    1:41:31 He wants to cheat less.
    1:41:32 Yeah.
    1:41:37 Uh, but eventually we found a, a, a, a, a, a property, which a, he could prove in B I could
    1:41:37 use.
    1:41:39 Um, and then we, we could prove our view.
    1:41:44 Uh, and, um, yeah, so there’s, there’s, there’s a, there are all kinds of dynamics, you
    1:41:44 know?
    1:41:49 I mean, it’s, it’s, it’s every, every, um, collaboration has a, has a, has some story.
    1:41:50 It’s no two of the same.
    1:41:55 And then on the flip side of that, like you mentioned with lean programming, now that’s
    1:42:00 almost like a different story because you can do, you can create, I think you’ve mentioned
    1:42:07 a kind of a blueprint for a problem and then you can really do a divide and conquer with lean
    1:42:13 where you’re working on separate parts and they’re using the computer system proof
    1:42:16 checker essentially to make sure that everything is correct along the way.
    1:42:19 So it makes everything compatible and, uh, yeah, and trustable.
    1:42:20 Um, yeah.
    1:42:26 So currently only a few mathematical projects can be cut up in this way at the current state
    1:42:26 of the art.
    1:42:30 Most of the lean activity is on formalizing proofs that have already been proven by humans.
    1:42:34 A math paper basically is a boop, a blueprint in a sense.
    1:42:38 It is taking a difficult statement, like big theorem and breaking up into me a hundred little
    1:42:45 lemurs, um, but often not all written with enough detail that each one can be sort of directly
    1:42:45 formalized.
    1:42:52 A blueprint is like a really pedantically written version of a paper where every step is explained
    1:42:54 as, as much detail as, as, as possible.
    1:43:00 And to try and make each step kind of self-contained, um, and, or depending on only a very specific
    1:43:05 number of previous statements that have been proven so that each node of this blueprint
    1:43:08 graph that gets generated can be tackled independently of all the others.
    1:43:10 And you don’t even need to know how the whole thing works.
    1:43:14 Um, so it’s like a modern supply chain, you know, like if you want to create an iPhone or
    1:43:20 some other complicated object, um, no one person can, can build a single object, but you can
    1:43:24 have specialists who, who just, if they’re given some widgets from some other company, they
    1:43:26 can combine them together to form a slightly bigger widget.
    1:43:31 I think that’s a really exciting possibility because you can have, if you can find problems
    1:43:37 that could be broken down this way, then you can have, you know, thousands of contributors,
    1:43:37 right?
    1:43:37 Yes.
    1:43:38 They’ll be completely distributed.
    1:43:42 So I told you before about the split between theoretical and experimental mathematics.
    1:43:45 And right now, most mathematics is theoretical and only a tiny bit is experimental.
    1:43:50 I think the platform that lean and other software tools, uh, so, um, GitHub and things like
    1:43:56 that, um, allow, uh, they will allow experimental mathematics to be, to scale up, um, to a much
    1:43:57 greater degree than we can do now.
    1:44:04 So right now, if you want to, um, um, do any mathematical exploration, uh, of some mathematical
    1:44:06 pattern or something, you need some code to write out the pattern.
    1:44:10 And I mean, sometimes there are some computer algebra packages that help, but often it’s
    1:44:13 just one mathematician coding lots and lots of Python or whatever.
    1:44:19 And because coding is such an error prone activity, it’s not practical to allow other people
    1:44:23 to collaborate with you on writing a module for your code, because if one of the modules has
    1:44:25 a bug in it, the whole thing is unreliable.
    1:44:33 Um, so it’s, these are, uh, so you get these bespoke, uh, spaghetti code that written by non-professional
    1:44:37 programmers, but mathematicians, you know, and they’re clunky and, and, and slow.
    1:44:42 And, um, um, and so because of that, it’s, it’s, it’s hard to, to really mass produce
    1:44:43 experimental results.
    1:44:50 Um, but, um, yeah, but I think with lean, I mean, so I’m already starting some projects
    1:44:54 where we are not just experimenting with data, but experimenting with proofs.
    1:44:56 So I have this project called the Equational Theories Project.
    1:45:00 Basically, we generated about 22 million little problems in abstract algebra.
    1:45:02 Maybe I should back up and tell you what, what the project is.
    1:45:03 Okay.
    1:45:07 So abstract algebra studies operations like multiplication and addition and their abstract properties.
    1:45:08 Okay.
    1:45:10 So multiplication, for example, is commutative.
    1:45:12 X times Y is always Y times X, at least for numbers.
    1:45:14 Um, and it’s also associative.
    1:45:17 X times Y times Z is the same as X times Y times Z.
    1:45:23 Um, so, um, these operations obey some laws that don’t obey others.
    1:45:25 For example, X times X is not always equal to X.
    1:45:26 So that law is not always true.
    1:45:30 So given any, any operation, it obeys some laws and not others.
    1:45:36 Um, and so we generated about 4,000 of these possible laws of algebra that certain operations
    1:45:36 can satisfy.
    1:45:39 And our question is, which laws imply which other ones?
    1:45:43 Um, so for example, does commutativity imply associativity?
    1:45:47 And the answer is no, because it turns out you can describe an operation which obeys the
    1:45:49 commutative law, but doesn’t obey the associative law.
    1:45:53 So by producing an example, you can, you can show that commutativity does not imply associativity.
    1:45:57 But some other laws do imply other laws by substitution and so forth.
    1:45:59 Uh, and you can write down some, some algebraic proof.
    1:46:04 So we look at all the pairs between these 4,000 laws and there’s over 22, 22 million of these
    1:46:04 pairs.
    1:46:07 And for each pair, we ask, does this law imply this law?
    1:46:10 If so, give a, give, uh, give a proof.
    1:46:11 If not, give a counterexample.
    1:46:17 Um, so 22 million problems, each one of which you could give to like an undergraduate
    1:46:19 algebra student and they had a decent chance of solving the problem.
    1:46:23 Although there are a few, at least 22 million, there are like a hundred or so that are really
    1:46:24 quite hard.
    1:46:24 Okay.
    1:46:25 But a lot are easy.
    1:46:30 And the project was just to, to work out, to determine the entire graph, like, like which
    1:46:30 ones imply which other ones.
    1:46:32 That’s an incredible project, by the way.
    1:46:33 Such a good idea.
    1:46:37 Such a good test of the very thing we’ve been talking about on a scale that’s remarkable.
    1:46:37 Yeah.
    1:46:39 So it would not have been feasible.
    1:46:43 You know, I mean, the state of the art in the literature was like, you know, 15 equations
    1:46:46 and sort of how they imply, that’s sort of at the limit of what a human with pen and paper
    1:46:46 can do.
    1:46:48 So, so you need to scale it up.
    1:46:54 So you need to crowdsource, but you also need to trust all the, um, you know, I, I mean,
    1:46:57 no one person can check 22 million of these proofs.
    1:46:59 You need to be computerized.
    1:47:02 And so it only became possible with, with lean.
    1:47:05 Um, we were hoping to use a lot of AI as well.
    1:47:07 Um, so the project is almost complete.
    1:47:10 Um, so all these 22 million, all but two had been settled.
    1:47:15 Um, and, uh, well, actually, and of those two, uh, we have a pen and paper proof of the
    1:47:17 two, uh, and we were formalizing it.
    1:47:22 In fact, I was, this morning I was working on, um, so we’re almost done on this.
    1:47:23 Um, it’s incredible.
    1:47:23 Yeah.
    1:47:26 How many people were able to get, uh,
    1:47:30 which in mathematics is considered a huge number.
    1:47:31 It’s a huge number.
    1:47:32 That’s crazy.
    1:47:32 Yeah.
    1:47:37 So we’re going to have a paper of 50 authors, uh, and a big appendix of food contributor.
    1:47:37 What?
    1:47:41 Here’s an interesting question, not to maybe speak even more generally about it.
    1:47:48 When you have this pool of people, is there a way to, uh, organize the contributions by level
    1:47:50 of expertise of the people, of the contributors?
    1:47:51 Now, okay.
    1:47:56 Uh, I’m asking a lot of pothead questions here, but I’m imagining.
    1:47:59 A bunch of humans, and maybe in the future, some AIs.
    1:48:06 Can there be, like, an ELO rating type of situation where, like, a gamification of this?
    1:48:10 The beauty of, of these lean projects is that automatically you get all this data, you know?
    1:48:14 So, like, like, everything’s uploaded to this GitHub, and GitHub tracks who contributed what.
    1:48:20 Um, so you could generate statistics from, at any, at any later point in time, you could say,
    1:48:23 oh, this person contributed this many lines of code or whatever.
    1:48:25 I mean, these are very crude metrics.
    1:48:28 Um, I would, I would definitely not want this to become, like, you know, part of your 10-year
    1:48:29 review or something.
    1:48:36 Um, but, um, I mean, I think already in, in, in enterprise computing, right, people do use
    1:48:41 some of these metrics as part of, of the assessment of, of, uh, performance of, of an employee.
    1:48:45 Um, again, this is the direction which is a bit scary for academics to go down.
    1:48:48 We, we, we, we don’t like metrics so much.
    1:48:55 And yet, academics use metrics, they just use old ones, number of papers.
    1:48:59 Yeah, yeah, it’s true, it’s true that, yeah, I mean, um.
    1:49:04 It feels like this is a metric while flawed is, is going in the, more in the right direction,
    1:49:04 right?
    1:49:05 Yeah.
    1:49:08 It’s an interesting, I mean, at least it’s a very interesting metric.
    1:49:10 Yeah, I think it’s interesting to study.
    1:49:13 I mean, I think you can, you can do studies of, of, of whether these are better predictors.
    1:49:15 Um, there’s this problem called Goodhart’s Law.
    1:49:19 If a statistic is actually used to incentivize performance, it becomes gamed.
    1:49:21 Um, and then it is no longer a useful measure.
    1:49:25 Oh, humans, always, yeah, yeah, no, I mean, it’s, it’s, it’s rational.
    1:49:28 So what we’ve done for this project is, is self-report.
    1:49:34 So, um, there are actually these standard categories, um, from the sciences of what types of contributions
    1:49:34 people give.
    1:49:40 So there’s, there’s a concept and validation and resources and, and, and, and, and coding and so forth.
    1:49:43 Um, so we, we, we, there’s a standard list of 12 or so categories.
    1:49:48 Um, and we just ask each contributor to this big matrix of all the, of all the authors and
    1:49:51 all the categories just to tick the boxes where they think that they contributed.
    1:49:57 Um, and just give a rough idea, you know, like, oh, so you did some coding and, and, uh, and
    1:50:01 you provided some compute, but you didn’t do any of the pen and paper verification or whatever.
    1:50:03 And I think that that works out.
    1:50:06 Traditionally, mathematicians just order alphabetically by surname.
    1:50:10 So we don’t have this tradition as in the sciences of, you know, lead author and second
    1:50:14 author and so forth, like, which we’re proud of, you know, we make all the authors equal
    1:50:17 status, but it doesn’t quite scale to this size.
    1:50:21 So a decade ago, I was involved in these things called polymath projects.
    1:50:24 It was the crowdsourcing mathematics, but without the lean component.
    1:50:29 So it was limited by, you needed a human moderator to actually check that all the contributions coming
    1:50:29 in were actually valid.
    1:50:32 Um, and this was a huge bottleneck actually.
    1:50:39 Um, but still we had projects that were, you know, 10 authors or so, but we had decided
    1:50:44 at the time, um, not to try to decide who did what, um, but to have a single pseudonym.
    1:50:50 Um, so we created this fictional character called DHJ polymath in the spirit of Bobaki.
    1:50:55 Bobaki is the pseudonym for a famous group of mathematicians in the 20th century.
    1:50:58 But, um, and so the paper was also authored on the pseudonym.
    1:50:59 So none of us got the author credit.
    1:51:03 Um, this actually turned out to be not so great for a couple of reasons.
    1:51:08 So, so one is that if you actually wanted to be considered for 10 years or whatever, you
    1:51:14 could not use this paper in your, uh, uh, as you’re submitted as one of your publications
    1:51:16 because it was, you didn’t have the formal author credit.
    1:51:23 Um, um, but the other thing that we’ve recognized much later is that when people referred to
    1:51:27 these projects, they naturally refer to the most famous person who was involved in the
    1:51:27 project.
    1:51:28 Oh yeah.
    1:51:29 So this was Tim Gower’s polymath project.
    1:51:34 This was Terrence Towers’ polymath project and not mentioned the, the other 19 or whatever
    1:51:35 people that were involved.
    1:51:36 Ah, yeah.
    1:51:40 So we’re trying something different this time around where we have, everyone’s an author,
    1:51:44 um, but we will have an appendix with this matrix and we’ll see how that works.
    1:51:47 I mean, uh, so both projects are incredible.
    1:51:52 Just the fact that you’re involved in such huge collaborations, but I think I saw a talk from
    1:51:56 Kevin Buzzard about, uh, the lean programming language is a few years ago and he was saying
    1:51:59 that, uh, this might be the future of mathematics.
    1:52:05 And so it’s also exciting that you’re embracing, uh, one of the greatest mathematicians in the
    1:52:10 world embracing this, what seems like the paving of the future of mathematics.
    1:52:18 Um, so I have to ask you here about the integration of AI into this whole process.
    1:52:24 So DeepMind’s alpha proof was trained using reinforcement learning, um, both failed and
    1:52:27 successful formal lean proofs of IMO problems.
    1:52:31 So this is sort of high level high school.
    1:52:32 Oh, very high level.
    1:52:32 Yes.
    1:52:35 Very high level, high school level mathematics problems.
    1:52:36 What do you think about the system?
    1:52:41 And maybe what is the gap between this system that is able to prove the high school level
    1:52:46 problems versus gradual level, uh, problems?
    1:52:46 Yeah.
    1:52:52 The difficulty increases exponentially with the, the number of steps involved in the proof is
    1:52:53 a commentorial explosion.
    1:52:57 So the thing of large language models is, is that they make mistakes.
    1:53:02 And so if a proof has got 20 steps and your offline board has a 10% failure rate, um, at
    1:53:07 each step, um, of, of going in the wrong direction, like, uh, it’s, it’s just extremely unlikely
    1:53:09 to actually, uh, reach the end.
    1:53:16 Actually, uh, just to take a small tangent here is how hard is the problem of mapping from natural
    1:53:18 language to the formal program?
    1:53:20 Well, yeah, it’s extremely hard.
    1:53:23 Actually, um, natural language, you know, it’s very fault tolerant.
    1:53:27 Um, like you can make a few minor grammatical errors and a speaker in the second language
    1:53:28 can get some idea of what you’re saying.
    1:53:31 Um, yeah, but, but formal language, yeah.
    1:53:35 You know, if you get one little thing wrong, um, I think that the whole thing is, is, is,
    1:53:36 is nonsense.
    1:53:39 Um, even formal to formal is, is, is very hard.
    1:53:42 There are different incompatible, um, uh, proof of system languages.
    1:53:45 Uh, there’s lean, but also cock and Isabel and so forth.
    1:53:48 And actually even converting from a formal language to formal language, um,
    1:53:51 is, uh, it’s, uh, it’s an unsolved, it’s an unsolved problem.
    1:53:52 That is fascinating.
    1:53:53 Okay.
    1:54:02 So, uh, but once you have an informal language, they’re using, um, their RL train model.
    1:54:07 So something, something akin to alpha zero that they use to go to then try to come up with
    1:54:07 proofs.
    1:54:08 They also have a model.
    1:54:11 I believe it’s a separate model for geometric problems.
    1:54:14 So what impresses you about the system?
    1:54:17 And, um, what do you think is the gap?
    1:54:18 Yeah.
    1:54:21 We talked earlier about things that are amazing over time, become kind of normalized.
    1:54:26 Um, so yeah, now somehow it’s, of course, geometry is a silver book problem.
    1:54:26 Right.
    1:54:27 That’s true.
    1:54:27 That’s true.
    1:54:29 I mean, it’s still beautiful.
    1:54:29 Yeah.
    1:54:29 Yeah.
    1:54:31 No, it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s a great work.
    1:54:32 It shows what’s possible.
    1:54:35 I mean, um, it’s, it, um, the approach doesn’t scale currently.
    1:54:36 Yeah.
    1:54:41 Three days of Google’s servers, server time to sort of one, uh, high school math from there.
    1:54:46 This, this is not a scalable, uh, prospect, um, especially with the exponential increase in,
    1:54:51 um, as, as the complexity, um, increases, which mentioned that they got a silver metal performance.
    1:54:57 The equivalent of, I mean, so first of all, they took way more time than was, uh, allotted.
    1:55:01 Um, and they had this assistance where, where the humans started helped by, by formalizing.
    1:55:07 Um, but, uh, also they’re giving us those full marks for the solution, which I guess is formally
    1:55:08 verified.
    1:55:09 So I guess that that’s, that’s fair.
    1:55:16 Um, uh, um, there, there are efforts, there was, there will be a proposal at some point to actually
    1:55:22 have an, an AI math Olympiad where at the same time as the human contestants get the, the actual
    1:55:28 Olympiad, um, problems, AIs will also be given the same problems with the same time period.
    1:55:31 Um, and the outputs will have to be graded by the same judges.
    1:55:36 Um, um, um, and which means that will have to be written in natural language rather than
    1:55:37 formal language.
    1:55:38 Oh, I hope that happens.
    1:55:40 I hope that this IMO happens.
    1:55:41 I hope, I hope next one.
    1:55:42 It won’t happen this IMO.
    1:55:45 The performance is not good enough in, in, in the time period.
    1:55:51 And, and, uh, um, but there are smaller competitions, uh, there are competitions where the, the answer
    1:55:54 is a, is a number rather than a long form proof.
    1:56:00 Um, and that’s, that’s, um, AI is actually a lot better at, um, problems where there’s a
    1:56:01 specific numerical answer.
    1:56:06 Um, cause it’s, it’s, it’s easy to, to, to, uh, to reinforce, to reinforce some learning
    1:56:06 on it.
    1:56:06 Yeah.
    1:56:07 You got the right answer.
    1:56:08 You got the wrong answer.
    1:56:12 Uh, it is, it’s, it’s a very clear signal, but a long form proof either has to be formal
    1:56:16 and then the lean can give it thumbs up, thumbs down, or it’s informal.
    1:56:22 Um, but then you need a human to grade it to tell, uh, and if you’re trying to do a billions
    1:56:27 of, of reinforcement learning, um, you know, um, um, runs, you’re not, you can’t hire enough
    1:56:29 humans to, uh, to grade those.
    1:56:33 Um, I mean, it’s already hard enough for, for the last language to do reinforcement learning
    1:56:38 on, on just the regular text that people get, but now we actually hire people, not just
    1:56:42 give thumbs up, thumbs down, but actually check the, the output mathematically.
    1:56:43 Yeah.
    1:56:44 Uh, that’s too expensive.
    1:56:51 So if we, uh, just explore this possible future, what, what, what is the thing that humans do
    1:56:54 that’s most special in, uh, in mathematics?
    1:56:59 So that you could see AI, uh, not cracking for a while.
    1:57:05 Well, so inventing new theories, so coming up with new conjectures versus, uh, proving the
    1:57:13 conjectures, building new abstractions, new representations, maybe, uh, an AI turner style
    1:57:16 with, uh, seeing new connections between disparate fields.
    1:57:17 That’s a good question.
    1:57:21 Um, I think the nature of what mathematicians do over time has changed a lot.
    1:57:26 Um, you know, um, so a thousand years ago, mathematicians had to compute the date of Easter,
    1:57:31 uh, and those really complicated, uh, calculations, you know, but it’s all automated, been automated
    1:57:32 centuries.
    1:57:33 Uh, we don’t need that anymore.
    1:57:37 So, you know, they used to navigate, to do spherical navigation, spherical trigonometry
    1:57:42 to navigate how to get from, from, um, the old world to the new or something, a very complicated
    1:57:42 calculation.
    1:57:47 Again, we’d been automated, um, you know, even a lot of undergraduate mathematics, even before
    1:57:52 AI, um, like Wolfram Alpha, for example, uh, it’s, it’s not a language model, but it can
    1:57:54 solve a lot of undergraduate level math tasks.
    1:58:00 So on the computational side, verifying routine things like having a problem and, um, and say,
    1:58:02 here’s a problem in partial differential equations.
    1:58:04 Could you solve it using any of the 20 standard techniques?
    1:58:07 Um, and they say, yes, I’ve tried all 20.
    1:58:10 I hear that 100 different permutations and, and here’s my results.
    1:58:13 Um, and that type of thing, I think it will work very well.
    1:58:20 Um, type of scaling to once you solve one problem to, to make the AI attack a hundred adjacent
    1:58:20 problems.
    1:58:29 Um, the things that humans do still, so, so where the AI really struggles right now, um, is knowing
    1:58:33 when it’s made a wrong turn, um, and it can say, oh, I’m going to solve this problem.
    1:58:37 I’m going to split up this problem into, um, into these two cases.
    1:58:38 I’m going to try this technique.
    1:58:43 And, um, sometimes if you’re lucky and it’s a simple problem, it’s the right technique and
    1:58:43 you solve the problem.
    1:58:46 And sometimes it will get, it will have a problem.
    1:58:49 It would, it would propose an approach which is just complete nonsense.
    1:58:52 Um, and, but like, it looks like a proof.
    1:58:56 Um, so this is one annoying thing about LLM generated mathematics.
    1:59:03 So, um, yeah, we, we, we’ve had human generated mathematics as very low quality, um, uh, like,
    1:59:06 you know, submissions for people who don’t have the formal training and so forth.
    1:59:09 But if a human proof is bad, you can tell it’s bad pretty quickly.
    1:59:15 It makes really basic mistakes, but the AI generator proofs, they can look superficially
    1:59:16 flawless.
    1:59:19 Uh, and it’s partly because that’s what the reinforcement learning has like you train them
    1:59:25 to do, uh, to, to make things, to, to produce text that looks like, um, uh, what is correct,
    1:59:26 which for many applications is good enough.
    1:59:30 Um, uh, so the errors often really subtle.
    1:59:34 And then when you spot them that they’re really stupid, um, like, you know, like no
    1:59:35 human would have actually made that mistake.
    1:59:35 Yeah.
    1:59:40 It’s actually really frustrating in the programming context because I program a lot and yeah, when
    1:59:45 a human makes when a low quality code, there’s something called code smell, right?
    1:59:51 You can tell, you can tell immediately like there’s signs, but with, with AI generate code
    1:59:53 and then you’re right.
    1:59:59 Eventually you find an obvious dumb thing that just looks like good code.
    1:59:59 Yeah.
    2:00:04 So, um, it’s very tricky to, and frustrating for some reason to have to work.
    2:00:04 Yeah.
    2:00:08 So the sense of smell, this is, this is, this is one thing that humans have.
    2:00:16 Um, and there’s a metaphorical mathematical smell that, uh, this is not clear how to get
    2:00:17 the AI to duplicate that.
    2:00:24 Eventually, um, I mean, so the, the, the way, um, alpha zero and so forth to make progress
    2:00:28 on go and chess and so forth is, is in some sense they have developed a sense of smell
    2:00:31 for go and chess positions, you know, that, that this position is good for white.
    2:00:32 It’s good for black.
    2:00:34 Um, they can’t enunciate why.
    2:00:39 Um, but just having that, that sense of smell lets them strategize.
    2:00:45 So if AI’s gained that ability to sort of assess a viability of certain proof strategies, so
    2:00:50 you can say, uh, I’m going to try to, to break up this problem into two small subtasks and
    2:00:52 they can say, oh, this looks good.
    2:00:55 The two tasks look like they’re simpler tasks than, than your main task.
    2:00:57 And they still got a good chance of being true.
    2:00:58 Um, so this is good to try.
    2:01:02 Or no, if you’ve, you’ve made the problem worse because each of the two sub problems
    2:01:05 is actually harder than your original problem, which is actually what normally happens if
    2:01:07 you try a random, uh, thing to try.
    2:01:11 Normally you actually, it’s very easy to transform a problem into an even harder problem.
    2:01:14 Very rarely do you transform into a simpler problem.
    2:01:21 Um, yeah, so if they can pick up a sense of smell, then they could maybe start competing
    2:01:23 with, uh, uh, human level mathematicians.
    2:01:27 So, so this is a hard question, but not competing, but collaborating.
    2:01:27 Yeah.
    2:01:28 If, okay.
    2:01:29 Hypothetical.
    2:01:36 If I gave you an oracle that was able to do some aspect of what you do and you could just
    2:01:36 collaborate with it.
    2:01:36 Yeah.
    2:01:37 Yeah.
    2:01:37 Yeah.
    2:01:40 What would that oracle, what would you like that oracle to be able to do?
    2:01:44 Would you like it to, uh, maybe be a verifier, like check?
    2:01:45 Mm-hmm.
    2:01:51 Do the codes, like you’re, yes, uh, uh, Professor Tao, this is the correct, this is a good,
    2:01:54 this is a promising fruitful direction.
    2:01:54 Yeah.
    2:01:54 Yeah.
    2:01:55 Yeah.
    2:02:01 Or, or would you like it to, uh, generate possible proofs and then you see which one is
    2:02:02 the right one.
    2:02:08 Um, or would you like it to maybe generate different representation, different, totally different
    2:02:10 ways of seeing this problem?
    2:02:10 Yeah.
    2:02:11 I think all of the above.
    2:02:15 Um, a lot of it is, we don’t know how to use these tools because, because it,
    2:02:21 it’s a paradigm that it’s not, um, yeah, we have not had in the past assistants that are
    2:02:28 competent enough to understand complex instructions, um, that can work at massive scale, but are
    2:02:29 also unreliable.
    2:02:36 Uh, it’s, it’s an interesting, uh, a bit unreliable in subtle ways whilst we, whilst providing sufficiently
    2:02:37 good output.
    2:02:39 Um, it’s, um, it’s an interesting combination.
    2:02:43 Um, you know, I mean, you have, you have like graduate students that you work with who
    2:02:45 are kind of like this, but not at scale.
    2:02:51 Um, you know, and, and, and we had previous software tools that, um, can work at scale,
    2:02:52 but, but very narrow.
    2:02:58 Um, so we have to figure out how to, how to use, um, I mean, um, so Tim Goward, actually,
    2:03:03 you mentioned, he actually foresaw like in, in 2000, he was envisioning what mathematics
    2:03:06 would look like in, in actually two and a half decades.
    2:03:14 And yeah, he, he wrote in his, in his article, like a hypothetical conversation between a mathematical
    2:03:18 assistant of the future, um, and himself, you know, trying to solve a problem and they
    2:03:22 would have to have a conversation that sometimes the human would propose an idea and the AI
    2:03:24 would, would, uh, evaluate it.
    2:03:29 Uh, and sometimes the AI would propose an idea, um, and, uh, and sometimes a competition
    2:03:32 was required and the AI would just go and say, okay, I’ve, I’ve checked the 100 cases
    2:03:37 needed here, or, um, uh, the first, uh, you, you said this is true for all N, I’ve checked
    2:03:42 the N up to 100, um, and it looks good so far, or hang on, there’s a problem at N equals 46.
    2:03:47 And so just a free form conversation where you don’t know in advance where things are going
    2:03:52 to go, but just based on, on, I think ideas could propose on both sides, calculations could
    2:03:52 propose on both sides.
    2:03:57 I’ve had conversations with AI where I say, okay, let’s, we’re going to collaborate to solve
    2:03:58 this math problem.
    2:03:59 And it’s a problem that I already know a solution to.
    2:04:01 So I, I try to prompt it.
    2:04:01 Okay.
    2:04:02 So here’s the problem.
    2:04:06 I suggest using this tool and it will find this, this lovely argument using a completely
    2:04:10 different tool, which eventually goes into the weeds and say, no, no, no, try using this.
    2:04:10 Okay.
    2:04:14 And it might start using this and then it’ll go back to the tool that I wanted to do before.
    2:04:18 Um, and like you have to keep railroading it, um, onto the path you want.
    2:04:21 And I could eventually force it to give the proof I wanted.
    2:04:26 Um, but it was like herding cats, um, like, and the amount of personal effort I had to
    2:04:31 take to not just sort of prompt it, but also check its output because it, after a lot of
    2:04:32 what it looked like, it was going to work.
    2:04:36 I know there’s a problem on 917 and basically arguing with it.
    2:04:40 Um, like it was more exhausting than doing it, uh, unassisted.
    2:04:43 So like, but that’s the current state of the art.
    2:04:49 I wonder if there’s, there’s a phase shift that happens to where it’s no longer feels
    2:04:53 like herding cats and maybe it’ll surprise us how quickly that comes.
    2:04:55 I believe so.
    2:04:59 Um, so in formalization, I mentioned before that it takes 10 times longer to formalize
    2:05:04 a proof than to write it by hand with these modern AI tools and also just better tooling
    2:05:10 that the lean, um, um, developers are doing a great job adding more and more features and
    2:05:11 making it user friendly.
    2:05:13 It’s going on from nine to eight to seven.
    2:05:14 Okay.
    2:05:14 No big deal.
    2:05:17 But one day it will drop below one.
    2:05:24 Um, and that’s the phase shift because suddenly, um, it makes sense when you write a paper to,
    2:05:29 to write it in lean first, uh, or through a conversation with AI, which is generally, um,
    2:05:30 on the fly with you.
    2:05:35 And it becomes natural for journals to accept, uh, you know, maybe they’ll offer an expedite
    2:05:40 refereeing, you know, that if, if a paper has already been formalized in lean, um,
    2:05:44 they’ll just ask the referee to comment on, on the significance of the results and how
    2:05:48 it connects to literature and not worry so much about the correctness, um, because that’s
    2:05:49 been certified.
    2:05:53 Um, papers are getting longer and longer in mathematics and like it’s harder and harder
    2:05:57 to get good refereeing for, um, the really long ones, unless they’re really important.
    2:06:01 Uh, it is actually an issue which, and the formalization is coming in at just the right
    2:06:03 time for this to be.
    2:06:07 And the easier and easier it gets because of the tooling and all the other factors, then
    2:06:11 you’re going to see much more like math lib will grow potentially exponentially.
    2:06:15 It’s a, it’s a, it’s a, it’s a virtuous, uh, cycle.
    2:06:15 Okay.
    2:06:19 I mean, one phase shift of this type that happened in the past was, uh, the adoption of LaTeX.
    2:06:22 So, so LaTeX is this typesetting language that all musicians use now.
    2:06:26 So in the past, people use all kinds of word processors and typewriters and whatever.
    2:06:31 But at some point LaTeX became easier to use than all other competitors.
    2:06:36 And like people would switch, you know, within a few years, like it was just a dramatic, um,
    2:06:47 it’s a wild out there question, but what, what year, how far away are we from a, uh, AI system
    2:06:52 being a collaborator on a proof that wins the Fields Medal?
    2:06:53 So that level.
    2:06:55 Okay.
    2:06:57 Um, well, it depends on the level of collaboration.
    2:07:00 I mean, no, like it deserves to be, to get the Fields Medal.
    2:07:02 Like, so half and half.
    2:07:05 Already, like I can imagine if it was for a metal winning paper,
    2:07:09 having some AI systems in writing it, you know, uh, just, you know,
    2:07:13 like the autocomplete alone is already, I, I use it, like it speeds up my, my own writing.
    2:07:18 Um, um, like, you know, you, you, you can have a theorem and you have a proof and the proof
    2:07:22 has three cases and I, I write down the proof of the first case and the autocomplete just
    2:07:24 suggests that now here’s how the proof of the second case could work.
    2:07:26 And like, it was exactly correct.
    2:07:26 That was great.
    2:07:29 Saved me like five, 10 minutes of, uh, of, of typing.
    2:07:32 But in that case, the AI system doesn’t get the Fields Medal.
    2:07:33 No.
    2:07:40 Are we talking 20 years, 50 years, a hundred years?
    2:07:41 What do you think?
    2:07:41 Okay.
    2:07:47 Uh, so I, I gave a prediction in print, but so by 2026, which is now next year, um, there
    2:07:52 will be math collaborations, you know, where the AI, so not Fields Medal winning, but, but
    2:07:53 like actual research level math papers.
    2:07:57 Like published ideas that are in part generated by AI.
    2:08:02 Um, maybe not the ideas, but at least, uh, some of the computations, um, um, um, the
    2:08:03 verifications.
    2:08:03 Yeah.
    2:08:03 I mean,
    2:08:04 that, that already happened.
    2:08:05 That’s already happened.
    2:08:05 Yeah.
    2:08:12 There are, there are problems that were solved, uh, by a complicated process, conversing with
    2:08:13 AI to propose things.
    2:08:16 And then the human goes and tries it and it, and then kind of comes like, doesn’t work.
    2:08:19 Um, but it was a different idea.
    2:08:22 Um, it, it’s, it’s hard to disentangle exactly.
    2:08:28 Um, there are certainly math results, which could only have been accomplished because there
    2:08:30 was a math, math, human mathematician and an AI involved.
    2:08:35 Um, but, uh, it’s hard to sort of disentangle credit.
    2:08:43 Um, I mean, these tools, they, they do not, uh, replicate all the skills needed to do mathematics,
    2:08:47 but they can replicate sort of some non-trivial percentage of them, you know, 30, 40%.
    2:08:49 So they can fill in gaps.
    2:08:56 Um, you know, so, uh, coding is, is, is, is a, is a good example, you know, so I, I, um, um,
    2:08:57 it’s annoying for me to, to code in Python.
    2:09:01 I’m not, I’m not a native, um, no professional, um, programmer.
    2:09:08 Um, but, um, the, with AI that the, the, the, the friction cost of, of doing it is, is, is
    2:09:08 much reduced.
    2:09:10 Uh, so it, it fills in that gap for me.
    2:09:14 Um, AI is getting quite good at literature review.
    2:09:18 Um, I mean, there’s still a problem with, um, hallucinating, you know, the references that
    2:09:19 don’t exist.
    2:09:22 Um, but this, I think is a silverware problem.
    2:09:27 Uh, if you train in the right way and so forth, you can, you can, and, um, and verify, um,
    2:09:33 you know, using the internet, um, you, you know, um, you should in a few years get the
    2:09:37 point where you, you have a, a lemma that you need and, uh, say, has anyone proven this
    2:09:38 lemma before?
    2:09:43 And we will do basically a fancy web search AI system and say, yeah, yeah, there are these
    2:09:45 six papers where something similar has happened.
    2:09:49 And I mean, you can ask you right now and it will give you six papers of which maybe one
    2:09:51 is legitimate and relevant.
    2:09:56 one exists, but it’s not relevant and for a hallucinated, um, it has a non-zero success
    2:10:01 rate right now, but, uh, it’s, there’s so much garbage, uh, so much, the signal to noise
    2:10:07 ratio is so poor that it’s, it’s, um, it’s most helpful when you already somewhat know the
    2:10:07 literature.
    2:10:13 Um, and you just need to be prompted to be reminded of a paper that was really subconsciously
    2:10:13 in your memory.
    2:10:17 Or it’s just helping you discover new, you were not even aware of, but is the correct
    2:10:18 citation.
    2:10:19 Yeah.
    2:10:24 That’s, yeah, that it can sometimes do, but, but when it does, it’s, it’s buried in, in a
    2:10:25 list of options to which the other.
    2:10:26 That are bad.
    2:10:26 Yeah.
    2:10:30 I mean, being able to automatically generate a related work section that is correct.
    2:10:31 Yeah.
    2:10:36 That’s actually a beautiful thing that might be another phase shift because it assigns credit
    2:10:37 correctly.
    2:10:37 Yeah.
    2:10:38 It does.
    2:10:40 It breaks you out of the silos of.
    2:10:40 Yeah.
    2:10:40 Yeah.
    2:10:40 Yeah.
    2:10:40 Yeah.
    2:10:44 No, I mean, yeah, no, there’s a big hump to overcome right now.
    2:10:49 I mean, it’s, it’s, it’s like self-driving cars, you know, the safety margin has to be really
    2:10:52 high for it to be, um, uh, to be feasible.
    2:10:56 So yeah, so there’s a last mile problem, um, with a lot of AI applications.
    2:11:03 Um, that, uh, you know, they can develop tools that work 20%, 80% of the time, but it’s still
    2:11:04 not good enough.
    2:11:07 Um, and in fact, even worse than good in some ways.
    2:11:13 I mean, another way of asking the feels metal question is what year do you think you’ll wake
    2:11:15 up and be like real surprised?
    2:11:22 You read the headline, the news or something happened that AI did like, you know, real breakthrough
    2:11:23 something.
    2:11:25 It doesn’t, you know, like feels metal, even hypothesis.
    2:11:31 It could be like really just this alpha zero moment would go that kind of thing.
    2:11:31 Right.
    2:11:39 Um, yeah, this, this decade, I can, I can see it like making a conjecture between two unrelated
    2:11:41 two, two things that people thought was unrelated.
    2:11:42 Oh, interesting.
    2:11:43 Generating a conjecture.
    2:11:45 That’s a beautiful conjecture.
    2:11:45 Yeah.
    2:11:49 And, and actually has a real chance of being correct and, and, and meaningful.
    2:11:55 And, um, because that’s actually kind of doable, I suppose, but the word of the data is, it’s
    2:11:57 for, yeah, yeah, no, that would be truly amazing.
    2:12:00 Um, the current models struggle a lot.
    2:12:04 I mean, so, um, a version of this is, um, I mean, the physicists have a dream of getting
    2:12:06 the AIs to discover new laws of physics.
    2:12:10 Um, uh, you know, the, the, the dream is you just feed it all this data.
    2:12:11 Okay.
    2:12:15 Uh, and, and, and this is a, here, here is a new patent that we didn’t see before, but it
    2:12:18 actually even struggled with the current state of the art, even struggles to discover old
    2:12:20 laws of physics, um, from the data.
    2:12:25 I mean, uh, or if it does, uh, there’s a big concern of contamination that it did it only
    2:12:29 because it’s like somewhere in its training data, it already somehow knew, um, you know,
    2:12:32 Boyle’s law or whatever you’re trying to, to, to reconstruct.
    2:12:37 Um, part of it is that we don’t have the right type of training data for this.
    2:12:41 Um, yeah, so for laws of physics, like we, we don’t have like a million different universes
    2:12:42 with a million different laws of nature.
    2:12:50 Um, and, um, like a lot of what we’re missing in math is actually the negative space.
    2:12:55 So we have published things of things that people have been able to prove, um, and conjectures
    2:13:00 that ended up being verified, um, or maybe counterexamples produced, but, um, we don’t
    2:13:05 have data on, on things that were proposed and they’re kind of a good thing to try, but then
    2:13:09 people quickly realized that it was the wrong conjecture and then they, they said, oh, but
    2:13:13 we, we should actually change, um, our claim to modify it in this way to actually make it
    2:13:14 more plausible.
    2:13:20 Um, there’s, there’s a trial and error process, which is a real integral part of human mathematical
    2:13:23 discovery, which we don’t record because it’s embarrassing.
    2:13:26 Uh, we make mistakes and, and we only like to publish our, our wins.
    2:13:31 Um, and, uh, the AI has no access to this data to train on.
    2:13:38 Um, I sometimes joke that basically AI has to go through, um, a grad school and actually,
    2:13:44 you know, go to grad courses, do the assignments, go to office hours, make mistakes, um, get advice
    2:13:46 on how to correct the mistakes and learn from that.
    2:13:52 Let me, uh, ask you, if I may, about, uh, Grigori Perlman.
    2:13:57 You mentioned that you try to be careful in your work and not let a problem completely consume
    2:13:58 you.
    2:14:02 Just, you’ve really fallen in love with the problem and really cannot rest until you solve
    2:14:03 it.
    2:14:07 But you also hasted to add that sometimes this approach actually can be very successful.
    2:14:14 An example you gave is Grigori Perlman who proved the Poincare conjecture and did so by
    2:14:19 working alone for seven years with basically little contact with the outside world.
    2:14:26 Can you explain this one millennial prize problem that’s been solved, Poincare conjecture, and
    2:14:30 maybe speak to the journey that Grigori Perlman’s been on?
    2:14:34 All right, so it’s, it’s a question about curved spaces.
    2:14:35 Earth is a good example.
    2:14:36 So Earth, you can think of as a 2D surface.
    2:14:40 In just being round, you know, it could maybe be a torus with a hole in it or kind of many
    2:14:40 holes.
    2:14:46 And there are many different topologies, a priori, that, that a surface could have, um, even if
    2:14:49 you assume that it’s, it’s bounded and, and, and, and smooth and so forth.
    2:14:54 So we’ve, we have figured out how to classify surfaces as a first approximation, uh, everything’s
    2:14:56 determined by something called the genus, how many holes it has.
    2:14:59 So a sphere has genus zero, a donut has genus one and so forth.
    2:15:03 And one way you can tell the surfaces apart, probably the sphere has, which is called simply
    2:15:04 connected.
    2:15:09 If you take any closed loop on the sphere, like a big closed loop of rope, you can contract
    2:15:11 it to a point and while staying on the surface.
    2:15:14 And the sphere has this property, but a torus doesn’t.
    2:15:18 And if you’re on a torus and you take a rope that goes around, say the, the outer diameter
    2:15:21 torus, there’s no way it can’t get through the hole.
    2:15:23 There’s no way to, to contract it to a point.
    2:15:29 So it turns out that the, the, the sphere is the only surface with this property of contract
    2:15:31 ability, I mean, up to like continuous deformations of the sphere.
    2:15:35 So, um, so things that I want to call topologically, um, equivalent of the sphere.
    2:15:38 So Poincare asked the same question, higher dimensions.
    2:15:43 Um, so this, it becomes hard to visualize, uh, because, um, surface you can think of as embedded
    2:15:47 in three dimensions, but as a curved free space, we don’t have good intuition of
    2:15:49 four D space to, to, to, to limit.
    2:15:52 And then there are also three D spaces that can’t even fit into four dimensions.
    2:15:54 You need five or six or, or higher.
    2:15:59 But anyway, uh, mathematically you can still pose this question that if you have a bounded
    2:16:03 three dimensional space now, which is also has this simply connected property that every
    2:16:04 loop can be contracted.
    2:16:06 Can you turn it into a three dimensional version of the sphere?
    2:16:08 And so this is the Poincare conjecture.
    2:16:11 Weirdly in higher dimensions, four and five, it was actually easier.
    2:16:14 So, uh, it was solved first in higher dimensions.
    2:16:16 There’s somehow more room to do the deformation.
    2:16:19 It’s easier to, to, to move things around to the sphere.
    2:16:21 But three was really hard.
    2:16:23 So people tried many approaches.
    2:16:27 There’s sort of commentary approaches where you chop up the, the surface into little triangles
    2:16:31 or tetrahedra and you, you just try to argue based on how the faces interact each other.
    2:16:35 Um, there were, um, algebraic approaches.
    2:16:38 Uh, there’s, there’s various algebraic objects, uh, like things called the fundamental group
    2:16:43 that you can attach to these homology and cohomology and, and, and, and all these very
    2:16:44 fancy tools.
    2:16:45 Um, they also didn’t quite work.
    2:16:51 Um, but Richard Hamilton’s proposed a, um, partial differential equations approach.
    2:16:56 So you take, um, you take, so the problem is that you’re, so you have this object, which
    2:17:02 is sort of secretly is a sphere, but it’s given to you in a, in a, in a, in a weird way.
    2:17:05 So it’s like, I think of a ball that’s been kind of crumpled up and twisted.
    2:17:06 And it’s not obvious that it’s a ball.
    2:17:12 Um, but, um, like if you, if you have some sort of surface, which is, which is a deformed
    2:17:18 sphere, you could, um, uh, you could, for example, think of it as the surface of a balloon.
    2:17:19 You could try to inflate it.
    2:17:20 You blow it up.
    2:17:25 Um, and naturally as you fill it with air, um, the, the wrinkles will sort of smooth out
    2:17:28 and it will turn into, um, um, a nice round sphere.
    2:17:31 Um, uh, unless of course it was a torus or something, in which case it would get stuck
    2:17:32 at some point.
    2:17:35 Like if you inflate a torus, there would, there’d be a point in the middle.
    2:17:38 When the inner ring shrinks to zero, you get, you get a singularity and you can’t
    2:17:39 blow up any further.
    2:17:40 Uh, you can’t flow any further.
    2:17:45 So he created this flow, which is now called Ritchie flow, which is a way of taking an
    2:17:49 arbitrary surface or, or space and smoothing it out to make it rounder and rounder, to
    2:17:50 make it look like a sphere.
    2:17:56 And he wanted to show that either, uh, this process would give you a sphere or it would
    2:17:56 create a singularity.
    2:18:00 Um, I can very much like how PDEs, either they have global regularity or finite and
    2:18:01 blow up.
    2:18:03 I can basically, it’s almost exactly the same thing.
    2:18:04 It’s all connected.
    2:18:10 Um, and so, and, and he showed that for two dimensions, two dimensional surfaces, um, uh, if you start
    2:18:13 with something connected, no singularity is ever formed.
    2:18:16 Um, you, you never ran into trouble and you could flow and it will give you a sphere.
    2:18:19 And it, so he got a new proof of the two dimensional result.
    2:18:23 Well, by the way, that’s a beautiful explanation of Ritchie flow and its application in this context.
    2:18:25 How difficult is the mathematics here?
    2:18:26 Like for the 2D case?
    2:18:27 Yeah.
    2:18:27 Yeah.
    2:18:32 These are quite sophisticated equations on par with the Einstein equations, slightly simpler,
    2:18:38 but, um, um, yeah, but, but they were considered hard nonlinear equations to solve.
    2:18:41 Um, and there’s lots of special tricks in 2D that, that, that helped.
    2:18:46 But in 3D, the problem was that, uh, this equation was actually supercritical.
    2:18:47 So it has the same problems as Navier-Stokes.
    2:18:52 As you blow up, um, maybe the curvature could get concentrated in finer and smaller, smaller
    2:18:52 regions.
    2:18:57 And it, um, it looked more and more nonlinear and things just look worse and worse.
    2:19:00 And there could be all kinds of singularities that showed up.
    2:19:05 Um, some singularities, um, like if, uh, there’s these things called neck pinches where, where,
    2:19:11 where the, uh, the surface sort of behaves like a, like a, like a barbell and it, it pinches
    2:19:11 at a point.
    2:19:14 Some, some singularities are simple enough that you can sort of see what to do next.
    2:19:17 You just make a snip and then you can turn one surface into two and evolve them separately.
    2:19:22 But there was, there was a, the, the prospect that there’s some really nasty, like knotted
    2:19:28 singularities showed up that you, you couldn’t see how to, um, resolve in any way, uh, that
    2:19:29 you couldn’t do any surgery to.
    2:19:34 Um, so you need to classify all the singularities, like what are all the possible ways that things
    2:19:34 can go wrong?
    2:19:40 Um, so what Perlman did was, first of all, he, he made the problem, he turned the problem
    2:19:41 from a supercritical problem to a critical problem.
    2:19:47 Um, I said before about how, um, the invention of the, of, of energy, the Hamiltonian, like
    2:19:50 really clarified, um, Newtonian mechanics.
    2:19:54 Um, uh, so he introduced, uh, something which is now called Perlman’s reduced volume and
    2:19:55 Perlman’s entropy.
    2:20:00 Um, he introduced new quantities, kind of like energy that looked the same at every single
    2:20:04 scale and turned the problem into a critical one where the nonlinearities actually suddenly
    2:20:06 looked a lot less scary than they did before.
    2:20:10 Um, and then he had to solve, he still had to analyze the singularities of this critical
    2:20:10 problem.
    2:20:14 Uh, and that itself was a problem similar to this wavemaps thing I worked on, actually.
    2:20:19 Um, so on the, on the level of difficulty of that, so he managed to classify all the singularities
    2:20:22 of this problem and show how to apply surgery to each of these.
    2:20:31 So, um, quite, uh, like a lot of really ambitious steps, um, and like, like nothing that a large
    2:20:37 language model today, for example, could, I mean, um, at best, uh, I could imagine a model
    2:20:41 proposing this idea as one of hundreds of different things to try.
    2:20:45 Um, but the other 99 would be complete dead ends, but you’d only find out after months
    2:20:52 of work, he must’ve had some sense that this was the right track to pursue because it takes
    2:20:53 years to get them from A to B.
    2:20:58 So you’ve done, like you said, actually, you see, even strictly mathematically, but more
    2:21:05 broadly in terms of the process, you’ve done similarly difficult things.
    2:21:08 What, what can you infer from the process he was going through?
    2:21:09 Cause he was doing it alone.
    2:21:12 What are some low points in a process like that?
    2:21:17 When you start to like, you’ve mentioned hardship, like, uh, AI doesn’t know when it’s
    2:21:18 failing.
    2:21:19 What happens to you?
    2:21:24 You’re sitting in your office when you realize the thing you did the last few
    2:21:27 days, maybe weeks is a failure.
    2:21:28 Well, for me, I switched to a different problem.
    2:21:32 Uh, so, uh, I’m, I’m, I’m, I’m a fox.
    2:21:32 I’m not a hedgehog.
    2:21:36 But you legitimately, that is a break that you can take is, is to step away and look at
    2:21:37 a different problem.
    2:21:37 Yeah.
    2:21:39 You can modify the problem too.
    2:21:43 Um, I mean, um, yeah, you can ask them if, if there’s a specific thing that’s blocking
    2:21:49 you at that, just, um, some bad case keeps showing up that, that, that for which your
    2:21:53 tool doesn’t work, you can just assume by fiat this, this bad case doesn’t occur.
    2:21:58 So you, you do some magical thinking, um, for the, you know, but, but strategically,
    2:21:58 okay.
    2:22:02 For the point to see if the rest of the argument goes through, um, if there’s multiple problems,
    2:22:05 uh, with, with, with your approach, then maybe you just give up.
    2:22:05 Okay.
    2:22:09 But if this is the only problem that, you know, then everything else checks out, then it’s
    2:22:10 still worth fighting.
    2:22:17 Um, so yeah, you have to do some, some, so forward reconnaissance sometimes to, uh, you
    2:22:17 know.
    2:22:20 And that is sometimes productive to assume like, okay, we’ll figure it out.
    2:22:21 Oh yeah.
    2:22:21 Yeah.
    2:22:22 Eventually.
    2:22:24 Um, sometimes actually it’s, it’s even productive to make mistakes.
    2:22:31 So, um, one of the, I mean, um, there was a project which actually, uh, we won some prizes
    2:22:36 for actually, but, uh, before other people, um, we worked on this PD problem again, actually
    2:22:37 this blow off regularity type problem.
    2:22:39 Um, and it was considered very hard.
    2:22:45 Um, Jean Bougain, um, uh, who was another field’s methodist who worked on a special case
    2:22:47 of this, but he could not solve the general case.
    2:22:51 Um, and we worked on this problem for two months and we found, we thought we solved it.
    2:22:56 We, we had this, this cute argument that if anything fit and we were excited, uh, we were
    2:22:59 planning celebration to all get together and have champagne or something.
    2:23:02 Um, and we started writing it up.
    2:23:06 Um, and one of, one of us, not me actually, but another co-author said, oh,
    2:23:11 um, in this, in this lemma here, we, um, we have to estimate these 13 terms that, that
    2:23:15 show up in this expansion and we estimate 12 of them, but in our notes, I can’t find the
    2:23:16 estimation of the 13th.
    2:23:17 Can you, can someone supply that?
    2:23:19 And I said, sure, I’ll look at this.
    2:23:21 And like you said, yeah, we didn’t cover that.
    2:23:22 We completely omitted this term.
    2:23:25 And this term turned out to be worse than the other 12 terms put together.
    2:23:27 Um, in fact, we could not estimate this term.
    2:23:30 Um, and we tried for a few more months and all different permutations.
    2:23:34 And there was always this one thing, one term that we could not control.
    2:23:38 Um, and so like, um, this was very frustrating.
    2:23:44 Um, but because we had already invested months and months of evidence already, um, we stuck
    2:23:47 at this, which we tried increasingly desperate things and crazy things.
    2:23:52 Um, and after two years, we found that approach is somewhat different, but quite a bit from
    2:23:57 our initial, um, strategy, which did actually didn’t generate these problematic terms and, and
    2:23:58 actually solve the problem.
    2:24:03 So we, we solved the problem after two years, but if we hadn’t had that initial full storm
    2:24:07 of nearly solving the problem, we would have given up by month two or something and worked
    2:24:08 on an easier problem.
    2:24:13 Um, yeah, if we had known it would take two years, not sure we would have started the project.
    2:24:14 Yeah.
    2:24:18 Sometimes actually having the incorrect, you know, it’s, it’s like Columbus traveling to the
    2:24:22 new world, the incorrect version of a measurement of the size of the earth.
    2:24:27 Um, he thought he was going to find a new trade route to India, uh, or at least that was how
    2:24:28 he sold it in his prospectus.
    2:24:35 I mean, it could be that he secretly knew, but just on a psychological element, do you have
    2:24:41 like emotional or like self doubt that just overwhelms you moments like that?
    2:24:44 You know, cause this stuff, it feels like math.
    2:24:51 It’s, it’s so engrossing that like it can break you when you like invest so much yourself
    2:24:53 on the problem and then it turns out wrong.
    2:24:58 You could start to similar way chess has broken some people.
    2:24:58 Yeah.
    2:25:04 Um, I, I think different mathematicians have different levels of emotional investment in
    2:25:05 what they do.
    2:25:08 I mean, I think for some people, it’s just a job, you know, you, you have a problem and
    2:25:10 if it doesn’t work out, you, you, you go on the next one.
    2:25:12 Um, yeah.
    2:25:18 So the fact that you can always move on to another problem, um, it reduces the emotional
    2:25:18 connection.
    2:25:23 I mean, there are cases, you know, so there are certain problems that are what are called
    2:25:27 mathematical diseases where, where, where, where just latch onto that one problem and
    2:25:30 they spend years and years thinking about nothing but that one problem.
    2:25:34 And, um, you know, maybe the, the career suffers and so forth.
    2:25:36 You say, oh, but I’ll get this big win.
    2:25:42 This will, you know, once I, once I finish this problem, I will make up for all the years
    2:25:44 of, of, of, of lost opportunity.
    2:25:51 And that’s, that’s, I mean, occasionally, occasionally it works, but I, I, um, I really don’t recommend
    2:25:53 it for people who have the right fortitude.
    2:25:54 Yeah.
    2:25:57 So I, I, I’ve never been super invested in any one problem.
    2:26:01 Um, one thing that helps is that we don’t need to call our problems in advance.
    2:26:07 Uh, um, well, uh, when we do grant proposals, uh, we sort of say we will, we will study this
    2:26:12 set of problems, but even though we don’t promise definitely by five years, I will supply a proof
    2:26:13 of all these things.
    2:26:18 You know, um, you promise to make some progress or discover some interesting phenomena.
    2:26:23 Uh, and maybe you don’t solve the problem, but you find some related problem that you can
    2:26:23 say something new about.
    2:26:26 Uh, and that’s, that’s a much more feasible task.
    2:26:29 But I’m sure for you, there’s problems like this.
    2:26:36 You have, you have, um, made so much progress towards the hardest problems in the history of
    2:26:37 mathematics.
    2:26:41 So is there, is there a problem that just haunts you?
    2:26:46 It sits there in the dark corners, you know, twin prime conjecture, Riemann hypothesis,
    2:26:47 global conjecture.
    2:26:52 Twin prime, that sounds, well, again, so, I mean, the problem is like Riemann hypothesis,
    2:26:53 those are so far out of reach.
    2:26:55 Do you think so?
    2:26:57 Yeah, there’s no even viable strategy.
    2:27:03 Like, even if I activate all my, all the cheats that I know of in this problem, like it, there’s
    2:27:04 just still no way to get made to be.
    2:27:12 Um, like it’s, it’s, um, I think it needs a breakthrough in another area of mathematics to
    2:27:12 happen first.
    2:27:17 And for someone to recognize that it would be a useful thing to transport into this problem.
    2:27:22 So we, we should maybe step back for a little bit and just talk about prime numbers.
    2:27:22 Okay.
    2:27:25 So they’re often referred to as the atoms of mathematics.
    2:27:30 Can you just speak to the structure that these, uh, atoms provide?
    2:27:34 The natural numbers have two basic operations attached to them, addition and multiplication.
    2:27:38 Um, so if you want to generate the natural numbers, you can do one of two things.
    2:27:41 You can just start with one and add one to itself over and over again.
    2:27:42 And that generates you the natural numbers.
    2:27:46 So additively, they’re very easy to generate one, two, three, four, five, or you can take
    2:27:47 the prime number.
    2:27:49 If you want to generate multiplicatively, you can take all the prime numbers, two, three,
    2:27:51 five, seven, and multiply them all together.
    2:27:55 Um, and together, they, they, they gives you all the, the, the natural numbers, except maybe
    2:27:56 for one.
    2:28:00 So there are these two separate ways of thinking about the natural numbers from an additive
    2:28:02 point of view and a more multiplicative point of view.
    2:28:05 Um, and separately, they’re not so bad.
    2:28:10 Um, so like any question about that natural numbers that only was addition is relatively
    2:28:10 easy to solve.
    2:28:14 And any question that only was multiplication is relatively easy to solve.
    2:28:17 Um, but what has been frustrating is that you combine the two together.
    2:28:23 Um, and suddenly you get the extremely rich, I mean, we know that there are statements in
    2:28:25 number theory that are actually as undecidable.
    2:28:27 There are certain polynomials in some number of variables.
    2:28:29 Is there a solution in the natural numbers?
    2:28:31 And the answer depends on, on an undecidable statement.
    2:28:36 Um, like, like whether, um, the axioms of mathematics are consistent or not.
    2:28:43 Um, but, um, yeah, but even the, the simplest problems that combine something more applicative
    2:28:48 such as the primes with something additive such as shifting by two, uh, separately, we understand
    2:28:52 both of them well, but if you ask, when you shift the prime by two, do you, can you get
    2:28:54 a, how often can you get another prime?
    2:28:58 We, it’s been amazingly hard to relate the two.
    2:29:04 And we should say that the twin prime conjecture is just that it posits that there are infinitely
    2:29:06 many pairs of prime numbers that differ by two.
    2:29:13 Now, the interesting thing is that you have been very successful at pushing forward the
    2:29:18 field and answering these complicated questions, uh, of this variety.
    2:29:23 Like you mentioned the green tile theorem, it proves that prime numbers contain arithmetic
    2:29:24 progressions of any length.
    2:29:24 Right.
    2:29:27 It’s just mind blowing that you can prove something like that.
    2:29:27 Right.
    2:29:28 Yeah.
    2:29:33 So what we’ve realized because of this, this, this type of research is that there’s different
    2:29:36 patterns have different levels of, uh, interstructibility.
    2:29:41 Um, so, so what makes the twin prime conjecture hard is that you can take all the primes in
    2:29:44 the world, you know, three, five, seven, 11, so forth.
    2:29:46 There are some twins in there.
    2:29:51 11 and 13 is a twin prime, pair of twin primes and so forth, but you could easily, if you
    2:29:56 wanted to, um, redact the primes to get rid of, to get rid of the, um, these twins.
    2:30:00 Like the twins, they show up and there are infinitely many of them, but they’re actually reasonably
    2:30:01 sparse.
    2:30:04 Um, not, there’s, there’s not, I mean, initially there’s quite a few, but once you got to the
    2:30:07 millions, trillions, they become rarer and rarer.
    2:30:12 And you could actually just, you know, if, if, if someone was given access to the database
    2:30:15 of primes, you just edit out a few, a few primes here and there, they could make the twin
    2:30:20 prime conjecture false by just removing like 0.01% of the primes or something, um, just
    2:30:23 well, well chosen to, to, um, to do this.
    2:30:30 And so you could present a censored database of the primes, which passes all of the statistical
    2:30:34 tests of the primes, you know, that it obeys things like the polynomial theorem and other
    2:30:37 things about the primes, but it doesn’t contain any trim primes anymore.
    2:30:40 Um, and this is a real obstacle for the twin prime conjecture.
    2:30:48 It means that any proof strategy to actually find twin primes in the actual primes must fail
    2:30:51 when applied to these slightly edited primes.
    2:30:57 And so it must be some very, um, subtle, delicate feature of the primes that you can’t just get
    2:31:00 from like, like aggregate statistical analysis.
    2:31:01 Okay.
    2:31:02 So that’s all.
    2:31:02 Yeah.
    2:31:06 On the other hand, I think progressions has turned out to be much more robust.
    2:31:10 um, like you can take the primes and you can eliminate 99% of the primes actually, you
    2:31:13 know, and you can take, take any 99% you want.
    2:31:17 And, uh, it turns out, and another thing we proved is that you still get as make progressions.
    2:31:22 Um, as make progressions are much, you know, they’re like cockroaches of arbitrary length.
    2:31:23 Yes, yes.
    2:31:24 That’s crazy.
    2:31:25 Yeah.
    2:31:30 I mean, so, so, uh, for, for people who don’t know arithmetic progressions is a sequence of
    2:31:31 numbers that differ by some fixed amount.
    2:31:32 Yeah.
    2:31:34 But it’s again, like it’s, it’s an infinite monkey type phenomenon.
    2:31:38 For any fixed length of your set, you don’t get arbitrary lengths of progressions.
    2:31:40 You only get quite short progressions.
    2:31:43 But you’re saying twin primes is not an infinite monkey phenomenon.
    2:31:47 I mean, it’s a very subtle, it’s still an infinite monkey phenomenon.
    2:31:47 Right.
    2:31:48 Yeah.
    2:31:53 If the primes were really genuinely random, if the primes were generated by monkeys, um,
    2:31:56 then yes, in fact, the infinite monkey theorem would.
    2:32:02 Oh, but you’re saying that twin prime is, it doesn’t, you can’t use the same tools.
    2:32:04 Like the, it doesn’t appear random almost.
    2:32:05 Well, we don’t know.
    2:32:09 Uh, yeah, we, we, we, we believe the primes behave like a random set.
    2:32:14 And so the reason why we care about the twin prime conjecture is it’s a test case for whether
    2:32:19 we can genuinely confidently say with, with 0% chance of error that the primes behave like
    2:32:20 a random set.
    2:32:20 Okay.
    2:32:23 Random, yeah, random versions of the primes we know contain twins.
    2:32:29 Um, at least we’re, we’re, we’re 100% probably, uh, or probably tending to 100% as you go
    2:32:30 out further and further.
    2:32:32 Um, yeah.
    2:32:36 So the primes we believe that they’re random, um, the reason why ethnic progressions are
    2:32:41 indestructible is that regardless of whether you’re saying it looks random or looks, um,
    2:32:46 structured, like periodic, in both cases, um, ethnic progressions appear, but for different
    2:32:47 reasons.
    2:32:51 Um, and this is basically all the ways in which the thing, uh, there are many proofs
    2:32:55 of, of these sort of ethnic progression epithereums, and they’re all proven by some sort of dichotomy
    2:32:57 where your set is either structured or random.
    2:33:00 And in both cases you can say something and then you put the two together.
    2:33:06 Um, but in twin primes, if, if the primes are random, then you’re happy, you win.
    2:33:11 If your primes are structured, they can be structured in a specific way that eliminates the
    2:33:12 twin, the twins.
    2:33:15 Uh, and we can’t rule out that one conspiracy.
    2:33:20 And yet you were able to make a, as I understand, progress on the K-tuple version.
    2:33:21 Right.
    2:33:21 Yeah.
    2:33:25 So, um, the, the one funny thing about conspiracies is that any one conspiracy theory is really
    2:33:26 hard to disprove.
    2:33:27 Uh-huh.
    2:33:30 That, you know, if you believe the world is run by lizards, you say, here’s some evidence
    2:33:34 that, that it, it, not run by lizards, but that, that evidence was planted by lizards.
    2:33:38 So, um, you may have encountered, uh, uh, this kind of phenomenon.
    2:33:38 Yeah.
    2:33:44 So, like, like, um, a pure, like, there’s, there’s almost no way to, um, definitively rule out
    2:33:44 a conspiracy.
    2:33:49 And the same is true in mathematics, that a conspiracy is solely devoted to eliminating
    2:33:50 twin primes.
    2:33:53 You know, like, you would, you would have to also infiltrate other areas of mathematics
    2:33:56 to sort of, but, but like, it could be made consistent, at least as far as we know.
    2:34:02 But there’s a weird phenomenon that you can make one, um, uh, one conspiracy rule out other
    2:34:03 conspiracies.
    2:34:07 So, you know, if the, if the world is, is run by lizards, they can’t also be run by aliens.
    2:34:08 Right.
    2:34:09 Right.
    2:34:12 So one unreasonable thing is, is, is, is, is hard to disprove, but, but more than one,
    2:34:13 there are, there are tools.
    2:34:15 Um, so, yeah.
    2:34:19 So, for example, we, we know there’s infinitely many primes that are, um, uh, no two, which
    2:34:24 are, um, so the infinite pairs of primes which differ by at most, uh, um, 246 actually
    2:34:26 is, is, is, is, is, is, is the current.
    2:34:27 So there’s like a bound.
    2:34:27 Yes.
    2:34:28 On the.
    2:34:28 Right.
    2:34:33 So like there’s twin primes, there’s things called cousin primes that differ by, by four.
    2:34:35 Um, there’s things called sexy primes that differ by six.
    2:34:37 Uh, what are sexy primes?
    2:34:38 Primes that differ by six.
    2:34:42 The name, the name is much less, it costs as much less exciting than the name suggests.
    2:34:42 Got it.
    2:34:48 Um, so you can make a conspiracy rule out one of these, but like once you have like 50
    2:34:50 of them, it turns out that you can’t rule out all of them at once.
    2:34:54 It just, it requires too much energy somehow in this conspiracy space.
    2:34:56 How do you do the bound part?
    2:35:02 How do you, how do you develop a bound for the difference between the primes that there’s
    2:35:03 an infinite number of?
    2:35:05 So it’s ultimately based on, uh, what’s called the pigeonhole principle.
    2:35:09 Um, so the pigeonhole principle, uh, it’s a statement that if you have a number of pigeons
    2:35:14 and they all have to go into pigeonholes and you have more pigeons than pigeonholes, then
    2:35:16 one of the pigeonholes has to have at least two pigeons in.
    2:35:17 So there has to be two pigeons that are close together.
    2:35:22 So for instance, if you have a hundred numbers and they all range from one to a thousand,
    2:35:27 um, two of them have to be at most 10 apart because you can divide up the numbers from one
    2:35:29 to a hundred into 100 pigeonholes.
    2:35:33 Let’s, let’s say if you have a hundred, if you have 101 numbers, 101 numbers, then two
    2:35:37 of them have to be, uh, distance less than 10 apart because two of them have to belong to
    2:35:37 the same pigeonhole.
    2:35:43 So it’s a basic, um, basic feature of, uh, a basic principle in mathematics.
    2:35:48 Um, so it doesn’t quite work with the primes already because the primes get sparser and sparser
    2:35:51 as you go out, that, that fewer and fewer numbers are prime.
    2:35:56 But it turns out that there’s a way to assign weights to the, to, to numbers.
    2:36:00 Like, um, so there are numbers that are kind of almost prime, uh, but they’re not, they,
    2:36:04 they don’t have no factors at all other than themselves in one, but they have very few
    2:36:05 factors.
    2:36:09 Um, and it turns out that we understand almost primes a lot better than we can assign
    2:36:09 primes.
    2:36:14 Um, and so, for example, it was known for a long time that there were twin almost primes.
    2:36:15 This has been worked out.
    2:36:17 So almost primes are something we can’t understand.
    2:36:22 So you can actually restrict attention to a suitable set of almost primes.
    2:36:30 And, uh, whereas the primes are very sparse overall, uh, relative to the almost primes, they
    2:36:31 actually are much less sparse.
    2:36:35 They may, um, you can set up a set of almost primes where the primes are density like, say,
    2:36:35 one percent.
    2:36:41 Um, and that gives you a shot at proving by applying some sort of original principle that,
    2:36:43 that there’s pairs of primes that are just only a hundred, a hundred apart.
    2:36:47 But in order to prove the twin prime conjecture, you need to get the density of primes in something
    2:36:49 almost up to, up to a threshold of 50%.
    2:36:52 Um, once you get up to 50%, you will get twin primes.
    2:36:54 But, uh, unfortunately there are barriers.
    2:37:00 Um, we know that, that no matter what kind of good set of almost primes you pick, the density
    2:37:01 of primes can never get above 50%.
    2:37:03 It’s called the parity barrier.
    2:37:05 Um, and I would love to find, yeah.
    2:37:09 So one of my long-term dreams is to find a way to breach that barrier because it would
    2:37:13 open up not only the twin prime conjecture, the Goldbach conjecture, and many other problems
    2:37:18 in number theory are currently blocked because our current techniques would require going beyond
    2:37:21 this theoretical, um, parity barrier.
    2:37:23 It’s like, it’s like, it’s like pulling past the speed of light.
    2:37:23 Yeah.
    2:37:27 So we should say a twin prime conjecture, one of the biggest problems in the history of
    2:37:32 mathematics, Goldbach conjecture also, um, they feel like next door neighbors.
    2:37:36 Uh, is there been days when you felt you saw the path?
    2:37:37 Oh yeah.
    2:37:39 Um, um, yeah.
    2:37:42 Uh, sometimes you try something and it works super well.
    2:37:48 Um, you, you, again, again, the sense of mathematical smell, uh, we talked about earlier, uh, you learn
    2:37:53 from experience when things are going too well because there are certain difficulties that
    2:37:54 you sort of have to encounter.
    2:38:01 Um, um, I think the way a colleague might put it is that, um, you know, like if, if you are
    2:38:06 on the streets of New York and you put in a blindfold and you put in a car and, and, uh, after some
    2:38:11 hours, um, you, the blindfold is off and you’re in Beijing, um, you know, I mean, that was too
    2:38:12 easy somehow.
    2:38:14 Like, like there was no ocean being crossed.
    2:38:19 Um, even if you don’t know exactly what, how, what, what was done, uh, you’re suspecting that
    2:38:20 there’s something that wasn’t right.
    2:38:26 But is that still in the back of your head to, do you return to these, to the prime, do you return
    2:38:29 to the prime numbers every once in a while to see?
    2:38:29 Yeah.
    2:38:33 When I have nothing better to do, which is less and less than I have, which is, I get busy
    2:38:37 with so many things these days, but yeah, when I have free time and I’m not, and I’m too
    2:38:40 frustrated to, to work on my sort of real research projects.
    2:38:44 And I also don’t want to do my administrative stuff, but I don’t want to do some errands
    2:38:44 for my family.
    2:38:48 Um, I can play with these, these things, um, for fun.
    2:38:50 Uh, and usually you get nowhere.
    2:38:50 Yeah.
    2:38:52 You have to learn to just say, okay, fine.
    2:38:54 I, once again, nothing happened.
    2:38:55 I will, I will move on.
    2:39:01 Um, yeah, very occasionally one of these problems I actually solved, uh, well, sometimes as you
    2:39:05 say, you think you solved it and then you’re euphoric for, uh, maybe 15 minutes.
    2:39:09 And then you think I should check this because this is too easy to be true.
    2:39:10 And it usually is.
    2:39:16 What’s your gut say about when these problems would be, uh, solved twin prime and go back?
    2:39:16 Prime.
    2:39:19 I think we’ll keep getting, keep getting more partial results.
    2:39:23 Um, it doesn’t need at least one.
    2:39:26 This parity barrier is, is the biggest remaining obstacle.
    2:39:31 Um, there are simpler versions of the conjecture where we are getting really close.
    2:39:38 Um, so I think we will, in 10 years, we will have many more, much closer results.
    2:39:39 We may not have the whole thing.
    2:39:40 Um, yeah.
    2:39:42 So twin primes is somewhat close.
    2:39:46 Riemann hypothesis, I have no, I mean, it has to happen by accident.
    2:39:51 I think, uh, so the Riemann hypothesis is a kind of more general conjecture about the distribution
    2:39:52 of prime numbers.
    2:39:52 Right.
    2:39:53 Yeah.
    2:39:56 It’s, it’s, it’s, it’s sort of viewed more applicatively, like for, for questions only
    2:40:01 involving multiplication, no addition, the primes really do behave as randomly as, as you
    2:40:01 could hope.
    2:40:07 So there’s a phenomenon in probability called square root cancellation that, um, you know,
    2:40:13 like if you want to poll say America upon some issue, um, and you, you ask one or two voters
    2:40:17 and you may have sampled a bad sample and then you get, you get a really imprecise, um, measurement
    2:40:22 of the, of the full average, but if you sample more and more people, the accuracy gets better
    2:40:22 and better.
    2:40:27 And the accuracy improves like the square root of the number of people you, uh, you sampled.
    2:40:31 So yeah, if you sample, um, a thousand people, you can get like a two, three percent margin
    2:40:31 of error.
    2:40:36 So in the same sense, if you measure the primes in a certain multiplicative sense, there’s a
    2:40:40 certain type of statistic you can measure and it’s called the Riemann’s data function and
    2:40:41 it fluctuates up and down.
    2:40:46 But in some sense, um, as you keep averaging more and more, if you sample more and more,
    2:40:48 the fluctuations should go down as if they were random.
    2:40:50 And there’s a very precise way to quantify that.
    2:40:54 And the Riemann hypothesis is a very elegant way that captures this.
    2:40:58 But, um, as with many other ways in mathematics, we have,
    2:41:02 very few tools to show that something really genuinely behaves like really random.
    2:41:06 And this is actually not just a little bit random, but it’s, it’s asking that it behaves
    2:41:08 as random as it actually random set.
    2:41:10 This, this, this square root cancellation.
    2:41:15 And we know because of things related to the parity problem, actually, that most of us,
    2:41:18 usual techniques cannot hope to settle this question.
    2:41:21 Um, the proof has to come out of left field.
    2:41:28 Um, yeah, but, uh, what that is, yeah, no one has any serious proposal.
    2:41:32 Um, yeah, and, and there’s, there’s various ways to sort of, as I said, you can modify the
    2:41:35 primes a little bit and you can destroy the Riemann hypothesis.
    2:41:38 Um, so like, it has to be very delicate.
    2:41:41 You can’t apply something that has huge margins of error.
    2:41:43 It has to just barely work.
    2:41:49 Um, and like, um, there’s like all these pits, pitfalls that you like dodge very adeptly.
    2:41:51 The prime numbers is just fascinating.
    2:41:52 Yeah, yeah, yeah.
    2:41:57 What, what to you is, um, most mysterious about the prime numbers?
    2:42:00 That’s a good question.
    2:42:03 So like conjecturally, we have a good model of them.
    2:42:06 I mean, like, as I said, I mean, they have certain patterns, like the primes are usually
    2:42:07 odd, for instance.
    2:42:11 But apart from these sort of obvious patterns, they behave very randomly and just assuming
    2:42:12 that they behave.
    2:42:16 So there’s something called the Kramer random model of the primes, that, that, that after
    2:42:18 a certain point, primes just behave like a random set.
    2:42:22 Um, and there’s various slight modifications to this model, but this has been a very good
    2:42:22 model.
    2:42:24 It matches the numerics.
    2:42:26 It tells us what to predict.
    2:42:28 Like I can tell you with complete certainty, the true and prime conjecture is true.
    2:42:31 Uh, the random model gives overwhelming odds it is true.
    2:42:32 I just can’t prove it.
    2:42:37 Most of our mathematics is optimized for solving things with patterns.
    2:42:46 Um, and the primes have this anti-patent, um, as do almost everything really, but we can’t
    2:42:46 prove that.
    2:42:47 Yeah.
    2:42:50 I guess it’s not mysterious that the primes be random, it’s kind of random because there’s
    2:42:57 sort of no reason for them to be, um, uh, to have any kind of secret pattern, but what is
    2:43:01 mysterious is what is the mechanism that really forces the randomness to happen.
    2:43:03 Uh, and this is just absent.
    2:43:09 Another incredibly surprisingly difficult problem is the collage conjecture.
    2:43:09 Oh, yes.
    2:43:17 Simple to state, beautiful to visualize in its simplicity, and yet extremely, uh, difficult
    2:43:18 to solve.
    2:43:20 And yet you have been able to make progress.
    2:43:26 Uh, uh, Paul Urdar said about the collage conjecture that mathematics may not be ready for
    2:43:27 such problems.
    2:43:32 Others have stated that it is an extraordinarily difficult problem, completely out of reach.
    2:43:35 This is in 2010, out of reach of present day mathematics.
    2:43:37 And yet you have made some progress.
    2:43:39 Why is it so difficult to make?
    2:43:41 Can you actually even explain what it is?
    2:43:41 Oh, yeah.
    2:43:41 Yeah.
    2:43:43 So it’s, it’s, it’s a problem that you can explain.
    2:43:49 Um, yeah, it, um, it helps with some, um, visual aids, but yeah.
    2:43:53 So you take any natural number, like say 13 and you apply the following procedure to it.
    2:43:58 So if it’s even, you divide it by two and if it’s odd, you multiply it by three and add
    2:43:59 one.
    2:44:01 So even numbers get smaller, odd numbers get bigger.
    2:44:04 So 13, uh, would become 40 because 13 times three is 39.
    2:44:05 Add one, you get 40.
    2:44:09 So it’s a simple process for odd numbers and even numbers.
    2:44:10 They’re both very easy operations.
    2:44:11 And then you put it together.
    2:44:13 It’s still reasonably simple.
    2:44:16 Um, but then you ask what happens when you iterate it.
    2:44:18 You take the output that you just got and feed it back in.
    2:44:20 So 13 becomes 40.
    2:44:22 40 is now even divided by two is 20.
    2:44:27 20 is still even divided by two, 10, five, and then five times three plus one is 16.
    2:44:29 And then eight, four, two, one.
    2:44:33 So, uh, and then from one, it goes one, four, two, one, four, two, one.
    2:44:33 It cycles forever.
    2:44:39 So the sequence I just described, um, you know, 13, 40, 20, 10, so both, uh, these are also
    2:44:44 called hailstone sequences because there’s an oversimplified model of, of hailstone formation,
    2:44:47 you know, which is not actually quite correct, but it’s still somehow taught to high school
    2:44:53 students as a first approximation is that, um, like a little nugget of ice gets, gets a nice
    2:44:53 crystal.
    2:44:57 It forms in a cloud and it goes up and down because of the wind.
    2:45:02 And sometimes when it’s cold, it requires a bit more mass and maybe it melts a little bit.
    2:45:06 And this process of going up and down creates this sort of partially melted ice, which eventually
    2:45:07 causes hailstone.
    2:45:09 And eventually it falls down to the earth.
    2:45:14 So the conjecture is that no matter how high you start up, like you take a number, which
    2:45:18 is in the millions or billions, you go, this process that goes up if you’re odd and down,
    2:45:22 if you’re even, it eventually goes down to earth all the time.
    2:45:27 No matter where you start with this very simple algorithm, you end up at one and you
    2:45:28 might climb for a while.
    2:45:28 Right.
    2:45:29 Yeah.
    2:45:30 So it’s now, yeah.
    2:45:33 If you plot it, um, these sequences, they look like Brownian motion.
    2:45:37 Um, they look like the stock market, you know, they just go up and down in a, in a seemingly
    2:45:38 random pattern.
    2:45:43 And in fact, usually that’s what happens that if you plug in a random number, you can actually
    2:45:46 prove that at least initially that it would look like, um, a random walk.
    2:45:49 Um, and that’s actually a random walk with a downward drift.
    2:45:55 Um, it’s like, if you’re always gambling on a roulette at the casino with odds slightly
    2:45:55 weighted against you.
    2:46:00 So sometimes you, you win, sometimes you lose, but over in the long run, you lose a bit more
    2:46:01 than you win.
    2:46:04 Um, and so normally your wallet will hit, will go to zero.
    2:46:06 Um, if you just keep playing over and over again.
    2:46:08 So statistically it makes sense.
    2:46:09 Yes.
    2:46:16 So, so the result that I, I proved roughly speaking is that, that statistically like 90% of all inputs
    2:46:21 would, would drift down to maybe not all the way to one, but to be much, much smaller
    2:46:22 than what you started.
    2:46:27 So it’s, it’s like, if I told you that if you go to a casino, most of the time you end
    2:46:31 up, if you keep playing up long enough, you end up with a smaller amount in your wallet
    2:46:31 than when you started.
    2:46:34 Um, that’s kind of like the, what the result that I proved.
    2:46:36 So why is that result?
    2:46:41 Like, can you continue down that thread to prove the full conjecture?
    2:46:46 Well, the, the problem is that, um, my, I used arguments from probability theory.
    2:46:48 Um, and there’s always this exceptional event.
    2:46:53 So, you know, so in probability we have this, this low, large numbers, um, which tells you
    2:46:58 things like if you play a casino with a, um, a game at a casino with a losing, um, expectation
    2:47:04 over time, you are guaranteed or almost surely with probably probability as close to 100% as
    2:47:05 you wish, you’re guaranteed to lose money.
    2:47:08 But there’s always this exceptional outlier.
    2:47:13 Like it is mathematically possible that even in the game is, is the odds are not in your
    2:47:13 favor.
    2:47:18 You could just keep winning slightly more often than you lose very much like how in Navier
    2:47:22 Stokes, it could be, you know, um, most of the time, um, your waves can disperse.
    2:47:27 There could be just one outlier choice of initial conditions that would lead you to blow up.
    2:47:34 And there could be one outlier choice of, um, um, a special number that you stick in that
    2:47:38 shoots off infinity while all other numbers crash to earth, uh, crash to one.
    2:47:44 Um, in fact, um, there’s some mathematicians, um, who’ve, uh, Alex Kontorovic, for instance,
    2:47:50 who’ve proposed that, um, that actually, um, these Kaldats, uh, iterations are like these
    2:47:51 cellular automator.
    2:47:55 Um, um, yeah, actually, if you look at what happened in binary, they do actually look a little
    2:47:57 bit like, like these game of life type patterns.
    2:48:03 Um, and in an analogy to how the game of life can create these, these massive, like self-applicating
    2:48:07 objects and so forth, possibly you could create some sort of heavier than air flying machine,
    2:48:13 a number, which is actually encoding this machine, which is just whose job it is to encode
    2:48:16 is to create a version of a cell, which is, which is larger.
    2:48:22 Heavier than air machine encoded in a number that flies forever.
    2:48:22 Yeah.
    2:48:25 So Conway, in fact, worked on, worked on this problem as well.
    2:48:25 Oh, wow.
    2:48:30 So Conway, um, so similar, in fact, that was one of my inspirations for the Navi, Navi Stokes
    2:48:35 project, that Conway studied generalizations of the Kaldats problem, where instead of
    2:48:39 multiplying by three and adding one or dividing by two, you have more complicated branching
    2:48:43 rules, but, but instead of having two cases, maybe you have 17 cases and then you go up
    2:48:43 and down.
    2:48:49 And he showed that once your iteration gets complicated enough, you can actually encode
    2:48:52 Turing machines and you can actually make these problems undecidable and do things like
    2:48:52 this.
    2:48:58 In fact, he invented a programming language for, uh, these kind of fractional linear transformations.
    2:49:06 And he showed that you can, um, you can, um, you can program if it was too incomplete, you
    2:49:10 could, you could, you could, uh, um, you could make a program that if, if your number you insert
    2:49:14 in was encoded as a prime, it would sink to zero, it would go down, otherwise it would go
    2:49:16 up, uh, and things like that.
    2:49:22 Um, so the general class of problems is, is really, uh, as complicated as all the mathematics.
    2:49:27 Some of the mystery of the cellular automata that we talked about, uh, having a mathematical
    2:49:33 framework to say anything about cellular automata, maybe the same kind of framework is required.
    2:49:33 Yeah.
    2:49:34 Yeah.
    2:49:34 Yeah.
    2:49:40 If you want to do it, not statistically, but you really want 100%, 100% of all inputs
    2:49:41 to, to, to, for the earth.
    2:49:41 Yeah.
    2:49:48 So what might be feasible is, is, is assisting 99%, you know, go to one, but like everything,
    2:49:50 you know, uh, that looks hard.
    2:49:56 What would you say is out of these within reach famous problems is the hardest problem we have
    2:49:57 today?
    2:49:58 Is the Riemann hypothesis?
    2:50:00 Riemann is up there.
    2:50:05 Um, P equals NP is, is a good one because like, uh, that’s, that’s, that’s a meta problem.
    2:50:10 Like if you solve that in the, um, in the positive sense that you can find a P equals NP algorithm,
    2:50:13 then potentially this solves a lot of other problems as well.
    2:50:17 And we should mention some of the conjectures we’ve been talking about, you know, a lot of
    2:50:19 stuff is built on top of them now.
    2:50:20 There’s ripple effects.
    2:50:23 P equals NP has more ripple effects than basically any other.
    2:50:23 Right.
    2:50:30 If the Riemann hypothesis is disproven, um, that’d be a big mental shock to the number of
    2:50:35 theorists, uh, but it would have follow on effects for, um, cryptography.
    2:50:41 Um, because a lot of cryptography uses number theory, um, uses number theory constructions
    2:50:42 involving primes and so forth.
    2:50:47 And, um, it relies very much on the intuition that number of those are built over many, many
    2:50:51 years of what operations involving primes behave randomly and what ones don’t.
    2:50:58 Um, and in particular, um, encryption, um, methods are designed to turn text with information
    2:51:02 on it into text, which is indistinguishable from, um, from random noise.
    2:51:08 So, um, and hence we believe to be almost impossible to crack, um, at least mathematically.
    2:51:16 Um, but, uh, if something as core to our beliefs as the Riemann hypothesis is wrong, it means that
    2:51:20 there are, there are actual patterns of the primes that we’re not aware of.
    2:51:25 And if there’s one, there’s probably going to be more, um, and suddenly a lot of our crypto
    2:51:26 systems are in doubt.
    2:51:27 Yeah.
    2:51:32 But then how do you then say stuff about the primes?
    2:51:33 Yeah.
    2:51:37 Like you’re going towards the, uh, collect conjecture again.
    2:51:41 Um, because if I, I, you, you want it to be random, right?
    2:51:42 You want it to be random.
    2:51:43 Yeah.
    2:51:46 So more broadly, I’m just looking for more tools, more ways to show that, that, that things
    2:51:47 are random.
    2:51:49 How do you prove a conspiracy doesn’t happen?
    2:51:49 Right.
    2:51:53 Is there any chance to you that P equals NP?
    2:51:56 Is there some, can you imagine a possible universe?
    2:51:57 It is possible.
    2:52:00 I mean, there’s, there’s various, uh, scenarios.
    2:52:04 I mean, there’s, there’s one where it is technically possible, but in fact, it’s never
    2:52:05 actually implementable.
    2:52:10 The evidence is sort of slightly pushing in favor of no, that we’d probably P is not equal
    2:52:10 to NP.
    2:52:14 I mean, it seems like it’s one of those cases seem more similar to Riemann hypothesis that
    2:52:19 I think the evidence is leaning pretty heavily on the no.
    2:52:21 Certainly more on the no than on the yes.
    2:52:25 The funny thing about P equals NP is that we have also a lot more obstructions than we do
    2:52:26 for almost any other problem.
    2:52:31 Um, so while there’s evidence, uh, we also have a lot of results ruling out many, many
    2:52:33 types of approaches to the problem.
    2:52:36 Uh, this is the one thing that the computer scientists have actually been very good at.
    2:52:39 It’s actually saying that, that certain approaches cannot work.
    2:52:40 No go theorems.
    2:52:41 It could be undecidable.
    2:52:42 We don’t, yeah, we don’t know.
    2:52:47 There’s a funny story I read that when you won the Fields Medal, somebody from the internet
    2:52:54 wrote you and asked, uh, you know, what are you going to do now that you’ve won this prestigious
    2:52:54 award?
    2:53:00 And then you just quickly, very humbly said that, you know, this, a shiny medal is not
    2:53:01 going to solve any of the problems I’m currently working on.
    2:53:04 So I’m just, I’m going to keep working on them.
    2:53:08 It’s just, first of all, it’s funny to me that you would answer an email in that context.
    2:53:14 And second of all, it, um, it just shows your humility, but anyway, uh, maybe you could speak
    2:53:21 to the Fields Medal, but it’s another way for me to ask, uh, about, uh, Gregorio Perlman.
    2:53:26 What do you think about him famously declining the Fields Medal and the millennial prize, which
    2:53:30 came with a $1 million of prize money?
    2:53:32 He stated that I’m not interested in money or fame.
    2:53:35 The prize is completely irrelevant for me.
    2:53:39 If the proof is correct, then no other recognition is needed.
    2:53:40 Yeah.
    2:53:45 No, he’s, he’s somewhat of an outlier, um, even among mathematicians who tend to, uh, to
    2:53:47 have, uh, somewhat idealistic views.
    2:53:48 Um, I’ve never met him.
    2:53:51 I think I’d be interested to meet him one day, but I never had the chance.
    2:53:54 I know people who met him, but he’s always had strong views about certain things.
    2:53:58 Um, you know, I mean, it’s, it’s not like he was completely isolated from the math community.
    2:54:01 I mean, he would, he would give talks and write papers and so forth.
    2:54:04 Um, but at some point he just decided not to engage with the rest of the community.
    2:54:07 There was, he was disillusioned or something.
    2:54:08 Um, I don’t know.
    2:54:15 Um, and he decided to, to, uh, uh, to peace out, uh, and, you know, collect mushrooms in
    2:54:15 St. Petersburg or something.
    2:54:17 And that’s, that’s fine.
    2:54:19 You know, you can, you can do that.
    2:54:21 Um, I mean, that’s another sort of flip side.
    2:54:25 I mean, we are not, a lot of problems that we solve, you know, they, some of them do have
    2:54:27 practical application and that’s, that’s great.
    2:54:33 But, uh, like if you stop thinking about a problem that you, you know, so he’s, he hasn’t published
    2:54:35 since in this field, but that’s fine.
    2:54:37 There’s many, many other people who’ve done so as well.
    2:54:39 Um, yeah.
    2:54:43 So I guess one thing I didn’t realize initially with the Fields Medal is that it, it sort of
    2:54:45 makes you part of the establishment.
    2:54:50 Um, you know, so, you know, most mathematicians, you know, there’s, uh, just career mathematicians,
    2:54:54 you know, you just focus on publishing your next paper, maybe getting one, just to promote
    2:54:59 one, one rank, you know, and, and starting a few projects, maybe taking some students or
    2:54:59 something.
    2:55:00 Yeah.
    2:55:04 But then suddenly people want your opinion on things and, uh, you have to think a little
    2:55:07 bit about, uh, you know, things that you might just so foolishly say because you know
    2:55:08 no one’s going to listen to you.
    2:55:10 Uh, it’s more important now.
    2:55:12 Is it constraining to you?
    2:55:14 Are you able to still have fun and be a rebel?
    2:55:18 And try crazy stuff and play with ideas.
    2:55:22 I have a lot less free time than I had previously.
    2:55:24 Um, I mean, mostly by choice.
    2:55:28 I mean, I, I, I can always see I have the option to sort of, uh, decline.
    2:55:29 So I decline a lot of things.
    2:55:33 I, I think I could decline even more, um, or I could acquire a reputation of being so
    2:55:35 unreliable that people don’t even ask anymore.
    2:55:39 Uh, this is, I love the different algorithms here.
    2:55:41 This is, it’s always an option.
    2:55:44 Um, but you know, um,
    2:55:49 There are things that are like, I mean, so I mean, I, I, I don’t spend as much time
    2:55:53 as I do as a postdoc, you know, just, just working on one problem at a time or, um, fooling
    2:55:54 around.
    2:55:59 I still do that a little bit, but yeah, as you’re advancing your career, some of the
    2:56:03 more soft skills, so math somehow front loads all the technical skills to the early stages
    2:56:03 of your career.
    2:56:05 Um, so, um, yeah.
    2:56:09 So it’s, uh, as a postdoc is published or perish, you’re, you’re, you’re, you’re incentivized
    2:56:14 to basically focus on, on proving very technical theorems to sort of prove yourself, um, as well
    2:56:15 as proof the theorems.
    2:56:22 Um, but then as, as you get more senior, you have to start, you know, mentoring and, and, and, and
    2:56:27 giving interviews, uh, and, uh, and trying to shape, um, direction of the field, both research
    2:56:27 wise.
    2:56:32 And, and, and, you know, uh, sometimes you have to, uh, uh, you know, do various administrative
    2:56:32 things.
    2:56:37 And it’s kind of the right social contract because you, you need to, to work in the trenches
    2:56:39 to see what can help mathematicians.
    2:56:43 The other side of the establishment sort of the, the, the really positive thing is that,
    2:56:48 um, you get to be a light that’s an inspiration to a lot of young mathematicians or young people
    2:56:50 that are just interested in mathematics.
    2:56:53 It’s like, yeah, it’s just how the human mind works.
    2:57:01 This is where I would probably, uh, say that I like the Fields Medal, that it does inspire
    2:57:03 a lot of young people somehow.
    2:57:05 I don’t, this is just how human brains work.
    2:57:10 At the same time, I also want to give sort of respect to somebody like Gregorio Perlman,
    2:57:14 who is critical of awards in his mind.
    2:57:19 Those are his principles and any human that’s able for their principles to like do the thing
    2:57:22 that most humans would not be able to do.
    2:57:24 It’s beautiful to see.
    2:57:26 Some recognition is, is necessarily important.
    2:57:31 And, uh, but yeah, it’s, it’s also important to not let these things take over your life
    2:57:36 and like only be concerned about, uh, getting the next big award or whatever.
    2:57:42 Um, I mean, yeah, so again, you see these people try to only solve like a really big math problems
    2:57:48 and not work on, on, on things that are less, uh, sexy, if you wish, but, but, but actually
    2:57:50 still interesting and instructive.
    2:57:55 As you say, like the way the human mind works, it’s, um, we understand things better when they’re
    2:57:56 attached to humans.
    2:58:01 Um, and also, uh, if they’re attached to a small number of humans, like I said, there’s,
    2:58:04 there’s the way our human mind is, is, is wired.
    2:58:09 We can comprehend the relationships between the 10 or 20 people, you know, but once you
    2:58:12 get beyond like a hundred people, I, this is, there’s a, there’s a limit.
    2:58:13 I figured there’s a name for it.
    2:58:16 Um, beyond which, uh, it just becomes the other.
    2:58:22 Um, and, uh, so we have, you have to simplify the pole mass of, you know, 99.9% of humanity
    2:58:22 becomes the other.
    2:58:27 Um, and, uh, and often these models are, are, are incorrect and this causes all kinds of
    2:58:28 problems.
    2:58:33 But, um, so yeah, so to humanize a subject, you know, if you identify a small number of
    2:58:37 people and say, you know, these are representative people of the subject, you know, role models,
    2:58:45 for example, um, that has some role, um, but it can also be, um, uh, yeah, too much of it
    2:58:51 can be harmful because it’s, I’ll be the first to say that my own career path is not that of
    2:58:52 a typical mathematician.
    2:58:56 Um, I, the very accelerated education, I skipped a lot of classes.
    2:59:01 Um, I think I was, had very fortunate mentoring opportunities, um, and I think I was at the
    2:59:07 right place at the right time just because someone does, doesn’t have my, um, trajectory, you
    2:59:09 know, doesn’t mean that they can’t be good mathematicians.
    2:59:11 I mean, they, they, they, they, they, they, they, they, they just in, in a very different
    2:59:14 style, uh, and we need people with a different style.
    2:59:21 Um, and, you know, even if, and sometimes too much focus is given on the, on the person who does
    2:59:26 the last step to complete, um, a project in mathematics or elsewhere, that’s, that’s really
    2:59:30 taken, you know, centuries or decades with lots and lots of putting on lots of previous work.
    2:59:34 Um, but that’s a story that’s difficult to tell, um, if you’re not an expert because, you
    2:59:38 know, it’s easier to just say one person did this one thing, you know, it makes for a much
    2:59:39 simpler history.
    2:59:47 I think on the whole, it, um, is a hugely positive thing to, to talk about Steve Jobs as a representative
    2:59:53 of Apple when I personally know, and of course, everybody knows the incredible design, the
    2:59:58 incredible engineering teams, just the individual humans on those teams.
    3:00:01 They’re not a team, they’re individual humans on a team.
    3:00:06 And there’s a lot of brilliance there, but it’s just a nice shorthand, like a very, like
    3:00:06 pie.
    3:00:07 Yeah.
    3:00:08 Steve Jobs.
    3:00:08 Yeah.
    3:00:08 Yeah.
    3:00:13 As a starting point, you see, you know, as a first approximation, that’s how you.
    3:00:16 And then read some biographies and then look into much deeper first approximation.
    3:00:17 Yeah.
    3:00:17 That’s right.
    3:00:21 Uh, so you mentioned you were a Princeton to, um, Andrew Wiles at that time.
    3:00:22 Oh yeah.
    3:00:23 He’s a professor there.
    3:00:26 It’s a funny moment how history is just all interconnected.
    3:00:29 And at that time he announced that he proved the Fermat’s last theorem.
    3:00:36 What did you think, maybe looking back now with more context about that moment in math history?
    3:00:37 Yeah.
    3:00:38 So I was a graduate student at the time.
    3:00:43 I mean, I, I vaguely remember, you know, there was press attention and, uh, um, we all
    3:00:47 had the same, um, uh, we had pigeonholes in the same mailroom, you know, so we were all
    3:00:51 pitching out mail and like suddenly Andrew Wiles’ mailbox exploded to be overflowing.
    3:00:53 That’s a good, that’s a good metric.
    3:00:54 Yeah.
    3:00:58 Um, you know, so yeah, we, we all talked about it at, at tea and so forth.
    3:01:01 I mean, we, we didn’t understand, most of us sort of understand the proof.
    3:01:04 Um, we understand sort of high level details.
    3:01:07 Um, like there’s an ongoing project to formalize it in lean, right?
    3:01:08 Kevin Buzzard is actually.
    3:01:08 Yeah.
    3:01:10 Can we take that small tangent?
    3:01:12 Is it, is it, how difficult is that?
    3:01:17 Cause as, as I understand the Fermat’s last, the, the proof for, uh, Fermat’s last theorem
    3:01:19 has like super complicated objects.
    3:01:20 Yeah.
    3:01:22 It’s really difficult to formalize now.
    3:01:22 Yeah.
    3:01:23 I guess, yeah, you’re right.
    3:01:26 The, the objects that they use, um, you can define them.
    3:01:28 Uh, so they’ve been defined in lean.
    3:01:28 Okay.
    3:01:31 So, so just defining what they are can be done.
    3:01:33 Uh, that’s really not trivial, but it’s been done.
    3:01:39 But there’s a lot of really basic facts about, um, these objects that have taken decades
    3:01:41 to prove that they’re, they’re in all these different math papers.
    3:01:44 And so lots of these have to be formalized as well.
    3:01:51 Um, Kevin’s, uh, Kevin Buzzard’s goal, actually, he has a five-year grant to formalize Fermat’s
    3:01:55 class theorem and his aim is that he doesn’t think he will be able to get all the way down
    3:02:00 to the basic axioms, but he wants to formalize it to the point where the only things that he
    3:02:05 needs to rely on as black boxes are things that were known by 1980 to, um, to number theories
    3:02:06 at the time.
    3:02:11 Um, and then some other person or some other work would have to be done to, to, to, to get
    3:02:11 from there.
    3:02:16 Um, so it’s, it’s a different area of mathematics than, um, the type of mathematics I’m used
    3:02:22 to, um, um, in analysis, which is kind of my area, um, the objects we study are kind of
    3:02:23 much closer to the ground.
    3:02:28 We study, I study things like prime numbers and, and, and functions and, and things that
    3:02:35 are within scope of a high school, um, uh, math education to at least, uh, define, um, yeah.
    3:02:39 But then there’s this very advanced algebraic side of number theory where people have been
    3:02:41 building structures upon structures for, for quite a while.
    3:02:44 Um, and it’s, it’s a very sturdy structure.
    3:02:48 There’s a, it’s, it’s, it’s been, it’s been very, um, at the base, at least it’s extremely
    3:02:50 well-developed with textbooks and so forth.
    3:02:56 But, um, um, it does get to the point where, um, if you’re, if you haven’t taken these years
    3:03:00 of study and you want to ask about what, what is going on at, um, like level six of this
    3:03:04 tower, you have to spend quite a bit of time before they can even get to the point where
    3:03:05 you can see, you see something you recognize.
    3:03:13 What inspires you about his journey that we similar, as we talked about seven years, mostly
    3:03:14 working in secret.
    3:03:15 Yeah.
    3:03:17 Uh, yes, that is a romantic, uh, yeah.
    3:03:22 So it kind of fits with the sort of the, the romantic image that I think people have of
    3:03:26 mathematicians to the extent that they think of anything at all as these kind of eccentric,
    3:03:28 uh, you know, wizards or something.
    3:03:34 Um, so that certainly kind of, uh, uh, accentuated that perspective.
    3:03:36 You know, I mean, it’s, it is a great achievement.
    3:03:42 His style of solving problems is so different from my own, um, but which is great.
    3:03:43 I mean, we, we need people like that.
    3:03:44 Can you speak to it?
    3:03:48 Like what, uh, in, in terms of like the, you like the collaborative.
    3:03:52 I like moving on from a problem if it’s giving too much difficulty.
    3:03:57 Um, but you need the people who have the tenacity and the fearlessness.
    3:04:01 Um, you know, I’ve, I’ve collaborated with, with people like that where I want to give
    3:04:05 up, uh, because the first approach that we tried didn’t work and the second one didn’t
    3:04:09 approach, but they’re convinced and they have the third, fourth and the fifth of what works.
    3:04:12 Um, and I’d have to eat my words.
    3:04:12 Okay.
    3:04:15 I didn’t think this was going to work, but yes, you were right all along.
    3:04:20 And we should say for people who don’t know, not only are you known for the brilliance of
    3:04:25 your work, but the incredible productivity, just the number of papers, which are all of very
    3:04:25 high quality.
    3:04:30 So there’s something to be said about being able to jump from topic to topic.
    3:04:31 Yeah.
    3:04:31 It works for me.
    3:04:32 Yeah.
    3:04:35 I mean, there are also people who are very productive and they, they focus very deeply
    3:04:35 on.
    3:04:36 Yeah.
    3:04:38 I think everyone has to find their own workflow.
    3:04:43 Um, like one thing, which is a shame in mathematics is that we have mathematics.
    3:04:46 There’s sort of a one size fits all approach to teaching, teaching mathematics.
    3:04:50 Um, and, you know, so we have a certain curriculum and so forth.
    3:04:54 I mean, you know, maybe like if you do math competitions or something, you get a slightly different
    3:04:54 experience.
    3:05:01 But, um, I think many people, um, they don’t find their, their native math language, uh, until
    3:05:03 very late or usually too late.
    3:05:08 So they, they, they, they stop doing mathematics and they have a bad experience with a teacher who’s
    3:05:10 trying to teach them one way to do mathematics that they don’t like it.
    3:05:18 Um, my theory is that, um, humans don’t come, evolution has not given us a math center of
    3:05:18 our brain directly.
    3:05:24 We have a vision center and a language center and some other centers, um, which have evolution
    3:05:26 as honed, but we, it doesn’t, we don’t have an innate sense of mathematics.
    3:05:35 Um, but our other centers are sophisticated enough that different people, uh, we, we, we can repurpose
    3:05:38 other areas of our brain to do mathematics.
    3:05:41 So some people have figured out how to use the visual center to do mathematics.
    3:05:43 And so they think, think very visually when they do mathematics.
    3:05:47 Some people have repurposed their, their language center and they think very symbolically.
    3:05:52 Um, you know, um, some people like if, if they are very competitive and they, they’re like
    3:05:57 gaming, there’s a type of, there’s a part of your brain that’s very good at, at, at, uh,
    3:06:01 at solving puzzles and games and, and, and, and that can be repurposed.
    3:06:07 But like when I talk to other mathematicians, you know, they don’t quite think that I can
    3:06:10 tell that they’re using some of the different styles of, of thinking than I am.
    3:06:14 I mean, not, not disjoint, but they, they may prefer visual.
    3:06:16 Like I’m, I, I, I don’t actually prefer visual so much.
    3:06:18 I need lots of visual aids myself.
    3:06:23 Um, you know, mathematics provides a common language so we can still talk to each other,
    3:06:25 even if we are thinking in different ways.
    3:06:31 But you can tell there’s a different set of subsystems being used in the thinking process.
    3:06:33 Like they, they take different paths.
    3:06:35 They’re very quick at things that I struggle with and vice versa.
    3:06:38 Um, and yet they still get to the same goal.
    3:06:44 Um, and yeah, but I mean, the way we educate, unless you have like a personalized tutor or
    3:06:48 something, I mean, education sort of just by initial scale has to be mass produced.
    3:06:52 You know, you have to teach the 30 kids, you know, they have 30 different styles.
    3:06:54 You can’t, you can’t teach 30 different ways.
    3:07:00 On that topic, what advice would you give to students, uh, young students who are struggling
    3:07:04 with math and, but are interested in it and would like to get better?
    3:07:06 Is there something in this?
    3:07:06 Yeah.
    3:07:10 Um, in this complicated educational context, what, what would you, yeah, it’s a tricky
    3:07:10 problem.
    3:07:15 One nice thing is that there are now lots of sources for my faculty enrichment outside the
    3:07:15 classroom.
    3:07:19 Um, so in, in, in my day, there already, there are math competitions.
    3:07:22 Um, and you know, they’re also like popular math books in the library.
    3:07:26 Um, yeah, but, but now you have, you know, YouTube, uh, there are, there are forums just
    3:07:32 devoted to solving, you know, math puzzles and, um, and math shows up in, in other places,
    3:07:36 you know, like, um, for example, there, there are hobbyists who play poker, uh, for fun.
    3:07:42 Uh, and, um, um, they, they, they, you know, they are for very specific reasons, are interested
    3:07:43 in very specific probability questions.
    3:07:50 Um, and, and, uh, they actually, you know, there’s a community of amateur probabilists in,
    3:07:53 in, in, in poker, um, in chess and baseball.
    3:07:58 I mean, there’s, there’s, there’s, uh, yeah, um, there’s math all over the place.
    3:08:03 Um, and I’m, I’m, I’m hoping actually with, uh, with these new sort of tools for lean and
    3:08:08 so forth, that actually we can incorporate the broader public into math research projects.
    3:08:12 Um, like this is almost, it doesn’t happen at all currently.
    3:08:17 So in the sciences, there’s some scope for citizen science, like astronomers, uh, they’re
    3:08:21 amateurs who would discover comets and there’s biologists, they’re people who could identify
    3:08:26 butterflies and so forth, um, and in method, um, there are a small number of activities
    3:08:30 where, um, amateur mathematicians can like discover new primes and so forth.
    3:08:36 But, but previously, because we have to verify every single contribution, um, like most mathematical
    3:08:40 research projects, it would not help to have input from the general public.
    3:08:45 In fact, it would, it would just be, be time consuming because just error checking and everything.
    3:08:50 Um, but you know, one thing about these formalization projects is that they are bringing together
    3:08:52 more, bringing in more people.
    3:08:56 So I’m sure that high school students have already contributed to some of these formalizing
    3:08:57 projects who contributed to MathLib.
    3:09:02 Um, you know, you don’t need to be a PhD holder to just work on one atomic thing.
    3:09:08 There’s something about the formalization here that also, as a very first step, opens it up
    3:09:10 to the programming community too.
    3:09:11 Yes.
    3:09:13 The people who are already comfortable with programming.
    3:09:18 It seems like programming is somehow maybe just the feeling, but it feels more accessible
    3:09:20 to folks than math.
    3:09:26 Math is seen as this like extreme, especially modern mathematics seen as this extremely difficult
    3:09:29 to enter area and programming is not.
    3:09:30 So that could be just an entry point.
    3:09:33 You can execute code and you can get results, you know, you can print a whole world pretty
    3:09:34 quickly.
    3:09:41 Um, you know, like if, uh, if programming was taught as an almost entirely theoretical subject
    3:09:47 where you just taught the computer science, the theory of functions and, and, and, and, and
    3:09:50 routines and so forth and, and outside of some, some very specialized homework assignments,
    3:09:56 you’re not actually programmed like on the weekend for fun or yeah, that would be as considered
    3:09:56 as hard as math.
    3:10:04 Um, yeah, so as I said, you know, there are communities of non-mathematicians where they’re
    3:10:08 deploying math for some very specific purpose, you know, like, like optimizing their poker game
    3:10:12 and, and for them, then math becomes fun for them.
    3:10:16 Uh, what advice would you give in general to young people, how to pick a career, how
    3:10:17 to find themselves?
    3:10:20 Like that’s a tough, tough, tough question.
    3:10:20 Yeah.
    3:10:25 So, um, there’s a lot of certainty now in the world, you know, I mean, I, there was this period
    3:10:30 after the war where, uh, at least in the West, you know, if you came from a good demographic,
    3:10:35 you, uh, you know, like you, there was a very stable path to it, to a good career.
    3:10:40 You go to college, you get an education, you pick one profession and you stick to it.
    3:10:42 It’s becoming much more of a thing of the past.
    3:10:46 So I think you just have to be adaptable and flexible.
    3:10:50 I think people will have to get skills that are transferable, you know, like, like learning
    3:10:53 one specific programming language or one specific subject of mathematics or something.
    3:10:58 It’s, it’s, it’s, that itself is not a super transferable skill, but sort of knowing how
    3:11:05 to, um, reason with, with abstract concepts or how to problem solve and things go wrong.
    3:11:10 So anyway, these are things which I think we will still need, even as our tools get better
    3:11:13 and, you know, you’ll, you’ll be working with AI as well and so forth.
    3:11:15 But actually you’re an interesting case study.
    3:11:22 I mean, you’re like one of the great living mathematicians, right?
    3:11:26 And then you had a way of doing things and then all of a sudden you start learning.
    3:11:31 I mean, first of all, you kept learning new fields, but you learn lean.
    3:11:33 That’s not, that’s a non-trivial thing to learn.
    3:11:38 Like that’s a, yeah, that’s a, for a lot of people, that’s an extremely uncomfortable
    3:11:39 leap to take, right?
    3:11:40 Yeah.
    3:11:41 A lot of mathematicians.
    3:11:44 First of all, I’ve always been interested in new ways due to mathematics.
    3:11:49 I, I, I feel like a lot of the ways we do things right now are inefficient.
    3:11:55 Um, I, I, I spent, I, me and my colleagues, we spend a lot of time doing very routine computations
    3:11:58 or doing things that other mathematicians would instantly know how to do.
    3:12:02 And we don’t know how to do them and why can’t we search and get a quick response and
    3:12:02 so on.
    3:12:07 So that’s why I’ve always been interested in exploring new workflows.
    3:12:13 About four or five years ago, I was on a committee where we had to ask for ideas for interesting
    3:12:14 workshops to run at a math institute.
    3:12:19 And at the time, Peter Schultz had just, uh, formalized one of his, his, um, new theorems.
    3:12:25 And, um, there’s some other developments in computer assisted proof that look quite interesting.
    3:12:29 And I said, oh, we should, we should, uh, um, we should run a workshop on this.
    3:12:29 This is a pretty good idea.
    3:12:33 Um, and then I was a bit too enthusiastic about this idea.
    3:12:36 So I, I got voluntold to actually run it.
    3:12:41 Um, so I did with a bunch of other people, Kevin Buzzard and Jordan Ellenberg and a bunch
    3:12:42 of other people.
    3:12:45 Um, and it was, it was a, a, a, a nice success.
    3:12:49 We brought together a bunch of mathematicians and computer scientists and other people.
    3:12:51 And, and we got up to speed on the state of the yard.
    3:12:57 Um, and it was really interesting, um, developments that, but most mathematicians didn’t know what
    3:12:57 was going on.
    3:13:02 Um, um, that lots of nice proofs of concept, you know, just sort of hints of, of what was
    3:13:02 going to happen.
    3:13:06 This was just before chat GBD, but there was even then there was one talk about language
    3:13:09 models and the potential, um, capability of those in the future.
    3:13:12 So that got me excited about the subject.
    3:13:16 So I started giving talks, um, about this is something we should, more of us should start
    3:13:22 looking at, um, now that I arranged the runner’s conference and then chat GPT came out and like
    3:13:23 suddenly AI was everywhere.
    3:13:28 And so, uh, I got interviewed a lot, um, about, about this topic.
    3:13:33 Um, and in particular, um, the interaction between AI and formal proof assistants.
    3:13:34 And I said, yeah, they should be combined.
    3:13:38 This, this is, this is, um, this is perfect synergy to happen here.
    3:13:42 And at some point I realized that I have to actually do not just talk the talk, but walk
    3:13:45 the walk, you know, like, you know, I don’t work in machine learning and I don’t work
    3:13:49 in proof formalization and there’s a limit to how much I can just rely on authority and
    3:13:51 saying, you know, I, I, I’m a, I’m a, I’m a mathematician.
    3:13:52 Just trust me.
    3:13:55 You know, when I say that this is going to change mathematics and I’m not doing it any, and I
    3:13:56 don’t do any of it myself.
    3:14:02 So I felt like I had to actually, uh, uh, justify it.
    3:14:07 You know, a lot of what I get into actually, um, I don’t quite see an advice as how much
    3:14:08 time I’m going to spend on it.
    3:14:14 And it’s only after I’m sort of waist deep in, in, in, in a project that I, I realized by
    3:14:14 that point I’m committed.
    3:14:19 Well, that’s deeply admirable that you’re willing to go into the fray, be in some small
    3:14:21 way, beginner, right?
    3:14:26 Or have some of the sort of challenges that a beginner would, right?
    3:14:29 It’s new, new concepts, new ways of thinking.
    3:14:36 Also, you know, sucking at a thing that others, I think, I think in that talk, you know, you
    3:14:40 could be a field metal winning mathematician and an undergrad knows something better.
    3:14:41 Yeah.
    3:14:47 Um, I think mathematics inherently, I mean, mathematics is so huge these days that nobody
    3:14:48 knows all of modern mathematics.
    3:14:55 Um, and inevitably we make mistakes and, um, you know, uh, you can’t cover up your mistakes
    3:14:57 with just sort of bravado.
    3:15:01 And, and, uh, I mean, because people will ask for your proofs and if you don’t have the
    3:15:02 proofs, you don’t have the proofs.
    3:15:03 Um, I don’t love math.
    3:15:04 Yeah.
    3:15:06 So it does keep us honest.
    3:15:11 I mean, not, I mean, you can still, uh, it’s not a perfect, uh, panacea, but I think, uh,
    3:15:16 uh, we do have more of a culture of admitting error than, cause we’re forced to all the time.
    3:15:18 Big, ridiculous question.
    3:15:19 I’m sorry for it.
    3:15:23 Once again, who is the greatest mathematician of all time?
    3:15:26 Maybe one who’s no longer with us.
    3:15:28 Uh, who are the candidates?
    3:15:32 Euler, Gauss, Newton, Ramanujan, Hilbert.
    3:15:35 So first of all, as I mentioned before, like there’s, there’s some time dependence.
    3:15:37 On the day.
    3:15:37 Yeah.
    3:15:41 Like, like if you, if you, if you, if you pop cumulatively over time, for example, Euclid
    3:15:44 like, like sort of like is, is, is one of the leading contenders.
    3:15:50 Um, and then maybe some unnamed anonymous mathematicians before that, um, you know, whoever came up with
    3:15:55 the concept of numbers, you know, um, do mathematicians today still feel the impact of
    3:16:00 Hilbert just directly of what everything that’s happened in the 20th century.
    3:16:00 Yeah.
    3:16:00 Yeah.
    3:16:01 Hilbert spaces.
    3:16:05 We have lots of things that are named after him, uh, of course, just the arrangement of
    3:16:07 mathematics and just the introduction of certain concepts.
    3:16:10 I mean, 23 problems have been extremely influential.
    3:16:16 There’s some strange power to the declaring which problems are hard to solve.
    3:16:18 The statement of the open problems.
    3:16:19 Yeah.
    3:16:22 I mean, you know, this is bystander effect everywhere.
    3:16:27 Like if, if no one says you should do X, everyone just sort of mills around waiting for somebody
    3:16:30 else to, to, uh, to do something and, and like nothing gets done.
    3:16:35 Um, so, and, and like, like it’s the point of, one thing that actually, uh, you have to
    3:16:39 teach undergraduates in mathematics is that you should always try something.
    3:16:45 So, um, you see a lot of paralysis, um, in an undergraduate trying a math problem.
    3:16:49 If they recognize that there’s a certain technique that, that can be applied, they will try it.
    3:16:53 But there are problems for which they see none of their standard techniques obviously applies.
    3:16:56 And the common reaction is then just paralysis.
    3:16:58 I don’t know what to do.
    3:17:01 I, oh, um, I think there’s a quote from the Simpsons.
    3:17:03 I’ve tried nothing and I’m all out of ideas.
    3:17:11 Um, so, you know, like the next step then is to try anything, like no matter how stupid, um, and in fact,
    3:17:12 it’s almost the stupid of the better.
    3:17:18 Um, which, you know, I’m, I think we’re just almost guaranteed to fail, but the way it fails
    3:17:19 is going to be instructive.
    3:17:23 Um, like it fails because you, you, you’re not at all taking into account this hypothesis.
    3:17:24 Oh, this hypothesis must be useful.
    3:17:25 That’s a clue.
    3:17:30 I think you also suggested somewhere this, this fascinating approach, which really stuck with
    3:17:32 me as they’re using it.
    3:17:32 It really works.
    3:17:35 I think you said it’s called structured procrastination.
    3:17:36 No, yes.
    3:17:38 It’s when you really don’t want to do a thing.
    3:17:41 Do you imagine a thing you don’t want to do more?
    3:17:42 Yes, yes, yes.
    3:17:43 That’s worse than that.
    3:17:47 And then in that way you procrastinate by not doing the thing that’s worse.
    3:17:48 Yeah, yeah.
    3:17:50 That’s a nice, it’s a nice hack.
    3:17:50 It actually works.
    3:17:52 Yeah, yeah.
    3:17:57 There’s, um, I mean, with anything like, you know, I mean, like you’ve, um, psychology is
    3:17:58 really important.
    3:18:02 Like you, you, you, you talk to athletes like marathon runners and so forth and, you know,
    3:18:05 and they talk about what’s the most important thing is that the training regimen or the diet
    3:18:06 and so forth.
    3:18:11 So much of it is like your psychology, um, you know, just tricking yourself to, to think that
    3:18:12 the problem is feasible.
    3:18:14 Um, so that you can be motivated to do it.
    3:18:19 Is there something our human mind will never be able to comprehend?
    3:18:23 Well, I sort of, I guess a mathematician, I mean, you know, it’s my induction.
    3:18:28 I, it’s really, there must be some, it’s a really large number that you can’t understand.
    3:18:30 That was the first thing that came to mind.
    3:18:36 So that, but even broadly, is there, are we, is there something about our mind that we’re
    3:18:40 going to be limited even with the help of mathematics?
    3:18:41 Well, okay.
    3:18:44 I mean, it’s like, how much augmentation are you willing?
    3:18:49 Like, for example, if I didn’t even have pen and paper, um, like if I had no technology
    3:18:50 whatsoever, okay.
    3:18:51 So I’ve not allowed blackboard, pen and paper.
    3:18:55 You’re already much more limited than you would be.
    3:18:56 Incredibly limited.
    3:18:57 Even language.
    3:18:58 The English language is a technology.
    3:19:02 Uh, it’s, uh, it’s one that’s been very internalized.
    3:19:03 So you’re right.
    3:19:07 They’re really, the, the, the, the formulation of the problem is incorrect because there really
    3:19:10 is no longer a, just a solo human.
    3:19:17 We’re already augmented in extremely complicated, intricate ways, right?
    3:19:17 Yeah.
    3:19:17 Yeah.
    3:19:19 So we’re already like a collective intelligence.
    3:19:20 Yes.
    3:19:20 Yeah.
    3:19:21 I guess.
    3:19:26 So humanity plural has much more intelligence in principle on his good days.
    3:19:29 than, than the individual humans put together.
    3:19:30 Uh, it can all have less.
    3:19:30 Okay.
    3:19:32 But, um, um, yeah.
    3:19:36 So yeah, math, math, math, math, math, math, the math community plural is, is, is incredibly
    3:19:43 super intelligent, uh, entity, um, that, uh, no single human mathematician can, can come
    3:19:44 close to, to, to replicating.
    3:19:47 You see it a little bit on these like question analysis sites.
    3:19:50 Um, uh, so this math overflow, which is the math version of stack overflow.
    3:19:55 And like, sometimes you get like this very quick responses to very difficult questions from
    3:19:56 the community.
    3:20:00 Um, and it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s a pleasure to watch actually as a, as an expert.
    3:20:06 I’m a fan spectator of that, uh, of that site, just seeing the brilliance of the different
    3:20:12 people there, um, the depth of knowledge that some people have and the willingness to engage
    3:20:15 in the, in the rigor and the nuance of the particular question.
    3:20:16 It’s pretty cool to watch.
    3:20:17 It’s fun.
    3:20:18 It’s almost like just fun to watch.
    3:20:23 Uh, what gives you hope about this whole thing we have going on human civilization?
    3:20:29 I think, uh, yeah, uh, the, uh, the younger generation is always like, like really creative
    3:20:30 and enthusiastic and, and inventive.
    3:20:36 Um, it’s a pleasure working with, with, with, uh, with, uh, with, uh, with young students.
    3:20:43 Um, you know, the, uh, the progress of science tells us that the problems that used to be really
    3:20:48 difficult can become extremely, you know, can become like trivial to solve, you know,
    3:20:54 I mean, like it was like navigation, you know, just, just knowing where you were on the planet
    3:20:55 was this horrendous problem.
    3:21:00 People, people died, um, you know, uh, or lost fortunes because they couldn’t navigate,
    3:21:03 you know, and we have devices in our pockets that do this automatically for us, like it’s
    3:21:06 a completely solved problem, you know?
    3:21:10 So things that are seem unfeasible for us now could be maybe just sort of homework exercises
    3:21:11 for things.
    3:21:16 Yeah, one of the things I find really sad about the finiteness of life is that I won’t
    3:21:21 get to see all the cool things we create as a civilization, you know, that, cause it, in
    3:21:26 the next hundred years, 200 years, just imagine showing, showing up in 200 years.
    3:21:26 Yeah.
    3:21:30 Well, already plenty has happened, you know, like if, if you could go back in time and talk
    3:21:32 to your, your teenage self or something, you know what I mean?
    3:21:33 Yeah.
    3:21:39 And just the internet and, and now AI, I mean, again, they’ve been into, they’re beginning
    3:21:42 to be internalized and say, yeah, of course, uh, and AI can understand our voice.
    3:21:47 And, and give reasonable, you know, slightly incorrect answers to, to any question, but
    3:21:49 you know, this was mind blowing even two years ago.
    3:21:55 And in the moment, it’s hilarious to watch on the internet and so on, the, the drama, uh,
    3:21:57 people take everything for granted very quickly.
    3:22:01 And then they, we humans seem to entertain ourselves with drama.
    3:22:06 Well, out of anything that’s created, somebody needs to take one opinion and another person
    3:22:08 needs to take an opposite opinion and argue with each other about it.
    3:22:13 But when you look at the arc of things, I mean, it’s just even in progress of robotics.
    3:22:18 Just to take a step back and be like, wow, this is beautiful that we humans are able to create
    3:22:18 this.
    3:22:19 Yeah.
    3:22:23 When the infrastructure and the culture is, is healthy, you know, the community of humans
    3:22:29 can be so much more intelligent and mature and, and, and rational than the individuals
    3:22:30 within it.
    3:22:35 Well, one place I can always count on rationality is the comment section of your blog, which
    3:22:36 I’m a big fan of.
    3:22:38 There’s a lot of really smart people there.
    3:22:43 And thank you, uh, of course, for, uh, for putting those ideas out on the blog.
    3:22:50 And it’s, I can’t tell you how, uh, honored I am that you would spend your time with me today.
    3:22:52 I was looking forward to this for a long time.
    3:22:54 Terry, I’m a huge fan.
    3:22:57 Um, you inspire me, you inspire millions of people.
    3:22:58 Thank you so much for talking.
    3:22:58 Thank you.
    3:22:58 It was a pleasure.
    3:23:02 Thanks for listening to this conversation with Terrence Tao.
    3:23:07 To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description or at lexfreedman.com
    3:23:08 slash sponsors.
    3:23:13 And now let me leave you with some words from Galileo Galilei.
    3:23:19 Mathematics is the language with which God has written the universe.
    3:23:24 Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
    3:23:41 Thanks for listening and hope to see you next time.

    Terence Tao is widely considered to be one of the greatest mathematicians in history. He won the Fields Medal and the Breakthrough Prize in Mathematics, and has contributed to a wide range of fields from fluid dynamics with Navier-Stokes equations to mathematical physics & quantum mechanics, prime numbers & analytics number theory, harmonic analysis, compressed sensing, random matrix theory, combinatorics, and progress on many of the hardest problems in the history of mathematics.
    Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep472-sc
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    Transcript:
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    CONTACT LEX:
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    EPISODE LINKS:
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    OUTLINE:
    (00:00) – Introduction
    (00:36) – Sponsors, Comments, and Reflections
    (09:49) – First hard problem
    (15:16) – Navier–Stokes singularity
    (35:25) – Game of life
    (42:00) – Infinity
    (47:07) – Math vs Physics
    (53:26) – Nature of reality
    (1:16:08) – Theory of everything
    (1:22:09) – General relativity
    (1:25:37) – Solving difficult problems
    (1:29:00) – AI-assisted theorem proving
    (1:41:50) – Lean programming language
    (1:51:50) – DeepMind’s AlphaProof
    (1:56:45) – Human mathematicians vs AI
    (2:06:37) – AI winning the Fields Medal
    (2:13:47) – Grigori Perelman
    (2:26:29) – Twin Prime Conjecture
    (2:43:04) – Collatz conjecture
    (2:49:50) – P = NP
    (2:52:43) – Fields Medal
    (3:00:18) – Andrew Wiles and Fermat’s Last Theorem
    (3:04:15) – Productivity
    (3:06:54) – Advice for young people
    (3:15:17) – The greatest mathematician of all time

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  • #471 – Sundar Pichai: CEO of Google and Alphabet

    AI transcript
    0:00:05 The following is a conversation with Sundar Pichai, the CEO of Google and Alphabet.
    0:00:12 And now a quick few second mention of the sponsor. Check them out in the description or at
    0:00:19 lexfreedman.com slash sponsors. It’s the best way to support this podcast. We got Tax Network USA
    0:00:27 for taxes, BetterHelp for mental health, Element for electrolytes, Shopify for selling stuff online,
    0:00:33 and AG1 for your daily multivitamin drink. Choose wisely, my friends. And now on to the
    0:00:37 philateries. You can skip them if you like, but if you do, please still check out our sponsors. I
    0:00:41 enjoy their stuff. Maybe you will too. If you want to get in touch with me for whatever reason,
    0:00:47 go to lexfreedman.com slash contact. All right, let’s go. This episode is brought to you by Tax
    0:00:55 Network USA, a full service tax firm focused on solving tax problems for individuals and for
    0:01:00 small businesses. I remember when I was preparing for the Roman Empire episode, I came across
    0:01:08 a lot of places where there was a rigorous discussion about the intricate tax collection
    0:01:17 algorithms used by the Roman Empire. The reason I use the word algorithms is basically there’s a
    0:01:23 systematic process for determining how much you owe based on your location, based on your status,
    0:01:30 based on your job, based on all these kinds of factors. It’s sad, but those rules in the early
    0:01:36 days initially give power to the individual because they protect the individual. But when they become
    0:01:45 too complicated, then the bureaucracy, the centralized power starts to abuse its power by using the rules.
    0:01:52 And then the individual loses power because they can’t figure out the complexity of the rules. And
    0:01:57 that’s essentially why you need the CPAs and the firms to figure out the complexity. Anyway, these guys are
    0:02:05 good. Talk with one of their strategists for free today. Call 1-800-958-1000 or go to
    0:02:16 tnusa.com slash lex. This episode is brought to you by BetterHelp, spelled H-E-L-P help. I got to recently meet a lot of
    0:02:22 interesting people when I visited San Francisco. I was there in part to celebrate Yoshibak and the newly launched
    0:02:27 California Institute for Machine Consciousness. I, by the way, encourage you to check it out. I think it’s
    0:02:33 C-I-M-C dot A-I. And there I talked to a lot of brilliant people and one of them was a grad student
    0:02:40 studying the so-called dark triad. These are the three personality traits of narcissism,
    0:02:47 Machiavellianism, and psychopathy. A little bit for a brief moment, it made me wish I took that path
    0:02:54 of studying the human mind. And perhaps that is the indirect way. Through all the A-I, through all the
    0:03:01 programming through all the building of systems, and now with a podcast, maybe I somehow sneaked up
    0:03:07 to that dream in the end. Anyway, I say all that because these topics are studying the extremes of
    0:03:13 the human mind. But of course, the extremes are just the edges of an incredibly complicated system
    0:03:21 that’s just so fascinating to study, to reflect on, to put a mirror to all those processes that you do
    0:03:26 through talk therapy. They’re just fascinating. Anyway, you can check them out at betterhelp.com
    0:03:31 slash lex and save on your first month. That’s betterhelp.com slash lex. This episode is also
    0:03:37 brought to you by Element, my daily zero sugar and delicious electrolyte mix. I’m not going to go down
    0:03:43 the rabbit hole, but there’s a lot of interesting studies that measure the decreased performance of
    0:03:48 the human brain. So cognitive processing speed, for example. By what amount does it decrease? Reaction
    0:03:56 time. By what amount does it decrease? When you decrease the brain’s sodium levels, for example. Sodium
    0:04:00 and potassium really are important on a chemical level for the functioning of the human brain.
    0:04:05 Now, obviously, all throughout human history, people understood the value of water. But
    0:04:12 as a medical concept, the concept of dehydration only came about in the 19th century. If we just look at
    0:04:17 the history of medicine, it’s kind of hilarious how little we knew before. And it makes me think we
    0:04:24 know very little now relative to what we will know in a hundred and a thousand years. The human body,
    0:04:31 the biological system of the human body is incredibly complicated. So for us to have the certainty that we
    0:04:39 sometimes exude about the human body, about what we understand about disease, about health, it’s kind of
    0:04:46 funny. Anyway, get a sample pack for free with any purchase. Try it at drinkelement.com slash lex.
    0:04:53 This episode is also brought to you by Shopify, a platform designed for anyone to sell anywhere with
    0:04:59 a great looking online store. Once again, I do this often where I don’t just or at all talk about
    0:05:07 Shopify, but instead talk about the CEO of Shopify, Toby. He once again, like I mentioned with Yoshibak
    0:05:15 and the newly launched CIMC, California Institute of Machine Consciousness. He’s a big supporter of
    0:05:20 that too. And a bunch of people have asked me why I have not done a podcast with him yet. I don’t know
    0:05:24 either. I’m sure it’s going to happen soon. And I haven’t seen him in quite a while.
    0:05:32 A lot of people from a lot of walks of life deeply respect him for his intellect, for the way he does
    0:05:37 business and just for the human being he is. So anyway, not sure why I mentioned that here, but
    0:05:44 back to what this is supposed to be. You can sell shirts online like I did at lexcreement.com slash
    0:05:51 shop. It’s super easy to set up a store. I did in a few minutes. What else can I say? You should do it
    0:05:58 too. Sign up for $1 per month trial period at shopify.com slash lex. That’s all lowercase. Go to
    0:06:04 shopify.com slash lex to take your business to the next level today. This episode is also brought to
    0:06:10 you by AG1, an all-in-one daily drink to support better health and peak performance. I was training
    0:06:16 jiu-jitsu the other day in that wonderful Texas heat. And I was reminded, first of all, how long
    0:06:24 my journey with jiu-jitsu has been and how fulfilling it has been. How interesting the exploration of the
    0:06:32 puzzle of two humans trying to break each other’s arms and legs, plus the wrestling and the grappling
    0:06:40 component. Really interesting. Leverage, power, speed, all that could be neutralized. How to control
    0:06:48 a human body with leverage, with technique, as opposed to raw generally misapplied strength, I should say.
    0:06:55 Anyway, because there are times where there’s long stretches of weeks where I don’t train. You feel it in
    0:07:02 the cardio. You do a bunch of rounds and you just, the breaths are shallow. You feel like the mind is
    0:07:08 hazy from exhaustion. That you’re a little bit more risk-averse because you don’t want to end up in a
    0:07:14 bad position. Have to battle out of that bad position after many rounds of exhausting battles. And after
    0:07:22 sat training session when I got home, I enjoyed a nice cold AG1. They’ll give you a one-month supply of
    0:07:28 fish oil when you sign up at drinkag1.com slash lex. This is the Lex Friedman podcast. To support
    0:07:35 it, please check out our sponsors in the description or at lexfriedman.com slash sponsors. And now,
    0:07:38 dear friends, hear Sundar Bichai.
    0:08:02 your life story is inspiring to a lot of people. It’s inspiring to me. You grew up in India, whole family
    0:08:10 living in a humble two-room apartment, very little, almost no access to technology. And from those humble
    0:08:21 beginnings, you rose to lead a $2 trillion technology company. So if you could travel back in time and told that,
    0:08:26 let’s say, 12-year-old Sundar, you’re now leading one of the largest companies in human history, what do you
    0:08:28 think that young kid would say?
    0:08:37 I would have probably laughed it off. You know, probably too far-fetched to imagine or believe at that time.
    0:08:39 You would have to explain the internet first.
    0:08:49 For sure. I mean, computers to me at that time, you know, I was 12 in 1984. So probably, you know,
    0:08:53 by then I had started reading about them. I hadn’t seen one.
    0:08:56 What was that place like? Take me to your childhood.
    0:09:02 You know, I grew up in Chennai. It’s in south of India. It’s a beautiful, bustling city. Lots of people,
    0:09:10 lots of energy. You know, simple life, definitely like fond memories of playing cricket outside the
    0:09:15 home. We just used to play on the streets. All the neighborhood kids would come out and we would
    0:09:22 play until it got dark and we couldn’t play anymore barefoot. Traffic would come. It would just stop the
    0:09:27 game. Everything would drive through and you would just continue playing, right? Just to kind of get the
    0:09:33 visual in your head. You know, pre-computed, there’s a lot of free time. Now that I think about it,
    0:09:40 now you have to go and seek that quiet solitude or something. Newspapers, books is how I gained access
    0:09:47 to the world’s information at the time, you will. My grandfather was a big influence. He worked in the
    0:09:55 post office. He was so good with language. His English, you know, his handwriting till today is the
    0:10:00 most beautiful handwriting I’ve ever seen. He would write so clearly. He was so articulate.
    0:10:09 And so he kind of got me introduced into books. He loved politics. So we could talk about anything.
    0:10:16 And, you know, that was there in my family throughout. So lots of books, trashy books, good books,
    0:10:23 everything from Ayn Rand to books on philosophy to stupid crime novels. So books was a big part of my
    0:10:29 life. But that kind of, this whole, it’s not surprising I ended up at Google because Google’s
    0:10:35 mission kind of always resonated deeply with me. This access to knowledge, I was hungry for it,
    0:10:41 but definitely have fond memories of my childhood. Access to knowledge was there. So that’s the wealth
    0:10:48 we had. You know, every aspect of technology I had to wait for a while. I’ve obviously spoken before
    0:10:52 about how long it took for us to get a phone, about five years, but it’s not the only thing.
    0:10:53 A telephone.
    0:11:01 There was a five-year waiting list. And we got a rotary telephone. But it dramatically changed our
    0:11:07 lives. You know, people would come to our house to make calls to their loved ones. You know, I would
    0:11:11 have to go all the way to the hospital to get blood test records. And it would take two hours to go.
    0:11:17 And they would say, sorry, it’s not ready. Come back the next day. Two hours to come back. And that became a
    0:11:22 five-minute thing. So as a kid, like, I mean, this light bulb went in my head, you know, this power of
    0:11:29 technology to kind of change people’s lives. We had no running water. You know, it was a massive drought.
    0:11:36 So they would get water in these trucks, maybe eight buckets per household. So me and my brother,
    0:11:41 sometimes my mom, we would wait in line, get that and bring it back home.
    0:11:49 Many years later, like, we had running water, and we had a water heater. And you would get hot water to
    0:11:55 take a shower. I mean, like, so, you know, for me, everything was discreet like that.
    0:12:02 And so I’ve always had this thing, you know, first-hand feeling of, like, how technology can
    0:12:10 dramatically change, like, your life and, like, the opportunity it brings. So, you know, that was kind
    0:12:16 of a subliminal takeaway for me throughout growing up. And, you know, I kind of actually observed it and
    0:12:24 felt it, you know. So we had to convince my dad for a long time to get a VCR. Do you know what a VCR is?
    0:12:32 Yeah. I’m trying to date you now. But, you know, because before that, you only had, like, kind of
    0:12:40 one TV channel, right? That’s it. And so, you know, you can watch movies or something like that. But
    0:12:48 this was by the time I was in 12th grade, we got a VCR, you know. It was a, like, a Panasonic, which we
    0:12:53 had to go to some, like, shop, which had kind of smuggled it in, I guess. And that’s where we bought a VCR.
    0:13:00 But then being able to record, like, a World Cup football game and then, or, like, get bootleg
    0:13:06 videotapes and watch movies, like, all that. So, like, you know, I had these discrete memories growing
    0:13:13 up. And so, you know, always left me with the feeling of, like, how getting access to technology
    0:13:15 drives that step change in your life.
    0:13:19 I don’t think you’ll ever be able to equal the first time you get hot water.
    0:13:24 To have that convenience of going and opening a tap and have hot water come out? Yeah.
    0:13:32 It’s interesting. We take for granted the progress we’ve made. If you look at human history, just those
    0:13:38 plots that look at GDP across 2,000 years, and you see that exponential growth to where most of the
    0:13:44 progress happened since the Industrial Revolution. And we just take for granted. We forget how far we’ve
    0:13:53 gone. So our ability to understand how great we have it and also how quickly technology can improve
    0:13:58 is quite poor. Oh, I mean, it’s extraordinary. You know, I go back to India now, the power of
    0:14:03 mobile. You know, it’s mind-blowing to see the progress through the arc of time. It’s phenomenal.
    0:14:11 What advice would you give to young folks listening to this all over the world who look up to you and
    0:14:17 find your story inspiring? Who want to be maybe the next Sundar Brachai? Who want to start, create
    0:14:21 companies, build something that has a lot of impact on the world?
    0:14:26 Look, you have a lot of luck along the way, but you obviously have to make smart choices. You’re
    0:14:31 thinking about what you want to do. Your brain is telling you something. But when you do things,
    0:14:36 I think it’s important to kind of get that, listen to your heart and see whether you actually enjoy
    0:14:45 doing it, right? That feeling of, if you love what you do, it’s so much easier and you’re going to
    0:14:50 see the best version of yourself. It’s easier said than done. I think it’s tough to find things
    0:14:57 you love doing. But I think kind of listening to your heart a bit more than your mind in terms of
    0:15:02 figuring out what you want to do, I think is one of the best things I would tell people.
    0:15:10 the second thing is, I mean, trying to work with people who you feel at various points in my life. I’ve
    0:15:16 worked with people who I felt were better than me. I kind of like, you know, you almost are sitting in a
    0:15:21 room talking to someone and they’re like, wow, like, you know, you know, and you want that feeling a few
    0:15:27 times, trying to get yourself in a position where you’re working with people who you feel
    0:15:34 are kind of like stretching your abilities is what helps you grow, I think. So putting yourself in
    0:15:41 uncomfortable situations. And I think often you’ll surprise yourself. So I think being open-minded enough
    0:15:46 to kind of put yourself in those positions is maybe another thing I would say.
    0:15:51 Well, lessons can we learn, maybe from an outsider perspective, for me, looking at your story and
    0:15:57 gotten to know you a bit, you’re humble, you’re kind. Usually when I think of somebody who has had a
    0:16:03 journey like yours and climbs to the very top of leadership, they’re usually in a cutthroat world,
    0:16:10 they’re usually going to be a bit of an asshole. So what wisdom are we supposed to draw from the fact
    0:16:17 that your general approach is of balance, of humility, of kindness, listening to everybody?
    0:16:18 What’s your secret?
    0:16:25 I do get angry. I do get frustrated. I have the same emotions all of us do, right, in the context of work
    0:16:35 and everything. But a few things, right? I think, you know, I, over time, I figured out the best way to
    0:16:42 get the most out of people. You know, you kind of find mission-oriented people who are on the shad
    0:16:49 journey, who have this inner drive to excellence, to do the best. And, you know, you kind of motivate
    0:16:55 people and, and, and you can, you can achieve a lot that way. Right. And so it, it often tends to
    0:17:01 work out that way. But have there been times like, you know, I lose it? Yeah. But, you know, not maybe
    0:17:10 less often than others. And maybe over the years, less and less so, because, you know, I find it’s not
    0:17:12 needed to achieve what you need to do.
    0:17:14 So losing your shit has not been productive.
    0:17:20 Yeah. Less often than not. I think people respond to that. Yeah. They may do stuff to react to that.
    0:17:26 Like what you, you actually want them to do the right thing. And, and, and so, you know, maybe there’s a
    0:17:34 bit of like sports, you know, you know, I’m a sports fan in football coaches, uh, in soccer, uh, that football, uh,
    0:17:40 you know, people, people often talk about like man management, right? Great coaches do. Right. I think there is
    0:17:44 an element of that in our lives. How do you get the best out of the people you work with?
    0:17:50 You know, at times you’re working with people who, who are so committed to achieving. If they’ve done
    0:17:57 something wrong, they feel it more than you, uh, you do. Right. So you treat them differently than,
    0:18:01 you know, occasionally there are people who you need to clearly let them know, like that wasn’t okay or
    0:18:05 whatever it is. But I’ve often found that not to be the case.
    0:18:12 And sometimes the right words at the right time spoken firmly can reverberate through time.
    0:18:18 Also, sometimes the unspoken words, you know, people can sometimes see that, like, you know,
    0:18:24 you’re unhappy without you saying it. And so sometimes the silence can, uh, deliver that message even
    0:18:30 more. Sometimes less is more. Um, who’s the greatest, uh, soccer player of all time, Messi or Ronaldo
    0:18:34 or Pele or Maradona? I’m going to make, uh, you know, in this question,
    0:18:36 Is this going to be a political answer?
    0:18:44 I will tell the truthful answer because, uh, it is, you know, it’s been interesting because my son
    0:18:51 is a big Cristiano Ronaldo fan. And, uh, so we’ve had to watch El Clasico’s together,
    0:19:00 you know, with that dynamic in there. I so admire CR Simmons. I mean, I’ve never seen an athlete more
    0:19:06 committed to that kind of excellence. And so he’s one of the all time greats, but, you know,
    0:19:08 for me, Messi, is it?
    0:19:15 Yeah. When I see Lionel Messi, you just are in awe that humans are able to achieve that level of
    0:19:20 greatness and genius and artistry. When we talk, we’ll talk about AI, maybe robotics and this kind
    0:19:26 of stuff, that level of genius. I’m not sure you can possibly match by AI in a long time. It’s just
    0:19:31 an example of greatness. And you have that kind of greatness in other disciplines, but in sport,
    0:19:38 you get to visually see it. I don’t like anything else. And just the, the timing, the movement,
    0:19:41 uh, there’s just genius.
    0:19:46 I had the chance to see him a couple of weeks ago. He played in, uh, San Jose. So, um, against the
    0:19:53 quake. So I went to see it, see the game, was a fan on the, had good seats, knew where he would play in
    0:19:58 the second half, hopefully. And, uh, even at his age, just watching him when he gets the ball,
    0:20:04 that movement, uh, you know, you’re right. That special quality stuff to describe, but you feel it
    0:20:10 when you see it. Yeah. He’s still got it. Uh, if we rank all the technological innovations
    0:20:17 throughout human history, let’s go back, uh, maybe the history of human civilizations, 12,000 years ago.
    0:20:23 And you rank them by the, how much of a productivity multiplier they’ve been.
    0:20:30 So, uh, we can go to electricity or the labor mechanization of the industrial revolution,
    0:20:36 or we can go back to the first agricultural revolution 12,000 years ago in that long list
    0:20:42 of inventions. Do you think AI, when history is written a thousand years from now, do you think
    0:20:45 it has a chance to be the number one productivity multiplier?
    0:20:50 That’s a great question. Look, many years ago, I think it might’ve been 2017 or 2018. Um, you know,
    0:20:55 I said at the time, like, you know, AI is the most profound technology humanity will ever work on.
    0:21:01 It’ll be more profound than fire or electricity. So I have to back myself. I, you know, I still think,
    0:21:07 uh, that’s the case. You know, when he asked this question, I’m, I was thinking, well, do we have a
    0:21:12 recency bias, right? You know, like in sports, it’s very tempting to call the current person. You’re
    0:21:22 seeing the greatest player, right? And, and so is there a recency bias? And, you know, I do think, uh,
    0:21:28 from first principles, I would argue AI will be bigger than all of those. I didn’t live through those
    0:21:33 moments. You know, two years ago, I had to go through a surgery and then I processed that there was a point
    0:21:38 in time people didn’t have anesthesia when they went through these procedures. At that moment, I was like,
    0:21:44 that has got to be the greatest invention humanity has ever, ever done. Right. So look, we, we don’t
    0:21:50 know what it is to have, uh, uh, lived through those times, but you know, and many of what you’re
    0:21:56 talking about were kind of this general things, which pretty much affected everything, you know,
    0:22:03 electricity or internet, et cetera. But I don’t think we’ve ever dealt with the technology, both,
    0:22:10 which is progressing so fast, becoming so capable. It’s not clear what the ceiling is.
    0:22:17 And the main unique, it’s recursively self-improving, right? It’s capable of that.
    0:22:24 And so the fact it is going, it’s the first technology will kind of dramatically accelerate
    0:22:31 creation itself, like creating things, building new things, can, can improve and achieve things
    0:22:37 on its own. Right. I think like puts it in a different league, right. And so, uh, different
    0:22:44 league. And so I think the impact it will end up having, uh, will far surpass everything we’ve
    0:22:49 seen before. Uh, obviously with that comes a lot of, uh, important things to think and
    0:22:52 wrestle with, but I definitely think that’ll end up being the case.
    0:22:56 Especially if it gets to the point of where we can achieve superhuman performance on the
    0:23:03 AI research itself. So it’s a technology that may, it’s an open question, but it may be able
    0:23:10 to achieve a level to where the technology itself can create itself better than it could yesterday.
    0:23:15 It’s like the move 37 of alpha research or whatever it is. Right. Like, you know, and when,
    0:23:23 when, yeah, you’re right. When, when it can do novel self-directed research, obviously for a long
    0:23:28 time, we’ll, we’ll have hopefully always humans in the loop and all that stuff. And these are complex
    0:23:34 questions to talk about, but yes, I think the underlying technology, you know, I’ve said this,
    0:23:42 like if you watched seeing alpha go start from scratch, be clueless and like become better
    0:23:48 through the course of a day, you know, like, you know, kind of like, kind of like, you know,
    0:23:54 really it hits you when you see that happen. Even our, like the VO3 models, if you sample the models
    0:23:58 when they were like 30% done and 60% done and looked at what they were generating.
    0:24:06 And you kind of see how it all comes together. It’s kind of like, I would say it’s kind of
    0:24:12 inspiring, a little bit unsettling, right? As a, as a human. So all of that is true, I think.
    0:24:17 Well, the interesting thing of the industrial revolution, electricity, like you mentioned,
    0:24:24 you can go back to the, again, the agriculture, the first agricultural revolution, there’s, um,
    0:24:29 what’s called the Neolithic package of the first agricultural revolution, that it wasn’t just
    0:24:37 that the nomads settled down and started planting food, but all this other kinds of technology
    0:24:42 was born from that. And it’s included in this package. It wasn’t one piece of technology.
    0:24:47 It’s, there’s these ripple effects, second and third order effects that happen. Everything from
    0:24:54 something silly, like silly, profound, like pottery, it can store liquids and food, uh, to
    0:25:00 something we’d kind of take for granted, but social hierarchies, uh, and political hierarchy.
    0:25:07 So like early government was formed because it turns out if humans stopped moving and have some surplus
    0:25:13 food, they start coming up with, uh, they get bored and they start coming up with interesting systems
    0:25:19 and then trade emerges, which turns out to be a really profound thing. And like I said, government,
    0:25:24 I mean, there’s just, uh, second and third order effects from that, including that package is
    0:25:30 incredible and probably extremely difficult. If you’ll ask one of the people in the nomadic tribes
    0:25:36 to predict that it would be impossible. It’s difficult to predict, but all that said, what do you think
    0:25:42 are some of the early things we might see in the quote unquote AI package?
    0:25:48 I mean, most of it probably we don’t know today, but like, you know, the one thing which we can
    0:25:55 tangibly start seeing now is, you know, obviously with the coding progress, you got a sense of it.
    0:26:01 It’s going to be so easy to imagine like thoughts in your head, translating that into things that
    0:26:07 exist. That’ll be part of the package, right? Like it’s going to empower almost all of humanity
    0:26:13 to kind of express themselves. Maybe in the past, you could have expressed with words,
    0:26:20 but like you could kind of build things into existence, right? You know, maybe not fully today.
    0:26:26 We are at the early stages of pipe coding. You know, I’ve been amazed at what people have put out
    0:26:30 online with VO3, but it takes a bit of work, right? You have to stitch together a set of prompts,
    0:26:37 but all this is going to get better. The thing I always think about, this is the worst it’ll ever be,
    0:26:39 right? Like at any given moment in time.
    0:26:44 Yeah. It’s interesting. You went there as kind of a first thought. So the exponential increase
    0:26:55 of access to creativity, software creation, are you creating a program, a piece of content to be
    0:27:02 shared with others, games down the line, all of that, like just becomes infinitely more possible.
    0:27:09 Well, I think the big thing is that it makes it accessible. It unlocks the cognitive capabilities
    0:27:10 of the entire 8 billion.
    0:27:13 No, I agree. Look, think about 40 years ago.
    0:27:20 Maybe in the US, there were five people who could do what you were doing, like go do an interview,
    0:27:26 you know, but today think about with YouTube and other products, et cetera, like how many more
    0:27:32 people are doing it? So I think this is what technology does, right? Like when the internet
    0:27:42 created blogs, you know, you heard from so many more people. So I think, but with AI, I think that number
    0:27:48 won’t be in the few hundreds of thousands, it’ll be tens of millions of people, maybe even a billion people
    0:27:54 like putting out things into the world in a deeper way.
    0:27:59 And I think it’ll change the landscape of creativity. And it makes a lot of people nervous. Like for
    0:28:06 example, uh, whatever Fox, MSNBC, CNN are really nervous about this part. Like you mean, this dude in a
    0:28:12 suit could just do this and you and YouTube and, and, and thousands of others, tens of thousands,
    0:28:18 millions of other creators can do the same kind of thing. That makes them nervous. And now you get a
    0:28:23 podcast from notebook LM that’s about five to 10 times better than any podcast I’ve ever done.
    0:28:28 Um, I’m, I’m, I’m, I’m joking at this time, but maybe not. And that changes. You have to evolve
    0:28:36 because I, on the podcasting front, I’m a fan of podcasts much more than I am a fan of being a host
    0:28:41 or whatever. If there’s great podcasts that are both AIs, I’ll just stop doing this podcast. I’ll
    0:28:45 listen to that podcast, but you have to evolve and you have to change. And that makes people really
    0:28:50 nervous, I think, but it’s also really exciting future. The only thing I may say is I do think
    0:28:59 like in a world in which there are two AI, I think people value and, uh, choose just like in chess.
    0:29:04 You and I would never watch Stockfish 10 or whatever, an alpha go play against each,
    0:29:10 like it would be boring for us to watch, but Magnus Carlsen and Gukesh, that game would be much
    0:29:16 more fascinating to watch. So it’s tough to say, like one way to say is you’ll have a lot
    0:29:21 more content. And so you will be listening to AI generated content because sometimes it’s efficient,
    0:29:28 et cetera. But the premium experiences you value might be a version of like the human essence,
    0:29:33 wherever it comes through. Going back to what we talked earlier about watching Messi dribble the ball.
    0:29:38 I don’t know one day, I’m sure a machine will dribble much better than Messi, but I don’t know
    0:29:42 that it would evoke that same emotion in us. So I think that’ll be fascinating to see.
    0:29:50 I think the element of podcasting or audio books that is about information gathering,
    0:29:57 that part might be removed or that might be more efficiently and in a compelling way done by AI,
    0:30:04 but then it’ll be just nice to hear humans struggle with information, contend with the information,
    0:30:09 try to internalize it, combine it with the complexity of our own emotions and consciousness
    0:30:15 and all that kind of stuff. But if you actually want to find out about a piece of history, you go
    0:30:22 to Gemini. If you want to see Lex struggle with that history, then you look, or other humans,
    0:30:29 you look at that. But the point is, it’s going to change the nature, continue to change the nature of
    0:30:33 how we discover information, how we consume the information, how we create that information.
    0:30:40 The same way that YouTube changed everything completely, changed news. And that’s something our society is struggling with.
    0:30:40 Yeah.
    0:30:46 YouTube, look, YouTube enabled, I mean, you know this better than anyone else. It’s enabled so many creators.
    0:30:55 There is no doubt in me that we will enable more filmmakers than there have ever been, right? You’re going to empower a lot more people.
    0:31:02 So I think there is an expansionary aspect of this, which is underestimated, I think.
    0:31:09 I think it’ll unleash human creativity in a way that hasn’t been seen before. It’s tough to internalize.
    0:31:14 The only way it is, if you brought someone from the 50s or 40s and just put them in front of YouTube,
    0:31:20 you know, I think it would blow their mind away. Similarly, I think we would get blown away by what’s
    0:31:22 possible in a 10 to 20 year time frame.
    0:31:27 Do you think there’s a future, how many years out is it that, let’s say, let’s put a marker on it,
    0:31:36 50% of content, good content, 50% of good content is generated by VO4, 5, 6?
    0:31:43 You know, I think it depends on what it is for. Like, you know, maybe if you look at movies today
    0:31:49 with CGI, there are great filmmakers. Like, you still look at, like, who the directors are and who
    0:31:55 use it. There are filmmakers who don’t use it at all. You value that. There are people who use it
    0:32:00 incredibly. You know, think about somebody like a James Cameron, like, what he would do with these
    0:32:05 tools in his hands. But I think there’ll be a lot more content created. Like, just like writers today
    0:32:11 use Google Docs and not think about the fact that they’re using a tool like that. But people will be
    0:32:16 using the future versions of these things. Like, it won’t be a big deal at all to them.
    0:32:24 I’ve gotten a chance to get to know Darren Aronofsky. Well, he’s been really leaning in and
    0:32:31 trying to figure out. It’s fun to watch a genius who came up before any of this was even remotely
    0:32:36 possible. He created Pi, one of my favorite movies. And from there, just continued to create
    0:32:42 a really interesting variety of movies. And now he’s trying to see how can AI be used to create
    0:32:49 compelling films. You have people like that. You have people, I’ve gotten to just know, edgier
    0:32:56 folks that are AI first, like Door Brothers. Both Aronofsky and Door Brothers create at the edge of
    0:33:04 the Overton window of society. You know, they push whether it’s sexuality or violence. It’s edgy,
    0:33:10 like artists are, but it’s still classy. It doesn’t cross that line. Whatever that line is,
    0:33:18 you know, Hunter S. Thompson has this line that the only way to find out where the edge,
    0:33:23 where the line is, is by crossing it. And I think for artists, that’s true. That’s kind of their purpose.
    0:33:28 Sometimes comedians and artists just cross that line. I wonder if you can comment on the weird
    0:33:35 place that puts Google. Because Google’s line is probably different than some of these artists.
    0:33:44 What’s your, how do you think about specifically VO and Flow about like how to allow artists to do
    0:33:52 crazy shit? But also like the responsibility of like, um, not for it not to be too crazy.
    0:33:57 I mean, it’s a great question. Look, part of, you mentioned Darren, uh, you know, he’s a clear
    0:34:04 visionary, right? Part of the reason we work, started working with them early on VO is he’s one of those
    0:34:11 people who’s able to kind of see that future, get inspired by it, and kind of showing the way for how
    0:34:18 creative people can express themselves with it. Look, I think when it comes to allowing artistic
    0:34:24 free expression, that’s one of the most important values in a society, right? I think, you know,
    0:34:30 artists have always been the ones to push, push boundaries, expand the frontiers of thought.
    0:34:40 And so, look, I think, I think that’s going to be an important value we have. So I think we will provide
    0:34:45 tools and put it in the hands of artists for them to use and put out their work.
    0:34:52 Those APIs, I mean, I almost think of that as infrastructure, just like when you provide
    0:34:56 electricity to people or something, you want them to use it and like, you’re not thinking about the
    0:35:02 use cases on top of it. So it’s a pain brush. Yeah. And, and so I think that’s how obviously
    0:35:07 there have to be some things and, you know, society needs to decide at a fundamental level,
    0:35:14 what’s okay, what’s not, uh, will be responsible with it. Um, but I do think, you know, when it comes
    0:35:20 to artistic free expression, I think that’s one of those values we should work hard to defend.
    0:35:28 Uh, I wonder if you can comment on, um, maybe earlier versions of Gemini. We’re a little bit
    0:35:34 careful on the kind of things you would be willing to answer. I just want to comment on, I was really
    0:35:41 surprised and, uh, pleasantly surprised and enjoy the fact that Gemini two five pro is a lot less
    0:35:46 careful in a good sense. Don’t ask me why, but I’ve been doing a lot of research on Genghis Khan
    0:35:52 and the, uh, the Esteks. Uh, so there’s a lot of violence there in that history. It’s a very
    0:35:56 violent history. I’ve also been doing a lot of research on world war one and world war two and
    0:36:03 earlier versions of Gemini were very, um, basically this kind of sense. Are you sure you want to learn
    0:36:10 about this? And now it’s actually very factual objective, uh, talks about very difficult parts
    0:36:15 of human history and does so with nuance and depth. It’s, it’s been really nice, but there’s a line
    0:36:20 there that I guess Google has to kind of walk. I wonder if it’s, and it’s also an engineering
    0:36:26 challenge, how to, how to do that at scale across all the weird queries that people ask. What, um,
    0:36:33 can you just speak to that challenge? How do you allow Gemini to say again, forgive, pardon my French,
    0:36:39 crazy shit, but not too, not, not too crazy. I think one of the good insights here has been
    0:36:47 as the models are getting more capable, the models are really good at this stuff. Right. And so I think
    0:36:52 in some ways, maybe a year ago, the models weren’t fully there. So they would also do stupid things
    0:37:00 more often. And so, you know, you’re trying to handle those edge cases, but then you make a mistake in
    0:37:05 how you handle those edge cases and it compounds. But I think with 2.5, what we particularly found is
    0:37:12 once the models cross a certain level of intelligence and sophistication, you know, they are, they are
    0:37:16 able to reason through these nuanced issues pretty well. And I think users really want that, right? Like,
    0:37:23 you know, you want as much access to the raw model as possible. Right. But I think it’s a great area
    0:37:30 to think about, like, you know, over time, you know, we should allow more and more closer access to it.
    0:37:36 Maybe obviously let people custom prompts if they wanted to, and like, you know, and, you know,
    0:37:42 experiment with it, et cetera. Uh, I, I think that’s an important direction, but look, the first principles
    0:37:48 we want to think about it is, you know, from a scientific standpoint, like making sure the
    0:37:52 models, and I’m saying scientific in the sense of like how you would approach math or physics or
    0:37:59 something like that, from first principles, having the models reason about the world, be nuanced,
    0:38:05 et cetera, uh, you know, from the ground up is the right way to build these things, right? Not
    0:38:13 like some subset of humans kind of hard coding things on top of it. Uh, so I think it’s the
    0:38:16 direction we’ve been taking. And I think you’ll see us continue to push in that direction.
    0:38:22 Yeah. I actually asked, uh, I gave these notes, I took extensive notes and I gave them to Gemini
    0:38:30 and said, can you ask a novel question that’s not in these notes? And it wrote, Gemini continues to
    0:38:37 really surprise me. Really surprised me. It’s been really beautiful. It’s an incredible model. Uh,
    0:38:44 the, the question it’s, it, it generated was you meaning Sundar told the world Gemini is churning
    0:38:51 out 480 trillion tokens a month. Uh, what’s the most life-changing five word sentence hiding in that
    0:38:55 haystack? That’s a Gemini question, but it made me, it gave me a sense. I don’t think you can answer
    0:39:02 that, but it gave me, it made, it woke me up to like all of these tokens are providing little aha
    0:39:09 moments for people across the globe. So that’s like learning that those tokens are people are curious.
    0:39:14 They ask a question and they find something out and it truly could be life-changing.
    0:39:20 Oh, it is. I look, you know, I had the same feeling about search many, many years ago. You, you, you know,
    0:39:26 you, you definitely, you know, this tokens per month is like grown 50 times in the last 12 months.
    0:39:27 Is that accurate by the way?
    0:39:33 Yeah, it is. It is, it is accurate. I’m glad it got it right. Um, but you know, that number was
    0:39:40 9.7 trillion tokens per month, 12 months ago, right? It’s gone, gone up to 480, you know,
    0:39:47 it’s a 50 X increase. So there’s no limit to human curiosity. Uh, and I think it’s, it’s one of those
    0:39:55 moments. Uh, maybe I don’t think it is there today, but maybe one day there’s a five word phrase which
    0:40:00 says what the actual universe is or something like that and something very meaningful, but I don’t think
    0:40:07 we’re quite there yet. Do you think the scaling laws are holding strong on, um, there’s a lot of
    0:40:12 ways to describe the scaling laws for AI, but on the pre-training, on the post-training fronts.
    0:40:18 So the flip side of that, do you anticipate AI progress will hit a wall? Is there a wall?
    0:40:24 You know, it’s a cherished micro kitchen conversation. Once in a while I have it, uh, you know,
    0:40:31 like when Demis is visiting or, you know, if Demis, Cori, Jeff, Noam, Sergei, a bunch of our people,
    0:40:37 like, you know, we sit and, uh, you know, you know, talk about this, right. And, um, look, I,
    0:40:44 we see a lot of headroom ahead, right. I think, uh, we’ve been able to optimize and improve on all
    0:40:53 fronts, right. Uh, pre-training, post-training, test time, compute, tool use, right. Over time,
    0:41:00 making these more agentic. So getting these models to be more general world models in that direction,
    0:41:06 like VO3, uh, you know, the physics understanding is dramatically better than what the VO1 or something
    0:41:13 like that was. So you kind of see on all those dimensions, I, I feel, you know, progress is very
    0:41:22 obvious to see. And I feel like there is significant headroom. More importantly, you know, I’m fortunate
    0:41:28 to work with some of the best researchers on the planet, right. They think, uh, there is more
    0:41:35 headroom to be had here. Uh, and so I think we have an exciting trajectory ahead. It’s tougher to say,
    0:41:40 you know, each year I sit and say, okay, we are going to throw 10 X more compute over the course of
    0:41:47 next year at it. And like, will we see progress? Sitting here today, I feel like the year ahead will
    0:41:53 have a lot of progress. And do you feel any limitations like, uh, that are the bottlenecks
    0:41:59 compute limited, uh, data limited, idea limited. Do you feel any of those limitations or is it full
    0:42:03 steam ahead on all fronts? I think it’s compute limited in this sense, right? Like, you know,
    0:42:09 we can all, part of the reason you’ve seen us do flash, nano flash and pro models,
    0:42:15 but not an ultra model. It’s like for each generation, we feel like we’ve been able to get
    0:42:23 the pro model at like, I don’t know, 80, 90% of ultra capability, but ultra would be a, a lot more,
    0:42:33 uh, like slow and a lot more expensive to serve. But what we’ve been able to do is to go to the next
    0:42:37 generation and make the next generation’s pro as good as the previous generation’s ultra,
    0:42:43 be able to serve it in a way that it’s fast and you can use it and so on. So I do think scaling laws
    0:42:51 are working, but it’s tough to get at any given time. The models we all use the most
    0:43:00 is maybe like a few months behind the maximum capability we can deliver, right? Because that
    0:43:06 won’t be the fastest, easiest to use, et cetera. Also that’s in terms of intelligence, it becomes
    0:43:12 harder and harder to measure, uh, performance in quotes, because, you know, you could argue Gemini
    0:43:20 flash is much more impactful than pro just because of the latency is super intelligent already.
    0:43:25 I mean, sometimes like latency is, uh, maybe more important than intelligence,
    0:43:31 especially when the intelligence is just a little bit less and flash not, it’s still incredibly smart
    0:43:39 model. And so you, you have to not start measuring impact and then it feels like benchmarks are less
    0:43:43 and less capable of capturing the intelligence of models, the effectiveness of models, the usefulness,
    0:43:48 the real world usefulness of models. Uh, another kitchen question. So lots of folks are talking
    0:43:56 about timelines for AGI or ASI artificial super intelligence. So AGI loosely defined is basically
    0:44:06 human expert level at a lot of the main fields of pursuit for humans. And ASI is what AGI becomes
    0:44:12 presumably quickly by being able to self-improve. So becoming far superior in intelligence across all
    0:44:17 these disciplines in humans. When do you think we’ll have AGI? Is 2030 a possibility?
    0:44:22 Uh, there’s one other term we should throw in there. I don’t know who, who used it first. Maybe
    0:44:29 Karpathy did AGI. Have you, have you heard AGI? The artificial jagged intelligence sometimes feels
    0:44:34 that way, right? Both there are progress and you see what they can do. And then like, you can trivially
    0:44:40 find they make numeric letters or like, you know, counting hours and strawberry or something,
    0:44:46 which seems to trip up most models or whatever it is, right? So, uh, so maybe we should throw that
    0:44:53 term in there. I feel like we are in the AGI phase where like dramatic progress, some things don’t work
    0:44:58 well, but overall, you know, you’re seeing, uh, lots of progress. But if your question is, will,
    0:45:07 will it happen by 2030? Look, we constantly move the line of what it means to be AGI. There are moments
    0:45:11 today, you know, like sitting in a Waymo in a San Francisco street with all the crowds and the
    0:45:18 people and kind of work its way through. I see glimpses of it there. The car is sometimes kind of
    0:45:25 impatient, trying to work its way, uh, using Astra, like in Gemini Live or seeing, uh, you know, asking
    0:45:30 questions about the world. What’s this skinny building doing in my neighborhood? It’s a streetlight,
    0:45:37 not a building. You, you see glimpses. That’s why I use the word AGI because then you see stuff,
    0:45:43 which obviously, you know, we are far from AGI too. So you have both experiences simultaneously
    0:45:48 happening to you. I’ll answer your question, but I’ll also throw out this. I almost feel the term
    0:45:52 doesn’t matter. What I know is by 2030, there’ll be such dramatic progress.
    0:46:01 we’ll be dealing with the consequences of that progress, both the positives, uh, both the positive
    0:46:07 externalities and the negative externalities that come with it in a big way by 2030. So that I strongly
    0:46:13 feel right. Whatever we may be arguing about the term, or maybe Gemini can answer what that moment is in
    0:46:20 time in 2030, but I think the progress will be dramatic, right? So that I believe in. Will the AI
    0:46:27 think it has reached AGI by 2030? I would say we will just fall short of that timeline, right? So I think it’ll
    0:46:32 take a bit longer. It’s amazing in the early days of Google DeepMind in 2010, they talked about a 20 year
    0:46:42 timeframe to achieve, uh, AGI. So which is, which is kind of fascinating to see, but you know, I, for me, the whole
    0:46:50 thing, seeing what Google brain did in 2012. And when we acquired DeepMind in 2014, uh, right close to
    0:46:56 where we are sitting in 2012, you know, Jeff Dean showed the image of when the neural networks could
    0:47:01 recognize a picture of a cat, right. And identify it, you know, this is the early versions of brain,
    0:47:08 right. And so, you know, we all talked about couple of decades. I don’t think we’ll quite get there by 2030.
    0:47:15 So my sense is it’s slightly after that, but I, I would stress, it doesn’t matter like what that
    0:47:23 definition is, because you will have mind blowing progress on many dimensions. Maybe AI can create
    0:47:29 videos. We have to figure out as a society, how do we, we need some system by which we all agree that
    0:47:34 this is AI generated and we have to disclose it in a certain way, because how do you distinguish reality
    0:47:38 otherwise? Yeah. There’s so many interesting things you said. So first of all, just looking back at this
    0:47:44 recent, now it feels like distant history, uh, with Google brain. I mean, that was before TensorFlow,
    0:47:49 before TensorFlow was made public and open sourced. So the tooling matters too, combined with GitHub
    0:47:56 ability to share code. Then you have the ideas of attention transformers and the diffusion now,
    0:48:02 and then there might be a new idea that seems simple in retrospect, but it will change everything.
    0:48:08 And that could be the post-training, the inference time innovations. And I think Shad Sien tweeted that
    0:48:17 Google is just one great UI from completely winning the AI race, meaning like UI is a huge part of it.
    0:48:23 like how that intelligence, uh, uh, uh, I think Logan Kerr project likes to talk about this right now.
    0:48:29 It’s an LLM, but it become like, when is it going to become a system where you’re talking about shipping
    0:48:34 systems versus shipping a particular model? Yeah. That matters too. How the system is, um,
    0:48:39 manifests itself and how it presents itself to the world. That really, really matters.
    0:48:46 Oh, hugely. So there are simple UI innovations, which have changed the world. Right. And, uh,
    0:48:52 I absolutely think so. Um, we will see a lot more progress in the next couple of years. I think
    0:49:02 AI itself, uh, on a self-improving track for UI itself, like, you know, today we are like constraining
    0:49:09 the models. The models can’t quite express themselves in terms of the UI to, to people. Um,
    0:49:14 but that is, uh, like, you know, if you think about it, we’ve kind of boxed them in that way,
    0:49:21 but given these models can code, uh, you know, they should be able to write the best interfaces to
    0:49:28 express their ideas over time. Right. That is incredible idea. So their API is already open.
    0:49:35 So you can, you create a really nice agentic system that continuously improves the way you can be talking
    0:49:42 to an AI. Yeah. But it, a lot of that is the interface. And then of course, uh, incredible
    0:49:45 multimodal aspect of the interface that Google has been pushing.
    0:49:47 These models are natively multimodal.
    0:49:51 They can easily take content from any format, put it in any format.
    0:49:57 They can write a good user interface. They probably understand your preferences better than over time.
    0:50:06 Like, you know, and so, so all of this is like the evolution ahead. Right. And so, um, that goes back
    0:50:10 to where we started the conversation. I, like, I think there’ll be dramatic evolutions in the years ahead.
    0:50:19 Maybe one more kitchen question. Uh, this even, even further ridiculous concept of P doom. So the
    0:50:26 philosophically minded folks in the AI community, you think about the probability that AGI and then ASI
    0:50:34 might destroy all of human civilization. I would say my P doom is about 10%. Do you ever think about
    0:50:40 this kind of long-term threat of ASI and what would your P doom be?
    0:50:47 Look, I mean, for sure. Look, I’ve, uh, both been, uh, very excited about AI, uh, but I’ve always felt,
    0:50:55 uh, this is a technology, you know, you have to actively think about the risks and work very,
    0:51:02 very hard to harness it in a way that it, it all works out well. Um, on the P doom question, look,
    0:51:05 it’s, uh, you know, wouldn’t surprise you to say that’s probably another micro kitchen conversation
    0:51:11 that pops up once in a while. Right. And given how powerful the technology is, maybe stepping back,
    0:51:16 you know, when you’re running a large organization, if you can kind of align the incentives of the
    0:51:20 organization, you can achieve pretty much anything, right? Like, you know, if you can get kind of people
    0:51:26 all marching in towards like a goal, uh, in a very focused way, in a mission driven way, you can
    0:51:32 pretty much achieve anything, but it’s very tough to organize all of humanity that way. But
    0:51:39 I think if P dome is actually high at some point, all of humanity is like aligned in making sure
    0:51:44 that’s not the case. Right. And so we’ll actually make more progress against it, I think. So the
    0:51:52 irony is, so there is a self-modulating aspect there. Like, I think if humanity collectively puts
    0:51:58 their mind to solving a problem, whatever it is, I think we can get there. So because of that,
    0:52:06 you know, I, I, I, I think I’m optimistic on the P doom scenarios, but that doesn’t mean,
    0:52:13 I think the underlying risk is actually pretty high, but I’m, uh, you know, I have a lot of faith in
    0:52:16 humanity kind of rising up to the, to meet that moment.
    0:52:21 That’s really, that’s really, really well put. I mean, as the threat becomes more concrete and real,
    0:52:26 humans do really come together and get their shit together. Well, the other thing I think people don’t
    0:52:33 often talk about is probability of doom without AI. So there’s all these other ways that humans can
    0:52:40 destroy themselves. And it’s very possible, at least I believe so, that AI will help us become smarter,
    0:52:48 kinder to each other, uh, more efficient, uh, it’ll help more parts of the world flourish where
    0:52:54 it would be less resource constrained, which is often the source of military conflict and tensions
    0:53:02 and so on. So we also have to load into that. What’s the P doom without AI? With AI, P doom with AI,
    0:53:07 P doom without AI, because it’s very possible that AI will be the thing that saves us,
    0:53:09 saves human civilizations from all the other threats.
    0:53:13 I agree with you. I think, I think it’s insightful. Uh, look, I felt
    0:53:19 like to make progress on some of the toughest problems would be good to have AI, like pair
    0:53:25 helping you. Right. And, and like, you know, so that resonates with me for sure. Yeah.
    0:53:26 Quick pause, bath and break.
    0:53:36 If notebook LM was the same, like what I saw today with beam, if it was compelling in the same kind of way,
    0:53:41 blew my mind. It was incredible. I didn’t think it’s possible.
    0:53:43 I didn’t think it’s possible.
    0:53:48 My hope was like, can you imagine like the U S president, the Chinese president being able to do
    0:53:56 something like beam with the live meat translation working well. So they both sitting and talking, make progress a bit more.
    0:54:02 Yeah. Yeah. Just, uh, for people listening, we took a quick bathroom break and now we’re talking about the demo I did.
    0:54:08 And we’ll probably post it somewhere, somehow, maybe here the, I got a chance to experience beam.
    0:54:17 And it was, it’s hard to, it’s hard to describe it in words, how real it felt with just, what is it?
    0:54:20 Six cameras. It’s incredible. It’s incredible.
    0:54:27 It’s, it’s one of the toughest products of, you can’t quite describe it to people, even when we show it in slides, etc.
    0:54:34 Like you don’t know what it is. You have to kind of experience it on the world leaders front on politics, geopolitics.
    0:54:44 That there’s something really special. Again, we’re studying world war two and, uh, how much could have been saved if Chamberlain met Stalin in person.
    0:54:52 And I sometimes also struggle explaining to people, articulating why I believe meeting in person for world leaders is powerful.
    0:54:56 It just seems naive to say that, but there is something there in person.
    0:55:20 And with beam, I felt that same thing. And then I’m unable to explain. All I kept doing is what like a child does. You look real, you know, and I mean, I don’t know if that makes meetings more productive or so on, but it certainly makes them more, uh, the same reason you want to show up to work versus remote.
    0:55:40 Sometimes that human connection. I don’t know what that is. It’s hard to, it’s hard to put into words. Um, there’s some, there’s something beautiful about great teams collaborating on a thing that’s, that’s not captured by the productivity of that team or by whatever on paper.
    0:55:50 Some of the most beautiful moments you experience in life is at work, pursuing a difficult thing together for many months. There’s nothing like it.
    0:55:54 You’re in the trenches and yeah, you do form bonds that way for sure.
    0:56:09 And to be able to do that, like somewhat remotely in that same personal touch. I don’t know. That’s a deeply fulfilling thing. I know a lot of people, I personally hate meetings because a significant percent of meetings when done poorly are, don’t, don’t serve a clear purpose.
    0:56:19 So, but that’s a meeting problem. That’s not a communication problem. If you can improve the communication for the meetings that are useful, it’s just incredible.
    0:56:28 So yeah, I was blown away by the great engineering behind it. And then we get to see what impact that has. That’s really interesting, but just incredible engineering. Really impressive.
    0:56:45 It is. And obviously we’ll work hard over the years to make it more and more accessible, but yeah, even on a personal front, outside of work meetings, you know, a grandmother who’s far away from our grandchild and being able to, you know, have that kind of an interaction, right.
    0:57:01 And all of that, I think we’ll end up being very mean, nothing substitutes being in person, you know, it’s not always possible. You know, you could be a soldier deployed, try trying to talk to your loved ones. So I think, uh, you know, so that’s what inspires us.
    0:57:27 When you and I hung out last year and took a walk, I remember, I don’t think we talked about this, but, but I remember, uh, you know, outside of that, seeing dozens of articles written by analysts and experts and so on that, um, Sundar Pichai should step down because the perception was that Google was definitively losing the AI race has lost this magic touch.
    0:57:58 And the, uh, and the, uh, rapidly evolving, uh, technological, uh, landscape. And now a year later, it’s crazy. You showed this plot of all the things that were shipped over the past year. It’s incredible. And Gemini Pro is winning across many benchmarks and products, uh, as we sit here today. So take me through that experience when there’s all these articles saying you’re the wrong guy to lead Google through this. Google is lost, is done. It’s over.
    0:58:03 To today where Google is winning again. What were some low points during that time?
    0:58:28 Look, I, um, I mean, lots to unpack, um, you know, obviously like, I mean, the main bet I made as a CEO was to really, uh, you know, make sure the company was approaching everything in a AI first way, really, you know, setting ourselves up to develop AGI responsibly. Right.
    0:58:48 And, and, and, and, and make sure we’re putting out products, uh, which, which embodies that things that are very, very useful for people. So look, I, I knew even through moments like that last year, uh, you know, I had a good sense of what we were building internally. Right.
    0:59:00 Right. So I had already made, you know, many important decisions, you know, bringing together teams of the caliber of brain and deep mind and setting up Google deep mind.
    0:59:20 There were things like we made the decision to invest in TPUs 10 years ago. So we knew we were scaling up and building big models. Anytime you’re in a situation like that, a few aspects, uh, I’m good at tuning out noise, right. Separating signal from noise.
    0:59:39 Do you scuba dive? Like, have you, no. You know, it’s amazing. Like I’m not good at it, but I’ve done it a few times, but, but sometimes you jump in the ocean. It’s so choppy, but you go down one feet under, it’s the calmest thing in the entire, uh, universe. Right.
    1:00:02 So there’s a version of that, right. Like, you know, uh, running Google, you know, you may as well be coaching Barcelona or Real Madrid, right? Like, you know, you have a bad season. So there are aspects to that, but you know, like, look, I, I’m good at tuning out the noise. I do watch out for signals. You know, it’s important to separate the signal from the noise.
    1:00:30 So there are good people sometimes making good points outside. So you want to listen to it. You want to take that feedback in, but, you know, internally, like, you know, you’re making a set of consequential decisions, right. As leaders, you’re making a lot of decisions. Many of them are like inconsequential. Like it feels like, but over time you learn that most of the decisions you’re making on a day-to-day basis doesn’t matter.
    1:01:01 Like you have to make them and you’re making them just to keep things moving, but you have to make a few consequential decisions. Right. And, and, uh, we had set up the right teams, right leaders. We had world-class researchers. We were training Gemini. Internally, there are factors which were, for example, outside people may not have appreciated. I mean, TPUs are amazing, but we had to ramp up TPUs too.
    1:01:13 That took time, right. And, and, and, uh, to scale actually having enough TPUs to get the compute needed. But I could see internally the trajectory we were on.
    1:01:25 And, and, and B, you know, I was so excited internally about the possibility. To me, this moment felt like one of the biggest opportunities ahead for us as a company.
    1:01:41 That the opportunity space ahead or the next decade, next 20 years is bigger than what has happened in the past. Um, and I thought we were set up like better than most companies in the world to go, uh, realize that vision.
    1:01:57 I mean, you had to make some consequential, bold decisions. Like you mentioned the merger of deep mind and brain. Uh, maybe it’s my perspective, just knowing humans. I’m sure there’s a lot of egos involved.
    1:02:13 It’s very difficult to merge teams. And I’m sure there were some hard decisions to be made. Can you take me through your process of how you think through that? Do you go to pull the trigger and make that decision? Maybe what were some painful points? How do you navigate those turbulent waters?
    1:02:41 Look, we were fortunate to have two world-class teams, uh, but you’re right. Like, it’s like somebody coming and telling to you, take Stanford and MIT. Right. And then put them together and create a great department. Right. And, and easier said than done. Uh, but we are fortunate, you know, phenomenal teams, both had their strengths, you know, but they were run very differently. Right. Like, uh, brain was kind of a lot of diverse projects, bottoms up.
    1:02:52 And out of it came a lot of important research breakthroughs. Deep mind at the time had a strong vision of how you want to build AGI. And so they were pursuing their direction.
    1:03:09 But I think through those moments, luckily tapping into, um, you know, Jeff had expressed a desire to be more, to go back to more of a scientific individual contributor roots. You know, he felt like management was taking up too much of his time.
    1:03:22 Uh, and, and, and, and Demis naturally, I think, uh, you know, uh, was running deep mind and was a natural choice there, but I think it was, you’re right. You know, it took us a while to bring the teams together.
    1:03:43 A few sleepless nights here and there, as we put that thing together, uh, we were patient in how we did it so that it works well for the long term.
    1:03:55 Right. And, and, and some of that in that moment, I think, yes, with things moving fast, uh, I think you definitely, uh, felt the pressure, but I think we pulled off that, uh, transition well.
    1:04:03 And, you know, I think, I think, uh, you know, they’ve obviously, uh, doing incredible work and there’s a lot more incredible things I had coming from them.
    1:04:18 Like we talked about, you have a very calm, even tempered, respectful demeanor during that time, whether it’s the merger or just dealing with the noise, uh, did, were there times where frustration boiled over?
    1:04:25 Like, did you, uh, have to go a bit more intense on everybody than you usually would?
    1:04:27 Probably, you know, probably, you’re right.
    1:04:38 I think, I think in the sense that, you know, there was a moment where we were all driving hard, but when you’re in the trenches working with passion, you’re going to have days, right.
    1:04:46 You disagree, you argue, but like all that, I mean, just part of the course of working intensely.
    1:04:47 Right.
    1:04:56 And, uh, you know, at the end of the day, all of us are doing what we are doing because, uh, the impact it can have, we are motivated by it.
    1:05:02 It’s like, uh, you know, for many of us, this has been a long-term, uh, journey.
    1:05:04 And so it’s been super exciting.
    1:05:08 The positive moments far outweigh the kind of stressful moments.
    1:05:14 Just early this year, I had a chance to celebrate back-to-back over two days.
    1:05:21 Like, uh, you know, Nobel prize for Jeff Finton and the next day, a Nobel prize for, uh, Demis and John jumper.
    1:05:24 You know, you worked with people like that.
    1:05:25 All that is super inspiring.
    1:05:38 Is there something like with you where you had to like put your foot down maybe with less, uh, versus more where like I’m the CEO and we’re doing this.
    1:05:45 To my earlier point about consequential decisions you make, there are decisions you make people can disagree pretty vehemently.
    1:05:54 And, but at some point, like, you know, you make a clear decision and you, you just ask people to commit, right?
    1:06:00 Like, you know, you can disagree, but it’s time to disagree and commit so that we can get moving.
    1:06:07 And whether it’s put, putting the foot down or, you know, like, you know, it’s, it’s a natural part of what all of us have to do.
    1:06:13 And, you know, I think you can do that calmly and be very firm in the direction you’re making the decision.
    1:06:18 And I think if you’re clear, actually people over time respect that, right?
    1:06:27 Like, you know, if you can make decisions with clarity, I find it very effective in meetings where you’re making such decisions to hear everyone out.
    1:06:32 I think it’s important when you can to hear everyone out.
    1:06:37 Sometimes what you’re hearing actually influences how you think about and you’re wrestling with it and making a decision.
    1:06:45 Sometimes you have a clear conviction and you state, so look, I, uh, I, you know, this is how I feel.
    1:06:50 And, you know, this is my conviction and you kind of placed a bet and you move on.
    1:06:52 Are there big decisions like that?
    1:06:56 I’m kind of intuitively assume the merger was the big one.
    1:07:02 I think that was a very important decision, uh, you know, for, for the company to, to meet the moment.
    1:07:06 I think we had to make sure we were, uh, we were doing that and doing that well.
    1:07:08 I think that was a consequential decision.
    1:07:10 There were many other things.
    1:07:23 We set up a AI infrastructure team, like to really go meet the moment to scale up the compute we needed to, and really brought teams from disparate parts of the company, kind of created it to, to move forward.
    1:07:40 Um, you know, bringing people like getting people to kind of work together physically, both in London, the deep mind and what we call gradient canopy, which is where the mountain view Google deep mind teams are.
    1:07:51 But one of my favorite moments is I routinely walk, uh, multiple times per week to the gradient canopy building where our top researchers are working on the models.
    1:07:54 Sergey is often there amongst them, right?
    1:08:01 Like, you know, just, you know, looking at, uh, you know, getting an update on the model, seeing the loss curve.
    1:08:09 So all that, I think that cultural part of getting the teams together back with that energy, I think ended up playing a big role too.
    1:08:13 What about the decision to recently add AI mode?
    1:08:25 So Google search is the, uh, as they say, the front page of the internet, it’s like a legendary minimalist thing with 10 blue links.
    1:08:31 Like that’s when people think internet, they think that page, and now you’re starting to mess with that.
    1:08:35 So the AI mode, which is a separate tab and then integrating AI and the results.
    1:08:39 I’m sure there were some battles in meetings on that one.
    1:08:47 Look, uh, you know, in some ways when mobile came, you know, people wanted answers to more questions.
    1:08:56 So we’ve kind of constantly evolving it, but you’re right this moment, you know, that evolution, uh, because the underlying technology is becoming much more capable.
    1:09:04 You know, you can have AI give a lot of context, you know, but one of our important design goals, though, is when you come to Google search,
    1:09:10 you’re going to get a lot of context, but you’re going to go and find a lot of things out on the web.
    1:09:15 So that will be true in AI mode, in AI overviews and so on.
    1:09:33 But I think to our earlier conversation, we are still giving you access to links, but think of the AI as a layer, which is giving you context, summary, maybe in AI mode, you can have a dialogue with it back and forth on your journey, right?
    1:09:37 And, but through it all, you’re kind of learning what’s out there in the world.
    1:09:39 So those core principles don’t change.
    1:09:45 But I think AI mode allows us to push the, we have our best models there, right?
    1:09:48 Models which are using search as a deep tool.
    1:10:00 Really for every query you’re asking, kind of fanning out, doing multiple searches, like kind of assembling that knowledge in a way so you can go and consume what you want to, right?
    1:10:02 And that’s how we think about it.
    1:10:07 I got to just listen to a bunch of Elizabeth, Liz, read, describe this.
    1:10:09 Two things stood out to me that she mentioned.
    1:10:22 One thing is what you were talking about is the query fanout, which I didn’t even think about before, is the powerful aspect of integrating a bunch of stuff on the web for you in one place.
    1:10:29 So yes, it provides that context so that you can decide which page to then go on to.
    1:10:38 The other really, really big thing speaks to the earlier, in terms of productivity multiply that we’re talking about, that she mentioned was language.
    1:10:57 So one of the things you don’t quite understand is through AI mode, you make, for non-English speakers, you make sort of, let’s say, English language websites accessible by, in the reasoning process, as you try to figure out what you’re looking for.
    1:11:00 Of course, once you show up to a page, you can use a basic translate.
    1:11:14 But that process of figuring it out, if you empathize with a large part of the world that doesn’t speak English, their web is much smaller in that original language.
    1:11:18 And so it unlocks, again, unlocks that huge cognitive capacity there.
    1:11:24 We don’t, you know, you take for granted here with all the bloggers and the journalists writing about AI mode.
    1:11:30 You forget that this now unlocks, because Gemini is really good at translation.
    1:11:31 No, it is.
    1:11:39 I mean, the multimodality, the translation, its ability to reason, we are dramatically improving tool use.
    1:11:47 Like, as of putting that power in the flow of search, I think, look, I’m super excited.
    1:11:53 With the AI overviews, we’ve seen the product has gotten much better.
    1:11:55 You know, we measured using all kinds of user metrics.
    1:11:59 It’s obviously driven strong growth of the product.
    1:12:07 And, you know, we’ve been testing AI mode, you know, it’s now in the hands of millions of people.
    1:12:10 And the early metrics are very encouraging.
    1:12:13 So, look, I’m excited about this next chapter of search.
    1:12:16 For people who are not thinking through or are aware of this.
    1:12:21 So there’s the 10 blue links with the AI overview on top that provides a nice summarization.
    1:12:22 You can expand it.
    1:12:26 And you have sources and links now embedded.
    1:12:33 I believe, at least Liz said so, I actually didn’t notice it, but there’s ads in the AI overview also.
    1:12:36 I don’t think there’s ads in AI mode.
    1:12:40 When ads in AI mode?
    1:12:42 So now, when do you think, I mean, it’s, okay.
    1:12:53 We should say that in the 90s, I remember the animated GIFs, banner GIFs that take you to some shady websites that have nothing to do with anything.
    1:12:55 AdSense revolutionized the advertisement.
    1:13:05 It’s one of the greatest inventions in recent history because it allows us for free to have access to all these kinds of services.
    1:13:08 So ads fuel a lot of really powerful services.
    1:13:17 And at its best, it’s showing you relevant ads, but also very importantly, in a way that’s not super annoying, right?
    1:13:24 So when do you think it’s possible to add ads into AI mode?
    1:13:29 And what does that look like from a classy, not annoying perspective?
    1:13:30 Two things.
    1:13:36 Early part of AI mode will obviously focus more on the organic experience to make sure we are getting it right.
    1:13:44 I think the fundamental value of ads are, it enables access to deploy the services to billions of people.
    1:13:53 Second is ads are, the reason we’ve always taken ads seriously is we view ads as commercial information, but it’s still information.
    1:13:56 And so we bring the same quality metrics to it.
    1:14:06 I think with AI mode to our earlier conversation about, I think AI itself will help us over time figure out, you know, the best way to do it.
    1:14:16 I think given we are giving context around everything, I think it’ll give us more opportunities to also explain, okay, here’s some commercial information.
    1:14:22 Like today as a podcaster, you do it at certain spots and you probably figure out what’s best in your podcast.
    1:14:35 I think so there are aspects of that, but I think, you know, I think the underlying need of people value commercial information, businesses are trying to connect to users.
    1:14:41 All that doesn’t change in an AI moment, but look, we will rethink it.
    1:14:46 You’ve seen us in YouTube now do a mixture of subscription and ads.
    1:14:53 Like obviously, you know, we are now introducing subscription offerings across everything.
    1:15:00 And so as part of that, we can optimize, the optimization point will end up being a different place as well.
    1:15:09 Do you see a trajectory in the possible future where AI mode completely replaces the 10 blue links plus AI overview?
    1:15:15 Our current plan is AI mode is going to be there as a separate tab for people who really want to experience that.
    1:15:25 But it’s not yet at the level where our main search pages, but as features work, we’ll keep migrating it to the main page.
    1:15:28 And so you can view it as a continuum.
    1:15:31 AI mode will offer you the bleeding edge experience.
    1:15:39 But it’ll, things that work will keep overflowing to AI overviews in the main experience.
    1:15:43 And the idea that AI mode will still take you to the web, to the human created web.
    1:15:43 Yes.
    1:15:46 That’s going to be a core design principle for us.
    1:15:49 So really, if users decide, right, they drive this.
    1:15:49 Yeah.
    1:15:54 It’s just exciting, a little bit scary that it might change the internet.
    1:16:03 Because you, Google has been dominating with a very specific look and idea of what it means to have the internet.
    1:16:10 And to, as you move to AI mode, I mean, it’s just a different experience.
    1:16:18 I think Liz was talking about, I think you’ve mentioned that you ask more questions, you ask longer questions.
    1:16:20 Dramatically different types of questions.
    1:16:21 Yeah.
    1:16:23 Like it actually fuels curiosity.
    1:16:32 Like I think it’s, for me, I’ve been asking just a much larger number of questions of this black box machine, let’s say, whatever it is.
    1:16:43 And with the AI overview, it’s interesting because I still value the human, I still ultimately want to end up on the human created web.
    1:16:46 But I, like you said, the context really helps.
    1:16:50 It helps us deliver higher quality referrals, right?
    1:16:55 You know, where people are like, they have much higher likelihood of finding what they’re looking for.
    1:17:00 They’re exploring, they’re curious, their intent is getting satisfied more.
    1:17:02 So that’s what all our metrics show.
    1:17:04 It makes the humans that create the web nervous.
    1:17:06 The journalists are getting nervous.
    1:17:07 They’ve already been nervous.
    1:17:11 Like I mentioned, CNN is nervous because of podcasts.
    1:17:13 It makes people nervous.
    1:17:21 Look, I think news and journalism will play an important role, you know, in the future.
    1:17:24 We’re pretty committed to it, right?
    1:17:34 And so I think making sure that ecosystem, in fact, I think we’ll be able to differentiate ourselves as a company over time because of our commitment there.
    1:17:41 So it’s something I think, you know, I definitely value a lot and as we are designing, we’ll continue prioritizing approaches.
    1:17:50 I’m sure for the people who want, they can have a fine-tuned AI model that’s clickbait hit pieces that will replace current journalism.
    1:17:52 That’s a shot at journalism.
    1:17:53 Forgive me.
    1:18:00 But I find that if you’re looking for really strong criticism of things, that Gemini is very good at providing that.
    1:18:01 Oh, absolutely.
    1:18:03 It’s better than anything for now.
    1:18:18 I mean, people are concerned that there will be bias that’s introduced that as the AI systems become more and more powerful, there’s incentive from sponsors to roll in and try to control the output of the AI models.
    1:18:22 But for now, the objective criticism that’s provided is way better than journalism.
    1:18:25 Of course, the argument is the journalists are still valuable.
    1:18:32 But then, I don’t know, the crowdsourced journalism that we get on the open internet is also very, very powerful.
    1:18:36 I feel like they’re all super important things.
    1:18:40 I think it’s good that you get a lot of crowdsourced information coming in.
    1:18:47 But I feel like there is real value for high-quality journalism, right?
    1:19:00 And I think these are all complementary, I think, like I view it as I find myself constantly seeking out also, like, try to find objective reporting on things, too.
    1:19:06 And sometimes you get more context from the crowdfunded sources you read online.
    1:19:08 But I think both end up playing a super important role.
    1:19:20 So there’s, you’ve spoken a little bit about this, Demis talked about this, it’s sort of the slice of the web that will increasingly become about providing information for agents.
    1:19:24 So we can think about it as, like, two layers of the web.
    1:19:26 One is for humans, one is for agents.
    1:19:29 Do you see the AI agents?
    1:19:33 Do you see the one that’s for AI agents growing over time?
    1:19:43 Do you see there still being long-term, five, ten years value for the human-created, human-created for the purpose of human consumption, web?
    1:19:45 Or will it all be agents in the end?
    1:19:59 Today, like, not everyone does, but, you know, you go to a big retail store, you love walking the aisle, you love shopping, or grocery store, picking out food, etc.
    1:20:02 But you’re also online shopping and they’re delivering, right?
    1:20:07 So both are complementary, and, like, that’s true for restaurants, etc.
    1:20:13 So I do feel like, over time, websites will also get better for humans.
    1:20:14 They will be better designed.
    1:20:18 AI might actually design them better for humans.
    1:20:25 So I expect the web to get a lot richer and more interesting and better to use.
    1:20:33 At the same time, I think there’ll be an agentic web, which is also making a lot of progress.
    1:20:40 And you have to solve the business value and the incentives to make that work well, right?
    1:20:41 Like, for people to participate in it.
    1:20:44 But I think both will coexist.
    1:20:49 And obviously, the agents may not need the same…
    1:20:50 I mean, not may not.
    1:20:56 They won’t need the same design and UI paradigms which humans need to interact with.
    1:20:59 But I think both will be there.
    1:21:02 I have to ask you about Chrome.
    1:21:06 I have to say, for me personally, Google Chrome was probably…
    1:21:08 I don’t know.
    1:21:10 I’d like to see where I would rank it.
    1:21:13 But in this temptation…
    1:21:16 And this is not a recency bias, although it might be a little bit.
    1:21:21 But I think it’s up there, top three, maybe the number one piece of software for me of all time.
    1:21:22 So it’s incredible.
    1:21:23 It’s really incredible.
    1:21:26 The browsers are a window to the web.
    1:21:34 And Chrome really continued for many years, but even initially, to push the innovation on that front when it was stale.
    1:21:36 And it continues to challenge.
    1:21:39 It continues to make it more performant, so efficient.
    1:21:41 You just innovate constantly.
    1:21:44 And the Chromium aspect of it.
    1:21:51 Anyway, you were one of the pioneers of Chrome, pushing for it when it was an insane idea.
    1:21:57 Probably one of the ideas that was criticized and doubted and so on.
    1:22:03 So can you tell me the story of what it took to push for Chrome?
    1:22:04 What was your vision?
    1:22:17 Look, it was such a dynamic time, you know, around 2004, 2005, with Ajax, the web suddenly becoming dynamic.
    1:22:27 In a matter of a few months, Flickr, Gmail, Google Maps, all kind of came into existence, right?
    1:22:37 Like the fact that you have an interactive, dynamic web, the web was evolving from simple text pages, simple HTML, to rich, dynamic applications.
    1:22:45 But at the same time, you could see the browser was never meant for that world, right?
    1:22:57 Like JavaScript execution was super slow, you know, the browser was far away from being an operating system for that rich, modern web, which was coming into place.
    1:23:00 So that’s the opportunity we saw.
    1:23:03 Like, you know, it’s an amazing early team.
    1:23:11 I still remember the day we got a shell on WebKit running and how fast it was.
    1:23:16 You know, we had the clear vision for building a browser.
    1:23:21 Like we wanted to bring core OS principles into the browser, right?
    1:23:25 Like, so we built a secure browser sandbox.
    1:23:27 Each tab was its own.
    1:23:31 These things are common now, but at the time, like it was pretty unique.
    1:23:46 We found an amazing team in Aarhus, Denmark, with a leader who built a V8, the JavaScript VM, which at the time was 25 times faster than any other JavaScript VM out there.
    1:23:48 And by the way, you’re right.
    1:23:51 We open sourced it all and, you know, and put it in Chromium too.
    1:24:00 But we really thought the web could work much better, you know, much faster, and you could be much safer browsing the web.
    1:24:09 And the name Chrome came was because we literally felt people were like the Chrome of the browser was getting clunkier.
    1:24:11 We wanted to minimize it.
    1:24:13 And so that was the origins of the project.
    1:24:20 Definitely, obviously, highly biased person here talking about Chrome.
    1:24:24 But, you know, it’s the most fun I’ve had building a product from the ground up.
    1:24:27 And, you know, it was an extraordinary team.
    1:24:31 Had my co-founders in the project were terrific.
    1:24:33 So, definitely fond memories.
    1:24:38 So, for people who don’t know, Sundar, it’s probably fair to say you’re the reason we have Chrome.
    1:24:44 Yes, I know there’s a lot of incredible engineers, but pushing for it inside a company that probably was opposing it.
    1:24:46 Because it’s a crazy idea.
    1:24:50 Because, as everybody probably knows, it’s incredibly difficult to build a browser.
    1:24:56 Yeah, look, Eric, who was the CEO at that time, I think it was less than he was supposed to it.
    1:24:59 He kind of firsthand knew what a crazy thing it is to go build a browser.
    1:25:07 And so, he definitely was like, this is, you know, there was a crazy aspect to actually wanting to go build a browser.
    1:25:11 But, he was very supportive.
    1:25:13 You know, everyone, the founders were.
    1:25:19 I think once we started, you know, building something and we could use it and see how much better.
    1:25:23 From then on, like, you know, you’re really tinkering with the product and making it better.
    1:25:25 It came to life pretty fast.
    1:25:33 What wisdom do you draw from that, from pushing through on a crazy idea in the early days that ends up being revolutionary?
    1:25:37 What, for future crazy ideas like it?
    1:25:42 I mean, this, this is something Larry and Sergey have articulated clearly.
    1:25:51 I really internalized this early on, which is, you know, their whole feeling around working on moonshots, like, as a way.
    1:25:57 When you work on something very ambitious, first of all, it attracts the best people, right?
    1:25:58 So, that’s an advantage you get.
    1:26:03 Number two, because it’s so ambitious, you don’t have others working on something crazy.
    1:26:06 So, you pretty much have the path to yourselves, right?
    1:26:07 It’s like Waymo and self-driving.
    1:26:13 Number three, it is, even if you end up quite not accomplishing what you set out to do,
    1:26:17 and you end up doing 60, 80% of it, it’ll end up being a terrific success.
    1:26:22 So, so, you know, that’s the advice I would give people, right?
    1:26:27 I think, like, you know, it’s just aiming for big ideas, has all these advantages.
    1:26:34 And, and it’s risky, but it also has all these advantages, which people, I don’t think, fully internalize.
    1:26:38 I mean, you mentioned one of the craziest, biggest moonshots, which is Waymo.
    1:26:47 It’s one, when I first saw, over a decade ago, a Waymo vehicle, a Google self-driving car vehicle.
    1:26:52 It was, it was, for me, it was an aha moment for robotics.
    1:26:56 It made me fall in love with robotics even more than before.
    1:26:58 It gave me a glimpse into the future, so it’s incredible.
    1:27:02 I’m truly grateful for that project, for what it symbolizes.
    1:27:04 But it’s also a crazy moonshot.
    1:27:10 It’s for, for a long time, Waymo has been just, like you mentioned, with scuba diving,
    1:27:16 just not listening to anybody, just calmly improving the system better and better, more testing,
    1:27:20 just expanding the operational domain more and more.
    1:27:24 First of all, congrats on 10 million paid robo-taxi rides.
    1:27:33 What lessons do you take from Waymo about, like, the, the, the perseverance, the persistence on that project?
    1:27:37 I look really proud of the progress we have had with Waymo.
    1:27:46 One of the things I think we were very committed to, you know, the final 20% can look like, I mean, we always say, right, the first 80% is easy.
    1:27:48 The final 20% takes 80% of the time.
    1:27:55 I think we’re working through that phase with Waymo, but I was aware of that.
    1:27:57 So, but, you know, we knew we were at that stage.
    1:28:07 We knew we were the technology gap between, while there were many people, many other self-driving companies, we knew the technology gap was there.
    1:28:17 In fact, right at the moment when others were doubting Waymo is when, I don’t know, I made the decision to invest more in Waymo, right?
    1:28:21 Because so, so in some ways it’s, it’s counterintuitive.
    1:28:33 But I think, look, we’ve always been a deep technology company and like, you know, Waymo is a version of kind of building a AI robot that works well.
    1:28:40 And so we get attracted to problems like that, the caliber of the teams there, you know, phenomenal teams.
    1:28:43 And so I know you follow the space super closely.
    1:28:50 You know, I’m talking to someone who knows the space well, but it was very obvious it’s going to get there.
    1:29:00 And, you know, there’s still more work to do, but we, you know, it’s a good example where we always prioritized being ambitious and safety at the same time.
    1:29:13 Right. And, and, and equally committed to both and pushed hard and, you know, couldn’t be more thrilled with how it’s working, how much people love, love the experience.
    1:29:18 And it, this year has definitely, we’ve scaled up a lot and we’ll continue scaling up in 26.
    1:29:22 That said, the competition is heating up.
    1:29:29 You’ve been friendly with Elon, even though technically as a competitor, but you’ve been friendly with a lot of tech CEOs.
    1:29:32 In that way, just showing respect towards them and so on.
    1:29:35 What do you think about the robotaxi efforts that Tesla is doing?
    1:29:36 Do you see this competition?
    1:29:37 What do you think?
    1:29:38 Do you like the competition?
    1:29:46 We are one of the earliest and biggest backers of SpaceX as Google, right?
    1:29:55 So, you know, thrilled with what SpaceX is doing and fortunate to be investors as a company there.
    1:29:58 Right. And, and look, we don’t compete with Tesla directly.
    1:30:00 We are not making cars, et cetera, right?
    1:30:03 We are building L45 autonomy.
    1:30:08 We’re building a Waymo driver, which is general purpose and can be used in many settings.
    1:30:12 They’re obviously working on making Tesla self-driving too.
    1:30:18 I’m just assuming it’s a de facto that Elon would succeed in whatever he does.
    1:30:22 So like, you know, I, you know, that, that, that is not something I questioned.
    1:30:29 So, but I think we are so far from these spaces are such vast spaces.
    1:30:39 Like I think, think about transportation, the opportunity space, the Waymo driver is a general purpose technology we can apply in many situations.
    1:30:50 So you have a vast green space, uh, in all future scenarios, I see Tesla doing well and, you know, Waymo doing well.
    1:31:04 Like we mentioned with the Neolithic package, I think it’s very possible that in the quote unquote AI package, when the history is written, autonomous vehicles, self-driving cars is like the big thing that changes everything.
    1:31:14 Imagine over a period of, uh, a decade or two, just the complete transition from manually driven to autonomous in ways we went, we might not predict.
    1:31:20 It might change the way we move about the world completely so that, you know, the possibility of that.
    1:31:34 And then the second and third order effects, as you’re seeing now with Tesla, very possibly you would see some, um, internally with alphabet, maybe Waymo, maybe some of the Gemini robotics stuff.
    1:31:41 It might lead you into the other domains of robotics, because we should remember that Waymo is a robot.
    1:31:44 It just happens to be on four wheels.
    1:31:50 So you, you said that the next big thing, we can also throw that into AI package.
    1:31:54 The big aha moment might be in the space of robotics.
    1:31:57 What do you think that would look like?
    1:32:01 Demis and the Google DeepMind team is very focused on Gemini robotics, right?
    1:32:05 So we are definitely building the underlying models well.
    1:32:08 So we have a lot of investments there.
    1:32:11 And I think we are also pretty cutting edge in our research there.
    1:32:14 So we are definitely driving that direction.
    1:32:18 We obviously are thinking about applications in robotics.
    1:32:20 We’ll, we’ll kind of work seriously.
    1:32:25 We are partnering with a few companies today, but it’s an area I would say, stay tuned.
    1:32:33 We are, you know, we are yet to fully articulate our plans outside, but it’s an area we are definitely committed to driving a lot of progress.
    1:32:37 But I think AI ends up driving that massive progress in robotics.
    1:32:41 The field has been held back for a while.
    1:32:45 I mean, the hardware has made extraordinary progress.
    1:33:00 The software had been the challenge, but, you know, with AI now and the generalized models we are building, you know, we are building these models, getting them to work in the real world in a safe way, in a generalized way.
    1:33:02 It’s the frontier we’re pushing pretty hard on.
    1:33:09 Well, it’s really nice to see that the models and the different teams integrated to where all of them are pushing towards one world model that’s being built.
    1:33:16 So from all these different angles, multimodal, you’re ultimately trying to get Gemini.
    1:33:29 The same thing that would make AI mode really effective in answering your questions, which requires a kind of world model, is the same kind of thing that would help a robot be useful in the physical world.
    1:33:31 So everything’s aligned.
    1:33:41 That is what makes this moment so unique because running a company, for the first time, you can do one investment in a very deep, horizontal way.
    1:33:46 On top of it, you can, like, drive multiple businesses forward, right?
    1:33:51 And, you know, that’s effectively what we are doing in Google and Alphabet, right?
    1:33:55 Yeah, it’s all coming together like it was planned ahead of time, but it’s not, of course.
    1:33:56 It’s all distributed.
    1:34:03 I mean, if Gmail and Sheets and all these other incredible services, I can sing Gmail praises for years.
    1:34:05 I mean, it’s just revolutionized email.
    1:34:11 But the moment you start to integrate AI, Gemini, into Gmail, I mean, that’s the other thing.
    1:34:15 Speaking of productivity multiplier, people complain about email, but that changed everything.
    1:34:18 Email, like the invention of email changed everything.
    1:34:19 And it’s been ripe.
    1:34:24 There’s been a few folks trying to revolutionize email, some of them on top of Gmail.
    1:34:26 But that’s, like, ripe for innovation.
    1:34:35 Not just spam filtering, but you demoed a really nice demo of personalized responses.
    1:34:40 And at first, I was like, at first, I felt really bad about that.
    1:34:45 But then I realized that there’s nothing wrong to feel bad about.
    1:34:53 Because the example you gave is when a friend asks, you know, you went to whatever hiking location, do you have any advice?
    1:34:57 And they just search us through all your information to give them good advice.
    1:34:59 And then you put the cherry on top.
    1:35:01 Maybe some love or whatever, camaraderie.
    1:35:05 But the informational aspect, the knowledge transfer it does for you.
    1:35:07 I think there’ll be important moments.
    1:35:14 Like, it should be, like, today, if you write a card in your own handwriting and send it to someone, that’s a special thing.
    1:35:16 Similarly, there’ll be a time.
    1:35:20 I mean, to your friends, maybe your friend wrote and said he’s not doing well or something.
    1:35:26 You know, those are moments you want to save your times for writing something, reaching out.
    1:35:36 But, you know, like saying, give me all the details of the trip you took, you know, to me, makes a lot of sense for an AI assistant to help you, right?
    1:35:39 And so I think both are important.
    1:35:42 But I think I’m excited about that direction.
    1:35:46 Yeah, I think ultimately it gives more time for us humans to do the things we humans find meaningful.
    1:35:53 And I think it scares a lot of people because we’re going to have to ask ourselves the hard question of, like, what do we find meaningful?
    1:35:55 And I’m sure there’s answers.
    1:36:00 I mean, it’s the old question of the meaning of existence is you have to try to figure that out.
    1:36:06 That might be ultimately parenting or being creative in some domains of art or writing.
    1:36:16 And it challenges to, like, you know, it’s a good question to ask yourself, like, in my life, what is the thing that brings me most joy and fulfillment?
    1:36:21 And if I’m able to actually focus more time on that, that’s really powerful.
    1:36:25 I think that’s the, you know, that’s the holy grail.
    1:36:29 If you get this right, I think it allows more people to find that.
    1:36:34 I have to ask you, on the programming front, AI is getting really good at programming.
    1:36:37 Gemini, both the Agentec and just the LLM has been incredible.
    1:36:43 So a lot of programmers are really worried that their jobs, they will lose their jobs.
    1:36:46 How worried should they be?
    1:36:53 And how should they adjust so they can be thriving in this new world where more and more code is written by AI?
    1:37:09 I think a few things, looking at Google, you know, we’ve given various stats around, like, you know, 30% of code now uses, like, AI-generated suggestions or whatever it is.
    1:37:21 But the most important metric, like, how much has our engineering velocity increased as a company due to AI, right?
    1:37:24 And it’s, like, tough to measure and we kind of rigorously try to measure it.
    1:37:28 And our estimates are that number is now at 10%, right?
    1:37:38 Like, now, across the company, we’ve accomplished a 10% engineering velocity increase using AI.
    1:37:44 But we plan to hire engineers, more engineers next year, right?
    1:37:51 So because the opportunity space of what we can do is expanding too, right?
    1:38:10 And so I think hopefully, you know, at least in the near to midterm, for many engineers, it frees up more and more of the, you know, even in engineering and coding, there are aspects which are so much fun.
    1:38:29 You’re designing, you’re designing, you’re architecting, you’re solving a problem, there’s a lot of grunt work, you know, which all goes hand in hand, but it hopefully takes a lot of that away, makes it even more fun to code, frees you up more time to create, problem solve, brainstorm with your fellow colleagues and so on, right?
    1:38:32 So that’s the opportunity there.
    1:38:45 And second, I think, like, you know, it’ll attract, it’ll put the creative power in more people’s hands, which means people create more, that means there’ll be more engineers doing more things.
    1:38:58 So it’s tough to fully predict, but, you know, I think in general in this moment, it feels like, you know, people adopt these tools and be better programmers.
    1:39:02 Like there are more people playing chess now than ever before, right?
    1:39:13 So, you know, it feels positive that way to me, at least speaking from within a Google context, is how I would, you know, talk to them about it.
    1:39:19 I still, I just know anecdotally, a lot of great programmers are generating a lot of code.
    1:39:29 So their productivity, they’re not always using all the code, just, you know, there’s still a lot of editing, but like, even for me, programming is a side thing.
    1:39:32 I think I’m like 5x more productive.
    1:39:46 I don’t, I think that’s, even for a large code base that’s touching a lot of users like Google’s does, I’m imagining like very soon that productivity should be going up even more.
    1:39:52 The big unlock will be as we make the agentic capabilities much more robust, right?
    1:39:55 I think that’s what unlocks that next big wave.
    1:39:58 I think the 10% is like a massive number.
    1:40:09 Like, you know, if tomorrow, like I showed up and said, like, you can improve like a large organization’s productivity by 10% when you have tens of thousands of engineers, that’s a phenomenal number.
    1:40:18 And, you know, that’s different than what others cite a statistic saying, like, you know, like this percentage of code is now written by AI.
    1:40:19 I’m talking more about like overall.
    1:40:20 Actual productivity.
    1:40:22 Actual productivity, right?
    1:40:24 Engineering productivity, which is two different things.
    1:40:28 And, and which is the more important metric.
    1:40:32 And, but I think it’ll get better, right?
    1:40:40 And like, you know, I think there’s no engineer who tomorrow, if you magically became 2x more productive, you’re just going to create more things.
    1:40:42 You’re going to create more value added things.
    1:40:45 And so I think you’ll, you’ll find more satisfaction in your job, right?
    1:40:47 So, and there’s a lot of aspects.
    1:40:56 I mean, the actual Google code base might just improve because it’ll become more standardized, more easier for people to move about the code base because AI will help with that.
    1:41:02 And therefore that will also allow the AI to understand the entire code base better, which makes the engineering aspect.
    1:41:13 And so I’ve been using cursor a lot as a way to program with Gemini and other models is like it, one of its powerful things is it’s aware of the entire code base.
    1:41:15 And that allows you to ask questions of it.
    1:41:20 It allows the agents to move about that code base in a really powerful way.
    1:41:21 I mean, that’s a huge unlock.
    1:41:27 Think about like, you know, migrations, refactoring old code bases.
    1:41:27 Refactoring, yeah.
    1:41:28 Yeah.
    1:41:33 I mean, think about like, you know, once we can do all this in a much better, more robust way than where we are today.
    1:41:38 I think in the end, everything will be written in JavaScript and run, run in Chrome.
    1:41:40 I think it’s all going to that direction.
    1:41:50 I mean, just for fun, Google has legendary coding interviews, like rigorous interviews for the engineers.
    1:41:54 Can you comment on how that has changed in the era of AI?
    1:42:01 It’s just such a weird, you know, the whiteboard interview, I assume is not allowed to have some prompts.
    1:42:03 Such a good question.
    1:42:14 Look, I do think, you know, we’re making sure, you know, we’ll introduce at least one round of in-person interviews for people.
    1:42:15 Yeah.
    1:42:18 Just to make sure the fundamentals are there, I think they’ll end up being important.
    1:42:20 But it’s an equally important skill.
    1:42:26 Look, if you can use these tools to generate better code, like, you know, I think that’s an asset.
    1:42:32 And so, you know, I think, so overall, I think it’s a massive positive.
    1:42:43 Vibe coding engineer, do you recommend people, students interested in programming still get an education in computer science, in college education?
    1:42:44 What do you think?
    1:42:44 I do.
    1:42:46 If you have a passion for computer science, I would.
    1:42:49 You know, computer science is obviously a lot more than programming alone.
    1:42:50 So I would.
    1:42:56 I still don’t think I would change what you pursue.
    1:43:03 I think AI will horizontally allow impact every field.
    1:43:06 It’s pretty tough to predict in what ways.
    1:43:14 So any education in which you’re learning good first principles thinking, I think it’s good education.
    1:43:16 You’ve revolutionized web browsing.
    1:43:18 You’ve revolutionized a lot of things over the years.
    1:43:22 Android changed the game.
    1:43:24 It’s an incredible operating system.
    1:43:26 We could talk for hours about Android.
    1:43:28 What does the future of Android look like?
    1:43:33 Is it possible it becomes more and more AI-centric?
    1:43:46 Especially now, the throw-into-the-mix Android XR, with being able to do augmented reality, mixed reality, and virtual reality in the physical world.
    1:43:53 You know, the best innovations in computing have come when you’re, through a paradigm, IO change, right?
    1:44:02 Like, you know, with GUI, and then with a graphical user interface, and then with multi-touch in the context of mobile voice later on.
    1:44:07 Similarly, I feel like, you know, AR is that next paradigm.
    1:44:15 I think it was held back both the system integration challenges of making good AR is very, very hard.
    1:44:21 The second thing is, you need AI to actually kind of, otherwise the IO is too complicated.
    1:44:29 For you to have a natural, seamless IO to that paradigm, AI ends up being super important.
    1:44:37 So, this is why Project Astra ends up being super critical for that Android XR world.
    1:44:46 Well, but it is, I think when you use glasses and, you know, always been amazed, like, at the, how useful these things are going to be.
    1:44:50 So, I, look, I think it’s a real opportunity for Android.
    1:44:54 I think XR is one way it’ll kind of really come to life.
    1:44:58 But I think there’s an opportunity to rethink the mobile OS too, right?
    1:45:03 I think we’ve been kind of living in this paradigm of, like, apps and shortcuts.
    1:45:05 All that won’t go away.
    1:45:17 But again, like, if you’re trying to get stuff done at an operating system level, you know, it needs to be more agentic so that you can kind of describe what you want to do.
    1:45:24 Or, like, it proactively understands what you’re trying to do, learns from how you’re doing things over and over again, and kind of is adapting to you.
    1:45:27 All that is kind of, like, the unlock we need to go and do.
    1:45:35 With a basic, efficient, minimalist UI, I’ve gotten a chance to try the glasses, and they’re incredible.
    1:45:36 It’s the little stuff.
    1:45:38 It’s hard to put into words, but no latency.
    1:45:40 It just works.
    1:45:46 Even that little map demo where you look down, and you look up, and there’s a very smooth transition between the two.
    1:45:53 And useful, very small amount of useful information is shown to you.
    1:45:59 Enough not to distract from the world outside, but enough to provide a bit of context when you need it.
    1:46:07 And some of that, in order to bring that into reality, you have to solve a lot of the OS problems to make sure it works.
    1:46:10 When you’re integrating the AI into the whole thing.
    1:46:15 So, everything you do launches an agent that answers some basic question.
    1:46:17 Good moonshot.
    1:46:17 You know, I love it.
    1:46:18 Yeah, it’s crazy.
    1:46:26 But, you know, I think we are, you know, but it’s much closer to reality than other moonshots.
    1:46:34 You know, we expect to have glasses in the hands of developers later this year, and, you know, in consumer science next year.
    1:46:35 So, it’s an exciting time.
    1:46:38 Yeah, extremely well executed.
    1:46:41 Beam, all this stuff, you know, because sometimes you don’t know.
    1:46:47 Like, somebody commented on a top comment on one of the demos of Beam.
    1:46:55 They said this will either be killed off in five weeks or revolutionize all meetings in five years.
    1:47:04 And there’s very much Google tries so many things and sometimes, sadly, kills off very promising projects because there’s so many other things to focus on.
    1:47:06 I use so many Google products.
    1:47:08 Google Voice, I still use.
    1:47:10 I’m so glad that’s not being killed off.
    1:47:11 That’s still alive.
    1:47:14 Thank you, whoever is defending that because it’s awesome.
    1:47:15 And it’s great.
    1:47:16 They keep innovating.
    1:47:19 I just want to list off just as a big thank you.
    1:47:21 So, search, obviously, Google revolutionized.
    1:47:22 Chrome.
    1:47:24 And all of these could be multi-hour conversations.
    1:47:26 Gmail.
    1:47:29 I’ve been singing Gmail praises forever.
    1:47:30 Maps.
    1:47:33 Incredible technological innovation and revolutionizing mapping.
    1:47:35 Android, like we talked about.
    1:47:36 YouTube, like we talked about.
    1:47:37 AdSense.
    1:47:39 Google Translate.
    1:47:44 For the academic mind, a Google Scholar is incredible.
    1:47:46 And also the scanning of the books.
    1:47:54 So, making all the world’s knowledge accessible, even when that knowledge is a kind of niche thing, which Google Scholar is.
    1:47:59 And then, obviously, with DeepMind, with AlphaZero, AlphaFold, AlphaEvolve.
    1:48:02 I could talk forever about AlphaEvolve.
    1:48:03 That’s mind-blowing.
    1:48:04 All of that released.
    1:48:13 And as part of that set of things you’ve released in this year, when those brilliant articles were written about Google is done.
    1:48:23 And like we talked about, pioneering self-driving cars and quantum computing, which could be another thing that is low-key, is scuba diving.
    1:48:26 It’s way to changing the world forever.
    1:48:31 So, another potheads slash micro-kitchen question.
    1:48:36 If you build AGI, what kind of question would you ask it?
    1:48:39 What would you want to talk about?
    1:48:46 Definitively, Google has created AGI that can basically answer any question.
    1:48:48 What topic are you going to?
    1:48:51 Where are you going?
    1:48:52 It’s a great question.
    1:49:01 Maybe it’s proactive by then and should tell me a few things I should know.
    1:49:10 But I think if I were to ask it, I think it’ll help us understand ourselves much better in a way that will surprise us, I think.
    1:49:17 And so, maybe that’s, you already see people do it with the products.
    1:49:20 And so, but, you know, in an AGI context, I think that’ll be pretty powerful.
    1:49:23 At a personal level or a general human nature?
    1:49:35 At a personal level, like you talking to AGI, I think, you know, there is some chance it’ll kind of understand you in a very deep way.
    1:49:38 I think, you know, in a profound way, that’s a possibility.
    1:49:52 I think there is also the obvious thing of, like, maybe it helps us understand the universe better, you know, in a way that expands the frontiers of our understanding of the world.
    1:49:55 That is something super exciting.
    1:50:00 But, look, I really don’t know.
    1:50:04 I think, you know, I haven’t had access to something that powerful yet.
    1:50:06 But I think those are all possibilities.
    1:50:26 I think on the personal level, asking questions about yourself could, a sequence of questions like that about what makes me happy, I think we’d be very surprised to learn that those kind of, a sequence of questions and answers, we might explore some profound truths.
    1:50:31 In the way that sometimes art reveals to us, great books reveal to us, great conversations we loved ones reveal.
    1:50:37 Things that are obvious in retrospect, but are nice when they’re said.
    1:50:41 But for me, number one question is about how many alien civilizations are there.
    1:50:42 100%.
    1:50:43 That’s going to be your first question.
    1:50:47 Number one, how many living and dead alien civilizations?
    1:50:50 Maybe a bunch of follow-ups, like how close are they?
    1:50:51 Are they dangerous?
    1:50:56 If there’s no alien civilizations, why?
    1:51:02 Or if there’s no advanced alien civilizations, but bacteria like life everywhere, why?
    1:51:05 What is the barrier preventing you from getting to that?
    1:51:13 Is it because that there’s, that when you get sufficiently intelligent, you end up destroying ourselves?
    1:51:23 Because you need competition in order to develop an advanced civilization, and when you have competition, it’s going to lead to military conflict, and conflict eventually kills everybody.
    1:51:25 I don’t know, I’m going to have that kind of discussion.
    1:51:26 Get an answer to the Fermi paradox, yeah.
    1:51:27 Exactly.
    1:51:29 And like have a real discussion about it.
    1:51:37 I’m not sure, it’s a, I’m realizing now with your answer, it’s a more productive answer, because I’m not sure what I’m going to do with that information.
    1:51:42 But maybe it speaks to the general human curiosity that Liz talked about, that we’re all just really curious.
    1:51:51 And making the world’s information accessible allows our curiosity to be satiated some, with AI even more.
    1:51:56 We can be more and more curious and learn more about the world, about ourselves.
    1:52:24 And so doing, I always wonder if, I don’t know if you can comment on, like, is it possible to measure the, not the GDP productivity increase, like we talked about, but maybe whatever that increases, the breadth and depth of human knowledge that Google has unlocked with Google search, and now with AI mode, with Gemini, is a difficult thing to measure.
    1:52:40 Many years ago, there was a, I think it was an MIT study, they just estimated the impact of Google search, and they basically said it’s the equivalent to, on a per-person basis, it’s a few thousands of dollars per year per person, right?
    1:52:44 Like, it’s the value that got created per year, right?
    1:52:48 And, but it’s, yeah, it’s tough to capture these things, right?
    1:52:54 You kind of take it, take it for granted as these things come, and the frontier keeps moving.
    1:53:00 But, you know, how do you measure the value of something like alpha fold over time, right?
    1:53:02 And, and, and, and so on.
    1:53:02 So it’s.
    1:53:05 And also the increase in quality of life when you learn more.
    1:53:13 I have to say, like, with some of the programming I do done by AI, for some reason, I’m more excited to program.
    1:53:13 Yeah.
    1:53:28 And so the same with knowledge, with discovering things about the world, it makes you more excited to be alive, it makes you more curious to, and it keeps, the more curious you are, the more exciting it is to live and experience the world.
    1:53:35 And it’s very hard to, I don’t know if that makes you more productive, it probably, not nearly as much as it makes you happy to be alive.
    1:53:38 And that’s a hard thing to measure.
    1:53:41 The quality of life increases some of these things do.
    1:53:49 As AI continues to get better and better at everything that humans do, what do you think is the biggest thing that makes us humans special?
    1:54:05 Look, I, I, I, I think it’s tough to, I mean, the essence of humanity, there’s something about, you know, the consciousness we have, what makes us uniquely human.
    1:54:17 Maybe the lines will blur over time and, and it’s tough to articulate, but I hope, hopefully, you know, we live in a world where if you make resources more plentiful
    1:54:32 and make the world lesser of a zero-sum game over time, right, and, and, and, which it’s not, but, you know, in a resource-constrained environment, people perceive it to be, right?
    1:54:48 And, and, and so I hope the, the values of what makes us uniquely human, empathy, kindness, all that surfaces more is the aspirational hope I have.
    1:54:56 Okay, it multiplies the compassion, but also the curiosity, just the, the banter, the debates we’ll have about the meaning of it all.
    1:55:16 And I, I, I also think in the scientific domains, all the incredible work that DeepMind is doing, I think we’ll still continue to, to play, to explore scientific questions, mathematical questions, physics questions, even as AI gets better and better at helping us solve some of the questions.
    1:55:19 Sometimes the question itself is a really difficult thing.
    1:55:29 Both the right new questions to ask and the answers to them and, and, and the self-discovery process, which it will drive, I think.
    1:55:35 You know, our early work with both co-scientists and Alpha Evolve, just, it’s just super exciting to see.
    1:55:39 What gives you hope about the future of human civilization?
    1:55:56 Look, I’ve always, I’m, I’m, I’m, I’m an optimist and, you know, I, I, I look at, you know, if you were to say, you take the journey of human civilization, it’s been, you know, we’ve relentlessly made the world better, right?
    1:56:01 In many ways, at any given moment in time, there are big issues to work through.
    1:56:08 It may look, but, you know, I always ask myself the question, would you have been born now or any other time in the past?
    1:56:16 I most often, not most often, almost always would rather be born now, right?
    1:56:22 You know, and so that’s the extraordinary thing the human civilization has accomplished, right?
    1:56:26 And like, you know, and we’ve, we’ve kind of constantly made the world a better place.
    1:56:35 And so something tells me, as humanity, we always rise collectively to drive that frontier forward.
    1:56:37 So I expect it to be no different in the future.
    1:56:39 I agree with you totally.
    1:56:41 I’m truly grateful to be alive in this moment.
    1:56:44 And I’m also really excited for the future.
    1:56:50 And the work you and the incredible teams here are doing is one of the big reasons I’m excited for the future.
    1:56:51 So thank you.
    1:56:54 Thank you for all the cool products you’ve built.
    1:56:56 And please don’t kill Google Voice.
    1:56:58 Thank you, Sundar.
    1:56:59 We won’t, yeah.
    1:57:01 Thank you for talking today.
    1:57:01 This was incredible.
    1:57:02 Thank you.
    1:57:02 Real pleasure.
    1:57:03 I appreciate it.
    1:57:06 Thanks for listening to this conversation with Sundar Pichai.
    1:57:14 To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description or at lexfriedman.com slash sponsors.
    1:57:20 Shortly before this conversation, I got a chance to get a couple of demos that frankly blew my mind.
    1:57:23 The engineering was really impressive.
    1:57:25 The first demo was Google Beam.
    1:57:30 And the second demo was the XR glasses.
    1:57:33 And some of it was caught on video.
    1:57:37 So I thought I would include here some of those video clips.
    1:57:40 Hey Lex, my name is Andrew.
    1:57:43 I lead the Google Beam team and we’re going to be excited to show you a demo.
    1:57:45 We’re going to show you, I think, a glimpse of something new.
    1:57:46 So that’s the idea.
    1:57:47 A way to connect.
    1:57:50 A way to feel present from anywhere with anybody you care about.
    1:57:52 Here’s Google Beam.
    1:57:55 This is a development platform that we’ve built.
    1:57:57 So there’s a prototype here of Google Beam.
    1:57:59 There’s one right down the hallway.
    1:58:01 I’m going to go down and turn that on in a second.
    1:58:02 We’re going to experience it together.
    1:58:04 We’ll be back in the same room.
    1:58:04 Wonderful.
    1:58:08 Whoa, okay.
    1:58:09 Here we are.
    1:58:10 All right.
    1:58:11 This is real already.
    1:58:12 Wow.
    1:58:12 This is real.
    1:58:13 Wow.
    1:58:14 Good to see you.
    1:58:14 This is Google Beam.
    1:58:18 We’re trying to make it feel like you and I could be anywhere in the world.
    1:58:21 But when these magic windows open, we’re back together.
    1:58:24 I see you exactly the same way you see me.
    1:58:27 It’s almost like we’re sitting at the table, sharing a table together.
    1:58:32 I could learn from you, talk to you, share a meal with you, get to know you.
    1:58:33 So you could feel the depth of this.
    1:58:34 Yeah.
    1:58:34 Great to meet you.
    1:58:35 Wow.
    1:58:41 So for people who probably can’t even imagine what this looks like, there’s a 3D version.
    1:58:41 It looks real.
    1:58:43 You look real.
    1:58:44 It looks for me.
    1:58:44 It looks real to you.
    1:58:46 It looks like you’re coming out of the screen.
    1:58:51 We quickly believe, once we’re in Beam, that we’re just together.
    1:58:55 You settle into it, you’re naturally attuned to seeing the world like this,
    1:58:57 and you just get used to seeing people this way.
    1:59:00 But literally from anywhere in the world with these magic screens.
    1:59:00 This is incredible.
    1:59:02 It’s a neat technology.
    1:59:02 Wow.
    1:59:07 So I saw demos of this, but they don’t come close to the experience of this.
    1:59:10 I think one of the top YouTube comments on one of the demos I saw was like,
    1:59:11 why would I want a high definition?
    1:59:15 I’m trying to turn off the camera, but this actually is,
    1:59:19 this feels like the camera has been turned off and we’re just in the same room together.
    1:59:20 This is really compelling.
    1:59:22 That’s right.
    1:59:26 I know it’s kind of late in the day too, so I brought you a snack just in case you’re a little bit hungry.
    1:59:30 So can you push it farther and it just becomes…
    1:59:31 Let’s try to float it between rooms.
    1:59:33 You know, it kind of fades it from my room into your room.
    1:59:36 And then you see my hand, the depth of my hand.
    1:59:36 Of course, yeah.
    1:59:37 Of course, yeah.
    1:59:39 It feels like you’ve tried this.
    1:59:41 Try giving me a high five and there’s almost a sensation of feeling in touch.
    1:59:42 Yeah.
    1:59:42 You almost feel.
    1:59:43 Yes.
    1:59:46 Because you’re so attuned to, you know, that should be a high five,
    1:59:48 feeling like you could connect with somebody that way.
    1:59:50 So it’s kind of a magical experience.
    1:59:51 Oh, this is really nice.
    1:59:52 How much does it cost?
    1:59:55 We’ve got a lot of companies testing it.
    1:59:59 We just announced that we’re going to be bringing it to offices soon as a set of products.
    2:00:01 We’ve got some companies helping to build these screens.
    2:00:04 But eventually, I think this will be in almost every screen.
    2:00:04 There’s nothing.
    2:00:06 I’m not wearing anything.
    2:00:08 Well, I’m wearing a suit and tie, to clarify.
    2:00:10 I am wearing clothes.
    2:00:11 This is not a CGI.
    2:00:14 But outside of that, cool.
    2:00:15 And the audio is really good.
    2:00:17 And you can see me in the same three-dimensional way.
    2:00:18 Yeah.
    2:00:19 The audio is spatialized.
    2:00:22 So if I’m talking from here, of course, it sounds like I’m talking from here.
    2:00:24 You know, if I move to the other side of the room.
    2:00:25 Wow.
    2:00:29 So these little subtle cues, these really matter to bring people together.
    2:00:32 All the nonverbals, all the emotion, the things that are lost today.
    2:00:33 Here it is.
    2:00:35 We put it back into the system.
    2:00:35 You pulled this off.
    2:00:37 Holy shit.
    2:00:38 They pulled it off.
    2:00:42 And integrated into this, I saw the translation also.
    2:00:44 Yeah, we’ve got a bunch of things.
    2:00:45 Let me show you a couple kind of cool things.
    2:00:47 Let’s do a little bit of work together.
    2:00:50 Maybe we could critique one of your latest.
    2:00:55 So, you know, you and I work together.
    2:00:56 So, of course, we’re in the same room.
    2:00:59 But with this superpower, I can bring other things in here with me.
    2:01:01 And it’s nice.
    2:01:03 You know, it’s like we could sit together.
    2:01:04 We could watch something.
    2:01:05 We could work.
    2:01:08 We’ve shared meals as a team together in this system.
    2:01:12 But once you do the presence aspect of this, you want to bring some other superpowers to it.
    2:01:15 And so you could review code together.
    2:01:16 Yeah, yeah, exactly.
    2:01:18 I’ve got some slides I’m working on.
    2:01:20 You know, maybe you could help me with this.
    2:01:21 Keep your eyes on me for a second.
    2:01:23 I’ll slide back into the center.
    2:01:24 I didn’t really move.
    2:01:26 But the system just kind of puts us in the right spot.
    2:01:27 And knows where we need to be.
    2:01:28 Oh, so you just turn to your laptop.
    2:01:30 The system moves you.
    2:01:32 And then it does the overlay automatically.
    2:01:36 It kind of morphs the room to put things in the spot that they need to be in.
    2:01:37 Everything has a place in the room.
    2:01:41 Everything has a sense of presence or spatial consistency.
    2:01:44 And that kind of makes it feel like we’re together with us and other things.
    2:01:46 I should also say you’re not just three-dimensional.
    2:01:50 It feels like you’re leaning like out of the screen.
    2:01:53 You’re like coming out of the screen.
    2:01:56 You’re not just in that world three-dimensional.
    2:01:56 Yeah, exactly.
    2:01:58 Holy crap.
    2:02:00 Move back to center.
    2:02:00 Okay, okay, okay, okay.
    2:02:02 Let me tell you how this works.
    2:02:04 You probably already have the premise of it.
    2:02:05 But there’s two things.
    2:02:07 Two really hard things that we put together.
    2:02:10 One is an AI video model.
    2:02:11 So there’s a set of cameras.
    2:02:13 You asked kind of about those earlier.
    2:02:18 There’s six color cameras, just like webcams that we have today, taking video streams and
    2:02:22 feeding them into our AI model and turning that into a 3D video of you and I.
    2:02:24 It’s effectively a light field.
    2:02:27 So it’s kind of an interactive 3D video that you can see from any perspective.
    2:02:31 That’s transmitted over to the second thing, and that’s a light field display.
    2:02:33 And it’s happening bi-directionally.
    2:02:35 I see you and you see me both in our light field displays.
    2:02:42 These are effectively flat televisions or flat displays, but they have the sense of dimensionality,
    2:02:45 depth, size is correct.
    2:02:47 You can see shadows and lighting are correct.
    2:02:50 And everything’s correct from your vantage point.
    2:02:54 So if you move around ever so slightly, and I hold still, you see a different perspective
    2:02:54 here.
    2:02:57 You see kind of things that were occluded become revealed.
    2:02:59 You see shadows that move in the way they should move.
    2:03:04 All of that’s computed and generated using our AI video model for you.
    2:03:06 It’s based on your eye position.
    2:03:10 Where does the right scene need to be placed in this light field display for you just to
    2:03:11 feel present?
    2:03:12 It’s real time, no latency.
    2:03:13 I’m not seeing latency.
    2:03:14 You weren’t freezing up at all.
    2:03:16 No, no, I hope not.
    2:03:18 I think it’s you and I together, real time.
    2:03:19 That’s what you need for real communication.
    2:03:22 And at a quality level, this is awesome.
    2:03:24 Realistic.
    2:03:25 Is it possible to do three people?
    2:03:27 Like, is that going to move that way also?
    2:03:28 Yeah.
    2:03:29 Let me kind of show you.
    2:03:33 So if she enters the room with us, you can see her, you can see me.
    2:03:37 And if we had more people, you eventually lose a sense of presence.
    2:03:38 You kind of shrink people down.
    2:03:40 You lose a sense of scale.
    2:03:43 So think of it as the window fits a certain number of people.
    2:03:46 If you want to fit a big group of people, you want, you know, the boardroom or the big
    2:03:48 room, you need like a much wider window.
    2:03:53 If you want to see, you know, just grandma and the kids, you can do smaller windows.
    2:03:57 So everybody has a seat at the table or everybody has a sense of where they belong.
    2:03:59 And there’s kind of the sense of presence that’s obeyed.
    2:04:02 If you have too many people, you kind of go back to like 2D metaphors that we’re used to.
    2:04:04 People in tiles placed anywhere.
    2:04:06 For the image I’m seeing, did you have to get scanned?
    2:04:08 I mean, I see you without being scanned.
    2:04:10 So it’s just so much easier if you don’t have to wear anything.
    2:04:11 You don’t have to pre-scan.
    2:04:15 You just do it the way it’s supposed to happen without anybody having to learn anything or
    2:04:16 put anything on.
    2:04:20 I thought you had to solve the scanning problem, but here you don’t.
    2:04:21 It’s just cameras.
    2:04:22 It’s just vision.
    2:04:22 That’s right.
    2:04:24 It’s video.
    2:04:29 Yeah, we’re not trying to kind of make an approximation of you because everything you do every day matters.
    2:04:31 You know, I cut myself shaving.
    2:04:32 I put on a pin.
    2:04:36 All the little kind of, you know, aspects of you, those just happen.
    2:04:40 We don’t have the time to scan or kind of capture those or dress avatars.
    2:04:42 We kind of appear as we appear.
    2:04:45 And so all that’s transmitted truthfully as it’s happening.
    2:04:48 Chris, how are you doing?
    2:04:48 Good to meet you.
    2:04:49 Nice to meet you.
    2:04:52 So as Max mentioned, we’ve got the eye glasses here.
    2:04:56 We start with the foundation of great glasses, something stylish, lightweight, wearable.
    2:04:59 I’m going to say how can we build great technology and experiences on top of that.
    2:05:05 One of the core tenets of the Android XR platform, this idea of a multimodal conversational device,
    2:05:06 see what you see, what you hear.
    2:05:07 So you’ve got a camera.
    2:05:10 You’ve got speakers, multiple microphones for speaker isolation.
    2:05:13 I’ll give you a chance to try these yourself.
    2:05:14 Yeah.
    2:05:15 Sorry, I woke it up there.
    2:05:16 Whoa.
    2:05:17 Yeah.
    2:05:22 So the first thing you see is a super simple, straightforward home screen.
    2:05:22 Yes.
    2:05:26 So you probably see the time, the weather, calendar appointments there.
    2:05:30 This is designed to be sort of your one-stop shop for quick glanceable information throughout
    2:05:30 the day.
    2:05:34 You want to do something that’s easy to, you know, get what you need and then go back to
    2:05:34 what you’re doing.
    2:05:38 So you can imagine, you know, turning on the display, getting that quick glance and then
    2:05:40 continuing on your way.
    2:05:41 You can be fully conversational at this point.
    2:05:44 You can ask questions, for example, about the paintings.
    2:05:44 You can interrupt.
    2:05:46 You can ask follow-up questions.
    2:05:49 And as I mentioned before, if you want to at any time pause, you just tap there on the
    2:05:49 right.
    2:05:52 Gemini, how much does this painting cost?
    2:05:57 The painting is called The Bridge of Lief a Lief, 1875, by Armand Guillaume.
    2:06:02 It appears to be a print and it would be impossible to know its cost without finding the seller.
    2:06:04 Okay, so this is fake.
    2:06:04 I understand.
    2:06:07 Why do humans pay so much money for paintings?
    2:06:10 People pay a lot for paintings because of their artistic merit.
    2:06:14 The artist’s thing is that sees its rarity and for the appreciation you learn.
    2:06:18 So a few more things that we want to show you just for sake of time.
    2:06:21 Do you go ahead and long press on the side again to sleep Gemini there?
    2:06:22 There you go.
    2:06:25 Did you catch Google I.O. last week by any chance?
    2:06:25 Yes.
    2:06:29 So you might have seen on stage the Google Maps experience very briefly.
    2:06:32 I wanted to give you a chance to get a sense of what that feels like today.
    2:06:34 You can imagine you’re walking down the street.
    2:06:38 If you look up like you’re walking straight ahead, you get quick turn-by-turn directions.
    2:06:41 So you have a sense of what the next turn is like.
    2:06:42 Nice.
    2:06:43 Keeping your phone in your pocket.
    2:06:44 Oh, that’s so intuitive.
    2:06:48 Sometimes you need that quick sense of which way is the right way.
    2:06:48 Sometimes.
    2:06:48 Yeah.
    2:06:51 So let’s say you’re coming out of a subway, getting out of a cab.
    2:06:53 You can just glance down at your feet.
    2:06:55 We have it set up to translate from Russian to English.
    2:06:59 I think I get to wear the glasses and you speak to me if you don’t mind.
    2:07:01 I can speak Russian.
    2:07:04 Hey friend, how are you doing?
    2:07:07 I’m doing well.
    2:07:08 How are you doing?
    2:07:12 Attempted to swear, tempted to say inappropriate things.
    2:07:17 Do you hear my voice immediately or do you need to wait?
    2:07:21 I see it transcribed in real time.
    2:07:26 And so obviously, you know, based on the different languages and the sequence of subjects and verbs,
    2:07:30 there’s a slight delay sometimes, but it’s really just like subtitles for the real world.
    2:07:30 Cool.
    2:07:31 Thank you for this.
    2:07:31 All right.
    2:07:32 Back to me.
    2:07:39 Hopefully watching videos of me having my mind blown like the apes in 2001 Space Odyssey playing
    2:07:42 with a monolith was somewhat interesting.
    2:07:44 Like I said, I was very impressed.
    2:07:50 And now I thought if it’s okay, I could make a few additional comments about the episode and just in general.
    2:07:56 In this conversation with Sundar Pichai, I discussed the concept of the Neolithic package,
    2:08:02 which is the set of innovations that came along with the first agricultural revolution about 12,000 years ago,
    2:08:08 which included the formation of social hierarchies, the early primitive forms of government,
    2:08:14 labor specialization, domestication of plants and animals, early forms of trade,
    2:08:23 large-scale cooperations of humans like that required to build, yes, the pyramids and temples like Gobekli Tepe.
    2:08:29 I think this may be the right way to actually talk about the inventions that changed human history,
    2:08:38 not just as a single invention, but as a kind of network of innovations and transformations that came along with it.
    2:08:43 And the productivity multiplier framework that I mentioned in the episode,
    2:08:50 I think is a nice way to try to concretize the impact of each of these inventions under consideration.
    2:08:56 And we have to remember that each node in the network of the sort of fast follow-on inventions
    2:08:59 is in itself a productivity multiplier.
    2:09:02 Some are additive, some are multiplicative.
    2:09:09 So in some sense, the size of the network in the package is the thing that matters
    2:09:17 when you’re trying to rank the impact of inventions on human history.
    2:09:20 The easy picks for the period of biggest transformation,
    2:09:27 at least in sort of modern-day discourse, is the Industrial Revolution,
    2:09:31 or even in the 20th century, the computer or the internet.
    2:09:37 I think it’s because it’s easiest to intuit for modern-day humans,
    2:09:42 the impact, the exponential impact of those technologies.
    2:09:44 But recently, I suppose this changes week to week,
    2:09:48 but I have been doing a lot of reading on ancient human history.
    2:09:54 So recently, my pick for the number one invention would have to be the first agricultural revolution,
    2:10:00 the Neolithic package that led to the formation of human civilizations.
    2:10:05 That’s what enabled the scaling of the collective intelligence machine of humanity.
    2:10:11 And for us to become the early bootloader for the next 10,000 years of technological progress,
    2:10:16 which, yes, includes AI, and the tech that builds on top of AI.
    2:10:23 And of course, it could be argued that the word invention doesn’t properly apply to the agricultural revolution.
    2:10:31 I think, actually, Yuval Noah Harari argues that it wasn’t the humans who were the inventors,
    2:10:36 but a handful of plant species, namely wheat, rice, and potatoes.
    2:10:43 This is strictly a fair perspective, but I’m having fun, like I said, with this discussion.
    2:10:47 Here, I just think of the entire Earth as a system that continuously transforms.
    2:10:51 And I’m using the term invention in that context,
    2:11:00 asking the question of when was the biggest leap on the log-scale plot of human progress.
    2:11:04 Will AI, AGI, ASI eventually take the number one spot in this ranking?
    2:11:08 I think it has a very good chance to do so,
    2:11:14 due, again, to the size of the network of inventions that will come along with it.
    2:11:22 I think we’ll discuss in this podcast the kind of things that would be included in the so-called AI package,
    2:11:25 but I think there’s a lot more possibilities,
    2:11:29 including discussed in previous podcasts, in many previous podcasts,
    2:11:36 including with Dari Amadei talking on the biological innovation side, the science progress side.
    2:11:41 In this podcast, I think we talk about something that I’m particularly excited about in the near term,
    2:11:49 which is unlocking the cognitive capacity of the entire landscape of brains that is the human species,
    2:11:55 making it more accessible through education and through machine translation,
    2:12:04 making information, knowledge, and the rapid learning and innovation process accessible to more humans,
    2:12:07 to the entire eight billion, if you will.
    2:12:15 So I do think language or machine translation applied to all the different methods that we use on the internet
    2:12:18 to discover knowledge is a big unlock.
    2:12:22 But there are a lot of other stuff in the so-called AI package,
    2:12:25 like discussed with Dario curing all major human diseases.
    2:12:30 He really focuses on that in the Machines of Love and Grace essay.
    2:12:37 I think there will be huge leaps in productivity for human programmers and semi-autonomous human programmers.
    2:12:41 So humans in the loop, but most of the programming is done by AI agents.
    2:12:52 And then moving that towards a superhuman AI researcher that’s doing the research that develops and programs the AI system in itself.
    2:12:55 I think there will be huge transformative effects from autonomous vehicles.
    2:13:02 These are the things that we maybe don’t immediately understand or we understand from an economics perspective,
    2:13:14 but there will be a point when AI systems are able to interpret, understand, interact with the human world to a sufficient degree
    2:13:20 to where many of the manually controlled human in the loop systems we rely on become fully autonomous.
    2:13:27 And I think mobility is such a big part of human civilization that there will be effects on that,
    2:13:32 that they’re not just economic, but are social, cultural, and so on.
    2:13:36 And there’s a lot more things I could talk about for a long time.
    2:13:43 So obviously the integration, utilization of AI in the creation of art, film, music.
    2:13:50 I think the digitalization and automating basic functions of government
    2:13:56 and then integrating AI into that process, thereby decreasing corruption and costs
    2:14:03 and increasing transparency and efficiency, I think we, as humans, individual humans,
    2:14:07 will continue to transition further and further into cyborgs.
    2:14:14 So there’s already an AI in the loop of the human condition,
    2:14:20 and that will become increasingly so as the AI becomes more powerful.
    2:14:24 The thing I’m obviously really excited about is major breakthroughs in science,
    2:14:29 and not just on the medical front, but on physics, fundamental physics,
    2:14:32 which would then lead to energy breakthroughs,
    2:14:37 increasing the chance that we become, we actually become a Kardashev Type 1 civilization,
    2:14:42 and then enabling us in so doing to do interstellar exploration of space
    2:14:44 and colonization of space.
    2:14:48 I think they’re also, in the near term,
    2:14:57 much like with the industrial revolution that led to rapid specialization of skills,
    2:15:01 of expertise, there might be a great sort of de-specialization.
    2:15:07 So as the AI system become superhuman experts of particular fields,
    2:15:14 there might be greater and greater value to being the integrator of AIs,
    2:15:18 for humans to be sort of generalists.
    2:15:24 And so the great value of the human mind will come from the generalists, not the specialists.
    2:15:28 That’s a real possibility that that changes the way we are about the world,
    2:15:31 that we want to know a little bit of a lot of things,
    2:15:33 and move about the world in that way.
    2:15:36 That could have, when passing a certain threshold,
    2:15:40 a complete shift in who we are as a collective intelligence,
    2:15:43 as a human species.
    2:15:47 Also, as an aside, when thinking about the invention that was the greatest in human history,
    2:15:49 again, for a bit of fun,
    2:15:52 we have to remember that all of them build on top of each other,
    2:15:56 and so we need to look at the delta, the step change,
    2:16:01 on the, I would say, impossibly to perfectly measure plot of exponential human progress.
    2:16:05 Really, we can go back to the entire history of life on Earth,
    2:16:10 and a previous podcast guest, Nick Lane, does a great job of this in his book,
    2:16:17 Life Ascending, listing these 10 major inventions throughout the evolution of life on Earth,
    2:16:25 like DNA, photosynthesis, complex cells, sex, movement, sight, all those kinds of things.
    2:16:27 I forget the full list that’s on there,
    2:16:33 but I think that’s so far from the human experience that my intuition about,
    2:16:38 let’s say, productivity multipliers of those particular inventions completely breaks down,
    2:16:45 and a different framework is needed to understand the impact of these inventions of evolution.
    2:16:50 The origin of life on Earth, or even the Big Bang itself, of course,
    2:16:55 is the OG invention that set the stage for all the rest of it.
    2:17:00 And there are probably many more turtles under that,
    2:17:02 which are yet to be discovered.
    2:17:07 So anyway, we live in interesting times, fellow humans.
    2:17:14 I do believe the set of positive trajectories for humanity outnumber the set of negative trajectories,
    2:17:15 but not by much.
    2:17:18 So let’s not mess this up.
    2:17:24 And now, let me leave you with some words from French philosopher Jean de la Bruyere.
    2:17:28 Out of difficulties, grow miracles.
    2:17:32 Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.

    Sundar Pichai is CEO of Google and Alphabet.
    Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep471-sc
    See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.

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    OUTLINE:
    (00:00) – Introduction
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    (07:55) – Growing up in India
    (14:04) – Advice for young people
    (15:46) – Styles of leadership
    (20:07) – Impact of AI in human history
    (32:17) – Veo 3 and future of video
    (40:01) – Scaling laws
    (43:46) – AGI and ASI
    (50:11) – P(doom)
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    (1:48:27) – Questions for AGI
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    (1:57:04) – Demo: Google Beam
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  • #470 – James Holland: World War II, Hitler, Churchill, Stalin & Biggest Battles

    AI transcript
    0:00:05 The following is a conversation with James Holland, a historian specializing in World
    0:00:10 War II, who has written a lot of amazing books on the subject, especially covering the Western
    0:00:17 Front, often providing fascinating details at multiple levels of analysis, including strategic,
    0:00:23 operational, tactical, technological, and of course the human side, the personal accounts
    0:00:31 from the war. He also co-hosts a great podcast on World War II called We Have Ways of Making
    0:00:32 You Talk.
    0:00:39 And now, a quick few-second mention of his sponsor. Check them out in the description or at lexfreedman.com
    0:00:44 slash sponsors is the best way to support this podcast. We’ve got Shopify for selling
    0:00:51 stuff, Element for electrolytes, AG1 for multivitamins, and Notion for team collaboration. She was wise
    0:00:56 and my friends. And now, on to the full ad reads. I do them differently than most podcasts
    0:01:01 do. Usually, I barely talk about the sponsors. Instead, just take this moment to talk about
    0:01:06 the things I’m reading or thinking about. A little Bob Ross-like heart-to-heart between
    0:01:12 you and me. Also, unlike most podcasts, I don’t do ads in the middle. So they all are bunched
    0:01:17 up here in one place. You can skip them if you like. But if you do, please still check out
    0:01:21 the sponsors. I enjoy their stuff. Maybe you will too. If you want to get in touch with me
    0:01:27 for whatever reason, go to lexfreedman.com slash contact. All right, let’s go. This episode is
    0:01:34 brought to you by Shopify, a platform designed for anyone to sell anywhere with a great-looking
    0:01:42 online store. Did you know that the legendary Silk Road was not actually a single road, but an extensive
    0:01:49 network of trade routes connecting east and west, spanning over 7,000 miles? In the upcoming episode
    0:01:55 on Genghis Khan and the Mongol Empire, we touch on this. But of course, Silk Road spans much
    0:02:03 wider in time than the rise and the fall of the Mongol Empire. It facilitated trade and cultural
    0:02:14 exchange for over 1,500 years, roughly from 130 BC. It was spices, tea, paper, gunpowder moving west,
    0:02:22 and gold, silver, silver glassware and horses moving east. But I think the fascinating thing again is the
    0:02:28 exchange of culture and the exchange of ideas. Anyway, sign up for a $1 per month trial period at
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    0:05:33 like a physical notebook with a physical pen. And it feels so limiting.
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    0:06:57 This is the Lex Friedman podcast.
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    0:07:07 And now, dear friends, here’s James Holland.
    0:07:31 In Volume 1 of The War in the West, your book series on World War II, you write,
    0:07:39 The Second World War witnessed the deaths of more than 60 million people from over 60 different countries.
    0:07:42 Entire cities were laid waste.
    0:07:45 National borders were redrawn.
    0:07:48 And many millions more people found themselves displaced.
    0:07:54 Over the past couple of decades, many of those living in the Middle East or parts of Africa,
    0:07:59 the Balkans, Afghanistan, and even the United States may feel justifiably
    0:08:05 that these troubled times have already proved the most traumatic in their recent past.
    0:08:13 Yet, globally, the Second World War was and remains the single biggest catastrophe of modern history.
    0:08:17 In terms of human drama, it is unrivaled.
    0:08:23 No other war has affected so many lives in such a large number of countries.
    0:08:29 So, what to you makes World War II the biggest catastrophe in human drama in modern history?
    0:08:34 And maybe from a historian perspective, the most fascinating subject to study?
    0:08:37 The thing about World War II is it really is truly global.
    0:08:39 You know, it’s fought in deserts.
    0:08:40 It’s fought in the Arctic.
    0:08:43 It’s fought across oceans.
    0:08:44 It’s fought in the air.
    0:08:45 It’s in jungle.
    0:08:47 It’s in the hills.
    0:08:49 It is on the beaches.
    0:08:51 It’s also on the Russian steppe.
    0:08:52 And it’s also in Ukraine.
    0:08:57 So, it’s that global nature of it.
    0:09:01 And I just think, you know, where there’s war, there is always incredible human drama.
    0:09:07 And I think for most people, and certainly the true in my case, you get drawn to the human drama of it.
    0:09:11 It’s that thought that, you know, gosh, if I’d been 20 years old, how would I have dealt with it?
    0:09:12 You know, would I have been in the Army?
    0:09:14 Would I have been in the Air Force?
    0:09:17 Would I have been on a, you know, Royal Navy destroyer?
    0:09:18 Or, you know, how would I have coped with it?
    0:09:20 And how would I have dealt with that separation?
    0:09:23 I mean, I’ve interviewed people who were away for four years.
    0:09:29 I remember talking to a tank man from Liverpool in England called Sam Bradshaw.
    0:09:31 And he went away for four years.
    0:09:33 And when he came home, he’d been twice wounded.
    0:09:36 He’d been very badly wounded in North Africa.
    0:09:38 And then he was shot in the neck in Italy.
    0:09:39 Eventually, he got home.
    0:09:41 When he came home, his mother had turned gray.
    0:09:48 His little baby sister, who had been, you know, 13 when he left, was now a young woman.
    0:09:52 His old school had been destroyed by Luftwaffe bombs.
    0:09:53 He didn’t recognize the place.
    0:09:54 And do you know what he did?
    0:09:56 He joined up again.
    0:10:00 Went back out of Europe and was one of the first people in Belsen.
    0:10:01 So, you know.
    0:10:04 What was his justification for that, for joining right back?
    0:10:07 He just felt completely disconnected to home.
    0:10:13 He felt that the gulf of time, his experiences had separated him from all the normalities of life.
    0:10:26 And he felt that the normalities of the life that he had known before he’d gone away to war had just been severed in a really kind of cruel way that he didn’t really feel he was able to confront at that particular point.
    0:10:28 But he decided to rejoin.
    0:10:30 Couldn’t go back to the 3rd Royal Tank Regiment.
    0:10:31 So, it went back to a different unit.
    0:10:35 Went from kind of the Italian campaign to European theatre.
    0:10:38 Didn’t see so much action at the end.
    0:10:44 But, you know, like a lot of British troops, if you were in a certain division at a certain time, you know, you ended up passing very close to Belsen.
    0:10:48 And, you know, you suddenly realized, okay, this was the right thing to do.
    0:10:50 You know, we did have to get rid of Nazism.
    0:10:53 We did have to do this because this is the consequence.
    0:10:54 It’s not just the oppression.
    0:10:56 It’s just not just the secret police.
    0:10:59 It’s not just the expansionism of Nazism.
    0:11:02 It is also, you know, the Holocaust, which hadn’t been given its name at that point.
    0:11:06 But, you know, you’re witnessing this kind of untold cruelty.
    0:11:11 And I always, you know, I’ve always sort of, I think a lot about Sam.
    0:11:12 I mean, he’s no longer with us.
    0:11:15 But he was one of the kind of first people that I interviewed.
    0:11:16 And I interviewed him at great length.
    0:11:19 And I know you like a long interview, Lex.
    0:11:22 And I totally, totally get that.
    0:11:26 Because when you have a long interview, you really start getting to the nuts and bolts of it.
    0:11:37 One of the frustrations for me when I’m looking at oral histories of Second World War vets is usually they’re kind of, you know, they’re put on YouTube or they’re put on a museum website.
    0:11:40 They’re 30 minutes, you know, an hour if you’re lucky.
    0:11:42 And they’re just scratching the surface.
    0:11:44 You never really get to know it.
    0:11:48 You feel that they’re just repeating kind of stuff they’ve read in books themselves after the war and stuff.
    0:11:56 And, you know, I always kind of leave feeling frustrated that I haven’t had a chance to kind of grill them on the kind of stuff that I would grill them on if I was put in front of them.
    0:12:04 So Tank Man, what was maybe the most epic, the most intense, or the most interesting story that he told you?
    0:12:11 Well, I do remember him telling me, funny enough, it’s not really about the conflict.
    0:12:14 I remember him telling me about the importance of letters.
    0:12:22 And there was this guy who literally every few weeks, you know, post would arrive intermittently.
    0:12:24 There was no kind of sort of regular post.
    0:12:26 So it was supposed to be regular, but it didn’t come around regularly.
    0:12:29 So you might suddenly get a flurry of five all in one day.
    0:12:35 But he said there was this guy and his tank, a member of a different tank crew.
    0:12:38 There was a good friend of his in the same squadron.
    0:12:45 He had British have squadrons for their armor, which is Americans would have a company.
    0:12:52 I should say that in your book, one of the wonderful things you do is you use the correct term in the language for the particular army involved.
    0:12:54 It’s the German or the British or the American.
    0:12:56 Well, that’s not to be pretentious.
    0:13:01 That’s really just because you’re dealing with so many numbers and different units.
    0:13:05 And it can go over your head and you can get sort of consumed by the detail if you’re not careful.
    0:13:09 And as a reader, it can be very unsatisfying because you just can’t keep pace with everything.
    0:13:26 So one of the things about writing in the vernacular German or in the American spelling, our more rather than our Mauer, as we Brits would spell it, is it just immediately tells the reader, okay, this is American.
    0:13:27 Okay, I’ve got that.
    0:13:27 Or this is German.
    0:13:29 I’ve got that or Italian or whatever it might be.
    0:13:30 But yeah, to go back to Sam.
    0:13:37 So Sam, there was this guy in his squadron and he’d get his letters from his girlfriend, his wife.
    0:13:40 And he said it was like a soap opera.
    0:13:52 He said, we all just waited for his letters to come in so we could find out, you know, whether his daughter had, you know, got to school okay or something, you know, won the swimming contest or whatever it was.
    0:13:59 Because, you know, the sort of details of this sort of day-to-day kind of banal life was just absolute catnip to these guys.
    0:14:00 They absolutely loved it.
    0:14:07 And then the letter arrived, the Dear John letter, saying, sorry, I found someone else and it’s over.
    0:14:11 And his friend was just absolutely devastated.
    0:14:21 It was the only thing that was keeping him going, this sort of sense of continuity of home, this sort of foundation of his life back at home.
    0:14:27 And Sam said he could see it was in a really, really bad way.
    0:14:30 And he thought, uh-uh, he’s going to do something stupid.
    0:14:34 And he went up to him and he said, look, you know, I know it’s bad and I know it’s terrible.
    0:14:36 I know you’re absolutely devastated, but you’ve got your mates here.
    0:14:38 Just don’t do anything silly.
    0:14:42 Just, you know, maybe, you know, when it’s all over, you can patch things up or sort things out.
    0:14:44 And he said, you know, you’ve got to understand it from her point of view.
    0:14:45 You know, it’s a long way.
    0:14:48 I haven’t seen you for two years, this kind of stuff, you know.
    0:14:50 So just don’t do anything rash.
    0:14:54 And, of course, the next engagement, two days later, he was killed.
    0:14:58 And he said it was just a kind of, he just knew that was going to happen.
    0:15:01 So it was a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy.
    0:15:03 That’s something I’ve never forgotten, that story.
    0:15:07 And I just thought, you know, it’s about human drama.
    0:15:11 You know, that’s the truth of it.
    0:15:16 And how people react to this totally alien situation.
    0:15:23 You know, for the most part, the Second World War is fought by ordinary, everyday people doing extra ordinary things.
    0:15:25 And I think that’s something that’s so fascinating.
    0:15:30 I suspect, I think I, instinctively, I’m quite slapdash, I think.
    0:15:33 So I think I would have, I’d have bought it, literally.
    0:15:36 I don’t think it would have ended well for me.
    0:15:37 I just, I’m just a bit careless.
    0:15:50 I think I also have an element in me where I can believe in the idea of nation and fight for a nation, especially when the conflict is as grand.
    0:15:51 That things worse than death.
    0:15:57 Yes, as the propaganda would explain very clearly, but also in reality, yes.
    0:16:06 So a nation, you know, France, Britain was, you know, maybe facing the prospect of being essentially enslaved.
    0:16:11 The Soviet Union was facing the prospect of being enslaved, literally.
    0:16:14 I mean, it was very, very clearly stated what they’re going to do.
    0:16:18 They’re going to repopulate the land with Germanic people, so.
    0:16:20 Well, they’re not just going to do that.
    0:16:33 They’re also going to starve lots and lots of Soviet individuals to death by the Hunger Plan, for example, which is planned, you know, really very casually and not by the, you know, this is not SS units or anything like this.
    0:16:34 This is the Wehrmacht.
    0:16:42 This is the economic division of the Oberkommando de Wehrmacht, the German combined general staff.
    0:16:52 General Georg Thomas comes up, you know, and Hermann Bakker, they come up with the, who’s the kind of minister for food.
    0:16:53 They come up, you know, what are we going to do?
    0:16:58 You know, we haven’t got enough food, you know, largely because German farming is inefficient.
    0:17:03 They think, well, you know, this is part of Liebenstrom, we’ll go in and we’ll take the food.
    0:17:08 And there’s been this colossal urbanization of the Soviet Union since the revolution in 1917.
    0:17:14 So they’re just not going to get their food, you know, these people in these cities, because we’re going to take it all.
    0:17:17 And that’s going to lead to, that’s going to lead to a lot of deaths, you know.
    0:17:23 Umpteen millions is the phrase that Georg Thomas used.
    0:17:25 So let’s talk about the hunger plan.
    0:17:32 How important was the hunger plan and Liebenstrom to Nazi ideology and to the whole Nazi war machine?
    0:17:34 Essential to the whole thing.
    0:17:50 This is all about this notion that is embedded into Hitler’s mind and into the minds of the Nazi party, right from the word go, is there is a big sort of global conspiracy, the Jewish Bolshevik plot.
    0:17:55 I mean, completely misplaced that Jews and Bolsheviks go hand in hand and somehow dovetail.
    0:17:56 They don’t, obviously.
    0:18:00 And the whole ideology is to crush this.
    0:18:06 You know, part of the way the Nazis think, the way Hitler thinks, is there is a them and there’s us.
    0:18:11 We are the whites, Northern European Aryans.
    0:18:13 We should be the master race.
    0:18:20 We’ve been threatened by a global Jewish Bolshevik plot.
    0:18:24 We’ve been stabbed in the back in 1918 at the end of the First World War.
    0:18:26 We need to have to overcome.
    0:18:30 This is an existential battle for future survival.
    0:18:34 It’s a terrible task that has befallen our generation, but we have to do this.
    0:18:36 We have to overcome this or else we have no future.
    0:18:37 We will be crushed.
    0:18:39 It’s absolutely cut and dry.
    0:18:47 And one of the things about Hitler is that he is a very kind of black and white, them or us, either or kind of person.
    0:18:49 It’s always one thing or the other.
    0:18:51 It’s a thousand-year Reich or it’s Armageddon.
    0:18:53 There is no middle ground.
    0:18:54 There’s no gray area.
    0:18:55 It’s just one or the other.
    0:18:57 And that’s his worldview.
    0:19:10 And the reason he came to the fore was because of the crystal clear clarity of his message, which is, we’ve been stabbed in the back.
    0:19:12 There is a global plot.
    0:19:13 We have to overcome this.
    0:19:17 We are naturally the master race.
    0:19:19 We have to reassert ourselves.
    0:19:21 We have to get rid of global Jewry.
    0:19:23 We have to get rid of global Bolshevism.
    0:19:25 And we have to prevail or else.
    0:19:29 But if we do prevail, what an amazing world it’s going to be.
    0:19:46 So he starts with this, you know, every speech he does always starts the same way, always starts from a kind of negative and always ends with an incredible positive, this sort of rabble-rousing, crescendo of, if you’re in the front row, spittle, halitosis, and gesticulation.
    0:19:48 I mean, you’ve seen pictures of him.
    0:19:49 I mean, I don’t know if you’ve ever seen pictures of him.
    0:19:54 He’s almost, he wants to grab the air and clutch it to him.
    0:20:00 You know, you can see the kind of the venom coming out of his mouth just in a single still photograph.
    0:20:03 I mean, it’s amazing.
    0:20:07 There’s apps you can get now where you can translate his speeches.
    0:20:13 And it just sounds, you know, by today’s standards, you would just think, what a load of absolute wibble.
    0:20:15 I mean, just total nonsense.
    0:20:27 But you have to kind of put yourself back in the shoes of people listening to him in 1922 or 23, or indeed 1933, and see how kind of captivating that is to a certain part of the population.
    0:20:33 So, yeah, so to go back to your original point, Lebensraum is absolutely part of it.
    0:20:42 So what you do is you crush the Bolsheviks, you crush world Jewry, then you expand, you know, Britain has had this incredible empire, global empire.
    0:20:44 You know, Germany needs that too.
    0:20:45 Germany is stuck in Europe.
    0:20:47 It doesn’t have access to the world’s oceans.
    0:20:49 So we’re not going to be a maritime empire.
    0:20:54 We’re going to be a landmass empire, the whole of landmass of Europe and into Asia.
    0:20:55 That’s going to be us.
    0:20:57 And we’re going to take that land.
    0:21:00 We’re going to take the breadbasket of Ukraine.
    0:21:02 We’re going to use that for our own ends.
    0:21:08 We’re going to spread our – we’re going to make ourselves rich, but we’re also going to spread our peoples.
    0:21:15 We’re going to spread the Aryan northern master race throughout Europe and into the traditional Slavic areas.
    0:21:18 And we will prevail and come out on top.
    0:21:32 And so you have to understand that everything about Operation Barbarossa, the planned invasion of the Soviet Union in June 1941, is totally wrapped up in the Nazi ideology.
    0:21:40 And people, you know, I’ve read it that historians sort of go, if only Hitler had realized that, you know, the Ukrainians had been quite happy to kind of fight on his side.
    0:21:47 You know, if only he’d actually brought some of these Jewish scientists and kind of into the Nazi fold, then Germany might have prevailed in World War II.
    0:21:49 And you kind of think, well, you’re missing the entire point.
    0:21:53 That’s just never going to happen because this is an ideological war.
    0:21:58 Yeah, this is not a pragmatic, rational leader.
    0:21:58 No.
    0:22:05 I mean, part of his effectiveness, we should say, is probably this singular belief in this ideology.
    0:22:07 There’s pros and cons.
    0:22:15 For an effective military machine, probably having that singular focus is effective.
    0:22:36 Yes, except that when you’re making military decisions, if those decisions are always being bracketed by an ideology which is fundamentally flawed from a pragmatic point of view, as much as a kind of reasonable point of view, you’re kind of opening yourselves up for trouble.
    0:22:38 I mean, this is a problem he has with Barbarossa.
    0:22:46 You know, they realized very early on in 1941, when they’re wargaming this whole operation, that it’s not going to work.
    0:22:52 And so, you know, there’s people like General Paulus, who’s on the general staff at the time.
    0:22:56 You know, he’s given a kind of, you know, he’s in charge of kind of wargaming this.
    0:22:57 And he goes, this isn’t going to work.
    0:23:04 And Keitel, who is the chief of the OKW, goes, no, no, no, no, no, no.
    0:23:06 Go back and make it work.
    0:23:07 He goes, OK.
    0:23:10 So he comes back to a plan that does work, but it’s focus.
    0:23:15 I mean, it’s just, it doesn’t work because they don’t have enough.
    0:23:16 They don’t have enough motorization.
    0:23:20 You know, they go into Barbarossa with 2,000 different types of vehicle.
    0:23:30 You know, every single one of those vehicles has to have, you know, different distributor caps and different leads and plugs and all sorts of different parts.
    0:23:38 You know, there’s the interoperability of the German mechanized arm is super inefficient.
    0:23:49 And so you’ve got huge problems because they kind of think, well, you know, we took France in 1940, and that’s kind of one of the most modern countries in the world with, you know, one of the greatest armies and armed forces in the world.
    0:23:50 And we did that in six weeks.
    0:23:55 So, you know, Soviet Union, look, they struggled against Finland, for goodness sake.
    0:23:57 I mean, how hard can it be?
    0:24:06 You know, but what you’re failing to understand is that attacking the Soviet Union is over a geographical landmass, 10 times the size of France, just on the frontage.
    0:24:13 And you haven’t really got much more mechanization than you had in May 1940 when they attacked the low countries in France.
    0:24:17 And you’ve actually got less Luftwaffe aircraft to support you.
    0:24:22 And you just do not have the operational mechanics to make it work successfully.
    0:24:30 I mean, it is largely down to incompetence of the Red Army and the Soviet leadership in the summer of 1941 that they get as far as they do.
    0:24:36 I mean, you know, Barbarossa should never have come close to being a victory.
    0:24:37 Let’s talk through it.
    0:24:40 So Operation Barbarossa that you’re mentioning, and we’ll go back.
    0:24:40 Yes.
    0:24:42 We’ve jumped straight into 41.
    0:24:43 Straight into it.
    0:24:45 I’ve eaten off two years of war.
    0:24:48 So this is June 1941.
    0:24:57 Operation Barbarossa, when Hitler invades the Soviet Union with, I think, the largest invading force in history up to that point.
    0:24:58 Collectively, yeah.
    0:25:00 And there’s three prongs.
    0:25:03 Army Group North, Army Group Center, Army Group South.
    0:25:05 North is going to Leningrad.
    0:25:10 Center is going, it’s the strongest group going directly towards Moscow.
    0:25:14 And South is going and targeting Ukraine and the caucus.
    0:25:18 So can you linger on that, on the details of this plan?
    0:25:19 What was the thinking?
    0:25:20 What was the strategy?
    0:25:21 What was the tactics?
    0:25:23 What was the logistics?
    0:25:36 There’s so many things to say, but one of them is to say that you often emphasize the importance of three ways to analyze military conflict, the strategic, the operational, and the tactical.
    0:25:47 And the operational is often not given enough time, attention, and it’s the logistics that make the war machine really work successfully or fail.
    0:25:50 Yeah, that’s absolutely spot on.
    0:26:01 And it’s interesting because the vast majority of general histories of World War II tend to focus on the strategic and the tactical.
    0:26:02 So what do I mean by that?
    0:26:07 Well, the strategic, just for those who don’t know, that’s your overall war aims.
    0:26:09 You know, get to Moscow, whatever it might be.
    0:26:10 Conquer the world.
    0:26:11 That’s your strategy.
    0:26:15 The tactical side of things is that’s the coalface of war.
    0:26:16 That’s the attritional bit.
    0:26:21 That’s the following his Spitfire, the tank crew, the soldier in his foxhole.
    0:26:23 It’s the actual kinetic fighting bit.
    0:26:30 The operational bit is the level of war that links the strategic to the tactical.
    0:26:38 So it is absolutely factories, it’s economics, it’s shipping, it’s supply chains, it’s how you manage your war.
    0:26:48 And one of the things where I think people have been guilty in the past, historians have been guilty in the past, is by judging warfare all on the same level.
    0:26:56 But obviously, every competent nation has a different approach to war because of the nation they are, the size they are, their geographical location.
    0:26:59 So Britain, for example, is an island nation.
    0:27:04 Its priority is the Royal Navy, which is why the Royal Navy is known as the Senior Service.
    0:27:09 And, you know, in 1939, it’s easy to forget it now when you see how depleted Britain is today.
    0:27:14 But in 1939, it has comfortably the world’s largest navy.
    0:27:17 There’s something like 194 destroyers.
    0:27:24 I think it’s 15 battleships, seven aircraft carriers, and another kind of six on the way.
    0:27:30 America, it’s got the Pacific Ocean, it’s got the Atlantic Ocean, it’s got two seaboarders.
    0:27:32 You know, it has the second largest navy in the world.
    0:27:34 But a tiny army.
    0:27:42 I mean, the US army in September 1939 is the 19th largest in the world, sandwiched between Portugal and Uruguay.
    0:27:44 You know, it’s just incredible.
    0:27:51 It’s like 189,000 strong, which might seem reasonably large by today’s standards, but it’s absolutely tiny by 1939 standards.
    0:27:57 You know, whereas, you know, Germany’s got an army of, you know, three and a half million in 1939.
    0:28:00 So, you know, these are big, big, big differences.
    0:28:03 But America’s coming at it from a different perspective.
    0:28:04 Britain’s coming apart from a different perspective.
    0:28:08 You know, Britain’s empire is all about, you know, it’s a shipping.
    0:28:10 It’s a seaborne empire.
    0:28:18 Whereas there’s also another point, which is having large armies is actually inherently impractical and inefficient.
    0:28:25 Because the larger army, the more people you’ve got to feed, the more kind of barracks you’ve got to have, the more space you’ve got to have for training,
    0:28:30 the more people you’re taking out of your workforce to produce tanks and shells and all the rest of it,
    0:28:32 because they’re tramping around with rifles.
    0:28:37 You know, so there’s an argument saying, actually, it’s really not a very good way of doing things.
    0:28:48 So, you know, very much the British way and subsequently the United States way and way of Britain’s dominions and empire is to use kind of steel, not our flesh.
    0:28:57 As a principle, the idea is that you use technology, mechanization, modernity, global reach to do a lot of your hard yards.
    0:29:00 That’s the sort of basic principle behind the strategic air campaign.
    0:29:07 When we talk about the strategic air campaign, we talk about strategic air forces which are operating in isolation from other armed forces.
    0:29:13 So a tactical air force, for example, is an air force which is offering close air support for ground operations.
    0:29:17 A strategic air force has got nothing to do with ground operations.
    0:29:18 It’s just operating on its own.
    0:29:20 So that’s your bomber force or whatever.
    0:29:29 You know, that’s your B-17s and B-24s of the 8th Air Force flying out of East England, bombing the rural industrial complex of Germany or whatever it might be.
    0:29:38 So it’s important to understand that when you compare, you have to have in the back of your mind that Britain, compared to Germany, for example, is coming at it from a completely different perspective.
    0:29:48 And I would say one of the failures of Hitler is that he always views everybody through his own very narrow worldview, which is not particularly helpful.
    0:29:49 You know, you want to get inside the head of your enemy.
    0:29:53 And, you know, he’s sort of guilty of not doing that.
    0:30:08 So when you’re talking about Operation Barbarossa, to go back to your original question next, you’re dealing with an operation on such a vast scale that that operational level of war is absolutely vital to its chances of success or failure.
    0:30:11 It doesn’t matter how good your individual commanders are at the front.
    0:30:14 If you haven’t got the backup, it’s not going to work.
    0:30:24 And the problem that the Germans have is, yes, they’ve got their kind of, you know, three million men on the front, and they’ve got their kind of, you know, 3,000 aircraft and all the rest of it.
    0:30:27 But actually, what you need to do is break it down.
    0:30:29 And who is doing the hard yards of that?
    0:30:35 And the way the German war machine works is that the machine bit is only the spearhead.
    0:30:38 So people always talk about the Nazi war machine.
    0:30:45 In a way, it’s a kind of misnomer because you’re sort of suggesting that it’s highly mechanized and industrialized and all the rest of it.
    0:30:47 And nothing could be further from the truth.
    0:30:50 The spearhead is, but the rest of it is not.
    0:31:00 And this is the kind of fatal flaw of the German armed forces in the whole of World War II, really, but even in this early stage.
    0:31:09 Because in Barbarossa, you’re talking about 17 panzer divisions out of, you know, the 100-odd that are involved in the initial attack.
    0:31:14 Well, 17, and that panzer division is not a division full of panzers, tanks.
    0:31:19 It is a combined arms motorized outfit.
    0:31:33 So scouts on BMWs with sidecars, armored cars, infantry, grenadiers, panzer grenadiers, which are infantry in half tracks and trucks, mechanized.
    0:31:35 It is motorized artillery.
    0:31:37 It is motorized anti-aircraft artillery.
    0:31:39 It is motorized anti-tank artillery.
    0:31:42 And, of course, it is tanks as well, panzers.
    0:31:52 But those are a really, really small proportion of, you know, you’re talking less than 20% of your attacking force are those spearhead forces.
    0:31:56 And inevitably, they are going to be attrited as they go.
    0:31:58 You know, you are going to take casualties.
    0:32:00 And not only that, you’re not going to just take battlefield casualties.
    0:32:04 You’re also going to have mechanical casualties because of the huge spaces involved.
    0:32:05 You just simply can’t function.
    0:32:11 So what you see is in the initial phases of Operation Barbarossa, they surge forward.
    0:32:14 Red Army’s got absolutely no answers to anything.
    0:32:19 Stalin weirdly hasn’t heeded all the warnings that this attack is brewing.
    0:32:21 And there have been plenty, incidentally.
    0:32:26 Smolensk falls on the 15th of July, you know, in less than four weeks.
    0:32:26 It’s just incredible.
    0:32:28 Three and a half weeks, Smolensk has gone.
    0:32:31 You know, they’ve overwhelmed the rest of what had been Poland.
    0:32:36 They’ve surged into what is now Belarus, taken Smolensk, all of, you know, this is Army Group
    0:32:36 Center.
    0:32:40 Army Group North is thrust up into the Baltic.
    0:32:41 It’s all going swimmingly well.
    0:32:45 But then, the next several months, they barely go 100 miles.
    0:32:47 And that’s because they’re running out of steam.
    0:32:54 And the 16th Panzer Division, for example, by the time it’s taken Smolensk, involved in
    0:32:58 taking Smolensk on the 15th of July, 1941, the following day, it’s got 16 tanks left.
    0:33:00 16.
    0:33:03 Out of, you know, should have 180.
    0:33:06 So, it’s just being attributed.
    0:33:08 They can’t sustain it.
    0:33:12 And they can’t sustain it because as the Russians fall back, as the Soviet Red Army falls back,
    0:33:14 they do their own scorched earth policy.
    0:33:18 They also discover that the railway line is kind of a different loading gauge, so they’ve
    0:33:19 got to change it.
    0:33:23 So, it’s slightly, the Russian loading gauge is slightly wider.
    0:33:30 So, every single mile, every yard, every foot, every meter that they’re capturing of Russian
    0:33:38 railway has to be moved a couple of inches to the left to make it fit the German Kriegsloch
    0:33:42 in the standard train of locomotive of the Reichsbahn.
    0:33:44 Just imagine what that’s like.
    0:33:49 And also, Soviet trains are bigger, so they can take more water, which means the water stops
    0:33:52 in between are fewer and far between.
    0:33:55 So, they have to, the Germans, when they come in, their trains, their Kriegsloch are smaller,
    0:33:58 so they have to be re-watered more often and re-colled more often.
    0:34:06 So, they have to, I mean, it’s absolutely boggling just how complicated it is and how badly planned
    0:34:08 it is because they haven’t reckoned on this.
    0:34:10 They’re having to kind of think on their feet.
    0:34:15 I love the logistical details of all of this because, yes, that’s a huge component of this,
    0:34:17 especially when you’re covering that much territory.
    0:34:26 But there is a notion that if Hitler didn’t stop Army Group Center, it could have pushed all
    0:34:26 the way to Moscow.
    0:34:30 It was only maybe 100 miles away from Moscow.
    0:34:32 Is that a possibility?
    0:34:37 Because it had so much success in the early days pushing forward.
    0:34:45 Do you think it’s possible that if Hitler, as we mentioned from a military blunder perspective,
    0:34:50 didn’t make that blunder, that they could have defeated the Soviet Union right there and then?
    0:34:54 Well, my own view is that they should never have got close.
    0:34:59 Red Army has plenty of men to be able to see off anything that the Germans can do.
    0:35:07 The capture of Kiev, for example, in September 1941 was a catastrophe for the Soviet Union.
    0:35:08 It should never have happened.
    0:35:14 I mean, Zhukov is saying to Stalin, we’ve got to pull back across to the Dnieper.
    0:35:17 And Stalin’s going, no, I can’t possibly do that.
    0:35:19 You can’t abandon Kiev.
    0:35:20 It’s like third city in the Soviet Union.
    0:35:21 No way.
    0:35:23 No, absolutely not.
    0:35:25 And he goes, well, we are just going to be overwhelmed.
    0:35:27 You know, we can’t hold this.
    0:35:31 And he says, you know, either back me or far me.
    0:35:32 Back me or sack me.
    0:35:34 So Stalin sacks him.
    0:35:39 Obviously, as we know, Zhukov gets rehabilitated from pretty quick order.
    0:35:44 And Stalin does learn very quickly thereafter to learn the lessons.
    0:35:48 But the opening phase of Barbarossa has been a catastrophe.
    0:35:54 And so as a consequence of Stalin refusing to let his men retreat back across to Dnieper,
    0:36:00 which is a substantial barrier and would be very difficult for the Germans to overwhelm
    0:36:02 had they moved back in time.
    0:36:07 You know, that’s another kind of 700,000 men put in the bag.
    0:36:10 I mean, that’s just staggering numbers.
    0:36:16 But yeah, I mean, there’s so many things wrong with the Barbarossa plan.
    0:36:18 You know, too much over.
    0:36:19 It’s just such a vast area.
    0:36:25 I mean, you’re talking about kind of, you know, 2,500 miles or something, you know, of frontage.
    0:36:30 You know, maybe if you kind of put your panzer groups, which are these spearheads,
    0:36:34 and you put them all in one big thrust and just go hell for leather straight across on a kind of,
    0:36:38 you know, much more narrow front of, let’s say, kind of 400 miles rather than 1,200,
    0:36:44 then they might have got, you know, they might have just sort of burnt away straight through to Moscow.
    0:36:48 They really caught the Red Army unprepared.
    0:36:48 Yeah.
    0:36:55 Is there something to be said about the strategic genius of that?
    0:36:57 Or was it just luck?
    0:36:59 No, I don’t think so.
    0:37:05 I mean, I think what’s happened is you’ve had the Soviet purges of the second half of the 1930s,
    0:37:10 where they’ve, you know, they have executed or imprisoned 22,500 officers,
    0:37:13 of which, you know, three out of five marshals,
    0:37:19 you know, God knows how many army commanders, et cetera, et cetera.
    0:37:25 So, you know, you’ve completely decapitated the Red Army in terms of its command structure.
    0:37:30 Before that, would it be fair to say it was one of, if not the greatest army in the world?
    0:37:31 Well, there was a lot of experience.
    0:37:33 There’s a lot of experience there.
    0:37:36 But also technology, material.
    0:37:36 Yeah.
    0:37:40 The size of the army and the number of people that are mobilized.
    0:37:40 Yeah.
    0:37:44 And they’re the first people to kind of adapt, you know, create airborne troops, for example.
    0:37:47 So, yes, I think there is an argument to say that.
    0:37:51 But the decapitation is absolutely brutal.
    0:37:53 If you’ve decapitated an army, you’ve then got to put new guys in charge.
    0:38:01 And someone who looks on paper like a half-decent peacetime commander might not be a very good wartime commander.
    0:38:04 They’re different disciplines and different skills.
    0:38:07 And what comes to it, you don’t know that until you’re tested.
    0:38:09 It’s very hard to kind of judge.
    0:38:18 And, of course, you know, Stalin is existing in a sort of, you know, a vacuum of paranoia and suspicion all the time, which is unhelpful when you’re trying to develop strong-arm forces.
    0:38:23 So, they go into Finland in the back end of 1939.
    0:38:26 And they get there, you know, they get really badly hammered.
    0:38:30 They do take about, you know, they get the Karelia Peninsula.
    0:38:31 And they do take some ground.
    0:38:32 But at huge cost.
    0:38:35 I mean, the casualties are five times as bad as those of the Finns.
    0:38:36 And it’s humiliation.
    0:38:42 So, Hitler sees that and thinks, okay, they’re not up to much Cobb.
    0:38:44 Then Hitler loses the Battle of Britain.
    0:38:48 And he thinks, I can’t afford to fight a war on two fronts.
    0:38:56 That’s one of the reasons why Germany loses the war in 1914 to 18 is fighting on the Eastern Front, but also fighting on, you know, the Western Front at the same time.
    0:38:57 We’ve got to avoid that.
    0:38:59 But I’ve got to get rid of Britain.
    0:39:00 And Britain hasn’t come out of the fight.
    0:39:04 Britain is still fighting in the back end of 1940, having won the Battle of Britain.
    0:39:09 And so, maybe I’ll go into the Soviet Union now while the Red Army is still weak.
    0:39:13 You know, we’re not 100% ready ourselves, but let’s hurry the whole thing forward.
    0:39:17 Because originally, he’d been thinking of planning an operation in 1943 or 1944.
    0:39:25 So, the idea is, you take Poland out, you take out France and the low countries, you conquer most of Western Europe, you knock out Britain.
    0:39:29 So, therefore, you don’t have to worry so much about the United States because they’re over the other side of the Atlantic.
    0:39:35 That then buys him the time to kind of rebuild up his strength for the all-out thrust on the Soviet Union.
    0:39:43 The failure to subdue Britain in 1940 changes all those plans and makes him think, actually, I’m going to go in early.
    0:39:49 And he’s also been kind of, you know, he’s hoisted by his own petard because he starts to believe his own genius.
    0:39:55 You know, everyone told him that, you know, he wouldn’t be able to beat France and the low countries.
    0:39:58 Everyone told him that, you know, it wouldn’t work out when he went into Poland.
    0:40:00 Everyone was really nervous about it.
    0:40:05 You know, well, go hang, you cautious, awful, aristocratic Prussian generals.
    0:40:06 You know, I’m the best at this.
    0:40:07 I’ve told you.
    0:40:08 I’ve shown you.
    0:40:09 I’m the genius.
    0:40:10 I can do it.
    0:40:11 He starts to believe his own hype.
    0:40:12 And, of course, this is a problem.
    0:40:16 You know, he’s surrounded by sycophants and people who are constantly telling him that he’s this incredible genius.
    0:40:19 So he starts to believe it and he thinks everything is possible.
    0:40:25 And he’s very much into this idea of the will of the German people.
    0:40:26 You know, this is our destiny.
    0:40:27 And I have a will.
    0:40:30 As I say earlier on, you know, it’s the thousand-year Reich or Armageddon.
    0:40:32 But momentum is with us and we need to strike it.
    0:40:37 And only by gambling, only by being bold will the Germans prevail and all this kind of nonsense.
    0:40:44 And so that’s why he goes into Soviet Union in June 1941 rather than, you know, a couple of or even three years later.
    0:40:47 Yeah, he really hated the Prussian generals, huh?
    0:40:49 Yeah, he hated them.
    0:40:54 Is there a case to be made that there he was indeed at times a military genius?
    0:40:55 No.
    0:40:57 I don’t think so.
    0:41:01 Because none of the plan, I mean, even the plan for the invasion of France and the low countries isn’t his.
    0:41:08 The concept is von Manstein’s and the execution is Guderian’s, Heinz Guderian.
    0:41:16 So Heinz Guderian is the kind of – he’s the pioneer of the panzer force, the panzer thrust.
    0:41:23 This idea of the ultra-mechanized combined arms, panzer arms, spearhead, doing this kind of lightning-fast thrust.
    0:41:26 It’s not Hitler’s idea.
    0:41:32 He adopts it and takes it as his own because, you know, he’s a fury.
    0:41:32 He can do what he likes.
    0:41:35 But it isn’t his.
    0:41:46 So it’s not – you know, and up until that point, until that comes into being, until that plan is put forward to Franz Halder, who is the chief of staff of the German army at that time.
    0:41:49 Halder’s just thinking, how do we get out of this mess?
    0:41:52 This is just a nightmare because they know that France has got a larger army.
    0:41:54 They know that France has got more tanks.
    0:41:56 They know that France has got double the number of artillery pieces.
    0:41:59 It’s got parity in terms of air forces.
    0:42:00 Then you add Holland.
    0:42:00 Then you add Belgium.
    0:42:02 Then you add Great Britain.
    0:42:05 And that looks like a very, very tough nut to crack.
    0:42:17 I mean, the reason why France is subdued in 1940 is 50% brilliance of the Germans and their operational art in that particular instance and 50% French failure, really, and incompetence.
    0:42:39 I mean, there is a kind of genius to be able to see and take advantage and set up the world stage in such a way that you have the appeasement from France and Britain, keep the United States out of it, just set up the world stage where you could just plow through everybody with very little resistance.
    0:42:43 I mean, there is a kind of geopolitical genius.
    0:42:47 I don’t know if it works, but it doesn’t, you know, that’s a problem.
    0:42:52 I mean, you know, I mean, he goes into Poland on the assumption that Britain and France will not declare war.
    0:42:57 You know, he is not prepared for Britain and France declaring war on Germany.
    0:42:59 He thinks they won’t.
    0:42:59 That’s right.
    0:43:01 So miscalculation, blunder.
    0:43:04 But then France does, right?
    0:43:13 And then that doesn’t, you know, France does not successfully do anything with this incredible army that it has.
    0:43:17 It has a size, but one of the problems that France has is that it’s very, very top heavy.
    0:43:21 It’s very cumbersome in the way it operates.
    0:43:29 There’s no question that it’s got some brilliant young commanders, but at the top, the commander is very old.
    0:43:32 Most of them are First World War veterans.
    0:43:40 You know, whether, I mean, Wegan, Gamelan, General Georges, these people, they’re all well into their 60s.
    0:43:44 General Georges is the youngest army commander, and he’s 60.
    0:43:47 You know, it’s too old to be an army commander.
    0:43:49 You need to be in your kind of late 40s, early 50s.
    0:43:56 And they’re too just consumed by conservatism and the old ways.
    0:44:00 And what they assume is that any future war will be much like the First World War.
    0:44:06 It will be attritional, long, and drawn out, but static.
    0:44:08 But actually, they’re right on two parts of it.
    0:44:14 It is, as it turns out, it is going to be long and drawn out and attritional, but it’s going to be mobile rather than static.
    0:44:16 And that’s a big miscalculation.
    0:44:17 So here’s my question.
    0:44:20 I think you’re being too nice on France here.
    0:44:31 So when Germany invaded Poland, correct me if I’m wrong, but it feels like France could have just went straight to Berlin.
    0:44:32 Yeah, they absolutely could have.
    0:44:40 And I know you said it’s very top-heavy, and you’re saying all of these things, but they literally did basically nothing.
    0:44:41 Yeah, they were pulling.
    0:44:50 So, like, and I think a part of that, and I think you described this well, maybe you can speak to that,
    0:45:01 is the insanity that is Hitler creating this psychological, with the propaganda, creating this feeling that there’s this Nazi force that’s unstoppable.
    0:45:05 So France just didn’t want to, like, step into that.
    0:45:12 Maybe they were, like, legitimately, I hesitate to say these words, but scared of war.
    0:45:17 A hundred percent they are, you know, because France has been totally traumatized by the First World War.
    0:45:19 It’s fought on their land.
    0:45:21 It’s fought in their industrial heartland.
    0:45:25 You know, they lose three times the amount of people killed that Britain does.
    0:45:29 Britain’s traumatized by it, but not to the same degree that France is.
    0:45:31 You know, there is just no stomach to do that again.
    0:45:34 And so, that makes them risk-averse.
    0:45:37 And by being risk-averse, you’re actually taking a far greater risk.
    0:45:39 That’s the irony of it.
    0:45:41 And the truth is also, there isn’t the political will.
    0:45:47 And a successful military can only be successful if there is a political will at the top.
    0:45:50 And the problem with France in the 1930s is it’s very politically divided.
    0:46:05 It’s a time of multiple governments, multiple prime ministers, coalition governments, really very extreme coalition governments from the sort of drawn from the left and the right as well as the center.
    0:46:09 And, you know, this is not a coalition of two parties.
    0:46:11 This is a coalition of multiple parties.
    0:46:13 No one can ever agree anything.
    0:46:14 I mean, that’s the problem.
    0:46:24 And it’s amazing that the Maginot line has even agreed, you know, this incredibly strong defensive position down the western side of France of border with Germany, which is kind of largely impregnable.
    0:46:36 But the problem is, is the bit that’s not impregnable, which is the hinge where the Maginot line ends and it sort of basically starts turning kind of towards and in a kind of north, northerly direction and the border with Belgium.
    0:46:48 And, you know, what they should have done is built kind of border defenses all along the northern coast of Belgium because Belgium refused to kind of allow any allied troops into into its territory.
    0:46:49 It was neutral.
    0:46:56 And France should have said, OK, fine, well, then we’ll defend our, you know, we’re not going to come to your rescue if you get invaded.
    0:46:59 That’s your, that’s your, that’s your, that’s, that’s the payoff.
    0:47:06 And the consequence of that, we are going to stoppile everything that and we’re not going to be drawn into the neutral territory should Germany invade from the west.
    0:47:13 But they don’t do that because of the psychological damage of having fought a war in exactly that area a generation earlier.
    0:47:15 And that’s the problem.
    0:47:22 So when they, you know, there is, Germany is so weakened by the invasion of Poland, there was literally nothing left.
    0:47:26 You know, the back door from into Western Germany is completely open.
    0:47:29 And so they do what they call the SAR offensive, but it’s not.
    0:47:38 It’s a kind of reconnaissance in force where they kind of go across the border, kind of pick their noses for a few days and then kind of trundle back again.
    0:47:39 And it’s just, it’s embarrassing.
    0:47:57 And that is what you’re seeing there is, is a nation which is just not ready for this, which is scared, which is politically divided, which is then having a knock on effect on the decision making process, and which is just consumed by military complacency.
    0:48:06 And that’s the big problem there is this, you know, the, the commanders at the very top of the French regime are, are complacent.
    0:48:10 They, they, they haven’t bought into kind of modern ways.
    0:48:14 They haven’t looked at how contemporary technology could help them.
    0:48:27 I mean, it is absurd, for example, that there isn’t a single radio in the Chateau de Vincennes, which is, you know, it’s the headquarters of the commander in chief of the French armed forces, which is General Marshal Maurice Gamelan.
    0:48:34 I mean, it’s just unbelievable, but, but that is the case and, and there’s no getting away from that.
    0:48:40 And, and it is all the more ironic when you consider that France is actually the most automotive society in Europe.
    0:48:49 It’s the second most automotive society in the world after the United States, by some margin, it has to be said as well, you know, has a fantastic transportation system.
    0:48:50 Railway network is superb.
    0:48:57 It’s it, it, there are, there are eight people for every motorized vehicle in France, which is way above Germany, which is in 1939.
    0:49:02 That figure is 47, for example, it’s 106 in Italy.
    0:49:03 So France is very mechanized.
    0:49:04 Very mechanized.
    0:49:07 So come on guys, pull your finger out, get it together.
    0:49:10 And they just don’t, they’re, they’re incredibly slow and cumbersome.
    0:49:19 And what they think is when, what will happen is the Germans won’t think of going, you know, they won’t do a pincer movement because you can’t possibly take motorized forces through, through the Ardenne.
    0:49:29 That’s just, it’s not possible, which is the hinge area between the end of the Maginot, the northern part of the Maginot line, which runs down the western, sorry, the eastern border of France and the northern bit.
    0:49:35 And so what we’ll do with that hinge around the town of Sedan, we’ll, we’ll move into, into Belgium.
    0:49:38 We’ll meet the Germans before they get anywhere near France.
    0:49:39 We’ll hold them.
    0:49:44 And while we’re holding them, we will bring up our reserves and then we’ll, we’ll counterattack and crush them.
    0:49:46 That, that’s the idea behind it.
    0:49:53 But the problem is, is they don’t have a means of moving fast and their communication systems are dreadful, absolutely dreadful.
    0:50:01 They’re dependent on conventional telephone lines, which, you know, dive bombers and whatever are just kind of absolutely wrecking.
    0:50:04 Suddenly the streets are clogged with refugees and people can’t move.
    0:50:07 So they’re then, you know, telephone lines are down.
    0:50:08 There’s no radios.
    0:50:18 So you’re then dependent on sending dispatch riders on little motorbikes, you know, general, uh, Maurice Gamelan sends out a dispatch rider at six o’clock in the morning.
    0:50:20 Um, by 12 o’clock, he hasn’t come back.
    0:50:22 So you then send another one.
    0:50:28 Finally, the answer comes back, uh, kind of nine o’clock at night, by which time the kind of Germans advance another 15 miles.
    0:50:33 And the original message that you sent at six o’clock that morning is completely redundant and has passed itself by day.
    0:50:43 And that’s happening every step of the way, you know, so you’ve got, you’ve got overall commander, um, headquarters, then you’ve got army group, then you’ve got army, then you’ve got core, then you’ve got division.
    0:50:46 So the consequence of all that is that French just can’t move.
    0:50:47 They’re just stuck there.
    0:50:52 They’re rabbits in headlights and the Germans are able to kind of move them, uh, destroy them in isolation.
    0:50:59 Meanwhile, they’re able to use their excellent communications, um, it’s a very, very good effect.
    0:51:01 And you were talking about the genius of, of war.
    0:51:02 It’s not Hitler.
    0:51:03 That’s a genius.
    0:51:13 If anyone’s a genius, it’s Goebbels, the propaganda chief, and it is their ability to harness that they are the Kings of messaging.
    0:51:28 You know, they don’t have, they don’t have X, they don’t have social media, um, but they do have new technology and that new technology, that new approach is flooding the airwaves with their singular message, which is always the same.
    0:51:31 And it has been ever since the Nazis coming to power and it is using radios.
    0:51:41 And I think radios are really, really key to the whole story because there is no denser radio network anywhere in the world, including the United States and Germany in 1939.
    0:51:48 So while it’s really behind the times in terms of mechanization, it is absolutely on top of its game in terms of comms.
    0:51:55 So 70% of households in Germany have radios by 1939, which is an unprecedented number.
    0:51:59 That, that is only beaten by United States and only just.
    0:52:03 So it is, it is greater than any other, other nation in Europe.
    0:52:13 And in terms of flooding the airwaves, it is the densest because even for those who, the 30% who don’t have radios, that’s not a problem because we’ll put them in the stairwells of apartment blocks.
    0:52:14 We’ll put them in squares.
    0:52:16 We’ll put them in cafes and bars.
    0:52:30 And the same stuff, the state, the, the, the, the Nazi state controls the radio airwaves as it does the movies, as it does newspapers, all aspects of the media are controlled by, by Goebbels and propaganda ministry.
    0:52:35 And they are putting out the same message over and over again.
    0:52:36 It’s not, it’s not all Hitler’s ranting.
    0:52:40 It’s entertainment, light entertainment, some humorous shows.
    0:52:44 It is also Wagner, of course, and Richard Strauss.
    0:52:49 It’s, it’s a mixture, but the subliminal message is the same.
    0:52:50 We’re the best.
    0:52:51 We’re the top dogs.
    0:52:54 Jewish Bolshevik plot is awful.
    0:52:56 That needs to be, you know, that’s the existential threat to us.
    0:52:58 We have to overcome that.
    0:52:59 We’re the top dogs militarily.
    0:53:00 We’re the best.
    0:53:02 We should feel really good about ourselves.
    0:53:04 We’re going to absolutely win and be the greatest nation in the world ever.
    0:53:05 And Hitler’s the genius.
    0:53:11 And that is just repeated over and over and over and over again.
    0:53:17 And the, you know, for all the modernity of the world in which we live in today, most people
    0:53:19 believe what they’re told repeatedly.
    0:53:21 Yeah, they still do.
    0:53:24 It’s if you just repeat, repeat, repeat over and over again, people will believe it.
    0:53:31 You know, if you’re a, if you’re a diehard Trump supporter, you want to believe that you’ll
    0:53:32 believe everything he says.
    0:53:38 If you are a diehard Bernie Sanders, man, you know, you’re from the left, you’ll believe
    0:53:42 everything he says because it’s reinforcing what you already want to, what you, what you
    0:53:42 already want to believe.
    0:53:48 But the scary thing is, uh, you know, radio is the technology of the day, the technology
    0:53:55 of the day today, which is a terrifying one for me is, uh, uh, I would say AI on social
    0:53:55 media.
    0:54:02 So bots, you can have basically bot farms, which I assume is used by Ukraine, by Russia,
    0:54:08 by U S I, I would love to read the history written about this era, about the information
    0:54:14 wars, who has the biggest bot farms, who has the biggest propaganda machines.
    0:54:22 And when I say bot, I mean, both automated AI bots and humans operating large number of
    0:54:24 smartphones with SIM cards.
    0:54:29 They’re just able to boost messages enough to where they become viral.
    0:54:33 And then real humans with real opinions get excited.
    0:54:36 Also, it’s like this vicious cycle.
    0:54:40 So if you support your nation, all you need is a little boost and then everybody gets
    0:54:41 real excited.
    0:54:47 And then now you’re chanting and now you’re in this mass hysteria and now it’s the 1984,
    0:54:48 two minutes of hate.
    0:54:50 And the message is clear.
    0:54:54 I mean, that’s what propaganda does is it really clarifies the mind.
    0:55:00 That is exactly what, what Hitler and the Nazis and Goebbels are doing in the 1930s while they’re
    0:55:02 doing it in the 1920s as well, but more effectively once they come into power, of course.
    0:55:11 Hitler is so fortunate that he comes, he takes over the chancellorship in January, 1933 at
    0:55:18 a time where the economy is just starting to turn and he’s able to make the most of that.
    0:55:22 And, you know, if you’re Germans and you’ve been through hyperinflation in the early 1920s,
    0:55:28 you’ve been through the humiliation of Versailles Treaty, which was terrible error in retrospect.
    0:55:35 You’ve been through then having got through that, you’ve emerged into a kind of democratic
    0:55:42 Weimar Republic, which is based on manufacturing, you know, Germany’s a traditional genius at
    0:55:48 engineering and manufacturing and production of high quality items.
    0:55:50 They’re merging through that.
    0:55:55 Then you have the Wall Street crash and the loans that are coming in from America, which is
    0:56:00 propping up the entire German economy, suddenly get cut off and you’ve suddenly got depression again
    0:56:02 and, and massive unemployment.
    0:56:10 And suddenly Hitler comes in and everyone’s got jobs and they’re rebuilding and they’re growing
    0:56:10 their military.
    0:56:16 And the message that’s coming out is we’re the greatest, we’re the best, we’re fantastic.
    0:56:21 You know, I was telling you earlier on about, about Hitler’s speeches, starting with the
    0:56:26 dark, starting dark and ending in, in hope and light and the sunlit uplands, you know,
    0:56:26 that’s what you’re getting.
    0:56:28 You’re suddenly getting this vision of hope.
    0:56:31 This is sort of, you know, my God, actually this is really working, you know?
    0:56:32 Okay.
    0:56:37 So, you know, I’m not sure that I particularly buy into the kind of antisemitic thing, but,
    0:56:39 you know, we’ll sweep that under the carpet.
    0:56:43 Cause overall I’ve now got a job, I’ve got money, I’ve got my new radio, you know, and
    0:56:45 then this is a genius about the radios, for example.
    0:56:49 So they have the, uh, they have the, the, the German receiver to start off with the, the
    0:56:54 Deutsche Fanger, and then they have the Deutsche Kleinem Fanger, which is the German little
    0:56:55 receiver, little radio.
    0:56:56 These are geniuses.
    0:57:00 This is, this is as outrageous as the arrival of the iPod.
    0:57:04 I mean, remember that, you know, suddenly you don’t have to have a Sony Walkman anymore.
    0:57:08 You can have something really, really small and miniature and listen to thousands and
    0:57:09 thousands and thousands of songs all at once.
    0:57:10 What an, what an amazing thing.
    0:57:15 And the Deutsche Kleinem Fanger is nine inches by four inches by four inches.
    0:57:19 It’s made of Bakelite and everyone can have one cause it’s super cheap.
    0:57:20 It’s just incredible.
    0:57:25 And no one else said that because up until that point, radios, generally speaking are
    0:57:26 aspirational.
    0:57:29 You know, they’ve got sort of a walnut lacquer at the front and, you know, you have them if
    0:57:33 you’re middle class and you show them off to your neighbors to show how kind of, you
    0:57:35 know, affluent and well to do you are.
    0:57:37 Um, but suddenly everyone can have one.
    0:57:41 And if everyone can have one, then everyone can receive the same message.
    0:57:44 And you can, and you can also, and this is the whole point about the Hitler youth as well.
    0:57:47 You know, the young guys, that’s where they’re, they’re most impressionistic.
    0:57:50 They’re, they’re least risk averse.
    0:57:51 So they’re most gung ho.
    0:57:55 They’re, they’re most full of excitement for the possibilities of life.
    0:57:59 And they’re also, their minds are the most open to suggestion.
    0:58:02 So you get the youth, you hang on, you get them.
    0:58:07 And so a whole generation of young men are brought up thinking about the genius of Hitler and how
    0:58:12 he’s delivering us this much better nation and returning our, um, over, overhauling the
    0:58:17 humiliations of the first world war where overcoming the back, uh, the stab in the back that happened
    0:58:19 in 1918, et cetera, et cetera.
    0:58:25 And, you know, as a young 16, 17 year old German, you’re thinking, yeah, I want a piece of that.
    0:58:27 And, and Hey, guess what?
    0:58:32 They’ve got really cool uniforms and, and, you know, come and join the SS and, you know, get the fro line.
    0:58:36 You know, what’s not to like, you know, you can see why, why it’s so clever.
    0:58:44 Uh, and what’s so interesting is propaganda today is, is still using those, those tenets that Goebbels
    0:58:47 was using back in the 1930s.
    0:58:49 And this is why I would say, say that, you know, history doesn’t repeat itself.
    0:58:50 Of course it doesn’t.
    0:58:54 It can’t possibly repeat itself because we’re always living in a constantly evolving time,
    0:58:56 but patterns of human behavior do.
    0:59:00 And what you always get after economic crisis is political upheaval.
    0:59:01 Always, always, always.
    0:59:04 Because some people are in a worse off position than they were financially before.
    0:59:07 They’re thinking, well, you know, the current system doesn’t work.
    0:59:07 What’s the alternative?
    0:59:13 So, you know, in the case of, of, of now we in the West, you know, we face, first of all,
    0:59:16 we face the crisis of 2008, financial crisis of 2008.
    0:59:18 Then we’ve had the kind of double whammy of COVID.
    0:59:21 And that has been incredibly unsettling.
    0:59:25 And so we’re now in a, a, a situation of, of political turmoil.
    0:59:29 And whether you’re, whether you’re, uh, whether you’re pro-Trump or anti-Trump, what he’s
    0:59:31 offering is something completely different.
    0:59:36 And, you know, it’s say, you know, he, he’s saying the old ways don’t work.
    0:59:38 You know, I’m going to be, I’m just going to say what I think.
    0:59:39 I’m just going to, I’m going to come out.
    0:59:43 I’m not going to bother with all the sheen of diplomacy and kind of, you know, mealy mouth
    0:59:47 words that politicians always use, you know, which, where you can’t trust anyone.
    0:59:48 I’m just going to tell you as it is.
    0:59:50 And obviously people respond to that.
    0:59:53 You know, you, you, you can understand why that has a, has an appeal.
    0:59:58 And if the country already feels broken and here’s someone who is going to be a disruptor
    1:00:03 and going to change the way you go about things, you can see why a, a, a reasonably large proportion
    1:00:06 of the population is going to go, I’ll have a piece of that.
    1:00:07 Thank you very much.
    1:00:13 And especially, uh, when the country is in a economic crisis, like Germany was, I think
    1:00:19 you’ve written that, uh, the treaty of Versailles created Hitler and the, uh, the wall street
    1:00:23 crash and the great depression brought him to power.
    1:00:29 And of course the propaganda machine that you describe is the thing that got everybody
    1:00:30 else in Germany on board.
    1:00:31 Yeah.
    1:00:36 It’s, it’s, it’s amazing how he, he, cause he comes in with 33% of the vote.
    1:00:40 He had 37% of the throat of the vote in July, 1932.
    1:00:44 So again, this is another period of turmoil, just like it is in France where you’re having
    1:00:48 constant different kind of coalitions and, you know, different chancellors, leaders of
    1:00:49 Germany.
    1:00:53 So it’s very possible he, he, he wouldn’t have come to power.
    1:00:57 Well, he said, he said, I will only, uh, you know, the, we will only take our seats if,
    1:01:00 if, if, if I can be chancellor, otherwise forget it, I’m not coming into any coalition.
    1:01:07 So then the, uh, the government falls again in January, 1933, they have the, uh, they have
    1:01:07 the election.
    1:01:14 The Nazi vote is down from where it was the previous summer, but this time they go, okay,
    1:01:18 Peter can be chancellor, but we’ll manipulate him wrong.
    1:01:20 They were, you know, he’s manipulating everyone.
    1:01:24 And then Hindenburg, who is the president dies the following summer.
    1:01:29 And, uh, he’s able to get rid of the presidency.
    1:01:30 There is no more president of Germany.
    1:01:32 There is just the Fuhrer, him.
    1:01:38 And he gets rid of, uh, he has a, in actually enabling act, which is where all other, uh, political
    1:01:40 parties have, uh, disbanded.
    1:01:42 And suddenly you’ve got a totalitarian state just like that.
    1:01:44 I think there’s a lesson there.
    1:01:52 Uh, there’s many lessons there, but one of them is don’t let an extremist into government
    1:01:54 and assume you can control them.
    1:01:54 Yes.
    1:01:58 The arrogance of the existing politicians who just completely screwed it up.
    1:02:01 I mean, there is a real power to an extremist.
    1:02:07 Like there’s, uh, a person who sees the world in, in black and white.
    1:02:15 Can really gain the attention and the support of the populace.
    1:02:21 Especially when there’s a resentment about like treaty of Versailles, when there’s economic
    1:02:29 hardship and if there’s effective modern technology that allows you to do propaganda and sell the
    1:02:32 message, there’s something really compelling about the black and white message.
    1:02:34 It is because it’s simple.
    1:02:40 And what Hitler does throughout the 1920s is he sticks to this.
    1:02:44 There, there is actually, when he comes out of prison in, so he, there’s the Bihl putsch in
    1:02:45 November, 1923.
    1:02:53 He gets, uh, charged with treason, which he has been because he’s attempting a coup and he gets
    1:02:57 sentenced to five years, which is pretty lenient for what he’s done.
    1:03:00 And he then gets let out after nine months.
    1:03:07 The Nazi party is, is, is, is, is banned at that point, but then comes back into being.
    1:03:13 And the year that follows, there is then a substantial debate about where the party should go.
    1:03:19 And there are actually a large number of people who think that actually they should be looking at how
    1:03:24 the Soviets are doing things and taking some of the, some of the things that they consider to be
    1:03:28 positive out of the communist state and applying those to the Nazis.
    1:03:30 And Hitler goes, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
    1:03:35 We, we, we, we’ve just got to stick to this kind of Jewish Bolshevik thing.
    1:03:36 This is, this is how we’re going to do it.
    1:03:37 This is what we’re going to do it.
    1:03:41 Goebbels, for example, who is, who is very open.
    1:03:46 He’s a, he’s very, very, Joseph Goebbels is a, he’s a, he’s a not very successful, um,
    1:03:47 um, uh, journalist.
    1:03:50 He is, uh, but he does have a PhD in German, German literature.
    1:03:55 He’s very disaffected because he was born with talapes, which is, you know, more commonly known
    1:03:56 as a club foot.
    1:03:57 He’s disabled.
    1:03:58 He can’t fight in the first world war.
    1:04:00 He’s very frustrated by that.
    1:04:05 He’s in a deep despair about, about the state of Germany in the first part of the early
    1:04:05 1920s.
    1:04:14 He’s looking for a, um, a, a, a political messiah, a sort of quasi-religious messiah, thinks it’s
    1:04:20 Hitler, then discovers that Hitler’s not open to any ideas at all, uh, about any deviation,
    1:04:22 but then sees the light.
    1:04:26 Hitler recognizes that this guy is someone that he wants on his side.
    1:04:29 And so then goes to him, makes a real special effort.
    1:04:30 Come on, come to dinner.
    1:04:31 I think you’re great.
    1:04:35 You know, all this kind of stuff wins about over and Goebbels has this complete,
    1:04:39 Walt Fass discards his earlier kind of, yeah, you know, Hitler’s right.
    1:04:40 I was wrong.
    1:04:43 Hitler is the kind of messiah figure that, that I want to follow.
    1:04:45 I want to follow the hero, hero leader.
    1:04:51 And they come on board and they absolutely work out and Hitler completely wins out of all dissenters
    1:04:55 within the, what had been the German Workers’ Party to what becomes the German National Socialist
    1:04:56 Party, becomes the Nazis.
    1:05:05 Um, he comes out, emerges as the absolute undisputed Führer of that leader of that, that party and
    1:05:06 what he says goes.
    1:05:07 And everyone tows him behind it.
    1:05:12 And part of the genius of that, you know, Hitler does have some genius.
    1:05:14 I just don’t think it’s military, but he does have some genius.
    1:05:18 And a question about it is the simplicity of message.
    1:05:21 What he’s doing is, it’s that kind of us and them thing that we were talking about earlier on.
    1:05:25 It’s a kind of either or, it’s kind of, it’s my way or the highway.
    1:05:29 It’s kind of, this is the only way, this is how we get to the sunlit uplands.
    1:05:37 This is how we, we create this amazing master race of the, this unification of German peoples,
    1:05:42 which dominates the world, which is the preeminent power in the world for the next thousand years.
    1:05:48 Or it’s decay and despair and being crushed by our enemies.
    1:05:51 And our enemies are the Jews and the Bolsheviks, the communists.
    1:05:58 And what he taps into as well is Front Gemeinschaft and Volksgemeinschaft.
    1:06:05 And these are, there’s no direct English translation of Volksgemeinschaft or indeed Front Gemeinschaft.
    1:06:13 But, but, but in its most basic form, it’s communities, it’s people community or Front Veterans community.
    1:06:19 So the Front Gemeinschaft is, we are the guys, we’re bonded because we were in the trenches.
    1:06:21 You know, we were in the First World War.
    1:06:26 We were the people who bravely stuck it out, saw our friends being slaughtered and blown to pieces.
    1:06:32 We, we did our duty as proud Germans, but we were let down by the elites.
    1:06:36 And we were let down by the, by this Jewish Bolshevik plot.
    1:06:39 You know, we were stabbed in the back.
    1:06:42 The myth of the stabbing, stabbing in the back is very, very strong.
    1:06:50 So we’re bound, we’re bonded by our experience of the First World War and the fact that we did what we should and what we could.
    1:06:53 And we would, we didn’t fail in what we were doing.
    1:06:57 We were failed by our leaders and by the elites.
    1:07:00 So that’s, that’s Front Gemeinschaft.
    1:07:05 Volksgemeinschaft is this sense of national unity.
    1:07:13 It’s, it’s, it’s a cultural, ethnic bonding of people who speak German, who have a, have a similar outlook on life.
    1:07:17 And again, that just reinforces the us and them.
    1:07:18 Good and evil.
    1:07:21 It reinforces the black and white worldview.
    1:07:28 And then you add that to this very simple message, which Hitler is repeating over and over again.
    1:07:30 Communists are a big threat.
    1:07:32 Jews are a big threat.
    1:07:33 They’re the, they’re the enemy.
    1:07:39 You have to have a, you have to have an opposition in the them and us kind of process.
    1:07:41 And that’s what he’s doing.
    1:07:43 And people just buy into it.
    1:07:44 They go, yeah, we’re together.
    1:07:45 We’re Germans.
    1:07:48 We’re, we’re, we’re, you know, we’re a brotherhood.
    1:07:58 We’ve got a Volksgemeinschaft and so he cleverly ties into that and taps into that, but they’re an irrelevance by the late 1920s.
    1:08:03 You know, by 1928, you know, the, the, he’s not going to get a deal for Mein Kampf part two.
    1:08:06 You know, he, he’s, he’s, he’s impoverished.
    1:08:07 The party’s impoverished.
    1:08:08 Numbers are down.
    1:08:11 They’re, they’re kind of, you know, a best and a, and a relevance.
    1:08:14 We should say he wrote Mein Kampf at this time when he was in prison.
    1:08:18 Well, he writes, he writes most of Mein Kampf in prison, in Landsberg prison.
    1:08:25 And then he writes the rest of it in what becomes known as the Kampfhausel, which is this little wooden hut in the, in the Ober Salzburg.
    1:08:27 And you can still see the remnants of that.
    1:08:33 And unfortunately there’s still little candles there and stuff in the woods and, you know, by, by neo-Nazis and whatnot, what have you.
    1:08:35 But that’s where he wrote, wrote the rest of it.
    1:08:40 I mean, it was Jean-Jacques Rousseau who says man has his greatest force when surrounded by nature.
    1:08:43 That was something that kind of Hitler took very much to heart.
    1:08:46 There was a, there was a mentor of his called Dietrich Eckhart.
    1:08:55 Dietrich Eckhart introduced him to the Ober Salzburg and the beauty of the Southwest, Southeast Bavarian Alps around Berkis Garden.
    1:08:59 And, and that was his favorite place on the planet.
    1:09:04 And that’s where he, that’s where he eventually bought the, the, the Berghof.
    1:09:14 With the royalties, it has to be said from Mein Kampf, which went from being, you know, almost pulp to suddenly being a runaway bestseller, unfortunately.
    1:09:16 Can you actually comment on that?
    1:09:19 It’s a shitty manifesto as far as manifestos goes.
    1:09:26 I think there’s a lot of values to understand from a first person perspective, the words of a dictator, of a person like Hitler.
    1:09:30 But it just feels like that’s just such a shitty.
    1:09:30 Yeah.
    1:09:32 I mean, you know, it’s banned in a number of countries.
    1:09:34 You don’t need to because no one’s going to read it because it’s unreadable.
    1:09:38 I mean, it’s, it’s very untidy.
    1:09:39 It’s, it’s very incoherent.
    1:09:45 It’s, it’s got no, there’s no narrative arc to use the kind of, you know, right, a writer’s phrase.
    1:09:55 I mean, it’s just, it’s, but, but, but it does give you a very clear, you know, the overall impression you get at the end of it is, is, is, is the kind of communists and the Jews are to blame for everything.
    1:09:55 Yeah.
    1:10:01 But there’s also the component of, you know, predicting basically World War II there.
    1:10:03 So it’s not just there to blame for everything.
    1:10:04 Oh, no, he’s, he’s hungry for war.
    1:10:05 Right.
    1:10:09 He, he thinks that this is, this is the natural state that we have to have this terrible conflict.
    1:10:12 And once the conflict’s over, Germany will emerge victorious.
    1:10:14 And then there will be the thousand year Reich.
    1:10:17 I mean, I’m finding myself in, in talking to you.
    1:10:20 I keep saying this kind of, you know, it’s, it’s Armageddon or the thousand year Reich.
    1:10:26 It’s because it comes up, it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s unavoidable because that’s how he’s speaking the whole time.
    1:10:29 It’s just the same message over and over and over and over again.
    1:10:41 It’s a pretty unique way of speaking, sort of allowing violence as a tool in this picture, that there’s a hierarchy, that there’s a superior race and inferior races.
    1:10:44 And it’s okay to destroy the inferior ones.
    1:10:46 Usually politicians will speak that way.
    1:10:50 They just say, well, here’s good and evil.
    1:10:51 We’re the good guys.
    1:10:55 And yeah, maybe we’ll destroy the evil a little bit.
    1:11:03 No, here is like, there’s a complete certainty about a very large number of people, the Slavic people.
    1:11:05 They just need to be removed.
    1:11:06 Well, they need to be made an irrelevance.
    1:11:07 You know, we have to take it.
    1:11:08 We have to take it.
    1:11:12 And in fact, if that kills millions of them, fine, then they can sort of squish their way over to Siberia.
    1:11:12 Right.
    1:11:13 It doesn’t matter where they go.
    1:11:14 Or Kamchatka, whatever they go.
    1:11:14 I don’t care.
    1:11:18 We just need to populate this land that belongs to German people.
    1:11:18 Yeah.
    1:11:20 Because they’re the superior people.
    1:11:22 There’s no question that he glorified violence and war.
    1:11:24 You know, he’s absolutely chomping at the bit.
    1:11:32 And in a way, I think he’s a bit disappointed that in the 1930s, the conquests that he does undertake are also peaceful.
    1:11:36 You know, March 1948 goes straight into Austria.
    1:11:38 There’s the Anschluss, you know, not a shot is fired.
    1:11:47 You know, 1936 goes into the Rhineland, reconquers that, retakes that over that from the occupying allies.
    1:11:48 Not a shot is fired.
    1:11:56 You know, he takes a sedation land, not a shot, barely a shot is fired, and then goes into the rest of Czechoslovakia in March 1939.
    1:11:58 And again, barely a shot is fired.
    1:12:00 And, you know, it’s a bit disappointing.
    1:12:02 You know, he wants to be tested.
    1:12:05 He wants to kind of have the wartime triumph.
    1:12:09 You can see him being frustrated about this in the Munich crisis in 1938.
    1:12:10 He wants to fight.
    1:12:11 He’s absolutely spoiling for it.
    1:12:13 He’s desperate to go in.
    1:12:14 He’s already in gung-ho.
    1:12:15 He’s built his Luftwaffe.
    1:12:18 He’s got his panzers now.
    1:12:21 He’s got his massive armed forces.
    1:12:23 You know, he wants to test them.
    1:12:26 He wants to get this show on the road and prove it.
    1:12:29 You know, he’s an arch gambler, Hitler.
    1:12:44 You make it seem so clear, but all the while, to the rest of the world, to Chamberlain, to France, to Britain, to the rest of the world, he’s saying he doesn’t want that.
    1:12:46 He’s making agreements.
    1:12:48 Everything you just mentioned, you just went through it so quickly.
    1:12:53 But those are agreements that were made that he’s not going to do that.
    1:12:56 And he does it over and over.
    1:12:57 He violates the Treaty of Versailles.
    1:13:02 He violates every single treaty, but he still isn’t doing the meeting.
    1:13:09 So maybe can you go through it, the lead-up to the war, 1939, September 1st?
    1:13:10 What are the different agreements?
    1:13:13 What is the signaling he’s doing?
    1:13:18 What is he doing secretly in terms of building up the military force?
    1:13:18 Yes.
    1:13:26 So he, you know, part of the Treaty of Versailles, you’re not, you know, you’re allowed a very, very limited armed forces.
    1:13:28 There’s restrictions on naval expansion.
    1:13:31 There’s restrictions on the size of the army.
    1:13:34 There’s restrictions on the weapons you can use.
    1:13:38 There are, you’re not allowed an air force.
    1:13:41 But he starts doing this all clandestinely.
    1:13:51 You know, there are people in Krupp has got, for example, which is in the Ruhr, a sort of big armaments manufacturer.
    1:14:00 They are producing tanks and elsewhere and parts elsewhere in, say, the Netherlands, for example, and then shipping them back into Germany.
    1:14:05 They’re doing panzer training exercises, actually, in the Soviet Union at this time.
    1:14:06 There’s all sorts of things going on.
    1:14:13 The Luftwaffe is being announced to the world in 1935, but it’s obviously been in the process of developing long before that.
    1:14:17 The Messerschmitt 109, single-engine fighter plane, for example, is created in 1934.
    1:14:20 So they’re doing all these things against it.
    1:14:24 And the truth is, is he’s just constantly pushing.
    1:14:26 What can I get away with here?
    1:14:35 What will probably, you know, and of course, Britain, France, the rest of the world, the rest of the allies, you know, they’re all reeling from the Wall Street crash and the depression as well.
    1:14:38 So have they got the stomach for this?
    1:14:43 Not really, you know, and perhaps actually on reflection, the terms of Versailles Treaty are a bit harsh anyway.
    1:14:46 So, you know, maybe we don’t need to worry about it.
    1:14:47 And there’s just no political will.
    1:14:51 There’s no political will to kind of fight against what Germany’s doing.
    1:14:52 Then he gets away with it.
    1:15:08 So he suddenly starts realizing that actually he can push this quite a long way because no one’s going to stand up to him, which is why he makes a decision in 1936 to go back into the, you know, into the Rhineland, you know, which has been occupied by French, you know, allied troops.
    1:15:12 At that point, he just walks in, just goes, do your worst.
    1:15:15 And no one’s going to do anything because there isn’t the stomach to do anything.
    1:15:19 That was a big step in 1936, remilitarizing the Rhineland.
    1:15:27 I mean, that that’s a huge, huge step of like, oh, I don’t have to follow anybody’s rules and they’re going to do nothing.
    1:15:31 And he’s looking at his military and he’s and and he’s also looking at response.
    1:15:35 So one of the things they do is they, you know, it’s really very clever.
    1:15:41 So they get over the head of the Army of the Air, Army de l’Air, which is the French Air Force.
    1:15:48 And they invite him over and they have milk, who is the second command of the Luftwaffe, invites him over.
    1:15:50 So come and see what we’re what we’re up to.
    1:15:53 You know, we want to be you’re our European neighbors.
    1:15:54 We’re all friends together.
    1:15:54 This kind of stuff.
    1:15:55 Come and see what we’ve got.
    1:15:58 And he takes him to this airfield.
    1:16:02 There’s a row of Messerschmitt 109s all lined up, like sort of 50 of them.
    1:16:06 And the head of the Army of the Air sort of looks at him and goes, correct, that’s impressive.
    1:16:09 And milk goes, well, let me go and take you to another airfield.
    1:16:15 And they go off the sort of the back route out of the airfield and a long circuitous route in the Mercedes.
    1:16:19 Meanwhile, all the Messerschmitts take off from that airfield, going to land on the next airfield.
    1:16:20 Here’s another.
    1:16:21 And they’re all the same aircraft.
    1:16:26 And the commander in chief of the Army of the Air goes back to France and goes, we’re never going to be able to beat Germany.
    1:16:30 So you would earlier you were you were alluding to this earlier on.
    1:16:41 You know, how much is this sort of this this this justice chutzpah of this ability to kind of portray the mechanized moloch?
    1:16:44 Yeah, it absolutely cows the enemy.
    1:16:56 So they’re increasing the effectiveness of their armed forces purely by propaganda and by by mind games and by talking the talk.
    1:17:03 And, you know, you look at we might all think these military parades that the Nazis have look rather silly by today’s standards.
    1:17:05 But you look what that looks like.
    1:17:11 If you’re the rest of the world, you’re in Britain and you’re still reeling from the depression and you see the triumph of the will.
    1:17:22 You see some of that footage and you see these automatons in their steel helmets and you see the swastikas and you see hundreds of thousands of people all lined up and see Keiling and all the rest of it.
    1:17:24 You’re going to think again before you go to war with people like that.
    1:17:30 It’s also hard to put yourself in the in the mind of those leaders.
    1:17:44 Now, now that we have nuclear weapons, so nuclear weapons have created this kind of cloak of a kind of safety from mutually shared destruction.
    1:17:56 That you think surely you will not do, you know, a million or two million soldier army invading another land, right?
    1:17:59 Just full on gigantic hot war.
    1:18:03 But at that time, that’s the real possibility.
    1:18:05 You remember World War I.
    1:18:06 You remember all of that.
    1:18:12 So, you know, okay, there’s a mad guy with a mustache.
    1:18:20 He’s making statements that this land belongs to Germany anyway because it’s mostly German populated.
    1:18:25 So, and like you said, Treaty of Versailles wasn’t really fair.
    1:18:28 And you can start justifying all kinds of things to yourself.
    1:18:32 And maybe they got a point about the Danzig Corridor, you know, the Armenian Germans, German speaking people there.
    1:18:37 And, you know, it’s disconnected from East Prussia, which is this thing, you know, I can, I sort of get it.
    1:18:38 You know, maybe they’ve got a point.
    1:18:42 You know, and is Poland really a kind of thriving democracy anyway?
    1:18:42 Not really.
    1:18:45 By 1930, late 1930s, it’s not.
    1:18:48 It’s, to all intents and purposes, a dictatorship in Poland at that time.
    1:18:53 I mean, it’s not right that you just go and take someone else’s country.
    1:18:55 Of course, you can’t do that.
    1:19:01 But you can see why in Germany people are thinking they’ve got a point.
    1:19:06 You can also see why in France and Britain they’re thinking, well, you know, do we really care about the Poles?
    1:19:10 I mean, you know, is it worth going to war over?
    1:19:13 But there’s kind of bigger things at play by this point.
    1:19:14 That’s the point.
    1:19:22 Yeah, but before we get to Poland, there is this meeting, September 1938.
    1:19:26 So, Chamberlain made three trips to meet with Hitler.
    1:19:26 Yeah.
    1:19:29 Which culminated in the Munich Conference.
    1:19:31 Yeah, on the 30th of September, yeah.
    1:19:36 Where it was Chamberlain, Hitler, Mussolini, and Delegere, Prime Minister of France.
    1:19:43 They met to discuss, essentially, Czechoslovakia without any of the government officials of Czechoslovakia participating.
    1:19:50 And Hitler promised to make no more territorial conquests and Chamberlain believed him.
    1:19:54 He chose to believe him, I think is the point.
    1:19:55 So, it’s very interesting.
    1:19:57 So, Chamberlain gets a very bad press.
    1:20:07 Well, no, I’m not, no, it’s not really, oh, it’s, it’s, it’s, I just think there’s too much retrospective view on this.
    1:20:21 And that’s fine, because we, the whole point of history is you can look back and you can judge decisions that were made at a certain point through the prism of what subsequently happened, which, of course, the people that are making the decisions at the time can’t.
    1:20:23 Because they’re in that particular moment.
    1:20:32 So, I don’t think Chamberlain did trust Hitler, but he wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt.
    1:20:35 Britain was not obliged to Czechoslovakia at all.
    1:20:36 France was.
    1:20:38 France had signed a treaty with Czechoslovakia in 1924.
    1:20:41 But, but, but, but Britain had not.
    1:20:43 So, there was no obligation at all for Britain to do this.
    1:20:52 The only reason why Britain would go to war over Czechoslovakia is because of the threat of Nazism and what the ramifications of not going to war with him.
    1:20:54 But the problem is, is that Chamberlain is interesting.
    1:20:57 Because in 1935, he was, he was Chancellor of his Czechoslovakia.
    1:21:00 And when they started to sort of think, okay, we really do need to rearm.
    1:21:09 He was very much in favor of, of substantially expanding and rehabilitating the Navy.
    1:21:12 So, updating existing battleships and so on.
    1:21:15 And also developing the Air Force.
    1:21:20 There’s not really much argument for having a large army.
    1:21:22 Because if you have a large army, you’ve got to maintain it.
    1:21:23 Britain is a small place.
    1:21:24 Where do you put them?
    1:21:25 You’ve also got to transport them.
    1:21:26 That’s complicated.
    1:21:28 You’ve got to train them.
    1:21:29 You’ve got to put them in barracks.
    1:21:30 You’ve got to feed them all this kind of stuff.
    1:21:32 There’s a kind of sort of impracticality about having a large army.
    1:21:34 Whereas navies are great.
    1:21:37 Because you can keep them at sea and they can be, you know, on the water.
    1:21:39 Air Force is slightly different.
    1:21:42 Air power is viewed in very much the same way that naval power is viewed.
    1:21:45 That this is, we’re an island nation.
    1:21:47 We have a global, global assets.
    1:21:50 And air power gives us the flexibility that an army doesn’t.
    1:21:57 So, he is all for backing the expansion of the army, of the Air Force and the Navy in 1930.
    1:21:59 Then he subsequently becomes prime minister and sticks to his guns on that.
    1:22:06 It is he that enables the Air Force and the Air Ministry to develop the first fully coordinated
    1:22:08 air defence system anywhere in the world.
    1:22:13 There is not an air defence system in Poland, nor Norway, nor Denmark, nor the Netherlands,
    1:22:14 nor Belgium, nor France.
    1:22:15 There is in Britain.
    1:22:16 Britain is the only one.
    1:22:21 And frankly, it pays off big time in the summer of 1940.
    1:22:23 So, you have to give him credit for that.
    1:22:29 Britain, interestingly, is also the world’s leading armaments exporter in the 1930s.
    1:22:34 Which is amazing, really, when you think everyone complains about the fact that we weren’t rearming
    1:22:34 enough.
    1:22:35 Actually, we were.
    1:22:39 When we had all the infrastructure there and we were expanding that infrastructure dramatically.
    1:22:41 I say we, I’m only saying that because I’m British.
    1:22:44 So, they were doing that.
    1:22:48 But in 1938, Britain wasn’t ready for war.
    1:22:51 Now, you can argue that Germany wasn’t ready for war either.
    1:22:59 But Chamberlain was prime minister in a democracy, a parliamentary democracy, when 92% of the population
    1:23:01 were against going to war in 1938.
    1:23:09 There is not a single democratic leader in the world that would go against the wishes of 92%
    1:23:10 of the population.
    1:23:15 Now, you could say, well, he should have just argued it better and presented his case better
    1:23:16 and all the rest of it.
    1:23:20 But at that point, there was no legal obligation to go to the defense of Czechoslovakia.
    1:23:26 You know, Czechoslovakia was another of these new nations that had been created out of 1919
    1:23:27 and the Versailles Treaty.
    1:23:32 You know, who was to say, you know, we in Britain are able to judge the rights and wrongs of that.
    1:23:39 You know, how fantastic it would be to go to war with a nation a long way away for people
    1:23:41 whom we know very little, et cetera, et cetera.
    1:23:42 I’m paraphrasing his quote.
    1:23:45 But I’m not saying it was the right decision.
    1:23:53 I’m just saying I can see why in September 1938, he is prepared to give him the chance.
    1:23:54 Now, I do think he was a bit naive.
    1:23:58 And what he also does is this really interesting thing.
    1:24:05 He goes over to Hitler’s flat, completely ambushes him, goes to his flat on the afternoon of 30th
    1:24:10 of September and says to Hitler, look, I’ve drawn up this agreement here.
    1:24:14 And this is to continue the naval agreement that we’ve already made.
    1:24:19 And by signing this, you are saying that Germany and Britain should never go to war with one another.
    1:24:23 And he goes, yeah, whatever, you know, signs it.
    1:24:30 Chamberlain comes back, lands at Henn and waves his little piece of paper, you know, and piece in our time
    1:24:32 and all the rest of it, which obviously comes back to bite him in a very big way.
    1:24:41 But it’s interesting that when Hitler then subsequently goes and moves in, you know, that France and Britain decide
    1:24:48 in rather the same way that there’s been discussion about deciding that large portions of Ukraine
    1:24:54 should just be handed back to, handed over to Russia without consulting Ukraine a few weeks ago.
    1:25:02 It is incredible, I think, that France and Britain and Italy with Germany
    1:25:06 deciding that, yes, it’s fine for Germany to go in and take the Sudetenland, you know,
    1:25:08 without really consulting the Czechs.
    1:25:10 It’s a sort of similar kind of scenario, really.
    1:25:12 And it’s equally wrong.
    1:25:19 But when Germany does then go and take over the whole of Czechoslovakia in March 1939,
    1:25:21 that is, that’s the bottom line.
    1:25:25 That is, that’s the point where Chamberlain goes, okay, I’ve given him the benefit of the doubt.
    1:25:26 No more benefits of the doubt.
    1:25:27 That’s it.
    1:25:30 That is, he’s crossed the line.
    1:25:32 And so you reinforce your agreement with Poland.
    1:25:33 You do a formal agreement.
    1:25:36 You go, okay, we will uphold your sovereignty.
    1:25:39 You know, if you are invaded, we will go to war with you.
    1:25:48 You know, and that is, that is a ratcheting up of diplomacy and politics in a very, very big way.
    1:25:59 And it is that decision to make a treaty with the Poles is not heeded by Hitler, but it’s heeded by literally every one of his commanders.
    1:26:14 And it’s also heeded by Goering, who is his number two and who is obviously the commander in chief of the, of, of the Luftwaffe and is president of Prussia and, you know, and all the rest of it.
    1:26:19 And, you know, he’s the second most senior Nazi and, you know, he’s going, this is a catastrophe.
    1:26:24 This is the last thing we want to be doing is going to war against Britain and indeed France.
    1:26:41 The Munich conference is a pretty interesting moment, I would say in all of human history, because you got the leaders of these bigger than life nations and the most dramatic brewing conflict in human history.
    1:26:44 Yeah, Chamberlain, Hitler, Mussolini, Dodger.
    1:26:49 It’s interesting when these bigger than life leaders are in a room together.
    1:26:55 Is there something that you know about, about their interactions?
    1:27:01 Yeah, I think there’s, I think one of the things that’s interesting is, is that Hitler’s got home advantage because it’s on his turf.
    1:27:07 And, you know, to start off with the first meeting is at the Berghof, his beloved place in the Ober Salzburg overlooking Berkusgaden in the Alps.
    1:27:15 So he’s pretty confident because this is my manor, this is my turf, you know, I’m not going to be bossed around by these guys.
    1:27:21 But Chamberlain, for example, is going there thinking, I’ve been around the blocks, no one can teach me anything.
    1:27:27 I’ve been a politician for ages, you know, I’m not going to be kind of capped out by this, this sort of, you know, Austrian upstart.
    1:27:34 So they’re both coming at it with a kind of sort of slight kind of superiority kind of complex.
    1:27:52 Interestingly, when you get to the actual meetings of the Bernabeu in Munich, a couple of weeks later, Chamberlain is cheered by the crowds when his car comes in, when he goes to his hotel, when he’s moving from his hotel to the Bernabeu.
    1:27:56 You know, there are cars cheering him, you know, waving uni jacks, all this kind of stuff.
    1:27:59 Hitler does not like that at all.
    1:28:00 Not at all.
    1:28:01 Puts him on the back foot.
    1:28:06 And that’s because the German people don’t want war.
    1:28:10 In the same way that the British people don’t want war, nor do the German people.
    1:28:18 The difference is that Hitler is a dictator and an autocrat and has the devotion of the people.
    1:28:21 So he can do what he wants in a way that Chamberlain can’t.
    1:28:28 Chamberlain’s hands are tied because he is an elected prime minister, an elected leader, political leader, and he’s not head of state.
    1:28:36 So there is no question that it is Hitler and Chamberlain that are the top dogs in this particular discussion.
    1:28:38 You know, Deladio takes a back seat.
    1:28:41 Even Mussolini, although he’s there, he doesn’t want war either.
    1:28:45 You know, he wants to be left alone to do his own thing without anyone getting in the way.
    1:28:49 But he doesn’t want, he doesn’t want to sort of, it’s not in his interest to have a European war.
    1:28:50 So he’s trying to avoid it.
    1:28:56 So it is really, you see that the kind of alpha males in the room are Chamberlain and Hitler.
    1:29:07 And it’s really interesting because Hitler’s got this sort of slightly garrulous voice and very kind of pale blue eyes and such distinct features, quite a long nose.
    1:29:12 You know, he always says this is why he has the moustaches to kind of, you know, disguise the big nose.
    1:29:17 You know, so I was saying to you earlier on before we started recording, he does have a sense of humor.
    1:29:20 It’s not maybe not one that you and I would kind of tap into, but he does have one.
    1:29:33 Whereas Chamberlain is just sort of, you know, he sounds like a sort of, you know, a bit like an old man, you know, he’s sort of silver haired and he looks like you’re sort of archetypal kind of British gentleman with his rolled up umbrella and his, you know, and his Homburg hat and all the rest of it.
    1:29:36 So they’re both sort of caricatures in a funny sort of way.
    1:29:51 And yet the consequence of these discussions, you know, these, these great events happening, you know, you are, you’re absolutely going, even which way the Munich crisis comes out, you’re taking a step closer to war.
    1:29:55 It’s just whether the war is going to happen kind of next week or whether it’s going to happen a year hence.
    1:30:00 But it’s, you know, the Munich crisis obviously doesn’t stem the inevitability of war at all.
    1:30:01 It just heightens it.
    1:30:11 Do you think there are words that Chamberlain should have said, could have said that put more pressure on Hitler, intimidate Hitler more?
    1:30:14 Yeah, it’s a really tricky one.
    1:30:21 It’s such a difficult one because you’re always looking at it through, you know, the enemy has a vote and you don’t know what,
    1:30:23 that vote is going to be and you don’t know what it’s going to look like.
    1:30:35 There’s no question that the Europe, the rest of Europe is, is, is cowed by the kind of impression of military might that the Germans have put out.
    1:30:38 They certainly fear they are stronger than they actually are.
    1:30:45 And then on the other hand, they’re also going, yeah, but, you know, Germany doesn’t have natural resources, doesn’t have access to the world’s oceans.
    1:30:49 You know, it, it, it’s kind of, you know, it shouldn’t be able to win a war.
    1:31:00 And so, so they’re kind of contradicting themselves at the same time, you know, so one minute they’re sort of going, oh God, you don’t want to take on all those Nazis and all those swastikas and those automaton stormtroopers.
    1:31:08 But on the other hand, they’re then saying, but actually Germany doesn’t have much and it’s kind of, you know, in its basket, you know, it’s got, it’s got actually quite a lot of weaknesses and we should be able to kind of prevail, blah, blah, blah.
    1:31:11 We’ll just impose an economic blockade and then it’ll be stuffed.
    1:31:16 And Britain is not ready to fight a war in, in 1948, but nor is Hitler, you know, nor is Germany.
    1:31:21 So, you know, one is sort of striking out the other, but it’s very easy to say that in hindsight.
    1:31:36 But at the time, you know, with people kind of digging trenches in Hyde Park in the center of London and barrage balloons going up over London and, you know, children being evacuated from the cities and 92% of the population not wanting to go to war, you can see why he takes the course he does.
    1:31:38 I suppose that’s, that’s what I’m saying.
    1:31:42 I’m not saying it’s necessarily the right decision, but I, I, I think it’s an understandable decision.
    1:32:02 But what about even just in the human level, if I go into a room with a British gentleman versus going to a room with Trump, it feels like it’s so much easier to read and manipulate the British gentleman because Trump is like Trump-like characters.
    1:32:03 It seems like Hitler is similar.
    1:32:05 Churchill is similar.
    1:32:07 It’s like this guy can do anything.
    1:32:10 There’s something terrifying about the unpredictability.
    1:32:11 Yeah.
    1:32:14 It feels like there’s something very predictable about Chamberlain.
    1:32:16 Yes, I think that’s true.
    1:32:20 But also one has to take a step back and think about what Britain represents.
    1:32:23 So therefore what Chamberlain represents in 1938.
    1:32:27 Britain has the largest empire the world has ever known.
    1:32:27 Yeah.
    1:32:28 In 1938.
    1:32:29 We shouldn’t forget that.
    1:32:36 You know, the world of the world is pink, as the saying goes, you know, and that saying comes from the kind of atlas of the world where all British territories are kind of colored pink.
    1:32:37 Yeah.
    1:32:41 And on top of that, it has lots of extra imperial territories as well.
    1:32:47 So, you know, if you look at this, there’s this incredible map of global shipping in 1937.
    1:32:50 And there’s these little ant lines of ships going out.
    1:32:55 And one of the strongest ant lines is going down to Argentina and South America from Britain.
    1:32:59 So, down past West Africa and down the Southern Atlantic and there it is.
    1:33:02 And that’s because Britain owns most of Argentina.
    1:33:05 It owns huge, great farming estates and ranches.
    1:33:07 It owns the railway system.
    1:33:08 It owns many of the port facilities.
    1:33:10 So, you don’t even need an empire.
    1:33:16 You just need the, you know, you need the facilities that overseas trade and possessions can give you.
    1:33:31 And Britain not only has the largest navy, it also has the largest merchant navy, has 33% of the world’s merchant shipping and access to a further 50%, you know, Greek, Norwegian, Canadian shipping that it can access.
    1:33:39 So, if you’ve got access to more than, in excess of 80% of the world’s shipping, that puts you in an incredibly strong position.
    1:33:42 And actually, all sorts of other things have been going on.
    1:33:54 While they might not have been creating a huge army or producing enough spitfires that they might want to up until this point, what they have also been doing is stockpiling bauxite and copper and tungsten and huge reserves.
    1:34:02 And because Britain has this huge global reach, because it has its empire and its extra imperial assets, it can strike bargains that no one else can strike.
    1:34:11 So, it can go into various countries around the world and can go, okay, I want you to guarantee me for the next five years, every bit of your rubber supply.
    1:34:15 I will pay over the asking price to secure that.
    1:34:18 And it’s doing that in the 1930s.
    1:34:21 So, when war comes, it’s got everything it possibly needs.
    1:34:27 Now, you always need more, because it’s suddenly turning into a kind of, you know, a proper global, long, drawn-out war.
    1:34:30 But that is a huge advantage.
    1:34:37 So, it is with that mindset that Chamberlain is going into those talks and thinking, okay, well, I’m not going to get a war over the Czechoslovakian.
    1:34:38 Who cares about them?
    1:34:43 But I am going to show Hitler that I mean business.
    1:34:46 Hitler’s going, who’s this stuffy guy with his white hair?
    1:34:47 I don’t give a toss about him.
    1:34:50 You know, and he’s coming at it from a completely different perspective.
    1:35:03 And I think one of the things that’s so interesting from a dramatic point of view and from a historian’s point of view or even a novelist’s point of view in the case of Robert Harris writing his book about these negotiations, which I don’t know if you’ve read it, but it’s really, it’s terrifically good.
    1:35:13 It’s the fact that you’ve got two men, two alpha males, who are going to those negotiations from totally different perspectives and vantage points.
    1:35:21 And I think it’s very easy for people today to forget how elevated Britain was in the late 1930s.
    1:35:25 You know, the gold standard was tied to the pound, not the dollar.
    1:35:32 And so Britain was the number one nation in the world at that time, and it just was.
    1:35:38 And it’s so diminished by comparison today that it’s hard to imagine it.
    1:35:52 And I think one of the interesting things about the historiography, about the narrative of how we tell World War II, is that so much of it has been dictated by the shift in power that took place subsequent to 1945.
    1:36:01 And when people were starting to write these sort of major narratives in the 1970s and 80s and into the 1990s, is through a prism of a very, very different world.
    1:36:11 And so one of the reasons why you have this narrative that, you know, Britain was a bit rubbish and hanging on the shirt tails of the Americans and, you know, all the blood was spelt in Eastern Front.
    1:36:16 And, you know, Germany had the best army in the world and was only defeated because Hitler was mad and blah, blah, blah.
    1:36:31 You know, that kind of sort of traditional narrative, it’s that narrative emerges through the prism of what was going on in the 1970s and what was going on in the 1980s and the changing world rather than looking at it through the prism of the late 1930s or early 1940s.
    1:36:33 So there is this moment of decision.
    1:36:37 When do you think, what lesson do you take from that?
    1:36:53 When is the right time for appeasement, to negotiate, for diplomacy, and when is the right time for military strength, offensive, attacking, for military conflict?
    1:36:56 Where’s that line?
    1:37:00 Well, I kind of think it probably was when it was.
    1:37:03 I mean, Poland.
    1:37:04 Yeah.
    1:37:10 Honestly, I’m not sure it would have been the right decision to go to war in 1938.
    1:37:19 I just, I think it would, I can’t predict because you can’t second guess how things are going to play out because you just don’t know.
    1:37:23 But I’m not sure that Chamberlain made the wrong decision.
    1:37:25 I’m not saying he made the right decision.
    1:37:28 I’m just like, I’m not, I’m being a bit wishy-washy about this.
    1:37:31 You could have threatened it more.
    1:37:34 Imagine Churchill in those same meetings.
    1:37:36 Yeah, but Churchill also appeases.
    1:37:38 I mean, he appeases Stalin all the time.
    1:37:43 I mean, you know, so the idea that Churchill’s this big, strong man and never appeases and, you know, he’s gung-ho for war.
    1:37:46 Churchill’s out of the government at that time.
    1:37:48 He recognizes you can’t trust Hitler.
    1:37:50 He recognizes that Nazism is bad.
    1:37:59 But he, because he’s out of the government, he doesn’t have a window on exactly where Britain is at that particular time in a way that Chamberlain does.
    1:38:13 You know, so I suppose what I’m saying is Chamberlain is better placed to make those decisions than Churchill is, which again doesn’t mean that Chamberlain is right and Churchill is wrong.
    1:38:27 It’s just, that’s a massive pump to go to war in 1938 when you still don’t have, you know, you’ve got a handful of Spitfires, you’ve got a handful of Hurricanes, you haven’t got enough, you know, your air defense system isn’t properly sorted at this point.
    1:38:30 Your Navy is strong.
    1:38:32 But, you know, what’s that going to look like?
    1:38:39 I mean, if you do go to war, because there’s not going to be armies sweeping into Germany.
    1:38:44 It’s just, it’s going to be accelerated industrialization for a year.
    1:38:50 So, you know, even if you go to war in 1938 over Czechoslovakia, Czechoslovakia will not be saved.
    1:38:54 You know, France and Britain will not be going and invading Germany.
    1:38:56 You know, that is absolutely not going to happen.
    1:38:58 So, sort of, what’s the point?
    1:39:07 I mean, you know, if you’re not going to do that, why don’t you accelerate your rearmament thereafter, get your ducks in a row, and then you can consider it.
    1:39:10 I mean, after all, you know, even in September 1939, they don’t really do anything.
    1:39:17 I mean, we talked about the kind of, the SAR offensive, which isn’t really an offensive at all.
    1:39:20 It’s firing one round of machine gun and scuttling back again.
    1:39:23 But, I mean, they don’t even do that then.
    1:39:25 They’re still buying time in 1939.
    1:39:30 And, you know, Britain is only just about ready to take on the onslaught of the Luftwaffe in the summer of 1940.
    1:39:33 Well, nobody is ready for war.
    1:39:37 No, and you always want more than you’ve got at any time, even when you’re winning.
    1:39:40 But, like, really not ready.
    1:39:47 Even, like you mentioned with Barbarossa, the Nazi Germany is really not ready.
    1:39:47 Not ready.
    1:39:50 Nobody’s really, except France.
    1:39:51 I swear.
    1:39:52 France?
    1:39:53 Only France have radios.
    1:39:54 Fine.
    1:39:55 But, come on.
    1:39:56 Come on.
    1:40:01 When, when, when, when Nazi Germany invades Poland, I mean.
    1:40:02 Yeah, it’s terrible.
    1:40:03 It’s terrible.
    1:40:16 Because I’m absolutely, I also do think that had France gone in, in some force, with some British troops as well, had they gone in, what would have happened is, is that would have, that easily could have brought down Hitler.
    1:40:21 Because most of his commanders are, his senior commanders are just thinking, what the hell is going on?
    1:40:22 This is a catastrophe.
    1:40:24 I mean, to a man.
    1:40:26 I mean, even Göring is thinking, this is a terrible idea.
    1:40:29 They are absolutely not convinced.
    1:40:36 And when Hitler does his big talk to his, his, he asks all his senior commanders to come to the Berghof to brief them about the invasion of Poland.
    1:40:42 It’s just after the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact of the 22nd of August.
    1:40:46 He calls them all to Berghof and says, come in, you know, come in mufti, come in civilian suits.
    1:40:49 They all turn up and he gives them this kind of huge, great speech.
    1:40:51 And says, this is the moment.
    1:40:52 This is, this is the time.
    1:40:53 This is what we’re going to do.
    1:40:54 And they’re all going, what?
    1:40:56 You’re kidding me.
    1:40:59 What, we’re going to Poland in, you know, on the 26th of August.
    1:40:59 That’s the plan.
    1:41:00 Like, two days time.
    1:41:02 You know, where’s the plan?
    1:41:12 Where’s the, you know, the whole point is that, you know, they’re emerging and growing militarily, but they were supposed to have all these exercises where they, you know, coordinating ground forces.
    1:41:16 You know, the, you know, the panzer spearhead with operations in the air with the Luftwaffe.
    1:41:18 None of that happens.
    1:41:19 So Poland becomes the proving ground.
    1:41:24 And actually they discover that there’s lots of things that don’t work and lots of things that are wrong.
    1:41:32 But, but, but, you know, it’s flying in the face of all convention, military convention that, that they, you know, he does this without any kind of warning.
    1:41:50 And even by the 1st of September, where there’s been this kind of sort of five-day delay, um, at those last minute negotiations, the last minute negotiations are thrust upon Hitler by people like Goering and by Mussolini and, and the Italians going, God, oh my God, don’t do this.
    1:41:50 Don’t do this.
    1:41:52 You know, there’s got to be a solution.
    1:41:54 Hitler’s absolutely jumping at the bit.
    1:42:01 So in that case, from a dark militaristic perspective, his bet paid off.
    1:42:07 Well, except that it ended in ruins in May, 1945 with the total collapse of Germany.
    1:42:11 So you could say the worst decision he ever made was going into Poland in September, 1939.
    1:42:12 It depends on the way you look at it.
    1:42:14 But I mean, yes, you know, it’s successful.
    1:42:17 And that the, you know, Poland’s overrun in 18 days.
    1:42:20 There’s, there’s so many counterfactuals here.
    1:42:34 But I mean, if you would say to Hitler on the 30th of April, you know, as he’s sort of taking out the pistol from his holster on his sofa in the, in the Fuhrer bunk and going, you know, so out of 1st of September, 1939, still backing yourself on that one.
    1:42:36 I mean, he might, might have a different view.
    1:42:39 The guy’s insane and full of blunder.
    1:42:41 So he probably would have said, yeah, do it all over again.
    1:42:42 Yeah, I’m sure he would have done that as well.
    1:42:44 Conquest.
    1:42:46 Poland was not a mistake.
    1:42:48 Soviet Union was not a mistake.
    1:42:48 No.
    1:42:49 It’s just some of the tactics.
    1:42:51 Other people I was let down by, by people not being strong enough.
    1:42:53 Yeah, the Prussian generals are all.
    1:42:54 Yeah, yeah, of course.
    1:42:55 That’s exactly what he’d say.
    1:42:57 It wasn’t my fault.
    1:43:02 He might have quietly done some different decisions about Barbarossa.
    1:43:05 Maybe the timing would be different.
    1:43:08 Maybe that all out central for us rather than kind of splitting it into three.
    1:43:16 But he was very sure, it seems like, maybe you can correct me, that Britain and France would still carry on with appeasement,
    1:43:18 even after he invaded Poland.
    1:43:19 Absolutely.
    1:43:21 He was completely convinced by it.
    1:43:26 There was clearly a kind of sort of 10 to 15% level of doubt.
    1:43:27 But what the heck?
    1:43:28 I’m going to do it anyway.
    1:43:36 He was just, he ratcheted himself up into such a laver of kind of, this is the moment.
    1:43:37 I have to do it now.
    1:43:38 This is fate.
    1:43:38 I’m 50.
    1:43:42 And, and, you know, I could be taken out by an assassin’s bullet.
    1:43:44 I’ve got this important life work that I’ve got to do.
    1:43:45 We’ve got to get on with it now.
    1:43:47 There could be no more delay.
    1:43:48 This is my mission.
    1:43:50 You know, this is our mission of the German people.
    1:43:54 And either the German people have got the will and the, and the spirit to be able to pull
    1:43:57 it off or, you know, I was wrong.
    1:44:00 And, and therefore, you know, we don’t deserve to be a thousand year, right?
    1:44:02 We don’t deserve to be the master race.
    1:44:07 Black or white, us or them, either or, it’s same all the time.
    1:44:12 So can you tell the story of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact in 1939?
    1:44:18 So they make an agreement, Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, and that leads us, just like
    1:44:22 you were mentioning, in a matter of days, how compact everything is.
    1:44:24 It’s just really, really fascinating.
    1:44:27 It’s a beautiful summer in Europe, summer of 1939.
    1:44:31 You know, it’s one of these sort of glorious summers that sort of never rains.
    1:44:35 It’s just sunshine, sunny day after sunny day.
    1:44:40 It’s kind of, you know, it’s like that sort of golden summer of 1914 as well, you know,
    1:44:45 where sky always seems to be blue, fluffy white clouds, everyone’s sort of, you know,
    1:44:49 but this sort of, the storm clouds of war, to use that cliche, are kind of brewing.
    1:44:56 The Russians have reached out to Britain and France and said, come on, come on over, let’s
    1:44:58 negotiate, you know, let’s see what we can do.
    1:45:02 And there is just no stomach for that at all.
    1:45:10 I mean, if ever there is a, I think, a mistake, that’s Britain and France should have been a
    1:45:14 bit more into real politics than they were.
    1:45:21 It’s such an opportunity to ensure that, to snooker the Third Reich, and they don’t take
    1:45:28 it, because, you know, in many ways, they see the westward spread of communism in exactly
    1:45:32 the same way that the Nazis see the threat of the westward spread of communism as something
    1:45:37 that’s every bit as repellent as Nazism, and they don’t want to be getting into bed with
    1:45:38 these guys.
    1:45:46 And, of course, they kind of have to kind of change tack on that one in summer of 1941
    1:45:48 in, you know, very quick order.
    1:45:51 And that’s the whole point about Churchill appeasing Stalin.
    1:45:54 I mean, you know, it’s all very well people saying, well, you know, Churchill wouldn’t have
    1:45:56 appeased Hitler in the 1930s, but he does appease.
    1:45:57 He appeases all the time.
    1:46:01 And they miss that opportunity.
    1:46:07 And the French and British delegation is third-tier commanders, generals going over.
    1:46:10 It’s a, you know, it’s a shit show.
    1:46:15 I mean, yeah, excuse my French, but I mean, it’s just, it’s a nonsense that they’re not
    1:46:15 ready for it.
    1:46:16 They’re not prepared.
    1:46:21 The British guy, Admiral Drax, doesn’t have any authority.
    1:46:23 The whole thing’s a complete joke.
    1:46:25 It’s never going to get anywhere.
    1:46:27 You tell the story of this quite beautifully, actually.
    1:46:30 Uh, again, it’s such a human story.
    1:46:33 I mean, the, it seems like the Stalin and Soviet.
    1:46:35 They’ve already made up their mind.
    1:46:37 But I don’t think they have.
    1:46:37 I think what they.
    1:46:38 Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.
    1:46:42 I mean, you described quite well that they value in-person meeting.
    1:46:43 Yes.
    1:46:46 So like Chamberlain should have just gone to Moscow.
    1:46:47 Yeah, get on a plane.
    1:46:57 Like it, it’s such a, uh, maybe it’s a simplistic notion, but that could have changed the trajectory
    1:46:58 of human history right there.
    1:46:59 I really think it could have done.
    1:47:04 I think that was, I think that’s, I think that’s much more grievous mistake than, than, than Munich.
    1:47:08 Why are leaders so hesitant to meet?
    1:47:14 I, I, I’m told now by a bunch of diplomats that no, no, no, no, there’s a process.
    1:47:19 You know, at first you have to have these diplomats meet and they have to draft a bunch of stuff.
    1:47:25 And I sometimes have this simplistic notion, like, why not, why not meet?
    1:47:26 Why not meet?
    1:47:29 Like, I think there is a human element there.
    1:47:35 Um, of course, especially when there’s this force that is Hitler.
    1:47:36 Well, yes.
    1:47:43 And because we humans, we like to interact and, and you like to see people in three dimensions.
    1:47:49 And, you know, I’m sure it’s why you always quite rightly insist on doing your podcast face
    1:47:53 to face because you want to get the cut of someone’s jib and you want to be able to see them and you
    1:47:58 want to see the intonation in the expression and the whites of their eyes and all that kind
    1:47:58 of stuff.
    1:48:02 And that just doesn’t make a difference, of course, because, you know, we’re fundamentally
    1:48:07 animals and we kind of, we, we want to be sizing people up and it’s much easier to do that when
    1:48:13 you’re a few feet away from each other than it is on a video screen or through the prism
    1:48:13 of someone else.
    1:48:14 Yeah.
    1:48:18 But there’s also just, you see the, the humanity in, in others.
    1:48:19 It’s so much easier.
    1:48:21 You see this in social media.
    1:48:25 It’s so much easier to talk shit about others when you’re not with them.
    1:48:26 Yes.
    1:48:29 And like military conflict is the extreme version of that.
    1:48:30 Yeah.
    1:48:35 You can construct these narratives that they’re not human, that they’re evil, that they’re,
    1:48:41 you can construct a communist ideology, all of these, you can project onto them the worst
    1:48:46 possible version of what, of a human.
    1:48:49 But when you meet them, you’re like, oh, they are just a person.
    1:48:50 They’re just a person.
    1:48:53 Well, it’s the world’s great tragedy that, that, that it’s only a few people that want to
    1:48:57 go to war and the vast majority want to live happily, contented lives, getting on with their
    1:48:57 neighbors.
    1:48:59 I mean, it has been ever thus.
    1:49:04 It’s just, it is those few that kind of ruin it for everybody else.
    1:49:10 But, but, but anyway, to go back to Leningrad, back in August, 1939, they go half cock.
    1:49:14 They’re disrespectful to Soviet Union as a result of that.
    1:49:16 It gets nowhere.
    1:49:22 Had they been able to put on a really, really firm offer there and then to the Soviet Union,
    1:49:26 Soviet Union would have, would have probably come in.
    1:49:30 I mean, the big thing is, is that the Soviet Union said, this is a big stumbling block.
    1:49:36 The Soviet Union said, yeah, but we want to be able to march through Poland if we get threatened
    1:49:40 by Germany, but if the British and the French just smell a massive rat there, they’re basically
    1:49:46 saying, you know, if they agree to that, what they’re, what they fear is that Soviet Union
    1:49:50 will just march into Poland and go, yeah, but you said we could and take it, which they
    1:49:54 unquestionably would have done, but it would have stopped the world war properly.
    1:49:56 They’re willing to appease Hitler.
    1:49:58 They’re not willing to appease Stalin in that situation.
    1:50:00 Well, they’re not willing to appease anybody by that stage.
    1:50:01 That’s the point.
    1:50:03 Well, they appeased Hitler.
    1:50:08 They did, but there’s a bottom line, you know, which is, which is Poland, you know,
    1:50:09 so it’s changed.
    1:50:10 That’s the point.
    1:50:11 Right, right.
    1:50:15 But anyway, the bottom line is they don’t, you know, there is a, there is a, a reluctance
    1:50:19 on the part of French and British to negotiate with the Soviet Union because they’re communists,
    1:50:24 don’t like them, don’t trust them, worry about what they’re going to do with Poland and
    1:50:28 they’re going to be, you know, jumping out of the fire into the kind of water.
    1:50:30 And it doesn’t come off.
    1:50:36 And as a consequence of that, Soviet Union continued to pursue more hardly, you know,
    1:50:43 more, more vociferously the opportunities that the, that the Germans are offering, which
    1:50:51 is the split of Poland because Soviet Union wants that part of Poland back in its own sphere
    1:50:54 of influence and it doesn’t want to go to war just yet.
    1:50:58 And the agreement that they won’t attack each other, is that right?
    1:50:58 Yeah.
    1:51:01 Do you think Stalin actually believed that?
    1:51:04 No, he believed it in the same way that Hitler believed it, that it was a cynical kind of,
    1:51:07 you know, convenient bit of real politic for now.
    1:51:13 I mean, I think, I think Soviet Union was as determined to get rid of the Nazis as the Nazis
    1:51:14 were determined to get rid of the Soviet Union.
    1:51:20 I think whoever fired first was not, not decided at that point.
    1:51:23 But I do think that from the moment that Hitler takes power in 1933, a conflict between Soviet
    1:51:25 Nazi Germany is inevitable.
    1:51:25 Yeah.
    1:51:28 So either direction, you think it’s inevitable.
    1:51:28 Yeah.
    1:51:31 I think, I think there’s, yeah, there’s a huge amount of evidence for that.
    1:51:35 Stalin probably wanted it, what, like in 42, 43?
    1:51:35 Yeah.
    1:51:36 Something like that.
    1:51:37 Yeah.
    1:51:39 And, and, you know, they’re doing exercises and stuff and building out of it.
    1:51:42 He’s not ready yet because he knows he’s done the purges and he’s got to get his, his army,
    1:51:45 you know, he’s got to get his armed forces back into shape and all the rest of it.
    1:51:48 But, you know, so they have this incredibly cynical agreement.
    1:51:52 But at that point, you know, Hitler’s hands are untied.
    1:51:56 You know, he no longer has to worry about, about the threat from Soviet Union.
    1:52:00 He’s got carte blanche to go into Poland and he doesn’t believe that France and Britain are
    1:52:01 going to go to war over Poland.
    1:52:03 He’s wrong about that, obviously.
    1:52:06 But, but, but France and Britain, despite going to war with him, still do nothing.
    1:52:09 So, you know, he’s got a way of it.
    1:52:14 Who was Churchill and how did Churchill come to power at this moment?
    1:52:19 Well, Churchill is this absolutely towering figure in British politics, you know, who’s
    1:52:24 been, you know, his first minister in the kind of noughties of the 20th century and the
    1:52:26 first years of, of the 20th century.
    1:52:29 Um, first of the liberals, then of the conservatives.
    1:52:33 He’s a former chancellor, um, um, of the exchequer.
    1:52:41 Um, he’s a towering figure, but he’s been in the wilderness because he’s out of favor with
    1:52:43 the Stanley Baldwin government.
    1:52:49 Um, he’s out of favor with, with, with Chamberlain, but he is this towering figure and he has been
    1:52:53 very outspoken as a backbencher, which basically means, you know, you’re not a minister, you’re
    1:52:57 not in the cabinet, you’re just an ordinary member of parliament, but obviously you’re an
    1:53:00 ordinary member of parliament, but you’re also an ordinary member of parliament who has
    1:53:03 had ministries of state and who is this towering figure.
    1:53:06 So he’s listened to in a way that other backbenchers aren’t.
    1:53:09 Um, and he has been saying, you know, we need to stand up to the dictators.
    1:53:10 We need to do this.
    1:53:14 Um, we need to rearm more, more heavily, uh, and blah, blah, blah.
    1:53:20 So when war is declared, he’s brought back into the Admiralty, um, and charge of the Navy,
    1:53:21 which is Britain’s senior service.
    1:53:25 And, um, um, suddenly he’s there.
    1:53:29 And what happens is Britain doesn’t really do anything.
    1:53:33 It’s very difficult working with France because France is so politically fractured that they
    1:53:34 can’t make any decisions.
    1:53:37 When you can’t make any decisions, you’re just impotent.
    1:53:42 Um, and so Churchill first mentions going into Norway, mining the leads.
    1:53:45 So, um, the idea is that you’re making life very difficult for the Germans to get iron ore
    1:53:46 out of Sweden.
    1:53:50 Their main, their main source of iron ore is up in the Northern part of Sweden in the Arctic
    1:53:50 circle.
    1:53:56 It then goes on a railway through Northern tip of Norway and then gets shipped down the,
    1:54:00 um, West coast of Norway into Germany, into the Baltic.
    1:54:06 So, uh, Churchill suggests in September, 1939, why don’t we mine the leads, which are the leads
    1:54:12 are these passageways, um, out of the fjords and the, in the North into the, uh, into the North
    1:54:12 sea.
    1:54:17 Why don’t we mine those and stop the Germans from, from, from, um, um, taking this?
    1:54:19 Everyone goes, well, yeah, that’s quite a good idea, but they can’t decide.
    1:54:23 And French are nervous that if they do that, the Germans retaliate and bomb France and all
    1:54:24 this kind of stuff.
    1:54:30 So no decision is made until kind of April, 19, 1940, they go up to start mining the leads
    1:54:33 on exactly the same day that the Germans invade Denmark and Norway.
    1:54:36 And so they’re, they’re caught off guards.
    1:54:39 And at that moment, really, it’s seen as a failure of Chamberlain’s government.
    1:54:45 And there is a kind of, uh, a mounting realization that no matter how good he was or competent
    1:54:48 he was as a peacetime prime minister, he’s not a wartime prime minister.
    1:54:50 You know, he’s not served in the armed forces himself.
    1:54:52 He doesn’t really understand it.
    1:54:57 It needs a different set of hands and, um, his government falls on the 9th of May.
    1:54:59 It becomes inevitable that he’s going to have to resign.
    1:55:05 And the obvious person to take his place is Lord Halifax, who is in the house of Lords,
    1:55:06 but you can still be a prime minister.
    1:55:11 And, um, he is without question, the most respected politician in the country.
    1:55:15 He’s, um, um, former Viceroy of India.
    1:55:23 He’s seen as incredibly safe pair of hands, man of resolute sound judgment, et cetera, et
    1:55:23 cetera.
    1:55:26 Um, but he doesn’t want to take it.
    1:55:28 He feels physically ill at the prospect.
    1:55:29 Doesn’t want this responsibility.
    1:55:31 He’s also not really a military man.
    1:55:34 He’s got a slightly sort of withered hand, which has prevented him from doing military
    1:55:35 service.
    1:55:38 And he just blanches at this moment.
    1:55:43 And that really leaves only one other figure that could possibly take on this position.
    1:55:43 And that’s Churchill.
    1:55:51 So when Chamberlain resigns on the 9th of May and Halifax says, it’s, it’s not for me.
    1:55:54 Um, the only person who’s going to slip into that position is Churchill.
    1:55:57 And he becomes prime minister and he accepts it gladly.
    1:56:00 He feels like it is his mission in life.
    1:56:01 This is his moment.
    1:56:04 Come of the outcome of the man, but he comes with a huge amount of baggage.
    1:56:08 I mean, you know, he’s known as a man who drinks too much, who’s, whose judgment hasn’t
    1:56:08 always been great.
    1:56:12 You know, he was chancellor during the time of the general strike 1926.
    1:56:17 You know, he backed Edward the eighth over the, uh, monarchy crisis when the King wanted
    1:56:21 to marry Wallace Simpson, the divorcee, Catholic divorcee, et cetera, et cetera.
    1:56:23 So, you know, his judgment has been brought into question.
    1:56:27 You know, he is the man who was, he came up with the idea of the Gallipoli campaign.
    1:56:30 Which was, you know, an ignominious failure, blah, blah, blah.
    1:56:32 So there are issues over him.
    1:56:37 You know, he is seen as a hothead and a man who doesn’t have the kind of sound judgment of
    1:56:37 Halifax.
    1:56:40 So the jury is, is very much out.
    1:56:44 And I think it’s, again, it’s one of those things where you have to put yourself in.
    1:56:48 You have to look at this through the prism of what people were thinking in May, 1940.
    1:56:49 Yes.
    1:56:56 He, he was considered a towering politician, but he is seen also as a loose cannon and by
    1:57:00 no means the right person in this hour of darkness.
    1:57:06 And it is coincidental that the 10th of May, 1940, when he takes over as prime minister, becomes
    1:57:11 prime minister, not for an election, but by default of a new nationalist government.
    1:57:17 So no longer a conservative government, but a nationalist cross-party coalition government
    1:57:23 for the duration of the war, which includes, you know, members of, of the liberal party and
    1:57:31 also the labor party, as well as conservatives, that it is by no means certain that, that he’s
    1:57:32 going to be able to deliver the goods.
    1:57:38 And it is also coincidentally the same day that the Germans launched Case Yellow, Operation
    1:57:41 Yellow, the invasion of the low countries in France.
    1:57:47 So these are tumultuous events, to put it mildly.
    1:57:54 And it is also the case that, you know, only a couple of weeks before, Paul Reynaud has taken
    1:57:59 over as prime minister of yet another coalition government in France from, from Deladier.
    1:58:06 So political turmoil is very much the watchword at this time for the, for the Western democracies,
    1:58:11 just at the moment that the Germans are making their kind of, you know, their hammer strike
    1:58:11 into the West.
    1:58:19 This might be a good moment to bring up this idea that has been circulating recently brought
    1:58:26 up by Darrell Cooper, who hyperbolically stated that Churchill was the, quote, chief villain
    1:58:28 of the Second World War.
    1:58:34 To give a good faith interpretation of that, I believe he meant that Churchill forced Hitler
    1:58:38 to escalate the expansion of Nazi Germany beyond Poland into a global war.
    1:58:48 So Churchill is the one that turned this narrow war, Czechoslovakia, Austria, Poland, into a
    1:58:49 global one.
    1:58:53 Is that accurate?
    1:58:54 No, I don’t think it is.
    1:58:58 I mean, not least because the decisions over Poland were made by Chamberlain’s government,
    1:58:59 not when Churchill was out of government.
    1:59:03 So, you know, Churchill wasn’t even involved in that decision-making process at the time.
    1:59:05 No, I don’t think so.
    1:59:11 I mean, again, I go back to kind of Britain’s position in the world in 1939.
    1:59:20 If you say, we are going to defend the sovereignty of Poland, and then you don’t, that looks really
    1:59:20 bad globally.
    1:59:25 You know, Britain’s prestige would plummet, would lead to all sorts of problems.
    1:59:30 You are saying that you’re giving carte blanche to dictators to just run amok and take whatever
    1:59:31 territory they want.
    1:59:39 You are risking a future upheaval of the global order away from democracies into the hands
    1:59:40 of dictators.
    1:59:47 You know, in the West, people believe in democracy and believe in advancement of freedoms of people.
    1:59:56 To echo the words of Roosevelt in August 1941, you know, they’re responding to a world free
    1:59:57 of want and fear.
    2:00:06 Now, obviously, there’s still some issues with the form that democracy takes in the 1930s.
    2:00:08 It’s not democratic for everyone.
    2:00:15 You know, try saying that if you’re in Nigeria or India or whatever, or if you’re, you know,
    2:00:19 in the black Southern states of the United States, but the aspirations are there.
    2:00:22 And I think that’s, that’s, that’s an important distinction.
    2:00:27 And I think by saying that, that Churchill is the chief warmonger of the Second World War,
    2:00:28 I think is, is ludicrous.
    2:00:33 You know, it’s the same thing about, about the bombing, you know, the, the, the detractors
    2:00:37 of strategic air campaign always go, yeah, but you know, Germans had the Holocaust, but,
    2:00:40 but weren’t the, weren’t the allies just as bad just killing all those civilians?
    2:00:44 It’s like, no, because the moment Hitler stopped the war, the bombing would stop, you
    2:00:49 know, the moment the war stopped in Hitler’s favor, the killing would continue and be accelerated.
    2:00:55 So the, the thing you mentioned initially is the sort of the idealist perspective of, well,
    2:01:05 Britain can’t allow sort of, uh, this warmonger to break all these pacts and be undemocratic,
    2:01:15 you know, um, murder a large number of people and do conquest of territory.
    2:01:16 Okay.
    2:01:17 That’s idealistic.
    2:01:26 But if we look at the realist perspective, what decisions would minimize the amount of suffering
    2:01:28 on the continent in the next 50 years?
    2:01:36 So one of the arguments that he’s making, I happen to disagree with it, to put it mildly,
    2:01:42 is that Churchill increased the amount of suffering.
    2:01:45 So Churchill, Churchill’s presence and decisions.
    2:01:48 So we’re not talking about idealistic perspective.
    2:01:55 We’re talking about realist, like the reality of the war, of Stalin, of, of Hitler, of Churchill,
    2:02:04 of, uh, of France and FDR, did Churchill drag Hitler into a world war?
    2:02:08 Did he force Hitler to invade Soviet Union?
    2:02:15 Did he force Hitler to then invade, uh, attack Britain?
    2:02:19 Well, no, because, because Hitler was always going to invade the Soviet Union if, unless,
    2:02:22 unless the Soviet Union invaded Germany first.
    2:02:23 So that was always going to happen.
    2:02:32 Um, no one asked Hitler to invade the low countries and Norway and Denmark and attack Britain.
    2:02:42 Um, he does that, of course, because he’s not given a free hand in Poland, but there’s
    2:02:47 no question that Hitler would have also wanted to subdue France or certainly turn France from
    2:02:50 a democracy into a totalitarian state as well.
    2:02:51 I’m absolutely certain about that.
    2:02:54 So I think there’s pretty definitive evidence.
    2:02:57 I mean, it’s obvious from everything he said, from everything he’s written, from everything,
    2:03:03 everywhere that he was going to invade the Soviet Union, uh, no matter what.
    2:03:07 And France, most likely, yes.
    2:03:09 Also, he would have done a deal with Britain.
    2:03:10 Britain could have existed.
    2:03:18 So, actually, there is a, is there, there is a possible reality, I don’t know, maybe you
    2:03:22 can correct me on this, where Hitler basically takes all of Europe except Britain.
    2:03:26 Yes, but then he would have got so strong that he would have then turned on Britain as well,
    2:03:31 you know, because he, he would, you know, the fear is that if you let him do this and then,
    2:03:34 then he gets greedy, he wants the next one, then he wants the next one, then he wants the
    2:03:34 next one.
    2:03:36 And, you know, then he wants to take over the whole world.
    2:03:40 And, you know, that is, that is the fear of the British.
    2:03:42 That is the fear of the Americans.
    2:03:46 That’s the fear of President Roosevelt, who’s got a very, we haven’t even touched on this
    2:03:53 yet, but he has a very difficult, uh, um, case on his hands because he’s come into power
    2:04:00 also in January, 1933, um, as President of the United States on an isolationist ticket
    2:04:05 with a retrenching, with a kind of sort of, you know, step away from the European old order.
    2:04:06 It’s time for the Europeans to start on their own.
    2:04:09 Um, it all sounds very familiar right now.
    2:04:16 Um, and, and suddenly he’s got to do this gargantuan political vault fast, um, and prepare
    2:04:21 the nation for war because he also fears, like Churchill fears, like most, like Chamberlain
    2:04:29 feared as well, um, that, that Hitler’s designs are not purely on Eastern Europe and the Liebens
    2:04:31 from there, but would get ever bigger.
    2:04:34 And I don’t, I don’t doubt that they’re right.
    2:04:38 I think if he’d prevailed in the Soviet Union, you know, he’d, he’d always wanted more, you
    2:04:41 know, because his whole concept is the master race, you know?
    2:04:42 Yeah.
    2:04:48 I think, I think it should be said if we, if we measure human suffering, if there was not
    2:04:55 Britain on the other side, if it was not a two front war, that the chances of Hitler succeeding
    2:04:58 in the Soviet Union is much higher or at least a more prolonged war.
    2:05:04 And there would be more dead and more enslaved and more tortured and all of this.
    2:05:05 Yes.
    2:05:09 And, and ditto, if you, you know, if the, if the allies hadn’t gone involved against Imperial
    2:05:12 Japan, you know, it would have been, would have been catastrophic.
    2:05:20 I mean, 20 to 30 million Chinese dead anyway, you know, with American and British intervention.
    2:05:22 And it wasn’t going to be in China without that.
    2:05:29 I mean, and elsewhere, you know, because, because the reason why Japan invades French,
    2:05:38 Indo-China, now Vietnam, um, and Hong Kong and, um, and Malaya and Singapore and, uh, and so
    2:05:44 on and Burma is because it’s not winning in China and it needs more resources because it’s
    2:05:48 resource poor and America has cut off the tap.
    2:05:52 So it’s going into these countries to, to get what it needs.
    2:05:57 It’s rubber and oil and natural resources and oils, precious oils and all the rest of it.
    2:06:01 And if it had been unchecked, it would have done so.
    2:06:06 And then it would have absolutely built up its strength and overrun the whole of China with
    2:06:07 even more deaths.
    2:06:12 So, you know, I, I, I think there is, I think that one of the interesting things about the
    2:06:16 second world war is, is lots of wars and why people get involved in them are extremely
    2:06:23 questionable, but I think there is a moral crusade to, to the allies and what they’re
    2:06:26 doing that I think is entirely justified.
    2:06:33 What I think is interesting also is that as the war progresses, you know, if the allies
    2:06:36 are supposed to be on the force of the good, how come they’re doing so much bad?
    2:06:40 And at what point is doing bad, stopping you from doing good?
    2:06:45 And at what point are you doing good, but also doing bad at the same time, such as destruction
    2:06:52 of cities, um, destruction of monasteries on outcrops in Southern Italy, you know, destruction
    2:06:56 of killing a lot of civilians, et cetera, et cetera.
    2:07:02 You know, these are, these are difficult questions to, to answer sometimes.
    2:07:05 They’re also incredibly interesting.
    2:07:09 And I think that moral component starts to blur a little bit by kind of middle of the
    2:07:10 war by 1943.
    2:07:17 You know, it’s, it’s kind of easy to have a, a fairly, uh, cut and dry, uh, war in North
    2:07:20 Africa and the deserts of North Africa, where, you know, the only people getting in the way
    2:07:22 are, are a few sort of Bedouin tribesmen or something.
    2:07:27 But, but once you start getting into Europe or getting into the kind of the, the meat of highly
    2:07:32 dominated countries in the far East, um, for example, that’s a different kettle of fish
    2:07:39 because the scale of destruction is absolutely immense, but it is also the job of, of political
    2:07:44 leaders, um, to look after and defend their own peoples first and foremost.
    2:07:48 And so what you’re doing is you’re trying to protect your own sovereignty, your own people
    2:07:51 before you’re protecting other people.
    2:07:58 And so that’s what leads to, you know, the whole way in which the allies are the Western
    2:08:04 allies are protracting war is to try and minimize the number of deaths of their own young men as
    2:08:07 much as they possibly can, whilst at the same time winning the war.
    2:08:13 And that means bringing lots of destruction to your enemies, but also trying to minimize it.
    2:08:16 And the way you bring lots of destruction by to your enemies is by using immense firepower
    2:08:21 and this concept of steel, not our flesh, which I mentioned earlier on and technology,
    2:08:26 um, so that you don’t have to bring to bear too many of your young men’s eyes.
    2:08:29 You don’t have a repeat of the slaughter of the first world war.
    2:08:34 So, you know, it is really interesting that, that in, in, in our mind’s eye, when we’re thinking
    2:08:39 of, you know, the Western allies and the second world war, probably the first thing that comes
    2:08:43 into mind is Americans jumping out of landing craft on Omaha beach on D-Day, for example,
    2:08:48 those are infantrymen. They’re the frontline, they are the coal face of that. They’re the first people
    2:08:55 going into the, into the fire of the enemy. And we tend to think about guys in tanks, um, infantrymen
    2:09:01 with their Garand rifles or, you know, machine guns or whatever. That’s, that’s what springs to mind.
    2:09:07 Yet actually they’re a comparatively small proportion of the army. So no more than 14 to 15% of any army
    2:09:14 allied army is infantry. 45% are service corps, service troops, driving trucks and cooks and
    2:09:19 bottle washers and people lugging great big boxes of stuff. You know, and that’s because by that stage,
    2:09:23 you know, the allies have worked out of the way of war, which is, is to, is to use is what I call big
    2:09:30 war. This concept of, of a very long tail logistics, the operational art, making sure that people have
    2:09:36 the absolute best you possibly can, great medical care, huge advances in, in, in first aid and medical
    2:09:41 care of troops, getting them back onto the battlefield. And you’re using firepower and
    2:09:48 technology and mechanization to do a lot of your hard yards. So, you know, that’s the principle behind
    2:09:53 strategic bombing. You know, if you can, if you go over and bomb and you can destroy infrastructure
    2:09:59 and civilians and households that makes it much harder for, for crop to make those pamphlet tanks
    2:10:04 and tiger tanks or whatever it might be and guns, uh, and you know, you’re disrupting the
    2:10:09 transportation system in Germany, you know, you’re making life difficult for them to do what they need
    2:10:14 to do. Then that means it’s going to be easier for those 15, 14, 15% of infantry. And you’ve got to
    2:10:19 jump out of landing craft to do their job. And you’re trying to keep that to a minimum. And you’d have to
    2:10:23 say, broadly speaking, that’s a very sensible policy that makes an awful lot of sense.
    2:10:31 consequence of that is a huge amount of destruction. And maybe that’s what Daryl Cooper’s
    2:10:38 driving at, but no one asked Hitler to invade Poland. I mean, you know, that is the bottom line.
    2:10:42 No one asked Germany to go to war. No one asked Hitler to come up with these ludicrous ideology.
    2:10:49 Yeah. There’s complex ethical discussions here about, uh, uh, just as you described,
    2:10:52 which are fascinating, which are fascinating. And, uh,
    2:11:00 war is how, and there’s many ways in which it is how, uh, just for a little bit, the steel
    2:11:10 man, what, uh, Daryl is where he might be coming from is since world war two, the simplistic
    2:11:19 simplistic veneration of Churchill. So I was saying Churchill, good, Hitler, bad has been used as a
    2:11:29 template to project under other conflicts to justify military, uh, intervention. And so his general,
    2:11:37 his and other people like libertarians, for example, resistance to that overly simplistic veneration of
    2:11:43 somebody like Churchill has to do with the fact that that seems to be by neocons and warmongers
    2:11:50 in the military industrial complex in the United States and elsewhere, using Hitler way too much,
    2:11:54 using Churchill way too much to justify invading everywhere and anywhere.
    2:11:59 Well, I, I, I do agree with that. I think oversimplification of anything is a mistake.
    2:12:06 You know, life is nuanced. The past is nuanced. It’s okay to be proud about certain things and it’s
    2:12:09 okay to be disgusted by other things. That’s absolutely fine. You know, we have a complicated
    2:12:15 relationship with our past. It doesn’t need to be black and white and, um, you know, life is not a
    2:12:19 straight line. And of course there’s the, you know, the allies make plenty of mistakes in, in,
    2:12:23 in world war two overall, I think they made the right calls. And I think one of the things that’s
    2:12:30 really interesting is I think that the allies for the most part use their resources much more
    2:12:40 judiciously and sensibly than the axis powers do. And, you know, good, um, because that means they
    2:12:46 prevail. I think, you know, there are so many lessons, um, from world war two that could have
    2:12:52 been brought into the last history of the last 30 years, which weren’t, you know, such as, you know,
    2:12:57 if you have, if you, if you decapitate an incredibly strong leader, you get a power
    2:13:01 vacuum. And if you don’t have a solution for that power vacuum, lots of bad elements are going to
    2:13:05 sweep into that in very quick order, which of course is exactly what happens in, in, in Iraq.
    2:13:10 So, you know, Dr. Ronson going, we don’t do reconstruction where you’ve freaking well should
    2:13:15 do, you know, this, this, if you’re going to, if you’re going to take on this, this particular
    2:13:19 challenge, you’ve got to see it through, you know, that’s, that’s simply not good enough.
    2:13:22 You know, it’s not good enough to go into Afghanistan and go, okay, we’re going to change
    2:13:26 things around. It’s going to be great. You know, all the women are going to have education. They won’t
    2:13:33 have to wear kind of, you know, uh, um, won’t have to cover up their bodies anymore. Um, anything
    2:13:38 goes, we love liberalism. It’s great. Um, let’s make Kabul into a thriving city once more and then
    2:13:43 suddenly bug out, you know, cause what, what, what’s going to happen? You’re going to undo
    2:13:48 everything. And, and I remember being in, you know, this is a bit of a segue legs, but I remember
    2:13:54 being in, in Northern Helmand province back in, you know, when it was January, 2008 and, uh, British
    2:14:02 troops had just taken over an absolute dump of a town called, um, Musakala. And I remember talking
    2:14:07 to this Afghan guy, he just had all his willow trees chopped down to make room for a helipad that the
    2:14:13 allies wanted, which said, you know, put that kind of surround, you know, those cages with kind
    2:14:18 of rubble in the protective wall. Is it called Hescombe? I think it was called. Anyway, I said to
    2:14:21 him, what do you, what do you think about, about the British being there? And he just went, shrugged
    2:14:25 at me and lifted up his hands and said, well, you know, if they stay great, but they weren’t.
    2:14:32 And, and he said, said, you know, if they stay, then brilliant. But he said, I’ll tell you what,
    2:14:37 he said, Taliban weren’t great. They weren’t fantastic. He said, but I could leave my personal
    2:14:40 wall and no one would touch it. I could leave it on a wall for a week. No one would touch it.
    2:14:45 He said, said, will they bring that kind of order? You know, will, will we have, will we have peace
    2:14:52 here? You know, they’ve just chopped down my, my willow trees. You know, thanks a lot. And you,
    2:15:02 you know, you, you, you’re seeing a total lack of understanding of the culture, ethnic differences.
    2:15:08 You’re trying to impose a kind of Western centric view onto something, which is just some, you know,
    2:15:13 onto, onto, onto a, onto a nation, which isn’t, isn’t ready for that. Now there are ways in which,
    2:15:19 you know, it looked like Afghanistan was starting to kind of emerge and there was a path. And then just
    2:15:28 at the critical moment, the West moves out with catastrophic consequences. What you have to say,
    2:15:35 though, is that in the West post-1945, the rehabilitation of Italy, of Japan, of Western
    2:15:42 Germany was really good. You know, the consequence of, of all that destruction, all that turmoil was
    2:15:52 thriving, high producing democracies, which burst forth into the kind of second half of the 20th
    2:15:59 century and into the 21st century in pretty good order. Um, so the lessons of the previous generation
    2:16:05 for the first world war had, had been, had been learned, even though the scale of destruction,
    2:16:13 the displacement of people is unprecedented in 1945. In 1939, what was the state of the militaries?
    2:16:18 What were the most powerful militaries on the world stage at that time? Well, um, in terms of naval
    2:16:23 power, Britain, as we’ve already discussed and, and, and the United States, um, France has a pretty large
    2:16:29 Navy. Uh, Japan has a pretty large Navy. Italy has a pretty large Navy, but Italy’s Navy is by far and
    2:16:34 away. It’s most modern aspect of its three services, air, land, and sea. Um, but it doesn’t have any
    2:16:39 aircraft carriers and it doesn’t have any radar. So, you know, it’s, it’s, they’ve got modern battleships
    2:16:46 and battle cruisers, but without key modern bits of technology. So Italy is really not ready for.
    2:16:54 Oh, it’s so not, it’s so not. It’s just, again, both Hitler and Mussolini, they, they lack geopolitical
    2:17:00 understanding. You know, that’s because they’re so kind of focused on their narrow worldview and they
    2:17:04 view everything through that prism, but they can’t see that bigger picture. And we should say that
    2:17:10 Mussolini, maybe you can correct me, but I don’t think at any point he wants a war. He doesn’t want
    2:17:15 a war. What he does want is he wants his own new kind of Roman empire, which extends over the
    2:17:19 Mediterranean, the kind of certainly the Eastern part of the meta half of the Mediterranean, North
    2:17:24 Africa, all the way down to kind of East Africa controlling the Suez canal. That, that’s, that’s
    2:17:29 what he wants. And I think you made clear that he was, I mean, there’s always like this little brother
    2:17:36 jealous of Hitler kind of situation because he, he wanted absolute power the way Hitler did, but
    2:17:44 doesn’t have it. Doesn’t have it. Yeah. There’s a monarchy often forgotten. It’s amazing.
    2:17:52 So there’s always this limit and Hitler quite brilliantly. Once he gets some power, he takes
    2:17:54 it all complete.
    2:18:00 He completely emasculates Mussolini and yeah, he likes him though. It’s really weird. Even
    2:18:08 when Mussolini is about to fall in July, 1943 as a meeting at Feltre, um, just literally a few
    2:18:14 days before Mussolini tumbles. And he does that because he likes Mussolini. He likes him as a man
    2:18:19 and thinks he’s been his friend. And, you know, he respects him to a certain extent, even though he’s,
    2:18:25 he, he definitely views himself as top dog. Hitler does that is. Um, so it’s kind of curious
    2:18:29 because I don’t think Hitler particularly likes anyone really, but, but, but he does seem to like
    2:18:34 Mussolini. But anyway, the problem with Mussolini is Mussolini, Mussolini’s Italy is, is very
    2:18:39 impoverished from the first world war, you know, and that of course leads to the rise of fascism and
    2:18:45 the overthrow of parliamentary democracy and, and why Mussolini takes place in the first place.
    2:18:49 You know, again, it’s that kind of, there’s been this terrible disruption. There’s been financial
    2:18:56 crisis. That leads to kind of people looking at an alternative, you know, what’s the alternative?
    2:19:00 Well, Mussolini is going, you know, we can be proud Italians again, lots of chest thumping,
    2:19:03 you know, wearing great uniforms, all the rest of it. And people kind of think, well, you know,
    2:19:08 I’ll have a piece of that. And it kind of works. And, you know, proverbially the trains work on time
    2:19:13 under him and so on and so forth, but he just gets ahead of himself, you know, and, and actually the
    2:19:17 writings on the war in 1935, when he goes into Abyssinia and, and, you know, again, sort of what
    2:19:23 effectively are kind of by first world European standards, primitive tribesmen in, in,
    2:19:28 in Abyssinia, you know, they, they have quite a tough fight there. You know, they, they do prevail,
    2:19:34 but, but it’s not a complete walkover and they get a bit of a bloody nose at times and they shouldn’t
    2:19:39 have done. And they’re just not ready. They don’t have the industry. You know, they’re, they’re tied up
    2:19:43 into the Mediterranean. They don’t have access to the world’s oceans. They do have some merchant shipping,
    2:19:48 but not a huge amount. Um, you know, they just don’t have what is required. They don’t,
    2:19:53 they’re dependent on Britain for coal. Britain is the leading coal exporter in the world in the 1930s.
    2:20:01 universities. So Britain’s approach to fascist Spain and approach to fascist Italy has been very
    2:20:06 much sort of stick and carrot. It’s like, you know, we’ll let you do what you do as long as you kind of
    2:20:13 stay in your box and, and, you know, we’ll continue to provide you with supplies and coal and whatever
    2:20:20 as long as you need, as long as you don’t kind of go too far. And so that’s why Mussolini is very
    2:20:27 anxious in 1938. And again, in 1939 to kind of be the power broker and kind of not let Germany go to
    2:20:33 war, but Germany’s just, you know, they, they signed the axis pact of steel in May, 1939, where they become
    2:20:39 formal allies. This is Hitler and Mussolini, Italy and Germany, but it’s always a very, very unequal
    2:20:44 partnership right from the word go. And one of the reasons Mussolini signs it is because he fears
    2:20:46 that Germany has designs on Italy. Yeah.
    2:20:51 It’s not because he thinks, oh, these guys are great. You know, there are natural bedfellows.
    2:20:59 It’s so that he can, what it’s a mutually convenient pact whereby Germany gets on with whatever it wants
    2:21:04 to do up in Northern Europe and Eastern Europe. Italy is given a free hand to do whatever it wants to do.
    2:21:09 They’ll just kind of watch each other’s backs. They have borders, you know, Austria and Italy border
    2:21:13 one another, and they’ll just do their own thing and they’ll kind of help each other out with supplies
    2:21:20 and stuff. But, but basically they won’t, they’ll, they’ll, they’ll be their own. It’s a kind of marriage
    2:21:24 of convenience. You know, they’re never expected to be fighting alongside each other on the battlefield.
    2:21:30 Not really. There is a kind of obligation to do so, but, but it’s, it’s an obligation with no
    2:21:35 expectation of ever actually happening. And so from Mussolini’s point of view, the pact of steel is,
    2:21:40 is kind of, you know, it’s just sailing your flag to one particular mast and kind of trying to cover
    2:21:46 your, cover your back. And so long as he plays his cards, right, you know, he can, he can still get
    2:21:49 his coal supplies from Britain. He doesn’t have to worry about that. You know, the pact of steel doesn’t
    2:21:57 make any difference to that. The problem for him is, is that in June, 1940, he thinks that France is
    2:22:01 about to be defeated and the Britain will surely follow. And so he thinks, ah, I’ve got some rich
    2:22:07 pickings. I can take Malta or I can take British possessions. I can overrun Egypt. And, you know,
    2:22:11 now is my time, but I, I also need to kind of join the fight before France is completely out of the
    2:22:15 fight. Otherwise it looks like I’m a Johnny come lately and I won’t, I won’t get those spoils because
    2:22:19 the Germans will go, yeah, you can’t have all this stuff. You’ve turned up too late. You need to be in
    2:22:23 the fight. So he does it. What he thinks is the perfect timing. And it turns out to be a
    2:22:26 catastrophic timing because of course, Britain doesn’t exit the fight. You know, Britain is still
    2:22:33 there. And, you know, by February, 1941, a very, very tiny British army in Egypt has overrun, you
    2:22:38 know, two entire Italian armies and taken 133,000 prisoners in North Africa.
    2:22:45 So you mentioned in the sea, uh, who were the dominant armies who were, who was dominant in the air?
    2:22:49 Well, in the air, it has to be the Luftwaffe. Uh, and it is also the Imperial Japanese,
    2:22:54 both in the Imperial Japanese Navy and the Imperial Japanese army that they both have air forces.
    2:23:00 And one of the reasons that is because the quality of the pilots in Japan is extremely high because
    2:23:06 it’s so difficult to get, to get to the top position. You know, you are going to your frontline
    2:23:11 squadrons with at least 500 hours in your log book. To put that into some perspective, you know,
    2:23:17 a British RAF or Luftwaffe pilot would be joining their frontline squadrons with 150 to 170 hours in
    2:23:25 a log book. So it is that these guys are disciplined to within an inch of their lives. Um, they are,
    2:23:30 you know, there are academic tests as well as physical endurance tests. You know, they are the elite of
    2:23:36 the elite and they are extremely good. The problem they have is that there is a good number of them,
    2:23:43 but there’s not that many. The Luftwaffe is, is the largest air force in the world in 1939,
    2:23:50 but it is already at a parity when in, in aircraft production with Britain. Um, and
    2:23:54 the French have a kind of similar size army, but they’re very, very badly organized. So they’re also,
    2:23:58 they’re organized into different regions and they, one region doesn’t really, is not really
    2:24:03 talking to another. And one of the problems that when case yellow, the invasion of German invasion of
    2:24:08 the West starts, France’s army of the air is spread throughout France and has its own little area.
    2:24:14 So you have one bunch of, you know, fighters and bombers in that block in, you know, in the Marseille
    2:24:18 area, you have another block in kind of, you know, on the Brittany coast, and you have another block in
    2:24:22 around Sudan and you have another that. So, so consequently, they’re never be there. They’re
    2:24:27 never able to kind of bring their full strength to bear. So it’s, although, although they’ve both got
    2:24:32 about three and a half thousand aircraft on paper and about two and a half thousand that are fit to
    2:24:39 fly on any one given day, the Luftwaffe, because they’re the aggressor, can choose how they mass
    2:24:45 their aircraft and where they attack and at when. So in other words, you can send, the Luftwaffe can send
    2:24:50 over overwhelming amounts of bombers and fighter planes and pulverize a French airfield and catch
    2:24:55 them napping. And because the French don’t have a defense system, they can’t see whether they’re
    2:24:59 coming. So their only hope is to kind of take off and just hope they stooge around the sky and hope
    2:25:04 they bump into some Luftwaffe. And of course, that’s inherently inefficient and they get, you know,
    2:25:10 they get destroyed and they get destroyed in penny packets rather than en masse. Difference with the
    2:25:17 RAF is, is the RAF is not done on an air force basis where you have each air corps or air fleet has
    2:25:24 a handful of bombers, a handful of fighters, a handful of reconnaissance planes. They have different
    2:25:28 commands. So they have bomber command, fighter command, training command, cursor command, and they
    2:25:32 all have very specific roles. So they’re, they’re structured in a completely different way. And the
    2:25:39 other, and that’s because they’re an island nation, um, and because they see their role militarily in a,
    2:25:44 in a, in a, in a different way. And because the rearming that Britain has done in the 1930s is all
    2:25:49 about defense. It is not about aggression at this point, not about taking it to the enemy. It is,
    2:25:54 it is showing your tough, but also first and foremost, getting your ducks in a row and making
    2:25:59 sure that you don’t get defeated. So this is the principle behind the, the first, the world’s first
    2:26:04 fully coordinated air defense system, which is the radar chain. It is the observer core. It is control
    2:26:11 rooms. It is interesting technology, such as identification, friend or foe, IFF, which is where you have a little
    2:26:17 pulse, which, so you have these control rooms and you have a map table and you have a tote board in front of
    2:26:21 view where you can see what squadrons are airborne, what state of readiness they’re at, you know,
    2:26:24 whether they’re engaging the enemy, little lights come on and show you, you can see weather maps, you
    2:26:29 can see, see the cloud ceiling, you see all that at glance, then you’re on a dais. And then down in
    2:26:35 front of you is a massive, great map of Southern England. You’ve got croupiers, got a moving plots.
    2:26:40 So you can, through a combination of radar, which picks up a kind of a rough idea of what’s coming
    2:26:46 towards you combined with the observer core. You have overlapping observer core stations all over
    2:26:51 Britain, covering every single inch of airspace over Britain, looking up into the air and seeing
    2:26:57 how many aircraft there are and at what height they are. And you have a little thing called a
    2:27:03 pantograph, which is a piece of equipment, which helps you judge altitude. You then ring through that,
    2:27:08 that all comes into the control room, along with the information from the radar stations,
    2:27:13 which is going into a single filter room, fighter command headquarters, which is then being pushed
    2:27:19 straight back out to the sector stations. So this information is being updated all the time. So you
    2:27:26 have a plot and it looks like it might be, you know, enemy bombers, 30 plus, for example, that’s
    2:27:30 constantly being adapted. So as more information comes in, you will change that. And then you can see
    2:27:35 that actually it’s only 20 aircraft or 22 aircraft or whatever. So you’re updating that and that little
    2:27:40 figure is put on the, on your little plot and moved across. And so you can see, and then because you can
    2:27:48 identify your own aircraft, you can then see where they are moving. And you’re also on, um, the guys in the
    2:27:54 air are on the radio to ground controllers who were in these control rooms and they’re saying, okay, well, if you
    2:28:00 proceed at, you know, angels, 18, 18,000 feet, you know, on a vector of, you know, one five O degrees,
    2:28:07 you should be seeing your enemy bombing formation any moment now. And what that means is that you’re
    2:28:12 not on the ground when the enemy are coming towards you with their bombers to hit your airfield,
    2:28:16 which means you’re in the air so that all they’re doing is hitting a grass airfield,
    2:28:22 which you’ve already got bulldozers and diggers and graders and lots of scalpings and earth ready to
    2:28:27 fill in the potholes. And it means you’re good to go. And it means as a consequence of all that,
    2:28:33 when the Germans do, um, launch their all out assault on Adler tag Eagle day on the 13th of
    2:28:38 August, 1940, the British are ready. You know, they’re, they can see them coming. They know what
    2:28:43 to expect and they can anticipate. And it means that they’re not being caught with their trousers down
    2:28:49 on the ground. And as a consequence of that, of the 138 airfields there are in, um, RAF airfields
    2:28:54 there are in Britain, only one of them is knocked out for more than 48 hours in the entire summer of
    2:29:00 1940. And that’s Manston on the tip of the Kent coast, uh, which is abandoned for the duration.
    2:29:02 So these are the two biggest air forces.
    2:29:04 So those are the two biggest air forces.
    2:29:14 Luftwaffe, we should say German. I mean, they’re like the, uh, the legendary, the terrifying air force.
    2:29:20 They are maybe, maybe they’re slightly believing their own hype. There’s no question about it.
    2:29:23 Well, the rest of the world is also right. They’ve just had it too easy. So they don’t have,
    2:29:27 they don’t have ground controllers. They don’t have an air defense system in, in, in Germany,
    2:29:30 because why would you need an air defense system? We’re going to be the aggressor.
    2:29:36 You know, there’s no scenario where we’ll have to defend the airspace of the third Reich because
    2:29:39 we’re on the offensive. So they just haven’t prepared it.
    2:29:45 So there’s that clash, the battle of Britain, the clash of air forces. What explains the
    2:29:48 success of Britain in defending?
    2:29:52 Well, it’s, I mean, you know, and everyone always says, you know, the, the few were the last,
    2:29:56 you know, the last line of defense against the Nazi hordes and all this kind of stuff. And it’s just,
    2:30:02 it’s all rubbish. Uh, they’re the first line of defense. Second line of defense is the Royal Navy,
    2:30:07 which is the world’s largest. And there’s absolutely no chance on earth that a German
    2:30:14 invasion force made up of Rhine river barges. One of, out of every three is motorized and the
    2:30:19 other two aren’t is ever going to get successfully across the English channel. And even if they did,
    2:30:24 they will be repulsed. I mean, they just, it’s just no chance. And it is often forgotten that while
    2:30:29 the Luftwaffe is coming over and bombing Britain every single day, so is the RF going over and bombing
    2:30:34 Germany. And one of the problems that the Germans have is, is that these bombers need
    2:30:40 fighter protection. You know, fighter planes are there to protect the bombers and they don’t have
    2:30:46 much fuel. And the Messerschmitt 109E, the Emil as a model is of 1940 is the mainstay of the German
    2:30:54 fighter force in the summer of 1940. And they don’t have much fuel. So they need to conserve their fuel,
    2:30:58 which means they need to be as close to Britain as they possibly can, which is why the majority of them
    2:31:03 are all in airfields, which are hastily created in July, 1940, following the fall of France in the
    2:31:07 Pas de Calais, which is the closest point, you know, that’s where the channel is, it’s narrowest and all
    2:31:12 the rest of it. And also in the Northern Normandy. And that’s where they’re flying from. But what that means
    2:31:18 is that even if you’re completely rubbish at bombing, which the British are in 1940, they haven’t developed
    2:31:24 those navigational aids that create untold accuracy by the end, end of the war. 1940, they don’t,
    2:31:29 they don’t have that luxury. It’s a target rich environment. I mean, you know, you can barely miss
    2:31:33 if you go over to the Isle of, you know, over to the Palakala. I mean, it’s literally, it’s just like
    2:31:38 one huge, great kind of hub of fighter airfields. And consequently, that means that every single
    2:31:43 German squadron, which only is 12 airplanes strong on, on establishment, and very often even fewer
    2:31:49 than that, always has to leave two airplanes behind to defend their own airfields. And it’s really
    2:31:52 interesting when you look at kind of prisoner of war statements from, from Luftwaffe crown crew that
    2:31:57 have been downed. They’re all bugs at a holding place called Trent Park. You can see the transcripts of
    2:32:00 these conversations. They’re all going about how annoying it was that the RAF were over every night
    2:32:04 and they can’t sleep. And, you know, when they, if only they’d just shut up and leave them alone and
    2:32:08 not bomb them. And, you know, this is just part of the narrative of the Battle of Britain that’s
    2:32:13 completely left out. It’s always the stocky, you know, the plucky few against the kind of the,
    2:32:17 you know, the Nazi hordes and all the rest of it. And it’s just, it’s a complete misnomer. And by
    2:32:24 that time, aircraft production in Britain is massively outpacing the Germans. And the best ratio that the
    2:32:32 Germans achieve in 1940 is July 1940, when the British produced 496 new Hurricanes and Spitfires,
    2:32:38 single engine fighters. And, um, the Germans only produced 240 single engine fighters. That’s the
    2:32:42 best ratio. And of course, you know, that is the British outproducing the Germans two to one.
    2:32:48 And what that means is by the end of October, 1940, when the Battle of Britain is sort of, you know,
    2:32:54 officially designated as being over, um, the single engine fighter force of Luftwaffe is less than 200
    2:33:02 from 750 or whatever it was in beginning of July. Whereas the British fighter force had been 650 or
    2:33:09 whatever. The beginning of July is now well over 750. And Britain is outproducing. Yeah, but to a massive
    2:33:15 degree. And that, that continues. And, you know, that is a ratio that just increases as the war
    2:33:22 progresses. I mean, Britain produces 132 and a half thousand aircraft in the second world war. America
    2:33:30 produces 315,000. So why is there this legend of the Luftwaffe? Well, because it’s the spearhead of the
    2:33:36 Blitzkrieg. So it has to do with the Blitzkrieg. It sort of do with the Blitzkrieg. The Luftwaffe becomes
    2:33:39 the kind of the, the, the bogeyman of the Third Reich, you know, they’re blamed for everything,
    2:33:44 but that’s because they’re completely abused. They’re the only part of, of the Third Reich’s
    2:33:49 armed services. The only part of the Wehrmacht, the Wehrmacht being the Navy, the army, and the air
    2:33:59 force, um, that is in constant use the whole time or constant abuse, I should say. In Britain and America,
    2:34:04 they rotate their, their pilots really, really carefully. By the time that, but the, the, that,
    2:34:09 you know, you’ve got the eight fighter command, for example, part of the mighty eighth, the eighth
    2:34:15 air force operating in Britain by the, by, by the end of 1943, you would have in a squadron that would
    2:34:20 have 60, you would never have more than 16 airborne from a squadron at any one time. You would have 40 to
    2:34:27 45 pilots to serve as 16 in the air and similar number of aircraft, which means you’re not overusing
    2:34:32 these guys. And what would happen is by that stage of the war, by 1943, you know, a young fighter pilot
    2:34:38 coming to a, to a Thunderbolt squadron or a Mustang squadron, for example, um, at the end of 1943,
    2:34:45 beginning of 1944, he’d have 350 hours of consecutive flying because you can train in, in America, in
    2:34:51 Florida or California or Texas or wherever you’ve got, you, you, you can process many, many more people
    2:34:56 because the training is much more intense because you’ve got clear skies. So you’re not, it’s not a
    2:35:00 question of, of, oh, we’d like to take you out, out Fritz this morning, but you know, it’s a bit
    2:35:05 cloudy and, and, oh, the RAF are over or, you know, the air forces are over. So we can’t fly today.
    2:35:11 So in Germany, pilot training is constant. Air crew training is constantly being interrupted by,
    2:35:17 by the war, by shortage of fuel, by inclement weather, et cetera, et cetera. In America, you have
    2:35:21 none of those problems. And Britain, because of its global reach, also has training bases in,
    2:35:27 in what was Rhodesia and Zimbabwe and South Africa, um, in Canada as well. Uh, and so you’re
    2:35:31 able to process these, these guys much better. You’re able to give them more training. So that
    2:35:35 when they come there, the absolute, the finished article is pilots. What they’re not the finished
    2:35:40 article as is say a bomber pilot or, uh, as a fighter pilot, but that’s okay because you join your
    2:35:47 squadron of 40 other guys for 16 airborne and the old hands kind of take you up a few times. So you
    2:35:54 arrive at, I don’t know, let’s say some airfield in, in Suffolk in East Anglia in England. And you know,
    2:35:59 you’ll have 10 days to two weeks acclimatizing, getting used to it. The, you know, the old hands
    2:36:04 will put you through your paces, give you some trips, tips. You can pick their brains during kind
    2:36:09 of while you’re having some chow and listening on some briefings. Then the first mission you do will
    2:36:14 be a milk run over to France where the danger is kind of pretty minimal, you know, and you can build
    2:36:19 up your experience. So that by the time you’re actually sent over on a mission to Berlin or
    2:36:25 Bremen or, you know, the Ruhr or whatever, you’re absolutely the business. So qualitatively and
    2:36:31 quantitatively, you are just vastly superior to anything the Luftwaffe has got. The Luftwaffe by
    2:36:38 that stage, in contrast, 1940 new pilots coming to frontline squadrons with 150, 170 hours on there,
    2:36:43 in their log books, less than a hundred, hundred, 90, 92 hours, something like that.
    2:36:47 It’s not enough. And, and they’re just being flung straight into battle and they’re getting
    2:36:51 absolutely slaughtered. And they’re also, because their machines are quite complicated,
    2:36:57 there’s no two-seaters really. So no two-seater trainers. So the first time you’re flying in your
    2:37:04 Focke-Wulf 190 or your Messerschmitt 109, it’s this horrendous leap of faith, which you as a young,
    2:37:11 bright Luftwaffe fighter pilot, know that you’re not ready for this. And it can bite you. And something
    2:37:17 like a Messerschmitt 109 has a very high wing loading. So it’s very maneuverable in the air,
    2:37:23 but it’s got these tiny wings. It’s got this incredible torque, this Daimler-Benz DB605 engine
    2:37:27 with its huge amount of torque. And it just wants to flip you over. So if you’re not used to it,
    2:37:31 and it’s got a narrow undercarriage as well, if you’re not used to it, you could just crash.
    2:37:38 So in the first couple of months of 1944, they lose something like 2,400 aircraft in the air
    2:37:44 and pilots, and about 3,400 are accidents. So it has to do with training, really?
    2:37:45 Yeah.
    2:37:46 Not training enough.
    2:37:53 It’s training and resources and supply. And the Second World War, more than any other conflict,
    2:38:01 is a war of numbers. There are differences, the decisions that generals can make. There are
    2:38:10 moments where particular brilliance and bravery can seize the day, take the bridge, hold the enemy at bay
    2:38:17 or whatever. But ultimately, you’re talking about differences which might make a month’s difference,
    2:38:21 six months difference, maybe even several years difference. But ultimately, there was a certain
    2:38:27 point in the Second World War where the outcome is absolutely inevitable, because the guys that lose
    2:38:31 can’t compete with the numbers that the guys are going to win at half.
    2:38:37 So in that sense, you could think of World War II as a battle of factories.
    2:38:38 Yes.
    2:38:46 What does it take to win in the battle of factories and out-manufacturing military equipment
    2:38:48 against the Allies?
    2:38:54 It’s efficiency, really. So I always think, let’s take the example of the Sherman tank,
    2:38:59 for example, the mainstay of the Western Allied forces, and a fair number of them sent to the Soviet
    2:39:00 Union as well, for that matter.
    2:39:04 Uh, I think you’ve said it doesn’t get the respect it deserves, maybe?
    2:39:09 It doesn’t get the respect it deserves. So the Sherman tank, the 75-millimeter main battle gun,
    2:39:13 which is a sort of medium velocity, fire a shell around kind of 2,000 feet per second,
    2:39:19 compared to the notorious, infamous German 88-millimeter, which can fire at kind of third
    2:39:27 fast again, like 3,000 feet per second. But on paper, a Tiger tank coming around the corner,
    2:39:34 and a Sherman tank coming around the corner, it should be no match at all. Tiger tank is 58 tons,
    2:39:39 looks scary, is scary. It’s got a massive gun, got really thick armor. Sherman tank doesn’t have
    2:39:44 as thick armor. It doesn’t have a gun that’s as big. It should be an absolute walkover. And yet,
    2:39:51 at about 5:30 PM on Monday, the 26th of June, 1944, a Sherman tank came around the corner of a road
    2:39:56 called a Rue Monsieur, a little village called Fontenay-la-Pesnel in Normandy, came face-to-face
    2:40:01 of a Tiger tank and won. How does this happen? Well, I’ll tell you how it happened, because
    2:40:07 the commander of the Sherman tank was experienced, had one up the spout. So what I mean by that is,
    2:40:11 he had an armor-piercing round already in the breach. As soon as he saw the Tiger tank, he just
    2:40:16 said, “Fire.” That armor-piercing round did not penetrate the Tiger tank. It was never going to.
    2:40:21 But what it did do is it hit the gun mantlet, which is a bit of reinforced steel that you have
    2:40:26 just as the barrel is entering the turret. And that caused spalling, which is the little
    2:40:31 shards of little bits of molten metal, which then hit the driver of the Tiger tank in the head.
    2:40:36 And he was screaming, you know, “Gotton Himmel” or whatever, and, you know, couldn’t really see.
    2:40:43 The moment they got hit, the commander of the Tiger tank retreated into the turret of the Tiger.
    2:40:48 The moment you retreat into a turret, you can’t see. You can see because you’ve got periscopes,
    2:40:52 but your visibility is nothing like as good as it is when you’ve got your head above the turret.
    2:41:00 Immediately after that, the armor-piercing round from the Sherman tank was repeated by a number of
    2:41:04 high explosive rounds, which are rounds which kind of, you know, detonate, have a little minor charge.
    2:41:09 Then there’s a second charge, which creates lots of smoke. And in moments, in the first 30 seconds,
    2:41:15 10 rounds from that Sherman tank had hit the Tiger tank before the Tiger tank had unleashed a single
    2:41:22 round itself. And the crew then surrendered. So you didn’t need to destroy the Tiger tank,
    2:41:27 you just need to stop it operating. If it hasn’t got a crew, it’s just a chunk of metal that’s inoperable.
    2:41:34 So that’s all you need to do. And what that tells you is that experience counts, training counts.
    2:41:41 The agility of the Sherman tank also counts. It’s a smaller shelf, therefore it’s easier to manhandle,
    2:41:46 which means you can put more in a breach quicker. There’s features on a Sherman tank, like it’s the
    2:41:50 first tank to have a gun stabilizing gyro, which means it’s more effective on the move. There’s also
    2:41:53 an override switch on the underside of the turret so that the commander, if he just sees something out
    2:41:57 of the corner of his eye, can immediately start moving the turret before the gunner, who is down in
    2:42:04 the belly of the turret, can react. There’s many different facts of it. But the main fact of all
    2:42:10 is 1,347 Tigers built. There were 49,000 Shermans. So that means there’s 36 Shermans to every single
    2:42:11 Tiger.
    2:42:17 So you actually have an incredible video. You talk about this a lot from different angles,
    2:42:24 about the top five tanks and then the bottom five tanks of World War II. I think, was it the Tiger
    2:42:26 that made both the top five and the bottom five?
    2:42:27 The problem with the Tiger tank is it’s really huge.
    2:42:32 We should say that you keep saying the problem, but one of the pros of the Tiger tank…
    2:42:33 It’s very huge.
    2:42:37 It’s, I mean, the psychological warfare aspect of it, it’s terrifying.
    2:42:37 Yes.
    2:42:43 So I don’t know what the other pros, I mean, I guess, yeah, the 88 millimeter.
    2:42:48 High velocity and all the rest of it. You know, it’s pretty fearsome, but there are pragmatic problems.
    2:42:55 The big problem is the Germans are incapable of mass production on a scale that Americans can do.
    2:42:58 In fact, even the British can do. I mean, they’re just not in that league. The reason they’re not
    2:43:02 in that league is because they’re in the middle of Europe. They don’t have access to the world’s
    2:43:05 oceans. They don’t have a merchant fleet. They can’t get this stuff. It hasn’t gone terribly
    2:43:10 well in the Soviet Union. You know, they can’t process it and they’re being bombed 24 hours a day.
    2:43:15 And so all their factories are, you know, having to split them all up. And that is inherently
    2:43:19 inefficient because you’re then having to kind of move different parts around and, you know,
    2:43:23 you’re then having the whole process of having to travel from one place to another to get stuff.
    2:43:29 You haven’t got much fuel. So the consequence of that is that what you do is you think, okay,
    2:43:34 well, we can’t mass produce. So let’s make really brilliant tanks. But they’ve lost sight of what
    2:43:42 really brilliant is, you know, really brilliant to their eyes is big, scary, big gun, lots of armor.
    2:43:49 But actually what conflict in World War II shows you is that you need more than that. You need
    2:43:54 ease of maintenance. You need reliability. And the problem with having the bigger the tank,
    2:44:00 the more complex the maintenance equipment is. You know, you need a bigger hoist, which then means you
    2:44:05 need a bigger truck, which then uses more fuel. So for example, the Tiger tank is so big that it doesn’t
    2:44:11 fit on the loading gauge of the European railway system. So they have to have different tracks
    2:44:16 to roll onto the wagons that will then transport them from A to B, you know, take them from West
    2:44:21 Germany to Normandy. Then they have to take them off. Then they have to take off the tracks, put on
    2:44:26 combat tracks, then move them into battle and hope that they don’t break down. The problem is when you
    2:44:32 start the war, it’s not very automotive and you’ve only got 47 people for every motorized vehicle in
    2:44:38 Germany compared to three in the United States or eight in France, is that you’ve got lots of people
    2:44:43 who don’t know how to drive. It also means you haven’t got lots of garages and mechanics and
    2:44:51 gas stations and so on. And so you’re then creating an incredibly complex beast, but you want that complex
    2:44:56 thing to be as simple as you possibly can be. And that’s the beauty of the Sherman tank. You know,
    2:45:00 all those guys in America, they’re used to driving stick cars, you know, one of three people for every
    2:45:04 automobile, you know, and that includes, you know, the old and children. So almost, you know,
    2:45:09 every young man knows how to drive. And when you get into a Sherman tank, it’s got a clutch,
    2:45:13 it’s got a throttle, the brakes are the steering mechanism. The clutch is where you would expect the
    2:45:18 clutch to be. It’s got a manual shift. You put your foot on the clutch and you shove it into second
    2:45:23 gear and off you go or reverse or whatever. And it literally can be easier. Anyone who could drive
    2:45:29 a stick car could drive a Sherman tank. Seriously. Not everyone can drive a Tiger tank. It’s incredibly
    2:45:36 complex. Really, really is. And that comes with a whole host of problems. And of course, you don’t have
    2:45:43 the numbers. You don’t have the numbers. You know, you’ve got 1,347 of them. You’ve got 492 King
    2:45:47 Tigers, which are even bigger. And, you know, at a time where you are really short of fuel,
    2:45:52 you’re really short of absolutely everything. And those shells are huge and they’re harder to
    2:45:57 manhandle and weird little things that the Germans do, you know, for all their design genius, the loader
    2:46:04 is always on the right-hand side. Now, in the 1920s and 19 teens and 30s, children were taught to be
    2:46:09 right-handed. You weren’t allowed to be left-handed. So you were right-handed. So you want to be on the
    2:46:15 right-hand, left-hand side of the gun. So you can take the shell from your right and swivel it into
    2:46:21 the breach with your, from your right side. But the loader in a, in a Yag Pamphor or Pamphor or Tiger
    2:46:25 is always on the, on, on the right-hand side of the breach, which is ergonomically makes no sense
    2:46:31 whatsoever. Why do they do this? I’ve never found an answer to this, but you know, so there’s all these
    2:46:36 little things. And, and as a soldier coming up against, you know, you’re an American GI and you’re
    2:46:40 coming up against a, a tiger tank. You don’t care about the fact that it’s difficult to maintain
    2:46:46 or the problems of involved of trying to get it to the battlefield. All you care about is this monster
    2:46:50 coming in front of you. It’s squeaking and clanking away and it’s incredibly scary and it’s about to
    2:46:55 blow you to bits. That’s all you care about. And quite understandably so. But, but those who are
    2:47:00 protracting the war at a higher level and historians that come subsequently and look at all this stuff,
    2:47:06 they do need to worry about all these things. I remember the same Georg Thomas, the architect of
    2:47:11 the hunger plan. Um, I found this, this, this minutes of this meeting, which I think was either
    2:47:16 on the 4th of December or the 5th of December, 1941. So it’s just before the red army counterattacks
    2:47:24 outside Moscow and the winter of 1941. And it’s a meeting about weaponry. And, and I, and this is a
    2:47:30 verbatim quote, he says, we have to stop making such complete and aesthetic weapons.
    2:47:37 In other words, we’ve consciously be building over-engineered and aesthetically pleasing weapons
    2:47:42 up until this point. And they sort of half manage it, but don’t quite.
    2:47:49 We could probably talk for many hours about each of these topics. We could, we could talk for 10 hours
    2:47:57 about tanks and encourage people to, uh, to listen to your podcast, uh, world war two pod. We have ways
    2:47:59 of making you talk. It’s great.
    2:48:05 Yeah, we also do. We’ve got, um, got a new YouTube channel and, um, website called world war two
    2:48:12 headquarters. There are lots of walking the ground and videos of that and all sorts of stuff and little
    2:48:20 explainers of going around tanks and stuff and the weaponry and documents and photographic archives.
    2:48:25 So the idea is to sort of turn it into a kind of real hub of anyone who’s interested in this subject.
    2:48:29 It’s a place where they can go and find out just a whole load more.
    2:48:33 I love it. So, like I said, we could probably talk for many hours at each of these topics,
    2:48:38 but let’s look at some of the battles and maybe you can tell me which jumps out at you. I want to talk
    2:48:46 to you about, uh, the Western front and definitely talk about Normandy, but so there was the battle
    2:48:54 of Midway in, uh, 1942, which is a naval battle. There’s Eastern front Stalingrad, probably the,
    2:49:01 the deadliest battle in human history. Then there’s the battle of Kursk, which is a tank battle,
    2:49:09 the largest tank battle in history, probably the largest battle period in history, 6,000 tanks,
    2:49:15 2 million troops, 4,000 aircraft. And then that takes us also to the battle of the bulge in Normandy,
    2:49:20 the Italian campaign that you talk a lot about. So what do you think is interesting to, uh,
    2:49:29 try to extract some wisdom from before we get to Normandy is, do you find as a historian,
    2:49:35 the battle of Kursk or battle of Stalingrad more interesting? Stalingrad is often seen as the
    2:49:35 attorney.
    2:49:40 Well, I, I, yeah, I think so. Uh, I, I mean, it’s really interesting. Um,
    2:49:47 so they get through, they get through 1941, Bob Ross doesn’t happen as, as the Germans hope it will.
    2:49:51 You know, the whole point is to completely destroy the red army in three months and that just doesn’t
    2:49:56 happen. And I think you can argue and argue convincingly that by, let’s say beginning of
    2:50:06 December, 1941, Germany is just not going to win. It just can’t. And let me tell you what I mean by
    2:50:11 that. So if you take an arbitrary date, let’s say the 15th of June, 1941, Germany at that moment has
    2:50:17 one enemy, which is great Britain, albeit great Britain plus Dominion empire. Fast forward six
    2:50:24 months to let’s say the 16th of December. It’s got three enemies. It’s got great Britain, Dominion
    2:50:32 empire, USSR and the USA. It is just not going to win. You know, for all the talks of wonder weapons
    2:50:37 and all the rest of it, it’s just not going to, you know, it is lost that, that battle. Having said
    2:50:46 that Soviet union is still in a really, really bad, bad situation. It is being helped out a huge amount
    2:50:52 by, um, supplies from the United States and from Britain, you know, just unprecedented amounts of
    2:50:58 material being sent through the Arctic or across Alaska into, into the Soviet union at that time.
    2:51:01 It is absolutely staggering.
    2:51:08 Howe much is committed by Roosevelt and Churchill to, to try and stem the flow in, in the Soviet
    2:51:14 union, because for all the, all the announcements and the pride that the Soviet union has about
    2:51:19 moving factories to the other side of the Urals and stuff, which they do in 1941, huge amounts
    2:51:25 are overrun intact by the Germans in the opening stages of Barbarossa. I mean, really, you know,
    2:51:31 colossal losses, huge amounts. So, you know, the grain has gone, coal has gone, um, entire
    2:51:37 factories have gone. Steel production goes down by kind of, you know, 80% in the Soviet union in 1941
    2:51:43 and into 1942. So in 1942, despite the vast amount of numbers of men that they have at their hands,
    2:51:48 I mean, they, they create 80 new divisions in the second half of 1941, for example. I mean,
    2:51:53 Britain never has 80 divisions in the entire second world war division being about rule of thumb,
    2:52:01 15,000 men. So, you know, despite that, and that is because Stalin’s meddling, the woeful state of
    2:52:07 the Red Army in 1941, et cetera, et cetera, which we’ve already sort of touched upon. So 1942, it’s,
    2:52:12 it’s still in a really bad way, but Germany’s in a really bad way too. It’s the, the, the trition it’s,
    2:52:18 it suffered in 1941. It’s winning itself to death in 1941. So it’s having these huge great
    2:52:23 encirclements like the encirclement of Kiev in September, 1941, you know, capturing the further
    2:52:28 kind of best part of 700,000 Red Army troops, et cetera, et cetera. But in the process of doing
    2:52:33 that, it is constantly being attrited, you know, both, both in battle casualties, but in also mechanical
    2:52:41 casualties too. Just can’t cope. It’s just too, the scale is just too big. And what happens is with
    2:52:51 every moment that the German forces, that ultimate victory slips away, so Hitler’s personal handling of
    2:52:58 the battle increases. And, you know, you can say what you like about him, but he just hasn’t had the
    2:53:02 military training to do that. He might have amazing attention to detail. He might be able to understand,
    2:53:09 you know, have an enormous capacity to remember units and where they are on a map, but he was only a
    2:53:13 half corporal in the First World War. He’s never been to staff college. You know, he might have read
    2:53:17 lots about Frederick the Great. I mean, I’ve read lots of history, but that doesn’t mean to say I’d be
    2:53:24 a competent field marshal. So he is not the right person for the job at all. And he micromanages and
    2:53:28 he looks at stickers and figures and doesn’t understand what it’s like at the actual front,
    2:53:35 the coalface. So he’s stifling the very thing that made the German army effective, which is the ability
    2:53:40 to give commanders at the front the freedom on their leash to be able to make decisions and battle
    2:53:44 command decisions. And he’s taken that away from them. So he’s basically making them go into battle
    2:53:52 with decreasing amounts of supplies and firepower and with one hand behind their back in terms of
    2:53:56 decision-making process. And that is not a good combination. The other problem is that he decides
    2:54:01 rather than going for Moscow in 1942, because basically there’s a kind of cooling off period in the winter
    2:54:06 because of the conditions. But everyone knows the Soviet Union, the Red Army knows that the moment
    2:54:10 springs comes, there’s going to be another offensive, but another major offensive in the summer.
    2:54:14 That is absolutely as certain as, you know, day following night, et cetera.
    2:54:19 The problem that the Germans have is they just don’t have enough. They have less than they had
    2:54:25 when they launched Barbarossa the previous year. The Soviet Union has more. It is better prepared.
    2:54:29 It knows what’s coming now. It’s kind of learning some of the lessons, starting to absorb the lessons.
    2:54:36 Stalin, coincidentally, is pulling back from his very tight leash in the way that Hitler is doing
    2:54:43 the opposite and increasing his micromanagement and control for recovery. And what Hitler decides
    2:54:47 is rather than going for Moscow, he’s going to go for the oil fields. And this is absolutely insane
    2:54:53 because what’s going to happen when they get to the oil fields? I mean, does he think really that the
    2:54:59 Soviet Union are going to let those oil fields come into German hands intact? Even if he does let them
    2:55:06 get in intact, what are they going to do with that oil? I mean, oil needs to be refined. Where are you
    2:55:12 going to refine it? You know, they don’t have many oil refineries. How are you going to ship that oil
    2:55:18 to where you need it to be in the factories and the Third Reich and into your, you know, process it into
    2:55:24 into gasoline and then get it and diesel and get it to your U-boats, get it to your tanks, get it to your
    2:55:29 armoured units? How are you going to do that? How do you transport it from the Caucasus, which is a long,
    2:55:35 long way away from Berlin? How are you going to do that? There’s no pipelines. There’s only some pipelines.
    2:55:39 They’ve been built by American money and American engineering, and they’re going backwards towards the
    2:55:45 Urals, not forwards. They have no more rail capacity whatsoever. They just don’t have the oil tankers.
    2:55:52 So it’s just, it’s, it is absolute la la land. It is incredible that when you look at the detailed
    2:55:58 literature that the Germans have, no one is asking this question in the, in the spring and early summer
    2:56:03 of 1942. The logistics question in part. No one is saying, okay, it’s great that we’re going to go to
    2:56:08 the Caucasus and get all this oil, but then what? No one is asking that question. Nor how do you
    2:56:12 provide resources and feed and the soldiers and all that kind of stuff? I mean, it’s.
    2:56:16 So, so the case blew, first of all, they get distracted by going into Crimea and they go,
    2:56:22 well, we’ve got to do that first. So they have to get Sevastopol and the Crimea, which they do.
    2:56:28 And then they have to push on. And at this point, suddenly looming in front of them is Stalingrad
    2:56:34 on the banks of the Volga, this, this city, this industrial city, which has Stalin’s name.
    2:56:39 And Hitler goes, okay, what I’m going to do now is I’m going to split my forces. So half
    2:56:43 of you can go south towards the Caucasus and the rest of you can confront Stalingrad.
    2:56:49 And on box, just who’s the commando just goes, that’s nuts. That makes no sense whatsoever.
    2:56:55 You know, you’re, you’re, you’re splitting the mission. So Hitler fires him. So suddenly they get,
    2:57:02 get into this assault for Stalingrad. And it becomes this sort of street fight. Street fighting
    2:57:06 is the worst kind of fighting. I mean, the reason why the Israelis have just blown everything
    2:57:10 up in, in Gaza is because otherwise you can’t see, you know, you need a field of fire. This
    2:57:13 is a fighting up in a fighting in a buildup area is, is horrendous.
    2:57:17 Yeah. To clarify, we’re talking about urban warfare, door to door, building to building.
    2:57:23 It’s incredibly difficult. And home advantage is colossal in this, this instance. And of
    2:57:26 course it’s piping hot when they attack in kind of August into early September, and then
    2:57:32 it suddenly gets very, very cold. And at the same time, American mechanization and slightly
    2:57:39 a British mechanization, but primarily American trucks are enabling Zhukov to plan this great
    2:57:45 pincer movement. So it is, you know, and, and Russians will hate me for saying this. Um,
    2:57:48 and I probably will get a whole load of bots on the back of it, but, but, but the truth
    2:57:57 is, is it is not the street fighting that destroys sixth army. It is encirclement, the subsequent
    2:58:02 encirclement. So they’ve, the Germans have been sucked into this street battle in Stalingrad.
    2:58:06 Cannot give up. We cannot give up. We cannot back down. We cannot pull out. We’ve got to,
    2:58:11 we’ve got to destroy this city. Meanwhile, while their backs are turned and while most of their
    2:58:16 forces are going off to the Caucasus on a wild goose chase for absolutely zero oil, incidentally,
    2:58:23 um, and they never get remotely close to Baku, this huge great pincer movement is, is, is being
    2:58:28 planned. And it is only possible through mechanization from the United States.
    2:58:36 And that is the big turning point because from that moment onwards, the Germans are on the back
    2:58:40 foot. They’re basically going backwards. There are little small counterattacks. There is obviously the
    2:58:47 cursed salient, for example. Um, but it, it, it’s game over, you know, the, the catastrophe of the
    2:58:52 surrender of the final. So I mean, the writing is on the wall at the end of 1942, but by November
    2:58:58 1942, when, when the, when the, uh, the two, um, Soviet fronts meet up, then, then, you know,
    2:59:06 there is no possible chance of escape for Sikfami. They are consigned. They are toast. And their final
    2:59:09 surrender obviously happens at the very beginning of February, 1943, but that’s all over. And then
    2:59:16 at the same time that that is happening, disaster is unfolding in North Africa because Hitler has
    2:59:23 insisted on massively resupplying the Mediterranean theater. And the problem there is the amount of
    2:59:28 equipment that is lost in North Africa is greater than it is at Stalingrad. I don’t think you could
    2:59:35 argue that psychologically. Tunisia is a greater loss than Stalingrad. It absolutely isn’t, but you have
    2:59:42 to see them in tandem as this is two fronts. This is Eastern front, Southern Western front. And this is
    2:59:47 the first time that the Americans have been on the ground against access forces and they lose big
    2:59:52 time. The allies become masters of the North African shores on the 13th of May, 1943. And it is a
    2:59:58 catastrophe. And in that time, 2,700 aircraft have been Luftwaffe aircraft have been destroyed over North
    3:00:05 Africa between November 1942 and May 1943. And overall, there’s a subsequent that summer as well.
    3:00:13 It’s really interesting. The Luftwaffe loses between June and October 1943. So this is including the
    3:00:20 Kursk battle, which takes place in July 1943. In that period, the Luftwaffe loses 702 aircraft over the
    3:00:28 Eastern front, but 3,704 aircraft over the Mediterranean. So I think one has to also, one of the lessons about
    3:00:32 the study in the Second World War is one has to be careful not to assign strategic importance to
    3:00:39 boots on the ground. It can be of great strategic importance, but not necessarily. You know, no one
    3:00:46 would argue, for example, that the Guadalcanal is not an absolutely game-changing battle in the Pacific
    3:00:49 War. And yet the number of troops compared to, you know, what’s going on in the Eastern front or even,
    3:00:58 you know, the Western front is tiny in comparison. So it is absolutely true that the most German blood is
    3:01:03 on the Eastern front. But that doesn’t mean to say that it’s more strategically important than
    3:01:06 the Western front. It’s a, it’s, it’s, and it’s not saying that the Western front is more strategic
    3:01:12 either. It’s just, you have to kind of be balanced about this. The psychological blovo of Stalingrad is
    3:01:14 immense and you, you cannot belittle that.
    3:01:19 I mean, there’s the, we went over it really fast, but there is a human drama element.
    3:01:20 Yes.
    3:01:27 But yes, when we’re talking about the operational side, the material loss of a battle is also extremely
    3:01:34 important to the big picture of the war. And we often don’t talk about that because of course,
    3:01:38 with war, the thing to focus on is the human drama of it.
    3:01:38 Yes.
    3:01:44 And I also think that what’s interesting is the, is the Nazi high command’s response to
    3:01:51 Stalingrad, which is not to go, we’re screwed. It’s to double down. It’s, you know, then so,
    3:01:55 so Goebbels, for example, gives his infamous speech in the sports palace and third week of February,
    3:02:01 1943, where he goes, are you ready for this? You know, this is now total war. The war is coming.
    3:02:07 This is a fight for survival. We’re all in it together. You are in this as well. You know,
    3:02:14 every single one, every single German is now, this is a fight for survival. And we are now in total war
    3:02:21 and, and everyone is just so depressed by this. I mean, they realize that there is, that they have,
    3:02:27 they, they will, are going to reap what they have sown, you know, because everyone knows what’s been
    3:02:31 going on in the Eastern front because first part of the war, Germans have loads and loads of cameras.
    3:02:35 They’re really into photographing everything, taking Sydney footage of everything. So part of
    3:02:39 recording the greatness of the Reich and the triumphs of the Reich, they want it recorded. So all this
    3:02:43 stuff is a bit like the radios is made very, very cheap. So lots of having, and people are sending it
    3:02:47 all back. And, you know, the people that are developing this stuff are all seeing it and people
    3:02:50 are talking about it. And then it’s been sent to families and they’re all seeing it and they’re seeing
    3:02:59 pictures of Jews being rounded up and beaten and they’re seeing, um, Ukrainian partisans being
    3:03:08 executed and they’re seeing villages being torched and everyone knows. They all know. Yeah. This whole idea
    3:03:13 is, you know, do they really know what was going on? Yeah, they do. They do know what’s going on, you know,
    3:03:19 to lesser or greater detail. Of course, you know, there’s some people who don’t and, you know, a bit like
    3:03:22 people know about the news today. Some people do, some people don’t. Oh, I never read the newspaper.
    3:03:28 I never listen to the news. You know, so you have that of course, but, but, but it is widely understood
    3:03:35 and widely known that really brutal things have been going on in the Eastern and troops coming back
    3:03:41 utterly traumatized by what they have taken part in, what they have witnessed, the kind of unspeakable
    3:03:46 brutality. This is war on a completely different level to anything that’s been kind of seen in recent
    3:03:51 years. Yeah. We should, we should mention that, you know, the Western front and the Eastern front
    3:03:56 are very different in this regard. Yes. So a lot of the Holocaust by bullets, the Holocaust with the
    3:04:03 concentration camps and extermination camps is not in Germany. It’s not in the Western front. It’s in
    3:04:09 Poland. It’s in the Soviet Union. Yeah. But don’t forget that even Auschwitz, for example, is part of
    3:04:14 the new Reich. It is part of, you know, it is part of an area which has been absorbed into
    3:04:19 Germany. So as far as they’re concerned, this has now got, you know, it’s now no longer got the
    3:04:23 Polish name. It’s now called Auschwitz, which is a German name. It is part of Germany. And there are
    3:04:29 German people moving there into this, you know, air comma model town and they all know exactly what’s
    3:04:36 going on. Yeah. You, by the way, have a nice podcast, uh, series of four episodes on Auschwitz,
    3:04:47 um, the evolution of the dream world town that becomes a camp, a work camp, then becomes an
    3:04:53 extermination camp and a big booner factory for IG Farben, which never produces a single bit of rubber.
    3:05:02 So this for sure is, uh, something I would have to dive deep in. There’s a book you recommended KL.
    3:05:08 Yes. It’s just called KL. It’s about the whole concentration camp system. Um, cause K is
    3:05:16 concentration, um, in German. Lager is a, is a camp. Um, it’s a, it’s an exhaustive book and I’m,
    3:05:21 I’m full of admiration for him for, for writing it just because jeepers, it must’ve been sort of,
    3:05:26 I mean, I, I was very depressed doing that work on Auschwitz, that deep dive. I just found the whole
    3:05:32 thing utterly dispiriting. Um, and I’ve been there a few times and it’s ghastly. Um, so how he wrote a
    3:05:39 whole book on it, I don’t know. I think in the details, there’s, there’s two ways I think to look
    3:05:46 at the Holocaust. One is, uh, man’s search for meaning, but Viktor Frankl sort of this philosophical
    3:05:52 thing about how a human being can confront that and find meaning and what it means. What,
    3:05:59 what, what does the human condition look like in the context of such, uh, evil? And then there is
    3:06:07 the more sort of detailed, okay, well, how, how do you actually implement something like the final
    3:06:14 solution? So you have this ideology of evil implemented. Yes. And at the fine detail of
    3:06:21 what, what are the different technologies used? What are the different humans and the hierarchy of
    3:06:27 humans in a camp? How do they, what’s the actual experience of the individual person who shows up
    3:06:33 at a camp? Yeah. Just get in the details. And in those details, I think there’s some deep, profound
    3:06:40 human truth that can emerge that the, the, the mundane, um, one step at a time is how you can achieve
    3:06:48 evil. Yep. So yeah, you can get lost in the mundane. It’s yes. The banality of evil. It’s, um,
    3:06:55 it’s incredible. I, I think, I think what, what is so, so completely horrific is, is that, you know,
    3:06:59 you know, half the 6 million were killed by kind of bullets to the back of the head.
    3:07:03 And the reason they stopped doing that and they wanted to stop doing that was because
    3:07:09 the guys who, the perpetrators were finding it so traumatic, you know, Himmler goes and visits, uh,
    3:07:14 um, uh, an execution in Ukraine and, or maybe he’s in the Baltic States. I can’t remember where he goes,
    3:07:17 but he, but he, we witnessed some in the, you know, in the summer of 1941, he thinks, oh, that’s
    3:07:21 horrible. You know, I don’t have to do that. I don’t want my men having to do that. I’ve got to find a
    3:07:24 more humane way of doing it. When he’s talking about more humane way of doing it, humane for the,
    3:07:32 for the executors, executioners, not, not for the victims because just me, cyclone B is not a nice
    3:07:36 way to go. You know, it basically, basically it’s bursting all the capillaries in your lungs. It’s
    3:07:42 extremely painful and you, you can no longer breathe and it can take up to 20, 25 minutes. You know,
    3:07:47 some people that can take a couple of minutes, but all of those who are standing naked in that gas
    3:07:53 chamber, first of all, extremely humiliated by this process in the first place. Then there’s a sudden
    3:07:57 realization of the, the, they’re not having a shower. They’re actually being gas and they’re
    3:08:02 all going to die. Imagine what you’re thinking as that processes you, because you might be the first,
    3:08:06 but you’re still going to, even the first person is going to know that I can’t breathe and I’m,
    3:08:11 I’m dying. Everyone else is going to see the first few dying and then going to realize that is what’s
    3:08:17 going to happen to them. And you’ve got those minutes, sometimes many minutes where you’ve got to
    3:08:25 contemplate that, that, and, and that’s, that’s in extreme pain and panic. And just think about how cruel
    3:08:32 that is while being humiliated all the way through, while being humiliated all the way through. And so
    3:08:42 the inverted commas humanity of, of, of the gas chambers is anything, but it’s disgusting. And the fact that
    3:08:47 people could do this is just beyond horrific. And then the fact that you are taking your Jewish
    3:08:55 prisoners and getting them to cut off all the hair, pull out the teeth of the dead before you put them
    3:09:01 on a lift and incinerate them. If you go to Auschwitz now and you go to the collapse, the blown up gas
    3:09:06 chambers, which the Germans destroyed before the Russians overran them in January 45, you can still see
    3:09:11 some of the ash ponds and there are bits of bone there, but still there from the ash. It’s just,
    3:09:19 it is utterly repulsive. And imagine arriving from that train on that incredibly long journey where
    3:09:22 you’ve had no comforts whatsoever. You’ve had, again, you’ve had humiliations and privation,
    3:09:27 you know, the privations you’ve had to suffer as a result of that, you know, having to kind of
    3:09:32 defecate in a bucket in the corner in front of other people. It’s just horrendous. And then you get
    3:09:36 there bewildered and immediately your kids are taken away from you or your, you know, husband and
    3:09:40 wife who’ve been married 20 years, they’re separated just like that, sent off into different groups,
    3:09:47 straight to the gas chambers. I mean, you know, it is, the scale of cruelty is so immense. It’s hard
    3:09:52 to fathom. And the thing that I find really difficult to reconcile, and this is where I think the, you know,
    3:09:58 the warning from history is important, is that Germany is such an amazing nation. You know,
    3:10:05 it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s the, it’s the country of Beethoven and Strauss and, and of Goethe and
    3:10:12 incredible art and culture and, and, and some of the greatest engineers and scientists have ever lived.
    3:10:22 And look how quickly it flipped into the descent of unspeakable inhumanity, which manifests itself in
    3:10:30 the Holocaust and the gas chambers, um, and those executions into pits and tiny places and creeks in
    3:10:38 Lithuania or Ukraine or whatever. I mean, it’s, it’s, it’s just horrendous. And, you know, this is from a
    3:10:41 nation which a decade earlier had been a democracy.
    3:10:46 It seems like as a human civilization, we walked that soldier in instant line between good and evil.
    3:10:51 Uh, it’s, it’s a thin line and we have to walk it carefully.
    3:10:52 Yes.
    3:11:02 So I, one of the great battles in, uh, in World War II on the Western front is Normandy.
    3:11:11 I have to talk to you about Normandy, uh, D-Day, the Normandy landings, the famous on June 6th, 1944.
    3:11:18 This was a allied invasion of Nazi occupied Western Europe. What was the planning? And it was lengthy
    3:11:22 planning. What was the planning? What was the execution of the Normandy landings?
    3:11:27 Well, the decision to finally go in, when the Americans joined the war in December, 1941,
    3:11:32 there’s the Arcadia conference. A few days later, a week later between the British chiefs of staff and
    3:11:38 political leaders, Churchill and Roosevelt and his own chiefs of staff about what the policy should
    3:11:42 be. And the policy is to get American troops over to Europe as quickly as possible, get them over to
    3:11:49 Britain, get them training, um, and get them across the channel ASAP and, and start the liberation of
    3:11:54 Europe. But the reality is that, that, that in 1942, the Americans just aren’t ready. You know,
    3:11:59 they’ve gone from this incredibly tiny army. They’re still growing. They’ve got no battlefield experience.
    3:12:02 The British are still recovering the, you know, they’re, they’re good on the naval power. They’re kind of
    3:12:09 good on air power. Um, but, but, but land power, they’ve had to kind of make up from the loss of
    3:12:15 their ally France and, and expand as well. So kind of ground zero for both America and Britain has been
    3:12:22 kind of June 1940, 1940 when France is out and suddenly that’s the strategic earthquake. And that’s the,
    3:12:26 the issue that needs settling. And they need to just completely realign everything that they’d,
    3:12:31 they’d fought in 1939. They’ve got to start again, but it’s also becomes clear that it’s,
    3:12:36 they’re not really ready in 1943 either. And one of the problems is, is that Molotov,
    3:12:40 who is the Soviet foreign minister has come over to Britain in May, 1942 and said, you know,
    3:12:45 we need you to kind of do your bit and get on the, get on the, on the campaign trail against
    3:12:48 the Germans and fight on the ground. And the British sort of go, well, yeah, but you know,
    3:12:51 across the elevation is not really going to happen. We know we’re doing that in North Africa at the
    3:12:55 moment. And then he goes over to Washington and, and, um, and the Americans go, you know,
    3:12:59 we’re definitely going to go and take on the attack to the, uh, the Germans in 1942. They’ve
    3:13:04 made this promise. So the summer of 1942, it becomes clear that they can’t keep that. So
    3:13:07 Churchill says, well, look, I’ve got, here’s an idea. You know, we’re in, we’ve already got an
    3:13:12 army in, in Egypt. Why don’t we land another one in Northwest Europe? We can Northwest Africa. We
    3:13:19 can, that’s run by Vichy France, which is pro axis French, um, colonies. Um, why don’t we take
    3:13:22 that? And we can do that. And then we can meet in the middle. We can pincer out and we can conquer
    3:13:26 the whole of North Africa. You can kill with two birds with one stone because you can get some
    3:13:31 experience fighting against axis troops, you know, test some of your, your, your, your equipment and
    3:13:35 commanders, you know, what’s not to like, and then we can sort of see how it goes. So this is a kind
    3:13:40 of opportunistic strategy. Whereas Americans are very much sort of, you know, we, we want to draw a
    3:13:43 straight line to Berlin and that’s the quickest way. And let’s do, do it that way. So it’s kind of a
    3:13:49 different viewpoint. And, but Roosevelt kind of gets that and agrees to that. So that’s where the
    3:13:54 whole North Africa Mediterranean campaign comes from. And as a consequence of the huge commitment
    3:13:59 to Tunisia, you know, three and a half thousand aircraft, huge navies, you know, two army allied
    3:14:05 armies, um, in North Africa, by the time Tunisia is won in mid May, 1943, they think, well, we’ve got
    3:14:09 all this here. We might as well kind of really try and get, put the nail into the coffin of Italy’s war,
    3:14:13 get them out of the battle. You know, Sicily is an obvious one. Let’s go in there and then we can
    3:14:19 take a view. But between Sicily happening and the fall of North Africa is the Trident conference in
    3:14:23 Washington. And that is where the decisions made the Americans go, okay, enough of this opportunistic
    3:14:31 stuff. Let’s just, okay, we get it. We buy it, but no more faffing around, you know, May, 1944,
    3:14:36 one year hence, we are going to cross the Atlantic and the British go, okay, fair cop, we’ll do that.
    3:14:41 So, so that is where Operation Overlord, as it becomes, gets given its code name,
    3:14:46 its operational name. That’s when the planning starts. Serious planning starts at the beginning
    3:14:53 of 1944. And one of the lessons from Sicily to Normandy is that you can’t have commanders
    3:14:58 fighting one battle whilst preparing for the next one. So you have to have a separate, um, uh,
    3:15:02 command structure. And that’s okay because by this time we’ve got enough people that have got
    3:15:06 experience of battlefield command that you can actually split it. There are very good reasons
    3:15:10 for going into Italy, not least getting the Foggia airfields so that you can further tighten
    3:15:15 the noose around, around Nazi Germany. And one of the great prerequisites for the Normandy invasion
    3:15:21 is total control of air power of the air, of the airspace, not just over Normandy, but over a large
    3:15:28 swathe of Northwest Europe. Why is that? Because the moment you land in Normandy, the cat is out of the bag
    3:15:33 and it’s then a race between which side can build up men and material quickest. Is it going to be
    3:15:38 the allies? You’ve got to come from Southern England, which is a distance of a slow journey
    3:15:44 across seas and the distance between kind of 80 and 130 miles away. Or is it going to be the Germans
    3:15:48 that are already on the continent? Well, clearly on paper, it’s the Germans. So you have to slow up
    3:15:52 the Germans. Well, how do you do that? We do that by destroying their means of getting there.
    3:15:57 So bridges, destroy all the bridges over the Seine, destroy all the bridges over the Lovar,
    3:16:02 hit the marshalling yards. The German, the glue that keeps the German war machine together is the
    3:16:07 Reichsbahn, the German railway network. So destroy the railway as much as you possibly can and make it
    3:16:13 difficult for the Germans to reinforce the Normandy British head as and when it comes. But the way you do
    3:16:18 that in turn is by very low level precision bombing. And that has to be done by twin engine, faster,
    3:16:25 smaller bombers going in low. But the problem is, is you can’t go low and destroy those bridges if
    3:16:28 you’ve got Fokker, Walser, Messerschmitts hovering above you. So you’ve got to destroy those, which is
    3:16:34 why you need to have air superiority over this large wave of Northwest Europe to do that. The problem is
    3:16:40 that while the industrial heartland of Nazi Germany is in the West, is in the Ruhr era, which is very
    3:16:47 convenient for bombers coming out of Lincolnshire or East Anglia on the east flat east side of Great
    3:16:53 Britain, the aircraft industry is much deeper into the Reich and it is beyond the range of fighter
    3:16:59 escorts for the bombers. And the American daylight bombers who are going over are discovering that despite
    3:17:05 being called flying fortresses, they’re not fortresses, they’re actually getting decimated. And whenever their
    3:17:11 bombers go in strength over to try and hit the aircraft industry in Germany, beyond fighter range, they get
    3:17:17 decimated. First, infamously on the Schweinfeld Reckenburgs raid on the 17th of August 1943, coincidentally the
    3:17:22 same day that Sicily falls to the Allies, and also coincidentally the same day that face-to-face
    3:17:28 negotiations begin with the Italians for an armistice in Lisbon. But on that day, of the 324 heavy
    3:17:33 bombers that the Americans send over to hit Schweinfeld and Reckenburg, where there are a Messerschmitt plant
    3:17:39 and also a ball bearing plant, which is essential for aircraft manufacturing, they lose 60 shot down and a
    3:17:47 further 130 odd, really, really badly damaged. And even for the vast numbers of manpower and bombers that are coming out of
    3:17:53 America, this is too much. So, they can’t sustain it. So, they’ve got to find a fighter escort that’s going to be able to
    3:18:00 escort them all the way into the Reich and the race is on. Because basically, if they haven’t got one airspace by April
    3:18:06 1944, it’s game over. You can’t do a cross-channel invasion. You have to have that control of the airspace
    3:18:11 beforehand. So, the race is on. Unfortunately, they come up with a solution, which is the P-51 Mustang, which has
    3:18:18 originally been commissioned in May 1940 by the British, developed from sketches to reality in 117 days. It’s
    3:18:22 a work of absolute genius. But start off its harness with a really bad engine. The Allison engine is just
    3:18:28 not right for that aircraft. And it’s not until a Rolls-Royce Merlin, which is the same one that powers
    3:18:33 the Lancaster, the Mosquito and Spitfire and Hurricane, is put into the P-51 Mustang that suddenly you’ve got
    3:18:40 your solution. Because that means it can now fly with extra drop tanks and fuel tanks. It’s so aerodynamic
    3:18:45 and it’s so good, the higher it goes with this engine, the more fuel efficient it becomes. It can actually fly
    3:18:50 over 1,400 miles, which gets you not just to Berlin and back, but to Warsaw and back. So, suddenly, you’ve got
    3:18:56 that solution. And actually, by April 1944, they have cleared airspace. And by the end of May 1944, just on the
    3:19:06 eve of the invasion, Operation Overlord, the closest German aircraft that is seen fighting allied aircraft
    3:19:13 is 500 miles from the beachhead. So, it is absolutely job done. Meanwhile, new fighter, comparatively new
    3:19:20 ground attack fighter planes like Typhoons and Tempests and adapted P-47 Thunderbolts are attacking
    3:19:25 the German radar stations all along the coastline, because they now do have an air defense system.
    3:19:32 They’re destroying kind of 90% of their effectiveness. And in the intelligence game,
    3:19:37 they’re winning that one as well. They’re just much better because in Germany, intelligence is power. So,
    3:19:41 people tend to, you know, and Hitler always has this kind of divide and rule thing going on. So,
    3:19:45 you have parallel command structures, which is not conducive to bringing together of intelligence.
    3:19:49 And while much play has been made about the successes of Bletchley and code breaking and all
    3:19:54 the rest of it, actually, what you have to do is you have to see the kind of the decrypts that the
    3:20:01 Bletchley cryptanalysts do as just a cog. And those various cogs together from listening services to
    3:20:07 photo reconnaissance to agents on the ground, the cogs collectively add up to more than some of their
    3:20:11 individual parts. And so, the intelligence picture is a broad picture rather than just
    3:20:17 code breaking. But anyway, they win that particular battle as well. And what you see really with D-Day is,
    3:20:23 I think, is the zenith of coalition warfare. What you’ve got is you’ve got multiple nations who have
    3:20:29 different overall aims, different cultures, different attitudes, different start points,
    3:20:35 but they have all coalesced into one common goal. And until they’ve achieved that common goal,
    3:20:40 they’re going to put differences to one side. Much play has been made about kind of anglophobia amongst
    3:20:47 American commanders and America phobia amongst British commanders. But actually, it’s nothing.
    3:20:52 It’s a marriage made in heaven compared to the way Germany looks after its own allies, for example.
    3:20:58 And what is remarkable about the allies is they’re not actually allies, they’re coalition partners.
    3:21:05 So, there’s no formal alliance at all. And there is a subtle difference there. But what you see them is
    3:21:12 you see them really, really pulling together. And you see that manifest itself on D-Day, I think,
    3:21:22 where you’ve got, you know, 6,939 vessels, of which there are 1,213 warships, 4,127 assault craft,
    3:21:32 12,500 aircraft, you know, 155,000 men landed and dropped from the air in 24-hour period. It is
    3:21:38 phenomenal. It is absolutely phenomenal. And while it is still seen as a predominantly American show,
    3:21:45 all three service commanders are British, it is most of the aircraft, two-thirds of the aircraft are
    3:21:49 British. Two-thirds of the men landed are British in Dominion. You never forget the Canadians who
    3:21:55 consistently punch massively above their weight in the Second World War. In all aspects, it has to be
    3:22:01 said, air, land, and sea. They’re key in the Battle of the Atlantic. They’re key in air power. They’re key
    3:22:05 at D-Day and indeed in the Battle for Italy as well. So, the Canadians should never be forgotten.
    3:22:14 But one of the reasons it is the British Navy that dominates in D-Day is because, of course,
    3:22:20 the incredibly enormous strength of the Royal Navy in the first place, but partly because most of the
    3:22:25 U.S. Navy is by this stage in the Pacific fighting its own fight. So, it’s not slacking by any stretch
    3:22:30 of the imagination. It is because it’s elsewhere doing its bit for the kind of overall ally cause.
    3:22:35 But D-Day is just extraordinary, you know, and despite the terrible weather,
    3:22:40 which is such a debilitating factor in the whole thing. I mean, it puts people off course. It means
    3:22:44 many more people get killed on Omaha Beach than they might have done and on other beaches besides,
    3:22:49 incidentally. And actually, in terms of lives lost, proportionally, it is the Canadians that suffer the
    3:22:57 worst, more so than the Americans. It’s just there’s fewer of them overall. D-Day has to be seen as an
    3:23:01 unqualified success. I mean, it is absolutely extraordinary what they achieve. And while they
    3:23:06 don’t 100% achieve their overall D-Day objectives, you know, the objectives are always going to be
    3:23:14 the outer reach of what can be achieved. And you’d need absolutely perfect conditions for that to
    3:23:18 happen. And they don’t get perfect conditions. But they’re so balanced. They’re so thought of
    3:23:23 absolutely everything. And their logistics apply. And I mean, even things like the minesweeping
    3:23:27 operations, the biggest single minesweeping operation of the entire war, because there’s
    3:23:32 huge minefields off the Normandy coast and ahead of the invasion force, the minesweepers, which amount
    3:23:38 to, I think, something like 242 different minesweepers in five different operations opposite every single
    3:23:44 beach, creating lanes through these minefields through which the invasion force can go. Not a single
    3:23:50 ship is lost to a mine in the actual invasion. That is phenomenal and can only be done with the
    3:23:55 greatest of skill and planning. And all in a period where, you know, there are no computers,
    3:23:59 there’s no GPS, there’s nothing. I mean, it is absolutely astonishing. And the scale of it
    3:24:07 is just, frankly, mind-boggling. Yeah. And that was really the nail in the coffin,
    3:24:15 the beginning of the end for Hitler, for the European theater. Yeah. Once you get the only cause for doubt is,
    3:24:21 will they be able to secure that bridgehead? The moment they get that bridgehead, it is game over.
    3:24:26 There’s only, you know, there is, there is no other way it’s going to be because of the overwhelming
    3:24:30 amount of men and material that the allies have compared to the Germans at this stage of the war.
    3:24:34 And of course, you know, you’re being attacked on three fronts because there’s the Italian front to the
    3:24:39 south. And of course, in a very major way, you’ve also got the Eastern front and Operation Begratian,
    3:24:44 which has launched that, that summer as well is enormous.
    3:24:49 So let’s go to the very end. The Battle of Berlin. Yeah.
    3:24:57 Hitler sitting in his bunker, his suicide, Germany’s surrender. You actually said that
    3:25:01 Downfall, the movie, was a very accurate representation.
    3:25:04 I think it is really. Except that Goebbels took Son, I didn’t shoot himself.
    3:25:13 Oh, details. But I think it’s probably, it might be my favorite World War II movie,
    3:25:16 which is strange to say, because it’s not really about World War II.
    3:25:18 It’s about Hitler in a bunker, but.
    3:25:23 I think it was in a Bruno Gantz, wasn’t it? I think, I think he, he nailed him.
    3:25:24 Yeah.
    3:25:31 That’s, there’s so many accounts of that. There’s so much written about Hitler. There’s so many of,
    3:25:35 there’s millions and millions of Hitler’s words that you can read. You know, there, there are
    3:25:41 translations of many of his conferences. You can see what he’s saying. You can get inside his head in a
    3:25:48 very clear way, much more clearly than you can Stalin or just about any other leader, really. And
    3:25:50 so
    3:25:55 one has a very, very strong impression of what Hitler was like in the bunker in those last,
    3:26:00 last days. There’s just, there’s so many accounts of it. And
    3:26:06 it just feels like they nailed it. It just feels like they’ve got it spot on to me.
    3:26:15 I mean, it’s a fascinating story of, uh, evil maniac. And then, and this, this certainty,
    3:26:23 you know, crumbling, right? Like realizing that this vision of the third thousand year Reich
    3:26:24 is, uh,
    3:26:27 and Hitler says, says, you know, my reputation won’t be good to start off with, but I hope in
    3:26:30 a few years time that people will start to realize that kind of all the good I was trying to bring.
    3:26:37 And that sort of, they’re all the same, aren’t they? You always believe you’re doing good and
    3:26:44 there’s so many deep lessons there. So now you have written so much, you have said so much,
    3:26:51 you have studied this so much. What do you look in a world war two is, uh, the lessons we should take
    3:27:00 away? Well, I suppose it’s, it’s, it’s what happens when you allow these individuals to take hold of
    3:27:04 great power and great authority and make these terrible decisions. If you allow that to happen,
    3:27:09 you know, there are consequences and you have to be, you have to recognize the moments of,
    3:27:15 of trouble when they arise. So when there are financial crisis, you know, that political unrest
    3:27:21 is going to come and you need to be prepared for that. You know, you need to be able to see the
    3:27:28 writing on the wall. You, you can’t, you can’t be complacent. You know, complacency is such a dirty
    3:27:33 word, isn’t it? You know, you’ve got, you’ve got to keep your wits in and you can’t take things for
    3:27:40 granted. You’ve got to recognize, I think, um, that the freedoms we enjoy in the West are,
    3:27:44 you know, they’re not necessarily permanent and
    3:27:52 you need to make the most of them while you’ve got them and cherish them and consider what happens
    3:27:59 if the milk turns sour and what the consequences of that are. I mean, that’s the overriding thing,
    3:28:03 because although I don’t think there’ll ever be a war on the scale of the second world war,
    3:28:08 you’ve only got to look at pictures of those opening days of the war in Ukraine and see sort of knocked
    3:28:14 out Russian tanks and dead bodies, bloated bodies all over the place, put that into black and white.
    3:28:20 And, you know, it could be the road out of Falais in 1944. It could be, you know, any number of
    3:28:27 German battlefields and in the, in World War II and, and the similarities and the trenches and the kind of
    3:28:33 people hiding in foxholes. And, you know, that, that’s, that’s horribly reminiscent as are the huge
    3:28:37 casualties that they’re suffering on both sides, whether they’d be Russian or Ukrainian. And, you know,
    3:28:44 it’s a shock, it’s a shock to see that. Um, and it reminds you of just how quickly I think things
    3:28:48 can descend. I mean, that’s, that’s, uh, that’s the other thing, you know, at that point I was making
    3:28:54 about how quickly Germany descended from this amazing nation of arts and culture and science and
    3:29:03 development and engineering into one of the Holocaust. I mean, life is fragile and, and peace is
    3:29:12 fragile. And, you know, it’s, you take it for granted at your peril and you take for granted at
    3:29:19 our peril that nobody will use nuclear weapons ever again. And that’s not a thing we should take for
    3:29:26 granted. No, sir. What gives you hope about the future of human civilization? We’ve been talking about
    3:29:33 all of this darkness in the 20th century. What’s the source of light?
    3:29:40 is that I think the vast majority of people are good people who want to live peacefully and want to
    3:29:48 live happily and are not filled with hate. And there are some brilliant minds out there. And I think
    3:29:54 the capacity for the human brain to come up with new developments and new answers to problems and
    3:30:00 is, is infinite. And I think that’s what gives me hope.
    3:30:07 James, this is, uh, I’m a big fan. This was an honor to talk to you and please keep
    3:30:14 putting incredible history out there. Um, I can’t wait to see what you do next. Thank you so much for
    3:30:17 talking today. Well, thank you, Lex. It’s been a heart of privilege to talk to you.
    3:30:22 Thanks for listening to this conversation with James Holland. To support this podcast,
    3:30:29 please check out our sponsors in the description or at lexfreedman.com slash sponsors. And now let
    3:30:36 me leave you some words from Winston Churchill. If you’re going through hell, keep going. Thank you
    3:30:39 for listening and hope to see you next time.

    James Holland is a historian specializing in World War II. He hosts a podcast called WW2 Pod: We Have Ways of Making You Talk.
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    OUTLINE:
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  • #469 – Oliver Anthony: Country Music, Blue-Collar America, Fame, Money, and Pain

    AI transcript
    0:00:05 The following is a conversation with Oliver Anthony, singer-songwriter from Virginia,
    0:00:11 who first gained worldwide fame with his viral hit, Rich Men North of Richmond.
    0:00:18 He became a voice for many who are voiceless, with his songs speaking to the struggle of
    0:00:24 the working class in modern American life. His legal name is Christopher Anthony Lunsford.
    0:00:31 Oliver Anthony was his grandfather’s name. So Chris used this name as a dedication to his
    0:00:36 grandfather and to 1930s Appalachia, where his grandfather was born and raised.
    0:00:44 Dirt floors, seven kids, hard times, as Chris says. He’s happy to be called either one, by the way.
    0:00:50 I’ve gotten to know Chris more since the recording of this conversation. He truly is, as he appears
    0:00:57 online and in his songs. Down to earth, humble, and a good man who deeply feels the pain of the
    0:01:02 downtrodden. And now, a quick few-second mention of each sponsor. Check them out in the description
    0:01:09 or at lexfriedman.com slash sponsors. It’s the best way to support this podcast. We’ve got Masterclass
    0:01:16 for learning, Shopify for selling stuff, Oracle for computing, Tax Network USA for taxes, and
    0:01:22 Element for electrolytes. Choose wisely, my friends. And now, on to the full ad reads. I do them
    0:01:27 differently than most podcasts do. Usually, I barely talk about the sponsor and instead, just
    0:01:34 take this quiet moment to talk about things I’m reading or thinking about. A little Bob Ross-like
    0:01:40 heart to heart between you and me. Also, unlike most podcasts, I don’t do ads in the middle.
    0:01:46 So, uh, they’re all bunched up here in one place. You can skip if you like, but if you do,
    0:01:51 please still check out the sponsors. I enjoy their stuff. Maybe you will too. If you want to get in
    0:01:58 touch with me for whatever reason, go to lexfriedman.com slash contact. All right, on to the ethereal
    0:02:04 realm of sponsorland. Let’s go. This episode is brought to you by Masterclass, where you can
    0:02:08 watch over 200 classes from the best people in the world in their respective disciplines.
    0:02:16 You know, I know so little about filmmaking. The Scorsese Masterclass was instructive. Scorsese
    0:02:26 himself, his approach, his, uh, deliberate, passionate, almost bipolar approach to, uh, filmmaking and to
    0:02:34 editing. It’s inspiring to watch madness manifest into genius. I think about the hand-drawn storyboards
    0:02:42 for Taxi Driver. I haven’t seen them, heard about them. And that, I think, is the birthplace of great
    0:02:48 films, is the storyboards, right? Really, it’s the vision in the mind of somebody like Scorsese
    0:02:54 that then is projected onto the storyboards. So the storyboards is just a slice, but that’s the first
    0:03:03 time they take shape in a visual, physical reality. I should do that more. I should think in the space,
    0:03:08 in the realm of storyboards, especially when I try to do sort of vlog, documentary, filmmaking type of
    0:03:14 stuff. Really inspiring. Anyway, get unlimited access to every Masterclass and get an additional 15%
    0:03:19 off an annual membership at masterclass.com slash lexpod. That’s masterclass.com slash lexpod.
    0:03:26 This episode is also brought to you by Shopify, a platform designed for anyone to sell anywhere with
    0:03:32 a great looking online store. I got a chance to talk to DHH, the creator of Ruby on Rails, for many,
    0:03:41 many, many hours. What a wonderful human being. Genius, but also fun and aggressive in his opinions.
    0:03:49 And holding those opinions, not in a personal kind of way, but in an almost backyard football
    0:03:56 kind of way. Just seeing who wins with a particular idea, just for the explicit purpose of learning
    0:04:02 something from the interaction, from the tension between the ideas, from the debate. Such a fun
    0:04:08 person to talk to. Anyway, I mentioned it because I think about 10,000 or 100,000 times we give a shout
    0:04:20 out to Shopify because Shopify is really an exemplary execution of a system used by a very large number
    0:04:27 of people that is built on Ruby on Rails. That conversation, by the way, is just an homage to
    0:04:33 programming period. And you can think of Shopify as an homage to Ruby on Rails, which DHH really explains
    0:04:38 as well why it’s such a beautiful programming language. Anyway, a lot of love for Shopify to go
    0:04:45 around. Sign up for a $1 per month trial period at shopify.com/lex, all lowercase. Go to shopify.com/lex
    0:04:50 to take your business to take your business to the next level today. This episode was also brought
    0:04:57 to you by Oracle, a company providing fully integrated stack of cloud applications and cloud platform services.
    0:05:08 I was just talking to a friend yesterday about the weather in a way that’s the most generic of topics, but talked about in the least generic of ways.
    0:05:13 And the discussion centered around how much computational power would be required to simulate
    0:05:21 the weather sufficiently to be able to predict it. And I’ve gotten a chance to talk to a few people who chase storms.
    0:05:27 They’re storm chasers. And they actually have to do this kind of weather prediction.
    0:05:34 Obviously, with simulation, you have to always choose a level of abstraction. You can’t get down to the sort of quantum mechanical simulation.
    0:05:42 Or if you do, you’re going to need a large computer, probably as large or larger than the size of the universe if you want to perfectly simulate a thing.
    0:05:45 But sometimes a laptop with a nice GPU will do.
    0:05:54 Anyway, cut your cloud bill in half when you switch to OCI, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, I believe that stands for.
    0:06:00 Offer is for new US customers with a minimum financial commitment. See if you qualify at oracle.com/lex.
    0:06:04 That’s oracle.com/lex.
    0:06:12 This episode is also brought to you by Tax Network USA, a full service tax firm focused on solving tax problems for individuals
    0:06:19 in small businesses. I think this is the right place to mention Oliver Anthony’s, Chris’s song, “Rich Men, North of Richmond.”
    0:06:25 Boy, does the tax law really fuck over the blue collar worker, the everyday man.
    0:06:41 The more complexity there is, the more loopholes there are for people with many lawyers and accountants and expert explorers of the loopholes, finders of the loopholes.
    0:06:48 It’s nuanced, of course, pros and cons. But really, at the end of the day, I think a simpler tax law is better.
    0:06:50 I don’t know.
    0:07:00 That song hit me hard, hit a lot of people hard. And a lot of Chris’s songs do. Sometimes it feels hopeless.
    0:07:09 But I would say more than probably any country on earth, the United States really puts a lot of power in the hands of individuals.
    0:07:17 But we live in the system we live in. So here we are. That’s why you need these guys. Talk with one of their strategies for free today.
    0:07:25 Call 1-800-958-1000 or go to tnusa.com/lex
    0:07:32 This episode is also brought to you by Element, my daily zero-sugar and delicious electrolyte mix.
    0:07:40 Whenever I think about thirst. Whenever I think about water. Whenever I think about electrolytes.
    0:07:47 Once, I think about my time in the Amazon jungle, I record a bunch of different videos from that time and
    0:07:53 I need to put together a little, like a mini documentary of that time to celebrate really
    0:08:01 the jungle and to celebrate the human being of Paul Rosely. This earth, this civilization creates some
    0:08:10 special humans and he’s one. But anyway, I remember thinking about Element, like a, like a cold,
    0:08:17 a drink of water with some element in it. I remember thinking about that when going through the jungle,
    0:08:23 deeply dehydrated. It’s the little things in life. Anyway, get a sample
    0:08:28 pack for free with any purchase. Try it to drink element.com/lex.
    0:08:34 This is a Lex Friedman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description.
    0:08:51 And now, dear friends, here’s Christopher Lunsford, or as many of you know him as Oliver Anthony.
    0:09:06 So I was texting you, uh, last night, uh, sitting at an open mic, listening to a guy perform Great
    0:09:12 Balls of Fire. Uh, like I told you, he was giving everything he got for like five people in the audience,
    0:09:15 plus me. Well, you were there. I’d been, I’d have been doing it too, if you were out there. Like, oh,
    0:09:23 that’s Lex Friedman. No, man. He was, uh, this big dude on a keyboard, just everything. Sweaty, long hair. You could
    0:09:28 tell, like, he was there in his own little world. I love the courage of that, of just giving it
    0:09:33 everything. I don’t think he wants to be famous. I don’t think he wants anything in life except to be
    0:09:39 there and to play like his heart out. That’s why I love open mics. Like some people still aspire to be
    0:09:45 famous when they play open mics, but some people, maybe they’ve given up or maybe they never wanted
    0:09:50 to be famous. They’re just there for the pure artistry of it. So yeah. And you said you started
    0:09:54 out playing open mics at shitty bars. What was that like? Well, yeah, real quick,
    0:09:59 before I forget too, a great example of a, of a guy who had that same mindset and was able to
    0:10:04 maintain it really well as this mandolin player named Johnny Stats in West Virginia. To me,
    0:10:09 he’s one of the best and he’s won all these awards and stuff. And he still works for UPS full time.
    0:10:14 And like, he could go out and tour with it, play mandolin for anybody he wanted to. But he,
    0:10:18 but man, when you meet Johnny, like you can tell he’s just got this, um,
    0:10:26 this joy in him that I don’t think he would have if he, but as far as me with the open mics, um,
    0:10:33 yeah, it was just, it was a lot of them were really, a lot of them were embarrassing. There
    0:10:36 was a couple, I remember there was times where I’d go up and try to do, I do like one song.
    0:10:41 I get like halfway through the next song and I’d be so nervous by that point. I didn’t,
    0:10:43 I couldn’t remember any of the words. And there’s a couple of times I’ve,
    0:10:49 I remember there was one time in particular that I just, I just walked off halfway through the song,
    0:10:53 put my guitar in the case and just, well, I just left. I didn’t even like, couldn’t even stay in
    0:10:58 there. Just total, you know, just total freak out. Just embarrassment. And I never drank in bars
    0:11:03 either. Like I’m not a, I wasn’t really a social drinker. So I was just there to try to do the mic.
    0:11:07 So it was kind of, I was a little out of place anyway. I feel kind of out of place in a bar to
    0:11:11 start with. So yeah, it was back when you could smoke in bars. There’s a whole vibe to it. People
    0:11:17 smoke and drinking and yeah, definitely, you know, bombing in a place like that when the audience
    0:11:24 there’s like five people and they’re bored. Yeah. There was one like that. It was in Motoka. It
    0:11:29 wasn’t that far from where I lived. The place is gone now, but, uh, it was about as big as the room
    0:11:34 we’re in here. If that, you know, like the, the ceiling tiles were yellow from where everybody
    0:11:38 had smoked in it since the beginning of time. And, but like, yeah, that was my little spot.
    0:11:42 Those little type of spots. You did covers. What’d you play? What was your go-to?
    0:11:47 Back then it was like, uh, I don’t know, fishing in the dark, nitty gritty band, or like, um,
    0:11:54 any of those old Hank, like Hank Jr songs, like any of those bar type, um, David Allen Co.,
    0:11:57 like you never call me by my name, any of that kind of stuff. And I haven’t even played any
    0:12:02 of those in forever now, but that was any of those ones where you get people singing along
    0:12:04 and stuff. That’s what I’d always try to do. You know?
    0:12:09 Yeah. That song you performed, take me home, uh, country road and how’s that go? West Virginia.
    0:12:16 Yeah. John Denver was just, uh, one of those guys that it’s who knows where he would have went
    0:12:21 long-term if he wouldn’t have passed, but you know, it’s a fun song that I love. I shouldn’t,
    0:12:25 but I love is, uh, what is it? Uh, like, thank God I’m a country boy.
    0:12:32 I think that’s what I liked about John Denver was he was a little bit like he let himself be a little
    0:12:38 bit corny in the spirit of like having fun with it. Like, um, great example. There’s this old older
    0:12:43 guy that not a lot of people have heard of named Roy Clark, but, um, my farm’s like a mile down the road
    0:12:47 from Roy Clark’s old farm, but he, he used to be on he-haw. I don’t know if you ever heard of that old
    0:12:53 show from like the sixties or whatever, but crazy dude, he could pick any instrument up. Like there’s
    0:12:56 videos on YouTube of them, but he would just sit there and just pick anything up and just rip it to
    0:13:01 death. But he would always just be real silly about it. He never had, he never took it to never took
    0:13:06 himself too seriously. You know, some people go to the fun place. Some people go to the dark place.
    0:13:11 Yeah. There’s a, you know, country can do both. You, you, you more often go to the dark place
    0:13:18 to the, to the pain. Yeah. Well, especially some of the new songs that are coming out that they’ll be
    0:13:24 probably not. I mean, I don’t know what they’ll be. I don’t know what is country anymore. Anyway,
    0:13:28 I don’t know that many people who listen to the type of music that I grew up listening to and probably
    0:13:33 listen to country radio anymore. Anyway, like, I think there’s, there’s quite a lot of people who don’t,
    0:13:39 who’ve sort of disowned that space, you know, in commercialized country, you only really get what
    0:13:45 sells, which in a lot of what sells, isn’t necessarily what matters. Well, you had that
    0:13:50 whole experience where they take what you recorded and polish it, quote unquote, try to make it perfect.
    0:13:55 And then so doing destroy the soul of the thing. And so probably that happens with these big artists.
    0:14:03 They’re so famous. It’s like a machine. And so what the machine does is it over polishes things.
    0:14:10 And so the raw, like power of the person, the uniqueness of the person, the soul of the person
    0:14:14 is gone if you do that. Yeah. Well, I think professionalism in general, like
    0:14:23 applying the tactics of corporate America to anything that is baseline artistic is not going to end well.
    0:14:28 They’re all individually brilliant. But together, this corporate speak comes out.
    0:14:36 Yeah. Just the soul of the people dissipates, it disappears. Why are you all pretending that
    0:14:45 like life is not terrible and beautiful and like, you’re both scared, shitless and excited. And
    0:14:52 this guy’s going through a divorce. This person just fell in love. Like you’re getting the intensity
    0:15:00 of life with this corporate, like nine to five, like, hi, John. It’s great to see you today.
    0:15:08 Oh, you too. You as well. You as well. But when I look at it, I’m like, why am I whining? I feel like
    0:15:14 a Bukowski type character because like, they’re all really nice. They’re all good people. But like,
    0:15:19 something is gone when you have this corporate machine. Well, they’re there to fill a role
    0:15:24 contractually. And if they, I think if they bring too many of their human elements into that, then
    0:15:29 they jeopardize losing their sense of security. And it’s all just out of fear. It’s out of fear of losing
    0:15:34 your job. I mean, it’s the reason why all the songs say Oliver Anthony and not Christopher Lunsford on
    0:15:39 them. You know, like it’s fear of, it’s so difficult to, especially now it seems, I mean, who knows?
    0:15:43 I didn’t, I was never around in the forties or fifties to work a job. I’m sure they were probably
    0:15:48 pretty miserable back then, but you know, they talk about now, like how difficult it is,
    0:15:53 like the, the impossibility of having a single family household or anything else. But like,
    0:15:59 when you find a decent paying job that you can do without it, just torturing you every day, that’s,
    0:16:05 that’s a pretty important thing now, you know, like, and so it, it’s pretty easy to just,
    0:16:10 it’s pretty easy to kind of turn yourself into a robot for eight or 10 hours a day out of fear of,
    0:16:15 it’s like, you don’t want to be yourself too much because maybe part of yourself isn’t something
    0:16:21 that’s accepted in this like dystopian nightmare that you go to work at every day. And so you just
    0:16:26 got to do your best to just not step on any toes or do anything that, that makes you stand out too much,
    0:16:31 you know? And now it’s like, now, like when you scroll through some of these videos of people,
    0:16:35 like the big, even when I was still like, when I was still working my lame job,
    0:16:40 it was like, there was this whole big thing of people talking about quiet quitting or something
    0:16:44 like that, where they were just going to go to work, but not really do anything. But that hurts me so
    0:16:51 much. That hurts me when you just stop when you’re there, but you’re not really there. That makes me so
    0:16:55 sad. Yeah. So then they wonder, these companies just slowly kind of fall apart and disintegrate
    0:17:00 because they’re so worried about structure and, you know, like, I mean, God, man, even in,
    0:17:06 even in America today, our culture has become, because so many big corporations own and manage
    0:17:11 everything that we live under, like food, agriculture, healthcare, like social media,
    0:17:16 it’s all in corporate structures that it’s almost like a lot of the problems we find ourselves in now
    0:17:23 with society, I think are like, it’s just because of, it’s almost like corporate HR has been implemented
    0:17:28 into our whole thought process of everything. You know, it’s like, um, I think that’s kind of what
    0:17:34 you’re touching on though. It’s like, it’s, it’s hard to be, it’s hard to be a human and be a good
    0:17:41 little corporate employee at the same time. Um, and as our whole society moves more into like becoming
    0:17:46 a, like basically one big corporation, it’s like, you don’t want to piss the HR lady off. So it’s a lot
    0:17:51 easier for me to just beep boop. We’re all sort of just turning, we’re all turning into robots,
    0:17:56 you know, and that’s, uh, I’ve talked to great engineers about this. Uh, Jim Keller’s a legendary
    0:18:03 engineer, Elon, Elon Musk is another example that you need that. I don’t know what’s a nice term for,
    0:18:09 but you need the because you want to get to the ground truth of things to the first principle of
    0:18:13 things. Like how do we simplify? How do we make it more efficient? How do we move faster? How do we get
    0:18:21 shit done? And that has no place for this kind of polite speak? And then, you know, other great
    0:18:26 team members swoop in and like repair the damage that the tornado has done.
    0:18:31 Do you think that’s cause I’m not, I’m not super well versed about all this. So I’m probably dumb
    0:18:36 to even mention it, but, um, this guy who’s been helping me with doing a documentary, uh, he’s been
    0:18:43 following me around since the very first show at the August of 23, he, his background was doing,
    0:18:48 um, promotional videos for Boeing, like for on their new spacecraft to pitch it to whoever.
    0:18:53 And so he was, we touched, we touched base a little bit on Boeing. And of course they’re having a lot of
    0:19:00 problems now. It sounds like, and he was comparing that with SpaceX or with, you know, like that,
    0:19:05 that I think it’s that exactly what we touched on with that thought process of that sort of
    0:19:09 dehumanization within companies. I think that’s what ultimately causes maybe, I don’t know if
    0:19:13 there’s a connection there or not, but it seems like Boeing is a very, would be more of that.
    0:19:18 They don’t have that tornado. They’re very like H like he was telling me, even just with his protocols
    0:19:22 and some of the people he worked with, like, everything’s just very, you know, lightly touch
    0:19:25 everything. No one don’t touch anything too hard.
    0:19:32 So it’s not just HR. It’s also, it’s just this managerial class where it’s like Bob from this
    0:19:37 department has to schedule a meeting with John from this department and Debbie, like they have
    0:19:43 to have a meeting two and a half weeks from now. And then there’s paperwork and that, that bureaucracy
    0:19:50 that’s created in the managerial class just slows everything down. And one of the things that slowing
    0:19:57 everything down does is it really demotivates the people that are actually doing the shit. Like the
    0:20:04 people on the ground, the engineers that are building stuff, it’s again, so drenching to like,
    0:20:12 be excited, show up. And now you hit this wall of paperwork. Like you can’t, you have to wait for John and
    0:20:19 Debbie and I forgot the third guy’s name that I imagined in my head to have a meeting. It just,
    0:20:27 and then you kind of slow down and you disappear in terms of that fire, that passion that’s required
    0:20:28 to create big things.
    0:20:31 Yeah. Cause they don’t believe there’s a lack of leadership. And if they don’t believe in,
    0:20:37 if they don’t believe in that leadership, then why the hell would they be motivated? I mean,
    0:20:44 I remember, um, a while back watching a Jocko Wilnick talk about a, um, talk about that when
    0:20:49 he was in leadership, when he was leading his guys, I think he mentions it in his book is probably where
    0:20:56 I remember seeing it. Um, one of his books and he talks about like how important it was for the people
    0:21:01 under him in rank to believe in what he was, the actions he was giving them, even if he necessarily
    0:21:07 didn’t agree with him himself. It was like there, it’s really hard to take orders and go and like to,
    0:21:12 to have human spirit and especially in something that’s innovative and not if you, if you’re working
    0:21:16 for a company where you just think everybody’s dumb. I mean, I can certainly relate with that.
    0:21:20 I mean, God, that’s all at my old job. That’s all we did was we spent half our day just talking about
    0:21:26 how, how dumb we thought everybody was that was above, you know, it’s like, it’s easy to fall into that
    0:21:31 and a corporate world. And so, yeah, the morale gets terrible and, and, and everyone suffers as
    0:21:36 a result of it, you know, like the, the people at the top who are implementing all that dysfunction
    0:21:40 suffer and the people at the bottom, it’s like, it’s not good for anybody. I had thought now that
    0:21:47 I’m doing this, that I could escape away from that, but that exact same mentality and that dysfunction and
    0:21:53 that, um, that inefficiency, like I still battle it every day.
    0:21:58 That’s why it takes, it takes unique characters to lead the way. Such unique characters are very
    0:22:02 much needed in the music industry to revolutionize everything, cut through the bureaucracy, the
    0:22:08 bullshit that ultimately is just a machine that steals money and doesn’t get any, anything done.
    0:22:13 really. Uh, we’ll talk about it. By the way, all the love in the world to Jocko. He’s great. I’ve been
    0:22:20 going through lots of ups and downs in life, lots of low points for myself over the past, uh,
    0:22:29 shit, three years really. But, um, uh, recently, especially, and he always texts in this, in this
    0:22:37 very high testosterone way of like, of like, you good, bro. Just checking in. I mean, he’s a good man.
    0:22:41 He’s a good man. He’s a good man. He’s obviously an inspiration to millions of people, but also just,
    0:22:48 um, he’s a good human being himself. So maybe one, one thing that we felt similarly, I’m just,
    0:22:54 I would imagine you way more than me is just feeling like, like, wow, I have the ability to
    0:23:02 influence or the ability to, to, to, to either bring truth or to improve people’s lives or, or,
    0:23:07 you know, every word that you say sometimes matters so much. And you’re just like, man,
    0:23:11 I’m an idiot. Like, I don’t, like, I don’t know, you know, like I would have never guessed.
    0:23:14 I mean, I, we were kind of talking about that, but before about like, it would have never guessed
    0:23:17 that it would have turned that this would have turned into all this, but it’s, it is a,
    0:23:22 it is a, it is a weight that you bear, whether you really even acknowledge it or not, you know,
    0:23:29 like, um, yeah. And I think it’s like, you know, the, the songs you’ve created,
    0:23:36 they, uh, speak to the human condition, to the struggle of, uh, everyday working people
    0:23:41 in a society that has the elites that tried to take advantage of those working people.
    0:23:52 And you’re just speaking through your music, those truths of how life is. And then that has a huge
    0:23:58 impact on a lot of people. That’s really positive. But then you also get attacked and misrepresented and
    0:24:07 lied about from different angles and just the turmoil, the intense chaos of that. It disorients,
    0:24:16 it disorients me like to be attacked by very large number of people to be lied about, to be just the,
    0:24:24 because I love people and just have, I have a general optimism about humanity. It just disorients me.
    0:24:31 Like, um, it gives me this feeling like I generally, just like you said, think of myself as kind of an
    0:24:39 idiot, not really knowing what I’m doing. And when a lot of people tell you that you’re correct,
    0:24:44 you don’t know what you’re doing. You start to like, want to hide, you want to hide from the world,
    0:24:50 hide from yourself. And then there’s also just the chemistry of the brain. It’s like you shake up the
    0:24:55 brain a little bit. It starts getting, it starts getting weird. And it’s so you can get how many
    0:25:01 fronts. You can get real lonely when getting attacked, when you’re kind of fucking things up
    0:25:10 in many ways and get lonely. Yeah. So it’s been, so you get a text from Jocko, like you good.
    0:25:16 Yeah. Yeah. And then I may have good friends. Andrew Huberman’s been great. Rogan’s been great.
    0:25:25 Well, you know, you, Lex, however many years ago was in a different place in society than Lex is now.
    0:25:29 And so it’s like every conversation you have or every relationship you have is inherently different,
    0:25:34 even if you aren’t any different friends that you had from before maybe, or even just new people you
    0:25:38 meet, your interactions with them are going to be a lot different than if this wasn’t a thing.
    0:25:42 And so it’s like that, that can be tricky too. When you’ve spent your whole life,
    0:25:46 you know, from the time you’re three years old and you’re starting to play with other kids and like
    0:25:51 developmentally learning, like how to share and how to interact. And you’re on the, you’re playing,
    0:25:57 you know, you’re playing on the playground with kids and learning how to like set rules and boundaries and
    0:26:02 how to like basically fit into society. And like, so you have this whole learning pattern up until whatever
    0:26:09 point in time when, when success happens and then it’s like all that shifts pretty dramatically all,
    0:26:14 you know, in a relatively short period of time. And so like, how do you, how do you think like managing
    0:26:19 your previous, like previous friendships or your like, like, you know, how has that been tricky for
    0:26:27 you or like, yeah, it’s been tough. I, you know, I value deep, close, long-term friendships and yeah,
    0:26:32 but I mean, I have amazing friends, but they certainly do treat me a little different. They,
    0:26:39 they bust my balls noticeably less. Yeah. And you need, you need that. So I need, I not sometimes,
    0:26:47 all the time. First of all, it’s how dudes show love is making fun of each other. At least my friends.
    0:26:53 Yeah. Like, you know, we, when you watch, man, I’m going to get in trouble, but when you watch,
    0:26:58 like women interact, they’re often like really positive towards each other. Like, oh, you look
    0:27:06 great. Yeah. We watch dudes interact like close friends. They’re just like, I mean, busting each
    0:27:14 other’s balls. I’ll stop making fun of each other. And so, yes, that has been a little bit harder.
    0:27:20 Or I try, I try to break those walls. Like, but that’s why with the famous friends,
    0:27:23 it’s a little bit easier. Cause they can still like Rogan roast me nonstop.
    0:27:29 So it’s a, and it just feels good. I just sit there and get made fun of. And it’s great.
    0:27:30 Yeah. It’s great.
    0:27:34 And I still do it all the time. I just, it’s just a different experience now, but I,
    0:27:40 I’m like a Goodwill junkie. Like, um, most of, like most of even my clothes were from
    0:27:45 Goodwill, but like, I have this, I have this like addiction with buying paintings from Goodwill,
    0:27:50 like the $8 paintings where it looks like somebody was following along with like a Bob Ross video,
    0:27:54 and it didn’t work out quite right. Like I look, like I buy every one of those. I’ll go in there
    0:27:58 and buy like 10. And so just even, you know, anytime you got into public now, it’s just like,
    0:28:01 you know, it’s going to be a little different than it was, you know, I don’t know if that makes sense
    0:28:05 or not, but yeah, for sure. I mean, I, you know, I’m trying to deal with it, but all of it, when you
    0:28:11 talk to world leaders, when you step into politics a little bit and you apparently stepped into politics,
    0:28:16 even though you never meant to, you’re not a political person that, that world is like,
    0:28:25 what the fuck? It’s very intense, especially at an intense moment in history and in an extremely
    0:28:30 divided country. So. Yeah. Like saying that I’m not in politics, people like, well, of course you’re
    0:28:36 in politics and I don’t know whether I am or not, but just, um, I do think a lot of people in politics,
    0:28:44 politics, like as far as the people who sit on the internet all day and argue about stuff on X or on
    0:28:48 whatever, you know, Facebook and all, like, I do think their heart is in it for the right reasons.
    0:28:53 They observe that there’s a lot of things wrong in the world that they’d like to see different. It’s just,
    0:28:59 how do you get those people out of a, how do you get those people out of this four by four square?
    0:29:05 And like, really like they’re, they’re entrapped in a, in a same kind of box that the people at Boeing
    0:29:11 might be with that struck, you know, it’s too, it’s the tornado metaphor. I mean, it’s a bureau,
    0:29:16 but it applies in politics too. Like there needs to just be a tornado through politics and we need
    0:29:20 to figure, we need to just like lay all this other stuff aside and just figure out what’s really
    0:29:26 pissing everybody off. What’s really affecting our quality of life. A lot of times we’re arguing over
    0:29:30 the symptoms of problems instead of identifying the problems, if that makes any sense. I mean,
    0:29:35 if Jordan Peterson were here, he would tell us about fire and how important that is and burning.
    0:29:39 And like, but it is all the same. Water and fire and ice metaphor. And there would definitely
    0:29:43 be a connection to the Bible and then we would receive a three hour lecture and it would be
    0:29:47 profound. But it’s true, but it’s all true. Like that’s all true. It is all, it’s all a hundred
    0:29:50 percent accurate. Yeah. That’s the crazy thing, but it all ties into that same thing. Like you,
    0:29:56 um, yeah, in politics now, it’s almost like there’s a rule book that you have to follow. And if you,
    0:30:00 you can’t agree with this unless you also agree with that, you know, it’s like,
    0:30:06 and maybe it’s like the places, the way that we receive information about what’s going on in the
    0:30:12 political landscape is always so biased. And it’s like the, well, it’s, it’s contingent upon this
    0:30:18 algorithm, this like algorithmic system that we live under where we’re fed. It’s like, we’re almost fed
    0:30:22 certain subcategories and it’s, and it’s easy to fall into that because you don’t like hearing things
    0:30:27 you disagree with. And so it’s a lot easier to just turn the TV on or go on Facebook and look at
    0:30:30 whatever page posts, things that, you know, you’re going to consistently agree with every day. And
    0:30:35 that’s not going to challenge the way you think in any little way, you know, or, or like expand your
    0:30:41 thinking at all. It’s, it’s easy to just, it’s kind of like a, it’s a cult-like type of thing. It’s like,
    0:30:47 you know, here’s, this is what we all agree with. And if you don’t, then go and get, you know, like,
    0:30:52 but it, it doesn’t, it, we’re far too complicated for it to really work that way.
    0:30:55 Well, this actually relates to one of my favorite things in your conversation with Jordan,
    0:31:02 where you’re just, where you’re just shooting the shit about like, uh, playing live music and he goes
    0:31:11 to Kierkegaard. She’s like Soren Kierkegaard, the philosopher. I love Jordan so much. He just goes
    0:31:18 to Carl Jung and Nietzsche. Um, and there, this idea from Kierkegaard that the crowd is untruth.
    0:31:28 So when you, there’s elements to the crowd that loses the humanity and the honesty of an individual
    0:31:35 that makes up the crowd, because the default incentive of the crowd is to conform to some
    0:31:42 kind of narrative. It’s like, uh, it’s like a distributed system that arrives at a narrative
    0:31:47 and the narrative holds control over that crowd as opposed to the individual humans who are thinking
    0:31:53 for themselves and being honest with their own thoughts and realities and so on. And so that
    0:32:01 he was saying that as a reason from a communication perspective, to speak to individuals in the crowd,
    0:32:07 not to the crowd. So from the performer perspective, the moment you speak to the crowd, you’re speaking
    0:32:12 to the lie that is the crowd according to Soren Kierkegaard. It’s pretty hardcore. Kierkegaard is
    0:32:18 pretty hardcore. Jordan’s pretty hardcore. But that is true. I mean, but specifically in my case,
    0:32:24 I mean, really it applies more than it probably does in a lot of cases with crowds and music,
    0:32:31 you know, talking about Richmond, I wasn’t necessarily even excited that Richmond did as
    0:32:36 well as it did. It was like, in a way it was almost like alarming that it did so well, you know? And so
    0:32:42 those crowds that show up, like maybe they do like my music, but I also think they’re there for
    0:32:48 something. There is something bigger about it. I mean, I, I wish I would have done a better job of
    0:32:54 having people there at shows to capture some of those crowds I had in 24 man. You mean the size,
    0:33:02 the intensity, the intensity, like it was revolutionary almost song of revolution. Yeah. I think a redemption
    0:33:08 song from Bob Marley, like that song, it just connected with people. There’s something there.
    0:33:13 Well, and so many people identified different elements. Like I said, it goes back to when we
    0:33:17 were kind of talking, we first got here, but it was, it was crazy. How it was almost like at the
    0:33:21 beginning with, along with the scrutiny and some of the other things, it was a lot of different people,
    0:33:26 like almost fighting over me or fighting over it. Like, cause it resonated with different,
    0:33:32 it resonated with people who voted differently than each other, which is, which is probably a
    0:33:37 pretty terrifying thing. If you’re, if you’re in the business of keeping people divided and angry at
    0:33:45 each other. So it was, you know, it was a, it was one of the first, one of the only times that I can
    0:33:51 think where there was that, that much of a sense of unity among people who otherwise wouldn’t. I mean,
    0:33:55 like, I mean, I think about nine 11, when I was a kid, I was in fourth grade, but God, man,
    0:34:01 people were just like, people just put everything aside there for a little while. And it was kind of,
    0:34:06 it was kind of like, there’s bigger problems that just aren’t in our face. And if man, if they’re in
    0:34:13 your face for just for a second or two, you realize like it’s, it’s hard to, it’s hard in your mind to
    0:34:17 create a graph. That’s got like all these, but you know, we argue about a lot of these problems,
    0:34:22 but if you were to really look at them, like if you really just stand back and look at all the
    0:34:27 problems we spend time focusing about on the internet versus all the things that are affecting
    0:34:32 us, like that really, and probably at our core even piss us off. It’s, it’s gotta be very
    0:34:37 disproportionate. And like the reason it got the reaction it did is because we all like, no matter
    0:34:41 what it is that we’re upset about or what we think needs to be different in the world or our opinions of
    0:34:46 things or how we’re raised or what our parents taught us. It’s like, I think we all feel a little bit
    0:34:51 out of control in this new society. We all feel like we’re probably, we probably all feel like
    0:34:55 we’re falling into this kind of like corporate power structure where none of us, where we all,
    0:35:02 we all are just robots. We’re all just, we’re not allowed to be ourselves and be human almost,
    0:35:02 you know?
    0:35:09 And there was enough people feeling that. I mean, people on the left feeling like the people in
    0:35:15 power fucking over the working class, people on the right feeling the exact same with different words
    0:35:22 assigned to it, the deep state, you know, fucking over middle America, whatever the narratives are.
    0:35:29 And they’re just, when enough of that is happening, again, with the corporate polite speak, there’s
    0:35:35 something about politeness that’s really dangerous. I feel like there was a lot of politeness in the
    0:35:43 Soviet union underneath that. It’s like Chernobyl, uh, which is this nuclear power plant and melted
    0:35:54 down. Um, I feel like the bureaucracy needs politeness and civility and paperwork to function.
    0:36:01 And then atrocities can happen underneath that. So everybody, people in power with a smile on their
    0:36:10 face can just do horrific things and then give propaganda that look, you know, it’s rainbows and
    0:36:17 sunshine and, and unicorns. Yeah. So people that are rude, I mean, I’m starting to awaken to this a little
    0:36:24 bit. Like you need a little, like Tom way says, uh, I like my Tom little drop of poison. You need some,
    0:36:34 like some poison, some, some swearing, some meanness, some bullshit, some like intensity to shake up a
    0:36:42 system because when it, uh, sort of converges towards this polite bureaucracy, the atrocities can happen
    0:36:48 and hidden away. And what’s probably the most terrifying to me is that that politeness is just
    0:36:53 theatrical. Whereas it, it emulates the respect that we would normally give each other in society
    0:37:00 if we were healthy and functional. What was the process of writing that song? I mean, it really spoke
    0:37:08 to the pain of an anger of millions of people. So there’s magic there. It was a, well, how many,
    0:37:14 how many edits, how many like lines did you write? Were there any lines that you were like
    0:37:19 tormented by haunted by come back? Should I do it this way or this way or that? Do you, do you have a,
    0:37:25 I don’t know. Do you, can you pull tick tock up on this? So if you go to my page, so if you go down
    0:37:32 chickens, go, yeah, go down pre Richmond. You can see the original version of Richmond where I put it up.
    0:37:37 This is so cool to see the evolution. There it is. Okay. So that’s, that’s, if you play that,
    0:37:41 that’s. I have too many unfinished songs. Yeah. Play that, click that and play it.
    0:37:48 I’ve been selling my soul. 724. Oh, wow.
    0:37:50 Bullshit. Wow.
    0:38:00 And if you read through this, it’s so funny. Everybody’s like, you’re about to blow up.
    0:38:13 That’s all I had. So I had, I had just that. You should probably finish this one. Might be real
    0:38:20 popular. That’s a post from a few days later. That was in, that was in July.
    0:38:23 Oh, fuck. That’s so inspiring, man. So that’s what I had.
    0:38:30 That’s so inspiring. That’s what, like a couple of weeks before, uh, you posted the final.
    0:38:34 Well, that’s all I had. Yeah. That’s all I had written at that point. Like that in my mind,
    0:38:38 that’s what, that’s the inspiration for the song was that little bit. And I wrote that just because
    0:38:46 I was on job sites all day and, um, you know, going into like all these just terrible places to work,
    0:38:50 like dealing with different contractors and stuff. You were talking about wanting to go and talk to blue
    0:38:55 collar people and all. It’s like, that’s what I did for work basically for eight years was build
    0:38:59 long-term relationships with people in blue collar. I was in the industrial space. So I would talk
    0:39:04 sometimes I’d talk to 20 different people a day, you know, when you sit in a job site trailer and talk
    0:39:09 to, and talk to a group of dudes, like, and you’re not there with some news camera, you’re just there
    0:39:14 as like a random dude. Like you hear so much about what really goes on behind the scenes of, of the
    0:39:20 structure of what builds, um, what builds this country and keeps it going. And, um, I think that’s
    0:39:25 probably what it was. It was just, uh, it was how I felt, but also how, I guess a lot of other,
    0:39:29 like, you know, it was just, I don’t know. It just seemed like the truth. So.
    0:39:34 So you jotted down even to the details, like in a notebook, like those words.
    0:39:38 No, it’s always just on my phone. I would just keep recording the, I would just keep,
    0:39:46 you know, like, so if you were to go back to Tik TOK, like, and look at any of those original videos,
    0:39:55 um, so like the songs that ended up charting, let’s say, like the ones that were on there that
    0:40:00 charted with Richmond, like this, I’ve got to get sober. So literally, so literally what I did was
    0:40:05 this video, I took it my property. This is my carport where my camper was. And, uh,
    0:40:13 I took this video, I went to some sketchy virus written MP3 to wave file or MP4 to wave file
    0:40:19 transfer thing. I would rip the audio off of this video, put this on Tik TOK and then put that on
    0:40:23 distro kid. And that’s the, that was the song. But basically like this would, this would have been the
    0:40:28 first time I played. I’ve got to get sober all the way through. Like I would just keep writing it and
    0:40:32 working on it and writing it and record myself. And maybe I would record myself 30 times over the
    0:40:36 period of like two months. You know what I mean? Oh, but it’s, when you say writing, you mean in
    0:40:41 your head, not actually typed out or written. Right. It was just mostly just video over and
    0:40:46 over. It’s just videos. I’m just trying to figure out how to make it. Yeah. But that’s what all these,
    0:40:52 all these are like the audio file from all these videos is what’s is what ended up on Spotify and all
    0:40:56 that. You know what I mean? This is, it’s cool to see these videos before you blew up. So this is a
    0:41:03 good song and you’re playing. So what is this at the end? Yeah. Yeah. These were all
    0:41:08 don’t sell your soul brother. This is the best music I’ve heard in a long time.
    0:41:17 That’s a comment before you blew up. Yeah. Yeah. I think I had about 10,000 followers or something.
    0:41:26 What a fucking song. That’s a good one. And you gotta think like this was like, that was my
    0:41:31 that was when I quit drinking. You know what I mean? Like, so that
    0:41:51 that’s coming from, from, from your heart right there. I just imagine the thousands of people you
    0:41:59 helped with that. I don’t know how it’s gonna go. Yeah. But it ain’t gonna happen tonight. So pour
    0:42:14 them down strong. Till I drown. And if I wake up tomorrow. When that sun comes back around. I’ll be
    0:42:26 wishing I was sober. It’s so crazy how those cicadas and stuff come in. Like, I just felt like it was a
    0:42:31 God. I don’t know how to burn. Like, that’s just off my phone. All that stuff’s just there, you know?
    0:43:01 That’s a genius of a song. That’s genius, brother. That’s genius.
    0:43:03 It’s just crazy to think about.
    0:43:13 Yeah. And what’s this one right before? What is this? Oh, yeah. Yeah. So that’s like the private.
    0:43:22 And this is a nice recording. Got it. Yeah. So this video got uploaded and then Draven from Radio WV
    0:43:29 would have gotten ahold of me in between this and that. He watched this and was like, dude, you got,
    0:43:33 he said, we got to record that one. And that like, so I didn’t have it all. I just had whatever was in
    0:43:38 that video is all I had written. It was, I think it was just the chorus in the first verse. Draven
    0:43:43 saw that video. And said, we got to do this one. Reach out to me to record. And he’s like, yeah,
    0:43:48 he’s like, no, we got to do that one. And I was like, dude, that’s all I got. Tell me about that guy.
    0:43:53 Draven. He probably is like, you know, he’s probably like my best friend now. We,
    0:43:57 we hit it off with this and we’re like, we’re like brothers now, I guess.
    0:44:01 Can you talk about like what he’s doing for country, for music in general, for country music,
    0:44:07 for discovering talent, for like, I mean, he’s clearly sees something in people.
    0:44:12 Yeah. He’s just this, he’s a little bit younger than I am. And he’s, he wrote music and played,
    0:44:16 and he’s got some of his, if you look up Draven Rife, he’s going to kill me for even saying this,
    0:44:21 but he’s got some pretty, dude, he can, if he was like a pop singer, he would be like,
    0:44:28 he can write the most catchy stuff ever. Um, let’s go. Yeah. So click on like, I don’t know,
    0:44:32 like, yeah, there you go. All right. That’s him. Yeah.
    0:44:41 Where’s this from? Five years ago.
    0:44:51 I was feeling on my way. I was 10 years old walking underneath the blanket of West Virginia snow.
    0:45:01 Then I walked right by no trespass. I need a grass look green across property line. Bye. Bye. Bye.
    0:45:08 You know, he could probably do, if he does like, he could, he could probably be real famous.
    0:45:12 Well, he’s got a certain look that dude. We’ll sit there and he’ll just like,
    0:45:16 we’ll just be sitting there at like two in the morning and he’ll just all of a sudden do this
    0:45:20 little thing. And he’s got like the most amazing first part of this like song or we just started
    0:45:25 to co-write together, like in the last few months. So I’m really excited for that. But if you go to
    0:45:30 his, this is really funny too. I’m sorry, Draven. I love you, man. So go to videos and go to oldest
    0:45:36 first. This is what’s so awesome about Draven. He was originally working for this lady who was trying
    0:45:40 to develop different types of hair care products, but he thought the market was too saturated. So he was
    0:45:49 going to get into beard oil. So he created Radio WV as like a fake plug page for his burly boy beard
    0:45:54 brand he was working with. So like, like if you look at, um, yeah, like that very first video. Yeah.
    0:46:00 It’s like, it’s got all his beard products. And if you look, there’s a, there’s multiple ones like
    0:46:05 that. So he started it just to do this beard thing with, and then like, I don’t know, he just kind of
    0:46:10 felt called to like, keep going with it. And it, and it just sort of naturally progressed.
    0:46:15 That too is inspiring. Like you start out one way and then you discover something real special. I mean,
    0:46:22 he’s got a, he’s got an eye for how to bring out, I don’t know what it is. Like the, both the audio
    0:46:27 side and the video side, how to bring out the best. He says, he just wants it to sound like the way he
    0:46:31 likes hearing it, which kind of makes sense. You know, like it’s kind of in the same way talking
    0:46:35 about when we were talking about setting the cameras up and a professional would tell you,
    0:46:38 you needed three lights. And you’re like, well, I think it would work with the, he’s just kind of
    0:46:43 like, well, it’ll just work like this. And do it in a way where he likes it. Yeah. Just do it for
    0:46:47 yourself. He does it cause he loves it. And that, and you can see it shows, you know, you can see it
    0:46:51 in there. Um, and there’s some good talent. Like you were showing me this new lady, Gabriel. Yeah.
    0:46:56 She’s got it, but not a lot of people would, uh, record her doing that song. But he’s like,
    0:46:59 I don’t know. It just was different. I just thought people ought to hear it, but he’s man. It was a
    0:47:05 blessing that he came along when he did. It was like, um, it really changed both of our lives.
    0:47:12 We’ve got to talk about that. So you posted the, the song Richmond North of Richmond on August 8th,
    0:47:19 2023. I remember I was at work that day when it went up. Yeah. So it blew the fuck up straight to
    0:47:27 number one on the charts, tens of millions of views and listens. Uh, and a few days later on August 17th,
    0:47:34 he made a post that I thought was pretty gangster. It was beautiful and gangster. Uh, so one, one of
    0:47:40 the things he said is it’s been difficult as I browsed through the 50,000 plus messages and emails I’ve
    0:47:45 received in the last week, the stories that have been shared, paint a brutally honest picture,
    0:47:51 suicide, addiction, unemployment, anxiety, depression, hopelessness, and the list goes on.
    0:47:58 And then you went on to write people in the music industry. Give me blank stares when I brush off
    0:48:05 $8 million offers. I don’t want six tour buses, 15 tractor trailers, and a jet. I don’t want to play
    0:48:12 stadium shows. I don’t want to be in the spotlight. I wrote the music I wrote because I was suffering with
    0:48:17 mental health and depression. These songs have connected with millions of people on such a deep
    0:48:25 level because they’ve been sung by someone feeling the words in the very moment they were being sung.
    0:48:32 No editing, no agent, no bullshit, just some idiot and his guitar. The style of music that we should
    0:48:39 have never gotten away from in the first place. So huge props for that, for walking away from lucrative
    0:48:44 multimillion dollar record deals. And I’m sure the money that was just coming your way,
    0:48:52 huge props, you know, moments happen where, you know, the world tests you and integrity
    0:49:00 is what you do in those moments. So huge props for that. What was your philosophy? What was your
    0:49:01 thinking behind that?
    0:49:05 It was all those messages I got. I mean, you can see it in the comment sections of a lot of the videos
    0:49:11 after everything happened, but people just like felt this spark, like, like, wow, like maybe we
    0:49:16 actually have a chance to like, maybe we actually do have some kind of power, you know, like those
    0:49:22 people put that song there, nobody else. And like gave me the opportunity to make, even without sign
    0:49:27 anything, I was still able to make millions of dollars and have financial freedom. And like, I just,
    0:49:36 I just felt like, I felt like if I was going to do anything like that, that I’d be, I’d be betraying,
    0:49:42 like I would be taking those people and, and almost betraying them somehow, you know, like, uh,
    0:49:49 like they, I hate the big machine just like everybody else. And I, the last thing I’d want to do is be,
    0:49:55 is ever supported or be a part of it. Like, I want to watch it crash and burn, you know, like,
    0:50:01 see, this is the really important thing is whether it was betrayal or not, we’ll never know,
    0:50:06 but you felt like that it was. And to have the integrity to walk away from the bag of money
    0:50:13 when you felt that way, that’s fucking epic.
    0:50:19 It was also, you got to think a couple of months before this, like, of course I had, you know, I had a wife
    0:50:23 and kids that I loved and like, I had a lot of really important things to live for, but I didn’t have a
    0:50:29 whole lot to lose. Like, like none of this was even really real. Like it, I didn’t care about that.
    0:50:33 Like, I didn’t care to lose this just as quick as I got it. Like this didn’t, this was, this didn’t mean
    0:50:39 anything to me. It just meant something to me that like, that I could do something for like, you know,
    0:50:45 you, it’s like, even if I’m not smart enough to figure out how to fix some of my own problems in
    0:50:49 my life, the fact that I felt like I could help fix somebody else is like, that meant a hell of a lot
    0:50:54 more to me than any. That’s what I didn’t want to lose. I didn’t want to lose those people’s trust or
    0:51:00 like feel, you know what I mean? Like, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And so I’ve just tried to make every decision
    0:51:05 around like as best as I can, like what I think the right thing is to do and who knows what the hell the
    0:51:10 right thing is to do. But I just try to follow, you know, we all have that little voice in us like
    0:51:16 that. We all have some what, and, and I think sometimes we mask, it’s hard for us to listen to
    0:51:22 that little voice, whether, whether it’s like, you know, whether it’s our gluttony or our lust or our,
    0:51:31 or our, you know, we, we numb ourselves with medications or with alcohol or we, we scroll on
    0:51:36 YouTube for four hours a night. And instead of, cause we don’t want to listen to our conscience,
    0:51:40 but there is this like very intelligent discerning thing inside of us. It’s able to tell us what’s
    0:51:47 right and wrong. And it’s, it’s a spiritual thing, I guess. And I just try to, I just try to listen to
    0:51:51 that when I can. I don’t know. I just still feel like I haven’t done enough. I think you, I think you
    0:51:58 did a lot. I think you did a lot. I think you’re an inspiration. You’ve helped a huge number of people
    0:52:03 and you’re also an inspiration to the other side of it, which is the artists and just to humans to
    0:52:12 have integrity. I don’t think people realize how much of a test of integrity, fame, money,
    0:52:21 you know, power also is, you know, uh, Rogan and I talk about this quite a bit. We’ll get to see,
    0:52:26 I mean, Joe, especially, but I haven’t, I’ve had a bit of the same. You get to
    0:52:35 see people become famous and you get to see how they deal with that. And it’s not easy. A lot of
    0:52:42 people will sell themselves a bit, sell the soul a bit, give away a bit of their integrity of the
    0:52:48 spirit that made them who they are. You get caught up in the wave of it, you know? And so to, to keep
    0:52:53 holding onto that, that’s a powerful thing. That’s a really, that’s all I got though. You
    0:52:59 know, when you lose that, what the hell are you like? And you see it, like you see these celebrity
    0:53:04 people that just like fall off the, they fall off this, you know, they go off the deep end. It’s like,
    0:53:10 you got to have, you have to have something in your life to, and to keep you centered and to keep you,
    0:53:15 um, you know, your whole perception of reality and like your just existence in reality as all
    0:53:21 contention upon this sort of like the center that you exist in. And you have to, if you don’t have
    0:53:25 that, then you’re just flying through space, through space. I mean, we’re all just riding on this rock
    0:53:32 that’s going, who knows how fast. You said something, uh, I think to Jocko that I really liked
    0:53:36 everything that has purpose behind it comes with risk.
    0:53:41 So there in that moment, I mean, you’re taking a hell of a risk.
    0:53:46 I was terrified. I talked about this a little bit with him too, but I was terrified to even put the
    0:53:50 song out. Like I knew I was going to be the subject of scrutiny and judgment. And I knew people were
    0:53:55 going to like, you know, I kind of knew all that was going to happen. I was like going back to that,
    0:54:02 talking about crowds, like to stand in front of thousands of people and everybody be in some sense
    0:54:09 unity. Like a lot of times when I end the shows, I’ll always, I’ll always end with this statement
    0:54:16 that just says, you know, no matter what, like no matter how you feel when you go online, you know,
    0:54:23 everyone feels so small and insignificant and, and powerless. But I just say, no matter how they make
    0:54:28 you feel online or when you turn on the TV or when you look at polling numbers or whatever, like when you
    0:54:36 just look at all this trash that we digest every day, like you’re, there’s always, there will always be
    0:54:42 more of us than them and, and all that. And, but like to see the, like, just to see the light in people’s
    0:54:48 eyes when you say that, but the truth is like, and it’s like, who is us and who is them? And it’s like, us just
    0:54:57 represents humanity and like, and, and all the things we talked about so far, like just, you know, the fire and the
    0:55:03 chaos and, but also the, like the love and just, just life. Life is just such a crazy, complicated, beautiful,
    0:55:11 disastrous thing. And then them is like, it is, it’s the power structure. It’s the, it’s that same terrible side of us
    0:55:18 that created things like the Soviet union and, and, and is ultimately what’s created this monster, this like monster
    0:55:23 that we all live under today, which now is not just, doesn’t just exist within the confines of the Soviet union, but
    0:55:31 seems to almost be a global epidemic. And then that song became the rebel call against that,
    0:55:36 against the power structures that creates that. Yeah. It’s like, how much fire am I willing to play
    0:55:41 with? Cause I know at some point I am going to get burned from it. I just pray a lot that God,
    0:55:46 I don’t have a lot of self-worth in myself anyway. So I don’t really care what they say or do to me,
    0:55:52 or I don’t care. Like, I don’t even care if I die, whatever, just don’t let, just, just protect the
    0:55:57 people I love is all, that’s all I ask of God. I have this dream of just creating this parallel
    0:56:02 system that sits beside all of these stupid systems that we live under that are all sort of engulfed in
    0:56:08 this, this thing that we talked about at the beginning, this, this type of structure, you know,
    0:56:14 we’re none of us where we’re all just robots. And it’s like, if we hate, you know, if we hate the
    0:56:19 way music is and all these artists are complaining about the way the venues are monopolized and the
    0:56:23 ticket sales are monopolized and let’s just go find other places to play music. Cause there’s so many
    0:56:28 people hungry for music and places that don’t ever get it. And if you look at it, there’s so many
    0:56:33 passionate people that are fighting all these different causes, like, like just in food, it’s the
    0:56:38 word they use for bait for more or less starvation. It’s a more polite, it’s called food insecurity.
    0:56:42 But if you look up just in Virginia, just where I live in Virginia, in the rural areas, how much food
    0:56:50 insecurity there is and how many empty vacant farms there are. It’s like, this is an obvious problem
    0:56:54 that we should be on Twitter talking about nonstop. Like, this is like, everyone has to eat, you know,
    0:56:59 it don’t matter what you vote for or what, like what you look like or any of that crap you can,
    0:57:07 you know, like, so like, let’s just like, why, why are we living in a country where we have, why are we
    0:57:12 living in a country where half of us are obese and eating shit food and don’t know any better? And then
    0:57:16 the other half of us don’t have like how just, it’s just, it’s lack of leadership that’s caused
    0:57:22 dysfunction. And so if we’re tired of that, then, then let’s just fix it. Like, we don’t need anybody’s
    0:57:26 permission. Like, that’s the whole beauty. Like, that’s the whole beauty of what America is, is like,
    0:57:31 we don’t, we don’t need some greasy haired corporate schmuck to give us permission to go
    0:57:35 fix all these things that are wrong. Let’s just go do it. And if they don’t like it, fuck them,
    0:57:44 you know, in all domains of life from, from food to the music industry, honestly, to education,
    0:57:54 also to government itself, all of it. And that, you know, your music is also just the soundtrack to
    0:58:03 that spirit that makes America great of just constantly trying to revitalize itself. When the
    0:58:08 bullshit piles up a little too high, there’s that revolutionary spirit that says like, we need to
    0:58:13 fix this shit. And, and that inspiration that created this country was from years of people
    0:58:18 living under tyranny. Like we forget the story of the people who really created this country. Like,
    0:58:23 it’s funny. I, one of the statements I made at the very beginning, they got taken way out of context,
    0:58:28 but I wasn’t in a position to like, even begin to have a conversation about, as I made this comment
    0:58:34 early on at one of the shows about, about how, about how our diversity is a strength. But that term
    0:58:38 has been hijacked now to mean something a lot different than what it really means. But it’s
    0:58:42 like, think about how many different people came together just at the founding of this country. Like
    0:58:47 people who spoke different languages, different cultures, religions, ways of thinking, so many
    0:58:51 different people came together to even create this place now. And like, we’ve just forgotten about all
    0:58:57 that. They didn’t all come here because they wanted to ride on some miserable boat ride and risk their
    0:59:01 whole lives to go to live in some crazy jungle, essentially. They had no structure, like no
    0:59:07 infrastructure, no medicine, no, like they didn’t come here for like some glorified camping trip. It’s
    0:59:12 because they were tired of like generations of being persecuted and living under tyranny and not
    0:59:16 being allowed to practice there. You know, it’s not like they wanted freedom of religion and they didn’t
    0:59:19 want separation of church and state because they were a bunch of goody two shoes and they love going to
    0:59:23 church every Sunday. It’s because they weren’t allowed to believe in what they believed in because
    0:59:27 some asshole King or some hierarchy told them they couldn’t and they were just tired of it.
    0:59:31 That’s what we’re losing now. It’s like, we’ve forgotten that we’re those people like the same
    0:59:37 structures that have plagued this country are their multinational corporations and their, and it’s just
    0:59:41 the ideology behind them and their, and their structure is what the problem is.
    0:59:50 Yeah. I mean, it’s a multinational corporations, it’s nation states that, uh, are deeply corrupt and are
    0:59:59 authoritarian and ultimately abused power and yes, create, uh, elements of tyranny. And from that,
    1:00:08 the, the human spirit rises, uh, like I said, with, with, with songs like the ones you write or at the
    1:00:14 founding in this country, you know, that’s why all this diverse outcasts come together and write
    1:00:23 something as crazy as all men are created equal. What a gangster line. I guess not an easy thing to take
    1:00:29 a lot of that stuff for granted now, but that’s not an easy thing to come up with. That’s a really gutsy
    1:00:39 thing to, to see, to see the value in all people equally. And of course they also were, uh, suffering from
    1:00:48 delusion, you know, they didn’t see black people as equal. They didn’t see women as equal, but even that
    1:00:53 first leap of like all men are created equal, that’s like a gigantic fuck you to the past.
    1:00:59 Taking that leap forward really took a lot in an age and a time when, when it probably sounded
    1:01:03 correct. And it’s not like they just made a statement and put it on Twitter. Like they,
    1:01:10 they like, think about how much, just think about the insanity. Like I can’t even conceptualize the
    1:01:16 insanity of what took place from the time that like, even from the revolutionary war until now to try to
    1:01:21 preserve that idea, you know, so like so much has happened and so much sacrifice has been made in just
    1:01:27 so many hours of labor and thought and intensity. Even in the 20th century has got two world wars.
    1:01:33 And, uh, you know, especially in the second world war, the United States played a very crucial role
    1:01:40 and there was a lot of ideological, like battle of ideas going on at that time of the role of war
    1:01:49 and peace of the role of the United States as the, um, as the center place for the ideal of human freedom
    1:01:56 and human rights. Yeah. We continue to innovate. So I’d love to get back to talking to blue collar
    1:02:01 people. You mentioned, um, those are some of my favorite people. So it was actually really cool to
    1:02:09 find out that for many years of your life, basically the way you made a living is talking to blue collar
    1:02:15 people and getting their story. So I’m traveling across the world for a bit, but of course the world
    1:02:23 that I love the most and I’m most curious about is the different subcultures and towns of the United
    1:02:31 States. So I, I took a road trip across the U S in my early twenties for, for several months. And that was like
    1:02:40 a transformative experience for me. And that’s something, um, one of the luxuries I have is to, to, to have the
    1:02:46 freedom to do whatever the hell I want now. And so, uh, I want to take a road trip across the United States for
    1:02:53 several months. And one of the things I wanted to do is to just, to, to talk to, to people in, in small
    1:03:00 towns and middle America. I don’t know what words to put on it, but to talk to the very people that you
    1:03:11 talked about that, that, uh, you know, construction workers, plumbers, waitresses, oil rig workers, just
    1:03:21 people that do something real people that are real, that don’t make much money that struggle,
    1:03:29 but have a, as you talked about, have like a richness to them. That’s not often revealed. That’s not often
    1:03:35 talked about. So maybe can you speak to that, to your, to your time with blue collar folk?
    1:03:40 When I got all those messages at the, we were talking about early on, earlier in this, like so
    1:03:46 many of them. And even now it’s even since I, even like in the last couple of days, I’ve gotten some
    1:03:53 where they start with, Hey, I’m a nobody, but like, that’s how a lot of those start, you know, like the
    1:03:58 nobodies of the world, if you want to call them like that’s, it’s, it’s frustrating that the people who
    1:04:08 literally have, have, have built and preserve and maintain the structure of society that we all
    1:04:14 comfortably live in, those people have the least amount of representation. They’re ignored just
    1:04:20 because of the way the social hierarchy exists, but the, some of the most dimwitted, irrelevant,
    1:04:28 terrible people are put here and are idolized and spotlighted and they’re all over television and
    1:04:33 they’re all over the internet. And we act like they’re, like they’re Kings and Queens and like
    1:04:40 that they’re royalty. And then all these people who do jobs that most of us will be too tariff, either,
    1:04:48 either wouldn’t have the, even the ability to do, we’d be like, like how many people are going to go
    1:04:53 underwater and weld. But if we didn’t have underwater welders, like one of my best friends,
    1:04:57 whose name is also Jocko, funny enough, the dude worked 70, 80 hours every week. He’s on the
    1:05:04 Chesapeake Bay, uh, tunnel job now, but the dude’s gotten up on, gotten on heights that I couldn’t get
    1:05:09 on. He’s went, he’s went underground places. I wouldn’t go. And nobody will ever know, like nobody
    1:05:14 even knows those people’s stories or what they went through or like the kind of lives they lived in.
    1:05:18 And, and they’re the, they’re like the, the people who create the fabric of society and
    1:05:23 even the waitresses and the waiters and like all these factory jobs that I worked in, all those
    1:05:27 people, like the talk about the craziest place I ever worked. And the craziest people ever met was
    1:05:32 this little place called perfect air and Marion, North Carolina. And it was this commercial air
    1:05:36 conditioning factory, which is I think closed now, but they didn’t pay very well. And so everyone they
    1:05:43 hired was either people that had criminal backgrounds who couldn’t get jobs elsewhere or idiots who dropped out of
    1:05:48 and couldn’t work elsewhere like me. And so I was 18 years old working in this place with people who
    1:05:53 are mostly in their fifties and sixties, but you want to talk about being exposed to just a whole
    1:05:58 nother world of people, like, and just the stories and the, just those people are far more interesting
    1:06:03 than, than many of the people that we consider to be celebrities. Like most people who are celebrities
    1:06:07 are just pretty boring and airheaded and don’t really even know what real life is about. They’re pretty
    1:06:11 unrelatable to the rest of the world. And so it would be really cool. I mean, that’s the whole reason
    1:06:14 that I want to go out and do these shows in places that haven’t had music in them in 10 years,
    1:06:19 because those people like that is America to me, you know, how many people in Pittsburgh have been
    1:06:24 an hour outside of Pittsburgh. And even in Virginia, if you lived in Northern Virginia and you drive two
    1:06:29 and a half hours Southwest, you’re in a whole nother planet, like the people, the accents, the culture.
    1:06:35 And so I feel driven in the same way. Like I would love to, I would love to find a way to,
    1:06:41 to try to bridge that cultural gap, to make those people relevant and to make, because they are like
    1:06:45 some of the most, and like, and it’s funny because we emulate a lot of those people, like, you know,
    1:06:51 modern country music is a bunch of people emulating those people, you know?
    1:06:58 And there’s also like, uh, I love people that have a skill and become masters of that skill also.
    1:07:05 So that element is also there, even if it’s like insanely difficult work, like being a minor, like there’s
    1:07:11 skill to that. There’s stories there. There’s like what it takes to do that. So, I mean, some of my
    1:07:17 favorite humans are engineers and all they do is solve really hard problems. So they develop, I mean,
    1:07:19 it’s a pain in the ass job. Yeah.
    1:07:26 Anything in the factories is extremely difficult, but that you learn so much about what it takes to solve
    1:07:34 intricate, like nuanced problems in the physical world. So coal mining, oil rigs, like you mentioned,
    1:07:39 welding, that’s a fascinating line of work. And, and those are trades that are in many cases dying
    1:07:45 because we don’t, because they aren’t popular in culture anymore for everything from agricultural to
    1:07:50 plumbing and electrical. It’s like, those are all areas. I think if you were to go out and talk to some
    1:07:56 of those people and shed light on it, it would like, you could change the, you could change the
    1:08:01 entire landscape in America of how, of how it’s perceived and like, and make it cool, you know?
    1:08:06 Yeah. So thank you for what you’re doing on that front. I want to say, I wrote it down. Please,
    1:08:12 if you know people that would be willing to talk, reach out to me. A good way to do that is
    1:08:14 lexfriedman.com slash contact.
    1:08:19 This was another one of the things early on that I had an idea about, and I thought was getting done and
    1:08:26 it wasn’t that I, I’ve got to go back and try to figure out is doing prison shows and, uh, doing
    1:08:33 rehab shows and all that. But I am really intrigued with like going into those places and trying to
    1:08:41 immerse myself and just the, the mental state that those people are in. And like, it’s not talked about
    1:08:49 a whole lot, but also people who get out ex-convicts. I mean, that, that’s a hard life. That’s just a
    1:08:51 hard life to try to reintegrate back into society.
    1:08:57 Yeah. And a lot of those people at Perfect Air that I worked with, they almost all were in some
    1:09:02 form of legal trouble. Like there was a lady that worked on the assembly line, Maasai, me named Denise
    1:09:08 and, uh, her and her husband had been manufacturing methamphetamine and he took the fall for most of it.
    1:09:13 She only had to go on probation. He was still in prison, but man, like Denise was a very sweet lady.
    1:09:19 And like, aside from the meth manufacturing, like she was like great, you know, like, and just such a
    1:09:24 character, like in such a good way. And so it’s like, yeah, just Denise lexfreeman.com.
    1:09:34 Let’s talk. I mean, yeah, you know, like both, both sort of the plumbers and the coal miners and, uh,
    1:09:43 Denise with the old meth habits. I mean, they’re walking the line of like, you know, surviving is
    1:09:51 hard. Yeah. So you have to do a real hard job. And then you also have to live life, which is in
    1:10:00 general hard, you know, divorce kids, people die, you lose like the medical issues and that, that can
    1:10:06 destroy you completely. All of a sudden something happens. You can’t afford it. The, the, the insurance
    1:10:13 system destroys people, all of that. So you have to somehow navigate life while working your ass off
    1:10:20 and a real hard job. And those people, they have stories. That’s a real pain. And from that pain,
    1:10:27 from that anger, that’s where, uh, Richmond, North of Richmond, that was that, that you could just feel
    1:10:34 their pain come through with that song and with your other work. So that like, there is a landscape of
    1:10:41 suffering. Yeah. It doesn’t have to be that. We don’t all have to be that decentralized either.
    1:10:45 Like if all, if there is that much commonality among people, which I do believe there is
    1:10:52 like just innately in suffering and, and, and, and yeah, like there’s a guy, there’s a guy in West
    1:10:57 Virginia that I talked to that he’s got a piece of property beside a mine that he was interested in
    1:11:03 selling. But the reason he’s, he’s got this dream of opening a, um, like putting some cabins there and
    1:11:07 renting them out for people to come Airbnb. He works at Lowe’s full time, but he’s, his son’s got this,
    1:11:12 his son’s like 19 and has got this heart surgery he’s got to have. And so he’s trying to sell the
    1:11:17 place for that. And just like, just that guy and all, and all you’d ever see him as is the guy that
    1:11:23 works at Lowe’s like pulling lumber or whatever, but he’s got this very insanely complex life.
    1:11:26 He’s trying to manage. He doesn’t want to lose his son. Like he’s just going to sell everything.
    1:11:31 And like at one point in time, maybe the church served that role of like when people really fell
    1:11:35 off track and they didn’t have a support system and they were like on this tiny boat out in the ocean,
    1:11:39 and they figured out some kind of way to rally it. In my mind, that’s like the dream of all this.
    1:11:45 If I, if I die and there’s any like legacy left or anything done, it’s like finding a way to take
    1:11:50 all the people that fill that role and organizing them and empowering them and protecting them.
    1:11:54 It’s rebuilding the community, but in a real way, not in like this fairytale bullshit.
    1:11:58 Everybody’s going to love each other and we’re all just going to be one big happy family. Like
    1:12:01 everybody’s still going to get mad and hate each other in certain ways. And
    1:12:06 that’s good. Like we, we need those tornadoes. Like you said, we need people pissed off and angry
    1:12:11 and we need people to feel like they can be angry and open about things that are wrong. Like people
    1:12:14 should be able to speak their mind and we shouldn’t all just kiss each other’s ass. And we shouldn’t
    1:12:19 all just pretend to be overly polite and say, Hey Debbie, you have a good weekend. Like you said,
    1:12:24 like we need all this controversy and this turmoil. And like, we need the hell of what that side that,
    1:12:28 that the internet brings out in people, but it just needs to be in real life. And it needs to be in a way
    1:12:33 where we’re all like, we all are at least chasing the same common goal, which is probably that we
    1:12:38 don’t want to starve and we want to have decent health. And, and we want to be able to like provide
    1:12:42 a decent life for our kids, or at least we just don’t, you know, we just want to live a decent life.
    1:12:51 Like, um, I think it’s somehow that, that fixes like, that fixes what you describe, like the people
    1:12:56 who, who fall in despair and are isolated and get it, it’s a terrifying world to live in.
    1:13:00 It’s that principle. Again, this is, I need a phone, a friend thing where we can just keep calling
    1:13:05 Jordan for all these things. But like he explains, there’s this principle in the Bible about, about
    1:13:09 those who, about the more you have, the more you’ll receive. And the less you have, the less you’ll,
    1:13:14 the less you’ll receive kind of a thing. And it’s a, it’s just a universal law in society where
    1:13:19 it seems like the lower you get to the bottom, it’s almost like the more, like the less resources you
    1:13:24 have available and the less, the less friends you have. And it’s like, you just, the, the further
    1:13:29 you go snowballs into where it’s like people just hit rock bottom. And then, and then what it’s like,
    1:13:33 when you get out of prison, what do you, what are you supposed to do? Or when you’re a veteran with
    1:13:37 mental health, like, what are you supposed to do? Like, in my mind, that’s what the church is supposed
    1:13:42 to be there for is like, but obviously it doesn’t fill that role anymore.
    1:13:50 To some people, at least religion does a little bit. It gives, uh, it’s at least a foundation of
    1:13:56 community, a foundation of hope for people. And when they’re really struggling.
    1:14:03 Yeah. You got thousands of messages, like you talked about from people, you gotten to talk
    1:14:08 to thousands of people about their pain through your work, through your music. You’ve been an
    1:14:14 inspiration to those people to find a way out of the pain. Can you tell the full story of your own
    1:14:24 lowest point before, before all of this, before the, before the music, before you blew up, uh,
    1:14:32 can you take me through the story of the depression, the drinking, and just the roughest times in your
    1:14:39 life? It’s sometimes it’s not even, you know, it’s funny, but it’s almost not even where you’re at in
    1:14:44 life. It’s where you perceive yourself at in life and what your, what your goals are moving forward.
    1:14:51 And I think like, you know, I was, I dropped out of high school at 17, basically ran away from
    1:14:56 home. I just, I couldn’t, I have always had this authority problem. And so I just didn’t want to
    1:15:01 listen to my parents. I didn’t want to go to college. I just wanted to go moving to the mountains.
    1:15:06 I was running away from responsibility, I guess, is what I was doing, you know? And so got this girl
    1:15:13 pregnant, had my first kid when I was 18 or just about to turn 19. And like I said, I’m working in an air
    1:15:18 conditioning factory with a bunch of convicted felons. And so from there, everything was just
    1:15:22 reactionary. I never really had a plan. I would jump from job to job, just like most everybody else.
    1:15:27 I don’t know. I just, I just got to a point where I guess I just quit believing in myself. And I knew
    1:15:33 that I wasn’t doing, I just knew I wasn’t doing, I wasn’t feeling my purpose and I wasn’t being the
    1:15:38 best version of myself I could be. And so the alternative to like facing yourself in the mirror and accepting
    1:15:45 that, that I’m not a shitty person. I’ve just let myself fall. You know, it’s like, it’s so hard to
    1:15:52 accept when you’ve had that fall that it’s just easier to just, just to get drunk and, you know,
    1:15:58 just do the bare minimum you can to keep everything sort of kind of moving along. But you don’t really
    1:16:01 care if you live or die. You don’t, you don’t really care about much anything like your whole,
    1:16:05 you know, I don’t know. Life is just so beautiful when you’re a child, you’re so imaginative and
    1:16:09 exploratory and you’re learning all these things and you just, you just can’t wait to be an adult
    1:16:15 because you’re just going to go out and do all these incredible, you know, and then you face the
    1:16:20 reality of it. Yeah. And the pressure and the fear of failure. Like I think maybe even my own fear of
    1:16:25 failure is what drew is what drove me. And, uh, but yeah, you just, and you, you think negatively
    1:16:30 about yourself for so many days and weeks and months and you like, you don’t even have a real
    1:16:35 self-awareness of like what you’re doing or how destructive you’ve become, but you always have
    1:16:42 that, that discernment in you that like, that conscious, you know, that little voice in your,
    1:16:48 and your spirit that is letting you know you’re messing up. You know, I was almost like, you know,
    1:16:53 I was wrestling with myself, you know? And so I don’t know. I just got to a point where it was just
    1:17:05 like, yeah, just, just a very, just a very overwhelming sense of numbness. Like, like,
    1:17:10 I don’t like nothing really, nothing that mattered before really matters anymore. Like, I guess
    1:17:14 that’s, that’s probably to me, the definition of depression is when all the things you love and
    1:17:20 care about are just meaningless and you can’t find, you really can’t find meaning or purpose
    1:17:29 or excitement in anything, you know? Like, like, I think, especially with men that commit suicide,
    1:17:36 it’s a, it’s a prolonged period of that. It’s not like they just wake up one day and they have a
    1:17:41 bad day and they kill themselves. It’s like you self-reflect negatively about yourself and your
    1:17:45 life and you don’t do the things that you’re supposed to do every day for a long enough period of time.
    1:17:54 And it’s like, pretty soon you’ve built this whole mountain of, of, of, of mismanaged,
    1:18:01 neglected stuff, for lack of a better word, like this mountain that you have to climb back up in
    1:18:06 order to fix all these things that you should have been doing all along. And then the, and then on
    1:18:10 the other side of it, it’s like, well, I could just die. Like, that seems a lot, like, it’s almost
    1:18:15 like for, I think from a man’s perspective, maybe the friends that I’ve had that I’ve lost,
    1:18:20 it seems like a lot of times you think, you know, you’d never see it coming, you know? Like, I don’t
    1:18:24 know, maybe that’s a general thing with, it seems like a lot of times men mask that better and you
    1:18:31 don’t pick up on it as much. But, um, I think it’s like, you just dig yourself into a point to where
    1:18:36 it’s like, you have a mountain of responsibility in front of you that you haven’t faced that you
    1:18:41 don’t know how to face. And you ha you haven’t been able to do so for a long time, but there’s
    1:18:47 this really easy detour and it’s just, you know, putting your big toe on the trigger. And it’s like,
    1:18:50 which one of those are, I don’t know, like they’re both seen, but at that point, your,
    1:18:58 your perception of reality is so distorted that like, you don’t, all the things that can,
    1:19:04 that would normally compel you to, to move along, like your, like love and joy and like your,
    1:19:11 your draw, you know, your drive to, to be that none of that really, it’s not there for you to even
    1:19:16 contemplate. If that makes sense. It’s like that part is almost like, at least for a little while
    1:19:24 invisible and all you see is fear and responsibility. And just this, like I said, I just, I just envision
    1:19:28 it like a mountain that you don’t, you don’t really know if you’re even able to climb. And then the other
    1:19:36 option is just, so I, I think that’s probably where, that’s probably where a lot of people go. And that’s
    1:19:42 probably where I was, was just like, you know? Yeah. I mean, there is the, it’s not just
    1:19:49 responsibilities to the immensity of it, the mountain. And I think you’re accurately describing
    1:19:54 how it happens, which is gradually. Yeah. Seeing yourself in a negative light over time
    1:20:05 slowly suffocates you. And then the burden of the responsibility that piles up. And unfortunately,
    1:20:13 of course, one of the ways out is to pull the trigger. And the other way out is the Jordan
    1:20:21 Peterson back to Jordan, sort of one gradual step at a time, like make your bed. It’s like,
    1:20:27 start climbing out. Like the responsibilities before you, one at a time, every single day,
    1:20:31 just climbing out and have faith that it will work out.
    1:20:37 That was what was so powerful for me about just beginning to open my mind back up to reading just
    1:20:41 a little bit of stuff, like a little bit of stuff from the new Testament that Jesus said and some
    1:20:48 different perspectives and teachings. But like, you know, an apostle would be in prison, like basically
    1:20:54 being tortured and facing death, but like just overjoyed in writing about talking about, it’s all
    1:20:58 about your perspective of things. Like I said, like, that’s why I never could understand why,
    1:21:04 you know, like celebrities or professional, I mean, giving one example of many, like a Kurt Cobain
    1:21:10 type scenario where you have a guy that’s just immensely talented, just will always be loved by plenty of
    1:21:13 people. Like I never could understand why that guy.
    1:21:22 There’s a ocean of quiet suffering in, uh, in a lot of, and I think it is disproportionately in men,
    1:21:28 in a lot of men and they hide it. Well, that’s why blue collar workers have such a high suicide rate
    1:21:33 and all to, and why it is so important to talk to those people. And yeah, it’s a, no, you could see
    1:21:40 it in the eyes and there, there, there is, there, there is a lot of pain there without like trying to
    1:21:45 get, without like trying to open up too many doors. I think that’s probably the best way I would describe
    1:21:52 it is just a series of really, there’s a series of negligent decisions and also just misperceptions.
    1:21:57 You know, like I think this was an Andrew Huberman thing where he talks about medications and how
    1:22:05 it’s a lot more likely for somebody to keep their dog on their medication schedule, but not themselves.
    1:22:11 You know, you love your dog and your dog, like it’s just this great little thing. And you just, you don’t see
    1:22:19 the flaws and the faults and the sin and the disgust in your dog that you do yourself. So it’s much more
    1:22:23 likely for people to make sure their dog has their medication every day. But like, there’s this alarming
    1:22:29 statistic with just the amount of people that don’t even fill their prescriptions they need filled or take care of
    1:22:33 themselves the way they do. And, and then that also like over time, you know, like if you quit
    1:22:39 taking care of yourself and you’re not in good health and you’re, and you’re, you’re not in a good
    1:22:45 routine, you’re not doing, you’re not like a series, a long series of doing enough of those things. Like
    1:22:49 you do, it’s easier for you to just think that your self-worth is zero. Cause if you’re not even
    1:22:55 willing to like, if you’re not even willing to like have basic hygiene and, and eat decent food and try to
    1:23:01 take care of yourself, it’s like, why, how, like, how on earth are you going to go face all these
    1:23:05 things that you need to face to get your life better? If you can’t, you don’t even care enough
    1:23:10 to do that. It’s just like, Hey, but it is, it’s a, it’s a, it’s a, it’s a long tragic road to get to
    1:23:15 that point. I think, at least in my case, the idea that there was something bigger than me that loved
    1:23:20 me, even despite I had all these flaws and problems and just that I was just such a wretched person.
    1:23:25 That’s what, at least in my situation, that’s what I think helped put, you know,
    1:23:29 more than anything. Like I said, that’s certainly where the motivation to quit the,
    1:23:34 once I quit the drinking, it helped a lot. Cause I was able to, even though it was a pain,
    1:23:38 it was difficult. I was able to actually be able to be honest with myself and reflect on a lot of
    1:23:42 things that were, and you know, you got to think, like I said, I, we watched the, I mean, it was like
    1:23:46 with, of course, in my case, it was a little unfair of an example. Cause within a month, all this stuff
    1:23:53 happened, like after I quit, but you know, um, I see it in my friends that have quit and have tried
    1:23:57 to turn things around and it, you know, it’s like, it’s, it’s, it is the most beautiful thing in the
    1:24:03 world to see somebody like come to life again, after being in one of those, you’re able to like,
    1:24:08 sort of like escape this shell of, of all those terrible things. And even if you are still in a
    1:24:12 bad position and you’re still, you got 30 grand worth of credit card debt and you’re working some
    1:24:17 shit job and your car doesn’t start half the time. And like, you know, your girlfriend left you for
    1:24:22 some other dude and like, don’t matter what it is. Like if at least that little glimmer of hope that
    1:24:28 like that faith that there is a chance, it’s something greater. Like that can, that’ll push
    1:24:32 people. You can put, you can push, you can push them out on the side with that, you know, like you
    1:24:37 can do anything with that. And I think it’s also good. I think it is important to have a good
    1:24:40 support structure. Like when you get to that point, I don’t think you should, I don’t think
    1:24:45 anybody should have to face that stuff by themselves. And there’s plenty of other people
    1:24:49 out there that are in the same position. And I think that’s, again, I think that’s why it’s so
    1:24:54 important for us to try to get reconnected on a personal level and not just through digital
    1:24:58 communication, because like we don’t really, we don’t, all we see of each other online is the good
    1:25:04 stuff. Very rarely are people posting on Facebook talking about, you know, how could you even,
    1:25:08 it’s like, all you see is the best of people, but I don’t think we realize that we’re all going
    1:25:11 through a lot of the same things anyway, you know, the low points and stuff.
    1:25:16 Guess what happens when you either lose your job or can’t quite figure out a good job and you’re
    1:25:22 not making that much money or you’re basically broke and you have a girlfriend that’s not happy
    1:25:28 about you being broke. She’s going to leave you. And if it’s a wife that could face divorce and like
    1:25:34 the, um, breakups and divorce can break a lot of people, even when they’re doing well.
    1:25:41 And now when they’re not doing well, that’s a rough one. And that basically your support system
    1:25:46 for a lot of people is the relationship is the, what is the wife and the, and so like that’s taken
    1:25:52 the support system from underneath you. And I’ve had good friends of mine. I’ve seen get in destructive
    1:25:56 relationships and like, they’ll start to date a girl. And then like within a year, they’re just
    1:26:02 like a shell of what they were. Because sometimes I do think it’s, I do think you have to be careful
    1:26:06 with like your self validation and the way you perceive yourself and making sure that it’s you
    1:26:11 giving yourself that and not somebody else. Cause I do think too, it’s like, yeah, like you’re,
    1:26:17 you know, how are you supposed to, if you can’t even, if you can’t even keep a woman around to love
    1:26:21 you, right? Like, how are you supposed to love yourself? It’s easy to think about that. Like
    1:26:25 I’ve seen a lot of men get wrecked in bad relationships and stuff too. That’s it’s a, it’s tough,
    1:26:32 you know? Yeah. Ultimately I think maybe dark to say, but there is, there is a base layer at which
    1:26:41 we’re, we’re alone in this world. Like you need to be strong by yourself first and foremost,
    1:26:47 sometimes there’ll be times in life where everybody leaves you. Yeah. The wife leaves
    1:26:53 you, the job leaves you. And for some people might even people you thought are friends will backstab
    1:27:00 you. And even then you have to have the strength to find your footing again. Like that, that ultimately
    1:27:05 comes from you. Right. I mean, man, of course, like I said, in all the experiences I’ve been through,
    1:27:11 just, I can’t, I’d be a fool to deny it. But like, I do think there is God there that’s always there if
    1:27:16 you’re, but you certainly can self-isolate yourself too, even from that. If you can find faith in
    1:27:24 yourself, I’ve seen it do wonderful things for human beings. You and God, faith in something bigger than
    1:27:32 you. Yeah. That can give strength to a lot of people, but, uh, allowing yourself to derive strength
    1:27:40 solely from other people can be a dangerous thing because people are complicated and they can betray,
    1:27:47 they can, um, just like they can fill your life with love. They could also destroy you.
    1:27:53 That’s also the beautiful thing about life. Yeah, it is. You make yourself vulnerable to other people,
    1:28:01 you form deep relationships. That means they can also destroy you. So that’s life.
    1:28:06 Beth, that’s what makes this whole thing. That’s what, and then you write really great heartbreak
    1:28:13 songs. Yeah. You know, people, you know, there’s something valuable about people fucking you over and,
    1:28:21 and hardship and all that kind of stuff. Even the best of us have terrible parts of us. Like we are all
    1:28:31 flawed inherently because we’re human. And so there, there’ll never be a, there’ll never be another garden
    1:28:36 of Eden on earth. Like figuratively where, where we all just live harmoniously and everything’s great
    1:28:41 and happy and wonderful, but it is, it’s those basic principles that you talk about, like love and our,
    1:28:44 and those relationships and those connections that we have, they, they make it all. Cause the thing about,
    1:28:48 I mean, like in a lot of cases, it’s like, what even, that’s the position you get in when you get to,
    1:28:52 when you get so depressed and you get so low, it’s like, what’s the point in even doing all this?
    1:28:58 Like it is, it is just for anyone. It’s just so crazy, overly complicated and exhausting to live.
    1:29:04 Isn’t it like, even in this modern society where we have all these wonderful little conveniences and we
    1:29:08 can just have food delivered right to our door if we want and all this kind of crap. It’s like,
    1:29:14 people are still like more depressed now than they’ve ever been. And like all the mental anxiety and all
    1:29:21 the mental health stuff is just probably just as prevalent as it’s ever been. It’s, it’s people talk
    1:29:26 about money, not making you happy. And you know, it’s like easy when you’re, it’s easy when you’re broke
    1:29:30 to think, man, if I had some money, I’ve, and of course, financial freedom is what you’re really
    1:29:34 looking for. Not like an abundance of wealth, but the things that we talk about that make life worth
    1:29:38 living, aren’t things that you can buy. They are things that you obtain through relationships and love
    1:29:49 and life. And so it’s a, it is just an infinitely complex and crazy thing to think about, but it’s
    1:29:58 like, uh, that human component of us is what, is what we, is what’s so important to our, to our long-term
    1:30:04 existence, like our, our ability to, to have connection with each other. And the joy we find in that,
    1:30:10 the purpose we find in that is it’s not, it’s not anything that’s replaceable by with anything,
    1:30:18 you know? Yeah. I’ve seen that with, uh, just seeing the effects of war on the people and
    1:30:27 basically war strips away everything. You lose your home, you, you lose everything and, uh, you get to
    1:30:32 see what’s actually really important. And that’s the other people in your life, uh, friends, family.
    1:30:40 And it’s almost cliche to say, but it’s, uh, it’s the people you love in your life that make up
    1:30:48 the essence of what makes life worth living. It’s not the homes, the material possessions, the,
    1:30:56 even the job and whatever else it’s the, the, the humans. So, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It’s important to
    1:31:01 remember a lot of us, especially in the United States under a capital system or chasing money.
    1:31:08 Yeah. It’s important to remember what you’re doing it all for. I got to talk to you about your, um,
    1:31:16 your writing process. You’ve written just a bunch of really incredible songs. You say you’re not good at,
    1:31:21 you’re not a good musician, which is hilarious. Dude, I have no, so I have like zero self-confidence
    1:31:26 about any, I mean, just about anything, but I just, when I say that I’m not being funny. Like I’m like,
    1:31:35 you get nervous when you like get on stage. Oh yeah. Yeah. Like I can think about shows coming up
    1:31:41 and my hands will sweat thinking about them. Yeah. You told me that you like, haven’t really played
    1:31:46 the songs for like a couple months, like old songs. Since September. Yeah. Since September.
    1:31:53 Well, dude, like think about how, like, you know, I can’t, I’m not going to sit around and play. I’ve
    1:32:00 got to get sober for fun. Like, and like, you know. So you feel, you feel the songs when you play them.
    1:32:07 Yeah. Yeah, man. That’s rough. That’s, that’s rough. A lot of musicians talk about that kind
    1:32:11 of thing there. Right. Like about this. I don’t know. I’ve heard about that with people like about
    1:32:18 hating to play songs because of that side of it, but. Well, yeah, I’ve, um, uh, become close
    1:32:23 friends with, uh, Dan Reynolds, who’s, uh, the lead singer for Imagine Dragons. Yeah. And he says,
    1:32:27 every time he performs a song, I mean, he has songs that have depression in them and all that kind of
    1:32:34 stuff. And he says like, the only real way to do it is to feel it. You, you, you have to, you can’t
    1:32:40 just fake it. You have to like be in it. You have to like really feel the song as if you’re singing it,
    1:32:46 as if you’re writing it for the first time. So as a performer that, that he says that that’s his duty.
    1:32:53 He has to, to the, to the audience, but then that takes a toll. That’s not easy to do. That’s like,
    1:32:58 that, uh, especially with the songs that you write. I mean, there’s a lot of darkness there
    1:33:05 in your songs. Yeah. And I do have some, I do have some whiter hearted ones too, that, uh,
    1:33:08 that I’ll, you know, I mean, I’ve, the thing is, it’s like, I’ve only put out,
    1:33:11 I I’m a little funny about like, really like,
    1:33:16 God, I don’t know how many songs I have written that I will probably never do anything with.
    1:33:20 Like, I mean, probably at least 20 or 30 of them that are just like,
    1:33:23 they’re just not, I just don’t know why I don’t want to put them out, but just.
    1:33:29 What does it look like? What do you have? Like a notebook with ideas or do you mean you have like
    1:33:35 literal videos of half-baked songs? Yeah. I’ve got my old phone. Well, like even just that old phone
    1:33:39 that I recorded all the stuff for Tik TOK and all on, it’s got loads of like little,
    1:33:44 just like the way that Richmond one was where it was like in the bathroom facing this. And I had
    1:33:48 like that, you know, that’s all that. Even that one I showed you on there, it had been sitting on my
    1:33:52 phone probably a couple months before it. That’s why I said I have too many unfinished songs. It’s
    1:33:57 exactly what I meant. I’ve got all these little snippets of things like a little blip here or there,
    1:34:03 but the writing process is, well, it’s a lot different than I thought most people write. Cause
    1:34:09 like in the, there’s a lot of people that do these writing rooms and stuff and they’ll have,
    1:34:13 or, you know, these co-writes where they’ll have people sit down and they like sit on the couch and
    1:34:17 smoke a joint and they’re like, all right, let’s write this song. And they just like start plugging
    1:34:25 away. And they, to me, that’s like, I can’t do that. I have to just, it’s like almost the, it’s like
    1:34:30 a lot of times the songs come when I’m not prepared for them. You like to be alone.
    1:34:37 Well, alone in my head, I could be out and I could be anywhere in it. Right. You know,
    1:34:41 some of them I’ll just be in the shower and they’ll just like, and I’m like scram because
    1:34:47 the thing is, is like, Hmm, it’s a certain part of your brain, I guess, that creates that stuff or
    1:34:52 picks it up or does whatever, but they come just, they come and they go just as quick as they come.
    1:34:57 It’s like when you wake up, it’s exactly like when you wake up, you’ve had this crazy vivid dream in
    1:35:02 your head and you wake up and it’s all right there. And then you stop thinking about it for like half a
    1:35:06 second and then it all goes away and you’ll never remember it again. You know, like you can’t remember
    1:35:10 your dreams like that. It’s exactly like that. It’s like, it’ll be there. It’s like, perfect.
    1:35:14 Like it’s all right. It’s like, it’s, it’s almost like given to you, like just perfect,
    1:35:19 like parts of it or the whole thing or whatever. And then you get into this flow state to where you just
    1:35:22 like, it’s all there in front of you and you just figure it all out. And it’s like,
    1:35:26 you’ve, it’s like somehow you’ve like unlocked this little part of your brain that you don’t
    1:35:29 even really know how to get to, but you just get to, and it’s all there and you figure it out. But
    1:35:34 man, if you don’t get it, it’s gone. Like you’ll never, you’ll never get it again. Like you’ll never
    1:35:38 even be able to replicate that song ever again. It’s like, it’ll just go away. And typically it’s
    1:35:44 like, it’s only maybe the first half of the first verse is what I’ll get, or it’ll be like the chorus
    1:35:48 line I’ll get. And then I’ll build the rest of the song around that, if that makes sense,
    1:35:52 well, the words or the music or the melody, like what, what pops into your head?
    1:35:57 The emotion, I guess the words, sometimes it’s a phrase like, um,
    1:36:03 like one thing I will do is like, especially out in the country, people say the craziest
    1:36:08 people say the craziest things. And so sometimes I’ll like jot down a little bit of some,
    1:36:12 like I will sometimes on my phone, take a little note. If somebody says something real crazy that I’ve
    1:36:16 never heard before. And then maybe one day it’ll just pop in my head. Like, Oh yeah. You know,
    1:36:21 I don’t know. It’s very random though. Like I don’t sit and just try to write songs. That’s
    1:36:25 why I haven’t put out, like, that’s why I haven’t just been dumping out. Even though I have been
    1:36:29 writing a lot of songs, I haven’t just been like dumping out all this crazy music. I don’t want
    1:36:33 to force it. I don’t want to do truck beer girl songs or like, I, you know, I don’t want to force
    1:36:39 song. I don’t want to like, do you have any truck beer girl songs? Cause that, that would be an
    1:36:43 interesting. Yeah. I’ve got the silly one about this guy in West Virginia that, um,
    1:36:49 he’s like the most, he’s the most laid back. Cause I always get in my head and go over
    1:36:53 analytical about stuff and get real serious sometimes about things. And he’s like, buddy,
    1:36:57 you just got to take a drag off this thing. And he’ll, you know, he was the one he’d always like,
    1:37:02 like peer pressure me into taking a hit off a joint or something and like, just try to cheer.
    1:37:06 And he just didn’t take life so seriously. So I’ve written this song about, it’s called Dr. Dan.
    1:37:10 And it’s about, you know, he’s a doctor, but he’s not like a, he’s not like a conventional doctor.
    1:37:16 That’s a silly one that I’ll put out. So I do have some silly ones like that. Um, I have a couple
    1:37:20 of funny ones that I’ll, that I’ll never, ever, ever probably play to the public, but I did, I played
    1:37:27 him at the mothership. Um, only cause nobody has their phones in there. But, uh, when after, right
    1:37:32 after we did Rogan, I had, I got a chance. I got, somehow I got connected with Tom Segura right after
    1:37:37 Rogan. And we went over to the mothership and I got to meet him. And I love Adam again, you know,
    1:37:41 he, he was on the thing with Norm Macdonald is how I got introduced to him. That show Norm
    1:37:46 Macdonald had, but he’s just, he’s an awesome dude. And so we, we ended up at the mothership.
    1:37:52 Uh, I think it was the evening after the Rogan podcast. And, um, Tom’s like, well, they’ve never
    1:37:56 had, they’ve never had live music in here. He’s like, you could be the first one. And I was
    1:38:03 like, whatever. And so, uh, we only had one guitar and I had my guitarist, Joey with me.
    1:38:09 So Ron White was there. It was Tom Segura and then Ron White that night. And Ron took
    1:38:15 Joey in his car, drove him across town to his, uh, to his house and grabbed another guitar
    1:38:20 and came back. And we got up there and we did like two really silly songs. And then Richmond
    1:38:27 in between, um, in between Tom set and Ron set. And I was like, again, that was one of those
    1:38:31 moments in my life where I was like, what, like, what, what is this? Like, what is this crazy
    1:38:36 reality I’m in? But I do have some funny, I used to, cause a lot of, when I wasn’t playing
    1:38:41 the open mics, you know, the, well, like, you know, Brian that you met, a lot of my guitar
    1:38:44 playing was spent at places like his house and we were all heavy drinkers and we were just
    1:38:48 sitting around at a party playing or whatever, you know? And so I definitely liked the silly
    1:38:53 stuff too, but I was really in my head when we were talking about being low and what I would
    1:38:57 suggest people to do if they’re in that point. But if I was just to like, not to flip this,
    1:39:01 but just, it just popped in my head, but probably what I would tell anybody to do if
    1:39:05 they’re like suicidal and thinking about, like, if they’re to that point is just to go find
    1:39:12 some, go find somewhere outside, like in nature and go, that’s what, you know, that’s, I kind
    1:39:17 of missed this step when we were talking about things, but like selling my house and buying
    1:39:20 that property and putting a camper on it and trying to go into this whole off grid thing
    1:39:25 really like, I don’t know. It, it does a lot of good for you being reconnected to nature
    1:39:31 cause we are a part of it, but. Oh yeah. That’s, I’ve been to the junk. I went to the jungle
    1:39:35 for that reason. Yeah. Being out of nature in every way is just, is beautiful. I saw you
    1:39:40 got some, maybe, maybe that’s what I need to do is get some goats. I saw. I got two. I can
    1:39:46 give you. I have more questions. Why are you giving them so easily? Are there issues I need
    1:39:51 to know about? Well, they’re goats. Yeah. There’s no, there’s no free lunch, man. Hey, what,
    1:39:56 how many, you got goats, you got, you got all kinds of animals. What’s the, so what’s the
    1:40:00 story of you out in the woods? What are you doing out there? Uh, no comment. I’m just kidding.
    1:40:06 Just trying to escape this dystopian nightmare that we’re all living under. Like just, it was
    1:40:11 just a form of escapism, I guess. But you know, my, well, yeah, I think in such a short period
    1:40:17 of time, my grandfather grew up like, you know, they were in a survival estate, like trying to
    1:40:23 make enough money to pay the tax on their land, growing tobacco. And then here I am like in this
    1:40:27 digital world, two generations later. And I’m just like, something’s not, you know, I’ve just felt,
    1:40:32 just felt called to try to figure out, figure all that out and how to get back into that.
    1:40:39 There’s just a, there’s such a purity to, man, if you raise an animal and kill it and eat it,
    1:40:44 like, and I’m not talking about like, like Ted Nugent style, but just like, you know,
    1:40:49 raising meat birds and pigs and stuff and being, having the ability to put those in the freezer
    1:40:53 and cook them for dinner. Like they taste so much better, but it’s just, it feels, it’s just,
    1:40:58 I don’t know how to describe it, but it just brings me joy. Um, being able to grow stuff and
    1:41:04 even just flowers and everything else, just watching stuff that’s alive like that is just
    1:41:09 such a, you know, my, what we’re doing now is I’ve bought this permaculture farm that hadn’t
    1:41:15 been operational in like six or seven years. And, um, they did a lot of herbs. They had a big orchard,
    1:41:22 blueberries, you know, but, um, my dream there is to create this space that, um, it’s like the optimal
    1:41:28 place for humans to go to fix their mind. So like, like what’s the animals and the food that I can
    1:41:32 have there and the trees that I can plant and the certain types of wildlife that I can bring in and
    1:41:37 attract, like the noises and the sounds and the smells that are optimal for a human to be in,
    1:41:43 in order to like fix whatever it is, you know, like, um, I had the opportunity to meet Robert Kennedy
    1:41:48 Jr. Early on with all this. And, um, you know, he actually came out to my property and all we taught
    1:41:53 and we’re still, I think the idea is that we’re going to launch this kind of like healing center thing
    1:41:58 out there. Um, once he gets, once they get through all the mess that like they got their hands full,
    1:42:03 a little bit right now with things, but whether I go that route or not, it’s like, that’s my goal
    1:42:07 is to basically create a place that people can go and like, and fix their mind and find the optimal
    1:42:13 thing. You know, we’ve got laying birds and meat birds. So we have, we get our eggs and meat and
    1:42:18 then, um, we’ve done pigs and sheep and goats. And then I’m going to start with cat. I’m going to get
    1:42:24 cattle in the spring. Um, so we’ll start doing like Wagyu and Angus and playing around with,
    1:42:28 and I want to get some funny stuff too. Like, um, I just large animals have a lot of,
    1:42:32 you know, there’s all these like large animal therapies out there for mental health, like
    1:42:37 with vets and stuff. It’s just something, it’s something really relaxing and rewarding about
    1:42:39 being in that space.
    1:42:44 What do you, uh, what do you find out there in nature that you can’t find anywhere else?
    1:42:50 You can’t find in the, in the, uh, quote civilized world.
    1:42:55 Well, everything in civilization seems so like everything we’ve talked about, it seems so like
    1:43:03 there’s such a level of despair and unorganization and chaos and just like, and all, and all these
    1:43:10 like terrible parts of life that seem like so unstructured and just so uncertain, but in nature,
    1:43:15 everything is certain. Everything has a system. Like even on the microbial level of soil, there’s
    1:43:22 this like intricate system and, you know, soil, soil fixes it. Like the bacteria fixes the soil and like,
    1:43:27 and you can grow certain types of plants to restore certain types of nutrients. And then that can grow
    1:43:31 certain types of trees. And then that can bring in certain types of birds. And it’s like this whole
    1:43:36 big nature is just this whole big, beautiful system. You know, like earth is just such an
    1:43:42 intricate, complex system that is structured. And although there is chaos, there’s literal tornadoes,
    1:43:46 you know, like the metaphor we were using earlier, like there are literal tornadoes in nature and
    1:43:52 other things, but there’s, there’s a piece about observing the structure there. And to me, it like,
    1:43:58 it just helps, it helps remind and restore my faith that there is something bigger than me that
    1:44:04 like, yeah. And there’s a spiritual side to it that I don’t know that I can really correctly
    1:44:10 articulate, but man, sitting out in the woods with some Creek flowing by you and just sitting in
    1:44:15 stillness, like where you, you don’t hear anything. There’s no traffic from a road. There’s no,
    1:44:18 you know, you’re just, you’re just there in stillness and just watching,
    1:44:24 watching the earth do its things. Just I’ve gotten a chance to spend a day and a night
    1:44:29 alone in deep in the Amazon jungle. That’s like my dream, man.
    1:44:37 You basically take the woods and the Creek and the quiet, let’s put that like a three on a scale of
    1:44:42 one to 10. The Amazon jungle is like an 11 because you’re not just listening to the Creek. You’re
    1:44:50 listening to like a lot of different species of animal having sex or, or trying to kill each other.
    1:44:58 And you’re just like birds, monkeys, just everything. And the, the, the, the floor full of insects,
    1:45:05 bigger kinds of ants, murdering smaller kinds of ants. It’s an orchestra of, of insects, but there,
    1:45:11 it’s quiet in the sense that there’s no machinery. The, the really dark thing about the Amazon reinforce
    1:45:18 that sometimes depending on where you are, you’ll sometimes hear in the distance, the sound of a
    1:45:26 chainsaw. You’ll hear like, yeah. And it pierces the day because like, there’s just no machinery
    1:45:36 anywhere around. But once you hear it, it’s, you know, it is like this undeniable symbol of, uh, what
    1:45:43 human civilization does to nature. It pains me seeing woods getting knocked down and residential,
    1:45:50 residential subdivisions taking their place. Like this, like the monkey part of my brain wants to
    1:45:54 just go burn it all down. Like, it’s just like, not good. Like, I don’t know. I just instinctually
    1:45:59 observe it as being not good. And I don’t know exactly how to describe it, but I’m with you.
    1:46:04 Like I, um, that was, like I said, that’s why I felt so compelled. I mean, we had, I had this little
    1:46:10 house that I had maybe a little bit of equity in and I, it was in 2019 and the housing market was up.
    1:46:15 And I was like, I sold our little house and got that. I was able to find 92 acres for like 1100 an
    1:46:20 acre. And so I still had to finance it, but it was at least like within my, barely within my.
    1:46:26 And so that’s what we did. We had a, you know, I was paying 600 a month on the land and I bought a
    1:46:33 little camper for, for $750 off this hunt club in Waverly, Virginia and drug it up there. And that’s,
    1:46:40 that’s what we had. And like went and bought a little, I got a little Kubota tractor for 0%
    1:46:45 financing and was like cutting, like this property was a mile off the road. So I had to cut basically
    1:46:50 like recut in old logging road and stuff. And you want to talk about putting a strain on your marriage?
    1:46:56 That’ll do it, buddy is selling your, selling your modest little rancher and doing that. But
    1:47:00 man, I was, that’s when I really started to live. And I think probably my, that was like the beginning
    1:47:06 point of the restoration of, of, of me, you know, and I feel bad that a lot of people just don’t even
    1:47:12 know what that’s like to be on a farm or be out in nature. And I can’t imagine just living in a
    1:47:16 suburb or a city your whole life and never getting to experience that, you know, it’s good that we have
    1:47:20 all this technology is great. And like the, the science and the innovation is important. And
    1:47:25 even the fact that you can go on YouTube and look how, look up how to do almost anything is important.
    1:47:32 It’s just that there isn’t a clear definitive line between what’s beneficial and educational and what’s
    1:47:38 predatory and harmful. And so it’s like, it happens to me all the time, but I could go on YouTube and
    1:47:44 look up how to change the brake shoes on my truck or something. And if I click on a short of somebody
    1:47:49 doing it, I automatically, like I automatically go to the next video and I may be three or four
    1:47:54 videos deep before I catch, I’m watching like, you know, some lady throw a pie at somebody. And then
    1:47:57 pretty soon I’m like, wait, I’m changing my brake. That’s the only issue.
    1:48:04 And then you’re just doom scrolling. And it, it, it does something to your mind. It just completely
    1:48:06 takes the humanity away.
    1:48:06 Yeah.
    1:48:12 It’s, it’s, it’s, it’s really horrible. Like that dopamine thing does something to my mind
    1:48:18 that I hate, which really is the opposite of nature. Like the feeling I remember being out
    1:48:24 in nature and not just a hike hike is good, but like for prolonged periods of time, several
    1:48:28 days away from the internet, away from all that. What is that? I don’t know what that is, but
    1:48:35 I don’t like what X Twitter are doing. I don’t like what Instagram is doing, whatever that
    1:48:37 is. I don’t think that’s good for the soul.
    1:48:44 Yeah. It’s emulating things that we need to be healthy humans, but it’s just like feeding
    1:48:51 it visually and audibly to us, but it’s not giving us the, it’s giving us the instant gratification
    1:48:55 of it, but it’s not giving us the long-term pleasure or fulfillment of it. Like I said, like,
    1:49:01 and the beauty is we’re in this weird period in time. Like it’s a breath of time that we’re in
    1:49:09 where, where we are able to conceptualize and observe what life was like. And that transition
    1:49:14 point that’s got us up till now. And we also have the, because in order for all this to,
    1:49:20 to continue to evolve, like in order, like even with AI, like it needs us more than we need it right
    1:49:25 now still for a very short period of time. But we have access to nearly all the information that
    1:49:32 the world has theoretically, but we also still have the perception and the, the memory of what
    1:49:38 life was like before it. And so this is like a very short window of time, like a breath of time where
    1:49:45 I think we can find a way to like incorporate this into normal life. But I think like, if that breath
    1:49:50 leaves us, like, I don’t know, I think it’s irreversible, you know, I believe that I truly believe it is
    1:49:55 irreversible. And I think like, and that’s just going to be the end of us. And it, and it could take two or
    1:50:00 three more generations to get to that point. But like, I, I think like, why don’t we find people
    1:50:06 that are way smarter than me and, and look at all the things that trend on social media, like the
    1:50:11 videos that everybody watches, like, I don’t know what it is, if it’s wood splitting and plumbing and
    1:50:17 blacksmithing and doing something with like, let’s find all the things that people are attracted to
    1:50:23 online that they obviously are like interested in and just figure out a way to have them in real life
    1:50:26 for people to immerse themselves in. Yeah. I mean, it’s the transitionary state. And I,
    1:50:32 one of the responsibilities I take very seriously, because I agree with you is I tried to pierce the
    1:50:36 bubble that is San Francisco, that is the Silicon Valley, that is the people that build these
    1:50:42 technologies. They, they often live a bit in a bubble. Yeah. That said, the people that criticize
    1:50:48 tech folks also live in a bubble. Yeah. And to sort of, first of all, piercing bubbles in general is,
    1:50:53 is good for people to get along to understand each other because, uh, people that say all technology is
    1:51:01 evil, unfortunately technology, even if that’s true, which I don’t think it is, uh, you it’s coming,
    1:51:07 uh, it’s going to be built. And so you have to figure out how to do it in a way that preserves our humanity,
    1:51:15 that, that doesn’t drag us into this black hole of like just maximizing engagement, maximizing this
    1:51:20 dopamine thing, or, where instead of reading Dostoevsky, which I should be doing, I’m looking at
    1:51:24 some girl doing the shaking her ass on Instagram and then feeling horrible about myself five minutes
    1:51:31 later, uh, that at scale seems to be happening. And so like reminding ourselves that this is not
    1:51:36 the way to steer human civilization to progress, to flourishing.
    1:51:42 The problem is, is I think we’re wasting a lot of our, our bandwidth, like a lot of the,
    1:51:46 like we only have so many minutes in a day to even use our brains and our brains can only do,
    1:51:53 but so much in a day anyway. And when we’re wasting any of it on just that, it’s like the,
    1:52:00 it’s like, I, I see it in my own professional opinion as the world is becoming just a little more
    1:52:06 in the last decade or two, as the world becomes a little more dreary and dark and more problems
    1:52:12 happen and city streets become more littered and jobs are like all these kinds of problems that we’ve,
    1:52:17 that we all argue about all the time as they become more prevalent. It’s like the internet and,
    1:52:22 and just the visuals of the internet become so much more immersive and video games are so much more,
    1:52:26 everything’s so much better here. Everything’s improving at lightning speed and technology
    1:52:32 and it’s degrading in society and in the real world. And somehow there’s gotta, there’s gotta be
    1:52:35 a way to find a balance there. But right now it seems like as technology becomes more immersive
    1:52:40 and addictive and, and interactive, you know, like the way these algorithms like feed us exactly what
    1:52:45 we want. And there’s so much psychology and just so much research that goes into making them as
    1:52:50 addictive as possible. It’s like the real world kind of sucks. Like, you know, cities that were
    1:52:56 beautiful and thriving are now falling apart, like, and, and, and have all kinds of problems that are
    1:53:00 being unaddressed and lack of leader. It’s like, there’s gotta be some kind of way, but it’s, and so
    1:53:06 it’s easy for us to feel more and more inclined to escape into the digital realm because the digital
    1:53:10 realm is becoming more fun while real life is becoming less fun. And there’s gotta be some kind of
    1:53:15 way to balance between the two. I’m with you. I’m not against technology at all. I think evil most
    1:53:20 certainly existed long before there were computers, like, and, and in even more treacherous ways, like
    1:53:26 now we have the ability to do, we’re, like I said, we’re in a very, we’re in a very temporary state
    1:53:32 right now in 2025 where we have access, where the general public has access to basically all the
    1:53:38 information there is and artificial intelligence and just immense, and the ability that like a guy can
    1:53:42 just set a bunch of cameras up and start doing podcasts and have just the, like, even just the
    1:53:47 fact that this, that your platform could be created is like immensely powerful. It never, probably never
    1:53:52 existed in world history up until now, but we also still have, the problem is, is if we just keep going
    1:54:00 without being careful about, about losing the real world aspect of it, is that like, at some point, we’re just
    1:54:04 going to get so lost and so immersed in this space. We’re not even going to know what we’re, we’re not even
    1:54:08 going to know what we’re missing out on. You know, all there’s going to be is girls on Instagram, like
    1:54:13 all there’s going to be is that. Yeah, I’ve been trying to figure it all out. I just did a super
    1:54:20 long podcast with, uh, Tim Sweeney, the CEO of Epic Games who created Fortnite and created Unreal Engine,
    1:54:25 a lot of interesting video games, like revolutionary video games. So I don’t know if you know, but Fortnite
    1:54:32 is this gigantic video game where people go into, uh, into an online world and they shoot stuff. It’s
    1:54:39 fun. It’s, it’s not like Call of Duty intense, militaristic, like raw, real kind of shooting.
    1:54:44 It’s more fun shooting at each other. But, you know, at first I was skeptical, like, is that a good way to
    1:54:51 have, to hang out with friends? But then I got to do it with people that I’m actually friends with in
    1:54:58 physical reality and you get to hear each other’s voice and you just talk and talk shit about each
    1:55:05 other together. It’s basically a phone call, honestly, with some visuals. You’re not, it’s not
    1:55:09 about the visuals. It’s about the phone call and it just makes it a little more convenient to connect
    1:55:15 regularly. Yeah. But I think you do need to remember that all of that only works if you’re
    1:55:22 consistently returning to physical reality. You know, um, in this case, like taking the quote
    1:55:29 unquote, uh, guy trip, not the Brokeback Mountain style, but just friends, you know, just friends
    1:55:35 trip out in nature together, like, like dudes on a hunting trip or, or just fishing or just hanging
    1:55:40 out in physical reality together. It’s really a fun, like we should not forget the importance of that.
    1:55:44 You talked earlier about loneliness. I think that got brought up at some point, but I do think
    1:55:49 that’s like a big, that’s a problem that’s caused a lot of our symptoms is that we are all like very
    1:55:55 lonely, even though we are all, we all seem to be so well connected digitally. We are all so lonely.
    1:56:00 You got to think, I mean, modern warfare too, was a big thing. I was, I was supposed to be in class of
    1:56:06 2010. So you can think like when I was in whatever grade, eighth grade or whatever, call of duty was like
    1:56:12 the thing, you know, I, I’ve certainly like, trust me, I’m not saying that I, I’m right in this space
    1:56:17 of digital immersion with anybody else. Like I’ve, I’ve, I’ve been there and seen it and done, you know,
    1:56:21 like, but I, I’ve wasted who knows how many hundreds of hours on modern warfare too. And like,
    1:56:28 I really built some great friendships from it. You know, I like, I, there’s, there’s a place for all
    1:56:35 that stuff. It’s just like, we ha like, there is just this, we have this innate responsibility to
    1:56:42 like, to, again, it just goes back to this, goes back to talking about our founding fathers and the
    1:56:47 way this country was created and the importance and the, like the importance of, of what it did for
    1:56:53 the world. Um, you know, and my, my understanding is that it was the first, it was the first time ever
    1:56:57 that people got together and agreed that, like you said, every man was equal because they were created
    1:57:01 in the image of God. They had unalienable rights that no government could take away from them. And
    1:57:06 that’s really important. Like we, there won’t be fortnight if we don’t worry about that. And it,
    1:57:11 and honestly, like just the collapsing in our structure with the mental health, with our youth
    1:57:15 and the suicide rates with our blue collar workers and all these kinds of things we’ve touched and
    1:57:19 talked about, like the, those are all just things. We just need more time together in real life to fix
    1:57:25 those problems. Those are just things, like I said, I make the joke, but like, like there’s never been
    1:57:29 one argument that I’ve, there’s never been one dispute with my wife that I’ve been able to
    1:57:34 figure out how to fix through a text message or like it takes, it takes being in person with people
    1:57:40 and, and like having human connection to fix any problem and heal anything, you know? And so it’s
    1:57:44 difficult. It’s like, I don’t, it’s not anybody’s fault that we’re like that. We’re not even able to
    1:57:48 really get to know each other and understand each other through the internet. Like we almost have to
    1:57:53 be together in person to even just get each other’s point of view and perspectives on things. And
    1:57:59 you know, yeah. Fuck the division that the internet creates, honestly, like the left and the right is,
    1:58:04 it’s been, it’s been, it’s been kind of a nightmare for me just to watch. Cause I see the very simple
    1:58:10 reality that we’re in it together and that there’s a lot more commonality between people. It seems cliche
    1:58:18 to say, but it’s like, no, that needs to be said more than ever. Cause it, when you look on X, it feels
    1:58:20 like everybody’s divided, but we’re not.
    1:58:25 Well, and people are always going to think differently too. Like just in our structure and the way we, you know,
    1:58:29 again, it’s like that, it goes back to that Jordan Peterson lecture about, I think in maps of meaning
    1:58:34 where he talks about people who think more conservatively or more liberally about things like it’s been
    1:58:40 applied to politics, but it is more, it’s based more in psychology than anything. Like some
    1:58:44 people are going to have, some people are going to think more inside the box and some
    1:58:47 people are going to think more outside the box, but we have to have both in order to have a healthy
    1:58:55 society. Like, oh, and also the thing that bothers me, your song, Richmond, North of Richmond, a lot of
    1:59:02 people, so a pretty even split people on the left and the right in terms of, uh, friends of mine.
    1:59:10 And sadly they’ve drifted towards the extremes a bit. Uh, those on the left definitely
    1:59:15 have developed a case of, uh, Trump derangement syndrome. Uh, those on the right seem to think
    1:59:21 that every person on the left is a kind of radical leftist. Yeah. It’s, it’s, it’s like hilarious
    1:59:28 to listen to, to people talk. It’s like everybody’s lost their mind. It feels like, but also on top of
    1:59:37 on top of that, people on the right see Trump as, uh, as a savior, as this figure who is, who could do no
    1:59:43 wrong, who’s going to restore freedom in America and all, you know, continue, you can do a full list of
    1:59:50 really positive things. And to me, he’s yet another rich man, North of Richmond, Biden, Trump, it’s all the
    1:59:56 same thing. Now, some might be able to do more good than others, but ultimately they’re in positions
    2:00:05 of power and power corrupts. And those in, in those positions often forget about the everyday person,
    2:00:11 the working class, and they leave them behind. Ultimately, uh, serve the people that are close to
    2:00:18 them and sometimes serve themselves to maintain power, to grow their power. I think the good thing you can say
    2:00:25 about them is they, I, and I could say that about both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, uh, is that they
    2:00:32 really love their family. As I get, I could say that one of the things that I love about both people
    2:00:40 is that they genuinely love their family. And like, it was always heartwarming to me to see how much
    2:00:46 Joe Biden loves his family. Like, and, and honestly, like just do anything for his family. And this,
    2:00:51 the same is true for Trump. And that just reminds you that they’re human beings. And yeah, all that
    2:00:59 to say is like, we need to see the humanity in each of us. Uh, and to some degree, always distrust the
    2:01:00 people in power.
    2:01:05 The power that people have only exists because we allow it, whether willingly or just through our
    2:01:11 own negligence. But I think that’s the important thing is like, like I said, there’s always more of
    2:01:15 us than there will be a them. There’s always more, there’s always more nobodies than there ever will
    2:01:20 be people at the top. And we just have to figure out what to do with that and how to, and I think
    2:01:25 this is, like I said, a short window of time to, to where we can still figure that out. You know,
    2:01:31 I got to ask you about something before I forget. I think I saw on Instagram, you talked about a
    2:01:36 three-legged cat. Is that a real thing? What’s the story behind the three-legged cat? The reason
    2:01:40 I want to ask you that, first of all, I want to hear this story. And second of all, I want to read
    2:01:45 to you, uh, one of my favorite Bukowski poems afterwards about another cat. All right. What’s
    2:01:54 the story? I had this cat lady neighbor who’s a real sweet lady, but, um, older lady lives in a
    2:02:01 trail, single wide trailer has probably got, I don’t know, 30 or 40 cats that she feeds at her house.
    2:02:05 Nice. It was a rainy Saturday morning. It was pouring down rain. It was going to be like, it was
    2:02:08 like eight o’clock in the morning on Saturday. It was going to be a great day. I was going to,
    2:02:14 and then I hear this lady yelling, there’s this cat stuck in my car. She’s all freaking out and don’t
    2:02:18 know what to do. And like I said, my wife’s a veterinary technician or whatever. So she’s got
    2:02:22 a little bit more sense about animals than any of us, but we go over there and the ladies tried to
    2:02:28 start her car and there’s this kitten that was up under the hood and she started the car and the cat.
    2:02:34 Basically it, it, it basically almost ripped its whole front leg off already. There was just a
    2:02:39 little bit still attached, like some tendon or whatever, but the, the leg was like wrapped up
    2:02:43 under the water pump, like the pulley, the water pump, knock the bell off. There was no way to
    2:02:49 get, there was no way to save this leg on this guy. It was like, and, but the cat was like pinned
    2:02:55 upside down. And so we ended up grabbing a, we asked the lady if she had like a knife in the house.
    2:02:59 So she gave us this like terrible looking knife, but it’s all that we had. You know, I was like,
    2:03:04 we were trying to get this done. So yeah, my wife was the one that did it, but we like got the rest of
    2:03:11 the stuff cut and got the cat out and I’m, and I don’t know. I just like to spend like,
    2:03:18 however, I was like over a grand we spent given like getting this cat’s likes getting it properly
    2:03:23 sutured or whatever to where the cat could have a healthy recovery and all. But I’m one of those
    2:03:26 type of people. Like I’m not going to, I couldn’t just let this little, I’m not going to go. They
    2:03:31 were going to just go put the cat down or whatever the lady, you know? So yeah, it’s my,
    2:03:37 I named her hop. So that’s my little cat and it hops around. And, but it was one of those things
    2:03:42 where, uh, yeah, I don’t know. I just, great example with animals. Uh, I guess it’s the same
    2:03:45 way with people. I just always see the best and I just couldn’t.
    2:03:52 Yeah. I mean, that’s one of the most amazing things about humans. It’s, it’s irrational to
    2:03:57 spend that much money on this cat, right? Because there’s so many other cats that are suffering and
    2:04:02 dying and so on, but that’s what makes humans really special. We see that the, the, the, the,
    2:04:08 the, the person or the creature suffering in front of us and the, we’re, we’re willing to move
    2:04:15 mountains to save that person. Like it’s irrational. Maybe it doesn’t make sense because the
    2:04:20 allocation of money and effort might not be correct, whatever. Uh, we just don’t give a
    2:04:24 shit. The reason that we’re willing to do it for a cat, like I said, it’s just like the thing with
    2:04:29 the dogs about giving the dogs your medication, but not yourself. So we see all the flaws and all the
    2:04:33 problems and all the disagreements and all the anger we have with each other. Just like you said,
    2:04:37 your friends on the right and the left and stuff. And like, we could show that kind of compassion
    2:04:41 and we do. I mean, humanity does from time to time show that kind of compassion, but we could show
    2:04:49 that kind of like just undeserved, just, just love, you know, to each other too. Like, and
    2:04:57 love is like, it’s funny, you know, you talked about how both of those presidents, you could say
    2:05:03 they at least love their family, but love is like, I think everyone’s capable of love. It’s probably the
    2:05:09 most powerful thing there is even beyond hate, I think is, you know, like, but it is crazy with animals.
    2:05:13 So it comes out of us so easily with animals because they, to us, they’re in there, there’s
    2:05:18 these innocent little lives. We don’t have anything against them, you know, like they don’t have,
    2:05:24 they don’t, they don’t, they don’t talk. They don’t have political views. They don’t,
    2:05:29 they’re just little creatures, but the reality is we’re all just, we’re all just creatures like that.
    2:05:35 We do that with human children. Yeah. But we don’t do it enough with adults who are also kinds of
    2:05:42 children. They’re still, we’re still like, we’re still fucking lost in this world. So I gotta, I gotta
    2:05:47 read you, I gotta read you this. It’s gotta be one of my favorite poems. It’s called the history of one
    2:05:54 tough motherfucker by Charles Bukowski. And people should go look at videos. There’s videos of Bukowski doing
    2:06:01 interviews with a cat by his side. And that’s the cat he’s talking about. All right. It goes like this.
    2:06:08 He came to the door one night, wet, thin, beaten, and terrorized. A white, cross-eyed,
    2:06:17 tailless cat. I took him in and fed him and he stayed. Grew to trust me until a friend drove up
    2:06:24 the driveway and ran him over. I took what was left to a vet who said, not much chance. Give him these
    2:06:31 pills. His backbone is crushed, but it was crushed before and somehow mended. If he lives, he’ll never
    2:06:38 walk. Look at these x-rays. He’s been shot. Look here. The pellets are still there. Also, he once had a
    2:06:46 tail. Somebody cut it off. I took the cat back. It was a hot summer, one of the hottest in decades.
    2:06:52 I put him on the bathroom floor, gave him water and pills. He wouldn’t eat. He wouldn’t touch the water.
    2:06:58 I dipped my finger into it and wet his mouth and I talked to him. I didn’t go anywhere. I put in a lot
    2:07:04 of bathroom time and talked to him and gently touched him and he looked back at me with those
    2:07:12 pale blue crossed eyes. And as the days went by, he made his first move, dragging himself forward by his
    2:07:19 front legs. The rear ones wouldn’t work. He made it to the litter box, crawled over and in. It was like
    2:07:25 the trumpet of possible victory blowing in that bathroom and into the city. I related to that cat.
    2:07:34 I had it bad. Not that bad, but bad enough. One morning he got up, stood up, fell back down and just
    2:07:44 looked at me. You can make it, I said to him. He kept trying. Getting up, falling down. Finally, he walked a few
    2:07:50 steps. He was like a drunk. The rear legs just didn’t want to do it and he fell again, rested,
    2:07:58 then got up. You know the rest. Now he’s better than ever. Cross-eyed, almost toothless, but the grace is
    2:08:05 back. And that look in his eyes never left. And now sometimes I’m interviewed. They want to hear about
    2:08:14 life and literature. And I get drunk and hold up my cross-eyed shot, run over a detailed cat. And I say,
    2:08:22 look, look at this. But they don’t understand. They say something like, you say you’ve been influenced by
    2:08:32 Celine. No. I hold the cat up, influenced by what happens, by things like this, by this, by this. I shake the
    2:08:40 cat, hold him up in the smoky and drunken light. He’s relaxed. He knows. It’s then that the interviews
    2:08:48 end. Although I am proud sometimes when I see the pictures later and there I am and there’s the cat
    2:08:56 and we are photographed together. He too knows it’s bullshit, but that somehow it all helps.
    2:09:06 So when you posted about the three-legged cat, there you go. And I think of your music and
    2:09:12 your life story in the same way. It’s just been through some shit, just like Bukowski. Neither of
    2:09:17 you two have been through what that cat’s been through. But you know, that’s kind of life. That’s
    2:09:24 what it’s all about. Uh, I was wondering if you could play a couple songs. Sure. Yeah. Okay. Cool.
    2:09:28 Do you want to take a break or no? Um, no, I’m good. Am I, we might have to take a break just,
    2:09:39 just for me to get this figured out. But of course. Yeah. Where’s, where is the guitar? Like
    2:09:42 where, no, like positionally. I think, yeah, I think this will be fine.
    2:09:45 So ghetto.
    2:09:51 Call Draven and be like, who?
    2:10:02 Well, if you, I guess I’ll do, um, if I was going to do anything on here from the older songs,
    2:10:07 it, that was related both to everything we’ve talked about. It’d probably be, I want to go home.
    2:10:08 So it’s good.
    2:10:34 If you want for my old dogs and the good Lord, they’d have me strung up in the sideboard.
    2:10:45 Cause every day living in this new world is one too many days to me. Son, we’re on the brink
    2:10:56 of the next world war. And I don’t think nobody’s praying no more. And I ain’t saying I know it for
    2:11:07 sure. I’m just down on my knees begging the Lord, take me home. I want to go home.
    2:11:21 I don’t know which road to go. It’s been so long. I just know I didn’t used to wake up feeling this way.
    2:11:32 I just do what the TV say. I want to go home.
    2:11:39 I want to go home.
    2:11:50 I want to go home.
    2:11:51 I want to go home.
    2:12:01 I want to go home.
    2:12:02 I want to go home.
    2:12:02 I want to go home.
    2:12:02 I want to go home.
    2:12:05 The trees go down
    2:12:09 Only got concrete growing around
    2:12:11 And I wanna go home
    2:12:16 I wanna go home
    2:12:21 I don’t know which road to go
    2:12:24 It’s been so long
    2:12:28 I just know I didn’t used to wake up
    2:12:30 Feeling this way
    2:12:34 Cussing myself every damn day
    2:12:38 There’s always some kind of bill to pay
    2:12:43 People just doing what the rich man say
    2:12:45 I wanna go home
    2:13:18 If it weren’t for my old dogs and the good Lord
    2:13:23 They’d have me strung up in the sideboard
    2:13:29 That’s probably one of the first
    2:13:31 I don’t know, it’s not the first song I wrote, but one of them.
    2:13:35 What a song, man, what a song, what a song
    2:13:37 What’s the story of that guitar?
    2:13:49 Well, the guy who made this like saved my butt because everything blew up and I was playing that little Gretsch resonator that’s in all the original videos and my wife had got me that off of Amazon, I think, or something.
    2:13:57 Like three or four hundred bucks, it’s like three or four hundred bucks, it’s like three or four hundred bucks, it’s like a just an entry level like import little Gretsch and the pickup never would work right in it.
    2:14:00 So this string would wouldn’t work when you plug it in.
    2:14:03 So here we are, everything happens all at once.
    2:14:08 And we’re trying to do these shows and like, you know, I think the biggest one I did.
    2:14:17 So basically what I ended up having to do was go, I bought one of these suction cup rigs that sticks right here and the mic goes down under here to pick that string up.
    2:14:28 And I played like, we played like a, I think the biggest show I did with it was like 10,000 people, but it was enough to where I couldn’t be doing a $300 guitar with a, with a rigged up thing on it anymore.
    2:14:29 It just wasn’t going to work.
    2:14:38 So this guy reached out and, um, Gretsch wouldn’t help me with my Gret, like, you know, there’s no way to really get ahold of them because they’re such a big company at the, I,
    2:14:41 I finally did get ahold of Diane Gretsch and she’s like really nice.
    2:14:44 And so it’s nothing personal against Gretsch.
    2:14:45 It’s just at the time I couldn’t get ahold of them.
    2:14:55 I figured I would have been able to, cause like everywhere sold out of those, that Gretsch model when the song blew up, you know, like it was a real pop, but that couldn’t get ahold of them.
    2:15:03 So this guy, Beard Guitar, Paul Beard in Maryland, he reached out, fixed my Gretsch and then, um, gave me one of these and made it with the, but it’s all handmade and all.
    2:15:10 It’s like, yeah, you can like whack somebody over the head with it pretty good.
    2:15:11 Yeah, nice and heavy.
    2:15:15 But yeah, he makes them all by hand, uh, a little family owned place.
    2:15:19 And I know nothing about resonating guitars.
    2:15:23 Is that like, uh, do you play regular acoustic?
    2:15:24 Yeah.
    2:15:25 It’s just basically a regular acoustic.
    2:15:27 It’s just a full step down.
    2:15:27 It’s the only difference.
    2:15:29 I’ve just got it tuned all the way down.
    2:15:29 Is that it?
    2:15:33 Cause there’s also like the, this whole vibe to it.
    2:15:33 Oh yeah.
    2:15:34 Well, the body’s different.
    2:15:40 So you can see it’s got like a, it’s got like a solid core, you know, instead of it being a hollow body, like an acoustic, it’s got that.
    2:15:42 It almost looks like a hubcap, that black.
    2:15:42 And they call the court.
    2:15:44 That’s all the same.
    2:15:45 Yeah.
    2:15:45 It’s just the same.
    2:15:46 Yeah.
    2:15:48 I wouldn’t be smart enough to play anything special.
    2:15:50 Like it’s just a regular old guitar.
    2:15:50 I don’t know.
    2:15:51 There’s a different vibe to it.
    2:15:52 Yeah.
    2:15:53 Well, I like that.
    2:15:53 Cooler.
    2:16:04 Well, the old, I’m real, I’m real fond of like the older music, like, um, so like where all my family’s from, so my dad was adopted.
    2:16:05 So I don’t have any family.
    2:16:07 Like Lunsford’s not really even a real last name to me.
    2:16:11 They’re all just, it was just my grandparents that adopted my dad.
    2:16:16 So all of my family’s Engel is like I-N-G-L-E.
    2:16:18 That’s like my real, that’s all my mom’s side of my family.
    2:16:25 And, um, they’re all from this place about 20 miles from where like the Carter family was from.
    2:16:31 So all that old Virginia, like kind of bluegrass folk music and stuff.
    2:16:33 And so I, I was just always attracted to that.
    2:16:37 And so that’s, I like the, I like the resonator a full step down.
    2:16:40 Cause it, to me, it kind of gives it that old sound.
    2:16:47 Like, um, you know, a lot of the instruments back then had like bad dull strings and they were older and they were out of tune a little bit and stuff.
    2:16:49 And I just, I listened to a lot of that type of music.
    2:16:53 So I like, I like the strings being a little out of tune and dull and not everything.
    2:16:54 And just that.
    2:16:55 Yeah.
    2:16:57 That’s why I was so attracted to it.
    2:17:00 Plus like some of the old blues players, like, you know.
    2:17:03 Playing the dobro and stuff.
    2:17:07 But that was my, that’s why I wanted to get the resonator was just because of that old.
    2:17:23 I mean, that’s even why, like, you know, I had to use my grandpa’s name as an alias, but that Oliver Anthony music is really supposed to represent like old music from like 1930s Virginia or something like, you know, like it’s kind of got that type of feel to it, or at least in its core, you know.
    2:17:27 It feels like from another time, but it also feels timeless.
    2:17:41 It’s also that my music catalog is so limited, like of what I listened to that a lot of what’s in my head, like, cause you think about when you’re writing songs and like coming up with chord progressions and stuff, you’re really, whether you realize it or not, it’s all being influenced off of other songs.
    2:17:48 So when you only have a lot of older music and like some, a little bit of metal and stuff in there, it’s like, there’s not really a whole lot.
    2:17:54 It’s like that, you know, it’s kind of going to sound that way, I guess, just in any way, cause that’s what’s in your head already.
    2:17:57 So you’re going to go out there a little bit this year.
    2:18:02 Well, what, uh, what are some things you’re looking forward to?
    2:18:03 You’re going to travel a bit.
    2:18:04 You’re going to play a bit.
    2:18:18 The idea is, is to go to a town, like let’s just use Iowa as an example, instead of, instead of the big city in Iowa playing at the venue where everybody books, let’s find a farm field, 45 minutes outside of that big city.
    2:18:36 Figure out the ingress, egress, the security, find a good promoter that can like a show organizer, basically that has experience to where it’s still, it’s still professional and it’s done correctly, but establish like a new venue space that can’t be, that can’t be put under contract by a monopoly that any artist can go play.
    2:18:48 Like without, like if, if all these musicians are sick of Ticketmaster and Live Nation, then let’s just, let’s just start playing in fields and on main streets and set these venues up and establish them correctly.
    2:18:50 And professionally to where they exist as their own space.
    2:19:04 And then, and then imagine the economic impact that would provide to a town that otherwise would never have, like, and imagine what you, you want to talk about trying to give blue collar people like some hope or give them some relatability or do anything for them.
    2:19:11 Like bring a big band to their town that they would otherwise have to drive an hour and a half somewhere to see and couldn’t even afford the tickets to start with.
    2:19:17 Like my tour last year, pretty much every show we did that was mine had a $25 ticket option and everybody scoffed at that.
    2:19:22 And I just, I was basically like made fun of for that by people in the professional space.
    2:19:26 Even people I was working with, they just thought it was so stupid, but you know what?
    2:19:33 There were people at my shows that came up and the kids were wearing hand-me-down clothes and, and like, you could tell they didn’t have any money.
    2:19:37 And they, and they said it meant a lot to them that they could come and that there was a $25 option.
    2:19:44 And so, and I’ll continue to do these shows like this to where any band that wants to come play the show, all their expenses are covered.
    2:19:52 And I’m sure there’s some kind of tax write-off component to them for them, but basically they can come in, do the show, help bring in a crowd.
    2:19:56 Like I’m taking the risk, setting the venue up and establishing it.
    2:20:02 The venue will be owned or managed by either the town or the farm or whatever, but it’s, it’s, it’ll be in a nonprofit.
    2:20:05 And then that, that space will always exist for people to rent.
    2:20:16 And the idea is, it’s like, man, imagine if I did, if I could do 20 of these a year, even if that’s, even if that’s all I can get done, like that’s 20 places that will always have music.
    2:20:20 And we’ll always have a center where people can go like, and build this sense of community.
    2:20:29 We talked about, like, it’s almost like a sanctuary if you want to call it that, but it’s like a, it’s just a space that can’t be perverted by, by corporate America.
    2:20:33 And just a place where people can go and like, do all these things that we want to do.
    2:20:35 Um, what are you excited for this year?
    2:20:41 Obviously you’re going to travel overseas and you got, sounds like you got some, some other cool stuff you’re going to do.
    2:20:41 Yeah.
    2:20:47 I’m going to see, uh, I’m going to see some world leaders, hopefully not end up in prison anywhere.
    2:20:57 Um, part, part of that, honestly, I’m excited, you know, like India to see the same humans, but in very different parts of the world.
    2:21:12 I’m not a travel guy, but I love seeing humans that there’s like a lot of us humans all over the place and they’re very different and they have funny accents and just funny way of being, you know, so I’m excited to take it all in.
    2:21:14 Cause I fundamentally love people.
    2:21:15 Yeah, man.
    2:21:24 Like I, I, uh, I would definitely say if you’re ever up, if you’re ever over towards Virginia or West Virginia, either one there, like, yeah.
    2:21:37 It’d be cool to spend a couple of days out in the woods or a day out in the woods and do, I, I haven’t really, I was, I’m really new to the whole psilocybin thing, but I have tried a few smaller doses of it actually to help with being up on stage and all.
    2:21:40 Um, it’s an interesting thing, but it’s great.
    2:21:40 Yeah.
    2:21:43 The dog, definitely the dogs in the woods part.
    2:21:44 I got you on that.
    2:21:46 Uh, I would love to join in.
    2:21:53 I mean, I’ve, I’ve, I’ve taken mushrooms a few times and listen, I usually just love everything anyway, but with mushrooms, you just love it a little bit more.
    2:22:01 Like, especially out of nature, when I’m look out in nature, I’m just in awe of how incredibly beautiful it is.
    2:22:05 And just like a stare at a tree for hours.
    2:22:13 And then you take mushrooms and like that tree starts like having some more dynamism to it.
    2:22:18 So it’s just a little boost, but like, yeah, I get into this crazy, like I said, it’s only been a handful of times.
    2:22:38 Cause I’ve, I don’t know, it’s one of those things where it’s, I’m, it’s still a little unfamiliar to me, but like, like talking about trees and psilocybin, you know, you think about, you start to look in those trees and you think like, in their relative perspective of time, you know, cause they’re constantly moving around and growing and doing all these things.
    2:22:44 And you think about like, in their perspective, maybe we’re just, we’re just moving way faster than their perception.
    2:22:46 And they’re, they’re moving at just a normal speed.
    2:22:51 I don’t, it’s just that you get into all these crazy trains of thought when you sit out in the woods on that stuff, but.
    2:22:52 A hundred percent, man.
    2:22:55 I mean, like maybe that’s the history of, uh, life.
    2:23:11 I mean, humans have some chance of destroying 95, 99% of the population with nuclear weapons and the trees will remain and they will reconstruct the environment of earth and help the few humans that remain to survive.
    2:23:16 And it’ll be the fucking trees that we’d be grateful for their actual deep life.
    2:23:19 ancient, uh, wisdom.
    2:23:22 So maybe they’re the intelligent ones.
    2:23:23 Maybe we’re the idiots.
    2:23:32 When you’re out in nature like that and just reading, but we’re just looking at and studying the way all those systems work with soil and trees and animals and how it all just integrates in together.
    2:23:42 It does give you some sense of peace that maybe there is some, there is some system at place that’s out of our hands that can just help us with our fault, our faults and our repercussions.
    2:23:52 And again, like for me, just, um, yeah, I think just being out there, especially now that now looking at it through the lens of, of God, of their, you know, of, of God, it helps.
    2:24:02 There’s, I’ve found no greater peace than just being out in the woods and, and praying or just, just trying to focus my mind on, on that.
    2:24:04 Like I, but yeah, I would love for you to come out there sometime and.
    2:24:06 I’m 100% will.
    2:24:07 That is it.
    2:24:13 Um, see, like feeling peaceful out in Virginia, in the woods is easy.
    2:24:15 Try doing it in the Amazon jungle when a giant.
    2:24:16 Oh, I’d love, dude.
    2:24:16 I.
    2:24:18 And just bites you.
    2:24:19 Dude, I would do anything to go to the Amazon.
    2:24:21 And all of the peace is, is, is gone.
    2:24:29 You’re like, motherfucker, what do you, what is, and then like a second one joins in, kills the first one and bites you again.
    2:24:32 And then you’re like, okay, nature is not all.
    2:24:33 Yeah, it’s not.
    2:24:39 I mean, there is, uh, there is harmony to it, but part of the harmony is the violence.
    2:24:40 Yeah.
    2:24:42 It’s just the reality of it.
    2:24:45 It’s, um, sex and violence.
    2:24:49 Like, I guess that’s the thing about it though, is like, it has all the same components of humanity.
    2:24:53 Just almost, you know, like almost to a comical level.
    2:24:56 I mean, the real comedy is the monkeys up in the trees.
    2:25:03 They’re just, it’s like, it’s like little humans and they’re arguing, screaming at each other, throwing stuff, getting into fights.
    2:25:11 It’s like, it’s like reality TV, but like more pure, more real, more distilled down to his fundamentals.
    2:25:19 Like we, we are that, you know, we, we put on clothes these days and have a fancy.
    2:25:25 Words that we say to each other and look all sexy on Instagram, but we’re the same monkeys, apes.
    2:25:30 It’s like the old lobsters, you know, but it really is true.
    2:25:38 Like, like, uh, we all, we all, yeah, we’re all on that same kind of same operating system in a way.
    2:25:40 Brother, this was a huge honor.
    2:25:44 I can’t, I don’t have the words to describe how incredible this was.
    2:25:48 And I think, uh, it was just fun.
    2:25:49 It was really fun talking to you.
    2:25:52 Total honor to be able to come on here for me as well.
    2:26:02 And, um, especially just to get to meet you in real life and see like, you know, you are what I, you are what I expected you to be like in a good way.
    2:26:05 Like, you know, you just don’t ever like, yeah, you’re just, you’re a good dude.
    2:26:07 So I appreciate what you’re doing.
    2:26:12 I got to show you the sex dungeon downstairs where I keep sex slaves.
    2:26:13 It’s very different.
    2:26:14 No.
    2:26:15 Yeah, man.
    2:26:16 All right.
    2:26:16 Time to wake up.
    2:26:17 Let’s go back to reality.
    2:26:22 Thanks for listening to this conversation with Oliver Anthony.
    2:26:25 To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description.
    2:26:29 And now, let me leave you with some words from George Orwell.
    2:26:36 Political language is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable.
    2:26:40 And to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.
    2:26:45 Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
    2:26:50 Bye.

    Oliver Anthony is singer-songwriter who first gained worldwide fame with his viral hit Rich Men North of Richmond. He became a voice for many who are voiceless, with many of his songs speaking to the struggle of the working class in modern American life.
    Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep469-sc
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    OUTLINE:
    (00:00) – Introduction
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    (13:03) – Mainstream country music
    (22:10) – Fame
    (28:06) – Music vs politics
    (36:56) – Rich Men North of Richmond
    (47:06) – Popularity, money, and integrity
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  • #468 – Janna Levin: Black Holes, Wormholes, Aliens, Paradoxes & Extra Dimensions

    AI transcript
    0:00:05 The following is a conversation with Jana Levin, a theoretical physicist and cosmologist
    0:00:11 specializing in black holes, cosmology of extra dimensions, topology of the universe,
    0:00:17 and gravitational waves in space-time. She has also written some incredible books,
    0:00:22 including How the Universe Got Its Spots on the topic of the shape and the size of the universe,
    0:00:29 A Madman Dreams of Turing Machines on the topic of genius, madness, and the limits of knowledge.
    0:00:37 Black Hole Blues and other songs from outer space on the topic of LIGO and the detection of
    0:00:48 gravitational waves, and Black Hole Survival Guide, all about black holes. This was a fun and fascinating
    0:00:54 conversation. And now a quick few second mention of each sponsor. Check them out in the description.
    0:01:00 It’s the best way to support this podcast. We’ve got Brain.fm for focus, Better Health for mental
    0:01:07 health, NetSuite for your business, Shopify for selling stuff, and the AG1 for your health.
    0:01:12 Choose wisely, my friends. I do these longer ad reads up in the beginning. I try to make them
    0:01:18 interesting, but I do also make it super easy to skip with timestamps on screen and in the description.
    0:01:24 I do, however, try to make them personal, often related to stuff I’m reading or thinking about.
    0:01:29 Also, if you want to get in touch with me for whatever reason, go to lextreatment.com slash
    0:01:37 contact. And now onto the full ad reads. Let’s go. This episode is brought to you by Brain.fm,
    0:01:45 a platform that offers music specially made for focus. And when I say music, I mean audio experience.
    0:01:54 If you ever see me out in the wild, like a Starbucks, I’m usually either writing or programming deeply in
    0:02:05 focus with headphones. In those headphones are layers of audio. A mixture of some noise, beats, rain,
    0:02:15 layers. Many layers that help me deeply, deeply, deeply focus. Speaking of audio, did you know
    0:02:25 that the Roman Empire used synchronized war drums to coordinate legions? Just imagine the sound of
    0:02:33 those drums. I need to do a lot more episodes on ancient Rome, on ancient Greece, on ancient China.
    0:02:40 Anyway, I’m not listening to war drums. I’m listening to Brain.fm when I’m focusing.
    0:02:46 You too can increase your focus and try Brain.fm free for 30 days by going to brain.fm slash lex.
    0:02:53 That’s brain.fm slash lex for 30 days free. This episode is also brought to you by BetterHelp,
    0:03:02 spelled H-E-L-P, help. It’s raining outside, thunderstorms, like somebody’s knocking on the window.
    0:03:07 If that’s not a metaphor for prodding the subconscious mind, I don’t know what is.
    0:03:13 Alan Turing comes up in this episode. He was crucial in the whole code-breaking effort in World
    0:03:23 War II. I should probably do an episode on that. His work, his person, his mind has been a presence
    0:03:32 in my life. What an incredible human being. But anyway, I think of the human mind, the conscious and the
    0:03:40 subconscious is a kind of code. And therapy is a kind of code-breaking process. I wonder if AI will
    0:03:48 be able to help with that. Not just basic therapy, but ultra deep personalized therapy. Boy, that’s a
    0:03:56 dangerous world. Anyway, check out a human therapist at betterhelp.com slash lex and save in your first
    0:04:03 month. That’s betterhelp.com slash lex. This episode is also brought to you by NetSuite, an all-in-one cloud
    0:04:09 business management system. The more I study war, of course, the more I study business too, but war,
    0:04:17 the more I realize the importance of the organizational layer, of the supply chain, of the logistics,
    0:04:24 stuff that nobody talks about. The stuff that most historians don’t talk about. And actually,
    0:04:30 I’ve read a lot of James Holland recently and spoken with him, had the great honor of speaking with him,
    0:04:36 had the great joy of speaking with him and learning from him. And he’s one of the historians that does
    0:04:43 look at the logistics, does look at the details of how everything is run. And NetSuite in the company
    0:04:49 setting is doing exactly that. The details of how everything is run. Because a business is not just
    0:04:58 a CEO with a bunch of sexy ideas. Or the late night engineer crouching over a table, trying to fix a bug,
    0:05:05 trying to find a breakthrough idea. Nope. It’s also all the other stuff that actually make the thing work,
    0:05:11 make the thing efficient, have great tools to do so. Download the CFO’s guide to AI and machine learning
    0:05:18 at netsuite.com slash lex. That’s netsuite.com slash lex. This episode is also brought to you by Shopify,
    0:05:25 a platform designed for anyone to sell anywhere with a great looking online store. Since I mentioned
    0:05:33 history, the merchant networks were crucially important in ancient Greece, were crucially important
    0:05:42 in the Roman Empire. And of course, Genghis Khan, very, very, very important. Of course, Genghis Khan is well known
    0:05:50 for protecting the merchants. And I think any empires, any civilizations, any state of the global affairs
    0:05:58 that protects the merchants from the friction of geopolitics, of military tensions and military conflicts,
    0:06:05 is a successful empire, successful civilization. Because trade is really, really important.
    0:06:14 It’s a kind of a financial freedom. So it’s nice when in a digital age, we build systems like Shopify
    0:06:21 that allows you to exercise that financial freedom by buying stuff, selling stuff, create the market at
    0:06:28 scale in the digital world. Sign up for a $1 per month trial period at shopify.com slash lex. That’s all
    0:06:36 lowercase. Go to shopify.com slash lex to take your business to the next level today. This episode is also
    0:06:43 brought to you by AG1, an all-in-one daily drink to support better health and peak performance. Because I
    0:06:52 mentioned peak performance, I’m reminded of Nietzsche. And the book I read, maybe freshman, maybe sophomore
    0:07:02 year in college, thus spoke Zarathustra. It’s been forever. I’ve been reading summaries of Nietzsche,
    0:07:12 way more than Nietzsche directly since college. That’s one of the worries I have with AI is the summaries
    0:07:21 the talking about the talking about the talking is so damn efficient and fun and easy and even
    0:07:27 insightful that you don’t want to go to the original sources because it’s a lot of work.
    0:07:35 But you must, of course, if you want to understand. As the meme goes, but have you been there?
    0:07:43 That never gets old. And anyway, I think about that with some of the classics, but even some of
    0:07:50 the 20th century, 19th century works. You know, you want to read Marx directly. You want to read
    0:07:56 Nietzsche directly. You want to read Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung directly. Because of course, there is
    0:08:02 great books about them, about their ideas, summarizing their ideas, elaborating their ideas, putting them in
    0:08:10 the proper context. But there’s nothing quite like reading it directly. But anyway, I brought that up
    0:08:18 because in Thus Spoke Zarathustra, there’s the pursuit of peak human potential. And we in the West,
    0:08:25 on the health front, have at times taken that to an almost ridiculous place. I think it’s still really
    0:08:36 useful. But sometimes it’s also useful to fuck off a bit, to relax a bit, and not care. Funny enough,
    0:08:44 AG1 helps me in a certain kind of way. Relax and not care. I got my nutrition handled. I can do all kinds
    0:08:51 of crazy physical stuff, mental stuff, because I’m drinking AG1. They’ll give you a one-month supply of fish
    0:08:58 oil when you sign up at drinkag1.com slash lex. This is the Lex Friedman Podcast. To support it,
    0:09:04 please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Jenna Levin.
    0:09:26 I should say that you sent me a message about not starting early in the morning. And that made me
    0:09:32 feel like we’re kindred spirits. You wrote to me, when the great physicist Sidney Coleman was asked to
    0:09:37 attend a 9 a.m. meeting, his reply was, I can’t stay up that late.
    0:09:41 Yeah, classic. Sidney was beloved.
    0:09:45 I think all the best thoughts, honestly, maybe the worst thoughts, too, are all come at night.
    0:09:50 There’s something about the night. Maybe it’s the silence. Maybe it’s the peace all around. Maybe
    0:09:55 it’s the darkness. And you just, you can be with yourself and you can think deeply.
    0:10:01 I feel like there’s stolen hours in the middle of the night because it’s not busy. Your gadgets
    0:10:06 aren’t pinging. There’s really no pressure to do anything, but I’m often awake in the middle of
    0:10:12 the night. And so it’s sort of like these extra hours of the day. I think we were exchanging messages
    0:10:16 at four in the morning. Okay. So in that way, many other ways were
    0:10:22 kindred spirits. So let’s go. In one of the coolest objects in the universe, black holes,
    0:10:28 what are they? And maybe even a good way to start is to talk about how are they formed?
    0:10:36 Yeah. In a way, people often confuse how they’re formed with the concept of the black hole in the
    0:10:42 first place. So when black holes were first proposed, Einstein was very surprised that such
    0:10:48 a solution could be found so quickly, but really thought nature would protect us from their formation.
    0:10:52 And then nature thinks of a way. Nature thinks of a way to make these crazy objects, which is to kill
    0:10:58 off a few stars. But then I think that there’s a confusion that dead stars, these very, very massive
    0:11:05 stars that die are synonymous with the phenomenon of black hole. And it’s really not the case. Black
    0:11:12 holes are more general and more fundamental than just the death state of a star. But even the history
    0:11:20 of how people realize that stars could form black holes is quite fascinating because the entire idea
    0:11:26 really just started as a thought experiment. And if you think of, it’s 1915, 1916, when Einstein
    0:11:33 fully describes relativity in a way that’s the canonical formulation. It was a lot of changing back
    0:11:39 and forth before then. And it’s World War I, and he gets a message from the Eastern Front from a friend
    0:11:46 of his, Carl Schwarzschild, who solved Einstein’s equations. You know, between sitting in the trenches and
    0:11:53 like cannon fire, it was joked that he was calculating ballistic trajectories. He’s also
    0:12:00 perusing the proceedings of the Prussian Academy of Sciences, as you do. And he was an astronomer
    0:12:06 who had enlisted in his 40s. And he finds this really remarkable solution to Einstein’s equations. And
    0:12:12 it’s the first exact solution. He doesn’t call it a black hole. It’s not called a black hole for decades.
    0:12:17 But what I love about what Schwarzschild did is it’s a thought experiment. It’s not about observations.
    0:12:24 It’s not about making these things in nature. It’s really just about the idea. He sets up this
    0:12:32 completely untenable situation. He says, imagine I crush all the mass of a star to a point. Don’t ask
    0:12:37 how that’s done, because that’s really absurd. But let’s just pretend. And let’s just imagine that
    0:12:45 that that’s a scenario. And then he wants to decide what happens to spacetime if I set up this confounding,
    0:12:50 but somehow very simple scenario. And really what Einstein’s equations were telling everybody at the
    0:12:57 time was that matter and energy curve space and time. And then curved spacetime tells matter and energy
    0:13:03 how to fall once the spacetime’s shaped. So he finds this beautiful solution. And the most amazing thing
    0:13:10 about a solution is he finds this demarcation, which is the event horizon, which is the region beyond which
    0:13:16 not even light can escape. And if you were to ask me today, all these decades, over a hundred years
    0:13:22 later, I would say that is the black hole. The black hole is not the mass crushed to a point. The black
    0:13:28 hole is the event horizon. And the event horizon is really just a point in spacetime or a region in
    0:13:36 spacetime. It’s actually, in this case, a surface in spacetime. And it marks a separation in events,
    0:13:41 which is why it’s called an event horizon. Everything outside is causally separated from
    0:13:48 the inside insofar as what’s inside the event horizon can’t affect events outside. What’s outside
    0:13:54 can affect events inside. I can throw a probe into a black hole and cause something to happen on the
    0:14:00 inside. But the opposite isn’t true. Somebody who fell in can’t send a probe out. And this one-way
    0:14:07 aspect really is what’s profound about the black hole. Sometimes we talk about the black holes being
    0:14:13 nothing because at the event horizon, there’s really nothing there. Sometimes when we think about black
    0:14:20 holes, we want to imagine a really dense dead star. But if you go up to the event horizon, it’s an empty
    0:14:27 region of spacetime. It’s more of a place than it is a thing. And Einstein found this fascinating. He
    0:14:33 helped get the work published, but he really didn’t think these would form in nature. I doubt Karl
    0:14:41 Schwarzschild did either. I think they thought they were solving theoretical mathematical problems,
    0:14:48 but not describing this, what turned out to be the end state of gravitational collapse.
    0:14:52 And maybe the purpose of the thought experiment was to find the limitations of the theory.
    0:14:59 So you find the most extreme versions in order to understand where it breaks down.
    0:14:59 Yeah.
    0:15:06 And it just so happens in this case, that might actually predict these extreme kinds of objects.
    0:15:13 It does both. So it also describes the sun from far away. So the same solution does a great job
    0:15:19 helping us understand the Earth’s orbit around the sun. It’s incredible. It does a great job. It’s almost
    0:15:26 overkill. You don’t really need to be that precise as relativity. And yes, it predicts the phenomenon of
    0:15:31 black holes, but it doesn’t really explain how nature would form them. But then it also, on top of that,
    0:15:35 does signal the breakdown of the theory. I mean, you’re quite right about that. It actually says,
    0:15:42 oh man, but you go all the way towards the center. And yeah, this doesn’t sound right anymore.
    0:15:49 Sometimes I liken it to, you know, it’s like a dying man marking in the dirt that something’s gone
    0:15:55 wrong here, right? It’s signaling that there’s some culprit, there’s something wrong in the theory.
    0:16:01 And even Roger Penrose, who did this general work trying to understand
    0:16:08 the formation of black holes from gravitational collapse, he thought, oh yeah, there’s a singularity
    0:16:15 that’s inevitable. It’s in every, there’s no way around it once you form a black hole. But he said,
    0:16:20 this is probably just a shortcoming of the fact that we’ve forgotten to include quantum mechanics,
    0:16:25 and that when we do, we’ll understand this differently.
    0:16:29 So according to him, the closer you get to the singularity, the more quantum mechanics comes
    0:16:32 into play and therefore there’s no singularity, there’s something else.
    0:16:37 I think everybody would say that. I think everybody would say the closer you get to the singularity,
    0:16:43 for sure you have to include quantum mechanics. You just can’t consistently talk about magnifying
    0:16:52 such small scales, having such enormous ruptures and curvatures and energy scales and not include
    0:16:55 quantum mechanics, that that’s just inconsistent with the world as we understand it.
    0:17:03 So you’ve described the brain-breaking idea that a black hole is not so much a super dense
    0:17:11 matter as it’s sometimes described, but it’s more akin to a region of space-time, but even more so
    0:17:16 just nothing. It’s nothing. That’s the thing you seem to like to say.
    0:17:21 I do. I do like to say that black holes are no thing. They’re nothing.
    0:17:23 Okay. So what does that mean?
    0:17:28 That’s what I mean. That’s the more profound aspect of the black hole. So you asked originally,
    0:17:36 how do they form? And I think that even when you try to form them in messy astrophysical systems,
    0:17:42 there’s still nothing at the end of the day left behind. And this was a very big surprise,
    0:17:48 even though Einstein accepted that this was a true prediction, he didn’t think that they’d be made.
    0:17:54 And it was quite astounding that people like Oppenheimer, actually it’s probably Oppenheimer’s
    0:18:00 most important theoretical work, who were thinking about nuclear physics and quantum mechanics,
    0:18:07 but in the context of these kind of utopian questions. Why do stars shine? Why is the sun radiant
    0:18:13 and hot and this amazing source of light? And it was people like Oppenheimer who began to ask the question,
    0:18:23 could stars collapse to form black holes? Could they become so dense that eventually not even light
    0:18:30 would escape? And that’s why I think people think that black holes are these dense objects. That’s
    0:18:34 often how it’s described. But actually what happens, these very massive stars, they’re burning
    0:18:41 thermonuclear fuel. You know, they’re earthfuls of thermonuclear fuel they’re burning. And emitting
    0:18:47 energy in E equals MC squared energy. So it’s fusing, it’s a fusion bomb. It’s a constantly going
    0:18:52 thermonuclear bomb. And eventually it’s going to run out of fuel. It’s going to run out of hydrogen,
    0:19:01 helium stuff to fuse. It hits an iron core. Iron, to go past iron with fusion is actually energetically
    0:19:06 expensive. So it’s no longer going to do that so easily. So suddenly it’s run out of fuel.
    0:19:11 And if the star is very, very, very massive, much more massive than our sun, maybe 20, 30 times
    0:19:17 the mass of our sun, it’ll collapse under its own weight. And that collapse is incredibly fast
    0:19:22 and dramatic and it creates a shockwave. So that’s the supernova explosion. So a lot of these,
    0:19:29 they rebound because once they crunch, they’ve reached a new critical capacity where they can
    0:19:37 reignite to higher elements, heavier elements. And that sets off a bomb, essentially. So the star
    0:19:44 explodes, helpfully, because that’s why you and I are here. Because stars send their material back out
    0:19:49 into space and you and I get to be made of carbon and oxygen and all this good stuff. We’re not just
    0:19:57 hydrogen. So the suns do that for us. And then what’s left sometimes ends at a neutron star, which is a very
    0:20:06 cool object, very fascinating object, super dense, but bigger than a black hole, meaning it’s not compact
    0:20:11 enough to become a black hole. It’s an actual thing. A neutron star is a real thing. It’s like a giant
    0:20:17 neutron. Literally, electrons get jammed into the protons and make this giant nucleus in this superconducting
    0:20:25 matter. Very strange, amazing objects. But if it’s heavier than that, the core, and that’s heavier than twice the
    0:20:33 mass of the sun, it will become a black hole. And Oppenheimer wrote this beautiful paper in 1939
    0:20:41 with his student saying that they believed that the end state of gravitational collapse is actually a
    0:20:49 black hole. This is stunning and really a visionary conclusion. Now, the paper is published the same day
    0:20:56 the Nazis advance on Poland. And so it does not get a lot of fanfare in the newspapers.
    0:21:02 Yeah, we think there’s a lot of drama today on social media. Imagine that. Like, here’s a guy who
    0:21:09 predicts how actually in nature would be the formation of this most radical of object that broke even
    0:21:17 Einstein’s brain while one of the most evil, if not the most evil humans in history starting
    0:21:19 the first steps of a global war.
    0:21:23 What I also love about that lesson is how agnostic science is.
    0:21:28 Because he was asking these utopian questions, as were other people of the time, about the nuclear
    0:21:33 physics and stars. You might know this play, Copenhagen, by Michael Frayn. There’s this line that he
    0:21:41 contributes to Bohr. Bohr was the great thinker of early foundations of quantum mechanics, Danish
    0:21:47 physicist, where Bohr says to his wife, “Nobody’s thought of a way to kill people using quantum
    0:21:53 mechanics.” Now, of course, then there’s the nuclear bomb. And what I love about this was the pressure
    0:22:00 scientists were under to do something with this nuclear physics and to enter this race over
    0:22:07 a nuclear weapon. But really, at the same time, 1939, really, Oppenheimer’s thinking about black
    0:22:13 holes. There’s even a small line in Chris Nolan’s film. It’s very hard to catch. There’s a reference
    0:22:17 to it in the film where they’re sort of joking, “Well, I guess nobody’s going to pay attention to your
    0:22:21 paper now.” You know? Because of the Nazi advance on Poland.
    0:22:26 That’s the other remarkable thing about Oppenheimer is he’s also a central figure in the construction of
    0:22:32 the bomb. So it’s theory and experiment clashing together with the geopolitics.
    0:22:37 Exactly. So, of course, Oppenheimer, now known as the father of the atomic bomb,
    0:22:44 he talks about destroyers of worlds. But it’s the same technology. And that’s what I mean by science
    0:22:51 is agnostic, right? It’s the same technology, overcoming a critical mass, igniting thermonuclear
    0:22:55 fusion. Eventually, there was a fission. The original bomb was a fission bomb. And fission
    0:23:02 was first shown by Lise Meitner, who showed that a certain uranium, when you bombarded it with protons,
    0:23:07 broke into smaller pieces that were less than the uranium, right? So some of that mass,
    0:23:14 that E equals mc squared energy, had escaped. And it was the first kind of concrete demonstration of
    0:23:21 this, Einstein’s most famous equation. So all of this comes together. But the story of – they still
    0:23:27 weren’t called black holes. This is 1939. And they had these very long-winded ways of describing the end
    0:23:33 state, the catastrophic end state of gravitational collapse. But what you have to imagine is, as this
    0:23:40 star collapses, so now, so what’s the sun? The sun’s a million and a half kilometers across. So imagine a
    0:23:46 star much bigger than the sun, much bigger radius. And it’s so heavy, it collapses, it’s supernovas,
    0:23:52 what’s left is still maybe 10 times the mass of the sun, just what’s left in that core. And it continues
    0:23:58 to collapse. And when that reaches about 60 kilometers across, like just imagine, 10 times the mass of the
    0:24:05 sun city-sized. That is a really dense object. And now the black hole essentially has begun to form,
    0:24:12 meaning the curve in spacetime is so tremendous that not even light can escape. The event horizon forms,
    0:24:19 but the event horizon is almost imprinted on the spacetime. Because the star can’t sit there in that
    0:24:25 dense state any more than it can race outward at the speed of light. Because even light is forced to rain
    0:24:31 inwards. So the star continues to fall. And that’s the magic part. The star leaves the event horizon
    0:24:39 behind. And it continues to fall. And it falls into the interior of the black hole. Where it goes,
    0:24:47 nobody really knows. But it’s gone from sight. It goes dark. There’s this quote by John Wheeler,
    0:24:51 who’s like granddaddy of American relativity, and he has a line that’s something to the effect.
    0:24:58 The star, like the Cheshire Cat, fades from view. One leaves behind, only its grin. The other,
    0:25:05 only its gravitational attraction. And he was giving a lecture. It’s actually above Tom’s restaurant,
    0:25:12 you know, from Seinfeld near Columbia in New York. There was a place, or there still is a place there,
    0:25:20 where people were giving lectures about astrophysics. And it’s 1967. Wheeler is exhaustively saying this
    0:25:26 loaded term, the end state of catastrophic gravitational collapse. And rumor is that
    0:25:33 someone shouts from the back row, “Well, how about black hole?” And apparently, he then foists this
    0:25:38 term on the world. Wheeler had a way of doing that. Well, I love terms like that. Big bang,
    0:25:44 black hole. There’s some, I mean, it’s just pointing out the elephant in the room and calling
    0:25:51 it an elephant. It is a black hole. That’s a pretty accurate and deep description. I just wanted to
    0:25:56 point out that the, just looking for the first time, it’s a 1939 paper from Oppenheimer. It’s like
    0:26:00 two pages, it’s like three pages. Oh yeah, it’s gorgeous. The simplicity of some of these,
    0:26:07 that’s so gangster. Just revolutionize all of physics with, you know, Einstein did that multiple
    0:26:12 times in a simple year. When all thermonuclear sources of energy are exhausted, a sufficiently
    0:26:19 heavy star will collapse. That’s an opener. Unless fission due to rotation, the radiation of mass or the
    0:26:25 blowing off of mass by radiation reduced the star’s mass to orders of that of the sun, this contraction
    0:26:31 will continue indefinitely. And it goes on that way. Yeah. Now I have to say, Wheeler, who actually
    0:26:37 coins the term black hole, gives Oppenheimer quite a terrible time about this. He thinks he’s wrong.
    0:26:44 And they entered what has sometimes been described as kind of a bitter, I don’t know if you would
    0:26:52 actually say feud, but there were bad feelings. And Wheeler actually spent decades saying Oppenheimer
    0:26:58 was wrong. And eventually with his computer work, that early work that Wheeler was doing with computers,
    0:27:05 when he was also trying to understand nuclear weapons and in peacetime, found themselves returning
    0:27:12 again to these astrophysical questions, decided that actually Oppenheimer had been right. He thought it was
    0:27:18 too simplistic, too idealized to set up that they had used. And that if you, you looked at something that
    0:27:24 was more realistic and more complicated that it, it just simply, it just would go away. And in fact,
    0:27:30 he draws the opposite conclusion. And there’s a story that Oppenheimer was sitting outside of the auditorium
    0:27:37 when Wheeler was coming forth with his declaration that in fact, black holes were the likely end state of
    0:27:43 gravitational collapse for very, very heavy stars. And when asked about it, Oppenheimer sort of said,
    0:27:45 well, I’ve moved on to other things.
    0:27:50 – Because you’ve written in many places about the human beings behind the science.
    0:27:54 I have to ask you about this, about nuclear weapons, where it’s the greatest of physicists
    0:28:01 coming together to create this most terrifying and powerful of a technology. And now I get to talk to
    0:28:09 the world leaders for whom this technology is part of the tools that is used, perhaps implicitly,
    0:28:16 on the chessboard of geopolitics. What can you say, as a person who’s a physicist and who have studied the
    0:28:21 physicists and written about the physicists, the humans behind this, about this moment in human history,
    0:28:30 when physicists came together and created this weapon that’s powerful enough to destroy all of human civilization?
    0:28:39 – I think it’s an excruciating moment in the history of science. And people talk about
    0:28:48 Heisenberg who stayed in Germany and worked for the Nazis in their own attempt to build the bomb. There
    0:28:55 was this kind of hopeful talk that maybe Heisenberg had intentionally derailed the nuclear weapons program,
    0:29:01 but I think that’s been largely discredited, that he would have made the bomb, could he, had he not made some
    0:29:07 really kind of simple errors in his original estimates about how much material would be required or how they
    0:29:16 would get over the energy barriers. And that’s a terrifying thought. I don’t know that any of us can
    0:29:23 really put ourselves in that position of imagining that we’re faced with that quandary, having to take the initiative to
    0:29:29 participate in thinking of a way that quantum mechanics can kill people, and then making the bomb. I think
    0:29:36 overwhelmingly physicists today feel we should not continue in the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
    0:29:40 Very few theoretical physicists want to see this continue.
    0:29:46 – That moment in history, the Soviet Union had incredible scientists, Nazi Germany had incredible
    0:29:52 scientists, and the United States had incredible scientists. And it’s very easy to imagine that
    0:29:57 one of those three would have created the bomb first, not the United States.
    0:29:57 – Yes.
    0:30:03 – And how different would the world be? The game theory of that, I think,
    0:30:11 say it’s the probability is 33% that it was the United States. If the Soviet Union had the bomb,
    0:30:20 I think they would have used it in a much more terrifying way in the European theater and
    0:30:25 maybe turn on the United States. And obviously with Hitler, he would have used it. I think there’s
    0:30:30 no question he would have used it to kill hundreds of millions of people.
    0:30:34 – In the game theory version, this was the least harmful outcome.
    0:30:35 – Yes. – Yes.
    0:30:42 – But there is no outcome with no bomb that any game theorist would, I think, would play.
    0:30:47 – But I think if we just remove the geopolitics and the ideology and the evil dictators,
    0:30:56 all of those people are just scientists. I think they don’t necessarily even think about the ideology.
    0:31:05 And it’s a deep lesson about the connection between great science and the annoying, sometimes evil
    0:31:13 politicians that use that science for means that are either good or bad. And the scientists perhaps don’t,
    0:31:18 boy, do they even have control of how that science is used? It’s hard.
    0:31:24 – They don’t have control, right. Once it’s made, it’s no longer scientific reasoning that dictates the use.
    0:31:35 – Or it’s restraint. But I will say that I do believe that it wasn’t a 31/3 down the line because
    0:31:39 America was different. And I think that’s something we have to think about right now in this particular
    0:31:47 climate. So many scientists fled here. They fled to here. Americans weren’t fleeing to Nazi Germany.
    0:31:59 They came here and they were motivated by… It’s more than a patriotism. I mean, it was a patriotism,
    0:32:04 obviously, but it was sort of more than that. It was really understanding the threat of Europe, what was
    0:32:13 going on in Europe and, and what that life’s, how quickly it turned, how quickly this free-spirited Berlin
    0:32:23 culture, you know, was suddenly in this repressive and terrifying regime. So I think that it was a much
    0:32:25 higher chance that it happened here in America.
    0:32:31 – Yeah, there’s something about the American system. The, you know, it’s cliche to say, but the freedom,
    0:32:36 all the different individual freedoms that enable a very vibrant, at its best, a very vibrant scientific
    0:32:38 community. And that’s really exciting. – Absolutely.
    0:32:42 – To scientists. And it’s very valuable to maintain that. – Right.
    0:32:49 – The vibrancy of the debate of funding those mechanisms. – Absolutely. The world flocked here.
    0:32:54 And that won’t be the case if we no longer have intellectual freedom.
    0:32:59 – Yeah, there’s something interesting to think about. The tension, the Cold War between China
    0:33:03 and the United States in the 21st century. You know, some of those same questions, some of those ideas will
    0:33:10 rise up again. And we want to make sure that there’s a vibrant, free exchange of scientific ideas.
    0:33:14 – Yes. And I believe most Nobel Prizes come from the United States, right?
    0:33:16 – Oh yeah. I don’t have the number.
    0:33:19 – But it’s disproportionately so. – It’s disproportionately so.
    0:33:23 And in fact, a lot of them from particle physics came from the Bronx.
    0:33:28 And they were European immigrants. – How do you explain this?
    0:33:31 – They fled Europe precisely because of the geopolitics we’re describing.
    0:33:34 – Yeah. – And so instead of being Nobel Prize winners
    0:33:38 from the Soviet Union or from the Eastern Bloc, they were from the Bronx.
    0:33:43 – And that’s the thing you write about and we’ll return to it time and time again. You know,
    0:33:47 science is done by humans. And some of those humans are fascinating. There’s tensions, there’s
    0:33:52 battles, there’s some are loners, some are great collaborators, some are tormented,
    0:33:56 some are easy going, all this kind of stuff. And that’s the beautiful thing about it we forget
    0:34:01 sometimes is that it’s humans. And humans are messy and complicated and beautiful and all of that.
    0:34:04 – Yeah. – So what were we talking about?
    0:34:06 – Oh. – The stars collapsing.
    0:34:14 – Okay. So can we just return to the collapse of a star that forms a black hole?
    0:34:22 At which point does the super dense thing become nothing if we can just like linger on this concept?
    0:34:30 – Yeah. So if I were falling into a black hole and I tried really fast, right as I crossed this empty
    0:34:36 region, but this demarcation, I happened to know where it was. I calculated because there’s no line
    0:34:43 there. There’s no sign that it’s there. There’s no signpost. I could emit a little light pulse and try
    0:34:47 to send it outward exactly at the event horizon. So it’s racing outward at the speed of light.
    0:34:53 It can hover there because from my perspective, it’s very strange. The space time is like a waterfall
    0:34:58 raining in and I’m being dragged in with that waterfall. I can’t stop at the event horizon. It comes,
    0:35:04 it goes, it’s behind me really quickly. That light beam can try to sit there because it’s like,
    0:35:09 it’s like a fish swimming against the Niagara, you know, swimming against the waterfall.
    0:35:10 – It’s like stuck there. – But it’s like stuck there.
    0:35:15 And so that’s one way you can have a little signpost. You know, if you fly by, you think
    0:35:19 it’s moving at the speed of light. It flies past you at the speed of light, but it’s sitting right
    0:35:24 there at the event horizon. – So you’re falling back, across the event horizon, right at that point,
    0:35:26 you shoot outwards, a photon. – Yes.
    0:35:29 – And it’s just stuck there. – It just gets stuck there.
    0:35:35 Now it’s very unstable. So the star can’t sit there is the point. It just can’t. So it rains
    0:35:41 inward with this waterfall. But from the outside, all we should ever really care about is the event
    0:35:46 horizon. Because I can’t know what happens to it. It could be pure matter and antimatter thrown
    0:35:52 together, which annihilates into photons on the inside and loses all its mass into the energy of
    0:35:56 light. It won’t matter to me because I can’t know anything about what happened on the inside.
    0:36:01 – Okay. Can we just like linger on this? So what models do we have about what happens on the inside
    0:36:05 of the black hole at that moment? So I guess that one of the intuitions, one of the big reminders
    0:36:12 that you’re giving to us is like, “Hey, we know very little about what can happen on the inside of a
    0:36:17 black hole?” And that’s why we have to be careful about making, it’s better to think about the black
    0:36:25 hole as an event horizon. But what can we know? And what do we know about the physics of space-time
    0:36:30 inside the black hole? – I don’t mind being incautious about thinking about what the math
    0:36:39 tells us. So I’m not such an observer. I am very theoretical in my work. It’s really pen on paper a
    0:36:46 lot. These are thought experiments that I think we can perform and contemplate. Whether or not we’ll
    0:36:53 ever know is another question. And so one of the most beautiful things that we suspect happens on the
    0:37:00 inside of a black hole is that space and time, in some sense, swap places. So while I’m on the outside
    0:37:07 of the black hole, let’s say I’m in a nice comfortable space station, this black hole is maybe 10 times the
    0:37:12 mass of the sun, 60 kilometers across. I could be 100 kilometers out. That’s very, very close.
    0:37:19 Orbiting quite safely. No big deal. You know? Hanging out. I don’t bug the black hole. The black hole
    0:37:26 doesn’t bug me. It won’t suck me up like a vacuum or anything crazy. But my astronaut friend jumps in.
    0:37:33 As they cross the event horizon, what I’m calling space, I’m looking on the outside at this
    0:37:40 spherical shadow of the black hole cast by maybe light around it. It’s a shadow because everything
    0:37:48 gets too close, falls in. It’s just this contrast against a bright sky. I think, oh, there’s a center
    0:37:53 of a sphere. And in the center of the sphere is the singularity. It’s a point in space from my
    0:37:58 perspective. But from the perspective of the astronaut who falls in, it’s actually a point in time.
    0:38:06 So their notions of space and time have rotated so completely that what I’m calling a direction
    0:38:11 in space towards the center of the black hole, like the center of a physical sphere, they’re going to
    0:38:15 tell me what they can’t tell me, but they’re going to come to the conclusion, oh no, that’s not a location
    0:38:24 in space. That’s a location in time. In other words, the singularity ends up in their future. And they can no more
    0:38:31 avoid the singularity than they can avoid time coming their way. So there’s no shenanigans you can do once
    0:38:37 you’re inside the black hole to try to skirt it, the singularity. You can’t set yourself up in orbit
    0:38:44 around it. You can’t try to fire rockets and stay away from it because it’s in your future. And there’s an
    0:38:50 inevitable moment when you will hit it. Usually for a stellar mass black hole, we think it’s microseconds.
    0:38:53 Microseconds to get from the event horizon to the…
    0:38:54 To the singularity.
    0:39:02 To the singularity. Oh boy. Oh boy. So that’s describing from your astronaut friend’s perspective.
    0:39:06 Yes. From their perspective, the singularity’s in their future.
    0:39:12 But from your perspective, what do you see when your friend falls into the black hole and you’re
    0:39:21 chilling outside and watching? So one way to think about this is to think that as you’re approaching
    0:39:29 the black hole, the astronaut’s space time is rotating relative to your space time. So let’s say right
    0:39:36 now, my left is your right. We’re not shocked by the fact that there’s this relativity in left and
    0:39:41 right. It’s completely understood. And I can perform a spatial rotation to align my left with your
    0:39:51 left. Right now, I’ve completely rotated left out. Right. If I just want to draw a kind of
    0:39:55 compass diagram, not a compass diagram, but you know, at the top of maps, there’s a north, south,
    0:40:02 east, west. But now time is up, down, and one direction of space is, let’s say, east, west. As you
    0:40:07 approach the black hole, it’s as though you’re rotating in space time, is one way of thinking about
    0:40:13 that. So what is the effect of that? The effect of that is, as this astronaut gets closer and closer
    0:40:22 to the event horizon, part of their space is rotated into my time, and part of their time is rotated into
    0:40:31 my space. So in other words, their clocks seem to be less aligned with my time. And the overall effect is
    0:40:37 that their time seems to dilate. The spacing between ticks on the clock of their watch,
    0:40:47 let’s say, on the face of their watch, is elongated, dilated, relative to mine. And it seems to me that
    0:40:51 their watches are running slowly, even though they were made in the same factory as mine, they were both
    0:40:57 synchronized beautifully in their excellent Swiss watches. It seems as though time is elapsing
    0:41:04 more slowly for my companion. And likewise, for them, it seems like mine’s going really fast.
    0:41:13 So years could elapse in my space station, my plants come and go, they die, I age faster, I’ve got gray
    0:41:22 hair. And they’re falling in, and it’s been minutes in their frame of reference. Flowers in their little
    0:41:29 rocket ship haven’t rotted, they don’t have gray hair, their biological clocks have slown down relative
    0:41:35 to ours. Eventually, at the event horizon, it’s so extreme, it’s so slow, it’s as though their clocks
    0:41:42 have stopped altogether, from my point of view. And that’s to say that it’s as though their time is
    0:41:48 completely rotated into my space. And this is connected with the idea that inside the black hole
    0:41:57 space and time have switched places. So I might see them hover there for millennia. Other astronauts
    0:42:05 could be born on my space station, generations could be populated there watching this poor astronaut never
    0:42:06 fall in.
    0:42:14 So basically, time almost comes to a standstill. But we still, they do fall in.
    0:42:19 Right, they do fall in eventually. Now that’s because they have some mass of their own.
    0:42:19 Yeah.
    0:42:27 So they’re not a perfectly light particle. And so they deform the event horizon a little bit. You will
    0:42:33 actually see the event horizon bobble and absorb the astronaut. So in some finite time,
    0:42:35 the astronaut will actually fall in.
    0:42:39 So it’s like this weird space-time bubble that we have around us.
    0:42:46 And then there’s a very big space-time curvature bubble thing from the black hole,
    0:42:50 and there’s a nice swirly type situation going on, and that’s how you get sucked up.
    0:42:51 Yeah.
    0:42:55 So if you’re a perfect, like, infinitely small particle, you would just be–
    0:42:56 Take longer and longer.
    0:43:00 And probably just be stuck there or something. But no, there’s quantum mechanics.
    0:43:05 Mm-hmm. Eventually, you’ll fall in. Any perturbation will only go one way. It’s unstable
    0:43:13 in one direction, in one direction only. But it’s really important to remember that,
    0:43:18 from the point of view of the astronaut, not much time has passed at all. You just sail right across,
    0:43:23 as far as you’re concerned. And nothing dramatic happens there. You might not even realize you’ve
    0:43:27 come to the event horizon. You might not even realize you’ve crossed the event horizon,
    0:43:34 because there’s nothing there. Right? This is an empty region of space-time. There’s
    0:43:39 no marker to tell you you’ve reached this very dangerous point of no return. You can fire your
    0:43:46 rockets like hell when you’re on the outside and maybe even escape. Right? But once you get to that
    0:43:53 point, there’s no amount of energy. All the energy in the universe will not save you from this demise.
    0:43:59 You know, there’s different size black holes. And maybe can we talk about the experience that you
    0:44:02 have falling into a black hole, depending on what the size of the black hole is?
    0:44:13 Yeah. Because as I understand, the bigger it is, the less drastic the experience of falling into it.
    0:44:20 Yeah. That might surprise people. The bigger it is, the less noticeable it is that you’ve crossed the
    0:44:28 event horizon. One way to think about it is curvature is less noticeable the bigger it is. So if I’m standing
    0:44:34 on a basketball, I’m very aware I’m balancing on a curved surface. My two feet are in different
    0:44:39 locations and I really notice. But on the earth, you actually have to be kind of clever to deduce that
    0:44:46 the earth is curved. The bigger the planet, the less you’re going to notice the curvature, the global
    0:44:51 curvature. And it’s the same thing with a black hole, a huge, huge black hole. It just kind of feels
    0:44:57 like just flat. You don’t really notice. I’m trying to figure out how the physics, because if you don’t
    0:45:03 notice. And there’s nothing there. But the physics is weird. In your frame of reference.
    0:45:08 No. Well, so another cool thing. So I’d like to dispel myths.
    0:45:16 Yeah. Do you need a minute? You’re holding your head. There’s a sense like you should be able to
    0:45:21 know when you’re inside of a black hole, when you’ve crossed the event horizon. But no, from your frame of
    0:45:27 reference, you might not be able to know. Yeah. At first, at least, you might not realize what’s
    0:45:33 happened. There are some hints. For instance, black holes are dark from the outside, but they’re not
    0:45:42 necessarily dark on the inside. So this is a kind of fascinating that your experience could be that it’s
    0:45:48 quite bright inside the black hole. Because all the light from the galaxy can be shining in behind
    0:45:54 you. And it’s focusing down, because you’re all approaching this really focused region in the
    0:46:00 interior. And so you actually see a bright, white flash of light as you approach the singularity.
    0:46:06 You know, I kind of, I joke that it’s a, you know, it’s like a near-death experience. We see the light
    0:46:11 at the end of the tunnel. So you would see millennia pass on Earth, you could see the evolution of
    0:46:17 the entire galaxy, you know, one big bright flash of light. So it’s like a near-death experience,
    0:46:19 but it’s a definitely a total death experience.
    0:46:24 It goes pretty fast, but you looking out, you looking out, everything’s going super fast.
    0:46:33 Yeah. The clocks, um, on the Earth, on the space station seem to be progressing very rapidly relative
    0:46:39 to yours. The light can catch up to you and you get this bright beam of light as you see the evolution
    0:46:47 of the galaxy unfold. And, um, I mean, it sort of depends on the size of the black hole and how long
    0:46:52 you have to hang around. The bigger the black hole, the longer it takes you to expire in the center.
    0:46:58 Obviously the human, uh, sensory system, we’re not able to process that information correctly.
    0:47:01 Right. It would be a microsecond and a, right, that would be too fast.
    0:47:06 Yeah. But it would be, wow, it would be so cool to get that information.
    0:47:10 But a big black hole, you could actually, you know, hang around for some months.
    0:47:18 So yeah, what’s, uh, how are small black holes or just supermassive, uh, black holes formed?
    0:47:23 It’s just so people can kind of load that in. Are they, are they all, is it always a star?
    0:47:31 No. So this is also why it’s important to think of black holes more abstractly. They are something
    0:47:37 very profound in the universe and there are probably multiple ways to make black holes. Um,
    0:47:43 making them with stars is most plentiful. There could be hundreds of millions, maybe even a billion
    0:47:50 black holes in our Milky Way galaxy alone, that many stars. It’s only about 1% of stars that will, um,
    0:47:57 end their lives in, in, in a death state that is a black hole. But we now see, and this was really
    0:48:05 quite a surprise that there are supermassive black holes. They’re billions or even hundreds of billions
    0:48:12 of times the mass of the sun and, um, uh, millions to tens of billions, maybe even hundreds of billions.
    0:48:19 So extremely massive. We don’t think that the universe has had enough time to make them from stars that just
    0:48:25 merge. We know that two black holes can merge and make a bigger black hole. And then those can merge and make
    0:48:30 a bigger black hole. We don’t think there’s been enough time for that. So it’s suspected that they’re
    0:48:37 formed very early, maybe even a hundred, a hundred, a few hundred million years after the big bang and
    0:48:44 that they’re formed directly by collapsing out of primordial stuff that there’s a direct collapse
    0:48:49 right into the black hole. So like in the, in the very early universe,
    0:48:57 these are primordial black holes from the stars, not quite wait, how, how do you get from that soup
    0:48:58 black holes right away?
    0:49:06 Right. So it’s odd, but it’s weirdly easier to make a big black hole out of something that’s just
    0:49:11 the density of air. If it’s really, really as big as what we’re talking about. So in some sense,
    0:49:15 if they’re just allowed to directly collapse very early in the universe’s history, they can do that
    0:49:23 more easily. Um, and it’s so much so that we think that there’s one of these super massive black holes
    0:49:29 in the center of every galaxy. So they’re not rare and we know where they are. They’re in the nuclei of
    0:49:37 galaxies. So they’re bound to the very early formation of entire galaxies in, um, in a really surprising and
    0:49:39 deeply connected way.
    0:49:46 I wonder if the, like the chicken or the egg, is it, uh, like how critical, how essential are the
    0:49:48 super massive black holes to the formation of galaxies?
    0:49:54 Yeah. I mean, it’s ongoing, right? It’s ongoing. Which came first, the black hole or the galaxy?
    0:50:03 Um, probably, um, big early stars, which were just made out of hydrogen and helium from the big bang.
    0:50:08 Um, there wasn’t anything else, not much of anything else. Um, those early stars were forming and then
    0:50:15 maybe the black holes and kind of the galaxies were like these gassy clouds around them. Um, but there’s
    0:50:23 probably a deep relationship between the black hole powering jets, these jets blowing material out of the
    0:50:32 galaxy that, that shaped galaxies, maybe kind of curbed their growth. Um, and so I think the mechanisms are
    0:50:39 still, are still ongoing attempts to understand exactly the ordering of these things.
    0:50:44 Can we get back to space-time? Just going back to the beginning of the 20th century,
    0:50:49 how do you imagine space-time? How are we as human beings supposed to visualize and think about space-time
    0:50:55 where, you know, time is just another dimension in this 4G space that combines space and time?
    0:50:59 Because we’ve been talking about morphing in all kinds of different ways, the curvature of space-time.
    0:51:04 Like, how do you, how are we supposed to conceive of it? How do you think of it?
    0:51:04 Yeah.
    0:51:06 And time is just another dimension?
    0:51:15 There are different ways we can think about it. We can imagine drawing a map of space and treating time
    0:51:21 as another direction in that map. But we’re limited because as three-dimensional beings,
    0:51:26 we can’t really draw four dimensions, which is what I’d require. Three-spatial, because I’m pretty sure
    0:51:32 there’s at least three. I think there’s probably more. But, um, I’m happy just talking about the large
    0:51:42 dimensions, the three we see up-down, right? East-west, north-south, three-spatial dimensions.
    0:51:51 And time is the fourth. Nobody can really visualize it. But we know mathematically how to unpack it on
    0:51:58 paper. I can mathematically suppress one of the spatial dimensions and then I can draw it pretty well. Now,
    0:52:04 the problem is that we’d call it a Euclidean space-time. Euclidean space-time is when all the
    0:52:10 dimensions are orthogonal and are treated equally. Time is not another Euclidean dimension. It’s
    0:52:18 actually a Minkowskian space-time. But it means that the space-time, we’re misrepresenting it when we draw
    0:52:23 it, but we’re misrepresenting it in a way that we deeply understand. I can give you an example. The Earth,
    0:52:30 Earth, I can project onto a flat sheet of paper. I am now misrepresenting a map of the Earth. And I know
    0:52:36 that, but I understand the rules for how to add distances on this misrepresentation because the Earth
    0:52:42 is not a flat sheet of paper. It’s a sphere. And, um, and as long as I understand the rules for how I get
    0:52:49 from the North Pole to the South Pole that I’m moving along really a great arc and I understand that the
    0:52:54 distance is not the distance I would measure on a flat sheet of paper, then I can do a really great
    0:53:00 job with a map and understanding the rules of addition, multiplication, and the geometries, not
    0:53:04 the geometry of a flat sheet of paper. I can do the same thing with space-time. I can draw it on a flat
    0:53:10 sheet of paper, but I know that it’s not actually a flat Euclidean space. And so my rules for measuring
    0:53:18 distances are different than the rules I would use that, for instance, Cartesian rules of geometry,
    0:53:24 I would know to use the correct rules for Minkowski space-time. And, and that will allow me to, to,
    0:53:34 to, to calculate how long, uh, time has elapsed, which is now a kind of a length, a space-time length on my
    0:53:41 map, um, between two relative observers and I will get the correct answer. Um, but only if I use these
    0:53:42 different rules.
    0:53:50 So then what does, according to general relativity, does, uh, objects with mass do to the space-time?
    0:53:58 Right, exactly. So Einstein struggled for this completely general theory, not a specific solution
    0:54:05 like a black hole or an expanding space-time or galaxies make lenses or, those are all solutions.
    0:54:12 That’s why what he did was so enormous. It’s an entire paradigm that says over here is matter and
    0:54:18 energy. I’m going to call that the right-hand side of the equation. Everything on the right-hand
    0:54:23 side of Einstein’s equations is how matter and energy are distributed in space-time. On the
    0:54:31 left-hand side tells you how space and time deform in response to that matter and energy. And it can be
    0:54:36 impossible to solve some of those equations. What was so amazing about what Schwarzschild did is he
    0:54:43 found this very elegant, simple solution within like a month of reading, um, this final formulation.
    0:54:49 But Einstein didn’t go through and try to find all the solutions. He sort of gave it to us,
    0:54:55 right? He shared this. And then lots of people since have been scrambling to try to,
    0:55:00 ah, I can predict the curvature of the space-time if I tell you how the matter and energy is laid out.
    0:55:07 If it’s all compact in a spherical system like a sun or even a black hole, I can understand the curves in
    0:55:13 the space-time around it. I can solve for the, for the shape of the space-time. I can also say,
    0:55:18 well, what if the universe is full of gas or light and it’s all kind of uniform everywhere,
    0:55:23 and I’ll find a different and equally surprising solution, which is that the universe would expand
    0:55:29 in response to that, that it’s not static, that the distances between galaxies would grow. This was a
    0:55:37 huge surprise, Einstein. Um, so all of these consequences of his theory, you know, came with
    0:55:44 revelations that were not at all obvious when he first wrote down, um, the general theory.
    0:55:49 And he was afraid to take the consequences of that theory seriously, which is a-
    0:55:49 Often.
    0:55:58 The theory itself in its scope and grandeur and power is scary, so I can understand. Then there’s,
    0:56:03 you know, the, um, the edges of the theory where it falls apart, the consequences of the theory that
    0:56:07 are extreme. It’s hard to take seriously. So you can sort of empathize.
    0:56:14 Yeah. He very much resisted the expansion. So if you think about 1905, when he’s writing
    0:56:19 these sequence of unbelievable papers as a 25 year old who can’t get a job, you know,
    0:56:23 as a physicist, and he writes all of these remarkable papers on relativity and quantum mechanics.
    0:56:29 Um, and then even in 1915, 16, he does not know that there are other galaxies out there. This,
    0:56:37 this was not known. People had mused about it. Um, there were these kind of smudges on the sky that
    0:56:43 people contemplated. What if there are other island universes, you know, going back to Kant thought about
    0:56:49 this, but it wasn’t until Hubble. It really wasn’t until the late twenties, um, that it’s confirmed that
    0:56:57 there are other galaxies. Wow. Yeah. He didn’t obviously, there’s so much we think of now that
    0:57:06 he didn’t think of. So there’s no big bang static universe, but these are all connected. Wow. Yeah.
    0:57:13 So he’s operating on very little information, very little information. That’s absolutely true. Actually,
    0:57:19 one of the things I like to point out is the idea of relativity was foisted on people in this
    0:57:24 kind of cultural way, but there’s many ways in which you could call it a theory of absolutism.
    0:57:34 And, um, the way Einstein got there with so little information, um, is by adhering to certain very
    0:57:41 strict absolutes, like the absolute limit of the speed of light and the absolute constancy of the
    0:57:49 speed of light, which was completely bizarre when it was first, uh, discovered really that was observed.
    0:57:56 There were experiments trying to figure out, um, you know, what would the relative speed of light be?
    0:58:01 It’s the only, it’s really only massless particles have this property that they have an absolute speed.
    0:58:02 And if you think about it, it’s incredibly strange.
    0:58:04 Yeah. It’s really, incredibly strange.
    0:58:10 And then so, so from, from theoretical perspective, he, he’s, he takes that seriously.
    0:58:14 He takes it very seriously and everyone else is trying to come up with models to make it go away,
    0:58:19 um, to make, uh, the speed of light be a little bit more reasonable, like everything else in the
    0:58:24 universe. Um, you know, if I run at a car, two cars coming at each other, they’re coming at each other
    0:58:30 faster than if one of them stops. It’s really a basic observation of reality, right? Here, this is
    0:58:37 saying that if I’m racing at a light beam, um, and you’re standing still relative to the source,
    0:58:43 uh, we’ll measure the same exact speed of light. Very strange. And he gets to relativity by saying,
    0:58:51 well, what speed speed is distance. It’s space over time. It’s how far you travel. Um,
    0:58:56 it’s the space you travel in a certain duration of time. And he said, well, I bet something must be
    0:59:03 wrong then with space and time. So this is an enormous leap. He’s willing to give up the absolute
    0:59:09 character of space and time in favor of keeping the speed of light constant.
    0:59:18 how was he able to intuit a world of curved space time? Like, I think it’s like one of the
    0:59:28 most special leaps in human history, right? Cause you’re like, it’s very, very, very difficult to
    0:59:35 make that kind of leap. I’ll tell you, it took me, I think a long time to, I can’t say this is how he
    0:59:43 got there exactly. It’s not as though I studied the historical accounts or, or his description of
    0:59:50 his internal states. This is more having learned the subject, how I try to tell people how to get
    0:59:56 there in a few short steps. Um, one is to start with the equivalence principle, which he called the
    1:00:04 the happiest thought of his life. And the equivalence principle comes pretty early on in his thinking.
    1:00:10 And, and, um, it starts with something like this. Like right now, I think I’m feeling gravity because
    1:00:15 I’m sitting in this chair and I feel the pressure of the chair and it’s stopping me from falling and, um,
    1:00:20 lie down in a bed and I feel heavy on the bed. And I think of that as gravity. And Einstein has a
    1:00:28 beautiful ability to remove all of these extraneous factors, including atoms.
    1:00:34 So let’s imagine instead that you’re in an elevator and you feel heavy on your feet because the floor of
    1:00:40 the elevator is resisting your fall. But I want to remove the elevator. What does the elevator have
    1:00:46 to do with fundamental properties of gravity? So I cut the cable. Now I’m falling, but the elevator
    1:00:53 is falling at the same rate as me. So now I’m floating in the elevator. And if this happened to
    1:01:00 me, if I woke up in this state of falling or floating in the elevator, I might not know if I was an empty
    1:01:06 space, just floating. Um, or if I was falling around the earth, there would actually, they’re equivalent
    1:01:12 situations. I would not be able to tell the difference. I’m actually, when I get rid of the elevator in this
    1:01:20 way by cutting the cable, I’m actually experiencing weightlessness. And that weightlessness is the
    1:01:28 purest experience of gravity. And, um, and so this idea of falling is actually fundamental. It’s how we
    1:01:34 talk about it all the time. The earth is in a free fall around the sun. It’s actually falling. It’s not
    1:01:40 firing engines, right? It’s just, it’s just falling all the time, but it’s just cruising so fast.
    1:01:46 So actually, yeah, God, you said so many profound. So one of them is really one of the ways to
    1:01:53 experience space time is to be falling, to be falling. That is the purest experience of gravity.
    1:02:00 The experience of gravity, uh, unfettered, uninterrupted by atoms is weightlessness.
    1:02:04 Yeah. That observation, no, it has an unhappy ending, the elevator story,
    1:02:11 because of atoms again, that’s the fault of the atoms in your body interacting electromagnetically
    1:02:17 with the crust of the earth or at the bottom of the building or whatever it is. Um, but this period
    1:02:23 of free fall. So the first observation is that that is the purest experience of gravity. Now I can convince
    1:02:29 you that things fall along curved paths because I could take, uh, you know, a pen and if I throw it,
    1:02:36 we both know it’s going to follow an arc and it’s going to follow an arc until atoms interfere again
    1:02:42 and it hits the ground. But while it’s in free fall, experiencing gravity at its purest,
    1:02:51 what the Einsteinian description would say is it is following the natural curve in space time inscribed
    1:03:01 by the earth. So the earth’s mass and shape curves the paths in space. And then those curvatures tell you
    1:03:08 how to fall the paths along which you should fall when you’re falling freely. And so the earth has found
    1:03:15 itself on a free fall that happens to be a closed circle, but it’s, it’s actually falling. The
    1:03:19 International Space Station uses this principle all the time. They get the space station up there
    1:03:23 and then they turn off the engines. Can you imagine how expensive it would be if they had to fuel that
    1:03:28 thing at all times, right? They turn off the engines. They’re just falling. Yeah, they’re falling.
    1:03:33 And they’re not that far up. Um, there, there are certainly people sometimes say, oh,
    1:03:37 they’re so far away. They don’t feel gravity. Oh, absolutely. If you stopped the space
    1:03:44 station, it’s going like 17,500 miles an hour, something like that. If you were to stop that,
    1:03:50 it would drop like a stone right to the earth. So they’re in a state of constant free fall.
    1:03:56 And they’re falling along a curved path. And that curved path is a result of curving space time.
    1:04:02 And, uh, that particular curve path is calculated in such a way that it curves onto itself. So you’re
    1:04:07 orbiting. Right. So it has to be cruising at a certain speed. So once you get it at that
    1:04:13 cruising speed, you turn off the engines. But yeah, to be able to visualize at the beginning of the 20th
    1:04:25 century, that not, you know, that free falling in, in, in curved space time. Boy, the human mind is
    1:04:33 capable of things. I mean, some of that is, um, constructing thought experiments that collide with
    1:04:40 our understanding of reality. Maybe in the collisions and the contradictions, you try to think of extreme
    1:04:46 thought experiments that, that, uh, exacerbate that contradiction and see like, okay, what is
    1:04:52 actually, is there another model that can incorporate this? But to be able to do that, I mean, it’s, it’s
    1:04:59 kind of inspiring because, you know, there’s probably another general relativity out there in all,
    1:05:06 not just in physics, in all lines of work, in all scientific pursuits. There’s certain theories
    1:05:14 where you’re like, okay, I just explained like a big elephant in the room here that everybody just
    1:05:21 kind of didn’t even think about. There could be, uh, for stuff we know about in physics, there could
    1:05:26 be stuff like that for the origin of life on earth. Yeah. Everyone’s like, yeah, okay. Everyone’s like,
    1:05:34 in polite company, it’s like, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Somehow it started. Right. Nobody knows.
    1:05:39 I find it wild that that’s so elusive. Yeah. It’s, it’s strange. In the lab, you can’t replicate.
    1:05:42 It’s strange that it’s so elusive. I think it’s a general relativity thing. There’s going to be
    1:05:48 something, it’s going to involve aliens and wormholes and dimensions that we don’t quite understand,
    1:05:56 or some, some field that’s bigger than like, it’s possible, maybe not. It’s possible that it has,
    1:06:02 it’s a field that is different, that will feel fundamentally different from chemistry and biology.
    1:06:08 It’ll be maybe through physics. Again, maybe the key to the origin of life is in physics.
    1:06:14 And the same there, it’s like a weird neighbor is consciousness. It’s like, all right.
    1:06:15 A weird neighbor. Yeah.
    1:06:24 It’s like, okay. So we all know that life started on earth somehow. Nobody knows how. We all know that
    1:06:31 we’re conscious. We have a subjective experience of things. Nobody understands that. The people have
    1:06:38 ideas and so on. Right. But it’s such a dark, sort of, we’re entering a dark room where a bunch of
    1:06:43 people are whispering about like, hey, what’s in this room? But nobody, nobody has a effing clue.
    1:06:49 So, and then somebody comes along with a general relativity kind of conception where like it
    1:06:55 reconceives everything. And you’re like, ah, it’s like a watershed moment. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
    1:07:00 It’s there. And until it’s there, we’re living in the, we’re living in a time until that theory comes
    1:07:07 along. And, uh, it would be obvious in retrospect, but right now we’re right. Well, this, it was obvious
    1:07:14 to no one that space time was curved, but even Newton understood something wasn’t right.
    1:07:21 So he knew there was something missing. And I think that’s always fascinating when we’re in a
    1:07:27 situation where we’re pressure testing our own ideas. He did something remarkable, Newton did,
    1:07:33 with his theory of gravity, just understanding that the same phenomenon was at work with the earth around
    1:07:40 the sun as the apple falling from the tree. That’s insane. That’s a huge leap. Understanding that mass,
    1:07:46 inertial mass, what makes something hard to push around is the same thing that feels gravity in,
    1:07:53 at least in the Newtonian picture in that simple way. Unbelievable leap. Absolutely genius. But he
    1:07:58 didn’t like that the apple fell from the tree, even though the earth wasn’t touching it.
    1:08:00 Yeah. The action at a distance thing.
    1:08:02 The action at a distance thing.
    1:08:03 That is weird too.
    1:08:05 Well, but that is a really weird.
    1:08:09 It’s really weird. But see, Einstein solves that. Relativity solves that.
    1:08:18 Because it says, the earth created the curve in space. The apple wants to fall freely along it.
    1:08:24 The problem is the tree’s in the way. The tree’s the problem. The tree’s actually accelerating the
    1:08:30 apple. It’s keeping it away from its natural state of weightlessness in a gravitational field. And as
    1:08:34 soon as the tree lets go of it, the apple will simply fall along the curve that exists.
    1:08:38 I would love it if somebody went back to Newton’s time.
    1:08:40 And told him all this?
    1:08:48 Probably some hippie would be like, “Gravity is just curvature in space-time, man.” I wonder if he
    1:08:55 would be able to… I don’t think… Every idea has its time. He might not even be able to load that in.
    1:09:01 I mean, sometimes even the greatest geniuses, I mean, you can’t…
    1:09:04 Mm. It’s too out of context.
    1:09:09 You need to be standing on the shoulders of giants, and on the shoulders of those giants, and so on.
    1:09:14 I heard that Newton used that as an unkind remark to his competitor, Hook.
    1:09:18 Oh, no. The people talk shit even back then.
    1:09:19 Yeah, trash talking.
    1:09:19 I love it.
    1:09:28 It’s one of the hilarious things about humans in general, but scientists too, like these huge minds.
    1:09:35 There’s these moments in history where you’ll see this in universities, but everywhere else too.
    1:09:43 Like you have gigantic minds, obviously also coupled with everybody has an ego. And like sometimes it’s
    1:09:49 just the same soap opera that played out amongst humans everywhere else. And so you’re thinking
    1:09:56 about the biggest cosmological objects and forces and ideas, and you’re still like jealous and…
    1:09:58 Right. I know.
    1:09:58 It’s fascinating.
    1:10:00 Your office is bigger than my office.
    1:10:00 I know.
    1:10:09 This chair, this… Or maybe you got married to this person that I was always in love with,
    1:10:10 and there’s a betrayal of something.
    1:10:11 Right. The one woman in the department.
    1:10:17 Yeah, the one woman in the department. Yeah. And it’s just, I mean, but that is also the fuel
    1:10:20 of innovation, that jealousy, that tension, that’s…
    1:10:24 Well, you know the expression, I’m sure. The battles are so bitter in academia because
    1:10:25 the stakes are so low.
    1:10:30 That’s a beautiful way to phrase it. But also, like, we shouldn’t forget, I mean,
    1:10:37 that I love seeing that even in academia because it’s humanity. The silliness, it’s… There’s
    1:10:43 a degree to academia where the reason you’re able to think about some of these grand ideas
    1:10:46 is because you still allow yourself to be childlike.
    1:10:47 Oh, yeah.
    1:10:49 There’s a childlike nature to be asked a big question.
    1:10:50 Oh, yeah.
    1:10:51 But children can also be like…
    1:10:52 Children.
    1:10:53 Children.
    1:11:00 Children. So, like, you don’t… I think when in a corporate context and maybe the world
    1:11:05 gets… forces you to behave, you’re supposed to be a certain kind of way, there’s some aspects
    1:11:12 and it’s a really beautiful aspect to preserve and to celebrate in academia is, like, you’re
    1:11:19 just allowed to be childlike in your curiosity and your exploration. You’re just exploring, asking
    1:11:20 the biggest questions, so…
    1:11:26 Mm-hmm. The best scientists I know often ask the simplest questions. They’re really…
    1:11:34 First of all, there’s probably some confidence there. But also, they’re never going to lie to
    1:11:40 themselves that they understand something that they don’t understand. So, even this idea that
    1:11:46 Newton didn’t understand the apple falling from the tree. He… Had he lived another couple hundred
    1:11:50 of years, he would have invented relativity because he never would have lied to himself that he understood
    1:11:57 it. He would have kept asking this very simple question. And I think that there is this childlike
    1:11:59 beauty to that. Absolutely.
    1:12:04 Yeah. Just some of the topics… I don’t know why I’m stuck to those two topics, the origin of life
    1:12:05 and consciousness. But there’s some…
    1:12:05 I’ll talk about those.
    1:12:11 Some of the most brilliant people I know are stuck, just like with Newton and Einstein,
    1:12:16 they’re stuck on that. This doesn’t make sense. I know a bunch of brilliant biologists, physicists,
    1:12:18 chemists that are thinking about the origin of life. They’re like, this doesn’t…
    1:12:26 I know how evolution works. I know how the biological systems work, how genetic information propagates,
    1:12:31 but this part, the singularity at the beginning doesn’t make sense. We don’t understand. We can’t
    1:12:39 create it in a lab. Every single day, they’re bothered by it. And that being bothered by that
    1:12:44 tension, by that gap in knowledge is… Yeah, that’s the catalyst. That’s the fuel for the…
    1:12:44 That’s the catalyst.
    1:12:46 For the…
    1:12:46 Discovery.
    1:12:47 For the discovery.
    1:12:51 Yeah, absolutely. The discovery is going to come because somebody couldn’t sleep at night
    1:12:53 and couldn’t rest.
    1:13:00 So in that way, I think black holes are a kind of portal into some of the biggest mysteries of
    1:13:06 our universe. So it’s a good terrain on which to explore these ideas. So can you speak about some
    1:13:10 of the mysteries that the black holes present us with?
    1:13:17 Yeah, I think it’s important to separate the idea that there are these astrophysical states that become
    1:13:25 black holes from being synonymous with black holes, because black holes are kind of this larger
    1:13:33 idea. And they might have been made primordially when the Big Bang happened. And there’s something
    1:13:43 flawless about black holes that makes them fundamental, unlike anything else. So they’re
    1:13:48 flawless in the sense that you can completely understand a black hole by looking at just its charge,
    1:13:54 electric charge, its mass, and its spin. And every black hole with that charge, mass, and spin is
    1:13:59 identical to every other black hole. You can’t be like, “Oh, that one’s mine. I recognize it.”
    1:14:05 It has this little feature, and that’s how I know it’s mine. They’re featureless. You try to put
    1:14:12 Mount Everest on a black hole and it will shake it off in these gravitational waves. It will radiate away
    1:14:19 this imperfection until it settles down to be a perfect black hole again. So there’s something
    1:14:24 about them that is unlike, and another reason why I don’t like to call them objects in a traditional
    1:14:30 sense, unlike anything else in the universe that’s macroscopic. It’s kind of a little bit more like
    1:14:38 a fundamental particle. So an electron is described by a certain short list of properties: charge, mass,
    1:14:45 spin, maybe some other quantum numbers. That’s what it means to be an electron. There’s no electron
    1:14:50 that’s a little bit different. You can’t recognize your electron. They’re all identical in that sense.
    1:14:59 And so in some very abstract way, black holes share something in common with microscopic fundamental
    1:15:08 particles. And so what they tell us about the fundamental laws of physics can be very profound.
    1:15:17 And it’s why even theoretical physicists, mathematical physicists, not just astronomers who use telescopes,
    1:15:26 they rely on the black hole as a terrain to perform their thought experiments. And it’s because there’s
    1:15:31 something fundamental about them. Yeah. General relativity means quantum
    1:15:37 mechanics, means singularity, and sadly, heartbreakingly so, it’s out of reach for
    1:15:42 experiment at this moment, but it’s within reach for theoretical things.
    1:15:45 It’s in reach for thought experiments. For thought experiments.
    1:15:48 Which are quite beautiful. Well, on that topic, I have to ask you about
    1:15:54 the paradox, the information paradox of black holes. What is it?
    1:16:04 So this is what catapulted Hawking’s fame. When he was a young researcher, he was thinking about black
    1:16:10 holes and wanted to just add a little smidge of quantum mechanics, just a little smidge. I wasn’t
    1:16:17 going for full-blown quantum gravity, but kind of just asking, well, what if I allowed this nothing,
    1:16:23 this vacuum, this empty space around the event horizon, the star’s gone, there’s nothing there,
    1:16:28 what if I allowed it to possess sort of ordinary quantum properties, just a little tiny bit,
    1:16:32 you know, nothing dramatic. Don’t go crazy, you know.
    1:16:36 And one of the properties of the vacuum that
    1:16:42 is intriguing is this idea that you can never see the vacuum’s actually completely empty.
    1:16:46 uncertainty. We talked about Heisenberg, you know, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle really kicked
    1:16:52 off a lot of quantum mechanical thinking. It says that you can never exactly know a particle’s
    1:16:58 position simultaneously with its motion, with its momentum. You can know one or the other pretty
    1:17:04 precisely, but not both precisely. And the uncertainty isn’t a lack of ability that will technologically
    1:17:09 overcome. It’s foundational. It says that there’s, in some sense, when it’s in a precise location,
    1:17:15 it is fundamentally no longer in a precise motion. And that uncertainty principle means I can’t precisely
    1:17:24 say a particle is exactly here, but it also means I can’t say it’s not. Okay. And so it led to this idea
    1:17:32 that what do I mean by a vacuum? Because I can’t 100% precisely know. In fact, there’s not really
    1:17:37 meaningful to say that there’s zero particles here. And so what you can say, however, is you can say,
    1:17:45 well, maybe particles kind of froth around in this seething quantum sea of the vacuum.
    1:17:52 Maybe two particles come into existence and they’re entangled in such a way that they cancel out each
    1:17:57 other’s properties. So they, they have the properties of the vacuum. You know, they don’t,
    1:18:02 they don’t destroy the kind of properties of the vacuum because they cancel out each other’s spin,
    1:18:06 maybe each other’s charge, maybe things like that. But they kind of froth around, they come,
    1:18:12 they go, they come, they go. And that’s what we really think is the best that empty space can do
    1:18:17 in a quantum mechanical universe. Now, if you add an event horizon, which as we said,
    1:18:24 is really fundamentally what a black hole is. That’s the most important feature of a black hole.
    1:18:32 The event horizon, if the particles are created slightly on either side of that event horizon,
    1:18:39 now you have a real problem. Okay. Now the pair has been separated by this event horizon.
    1:18:44 Now they can both fall in. That’s okay. But if one falls in and the other doesn’t,
    1:18:51 it’s stuck. It can’t go back into the vacuum because now it has a charge or it has a spin or it has
    1:18:57 something that is no longer the property of that vacuum it came from. It needs its pair to disappear.
    1:19:05 Now it’s stuck. It exists. It’s like you’ve made it real. So in a sense, the black hole steals one of
    1:19:15 these virtual particles and forces the other to live. And if it’ll escape, radiate out to infinity
    1:19:22 and look like, to an observer far away, that the black hole has actually radiated a particle.
    1:19:29 Now the particle did not emanate from inside. It came from the vacuum. It stole it from empty space,
    1:19:34 from the nothingness that is the black hole. Now the reason why this is very tricky
    1:19:40 is because in the process, because of this separation on either side of the event horizon,
    1:19:45 the particle it absorbs, it has to do with the switching of space and time that we talked about,
    1:19:50 but the particle it absorbs, well, from the outside, you might say, oh, it had negative momentum.
    1:19:54 It was falling in from the inside. You say, well, this is actually motion and time. This is energy.
    1:20:01 It has negative energy. And as it absorbs negative energy, its mass goes down. The black hole gets a
    1:20:07 little lighter. And as it continues to do this, the black hole really begins to evaporate. It does more
    1:20:16 than just radiate. It evaporates away. And it’s intriguing because Hawking said, look,
    1:20:19 this is going to look thermal, meaning featureless. It’s going to have no
    1:20:25 information in it. It’s going to be the most informationless possibility you could possibly
    1:20:29 come up with when you’re radiating particles. It’s just going to look like a thermal distribution of
    1:20:34 particles, like a hot body. And the temperature is going to only tell you about the mass, which
    1:20:38 you could tell from outside the black hole anyway. You know the mass of the black hole from the outside.
    1:20:43 So it’s not telling you anything about the black hole. It’s got no information about the black hole.
    1:20:48 Now you have a real problem. And when he first said it, a lot of people describe that not everyone
    1:20:57 understood how really naughty he was being. He did. But some people who love quantum mechanics
    1:21:03 were really annoyed. Okay. People like Lenny Susskind, Gerard Tzuft, Nobel Prize winner,
    1:21:08 they were mad because it suggested something was fundamentally wrong with quantum mechanics,
    1:21:13 if it was right. And the reason why it says there’s something fundamentally wrong with quantum mechanics
    1:21:19 is because quantum mechanics does not allow this. It does not allow quantum information to simply
    1:21:27 evaporate away and poof out of the universe and cease to exist. It’s a violation of something called unitarity,
    1:21:32 but really the idea is it’s the loss of quantum information that’s intolerable. Quantum mechanics was built
    1:21:37 to preserve information. It’s one of the sacred principles. As sacred as conservation of energy,
    1:21:42 in this example, more sacred. Because you can violate conservation of energy with Heisenberg’s
    1:21:51 uncertainty principle, a little tiny bit. But so sacred that it created what became coined as the black
    1:21:57 hole wars, where people were saying, “Look, general relativity is wrong. Something’s wrong with our
    1:22:04 thinking about the event horizon. Or quantum mechanics isn’t what we think it is, but the two are not
    1:22:10 getting along anymore.” And just to tell you how dramatic it is, so the temperature goes down with the
    1:22:15 mass of the black hole, the heavier a black hole, the cooler it is. So we don’t see black holes evaporate.
    1:22:21 They’re way too big. But as they get smaller and smaller, they get hotter and hotter. So as the black
    1:22:27 hole nears the end of the cycle of evaporating away, it takes a very long time, much longer than the age of
    1:22:33 the universe, it will be as though the curtain, the event horizon is yanked up. Like it’ll literally explode
    1:22:41 away. Just boom. And the event horizon in principle would be yanked up. Everything’s gone. All that
    1:22:47 information that went into the black hole, all that sacred quantum stuff, gone. Poof. Okay? Because it’s
    1:22:56 not in the radiation. Because the radiation has no information. And so it was an incredibly productive
    1:23:04 debate. Because in it are the signs of what will make gravity and quantum mechanics play nice together.
    1:23:10 Some quantum theory of gravity. Whatever these clues are, and they’re hard to assemble,
    1:23:15 if you want a quantum gravity theory, it has to correctly predict the temperature of a black hole,
    1:23:20 the entropy of a black hole. It has to have all of these correct features. The black hole is the place
    1:23:26 on which we can test quantum gravity. But it still has not been resolved. It has not been
    1:23:31 fully resolved. I looked up all the different ideas for the resolution. So there’s the information
    1:23:37 loss, which is what you refer to. It’s perhaps the simplest, yes, most erratic resolution is that
    1:23:41 information is truly a loss. This would mean quantum mechanics, as we currently understand it,
    1:23:47 specifically unitarity is incomplete or incorrect under these extreme gravitational conditions.
    1:23:52 I’m unhappy with that. I would not be happy with information loss. I love that it’s telling us
    1:23:57 that there’s this crisis, because I do think it’s giving us the clues. And we have to take them
    1:23:57 seriously.
    1:24:00 For you, the gut is like…
    1:24:01 Unitary is going to be preserved.
    1:24:04 Preserved. So quantum mechanics is holding strong.
    1:24:08 We have to come to the rescue. As Lenny Susskind in his book, Black Hole War says,
    1:24:13 his subtitle is, “My battle with Stephen Hawking to make the world safe for quantum mechanics.”
    1:24:15 I’m getting… I love it.
    1:24:16 It’s something to that effect.
    1:24:21 So then from string theory, one of the resolutions is called Fuzzballs. I love physicists so much.
    1:24:26 Originating from string theory, this proposal suggests that black holes aren’t singularity
    1:24:31 surrounded by empty space and an event horizon. Instead, they are horizonless,
    1:24:38 complex, tangled objects, aka fuzzballs, made of strings and brains roughly the size of the
    1:24:42 would-be event horizon. There’s no single point of infinite density and no
    1:24:44 true horizon to cross.
    1:24:47 In some sense, it says there’s no interior to the black hole, nothing ever crosses. So
    1:24:51 I gave you this very nice story that there’s no drama. Sometimes that’s how it’s described
    1:24:54 at the event horizon and you fall through and there’s nothing there.
    1:25:00 This other idea says, “Well, hold on a second. If it’s really strings, as I get close to this
    1:25:06 magnifying quality and slowing time down near the event horizon, it is as though I put a magnifying
    1:25:11 glass on things and now the strings aren’t so microscopic, they kind of shmure around and then
    1:25:16 they get caught like a tangle around the event horizon and they just actually never fall through.
    1:25:20 I don’t think that either, but it was interesting.”
    1:25:25 So it’s just adding a very large number of extra complex-
    1:25:26 Degrees of freedom.
    1:25:26 Yeah.
    1:25:29 There are no teeny tiny marbles to fall through.
    1:25:32 But it’s similar to what we already have with quantum mechanics. It’s just
    1:25:33 giving a deeper more complicated-
    1:25:37 But it’s really saying the interior is just not there ever. Nothing falls in.
    1:25:40 So the information gets out because it never went in in the first place.
    1:25:41 Oh, interesting. So there is a strong statement there.
    1:25:43 There’s a strong statement there, yeah.
    1:25:48 Okay. “Soft hair challenges the classical no-hair theorem by suggesting that black
    1:25:53 holes do possess subtle quantum, quote, “hair. This isn’t classical hair-like charge,
    1:26:00 but very low-energy quantum excitations, soft gravitons or photons at the event horizon
    1:26:04 that can store information about what fell in.”
    1:26:11 Worth trying, but I also don’t think that that’s the case. So the no-hair theorems are
    1:26:18 formal proofs that the black hole is this featureless, perfect, fundamental particle that
    1:26:22 we talked about. That all you can ever tell about the black hole is its electrical charge,
    1:26:29 its mass, and its spin. And that it cannot possess other features. It has no hair, is one way of
    1:26:34 describing it. And that those are proven mathematical proofs in the context of general relativity.
    1:26:38 So the idea is, well, therefore, I can know nothing about what goes into the black hole,
    1:26:42 so the information is lost. But if they could have hair, I could say that’s my black hole,
    1:26:47 because it’d have features that I could distinguish, and it could encode the information
    1:26:52 that went in in this way. And the event horizon isn’t so serious. It isn’t such a stark demarcation
    1:26:56 between events inside and outside, where I can’t know what happened inside or outside.
    1:27:00 I don’t think that’s the resolution either, but it was worth a try.
    1:27:05 Okay, the pros and cons of that one. The pros, it works within the framework of quantum field
    1:27:09 theory in curved space-time, potentially requiring less radical modifications than
    1:27:15 fuzzballs or information loss. Recent work by Hawking, Perry, Strominger revitalized this idea.
    1:27:20 The cons is that the precise mechanism by which information is encoded and transferred to the
    1:27:24 radiation is still debated and technically challenging to work out fully. And indeed,
    1:27:30 it needs to store a vast amount of information. Okay, another one, this is a weird one, boy,
    1:27:39 is ER equals EPR. This is probably it, though. Oh, boy. So ER equals EPR is Einstein-Rosen Bridge
    1:27:46 equals Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen Bridge posits a deep connection between quantum entanglement and
    1:27:54 space-time geometry, specifically Einstein-Rosen Bridge, commonly known as wormholes. It suggests that
    1:27:59 entangled particles are connected by a non-traversible wormhole, so tiny wormholes
    1:28:01 connected. Okay.
    1:28:03 I can say that this is not
    1:28:09 a situation where we can follow the chalk. We can’t start at the beginning and calculate to the end.
    1:28:17 So it’s still a conjecture. I think it’s very profound, though. I kind of imagine
    1:28:23 Juan Maldicina, who’s part of this, with Lenny Suskin, they were kind of like, “Oh, it’s like ER equals EPR.”
    1:28:26 They couldn’t even formulate it properly. It was like an intuition that they had kind of
    1:28:34 landed on and now are trying to formalize. But to take a step back, one way of thinking about ER equals
    1:28:40 EPR, you have to talk about holography first. And holography, both Juan Maldicina really formalized it,
    1:28:45 Lenny Suskin suggested it. The idea of a black hole hologram is that all of the information
    1:28:51 in the black hole, whatever it is, whatever entropy as a measure of information, whatever the entropy of
    1:28:55 the black hole is, which is telling you how much information is hidden in there, how much information
    1:29:02 you don’t have direct access to in some sense, is completely encoded in the area of the black
    1:29:09 hole. Meaning as the area grows, the entropy grows. It does not grow as the volume. This actually turns
    1:29:17 out to be really, really important. If I tried to pack a lot of information into a volume, more information
    1:29:22 than I could pack, let’s say, on the surface of a black hole, I would simply make a black hole. And I would
    1:29:28 find out, oh, I can’t have more information than I can fit on the surface. So Lenny coined this a hologram.
    1:29:33 People who take it very seriously say, well, again, maybe the interior of the black hole just doesn’t
    1:29:38 exist. It’s a holographic projection of this two-dimensional surface. In fact, maybe I should
    1:29:44 take it all the way and say, so are we. The whole universe is a holographic projection of a lower
    1:29:50 dimensional surface, right? And so people have struggled, nobody’s really landed it, to find a
    1:29:55 universe version of it. Oh, maybe there’s a boundary to the universe where all the information is encoded.
    1:30:00 And this entire three-dimensional reality is so compelling and so convincing is actually
    1:30:06 just a holographic projection. Juan Maldicina did something absolutely brilliant. It’s the
    1:30:12 most highly cited paper in the history of physics. It was published in the late 90s. It has a very
    1:30:19 opaque title that would not lead you to believe it’s as revelatory as it is. But he was able to show that
    1:30:25 a universe like in a box with gravity in it, it’s not the same universe we observe, doesn’t matter,
    1:30:29 it’s just a hypothetical called an anti-desider space. It’s a universe in a box, it has gravity,
    1:30:38 it has black holes, it has everything gravity can do in it. On its boundary is a theory with no gravity,
    1:30:44 a universe that can be described with no gravity at all, so no black holes, and no information loss
    1:30:51 of the boundary. And they’re equivalent. That the interior universe in a box is a holographic
    1:30:59 projection of this quantum mechanics on the boundary. Pure quantum mechanics, purely unitary,
    1:31:05 no loss of information. None of this stuff could possibly be true. There can’t be loss of information
    1:31:14 if this dictionary really works, if the interior is a hologram, a projection of the boundary. I know that’s
    1:31:15 a lot. Yeah.
    1:31:22 So there’s some mathematics there, there’s physics, and then there’s trying to conceive of what that
    1:31:29 actually means practically for us. Well, what it would mean for us is that information can’t be lost,
    1:31:35 even if we don’t know how to show it in the description in which there are black holes. It
    1:31:42 means it can’t possibly be lost because it’s equivalent to this description with no gravity in
    1:31:50 it at all, no event horizons, no black holes, just quantum mechanics. So it really strongly suggested that
    1:31:56 quantum mechanics was going to win in this battle, but it didn’t show exactly how it was going to win.
    1:32:04 So then comes ER equals EPR. A visual way to imagine what this means. So ER has to do with little wormholes.
    1:32:11 EPR, Einstein, Podolsky, Rosen, has to do with quantum entanglement. The idea was, well,
    1:32:20 maybe the stuff that’s interior to the black hole is quantum entangled, like EPR, quantum entangled,
    1:32:25 with the Hawking radiation outside the black hole that’s escaping. And that quantum entanglement
    1:32:32 entanglement is what allows you to extract the information because it’s not actually physically
    1:32:38 moving from the interior to the exterior. It’s just subtle quantum entanglement. And in fact,
    1:32:46 I can kind of think of the entire black hole. If I look at it, it looks like a solid shadow cast on the
    1:32:52 sky, some region of space time. If I look at it very closely, I will see, oh no, it’s actually sewn from
    1:33:00 these quantum wormholes, like embroidered. And so when I get up close, it’s almost as though the event
    1:33:08 horizon isn’t the fundamental feature on the space time. The fundamental feature is the quantum entanglement
    1:33:15 embroidering, the event horizon. The embroidering is just tiny wormholes. So the quantum entanglement
    1:33:21 is when two particles are connected at arbitrary distances.
    1:33:23 And they’re connected by a wormhole.
    1:33:26 And in this case, they would be connected by a wormhole.
    1:33:31 Mm-hmm. So the reason why that’s helpful, it helps you connect the interior to the exterior
    1:33:35 without trying to pass through the event horizon.
    1:33:42 Now, the cons of this theory is highly conceptual and abstract. The exact mechanism for information
    1:33:49 retrieval via these non-traversable wormholes is not fully understood. Primarily explored in
    1:33:57 theoretical toy models. Whoa, Gemini going hard. Theoretical toy models like the
    1:34:02 anti-desider space, space-time, rather than realistic black holes.
    1:34:06 True. We do what we can do in baby steps.
    1:34:15 So another idea to resolve the information paradox is firewalls proposed by Almeri, Marov,
    1:34:22 Polchinski, and Sully. Amps. This is a more drastic scenario arising from analyzing the entanglement
    1:34:27 requirements of Hawking radiation to preserve unitarity and avoid information
    1:34:33 loss. They argued that the entanglement structure requires the event horizon not to be smooth,
    1:34:39 not to be the smooth and remarkable place predicted by general relativity, the equivalence principle.
    1:34:47 Instead, it must be a highly energetic region, a “firewall” that incinerates anything attempting
    1:34:52 to cross it. Okay, so yeah, that’s a nice solution. Just destroy everything that crosses this.
    1:34:56 Do you find this at all a convincing resolution to the information?
    1:35:02 I would say the firewall papers were fascinating and were very provocative and very important in
    1:35:06 making progress. I don’t even think the authors of those papers thought firewalls were real.
    1:35:13 I think they were saying, “Look, we’ve been brushing too much under the rug, and if you look at the
    1:35:21 evaporation process, it’s even worse than what you thought previously. It’s so bad that I can’t get
    1:35:25 away with some of these prior solutions that I thought I could get away with.” There was a kind of
    1:35:30 duality idea or a complementarity idea that, “Oh, well, maybe one person thinks they fell in and one
    1:35:36 person thinks they never fell in, and that’s okay. You know, no big deal.” They sort of exposed flaws in
    1:35:42 these kind of approaches, and it actually reinvigorated the campaign to find a solution.
    1:35:48 So it stopped it from stalling. I don’t think anyone really believes that the Event Horizon,
    1:35:55 at the Event Horizon you’ll find a firewall. But it did lead to things like the entangled wormholes
    1:36:04 embroidering a black hole, which was born out of an attempt to address the concerns that amps raised.
    1:36:09 So it did lead to progress. So for you, the resolution would-
    1:36:16 I’m going back to the vacuum. The empty space, the beautiful Event Horizon, I’ll give up
    1:36:25 I’ll give up locality, meaning that I will allow things to be connected non-locally by a wormhole.
    1:36:32 So that is the weirdest thing you’re willing to allow for, which is arbitrary distance connection
    1:36:36 of particles through a wormhole. But quantum mechanics must be preserved.
    1:36:42 I’ll entertain pretty weird things. But I think that’s the one that sounds promising.
    1:36:47 The implications are so dramatic, because this is why you start to hear things like, “Wait a minute,
    1:36:54 if the Event Horizon only exists when it’s sewn out of these quantum threads, does that mean that gravity
    1:37:00 is fundamentally quantum mechanics?” Not that gravity and quantum mechanics get along, and I have a quantum
    1:37:04 gravity theory, and I now know how to quantize gravity, actually something much more dramatic.
    1:37:11 Gravity is just kind of emerging from this quantum description, that gravity isn’t fundamental.
    1:37:17 And what is the only thing that we have when we go rock bottom, when we go deeper and deeper,
    1:37:24 smaller and smaller, is quantum mechanics. So all of this, like space-time looks nice and smooth and
    1:37:29 continuous. But if I look at the quantum realm, I’ll see everything sewn together out of quantum threads.
    1:37:37 And that space-time is not a smooth continuum all the way down. Now, people already thought that,
    1:37:42 but they thought it kind of came in chunks of space-time. Instead, maybe it’s just quantum mechanics all
    1:37:49 the way down. Quantum threads. So these entangled particles connected by wormholes.
    1:37:50 Yeah.
    1:37:55 So that’s how you would, how would you even visualize a black hole in that way? So it’s all,
    1:38:03 I mean, it’s all sort of, from our perspective in terms of detecting things, the light goes and
    1:38:07 going in. It’s all still the same. But when you zoom in a lot.
    1:38:12 When you zoom in a lot to the quantum mechanical scale at which you’re seeing the Hawking radiation,
    1:38:19 you would be noticing that there’s some entanglement between the radiation that I could not explain
    1:38:26 before and the interior of the black hole. So it’s now no longer a perfectly thermal spectrum with
    1:38:33 no features that only depends on the mass. It actually has a way to have an imprint of the
    1:38:41 information interior to the black hole in the particles that escape. And so now in principle,
    1:38:45 I could sit there for a very long time. It might take longer than the age of the universe and collect
    1:38:51 all the Hawking radiation and see that it actually had details in it that are going to explain to me
    1:38:55 what was interior to the black hole. So the information is no longer lost.
    1:39:00 So yeah. So information is not being destroyed. So in theory, you should be able to get information.
    1:39:05 Now I can’t do that any more than I can recover the words on that piece of paper once it’s been
    1:39:10 burnt. But that’s a practical limitation, not a fundamental one. It’s just too hard. But when I
    1:39:15 burn a piece of paper, technically the information is all there somewhere. It’s in the smoke, it’s in the
    1:39:22 currents, it’s in the molecules, it’s in the ink molecules. But in principle, if I had took the age of
    1:39:26 the universe, I could probably reconstruct, I should be able to, in principle, reconstruct the piece of
    1:39:27 paper and all the words on it.
    1:39:35 Do you think a theory of everything that unifies general relativity quantum mechanics is possible?
    1:39:37 Yeah. So we’re like skirting around it.
    1:39:40 Yeah, we’re skirting around it. I think that this is the way to find that out.
    1:39:45 It’s going to be on the terrain of black holes that we figure out if that’s possible.
    1:39:52 I think that this is suggesting that there might not be a theory of quantum gravity,
    1:39:57 that gravity will emerge at a macroscopic level out of quantum phenomena. Now,
    1:40:01 we don’t know how to do that yet. But these are all hints.
    1:40:07 Emerge. So a lot of the mathematics of anything that emerges from complex systems is very difficult
    1:40:10 to… The transition is very difficult, right?
    1:40:16 So if that’s the case, there might not be a simple, clean equation that connects everything.
    1:40:20 There are examples of emergent phenomena which are very simple and clean. Like,
    1:40:25 I can just take electromagnetic scattering, which is the law of physics, where particles scatter
    1:40:30 just by electromagnetically, and I have a lot of them, and I have a lot of them in this room,
    1:40:35 and they come to some average. Well, I call that temperature, right? And that one number,
    1:40:41 the fact that there’s one number describing all of these gazillions of particles is an emergent
    1:40:48 quantity. There’s no particle that carries around this fundamental property called temperature,
    1:40:52 right? It emerges from the collective behavior of tons and tons of particles. In some sense,
    1:40:56 temperature is not a fundamental quantity. It’s not a fundamental law of nature,
    1:41:05 right? It’s just what happens from the collective behavior. And that’s what we’d be saying. We’d be
    1:41:13 saying, oh, this emerges from the collective behavior of lots and lots and lots of quantum interactions.
    1:41:21 So when do you think we would have some breakthroughs on the path towards theory of
    1:41:26 everything, showing that it’s impossible or impossible, all that kind of stuff? If you look at the 21st century,
    1:41:32 say you move 100 years into the future and looking back, when do you think the breakthroughs will come?
    1:41:49 I’ll give you some hard problems. I guess my question is, how hard is this problem? What does your gut say? Because finding the origin of life, figuring out consciousness, solving some of the major diseases, then there’s the theory of everything, understanding this, resolving the information paradox.
    1:42:05 So these puzzles that are before us as a human civilization, physics, this feels like really one of the big ones. Of course, there could be other breakthroughs in physics that don’t solve this.
    1:42:20 Yeah. We could discover dark matter, dark energy. We could discover extra spatial dimensions. We could discover that those three things are linked, that there’s like a dark sector to the universe that’s hiding in these extra dimensions. And that’s something that I love to work on. I think it’s really fascinating.
    1:42:27 All of those would also be clues about this question, but they wouldn’t solve this problem.
    1:42:45 I think it’s impossible to predict. There has been real progress. And the progress, as we’ve said, comes from the childlike curiosity of saying, well, I don’t actually understand this. I’m going to keep leaning on it because I don’t understand it. And then suddenly you realize nobody really understood it.
    1:42:58 So I don’t know. Do I think it’s a harder problem than the problem of the origin of life? I think it’s technically a harder problem. But I don’t know. Maybe the breakthrough will come.
    1:43:08 So when you mentioned discovering extra dimensions, what do you mean, what could that possibly mean?
    1:43:21 Well, we know that there are three spatial dimensions. We like to talk about time as a dimension. We can argue about whether that’s the right thing to do. But we don’t know why there are only three.
    1:43:34 It very well could be that there are extra spatial dimensions, that there’s like a little origami of these tightly rolled up dimensions. Not all of them, not all the models require that they’re small, but most do.
    1:43:50 String theory requires extra dimensions to make sense. But even if you feel very hostile towards string theory, there are lots of reasons to consider the viability of extra dimensions.
    1:43:59 And we think that they can trap little quantum energies in such a way that might align with the dark energy.
    1:44:04 I mean, the numerology is not perfect. It’s a little bit subtle. It’s hard to stabilize them.
    1:44:12 It’s possible that there are these kind of quantum excitations that look a lot like dark matter.
    1:44:19 It’s kind of an interesting idea that in the Big Bang, the universe was born with lots of these dimensions.
    1:44:22 They were all kind of wrapped up in the early universe.
    1:44:26 And what we’re really trying to understand is why did three get so big?
    1:44:31 And why did the others stay so small?
    1:44:36 Is it possible to have some kind of natural selection of dimensions kind of situation?
    1:44:39 There is, actually. And people have worked on that.
    1:44:43 Is there a reason why it’s easier to unravel three?
    1:44:52 Some people think about strings and brains wrapping up in the extra dimensions, causing a kind of constriction, but preferentially loosening up in three.
    1:45:05 Sometimes we look at exactly models like that, which have to do with the origami being resistant to change in a certain way that only allows three to unravel and keeps the others really taut.
    1:45:14 But then there are other ideas that we’re actually living on a three-dimensional membrane that moves through these higher dimensions.
    1:45:18 And so the reason we don’t notice them isn’t because they’re small. Maybe they’re not small at all.
    1:45:21 But it’s because we’re stuck to this membrane.
    1:45:24 So we’re unaware of these extra directions.
    1:45:32 Is it possible that there’s other intelligent alien civilizations out there that are operating on a different membrane?
    1:45:37 This is a bit of an out there question, but I ask it more kind of seriously.
    1:45:46 Is it possible, do you think, from a physics perspective, to exist on a slice of what the universe is capable of?
    1:45:57 I think it is certainly mathematically possible on paper to imagine a higher dimensional universe with more than one membrane.
    1:46:03 And if things are mathematically possible, I often wonder if nature will try it out.
    1:46:04 Yeah.
    1:46:10 Just how people get into the strange territory of talking about a multiverse.
    1:46:33 Because if you start to say, one of the aspirations was, in the same way that we identified the law of electroweak theory of matter, that it was a single description and exactly landed on the description that matched observations, people were hoping the same thing would happen for a kind of theory that also incorporated gravity.
    1:46:40 There would be this one beautiful law, but instead they got a proliferation, all of which did okay, or did equally badly.
    1:46:50 And they suddenly had trouble finding, not only finding a single one, but sort of, that would just beg a new question, which is, well, why that one?
    1:46:56 And if nature can do something, won’t she do anything she can try?
    1:47:05 And so maybe we really are just one example in an infinite sea of possible universes with slightly different laws of physics.
    1:47:18 So if I can do some of these things on paper, like imagine a higher dimensional space in which I’m confined to a brain and there’s another brain or maybe a whole array of them, maybe nature’s tried that out somewhere.
    1:47:20 Maybe that’s been tried out here.
    1:47:26 And then, yes, is it possible that there’s life and civilizations on those other brains?
    1:47:29 Yeah, but we can’t communicate with them.
    1:47:31 They’d be like in a shadow space.
    1:47:33 Can you seriously say we can’t communicate with them?
    1:47:35 Well, no, that’s fair.
    1:47:40 I’m limited in my communication because I’m glued to the brain, but some things can move.
    1:47:42 We call the bulk, through the bulk.
    1:47:45 Gravity, for instance, a gravitational wave.
    1:47:52 So I could design a gravitational communicator, communication system, and I could send gravitational waves through the bulk.
    1:48:05 And how SETI’s doing with light into space, I could send signals into the bulk, telling them where we are and what we do and singing songs.
    1:48:07 Of course, sending gravitational waves is very expensive.
    1:48:08 We don’t know how to move.
    1:48:10 Very expensive, very hard to localize.
    1:48:13 They tend to be long wavelength and very hard to do.
    1:48:15 A lot of energy moving around.
    1:48:15 A lot of energy.
    1:48:20 So is it possible that the membranes are, quote-unquote, hairy in other ways?
    1:48:22 Like some kind of weird quantum thing?
    1:48:24 It is possible that there’s other things that live in the bulk.
    1:48:30 I mean, last night I was calculating away, looking at something that lives in the bulk.
    1:48:31 Okay, this is fascinating.
    1:48:35 So, I mean, okay, can we take a little bit more seriously about the whole one?
    1:48:49 When I look out there at the stars, I, from a basic intuition, cannot possibly imagine there’s not just alien civilizations everywhere.
    1:48:52 Life is so damn good.
    1:48:55 Like you said, nature tries stuff out.
    1:48:55 Yeah.
    1:48:57 Nature’s an experimenter.
    1:49:08 And I just can’t, just basic sort of observation, life, you said somewhere that you like extremophiles.
    1:49:11 Life just figures shit out.
    1:49:13 It just finds a way to survive.
    1:49:19 Now, there could be something magical about the origin of life, the first spark, but like I can’t even see that.
    1:49:20 It’s just over and over and over.
    1:49:34 I bet, actually, once the story is fully told and figured out, life originated on earth almost right away and did that so like billions of times in multiple places, just over and over and over and over.
    1:49:48 That seems to be the thing that just whatever is the life force behind this whole thing seems to create life, seems to be a creator of different sorts.
    1:49:49 Mm, yeah.
    1:49:54 The very, from the very original primordial soup of things, it just creates stuff.
    1:49:57 So I just can’t imagine, but we don’t see the aliens, so.
    1:49:58 Right, yeah.
    1:50:02 We don’t even have to go to something as crazy as extra dimensions and brain worlds and all of that.
    1:50:14 What’s happening right now in the past 30 years in astronomy, looking at real objects, is that the number of planets, exoplanets outside our solar system has absolutely proliferated.
    1:50:19 There are probably more planets in the Milky Way galaxy than there are stars.
    1:50:22 And now we have a real quandary.
    1:50:23 Not, I don’t think it’s a quandary.
    1:50:24 I think it’s really exciting.
    1:50:26 It becomes impossible.
    1:50:28 What you just said, I totally agree with.
    1:50:38 It becomes impossible to imagine that life was not sparked somewhere else in our Milky Way galaxy and maybe even in our local neighborhood of the Milky Way galaxy.
    1:50:41 Maybe within a few hundred light years of our solar system.
    1:50:50 So my gut says, like, some crazy amount of solar systems have life.
    1:50:58 Bacterial life somewhere at some point in their history had some bacterial type of life.
    1:51:01 Something like bacterial, maybe it’s totally different kinds of life.
    1:51:09 So then I’m just facing with the question, it’s like, why have we not clearly seen alien civilizations?
    1:51:17 And there, the answer, I don’t find any great filter answer convincing.
    1:51:22 There’s just no way I can imagine an advanced alien civilization not avoiding its own destruction.
    1:51:24 I can see a lot of them getting into trouble.
    1:51:28 I can see how we humans are really like 50-50 here.
    1:51:31 Well, isn’t that kind of appalling?
    1:51:32 I mean, just take that statement.
    1:51:37 We’ve only been around for like, I mean, a couple hundred thousand years tops, you know.
    1:51:40 That is not very long.
    1:51:41 And we’re at a 50-50.
    1:51:43 I mean, that’s unbelievable.
    1:51:50 I mean, it’s indisputable that we have created the means, at least potentially, for our own destruction.
    1:51:52 Will we learn from our mistakes?
    1:51:56 Will we avert course and save ourselves?
    1:51:57 One hopes so, right?
    1:52:03 But even the concept that it’s conceivable, whales have not invented a way to kill themselves,
    1:52:09 to wipe out all whales and Earth and life on Earth.
    1:52:10 That’s one way to see it.
    1:52:14 But I actually see it as a feature, not a bug, when you look at the entirety of the universe.
    1:52:26 Because it does seem that the mechanism of evolution constantly creates, you want to operate on the verge of destruction, it seems like.
    1:52:34 I mean, the predator and prey dynamic is really effective at creating, at accelerating evolution and development.
    1:52:49 It seems like us being able to destroy ourselves is a really powerful way to give us a chance to really get our shit together and to flourish, to develop, to innovate, to go out amongst the stars or, 50-50, destroy ourselves.
    1:52:52 But, like, which I think, me as a human, is a horrible thing.
    1:52:56 But if there’s a lot of other alien civilizations, that’s a pretty cool thing.
    1:52:58 You want to give everybody nuclear weapons.
    1:53:00 Half of them will figure it out.
    1:53:01 Half of them won’t.
    1:53:03 You mean everyone, all these civilizations.
    1:53:04 All these civilizations.
    1:53:11 And then the ones that figure it out will figure out some incredible technologies about how to expand, how to develop, and all that kind of stuff.
    1:53:12 Right.
    1:53:23 You could use a kind of evolutionary Darwinian natural selection on that, where survival isn’t just in a harsh, naturally-induced climate change, but it’s because of a nuclear holocaust.
    1:53:31 And then something will be created that is now impervious to that, that now knows how to survive.
    1:53:32 Yep, exactly.
    1:53:33 So why haven’t we seen them?
    1:53:34 Right.
    1:53:37 Well, because that’s a pretty big bar.
    1:53:43 So if you look at the, just to say, for comparison, dinosaurs, you know, 250 million years.
    1:53:46 I mean, maybe not very bright.
    1:53:50 Didn’t invite fire.
    1:53:51 Didn’t write sonnets.
    1:53:52 Yeah.
    1:53:56 They didn’t contemplate the origin of the universe, but they, they lived.
    1:54:03 And in a benign situation without confronting their own demise at their own hands.
    1:54:04 Paws.
    1:54:05 Hooves.
    1:54:08 So it’s just a sheer numbers game.
    1:54:08 That’s a long time.
    1:54:10 250 million years.
    1:54:16 I do think, though, that life can flourish without wanting to manipulate its environment.
    1:54:29 And that we do see many examples of species on Earth that are very long-lived, very, very long-lived, and have very different states of consciousness.
    1:54:33 They have, the jellyfish does not even have a localized brain.
    1:54:36 I don’t think they have a heart or blood.
    1:54:37 I mean, they’re really different from us.
    1:54:38 Okay.
    1:54:41 And that’s what I think we have to start thinking about when we think about aliens.
    1:54:45 Those species have lived for a very, very long time.
    1:54:47 They even show some evidence of immortality.
    1:54:56 You can wound one badly, and there are certain jellyfish that will go back into a kind of pre-state and start over.
    1:55:03 So I think we’re very attached to imagining creatures like us that manipulate technology.
    1:55:11 And I think we have to be way more imaginative if we’re going to really take seriously life in the universe.
    1:55:15 Yeah, they might not prioritize conquest and expansion.
    1:55:17 They might not be violent.
    1:55:18 Mm-hmm.
    1:55:19 They might not be violent.
    1:55:21 Like us humans.
    1:55:23 They might be solitary.
    1:55:24 They might not be social.
    1:55:25 They might not move in groups.
    1:55:27 They might not want to leave records.
    1:55:34 They might, again, not have a localized brain or have a completely different kind of nervous system.
    1:55:39 I think all we can say about life is it has something to do with moving electrons around.
    1:55:46 And, like, neurologically, we move electrons through our nervous system.
    1:55:48 Our brain has electrical configurations.
    1:55:58 We metabolize food, and that has to do with getting energy, electrical energy in some sense, out of what we’re eating.
    1:56:00 We have organisms on the Earth that can eat rocks.
    1:56:02 It’s quite amazing.
    1:56:02 Minerals.
    1:56:04 I mean, talk about extremophiles.
    1:56:08 They can metabolize things that were impossible to metabolize.
    1:56:18 And so, again, I think we have to kind of open our minds to how strange that could be and how different from us.
    1:56:26 And we are the only example, even here on Earth, that does manipulate its environment in that extreme way.
    1:56:35 I mean, can you think of life as, because you said electrons, is there some degree of information processing required?
    1:56:41 So, like, it does something interesting, in quotes, with information.
    1:56:55 I think there are arguments like that, how entropy is changing from the beginning of the universe to today, how life lowers entropy by organizing things, but it costs more as a whole system.
    1:56:58 So, the whole entropy of the whole system goes up.
    1:57:07 But, of course, I organized things today and reduced the entropy of certain things in order to get up and get here.
    1:57:14 And even having this conversation, organizing thoughts out of the cloud of information.
    1:57:19 But it comes at the cost of the entire system increasing entropy.
    1:57:22 So, I do think there’s probably a very interesting way to talk about life in this way.
    1:57:24 I’m sure somebody has.
    1:57:27 Yeah, it creates local pockets of low entropy.
    1:57:36 And then, the kind of mechanism, the kind of object, the kind of life form that could do that probably could take arbitrary forms.
    1:57:40 And you could think, now, if you could reduce it all to information, now you could start to think about physics.
    1:57:45 And then, the realm of physics was the multiverse and all this kind of stuff.
    1:57:52 You could start to think about, okay, how do I detect those pockets of low entropy?
    1:57:53 Yeah.
    1:57:55 I mean, people have tried to make arguments like that.
    1:58:03 Like, can I look for entropic arguments that might suggest we’ve done this before?
    1:58:07 The Big Bang has happened before.
    1:58:13 So, is it possible that there’s some kind of physics explanation why we haven’t seen the aliens?
    1:58:14 Like we said, membranes.
    1:58:18 I don’t think membranes is going to explain why we don’t see them in the Milky Way.
    1:58:20 I think that is just a problem we’re stuck with.
    1:58:25 Whether or not there are extra dimensions or whether or not there’s life in another membrane.
    1:58:31 I think we know that even just in our galaxy, which is a very small part of the universe,
    1:58:35 300 billion stars, something like that.
    1:58:38 A whole kind of variety of possibilities to be explored.
    1:58:41 By nature, in the same way that we’re describing.
    1:58:43 And I think you’re absolutely right.
    1:58:48 When life was kicked off, first barked here on Earth, it was voracious.
    1:58:53 Now, it took a really long time, though, to get to multicellularity.
    1:58:54 I think that’s interesting.
    1:58:55 That’s weird.
    1:58:55 It’s weird.
    1:58:59 It took a really, really long time to become multicellular.
    1:59:04 But it did not take long just to start.
    1:59:05 Yeah.
    1:59:11 What do you think is the hardest thing on the chain of leaps that got to humans?
    1:59:18 I would say multicellularity, which is strictly an energy problem, I think.
    1:59:23 Again, it’s just like, can electrons flow the right way?
    1:59:32 And is it energetically favorable for multicellularity to exist?
    1:59:34 Because if it’s energetically expensive, it’s not going to succeed.
    1:59:38 And if it’s energetically favorable, it’s going to take off.
    1:59:39 It’s really just…
    1:59:50 And that’s why I also think that going from inanimate to animate is probably gray.
    1:59:53 Like, the transition is gray.
    1:59:57 At what point we call something fully alive.
    2:00:03 Famously, it’s hard to make a nice list of bullet points that need to be met in order
    2:00:04 to declare something alive.
    2:00:06 Is a virus alive?
    2:00:07 I mean, I don’t know.
    2:00:09 Is a prion alive?
    2:00:09 Those are…
    2:00:15 They seem to do some things, but they kind of rely on stealing other DNA and replicating
    2:00:15 and…
    2:00:16 I don’t know.
    2:00:17 I guess they’re not alive.
    2:00:21 But I mean, the point is that it really, at the end of the day, I really think is just…
    2:00:22 You asked if it’s just physics.
    2:00:25 I mean, I think it’s just these rules of energetics.
    2:00:32 And the gray area between the non-living and the living is way simpler just on Earth.
    2:00:35 And you said it’s already complicated on Earth, but it’s probably even more complicated elsewhere
    2:00:37 where the chemistry could be anything.
    2:00:40 Carbon is really cool and really useful.
    2:00:40 Yes, nice.
    2:00:41 Because it finds a lot…
    2:00:42 It’s nice.
    2:00:45 It finds a lot of ways to combine with other things.
    2:00:46 And that’s complexity.
    2:00:50 And complexity is the kind of thing you need for life.
    2:00:53 You can’t have a very simple linear chain and expect to get life.
    2:00:54 But I don’t know.
    2:00:55 Maybe sulfur would do okay.
    2:01:00 Okay, as we get progressively towards crazier and crazier ideas.
    2:01:06 So we talked about these microscopic wormholes, which, you know, my mind is still blown away by that.
    2:01:14 But if we talk about a little bit more seriously about wormholes in general, also called the Einstein-Rosen bridges,
    2:01:35 To what degree do you think they’re actually possible as a thing to study, creeping towards the possibility, maybe centuries from now, of engineering ways of using them, of creating wormholes and using them for transportation of human-like organisms?
    2:01:37 I think wormholes are a perfectly valid construction to consider.
    2:01:39 I think wormholes are a perfectly valid construction to consider.
    2:01:43 They’re just a curve in space-time.
    2:01:56 Topologically, which has to do with the connectedness of the space, is a little tricky because we know that Einstein’s description is completely in terms of local curves and distortions, expansion, contraction.
    2:02:00 But it doesn’t say anything about the global connectedness of the space.
    2:02:05 Because he knew that it could be globally connected on the largest scales.
    2:02:26 This kind of origami that we’re talking about, that you could travel in a straight line through the universe, leave our galaxy behind, watch the Virgo cluster drift behind us, and travel in as straight line as possible, and find ourselves coming back again to the Virgo cluster and eventually the Milky Way and eventually the Earth, that we could find ourselves on a connected, compact space-time.
    2:02:35 And so, topologically, there’s something we know for sure, something beyond Einstein’s theory that has to explain that to us.
    2:02:38 Now, wormholes are a little funky because they’re topological.
    2:02:45 You know, they create these handles and holes in these sneaky, by topological, I mean these connected spaces.
    2:02:48 Yeah, it’s like Swiss cheese or something.
    2:02:49 Like Swiss cheese, right.
    2:02:57 So, I could have, you know, I could have two, like, flat sheets that are connected by a wormhole, but then wrap around on the largest scale.
    2:02:59 You know, all this cool stuff.
    2:03:03 There’s nothing wrong with it, as far as I can see.
    2:03:07 There’s nothing abusive towards the laws about a wormhole.
    2:03:09 But we can reverse engineer.
    2:03:14 We were saying, oh, look, if I know how matter and energy are distributed, I can predict how space-time is curved.
    2:03:15 I can reverse engineer.
    2:03:19 I can say, I want to build a curved space-time like a wormhole.
    2:03:22 What matter and energy do I need to do that?
    2:03:23 It’s a simple process.
    2:03:28 And it’s the kind of thing Kip Thorne worked on, very imaginative, creative person.
    2:03:33 And the problem was that he said, oh, you know, here’s the bummer.
    2:03:39 The matter and energy you need doesn’t seem to be like anything we’ve ever seen before.
    2:03:41 It has to have, like, negative energy.
    2:03:43 That’s not great.
    2:03:51 There are some conjectures that we shouldn’t allow things that have that kind of a property, that have negative energies.
    2:03:57 Only things that have positive energies are going to be stable and long-lived.
    2:04:00 But we actually know of quantum examples of negative energy.
    2:04:01 It’s not that crazy.
    2:04:04 There’s something called the Casimir effect.
    2:04:07 You have two metal plates, and you put them really close together.
    2:04:10 You can see this kind of quantum fluctuation between the plates.
    2:04:11 It’s called a Casimir energy.
    2:04:13 And that can have a negative energy.
    2:04:19 It can actually cause the plates to attract or repel, depending on how they’re configured.
    2:04:28 And so you could kind of imagine doing something like that, like having wormholes propped up by these kinds of quantum energies.
    2:04:34 And people have thought of imaginative configurations to try to keep them propped up.
    2:04:38 Are we at the point of me saying, oh, this is an engineering problem?
    2:04:40 I’m not saying that quite yet.
    2:04:42 But it’s certainly plausible.
    2:04:47 Yeah, so you have to get a lot of this kind of weird matter.
    2:04:50 You need a lot of this weird matter to send a person through.
    2:04:51 Right.
    2:04:53 That’s going to be really challenging.
    2:04:56 So I’m not saying it’s simply an engineering problem.
    2:05:00 But it’s all within the realm of plausible physics, I think.
    2:05:02 I think that’s super interesting.
    2:05:05 And I think it’s obviously intricately and deeply connected to black holes.
    2:05:11 Is it fair to think of wormholes as just two black holes that are connected somehow?
    2:05:12 People have looked at that.
    2:05:15 They tend to be non-traversible wormholes.
    2:05:17 They’re not trying to prop them open.
    2:05:26 But yeah, I mean, some of this ER equals EPR, quantum entanglement, they’re trying to connect black holes.
    2:05:30 You know, it’s really cool.
    2:05:33 It’s not quite, again, it’s not quite following the chalk.
    2:05:38 And by that, I mean, we can’t exactly start at a concrete place, calculate all the way to the end yet.
    2:05:44 So if I may read off some of the ideas that Kip Thorne has had about how to artificially construct wormholes.
    2:05:48 So the first method involves quantum mechanics and the concept of quantum foam.
    2:05:50 And this is the thing we’ve been talking about.
    2:05:57 Now, to create a wormhole, these tiny wormholes would need to be enlarged and stabilized to be useful for travel.
    2:06:01 But the exact method of doing this remains entirely theoretical.
    2:06:02 No shit, you think so?
    2:06:11 So these tiny wormholes that are basically for the quantum entanglement of the particles, somehow enlarged.
    2:06:17 Man, playing with the topology of the Swiss cheese would be so interesting.
    2:06:19 Even to get a hint.
    2:06:26 That would be, like, top three, if not one of the, maybe even number one question for me to ask.
    2:06:27 If I got a chance to ask.
    2:06:29 An omniscient being.
    2:06:32 Omniscient being of, like, a question they can get answered to.
    2:06:34 Maybe with some visualization.
    2:06:38 Like, the shape, the topology of the universe.
    2:06:40 Yeah.
    2:06:42 But, like, I need some details.
    2:06:43 Right.
    2:06:46 Because I’m pushing and I’ll get an answer that I can’t possibly comprehend.
    2:06:47 Right.
    2:06:49 It’s a hyperbolic manifold that’s identified across.
    2:06:50 Yeah, exactly.
    2:06:53 You need to be able to ask a follow-up question.
    2:06:54 Yeah, exactly.
    2:06:56 Yeah, that would be so interesting.
    2:06:58 Anyway, classical quantum strategy.
    2:07:01 The second approach combines classical physics with quantum effects.
    2:07:08 This method would require an advanced civilization to manipulate quantum gravity effects in ways we don’t yet understand.
    2:07:09 There’s a lot of.
    2:07:10 In ways we don’t understand.
    2:07:11 Yeah, there’s a lot of.
    2:07:13 And then there’s exotic matter requirements.
    2:07:14 There’s a lot of.
    2:07:15 But I can tell you.
    2:07:15 Stabilization.
    2:07:22 I’m pretty sure all of them have in common the feature that they’re saying, here’s what I want my wormhole to look like first.
    2:07:25 So, it’s like saying I want to build a building first.
    2:07:32 So, they construct, there’s an architecture of the space-time that they’re after.
    2:07:38 And then they reverse the Einstein equations to say, what must matter in energy?
    2:07:43 What are the conditions that I impose on matter and energy to build this architecture?
    2:07:47 Which is unfortunately a very early step of figuring out things.
    2:07:47 Right.
    2:07:51 But it’s important because it’s how they realized, oh, wow, they have to have these negative energies.
    2:07:56 They have to violate certain energy conditions that we often assume are true.
    2:08:00 And then you either say, oh, well, then all bets are off.
    2:08:01 They’ll never exist.
    2:08:08 Or you look a little harder and you say, well, I can violate that energy condition without it being that big a deal.
    2:08:14 And again, quantum mechanics often does violate those energy conditions.
    2:08:29 So, do you think the studying of black holes and some of the topics we’ve been talking about will allow us to travel faster than the speed of light or travel close to the speed of light or do some kind of really innovative breakthroughs on the propulsion technology we use for traveling in space?
    2:08:29 Yeah.
    2:08:35 I mean, sometimes I assign in an advanced general relativity class the assignment of inventing a warp drive.
    2:08:37 And it’s kind of similar.
    2:08:56 So, the idea is here’s a place you want to get to and can you contract the space-time between you with something antithetical to dark energy, the opposite, and skip across and then push it back out again.
    2:09:00 That’s all – you can do that in the context of general relativity.
    2:09:06 Now, I can’t find the energy that has these properties, but I also can’t find dark energy.
    2:09:11 So, we’ve already been confronted with something that we look at the space-time.
    2:09:14 The space-time is expanding ever faster.
    2:09:17 We say, what could possibly do that?
    2:09:20 We don’t know what it is, but I can tell you about its pressure.
    2:09:22 I can tell you certain features about it.
    2:09:25 And I just call it dark energy, but I actually have no idea.
    2:09:30 It’s just – that name is just a proxy for what this – it should be called invisible because it’s not actually dark.
    2:09:31 It’s in this room.
    2:09:32 It’s not hard to see through.
    2:09:33 It’s not dark.
    2:09:34 It’s literally invisible.
    2:09:37 So, maybe that was a misnomer.
    2:09:40 But the point being, I still don’t fundamentally know what it is.
    2:09:42 That’s not so terrible.
    2:09:44 That’s the state of the world that we’re actually in.
    2:09:47 So, maybe warp drive is just kind of like a version of that.
    2:09:53 I don’t know what form of matter can do that yet, but at least I can identify the features that are needed.
    2:09:57 So, figuring out what dark energy is might land some clues.
    2:09:59 Yeah, actually, it might.
    2:10:08 It is positive energy and a negative pressure, which is kind of like a rubber band sort of quality.
    2:10:17 We think of pressure as pushing things outward, and dark energy has a very strange sort of quality that, as things move outward, you feel more energy as opposed to less energy.
    2:10:18 The energy doesn’t get lower.
    2:10:19 It gets more.
    2:10:25 So, it doesn’t have the right features for the wormhole, but those are some pretty surprising features.
    2:10:33 We, again, can conjecture, like, oh, hey, you know, the quantum energy of the vacuum kind of behaves that way.
    2:10:36 That would be a great resolution to the dark energy problem.
    2:10:39 It’s just the energy of empty space, and it’s the quantum energy of empty space.
    2:10:41 That’s an excellent answer.
    2:10:55 The problem is, is by all our methods and all the understanding we have, that energy is either really, really huge, huge, way bigger than what we see today, or it’s like zero.
    2:10:58 So, that’s a numbers problem.
    2:11:07 We can’t naturally fine-tune the energy of empty space to give us this really weird value so that we just happen to be seeing it today.
    2:11:11 But, again, we can think of a kind of dark energy that exists.
    2:11:22 So, the question is just why is it, it becomes why is it such a weird value, not how is this conceivable, because we can’t conceive of it.
    2:11:25 Yeah, but if it’s a weird value, that means there is a phenomenon we don’t understand.
    2:11:27 Yes, there’s absolutely a phenomenon.
    2:11:29 Nobody’s going to say they’re happy with that.
    2:11:39 We’re all going to say there’s something we don’t understand, which is why we look to the extra dimensions, because then you can say, oh, maybe it has to do with the size of the extra dimensions or the way that they’re wrapped up.
    2:11:47 And so, maybe it’s foisted on us because of the topology, the connectedness of the higher dimensional space.
    2:11:49 These are all things that we’re exploring.
    2:11:55 Nobody’s landed one that’s so compelling that your friends like it as much as you do.
    2:12:01 What do you think would lead to the breakthroughs on dark matter and dark energy?
    2:12:10 I think dark matter might be less peculiar than dark energy.
    2:12:12 My hope is that they’re all tied together.
    2:12:14 That would be very gratifying.
    2:12:20 These aren’t just separate problems coming from different sectors, but that they’re actually connected.
    2:12:32 That the reason the dark matter is where it is in terms of how much it’s contributing to the universe is connected with why the dark energy is showing up right now.
    2:12:33 I would love that.
    2:12:36 That would be a solution like no other, right?
    2:12:42 And like I said, if it revealed something about dark dimensions, you know, that would be a happy day.
    2:12:43 Correct me if I’m wrong.
    2:12:45 So, dark matter could be localized in space.
    2:12:46 Yeah.
    2:12:48 Dark matter is localized in space.
    2:12:48 So, it clumps.
    2:12:52 I mean, it doesn’t clump a lot, you know, but I mean, it’s around the galaxy.
    2:12:54 It’s in a halo around the galaxy.
    2:12:57 So, people get increasingly more confident that it doesn’t thing.
    2:12:59 Oh, it’s really compelling.
    2:12:59 Yeah.
    2:13:08 I mean, you see these images of galaxies that clusters that pass through each other.
    2:13:10 And you can see where the light is.
    2:13:11 The luminous matter is distributed.
    2:13:23 And then by looking at the gravitational lensing, which shows you where the actual mass is distributed, so that light bends around the most massive parts in a particular way.
    2:13:31 So, you can reconstruct where the mass is gravitationally quite separate from looking at the luminous matter, which is not dark.
    2:13:40 And they are separate because the stuff, as they pass through each other, the interacting stuff, the luminous stuff collides and gets stuck.
    2:13:43 And you can see it colliding and lighting up.
    2:13:50 The dark stuff, which by definition, it’s dark because it doesn’t interact, passes right through each other, right?
    2:13:52 And this is, I mean, it’s so compelling.
    2:13:55 And there’s lots of other observations.
    2:14:06 But that one is just, before you just look at it, you can see that the mass is distributed differently than the interacting luminous matter.
    2:14:09 So, dark energy is harder to get a hold of.
    2:14:10 Dark energy is much harder to get a hold of.
    2:14:16 But, you know, I mean, the Higgs field could have also explained dark energy.
    2:14:18 If you’ve heard of the God particle.
    2:14:26 I don’t know if you know the, originally Leon Letterman co-authored a book and he wanted to call it the goddamn particle because they couldn’t find it.
    2:14:30 And his publisher convinced him to call it the God particle.
    2:14:37 And he said, he said, he said they managed to offend two groups, those that believed in God and those that didn’t.
    2:14:40 That’s a good line, too.
    2:14:41 Oh, boy.
    2:14:41 He was very funny.
    2:14:42 He was very witty.
    2:14:45 So, you know, Higgs turned out to be…
    2:14:47 Higgs, great discovery.
    2:14:48 I mean, unbelievable.
    2:14:50 There it was.
    2:14:53 Build this massive collider in CERN and Switzerland.
    2:14:54 And there it is.
    2:14:55 Unbelievable.
    2:14:57 Kind of where you expect it to be.
    2:15:07 Now, the reason I say it could be dark energy is because the Higgs particle, like a particle of light, also has a field, like an electromagnetic field.
    2:15:15 So, light can have this field that’s distributed through all space, electric magnetic field, and you shake it around and it creates little particles.
    2:15:27 So, the Higgs field is actually more important than the Higgs particle, the complement to the Higgs particle, because that’s what you and I connect with to get mass in our atoms.
    2:15:33 So, the idea is that our atoms are interacting with this gooey field that’s everywhere.
    2:15:37 And that’s what’s giving us this experience of inertial mass.
    2:15:39 But we don’t actually enter…
    2:15:40 There’s not a lot of quanta lying around.
    2:15:43 There’s not a lot of Higgs particles lying around, because they decay.
    2:15:45 So, it’s the field that’s really important.
    2:15:48 And that field could act like a dark energy.
    2:15:54 It’s just not in the right place, meaning it’s not at the right…
    2:15:59 The energy’s too high to explain this tiny, tiny value today.
    2:16:01 And, again, we’re back to this mismatch.
    2:16:04 It’s not that we can’t conceive of forms of dark energy.
    2:16:08 It’s that we can’t make one where we’re finding it.
    2:16:12 So, I wonder if you can comment on something that I’ve heard recently.
    2:16:15 There’s some people who say…
    2:16:21 People outside of physics say that, you know, dark matter and dark energy is just something physicists made up.
    2:16:22 Yeah.
    2:16:30 To put a label on the fact that they don’t understand a very large fraction of the universe and how it operates.
    2:16:32 Is there some truth to that?
    2:16:33 What’s your response to that?
    2:16:45 There’s some truth to it, but it’s really missing a huge point, which is that if we did not understand the universe as incredibly precisely as we do, it’s stunning that there’s modern precision cosmology.
    2:16:47 It’s absolutely incredible.
    2:16:56 When COBE, which is an experiment that measured the light left over from the Big Bang in the 80s, first revealed its observations.
    2:16:59 I mean, there was applause, you know?
    2:17:01 People were cheering, right?
    2:17:03 It was unbelievable.
    2:17:07 We had predicted and measured the light left over from the Big Bang.
    2:17:16 And because of all the precision that’s happened since then, that’s how we’re able to confront that there’s things that we don’t know.
    2:17:27 And that’s how we’re able to confront, like, wow, this is really everything everybody has ever seen and ever will see, as far as we understand, makes up less than 5% of what’s out there.
    2:17:33 And so I would say, yes, we’re just giving proxy names to things we don’t understand.
    2:17:38 But to dismiss that as some kind of, oh, they just don’t know, it is actually quite the opposite.
    2:17:51 It is a stunning achievement to be able to stare that down and to have that so precise and so compelling that we’re able to know that there’s dark energy and dark matter.
    2:17:53 I don’t think those are disputed anymore.
    2:17:56 And they were up until, you know, recently.
    2:17:57 They were still disputed.
    2:18:04 I think we’re still at such early stages where we’re not really even at a good explanation, right?
    2:18:05 You’ve mentioned a few.
    2:18:12 Well, I can think of examples of dark matter that exist that we really know for sure are real versions of dark matter, like neutrinos.
    2:18:14 Right now, they’re radiating through us.
    2:18:17 That’s very well confirmed.
    2:18:19 And they’re technically dark.
    2:18:21 They don’t interact with light.
    2:18:22 And so we can’t see them.
    2:18:24 Right now, they’re raining through us.
    2:18:30 If we could see the dark matter in this room and we absolutely know is coming from the sun, it would be wild.
    2:18:33 It would be a rainstorm, you know.
    2:18:34 But they’re just invisible to us.
    2:18:37 Mostly, they pass through our bodies.
    2:18:38 Mostly, they pass through the Earth.
    2:18:46 Occasionally, they get caught in some fancy detector experiment that somebody built specifically to catch solar neutrinos.
    2:18:48 So dark matter is known to exist.
    2:18:52 It’s just, again, there’s not enough of it.
    2:18:58 It’s not the right mass to be the dark matter that makes up this missing component.
    2:19:05 I wanted to say that I’ve been recently fascinated by the flat Earth people because there’s been a split in the community.
    2:19:10 First of all, the community is a fascinating study of human psychology.
    2:19:18 But they did this experiment where I forgot who funded it.
    2:19:24 But they sent, like, physicists and flat Earthers to Antarctica.
    2:19:26 Really?
    2:19:29 And this split happened because half of them got converted into round Earthers.
    2:19:30 Wow.
    2:19:31 Well, good for them.
    2:19:35 But then the other half just went that it was all a sigh out.
    2:19:35 Really?
    2:19:37 That’s fascinating.
    2:19:37 Did somebody film that?
    2:19:38 That would be a great documentary.
    2:19:39 Yeah, it did.
    2:19:39 They did.
    2:19:40 They made a whole thing.
    2:19:42 This is just at the end of last year.
    2:19:55 I think that’s such a clean study of conspiracy theories because, like, there’s so many conspiracy theories have some inkling of truth in them.
    2:20:03 Like, there’s some elements about the way governments operate or human psychology that it’s too messy.
    2:20:06 Flat Earth to me is just clean.
    2:20:07 It’s like spaghetti monster or something.
    2:20:08 Right.
    2:20:16 It’s just a cleanly wrong thing, so it’s a nice way to discuss how a large number of people can believe a thing.
    2:20:19 Yeah, and why do they want to believe a thing?
    2:20:25 What’s very interesting is trying to use rational arguments.
    2:20:28 That makes it even more confounding to me.
    2:20:36 I would understand more somebody who just said, look, I have faith and I believe these things, and it’s not about reason, and it’s not about logic.
    2:20:37 Okay.
    2:20:40 I mean, I don’t relate to it, but okay.
    2:20:52 But to say, I’m going to use reason and logic and to prove to you this completely orthogonal conclusion, that I find really interesting.
    2:20:56 So there’s some kind of romance about reason and logic?
    2:21:00 Yeah, but also there’s questioning of institutions.
    2:21:02 That’s really interesting and important to understand.
    2:21:10 Well, I mean, I actually appreciate the skeptic’s stance.
    2:21:13 I don’t – scientists also have to be skeptics.
    2:21:18 We have to be childlike, naive, and somewhat, in some sense, really open to anything, right?
    2:21:20 Otherwise, you’re not going to be a flexible.
    2:21:21 You’re not going to be at the forefront.
    2:21:23 But also to be skeptical.
    2:21:27 So I have respect for it.
    2:21:41 I guess that’s exactly what I’m saying is more confusing because to invoke skepticism and then to want to use rational argument, what is the other component that’s going into this?
    2:21:43 Because as you said, this is something that’s easily verified.
    2:21:45 I mean, we have people in space.
    2:21:56 So you have to believe a lot more machinery that’s a lot more difficult to justify, explain as a wild conspiracy.
    2:22:00 So there’s something about the conspiracy that stirs a positive emotion.
    2:22:07 I think one of the most incredible things I have to talk to you about this, one of the most incredible things that humans have ever accomplished is LIGO.
    2:22:11 We have to talk about gravitational waves.
    2:22:19 And the very fact that we’re able to detect gravitational waves from the early universe is effing wild.
    2:22:20 It’s crazy.
    2:22:21 Yeah.
    2:22:24 Can you explain what gravitational waves are?
    2:22:30 And we should mention you wrote a book about the humans, about the whole journey of detecting gravitational waves.
    2:22:33 And LIGO, Black Hole Blues is the book.
    2:22:38 But can you talk about gravitational waves and how we’re able to actually do it?
    2:22:40 Let’s just start with the idea of gravitational waves.
    2:22:46 I have to move around a lot of mass to make anything interesting happening in gravity.
    2:22:48 I mean, if you think about it, gravity is incredibly weak.
    2:22:53 I mean, right now the whole Earth is pulling on me and I can still get out of this chair and walk around.
    2:22:54 Like, that’s insane.
    2:22:55 The whole Earth.
    2:22:58 You know, gravity is weak, right?
    2:23:04 So to get something going on in gravity, I need like big objects and things like black holes.
    2:23:11 So the idea is if black holes curve space and time around them in the way that we’ve been describing, things fall along the curves in space.
    2:23:16 If the black holes move around, the curves have to follow them, right?
    2:23:19 But they can’t travel faster than the speed of light either.
    2:23:25 So what happens is as black holes, let’s say, move around, maybe I’ve got two black holes in orbit around each other.
    2:23:26 That can happen.
    2:23:27 It takes a while.
    2:23:30 A wave is created in the actual shape of space.
    2:23:33 And that wave follows the black holes.
    2:23:34 Those black holes are undulating.
    2:23:36 Eventually, those two black holes will merge.
    2:23:43 And as we were talking about, it doesn’t take an infinite time, even though there’s time dilation, because they’re both so big.
    2:23:45 They’re really deforming space-time a lot.
    2:23:48 I don’t have a little tidy marble falling across an event horizon.
    2:23:49 I have two event horizons.
    2:23:55 And in the simulations, you can see it bobble, and they merge together, and they make one bigger black hole.
    2:23:58 And then it radiates in the gravitational waves.
    2:24:06 It radiates away all those imperfections, and it settles down to one quiescent, perfectly silent black hole that’s spinning.
    2:24:07 Beautiful stuff.
    2:24:10 And it emits E equals mc squared energy.
    2:24:16 So the mass of the final black hole will be less than the sum of the two starter black holes.
    2:24:20 And that energy is radiated away in this ringing of space-time.
    2:24:24 It’s really important to emphasize that it’s not light.
    2:24:31 None of this has to do literally with light that we can detect with normal things that detect light.
    2:24:33 X-rays form a light.
    2:24:34 Gamma rays are a form of light.
    2:24:35 Infrared, optical.
    2:24:39 This whole electromagnetic spectrum, none of it is emitted as light.
    2:24:40 It’s completely dark.
    2:24:43 It’s only emitted in the rippling of the shape of space.
    2:24:45 A lot of times, it’s likened closer to sound.
    2:24:47 Technically, we’ve kind of argued.
    2:24:49 I mean, I haven’t done an anatomical calculation.
    2:24:56 But if you’re near enough to two colliding black holes, they actually ring space-time in the human auditory range.
    2:24:59 The frequency is actually in the human auditory range.
    2:25:03 That the shape of space could squeeze and stretch your eardrum, even in vacuum.
    2:25:07 And you could hear, literally hear these waves ringing.
    2:25:28 So, the idea is that they’re closer to something that you would want to map as a sound than as something as a picture.
    2:25:29 Sorry.
    2:25:34 So, what do you think it would feel like to ride the gravitational wave?
    2:25:36 So, like, to be, to exist, to exist.
    2:25:38 Because you mentioned eardrums.
    2:25:40 I mean, it would literally bob around.
    2:25:41 Like, your orbit would change.
    2:25:42 Right?
    2:25:47 If you were orbiting these black holes, two black holes, you’d be on a kind of complicated orbit.
    2:25:47 Yeah.
    2:25:50 But your orbit would get tossed about.
    2:25:51 Well, how would the experience be?
    2:25:53 Because you’re inside space-time.
    2:25:54 Yes, I see.
    2:25:59 So, the black hole is experienced within space-time as a squeezing and stretching.
    2:26:03 So, you would feel it as a sort of squeezing and stretching.
    2:26:05 And you would also find your location change.
    2:26:09 Where you would fall would be redirected.
    2:26:12 So, it’s literally like a squeezing and stretching.
    2:26:12 Yeah.
    2:26:14 That’s the way to think about it.
    2:26:20 And it’s very detailed, the sort of nature of this.
    2:26:27 But for many years, people thought, well, these gravitational waves kind of have to exist for these intuitive reasons I’ve described.
    2:26:28 A space-time’s curved.
    2:26:29 I move the curve.
    2:26:33 The wave has to propagate through that curved space-time.
    2:26:35 But people didn’t know if they really carried energy.
    2:26:41 The arguments went on and back and forth and papers written in decades.
    2:26:49 But I like this sound more than an analogy because I liken the black holes as like mallets on the drum.
    2:26:51 The drum is space-time.
    2:26:56 As they move, they bang on the drum of space-time and it rings.
    2:27:01 Remarkably, those gravitational waves, things don’t interfere with them very much.
    2:27:05 So, they can travel for two billion years, light years, you know, in distance.
    2:27:06 Two billion years in time.
    2:27:11 And get to us, kind of as they were when they were emitted.
    2:27:12 Quieter.
    2:27:13 More diffuse.
    2:27:17 Maybe they’ve stretched out a little bit from the expansion of the universe.
    2:27:19 But they’re pretty preserved.
    2:27:25 And so, the idea of LIGO, this instrument, is to build a gigantic musical instrument.
    2:27:35 It’s kind of like building an electric guitar where the electric guitar is recording the shape of the string and it plays it back to you through an amplifier.
    2:27:38 LIGO is trying to record the shape of the ringing drum.
    2:27:41 And they literally listen to it in the control room.
    2:27:44 Just sort of hums and wobbles.
    2:27:48 And they’re like trying to play this recording drum back to you.
    2:27:49 As opposed to taking a snapshot.
    2:27:51 It’s like in time.
    2:27:53 Yeah, but to construct this guitar.
    2:27:54 Yes.
    2:27:55 It’s a gigantic instrument.
    2:27:59 It has to be very large and extremely precise.
    2:28:00 It’s unbelievable.
    2:28:01 I can’t believe they succeeded.
    2:28:03 Honestly, I can’t believe they succeeded.
    2:28:05 It was so insane.
    2:28:08 It was such a crazy thing to even attempt.
    2:28:10 It took them 50 years.
    2:28:15 Really, it’s people who started in their 30s and 40s who were in their 80s when it succeeded.
    2:28:17 I mean, imagine that tenacity.
    2:28:20 The unbelievable commitment.
    2:28:31 But the sensitivity that we’re talking about is we have this musical instrument, the size, four kilometers, spanning four kilometers in a kind of L shape with these tunnels.
    2:28:37 The largest holes in the Earth’s atmosphere because they pulled a vacuum in these tunnels to build this instrument.
    2:28:56 And they’re measuring, they’re trying to record the wobbling of space-time, right, as it passes, this sort of undulation, that amounts to less than one ten-thousandth the variation in a proton over the four kilometers.
    2:29:00 It’s an insane, insane achievement.
    2:29:02 I love great engineering.
    2:29:03 I don’t know how they did it.
    2:29:07 I followed them around just for fun.
    2:29:08 I’m very theoretical.
    2:29:09 I don’t build things.
    2:29:18 I’m always super impressed that people can translate something on the page, and it looks like wires, and I don’t know how.
    2:29:20 I’m always surprised at what it looks like.
    2:29:28 But I walked the tunnels with Ray Weiss, who won the Nobel Prize, along with Kip Thorne, and Barry Barish, one of the project managers.
    2:29:29 And I walked the tunnels with Ray.
    2:29:30 It was a delight.
    2:29:32 I mean, Ray’s one of the most delightful people.
    2:29:34 Kip is one of the most wonderful people I’ve ever known.
    2:29:45 And Ray said to me, you know, the reason why it was called Black Hole Blues is because about a month before they succeeded, he said to me,
    2:29:48 if we don’t detect black holes, this whole thing’s a failure.
    2:29:53 And we’ve led this country, you know, down this wrong path.
    2:30:01 And he really felt like this tremendous responsibility for this project to succeed, and it weighed on him, you know.
    2:30:09 It was just quite tremendous, what the integrity, right, the scientific integrity.
    2:30:15 And the first instruments he built, he was building outside of MIT on a tabletop.
    2:30:17 And his colleagues said, you’re not going to get tenure.
    2:30:20 You’re never going to succeed.
    2:30:23 And they just kept going.
    2:30:32 People like that, so huge teams, huge collaborations, are just, it’s how the world moves forward because.
    2:30:34 It’s an example.
    2:30:42 It’s, you know, there’s a building cynicism about bureaucracies when a large number of people, especially connected to government, can be productive.
    2:30:44 You know, bureaucracies slow everything down.
    2:30:52 So it’s nice to see an incredibly unlikely, exceptionally difficult engineering project like this succeed.
    2:30:52 Oh, yeah.
    2:31:01 So I understand why there’s this weight on the shoulders, and I’m grateful that there’s great leaders that push it forward like that.
    2:31:03 Yeah, it really is.
    2:31:06 You see so many moments when they could have stumbled.
    2:31:07 Yeah.
    2:31:10 And they built a first-generation machine just after 2000.
    2:31:14 And it wasn’t a surprise to them, but it detected nothing.
    2:31:14 Crickets.
    2:31:15 Mm-hmm.
    2:31:16 Crickets.
    2:31:19 And they just, you know, they have the wherewithal to keep going.
    2:31:21 Second generation.
    2:31:24 They’re about to turn the machine on, quote-unquote.
    2:31:27 You know, it’s a little bit of a simplification, but do their first science run.
    2:31:32 And they decide to postpone because they feel they’re not ready yet.
    2:31:34 It’s September 14th in 2015.
    2:31:37 And the experimentalists are out there.
    2:31:38 They’re in the middle of the night.
    2:31:47 You know, they’re working all night long, and they’re banging on the thing, you know, literally driving trucks, slamming the brakes on to see the noise that it creates.
    2:31:53 And so they’re really messing with the machine, really interfering with it just to kind of calibrate how much noise can this thing tolerate.
    2:31:56 And I guess the story is, is they get tired.
    2:31:59 There’s an instrument in Louisiana, and there’s one in Washington State, and they go home.
    2:32:01 Put their tools down.
    2:32:02 They go home.
    2:32:06 They leave the instrument locked, though, mercifully.
    2:32:17 And it’s something like within the span of an hour of them driving back to their humble abodes that they have in these remote regions where they built these instruments.
    2:32:27 This gravitational wave washes over, I think it hits Louisiana first, and travels across the U.S., brings the instrument in Washington State.
    2:32:34 It began, you know, over a billion and a half years ago, before multicellular organisms had emerged on the Earth.
    2:32:39 Just imagine this from, like, a distant view, this collision course, right?
    2:32:42 And it’s the centenary.
    2:32:46 It’s the year Einstein published general relativity.
    2:32:50 So it was this, you know, a hundred years.
    2:32:59 I mean, just think about where that signal was when Einstein in 1915 wrote down the general theory of relativity.
    2:33:00 It was on its way here.
    2:33:02 It was almost here.
    2:33:10 What do you think is cooler, Einstein’s general relativity or LIGO?
    2:33:18 Well, I can’t disparage my friends, but of course, relativity is just so all-encompassing.
    2:33:19 No, but hold on a second.
    2:33:24 All-encompassing, super powerful leap of a theory.
    2:33:24 Yeah.
    2:33:26 And…
    2:33:27 They built it.
    2:33:28 They built it.
    2:33:28 I don’t know, man.
    2:33:42 Because I don’t know, because, you know, yeah, humans getting together and building the thing, that’s really ultimately what impacts the world, right?
    2:33:43 Yeah.
    2:33:50 I mean, I just, as I said, my admiration for Ray and Kip and the entire team is enormous.
    2:33:54 And, you know, just imagining Ray had been out there on site.
    2:33:59 He had just left to go back home, wakes up in the middle of the night and sees it.
    2:34:00 You know, can you imagine?
    2:34:03 And there’s a signal, you know?
    2:34:05 There’s something in the log.
    2:34:06 He’s like, what the hell is that?
    2:34:13 So speaking of the human story, you also wrote the book, A Madman, Dreams of Turing Machines.
    2:34:17 It connects two geniuses of the 20th century, Alan Turing and Gödel.
    2:34:21 What specific threads connect these two minds?
    2:34:22 Yeah.
    2:34:26 I was really mesmerized by these two characters.
    2:34:37 People know of Alan Turing for having ideated about the computer, being the person to really imagine that.
    2:34:40 But his work began with thinking about Gödel’s work.
    2:34:41 That’s where it began.
    2:34:49 And it began with this phenomenon of undecidable propositions or unprovable propositions.
    2:34:54 So there was something huge that happened in mathematics.
    2:35:00 People imagined that any problem in math could technically be proven to be true.
    2:35:07 It doesn’t mean human beings are going to prove every fact about everything in mathematics, but, you know, it should be provable, right?
    2:35:10 I mean, it seemed kind of, it’s not that wild supposition.
    2:35:13 Everyone believed this, all the great mathematicians.
    2:35:16 Hilbert was a call of his to prove that.
    2:35:19 And Gödel, a very strange character.
    2:35:21 Very unusual.
    2:35:23 He was a Platonist.
    2:35:29 He literally believed that mathematical objects had an existential reality.
    2:35:33 He wasn’t so sure about this reality, this reality he struggled with.
    2:35:42 He was distrustful of physical reality, but he absolutely took very seriously a Platonic reality and often his own way of thinking.
    2:35:49 He believed that there were facts, that there were facts, that there were facts, even among the numbers, that could never be proven to be true.
    2:36:05 To think about that, how wild that is, that even a fact about numbers seems very simple, could be true and unprovable, could never exist as a theorem, for instance, in mathematics, unreachable.
    2:36:10 This incompleteness result was very disturbing.
    2:36:14 Essentially, it’s equivalent to saying there’s no theory of everything for mathematics.
    2:36:17 It was very disturbing to people, but it was very profound.
    2:36:25 Alan Turing got involved in this because he was thinking about uncomputable numbers.
    2:36:31 That led him, what’s an uncomputable number?
    2:36:33 A number like 0.175.
    2:36:35 It just goes on forever with no pattern.
    2:36:39 I can’t even figure out how to generate it.
    2:36:41 There’s no rule for making that number.
    2:36:47 He was able to prove that there were such things as these uncomputable, effectively unknowable numbers.
    2:36:51 That might not sound like a big deal, but it was actually really quite profound.
    2:36:56 He was relating to Godel intellectually, right, in the space of ideas.
    2:37:01 But he goes a very different path, almost philosophically the opposite direction.
    2:37:05 He starts to think about machines.
    2:37:07 He starts to think about mechanizing thought.
    2:37:09 He starts to think, what is a proof?
    2:37:11 How does a mathematician reason?
    2:37:12 What does it mean to reason at all?
    2:37:13 What does it mean to think?
    2:37:24 And he begins to imagine inventing a machine that will execute certain orders, you know, mechanize thought in a specific way.
    2:37:25 Well, maybe I can get a machine.
    2:37:28 I can imagine a machine that does this kind of thinking.
    2:37:34 And that he can prove that even a machine could not compute these uncomputable numbers.
    2:37:45 But where he ends up is the idea of a universal machine that computes, essentially can take different software and execute different jobs, right?
    2:37:49 We don’t have a different computer to connect to the Internet than we do to write papers.
    2:37:58 It’s one machine and one piece of hardware, but it can do all of these, this huge variety of tasks.
    2:38:01 And so he really does invent the computer, essentially.
    2:38:17 And famously, he uses that thinking in a very primitive form in the war effort, where he’s recruited to help break the German Enigma Code, which is heavily encrypted and largely believed to be uncrackable code.
    2:38:32 And people believe that Turing and his very small group actually turned the tide of the war in favor of the Allies precisely by using a combination of this thinking and just sheer ingenuity and some luck.
    2:38:43 But the other profound revelation that Turing has is that, well, maybe we’re just machines, right?
    2:38:45 And just biological machines.
    2:38:47 And this is a huge shift for him.
    2:38:55 It feels very different from Godel, who doesn’t really believe in reality and thinks numbers are platonic realities.
    2:38:59 And Turing kind of thinking, we’re kind of like, we’re actually machines and we could be replicated.
    2:39:05 So, of course, Turing’s influence is still widely felt.
    2:39:06 On many levels.
    2:39:08 On many levels, yeah.
    2:39:15 In complexity theories, in theoretical computer science and mathematics, but also in philosophy with his famous Turing test paper.
    2:39:25 So, like you said, conceiving, like, what is the connection that, I guess, Gerard never really made between mathematics and humanity, Turing did.
    2:39:32 But I think there’s another connection to those two people is that they’re both, in their own way, kind of tormented humans.
    2:39:33 Yeah, they were very tormented.
    2:39:41 What aspect of that contributed to who they are and what ideas they developed?
    2:39:43 I mean, I think so much.
    2:39:55 I don’t want to promote the kind of trite trope of the mad genius, you know, if you’re brilliant, you are insane.
    2:39:56 I don’t think that.
    2:39:58 I don’t think if you’re insane, you’re brilliant.
    2:40:19 But I do think if somebody who’s very brilliant, who also chooses not to go for regular gratification in life, they don’t go for money, they don’t necessarily value creature comforts, they’re not leveraging for fame.
    2:40:21 I mean, they’re really after something different.
    2:40:26 I think that can lead to a kind of runaway instability, actually, sometimes.
    2:40:31 So, they’re already outside of kind of social norms.
    2:40:34 They’re already outside of normal connections with people.
    2:40:36 They’ve already made that break.
    2:40:39 And I think that makes them more vulnerable.
    2:40:54 So, Gödel did have a wife and a strong relationship, as far as I understand, and was a successful mathematician and ended up at the Institute for Advanced Study, where he walked with Einstein to the Institute every day.
    2:40:57 And they talked about it.
    2:40:59 And he proved certain really unusual things in relativity.
    2:41:08 You made reference to these rotating galaxies we were talking, and actually, Gödel had a model of a rotating universe that you could travel backwards in time.
    2:41:10 It was mathematically correct.
    2:41:14 Showed Einstein that within relativity, you could time travel.
    2:41:19 Just an unbelievably influential and brilliant man.
    2:41:22 But he was probably a paranoid schizophrenic.
    2:41:26 He did have breaks with reality.
    2:41:40 He was, I think, quite distrustful and feared the government, feared his food was being poisoned, and ultimately, literally starved himself to death.
    2:41:52 And it’s such an extreme outcome for such a facile mind, for such a brilliant mind.
    2:41:58 I think it’s important not to glorify romanticized madness or suffering.
    2:42:10 But to me, you could flip that around and just be inspired by the peculiar maladies of a human mind, how they can be leveraged and channeled creatively.
    2:42:11 Oh, yeah.
    2:42:16 I think a lot of us, obviously, probably every human has those peculiar qualities.
    2:42:23 You know, I talk to people sometimes about just my own psychology, and I’m extremely self-critical.
    2:42:34 And I’m drawn to the beauty in people, but because I make myself vulnerable to the world, I can really be hurt by people.
    2:42:38 And that thing, okay, okay, you can lay that out, this particular human, okay?
    2:42:46 And, you know, there’s a bunch of people that will say, well, many of those things you don’t want to do.
    2:42:48 Maybe don’t be so self-critical.
    2:42:50 Maybe don’t be so open to the world.
    2:42:56 Maybe have a little bit more reason about how you interact with the outside world.
    2:42:58 It’s like, yeah, maybe.
    2:43:05 Or maybe be that, and be that fully, and channel that into a productive life, into, we’re all going to die.
    2:43:15 In the time we have on this earth, make the best of the particular weirdness that you have.
    2:43:19 And maybe you’ll create something special in this world.
    2:43:21 And in the end, it might destroy you.
    2:43:22 And I think a lot of these stories are that.
    2:43:23 It’s not that.
    2:43:24 Oh, yeah.
    2:43:30 It’s not like saying, oh, because in order to achieve anything great, you have to suffer.
    2:43:41 No, if you’re already suffering, if you’re already weird, if you’re already somehow don’t quite fit in your particular environment,
    2:43:43 in your particular part of society, use that somehow.
    2:43:46 Use the tension of that, the friction of that, to create something.
    2:43:55 I mean, that’s what I, you know, need you who suffered a lot from even, like, stupid stuff like stomach issues.
    2:43:56 Oh, yeah.
    2:43:57 That can be everything.
    2:43:58 Migraines.
    2:44:01 Psychosomatic or psychophysical.
    2:44:10 And all of a sudden, that’s the real, it’s like, that can somehow be channeled into a productive life.
    2:44:11 It should be inspiring.
    2:44:13 A lot of us suffer in different ways.
    2:44:14 Yeah.
    2:44:16 I’m a big believer in the tragic flaw, actually.
    2:44:19 I think the Greeks really had that right.
    2:44:21 You’re describing it.
    2:44:24 What makes us great is ultimately our downfall.
    2:44:25 Maybe that’s just inevitable.
    2:44:28 The choice could be not to be great.
    2:44:41 And I guess I, that’s sort of what I mean by they had already broken from a traditional path because they decided to pursue something so elusive.
    2:44:53 That would isolate them to some extent inevitably and that could fail, right?
    2:45:05 And I do think that all the character traits that went into their accomplishments were the same traits that went into their demise.
    2:45:07 And I think you’re right.
    2:45:11 You could say, well, you know, Lex, maybe you should not be so empathetic.
    2:45:14 Hold yourself, cut yourself off a little bit.
    2:45:14 Protect yourself.
    2:45:15 Right.
    2:45:25 But isn’t that exactly what you’re bringing, one of the elements that you’re bringing that makes something extraordinary in a space that lots of people try to break through.
    2:45:25 Yeah.
    2:45:36 And we should mention that for every girl at all in Turing, there’s millions of people who have tried and who have destroyed themselves and without reason.
    2:45:49 I would find it impossible to not pursue a discovery that I could imagine my way through if I can really see how to get there.
    2:46:00 I cannot imagine abandoning it for some other reason, fear that it would be misused, which is a real fear, right?
    2:46:01 I mean, it’s a real concern.
    2:46:09 I don’t think in my work, since I’m doing extra vengeance in the early universe or black holes, you know, I feel pretty safe.
    2:46:12 But, I mean, who knows, right?
    2:46:15 Bohr couldn’t think of a way to use quantum mechanics to kill people.
    2:46:22 I cannot imagine pulling back and saying, nope, I’m not going to finish this.
    2:46:26 You know, I’ll give you a counter example of an exceptionally brilliant person, Terrence Tao.
    2:46:27 Brilliant.
    2:46:28 Brilliant mathematician.
    2:46:29 Brilliant.
    2:46:43 He is better than, out of all the brilliant people I’ve ever met in the world, he’s better than anybody else at working on a hard problem and then realizing when it’s, for now, a little too hard.
    2:46:44 Oh, that I can do.
    2:46:46 It’s stepping away.
    2:46:47 Yeah.
    2:46:50 And he’s like, okay, this is now a weekend problem.
    2:46:50 Uh-huh.
    2:46:54 Because he has seen too much for him.
    2:46:55 Everybody’s different.
    2:47:04 But Grigori Perlman or Andrew Wiles, who give themselves fully, completely, for many years, over to a problem.
    2:47:04 Yes.
    2:47:06 And for every Grigori Perlman.
    2:47:07 And they might not have cracked it.
    2:47:08 Yep.
    2:47:11 So you choose your life story.
    2:47:11 I totally agree.
    2:47:16 Now, I’m not going to say sometimes I take too long to come to that conclusion.
    2:47:22 But I will proudly say, as most theoretical physicists should, that I kill most of my ideas myself.
    2:47:23 Okay.
    2:47:24 So you’re able to walk away.
    2:47:26 I am absolutely able to say, oh, that’s just not.
    2:47:34 I mean, I’m not going to deny that sometimes I maybe take a while to come to that conclusion longer than I should.
    2:47:35 But I will.
    2:47:36 I absolutely will.
    2:47:37 I will drop it.
    2:47:42 And that is, any self-respecting physicist should be able to do that.
    2:47:49 The problem is with somebody like Andrew Wiles, you were describing, who, to prove Fermat’s last theorem, it took him seven years.
    2:47:50 Was that the number?
    2:47:51 Something like that.
    2:47:56 He went up into his mother’s attic or something and did not emerge for seven years.
    2:47:58 Is that maybe he did.
    2:47:58 He was on the right track.
    2:47:59 He wasn’t wrong.
    2:48:02 But that’s how it could have been interminable.
    2:48:04 He still might not have gotten there.
    2:48:05 In the end.
    2:48:09 And so that’s the really difficult space to be in.
    2:48:11 Where you’re not wrong.
    2:48:13 You are on to something.
    2:48:19 But it’s just asymptotically approaching that solution and you’re never actually going to land it.
    2:48:21 That happens.
    2:48:25 And he had a really, it would break me, straight up break me.
    2:48:27 He had a proof.
    2:48:28 Yes.
    2:48:31 He announced it and somebody found a mistake in it.
    2:48:33 That would just break me.
    2:48:33 Yeah.
    2:48:35 Because now everybody gets excited.
    2:48:36 Right.
    2:48:40 And now you realize that it’s a failure and to go back.
    2:48:42 I mean, it was taking a year for people to check it.
    2:48:44 It’s not the kind of thing you’d look over in an afternoon.
    2:48:49 And then to have the will, to have the confidence and the patience to go back.
    2:48:50 Unbelievable story.
    2:48:51 And to rigorously go through, work through it.
    2:48:52 It’s a great story.
    2:48:53 But then there’s another great story.
    2:48:58 Gregory Perlman, who spent seven years and turned down the Fields Medal.
    2:48:59 He did it all alone.
    2:49:07 And then after he turned down the Fields Medal and the Millennial Prize, proving the Poincare conjecture, he just walked away.
    2:49:07 Yeah.
    2:49:10 Now, that’s a very different psychology.
    2:49:11 That’s wired differently.
    2:49:13 Doesn’t care about money.
    2:49:14 Doesn’t care about fame.
    2:49:15 Doesn’t care about anything else.
    2:49:15 Yep.
    2:49:21 In fact, in St. Petersburg, Russia, trying to get a conversation with him.
    2:49:29 It turns out, when you walk away and you’re a recluse and you enjoy that, you also don’t want to talk to some weird dude in a tie.
    2:49:34 So, it turns out, I’m trying, I’m trying.
    2:49:42 Well, if you look at someone like Turing, his eccentricities were completely different, right?
    2:49:46 It’s not as though there’s some mold, and I really don’t like it when it’s portrayed that way.
    2:49:53 These are really individuals who were still lost in their own minds, but in very different ways.
    2:49:59 And Turing was openly gay, really, during this time.
    2:50:04 You know, he was working during the war, World War II, so we understand the era.
    2:50:10 And it was illegal in Britain at the time.
    2:50:17 And he kind of refused to conceal himself.
    2:50:24 There was a time when the kind of attitude was, well, we’re just going to ignore it.
    2:50:30 But he had been robbed by somebody that he had picked up somewhere.
    2:50:31 I think it was in Manchester.
    2:50:33 And it was such a small thing.
    2:50:34 I don’t know what they took.
    2:50:35 It took like nothing.
    2:50:37 You know, it was nothing.
    2:50:40 But he couldn’t tolerate it.
    2:50:41 He goes to the police.
    2:50:43 And he tells them.
    2:50:45 And then he’s arrested.
    2:50:46 He’s the criminal.
    2:50:49 Because it involved this homosexual act.
    2:50:57 Now, here you have somebody who made a major contribution to the Allies winning the war.
    2:50:59 I mean, it’s just unbelievable.
    2:51:03 Not to mention the genius, mathematical genius.
    2:51:07 I mean, he saved the lives of the people that were doing this to him.
    2:51:13 And they essentially chemically castrated him as a punishment.
    2:51:14 That was his sentence.
    2:51:18 And he became very depressed and suicidal.
    2:51:25 And the story is he was obsessed with Snow White, which was recently released.
    2:51:32 And he used to chant one of the little, I don’t know if you would call them, poem songs.
    2:51:34 Dip the apple in the brew.
    2:51:37 Let the sleeping death seep through.
    2:51:38 It was a chant from Snow White.
    2:51:46 And the belief is that he dipped an apple in cyanide and bit from the poison apple.
    2:51:53 Now, I don’t know if this is apocryphal, but people think that the apple on the Macintosh with the bite out of it is a reference to Turing.
    2:51:54 Now, some people deny this.
    2:51:54 That’s nice.
    2:51:55 That’s nice.
    2:52:01 But some people say he did that so his mother could believe that maybe it was an accident.
    2:52:05 But, yeah, quite a terrible end.
    2:52:09 Yeah, but two of the greatest humans ever.
    2:52:23 I think the reason why I tie them together, not just because ultimately their work is so connected, but because there’s this sort of impossibility of understanding them.
    2:52:28 There’s this sort of impossibility of proving something about their lives.
    2:52:33 That even if you try to write factual biography, there’s something that eludes you.
    2:52:40 And I felt like that’s kind of fundamental to the mathematics, the incompleteness, the undecidable, the uncomputable.
    2:52:49 So, structurally, it was about what we can kind of know and what we can believe to be true but can’t ever really know.
    2:52:56 Limitations of formal systems, limitations of biography, limitations of fiction and nonfiction.
    2:52:57 Limitations.
    2:53:00 So, there’s so many layers to you.
    2:53:06 So, one of which there’s this romantic notion of just understanding humans, exploring humans.
    2:53:13 Then there’s the exploring science, then there’s the exploring the very rigorous, detailed physics and cosmology of things.
    2:53:16 So, there’s the kind of artistry.
    2:53:23 So, I saw that you’re the chief science officer of Pioneer Works, which is mostly like an artist type of situation.
    2:53:24 It’s a place in Brooklyn.
    2:53:30 Can you explain to me what that is and what role does art play in your life?
    2:53:30 Yeah.
    2:53:32 I can start with Pioneer Works.
    2:53:36 Pioneer Works, in some sense, it was inevitable that I would land at Pioneer Works.
    2:53:42 It felt like I was marching there for many years and just it came together again like this collision.
    2:53:46 It was founded by this artist, Dustin Yellen, very utopian idea.
    2:53:51 He bought this building, this old iron works factory called Pioneer Iron Works in Brooklyn.
    2:53:58 It was in complete disrepair, but a beautiful old building from the late 1800s.
    2:54:02 And he wanted to make this kind of collage.
    2:54:13 Dustin’s definitely a collage artist, works in glass, very big pieces, very imaginative and wild and narrative and into nature and consciousness.
    2:54:15 And I think he wanted to do that with people.
    2:54:23 He wanted a place of a collage, a living example of artists and scientists.
    2:54:27 And it was founded by Dustin and Gabriel Florence was the founding artistic director.
    2:54:31 It was started just before Hurricane Sandy.
    2:54:37 I don’t know if people feel as strongly about Hurricane Sandy as New Yorkers do, but it was a real moment around 2012, 2013.
    2:54:44 Sort of paused the project and you can even see the kind of water line on the brick of where Sandy was.
    2:54:51 I came in and collided with these two shortly after that, and it really was like a collision.
    2:54:54 I’m science, you know, they’re art.
    2:54:57 Gabe makes everything, builds everything with his bare hands.
    2:54:58 Dustin’s a dreamer.
    2:55:00 They love science.
    2:55:02 They really wanted science, but science is hard to access.
    2:55:10 I have always loved the translation of science in literature, in art.
    2:55:16 I love fiction writers, like really literary fiction writers who dabble thinking about science.
    2:55:19 And I very firmly believe science is part of culture.
    2:55:21 I just, I know it to be true.
    2:55:25 I don’t think of myself as doing outreach or education.
    2:55:26 I don’t like those labels.
    2:55:39 I’m doing culture and artists in their studio working out problems, understanding materials, building a body of work.
    2:55:44 Nobody says to them when they exhibit, why are you doing outreach or are you doing education?
    2:55:46 You know, it’s the logical extension.
    2:56:01 So I feel that if you’ve had the privilege of knowing some of these people, of seeing a little bit from the summit, if you’ve had a little glimpse yourself, that you bring it back to the world.
    2:56:03 So we, boom, exploded.
    2:56:06 Pioneerics became science and art.
    2:56:10 It’s not artists who all do science or scientists who do art.
    2:56:14 It’s real hardcore scientists talking about science on a lot of live events.
    2:56:21 We have a magazine called Broadcast where we feature all of the disciplines rubbing together, artists working on all kinds of things.
    2:56:27 When I first started doing events there, my first guest, like you, I was talking to people.
    2:56:30 And this was like, I know how to talk to people because I know these guys.
    2:56:34 And I’ve been on the interviewee side so much.
    2:56:35 I know exactly.
    2:56:38 It was like fully formed for me how to do those conversations.
    2:56:40 Yeah, you’re extremely good at that also.
    2:56:40 Yeah, thank you.
    2:56:41 I appreciate that.
    2:56:44 You learn how to do it too, though.
    2:56:46 I mean, I don’t think the first one I did, I think I’ve learned, right?
    2:56:50 And you acquire, you get better, which is really interesting.
    2:56:51 And I love to study.
    2:56:52 I think you do too.
    2:56:55 I really look into the material.
    2:56:57 And I love science.
    2:56:58 I really do.
    2:57:03 I want to talk to a CRISPR biologist because I don’t understand it and I want to understand it.
    2:57:08 And I saw there’s a bunch of cool events and a very, very fascinating variety of humans.
    2:57:09 Yes.
    2:57:12 We have a really fascinating variety of humans.
    2:57:13 That’s a good way of putting it.
    2:57:14 Yeah.
    2:57:20 So you put in my mental map of like, it’s a cool place to go and visit when in New York.
    2:57:21 Yes.
    2:57:22 You have to come see us.
    2:57:24 I think you would love it.
    2:57:25 Also, I should mention fashion.
    2:57:28 I’ve seen you do a bunch of talks and there’s a lot of fashion.
    2:57:29 Oh, yeah.
    2:57:30 Oh, my God.
    2:57:31 Appreciation of fashion going on.
    2:57:38 I am so, you’re giving me an opportunity to give a shout out to Andrea Lauer, who’s a designer
    2:57:43 who makes these amazing jumpsuits that I often wear in a lot of my events.
    2:57:49 She has a jumpsuit design line called Risen Division and she just makes these incredible,
    2:57:50 they’re fantastic.
    2:57:53 We also design patches for all of our events.
    2:57:56 So there are these string theory patches and consciousness patches.
    2:57:58 We should show this as overlays.
    2:57:59 Right.
    2:58:02 Hopefully, there’ll be nice pictures floating about everywhere.
    2:58:06 So, you know, I think all of this is just, I just like to experiment with life.
    2:58:09 I think making the magazine was a big, wild experiment.
    2:58:10 You said with life?
    2:58:11 With life.
    2:58:11 Nice.
    2:58:11 Yeah.
    2:58:19 This kind of idea that we were just describing is, I find it hard to stop the momentum if
    2:58:22 I think something can, I can make something.
    2:58:24 I have to try to make it.
    2:58:30 And to me, this is the closest I come to experimentation and collaboration.
    2:58:35 Because even though I collaborate theoretically, I have great collaborators, Brian Green, Massimo
    2:58:36 Parati, Dan Cabot.
    2:58:38 These are my really close collaborators.
    2:58:44 A lot of theoretical physics is alone and you’re in your mind a lot.
    2:58:52 This is something that really was built, this triad of Dustin, Gabe, and I, and all the amazing
    2:58:54 people who work there on our amazing board.
    2:58:55 We really are doing it together.
    2:59:01 You take one element out and it starts to, it starts to change shape.
    2:59:03 And that’s a very interesting experience, I think.
    2:59:06 And making things is an interesting experience.
    2:59:11 Since you mentioned literature, is there books that had an impact on your life, whether it’s
    2:59:15 literature, fiction, nonfiction?
    2:59:21 I love fiction, which I think people expect me to read a lot of, short of sci-fi or nonfiction.
    2:59:23 I mostly read fiction.
    2:59:28 I had a syllabus of great fiction writers that had science in it.
    2:59:30 And I love that syllabus.
    2:59:33 Can you ever make that public or no?
    2:59:34 Yeah, I suppose I could.
    2:59:36 But I can tell you some of them as they come to mind.
    2:59:41 Katsuya Ishiguro, who won the Nobel Prize, wrote Remains of the Day, probably most famously.
    2:59:44 His book, Never Let Me Go.
    2:59:46 It’s unbelievable.
    2:59:47 Totally devastating.
    2:59:49 Stunning.
    2:59:51 I see, I really love literature.
    2:59:57 So when people can do that with these very abstract themes, it’s sort of my favorite space
    2:59:59 for literature.
    3:00:01 Martin Amos wrote a book that runs backwards, Time’s Arrow.
    3:00:06 I love some of his other books even more, but Time’s Arrow is pretty clever.
    3:00:14 So you like it when these non-traditional mechanisms are applied to tell a story that’s fundamentally
    3:00:17 human, that there’s some dramatic tragic.
    3:00:18 And the beauty of the language.
    3:00:21 Like, I really appreciate that.
    3:00:24 Even Orwell is amazing.
    3:00:26 You know, Hitchens, writing on Orwell is amazing.
    3:00:31 There was some plays on the syllabus.
    3:00:33 I have to think of what else was in there.
    3:00:37 But there was one book that I think was kind of surprising that I think is an absolute masterpiece,
    3:00:38 which is The Road.
    3:00:40 And you might say, in what sense is The Road a science?
    3:00:44 Well, first of all, Cormac McCarthy absolutely loves scientists and science.
    3:00:48 And you can feel this very subtle influence in that book.
    3:00:59 It’s a really remarkable, precise, stunning, ethereal, all of these things at once.
    3:01:02 And there’s no who, what, where, when, or how.
    3:01:07 You might guess it’s a nuclear event that kicks off the book.
    3:01:11 A lot of people know The Road, I think, from the movie, but really the book is magnificent.
    3:01:18 And it’s very, very abstract, but there’s a sense to me in which it is, science is structuring.
    3:01:22 And still, fundamentally, that book is about the human story.
    3:01:23 Yeah, absolutely, the boy.
    3:01:24 Yeah.
    3:01:30 So, the science plays a role in creating the world, and within it, there’s still, really,
    3:01:40 it’s a different way to explore human dynamics in a way that’s maybe land some clarity and depth
    3:01:45 that maybe a more direct telling of the story will not, yeah.
    3:01:52 And even surreal worlds that, I mean, to me, I don’t know why, but I return to Orwell’s Animal Farm a lot.
    3:02:00 And it’s these kind of like, it’s another art form to be able to tell a simple story with some surreal elements.
    3:02:02 Mm-hmm, yeah.
    3:02:03 Well, just simple language.
    3:02:04 Mm-hmm.
    3:02:05 Oh, Animal Farm’s incredible.
    3:02:11 In fact, some of the, I’ve kind of played with, you know, some animals are more equal than others.
    3:02:16 There are, in Godel Turing’s work, there were some infinities that are bigger than others.
    3:02:25 Yeah, there’s certain books just kind of inject themselves into our culture in a way that just reverberates and,
    3:02:31 I don’t know, hasn’t, creates culture, not just, like, influences.
    3:02:32 Oh, yeah.
    3:02:36 It’s just like, it’s quite incredible how writing and literature can do that.
    3:02:37 Yeah.
    3:02:42 If you could have one definitive answer to one single question, this is the thing I mentioned to you.
    3:02:42 Oh, this is so hard.
    3:02:43 Yeah.
    3:02:47 Well, there’s an oracle, and you get to talk to that oracle.
    3:02:51 You can ask multiple questions, but it has to be on that topic.
    3:02:52 So, just clarify.
    3:02:53 Mm-hmm.
    3:02:58 What mystery of the universe would you want that oracle to help you with?
    3:02:59 You know, it’s funny.
    3:03:03 I should say the obvious thing, but I feel like, I almost feel like it would be greedy.
    3:03:06 I think of a complicated response to this.
    3:03:12 The obvious thing for me to say would be, I want to understand quantum gravity, or if gravity’s emergent.
    3:03:15 It’s not even something I work on day to day.
    3:03:23 You know, I mostly just look with interest at what others are doing, and if I think I can jump in, I would, but I’m not jumping into the fray.
    3:03:26 But, obviously, that’s the big, that’s the big one.
    3:03:31 And there is a sort of sense that with that will come the answers to all these other things.
    3:03:39 My complicated relationship is that, well, you know, part of the scientific disposition isn’t having stuff you don’t know the answer to.
    3:03:45 I mean, we’re not going to have all the answers, I hope, because then, sort of, then what?
    3:03:46 Right?
    3:03:47 It’s sort of dystopian.
    3:03:48 I totally agree with you.
    3:03:51 There’s some, I like the mysteries we have.
    3:03:52 Yeah.
    3:03:57 I kind of had this assumption that there will always be mysteries, so you’ll want to keep solving them.
    3:03:57 Right.
    3:03:58 They will lead to more.
    3:04:06 In the same way that relativity led to black holes, black holes led to the information loss paradox, or the Big Bang, or what happened before, or the multiverse.
    3:04:12 It’s because we learned so much, we were able to escalate to the next level of abstraction.
    3:04:19 Yeah, by the way, we should mention that if you’re talking about this oracle, and even if you ask the obvious question about quantum gravity,
    3:04:30 I almost guarantee you with 100% probability that even if all your questions are answered, it’s impossible to get to the end of your questions.
    3:04:31 Right.
    3:04:35 Because it says, you know, the oracle will say, no, you can’t unify.
    3:04:37 Then you say, well, wait.
    3:04:38 Yeah, yeah, yeah.
    3:04:39 And then you say emergent.
    3:04:44 And then the oracle will say, well, everything you think is fundamental is not.
    3:04:45 It’s emergent.
    3:04:49 It’s like, okay, well, this is, we need to, there’s more questions.
    3:04:50 That’s right.
    3:04:54 I mean, it’s been 100 years more since relativity, and we’re still picking it apart.
    3:04:55 Yeah.
    3:04:56 No.
    3:04:59 And there will be, there may be new ones.
    3:04:59 Mm-hmm.
    3:05:04 You write that eventually all our history in this universe will be erased.
    3:05:05 Mm-hmm.
    3:05:06 How does that make you feel?
    3:05:09 Yeah, it’s a tough thought.
    3:05:15 But, again, I think there’s a way in which we can come to terms with that, that that’s kind of poetic.
    3:05:19 You know, you build something in the sand, and then you erase it.
    3:05:23 Yeah.
    3:05:31 So I think it’s just a reminder that we have to be concerned about our immediate experience, too, right?
    3:05:49 how we are to those around us, how they are to us, what we leave behind in the near term, what we leave behind in the long term, how we contributed, and did we, you know, did we contribute overall net positive?
    3:06:09 Eventually, I think it’s kind of hard to imagine, but yes, all of these Nobel Prizes, all of these mathematical proofs, all of these conversations, all of these ideas, all of the influence we have on each other, even the AI, eventually, will expire.
    3:06:15 Well, at the very least, we can focus on drawing something beautiful in the sand.
    3:06:16 Yeah.
    3:06:17 Before it’s washed away.
    3:06:20 Well, this was an incredible conversation.
    3:06:22 I’m truly grateful for the work you do.
    3:06:24 And me for your work.
    3:06:25 Thanks so much for having me.
    3:06:26 Thank you for talking today.
    3:06:26 Yeah.
    3:06:27 Lots of fun.
    3:06:30 Thanks for listening to this conversation with Jan 11.
    3:06:34 To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description.
    3:06:41 And now, let me leave you with some words from Albert Einstein on the topic of relativity.
    3:06:46 When you’re courting a nice girl, an hour seems like a second.
    3:06:51 When you sit on a red-hot cinder, a second seems like an hour.
    3:06:54 That’s relativity.
    3:06:56 Thank you for listening.
    3:06:58 And hope to see you next time.

    Janna Levin is a theoretical physicist and cosmologist specializing in black holes, cosmology of extra dimensions, topology of the universe, and gravitational waves.
    Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep468-sc
    See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.

    Transcript:
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    OUTLINE:
    (00:00) – Introduction
    (00:51) – Sponsors, Comments, and Reflections
    (09:21) – Black holes
    (16:55) – Formation of black holes
    (27:45) – Oppenheimer and the Atomic Bomb
    (34:08) – Inside the black hole
    (47:10) – Supermassive black holes
    (50:39) – Physics of spacetime
    (53:42) – General relativity
    (59:13) – Gravity
    (1:15:47) – Information paradox
    (1:24:17) – Fuzzballs & soft hair
    (1:27:28) – ER = EPR
    (1:34:07) – Firewall
    (1:42:59) – Extra dimensions
    (1:45:24) – Aliens
    (2:01:00) – Wormholes
    (2:11:57) – Dark matter and dark energy
    (2:22:00) – Gravitational waves
    (2:34:08) – Alan Turing and Kurt Godel
    (2:46:23) – Grigori Perelman, Andrew Wiles, and Terence Tao
    (2:52:58) – Art and science
    (3:02:37) – The biggest mystery

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  • #467 – Tim Sweeney: Fortnite, Unreal Engine, and the Future of Gaming

    AI transcript

    Tim Sweeney is a legendary video game programmer, founder and CEO of Epic Games that created the Unreal Engine, Fortnite, Gears of War, Unreal Tournament, and many other groundbreaking and influential video games.
    Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep467-sc
    See below for timestamps, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.

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    OUTLINE:
    (00:00) – Introduction
    (08:25) – 10,000 hours programming
    (11:42) – Advice for young programmers
    (19:54) – Video games in the 80s and 90s
    (22:02) – Epic Games origin story
    (34:40) – Indie game development
    (40:34) – Unreal Engine
    (1:06:30) – Technical details of Unreal Engine
    (1:11:23) – Constructive solid geometry
    (1:17:21) – Dynamic lighting
    (1:21:51) – Volumetric fog
    (1:25:19) – John Carmack
    (1:27:05) – Evolution of Unreal Engine
    (1:33:21) – Unreal Engine 5
    (1:44:32) – Creating realistic humans
    (1:53:41) – Lumen global illumination
    (1:58:11) – Movies
    (2:12:53) – Simulating reality
    (2:25:08) – Metaverse
    (2:27:44) – Fortnite
    (2:31:40) – Scaling
    (2:47:04) – Game economies
    (2:48:33) – Standardizing the Metaverse
    (2:56:46) – Verse programming language
    (3:18:19) – Concurrency
    (3:25:56) – Unreal Engine 6
    (3:30:34) – Indie game developers
    (3:33:32) – Apple
    (3:48:12) – Epic Games Store
    (4:11:03) – Future of gaming
    (4:17:03) – Greatest games ever made
    (4:22:39) – GTA 6 and Rockstar Games
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  • #466 – Jeffrey Wasserstrom: China, Xi Jinping, Trade War, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Mao

    AI transcript
    0:00:03 The following is a conversation with Jeffrey Wasserstrom,
    0:00:05 a historian of modern China.
    0:00:09 And now, a quick few second mention of each sponsor.
    0:00:10 Check them out in the description.
    0:00:12 It’s the best way to support this podcast.
    0:00:15 We got Oracle for cloud computing,
    0:00:18 Tax Network USA for taxes,
    0:00:21 Shopify for selling stuff online,
    0:00:23 Element for electrolytes,
    0:00:26 and AG1 for a daily multivitamin.
    0:00:27 Choose wisely, my friends.
    0:00:31 Let me make the public service announcement
    0:00:34 that I’ve done a few times about these ad reads.
    0:00:35 I do them on RSS.
    0:00:38 I do them on Apple Podcasts, on Spotify.
    0:00:42 Based on the feedback I’ve gotten in the survey,
    0:00:44 lexfriedman.com slash survey.
    0:00:46 Many enjoy it.
    0:00:51 A quick, random, non-sequitur insights
    0:00:55 into whatever is going on in this particular mind.
    0:00:57 I don’t do the ad reads in a normal way.
    0:01:00 Half the time, I don’t really even talk about the sponsor.
    0:01:02 I’m just talking about stuff that I’m thinking about.
    0:01:06 Except maybe for a bit of a shout-out to the sponsor
    0:01:07 for being awesome
    0:01:09 and a quick description of what they do.
    0:01:12 Sometimes the sponsor itself, the topic,
    0:01:15 inspires me to think about certain kinds of topics.
    0:01:16 Anyway, that’s the point,
    0:01:19 to continuously be innovating,
    0:01:20 how to do this podcast thing.
    0:01:23 What is this?
    0:01:24 Who am I?
    0:01:26 And who are you?
    0:01:30 And why is it the connection between the two of us
    0:01:33 is so real?
    0:01:36 Me as a podcast fan,
    0:01:37 I listen to a lot of podcasts,
    0:01:41 and I legitimately feel like I am friends
    0:01:44 with the person I’m listening to.
    0:01:48 I think there’s a real way in which that is fundamentally true.
    0:01:50 I think people mock that.
    0:01:54 I think people say that that’s not a real connection.
    0:01:55 I think it’s a real connection.
    0:01:56 I don’t know.
    0:01:59 My life is fundamentally better for these friendships.
    0:02:02 Real or not real.
    0:02:07 Who’s to say I can’t have some great imaginary friends?
    0:02:11 Anyway, hopefully these ad reads are interesting.
    0:02:14 If you skip them, please still check out the sponsors.
    0:02:17 Sign up, get whatever they’re selling.
    0:02:18 I enjoy their stuff.
    0:02:19 Maybe you will too.
    0:02:23 Also, if you want to get in touch with me for whatever reason,
    0:02:25 go to lexfreeman.com slash contact.
    0:02:27 And now, on to the full ad reads.
    0:02:28 Let’s go.
    0:02:31 This episode is brought to you by Oracle,
    0:02:35 a company providing a fully integrated stack
    0:02:37 of cloud applications and cloud platform services.
    0:02:40 These guys do infrastructure well.
    0:02:43 Single platform for the infrastructure,
    0:02:44 for the database, application development,
    0:02:48 and obviously injecting AI into everything,
    0:02:49 including the pitches.
    0:02:54 These guys do compute infrastructure well
    0:02:56 and have been doing it for many, many years.
    0:02:59 Obviously, this episode about China,
    0:03:04 Taiwan, Hong Kong, trade,
    0:03:06 is very relevant to this topic.
    0:03:10 Boy, I sit back and think about the future of compute
    0:03:16 and how it is inextricably connected to the geopolitics,
    0:03:21 to the bullshit, to the madness of the online world
    0:03:22 where they’re talking shit to each other.
    0:03:27 The individual humans of the individual nations
    0:03:29 and the leaders of those humans
    0:03:32 and the leaders of those nations.
    0:03:34 Anyway, cut your bill in half
    0:03:36 when you switch to OCI,
    0:03:37 Oracle Cloud Infrastructure.
    0:03:40 Offer is for new U.S. customers
    0:03:42 with a minimum financial commitment
    0:03:45 to see if you qualify at oracle.com slash lex.
    0:03:47 That’s oracle.com slash lex.
    0:03:53 This episode is also brought to you by Tax Network, USA,
    0:03:57 a full-service tax firm focused on solving tax problems
    0:04:00 for individuals and small businesses.
    0:04:03 Whenever I see those three letters, USA,
    0:04:05 my heart fills with pride.
    0:04:06 I don’t know.
    0:04:09 I see stuff online where people are talking shit
    0:04:10 about this country,
    0:04:15 where there’s experts and historians
    0:04:17 and scholars and trolls
    0:04:21 talking about the collapsing empire
    0:04:23 that is the United States.
    0:04:26 There may be elements that signal that.
    0:04:28 There may be reasons for concern.
    0:04:30 But let’s not forget
    0:04:32 how incredibly brilliant
    0:04:35 the humans that make up this country are,
    0:04:37 how resourceful they are,
    0:04:40 how vibrant their creativity
    0:04:43 there really is a consequence
    0:04:44 to the freedoms,
    0:04:46 the individual freedoms we experience
    0:04:47 as humans here.
    0:04:50 But anyway, USA, I love this country.
    0:04:53 And yeah, a lot of it does run on taxes.
    0:04:57 The reality is the tax law is complicated.
    0:04:59 And so you have to figure out this mess
    0:05:01 and Tax Network, USA, helps you with the mess.
    0:05:04 If you missed the April 15th deadline,
    0:05:06 yes, I’m talking to you.
    0:05:07 I see you.
    0:05:09 We’re in this together, my friend.
    0:05:11 I’m not very good with deadlines.
    0:05:14 Perhaps you’re not very good at deadlines.
    0:05:16 I’m giving you a virtual hug.
    0:05:18 Let’s get our shit together
    0:05:21 and claw our way out of the whatever bullshit
    0:05:23 we’ve got ourselves into.
    0:05:26 Talk with one of their strategists for free today.
    0:05:34 Call 1-800-958-1000 or go to TNUSA.com slash Lex.
    0:05:37 This episode is also brought to you by Shopify,
    0:05:41 a platform designed for anyone to sell anywhere
    0:05:42 with a great looking online store.
    0:05:45 I don’t know why I said the beginning of that sentence fast.
    0:05:47 Sometimes I speak quickly, sometimes slowly.
    0:05:52 My mind is just not made for speaking.
    0:05:55 I think very fast and speak very slowly.
    0:06:02 And it creates for some really interesting nonlinear dynamics
    0:06:06 of interacting between a brain that’s way ahead of the mouth.
    0:06:08 and the mouth struggles.
    0:06:14 The struggle creates a third-person kind of anxiety
    0:06:17 that the brain has to also deal with
    0:06:19 while it’s thinking about the next thing,
    0:06:22 also coming up with different trajectories of thought.
    0:06:25 And so I’m generating a mess,
    0:06:27 but I’m enjoying it.
    0:06:29 I think I’m supposed to talk about Shopify.
    0:06:32 I’m not doing so well at that right now.
    0:06:36 It’s a website, a platform, where you can sell stuff.
    0:06:39 By the way, a lot of really fascinating discussions
    0:06:43 about the way China thinks about its economy,
    0:06:46 about its politics,
    0:06:50 about the interplay between the government and the entrepreneur.
    0:06:53 I’ll probably do a lot more episodes on that topic.
    0:06:57 Shopify is a really interesting case study.
    0:07:00 China is a really interesting case study.
    0:07:04 So sign up for a $1 per month trial period
    0:07:06 at shopify.com slash lex.
    0:07:07 That’s all lowercase.
    0:07:08 Go to shopify.com slash lex
    0:07:10 and take your business to the next level today.
    0:07:14 This episode is brought to you by Element,
    0:07:18 my daily zero sugar and delicious electrolyte mix.
    0:07:21 I often think about the biochemistry of thirst.
    0:07:25 And no, not the Urban Dictionary definition of thirst,
    0:07:27 although I think about that as well.
    0:07:28 But in this particular topic,
    0:07:30 I’m thinking about the biochemistry
    0:07:36 of your body communicating with you,
    0:07:40 the neurobiology of awareness
    0:07:45 of the malnourishment of the rest of the body
    0:07:48 and how all of that evolved.
    0:07:51 Started as a bacteria, fish, mammal.
    0:07:55 Now we get thirsty, need the salt,
    0:07:57 need the electrolytes, need the water.
    0:07:58 I’m getting that in the brain.
    0:08:01 Sometimes the brain doesn’t tell you that directly.
    0:08:03 Sometimes it tells you that through a headache
    0:08:05 and you feel like shit.
    0:08:07 You wonder what’s going on.
    0:08:11 Well, a lot of that, a lot, a lot of life’s problems
    0:08:14 could be solved with a nap, with a shower,
    0:08:16 and with a drink of water,
    0:08:20 with magnesium, potassium, and sodium.
    0:08:22 It’s fucking ridiculous, really.
    0:08:27 We are just meat vehicles that need to chill out.
    0:08:31 Anyway, I am doing a bunch of interesting conversations
    0:08:33 about Darwinian evolution.
    0:08:35 Darwin, fascinating guy.
    0:08:37 Evolution, fascinating topic.
    0:08:38 I can’t wait.
    0:08:41 Get a sample pack for free with any purchase.
    0:08:43 Try it at drinkelement.com slash lex.
    0:08:46 This episode is also brought to you by
    0:08:50 AG1, an all-in-one daily drink
    0:08:52 to support better health and peak performance.
    0:08:55 I recently got a chance to hang out with my family
    0:08:58 and they’re all fans of AG1.
    0:09:01 And we talked about it and it’s great.
    0:09:03 It’s great how you’re talking to each of them.
    0:09:06 There’s just a different approach to health,
    0:09:09 but they’re all fighting the battle of being healthy
    0:09:10 and winning, honestly.
    0:09:14 I do see health as a kind of individual
    0:09:16 end-of-one puzzle that we all solve.
    0:09:20 We gather a lot of information as best we can.
    0:09:22 We understand the latest state-of-the-art science,
    0:09:24 but really at the end of the day,
    0:09:27 it’s a personal puzzle that has to be solved.
    0:09:31 How does a healthy lifestyle fit into all the rest
    0:09:33 of the anxieties, the psychology,
    0:09:36 the crazy schedule, the motivations,
    0:09:39 the ambitions, the insecurities, all of that?
    0:09:41 How do you figure out that puzzle?
    0:09:44 And do that in a way where it’s stable
    0:09:48 across weeks and months and becomes a ritual.
    0:09:50 And then, of course, the psychology of ritual
    0:09:51 comes into play.
    0:09:52 All that is really fascinating.
    0:09:53 All right.
    0:09:57 AG1 will give you one month’s supply of fish oil
    0:10:01 when you sign up at drinkag1.com slash lex.
    0:10:04 This is the Lex Friedman Podcast.
    0:10:06 To support it, please check out our sponsors
    0:10:07 in the description.
    0:10:09 And now, dear friends,
    0:10:12 here’s Jeffrey Wasserstrom.
    0:10:31 You’ve compared Xi Jinping and Mao Zedong in the past.
    0:10:34 What are the parallels between the two leaders?
    0:10:36 And where do they differ?
    0:10:39 Xi Jinping, of course, is the current leader of China
    0:10:40 for the past 12 years.
    0:10:43 And Mao Zedong was the communist leader of China
    0:10:45 from 1949 to 1976.
    0:10:48 So what are the commonalities?
    0:10:49 What are the differences?
    0:10:52 So the biggest commonality of them
    0:10:56 is that they’re both the subject of personality cults
    0:10:58 and that Mao was the center
    0:11:00 of a very intensely felt one
    0:11:02 from 1949 to 1976.
    0:11:03 And when he died, you know,
    0:11:06 there was tremendous outpouring of grief,
    0:11:09 even among people who had objectively suffered enormously
    0:11:11 because of his policies.
    0:11:15 Xi Jinping is the first leader in China since him
    0:11:19 who has had a sustained personality cult
    0:11:22 of the kind where if you walk into a bookstore in China,
    0:11:25 the first thing you see are books by him,
    0:11:26 collections of speeches.
    0:11:29 And when Mao was alive,
    0:11:31 you might have thought that’s sort of what happened
    0:11:32 with Communist Party leaders in China.
    0:11:34 But after Mao’s death,
    0:11:35 there was such an effort
    0:11:37 to not have that kind of personality cult
    0:11:39 that there was a tendency
    0:11:41 to not publish the speeches of a leader
    0:11:44 until they were done being in power.
    0:11:46 I was first in China in 1986,
    0:11:49 and you could go for days
    0:11:51 without being intensely aware
    0:11:53 of who was in charge of the party.
    0:11:56 But his face wasn’t everywhere.
    0:11:59 The newspaper wasn’t dominated
    0:12:00 with stories about him
    0:12:03 and quotations from his words
    0:12:04 and things like that.
    0:12:05 So with Xi Jinping,
    0:12:07 you’ve had a throwback to that period
    0:12:08 in Communist Party rule,
    0:12:10 which seemed as though it might be
    0:12:12 a part of the past.
    0:12:14 So that’s a key commonality.
    0:12:16 And a key difference
    0:12:19 is that Mao really reveled in chaos,
    0:12:22 in turning things upside down
    0:12:23 in a sense that,
    0:12:26 you know, he talked about class struggle,
    0:12:27 which came out of Marxism,
    0:12:29 but he also really,
    0:12:32 his favorite work of Chinese popular fiction
    0:12:33 was the Monkey King
    0:12:35 about this legendary figure
    0:12:37 who was this Monkey King
    0:12:40 who could turn the heavens upside down.
    0:12:41 So he reveled in disorder
    0:12:44 and thought disorder was a way
    0:12:45 to improve things.
    0:12:46 Xi Jinping is very orderly,
    0:12:48 is very concerned
    0:12:49 with kind of stability
    0:12:50 and predictability.
    0:12:52 So you can see them
    0:12:54 as very, very different that way.
    0:12:56 And Mao also liked to stir things up,
    0:12:57 liked to have people on the streets
    0:12:59 clamoring.
    0:13:00 So Xi Jinping,
    0:13:01 even though he has a personality cult,
    0:13:03 it’s not manifesting itself.
    0:13:05 He doesn’t like the idea
    0:13:06 of people on the streets
    0:13:09 in anything that can’t be controlled.
    0:13:11 So you can, you know,
    0:13:12 there are a lot of ways
    0:13:13 that they’re similar,
    0:13:14 a lot of ways they’re different.
    0:13:15 They’re also different,
    0:13:17 and this fits with this orderliness
    0:13:20 that Xi Jinping talks positively
    0:13:21 about Confucius
    0:13:24 and Confucian traditions in China.
    0:13:27 And Confucian traditions
    0:13:29 are based on kind of stable hierarchies
    0:13:30 for the most part
    0:13:33 and sort of clear categories
    0:13:34 of superior and inferior,
    0:13:36 whereas Mao liked things
    0:13:37 to be turned upside down.
    0:13:38 He thought of Confucianism
    0:13:40 as a futile way of thought
    0:13:42 that it held China back.
    0:13:43 So you can come up with things
    0:13:45 that they’re similar,
    0:13:46 and you can come up with things
    0:13:47 where they’re really opposites.
    0:13:48 But they both clearly
    0:13:50 did want to see China
    0:13:52 under rule by the Communist Party.
    0:13:54 And that’s been a continuity,
    0:13:55 and that connects them
    0:13:56 to the leaders
    0:13:57 in between them too as well.
    0:13:58 So there’s some degree,
    0:13:59 as you said,
    0:14:00 that Xi Jinping espouses
    0:14:01 the ideas of communism
    0:14:04 and the ideas of Confucianism.
    0:14:07 So let’s go all the way back.
    0:14:08 You wrote that in order
    0:14:10 to understand the China of today,
    0:14:12 we have to study its past.
    0:14:15 So the China of today
    0:14:17 celebrates ideas of Confucius,
    0:14:18 a Chinese philosopher
    0:14:20 who lived 2,500 years ago.
    0:14:21 Can you tell me
    0:14:23 about the ideas of Confucius?
    0:14:24 First of all,
    0:14:25 we don’t know that much
    0:14:27 about the historic Confucius.
    0:14:29 He’s around the same time
    0:14:31 as figures like Socrates.
    0:14:34 And like with Socrates,
    0:14:35 we get a lot of
    0:14:36 what we know about him
    0:14:37 or think we know about him
    0:14:39 from what his followers said
    0:14:40 and things that were
    0:14:42 attributed to him
    0:14:43 and dialogues
    0:14:44 that were written afterwards.
    0:14:45 So, you know,
    0:14:47 you can have a lot of fun
    0:14:48 with these sort of
    0:14:50 axial age thinkers
    0:14:51 and what they had in common.
    0:14:52 Another thing
    0:14:53 that connects
    0:14:54 these axial age thinkers
    0:14:56 is they were trying
    0:14:58 to kind of make a case
    0:15:00 for why they should be able
    0:15:00 to educate
    0:15:02 the next generation,
    0:15:02 the elite,
    0:15:04 and sort of had a way
    0:15:05 of promising
    0:15:06 saying that they had
    0:15:07 philosophical ideas
    0:15:09 that helped keep,
    0:15:10 decide how you should
    0:15:11 run a polity.
    0:15:13 Confucius lived in a time
    0:15:13 when there were
    0:15:15 these warring kingdoms
    0:15:16 in a territory
    0:15:19 that later became China.
    0:15:20 But what he said
    0:15:21 was that there had been
    0:15:22 this period of great order
    0:15:23 in the past
    0:15:25 that the lines
    0:15:25 between inferior
    0:15:27 and superior were clear
    0:15:28 and there was a kind
    0:15:29 of synergy
    0:15:30 between superior
    0:15:31 and inferior
    0:15:32 that kept everything
    0:15:32 ticking along
    0:15:33 really nicely.
    0:15:34 he thought that
    0:15:36 hierarchical relationships
    0:15:37 were a good thing
    0:15:38 and that the trick
    0:15:40 was that both sides
    0:15:42 in a hierarchical relationship
    0:15:43 owed something
    0:15:43 to the other.
    0:15:45 So the father
    0:15:48 and son relationship
    0:15:49 was a key one.
    0:15:49 The father
    0:15:51 deserved respect
    0:15:52 from the son
    0:15:54 but owed the son
    0:15:55 care
    0:15:55 and benevolence
    0:15:57 and things would be fine
    0:15:59 as long as both sides
    0:16:00 in a relationship
    0:16:01 held up their end.
    0:16:02 and he had a whole series
    0:16:04 of these relationships.
    0:16:05 The husband
    0:16:05 to the wife
    0:16:06 was again
    0:16:07 an unequal one
    0:16:09 of the husband
    0:16:10 being superior
    0:16:11 to the wife
    0:16:12 but him
    0:16:13 owing the wife
    0:16:14 care
    0:16:14 and her
    0:16:15 owing him
    0:16:16 deference.
    0:16:17 And he had
    0:16:17 the same notion
    0:16:18 that then
    0:16:19 the emperor
    0:16:20 to the ministers
    0:16:20 were,
    0:16:21 these were all parallels
    0:16:23 and there were
    0:16:24 no egalitarian
    0:16:25 relationships
    0:16:26 in Confucianism.
    0:16:27 Even something
    0:16:29 that in the West
    0:16:30 we often think of
    0:16:31 as a kind of
    0:16:33 quintessentially
    0:16:34 egalitarian relationship
    0:16:35 between brothers.
    0:16:38 In the Chinese tradition
    0:16:39 of Confucianism
    0:16:40 there was only
    0:16:41 older brother
    0:16:42 and younger brother.
    0:16:43 There was no,
    0:16:44 brotherhood was not
    0:16:46 an egalitarian relationship.
    0:16:47 It was one
    0:16:48 where the older brother
    0:16:49 took care of the younger brother
    0:16:50 and the younger brother
    0:16:51 showed respect
    0:16:52 for the older brother.
    0:16:53 So stable hierarchy
    0:16:55 was at the core
    0:16:56 of everything in society.
    0:16:57 It permeated everything
    0:16:58 including politics.
    0:16:58 Yeah,
    0:17:00 and there was even
    0:17:01 a sense that it
    0:17:03 connected the natural world
    0:17:04 to the supernatural world.
    0:17:06 So the emperor
    0:17:07 was to heaven
    0:17:08 this kind of
    0:17:10 non-personified
    0:17:12 deity
    0:17:13 like the emperor
    0:17:15 was to the ministers.
    0:17:16 So all of this
    0:17:17 had these relationships.
    0:17:18 So the emperor
    0:17:19 was the son of heaven.
    0:17:20 And
    0:17:21 you know
    0:17:22 for Confucius
    0:17:23 he said
    0:17:24 so we should study
    0:17:25 the text.
    0:17:26 We should study
    0:17:27 how the sages of old
    0:17:29 behaved
    0:17:30 that
    0:17:32 society was becoming
    0:17:32 corrupted
    0:17:33 and was going away
    0:17:35 from that sort of purity
    0:17:36 of the sages
    0:17:37 when
    0:17:38 the relationships
    0:17:39 were all in order.
    0:17:40 So Confucianism
    0:17:42 was a kind of
    0:17:42 conservative
    0:17:43 or even
    0:17:45 backward looking
    0:17:45 thing.
    0:17:46 It wasn’t trying to
    0:17:47 it wasn’t arguing
    0:17:48 for progress.
    0:17:48 It was arguing
    0:17:49 for
    0:17:50 reclaiming
    0:17:50 a pure
    0:17:51 golden age
    0:17:52 in the past.
    0:17:53 So it was also
    0:17:53 a kind of
    0:17:54 conservative.
    0:17:55 So in all kinds
    0:17:55 of ways
    0:17:57 it’s irreconcilable
    0:17:58 to many things
    0:17:59 about Marxism
    0:17:59 and communism
    0:18:01 which is all about
    0:18:01 struggle
    0:18:02 and all about
    0:18:03 actually
    0:18:05 a progressive view
    0:18:05 of history
    0:18:05 moving from
    0:18:06 one stage
    0:18:07 to the next.
    0:18:07 So that’s the
    0:18:08 interesting thing
    0:18:09 about Xi Jinping
    0:18:09 and the China
    0:18:10 of today
    0:18:11 is there is
    0:18:11 that tension
    0:18:12 of Confucianism
    0:18:13 and communism
    0:18:14 where
    0:18:15 communism
    0:18:15 Marxism
    0:18:16 is supposed to
    0:18:17 let go of history
    0:18:19 and Confucianism
    0:18:19 there’s a real
    0:18:20 veneration
    0:18:21 of history
    0:18:22 that’s happening
    0:18:23 in China
    0:18:23 of today.
    0:18:24 So they’re able
    0:18:25 to wear both
    0:18:26 hats
    0:18:27 and balance it.
    0:18:29 Yeah, you could say
    0:18:31 that in many points
    0:18:33 in the 20th century
    0:18:34 there was a kind of
    0:18:36 a kind of struggle
    0:18:37 between different
    0:18:39 competing political groups
    0:18:40 over which part
    0:18:41 of the Chinese past
    0:18:43 to connect with.
    0:18:43 Was it to the
    0:18:45 Confucian tradition
    0:18:46 or to the kind of
    0:18:46 rebellious
    0:18:48 monkey king tradition
    0:18:48 which was what
    0:18:50 Mao connected to?
    0:18:51 Xi Jinping
    0:18:52 and before him
    0:18:53 to some extent
    0:18:54 you know
    0:18:55 Hu Jintao
    0:18:56 we saw this a little bit
    0:18:56 at the Olympics
    0:18:57 there was more
    0:18:57 this kind of
    0:18:59 mix-it-all-together view
    0:19:00 anything that suggested
    0:19:02 greatness in the past
    0:19:03 could be something
    0:19:04 that could be
    0:19:05 fused together.
    0:19:06 So Xi Jinping
    0:19:08 says that
    0:19:08 you know
    0:19:10 Mao is one of his
    0:19:11 heroes
    0:19:11 or one of the people
    0:19:12 he looks to as a model
    0:19:14 but so is Confucius
    0:19:15 and
    0:19:16 there’s really
    0:19:17 you know
    0:19:18 they had so little
    0:19:19 in common
    0:19:19 but
    0:19:21 they both
    0:19:21 in his mind
    0:19:22 and the minds of others
    0:19:23 suggest a kind of
    0:19:25 power and greatness
    0:19:26 of the Chinese past.
    0:19:27 yeah so this
    0:19:29 platonic notion
    0:19:29 of greatness
    0:19:31 and that
    0:19:32 you could say
    0:19:32 connects
    0:19:34 that’s a thread
    0:19:34 that connects
    0:19:35 for Xi Jinping
    0:19:37 the great
    0:19:38 history
    0:19:40 multi-thousand year
    0:19:41 history of China.
    0:19:43 yeah and it involves
    0:19:44 smoothing out
    0:19:45 all kinds of
    0:19:46 internal contradictions
    0:19:47 you had
    0:19:48 you know
    0:19:48 the first emperor
    0:19:49 of China
    0:19:51 jumping forward a bit
    0:19:51 you know
    0:19:52 in 221 BC
    0:19:52 he
    0:19:55 is anti-scholars
    0:19:56 he burns books
    0:19:57 and he
    0:19:58 doesn’t
    0:19:59 venerate
    0:20:00 these kind of
    0:20:00 rituals
    0:20:01 and things
    0:20:03 so he’s very much
    0:20:04 against the things
    0:20:05 that Confucius
    0:20:06 stood for
    0:20:07 but
    0:20:08 and Mao
    0:20:08 in a sense
    0:20:09 of having to choose
    0:20:10 between Confucius
    0:20:11 and the first emperor
    0:20:12 he said
    0:20:12 well
    0:20:13 maybe the first emperor
    0:20:14 had the right idea
    0:20:15 you know
    0:20:16 scholars can be
    0:20:16 can be
    0:20:17 a pain
    0:20:17 so
    0:20:19 he said like
    0:20:20 if you have to choose
    0:20:21 between Confucianism
    0:20:21 and that
    0:20:22 but Xi Jinping
    0:20:23 I think continually
    0:20:25 is kind of
    0:20:25 not choosing
    0:20:26 and if he wants
    0:20:26 to say
    0:20:27 well look at
    0:20:28 the great wall
    0:20:29 look at this
    0:20:29 wonderful
    0:20:30 in fact
    0:20:31 that was a symbol
    0:20:31 of kind of
    0:20:32 strength
    0:20:33 and domination
    0:20:33 related to
    0:20:34 the first emperor
    0:20:36 who by the way
    0:20:36 didn’t build
    0:20:37 anything like
    0:20:38 the great wall
    0:20:39 you see today
    0:20:40 he built walls
    0:20:41 and they were fine
    0:20:41 you know
    0:20:42 they were good
    0:20:43 but the great wall
    0:20:44 itself didn’t come
    0:20:45 into being
    0:20:46 until many centuries
    0:20:47 later
    0:20:48 but still this idea
    0:20:49 of anything
    0:20:49 that suggests
    0:20:50 a kind of
    0:20:51 greatness
    0:20:52 is something
    0:20:53 that as a
    0:20:54 in many ways
    0:20:55 a nationalist
    0:20:56 above all else
    0:20:56 Xi Jinping
    0:20:57 is a
    0:20:59 supporter of the party
    0:21:01 and single party rule
    0:21:01 that’s something
    0:21:02 he clearly believes in
    0:21:04 and he’s
    0:21:06 a nationalist
    0:21:06 he wants
    0:21:08 to see China
    0:21:08 be great
    0:21:10 and acknowledge
    0:21:10 this great
    0:21:11 on the world stage
    0:21:12 boy
    0:21:14 so many contradictions
    0:21:14 always
    0:21:15 with Stalin
    0:21:16 he was a communist
    0:21:18 but also a nationalist
    0:21:19 right
    0:21:20 that contradiction
    0:21:20 is
    0:21:21 is
    0:21:22 is
    0:21:24 also permeates
    0:21:24 through
    0:21:24 through Mao
    0:21:25 and all the way
    0:21:26 to Xi Jinping
    0:21:26 but if you can
    0:21:27 linger on
    0:21:29 Confucius for a little bit
    0:21:30 you write that
    0:21:30 one of the most
    0:21:31 famous statements
    0:21:32 of Confucianism
    0:21:33 is the belief
    0:21:34 that quote
    0:21:35 people are pretty much
    0:21:35 alike at birth
    0:21:36 but become
    0:21:37 differentiated
    0:21:38 via learning
    0:21:39 so this
    0:21:40 sets the tradition
    0:21:41 that China
    0:21:42 places a high value
    0:21:42 on education
    0:21:43 and on meritocracy
    0:21:45 can you speak
    0:21:46 to this
    0:21:49 Confucius’s
    0:21:49 idea
    0:21:50 of education
    0:21:52 and how much
    0:21:53 does it
    0:21:54 permeate
    0:21:54 to the China
    0:21:55 of today
    0:21:56 sure
    0:21:57 so
    0:21:58 there’s an optimism
    0:21:59 to this
    0:22:00 there’s an optimism
    0:22:00 in the sense
    0:22:01 of a
    0:22:02 ability
    0:22:03 that people
    0:22:04 can be good
    0:22:04 and
    0:22:06 when exposed
    0:22:06 to
    0:22:08 exemplary
    0:22:08 figures
    0:22:09 from the past
    0:22:10 they’ll want to be
    0:22:11 like those
    0:22:12 exemplary figures
    0:22:12 so it’s a form
    0:22:13 of education
    0:22:14 through kind
    0:22:15 of emulation
    0:22:16 of models
    0:22:18 and study
    0:22:19 of past
    0:22:19 figures
    0:22:20 and past
    0:22:20 texts
    0:22:21 that were
    0:22:22 exemplary
    0:22:22 and it
    0:22:24 did have
    0:22:25 this idea
    0:22:27 a relatively
    0:22:28 positive view
    0:22:28 of human
    0:22:28 nature
    0:22:29 and the
    0:22:29 sort of
    0:22:31 changeability
    0:22:31 of humans
    0:22:32 through
    0:22:33 education
    0:22:34 and I think
    0:22:35 that shows
    0:22:35 through in
    0:22:36 all kinds
    0:22:37 of things
    0:22:38 even the fact
    0:22:39 that while
    0:22:39 there were
    0:22:39 lots of
    0:22:40 killings
    0:22:40 by the
    0:22:40 Chinese
    0:22:41 Communist
    0:22:41 Party
    0:22:42 and other
    0:22:42 groups
    0:22:43 there was
    0:22:43 often
    0:22:44 an idea
    0:22:45 that
    0:22:46 people
    0:22:47 could be
    0:22:48 could be
    0:22:49 remolded
    0:22:50 potentially
    0:22:51 and China
    0:22:51 was one
    0:22:51 of the few
    0:22:52 places
    0:22:52 where
    0:22:53 they didn’t
    0:22:54 kill
    0:22:54 the
    0:22:55 last
    0:22:56 emperor
    0:22:57 you know
    0:22:57 the last
    0:22:57 emperor
    0:22:58 the idea
    0:22:59 was that
    0:22:59 he could
    0:23:00 become
    0:23:00 anybody
    0:23:01 could be
    0:23:02 kind of
    0:23:03 turned into
    0:23:04 a citizen
    0:23:05 of this
    0:23:06 or a subject
    0:23:07 of this
    0:23:08 a good
    0:23:09 a good
    0:23:10 member
    0:23:10 of this
    0:23:11 polity
    0:23:12 through
    0:23:12 the
    0:23:12 kind
    0:23:13 of
    0:23:14 education
    0:23:14 often
    0:23:14 it
    0:23:14 was
    0:23:14 a very
    0:23:15 kind
    0:23:15 of
    0:23:15 forceful
    0:23:15 form
    0:23:16 of
    0:23:16 education
    0:23:17 but I think
    0:23:18 that’s a
    0:23:18 carryover
    0:23:19 from the
    0:23:20 Confucian
    0:23:20 times
    0:23:22 and
    0:23:24 over time
    0:23:26 this Confucian
    0:23:26 idea led
    0:23:27 to the
    0:23:28 creation of
    0:23:28 one of the
    0:23:29 early great
    0:23:30 civil service
    0:23:31 exams
    0:23:31 an idea
    0:23:31 that
    0:23:32 bureaucracy
    0:23:33 should be
    0:23:33 run
    0:23:34 not by
    0:23:34 people
    0:23:35 who were
    0:23:35 born
    0:23:36 into
    0:23:36 the
    0:23:36 right
    0:23:36 families
    0:23:37 but
    0:23:37 ones
    0:23:37 who
    0:23:37 had
    0:23:38 shown
    0:23:39 their
    0:23:39 ability
    0:23:39 to
    0:23:40 master
    0:23:40 these
    0:23:40 really
    0:23:41 intensive
    0:23:42 kind
    0:23:42 of
    0:23:43 exams
    0:23:43 and
    0:23:43 the
    0:23:44 exams
    0:23:44 were
    0:23:44 things
    0:23:44 that
    0:23:44 could
    0:23:45 make
    0:23:45 or
    0:23:45 break
    0:23:45 your
    0:23:46 career
    0:23:47 a bit
    0:23:47 like
    0:23:47 at
    0:23:47 some
    0:23:48 points
    0:23:48 in the
    0:23:48 American
    0:23:49 past
    0:23:50 passing
    0:23:50 a
    0:23:50 bar
    0:23:50 exam
    0:23:51 a
    0:23:51 really
    0:23:51 intensive
    0:23:52 thing
    0:23:52 could
    0:23:53 set
    0:23:53 you
    0:23:53 on
    0:23:53 the
    0:23:54 road
    0:23:54 to
    0:23:54 a
    0:23:55 good
    0:23:55 career
    0:23:55 in
    0:23:56 China
    0:23:56 you
    0:23:56 had
    0:23:56 the
    0:23:57 civil
    0:23:57 service
    0:23:58 exam
    0:23:58 tradition
    0:23:59 so I
    0:23:59 think
    0:23:59 this
    0:24:00 kind
    0:24:00 of
    0:24:00 emphasis
    0:24:01 on
    0:24:02 education
    0:24:03 and
    0:24:03 on
    0:24:05 valuing
    0:24:05 of
    0:24:06 scholarly
    0:24:06 pursuits
    0:24:08 but
    0:24:09 then
    0:24:09 Chinese
    0:24:10 leaders
    0:24:10 throughout
    0:24:11 history
    0:24:12 including
    0:24:12 up to
    0:24:12 Mao
    0:24:13 and
    0:24:13 Xi Jinping
    0:24:13 have
    0:24:14 also
    0:24:14 found
    0:24:15 scholars
    0:24:16 to be
    0:24:17 tremendously
    0:24:18 difficult
    0:24:18 to
    0:24:18 control
    0:24:19 so there’s
    0:24:20 an ambivalence
    0:24:20 to it
    0:24:21 or contradiction
    0:24:21 again
    0:24:22 there
    0:24:23 but
    0:24:24 to
    0:24:24 which
    0:24:24 degree
    0:24:24 this
    0:24:25 idea
    0:24:25 of
    0:24:25 meritocracy
    0:24:26 that’s
    0:24:27 inherent
    0:24:27 to
    0:24:28 the
    0:24:29 notion
    0:24:29 that
    0:24:29 we’re
    0:24:30 all
    0:24:30 start
    0:24:30 at
    0:24:30 the
    0:24:31 same
    0:24:31 line
    0:24:33 there’s
    0:24:34 a
    0:24:34 meritocratic
    0:24:35 view
    0:24:36 of
    0:24:36 human
    0:24:37 nature
    0:24:37 there
    0:24:38 or
    0:24:38 if
    0:24:38 you
    0:24:38 work
    0:24:39 hard
    0:24:39 and
    0:24:39 you
    0:24:41 learn
    0:24:41 things
    0:24:42 you
    0:24:42 will
    0:24:43 succeed
    0:24:43 and
    0:24:43 so
    0:24:44 the
    0:24:44 reverse
    0:24:44 if
    0:24:44 you
    0:24:45 haven’t
    0:24:45 succeeded
    0:24:45 that
    0:24:46 means
    0:24:46 you
    0:24:46 didn’t
    0:24:46 work
    0:24:46 hard
    0:24:47 and
    0:24:47 afford
    0:24:47 to
    0:24:47 do
    0:24:48 not
    0:24:48 deserve
    0:24:48 the
    0:24:49 spoils
    0:24:49 of
    0:24:49 the
    0:24:50 success
    0:24:52 does
    0:24:52 that
    0:24:53 carry
    0:24:53 over
    0:24:53 to
    0:24:53 the
    0:24:53 China
    0:24:54 of
    0:24:54 today
    0:24:55 there’s
    0:24:55 such
    0:24:55 a
    0:24:55 challenge
    0:24:56 in
    0:24:56 all
    0:24:56 these
    0:24:56 forms
    0:24:56 of
    0:24:57 meritocracy
    0:24:57 because
    0:24:57 you
    0:24:57 know
    0:24:58 you
    0:24:58 had
    0:24:58 the
    0:24:58 civil
    0:24:59 serving
    0:24:59 exams
    0:25:00 but
    0:25:00 the
    0:25:01 question
    0:25:01 was
    0:25:01 who
    0:25:02 if
    0:25:02 you
    0:25:03 had
    0:25:03 a
    0:25:03 really
    0:25:03 good
    0:25:03 tutor
    0:25:04 if
    0:25:04 you
    0:25:04 could
    0:25:04 afford
    0:25:04 a
    0:25:04 really
    0:25:05 good
    0:25:05 tutor
    0:25:05 you
    0:25:05 had
    0:25:05 a
    0:25:05 better
    0:25:06 chance
    0:25:06 of
    0:25:06 passing
    0:25:06 the
    0:25:07 exams
    0:25:09 one
    0:25:09 thing
    0:25:09 that
    0:25:09 happened
    0:25:09 there
    0:25:10 was
    0:25:10 families
    0:25:11 would
    0:25:11 would
    0:25:12 pool
    0:25:12 together
    0:25:13 resources
    0:25:13 to
    0:25:14 try
    0:25:14 to
    0:25:15 help
    0:25:15 the
    0:25:16 brightest
    0:25:17 in
    0:25:17 their
    0:25:17 group
    0:25:18 to
    0:25:18 be
    0:25:19 able
    0:25:19 to
    0:25:19 become
    0:25:20 part
    0:25:20 of
    0:25:20 the
    0:25:21 officialdom
    0:25:21 and
    0:25:22 this
    0:25:23 kind
    0:25:23 of
    0:25:23 pooling
    0:25:23 together
    0:25:24 resources
    0:25:24 to
    0:25:25 help
    0:25:25 as
    0:25:25 a
    0:25:26 family
    0:25:26 was
    0:25:27 an
    0:25:27 important
    0:25:27 part
    0:25:27 of
    0:25:28 that
    0:25:28 structure
    0:25:29 but
    0:25:29 there
    0:25:29 also
    0:25:30 was
    0:25:30 a
    0:25:33 tension
    0:25:34 of
    0:25:34 that
    0:25:35 so
    0:25:35 what
    0:25:36 if
    0:25:36 you
    0:25:36 don’t
    0:25:36 succeed
    0:25:37 some
    0:25:37 of
    0:25:37 the
    0:25:38 leaders
    0:25:38 of
    0:25:39 rebellions
    0:25:39 against
    0:25:41 emperors
    0:25:41 were
    0:25:42 failed
    0:25:42 examination
    0:25:43 candidates
    0:25:46 you
    0:25:48 had
    0:25:48 this
    0:25:48 issue
    0:25:48 and
    0:25:48 then
    0:25:49 it
    0:25:49 became
    0:25:49 something
    0:25:50 well
    0:25:50 the
    0:25:51 system
    0:25:51 was
    0:25:51 out
    0:25:51 of
    0:25:52 whack
    0:25:52 and
    0:25:52 it
    0:25:52 needed
    0:25:53 a
    0:25:53 new
    0:25:54 leader
    0:25:55 and
    0:25:56 also
    0:25:56 there
    0:25:56 was
    0:25:57 something
    0:25:58 built
    0:25:58 in
    0:25:58 that
    0:25:59 was
    0:25:59 not
    0:25:59 so
    0:25:59 much
    0:26:00 Confucius
    0:26:00 himself
    0:26:00 but
    0:26:01 one
    0:26:01 of
    0:26:01 his
    0:26:02 main
    0:26:04 interpreters
    0:26:05 early
    0:26:05 interpreters
    0:26:06 Mencius
    0:26:07 had
    0:26:07 this
    0:26:07 idea
    0:26:08 which
    0:26:08 can
    0:26:08 be
    0:26:08 seen
    0:26:08 as
    0:26:09 a
    0:26:09 crude
    0:26:11 justification
    0:26:11 for
    0:26:12 rebellion
    0:26:12 or
    0:26:12 for
    0:26:13 a
    0:26:13 kind
    0:26:13 of
    0:26:13 democracy
    0:26:14 to
    0:26:14 say
    0:26:14 that
    0:26:15 even
    0:26:15 though
    0:26:15 the
    0:26:16 emperor
    0:26:17 rules
    0:26:18 at
    0:26:18 the
    0:26:19 will
    0:26:19 of
    0:26:19 heaven
    0:26:20 if
    0:26:22 he
    0:26:23 doesn’t
    0:26:23 act
    0:26:24 like
    0:26:24 a
    0:26:24 true
    0:26:24 emperor
    0:26:24 if
    0:26:24 he’s
    0:26:25 not
    0:26:25 morally
    0:26:26 upstanding
    0:26:27 then
    0:26:27 heaven
    0:26:27 will
    0:26:28 remove
    0:26:30 its
    0:26:31 mandate
    0:26:32 to
    0:26:32 him
    0:26:32 and
    0:26:33 then
    0:26:34 there’s
    0:26:34 no
    0:26:35 obligation
    0:26:35 to
    0:26:35 show
    0:26:36 deference
    0:26:36 for a
    0:26:37 ruler
    0:26:37 who’s
    0:26:37 not
    0:26:38 behaving
    0:26:38 like
    0:26:38 a
    0:26:38 true
    0:26:39 ruler
    0:26:39 and
    0:26:39 there
    0:26:40 it
    0:26:40 sort
    0:26:40 of
    0:26:40 justifies
    0:26:41 rebellion
    0:26:42 and
    0:26:42 the idea
    0:26:43 is that
    0:26:44 if
    0:26:45 the
    0:26:45 rebellion
    0:26:45 isn’t
    0:26:46 justified
    0:26:47 then
    0:26:47 heaven
    0:26:47 will
    0:26:48 stop
    0:26:49 the
    0:26:49 ruler
    0:26:49 from
    0:26:50 being
    0:26:50 killed
    0:26:50 but
    0:26:51 if
    0:26:51 heaven
    0:26:52 has
    0:26:52 removed
    0:26:53 his
    0:26:53 support
    0:26:54 then
    0:26:54 the
    0:26:54 rebellion
    0:26:55 will
    0:26:55 succeed
    0:26:55 and
    0:26:56 then
    0:26:56 a
    0:26:56 new
    0:26:58 ruler
    0:26:58 will
    0:26:58 be
    0:26:58 justified
    0:26:59 in
    0:26:59 taking
    0:27:00 power
    0:27:00 so
    0:27:01 it’s
    0:27:01 an
    0:27:02 interesting
    0:27:02 sense
    0:27:02 that
    0:27:03 the
    0:27:03 universe
    0:27:04 in
    0:27:04 this
    0:27:05 Confucian
    0:27:05 view
    0:27:06 has
    0:27:06 a
    0:27:06 kind
    0:27:06 of
    0:27:07 moral
    0:27:08 dimension
    0:27:08 to
    0:27:09 it
    0:27:09 but
    0:27:10 it
    0:27:10 also
    0:27:12 it’s
    0:27:12 when
    0:27:12 things
    0:27:12 actually
    0:27:13 happen
    0:27:13 that
    0:27:13 you
    0:27:14 see
    0:27:14 where
    0:27:14 the
    0:27:14 side
    0:27:15 of
    0:27:15 morality
    0:27:15 is
    0:27:16 okay
    0:27:16 so
    0:27:16 it’s
    0:27:17 meritocracy
    0:27:17 with
    0:27:17 an
    0:27:18 asterix
    0:27:19 it
    0:27:19 does
    0:27:19 seem
    0:27:19 to
    0:27:19 be
    0:27:20 the
    0:27:20 case
    0:27:20 maybe
    0:27:20 you
    0:27:20 can
    0:27:21 speak
    0:27:21 to
    0:27:21 that
    0:27:21 in
    0:27:21 the
    0:27:22 Chinese
    0:27:22 education
    0:27:23 system
    0:27:23 there
    0:27:23 seems
    0:27:23 to
    0:27:23 be
    0:27:23 a
    0:27:24 high
    0:27:24 value
    0:27:24 for
    0:27:25 excellence
    0:27:26 hopefully
    0:27:26 I’m
    0:27:27 not
    0:27:27 generalizing
    0:27:27 too
    0:27:27 much
    0:27:28 but
    0:27:28 from
    0:27:29 the
    0:27:29 things
    0:27:30 I’ve
    0:27:30 seen
    0:27:30 there
    0:27:31 are
    0:27:31 certain
    0:27:31 cultures
    0:27:32 certain
    0:27:32 peoples
    0:27:33 that
    0:27:34 you
    0:27:34 know
    0:27:35 it’s
    0:27:35 just
    0:27:36 part
    0:27:36 of
    0:27:36 the
    0:27:36 value
    0:27:37 system
    0:27:37 of
    0:27:37 the
    0:27:38 culture
    0:27:39 that
    0:27:39 you
    0:27:39 need
    0:27:39 to
    0:27:40 be
    0:27:40 a
    0:27:40 really
    0:27:40 good
    0:27:41 student
    0:27:42 is
    0:27:42 that
    0:27:42 the
    0:27:42 case
    0:27:42 with
    0:27:43 the
    0:27:43 China
    0:27:43 of
    0:27:43 today
    0:27:44 there’s
    0:27:44 been
    0:27:45 a lot
    0:27:45 of
    0:27:45 emphasis
    0:27:46 on
    0:27:47 education
    0:27:48 and
    0:27:48 sort
    0:27:48 of
    0:27:48 working
    0:27:49 really
    0:27:49 hard
    0:27:49 and
    0:27:50 excelling
    0:27:50 at
    0:27:51 some
    0:27:52 subjects
    0:27:52 and
    0:27:52 having
    0:27:54 you know
    0:27:55 there isn’t
    0:27:55 the
    0:27:55 civil
    0:27:55 service
    0:27:56 exam
    0:27:56 but
    0:27:56 there
    0:27:57 is
    0:27:58 the
    0:27:59 gaokao
    0:27:59 exam
    0:27:59 that
    0:28:00 really
    0:28:00 can
    0:28:00 determine
    0:28:01 where
    0:28:01 you
    0:28:02 get
    0:28:02 what
    0:28:02 kind
    0:28:03 of
    0:28:04 institution
    0:28:04 you
    0:28:04 get
    0:28:05 into
    0:28:06 and
    0:28:06 I
    0:28:07 think
    0:28:08 you
    0:28:08 know
    0:28:09 getting
    0:28:09 back
    0:28:09 to
    0:28:09 this
    0:28:10 idea
    0:28:10 of
    0:28:11 meritocracy
    0:28:11 which
    0:28:13 is
    0:28:13 strong
    0:28:14 in a lot
    0:28:14 of
    0:28:16 tradition
    0:28:17 it also
    0:28:18 a kind
    0:28:18 of
    0:28:19 what it
    0:28:19 opens
    0:28:19 you up
    0:28:20 to
    0:28:20 is
    0:28:20 when
    0:28:20 there
    0:28:21 is
    0:28:21 a
    0:28:22 sense
    0:28:23 of
    0:28:23 unfairness
    0:28:24 and
    0:28:24 who’s
    0:28:24 getting
    0:28:24 ahead
    0:28:25 and
    0:28:25 how
    0:28:25 the
    0:28:25 spoils
    0:28:25 are
    0:28:26 being
    0:28:26 divided
    0:28:27 this
    0:28:28 leads
    0:28:28 to
    0:28:28 a
    0:28:28 kind
    0:28:28 of
    0:28:29 outrage
    0:28:30 and
    0:28:30 some
    0:28:30 of
    0:28:31 the
    0:28:31 biggest
    0:28:31 protests
    0:28:32 in
    0:28:32 China
    0:28:33 have
    0:28:33 been
    0:28:33 about
    0:28:33 this
    0:28:34 sense
    0:28:34 of
    0:28:35 nepotism
    0:28:37 which
    0:28:37 really
    0:28:38 seems
    0:28:38 to
    0:28:38 subvert
    0:28:39 this
    0:28:39 whole
    0:28:42 idea
    0:28:42 of
    0:28:43 meritocracy
    0:28:44 and
    0:28:44 the
    0:28:45 1989
    0:28:46 protests
    0:28:46 at
    0:28:47 Tiananmen
    0:28:47 even
    0:28:47 though
    0:28:48 in the
    0:28:48 Western
    0:28:49 press
    0:28:49 in
    0:28:50 particular
    0:28:50 was
    0:28:51 discussed
    0:28:52 as a
    0:28:52 movement
    0:28:52 for
    0:28:53 democracy
    0:28:53 but
    0:28:53 a lot
    0:28:53 of
    0:28:54 the
    0:28:54 first
    0:28:54 posters
    0:28:55 that
    0:28:55 went
    0:28:55 up
    0:28:55 that
    0:28:55 got
    0:28:56 students
    0:28:56 really
    0:28:56 angry
    0:28:57 were
    0:28:57 criticisms
    0:28:58 of
    0:28:58 corruption
    0:28:58 within
    0:28:59 the
    0:28:59 communist
    0:28:59 party
    0:29:00 and
    0:29:00 nepotism
    0:29:01 and
    0:29:01 the
    0:29:02 sense
    0:29:02 that
    0:29:02 people
    0:29:04 despite
    0:29:04 all
    0:29:04 the
    0:29:05 talk
    0:29:05 I
    0:29:05 mean
    0:29:05 despite
    0:29:05 the
    0:29:06 fact
    0:29:06 that
    0:29:07 most
    0:29:07 people
    0:29:07 seem
    0:29:07 to be
    0:29:07 having
    0:29:08 to
    0:29:08 study
    0:29:08 really
    0:29:09 hard
    0:29:09 to pass
    0:29:09 these
    0:29:10 exams
    0:29:10 to get
    0:29:11 good
    0:29:12 positions
    0:29:12 in
    0:29:12 universities
    0:29:12 that
    0:29:13 some
    0:29:13 of
    0:29:13 them
    0:29:13 were
    0:29:13 being
    0:29:14 handed
    0:29:14 out
    0:29:14 via
    0:29:14 the
    0:29:15 back
    0:29:15 door
    0:29:16 and
    0:29:16 that
    0:29:16 led
    0:29:16 to
    0:29:17 a
    0:29:17 kind
    0:29:17 of
    0:29:17 outrage
    0:29:18 that
    0:29:18 that
    0:29:18 that
    0:29:18 is
    0:29:19 true
    0:29:19 in
    0:29:20 many
    0:29:21 places
    0:29:21 but
    0:29:21 I
    0:29:21 think
    0:29:21 it
    0:29:21 gives
    0:29:22 a
    0:29:22 special
    0:29:24 anger
    0:29:25 against
    0:29:25 nepotism
    0:29:26 because
    0:29:26 of
    0:29:26 that
    0:29:28 the
    0:29:28 way
    0:29:28 in
    0:29:28 which
    0:29:28 so
    0:29:29 much
    0:29:29 emphasis
    0:29:29 is
    0:29:30 put
    0:29:30 on
    0:29:30 the
    0:29:31 standard
    0:29:31 exam
    0:29:32 way
    0:29:32 of
    0:29:32 getting
    0:29:33 ahead
    0:29:33 I
    0:29:34 hope
    0:29:34 it’s
    0:29:34 okay
    0:29:34 if
    0:29:34 we
    0:29:35 jump
    0:29:35 around
    0:29:36 through
    0:29:36 history
    0:29:36 a
    0:29:36 bit
    0:29:37 and
    0:29:37 find
    0:29:38 the
    0:29:38 threads
    0:29:38 that
    0:29:38 connect
    0:29:39 everything
    0:29:39 since
    0:29:39 you
    0:29:39 mentioned
    0:29:40 Tiananmen
    0:29:40 Square
    0:29:42 you
    0:29:42 have
    0:29:42 studied
    0:29:43 a lot
    0:29:43 of
    0:29:43 student
    0:29:44 protests
    0:29:44 throughout
    0:29:44 Chinese
    0:29:45 history
    0:29:45 throughout
    0:29:46 history
    0:29:46 in
    0:29:46 general
    0:29:48 what
    0:29:48 happened
    0:29:48 in
    0:29:48 Tiananmen
    0:29:49 Square
    0:29:50 so
    0:29:51 in
    0:29:51 1989
    0:29:52 this
    0:29:52 massive
    0:29:53 movement
    0:29:53 took
    0:29:54 place
    0:29:54 the
    0:29:54 story
    0:29:55 of
    0:29:55 it
    0:29:55 largely
    0:29:56 suppressed
    0:29:57 within
    0:29:57 China
    0:29:57 and
    0:29:58 largely
    0:29:58 misunderstood
    0:29:59 in
    0:30:00 other
    0:30:00 places
    0:30:01 in part
    0:30:01 because
    0:30:01 it
    0:30:01 happened
    0:30:02 around
    0:30:02 the
    0:30:02 same
    0:30:03 time
    0:30:04 that
    0:30:04 communism
    0:30:05 was
    0:30:05 unraveling
    0:30:06 and
    0:30:06 ending
    0:30:06 in
    0:30:07 the
    0:30:07 former
    0:30:07 Soviet
    0:30:08 bloc
    0:30:08 so
    0:30:08 I
    0:30:08 think
    0:30:08 it’s
    0:30:09 often
    0:30:10 conflated
    0:30:10 with
    0:30:11 what
    0:30:11 was
    0:30:11 going
    0:30:11 on
    0:30:11 there
    0:30:13 and
    0:30:13 so
    0:30:14 I
    0:30:14 think
    0:30:14 one
    0:30:14 of
    0:30:14 the
    0:30:14 key
    0:30:15 things
    0:30:15 to
    0:30:15 know
    0:30:16 about
    0:30:16 the
    0:30:16 protests
    0:30:17 in
    0:30:17 1989
    0:30:17 was
    0:30:18 that
    0:30:18 they
    0:30:18 were
    0:30:19 an
    0:30:19 effort
    0:30:20 to
    0:30:20 get
    0:30:20 the
    0:30:21 communist
    0:30:21 party
    0:30:22 in
    0:30:22 China
    0:30:22 to
    0:30:23 do
    0:30:23 a
    0:30:23 better
    0:30:23 job
    0:30:24 of
    0:30:24 living
    0:30:24 up
    0:30:24 to
    0:30:24 its
    0:30:25 own
    0:30:25 stated
    0:30:26 ideals
    0:30:27 and
    0:30:27 to
    0:30:28 try
    0:30:28 to
    0:30:29 support
    0:30:30 the
    0:30:30 trend
    0:30:31 within
    0:30:31 the
    0:30:31 party
    0:30:32 toward
    0:30:32 a
    0:30:32 kind
    0:30:32 of
    0:30:34 liberalizing
    0:30:36 and
    0:30:37 opening
    0:30:37 up
    0:30:38 form
    0:30:39 that
    0:30:40 had
    0:30:40 taken
    0:30:41 shape
    0:30:41 after
    0:30:42 Mao’s
    0:30:42 death
    0:30:43 and
    0:30:43 in
    0:30:44 a
    0:30:44 sense
    0:30:45 the
    0:30:45 student
    0:30:46 generation
    0:30:47 of
    0:30:47 89
    0:30:48 and
    0:30:48 I
    0:30:48 was
    0:30:48 there
    0:30:48 in
    0:30:49 86
    0:30:49 when
    0:30:49 there
    0:30:49 were
    0:30:49 some
    0:30:49 sort
    0:30:50 of
    0:30:50 warm-up
    0:30:51 protests
    0:30:51 there
    0:30:51 was
    0:30:52 a
    0:30:52 kind
    0:30:52 of
    0:30:52 frustration
    0:30:53 with
    0:30:53 what
    0:30:53 they
    0:30:53 felt
    0:30:54 was
    0:30:55 a
    0:30:56 half-assed
    0:30:56 version
    0:30:57 of what
    0:30:58 they
    0:30:58 were
    0:30:58 talking
    0:30:59 about
    0:30:59 that
    0:30:59 the
    0:31:00 government
    0:31:00 was
    0:31:01 saying
    0:31:01 the
    0:31:01 party
    0:31:01 was
    0:31:02 saying
    0:31:02 we
    0:31:03 believe
    0:31:03 in
    0:31:04 reforming
    0:31:04 and
    0:31:04 opening
    0:31:05 up
    0:31:05 we
    0:31:05 need
    0:31:05 to
    0:31:06 liberalize
    0:31:07 we need
    0:31:07 to give
    0:31:07 people
    0:31:08 more
    0:31:09 more
    0:31:10 control
    0:31:10 of
    0:31:10 their
    0:31:11 fate
    0:31:11 and
    0:31:11 the
    0:31:12 students
    0:31:12 felt
    0:31:13 that
    0:31:14 this
    0:31:14 was
    0:31:14 being
    0:31:14 done
    0:31:16 more
    0:31:16 effectively
    0:31:17 in the
    0:31:17 economic
    0:31:17 realm
    0:31:18 than
    0:31:18 in
    0:31:18 the
    0:31:18 political
    0:31:19 realm
    0:31:20 and
    0:31:20 that
    0:31:20 there
    0:31:20 were
    0:31:21 a lot
    0:31:21 of
    0:31:21 sort
    0:31:21 of
    0:31:22 partial
    0:31:22 gestures
    0:31:23 that
    0:31:24 suggested
    0:31:26 the
    0:31:26 party
    0:31:26 needed to
    0:31:26 be
    0:31:27 pressed
    0:31:27 to
    0:31:27 really
    0:31:28 move
    0:31:28 in
    0:31:29 that
    0:31:29 direction
    0:31:29 and
    0:31:29 it
    0:31:30 will
    0:31:30 seem
    0:31:30 like
    0:31:30 a
    0:31:31 very
    0:31:31 trivial
    0:31:31 thing
    0:31:32 but
    0:31:32 I
    0:31:33 found
    0:31:33 it
    0:31:33 fascinating
    0:31:34 in
    0:31:34 86
    0:31:34 when
    0:31:34 I
    0:31:35 was
    0:31:35 there
    0:31:36 in
    0:31:36 Shanghai
    0:31:36 in
    0:31:37 late
    0:31:37 86
    0:31:39 and
    0:31:39 students
    0:31:40 protested
    0:31:40 and
    0:31:40 this
    0:31:40 was
    0:31:40 the
    0:31:40 first
    0:31:41 time
    0:31:42 that
    0:31:42 students
    0:31:43 had been
    0:31:43 really
    0:31:44 on the
    0:31:44 streets
    0:31:44 in
    0:31:45 significant
    0:31:45 numbers
    0:31:46 since
    0:31:46 the
    0:31:46 culture
    0:31:47 revolution
    0:31:47 or at
    0:31:48 least
    0:31:48 since
    0:31:48 76
    0:31:49 and
    0:31:50 the
    0:31:50 students
    0:31:50 were
    0:31:51 inspired
    0:31:51 by
    0:31:52 calls
    0:31:52 for
    0:31:53 democracy
    0:31:53 and
    0:31:53 discussions
    0:31:54 of
    0:31:54 democracy
    0:31:54 by
    0:31:55 this
    0:31:57 physicist
    0:31:57 Fang
    0:31:57 Li
    0:31:58 Juer
    0:31:58 who
    0:31:59 was
    0:31:59 a
    0:31:59 kind
    0:31:59 of
    0:32:01 Chinese
    0:32:02 Sakharov
    0:32:03 he
    0:32:03 was a
    0:32:04 liberalizing
    0:32:04 intellectual
    0:32:05 but
    0:32:06 one
    0:32:06 of
    0:32:06 the
    0:32:06 things
    0:32:06 that
    0:32:07 students
    0:32:07 in
    0:32:07 Shanghai
    0:32:08 which
    0:32:08 were
    0:32:09 some
    0:32:09 of
    0:32:09 the
    0:32:10 most
    0:32:10 intense
    0:32:11 protests
    0:32:11 of
    0:32:11 that
    0:32:11 year
    0:32:11 took
    0:32:12 place
    0:32:12 were
    0:32:13 frustrated
    0:32:13 about
    0:32:13 was
    0:32:13 a
    0:32:14 rock
    0:32:14 concert
    0:32:14 of
    0:32:15 all
    0:32:15 things
    0:32:16 that
    0:32:16 Jan
    0:32:17 and
    0:32:17 Dean
    0:32:18 the
    0:32:18 American
    0:32:19 surf
    0:32:19 rock
    0:32:20 band
    0:32:20 which
    0:32:20 was
    0:32:20 kind
    0:32:20 of
    0:32:21 like
    0:32:21 the
    0:32:21 beach
    0:32:21 boys
    0:32:21 only
    0:32:22 not
    0:32:22 as
    0:32:22 big
    0:32:22 and
    0:32:23 they
    0:32:23 were
    0:32:24 touring
    0:32:24 China
    0:32:24 it
    0:32:25 was
    0:32:25 the
    0:32:25 first
    0:32:25 time
    0:32:26 in
    0:32:26 Shanghai
    0:32:27 that
    0:32:27 there
    0:32:27 had
    0:32:27 been
    0:32:27 a
    0:32:27 rock
    0:32:28 concert
    0:32:28 and
    0:32:28 the
    0:32:28 students
    0:32:28 were
    0:32:29 really
    0:32:29 excited
    0:32:29 about
    0:32:30 this
    0:32:30 because
    0:32:30 this
    0:32:30 fit
    0:32:30 in
    0:32:31 with
    0:32:32 what
    0:32:32 they
    0:32:32 thought
    0:32:33 the
    0:32:33 communist
    0:32:33 party
    0:32:33 was
    0:32:34 moving
    0:32:34 toward
    0:32:34 was
    0:32:35 letting
    0:32:35 them
    0:32:36 be
    0:32:36 more
    0:32:36 part
    0:32:36 of
    0:32:36 the
    0:32:37 world
    0:32:37 and
    0:32:37 for
    0:32:38 them
    0:32:38 that
    0:32:38 meant
    0:32:38 being
    0:32:39 more
    0:32:39 in
    0:32:39 step
    0:32:39 with
    0:32:40 pop
    0:32:40 culture
    0:32:40 around
    0:32:41 the
    0:32:41 world
    0:32:42 and
    0:32:42 at
    0:32:42 the
    0:32:43 concert
    0:32:43 some
    0:32:43 students
    0:32:44 got
    0:32:44 up
    0:32:44 to
    0:32:44 dance
    0:32:45 because
    0:32:45 that’s
    0:32:54 a
    0:32:55 feint
    0:32:55 toward
    0:32:56 openness
    0:32:56 that
    0:32:56 really
    0:32:57 didn’t
    0:32:57 have
    0:32:57 follow
    0:32:57 through
    0:32:58 we’re
    0:32:58 going
    0:32:58 to
    0:32:58 give
    0:32:58 you
    0:32:59 rock
    0:32:59 concerts
    0:32:59 but
    0:32:59 not
    0:33:00 let
    0:33:00 you
    0:33:00 dance
    0:33:01 and
    0:33:02 so
    0:33:02 the
    0:33:02 protests
    0:33:03 went
    0:33:03 on
    0:33:03 for
    0:33:03 a
    0:33:03 little
    0:33:04 while
    0:33:04 in
    0:33:04 86
    0:33:05 and
    0:33:06 posters
    0:33:06 went
    0:33:07 up
    0:33:08 the
    0:33:08 officials
    0:33:09 at
    0:33:10 universities
    0:33:11 said
    0:33:11 no
    0:33:11 this
    0:33:11 is
    0:33:12 out
    0:33:12 of
    0:33:12 hand
    0:33:12 we
    0:33:13 had
    0:33:13 chaos
    0:33:14 on
    0:33:14 the
    0:33:14 streets
    0:33:14 during
    0:33:14 the
    0:33:15 culture
    0:33:15 revolution
    0:33:15 we
    0:33:15 can’t
    0:33:16 go
    0:33:16 back
    0:33:16 to
    0:33:16 that
    0:33:17 and
    0:33:17 nobody
    0:33:18 wanted
    0:33:18 to
    0:33:18 go
    0:33:18 back
    0:33:18 to
    0:33:24 and
    0:33:24 the
    0:33:25 students
    0:33:25 didn’t
    0:33:25 want
    0:33:25 to
    0:33:25 be
    0:33:25 associated
    0:33:26 with
    0:33:26 that
    0:33:26 so
    0:33:27 it
    0:33:27 wound
    0:33:27 down
    0:33:28 pretty
    0:33:28 quickly
    0:33:29 and
    0:33:30 they
    0:33:30 thought
    0:33:32 we’re
    0:33:32 not
    0:33:32 like
    0:33:32 the
    0:33:32 Red
    0:33:33 Guards
    0:33:33 we
    0:33:33 don’t
    0:33:33 want
    0:33:33 to
    0:33:33 make
    0:33:34 chaos
    0:33:34 we
    0:33:34 also
    0:33:34 are
    0:33:35 not
    0:33:35 fervent
    0:33:36 loyalists
    0:33:37 of
    0:33:37 anybody
    0:33:37 in
    0:33:37 power
    0:33:37 the
    0:33:38 Red
    0:33:38 Guards
    0:33:38 had
    0:33:38 been
    0:33:39 passionate
    0:33:39 about
    0:33:40 Mao
    0:33:40 the
    0:33:42 analogy
    0:33:42 partly
    0:33:43 sort
    0:33:43 of
    0:33:43 scared
    0:33:43 them
    0:33:44 and
    0:33:44 also
    0:33:44 it
    0:33:45 meant
    0:33:45 that
    0:33:45 the
    0:33:45 government
    0:33:45 was
    0:33:45 really
    0:33:46 serious
    0:33:46 about
    0:33:47 dealing
    0:33:47 with
    0:33:47 them
    0:33:48 so
    0:33:48 then
    0:33:48 in
    0:33:49 1989
    0:33:50 this
    0:33:50 protest
    0:33:51 restart
    0:33:53 and
    0:33:53 there
    0:33:53 are
    0:33:53 a
    0:33:53 variety
    0:33:54 of
    0:33:54 reasons
    0:33:54 why
    0:33:55 they
    0:33:55 can
    0:33:56 restart
    0:33:57 they
    0:33:58 the
    0:33:58 space
    0:33:58 for
    0:33:58 them
    0:33:59 students
    0:33:59 are
    0:34:00 thinking
    0:34:00 about
    0:34:00 doing
    0:34:01 something
    0:34:01 in
    0:34:01 1989
    0:34:02 it’s
    0:34:02 a
    0:34:02 very
    0:34:02 resonant
    0:34:03 year
    0:34:04 200th
    0:34:04 anniversary
    0:34:05 of the
    0:34:05 French
    0:34:06 revolution
    0:34:07 people
    0:34:07 are
    0:34:07 thinking
    0:34:07 about
    0:34:08 that
    0:34:08 but
    0:34:08 more
    0:34:09 importantly
    0:34:09 it’s
    0:34:09 the
    0:34:10 70th
    0:34:10 anniversary
    0:34:10 of the
    0:34:11 biggest
    0:34:11 student
    0:34:11 movement
    0:34:12 in
    0:34:12 Chinese
    0:34:12 history
    0:34:13 the
    0:34:13 May
    0:34:14 4th
    0:34:14 movement
    0:34:14 of
    0:34:15 1919
    0:34:16 and
    0:34:17 the
    0:34:17 May
    0:34:17 4th
    0:34:17 movement
    0:34:18 had
    0:34:18 helped
    0:34:18 lay
    0:34:18 the
    0:34:19 groundwork
    0:34:19 for
    0:34:19 the
    0:34:19 Chinese
    0:34:20 communist
    0:34:20 party
    0:34:21 some
    0:34:21 member
    0:34:22 leading
    0:34:22 founders
    0:34:22 of
    0:34:23 it
    0:34:23 had
    0:34:23 been
    0:34:24 student
    0:34:24 activists
    0:34:25 then
    0:34:25 it was
    0:34:25 an
    0:34:26 anti-imperialist
    0:34:27 movement
    0:34:27 but it
    0:34:27 was also
    0:34:29 a
    0:34:29 movement
    0:34:30 against
    0:34:30 bad
    0:34:30 government
    0:34:32 and so
    0:34:32 the
    0:34:32 students
    0:34:33 thought
    0:34:34 the
    0:34:34 anniversary
    0:34:35 of that
    0:34:36 movement
    0:34:36 was always
    0:34:37 marked
    0:34:38 commemorated
    0:34:38 in China
    0:34:39 and people
    0:34:39 took the
    0:34:40 history
    0:34:41 seriously
    0:34:42 people
    0:34:42 were reminded
    0:34:43 of what
    0:34:43 students
    0:34:44 did
    0:34:44 in the
    0:34:45 past
    0:34:45 and so
    0:34:46 there
    0:34:46 were sort
    0:34:47 of
    0:34:47 there were
    0:34:47 a lot
    0:34:47 of
    0:34:48 reasons
    0:34:48 why
    0:34:48 people
    0:34:49 were
    0:34:49 itching
    0:34:50 to do
    0:34:50 something
    0:34:51 and then
    0:34:53 a leader
    0:34:54 who
    0:34:56 was
    0:34:56 associated
    0:34:57 with the
    0:34:57 more
    0:34:58 kind of
    0:34:59 reformist
    0:34:59 more
    0:35:00 liberalizing
    0:35:02 group
    0:35:02 within the
    0:35:02 Chinese
    0:35:03 Communist Party
    0:35:04 he had
    0:35:04 been
    0:35:05 stripped of
    0:35:05 a very
    0:35:06 high office
    0:35:07 demoted
    0:35:08 after
    0:35:08 taking
    0:35:09 partly
    0:35:10 taking a
    0:35:11 fairly light
    0:35:11 stance
    0:35:12 toward the
    0:35:13 86-87
    0:35:13 protests
    0:35:14 and so
    0:35:14 he was
    0:35:15 still
    0:35:15 a member
    0:35:15 of the
    0:35:16 government
    0:35:17 but he
    0:35:17 was not
    0:35:17 as high
    0:35:18 up
    0:35:18 in power
    0:35:19 he had
    0:35:19 been
    0:35:19 very high
    0:35:19 up
    0:35:19 he had
    0:35:20 been
    0:35:20 sort of
    0:35:21 Deng Xiaoping’s
    0:35:21 potential
    0:35:22 successor
    0:35:23 and he
    0:35:24 dies
    0:35:25 unexpectedly
    0:35:26 and there
    0:35:26 has to be
    0:35:27 a funeral
    0:35:27 for him
    0:35:28 because he
    0:35:28 dies
    0:35:28 still as
    0:35:29 an
    0:35:29 official
    0:35:30 and the
    0:35:31 students
    0:35:31 take
    0:35:32 advantage
    0:35:32 of the
    0:35:33 opening
    0:35:33 of their
    0:35:33 having to
    0:35:34 be
    0:35:37 commemorations
    0:35:37 of his
    0:35:37 death
    0:35:38 and they
    0:35:39 put up
    0:35:39 posters
    0:35:39 that
    0:35:40 basically
    0:35:40 say
    0:35:40 the
    0:35:40 wrong
    0:35:41 people
    0:35:41 are
    0:35:41 dying
    0:35:42 who
    0:35:42 Yabong
    0:35:42 was
    0:35:43 younger
    0:35:44 than some
    0:35:44 of the
    0:35:44 more
    0:35:45 conservative
    0:35:45 members
    0:35:46 they said
    0:35:46 so
    0:35:47 some
    0:35:47 people
    0:35:47 are
    0:35:47 dying
    0:35:48 too
    0:35:48 young
    0:35:48 some
    0:35:48 people
    0:35:50 don’t
    0:35:50 seem
    0:35:50 like
    0:35:50 they’re
    0:35:51 ever
    0:35:51 going
    0:35:51 to
    0:35:51 die
    0:35:52 and
    0:35:52 they
    0:35:53 so
    0:35:53 they
    0:35:54 begin
    0:35:54 these
    0:35:54 sorts
    0:35:54 of
    0:35:55 protests
    0:35:55 this
    0:35:55 is
    0:35:55 in
    0:35:55 April
    0:35:56 of
    0:35:56 89
    0:35:57 and
    0:35:57 the
    0:35:58 government
    0:35:58 tries
    0:35:59 to
    0:35:59 sort
    0:35:59 of
    0:35:59 get
    0:35:59 the
    0:36:00 protest
    0:36:00 to
    0:36:00 stop
    0:36:01 quickly
    0:36:01 and
    0:36:01 they
    0:36:02 use
    0:36:02 the
    0:36:02 same
    0:36:03 technique
    0:36:03 of
    0:36:04 they
    0:36:09 which
    0:36:10 is
    0:36:10 a
    0:36:10 code
    0:36:10 term
    0:36:10 for
    0:36:11 taking
    0:36:11 us
    0:36:11 back
    0:36:11 to
    0:36:11 the
    0:36:11 cultural
    0:36:12 revolution
    0:36:13 and
    0:36:13 this
    0:36:13 time
    0:36:13 the
    0:36:13 students
    0:36:14 say
    0:36:14 no
    0:36:14 we’re
    0:36:15 just
    0:36:15 trying
    0:36:15 to
    0:36:15 show
    0:36:15 our
    0:36:16 patriotism
    0:36:17 we
    0:36:17 believe
    0:36:18 that
    0:36:19 there’s
    0:36:19 too
    0:36:19 much
    0:36:20 corruption
    0:36:20 and
    0:36:21 nepotism
    0:36:22 there’s
    0:36:22 not
    0:36:23 enough
    0:36:23 support
    0:36:24 for
    0:36:24 the
    0:36:24 more
    0:36:25 liberalizing
    0:36:27 wing
    0:36:27 within
    0:36:27 the
    0:36:27 party
    0:36:28 and
    0:36:28 so
    0:36:28 they
    0:36:29 keep
    0:36:29 up
    0:36:29 the
    0:36:30 protests
    0:36:31 and
    0:36:31 there’s
    0:36:31 a lot
    0:36:31 of
    0:36:32 frustration
    0:36:32 at
    0:36:32 this
    0:36:32 point
    0:36:32 there
    0:36:32 are
    0:36:33 also
    0:36:33 economic
    0:36:34 frustrations
    0:36:34 at
    0:36:34 this
    0:36:39 but
    0:36:40 it
    0:36:40 seems
    0:36:40 that
    0:36:40 people
    0:36:41 with
    0:36:41 good
    0:36:42 government
    0:36:42 connections
    0:36:43 are
    0:36:43 getting
    0:36:44 rich
    0:36:45 too
    0:36:45 easily
    0:36:46 and
    0:36:46 so
    0:36:46 there’s
    0:36:47 sort
    0:36:47 of
    0:36:47 a
    0:36:47 sense
    0:36:47 of
    0:36:48 unfairness
    0:36:49 the
    0:36:49 students
    0:36:49 are
    0:36:49 also
    0:36:50 really
    0:36:50 frustrated
    0:36:51 by
    0:36:51 the
    0:36:51 kind
    0:36:51 of
    0:36:51 macro
    0:36:52 managing
    0:36:52 of
    0:36:52 their
    0:36:53 private
    0:36:53 lives
    0:36:53 on
    0:36:54 campuses
    0:36:54 so
    0:36:55 the
    0:36:56 protests
    0:36:56 at
    0:36:56 Tiananmen
    0:36:57 Square
    0:36:57 and
    0:36:57 in
    0:36:58 plazas
    0:36:58 all
    0:36:59 around
    0:36:59 the
    0:36:59 country
    0:37:00 and
    0:37:00 other
    0:37:00 cities
    0:37:00 as
    0:37:01 well
    0:37:02 become
    0:37:02 this
    0:37:02 mix
    0:37:02 of
    0:37:03 things
    0:37:03 it’s
    0:37:03 an
    0:37:03 anti
    0:37:04 corruption
    0:37:04 movement
    0:37:05 it’s
    0:37:05 a
    0:37:05 call
    0:37:05 for
    0:37:06 more
    0:37:06 democracy
    0:37:06 movement
    0:37:07 it’s
    0:37:07 a
    0:37:07 call
    0:37:07 for
    0:37:07 more
    0:37:07 freedom
    0:37:08 of
    0:37:08 speech
    0:37:08 movement
    0:37:09 but
    0:37:09 it’s
    0:37:09 also
    0:37:09 a
    0:37:10 kind
    0:37:11 of
    0:37:11 has
    0:37:12 some
    0:37:12 counterculture
    0:37:13 elements
    0:37:13 that
    0:37:13 are
    0:37:14 like
    0:37:14 there
    0:37:14 are
    0:37:15 rock
    0:37:15 concerts
    0:37:15 on
    0:37:15 the
    0:37:16 square
    0:37:17 the
    0:37:17 most
    0:37:17 popular
    0:37:18 rock
    0:37:19 musician
    0:37:20 comes
    0:37:20 to
    0:37:20 the
    0:37:21 square
    0:37:21 and
    0:37:21 is
    0:37:23 celebrated
    0:37:23 when
    0:37:23 he’s
    0:37:23 there
    0:37:23 there
    0:37:24 there’s
    0:37:24 a
    0:37:24 sense
    0:37:24 of
    0:37:25 kind
    0:37:25 of
    0:37:25 a
    0:37:26 variety
    0:37:26 of
    0:37:26 things
    0:37:27 rolled
    0:37:27 into
    0:37:27 one
    0:37:29 and
    0:37:30 I
    0:37:30 brought
    0:37:30 up
    0:37:30 how
    0:37:31 it
    0:37:31 sort
    0:37:31 of
    0:37:31 gets
    0:37:32 conflated
    0:37:32 with
    0:37:32 the
    0:37:33 movements
    0:37:33 to
    0:37:33 overthrow
    0:37:34 communism
    0:37:34 and
    0:37:34 the
    0:37:35 Eastern
    0:37:35 Bloc
    0:37:36 it
    0:37:36 was
    0:37:36 actually
    0:37:36 in
    0:37:37 many
    0:37:37 ways
    0:37:37 I
    0:37:37 think
    0:37:38 more
    0:37:38 like
    0:37:38 something
    0:37:38 that
    0:37:39 happened
    0:37:39 in
    0:37:39 the
    0:37:39 Eastern
    0:37:39 Bloc
    0:37:40 20
    0:37:41 years
    0:37:41 earlier
    0:37:41 it
    0:37:41 was
    0:37:42 more
    0:37:42 like
    0:37:42 Prague
    0:37:43 Spring
    0:37:43 and
    0:37:44 other
    0:37:44 1968
    0:37:45 protests
    0:37:45 in
    0:37:46 the
    0:37:46 Communist
    0:37:46 Bloc
    0:37:46 which
    0:37:47 was
    0:37:47 about
    0:37:48 moving
    0:37:49 toward
    0:37:50 socialism
    0:37:50 with
    0:37:50 a
    0:37:51 human
    0:37:51 face
    0:37:51 more
    0:37:52 like
    0:37:52 trying
    0:37:52 to
    0:37:53 get
    0:37:54 the
    0:37:54 parties
    0:37:54 to
    0:37:55 empower
    0:37:55 to
    0:37:56 reform
    0:37:56 rather
    0:37:56 than
    0:37:57 necessarily
    0:37:58 doing
    0:38:21 the
    0:38:22 Communist
    0:38:22 Party
    0:38:22 leadership
    0:38:23 and
    0:38:23 clearly
    0:38:24 the
    0:38:25 people
    0:38:25 who
    0:38:25 are
    0:38:25 more
    0:38:26 political
    0:38:26 conservatives
    0:38:28 even
    0:38:28 if
    0:38:28 they
    0:38:28 believe
    0:38:28 in
    0:38:29 economic
    0:38:29 reform
    0:38:30 are
    0:38:31 clearly
    0:38:31 getting
    0:38:31 the
    0:38:31 upper
    0:38:32 hand
    0:38:32 and
    0:38:33 this
    0:38:33 is
    0:38:33 not
    0:38:33 going
    0:38:33 to
    0:38:33 be
    0:38:34 tolerated
    0:38:35 and
    0:38:35 the
    0:38:36 students
    0:38:36 stay
    0:38:36 on
    0:38:37 the
    0:38:37 square
    0:38:37 when
    0:38:38 signals
    0:38:39 are
    0:38:39 given
    0:38:39 to
    0:38:39 try
    0:38:40 to
    0:38:40 get
    0:38:40 them
    0:38:41 out
    0:38:41 students
    0:38:41 from
    0:38:42 around
    0:38:42 the
    0:38:42 country
    0:38:42 are
    0:38:42 pouring
    0:38:43 into
    0:38:44 Beijing
    0:38:44 to
    0:38:44 join
    0:38:45 this
    0:38:45 movement
    0:38:46 they
    0:38:46 don’t
    0:38:46 want
    0:38:46 to
    0:38:47 end
    0:38:47 the
    0:38:47 movement
    0:38:47 when
    0:38:47 they’ve
    0:38:48 just
    0:38:48 arrived
    0:38:48 so
    0:38:49 it’s
    0:38:49 actually
    0:38:49 one
    0:38:49 thing
    0:38:49 that
    0:38:50 keeps
    0:38:50 it
    0:38:50 going
    0:38:50 is
    0:38:51 new
    0:38:53 participants
    0:38:53 are
    0:38:53 coming
    0:38:53 from
    0:38:53 the
    0:38:54 provinces
    0:38:54 and
    0:38:55 even
    0:39:01 start
    0:39:01 joining
    0:39:02 in
    0:39:02 the
    0:39:02 movement
    0:39:02 as
    0:39:03 well
    0:39:03 and
    0:39:03 form
    0:39:04 an
    0:39:04 independent
    0:39:05 labor
    0:39:05 union
    0:39:06 and
    0:39:06 that
    0:39:07 really
    0:39:08 the
    0:39:09 Chinese
    0:39:09 Communist
    0:39:09 Party
    0:39:10 to a
    0:39:10 certain
    0:39:10 extent
    0:39:11 they might
    0:39:11 put up
    0:39:12 with
    0:39:12 student
    0:39:13 protesters
    0:39:13 but
    0:39:13 they
    0:39:14 know
    0:39:14 from
    0:39:14 past
    0:39:15 experience
    0:39:16 that
    0:39:16 sometimes
    0:39:16 student
    0:39:17 protests
    0:39:17 lead
    0:39:18 to
    0:39:19 members
    0:39:19 of
    0:39:19 other
    0:39:19 social
    0:39:20 classes
    0:39:21 joining
    0:39:21 them
    0:39:21 because
    0:39:21 they
    0:39:21 look
    0:39:22 up
    0:39:22 to
    0:39:22 students
    0:39:23 as
    0:39:24 potential
    0:39:25 intellectual
    0:39:25 leaders
    0:39:26 of the
    0:39:26 country
    0:39:26 and
    0:39:27 admiration
    0:39:27 for
    0:39:28 scholars
    0:39:28 is
    0:39:29 part
    0:39:29 of
    0:39:29 this
    0:39:29 that
    0:39:30 people
    0:39:31 turn
    0:39:31 out
    0:39:31 when
    0:39:31 students
    0:39:32 protest
    0:39:32 something
    0:39:33 very
    0:39:33 different
    0:39:33 from
    0:39:34 the
    0:39:34 American
    0:39:34 case
    0:39:34 where
    0:39:35 there’s
    0:39:35 a
    0:39:35 kind
    0:39:35 of
    0:39:36 often
    0:39:37 suspicion
    0:39:37 of
    0:39:38 student
    0:39:39 activists
    0:39:40 being
    0:39:41 necessarily
    0:39:41 on the
    0:39:41 same
    0:39:41 side
    0:39:42 as
    0:39:43 everybody
    0:39:43 else
    0:39:44 but
    0:39:44 in
    0:39:44 China
    0:39:45 there
    0:39:45 had
    0:39:45 been
    0:39:46 from
    0:39:46 the
    0:39:46 history
    0:39:46 of
    0:39:47 the
    0:39:47 20th
    0:39:47 century
    0:39:48 a
    0:39:48 sense
    0:39:48 of
    0:39:50 students
    0:39:50 as
    0:39:50 potentially
    0:39:50 a
    0:39:51 vanguard
    0:39:52 so
    0:39:52 once
    0:39:53 there
    0:39:53 are
    0:39:54 labor
    0:39:54 activists
    0:39:55 joining
    0:39:55 the
    0:39:55 movement
    0:39:55 then
    0:39:56 troops
    0:39:56 are
    0:39:56 called
    0:39:57 in
    0:39:57 and
    0:39:57 there’s
    0:39:58 a
    0:39:58 massacre
    0:39:59 near
    0:39:59 Tiananmen
    0:39:59 Square
    0:40:02 on the
    0:40:03 middle
    0:40:03 of the
    0:40:03 night
    0:40:04 June
    0:40:04 3rd
    0:40:04 and
    0:40:05 early
    0:40:06 June
    0:40:06 4th
    0:40:07 and
    0:40:08 the
    0:40:09 army
    0:40:09 just
    0:40:09 moves
    0:40:10 in
    0:40:11 and
    0:40:12 begins
    0:40:12 behaving
    0:40:13 very much
    0:40:13 like
    0:40:13 an
    0:40:14 army
    0:40:14 of
    0:40:14 occupation
    0:40:15 which
    0:40:15 is
    0:40:15 something
    0:40:16 the
    0:40:16 people’s
    0:40:16 civilization
    0:40:17 army
    0:40:17 is
    0:40:18 supposed
    0:40:18 to be
    0:40:18 the one
    0:40:19 that saves
    0:40:20 China
    0:40:20 from foreign
    0:40:21 aggression
    0:40:21 and they’re
    0:40:22 acting like
    0:40:23 an invading
    0:40:24 force
    0:40:24 so
    0:40:24 so
    0:40:24 so
    0:40:24 so
    0:40:24 this
    0:40:24 is
    0:40:24 where
    0:40:25 famously
    0:40:25 the
    0:40:25 tanks
    0:40:26 rolling
    0:40:26 the
    0:40:27 tanks
    0:40:27 roll
    0:40:27 in
    0:40:27 and I
    0:40:28 think
    0:40:28 also
    0:40:29 you have
    0:40:30 that
    0:40:30 famous
    0:40:30 image
    0:40:31 of the
    0:40:31 man
    0:40:31 standing
    0:40:32 in front
    0:40:32 of the
    0:40:32 tank
    0:40:33 that’s
    0:40:33 a
    0:40:33 band
    0:40:34 image
    0:40:34 within
    0:40:34 China
    0:40:34 and I
    0:40:35 really
    0:40:35 think
    0:40:36 the
    0:40:37 reason
    0:40:37 why
    0:40:37 it’s
    0:40:37 so
    0:40:38 considered
    0:40:38 so
    0:40:39 toxic
    0:40:39 by
    0:40:39 the
    0:40:40 regime
    0:40:40 is
    0:40:41 because
    0:40:41 it
    0:40:41 just
    0:40:42 shows
    0:40:42 the
    0:40:42 people’s
    0:40:43 liberation
    0:40:43 army
    0:40:44 looking
    0:40:44 like
    0:40:44 an
    0:40:45 invading
    0:40:45 force
    0:40:46 not
    0:40:46 like
    0:40:47 a
    0:40:48 stabilizing
    0:40:48 force
    0:40:49 can we
    0:40:49 talk
    0:40:49 about
    0:40:50 that
    0:40:50 who’s
    0:40:50 now
    0:40:51 called
    0:40:51 the
    0:40:51 tank
    0:40:52 man
    0:40:52 the
    0:40:52 man
    0:40:53 that
    0:40:53 stood
    0:40:54 in
    0:40:54 front
    0:40:54 of
    0:40:54 the
    0:40:54 row
    0:40:54 of
    0:40:55 tanks
    0:40:55 this
    0:40:55 was
    0:40:56 on
    0:40:56 June
    0:40:57 5th
    0:40:57 in
    0:40:57 Tiananmen
    0:40:58 Square
    0:40:59 what do
    0:40:59 we know
    0:41:00 about him
    0:41:00 what do
    0:41:00 you think
    0:41:01 about him
    0:41:02 the
    0:41:02 symbolism
    0:41:03 it’s
    0:41:03 an
    0:41:04 amazing
    0:41:05 symbol
    0:41:05 you know
    0:41:06 he’s
    0:41:06 on this
    0:41:07 boulevard
    0:41:07 near
    0:41:07 the
    0:41:08 square
    0:41:08 with
    0:41:08 this
    0:41:09 long
    0:41:09 line
    0:41:09 of
    0:41:10 tanks
    0:41:10 and
    0:41:11 it’s
    0:41:11 unquestionably
    0:41:12 this act
    0:41:12 of
    0:41:13 incredible
    0:41:13 bravery
    0:41:14 and
    0:41:15 there’s
    0:41:15 some
    0:41:15 interesting
    0:41:16 things
    0:41:16 about
    0:41:16 it
    0:41:16 some
    0:41:16 that
    0:41:16 are
    0:41:17 forgotten
    0:41:17 one
    0:41:17 is
    0:41:17 that
    0:41:18 in
    0:41:18 the
    0:41:19 end
    0:41:19 he
    0:41:19 climbs
    0:41:19 up
    0:41:20 on
    0:41:20 the
    0:41:20 tank
    0:41:21 and
    0:41:22 the
    0:41:22 tank
    0:41:22 swerves
    0:41:23 you know
    0:41:23 it doesn’t
    0:41:23 run
    0:41:23 him
    0:41:24 over
    0:41:25 and
    0:41:25 the
    0:41:25 Chinese
    0:41:25 Communist
    0:41:26 Party
    0:41:26 initially
    0:41:27 showed
    0:41:27 video
    0:41:27 of
    0:41:28 this
    0:41:28 and
    0:41:28 said
    0:41:29 look
    0:41:29 the
    0:41:29 Western
    0:41:30 press
    0:41:30 is
    0:41:30 talking
    0:41:30 about
    0:41:31 how
    0:41:31 vicious
    0:41:31 we
    0:41:31 were
    0:41:31 but
    0:41:32 look
    0:41:32 at
    0:41:32 the
    0:41:32 restraint
    0:41:33 look
    0:41:33 at
    0:41:34 this
    0:41:34 he
    0:41:34 wasn’t
    0:41:35 mowed
    0:41:35 down
    0:41:36 and
    0:41:36 they
    0:41:36 tried
    0:41:37 this
    0:41:37 whole
    0:41:37 story
    0:41:37 with
    0:41:38 Tiananmen
    0:41:38 initially
    0:41:38 of
    0:41:38 saying
    0:41:39 look
    0:41:40 the
    0:41:40 students
    0:41:40 were
    0:41:40 out
    0:41:40 of
    0:41:41 control
    0:41:41 this
    0:41:42 everybody
    0:41:42 should
    0:41:42 remember
    0:41:43 what
    0:41:43 happened
    0:41:43 during
    0:41:43 the
    0:41:43 Cultural
    0:41:44 Revolution
    0:41:44 and
    0:41:45 the
    0:41:46 army
    0:41:47 showed
    0:41:47 restraint
    0:41:48 and
    0:41:48 there
    0:41:48 were
    0:41:48 a
    0:41:50 small
    0:41:50 number
    0:41:50 of
    0:41:50 soldiers
    0:41:51 who
    0:41:51 were
    0:41:51 actually
    0:41:51 burned
    0:41:52 alive
    0:41:52 in
    0:41:52 their
    0:41:53 tanks
    0:41:53 during
    0:41:55 once
    0:41:55 the
    0:41:55 massacre
    0:41:56 began
    0:41:57 people
    0:41:57 got
    0:41:58 outraged
    0:41:58 and
    0:41:58 they
    0:41:59 attacked
    0:41:59 the
    0:42:00 soldiers
    0:42:00 but
    0:42:01 by
    0:42:01 selective
    0:42:02 use
    0:42:02 of
    0:42:03 footage
    0:42:04 the
    0:42:04 Communist
    0:42:05 Party
    0:42:05 could
    0:42:05 say
    0:42:05 look
    0:42:06 actually
    0:42:06 look at
    0:42:07 this
    0:42:07 that
    0:42:07 the
    0:42:08 heroes
    0:42:08 the
    0:42:08 martyrs
    0:42:08 were
    0:42:09 these
    0:42:09 soldiers
    0:42:11 and
    0:42:11 they
    0:42:11 try
    0:42:12 for
    0:42:12 the
    0:42:12 first
    0:42:13 months
    0:42:14 after
    0:42:14 it
    0:42:14 to
    0:42:15 try
    0:42:15 to
    0:42:15 get
    0:42:15 this
    0:42:16 narrative
    0:42:16 to
    0:42:16 stick
    0:42:17 they
    0:42:17 talk
    0:42:17 about
    0:42:17 Tiananmen
    0:42:18 a lot
    0:42:18 they
    0:42:18 talk
    0:42:19 about
    0:42:19 these
    0:42:19 things
    0:42:19 they
    0:42:19 show
    0:42:20 images
    0:42:20 of
    0:42:20 the
    0:42:20 tank
    0:42:20 man
    0:42:21 the
    0:42:22 problem
    0:42:22 with
    0:42:22 it
    0:42:22 is
    0:42:22 that
    0:42:23 lots
    0:42:23 and
    0:42:23 lots
    0:42:23 of
    0:42:23 people
    0:42:24 around
    0:42:24 Beijing
    0:42:24 had
    0:42:25 seen
    0:42:25 what
    0:42:26 happened
    0:42:26 and
    0:42:26 knew
    0:42:27 that
    0:42:27 in
    0:42:27 fact
    0:42:27 there
    0:42:28 first
    0:42:28 been
    0:42:28 the
    0:42:29 firing
    0:42:29 on
    0:42:29 unarmed
    0:42:30 civilians
    0:42:30 with
    0:42:31 automatic
    0:42:31 weapons
    0:42:32 and
    0:42:33 there
    0:42:34 had
    0:42:34 been
    0:42:34 many
    0:42:34 many
    0:42:35 people
    0:42:36 some
    0:42:37 students
    0:42:37 but a lot
    0:42:37 of
    0:42:38 ordinary
    0:42:38 Beijing
    0:42:39 residents
    0:42:40 and workers
    0:42:41 who were
    0:42:41 just
    0:42:41 mowing
    0:42:41 down
    0:42:42 so
    0:42:42 lots
    0:42:42 of
    0:42:42 people
    0:42:43 knew
    0:42:43 somebody
    0:42:44 who
    0:42:44 had
    0:42:44 been
    0:42:44 killed
    0:42:45 so
    0:42:45 that
    0:42:45 story
    0:42:45 just
    0:42:46 didn’t
    0:42:46 work
    0:42:47 and
    0:42:47 then
    0:42:48 I
    0:42:48 think
    0:42:50 the
    0:42:51 claim
    0:42:51 had to
    0:42:52 be
    0:42:52 made
    0:42:52 to
    0:42:52 try
    0:42:53 to
    0:42:54 suppress
    0:42:55 discussion
    0:42:55 of
    0:42:55 the
    0:42:55 event
    0:42:56 and
    0:42:57 particularly
    0:42:57 to
    0:42:59 repress
    0:42:59 that
    0:42:59 visual
    0:43:00 imagery
    0:43:01 that
    0:43:01 was
    0:43:02 that
    0:43:02 image
    0:43:02 of
    0:43:02 the
    0:43:02 man
    0:43:02 in
    0:43:03 front
    0:43:03 of
    0:43:03 the
    0:43:03 line
    0:43:03 of
    0:43:04 tanks
    0:43:04 whatever
    0:43:05 the
    0:43:05 tanks
    0:43:05 did
    0:43:05 do
    0:43:05 him
    0:43:06 or
    0:43:06 not
    0:43:07 the
    0:43:07 main
    0:43:08 takeaway
    0:43:08 from
    0:43:09 it
    0:43:09 would
    0:43:10 be
    0:43:10 this
    0:43:10 idea
    0:43:11 that
    0:43:11 there
    0:43:11 were
    0:43:11 lines
    0:43:12 of
    0:43:12 tanks
    0:43:12 in
    0:43:13 a
    0:43:13 city
    0:43:14 that
    0:43:15 the
    0:43:17 image
    0:43:17 was
    0:43:17 of
    0:43:17 the
    0:43:17 government
    0:43:18 as
    0:43:18 having
    0:43:19 lost
    0:43:19 the
    0:43:19 mandate
    0:43:20 to
    0:43:20 rule
    0:43:21 and
    0:43:21 they
    0:43:21 really
    0:43:22 didn’t
    0:43:22 want
    0:43:22 to
    0:43:22 have
    0:43:22 that
    0:43:23 image
    0:43:24 out
    0:43:24 there
    0:43:24 in
    0:43:24 the
    0:43:25 world
    0:43:27 yeah
    0:43:27 we’re
    0:43:27 watching
    0:43:27 the
    0:43:28 video
    0:43:28 now
    0:43:30 he’s
    0:43:30 got
    0:43:30 what
    0:43:31 like
    0:43:32 grocery
    0:43:32 bags
    0:43:32 in his
    0:43:33 hands
    0:43:33 it’s
    0:43:34 such
    0:43:34 a
    0:43:35 symbolic
    0:43:36 I’ve
    0:43:36 had
    0:43:36 enough
    0:43:38 like
    0:43:39 that
    0:43:39 kind
    0:43:39 of
    0:43:39 statement
    0:43:40 yeah
    0:43:40 and he’s
    0:43:41 probably
    0:43:41 not a
    0:43:41 student
    0:43:42 you know
    0:43:42 it’s
    0:43:42 often
    0:43:42 described
    0:43:43 as a
    0:43:43 student
    0:43:43 but he
    0:43:44 probably
    0:43:44 was
    0:43:46 a
    0:43:46 worker
    0:43:46 and
    0:43:46 it
    0:43:47 is
    0:43:47 it
    0:43:47 is
    0:43:47 a
    0:43:48 powerful
    0:43:48 image
    0:43:49 of
    0:43:49 bravery
    0:43:51 and
    0:43:51 you know
    0:43:52 I brought
    0:43:52 up the
    0:43:53 1968
    0:43:54 parallel
    0:43:54 for
    0:43:55 eastern
    0:43:55 and central
    0:43:55 Europe
    0:43:56 there was
    0:43:56 actually
    0:43:56 a very
    0:43:57 powerful
    0:43:57 photograph
    0:43:58 of a
    0:43:59 man
    0:43:59 bearing
    0:43:59 his
    0:44:00 chest
    0:44:00 in front
    0:44:01 of a
    0:44:01 tank
    0:44:02 in
    0:44:02 Bratislava
    0:44:03 during
    0:44:04 what we think
    0:44:05 of as
    0:44:05 Prague
    0:44:05 spring
    0:44:06 that was
    0:44:06 a
    0:44:07 famous
    0:44:07 image
    0:44:08 of
    0:44:09 bravery
    0:44:09 against
    0:44:10 tanks
    0:44:10 and
    0:44:11 in
    0:44:12 1968
    0:44:13 in
    0:44:14 Czechoslovakia
    0:44:15 then still
    0:44:16 Czechoslovakia
    0:44:17 the tanks
    0:44:17 that rolled
    0:44:17 in were
    0:44:18 Soviet
    0:44:19 tanks
    0:44:19 sent
    0:44:19 down
    0:44:20 there
    0:44:21 and so
    0:44:22 not that
    0:44:23 people
    0:44:23 would
    0:44:23 know
    0:44:24 but that
    0:44:24 was an
    0:44:25 image
    0:44:25 you know
    0:44:26 what was
    0:44:26 so
    0:44:27 powerful
    0:44:27 and that
    0:44:28 was saying
    0:44:28 we’re not
    0:44:28 going to
    0:44:29 put up
    0:44:29 with this
    0:44:29 invasion
    0:44:30 again I
    0:44:31 think you
    0:44:31 have the
    0:44:31 people’s
    0:44:32 liberation
    0:44:32 army
    0:44:34 looking
    0:44:34 like an
    0:44:35 invading
    0:44:35 force
    0:44:36 and that’s
    0:44:36 what
    0:44:38 the Chinese
    0:44:39 Communist Party
    0:44:39 in a sense
    0:44:40 can’t
    0:44:42 deal with
    0:44:42 now
    0:44:43 even though
    0:44:44 sometimes
    0:44:44 they could
    0:44:45 tell a
    0:44:45 story about
    0:44:46 1989
    0:44:48 and they do
    0:44:48 tell a
    0:44:48 version of
    0:44:49 this
    0:44:49 and some
    0:44:50 people
    0:44:50 believe this
    0:44:51 I think
    0:44:52 is that
    0:44:53 in 1989
    0:44:54 China
    0:44:55 went one
    0:44:55 route
    0:44:56 of not
    0:44:58 having the
    0:44:58 Communist Party
    0:45:00 dramatically
    0:45:00 change or
    0:45:01 relinquish
    0:45:01 control
    0:45:03 and the
    0:45:03 Soviet
    0:45:03 Union
    0:45:04 and the
    0:45:04 former
    0:45:04 Soviet
    0:45:04 States
    0:45:05 went
    0:45:05 another
    0:45:06 and you
    0:45:06 could
    0:45:06 say
    0:45:07 well look
    0:45:08 and after
    0:45:09 1989
    0:45:09 the Chinese
    0:45:10 economy
    0:45:10 boomed
    0:45:11 life got
    0:45:12 better for
    0:45:12 people in
    0:45:12 China
    0:45:13 life got
    0:45:13 really
    0:45:14 terrible
    0:45:14 for a lot
    0:45:15 of people
    0:45:15 in the
    0:45:16 former
    0:45:16 Soviet
    0:45:16 blocs
    0:45:17 maybe we
    0:45:18 actually
    0:45:19 maybe this
    0:45:19 was the
    0:45:20 right way
    0:45:20 to go
    0:45:21 and you
    0:45:21 can make
    0:45:22 that kind
    0:45:22 of argument
    0:45:23 but if
    0:45:23 you show
    0:45:24 the tanks
    0:45:25 and the
    0:45:25 man in
    0:45:25 front of
    0:45:26 the tanks
    0:45:27 you just
    0:45:27 have a
    0:45:27 different
    0:45:27 kind of
    0:45:28 image
    0:45:28 of
    0:45:28 heroism
    0:45:29 it’s
    0:45:30 one of
    0:45:30 my
    0:45:30 favorite
    0:45:31 photographs
    0:45:31 or
    0:45:32 snapshots
    0:45:33 ever taken
    0:45:34 videos
    0:45:34 ever taken
    0:45:35 so I
    0:45:36 apologize
    0:45:36 if we
    0:45:37 linger on
    0:45:37 it
    0:45:38 sometimes
    0:45:39 you don’t
    0:45:39 understand
    0:45:40 the
    0:45:41 symbolic
    0:45:41 power
    0:45:41 of an
    0:45:42 image
    0:45:44 until
    0:45:45 afterwards
    0:45:46 and perhaps
    0:45:46 that’s what
    0:45:47 the Chinese
    0:45:47 government
    0:45:48 didn’t quite
    0:45:48 understand
    0:45:49 they lost
    0:45:49 information
    0:45:50 more
    0:45:50 than
    0:45:50 me
    0:45:51 more
    0:45:52 so I
    0:45:52 have to
    0:45:52 ask
    0:45:53 what do
    0:45:53 you think
    0:45:53 was going
    0:45:54 through that
    0:45:54 man’s
    0:45:54 head
    0:45:56 was it
    0:45:57 a heroic
    0:45:57 statement
    0:45:58 was it
    0:45:59 a purely
    0:46:00 primal
    0:46:01 guttural
    0:46:01 like I’ve
    0:46:02 had enough
    0:46:03 it’s so
    0:46:03 interesting
    0:46:04 to just
    0:46:04 speculate
    0:46:04 and we
    0:46:05 just don’t
    0:46:05 know
    0:46:06 because you
    0:46:06 know he
    0:46:06 was never
    0:46:07 able to be
    0:46:07 interviewed
    0:46:07 afterwards
    0:46:08 but I
    0:46:08 think
    0:46:09 your emphasis
    0:46:10 on patriotism
    0:46:10 is really
    0:46:11 important
    0:46:11 because one
    0:46:11 of the
    0:46:12 students
    0:46:12 main
    0:46:13 demands
    0:46:13 was
    0:46:15 then I
    0:46:15 think it
    0:46:15 might have
    0:46:16 been the
    0:46:16 thing that
    0:46:16 would have
    0:46:17 gotten them
    0:46:17 to leave
    0:46:18 the square
    0:46:18 would have
    0:46:19 been to
    0:46:19 say we
    0:46:20 want this
    0:46:20 to be
    0:46:21 acknowledged
    0:46:21 as a
    0:46:22 patriotic
    0:46:22 that our
    0:46:23 goals are
    0:46:24 patriotic
    0:46:25 we’re not
    0:46:25 here to
    0:46:26 take China
    0:46:26 back into
    0:46:27 the cultural
    0:46:27 revolution
    0:46:28 we’re here
    0:46:30 to express
    0:46:31 our love
    0:46:31 for the
    0:46:32 country
    0:46:32 if it
    0:46:33 goes in
    0:46:34 the right
    0:46:34 way
    0:46:35 so will
    0:46:35 you admit
    0:46:35 that
    0:46:36 and you
    0:46:36 mentioned
    0:46:37 about the
    0:46:37 power of
    0:46:38 the image
    0:46:39 and I do
    0:46:39 think the
    0:46:40 Chinese Communist
    0:46:40 Party
    0:46:40 learned
    0:46:41 something
    0:46:42 to have
    0:46:43 taken to
    0:46:43 heart
    0:46:44 the power
    0:46:44 of the
    0:46:44 image
    0:46:45 after that
    0:46:46 because we
    0:46:46 saw this
    0:46:47 in
    0:46:48 but when
    0:46:49 there were
    0:46:49 protests in
    0:46:50 Hong Kong
    0:46:51 the government
    0:46:52 on the
    0:46:53 mainland
    0:46:53 really wanted
    0:46:54 to tell a
    0:46:55 story there
    0:46:56 of you know
    0:46:56 crowds out
    0:46:57 of control
    0:46:58 and initially
    0:46:58 there were
    0:46:59 in 2014
    0:47:00 and again
    0:47:01 initially in
    0:47:01 2019
    0:47:02 there were
    0:47:03 very orderly
    0:47:03 crowds
    0:47:04 and it
    0:47:06 had trouble
    0:47:06 with that
    0:47:07 story
    0:47:07 so they
    0:47:08 tried
    0:47:09 very hard
    0:47:09 to ban
    0:47:09 images
    0:47:10 of peaceful
    0:47:11 protests
    0:47:12 until there
    0:47:12 were some
    0:47:13 incidents
    0:47:14 as there
    0:47:14 almost always
    0:47:15 are
    0:47:16 of
    0:47:17 violence
    0:47:17 by crowds
    0:47:18 and then
    0:47:19 they would
    0:47:19 show those
    0:47:20 images over
    0:47:20 and over
    0:47:21 again
    0:47:22 they also
    0:47:22 worked
    0:47:23 very hard
    0:47:23 when
    0:47:24 Hong Kong
    0:47:25 protests
    0:47:25 began in
    0:47:26 the 2010s
    0:47:27 to try
    0:47:28 very hard
    0:47:29 to avoid
    0:47:29 any use
    0:47:30 of soldiers
    0:47:31 to repress
    0:47:31 them
    0:47:31 it was
    0:47:31 all the
    0:47:32 police
    0:47:33 and they
    0:47:33 tried
    0:47:34 very hard
    0:47:36 and managed
    0:47:36 to success
    0:47:37 because the
    0:47:38 western press
    0:47:39 was often
    0:47:39 saying will
    0:47:40 this be
    0:47:40 another
    0:47:40 Tiananmen
    0:47:41 will there
    0:47:41 be a
    0:47:42 massacre
    0:47:42 will there
    0:47:42 be soldiers
    0:47:43 on the
    0:47:43 streets
    0:47:45 the movements
    0:47:46 in Hong
    0:47:46 Kong
    0:47:47 were suppressed
    0:47:47 without
    0:47:49 the use
    0:47:50 of
    0:47:51 shooting
    0:47:52 to kill
    0:47:52 on the
    0:47:52 streets
    0:47:53 there were
    0:47:53 shooting
    0:47:54 to wound
    0:47:56 there was
    0:47:56 beanbag
    0:47:57 shot
    0:47:57 there were
    0:47:58 rubber
    0:47:58 bullets
    0:47:58 there was
    0:47:59 enormous
    0:47:59 amounts
    0:48:00 of tear
    0:48:00 gas
    0:48:01 there was
    0:48:01 even tear
    0:48:01 gas
    0:48:02 left
    0:48:02 let
    0:48:04 fly
    0:48:04 inside
    0:48:05 subway
    0:48:05 stations
    0:48:05 in
    0:48:06 2019
    0:48:07 and all
    0:48:07 these
    0:48:07 things
    0:48:07 are
    0:48:08 really
    0:48:09 brutalizing
    0:48:10 but they
    0:48:10 don’t make
    0:48:11 the kind
    0:48:11 of images
    0:48:13 that sear
    0:48:14 in the
    0:48:14 mind
    0:48:15 the way
    0:48:15 something
    0:48:16 like
    0:48:17 the Tiananmen
    0:48:18 tank man
    0:48:18 image
    0:48:19 or the
    0:48:19 image
    0:48:20 of
    0:48:20 a
    0:48:21 Vietnamese
    0:48:22 woman
    0:48:22 being
    0:48:23 burned
    0:48:23 by
    0:48:23 napalm
    0:48:24 young
    0:48:24 woman
    0:48:24 that
    0:48:25 became
    0:48:25 another
    0:48:25 of the
    0:48:26 iconic
    0:48:26 images
    0:48:27 during
    0:48:28 Vietnam
    0:48:28 War
    0:48:28 those
    0:48:29 images
    0:48:29 really
    0:48:30 can
    0:48:31 have
    0:48:31 an
    0:48:32 extraordinary
    0:48:32 power
    0:48:33 and I
    0:48:33 think
    0:48:33 the
    0:48:34 Chinese
    0:48:34 Communist Party
    0:48:34 is now
    0:48:35 aware of
    0:48:35 that
    0:48:36 there are
    0:48:36 no
    0:48:37 really
    0:48:38 gripping
    0:48:39 there are
    0:48:39 very few
    0:48:40 photographs
    0:48:40 allowed
    0:48:42 of the
    0:48:42 Xinjiang
    0:48:44 extra legal
    0:48:45 detention
    0:48:45 camps
    0:48:45 there are
    0:48:46 very little
    0:48:48 very little
    0:48:49 there is an
    0:48:50 awareness of
    0:48:50 how much
    0:48:51 power
    0:48:52 a photograph
    0:48:53 of a certain
    0:48:53 type can
    0:48:54 have
    0:48:55 so nobody
    0:48:56 knows what
    0:48:56 happened to
    0:48:57 the tank
    0:48:57 man
    0:48:59 what do
    0:48:59 you think
    0:48:59 happened to
    0:49:00 the tank
    0:49:00 man
    0:49:01 I assume
    0:49:01 he was
    0:49:01 killed
    0:49:03 I assume
    0:49:03 he was
    0:49:04 just
    0:49:05 disappeared
    0:49:05 it’s
    0:49:06 interesting
    0:49:06 because
    0:49:07 very often
    0:49:09 figures are
    0:49:09 made an
    0:49:10 example of
    0:49:10 in one
    0:49:10 way or
    0:49:11 another
    0:49:11 I mean
    0:49:11 Leo
    0:49:12 Xiaobo
    0:49:12 was
    0:49:15 imprisoned
    0:49:16 and not
    0:49:17 allowed to
    0:49:18 get enough
    0:49:19 medical care
    0:49:19 so you can
    0:49:19 talk about
    0:49:20 him having
    0:49:21 died earlier
    0:49:22 than he
    0:49:22 should have
    0:49:23 but there
    0:49:25 there’s been
    0:49:26 relatively few
    0:49:28 of like for
    0:49:29 political crimes
    0:49:30 recently sentencing
    0:49:31 to death and
    0:49:31 things like that
    0:49:32 it’s much
    0:49:33 more just
    0:49:34 remove them
    0:49:34 imprison them
    0:49:36 but the
    0:49:36 tank man
    0:49:37 there was
    0:49:38 never a
    0:49:38 trial
    0:49:39 there was
    0:49:39 never
    0:49:40 even a
    0:49:41 trial that
    0:49:42 was a
    0:49:44 was one
    0:49:44 that you
    0:49:44 knew what
    0:49:45 the result
    0:49:45 would be
    0:49:46 which there
    0:49:46 was for
    0:49:47 Leo Xiaobo
    0:49:48 and others
    0:49:49 not even a
    0:49:49 hidden trial
    0:49:51 but simply
    0:49:52 simply
    0:49:52 disappeared
    0:49:53 and there’s
    0:49:53 been
    0:49:53 somebody
    0:49:54 who’s
    0:49:55 like
    0:49:55 another
    0:49:56 figure
    0:49:56 like
    0:49:56 this
    0:49:57 who’s
    0:49:57 disappeared
    0:49:59 a couple
    0:49:59 of years
    0:49:59 ago
    0:50:00 in Beijing
    0:50:01 there was
    0:50:02 a lone
    0:50:02 man
    0:50:02 who put
    0:50:02 up a
    0:50:03 banner
    0:50:03 on a
    0:50:04 bridge
    0:50:05 Sittong
    0:50:05 bridge
    0:50:05 in Beijing
    0:50:08 and it
    0:50:08 was
    0:50:08 extraordinary
    0:50:09 it was
    0:50:09 it had
    0:50:10 denunciations
    0:50:11 of the
    0:50:11 direction
    0:50:11 Xi Jinping
    0:50:12 was taking
    0:50:12 the country
    0:50:13 it was
    0:50:14 denunciation
    0:50:14 of
    0:50:15 COVID
    0:50:15 policies
    0:50:16 but also
    0:50:17 a
    0:50:17 dictatorial
    0:50:18 rule
    0:50:18 and
    0:50:19 the banner
    0:50:20 somehow
    0:50:21 he managed
    0:50:21 to have
    0:50:21 it up
    0:50:22 and get
    0:50:23 long
    0:50:23 enough
    0:50:24 to be
    0:50:24 filmed
    0:50:25 and to
    0:50:25 draw
    0:50:26 attention
    0:50:26 and the
    0:50:26 film
    0:50:27 to
    0:50:27 circulate
    0:50:27 again
    0:50:28 another
    0:50:28 image
    0:50:28 of
    0:50:28 the
    0:50:29 power
    0:50:29 of
    0:50:30 images
    0:50:31 and he’s
    0:50:32 disappeared
    0:50:33 and there
    0:50:33 hasn’t been a
    0:50:34 show trial
    0:50:35 or even a
    0:50:35 secret trial
    0:50:37 and again
    0:50:37 you know
    0:50:38 we don’t know
    0:50:38 if he’s still
    0:50:39 alive
    0:50:40 but these
    0:50:40 are cases
    0:50:41 where I think
    0:50:41 the Chinese
    0:50:42 Communist Party
    0:50:43 really doesn’t
    0:50:44 want a
    0:50:44 competing story
    0:50:45 out there
    0:50:46 they don’t
    0:50:47 want somebody
    0:50:47 to be able
    0:50:47 to answer
    0:50:48 what he
    0:50:48 was
    0:50:48 thinking
    0:50:50 how much
    0:50:50 censorship
    0:50:51 is there
    0:50:51 in modern
    0:50:52 day China
    0:50:53 by the
    0:50:53 Chinese
    0:50:54 government
    0:50:55 so
    0:50:55 you know
    0:50:56 there’s a lot
    0:50:56 of censorship
    0:50:57 my favorite
    0:50:58 book about
    0:50:58 one of my
    0:50:59 favorite books
    0:50:59 about Chinese
    0:51:00 censorship
    0:51:01 Margaret Roberts
    0:51:01 where she
    0:51:02 talks about
    0:51:03 there are
    0:51:03 three different
    0:51:05 ways that
    0:51:05 the government
    0:51:06 can control
    0:51:08 the stories
    0:51:09 and she says
    0:51:09 there’s fear
    0:51:10 which is this
    0:51:11 kind of direct
    0:51:11 censorship
    0:51:12 thing
    0:51:13 like banning
    0:51:14 things
    0:51:14 but there’s
    0:51:15 also friction
    0:51:16 which she
    0:51:16 says
    0:51:16 she has
    0:51:17 three apps
    0:51:17 fear
    0:51:18 friction
    0:51:19 and flooding
    0:51:20 and she
    0:51:20 says they’re
    0:51:21 all important
    0:51:21 and I think
    0:51:22 this is true
    0:51:22 not just
    0:51:23 of China
    0:51:23 but in
    0:51:23 other
    0:51:23 settings
    0:51:24 too
    0:51:25 so what
    0:51:26 friction
    0:51:26 means
    0:51:27 is
    0:51:28 you just
    0:51:28 make it
    0:51:28 harder
    0:51:29 for people
    0:51:29 to get
    0:51:30 answers
    0:51:30 or get
    0:51:31 information
    0:51:31 that you
    0:51:31 don’t
    0:51:32 want them
    0:51:32 to get
    0:51:33 even though
    0:51:34 you know
    0:51:34 that
    0:51:35 some people
    0:51:36 will get
    0:51:36 it
    0:51:36 you just
    0:51:36 make it
    0:51:37 that the
    0:51:37 easiest
    0:51:38 way
    0:51:38 the first
    0:51:39 answer
    0:51:39 you’ll
    0:51:39 get
    0:51:39 through a
    0:51:40 search
    0:51:41 so
    0:51:42 a lot
    0:51:42 of
    0:51:43 you know
    0:51:44 tech savvy
    0:51:45 or globally
    0:51:45 minded
    0:51:48 tapped in
    0:51:48 Chinese
    0:51:49 will use
    0:51:50 people
    0:51:50 will use
    0:51:51 a VPN
    0:51:52 to jump
    0:51:52 over the
    0:51:52 firewall
    0:51:53 but it’s
    0:51:54 work
    0:51:55 the internet
    0:51:55 moves slower
    0:51:56 you have
    0:51:57 to keep
    0:51:57 updating
    0:51:58 your VPN
    0:51:59 so you
    0:51:59 just create
    0:52:00 friction
    0:52:01 so that
    0:52:01 okay
    0:52:02 some people
    0:52:02 will find
    0:52:03 this out
    0:52:03 and then
    0:52:04 flooding
    0:52:04 you just
    0:52:05 fill the
    0:52:06 airwaves
    0:52:06 and the
    0:52:06 media
    0:52:07 with
    0:52:08 versions
    0:52:08 of the
    0:52:08 stories
    0:52:09 that you
    0:52:09 want the
    0:52:10 people
    0:52:10 to believe
    0:52:11 so all
    0:52:11 those
    0:52:12 kind of
    0:52:12 exist
    0:52:13 and
    0:52:13 in
    0:52:14 operation
    0:52:14 and I
    0:52:14 think
    0:52:15 the
    0:52:16 fear
    0:52:16 is the
    0:52:17 easiest
    0:52:17 side
    0:52:18 to say
    0:52:18 of what’s
    0:52:18 blocked
    0:52:19 so I’m
    0:52:19 always interested
    0:52:20 in things
    0:52:20 that
    0:52:23 things that
    0:52:23 you would
    0:52:23 expect to
    0:52:24 be censored
    0:52:24 that aren’t
    0:52:25 censored
    0:52:27 you can
    0:52:27 read all
    0:52:28 sorts of
    0:52:29 things in
    0:52:29 China
    0:52:31 about
    0:52:32 totalitarian
    0:52:33 you can read
    0:52:34 Hannah Arendt’s
    0:52:35 book on
    0:52:36 totalitarianism
    0:52:37 which would be
    0:52:37 the kind
    0:52:37 of thing
    0:52:37 you just
    0:52:38 you know
    0:52:38 you’re not
    0:52:38 supposed to be
    0:52:39 able to read
    0:52:39 that in
    0:52:41 a somewhat
    0:52:42 totalitarian
    0:52:43 state or a
    0:52:44 dictatorial state
    0:52:44 if anything
    0:52:46 but it’s not
    0:52:46 specifically about
    0:52:47 China
    0:52:49 and so
    0:52:51 censorship is
    0:52:51 most
    0:52:53 most restrictive
    0:52:54 when it’s things
    0:52:54 that are actually
    0:52:55 about China
    0:52:56 things about
    0:52:57 leaders of the
    0:52:58 Chinese Communist
    0:52:58 Party there’s
    0:52:59 intense kind of
    0:53:00 censorship of
    0:53:00 that
    0:53:02 and certain
    0:53:03 events in that
    0:53:04 way but
    0:53:05 a sort
    0:53:05 of like
    0:53:07 something
    0:53:07 through
    0:53:08 allegory
    0:53:08 something
    0:53:09 through
    0:53:11 imagining
    0:53:12 a place
    0:53:13 that looks
    0:53:13 a lot
    0:53:14 like
    0:53:14 a
    0:53:14 Communist
    0:53:15 Party
    0:53:15 ruled
    0:53:16 state
    0:53:16 so that
    0:53:16 people
    0:53:16 are
    0:53:17 going
    0:53:17 to
    0:53:17 read
    0:53:17 it
    0:53:18 there
    0:53:18 were
    0:53:18 things
    0:53:18 that
    0:53:18 were
    0:53:19 banned
    0:53:20 throughout
    0:53:21 up until
    0:53:21 like the
    0:53:22 very last
    0:53:23 period of
    0:53:23 Gorbachev’s
    0:53:23 rule
    0:53:24 things banned
    0:53:24 in the
    0:53:25 Soviet
    0:53:25 Union
    0:53:26 that are
    0:53:26 available
    0:53:27 in
    0:53:27 Chinese
    0:53:27 bookstores
    0:53:28 you can
    0:53:28 buy
    0:53:28 1984
    0:53:29 in a
    0:53:29 Chinese
    0:53:30 bookstore
    0:53:30 you’ve
    0:53:30 been able
    0:53:31 to
    0:53:31 since
    0:53:32 1985
    0:53:34 you can
    0:53:35 buy
    0:53:35 again
    0:53:35 it’s
    0:53:35 not
    0:53:36 about
    0:53:36 China
    0:53:37 and
    0:53:37 actually
    0:53:37 for
    0:53:38 some
    0:53:38 people
    0:53:38 within
    0:53:39 China
    0:53:40 in the
    0:53:41 mid-1980s
    0:53:42 where they
    0:53:42 focused on
    0:53:43 the part
    0:53:43 of 1984
    0:53:44 that’s
    0:53:44 like the
    0:53:44 two minutes
    0:53:45 of hate
    0:53:45 these rituals
    0:53:46 of denunciation
    0:53:47 of people
    0:53:48 for some
    0:53:48 people in
    0:53:48 China
    0:53:49 it seemed
    0:53:49 like it
    0:53:50 was about
    0:53:50 their past
    0:53:51 not about
    0:53:52 their present
    0:53:53 and then
    0:53:53 by the
    0:53:54 90s
    0:53:54 1984
    0:53:55 is a
    0:53:55 very bleak
    0:53:57 culture
    0:53:57 of scarcity
    0:53:58 a place
    0:53:58 where people
    0:53:59 just aren’t
    0:53:59 having fun
    0:54:01 and people
    0:54:02 said like
    0:54:03 some people
    0:54:03 would read
    0:54:04 1984
    0:54:04 and say
    0:54:04 look
    0:54:05 this is
    0:54:05 the world
    0:54:06 we’re living
    0:54:06 in
    0:54:06 it’s a
    0:54:07 big brother
    0:54:07 state
    0:54:08 but others
    0:54:08 said
    0:54:09 well
    0:54:09 that has
    0:54:10 some
    0:54:10 similarities
    0:54:10 to us
    0:54:11 but
    0:54:12 you know
    0:54:13 he wasn’t
    0:54:13 talking about
    0:54:14 a country
    0:54:14 like ours
    0:54:14 look
    0:54:15 we’ve got
    0:54:16 supermarkets
    0:54:17 we’ve got
    0:54:18 McDonald’s
    0:54:18 I mean
    0:54:18 this is not
    0:54:19 you know
    0:54:19 we’ve got
    0:54:20 fast trains
    0:54:21 we’ve got
    0:54:22 things
    0:54:22 we’re living
    0:54:23 so much
    0:54:23 better
    0:54:23 in some
    0:54:24 ways
    0:54:24 than our
    0:54:25 grandparents
    0:54:25 did
    0:54:25 and
    0:54:26 this isn’t
    0:54:27 like that
    0:54:28 bleak world
    0:54:28 he was
    0:54:28 imagining
    0:54:30 yeah
    0:54:30 you’ve
    0:54:30 actually
    0:54:31 spoken about
    0:54:31 and described
    0:54:32 China’s more
    0:54:32 akin to
    0:54:33 the dystopian
    0:54:33 world
    0:54:34 the brave
    0:54:35 new world
    0:54:36 than 1984
    0:54:38 which is really
    0:54:39 interesting to
    0:54:39 think about
    0:54:40 I think about
    0:54:40 that a lot
    0:54:41 I’ve recently
    0:54:42 reread
    0:54:43 over the past
    0:54:43 couple of years
    0:54:44 reread
    0:54:44 brave new world
    0:54:45 a couple of times
    0:54:46 and also 1984
    0:54:48 it does seem
    0:54:48 it does seem
    0:54:50 that the 21st
    0:54:50 century
    0:54:52 might be
    0:54:53 more defined
    0:54:54 to the degree
    0:54:55 it is dystopian
    0:54:56 any of the
    0:54:57 nations are
    0:54:58 by brave new
    0:54:58 world
    0:54:59 than by
    0:55:00 1984
    0:55:01 there are
    0:55:01 mixed elements
    0:55:02 I think
    0:55:02 there are
    0:55:03 moments
    0:55:03 when it
    0:55:04 can seem
    0:55:04 more
    0:55:06 one than
    0:55:06 the other
    0:55:07 and there
    0:55:07 can be
    0:55:07 parts of
    0:55:08 the same
    0:55:08 country
    0:55:09 that seem
    0:55:09 more
    0:55:10 one than
    0:55:11 the other
    0:55:13 and if we
    0:55:14 just think
    0:55:14 about
    0:55:15 control
    0:55:16 through
    0:55:16 distraction
    0:55:18 and
    0:55:20 playing to
    0:55:20 your
    0:55:21 sense of
    0:55:21 pleasure
    0:55:22 one thing
    0:55:22 that people
    0:55:23 forget
    0:55:23 sometimes
    0:55:24 or don’t
    0:55:24 know
    0:55:25 is that
    0:55:26 Aldous Huxley
    0:55:26 who wrote
    0:55:26 brave new
    0:55:27 world
    0:55:27 taught
    0:55:28 Eric Blair
    0:55:29 who became
    0:55:30 George Orwell
    0:55:30 when he was
    0:55:31 a student
    0:55:31 at Eden
    0:55:32 and they
    0:55:33 were sort
    0:55:33 of rivals
    0:55:34 and in
    0:55:34 fact in
    0:55:35 1949
    0:55:37 Orwell
    0:55:38 sent his
    0:55:38 former teacher
    0:55:39 a copy
    0:55:40 of 1984
    0:55:41 and said
    0:55:41 you know
    0:55:42 look
    0:55:42 I’ve
    0:55:42 written
    0:55:43 this
    0:55:43 basically
    0:55:44 it’s
    0:55:44 kind of
    0:55:45 almost
    0:55:45 a little
    0:55:45 Oedipal
    0:55:46 like
    0:55:46 I’ve
    0:55:46 written
    0:55:46 this
    0:55:47 book
    0:55:47 that
    0:55:48 displaces
    0:55:48 yours
    0:55:49 he didn’t
    0:55:49 say that
    0:55:50 he just
    0:55:50 said I
    0:55:50 wanted you
    0:55:51 to have
    0:55:51 this
    0:55:51 but he
    0:55:52 criticized
    0:55:52 brave new
    0:55:52 world
    0:55:53 and
    0:55:54 reviews
    0:55:55 as like
    0:55:57 not having
    0:55:58 having imagined
    0:55:59 a world
    0:56:00 of capitalism
    0:56:00 run wild
    0:56:01 like before
    0:56:02 realizing
    0:56:03 the kind
    0:56:03 of
    0:56:03 totalitarian
    0:56:04 threats
    0:56:04 of the
    0:56:05 middle
    0:56:05 of the
    0:56:05 20th
    0:56:05 century
    0:56:06 but
    0:56:06 Huxley
    0:56:07 wrote
    0:56:07 Orwell
    0:56:08 a letter
    0:56:08 in October
    0:56:09 of 1949
    0:56:10 same month
    0:56:10 the communist
    0:56:11 party
    0:56:12 took control
    0:56:12 in China
    0:56:13 not that he
    0:56:14 mentions China
    0:56:15 and he just
    0:56:15 said you know
    0:56:16 it’s a great
    0:56:16 book and
    0:56:16 everything
    0:56:17 but I think
    0:56:18 the dictators
    0:56:19 of the future
    0:56:20 will find
    0:56:21 less arduous
    0:56:22 ways to keep
    0:56:23 control over
    0:56:23 the population
    0:56:25 basically saying
    0:56:25 more like
    0:56:26 what was in
    0:56:27 my book
    0:56:27 than in
    0:56:27 yours
    0:56:29 I have to
    0:56:30 say I
    0:56:30 think Huxley
    0:56:32 might be
    0:56:33 really onto
    0:56:33 something there
    0:56:34 truly a
    0:56:35 visionary
    0:56:36 although to
    0:56:37 give points
    0:56:37 to Orwell
    0:56:38 I do
    0:56:39 think as
    0:56:39 far as
    0:56:41 just a
    0:56:42 philosophical
    0:56:43 work of
    0:56:44 fiction
    0:56:46 1984 is a
    0:56:46 better book
    0:56:48 because Brave
    0:56:49 New World does
    0:56:49 not quite
    0:56:50 construct the
    0:56:51 philosophical
    0:56:51 message
    0:56:52 thoroughly
    0:56:54 because 1984
    0:56:55 contains many
    0:56:56 very clearly
    0:56:57 very poetically
    0:56:59 defined elements
    0:57:00 of a
    0:57:00 totalitarian
    0:57:01 regime
    0:57:02 oh and the
    0:57:03 dissection of
    0:57:04 language is just
    0:57:04 so amazing
    0:57:05 no I think
    0:57:05 you’ve got a
    0:57:06 point there
    0:57:06 and I went
    0:57:06 back and
    0:57:07 reread
    0:57:08 Brave New
    0:57:08 World and
    0:57:09 it’s it’s
    0:57:10 fascinating but
    0:57:11 it’s very
    0:57:12 it’s very
    0:57:12 messy
    0:57:13 yeah I
    0:57:13 think there’s
    0:57:14 a clarity
    0:57:15 to to
    0:57:16 Orwell’s
    0:57:16 1984
    0:57:17 there’s a
    0:57:18 clarity to
    0:57:19 Margaret Atwood’s
    0:57:20 Handmaid’s Tale
    0:57:21 similarly the
    0:57:22 the construction
    0:57:23 of the
    0:57:24 elements and
    0:57:24 she was a
    0:57:25 big fan of
    0:57:28 both 1984
    0:57:28 and Brave
    0:57:29 New World so
    0:57:30 there’s a way
    0:57:31 they they go
    0:57:32 forward but
    0:57:33 you know there
    0:57:33 was a kind
    0:57:34 of it’s not
    0:57:35 exactly a sequel
    0:57:36 but Huxley
    0:57:37 did write
    0:57:37 something called
    0:57:38 Brave New
    0:57:39 World Revisited
    0:57:39 yes he did
    0:57:40 in the 50s
    0:57:41 and he kind
    0:57:41 of said
    0:57:42 actually
    0:57:43 it seems
    0:57:43 and he
    0:57:43 mentions
    0:57:44 China there
    0:57:45 he says
    0:57:46 that in
    0:57:46 Mao’s
    0:57:46 China
    0:57:47 they’re
    0:57:47 kind of
    0:57:48 combining
    0:57:49 the two
    0:57:49 things of
    0:57:50 this and
    0:57:52 I’m really
    0:57:52 fascinated by
    0:57:53 that because
    0:57:54 they published
    0:57:55 in China
    0:57:57 on the
    0:57:57 Chinese mainland
    0:57:58 it was
    0:57:59 published in
    0:58:00 Taiwan and
    0:58:00 Hong Kong
    0:58:01 too it’s
    0:58:01 called the
    0:58:02 Dystopian
    0:58:03 Trilogy and
    0:58:04 it’s a
    0:58:05 box set
    0:58:05 where you
    0:58:06 have
    0:58:07 Zemiatan
    0:58:07 Zui
    0:58:08 who inspired
    0:58:09 both Orwell
    0:58:10 and Huxley
    0:58:11 to some extent
    0:58:12 that’s one
    0:58:13 book
    0:58:13 and then
    0:58:13 there’s
    0:58:14 Animal Farm
    0:58:15 in 1984
    0:58:16 is the
    0:58:16 second book
    0:58:17 and then
    0:58:18 the third
    0:58:19 volume is
    0:58:20 Huxley’s
    0:58:20 Brave New
    0:58:21 World and
    0:58:21 Brave New
    0:58:22 World Revisited
    0:58:23 and it was
    0:58:24 published in
    0:58:25 complex characters
    0:58:27 you could buy it
    0:58:28 in Hong Kong
    0:58:29 but I compared it
    0:58:30 to the book
    0:58:31 you can buy
    0:58:31 on the mainland
    0:58:33 and it’s all
    0:58:33 the same
    0:58:35 except the
    0:58:36 parts in
    0:58:37 Brave New
    0:58:37 World Revisited
    0:58:38 that refer to
    0:58:39 China are
    0:58:39 scalpeled out
    0:58:41 and this I
    0:58:41 think shows
    0:58:42 the subtlety
    0:58:43 of the
    0:58:44 censorship
    0:58:44 system
    0:58:45 you can
    0:58:46 buy these
    0:58:46 books and
    0:58:47 you can
    0:58:47 read about
    0:58:48 them but
    0:58:48 the parts
    0:58:50 that really
    0:58:50 show you
    0:58:51 how to
    0:58:51 connect the
    0:58:51 dots
    0:58:53 that gets
    0:58:54 taken out
    0:58:55 and I do
    0:58:55 think the
    0:58:56 Brave New
    0:58:57 World side
    0:58:57 of things
    0:58:58 I think
    0:58:59 with China
    0:59:00 I was feeling
    0:59:00 it was
    0:59:00 definitely
    0:59:01 moving
    0:59:02 more toward
    0:59:03 Brave New
    0:59:03 World
    0:59:04 except
    0:59:05 Tibet and
    0:59:05 Xinjiang
    0:59:06 being
    0:59:07 more
    0:59:08 the
    0:59:08 crude
    0:59:08 boot
    0:59:09 on the
    0:59:09 face
    0:59:10 1984
    0:59:10 style
    0:59:11 of
    0:59:11 control
    0:59:12 but
    0:59:12 then
    0:59:12 during
    0:59:13 the
    0:59:13 COVID
    0:59:14 lockdowns
    0:59:14 when
    0:59:14 people
    0:59:14 were
    0:59:15 being
    0:59:15 so
    0:59:16 intensely
    0:59:16 monitored
    0:59:16 and
    0:59:17 controlled
    0:59:18 even
    0:59:18 places
    0:59:19 like
    0:59:19 Shanghai
    0:59:19 that it
    0:59:20 seemed
    0:59:20 much
    0:59:20 more
    0:59:20 the
    0:59:21 Brave
    0:59:21 New
    0:59:21 World
    0:59:21 kind
    0:59:22 of
    0:59:36 what
    0:59:36 it
    0:59:36 could
    0:59:36 give
    0:59:36 a
    0:59:37 sense
    0:59:38 after
    0:59:38 you
    0:59:39 thoroughly
    0:59:40 internalize
    0:59:41 the fear
    0:59:42 that you
    0:59:42 have
    0:59:42 complete
    0:59:43 freedom
    0:59:43 of
    0:59:43 speech
    0:59:44 just
    0:59:45 don’t
    0:59:45 mention
    0:59:45 the
    0:59:46 government
    0:59:47 so you
    0:59:47 could
    0:59:47 talk
    0:59:47 about
    0:59:48 totalitarianism
    0:59:48 you could
    0:59:49 talk
    0:59:49 about
    0:59:50 the
    0:59:50 darkest
    0:59:50 aspects
    0:59:51 of
    0:59:51 human
    0:59:51 nature
    0:59:52 just
    0:59:53 don’t
    0:59:54 you can
    0:59:54 even
    0:59:54 talk
    0:59:55 about
    0:59:55 the
    0:59:55 government
    0:59:56 in a
    0:59:56 sort
    0:59:56 of
    0:59:57 metaphorical
    0:59:58 like
    0:59:58 poetic
    1:00:01 way
    1:00:02 that’s
    1:00:02 not
    1:00:02 directly
    1:00:03 linkable
    1:00:04 but the
    1:00:05 moment you
    1:00:05 mention the
    1:00:05 government
    1:00:05 it’s
    1:00:06 like
    1:00:06 a
    1:00:06 dumb
    1:00:06 keyword
    1:00:07 search
    1:00:08 it’s
    1:00:08 yeah
    1:00:08 it’s
    1:00:09 and
    1:00:09 and
    1:00:09 I
    1:00:09 think
    1:00:09 it’s
    1:00:10 like
    1:00:10 one
    1:00:10 of
    1:00:10 these
    1:00:11 really
    1:00:11 good
    1:00:12 examples
    1:00:12 of
    1:00:12 how
    1:00:13 you
    1:00:13 know
    1:00:14 China’s
    1:00:14 distinctive
    1:00:15 but it’s
    1:00:15 it’s
    1:00:16 not
    1:00:16 unique
    1:00:17 you have
    1:00:17 other
    1:00:17 settings
    1:00:18 where you
    1:00:18 have
    1:00:18 these
    1:00:19 like
    1:00:19 no-go
    1:00:20 zones
    1:00:20 that
    1:00:20 you
    1:00:20 learn
    1:00:20 and
    1:00:21 one
    1:00:22 example
    1:00:22 is
    1:00:22 in
    1:00:22 Singapore
    1:00:23 you
    1:00:23 know
    1:00:23 there
    1:00:24 was
    1:00:24 this
    1:00:25 so
    1:00:26 National
    1:00:26 University
    1:00:26 of
    1:00:27 Singapore
    1:00:27 has
    1:00:27 a
    1:00:28 world-class
    1:00:28 history
    1:00:28 department
    1:00:30 but
    1:00:30 no
    1:00:30 Singapore
    1:00:31 historian
    1:00:32 in it
    1:00:32 nobody
    1:00:32 who
    1:00:33 focuses
    1:00:33 on
    1:00:33 the
    1:00:33 history
    1:00:33 of
    1:00:34 Singapore
    1:00:35 because
    1:00:35 you know
    1:00:35 it’s
    1:00:36 incredibly
    1:00:37 wide-ranging
    1:00:37 what you
    1:00:37 can
    1:00:38 what you
    1:00:38 can
    1:00:39 do
    1:00:40 analyze
    1:00:40 but
    1:00:41 when
    1:00:41 you’re
    1:00:42 actually
    1:00:42 talking
    1:00:42 about
    1:00:43 the
    1:00:43 family
    1:00:43 that’s
    1:00:44 been
    1:00:44 most
    1:00:44 powerful
    1:00:45 in
    1:00:45 Singapore
    1:00:45 then
    1:00:46 it
    1:00:46 gets
    1:00:47 to be
    1:00:47 touchy
    1:00:48 in
    1:00:49 Thailand
    1:00:50 which
    1:00:50 I’ve
    1:00:50 been
    1:00:51 working
    1:00:51 on
    1:00:52 recently
    1:00:52 you
    1:00:53 have
    1:00:53 this
    1:00:54 laws
    1:00:57 that
    1:00:57 make
    1:00:57 it
    1:00:57 very
    1:01:00 dangerous
    1:01:01 to say
    1:01:01 certain
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    1:01:02 the
    1:01:02 king
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    1:01:04 all
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    1:01:04 these
    1:01:04 settings
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    1:01:05 have
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    1:01:05 out
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    1:01:06 to
    1:01:06 work
    1:01:07 around
    1:01:07 and
    1:01:07 there’s
    1:01:07 a
    1:01:10 way
    1:01:10 in
    1:01:10 which
    1:01:11 you
    1:01:11 can
    1:01:12 say
    1:01:12 at
    1:01:12 the
    1:01:13 foreign
    1:01:14 correspondence
    1:01:14 clubs
    1:01:15 in
    1:01:15 different
    1:01:15 parts
    1:01:15 of
    1:01:16 Asia
    1:01:17 you
    1:01:17 can
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    1:01:17 an
    1:01:18 event
    1:01:18 that’s
    1:01:19 about
    1:01:19 the
    1:01:20 country
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    1:01:23 want
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    1:01:25 the
    1:01:25 place
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    1:01:26 are
    1:01:28 you’re
    1:01:29 I should
    1:01:29 give
    1:01:30 credit
    1:01:30 for
    1:01:30 that
    1:01:31 insight
    1:01:32 Shibani
    1:01:32 Matani
    1:01:33 who’s
    1:01:33 written
    1:01:35 co-wrote
    1:01:35 a very
    1:01:35 good
    1:01:35 book
    1:01:35 on
    1:01:36 Hong
    1:01:36 Kong
    1:01:36 Among
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    1:01:37 Braves
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    1:01:38 was
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    1:01:40 Singapore
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    1:02:02 Singapore
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    1:02:04 Thailand
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    1:02:46 state
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    1:03:02 great
    1:03:03 technology
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    1:03:05 that idea
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    1:03:06 freedom
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    1:03:08 don’t
    1:03:09 want
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    1:03:09 United
    1:03:10 States
    1:03:11 you
    1:03:11 don’t
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    1:03:22 obviously
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    1:03:24 America
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    1:05:27 then
    1:05:27 take
    1:05:27 them
    1:05:27 to
    1:05:27 the
    1:05:28 next
    1:05:28 level
    1:05:28 and
    1:05:28 talk
    1:05:29 about
    1:05:29 the
    1:05:30 applicability
    1:05:31 to
    1:05:32 the
    1:05:32 situation
    1:05:32 in
    1:05:33 China
    1:05:34 some
    1:05:34 of
    1:05:34 those
    1:05:34 bookstores
    1:05:35 have
    1:05:35 closed
    1:05:36 or
    1:05:36 have
    1:05:36 had
    1:05:36 to
    1:05:37 become
    1:05:37 kind
    1:05:37 of
    1:05:38 really
    1:05:39 shadows
    1:05:39 of
    1:05:39 what
    1:05:39 they
    1:05:40 were
    1:05:40 and
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    1:05:41 best
    1:05:42 ones
    1:05:42 not
    1:05:42 the
    1:05:42 one
    1:05:51 I
    1:05:52 wrote
    1:05:53 freewheeling
    1:05:53 discussions
    1:05:54 of
    1:05:54 liberal
    1:05:55 ideas
    1:05:55 in
    1:05:55 the
    1:05:55 early
    1:05:56 2000s
    1:05:56 and
    1:05:57 early
    1:05:58 2010s
    1:05:58 but
    1:05:58 then
    1:05:59 it
    1:05:59 just
    1:05:59 got
    1:05:59 less
    1:05:59 and
    1:06:00 less
    1:06:00 space
    1:06:00 to
    1:06:01 operate
    1:06:01 under
    1:06:02 Xi
    1:06:02 Jinping
    1:06:03 when
    1:06:03 things
    1:06:04 started
    1:06:04 narrowing
    1:06:06 and
    1:06:06 it
    1:06:06 then
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    1:06:07 close
    1:06:07 in
    1:06:07 Shanghai
    1:06:08 and
    1:06:08 it’s
    1:06:08 just
    1:06:08 been
    1:06:09 reopened
    1:06:10 in
    1:06:11 DC
    1:06:12 as
    1:06:12 J.F.
    1:06:12 books
    1:06:13 and
    1:06:13 it’s
    1:06:14 becoming
    1:06:14 this
    1:06:15 really
    1:06:15 interesting
    1:06:16 cultural
    1:06:16 hub
    1:06:16 and
    1:06:17 I’m
    1:06:17 really
    1:06:17 delighted
    1:06:18 it’s
    1:06:18 where
    1:06:18 I’m
    1:06:18 going
    1:06:19 to
    1:06:19 hold
    1:06:20 the
    1:06:20 launch
    1:06:20 for
    1:06:20 my
    1:06:21 next
    1:06:21 book
    1:06:22 when
    1:06:22 it
    1:06:22 comes
    1:06:22 out
    1:06:22 in
    1:06:23 June
    1:06:23 this
    1:06:24 book
    1:06:24 on
    1:06:24 the
    1:06:24 milk
    1:06:24 tea
    1:06:25 alliance
    1:06:26 about
    1:06:27 struggles
    1:06:27 for
    1:06:28 change
    1:06:28 across
    1:06:29 East
    1:06:29 and
    1:06:29 Southeast
    1:06:30 Asia
    1:06:30 including
    1:06:31 in
    1:06:32 places
    1:06:32 that
    1:06:32 are
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    1:06:33 about
    1:06:33 the
    1:06:33 kind
    1:06:33 of
    1:06:34 rising
    1:06:34 influence
    1:06:34 of
    1:06:35 Beijing
    1:06:35 and
    1:06:35 it
    1:06:35 seems
    1:06:35 just
    1:06:36 perfect
    1:06:37 to
    1:06:37 be
    1:06:38 to
    1:06:38 be
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    1:06:39 it
    1:06:43 places
    1:06:43 like
    1:06:44 that
    1:06:44 they
    1:06:45 stop
    1:06:45 being
    1:06:45 able
    1:06:45 to
    1:06:45 exist
    1:06:45 on
    1:06:46 the
    1:06:46 mainland
    1:06:46 then
    1:06:46 they
    1:06:46 could
    1:06:47 still
    1:06:47 exist
    1:06:47 in
    1:06:47 Hong
    1:06:48 Kong
    1:06:49 but
    1:06:49 now
    1:06:49 in
    1:06:49 Hong
    1:06:50 Kong
    1:06:51 one
    1:06:51 of
    1:06:51 the
    1:06:51 coolest
    1:06:52 bookstores
    1:06:52 has had
    1:06:52 to
    1:06:53 close
    1:06:53 up
    1:06:54 it
    1:06:54 just
    1:06:54 didn’t
    1:06:54 feel
    1:06:55 like
    1:06:55 it
    1:06:55 could
    1:06:55 continue
    1:06:56 operating
    1:06:56 and
    1:06:56 tightening
    1:06:57 control
    1:06:57 there
    1:06:57 and
    1:06:57 it’s
    1:06:58 reopened
    1:06:58 in
    1:06:58 upstate
    1:06:58 New
    1:06:59 York
    1:07:00 so
    1:07:00 you
    1:07:00 have
    1:07:00 this
    1:07:01 phenomenon
    1:07:02 of
    1:07:03 bookstores
    1:07:03 there’s
    1:07:03 also
    1:07:04 a few
    1:07:04 bookstores
    1:07:05 called
    1:07:05 the
    1:07:06 Nowhere
    1:07:06 bookstores
    1:07:07 that
    1:07:07 opened
    1:07:07 in
    1:07:08 Chiang Mai
    1:07:09 and
    1:07:09 Taipei
    1:07:10 and
    1:07:11 The Hague
    1:07:11 and I
    1:07:11 heard
    1:07:12 one
    1:07:12 is
    1:07:13 going
    1:07:13 to
    1:07:13 open
    1:07:13 in
    1:07:15 Japan
    1:07:15 too
    1:07:16 my
    1:07:17 sometime
    1:07:18 collaborator
    1:07:18 Amy Hawkins
    1:07:19 who
    1:07:20 covers
    1:07:20 China for
    1:07:21 The Guardian
    1:07:22 wrote a
    1:07:22 great piece
    1:07:23 late last
    1:07:23 year
    1:07:23 about
    1:07:24 this
    1:07:25 overseas
    1:07:25 bookstore
    1:07:26 phenomenon
    1:07:26 sort of
    1:07:28 carrying on
    1:07:28 the
    1:07:28 conversations
    1:07:29 that
    1:07:29 people
    1:07:30 thought
    1:07:31 they
    1:07:31 might
    1:07:31 be
    1:07:31 able
    1:07:31 to
    1:07:31 have
    1:07:32 in
    1:07:32 China
    1:07:32 and
    1:07:32 then
    1:07:33 couldn’t
    1:07:34 and
    1:07:34 imagine
    1:07:35 someday
    1:07:35 being able
    1:07:36 to hold
    1:07:36 in
    1:07:36 China
    1:07:36 but
    1:07:37 maybe
    1:07:38 can’t
    1:07:38 so
    1:07:38 first
    1:07:39 of all
    1:07:40 boy
    1:07:40 do I
    1:07:40 love
    1:07:41 America
    1:07:42 and
    1:07:43 second
    1:07:43 of all
    1:07:43 it makes
    1:07:43 me
    1:07:44 really sad
    1:07:45 because
    1:07:45 there’s
    1:07:45 a very
    1:07:46 large
    1:07:46 number
    1:07:46 of
    1:07:47 incredible
    1:07:47 people
    1:07:47 in
    1:07:47 China
    1:07:49 incredible
    1:07:49 minds
    1:07:50 and
    1:07:52 maybe
    1:07:52 I’m
    1:07:52 romantic
    1:07:53 about
    1:07:53 this
    1:07:53 but
    1:07:53 books
    1:07:55 is
    1:07:55 a
    1:07:55 catalyst
    1:07:56 for
    1:07:57 brilliant
    1:07:57 minds
    1:07:57 to
    1:07:57 flourish
    1:07:58 and
    1:07:58 without
    1:07:59 that
    1:08:00 so
    1:08:00 I
    1:08:00 guess
    1:08:00 maybe
    1:08:01 this
    1:08:01 is
    1:08:01 a
    1:08:01 good
    1:08:01 time
    1:08:01 to
    1:08:02 mention
    1:08:02 something
    1:08:02 that
    1:08:03 I
    1:08:03 do
    1:08:04 think
    1:08:04 about
    1:08:04 and
    1:08:05 sometimes
    1:08:05 people
    1:08:06 will
    1:08:06 think
    1:08:06 because
    1:08:06 of
    1:08:07 censorship
    1:08:07 and
    1:08:07 that
    1:08:08 there’s
    1:08:08 an idea
    1:08:09 of
    1:08:10 brainwashing
    1:08:10 within
    1:08:10 China
    1:08:11 population
    1:08:12 control
    1:08:12 and
    1:08:13 I
    1:08:14 periodically
    1:08:14 will
    1:08:14 get
    1:08:15 students
    1:08:16 from
    1:08:16 the
    1:08:17 mainland
    1:08:18 and
    1:08:18 I
    1:08:19 have
    1:08:19 a lot
    1:08:19 of
    1:08:19 students
    1:08:19 from
    1:08:20 the
    1:08:20 mainland
    1:08:20 in
    1:08:20 my
    1:08:20 classes
    1:08:21 I
    1:08:21 teach
    1:08:21 Chinese
    1:08:21 history
    1:08:22 and
    1:08:22 I
    1:08:22 feel
    1:08:22 like
    1:08:22 okay
    1:08:23 now
    1:08:23 now
    1:08:23 I
    1:08:23 now
    1:08:24 I’m
    1:08:24 contradicting
    1:08:25 the
    1:08:25 version
    1:08:25 of
    1:08:26 the
    1:08:26 past
    1:08:26 that
    1:08:26 they
    1:08:27 that’s
    1:08:27 been
    1:08:27 drumbeat
    1:08:28 into
    1:08:28 them
    1:08:29 but
    1:08:29 I’ll
    1:08:29 still
    1:08:30 get
    1:08:30 students
    1:08:31 who
    1:08:31 are
    1:08:32 incredible
    1:08:32 free
    1:08:32 thinkers
    1:08:33 who
    1:08:33 have
    1:08:33 come
    1:08:33 through
    1:08:34 that
    1:08:34 system
    1:08:34 and
    1:08:34 it
    1:08:35 just
    1:08:36 doesn’t
    1:08:36 hold
    1:08:37 or
    1:08:37 there
    1:08:37 are
    1:08:37 limits
    1:08:37 to
    1:08:38 it
    1:08:39 and
    1:08:40 this
    1:08:40 is
    1:08:41 kind
    1:08:41 of
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    1:08:42 mean
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    1:08:43 them
    1:08:43 are
    1:08:43 people
    1:08:43 who
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    1:08:44 curious
    1:08:45 by
    1:08:45 something
    1:08:45 and
    1:08:46 it
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    1:08:46 a
    1:08:47 porous
    1:08:47 system
    1:08:48 even
    1:08:49 it’s
    1:08:50 more
    1:08:50 porous
    1:08:50 than
    1:08:51 North
    1:08:51 Korea
    1:08:52 things
    1:08:52 like
    1:08:52 that
    1:08:53 so
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    1:08:53 are
    1:08:54 even
    1:08:54 if
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    1:08:54 that
    1:08:55 fear
    1:08:56 friction
    1:08:56 and
    1:08:56 flooding
    1:08:57 which
    1:08:59 Roberts
    1:08:59 talks
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    1:09:04 government
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    1:09:05 people
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    1:09:07 time
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    1:09:09 or
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    1:09:12 image
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    1:09:23 WeChat
    1:09:24 that
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    1:09:28 censors
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    1:09:30 and
    1:09:30 they
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    1:09:31 a
    1:09:32 minute
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    1:09:33 what
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    1:09:34 government
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    1:09:35 line
    1:09:36 is
    1:09:36 so
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    1:09:41 and
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    1:09:41 of
    1:09:41 thinking
    1:09:42 persists
    1:09:43 I
    1:09:43 mean
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    1:09:44 that’s
    1:09:45 really
    1:09:45 beautiful
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    1:09:45 hear
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    1:09:47 the
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    1:09:51 wants
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    1:09:59 always
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    1:10:03 inside
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    1:10:07 maybe
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    1:10:08 being
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    1:10:09 ways
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    1:10:15 if
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    1:10:16 spark
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    1:10:18 possibility
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    1:10:19 a
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    1:10:20 citizen
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    1:10:21 China
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    1:10:21 might
    1:10:21 never
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    1:10:23 ask
    1:10:23 maybe
    1:10:23 a whole
    1:10:24 different
    1:10:25 perspective
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    1:10:26 world
    1:10:27 history
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    1:10:28 to
    1:10:28 be
    1:10:28 fair
    1:10:29 I
    1:10:29 think
    1:10:29 United
    1:10:30 States
    1:10:30 is
    1:10:31 is
    1:10:31 often
    1:10:32 guilty
    1:10:32 of
    1:10:32 this
    1:10:33 very
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    1:10:35 view
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    1:10:36 with
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    1:10:38 very
    1:10:38 Europe
    1:10:39 sense
    1:10:39 of
    1:10:40 history
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    1:10:41 often
    1:10:41 enjoy
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    1:10:48 like
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    1:10:54 story
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    1:11:01 Front
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    1:11:02 Japan
    1:11:03 and
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    1:11:08 World
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    1:11:09 China
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    1:11:11 States
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    1:11:35 and
    1:11:36 all
    1:11:36 of
    1:11:36 culture
    1:11:36 so
    1:11:38 yes
    1:11:38 it’s
    1:11:38 always
    1:11:39 good
    1:11:39 to
    1:11:39 question
    1:11:40 the
    1:11:40 mainstream
    1:11:41 narrative
    1:11:41 in
    1:11:41 your
    1:11:41 country
    1:11:42 and
    1:11:42 looking
    1:11:43 outside
    1:11:43 it’s
    1:11:43 just
    1:11:44 harder
    1:11:44 to
    1:11:44 do
    1:11:44 in
    1:11:44 China
    1:11:45 based
    1:11:45 on
    1:11:46 technological
    1:11:47 based
    1:11:47 on
    1:11:47 all
    1:11:47 the
    1:11:48 reasons
    1:11:48 you
    1:11:48 mentioned
    1:11:49 and
    1:11:49 if
    1:11:49 I
    1:11:49 can
    1:11:49 I
    1:11:49 just
    1:11:50 want
    1:11:50 to
    1:11:50 give
    1:11:50 a
    1:11:50 shout
    1:11:50 out
    1:11:51 thank
    1:11:51 you
    1:11:51 I’ll
    1:11:51 look
    1:11:51 at
    1:11:52 her
    1:11:52 work
    1:11:52 Margaret
    1:11:53 Roberts
    1:11:54 the
    1:11:54 fear
    1:11:55 the
    1:11:55 friction
    1:11:55 and the
    1:11:56 flooding
    1:12:03 involving
    1:12:03 overt
    1:12:04 threats
    1:12:04 and
    1:12:05 punishments
    1:12:05 for
    1:12:06 accessing
    1:12:06 and sharing
    1:12:07 sensitive
    1:12:08 information
    1:12:09 however
    1:12:10 Roberts
    1:12:11 finds
    1:12:11 that
    1:12:11 fear
    1:12:11 based
    1:12:12 censorship
    1:12:12 is
    1:12:12 used
    1:12:13 selectively
    1:12:14 mainly
    1:12:14 targeting
    1:12:14 high
    1:12:15 profile
    1:12:15 individuals
    1:12:16 such as
    1:12:16 journalists
    1:12:16 or
    1:12:17 activists
    1:12:17 for
    1:12:17 the
    1:12:18 average
    1:12:18 citizen
    1:12:19 the
    1:12:19 risk
    1:12:19 of
    1:12:19 punishment
    1:12:20 is
    1:12:20 relatively
    1:12:21 low
    1:12:21 and
    1:12:21 fear
    1:12:22 alone
    1:12:22 is
    1:12:22 not
    1:12:22 the
    1:12:22 main
    1:12:23 deterrent
    1:12:24 she
    1:12:24 goes
    1:12:24 on
    1:12:24 to
    1:12:24 describe
    1:12:25 the
    1:12:26 friction
    1:12:26 and
    1:12:26 the
    1:12:27 flooding
    1:12:28 the
    1:12:28 friction
    1:12:28 is
    1:12:29 attacks
    1:12:29 on
    1:12:30 information
    1:12:31 access
    1:12:32 and
    1:12:32 flooding
    1:12:34 is
    1:12:34 less
    1:12:34 visible
    1:12:35 than
    1:12:35 fear
    1:12:35 or
    1:12:35 friction
    1:12:36 but
    1:12:36 is
    1:12:36 a
    1:12:36 powerful
    1:12:37 tool
    1:12:37 for
    1:12:37 shaping
    1:12:37 the
    1:12:38 information
    1:12:38 environment
    1:12:40 flooding
    1:12:40 one
    1:12:40 scares
    1:12:41 me
    1:12:42 more
    1:12:42 and
    1:12:42 more
    1:12:42 flooding
    1:12:43 one
    1:12:43 is
    1:12:43 the
    1:12:43 brave
    1:12:43 new
    1:12:44 world
    1:12:44 yeah
    1:12:45 it is
    1:12:45 and
    1:12:45 I
    1:12:45 think
    1:12:46 it’s
    1:12:46 a whole
    1:12:47 kind
    1:12:47 of
    1:12:49 the
    1:12:49 world
    1:12:49 of
    1:12:50 short
    1:12:50 attention
    1:12:50 spans
    1:12:51 and
    1:12:51 social
    1:12:51 media
    1:12:52 and
    1:12:52 how
    1:12:52 this
    1:12:52 all
    1:12:53 works
    1:12:53 and
    1:12:54 Chinese
    1:12:54 Communist
    1:12:55 Party
    1:12:55 leaders
    1:12:56 I
    1:12:56 brought
    1:12:56 up
    1:12:56 Singapore
    1:12:57 and
    1:12:58 Deng Xiaoping
    1:12:58 and some
    1:12:59 other leaders
    1:12:59 were like
    1:13:00 looking at
    1:13:00 that
    1:13:00 and
    1:13:00 they’re
    1:13:01 looking
    1:13:01 at
    1:13:01 you know
    1:13:01 there are
    1:13:02 all kinds
    1:13:02 of
    1:13:02 things
    1:13:03 that
    1:13:04 it
    1:13:04 both
    1:13:06 going to
    1:13:07 Singapore
    1:13:09 can
    1:13:09 sometimes
    1:13:10 make you
    1:13:10 feel like
    1:13:11 you’re
    1:13:12 in this
    1:13:12 futuristic
    1:13:13 setting
    1:13:13 in terms
    1:13:14 of a lot
    1:13:14 of things
    1:13:14 that
    1:13:15 eventually
    1:13:16 came
    1:13:17 to other
    1:13:17 parts of
    1:13:18 the world
    1:13:18 would be
    1:13:19 tried out
    1:13:19 there
    1:13:19 and
    1:13:19 and
    1:13:20 and
    1:13:20 I
    1:13:20 think
    1:13:21 the
    1:13:21 seductiveness
    1:13:21 is
    1:13:21 that
    1:13:22 some
    1:13:22 of
    1:13:22 these
    1:13:22 things
    1:13:22 are
    1:13:23 are
    1:13:24 really
    1:13:25 they
    1:13:25 both
    1:13:25 add to
    1:13:26 convenience
    1:13:27 at the
    1:13:27 same
    1:13:27 time
    1:13:28 they
    1:13:28 strip
    1:13:28 away
    1:13:29 they’re
    1:13:30 collecting
    1:13:31 information
    1:13:32 about
    1:13:32 you
    1:13:33 which
    1:13:33 can
    1:13:33 be
    1:13:34 also
    1:13:35 something
    1:13:35 that
    1:13:36 can
    1:13:36 make
    1:13:36 your
    1:13:37 life
    1:13:37 easier
    1:13:38 at the
    1:13:38 same
    1:13:39 times
    1:13:39 it’s
    1:13:39 stripping
    1:13:39 you
    1:13:40 away
    1:13:40 of
    1:13:40 I
    1:13:41 mean
    1:13:41 we
    1:13:41 talk
    1:13:41 about
    1:13:41 the
    1:13:42 siloing
    1:13:42 of
    1:13:43 information
    1:13:43 and
    1:13:44 targeting
    1:13:44 of
    1:13:45 ads
    1:13:45 and
    1:13:45 targeting
    1:13:46 of
    1:13:46 news
    1:13:47 and
    1:13:48 so
    1:13:48 two
    1:13:48 things
    1:13:49 come
    1:13:49 to
    1:13:49 mind
    1:13:49 to
    1:13:50 mention
    1:13:50 one
    1:13:50 is
    1:13:52 Christina
    1:13:53 Larson
    1:13:53 a very
    1:13:54 bright
    1:13:54 journalist
    1:13:55 a friend
    1:13:55 of mine
    1:13:56 who’s
    1:13:56 now
    1:13:57 working
    1:13:57 on
    1:13:57 other
    1:13:57 things
    1:13:57 but
    1:13:57 was
    1:13:58 working
    1:13:58 in
    1:13:58 China
    1:13:58 and
    1:13:58 she
    1:13:59 wrote
    1:13:59 about
    1:13:59 this
    1:13:59 in
    1:14:00 MIT
    1:14:01 technology
    1:14:01 review
    1:14:02 she said
    1:14:02 you need
    1:14:03 to think
    1:14:03 about
    1:14:03 China
    1:14:03 as having
    1:14:04 the
    1:14:04 best
    1:14:04 as well
    1:14:05 as
    1:14:05 the
    1:14:05 worst
    1:14:05 internet
    1:14:06 experience
    1:14:06 in the
    1:14:06 world
    1:14:08 and
    1:14:08 you know
    1:14:08 you think
    1:14:08 about
    1:14:09 it
    1:14:09 with
    1:14:10 you
    1:14:10 think
    1:14:10 of
    1:14:10 the
    1:14:11 worst
    1:14:11 is
    1:14:11 easy
    1:14:12 you know
    1:14:12 the
    1:14:12 great
    1:14:13 firewall
    1:14:13 you
    1:14:13 try to
    1:14:14 search
    1:14:14 for
    1:14:14 what
    1:14:15 happened
    1:14:15 you
    1:14:16 search
    1:14:16 for
    1:14:16 the
    1:14:16 tank
    1:14:17 man
    1:14:17 you
    1:14:17 won’t
    1:14:17 get
    1:14:17 it
    1:14:18 you
    1:14:18 search
    1:14:18 for
    1:14:19 information
    1:14:19 about
    1:14:20 Dalai
    1:14:20 Lama
    1:14:20 and you
    1:14:21 get
    1:14:21 all these
    1:14:21 lies
    1:14:22 about
    1:14:22 him
    1:14:22 search
    1:14:23 for
    1:14:23 things
    1:14:23 about
    1:14:24 Xinjiang
    1:14:24 and it
    1:14:25 makes
    1:14:25 seem like
    1:14:26 it’s a place
    1:14:26 where people
    1:14:26 are happy
    1:14:27 rather than
    1:14:27 massive
    1:14:29 extra legal
    1:14:30 detention
    1:14:31 camps
    1:14:31 and where
    1:14:31 your life
    1:14:31 can be
    1:14:32 ruined
    1:14:32 by
    1:14:34 things
    1:14:34 you have
    1:14:35 no control
    1:14:35 over
    1:14:35 but
    1:14:36 she
    1:14:36 said
    1:14:36 on
    1:14:37 other
    1:14:37 ways
    1:14:37 when
    1:14:37 it
    1:14:37 comes
    1:14:38 to
    1:14:39 consumer
    1:14:40 playing
    1:14:40 to
    1:14:40 your
    1:14:42 pleasures
    1:14:42 and
    1:14:43 things
    1:14:43 it
    1:14:43 was
    1:14:44 really
    1:14:44 advanced
    1:14:44 a lot
    1:14:44 of
    1:14:45 things
    1:14:45 that
    1:14:45 then
    1:14:46 come
    1:14:46 out
    1:14:46 there
    1:14:48 and in
    1:14:48 massive
    1:14:49 numbers
    1:14:49 and I
    1:14:49 remember
    1:14:51 around the
    1:14:51 time that
    1:14:51 I had
    1:14:52 read
    1:14:52 that
    1:14:52 I
    1:14:52 was
    1:14:52 in
    1:14:53 Shanghai
    1:14:53 and
    1:14:54 somebody
    1:14:54 was
    1:14:54 explaining
    1:14:55 it
    1:14:55 to
    1:14:55 me
    1:14:55 they
    1:14:55 were
    1:14:55 talking
    1:14:56 about
    1:14:56 going
    1:14:56 out
    1:14:56 to
    1:14:57 eat
    1:14:57 like
    1:14:57 I
    1:14:57 said
    1:14:58 oh
    1:14:58 we’ve
    1:14:58 got
    1:14:59 such
    1:14:59 and
    1:14:59 such
    1:14:59 and
    1:14:59 I
    1:14:59 said
    1:14:59 oh
    1:15:08 we’ve
    1:15:08 got
    1:15:08 one
    1:15:08 that
    1:15:09 can
    1:15:09 tell
    1:15:09 you
    1:15:10 which
    1:15:10 part
    1:15:10 of
    1:15:10 the
    1:15:11 restaurant
    1:15:11 you
    1:15:11 want
    1:15:11 to
    1:15:11 sit
    1:15:12 in
    1:15:12 because
    1:15:12 there’s
    1:15:12 a
    1:15:13 waiter
    1:15:13 that’s
    1:15:13 in
    1:15:13 a
    1:15:13 really
    1:15:14 bad
    1:15:14 mood
    1:15:14 and
    1:15:14 people
    1:15:15 have
    1:15:15 posted
    1:15:15 enough
    1:15:16 information
    1:15:17 to
    1:15:17 do
    1:15:17 this
    1:15:18 or
    1:15:18 what
    1:15:18 the
    1:15:19 best
    1:15:19 dish
    1:15:19 there
    1:15:20 is
    1:15:20 in
    1:15:21 the
    1:15:21 last
    1:15:21 week
    1:15:22 forget
    1:15:22 about
    1:15:22 these
    1:15:23 slow
    1:15:24 things
    1:15:24 that
    1:15:27 were
    1:15:27 like
    1:15:27 okay
    1:15:28 smart
    1:15:29 city
    1:15:29 and
    1:15:30 controlled
    1:15:30 you
    1:15:30 can
    1:15:31 learn
    1:15:31 things
    1:15:32 about
    1:15:32 ease
    1:15:32 of
    1:15:33 movement
    1:15:33 and
    1:15:33 Singapore
    1:15:34 had
    1:15:34 some
    1:15:34 of
    1:15:34 these
    1:15:35 things
    1:15:35 tested
    1:15:36 too
    1:15:36 you
    1:15:36 had
    1:15:36 way
    1:15:37 before
    1:15:38 you
    1:15:38 move
    1:15:38 you
    1:15:39 go
    1:15:39 into
    1:15:39 an
    1:15:39 underground
    1:15:41 parking
    1:15:42 lot
    1:15:42 now
    1:15:42 in
    1:15:42 the
    1:15:43 US
    1:15:43 and
    1:15:43 you
    1:15:43 find
    1:15:44 out
    1:15:44 whether
    1:15:44 there
    1:15:44 are
    1:15:44 any
    1:15:44 empty
    1:15:45 spaces
    1:15:45 on
    1:15:47 a
    1:15:48 floor
    1:15:48 that
    1:15:48 was
    1:15:49 something
    1:15:49 that
    1:15:49 was
    1:15:49 years
    1:15:50 before
    1:15:51 in
    1:15:51 Singapore
    1:15:52 and
    1:15:53 you
    1:15:53 don’t
    1:15:54 use
    1:15:54 you
    1:15:54 use
    1:15:55 money
    1:15:55 less
    1:15:55 often
    1:15:56 there
    1:15:56 because
    1:15:56 you
    1:15:56 had
    1:15:56 a
    1:15:56 kind
    1:15:57 of
    1:15:57 transponder
    1:15:57 that
    1:15:58 would
    1:15:58 automatically
    1:15:59 pay
    1:15:59 for
    1:15:59 your
    1:16:00 parking
    1:16:00 and
    1:16:00 things
    1:16:01 and
    1:16:01 it
    1:16:01 it
    1:16:02 was
    1:16:02 something
    1:16:02 that
    1:16:02 can
    1:16:02 be
    1:16:03 very
    1:16:03 seductive
    1:16:04 so
    1:16:04 the
    1:16:04 other
    1:16:04 line
    1:16:05 besides
    1:16:05 best
    1:16:05 and
    1:16:05 worst
    1:16:06 internet
    1:16:06 I
    1:16:06 always
    1:16:07 like
    1:16:07 is
    1:16:08 William
    1:16:08 Gibson
    1:16:08 who
    1:16:09 wrote
    1:16:09 one
    1:16:09 one
    1:16:09 of
    1:16:10 the
    1:16:10 other
    1:16:10 important
    1:16:11 dystopian
    1:16:12 novels
    1:16:12 of the
    1:16:12 present
    1:16:13 neuromancer
    1:16:14 he wrote
    1:16:15 a rare
    1:16:15 non
    1:16:15 for him
    1:16:16 non
    1:16:16 fiction
    1:16:17 piece
    1:16:17 about
    1:16:17 Singapore
    1:16:18 where
    1:16:18 he
    1:16:18 referred
    1:16:18 to
    1:16:18 it
    1:16:18 as
    1:16:19 Disneyland
    1:16:19 with
    1:16:19 the
    1:16:19 death
    1:16:20 penalty
    1:16:22 and
    1:16:22 you
    1:16:22 know
    1:16:22 there
    1:16:23 are
    1:16:23 times
    1:16:24 when
    1:16:24 I
    1:16:25 shouldn’t
    1:16:25 laugh
    1:16:25 there
    1:16:26 but
    1:16:27 it is
    1:16:27 it’s
    1:16:27 a
    1:16:27 powerful
    1:16:28 yeah
    1:16:29 he’s
    1:16:29 not
    1:16:30 welcomed
    1:16:30 in
    1:16:30 Singapore
    1:16:31 let’s
    1:16:31 just
    1:16:31 say
    1:16:32 but
    1:16:32 he
    1:16:33 talked
    1:16:33 about
    1:16:33 how
    1:16:34 when
    1:16:34 he
    1:16:34 wanted
    1:16:34 to
    1:16:34 try
    1:16:35 to
    1:16:36 he
    1:16:36 went
    1:16:41 got
    1:16:41 a
    1:16:42 sense
    1:16:42 of
    1:16:42 what
    1:16:42 the
    1:16:43 future
    1:16:43 might
    1:16:44 hold
    1:16:44 so
    1:16:45 the
    1:16:45 dark
    1:16:45 side
    1:16:46 of
    1:16:46 this
    1:16:47 the
    1:16:47 surveillance
    1:16:48 state
    1:16:48 at
    1:16:48 its
    1:16:49 worst
    1:16:49 which
    1:16:49 we
    1:16:50 see
    1:16:50 in
    1:16:51 Xinjiang
    1:16:51 and
    1:16:51 places
    1:16:52 and
    1:16:52 there
    1:16:53 again
    1:16:54 it may
    1:16:54 seem
    1:16:54 like
    1:16:54 I’m
    1:16:54 just
    1:16:55 obsessed
    1:16:55 with
    1:16:56 science
    1:16:57 fiction
    1:16:57 and
    1:16:57 there
    1:16:58 it
    1:16:58 really
    1:16:58 is
    1:16:59 minority
    1:16:59 report
    1:16:59 it’s
    1:17:00 this
    1:17:00 kind
    1:17:00 of
    1:17:00 like
    1:17:02 you
    1:17:02 do
    1:17:02 certain
    1:17:02 kinds
    1:17:02 of
    1:17:03 behaviors
    1:17:03 and
    1:17:03 we’re
    1:17:03 seeing
    1:17:04 this
    1:17:04 other
    1:17:04 places
    1:17:05 too
    1:17:06 we’re
    1:17:06 seeing
    1:17:06 versions
    1:17:07 of it
    1:17:07 in
    1:17:07 the
    1:17:14 so
    1:17:15 in
    1:17:15 Xinjiang
    1:17:16 they
    1:17:16 were
    1:17:17 when
    1:17:17 they
    1:17:17 were
    1:17:17 starting
    1:17:18 to
    1:17:18 round
    1:17:18 people
    1:17:19 up
    1:17:19 there’s
    1:17:19 this
    1:17:20 great
    1:17:20 book
    1:17:21 by
    1:17:21 a
    1:17:22 Uyghur
    1:17:22 poet
    1:17:23 he
    1:17:23 talks
    1:17:23 about
    1:17:24 how
    1:17:25 people
    1:17:25 were
    1:17:25 just
    1:17:25 starting
    1:17:25 to
    1:17:26 disappear
    1:17:26 off
    1:17:26 the
    1:17:26 streets
    1:17:27 and
    1:17:27 they
    1:17:27 were
    1:17:27 being
    1:17:28 accused
    1:17:28 of
    1:17:28 being
    1:17:30 radicalized
    1:17:30 and
    1:17:30 being
    1:17:31 potential
    1:17:32 terrorists
    1:17:32 and
    1:17:33 the
    1:17:34 cues
    1:17:34 could
    1:17:34 be
    1:17:35 something
    1:17:35 like
    1:17:37 somebody
    1:17:37 giving
    1:17:37 up
    1:17:38 smoking
    1:17:39 or
    1:17:39 not
    1:17:39 drinking
    1:17:40 alcohol
    1:17:40 because
    1:17:41 that
    1:17:41 was
    1:17:41 seen
    1:17:42 as
    1:17:42 something
    1:17:42 that
    1:17:43 sometimes
    1:17:43 went
    1:17:43 along
    1:17:44 with
    1:17:44 becoming
    1:17:45 more
    1:17:47 devoted
    1:17:48 to
    1:17:48 Islam
    1:17:48 and
    1:17:49 more
    1:17:49 devoted
    1:17:49 to
    1:17:49 something
    1:17:50 a
    1:17:50 particular
    1:17:50 version
    1:17:51 of
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    1:18:14 also
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    1:18:18 that
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    1:18:21 life
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    1:18:22 parts
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    1:18:23 China
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    1:18:26 think
    1:18:26 the
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    1:18:34 States
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    1:18:38 governments
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    1:18:41 tech
    1:18:41 and
    1:18:41 what
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    1:19:02 China
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    1:19:03 1989
    1:19:05 was
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    1:19:05 Chinese
    1:19:06 Communist Party
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    1:19:07 power
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    1:19:09 Soviet
    1:19:10 Union
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    1:19:11 Bloc
    1:19:11 was
    1:19:12 falling
    1:19:12 apart
    1:19:14 they
    1:19:14 knew
    1:19:14 that
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    1:19:15 reason
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    1:19:20 think
    1:19:20 you
    1:19:20 have
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    1:19:22 in
    1:19:22 Eastern
    1:19:23 Europe
    1:19:23 was
    1:19:24 partly
    1:19:24 about
    1:19:25 ideals
    1:19:26 and
    1:19:26 thirst
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    1:19:28 also
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    1:19:29 people
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    1:19:30 Germans
    1:19:30 knew
    1:19:30 that
    1:19:31 West
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    1:19:58 stage
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    1:20:19 movies
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    1:20:50 things
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    1:20:51 happening
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    1:20:52 Chinese
    1:20:53 Communist
    1:20:53 Party
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    1:20:55 isn’t
    1:20:55 booming
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    1:20:56 it was
    1:20:57 before
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    1:21:03 before
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    1:21:08 rates
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    1:21:11 Party
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    1:21:24 you
    1:21:24 more
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    1:21:26 more
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    1:21:32 globally
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    1:21:34 a new
    1:21:35 kind
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    1:21:37 the
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    1:21:37 of
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    1:21:39 choices
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    1:21:39 mean
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    1:21:40 idea
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    1:21:42 post
    1:21:42 Tiananmen
    1:21:43 generation
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    1:21:44 promised
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    1:21:48 eyes
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    1:21:49 state
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    1:21:52 globally
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    1:21:55 or
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    1:21:57 companies
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    1:21:58 different
    1:21:59 moment
    1:21:59 what does
    1:21:59 it mean
    1:22:00 to say
    1:22:00 you have
    1:22:00 more
    1:22:01 choices
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    1:22:02 like
    1:22:02 you have
    1:22:02 two
    1:22:02 knobs
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    1:22:03 1984
    1:22:04 one is
    1:22:04 brave
    1:22:04 new
    1:22:04 world
    1:22:05 at first
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    1:22:06 new
    1:22:06 world
    1:22:07 more
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    1:22:09 they’re
    1:22:10 turning
    1:22:10 up
    1:22:10 the
    1:22:10 1984
    1:22:11 keeping
    1:22:11 the
    1:22:12 choices
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    1:22:12 turning
    1:22:13 up
    1:22:13 the
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    1:22:14 more
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    1:22:16 make
    1:22:17 have
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    1:22:19 sense
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    1:22:22 been
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    1:22:23 about
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    1:22:24 in
    1:22:24 censorship
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    1:22:26 predate
    1:22:27 Xi Jinping
    1:22:28 is
    1:22:29 Xi Jinping
    1:22:29 a part
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    1:22:32 is
    1:22:32 that
    1:22:32 dynamic
    1:22:33 what
    1:22:33 role
    1:22:33 does
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    1:22:34 Jinping
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    1:22:35 in
    1:22:36 what
    1:22:36 China
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    1:22:39 say
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    1:22:41 question
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    1:22:44 two
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    1:22:47 effect
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    1:22:48 bunch
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    1:22:55 Xi
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    1:23:00 answers
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    1:23:02 book
    1:23:02 I
    1:23:03 really
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    1:23:05 of
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    1:23:14 changes
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    1:23:15 it
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    1:23:17 2010s
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    1:23:18 and
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    1:23:19 think
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    1:23:22 Jinping’s
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    1:23:24 on the
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    1:23:27 spaces
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    1:23:28 for
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    1:23:30 of
    1:23:30 ways
    1:23:30 of
    1:23:31 being
    1:23:32 Chinese
    1:23:32 within
    1:23:32 the
    1:23:32 country
    1:23:34 and
    1:23:35 this
    1:23:35 goes
    1:23:35 against
    1:23:36 the
    1:23:36 grain
    1:23:36 of
    1:23:36 a
    1:23:37 pattern
    1:23:38 in
    1:23:38 the
    1:23:38 sort
    1:23:38 of
    1:23:39 post
    1:23:39 Tiananmen
    1:23:40 period
    1:23:41 of
    1:23:41 allowing
    1:23:42 more
    1:23:42 space
    1:23:42 for
    1:23:42 sort
    1:23:43 of
    1:23:43 civil
    1:23:43 society
    1:23:44 but
    1:23:44 also
    1:23:45 allowing
    1:23:45 sort
    1:23:46 of
    1:23:47 way
    1:23:47 Muslims
    1:23:48 felt
    1:23:48 that
    1:23:48 they
    1:23:48 didn’t
    1:23:49 have
    1:23:49 to
    1:23:49 choose
    1:23:50 between
    1:23:50 being
    1:23:51 their
    1:23:51 Muslim
    1:23:52 identity
    1:23:52 and
    1:23:52 their
    1:23:53 Chinese
    1:23:53 identity
    1:23:53 but
    1:23:53 there’s
    1:23:54 more
    1:23:54 and
    1:23:54 more
    1:23:54 of
    1:23:54 a
    1:23:54 kind
    1:23:55 of
    1:23:56 we
    1:23:57 see
    1:23:57 this
    1:23:57 in
    1:23:57 Xi
    1:23:58 Jinping
    1:23:58 becoming
    1:23:59 impatient
    1:23:59 with
    1:24:00 Hong
    1:24:00 Kong
    1:24:01 where
    1:24:01 there
    1:24:01 was
    1:24:01 a
    1:24:01 way
    1:24:02 of
    1:24:02 which
    1:24:02 okay
    1:24:02 this
    1:24:02 is
    1:24:03 a
    1:24:03 city
    1:24:03 that’s
    1:24:03 part
    1:24:04 of
    1:24:04 the
    1:24:04 PRC
    1:24:05 but
    1:24:05 it
    1:24:05 really
    1:24:06 operates
    1:24:06 very
    1:24:06 differently
    1:24:07 he
    1:24:07 seems
    1:24:07 to
    1:24:08 be
    1:24:10 uncomfortable
    1:24:10 with
    1:24:10 difference
    1:24:11 I guess
    1:24:12 he’s not
    1:24:12 alone
    1:24:12 in
    1:24:13 strong
    1:24:13 men
    1:24:13 this
    1:24:14 way
    1:24:14 of
    1:24:14 sort
    1:24:14 of
    1:24:15 wanting
    1:24:16 to
    1:24:17 impose
    1:24:17 a
    1:24:18 kind
    1:24:18 of
    1:24:18 singular
    1:24:19 vision
    1:24:19 of
    1:24:19 what
    1:24:20 Chinese
    1:24:20 identity
    1:24:21 means
    1:24:21 what
    1:24:22 loyalty
    1:24:23 to
    1:24:23 the
    1:24:24 status
    1:24:24 quo
    1:24:24 means
    1:24:25 and
    1:24:26 so
    1:24:26 there’s
    1:24:26 been
    1:24:26 a
    1:24:26 kind
    1:24:27 of
    1:24:28 tightening
    1:24:28 of
    1:24:28 controls
    1:24:29 over
    1:24:29 all
    1:24:29 the
    1:24:30 borders
    1:24:31 and
    1:24:32 even
    1:24:32 things
    1:24:32 one
    1:24:33 thing
    1:24:33 she
    1:24:33 reported
    1:24:34 on
    1:24:34 was
    1:24:34 Mongolia
    1:24:35 and
    1:24:35 inner
    1:24:36 Mongolia
    1:24:37 it’s
    1:24:37 been
    1:24:37 seen
    1:24:38 as
    1:24:38 an
    1:24:38 unproblematic
    1:24:39 kind
    1:24:39 of
    1:24:39 frontier
    1:24:40 area
    1:24:40 and
    1:24:41 who
    1:24:41 cares
    1:24:41 if
    1:24:41 there
    1:24:41 was
    1:24:42 some
    1:24:43 revival
    1:24:43 of
    1:24:44 Mongolian
    1:24:44 language
    1:24:44 but
    1:24:45 under
    1:24:45 Xi
    1:24:45 there’s
    1:24:45 been
    1:24:46 a
    1:24:47 less
    1:24:48 patience
    1:24:48 with
    1:24:49 those
    1:24:49 kinds
    1:24:50 of
    1:24:50 difference
    1:24:50 he’s
    1:24:51 been
    1:24:53 there’s
    1:24:53 been
    1:24:53 more
    1:24:54 of a
    1:24:54 resurgence
    1:24:55 of
    1:24:55 patriarchy
    1:24:56 all
    1:24:56 kinds
    1:24:56 of
    1:24:56 things
    1:24:56 have
    1:24:57 happened
    1:24:57 under
    1:24:57 him
    1:24:58 but
    1:25:00 how
    1:25:00 much
    1:25:00 is
    1:25:00 it
    1:25:00 just
    1:25:01 him
    1:25:01 or
    1:25:01 how
    1:25:01 much
    1:25:01 is
    1:25:02 it
    1:25:02 also
    1:25:04 a
    1:25:04 kind
    1:25:04 of
    1:25:05 mood
    1:25:05 or
    1:25:05 group
    1:25:06 within
    1:25:06 the
    1:25:06 party
    1:25:07 some
    1:25:07 of
    1:25:07 these
    1:25:08 trends
    1:25:08 I
    1:25:08 think
    1:25:09 began
    1:25:09 before
    1:25:10 he
    1:25:10 took
    1:25:10 power
    1:25:11 in
    1:25:11 late
    1:25:11 2012
    1:25:12 I
    1:25:13 think
    1:25:13 really
    1:25:14 my
    1:25:14 own
    1:25:15 feeling
    1:25:15 going
    1:25:15 to
    1:25:16 China
    1:25:17 fairly
    1:25:17 often
    1:25:18 from
    1:25:18 the
    1:25:19 mid
    1:25:20 1990s
    1:25:20 till
    1:25:20 about
    1:25:21 2018
    1:25:23 was
    1:25:23 that
    1:25:23 until
    1:25:25 2008
    1:25:26 the year
    1:25:26 of the
    1:25:26 Olympics
    1:25:27 year
    1:25:28 each
    1:25:29 trip
    1:25:29 it would
    1:25:29 feel
    1:25:29 like
    1:25:30 oh
    1:25:30 there’s
    1:25:30 just
    1:25:31 more
    1:25:31 space
    1:25:32 there’s
    1:25:32 more
    1:25:32 breathing
    1:25:33 room
    1:25:33 for
    1:25:34 you know
    1:25:34 it’s
    1:25:35 not
    1:25:35 becoming
    1:25:35 a
    1:25:35 liberal
    1:25:36 democracy
    1:25:37 but
    1:25:38 I
    1:25:38 would
    1:25:38 notice
    1:25:39 things
    1:25:39 that
    1:25:39 felt
    1:25:39 like
    1:25:39 I’m
    1:25:40 surprised
    1:25:40 that
    1:25:40 that
    1:25:41 happens
    1:25:42 that
    1:25:42 people
    1:25:44 felt
    1:25:44 less
    1:25:45 worried
    1:25:45 about
    1:25:45 what
    1:25:45 they
    1:25:45 were
    1:25:46 saying
    1:25:46 and
    1:25:46 what
    1:25:46 they
    1:25:46 were
    1:25:47 doing
    1:25:49 that
    1:25:49 kind
    1:25:49 of
    1:25:49 trend
    1:25:50 line
    1:25:50 up
    1:25:50 until
    1:25:50 about
    1:25:51 2008
    1:25:52 but
    1:25:52 from
    1:25:53 the
    1:25:54 Olympics
    1:25:55 and
    1:25:55 then
    1:25:56 the
    1:25:57 financial
    1:25:58 crisis
    1:25:58 after
    1:25:59 that
    1:26:00 the
    1:26:00 Chinese
    1:26:01 Communist
    1:26:01 Party
    1:26:01 felt
    1:26:02 I
    1:26:02 guess
    1:26:02 more
    1:26:03 it’s
    1:26:03 still
    1:26:03 insecure
    1:26:03 but
    1:26:03 it
    1:26:04 felt
    1:26:04 cockier
    1:26:04 in
    1:26:05 some
    1:26:05 ways
    1:26:05 and
    1:26:05 you
    1:26:06 had
    1:26:07 like
    1:26:07 okay
    1:26:08 maybe
    1:26:09 we
    1:26:09 can
    1:26:10 start
    1:26:11 asserting
    1:26:11 more
    1:26:11 control
    1:26:11 over
    1:26:12 things
    1:26:12 so
    1:26:13 I
    1:26:13 think
    1:26:13 that’s
    1:26:13 been
    1:26:14 stronger
    1:26:14 under
    1:26:15 Xi
    1:26:15 Jinping’s
    1:26:15 time
    1:26:15 and
    1:26:16 power
    1:26:16 and
    1:26:16 he
    1:26:16 was
    1:26:17 already
    1:26:17 the
    1:26:17 designated
    1:26:18 successor
    1:26:19 by
    1:26:20 2008
    1:26:20 he
    1:26:20 was
    1:26:21 in
    1:26:21 charge
    1:26:22 of
    1:26:25 security
    1:26:25 for the
    1:26:26 Olympics
    1:26:26 and
    1:26:27 the
    1:26:27 Olympics
    1:26:27 was
    1:26:27 supposed
    1:26:28 to be
    1:26:28 a
    1:26:28 moment
    1:26:30 possibly
    1:26:30 of
    1:26:30 more
    1:26:31 opening
    1:26:31 up
    1:26:32 because
    1:26:32 when
    1:26:33 Seoul
    1:26:33 hosted
    1:26:33 the
    1:26:34 Olympics
    1:26:34 South
    1:26:35 Korea
    1:26:35 became
    1:26:35 a
    1:26:36 less
    1:26:36 tightly
    1:26:37 controlled
    1:26:37 right
    1:26:37 wing
    1:26:39 dictatorship
    1:26:39 and
    1:26:40 moved
    1:26:40 toward
    1:26:40 democracy
    1:26:41 and
    1:26:41 some
    1:26:41 people
    1:26:41 were
    1:26:41 hoping
    1:26:42 the
    1:26:42 Olympics
    1:26:43 might
    1:26:43 move
    1:26:43 China
    1:26:44 that way
    1:26:44 and it
    1:26:44 went
    1:26:44 quite
    1:26:45 the
    1:26:45 opposite
    1:26:46 you
    1:26:46 mentioned
    1:26:46 that
    1:26:47 we
    1:26:47 don’t
    1:26:47 know
    1:26:48 the
    1:26:48 degree
    1:26:49 to
    1:26:50 which
    1:26:50 this
    1:26:51 change
    1:26:51 has to
    1:26:51 do
    1:26:51 with
    1:26:51 Xi
    1:26:52 Jinping
    1:26:52 or
    1:26:52 the
    1:26:53 party
    1:26:53 apparatus
    1:26:54 and
    1:26:54 that
    1:26:56 question
    1:26:57 going
    1:26:57 back to
    1:26:58 Confucius
    1:26:58 of hierarchy
    1:26:59 and how
    1:26:59 does
    1:26:59 the
    1:27:00 power
    1:27:01 within
    1:27:01 this
    1:27:02 very
    1:27:02 strict
    1:27:03 one
    1:27:03 party
    1:27:03 state
    1:27:04 work
    1:27:05 what
    1:27:06 can we
    1:27:06 say
    1:27:06 what do
    1:27:06 we know
    1:27:07 about the
    1:27:07 structure
    1:27:09 of this
    1:27:09 communist
    1:27:09 party
    1:27:10 apparatus
    1:27:11 how much
    1:27:12 internal
    1:27:12 power
    1:27:13 struggle
    1:27:13 is there
    1:27:13 how much
    1:27:14 power
    1:27:14 does
    1:27:14 Xi Jinping
    1:27:15 actually
    1:27:15 have
    1:27:16 is there
    1:27:17 any
    1:27:17 insight
    1:27:18 we have
    1:27:18 into
    1:27:18 the
    1:27:19 system
    1:27:20 so
    1:27:20 james
    1:27:20 james
    1:27:21 paulmer
    1:27:21 who
    1:27:21 worked
    1:27:22 in
    1:27:22 beijing
    1:27:23 as a
    1:27:23 journalist
    1:27:23 and
    1:27:24 now
    1:27:24 is an
    1:27:25 editor
    1:27:25 at
    1:27:25 foreign
    1:27:26 policy
    1:27:26 wrote
    1:27:26 an
    1:27:26 important
    1:27:27 piece
    1:27:28 a few
    1:27:28 years
    1:27:28 ago
    1:27:28 about
    1:27:29 just
    1:27:29 we
    1:27:29 should
    1:27:30 really
    1:27:30 be
    1:27:30 straight
    1:27:31 about
    1:27:31 what a
    1:27:31 black
    1:27:32 box
    1:27:33 the
    1:27:33 Chinese
    1:27:34 elite
    1:27:35 politics
    1:27:35 are
    1:27:35 and
    1:27:36 really
    1:27:37 not
    1:27:37 try to
    1:27:38 pretend
    1:27:38 we know
    1:27:38 more
    1:27:38 than
    1:27:38 we
    1:27:39 do
    1:27:40 we
    1:27:40 did
    1:27:41 used
    1:27:42 to
    1:27:42 have
    1:27:42 more
    1:27:42 of
    1:27:42 a
    1:27:42 sense
    1:27:42 of
    1:27:43 these
    1:27:43 kind
    1:27:43 of
    1:27:44 ideological
    1:27:44 factions
    1:27:45 but
    1:27:46 also
    1:27:46 partly
    1:27:46 about
    1:27:47 different
    1:27:47 views
    1:27:48 of
    1:27:48 how
    1:27:48 much
    1:27:49 tinkering
    1:27:49 there
    1:27:49 should
    1:27:50 be
    1:27:50 with
    1:27:50 the
    1:27:50 economy
    1:27:51 and
    1:27:51 things
    1:27:51 like
    1:27:52 that
    1:27:52 and
    1:27:52 they
    1:27:53 were
    1:27:53 also
    1:27:53 basic
    1:27:54 partly
    1:27:54 based
    1:27:55 on
    1:27:56 personalities
    1:27:56 and
    1:27:57 personal
    1:27:57 ties
    1:27:58 but we
    1:27:58 did
    1:27:58 have
    1:27:59 a
    1:27:59 sense
    1:27:59 you
    1:27:59 could
    1:27:59 sort
    1:28:00 of
    1:28:00 map
    1:28:00 out
    1:28:01 these
    1:28:01 kinds
    1:28:01 of
    1:28:02 rival
    1:28:03 power
    1:28:04 bases
    1:28:04 and
    1:28:05 things
    1:28:05 and
    1:28:06 we
    1:28:06 just
    1:28:06 have
    1:28:06 much
    1:28:06 less
    1:28:06 of
    1:28:07 a
    1:28:07 sense
    1:28:07 of
    1:28:07 that
    1:28:07 under
    1:28:08 Xi
    1:28:08 Jinping
    1:28:08 it’s
    1:28:08 very
    1:28:09 hard
    1:28:09 to
    1:28:09 know
    1:28:09 other
    1:28:10 than
    1:28:10 the
    1:28:11 small
    1:28:11 group
    1:28:12 around
    1:28:12 him
    1:28:13 how
    1:28:13 it
    1:28:13 works
    1:28:13 we
    1:28:14 don’t
    1:28:14 have
    1:28:14 a
    1:28:15 major
    1:28:15 defector
    1:28:16 who
    1:28:16 says
    1:28:16 yeah
    1:28:17 this
    1:28:17 is
    1:28:17 how
    1:28:18 this
    1:28:18 is
    1:28:18 how
    1:28:18 Xi
    1:28:19 Jinping
    1:28:19 we
    1:28:19 have
    1:28:19 Xi
    1:28:20 Jinping
    1:28:20 self
    1:28:21 presentation
    1:28:22 and
    1:28:22 a lot
    1:28:23 of
    1:28:23 things
    1:28:23 that
    1:28:23 are
    1:28:25 said
    1:28:25 about
    1:28:25 him
    1:28:26 there
    1:28:26 were
    1:28:26 some
    1:28:26 false
    1:28:27 expectations
    1:28:27 about
    1:28:28 him
    1:28:28 that
    1:28:28 some
    1:28:28 people
    1:28:28 thought
    1:28:29 oh
    1:28:29 he’s
    1:28:29 going
    1:28:29 to
    1:28:29 be
    1:28:30 reformer
    1:28:30 because
    1:28:31 his
    1:28:32 father
    1:28:32 was a
    1:28:33 liberalizing
    1:28:33 figure
    1:28:34 and
    1:28:34 you know
    1:28:34 that
    1:28:35 doesn’t
    1:28:35 work
    1:28:35 that
    1:28:35 way
    1:28:36 and
    1:28:36 he
    1:28:36 does
    1:28:36 seem
    1:28:37 to
    1:28:37 care
    1:28:37 about
    1:28:38 orderliness
    1:28:38 he does
    1:28:38 seem
    1:28:39 to care
    1:28:39 about
    1:28:40 certain
    1:28:40 things
    1:28:40 he wants
    1:28:41 to present
    1:28:41 himself
    1:28:42 as a
    1:28:42 kind
    1:28:43 of
    1:28:43 scholarly
    1:28:44 figure
    1:28:44 in touch
    1:28:44 with
    1:28:45 China’s
    1:28:45 deep
    1:28:45 past
    1:28:47 we
    1:28:47 know
    1:28:47 he’s
    1:28:47 a
    1:28:48 strong
    1:28:48 nationalist
    1:28:49 and
    1:28:49 a
    1:28:49 kind
    1:28:49 of
    1:28:50 cultural
    1:28:50 nationalist
    1:28:50 as
    1:28:51 well
    1:28:51 as
    1:28:53 political
    1:28:53 nationalist
    1:28:53 but
    1:28:54 beyond
    1:28:54 that
    1:28:54 we
    1:28:55 don’t
    1:28:55 have
    1:28:55 that
    1:28:55 much
    1:28:56 of a
    1:28:56 sense
    1:28:56 of
    1:28:56 what
    1:28:57 makes
    1:28:57 him
    1:28:58 tick
    1:28:59 we
    1:28:59 get
    1:28:59 little
    1:29:00 hints
    1:29:01 you know
    1:29:01 there was
    1:29:02 a
    1:29:02 secret
    1:29:02 speech
    1:29:03 where
    1:29:03 he
    1:29:03 talked
    1:29:03 about
    1:29:04 that
    1:29:04 leaked
    1:29:04 out
    1:29:04 that
    1:29:04 he
    1:29:06 talked
    1:29:06 about
    1:29:06 how
    1:29:07 the
    1:29:07 Soviet
    1:29:07 Union
    1:29:08 had
    1:29:08 collapsed
    1:29:09 because
    1:29:09 people
    1:29:09 didn’t
    1:29:10 the
    1:29:10 leadership
    1:29:11 didn’t
    1:29:11 pay
    1:29:11 enough
    1:29:11 attention
    1:29:12 to
    1:29:12 ideology
    1:29:13 and
    1:29:13 he
    1:29:16 manly
    1:29:16 enough
    1:29:17 to
    1:29:17 keep
    1:29:17 control
    1:29:18 so
    1:29:19 he
    1:29:20 I
    1:29:21 imagine
    1:29:21 if
    1:29:21 he
    1:29:21 and
    1:29:22 Putin
    1:29:22 ever
    1:29:22 have
    1:29:22 a
    1:29:23 kind
    1:29:23 of
    1:29:24 heart
    1:29:24 to
    1:29:24 heart
    1:29:25 conversation
    1:29:25 it’s
    1:29:26 one
    1:29:26 thing
    1:29:26 they’d
    1:29:27 find
    1:29:27 to
    1:29:27 agree
    1:29:27 on
    1:29:27 is
    1:29:28 this
    1:29:28 sort
    1:29:28 of
    1:29:28 distaste
    1:29:29 for
    1:29:29 Gorbachev
    1:29:30 this
    1:29:30 feeling
    1:29:31 that
    1:29:31 Gorbachev
    1:29:31 was
    1:29:32 that
    1:29:32 was
    1:29:32 the
    1:29:32 wrong
    1:29:32 way
    1:29:32 to
    1:29:33 do
    1:29:33 things
    1:29:33 not
    1:29:34 manly
    1:29:34 enough
    1:29:35 yeah
    1:29:35 to
    1:29:36 not
    1:29:37 strong
    1:29:37 enough
    1:29:37 about
    1:29:38 you know
    1:29:38 really
    1:29:39 keeping
    1:29:39 control
    1:29:39 and
    1:29:40 you know
    1:29:40 for
    1:29:40 Putin
    1:29:40 it
    1:29:40 would
    1:29:46 there
    1:29:46 is a
    1:29:47 bit
    1:29:47 of
    1:29:47 being
    1:29:47 haunted
    1:29:48 by
    1:29:48 what
    1:29:48 happened
    1:29:49 to
    1:29:49 the
    1:29:49 Soviet
    1:29:49 Union
    1:29:50 and
    1:29:51 we’re
    1:29:51 not
    1:29:51 I’m
    1:29:52 not
    1:29:52 going
    1:29:52 to
    1:29:52 be
    1:29:52 the
    1:29:52 leader
    1:29:53 who
    1:29:54 sees
    1:29:55 the
    1:29:56 diminishment
    1:29:57 of
    1:29:58 this
    1:30:00 landmass
    1:30:00 that was
    1:30:00 in a
    1:30:00 sense
    1:30:01 rebuilt
    1:30:02 over
    1:30:02 time
    1:30:03 for
    1:30:04 Mao
    1:30:04 and
    1:30:04 then
    1:30:05 Deng Xiaoping
    1:30:06 you know
    1:30:06 you have
    1:30:07 the
    1:30:08 story
    1:30:08 a very
    1:30:09 powerful
    1:30:09 story
    1:30:09 about
    1:30:09 the
    1:30:10 Chinese
    1:30:10 past
    1:30:10 that
    1:30:10 the
    1:30:11 Chinese
    1:30:11 Communist
    1:30:11 Party
    1:30:11 makes
    1:30:12 a lot
    1:30:12 out
    1:30:12 of
    1:30:14 but
    1:30:14 the
    1:30:14 Chiang
    1:30:14 Kai
    1:30:15 Shack
    1:30:15 the
    1:30:16 Nationalist
    1:30:16 Party
    1:30:16 who was
    1:30:17 Mao’s
    1:30:17 great
    1:30:17 rival
    1:30:18 also
    1:30:18 made
    1:30:18 a lot
    1:30:18 out
    1:30:19 of
    1:30:19 and
    1:30:19 it
    1:30:20 has
    1:30:20 a
    1:30:20 partial
    1:30:21 basis
    1:30:21 in
    1:30:21 fact
    1:30:21 was
    1:30:22 that
    1:30:22 from
    1:30:22 the
    1:30:22 middle
    1:30:23 of
    1:30:23 the
    1:30:23 19th
    1:30:23 century
    1:30:23 to
    1:30:24 the
    1:30:24 middle
    1:30:24 of
    1:30:24 the
    1:30:24 20th
    1:30:25 century
    1:30:27 China
    1:30:27 which
    1:30:27 had
    1:30:27 been
    1:30:27 the
    1:30:28 strong
    1:30:28 force
    1:30:28 in
    1:30:28 the
    1:30:29 world
    1:30:29 got
    1:30:29 bullied
    1:30:30 and
    1:30:30 nibbled
    1:30:31 away
    1:30:31 at
    1:30:31 by
    1:30:31 foreign
    1:30:32 powers
    1:30:33 and
    1:30:34 it’s
    1:30:34 important
    1:30:34 to
    1:30:34 realize
    1:30:35 there
    1:30:35 are
    1:30:35 elements
    1:30:42 and
    1:30:43 the
    1:30:43 reason
    1:30:43 why
    1:30:44 my
    1:30:44 party
    1:30:44 deserves
    1:30:45 to
    1:30:45 rule
    1:30:45 is
    1:30:45 because
    1:30:45 it
    1:30:46 can
    1:30:46 reassert
    1:30:47 China’s
    1:30:48 place
    1:30:48 in the
    1:30:49 world
    1:30:49 and both
    1:30:49 the
    1:30:50 Nationalist
    1:30:50 Party
    1:30:51 and the
    1:30:51 Communist
    1:30:52 Party
    1:30:54 predicated
    1:30:54 themselves
    1:30:55 on this
    1:30:55 kind of
    1:30:56 nationalistic
    1:30:56 story
    1:30:57 of
    1:30:58 being
    1:30:59 in a
    1:30:59 position
    1:30:59 to
    1:30:59 prevent
    1:31:00 that
    1:31:00 from
    1:31:00 happening
    1:31:00 again
    1:31:01 this
    1:31:01 is
    1:31:01 a
    1:31:02 bit
    1:31:02 of
    1:31:02 a
    1:31:02 tricky
    1:31:03 question
    1:31:03 but
    1:31:04 is
    1:31:04 it
    1:31:05 safe
    1:31:06 for
    1:31:07 journalists
    1:31:09 for
    1:31:09 folks
    1:31:09 who
    1:31:09 write
    1:31:10 excellent
    1:31:10 books
    1:31:11 about
    1:31:11 the
    1:31:12 topic
    1:31:12 to
    1:31:13 travel
    1:31:13 to
    1:31:14 China
    1:31:14 I
    1:31:15 think
    1:31:15 there
    1:31:15 are
    1:31:15 all
    1:31:15 kinds
    1:31:15 of
    1:31:16 different
    1:31:16 things
    1:31:16 about
    1:31:17 safety
    1:31:17 or
    1:31:17 not
    1:31:17 I
    1:31:18 think
    1:31:18 until
    1:31:19 recently
    1:31:19 at
    1:31:19 least
    1:31:20 the
    1:31:21 people
    1:31:21 who
    1:31:21 were
    1:31:22 most
    1:31:22 vulnerable
    1:31:23 were
    1:31:24 people
    1:31:24 of
    1:31:25 Chinese
    1:31:25 descent
    1:31:27 people
    1:31:27 originally
    1:31:27 from
    1:31:28 China
    1:31:28 who
    1:31:28 had
    1:31:28 gone
    1:31:29 abroad
    1:31:29 or
    1:31:30 even
    1:31:30 people
    1:31:31 who
    1:31:31 were
    1:31:33 Chinese
    1:31:33 Americans
    1:31:33 who
    1:31:34 went
    1:31:34 there
    1:31:34 there
    1:31:34 was
    1:31:35 a
    1:31:36 higher
    1:31:37 expectation
    1:31:38 that
    1:31:38 they
    1:31:38 should
    1:31:39 be
    1:31:39 on
    1:31:40 board
    1:31:40 so
    1:31:40 you
    1:31:40 had
    1:31:41 early
    1:31:42 cases
    1:31:42 my
    1:31:42 friend
    1:31:43 Melissa
    1:31:43 Chan
    1:31:43 was
    1:31:43 an
    1:31:44 early
    1:31:44 person
    1:31:45 kicked
    1:31:45 out
    1:31:45 when
    1:31:46 she
    1:31:46 was
    1:31:46 working
    1:31:46 for
    1:31:47 Al Jazeera
    1:31:48 and
    1:31:48 reporting
    1:31:48 on
    1:31:49 Xinjiang
    1:31:50 so
    1:31:50 that’s
    1:31:50 one
    1:31:50 kind
    1:31:50 of
    1:31:51 person
    1:31:51 who
    1:31:51 was
    1:31:51 vulnerable
    1:31:52 because
    1:31:52 of
    1:31:52 this
    1:31:54 expectation
    1:31:54 that
    1:31:54 they
    1:31:55 should
    1:31:55 be
    1:31:55 somehow
    1:31:56 more
    1:31:56 loyal
    1:31:57 another
    1:31:57 kind
    1:31:58 of
    1:31:58 person
    1:31:58 who
    1:31:58 was
    1:31:59 vulnerable
    1:31:59 or
    1:31:59 this
    1:32:00 case
    1:32:00 more
    1:32:01 likely
    1:32:01 to be
    1:32:01 blocked
    1:32:01 from
    1:32:02 China
    1:32:03 they
    1:32:04 there’s
    1:32:04 a
    1:32:05 the
    1:32:05 communist
    1:32:05 party
    1:32:06 is
    1:32:07 particularly
    1:32:07 concerned
    1:32:08 about
    1:32:08 people
    1:32:09 from
    1:32:09 outside
    1:32:09 of
    1:32:10 China
    1:32:10 who
    1:32:10 are
    1:32:11 amplifying
    1:32:11 the
    1:32:11 voices
    1:32:12 of
    1:32:13 people
    1:32:13 within
    1:32:14 China
    1:32:14 or
    1:32:14 exiles
    1:32:15 from
    1:32:15 China
    1:32:16 who
    1:32:16 the
    1:32:16 government
    1:32:16 would
    1:32:16 like
    1:32:17 to
    1:32:17 silence
    1:32:19 so
    1:32:19 the
    1:32:19 Dalai
    1:32:20 Lama
    1:32:20 you
    1:32:20 had
    1:32:21 scholars
    1:32:21 who
    1:32:21 worked
    1:32:21 on
    1:32:21 Tibet
    1:32:22 and
    1:32:22 had
    1:32:23 connections
    1:32:23 to
    1:32:23 Dalai
    1:32:23 Lama
    1:32:23 where
    1:32:25 early
    1:32:25 people
    1:32:25 to have
    1:32:25 trouble
    1:32:26 going
    1:32:26 to
    1:32:26 the
    1:32:27 PRC
    1:32:27 then
    1:32:28 scholars
    1:32:29 who
    1:32:29 worked
    1:32:29 on
    1:32:30 Xinjiang
    1:32:30 and
    1:32:31 were
    1:32:31 connected
    1:32:32 to
    1:32:32 Uyghurs
    1:32:33 but
    1:32:33 there
    1:32:33 also
    1:32:34 were
    1:32:34 people
    1:32:34 who
    1:32:35 were
    1:32:36 personally
    1:32:36 connected
    1:32:37 to
    1:32:38 dissidents
    1:32:38 or
    1:32:38 exiles
    1:32:39 who
    1:32:39 would
    1:32:41 amplify
    1:32:42 their
    1:32:42 voices
    1:32:42 or
    1:32:43 translate
    1:32:43 their
    1:32:43 work
    1:32:44 would
    1:32:44 promote
    1:32:45 them
    1:32:45 that
    1:32:47 then
    1:32:47 it
    1:32:47 wasn’t
    1:32:48 about
    1:32:49 danger
    1:32:49 if
    1:32:49 you
    1:32:49 got
    1:32:50 in
    1:32:50 China
    1:32:50 but
    1:32:50 you
    1:32:50 were
    1:32:50 more
    1:32:50 likely
    1:32:51 to
    1:32:51 be
    1:32:51 denied
    1:32:51 a
    1:32:51 visa
    1:32:52 if
    1:32:52 you
    1:32:52 were
    1:32:53 the
    1:32:53 kind
    1:32:54 of
    1:32:54 person
    1:32:54 who
    1:32:54 was
    1:32:54 doing
    1:32:55 that
    1:32:56 so
    1:32:56 I
    1:32:57 wrote
    1:32:57 critical
    1:32:59 op-eds
    1:32:59 about
    1:32:59 the
    1:32:59 Chinese
    1:33:00 Communist
    1:33:00 Party
    1:33:01 I
    1:33:01 published
    1:33:02 them
    1:33:02 in
    1:33:02 some
    1:33:02 high
    1:33:03 profile
    1:33:03 places
    1:33:04 I
    1:33:04 read
    1:33:05 a lot
    1:33:05 about
    1:33:05 Tiananmen
    1:33:06 I
    1:33:06 read
    1:33:06 about
    1:33:06 human
    1:33:07 rights
    1:33:07 issues
    1:33:07 all
    1:33:08 that
    1:33:08 and
    1:33:08 I
    1:33:08 kept
    1:33:09 getting
    1:33:09 visas
    1:33:09 to
    1:33:09 go
    1:33:09 to
    1:33:10 China
    1:33:11 I
    1:33:11 testified
    1:33:12 to
    1:33:12 a
    1:33:12 congressional
    1:33:13 executive
    1:33:13 joint
    1:33:14 committee
    1:33:14 on
    1:33:14 China
    1:33:14 about
    1:33:15 the
    1:33:15 Tiananmen
    1:33:16 protests
    1:33:17 on the
    1:33:17 25th
    1:33:18 anniversary
    1:33:18 of it
    1:33:18 and
    1:33:19 some
    1:33:19 people
    1:33:19 said
    1:33:19 that’s
    1:33:19 the
    1:33:20 kind
    1:33:20 of
    1:33:20 thing
    1:33:20 that
    1:33:21 would
    1:33:21 lead
    1:33:21 to
    1:33:21 you
    1:33:21 not
    1:33:22 getting
    1:33:22 a
    1:33:22 visa
    1:33:22 I
    1:33:22 got
    1:33:23 a
    1:33:23 visa
    1:33:23 right
    1:33:23 after
    1:33:24 that
    1:33:25 now
    1:33:25 I
    1:33:25 think
    1:33:25 it
    1:33:25 might
    1:33:26 be
    1:33:26 different
    1:33:26 now
    1:33:27 some
    1:33:27 of
    1:33:27 these
    1:33:28 expectations
    1:33:29 have been
    1:33:29 changed
    1:33:29 there
    1:33:30 have
    1:33:30 been
    1:33:30 people
    1:33:30 who’ve
    1:33:31 been
    1:33:32 very
    1:33:33 surprisingly
    1:33:33 gotten
    1:33:34 in
    1:33:34 trouble
    1:33:35 these
    1:33:35 two
    1:33:36 Canadians
    1:33:36 who
    1:33:36 were
    1:33:37 clearly
    1:33:37 it was a
    1:33:38 tit
    1:33:38 for
    1:33:39 tat
    1:33:39 partly
    1:33:39 because
    1:33:40 of
    1:33:40 tech
    1:33:41 mavens
    1:33:42 relative
    1:33:42 being
    1:33:43 held
    1:33:43 in
    1:33:43 Canada
    1:33:43 so
    1:33:44 it
    1:33:44 was
    1:33:44 there
    1:33:44 it
    1:33:44 was
    1:33:45 also
    1:33:45 not
    1:33:45 picking
    1:33:45 a
    1:33:46 fight
    1:33:46 with
    1:33:47 Americans
    1:33:47 but
    1:33:47 there
    1:33:48 were
    1:33:48 certain
    1:33:48 kinds
    1:33:48 of
    1:33:49 things
    1:33:49 that
    1:33:49 you
    1:33:49 could
    1:33:50 map
    1:33:50 out
    1:33:51 what
    1:33:51 was
    1:33:51 the
    1:33:52 riskiest
    1:33:52 thing
    1:33:52 to
    1:33:52 do
    1:33:53 and
    1:33:53 so
    1:33:53 I
    1:33:53 went
    1:33:54 in
    1:33:54 the
    1:33:54 2010s
    1:33:55 having
    1:33:55 written
    1:33:57 forcefully
    1:33:57 about
    1:33:58 Tiananmen
    1:33:59 and I
    1:33:59 didn’t
    1:33:59 feel
    1:34:00 dangerous
    1:34:00 I
    1:34:01 felt
    1:34:01 there
    1:34:02 was
    1:34:02 an
    1:34:02 awareness
    1:34:02 in
    1:34:03 some
    1:34:03 cases
    1:34:03 of
    1:34:03 what
    1:34:04 if
    1:34:04 I
    1:34:04 was
    1:34:04 giving
    1:34:04 a
    1:34:05 public
    1:34:05 talk
    1:34:05 there
    1:34:05 was
    1:34:06 awareness
    1:34:06 of
    1:34:06 what
    1:34:06 it
    1:34:07 was
    1:34:07 there
    1:34:07 was
    1:34:08 sometimes
    1:34:09 you
    1:34:09 didn’t
    1:34:10 want
    1:34:10 to
    1:34:10 get
    1:34:10 your
    1:34:11 host
    1:34:12 who
    1:34:13 had
    1:34:13 brought
    1:34:13 you
    1:34:13 to
    1:34:13 a
    1:34:14 university
    1:34:14 in
    1:34:14 trouble
    1:34:15 by
    1:34:15 saying
    1:34:16 something
    1:34:16 that
    1:34:16 would
    1:34:16 get
    1:34:16 them
    1:34:16 in
    1:34:17 trouble
    1:34:17 I
    1:34:18 think
    1:34:18 it
    1:34:18 was
    1:34:18 often
    1:34:18 that
    1:34:20 you
    1:34:20 were
    1:34:20 more
    1:34:20 vulnerable
    1:34:21 if
    1:34:21 you
    1:34:21 were
    1:34:21 within
    1:34:21 China
    1:34:22 or
    1:34:22 you
    1:34:22 were
    1:34:23 connected
    1:34:23 to
    1:34:23 China
    1:34:23 in
    1:34:23 different
    1:34:24 ways
    1:34:25 for
    1:34:25 me
    1:34:26 it’s
    1:34:26 been
    1:34:26 confusing
    1:34:27 these
    1:34:27 last
    1:34:27 few
    1:34:28 years
    1:34:28 I
    1:34:28 wrote
    1:34:28 one
    1:34:28 piece
    1:34:29 about
    1:34:29 this
    1:34:29 about
    1:34:29 I’m
    1:34:30 not
    1:34:30 going
    1:34:31 to
    1:34:31 any
    1:34:31 part
    1:34:31 of
    1:34:31 the
    1:34:32 PRC
    1:34:32 for
    1:34:33 the
    1:34:33 time
    1:34:33 being
    1:34:34 but
    1:34:34 I
    1:34:34 always
    1:34:34 thought
    1:34:35 that
    1:34:35 Hong
    1:34:35 Kong
    1:34:35 was
    1:34:35 a
    1:34:36 place
    1:34:36 that
    1:34:36 I’d
    1:34:36 be
    1:34:37 free
    1:34:37 to
    1:34:37 go
    1:34:37 even
    1:34:38 if
    1:34:38 things
    1:34:38 got
    1:34:39 difficult
    1:34:39 I
    1:34:39 didn’t
    1:34:39 get
    1:34:39 a
    1:34:39 visa
    1:34:40 for
    1:34:40 the
    1:34:40 mainland
    1:34:40 you
    1:34:40 didn’t
    1:34:40 need
    1:34:41 a
    1:34:41 visa
    1:34:41 for
    1:34:41 Hong
    1:34:41 Kong
    1:34:43 but
    1:34:44 with
    1:34:45 Hong
    1:34:45 Kong
    1:34:47 with
    1:34:47 the
    1:34:47 mainland
    1:34:47 I
    1:34:48 had
    1:34:48 kept
    1:34:48 a
    1:34:49 distance
    1:34:49 from
    1:34:49 the
    1:34:50 dissidents
    1:34:50 that
    1:34:50 I
    1:34:51 was
    1:34:51 writing
    1:34:51 about
    1:34:52 with
    1:34:52 Hong
    1:34:52 Kong
    1:34:52 I
    1:34:53 felt
    1:34:53 that
    1:34:54 these
    1:34:54 rules
    1:34:55 didn’t
    1:34:55 apply
    1:34:56 and
    1:34:56 I
    1:34:56 was
    1:34:57 more
    1:34:57 connected
    1:34:57 to
    1:34:58 them
    1:34:59 more
    1:35:00 friends
    1:35:00 with
    1:35:00 some
    1:35:00 of
    1:35:01 them
    1:35:02 and
    1:35:03 then
    1:35:03 with
    1:35:04 this
    1:35:04 crackdown
    1:35:05 that’s
    1:35:05 come
    1:35:05 on
    1:35:05 Hong
    1:35:05 Kong
    1:35:06 and
    1:35:06 their
    1:35:07 exiles
    1:35:07 from
    1:35:08 Hong
    1:35:08 Kong
    1:35:08 who
    1:35:08 have
    1:35:09 bounties
    1:35:09 on
    1:35:09 their
    1:35:09 heads
    1:35:10 and
    1:35:11 so
    1:35:11 now
    1:35:11 I
    1:35:11 feel
    1:35:12 that
    1:35:12 it’s
    1:35:13 not
    1:35:13 necessarily
    1:35:13 that
    1:35:13 anything
    1:35:13 would
    1:35:14 happen
    1:35:14 to
    1:35:14 me
    1:35:14 if
    1:35:14 I
    1:35:14 went
    1:35:14 to
    1:35:15 Hong
    1:35:15 but
    1:35:15 I
    1:35:15 feel
    1:35:15 I
    1:35:15 would
    1:35:15 be
    1:35:15 very
    1:35:16 closely
    1:35:16 watched
    1:35:17 and
    1:35:17 so
    1:35:18 I
    1:35:18 wouldn’t
    1:35:18 want
    1:35:18 to
    1:35:18 meet
    1:35:18 with
    1:35:18 some
    1:35:19 of
    1:35:19 my
    1:35:20 friends
    1:35:20 there
    1:35:20 who
    1:35:21 aren’t
    1:35:22 this
    1:35:22 high
    1:35:22 profile
    1:35:23 so
    1:35:23 I
    1:35:23 don’t
    1:35:23 want
    1:35:23 to
    1:35:24 go
    1:35:24 to
    1:35:24 a
    1:35:24 place
    1:35:25 where
    1:35:26 I
    1:35:26 would
    1:35:27 feel
    1:35:27 that
    1:35:27 I
    1:35:27 was
    1:35:28 toxic
    1:35:28 in
    1:35:28 some
    1:35:28 way
    1:35:29 right
    1:35:30 one
    1:35:30 you’re
    1:35:30 walking
    1:35:31 on
    1:35:31 eggshells
    1:35:31 and
    1:35:32 two
    1:35:32 you
    1:35:32 can
    1:35:32 get
    1:35:32 others
    1:35:32 in
    1:35:33 trouble
    1:35:34 that
    1:35:34 kind
    1:35:35 of
    1:35:35 dynamic
    1:35:35 is
    1:35:36 complicated
    1:35:36 so
    1:35:36 it’s
    1:35:36 fascinating
    1:35:37 that
    1:35:37 Hong
    1:35:37 Kong
    1:35:37 is
    1:35:38 now
    1:35:38 part
    1:35:38 of
    1:35:38 that
    1:35:39 calculus
    1:35:40 so
    1:35:40 I’ve
    1:35:40 gotten
    1:35:40 the
    1:35:41 chance
    1:35:41 to
    1:35:42 speak
    1:35:42 to
    1:35:42 a
    1:35:42 bunch
    1:35:42 of
    1:35:42 world
    1:35:43 leaders
    1:35:43 do you
    1:35:44 think
    1:35:44 it’s
    1:35:44 possible
    1:35:44 that
    1:35:44 I
    1:35:45 would
    1:35:45 be
    1:35:45 able
    1:35:45 to
    1:35:46 do
    1:35:46 an
    1:35:46 interview
    1:35:46 with
    1:35:46 Xi
    1:35:47 Jinping
    1:35:49 if
    1:35:49 you
    1:35:49 do
    1:35:49 I
    1:35:50 would
    1:35:50 I
    1:35:50 would
    1:35:51 be
    1:35:51 very
    1:35:52 pleased
    1:35:52 because
    1:35:52 I
    1:35:52 could
    1:35:53 watch
    1:35:53 that
    1:35:53 interview
    1:35:54 and
    1:35:54 get
    1:35:55 some
    1:35:55 insights
    1:35:56 about
    1:35:57 Xi
    1:35:57 which
    1:35:57 have
    1:35:57 been
    1:35:58 very
    1:35:58 hard
    1:35:58 to
    1:35:58 get
    1:35:58 I
    1:35:58 mean
    1:35:59 they’re
    1:36:00 really
    1:36:01 difficult
    1:36:02 there
    1:36:02 have
    1:36:02 been
    1:36:02 very
    1:36:03 few
    1:36:06 discussions
    1:36:07 he
    1:36:07 doesn’t
    1:36:07 give
    1:36:08 press
    1:36:08 conferences
    1:36:09 there’s
    1:36:09 variety
    1:36:09 of
    1:36:10 things
    1:36:10 and
    1:36:10 this
    1:36:10 is
    1:36:11 different
    1:36:11 from
    1:36:12 some
    1:36:12 of
    1:36:12 his
    1:36:12 predecessors
    1:36:14 Jiang
    1:36:14 Zemin
    1:36:16 famously
    1:36:17 was
    1:36:17 interviewed
    1:36:18 by
    1:36:18 Barbara
    1:36:18 Walters
    1:36:19 and
    1:36:20 asked
    1:36:20 about
    1:36:20 Tiananmen
    1:36:21 and
    1:36:21 he
    1:36:21 tried
    1:36:21 to
    1:36:22 make
    1:36:22 out
    1:36:22 that
    1:36:22 it
    1:36:22 wasn’t
    1:36:22 a
    1:36:23 big
    1:36:23 deal
    1:36:23 you
    1:36:23 know
    1:36:24 there
    1:36:24 were
    1:36:24 a
    1:36:24 variety
    1:36:24 of
    1:36:24 things
    1:36:25 but
    1:36:25 he
    1:36:26 had
    1:36:27 relatively
    1:36:27 spontaneous
    1:36:29 conversations
    1:36:29 I was
    1:36:29 going to
    1:36:29 say
    1:36:30 he’s
    1:36:30 the only
    1:36:31 Chinese
    1:36:31 leader
    1:36:31 I’ve
    1:36:32 met
    1:36:33 but
    1:36:33 I
    1:36:33 met
    1:36:33 him
    1:36:33 before
    1:36:34 he
    1:36:34 was
    1:36:34 a
    1:36:34 major
    1:36:35 leader
    1:36:35 he
    1:36:35 was
    1:36:36 the
    1:36:37 party
    1:36:38 secretary
    1:36:38 or
    1:36:38 mayor
    1:36:39 of
    1:36:39 Shanghai
    1:36:40 it
    1:36:40 matters
    1:36:40 because
    1:36:40 the
    1:36:40 party
    1:36:41 secretary
    1:36:41 is
    1:36:41 more
    1:36:41 important
    1:36:42 role
    1:36:43 but
    1:36:43 anyway
    1:36:43 he
    1:36:43 just
    1:36:43 met
    1:36:44 with
    1:36:44 a
    1:36:44 group
    1:36:45 of
    1:36:46 foreign
    1:36:47 scholars
    1:36:47 who
    1:36:47 were
    1:36:47 going
    1:36:47 over
    1:36:48 to
    1:36:48 Shanghai
    1:36:48 in
    1:36:48 88
    1:36:49 for
    1:36:49 a
    1:36:49 conference
    1:36:49 on
    1:36:50 Shanghai
    1:36:50 history
    1:36:51 and
    1:36:51 just
    1:36:52 to
    1:36:52 show
    1:36:52 you
    1:36:52 the
    1:36:53 limits
    1:36:53 of
    1:36:53 anybody
    1:36:53 who
    1:36:54 thinks
    1:36:54 they
    1:36:54 can
    1:36:54 predict
    1:36:54 what’s
    1:36:55 going
    1:36:55 on
    1:36:55 in
    1:36:56 Chinese
    1:36:56 politics
    1:36:57 or
    1:36:57 I
    1:36:57 mean
    1:36:58 predictability
    1:36:58 is
    1:36:58 just
    1:36:58 very
    1:36:59 hard
    1:36:59 in
    1:36:59 general
    1:37:00 in
    1:37:00 the
    1:37:00 world
    1:37:01 but
    1:37:01 I
    1:37:01 think
    1:37:01 the
    1:37:02 consensus
    1:37:02 among
    1:37:03 us
    1:37:03 and
    1:37:04 these
    1:37:04 were
    1:37:04 some
    1:37:04 of
    1:37:04 the
    1:37:04 most
    1:37:05 knowledgeable
    1:37:06 foreign
    1:37:06 scholars
    1:37:06 on
    1:37:07 China
    1:37:08 was
    1:37:08 this
    1:37:08 was
    1:37:08 somebody
    1:37:08 who
    1:37:09 really
    1:37:09 had
    1:37:10 probably
    1:37:10 topped
    1:37:11 out
    1:37:11 because
    1:37:12 he
    1:37:12 was
    1:37:12 meeting
    1:37:12 with
    1:37:12 us
    1:37:13 you
    1:37:13 know
    1:37:13 he
    1:37:13 must
    1:37:14 not
    1:37:14 be
    1:37:15 heading
    1:37:16 anywhere
    1:37:16 up
    1:37:16 and
    1:37:16 then
    1:37:17 after
    1:37:17 Tiananmen
    1:37:17 he
    1:37:18 becomes
    1:37:19 the
    1:37:19 top
    1:37:19 leader
    1:37:20 in
    1:37:20 China
    1:37:20 but
    1:37:20 he
    1:37:21 had
    1:37:22 a
    1:37:22 kind
    1:37:22 of
    1:37:23 you
    1:37:23 could
    1:37:23 pick
    1:37:23 things
    1:37:24 out
    1:37:24 from
    1:37:24 being
    1:37:24 in
    1:37:24 a
    1:37:24 room
    1:37:25 he
    1:37:25 liked
    1:37:26 to
    1:37:26 kind
    1:37:26 of
    1:37:26 show
    1:37:27 off
    1:37:28 his
    1:37:28 kind
    1:37:28 of
    1:37:30 cosmopolitanism
    1:37:31 Xi Jinping
    1:37:31 talks
    1:37:31 gives
    1:37:32 these
    1:37:32 speeches
    1:37:32 about
    1:37:33 all
    1:37:33 the
    1:37:33 foreign
    1:37:34 authors
    1:37:34 he
    1:37:34 likes
    1:37:34 and
    1:37:34 has
    1:37:35 read
    1:37:35 but
    1:37:35 it’s
    1:37:35 all
    1:37:36 very
    1:37:37 kind
    1:37:37 of
    1:37:39 scripted
    1:37:39 at least
    1:37:39 in his
    1:37:40 own
    1:37:40 head
    1:37:40 too
    1:37:43 present
    1:37:44 a
    1:37:44 certain
    1:37:44 image
    1:37:44 of
    1:37:45 himself
    1:37:45 and
    1:37:45 we
    1:37:45 really
    1:37:46 don’t
    1:37:46 get
    1:37:47 many
    1:37:48 senses
    1:37:48 of
    1:37:48 what
    1:37:49 he’s
    1:37:49 like
    1:37:49 in
    1:37:50 unguarded
    1:37:50 moments
    1:37:51 or has
    1:37:51 them
    1:37:51 and
    1:37:53 sometimes
    1:37:53 we get
    1:37:53 the
    1:37:54 illusion
    1:37:54 of
    1:37:54 them
    1:37:54 like
    1:37:54 there
    1:37:55 was
    1:37:55 an
    1:37:55 image
    1:37:55 of
    1:37:56 him
    1:37:57 and
    1:37:58 Obama
    1:37:58 in
    1:37:59 their
    1:37:59 shirt
    1:37:59 sleeves
    1:38:00 at
    1:38:00 the
    1:38:01 Sunnylands
    1:38:01 meeting
    1:38:02 and the
    1:38:02 photo
    1:38:03 would
    1:38:03 show
    1:38:03 them
    1:38:05 walking
    1:38:05 and
    1:38:06 talking
    1:38:06 but
    1:38:07 there’s
    1:38:07 no
    1:38:08 translator
    1:38:08 in
    1:38:08 the
    1:38:09 image
    1:38:09 and
    1:38:09 so
    1:38:09 you’re
    1:38:09 like
    1:38:09 how
    1:38:10 are
    1:38:10 they
    1:38:10 talking
    1:38:11 what
    1:38:16 of
    1:38:17 course
    1:38:17 there
    1:38:17 are
    1:38:17 exchanges
    1:38:18 with
    1:38:18 top
    1:38:18 leaders
    1:38:19 and
    1:38:19 Trump
    1:38:20 will
    1:38:20 say
    1:38:20 they’re
    1:38:21 friends
    1:38:21 or
    1:38:22 these
    1:38:22 kinds
    1:38:22 of
    1:38:22 things
    1:38:22 or
    1:38:23 there’s
    1:38:23 a
    1:38:23 language
    1:38:23 of
    1:38:25 Xi Jinping
    1:38:25 can
    1:38:25 talk
    1:38:25 about
    1:38:26 somebody
    1:38:26 or
    1:38:27 some
    1:38:27 country
    1:38:27 being
    1:38:28 friend
    1:38:28 but
    1:38:28 we
    1:38:29 don’t
    1:38:29 have
    1:38:29 a
    1:38:29 sense
    1:38:30 of
    1:38:31 what
    1:38:32 makes
    1:38:32 him
    1:38:32 tick
    1:38:32 as
    1:38:32 a
    1:38:33 person
    1:38:33 so
    1:38:34 maybe
    1:38:34 you
    1:38:34 should
    1:38:34 ask
    1:38:35 him
    1:38:35 about
    1:38:35 Ernest
    1:38:36 Hemingway
    1:38:36 and
    1:38:37 see
    1:38:37 if
    1:38:37 he
    1:38:37 really
    1:38:38 gets
    1:38:39 excited
    1:38:39 about
    1:38:39 him
    1:38:39 because
    1:38:40 in
    1:38:41 the
    1:38:41 kind
    1:38:41 of
    1:38:50 you
    1:38:50 goes
    1:38:50 off
    1:38:51 these
    1:38:51 set
    1:38:51 things
    1:38:52 but
    1:38:53 Hemingway
    1:38:54 there’s
    1:38:54 some
    1:38:55 sense
    1:38:55 that
    1:38:56 he
    1:38:56 had
    1:38:57 some
    1:38:57 special
    1:38:57 feeling
    1:38:57 which
    1:38:58 fits
    1:38:58 in
    1:38:58 with
    1:38:59 some
    1:38:59 of
    1:38:59 the
    1:38:59 macho
    1:39:00 side
    1:39:01 that
    1:39:01 would
    1:39:01 be
    1:39:02 interestingly
    1:39:02 he
    1:39:03 doesn’t
    1:39:03 mention
    1:39:03 Orwell
    1:39:04 as one
    1:39:04 of his
    1:39:04 favorite
    1:39:05 British
    1:39:06 authors
    1:39:06 as much
    1:39:07 he
    1:39:07 says
    1:39:07 he
    1:39:07 likes
    1:39:08 Victor
    1:39:08 Hugo
    1:39:08 a lot
    1:39:09 and
    1:39:09 that
    1:39:10 became
    1:39:10 a little
    1:39:10 tricky
    1:39:11 because
    1:39:12 do
    1:39:12 you
    1:39:12 hear
    1:39:12 the
    1:39:13 people
    1:39:13 sing
    1:39:13 from
    1:39:13 Les
    1:39:14 Miserables
    1:39:14 became
    1:39:15 one
    1:39:15 of
    1:39:15 the
    1:39:16 protest
    1:39:17 songs
    1:39:17 in
    1:39:18 Hong
    1:39:18 Kong
    1:39:18 and
    1:39:19 how
    1:39:19 do
    1:39:19 you
    1:39:19 get
    1:39:19 in
    1:39:19 this
    1:39:20 position
    1:39:21 where
    1:39:21 you
    1:39:21 you
    1:39:21 know
    1:39:22 you
    1:39:22 and
    1:39:23 actually
    1:39:24 Victor
    1:39:24 Hugo
    1:39:26 is
    1:39:27 a
    1:39:28 rare
    1:39:29 Western
    1:39:29 author
    1:39:30 who’s
    1:39:30 had a
    1:39:30 pretty
    1:39:31 steadily
    1:39:31 positive
    1:39:33 image
    1:39:33 in
    1:39:34 China
    1:39:34 even
    1:39:35 under
    1:39:35 periods
    1:39:36 of
    1:39:37 criticism
    1:39:37 of
    1:39:37 like
    1:39:38 all
    1:39:38 Western
    1:39:39 authors
    1:39:39 problematic
    1:39:41 because
    1:39:41 Victor
    1:39:41 Hugo
    1:39:42 famously
    1:39:43 wrote
    1:39:44 a
    1:39:44 statement
    1:39:45 denouncing
    1:39:46 the
    1:39:46 European
    1:39:48 destruction
    1:39:49 of the
    1:39:49 old
    1:39:49 summer
    1:39:49 palace
    1:39:50 in
    1:39:50 Beijing
    1:39:51 in
    1:39:51 1860
    1:39:52 the
    1:39:52 end
    1:39:52 of
    1:39:52 the
    1:39:53 second
    1:39:53 opium
    1:39:54 war
    1:39:54 he
    1:39:55 said
    1:39:55 how
    1:39:55 can
    1:39:55 we
    1:39:55 claim
    1:39:55 to
    1:39:56 be
    1:39:56 civilized
    1:39:57 when
    1:39:57 we’ve
    1:39:58 destroyed
    1:39:58 one
    1:39:58 of
    1:39:58 the
    1:39:58 great
    1:39:59 creations
    1:39:59 of
    1:40:00 civilization
    1:40:01 so
    1:40:01 that
    1:40:01 kind
    1:40:01 of
    1:40:02 made
    1:40:02 him
    1:40:02 a
    1:40:02 kind
    1:40:02 of
    1:40:03 long
    1:40:03 term
    1:40:04 friend
    1:40:04 to
    1:40:04 the
    1:40:04 Chinese
    1:40:05 nation
    1:40:06 Mark
    1:40:06 Twain
    1:40:07 has
    1:40:07 had a
    1:40:07 pretty
    1:40:07 good
    1:40:08 reputation
    1:40:08 because
    1:40:08 he was
    1:40:08 a
    1:40:08 critic
    1:40:09 of
    1:40:09 American
    1:40:10 imperialism
    1:40:11 so
    1:40:12 but
    1:40:12 anyway
    1:40:12 I think
    1:40:13 if you
    1:40:14 do get
    1:40:14 to talk
    1:40:15 to
    1:40:15 Xi Jinping
    1:40:16 talk to him
    1:40:16 about
    1:40:17 Ernest
    1:40:17 Hemingway
    1:40:18 and
    1:40:20 Victor Hugo
    1:40:20 and I’ll be
    1:40:21 curious to
    1:40:21 see if
    1:40:21 those were
    1:40:22 the ones
    1:40:22 who really
    1:40:23 resonated
    1:40:24 one
    1:40:24 one
    1:40:24 one of
    1:40:24 one of
    1:40:24 the things
    1:40:25 and
    1:40:25 it’s
    1:40:25 a
    1:40:25 strange
    1:40:26 thing
    1:40:26 that
    1:40:26 I’ve
    1:40:26 become
    1:40:26 aware
    1:40:27 of
    1:40:28 having
    1:40:28 spoken
    1:40:28 with
    1:40:29 world
    1:40:29 leaders
    1:40:30 I’m
    1:40:30 distinctly
    1:40:31 aware
    1:40:31 that
    1:40:31 there’s
    1:40:32 a
    1:40:32 real
    1:40:32 possibility
    1:40:34 that
    1:40:34 the
    1:40:34 black
    1:40:35 box
    1:40:35 we
    1:40:36 mentioned
    1:40:38 that
    1:40:38 the
    1:40:38 communist
    1:40:38 party
    1:40:39 of
    1:40:39 China
    1:40:40 will
    1:40:42 listen
    1:40:42 to the
    1:40:42 words
    1:40:42 I’m
    1:40:43 saying
    1:40:43 now
    1:40:44 and
    1:40:44 so
    1:40:44 I
    1:40:44 have
    1:40:44 to
    1:40:45 wonder
    1:40:46 how
    1:40:46 much
    1:40:46 that
    1:40:47 affects
    1:40:50 my
    1:40:50 possible
    1:40:51 tourist
    1:40:52 like
    1:40:52 trip
    1:40:53 to
    1:40:53 China
    1:40:54 because
    1:40:54 there’s
    1:40:54 a
    1:40:55 difference
    1:40:55 between
    1:40:55 sort
    1:40:55 of
    1:40:55 an
    1:40:56 influencer
    1:40:56 that
    1:40:57 does
    1:40:57 fun
    1:40:57 things
    1:40:57 plays
    1:40:58 video
    1:40:58 games
    1:40:59 and
    1:40:59 goes
    1:40:59 over
    1:40:59 to
    1:40:59 China
    1:41:00 and
    1:41:00 somebody
    1:41:00 that
    1:41:01 actually
    1:41:01 covers
    1:41:02 China
    1:41:02 to some
    1:41:03 degree
    1:41:04 whether
    1:41:04 critical
    1:41:05 or
    1:41:05 supportive
    1:41:05 or
    1:41:06 nuanced
    1:41:06 or
    1:41:07 any
    1:41:07 kind
    1:41:07 of
    1:41:07 way
    1:41:08 in
    1:41:08 the
    1:41:08 full
    1:41:09 spectrum
    1:41:09 of
    1:41:09 ideas
    1:41:09 you
    1:41:09 can
    1:41:10 have
    1:41:10 about
    1:41:10 China
    1:41:10 including
    1:41:11 Chinese
    1:41:11 history
    1:41:12 whether
    1:41:13 that’s
    1:41:13 going
    1:41:14 to be
    1:41:14 seen
    1:41:18 carefully
    1:41:18 analyzed
    1:41:19 carefully
    1:41:20 and
    1:41:21 have
    1:41:22 repercussions
    1:41:23 when you
    1:41:23 travel
    1:41:24 and
    1:41:25 because
    1:41:25 of the
    1:41:26 black box
    1:41:26 nature
    1:41:27 and
    1:41:27 because
    1:41:27 it’s
    1:41:28 for me
    1:41:28 personally
    1:41:29 just a
    1:41:29 culture
    1:41:29 that’s
    1:41:29 very
    1:41:30 different
    1:41:30 than
    1:41:30 anything
    1:41:31 I’m
    1:41:31 familiar
    1:41:31 with
    1:41:32 it
    1:41:34 makes
    1:41:34 me a
    1:41:34 bit
    1:41:35 nervous
    1:41:36 it’s
    1:41:36 certainly
    1:41:37 gotten
    1:41:38 harder
    1:41:38 for
    1:41:38 journalists
    1:41:39 to
    1:41:40 operate
    1:41:40 in
    1:41:40 China
    1:41:41 that
    1:41:42 there
    1:41:42 was
    1:41:43 a
    1:41:43 way
    1:41:43 in
    1:41:43 which
    1:41:44 now
    1:41:46 journalists
    1:41:46 will
    1:41:46 look
    1:41:46 back
    1:41:47 to
    1:41:47 the
    1:41:47 early
    1:41:48 2000s
    1:41:48 and
    1:41:48 it
    1:41:49 was
    1:41:49 really
    1:41:50 quite
    1:41:50 extraordinary
    1:41:51 what
    1:41:51 they
    1:41:51 could
    1:41:52 do
    1:41:53 well
    1:41:53 you
    1:41:54 have
    1:41:54 a lot
    1:41:54 of
    1:41:54 you
    1:41:54 have
    1:41:55 a lot
    1:41:55 of
    1:41:55 listeners
    1:41:55 I
    1:41:55 mean
    1:41:56 I
    1:41:56 think
    1:41:56 there
    1:41:57 isn’t
    1:41:57 that
    1:41:58 tight
    1:41:58 a
    1:41:59 watching
    1:41:59 of
    1:42:00 what
    1:42:01 an
    1:42:01 academic
    1:42:02 writes
    1:42:02 about
    1:42:03 the
    1:42:03 Chinese
    1:42:04 Communist
    1:42:04 Party
    1:42:04 but
    1:42:04 there
    1:42:04 are
    1:42:04 certain
    1:42:05 things
    1:42:05 that
    1:42:06 clearly
    1:42:07 are
    1:42:08 kind
    1:42:08 of
    1:42:08 tightly
    1:42:09 policed
    1:42:09 and
    1:42:10 one
    1:42:10 is
    1:42:11 discussions
    1:42:11 of the
    1:42:11 private
    1:42:12 life
    1:42:13 Chinese
    1:42:14 leaders
    1:42:14 and
    1:42:14 their
    1:42:15 families
    1:42:16 and
    1:42:17 issues
    1:42:17 of
    1:42:18 kind
    1:42:18 of
    1:42:18 really
    1:42:20 following
    1:42:20 money
    1:42:20 trails
    1:42:21 for
    1:42:21 corruption
    1:42:21 and
    1:42:22 things
    1:42:22 like
    1:42:22 that
    1:42:23 so
    1:42:24 there
    1:42:24 was
    1:42:24 the
    1:42:24 case
    1:42:25 of
    1:42:25 the
    1:42:26 Hong Kong
    1:42:26 booksellers
    1:42:27 who were
    1:42:28 kidnapped
    1:42:28 and one
    1:42:28 of them
    1:42:29 is still
    1:42:29 in a
    1:42:29 Chinese
    1:42:30 prison
    1:42:30 he would
    1:42:31 be a
    1:42:31 good
    1:42:31 example
    1:42:31 of this
    1:42:32 Gui Minhai
    1:42:32 the kind
    1:42:33 of person
    1:42:33 who was
    1:42:34 vulnerable
    1:42:35 he was
    1:42:36 born in
    1:42:36 China
    1:42:36 he was
    1:42:37 actually
    1:42:37 a Swedish
    1:42:38 he is
    1:42:38 a Swedish
    1:42:39 citizen
    1:42:40 and he
    1:42:40 was spirited
    1:42:41 out of
    1:42:41 Thailand
    1:42:42 into
    1:42:42 the
    1:42:43 mainland
    1:42:44 and the
    1:42:44 reason why
    1:42:45 he was
    1:42:46 on the
    1:42:47 on the
    1:42:47 radar
    1:42:48 of the
    1:42:49 Communist Party
    1:42:49 was because
    1:42:51 the publishing
    1:42:51 house in Hong Kong
    1:42:52 that he was
    1:42:52 connected to
    1:42:53 was publishing
    1:42:55 works about
    1:42:56 the top tier
    1:42:57 of the
    1:42:58 Chinese Communist
    1:42:58 Party
    1:43:00 and contradicting
    1:43:01 the kind
    1:43:01 of vision
    1:43:02 of them
    1:43:02 as a certain
    1:43:03 kind of
    1:43:03 moral
    1:43:04 exemplars
    1:43:05 and that’s
    1:43:06 different from
    1:43:07 writing
    1:43:08 things about
    1:43:09 China has a
    1:43:09 bad human
    1:43:10 rights
    1:43:10 record
    1:43:11 or something
    1:43:11 like that
    1:43:13 in ways
    1:43:13 like I
    1:43:13 did
    1:43:14 these were
    1:43:15 books that
    1:43:15 were
    1:43:16 exposés
    1:43:17 or sort
    1:43:18 of some
    1:43:18 some of
    1:43:19 them kind
    1:43:19 of gossipy
    1:43:20 and lightly
    1:43:20 sourced
    1:43:21 some of
    1:43:21 them much
    1:43:22 more serious
    1:43:23 but they
    1:43:24 were about
    1:43:25 something that
    1:43:26 the Communist
    1:43:26 Party leadership
    1:43:27 wants to
    1:43:27 make a no-go
    1:43:28 zone
    1:43:29 and I’ve
    1:43:29 thought
    1:43:29 sometimes
    1:43:30 that Xi
    1:43:30 Jinping
    1:43:31 seems to
    1:43:31 have
    1:43:32 lais-majeste
    1:43:33 envy
    1:43:34 I don’t
    1:43:34 think it’s
    1:43:35 kind of
    1:43:36 general
    1:43:36 criticisms
    1:43:38 of the
    1:43:39 Chinese
    1:43:39 Communist
    1:43:39 Party
    1:43:40 as a
    1:43:41 authoritarian
    1:43:45 structure
    1:43:46 or place
    1:43:47 that doesn’t
    1:43:47 deserve to
    1:43:48 rule in
    1:43:48 kind of
    1:43:49 very general
    1:43:49 terms
    1:43:49 I don’t
    1:43:50 think that’s
    1:43:51 something that
    1:43:52 they then
    1:43:53 pick you up
    1:43:53 at the border
    1:43:54 and say
    1:43:55 no we can’t
    1:43:55 let that
    1:43:56 person in
    1:43:57 because people
    1:43:57 are let
    1:43:57 in
    1:43:59 and it’s
    1:44:00 not rational
    1:44:01 it’s not
    1:44:01 a rational
    1:44:02 process
    1:44:02 there are
    1:44:02 people who’ve
    1:44:03 been denied
    1:44:04 visas
    1:44:05 it seems
    1:44:05 pretty
    1:44:06 inexplicable
    1:44:07 there are
    1:44:07 things that
    1:44:08 now I think
    1:44:09 the rules
    1:44:10 are changing
    1:44:11 very quickly
    1:44:12 all over
    1:44:12 the world
    1:44:14 for kinds
    1:44:14 of
    1:44:15 what’s
    1:44:16 what’s safe
    1:44:17 to say
    1:44:17 and do
    1:44:18 well either
    1:44:19 way I do
    1:44:20 know that the
    1:44:20 Communist Party
    1:44:21 and likely
    1:44:22 Xi Jinping
    1:44:23 himself watched
    1:44:25 my conversation
    1:44:26 with Prime
    1:44:27 Minister Modi
    1:44:28 they responded
    1:44:28 to it
    1:44:30 and I do
    1:44:30 hope
    1:44:31 and I will
    1:44:32 definitely
    1:44:33 go to China
    1:44:35 and I hope
    1:44:35 to talk to
    1:44:36 Xi Jinping
    1:44:36 it’s a
    1:44:37 fascinating
    1:44:38 historic
    1:44:38 ancient
    1:44:39 culture
    1:44:41 and is
    1:44:42 the major
    1:44:42 player on the
    1:44:43 world stage
    1:44:44 in the 21st
    1:44:44 century
    1:44:46 and it would
    1:44:47 be fascinating
    1:44:48 to understand
    1:44:48 the mind
    1:44:50 of the
    1:44:51 leader
    1:44:52 of that
    1:44:52 great
    1:44:53 superpower
    1:44:54 speaking of
    1:44:55 leaders
    1:44:56 what do we
    1:44:57 understand
    1:44:57 about the
    1:44:58 relationship
    1:44:58 between
    1:44:59 Xi Jinping
    1:44:59 and our
    1:45:00 current
    1:45:00 president
    1:45:01 of the
    1:45:01 United
    1:45:01 States
    1:45:02 Donald
    1:45:02 Trump
    1:45:03 is there
    1:45:03 really a
    1:45:03 human
    1:45:04 connection
    1:45:05 something
    1:45:05 approximating
    1:45:05 a
    1:45:06 friendship
    1:45:07 as they
    1:45:07 spoken
    1:45:07 about
    1:45:08 or is it
    1:45:08 just
    1:45:09 purely
    1:45:11 realpolitik
    1:45:12 maneuvering
    1:45:14 world leaders
    1:45:15 playing a game
    1:45:16 of chess
    1:45:17 or is it a bit
    1:45:17 of both
    1:45:18 there’s a
    1:45:19 degree to
    1:45:19 which I
    1:45:19 think there’s
    1:45:19 some
    1:45:20 confusion
    1:45:20 about a
    1:45:20 couple
    1:45:21 things
    1:45:21 I mean
    1:45:22 one is
    1:45:22 when
    1:45:24 there’s a
    1:45:25 sense
    1:45:25 that
    1:45:28 Trump
    1:45:28 is
    1:45:29 sort of
    1:45:29 uniquely
    1:45:30 tough
    1:45:31 on the
    1:45:31 Chinese
    1:45:32 Communist
    1:45:32 Party
    1:45:33 he has
    1:45:34 periodically
    1:45:34 said
    1:45:35 things
    1:45:35 about
    1:45:36 praising
    1:45:36 Xi Jinping
    1:45:38 as a
    1:45:38 leader
    1:45:38 even
    1:45:39 sort of
    1:45:39 having
    1:45:40 praising
    1:45:41 Xi Jinping’s
    1:45:41 strength
    1:45:42 things
    1:45:42 so I
    1:45:42 think
    1:45:43 for
    1:45:43 some
    1:45:43 ways
    1:45:44 for
    1:45:44 the
    1:45:45 personality
    1:45:45 cult
    1:45:45 of
    1:45:46 Xi
    1:45:46 Jinping
    1:45:47 some
    1:45:47 of
    1:45:47 this
    1:45:48 is
    1:45:48 kind
    1:45:48 of
    1:45:48 useful
    1:45:50 because
    1:45:52 the
    1:45:53 story
    1:45:54 that the
    1:45:54 Chinese
    1:45:54 Communist
    1:45:54 Party
    1:45:55 they need
    1:45:56 to tell
    1:45:56 a story
    1:45:56 about why
    1:45:57 they deserve
    1:45:57 to keep
    1:45:58 ruling
    1:45:58 and one
    1:45:58 of their
    1:45:59 stories
    1:45:59 is that
    1:46:00 because
    1:46:00 the world
    1:46:01 is a
    1:46:01 dangerous
    1:46:01 place
    1:46:02 and there’s
    1:46:02 not a lot
    1:46:03 of
    1:46:03 respect
    1:46:04 enough
    1:46:04 respect
    1:46:04 for
    1:46:04 China
    1:46:06 so when
    1:46:06 there’s
    1:46:06 very tough
    1:46:07 talk
    1:46:08 about
    1:46:08 China
    1:46:09 coming out
    1:46:09 of the
    1:46:09 White
    1:46:10 House
    1:46:11 that’s
    1:46:11 useful
    1:46:12 and then
    1:46:12 the other
    1:46:13 part is
    1:46:13 about
    1:46:13 Xi
    1:46:14 Jinping
    1:46:14 being
    1:46:15 just
    1:46:15 the
    1:46:16 right
    1:46:16 person
    1:46:16 to have
    1:46:17 at the
    1:46:17 helm
    1:46:18 and when
    1:46:19 there are
    1:46:19 discussions
    1:46:20 when there’s
    1:46:20 praise for
    1:46:21 him
    1:46:21 and
    1:46:21 his
    1:46:22 showing
    1:46:23 toughness
    1:46:23 that
    1:46:24 also
    1:46:25 works
    1:46:25 well
    1:46:26 so I
    1:46:26 think
    1:46:28 the
    1:46:29 argument
    1:46:29 among
    1:46:30 at least
    1:46:30 some
    1:46:31 China
    1:46:31 specialists
    1:46:32 is to
    1:46:32 say
    1:46:32 the
    1:46:33 Chinese
    1:46:33 Communist
    1:46:33 Party
    1:46:34 likes
    1:46:35 predictability
    1:46:36 and Xi
    1:46:36 Jinping
    1:46:37 seems to
    1:46:37 like
    1:46:37 predictability
    1:46:38 in
    1:46:38 particular
    1:46:39 and
    1:46:41 Donald
    1:46:42 Trump
    1:46:42 clearly
    1:46:42 isn’t
    1:46:42 a
    1:46:43 predictable
    1:46:44 figure
    1:46:45 so
    1:46:45 there
    1:46:45 might
    1:46:45 be
    1:46:46 a
    1:46:46 way
    1:46:46 in
    1:46:46 which
    1:46:47 this
    1:46:47 is
    1:46:48 unsettling
    1:46:49 but I
    1:46:49 think
    1:46:50 the other
    1:46:50 part
    1:46:50 of it
    1:46:51 is
    1:46:51 the
    1:46:51 Chinese
    1:46:51 Communist
    1:46:52 Party
    1:46:53 wants
    1:46:54 under
    1:46:54 Xi
    1:46:54 Jinping
    1:46:56 wants
    1:46:56 to
    1:46:58 gain
    1:46:58 more
    1:46:59 allies
    1:46:59 around
    1:46:59 the
    1:46:59 world
    1:47:00 to
    1:47:00 be
    1:47:01 seen
    1:47:01 with
    1:47:02 more
    1:47:02 respect
    1:47:02 around
    1:47:02 the
    1:47:03 world
    1:47:03 and
    1:47:04 at
    1:47:04 the
    1:47:04 moment
    1:47:05 is
    1:47:05 in
    1:47:05 a
    1:47:06 position
    1:47:06 where
    1:47:08 he
    1:47:08 can
    1:47:08 say
    1:47:09 he
    1:47:09 can
    1:47:10 present
    1:47:10 himself
    1:47:11 as
    1:47:11 an
    1:47:12 orderly
    1:47:13 thoughtful
    1:47:14 gradualist
    1:47:14 figure
    1:47:15 in
    1:47:16 some
    1:47:16 ways
    1:47:16 I
    1:47:16 think
    1:47:18 as
    1:47:19 much
    1:47:19 as
    1:47:20 there’s
    1:47:20 tension
    1:47:21 between
    1:47:22 the two
    1:47:23 capitals
    1:47:23 there’s
    1:47:23 a
    1:47:23 way
    1:47:24 that
    1:47:25 things
    1:47:25 are
    1:47:25 going
    1:47:26 in
    1:47:26 a
    1:47:26 way
    1:47:26 that
    1:47:27 benefits
    1:47:28 Xi
    1:47:28 Jinping
    1:47:29 and
    1:47:29 can
    1:47:30 see
    1:47:30 but
    1:47:30 that
    1:47:30 doesn’t
    1:47:31 explain
    1:47:31 what
    1:47:31 their
    1:47:32 personal
    1:47:32 relationship
    1:47:33 is
    1:47:33 and
    1:47:34 how
    1:47:34 they
    1:47:34 actually
    1:47:35 see
    1:47:35 each
    1:47:36 other
    1:47:36 when
    1:47:36 they’re
    1:47:36 in
    1:47:36 the
    1:47:36 room
    1:47:37 together
    1:47:37 and
    1:47:37 whether
    1:47:37 that
    1:47:38 matters
    1:47:38 or
    1:47:38 is
    1:47:39 part
    1:47:39 of
    1:47:39 the
    1:47:39 calculus
    1:47:40 at
    1:47:40 all
    1:47:40 because
    1:47:41 after
    1:47:41 all
    1:47:41 they
    1:47:41 are
    1:47:42 leaders
    1:47:42 of
    1:47:43 superpowers
    1:47:43 I
    1:47:43 think
    1:47:44 for
    1:47:44 Trump
    1:47:45 it
    1:47:46 matters
    1:47:47 personal
    1:47:47 relationships
    1:47:48 matter
    1:47:48 but
    1:47:49 of course
    1:47:49 we
    1:47:50 see
    1:47:50 a
    1:47:50 lot
    1:47:51 we
    1:47:51 know
    1:47:52 a lot
    1:47:52 about
    1:47:52 Donald
    1:47:52 Trump
    1:47:53 we
    1:47:53 know
    1:47:53 a lot
    1:47:53 about
    1:47:54 the
    1:47:54 White
    1:47:54 House
    1:47:56 and
    1:47:56 for
    1:47:57 actually
    1:47:57 let me
    1:47:57 just
    1:47:57 say
    1:47:58 as a
    1:47:58 tangent
    1:47:59 for
    1:47:59 whatever
    1:47:59 you
    1:47:59 think
    1:48:00 about
    1:48:00 this
    1:48:00 particular
    1:48:00 White
    1:48:01 House
    1:48:02 one
    1:48:03 of
    1:48:03 the
    1:48:03 things
    1:48:03 I
    1:48:03 really
    1:48:04 like
    1:48:05 is
    1:48:06 that
    1:48:06 every
    1:48:07 single
    1:48:07 member
    1:48:07 of
    1:48:07 the
    1:48:08 cabinet
    1:48:08 is
    1:48:09 willing
    1:48:09 to
    1:48:09 talk
    1:48:09 for
    1:48:10 many
    1:48:10 hours
    1:48:12 every
    1:48:13 single
    1:48:13 week
    1:48:14 talk
    1:48:14 about
    1:48:15 what
    1:48:15 they
    1:48:15 think
    1:48:15 how
    1:48:16 they
    1:48:16 see
    1:48:16 the
    1:48:16 world
    1:48:19 explained
    1:48:19 Donald
    1:48:20 Trump’s
    1:48:21 approach
    1:48:22 you know
    1:48:22 it
    1:48:23 doesn’t
    1:48:23 matter
    1:48:23 if
    1:48:23 you
    1:48:24 disagree
    1:48:24 with
    1:48:24 what
    1:48:24 they’re
    1:48:25 saying
    1:48:25 maybe
    1:48:25 you
    1:48:25 say
    1:48:25 they’re
    1:48:26 dishonest
    1:48:26 maybe
    1:48:26 you’re
    1:48:27 misrepresenting
    1:48:27 but
    1:48:28 there’s
    1:48:28 a lot
    1:48:28 of
    1:48:29 information
    1:48:30 that’s
    1:48:30 something
    1:48:30 we
    1:48:30 don’t
    1:48:31 have
    1:48:31 with
    1:48:31 China
    1:48:32 and
    1:48:32 as a
    1:48:33 fan
    1:48:33 of
    1:48:33 history
    1:48:34 for
    1:48:34 me
    1:48:35 and
    1:48:35 as
    1:48:35 a
    1:48:35 fan
    1:48:36 of
    1:48:36 sort
    1:48:36 of
    1:48:37 deep
    1:48:39 political
    1:48:39 analysis
    1:48:40 of
    1:48:40 the
    1:48:40 world
    1:48:42 it makes
    1:48:42 me sad
    1:48:43 because
    1:48:43 it’s a
    1:48:43 very
    1:48:44 asymmetrical
    1:48:45 amount
    1:48:45 of
    1:48:46 information
    1:48:47 but
    1:48:47 anyway
    1:48:48 let me
    1:48:48 if I
    1:48:49 can
    1:48:50 lay out
    1:48:51 this
    1:48:51 particular
    1:48:53 complexity
    1:48:53 we’re in
    1:48:54 now
    1:48:54 this trade
    1:48:54 war
    1:48:55 between
    1:48:55 US
    1:48:55 and
    1:48:56 China
    1:48:56 now
    1:48:57 you’re
    1:48:57 not
    1:48:57 an
    1:48:58 economist
    1:48:59 in
    1:48:59 fact
    1:49:00 so
    1:49:01 you
    1:49:01 think
    1:49:01 deeply
    1:49:02 about
    1:49:02 history
    1:49:03 of
    1:49:03 peoples
    1:49:03 and
    1:49:04 history
    1:49:04 of
    1:49:04 China
    1:49:05 you
    1:49:05 think
    1:49:05 about
    1:49:05 culture
    1:49:06 you think
    1:49:06 about
    1:49:06 protests
    1:49:07 and the
    1:49:07 movements
    1:49:08 and so on
    1:49:09 and there’s
    1:49:09 some
    1:49:10 degree
    1:49:11 to which
    1:49:12 this trade
    1:49:12 war
    1:49:14 is less
    1:49:14 about the
    1:49:15 economics
    1:49:15 now that
    1:49:16 layer is also
    1:49:17 very important
    1:49:17 and we could
    1:49:18 discuss it
    1:49:19 but there’s
    1:49:20 also
    1:49:22 a deeply
    1:49:24 cultural
    1:49:25 standoff
    1:49:26 almost
    1:49:27 happening
    1:49:27 happening
    1:49:27 happening
    1:49:27 here
    1:49:28 which
    1:49:28 would
    1:49:28 be
    1:49:28 interesting
    1:49:29 so
    1:49:30 in
    1:49:31 April
    1:49:31 as people
    1:49:32 know
    1:49:32 Trump
    1:49:32 escalated
    1:49:33 a trade
    1:49:33 war
    1:49:33 with
    1:49:33 China
    1:49:34 using
    1:49:34 tariffs
    1:49:35 raising
    1:49:35 them
    1:49:36 on
    1:49:36 Chinese
    1:49:37 imports
    1:49:37 to
    1:49:39 145%
    1:49:40 Xi Jinping
    1:49:41 then responded
    1:49:42 by raising
    1:49:42 tariffs on
    1:49:43 US goods
    1:49:44 to
    1:49:46 125%
    1:49:47 and suspending
    1:49:48 exports on
    1:49:48 certain rare
    1:49:49 earth minerals
    1:49:50 and magnets
    1:49:50 to the
    1:49:51 US
    1:49:52 the
    1:49:53 Chinese
    1:49:53 government
    1:49:53 also
    1:49:54 indicated
    1:49:54 it would
    1:49:54 limit
    1:49:54 the
    1:49:55 import
    1:49:55 of
    1:49:55 Hollywood
    1:49:56 films
    1:49:56 and
    1:49:56 restricted
    1:49:57 certain
    1:49:57 American
    1:49:57 companies
    1:49:58 from
    1:49:58 operating
    1:49:58 in
    1:49:59 China
    1:50:00 now
    1:50:01 after
    1:50:01 that
    1:50:01 Xi Jinping
    1:50:02 broke
    1:50:03 silence
    1:50:03 on
    1:50:04 April
    1:50:04 11th
    1:50:05 and again
    1:50:05 on April
    1:50:06 14th
    1:50:07 and since
    1:50:08 basically
    1:50:08 saying that
    1:50:09 China is
    1:50:09 not backing
    1:50:10 down
    1:50:11 and
    1:50:11 positioned
    1:50:12 himself
    1:50:12 in
    1:50:13 China
    1:50:13 as the
    1:50:14 quote
    1:50:14 responsible
    1:50:15 superpower
    1:50:16 that
    1:50:17 promotes
    1:50:17 as you
    1:50:17 were saying
    1:50:19 that promotes
    1:50:19 sort of the
    1:50:20 reasonable
    1:50:20 multilateral
    1:50:21 global
    1:50:21 trading
    1:50:22 framework
    1:50:22 and a
    1:50:22 stable
    1:50:23 global
    1:50:23 supply
    1:50:23 chain
    1:50:25 he said
    1:50:26 quote
    1:50:26 for over
    1:50:27 70 years
    1:50:28 China’s
    1:50:29 progress
    1:50:29 has been
    1:50:29 built on
    1:50:30 self-reliance
    1:50:31 and hard
    1:50:31 work
    1:50:32 never on
    1:50:33 handoffs
    1:50:33 from others
    1:50:34 and it
    1:50:34 remains
    1:50:35 unafraid
    1:50:36 of any
    1:50:36 unjust
    1:50:37 oppression
    1:50:39 also he
    1:50:39 said
    1:50:40 there are
    1:50:40 no winners
    1:50:41 in a
    1:50:41 trade war
    1:50:42 and going
    1:50:42 against
    1:50:43 the world
    1:50:43 will only
    1:50:44 lead to
    1:50:45 self-isolation
    1:50:46 this was
    1:50:47 all said
    1:50:47 as part
    1:50:47 of a
    1:50:48 tour
    1:50:48 of
    1:50:48 Southeast
    1:50:49 Asia
    1:50:50 and he
    1:50:50 was
    1:50:51 calling
    1:50:51 on
    1:50:51 China
    1:50:52 and the
    1:50:52 European
    1:50:53 Union
    1:50:53 to
    1:50:53 defend
    1:50:54 international
    1:50:54 rules
    1:50:55 opposing
    1:50:56 unilateral
    1:50:57 bullying
    1:50:59 at the
    1:51:00 same
    1:51:00 time
    1:51:00 I
    1:51:00 saw
    1:51:00 that
    1:51:01 China
    1:51:01 is
    1:51:01 escalating
    1:51:02 internal
    1:51:02 propaganda
    1:51:03 including
    1:51:04 interestingly
    1:51:20 it
    1:51:21 So I
    1:51:21 think
    1:51:22 one
    1:51:22 persistent
    1:51:24 there’s
    1:51:24 a lot
    1:51:25 to unpack
    1:51:25 there for
    1:51:27 a historian
    1:51:27 too
    1:51:28 I
    1:51:28 mean
    1:51:28 I
    1:51:28 think
    1:51:29 that
    1:51:30 the
    1:51:32 reference
    1:51:32 to
    1:51:34 being
    1:51:34 bullied
    1:51:35 by a
    1:51:35 foreign
    1:51:35 power
    1:51:36 is
    1:51:36 something
    1:51:36 that
    1:51:36 comes
    1:51:37 up
    1:51:38 periodically
    1:51:38 and
    1:51:39 plays
    1:51:39 to
    1:51:40 this
    1:51:40 kind
    1:51:40 of
    1:51:41 notion
    1:51:42 of
    1:51:42 the
    1:51:42 hundred
    1:51:42 years
    1:51:43 of
    1:51:43 national
    1:51:44 humiliation
    1:51:44 that’s
    1:51:44 been
    1:51:45 talked
    1:51:45 about
    1:51:45 by
    1:51:46 generations
    1:51:46 now
    1:51:47 of
    1:51:47 Chinese
    1:51:47 leaders
    1:51:48 to talk
    1:51:48 about
    1:51:49 that
    1:51:49 period
    1:51:49 from
    1:51:50 the
    1:51:50 1840s
    1:51:50 to the
    1:51:51 1940s
    1:51:52 there
    1:51:52 were
    1:51:52 a
    1:51:52 group
    1:51:53 of
    1:51:53 foreign
    1:51:53 powers
    1:51:54 who
    1:51:55 were
    1:51:55 involved
    1:51:55 in
    1:51:56 bullying
    1:51:56 China
    1:51:57 in one
    1:51:57 way
    1:51:57 or
    1:51:57 another
    1:51:57 and you
    1:51:57 can
    1:51:58 selectively
    1:51:58 pick
    1:51:59 one
    1:51:59 or
    1:51:59 another
    1:52:00 so
    1:52:00 there
    1:52:01 is
    1:52:01 a
    1:52:01 way
    1:52:01 in
    1:52:01 which
    1:52:02 this
    1:52:02 can
    1:52:03 be
    1:52:03 and
    1:52:03 if
    1:52:04 Xi Jinping
    1:52:04 gives
    1:52:04 that
    1:52:05 kind
    1:52:05 of
    1:52:05 speech
    1:52:05 in
    1:52:07 Southeast
    1:52:07 Asia
    1:52:08 he’s
    1:52:09 speaking
    1:52:09 to
    1:52:10 a
    1:52:10 place
    1:52:10 where
    1:52:11 there
    1:52:11 is
    1:52:12 knowledge
    1:52:12 of
    1:52:13 times
    1:52:13 of
    1:52:13 the
    1:52:13 past
    1:52:14 when
    1:52:14 the
    1:52:14 United
    1:52:15 States
    1:52:15 was
    1:52:16 aggressive
    1:52:17 force
    1:52:17 there
    1:52:18 it’s
    1:52:18 also
    1:52:19 a
    1:52:19 part
    1:52:19 of
    1:52:19 the
    1:52:19 world
    1:52:20 where
    1:52:20 there
    1:52:20 have
    1:52:20 been
    1:52:21 times
    1:52:21 when
    1:52:21 China
    1:52:21 has
    1:52:22 been
    1:52:23 that
    1:52:24 so
    1:52:24 it’s
    1:52:24 there
    1:52:25 is
    1:52:25 a
    1:52:25 way
    1:52:25 of
    1:52:26 positioning
    1:52:27 vis-a-vis
    1:52:28 other parts
    1:52:28 of the
    1:52:29 world
    1:52:29 that is
    1:52:29 crucial
    1:52:30 part
    1:52:30 of
    1:52:30 this
    1:52:30 that
    1:52:30 I
    1:52:31 think
    1:52:31 I
    1:52:32 guess
    1:52:32 it’s
    1:52:33 circling
    1:52:33 around
    1:52:33 it
    1:52:34 but
    1:52:34 there’s
    1:52:34 a
    1:52:35 tendency
    1:52:35 in
    1:52:36 discussions
    1:52:36 of
    1:52:36 US
    1:52:36 China
    1:52:37 relations
    1:52:38 to
    1:52:39 think
    1:52:39 about
    1:52:39 it
    1:52:40 in
    1:52:40 terms
    1:52:40 of
    1:52:40 a
    1:52:41 bilateral
    1:52:42 discussion
    1:52:43 or
    1:52:43 dispute
    1:52:44 even
    1:52:45 though
    1:52:45 time
    1:52:45 and
    1:52:46 again
    1:52:47 we
    1:52:48 realize
    1:52:49 that
    1:52:50 places
    1:52:50 other
    1:52:50 than
    1:52:51 the
    1:52:51 United
    1:52:51 States
    1:52:51 are
    1:52:51 key
    1:52:52 variables
    1:52:53 in
    1:52:53 these
    1:52:54 things
    1:52:54 so
    1:52:55 the
    1:52:56 US
    1:52:56 and
    1:52:56 China
    1:52:57 being
    1:52:57 at
    1:52:57 odds
    1:52:58 under
    1:52:59 in
    1:52:59 the
    1:52:59 Mao
    1:53:00 era
    1:53:02 what
    1:53:03 changed
    1:53:03 things
    1:53:04 dramatically
    1:53:04 for
    1:53:05 that
    1:53:05 wasn’t
    1:53:06 so
    1:53:06 much
    1:53:06 even
    1:53:07 a
    1:53:07 change
    1:53:07 in
    1:53:08 I
    1:53:09 mean
    1:53:09 yes
    1:53:09 Nixon
    1:53:10 was
    1:53:10 the
    1:53:10 one
    1:53:10 who
    1:53:10 went
    1:53:10 to
    1:53:11 China
    1:53:11 but
    1:53:12 what
    1:53:12 made
    1:53:12 it
    1:53:12 possible
    1:53:13 for
    1:53:13 Nixon
    1:53:13 to
    1:53:13 go
    1:53:13 to
    1:53:14 China
    1:53:14 was
    1:53:14 that
    1:53:14 the
    1:53:15 Sino-Soviet
    1:53:16 split
    1:53:16 happened
    1:53:17 that
    1:53:17 actually
    1:53:17 it
    1:53:17 was
    1:53:18 tensions
    1:53:18 between
    1:53:19 China
    1:53:19 and
    1:53:19 the
    1:53:20 Soviet
    1:53:20 Union
    1:53:21 that
    1:53:22 altered
    1:53:22 equations
    1:53:23 for
    1:53:23 the
    1:53:23 United
    1:53:23 States
    1:53:24 and
    1:53:24 China
    1:53:25 and
    1:53:26 another
    1:53:26 I
    1:53:27 happened
    1:53:27 to be
    1:53:27 in
    1:53:27 China
    1:53:28 in
    1:53:28 1999
    1:53:29 when
    1:53:30 NATO
    1:53:30 bombs
    1:53:31 hit
    1:53:31 the
    1:53:31 Chinese
    1:53:32 embassy
    1:53:32 in
    1:53:32 Belgrade
    1:53:33 and
    1:53:33 three
    1:53:33 Chinese
    1:53:34 citizens
    1:53:34 died
    1:53:34 and
    1:53:35 there
    1:53:35 was
    1:53:36 tremendous
    1:53:37 discontent
    1:53:37 about that
    1:53:38 anger
    1:53:38 about that
    1:53:38 within
    1:53:39 China
    1:53:40 and
    1:53:40 there
    1:53:40 were
    1:53:41 some
    1:53:41 rare
    1:53:42 protests
    1:53:42 that
    1:53:43 the
    1:53:43 government
    1:53:43 allowed
    1:53:43 to
    1:53:44 happen
    1:53:44 but
    1:53:45 students
    1:53:45 were
    1:53:45 worked
    1:53:45 up
    1:53:46 about
    1:53:46 it
    1:53:46 and
    1:53:47 there
    1:53:47 were
    1:53:47 protests
    1:53:47 outside
    1:53:48 the
    1:53:48 American
    1:53:48 embassy
    1:53:49 and
    1:53:49 the
    1:53:49 British
    1:53:49 embassy
    1:53:51 and
    1:53:52 that
    1:53:52 happened
    1:53:53 and
    1:53:53 then in
    1:53:53 2001
    1:53:54 there
    1:53:54 was
    1:53:54 a
    1:53:55 spy
    1:53:55 plane
    1:53:55 incident
    1:53:56 that
    1:53:56 happened
    1:53:56 and
    1:53:57 so
    1:53:57 there
    1:53:57 was
    1:53:57 a lot
    1:53:57 of
    1:53:58 discussion
    1:53:58 that
    1:54:00 the
    1:54:00 next
    1:54:00 decade
    1:54:00 was
    1:54:01 going
    1:54:01 to
    1:54:01 see
    1:54:02 U.S.-China
    1:54:02 tensions
    1:54:04 being
    1:54:04 the
    1:54:04 major
    1:54:05 force
    1:54:05 in
    1:54:05 the
    1:54:05 world
    1:54:07 9-11
    1:54:08 happened
    1:54:09 it was
    1:54:09 a dramatic
    1:54:10 reset
    1:54:11 for
    1:54:12 the
    1:54:12 trajectory
    1:54:12 that
    1:54:12 the
    1:54:13 U.S.
    1:54:13 and
    1:54:13 China
    1:54:13 were
    1:54:14 on
    1:54:14 which
    1:54:14 is
    1:54:15 these
    1:54:15 are
    1:54:15 two
    1:54:15 totally
    1:54:16 different
    1:54:16 things
    1:54:16 the
    1:54:17 Sino-Soviet
    1:54:17 split
    1:54:18 and 9-11
    1:54:18 but in
    1:54:19 both
    1:54:19 cases
    1:54:20 no matter
    1:54:21 how
    1:54:21 careful
    1:54:22 you were
    1:54:22 at
    1:54:22 parsing
    1:54:23 what
    1:54:24 was
    1:54:24 likely
    1:54:25 to be
    1:54:26 the
    1:54:26 next
    1:54:26 five
    1:54:27 years
    1:54:27 for
    1:54:28 U.S.-China
    1:54:28 relations
    1:54:29 get
    1:54:29 dramatically
    1:54:30 changed
    1:54:31 by something
    1:54:32 that happened
    1:54:32 that wasn’t
    1:54:33 the U.S.
    1:54:34 and China
    1:54:35 and
    1:54:35 during
    1:54:35 in
    1:54:36 the
    1:54:36 current
    1:54:36 situation
    1:54:37 the
    1:54:37 trade
    1:54:37 war
    1:54:38 I
    1:54:38 know
    1:54:39 that
    1:54:39 it
    1:54:39 will
    1:54:39 be
    1:54:39 very
    1:54:40 important
    1:54:41 that
    1:54:42 China
    1:54:42 can
    1:54:43 increase
    1:54:43 try to
    1:54:44 increase
    1:54:44 sales
    1:54:44 of
    1:54:45 consumer
    1:54:45 products
    1:54:45 to
    1:54:46 Europe
    1:54:47 this
    1:54:47 is
    1:54:47 something
    1:54:47 and
    1:54:48 that
    1:54:50 Europe’s
    1:54:50 view
    1:54:50 about
    1:54:51 the
    1:54:51 United
    1:54:51 States
    1:54:51 is
    1:54:52 changing
    1:54:52 right
    1:54:53 now
    1:54:53 these
    1:54:53 are
    1:54:53 all
    1:54:53 kinds
    1:54:53 of
    1:54:54 variables
    1:54:54 that
    1:54:54 are
    1:54:55 outside
    1:54:56 of
    1:54:56 simply
    1:54:57 Washington
    1:54:57 and
    1:54:58 Beijing
    1:54:58 as
    1:54:58 being
    1:54:58 the
    1:54:59 two
    1:54:59 actors
    1:54:59 and
    1:55:00 sometimes
    1:55:01 Beijing
    1:55:01 can’t
    1:55:01 control
    1:55:02 what’s
    1:55:02 happening
    1:55:03 outside
    1:55:03 and
    1:55:03 sometimes
    1:55:04 Washington
    1:55:05 can’t
    1:55:06 and
    1:55:06 so
    1:55:07 I
    1:55:07 guess
    1:55:08 this
    1:55:08 is
    1:55:08 simply
    1:55:09 saying
    1:55:09 that
    1:55:09 when
    1:55:09 you’re
    1:55:10 watching
    1:55:10 and
    1:55:11 you’re
    1:55:11 trying
    1:55:11 to
    1:55:11 keep
    1:55:11 the
    1:55:11 eye
    1:55:12 on
    1:55:12 the
    1:55:12 ball
    1:55:12 it
    1:55:13 matters
    1:55:13 a lot
    1:55:14 what
    1:55:15 India’s
    1:55:16 relationship
    1:55:17 to
    1:55:18 China
    1:55:18 and the
    1:55:19 United
    1:55:19 States
    1:55:19 is
    1:55:20 so
    1:55:20 all
    1:55:20 of
    1:55:20 these
    1:55:20 are
    1:55:20 happening
    1:55:21 there
    1:55:22 so
    1:55:22 I
    1:55:22 think
    1:55:22 that’s
    1:55:22 it
    1:55:23 that
    1:55:23 it’s
    1:55:24 it’s
    1:55:24 both
    1:55:24 tremendously
    1:55:25 important
    1:55:27 what’s
    1:55:27 going
    1:55:27 on
    1:55:27 between
    1:55:28 China
    1:55:28 and
    1:55:28 the
    1:55:28 United
    1:55:28 States
    1:55:29 but
    1:55:30 it’s
    1:55:30 important
    1:55:30 to
    1:55:31 remember
    1:55:31 that
    1:55:31 they’re
    1:55:31 not
    1:55:31 the
    1:55:32 only
    1:55:32 players
    1:55:32 in
    1:55:33 this
    1:55:35 dynamic
    1:55:36 also
    1:55:36 on top
    1:55:36 of
    1:55:36 this
    1:55:38 how
    1:55:39 much
    1:55:39 cultural
    1:55:40 will
    1:55:40 is
    1:55:40 there
    1:55:40 to
    1:55:42 not
    1:55:42 surrender
    1:55:42 to
    1:55:43 bullying
    1:55:45 how much
    1:55:45 of that
    1:55:46 is there
    1:55:47 like you
    1:55:47 said
    1:55:47 the
    1:55:48 century
    1:55:48 of
    1:55:49 humiliation
    1:55:50 both
    1:55:50 for
    1:55:50 Xi
    1:55:51 Jinping
    1:55:51 and
    1:55:51 the
    1:55:52 Chinese
    1:55:52 populace
    1:55:53 like
    1:55:53 willingness
    1:55:54 to go
    1:55:54 through
    1:55:54 some
    1:55:55 short-term
    1:55:55 pain
    1:55:56 to
    1:55:57 not
    1:55:57 be
    1:55:58 humiliated
    1:55:58 the
    1:55:59 story
    1:55:59 that’s
    1:55:59 been
    1:56:00 intensively
    1:56:00 told
    1:56:00 about
    1:56:01 the
    1:56:01 past
    1:56:02 is
    1:56:03 something
    1:56:03 that
    1:56:04 that
    1:56:05 provides
    1:56:05 the
    1:56:06 possibility
    1:56:06 for
    1:56:06 this
    1:56:07 for
    1:56:07 this
    1:56:08 to
    1:56:08 matter
    1:56:08 a
    1:56:08 lot
    1:56:09 that
    1:56:09 is
    1:56:10 something
    1:56:10 that’s
    1:56:10 just
    1:56:11 so
    1:56:13 it’s
    1:56:13 so much
    1:56:14 a part
    1:56:14 of
    1:56:14 the
    1:56:15 legitimating
    1:56:16 story
    1:56:17 of
    1:56:17 the
    1:56:18 Chinese
    1:56:18 Communist
    1:56:19 Party
    1:56:20 and
    1:56:20 then
    1:56:20 you
    1:56:20 have
    1:56:20 to
    1:56:20 look
    1:56:20 at
    1:56:21 are
    1:56:21 there
    1:56:21 things
    1:56:21 that
    1:56:21 are
    1:56:22 happening
    1:56:23 that
    1:56:24 aid
    1:56:24 the
    1:56:24 Chinese
    1:56:25 Communist
    1:56:25 Party
    1:56:26 story
    1:56:27 so
    1:56:28 the
    1:56:29 rise
    1:56:30 of
    1:56:32 what
    1:56:33 can
    1:56:33 seem
    1:56:34 like
    1:56:34 or is
    1:56:35 anti-Chinese
    1:56:35 sentiment
    1:56:36 within the
    1:56:36 United
    1:56:36 States
    1:56:37 can
    1:56:38 feed
    1:56:38 that
    1:56:39 propaganda
    1:56:40 story
    1:56:40 and
    1:56:41 so
    1:56:41 certainly
    1:56:42 you know
    1:56:42 during
    1:56:43 COVID
    1:56:44 there was
    1:56:45 a way
    1:56:45 that
    1:56:48 if
    1:56:48 you’re
    1:56:49 the
    1:56:49 Chinese
    1:56:50 Communist
    1:56:50 Party
    1:56:50 and
    1:56:50 you’re
    1:56:51 saying
    1:56:51 we
    1:56:51 get
    1:56:51 a
    1:56:52 disproportionate
    1:56:52 amount
    1:56:53 of
    1:56:53 blame
    1:56:53 for
    1:56:53 whatever
    1:56:54 happens
    1:56:54 in the
    1:56:54 world
    1:56:55 then
    1:56:55 if
    1:56:55 there
    1:56:56 were
    1:56:56 things
    1:56:56 you
    1:56:56 could
    1:56:56 point
    1:56:57 to
    1:56:58 in
    1:56:58 the
    1:56:58 foreign
    1:56:59 media
    1:56:59 or
    1:56:59 from
    1:57:00 foreign
    1:57:00 governments
    1:57:00 then
    1:57:01 that
    1:57:01 helps
    1:57:01 you
    1:57:03 so
    1:57:03 I
    1:57:03 think
    1:57:04 there
    1:57:04 is
    1:57:04 a
    1:57:04 setup
    1:57:05 here
    1:57:05 where
    1:57:06 certainly
    1:57:06 for
    1:57:07 Xi
    1:57:07 Jinping
    1:57:07 I
    1:57:07 think
    1:57:08 the
    1:57:09 desire
    1:57:09 to
    1:57:10 not
    1:57:10 be
    1:57:10 seen
    1:57:11 weak
    1:57:12 is
    1:57:13 crucial
    1:57:13 sometimes
    1:57:14 I
    1:57:14 wonder
    1:57:14 how much
    1:57:14 these
    1:57:15 leaders
    1:57:15 operate
    1:57:16 on
    1:57:16 pure
    1:57:17 ego
    1:57:17 because
    1:57:18 politically
    1:57:19 and on
    1:57:20 the human
    1:57:20 level
    1:57:20 they don’t
    1:57:21 want to
    1:57:21 come off
    1:57:22 as losers
    1:57:24 in a
    1:57:24 standoff
    1:57:26 versus
    1:57:28 coming to
    1:57:29 a
    1:57:29 economic
    1:57:30 win-win
    1:57:31 for both
    1:57:31 nations
    1:57:39 and I
    1:57:39 worry
    1:57:40 that
    1:57:41 there
    1:57:41 is
    1:57:41 a
    1:57:41 real
    1:57:42 pride
    1:57:42 here
    1:57:42 that
    1:57:43 the
    1:57:43 center
    1:57:43 of
    1:57:43 humiliation
    1:57:44 has
    1:57:45 deeply
    1:57:46 saturated
    1:57:47 the
    1:57:48 populace
    1:57:48 the
    1:57:49 communist
    1:57:49 party
    1:57:50 this
    1:57:50 idea
    1:57:52 where
    1:57:52 they’re
    1:57:53 not
    1:57:53 they’re
    1:57:53 just
    1:57:53 not
    1:57:53 going
    1:57:54 to
    1:57:54 back
    1:57:54 down
    1:57:55 and
    1:57:56 that
    1:57:56 I
    1:57:56 think
    1:57:57 will
    1:57:58 cause
    1:57:59 tremendous
    1:57:59 pain
    1:57:59 in the
    1:58:00 short
    1:58:00 term
    1:58:01 for
    1:58:01 United
    1:58:02 States
    1:58:03 I
    1:58:03 think
    1:58:03 for
    1:58:04 China
    1:58:04 and
    1:58:05 the
    1:58:05 world
    1:58:06 because
    1:58:06 it
    1:58:07 completely
    1:58:09 transforms
    1:58:09 the supply
    1:58:09 chain
    1:58:10 of
    1:58:10 everything
    1:58:10 we
    1:58:10 just
    1:58:11 there
    1:58:11 is
    1:58:11 a
    1:58:12 global
    1:58:12 nature
    1:58:12 there
    1:58:12 is
    1:58:13 a
    1:58:14 multilateral
    1:58:14 nature
    1:58:14 of
    1:58:15 all
    1:58:15 the
    1:58:15 economic
    1:58:16 partnerships
    1:58:16 that
    1:58:16 are
    1:58:17 formed
    1:58:17 throughout
    1:58:18 the
    1:58:18 21st
    1:58:18 century
    1:58:18 and
    1:58:19 this
    1:58:20 kind
    1:58:20 of
    1:58:21 protectionist
    1:58:22 nationalistic
    1:58:23 kind
    1:58:23 of
    1:58:24 ideology
    1:58:25 goes
    1:58:25 in the
    1:58:25 face
    1:58:26 of
    1:58:26 all
    1:58:26 of
    1:58:26 that
    1:58:27 and
    1:58:27 it’s
    1:58:27 going
    1:58:28 to
    1:58:28 create
    1:58:28 a
    1:58:28 huge
    1:58:28 amount
    1:58:29 of
    1:58:30 pain
    1:58:30 like
    1:58:30 for
    1:58:31 regular
    1:58:32 Americans
    1:58:33 but
    1:58:34 also
    1:58:34 I
    1:58:34 worry
    1:58:35 that
    1:58:35 this
    1:58:36 increases
    1:58:36 not
    1:58:37 decreases
    1:58:37 the
    1:58:38 chance
    1:58:38 of
    1:58:38 a
    1:58:38 global
    1:58:39 war
    1:58:39 or
    1:58:40 conflict
    1:58:40 of
    1:58:41 different
    1:58:41 kinds
    1:58:43 do you
    1:58:43 see a
    1:58:44 hopeful
    1:58:45 possibility
    1:58:45 for
    1:58:46 resolution
    1:58:46 for
    1:58:47 de-escalation
    1:58:48 here
    1:58:49 it’s
    1:58:49 it’s
    1:58:49 it’s
    1:58:50 it’s
    1:58:50 it’s
    1:58:50 a
    1:58:51 it’s
    1:58:51 a
    1:58:51 hard
    1:58:52 time
    1:58:52 to
    1:58:53 figure
    1:58:53 out
    1:58:53 what
    1:58:54 what
    1:58:54 you
    1:58:54 can
    1:58:55 to
    1:58:56 sort
    1:58:56 of
    1:58:57 hopeful
    1:58:58 angles
    1:58:58 I mean
    1:58:58 I guess
    1:59:01 what’s
    1:59:01 hard to
    1:59:02 even
    1:59:02 balance
    1:59:03 these
    1:59:03 things
    1:59:03 out
    1:59:03 so
    1:59:04 one
    1:59:04 of
    1:59:04 the
    1:59:04 things
    1:59:04 that
    1:59:04 I’ve
    1:59:04 thought
    1:59:05 about
    1:59:05 when
    1:59:05 you
    1:59:05 talk
    1:59:06 about
    1:59:06 rising
    1:59:07 chances
    1:59:07 of
    1:59:07 war
    1:59:08 that
    1:59:09 often
    1:59:09 Taiwan
    1:59:10 comes
    1:59:10 to
    1:59:11 mind
    1:59:11 with
    1:59:12 China
    1:59:12 and
    1:59:12 one
    1:59:12 of
    1:59:12 the
    1:59:12 things
    1:59:12 that
    1:59:13 I’ve
    1:59:13 thought
    1:59:13 of
    1:59:13 is
    1:59:13 that
    1:59:14 for
    1:59:17 Xi
    1:59:17 Jinping
    1:59:18 that
    1:59:19 military
    1:59:20 action
    1:59:20 against
    1:59:20 Taiwan
    1:59:22 would
    1:59:22 be
    1:59:22 increased
    1:59:23 by
    1:59:25 a
    1:59:25 sense
    1:59:25 of
    1:59:26 desperation
    1:59:27 a sense
    1:59:27 of
    1:59:27 losing
    1:59:28 popularity
    1:59:28 or a
    1:59:29 sense
    1:59:29 of
    1:59:31 not
    1:59:31 having
    1:59:31 a good
    1:59:32 story
    1:59:32 to tell
    1:59:33 about
    1:59:34 why
    1:59:34 he
    1:59:35 and
    1:59:35 the
    1:59:35 party
    1:59:35 deserves
    1:59:36 to
    1:59:36 lead
    1:59:36 so
    1:59:37 then
    1:59:37 there’s
    1:59:37 a
    1:59:37 kind
    1:59:37 of
    1:59:38 way
    1:59:38 of
    1:59:38 playing
    1:59:39 to
    1:59:40 the
    1:59:40 national
    1:59:40 sentiments
    1:59:41 of
    1:59:41 some
    1:59:41 part
    1:59:42 of
    1:59:42 the
    1:59:42 population
    1:59:43 so
    1:59:45 then
    1:59:45 in a
    1:59:45 sense
    1:59:46 it’s
    1:59:46 hopeful
    1:59:46 that
    1:59:46 I
    1:59:46 think
    1:59:47 in
    1:59:47 some
    1:59:47 ways
    1:59:47 right
    1:59:48 now
    1:59:48 Xi
    1:59:48 Jinping
    1:59:50 is
    1:59:50 not
    1:59:51 looking
    1:59:52 desperate
    1:59:53 in the
    1:59:53 eyes
    1:59:53 of
    1:59:53 the
    1:59:53 world
    1:59:53 you know
    1:59:54 he
    1:59:54 can
    1:59:55 if he
    1:59:55 can
    1:59:55 focus
    1:59:56 on
    1:59:57 potentially
    1:59:59 being
    2:00:00 seen
    2:00:00 more
    2:00:01 positively
    2:00:02 in
    2:00:02 other
    2:00:02 parts
    2:00:02 of
    2:00:03 the
    2:00:03 world
    2:00:03 by
    2:00:04 seeming
    2:00:04 like
    2:00:04 a
    2:00:05 kind
    2:00:05 of
    2:00:06 force
    2:00:06 for
    2:00:06 stability
    2:00:07 seen
    2:00:07 as
    2:00:08 somebody
    2:00:08 who’s
    2:00:09 supporting
    2:00:10 rather
    2:00:10 than
    2:00:11 challenging
    2:00:11 some
    2:00:12 elements
    2:00:12 of the
    2:00:12 global
    2:00:13 order
    2:00:14 that
    2:00:16 might
    2:00:17 lessen
    2:00:18 the chances
    2:00:19 of a
    2:00:19 rash
    2:00:20 action
    2:00:21 toward Taiwan
    2:00:21 that would
    2:00:21 be a
    2:00:22 kind of
    2:00:22 desperation
    2:00:23 move
    2:00:23 the
    2:00:24 complicated
    2:00:24 thing
    2:00:25 here is
    2:00:27 that
    2:00:27 if he
    2:00:28 gives
    2:00:28 in
    2:00:30 he can
    2:00:31 come off
    2:00:31 as the
    2:00:32 responsible
    2:00:32 person who
    2:00:33 cares about
    2:00:33 the world
    2:00:35 or he
    2:00:35 can come
    2:00:36 off
    2:00:36 weak
    2:00:38 if he
    2:00:38 doesn’t
    2:00:38 give in
    2:00:39 and even
    2:00:40 escalates
    2:00:40 the
    2:00:40 tariffs
    2:00:40 although
    2:00:41 I think
    2:00:41 he said
    2:00:42 no more
    2:00:42 escalation
    2:00:42 on the
    2:00:43 China
    2:00:43 front
    2:00:46 then he
    2:00:46 comes off
    2:00:47 strong
    2:00:48 but also
    2:00:48 the
    2:00:49 equally
    2:00:50 unreasonable
    2:00:51 person
    2:00:52 who doesn’t
    2:00:52 care about
    2:00:52 the world
    2:00:53 who only
    2:00:54 cares about
    2:00:56 his own
    2:00:57 ego
    2:00:58 and maybe
    2:00:58 some
    2:00:59 aspect of
    2:00:59 the
    2:01:00 communist
    2:01:00 party
    2:01:01 maintaining
    2:01:01 power
    2:01:02 because
    2:01:03 just like
    2:01:03 with Tiananmen
    2:01:03 Square
    2:01:04 and the
    2:01:04 tank man
    2:01:05 you don’t
    2:01:05 know
    2:01:06 once
    2:01:07 you make
    2:01:08 the decision
    2:01:09 how the
    2:01:09 world
    2:01:10 will read
    2:01:11 that decision
    2:01:12 what kind
    2:01:13 of things
    2:01:13 will become
    2:01:14 viral memes
    2:01:16 about the
    2:01:16 telling of
    2:01:17 that story
    2:01:18 and of
    2:01:19 course in
    2:01:19 part
    2:01:20 I think
    2:01:21 Donald Trump’s
    2:01:22 reach is
    2:01:22 much wider
    2:01:23 because he’s
    2:01:24 constantly out
    2:01:24 there
    2:01:25 and I think
    2:01:26 there’s a
    2:01:27 more reserved
    2:01:28 less messaging
    2:01:28 out of
    2:01:29 Beijing
    2:01:30 so it’s
    2:01:31 a really
    2:01:31 chaotic
    2:01:32 environment
    2:01:32 in which
    2:01:33 to make
    2:01:33 strong
    2:01:34 decisions
    2:01:36 but since
    2:01:36 you brought
    2:01:37 it up
    2:01:38 we’ll talk
    2:01:38 about
    2:01:38 Hong Kong
    2:01:39 but let’s
    2:01:40 talk about
    2:01:41 Taiwan
    2:01:42 and maybe
    2:01:42 there’s some
    2:01:43 parallels there
    2:01:45 given
    2:01:46 Xi Jinping’s
    2:01:46 emphasis on
    2:01:47 the great
    2:01:47 rejuvenation
    2:01:47 of the
    2:01:48 Chinese
    2:01:48 nation
    2:01:49 and the
    2:01:49 unification
    2:01:50 with Taiwan
    2:01:53 being a
    2:01:54 crucial part
    2:01:54 of his
    2:01:55 vision for
    2:01:55 China
    2:01:57 what do
    2:01:58 you think
    2:01:58 are the
    2:01:58 chances
    2:02:00 and how
    2:02:00 willing is
    2:02:01 he to
    2:02:01 use force
    2:02:02 to
    2:02:03 annex
    2:02:04 to
    2:02:04 forcibly
    2:02:04 gain
    2:02:05 control
    2:02:05 over
    2:02:05 Taiwan
    2:02:06 in the
    2:02:06 coming
    2:02:07 years
    2:02:07 I’ll
    2:02:08 frame it
    2:02:08 in a way
    2:02:09 that I
    2:02:09 think does
    2:02:10 lead into
    2:02:11 talking about
    2:02:11 Hong Kong
    2:02:12 because I
    2:02:12 think these
    2:02:13 are connected
    2:02:13 issues
    2:02:14 in 1984
    2:02:15 when the
    2:02:16 year
    2:02:16 not the
    2:02:17 book this
    2:02:17 time
    2:02:19 that’s when
    2:02:20 a deal
    2:02:20 was struck
    2:02:21 basically
    2:02:21 between
    2:02:22 London
    2:02:23 and Beijing
    2:02:24 over what
    2:02:24 would happen
    2:02:24 to Hong
    2:02:25 Kong
    2:02:25 so Hong
    2:02:26 Kong
    2:02:29 Island
    2:02:30 became a
    2:02:31 British
    2:02:31 colony
    2:02:32 at the
    2:02:32 end of
    2:02:32 the
    2:02:32 first
    2:02:33 opium
    2:02:33 war
    2:02:34 the
    2:02:35 1840s
    2:02:35 and then
    2:02:36 Kowloon
    2:02:36 peninsula
    2:02:37 near there
    2:02:38 became a
    2:02:38 British
    2:02:38 colony
    2:02:40 1860
    2:02:41 after the
    2:02:41 second
    2:02:42 opium
    2:02:42 war
    2:02:43 but then
    2:02:43 there was
    2:02:43 a large
    2:02:44 amount
    2:02:44 of territory
    2:02:45 of what
    2:02:45 we now
    2:02:45 think of
    2:02:45 as
    2:02:46 Hong
    2:02:46 Kong
    2:02:47 called
    2:02:47 the
    2:02:47 new
    2:02:47 territories
    2:02:48 that
    2:02:48 became
    2:02:48 under
    2:02:49 British
    2:02:49 control
    2:02:49 in
    2:02:51 1898
    2:02:52 but was
    2:02:53 not
    2:02:54 a
    2:02:54 colony
    2:02:55 it was
    2:02:55 a
    2:02:55 99
    2:02:56 year
    2:02:56 lease
    2:02:57 so
    2:02:57 1997
    2:02:58 was
    2:02:58 this
    2:02:59 kind
    2:02:59 of
    2:02:59 expiration
    2:03:00 date
    2:03:00 for
    2:03:00 the
    2:03:01 lease
    2:03:01 of
    2:03:01 this
    2:03:02 large
    2:03:02 amount
    2:03:02 of
    2:03:03 territory
    2:03:03 of what
    2:03:03 we now
    2:03:03 think of
    2:03:04 as
    2:03:04 Hong
    2:03:04 Kong
    2:03:05 it’s
    2:03:05 a
    2:03:05 large
    2:03:06 amount
    2:03:06 of
    2:03:06 territory
    2:03:07 that
    2:03:07 the
    2:03:08 rest
    2:03:08 of
    2:03:08 Hong
    2:03:08 Kong
    2:03:08 the
    2:03:08 Hong
    2:03:09 Kong
    2:03:09 Island
    2:03:09 and
    2:03:10 Kowloon
    2:03:10 depend
    2:03:11 on
    2:03:11 for
    2:03:11 energy
    2:03:12 water
    2:03:12 and
    2:03:13 food
    2:03:13 so
    2:03:13 it
    2:03:14 would
    2:03:14 have
    2:03:14 been
    2:03:14 very
    2:03:14 hard
    2:03:15 to
    2:03:16 just
    2:03:16 give
    2:03:17 back
    2:03:17 give
    2:03:17 those
    2:03:18 parts
    2:03:18 transfer
    2:03:18 those
    2:03:19 parts
    2:03:19 to
    2:03:19 the
    2:03:19 People’s
    2:03:20 Republic
    2:03:20 of
    2:03:20 China
    2:03:21 so
    2:03:21 a
    2:03:21 deal
    2:03:22 needed
    2:03:22 to
    2:03:22 be
    2:03:22 struck
    2:03:22 of
    2:03:22 what
    2:03:22 would
    2:03:23 happen
    2:03:23 in
    2:03:24 1997
    2:03:25 and
    2:03:28 the
    2:03:28 deal
    2:03:28 was
    2:03:28 about
    2:03:29 transferring
    2:03:29 sovereignty
    2:03:30 of
    2:03:30 all
    2:03:30 of
    2:03:30 Hong
    2:03:31 Kong
    2:03:32 all
    2:03:32 these
    2:03:32 parts
    2:03:33 to
    2:03:33 the
    2:03:33 People’s
    2:03:33 Republic
    2:03:34 of
    2:03:34 China
    2:03:35 and
    2:03:35 I
    2:03:36 carefully
    2:03:36 say
    2:03:36 transfer
    2:03:37 sovereignty
    2:03:37 not
    2:03:37 give
    2:03:38 it
    2:03:38 back
    2:03:38 to
    2:03:38 the
    2:03:39 People’s
    2:03:39 Republic
    2:03:39 of
    2:03:39 China
    2:03:39 because
    2:03:39 it
    2:03:40 never
    2:03:40 belonged
    2:03:40 to
    2:03:40 the
    2:03:40 People’s
    2:03:41 Republic
    2:03:41 of
    2:03:41 China
    2:03:42 it
    2:03:42 was
    2:03:42 part
    2:03:42 of
    2:03:43 the
    2:03:43 Qing
    2:03:43 Empire
    2:03:44 which
    2:03:44 was
    2:03:45 a
    2:03:45 different
    2:03:46 country
    2:03:46 a
    2:03:46 different
    2:03:47 state
    2:03:47 that
    2:03:47 then
    2:03:48 anyway
    2:03:49 but
    2:03:50 this
    2:03:50 needed
    2:03:50 to be
    2:03:51 transferred
    2:03:52 and
    2:03:52 the
    2:03:56 London
    2:03:56 side
    2:03:57 wanted
    2:03:57 to
    2:03:58 do
    2:03:58 something
    2:03:59 to
    2:03:59 protect
    2:03:59 what
    2:03:59 was
    2:04:00 going
    2:04:00 to
    2:04:00 happen
    2:04:00 to
    2:04:01 the
    2:04:01 people
    2:04:01 there
    2:04:01 and
    2:04:02 remember
    2:04:02 this
    2:04:03 is
    2:04:03 not
    2:04:03 what
    2:04:04 usually
    2:04:04 happens
    2:04:04 to
    2:04:05 colonies
    2:04:06 usually
    2:04:07 go
    2:04:07 from
    2:04:07 being
    2:04:07 part
    2:04:08 of
    2:04:08 an
    2:04:08 empire
    2:04:08 to
    2:04:09 being
    2:04:09 some
    2:04:10 degree
    2:04:10 of
    2:04:10 self
    2:04:10 governed
    2:04:12 and
    2:04:12 because
    2:04:12 of
    2:04:12 that
    2:04:13 the
    2:04:13 Chinese
    2:04:14 representative
    2:04:14 of
    2:04:14 the
    2:04:14 UN
    2:04:15 insisted
    2:04:15 that
    2:04:15 Hong
    2:04:15 Kong
    2:04:16 was
    2:04:16 not
    2:04:16 a
    2:04:16 colony
    2:04:17 and
    2:04:17 Macau
    2:04:17 was
    2:04:17 not
    2:04:17 a
    2:04:18 colony
    2:04:18 because
    2:04:19 then
    2:04:19 they
    2:04:19 would
    2:04:19 have
    2:04:19 to
    2:04:19 be
    2:04:24 an
    2:04:24 understanding
    2:04:25 that
    2:04:25 something
    2:04:25 would
    2:04:25 have
    2:04:25 to
    2:04:26 happen
    2:04:26 in
    2:04:26 1997
    2:04:27 and
    2:04:27 London
    2:04:28 wanted
    2:04:28 some
    2:04:29 protection
    2:04:29 for
    2:04:29 the
    2:04:29 people
    2:04:31 in
    2:04:31 Hong
    2:04:32 Kong
    2:04:32 who
    2:04:32 they
    2:04:33 knew
    2:04:33 were
    2:04:35 living
    2:04:35 in a
    2:04:36 very
    2:04:36 different
    2:04:36 way
    2:04:37 than
    2:04:37 people
    2:04:37 lived
    2:04:37 under
    2:04:38 Communist
    2:04:38 Party
    2:04:38 rule
    2:04:39 there
    2:04:39 was
    2:04:39 a
    2:04:39 different
    2:04:39 kind
    2:04:40 of
    2:04:40 rule
    2:04:40 of
    2:04:40 law
    2:04:42 there
    2:04:42 wasn’t
    2:04:43 democracy
    2:04:44 but
    2:04:44 there
    2:04:44 was
    2:04:44 some
    2:04:45 degree
    2:04:45 of
    2:04:45 input
    2:04:46 in
    2:04:47 governance
    2:04:48 the
    2:04:49 colonial
    2:04:50 authority
    2:04:50 and
    2:04:50 the
    2:04:51 most
    2:04:51 powerful
    2:04:52 person
    2:04:52 in
    2:04:52 Hong
    2:04:52 Kong
    2:04:52 was
    2:04:52 appointed
    2:04:53 by
    2:04:53 London
    2:04:55 after
    2:04:55 1997
    2:04:56 the
    2:04:57 most
    2:04:57 powerful
    2:04:58 person
    2:04:58 would
    2:04:59 probably
    2:04:59 have
    2:04:59 to
    2:05:00 be
    2:05:00 somebody
    2:05:00 who
    2:05:00 could
    2:05:01 work
    2:05:01 with
    2:05:01 Beijing
    2:05:02 but
    2:05:03 in
    2:05:03 this
    2:05:04 negotiation
    2:05:04 something
    2:05:05 was
    2:05:05 come
    2:05:05 up
    2:05:05 with
    2:05:05 called
    2:05:06 one
    2:05:06 country
    2:05:06 two
    2:05:07 systems
    2:05:08 and
    2:05:08 Hong
    2:05:09 Kong
    2:05:09 would
    2:05:09 become
    2:05:09 part
    2:05:09 of
    2:05:09 the
    2:05:10 people’s
    2:05:10 Republic
    2:05:10 of
    2:05:10 China
    2:05:11 in
    2:05:11 diplomatic
    2:05:12 terms
    2:05:13 it
    2:05:13 wouldn’t
    2:05:13 have
    2:05:13 its
    2:05:13 own
    2:05:14 military
    2:05:15 but
    2:05:15 it
    2:05:15 would
    2:05:15 have
    2:05:15 its
    2:05:16 own
    2:05:16 system
    2:05:17 for
    2:05:17 50
    2:05:17 years
    2:05:17 was
    2:05:18 the
    2:05:18 idea
    2:05:18 from
    2:05:19 1997
    2:05:20 until
    2:05:21 2047
    2:05:23 there
    2:05:23 was
    2:05:23 a
    2:05:24 tension
    2:05:24 from
    2:05:24 the
    2:05:25 beginning
    2:05:25 over
    2:05:25 what
    2:05:26 that
    2:05:26 other
    2:05:27 system
    2:05:27 what
    2:05:28 was
    2:05:28 going
    2:05:28 to
    2:05:28 be
    2:05:28 the
    2:05:29 part
    2:05:29 that
    2:05:29 was
    2:05:29 going
    2:05:29 to
    2:05:29 be
    2:05:29 separate
    2:05:30 and
    2:05:31 clearly
    2:05:31 everybody
    2:05:31 agreed
    2:05:31 it would
    2:05:32 need
    2:05:32 to have
    2:05:32 a
    2:05:32 different
    2:05:33 economic
    2:05:33 system
    2:05:34 it
    2:05:34 had
    2:05:34 capitalism
    2:05:36 so
    2:05:36 people
    2:05:36 agreed
    2:05:37 on
    2:05:37 that
    2:05:37 but
    2:05:38 there
    2:05:38 was
    2:05:38 tension
    2:05:38 from
    2:05:39 the
    2:05:39 start
    2:05:39 of
    2:05:40 well
    2:05:40 what
    2:05:40 about
    2:05:40 legal
    2:05:41 what
    2:05:41 about
    2:05:42 cultural
    2:05:42 and
    2:05:42 other
    2:05:43 things
    2:05:43 and
    2:05:44 things
    2:05:44 were
    2:05:44 written
    2:05:44 into
    2:05:44 this
    2:05:45 deal
    2:05:45 which
    2:05:45 would
    2:05:45 be
    2:05:46 over
    2:05:46 time
    2:05:47 Hong
    2:05:47 Kong
    2:05:47 people
    2:05:47 would
    2:05:48 govern
    2:05:48 Hong
    2:05:48 Kong
    2:05:49 but
    2:05:50 Beijing
    2:05:50 thought
    2:05:51 they
    2:05:51 would
    2:05:51 govern
    2:05:52 Hong
    2:05:52 Kong
    2:05:52 but
    2:05:52 it
    2:05:53 would
    2:05:53 be
    2:05:53 a
    2:05:53 Hong
    2:05:53 Kong
    2:05:54 person
    2:05:54 who
    2:05:54 who
    2:05:55 Beijing
    2:05:56 played
    2:05:56 a
    2:05:57 role
    2:05:57 in
    2:05:57 choosing
    2:05:58 but
    2:05:58 the
    2:05:59 reason
    2:05:59 why
    2:05:59 Taiwan
    2:06:00 is
    2:06:00 relevant
    2:06:00 to
    2:06:00 all
    2:06:01 this
    2:06:01 is
    2:06:01 in
    2:06:02 1984
    2:06:03 as
    2:06:03 they
    2:06:03 were
    2:06:04 discussing
    2:06:04 this
    2:06:05 the
    2:06:05 Chinese
    2:06:06 Communist Party
    2:06:06 said
    2:06:06 and
    2:06:07 we’ll
    2:06:07 come up
    2:06:07 with
    2:06:07 this
    2:06:08 arrangement
    2:06:08 and
    2:06:08 people
    2:06:09 in
    2:06:09 Taiwan
    2:06:09 should
    2:06:09 pay
    2:06:10 attention
    2:06:10 to
    2:06:10 it
    2:06:11 because
    2:06:11 it
    2:06:11 could
    2:06:12 provide
    2:06:12 a
    2:06:12 model
    2:06:12 for
    2:06:13 what
    2:06:13 could
    2:06:13 happen
    2:06:14 with
    2:06:14 them
    2:06:15 being
    2:06:16 absorbed
    2:06:16 into
    2:06:16 the
    2:06:16 People’s
    2:06:17 Republic
    2:06:17 of
    2:06:17 China
    2:06:18 so
    2:06:19 the
    2:06:19 idea
    2:06:20 was
    2:06:20 Beijing
    2:06:21 said
    2:06:21 hey
    2:06:25 after 1997
    2:06:25 and
    2:06:26 think
    2:06:26 about
    2:06:26 it
    2:06:26 as
    2:06:26 a
    2:06:27 model
    2:06:27 for
    2:06:28 what
    2:06:28 could
    2:06:28 happen
    2:06:28 with
    2:06:29 you
    2:06:29 saying
    2:06:29 like
    2:06:30 watch
    2:06:30 how
    2:06:31 smoothly
    2:06:31 it
    2:06:31 will
    2:06:31 go
    2:06:34 over
    2:06:34 time
    2:06:35 people
    2:06:35 in
    2:06:35 Hong
    2:06:35 Kong
    2:06:38 started
    2:06:38 saying
    2:06:38 well
    2:06:38 wait
    2:06:39 Beijing
    2:06:39 keeps
    2:06:40 nibbling
    2:06:40 away
    2:06:41 at
    2:06:41 chipping
    2:06:41 away
    2:06:42 at
    2:06:42 these
    2:06:42 things
    2:06:42 that
    2:06:42 make
    2:06:43 us
    2:06:43 separate
    2:06:44 and
    2:06:44 especially
    2:06:44 after
    2:06:45 2008
    2:06:47 especially
    2:06:47 I mean
    2:06:47 there were
    2:06:48 reasons
    2:06:48 why
    2:06:49 Beijing
    2:06:49 went
    2:06:50 especially
    2:06:50 light
    2:06:51 on
    2:06:51 Hong
    2:06:51 Kong
    2:06:52 early
    2:06:53 after
    2:06:53 1997
    2:06:55 they
    2:06:55 wanted
    2:06:55 to
    2:06:56 join
    2:06:56 Beijing
    2:06:56 wanted
    2:06:57 to
    2:06:57 join
    2:06:57 WTO
    2:06:58 they
    2:06:58 wanted
    2:06:58 to
    2:06:58 host
    2:06:58 the
    2:06:59 Olympics
    2:06:59 a big
    2:06:59 move
    2:07:00 against
    2:07:00 Hong
    2:07:00 Kong
    2:07:01 then
    2:07:02 could
    2:07:02 have
    2:07:03 endangered
    2:07:03 those
    2:07:04 things
    2:07:05 also
    2:07:05 at
    2:07:05 that
    2:07:05 point
    2:07:05 the
    2:07:06 PRC
    2:07:06 was
    2:07:07 dependent
    2:07:07 heavily
    2:07:08 dependent
    2:07:08 on
    2:07:09 economics
    2:07:09 in
    2:07:10 Hong
    2:07:10 Kong
    2:07:10 the
    2:07:11 Hong
    2:07:11 Kong
    2:07:11 economy
    2:07:12 also
    2:07:12 just
    2:07:13 something
    2:07:13 because
    2:07:13 I’m
    2:07:13 a
    2:07:14 university
    2:07:15 person
    2:07:16 in
    2:07:16 1997
    2:07:16 when
    2:07:17 Hong
    2:07:17 Kong
    2:07:17 became
    2:07:17 part
    2:07:17 of
    2:07:18 the
    2:07:18 People’s
    2:07:18 Republic
    2:07:18 of
    2:07:19 China
    2:07:20 Hong
    2:07:20 Kong
    2:07:20 then
    2:07:21 Hong
    2:07:21 Kong
    2:07:22 universities
    2:07:22 were the
    2:07:22 only
    2:07:23 universities
    2:07:23 in the
    2:07:24 PRC
    2:07:24 that were
    2:07:24 considered
    2:07:25 totally
    2:07:26 world-class
    2:07:27 Hong Kong
    2:07:27 University
    2:07:28 and Chinese
    2:07:28 University
    2:07:28 of Hong
    2:07:29 Kong
    2:07:29 were
    2:07:29 highly
    2:07:30 rated
    2:07:30 institutions
    2:07:31 and at
    2:07:32 that
    2:07:32 point
    2:07:32 Peking
    2:07:33 University
    2:07:34 Beijing
    2:07:34 Beida
    2:07:35 and
    2:07:35 Tsinghua
    2:07:36 were not
    2:07:36 yet
    2:07:37 considered
    2:07:38 world-class
    2:07:38 institutions
    2:07:39 because they
    2:07:39 didn’t have
    2:07:39 the kind
    2:07:39 of
    2:07:40 academic
    2:07:40 freedom
    2:07:42 and
    2:07:42 humanities
    2:07:43 that was
    2:07:44 at that
    2:07:44 point
    2:07:44 needed
    2:07:45 to be
    2:07:45 higher
    2:07:46 ratings
    2:07:47 over
    2:07:47 time
    2:07:49 that
    2:07:49 difference
    2:07:49 started
    2:07:50 to go
    2:07:50 away
    2:07:51 because
    2:07:51 global
    2:07:51 ratings
    2:07:52 of
    2:07:52 universities
    2:07:53 stopped
    2:07:53 caring
    2:07:53 as much
    2:07:54 about
    2:07:55 academic
    2:07:56 freedom
    2:07:56 and things
    2:07:57 like that
    2:07:57 and Beijing
    2:07:58 universities
    2:07:59 surpassed
    2:07:59 Hong Kong
    2:07:59 once
    2:08:00 so by
    2:08:01 the 2010s
    2:08:02 when you
    2:08:03 started to
    2:08:03 have these
    2:08:03 protests
    2:08:04 in Hong
    2:08:04 Kong
    2:08:05 pushing
    2:08:05 back
    2:08:06 against
    2:08:06 what was
    2:08:06 called
    2:08:08 mainlandization
    2:08:08 and sort
    2:08:08 of clamping
    2:08:09 down
    2:08:11 Hong Kong
    2:08:11 protesters
    2:08:12 in 2014
    2:08:13 put up
    2:08:14 a banner
    2:08:15 at the time
    2:08:16 when Beijing
    2:08:16 was holding
    2:08:17 the line
    2:08:17 against
    2:08:18 Hong Kong
    2:08:19 people wanted
    2:08:19 to have
    2:08:20 real elections
    2:08:22 to choose
    2:08:23 the chief
    2:08:23 executive
    2:08:24 rather than
    2:08:24 a kind
    2:08:25 of one
    2:08:25 where there
    2:08:26 were elections
    2:08:27 but only
    2:08:27 people who
    2:08:28 Beijing
    2:08:29 approved of
    2:08:29 basically
    2:08:30 could run
    2:08:32 Hong Kong
    2:08:32 activists
    2:08:33 put up
    2:08:33 a banner
    2:08:33 saying
    2:08:33 hey
    2:08:34 Taiwan
    2:08:35 look at
    2:08:35 Hong Kong
    2:08:36 Taiwan
    2:08:36 beware
    2:08:38 Hong Kong’s
    2:08:38 today
    2:08:39 could be
    2:08:39 Taiwan’s
    2:08:40 tomorrow
    2:08:41 so basically
    2:08:42 spinning the
    2:08:43 one country
    2:08:43 two systems
    2:08:44 argument
    2:08:44 and saying
    2:08:45 yeah
    2:08:45 Taiwan
    2:08:46 you should
    2:08:47 watch
    2:08:47 what happens
    2:08:48 here
    2:08:49 so
    2:08:51 one way
    2:08:51 to think
    2:08:52 of
    2:08:53 Chinese
    2:08:53 leaders
    2:08:53 since
    2:08:54 Mao
    2:08:54 is
    2:08:55 that Mao
    2:08:56 and
    2:08:56 those
    2:08:57 after him
    2:08:57 wanted
    2:08:57 to
    2:08:59 make
    2:08:59 China
    2:08:59 bigger
    2:09:00 territorially
    2:09:01 than it
    2:09:01 had been
    2:09:01 to try
    2:09:02 to reclaim
    2:09:02 land
    2:09:04 under
    2:09:04 Mao
    2:09:06 Tibet
    2:09:07 which had
    2:09:07 been
    2:09:08 not
    2:09:09 part
    2:09:09 of
    2:09:10 China
    2:09:11 became
    2:09:11 part
    2:09:11 of the
    2:09:12 People’s
    2:09:12 Republic
    2:09:12 of China
    2:09:14 Mao
    2:09:14 offered
    2:09:14 something
    2:09:15 a little
    2:09:15 bit like
    2:09:15 one country
    2:09:16 two systems
    2:09:17 to it
    2:09:19 Isabel
    2:09:19 Hilton
    2:09:20 who writes
    2:09:20 wonderfully
    2:09:20 about
    2:09:21 Tibet
    2:09:21 has talked
    2:09:21 about
    2:09:22 the
    2:09:22 parallels
    2:09:22 with
    2:09:23 the
    2:09:23 Hong
    2:09:23 Kong
    2:09:23 system
    2:09:24 and
    2:09:24 some
    2:09:24 Hong
    2:09:24 Kong
    2:09:25 activists
    2:09:25 saw
    2:09:26 parallels
    2:09:26 as well
    2:09:27 Tibet
    2:09:28 was supposed
    2:09:28 to go
    2:09:29 its own
    2:09:29 way
    2:09:30 as part
    2:09:30 of the
    2:09:30 People’s
    2:09:31 Republic
    2:09:31 of China
    2:09:32 in the
    2:09:32 1950s
    2:09:33 and then
    2:09:33 by 1959
    2:09:35 the center
    2:09:37 got restless
    2:09:37 tried to
    2:09:38 interfere more
    2:09:39 local people
    2:09:40 pushed back
    2:09:41 against it
    2:09:42 and a workable
    2:09:43 what seemed
    2:09:44 like it might
    2:09:45 work out
    2:09:45 somehow
    2:09:46 against all
    2:09:46 odds
    2:09:48 explodes
    2:09:48 and the
    2:09:49 Dalai Lama
    2:09:50 goes into
    2:09:50 exile
    2:09:51 the Dalai Lama
    2:09:51 who before
    2:09:52 that had
    2:09:52 thought maybe
    2:09:52 he and
    2:09:53 Mao could
    2:09:53 work
    2:09:54 together
    2:09:55 that didn’t
    2:09:56 work
    2:09:57 Hong Kong
    2:09:58 a new
    2:09:58 version of
    2:09:59 the experiment
    2:10:00 happens
    2:10:00 and it
    2:10:01 becomes clear
    2:10:01 in the
    2:10:02 2010s
    2:10:02 that it’s
    2:10:03 not really
    2:10:04 workable
    2:10:04 that
    2:10:05 the center
    2:10:06 is less
    2:10:06 patient
    2:10:07 needs Hong
    2:10:07 Kong
    2:10:08 less
    2:10:09 the Hong
    2:10:09 Kong
    2:10:10 people feel
    2:10:10 it’s more
    2:10:11 of a sort
    2:10:11 of now
    2:10:12 or never
    2:10:13 period
    2:10:13 to push
    2:10:14 back
    2:10:14 you could
    2:10:15 say that
    2:10:15 Deng Xiaoping
    2:10:17 oversaw
    2:10:17 the deal
    2:10:18 that got
    2:10:18 Hong Kong
    2:10:19 and Macau
    2:10:20 to become
    2:10:20 part of the
    2:10:21 People’s
    2:10:21 Republic of
    2:10:21 China
    2:10:22 he could
    2:10:23 point to
    2:10:23 that
    2:10:24 even though
    2:10:25 he died
    2:10:26 right before
    2:10:27 during 1997
    2:10:30 but he had
    2:10:31 achieved that
    2:10:32 kind of deal
    2:10:34 Xi Jinping
    2:10:35 could argue
    2:10:36 you could argue
    2:10:38 he finished
    2:10:38 the deal
    2:10:39 of making
    2:10:39 Hong Kong
    2:10:40 fully a part
    2:10:40 of the
    2:10:41 People’s
    2:10:41 Republic of
    2:10:41 China
    2:10:42 doing away
    2:10:43 with this
    2:10:44 degree of
    2:10:44 difference
    2:10:46 and you
    2:10:46 could say
    2:10:47 that that
    2:10:47 is a
    2:10:48 stepping stone
    2:10:48 toward Taiwan
    2:10:50 or you
    2:10:50 could say
    2:10:51 that that
    2:10:51 and the
    2:10:52 South China
    2:10:52 Sea
    2:10:53 islands
    2:10:54 build up
    2:10:56 might be
    2:10:56 enough for
    2:10:57 him to put
    2:10:57 his stamp
    2:10:58 on having
    2:10:59 been the
    2:10:59 kind of
    2:11:00 leader who
    2:11:00 expanded
    2:11:02 Beijing’s
    2:11:02 reach
    2:11:03 he probably
    2:11:04 wants
    2:11:04 but I mean
    2:11:05 you know
    2:11:05 he probably
    2:11:06 to the extent
    2:11:06 he would
    2:11:07 like Taiwan
    2:11:07 to become
    2:11:09 part of the
    2:11:09 People’s
    2:11:10 Republic of
    2:11:10 China
    2:11:10 which
    2:11:10 has never
    2:11:11 been
    2:11:13 but the
    2:11:14 hope was
    2:11:14 it could
    2:11:15 happen
    2:11:15 through a
    2:11:15 kind of
    2:11:16 more gradual
    2:11:17 absorption
    2:11:17 and people
    2:11:19 in Taiwan
    2:11:20 being willing
    2:11:20 to think
    2:11:21 of that
    2:11:21 and yet
    2:11:23 in part
    2:11:23 because of
    2:11:23 what’s
    2:11:24 happened
    2:11:24 to places
    2:11:25 like Hong
    2:11:25 Kong
    2:11:25 there’s a
    2:11:26 fiercer
    2:11:27 a stronger
    2:11:28 sense of
    2:11:28 Taiwan
    2:11:29 identity
    2:11:30 now than
    2:11:31 there was
    2:11:31 at an
    2:11:31 earlier point
    2:11:32 and less
    2:11:33 parties that
    2:11:34 are more
    2:11:35 willing to
    2:11:36 try to
    2:11:38 negotiate
    2:11:38 some kind
    2:11:39 of
    2:11:40 tighter
    2:11:40 connection
    2:11:41 to the
    2:11:41 PRC
    2:11:42 are often
    2:11:43 doing badly
    2:11:44 and elections
    2:11:44 there because
    2:11:46 of this
    2:11:46 of this
    2:11:47 mood
    2:11:50 2047 is
    2:11:50 50 years
    2:11:51 from the
    2:11:52 1997
    2:11:53 handover
    2:11:53 that you
    2:11:53 were talking
    2:11:54 about with
    2:11:54 Hong Kong
    2:11:55 on top
    2:11:55 of that
    2:11:57 2049
    2:11:58 is 100
    2:11:59 years
    2:11:59 from
    2:12:00 outtaking
    2:12:00 power
    2:12:01 it feels
    2:12:02 like at
    2:12:02 that moment
    2:12:03 China could
    2:12:03 take Taiwan
    2:12:04 because it
    2:12:05 does seem
    2:12:05 that there’s
    2:12:06 a kind
    2:12:07 of value
    2:12:08 for history
    2:12:08 in China
    2:12:09 and they
    2:12:10 take these
    2:12:10 days very
    2:12:11 seriously
    2:12:12 on the
    2:12:13 other hand
    2:12:14 as you
    2:12:14 have studied
    2:12:15 there is
    2:12:16 some tensions
    2:12:17 and displeasure
    2:12:18 and protests
    2:12:19 some of the
    2:12:20 biggest in human
    2:12:21 history in
    2:12:22 Hong Kong
    2:12:23 and so like
    2:12:23 put all that
    2:12:24 together
    2:12:26 and so
    2:12:26 many possible
    2:12:27 trajectories of
    2:12:28 human history
    2:12:28 could happen
    2:12:29 here
    2:12:29 yeah
    2:12:30 I mean
    2:12:30 I’m particularly
    2:12:31 interested in
    2:12:32 youth movements
    2:12:32 and
    2:12:34 one of the
    2:12:35 things about
    2:12:35 I think
    2:12:36 generation
    2:12:37 is such
    2:12:37 an important
    2:12:38 factor
    2:12:38 and people
    2:12:39 know that
    2:12:40 generation is
    2:12:40 important
    2:12:41 but somehow
    2:12:44 sometimes
    2:12:45 people think
    2:12:45 that if you
    2:12:46 divide people
    2:12:46 up into
    2:12:47 economic groups
    2:12:48 you divide
    2:12:48 people up
    2:12:49 into racial
    2:12:49 or ethnic
    2:12:49 class
    2:12:50 that that
    2:12:50 groups
    2:12:51 that that
    2:12:51 somehow
    2:12:52 is more
    2:12:52 tangible
    2:12:53 but I think
    2:12:54 with things
    2:12:54 like the
    2:12:54 Hong Kong
    2:12:55 protests
    2:12:55 that there
    2:12:56 was a
    2:12:56 process
    2:12:57 of
    2:13:00 what was
    2:13:00 seen as
    2:13:01 mainlandization
    2:13:02 of Beijing
    2:13:02 just
    2:13:04 moving to
    2:13:06 make the
    2:13:06 things that
    2:13:08 were really
    2:13:08 distinctive about
    2:13:09 Hong Kong
    2:13:09 less distinctive
    2:13:10 and minimizing
    2:13:11 the differences
    2:13:14 and this
    2:13:14 process
    2:13:16 sped up
    2:13:16 dramatically
    2:13:17 after the
    2:13:17 2019
    2:13:18 protests
    2:13:18 and there
    2:13:18 was just
    2:13:19 partly with
    2:13:20 the distraction
    2:13:20 of COVID
    2:13:22 and the
    2:13:22 distraction
    2:13:22 of the
    2:13:23 world
    2:13:23 there was
    2:13:23 this
    2:13:24 imposition
    2:13:24 of this
    2:13:24 national
    2:13:25 security
    2:13:25 law
    2:13:25 that
    2:13:26 basically
    2:13:26 did away
    2:13:27 with the
    2:13:28 differences
    2:13:28 and you
    2:13:29 had some
    2:13:29 people
    2:13:30 in
    2:13:32 the city
    2:13:33 of an
    2:13:33 older
    2:13:34 generation
    2:13:34 saying
    2:13:35 why couldn’t
    2:13:35 they have
    2:13:36 just been
    2:13:36 more patient
    2:13:37 why did
    2:13:38 these protests
    2:13:39 force the
    2:13:40 hand of
    2:13:41 the people
    2:13:42 in power
    2:13:44 but I think
    2:13:46 that age
    2:13:46 has a lot
    2:13:47 to do
    2:13:47 with it
    2:13:47 that if
    2:13:48 there was
    2:13:48 this kind
    2:13:49 of gradual
    2:13:49 erosion
    2:13:50 or there
    2:13:50 was going
    2:13:50 to be
    2:13:51 this process
    2:13:52 of doing
    2:13:52 away with
    2:13:53 the things
    2:13:53 that made
    2:13:54 Hong Kong
    2:13:55 really special
    2:13:56 and that
    2:13:56 people loved
    2:13:57 passionately
    2:13:57 about it
    2:13:58 including
    2:13:59 this sort
    2:13:59 of freer
    2:14:00 press
    2:14:01 or just
    2:14:01 freer
    2:14:03 associational
    2:14:03 life
    2:14:03 and things
    2:14:04 like that
    2:14:05 if you
    2:14:05 were
    2:14:06 17
    2:14:07 in
    2:14:08 2019
    2:14:09 and people
    2:14:09 were saying
    2:14:10 by
    2:14:13 2047
    2:14:13 it will
    2:14:13 all be
    2:14:14 gone
    2:14:15 or maybe
    2:14:15 it will
    2:14:15 even
    2:14:16 all be
    2:14:16 gone
    2:14:16 in 10
    2:14:17 years
    2:14:18 then you’re
    2:14:18 talking about
    2:14:19 living most
    2:14:19 of your
    2:14:19 life
    2:14:20 in a
    2:14:20 Hong Kong
    2:14:21 that isn’t
    2:14:22 the Hong Kong
    2:14:22 you really
    2:14:23 love
    2:14:24 whereas if
    2:14:24 you were
    2:14:25 80
    2:14:26 you were
    2:14:26 like
    2:14:27 why can’t
    2:14:28 be patient
    2:14:28 and people
    2:14:29 in between
    2:14:29 had all
    2:14:30 kinds of
    2:14:30 other things
    2:14:31 this is one
    2:14:31 thing that
    2:14:32 leads to
    2:14:33 often
    2:14:34 kind of
    2:14:34 logically
    2:14:35 there’s a
    2:14:36 rationality
    2:14:37 toward younger
    2:14:38 people being
    2:14:39 more militant
    2:14:39 about certain
    2:14:40 kinds of
    2:14:40 things
    2:14:41 I think
    2:14:41 we see
    2:14:41 the same
    2:14:42 thing
    2:14:42 with
    2:14:43 climate
    2:14:43 change
    2:14:43 with
    2:14:44 climate
    2:14:44 activism
    2:14:45 you’re
    2:14:45 talking
    2:14:46 about
    2:14:46 whatever
    2:14:47 projection
    2:14:47 is of
    2:14:48 when
    2:14:48 things
    2:14:48 are
    2:14:48 going
    2:14:49 to get
    2:14:49 worse
    2:14:50 further
    2:14:50 down
    2:14:51 the
    2:14:51 younger
    2:14:51 you
    2:14:51 are
    2:14:52 the
    2:14:52 more
    2:14:52 of
    2:14:52 your
    2:14:53 life
    2:14:53 is
    2:14:53 going
    2:14:53 to
    2:14:53 live
    2:14:53 in
    2:14:54 that
    2:14:55 scenario
    2:14:55 and
    2:14:55 there’s
    2:14:55 a
    2:14:56 logic
    2:14:56 for
    2:14:57 more
    2:14:57 of
    2:14:58 that
    2:14:58 kind
    2:14:58 of
    2:15:00 impatience
    2:15:00 there’s
    2:15:01 also a
    2:15:01 sense
    2:15:01 of
    2:15:02 frustration
    2:15:03 with
    2:15:04 an
    2:15:04 older
    2:15:04 generation
    2:15:05 not
    2:15:05 having
    2:15:05 done
    2:15:06 enough
    2:15:06 to
    2:15:06 resolve
    2:15:07 issues
    2:15:08 these
    2:15:08 are
    2:15:08 things
    2:15:09 with
    2:15:10 Hong Kong
    2:15:10 with
    2:15:10 climate
    2:15:11 change
    2:15:11 with
    2:15:12 Thailand
    2:15:13 the
    2:15:13 place
    2:15:14 that I’ve
    2:15:14 been
    2:15:14 working
    2:15:14 on
    2:15:15 lately
    2:15:15 one
    2:15:15 of
    2:15:16 the
    2:15:16 slogans
    2:15:16 in
    2:15:17 2020
    2:15:17 when
    2:15:17 there
    2:15:17 was
    2:15:17 a
    2:15:18 push
    2:15:18 for
    2:15:19 democracy
    2:15:19 was
    2:15:20 let
    2:15:20 it
    2:15:20 end
    2:15:20 with
    2:15:21 this
    2:15:21 generation
    2:15:22 which
    2:15:22 again
    2:15:23 expressed
    2:15:23 this
    2:15:23 kind
    2:15:23 of
    2:15:24 sense
    2:15:24 of
    2:15:26 gradual
    2:15:27 solutions
    2:15:27 are
    2:15:28 fine
    2:15:28 but
    2:15:30 we’re
    2:15:30 carrying
    2:15:30 more
    2:15:31 of a
    2:15:31 burden
    2:15:31 of
    2:15:31 what
    2:15:32 we’re
    2:15:32 going
    2:15:32 to
    2:15:32 live
    2:15:32 with
    2:15:32 that
    2:15:34 so
    2:15:34 in
    2:15:35 2019
    2:15:35 also
    2:15:35 the
    2:15:36 protests
    2:15:36 I mean
    2:15:37 some
    2:15:37 of
    2:15:37 the
    2:15:37 things
    2:15:37 that
    2:15:37 were
    2:15:38 being
    2:15:39 chipped
    2:15:39 away
    2:15:40 at
    2:15:40 by
    2:15:40 Beijing
    2:15:41 in
    2:15:41 2012
    2:15:42 there
    2:15:42 was
    2:15:54 an
    2:15:55 protestors
    2:15:55 that
    2:15:56 year
    2:15:56 young
    2:15:56 people
    2:15:57 stood
    2:15:57 up
    2:15:57 and
    2:15:57 actually
    2:15:57 got
    2:15:58 the
    2:15:58 government
    2:15:58 to
    2:15:58 blink
    2:15:59 the
    2:15:59 local
    2:16:00 authorities
    2:16:00 back
    2:16:01 down
    2:16:01 on
    2:16:01 that
    2:16:02 bringing
    2:16:02 in
    2:16:02 mainland
    2:16:02 style
    2:16:03 education
    2:16:04 2014
    2:16:04 the
    2:16:05 protest
    2:16:05 was
    2:16:06 to
    2:16:06 try
    2:16:06 to
    2:16:06 get
    2:16:08 full
    2:16:08 voting
    2:16:08 rights
    2:16:08 for
    2:16:09 the
    2:16:09 chief
    2:16:10 executive
    2:16:11 the
    2:16:11 government
    2:16:11 didn’t
    2:16:12 blink
    2:16:12 on
    2:16:12 that
    2:16:12 that
    2:16:13 was
    2:16:13 something
    2:16:13 where
    2:16:14 they
    2:16:14 held
    2:16:14 the
    2:16:14 line
    2:16:14 it
    2:16:14 was
    2:16:16 big
    2:16:16 colorful
    2:16:17 exciting
    2:16:17 protest
    2:16:18 but
    2:16:18 in
    2:16:18 the
    2:16:19 end
    2:16:19 it
    2:16:19 hit
    2:16:20 a
    2:16:20 dead
    2:16:20 end
    2:16:22 2019
    2:16:22 there
    2:16:22 are
    2:16:22 even
    2:16:23 bigger
    2:16:23 protests
    2:16:23 and
    2:16:24 at
    2:16:24 first
    2:16:24 it
    2:16:25 seems
    2:16:27 surprising
    2:16:27 what
    2:16:27 the
    2:16:27 issue
    2:16:28 was
    2:16:28 the
    2:16:28 issue
    2:16:29 was
    2:16:29 an
    2:16:29 extradition
    2:16:30 law
    2:16:31 that
    2:16:31 would
    2:16:32 have
    2:16:32 people
    2:16:33 potentially
    2:16:33 who
    2:16:33 committed
    2:16:34 crimes
    2:16:34 in
    2:16:34 Hong
    2:16:35 Kong
    2:16:36 being
    2:16:36 tried
    2:16:37 for
    2:16:37 them
    2:16:37 if
    2:16:38 the
    2:16:38 mainland
    2:16:38 wanted
    2:16:38 them
    2:16:39 on
    2:16:39 the
    2:16:39 mainland
    2:16:40 now
    2:16:40 the
    2:16:41 difference
    2:16:41 they’re
    2:16:41 really
    2:16:42 different
    2:16:42 court
    2:16:43 systems
    2:16:43 Hong
    2:16:43 Kong
    2:16:44 never
    2:16:44 had
    2:16:45 democracy
    2:16:46 under
    2:16:46 the
    2:16:46 British
    2:16:47 but
    2:16:47 it
    2:16:47 did
    2:16:47 have
    2:16:47 a
    2:16:48 stronger
    2:16:48 rule
    2:16:48 of
    2:16:49 law
    2:16:49 and
    2:16:49 more
    2:16:50 independent
    2:16:50 courts
    2:16:51 courts
    2:16:51 that
    2:16:51 sometimes
    2:16:52 decided
    2:16:52 things
    2:16:53 that
    2:16:54 went
    2:16:54 the
    2:16:54 other
    2:16:54 way
    2:16:54 than
    2:16:55 what
    2:16:55 the
    2:16:56 government
    2:16:57 wanted
    2:16:58 and
    2:16:59 the
    2:16:59 mainland
    2:16:59 doesn’t
    2:17:00 have
    2:17:00 that
    2:17:00 kind
    2:17:00 of
    2:17:00 court
    2:17:01 system
    2:17:02 98
    2:17:02 99
    2:17:03 percent
    2:17:04 conviction
    2:17:04 rate
    2:17:05 in
    2:17:05 Hong
    2:17:05 Kong
    2:17:05 if
    2:17:06 you’re
    2:17:07 arrested
    2:17:07 even
    2:17:07 for
    2:17:09 before
    2:17:09 2020
    2:17:10 if
    2:17:10 you were
    2:17:11 arrested
    2:17:11 even
    2:17:11 under
    2:17:11 a
    2:17:12 kind
    2:17:12 of
    2:17:12 politically
    2:17:13 related
    2:17:13 charge
    2:17:13 you
    2:17:13 were
    2:17:13 out
    2:17:14 on
    2:17:14 bail
    2:17:14 and
    2:17:14 giving
    2:17:16 interviews
    2:17:16 with
    2:17:16 the
    2:17:16 press
    2:17:17 on
    2:17:17 the
    2:17:17 mainland
    2:17:17 that
    2:17:17 didn’t
    2:17:18 happen
    2:17:19 so
    2:17:19 I
    2:17:19 think
    2:17:20 in
    2:17:20 2019
    2:17:21 having
    2:17:21 even
    2:17:22 having
    2:17:22 lost
    2:17:22 the
    2:17:23 battle
    2:17:23 over
    2:17:24 voting
    2:17:26 this
    2:17:26 idea
    2:17:26 that
    2:17:27 okay
    2:17:28 we’ve
    2:17:28 really
    2:17:28 got to
    2:17:29 take a
    2:17:29 last
    2:17:29 stand
    2:17:29 to
    2:17:30 defend
    2:17:30 the
    2:17:30 rule
    2:17:30 of
    2:17:31 law
    2:17:31 and
    2:17:31 a
    2:17:31 kind
    2:17:31 of
    2:17:32 degree
    2:17:32 of
    2:17:32 separation
    2:17:32 of
    2:17:33 powers
    2:17:34 that
    2:17:34 doesn’t
    2:17:35 sound
    2:17:35 like
    2:17:35 a
    2:17:36 clearly
    2:17:37 obvious
    2:17:37 thing
    2:17:37 for
    2:17:38 slogans
    2:17:38 but
    2:17:38 it
    2:17:38 is
    2:17:39 something
    2:17:39 that
    2:17:39 I
    2:17:39 think
    2:17:39 we’ve
    2:17:40 realized
    2:17:42 in
    2:17:42 this
    2:17:42 country
    2:17:43 and
    2:17:43 in
    2:17:43 other
    2:17:43 countries
    2:17:44 as
    2:17:44 well
    2:17:44 is
    2:17:44 something
    2:17:45 that
    2:17:45 can
    2:17:46 really
    2:17:46 be
    2:17:46 definitive
    2:17:47 about
    2:17:47 where
    2:17:48 things
    2:17:48 are
    2:17:48 going
    2:17:49 politically
    2:17:49 well
    2:17:50 I
    2:17:50 should
    2:17:50 also
    2:17:50 say
    2:17:51 I
    2:17:51 mean
    2:17:51 this
    2:17:52 it’s
    2:17:52 more
    2:17:53 dramatic
    2:17:53 than
    2:17:53 it
    2:17:53 sounds
    2:17:54 with
    2:17:54 extradition
    2:17:54 because
    2:17:55 it
    2:17:55 gives
    2:17:56 power
    2:17:58 to
    2:17:58 mainland
    2:17:59 China
    2:18:00 to
    2:18:02 imprison
    2:18:02 sort of
    2:18:02 political
    2:18:03 activists
    2:18:04 and then
    2:18:05 try them
    2:18:05 in a
    2:18:05 very
    2:18:05 different
    2:18:06 way
    2:18:06 so
    2:18:06 it’s
    2:18:06 not
    2:18:06 just
    2:18:06 even
    2:18:07 a
    2:18:07 different
    2:18:07 system
    2:18:08 it
    2:18:08 gives
    2:18:09 another
    2:18:09 lever
    2:18:10 and a
    2:18:10 powerful
    2:18:10 one
    2:18:11 to
    2:18:11 punish
    2:18:12 people
    2:18:12 that
    2:18:12 speak
    2:18:13 against
    2:18:14 China
    2:18:14 and
    2:18:15 you know
    2:18:15 I
    2:18:16 mentioned
    2:18:16 the
    2:18:16 Hong
    2:18:16 Kong
    2:18:17 booksellers
    2:18:18 who
    2:18:18 were
    2:18:18 spirited
    2:18:19 over
    2:18:19 the
    2:18:19 border
    2:18:19 and
    2:18:20 one
    2:18:20 of
    2:18:20 them
    2:18:20 was
    2:18:20 still
    2:18:20 in
    2:18:21 prison
    2:18:21 for
    2:18:21 having
    2:18:22 published
    2:18:22 things
    2:18:22 in
    2:18:23 Hong
    2:18:23 Kong
    2:18:24 that
    2:18:24 it
    2:18:24 was
    2:18:24 supposed
    2:18:24 to be
    2:18:25 okay
    2:18:25 to
    2:18:25 publish
    2:18:25 in
    2:18:25 Hong
    2:18:26 Kong
    2:18:26 but
    2:18:26 not
    2:18:26 on
    2:18:26 the
    2:18:27 mainland
    2:18:27 and yet
    2:18:28 they
    2:18:28 ended up
    2:18:29 being
    2:18:29 charged
    2:18:30 so
    2:18:30 yeah
    2:18:30 there
    2:18:30 was
    2:18:30 a
    2:18:31 clear
    2:18:31 sense
    2:18:31 that
    2:18:32 if
    2:18:32 if
    2:18:34 they
    2:18:35 didn’t
    2:18:35 protest
    2:18:35 then
    2:18:36 would
    2:18:36 they
    2:18:36 be
    2:18:36 able
    2:18:36 to
    2:18:37 protest
    2:18:37 later
    2:18:38 so
    2:18:38 this
    2:18:38 was
    2:18:39 one
    2:18:39 of
    2:18:40 maybe
    2:18:40 the
    2:18:41 biggest
    2:18:41 protests
    2:18:42 in
    2:18:42 history
    2:18:43 percentage
    2:18:49 a million
    2:18:50 to two
    2:18:50 million
    2:18:50 people
    2:18:51 in the
    2:18:51 biggest
    2:18:52 protests
    2:18:52 and this
    2:18:52 is a
    2:18:53 7.5
    2:18:54 million
    2:18:55 people
    2:18:55 so if
    2:18:56 you think
    2:18:56 about what
    2:18:57 that means
    2:18:57 it’s
    2:18:59 it’s just
    2:18:59 enormous
    2:19:00 I mean
    2:19:00 yeah
    2:19:00 there
    2:19:00 were
    2:19:01 some
    2:19:01 very
    2:19:01 daring
    2:19:02 protests
    2:19:03 around
    2:19:04 that
    2:19:04 period
    2:19:04 the
    2:19:04 Hong
    2:19:05 Kong
    2:19:05 ones
    2:19:05 and
    2:19:05 the
    2:19:06 year
    2:19:06 after
    2:19:06 that
    2:19:07 there
    2:19:07 were
    2:19:08 protests
    2:19:08 in other
    2:19:08 places
    2:19:08 but
    2:19:09 protests
    2:19:09 in
    2:19:09 Belarus
    2:19:10 where
    2:19:10 again
    2:19:11 there
    2:19:11 was
    2:19:13 taking
    2:19:13 big
    2:19:14 risks
    2:19:14 but
    2:19:15 if
    2:19:15 people
    2:19:15 have
    2:19:15 a
    2:19:16 feeling
    2:19:16 that
    2:19:16 it’s
    2:19:16 a
    2:19:16 kind
    2:19:17 of
    2:19:18 last
    2:19:19 moment
    2:19:20 so
    2:19:20 yeah
    2:19:20 these
    2:19:20 were
    2:19:21 giant
    2:19:21 and
    2:19:22 the
    2:19:22 protests
    2:19:22 kept
    2:19:23 growing
    2:19:24 and
    2:19:24 I
    2:19:24 think
    2:19:25 they
    2:19:25 kept
    2:19:26 growing
    2:19:26 in
    2:19:26 part
    2:19:26 and
    2:19:26 this
    2:19:27 happens
    2:19:27 why
    2:19:28 protests
    2:19:28 grow
    2:19:30 it’s
    2:19:30 always
    2:19:30 hard
    2:19:30 to
    2:19:30 figure
    2:19:31 out
    2:19:31 but
    2:19:31 in
    2:19:32 the
    2:19:32 case
    2:19:32 of
    2:19:34 Hong
    2:19:34 Kong
    2:19:36 2019
    2:19:37 if
    2:19:38 people
    2:19:38 feel
    2:19:39 that
    2:19:39 the
    2:19:39 sort
    2:19:39 of
    2:19:40 protesters
    2:19:40 have
    2:19:40 the
    2:19:41 moral
    2:19:41 high
    2:19:42 ground
    2:19:42 in
    2:19:42 one
    2:19:42 way
    2:19:42 or
    2:19:42 another
    2:19:43 and
    2:19:43 what
    2:19:44 tipped
    2:19:44 it
    2:19:44 that
    2:19:44 way
    2:19:44 in
    2:19:44 Hong
    2:19:45 Kong
    2:19:45 I
    2:19:45 think
    2:19:45 was
    2:19:45 really
    2:19:46 that
    2:19:46 the
    2:19:47 police
    2:19:47 were
    2:19:47 using
    2:19:47 really
    2:19:48 strong
    2:19:48 armed
    2:19:49 methods
    2:19:49 and
    2:19:50 the
    2:19:50 government
    2:19:50 was
    2:19:51 never
    2:19:52 apologizing
    2:19:53 or
    2:19:53 never
    2:19:54 saying
    2:19:54 we
    2:19:54 need
    2:19:54 to
    2:19:55 investigate
    2:19:55 that
    2:19:56 and
    2:19:56 I
    2:19:56 think
    2:19:56 what
    2:19:57 really
    2:19:57 kept
    2:19:57 the
    2:19:58 protests
    2:19:58 going
    2:19:58 was
    2:19:58 they
    2:19:59 became
    2:20:00 a
    2:20:01 referendum
    2:20:02 on
    2:20:02 the
    2:20:02 right
    2:20:02 to
    2:20:03 protest
    2:20:03 itself
    2:20:05 and
    2:20:05 the
    2:20:07 what
    2:20:07 I
    2:20:07 think
    2:20:07 the
    2:20:07 government
    2:20:08 hoped
    2:20:08 and
    2:20:08 what
    2:20:09 Beijing
    2:20:09 certainly
    2:20:09 hoped
    2:20:10 was
    2:20:10 that
    2:20:10 some
    2:20:10 of
    2:20:10 the
    2:20:11 protesters
    2:20:11 would
    2:20:11 start
    2:20:12 doing
    2:20:14 militant
    2:20:15 actions
    2:20:15 violent
    2:20:15 actions
    2:20:16 that
    2:20:16 would
    2:20:16 alienate
    2:20:17 the
    2:20:17 populace
    2:20:17 from
    2:20:18 the
    2:20:18 protests
    2:20:20 and
    2:20:20 the
    2:20:20 protesters
    2:20:21 did
    2:20:21 do
    2:20:21 some
    2:20:22 of
    2:20:22 those
    2:20:22 things
    2:20:22 but
    2:20:22 they
    2:20:23 tended
    2:20:23 to
    2:20:23 attack
    2:20:24 the
    2:20:25 violence
    2:20:25 was
    2:20:25 often
    2:20:25 against
    2:20:26 property
    2:20:27 and
    2:20:27 when
    2:20:27 there
    2:20:27 were
    2:20:28 occasionally
    2:20:28 violence
    2:20:29 against
    2:20:29 people
    2:20:30 people
    2:20:30 within
    2:20:31 the
    2:20:31 movement
    2:20:31 would
    2:20:32 apologize
    2:20:32 or try
    2:20:32 to
    2:20:33 distance
    2:20:33 themselves
    2:20:33 from
    2:20:33 that
    2:20:34 meanwhile
    2:20:35 the
    2:20:35 government
    2:20:35 was
    2:20:36 never
    2:20:37 apologizing
    2:20:37 or
    2:20:37 distancing
    2:20:38 itself
    2:20:38 from
    2:20:38 the
    2:20:39 police
    2:20:40 and
    2:20:40 that
    2:20:41 created
    2:20:41 a
    2:20:42 dynamic
    2:20:42 where
    2:20:42 you
    2:20:42 had
    2:20:43 these
    2:20:43 enormous
    2:20:43 numbers
    2:20:44 of
    2:20:44 people
    2:20:44 who
    2:20:45 were
    2:20:46 previously
    2:20:46 on
    2:20:46 the
    2:20:46 fence
    2:20:46 about
    2:20:47 things
    2:20:48 turning
    2:20:48 up
    2:20:48 for
    2:20:49 these
    2:20:49 protests
    2:20:49 and
    2:20:50 leading
    2:20:50 to
    2:20:51 them
    2:20:51 being
    2:20:51 giant
    2:20:52 even
    2:20:52 people
    2:20:52 and
    2:20:53 this
    2:20:53 was
    2:20:53 a
    2:20:53 city
    2:20:53 that
    2:20:55 sometimes
    2:20:55 had
    2:20:55 the
    2:20:56 reputation
    2:20:56 misunderstood
    2:20:57 reputation
    2:20:58 as being
    2:20:58 one that
    2:20:59 where people
    2:20:59 didn’t care
    2:20:59 that much
    2:20:59 that much
    2:21:00 about
    2:21:00 politics
    2:21:00 they
    2:21:01 just
    2:21:01 focused
    2:21:01 on
    2:21:02 living
    2:21:02 a
    2:21:03 good
    2:21:03 life
    2:21:03 but
    2:21:04 there
    2:21:04 was
    2:21:04 a
    2:21:04 sense
    2:21:04 that
    2:21:05 they
    2:21:05 wouldn’t
    2:21:05 have
    2:21:06 that
    2:21:06 possibility
    2:21:07 if
    2:21:08 you
    2:21:08 had
    2:21:08 a
    2:21:08 police
    2:21:08 and
    2:21:08 the
    2:21:09 police
    2:21:09 used
    2:21:09 to
    2:21:09 be
    2:21:10 really
    2:21:10 highly
    2:21:10 respected
    2:21:11 in
    2:21:11 Hong Kong
    2:21:11 but
    2:21:11 it
    2:21:12 lost
    2:21:13 that
    2:21:14 maybe
    2:21:14 you
    2:21:14 can
    2:21:15 speak
    2:21:16 to
    2:21:16 some
    2:21:16 of
    2:21:16 the
    2:21:16 dynamics
    2:21:17 of
    2:21:17 this
    2:21:17 first
    2:21:17 of
    2:21:18 you
    2:21:18 were
    2:21:18 there
    2:21:18 in
    2:21:18 the
    2:21:19 early
    2:21:19 days
    2:21:20 as I
    2:21:20 understand
    2:21:21 how
    2:21:21 does
    2:21:22 the
    2:21:22 protest
    2:21:22 of
    2:21:23 this
    2:21:23 scale
    2:21:26 explode
    2:21:27 as it
    2:21:27 did
    2:21:28 like
    2:21:28 it
    2:21:28 starts
    2:21:29 with
    2:21:29 small
    2:21:30 groups
    2:21:30 of
    2:21:30 students
    2:21:31 of
    2:21:31 the
    2:21:31 youth
    2:21:32 like
    2:21:32 maybe
    2:21:32 you
    2:21:33 can
    2:21:33 speak
    2:21:33 to
    2:21:33 in
    2:21:33 general
    2:21:34 from
    2:21:34 all
    2:21:34 the
    2:21:34 studying
    2:21:34 of
    2:21:35 youth
    2:21:35 protests
    2:21:36 how
    2:21:37 does
    2:21:38 maybe
    2:21:40 anger
    2:21:40 maybe
    2:21:45 ideological
    2:21:46 optimism
    2:21:48 maybe
    2:21:48 the
    2:21:49 desire
    2:21:49 for
    2:21:49 revolution
    2:21:50 for
    2:21:50 better
    2:21:51 times
    2:21:52 amongst
    2:21:52 the
    2:21:52 small
    2:21:52 group
    2:21:53 of
    2:21:53 students
    2:21:53 how
    2:21:53 does
    2:21:54 that
    2:21:54 become
    2:21:54 a
    2:21:55 movement
    2:21:55 and
    2:21:55 how
    2:21:55 does
    2:21:55 that
    2:21:56 become
    2:21:56 a
    2:21:57 gigantic
    2:21:58 protest
    2:21:58 so
    2:21:59 protests
    2:21:59 were
    2:22:00 one
    2:22:00 of
    2:22:00 the
    2:22:00 things
    2:22:00 that
    2:22:03 some
    2:22:03 of
    2:22:04 the
    2:22:04 most
    2:22:05 impressive
    2:22:05 books
    2:22:05 I’ve
    2:22:05 been
    2:22:06 reading
    2:22:06 and
    2:22:07 about
    2:22:07 other
    2:22:07 places
    2:22:07 have
    2:22:08 been
    2:22:08 emphasizing
    2:22:10 is
    2:22:10 that
    2:22:12 protests
    2:22:12 are
    2:22:13 often
    2:22:13 preceded
    2:22:13 by
    2:22:14 other
    2:22:14 protests
    2:22:15 that
    2:22:16 may
    2:22:16 seem
    2:22:16 like
    2:22:16 dead
    2:22:17 ends
    2:22:17 but
    2:22:17 actually
    2:22:18 provide
    2:22:19 people
    2:22:19 with
    2:22:19 the
    2:22:19 kind
    2:22:20 of
    2:22:20 skills
    2:22:20 and
    2:22:21 scripts
    2:22:21 and
    2:22:22 repertoires
    2:22:22 to
    2:22:23 then
    2:22:24 carry
    2:22:24 out
    2:22:25 things
    2:22:25 on a
    2:22:25 larger
    2:22:26 scale
    2:22:26 after
    2:22:26 that
    2:22:27 so
    2:22:27 you
    2:22:27 often
    2:22:28 get
    2:22:30 captivated
    2:22:30 by a
    2:22:31 moment
    2:22:31 that
    2:22:31 seems to
    2:22:32 come out
    2:22:32 of
    2:22:32 nowhere
    2:22:32 but
    2:22:32 it
    2:22:33 often
    2:22:33 doesn’t
    2:22:34 it
    2:22:35 the ground
    2:22:35 has
    2:22:36 laid
    2:22:36 by
    2:22:37 it
    2:22:37 can
    2:22:37 be
    2:22:38 by
    2:22:38 an
    2:22:38 earlier
    2:22:39 generation
    2:22:39 that
    2:22:39 passes
    2:22:39 on
    2:22:39 the
    2:22:40 stories
    2:22:40 about
    2:22:40 it
    2:22:41 or
    2:22:41 it
    2:22:41 can
    2:22:41 be
    2:22:41 just
    2:22:42 a
    2:22:42 few
    2:22:42 years
    2:22:43 before
    2:22:43 and
    2:22:44 sometimes
    2:22:44 a
    2:22:45 new
    2:22:45 generation
    2:22:45 will
    2:22:46 say
    2:22:47 look
    2:22:47 at
    2:22:47 what
    2:22:47 they
    2:22:47 did
    2:22:48 that
    2:22:48 was
    2:22:48 exciting
    2:22:48 but
    2:22:48 we
    2:22:49 want
    2:22:49 to
    2:22:49 put
    2:22:49 our
    2:22:49 mark
    2:22:50 on
    2:22:50 things
    2:22:51 by
    2:22:51 this
    2:22:51 generation
    2:22:52 so
    2:22:53 in
    2:22:53 there
    2:22:53 were
    2:22:54 these
    2:22:54 1986
    2:22:55 protests
    2:22:55 that
    2:22:55 sort
    2:22:55 of
    2:22:56 fizzled
    2:22:56 out
    2:22:57 that
    2:22:57 helped
    2:22:57 lay
    2:22:57 the
    2:22:57 groundwork
    2:23:04 2014
    2:23:05 ones
    2:23:06 that
    2:23:06 laid
    2:23:06 the
    2:23:07 groundwork
    2:23:07 for
    2:23:07 2019
    2:23:08 some
    2:23:08 of
    2:23:08 the
    2:23:08 times
    2:23:08 it
    2:23:08 was
    2:23:09 the
    2:23:09 same
    2:23:10 activists
    2:23:10 out
    2:23:10 on
    2:23:10 the
    2:23:10 streets
    2:23:11 again
    2:23:11 but
    2:23:12 sometimes
    2:23:12 it
    2:23:12 was
    2:23:12 a
    2:23:12 younger
    2:23:13 generation
    2:23:13 said
    2:23:13 yeah
    2:23:14 okay
    2:23:14 but
    2:23:14 that
    2:23:15 failed
    2:23:15 so
    2:23:15 what
    2:23:15 can
    2:23:15 we
    2:23:16 do
    2:23:17 differently
    2:23:18 and
    2:23:18 we
    2:23:18 see
    2:23:19 this
    2:23:19 in
    2:23:20 cases
    2:23:20 in
    2:23:20 the
    2:23:20 US
    2:23:20 and
    2:23:21 we
    2:23:21 see
    2:23:21 it
    2:23:21 around
    2:23:21 the
    2:23:21 world
    2:23:22 of
    2:23:22 this
    2:23:22 kind
    2:23:23 of
    2:23:23 the
    2:23:25 percolating
    2:23:25 of
    2:23:25 things
    2:23:25 that
    2:23:26 happen
    2:23:26 sometimes
    2:23:26 in
    2:23:27 conversations
    2:23:27 that
    2:23:28 continue
    2:23:28 that
    2:23:28 happen
    2:23:30 and
    2:23:31 sometimes
    2:23:32 you know
    2:23:34 failures
    2:23:35 can seem
    2:23:35 like
    2:23:35 dead
    2:23:36 ends
    2:23:36 but
    2:23:36 over
    2:23:36 a
    2:23:36 long
    2:23:37 period
    2:23:37 of
    2:23:37 time
    2:23:38 we
    2:23:38 see
    2:23:38 them
    2:23:39 as
    2:23:42 succeeding
    2:23:42 and
    2:23:44 it
    2:23:44 can
    2:23:44 seem
    2:23:45 irrational
    2:23:47 to try
    2:23:47 to do
    2:23:47 something
    2:23:48 after
    2:23:49 the
    2:23:49 last
    2:23:49 three
    2:23:49 times
    2:23:50 people
    2:23:50 have
    2:23:50 tried
    2:23:50 to
    2:23:50 do
    2:23:50 it
    2:23:51 have
    2:23:51 failed
    2:23:52 but
    2:23:53 then
    2:23:53 occasionally
    2:23:54 history
    2:23:55 shows
    2:23:55 that
    2:23:55 the
    2:23:56 third
    2:23:57 time
    2:23:57 or
    2:23:57 the
    2:23:57 fifth
    2:23:57 time
    2:23:58 or
    2:23:58 the
    2:23:58 20th
    2:23:58 time
    2:24:00 actually
    2:24:00 does
    2:24:00 succeed
    2:24:01 there’s
    2:24:01 enough
    2:24:02 countervailing
    2:24:03 you know
    2:24:04 in
    2:24:04 Eastern
    2:24:04 Europe
    2:24:05 you would
    2:24:05 say
    2:24:05 like
    2:24:05 in
    2:24:06 1956
    2:24:06 there
    2:24:06 was
    2:24:07 a
    2:24:07 rising
    2:24:07 it
    2:24:07 was
    2:24:08 crushed
    2:24:08 in
    2:24:08 1968
    2:24:08 there
    2:24:08 were
    2:24:09 rising
    2:24:09 it
    2:24:09 was
    2:24:09 crushed
    2:24:11 Poland
    2:24:12 1981
    2:24:13 it’s
    2:24:13 martial
    2:24:13 law
    2:24:14 imposed
    2:24:14 in
    2:24:15 1989
    2:24:16 what
    2:24:16 were
    2:24:17 East
    2:24:17 German
    2:24:17 protesters
    2:24:18 thinking
    2:24:18 when
    2:24:18 they
    2:24:18 poured
    2:24:19 out
    2:24:19 onto
    2:24:19 the
    2:24:19 streets
    2:24:21 and
    2:24:21 then
    2:24:21 it
    2:24:21 happened
    2:24:22 and
    2:24:22 then
    2:24:23 but
    2:24:23 this
    2:24:23 time
    2:24:23 it
    2:24:24 wasn’t
    2:24:24 so
    2:24:25 I
    2:24:25 think
    2:24:26 there’s
    2:24:26 a way
    2:24:26 in
    2:24:27 which
    2:24:29 social
    2:24:30 movements
    2:24:30 are
    2:24:30 fundamentally
    2:24:31 unpredictable
    2:24:32 and
    2:24:32 there
    2:24:33 are
    2:24:33 just
    2:24:33 times
    2:24:33 when
    2:24:34 against
    2:24:34 all
    2:24:35 seeming
    2:24:35 odds
    2:24:35 something
    2:24:36 that
    2:24:36 seemed
    2:24:36 like
    2:24:36 it
    2:24:37 would
    2:24:38 be
    2:24:38 there
    2:24:38 forever
    2:24:39 just
    2:24:39 no
    2:24:39 longer
    2:24:40 is
    2:24:40 and
    2:24:40 and
    2:24:40 that
    2:24:41 case
    2:24:41 you
    2:24:41 make
    2:24:41 for
    2:24:42 when
    2:24:43 the
    2:24:43 odds
    2:24:44 seem
    2:24:45 impossible
    2:24:47 it’s
    2:24:47 still
    2:24:48 worthwhile
    2:24:49 you
    2:24:50 know
    2:24:50 it
    2:24:51 doesn’t
    2:24:52 mean
    2:24:52 that
    2:24:52 it
    2:24:52 will
    2:24:53 work
    2:24:54 it
    2:24:54 doesn’t
    2:24:54 mean
    2:24:54 it
    2:24:54 will
    2:24:55 work
    2:24:55 but
    2:24:55 I
    2:24:55 think
    2:24:56 history
    2:24:56 has
    2:24:56 enough
    2:24:57 examples
    2:24:58 of
    2:24:58 things
    2:24:58 that
    2:24:59 you
    2:24:59 thought
    2:25:00 I
    2:25:00 mean
    2:25:00 this
    2:25:00 is
    2:25:01 you
    2:25:01 know
    2:25:01 it
    2:25:03 explains
    2:25:03 why
    2:25:03 certain
    2:25:04 figures
    2:25:05 are
    2:25:05 so
    2:25:06 inspirational
    2:25:07 for
    2:25:07 generations
    2:25:08 of
    2:25:08 activists
    2:25:08 that
    2:25:09 you
    2:25:09 know
    2:25:09 people
    2:25:09 read
    2:25:10 there’s
    2:25:10 a
    2:25:10 reason
    2:25:11 why
    2:25:11 people
    2:25:11 talk
    2:25:11 about
    2:25:12 Vaclav
    2:25:12 Havel
    2:25:13 whereas
    2:25:14 if
    2:25:14 Vaclav
    2:25:14 Havel
    2:25:14 had
    2:25:15 died
    2:25:15 in
    2:25:16 1988
    2:25:18 people
    2:25:18 would
    2:25:18 have
    2:25:18 said
    2:25:19 oh
    2:25:20 maybe
    2:25:20 he
    2:25:20 was
    2:25:20 maybe
    2:25:20 he
    2:25:21 was
    2:25:21 a
    2:25:21 great
    2:25:21 writer
    2:25:22 but
    2:25:22 his
    2:25:23 political
    2:25:24 project
    2:25:24 he
    2:25:24 didn’t
    2:25:25 live
    2:25:25 to
    2:25:25 see
    2:25:27 come
    2:25:27 but
    2:25:27 then
    2:25:27 he
    2:25:27 lives
    2:25:28 to
    2:25:28 89
    2:25:28 and
    2:25:29 becomes
    2:25:29 you
    2:25:29 know
    2:25:30 against
    2:25:31 all
    2:25:31 expectations
    2:25:32 so
    2:25:33 Rebecca
    2:25:34 Solnit
    2:25:34 he’s
    2:25:34 got a
    2:25:34 new
    2:25:34 book
    2:25:35 No
    2:25:35 Straight
    2:25:36 Road
    2:25:36 Takes
    2:25:36 You
    2:25:36 There
    2:25:37 Essays
    2:25:37 for
    2:25:38 Uneven
    2:25:38 Terrain
    2:25:40 and
    2:25:40 she’s
    2:25:41 talking
    2:25:41 about
    2:25:42 taking
    2:25:42 a
    2:25:43 longer
    2:25:43 view
    2:25:44 of
    2:25:44 some
    2:25:44 struggles
    2:25:45 that
    2:25:45 seem
    2:25:47 that
    2:25:49 achieve
    2:25:50 things
    2:25:50 after
    2:25:51 the
    2:25:51 point
    2:25:51 when
    2:25:51 people
    2:25:52 might
    2:25:52 have
    2:25:52 imagined
    2:25:52 that
    2:25:53 they
    2:25:53 had
    2:25:53 run
    2:25:53 into
    2:25:53 dead
    2:25:54 ends
    2:25:55 and
    2:25:55 she’s
    2:25:56 talking
    2:25:56 about
    2:25:57 keeping
    2:25:57 your
    2:25:57 eye
    2:25:57 on
    2:25:57 the
    2:25:58 gains
    2:25:58 that
    2:25:58 happen
    2:25:59 even
    2:26:01 incrementally
    2:26:02 and the
    2:26:02 ways in
    2:26:03 which
    2:26:04 the need
    2:26:04 to take
    2:26:05 a longer
    2:26:05 term
    2:26:06 perspective
    2:26:06 on some
    2:26:07 of these
    2:26:07 things
    2:26:07 and I
    2:26:07 think
    2:26:09 it’s
    2:26:10 a strange
    2:26:11 thing
    2:26:11 because
    2:26:11 there’s
    2:26:11 also
    2:26:12 often
    2:26:12 an
    2:26:12 impatience
    2:26:13 in
    2:26:13 movements
    2:26:13 of
    2:26:14 people
    2:26:14 wanting
    2:26:15 immediate
    2:26:16 results
    2:26:16 but
    2:26:16 as a
    2:26:17 historian
    2:26:17 looking
    2:26:18 at
    2:26:20 situations
    2:26:20 I’ve
    2:26:21 mentioned
    2:26:21 Eastern
    2:26:22 Europe
    2:26:22 and
    2:26:22 Central
    2:26:23 Europe
    2:26:25 Taiwan
    2:26:26 was a
    2:26:27 right-wing
    2:26:28 dictatorship
    2:26:28 under
    2:26:29 sort of
    2:26:30 a version
    2:26:30 of martial
    2:26:30 law
    2:26:31 for decades
    2:26:32 and at
    2:26:33 each
    2:26:34 stage
    2:26:34 it would
    2:26:34 seem
    2:26:35 that
    2:26:35 people
    2:26:36 struggling
    2:26:36 to
    2:26:37 change
    2:26:37 it
    2:26:39 were
    2:26:40 on a
    2:26:40 quixotic
    2:26:41 impossible
    2:26:42 kind of
    2:26:43 mission
    2:26:43 or South
    2:26:44 Korea
    2:26:44 was in
    2:26:44 a similar
    2:26:45 situation
    2:26:46 and then
    2:26:47 in the
    2:26:47 late
    2:26:48 1980s
    2:26:48 you start
    2:26:48 to have
    2:26:49 those
    2:26:49 things
    2:26:49 unravel
    2:26:50 and it’s
    2:26:51 partly
    2:26:51 because
    2:26:52 of a
    2:26:52 kind
    2:26:52 of
    2:26:54 steady
    2:26:55 resistance
    2:26:55 it’s
    2:26:55 partly
    2:26:56 because
    2:26:56 something
    2:26:56 in the
    2:26:56 world
    2:26:57 changes
    2:26:58 but
    2:26:58 there’s
    2:26:58 often
    2:26:58 a
    2:26:59 combination
    2:27:00 of
    2:27:01 those
    2:27:01 things
    2:27:01 so
    2:27:02 I’m
    2:27:02 interested
    2:27:02 in
    2:27:03 that
    2:27:03 whole
    2:27:04 you know
    2:27:04 we
    2:27:05 know
    2:27:05 that
    2:27:05 what
    2:27:06 happened
    2:27:07 in
    2:27:07 Hong
    2:27:08 Kong
    2:27:09 in the
    2:27:09 short
    2:27:09 run
    2:27:10 didn’t
    2:27:11 work
    2:27:11 and I
    2:27:11 don’t
    2:27:12 see a
    2:27:12 way
    2:27:12 in which
    2:27:12 the
    2:27:12 national
    2:27:13 security
    2:27:13 law
    2:27:13 is
    2:27:14 reversed
    2:27:14 or anything
    2:27:14 like
    2:27:15 that
    2:27:16 but
    2:27:17 that
    2:27:18 doesn’t
    2:27:18 mean
    2:27:18 that
    2:27:20 it
    2:27:20 was
    2:27:22 a
    2:27:22 completely
    2:27:23 impossible
    2:27:24 effort
    2:27:24 even
    2:27:25 though
    2:27:25 we
    2:27:25 know
    2:27:26 the
    2:27:26 result
    2:27:26 in
    2:27:26 that
    2:27:27 case
    2:27:27 was
    2:27:29 to
    2:27:29 have
    2:27:29 this
    2:27:30 failure
    2:27:30 so
    2:27:31 the
    2:27:31 protests
    2:27:31 are
    2:27:32 generally
    2:27:33 worthwhile
    2:27:34 I mean
    2:27:34 they
    2:27:34 do
    2:27:35 give
    2:27:37 as
    2:27:37 I
    2:27:37 look
    2:27:37 at
    2:27:38 the
    2:27:38 description
    2:27:38 of
    2:27:38 the
    2:27:39 migratory
    2:27:39 routes
    2:27:40 ideas
    2:27:40 take
    2:27:42 they
    2:27:42 do
    2:27:43 seed
    2:27:43 ideas
    2:27:43 in
    2:27:43 the
    2:27:44 minds
    2:27:44 of
    2:27:45 people
    2:27:46 and
    2:27:46 then
    2:27:46 they
    2:27:46 live
    2:27:47 with
    2:27:47 those
    2:27:47 ideas
    2:27:47 and
    2:27:48 they
    2:27:48 share
    2:27:48 those
    2:27:49 ideas
    2:27:49 they
    2:27:49 deliberate
    2:27:50 through
    2:27:50 those
    2:27:50 ideas
    2:27:51 they
    2:27:52 might
    2:27:52 travel
    2:27:52 to
    2:27:53 different
    2:27:53 places
    2:27:53 of
    2:27:53 the
    2:27:53 world
    2:27:54 and
    2:27:54 then
    2:27:54 those
    2:27:54 ideas
    2:27:55 return
    2:27:56 and
    2:27:57 rise
    2:27:57 up
    2:27:57 again
    2:27:57 and
    2:27:57 again
    2:27:58 and
    2:27:58 again
    2:27:59 there’s
    2:28:00 two
    2:28:00 parts
    2:28:00 of
    2:28:00 the
    2:28:00 world
    2:28:00 that
    2:28:01 I
    2:28:01 think
    2:28:01 are
    2:28:02 fascinating
    2:28:04 and
    2:28:05 unpredictable
    2:28:06 so
    2:28:06 one
    2:28:06 is
    2:28:07 Iran
    2:28:08 which
    2:28:09 the
    2:28:09 trajectory
    2:28:10 that
    2:28:10 place
    2:28:11 takes
    2:28:13 might
    2:28:13 have
    2:28:13 a
    2:28:13 complete
    2:28:14 transformative
    2:28:14 effect
    2:28:15 on the
    2:28:15 Middle
    2:28:15 East
    2:28:16 and
    2:28:16 then
    2:28:16 the
    2:28:16 other
    2:28:17 one
    2:28:17 is
    2:28:17 China
    2:28:18 with
    2:28:18 the
    2:28:19 protests
    2:28:19 whether
    2:28:19 it’s
    2:28:20 in
    2:28:20 Taiwan
    2:28:20 or
    2:28:20 Hong
    2:28:21 Kong
    2:28:22 or
    2:28:22 maybe
    2:28:23 other
    2:28:24 influential
    2:28:25 parts
    2:28:25 of
    2:28:26 China
    2:28:27 those
    2:28:28 ideas
    2:28:28 percolating
    2:28:28 up
    2:28:29 and
    2:28:29 up
    2:28:30 again
    2:28:31 might
    2:28:31 have
    2:28:31 a
    2:28:31 completely
    2:28:32 transformative
    2:28:32 effect
    2:28:33 on the
    2:28:33 world
    2:28:34 so
    2:28:34 maybe
    2:28:34 this
    2:28:34 is
    2:28:35 another
    2:28:35 case
    2:28:35 where
    2:28:36 the
    2:28:37 Chinese
    2:28:38 Communist
    2:28:38 Party
    2:28:38 people
    2:28:39 leaders
    2:28:39 in the
    2:28:40 Chinese
    2:28:40 Communist
    2:28:40 Party
    2:28:41 they
    2:28:41 do
    2:28:41 know
    2:28:41 about
    2:28:41 history
    2:28:42 and
    2:28:42 they
    2:28:42 care
    2:28:42 about
    2:28:43 history
    2:28:43 and
    2:28:44 one
    2:28:44 history
    2:28:44 they
    2:28:45 know
    2:28:45 is
    2:28:45 the
    2:28:45 Chinese
    2:28:46 Communist
    2:28:46 Party
    2:28:46 was
    2:28:46 almost
    2:28:47 destroyed
    2:28:48 in
    2:28:49 1927
    2:28:50 I
    2:28:50 mean
    2:28:50 it
    2:28:50 was
    2:28:51 if
    2:28:51 you
    2:28:51 were
    2:28:52 taking
    2:28:53 odds
    2:28:53 on
    2:28:53 what
    2:28:53 are
    2:28:53 the
    2:28:54 chances
    2:28:54 that
    2:28:54 this
    2:28:55 ragtag
    2:28:55 sort
    2:28:55 of
    2:28:56 group
    2:28:56 that’s
    2:28:56 being
    2:28:57 pursued
    2:28:58 by
    2:28:59 Chiang Kai
    2:28:59 Shek
    2:28:59 to try
    2:28:59 to
    2:29:00 determine
    2:29:00 and
    2:29:00 yet
    2:29:02 over
    2:29:03 time
    2:29:03 they
    2:29:03 somehow
    2:29:04 manage
    2:29:04 to
    2:29:05 ride
    2:29:05 it
    2:29:05 out
    2:29:05 and
    2:29:06 eventually
    2:29:07 come
    2:29:07 to
    2:29:07 power
    2:29:08 there’s
    2:29:08 there’s
    2:29:08 an
    2:29:09 awareness
    2:29:09 of
    2:29:10 the
    2:29:11 ways
    2:29:11 in
    2:29:11 which
    2:29:12 the
    2:29:12 seemingly
    2:29:13 impossible
    2:29:13 can
    2:29:14 happen
    2:29:14 it
    2:29:14 doesn’t
    2:29:14 mean
    2:29:14 it
    2:29:15 will
    2:29:15 I
    2:29:15 mean
    2:29:15 this
    2:29:15 is
    2:29:16 why
    2:29:16 I
    2:29:16 think
    2:29:17 you
    2:29:17 know
    2:29:17 it’s
    2:29:18 and
    2:29:19 one
    2:29:19 of
    2:29:19 the
    2:29:19 really
    2:29:20 kind
    2:29:20 of
    2:29:21 tragic
    2:29:21 or
    2:29:21 heart
    2:29:22 rending
    2:29:22 things
    2:29:22 is
    2:29:22 you
    2:29:23 can
    2:29:23 have
    2:29:24 situations
    2:29:24 in
    2:29:24 which
    2:29:27 movements
    2:29:28 that
    2:29:29 seem
    2:29:29 to be
    2:29:29 pursuing
    2:29:30 an
    2:29:31 impossible
    2:29:32 end
    2:29:33 result
    2:29:33 they
    2:29:34 achieve
    2:29:34 that
    2:29:34 result
    2:29:35 and
    2:29:36 then
    2:29:36 after
    2:29:36 another
    2:29:37 period
    2:29:38 the
    2:29:38 country
    2:29:38 goes
    2:29:39 into
    2:29:39 another
    2:29:40 really
    2:29:41 difficult
    2:29:41 period
    2:29:42 or
    2:29:42 it
    2:29:43 seems
    2:29:43 that
    2:29:43 the
    2:29:44 successes
    2:29:45 are being
    2:29:45 rolled
    2:29:46 back
    2:29:46 and
    2:29:48 my
    2:29:48 new
    2:29:48 milk
    2:29:48 tea
    2:29:49 alliance
    2:29:49 book
    2:29:49 that
    2:29:50 I’ve
    2:29:50 just
    2:29:50 written
    2:29:51 dedicated
    2:29:51 to
    2:29:51 two
    2:29:52 people
    2:29:52 who’ve
    2:29:52 lived
    2:29:53 through
    2:29:53 a
    2:29:54 variety
    2:29:54 of
    2:29:54 these
    2:29:55 things
    2:29:55 one
    2:29:56 is
    2:29:56 a
    2:29:56 Burmese
    2:29:57 activist
    2:29:57 who
    2:29:57 was
    2:29:58 involved
    2:29:58 in
    2:29:58 a
    2:29:59 failed
    2:29:59 uprising
    2:29:59 in
    2:30:00 1988
    2:30:01 he
    2:30:02 then
    2:30:02 was
    2:30:02 an
    2:30:03 exile
    2:30:03 who
    2:30:03 didn’t
    2:30:04 know
    2:30:04 whether
    2:30:04 he
    2:30:04 could
    2:30:05 ever
    2:30:05 see
    2:30:06 his
    2:30:07 brothers
    2:30:07 who
    2:30:07 he
    2:30:08 loves
    2:30:08 back
    2:30:08 in
    2:30:09 Burma
    2:30:09 and
    2:30:10 then
    2:30:10 something
    2:30:10 magical
    2:30:11 kind
    2:30:11 of
    2:30:11 changed
    2:30:12 and
    2:30:12 in
    2:30:12 the
    2:30:13 2010s
    2:30:13 it
    2:30:17 turned
    2:30:17 out
    2:30:17 to
    2:30:17 be
    2:30:17 a
    2:30:17 false
    2:30:17 dawn
    2:30:18 he
    2:30:18 was
    2:30:18 able
    2:30:18 to
    2:30:18 go
    2:30:19 back
    2:30:20 and
    2:30:20 then
    2:30:21 and
    2:30:21 now
    2:30:21 he’s
    2:30:22 again
    2:30:22 when
    2:30:22 there’s
    2:30:22 been
    2:30:23 a
    2:30:23 coup
    2:30:23 and
    2:30:24 a
    2:30:25 crackdown
    2:30:25 he’s
    2:30:25 now
    2:30:25 again
    2:30:26 cut
    2:30:26 off
    2:30:27 and
    2:30:27 at
    2:30:27 one
    2:30:28 point
    2:30:28 I
    2:30:28 was
    2:30:29 asking
    2:30:29 him
    2:30:29 about
    2:30:30 his
    2:30:30 you
    2:30:30 know
    2:30:30 how
    2:30:30 he
    2:30:31 feels
    2:30:31 about
    2:30:31 this
    2:30:31 when
    2:30:31 he’s
    2:30:32 still
    2:30:32 trying
    2:30:32 to
    2:30:33 sort
    2:30:33 of
    2:30:34 raise
    2:30:34 awareness
    2:30:35 globally
    2:30:35 about
    2:30:35 what’s
    2:30:35 happening
    2:30:36 in
    2:30:36 me
    2:30:36 Marnie
    2:30:36 said
    2:30:38 I
    2:30:38 feel
    2:30:39 helpless
    2:30:39 but
    2:30:39 not
    2:30:40 hopeless
    2:30:40 I
    2:30:41 think
    2:30:41 how
    2:30:41 does
    2:30:42 somebody
    2:30:42 maintain
    2:30:42 hope
    2:30:42 in
    2:30:43 that
    2:30:43 and
    2:30:43 the
    2:30:44 other
    2:30:44 person
    2:30:44 I
    2:30:45 dedicated
    2:30:45 to
    2:30:47 as
    2:30:47 a
    2:30:47 Hungarian
    2:30:48 friend
    2:30:48 of
    2:30:48 mine
    2:30:49 who
    2:30:49 was
    2:30:49 an
    2:30:50 activist
    2:30:50 before
    2:30:51 89
    2:30:52 and
    2:30:52 saw
    2:30:53 the
    2:30:54 this
    2:30:57 communist
    2:30:57 party
    2:30:58 rule
    2:30:58 ending
    2:30:59 he
    2:30:59 was
    2:30:59 part
    2:31:00 of
    2:31:00 the
    2:31:00 process
    2:31:00 that
    2:31:01 came
    2:31:01 and
    2:31:01 he
    2:31:01 was
    2:31:02 friends
    2:31:02 with
    2:31:02 Havel
    2:31:02 and
    2:31:03 Havel
    2:31:04 Poland’s
    2:31:05 changing
    2:31:05 and all
    2:31:06 of this
    2:31:06 exhilarating
    2:31:07 moment
    2:31:08 but ends
    2:31:09 up being
    2:31:09 a critic
    2:31:10 of
    2:31:10 Orban
    2:31:11 and following
    2:31:12 a tightening
    2:31:13 of
    2:31:13 control
    2:31:13 of
    2:31:14 rolling
    2:31:15 back
    2:31:15 of many
    2:31:15 of the
    2:31:16 things
    2:31:17 that
    2:31:17 were
    2:31:18 victorious
    2:31:18 then
    2:31:18 but
    2:31:19 this
    2:31:19 kind
    2:31:20 of
    2:31:21 the
    2:31:22 no
    2:31:22 straight
    2:31:23 road
    2:31:23 you know
    2:31:23 that
    2:31:24 actually
    2:31:25 there’s
    2:31:26 something
    2:31:26 about
    2:31:28 it’s
    2:31:28 it can
    2:31:28 be
    2:31:30 disquieting
    2:31:30 when
    2:31:30 these
    2:31:32 unexpected
    2:31:32 things
    2:31:33 are
    2:31:33 blows
    2:31:34 to
    2:31:34 what
    2:31:34 you
    2:31:34 where
    2:31:35 you
    2:31:35 thought
    2:31:35 his
    2:31:36 direction
    2:31:36 history
    2:31:36 was
    2:31:37 going
    2:31:37 but
    2:31:38 history
    2:31:38 shows
    2:31:38 you
    2:31:38 that
    2:31:39 history
    2:31:39 doesn’t
    2:31:39 have
    2:31:40 a
    2:31:40 direction
    2:31:41 that’s
    2:31:41 not
    2:31:42 there
    2:31:42 isn’t
    2:31:43 a
    2:31:43 straight
    2:31:43 road
    2:31:44 yeah
    2:31:44 and
    2:31:44 there’s
    2:31:45 you know
    2:31:46 the
    2:31:47 idealism
    2:31:47 of
    2:31:48 youth
    2:31:48 can
    2:31:48 lead
    2:31:49 to
    2:31:49 things
    2:31:49 like
    2:31:50 the
    2:31:50 Russian
    2:31:51 revolution
    2:31:51 and
    2:31:51 then
    2:31:52 you
    2:31:52 get
    2:31:52 Stalin
    2:31:53 with
    2:31:53 Hall
    2:31:53 more
    2:31:53 and
    2:31:53 the
    2:31:54 purges
    2:31:54 and
    2:31:55 all
    2:31:55 of that
    2:31:56 entailed
    2:31:57 so
    2:31:57 a
    2:31:58 successful
    2:31:59 protest
    2:31:59 and a
    2:32:00 successful
    2:32:01 revolution
    2:32:02 might
    2:32:04 have
    2:32:04 unintended
    2:32:05 consequences
    2:32:06 that
    2:32:07 far
    2:32:07 overshadow
    2:32:08 whatever
    2:32:08 ideals
    2:32:09 and dreams
    2:32:09 you had
    2:32:10 fighting for
    2:32:10 the working
    2:32:11 class
    2:32:11 whatever it
    2:32:12 was
    2:32:12 in that
    2:32:13 particular
    2:32:13 case
    2:32:14 that can
    2:32:14 cause
    2:32:15 immeasurable
    2:32:15 suffering
    2:32:17 so
    2:32:18 there is
    2:32:18 no
    2:32:19 direction
    2:32:19 to
    2:32:19 history
    2:32:20 there’s
    2:32:20 just
    2:32:20 some
    2:32:21 lessons
    2:32:21 we pick
    2:32:21 up
    2:32:22 along
    2:32:22 the
    2:32:22 way
    2:32:22 we
    2:32:22 try
    2:32:23 to
    2:32:24 hopefully
    2:32:25 try
    2:32:26 to
    2:32:27 help
    2:32:27 humanity
    2:32:28 flourish
    2:32:29 and we
    2:32:29 barely know
    2:32:30 what we’re
    2:32:30 doing
    2:32:30 and now
    2:32:31 we have
    2:32:31 nuclear
    2:32:31 weapons
    2:32:32 and some
    2:32:33 of it
    2:32:33 is also
    2:32:34 though
    2:32:34 people
    2:32:35 sometimes
    2:32:36 the people
    2:32:36 who I
    2:32:37 find
    2:32:37 really
    2:32:38 admirable
    2:32:40 it’s not
    2:32:40 about
    2:32:41 trying to
    2:32:41 create
    2:32:42 totalistic
    2:32:43 change
    2:32:43 but they
    2:32:44 focus on
    2:32:44 trying to
    2:32:45 do what
    2:32:45 they can
    2:32:47 for the
    2:32:48 things they
    2:32:48 believe in
    2:32:48 within
    2:32:49 constrained
    2:32:51 circumstances
    2:32:52 and in
    2:32:53 Thailand
    2:32:53 they’ve
    2:32:53 sort of
    2:32:54 hit a
    2:32:55 roadblock
    2:32:55 now
    2:32:56 again
    2:32:56 over
    2:32:56 kind of
    2:32:57 trying to
    2:32:57 bring about
    2:32:57 electoral
    2:32:58 change
    2:32:59 a party
    2:33:00 that did
    2:33:00 really
    2:33:00 well
    2:33:01 was then
    2:33:01 disqualified
    2:33:02 and
    2:33:03 some of
    2:33:03 the activists
    2:33:04 I know
    2:33:04 are focusing
    2:33:05 on
    2:33:07 local
    2:33:07 efforts
    2:33:08 to improve
    2:33:08 a neighborhood
    2:33:09 to keep
    2:33:09 a neighborhood
    2:33:10 from
    2:33:10 suffering
    2:33:11 from a
    2:33:11 kind of
    2:33:12 unthinking
    2:33:12 gentrification
    2:33:13 they’re thinking
    2:33:14 small
    2:33:15 they’re thinking
    2:33:15 sometimes
    2:33:16 about just
    2:33:17 what can
    2:33:17 we do
    2:33:18 to improve
    2:33:19 the life
    2:33:20 of people
    2:33:21 within
    2:33:22 how can
    2:33:22 we build
    2:33:23 how can
    2:33:24 we contribute
    2:33:25 to the
    2:33:26 kinds of
    2:33:27 social groups
    2:33:27 that
    2:33:29 might
    2:33:30 make some
    2:33:30 kind of
    2:33:31 incremental
    2:33:32 improvement
    2:33:33 to being
    2:33:33 the kind
    2:33:33 of
    2:33:34 world
    2:33:34 that we
    2:33:35 want to
    2:33:35 live in
    2:33:36 people do
    2:33:37 that on
    2:33:37 in all
    2:33:38 kinds of
    2:33:39 all kinds
    2:33:39 of ways
    2:33:41 what kind
    2:33:42 of parallels
    2:33:42 can we draw
    2:33:43 between Taiwan
    2:33:43 and Hong
    2:33:44 Kong
    2:33:45 what do
    2:33:45 you think
    2:33:45 the people
    2:33:46 of Taiwan
    2:33:47 are thinking
    2:33:49 looking at
    2:33:49 Hong Kong
    2:33:51 well I
    2:33:51 think
    2:33:52 I think
    2:33:52 the way
    2:33:53 that
    2:33:54 things
    2:33:54 developed
    2:33:55 in Hong Kong
    2:33:55 have
    2:33:56 undermined
    2:33:57 the kind
    2:33:58 of trust
    2:33:59 in any
    2:33:59 kind of
    2:34:00 story
    2:34:00 coming out
    2:34:00 of Beijing
    2:34:01 that
    2:34:03 that there’s
    2:34:04 a place
    2:34:05 within
    2:34:06 sort of
    2:34:06 Xi Jinping’s
    2:34:07 version at least
    2:34:07 of the People’s
    2:34:08 Republic of China
    2:34:09 for a place
    2:34:11 where people
    2:34:11 live very
    2:34:12 different kinds
    2:34:12 of lives
    2:34:13 and I think
    2:34:14 a lot of
    2:34:14 people in
    2:34:15 Taiwan
    2:34:15 think of them
    2:34:16 feel they’re
    2:34:17 living a very
    2:34:17 different kind
    2:34:17 of life
    2:34:19 than on the
    2:34:19 mainland
    2:34:19 so in
    2:34:20 that way
    2:34:21 I think
    2:34:22 Hong Kong
    2:34:22 was an
    2:34:23 important
    2:34:26 example
    2:34:26 that way
    2:34:27 and there
    2:34:28 were connections
    2:34:28 between
    2:34:29 there was a
    2:34:30 Taiwan protest
    2:34:31 in 2014
    2:34:33 before the
    2:34:33 big protests
    2:34:34 in Hong Kong
    2:34:35 by people
    2:34:36 who were
    2:34:37 young people
    2:34:37 who felt
    2:34:38 the government
    2:34:39 then was
    2:34:40 moving toward
    2:34:41 too much
    2:34:42 toward working
    2:34:43 together with
    2:34:43 Beijing
    2:34:44 so there
    2:34:44 is
    2:34:45 they’ve
    2:34:45 been
    2:34:45 interconnected
    2:34:46 stories
    2:34:47 and I
    2:34:47 think we
    2:34:48 sometimes
    2:34:49 miss how
    2:34:51 people within
    2:34:51 a region
    2:34:52 are looking
    2:34:53 at what
    2:34:54 other people
    2:34:54 in the region
    2:34:54 are doing
    2:34:55 and are
    2:34:55 taking
    2:34:57 clues from
    2:34:57 it
    2:34:58 about
    2:34:58 sort of
    2:34:59 how to
    2:35:01 how to
    2:35:01 agitate
    2:35:01 for the
    2:35:02 things they
    2:35:02 care about
    2:35:03 what the
    2:35:04 risks are
    2:35:05 what the
    2:35:05 dangers
    2:35:05 are
    2:35:07 autocrats
    2:35:07 within
    2:35:07 different
    2:35:08 parts of
    2:35:08 a region
    2:35:08 are looking
    2:35:09 at each
    2:35:09 other too
    2:35:10 as well
    2:35:10 as globally
    2:35:12 in part
    2:35:12 because
    2:35:12 there’s
    2:35:12 a great
    2:35:13 dependence
    2:35:13 in the
    2:35:13 United
    2:35:14 States
    2:35:15 on TSMC
    2:35:16 and in
    2:35:16 that way
    2:35:17 on Taiwan
    2:35:17 for different
    2:35:18 supply chains
    2:35:19 for electronics
    2:35:20 for semiconductors
    2:35:21 for a lot
    2:35:22 of our
    2:35:22 economy
    2:35:24 there’s been
    2:35:25 a lot of
    2:35:25 nervousness
    2:35:26 about Taiwan
    2:35:28 what are
    2:35:28 the chances
    2:35:31 that there
    2:35:31 is some
    2:35:32 brewing
    2:35:32 military
    2:35:33 conflict
    2:35:33 over this
    2:35:33 question
    2:35:34 of Taiwan
    2:35:35 in the
    2:35:36 coming decades
    2:35:36 and how
    2:35:37 can we
    2:35:38 avoid it
    2:35:40 it’s a
    2:35:40 it’s one
    2:35:40 of these
    2:35:41 really
    2:35:41 worrisome
    2:35:43 issues
    2:35:43 that there
    2:35:44 isn’t a
    2:35:44 there isn’t
    2:35:45 an easy
    2:35:46 I think
    2:35:46 any
    2:35:47 I think
    2:35:47 experts
    2:35:47 who
    2:35:49 tell you
    2:35:50 they know
    2:35:50 what
    2:35:51 X Y
    2:35:52 and Z
    2:35:52 about this
    2:35:52 is
    2:35:53 are
    2:35:54 deluding
    2:35:55 themselves
    2:35:55 probably
    2:35:56 there’s
    2:35:56 so many
    2:35:57 variables
    2:35:57 maybe you
    2:35:58 could just
    2:35:59 elaborate
    2:35:59 the possible
    2:36:01 possible
    2:36:01 clues
    2:36:02 we have
    2:36:03 so
    2:36:04 with
    2:36:04 talking
    2:36:04 to people
    2:36:06 in Taiwan
    2:36:06 and from
    2:36:07 Taiwan
    2:36:08 there are
    2:36:08 a couple
    2:36:08 things
    2:36:09 that are
    2:36:11 clear
    2:36:11 one is
    2:36:12 that
    2:36:13 daily
    2:36:13 life
    2:36:14 in
    2:36:14 Taiwan
    2:36:14 is
    2:36:15 not
    2:36:16 people
    2:36:16 waking
    2:36:16 up
    2:36:16 each
    2:36:17 morning
    2:36:18 living
    2:36:18 their
    2:36:18 life
    2:36:19 based
    2:36:19 on
    2:36:19 the
    2:36:19 fact
    2:36:20 that
    2:36:20 there’s
    2:36:20 in
    2:36:21 such
    2:36:21 a
    2:36:21 perilous
    2:36:23 kind
    2:36:23 of
    2:36:23 predicament
    2:36:23 that
    2:36:25 it’s
    2:36:25 life
    2:36:26 goes
    2:36:26 on
    2:36:26 and
    2:36:26 a lot
    2:36:26 of
    2:36:27 people
    2:36:30 feel
    2:36:30 very
    2:36:31 fortunate
    2:36:32 to be
    2:36:32 in
    2:36:32 Taiwan
    2:36:33 you
    2:36:33 know
    2:36:33 there
    2:36:33 are
    2:36:33 many
    2:36:34 reasons
    2:36:34 why
    2:36:34 it
    2:36:35 seems
    2:36:35 like
    2:36:36 a
    2:36:36 great
    2:36:37 place
    2:36:38 to
    2:36:38 live
    2:36:39 in
    2:36:39 many
    2:36:39 ways
    2:36:40 so
    2:36:40 even
    2:36:40 though
    2:36:41 this
    2:36:41 is
    2:36:41 hanging
    2:36:41 but
    2:36:42 at the
    2:36:42 same
    2:36:43 time
    2:36:44 there
    2:36:44 is
    2:36:44 an
    2:36:45 awareness
    2:36:46 of
    2:36:47 things
    2:36:47 that
    2:36:48 increase
    2:36:49 precariousness
    2:36:51 and
    2:36:51 there
    2:36:51 was
    2:36:52 a lot
    2:36:52 of
    2:36:53 concern
    2:36:54 with
    2:36:54 the
    2:36:55 invasion
    2:36:55 of
    2:36:56 Ukraine
    2:36:57 and
    2:36:58 watching
    2:36:58 how
    2:37:01 the
    2:37:01 response
    2:37:01 to
    2:37:02 that
    2:37:02 was
    2:37:22 and
    2:37:23 a
    2:37:24 western
    2:37:25 NATO
    2:37:26 including
    2:37:26 the
    2:37:26 United
    2:37:27 States
    2:37:27 response
    2:37:28 and
    2:37:29 then
    2:37:29 there’s
    2:37:29 a
    2:37:30 concern
    2:37:32 about
    2:37:35 the
    2:37:35 Trump
    2:37:35 presidency
    2:37:36 because
    2:37:36 of
    2:37:37 Ukraine
    2:37:38 at
    2:37:38 the
    2:37:38 same
    2:37:38 time
    2:37:39 there
    2:37:39 are
    2:37:39 mixed
    2:37:40 signals
    2:37:40 so
    2:37:40 people
    2:37:41 are
    2:37:41 there
    2:37:42 I’m
    2:37:42 sure
    2:37:42 there
    2:37:42 are
    2:37:43 people
    2:37:43 there
    2:37:43 who
    2:37:44 are
    2:37:44 both
    2:37:45 saying
    2:37:47 Trump
    2:37:47 is
    2:37:47 going
    2:37:48 to
    2:37:48 be
    2:37:48 tough
    2:37:48 toward
    2:37:48 the
    2:37:49 Chinese
    2:37:49 Communist
    2:37:49 Party
    2:37:49 and
    2:37:50 others
    2:37:50 are
    2:37:50 going
    2:37:50 to
    2:37:50 say
    2:37:50 but
    2:37:52 if
    2:37:52 he’s
    2:37:52 not
    2:37:53 as
    2:37:54 supportive
    2:37:54 of
    2:37:55 Ukraine
    2:37:55 what
    2:37:55 does
    2:37:55 that
    2:37:56 say
    2:37:57 for
    2:37:58 the
    2:37:59 defense
    2:37:59 of
    2:38:00 so
    2:38:00 they’re
    2:38:00 not
    2:38:01 the
    2:38:01 same
    2:38:02 situations
    2:38:02 but
    2:38:04 all
    2:38:04 people
    2:38:04 have
    2:38:05 in a
    2:38:05 sense
    2:38:06 sometimes
    2:38:06 with
    2:38:07 unknowable
    2:38:07 situations
    2:38:08 is to
    2:38:08 look at
    2:38:09 things
    2:38:10 that have
    2:38:10 any
    2:38:10 degree
    2:38:10 of
    2:38:11 parallel
    2:38:12 connections
    2:38:13 in other
    2:38:13 places
    2:38:14 do you
    2:38:14 think
    2:38:14 Xi Jinping
    2:38:15 knows
    2:38:16 what
    2:38:16 he’s
    2:38:17 going
    2:38:17 to
    2:38:17 do
    2:38:17 in
    2:38:17 the
    2:38:18 next
    2:38:18 five
    2:38:19 ten
    2:38:19 years
    2:38:20 with
    2:38:21 Taiwan
    2:38:21 or
    2:38:22 is it
    2:38:22 really
    2:38:24 like
    2:38:24 there’s
    2:38:24 a
    2:38:26 there’s
    2:38:26 a
    2:38:26 loose
    2:38:27 historical
    2:38:28 notion
    2:38:28 that
    2:38:29 Taiwan
    2:38:29 should
    2:38:29 be
    2:38:30 part
    2:38:30 of
    2:38:30 China
    2:38:32 with
    2:38:33 Xi Jinping
    2:38:33 and the
    2:38:33 Communist
    2:38:34 Party
    2:38:34 believe
    2:38:34 that
    2:38:35 that
    2:38:35 loose
    2:38:36 idea
    2:38:36 was
    2:38:37 accepted
    2:38:37 Chiang
    2:38:37 Kai-shek
    2:38:38 and
    2:38:38 Mao
    2:38:38 both
    2:38:39 thought
    2:38:40 that
    2:38:40 these
    2:38:40 two
    2:38:40 places
    2:38:41 were
    2:38:42 part
    2:38:42 of
    2:38:43 somehow
    2:38:43 destined
    2:38:43 to be
    2:38:44 the
    2:38:44 same
    2:38:44 was
    2:38:44 just
    2:38:45 under
    2:38:45 that
    2:38:46 period
    2:38:46 Chiang
    2:38:46 Kai-shek
    2:38:47 thought
    2:38:47 how
    2:38:48 long
    2:38:48 until
    2:38:48 I
    2:38:49 take
    2:38:49 over
    2:38:50 the
    2:38:50 mainland
    2:38:50 and
    2:38:50 it
    2:38:51 all
    2:38:51 becomes
    2:38:51 the
    2:38:51 Republic
    2:38:52 of
    2:38:52 China
    2:38:53 this
    2:38:53 is
    2:38:54 not
    2:38:54 now
    2:38:54 something
    2:38:54 that
    2:38:55 any
    2:38:55 leader
    2:38:56 in
    2:38:56 Taiwan
    2:38:56 is
    2:38:57 believing
    2:38:58 there
    2:38:58 is a
    2:38:58 degree
    2:38:58 to
    2:38:59 which
    2:39:01 that
    2:39:02 remains
    2:39:02 a
    2:39:02 kind
    2:39:03 of
    2:39:04 sense
    2:39:04 within
    2:39:05 the
    2:39:05 Chinese
    2:39:05 Communist
    2:39:05 Party
    2:39:06 leadership
    2:39:06 as
    2:39:07 an
    2:39:08 eventuality
    2:39:09 I
    2:39:09 don’t
    2:39:09 think
    2:39:10 there’s
    2:39:10 a set
    2:39:13 plan
    2:39:14 in
    2:39:14 part
    2:39:15 because
    2:39:15 I
    2:39:15 think
    2:39:15 it
    2:39:15 is
    2:39:16 also
    2:39:16 dependent
    2:39:17 on
    2:39:18 what
    2:39:18 the
    2:39:19 costs
    2:39:20 in
    2:39:22 various
    2:39:22 realms
    2:39:23 would be
    2:39:23 of doing
    2:39:23 that
    2:39:24 I
    2:39:25 think
    2:39:25 it
    2:39:25 still
    2:39:26 does
    2:39:31 one
    2:39:32 scenario
    2:39:33 would
    2:39:33 be
    2:39:34 possibly
    2:39:35 a
    2:39:35 sense
    2:39:35 of
    2:39:36 becoming
    2:39:36 strong
    2:39:37 enough
    2:39:37 to
    2:39:37 not
    2:39:37 have
    2:39:37 to
    2:39:37 worry
    2:39:38 about
    2:39:38 consequences
    2:39:39 I
    2:39:39 think
    2:39:41 another
    2:39:41 I
    2:39:41 still
    2:39:41 think
    2:39:42 to
    2:39:42 some
    2:39:42 extent
    2:39:42 more
    2:39:43 would
    2:39:43 be
    2:39:43 a
    2:39:44 sense
    2:39:44 of
    2:39:44 weakness
    2:39:44 or
    2:39:45 precarity
    2:39:46 of
    2:39:47 maintaining
    2:39:48 power
    2:39:48 domestically
    2:39:49 and
    2:39:49 needing
    2:39:49 to do
    2:39:50 something
    2:39:51 to
    2:39:52 distract
    2:39:53 and
    2:39:54 another
    2:39:54 complexity
    2:39:55 about
    2:39:55 this
    2:39:55 is
    2:39:56 it’s
    2:39:56 not
    2:39:56 always
    2:39:57 so
    2:39:57 clear
    2:39:58 the
    2:39:59 line
    2:39:59 between
    2:40:01 no
    2:40:02 conflict
    2:40:02 and
    2:40:02 conflict
    2:40:03 so
    2:40:04 there’s
    2:40:04 a lot
    2:40:04 of
    2:40:04 gray
    2:40:05 zone
    2:40:05 tactics
    2:40:06 of
    2:40:06 non
    2:40:06 violent
    2:40:07 pressure
    2:40:07 that
    2:40:08 China
    2:40:08 could
    2:40:08 exude
    2:40:09 so
    2:40:09 it
    2:40:09 could
    2:40:10 do
    2:40:11 non
    2:40:11 military
    2:40:12 violence
    2:40:14 it
    2:40:14 could
    2:40:14 then
    2:40:15 escalate
    2:40:15 that
    2:40:16 to
    2:40:16 non
    2:40:17 violent
    2:40:18 military
    2:40:19 intimidation
    2:40:20 and
    2:40:21 all of
    2:40:21 this
    2:40:21 has
    2:40:22 consequences
    2:40:22 for
    2:40:22 the
    2:40:22 United
    2:40:23 States
    2:40:23 because
    2:40:23 there’s
    2:40:23 a
    2:40:24 messaging
    2:40:24 thing
    2:40:24 going
    2:40:25 on
    2:40:25 here
    2:40:26 and
    2:40:26 then
    2:40:26 of
    2:40:26 course
    2:40:26 that
    2:40:27 could
    2:40:27 then
    2:40:27 go
    2:40:28 to
    2:40:28 a
    2:40:29 do
    2:40:29 as
    2:40:29 you’re
    2:40:30 told
    2:40:30 actions
    2:40:30 that
    2:40:31 come
    2:40:31 at
    2:40:31 a
    2:40:31 high
    2:40:31 risk
    2:40:31 of
    2:40:31 a
    2:40:32 hot
    2:40:32 military
    2:40:32 conflict
    2:40:33 so
    2:40:33 basically
    2:40:34 just
    2:40:35 don’t
    2:40:35 do
    2:40:36 military
    2:40:37 violence
    2:40:37 but
    2:40:38 just
    2:40:39 full
    2:40:39 on
    2:40:40 pressure
    2:40:41 ordering
    2:40:41 Taiwan
    2:40:41 to
    2:40:41 do
    2:40:42 things
    2:40:43 and
    2:40:43 there
    2:40:45 it’s
    2:40:45 like
    2:40:46 in
    2:40:46 order
    2:40:46 the
    2:40:46 only
    2:40:47 way
    2:40:47 to
    2:40:47 respond
    2:40:47 is
    2:40:47 with
    2:40:48 violence
    2:40:48 you’re
    2:40:49 completely
    2:40:49 trapped
    2:40:50 you’re
    2:40:50 saying
    2:40:50 no
    2:40:51 you have
    2:40:51 to
    2:40:52 say
    2:40:52 no
    2:40:52 with
    2:40:53 a
    2:40:54 military
    2:40:54 force
    2:40:54 behind
    2:40:54 it
    2:40:55 and
    2:40:55 then
    2:40:56 what
    2:40:56 do
    2:40:56 you
    2:40:56 do
    2:40:57 and
    2:40:57 every
    2:40:58 step
    2:40:58 in
    2:40:59 this
    2:40:59 it’s
    2:40:59 such
    2:41:00 an
    2:41:01 unstable
    2:41:02 nonlinear
    2:41:03 dynamical
    2:41:04 system
    2:41:04 where
    2:41:04 anything
    2:41:05 could
    2:41:05 just
    2:41:06 unintended
    2:41:06 consequences
    2:41:07 can
    2:41:07 happen
    2:41:08 and
    2:41:08 it
    2:41:08 could
    2:41:08 just
    2:41:09 escalate
    2:41:09 in a
    2:41:09 matter
    2:41:09 of
    2:41:09 days
    2:41:10 if
    2:41:10 not
    2:41:11 hours
    2:41:12 and
    2:41:12 so
    2:41:13 like
    2:41:13 this
    2:41:13 is
    2:41:13 where
    2:41:16 this
    2:41:16 is
    2:41:17 where
    2:41:17 I
    2:41:17 think
    2:41:18 it’s
    2:41:18 really
    2:41:18 important
    2:41:19 to
    2:41:19 find
    2:41:20 mechanisms
    2:41:20 and
    2:41:21 tactics
    2:41:22 and
    2:41:22 strategies
    2:41:23 for
    2:41:24 de-escalation
    2:41:26 which is
    2:41:27 why
    2:41:27 this trade
    2:41:28 war
    2:41:28 that’s
    2:41:28 happening
    2:41:29 one
    2:41:29 of
    2:41:29 the
    2:41:30 nice
    2:41:30 things
    2:41:30 of
    2:41:31 being
    2:41:31 so
    2:41:32 connected
    2:41:32 by
    2:41:33 trade
    2:41:33 is
    2:41:34 it
    2:41:34 creates
    2:41:34 a
    2:41:35 disincentive
    2:41:36 for
    2:41:37 any
    2:41:37 of
    2:41:37 this
    2:41:37 kind
    2:41:38 of
    2:41:38 posturing
    2:41:39 because
    2:41:40 I do
    2:41:40 agree
    2:41:40 with
    2:41:40 you
    2:41:41 I
    2:41:41 think
    2:41:41 it
    2:41:41 will
    2:41:42 start
    2:41:43 as
    2:41:43 these
    2:41:44 things
    2:41:44 often
    2:41:45 do
    2:41:46 as
    2:41:46 a
    2:41:47 kind
    2:41:47 of
    2:41:49 military
    2:41:50 sort
    2:41:50 of
    2:41:50 early
    2:41:51 steps
    2:41:52 posturing
    2:41:53 in order
    2:41:54 to maintain
    2:41:54 power
    2:41:55 internally
    2:41:57 so
    2:41:58 that’s
    2:41:59 China
    2:41:59 will
    2:41:59 just
    2:42:00 create
    2:42:01 military
    2:42:01 conflict
    2:42:01 conflict
    2:42:02 of
    2:42:02 different
    2:42:02 kinds
    2:42:03 in
    2:42:03 order
    2:42:03 to
    2:42:04 distract
    2:42:05 but
    2:42:05 then
    2:42:05 how
    2:42:05 does
    2:42:06 that
    2:42:06 escalate
    2:42:07 as if
    2:42:07 all that
    2:42:08 wasn’t
    2:42:08 complicated
    2:42:09 enough
    2:42:09 Taiwan
    2:42:09 isn’t
    2:42:09 just
    2:42:10 one
    2:42:10 place
    2:42:10 or
    2:42:11 one
    2:42:11 island
    2:42:11 there
    2:42:12 are
    2:42:12 also
    2:42:12 there
    2:42:12 are
    2:42:13 islands
    2:42:13 that
    2:42:14 are
    2:42:14 closer
    2:42:15 to
    2:42:16 mainland
    2:42:16 Jinmen
    2:42:16 and
    2:42:17 their
    2:42:17 degrees
    2:42:17 of
    2:42:18 integration
    2:42:18 and
    2:42:19 anyway
    2:42:19 so
    2:42:19 it’s
    2:42:20 it’s
    2:42:20 a
    2:42:21 but
    2:42:21 your
    2:42:22 comment
    2:42:22 about
    2:42:25 integration
    2:42:25 of
    2:42:25 trade
    2:42:27 and
    2:42:27 sort
    2:42:27 of
    2:42:29 having
    2:42:30 being
    2:42:31 a check
    2:42:31 on
    2:42:32 kind
    2:42:32 of
    2:42:32 there’s
    2:42:32 a
    2:42:34 there’s
    2:42:34 a
    2:42:34 Chinese
    2:42:35 writer
    2:42:36 who
    2:42:38 fascinating
    2:42:38 guy
    2:42:39 Han Han
    2:42:39 who was
    2:42:40 a race
    2:42:40 car
    2:42:41 driver
    2:42:41 and
    2:42:41 a
    2:42:42 filmmaker
    2:42:42 and
    2:42:43 a
    2:42:43 bad
    2:42:44 boy
    2:42:44 novelist
    2:42:45 anyway
    2:42:45 in his
    2:42:46 heyday
    2:42:47 he was
    2:42:47 an
    2:42:47 interesting
    2:42:47 kind
    2:42:48 of
    2:42:48 blogger
    2:42:48 who
    2:42:48 was
    2:42:49 testing
    2:42:49 the
    2:42:49 edges
    2:42:50 of
    2:42:50 things
    2:42:50 and
    2:42:50 he
    2:42:50 had
    2:42:51 this
    2:42:52 blog
    2:42:52 post
    2:42:53 where
    2:42:53 he
    2:42:53 was
    2:42:53 talking
    2:42:54 about
    2:42:54 this
    2:42:55 was
    2:42:56 in
    2:42:56 the
    2:42:56 early
    2:42:57 2000s
    2:42:58 he
    2:42:58 was
    2:42:58 talking
    2:42:59 about
    2:42:59 how
    2:43:01 China
    2:43:01 was
    2:43:01 building
    2:43:01 the
    2:43:02 massive
    2:43:02 three
    2:43:03 gorges
    2:43:03 dam
    2:43:04 project
    2:43:04 this
    2:43:05 mass
    2:43:05 and
    2:43:06 he
    2:43:06 said
    2:43:06 some
    2:43:07 people
    2:43:07 are
    2:43:08 saying
    2:43:10 building
    2:43:10 these
    2:43:11 dams
    2:43:11 it
    2:43:11 could
    2:43:11 be
    2:43:11 so
    2:43:12 easy
    2:43:12 for
    2:43:12 the
    2:43:12 Americans
    2:43:13 to
    2:43:13 just
    2:43:16 bomb
    2:43:17 them
    2:43:17 and
    2:43:17 destroy
    2:43:18 our
    2:43:18 country
    2:43:20 because
    2:43:20 there
    2:43:20 would
    2:43:20 be
    2:43:20 a
    2:43:20 massive
    2:43:21 flood
    2:43:22 and
    2:43:22 he
    2:43:22 said
    2:43:22 but
    2:43:23 that’s
    2:43:23 really
    2:43:24 silly
    2:43:24 that’s
    2:43:24 a really
    2:43:25 silly
    2:43:25 argument
    2:43:26 because
    2:43:27 Americans
    2:43:28 know
    2:43:28 that
    2:43:28 down
    2:43:28 river
    2:43:29 from
    2:43:29 there
    2:43:29 what
    2:43:29 would
    2:43:29 be
    2:43:29 flooded
    2:43:30 out
    2:43:30 was
    2:43:30 the
    2:43:30 place
    2:43:30 where
    2:43:31 their
    2:43:31 iPhones
    2:43:31 are
    2:43:31 built
    2:43:32 and
    2:43:32 and
    2:43:33 they
    2:43:33 want
    2:43:33 their
    2:43:34 iPhones
    2:43:34 so
    2:43:36 this
    2:43:36 kind
    2:43:36 of
    2:43:37 notion
    2:43:37 he’s
    2:43:38 making
    2:43:38 through
    2:43:39 a
    2:43:39 humorous
    2:43:39 point
    2:43:40 the
    2:43:40 way
    2:43:40 in
    2:43:40 which
    2:43:42 interconnectedness
    2:43:43 can
    2:43:45 be a
    2:43:45 check
    2:43:46 and
    2:43:47 interconnectedness
    2:43:47 can be
    2:43:48 in all
    2:43:48 kinds
    2:43:48 of
    2:43:49 ways
    2:43:49 the
    2:43:49 flows
    2:43:50 people
    2:43:50 between
    2:43:51 places
    2:43:52 and
    2:43:53 having
    2:43:54 people
    2:43:55 from
    2:43:55 one
    2:43:56 place
    2:43:56 living
    2:43:56 in
    2:43:56 another
    2:43:57 traveling
    2:43:57 to
    2:43:57 another
    2:43:58 studying
    2:43:58 in
    2:43:58 another
    2:43:59 that
    2:43:59 can
    2:44:00 actually
    2:44:00 be
    2:44:01 something
    2:44:01 that
    2:44:02 helps
    2:44:03 to
    2:44:04 stabilize
    2:44:04 the
    2:44:05 world
    2:44:05 I
    2:44:05 think
    2:44:05 that’s
    2:44:05 an
    2:44:05 important
    2:44:06 thing
    2:44:06 to
    2:44:06 keep
    2:44:06 in
    2:44:07 mind
    2:44:08 since
    2:44:08 you
    2:44:08 mentioned
    2:44:09 the
    2:44:09 long
    2:44:10 march
    2:44:11 and
    2:44:11 the
    2:44:12 unlikely
    2:44:14 coming
    2:44:14 to
    2:44:14 power
    2:44:14 with
    2:44:14 the
    2:44:14 communist
    2:44:15 party
    2:44:16 let’s
    2:44:16 go
    2:44:16 back
    2:44:17 we began
    2:44:18 comparing
    2:44:18 Xi Jinping
    2:44:18 and
    2:44:19 Mao
    2:44:19 let’s
    2:44:19 go
    2:44:20 back
    2:44:20 to
    2:44:20 Mao
    2:44:21 how
    2:44:21 did
    2:44:21 Mao
    2:44:22 come
    2:44:22 to
    2:44:22 power
    2:44:23 the
    2:44:24 road
    2:44:24 to
    2:44:25 Mao
    2:44:26 coming
    2:44:26 to
    2:44:26 power
    2:44:26 we
    2:44:27 need
    2:44:27 to
    2:44:27 first
    2:44:28 say
    2:44:28 that
    2:44:29 China
    2:44:29 was
    2:44:30 under
    2:44:30 rule
    2:44:30 by
    2:44:31 emperors
    2:44:32 until
    2:44:33 1911
    2:44:34 overthrown
    2:44:35 by
    2:44:35 an
    2:44:35 upheaval
    2:44:36 that
    2:44:37 was
    2:44:37 partly
    2:44:38 by
    2:44:38 people
    2:44:39 who
    2:44:40 wanted
    2:44:41 to
    2:44:41 change
    2:44:41 China
    2:44:42 into
    2:44:42 a
    2:44:42 republic
    2:44:43 but
    2:44:43 also
    2:44:43 some
    2:44:43 people
    2:44:44 who
    2:44:44 wanted
    2:44:44 to
    2:44:44 get
    2:44:44 rid
    2:44:45 of
    2:44:45 the
    2:44:46 last
    2:44:46 dynasty
    2:44:47 was
    2:44:47 a
    2:44:48 group
    2:44:48 of
    2:44:48 Manchu
    2:44:49 ruling
    2:44:49 families
    2:44:50 so they
    2:44:50 saw
    2:44:50 them
    2:44:50 as
    2:44:51 ethnic
    2:44:51 outsiders
    2:44:52 so it
    2:44:53 was a
    2:44:53 strange
    2:44:54 combination
    2:44:54 of
    2:44:55 ethnic
    2:44:56 nationalists
    2:44:56 who
    2:44:57 wanted
    2:44:57 China
    2:44:57 back
    2:44:58 under
    2:44:58 the
    2:44:58 control
    2:44:58 of
    2:44:58 Han
    2:44:59 Chinese
    2:45:00 other
    2:45:00 people
    2:45:00 who
    2:45:01 thought
    2:45:01 the
    2:45:01 time
    2:45:02 for
    2:45:02 rule
    2:45:02 by
    2:45:03 emperors
    2:45:03 was over
    2:45:04 and wanted
    2:45:04 to
    2:45:04 establish
    2:45:05 a
    2:45:05 republic
    2:45:07 and
    2:45:07 Sun Yat-sen
    2:45:09 became
    2:45:10 a first
    2:45:11 president
    2:45:12 provisional
    2:45:12 president
    2:45:13 of this
    2:45:13 newly
    2:45:13 formed
    2:45:14 republic
    2:45:14 of
    2:45:14 China
    2:45:15 but
    2:45:16 then
    2:45:16 he
    2:45:16 got
    2:45:17 nudged
    2:45:17 out of
    2:45:17 power
    2:45:18 by a
    2:45:18 military
    2:45:19 strong
    2:45:19 man
    2:45:20 and
    2:45:20 then
    2:45:20 there
    2:45:21 was
    2:45:21 a
    2:45:21 period
    2:45:22 where
    2:45:24 the
    2:45:24 country
    2:45:24 was really
    2:45:25 divided
    2:45:25 republic
    2:45:25 of
    2:45:26 China
    2:45:26 didn’t
    2:45:26 have
    2:45:26 a
    2:45:27 strong
    2:45:28 government
    2:45:28 but
    2:45:28 there
    2:45:29 were
    2:45:30 then
    2:45:30 two
    2:45:31 groups
    2:45:32 one
    2:45:33 rallied
    2:45:33 around
    2:45:34 Sun Yat-sen
    2:45:35 had founded
    2:45:35 something
    2:45:36 that became
    2:45:36 known as
    2:45:36 the
    2:45:37 nationalist
    2:45:37 party
    2:45:38 and then
    2:45:39 there was
    2:45:39 a small
    2:45:40 group
    2:45:40 of people
    2:45:41 who formed
    2:45:42 a communist
    2:45:42 party
    2:45:43 Mao was
    2:45:43 one of
    2:45:44 them
    2:45:44 these
    2:45:44 were
    2:45:46 intellectuals
    2:45:46 who were
    2:45:47 part of
    2:45:48 the May 4th
    2:45:48 movement
    2:45:49 of 1919
    2:45:49 they were
    2:45:50 inspired by
    2:45:51 Marxist
    2:45:51 ideas but
    2:45:51 they were
    2:45:52 also just
    2:45:52 inspired by
    2:45:53 the Russian
    2:45:53 revolution
    2:45:55 Russia
    2:45:55 was
    2:45:56 nearby
    2:45:56 it
    2:45:56 seemed
    2:45:57 good
    2:45:57 to
    2:45:57 think
    2:45:58 with
    2:45:58 it
    2:45:58 had
    2:45:58 a
    2:45:59 largely
    2:46:00 rural
    2:46:00 population
    2:46:01 and
    2:46:01 somehow
    2:46:03 it
    2:46:03 seemed
    2:46:04 to be
    2:46:05 getting
    2:46:05 strong
    2:46:06 in the
    2:46:06 world
    2:46:06 and
    2:46:06 there
    2:46:07 was
    2:46:07 this
    2:46:07 interest
    2:46:08 in
    2:46:08 how
    2:46:09 China
    2:46:09 could
    2:46:09 do
    2:46:09 that
    2:46:10 and
    2:46:10 the
    2:46:11 newly
    2:46:11 formed
    2:46:12 Soviet
    2:46:12 Union
    2:46:13 did
    2:46:14 something
    2:46:14 very
    2:46:15 important
    2:46:16 there
    2:46:16 were
    2:46:16 a
    2:46:16 group
    2:46:17 of
    2:46:17 foreign
    2:46:17 powers
    2:46:18 including
    2:46:19 Tsarist
    2:46:19 Russia
    2:46:20 that
    2:46:20 had
    2:46:21 gained
    2:46:22 big
    2:46:23 concessions
    2:46:23 out of
    2:46:23 China
    2:46:24 when
    2:46:25 in
    2:46:25 1900
    2:46:26 the
    2:46:26 Boxer
    2:46:26 Uprising
    2:46:27 had
    2:46:27 taken
    2:46:28 place
    2:46:28 and
    2:46:28 then
    2:46:30 been
    2:46:30 crushed
    2:46:31 by a
    2:46:31 consortium
    2:46:31 of
    2:46:31 foreign
    2:46:32 powers
    2:46:32 who
    2:46:32 had
    2:46:32 gotten
    2:46:34 privileges
    2:46:34 and
    2:46:35 indemnities
    2:46:35 out of
    2:46:35 that
    2:46:36 and
    2:46:36 the
    2:46:37 newly
    2:46:37 formed
    2:46:37 Soviet
    2:46:38 Union
    2:46:39 renounced
    2:46:39 those
    2:46:39 said
    2:46:40 you know
    2:46:40 that was
    2:46:41 the old
    2:46:41 order
    2:46:42 that was
    2:46:43 imperialism
    2:46:44 and
    2:46:44 so
    2:46:47 Marx’s
    2:46:47 ideas
    2:46:48 were
    2:46:50 attractive
    2:46:51 to some
    2:46:51 Chinese
    2:46:52 thinkers
    2:46:52 but
    2:46:53 Lenin
    2:46:53 was
    2:46:53 very
    2:46:54 attractive
    2:46:54 because
    2:46:54 of
    2:46:55 his
    2:46:55 combination
    2:46:55 of
    2:46:56 anti-imperialism
    2:46:58 and
    2:46:58 his
    2:46:58 notion
    2:46:58 of
    2:46:58 a
    2:46:59 vanguard
    2:46:59 party
    2:47:00 leading
    2:47:01 a
    2:47:01 country
    2:47:01 forward
    2:47:04 so
    2:47:05 there
    2:47:05 was
    2:47:05 a
    2:47:05 small
    2:47:06 communist
    2:47:06 party
    2:47:06 a
    2:47:06 bigger
    2:47:07 nationalist
    2:47:07 party
    2:47:07 they
    2:47:08 were
    2:47:08 involved
    2:47:08 in
    2:47:08 these
    2:47:09 protests
    2:47:09 against
    2:47:10 warlords
    2:47:10 and
    2:47:10 against
    2:47:11 imperialists
    2:47:12 and
    2:47:13 while
    2:47:13 Sun Yat-sen
    2:47:14 was
    2:47:14 alive
    2:47:15 Sun Yat-sen
    2:47:17 got the
    2:47:17 two
    2:47:17 parties
    2:47:17 to work
    2:47:18 together
    2:47:19 because
    2:47:19 Sun Yat-sen
    2:47:20 wasn’t a
    2:47:20 Marxist
    2:47:20 he didn’t
    2:47:21 believe in
    2:47:21 class
    2:47:21 struggle
    2:47:22 but
    2:47:22 he
    2:47:23 admired
    2:47:23 Lenin
    2:47:24 and
    2:47:24 Leninism
    2:47:25 and
    2:47:26 so
    2:47:26 he
    2:47:26 said
    2:47:26 that
    2:47:27 actually
    2:47:28 the
    2:47:28 communist
    2:47:29 party
    2:47:29 and the
    2:47:29 nationalist
    2:47:29 party
    2:47:30 may have
    2:47:30 had
    2:47:30 different
    2:47:31 views
    2:47:32 of
    2:47:32 the
    2:47:32 path
    2:47:33 forward
    2:47:33 for
    2:47:33 China
    2:47:34 but
    2:47:34 they
    2:47:34 agreed
    2:47:35 on
    2:47:35 who
    2:47:35 the
    2:47:35 enemies
    2:47:36 were
    2:47:36 and
    2:47:36 the
    2:47:37 enemies
    2:47:37 were
    2:47:37 the
    2:47:38 warlords
    2:47:38 who
    2:47:38 were
    2:47:39 keeping
    2:47:39 China
    2:47:40 weak
    2:47:40 and
    2:47:40 too
    2:47:40 willing
    2:47:40 to
    2:47:41 compromise
    2:47:41 with
    2:47:42 Japan
    2:47:43 and
    2:47:44 foreign
    2:47:44 imperialism
    2:47:45 so
    2:47:45 China
    2:47:46 needed
    2:47:46 to get
    2:47:46 rid
    2:47:46 of
    2:47:46 the
    2:47:47 warlords
    2:47:47 and
    2:47:48 become
    2:47:48 a
    2:47:49 stronger
    2:47:50 country
    2:47:50 and
    2:47:50 then
    2:47:50 they
    2:47:50 could
    2:47:50 sort
    2:47:51 it
    2:47:51 out
    2:47:52 of
    2:47:53 what
    2:47:53 road
    2:47:53 to
    2:47:53 take
    2:47:54 Sun Yat-sen
    2:47:55 dies
    2:47:55 in
    2:47:56 1925
    2:47:57 and
    2:47:57 his
    2:47:58 successor
    2:47:59 Chiang Kai-shek
    2:48:01 is
    2:48:01 initially
    2:48:02 keeps
    2:48:02 the
    2:48:03 alliance
    2:48:03 going
    2:48:03 with
    2:48:04 the
    2:48:04 communist
    2:48:04 party
    2:48:04 but
    2:48:05 in
    2:48:05 1927
    2:48:06 he
    2:48:06 turns
    2:48:07 against
    2:48:07 the
    2:48:08 communists
    2:48:08 and
    2:48:08 tries
    2:48:08 to
    2:48:08 carry
    2:48:09 out
    2:48:09 a
    2:48:09 purge
    2:48:09 against
    2:48:10 communist
    2:48:10 party
    2:48:11 members
    2:48:11 he’s
    2:48:11 the
    2:48:12 head
    2:48:12 of
    2:48:12 the
    2:48:13 nationalists
    2:48:13 he’s
    2:48:13 the
    2:48:13 head
    2:48:13 of
    2:48:13 the
    2:48:14 nationalists
    2:48:14 and
    2:48:15 he
    2:48:15 has
    2:48:15 some
    2:48:16 very
    2:48:16 different
    2:48:17 he’s
    2:48:17 he’s
    2:48:17 a
    2:48:17 kind
    2:48:18 of
    2:48:18 culturally
    2:48:19 more
    2:48:19 conservative
    2:48:20 figure
    2:48:22 but
    2:48:22 what’s
    2:48:23 important
    2:48:23 in part
    2:48:23 about
    2:48:24 this
    2:48:24 is
    2:48:25 there
    2:48:25 are
    2:48:25 some
    2:48:26 members
    2:48:26 of
    2:48:26 the
    2:48:26 Chinese
    2:48:26 Communist
    2:48:26 Party
    2:48:27 who
    2:48:28 accept
    2:48:28 the
    2:48:28 basic
    2:48:29 ideas
    2:48:29 of
    2:48:30 Marxism
    2:48:30 of
    2:48:31 revolution
    2:48:31 comes
    2:48:32 from
    2:48:32 the
    2:48:32 cities
    2:48:34 but
    2:48:34 Mao
    2:48:35 has
    2:48:36 this
    2:48:36 idea
    2:48:36 that
    2:48:37 actually
    2:48:38 he’s
    2:48:38 he’s
    2:48:39 partly
    2:48:40 he
    2:48:40 loves
    2:48:40 this
    2:48:41 idea
    2:48:41 of
    2:48:41 peasant
    2:48:42 rebellions
    2:48:42 in
    2:48:42 China’s
    2:48:43 past
    2:48:43 is
    2:48:43 driving
    2:48:44 history
    2:48:44 forward
    2:48:44 and
    2:48:45 he
    2:48:45 starts
    2:48:46 writing
    2:48:46 about
    2:48:47 how
    2:48:48 well
    2:48:48 maybe
    2:48:48 in
    2:48:49 China’s
    2:48:49 case
    2:48:49 actually
    2:48:49 the
    2:48:50 peasantry
    2:48:51 farmers
    2:48:51 can
    2:48:51 be
    2:48:52 a
    2:48:53 radical
    2:48:53 force
    2:48:54 and
    2:48:55 so
    2:48:55 the
    2:48:55 Communist
    2:48:56 Party
    2:48:56 is
    2:48:56 on
    2:48:56 the
    2:48:56 run
    2:48:57 it’s
    2:48:57 being
    2:48:58 pushed
    2:48:58 around
    2:48:59 but
    2:48:59 the
    2:48:59 Nationalists
    2:48:59 are
    2:49:00 trying
    2:49:00 to
    2:49:00 exterminate
    2:49:01 them
    2:49:02 but
    2:49:02 eventually
    2:49:04 and
    2:49:05 the
    2:49:05 Nationalists
    2:49:05 and the
    2:49:06 Communists
    2:49:06 ally
    2:49:07 again
    2:49:08 after
    2:49:08 Japan
    2:49:09 invades
    2:49:09 China
    2:49:09 in the
    2:49:10 1930s
    2:49:10 they
    2:49:10 form
    2:49:11 what’s
    2:49:11 called
    2:49:11 Second
    2:49:12 United
    2:49:12 Front
    2:49:13 but
    2:49:13 during
    2:49:14 this
    2:49:14 period
    2:49:14 Mao
    2:49:15 is
    2:49:15 emerging
    2:49:16 as
    2:49:17 taking
    2:49:18 leadership
    2:49:19 in the
    2:49:19 Chinese
    2:49:19 Communist
    2:49:20 Party
    2:49:21 and
    2:49:21 his
    2:49:21 idea
    2:49:22 of a
    2:49:22 different
    2:49:22 kind
    2:49:23 of
    2:49:23 vision
    2:49:23 of
    2:49:24 Communist
    2:49:24 Revolution
    2:49:25 that
    2:49:26 has
    2:49:27 the
    2:49:27 revolutionary
    2:49:28 vanguard
    2:49:29 somehow
    2:49:29 being
    2:49:31 the
    2:49:31 peasantry
    2:49:33 in
    2:49:34 after World War
    2:49:35 II
    2:49:35 after the
    2:49:35 two
    2:49:36 parties
    2:49:36 have
    2:49:38 brokered
    2:49:38 a truce
    2:49:39 and sort
    2:49:39 of worked
    2:49:39 together
    2:49:40 against
    2:49:40 Japan
    2:49:41 there’s a
    2:49:42 civil war
    2:49:42 between the
    2:49:43 Nationalists
    2:49:43 and the
    2:49:43 Communists
    2:49:45 and against
    2:49:46 all odds
    2:49:46 the Communist
    2:49:47 Party
    2:49:47 wins
    2:49:48 the
    2:49:48 Communist
    2:49:48 Party
    2:49:48 gets
    2:49:49 support
    2:49:49 from
    2:49:49 the
    2:49:50 Soviet
    2:49:50 Union
    2:49:51 the
    2:49:51 Nationalists
    2:49:52 get
    2:49:52 support
    2:49:52 from
    2:49:52 the
    2:49:53 United
    2:49:53 States
    2:49:56 even
    2:49:56 though
    2:49:56 neither
    2:49:57 of them
    2:49:57 are quite
    2:49:57 doing
    2:49:58 things
    2:49:58 the way
    2:49:59 that
    2:49:59 their
    2:50:00 backer
    2:50:00 would
    2:50:00 like
    2:50:00 them
    2:50:01 to
    2:50:01 but
    2:50:02 there
    2:50:02 also
    2:50:02 is
    2:50:02 a
    2:50:03 way
    2:50:03 in
    2:50:03 which
    2:50:04 the
    2:50:04 and
    2:50:04 this
    2:50:04 is
    2:50:04 something
    2:50:05 I
    2:50:05 think
    2:50:05 the
    2:50:05 Communist
    2:50:06 Party
    2:50:06 leaders
    2:50:07 remember
    2:50:08 there’s
    2:50:08 a
    2:50:08 feeling
    2:50:09 that
    2:50:09 the
    2:50:09 Nationalist
    2:50:10 Party
    2:50:10 doesn’t
    2:50:10 really
    2:50:11 believe
    2:50:11 its
    2:50:12 own
    2:50:13 rhetoric
    2:50:13 that
    2:50:13 in fact
    2:50:14 all it
    2:50:14 cares about
    2:50:14 as
    2:50:15 having
    2:50:15 power
    2:50:16 and
    2:50:16 that
    2:50:16 it’s
    2:50:17 internally
    2:50:17 corrupt
    2:50:18 Chiang
    2:50:18 Kai-shek
    2:50:19 himself
    2:50:19 isn’t
    2:50:20 viewed
    2:50:20 as
    2:50:22 personally
    2:50:22 corrupt
    2:50:22 but
    2:50:24 family
    2:50:25 members
    2:50:25 and
    2:50:25 there’s
    2:50:27 an idea
    2:50:27 that
    2:50:27 there’s
    2:50:27 just a
    2:50:28 small
    2:50:28 band
    2:50:28 of
    2:50:29 people
    2:50:29 that
    2:50:29 are
    2:50:30 benefiting
    2:50:31 and
    2:50:32 there’s
    2:50:32 a
    2:50:32 kind
    2:50:33 of
    2:50:33 disgust
    2:50:33 with
    2:50:33 the
    2:50:34 leader
    2:50:34 with
    2:50:35 the
    2:50:35 Nationalists
    2:50:37 end up
    2:50:37 in
    2:50:38 retreat
    2:50:39 in
    2:50:39 Taiwan
    2:50:40 that’s
    2:50:40 why
    2:50:40 Taiwan
    2:50:41 then
    2:50:41 becomes
    2:50:42 the
    2:50:42 Republic
    2:50:42 of
    2:50:43 China
    2:50:44 there’s
    2:50:45 an
    2:50:45 uprising
    2:50:45 there
    2:50:46 that
    2:50:47 Chiang Kai-shek
    2:50:47 people
    2:50:48 the
    2:50:49 Nationalists
    2:50:49 repress
    2:50:51 and there
    2:50:51 starts
    2:50:51 being
    2:50:52 from the
    2:50:52 late
    2:50:53 1940s
    2:50:53 on
    2:50:53 this
    2:50:53 long
    2:50:54 period
    2:50:54 of
    2:50:54 martial
    2:50:54 law
    2:50:55 on
    2:50:56 Taiwan
    2:50:56 and
    2:50:56 there
    2:50:56 becomes
    2:50:57 then
    2:50:57 this
    2:50:58 period
    2:50:58 where
    2:50:59 the
    2:50:59 mainland
    2:50:59 is
    2:50:59 under
    2:51:00 the
    2:51:00 control
    2:51:00 of
    2:51:01 a
    2:51:02 Leninist
    2:51:03 party
    2:51:04 believes
    2:51:04 in
    2:51:04 one
    2:51:05 party
    2:51:05 rule
    2:51:07 and
    2:51:07 believes
    2:51:07 that
    2:51:07 it
    2:51:07 was
    2:51:08 a
    2:51:08 very
    2:51:09 bad
    2:51:09 period
    2:51:09 in
    2:51:09 Chinese
    2:51:10 history
    2:51:11 when
    2:51:13 China
    2:51:13 was
    2:51:14 unable
    2:51:14 to
    2:51:14 stand
    2:51:14 up
    2:51:14 to
    2:51:15 imperialists
    2:51:17 Taiwan
    2:51:17 is
    2:51:17 controlled
    2:51:18 by
    2:51:19 a
    2:51:20 Leninist
    2:51:20 party
    2:51:21 that
    2:51:21 believes
    2:51:21 in
    2:51:22 one
    2:51:22 party
    2:51:22 rule
    2:51:24 limits
    2:51:24 on
    2:51:24 participation
    2:51:25 believes
    2:51:26 that
    2:51:26 it was
    2:51:26 a
    2:51:27 bad
    2:51:27 time
    2:51:27 when
    2:51:28 China
    2:51:28 was
    2:51:28 being
    2:51:29 bullied
    2:51:29 by
    2:51:29 imperialists
    2:51:30 what
    2:51:31 distinguishes
    2:51:31 Chiang Kai
    2:51:32 Shek has
    2:51:33 a personality
    2:51:33 cult
    2:51:34 Mao
    2:51:34 has a
    2:51:34 personality
    2:51:35 cult
    2:51:36 they have
    2:51:36 a lot
    2:51:36 in
    2:51:37 common
    2:51:37 but
    2:51:37 one
    2:51:38 clear
    2:51:38 thing
    2:51:39 that
    2:51:39 makes
    2:51:39 them
    2:51:40 different
    2:51:40 is
    2:51:40 Chiang Kai
    2:51:41 Shek
    2:51:41 says
    2:51:41 that
    2:51:41 what’s
    2:51:42 wrong
    2:51:42 with
    2:51:42 the
    2:51:43 communist
    2:51:43 party
    2:51:43 is
    2:51:43 they’ve
    2:51:44 abandoned
    2:51:45 Chinese
    2:51:46 traditional
    2:51:46 values
    2:51:47 of
    2:51:48 Confucianism
    2:51:49 and
    2:51:50 Mao
    2:51:50 says
    2:51:50 that
    2:51:51 on
    2:51:51 the
    2:51:52 nationalists
    2:51:53 what’s
    2:51:53 really
    2:51:54 bad
    2:51:54 as
    2:51:54 they
    2:51:54 are
    2:51:55 still
    2:51:55 wedded
    2:51:56 to
    2:51:56 these
    2:51:56 traditional
    2:51:57 Chinese
    2:51:58 values
    2:51:58 of
    2:51:59 Confucianism
    2:51:59 so
    2:52:00 cycling
    2:52:00 back
    2:52:01 to where
    2:52:01 we began
    2:52:02 with
    2:52:03 Mao
    2:52:03 and
    2:52:03 Xi
    2:52:04 you could
    2:52:04 actually
    2:52:05 say
    2:52:05 Xi
    2:52:06 Jinping
    2:52:06 in some
    2:52:07 ways
    2:52:07 is
    2:52:08 like
    2:52:09 living
    2:52:09 out
    2:52:09 the
    2:52:10 dream
    2:52:10 that
    2:52:10 Chiang Kai
    2:52:11 had
    2:52:11 had
    2:52:11 of
    2:52:12 one
    2:52:12 party
    2:52:13 rule
    2:52:14 and
    2:52:15 also
    2:52:15 kind
    2:52:15 of
    2:52:16 celebrating
    2:52:17 Confucianism
    2:52:18 yeah
    2:52:18 there’s
    2:52:18 elements
    2:52:20 you’ve
    2:52:20 spoken
    2:52:20 about
    2:52:20 the
    2:52:21 elements
    2:52:21 of
    2:52:21 Chi
    2:52:21 Kai
    2:52:22 Shek
    2:52:22 and
    2:52:23 Mao
    2:52:23 that
    2:52:24 Xi
    2:52:24 Jinping
    2:52:24 kind
    2:52:25 of
    2:52:25 combines
    2:52:26 you’ve
    2:52:26 also
    2:52:26 mentioned
    2:52:27 an
    2:52:27 interesting
    2:52:28 you know
    2:52:29 if we
    2:52:29 had
    2:52:30 you know
    2:52:30 a hundred
    2:52:30 hours
    2:52:31 to talk
    2:52:31 about
    2:52:31 there’s
    2:52:31 another
    2:52:32 interesting
    2:52:32 side
    2:52:32 effect
    2:52:34 similarity
    2:52:35 that
    2:52:35 you
    2:52:35 talk
    2:52:35 about
    2:52:36 where
    2:52:37 Xi
    2:52:37 Jinping’s
    2:52:38 wife
    2:52:40 is
    2:52:40 out
    2:52:40 there
    2:52:40 a
    2:52:41 known
    2:52:41 entity
    2:52:42 a
    2:52:42 part
    2:52:42 of
    2:52:42 his
    2:52:43 public
    2:52:43 image
    2:52:44 and
    2:52:44 same
    2:52:44 was
    2:52:44 the
    2:52:45 case
    2:52:45 with
    2:52:46 Chi
    2:52:46 Kai
    2:52:47 Shek
    2:52:47 yes
    2:52:47 and
    2:52:48 both
    2:52:48 of
    2:52:49 them
    2:52:49 right
    2:52:49 they
    2:52:49 had
    2:52:49 high
    2:52:50 profile
    2:52:51 wives
    2:52:51 who
    2:52:51 were
    2:52:53 sort
    2:52:53 of
    2:52:54 celebrity
    2:52:54 figures
    2:52:55 and
    2:52:55 and
    2:52:56 made
    2:52:58 a
    2:52:58 good
    2:52:58 impression
    2:52:59 globally
    2:52:59 and
    2:52:59 were
    2:52:59 more
    2:53:00 like
    2:53:00 kind
    2:53:00 of
    2:53:00 first
    2:53:02 first
    2:53:02 ladies
    2:53:04 but
    2:53:04 both
    2:53:05 shang kai
    2:53:05 shek
    2:53:06 and
    2:53:06 xi jin
    2:53:06 ping
    2:53:08 were
    2:53:08 oversaw
    2:53:09 a period
    2:53:09 of
    2:53:10 emphasizing
    2:53:10 more
    2:53:11 traditional
    2:53:12 patriarchal
    2:53:12 values
    2:53:13 in
    2:53:13 china
    2:53:14 and
    2:53:14 one
    2:53:14 of
    2:53:14 the
    2:53:14 things
    2:53:15 i
    2:53:15 didn’t
    2:53:15 mention
    2:53:15 before
    2:53:16 xi
    2:53:16 jin
    2:53:16 ping
    2:53:16 has
    2:53:16 been
    2:53:17 very
    2:53:19 in
    2:53:19 this
    2:53:20 idea
    2:53:20 of
    2:53:20 trying
    2:53:21 to
    2:53:21 do
    2:53:21 away
    2:53:22 with
    2:53:22 difference
    2:53:22 within
    2:53:24 prc
    2:53:24 he’s
    2:53:25 been
    2:53:26 pushing
    2:53:26 against
    2:53:26 feminists
    2:53:27 of
    2:53:27 any
    2:53:27 kinds
    2:53:27 of
    2:53:28 feminist
    2:53:28 movements
    2:53:28 so
    2:53:29 going
    2:53:29 back
    2:53:29 to
    2:53:30 confucius
    2:53:30 yeah
    2:53:31 yeah
    2:53:32 in
    2:53:32 some
    2:53:32 way
    2:53:33 i mean
    2:53:33 there
    2:53:33 are
    2:53:34 people
    2:53:34 who
    2:53:34 will
    2:53:34 argue
    2:53:35 for
    2:53:35 a
    2:53:35 less
    2:53:36 patriarchal
    2:53:37 confucius
    2:53:37 but it
    2:53:38 fits
    2:53:38 with
    2:53:38 that
    2:53:39 mode
    2:53:39 so
    2:53:40 now
    2:53:40 that
    2:53:40 gets
    2:53:40 us
    2:53:41 close
    2:53:41 to
    2:53:41 mao
    2:53:42 consolidating
    2:53:43 power
    2:53:44 then
    2:53:44 then
    2:53:44 the
    2:53:45 story
    2:53:45 after
    2:53:46 1949
    2:53:46 with
    2:53:47 mao
    2:53:47 is
    2:53:48 there
    2:53:49 were
    2:53:51 divisions
    2:53:51 within
    2:53:55 the
    2:53:55 communist
    2:53:55 party
    2:53:56 over
    2:53:57 sort
    2:53:57 of
    2:53:58 mao
    2:53:58 was
    2:53:59 impatient
    2:53:59 he
    2:53:59 wanted
    2:54:00 to
    2:54:00 transform
    2:54:01 the
    2:54:01 country
    2:54:01 quickly
    2:54:02 he
    2:54:02 had
    2:54:02 a
    2:54:03 utopian
    2:54:03 streak
    2:54:04 he
    2:54:04 thought
    2:54:05 just as
    2:54:05 the
    2:54:06 peasantry
    2:54:06 could
    2:54:06 sort
    2:54:06 of
    2:54:07 you
    2:54:07 didn’t
    2:54:07 have
    2:54:07 to
    2:54:08 stick
    2:54:08 to
    2:54:08 the
    2:54:08 traditional
    2:54:09 pattern
    2:54:10 of
    2:54:10 moving
    2:54:11 slowly
    2:54:11 to
    2:54:12 socialism
    2:54:12 and
    2:54:12 then
    2:54:12 to
    2:54:13 communism
    2:54:13 he
    2:54:13 tried
    2:54:13 to
    2:54:14 the
    2:54:14 great
    2:54:14 leap
    2:54:14 forward
    2:54:15 was
    2:54:15 this
    2:54:16 disastrous
    2:54:17 policy
    2:54:17 of his
    2:54:18 that
    2:54:18 imagined
    2:54:19 China
    2:54:20 outdoing
    2:54:21 the
    2:54:22 West
    2:54:22 in a
    2:54:23 quick
    2:54:25 industrialization
    2:54:25 and move
    2:54:25 like this
    2:54:26 and it
    2:54:27 just
    2:54:28 didn’t
    2:54:29 work
    2:54:29 and all
    2:54:29 kinds
    2:54:29 of
    2:54:30 things
    2:54:30 were
    2:54:30 wrong
    2:54:30 and
    2:54:30 that
    2:54:30 would
    2:54:30 be
    2:54:33 a
    2:54:33 whole
    2:54:33 other
    2:54:34 session
    2:54:34 to do
    2:54:34 the
    2:54:35 great
    2:54:35 leap
    2:54:36 forward
    2:54:36 and
    2:54:36 the
    2:54:36 cultural
    2:54:37 revolution
    2:54:37 but one
    2:54:37 of the
    2:54:38 simple
    2:54:38 ways
    2:54:38 to
    2:54:38 think
    2:54:39 about
    2:54:39 it
    2:54:39 is
    2:54:40 Mao
    2:54:40 made
    2:54:41 these
    2:54:41 kind
    2:54:41 of
    2:54:42 disastrous
    2:54:43 moves
    2:54:43 and
    2:54:44 then
    2:54:44 was
    2:54:44 partially
    2:54:45 sidelined
    2:54:46 and
    2:54:46 then
    2:54:46 wanted
    2:54:46 to
    2:54:46 get
    2:54:47 back
    2:54:47 to
    2:54:48 power
    2:54:49 and
    2:54:49 there
    2:54:49 was
    2:54:50 this
    2:54:50 struggle
    2:54:50 between
    2:54:51 people
    2:54:51 who
    2:54:51 are
    2:54:51 more
    2:54:52 gradualist
    2:54:53 more
    2:54:54 let’s
    2:54:54 try to
    2:54:55 work
    2:54:55 more
    2:54:55 kind
    2:54:55 of
    2:54:56 rationally
    2:54:56 and
    2:54:57 the
    2:54:57 more
    2:54:58 utopian
    2:54:58 side
    2:54:59 with
    2:54:59 Mao
    2:55:00 and
    2:55:00 both
    2:55:00 the
    2:55:01 great
    2:55:01 leap
    2:55:01 forward
    2:55:02 and
    2:55:02 then
    2:55:02 later
    2:55:02 the
    2:55:03 cultural
    2:55:03 revolution
    2:55:04 were
    2:55:05 Mao’s
    2:55:05 efforts
    2:55:06 to
    2:55:09 to do
    2:55:09 things
    2:55:10 dramatically
    2:55:11 even at the
    2:55:11 risk of
    2:55:12 chaos
    2:55:12 even at the
    2:55:13 risk of
    2:55:16 undoing a
    2:55:16 lot of the
    2:55:17 kind of slow
    2:55:18 building of
    2:55:20 state building
    2:55:21 going on
    2:55:21 and then there
    2:55:22 were other
    2:55:23 figures who
    2:55:24 were more
    2:55:25 concerned with
    2:55:27 kind of
    2:55:27 incremental
    2:55:28 moves and
    2:55:29 then after
    2:55:30 Mao’s death
    2:55:31 one of
    2:55:31 those
    2:55:31 figures
    2:55:32 Deng Xiaoping
    2:55:33 ends up
    2:55:34 being the
    2:55:35 next
    2:55:36 long-term
    2:55:37 paramount
    2:55:37 leader
    2:55:38 he led to
    2:55:39 decades of
    2:55:40 economic
    2:55:40 progress
    2:55:41 his economic
    2:55:41 reforms
    2:55:42 led to
    2:55:43 record-breaking
    2:55:43 growth for
    2:55:44 China and
    2:55:44 so on
    2:55:45 but I
    2:55:45 gotta linger
    2:55:46 on
    2:55:47 the great
    2:55:48 leap
    2:55:48 forward
    2:55:49 a bit
    2:55:50 enough to
    2:55:50 understand
    2:55:51 modern-day
    2:55:51 China
    2:55:52 so
    2:55:54 as people
    2:55:55 know
    2:55:55 as I’ll
    2:55:56 talk about
    2:55:57 in other
    2:55:57 episodes
    2:55:59 the great
    2:56:00 leap forward
    2:56:00 this
    2:56:01 agricultural
    2:56:02 collectivization
    2:56:03 and rapid
    2:56:04 attempt to
    2:56:05 industrialize
    2:56:07 has killed
    2:56:08 30 to
    2:56:09 45 million
    2:56:10 people
    2:56:11 it’s
    2:56:11 one of
    2:56:12 the greatest
    2:56:13 atrocities in
    2:56:13 human history
    2:56:15 how could
    2:56:16 Mao
    2:56:18 be so
    2:56:19 catastrophically
    2:56:19 wrong on
    2:56:20 the policy of
    2:56:21 collectivization
    2:56:23 and be
    2:56:24 so
    2:56:25 unwilling
    2:56:25 to see
    2:56:26 the atrocity
    2:56:27 and the
    2:56:27 suffering he’s
    2:56:28 causing
    2:56:29 enough to
    2:56:30 change course
    2:56:31 so with
    2:56:32 the great
    2:56:32 leap forward
    2:56:33 it’s caused
    2:56:34 this incredible
    2:56:35 famine
    2:56:36 the just
    2:56:36 incredible
    2:56:37 devastation
    2:56:38 one of the
    2:56:40 one of the
    2:56:40 things that
    2:56:41 happened was
    2:56:42 getting very
    2:56:43 bad information
    2:56:43 there was a
    2:56:44 sense that
    2:56:46 there was
    2:56:46 people
    2:56:47 officials were
    2:56:48 afraid that
    2:56:49 if they gave
    2:56:49 bad news
    2:56:50 if they
    2:56:50 if they
    2:56:52 if they
    2:56:53 admitted that
    2:56:53 they were
    2:56:53 failing to
    2:56:54 meet these
    2:56:56 giant targets
    2:56:56 that were being
    2:56:56 set
    2:56:57 that would
    2:56:58 be seen
    2:56:58 as a
    2:56:58 political
    2:56:59 mistake
    2:56:59 so it
    2:57:00 got
    2:57:01 it got
    2:57:02 to be
    2:57:03 a survival
    2:57:03 mechanism
    2:57:04 to pass
    2:57:04 on
    2:57:06 unrealistic
    2:57:06 reports
    2:57:07 on what
    2:57:07 was going
    2:57:08 so some
    2:57:08 of it
    2:57:08 was
    2:57:10 a culture
    2:57:11 of fear
    2:57:11 around a
    2:57:12 great
    2:57:12 leader
    2:57:13 that led
    2:57:14 to
    2:57:15 not getting
    2:57:17 not getting
    2:57:17 accurate
    2:57:18 information
    2:57:19 so that was
    2:57:19 one part
    2:57:19 of the
    2:57:20 dynamic
    2:57:21 ego
    2:57:21 was a
    2:57:21 big part
    2:57:22 of it
    2:57:23 there were
    2:57:23 all kinds
    2:57:24 of things
    2:57:24 that were
    2:57:25 unmoored
    2:57:27 when
    2:57:28 early in
    2:57:28 the Chinese
    2:57:29 Communist Party
    2:57:30 history
    2:57:31 and power
    2:57:32 there was
    2:57:33 the connection
    2:57:33 to the
    2:57:34 Soviet Union
    2:57:35 and Mao
    2:57:36 and Stalin
    2:57:36 had a
    2:57:36 connection
    2:57:38 after Stalin’s
    2:57:38 death
    2:57:40 Mao was
    2:57:40 haunted
    2:57:41 by the
    2:57:42 move toward
    2:57:43 de-Stalinization
    2:57:44 and the moves
    2:57:45 by Khrushchev
    2:57:46 and thus
    2:57:47 laid the groundwork
    2:57:48 for the
    2:57:49 Sino-Soviet
    2:57:50 split
    2:57:50 but there
    2:57:51 was also
    2:57:51 this kind
    2:57:52 of
    2:57:53 obsession
    2:57:54 with doing
    2:57:54 things
    2:57:55 differently
    2:57:57 that Mao
    2:57:58 had in that
    2:57:58 case as
    2:57:58 well
    2:58:00 and you
    2:58:00 have
    2:58:00 factional
    2:58:01 struggles
    2:58:01 you have
    2:58:02 all kinds
    2:58:02 of things
    2:58:02 that are
    2:58:03 happening
    2:58:04 simultaneously
    2:58:06 there’s
    2:58:06 something I
    2:58:07 learned about
    2:58:07 called
    2:58:08 Gray’s
    2:58:08 Law
    2:58:10 which states
    2:58:10 any
    2:58:11 sufficiently
    2:58:12 advanced
    2:58:12 incompetence
    2:58:13 is
    2:58:14 indistinguishable
    2:58:14 from malice
    2:58:15 so I
    2:58:16 would say
    2:58:16 when
    2:58:18 30 to
    2:58:18 45 million
    2:58:19 people die
    2:58:20 it doesn’t
    2:58:20 really matter
    2:58:21 what the
    2:58:21 explanation
    2:58:22 is
    2:58:23 that’s a
    2:58:24 longer
    2:58:24 discussion
    2:58:26 but the
    2:58:26 interesting
    2:58:27 discussion
    2:58:27 that connects
    2:58:28 to everything
    2:58:28 we’ve been
    2:58:29 talking about
    2:58:29 is
    2:58:30 how is
    2:58:31 Mao
    2:58:32 seen
    2:58:33 in modern
    2:58:33 day China
    2:58:34 what has
    2:58:35 Xi Jinping
    2:58:37 said
    2:58:38 about
    2:58:38 Mao
    2:58:39 so
    2:58:40 before
    2:58:41 Xi Jinping
    2:58:42 there was
    2:58:42 this
    2:58:43 kind of
    2:58:45 assessment
    2:58:45 of
    2:58:46 Mao
    2:58:46 as
    2:58:47 having
    2:58:47 been
    2:58:48 early
    2:58:48 in the
    2:58:49 early
    2:58:49 80s
    2:58:50 of being
    2:58:51 70%
    2:58:51 right
    2:58:52 30%
    2:58:53 wrong
    2:58:53 I guess
    2:58:53 Mao’s
    2:58:54 own
    2:58:54 analysis
    2:58:54 of
    2:58:55 Stalin
    2:58:56 was
    2:58:57 that
    2:58:57 Stalin
    2:58:57 was
    2:58:58 70%
    2:58:58 right
    2:58:59 and
    2:58:59 30%
    2:58:59 wrong
    2:59:01 so they
    2:59:01 applied
    2:59:02 the same
    2:59:02 kind of
    2:59:03 logic
    2:59:03 there
    2:59:04 mathematical
    2:59:05 analysis
    2:59:05 to
    2:59:06 Mao
    2:59:06 yeah
    2:59:07 but
    2:59:08 Xi Jinping
    2:59:09 has had
    2:59:09 a different
    2:59:10 way of
    2:59:10 talking
    2:59:11 about
    2:59:11 this
    2:59:11 and
    2:59:11 he’s
    2:59:12 talked
    2:59:12 about
    2:59:12 the
    2:59:12 first
    2:59:13 30
    2:59:13 years
    2:59:13 of
    2:59:13 the
    2:59:14 people’s
    2:59:14 republic
    2:59:14 of
    2:59:14 China
    2:59:14 and
    2:59:15 the
    2:59:15 second
    2:59:15 30
    2:59:16 years
    2:59:17 and
    2:59:17 says
    2:59:17 that
    2:59:17 we
    2:59:17 should
    2:59:18 not
    2:59:19 use
    2:59:19 the
    2:59:20 successes
    2:59:20 of
    2:59:20 one
    2:59:21 to
    2:59:21 criticize
    2:59:21 the
    2:59:22 other
    2:59:22 that
    2:59:22 we
    2:59:22 need
    2:59:22 to
    2:59:23 see
    2:59:24 where
    2:59:24 we
    2:59:24 are
    2:59:25 today
    2:59:26 as
    2:59:28 benefiting
    2:59:28 from
    2:59:28 both
    2:59:29 those
    2:59:29 first
    2:59:29 30
    2:59:29 years
    2:59:30 and
    2:59:30 those
    2:59:30 second
    2:59:30 30
    2:59:31 years
    2:59:32 which
    2:59:33 implicitly
    2:59:33 or
    2:59:33 he
    2:59:33 sometimes
    2:59:34 talks
    2:59:34 about
    2:59:34 a
    2:59:34 new
    2:59:34 era
    2:59:35 suggests
    2:59:35 that
    2:59:36 in
    2:59:36 many
    2:59:37 ways
    2:59:37 he
    2:59:38 sees
    2:59:38 China
    2:59:38 as
    2:59:39 now
    2:59:39 in
    2:59:39 a
    2:59:40 post
    2:59:41 reform
    2:59:41 era
    2:59:42 we
    2:59:42 can
    2:59:42 think
    2:59:43 about
    2:59:43 a
    2:59:44 third
    2:59:44 stage
    2:59:44 and
    2:59:45 there
    2:59:45 are
    2:59:45 people
    2:59:45 who
    2:59:45 write
    2:59:45 about
    2:59:46 it
    2:59:46 in
    2:59:46 that
    2:59:46 way
    2:59:48 and
    2:59:48 so
    2:59:48 he
    2:59:49 clearly
    2:59:51 there’s
    2:59:51 always
    2:59:52 been a
    2:59:52 way
    2:59:52 of
    2:59:52 trying
    2:59:53 to
    2:59:54 separate
    2:59:55 out
    2:59:55 a
    2:59:55 kind
    2:59:55 of
    2:59:56 Mao
    2:59:56 of
    2:59:56 the
    2:59:57 periods
    2:59:57 when
    2:59:57 things
    2:59:57 were
    2:59:58 not
    2:59:59 going
    2:59:59 horribly
    3:00:01 and
    3:00:02 I
    3:00:02 think
    3:00:02 Xi
    3:00:02 Jinping
    3:00:03 would
    3:00:03 think
    3:00:03 that
    3:00:04 Mao
    3:00:05 having
    3:00:06 managed
    3:00:06 to
    3:00:06 fight
    3:00:07 the
    3:00:07 Korean
    3:00:07 War
    3:00:07 to
    3:00:08 a
    3:00:08 standstill
    3:00:09 which
    3:00:09 is
    3:00:09 how
    3:00:10 things
    3:00:11 are
    3:00:11 how
    3:00:12 the
    3:00:12 history
    3:00:12 of
    3:00:13 that
    3:00:13 period
    3:00:13 is
    3:00:14 described
    3:00:15 in
    3:00:15 the
    3:00:15 PRC
    3:00:15 and said
    3:00:16 look
    3:00:16 you had
    3:00:18 so many
    3:00:18 different
    3:00:18 forces
    3:00:19 of the
    3:00:19 more
    3:00:19 developed
    3:00:20 world
    3:00:21 fighting
    3:00:21 on one
    3:00:22 side
    3:00:22 and
    3:00:22 that
    3:00:23 war
    3:00:23 did
    3:00:23 not
    3:00:24 end
    3:00:24 in
    3:00:24 a
    3:00:24 defeat
    3:00:25 for
    3:00:26 North
    3:00:27 Korea
    3:00:27 and
    3:00:27 for
    3:00:27 the
    3:00:28 Chinese
    3:00:28 side
    3:00:30 so
    3:00:30 yeah
    3:00:31 Xi
    3:00:31 Jinping
    3:00:31 I
    3:00:31 think
    3:00:32 wants
    3:00:32 to
    3:00:32 be
    3:00:32 seen
    3:00:32 as
    3:00:33 an
    3:00:33 inheritor
    3:00:36 of
    3:00:36 Mao
    3:00:37 continue
    3:00:38 of
    3:00:38 one
    3:00:39 side
    3:00:39 of
    3:00:39 the
    3:00:39 Mao
    3:00:40 legacy
    3:00:41 but
    3:00:41 clearly
    3:00:42 circling
    3:00:42 back
    3:00:42 to
    3:00:43 where
    3:00:43 we
    3:00:43 began
    3:00:44 not
    3:00:44 the
    3:00:45 Mao
    3:00:45 who
    3:00:45 liked
    3:00:45 to
    3:00:46 stir
    3:00:46 things
    3:00:46 up
    3:00:47 not
    3:00:47 the
    3:00:47 Mao
    3:00:47 who
    3:00:48 believed
    3:00:48 in
    3:00:49 mobilizing
    3:00:50 youth
    3:00:50 on
    3:00:51 the
    3:00:51 streets
    3:00:52 Jews
    3:00:52 not
    3:00:52 the
    3:00:52 Mao
    3:00:53 who
    3:00:53 let
    3:00:53 things
    3:00:53 get
    3:00:54 out
    3:00:54 of
    3:00:54 control
    3:00:55 but
    3:00:55 the
    3:00:55 Mao
    3:00:56 who
    3:00:56 was
    3:00:57 responsible
    3:00:57 for
    3:00:58 strengthening
    3:00:58 the
    3:00:58 nation
    3:01:00 can
    3:01:00 I
    3:01:00 ask
    3:01:00 you
    3:01:00 about
    3:01:00 the
    3:01:01 1953
    3:01:02 speech
    3:01:02 can you
    3:01:03 just watch
    3:01:03 it real
    3:01:04 quick
    3:01:04 this
    3:01:04 particular
    3:01:05 speech
    3:01:06 is about
    3:01:08 in 1953
    3:01:09 at the
    3:01:09 end of
    3:01:09 the Korean
    3:01:10 war
    3:01:11 saying
    3:01:11 China
    3:01:11 will
    3:01:11 not
    3:01:12 surrender
    3:01:13 well
    3:01:14 let’s
    3:01:14 actually
    3:01:14 just
    3:01:14 listen
    3:01:15 to
    3:01:15 it
    3:01:15 the
    3:01:16 speech
    3:01:16 reads
    3:01:17 as
    3:01:17 to
    3:01:18 how
    3:01:18 long
    3:01:18 this
    3:01:19 war
    3:01:19 will
    3:01:19 last
    3:01:19 we’re
    3:01:20 not
    3:01:20 the
    3:01:20 ones
    3:01:20 who
    3:01:21 can
    3:01:21 decide
    3:01:22 it
    3:01:23 used
    3:01:23 to
    3:01:23 depend
    3:01:23 on
    3:01:24 President
    3:01:24 Truman
    3:01:25 it
    3:01:25 will
    3:01:25 depend
    3:01:25 on
    3:01:26 President
    3:01:26 Eisenhower
    3:01:27 or
    3:01:28 whoever
    3:01:28 will
    3:01:28 become
    3:01:28 the
    3:01:29 next
    3:01:29 U.S.
    3:01:29 president
    3:01:30 it’s
    3:01:30 up
    3:01:30 to
    3:01:30 them
    3:01:31 but
    3:01:31 no
    3:01:31 matter
    3:01:32 how
    3:01:32 long
    3:01:32 this
    3:01:33 war
    3:01:33 is
    3:01:33 going
    3:01:33 to
    3:01:34 last
    3:01:34 we
    3:01:35 will
    3:01:35 never
    3:01:36 yield
    3:01:45 we’ll
    3:01:45 fight
    3:01:46 until
    3:01:46 we
    3:01:46 completely
    3:01:47 triumph
    3:01:49 yeah
    3:01:49 so
    3:01:49 this
    3:01:50 is
    3:01:52 the
    3:01:52 version
    3:01:52 of
    3:01:52 Mao
    3:01:52 that
    3:01:53 you’re
    3:01:53 speaking
    3:01:53 to
    3:01:54 that
    3:01:55 is
    3:01:55 still
    3:01:56 celebrated
    3:01:57 today
    3:01:58 and
    3:01:59 from
    3:01:59 the
    3:02:00 Chinese
    3:02:00 perspective
    3:02:01 I guess
    3:02:01 they could
    3:02:01 tell the
    3:02:01 story
    3:02:02 about
    3:02:02 that
    3:02:02 particular
    3:02:03 proxy
    3:02:03 war
    3:02:03 that
    3:02:03 they
    3:02:05 triumphed
    3:02:06 now
    3:02:07 what do
    3:02:07 you think
    3:02:07 about that
    3:02:08 speech
    3:02:08 about
    3:02:08 these
    3:02:09 performances
    3:02:09 I
    3:02:16 well
    3:02:16 he
    3:02:16 had
    3:02:17 a
    3:02:17 really
    3:02:18 difficult
    3:02:18 accent
    3:02:19 to
    3:02:20 make
    3:02:20 sense
    3:02:20 of
    3:02:20 and
    3:02:21 people
    3:02:22 native
    3:02:23 speakers
    3:02:23 of
    3:02:23 Chinese
    3:02:24 can
    3:02:24 have
    3:02:24 trouble
    3:02:24 with
    3:02:26 his
    3:02:28 speech
    3:02:29 that
    3:02:29 one
    3:02:29 was
    3:02:29 less
    3:02:31 hard
    3:02:31 to
    3:02:31 follow
    3:02:31 than
    3:02:33 some
    3:02:33 of
    3:02:33 them
    3:02:33 what
    3:02:34 explains
    3:02:34 the
    3:02:34 accent
    3:02:35 well
    3:02:35 he’s
    3:02:35 just
    3:02:35 from
    3:02:36 Hunan
    3:02:37 and
    3:02:37 he
    3:02:37 had
    3:02:38 a
    3:02:38 heavy
    3:02:39 accent
    3:02:40 this
    3:02:41 is
    3:02:42 another
    3:02:42 complicated
    3:02:43 side
    3:02:43 of
    3:02:44 Mao
    3:02:44 he
    3:02:45 was
    3:02:47 both
    3:02:48 anti-intellectual
    3:02:48 and very
    3:02:49 intellectual
    3:02:50 he liked
    3:02:50 to
    3:02:51 write
    3:02:52 poetry
    3:02:52 and to
    3:02:52 fashion
    3:02:53 himself
    3:02:53 as that
    3:02:54 but he
    3:02:54 also liked
    3:02:55 to be
    3:02:55 seen as
    3:02:56 incredibly
    3:02:56 earthy
    3:02:58 and
    3:02:59 critical
    3:02:59 of
    3:03:02 intellectuals
    3:03:02 and
    3:03:03 if he
    3:03:03 had an
    3:03:04 animus
    3:03:04 toward
    3:03:04 you know
    3:03:05 wanting
    3:03:06 to
    3:03:06 even
    3:03:06 though
    3:03:06 he
    3:03:07 was
    3:03:09 intellectual
    3:03:09 he had
    3:03:09 that
    3:03:10 anti-intellectualism
    3:03:11 but no
    3:03:11 I think
    3:03:11 what’s
    3:03:12 interesting
    3:03:12 about that
    3:03:13 speech
    3:03:13 in part
    3:03:14 is
    3:03:14 how
    3:03:17 in
    3:03:17 even
    3:03:17 the
    3:03:18 depiction
    3:03:18 of
    3:03:19 the
    3:03:20 Korean
    3:03:20 War
    3:03:20 as
    3:03:21 being
    3:03:21 the
    3:03:22 war
    3:03:22 against
    3:03:23 America
    3:03:23 and
    3:03:23 resist
    3:03:24 America
    3:03:24 and
    3:03:25 support
    3:03:25 Korea
    3:03:26 I
    3:03:27 think
    3:03:27 it
    3:03:27 fit
    3:03:27 with
    3:03:28 his
    3:03:28 idea
    3:03:29 that
    3:03:30 it
    3:03:31 wasn’t
    3:03:31 just
    3:03:31 about
    3:03:32 China
    3:03:34 working
    3:03:35 in
    3:03:35 self
    3:03:36 interest
    3:03:36 but
    3:03:36 siding
    3:03:37 with
    3:03:39 the
    3:03:40 underdog
    3:03:41 countries
    3:03:42 against
    3:03:43 the
    3:03:43 hegemonic
    3:03:44 ones
    3:03:45 and
    3:03:45 that
    3:03:45 was
    3:03:46 another
    3:03:46 part
    3:03:46 of
    3:03:47 Mao’s
    3:03:49 desire
    3:03:49 to
    3:03:50 see
    3:03:50 China
    3:03:50 as
    3:03:51 representing
    3:03:52 the
    3:03:52 kind
    3:03:53 of
    3:03:56 third
    3:03:56 world
    3:03:56 and
    3:03:57 the
    3:04:00 countries
    3:04:00 that had
    3:04:01 felt the
    3:04:01 brunt
    3:04:02 of
    3:04:03 imperialism
    3:04:05 Western
    3:04:05 imperialism
    3:04:05 and
    3:04:06 Japanese
    3:04:07 imperialism
    3:04:07 and
    3:04:08 trying to
    3:04:08 find
    3:04:09 one or
    3:04:09 another
    3:04:13 country’s
    3:04:14 imperialism
    3:04:14 to focus
    3:04:15 on
    3:04:15 and that
    3:04:15 point
    3:04:16 he was
    3:04:16 focusing
    3:04:16 on
    3:04:17 America
    3:04:17 which
    3:04:17 is
    3:04:17 something
    3:04:18 that
    3:04:18 can
    3:04:18 have
    3:04:19 particular
    3:04:20 resonances
    3:04:21 now
    3:04:23 Mao
    3:04:23 could
    3:04:24 alternate
    3:04:24 that
    3:04:25 certain
    3:04:25 points
    3:04:25 he
    3:04:25 thought
    3:04:26 there
    3:04:26 should
    3:04:26 be
    3:04:27 an
    3:04:27 alliance
    3:04:27 with
    3:04:28 where
    3:04:28 he
    3:04:28 said
    3:04:29 that
    3:04:29 China
    3:04:29 should
    3:04:29 be
    3:04:30 able
    3:04:30 to
    3:04:30 work
    3:04:30 with
    3:04:31 Japan
    3:04:32 because
    3:04:35 at one
    3:04:35 point
    3:04:35 he said
    3:04:36 well
    3:04:36 without
    3:04:36 Japanese
    3:04:37 imperialism
    3:04:37 the
    3:04:37 Communist
    3:04:38 Party
    3:04:38 wouldn’t
    3:04:38 have
    3:04:38 risen
    3:04:39 because
    3:04:39 we
    3:04:40 wouldn’t
    3:04:40 have
    3:04:40 had
    3:04:40 this
    3:04:41 ability
    3:04:41 to
    3:04:41 unite
    3:04:42 the
    3:04:42 people
    3:04:44 we
    3:04:45 have
    3:04:45 seen
    3:04:45 in
    3:04:47 the
    3:04:47 post
    3:04:47 Mao
    3:04:48 period
    3:04:48 some
    3:04:49 leaders
    3:04:49 playing
    3:04:49 on
    3:04:51 anti-Japanese
    3:04:51 sentiment
    3:04:52 because
    3:04:52 of the
    3:04:52 history
    3:04:53 of
    3:04:54 Japanese
    3:04:54 aggression
    3:04:55 or
    3:04:56 there
    3:04:56 can
    3:04:57 be
    3:04:57 anti-American
    3:04:58 sentiment
    3:04:58 because
    3:04:58 of
    3:05:00 the
    3:05:01 history
    3:05:01 of
    3:05:01 American
    3:05:02 roles
    3:05:02 in
    3:05:03 imperialism
    3:05:04 or
    3:05:04 it
    3:05:04 can
    3:05:04 be
    3:05:04 played
    3:05:05 in
    3:05:05 a
    3:05:05 different
    3:05:05 way
    3:05:05 the
    3:05:05 United
    3:05:06 States
    3:05:06 certainly
    3:05:07 tried
    3:05:07 that
    3:05:07 the
    3:05:07 United
    3:05:08 States
    3:05:08 didn’t
    3:05:08 have
    3:05:08 formal
    3:05:09 colonies
    3:05:10 in
    3:05:12 Asia
    3:05:13 the way
    3:05:13 that
    3:05:14 Britain
    3:05:15 and France
    3:05:15 did
    3:05:15 and tried
    3:05:16 to present
    3:05:16 itself
    3:05:17 differently
    3:05:17 so
    3:05:17 these
    3:05:18 things
    3:05:18 are
    3:05:19 but
    3:05:19 these
    3:05:19 things
    3:05:19 are
    3:05:20 also
    3:05:20 kind
    3:05:20 of
    3:05:20 in
    3:05:21 flux
    3:05:21 and
    3:05:21 now
    3:05:21 we’re
    3:05:22 in
    3:05:22 this
    3:05:22 very
    3:05:23 unusual
    3:05:24 influx
    3:05:24 period
    3:05:25 at
    3:05:25 the
    3:05:25 beginning
    3:05:25 of
    3:05:26 the
    3:05:27 imposition
    3:05:27 of
    3:05:28 tariffs
    3:05:28 there
    3:05:28 were
    3:05:29 leaders
    3:05:30 of
    3:05:30 China
    3:05:31 Japan
    3:05:31 and
    3:05:32 Korea
    3:05:32 all
    3:05:33 to
    3:05:33 South
    3:05:33 Korea
    3:05:34 all
    3:05:34 together
    3:05:35 in
    3:05:36 photo ops
    3:05:36 which
    3:05:37 was not
    3:05:37 something
    3:05:38 that
    3:05:39 I mean
    3:05:40 being on
    3:05:40 the same
    3:05:40 side
    3:05:41 so
    3:05:41 so
    3:05:41 I think
    3:05:41 this
    3:05:42 is
    3:05:42 also
    3:05:42 just
    3:05:42 a
    3:05:43 broader
    3:05:43 lesson
    3:05:44 to
    3:05:44 not
    3:05:46 assume
    3:05:46 that
    3:05:46 configurations
    3:05:47 will
    3:05:47 always
    3:05:48 stay
    3:05:49 if
    3:05:49 you
    3:05:49 look
    3:05:50 out
    3:05:50 into
    3:05:50 the
    3:05:51 21st
    3:05:51 century
    3:05:53 what
    3:05:53 are
    3:05:53 some
    3:05:53 of
    3:05:54 the
    3:05:54 best
    3:05:54 possible
    3:05:55 things
    3:05:55 that
    3:05:55 could
    3:05:55 happen
    3:05:55 in
    3:05:55 the
    3:05:56 region
    3:05:57 and
    3:05:57 globally
    3:05:59 with
    3:05:59 China
    3:06:00 at the
    3:06:00 center
    3:06:01 of the
    3:06:01 world
    3:06:01 stage
    3:06:02 what
    3:06:02 are
    3:06:02 the
    3:06:03 possible
    3:06:03 trajectories
    3:06:04 you
    3:06:04 could
    3:06:04 see
    3:06:05 culturally
    3:06:07 economically
    3:06:08 politically
    3:06:09 in
    3:06:09 terms
    3:06:10 of
    3:06:10 partnerships
    3:06:10 and
    3:06:11 all
    3:06:11 this
    3:06:11 kind
    3:06:11 of
    3:06:11 stuff
    3:06:14 it’s
    3:06:14 such a
    3:06:15 such a
    3:06:15 such a
    3:06:16 hard
    3:06:16 moment
    3:06:17 to be
    3:06:17 imagining
    3:06:18 these
    3:06:18 things
    3:06:19 I mean
    3:06:19 I’ve
    3:06:20 long
    3:06:20 wanted
    3:06:21 to see
    3:06:23 a
    3:06:23 return
    3:06:24 of
    3:06:24 China
    3:06:25 to
    3:06:26 this
    3:06:26 path
    3:06:26 toward
    3:06:27 a
    3:06:27 more
    3:06:27 kind
    3:06:28 of
    3:06:30 yeah
    3:06:30 it wasn’t
    3:06:30 one of
    3:06:31 the people
    3:06:31 who
    3:06:32 imagined
    3:06:32 that
    3:06:34 there
    3:06:35 would be
    3:06:35 this
    3:06:35 convergence
    3:06:36 of
    3:06:37 sort
    3:06:37 of
    3:06:37 where
    3:06:37 China’s
    3:06:38 emergence
    3:06:38 into
    3:06:39 evolution
    3:06:39 into
    3:06:40 a
    3:06:40 liberal
    3:06:41 capitalist
    3:06:42 kind
    3:06:42 of
    3:06:42 country
    3:06:43 but
    3:06:44 I’d
    3:06:44 love
    3:06:44 to
    3:06:45 see
    3:06:45 a
    3:06:45 return
    3:06:45 to
    3:06:46 that
    3:06:46 more
    3:06:47 kind
    3:06:47 of
    3:06:48 tolerance
    3:06:48 of
    3:06:49 diversity
    3:06:49 within
    3:06:49 China
    3:06:50 variations
    3:06:51 within
    3:06:51 China
    3:06:52 more
    3:06:52 space
    3:06:52 for
    3:06:53 civil
    3:06:53 society
    3:06:55 and
    3:06:56 it’s
    3:06:56 a hard
    3:06:57 time to
    3:06:57 even
    3:06:57 imagine
    3:06:58 that
    3:06:58 because
    3:06:58 Hong Kong
    3:06:58 kind
    3:06:59 of
    3:06:59 represented
    3:07:01 that
    3:07:03 place
    3:07:03 that
    3:07:03 was
    3:07:03 somehow
    3:07:04 within
    3:07:04 it
    3:07:04 was
    3:07:04 an
    3:07:05 amazing
    3:07:05 thing
    3:07:05 I think
    3:07:06 looking
    3:07:06 backward
    3:07:08 rather than
    3:07:08 forward
    3:07:09 I think
    3:07:09 it’s
    3:07:10 really
    3:07:10 extraordinary
    3:07:11 how much
    3:07:13 leeway was
    3:07:13 given to
    3:07:14 Hong Kong
    3:07:14 for a
    3:07:15 period
    3:07:15 there
    3:07:16 that was
    3:07:16 really
    3:07:16 special
    3:07:17 no
    3:07:17 communist
    3:07:18 party
    3:07:18 run
    3:07:19 country
    3:07:19 had ever
    3:07:20 had a
    3:07:20 city
    3:07:20 within
    3:07:20 it
    3:07:21 that had
    3:07:22 as free
    3:07:23 a press
    3:07:23 as Hong Kong
    3:07:24 had then
    3:07:24 as much
    3:07:25 tolerance
    3:07:25 for
    3:07:27 protests
    3:07:28 and
    3:07:28 and
    3:07:28 and
    3:07:29 I
    3:07:29 think
    3:07:29 it
    3:07:30 was
    3:07:31 I
    3:07:31 mean
    3:07:32 I
    3:07:33 hope
    3:07:33 it
    3:07:33 can
    3:07:33 be
    3:07:34 seen
    3:07:34 by
    3:07:34 some
    3:07:35 at least
    3:07:35 within
    3:07:35 Beijing
    3:07:36 as a
    3:07:36 miscalculation
    3:07:37 too
    3:07:38 the
    3:07:38 people
    3:07:39 trying to
    3:07:39 wanted
    3:07:40 soft
    3:07:40 power
    3:07:41 and
    3:07:41 Hong Kong
    3:07:42 films
    3:07:43 were admired
    3:07:43 around the
    3:07:43 world
    3:07:44 this industry
    3:07:45 it was
    3:07:46 there was a
    3:07:46 way in which
    3:07:47 creativity
    3:07:48 flourishing
    3:07:49 so I
    3:07:49 guess
    3:07:49 it
    3:07:49 would
    3:07:49 be
    3:07:49 just
    3:07:49 the
    3:07:50 hope
    3:07:51 for
    3:07:51 more
    3:07:53 more
    3:07:54 spaces
    3:07:54 where
    3:07:55 that
    3:07:55 kind
    3:07:56 of
    3:07:57 creativity
    3:07:58 and
    3:07:58 openness
    3:07:59 debate
    3:07:59 where things
    3:08:00 can
    3:08:00 flourish
    3:08:00 I
    3:08:02 love to
    3:08:02 think
    3:08:02 that
    3:08:02 there
    3:08:03 actually
    3:08:03 are
    3:08:04 variety
    3:08:04 of
    3:08:04 things
    3:08:04 in
    3:08:05 Taiwan
    3:08:06 that
    3:08:06 if
    3:08:06 those
    3:08:06 could
    3:08:07 become
    3:08:08 broader
    3:08:09 norms
    3:08:11 not
    3:08:11 that
    3:08:12 Taiwan’s
    3:08:12 perfect
    3:08:12 it
    3:08:13 has
    3:08:13 its
    3:08:13 own
    3:08:14 internal
    3:08:15 problems
    3:08:15 but
    3:08:15 there
    3:08:16 are
    3:08:16 many
    3:08:17 really
    3:08:17 attractive
    3:08:18 things
    3:08:18 about
    3:08:18 it
    3:08:19 right
    3:08:19 now
    3:08:20 different
    3:08:20 kinds
    3:08:20 of
    3:08:21 things
    3:08:21 that
    3:08:21 flourish
    3:08:23 so
    3:08:24 maybe
    3:08:25 a
    3:08:27 setting
    3:08:27 in which
    3:08:27 Taiwan
    3:08:28 and
    3:08:29 in
    3:08:29 its
    3:08:30 post
    3:08:32 martial
    3:08:32 law
    3:08:33 post
    3:08:34 Leninist
    3:08:35 incarnation
    3:08:38 would be
    3:08:38 something
    3:08:39 that we
    3:08:39 could
    3:08:39 think
    3:08:39 of
    3:08:39 more
    3:08:41 yeah
    3:08:41 and
    3:08:41 you’re
    3:08:41 right
    3:08:42 Taiwan
    3:08:42 and
    3:08:43 especially
    3:08:43 Hong
    3:08:44 Kong
    3:08:44 are
    3:08:45 these
    3:08:45 it’s
    3:08:46 a truly
    3:08:46 special
    3:08:47 place
    3:08:47 it’s
    3:08:48 a case
    3:08:49 study
    3:08:50 it
    3:08:50 doesn’t
    3:08:50 make
    3:08:51 sense
    3:08:51 that
    3:08:51 that
    3:08:51 would
    3:08:51 happen
    3:08:52 but
    3:08:52 it
    3:08:52 happened
    3:08:53 history
    3:08:53 is
    3:08:53 full
    3:08:53 of
    3:08:54 wonderful
    3:08:54 things
    3:08:54 like
    3:08:54 this
    3:08:56 and
    3:08:56 I
    3:08:56 guess
    3:08:57 can you
    3:08:57 clarify
    3:08:58 you think
    3:08:58 the protests
    3:08:59 of 2019
    3:09:00 like the protests
    3:09:01 in 20
    3:09:03 they’re mostly
    3:09:04 a failure
    3:09:05 is there still
    3:09:06 a possibility
    3:09:07 that Hong Kong
    3:09:08 like rises
    3:09:09 and
    3:09:11 its
    3:09:12 way of
    3:09:13 life
    3:09:13 its way
    3:09:14 of being
    3:09:14 the
    3:09:14 democratic
    3:09:16 ideals
    3:09:17 not
    3:09:17 necessarily
    3:09:17 full
    3:09:18 on
    3:09:18 democracy
    3:09:18 or
    3:09:19 this
    3:09:19 kind
    3:09:19 of
    3:09:19 thing
    3:09:20 but
    3:09:20 would
    3:09:21 actually
    3:09:22 in a
    3:09:23 sense
    3:09:25 permeate
    3:09:26 China
    3:09:27 not the
    3:09:27 other way
    3:09:27 around
    3:09:28 so that
    3:09:29 was a hope
    3:09:29 early on
    3:09:30 and there
    3:09:30 were ways
    3:09:31 in which
    3:09:31 some
    3:09:32 parts
    3:09:32 of Hong
    3:09:32 Kong
    3:09:33 style
    3:09:33 even
    3:09:34 sort of
    3:09:35 permeated
    3:09:35 across
    3:09:35 the border
    3:09:36 I think
    3:09:37 it’s hard
    3:09:38 to see
    3:09:38 it
    3:09:39 now
    3:09:39 with how
    3:09:40 Hong
    3:09:40 Kong
    3:09:40 has
    3:09:40 changed
    3:09:41 but
    3:09:42 I
    3:09:42 hesitate
    3:09:43 to
    3:09:43 I
    3:09:43 mean
    3:09:44 an
    3:09:44 awareness
    3:09:44 of
    3:09:45 the
    3:09:46 unpredictability
    3:09:46 of
    3:09:47 things
    3:09:47 there’s
    3:09:48 no way
    3:09:48 to know
    3:09:48 what
    3:09:48 kind
    3:09:48 of
    3:09:49 thing
    3:09:49 there
    3:09:49 would
    3:09:49 be
    3:09:49 for
    3:09:50 Hong
    3:09:50 Kong
    3:09:50 later
    3:09:51 I
    3:09:51 do
    3:09:51 think
    3:09:51 there
    3:09:51 are
    3:09:52 things
    3:09:52 about
    3:09:53 Hong
    3:09:53 Kong
    3:09:54 that
    3:09:54 even
    3:09:54 in
    3:09:55 the
    3:09:55 failure
    3:09:55 of
    3:09:56 the
    3:09:56 movement
    3:09:57 have
    3:09:57 been
    3:09:58 have
    3:09:58 had
    3:10:01 repercussions
    3:10:01 that are
    3:10:01 not
    3:10:03 all
    3:10:03 negative
    3:10:03 I
    3:10:04 think
    3:10:05 the
    3:10:05 Hong
    3:10:05 Kong
    3:10:06 spirit
    3:10:06 which
    3:10:06 is
    3:10:07 being
    3:10:07 kept
    3:10:07 alive
    3:10:08 in
    3:10:08 diaspora
    3:10:09 communities
    3:10:10 around
    3:10:10 the
    3:10:11 world
    3:10:11 is
    3:10:11 really
    3:10:11 interesting
    3:10:12 there
    3:10:13 are
    3:10:13 things
    3:10:13 that
    3:10:14 are
    3:10:15 spreading
    3:10:16 I
    3:10:16 think
    3:10:16 Hong
    3:10:17 Kong
    3:10:17 represented
    3:10:18 a
    3:10:19 vision
    3:10:19 of a
    3:10:19 different
    3:10:20 way
    3:10:20 of
    3:10:21 being
    3:10:21 Chinese
    3:10:21 a
    3:10:21 different
    3:10:22 notion
    3:10:22 of
    3:10:23 Chineseness
    3:10:24 and I
    3:10:24 think
    3:10:24 that
    3:10:25 is
    3:10:25 something
    3:10:25 that
    3:10:26 exists
    3:10:28 and
    3:10:28 there
    3:10:28 have
    3:10:29 been
    3:10:29 protesters
    3:10:29 in
    3:10:30 a lot
    3:10:30 of
    3:10:30 other
    3:10:30 parts
    3:10:31 of
    3:10:31 the
    3:10:31 world
    3:10:31 Belarus
    3:10:32 to
    3:10:33 I
    3:10:33 used
    3:10:33 to
    3:10:33 say
    3:10:34 from
    3:10:35 Minneapolis
    3:10:35 to
    3:10:36 Minsk
    3:10:37 because
    3:10:37 in
    3:10:37 2020
    3:10:37 there
    3:10:38 were
    3:10:38 protests
    3:10:38 in
    3:10:38 the
    3:10:39 U.S.
    3:10:39 and
    3:10:39 in
    3:10:40 Belarus
    3:10:40 where
    3:10:40 there
    3:10:41 were
    3:10:41 activists
    3:10:42 who
    3:10:42 were
    3:10:42 talking
    3:10:42 about
    3:10:43 the
    3:10:43 Hong
    3:10:43 Kong
    3:10:44 idea
    3:10:44 of
    3:10:46 trying
    3:10:46 to
    3:10:47 focus
    3:10:47 on
    3:10:48 more
    3:10:49 flexible
    3:10:50 protest
    3:10:51 tactics
    3:10:51 something
    3:10:52 and
    3:10:52 clearly
    3:10:53 in
    3:10:53 Thailand
    3:10:54 there
    3:10:54 were
    3:10:54 people
    3:10:54 who
    3:10:55 looked
    3:10:56 at
    3:10:56 things
    3:10:56 to
    3:10:57 learn
    3:10:57 from
    3:10:57 Hong
    3:10:57 Kong
    3:10:58 even
    3:10:58 in
    3:10:58 defeat
    3:10:59 there
    3:10:59 there
    3:10:59 there
    3:11:00 is
    3:11:00 a
    3:11:00 New
    3:11:01 Zealand
    3:11:01 based
    3:11:01 China
    3:11:02 specialist
    3:11:02 Jeremy
    3:11:03 Barmé
    3:11:03 who
    3:11:03 talks
    3:11:04 about
    3:11:04 the
    3:11:04 other
    3:11:05 China
    3:11:05 which
    3:11:06 can
    3:11:06 exist
    3:11:06 within
    3:11:07 China
    3:11:08 physical
    3:11:08 China
    3:11:08 or
    3:11:09 elsewhere
    3:11:09 which
    3:11:09 is
    3:11:10 this
    3:11:12 equally
    3:11:13 attached
    3:11:13 to
    3:11:14 Chinese
    3:11:14 traditions
    3:11:15 but
    3:11:15 thinking
    3:11:15 of
    3:11:15 those
    3:11:16 traditions
    3:11:16 as
    3:11:16 including
    3:11:17 not
    3:11:17 just
    3:11:18 Confucianism
    3:11:18 but
    3:11:19 Taoism
    3:11:20 not
    3:11:20 just
    3:11:21 hierarchy
    3:11:22 but
    3:11:22 also
    3:11:23 openness
    3:11:23 to
    3:11:24 cosmopolitanism
    3:11:24 not
    3:11:25 just
    3:11:25 nationalism
    3:11:25 but
    3:11:26 cosmopolitanism
    3:11:27 and
    3:11:27 I
    3:11:28 think
    3:11:28 there
    3:11:28 are
    3:11:28 some
    3:11:31 elements
    3:11:31 of
    3:11:32 that
    3:11:32 that
    3:11:32 even
    3:11:32 in
    3:11:33 failure
    3:11:34 the
    3:11:34 Hong
    3:11:34 Kong
    3:11:35 movements
    3:11:35 the
    3:11:35 Hong
    3:11:35 Kong
    3:11:36 protests
    3:11:36 of
    3:11:36 the
    3:11:37 2020s
    3:11:37 were
    3:11:37 a
    3:11:37 last
    3:11:38 flourishing
    3:11:39 of
    3:11:39 that
    3:11:39 and
    3:11:39 we
    3:11:40 can
    3:11:40 see
    3:11:40 some
    3:11:40 elements
    3:11:40 of
    3:11:41 that
    3:11:42 in
    3:11:43 we
    3:11:43 can
    3:11:44 think
    3:11:44 of
    3:11:44 Taiwan
    3:11:45 elements
    3:11:45 of
    3:11:45 that
    3:11:46 as
    3:11:46 another
    3:11:46 China
    3:11:47 as
    3:11:47 well
    3:11:49 and
    3:11:49 I
    3:11:50 think
    3:11:50 recovering
    3:11:51 not
    3:11:52 allowing
    3:11:53 the
    3:11:53 particular
    3:11:54 version
    3:11:54 of
    3:11:55 Chineseness
    3:11:55 that
    3:11:55 the
    3:11:56 Chinese
    3:11:57 Communist Party
    3:11:57 under
    3:11:57 Xi Jinping
    3:11:58 wants
    3:11:59 to
    3:11:59 make
    3:12:00 people
    3:12:00 think
    3:12:01 of
    3:12:01 as
    3:12:02 the
    3:12:02 essence
    3:12:02 of
    3:12:03 Chinese
    3:12:03 Chinese
    3:12:04 China
    3:12:05 has
    3:12:05 multiple
    3:12:06 cultural
    3:12:07 strands
    3:12:07 multiple
    3:12:08 traditions
    3:12:09 that
    3:12:09 people
    3:12:10 can
    3:12:10 tap
    3:12:11 into
    3:12:12 and
    3:12:12 it’s
    3:12:12 something
    3:12:13 richer
    3:12:15 and
    3:12:16 more
    3:12:16 admirable
    3:12:17 I think
    3:12:17 than this
    3:12:18 narrowed
    3:12:18 down
    3:12:18 version
    3:12:19 and
    3:12:19 I
    3:12:19 hope
    3:12:20 for
    3:12:20 a
    3:12:20 future
    3:12:21 where
    3:12:21 both
    3:12:21 Hong
    3:12:22 Kong
    3:12:22 and
    3:12:23 Beijing
    3:12:24 have
    3:12:25 bookstores
    3:12:26 that
    3:12:26 carry
    3:12:27 1984
    3:12:27 Brave
    3:12:28 New
    3:12:28 World
    3:12:28 and
    3:12:29 all
    3:12:29 of
    3:12:29 your
    3:12:29 books
    3:12:32 and
    3:12:32 I
    3:12:32 can’t
    3:12:33 wait
    3:12:33 to
    3:12:33 visit
    3:12:33 them
    3:12:35 and
    3:12:35 enjoy
    3:12:36 the
    3:12:36 intellectual
    3:12:37 flourishing
    3:12:37 of
    3:12:38 incredible
    3:12:39 people
    3:12:39 what a
    3:12:40 beautiful
    3:12:40 world
    3:12:40 to live
    3:12:41 in
    3:12:41 the
    3:12:41 Chinese
    3:12:42 people
    3:12:42 all the
    3:12:43 people
    3:12:43 I’ve
    3:12:43 met
    3:12:43 it’s
    3:12:43 just
    3:12:44 so
    3:12:45 great
    3:12:46 to
    3:12:47 interact
    3:12:48 with
    3:12:49 totally
    3:12:50 different
    3:12:50 culture
    3:12:50 you
    3:12:50 can
    3:12:51 feel
    3:12:51 the
    3:12:51 roots
    3:12:52 run
    3:12:52 deep
    3:12:53 through
    3:12:53 ancient
    3:12:54 history
    3:12:54 that
    3:12:54 are
    3:12:55 very
    3:12:55 different
    3:12:57 and
    3:12:57 it’s
    3:12:57 amazing
    3:12:58 it’s
    3:12:58 amazing
    3:12:59 that
    3:12:59 earth
    3:12:59 produced
    3:13:01 Chinese
    3:13:01 people
    3:13:03 Indian
    3:13:03 people
    3:13:04 the
    3:13:05 Slavic
    3:13:05 people
    3:13:06 there’s
    3:13:06 just
    3:13:06 all
    3:13:07 kinds
    3:13:07 of
    3:13:07 variants
    3:13:08 and
    3:13:08 we
    3:13:09 all
    3:13:09 have
    3:13:09 our
    3:13:09 own
    3:13:10 weirdnesses
    3:13:11 and quirks
    3:13:11 and so
    3:13:11 on
    3:13:12 everybody
    3:13:12 has
    3:13:13 brilliant
    3:13:13 people
    3:13:14 we
    3:13:14 all
    3:13:14 start
    3:13:15 shit
    3:13:15 with
    3:13:15 each
    3:13:15 other
    3:13:15 every
    3:13:16 once
    3:13:16 in
    3:13:16 a
    3:13:16 while
    3:13:16 but
    3:13:17 I
    3:13:17 hope
    3:13:17 now
    3:13:17 that
    3:13:17 we
    3:13:18 have
    3:13:18 nuclear
    3:13:18 weapons
    3:13:19 and I
    3:13:19 hope
    3:13:20 now
    3:13:20 that
    3:13:20 we
    3:13:20 have
    3:13:21 technology
    3:13:21 that
    3:13:21 connects
    3:13:22 us
    3:13:22 we’ll
    3:13:22 actually
    3:13:25 collaborate
    3:13:26 more
    3:13:27 than we
    3:13:27 fight
    3:13:28 each
    3:13:28 other
    3:13:29 and
    3:13:29 thank
    3:13:29 you
    3:13:29 for
    3:13:30 being
    3:13:30 one
    3:13:30 of
    3:13:30 the
    3:13:30 people
    3:13:30 that
    3:13:31 shows
    3:13:31 off
    3:13:31 the
    3:13:32 beauty
    3:13:32 of
    3:13:32 this
    3:13:32 particular
    3:13:33 peoples
    3:13:34 of
    3:13:35 the
    3:13:35 entire
    3:13:36 region
    3:13:36 really
    3:13:36 of
    3:13:36 Southeast
    3:13:37 Asia
    3:13:38 and it’s
    3:13:39 an honor
    3:13:39 to talk
    3:13:39 to you
    3:13:39 thank you
    3:13:40 so
    3:13:40 much
    3:13:41 thanks
    3:13:41 for
    3:13:41 having
    3:13:41 me
    3:13:41 on
    3:13:43 thanks
    3:13:43 for
    3:13:43 listening
    3:13:43 to
    3:13:44 this
    3:13:44 conversation
    3:13:44 with
    3:13:45 Jeffrey
    3:13:45 Wasserstrom
    3:13:46 to support
    3:13:46 this
    3:13:47 podcast
    3:13:47 please check
    3:13:48 out our
    3:13:48 sponsors
    3:13:48 in the
    3:13:49 description
    3:13:50 and now
    3:13:51 let me
    3:13:51 leave you
    3:13:51 with some
    3:13:52 words
    3:13:52 from
    3:13:53 Confucius
    3:13:54 when
    3:13:55 anger
    3:13:56 rises
    3:13:57 think
    3:13:58 of the
    3:13:59 consequences
    3:14:01 thank you
    3:14:01 for listening
    3:14:02 and hope
    3:14:03 to see
    3:14:03 you
    3:14:04 next
    3:14:04 time
    3:14:11 bye

    Jeffrey Wasserstrom is a historian of modern China.
    Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep466-sc
    See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.

    Transcript:
    https://lexfridman.com/jeffrey-wasserstrom-transcript

    CONTACT LEX:
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    EPISODE LINKS:
    Jeffrey Wasserstrom’s Books:
    China in the 21st Century: https://amzn.to/3GnayXT
    Vigil: Hong Kong on the Brink: https://amzn.to/4jmxWmT
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    SPONSORS:
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    OUTLINE:
    (00:00) – Introduction
    (00:06) – Sponsors, Comments, and Reflections
    (10:29) – Xi Jinping and Mao Zedong
    (13:57) – Confucius
    (21:27) – Education
    (29:33) – Tiananmen Square
    (40:49) – Tank Man
    (50:49) – Censorship
    (1:26:45) – Xi Jinping
    (1:44:53) – Donald Trump
    (1:48:47) – Trade war
    (2:01:35) – Taiwan
    (2:11:48) – Protests in Hong Kong
    (2:44:07) – Mao Zedong
    (3:05:48) – Future of China

    PODCAST LINKS:
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  • #465 – Robert Rodriguez: Sin City, Desperado, El Mariachi, Alita, and Filmmaking

    AI transcript
    0:00:02 The following is a conversation with Robert Rodriguez,
    0:00:09 a legendary filmmaker and creator of Sin City, El Mariachi, Desperado, Spy Kids,
    0:00:14 Machete, From Dusk Till Dawn, Alita, Battle Angel, The Faculty, and many more.
    0:00:21 Robert inspired a generation of independent filmmakers with his first film, El Mariachi,
    0:00:24 that he famously made for just $7,000.
    0:00:29 On that film, and many since, he was not only the director,
    0:00:35 he was also the writer, producer, cinematographer, editor, visual effects supervisor,
    0:00:40 sound designer, composer, basically the full stack of filmmaking.
    0:00:48 He has shown incredible versatility across genres, including action, horror, family films, and sci-fi,
    0:00:53 with some epic collaborations with Quentin Tarantino, James Cameron,
    0:00:56 and many other legendary actors and filmmakers.
    0:01:02 He has often operated at the technological cutting edge, pioneering using HD filmmaking,
    0:01:07 digital backlots, and 3D tech, and always, through all of that,
    0:01:12 he’s been a champion of independent filmmaking, running his own studio here in Austin, Texas,
    0:01:16 which, in many ways, is very far away from Hollywood.
    0:01:21 He’s building a new thing now, called Brass Knuckle Films,
    0:01:26 where he’s opening up the filmmaking process so that fans can be a part of it,
    0:01:29 as he creates his next four action films.
    0:01:34 I’ll probably go hang out at his film studio a bunch, as this is all coming to life.
    0:01:40 His work has inspired a very large number of people, including me,
    0:01:44 to be more creative in whatever pursuit you take on in life,
    0:01:46 and have fun doing it.
    0:01:49 And now, a quick few second-mentions to be sponsored.
    0:01:51 Check them out in the description.
    0:01:53 It’s the best way to support this podcast.
    0:01:56 We’ve got InVideo AI for video generation,
    0:01:58 Brain.fm for focus,
    0:01:59 NetSuite for business,
    0:02:01 Shopify for e-commerce,
    0:02:03 and Element for hydration.
    0:02:05 Choose wisely, my friends.
    0:02:09 I do try to make these ad reads interesting and personal,
    0:02:11 often related to stuff I’m reading or thinking about,
    0:02:13 but if you must skip them,
    0:02:15 please still check out the sponsors,
    0:02:16 sign up,
    0:02:18 buy whatever they’re selling.
    0:02:20 I enjoy their stuff.
    0:02:21 Maybe you will too.
    0:02:24 Also, if you want to get in touch with me for whatever reason,
    0:02:26 go to lexiumin.com slash contact.
    0:02:29 And now, on to the full ad reads.
    0:02:29 Let’s go.
    0:02:33 This episode is brought to you by InVideo AI,
    0:02:37 a video-generating app that allows you to create full-length videos
    0:02:39 using just text prompts.
    0:02:43 Perhaps, obviously, InVideo is the perfect sponsor
    0:02:47 for this conversation with Robert Rodriguez.
    0:02:49 He has been, for decades,
    0:02:52 the guy willing to use cutting-edge technology.
    0:02:56 Digital HD, VR, 3D.
    0:02:58 And now we’re in a time and a space
    0:03:00 where it is not quite used by the big filmmakers
    0:03:02 because they’re not really sure
    0:03:04 how to leverage its power.
    0:03:06 And so I think it’s really the role
    0:03:07 of the independent filmmakers
    0:03:10 to start playing with video generation.
    0:03:13 Start playing five seconds,
    0:03:14 ten seconds at a time,
    0:03:15 seeing what you can do
    0:03:17 in a storytelling art form.
    0:03:19 I do think it’s a skill
    0:03:21 I’ve used in video a lot.
    0:03:22 There’s some aspect of it
    0:03:24 you have to kind of nudge the system
    0:03:25 into that direction.
    0:03:27 I mean, it really is like having two directors.
    0:03:30 And there’s things that humans are really good at,
    0:03:31 and there’s things that AI is really good at,
    0:03:33 and the dance between the two
    0:03:34 is where the art form is.
    0:03:37 Anyway, you can try InVideo AI for free,
    0:03:39 saving you lots of time and money
    0:03:41 you’d otherwise spend on editing,
    0:03:42 animating, and other production costs.
    0:03:45 Go to invideo.io slash lexpod.
    0:03:48 That’s invideo.io slash lexpod.
    0:03:50 This episode is also brought to you
    0:03:52 by brain.fm,
    0:03:53 a platform that offers music
    0:03:56 specifically made for focus.
    0:03:58 I remember thinking that focus,
    0:03:59 or the lack of focus,
    0:04:03 was 100% the consequence
    0:04:05 of your mind and nothing else.
    0:04:08 That you should be able to shut off the world
    0:04:12 and deeply focus on a particular thought,
    0:04:13 or line of thought,
    0:04:14 or on nothingness,
    0:04:14 or on your breath,
    0:04:15 you know,
    0:04:17 like you do in meditation.
    0:04:18 You should be able to do that
    0:04:19 just with the power of your mind.
    0:04:21 And in some sense,
    0:04:23 I still believe that.
    0:04:26 But I think there’s just some things
    0:04:27 that make it easier.
    0:04:30 I first discovered that,
    0:04:31 I don’t know how long ago now,
    0:04:34 but listening to different kinds of noise,
    0:04:35 white noise, brown noise,
    0:04:36 and realizing,
    0:04:38 whoa, something is happening here.
    0:04:42 The mind is just much more naturally,
    0:04:43 much quicker,
    0:04:44 much more efficiently,
    0:04:47 able to achieve that state of focus
    0:04:49 where you shut off the rest of the world.
    0:04:52 And so brain.fm takes it just to another level.
    0:04:54 There’s just so much variety
    0:04:56 for any working environment
    0:04:57 where you want to optimize
    0:05:00 the kind of audio landscape.
    0:05:03 Increase your focus and try brain.fm free
    0:05:04 for 30 days
    0:05:05 by going to brain.fm slash lex.
    0:05:09 That’s brain.fm slash lex for 30 days free.
    0:05:12 This episode is also brought to you by NetSuite,
    0:05:15 an all-in-one cloud business management system.
    0:05:19 Boy, are we really getting to understand
    0:05:22 the inner workings of individual businesses
    0:05:24 and the interaction between those businesses
    0:05:27 within the supply chain domestically
    0:05:29 and internationally now
    0:05:32 with the new evolving trade policy.
    0:05:35 I’ll probably have several conversations
    0:05:37 with the top leadership on this topic soon.
    0:05:40 The economy is both an incredibly resilient
    0:05:41 and a fragile system.
    0:05:45 Whenever you have these centralized,
    0:05:48 big, giant hammer type policies,
    0:05:51 they can have an impact that reverberates
    0:05:54 not just through the direct consequences
    0:05:55 of those policies,
    0:06:00 but just second, third, fourth order effects.
    0:06:04 Plus, they create the psychological effects
    0:06:05 within human minds
    0:06:08 of uncertainty, of fear.
    0:06:10 And based on that,
    0:06:11 they make decisions
    0:06:13 which are often suboptimal for the economy.
    0:06:15 So you get to see
    0:06:16 the inner workings of businesses
    0:06:19 and how they function in response to those,
    0:06:20 almost like an immune system
    0:06:21 within each business
    0:06:23 to see how can we survive,
    0:06:26 how can we turn a profit still.
    0:06:28 And all of that comes into play,
    0:06:29 all the HR,
    0:06:30 all the inventory,
    0:06:31 all of that.
    0:06:32 I’m deeply grateful
    0:06:33 for the wisdom
    0:06:34 and the power of the market.
    0:06:36 We should be careful
    0:06:38 not to mess with it too much.
    0:06:40 Download the CFO’s Guide
    0:06:42 to AI and Machine Learning
    0:06:43 at netsuite.com slash lex.
    0:06:46 That’s netsuite.com slash lex.
    0:06:48 This episode is also brought to you
    0:06:49 by Shopify,
    0:06:50 a platform designed
    0:06:52 for anyone to sell anywhere
    0:06:53 with a great-looking online store.
    0:06:55 Speaking of capitalism,
    0:06:56 I’ve also been reading
    0:06:59 a large amount of literature on China
    0:07:00 to understand
    0:07:01 the culture,
    0:07:02 the peoples,
    0:07:05 the mechanism used by the government.
    0:07:07 All that to help me understand
    0:07:09 and break through
    0:07:10 some of the propaganda
    0:07:11 of the Western perspective.
    0:07:12 Of course,
    0:07:13 there’s truth to it,
    0:07:15 the skepticism
    0:07:15 and the caution
    0:07:16 that the West has.
    0:07:18 But I think there’s a lot
    0:07:20 of interest at play here
    0:07:21 and a lot of warmongers
    0:07:23 that want to wage war
    0:07:24 instead of make peace.
    0:07:27 I do think that the economy
    0:07:29 and economic relationships
    0:07:30 and trading and buying
    0:07:31 and selling,
    0:07:32 all of that
    0:07:35 is a fundamentally peaceful action
    0:07:36 that protects us
    0:07:37 from escalating
    0:07:38 military conflict
    0:07:39 and otherwise.
    0:07:40 I continue to hope
    0:07:41 we’re past all that
    0:07:42 military conflict.
    0:07:43 But anyway,
    0:07:44 the thing I love about America
    0:07:46 is the companies,
    0:07:48 the huge number
    0:07:49 of entrepreneurs
    0:07:50 building stuff,
    0:07:51 creating stuff,
    0:07:51 dreaming,
    0:07:53 buying and selling
    0:07:54 from each other.
    0:07:55 I don’t know.
    0:07:57 That just fills me with hope
    0:07:59 that individuals can dream
    0:08:00 and have the power
    0:08:01 to bring that dream
    0:08:02 to a reality.
    0:08:04 Anyway,
    0:08:06 sign up for a $1 per month
    0:08:07 trial period
    0:08:08 at shopify.com
    0:08:08 slash lex.
    0:08:09 That’s all lowercase.
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    0:08:11 slash lex
    0:08:12 to take your business
    0:08:14 to the next level today.
    0:08:16 This episode was brought to you
    0:08:16 by Element,
    0:08:18 my daily zero sugar
    0:08:19 and delicious electrolyte mix
    0:08:20 that I’m drinking now
    0:08:22 as I’m traveling
    0:08:23 in the middle of nowhere.
    0:08:25 Barely know where I am.
    0:08:26 Barely know who I am.
    0:08:28 Barely know what time it is.
    0:08:30 I’ve been feeling lost
    0:08:31 and out of balance
    0:08:32 for many reasons.
    0:08:34 hoping there will be
    0:08:35 a sign of some sort.
    0:08:37 Some sort of
    0:08:39 little miracle
    0:08:40 that will help me
    0:08:40 find my way.
    0:08:42 This conversation
    0:08:42 with Robert
    0:08:44 was an inspiring one.
    0:08:47 He really did
    0:08:48 everything he’s done
    0:08:50 against all odds.
    0:08:52 Fearless and bold.
    0:08:55 When shit goes wrong,
    0:08:56 he just figures it out.
    0:08:58 There’s something about him.
    0:09:00 Just being around him,
    0:09:01 the energy
    0:09:04 of urgency
    0:09:06 of creative excitement
    0:09:07 to just
    0:09:09 take on the problems
    0:09:09 of the day.
    0:09:11 It’s not like
    0:09:13 excitement to create.
    0:09:14 It’s excitement
    0:09:15 to take on
    0:09:16 the problems
    0:09:17 that will for sure
    0:09:18 come when you try
    0:09:18 to create.
    0:09:19 The different angle
    0:09:21 is a more honest one.
    0:09:23 It’s a more inspiring one.
    0:09:24 More energizing one.
    0:09:26 Yeah.
    0:09:27 Anyway,
    0:09:28 while we’re talking
    0:09:29 about Element,
    0:09:30 watermelon salt,
    0:09:31 get a sample pack
    0:09:32 for free
    0:09:33 with any purchase.
    0:09:34 Try it at
    0:09:35 drinkelement.com
    0:09:36 slash Lex.
    0:09:38 This is the Lex Friedman
    0:09:39 podcast.
    0:09:40 To support it,
    0:09:41 please check out
    0:09:41 our sponsors
    0:09:42 in the description.
    0:09:43 And now,
    0:09:44 dear friends,
    0:09:46 here’s Robert
    0:09:47 Rodriguez.
    0:10:05 has there been
    0:10:07 a time when
    0:10:07 there was like
    0:10:08 one take
    0:10:08 and you only have
    0:10:09 one take
    0:10:09 to get it right?
    0:10:10 Oh,
    0:10:11 all the time
    0:10:11 where you’re just like,
    0:10:12 or just you know
    0:10:13 how long it’ll take
    0:10:14 to reset
    0:10:14 and you’re just,
    0:10:16 but then you know
    0:10:16 what you,
    0:10:17 you got to just
    0:10:18 work with what you got.
    0:10:18 You know,
    0:10:19 you got to work
    0:10:20 with your results.
    0:10:21 You get nervous
    0:10:22 or no in that moment?
    0:10:23 Oh yeah,
    0:10:24 you’re nervous
    0:10:24 going like,
    0:10:26 just I hope it goes off
    0:10:26 because then
    0:10:27 to fix it,
    0:10:28 I’ll have to go do
    0:10:28 a bunch of other steps
    0:10:29 which we don’t have
    0:10:30 time for.
    0:10:31 But a lot of times,
    0:10:31 you know,
    0:10:32 I’ve just learned
    0:10:33 that if something happens,
    0:10:34 it’s just meant
    0:10:34 to be that way.
    0:10:37 And I got used
    0:10:37 to doing things
    0:10:38 in one take
    0:10:39 and just living with it
    0:10:39 didn’t bother me.
    0:10:40 One movie,
    0:10:42 it was even a low budget movie,
    0:10:44 they had rigged a car
    0:10:46 to implode
    0:10:46 because I was going
    0:10:47 to throw a guy at it.
    0:10:47 So we needed a car
    0:10:48 to implode
    0:10:48 and then we’re going
    0:10:49 to throw them
    0:10:50 and marry it together,
    0:10:50 right?
    0:10:54 And the car guy goes,
    0:10:55 yeah,
    0:10:55 we’re going to have
    0:10:56 three cars rigged.
    0:10:57 Three cars?
    0:10:57 Why do you have to
    0:10:58 Well,
    0:10:59 in case one doesn’t work
    0:11:00 and then we have
    0:11:00 a second,
    0:11:01 we have a third one.
    0:11:01 We don’t have all night
    0:11:02 to go shoot
    0:11:03 take after take.
    0:11:03 We’re doing just
    0:11:04 get one car
    0:11:05 and if it doesn’t work,
    0:11:06 we’ll figure it out.
    0:11:07 You don’t have time
    0:11:08 to do it again sometimes.
    0:11:10 It’s such a long setup.
    0:11:11 So I go,
    0:11:11 no,
    0:11:12 I’m good with just going.
    0:11:13 In a grindhouse movie,
    0:11:14 they only had one take,
    0:11:16 so that’ll make it
    0:11:16 more authentic.
    0:11:19 When it all goes to shit,
    0:11:19 when it fails,
    0:11:20 you just,
    0:11:21 what’s the next thought?
    0:11:22 So I’ll tell you,
    0:11:23 two things happened
    0:11:23 on Just Till Done.
    0:11:25 First was,
    0:11:26 okay,
    0:11:26 you know how those
    0:11:27 explosions,
    0:11:28 when somebody walks away
    0:11:29 in slow motion
    0:11:29 from an explosion
    0:11:30 that’s become kind of,
    0:11:31 you know that started
    0:11:32 with Desperado?
    0:11:33 Desperado’s the first.
    0:11:35 If you look at all the montages,
    0:11:35 Desperado’s the first.
    0:11:36 That’s right.
    0:11:37 That is the meme.
    0:11:38 Because it was an accident,
    0:11:39 it was just supposed to be,
    0:11:40 it was just two grenades,
    0:11:41 not a nuclear bomb.
    0:11:42 He throws them over the side
    0:11:42 and I just want to like
    0:11:43 some body parts
    0:11:44 or something to fly up,
    0:11:45 some shrapnel.
    0:11:46 It literally says shrapnel.
    0:11:47 And my effects guy
    0:11:48 was so ragged,
    0:11:49 running so ragged.
    0:11:50 We get to there
    0:11:50 and I go,
    0:11:52 do you have any body parts
    0:11:53 of stuff we can throw up
    0:11:55 or something you can shoot up?
    0:11:56 I didn’t realize it’s so high
    0:11:58 to get past that second floor.
    0:11:58 He’s like,
    0:11:59 no, I don’t.
    0:12:00 I can give you a fireball.
    0:12:01 I can give you a nice,
    0:12:02 you know,
    0:12:03 fireball with propane.
    0:12:05 But it burns away really quick.
    0:12:06 Like, how fast?
    0:12:07 Like that,
    0:12:08 but it’ll be big and orange.
    0:12:09 Okay, we’ll shoot it in slow motion
    0:12:11 so it lasts a little longer
    0:12:12 because it just goes poof.
    0:12:13 So I told the actors,
    0:12:15 I know how big this fireball
    0:12:15 is going to be,
    0:12:17 but just walk really fast
    0:12:18 and just look real determined
    0:12:20 and then just keep walking.
    0:12:21 Don’t stop and turn around
    0:12:21 because you might get
    0:12:23 your eyebrows singed.
    0:12:24 So they take off
    0:12:24 and boom,
    0:12:25 it goes.
    0:12:26 And in slow motion,
    0:12:27 it looks great, right?
    0:12:29 I remember showing to Jim Cameron
    0:12:31 before it came out
    0:12:32 and his hand went up like,
    0:12:33 you’ve never seen that before,
    0:12:33 you know.
    0:12:34 Six months later,
    0:12:35 Dusk Till Dawn came out.
    0:12:38 So I liked how much it looked so much
    0:12:39 that in Dusk Till Dawn,
    0:12:40 I did it again.
    0:12:41 So those movies came out
    0:12:43 within six months of each other.
    0:12:44 That’s why it turned into a thing
    0:12:45 because people saw it.
    0:12:46 And so I thought,
    0:12:47 how about for the opening
    0:12:50 of George Clooney and Quentin
    0:12:53 walking out of the gas station
    0:12:55 that we have the whole place
    0:12:55 just blowing up
    0:12:56 and they just keep talking
    0:12:57 like it’s not happening.
    0:12:59 take it another step further
    0:12:59 so I’m not just doing
    0:13:00 the same thing.
    0:13:01 Okay, that one,
    0:13:02 it’s like,
    0:13:03 okay, you’re going to walk out
    0:13:05 and it’s all in one take.
    0:13:06 So we only can do one take.
    0:13:08 We’re going to blow the thing up.
    0:13:09 We’re going to start
    0:13:10 with just some smaller explosions
    0:13:11 and then when they’re further away
    0:13:12 and it’s safer,
    0:13:13 then we’ll do the big fireballs.
    0:13:15 So we’re going
    0:13:16 and you’re nervous
    0:13:17 because if one of them
    0:13:18 trips up a line
    0:13:19 and the pressure’s on them,
    0:13:21 it’s not just you that’s nervous.
    0:13:21 You’re nervous for them.
    0:13:22 They’re the ones
    0:13:23 who got to walk out,
    0:13:25 do that whole speech,
    0:13:26 get in the car
    0:13:27 and drive away.
    0:13:28 what if the car doesn’t start?
    0:13:28 What do you know?
    0:13:29 There’s a lot of things
    0:13:29 that could happen.
    0:13:31 Well, guess what happens?
    0:13:33 The thing you would not expect,
    0:13:35 they go in,
    0:13:37 they come out,
    0:13:38 they start talking,
    0:13:39 shoot it,
    0:13:40 it’s perfect,
    0:13:40 great,
    0:13:41 we can move on
    0:13:41 and the camera guy goes,
    0:13:43 I don’t know what happened,
    0:13:44 but just like you had
    0:13:45 a little snafu here,
    0:13:45 he goes,
    0:13:48 we have an autofocus
    0:13:49 on the steadicam,
    0:13:50 we have a focus thing,
    0:13:52 it just went like this.
    0:13:55 I felt it go whack all the way
    0:13:55 out of focus
    0:13:57 and whack for a second
    0:13:57 back,
    0:13:59 like it just reset itself.
    0:14:00 I don’t know why it did that,
    0:14:00 you know,
    0:14:01 because it’s radio controlled
    0:14:02 and we can’t tell
    0:14:03 because we’re shooting film,
    0:14:04 you know,
    0:14:04 so we’re like,
    0:14:05 oh shit,
    0:14:06 let’s watch the dailies,
    0:14:06 sure enough,
    0:14:07 let’s see if we can get,
    0:14:09 maybe I can scratch the film
    0:14:09 right there.
    0:14:10 No,
    0:14:11 it goes completely out of focus
    0:14:12 and back in focus
    0:14:13 within a second.
    0:14:14 now we got to reshoot it.
    0:14:16 So we had to wait
    0:14:17 till we’re back
    0:14:18 in that location.
    0:14:19 We rigged it
    0:14:20 for two more takes
    0:14:20 just in case.
    0:14:21 So that thing
    0:14:22 that was supposed to be
    0:14:22 the one take
    0:14:23 is three takes.
    0:14:25 The other thing
    0:14:25 that happened
    0:14:27 was the front
    0:14:29 of the Dust Till Dawn bar.
    0:14:31 That same guy
    0:14:32 that did those explosions,
    0:14:34 he packed a bunch
    0:14:34 of explosives
    0:14:35 behind the actors.
    0:14:36 When the actors
    0:14:37 come running out
    0:14:39 of the bar
    0:14:40 at the end of the movie
    0:14:42 and there’s an explosion
    0:14:42 through the door
    0:14:43 because all the vampires
    0:14:44 are blowing up,
    0:14:45 he didn’t just,
    0:14:47 he put like 10 times
    0:14:47 in that stuff.
    0:14:49 It blew,
    0:14:50 you see it in the movie,
    0:14:51 you see this huge fireball
    0:14:51 going up
    0:14:52 and if you watch closely
    0:14:53 you see it already
    0:14:54 start to catch
    0:14:55 the whole place on fire.
    0:14:56 The whole front of that
    0:14:57 which is foam
    0:14:59 is catching on fire
    0:15:00 and I cut
    0:15:01 just before you see
    0:15:01 that it’s on fire
    0:15:03 and we,
    0:15:05 that was the first shot
    0:15:05 at that bar
    0:15:06 because we weren’t
    0:15:07 going to start shooting
    0:15:07 the other stuff
    0:15:08 till night.
    0:15:10 So the first shot
    0:15:11 is that
    0:15:12 and the set’s ruined.
    0:15:13 burned to a crisp.
    0:15:16 The neon lights
    0:15:17 blew up
    0:15:18 so we couldn’t even shoot.
    0:15:19 Cheech goes,
    0:15:20 well I guess
    0:15:20 I’m not doing
    0:15:21 my speech tonight.
    0:15:23 And,
    0:15:24 but right away
    0:15:24 this is what,
    0:15:25 this is what happens.
    0:15:26 My first AD,
    0:15:27 Doug Arnachowski
    0:15:28 comes over to me
    0:15:30 and I go over to him.
    0:15:31 The guys came out
    0:15:32 with the fire hoses.
    0:15:33 The fire hoses
    0:15:34 weren’t even adding
    0:15:34 any water.
    0:15:34 It was like,
    0:15:36 the thing was just scorching.
    0:15:37 The whole production design team
    0:15:38 was in tears
    0:15:39 because they had just
    0:15:40 spent weeks
    0:15:40 building this thing
    0:15:42 and it was up in smoke
    0:15:42 and charred.
    0:15:44 I said,
    0:15:45 let’s just keep shooting.
    0:15:46 Let’s just keep shooting
    0:15:47 because
    0:15:48 it looks
    0:15:49 really kind of cool
    0:15:49 like this.
    0:15:50 Yeah,
    0:15:50 they’re going to have
    0:15:51 to come repair it
    0:15:52 and we’ll have to come back
    0:15:53 but it’s all black
    0:15:54 and charred.
    0:15:54 That’s why
    0:15:54 that whole scene
    0:15:55 with George Clooney
    0:15:56 and Cheech
    0:15:57 and that the building’s black.
    0:15:58 We didn’t go over there
    0:15:59 and touch that up.
    0:15:59 That’s real flame
    0:16:00 that burned
    0:16:01 and it ended up
    0:16:02 looking great.
    0:16:03 So then the next week
    0:16:04 when we came back
    0:16:05 to shoot that other shot
    0:16:05 that didn’t work
    0:16:06 we came back
    0:16:07 and they had repaired it
    0:16:08 and we shot
    0:16:09 all the night stuff
    0:16:10 which is the majority
    0:16:11 of the stuff
    0:16:12 in front of it.
    0:16:13 So sometimes
    0:16:14 you got to roll with it
    0:16:15 and look at the blessing
    0:16:16 you get
    0:16:17 because of this mistake.
    0:16:18 You probably actually
    0:16:19 got a better take
    0:16:19 by doing it
    0:16:20 later with them
    0:16:21 and then you had
    0:16:22 this incredible look
    0:16:23 for the end of the movie
    0:16:24 that looked apocalyptic.
    0:16:25 If it had looked just clean
    0:16:27 you would have actually seen
    0:16:28 that it was kind of
    0:16:29 a foam set.
    0:16:29 This made it look better.
    0:16:31 So I kind of
    0:16:31 let the universe
    0:16:32 push you
    0:16:33 where you’re supposed to go.
    0:16:33 Just roll with it.
    0:16:34 You got to roll with it
    0:16:35 because you don’t know
    0:16:36 what the grand plan is.
    0:16:37 You have your plan
    0:16:38 just know it’s probably
    0:16:39 all going to fall apart.
    0:16:40 It’s just like the movies.
    0:16:42 You come up with your plan
    0:16:42 of what you want to accomplish.
    0:16:43 That’s like your script.
    0:16:45 Then you go
    0:16:46 scout your location
    0:16:47 and figure out
    0:16:48 what your project’s going to be
    0:16:49 and you go try to make it
    0:16:50 as bulletproof as possible.
    0:16:52 Then you go to do your project
    0:16:53 and just like with our movies
    0:16:54 you watch it all fall apart.
    0:16:55 You watch this thing blow up.
    0:16:56 You watch this thing not work.
    0:16:59 Everything just falls apart
    0:16:59 in front of your face.
    0:17:01 Then that’s when you roll up
    0:17:01 your sleeves
    0:17:03 and creatively figure out
    0:17:04 a way around it.
    0:17:05 You turn chicken shit
    0:17:06 into chicken salad
    0:17:07 and by the end
    0:17:08 you have a result
    0:17:08 that’s better than
    0:17:10 what you sought out.
    0:17:10 But that’s the process
    0:17:11 and that’s life
    0:17:13 and that’s wash, rinse, repeat.
    0:17:13 The rest of your life
    0:17:14 that’s what everything’s
    0:17:15 going to be like.
    0:17:16 It’s just like a movie
    0:17:17 because when you think about it
    0:17:19 you’re writing a story
    0:17:20 for a film
    0:17:22 and you’re also writing
    0:17:23 the story of your life
    0:17:23 at the same time.
    0:17:25 How are you going to react
    0:17:25 to things?
    0:17:26 How do you make your character
    0:17:27 react to things?
    0:17:28 You make him kind of superhuman.
    0:17:29 Why don’t you just
    0:17:30 make yourself that way?
    0:17:31 You’re writing your own story
    0:17:32 and you start really seeing
    0:17:34 the more you get into storytelling
    0:17:36 that life imitates art
    0:17:37 and art limitates life
    0:17:37 but the process
    0:17:38 is also the same.
    0:17:40 So you write the story
    0:17:41 the script
    0:17:42 and then you have it
    0:17:43 collide with the chaos
    0:17:44 of reality
    0:17:45 and in that moment
    0:17:46 when you said
    0:17:47 you see the chicken shit
    0:17:48 like you have to
    0:17:49 be able to keep
    0:17:50 your eyes open
    0:17:51 and notice
    0:17:53 you have to do that.
    0:17:54 Wait a minute.
    0:17:54 Okay.
    0:17:55 Stuff change.
    0:17:55 Discipline.
    0:17:56 Where’s the
    0:17:57 not to be cliche about it
    0:17:58 but where’s the silver lining
    0:17:58 of this?
    0:17:59 Where’s the path
    0:18:00 to actually make something
    0:18:01 good out of this?
    0:18:02 And that’s a skill, right?
    0:18:03 I call it
    0:18:04 and it’s one of my favorite
    0:18:05 stories.
    0:18:06 I was doing one of these talks
    0:18:07 and they said
    0:18:08 come talk about creativity.
    0:18:08 I go
    0:18:09 I understand
    0:18:10 because a lot of people
    0:18:10 read my book
    0:18:11 Rebels Had a Crew
    0:18:11 and told me
    0:18:13 oh it made me be a filmmaker
    0:18:14 but a lot of people said
    0:18:15 it helped me start my own business
    0:18:16 because they just see
    0:18:17 how you can go
    0:18:18 be entrepreneurial like that
    0:18:19 and go where
    0:18:20 no one else is going
    0:18:21 and I’m giving all this talk
    0:18:23 about this kind of positive stuff
    0:18:23 and this one woman goes
    0:18:25 you’re real positive
    0:18:26 but what do I tell myself
    0:18:27 when I just wasted
    0:18:28 a year and a half of my life
    0:18:29 doing something
    0:18:29 that didn’t work?
    0:18:30 And I was like
    0:18:32 that’s a real negative way
    0:18:32 to ask that.
    0:18:33 Can you just rephrase
    0:18:34 the question a little more positively
    0:18:35 before I even attempt
    0:18:36 to answer it
    0:18:37 because already
    0:18:37 her point of view
    0:18:39 is exactly what you’re saying.
    0:18:40 She’s not looking
    0:18:40 at all.
    0:18:41 She’s just concentrating
    0:18:42 on what
    0:18:44 didn’t follow her plan
    0:18:46 and not seeing
    0:18:46 the gift of everything
    0:18:47 else that’s there.
    0:18:48 So she goes
    0:18:50 very reluctant
    0:18:51 it was so perfect
    0:18:52 I wish we had filmed it.
    0:18:52 She goes
    0:18:54 I learned a good lesson
    0:18:55 the hard way
    0:18:56 and I said
    0:18:57 that still sucks.
    0:18:58 And I say
    0:19:00 when you follow your instinct
    0:19:00 like if you follow
    0:19:01 your own instinct
    0:19:02 to go start a business
    0:19:03 or go make this movie
    0:19:03 or whatever
    0:19:04 it wasn’t someone saying
    0:19:05 go over there
    0:19:06 and you’ll make a million dollars
    0:19:06 you know
    0:19:07 it was your instinct
    0:19:08 and you fail.
    0:19:09 Sometimes the only way
    0:19:10 across the river
    0:19:12 is to slip on the first two rocks.
    0:19:13 You fail
    0:19:14 you have to really
    0:19:15 sift through
    0:19:16 it’s like the silver lining
    0:19:17 but I call it
    0:19:18 sift through the ashes
    0:19:19 of your failure
    0:19:20 and you’ll find
    0:19:21 the key to your next success
    0:19:22 is in there
    0:19:23 but if you’re not looking for it
    0:19:23 you don’t find it.
    0:19:24 I’m going to tell you one
    0:19:25 and I tell them
    0:19:26 the four room story.
    0:19:27 I said
    0:19:27 I made a movie
    0:19:28 called Four Rooms.
    0:19:29 I
    0:19:32 didn’t make any money
    0:19:32 right?
    0:19:33 When Quentin asked me
    0:19:33 hey
    0:19:34 do you want to make a movie
    0:19:35 with me
    0:19:36 and two other filmmakers?
    0:19:37 It’s an anthology
    0:19:39 it’s on New Year’s Eve
    0:19:40 it’s in a hotel
    0:19:41 you have to use the bill hop
    0:19:41 we’re not going to know
    0:19:42 what each other’s making
    0:19:43 and we make it
    0:19:44 we put it together.
    0:19:45 My hand went up right away
    0:19:46 just instinctually
    0:19:48 yeah I’ll do that
    0:19:49 I’ll go make that with you.
    0:19:51 Now should I ask the audience
    0:19:53 I like to throw it to the audience
    0:19:54 and her
    0:19:56 should I have not raised my hand
    0:19:56 that quick?
    0:19:57 Shouldn’t I have done
    0:19:58 a little studying first
    0:19:59 or should I just go
    0:20:00 blind instinct
    0:20:01 or should you do
    0:20:03 instinct with some studying?
    0:20:05 Okay well
    0:20:06 I could have gone and studied
    0:20:07 and I would have found
    0:20:08 that anthologies never work
    0:20:10 like even when it’s Coppola
    0:20:11 Scorsese
    0:20:12 Woody Allen
    0:20:12 they bomb
    0:20:13 because people can’t
    0:20:14 quite rip their hand
    0:20:14 what is this
    0:20:15 Twilight Zone?
    0:20:15 I don’t want to go see that
    0:20:17 but that’s not
    0:20:18 I still said yeah
    0:20:19 I think I should still
    0:20:20 go by instinct
    0:20:21 so my instinct was
    0:20:21 to raise my hand
    0:20:22 we’re going to make that movie
    0:20:24 because I love short films
    0:20:26 I made like bedhead
    0:20:27 in short films
    0:20:27 and I thought
    0:20:28 oh here’s a way
    0:20:28 if this works
    0:20:29 I can make short films
    0:20:30 in anthologies
    0:20:31 and I can have the best
    0:20:32 of both worlds
    0:20:33 and by the way
    0:20:34 anthologies is when
    0:20:34 there’s multiple
    0:20:35 more than multiple
    0:20:35 one story
    0:20:36 in one movie
    0:20:37 yeah one movie
    0:20:38 so if you did the research
    0:20:39 you would know that
    0:20:40 very few people
    0:20:41 ever got that to work
    0:20:43 yeah the audience
    0:20:44 can’t quite wrap their end
    0:20:45 and it feels like
    0:20:45 the movie’s starting
    0:20:46 three times
    0:20:46 you know
    0:20:48 so I make that movie
    0:20:50 it bombs
    0:20:52 now I could feel
    0:20:53 real bad about that
    0:20:54 but if you really
    0:20:54 think about it
    0:20:55 you go well
    0:20:57 why did I sign up
    0:20:57 for it?
    0:20:58 Did I raise my hand
    0:20:58 because I thought
    0:20:59 it was going to go be
    0:21:00 this big financial success?
    0:21:01 No I did it
    0:21:02 to work with my friends
    0:21:03 to do something creative
    0:21:04 to try something
    0:21:05 but that’s still
    0:21:05 not good enough
    0:21:06 I need to really
    0:21:07 sift through the ashes
    0:21:07 and if I look
    0:21:08 through the ashes
    0:21:08 of that failure
    0:21:10 I find two keys
    0:21:11 to my biggest successes
    0:21:12 in there
    0:21:14 while I was on the set
    0:21:16 they said it has to be
    0:21:16 New Year’s
    0:21:17 so I thought
    0:21:18 I’m just going to do
    0:21:19 like bedhead
    0:21:19 I’m going to have
    0:21:20 two little kids
    0:21:21 that are running around
    0:21:21 in this room
    0:21:23 and we have to use
    0:21:23 the bellhop
    0:21:24 as a babysitter
    0:21:24 well it’s New Year’s
    0:21:25 let’s dress everybody
    0:21:26 in tuxedos
    0:21:27 because it’s New Year’s
    0:21:28 they’re all going to go out
    0:21:28 but the parents
    0:21:29 leave without them
    0:21:30 when I saw Antonio
    0:21:31 and his wife
    0:21:32 I thought
    0:21:33 wow they look like
    0:21:34 a really cool
    0:21:35 international spy couple
    0:21:37 what if they were spies
    0:21:38 and these two little kids
    0:21:38 one of them
    0:21:39 keeps falling asleep
    0:21:39 on the set
    0:21:40 he’s so young
    0:21:41 they barely tie their shoes
    0:21:42 they don’t know
    0:21:42 parents are spies
    0:21:43 they have to go save them
    0:21:44 okay there’s five
    0:21:45 of those movies now
    0:21:45 right
    0:21:46 the other one
    0:21:47 was
    0:21:49 I really love
    0:21:49 making short films
    0:21:51 I really want
    0:21:52 this anthology thing
    0:21:52 to work
    0:21:53 what if it’s
    0:21:54 three stories
    0:21:54 like a three extra
    0:21:55 not four
    0:21:57 same director
    0:21:58 not four different directors
    0:21:59 I’m going to try it again
    0:22:01 why on earth
    0:22:02 would I try it again
    0:22:03 well because
    0:22:04 I had already done
    0:22:05 one and figured out
    0:22:06 how I could do it better
    0:22:06 and that’s Sin City
    0:22:07 those are by far
    0:22:09 two of my biggest successes
    0:22:10 that came directly
    0:22:11 from that failure
    0:22:12 so I always say
    0:22:13 follow your instinct
    0:22:14 if it doesn’t work
    0:22:15 just go
    0:22:17 sometimes the only way
    0:22:17 across the river
    0:22:19 is to slip on the first two rocks
    0:22:19 so what is
    0:22:20 where’s the key
    0:22:21 in that
    0:22:22 in the ashes of the failure
    0:22:23 because if I had an instinct
    0:22:25 that means I was on the right track
    0:22:26 I didn’t get the result I want
    0:22:27 that’s because the result
    0:22:29 might be something way bigger
    0:22:31 that I don’t have the vision for
    0:22:31 and the universe
    0:22:32 is pushing me that way
    0:22:33 by the way
    0:22:33 a lot of people
    0:22:35 that look back to four rooms
    0:22:37 see a lot of creative genius in there
    0:22:38 so you say it flopped
    0:22:39 it flopped financially
    0:22:39 financially
    0:22:40 but you know
    0:22:42 there’s so many ways
    0:22:43 to measure
    0:22:44 totally
    0:22:45 but like I said
    0:22:46 like I would say
    0:22:47 well it was successful
    0:22:48 because you know
    0:22:49 even Roger Ubert said
    0:22:49 hey you furnished
    0:22:50 my favorite room
    0:22:51 you know
    0:22:51 I was like hey
    0:22:52 I could take that
    0:22:53 but now I think
    0:22:54 there’s something else
    0:22:54 still there
    0:22:55 I keep sifting
    0:22:55 and it’s like
    0:22:56 oh yeah
    0:22:57 two big successes
    0:22:58 came from that
    0:22:59 that’s an amazing lesson
    0:23:00 to have
    0:23:01 because it makes you
    0:23:02 feel better about
    0:23:03 failure
    0:23:03 think of like
    0:23:04 The Thing
    0:23:05 by John Carpenter
    0:23:06 he put that movie
    0:23:07 out the same weekend
    0:23:07 as E.T.
    0:23:08 that thing bombed
    0:23:09 critics were calling it
    0:23:10 pornography
    0:23:10 you know
    0:23:11 because of all the
    0:23:13 all the weird
    0:23:14 special effects
    0:23:14 and audiences
    0:23:15 didn’t go either
    0:23:17 and he thought
    0:23:18 he made a great movie
    0:23:18 so you know
    0:23:19 it makes you question
    0:23:20 your instincts
    0:23:21 well 10 years later
    0:23:22 turns out
    0:23:23 oh it’s a classic
    0:23:24 so sometimes
    0:23:25 it takes the audience
    0:23:25 a while
    0:23:26 so if you
    0:23:28 have some kind
    0:23:28 of failure
    0:23:29 on something
    0:23:29 you
    0:23:30 don’t let it
    0:23:30 knock you down
    0:23:31 just go
    0:23:32 maybe in 10 years
    0:23:33 they’ll think it’s great
    0:23:34 I’m just gonna commit
    0:23:35 to making a body
    0:23:36 of work
    0:23:37 a body of work
    0:23:39 some will succeed
    0:23:40 some will overperform
    0:23:41 some will underperform
    0:23:42 it’s not your job
    0:23:43 you just want to be
    0:23:44 a creative person
    0:23:45 just create
    0:23:46 I tell me
    0:23:46 just create
    0:23:48 stop thinking about
    0:23:48 movie per movie
    0:23:49 and worrying so much
    0:23:50 about each one
    0:23:52 or project to project
    0:23:52 if you’re a business person
    0:23:53 just commit
    0:23:54 to making a body
    0:23:55 of work
    0:23:55 like an artist
    0:23:56 would do
    0:23:57 and you don’t
    0:23:57 you don’t know
    0:23:58 what the masterpieces
    0:23:59 are gonna be
    0:23:59 or which
    0:24:00 you know
    0:24:00 someone’s gonna come
    0:24:01 and say
    0:24:01 oh that one
    0:24:02 that bombed
    0:24:03 there is some
    0:24:04 really creative
    0:24:04 stuff in there
    0:24:05 and it’s not
    0:24:06 for you to decide
    0:24:07 you just go
    0:24:07 and do it
    0:24:08 sometimes I think
    0:24:10 it takes some time
    0:24:10 to process
    0:24:11 the failure
    0:24:12 to make sense
    0:24:12 of it
    0:24:12 like
    0:24:14 at least for me
    0:24:15 don’t rush
    0:24:16 making sense
    0:24:17 of what
    0:24:17 didn’t work
    0:24:19 what lessons
    0:24:19 do I
    0:24:21 take from it
    0:24:22 how do I
    0:24:22 sift through the ashes
    0:24:23 as you said
    0:24:24 yeah
    0:24:25 like it takes time
    0:24:25 you have to sleep
    0:24:26 on it
    0:24:27 sometimes it’s right there
    0:24:28 and then sometimes
    0:24:29 you come back
    0:24:30 revisit it
    0:24:31 you know later
    0:24:32 because you might not
    0:24:33 have had some information
    0:24:34 you have now
    0:24:34 that makes you look
    0:24:35 at it a lot differently
    0:24:37 like when I did
    0:24:38 I just did the audio book
    0:24:40 for Rebel Without a Crew
    0:24:41 yeah thank you for that
    0:24:41 by the way
    0:24:42 I hadn’t read it
    0:24:43 since I wrote it
    0:24:44 so I didn’t remember
    0:24:45 a lot of the details
    0:24:46 and you actually
    0:24:47 it’s voiced by you
    0:24:48 I voiced it
    0:24:49 so I was reading it
    0:24:49 real time
    0:24:50 yeah I highly
    0:24:51 recommend people
    0:24:51 because you comment
    0:24:52 you add additional
    0:24:53 comments to it
    0:24:54 it’s great
    0:24:54 most of the time
    0:24:55 I’m laughing
    0:24:56 I can’t believe
    0:24:57 how crazy that story
    0:24:58 is I forgot a lot
    0:24:58 of details
    0:24:59 and when you’re younger
    0:25:00 you know when you’re
    0:25:00 21 22
    0:25:02 six months feels
    0:25:02 like six years
    0:25:03 I didn’t realize
    0:25:04 how short that window
    0:25:05 was until I reread it
    0:25:07 and how impossible
    0:25:07 most that is
    0:25:08 but you see some places
    0:25:10 where a setup
    0:25:11 falls in my lap
    0:25:12 and then pays off
    0:25:13 immediately in a big way
    0:25:13 like magic
    0:25:14 over and over again
    0:25:15 it’s clear
    0:25:15 I don’t know
    0:25:16 what I’m doing
    0:25:17 it’s clear the universe
    0:25:18 is just pushing you places
    0:25:20 so you can’t fight it
    0:25:20 because I remember
    0:25:22 I was really disappointed
    0:25:23 and it says in the diary
    0:25:24 I’m really bummed
    0:25:25 that I go home
    0:25:25 that Christmas
    0:25:26 not having sold it
    0:25:28 to the Spanish home
    0:25:28 video market
    0:25:29 which was my goal
    0:25:30 I walked home
    0:25:31 penniless
    0:25:32 and I was like
    0:25:33 Merry Christmas
    0:25:35 I feel like a freaking failure
    0:25:37 good thing I didn’t sell it
    0:25:37 then
    0:25:38 you know
    0:25:39 with time
    0:25:39 you look back
    0:25:40 and you go
    0:25:40 wow
    0:25:41 I got an agent
    0:25:42 the next month
    0:25:43 he wasn’t even
    0:25:43 going to help me sell it
    0:25:44 he said
    0:25:44 if you can get
    0:25:45 $20,000 for it
    0:25:45 take it
    0:25:47 I chased those people down
    0:25:48 for those contracts
    0:25:50 the Spanish market
    0:25:51 for months
    0:25:53 and they never answered me back
    0:25:55 and then Columbia
    0:25:55 ended up buying it
    0:25:56 for like 10 times as much
    0:25:57 and we made it
    0:25:58 we released it
    0:26:00 and did a sequel
    0:26:01 and did another sequel
    0:26:03 if you look back in time
    0:26:05 good thing I didn’t get my way
    0:26:07 my way had this for a vision
    0:26:09 and it needed to do that
    0:26:11 which you would never know
    0:26:11 you know
    0:26:12 you don’t know that going through
    0:26:12 so just
    0:26:14 if you don’t have the answer
    0:26:14 right away
    0:26:15 or even in 10 years
    0:26:16 go
    0:26:17 maybe it’s coming in 20 years
    0:26:18 don’t let anything slow you down
    0:26:20 just keep plowing forward
    0:26:21 committing to making
    0:26:22 your thing happen
    0:26:24 don’t get shook up
    0:26:26 by something that you might not
    0:26:27 have an answer for
    0:26:27 yeah
    0:26:28 every aspect of your journey
    0:26:29 is super inspiring
    0:26:30 we’ll talk about it
    0:26:31 let’s go to the beginning
    0:26:32 because there’s a few technical things
    0:26:33 that are fascinating
    0:26:34 about your beginning
    0:26:36 so you started making films
    0:26:37 when you were very young
    0:26:38 yeah
    0:26:39 with an old Super 8 camera
    0:26:41 and you were editing on a VCR
    0:26:42 you see
    0:26:43 I’ve met a lot of filmmakers
    0:26:44 who you know
    0:26:45 they start a certain way
    0:26:47 but then they finish another way
    0:26:48 they get to be big filmmakers
    0:26:48 and all that
    0:26:50 I still do it that way
    0:26:51 like I still
    0:26:53 I like doing things that way
    0:26:54 I have a new company
    0:26:55 called Brass Knuckle Films
    0:26:56 where the audience
    0:26:57 can actually participate
    0:26:58 by investing
    0:26:59 in this movie
    0:27:00 being investors in these movies
    0:27:01 that are done the same way
    0:27:02 they’re action films
    0:27:03 like we did with Mariachi
    0:27:05 but 10 to 30 million
    0:27:06 it doesn’t take a lot of money
    0:27:08 to start a billion dollar franchise
    0:27:09 you know like
    0:27:10 John Wick only cost 20 million
    0:27:11 the first one
    0:27:13 second one was 40
    0:27:13 third one was 80
    0:27:15 fourth one was 100
    0:27:16 because the audience
    0:27:17 kept growing and growing
    0:27:17 by the way
    0:27:18 you say
    0:27:19 you know
    0:27:19 20 million
    0:27:20 like it’s not a lot of money
    0:27:21 we should mention
    0:27:22 it’s not for an action film
    0:27:22 yeah
    0:27:22 that’s right
    0:27:23 but also
    0:27:24 we should say
    0:27:25 that El Mariachi
    0:27:26 the film
    0:27:27 on which the book
    0:27:29 Rebel Without a Crew
    0:27:30 is $7,000 movie
    0:27:31 so let’s put it all
    0:27:32 in context
    0:27:32 but you know
    0:27:34 you’re gonna hire bigger actors
    0:27:35 you can get a big actor
    0:27:36 like Tiana Reeves
    0:27:37 for a $20 million movie
    0:27:37 you know
    0:27:38 I asked Jim
    0:27:39 I said
    0:27:39 Jim Cameron
    0:27:40 I said
    0:27:40 you know like
    0:27:42 Terminator costs $5 million
    0:27:42 and he goes
    0:27:43 I wish we had that much
    0:27:45 he had less than $5 million
    0:27:45 for that
    0:27:46 so you can start
    0:27:47 a billion dollar franchise
    0:27:49 using these methods
    0:27:51 and with the audience
    0:27:52 investing
    0:27:52 they get to make
    0:27:53 money on them
    0:27:55 and that’s what I’m gonna say now
    0:27:56 about how I started
    0:27:57 you see that DNA
    0:27:59 of how I give out
    0:27:59 you know
    0:28:00 I want people to know
    0:28:01 how I did things
    0:28:02 with Rebel Without a Crew
    0:28:03 or with these methods
    0:28:04 that I started with
    0:28:05 you see that’s how
    0:28:06 we kept going
    0:28:07 Hollywood spends way too much
    0:28:08 and when you can make
    0:28:09 stuff for less
    0:28:10 your profit margin
    0:28:11 is much better
    0:28:13 so when I first started
    0:28:14 I didn’t have any money
    0:28:15 so I still play
    0:28:16 like I don’t have money
    0:28:18 so I had Super 8
    0:28:19 my dad had a Super 8 camera
    0:28:20 but I couldn’t afford it
    0:28:22 I shot two roles
    0:28:23 that you had to get
    0:28:25 you had to buy the film
    0:28:27 shoot two minutes
    0:28:28 I shot two roles of that
    0:28:29 it’s another
    0:28:30 same amount of money
    0:28:31 that it cost to buy it
    0:28:32 whatever that was
    0:28:32 12 bucks or whatever
    0:28:34 to develop it
    0:28:34 you get it
    0:28:35 there’s no sound
    0:28:37 most of the shit’s
    0:28:38 out of focus
    0:28:38 you know
    0:28:39 but then my dad
    0:28:40 who sold cookware
    0:28:41 had a VCR
    0:28:43 one of the first VCRs
    0:28:44 home VCRs for the market
    0:28:45 that he would play
    0:28:46 his sales tapes
    0:28:46 to his salesman
    0:28:48 and it came with
    0:28:49 a camera attached
    0:28:50 like this cable
    0:28:51 you got coming out
    0:28:51 imagine if that
    0:28:53 had to go into your VCR
    0:28:54 for you to even
    0:28:55 see what it’s shooting
    0:28:57 this is old camera
    0:28:58 manual focus
    0:28:59 manual iris
    0:29:00 and 12 foot cable
    0:29:01 and I would start
    0:29:02 making movies with that
    0:29:03 instead now I have
    0:29:03 for $8
    0:29:05 I have a two hour
    0:29:06 erasable tape
    0:29:07 of sound and picture
    0:29:09 so I got into digital
    0:29:10 basically really early
    0:29:11 I was doing
    0:29:13 which was really frowned
    0:29:14 upon back then
    0:29:16 and continued to be
    0:29:16 all the way to
    0:29:17 when I was using it
    0:29:17 for real
    0:29:19 in the early 2000s
    0:29:20 before everyone realized
    0:29:21 oh that’s the future
    0:29:22 yeah that’s fascinating
    0:29:22 because you were
    0:29:23 rebel in that way
    0:29:24 too using digital
    0:29:25 yeah well because
    0:29:26 of the means
    0:29:27 and the democratizing
    0:29:28 of that
    0:29:30 the elite didn’t like
    0:29:30 that you could just
    0:29:31 go make a movie
    0:29:32 like that
    0:29:34 but I started practicing
    0:29:35 and it’s much easier
    0:29:36 to practice
    0:29:36 when it doesn’t
    0:29:37 cost any money
    0:29:38 like if you want
    0:29:39 to be a rock star
    0:29:40 right if you want
    0:29:40 to learn how to play
    0:29:41 guitar really well
    0:29:41 you’re not going
    0:29:42 to just jump on stage
    0:29:43 and suddenly be able
    0:29:43 to play you have
    0:29:44 to practice
    0:29:45 till your fingers
    0:29:45 bleed
    0:29:46 well the same
    0:29:46 with movies
    0:29:47 you got to keep
    0:29:47 telling stories
    0:29:48 and cut them
    0:29:48 together
    0:29:49 and you just
    0:29:49 can’t afford
    0:29:49 that on film
    0:29:50 nobody can
    0:29:51 with a two minute
    0:29:51 roll
    0:29:52 costing as much
    0:29:53 as a two hour
    0:29:53 tape
    0:29:54 so I was
    0:29:55 moving all these
    0:29:55 doing all these
    0:29:56 movies
    0:29:56 first I would
    0:29:57 cut in camera
    0:29:58 and that VCR
    0:29:59 that old VCR
    0:30:00 had a really great
    0:30:00 pause button
    0:30:01 that they stopped
    0:30:01 making
    0:30:02 that when you
    0:30:03 hit pause
    0:30:03 it stopped
    0:30:04 right there
    0:30:05 and it stopped
    0:30:05 with a clean cut
    0:30:06 it didn’t have
    0:30:06 all this
    0:30:08 color bars
    0:30:08 like the later
    0:30:09 ones had
    0:30:10 so I
    0:30:10 that was my
    0:30:11 and it had
    0:30:11 an audio
    0:30:12 dub feature
    0:30:13 where you could
    0:30:14 add another
    0:30:15 second soundtrack
    0:30:15 to it
    0:30:16 so if I
    0:30:16 have people
    0:30:17 talking
    0:30:17 I could hit
    0:30:18 audio dub
    0:30:19 and add sound
    0:30:19 effects
    0:30:20 so I could
    0:30:21 have two tracks
    0:30:21 on the same
    0:30:21 one
    0:30:22 so I
    0:30:23 that was my
    0:30:23 filmmaking
    0:30:25 kit for a while
    0:30:26 until I needed
    0:30:27 to start doing
    0:30:27 real editing
    0:30:29 and my dad
    0:30:30 bought a second
    0:30:31 VCR for his
    0:30:31 business
    0:30:32 because I stole
    0:30:33 his other one
    0:30:34 and I found
    0:30:34 that if I
    0:30:34 hooked them
    0:30:35 together
    0:30:36 I could play
    0:30:36 on one
    0:30:38 and use that
    0:30:38 pause button
    0:30:39 on the second
    0:30:40 and this was
    0:30:41 the limitation
    0:30:41 this is what
    0:30:42 taught me
    0:30:42 how to edit
    0:30:43 in my head
    0:30:44 is that
    0:30:45 if I shot
    0:30:45 a bunch
    0:30:45 of footage
    0:30:46 I needed
    0:30:47 to shoot
    0:30:47 very little
    0:30:47 footage
    0:30:48 so I could
    0:30:48 find it
    0:30:49 sometimes you
    0:30:49 shoot out
    0:30:50 of order
    0:30:50 so when I
    0:30:51 cut it
    0:30:51 I have to
    0:30:51 cut in
    0:30:52 linear order
    0:30:53 because if you
    0:30:54 push pause
    0:30:54 it’s a nice
    0:30:55 clean cut
    0:30:55 but only
    0:30:56 it only holds
    0:30:56 for five minutes
    0:30:57 you have five
    0:30:58 minutes before
    0:30:58 the machine
    0:30:59 shuts off
    0:31:00 so you got
    0:31:00 to find your
    0:31:01 next shot
    0:31:01 within five
    0:31:01 minutes
    0:31:03 and do that
    0:31:03 otherwise
    0:31:03 if you have
    0:31:04 to start
    0:31:04 the machine
    0:31:05 over
    0:31:05 it added
    0:31:06 all these
    0:31:06 color bars
    0:31:07 and it would
    0:31:07 be all
    0:31:08 screwed up
    0:31:09 so I’d
    0:31:09 have to sit
    0:31:09 there and
    0:31:10 not move
    0:31:11 for like
    0:31:11 all day
    0:31:12 while I
    0:31:12 cut
    0:31:13 knowing
    0:31:13 what the
    0:31:14 next shot
    0:31:14 was
    0:31:15 and once
    0:31:15 I had
    0:31:16 it cut
    0:31:17 I would
    0:31:18 then add
    0:31:19 some sound
    0:31:19 effects to it
    0:31:20 remember
    0:31:20 because I have
    0:31:20 the audio
    0:31:21 dub function
    0:31:21 but now
    0:31:22 if I want
    0:31:22 to add
    0:31:23 music
    0:31:23 I take
    0:31:24 that tape
    0:31:24 which has
    0:31:25 two tracks
    0:31:25 now
    0:31:25 into the
    0:31:26 first deck
    0:31:28 and put
    0:31:28 it into
    0:31:29 the VCR
    0:31:29 again
    0:31:30 one generation
    0:31:30 of loss
    0:31:31 but I have
    0:31:31 a little
    0:31:32 cassette tape
    0:31:32 player
    0:31:33 with the
    0:31:33 music
    0:31:34 and I do
    0:31:34 a Y
    0:31:35 splitter
    0:31:36 so I can
    0:31:36 add the
    0:31:36 music
    0:31:39 that’s
    0:31:39 like being
    0:31:40 resourceful
    0:31:41 with what
    0:31:41 you have
    0:31:43 and I
    0:31:43 made a
    0:31:44 award winning
    0:31:44 short films
    0:31:44 that way
    0:31:45 on video
    0:31:45 there were
    0:31:46 some festivals
    0:31:47 that would
    0:31:47 allow video
    0:31:48 not many
    0:31:49 but they
    0:31:49 would always
    0:31:49 win
    0:31:50 and they
    0:31:50 were always
    0:31:51 funny
    0:31:52 as I
    0:31:53 stumbled
    0:31:53 upon
    0:31:54 spy kids
    0:31:55 that way
    0:31:55 like I
    0:31:56 wanted to
    0:31:56 make these
    0:31:57 action movies
    0:31:57 in my
    0:31:57 backyard
    0:31:58 but when
    0:31:58 you’re a
    0:31:59 teenager
    0:31:59 you don’t
    0:32:00 know anybody
    0:32:00 who can
    0:32:00 come be
    0:32:01 your action
    0:32:01 star
    0:32:02 and if
    0:32:02 you just
    0:32:02 bring your
    0:32:03 high school
    0:32:03 buddies
    0:32:03 well they
    0:32:04 just look
    0:32:04 like high
    0:32:05 school kids
    0:32:06 so I
    0:32:06 used my
    0:32:06 little
    0:32:07 brothers
    0:32:07 and sisters
    0:32:07 because I’m
    0:32:08 one of
    0:32:08 ten
    0:32:09 they’re
    0:32:11 just sitting
    0:32:11 around watching
    0:32:12 cartoons anyway
    0:32:12 and I
    0:32:12 made them
    0:32:13 the action
    0:32:14 stars just
    0:32:14 to like
    0:32:15 learn
    0:32:15 and I
    0:32:16 found those
    0:32:16 things would
    0:32:17 be a winning
    0:32:17 formula
    0:32:18 they’d win
    0:32:18 every festival
    0:32:19 I’d send
    0:32:19 them to
    0:32:21 so bedhead
    0:32:22 was my
    0:32:22 first time
    0:32:22 using a
    0:32:23 film camera
    0:32:24 it was a
    0:32:24 wind up
    0:32:25 film camera
    0:32:25 I got in
    0:32:26 film school
    0:32:26 I went to
    0:32:26 film school
    0:32:27 for one
    0:32:27 semester
    0:32:28 and realized
    0:32:29 I already
    0:32:30 knew more
    0:32:30 than the
    0:32:31 film students
    0:32:31 because they
    0:32:32 taught you a
    0:32:32 whole other
    0:32:33 outdated way
    0:32:34 of doing it
    0:32:34 so I thought
    0:32:35 I’m just
    0:32:35 going to use
    0:32:35 that film
    0:32:36 camera to
    0:32:37 make a
    0:32:38 low budget
    0:32:39 movie
    0:32:40 a definitive
    0:32:41 film version
    0:32:41 that I can
    0:32:42 send to all
    0:32:42 film festivals
    0:32:43 of these
    0:32:44 action kids
    0:32:44 which is a
    0:32:45 precursor to
    0:32:45 spy kids
    0:32:46 bedhead’s a
    0:32:47 precursor to
    0:32:47 spy kids
    0:32:48 and we should
    0:32:48 say that
    0:32:48 bedhead was an
    0:32:49 award winning
    0:32:50 short film
    0:32:51 that was probably
    0:32:52 a big sort of
    0:32:53 leap for you
    0:32:54 that probably
    0:32:54 opened the door
    0:32:55 to you to
    0:32:55 then make
    0:32:56 tell me
    0:32:57 your brain
    0:32:58 especially
    0:32:59 because those
    0:33:00 video festivals
    0:33:01 I would win
    0:33:01 like a trip
    0:33:02 to New York
    0:33:03 and a director’s
    0:33:03 chair with a
    0:33:04 video shorts
    0:33:04 that I would
    0:33:05 put in festivals
    0:33:06 but I knew
    0:33:07 the film festival
    0:33:07 if I could get
    0:33:08 into film festivals
    0:33:08 I could send
    0:33:09 that all over
    0:33:09 the world
    0:33:10 so I made
    0:33:11 that little
    0:33:11 short film
    0:33:13 sent it
    0:33:13 and was winning
    0:33:14 all the festivals
    0:33:14 and I thought
    0:33:15 wow I made
    0:33:15 that with a
    0:33:16 wind up
    0:33:17 camera
    0:33:18 film camera
    0:33:19 filming
    0:33:20 just one
    0:33:21 take
    0:33:22 each shot
    0:33:24 just
    0:33:25 no slates
    0:33:25 because I’m
    0:33:26 the editor
    0:33:27 and that
    0:33:28 cost 800 bucks
    0:33:30 and it was
    0:33:30 eight minutes
    0:33:32 I bet I can
    0:33:32 make
    0:33:34 an 80 minute
    0:33:34 movie
    0:33:35 for $8,000
    0:33:36 if I’d use
    0:33:36 the same method
    0:33:37 so that movie
    0:33:38 I did
    0:33:39 six months
    0:33:40 later I was
    0:33:40 making mariachi
    0:33:41 because it
    0:33:41 opened up my
    0:33:42 mind that I
    0:33:42 could try it
    0:33:43 in a feature
    0:33:44 can we actually
    0:33:44 pause on that
    0:33:45 because I think
    0:33:46 bedhead has a
    0:33:47 really great
    0:33:48 really unique
    0:33:48 story
    0:33:49 shot in a
    0:33:49 really unique
    0:33:50 way
    0:33:50 I think what
    0:33:51 I’m trying
    0:33:51 to say is
    0:33:52 it’s very
    0:33:52 important to
    0:33:54 write the
    0:33:55 right script
    0:33:57 write the
    0:33:58 right story
    0:33:58 let me tell
    0:33:59 you the trick
    0:33:59 to that
    0:34:00 and mariachi
    0:34:00 is the same
    0:34:01 way
    0:34:03 this really
    0:34:03 helped people
    0:34:04 even Kevin
    0:34:05 Smith from
    0:34:05 Clerks said
    0:34:06 wow Robert
    0:34:07 said when
    0:34:08 mariachi was
    0:34:09 success I
    0:34:09 talked about
    0:34:09 how I did
    0:34:10 it I said
    0:34:11 I looked at
    0:34:11 everything I
    0:34:13 had what do
    0:34:13 I have we
    0:34:14 have a pit bull
    0:34:15 we have a
    0:34:16 turtle we’ve
    0:34:16 got a bus
    0:34:17 that Carlos
    0:34:18 his cousin
    0:34:18 owns his
    0:34:19 cousin is a
    0:34:20 brother as a
    0:34:20 brother-in-law
    0:34:21 has a bar
    0:34:22 and he
    0:34:22 owns a ranch
    0:34:23 so the bad
    0:34:24 guy lives at
    0:34:24 the ranch
    0:34:25 the fight scene
    0:34:26 is going to
    0:34:26 be in the
    0:34:27 bar he’s
    0:34:27 going to hit
    0:34:27 a bus at
    0:34:28 one point
    0:34:29 he’s going to
    0:34:29 the girl’s going
    0:34:30 to have a dog
    0:34:31 and a turtle’s
    0:34:31 going to cross
    0:34:32 the road
    0:34:32 it gives you all
    0:34:33 this production
    0:34:33 value so you
    0:34:34 write backwards
    0:34:36 so for bedhead
    0:34:37 I even did that
    0:34:37 with a camera
    0:34:38 so I’ve been
    0:34:38 shooting video
    0:34:39 all this time
    0:34:39 and one thing
    0:34:40 I wished I
    0:34:40 could do on
    0:34:41 video I never
    0:34:41 could was slow
    0:34:43 motion or stop
    0:34:44 motion even so
    0:34:45 when I got that
    0:34:46 crappy world war
    0:34:46 two camera they
    0:34:48 gave us in film
    0:34:48 school I mean
    0:34:49 I was so pissed
    0:34:50 like this is the
    0:34:50 camera I’ve been
    0:34:51 trying to get my
    0:34:51 hands I could have
    0:34:52 bought this for 50
    0:34:53 bucks at a bond
    0:34:54 shop old Bill
    0:34:55 and how wind up
    0:34:55 you couldn’t even
    0:34:56 see through the
    0:34:57 lens you were
    0:34:58 seeing through an
    0:34:59 approximation of the
    0:35:01 lens but you
    0:35:01 could shoot slow
    0:35:03 motion I could do
    0:35:04 reverse photography
    0:35:05 if I filmed
    0:35:06 upside down I
    0:35:07 could do because
    0:35:08 if I do a fast
    0:35:09 push into her I’ll
    0:35:10 never get the
    0:35:11 focus in right so
    0:35:12 I started with it
    0:35:13 in focus went
    0:35:14 back pulled
    0:35:15 backwards on a
    0:35:17 chair and then
    0:35:17 reversed it
    0:35:18 flipped it and
    0:35:19 now it looks like
    0:35:20 it stops on a
    0:35:21 diamond focus
    0:35:21 the number of
    0:35:22 times I’ve seen
    0:35:22 you shoot
    0:35:23 backwards is
    0:35:24 incredible like to
    0:35:25 achieve a certain
    0:35:26 feeling a certain
    0:35:27 experience a certain
    0:35:30 effect sometimes
    0:35:31 shooting in reverse
    0:35:33 plus the sound
    0:35:35 effect layer you
    0:35:37 can create this
    0:35:38 reality that’s
    0:35:39 surreal that then
    0:35:40 results in the
    0:35:41 story that you
    0:35:42 wanted like you
    0:35:43 have to be
    0:35:44 functioning some
    0:35:45 kind of different
    0:35:45 space-time
    0:35:46 continuums
    0:35:48 start putting it
    0:35:49 together right so
    0:35:50 I’ve got this
    0:35:50 different camera
    0:35:51 well what now I
    0:35:52 go like I don’t
    0:35:53 want to shoot the
    0:35:54 same kind of movie
    0:35:54 if I got a camera
    0:35:55 now that can do
    0:35:56 that I can do
    0:35:56 stop motion so
    0:35:57 that’s why there’s
    0:35:58 an animated title
    0:35:59 sequence at the
    0:35:59 beginning because I
    0:36:00 go wow I’m a
    0:36:02 cartoonist if I set
    0:36:03 the camera up here
    0:36:04 I can slow it down
    0:36:06 enough it’s not it’s
    0:36:06 not a frame by
    0:36:07 frame but if I get
    0:36:08 it down like two
    0:36:09 frames a second I
    0:36:11 can just tap it and
    0:36:12 it’ll maybe get one
    0:36:13 frame off so I did
    0:36:14 300 drawings by
    0:36:15 hand for that
    0:36:16 opening title
    0:36:17 sequence holy
    0:36:18 shit that was that
    0:36:19 was you doing it
    0:36:20 by hand yeah so
    0:36:21 you watch that and
    0:36:22 this is a throwaway
    0:36:24 title sequence but I
    0:36:25 really want this thing
    0:36:26 to win awards okay
    0:36:27 hold on a second
    0:36:27 how long does that
    0:36:28 take to draw that
    0:36:29 that’s a lot that’s
    0:36:30 a lot of work I
    0:36:32 drew it I drew it
    0:36:33 over well I was a
    0:36:34 daily cartoonist by
    0:36:34 then so I was pretty
    0:36:35 fast but still it’s
    0:36:36 that’s why it’s only
    0:36:37 penciled it’s not
    0:36:37 inked but it looks
    0:36:38 great I mean it’s
    0:36:39 the cameras going
    0:36:40 around and all kinds
    0:36:41 of crazy stuff but
    0:36:43 it’s just all fake
    0:36:44 by paper it took
    0:36:45 me all night to
    0:36:46 shoot it because I
    0:36:46 remember I walked
    0:36:47 into the film school
    0:36:50 the next day you
    0:36:50 know like all
    0:36:51 sleeping I told one
    0:36:51 of the fellow
    0:36:52 students you know
    0:36:53 wow I was up all
    0:36:54 night doing this
    0:36:54 animated title
    0:36:55 sequence and he
    0:36:56 went why are you
    0:36:56 putting so much
    0:36:57 work in this they’re
    0:36:57 not gonna they’re
    0:36:58 not gonna grade you
    0:36:59 any differently and
    0:37:01 I was like grades get
    0:37:02 an A walking in
    0:37:03 here I’m trying to
    0:37:04 get out of this town
    0:37:05 I’m not doing this
    0:37:07 for fucking grades I
    0:37:07 got I want people to
    0:37:08 see what I can do
    0:37:10 now and I want to
    0:37:11 see what I can do
    0:37:12 now with this so a
    0:37:14 lot of the story came
    0:37:15 from the limitations
    0:37:16 or actually the
    0:37:16 freedoms of that
    0:37:17 camera I couldn’t
    0:37:18 have done that story
    0:37:20 on video so when I
    0:37:21 saw wow okay I can
    0:37:22 do reverse photography
    0:37:23 I can do stop
    0:37:25 motion she has to
    0:37:26 have special powers
    0:37:27 because if she has
    0:37:28 special powers and I
    0:37:29 can utilize I can
    0:37:30 really milk this
    0:37:31 camera for all it
    0:37:31 can get there’s one
    0:37:32 of my shots I love
    0:37:33 the most is where
    0:37:35 she’s standing there
    0:37:36 and the and the
    0:37:39 chair she makes a
    0:37:40 chair come all the
    0:37:41 way up to her and it
    0:37:41 goes all the way up
    0:37:43 to her face now if I
    0:37:44 do that normally where
    0:37:45 would I even put the
    0:37:47 strings for that right
    0:37:49 to pull the chair so I
    0:37:50 start here with the
    0:37:51 camera upside down I
    0:37:52 have the strings in the
    0:37:52 back you’re not going
    0:37:53 to be looking at the
    0:37:54 back and as it goes
    0:37:56 back you pull it back
    0:37:57 and then when you
    0:37:59 reverse it it goes and
    0:38:00 it looks so good you
    0:38:01 can’t spot this if you
    0:38:02 look close you see the
    0:38:02 strings are in the
    0:38:03 back but your eyes
    0:38:05 so I did stuff like
    0:38:06 that and then just
    0:38:07 her like getting the
    0:38:08 hose and then I just
    0:38:09 do stop motion for the
    0:38:10 hose turning on you
    0:38:11 know the faucet that’s
    0:38:12 why I gave her special
    0:38:13 powers so that and it
    0:38:14 made the story better so
    0:38:16 sometimes the limitations
    0:38:17 you have with equipment
    0:38:19 or location you can use
    0:38:20 it to make you know
    0:38:21 take chicken shit turn
    0:38:23 in chicken salad take
    0:38:23 this camera that
    0:38:24 everyone was like what’s
    0:38:26 this and I go I can do
    0:38:29 so much with this but I
    0:38:30 tell you today I look at
    0:38:31 that camera I can’t
    0:38:31 believe I ever made a
    0:38:32 movie with that thing
    0:38:34 it’s so ridiculously
    0:38:35 primitive I’m just like
    0:38:36 how did I even think I
    0:38:38 could get anything done
    0:38:39 with this and it even
    0:38:40 exposed and mariachi the
    0:38:41 same way you have to
    0:38:42 think about it I shot
    0:38:43 mariachi on film and
    0:38:45 with a bar 16 millimeter
    0:38:46 camera I didn’t know
    0:38:48 how to use it I called up
    0:38:49 a place in Dallas that
    0:38:49 rented that kind of
    0:38:51 equipment and I said I
    0:38:53 have an airy 16s here
    0:38:57 two motor looking things
    0:38:59 one has a 24 yeah and
    0:39:00 one has a bunch of
    0:39:01 numbers oh that’s a
    0:39:02 variable speed motor that
    0:39:03 means you can do a
    0:39:04 different speed I can
    0:39:04 shoot slow motion with
    0:39:06 this oh wow do you have a
    0:39:07 torque motor I don’t know
    0:39:08 what is that is there
    0:39:09 something on the side of
    0:39:10 the magazine like it does
    0:39:13 yeah now you can just look
    0:39:14 up on YouTube and it shows
    0:39:15 you how I was doing it by
    0:39:17 phone that way and then I
    0:39:17 went and shot the movie
    0:39:19 right then yeah and I
    0:39:21 didn’t know if any of it
    0:39:23 was exposing or if the film
    0:39:25 camera was working until I
    0:39:26 finished the whole movie so
    0:39:27 imagine you have to go
    0:39:28 down to Mexico shoot for
    0:39:30 two weeks come back send
    0:39:31 it off to the lab you
    0:39:32 want to talk about being
    0:39:35 nervous yeah just hoping
    0:39:37 something exposed and when
    0:39:39 I saw it come back and the
    0:39:40 tape you know they
    0:39:41 transferred it to a tape so
    0:39:42 I could edit it deck to
    0:39:44 deck again I was so
    0:39:45 relieved some things didn’t
    0:39:46 come out but I can cut
    0:39:47 around that it’s like oh
    0:39:48 yeah because I’m doing
    0:39:49 everything like right here
    0:39:50 you’re doing everything
    0:39:51 imagine if you forgot to
    0:39:52 stop down and it’s open
    0:39:53 all the way and one shot
    0:39:54 is blown out you know I’d
    0:39:56 have stuff like that because
    0:39:56 I’m moving fast and I’m
    0:39:57 doing it wait a minute
    0:39:59 you shot I’m gonna actually
    0:40:01 the whole thing without
    0:40:02 knowing if some of the
    0:40:03 footage is damaged wrong
    0:40:05 without any of it that’s
    0:40:06 why I only did one take
    0:40:09 so my idea was this how
    0:40:10 gangster is that well it
    0:40:13 was a test film right right
    0:40:14 I thought it was I thought
    0:40:15 it was going to be a test
    0:40:16 film yeah it’s the only
    0:40:17 movie in history ever made
    0:40:20 where the filmmaker did not
    0:40:22 think anyone would see it
    0:40:24 and expect it and even set
    0:40:25 it up that way I mean why
    0:40:25 would I make an action
    0:40:26 movie for the Spanish
    0:40:28 market called basically the
    0:40:29 guitar player promises no
    0:40:30 action no one’s gonna watch
    0:40:32 it but I thought if someone
    0:40:33 actually picks it up and has
    0:40:34 the balls to watch this
    0:40:35 thing they’re gonna be
    0:40:35 surprised I put a lot of
    0:40:37 action it was just to learn
    0:40:38 from I just needed to make
    0:40:39 it for as little as
    0:40:40 possible see how much I
    0:40:42 could sell it for if I
    0:40:43 could double my money great
    0:40:44 I can make another one and
    0:40:45 just get more practice it
    0:40:47 was just I was so intrigued
    0:40:49 by this idea because you’ve
    0:40:50 heard advice about screen
    0:40:52 writing I heard advice back
    0:40:53 then that I thought was
    0:40:54 ridiculous it said it’s
    0:40:55 gonna take you a long
    0:40:56 time to be a good
    0:40:57 screenwriter so write three
    0:40:58 scripts and throw them
    0:41:00 away the fourth script will
    0:41:00 be the good one I was
    0:41:02 like it’s so hard to write
    0:41:03 a script who’s gonna write
    0:41:05 three full scripts knowing
    0:41:05 they throw them away
    0:41:07 wouldn’t it be better if
    0:41:08 you write three scripts and
    0:41:10 then shoot each one and be
    0:41:11 the cameraman be the sound
    0:41:13 guy be everything because
    0:41:13 that way you’re learning not
    0:41:14 just writing you’re
    0:41:15 learning how to make a
    0:41:17 movie so that was my idea
    0:41:18 I’m gonna make three of
    0:41:20 these hide it on Spanish
    0:41:21 video but make money back
    0:41:22 that’s like my own film
    0:41:24 school paying me paying me to
    0:41:26 learn so the first one I
    0:41:27 thought let me just shoot
    0:41:30 it one take each because my
    0:41:31 friend Carlos lives in
    0:41:33 Mexico if we shoot two
    0:41:34 takes most of the cost is to
    0:41:35 film I’ve just doubled my
    0:41:37 budget so let me just shoot
    0:41:39 one take some of it’s gonna
    0:41:40 not come out but I’m not
    0:41:40 gonna know what I’m not
    0:41:42 gonna shoot a safety one
    0:41:43 that doubles my let me let
    0:41:44 me see some things might come
    0:41:47 out I expected like 70% of
    0:41:49 it to maybe be okay but 30% I
    0:41:50 might have to come reshoot
    0:41:51 which is fine I just drive
    0:41:52 back there and then I just
    0:41:53 reshoot just those shots
    0:41:56 right so I just went let’s
    0:41:58 shoot we stop we come back
    0:41:59 then I send it off to
    0:42:01 develop because we’re
    0:42:02 shooting two weeks
    0:42:03 consecutively to get film
    0:42:05 shipped back and forth from
    0:42:06 Mexico to see if it came out
    0:42:07 you just couldn’t do it I
    0:42:09 just had to you know double
    0:42:11 down on it do it one take
    0:42:12 everything I remember one
    0:42:12 time I was still an actor
    0:42:14 man I told you to run
    0:42:15 through that shot and you
    0:42:16 and you go oh let me do it
    0:42:18 no one take dude just think
    0:42:19 about next time do what I
    0:42:20 say I didn’t think anyone
    0:42:21 was gonna see it so you and
    0:42:22 because you don’t think
    0:42:24 anyone’s gonna see it you end
    0:42:25 up doing something remarkable
    0:42:26 which is well I’m just gonna
    0:42:27 make something for myself
    0:42:28 because if I was making a
    0:42:29 movie that was gonna go to
    0:42:31 Sundance I wouldn’t have
    0:42:32 made that movie I would have
    0:42:33 thought okay I gotta get
    0:42:34 serious but because I made
    0:42:35 this movie that was just
    0:42:36 entertaining myself like
    0:42:38 bedhead it entertained
    0:42:42 audiences so that naivete is
    0:42:43 really important when you’re
    0:42:44 starting out or at any point
    0:42:46 in your life be naive about
    0:42:47 what things gonna and just do
    0:42:48 something for yourself that
    0:42:49 taught me a very valuable
    0:42:50 lesson because I didn’t
    0:42:51 want anybody to see it I
    0:42:53 just thought one take one
    0:42:55 take when I got back home a
    0:42:56 bunch of stuff didn’t come
    0:42:57 out but I’m like I’m not
    0:42:59 going back to Mexico I’ll
    0:43:00 figure out a way to edit
    0:43:01 around it and make the movie
    0:43:04 shorter and that’s just gonna
    0:43:05 be the movie and then that’s
    0:43:06 the one that went one
    0:43:08 Sundance that was your first
    0:43:09 feature film that’s one you
    0:43:09 made for seven thousand
    0:43:10 dollars you mentioned your
    0:43:12 friend Carlos there’s the
    0:43:13 star of the movie everything
    0:43:16 one take and you know I
    0:43:17 highly recommend people go
    0:43:18 back and watch that movie it’s
    0:43:20 it’s just incredible movie it’s
    0:43:22 fun and it’s it’s an action
    0:43:24 film moves really fast the
    0:43:26 story is really interesting so
    0:43:26 the script is really
    0:43:28 interesting all the actors you
    0:43:30 could tell they all kind of
    0:43:32 stepped up and played their own
    0:43:33 they weren’t actors that’s
    0:43:36 right friends of ours which is
    0:43:38 why and because and this is
    0:43:40 the magic of not having a crew
    0:43:41 they didn’t feel like they’re
    0:43:44 making a movie it’s like this you
    0:43:45 know we’re we’re just here yeah
    0:43:48 me with my one camera in fact
    0:43:52 the gal uh carl said this one
    0:43:53 girl i forgot she’s in town maybe
    0:43:54 she would work because we try to
    0:43:56 get a soap star she backed out so
    0:43:58 we got this gal over she goes but i
    0:43:59 don’t know how to act and i said
    0:44:00 here let’s watch i want to show you
    0:44:02 some on mexican tv a telenovela was
    0:44:05 on and you see someone you know all
    0:44:07 over over i said that’s acting i don’t
    0:44:09 want you to do that i want you to just
    0:44:12 talk like you’re that the love
    0:44:14 interest the woman in that that’s
    0:44:15 you’re talking about that’s what
    0:44:16 you’re talking about she’s amazing
    0:44:18 she’s amazing because i got a video
    0:44:20 of her i said i want you to just do
    0:44:22 this one line pretend like you’re just
    0:44:24 talking to your boyfriend yeah and i
    0:44:26 showed her i showed her the video that
    0:44:27 was cool because i couldn’t show her
    0:44:29 the film because we have to develop it
    0:44:31 but i showed her a video test of
    0:44:32 herself doing it and she saw herself
    0:44:34 doing it she suddenly had the
    0:44:35 confidence we went through her
    0:44:37 closet this red dress you can wear
    0:44:38 that and everyone just brought their
    0:44:40 own clothes she really had like a
    0:44:42 sexuality attention like a romantic
    0:44:44 tension that was real those isn’t it
    0:44:46 was a it was in part a great love
    0:44:48 story that i mean as ridiculous as it
    0:44:51 is to say yeah and yeah in part like a
    0:44:53 dramatic love story yeah the idea was
    0:44:55 that you know i thought a guitar player
    0:44:57 you know originally what i wanted to do
    0:44:59 was like road warrior i said i want a
    0:45:00 guy with a guitar case full of weapons
    0:45:02 going from town to town like road
    0:45:03 warrior but i don’t have enough money
    0:45:05 for the first one to do that that’ll
    0:45:08 be the second movie i do how we do a
    0:45:10 genesis story how he became that guy
    0:45:12 so let’s do mad max basically how he
    0:45:14 becomes that guy so maybe he is a
    0:45:16 guitar player so that you start writing
    0:45:17 it out i was going to show you my
    0:45:20 writing method i write on on index cards
    0:45:23 and i carry one of these a little
    0:45:25 packet of index cards i keep one always
    0:45:28 in my bag and i smile when i run across
    0:45:30 it because i go i’ve made a million
    0:45:32 dollars one of these before you know
    0:45:35 it’s like this is the key to your next
    0:45:37 success cards because you know when you
    0:45:39 go see a therapist you’re not going to
    0:45:40 them for the answers you’re going to
    0:45:42 them for the questions you got the
    0:45:44 answers inside which you don’t have
    0:45:45 other questions a lot of times we ask
    0:45:47 ourselves very unempowering questions
    0:45:49 like why am i such a loser you know i
    0:45:51 can think of 10 answers right now but if
    0:45:53 you could but if you go what three
    0:45:54 things can i do today that’ll not just
    0:45:56 change my life but everyone around me
    0:45:59 take steps to that take out your cards
    0:46:01 you start writing them down you won’t
    0:46:02 come up with three you’ll come up with
    0:46:05 15 like wow because you’re asking
    0:46:07 yourself and you’ll see him so when i was
    0:46:09 doing that movie i thought okay he’s a
    0:46:13 guitar player for real and he gets mixed
    0:46:16 up with the guy with a case so how about
    0:46:18 he walks into a bar so right down there
    0:46:21 he walks into a bar bar trying to get
    0:46:24 work bartender looks at him we don’t
    0:46:25 hire maria she’s get the hell out of
    0:46:29 here so he leaves after that whole scene
    0:46:30 explaining who he is and what his story
    0:46:32 is then the shooter comes in with a
    0:46:34 guitar case full of weapons he’s also
    0:46:35 dressed in black and he shoots the
    0:46:38 place up now that was a short film
    0:46:40 that’s how you start a short film but
    0:46:42 this is a feature movie so shit i gotta
    0:46:44 figure out how to tell a feature i’m
    0:46:46 gonna need a few more cards before that
    0:46:50 so i’m gonna need well who’s this bad
    0:46:51 guy how about he’s in jail i’d read a
    0:46:54 story it’s a crazy story about a guy who
    0:46:56 was in jail mexico and he was running his
    0:46:58 drug business from the jail his protection
    0:46:59 he could walk out anytime but he was it
    0:47:01 was to have the cops be his enforcers
    0:47:04 basically so introduce that guy he’s in
    0:47:08 jail making phone calls and someone puts a
    0:47:09 hit on him so we have action right away
    0:47:12 there’s a hit on him he kills those guys
    0:47:15 because it’s his operation he’s not in
    0:47:18 jail all the cops are working for him and
    0:47:20 he tells that guy on the phone the main
    0:47:22 bad guy i’m gonna come to town i’m gonna
    0:47:24 kill all your guys i’m gonna come kill
    0:47:27 you so then he gets in his truck and you
    0:47:30 see them bring him a guitar case full of
    0:47:35 weapons he passes the mariachi on the way
    0:47:37 to town and now it’s his story the baton
    0:47:40 gets turned to mariachi mariachi’s doing a
    0:47:42 voiceover easy to shoot we can do the
    0:47:44 voice later we don’t have to sing sound
    0:47:47 there was even a scene when he walks into
    0:47:49 town where we saw these coconuts a guy
    0:47:50 cutting coconuts and we go let’s go film
    0:47:52 over there so we film the guy giving him
    0:47:55 a coconut with a straw in it and he walks
    0:47:56 out i’m like shit man you forgot to pay
    0:47:59 the guy well let’s shoot that no there’s
    0:48:01 one take i’ll just put in the voiceover
    0:48:02 that they give away free coconuts in this
    0:48:05 town and for years people in other
    0:48:06 countries would go they really give away
    0:48:08 free coconuts no it’s because we forgot
    0:48:09 to show him pain you know little happy
    0:48:11 accidents so now look you’re already
    0:48:13 building a movie so it’s like now he
    0:48:15 goes in the bar now he’s mixed up and
    0:48:17 the bad guy says find the guy with a
    0:48:19 guitar case full of weapons then he goes
    0:48:22 it meets the girl so you just start your
    0:48:24 movie visually you can start seeing your
    0:48:26 movie and i’ve used this for business
    0:48:28 things i’ve used this for ideas for
    0:48:30 manifesting stuff it’s brilliant are you
    0:48:33 doing this alone usually are you it’s
    0:48:35 coming and it comes so fast it’s like
    0:48:36 free association maybe i have the ending
    0:48:38 oh i know i want his hand shot he’s
    0:48:41 gonna get his hand shot because he’s a
    0:48:43 musician and those ballads are always
    0:48:47 really tragic so the girl has to die the
    0:48:48 girl has to die because if it’s a it’s
    0:48:50 going to be a tragic song for his song
    0:48:52 book each movie should be like a tragedy
    0:48:56 that’s going to be over here you know
    0:48:57 you know you got the ending and then
    0:48:59 your brain starts filling in the rest
    0:49:00 because you’re asking yourself these
    0:49:03 prompt questions that you already have
    0:49:05 answers for from a past life from a vision
    0:49:06 you had that you don’t even know are
    0:49:09 there this prompts it it’s kind of a
    0:49:10 puzzle that you’re figuring out what
    0:49:12 happens if you get stuck like this
    0:49:14 doesn’t make sense like some aspect of
    0:49:17 structure doesn’t make sense all there
    0:49:18 you won’t yeah you just start you just
    0:49:19 start writing in the ones you do know
    0:49:22 yeah like okay i know i know at some
    0:49:25 point she’s going to betray him or he’s
    0:49:28 going to think she does she betrays him
    0:49:31 okay that’s in the middle somewhere uh
    0:49:32 the other ones will come yeah those are
    0:49:34 all like crossroads for the story
    0:49:35 doesn’t that like how do you know she
    0:49:37 has to die can that can you change your
    0:49:39 mind about that i can yeah but for now i
    0:49:43 felt like if i really want the story’s
    0:49:44 telling me now what it is i didn’t know
    0:49:46 i was going to make a genesis story i
    0:49:48 wanted to do the road warrior guy but the
    0:49:50 road warrior he lost his family so
    0:49:52 really to propel him to become a guy who
    0:49:54 has a guitar case full of weapons he has
    0:49:57 to lose everything so that he needs a
    0:50:00 ghost so this is a genesis story of a
    0:50:01 character well look bruce wayne lost his
    0:50:02 parents you could say well does the
    0:50:04 parents have to die well no but it’s not
    0:50:06 going to propel him like it’s not going
    0:50:08 to it’s not going to drive him like that
    0:50:10 thing so it just kept it’s just coming to
    0:50:13 me so this is my other trick and this is
    0:50:14 the main thing you got to learn about
    0:50:17 if you take any way this isn’t me doing
    0:50:19 it i totally believe that because when
    0:50:22 you start doing this you go where are
    0:50:24 these answers coming from i’m asking the
    0:50:25 right question but why how come the
    0:50:27 answers just keep coming like this
    0:50:30 i believe because i do so many different
    0:50:32 jobs i’ve learned this over the years
    0:50:35 america when it was in 2002 i was like
    0:50:38 how is it that i’m the production
    0:50:40 designer the composer which i don’t even
    0:50:42 know how to read or write music and i’m
    0:50:44 writing orchestral score and i’m doing
    0:50:45 the editing and i’m doing the
    0:50:48 cinematography i haven’t been trained for
    0:50:49 any i never went to school for these
    0:50:52 specifically must be something about
    0:50:54 creativity so i went on amazon it’s
    0:50:59 2002 i look up creative books anything
    0:51:01 that has creativity in the title i just
    0:51:03 ordered it and i’ve got a bunch of books
    0:51:06 on creativity and i was reading them
    0:51:08 through one of them was like really
    0:51:09 speaking to me yeah that’s that’s it
    0:51:11 that’s the process is it and then it says
    0:51:13 gels and mediums and i’m like oh this is a
    0:51:17 book specifically about painting but it
    0:51:20 applies to music editing cinematography
    0:51:23 writing it’s all the same so that’s when i
    0:51:27 realized that creativity is 90 of any of
    0:51:30 those jobs the technical part of setting
    0:51:33 up the cameras of writing a script in
    0:51:35 format or reading or writing music that’s
    0:51:38 10 of that how many musicians you know
    0:51:39 don’t read or write music and they’re
    0:51:42 fantastic because 90 what they do is
    0:51:44 creative now i believe that that same
    0:51:47 person even if they only do music could
    0:51:49 literally jump from job to job
    0:51:52 creatively and do a superior job than
    0:51:54 most technicians and there’s also
    0:51:55 something to say there about the
    0:51:58 learning the technical aspects of an
    0:52:01 art you you collide with the uh
    0:52:06 uh with the experts what happens is i’ve
    0:52:07 experienced this a lot with like with
    0:52:09 using cameras and so on i don’t know
    0:52:11 shit about cameras and that you roll in
    0:52:13 and then there’s all the experts almost
    0:52:16 talking down to you and telling you how
    0:52:17 things are supposed to be everything is
    0:52:19 wrong i talked to somebody about like
    0:52:22 soundproofing a room and they said they
    0:52:25 gave me prices they’re insane and like
    0:52:26 the amount of effort is insane and this
    0:52:29 the the i’m telling you something the
    0:52:30 dynamics of this room are all wrong i’m
    0:52:32 like why can’t i just fucking hang up
    0:52:34 some curtains like what it seems like
    0:52:36 that kills most of the echo like i don’t
    0:52:37 i don’t understand and they’re like no
    0:52:39 this is all wrong is there’s corn the
    0:52:41 corners are gonna have some so and i’m
    0:52:43 like fuck it i’m just gonna try i’m
    0:52:44 gonna see what it sounds like a and b
    0:52:47 okay here’s audio with curtains here’s
    0:52:48 audio without curtains seems like this is
    0:52:50 fine as a move on to the next thing
    0:52:53 i think that when you say creativity
    0:52:57 some of that is being a rebel like not
    0:52:59 listening to the experts yeah well you’re
    0:53:00 going on your creativity which is what
    0:53:02 is that that’s like an do you consider
    0:53:04 yourself a creative person i think you
    0:53:06 play guitar yeah guitar piano yeah
    0:53:07 everything piano okay but you could be
    0:53:08 would you call yourself a creative
    0:53:09 person
    0:53:12 yeah i think so good you should i think
    0:53:14 that’s a positive i would just suggest
    0:53:16 to anybody is just own it own it and
    0:53:19 just say i like when i do so many
    0:53:21 different jobs it sounds crazy when
    0:53:23 they would introduce me hey robert he
    0:53:24 does this blah blah blah blah and i was
    0:53:26 like i get tired just hearing that list
    0:53:27 but when i think about it there’s really
    0:53:29 only one thing i do and i live a
    0:53:30 creative life and when you live a
    0:53:32 creative life that means anything that
    0:53:33 has to do with creativity whether it’s
    0:53:36 filming or piano guitar sculpting or you
    0:53:38 can just you can do it you can take it
    0:53:39 on and do it because it teaches you more
    0:53:41 about your main job i become a better
    0:53:43 director by doing all those jobs because
    0:53:45 when somebody just does one job they
    0:53:47 barely know that job you have to do
    0:53:49 more to learn about creativity and this
    0:53:51 is the main thing i learned was that
    0:53:54 i’m writing music you know for an
    0:53:56 orchestra i’m like how did i i don’t
    0:53:57 even know what i’m doing why is that
    0:53:59 coming out i don’t feel like i’m doing
    0:54:02 it i feel like i picked up the pen i feel
    0:54:05 like i had the idea to do the cards but
    0:54:06 then when everything just starts coming
    0:54:08 out so quickly like that’s how fast i
    0:54:12 wrote that movie i go i really feel like
    0:54:13 something else has taken over so this
    0:54:16 is what my belief is and because i hear
    0:54:17 it in different realms like you ask
    0:54:18 keith reggie how do you come up with
    0:54:19 these riffs because i don’t i don’t
    0:54:21 they’re floating around the sky and i
    0:54:23 pull them out first you know yes as you
    0:54:24 know jimmy vaughn how do you play
    0:54:26 guitar those solos goes it’s like a
    0:54:28 radio you know once you get a tune just
    0:54:29 right you can’t even believe what’s
    0:54:32 coming through so i believe i call it
    0:54:33 the creative spirit there’s a spirit
    0:54:35 assigned to all of us it’s creative
    0:54:38 that doesn’t have hands it needs you to
    0:54:40 pick up the pen pull out the cards
    0:54:42 and then when you start getting in the
    0:54:44 flow and you’re like whoa it’s writing
    0:54:46 it’s that’s that and if you can have
    0:54:49 that mindset you take your ego out of
    0:54:51 it and go all i need to do is be a good
    0:54:53 conduit for this thing be a good pipe and
    0:54:55 it’s going to come through so you don’t
    0:54:57 ever have to get hung up on that question
    0:54:59 you had well well what happens when you
    0:55:00 can’t come up it wasn’t me to begin
    0:55:03 with if it’s not coming out it’s because
    0:55:05 i’m blocking it and if i were to do
    0:55:08 this and i’m flowing and if i were to
    0:55:11 say wow i just wrote 10 cards i don’t
    0:55:12 know if i can write more how did i do
    0:55:14 that you just shut the pipe because your
    0:55:16 ego got in the way you just clogged it
    0:55:18 because it gets pissed off that you think
    0:55:20 it’s you it’s not you it’s like dude just
    0:55:22 open up let me through pick up the
    0:55:25 fucking pen and i learned this in uh when
    0:55:27 i was 19 when i had a daily cartoon
    0:55:29 strip i had to draw a comic strip every
    0:55:33 day to get paid and i would be like i’d
    0:55:35 have to draw like one drawing draw
    0:55:36 another drawing then it’s like okay
    0:55:38 these kind of go together it was a
    0:55:40 process you know and sometimes i just
    0:55:42 felt like i wish i could just envision
    0:55:44 it sit back i’m gonna try that method i
    0:55:46 went home and i would sit back and just
    0:55:49 try to get in my sofa try the sofa method
    0:55:50 i’m just gonna try a picture the comic
    0:55:51 strip and then as soon as i got one i
    0:55:53 think it’s funny then i’ll just go draw
    0:55:55 that right doesn’t be done in a half
    0:55:58 hour why why it’s three hours i’d sit
    0:55:59 there and sit there and sit there my
    0:56:00 deadline be coming up got like 30
    0:56:02 minutes like oh shit gotta go sit and
    0:56:04 draw it out it’s like okay i got this
    0:56:06 drawings kind of oh this kind of goes
    0:56:08 with that if i make another drawing i have
    0:56:10 my strip that’s the only way to do it
    0:56:12 if you don’t get up the creative spirit
    0:56:13 ain’t gonna come visit you if you’re
    0:56:17 doing this yeah it needs your hands and
    0:56:19 it’s not gonna reward you for sitting
    0:56:21 there waiting for you have to jump in and
    0:56:23 do it and people when they say oh well
    0:56:26 i’m not ready how pissed off is that
    0:56:29 it’s waiting for you to feel like you’re
    0:56:31 ready it’s not you just start doing the
    0:56:33 action and it’s gonna come through and
    0:56:35 the ideas will come and the answers will
    0:56:36 come because it’s not you and if you can
    0:56:38 take your ego out of like you’ll be
    0:56:40 blessed with this never-ending flow of
    0:56:43 ideas because don’t take ownership for
    0:56:44 it and know that you’re if it’s not
    0:56:46 coming out because you’re just clogging
    0:56:47 it because this thing’s got endless
    0:56:50 ideas and you give that same advice for
    0:56:52 for making films which is you know don’t
    0:56:54 plan if you want to be a filmmaker don’t
    0:56:56 plan like the movie don’t think about
    0:56:58 making them would just go in and start
    0:56:59 yeah i would meet a lot of people who
    0:57:02 introduce themselves as aspiring i’m an
    0:57:04 aspiring filmmaker and i wonder how what
    0:57:05 would you tell an aspiring filmmaker i
    0:57:08 said stop aspiring because if you call
    0:57:11 yourself that you are that and you’re
    0:57:12 always going to feel like you’re not
    0:57:14 ready and you don’t you just jump in
    0:57:16 before you’re ready you don’t feel like
    0:57:17 you’re ready till i didn’t feel like i
    0:57:19 was ready to do mariachi till i was
    0:57:20 probably in my last few days of filming
    0:57:22 you became ready as you went you didn’t
    0:57:23 know all that stuff i couldn’t have
    0:57:26 figured all that out in advance when my
    0:57:27 kids worked with me on a project that
    0:57:30 we did similar by the end they realized
    0:57:31 they did an interview with my son who
    0:57:33 after just two weeks of doing one of
    0:57:34 those projects you’re a different
    0:57:36 person he’s suddenly waxing
    0:57:38 philosophical about the creative
    0:57:39 process and going i never knew how my
    0:57:41 dad did mariachi until we did this
    0:57:43 project together and i realized he
    0:57:44 didn’t know either he didn’t know i
    0:57:45 was going to do it he figured it out
    0:57:47 day by day every challenge that got
    0:57:50 thrown at him he had to figure it out
    0:57:52 and that’s the biggest lesson most
    0:57:55 people never start and that’s the
    0:57:56 biggest thing don’t wait till you’re
    0:57:57 ready or they’ll be on your tombstone
    0:57:59 here lies so-and-so he was never ready
    0:58:01 and you don’t want to be that guy jump
    0:58:04 in no it’s not you you just got to be
    0:58:06 the hands and that that that relieves a
    0:58:07 lot of pressure from you because then
    0:58:09 you don’t have to ever have to do
    0:58:11 anything really you just have to be the
    0:58:12 hands can you talk through some of the
    0:58:14 hats some of the many hats you wore
    0:58:16 with the el mariachi it’s that’s an
    0:58:18 interesting case study and you’ve done
    0:58:19 the same thing over and over in
    0:58:21 completely different innovative ways
    0:58:23 in all the films but el mariachi is such
    0:58:27 a radical leap for you i was crazy i
    0:58:28 was that thing’s held together with
    0:58:30 scotch tape rubber bands because of the
    0:58:33 camera i borrowed you directed you did
    0:58:37 cinematography you did the sound it’s
    0:58:38 better to just say what i didn’t do i
    0:58:39 didn’t act in front of the camera
    0:58:42 everything else i did everything else i
    0:58:44 was the whole crew yeah it’s just like
    0:58:47 you’re doing here except you’ve got
    0:58:50 sound recording um right onto the
    0:58:52 cameras right or do you have it to the
    0:58:54 system uh separately but it’s synced i
    0:58:56 mean all the modern technology i didn’t
    0:58:58 have sync camera yep so i had a camera
    0:59:01 that yep it was not it was not a sync
    0:59:04 camera and the thing was it was so loud i
    0:59:05 would have had to blimp the shit out of
    0:59:07 it i didn’t have a blimp and then i
    0:59:08 would have needed a sound guy just to be
    0:59:10 clear so people don’t understand this
    0:59:12 you’re shooting basically no sound
    0:59:14 because the camera sounds like this
    0:59:18 it’s like it sounds like all your
    0:59:19 money’s going away first of all so i
    0:59:20 would go like this
    0:59:24 action you start running yeah and i shoot
    0:59:24 my edit
    0:59:30 yep you know they’re still running you
    0:59:31 know like i’m only using this part
    0:59:34 and there’s no slates there’s no nut
    0:59:35 there’s there’s guys holding up their
    0:59:36 fingers at the beginning of roll like
    0:59:38 this is real seven yeah for just a few
    0:59:39 frames so i know which real it is
    0:59:41 and then that 10 minutes of film
    0:59:45 is just one shot after another and i
    0:59:47 use almost every frame of those shots
    0:59:50 i was cutting in the camera now after i
    0:59:52 shoot like let’s say you know tell me
    0:59:53 your name
    0:59:55 lex what’s your last name
    0:59:57 friedman where do you live
    1:00:00 austin texas i would do the whole scene
    1:00:02 then i’ll get the sound bring the mic in
    1:00:04 close like that say it again lex
    1:00:07 friedman austin texas that’ll probably
    1:00:11 now if you were going on and on there’s a
    1:00:13 place where it’d go out of sync i hate
    1:00:16 rubbery lips so i would cut away to the
    1:00:19 dog or to the knife or to the girl and
    1:00:21 then i cut back when you’re back in sync
    1:00:23 and since these were non-actors they say
    1:00:25 everything the same way each time they
    1:00:27 would say their line just like they
    1:00:28 weren’t they weren’t performing it to
    1:00:29 where they didn’t remember how they
    1:00:30 performed the thing before they were just
    1:00:32 talking in their own rhythm so a lot of
    1:00:34 times it’s anytime you see anyone on
    1:00:36 camera talking they’re in sync with
    1:00:38 themselves and as soon as it cuts away
    1:00:40 they’re out of sync and it created this
    1:00:42 really fast cutting style that i probably
    1:00:44 wouldn’t have had on such a low budget
    1:00:45 movie but it was the only way to keep
    1:00:46 things in sync so when i would shoot two
    1:00:48 people talking i would make sure i’d
    1:00:51 film a couple shots of like the dog or a
    1:00:53 stuffed cat or something just so i’d have
    1:00:54 something to cut away to to get them
    1:00:56 back in sync that’s so brilliant it’s
    1:00:58 that i call it it’s just resourceful it’s
    1:01:00 just being very resourceful you allow it to
    1:01:02 get maybe a little bit out of sync
    1:01:03 sometimes i didn’t allow it but oh
    1:01:05 yeah i would let it if i just didn’t
    1:01:07 have a way to cut away right and i would
    1:01:09 try to sync it as best i could but we as
    1:01:11 the audience like do you understand
    1:01:13 where the threshold is where we notice
    1:01:15 something yeah it seems like you can get
    1:01:17 away with a lot you can get away with i
    1:01:19 just don’t i’m just particular about
    1:01:22 that i just don’t like seeing a dub movie
    1:01:24 where it just feels canned it makes you
    1:01:26 not believe in it anymore so i just cut
    1:01:29 away where the lips are just way off i
    1:01:31 just didn’t want any of that i just
    1:01:33 felt like i wanted it to just be
    1:01:35 believable and there they could be
    1:01:37 really believable if they’re in sync but
    1:01:39 i didn’t shoot two takes of film or even
    1:01:41 two takes of audio but just one take we
    1:01:43 just went to the and what’s cool is that
    1:01:45 because i just had them go through the
    1:01:48 whole scene again so i would go ahead and
    1:01:49 record them like grabbing the bottle or
    1:01:51 any action they did opening the suitcase i
    1:01:52 have all the sound effects too i just
    1:01:54 have to sync it by hand that’s a lot of
    1:01:57 work for me but i got great sound that
    1:01:59 way because if i had had a sync camera
    1:02:02 the mic would have been so far we wouldn’t
    1:02:04 have we would have had to go get new sound
    1:02:06 effects but because the camera is off i
    1:02:08 could record everything close up so there
    1:02:11 was some blessing to that you uh and
    1:02:13 quentin tarantino had a great conversation
    1:02:14 about a lot of topics but one of them is
    1:02:16 how to bring out the best in the actors
    1:02:18 like what in that el mariachi how do you
    1:02:21 bring out the best in these non-actors
    1:02:23 and then maybe what’s the thread that
    1:02:25 connects to your future work too
    1:02:28 what really helped for those non-actors
    1:02:30 was that they just look across and and
    1:02:32 it’s me filming they didn’t feel like
    1:02:33 they’re so they’re being so natural
    1:02:35 when i think i who played the bad guy i
    1:02:37 met him in the research hospital where i
    1:02:39 was sold my body to science he was my
    1:02:41 bunk mate and i said dude you look kind
    1:02:42 of like rudger howard and then it’s like
    1:02:44 we saw another movie man you look like
    1:02:45 james spader shit you should be the bad
    1:02:47 guy in my movie and it’d be cool to have
    1:02:48 you as the bad guy he goes but i don’t
    1:02:50 speak spanish well that’s okay all right
    1:02:52 and i’ll teach you phonetically and
    1:02:54 you’re going to wear sunglasses and if
    1:02:56 you look close he’s holding the he’s
    1:02:57 holding the lines here and he’s
    1:02:59 looking at the lines like that and just
    1:03:01 smiling so can’t believe he’s getting
    1:03:03 away with this he’s smiling and he’s
    1:03:05 got the sunglasses on i read that
    1:03:06 somewhere in the pool there’s like a
    1:03:08 scene in the pool he’s like with the
    1:03:11 sunglasses on with an oh man but but he
    1:03:13 was doing it phonetically and i tell you
    1:03:15 what he was so great that guy right
    1:03:17 yeah when we do desperado i brought him
    1:03:19 back didn’t even have to do any
    1:03:21 dialogue watch that movie when he
    1:03:22 shows up in the opening scene when
    1:03:25 desperado he’s playing the guitar and the
    1:03:27 opening with the credits to tie it into
    1:03:30 the first movie he shows up again and all
    1:03:31 he has to do is light a cigarette and you
    1:03:32 see this
    1:03:35 yeah because he’s so nervous because now
    1:03:37 there’s a crew behind me now it’s real
    1:03:40 before it was just me and him and it
    1:03:41 didn’t feel like a real movie so everyone
    1:03:44 gave a great performance so how do you
    1:03:46 recreate that later on a big movie is
    1:03:48 just building a report making a safe
    1:03:51 zone for your actors quentin once told
    1:03:52 me sometimes being you know we’re
    1:03:52 talking about directing is yeah
    1:03:54 sometimes being a great director is
    1:03:55 just being a great audience you know
    1:03:56 being a great audience for them
    1:03:58 because you’re you’re the you’re
    1:03:59 taking the place of the audience for
    1:04:01 the actor they try something if you’re
    1:04:02 enjoying it they know that the
    1:04:04 audience is going to enjoy it or if
    1:04:06 you’re you know makes you cry you
    1:04:07 know so sometimes you just you don’t
    1:04:09 have to tell them a lot sometimes and if
    1:04:11 you do have something very specific to
    1:04:13 tell them they usually you know go
    1:04:15 with it but I always just like to see
    1:04:17 what they do and a lot of times they
    1:04:19 just are in the zone because again
    1:04:21 they’re getting that flow to you create
    1:04:22 the right environment everyone’s
    1:04:24 getting this inspiration that’s all
    1:04:26 tied together that you never could have
    1:04:27 directed it’s just like you just
    1:04:29 create that space where we’re all
    1:04:31 going to be open to it and it’s going
    1:04:32 to drop in our lap and I’m going to
    1:04:35 point it out when it does because you
    1:04:36 may not feel like you know how to play
    1:04:40 this role yet but I say not knowing is
    1:04:41 the other half of the battle and the
    1:04:42 more important part and part that’s
    1:04:44 the part we’re going to discover and
    1:04:45 when it happens I’m going to point it
    1:04:46 out and it’s going to be like magic
    1:04:47 and we’re just going to go okay we’re
    1:04:48 accepting it and we do it and it gets
    1:04:50 people in that kind of headspace and
    1:04:52 then we’re all open to it to where the
    1:04:54 character is supposed to go with the
    1:04:55 what it’s supposed to sound like
    1:04:57 instead of me being very you know
    1:04:59 manipulative to get a certain thing I
    1:05:00 don’t know it’s it’s just whatever
    1:05:02 feels good yeah there’s such an
    1:05:03 intimate connection between the actor
    1:05:04 and the director I’ve seen some of
    1:05:05 the behind-the-scenes footage with
    1:05:08 you you are just a fan enjoying the
    1:05:10 scene when it’s done well but I
    1:05:11 think there’s an aspect if I were to
    1:05:13 put myself in the headspace of the
    1:05:15 actor they want you as the audience
    1:05:17 like to earn that happiness you know
    1:05:19 because when a director approves yeah
    1:05:21 well you’re a performer and you want
    1:05:22 and there’s no other you know it’s not
    1:05:23 like a live show where you get the
    1:05:25 approval of the audience and you’re
    1:05:26 like oh wow they they like that joke
    1:05:28 let me do more you know really the
    1:05:30 director is it and a lot of times the
    1:05:31 director’s way behind a monitor
    1:05:32 somewhere that’s why I still like to
    1:05:34 operate the camera so I’m operating the
    1:05:36 camera it’s like this we can have a
    1:05:37 hundred people here we wouldn’t
    1:05:38 know because they go away it’s just
    1:05:41 us they just disappear when it’s the
    1:05:43 camera guy is the director and we’re
    1:05:45 going let’s do that again so there’s a
    1:05:47 shot and I’m lighting sensitivity
    1:05:48 myself there’s all about my crew
    1:05:51 setting lights and I have this great
    1:05:53 shot of Clive Owen where he’s holding
    1:05:54 down Benicio’s head in the toilet you
    1:05:55 know Benicio’s not there it’s just a
    1:05:58 close-up of him at this point and I’m
    1:05:59 practicing my shot I’m zooming and
    1:06:01 slow in his face and people are still
    1:06:02 walking behind him on the green screen
    1:06:04 setting lights and I’m like I’m
    1:06:05 rolling we’re ready to go we’re
    1:06:06 getting this I can already tell we’re
    1:06:08 already in the moment what you’re
    1:06:09 doing right now just keep holding that
    1:06:11 look now one jolt like you’re like
    1:06:13 he’s starting to fight back but you
    1:06:15 don’t even flinch cut okay never mind
    1:06:16 you guys can stop moving that shit we
    1:06:18 already got holy shit it’s like that
    1:06:20 wow yeah it’s like that because you’re
    1:06:22 so that’s a great scene by the way
    1:06:25 great right and it’s holy shit if I
    1:06:26 wait for these guys this moment will be
    1:06:28 gone and then another one was Mickey
    1:06:30 Rourke you know he had so much
    1:06:32 freaking dialogue he had just done this
    1:06:33 whole big dialogue scene he had
    1:06:35 another one it said let’s go ahead
    1:06:38 and start with a wide shot where the
    1:06:40 two actors if I’m the camera you know
    1:06:42 Mickey and Elijah are here let’s get a
    1:06:43 two-shot and we’ll come around on
    1:06:45 Mickey close-up we don’t we’ll turn
    1:06:47 Mickey around for the close-up let’s
    1:06:48 start with the wide thing get used to
    1:06:50 the lines and most of it’s going to be
    1:06:51 sold in the close-up we sit down Mickey
    1:06:54 starts delivering the take hold on hold
    1:06:56 a second I brought my camera over zoom
    1:06:57 in just adjust that light real quick
    1:06:58 because I’m the DP because if I had
    1:07:00 another director of photography
    1:07:01 they’re like oh no no we have to
    1:07:02 relight and all this stuff it’s like
    1:07:04 no no let’s just do this this let’s go
    1:07:06 he’s doing it right now and I go and
    1:07:09 that performance is just right then and
    1:07:12 so you can feel that when you’re also
    1:07:14 you’re operating and you’re the camera
    1:07:17 guy and you’re the DP it’s like high-tech
    1:07:18 guerrilla filmmaking yeah we’re on a
    1:07:20 green screen but it’s like all the crew
    1:07:23 needs or you know marching orders just
    1:07:26 put a light back there hitting them harder
    1:07:28 like that’s a this is a 5k make that a
    1:07:29 10k it’s got to be stronger they don’t
    1:07:30 need to know that I’m going to make that
    1:07:32 a lamppost later they just need it
    1:07:34 marching orders for the moment so I can
    1:07:35 just kind of tell people do this do this
    1:07:37 do that and then I know what I can
    1:07:38 accomplish with the actor and then
    1:07:40 everything else falls into place later
    1:07:41 because I’m going to put all that in
    1:07:43 later you know things once you know how
    1:07:45 to do a lot of jobs like that you can
    1:07:46 just move at the speed of thought which
    1:07:48 is where the actors love being
    1:07:51 creatively because they nobody knew what
    1:07:52 green screen was back then they’re like
    1:07:54 what is this again so I explained it as
    1:07:56 well it’s kind of like doing theater
    1:07:58 but instead of a black curtain behind
    1:07:59 you with a prop it’ll be a green
    1:08:02 curtain and you might just have a cup
    1:08:04 or just a steering wheel but it’s just
    1:08:06 you and the other actors just like this
    1:08:08 and everything else will be painted in
    1:08:10 later we’re just talking we’re locked
    1:08:12 in if we stay locked in we’ll look great
    1:08:13 when there’s rain coming down and we’re
    1:08:16 on a ship later but it comes down to
    1:08:19 this right and the more it was so fun to
    1:08:20 do those kind of movies to this day you
    1:08:22 try to be close to the action
    1:08:24 connected with the actor that’s because
    1:08:27 it’s like a dance you end up that’s so
    1:08:29 like here I remember on dust till dawn
    1:08:31 Michael Parks in the opening scene he’s
    1:08:34 talking about the two guys that are
    1:08:36 running around killing people just before
    1:08:38 he gets shot and there’s a I just start
    1:08:40 doing this slow zoom I remember this take
    1:08:43 eight start doing the slow zoom on him
    1:08:46 and I’m like I hope I get all the way up
    1:08:48 to where it stops zooming when he finishes
    1:08:50 that speech because there’s no set way and
    1:08:52 I don’t know how he’s gonna say but
    1:08:54 you’re just locked almost telepathically
    1:08:56 and as he’s delivered there’s no edits
    1:08:58 he’s just going yeah they killed four
    1:09:02 rangers two hostages it’s just like wow
    1:09:04 and you’re just so pulled in I’m just
    1:09:06 like oh my god and then it stopped it’s
    1:09:07 like I ran out of zoom right as he
    1:09:09 finished that speech so how can a
    1:09:11 director because there’s a lot of great
    1:09:13 directors that stay in the in the bag I
    1:09:15 know it’s back you know they just trust
    1:09:16 that whatever they get from their crew
    1:09:18 they just you accept it just like you
    1:09:19 know you would get a take there’s so
    1:09:21 much I like I like that intimate
    1:09:24 connection because I could not be behind
    1:09:27 a monitor even if I had communication
    1:09:28 with my cameraman okay now start zooming
    1:09:31 in you’re not gonna know you have to
    1:09:32 feel it you have to be in there it’s
    1:09:33 like a dance it’s like trying to do a
    1:09:35 dance with a partner and you’re across
    1:09:36 the room you know it’s like no you got
    1:09:39 to be there up close feeling the energy
    1:09:41 and and it’s the the creative spirits
    1:09:43 whispering to your both you know it’s
    1:09:45 not your own idea it’s you’re
    1:09:46 capturing a moment that’s magic and
    1:09:48 there’s true magic that happens on a
    1:09:49 set and that’s what brings you back
    1:09:52 because you know I didn’t direct that
    1:09:54 and they didn’t act that that came
    1:09:56 through us and we just had the cameras
    1:09:59 rolling and we captured a ghost it’s
    1:10:00 like you said though you had a pen in
    1:10:02 hand and you were you were there like
    1:10:05 that crazy all right your friendship
    1:10:07 with Tarantino is just fascinating and
    1:10:09 just the whole timeline of the history
    1:10:11 of movies and the two of you collided and
    1:10:13 met is is just a fascinating part of the
    1:10:17 story you first met him in 1992 at the
    1:10:19 Toronto Film Festival can you just talk
    1:10:21 about meeting Tarantino and we both had
    1:10:24 films at the same time with first films
    1:10:29 guys in black action violence in fact I
    1:10:31 had seen this movie already my first film
    1:10:32 festival was a few months before that
    1:10:34 the Telluride Film Festival and Reservoir
    1:10:35 Dogs was there but Quentin couldn’t be
    1:10:36 there he was at Sundance earlier that
    1:10:39 year and the guy who became my agent he
    1:10:40 saw it he said hey you’re gonna like
    1:10:41 this guy Quentin Tarantino I told him
    1:10:43 about you you’re gonna meet him he’s
    1:10:45 gonna be in Toronto oh cool cool okay and
    1:10:46 so I went ahead and saw his movie and
    1:10:48 tell you right and I was like holy shit
    1:10:50 guys in black again just like the
    1:10:53 mariachis dressed in black and action I
    1:10:54 said oh we’re gonna like each other
    1:10:56 he’s gonna like me when he sees so then
    1:10:58 in Toronto we met and we met first on
    1:11:00 because I knew I was gonna be doing a
    1:11:02 panel discussion with him they asked us
    1:11:04 to do a panel discussion about violence
    1:11:06 and movies in the 90s even though it was
    1:11:09 only 92 so we’re on a panel together
    1:11:11 that’s where I met him and he’s like
    1:11:13 hey Robert Rodriguez told me about you
    1:11:14 and I was like yeah I saw your movie
    1:11:16 Reservoir Dogs and he goes oh you gotta
    1:11:18 come to my screening and I’m gonna come
    1:11:20 see yours so he came to mariachi and I
    1:11:22 videotaped the audience reactions
    1:11:24 because they were insane insane
    1:11:27 reactions to it but I have the first
    1:11:30 screening he saw mariachi sitting next
    1:11:32 to me laughing he’s laughing and
    1:11:34 everything he was just the best audience
    1:11:35 I have his recording of the first time
    1:11:37 he saw mariachi oh no really yeah
    1:11:40 because I tape it and he’s so loud
    1:11:41 because he’s right next to me well just
    1:11:43 like you but even probably even more
    1:11:47 than you he’s a fan he watches he just
    1:11:50 loves movies he loves movies in fact I the
    1:11:52 next time I heard him laugh that way was
    1:11:55 it that his own premiere for Kill Bill we’re
    1:11:57 watching Kill Bill and he’s laughing like
    1:11:59 it’s somebody else’s movie he still enjoys
    1:12:01 the movies it’s so he loves but all the
    1:12:03 actors did and it’s like that’s the kind
    1:12:05 energy you really love but I tell you
    1:12:08 what what what happened I’m not a very
    1:12:09 shy person you know very shy I’d have to
    1:12:11 go talk I’m sure you probably feel like
    1:12:13 you’re not an orator or anything you know
    1:12:16 just have to go do it I thought well man
    1:12:17 I’m gonna have to introduce my film and
    1:12:19 talk about it afterwards I’m afraid of
    1:12:20 that what am I gonna do I don’t remember
    1:12:22 talking in front of more than five people
    1:12:24 before so I went to see this other movie
    1:12:27 and it was good and I was watching and
    1:12:30 and then the director comes up at the
    1:12:32 end goes yeah well that was my movie and
    1:12:35 you know you know here’s the writer and
    1:12:37 it’s like I don’t like the movie anymore
    1:12:39 this guy’s kind of a dick so I cannot do
    1:12:43 that I’m gonna have to go be who they
    1:12:46 imagine made that movie so I wrote out my
    1:12:48 whole intro it was like a 20-minute
    1:12:50 intro because no one had ever heard of
    1:12:52 anybody making a movie for no money much
    1:12:56 less without a crew much less you know
    1:12:58 the way I did it was just very new nobody
    1:13:01 knew it was possible so my whole intro
    1:13:04 is like you’ll see the Columbia logo
    1:13:06 slapped in front it’s probably cost more
    1:13:08 than the whole movie and then I go
    1:13:09 through this is how I made it with a
    1:13:11 wheelchair for a dolly a turtle you know
    1:13:13 I wrote around things I had I mentioned
    1:13:16 the turtle the pit bull the bus the ranch
    1:13:18 all that stuff right so that when they see
    1:13:20 the movie in fact I think my wife was in
    1:13:22 the audience she said at Sundance people
    1:13:24 are laughing so much at your intro they
    1:13:26 just wanted to hear a story like this
    1:13:27 so badly I heard someone next to me say
    1:13:29 I’m gonna vote for his movie they
    1:13:31 hadn’t even seen the movie just because
    1:13:33 the story was so good they wanted that
    1:13:35 movie to be great and when they see the
    1:13:39 turtle big cheers when they see the pit
    1:13:41 bull big cheers when they see the school
    1:13:43 bus cheers but then when they see how we
    1:13:45 use it and he slams into it and falls in
    1:13:47 it they freaking lose their minds because
    1:13:49 they know how I put it together they
    1:13:50 know that the rubber bands and the
    1:13:54 popsicle sticks I already set it up and so
    1:13:56 that’s why that audience I just hate the
    1:13:59 reaction they’re so with it the context
    1:14:01 is so key like you can watch mariachi and
    1:14:04 go hey yeah this looks like a $7,000
    1:14:06 movie but if you know the story behind it
    1:14:08 suddenly I was curious I hadn’t seen it a
    1:14:10 long time I was watching it for the 20th
    1:14:13 anniversary we did a screening and the
    1:14:14 first few shots come up and I’m like oh
    1:14:17 yeah well it looks like a $7,000 movie and
    1:14:19 then it keeps going and it’s in the once
    1:14:20 we’re in the jail cell and the shootings
    1:14:22 happening and I realized oh my god we had
    1:14:26 these blanks that only fired one shot and
    1:14:31 it would jam so I had to show it going use
    1:14:32 the sound effect cut to the other guy cut
    1:14:35 back to have another one go I had to do
    1:14:36 these editing tricks to make it look like
    1:14:37 and then repeat a few frames so it goes
    1:14:40 so it looks like a machine gun all this
    1:14:42 stuff that I’m start sweating as I’m
    1:14:44 watching it going I can’t believe I made
    1:14:46 this movie with that freaking camera I
    1:14:47 don’t know how I did I couldn’t even
    1:14:49 see I’m there with this long lens
    1:14:51 pulling my own focus when I finally had
    1:14:54 to do a real movie I was operating the
    1:14:56 camera on my first real movie with a
    1:14:58 crew I get the camera and a guy comes
    1:15:02 over and he focuses for you that’s your
    1:15:04 job you focus shit I had to do my own
    1:15:06 focusing on the last movie I didn’t have
    1:15:08 so hard you’re trying to focus on a guy
    1:15:10 while you’re filming you don’t know
    1:15:13 where you are and it’s just I was
    1:15:14 couldn’t believe how much easier it is
    1:15:16 when you have a crew it’s extremely
    1:15:18 valuable to know that the pain of that
    1:15:21 the the spectrum of creativity that’s
    1:15:23 allowed within that even just the
    1:15:25 focusing yeah like how focusing fucks up
    1:15:27 on all the cameras on your cameras what
    1:15:29 what are the different artifacts that
    1:15:30 come off just to know yeah the
    1:15:32 battlefield in order to be a great
    1:15:34 general you have to know how to be a
    1:15:35 soldier on the battlefield yeah yeah it’s
    1:15:37 good to know all that stuff but you know
    1:15:39 it’s like the end of the day you could
    1:15:41 shoot something on a phone if you have a
    1:15:43 great story no one’s gonna even notice
    1:15:44 I’ll be oh we shut that on a phone I
    1:15:45 didn’t notice you know so sometimes
    1:15:47 people get caught up on what kind of
    1:15:48 camera should I have it’s like it’s not
    1:15:50 the camera that’s just the tool that’s
    1:15:52 just the pen that’s just like yeah you
    1:15:54 can have different paint brushes but you
    1:15:55 can go I’m gonna I’m gonna limit my
    1:15:57 palette I’m only gonna use a fan brush
    1:16:00 and a detail brush and I’m gonna make a
    1:16:01 painting do you think that painting is
    1:16:03 gonna suffer no it’s gonna take on an
    1:16:04 identity that you wouldn’t have had if
    1:16:06 you had all the other tools so
    1:16:07 sometimes the limitations help you
    1:16:10 because when you can do anything you
    1:16:12 come it can be crippling when I knew I
    1:16:13 could only use those things for
    1:16:14 mariachi it’s like all right well it’s
    1:16:16 very it’s very simple now let me show
    1:16:18 you how cheapskate I was like I did not
    1:16:20 spend on anything so when you see him
    1:16:22 walking around with a guitar case it’s a
    1:16:24 shitty cardboard one you know like I got
    1:16:27 from home I had to get a heavier one to
    1:16:31 put the guns in so we borrowed one but it
    1:16:34 had this material ripped off the top so
    1:16:35 you could see the wood it’s just the
    1:16:37 wood on top so didn’t match the other
    1:16:38 one because it wasn’t all black and I
    1:16:40 was too cheap to paint it black I didn’t
    1:16:43 want to spend money on paint so you see
    1:16:46 that cardboard case he puts it down and
    1:16:48 when he goes to open it I cut to the
    1:16:51 other one once the wood is is yeah watch
    1:16:53 the edits you’ll see it all but now it’s
    1:16:54 a completely different case for the guns
    1:16:57 and when he goes to cut it when close it
    1:16:59 it cuts to the other one and he goes oh
    1:17:01 that’s how I did that whole movie again
    1:17:02 it was a practice film I don’t want to
    1:17:04 waste any money on it I don’t know if
    1:17:05 it’s going to be even I won’t be able
    1:17:07 to make five bucks from it yeah but
    1:17:10 this you’re one of the one of the few
    1:17:12 great directors where both the movies
    1:17:15 genius and the process of making it is
    1:17:17 creative genius it’s like fun to watch
    1:17:19 both to know of both you know what I
    1:17:21 believe right it’s like it’s from
    1:17:23 somewhere else I have to say you’re just
    1:17:26 that thing is freaking I didn’t get in
    1:17:28 its way this basically would help and
    1:17:30 people say that you know don’t get in
    1:17:32 your own way this is a little bit easier
    1:17:34 to understand it’s like keep the pipe
    1:17:37 clear don’t block it with your ego don’t
    1:17:38 say you’re gonna be shocked but don’t
    1:17:41 ever say oh shit how do I do that I don’t
    1:17:42 know if I can do that you didn’t do it to
    1:17:44 begin with except that it just came through
    1:17:46 you and try to get back into that head
    1:17:47 space especially when you go to make a
    1:17:49 second film or a third film or follow up a
    1:17:52 success that’s when artists get really
    1:17:54 crippled because sometimes they start
    1:17:55 tiptoeing around as an artist going like
    1:17:57 oh shit now it’s my second film my first
    1:17:59 one did really well they might not like
    1:18:02 my second one so much that’s not the
    1:18:03 headspace you were in when you made the
    1:18:06 first one you weren’t hesitant like that
    1:18:07 you’re just so try to keep that very
    1:18:10 naive and and that’s why I say commit to
    1:18:11 a body of work because I know a lot of
    1:18:13 filmmakers get stuck on their second one
    1:18:14 and then go further because they get
    1:18:16 crippled by the success of the first one
    1:18:18 and they start asking oh shit how did I
    1:18:20 do that how can I do that again and you
    1:18:22 get deeper and deeper in a hole you
    1:18:23 can’t get out of I think you’ve spoken
    1:18:25 about that filmmakers especially early on
    1:18:28 on their journey critics and the audience
    1:18:31 can destroy them meaning like it creates
    1:18:35 too much of a burden too much just wear
    1:18:37 them down to where they’re almost scared
    1:18:39 to be creative can you just speak to that
    1:18:40 how to ignore the critic I’ll tell you
    1:18:42 something that my best advice ever got
    1:18:46 early on I was so fortunate from an
    1:18:50 unlikely place because he’s such a
    1:18:51 he sounded like Clint Eastwood when he
    1:18:54 said it was funny when you said that but I
    1:18:57 got uh the desperado and had Antonio
    1:18:59 banderas I brought Antonio to be in it
    1:19:02 from Europe big action movie and so
    1:19:05 Spielberg saw it and he said um hey I
    1:19:08 want you to do Zorro with Antonio so we’re
    1:19:10 working on it for a while I did I was
    1:19:11 working on the pre-production got to work
    1:19:13 with Spielberg doing that it ended up
    1:19:15 stalling me as the there was like two
    1:19:16 studios involved and ambling was moving
    1:19:19 or it was some weird thing where but I
    1:19:20 got to work with him for about five
    1:19:22 months you know and I started getting
    1:19:24 really nervous because it’s like oh shit
    1:19:26 you start thinking about even movies of
    1:19:28 his that people would say oh you know
    1:19:29 Temple of Doom’s not as good as Raiders
    1:19:31 have you seen Temple of Doom I’d been
    1:19:33 killed if I can do that movie yeah if I
    1:19:35 can make Zorro as good as that one the
    1:19:37 one that people said it’s like people
    1:19:38 don’t know how good they had it with
    1:19:41 that guy but I started thinking I even
    1:19:43 said man I just re-watched Temple of
    1:19:44 Doom last night I don’t know how I’m
    1:19:46 gonna do this Zorro movie like I’ve just
    1:19:48 never done anything like that you start
    1:19:50 getting you know afraid because you go
    1:19:53 the second thing he said all right just
    1:19:56 just you’re gonna do fine but then I
    1:19:59 started thinking this guy at that time
    1:20:01 you don’t know the era but this was like
    1:20:06 mid-90s he was making the biggest best
    1:20:07 movies of all and people would shit all
    1:20:09 over this guy they would throw so much
    1:20:12 they were so jealous press audience
    1:20:14 everyone was just like hits at him just
    1:20:15 throwing rocks at him for everything
    1:20:18 Spielberg yeah you can’t imagine it now
    1:20:21 you had to been at that time now
    1:20:23 everyone has respect for him but they
    1:20:25 made him run a fucking gauntlet and
    1:20:28 they were like drastic park yeah you can’t
    1:20:29 even imagine it now but you should have
    1:20:31 seen the climate it freaked me out
    1:20:34 because I’m like maybe I should just stay
    1:20:36 under the radar where I’ve been you know
    1:20:38 not poke my head out so much yeah
    1:20:39 because this guy has a head out and
    1:20:43 they’re unwarranted just you can’t even
    1:20:44 fathom it now because you weren’t here
    1:20:46 at that time it was crazy you would
    1:20:48 never even think of him that way I’m
    1:20:49 glad it changed because back then it
    1:20:51 was just it made people not want to be
    1:20:55 successful and I made me be worried like
    1:20:56 maybe I shouldn’t be go making a movie
    1:20:58 that has his name on it that’s going to
    1:20:59 put my head out in a whole different
    1:21:01 realm of filmmaking at a studio level
    1:21:04 because if I make it even if I make a
    1:21:06 good movie if I make a great movie he’s
    1:21:07 making great movies he’s getting this
    1:21:10 dog shit I don’t know if I could take
    1:21:12 it you know so I asked him because you
    1:21:15 don’t know how resilient you can be so I
    1:21:18 said damn and pan how do you do it how
    1:21:20 do you how do you what do you do when
    1:21:23 people just throw rocks at you all day
    1:21:26 long he goes oh Robert you just don’t
    1:21:31 blink and I was like whoa now I see how
    1:21:34 he got through it just don’t blink just
    1:21:38 like you know it’s coming don’t blink and
    1:21:39 to him say it’s like a Clint Eastwood line
    1:21:42 right but it was like you could see he
    1:21:44 was telling the truth and you could see
    1:21:48 that’s how he did it he just avoided all
    1:21:51 criticism by just not blinking it’s like
    1:21:53 it’s designed to make you blink and you’re
    1:21:54 just not going to blink because you’re
    1:21:55 committing to a body of work he just
    1:21:57 keeps cranking out movies whatever he
    1:22:00 feels like doing he does and that was
    1:22:01 like the most pop and it never bothered
    1:22:03 me again I just like always kept in mind I
    1:22:05 tell that to my actors I tell that people
    1:22:08 that story has traveled I even had some
    1:22:10 little actors who were like starting to
    1:22:12 get up and I said remember tell you a
    1:22:14 couple of things some people have told
    1:22:15 me you’re never as good as people say you
    1:22:17 are and you’re never as bad either
    1:22:20 so I remember that and then the second
    1:22:26 one Spielberg don’t blink don’t blink but
    1:22:27 there has to be a kind of vision for
    1:22:31 yourself of what what you’re reaching for
    1:22:35 what you’re trying to do again yeah sort
    1:22:38 of sort of like I think if you told me
    1:22:39 what would be my vision for the future
    1:22:41 just committing to a body of work which
    1:22:43 I’ve just kept doing like that’s it’s
    1:22:44 about as far as you can see do you have
    1:22:47 a sense do you have a vision of the body
    1:22:49 of work you’ll make in the next 20 years
    1:22:51 like yeah or is it just like I wasn’t
    1:22:53 sure because you don’t always know what
    1:22:54 the you might not have the vision yet
    1:22:56 because you don’t have the information yet
    1:22:57 so you just commit to a body of work
    1:22:59 you’ll start figuring out more reasons
    1:23:01 to keep doing that body of work so when
    1:23:05 I turned 50 I was like I guess I could
    1:23:07 just keep making movies I mean I guess
    1:23:09 that’s been good for me yes I guess I
    1:23:11 could just make more I kind of done that
    1:23:13 already but it’s always fun and it’s
    1:23:16 always new and I guess I can make but it
    1:23:17 wasn’t a lot of drive right it’s like
    1:23:19 that’s not it’s like well I guess I
    1:23:20 could just keep doing the body you know
    1:23:22 that’s not as much as I can’t wait to
    1:23:25 keep doing another season but I know
    1:23:28 how to get to that point so I said you
    1:23:30 know what I got to this job so early I
    1:23:33 was in the early 20s I bet there’s some
    1:23:34 other job out there that exists that I
    1:23:35 don’t even know about because I don’t
    1:23:37 know other jobs so I looked up you
    1:23:39 don’t believe it but I literally bought
    1:23:42 jobs for dummies nice it was just like I
    1:23:43 don’t even know what I just have a basic
    1:23:45 jobs we’ve been out there turning the
    1:23:46 page oh yeah don’t want that job don’t
    1:23:48 want that job don’t want that job just
    1:23:50 going through and it gets to filmmaker
    1:23:52 there’s a little icon behind these job
    1:23:55 this icon is a guy like this literally
    1:23:57 you look it up it’s a and it says this
    1:23:59 is the best job ever you get to just be
    1:24:02 creative with your friends sit back watch
    1:24:05 the money roll in across the desk and I
    1:24:08 said but 99% of film students don’t get
    1:24:11 this job so give up that dream I guess I
    1:24:13 got the best job but then I started
    1:24:17 working with my kids when we did I had a
    1:24:19 TV show called Rebel Without a Crew based
    1:24:21 on that right I found filmmakers who had
    1:24:22 only made a short film they hadn’t made
    1:24:24 a feature I picked this diverse group of
    1:24:27 filmmakers gave them $7,000 and we
    1:24:29 documented them making a feature two
    1:24:31 weeks like I did you can bring one
    1:24:32 person like I had Carlos guy out of the
    1:24:35 producer and star of Mariachi bring one
    1:24:36 person be your cameraman we can be your
    1:24:38 sound guy whatever but it’s only that for
    1:24:39 the shoot and you’d have to do the
    1:24:43 whole thing and I saw those guys by the
    1:24:44 time they’re they’re like I don’t know
    1:24:45 how we’re going to make this movie by
    1:24:46 the first week of shooting they’re
    1:24:48 already talking about their next feature
    1:24:50 they became so confident because their
    1:24:52 idea of what impossible is drops really
    1:24:55 quick when you yeah anyone interested in
    1:24:57 unlocking their creativities they’re not
    1:24:58 even just filmmaking I highly recommend
    1:25:00 that show and I highly recommend the
    1:25:04 kind of the follow-on show which is
    1:25:06 where you make red 11 yes that’s the
    1:25:07 one I did so then it came time for me to
    1:25:09 do one so I made a movie called red 11
    1:25:11 based on my experiences in the medical
    1:25:14 hospital but I’ll turn it into a sci-fi
    1:25:15 thriller just to use that as so that I
    1:25:18 can use like somebody getting stabbed in
    1:25:19 the eye so I can still gonna have more
    1:25:21 elements to show how you can do camera
    1:25:23 tricks and stuff with no money and the
    1:25:24 old days make it for less than seven
    1:25:26 thousand dollars which I think we’re
    1:25:28 like five thousand dollars many because
    1:25:29 you know had a lot of actors I wanted
    1:25:32 to pay but the movie itself can make it
    1:25:34 for nothing but I brought my son aboard
    1:25:36 as my number one who hadn’t been
    1:25:38 working with me in a while I mean he
    1:25:39 wrote Sharkboy and Lava Girl when he was
    1:25:40 seven but then he hadn’t really been
    1:25:42 working on my crew so he didn’t know
    1:25:44 how to operate the sound equipment the
    1:25:45 separate sound system and all that I
    1:25:47 didn’t show him until the day of
    1:25:48 filming because I knew we’re
    1:25:49 documenting it would make a better
    1:25:52 tutorial so by getting them working on
    1:25:55 the movies together they came to be
    1:25:56 super excited by the end of the day I
    1:25:57 thought for sure oh they’re gonna hate
    1:25:59 this even though it’s only two weeks
    1:26:01 they’ve got other interests they don’t
    1:26:03 want to be filmmakers I thought they
    1:26:05 were gonna be like all right I’m out
    1:26:07 of here after one day but instead he
    1:26:08 came to me and his brother who acted
    1:26:12 in it and he went dad the actor didn’t
    1:26:14 show up after the first day the
    1:26:16 location didn’t match the script at all
    1:26:19 we asked you how we’re gonna solve the
    1:26:20 problems and you’re like I don’t know
    1:26:23 figure it out we thought dad stumped for
    1:26:25 once he’s he stumped finally but then by
    1:26:27 the end of the day his eyes were all
    1:26:30 white we figured it out I went oh they
    1:26:31 don’t realize this is the creative
    1:26:33 process every day is like that and in
    1:26:35 life too every day you don’t know
    1:26:37 your machine’s gonna not work or you’re
    1:26:39 gonna get a flat tire or you get fired
    1:26:43 that day so life is very unpredictable
    1:26:45 just like a movie set so I realized I’m
    1:26:47 gonna make them all work on my movies
    1:26:49 now because it’s teaching them about
    1:26:50 life I’m teaching them very little
    1:26:54 about the film make it’s about life
    1:26:55 lessons about how you take on something
    1:26:57 impossible turn chicken shit to chicken
    1:27:00 salad and make it work and that’s the
    1:27:01 strong that’s life that’s the process of
    1:27:03 life so many people say well I’m not
    1:27:05 ready to make my projects like you’re
    1:27:06 not ready for life either you’re like
    1:27:08 this all day you’re you’re dodging
    1:27:11 shit that’s going on how come art has to
    1:27:12 be perfect it’s like it should be the
    1:27:14 same life and art should be the same
    1:27:16 and I think filmmaking in general is full
    1:27:20 of unpredictable things and in a short
    1:27:22 little microcosm to within one project
    1:27:24 you got a whole blueprint for how you’re
    1:27:25 going to solve life because you’ve just
    1:27:27 done it on a creative level I think of
    1:27:29 all the art forms of all the art
    1:27:31 mediums like that it just has so many
    1:27:32 different components a lot of
    1:27:34 components to it and so like there’s so
    1:27:35 many ways to fuck things up yeah to
    1:27:38 learn from but any of the disciplines if
    1:27:40 you add those to it like I teach my
    1:27:44 actors to paint in between takes we’ll go
    1:27:46 and we’ll I’ll take a picture of them
    1:27:48 and character I show them a canvas I show
    1:27:49 them paint you don’t need to know how to
    1:27:52 paint this is to show you the brush is
    1:27:53 going to know where to go you just got
    1:27:55 to pick it up pick the colors you want
    1:27:56 no matter how crazy they are whatever
    1:27:58 speaking to you you lay it down I’ll
    1:27:59 show you some of the pictures you’re
    1:28:01 not gonna believe the masterworks these
    1:28:04 actors did like in a day they just start
    1:28:06 doing it Lady Gaga had her fingernails in
    1:28:07 there you know Josh Brolin’s doing his
    1:28:09 thing then I take a picture of them in
    1:28:10 character do a line drawing of it we
    1:28:12 project it on top and mostly it’s the
    1:28:13 painting coming through their line
    1:28:14 drawing with a little bit of their eyes
    1:28:15 painted in you’re not gonna believe
    1:28:17 these things they couldn’t believe it
    1:28:19 but it teaches them that that thing
    1:28:21 about that the creativity is gonna come
    1:28:23 through so even though they’re already
    1:28:24 acting they’re already being creative
    1:28:26 we’re already making a movie like you
    1:28:27 said that’s already a really great
    1:28:29 creative endeavor when we would sneak
    1:28:31 off and paint you could tell it’s
    1:28:33 firing a whole other part of their
    1:28:37 brain it was funny I think Josh Brolin’s
    1:28:40 girlfriend said Josh say hey my
    1:28:42 girlfriend just said she said his wife
    1:28:46 now but time are you guys doing drugs
    1:28:49 leave the set and you come back and
    1:28:51 you’re all like no we’re painting we’re
    1:28:53 painting but that makes sense that you
    1:28:54 say that because it creates when you get
    1:28:56 your creativity firing is more powerful
    1:28:58 than any drug and we would come back
    1:29:01 and and he’d be on the set going is it
    1:29:02 bad that I’m still thinking about the
    1:29:03 painting and I’m like no I think it’s
    1:29:05 good I think it’s all good but it’s you
    1:29:07 can tell it’s opening a whole other
    1:29:08 part of their creative brain so you can
    1:29:11 be doing acting in a movie and the
    1:29:12 painting’s still gonna tap it shows how
    1:29:14 much untapped potential your creative
    1:29:17 brain has so the more you can do the
    1:29:19 more you’re firing off and them and it
    1:29:21 was so cool like I remember we did one
    1:29:23 Joseph Gordon Levitt was painting we came
    1:29:24 in and the table was like this and they
    1:29:26 said we have a problem you want them to
    1:29:28 throw the cards out the playing cards out
    1:29:31 but it’s so slick they go sliding off the
    1:29:33 table and we both look at it and we both
    1:29:34 got the solution at the same time oh we
    1:29:37 just just just have them just have them
    1:29:39 throw them wherever they go and then we’ll
    1:29:43 place them and then digitally it’s even
    1:29:45 better that he looks like he gets them all
    1:29:47 perfectly laid out to show what a card
    1:29:49 shark is that’s but that’s what we have to do
    1:29:51 we’re not gonna we can’t we’ll be here
    1:29:53 all day we’re trying to get if we’re
    1:29:55 gonna worry about where they go just go
    1:29:56 bump bump bump bump bump bump and then
    1:29:58 we’ll place the cards down and everyone
    1:30:01 will pick them up and then we’ll marry
    1:30:03 the two in post you know you’re just you
    1:30:04 just come up with creative solutions
    1:30:06 better easier because you were just
    1:30:09 solving crazy creative solutions in the
    1:30:10 other one like what paint medium do I
    1:30:12 use what kind of gel am I gonna use so
    1:30:14 when you come back to your main job
    1:30:16 which is filmmaking you’re like oh I
    1:30:18 can figure this out in two seconds you
    1:30:19 know so it helps you creative problem
    1:30:21 solve so that basically working with my
    1:30:22 kids made me realize oh now I know
    1:30:24 exactly what I want to do for the next
    1:30:25 10 years I only want to make movies with
    1:30:27 my kids because I’m mentoring them but
    1:30:29 they’re teaching me shit because they’re
    1:30:31 the age I was when I made mariachi and
    1:30:34 desperado and their their ideas are really
    1:30:36 sharp so the mentoring goes both ways and
    1:30:38 it’s like the greatest parenting you can
    1:30:40 do because you’re building a project
    1:30:41 together and in the same boat together
    1:30:44 figuring it out and it’s family time
    1:30:45 you’re like checking all the boxes so I
    1:30:48 thought my filmmaking going forward is
    1:30:49 going to be checking all the boxes in
    1:30:51 life so I’m not not spending time with
    1:30:53 my family we’re actually giving them
    1:30:55 lessons that they can go do anything
    1:30:56 they want in life because they’re going
    1:30:58 to have different interests but now it’s
    1:30:59 kind of like going to college and this
    1:31:01 college is like the best college because
    1:31:03 it pays you to learn you get to do these
    1:31:06 crazy skills like my son is you know
    1:31:09 conducting the orchestra the James Bond
    1:31:11 orchestra in London for the spy kids score
    1:31:13 and a score he wrote because I can’t
    1:31:14 write at his level because he was always
    1:31:18 our best piano player and they get you get
    1:31:20 the charge out of working with them and
    1:31:23 then and by making a label there’s a
    1:31:26 there’s a weird phenomenon that happens if
    1:31:27 you guys want to take your game to
    1:31:30 another level I stumbled upon this idea my
    1:31:34 son that was my counterpart on that movie
    1:31:36 racer he was my sound guy like I said
    1:31:37 came up with shark point lava girl when
    1:31:40 he’s little he became my writer co-writer
    1:31:42 co-producer he’d come to me and said I want
    1:31:48 to do vr type movie I said oh let me show
    1:31:50 you as an example of creativity and
    1:31:51 manifesting I said let me show you how it
    1:31:54 works let’s let’s make a company we’ll
    1:31:57 make a company called double r double r
    1:31:58 productions because we all have double r
    1:32:00 names all the kids so if anyone ever
    1:32:01 wants to do anything we can use our
    1:32:04 company so let’s make a logo and I’ll
    1:32:05 make t-shirts and notepads and stuff
    1:32:08 because once you have a company you have
    1:32:10 now have to make things for that
    1:32:12 company just like the advice I gave to
    1:32:13 people stop aspiring make a business card
    1:32:16 that says writer director cinematographer
    1:32:18 I did editor because then now you have to
    1:32:20 conform to that identity so now if I
    1:32:22 create a label like double r we’re going
    1:32:24 to come up with ideas we’ll call up vr
    1:32:26 companies and say hey we have a company a
    1:32:28 vr company would you like us to make you a
    1:32:31 film for your soul your headset so yeah
    1:32:33 they gave us a budget they’re dying for
    1:32:35 content they gave us a budget we shot a
    1:32:37 20 minute action movie called the limit
    1:32:39 with michelle rodriguez and norman
    1:32:40 read us where you’re in an action movie
    1:32:42 with them and it was killer we they made
    1:32:45 us a big double r logo animated logo
    1:32:49 later that year we did red 11 same logo
    1:32:52 that movie went to directors fortnight and
    1:32:55 can festivals were paying us to come talk
    1:32:57 about how we made that movie that’s when
    1:32:58 we’re doing the cards throwing the cards
    1:33:01 out because they wanted their audiences
    1:33:03 they knew they would love that so we
    1:33:05 could have had a whole gig just continuing
    1:33:07 to get paid to go to the fed usually pay
    1:33:08 to feds go to feds you don’t get paid
    1:33:11 that’s how what a success that was but
    1:33:13 then we had to make we can be heroes so
    1:33:15 we had to stop but we can be heroes was
    1:33:18 a netflix movie where they asked me to
    1:33:20 make a spy kids type thing and so I
    1:33:21 thought oh okay I’ll just do it with
    1:33:24 superheroes that’s there I wrote it with
    1:33:26 my kids based it on some of their
    1:33:29 personalities it’s the most watched and
    1:33:31 re-watched movie in netflix history like
    1:33:33 nothing in touch because kids just keep
    1:33:35 watching it over because this kids with
    1:33:36 superpowers no one’s ever done that
    1:33:38 before and they can’t they couldn’t
    1:33:40 believe it like I’d heard anecdotally
    1:33:42 that’s how the spy kids people said oh
    1:33:43 that kids watch it over and over on
    1:33:45 video but you can’t keep track of that
    1:33:47 you can’t on netflix because their
    1:33:48 biggest thing is people completing a
    1:33:49 movie a lot of people don’t complete a
    1:33:51 movie and it still counts as a view they
    1:33:52 may watch five minutes and change the
    1:33:55 channel so do you complete a movie
    1:33:56 that’s really where they you know
    1:33:59 really value not only to complete but
    1:34:01 re-watched re-watched re-watched per
    1:34:02 household so many times and
    1:34:06 that one has a double r logo as well
    1:34:07 and my kids are like dad
    1:34:10 it really worked I was like I know
    1:34:12 better than I thought I didn’t know I
    1:34:14 didn’t know that me manifesting that
    1:34:16 company was gonna turn into that and
    1:34:18 we just keep making stuff so I want to
    1:34:19 do that with brass knuckle films now with
    1:34:22 the audience because it works so I said
    1:34:25 as soon as you have a logo and a
    1:34:27 company your brain starts coming up with
    1:34:29 all kinds of ideas and it’s a filter
    1:34:32 like like I said sometimes the freedom
    1:34:36 of limitations is all freeing when I
    1:34:37 had to do four rooms and it’s like we
    1:34:39 have to use one hotel room oh well then
    1:34:40 there’s gonna be a dead body there’s
    1:34:42 gonna be you can do a lot with
    1:34:43 limitations if they said you could use
    1:34:45 the whole city would have been harder to
    1:34:47 come up with something well brass
    1:34:49 knuckle films has a filter only action
    1:34:51 action movies because that’s the stuff
    1:34:54 that there’s always an appetite for if
    1:34:55 you ask Netflix right now what do you
    1:34:57 need more of they’ll say action action
    1:34:59 action we don’t have enough action the
    1:35:00 last regime didn’t leave us enough
    1:35:01 action we need action they’ll pay a
    1:35:03 premium for an action film that we can
    1:35:05 make at a lower cost a 20 million
    1:35:07 dollar action film is very cheap
    1:35:09 studios don’t know how to make them
    1:35:11 that cheap that’s why they’ll pay for an
    1:35:13 independent to go do it and right now
    1:35:14 that’s the key is to be independent
    1:35:15 because a lot of studios that can’t
    1:35:17 even green light anything things are so
    1:35:18 expensive they don’t want to lose their
    1:35:21 ass but they need action films so let’s
    1:35:23 make something that everybody needs and
    1:35:25 let’s make it at a price we’ll make it in
    1:35:26 my studio because I got my own studio
    1:35:27 and I can keep all the costs down
    1:35:29 because we have all the costumes and
    1:35:32 props and sets from 25 years of
    1:35:35 filmmaking to keep the cost down and
    1:35:37 we’ll have the audience gets to invest
    1:35:40 it’s not crowdfunding or kickstarter
    1:35:42 you’re actually an investor anyone who
    1:35:45 puts money in can pitch their idea for
    1:35:48 an action film to me and I’m gonna make
    1:35:51 one of the four films in that slate from
    1:35:52 one of those ideas because I want the
    1:35:54 audience to win I want the audience to
    1:35:55 win and be a part of it because the
    1:35:56 audience is an afterthought in
    1:35:59 Hollywood they make a movie they show
    1:36:00 the audience the movie go tell your
    1:36:02 friends now so y’all spend money on our
    1:36:04 movie where’s your cut of that so I want
    1:36:05 them to be successful so if any of the
    1:36:07 movies in the slate do well they make
    1:36:10 money off that one and then sequels or
    1:36:12 anything but they’re all gonna do well
    1:36:14 because everyone needs an action movie
    1:36:15 we’re gonna keep the cost down can I
    1:36:18 actually ask you just to focus in on
    1:36:20 action you’ve created a lot of epic
    1:36:23 action films what makes for a great
    1:36:25 action film it comes down to the
    1:36:27 character you know like if you think
    1:36:29 about what are the best action films
    1:36:31 what are your favorite films like die
    1:36:34 hard he’s a cop so he’s still capable but
    1:36:36 he’s not Superman the fact that he’s like
    1:36:38 in over his head and you’re rooting for
    1:36:41 him that’s a great character you know
    1:36:44 John Wick he is Superman but he’s retired
    1:36:47 and now he’s pissed off and he’s going
    1:36:48 back into a job you know so the care is
    1:36:50 comes down to the character really being
    1:36:52 very important because the action will
    1:36:55 then have a character to it I think
    1:36:57 Leon the professional does what’s a
    1:37:00 character I mean that’s all now that
    1:37:01 when I say we’re gonna do action movies
    1:37:02 I mean movies that are really action
    1:37:04 first like there’s some movies that are
    1:37:06 more dramas that have action where’s the
    1:37:09 boundary so John Wick is action that’s
    1:37:11 more action but it has character in it but
    1:37:13 it’s action driven what about like
    1:37:16 predator predator is the sci-fi action
    1:37:17 film so that’s kind of a hybrid which I
    1:37:19 like yeah but sometimes it’s hard for
    1:37:21 the audience to know what they’re buying
    1:37:23 into but like they focused a lot on the
    1:37:25 action in the trailer you know and then
    1:37:26 they felt there was some other worldly
    1:37:27 thing but you didn’t really know but it’s
    1:37:29 a great movie so die hard is a is a good
    1:37:31 example it was a good example right I
    1:37:32 can think of right off where there’s a
    1:37:33 character that really made the difference
    1:37:35 and then everyone repeated that you know
    1:37:37 for a while there’s like under siege
    1:37:39 I was like a regular guy who’s really
    1:37:41 actually has some training on a ship
    1:37:44 now and then on the bus you got a cop
    1:37:46 he’s a cop but he’s not super cop yeah
    1:37:47 so that’s why you root for him you know
    1:37:49 that became a an element that people
    1:37:51 repeated a lot uh what about taken that’s
    1:37:53 a great one that’s a great character who
    1:37:56 is superhuman yeah who’s also retired you
    1:37:59 know so there’s like a superhero type
    1:38:01 character in an extraordinary circumstance
    1:38:03 like that’s now his daughter’s taken
    1:38:06 right and then there’s ordinary people like
    1:38:08 the Terminator that’s a great character not
    1:38:09 the Terminator he’s a villain but Sarah
    1:38:12 Connor who is a waitress doesn’t think
    1:38:14 her life’s going anywhere and she finds
    1:38:15 out she’s the mother of the guy who’s
    1:38:19 going to save the human race and she’s
    1:38:20 got to train him you know suddenly she
    1:38:21 has to become someone else those are
    1:38:23 cool movies because it’s a genesis of a
    1:38:26 character and you see a character go from
    1:38:29 waitress to revolutionary step up yeah
    1:38:32 what about mob movies I mean some of
    1:38:33 them like Godfather is really not about
    1:38:35 it’s not actually not an action movie
    1:38:37 drama that has some action right I mean
    1:38:39 John Wick is a mob film in some sense
    1:38:40 Goodfellas I mean there’s a lot of
    1:38:43 dynamic action but there’s really not
    1:38:44 action first that’s really a character
    1:38:47 type piece great freaking amazing and it
    1:38:49 feels like action by the way he does it
    1:38:51 it’s just like that it’s like fast pace
    1:38:54 fast talking fast moving like escape from
    1:38:55 New York’s one of my favorites since I was
    1:38:58 a kid because every movie you’ll notice
    1:39:00 this now that I tell you even like a
    1:39:03 romantic comedy there’s a timeline every
    1:39:05 movie has to have like a ticking clock so
    1:39:06 the audience knows the stories are not
    1:39:08 just going to take over a period of years
    1:39:09 though suddenly someone in the movie
    1:39:13 around 20 or 30 minutes in will say we’ve
    1:39:16 got to go find the groom before the
    1:39:17 wedding this weekend you know it’ll be
    1:39:19 just like that escape New York has the
    1:39:21 best example of a ticking time clock
    1:39:23 because he’s literally got bombs in his
    1:39:25 neck and he’s got a watch that shows
    1:39:27 him he’s constantly clocking it how
    1:39:29 little time he has and he gets you so
    1:39:32 like oh my god is he gonna make it that’s
    1:39:34 like the best use of that and no one’s
    1:39:37 ever top that ticking time clock all the
    1:39:39 other ones seem artificial in comparison
    1:39:42 you know aliens you know we got to get
    1:39:44 off this planet now because this whole
    1:39:47 thing’s gonna blow up you know they like
    1:39:48 there’s a timeline you’re it’s already
    1:39:50 urgent enough but now there’s an extra
    1:39:52 timeline on it yeah this is what happens
    1:39:54 you mean as you’re talking you’re just
    1:39:56 making me fall in love more and more with
    1:39:59 action films I I sometimes you forget how
    1:40:01 much you love actually a really good action
    1:40:04 film yeah fact like the Terminator the
    1:40:06 original Terminator just came out in 4k
    1:40:07 I’m watching it again it looks like
    1:40:08 better than most movies look today and
    1:40:10 that’s a four million dollar movie it
    1:40:12 looks incredible you can see every beat
    1:40:15 of sweat in this movie I was watching it
    1:40:17 again with somebody a female and there’s
    1:40:19 always a point when you’re watching that
    1:40:22 movie where she’ll turn and say I love
    1:40:25 this movie you know a point that is it’s
    1:40:28 a point where Michael Bean tells her I
    1:40:30 came across time for you Sarah I love
    1:40:33 you which is you know I always have and
    1:40:34 you’re just like oh my god there’s like a
    1:40:37 real emotional love story there that he
    1:40:39 put into Titanic that he put into
    1:40:43 Avatar he figured out that thing that
    1:40:44 makes those movies work by the way I
    1:40:47 should say that I mean there is an
    1:40:50 aspect of El Mirachi that is a love
    1:40:52 story to me yeah there was a rough I
    1:40:53 don’t know you see it that way but I got
    1:40:56 when I yeah just rewatched it I was a
    1:40:57 tragic love story but I was like
    1:40:59 heartbroken that she’s dead I got
    1:41:01 heartbroken twice let me tell you the
    1:41:03 second time and I haven’t one that you’re
    1:41:04 making that and you go okay this is how
    1:41:05 it has to go but then now you’re
    1:41:06 invested in this person you go man she
    1:41:08 has to die it’s gonna be really sad in
    1:41:11 fact the studio even when they said
    1:41:13 they were gonna remake it a good thing I
    1:41:15 put that ending on that’s the only
    1:41:17 reason they showed it to an audience we
    1:41:18 were gonna remake it they weren’t gonna
    1:41:21 put that movie out they showed it said
    1:41:22 we need to show this movie to an
    1:41:24 audience because they might not like the
    1:41:26 fact that we kill the girl before we
    1:41:28 remake it all right it showed to an
    1:41:29 audience audience liked it the way it
    1:41:31 was so they said we’re gonna take this
    1:41:33 movie to some film festivals and I was
    1:41:36 like no not this movie this is my
    1:41:38 practice movie no one’s supposed to see
    1:41:40 this movie yeah and they go no no that
    1:41:42 you got something no no dude if I knew
    1:41:43 anyone was gonna see this I would have
    1:41:44 shot it completely give me two
    1:41:46 thousand dollars I’ll go reshoot half
    1:41:48 of it just knowing people are gonna see
    1:41:49 it I want something and the head of the
    1:41:51 studio is really smart he said um you
    1:41:52 don’t know what you have here it’s
    1:41:53 there’s something real special let’s
    1:41:54 just take it tell you right see what
    1:41:56 happened tell you right Toronto did
    1:41:59 great like I said in one Sundance so now
    1:42:01 we had to put it out but I was like I
    1:42:03 would have said don’t show that movie
    1:42:06 but they also questioned the ending and
    1:42:07 didn’t come into play because we ended
    1:42:09 up making Desperado and the girl in
    1:42:10 Desperado doesn’t die you know we
    1:42:11 didn’t do that we didn’t kill Salma
    1:42:13 but that’s what needed to happen to
    1:42:15 Mariachi I’m quitting call me one time
    1:42:17 people would always say like oh
    1:42:19 Reservoir Dogs he he borrowed from this
    1:42:21 movie Hong Kong action film called City
    1:42:23 on Fire about these guys they’re all
    1:42:24 criminals and they kill each other
    1:42:27 whatever and he said hey they’re
    1:42:28 showing a double feature called East
    1:42:30 Looks West and West Looks East they’re
    1:42:32 showing Reservoir Dogs with City on
    1:42:34 Fire the one they say I borrowed from and
    1:42:37 they’re showing Mariachi with a Hong Kong
    1:42:39 film called Run where they ripped off
    1:42:40 Mariachi like they just took the whole
    1:42:42 story it had two you know Chinese
    1:42:44 actors in Mexico with the guitar cases
    1:42:46 ones like they just followed it beat by
    1:42:49 beat so we’re watching it and it was
    1:42:50 like scene by scene they just they
    1:42:52 just rebate it without even getting the
    1:42:54 rights or anything it was so fun to
    1:42:55 watch so we saw Mariachi first then we
    1:42:57 watched that one and I’m like what’s
    1:42:59 this big brothel scene though this is in
    1:43:02 my movie oh the back oh there’s a scene
    1:43:04 in my movie where the bad guy has two
    1:43:05 girls in bed with him and they figured
    1:43:07 that was a whorehouse but it was just
    1:43:08 this apartment yeah so they got this
    1:43:10 whorehouse and they’re reinterpreted
    1:43:13 and they have helicopter shots and all
    1:43:14 kinds of big thing and the action was
    1:43:17 awesome yeah but then and the girl’s
    1:43:18 really good and then midway through the
    1:43:20 movie I’m like oh shit she’s gonna die
    1:43:23 because I killed her in mine I don’t want
    1:43:25 her to die I like this actress is really
    1:43:26 great and they have a really great love
    1:43:28 story I go I hope they change that part
    1:43:31 no they kill her so I felt bad twice
    1:43:34 because I sealed I feel I sealed her fate
    1:43:37 I sealed her fate because yeah I have a
    1:43:39 line in spite kids too because I started
    1:43:41 thinking when you create stuff you start
    1:43:44 thinking I wonder if that’s how our
    1:43:47 creator is he’s like oh shit I just kind
    1:43:49 of threw that in a memo and now that
    1:43:52 whole town’s gonna get wiped out yeah you
    1:43:53 know I didn’t even think about the
    1:43:56 implications of that because there’s a
    1:43:59 line I was making a character that
    1:44:01 Steve Buscemi plays in spy kids too and
    1:44:02 he’s a creator he just wanted to make a
    1:44:06 little miniature zoo for kids and then he
    1:44:07 thought well what if I put some together
    1:44:11 like a lizard with a snake and it’s a
    1:44:13 slizzard or you have a spider monkey
    1:44:15 which is like literally spider legs and a
    1:44:18 monkey top so he makes that and then he
    1:44:20 thought hey why don’t I make make him a
    1:44:21 little bit bigger for kids that have big
    1:44:24 hands and it got out of control and they
    1:44:25 turn into these huge creatures and now
    1:44:28 they’re trying to eat him so he’s hiding
    1:44:30 the kids find him hiding and he says this
    1:44:32 one line that people keep coming it’s on
    1:44:34 the internet a lot this meme about this
    1:44:37 why is this line this movie it’s so
    1:44:40 wild I thought I wanted Steve to come
    1:44:42 up to the camera and like he’s just he’s
    1:44:45 lost in his own creative world and he
    1:44:48 says I can’t even go outside because my
    1:44:50 own creations are gonna eat me then he
    1:44:52 comes up to the camera he goes do you
    1:44:54 think God hides in heaven because he too
    1:44:57 lives in fear of what he created here on
    1:45:00 earth it’s like really just for a moment
    1:45:02 this thing and it’s like because you feel
    1:45:03 like that way when you’re when you’re
    1:45:05 creating stuff like you’re creating
    1:45:06 something and then now it’s taking on a
    1:45:08 life on its own and like oh no now this
    1:45:09 character has to die I didn’t want that
    1:45:11 you know this this domino effect of
    1:45:14 creation and you start thinking well
    1:45:16 that must be what creation maybe he is
    1:45:18 hiding up there because look at he didn’t
    1:45:20 expect all this shit to happen giving us
    1:45:23 free will and all that I mean this
    1:45:25 particular context that you are the
    1:45:27 creator of the story and it for some
    1:45:29 reason makes me feel good to know that
    1:45:30 you feel the pain of this character
    1:45:33 dying yeah absolutely because like if
    1:45:36 I’m I’m writing it but if it’s not
    1:45:38 coming from me I’m as surprised
    1:45:41 sometimes and Quentin would say that you
    1:45:41 know he’d say you just get two
    1:45:43 characters talking when I’m writing my
    1:45:45 script and then suddenly they’re just
    1:45:46 talking to each other and I was like
    1:45:47 what does that mean and now I know what
    1:45:49 that means it’s like he just gave them
    1:45:52 life and now now the dialogue’s coming
    1:45:54 through him let me just ask you you’re
    1:45:56 the perfect person to ask about the
    1:45:58 genius of Quentin Tarantino what makes
    1:45:59 him special as a director as a creative
    1:46:03 mind what do you see in him that’s
    1:46:04 beautiful that’s brilliant
    1:46:08 since I met him he was just like this
    1:46:15 brilliant ball of energy and you know
    1:46:17 like if you see him I walk around his
    1:46:20 house and I’ll see like a few sheets of
    1:46:22 paper all handwritten out like what’s
    1:46:24 that he goes oh that was something I was
    1:46:25 starting to write and I you know not
    1:46:28 going to finish I’m like can I take
    1:46:31 these and go turn it into like a whole
    1:46:33 trilogy of films you know like what he
    1:46:34 throws away all this mortal men would
    1:46:37 kill for you meet people like that I tell
    1:46:40 people you know your parents say watch
    1:46:42 out who your peers are you know when
    1:46:43 you’re younger that means one thing but
    1:46:45 once you get older surround yourself
    1:46:48 around people who swing much farther than
    1:46:50 you you know that’s just like but that’s
    1:46:54 really true I mean just by being around
    1:46:57 him and working with him you get by
    1:47:00 osmosis you learn stuff and it just ups
    1:47:02 your game because they’re just swing way
    1:47:05 beyond you Jim Cameron was like that so
    1:47:06 like when I first met him I was trying
    1:47:07 to impress the hell out of him you know
    1:47:09 because I was such a big fan I was about
    1:47:11 to go do the Esperado and I went hey I
    1:47:12 just took a three-day Steadicam course
    1:47:14 because I can’t afford a Steadicam
    1:47:15 operator so I’m gonna operate Steadicam
    1:47:18 myself on Desperado now if he was just my
    1:47:20 peer he’d say oh I did the same thing
    1:47:22 and I’m gonna do the same thing that that
    1:47:23 would be like hanging out with somebody
    1:47:25 of your ilk but you don’t you want
    1:47:26 somebody who’s above that you know what
    1:47:29 he said he goes I bought a Steadicam but
    1:47:31 not to operate it I’m gonna take it apart
    1:47:35 and design a better one us mere mortals
    1:47:37 trying to learn how to operate the camera
    1:47:40 he’s designing all new systems that’s the
    1:47:41 guy you want to hang out with not
    1:47:42 someone who’s doing what you’re doing
    1:47:45 so surround yourself by those kind of
    1:47:46 people and that’s when you learn things
    1:47:48 like don’t blink you know like somebody
    1:47:51 who’s like really swinging for the fences
    1:47:53 and accomplishing so much and Quentin was
    1:47:56 like that so I met him at the festivals
    1:47:59 he saw Mariachi he loved it we came up we
    1:48:00 talked and he said you don’t like my next
    1:48:01 film I’m writing right now Pulp Fiction
    1:48:05 so I thought man I’m gonna put this guy
    1:48:06 he’s so he’s so fun I’m gonna put him in
    1:48:08 I’m gonna write him in my Desperado
    1:48:09 script which I was writing so that was
    1:48:11 before Pulp Fiction and all that when I
    1:48:13 cast him I didn’t know he was gonna go
    1:48:15 become such a household name I just was
    1:48:17 drawn to his energy and I’d already
    1:48:19 written him in and I met Steve Buscemi
    1:48:21 there and I was like I’m writing a
    1:48:22 character for Steve Buscemi but then I
    1:48:24 went back to the Sony lot where I was
    1:48:26 working on Desperado and Quentin and I
    1:48:28 ended up having offices right next to
    1:48:29 each other on the Sony lot by accident
    1:48:31 I didn’t even know that I just met him
    1:48:33 and I go back and he just because
    1:48:35 originally Pulp Fiction was for TriStar
    1:48:37 because Danny DeVito was a producer and
    1:48:38 he was gonna make it for TriStar so he
    1:48:40 was there writing Pulp Fiction and I
    1:48:42 was writing Desperado so I’d go show
    1:48:43 him like storyboards from Desperado
    1:48:45 he’d come act out scenes of Pulp
    1:48:47 Fiction and we got to be really good
    1:48:48 friends that way we’d go eat lunch at
    1:48:51 Versailles across the street the Sony
    1:48:55 lot and then Sony passed on Pulp
    1:48:58 Fiction it’s too weird too long eight
    1:49:01 million dollar movie or seven million
    1:49:02 they’re like yeah we’re gonna go make
    1:49:03 the next Pauly Shore movie instead you
    1:49:04 know like we don’t understand this
    1:49:07 thing and Miramax got it and they’d
    1:49:08 just been bought by Disney so they
    1:49:09 produced their first film was Pulp
    1:49:11 Fiction and so and then that thing
    1:49:13 went to Cannes and it was a whole
    1:49:17 thing but what I loved about his story
    1:49:20 is that when he made Pulp Fiction he
    1:49:22 had a director screening he showed it to
    1:49:23 some directors and I wasn’t able to go
    1:49:25 but anyway I had dinner with him once
    1:49:26 and it was in my journal because I keep
    1:49:29 a journal at 2 40 a.m. when after he
    1:49:31 had dropped I dropped him off at his
    1:49:33 house I said oh wait how did your movie
    1:49:35 come out you know Pulp Fiction he
    1:49:38 just finished it anyway it’s still still
    1:49:40 feels like a movie Quentin would make
    1:49:42 doesn’t feel like a real movie and I was
    1:49:45 like that’s fine what does it mean it
    1:49:46 feels like one of those movies I would
    1:49:48 make like Reservoir Dogs and it doesn’t
    1:49:50 feel like a real movie and I was trying
    1:49:51 to be the supportive friend going oh man
    1:49:53 he was so excited about this movie now
    1:49:55 he’s bummed about it and I was like
    1:49:57 well it should be different should be
    1:50:01 like he’s like wouldn’t have it drove
    1:50:02 off so I don’t know I guess that wasn’t
    1:50:04 the one so I went home and I called some
    1:50:05 of the directors that were at the
    1:50:07 screening and they go yeah this isn’t
    1:50:09 the one for him it’s not they had none
    1:50:12 of them saw it none of them saw it but
    1:50:13 that I know you’re like surprised yeah
    1:50:15 but that happened with George Lucas too
    1:50:18 with Star Wars everybody saw that movie
    1:50:19 and was like poor George they showed it
    1:50:21 to all his director friends for George
    1:50:22 what he’s wasting all this time with
    1:50:24 this for only Spielberg was the one who
    1:50:26 said it’s naive and it’s gonna do
    1:50:28 really good because it’s naive and kids
    1:50:30 will like it but everyone else was like
    1:50:32 what’s he doing we’re artists we’re
    1:50:33 making our film what’s he doing this
    1:50:35 garbage for because nobody knows it shows
    1:50:37 no one knows anything not even the
    1:50:38 filmmaker when you’re being
    1:50:39 groundbreaking you don’t know what
    1:50:41 groundbreaking is not you or anyone
    1:50:43 around you except maybe one or two
    1:50:44 people so he said there’s one person
    1:50:46 like oh yeah who is your Spielberg
    1:50:48 goes Catherine Bigelow without a doubt
    1:50:50 she’s the only one who said there’s
    1:50:51 something here no one else was seen
    1:50:53 was saying that he said in fact because
    1:50:55 he remembered suddenly he’d forgotten
    1:50:57 the story but it wasn’t in my journal I
    1:50:59 would have forgot it too because in fact
    1:51:01 one of my friends Simon said I want to
    1:51:03 sit you down and tell you all the
    1:51:04 things that are wrong with your movie
    1:51:06 but I’ll wait till you get back from the
    1:51:08 Cannes Film Festival and he goes and he
    1:51:09 wins the Palme d’Or then his friend’s
    1:51:11 like oh what the hell do I know I’ve only
    1:51:12 made one movie myself so I never mind I
    1:51:15 guess I guess we’re all wrong so even he
    1:51:17 didn’t expect that at all so that was a
    1:51:21 shock you know even to him so think
    1:51:23 about that yeah that means what do you
    1:51:25 do commit to a body of work just do that
    1:51:27 you don’t know you don’t know what’s
    1:51:28 gonna be a Pulp Fiction what’s gonna be
    1:51:30 a Jackie Brown what’s gonna be you know
    1:51:32 you don’t know and they and you’d like
    1:51:34 to think they know but they don’t know
    1:51:35 either they feel it like I asked Jim
    1:51:37 Cameron I said do you see your movie
    1:51:40 really clearly like can you see it like
    1:51:42 with hyper focus because it seems like
    1:51:45 that he goes it’s like really far it’s
    1:51:47 out of focus as you work on it you work
    1:51:49 on it starts coming that’s okay good so
    1:51:51 that’s that’s normal I thought maybe he
    1:51:53 had laser vision or something but no even
    1:51:55 him he doesn’t really know but he feels
    1:51:57 that he can make decisions and he
    1:52:00 understands what a creative drive is and
    1:52:02 how to just keep being relentless about
    1:52:04 it but it’s not like they have all the
    1:52:11 proximity is huge proximity will change
    1:52:13 your life did for me just being around
    1:52:16 those guys they didn’t teach me hey I’m
    1:52:17 gonna teach you how to make a movie just
    1:52:19 being next to them being in their world
    1:52:23 just ups your game and you just you’re
    1:52:24 able to do things you weren’t able to do
    1:52:26 before you get ideas you didn’t get to do
    1:52:28 before I did I’ll show you uh one of my
    1:52:31 painting things you’re not gonna believe
    1:52:33 this freaking thing I had a painter friend
    1:52:36 in Germany Sebastian Kruger he gives a
    1:52:38 workshop once a year that I’m gonna go
    1:52:40 there and I bet I’ll learn more about
    1:52:42 directing by watching this guy paint than I
    1:52:44 will by watching another director because
    1:52:45 that’s just now I know how creativity
    1:52:48 works you’re gonna learn lessons outside
    1:52:51 of the box by doing that and I try to
    1:52:53 practice before going out there I was
    1:52:54 doing a Danny Trejo I’ll show you the
    1:52:55 before and after you’re not gonna
    1:52:57 freaking believe what you see but this is
    1:53:00 a it really tells a story of how
    1:53:03 important proximity is so I’m I do this
    1:53:06 painting it’s like ah it looks garbage I’ll
    1:53:08 show you it looks like garbage I’m not
    1:53:11 used I can’t do paintings that are just
    1:53:13 like see I never should say I can’t you
    1:53:15 just cut your leg off but I couldn’t at
    1:53:18 the time paint just paintbrush into paint
    1:53:19 and then right on the canvas like that
    1:53:22 without using some kind of medium which
    1:53:24 this guy Sebastian Kruger would do so
    1:53:26 first I did a digital painting of Danny
    1:53:28 Trejo like just to get the framing and
    1:53:30 all that and then I created that’s just
    1:53:31 like that’s like on a Wacom tablet but
    1:53:33 then I did it with paint and it’s like
    1:53:35 oh it’s all cruddy and it’s too thick
    1:53:38 the paint and it just looks it looks and I
    1:53:40 just gave up right away I went I was
    1:53:41 trying to pre-practice I wouldn’t be a
    1:53:43 total buffoon there because I was going
    1:53:45 the next week and I thought he’s using a
    1:53:47 different brush obviously he’s using a
    1:53:49 better paint the stuff just is clogging
    1:53:51 up and it’s crap I’m sure when I get
    1:53:54 there so I get there and he’s doing a
    1:53:57 Mick Jagger and he starts with a mid
    1:53:59 tone he starts blocking in the face with
    1:54:01 a little tiny drawing of where the face
    1:54:04 goes he starts doing that he starts
    1:54:06 adding some highlights there’s the photo
    1:54:09 his reference and I’m like why why you
    1:54:12 why are you concentrating so much on the
    1:54:15 cheek first and he’s like Stefan every
    1:54:19 time and go why do you what what paints
    1:54:21 are you using and he’s like it was
    1:54:23 regular acrylic paint what brushes do you
    1:54:25 have regular brushes I’m like how come
    1:54:27 mine doesn’t look like yours let me try
    1:54:29 what he’s doing I mean you start with a
    1:54:30 midtone I’m gonna do that Danny again
    1:54:32 yeah start with a midtone I’ll start
    1:54:36 adding some highlights and I did that and
    1:54:38 everybody kept coming over going like did
    1:54:39 you just do that and I was like yeah I
    1:54:41 don’t know how but it’s very cartoony
    1:54:44 still he’s doing a very realistic Mick
    1:54:49 Jagger look how real that is and you’re
    1:54:50 just watching and he doesn’t teach you
    1:54:54 anything so he just starts painting so
    1:54:55 this is the photo he had as a reference
    1:54:59 but then this is his painting right yeah
    1:55:01 because I’m there he’s not teaching you
    1:55:03 how to paint through osmosis you’re like
    1:55:05 learning somehow you’re seeing there isn’t
    1:55:07 a trick yeah I thought he had a trick and
    1:55:10 that’s why I couldn’t get any further he’s
    1:55:11 using the same brush and the same paint
    1:55:14 well how come I can’t do that and you go
    1:55:15 you do it I’m gonna try and do something
    1:55:17 realistic I’ve never done realistic before
    1:55:19 because I’m a cartoonist and everything I
    1:55:21 was cartoony and that was just easier
    1:55:24 for me because I thought I would need too
    1:55:26 much training I did another trejo I
    1:55:28 started doing a realistic I finished out
    1:55:31 just one section of his face and put the
    1:55:33 pen down because I did that yeah the same
    1:55:36 day nice I got out of my way because
    1:55:40 seeing him get out of his own way I think
    1:55:42 that’s why sometimes people need to go to
    1:55:44 school for stuff like that because then
    1:55:46 now well I just did four years of school so
    1:55:48 now I must know now you’re giving yourself
    1:55:50 permission but you could give yourself
    1:55:51 permission right away and it’s gonna come
    1:55:53 through and drawing Danny Trejo of all
    1:55:55 people it’s like there’s so much going on
    1:55:57 there it’s like he’s so expressive
    1:56:00 I mean you’ve worked with him a lot and
    1:56:03 you’ve I mean he’s one of those badass
    1:56:05 humans on the screen you’ve created
    1:56:07 that can you just talk about what it’s
    1:56:10 like creating those characters what was
    1:56:12 exciting about desperados I went to go
    1:56:14 make it and there were no Latin actors
    1:56:15 working in Hollywood because no one was
    1:56:17 creating roles for them so I thought wow I
    1:56:20 gotta go create my own stars we’ll bring
    1:56:22 Antonio from Europe because they kind of
    1:56:25 know his name from the Almodovar movies and
    1:56:27 I saw him in tie me up tie me down when I
    1:56:29 was in the hospital riding mariachi we’re
    1:56:32 watching TV while I was a patient and
    1:56:34 there’s a scene where he like headbutts
    1:56:36 Victoria Abril you know he just like
    1:56:38 gives her headbutt he goes like that I
    1:56:40 was like whoa I bet that guy would want
    1:56:42 to be in an action movie he’s got
    1:56:43 something inside so I called him when
    1:56:45 we were doing desperado and I said would
    1:56:47 you ever consider doing an action oh man
    1:56:50 I’d love to do action so I said I got a
    1:56:51 movie for you I got a movie for you it was
    1:56:56 sequel to mariachi and so Salma I found
    1:56:59 Mexico television you know doing she
    1:57:01 couldn’t get work in the US because of
    1:57:04 the roles in her I mean this is one of the
    1:57:05 greatest actors in the world one of the
    1:57:07 best stories I was really determined to
    1:57:10 hire a real Latin especially Hispanic and
    1:57:12 then she’s Mexican actress to be the
    1:57:15 Mexican character that’s like as
    1:57:16 authentic as you can get and there was
    1:57:18 no one who was getting any jobs because
    1:57:20 no one was creating any so there was no
    1:57:21 one that had any movies be under their
    1:57:23 name because there was no one it was a
    1:57:25 whole systemic problem right this was
    1:57:31 94 93 so I was watching a Paul Rodriguez
    1:57:34 show on Univision because he I was trying
    1:57:36 to practice my Spanish because I was
    1:57:37 having to do all these Spanish interviews
    1:57:38 because mariachi was in Spanish that was
    1:57:40 the other part I didn’t tell you I didn’t
    1:57:42 speak Spanish when I made that movie we
    1:57:44 didn’t grow up with it so I never I left
    1:57:46 that part out of the mariachi story
    1:57:47 because I thought people already didn’t
    1:57:49 believe I made the movie by myself they
    1:57:50 knew I made it in a language I didn’t
    1:57:52 speak I should have said it because it’d be
    1:57:55 even more inspiring like now you have no
    1:57:57 excuse yeah I would wrote the English
    1:57:59 subtitles basically yeah I wrote the
    1:58:02 titles what became the subtitles and then
    1:58:04 we take it to the actors and the actor
    1:58:07 would translate it for me and I was like
    1:58:09 that is so inspiring I’d be like holy I
    1:58:11 would try to speak Spanish and say vamos a
    1:58:13 recordar like let’s record and they’d be
    1:58:15 looking at me like that means let’s
    1:58:18 remember the record doesn’t mean record
    1:58:20 that means can I’m out now I know back
    1:58:23 that I know so I’m watching Univision and
    1:58:26 then there’s Salma as a guest and she’s a
    1:58:29 big soap star down there in Mexico and she
    1:58:30 comes out she’s beautiful she’s funny
    1:58:32 everyone’s laughing she’s Salma everyone
    1:58:35 that we know now and she starts talking
    1:58:37 about you know what I gather from what
    1:58:39 she’s saying that she’s having trouble
    1:58:40 finding any work in the U.S. because of
    1:58:41 her accent and then
    1:58:44 Barbara Juga said well say something in
    1:58:45 English and then she says then she
    1:58:47 sounds just like she does now and he
    1:58:49 goes that’s great she goes I know I know
    1:58:52 and I went I think this is the girl so I
    1:58:54 called her in my office and I videotaped
    1:58:56 our first meeting together so I have that
    1:58:58 somewhere that’s awesome telling me about
    1:59:01 it’s Salma it’s Salma yeah her with her
    1:59:04 energy with her passion is funny she
    1:59:05 became instant friends with my wife you
    1:59:07 know before they walked over your wife
    1:59:08 and I are best friends she already was
    1:59:10 like part of the family she’s godmother to
    1:59:15 my kids and I thought I’m gonna help you
    1:59:16 you’re gonna help me I need to have a
    1:59:18 Mexican actress in this and you’re gonna
    1:59:20 be phenomenal the studio didn’t see it
    1:59:23 they were like what she hasn’t done
    1:59:24 anything why don’t you just hire somebody
    1:59:28 else who you know already has a name so
    1:59:30 if we just give her one movie then she’ll
    1:59:31 be someone who’s in a movie and then you
    1:59:33 can keep casting so I made a whole other
    1:59:35 movie with her in English called Road
    1:59:36 Racers it was my second film for Showtime
    1:59:39 really cool little rebel without a cause
    1:59:42 type movie and she’s and I gave her a role
    1:59:43 and that’s we have an example of her doing
    1:59:46 English and they still were like we need
    1:59:48 a screen test we need to have a screen
    1:59:51 test with a bunch of other actresses you
    1:59:54 know so I said sure let’s do that so I
    1:59:55 went over to her house the night before
    2:00:00 before the screen test and we worked on the
    2:00:02 scene which is the best scene where she’s
    2:00:04 operating on his arm and they’ve got all
    2:00:05 this chemistry and I was just directing her
    2:00:08 through it like completely down to when you
    2:00:09 pick up the water and you hand him the
    2:00:12 water don’t scream oh hot water just be
    2:00:14 like hot water and while he’s spitting it
    2:00:15 out and it’s gonna be a big dramatic
    2:00:18 action with like a very light delivery and
    2:00:20 so we got it down to a science the next
    2:00:23 day we show up Antonio does a scene with
    2:00:26 all the girls come in he does it with her
    2:00:31 clearly they’ve got amazing chemistry she
    2:00:34 just nails it he’s great he loves her too
    2:00:38 studios like okay you can hire reluctantly
    2:00:41 like that right but once they saw the
    2:00:43 footage come as we’re shooting and they
    2:00:44 saw it on the big screen when they’re
    2:00:46 watching the dailies then they were like
    2:00:49 oh my god then they saw it then they saw
    2:00:51 what I saw when I met her but they it
    2:00:53 sometimes you like you say what do you do
    2:00:55 when people are like hey why come you’re
    2:00:57 using this just know that not everyone’s
    2:00:59 gonna see it you may have the only vision
    2:01:02 just keep going there’s an instinct that
    2:01:04 tells you to keep going that way you’ll
    2:01:05 get proved right or wrong or maybe you’re
    2:01:07 slipping on the first two rocks or
    2:01:09 whatever but follow your instinct because
    2:01:11 you can everyone’s going to have an
    2:01:13 opinion and it’s not necessarily the right
    2:01:14 one and when you’re an independent
    2:01:17 filmmaker you can make those decisions
    2:01:19 to change people’s career that changes the
    2:01:21 world and that’s why you want to remain
    2:01:23 independent that’s why what’s happening
    2:01:25 now in the industry is great because I
    2:01:27 have to make movies like the way I started
    2:01:29 which is what I’ve always liked to do
    2:01:31 which is just doing it where we create
    2:01:32 our own destiny we go hey we’re going to
    2:01:33 make a movie we’re going to make it for
    2:01:35 this budget so we can make it and the
    2:01:37 story is going to be so character driven
    2:01:38 and cool we’re going to get big actors to
    2:01:39 be in it because they’re going to want to
    2:01:41 be in it so Danny Trejo you asked me about
    2:01:43 Danny Trejo yes yes yes yes okay Danny
    2:01:46 Trejo we’re doing Desperado now I’m
    2:01:48 casting all kinds of people now I have
    2:01:49 this character that I want to have a
    2:01:51 bunch of knives he opens up his vest and
    2:01:54 there’s a bunch of knives so bring me all
    2:01:55 the coolest looking you know Latin
    2:01:58 actors we can find and before he even
    2:02:00 walked in there’s a picture of him he
    2:02:02 already looked like the guy but he was
    2:02:04 younger he always just played prison
    2:02:06 inmates it was a picture of him as an
    2:02:08 inmate in a prison I want to give him a
    2:02:09 cool role you know this wherever this
    2:02:11 actor is he walks in and I see him
    2:02:14 Danny Trejo he sits down and I had the
    2:02:17 prop knife already made and I say you
    2:02:19 need to have this in your hand and look
    2:02:21 like you sleep with it like just practice
    2:02:23 flipping it around your hand and I gave
    2:02:25 it to him you got the role just start
    2:02:26 practicing with that he gets up and
    2:02:27 walks out you don’t have to say anything
    2:02:31 there’s no dialogue he walks out we get
    2:02:33 to the set he kept saying put me a coach
    2:02:35 give me a line give me a line say no no
    2:02:36 you’re such a nice guy you’re gonna blow
    2:02:37 the whole mystique I want this guy to
    2:02:40 feel like the most evil scary guy of all
    2:02:42 and you’re such a nice guy I didn’t let
    2:02:44 him talk till dusk till dawn but one thing
    2:02:47 I noticed was that the town we’re shot in
    2:02:49 the Mexican town which is the same town I
    2:02:51 shot Mariachi we went back there because
    2:02:53 I wanted to pay back the city and so we
    2:02:56 had this big movie there and they didn’t
    2:02:58 really know Antonio because he was in
    2:03:00 European movies Salma hadn’t come to the
    2:03:02 set yet but they saw Danny Trejo there in
    2:03:05 his vest looking like a Mexican icon they
    2:03:08 would go like this everyone thought he
    2:03:12 was the star and I just know magnetism when
    2:03:14 I see it and I went this guy’s got
    2:03:17 something so I went to him and I said I
    2:03:19 got a movie we’re gonna do someday this
    2:03:21 was 94 we didn’t make this movie for 15
    2:03:26 years machete you’re gonna be machete I
    2:03:28 had I had an idea for machete then it
    2:03:30 wasn’t the same story I’d seen a story
    2:03:33 actually Mariachi there a guy from our
    2:03:34 send me this funny story say hey look at
    2:03:39 this story that the USDA and FBI sometimes
    2:03:41 would hire a Mexican federale to come do a
    2:03:43 job for 25 grand that they didn’t want to
    2:03:46 get their own guys killed on I said that’s
    2:03:50 machete the guy that they pay but he’s not
    2:03:51 doing it for the money it turns out he
    2:03:53 has to get this guy that escaped Mexico
    2:03:55 and that’s the twist so that was the
    2:03:56 original story I had so we’re gonna do
    2:03:58 this someday and we talked about it for
    2:04:00 years and never did it never had it got
    2:04:02 around to doing it so when I did spy kids
    2:04:05 I put him in spy kids and I said hey
    2:04:06 let’s pay tribute to that character we
    2:04:08 never got to make and you’ll be uncle
    2:04:10 machete he’s a gadget guy but he’s got a
    2:04:13 mysterious past but then a few years
    2:04:14 later Quentin and I were doing grindhouse
    2:04:17 and he’d already done industrial dom with
    2:04:19 me you know I was building my own Latin
    2:04:21 star system Salma showed up in a bunch of
    2:04:22 my movies Cheech shows up in every movie
    2:04:24 Danny shows up there I brought Cheech out
    2:04:26 of retirement put him in my movie I needed
    2:04:28 to create my own Latin star system because
    2:04:29 all my scripts because when you write in
    2:04:31 your own voice you’re gonna write
    2:04:33 probably somebody that’s Latin you know so
    2:04:35 you need to have a star system that
    2:04:36 matches that so that you don’t have
    2:04:38 trouble casting and people are like well
    2:04:39 you can’t hire this person so I built up
    2:04:41 my own star system so Danny was one of
    2:04:44 my stars so after we’re doing grindhouse
    2:04:46 we had to do fake trailers for grindhouse
    2:04:50 and I told Quentin I know what trailer
    2:04:52 I’m gonna do for the movie I never got to
    2:04:54 make with Danny Coleman Shetty that’ll be
    2:04:56 so fun finally get that out of our system
    2:04:58 and doing a trailer is so fun it’s two
    2:05:00 days of shooting just still being that
    2:05:03 resourceful guy we asked this company
    2:05:05 that had a digital camera we wanted to
    2:05:06 use can you let us send it to us for a
    2:05:08 couple of day screen test I mean camera
    2:05:10 test instead of shooting a camera test
    2:05:11 we shot the trailer so we got a free
    2:05:14 camera shot the trailer with him it’s
    2:05:15 just the money shots him opening his
    2:05:17 vest full of machetes you know him
    2:05:19 aiming that gun him in a waterfall with
    2:05:22 two gals and I just came up with this
    2:05:25 really funny trailer and we shot it people
    2:05:27 were screaming at the premiere you
    2:05:29 couldn’t even hear it they just wanted
    2:05:32 that movie so badly because there was
    2:05:33 blaxploitation in the 70s there was
    2:05:35 never exploitation it felt like this
    2:05:37 should have existed but it didn’t it’s
    2:05:39 Mexican superhero they just never seen
    2:05:40 anything like that you know now you
    2:05:42 know but like even his mom calls him
    2:05:45 machete like he just became this guy and
    2:05:47 about 250 movies that he’s been in
    2:05:51 machetes is most famous one so for five
    2:05:55 years five years people would come up to
    2:05:58 us and say where’s machete why aren’t
    2:06:00 you where’s the when’s that movie coming
    2:06:02 out we’re like it’s not a real movie
    2:06:03 but when it looks real we want to see
    2:06:05 that movie so we finally made the movie
    2:06:08 because people just asked for it and I
    2:06:10 used I wanted to I was adamant about
    2:06:12 being resourceful again all those shots
    2:06:13 that are in the trailer are really
    2:06:15 great I got a reverse engineer the
    2:06:17 trailer into a movie so that I can use
    2:06:20 that shot that’s in the trailer like
    2:06:21 this girl in the waterfall why would
    2:06:22 this girl be in the waterfall don’t
    2:06:23 have a really clever way that he gets
    2:06:25 the bad guy her hair’s kind of her face
    2:06:26 is kind of covered by this hair we’ll
    2:06:29 cast Lindsay Lohan there or the
    2:06:30 senator will switch it out for Robert
    2:06:33 De Niro well I just reverse engineer it
    2:06:34 so every time there’s a shot in the
    2:06:37 trailer it’s in the movie but I shot
    2:06:38 all the footage around to lead up to it
    2:06:40 that’s another fun creative exercise is
    2:06:42 to reverse engineer something you just
    2:06:44 did like this on the day you just threw
    2:06:46 a bunch of cards out basically with that
    2:06:47 trailer and now you got to go make a
    2:06:49 movie using all those cards that’s like
    2:06:52 a creative exercise that I thought so
    2:06:54 satisfying so fun yeah that was
    2:06:57 beautiful you’re actually known in part
    2:06:59 maybe you can correct me but do pretty
    2:07:00 unexpected surprising kind of
    2:07:03 interesting casting so Robert De Niro
    2:07:05 is an example of that and that’s just a
    2:07:07 great role the second aspect of that I
    2:07:09 heard the story that you can just get an
    2:07:11 actor in and out in just a few days
    2:07:14 really fast the Robert Rodriguez
    2:07:15 experience as they call it how do you
    2:07:17 make that happen can you just tell the
    2:07:19 story I’m the editor I’m the cameraman
    2:07:23 I’m the DP and so when I call him and
    2:07:27 say I’ve got you as the villain in this
    2:07:29 whole movie but I’m gonna shoot I swear
    2:07:31 I’m gonna shoot you on four days you come
    2:07:32 down four days like there’s a scene where
    2:07:34 he’s in the hospital he’s just smiling
    2:07:36 he’s having such a good time because he
    2:07:37 couldn’t believe I said guess what when
    2:07:39 you wake up from your hotel room at the
    2:07:41 Stephen F Austin you just cross the
    2:07:43 hallway that’s the set the room the room
    2:07:44 next to yours we’ve turned into the
    2:07:46 hospital set so you’re just gonna come
    2:07:48 laying there in your pajamas really
    2:07:49 that’s what you did yeah we had to save
    2:07:51 time we only have four days so everything
    2:07:53 had to be very thought out to be like
    2:07:54 boom boom boom let’s shoot the money
    2:07:55 get him out of this we don’t have to
    2:07:57 spend a lot of money on him book a room
    2:07:59 in a hotel set up to look like a
    2:08:01 hospital yeah that’s their scent it’s
    2:08:02 real you don’t have to dress it and
    2:08:03 it’s just right there all you do is
    2:08:05 put like a little tube there you know
    2:08:07 like a for his IV and then you have a
    2:08:09 couple of nurses and it looks like
    2:08:11 just genius it was Robert De Niro
    2:08:14 resourceful resourceful next door but I
    2:08:15 said you’re gonna think about me when
    2:08:17 you’re on your next meet the fuckers
    2:08:18 movie and you’re on there for six
    2:08:20 months but they have you sitting in a
    2:08:22 trailer I don’t like to do that so you
    2:08:23 know I gave Lady Gaga her first two
    2:08:27 movies because after Machete she said
    2:08:30 publicly she said I saw Machete and my
    2:08:32 song Americano should have been in
    2:08:34 Machete I thought she saw Machete so I
    2:08:36 called her up and I said hey I’m making
    2:08:38 a sequel and I would certainly use your
    2:08:39 music but have you ever thought about
    2:08:40 acting because you’re an amazing
    2:08:42 performer I think I’ve worked with a lot
    2:08:43 of actors who are also musicians and
    2:08:44 they’re always great because I already
    2:08:46 know how to be a persona be on stage
    2:08:47 be in front of a bunch of people which
    2:08:49 most actors can’t do and she said
    2:08:51 actually I studied acting before I
    2:08:53 became a singer so well you’ll never be
    2:08:54 able to be in a movie because you
    2:08:55 know what they don’t know how to shoot
    2:08:58 people out they want six months of your
    2:09:00 time and you’ve got and you’re always
    2:09:02 on tour but if you come be here I have a
    2:09:05 part for you I can shoot you out in half
    2:09:07 a day this whole section of a movie and
    2:09:09 I’ll shoot your movie poster she’s like
    2:09:11 okay so she shows up I had all the sets
    2:09:12 like a conveyor belt right next to each
    2:09:14 other shoot shoot shoot shoot she’s in
    2:09:16 the car that’s why she had me do her
    2:09:18 music video for rain on me later she
    2:09:19 said we should just go to Austin Robert
    2:09:21 put me on a grease I was throughout that
    2:09:23 whole movie I don’t know how we did
    2:09:25 that it was half a day she was there
    2:09:27 half a day I did the same for Sin City
    2:09:29 too I was like I have a set here
    2:09:31 waiting for you if you’re on tour in
    2:09:32 Houston just driving to Austin I’ll
    2:09:34 shoot you out in half a day you could be
    2:09:35 in a scene with Joseph Gordon-Levitt
    2:09:36 sure she came down so wait how do you
    2:09:38 take Robert and you know how do you take
    2:09:41 Lady Gaga and like solve the puzzle of
    2:09:43 all the scenes that have to be in how do
    2:09:45 we shoot them quickly efficiently
    2:09:48 conveniently you have to edit your own
    2:09:51 movie I have this analogy a food analogy
    2:09:54 that works really well script is like
    2:09:57 your grocery list filming it’s like
    2:09:58 grocery shopping getting the best
    2:10:00 performances getting the best beat
    2:10:01 getting the best ingredients right
    2:10:06 editing is like the cooking too much of
    2:10:08 this and not enough that you fuck the
    2:10:09 whole thing up so there’s so many
    2:10:12 filmmakers do not edit yeah and they give
    2:10:14 it to some other guy who might look at
    2:10:15 all your ingredients and go this is all
    2:10:17 great but I’m gonna go make a fucking
    2:10:20 souffle and he makes something else so
    2:10:23 by doing that job I mean like I’ve
    2:10:25 worked on some big stuff and I realized
    2:10:26 finally after many years because I’ve
    2:10:28 always edited I realized this is why
    2:10:31 movies cost so much there could be 150
    2:10:33 200 people on the crew but I swear not
    2:10:36 one of them knows how to edit not one so
    2:10:38 they’re getting the wrong stuff they’re
    2:10:40 having to reshoot shit the editor is in a
    2:10:42 room somewhere useless calling after the
    2:10:44 fact we still need to get this close-up
    2:10:45 you got to reshoot that because it
    2:10:47 doesn’t match because no one knows
    2:10:52 editing so if you just know that you’re
    2:10:54 already miles ahead of 99% of Hollywood
    2:10:57 but that’s just how I learned by accident
    2:11:00 so I kind of stumbled upon it but and I
    2:11:01 realized that’s what the problem is
    2:11:03 because across the board I’m watching
    2:11:05 them going that’s not gonna match you
    2:11:07 guys are just spending money sending
    2:11:09 crews out shooting stuff for this it’s
    2:11:11 just it’s a clusterfuck let me show you
    2:11:14 and that’s how it’s in city Bruce Willis
    2:11:16 nine days well Brittany Murphy’s and all
    2:11:19 three stories one day Benicio La Toro three
    2:11:22 days it’s just like you’re just shooting
    2:11:24 this stuff Mickey Rourke is in a sequence
    2:11:26 with Redgar Hauer we shot eight months
    2:11:29 apart I didn’t have Redgar Hauer so I was
    2:11:31 doing Sharkboy Lavagirl so I just shot
    2:11:32 Mickey acting with me and then it’s not
    2:11:33 regular acting with me and I just come
    2:11:36 together what’s weird is like editing
    2:11:37 exercises or like I used to do these
    2:11:39 editing exercises where I went to my
    2:11:41 VCRs together and I would cut my movies
    2:11:42 but sometimes I would just cut a music
    2:11:44 video and I cut a music video once because
    2:11:46 I was a big fan of Redgar Hauer and a big
    2:11:48 fan of Mickey Rourke so I said I want to
    2:11:49 make it look like they’re in a movie
    2:11:50 together so I cut this music video
    2:11:52 together but and so it shows like
    2:11:55 lightning on Redgar and the hitcher and
    2:11:58 lightning on Mickey from Rumblefish but
    2:12:00 Rumblefish is black and white so I made
    2:12:01 the whole thing black and white I was
    2:12:04 like 19 I was 19 years old and then
    2:12:06 years later I’m making Sin City I shot
    2:12:08 Mickey not knowing who the other actor
    2:12:09 was gonna be until I cast him eight
    2:12:11 months later and it was Redgar I’m
    2:12:12 cutting them together to look like
    2:12:13 they’re in the same movie and it’s in
    2:12:16 black and white I’m like I’ve done this
    2:12:20 before oh my god I found that old video
    2:12:21 it’s like oh my god I already made a
    2:12:22 movie then in black and white that’s
    2:12:25 weird shit right that’s the magic of
    2:12:27 creativity it’s like sometimes when you
    2:12:30 have a vision it’s not clear but it’s
    2:12:32 coming to you from the future so you
    2:12:34 gotta just follow the voice no matter
    2:12:35 what anyone says about your curtains
    2:12:38 just follow the voice you got in your
    2:12:40 head because you don’t know and you’re
    2:12:43 not smart enough to know and you don’t
    2:12:45 need to know you just need to do you
    2:12:47 just need to be the hands so this is
    2:12:50 like what you can do with no time or
    2:12:52 money when you know all those jobs it’s
    2:12:53 the benefit of knowing those jobs like I
    2:12:56 said the more you know those jobs the
    2:12:58 more you know your main job which is
    2:13:00 being creative but on the day thinking
    2:13:02 on your feet so I’m going to show you
    2:13:06 this um this test okay so for dustled on
    2:13:07 the TV series I would always shoot the
    2:13:09 first episode and the last episode of
    2:13:11 like a seven or eight episode season
    2:13:14 there’s three seasons by the time we got
    2:13:16 to the third season I was doing Alita so
    2:13:19 I couldn’t do the big finale episode in
    2:13:21 my actor who plays the George Clooney
    2:13:23 character DJ Katrona he’s somebody who
    2:13:25 fucking wanted to be a writer was
    2:13:27 writing he’s wrote fight and flight is
    2:13:28 this movie that’s gonna come out with
    2:13:30 Josh Arnett that’s his he wrote it
    2:13:32 after doing this he was like man hearing
    2:13:34 you talk you know what I got this is what
    2:13:36 I love about you inspire people the
    2:13:38 feedback loop inspires you back he said
    2:13:41 man hearing your talk for red 11 and the
    2:13:43 cards and I’ve got a script that’s
    2:13:45 partially written I’m just gonna go I’m
    2:13:47 gonna go crank it out in 3d I’m gonna
    2:13:48 cut off the phone in 3d I’m gonna finish
    2:13:50 that thing in three fucking days and he
    2:13:52 came back and he said I finished the
    2:13:54 script and I read it I go when you read
    2:13:56 it in three days and oh I wrote something
    2:13:59 before but I just kept thinking I wasn’t
    2:14:00 ready and then you told me the thing
    2:14:01 about not being ready and you said that
    2:14:03 really resonated I went and I finished it
    2:14:05 in three days I go man I’m gonna do that
    2:14:06 I’m gonna go do the DJ method I call the
    2:14:08 DJ method I have a bunch of half-baked
    2:14:10 ideas that I’m just gonna go turn off the
    2:14:12 phone and finish the thing in three days
    2:14:15 and I’ll fix it later but does three
    2:14:17 days it’s gonna be pure pipe it’s just
    2:14:18 gonna be coming through because you’re
    2:14:20 just gonna be picking up the pen so
    2:14:21 anyway he once he came to me with this
    2:14:23 idea he said oh man I was hoping you’d
    2:14:25 do the last episode of dust till dawn
    2:14:26 because I had this great idea for a
    2:14:28 scene we’re in a zombie town western
    2:14:30 town we have those ones those guns
    2:14:32 where you have to pull the trigger you
    2:14:33 know the hammer back before you can
    2:14:35 fire so I thought what if I have a gun
    2:14:37 that’s empty and I got bullets in the
    2:14:39 other hand and I bump into a zombie the
    2:14:41 bullets go flying I jump and I catch all
    2:14:43 the bullets and shoot the guy before I
    2:14:45 hit the ground okay that’s kind of a
    2:14:47 real cool like desperado type thing but
    2:14:50 dude this is a seven-day shoot for
    2:14:53 these episodes every one of the crew
    2:14:54 will have a different idea on how to do
    2:14:57 that stunt guy will put you on wires
    2:14:59 because you have to do all that action
    2:15:02 or the DP isn’t even operating the
    2:15:04 camera it’s a camera guy the director
    2:15:05 doesn’t know how to shoot he’s not
    2:15:08 operating the camera your editors in a
    2:15:12 room somewhere VFX guys aren’t there
    2:15:13 you’re not gonna be able to ask them how
    2:15:16 to do it but I and my own VFX I came
    2:15:17 up with how we did all the shots in
    2:15:18 Sin City and all this bike and we thought
    2:15:22 we need one guy to come do it I’ll come
    2:15:24 do it for you I’ll come do it because
    2:15:26 I’m already gonna be there because I
    2:15:27 have to shoot a second unit fight scene
    2:15:28 for the other actor who wanted a cool
    2:15:30 fight scene so I was already doing that
    2:15:32 when it comes to your scene we’ll switch
    2:15:33 places because it’s got to be done
    2:15:34 quick because you’ve got you got to
    2:15:36 shoot it in 20 minutes because you got
    2:15:37 a ton of other shit you got to shoot
    2:15:39 and you’ll just never get it you won’t
    2:15:41 even get it in a film schedule you
    2:15:42 know in a regular movie schedule it’s
    2:15:45 just too crazy you need somebody with a
    2:15:47 vision to do the whole thing so this
    2:15:49 is what it would look like if you’re on
    2:15:50 the set I’m gonna show you the footage
    2:15:52 and I’m gonna show you the scene I have
    2:15:53 to show it to you a couple of times
    2:15:54 you’re not gonna believe what you’re
    2:15:58 about to see so if you were on the set
    2:15:59 this is what it would look like so I get
    2:16:01 there they said we’re ready for that
    2:16:02 scene so I get over there to the set and
    2:16:04 I go okay where where are you coming
    2:16:07 out of this building where are you
    2:16:09 getting the bullets from that body okay
    2:16:12 bring that body closer okay stunt guy
    2:16:14 bring a pad over I want to see you just
    2:16:16 jump and start to twist as if you’re
    2:16:17 turning I just want to see how much
    2:16:19 airtime you can get to get any action
    2:16:22 before you hit the pad he starts to jump
    2:16:23 he’s barely starts jumping he’s already
    2:16:24 hitting the pad so I was like okay that
    2:16:25 ain’t gonna work you get out of here
    2:16:28 DJ you’re gonna do it I have no idea I’m
    2:16:29 gonna do this I hadn’t thought about it
    2:16:30 before but now you’re there so awesome
    2:16:32 and now the options are very limited
    2:16:34 yeah you’re very look at the sun you’re
    2:16:35 gonna see the sun not move you see
    2:16:36 that’s the point where the sun starts
    2:16:38 getting lost I have to shoot this in 20
    2:16:41 minutes you’re gonna do three jumps and
    2:16:43 I’m gonna cut it to look like one jump
    2:16:45 all the bullets are gonna miss only one’s
    2:16:48 gonna go in so here just follow what I’m
    2:16:49 saying is gonna have time what cameras do
    2:16:51 we have what’s on the a camera a long
    2:16:53 lens oh yeah that’s my camera I’ll
    2:16:54 operate that what’s on the b camera
    2:16:56 steady cam leave it on steady cam no
    2:16:59 chance no time to convert it at one
    2:17:02 point I want to lower it so just flip
    2:17:04 it upside down we’ll flop it later give
    2:17:05 me the main camera okay DJ start running
    2:17:08 towards that bullets and grab it and
    2:17:09 pretend like it gets shot out of your
    2:17:10 hand I shoot it in slow motion but I’m
    2:17:12 showing you how it would look on the set
    2:17:14 okay now the bullets are flying I’m
    2:17:15 gonna add those digitally I’m gonna hold
    2:17:17 the bullets up to the light and each
    2:17:19 angle so that they know what it’s
    2:17:20 supposed to look like so they can match
    2:17:22 that otherwise it’ll look phony now
    2:17:25 first jump I just want you to commit to
    2:17:28 just jumping out and just look at the
    2:17:30 barrel just look at the barrel on your
    2:17:32 hands when you’re jumping because that’ll
    2:17:33 look like you’re looking at the bullets
    2:17:36 and just don’t even think about that
    2:17:37 you’re gonna catch a bullet don’t think
    2:17:39 about that you’re gonna start turning
    2:17:41 just stretch your body out get a really
    2:17:44 graphic look how cool that looks and
    2:17:45 then the side view it’s shot this at the
    2:17:50 same time you can already tell it’s gonna
    2:17:52 look like bullets are missing right okay
    2:17:55 now I need now I need this part though I
    2:17:57 need the part where he’s catching the
    2:18:00 bullet this little window there how am I
    2:18:04 gonna do that with a lens that long it’s
    2:18:05 gonna be all out of focus it’s not gonna
    2:18:08 be slow motion enough he even knows me and
    2:18:08 he’s like what the hell am I doing so I
    2:18:11 just lay on the pad and rock up and down
    2:18:13 and as you’re coming down that’ll look
    2:18:16 like you’re falling as I’m zooming in
    2:18:17 because I’m operating the camera and I’m
    2:18:20 cutting this in my head yeah and I’m
    2:18:21 saying just do it again he’s like what
    2:18:23 is it rock up and then as you go down
    2:18:25 it’s gonna look like you’re falling well like
    2:18:27 done bullets okay well done you’ve
    2:18:29 caught a bullet one went in now second
    2:18:33 jump when you do the next jump as if we
    2:18:34 just passed those other moments you’ve
    2:18:36 caught a bullet already so now you’re
    2:18:38 gonna snap it closed and start your turn
    2:18:40 it’s all you’ll get before you hit the
    2:18:44 pad snap turn right so like okay this is I
    2:18:46 want the cameras to feel like they’re
    2:18:48 dropping with them that’ll give you more
    2:18:49 of the sensation so let’s actually lower
    2:18:52 that steady cam shot flip it upside down
    2:18:54 and get a low angle so yeah look at the
    2:18:55 sun’s right there hasn’t gone behind
    2:18:57 the building yet that and then my
    2:18:59 camera I lowered my camera down and I
    2:19:03 got that angle right okay now last jump
    2:19:06 I bury a thin I said just bear me bring me
    2:19:08 a thin mattress because I want him to do
    2:19:09 all the stuns I don’t want a stunt guy
    2:19:12 because he does this himself he just did
    2:19:13 it in three jumps but the audience will
    2:19:15 know they’ll just be like we believe that
    2:19:18 this guy can do anything I want you just
    2:19:22 to finish by turning and cocking the
    2:19:23 hammer back and firing before you hit the
    2:19:25 ground I’ll give you two takes for that
    2:19:29 almost gets it there then we do a second
    2:19:31 take boom down there that other one was
    2:19:32 probably a little better even though you
    2:19:34 don’t really see it I’ve got to go do
    2:19:36 everything now I got to cut it I got to
    2:19:37 add the sound effects myself I got to put
    2:19:38 the music in myself because music guys
    2:19:40 would just end up filling it with music
    2:19:42 and ruin it sound effects guys would just
    2:19:43 fill it full of sound effects and ruin it I
    2:19:46 want all the sound to drop out so as he’s
    2:19:48 jumping all you hear is the wind in his
    2:19:51 jacket the clinking of the bullets as
    2:19:53 they’re bouncing off so you have this
    2:19:55 breathless moment no music cut the music
    2:19:58 and that moment you cut it so that you’re
    2:19:59 like I wonder if he’s going to make it
    2:20:03 right so I go home I cut it before I even
    2:20:05 have the visual effects in I just cut it
    2:20:07 that night because I cut my own sound
    2:20:09 effects I cut my sound effects in you can
    2:20:10 already tell it’s going to work you can
    2:20:12 already see even with the bullets not
    2:20:14 there you can tell by the sound where
    2:20:16 they’re going to be it’s going to work
    2:20:18 I call him up said dude this is going
    2:20:19 to work great so then I go to the effects
    2:20:22 guys and I go okay there’s bullet in
    2:20:23 this frame and the next frame is here
    2:20:24 because I used to animate in the next
    2:20:26 frame it’s there then it hits the barrel
    2:20:28 and then it starts bouncing this way I
    2:20:30 want it that clear so we can follow that
    2:20:31 a bullet was supposed to go in and that
    2:20:33 it bounced way over there and then this
    2:20:35 bullet bounced way over there and then
    2:20:37 they send it back and a bunch of
    2:20:38 bullets come down now guys listen to
    2:20:39 what I say I’m gonna show you again
    2:20:42 I’m gonna draw it to you again just the
    2:20:44 sound will play like there’s multiple
    2:20:46 bullets flying I don’t need to see all
    2:20:47 those bullets or the eyes not going to
    2:20:49 know where to go so then they got it
    2:20:51 right brilliant yeah and then check this
    2:20:52 out I’m gonna show it to you twice
    2:20:53 because you’re gonna believe
    2:21:18 wow changes direction wow wow crazy well done you
    2:21:20 don’t even see that in a feature film much
    2:21:22 that’s a tv show just as a director well
    2:21:24 done oh thank you here just one more
    2:21:26 time and I’ll show you something you
    2:21:27 didn’t notice both times
    2:21:49 that’s amazing just those decisions coming
    2:21:51 together perfectly coming together and like
    2:21:55 this you got you got minutes just uh moving
    2:21:57 the camera like you decided to do really
    2:21:58 worked really well the balancing of the
    2:22:00 mattress whatever and it’s not like you
    2:22:01 have this whole plan figured out ahead
    2:22:02 you’re literally in the moment you’re
    2:22:04 it’s coming through you but you’re
    2:22:06 seeing it right I’m seeing it because
    2:22:07 I’ve done it enough that’s why you
    2:22:09 really want to learn all those jobs
    2:22:10 because it come you come to a moment
    2:22:12 like this when the shit’s fucking in the
    2:22:14 fan you got to know how to pull it out
    2:22:15 you could have gotten all those people
    2:22:16 together and they never would have
    2:22:18 figured that out you had one person had
    2:22:19 to see it all the way through you’re
    2:22:21 seeing the bullet how it’s gonna go in
    2:22:22 the in the result I’ve done enough
    2:22:23 times to know that if you don’t do it
    2:22:25 just right you’re gonna you’re gonna
    2:22:27 lose the image you’re not gonna know
    2:22:28 where to follow and you’ll miss the
    2:22:30 point and also yeah I love that you’re
    2:22:32 thinking about where the the eyes of the
    2:22:34 audience will go and that’s like you
    2:22:37 like I feel like too many people might
    2:22:41 think about some more general concept of a
    2:22:44 scene versus like the audience where’s
    2:22:45 their eye is their eye well you’re
    2:22:47 drawing you’re drawing it through sound
    2:22:49 to picture I’m gonna show you if you
    2:22:51 notice without the sound you don’t
    2:22:53 really see him click that thing back
    2:22:55 the sound is so central here watch this
    2:22:58 you you don’t really right I thought I
    2:23:00 saw it you think you saw it but you hear
    2:23:01 it so you feel like see but watch it’s
    2:23:04 actually he’s already finished you don’t
    2:23:06 really see him do it you know but you
    2:23:08 swear you saw it in a close-up because
    2:23:09 the sound is in a close-up I put the
    2:23:11 sound in a close-up now here’s another
    2:23:13 thing you didn’t notice he hits this
    2:23:16 ground in the first shot watch one two
    2:23:20 three four five six seven eight you
    2:23:21 didn’t notice it because I didn’t play
    2:23:23 the sound there so if you don’t hear it
    2:23:25 you don’t see it and if you don’t see it
    2:23:28 but you play a sound you hear it then
    2:23:30 you see it in your mind right so check
    2:23:32 that out now with the sound on and
    2:23:34 you’ll see both those parts play
    2:23:35 completely different now
    2:23:47 now you hear it like I know you can
    2:23:48 get away with that because I know
    2:23:50 editing and I like if I don’t play the
    2:23:51 sound I can go ahead and milk that shot
    2:23:53 as long as I want I’ll make him be in
    2:23:55 the air longer even though he’s
    2:23:56 actually touching the ground by not
    2:23:58 playing the sound and that comes from you
    2:23:59 said directing but it’s not directing
    2:24:01 like people can direct and say this is
    2:24:04 what I want but to actually execute it
    2:24:07 you need to be a craftsman and to be a
    2:24:08 craftsman you have to learn all those
    2:24:10 crafts and not just with the visuals but
    2:24:13 with the sound the sound is so important
    2:24:16 sound is half the picture sound and if
    2:24:18 you cut sound you realize how important
    2:24:20 sound is I would learn so much by doing
    2:24:22 those movies like Desperado action
    2:24:24 movies where you go wow the sound I can
    2:24:25 add an extra sound effect of an extra
    2:24:27 punch he didn’t even throw and it
    2:24:29 sounds like he’s beating the shit out
    2:24:31 of this guy and you only need to see one
    2:24:32 or two hits and you can hear five you
    2:24:33 know you know you know where you can
    2:24:35 push your limits because you’ve done it
    2:24:36 you’ve done it and you’ve got the
    2:24:38 experience it’s so amazing that you can
    2:24:40 use sound to make a person believe they
    2:24:43 saw something that wasn’t actually there
    2:24:45 on the screen yeah your brain fills it in
    2:24:46 that’s crazy and that’s why that’s so
    2:24:48 important because if you don’t know that
    2:24:50 you’ll be on the set shooting 10 takes
    2:24:52 of that because you’re like no he didn’t
    2:24:53 you know I didn’t see him click it back
    2:24:55 I didn’t see I didn’t see him click it
    2:24:57 back it’s that’s really needed I can do
    2:24:59 that with sound let’s just go let’s just
    2:25:00 keep moving when you say sound close up
    2:25:02 was I so like the sound all the other
    2:25:04 sound dropped away and all you hear is
    2:25:06 like the sound like the mics right on
    2:25:09 that thing so that you hear it so big in
    2:25:12 your ear that you swear it was in close
    2:25:14 up too but just the sound was close how
    2:25:16 do you sorry just to give an insight into
    2:25:19 like that process of sound design what are
    2:25:23 you like listening to the sound and just
    2:25:26 like experiencing the feeling that creates
    2:25:27 and then you’re like that’s just right
    2:25:29 playing and post a lot so I have a whole
    2:25:31 library of sound effects from all my movies
    2:25:34 so I can pull up like the gun sound we
    2:25:35 created for Bruce Willis and Sensity and
    2:25:38 use that and mix it with Antonio’s gun
    2:25:40 from Desperado you know I remember in
    2:25:42 four rooms there’s a scene where the
    2:25:45 bellhop goes into the hotel room jams his
    2:25:48 key into it and clicks it and I used all
    2:25:49 gun sounds for the sound of the key
    2:25:51 instead of key sounds because it wasn’t
    2:25:53 sound close up enough so if you listen to
    2:25:56 you hear you hear like all these sounds
    2:25:58 from gun to do the key is it’s like that
    2:26:00 conveys the sound better you know I’ll use
    2:26:01 different kinds of sounds that just have
    2:26:04 impact and put it somewhere like when he
    2:26:06 hits the ground or so I like playing with
    2:26:09 all that in post when I’m editing because
    2:26:11 it makes my editing job easier sometimes
    2:26:13 it’s like oh the sound is covering me I
    2:26:15 don’t I don’t need to keep trying to
    2:26:16 massage this the sound is actually selling
    2:26:19 it and so I keep those sound effects into
    2:26:21 the final movie so it’s just all part
    2:26:22 necessary it’s like it’s like being a
    2:26:23 chef you’re there cooking and you’re
    2:26:25 going like I know the recipe says this
    2:26:27 but I think it really could use
    2:26:29 jalapenos and some extra pepper or maybe
    2:26:31 a little more salt and then it needs an
    2:26:32 acid of some kind so I’m gonna add some
    2:26:34 lemon juice yeah you made me realize I’m
    2:26:35 not sure where I saw that but you were
    2:26:37 you were talking about making sort of
    2:26:40 almost like home films for fun and I
    2:26:43 think you mentioned how exciting you can
    2:26:45 make a very mundane scene by just adding
    2:26:47 sound oh yeah there was I think there was
    2:26:50 like a little kid for this car you have
    2:26:52 one of those little and but I added a
    2:26:54 motor sound to it and it’s like wow it
    2:26:56 sounds realistic somehow like I don’t
    2:26:57 and then we’re playing doing and then
    2:26:59 we’re playing with these little cars
    2:27:00 filming ourselves playing with the cars
    2:27:03 but then I replace it with real car
    2:27:08 sounds and it just your brain links the
    2:27:10 reality of the real thing crazy you
    2:27:12 realize how unimportant the visual is and
    2:27:15 how important the sound is actually sound
    2:27:16 is everything that’s what I was really
    2:27:18 lucky in mariachi that my camera didn’t
    2:27:20 work for sound because then I got really
    2:27:22 good sound that I would have gotten with a
    2:27:24 shitty mic out of frame because that’s
    2:27:26 the first telltale sign of a low-budget
    2:27:28 movie is bad sound bad sound right away
    2:27:29 you can already hear all this hiss and
    2:27:32 all this mic was too far and you’re like
    2:27:34 low-budget movie before your eyes even
    2:27:36 tell you the sound gives it away isn’t
    2:27:39 that amazing the audio is first sound is
    2:27:41 first really even though it’s a visual
    2:27:46 medium that’s so crazy just on the what’s
    2:27:49 the plan with the with the four action
    2:27:51 films like what what what are the next
    2:27:53 steps I’ll probably direct more than one
    2:27:54 because there’s already several that I
    2:27:56 want to do but I was I’m going to direct
    2:27:57 at least one but I’m producing all three
    2:28:00 all four and they’re at my studio it does
    2:28:02 draw you in it draws you in and it makes
    2:28:03 you go now think of ideas you never
    2:28:05 would have thought of for mainly because
    2:28:07 it has a filter well now I don’t have to
    2:28:10 think of all these ideas I can only I
    2:28:12 actually have like that like me on that
    2:28:14 set there’s only very few things I can
    2:28:15 actually come up with that are just
    2:28:16 action driven first when they have a
    2:28:18 great character you’ll get to it a lot
    2:28:20 faster with a filter that’s the beauty of
    2:28:22 a filter is that now you’ve just shrunk
    2:28:26 your your target and now you can hit that
    2:28:28 target and people are coming up with ideas
    2:28:30 because now they’ve got proximity and
    2:28:31 they’ve got a reason to come up with the
    2:28:33 idea and they’ve got a deadline which is
    2:28:35 the best thing you can do is have a
    2:28:37 deadline because when you have a deadline
    2:28:39 you can freaking move mountains you know
    2:28:41 I had a spike is in the theater every
    2:28:44 year three years in a row not being
    2:28:45 pre-planned every year there was a spike
    2:28:48 is now the third one was the biggest
    2:28:51 one biggest cast mostly green screen video
    2:28:53 game and the first digital 3d movie ever
    2:28:56 so getting visual effects companies to
    2:28:58 make that we realized oh I shot it with
    2:29:01 two cameras that means each effect shot
    2:29:02 has to be done twice from a different
    2:29:05 angle so I went to the studio midway
    2:29:07 through that and said there’s not going to
    2:29:09 be a movie in the theaters in time
    2:29:11 you’re going to have to push the date
    2:29:13 back and they said okay we’ve never
    2:29:15 heard you panic we’ll push the date back
    2:29:17 for you they called back 10 minutes
    2:29:19 later I was like oh thank god because
    2:29:20 it’s really complicated I know it’s gonna
    2:29:22 be this complicated but I wanted a
    2:29:25 challenge and they said McDonald’s will
    2:29:26 sue us for 20 million dollars if you
    2:29:28 move the date you have to have a movie
    2:29:30 in the theater we started shooting that
    2:29:34 movie in January of 2003 it was in 3d in
    2:29:38 theaters by July that’s the fastest any
    2:29:41 effects movie has ever been done that’s
    2:29:43 insane because you had no choice so
    2:29:46 deadline makes you do things and make
    2:29:47 decisions really quickly and it was the
    2:29:50 biggest of the three deadlines are good
    2:29:52 and it’s hard for us to self-impose a
    2:29:54 deadline sometimes because we know it’s a
    2:29:55 bullshit deadline and your brain knows
    2:29:58 it’s bullshit but why do deadlines work
    2:30:00 because when the deadline’s coming up what
    2:30:05 do you do you can’t you start you start to
    2:30:07 put the pen to the paper and it starts
    2:30:10 just flowing you have no choice you have
    2:30:11 to get out of the way and open the pipe
    2:30:14 and it just comes out and you’re shocked
    2:30:15 you’re like oh my god I should do
    2:30:16 everything at the last minute well no you
    2:30:18 don’t have to but if you just learn how
    2:30:21 to open that pipe earlier you wouldn’t be
    2:30:23 in a rush but you had to get out of your
    2:30:25 way because your deadline was up and you
    2:30:27 had to come up with it so many people are
    2:30:28 going to come up with all these extra
    2:30:30 great ideas at the last minute they’ve
    2:30:32 already but I looks like everyone who’s
    2:30:35 already signing on because they didn’t
    2:30:36 it’s cool they don’t know when the
    2:30:37 deadline is they keep writing in saying
    2:30:39 when is the deadline for this and we say
    2:30:41 well when when we close the funding in
    2:30:44 May but we didn’t say when still so I
    2:30:46 think that gives them like a sense of a
    2:30:48 deadline like shit it might be May 1st
    2:30:49 or maybe May 2nd so we better get my
    2:30:51 idea going so I think it works in your
    2:30:52 favor because then you come up with
    2:30:54 stuff and you’re going to feel so
    2:30:56 enriched by doing the idea that you’re
    2:30:57 not going to care if it gets picked or
    2:30:59 not you’re going to love this idea so
    2:31:01 much it could turn into 10 other
    2:31:02 things you never even thought about
    2:31:04 that’s the beauty of doing a project
    2:31:06 nothing ever goes to waste so many
    2:31:08 ideas that were sitting around that I
    2:31:09 come up with and put a lot of time in
    2:31:12 are now like oh I can do these now I
    2:31:15 have I know how to finish it now I have
    2:31:17 to ask you about Alita so you’ve done so
    2:31:19 many incredibly innovative projects this
    2:31:21 is one of them it turned out to be this
    2:31:23 visual masterpiece there’s a bunch of
    2:31:26 complexity beautiful complexity about it
    2:31:28 in that it started out as a film that
    2:31:30 James Cameron was supposed to make yeah and
    2:31:32 then you started to collaborate with him
    2:31:35 on it and these two I would say brilliant
    2:31:36 directors but with different styles like
    2:31:39 you were talking about and so plus there’s
    2:31:41 the complexity of for people haven’t seen
    2:31:45 it you’re putting this artificial creation
    2:31:49 this beautiful photorealistic artificial
    2:31:53 creation of a human being into a real world so you
    2:31:56 have to capture the the performance not just
    2:31:58 the motion but the performance of this
    2:32:01 actor put them into this with the power of
    2:32:03 technology into the real world to convey all
    2:32:06 the emotion the richness of the human face
    2:32:08 can you just speak to the process of bringing
    2:32:10 that world to life sure I mean one I never
    2:32:12 would have attempted if it wasn’t Jim because
    2:32:15 Jim has has figured all this out so just to
    2:32:17 get you again remember like I said hey Jim I’m
    2:32:19 operating a study can what do you think of
    2:32:21 that well I’m designing a new system that’s
    2:32:23 always how it is between him and I so when I
    2:32:24 went to show him Desperado when it was done
    2:32:28 he said you might not want to sit through if
    2:32:29 you don’t want to sit through it while I’m
    2:32:30 watching it it’s fine do you want to read any
    2:32:33 of my scriptments my treatment treatment scripts
    2:32:35 you know called scriptments that sure it
    2:32:38 goes I have spider-man and I got avatar so this
    2:32:42 was in 95 he was showing me the scriptment for
    2:32:45 avatar which there was no technology for that he
    2:32:50 was already doing stuff that didn’t exist yeah
    2:32:52 and I was reading it going like it’s a great
    2:32:54 story and he’s like I don’t know how the fuck’s
    2:32:57 gonna do this it’s impossible it’s not even he’d
    2:32:59 just done you know Terminator 2 a few years
    2:33:01 before it’s like that was thing of the art
    2:33:05 so Alita was going to be the movie he did
    2:33:08 first to prepare for avatar and so he had
    2:33:11 already done some prep work on it it was based
    2:33:14 on a manga but before they did that they just
    2:33:17 started doing some tests for avatar and then
    2:33:18 as they got deeper into the test for avatar to
    2:33:21 prepare for Alita they went I guess we’re making
    2:33:25 avatar first so Alita got kind of pushed to the
    2:33:27 side and they ended up doing it which ended up
    2:33:29 becoming such a journey to make that movie to
    2:33:32 get the technology to build it to make it because
    2:33:33 I remember visiting him on the set I mean I’ve
    2:33:35 known him so long I was on the set of Titanic
    2:33:38 that’s how long I’ve been around this guy I was
    2:33:39 on the set of Titanic I was on the set with
    2:33:42 Sarah Connor and Arnold Schwarzenegger and Eddie
    2:33:45 Furlong for the 3d ride he made for Universal a
    2:33:48 few years later so I mean I feel like I’ve been
    2:33:52 around him a lot of his career and to be able to
    2:33:55 visit the set you know of avatar and remember him
    2:33:59 showing me like artwork they did very photo
    2:34:02 realistic and he goes curious to see how photo
    2:34:05 real it’ll be when we’re finally done with this
    2:34:06 process because you don’t get to see it till
    2:34:09 it’s almost done and I was like wow he’s just
    2:34:12 shooting blind he’s really talk about me
    2:34:14 shooting mariachi not seeing the footage he’s
    2:34:16 making this whole movie not even knowing what the
    2:34:18 end result’s gonna look like at all because
    2:34:20 you’re not gonna know till you get there and when
    2:34:22 you get there if you don’t like it there’s not a
    2:34:26 lot you can do so it’s just seeing him do that and
    2:34:28 have that success really made it easier for me to
    2:34:30 do Alita because then it’s like okay we don’t
    2:34:33 know again we don’t need to know we know we’ll get
    2:34:36 there but we don’t know how we’re gonna do it we’re
    2:34:39 gonna start and anything that I would come up with on
    2:34:41 this movie and his team because he had all his
    2:34:43 weather people working on it he had them all working
    2:34:48 on it too I do a fast version of his process because
    2:34:51 it’s a lot of live action avatars mostly CG I have
    2:34:54 live action sets you have to come to my studio because I
    2:34:57 still have the whole Alita city in my back lot well here
    2:35:00 the troublemaker studio yeah that’s where it was yeah it was
    2:35:03 shot here so when you go see my city I built it very
    2:35:06 resourceful this is weird it looks just like the town
    2:35:09 for mariachi it’s in my backyard I’m like it looks
    2:35:12 better than the town for mariachi yeah 90,000 it’s the
    2:35:14 biggest largest standing set in the country because
    2:35:17 sets are always mowed down for the next movie but I just
    2:35:19 kept it there so we should shoot it all the time for
    2:35:22 Mexico or South America or Europe or whatever it’s
    2:35:25 seven streets and we add it digitally above it the
    2:35:29 ceilings are 20 feet high you got to come see you don’t
    2:35:32 believe that it’s here it’s unbelievable where is it
    2:35:34 north of Austin it’s where the old airport was so it’s
    2:35:37 like on 51st street you know it’s like really close to
    2:35:39 town I would love to you gotta come see you’re not gonna
    2:35:42 believe it all my props all my stuff from all my movies so
    2:35:45 people who are you know investing in brass knuckle that’s why
    2:35:48 they say it’s like a Willy Wonka movie because they’re gonna
    2:35:51 get to come check out all that stuff and and and be in
    2:35:55 proximity and see oh like me with that painter it’s not a
    2:35:58 trick he’s just doing it I can then you realize you can do
    2:36:02 it too but um we thought let’s shoot mostly live
    2:36:05 action and we’ll just replace her but we still have to figure
    2:36:08 her out you have to cast the right actress and when I saw
    2:36:10 Rosa Salazar she was just amazing she made me cry in
    2:36:13 audition for the first time I was like oh my god this person
    2:36:16 has some if we can capture even a a fourth of her facial
    2:36:20 expression it’ll bring so much life and they got it one to
    2:36:27 one and uh it really helped Jim on the next Avatar and Weta because
    2:36:30 they got to try out a bunch of things that’s why Avatar the
    2:36:34 second Avatar Way of Water looks so much more refined than the
    2:36:37 first Avatar because of that middle step of doing Alita it was
    2:36:39 training ground for them can you actually educate me on the Weta
    2:36:43 process is this like a performance capture technology where I have
    2:36:48 her in a suit for capturing her body movements but also facial
    2:36:51 facial capture it’s a performance capture of all her performance all
    2:36:55 her emoting and we have witness cameras around everywhere to pick
    2:36:58 up where she is and everything else is real and we’re just replacing
    2:37:02 her but with someone even smaller in size so you have to erase everything
    2:37:05 behind her there’s like a bunch of technical things you need to do but the
    2:37:09 idea is to whatever performance she gives she’s such a great actress is to
    2:37:13 capture all of that because then this character that doesn’t even exist will
    2:37:17 feel very emotional and you have to you have to be tied to it you have to feel
    2:37:21 it’s hard she was the heartbeat of it so she’s acting with all this acting with
    2:37:23 all that but it just disappeared you know she’s not even it’s like it’s not
    2:37:27 even there like we don’t notice this year it’s like that she can just perform
    2:37:31 through it what was some interesting unique challenging things about you
    2:37:37 directing her performance in this in this kind of world I just I just knew she
    2:37:40 had to be her it was gonna be just so easy with her she’s just so great she
    2:37:44 everything was just so real and everything was like she’s that character she
    2:37:48 becomes that character who’s seen this world for the first time no special
    2:37:51 effects gonna help you with that if the performance isn’t there so it was all
    2:37:54 about getting the performance and casting the right actors that’s why you get
    2:38:01 Christoph Waltz there and you get Jennifer Connelly you know these masters are all in
    2:38:07 on the set Mahershala Ali you know you’ve got an amazing cast of people and that’s really
    2:38:12 the heart the heart of it so that the technology kind of goes away how hard is it to get the
    2:38:20 actors to act when like the full world is not around you we put so much of the world around
    2:38:24 them like when you see the city we put like a blue screen way in the back to just make the
    2:38:29 city keep going but we built the sets there the town we built the real set so everything was
    2:38:34 very tangible and real and that way she had to fit into that world and be as real as that
    2:38:40 because if it was all done in CG well then now you can fudge everything but if you put her in a real
    2:38:44 environment that’s a real challenge and that really helps them on avatar because that whole place is
    2:38:48 created an avatar you could get away with a lot but they wanted to commit to that kind of detail
    2:38:51 and on the next avatar that’s why it just feels like you’re really there
    2:38:57 it’s just stunning and you get there by having something to work on like this to take the
    2:39:02 technology to the next level so it was cool to be able to help you know uh knowing they should be
    2:39:07 helpful to him in his process and not just distracting him but then also he liked that his
    2:39:13 artist had something else to work on besides just avatar to just work on something you know different
    2:39:19 to freshen up their perspective on things and methodology and so yeah that was a really exciting
    2:39:23 movie to work on and that we got to shoot it here a jim cameron movie here in austin that was the best
    2:39:29 having him here and that my whole crew who’s worked with me 25 30 years everyone had an extra spring in
    2:39:34 this step because they’re like we’re working on a jim cameron movie i mean that’s just like a high bar
    2:39:38 of achievement for everybody you know working on it since we talked about a few other directors can you
    2:39:43 speak to the genius of james cameron like what what makes him special you talked about some of the
    2:39:49 difference in your approach in his uh he’s created some of the most special movies ever also what’s
    2:39:55 behind that what would you say is interesting about the way his creative mind works i think any of those
    2:40:02 guys george lucas you know him you know john lassner when he did pixar it’s a mix of and this is i got
    2:40:07 really lucky my first job was a photoshop because my dad had a friend who owned a photoshop he said
    2:40:13 your summer job when i was 16 go work for my friend mario so i go to mario’s photoshop and i’m you know
    2:40:19 developing pictures or you know think you develop photos from film and he said here take this camera
    2:40:23 home give me one of his cameras take this camera home and some film i need you to learn how to use the
    2:40:27 camera so you can help me sell the cameras yeah so i went home and you know i have a bunch of siblings
    2:40:32 so like well the stars are bedhead taking all these pictures of everybody i take it back and he looks at
    2:40:37 the pictures when he develops he’s like whoa these are really creative you’re a creative person
    2:40:44 sometimes people tell you something yeah that don’t you can’t unhear and he goes that’s a gift
    2:40:50 which you need to know now now you need to become technical because most creative people need
    2:40:52 technicians and technicians always need creative people because they’re not usually the same
    2:40:59 you’re born with creativity it’s against your nature to be technical but you can learn if you
    2:41:05 apply yourself and if you’re both technical and creative you’ll be unstoppable and i was like
    2:41:11 stop wow so here i want you to learn zone photography you know like i want you to learn this this the
    2:41:16 technical part of it so that’s why i didn’t take a crew mariachi because i knew if i’m just a creative
    2:41:23 person and i i need a crew to go actually technically make the movie i’ll always need something and when
    2:41:31 you want to really change your life you want to get your i need list down to little as possible
    2:41:35 because if you’re like well i want to shoot my movie but i need a cameraman and i need somebody
    2:41:40 who knows how to light it your i need list keeps growing that’s further and further and further you
    2:41:46 will be from what you need to accomplish so i kind of went down there without any help so that remember
    2:41:51 that script analogy where the guy said throw away three scripts i said no i’m gonna write three scripts
    2:41:55 and then shoot each one so i get better at each one of those jobs so i can learn to be technical
    2:42:01 my technical capability was so little like i’m literally calling the guy on the phone how do i
    2:42:06 use this camera you know that’s how little i knew about it but i knew by doing the job i would learn
    2:42:12 by being both that’s really the key so jim cameron is like that jim cameron when you think of those guys
    2:42:17 george lucas very technical and very creative john lastner very technical but very creative pixar
    2:42:23 jim cameron very technical very creative putting those two things together is really what sets you
    2:42:28 apart from other technicians and other creative people and it’s very very powerful a lot of creative
    2:42:32 people again it’s against their nature to be technical they don’t want to do it make yourself
    2:42:38 do it read the manuals take the lessons it frees you up because then you can go do like you know i just
    2:42:43 showed you in that demo you’re able to now be a technical person and creative and then you’re
    2:42:48 unstoppable he’s one of the best at it and he just knows how to craft a story he’s very analytical
    2:42:55 as well like we we bounce off each other in a funny way he goes man he came down to visit my studio
    2:43:03 before he did alita and he went you only surround yourself with people for like you like you exude
    2:43:08 creativity you know from every pore and so does everyone at your studio and i go yeah and everything
    2:43:11 i didn’t hire them that way on purpose but i think if you’re not that way you kind of know you don’t
    2:43:16 belong there and you kind of leave yeah and then i went to his studio and there are a bunch of jim
    2:43:22 camerons there they’re like oh my god they’re all very technical yeah you can’t get all kind of fuzzy
    2:43:27 with the with the logic or the you can’t get you can’t get really creative with the physics or anything
    2:43:33 they’re like no that’s not how it would work it would be like and they’re just wow super great at
    2:43:39 what they do bar is sky high and they’re all like that because yeah if you’re not part of it if you’re
    2:43:45 not like that you can’t hang with those guys you can’t hang with him very long i heard a story where
    2:43:50 the guitar case being a rocket launcher where to you you create this real world where everything is
    2:43:55 possible the magic feels real and for james cameron he has to know how a guitar case would work that
    2:43:59 would actually be able to double as a rocket launcher when i show him the trailer for greenhouse and he
    2:44:05 sees the machine gun laying all that he just goes whoa that’s unbridled filmmaking from the id it makes
    2:44:09 sense only the second you’re watching it not a second after but the second you’re watching and you
    2:44:16 believe it yeah but he’s uh he’s really interesting in that he’s so prolific i walked into his writing
    2:44:23 studio and it’d be like on one of the tables like do you have those papers there imagine them that thick
    2:44:29 that thick that thick all scripts scripts what are these he goes this is a whole you know space opera
    2:44:33 version of this movie we’re not making that one it’s like he’s just cranking out stuff like again
    2:44:40 can i take this and go yeah right yeah we bounced off each other because i loved his analytical part
    2:44:44 of his brain i’m not that analytical i’m just kind of like hey i’m really creative feeling i’m like
    2:44:50 whoo i’ll go this way and then we will go that way and he likes that about me but i like i put it i
    2:44:56 i want to because i think about things too much like you think about things like what makes a movie
    2:45:02 a billion dollar hit what are the elements that you need and i’m going to analyze that and i’m going to
    2:45:09 make sure my movie does that and he engineers a submarine that can break the world record he
    2:45:13 engineers a movie that can break the world record you know he’s like he has that engineering mind but
    2:45:19 the creative part that’s very rare so that’s very rare and he’s capitalized on both he had this submarine
    2:45:25 model like this big on his desk the one that he broke the world record for going and just seeing
    2:45:31 it and knowing him have kids and stuff and wife and i’m like weren’t you afraid going down there with
    2:45:38 you know something could happen it’s like no i wasn’t afraid like why not because i designed the
    2:45:43 escape vehicle yeah if it was any other bozo i’d be afraid but he designed the escape that kind of
    2:45:49 confidence that’s him he just knows if some other bozo had designed the escape vehicle i would be
    2:45:55 afraid but total confidence because he did it the confidence of extreme competence is brilliant just
    2:46:01 to get you like excited about how creative this stuff is so desperado was the only movie on the sony lot
    2:46:09 being edited digitally not only was i editing on a computer i was editing in my house which in 1994 was
    2:46:13 just unheard of so i’m there in my house and they made me cut in la because they were because at first
    2:46:17 i told the studio i want to edit desperado myself because it’s important that i edit it they go no you
    2:46:25 can’t why not we’ve never had a director edit his own movie here so we don’t want to set a precedent
    2:46:32 case they thought it would give you too much power so this is the power of precedent i said well you
    2:46:38 bought mariachi and i edited that so i said okay but you’re gonna have to edit in la so we can watch
    2:46:43 we don’t think you know what you’re doing we saw the footage and the shots are really short it’s too
    2:46:48 short i was like shots are too short oh because i was shooting my cuts you know like they’re used to
    2:46:52 seeing footage of antonio walks into the bar and it’s going to be a dialogue scene they expect the
    2:46:56 whole thing done from a wide shot i would shoot the wide shot he walks in cut move the camera let’s
    2:47:00 get over here because we wanted to because i’m not going to use it for the rest of the scene i know
    2:47:02 we’re going to get into coverage because i’ve already cut it so i was like huh that’s interesting
    2:47:06 so i cut the first scene if you’ve ever seen desperado the first scene is the best scene
    2:47:08 steve was telling the story he’s talking about the myth of the mariachi
    2:47:12 he’s doing oh yeah it’s crazy it’s crazy great scene so then they come over i say you come see
    2:47:19 my first scene so they come over to my house they watch it okay you know what you’re doing but i was
    2:47:23 cutting desperado in my house that i rented there and then we shot dusk till dawn at the same time so i
    2:47:27 was cutting desperado four rooms and dusk till dawn myself i’m the editor i don’t have an editing team
    2:47:33 other than the ones who import it into the machine so del toro came over soderberg came over
    2:47:38 can i borrow it for schizophilus that no one had heard of somebody having an avid in their living
    2:47:44 room jim comes over and he goes i hear you have an avid in your living room and i go yeah come check it
    2:47:49 out i’m just like i roll out of bed it’s like something’s unremarkable because that’s what you
    2:47:55 do right now but back in 94 it was unheard of i’m cutting three movies at the same time myself i roll out
    2:48:01 bed i come here i can cut desperado and cut dust till then he went that’s it i hate working with
    2:48:06 editors you know when i was doing terminator 2 they wouldn’t even let me put the bad to the bone song
    2:48:10 in terminator 2 because they didn’t think it would work and i had to sneak into the edit room at night
    2:48:15 on the weekend to cut it in then show them the next day it’s like that’s your own movie you can’t give
    2:48:19 that kind of power to people he said i hate working with editors i’m gonna i’m gonna do this i’m gonna
    2:48:23 tear down a wall in my house i’m gonna put it in avid i’m gonna cut my next movie yeah and he did he
    2:48:27 got an oscar for editing titanic can’t do other editors but now no one ever took him for a ride
    2:48:32 like that again he edits on every movie he has other editors but he can go do his own cuts when
    2:48:38 he shows me like footage he’s showing me himself on his own machine and it’s like again it gives you
    2:48:43 all those tools to be able to really find your vision that you’re looking for because you can’t
    2:48:47 always explain it to somebody because you don’t always know yourself it’s part you kind of come up
    2:48:51 with it as you do the process it’s just a small tangent about the different software and the
    2:48:55 technologies involved so you mentioned avid as premiere pro premiere was still in its early
    2:49:00 stages then i think soderberg looked at it and it said yeah i can’t afford an avid for this movie i’m
    2:49:05 gonna go do it i think he started cutting on premiere but um i’m sure it’s all better now i just have
    2:49:10 always used an avid because i just always read it back to the same production i think i’ve just i i don’t
    2:49:13 have to buy a new one but there’s lots of goods i’ve heard about all kinds of systems i just use the
    2:49:18 same one i guess that’s the question i have for you it’s just interesting for people it’s very
    2:49:22 interesting to me just the the details use avid like what do you like multiple monitors one
    2:49:27 monitor i have a couple monitors and then one big monitor to watch it if i’m watching the scene back
    2:49:31 because the monitors are still a little wacky i mean if i were to design my own system i’d probably
    2:49:37 design it differently but i’m literally i’ve worked on that thing since 94 i still don’t know all the
    2:49:43 shortcuts and all this shit i still use it like my tape deck play rewind pause and i can cut so fast
    2:49:49 with that just i don’t use the mouse for shortcuts i’m just like so you found your way yeah preferred
    2:49:55 way the workflow of using it and now you can sort of let go of the technical and then be creative
    2:49:58 yeah just be creative it’s just a tool it’s just a tool and it’s like it doesn’t matter which system
    2:50:03 it is it’s like if you can get it to work for you great like there’s a lot of problems i have with it
    2:50:06 that i would i know are probably fixed on another system but that they’ll have a whole other set of
    2:50:11 problems so it’s like well why bother with that you know there’s limitations i think that it has that
    2:50:16 would need to be fixed but not for what i’m doing i mean i can still do what i need it feels like
    2:50:21 part of the artistry is every system has limitations and you learn how to work around those limitations
    2:50:28 i mean oh yeah well every single thing my first vcrs like those things those things were i was always
    2:50:33 known for taking what little basic equipment and milking the shit out of it what it could pushing the
    2:50:39 boundaries of what it can do and now it’s flipped now you’re working on a program and you can spend 10
    2:50:43 years on this thing and you’re scratching the surface of what it’s capable of it’s totally
    2:50:48 flipped the other way i’m not milking anything anymore i’m i’m barely getting you know the smallest
    2:50:54 capability of it because i would have to spend a lot of time to figure out all the stuff that it can
    2:50:58 possibly do and i’m sure it’s all great fantastic stuff but what a different world than when i grew up
    2:51:04 where it was like okay let me splice these two sound things together and it was so hard to get
    2:51:08 it to do where people would be like you got that movie out of that equipment where now it’s the other
    2:51:13 way around you know it’s like all this equipment is great so when people come to me and say i’ve got
    2:51:18 well i’ve only got this camera i was like that camera’s 10 times better than anything i had for my
    2:51:24 first 15 years of filmmaking so you have no complaints this is like you can just start now and just start
    2:51:29 making stuff uh i have a lot of friends who are huge fans of your uh movies so one of them asked
    2:51:34 me that i absolutely must ask you do you know if there’s a sequel of elita coming we’re working on it
    2:51:39 we’re definitely working on it jim and i both want to make it that’s usually when we meet we talk about
    2:51:45 it um i gave him something to read you know he’s a little busy with his avatar movie but i’m gonna get
    2:51:49 i’m gonna see him again soon and we’ll see where it’s at but we would love to make another one we have
    2:51:54 ideas on how to do it because it was always built to be a trilogy and uh he sees that there’s a lot
    2:52:00 of love for it it was just weird because it was fox movie and they got bought by disney you know and
    2:52:04 then so they weren’t really making fox movies because they had enough disney had enough work
    2:52:08 with their disney movies but now they’re starting to make some fox movies like they did deadpool and
    2:52:15 some fox movies are starting to get made so time might be right for us to come back and do it alita
    2:52:22 no i hope you do soon it’s uh but it is i mean you do so many different kinds of movies that’s a whole
    2:52:26 different kind of puzzle right yeah no but it’s not a bad one it’s a good it’s a cool it’s one
    2:52:32 one of the few like usually i made kids family kids kids movies or r-rated action horror movies and that
    2:52:36 was the first time i got to do a pg-13 movie which was kind of like it had a lot of action but it was for
    2:52:41 families could watch it too and it’s kind of like the best of all worlds have to ask you about sin
    2:52:47 city one of my favorite films of all time it was a visually stunning world what are some maybe
    2:52:54 interesting detailed aspects about you creating that world this is why you just got to follow your
    2:52:58 nose and go do something you know jim and i were both into 3d early on like i visited his set for the
    2:53:05 terminator 3d ride just till dawn i wanted to be 3d actually when they got to the bar if you watch from
    2:53:08 that point on everything’s kind of set up for 3d everything was shooting into the camera and all
    2:53:14 this but the cameras they had for 3d and film were those old shitty ones that were so bad that i went
    2:53:18 okay we can’t do it but i really wanted people to have to put on glasses when they got into the bar
    2:53:23 and it was going to turn into a 3d different movie i got to do that on spike it’s 3d
    2:53:30 so when i did spike it’s 3d i thought oh if i get jim’s cameras that he’s done for these underwater
    2:53:39 3d you know documentaries i can make the first digital 3d film for theaters and so i did and it
    2:53:43 seemed like the easiest way was to utilize that when you put on the glasses when you go into a game
    2:53:47 world so there’s a green screen and we shot all the actors on green screen for all the game stuff and
    2:53:53 we can do a lot of 3d stuff coming at kids faces when they’re reaching my 3d is is not like the kind
    2:53:58 they have in theaters where it’s very polite mine’s like theme park 3d where kids are doing
    2:54:03 like that trying to grab that’s why it was such a big hit nobody does 3d like that but i wanted that
    2:54:07 i want shit falling in people’s laps you know so you remember so you go okay this is why i’m wearing
    2:54:13 the glasses and i’m wondering why and when i went to go make my next movie so this is how crazy is what
    2:54:19 we shot spike is 3d remember actually how fast they came out that was in the summer of 2003 a few
    2:54:24 months later once upon a time mexico came out two number one movies both were finishing
    2:54:32 trilogies of mine and each one starred antonio danny trejo cheech marin when i was editing those
    2:54:35 at the same time you’d be like whoa they’re killing people and the other ones are like with the kids
    2:54:41 going like hey family so it was really you know fun it was fun to it’s easier to do very different
    2:54:45 things than to do like two action movies or two family movies at the same time but i was like okay
    2:54:51 what’s my next movie going to be oh shit how crazy is this okay so antonio is on the set i’m going to
    2:54:57 shoot him out in half a day for spike is 3d because he’s only in the last scenes on the green screen
    2:55:01 shoot him till lunch okay now go away put on your desperado outfit because we owed some shots for once
    2:55:06 upon a time mexico on the green screen he finished two trilogies in the same day that’s gotta be a
    2:55:12 first if ever no one’s ever finished two trilogies in the same day and it’s just kismet you know it’s
    2:55:18 just how it happened to happen that day was just luck or the universe or whatever but i needed to
    2:55:24 make something new now so i was looking through my bookshelves of inspiration and i picked up my sin
    2:55:29 city books which i’ve had i used to be a cartoonist and i always loved how he drew that every time i’d
    2:55:33 see a different edition i’d buy it go home and go oh i already have this i got like three copies of this
    2:55:38 already it would just always grab me by the throat and i liked that he was a writer director in a way
    2:55:42 because he would not just wrote the comic but he drew it too a lot of times it’s a different writer
    2:55:47 or different comic artist he’s like a real like a kinship you know this is someone who writes and
    2:55:52 directs his own thing but i was looking at it and i went oh shit i know how to do this now i just did
    2:55:56 it on the green screen if i shoot this on green screen the actors on green screen i can make the
    2:56:01 backgrounds look just like this and i can contrast up the actors and i could get this very graphic look
    2:56:06 which sometimes for a window it’s just a white box so it’s even got a sliding scale for budget
    2:56:11 if i run out of money just put the actors in black and white just put like a white dot behind him for
    2:56:18 street light and that looks just like the book so i’m going to bring the book to life so i’ll show you
    2:56:25 how fast we go from development at troublemaker it was october once upon a time mexico would come out
    2:56:32 i was like oh shit i know how to do this now sin city i’m gonna do a test i went to my green screen
    2:56:34 here in my studio you’ll see my green screen where i shot all these movies
    2:56:39 and i shot you know my sister myself put it black and white
    2:56:46 looks just like the comic but it’s moving so i i call a a comic book artist friend of mine
    2:56:51 mike allred and i said uh do you have frank miller’s number and he goes yeah i do okay i’m gonna call
    2:56:56 whoops i call frank miller hey it’s rob rodriguez i have a test i’m gonna show you for sin city i’m
    2:57:01 gonna be in new york tomorrow he’s like tomorrow okay yeah sure come by meet me at this bar okay
    2:57:08 book a flight for new york i fly up there i have my laptop just like this yeah that’s good i go to the
    2:57:15 bar i show him what looks like an image from his comic and it starts moving and he’s like wow how did
    2:57:19 you do that i said i got my own studio and all this and then i started telling man let’s make this movie
    2:57:25 because no one had the rights to it he never gave the rights to a studio a lot of comics oh wonder
    2:57:30 brothers bought this a while back you know or then you got to go through the studio he still owned his
    2:57:35 own rights in fact he’d gotten burned by hollywood so many times as a screenwriter that he said fuck
    2:57:40 it i’m gonna go back and draw a comic that’s so raw that can never be made into a movie so of course i
    2:57:45 call him hey let’s make a great movie so i show him how we can do it and i go i know you don’t know
    2:57:49 me and you’re not gonna you’re gonna have to earn i have to earn your trust for you to give me your
    2:57:57 baby uh but we can make this right away and he’s like uh he’s all excited for about two seconds and
    2:58:03 then he goes oh no then we gotta write a script and the studio’s gonna have notes all that shit he’s
    2:58:07 been through before and it’s not like that i have a whole different setup i got my own studio in austin
    2:58:12 this is how it’s gonna be if you like this idea i’m gonna you’re not gonna have to take any risk
    2:58:18 let me take all the risk i’m gonna go write the script myself next month it’s gonna be unremarkable
    2:58:20 because i’m gonna write it right out of your book i’m gonna just go to i’m gonna edit three of the
    2:58:24 stories down i’m gonna just take stuff out really it might add a few things to connect it but i’ll
    2:58:29 write the script in december myself no money involved then we’ll call some actor friends of mine
    2:58:34 we’ll have them come to my green screen we’ll shoot the opening scene as a test but it’s also the
    2:58:40 opening scene i’ll do the effects myself i’ll do the sound do the music i’ll do fake credits
    2:58:46 we’ll watch it together if you like what you see we’ll make the movie you give me the rights then
    2:58:50 if you don’t like it keep it it’s a short film to show your friends
    2:58:56 let’s be really cool so he’s like all right there’s nothing on him to do it’s all on me i write the script
    2:59:03 in december january josh harnett marley shelton come down fly frank in shooting for 10 hours on my
    2:59:08 green screen we shoot that opening sequence incredible opening sequence record his voice
    2:59:13 over right then in my little voiceover booth marley shelton comes up why did i hire him to kill me
    2:59:18 i don’t know let’s go ask frank he’s right here let’s go ask frank i want to know myself so he tells
    2:59:24 her and he’s like i want to do this movie he’s already as i tell you frank i used to be a cartoonist
    2:59:29 it’s the same thing you’re already a director you’re just using a pen instead of a camera the performances
    2:59:35 you get out of your paper actors are phenomenal the shots you do are like beyond any dps ever done
    2:59:40 and the visual look we’ve never seen that i want to just take this and make it move i just want the
    2:59:45 comic to move any other studio would just go make it look like any gritty crime movie and they would
    2:59:49 they would miss the point that it’s the visual is half of it i want it to look just like this because
    2:59:53 it would be the boldest movie anyone’s seen because that’s how it reads when i read the book it’s like
    2:59:59 if this was moving it would be the most phenomenal movie in fact i asked him do you ever feel like
    3:00:03 directing any any of these short ones i thought about directing the big fat kill maybe as a short
    3:00:07 film you should come direct that one shit you should direct all of them with me because i’m really copying
    3:00:11 it right out of the book you should direct it with me all right let’s go so then uh january okay so
    3:00:17 remember i met him in november i wrote it in december january we shoot the test took me a couple weeks
    3:00:23 to do the effects he loves it i make a meeting with bruce willis show it to bruce willis what’s so
    3:00:28 cool about doing that opening scene is that any actor i show it to now i show him the book which is
    3:00:33 awesome you’d be playing this character but look at this test let me show you the book what it looked
    3:00:41 like before i turned this test into a test watches it josh arnett voiceover music titles come on
    3:00:46 first name on the screen bruce willis and i go hey look you’re in the credits you have to do it now
    3:00:53 manifesting it right he’s like shit man this is great i’m in he’s in wow go get everyone else from
    3:01:03 that was just easy to get and we were filming the movie so february right building the few little sets
    3:01:06 we had like the bar i told frank we don’t need to build a bar but i’m gonna go ahead and build a bar
    3:01:09 so we have a place to go have script meetings everything else will be green screen we’ll build
    3:01:14 fake steps and things out of green so we’re doing that and i’m casting the first one we’re shooting the
    3:01:18 movie by march the beginning of march and i remember because my son was born march 3rd
    3:01:27 and i was in la for his birth because i was also recording the orchestra for the score i wrote
    3:01:34 somehow in the past few months for kill bill 2 that’s how much stuff was going on yeah yeah you know
    3:01:41 that’s like when you just let it flow you’re just riding the wave you’re not doing any of that
    3:01:48 so that’s what’s by staying in that like urgent there’s always the deadlines are just pushing you
    3:01:53 to create stuff and we shot the movie so fast in record time now not only that i shot a whole other
    3:01:58 movie that year i shot the adventures of shark boy and lava girl with kids that came out two months
    3:02:02 after sin city the next year within less than a year sin city was out you’re shooting that and then
    3:02:05 parallel with sin city that’s hilarious that great yeah like sometimes we’d be shooting with the kids
    3:02:09 and then the afternoon rudger howard would come and some of the sin city girls to finish you know
    3:02:14 shooting stuff that we needed to film it was just insane how fast we had to move i was doing it in my
    3:02:23 i was editing i just edited it and then i would scan the uh artwork into the uh computer and i would edit
    3:02:28 the storyboards with the sound effects and i would do the voiceover i would imitate mickey and i would
    3:02:33 imitate bruce and lay out the how fast it was going to move and you were like wow so now we have a
    3:02:38 template with the real drawings and the lighting on how we’re going to do it as funny as i i could do
    3:02:42 pretty good in bruce willis because i know in his career so long if you’re doing his voiceover and he
    3:02:47 would hear my guide voice for the timing and be like is that me is that you can’t tell
    3:02:55 that was me but just do that man it sounds like me first of all why haven’t films like that been
    3:03:01 made well it’s a very specific look because it went to that comic the first piece of music i wrote for
    3:03:04 that was the main title and i called it descent i wanted the notes to descend because it felt like
    3:03:08 you were descending into this dark world and you don’t come out to the end of the movie you’re just
    3:03:14 like in this world where all these layers of unreality like water doesn’t photograph that
    3:03:18 way snow doesn’t but it’s there and you’re seeing and you’re seeing the actors so you’re just really
    3:03:24 it’s like a dream world yeah so i was really into it and i did tests for the most difficult shots first
    3:03:30 like how do i get his his tape to glow in the dark like in the comics what’s still in the shadow and i
    3:03:35 realized oh use fluorescent tape and a fluorescent light that way i can keep it we can still key it like i
    3:03:41 started just doing my own visual effects like that early on because i knew technology was changing so
    3:03:48 fast that i would need to just know how to do it like i’m like a magician shooting digital nobody wanted
    3:03:52 to touch digital back then dps were all afraid of digital they didn’t have to learn something new so i
    3:03:59 had to dp it so me photographing it i’m like it’s so fun to cut because i mean to to light like you have
    3:04:03 to have that light out of frame right now but i could bring the lights in right here as long as it was
    3:04:08 they’re not crossing it i’m just going to take it out of the green anyway so i could have the
    3:04:12 coolest light on everybody cool edge lights you can have an edge light back here an edge light back
    3:04:17 here a fill light here but you don’t erase them i just take him out can you educate me and people
    3:04:23 curious about this like what is the power of light when you’re telling a story when you’re creating a
    3:04:28 feeling and experience like what’s the artistry of that well if you look at the drawings too sometimes
    3:04:33 it’s the absence of light like you would see this face but then this would be completely black but
    3:04:37 you would still see my eye yeah which is like impossible right but you believe it when you see
    3:04:42 it because it’s there so things like that were a lot of the tricks i tried first because i like that about
    3:04:47 it it’s like you have a guy completely backlit so there’s no light on his face but yet his glasses
    3:04:51 are glowing white yeah so we’d put fluorescent tape in there hit that with a light then we could turn it
    3:04:57 white later the black and white really helps and then just upping the contrast but i mean it’s just
    3:05:01 something that you have a feeling for but you’re able to try it in fact when i took it to george
    3:05:06 lucas who george lucas said this to me early on because i was we’re the only guy shooting digital
    3:05:13 he said man it’s so good you live in austin that’s why i’m in marin county because when you live outside of
    3:05:18 this box of la hollywood you think outside of the box automatically you’re just going to stumble
    3:05:22 upon innovations and he was right it was like yeah what’s this why why aren’t we shooting digital
    3:05:25 let’s shoot digital why are we shooting digital 3d let’s do that why don’t we just use green screen
    3:05:30 for the background you just start innovating because you’re away from anyone saying hey you can’t do it
    3:05:35 that way which they would say if i was in la so we just came up with a whole other method so i took
    3:05:41 him sin city to check out the first thing i was going to show at comic-con he said um now this will
    3:05:46 really show people what digital is capable of this really shows how avant-garde you can get with that
    3:05:53 that you could never have done that on film you know and so by me versing myself in that technology
    3:05:57 early i was able to make a movie like that and then everyone had to play catch-up you know so
    3:06:02 you should always just follow your that’s why if people say don’t use those curtains as i’m gonna work
    3:06:06 just blow past those guys go innovate your own thing because
    3:06:13 sometimes not knowing is better you know being too naive to like don’t you know you shouldn’t have
    3:06:17 been able to make that movie that way people with people would say like that how did you make
    3:06:21 march for seven thousand dollars just you know it’s impossible it’s like why do you keep using
    3:06:26 that word because it can’t be impossible if i did it because i’m not that smart and it’s like saying
    3:06:32 how did you get to the top of mount everest it’s impossible well i just kept walking i didn’t realize
    3:06:36 it was kind of at a slope i didn’t really realize it was going up that high yeah you you’ve talked about
    3:06:42 like a big part of your approach to filmmaking to life is manifesting manifesting the reality you want
    3:06:49 in fact i should sort of comment and i’d love to ask you about manifesting that you asked me at the
    3:06:54 beginning of this conversation do you consider yourself a creative person i should just sort of
    3:06:58 reflect on that because i was very uncomfortable answering that yeah i noticed a little bit and i was
    3:07:03 like i’m gonna i’m gonna free you up so that you’re never uncomfortable again it’s scary to say that
    3:07:07 about about yourself because you think there’s a lot of there’s a lot of people who go well you’re
    3:07:10 not an artist you’re not a creative but no you’re not saying i’m an artist i’m saying i’m a creative
    3:07:15 person but that’s an artist too isn’t it no you artist isn’t necessarily a guy with a the french
    3:07:19 mustache and the funny hat that’s not necessarily what art artists are regular people yeah and regular
    3:07:23 people relate to art that’s imperfect if you can make art that’s perfect don’t want to relate to it
    3:07:29 so when you think about it like that you go well i can make imperfect art so yeah i’m an artist and if
    3:07:33 you have doubt you’re an artist that’s an artist real artists always wonder if they’re good enough
    3:07:39 so you are an artist just by the fact that you had uncomfortable saying it you’re a real artist
    3:07:45 yeah and there’s some degree i don’t know if you could speak to this but um you know there’s a fear of
    3:07:52 creating shitty things you know i’ve created a lot of really shitty things in my life and it always feels
    3:07:58 like that’s really important to do okay but you’re judging something that that you have no business
    3:08:04 judging right like i have so many people that’s why i like making movies on purpose that have less
    3:08:10 money and less time on purpose like the biggest movie i said all time on netflix is we can be heroes i
    3:08:13 told them i don’t want to spend more than 50 million dollars i know you all want to give me 80
    3:08:18 but i want to be a hero and come in at 50 because one it’ll make it better and then two you’ll make
    3:08:22 three of them instead of just one i don’t want to just go spend the farm and how many filmmakers
    3:08:26 that do that don’t try to get as much money as they can but when you’re spending less it’s a win-win
    3:08:30 situation and you have more creative freedom because they’re going to leave you alone you can do whatever
    3:08:35 you want so i i like the creative limitations that come from less money that’s why i like brass knuckle
    3:08:40 films like we’re going to make them for less so that they are better not because they’re not to make
    3:08:46 them shitty so many people have come up to me and said um you know what part i love in your movie
    3:08:51 you know tell me some scene i’m like oh well that’s because we ran out of sun and we had to like
    3:08:57 do that jump with just him jumping on a pad three times or whatever it is it’s something that you fumbled
    3:09:02 together and that’s what they’re drawn to they’re drawn to that imperfect thing and so i wouldn’t judge
    3:09:07 it because somebody’s you know if you called your movie shitty that’s like john carpenter saying yeah
    3:09:13 nobody liked the thing and it’s a shitty movie and everyone hated it so it must not be good
    3:09:18 and then 10 years later it’s a masterpiece so don’t judge it because if you words we use on
    3:09:26 ourselves are very powerful so if you say well you know i’m kind of an artist sometimes i make a lot
    3:09:31 of shitty stuff well that’s gonna that’s gonna be your lot in life you know i i’m pretty good shape
    3:09:36 for a director it’s not because i’m operating the camera because i work out right but i always hated
    3:09:44 working out i was not into sports i was a filmmaker i was a cartoonist in high school i was really tall
    3:09:48 they would say come work come be in our team we need it’s a small school we need you and i don’t
    3:09:53 know how to play any of these things i’m an artist there’s a line in the faculty that was my line to
    3:09:56 my coaches when they would say you got to come run with everybody i would say i don’t think a person
    3:10:01 should run unless he’s being chased i get that to the to the elijah wood character because that’s the guy
    3:10:07 i identified with he’s there with this camera and that was me so i hated it and then because i had i
    3:10:12 was a cartoonist you know drawing like this for hours four hours my back would go out like out for a
    3:10:16 month it would just go out from being so tall and crunched over and then when i started making movies
    3:10:21 operating the camera doing steady cam every year would go out to where i would need cortisone shots
    3:10:28 to get up again if i’m filming or just be out for a month and on spy kids 2 ricardo montalban
    3:10:33 had bad back surgery that that went wrong and he was in a wheelchair so he’s in a wheelchair and i’m
    3:10:41 in a walker and he’s like i’m 84 what’s your excuse and i was like i i don’t know i just was operating
    3:10:45 steady goes you have to work out robert you have to work out i was like yeah okay yeah i know i know
    3:10:50 and so then i thought okay next year i’m working with stallone last stallone last stallone
    3:10:55 how do you get in shape because i need to get in shape my back’s always going out he goes get the
    3:11:00 trainer anyone who ever saw in hollywood got in shape they had a trainer i say even you everybody
    3:11:05 oh i need a trainer he has a trainer so no i need a trainer i can’t train it’s like well shit if
    3:11:10 you can’t even train on your own then what what do us mortal men have so i got a trainer and guess
    3:11:14 what happened hated it i would feel sick when he’s coming over because i hate i hate working it
    3:11:21 and then um some years of doing that i just i can’t stand it but i know it’s good for my health so
    3:11:25 the desire is there so if you can’t accomplish something in your life it’s not a lack of desire
    3:11:31 like if you want to be more creative it’s not a lack of desire it’s a lack of identity like you’re like
    3:11:35 the fact that you went you were comfortable about saying creative it’s because there’s a lack of
    3:11:40 identity there you have lots of desire you got to get the identity up and then suddenly you’re you’re
    3:11:45 making you’re making shit so i a friend of mine from mexico she comes over i have to stop smoking
    3:11:51 my doctor said i have to stop smoking for my health so i have to i’m not smoking right now so i’ve been
    3:11:55 smoking since i was eight years old he said well you’re gonna go back to smoking because you just
    3:12:00 told me your identity is a smoker so right now you’re a smoker who’s not smoking what’s gonna happen
    3:12:06 eventually you have to say i’m a non-smoker you know like just that that lesson i’ve forgotten
    3:12:11 you have to say i’m a non-smoker i’m a non-smoker it’s what does a non-smoker do if you believe you’re
    3:12:16 a non-smoker you hate smoke start choking at the smell of smoke okay i’ll try that she walks off
    3:12:23 i go shit i forgot about my own i wonder where in my life i could apply that working out of course my
    3:12:28 god i hate working out no wonder i am so miserable i’ll tell my trainer and anyone who will listen
    3:12:35 i can’t stand working out i don’t understand sports so that day i said i’m an athlete i’m an
    3:12:41 athlete yeah that’s the last thing i would ever call myself all through my entire life this was 2012
    3:12:49 i’m an athlete by the next day not only did my life completely change and it’s easier if it’s opposite
    3:12:54 day like if you’re just doing it by degrees that’s bullshit you got to go complete opposite
    3:13:00 because if there’s like a donut you know if you say well i’m gonna only half of it you got to go
    3:13:06 no i’m gonna get an apple opposite day much easier not only did i change my life working out i didn’t
    3:13:11 ever needed a trainer i have not had a trainer since all those years because i’m an athlete i’ll just do
    3:13:17 what does an athlete do an athlete loves working out an athlete will make time to work out and they’ll
    3:13:22 eat right i was i would never be the person that would call themselves an athlete but that’s how much
    3:13:28 it can change your life by changing your identity so if you want to be more creative you’ve you’ve
    3:13:32 already got that in your that desire you’ve got enough of that you don’t need more desire you need
    3:13:38 more identity so you got to say i’m a creative person with a straight face with a straight face so
    3:13:42 when i say hey are you going to be are you a creative person you go yeah because then if you say
    3:13:46 that what do you do you’re going to do more creative stuff because that’s what a creative person does
    3:13:50 it doesn’t make sense to me how manifesting works but it does seem to work like basically
    3:13:56 visualizing visualizing a path towards a certain kind of future i guess everything around you
    3:14:02 everything within you kind of makes way for that makes way for the possibility of that it’s weird
    3:14:06 it’s weird but it kind of it’s a kind of a nice to know that you can do that but you have to just
    3:14:14 have that conviction and just say start with a label yeah the r yeah the double r or the label you just
    3:14:19 give yourself like i changed my label my label was i hate working out i’m an athlete i’m an athlete i’m
    3:14:24 not a non-athlete anymore i’m changing my label and you get so inspired because now you know what to do
    3:14:29 because you can’t help but conform to your identity you’re always going to conform to your identity so
    3:14:33 just change your identity and you’ll change your life but and it’s not that hard i didn’t have to go
    3:14:38 get hypnotized or anything it was literally i just told myself if i could do that go from a guy who
    3:14:43 doesn’t want to work out hates it hates it i had the desire i was already hiring the guy
    3:14:48 i lacked the identity as soon as i changed my identity boom well one of the things for me like
    3:14:52 that is probably music just playing guitar are you a musician yeah music
    3:15:00 i would definitely not i mean i’m i’m going along with it now but if we’re honestly if we’re just
    3:15:04 you wouldn’t have said i wouldn’t have said but i heard you rip on fucking guitar and i’ve heard you
    3:15:09 play it kind of amazing in all different kinds of contexts oh but i i should be like freaking
    3:15:13 santana by now because i’ve had a guitar in my hands since i was a kid but since i’m not a full-time
    3:15:21 musician i don’t get to play it that often so i’m not as good as i should be but you know when you
    3:15:26 apply yourself to just rehearse for you know a couple shows you book some shows look at this this is me
    3:15:32 just like playing our first arena show opening for george lopez that was crazy to be on the stages
    3:15:37 where you’re heroes that you saw them now you’re seeing what their point of view was it blows your
    3:15:41 mind you need to just get on stage you get on stage once and you’ll see that it’s not as bad as you
    3:15:45 think you’re not you’re not like terrified because you’re playing pretty complicated things i’ve seen
    3:15:50 you play live yeah and i mess up a bunch of times but you don’t want to focus on that and you just go
    3:15:54 like okay i got it through because when you’re up there it’s not that you’re like screaming nervous but
    3:15:58 your hands will just won’t work anymore something will happen but that happens to everybody if you
    3:16:03 really watch even the best in their live performances watch really close and you see they screw up a
    3:16:07 couple things but you just want to notice they just go right through it it’s like it’s about the live
    3:16:14 performance and that’s how you know it’s real so i think if you can really just lean into it more
    3:16:18 change really work on the identity part because you’ve got the desire you want to play guitar
    3:16:25 but as soon as you say yeah but i can’t play live you just chopped off your leg at the start of the
    3:16:32 race if you say i i don’t know you just chopped off your you’re doing this to yourself yeah you’re
    3:16:37 literally doing this to yourself i mean just you i mean anybody who’s just like who pauses who hesitates
    3:16:42 you don’t have to have doubts why would you have a doubt because you know the process now it’s like
    3:16:46 if i don’t know how to do something i know how to figure it out like i didn’t know how i was going to do
    3:16:52 that scene with him jumping and flipping i didn’t know that but do i have doubt that i’m going to go
    3:16:57 in there and be able to do it if you if you say that you do you now you’re a doubtful person that’s
    3:17:01 how powerful that is but if you say no i don’t have any doubt because i know i’m going to figure it out
    3:17:07 when i get there somehow it’ll fall in my lap i trust the process you don’t have to you don’t have
    3:17:12 to know so if you trust the process that you’ll figure it out but here’s the thing like sometimes
    3:17:18 you fail and there’s audience yeah then you get four rooms yeah yeah and then what happens
    3:17:22 right don’t blink is the don’t blink and then you go sift through the failure yeah exactly you go wait
    3:17:27 a minute what did i get out of that yeah i’ve done that a bunch it’s great look what’s the worst that
    3:17:32 can happen you go on a stage and you bomb it’s not going to be the first stage and it’s one of those you
    3:17:36 can talk about so that when you do the next one and it all sometimes they all go right i’ve had a
    3:17:42 couple shows we did we did a couple shows where we had video cameras set up for the second day let’s
    3:17:46 say let’s not film the first day because we’re going to be freaking just finding our feet let’s film the
    3:17:54 second day first day it was fucking flawless flawless because no cameras it’s like you just go second day
    3:17:59 we’re we weren’t as into it as we had just done it it felt like the second take you know it just didn’t
    3:18:04 have magic and that’s the one that’s recorded and we’re like oh kicking ourselves we didn’t film
    3:18:11 both nights we should have filmed both nights i love how much of a mess this human existence life
    3:18:18 is yeah uh you’ve talked about the importance of journaling because so living is reliving i love
    3:18:23 that phrase i came up with that because it’s like wow i see so many people who get after you for like
    3:18:29 filming a concert and they go live in the moment i’m like dude counterintuitive the moment goes by like
    3:18:35 this yeah we’re not gonna remember any of this the fact that we taped it thank god because later on
    3:18:39 it’s gonna be a file photo of me remembering you three pound me computer all i’m gonna have is a file
    3:18:46 photo you may be in a suit and you picturing me and maybe a black t-shirt and the metadata narrative is
    3:18:52 gonna say had a great talk about if we remember creativity you know like your brain doesn’t remember
    3:18:59 but when i pull up old home movies like show my kids that i just found and they’re like they don’t
    3:19:05 remember it i don’t remember filming it and it’s like new adventures of it becomes iconic and it sticks
    3:19:09 in our head and all our jokes are based on old things that we used to do and say so reliving living is
    3:19:13 reliving so keeping a journal is very important because i found that anything that passed 15 years
    3:19:17 on it’s like i’m reading someone else’s journal i’m like i didn’t even know that’s where i got that
    3:19:22 i thought i bought that guitar it was given to me it’s like a ten thousand dollars santana it was
    3:19:27 given to me my birthday by the studio that i made that movie how did i not remember that it’s like
    3:19:32 crazy what you don’t remember and it’s the brain is very it’s not a it’s not a very you know reliable
    3:19:38 computer it’s it’s made out of freaking butter that’s a really profound idea that so much of our life
    3:19:45 is lived through replaying our memories and then watching stuff is a one of the ways to sort of
    3:19:52 refresh give some more you know texture and details makes it iconic it makes it iconic in
    3:19:57 your life and part of your life otherwise it just went by it went by like i’ll ask people like we
    3:20:02 just had a really what did we do last week what did we do last wednesday i can tell you because i wrote
    3:20:07 it down but i’m gonna remember and and then when you see when you go through your journal like i go
    3:20:14 back and i find wow life-changing thing happened friday another life-changing thing i didn’t know at the
    3:20:20 time until now i know that that really set me on him happened saturday and another big freaking thing
    3:20:25 happened on sunday like they come in threes sometime you start being able to predict the future a little
    3:20:31 bit because you you see the patterns and it’s pretty wild to do that and i i’ve i’ve talked to people
    3:20:35 big group of people 500 people how many people hear journal
    3:20:41 two hands three hands i couldn’t believe it it’s like man you guys if there’s anything i’m going to
    3:20:45 part on you is journal your life is way more interesting than you think because it’s not going
    3:20:49 to feel like anything while it’s going by but in retrospect you look back like i can just go through
    3:20:57 i keep a journal one file per year so i started a new one in 2025 if i want to look up like i’m going
    3:21:02 to do a director’s chair episode i look up michael man michael man michael man all the conversations
    3:21:07 we had since 94 that i wrote down that i felt and it’s like oh my god i can’t believe we said that
    3:21:11 that’s how i knew about that thing with quentin i had forgotten about that story with quentin saying
    3:21:16 ah pulp fiction i had forgotten that because from the moment i asked him that question to the success
    3:21:22 at can was very quick so it was a lost moment in time where i had it recorded down to the time down
    3:21:26 of the hour when i asked him that question he thought it wasn’t he didn’t think that was the
    3:21:33 one for him yeah and there’s a i don’t know when it when it’s private journaling there’s an honesty
    3:21:37 there’s an innocence that about like the dreams you have about the future the conceptions you have
    3:21:42 about the future i mean that’s what this thing is journal is a journal it’s just a journalist like
    3:21:47 but the profundity like comes out of it’s crazy yeah you didn’t and so much i figured out then i was
    3:21:51 i’m talking like a professor by the end of that like i have people come up to me and they’re
    3:21:55 asking me all these questions about stuff i wrote in there and i’m like i wrote that in that book
    3:22:01 shit i was smart back then what happened i don’t remember half of that but i think that it’s the
    3:22:07 same thing when you go to teach someone your mouth opens and stuff comes out i i’m always taping myself
    3:22:13 like when i go to give a talk because that’s also the pipe working someone else is talking to you
    3:22:18 sometimes so the act of sharing that’s why i’ve always liked to share information because the feedback
    3:22:24 loop is insane like me inspiring daisy dj to go right he writes the script in three days comes
    3:22:29 back tells me now i’m doing that method and it’s like wow people come back with their version and i
    3:22:36 love telling my kids stuff that i learned that i wish i could tell myself but i can’t take a time
    3:22:40 tell your kid because then they can take that information and process so many times they’ve come
    3:22:46 back and said wow dad that lesson you taught us about this is really it’s really become big in our minds
    3:22:52 yeah what was that and they tell me i’m like i never told you that they said yeah you told us well i told you
    3:22:57 maybe 10 of that all the rest you added oh yeah well we embellished it over like they turned it into
    3:23:04 something else and it’s like wow that’s so cool but yeah that thing about reliving like that was a
    3:23:10 one of my favorite was just yeah my mom turning 75 and not wanting to do anything for her 75th birthday
    3:23:14 i said why not she goes the whole family’s gonna you have 10 kids they’re all gonna want to do something
    3:23:19 for your 75th birthday nothing can top my 65th i was like what are we doing your fifth 65th i didn’t
    3:23:24 remember even i’m the one who orchestrated it all she goes oh you flew everyone in from all over the
    3:23:32 country you gave me a car i gotta have a journal of that so i’m sure i have video i go back 10 years
    3:23:39 i see what tape i had it on find the tape pop the tape in forgot about all this stuff so i cut together
    3:23:45 a 10 minute version of it showed it at her 75th birthday just watching the old one everybody was like
    3:23:51 oh my god look how young everybody was like how small the nieces and nephews were she starts bawling
    3:23:56 as soon as she gets the key the gift of the key in the video because she realizes now what it’s going
    3:24:02 to mean that she’s going to get this car and so it’s like wow let’s just play the old tapes we don’t
    3:24:09 even have to do anything anymore we banked so much amazing stuff that we’ve all forgotten that you know my
    3:24:14 kids just love watching their old home movies they they hardly remember any of it but
    3:24:22 even a vhs to them is virtual reality because compared to our memories it is virtual reality
    3:24:26 they’re like leaning into the screen to see what’s around the corner and they’re remembering the place
    3:24:32 and the sounds and they say oh we left the we left the living room it’s like we’re there
    3:24:37 it’s like wow i was always afraid they would see this old footage and go ah that dog shit
    3:24:41 kind of camera was that this is the limitations of you know you put up one of those files on your
    3:24:46 screen it’s like this big on your laptop now that’s how low res shit was back then but that
    3:24:51 didn’t matter it’s like compared to our memories that stuff living is reliving like pull up that
    3:24:56 shoot as much as you can take as many pictures but write the journal because you’ll have a picture
    3:24:59 swear you’re not going to know what it’s from even 10 years from now you want to know what that picture
    3:25:04 is from you read the diary oh that’s what that is oh my god you can piece together all these things
    3:25:09 that are important to you or that become more important with time actually and uh you know
    3:25:14 what’s important later compared to what’s happening at the time to add on top of that so journaling is
    3:25:20 a kind of raw or like home films is a raw projection of what’s going on in the moment i think it’s also
    3:25:26 really powerful because i’ve done that is to do a high effort description of where your life is for
    3:25:31 you just for yourself so sometimes journaling is like low effort yeah sometimes it’s just i just want
    3:25:34 to mark that you know we had this conversation i had to go do something at five i did that
    3:25:38 met somebody that i know last night i met somebody that’s going to be life changing i’m going to write
    3:25:43 a little bit more on that because i could just now i know but i’m going to just record it so later if i
    3:25:48 look it up so one of the cool things you could do is you know like for example somebody uh uh jamie mr
    3:25:53 beast does does these videos which are great i think i think it’s a great exercise to do for yourself
    3:25:59 which is a video he records uh for himself that he doesn’t look at to be published 20 years from now
    3:26:04 this is a message to myself 20 years from now here’s where i hope you end up
    3:26:09 you’re basically a younger version of yourself speaking to an older version yeah and then you
    3:26:14 get you know time flies and like you get to a point where it’s like holy shit it has been 10 years has
    3:26:20 been 20 years you get to listen to a younger version of yourself like you it would have been hilarious if
    3:26:25 you shot videos like that to yourself because it was just like the incredible journey your career has
    3:26:32 been on and just to think about that like the delta the difference between what your dreams were where you
    3:26:38 ended up usually you outdo yourself in many ways sometimes your life goes in a totally different
    3:26:47 trajectory that’s um and the result is kind of funny it’s a it’s a nice it’s a nice illustration of the
    3:26:52 non-linearity of life i i would film stuff like that with my kids i couldn’t do it but i would film my
    3:26:58 kids saying hey turn to the camera now and say hey rebel it’s me rebel rebel in the future yeah
    3:27:03 so you have shots like that yeah and then they show them like cool like that 10 years later and they’re
    3:27:09 like whoa just to see it talking to them and saying yeah and uh i would do this thing where
    3:27:17 i would film them watching it and then pan off so that 10 years later i could get
    3:27:22 hey rebel him reacting pan off to the new rebel watching it it’s just like keeps going so i have
    3:27:26 one like that where it just keeps panning and they’re watching themselves within the movie within
    3:27:30 the movie within the movie it’s like an ongoing project you know it’s just so fun to just play with
    3:27:40 memory and make you realize how fast time moves and to go they go like i kind of remember that but i
    3:27:46 don’t remember being that tiny yeah i had that memory it’s like wild how time moves and it makes
    3:27:53 them feel much more precious about how quick time moves and how important every little moment is
    3:27:58 because you see the fragility of it too you know does it make you sad break your heart that you know
    3:28:04 the number of memories we get to create is finite that this life ends eventually the story is over
    3:28:10 i had this theory i’m gonna put this in a movie i don’t think i’ve ever seen this before because i
    3:28:14 was woke up from a dream and it was like trying to remember it you know you’re like god it’s so
    3:28:21 so real if you don’t write it down right away right it kind of fades away but you while you’re
    3:28:27 dreaming it it’s really real it’s like you can almost see the walls by the time i went to go tell
    3:28:31 somebody it’s like shit i forgot most of it but i wonder if that’s what it’s like when you wake up
    3:28:36 in your consciousness after you die you wake up in your next consciousness getting ready to move
    3:28:42 into whatever your next body is and you’re like wow i was a filmmaker had five kids
    3:28:50 and oh well i’m gonna be a fish now it’s like it’s like a dream it’s like that gone that way
    3:28:55 and it’s like that’s what past lives are they’re like distant memories like a dream that’s faded away
    3:29:00 that’s why you barely feel remnants of it do i feel sad about that when i tell people they flip out
    3:29:05 when i tell them that yeah like i said i want a character to be like that like he’s dying he’s
    3:29:09 like i don’t want to forget this dream i don’t want to forget don’t let me wake up don’t let me wake
    3:29:14 up but you forget especially the moment you try to tell somebody yeah until the next fish yeah the
    3:29:21 next is there’ll be a fish next but uh uh yeah yeah like it feels like i’m a little sad about it but
    3:29:25 then it just makes you even more double down to be precious about the life you’re in now
    3:29:28 what do you think is the meaning recorded recorded what do you think is the meaning of this
    3:29:37 whole thing of life why are we here i mean i really feel like uh my kids and i were just
    3:29:42 talking about this last night we were just blown away we did this asterian astrology thing was the
    3:29:50 oldest form of astrology just nails each person and it’s like yeah because when you have a kid
    3:29:55 you realize right away this isn’t my kid this is not my i’m just in charge of him it’s a completely
    3:30:00 different soul he’s a different soul that ended up in my hands it’s not there’s physical characteristics
    3:30:06 that get passed on because of just how biology works even sometimes posture and movement is the same
    3:30:11 but the actual person is somebody else and all the kids i have five kids and i had nine brothers and
    3:30:18 sisters they’re all different and you realize we made a pact in a past life to gather together
    3:30:25 because every time it’s like so good you were born in this family because you were given free reign to
    3:30:30 go find who you’re really supposed to be and you and you find out everyone is doing what they were supposed
    3:30:37 to be doing but what’s cool almost like this clarity you get by just saying it they now know that they were
    3:30:41 always supposed to be like this creative person or that and now they can double down on it because they know
    3:30:45 that’s who they were supposed to be they don’t have to have any doubt anymore they don’t have to wonder well
    3:30:50 am i supposed to be more business minded or can i be creative isn’t that some kind of frivolous is that
    3:30:55 a real job can i do that um now they realize no you’re supposed to be doing that for these these these
    3:31:00 these reasons and now they can double down you can skip all that and just decide i feel like i want to be
    3:31:06 that person so i’m just going to declare i am that person and as soon as you say it you are that
    3:31:15 and tomorrow your your activities will conform to that that’s how powerful that decision is so when
    3:31:21 you walk out of here it’s going to be with a complete commitment i’m a technical and creative
    3:31:27 person like my first boss i’m unstoppable because my boss told me that and he was right
    3:31:32 i became technical and creative and you’re just unstoppable you can just keep going and just go
    3:31:37 i’m unstoppable that’s me you’re going to use your powers for bad but you’ve just changed your
    3:31:43 life by just declaring that and i’m also a creative person who lives his life creatively i’m going to find
    3:31:49 creative ways to use that technology if somebody says you’re not the same kind of artist i was expecting
    3:31:55 that’s their own opinion don’t blink just keep going you know all these things that you’ve learned
    3:32:00 that people were supposed to tell you along the way they’re telling you for a reason anytime you got
    3:32:05 pushed like if you go back to your life at your really critical moments in your life
    3:32:10 where you went that way instead of that way there was probably somebody there who said something to
    3:32:17 you that kind of pushed you i there was a there was one guy when i was in high school it was like
    3:32:23 senior year i wrote a paper and i wasn’t a great writer at all i wrote a paper for a latin american
    3:32:30 studies class gave it to the teacher and uh he said wow you you’re going to be rich and famous in four
    3:32:39 years based on what i read because i really flight home like 17 or 18 four years later i’ve done
    3:32:44 mariachi and i went to him later at a reunion and i said you called it you said i was gonna be why did
    3:32:48 you say that and he’s like i said that i don’t say it looked like he would never say that to somebody
    3:32:53 you think he would own it and say oh yeah i knew and i told you no he was like you look like he didn’t
    3:32:58 even know who that was asking i feel like he never would have said that in a million years so again
    3:33:02 sometimes things come out of our mouth that’s not us that comes through us so if you think of it that
    3:33:09 way why are we here we’re here for a reason we’re gonna get nudged along listen to the signs own who
    3:33:13 you’re supposed to be because you’re you are that person don’t let your human doubt get in the way
    3:33:17 that’s like the guy closing the pipe i don’t know if i’m really creative i don’t know if i’m really a
    3:33:23 businessman and you’re just closing the pipe you’re not gonna let it flow just be a good pipe just say i just
    3:33:29 want to be a i just want to be a good pipe clean open and then that’s when the magic happens and no
    3:33:35 matter what don’t blink don’t blink no matter how many that dude was getting so much shit thrown at
    3:33:39 him i wish you knew that time period because then you would you would go like yeah that’s right it’s
    3:33:43 incredible it was unbelievable i can’t even convey there was no internet and stuff back then this was
    3:33:51 like literal press reviews public it was like why are they targeting this guy you know they just did not
    3:33:58 like he just had unprecedented success and was a really great guy and was making amazing shit so it was
    3:34:05 the the triple threat of make people jealous you know pissed off well he’s one of the great artists of all time
    3:34:11 so are you it’s a huge honor to talk to you thank you for everything you’re doing in the world for creating
    3:34:16 the world and for inspiring millions of people to also be creators in the world and for your new project that’s
    3:34:21 bringing people in robert i’m as i told you i’m a huge fan i appreciate that honor to talk to you
    3:34:26 brother so great talking with you great questions you’re gonna change your life thank you a million
    3:34:32 dollars yeah right there thank you for listening to this conversation with robert rodriguez to support
    3:34:37 this podcast please check out our sponsors in the description and now let me leave you with some
    3:34:47 words from alfred hitchcock in feature films the director is god in documentary films god is the director
    3:34:51 thank you for listening and hope to see you next time
    3:35:21 Thank you.

    Robert Rodriguez is a legendary filmmaker and creator of Sin City, El Mariachi, Desperado, Spy Kids, Machete, From Dusk Till Dawn, Alita: Battle Angel, The Faculty, and his newest venture Brass Knuckle Films.
    Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep465-sc
    See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.

    Transcript:
    https://lexfridman.com/robert-rodriguez-transcript

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    EPISODE LINKS:
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    OUTLINE:
    (00:00) – Introduction
    (10:04) – Explosions and having only one take
    (17:39) – Success and failure
    (26:28) – Filmmaking on a low budget
    (38:41) – El Mariachi
    (50:10) – Creativity
    (1:12:06) – Limitations
    (1:18:22) – Handling criticism
    (1:34:32) – Action films
    (1:45:53) – Quentin Tarantino
    (1:55:52) – Desperado
    (1:56:54) – Salma Hayek
    (2:01:40) – Danny Trejo
    (2:06:55) – Filming in Austin
    (2:13:05) – Editing
    (2:22:35) – Sound design
    (2:27:43) – Deadlines
    (2:31:14) – Alita: Battle Angel
    (2:39:36) – James Cameron
    (2:52:39) – Sin City
    (3:06:48) – Manifesting
    (3:18:12) – Memories and journaling
    (3:27:56) – Mortality

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