Author: The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish

  • #222 Outliers: Cornelius Vanderbilt — The First Tycoon

    AI transcript
    0:00:04 “Gentlemen, you have undertaken to cheat me.
    0:00:07 I won’t sue for the laws too slow.
    0:00:08 I’ll ruin you.”
    0:00:11 Yours truly, Cornelius Vanderbilt.
    0:00:14 And that quote is the embodiment of the man
    0:00:17 we’re gonna talk about today, Cornelius Vanderbilt.
    0:00:33 – Welcome to The Knowledge Project.
    0:00:35 I’m your host, Shane Parrish.
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    0:00:54 hand-edited transcripts, and so much more.
    0:00:56 Check out the link in the show notes for more.
    0:01:05 – He began as a teenage ferry captain,
    0:01:08 battling storms in New York Harbor for pennies.
    0:01:11 From these humble beginnings, he clawed his way
    0:01:15 to become America’s most feared and admired magnet.
    0:01:18 Cornelius Vanderbilt didn’t just dominate one industry,
    0:01:22 he conquered three: ferries, steamships, and railroads.
    0:01:27 Rivals called him ruthless, passengers called him unstoppable.
    0:01:29 But Vanderbilt didn’t just build businesses,
    0:01:32 he rewrote the rules, laying the foundation
    0:01:34 for the modern corporation.
    0:01:36 This is his story.
    0:01:38 If you think today’s tycoons are tough,
    0:01:40 wait till you meet the Commodore.
    0:01:43 Most of the research for this episode
    0:01:46 came from reading “The First Tycoon” by TJ Stiles,
    0:01:50 and “Tycoon’s War” by Stefan Dando Collins.
    0:01:51 Remember to stick around at the end of the show
    0:01:54 for my reflections and afterthoughts,
    0:01:57 as well as the lessons you can learn from Vanderbilt.
    0:02:01 If you want to read my highlights from “Tycoon’s War” or “The First Tycoon”,
    0:02:05 you can sign up below fs.blog/membership.
    0:02:09 Just look in the description for this podcast, you can find a link.
    0:02:11 It’s time to listen and learn.
    0:02:15 This podcast is for entertainment and informational purposes only.
    0:02:23 It’s January 4th, 1877.
    0:02:25 A winter wind cuts through New York City,
    0:02:28 where a crowd gathers outside the Church of Strangers.
    0:02:33 Inside, elites await the reading of Cornelius Vanderbilt’s will,
    0:02:37 rumored to be worth $100 million.
    0:02:40 One twentieth of all U.S. currency.
    0:02:44 His legendary willpower and ruthless business tactics
    0:02:47 had forced rivals to pay him to go away.
    0:02:51 Now, the entire city wants to see how the man who once dominated ferries,
    0:02:55 steamboats, and railroads chose to dispense his vast fortune.
    0:03:00 His early life was filled with fistfights, high-speed steamboat duels,
    0:03:04 engine explosions, and numerous near-death experiences.
    0:03:09 His latter days with daredevil harness races and high-stakes financial confrontations
    0:03:11 that even extended to the international scene.
    0:03:17 By the time of his death, virtually every American had paid tribute to his treasury.
    0:03:21 They had passed through his Grand Central Depot on 42nd Street,
    0:03:25 crossed the bridges over the sunken tracks along 4th Avenue,
    0:03:29 or traveled one of the countless ferries, steamboats, or railroads
    0:03:31 he had controlled during his 60-year career.
    0:03:35 Vanderbilt was the precursor to a class of men
    0:03:38 who would wield power within the state so great
    0:03:40 that it would rival the state itself.
    0:03:45 Rockefeller, Carnegie, Mellon, Gould, Morgan,
    0:03:49 all were just beginning their careers when Vanderbilt stood at his zenith.
    0:03:52 They studied him and they followed his example,
    0:03:55 though few would match his impact.
    0:03:58 His admirers called him the finest example of the common man
    0:04:00 rising through hard work and ability.
    0:04:02 His critics, on the other hand, called him ruthless,
    0:04:07 an unelected king who never pretended to rule for his people.
    0:04:11 But Vanderbilt’s significance was more complex, more contradictory,
    0:04:14 than either of his admirers or critics fully grasped.
    0:04:20 His life spanned from the days of George Washington to those of John D. Rockefeller,
    0:04:26 from a rural, agricultural, essentially colonial society in which the term businessman was unknown
    0:04:31 to a corporate, industrial economy that would define America’s future.
    0:04:39 Vanderbilt didn’t just experience that changing time period and watch as the American economy rose around him.
    0:04:43 He was possibly the largest force at the time responsible for the building of it.
    0:04:49 He was the trailblazer in the corporate world and reimagined what a corporation could do.
    0:04:54 Now, to truly understand the Commodore and that world, we must go back to the beginning,
    0:05:04 to Stanton Island, May 27th, 1794, when Phoebe Vanderbilt gave birth to her fourth child naming him Cornelius after his father,
    0:05:07 Although they called the boy Cornelius.
    0:05:20 The Vanderbilt’s descended from Jean Arsene Vanderbilt, who had come to the New World to farm generations earlier.
    0:05:25 On Stanton Island, most of the original Dutch settlers led an inward-looking rural life.
    0:05:30 Americans of British descent often viewed them with distaste.
    0:05:39 As one traveler observed in the 1790s, nothing can exceed the state of indolence and ignorance in which these Dutchmen are described to live.
    0:05:44 Many of them are supposed to live and die without having been five miles from their own houses.
    0:05:51 But there was one distinctive feature of the rural Dutch that would profoundly shape young Cornelius Vanderbilt:
    0:05:53 they farmed for profit.
    0:05:58 While many English-speaking farmers in the region devoted much of their efforts to subsidence,
    0:06:04 Dutch farming was market-oriented and derived its distinct characteristics from Dutch tradition.
    0:06:09 The rural Dutch shared the commercial consciousness of their urban brethren.
    0:06:14 They clattered their wagons into Albany, New Brunswick, and New York to sell their produce
    0:06:16 with a savvy that became their custom.
    0:06:21 When a cobbler refused to return a man’s shoes until he made full payment,
    0:06:25 the frustrated customer wrote in his diary, “He is too Dutch by half.”
    0:06:29 Young Cornelius was born into this tradition of commerce.
    0:06:34 His parents created a household where, far earlier than in remote communities,
    0:06:37 the marketplace strode right through the door every day.
    0:06:43 While farmers living up the Hudson may make just one delivery of crops to riverside merchants,
    0:06:49 in an entire year at harvest time, the Vanderbilt house pulsed constantly with buying and selling,
    0:06:52 borrowing and lending, earnings and debt.
    0:07:00 Cornelius’ father had built or bought a prerogar, a specialized two-masted vessel deployed by the
    0:07:06 dutch for trading and began ferrying neighbors and their produce along the bay in Manhattan.
    0:07:10 Phoebe, Cornelius’ mother, was equally entrepreneurial.
    0:07:16 She was not only the family oracle one 19th century writer declared, she was the oracle of the neighborhood
    0:07:20 whose advice was sought in all sorts of dilemmas and whose judgment had weight.
    0:07:27 Court records show she lent money at commercial rates of interest and once even foreclosed on a
    0:07:34 widow’s mortgage. The widow being her own daughter. Unlike most farmers, they actually lived within
    0:07:40 sight of New York City, where from their Stanton Island home, they could literally see the mass of
    0:07:43 ships in the harbor bringing goods and ideas from around the world.
    0:07:50 The United States that Cornelius was born into was a very young nation.
    0:07:56 Keep in mind that when Vanderbilt was born, George Washington was still early in his second term of the
    0:08:03 presidency. Only five cities held more than 10,000 residents at this time and the percentage of the
    0:08:09 the nation’s four million citizens who lived in towns of at least 2,500 people languished in the
    0:08:15 single digits and would linger there for decades to come. Most Americans live scattered along the
    0:08:19 Atlantic coast with only the bravest pioneers venturing west to the Appalachians.
    0:08:26 By his early teens, Vanderbilt was totally drawn to the water, leaving the fields behind.
    0:08:33 Accounts on this vary, but by the age of 16, he was running his own ferry that was either owned by
    0:08:38 his parents or one that he purchased with a loan from them, promising to help pay the family’s $1,000
    0:08:45 mortgage. His plan to do so? Operate the boat as a ferry between Stanton Island and the growing
    0:08:52 Manhattan. The teenager launched himself into this venture with intensity, charging a shilling each
    0:08:58 way, 12 and a half cents that accumulated with glacial slowness in a vessel that seated just 20
    0:09:04 passengers. Vanderbilt discovered in those daily handfuls of silver, a hunger for money that would
    0:09:11 shape his life from then on. What distinguished his small ferry service from the competition was
    0:09:17 predictability. While other boatmen waited until their crafts filled to their capacity, the teenage
    0:09:24 entrepreneur introduced something uncommon to the New York Harbor, a schedule. His ferry departed at fixed
    0:09:29 times regardless of the passenger count, a self-imposed discipline that transformed water
    0:09:36 transit from casual to reliable service, earning him loyalty and repeat business. This was an extension
    0:09:41 of how he lived his life, with one contemporary at the time saying his life was regulated by self-imposed
    0:09:50 rules, with a fixedness of purpose as invariable as the sun in its circuit. That reliability for service
    0:09:56 extended to the winter months as well. When ice choked the harbor, he was often the only ferryman willing to
    0:10:02 make the crossing. He studied the tides, winds and currents relentlessly and mastered the natural forces
    0:10:10 that other boatmen merely accommodated. In simple terms, he worked harder. During the blinding storms,
    0:10:15 when sleet and snow crashed across the bay, Pearl Street merchants would seek out the gangly team,
    0:10:21 trusting him alone to deliver urgent messages to vessels anchored in the harbor, earning Vanderbilt
    0:10:28 additional income. Not only was he reliable, in these months he was often the only option for
    0:10:32 passengers. And although there was no recorded earnings from this time, presumably he could charge
    0:10:39 a premium for his services. In fair weather, it was a different story and he competed aggressively on
    0:10:44 price, undercutting established operators as a rule. If other ferrymen charged 18 cents,
    0:10:50 Vanderbilt would charge 12. If they dropped to 10, he’d go to 8. This approach, price competition to
    0:10:55 the point of driving out rivals, would become his signature strategy throughout his career, regardless
    0:11:02 of scale or industry. It’s worth pausing here for a second to talk about this. Isidore Sharp,
    0:11:08 the founder of the Four Seasons, said something that has long struck with me. He said, “Excellence is the
    0:11:15 capacity to take pain.” One of the things that sets Vanderbilt and other outliers apart is their
    0:11:22 willingness to tolerate pain. Most people have no capacity to endure pain, financial or psychological.
    0:11:28 And if you can, you can gain a real advantage. It hurt Vanderbilt to cut prices, but it hurt his
    0:11:33 competitors more and he knew it. It hurt Vanderbilt to run his service when he couldn’t see or the
    0:11:40 weather was bad, but he knew it hurt his competitors so much they wouldn’t even operate. It’s hard
    0:11:45 to compete with someone who can tolerate more pain than you. There’s over 500,000 small businesses in
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    0:12:22 that teenage Vanderbilt had not only paid off his loan, but had given his parents several hundred
    0:12:28 dollars towards their mortgage. And it is here where we see Vanderbilt evolve from just a hard worker
    0:12:34 into something much more. If his parents had taught him anything, it was that business thrived on
    0:12:39 relationships. Though his hands grew calloused from twisting wooden tillers, the harbour brought him not
    0:12:45 just physical strain, but valuable connections. As he accumulated his modest portion of the ferry’s
    0:12:53 earnings through 1810, 1811, and 1812, Vanderbilt made a pivotal decision: to purchase shares in other
    0:13:01 boats. Shares whose profits he deliberately kept separate from his family obligations. Vanderbilt transformed
    0:13:07 himself from a mere labourer, somebody who worked harder than anyone else, into an investor, or to
    0:13:12 put it plainly, a capitalist. His money was now making money for him, expanding his reach beyond
    0:13:19 what only his two hands could accomplish in a day’s work. As war with Britain loomed and then erupted in
    0:13:25 1812, these investments positioned him perfectly to capitalize on the shifting trade patterns. With a
    0:13:31 British blockade due to the war forcing coastal shipping to rout through Stanton Island and overland
    0:13:36 across New Jersey, Vanderbilt’s position between Manhattan and Stanton Island suddenly became
    0:13:43 a commercial choke point and one where he could take advantage. By 1813, with war raging and his
    0:13:50 reputation growing, Vanderbilt took two decisive steps towards independence. First, he commissioned his very
    0:13:56 own custom-built ferry in New Jersey, funded by his carefully hoarded and growing savings. On Sundays,
    0:14:02 he would sail up the Pasek River to inspect the boat’s progress accompanied by his cousin Sophia Johnson,
    0:14:08 the woman who would become both his bride and his business partner in his life’s enterprise. The boat
    0:14:13 represented his commercial ambitions, while the marriage his declaration of financial independence
    0:14:30 and moved into a small house near the ferry dock. This wasn’t merely a personal milestone but a commercial
    0:14:37 one, the final step in his evolution from wage-earning boatmen to an entrepreneurial force. By his early 20s,
    0:14:43 he had expanded from a single ferry to multiple, including larger schooners used for coastal shipping.
    0:14:48 The locals no longer called him Cornille. He was now widely known as Captain Vanderbilt.
    0:14:57 The War of 1812 accelerated Vanderbilt’s rise. With military necessity came opportunity. In 1814,
    0:15:03 as the United States stood on the brink of defeat with Washington captured and New York bracing for an attack,
    0:15:08 one account says that Vanderbilt secured a lucrative military contract to carry supplies to the city’s
    0:15:14 defensive fortifications. When asked why he won the bid, despite not offering the lowest price,
    0:15:19 the military officer’s response crystallized Vanderbilt’s growing reputation. “Don’t you
    0:15:25 know why we have given the contract to you? It’s because we want this business done and we know you’ll do it.”
    0:15:31 Following the war’s end in 1815, Vanderbilt made a strategic decision that revealed his commercial
    0:15:37 instincts. He moved his young wife from Stanton Island to 93 Broad Street in Manhattan, settling
    0:15:44 into an artisan’s boarding house. The relocation placed him deliberately at the center of commerce
    0:15:49 and information where newspapers published shipping schedules and commodity prices, where auctions
    0:15:56 and exchanges operated daily and were reputations, the true currency of business in that era, were established
    0:16:03 or broken. At his new home in Manhattan, Vanderbilt studied the city’s other merchants carefully. He noted that
    0:16:08 despite the energy and innovations of artisans and small businessmen, New York’s wealthiest citizens were
    0:16:16 primarily general merchants who traded in international cargoes of all types. When the government needed to sell war bonds,
    0:16:22 it turned to merchant financers like John Astor. Vanderbilt internalized this lesson realizing that
    0:16:29 the wealth he desired would require him to trade in cargoes and not just provide its transportation. He
    0:16:35 would have to expand. With the war over, New York erupted in commercial activity and Vanderbilt jumped in
    0:16:42 with both feet. His approach showed both boldness and shrewdness. Rather than remaining in the familiar
    0:16:48 harbor waters, the now 20-year-old entrepreneur reached out to distant ports along the Atlantic coast.
    0:16:53 More importantly, he began seeking partners with greater expertise and capital than he had.
    0:16:59 He joined forces with his brother-in-law, John DeForest, an experienced mariner who commanded the schooner
    0:17:04 Charlotte. Vanderbilt purchased a share in this vessel using it to transport goods between New York
    0:17:10 and the Southern ports before eventually buying full ownership. Vanderbilt also partnered with
    0:17:16 his father and others to finance even larger ferries suitable for open water. These vessels cost approximately
    0:17:24 $750 each. With a small but growing fleet, Vanderbilt aggressively began seeking out market opportunities.
    0:17:29 He raced competitors to Virginia’s oyster grounds, sailed up the Delaware River to purchase shad,
    0:17:36 and ventured up to New Jersey’s Raritan River, hiring horsemen to spread word of his available fish.
    0:17:42 His commercial operations extended to paying boatmen to meet incoming ships while he negotiated cargo sales
    0:17:47 on South Street. His business practices here displayed the same forceful determination that
    0:17:54 characterized his ferry operations. Court records from 1816 and 17 showed that Vanderbilt pursued debts through
    0:18:00 legal channels, though judges frequently determined he had overstated what was owed. This commercial
    0:18:07 aggressiveness served him in America’s rapidly changing economy. The post-war era brought dramatic
    0:18:13 transformations to American commerce. Manufacturing, which had developed during wartime isolation, continued
    0:18:19 expanding. Banking proliferated, especially in New York, and the number of American banks increased from
    0:18:29 208 to 246 in 1815 alone, while currency in circulation jumped from 46 to 68 million. Vanderbilt’s rise
    0:18:35 paralleled these developments completely as he sought opportunities in the growing domestic markets.
    0:18:41 Transportation barriers remained a critical limitation in commerce in early America. In the
    0:18:46 era before railroads, moving goods 30 miles on land could cost as much as shipping them across the
    0:18:52 entire Atlantic Ocean. Even coast-wise shipping in small schooners had limited capacity. Meanwhile,
    0:18:58 up-river journeys against currents could take days or prove impossible, and cargoes would often be lost or
    0:19:04 damaged. The speed of transportation also limited the speed of information and thereby constrained long-distance
    0:19:11 commerce and financial markets. America needed a transportation revolution, and it was coming.
    0:19:17 In 1817, New York State began constructing the Erie Canal, which would connect the Great Lakes to the
    0:19:23 Atlantic Ocean, while steamboats at the same time appeared on the Hudson River, offering transportation
    0:19:31 independent of wind, muscle, or current. By December 1817, the 23-year-old Vanderbilt had substantial assets
    0:19:36 now under his command. He was following the path of other successful merchants he had observed. He was a
    0:19:42 maritime merchant rising through the ranks of America’s most vibrant port city, and specializing in cargo
    0:19:47 trading. And he might well have made a fine living as just another successful merchant in
    0:19:57 Manhattan if it were not for a chance encounter on November 24th, 1817.
    0:20:05 On that November day, Vanderbilt turned at the sound of his name and saw a well-dressed 60-year-old
    0:20:12 man looking at him with sharp, hard eyes. The man introduced himself as Thomas Gibbons, a staggeringly
    0:20:18 rich rice planter from the state of Georgia, now residing in Elizabethtown, New Jersey. Empathetic and
    0:20:23 direct, Gibbons explained that the captain of his steamboat had suddenly left my employ, creating what he
    0:20:29 called my present embarrassment. He needed someone to take charge of the boat on this day, and I expect
    0:20:35 for a few days to come. Would Vanderbilt do it? The vessel in question was named Stowdinger, nicknamed
    0:20:41 the Mouse of the Mountain, or simply Mouse, as it was second-hand and a small craft, smaller at 47 feet
    0:20:47 than even Vanderbilt’s own small boats. But there was one crucial difference between the mouse and Vanderbilt’s
    0:20:55 own boats. It ran on steam. Vanderbilt understood that the steam engine was the most dramatic
    0:21:01 technological breakthrough since the printing press. To move on water at will against the wind or current
    0:21:07 was to transform a fundamental fact of life at this time. A practical education in the steamboat
    0:21:13 business would be worth more than a few days of taking orders from someone else. The engagement with
    0:21:17 Gibbons seemed to set him back a step in his own plans, which surprised his friends and acquaintances.
    0:21:24 Vanderbilt aspired to be more and more, and he was using his own boats to embark on the only obvious
    0:21:30 voyage to wealth that he could see, setting up as a general merchant. As he stepped aboard the mouse
    0:21:35 and inspected its copper boiler, he kept his own boats plying between Stanton Island and Manhattan with
    0:21:41 passengers and produce while his schooners nosed along coastal waters with cargoes of fish and woolens,
    0:21:47 but it’s clear that he saw the advantages of this new connection. What he did not reckon on was how
    0:21:52 well he would get on with Gibbons. “I always thought Thomas Gibbons a very strong-minded man,
    0:21:58 the strongest I ever knew,” Vanderbilt said later. “I don’t believe any human could control him. He was
    0:22:03 the man that could not be led. He could just as easily have been describing himself when he said that.”
    0:22:08 There’s another reason that Vanderbilt may have chosen to run a steamboat for a few days,
    0:22:13 and that was because of the excitement. Running a steamboat at the time would make him the focus of a
    0:22:21 very interesting legal and business war that was the talk of the waterfront. In 1798, Chancellor Robert
    0:22:27 Livingston, who was a powerful New York aristocrat, convinced his friends in the legislature to give him
    0:22:34 a monopoly on steamboat ships in the New York state waters. In 1807, after partnering with inventor Robert
    0:22:40 Fulton, they launched the first commercially successful steamboat service on the Hudson River. Not only did they
    0:22:45 have a monopoly, the New York legislature went so far as to give them the right to seize steamboats that
    0:22:52 entered the New York waters from other states. Enter Thomas Gibbons, the man who would hire Vanderbilt.
    0:22:59 Cunning and commanding, Gibbons’ daughter dryly noted he had a peculiar and singular mode of doing business.
    0:23:08 Gibbons was, in a word, intense. Perhaps an example will help illustrate this point. Once he became embroiled in a
    0:23:14 dispute with his neighbor, a man named Aaron Ogden, what began as a fight over a leased peer escalated
    0:23:20 when Ogden involved himself in Gibbons’ ongoing family disputes. Their conflict reached a breaking
    0:23:28 point when Ogden had Gibbons arrested for an unpaid debt. For Gibbons, this had become an affair of honor,
    0:23:35 and on July 25th, 1816, he stormed over to Ogden’s house, horsewhip in hand. He pounded on the door as
    0:23:41 Ogden ran out the back and scrambled over a fence. Gibbons tacked up a challenge that read, “Sir, I
    0:23:46 understand that you have interfered in a dispute between Miss Gibbons and myself. My friend General
    0:23:52 Dayton will arrange with you the time and place of our meeting.” He later testified in court that if he had
    0:23:56 found him at home he meant to have whipped him, within an inch of his life, in his own house,
    0:24:02 for he knew he was a coward. Ogden, who had no intention of exchanging shots at Don,
    0:24:08 had Gibbons arrested for trespass and for dueling. Gibbons decided to get revenge another way. He would
    0:24:15 drive Ogden out of the steamboat business. There was just one problem. Ogden had become an ally of the
    0:24:21 Livingston Fulton monopoly, receiving a license to operate his steamboat services between New Jersey
    0:24:28 and New York. Taking on Ogden meant taking on the most powerful monopoly in New York State. When Gibbons
    0:24:33 launched his steamboat service in defiance of that monopoly, he needed a ship captain who wouldn’t back
    0:24:40 down under pressure. He needed someone with technical skill, physical courage, and a defiant nature. And he
    0:24:45 found that man in Cornelius Vanderbilt. The Vanderbilt who stepped aboard the mouse
    0:24:50 that November day was walking into a fight bigger than himself, which is saying something because he
    0:24:57 was a very big man. The Livingston Fulton monopoly represented the old economic order. It was a system
    0:25:04 where political power and economic privilege were inextricably linked. What began as a temporary job
    0:25:09 for a few days quickly became a permanent position as Gibbons recognized Vanderbilt’s exceptional
    0:25:14 abilities. Vanderbilt quickly mastered the technical aspects of steam, but more importantly,
    0:25:20 he shared Gibbons’ combative nature and willingness to challenge authority. Indeed,
    0:25:25 the authority that he was challenging was the remnants of what might have been the last aristocratic
    0:25:31 generation in America, one that felt it in their inherited privilege to give themselves state-granted
    0:25:37 monopolies as they saw fit. The monopoly holders did not take this challenge from Gibbons and his
    0:25:43 steamboat captain lightly. They used every legal maneuver at their disposal to shut down the
    0:25:48 operation. They had Vanderbilt arrested repeatedly, they tried to seize the mouse, and they even attempted
    0:25:54 to bribe him to abandon Gibbons. But Vanderbilt remained loyal to Gibbons, partly because of their
    0:25:59 shared temperament, but also because he recognized the larger principle that was at stake. The monopoly
    0:26:05 wasn’t just unfair to competitors and customers, it was slowing the very adoption of steam technology
    0:26:11 that could revolutionize transportation for everyone. Vanderbilt had grown up in a market-oriented
    0:26:17 world and represented the new individualistic American citizen, one that was not guided by honor and
    0:26:24 respecting others’ rights to a legal monopoly. When Ogden’s men physically blocked Vanderbilt from docking in
    0:26:29 New York, he responded in kind, and as Gibbons’ case against the monopoly wound its way through the
    0:26:35 courts, Vanderbilt took charge of the fight on the water. He developed a reputation for daring and
    0:26:40 ingenuity. When monopoly agents came to arrest him, he would sometimes hide in the ship’s engine room, other
    0:26:46 times he would simply outrun them, pushing the steamboat’s engines to their limits and relishing the fight.
    0:26:52 The legal battle culminated in a landmark Supreme Court case called Gibbons versus Ogden.
    0:26:57 And remember, this just started as a neighborly dispute, and now we’re in the Supreme Court.
    0:27:03 In 1824, Chief Justice John Marshall ruled in Gibbons’ favor, striking down the New York steamboat
    0:27:09 monopoly. The decision established that the federal Congress alone had the power to regulate interstate
    0:27:14 commerce. This ruling affirmed that the federal government has the authority to regulate interstate
    0:27:20 commerce and put a limit on state authority. The steamboat monopoly was dead. Vanderbilt and Gibbons
    0:27:26 had won. The victory, however, came with a tragic footnote. Gibbons, Vanderbilt’s cantankerous mentor,
    0:27:31 died shortly after the ruling, leaving Vanderbilt at a crossroads. Would he remain to manage
    0:27:35 Gibbons’ steamboat line for his heirs, or would he strike out on his own?
    0:27:42 After working for Gibbons’ son and heir William for a few years, Vanderbilt decided his apprenticeship was
    0:27:48 over in 1829. He had mastered steam navigation, knew the business inside and out, and earned a
    0:27:53 reputation as one of the country’s top steamboat operators. But it was time to become his own
    0:27:59 master again. Launching his first independent steamboat venture on the busy New York-Philadelphia route,
    0:28:04 he went head-to-head with his former employers. He named his vessel, fittingly, the Independents.
    0:28:10 Vanderbilt’s business model was straightforward, echoing his teenage fairy days: better service,
    0:28:15 lower prices. He cut fares dramatically from three dollars to just one dollar, forcing rivals to
    0:28:21 match or lose customers. By upgrading food and accommodations and running on razor-thin margins
    0:28:27 others couldn’t sustain, Vanderbilt gained an upper hand. He practically lived aboard his boats,
    0:28:34 rarely seeing his wife and family fully committed to his ambitious vision. Critics accused him of ruinous
    0:28:40 competition and cutthroat capitalism. The New York Times later described Vanderbilt accusing him of
    0:28:46 pursuing competition for competition’s sake. During this era, many companies still operated under the
    0:28:53 unspoken code of respecting each other’s territory. But Vanderbilt ignored this tradition entirely. Passengers
    0:28:59 eagerly flocked to his boats, attracted by his unbeatable fares and dependable service. Competitors,
    0:29:04 however, struggled to grasp his simple but revolutionary insight: increased volume could
    0:29:10 more than offset slim or even negative profit margins. By drastically reducing prices, Vanderbilt
    0:29:16 significantly boosted demand, a phenomenon economists now recognize as Jevons paradox, where improved
    0:29:22 efficiency and reduced costs lead to greater overall consumption. And we’re going to get into this a
    0:29:27 little later, but here’s a little foreshadowing for you. He would often get paid not to compete. So when
    0:29:32 I say he’s operating at negative profit margins, it sounds like, well, that doesn’t work. But in effect,
    0:29:38 what would happen is he does get paid not to compete. So it does work. Travel time between New York and
    0:29:44 Philadelphia shrank dramatically to just 10 hours, driven by Vanderbilt’s obsession with speed. This
    0:29:51 didn’t merely make the trip affordable, it made it exciting. What began as basic transportation soon
    0:29:57 transformed into theatrical spectacle. The waters of Raritan Bay became an arena. It’s steamboats,
    0:30:03 the gladiators, and the passengers saw themselves not just as travelers, but as active participants in a
    0:30:09 thrilling competition that embodied the spirit of the age. They didn’t merely seek passage,
    0:30:15 they craved victory and Vanderbilt was determined to deliver. Vanderbilt’s ship, the thistle, sliced
    0:30:20 through the waters aggressively, mirroring its captain’s relentless spirit. To Vanderbilt this
    0:30:27 battle wasn’t solely about profit or winning, it was about domination. This competitive drive defined
    0:30:32 Vanderbilt’s character. Historical author Stephen Dando Collins notes that Vanderbilt was driven by two
    0:30:39 things, making money and winning. He had an instatiable thirst for conquest, often temporarily
    0:30:45 sacrificing profit to achieve victory. Once he triumphed though, Vanderbilt rarely lingered. Instead,
    0:30:51 he swiftly sought out his next challenge. A more modern parallel to Vanderbilt’s relentless competitiveness
    0:30:57 can be seen in athletes like Michael Jordan, who famously manufactured slights to fuel his competitive
    0:31:02 edge. For many, including Vanderbilt, the impossible challenge wasn’t a bug,
    0:31:07 it was the feature. Victory itself was less fulfilling than the next mountain to climb,
    0:31:13 the next unwinnable fight. The Evening Post observed how the sport arising from boat racing
    0:31:18 had captured public imagination. The New York-Philadelphia route attracted passionate fans who
    0:31:24 cheered their champions. English actress Anne Royal described her boats as “our heroine” recounting
    0:31:29 dramatically how the rival vessel drew up alongside somewhat boldly and sometimes had the presumption
    0:31:35 to run ahead. Her account read less like a travel diary and more like a sports reporter’s play by
    0:31:42 play. The races compressed time and space, combining speed, affordability, and spectacle to create new
    0:31:49 markets. Vanderbilt applied what economists later termed price elasticity of demand, demonstrating that
    0:31:56 transportation wasn’t a fixed need but one stimulated by accessibility and excitement. As fares dropped,
    0:32:01 more people traveled reshaping commerce by enabling merchants to access distant markets rapidly and
    0:32:08 allowing stock market speculators to profit from faster information flow. Leisure travel expanded, forcing
    0:32:15 aristocrats to mingle with those who were considered social inferiors at the time. Vanderbilt’s competitive
    0:32:21 success earned him the nickname Commodore, a title usually reserved for naval commanders. The irony wasn’t lost on
    0:32:27 Vanderbilt who had begun his career challenging monopolies. Now he commanded a fleet himself.
    0:32:33 Despite his ruthlessness in business, he lived pretty frugally with tremendous self-control and personal
    0:32:40 expenditure, but none when pursuing competition and business expansion. The confrontation began
    0:32:47 dramatically when three angry representatives from the Hudson River Steamboat Association stormed Vanderbilt’s office.
    0:32:53 They accused him of secretly owning the Westchester, a steamboat running the Albany line at a scandalously
    0:33:00 low fare of $2, undercutting the established $3 price. This powerful association was an alliance between
    0:33:05 the Hudson River, North River, and Troy steamboat companies, and it had previously paid rival Robert
    0:33:14 Stevens $80,000 to withdraw from competition for 10 years to secure their monopoly. Vanderbilt recognized this
    0:33:19 this was a dangerous moment. He truthfully insisted that he no longer had ties to the Westchester,
    0:33:25 and it even declined profitable offers to avoid involvement in any rivalry, but the monopoly leaders
    0:33:33 didn’t believe him. War was inevitable. The ensuing Hudson River rate war exposed a striking contradiction
    0:33:39 with Vanderbilt. When the monopoly retaliated by targeting one of his own profitable roots, Vanderbilt exploded with
    0:33:47 fury. In a dramatic public declaration in the New York Evening Post. He positioned his people’s line as a
    0:33:53 champion against the great triangular monopoly, appealing directly to public support. What Vanderbilt
    0:34:01 conveniently omitted was his own history of enforcing monopolies without hesitation. Yet as the underdog,
    0:34:06 Vanderbilt captivated public imagination. He deployed his ships with the Nimrod and the champion,
    0:34:14 slashing fares at first to $1 and then an astonishingly low $0.50. With relentless intensity,
    0:34:21 he expanded service-launching, aggressive advertising campaigns proclaiming “no monopoly” and winning public
    0:34:27 acclaim at every dock. However, when spring thawed the Hudson River after winter, passengers found fares
    0:34:34 back at $3 and Vanderbilt’s ships gone. Years later, a New York Herald investigation revealed he had been
    0:34:44 paid off by the original monopoly, $100,000 plus an annual $5,000 fee to withdraw. Vanderbilt’s brutal but
    0:34:51 effective strategy became clear: identify lucrative routes, wage devastating fair wars, use anti-monopolistic
    0:34:58 rhetoric to rally public support and a bit of showmanship and demand large payoffs to end the
    0:35:04 competition. This is something he would repeat over and over again. His focus shifted from steamboats to
    0:35:10 the promising railroad, a safer and faster connection between New York and Boston, bypassing the notoriously
    0:35:17 rough seas at Point Judith. Vanderbilt recognized the railroad’s potential immediately, later remarking
    0:35:22 to its chief engineer, “There’s nothing like it. The first time I ever traveled on this Stonington, I made up my mind.”
    0:35:36 In 1837, Cornelius Vanderbilt saw an opportunity marking his first significant step into railroads
    0:35:43 with the financially troubled Stonington Railroad. Saddled with $2.6 million in debt, Vanderbilt realized
    0:35:49 controlling travel along Long Island Sound required balancing both rail and steamboat operations.
    0:35:55 At home, Vanderbilt’s relationship with his 16-year-old son William was strained by his demanding nature.
    0:36:01 Frustrated by Billy’s passive demeanor, Vanderbilt placed him under Wall Street broker Daniel Drew,
    0:36:08 forging an uneasy partnership. Drew accepted Billy as a clerk, but demanded a favor in return:
    0:36:13 access to one of Vanderbilt’s new steamboats for his Hudson River operations. While they had once been
    0:36:21 rivals, they had, at least for the time, transformed it into an uneasy partnership, each respecting the
    0:36:25 other’s ruthlessness while never fully trusting one another. Vanderbilt faced
    0:36:32 renewed competition on his Boston-to-Main steamboat route, responding with fierce public anti-monopoly
    0:36:38 rhetoric. By now, his reputation alone often intimidated rivals into paying him off, instead
    0:36:44 of competing. The transportation company, for instance, purchased Vanderbilt’s Lexington steamer
    0:36:53 for $60,000 plus a $10,000 bonus, well above its real value, just to remove it from competition. Vanderbilt
    0:37:00 skillfully recouped his investment while shifting his focus to railroads. Unlike steamboats, the Commodore
    0:37:07 couldn’t easily compete with railways, so he needed a new strategy. In 1840, when the struggling Stonington
    0:37:13 Railroad sought Vanderbilt’s help, he cryptically remarked, “If I owned the road, I’d know how to make
    0:37:19 it profitable.” Though initially dismissed, Vanderbilt quietly joined the Long Island Railroad Board,
    0:37:25 redirecting business away from the Stonington. Shareholders panicked at the high debt and reduced
    0:37:32 traffic. Its stock plummeted, allowing Vanderbilt and his allies, including Drew, to secretly acquire a
    0:37:39 controlling share. By 1847, Vanderbilt became president of the Stonington, the first stop toward railroad
    0:37:47 dominance. By 1848, Vanderbilt had firmly established his transportation empire, becoming the monopoly he
    0:37:53 once opposed. Though his methods contradicted his anti-monopoly rhetoric, Vanderbilt democratized
    0:37:57 transportation, forever transforming the industry. And he was only just beginning.
    0:38:06 In early 1848, far from Vanderbilt’s bustling New York, two men carried gold nuggets into an adobe
    0:38:13 building in California, triggering one of history’s greatest economic frenzies: the California gold rush.
    0:38:20 Vanderbilt’s eye was always drawn to major transportation routes. Now, watching tens of
    0:38:26 thousands head to San Francisco each month, he saw a bigger opportunity than anything he’d tackled before.
    0:38:33 This is why the Commodore went to see Secretary of State John M. Clayton with Joseph L. White,
    0:38:38 a former politician who knew his way around Washington. Vanderbilt explained the situation
    0:38:43 clearly. Without a transcontinental railroad, only a fraction of the Americans and European
    0:38:48 immigrants rushing west could travel by covered wagon. The overland route was dangerous, passing
    0:38:53 through hostile Native American territories and treacherous mountain ranges, often taking up to six
    0:39:00 months. Hundreds died annually from accidents, exposure, starvation, or attacks. The alternative,
    0:39:06 sailing around Cape Horn at the tip of South America was faster. Roughly 90 days, but expensive at around
    0:39:14 $600 per passenger in the lowest class. “I can improve on that,” Vanderbilt told Clayton. “I can
    0:39:20 make money at $300 by crossing through Nicaragua.” But Vanderbilt wasn’t primarily after passengers,
    0:39:27 he wanted the lucrative U.S. mail contracts. Vanderbilt proposed to Clayton exclusive rights from the
    0:39:32 Nicaraguan government to build a canal. In the meantime, he planned to operate steamships from New
    0:39:38 York to Nicaragua and onward to San Francisco. Passengers would travel up the San Juan River,
    0:39:43 cross Lake Nicaragua by steamship, and then journey the remaining 12 miles by mule.
    0:39:50 Clayton favored Vanderbilt’s proposal as an American-built canal would exclude British
    0:39:56 interests and expand American influence. White successfully secured an initial contract from
    0:40:01 Nicaragua, but the company soon faced controversy when Britain protested, asserting control over
    0:40:08 strategic points in Nicaragua. Despite a British blockade and international crisis, Vanderbilt pressed
    0:40:15 forward, commissioning new ships, including the Prometheus, at 1,200 tons, the largest and fastest
    0:40:22 of its kind at the time. In 1850, Vanderbilt traveled to London to secure critical British financing,
    0:40:28 only to find the financial elite skeptical about the ambitious canal project. Matters worsened when a
    0:40:33 scathing press report accused Vanderbilt’s enterprise of being an experiment in which a few
    0:40:38 lawyers in Wall Street were the principal movers, their original purpose being to obtain a charter
    0:40:45 and afterwards dispose of it at any good price. It was a low point in Vanderbilt’s career. Seen as
    0:40:52 a fraud, he became determined to prove his critics wrong. In late 1850, undaunted by setbacks in London,
    0:40:57 Vanderbilt shifted his focus from a challenging canal project toward a practical transportation route
    0:41:04 across Nicaragua. Unlike the canal enterprise, which depended on numerous investors for the large capital
    0:41:11 project, his new steamship line was his personal venture. The Prometheus became the first ocean-going
    0:41:17 steamship entirely owned by one man. Vanderbilt’s assistant recalled, “When she started out there was
    0:41:22 not a cent owing on her,” he remarking that he wanted her to go out on her own bottom.
    0:41:31 In December 1850, Vanderbilt, now 57, boarded the Prometheus for his first of three crucial voyages
    0:41:37 to Nicaragua. His journey was so secretive due to fears of alerting rivals that even his wife didn’t
    0:41:44 know his whereabouts. Upon arrival, Vanderbilt found troubling news. His captain in Nicaragua, Colonel David
    0:41:51 White, reported the steamer Orris wrecked on the rapids of the San Juan River, deeming the rapids impassable.
    0:41:57 White’s repeated attempts with another steamer the director failed. Vanderbilt refused to accept defeat,
    0:42:04 declaring, “I’m going up to the lake without any more fooling.” Taking command himself, he pushed the
    0:42:12 little steamer through the rapids with brute force, defying his engineers’ warnings. Returning triumphantly
    0:42:18 to New York, Vanderbilt boasted of the Prometheus’ unmatched speed and fuel efficiency. Ever the showman,
    0:42:26 he even offered a $100,000 wager that no existing ship could surpass its performance. His innovative
    0:42:31 walking-beam engine design, contrary to conventional wisdom, proved more efficient and lighter than
    0:42:38 competitors’ side-lever engines. Despite significant challenges, George Law’s rival Panama route,
    0:42:46 and Nicaraguan political instability, Vanderbilt established the Accessory Transit Company in
    0:42:53 summer 1851. His Nicaragua transit route rapidly gained popularity thanks to his aggressive improvements,
    0:42:59 competitive pricing, and sheer determination. He overcame logistical hurdles by building specialized
    0:43:04 river boats, blasting through rapids, constructing a plank road, and adding more ocean-going ships.
    0:43:11 Vanderbilt’s Nicaragua venture shows his remarkable ability to execute complex operations before
    0:43:17 modern communications and management systems existed. Remember that this was over 170 years ago,
    0:43:23 and he was coordinating ocean-going vessels, river steamboats, and overland transportation across
    0:43:28 multiple countries, dealing with foreign governments and international rivals, all without telephones,
    0:43:33 computers, or even telegraphs to much of his operation. It’s a reminder of how much business
    0:43:40 success in this era depended on judgment, foresight, and an almost intuitive understanding of logistics.
    0:43:47 In November 1851, Vanderbilt’s third Nicaragua voyage nearly ended disastrously when a British warship
    0:43:54 fired warning shots, forcing him to pay a port fee. The incident triggered a diplomatic crisis resulting
    0:43:59 in a formal apology from London. Once labeled a fraud, Vanderbilt was now hailed by the press,
    0:44:06 which praised his indomitable resolution. Not just known for being rich, Vanderbilt was now becoming an
    0:44:14 international sensation. By 1852, Vanderbilt’s Nicaraguan shipping route exploded with profits.
    0:44:22 After a shipwreck near Mexico exposed his cold focus on revenue over rescue, tensions grew when his ex-partner
    0:44:28 Joseph White faked British financing. Vanderbilt retaliated. He drove down Accessory Transit’s stock,
    0:44:35 snapped it up cheap, then sold his fleet for $1.35 million, trapping short sellers and making a fortune.
    0:44:42 Sensing his own mortality, the Commodore decided on a rare vacation in Europe, leaving trusted
    0:44:47 associates in charge. Little did he know betrayal awaited while he was gone. He had never taken a
    0:44:54 vacation before and he’d never take one again. His yacht, the North Star, was the largest and most
    0:45:02 luxurious private vessel of its time, built at Vanderbilt’s own shipyard. At 270 feet and 2,500 tons with twin
    0:45:08 walking beam engines of his own design, it featured opulent interiors decorated with rosewood furniture,
    0:45:14 marble paneling, lace curtains, and ceilings adorned with paintings of American heroes.
    0:45:22 Vanderbilt’s motivations for the voyage were multifaceted. After decades of relentless work, he genuinely wanted a
    0:45:29 vacation. He also sought to repair strained family relationships by inviting extended family members.
    0:45:34 Additionally, he viewed the trip as a chance to showcase American engineering prowess abroad.
    0:45:40 As he told Senator Hamilton Fish: “I have a little pride as an American to sail over the
    0:45:45 waters of England and France with such a vessel as will give credit to the enterprise of our country.”
    0:45:52 Before departing, Vanderbilt carefully arranged his affairs. He removed Joseph White and his allies from
    0:45:57 the Accessory Transit Company’s board, replacing them with trusted associates including Nelson
    0:46:02 Robinson Robinson and Charles Morgan. However, while Vanderbilt toured Europe receiving widespread acclaim,
    0:46:09 betrayal was brewing at home. Charles Morgan, whom Vanderbilt himself had appointed to the
    0:46:16 Accessory Transit Board, secretly began buying up shares and aligned with Vanderbilt’s old enemy Joseph
    0:46:23 White. In July 1853, they staged a coup electing themselves directors and removing Vanderbilt as the
    0:46:29 company’s agent, cutting off his lucrative commissions by falsely claiming Vanderbilt was indebted to the company.
    0:46:36 When Vanderbilt returned to New York in September 1853 aboard the North Star, he discovered the betrayal.
    0:46:44 The Herald had already reported Morgan and White’s actions, noting ominously, “trouble is anticipated upon
    0:46:50 the return of Commodore Vanderbilt.” This betrayal allegedly produced what has become one of the most famous
    0:46:57 letters in American business history. Now listen to this: “Upon learning of Morgan and White’s treachery,
    0:47:04 Vanderbilt supposedly penned these immortal words, ‘Gentlemen, you have undertaken to cheat me. I won’t
    0:47:11 sue for the law is too slow. I’ll ruin you. Yours truly, Cornelius Vanderbilt.” The letter perfectly
    0:47:19 capturing Vanderbilt’s fierce reputation, bias toward action, and blunt style is likely apocryphal.
    0:47:24 Historians point out it first appeared decades later in Vanderbilt’s obituary without evidence
    0:47:29 and the language used doesn’t match Vanderbilt’s usual correspondence. True or false, it captured the
    0:47:36 essence of the man. Vanderbilt, known for frequent litigation since 1816, immediately filed lawsuits
    0:47:42 against Morgan and White, contradicting the letter’s claim that he would not sue. The letter may be
    0:47:48 myth, but Vanderbilt’s actual response was no less dramatic. He fired off a blistering public letter to
    0:47:54 James Gordon Bennett, editor of the Herald, denouncing the cowardice which, in my absence in a foreign country,
    0:48:01 dictated the columnist statement and calling it utterly false that he owed the company money. Far from eschewing
    0:48:07 legal action, he concluded with this warning, “My rights against the company will be determined
    0:48:13 in due time by the judgment of the legal tribunals.” When Morgan suggested arbitration but failed to
    0:48:20 follow through, Vanderbilt escalated his retaliation with financial warfare. On January 5th, 1854,
    0:48:27 he began aggressively short-selling accessory transit stock, selling thousands of shares he didn’t own
    0:48:33 at $25, betting prices would collapse. Morgan, recognizing the threat, desperately bought stock
    0:48:39 to maintain its price. The New York Times described the clash as a fierce contest of bull and bear,
    0:48:44 pitting two seasoned, wealthy financiers against each other in a ruthless battle for control.
    0:48:52 Vanderbilt doesn’t want to win, he wants to dominate. Twelve days later, Vanderbilt sprung his trap.
    0:48:59 New line of steamships to San Francisco, announced the Times. While Morgan was busy buying transit stock,
    0:49:05 Vanderbilt had been secretly refitting his luxury private yacht, the North Star, as a passenger liner
    0:49:11 to compete directly with accessory transit. And of course, when he put it on the market,
    0:49:17 the resulting fare war was unprecedented. Vanderbilt undercut the transit fare, slashing the price to
    0:49:23 less than a third of the going rate. Passengers flocked to what became known as the independent
    0:49:30 line, though conditions reflected the ruthless cost-cutting. The bloodletting extended beyond
    0:49:37 Morgan and White. Pacific Mail and U.S. Mail steamship companies, which had long dominated the California
    0:49:43 route, saw their revenues collapse as they tried to match Vanderbilt’s prices. All companies were
    0:49:48 hemorrhaging money, even Vanderbilt. One of his partners who had come in on the business with him
    0:49:54 actually went bankrupt, but Vanderbilt could take more pain than anyone else. By August 1854,
    0:49:59 Morgan and his allies capitulated. They purchased Vanderbilt’s steamships for $800,000,
    0:50:09 price far exceeding their original cost. Accessory Transit agreed to pay Vanderbilt an additional $115,000
    0:50:15 for his claims of every sort. The companies quickly restored fares to their previous high levels:
    0:50:24 $300 for first cabin, $250 for second, and $150 for steerage. But those who knew Vanderbilt’s history
    0:50:30 remained skeptical of his promise to stay away from the California trade. After signing Morgan and his
    0:50:37 allies breathed a sigh of relief. It was over. Or so they thought. In reality, it was just beginning.
    0:50:51 In November 1855, Cornelius Vanderbilt orchestrated a stunning financial coup. While Morgan and his
    0:50:56 allies thought the battle was over, the Commodore was buying his way back in and doing it at a discount.
    0:51:04 Only, typical to him, people didn’t yet know it was him. Wall Street buzzed with news that mysterious brokers
    0:51:11 were accumulating quantities of transit stock: 25,000 shares, nearly a third of all shares in existence.
    0:51:18 Behind this movement, as such operations were called at the time, stood Vanderbilt and two unlikely allies:
    0:51:24 Marshall Roberts of the U.S. Mail Steamship and William Aspinwall of Pacific Mail. These titans of shipping,
    0:51:30 men who considered themselves Vanderbilt’s social superiors, had decided to place their fortunes in
    0:51:38 his hand. Their plan was audacious: acquire accessory transit, get rid of Morgan and his allies, use Vanderbilt’s
    0:51:44 cost-cutting expertise to make it profitable again, then consolidate it with U.S. Mail and create a monopoly
    0:51:51 over all passenger traffic between New York and California. Roberts and Aspinwall would pocket
    0:51:57 millions while Vanderbilt would rule the most vital transportation corridor in America. The Commodore,
    0:52:02 who less than nine months earlier had publicly proclaimed his belief in unfettered trade and
    0:52:10 unrestrained competition, was now plotting to establish the very monopoly he claimed to despise. And it’s not
    0:52:14 like he was telling people what he was going to do. He was doing it through obfuscation,
    0:52:21 through silence and misdirection. Little did he know that 3,500 miles away, a small man with intense
    0:52:29 gray eyes was about to upend everything. On November 8th, soldiers executed General Corll,
    0:52:35 a respected military commander in the central plaza of Granada, Nicaragua. The man behind his death was
    0:52:40 William Walker, a slight, freckle-faced American whose penetrating gray eyes captivated everyone he
    0:52:45 met. Though he looked more like a priest than a revolutionary, Walker had just seized control of
    0:52:51 Nicaragua. Walker was a filibuster, not in the parliamentary sense of the word. He was a private
    0:52:58 citizen leading armed invasions of foreign lands under the guise of patriotic expansion. Born in Nashville
    0:53:05 and trained as a doctor and lawyer, he previously led a failed invasion of Mexico. Undeterred, Walker
    0:53:11 arrived in Nicaragua in 1855 with only 56 men, initially hired as mercenaries to fight for the
    0:53:18 liberal faction in Nicaragua’s civil war. His victory hinged on one brilliant maneuver:
    0:53:24 commandeering an accessory transit steamboat on Lake Nicaragua and capturing the conservative
    0:53:29 stronghold at Granada from behind. By taking prominent conservative families hostage,
    0:53:36 Walker forced General Corll into surrender. Walker established a puppet government headed by Patricio
    0:53:42 Rivas, a weak leader he easily controlled. Shortly after, Walker accused Corll of treason,
    0:53:47 orchestrated a quick trial by his own men, and executed him publicly, consolidating his power.
    0:53:53 Yet Walker knew his survival depended on reinforcements from the United States, making
    0:53:59 him dangerously reliant on Vanderbilt’s accessory transit company, a company Vanderbilt was determined
    0:54:05 to reclaim. Walker’s initial attempts to negotiate with transit executives Joseph White and Cornelius
    0:54:12 Garrison failed. Enter Edmund Randolph, a Virginia aristocrat and friend of Walker who proposed a daring
    0:54:19 conspiracy to Cornelius Garrison, transit San Francisco agent. Randolph intended to revoke the existing
    0:54:26 charter and grant a new charter to himself, cutting Vanderbilt out entirely. After initial hesitation,
    0:54:33 Garrison sent his son William to Nicaragua to secure Walker’s agreement. Walker enthusiastically accepted
    0:54:39 Randolph’s scheme, providing legal justification for cancelling Transit’s charter. By late December,
    0:54:44 Walker awarded the new transit rights to Randolph who immediately sold them to Garrison and Morgan.
    0:54:48 In return, they promised Transports Walker reinforcements at no cost.
    0:54:55 Meanwhile, Vanderbilt continued buying accessory transit stock, oblivious to the conspiracy forming
    0:55:01 behind him. Walker represented a threat Vanderbilt had never faced, someone wielding an armed force
    0:55:07 behind the reach of Vanderbilt’s usual tactics of financial warfare or intimidation. Vanderbilt was forced
    0:55:10 to enter the dangerous realm of international intrigue.
    0:55:17 Sylvana Spencer, a sailor known for his toughness and intimate knowledge of Nicaragua’s transit routes,
    0:55:23 became Vanderbilt’s unlikely hero. Armed with Vanderbilt’s backing and $40,000, Spencer traveled to Costa Rica
    0:55:32 and convinced President Juan Rafael Mora to help sever Walker’s supply lines. On December 23rd, 1856,
    0:55:37 Spencer’s troops silently overtook the filibuster garrison at Hips Point and captured Walker’s steamboats
    0:55:44 one by one, using Spencer’s expert knowledge to avoid suspicion. Spencer’s campaign culminated at San
    0:55:49 Carlos, a strategic fortress where he secured a bloodless surrender, crippling Walker’s supply lines.
    0:55:57 With his resources cut off, Walker’s position rapidly deteriorated. Following a prolonged siege,
    0:56:05 Walker surrendered on May 1st, 1857 and was safely escorted from Nicaragua. But Walker didn’t abandon his
    0:56:11 ambitions. In November, he attempted another invasion but was swiftly captured and forced to surrender by
    0:56:17 the U.S. Navy. His final expedition ended tragically when the British forces captured him and delivered
    0:56:23 him to the Honduran authorities, who executed him by firing squad on September 12th, 1860.
    0:56:31 Vanderbilt’s enemies fell one by one. After breaking Walker, he turned his focus to exacting revenge on
    0:56:38 Garrison and Morgan. When Garrison faced arrest in New York for alleged frauds exceeding half a million
    0:56:43 dollars during his tenure as transit company agent, he attempted reconciliation with Vanderbilt.
    0:56:47 Visiting Vanderbilt, Garrison proposed collaborating on the Walker grant.
    0:56:53 Vanderbilt sternly refused, emphasizing his actions were solely for the benefit of transit
    0:56:59 company and its shareholders, not for personal gain. Simultaneously, Vanderbilt intensified his
    0:57:05 dominance of the California steamship traffic and boldly targeted the Atlantic shipping lanes.
    0:57:11 On December 10th, 1855, thousands watched at Simpson’s shipyard as Vanderbilt launched the
    0:57:19 largest steamship of its era, aptly named the Vanderbilt. At 335 feet long with massive 42-foot
    0:57:27 diameter side wheels and five decks, it cost over $900,000, a clear demonstration of Vanderbilt’s wealth
    0:57:31 and determination to defeat the heavily subsidized Collin and Canard lines.
    0:57:38 The Vanderbilt’s maiden voyage in May 1857 was a stunning success, reaching England in
    0:57:44 record time. Newspapers lauded its unprecedented speed and luxury, prompting Vanderbilt to aggressively
    0:57:51 cut fares and strategically timed departures to undermine competitors. By 1860, the strategy had
    0:57:58 dismantled the Collins Line, forcing it to sell off its ships. In 1860, Vanderbilt also achieved total
    0:58:03 control of the California steamship traffic through an agreement with William Aspinwall,
    0:58:07 dividing the business between Vanderbilt’s Atlantic and Pacific steamship company
    0:58:14 on the Atlantic side and Pacific Mail on the Pacific side. Despite years spent dismantling monopolies
    0:58:20 through fierce competition, Vanderbilt pragmatically created his own monopoly once victorious, stabilizing
    0:58:26 fares and securing consistent profits. Vanderbilt’s influence was so immense that when the California
    0:58:32 postal contract ended in 1860, he boldly refused to carry the mail, threatening communication between
    0:58:39 coasts. This prompted President Buchanan’s personal intervention, promising Vanderbilt retroactive
    0:58:42 payment from Congress to maintain essential services.
    0:58:48 Even as Vanderbilt dominated ocean transportation, he began extending his reach into railroads. His
    0:58:55 involvement with the New York and Harlem Railroad began in 1857 when he joined its board alongside his son-in-law,
    0:59:01 Horace Clark and financier Daniel Drew. The company faced bankruptcy with large debts due amid the
    0:59:09 panic of 1857. Vanderbilt’s code of honor distinguished him in a crisis. When Drew refused
    0:59:15 to endorse the renewal of the railroad’s notes despite having accepted a commission, Vanderbilt confronted him
    0:59:22 directly. Mr. Drew, Vanderbilt declared, are you going to sign all these acceptances? Not one of them,
    0:59:28 Drew objected. Are you crazy? I’m going to sign all these and you are too, Vanderbilt insisted.
    0:59:34 Where’s the money to come from to pay for it, Drew asked. You and I will pay for it if no one else does,
    0:59:40 Vanderbilt replied firmly. I’ll do it if it takes the code off my back. I always honor my commitments.
    0:59:47 Drew eventually signed, nearly in tears. Vanderbilt later recounted with satisfaction,
    0:59:53 he did not dare cheat me. This incident highlighted Vanderbilt’s growing authority and strict adherence
    0:59:57 to business commitments, qualities that would prove vital as he expanded further into railroads.
    1:00:05 Drew would soon want revenge, but for the moment he waited. By 1860, Vanderbilt had achieved immense
    1:00:11 influence, described by the Chicago Tribune as almost knightly power. He controlled the Atlantic steamship
    1:00:17 traffic. He was the largest shareholder in Pacific mail and held prominent positions in New York’s Harlem and Erie
    1:00:24 railroads. His estimated wealth of around 11 million likely made him America’s richest private citizen.
    1:00:30 Vanderbilt represented something new in American business, a man whose wealth and power transcended the
    1:00:37 categories of the past. Beyond historical analysis, men followed this demanding profane titan out of
    1:00:45 genuine respect. When Captain Ludlow of the aerial died at sea during a fierce storm in December 1859,
    1:00:49 his final words were, “Tell the Commodore I died at the post of duty.”
    1:00:57 This loyalty reflected Vanderbilt’s core qualities. No one understood steamships better,
    1:01:00 took greater personal risks, or was more committed to keeping his word.
    1:01:06 As America entered the turbulent 1860s, Vanderbilt stood unmatched in power.
    1:01:15 He was hated, admired, resented, yet always respected, even by his enemies.
    1:01:25 As Cornelius Vanderbilt approached 70 in 1864, most men his age were considering retirement.
    1:01:31 Vanderbilt, however, was not most men. He’s an outlier and he was planning his greatest conquest
    1:01:38 yet. After decades dominating American waterways, the Commodore was now transforming himself into
    1:01:45 the railroad king. The stakes were immense. In an era before automobiles, highways, or air travel,
    1:01:51 railroads were essential to American commerce. The rail network represented far more than transportation.
    1:01:57 It was, according to a contemporary observer, “the most tremendous and far-reaching engine of social
    1:02:05 revolution which has ever either blessed or cursed the earth.” Just as steamboats had reshaped America
    1:02:12 decades earlier, railways now dramatically altered geography, economy, and society. Cities like Chicago
    1:02:21 grew exponentially, increasing from 43,000 people in 1850 to 400,000 people by 1870, driven primarily by its
    1:02:32 the most critical rail corridor in America. Vanderbilt’s railroad empire began with
    1:02:39 its purchase of the struggling New York and Harlem Railroad in 1863, a small line critics dismissed as
    1:02:45 “the only good for wrapping paper.” Vanderbilt, however, saw potential where others saw failure,
    1:02:51 aiming to create the only direct rail connection between New York City and the industrial heartland
    1:02:57 of New England. Driven by pride and a relentless pursuit of efficiency, Vanderbilt acquired the Hudson River
    1:03:06 Railroad in 1864, securing control over the only railways entering Manhattan. Yet, this is merely the starting point.
    1:03:13 To access the lucrative Midwest markets, Vanderbilt needed cooperation from New York Central Railroad,
    1:03:18 a major trunk line running from Albany to Buffalo. For three years, Vanderbilt patiently
    1:03:24 negotiated with the Central’s presidents, Ernest Corning and then Dean Richmond. Frustrated by the
    1:03:30 Central’s practice of diverting his railcars to competing steamboat lines, Vanderbilt repeatedly
    1:03:37 voiced his complaints. Though Vanderbilt preferred diplomacy to confrontation, a proposed merger between
    1:03:43 the railroads faced strong opposition. His lieutenant, Horace Clark, warned that such a move would shake the
    1:03:51 state to its center, appearing as an attempt to strengthen railroad monopolies. In August 1866,
    1:03:57 the landscape changed suddenly when Richmond died. Henry Keep, the Central’s new president, was a secret
    1:04:05 strategic thinker openly hostile to Vanderbilt. Keep vowed privately to take revenge against Vanderbilt,
    1:04:13 even if it cost him half his wealth. The breaking point came in December 1866, when Keep abruptly revoked
    1:04:19 a hard-fought agreement to pay the Hudson $100,000 annually for handling the New York Central traffic
    1:04:26 into New York City. So on December 29th, Vanderbilt met with Keep and his allies. William Vanderbilt
    1:04:32 repeatedly questioned Keep asking, “Gentlemen, you have repudiated our contracts and disrupted our
    1:04:39 established agreement. Do you have any alternative to propose?” Keep responded coldly, offering only minimal
    1:04:44 compensation. After five hours of fruitless discussion, Vanderbilt drove Corning, a more
    1:04:50 reasonable central director, to his hotel. “Mr. Corning, I’m very sorry we cannot get along together
    1:04:56 in this manner,” Vanderbilt remarked. “I am too,” Corning replied. “If it was left to just you and me,
    1:05:02 we could fix it in a little while. I believe we could,” the Commodore agreed. But this brief exchange
    1:05:07 clarified for Vanderbilt that Corning had no real authority. Keep held all the power, making further
    1:05:17 negotiations pointless. Soon after, Vanderbilt unleashed his most powerful weapon. On January 14th, 1867, the
    1:05:23 boards of the Hudson River and Harlem Railroads voted to sever all ties with the New York Central Railroad.
    1:05:29 They refused to accept any tickets or freight from the Central and halted all train crossings over the
    1:05:37 Albany Bridge. This decision amounted to a declaration of economic war with immediate and severe consequences.
    1:05:42 “It would place the New York Central Railroad in a position where it could no longer claim to be a
    1:05:49 primary trunk line between New York and Buffalo,” explained William Vanderbilt. “Amid a fierce snowstorm that
    1:05:55 paralyzed New York State, passengers were forced to cross the frozen Hudson River at Albany on foot or hire
    1:06:01 sleighs for transportation. Freight shipments from the west piled up, and alternative railroad connections
    1:06:08 dependent on unreliable ferry crossings due to severe weather failed to meet the demand.” Effectively,
    1:06:13 what’s happened here is Vanderbilt has isolated New York City from the rest of the world. He literally
    1:06:20 controls the ingress and egress through railroad lines, and he’s said no. The Brooklyn Eagle accused
    1:06:25 Vanderbilt of placing the city under strict blockade, describing his actions as criminal and deserving,
    1:06:31 exemplary punishment. When called before a legislative committee, Vanderbilt bluntly defended himself.
    1:06:37 When you talk about legally, I suppose your next question will be why didn’t you prosecute them?
    1:06:43 It is not according to my mode of doing things to bring a suit against a man that I have the power in
    1:06:50 my own hands to punish. The law as I view it goes too slow for me when I have the remedy in my own hands.”
    1:06:57 This was a striking display of private power overriding public interest. One man’s ability
    1:07:04 to disrupt a major city’s commerce for personal corporate objectives. If you were to judge this
    1:07:09 solely on its effectiveness, then you would conclude it worked and it worked quickly.
    1:07:15 Keep quickly capitulated. On January 17th, he urgently telegraphed Corning what is to be done.
    1:07:21 He handed full authority to settle the dispute to Corning and two other directors more inclined
    1:07:28 towards compromise. The trio promptly visited Vanderbilt’s office to negotiate peace. One director
    1:07:34 later acknowledged that Vanderbilt was the most eager to resolve the situation. On January 19th,
    1:07:38 a new agreement was finalized. The Central Railroad promised to deliver as much freight to the Hudson
    1:07:43 River Railroad as it received from them, ensuring no more empty cars returned from Albany. It also
    1:07:51 agreed to cover a portion of the terminal expenses. Keep was publicly humiliated. John M. Davidson wrote
    1:07:56 to Corning that Keep and Lockwood are large sellers. They flooded the market with stock. The swearing against
    1:08:01 Keep by the stockholders is intent. They’re considering a meeting to demand his resignation.
    1:08:07 So basically, Keep gets outmaneuvered by Vanderbilt. He dumps the shares. Davidson is telling us that
    1:08:12 Keep and Lockwood are both just flooding the market with their shares. So the share price is sinking.
    1:08:18 What Davidson did not yet realize, but Vanderbilt clearly saw, was the exceptional opportunity the
    1:08:25 crisis presented. As Keep and his partner dump their shares, Vanderbilt starts acquiring them.
    1:08:32 This marked a decisive shift in his tactics. After three years of diplomacy, he now aggressively moved
    1:08:38 to secure ownership, taking advantage of Keep’s weakening position. By the Central’s annual meeting
    1:08:45 in December 1867, Vanderbilt had acquired enough stock to seize control. His allies, including William
    1:08:50 Clark and Schell, were elected to the board. Keep’s presidency ended, and when Corning nominated
    1:08:57 Vanderbilt as president, the outcome was inevitable. In just four years, Vanderbilt had progressed from
    1:09:03 controlling the modest Harlem Railroad to dominating one of America’s major rail networks.
    1:09:10 The event underscores a critical lesson about leverage and power. Keep had mistakenly believed that his title
    1:09:15 as president granted him control, but Vanderbilt understood that true power came from ownership.
    1:09:22 Titles alone didn’t guarantee authority. CEOs holding little equity can be removed by boards or investors,
    1:09:27 whereas those with controlling stakes can dictate strategy and vision despite opposition.
    1:09:32 I just want to recap here for a second. Keep and Vanderbilt get into this fight.
    1:09:37 So Vanderbilt effectively humiliates Keep. Keep dumps the shares, because he’s like,
    1:09:43 he knows he’s getting ousted. So he starts dumping all his shares. Then Vanderbilt buys the shares. So the
    1:09:49 shares at depressed prices. So he effectively causes the share price to lower, and then buys the shares and
    1:09:56 takes control. This isn’t the first time he used this play bug. So with control of both the Hudson River and
    1:10:02 New York Central Railroads, Vanderbilt revived his earlier proposal for consolidation. Persistent
    1:10:07 conflicts between these interconnected lines had proven impossible to resolve through contractual
    1:10:12 agreements alone. A merger would align their interests and eliminate structural inefficiencies.
    1:10:19 So in 1869, Vanderbilt successfully secured legislation permitting the merger. The resulting
    1:10:24 New York Central and Hudson River Railroad was among America’s largest enterprises, boasting a
    1:10:30 capitalization of approximately $90 million in dominating the crucial transportation corridor from
    1:10:36 New York to Buffalo. This consolidation represented more than just another business transaction.
    1:10:43 It marked a fundamental transformation of American capitalism. Vanderbilt helped pioneer the concept
    1:10:48 of the giant corporation distinct from the individual ownership or management. By merging older
    1:10:54 railroad companies into a single entity focused on efficiency and profitability, he also shifted
    1:11:01 their original public service missions. The concentration of economic power raised concerns.
    1:11:06 It’s not a pleasant reflection, wrote Harper’s Weekly, that the great thoroughfare between the East
    1:11:13 and the West is in the hands of the Vanderbilt family. Despite these anxieties, Vanderbilt’s consolidation
    1:11:19 brought clear economic advantages. Resolving conflicts between the Central and Hudson River lines reduced delays,
    1:11:23 reduced delays, simplified operations, and significantly lowered costs.
    1:11:26 By 1870,
    1:11:31 Cornelius Vanderbilt had fundamentally reshaped American business. In just four years, he transformed himself from
    1:11:38 the Commodore of the Waterways into the Railroad King, building one of America’s most significant business empires.
    1:11:44 Vanderbilt’s railroad consolidation mirrored broader economic trends, the emergence of large
    1:11:50 corporate enterprises, increasingly abstract ownership structures, and concentrated economic power.
    1:11:56 He demonstrated both the benefits and the risks of this new corporate model. His railroad empire achieved
    1:12:03 economies of scale that lowered transportation costs and boosted economic growth. However, his blockade of New York
    1:12:09 raised troubling concerns about the extent of private influence within a democratic society.
    1:12:16 As Vanderbilt, now 75, surveyed his empire, he saw a nation transformed, not merely by railroads,
    1:12:20 but by the corporate structures he pioneered to build and manage them.
    1:12:27 William Lloyd Garrison had envisioned that improved communication and connections would unify societies,
    1:12:29 promoting common values and shared prosperity.
    1:12:36 Vanderbilt indeed united distant regions with iron rails, but the legacy of his work was not
    1:12:40 democracy or equality. It was the modern corporation itself.
    1:12:52 A statue of Cornelius Vanderbilt stands at the entrance of New York City’s Grand Central Terminal,
    1:12:58 overlooking Park Avenue South and the empire that he created. The infrastructure he built remains essential,
    1:13:05 even as the original corporation and dynasty established has faded. Yet, as Vanderbilt’s railroad
    1:13:10 directors noted after his death, this work will go on, though the master workman is gone.
    1:13:17 Cornelius Vanderbilt is often portrayed as a ruthless Robert Barron, but the reality is more nuanced. He
    1:13:23 embodied fascinating contradictions, a fierce competitor who preferred diplomacy, a tough negotiator who
    1:13:29 carefully balanced aggression with patience. His railroad empire consolidating the Harlem, Hudson River,
    1:13:36 and New York Central railroads was built only after repeated attempts at peaceful negotiation failed.
    1:13:42 Vanderbilt’s mergers produced a corporate giant from Manhattan to Lake Erie, ushering in bureaucracy,
    1:13:49 delegation, and unprecedented efficiency. By his death, he reportedly held one-ninth or one-twentieth,
    1:13:53 depending on how you count it, of all U.S. currencies, sparking debate over his wealth,
    1:14:00 democracy, and the unsettling power of massive corporations. America had entered its era of great
    1:14:07 fortunes, and Vanderbilt had led the way. Vanderbilt’s legacy is nearly entirely heroic nor villainous,
    1:14:12 but reflects America’s shift from rural merchants and farmers to corporate industrialism. He was an
    1:14:19 individualist who built institutions, a practical navigator who pioneered an abstract economy. He was
    1:14:25 at the forefront of the industrial revolution. His relentless drive and continual reinvention
    1:14:33 defined not just his life but also the nation’s transition into modern times. As his railroad directors
    1:14:38 aptly summarized Vanderbilt’s greatest monument was the lasting framework he established. The work will go
    1:14:48 on, though the master workman is gone.
    1:14:54 All right, I want to cover a few reflections before we get into the lessons that you can take away from
    1:15:01 this. This guy is such a badass. He’s done so many things. So there’s so many points in this story,
    1:15:06 like this is a skeleton of his life. We missed a whole bunch of things. I’m going to tell you a few
    1:15:11 of them. But each of these things could be their own episodes, like each of these little battles on
    1:15:18 the seas or the Nicaragua thing or the railroad battles. Like this is crazy. We didn’t even cover
    1:15:24 the Erie battle with Jay Gould and Daniel Drew comes back for that one. And we just didn’t have time
    1:15:28 because I want to keep these reasonably short. So we’ll cover some of this more in the future. But I
    1:15:34 wanted to give you a sketch of the person and some of the things you can learn from him. Now we didn’t
    1:15:41 have time to get into this either. But Vanderbilt was not a role model as a parent or partner. I mean,
    1:15:47 he applied a lot of the same tactics that he championed in business. He applied at home and
    1:15:52 they had a much different result. Instead of leading to success, it led to disaster.
    1:15:57 Another fascinating angle to this that we’ll maybe cover in another episode in the future is
    1:16:04 how his heirs managed to squander the world’s largest fortune in only a few generations. It’s a
    1:16:11 story that involves New York society, royalty, lavish parties, wives trying to one up each other,
    1:16:16 legal battles and so much more. Interestingly, Anderson Cooper wrote a book on this and he
    1:16:23 would know because he is after all a Vanderbilt. You can take your learning to the next level for
    1:16:28 these two. Like one of the things that people email me and they’re like, what book did you use? So we
    1:16:34 highlight the books we used for this. It was Tycoon’s War and we used the first tycoon. We also put my
    1:16:39 highlights into the repository that you can access. So if you’re a member at Farnham Street, if you go
    1:16:45 to fs.blog/membership, you can actually search all my highlights from all the books and all the episodes
    1:16:51 and see what I underline when I was reading the book. Okay, I want to get into some of the lessons that we
    1:16:58 can take away from Vanderbilt and how we can use them and maybe apply them in life. So the first lesson
    1:17:03 is ride the wave. When a better technology came along, Vanderbilt jumped on it. He went from
    1:17:08 various to steamships to railroads without trying to cling to the past. The guy did not think about
    1:17:13 sunk costs. He went all in and I admire that about him. A lot of people would have been trying to
    1:17:20 sort of walk that line between both, but not Vanderbilt. He went all in. Two, patience. He didn’t need
    1:17:25 quick wins. He wasn’t looking for validation from other people. He’d rather take a temporary loss if it
    1:17:31 meant owning the market later. He would always do what was in the long-term interests of himself and not
    1:17:36 the short-term interests. Which leads me to three, which is his ability to take pain. Physical
    1:17:41 pain from powering through blizzards when no other ferry captain would. Financial pain from slashing
    1:17:48 prices to zero profit and sometimes at a loss just to drive out rivals. Psychological pain threatening to
    1:17:53 block rail traffic to and from New York City and then doing it. And he survived all these scenarios and
    1:17:59 crushed everyone else. The man could take more pain than almost anybody I’ve studied.
    1:18:05 Four, control. Vanderbilt wasn’t really interested in being a passive shareholder. He wanted control
    1:18:09 or nothing. He didn’t want to sit on the sidelines and watch somebody else do it. He wanted to lead.
    1:18:15 Five, showmanship. It’s easy to root for the underdog and Vanderbilt often positioned himself that way
    1:18:20 against a big monopoly. Then once he beat them, he essentially became the monopoly. But by that point,
    1:18:26 he already had public sympathy on his side. And he was also a bit of a showman too. Whether racing
    1:18:33 steamboats or blocking the rails, he made business feel like high drama. And that’s part of why his legend
    1:18:37 endures today. He was always the talk of the town, even when he was the one pulling the strings behind
    1:18:45 the scenes. Six, go all in. If you cross Vanderbilt, it wasn’t enough for him to beat you. He wanted to
    1:18:52 finish you financially or otherwise. He didn’t just win, he dominated. Seven, positioning. Vanderbilt operated
    1:18:59 with very little leverage so he could always take advantage of his rivals’ misfortunes. He also would cause
    1:19:03 poor positioning in other people. He knew when people were selling or buying, he would often force
    1:19:08 them to sell and he would short the stock. They would sell, it would drive down the price and then
    1:19:13 he’d buy it back and he’d either take control. He was always in a position to capitalize on the
    1:19:20 circumstances that forced other people into bad hands. Eight, move in silence. Yes, he might say I’m
    1:19:26 going to ruin you, but he rarely telegraphed how he’d do it. He made clandestine stock purchases,
    1:19:32 he turned enemies into allies and he pulled off secret deals. By the time rivals realized it was
    1:19:38 too late. Nine, make money. Vanderbilt made money in many ways. It reminds me of a quote by John D.
    1:19:43 Rockefeller who said, “I have ways of making money that you know nothing of.” Vanderbilt made money on
    1:19:49 competing. He made money from not competing. He made money from monopolizing and he understood where the
    1:19:53 real money was, like the lucrative mail contracts from New York to San Francisco.
    1:19:59 And that’s the lessons you can take away from this. Thank you for listening and tune in next time.
    1:20:17 Thanks for listening and learning with us. For a complete list of episodes, show notes,
    1:20:23 transcripts, transcripts, and more, go to fs.blog/podcast or just Google the Knowledge Project.
    1:20:27 The Farnham Street blog is also where you can learn more about my new book,
    1:20:33 Clear Thinking: Turning Ordinary Moments into Extraordinary Results. It’s a transformative
    1:20:40 guide that hands you the tools to master your fate, sharpen your decision-making, and set yourself up for
    1:21:00 unparalleled success. Learn more at fs.blog/clear. Until next time.

    Cornelius Vanderbilt was a force in 19th century America, playing a pivotal role in transitioning the U.S. economy from rural mercantilism to industrial corporate capitalism. Vanderbilt didn’t just compete—he dominated; and didn’t just dominate one industry—he conquered three: ferries, steamships, and railroads. He understood that power lay in controlling infrastructure and not just operating within it. His cutthroat tactics were both feared and admired but his vision for what the economy could be was undeniable. 

    This is the story of how Vanderbilt turned calculated aggression into an art form, how he endured more pain than his competitors, and how he built systems that outlived him. 

    Learn the mindset, strategies, and brutal lessons behind his dominance; the game of business hasn’t changed as much as you think. 

    (02:20) Prologue

    (05:12) PART 1 – The Dutch Inheritance

    (08:21) The Young Boatman

    (12:30) Capitalizing on War

    (15:27) General Merchant of the Sea

    (19:29) PART 2 – The Meeting That Changed Everything

    (21:48) The Steamboat Wars

    (24:12) The Anti-Monopoly Crusader

    (27:06) The Rise of the Commodore

    (32:08) The Monopolist’s Nemesis

    (34:58) PART 3 – Sole Control

    (37:28) Prometheus

    (40:18) Star of the West

    (44:06) Europe and Betrayal

    (48:15) The Independent Line

    (50:13) PART 4 – The Commodore’s Return

    (51:55) Gray Eyed Man of Destiny

    (53:36) The Conspiracy

    (54:41) Finishing Walker

    (55:54) Conquering the Seas

    (58:13) America’s Wealthiest Citizen

    (60:47) PART 5 – Vanderbilt’s Railroad Dominance

    (01:01:59) The Path to Confrontation

    (01:03:37) The Breaking Point

    (01:04:43) The Power to Punish

    (01:06:32) The Collapse

    (01:07:50) The Silent Conquest

    (01:08:57) The Consolidation

    (01:10:54) The Legacy

    (01:12:15) FINAL PART – Vanderbilt: The Architect of Modern American Business

    (01:14:19) Reflections

    This episode is for informational purposes only and most of the research came from reading The First Tycoon by T.J. Stiles and Tycoon’s War by Stephen Dando-Collins.

    Check out highlights from these books in our repository, and find key lessons from Cornelius Vanderbilt here — fs.blog/knowledge-project-podcast/outliers-cornelius-vanderbilt

    Upgrade — If you want to hear my thoughts and reflections at the end of all episodes, join our membership: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠ and get your own private feed.

    Newsletter — The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at fs.blog/newsletter

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  • #221 Bruce Flatt on Value, Discipline, and Durability

    AI transcript
    0:00:03 The fundamentals of investing hasn’t changed at all.
    0:00:08 Buying great things or great businesses, holding for long periods of time, earning cash returns.
    0:00:11 What’s changed is the environment around it.
    0:00:14 The whole backbone of the world is changing.
    0:00:21 Behind your phone or your computer, you can have this podcast on your cell phone and go for a run in the morning.
    0:00:31 How that gets delivered to you is data center storing it, fiber delivering it to you, going to a tower and bringing it down to your phone wireless.
    0:00:37 And all of that needs enormous amounts of infrastructure, and all of that is built by private enterprise.
    0:00:46 50% of the backbone of what we own today did not exist as an asset class for investment 20 years ago.
    0:00:49 Well, you have over a trillion dollars in management now.
    0:00:51 It sounds like a lot of money.
    0:00:53 It is a lot of money.
    0:00:54 It’s a trillion dollars.
    0:00:58 But it’s not that much when you do what we do.
    0:01:08 Welcome to The Knowledge Project.
    0:01:10 I’m your host, Shane Parrish.
    0:01:16 In a world where knowledge is powered, this podcast is your toolkit for mastering the best of what other people have already figured out.
    0:01:26 If you want to take your learning to the next level, consider joining our membership program at fs.blog.com.
    0:01:38 As a member, you’ll get my personal reflections at the end of every episode, early access to episodes, no ads, including this, exclusive content, hand-edited transcripts, and so much more.
    0:01:41 Check out the link in the show notes for more.
    0:01:45 Most investors see markets as a race to outperform every quarter.
    0:01:49 Our guest today, however, sees them as a marathon measured in decades.
    0:01:59 As CEO of Brookfield Asset Management, he’s quietly spent decades building a trillion-dollar business, investing patiently in the invisible machinery of the global economy.
    0:02:13 While others chase short-term returns, Flat position Brookfield to capitalize on massive global shifts from digitalization and low-carbon energy to a reshaped global supply chain, years before they appeared on anyone else’s radar.
    0:02:22 In this rare public conversation, it’s only the second podcast he’s ever done, Flat reveals not just what he invests in, but how he thinks.
    0:02:35 From spotting trends early to structuring deals for resilience across economic cycles to placing big, bold bets that compound steadily over time, he offers a masterclass in patient, disciplined investing.
    0:02:50 Whether you’re allocating capital, building a business, or simply navigating uncertainty, you’ll learn how one of today’s most influential but private investors sees around economic corners and why his ability to ignore short-term noise might be his greatest competitive advantage of all.
    0:03:02 I want to start with how investing has changed over the past 23 years, I think, since you’ve been CEO.
    0:03:06 Look, on the first level, I’d say it hasn’t changed at all.
    0:03:17 What investing is about is to buying great things or great businesses, holding for long periods of time, earning cash returns, and that hasn’t changed at all.
    0:03:21 So, the fundamentals of investing are exactly the way they were before.
    0:03:24 What’s changed is the environment around it.
    0:03:27 And I mentioned a couple things.
    0:03:31 First one is many businesses are publicly traded.
    0:03:40 And the indexing and passive investing has changed the publicly traded market for investments.
    0:03:44 It’s very different than the actual investments.
    0:03:46 The investments are still the same, and what we do is still the same.
    0:03:53 How they trade in the market and whether they’re included in indexes has changed how they trade in the public markets.
    0:03:58 So, I think that is probably the fundamental biggest thing.
    0:04:14 The second thing, and this is, I’d say maybe the most simple way to say it is, 50% of the things that we invest in today did not exist as an investment asset class for investors like us 20 years ago.
    0:04:16 50%.
    0:04:19 And we invest in the backbone of the global economy.
    0:04:20 Like, these are simple things.
    0:04:22 We deliver your water in the morning.
    0:04:25 We toll the road you drive on in the afternoon.
    0:04:29 We deliver your power to your house.
    0:04:34 We, the data center that powers your phone, we own.
    0:04:38 Those are all really backbone things.
    0:04:39 So, what we do is backbone.
    0:04:43 This is not innovative venture capital that we’re doing.
    0:04:51 But 50% of the backbone of what we own today did not exist as an asset class for investment 20 years ago.
    0:05:01 What percentage of that would you say is new things versus governments maybe privatizing some of the services they used to deliver?
    0:05:06 When we started in infrastructure 25 years ago, we were among the first.
    0:05:10 We thought that it would be governments privatizing.
    0:05:12 And to some extent, it is.
    0:05:15 And it’s not, they’re not privatizing because they have a hard time selling assets.
    0:05:19 What they do is they’re just not investing.
    0:05:20 Therefore, private enterprise takes it up.
    0:05:29 But the biggest area of investment today is really just the whole backbone of the world is changing.
    0:05:37 So, the digitization of the whole world behind your phone or your computer.
    0:05:42 As you know, laptops didn’t exist before.
    0:05:43 The internet didn’t exist before.
    0:05:45 Cell phones didn’t exist before.
    0:05:50 Today, you can have this podcast on your cell phone and go for a run in the morning.
    0:06:01 How that gets delivered to you is data center storing it, fiber delivering it to you, going to a tower and bringing it down to your phone wireless.
    0:06:05 And all of that needs enormous amounts of infrastructure.
    0:06:08 And all of that is built by private enterprise.
    0:06:16 Virtually every, in fact, not virtually, all of that is delivered to you as an individual.
    0:06:21 And this is 8 billion people in the world getting that delivered to them in various forms.
    0:06:23 It’s all delivered by private money.
    0:06:25 And that’s what’s changed.
    0:06:29 It’s before, historically, that was built out by governments.
    0:06:33 Today, it’s being built out by private enterprise.
    0:06:37 You know, to use an example, we own all of the telecom towers.
    0:06:41 Not all, but we own a very substantial portion of the telecom towers in India.
    0:06:49 They deliver all the phone and wireless infrastructure to many individuals in India.
    0:06:52 And that was originally built by Reliance Industries, GEO.
    0:07:01 We bought it from them and we support their and other telecom companies’ activities through those telecom towers.
    0:07:04 And historically, that would have been built by government.
    0:07:08 But it was, that’s built by private enterprise.
    0:07:14 Let’s go back to the rise of passive, maybe versus historically more active investing.
    0:07:15 What implications do you see?
    0:07:17 What opportunities are created?
    0:07:24 Look, in everything, when I say there’s a problem, there’s always an opportunity.
    0:07:27 And I think that’s the Chinese symbol, right?
    0:07:28 Problem and opportunity.
    0:07:33 For some companies, smaller, midsize, don’t fit indexes.
    0:07:42 They will be lost within public markets investing because active investors may not be investing in those sectors anymore.
    0:07:45 And if you don’t fit the indexes, you have no buyers.
    0:07:59 Increasingly, though, what it’s doing is that it’s creating a large disparity in some securities at points in time between the price of them in the market and the value of the underlying assets.
    0:08:04 Back to, you asked me first question, what has changed in the investing world?
    0:08:05 And I said nothing.
    0:08:07 That’s related to value.
    0:08:13 What’s changed is the price of some things trades up and down.
    0:08:22 If over the last 18, 24 months, if you’ve been one of the big technology stocks in the world, everyone needed or wanted to buy you in the indexes.
    0:08:25 And therefore, their multiples traded very high.
    0:08:34 But if you were something that didn’t neatly fit the indexes, it traded at a low price.
    0:08:38 The opportunities are that we can take those companies private.
    0:08:42 So, we took a large container shipping company private.
    0:08:46 It had one analyst and nobody following it.
    0:08:48 It fit in no indexes.
    0:08:50 It was a $6 billion company.
    0:08:52 And we took it private.
    0:08:54 And it’s been an exceptional investment.
    0:09:05 So, we continue to, I’d say, capitalize on opportunities where we understand the value and the price is not trading at that in the markets.
    0:09:10 Success in business isn’t just about having a great product.
    0:09:13 It’s about having the right systems behind it.
    0:09:20 The businesses that scale efficiently, that grow beyond expectations, all have one thing in common.
    0:09:22 They make buying effortless.
    0:09:26 And when I shop online, I notice the businesses that get it right.
    0:09:29 More often than not, they’re using Shopify.
    0:09:34 Shopify powers millions of businesses with the number one checkout on the planet.
    0:09:37 And with ShopPay, I can check out in seconds.
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    0:09:46 But Shopify isn’t just a tool.
    0:09:50 It’s an entire e-commerce platform built to scale with you.
    0:10:01 Whether you’re starting small or growing fast, Shopify makes it easy to sell wherever your customers are, on your site, in their feed, in stores, or anywhere they’re already scrolling and buying.
    0:10:03 And the numbers speak for themselves.
    0:10:16 Businesses using ShopPay see conversion rates up to 50% higher than other checkouts, fewer abandoned carts, more completed sales, and a seamless experience that keeps customers, like me, coming back.
    0:10:20 Upgrade your business and get the same checkout I use with Shopify.
    0:10:26 Sign up for your $1 per month trial period at shopify.com slash shane.
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    0:10:31 Go to shopify.com slash shane to upgrade your selling today.
    0:10:34 Shopify.com slash shane.
    0:10:39 If you want to get something done right, you need the right system.
    0:10:42 Our team learned firsthand when shipping out my books.
    0:10:43 It sounds simple.
    0:10:44 Print a label.
    0:10:45 Send a package.
    0:10:49 But when you’re handling orders at scale, the complexity adds up fast.
    0:10:51 That’s why I use ShipStation.
    0:10:56 You can focus on other parts of your business because you never have to worry about shipping and fulfillment.
    0:11:00 Again, with ShipStation, help eliminate the busy work.
    0:11:04 Instead of jumping between platforms, I manage everything in one place.
    0:11:11 It automatically finds the best rates, prints labels, in a click, and tracks shipments without thinking about it.
    0:11:14 ShipStation lets me focus on what actually matters.
    0:11:17 Writing, thinking, and running my business.
    0:11:19 It scales with demand.
    0:11:23 So whether I’m shipping a few books or a few thousand, the process stays smooth.
    0:11:28 And with discounts up to 90% off major carriers, it saves money, too.
    0:11:32 Over 130,000 companies have grown their e-commerce business with ShipStation.
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    0:11:45 Switch to ShipStation today.
    0:11:50 Go to ShipStation.com slash knowledge project to sign up for your free trial.
    0:11:59 What can you do with a private company that you can’t do with a public company?
    0:12:04 Well, firstly, you don’t have to look at what the price is versus the value.
    0:12:07 You just know what the value is and you run it for what it is.
    0:12:18 But secondly, we can operate differently, finance differently, invest for the future, and run a business like somebody should just run it.
    0:12:28 If you and I owned a business privately, we wouldn’t care about whether the stock went up or down tomorrow morning.
    0:12:29 We just run our business.
    0:12:30 Cash flow comes out.
    0:12:34 We decide, should we divin it out to ourselves to use together?
    0:12:36 Or should we keep it in the business and invest?
    0:12:45 And that’s really the difference is all you look at is the fundamentals of your business if you’re private.
    0:12:56 And if you’re public, people tend to get distracted by the trading price of the security when it’s not really relevant.
    0:13:03 Some businesses need access to capital and have to raise capital and therefore their price is important.
    0:13:09 But most businesses that are listed don’t need access to capital.
    0:13:15 They’re only listed because they’re large and they happen to be just – they need owners and therefore they’re in the public markets.
    0:13:22 They’re never issuing equity and therefore the price of the security in the market really doesn’t matter.
    0:13:35 And in fact, it’s a distraction, which is why when people often ask me what happened with the alternatives industry and why did it grow the extent that it grew over the last 25 years?
    0:13:51 And it’s really grown that way because private assets are – the fundamentals are exactly perfectly matched to the fundamentals of what institutional investors want to have in their portfolios.
    0:14:00 And maybe even more importantly, by owning them privately, they don’t have to have the distraction of the public market.
    0:14:07 They don’t have to get confused that you and I bought a telecom tower business.
    0:14:10 It generates a 6% yield.
    0:14:13 It grows at 4% every year.
    0:14:17 And we don’t have to invest much cash flow into it.
    0:14:18 So, it’s free cash flow.
    0:14:26 And if it’s privately owned, it’s just – we just watch the cash flow and keep growing and try to enhance the business and grow it.
    0:14:27 And that’s what we do privately.
    0:14:36 If it trades in the public market and today it’s worth $20 and tomorrow because of whatever happens in the markets, it’s worth $10, nothing changed in the business.
    0:14:43 And that distraction is what causes people issues.
    0:14:45 They sometimes make rash decisions.
    0:14:55 And I’d say that’s maybe the biggest enhancement to long-term investors by having private assets.
    0:14:58 I take it you’re not an efficient market hypothesis person.
    0:15:01 You know, I – no.
    0:15:02 The answer is no.
    0:15:07 The markets are never efficient.
    0:15:13 In fact, very seldom do they ever trade at the actual value of securities.
    0:15:18 Most of the time, they trade above or below.
    0:15:21 Very seldom do they trade at the value.
    0:15:23 But yes, I guess there are many theories in life.
    0:15:34 Let’s talk about some of the trends going on in the world today that you see from your aperture that you think have a long runway that we’re maybe just beginning on or maybe in the middle endings on.
    0:15:44 So we generally have three sort of themes that we invest around or – we have a few themes we invest around at all points in time.
    0:15:44 Today we have three.
    0:15:56 The first one is just the digitalization of everything and the amount of capital that’s being invested behind that digitalization.
    0:16:18 And really what it is is there are many, many, many, many, many trillions of dollars going into the movement of information into the cloud, onto your phone, and just the digitalization of everything behind it.
    0:16:34 And that has been enhanced, increased, enhanced, by artificial intelligence and the networks being set up now to harness artificial intelligence.
    0:16:42 And maybe the most simplest way to explain it is everyone thinks of artificial intelligence as chat GPT.
    0:16:48 I’m going to get it to write my cooking class memorandum.
    0:16:58 But really what the – where the money is going to be made is the application of artificial intelligence into business.
    0:17:14 And simply stated that’s taking processes in service and industrial businesses and making them more efficient by using advanced robotics who have learned how to make –
    0:17:20 how to run those processes from models run on artificial intelligence.
    0:17:23 And we’re in the very, very early stages of that.
    0:17:36 But from an infrastructure standpoint, the amount of money being put behind this is in amounts which have almost never been seen invested before.
    0:17:40 So that’s sort of the first theme we have of investment.
    0:17:50 And it both affects our operating businesses because we’re now applying artificial intelligence in our business to make them better and they’ll be more productive.
    0:17:59 And we’re also investing and supporting many of the technology companies with their funding for the re-digitalization of the world.
    0:18:08 Let’s spend a few minutes on digitalization before we move on in the sense of there’s vast data centers being created today.
    0:18:20 I would love to hear your thinking on whether that investment is going to be where winners are accrued or re-overinvesting as we typically do in booms and busts.
    0:18:27 And then walk me through sort of like how you see winners emerging in this from end to end, right?
    0:18:32 You generate energy, you lease data centers, you – walk me through how you see that.
    0:18:38 So there’s no straight line in investing to success.
    0:18:43 And usually at points in time, people will lose money because they get overexcited.
    0:18:51 But there’s – we’re in a period of time where this is a major, major build out of what’s going on.
    0:19:00 The clear winners in this AI revolution are going to be the major technology companies.
    0:19:01 That’s sort of easy.
    0:19:03 They’re very sophisticated.
    0:19:05 They have large balance sheets and capital to deploy.
    0:19:12 They’ve already developed models and they’re going to be very, very – they’re going to win.
    0:19:13 They’re going to win.
    0:19:14 And they have the data.
    0:19:15 And they have enormous amounts of data.
    0:19:18 So all of – they’re going to win.
    0:19:19 That’s easy.
    0:19:28 Like I’m not sure there’s anything that I would – that’s helpful to anyone listening to this if I tell you, oh, you should buy Google.
    0:19:32 These are going to be great companies and they’re going to continue to be great.
    0:19:45 The winners that are unknown today are the companies that are going to figure out how to apply artificial intelligence into their businesses and make them better.
    0:19:53 And there are many businesses today where you cannot get people to operate the businesses.
    0:19:55 There just aren’t enough people.
    0:20:12 And if you can, therefore, deploy robotics into businesses and shrink the amount of labor you need or there are plants that are being operated in Asia that had high dollar value.
    0:20:13 That’s why they went there.
    0:20:16 But the reason – high dollar value products.
    0:20:18 But they went there because there was high labor component.
    0:20:28 If you can shrink the labor component, many of those plants can come back to where the demand is, specifically, I’d say, the United States.
    0:20:41 So, the unknown winners are going to be the companies that can apply artificial intelligence into their businesses and make them more efficient and more profitable.
    0:20:45 And I think those that do it will win.
    0:20:46 Those that don’t, some will fall behind.
    0:20:53 But the productivity advances we see over the next 20 years probably will be unprecedented for a period of time.
    0:20:59 Certainly, we haven’t seen it for a long time in business across America.
    0:21:06 Is there anybody you’re tracking externally that you would never acquire, that you admire how they’re applying sort of technology?
    0:21:09 You know, we’re in the early, early stages of this.
    0:21:12 And so, we’re trying to learn from everybody.
    0:21:14 We’re talking to many.
    0:21:22 We, of course, given our scale, we have access to very significant resources and we can talk to most people.
    0:21:24 So, we talk to all the technology greats.
    0:21:27 We deal with all of them fundamentally in our business.
    0:21:35 In addition to that, we’re continuing to learn and apply these technologies within our business.
    0:21:54 And what I can tell you is the early learnings of our business, some of our industrial businesses are, and why I say the things I just said to you, is that the early learnings are that the advancement of productivity is very, very significant.
    0:21:57 And you see that in your battery.
    0:21:59 Like, you guys make half the batteries in the world, don’t you?
    0:22:04 Look, we make just under half of the car batteries.
    0:22:04 Yeah.
    0:22:10 I mean, we make the little car battery that starts your car, you know, when you get up in the morning, it doesn’t start, and you have to go get a new one.
    0:22:11 So, that normally-
    0:22:12 Happens all the time.
    0:22:13 Half of those-
    0:22:13 In winter.
    0:22:15 Half of those will come from us.
    0:22:15 Yeah.
    0:22:17 That are out there.
    0:22:20 And it’s an amazing business.
    0:22:25 And we continue to re-you know, we’re always trying to optimize businesses.
    0:22:39 Our job is to invest in businesses and make them better so that they will grow greater amounts of cash flow so we can continue to invest in the businesses and provide dividends to our owners.
    0:22:55 And so, as we try to make these better, we’re applying artificial intelligence into all our businesses, including that battery business, which is, and why it’s a perfect one for these type of applications is we have 25,000 people in 20 plants.
    0:23:03 We do very repetitive process, and as a result, and we have $9 billion of costs within the business.
    0:23:13 If you can improve those by 30%, that’s a lot of money to the bottom line, and it can be very significant for the company.
    0:23:18 Is there another example that stands out about how you’re applying AI to the businesses that you control?
    0:23:31 You know, every single business we have, we have a healthcare business where we have, we approve your healthcare in the United States.
    0:23:41 If you need a back surgery and you need authorization from your insurance company to do it, we take the phone call from you, and we approve it online.
    0:23:49 We approve your $150,000 operation or not, and our agents do that.
    0:23:57 And today, the amount of information we can put up when you call in is incredible, even from two years ago is incredible.
    0:24:06 And that just helps us make better decisions quicker and serve our clients who are the healthcare companies better.
    0:24:08 And, but it’s everywhere.
    0:24:19 You know, the putting, we’re, you know, we’re applying these type of things in all the businesses, but we’re in the, we’re in the first inning of this.
    0:24:26 So it’s, um, anybody that has started should start, uh, be, and it’s not too late.
    0:24:29 We’re in the early innings of the application of this.
    0:24:31 It’s exciting to see where it’s going.
    0:24:33 So we have a trend of digitalization.
    0:24:35 What other big trends do you see?
    0:24:42 The second one is that there is a transition of the world to low carbon energy.
    0:24:49 And, uh, and I say it that way because what, what’s really important here is we just have less carbon out there.
    0:25:06 And, and, but what’s, what’s even more important today is that solar and wind, which is where we’re, um, which is what’s filling the gap, are the lowest cost energy sources for power in the world, in most countries today.
    0:25:16 And why that’s really important is it doesn’t matter whether you choose to have less carbon or no, don’t care about less carbon.
    0:25:19 What you do choose is to pay less for your power.
    0:25:24 And, uh, and that, that, that’s the, the simple economics are today.
    0:25:28 If you go to somebody and say, do you want to pay more for your power?
    0:25:32 They will say, they will say, no, I don’t want to pay more for the power.
    0:25:33 I’d rather pay less.
    0:25:38 And, and as a result of it, the lowest cost power in most countries of the world is solar and wind.
    0:25:40 Therefore, you’re going to choose solar and wind.
    0:25:45 So it’s inexorable that we’re going to build out most, more solar and wind in the world.
    0:25:52 Um, in the United States today, there’s no doubt we’re drilling more oil, which is, remember, oil is not used in power.
    0:25:58 Oil is used for basically cars, chemicals, and, um, planes.
    0:26:04 They, it goes into jet engine fuel, goes into car engine fuel, and it goes into chemicals.
    0:26:06 And that has nothing to do with power.
    0:26:08 Uh, oil is not used for power.
    0:26:14 Natural gas is, and a natural gas is one of the great assets the United States has.
    0:26:17 Um, it’s going to export it for a long time.
    0:26:19 It’s going to use a lot of it in America.
    0:26:24 Eventually batteries and nuclear will be the base load and it won’t be natural gas,
    0:26:29 but it’s being shipped elsewhere in the world.
    0:26:36 And where it’s going to is needed for base load because they, they, um, they, they need that,
    0:26:43 that base load power or it’s replacing coal, which is hugely beneficial to the world.
    0:26:52 So, natural gas is an incredibly important bridge fuel in America and long-term fuel in many other places in the world.
    0:26:59 So, the LNG market, uh, in the United States is extremely important and very lucrative for a long period of time.
    0:27:01 So, let me make sure I understand this.
    0:27:09 So, wind and solar, low cost, and then gas is sort of the base load when there’s no wind or solar because we don’t yet have the batteries to time shift?
    0:27:16 Well, you know, we have, we have base load capacity in the U.S., which is nuclear, um, that will continue to grow.
    0:27:19 We can talk about nuclear if we have time later.
    0:27:28 Um, what’s happening, uh, in, in grids is that you need something to stabilize the grids and to store when,
    0:27:38 because remember, solar, the sun only shines during the day, it’s usually dark at night, and wind actually, usually only blows at night.
    0:27:50 But you normally don’t have, the, the, um, incidents of both together are not always the case, and you have to have something to bridge one of those.
    0:28:11 And, uh, increasingly, in past, nuclear’s done that, and gas has done that, increasingly battery storage, uh, at scale, distributed, will help both with trends, transmission bottlenecks, but also with the, um, the two offsetting, uh, amounts.
    0:28:16 How do you see the trend with, like, data centers in terms of electrical use?
    0:28:21 Do you see that continuing to be, because these take a long time to permit, to get into place?
    0:28:24 Or do you see that reducing, uh, in time?
    0:28:34 So, so the reason why, uh, one of your questions earlier, which I really didn’t answer, was, um, our data centers, are we, like, are we going to get in trouble with the amount of money that’s going into data centers?
    0:28:41 And the answer is no, and it’s largely because it takes a long time to permit a data center.
    0:28:42 Mm-hmm.
    0:28:53 You need to find power to power the data center, and the needs of the technology companies are very significant, and on top of that, energy usage everywhere is going up.
    0:29:08 And as a result of that, it just takes time to bring sites on, and most sites today that are available to be built are already contracted to somebody for the next 20 years.
    0:29:29 So, um, we’re in a, we’re at a, a point in time where it’s, it’s, we’re now trying to entitle new sites, and we’re, because of our vast real estate business, our vast power business, our vast data center business, we’re as skilled and as, um, integrated as they are to entitle new sites.
    0:29:50 But it takes time, and, um, we’ve got some really exciting large sites coming, but these most, the earliest big one that’s going to come on that’s brand new that we’re entitling will, and even though it has enormous advantages because of, it already has power, it’ll be years away.
    0:29:56 And so, you’re, like, all your risk is, you’re de-risked because you’re not doing it unless it’s contracted out, is that?
    0:29:58 Generally, yes.
    0:30:13 We’re not, uh, we don’t, we’ve, we’ve, in the past, we never have, and, uh, I don’t think we, um, we need to take risk on that, and therefore it’s like, when we build an office building, you know, you’re, you, you let it to a bunch of tenants, then you build it for them.
    0:30:19 And, uh, you don’t have to take the risk on that, in particular in these, because of the, um, demand for it.
    0:30:22 And what’s the third trend that you see?
    0:30:38 So, so the, the third trend that we, um, identified a long time ago, and I’d say it’s, uh, changed even more, but is more relevant today than ever, which is just the de-globalization of industry.
    0:30:46 And I, or I’d call it the re-industrialization of countries because of what’s going on in the world.
    0:30:48 And, uh, that started with COVID.
    0:31:08 It started with, um, uh, the Asia West issues, which, as you can imagine, that one has only, um, the, the, uh, since we coined that four years ago, five years ago, it’s only increased given what’s been going on.
    0:31:22 Um, but increasingly many companies are moving, uh, industrial capacity back to Western markets where on balance they can, um, make sense of putting plants there.
    0:31:28 And part of it’s for supply chain, pharmaceuticals, uh, need, now need to be next.
    0:31:38 Some of it needs to be next to customer, um, because they get caught during COVID that all of a sudden all my manufacturing’s in China.
    0:31:39 How do I get it here?
    0:31:41 It can’t get out of China.
    0:31:59 So increasingly those type of things, um, but, but also with tariffs and with other things, um, you’re going to, uh, relocate manufacturing capacity back to, to other markets and, and be low, more local.
    0:32:15 Um, and, um, what I would say is things, many things went to Asia and a lot of them will stay there and the Asian markets will be fine with this because they’ve, they’ve now matured to the point where they are service economies in themselves.
    0:32:29 But, um, many products that have been developed there will move back to America because the labor components with robotics coming in are becoming less and less and less.
    0:32:36 So the reason for them to be in Asia is, um, less there today than it’s ever been.
    0:32:47 And on top of that, if there happens to be a tariff long, if there is a tariff longer term, then, um, then it’s even going to quicken that process up.
    0:32:57 What do you see as the second order, either opportunities or challenges to that sort of call it repatriation of manufacturing?
    0:33:01 Look, I think China, it’s a, it’s an economy in itself today.
    0:33:03 It’s 1.5 billion people.
    0:33:05 They’re getting richer every day.
    0:33:08 They’re turning into a consumer service society.
    0:33:11 There’s not that much of manufacturing that’s relevant to them.
    0:33:17 I think they will, they will do extremely well as a country, uh, on their own.
    0:33:29 But there are some countries in the world where they haven’t yet transformed themselves to be service economies and they’re reliant on jobs that were from outsourced manufacturing.
    0:33:37 And if you can do that closer to consumer, those, um, countries may have some issues.
    0:33:43 On balance for Western countries, I’ll just take the U.S.
    0:33:50 As an example, you’re bringing some jobs back, maybe not as many as left before to make the product.
    0:33:52 But if that product comes back, you’ve actually added jobs.
    0:34:06 And, uh, and that’s very positive, which sort of leads to the long-term story of America, which is the long-term story of America is extremely strong because, um, the U.S.
    0:34:18 today has, uh, energy, capital, and technology dominance, energy, capital, and technology dominance.
    0:34:22 There’s nobody in the world that has a technology businesses that the U.S. has.
    0:34:26 There’s nothing in the world that has the capital markets the U.S. has.
    0:34:42 And, um, the U.S. just by nature has dominance, nature and some hard work has dominance in oil, in gas, in solar, and in wind, and it has dominance in nuclear.
    0:34:49 And those five things together give it energy dominance in the world for a long, long period of time.
    0:35:07 And, um, so I think those three, those three things are going to make, on top of one of the greatest GDPs in the world, an entrepreneurial class, manufacturing moving back, at least to some extent, a lot or to some extent.
    0:35:10 On balance, it’s going to be positive for, for growth.
    0:35:15 Um, the U.S. has a pretty good runway going forward.
    0:35:26 It sounds like you think we’re at an inflection point for productivity and some of the, the job losses will be offset by sort of the remanufacturing, uh, coming back to the U.S.
    0:35:32 How, how do you, where do you think we are in that, like that game, I guess?
    0:35:35 There is no straight line in anything.
    0:35:39 Everyone always thinks that, uh, somebody says something and it’s going to happen tomorrow morning.
    0:35:48 Usually, usually it happens, uh, in greater amounts, but it takes longer periods of time and takes slower than you think it would happen.
    0:35:52 Um, I, I would say we’re in the early stages of all of this.
    0:35:56 Uh, we’re seeing, going to see productivity advances and nobody just flips a switch.
    0:35:59 Thing is, nobody ever flips a switch.
    0:36:03 These are incremental changes over very long periods of time.
    0:36:23 But it’s, what it means is that, is that the application of greater intelligence into businesses is going to, um, make business better, more efficient, more productive, and, um, and better, better, better for the world, frankly.
    0:36:27 Um, that, that, that just makes us all, uh, smarter.
    0:36:28 You mentioned real estate.
    0:36:33 How has that changed over the past, I would say 10, but specifically five years?
    0:36:43 You know, again, I would say, uh, over the past, uh, 25, 30 years, 10 years, five years, um, these things always just evolve.
    0:36:56 And, uh, you know, industrial capacity used to be just used for manufacturing, storage of goods, and today it’s used for transportation of many goods that are delivered to homes.
    0:37:02 So industrial has changed, enormously changed as a business over the past 10 years.
    0:37:10 Retail has changed because people used to do all their shopping, uh, uh, in stores.
    0:37:17 Today, what they do is they do very bespoke shopping in stores and they want experiences in stores.
    0:37:21 But if you want to buy paper towels, you usually don’t go to the mall.
    0:37:23 You just order it online.
    0:37:32 And, um, but, but if you want to have a meal and you want to go and try on a shirt or pair of pants or have some fun for the afternoon, you go to the mall.
    0:37:41 And that’s, that’s what’s changed is that commodity goods, if you own commodity, if you want almost today commodity anything, it’s bad.
    0:37:43 If you own commodity office, bad.
    0:37:45 If you own commodity retail, bad.
    0:37:47 If you own commodity industrial, bad.
    0:37:49 In fact, if you own commodity hotels, bad.
    0:37:58 Um, if you, what’s great today is all of those things in the top 25%.
    0:38:05 And our, our view always has been buy the best, uh, own the best, buy the best, continue to reinvest into the best.
    0:38:07 And so our real estate is among the best in the world.
    0:38:14 Um, and we continue to, um, experience some, some great numbers.
    0:38:26 Uh, look over the last five years because of COVID and because other things, and because interest rates went up by 400, 500 base points, um, all of that disrupted the real estate market.
    0:38:31 But the, the worst is, uh, behind us by far.
    0:38:37 We’re looking in the real view mirror by, by, um, uh, what happened in real estate.
    0:38:43 And in fact, this time the fundamentals are actually pretty good in most things.
    0:38:52 Um, it’s just, there are some people that have, uh, capital structures that aren’t built for these financing markets.
    0:38:59 Uh, and therefore they have to put capital in to be able to deleverage or whatever they have to do or, or somebody else will take over the asset.
    0:39:05 Um, but that’s not a, a huge issue across the world.
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    0:41:09 Maybe spend a few minutes and sort of like take me behind the scenes in how you think about risk and how you think about interest rates and how you think about debt when it comes to assets.
    0:41:19 Our fundamental thesis of investing is that you should put a prudent amount of debt on assets that can withstand markets.
    0:41:24 If you can, then you should fix it because you know your cost.
    0:41:33 And from time to time, if you got it wrong, you put a little more, make sure you have a little more money around to put it in and support your asset.
    0:41:39 So, we’ve always conservatively financed our businesses and assets.
    0:41:45 All of our financing is asset by asset by asset by asset or business by business by business by business.
    0:41:54 So, any debt that we accumulate onto our consolidated balance sheet is just the accumulation of a whole bunch of single asset financings.
    0:42:04 And it’s not that we ever want to or think that we will give back assets or not live up.
    0:42:13 In fact, our reputation is with our lenders is that we’re one of the best sponsors in the world to borrow, lend money to because we support our businesses.
    0:42:21 But buying, having asset by asset by asset by asset financing allows you to just deal with the situation one by one by one.
    0:42:27 And its duration, I mean, they’re spread over long, long periods of time.
    0:42:36 And with interest rates, I think the most important thing to remember is we don’t borrow the treasury rate.
    0:42:38 Only the government borrows at treasury rates.
    0:42:44 And what we borrow at is treasury rate plus spread.
    0:42:44 Yeah.
    0:42:53 And historically, spreads were 200 basis points and interest rates were 300 basis points and therefore you borrow it at five.
    0:42:58 And when COVID hit, interest rate, the treasury rate went to zero.
    0:42:59 Yeah.
    0:43:06 And what the borrower, most of the lenders said to us is, meh, I’m not going to lend you at 200 over and give you three.
    0:43:10 I’m widening that out to 350.
    0:43:15 So I’ll give you five or four and a half.
    0:43:21 And therefore, before we were borrowing at five and in COVID, we were borrowing at four and a half.
    0:43:25 So when people say, oh, geez, you got all this financing in COVID.
    0:43:36 Yes, maybe some people did and some people got very low rates because rates were zero and they might have borrowed at two at an extreme point in time,
    0:43:37 but not very much.
    0:43:40 And most of it, lenders just widened the spread out.
    0:43:43 Today, base rates are high.
    0:43:44 We’re back to five.
    0:43:45 Guess what?
    0:43:49 Spreads are the lowest they’ve ever been in history.
    0:43:55 We just did a 30-year Brookfield Corporation financing.
    0:44:02 So we’re borrowing money for 30 years fixed for that time period and is 125 over.
    0:44:10 So spreads, basically all in coupons are important.
    0:44:20 And that’s really important to remember about investing in real assets, real estate, but also infrastructure, renewables, et cetera.
    0:44:25 What distortions do you see by sort of like historically low interest rates?
    0:44:27 And even by today’s standards, you mentioned they went up.
    0:44:32 They have gone up quite a bit, but historically, they’re still well below average.
    0:44:33 Yeah.
    0:44:43 Look, I think that maybe is the most important point to note here is that interest rates aren’t that high.
    0:44:48 They’re higher than they were because interest rates went to zero.
    0:44:52 And for a number of years after the financial crisis, they were close to zero.
    0:44:57 And now they’re actually in a relatively normal range.
    0:45:04 I’m sure we’re going to see another 50, 100 base points off of the short rates.
    0:45:10 And we’re going to settle into just a regular range of rates.
    0:45:19 But these rates are actually pretty normal and for our business, very constructive.
    0:45:25 And the things that we can do and we’re refinancing it because the coupons aren’t that much different than what they were before.
    0:45:42 People, we talked about sort of dislocations providing opportunities and, you know, maybe spend a few minutes walking me through how you think of positioning to manage the recycle, but not only maintain your assets, but also take advantage of dislocations in the market.
    0:45:52 So the first thing one has to do when there are dislocations in the market is make sure that you were prepared for it.
    0:45:59 So the one thing you should do always when times are really good is ensure that you’re preparing for the down markets that’s coming.
    0:46:06 The ones that don’t usually aren’t successful in the fullness of time.
    0:46:13 But if you are prepared, the first order of business is let’s double down and make sure that we’re fully prepared.
    0:46:25 But then secondly, and I’d say coming out of recessions or cycles, coming out of the bottom, what’s most important is just have everything you have intact.
    0:46:27 Do not lose anything.
    0:46:33 Do not lose too much and keep going because there’ll be many people who will have lost stuff.
    0:46:43 What’s even better to enhance the business is at that point in time as the market’s starting to recover.
    0:46:56 And once you’re comfortable, we’ve taken care of all the things within our business that you can then invest capital into new businesses at that point in time.
    0:47:08 That’s the difference between the great winners and long-term investing and those that are just in the middle.
    0:47:12 You have almost, well, you have over a trillion dollars in management now.
    0:47:17 How do you fend off the pressure to deploy that money?
    0:47:20 It sounds like a lot of money.
    0:47:22 It is a lot of money.
    0:47:23 It sounds like a lot of money.
    0:47:25 It’s a trillion dollars.
    0:47:28 But it’s not that much when you do what we do.
    0:47:36 A couple of years ago, we bought Deutsche Telekom, half a Deutsche Telekom, telecom tower business in Germany and Austria.
    0:47:38 It’s a $20 billion transaction.
    0:47:42 We’re building for Microsoft $13 billion of power plants.
    0:47:50 We’re building with Intel a $32 billion fabrication plant in Arizona.
    0:47:52 You know, I can go through the list.
    0:48:00 These are large transactions that consume significant amounts of capital that earn excellent long-term returns.
    0:48:09 And I’ve just used that to say we’ve been doing this a long time.
    0:48:24 What we promise our investors and our clients is that we will take moderate amounts of risk, not no risk, but moderate amounts of risk, and earn good returns over long periods of time.
    0:48:26 We won’t shoot the lights out.
    0:48:29 You’re not going to get 45% returns every year.
    0:48:32 And we’re not trying for that.
    0:48:38 But average returns over an above average period of time equal outstanding returns.
    0:48:39 And that’s the point.
    0:48:46 The point is, our parent companies earn 19% annualized returns for 30 years.
    0:48:52 When you compound up, which doesn’t sound like very much, 19% returns annualized for 30 years.
    0:48:56 Like, just when you say that in that line, it doesn’t sound like that much.
    0:49:03 But I think that’s a million dollars became almost $200 million over that period of time, or $1,000 became $200,000.
    0:49:04 It’s a lot.
    0:49:14 And so the point is, success in investing isn’t about making a lot of money in a short period of time.
    0:49:21 What it’s really about is earning reasonable returns over very long periods of time.
    0:49:23 And look, that’s Berkshire Hathaway.
    0:49:34 Berkshire Hathaway is successful because they have been able to deploy capital at reasonable rounds of turn over very long periods of time.
    0:49:39 And that’s the success of long-term investing.
    0:49:41 Is that a company you look up to?
    0:49:46 Look, they’ve done an incredible job in their business over a very long period of time.
    0:49:48 Maybe you mentioned over 30 years.
    0:49:53 Walk me through a little bit of the history of Brookfield and then the future, where we’re going.
    0:49:56 So we started as an operating business.
    0:49:59 We just invested for ourselves.
    0:50:05 We had the businesses that we basically have today.
    0:50:14 Infrastructure, real estate, renewables, and industrial service, we call private equity today, businesses, and credit lending.
    0:50:15 Those were our five businesses.
    0:50:17 We did it for ourselves and we lent money.
    0:50:39 And 25 years ago, we decided that we could take those skills we had and turn them into a business to be able to manage some of our money and some of our institutional or other clients’ money and offer alternatives into those funds.
    0:50:45 When it started, nobody wanted to invest with us because they didn’t really understand alternatives.
    0:50:49 And today, that’s turned into a trillion-dollar business.
    0:51:02 It’s been extremely successful, largely because these products are ideal for institutional and retail clients to invest into.
    0:51:11 And the past 25 years has been about institutional and this comment is not meant to say that they won’t be investing.
    0:51:20 But their increase from going from zero to some of them are at 30%, 40%, 50% alternatives.
    0:51:24 When you go from zero to 50%, you can’t go to 100%.
    0:51:27 So, a lot of them are at their numbers.
    0:51:36 But what’s happening today and to your question of the future is that the same phenomena is now happening in retail.
    0:51:38 Retail being individuals.
    0:51:41 401ks in the U.S. are going to open up to alternatives.
    0:51:45 I think plans around the world will open up to alternatives.
    0:51:50 Alternatives are ideal products for retail as well.
    0:51:56 In fact, they’re almost more ideal because you’re saving for your retirement.
    0:52:06 And what better to have in there than a product that earns a reasonable return over a very long period of time and can compound.
    0:52:21 And so, the future of our asset management business is really about that, the opening up of retail and continued growth of retail wealth with our products.
    0:52:27 Doing the same things that we do for institutions, exact same.
    0:52:34 But now, just opening up in different types of products that are suited or tailored for individuals.
    0:52:36 What does that mean?
    0:52:40 Maybe walk me through it because, you know, I’ve always thought you’ve had these available to people.
    0:52:43 I could go buy Brookfield Infrastructure on the public market.
    0:52:47 You can buy it in the public market that fits in a stock portfolio.
    0:52:55 But to date, we haven’t offered you a product for your 401k in the private market.
    0:52:56 Okay.
    0:53:05 That was open to you to say, do you want to buy infrastructure with us and just own a bunch of data centers and different things like that?
    0:53:22 We happen to have a couple of listed ones that are very unique, but what people want is private assets within their portfolios, and that’s going to increase, I’d say, exponentially over the next 20 years.
    0:53:27 So, retail is sort of the future, but another big area that you’re investing in is insurance.
    0:53:32 Maybe walk me through some of the opportunities you see over the next 20 or 30 years in insurance.
    0:53:44 Yeah, so outside of our asset management business, we decided to take a portion of our capital and put it into insurance five years ago.
    0:53:57 It was a fortuitous time because we bought some excellent insurance companies at a point in time where they weren’t doing very well because interest rates were extremely low and they weren’t earning very high returns on their capital.
    0:54:01 Fast forward four years later, the companies are doing extremely well.
    0:54:05 We’re making $2 billion a year of cash flow within the business.
    0:54:11 And insurance for us is, I’d say the following.
    0:54:19 Firstly, and maybe just to go back, our goal was get in the insurance business, not because we wanted to be in insurance.
    0:54:31 What our goal is, is our clients come to us because they want our investment skills.
    0:54:40 What we have is a very unique offering, is a bunch of investment skills that can create products for long-term investors.
    0:54:52 Our insurance company now, being $120 billion of assets, is a perfect long-term investor into all of the things we do for our asset management business.
    0:55:14 We have a special expertise to be able to offer because we have greater access or greater comfort with all the investment products to be able to put into the insurance companies than most other groups out there.
    0:55:18 Maybe there’s a few others like us, but not very many.
    0:55:21 And therefore, we have a special benefit for that.
    0:55:26 So, we’ve chosen annuities in the United States largely.
    0:55:29 So far, we’ve now just got licensed in the United Kingdom.
    0:55:32 Why annuities?
    0:55:33 What appeals to you about that?
    0:55:36 It’s just because they’re low-risk liabilities.
    0:55:40 We’re not taking on high risk on the liability side.
    0:55:46 Our goal originally in getting into this was don’t take risk on the liabilities, earn our money on the asset side.
    0:55:53 And we have this unique ability to earn excess returns on the asset side.
    0:56:10 And our goal was put very significant amounts of capital and overcapitalize the businesses, which allows us to do things on the asset side of the balance sheet, which is very different than many insurance companies.
    0:56:11 Like what?
    0:56:14 You know, we can own real estate to a greater extent.
    0:56:16 We can own alternatives to a greater extent.
    0:56:18 We can own infrastructure to a greater extent.
    0:56:24 We can own high-yield bonds as opposed to just fixed income on the market.
    0:56:29 All the things that we do for our clients, we can put them in the insurance company.
    0:56:34 And they may take more capital, but we’ve overcapitalized the company.
    0:56:36 So, we started with $4 billion.
    0:56:44 We’ve increased the capital, I think, to $16, $17 billion of book equity within the business.
    0:56:46 We continue to overcapitalize.
    0:56:57 But on top of that, we have another $150 billion of capital up top that if we need more money, we’ll put it into the insurance companies to ensure they’re healthy and better than any that are out there.
    0:57:08 And we have an excellent relationship with the regulators and explain all these things to them and are very transparent with all the transactions we do with them.
    0:57:30 And we happen to have some very unique things that we can do because, you know, for example, if we own an office building and somebody owns the other half and they want to sell and we know that’s a really cheap price they’re going to sell at, that’s a great real estate investment for our insurance company.
    0:57:36 Very seldom do people have that opportunity with our knowledge and access to opportunities.
    0:57:40 So, it’s a pretty unique offering.
    0:57:43 And that’s what we bring to the table.
    0:57:48 Do you think you’ll get out of annuity, well, stay in annuities but expand into other businesses?
    0:57:57 I’m imagining short duration stuff is probably a property and casualty doesn’t lend itself to that type of investing, but maybe reinsurance or?
    0:58:03 Yeah, look, I would say we wanted to start, this is a 25-year venture.
    0:58:04 We’re five years in.
    0:58:10 We wanted to start to make sure that we knew what we were doing.
    0:58:13 We met all our regulators.
    0:58:14 We earned their respect.
    0:58:21 And we could operate and figure out what were all the risks.
    0:58:23 We’ve been in it five years.
    0:58:24 We’re very comfortable.
    0:58:36 Over time, we may branch out into other types of other products that we can understand that fit our skill set.
    0:58:39 And that’s really what’s important to us.
    0:58:47 So, first, we’re expanding internationally writing annuities or pension risk transfer annuities, which are both are very similar.
    0:59:03 So, instead of going out of our comfort zone on the type of liability, what we’re doing today is we’re expanding to the UK, which is a big pension risk transfer market.
    0:59:06 And that’s just a different way to expand.
    0:59:09 Are the pension risks defined benefit or defined contribution?
    0:59:19 These are pension risk transfer means, which happens in the US, Canada, and the UK largely, those three places in the world.
    0:59:27 What it means is that if there’s a corporation that has a defined benefit plan that wants to get it off their balance sheet.
    0:59:31 So, they have a $10 billion plan.
    0:59:33 There’s 10 billion assets, 10 billion liabilities.
    0:59:37 They can commute that plan to us and we can, our insurance company can take it.
    0:59:40 So, they’re no longer on the hook for the plan.
    0:59:44 They’re no longer at risk on the assets or the liabilities.
    0:59:46 We’ve assumed that risk.
    0:59:48 We will now pay their pensioners.
    0:59:55 And they gave us the assets to earn over time, hopefully, the amount of money to pay all their pensioners.
    0:59:57 And if not, we’re on the hook for it, not them.
    1:00:03 Can you spend a few minutes walking me through the machinery of Brookfield and why you’ve structured it the way you have?
    1:00:05 Look, I would just say –
    1:00:11 I’ll preface this with like one of the criticisms from the outside in is that it’s super complicated.
    1:00:14 There’s a lot of different entities and moving parts.
    1:00:15 How do you think through that?
    1:00:22 So, I would just say that, yes, there are probably more pieces of Brookfield.
    1:00:36 First-hand launch, I might disagree first by saying there are many companies in the world that are large like us and they have as many pieces as we do.
    1:00:38 That’s the first point.
    1:00:40 So, I’m not sure that’s actually a true statement.
    1:00:46 But I’ll take your points at face value.
    1:00:53 And I would just say each one of the pieces we’ve set up has been highly thought through and contributes a lot to the business.
    1:00:57 These are not random things we’ve done.
    1:01:03 They’re very specific and they contribute enormous value in the long term to the company.
    1:01:12 And because of that, we have to explain them more to maybe – sometimes have to explain them more to investors.
    1:01:24 But for our friends, they understand exactly why those pieces are there and what they do for us and what each accomplishes.
    1:01:34 In the short term, we could wave a wand and get rid of all those, as you denote, complicated parts.
    1:01:36 We could wave a wand and get rid of them all.
    1:01:40 In the long term, it would be bad for shareholders.
    1:01:43 Less returns would be earned.
    1:01:47 We would be more at financial risk.
    1:02:00 We would have – we have the maximum amount of flexibility within our structure to be able to go through, deal with opportunities, risks, and everything that’s out there.
    1:02:09 So, I just – I – look, we can always do better on explaining the pieces and we try all the time.
    1:02:14 And it’s incredibly – our reputation is incredibly important to us.
    1:02:24 So, when people criticize us about our structure, our different things that are there, we try to double down and make sure we explain it all to people.
    1:02:32 But what I – I would just say that each of those pieces is really important and contribute a lot to the business.
    1:02:39 Hypothetically, if you were to all put it under one umbrella, how would that change the opportunity set available to you?
    1:02:44 It would just mean dilution to some shareholder.
    1:02:50 And, for example, we spun off our asset management business two years ago.
    1:02:59 There’s a whole group of U.S. investors, largely, that buy asset management businesses that only want to be invested in asset management.
    1:03:03 They don’t want to own assets that we own.
    1:03:05 They don’t want to be invested in insurance.
    1:03:07 They don’t want to do all the other things we do.
    1:03:21 They don’t want to change – like our parent company, Brookfield Corporation, it has changed in 35 years in many different ways in many different times for the benefit of all of us.
    1:03:27 But you need to trust us when we’re changing.
    1:03:36 Brookfield Asset Management is a pure play asset management business that’s asset light that will probably never be anything different.
    1:03:40 You can trust us for that and that’s what it is.
    1:03:50 So, they’re just different audiences and it just allows us to have a security which is tailored to that audience.
    1:04:04 And if we want to offer it to somebody in the public markets or to another alternative manager we want to merge in or something, it gives us the opportunity to do that and not have to deal with all the other issues that we have.
    1:04:09 Well, what about your insurance business or what about your investments or what are you going to do next?
    1:04:13 And it just allows us to do that.
    1:04:16 So, I don’t – we could do it.
    1:04:20 It just would take away a lot of the great benefits we have in the organization.
    1:04:28 If you put your investor Bruce hat on, which of the businesses do you think is the best positioned for the next 15 years?
    1:04:29 And I’m not asking returns.
    1:04:33 I just mean which business do you think is the best competitively positioned?
    1:04:35 I just think they’re all different.
    1:04:37 They’re all totally different.
    1:04:44 Everything we invest into has enormous opportunity going forward as long as we execute properly.
    1:04:47 But they’re – each one of them is different.
    1:04:50 I get excited.
    1:05:00 I could get excited about having all of my net worth in every single one of them and they’re all pretty exciting going forward.
    1:05:03 Maybe spend a few minutes on talent and people.
    1:05:10 Brookfield is known to take really big bets with what from the outside looking in would be young people.
    1:05:14 What do you see in people that gives you the confidence to take bets in them?
    1:05:20 How do you build a culture where meritocracy rises and people can take big bets?
    1:05:26 So we’ve always had the view that – well, firstly, we’re an extreme meritocracy.
    1:05:28 This is a partnership.
    1:05:30 It’s a partnership of individuals.
    1:05:39 When we leave the partnership, our shares that if you’re an owner or controller of the partnership, they go away.
    1:05:41 They go on to somebody else.
    1:05:47 So nobody’s family will ever be part of this partnership.
    1:05:48 It’s a meritocracy.
    1:06:10 Second, we’ve always had the view that a cross between wise, older people and smart, aggressive, young people both give you the gravitas to deal with situations which you need a little history.
    1:06:18 But also allow you to be – allow you to know more about what’s going on today.
    1:06:26 I’m positive our 30-year-olds today in the business know more about technology than I do because they’ve grown up with it differently.
    1:06:38 It allows us to be faster, better, quicker to every new trend in the world and what’s going on out there.
    1:06:47 And it also, I’d say, creates a culture where people want to be here and get ahead because they know they can.
    1:07:04 And so I – look, we brought to the partners and to our senior people three years ago, we brought Connor Teske forward as the next person that will be the CEO of the asset management business.
    1:07:10 That was internally vetted.
    1:07:20 It was then externally vetted and today we’re in the process of him continuing to meet clients and investors and all those kind of things.
    1:07:23 And I think he’s 37 years old today.
    1:07:31 He’s incredibly passionate, talented, and he’ll bring through a whole new group of people within the company.
    1:07:38 And re-energizing businesses is what makes them better and different.
    1:07:42 Walk me through some of those meetings where you’re making a big investment decision.
    1:07:43 What goes on behind the scenes?
    1:07:45 How do you quantify risk?
    1:07:46 Where do you spend your time on deals?
    1:07:53 Our investment process is we only invest in things that we deal with and know.
    1:07:58 We have people on the ground and our knowledge of the business.
    1:08:07 And we’re – our investment committees are normally only focused on downside protection.
    1:08:10 Upside will always take care of itself.
    1:08:17 And whether you shoot for 16%, 22%, 29%, 18%, none of those matter.
    1:08:19 They’re all great.
    1:08:23 What’s really important is what are the risks?
    1:08:25 What can go wrong?
    1:08:27 How bad could it get?
    1:08:31 And how do we deal with it if that happens?
    1:08:39 And so we spend virtually all of our time on downside protection at our investment committees and that’s all that’s important to us.
    1:08:41 When you’re wrong, where are you typically wrong?
    1:08:44 And you haven’t been wrong a lot.
    1:08:44 No, no.
    1:08:45 Look, we make mistakes.
    1:08:47 We try to make small mistakes.
    1:08:48 I’d say that’s it.
    1:08:51 When we’re wrong, where are we wrong?
    1:09:15 We’re wrong in increment – in small ways which aren’t – you don’t know about them very much because in the last 35 years, we’ve been right generally on the large things and nothing has been irreparably harmful.
    1:09:26 And that’s because the things we do are small, incremental, and when we make mistakes, we make them along the way.
    1:09:37 And we encourage people to keep learning and growing because if you don’t make some mistakes, you never advance, but do not make big mistakes.
    1:09:42 And I’d say that’s the biggest thing we try to impress across the organization.
    1:09:44 You mentioned the investment committee.
    1:09:52 I just wonder, behind the scenes, are investment decisions signed off by one person or is it a committee that signs off?
    1:09:56 And if it’s a committee, how do you hold people accountable or responsible for those?
    1:10:08 So our – usually what happens is some transaction came into the company some way or we had an idea and we don’t talk to somebody and a transaction came about.
    1:10:13 It’s then approved by – it’s approved by today because we have these vast businesses.
    1:10:25 It’s approved in the business, but then we have one committee that – it’s almost like an allocation committee up top because we want to know how many – across the organization, we want to know how many transactions are happening at any one point in time.
    1:10:29 So we’re not compromising, like you said, how could you make a mistake?
    1:10:37 If everybody made a massive transaction at the same point in time, what we’re probably betting on is a cycle.
    1:10:40 And you may not want that.
    1:10:42 And if you do, you better knowingly do it.
    1:11:00 And so in addition to all the deals being approved down below where accountability comes from, we have an oversight committee that approves everything that goes on in the organization, which includes six or eight of us.
    1:11:10 And that approves everything really just to be a final governor over the entire organization.
    1:11:19 Are there patterns to cycles that you notice in advance of them happening where you’re like, we’re at the first inning or we’re at the late stages?
    1:11:21 What are the signs that you look for?
    1:11:33 I would just say that cycles are never the same, but they sort of rhyme and they look similar.
    1:11:41 So the one thing of having wise older guys around, I’ll consider myself that today.
    1:11:47 I used to be a young, unwise individual.
    1:11:49 I’ll try to consider myself.
    1:11:51 I know I’m old, just not sure I’m wise.
    1:12:09 But some of the reason for having the wiser individual around is having the elongated knowledge of what goes on in cycles and what goes on in periods.
    1:12:11 And we’ve seen this before, is helpful.
    1:12:17 Sometimes it’s a hindrance, but sometimes it’s very helpful for context.
    1:12:35 And therefore, that’s what makes great organizations, I think, in our view, is that you have the combination of the tenacity and passion to make investments and be successful,
    1:12:53 tempered by the knowledge and skills of past and what’s gone wrong to be able to bring together risk management and drive to succeed.
    1:13:07 I’m curious, like, how would you pass that on to somebody in your organization or me if you were to sort of hear the things I look for or don’t look for?
    1:13:14 You know, I would say, in general, we don’t do training, quote, unquote.
    1:13:20 But every day, every single person in this organization is learning.
    1:13:24 And it’s a learned by osmosis process.
    1:13:29 We have open plan in the place, including myself, never had an office.
    1:13:33 And people talk to one another.
    1:13:36 And it’s very interactive.
    1:13:43 And therefore, while I started off by saying we don’t train anybody, we train them every single day.
    1:13:46 And it’s just different than sending people to school.
    1:13:48 Do you do, like, postmortems after an investment?
    1:13:49 And what’s the key?
    1:13:51 Oh, yeah, especially the bad ones.
    1:13:53 What goes into those?
    1:13:54 Like, walk me through that.
    1:13:55 Take me behind the scenes.
    1:14:04 We try to look at, look, the successful ones, you can usually identify and know what happened.
    1:14:10 The unsuccessful ones are harder to identify what happened.
    1:14:15 But often there are reasons why.
    1:14:17 And it either comes down to execution.
    1:14:20 You didn’t execute properly.
    1:14:25 You had, you mistimed the market.
    1:14:30 Or you just made a bad, bad, flawed investment decision.
    1:14:32 And those are the worst.
    1:14:33 You mistimed the market.
    1:14:35 Nah, you know, it’s okay.
    1:14:42 But making flawed investment decisions is really bad.
    1:14:46 Is that where you’ve got the business strength wrong?
    1:14:48 The competitive dynamics wrong?
    1:14:49 You don’t understand?
    1:14:59 I just, sometimes it’s, we’re, sometimes we’re pushing out into areas which are adjunct to what we do and we probably shouldn’t have.
    1:15:00 We really didn’t know what we were doing.
    1:15:03 Not often does it happen, but once in a while.
    1:15:13 How much of your investment decision, you focus on the downside, but how much of it is like we’re modeling it the next five years and then we’re tracking to that model?
    1:15:22 The only thing I tell you about a model that’s produced in an investment committee is it will never be exactly what happens.
    1:15:34 But I’d say if you get the, we’re trying to get the trends right, is really what it is, is in investing, it’s can you get the trend right?
    1:15:46 And I would say most of our investing is we’re trying to get the price right for value and therefore often we’re buying at a discount to what we think is the value of something.
    1:15:53 And therefore, that’s an important thing to note.
    1:15:56 How do you think about the geopolitical risk?
    1:16:08 We invest in backbone infrastructure largely and even our private equity businesses are backbone infrastructure type businesses.
    1:16:23 Therefore, what’s important for us is to go to good countries with good people that you can operate with the standards we operate with and that those countries respect rule of law and will over time be good places to invest.
    1:16:26 We don’t really sell over borders.
    1:16:40 So, in the United States, where we are, we own data centers and telecom towers and real estate and industrial facilities and all of the things that we own in the U.S.
    1:16:42 and we make batteries and we, etc.
    1:16:46 All of those are consumed by individuals or companies in the United States.
    1:16:47 They’re not shipped.
    1:16:49 We make power.
    1:16:51 It’s used within state.
    1:16:58 Politics don’t really matter to us.
    1:16:59 You know, they do in the margin.
    1:17:06 But on balance, as long as you invest in a good country, you’re going to be fine.
    1:17:09 And by good, I’m assuming you mean stable, rule of law.
    1:17:11 How do you think you’re good?
    1:17:16 Good means for us it has to be large enough to be able to invest.
    1:17:19 Like we can’t have small countries just not because they’re not good.
    1:17:20 They’re not a good place to invest.
    1:17:21 It’s just not meaningful to us.
    1:17:36 When you have a trillion dollars things, the benefit or the drawback is that you can’t go to a little country.
    1:17:39 Like we just, we can’t invest a hundred million dollars.
    1:17:40 It’s not relevant to us.
    1:17:43 So we need large places.
    1:17:50 We’d like them to have, we need to operate with the standards that we operate globally with.
    1:17:55 We need to be, we’d like to have large GDP.
    1:17:56 We’d like to have it growing.
    1:18:04 And we’d like to have a currency that’s relatively, it doesn’t have to grow better than everyone else.
    1:18:05 It just has to stay consistent.
    1:18:07 If it’s highly volatile, not good.
    1:18:10 If it goes down over the long periods of time, bad.
    1:18:17 So we’d, we’d rather pick countries with those, those factors.
    1:18:20 And, but it all comes down to price.
    1:18:28 Like some, some have all that and then you, you, you invest when you can.
    1:18:30 But, but for us, we have to have people on the ground.
    1:18:32 So we pick those countries very methodically.
    1:18:33 We put people on the ground.
    1:18:38 We invest from time to time, new investments when we find the opportunities.
    1:18:41 But we don’t randomly go to countries.
    1:18:43 Like this is not a random business.
    1:18:44 This is hard work.
    1:18:50 Therefore, we have to be in country, be able to action an opportunity when it comes.
    1:18:54 And therefore, if we’re not in a country and somebody calls us with an opportunity,
    1:18:57 we just say, sorry, we’re not set up to do that.
    1:18:58 Can’t, no can do.
    1:19:03 It seems like part of your secret sauce is not only doing that in advance, but also
    1:19:08 you seem to prove the model before you take outside investors into it.
    1:19:13 You know, like I would say we have a large amount of capital ourself.
    1:19:15 We’ve always invested ourself.
    1:19:19 We want to make mistakes with our own money first, not with others.
    1:19:24 Our reputation with our clients is the only thing we have.
    1:19:27 And, and that’s really important to us.
    1:19:30 And, and we try to incrementally grow to prices.
    1:19:35 For example, we, we have a massive platform in the United States.
    1:19:37 So we started insurance in the United States.
    1:19:43 Now we’re going to the UK to do the same thing we did in the United States.
    1:19:47 And we just got licensed to do that.
    1:19:52 But it’s, um, we now have all the experience we have from the United States.
    1:19:55 We probably couldn’t have started there.
    1:19:56 Right.
    1:19:59 Because we just didn’t have the same presence there as we had here.
    1:20:05 And we always end these interviews with the same question, which is, what is success for you?
    1:20:16 Brookfield, uh, is one of the great investment, uh, management groups in the world today.
    1:20:31 And 20 years from today, success is that it is, um, bigger, broader, um, more relevant to clients, uh, and continues to do exactly what it does today for everybody.
    1:20:35 And earn, earn reasonable returns with, with downside risk protected.
    1:20:41 And if we can do that, we’ll have felt success, uh, of all of this.
    1:20:50 Thanks for listening and learning with us.
    1:20:58 The Farnham Street blog is where you can learn more about my new book, clear thinking, turning ordinary moments into extraordinary results.
    1:21:07 It’s a transformative guide that hands you the tools to master your fate, sharpen your decision-making and set yourself up for unparalleled success.
    1:21:12 Learn more at fs.blog slash clear until next time.

    Brookfield CEO Bruce Flatt reveals the investment philosophy behind building one of the world’s largest alternative asset managers with over a trillion dollars under management. 

    At the core of Brookfield’s strategy is a disciplined focus on downside protection that has delivered 19% annualized returns over 30 years. Flatt identifies three major trends driving their investments: digitalization (including AI infrastructure), global energy transition, and reindustrialization as supply chains shift. The conversation explores Brookfield’s approach to risk management, their expansion into insurance, and their meritocratic culture. When Shane presses for clarity on Brookfield’s complex corporate structure, Flatt provides rare insights into how the organization’s design creates both operational flexibility and investment opportunities. 

    What separates Brookfield from competitors? Patient capital: the discipline to wait for extraordinary opportunities and the financial strength to act when others can’t. 

    If you want to understand how the smartest capital allocators think and what it takes to build something enduring, this episode is essential listening. 

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    The opinions shared on this podcast belong solely to those expressing them. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the securities discussed. This podcast is intended to provide general information only and should not be considered financial advice. 

    (00:02:56) Changes in Investing Over the Past 25 Years

    (00:04:51) How Private Enterprise Has Built Our Tech Infrastructure

    (00:07:08) Implications and Opportunities of Passive Investing

    (00:09:08) Advantages of Private Companies

    (00:12:36) Three Investment Themes

    (00:15:11) Winners in Digitalization

    (00:16:45) Application of Artificial Intelligence in Businesses

    (00:21:44) Transition to Low-Carbon Energy

    (00:25:24) Future of Data Centers

    (00:27:32) De-globalization of Industry

    (00:29:59) Implications of Manufacturing Repatriation

    (00:31:11) Long-term Prospects for America

    (00:36:20) Approach to Risk and Debt

    (00:37:48) Impact of Interest Rates

    (00:40:47) Managing Market Dislocations

    (00:42:30) Long-term Investing Strategy

    (00:45:06) History and Future of Brookfield

    (00:47:55) Exploration of Private Markets and Insurance

    (00:48:48) Investment Decision Process

    (00:55:18) Understanding Brookfield’s Structure

    (00:59:40) Positioning of Brookfield’s Businesses

    (01:00:21) Talent and People Management at Brookfield

    (01:02:58) Focus on Downside Protection

    (01:05:03) Accountability in Investment Decisions

    (01:06:32) Understanding Investment Cycles

    (01:08:14) Learning and Training in the Organization

    (01:09:06) Postmortem Analysis of Investments

    (01:11:14) Consideration of Geopolitical Risks

    Newsletter – The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at fs.blog/newsletter

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  • #220 Outliers: James Dyson — Against the Odds

    AI transcript
    0:00:06 What I’ve learned from running is that the time to push hard is when you’re hurting like crazy and you want to give up.
    0:00:09 Success is often just around the corner.
    0:00:16 That is an excerpt from James Dyson’s autobiography, Against the Odds, the book and story we’re going to talk about today.
    0:00:35 Welcome to the Knowledge Project Podcast. I’m your host, Shane Parrish.
    0:00:42 This podcast helps you master the best of what other people have already figured out.
    0:00:48 If you want to take your learning to the next level, consider joining our membership program at fs.blog.com.
    0:00:56 As a member, you’ll get early access to episodes, no ads, including this, exclusive content, hand-edited transcripts,
    0:01:01 access to the repository, which has highlights from all my favorite books,
    0:01:04 including Dyson’s autobiography, which we used to make this episode.
    0:01:07 Check out the link in the show notes for more.
    0:01:12 Behind every revolutionary product lies a moment of everyday frustration.
    0:01:18 For James Dyson, it was watching his vacuum cleaner lose suction as its bag filled with dust,
    0:01:22 a problem millions around the world simply accepted as inevitable.
    0:01:25 What happened next defies conventional wisdom.
    0:01:34 Five years, 5,126 failed prototypes, near financial ruin, and a kitchen floor covered in cardboard and masking tape.
    0:01:41 Today, we explore how a self-described misfit transformed frustration into a multi-billion dollar empire
    0:01:43 by embracing an uncomfortable truth.
    0:01:48 Failure isn’t just a step on the path to success, it is the path itself.
    0:01:54 We’ll unpack Dyson’s philosophy, why experts are often the biggest obstacles to innovation,
    0:01:58 how losing control of his first company shaped his future business decisions,
    0:02:02 the standard of excellence, and why action leads to progress.
    0:02:07 Whether you’re building a business, solving complex problems, or simply trying to navigate uncertainty,
    0:02:15 Dyson’s journey offers powerful insights on turning disadvantages into advantages and building something truly original.
    0:02:20 And make sure you stick around at the end for my lessons you can take away from Dyson and apply to your own life.
    0:02:23 And check out our website for key takeaways from the episode.
    0:02:26 It’s time to listen and learn.
    0:02:31 This podcast is for entertainment and informational purposes only.
    0:02:40 Picture this, a cold October night in 1978 in a modest English kitchen.
    0:02:47 A 31-year-old man kneels amid scraps of cardboard masking tape and the gutted carcass of a vacuum cleaner,
    0:02:50 like the aftermath of a kindergarten project gone rogue.
    0:02:53 Upstairs, his wife and three young children sleep,
    0:02:57 unaware their home has become ground zero for what, after 15 years,
    0:03:03 5,126 prototypes will become a multi-billion dollar revolution.
    0:03:07 The man, James Dyson, has just committed a household crime.
    0:03:12 He’s torn the bag off the family’s reconditioned Hoover Jr. vacuum cleaner.
    0:03:15 This isn’t a tantrum, although Dyson was certainly angry.
    0:03:22 For months, he quietly simmered over a frustration so mundane that most accepted it as inevitable.
    0:03:25 Vacuum cleaners lose suction as their bags fill.
    0:03:27 Most people simply buy new bags.
    0:03:30 James Dyson isn’t most people.
    0:03:32 He dismantles the entire machine.
    0:03:39 Now armed with cardboard tape and an insight borrowed from an industrial sawmill’s dust extraction system,
    0:03:45 he’s about to cobble together something vacuum manufacturers worldwide had insisted was impossible.
    0:03:48 A vacuum cleaner that doesn’t lose suction.
    0:03:51 A vacuum cleaner without a bag.
    0:03:53 And while that might seem common today,
    0:03:58 for a while, James Dyson was the only person in the world with a bagless vacuum cleaner.
    0:04:03 He couldn’t have known then that his journey of kitchen floor experiments would lead to years of struggle,
    0:04:05 thousands of failed prototypes,
    0:04:06 near financial ruin,
    0:04:08 countless people saying no,
    0:04:09 lawsuits,
    0:04:14 and it would ultimately culminate in the transformation of an entire industry.
    0:04:16 When Dyson showed people his prototype,
    0:04:19 industry experts quickly offered their verdict.
    0:04:20 If a better vacuum were possible,
    0:04:24 Hoover or Electrolux would have invented it already.
    0:04:25 This dismissive logic,
    0:04:27 that if something were possible,
    0:04:29 industry giants would have already done it,
    0:04:33 is the comfortable assumption incumbents have relied on throughout history,
    0:04:37 right until an outsider proves them catastrophically wrong.
    0:04:41 It’s the same reasoning that led to Western Union to dismiss the telephone,
    0:04:44 or IBM to scoff at personal computers,
    0:04:47 or Kodak to overlook the digital camera.
    0:04:48 For Dyson,
    0:04:50 their skepticism became fuel.
    0:04:54 The certainty he was onto something precisely because people said he wasn’t.
    0:04:57 This is the story of James Dyson,
    0:04:59 a man who turned dust into possibility,
    0:05:01 failure into discovery,
    0:05:03 and frustration into revolution.
    0:05:12 That kitchen floor epiphany in 1978 was the culmination of a lifetime of swimming against the current.
    0:05:16 But to understand how James Dyson came to be kneeling there,
    0:05:18 surrounded by cardboard and tape,
    0:05:21 we need to go back three decades to where his story begins.
    0:05:27 James was born in a seaside town of Cromer, Norfolk on May 2nd, 1947,
    0:05:30 the third child to Alec and Mary Dyson.
    0:05:35 Alec was a classics teacher, respectable, but far from wealthy.
    0:05:38 The family lived in comfortable middle-class circumstances,
    0:05:41 the kind that provided security without excess.
    0:05:44 But that security would prove fragile.
    0:05:47 When James was just nine years old, tragedy struck.
    0:05:49 His father died of cancer,
    0:05:54 leaving behind a widow and three children suddenly facing precarious financial circumstances.
    0:05:57 This moment would have derailed many families,
    0:06:00 closing doors of opportunity and narrowing horizons.
    0:06:04 For young James, though, it created the most powerful of motivational forces,
    0:06:09 the sense of being an underdog that would stay with him throughout his entire life.
    0:06:11 His death, he would later reflect,
    0:06:14 put me at a great disadvantage compared to the other boys.
    0:06:16 It made me feel like an underdog,
    0:06:19 someone who was always going to have things taken away from him.
    0:06:25 Dyson’s reflections on his father’s death reveal something more nuanced than simply hardship.
    0:06:26 As Dyson said,
    0:06:40 This tension between vulnerability and a sense of being different would become a creative engine for Dyson throughout his life.
    0:06:45 Dyson also found himself constantly tested in ways that would forge his competitive spirit.
    0:06:46 He recalled,
    0:06:52 Everyone in the house, my mother, my brother, my sister, and all the other children were older than I was.
    0:06:55 So when we played games like Bulldog and Lurkey,
    0:06:59 I was always up against people who were bigger and stronger than I was.
    0:07:02 Rather than being crushed by this constant disadvantage,
    0:07:08 young James developed a tenacity that would serve him well in later battles against industrial giants.
    0:07:14 It raised my standards in that I was not prepared to lose everything all the time just because I was the youngest
    0:07:19 and taught me that I could take on something much bigger than I was and win.
    0:07:23 That phrase, raise my standards, sticks out to me here.
    0:07:27 One of the greatest benefits of reading biographies and studying the best in any field
    0:07:30 is that you discover what your standards could be.
    0:07:36 We start life with whatever luck hands us, our parents, our family, our school, our friends.
    0:07:38 Their standards become our standards over time.
    0:07:43 But if life doesn’t luckily put us into an environment with high standards,
    0:07:46 we’ve got to set our own as high as possible.
    0:07:49 And there’s no better way than learning from outliers like Dyson,
    0:07:53 people who refuse to settle to lift our own trajectory.
    0:07:55 Now let’s go back to his story.
    0:08:00 Dyson makes an unexpected but telling connection between these childhood contests
    0:08:02 and his future business conflicts.
    0:08:06 Combined with the loss of my father, this made me very competitive.
    0:08:10 And in the wider picture, there is really not so great a difference between
    0:08:13 a rampaging industrial giant trying to sue you at a business
    0:08:18 and a hulking great 15-year-old trying to knock you off a rock or duck you in the sea.
    0:08:22 The headmaster of Gresham School, where James boarded,
    0:08:25 saw something in the fatherless boy worth investing in.
    0:08:30 He offered James and his brothers a generous bursary to continue their education
    0:08:33 and bored at the school despite their changed financial circumstances,
    0:08:35 allowing their mother to go out and work.
    0:08:39 Years later, as one of the country’s wealthiest individuals,
    0:08:44 Dyson would remember this critical intervention pouring millions into educational philanthropy
    0:08:49 with the knowledge that one opportunity at the right moment can change everything
    0:08:52 for not only a person but an entire family.
    0:08:56 At Gresham’s, James found a quiet obsession, cross-country running.
    0:09:03 While most boys chased team sports or short sprints, he thrived in the solitary grind of distance.
    0:09:08 He trained relentlessly, rising early or running late on Norfolk’s sand dunes.
    0:09:10 You would think he loved running.
    0:09:11 You’d be wrong.
    0:09:13 It wasn’t joy that drove him.
    0:09:17 The act of running itself was not something I enjoyed, he admits.
    0:09:21 The best you could say for it was that it was lonely and painful.
    0:09:24 But as I started to win by greater and greater margins,
    0:09:28 I did it more and more because I knew the reason for my success
    0:09:33 was that out on the sand dunes, I was doing something no one else was doing.
    0:09:35 Let’s stop here for a moment.
    0:09:36 Two things stand out.
    0:09:43 First, while most avoid discomfort, Dyson leans into it, a rare trait that sets him apart.
    0:09:46 Second, being different isn’t just an advantage.
    0:09:47 It’s necessary.
    0:09:49 Joseph Tussman put it well.
    0:09:54 If you do what everyone else is doing, you’re going to get the same results everybody else gets.
    0:09:57 But difference for its own sake isn’t enough.
    0:09:59 It has to be the right kind, the kind that wins.
    0:10:01 That’s advantageous divergence.
    0:10:08 Both of these qualities, the ability to embrace discomfort and the ability to be different
    0:10:11 and do something different, fuel his future triumphs.
    0:10:12 Now back to his story.
    0:10:15 Dyson ran alone on those dunes, knowing he stood apart.
    0:10:18 Going along with the crowd didn’t interest him.
    0:10:21 In fact, it likely would have dulled his drive.
    0:10:25 He thrived knowing he’d forged his own course, a pattern that would define his career.
    0:10:30 Those solitary runs weren’t just physical, they were mental prep for innovation’s marathon.
    0:10:36 In business, the ability to take pain often makes the difference between success and failure.
    0:10:39 Around him, post-war Britain hummed with possibility.
    0:10:42 Britain still sat comfortably on top of the pile.
    0:10:45 At least, that’s how it felt to us then, he recalls.
    0:10:48 Britain’s national mood was one of possibility and achievement.
    0:10:51 As Dyson put it, there was a coronation.
    0:10:53 We conquered Everest.
    0:10:57 We regained the ashes and beat all comers in test matches.
    0:10:59 We broke the four-minute mile.
    0:11:03 There was the festival of Britain and the Morris miners being exported all over the world.
    0:11:08 The message to a child seemed to be that Britain was the center of the universe
    0:11:12 and that you as an individual could conquer the world.
    0:11:18 This subtle environmental influence would later inform Dyson’s willingness to challenge global industrial powers
    0:11:23 and make strong statements about the state of Britain’s entrepreneurial and manufacturing spirit,
    0:11:24 which we’ll get to later.
    0:11:30 There’s over 500,000 small businesses in BC and no two are alike.
    0:11:31 I’m a carpenter.
    0:11:32 I’m a graphic designer.
    0:11:34 I sell dog socks online.
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    0:11:41 It’s customizable based on your unique needs.
    0:11:45 So whether you manage rental properties or paint pet portraits,
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    0:11:59 When the time came to choose a path after Gresham’s school,
    0:12:01 Dyson made a decision that seemed to defy logic.
    0:12:06 This mathematically talented student chose art over engineering.
    0:12:13 In 1965, he enrolled at the Byam Shaw School of Art in London during what was typically a post-high school gap year,
    0:12:19 seemingly shunning the technical fields where his analytical mind might have shined naturally.
    0:12:25 This unconventional choice was partly driven by Dyson’s rejection of artificial divisions in education,
    0:12:28 something that would later inform his approach to hiring and talent.
    0:12:34 It’s the roaring inequity of our system that children face such decisions at a feckless age,
    0:12:35 he’d fumed.
    0:12:40 I went for humanities because I couldn’t see the point in all of those formula you got in science,
    0:12:46 and I have spent the rest of my life not only attempting to turn the woolly-headed artist who left Gresham’s into a scientist,
    0:12:51 but cursing the wrongheadedness of a system that forces students into such choices.
    0:12:59 Dyson’s critique extended beyond the humanities sciences divide to what he saw as the deadening of creativity in the technical subjects,
    0:13:05 commenting that in woodworking class, if you didn’t make the matchbox holder exactly as the teacher instructed,
    0:13:06 you’d get a clip around the ear.
    0:13:13 Fortunately, his instructors at the Byam Shaw School, particularly the painter Maurice de Sossmanes,
    0:13:14 recognized something unique in Dyson,
    0:13:20 an unusual blend of seeing both form and function, beauty and utility.
    0:13:25 His teacher became a critical influence, opening Dyson’s eyes to design as a potential career
    0:13:29 and encouraging him to consider the Royal College of Art as the next step.
    0:13:31 Even before fully embracing engineering,
    0:13:37 Dyson was already developing the mindset that would define his approach to innovation.
    0:13:40 A willingness to challenge conventions and pursue his own vision.
    0:13:46 A telling incident occurred when he designed programs for a school production of Sheridan’s The Critic.
    0:13:52 Rather than accepting the standard format for programs always printed at the local press on folded A4 sheets
    0:13:54 and were extremely dull and nasty,
    0:13:58 Dyson chose to create scrolls on aged vellum effect paper.
    0:14:01 His housemaster’s reaction was swift and harsh.
    0:14:04 This is absolutely ridiculous.
    0:14:09 How dare you insult the great tradition of drama at the school with this, this folly?
    0:14:13 When Dyson defended his choice as rather suitable and in the flavor of the period,
    0:14:14 the response was telling,
    0:14:17 programs Dyson should be flat.
    0:14:22 This early clash between innovation and convention left a lasting impression.
    0:14:23 Dyson says,
    0:14:29 I was doing what I felt to be logical, current, original, unusual, and it was in the spirit of the production.
    0:14:36 And he was this bloody mass teacher telling me that I was wrong for no better reason than that the program should be flat.
    0:14:51 It was an early artistic rebuff by a bean counter and in the years since then I have developed a little more resistance to the reactionaries who put down whatever is new and unfamiliar.
    0:14:59 In 1966, Dyson advanced to the Royal College of Art, initially studying furniture and interior design, as per his teacher’s suggestion.
    0:15:07 Soon, his interest gravitated towards industrial engineering, a shift that might have been blocked in a more rigid academic environment.
    0:15:15 Fortunately, his professor at the time, Sir Hugh Kasson, recognized Dyson’s talents and interests defied conventional categorization,
    0:15:18 giving him the freedom to explore an unconventional path.
    0:15:23 Through it all, Dyson reinforced a pivotal lesson that would shape his entrepreneurial journey.
    0:15:28 Real innovation requires the courage to trust your instincts, even when others dismiss you as foolish.
    0:15:34 At the RCA, two mentors emerged that would profoundly shape Dyson’s approach to innovation.
    0:15:42 The first was Anthony Hunt, a structural engineer and visiting tutor who encouraged Dyson’s emerging fascination with engineering principles.
    0:15:50 The second, and more consequential, was Jeremy Fry, a successful British inventor and entrepreneur who recognized in Dyson a kindred spirit.
    0:15:57 Fry offered Dyson real-world engineering work while still a student, tapping into what he called Dyson’s desire for making things.
    0:16:02 For a young man who had lost his father, this vote of confidence from an established figure came at a critical moment.
    0:16:09 It validated Dyson’s unconventional approach and provided practical experience that formal education alone couldn’t deliver.
    0:16:13 So began my association with Jeremy Fry, Dyson later recalled.
    0:16:23 A mentor as important to me as any of the engineering heroes of the past, with the great advantage of being alive and keen to nurture such talents as I possessed.
    0:16:28 What Dyson found most liberating about Fry’s approach was his disdain for conventional expertise.
    0:16:34 He had no regard for experts from other fields, always teaching himself whatever he needed to know as he went along.
    0:16:42 And he was an engineer interested in building things that derived not only excellence from their design, but elegance as well.
    0:16:53 Though initially intimidated by Fry’s status as a millionaire industrialist, Dyson was quickly won over by his self-confidence and willingness to take chances upon unproven talent.
    0:16:55 Here was a man who was not interested in experts.
    0:16:59 He meets me, he thinks to himself, here’s a bright kid, let’s employ him.
    0:17:00 And he does.
    0:17:03 He risks little with the possibility of gaining much.
    0:17:07 This approach would later influence Dyson’s own hiring practices.
    0:17:10 It is exactly what I now do at Dyson Appliances.
    0:17:18 Take on unformed graduates to throw youthful ideas around until they have given all they can and are ready to move on to new things.
    0:17:25 Fry’s method of problem solving contrasted sharply with the academic approach Dyson had encountered at school and university.
    0:17:30 He did not, when an idea came to him, sit down and process it through pages and pages of calculation.
    0:17:33 He didn’t argue through it with anyone.
    0:17:34 He just went out and built it.
    0:17:38 This hands-on, trial-and-error approach was liberating for the young designer.
    0:17:43 When Dyson would approach Fry with an idea, the response was simply, you know where the workshop is, go and do it.
    0:17:48 If Dyson protested about needing specialized knowledge or equipment, Fry had a direct solution.
    0:17:50 Well then, go get a welder and weld it.
    0:17:52 Dyson found this approach revolutionary.
    0:17:56 Now, this was not a modus operandi that I had encountered before.
    0:17:59 College had taught me to revere experts and expertise.
    0:18:02 Fry ridiculed all of that.
    0:18:07 As far as he was concerned, with enthusiasm and intelligence, anything was possible.
    0:18:10 It’s worth pausing here for a second.
    0:18:16 This just-go-build-it attitude that Fry instilled in him reminds me of what Richard Hamming,
    0:18:20 this brilliant mathematician who worked at Bell Labs during his golden era, used to talk about.
    0:18:24 Hamming gave this now-famous lecture called You and Your Research,
    0:18:29 where he essentially challenged how most of us get trapped in endless preparation mode.
    0:18:33 We’re always getting ready to do the thing instead of just doing the thing.
    0:18:36 We’re always talking about doing the thing instead of doing the thing.
    0:18:40 What’s striking about both Hamming and what Dyson learned from Fry
    0:18:45 is this refreshing lack of reverence for credentials and formal expertise.
    0:18:48 Hamming described watching colleagues who would say,
    0:18:52 well, I need to go read one more paper, or I need to understand this concept better before I start.
    0:18:57 Meanwhile, the people who make breakthroughs just jumped in and started building.
    0:18:59 They’d figure it out along the way.
    0:19:01 Hamming’s colleague, John Tukey, was like that.
    0:19:03 He didn’t theorize endlessly.
    0:19:04 He just went out and built it.
    0:19:08 And that’s exactly what Fry was pushing Dyson to do when he’d say,
    0:19:12 you know where the workshop is, or, well then, get a welder and weld it.
    0:19:17 This mindset appears consistently across different fields and eras.
    0:19:20 Hamming had this great line that I think about all the time.
    0:19:25 The particular thing you do is luck, but that you do something is not.
    0:19:28 And that perfectly applies to Dyson.
    0:19:32 Was it luck that he specifically invented a bagless vacuum cleaner?
    0:19:33 Maybe.
    0:19:36 But was it luck that he ended up building something significant?
    0:19:37 Not at all.
    0:19:41 Once you adopt this mindset of building rather than just thinking about building,
    0:19:44 creating rather than just planning to create,
    0:19:48 it becomes almost inevitable that you’ll eventually create something meaningful.
    0:19:54 The vacuum was just what happened to be in front of him when all of these lessons clicked in place.
    0:19:59 For his final year project, Dyson abandoned the expected path of interior design students
    0:20:04 and instead collaborated with Fry to design a high-speed flat-bottom boat called the Sea Truck.
    0:20:09 Rather than submitting theoretical drawings, Dyson built a working prototype,
    0:20:13 something that could be tested, refined, and ultimately commercialized.
    0:20:18 This leap from theory to practice marked Dyson’s entrance into the world of invention.
    0:20:21 He had no prior boat building or welding experience.
    0:20:24 He simply learned by doing, often testing prototypes on weekends.
    0:20:30 It was a baptism by fire into the world of engineering, and it suited his temperament perfectly.
    0:20:33 The Sea Truck proved commercially viable.
    0:20:35 Fry’s company manufactured it.
    0:20:38 And they were soon selling approximately 200 units annually.
    0:20:42 For a student project to become a profitable product was remarkable,
    0:20:46 and it taught Dyson early lessons about the relationship between design,
    0:20:51 manufacturing, and commerce that many inventors, let alone students, never learned.
    0:20:55 After graduation, Dyson became the sole salesperson for the Sea Truck,
    0:20:59 developing unique insights that would serve him well in his later business ventures.
    0:21:04 Selling back then was really pretty easy because I believed in what I was trying to push.
    0:21:09 As with selling anything, it was about seeing how the boat would fit into the life of the customer,
    0:21:12 not about mouthing off about how great it was.
    0:21:17 This customer-centric approach would become a cornerstone of Dyson’s business philosophy.
    0:21:20 You find out what your man wants, and when he comes to you,
    0:21:23 he is buying it as soon as he starts talking, before you even start to sell.
    0:21:27 It is not about the right adjectives or shouting your mouth off.
    0:21:29 It’s about discovering a need and satisfying it.
    0:21:33 Not creating a need, by the way, as many of your cynical marketing men would have it.
    0:21:38 When selecting distributors for the Sea Truck, Dyson made an unconventional choice.
    0:21:41 Without exception, the best agents were the ones who,
    0:21:45 quite irrespective of their business or financial sense,
    0:21:48 saw the boat for what it was and loved it for it.
    0:21:53 While the temptation and board pressure was to hire established boat distributors
    0:21:56 who knew the market and would order vast numbers,
    0:21:59 I was determined to choose people who were mad keen on it.
    0:22:01 And his reasoning was sound.
    0:22:05 They were the only ones who would be able to overcome all the obstacles
    0:22:10 and difficulties of selling an entirely new concept and making a real business of it.
    0:22:15 The Sea Truck project also taught Dyson hard lessons about the dangers of trying to be
    0:22:17 all things to all customers.
    0:22:22 When approached by driving companies or oil corporations or the British military,
    0:22:26 Dyson would suggest that the Sea Truck could be modified to meet their specific requirements.
    0:22:30 I convinced not a single one of them, he admitted.
    0:22:31 People do not want all purpose.
    0:22:34 They want high-tech specificity.
    0:22:39 This insight would later influence his approach to marketing the dual cyclone vacuum cleaner,
    0:22:43 where he focused specifically on its superiority as a vacuum,
    0:22:46 rather than diluting the message with all the other features.
    0:22:53 One of the most illuminating incidents from the Sea Truck era came during a trip to Egypt in 1973.
    0:22:58 Dyson arrived in Cairo expecting that the Egyptians wanted modifications to the boat,
    0:23:01 such as armoring it like all the other militaries had requested.
    0:23:03 The reality surprised him.
    0:23:07 Oh, no, that is the last thing we want, he was told by the Egyptians.
    0:23:10 We sent one of our men out in a Sea Truck and tried to shoot him.
    0:23:12 We shot at him for hours and we couldn’t make a mark.
    0:23:15 The boat rides so low in the water that it cannot be hit.
    0:23:19 This contrasted sharply with the approach taken by the British Navy,
    0:23:23 which according to Dyson had spent two years trying to make the Sea Truck suit their needs.
    0:23:29 By the time they had spent an absolute fortune on armor plating and special diesel engines to power,
    0:23:35 they had turned my lovely launch craft into an iron behemoth that couldn’t manage more than about 10 miles an hour.
    0:23:39 Dyson saw in this a cultural difference between problem solving.
    0:23:44 The trial and error approach of the Egyptians, on the other hand, had been pure Edison.
    0:23:46 Rather than over-engineering the solution,
    0:23:51 they had tested the product in real-world conditions immediately and discovered an inherent advantage.
    0:23:57 As Dyson’s involvement with the Sea Truck began to wane, he observed another critical principle of innovation.
    0:24:00 But when difficulties arose, they just shelved the whole thing,
    0:24:05 something that always seemed to happen when the original designer does not stay on his project.
    0:24:08 This self-belief is not there to press on through the hard times.
    0:24:14 This insight would later fuel Dyson’s determination to maintain control over his inventions,
    0:24:19 seeing them through from concept to market despite setbacks and opposition.
    0:24:25 Most significantly, Dyson was developing a philosophy about innovation that would guide him throughout his career.
    0:24:31 He embraced the willingness to question basic assumptions and pursue solutions that established experts dismiss.
    0:24:36 This mindset would eventually lead him to look at a sawmill cyclone dust extractor and wonder,
    0:24:40 could this replace the vacuum cleaner that everyone takes for granted?
    0:24:44 Well, the industry experts assumed that if a better vacuum cleaner were possible,
    0:24:47 manufacturers would have already made it by then.
    0:24:54 This self-awareness about his unconventional approach would become a defining characteristic of Dyson’s innovation philosophy.
    0:24:57 Looking back on his journey, he reflected,
    0:25:03 I have been a misfit throughout my professional life, and that seems to have worked to my advantage.
    0:25:10 Misfits are not born or made, they make themselves, and a stubborn, opinionated child desperate to be different and right
    0:25:15 encounters only smaller refractions of the problem he will always experience,
    0:25:18 and he carries the weight of that dislocation forever.
    0:25:28 This self-awareness that his misfit status was both a burden and a blessing explains Dyson’s resilience in the face of rejection and criticism.
    0:25:35 His early experiences taught him that being different, while often uncomfortable, could also be a source of great strength.
    0:25:41 As Dyson’s early career took shape, he was developing principles that would guide his future endeavors.
    0:25:45 One crucial insight came from a seemingly modest business venture.
    0:25:52 My only business venture until now had been selling cheap wine that a friend of mine was importing from Tarragona in southern Spain.
    0:25:59 Wine was beginning to catch on in Britain in the late 60s, and this unlabeled plonk had a certain cachet among the arty.
    0:26:05 From this experience, Dyson extracted a principle that would become central to his business philosophy.
    0:26:10 The only way to make real money is to offer the public something entirely new that has style as well as substance,
    0:26:13 and which they cannot get anywhere else.
    0:26:20 This commitment to creating something genuinely new, rather than merely improving on existing products,
    0:26:25 would drive Dyson to pursue innovations that others dismissed as impossible or unnecessary.
    0:26:29 I didn’t want to put the icing on other people’s creations, he declared.
    0:26:31 I wanted to make things.
    0:26:37 As the 1970s began, Dyson was poised to apply these lessons and principles to new challenges.
    0:26:42 He had experienced the thrill of bringing the sea truck from concept to market,
    0:26:46 absorbed Jeremy Fry’s unorthodox approach to problem solving,
    0:26:52 and begun developing his own philosophy about the intersection of art, design, and engineering.
    0:26:57 I discovered the confidence and the stupidity to start doing things differently, he reflected.
    0:27:04 A simple statement that captures the paradoxical mix of self-assurance and risk-taking that characterizes innovation.
    0:27:08 Armed with this confidence and the lessons learned from the sea truck project,
    0:27:13 Dyson was about to turn his attention into something far more mundane than high-speed boats,
    0:27:15 yet potentially more revolutionary.
    0:27:17 The humble wheelbarrow.
    0:27:26 The gardeners of England in the mid-1970s had no idea that they were inspiring a revolution.
    0:27:32 As they struggled with their conventional wheelbarrows fighting to keep the narrow wheels from sinking into the wet soil,
    0:27:38 James Dyson was watching with the calculating eye of someone who sees not what is, but what could be.
    0:27:41 For centuries, the wheelbarrow had remained essentially unchanged.
    0:27:45 A container perched precariously on a single narrow wheel,
    0:27:50 a design that made it perpetually unstable and virtually useless on soft ground.
    0:27:56 Most people accepted these limitations as inevitable, the unavoidable physics of a simple tool.
    0:28:01 But Dyson, fresh from his experience with the sea truck, saw these frustrations differently,
    0:28:07 not as immutable facts of life, but as a design problem waiting to be solved.
    0:28:10 The solution he developed was elegant in its simplicity.
    0:28:12 Replace the wheel with a ball.
    0:28:17 A sphere distributes weight across a wider surface area, preventing sinking.
    0:28:23 It also allows movement in any direction without having to lift and reposition the barrel.
    0:28:25 The idea seemed obvious in retrospect,
    0:28:29 raising the question that would become familiar throughout Dyson’s career.
    0:28:31 Why hadn’t nobody thought of this before?
    0:28:34 In 1974, he unveiled the ball barrel,
    0:28:39 a reinvention that replaced the traditional wheel with a large orange plastic sphere.
    0:28:44 The ball distributed weight more evenly and crucially wouldn’t sink into soft soil or mud.
    0:28:49 Its wider footprint provided stability that the conventional wheelbarrow couldn’t match.
    0:28:52 Dyson gave it bright colors and a modern form,
    0:28:56 turning a utilitarian tool into something with aesthetic appeal.
    0:29:01 The ball barrel wasn’t just different for difference sakes, it genuinely worked better.
    0:29:05 When featured on BBC’s Tomorrow World technology program,
    0:29:08 it introduced viewers to Dyson’s fundamental approach.
    0:29:10 Identify a common frustration.
    0:29:12 Question assumption.
    0:29:15 And engineer a solution from first principle.
    0:29:20 Within a year of launch, the company was selling 45,000 ball barrels annually.
    0:29:25 A remarkable success for a product category most people considered fully mature.
    0:29:29 But commercial success masked a looming disaster.
    0:29:35 In setting up the ball barrel company, Dyson had made what would prove to be a crucial error.
    0:29:38 In 1974, when I had wanted to do the ball barrel,
    0:29:41 my brother-in-law generously offered to part-fund it.
    0:29:46 I had rather stupidly assigned the patent of the ball barrel not to myself, but to the company,
    0:29:48 Dyson later confessed.
    0:29:52 This seemingly innocuous decision would prove catastrophic.
    0:29:59 To launch the ball barrel, Dyson and his partners borrowed £200,000, about $275,000,
    0:30:07 at a punishing 24% interest rate, a reflection of Britain’s troubled economy in the mid-1970s.
    0:30:12 As the business expanded, they needed more capital, which meant bringing in new investors.
    0:30:16 Each round of investment diluted Dyson’s personal ownership stake.
    0:30:20 The business grew to an annual turnover of £600,000.
    0:30:24 It captured more than half of the UK garden wheelbarrow market, Dyson recalled.
    0:30:26 But even so, we didn’t make any money.
    0:30:30 The ball barrel had become the most frustrating of business scenarios,
    0:30:34 a popular product that couldn’t turn into a profitable business.
    0:30:39 The situation deteriorated when a former employee defected to a competing American company
    0:30:42 that had previously discussed licensing the ball barrel.
    0:30:46 Soon, a knockoff version appeared in the US market with a brazen competitor
    0:30:50 even using photos of the original ball barrel in their marketing materials.
    0:30:54 It was corporate betrayal at its most flagrant.
    0:30:56 And the company’s board, against Dyson’s wishes,
    0:31:00 opted to pursue expensive legal action against the American imitator.
    0:31:06 This drained resources and created yet another financial crisis requiring additional investment,
    0:31:09 further diluting Dyson’s ownership stake,
    0:31:12 while shifting the company’s focus from improving their product.
    0:31:15 Meanwhile, Dyson’s interests were already shifting.
    0:31:18 What I really wanted to do was make the vacuum cleaner I had in mind
    0:31:21 rather than fight the plagiarist in Chicago,
    0:31:23 as the board was keen on doing, he explained.
    0:31:27 This divergence in priorities foreshadowed the coming rupture.
    0:31:34 In February of 1979, the other shareholders unceremoniously forced Dyson out of his own company.
    0:31:39 I couldn’t have been more surprised when my fellow shareholders booted me out, Dyson recalled.
    0:31:41 There was no apparent reason for this.
    0:31:47 He later discovered that the son of the other major shareholder had orchestrated the coup to take control of the business.
    0:31:50 The ejection was professionally devastating.
    0:31:53 I had lost five years of my work by not valuing my creation.
    0:31:58 I had failed to protect the one thing that was most valuable to me, Dyson reflected.
    0:32:03 If I had kept control, I could have done what I wanted to do and avoided a big interest bill.
    0:32:09 The final insult was that the company lawyer, the very person who might have protected Dyson’s interests,
    0:32:11 was the one who delivered the termination.
    0:32:17 I was now without a lawyer, I was clueless about compensation for loss of office, and my shares were worthless.
    0:32:24 This bitter experience taught Dyson several crucial lessons that would shape his future business decisions.
    0:32:29 First, he learned the paramount importance of maintaining control of his intellectual property.
    0:32:35 In his words, I learned very much the hard way that I should have held on to the Balbaro patent and licensed the company.
    0:32:39 In the event, I lost the license, the patent, and the company.
    0:32:47 Second, he developed a deep aversion to outside shareholders who could dictate company direction, or worse, push him out.
    0:32:53 From now on, though, I was determined not to let go of my own inventions, patents, and companies, he vowed.
    0:33:00 This commitment to maintaining ownership would become a defining characteristic of Dyson’s future business approach.
    0:33:03 He also gained hard-won insights about commercial strategy.
    0:33:18 In retrospect, the very idea of selling against a utility product was a mistake, Dyson concluded.
    0:33:22 The product was good, but the commercial proposition was a bad idea.
    0:33:27 This painful episode also reinforced Dyson’s developing philosophy about business itself
    0:33:32 that stood in stark contrast to the prevailing corporate culture of the 1970s in Britain.
    0:33:36 In his view, something fundamental had changed in how companies were being run.
    0:33:40 Car companies used to be run by people who loved cars, he observed.
    0:33:45 They knew how to make the cars themselves, and they were always trying to make them better.
    0:33:48 Retail companies were run by people who knew how to sell.
    0:33:53 Now they’re run by accountants and marketing people who don’t understand the product or the customer.
    0:33:58 This shift from product-centered to finance-centered management troubled Dyson deeply.
    0:34:03 He saw it as the root cause of declining British manufacturing and innovation.
    0:34:06 Engineering and design is not about that.
    0:34:10 It is a long-term way of regenerating a company, and by extension, a country.
    0:34:17 If the city, fat cats, and their banks, and the monsters, the Thatcher revolution made into prime movers,
    0:34:21 demand an instant return, we just sell our products better.
    0:34:22 We don’t improve them.
    0:34:30 As he faced an uncertain future in 1979, Dyson had no idea that his next project would not only transform his fortunes,
    0:34:32 but an entire industry.
    0:34:36 And it would begin with the most ordinary of household irritations.
    0:34:39 A vacuum cleaner that kept losing suction.
    0:34:47 Before we get to Dyson’s next project, we need to travel back in time a bit to understand the history of the vacuum cleaner.
    0:34:48 The year is 1901.
    0:34:56 Queen Victoria’s reign is coming to an end, and in a London office, an engineer named Hubert Sissel Booth is conducting a peculiar experiment.
    0:35:03 He’s on his hands and knees pressing his handkerchief against the carpet and sucking through it with all of his might.
    0:35:07 After a moment, he examines the cloth and finds it impregnated with dust.
    0:35:13 This impromptu experiment conducted after witnessing a failed American cleaning demonstration confirmed his theory.
    0:35:17 Suction, not blowing, was the key to effective cleaning.
    0:35:21 Booth would go on to create the first powerful vacuum cleaner,
    0:35:27 a massive horse-drawn contraption that parked outside of homes with long hoses that were fed into windows and doors.
    0:35:33 It was a sensation among London’s elite, who threw parties to show off this marvelous new cleaning method.
    0:35:39 Even King Edward VII was impressed, ordering machines for Buckingham Palace and Windsor Castle,
    0:35:43 making the British monarchy the first royal owners of vacuum cleaners.
    0:35:47 But the true commercialization of the vacuum would happen across the Atlantic.
    0:35:53 In 1908, a struggling Ohio leather and saddle maker named W.H. Boss Hoover,
    0:35:57 looking to diversify as automobiles replace horses,
    0:36:03 purchased the rights to an electric carpet sweeper invented by an asthmatic janitor,
    0:36:04 James Murray Sprinkler.
    0:36:11 This device, essentially an electric fan that sucked dust into a pillowcase attached to a broomstick,
    0:36:14 would become the prototype for virtually all vacuums to follow.
    0:36:20 For the next seven decades or so, vacuum cleaners would change remarkably little in their fundamental design.
    0:36:22 Yes, there were some improvements.
    0:36:26 The Electrolux introduced the cylinder models in 1913,
    0:36:30 and in 1936, the Hoover Jr. added rotating brushes.
    0:36:34 But the central technology remained essentially unchanged,
    0:36:39 a motor-driven fan sucking air and dust through a cloth paper bag that would filter out the dirt.
    0:36:42 And this is where James Dyson enters,
    0:36:47 because what nobody seemed to notice or perhaps care about was a fundamental flaw in the design.
    0:36:49 The moment you started using these vacuums,
    0:36:54 they began to lose suction as the pores in the bags clogged with fine dust particles.
    0:36:59 Dyson was experiencing the suction issue with his own Hoover Jr.
    0:37:04 when he recalled a pivotal moment in the Balbaro manufacturing process that he was working on.
    0:37:09 Dyson had encountered a problem with the powder coating plant used to paint the Balbaro frames.
    0:37:12 The process they were using created a significant amount of waste.
    0:37:18 When spraying the metal frames, much of the powder would miss its target and would need to be collected.
    0:37:24 The initial solution was a huge cloth screen that acted as a filter with a powerful fan behind it to create suction.
    0:37:29 But the screen would clog within an hour, halting production while workers cleaned it.
    0:37:35 Exactly the same problem that plagued vacuum cleaners worldwide, just on an industrial scale.
    0:37:41 When Dyson inquired about how larger factories solved this problem, he was told they used something called a cyclone.
    0:37:47 A huge canonical device that used centrifugal force to separate particles from the air without filters or screens.
    0:37:56 Intrigued but unable to afford this 75,000 pound machine, he was quoted to install Dyson did what innovators have done throughout history.
    0:37:58 He decided to simply build his own.
    0:38:06 One night, he drove up to a nearby sawmill that had one of their cyclones installed, parked a distance away, and under the cover of darkness, climbed the fence.
    0:38:14 By moonlight, he examined and sketched the 30-foot cone, trying to understand exactly how it worked and what its proportions were.
    0:38:22 The next day, a Sunday, Dyson and his team wielded together a 30-foot cyclone from sheets of steel, cut a hole in the factory roof, and installed their creation.
    0:38:26 When they started the production line, the results were immediate and dramatic.
    0:38:34 The powder that missed the frames was sucked up, spiraled through the cyclone, and collected into a bag at the bottom, while the clean air escaped through the tub.
    0:38:37 No stoppages, no clogging.
    0:38:40 And that’s when the connection suddenly clicked in Dyson’s mind.
    0:38:43 That evening, driving home through a storm, his thoughts raced.
    0:38:51 If industrial cyclones could separate dust from air without filters, why couldn’t the same principle work in miniature in a household vacuum cleaner?
    0:38:54 Arriving home, Dyson immediately set to work.
    0:38:57 He tore the bag off as Hoover Jr. and tried vacuuming without it.
    0:39:00 The result was a horrible spray of dust blown into the room.
    0:39:07 Next, he fashioned a foot-long cone from cardboard, covered it in tape to make it airtight, and attached it to the cleaner.
    0:39:13 He connected the outlet to the machine where the bag had been to the top of his makeshift cyclone.
    0:39:17 When he flipped the switch, instead of the dust storm he half-expected, the vacuum ran smoothly.
    0:39:25 After a few minutes, he disconnected his cardboard construction and peered inside to find a deposit of dust in the bottom of the cone.
    0:39:32 He proceeded to vacuum his entire house, repeatedly checking his creation to confirm that it wasn’t a dream.
    0:40:00 What Dyson didn’t know that October night was that his moment of inspiration would lead to five years of obsessive and painstaking development and refinement.
    0:40:09 His initial cardboard prototype demonstrated the principle, but creating a practical, efficient, and manufacturable product would prove far more challenging.
    0:40:15 As Dyson tells it, after that initial eureka, it was a long haul to the dual cyclone.
    0:40:22 So-called because the outer cyclone rotating at 200 miles per hour removes large debris and most of the dust,
    0:40:33 while an inner cyclone rotating at 924 miles per hour creates huge gravitational force and drives the finest dust, even particles of cigarette smoke, out of the air.
    0:40:38 This five-year period tested not only Dyson’s engineering acumen, but his personal resilience.
    0:40:49 The family lived on his wife’s modest income as an art teacher, while James obsessively worked on prototype after prototype in his workshop, while racking up ever-increasing amounts of debt.
    0:40:56 These were lean years, with young children to raise and a mortgage to pay, and interest rates among the highest they’ve ever been.
    0:41:01 Yet Dyson remained fixated on solving this single problem.
    0:41:04 In one sense, it was all a bit of a disaster, he admitted.
    0:41:07 I had no job, no income, and a sizable mortgage to pay off.
    0:41:12 Yet, this moment of apparent crisis was actually the beginning of his greatest work.
    0:41:19 What’s remarkable about Dyson’s process wasn’t just the sheer number of prototypes, though that number has become legendary,
    0:41:26 But the methodical approach to each iteration, every failure pointed to a specific problem that needed solving.
    0:41:32 The airflow wasn’t right, the cyclone’s proportions were off, the dust separation wasn’t efficient enough.
    0:41:38 By the time he had achieved a working design in 1983, with the launch of the G-Force in Japan,
    0:41:47 Dyson had created 5,127 prototypes, a number that has become mythical in innovation circles.
    0:41:53 I made 5,127 prototypes of my vacuum before I got it right, he famously stated.
    0:41:59 That means there were 5,126 failures, but I learned from each one.
    0:42:00 That’s how I came up with a solution.
    0:42:02 So I didn’t mind failure.
    0:42:08 This embrace of failure as a teaching tool rather than a dead end places Dyson in the tradition of Thomas Edison,
    0:42:13 who reportedly found 10,000 ways not to make the light bulb before finding one that worked.
    0:42:15 Edison’s famous quote,
    0:42:21 I have not failed, I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work, could just as easily have come from Dyson’s math.
    0:42:24 Indeed, Dyson later articulated a similar philosophy.
    0:42:26 Enjoy failure and learn from it.
    0:42:28 You never learn from success.
    0:42:34 With a working prototype finally in hand, after five years, Dyson thought the hardest part was over.
    0:42:37 Little did he know, it was just beginning.
    0:42:45 He pitched the established vacuum manufacturers a no-brainer, a bagless vacuum cleaner that never lost suction.
    0:42:47 It wasn’t theory, he could show them a prototype.
    0:42:50 But the response was like a door slamming in his face.
    0:42:57 James, if there were a better kind of vacuum cleaner, Hoover or Electrolux would have invented it, they scoffed.
    0:43:01 It’s the smug dismissal you hear in entrepreneurial lore.
    0:43:05 The assumption that if it’s possible, the big dogs would have already done it.
    0:43:08 Western Union said the same thing about the telephone.
    0:43:11 IBM shrugged about the personal computer.
    0:43:13 Kodak about the digital camera.
    0:43:17 For Dyson, this didn’t kill his drive.
    0:43:17 It lit a fire.
    0:43:21 This is Clayton Christensen’s innovation dilemma in action.
    0:43:31 Successful companies locked into their current customers and profits miss disruptive innovations that seem inferior at first, but eventually upend everything.
    0:43:34 The vacuum giants weren’t just blind, they were trapped.
    0:43:40 Because their business model ran on the razor and blades model, cranking out high margin replacement bags.
    0:43:45 A bagless vacuum didn’t just challenge their technology, it threatened their whole way of business.
    0:43:52 The established players weren’t merely overlooking Dyson’s invention, they were actively protecting their golden goose.
    0:43:57 They’d optimize everything from manufacturing and marketing and distribution, all to sell bags.
    0:44:00 Why risk that for some unproving gizmo?
    0:44:03 It’s the rational call until it’s not.
    0:44:05 The pattern is predictable.
    0:44:07 First, they ignore the innovation.
    0:44:08 It can’t work.
    0:44:09 Then they dismiss it.
    0:44:10 It’s not important.
    0:44:12 And then they panic when it’s too late.
    0:44:15 Elon Musk hit this wall with Tesla.
    0:44:17 Steve Jobs smashed through it with the iPod.
    0:44:21 Incumbents all over the world can’t imagine a different future.
    0:44:24 And that’s the crack that disruptors exploit.
    0:44:28 Charlie Munger calls it commitment and consistency bias.
    0:44:33 Once you’re all in on a path, changing feels impossible, even when the evidence screams otherwise.
    0:44:38 This psychological trap transforms market leaders into sitting ducks.
    0:44:43 For Dyson, the rejection meant going solo, building and selling his invention without the big players.
    0:44:44 Daunting, sure.
    0:44:46 But he’d come too far to quit.
    0:45:01 Unable to find an existing manufacturer in the UK willing to produce his vacuum, Dyson turned to Japan, where a licensing deal with a company called Apex allowed the GeForce Cleaner to be marketed as a luxury item, selling for the equivalent of $2,000.
    0:45:11 Although this high-end positioning didn’t reflect Dyson’s original vision for wide market adoption, it provided two crucial things, income and validation.
    0:45:16 It proved that people, at least in Japan, were willing to pay a premium for a breakthrough in cleaning technology.
    0:45:23 Royalties from Japan soon began flowing back to Britain, enabling Dyson to take bold steps that many had warned were foolish.
    0:45:28 He had tried to find a partner to manufacture this with him, but he couldn’t find one.
    0:45:31 So he decided that he was going to open his own manufacturing facility.
    0:45:39 And by 1993, he introduced the Dyson DC-01 to the UK market, an unapologetically unusual machine.
    0:45:50 With bright colors, transparent dustbins, and an exposed cyclone system, the vacuum’s design flew in the face of every convention that had been defined in the industry.
    0:45:55 As Dyson would later remarked, going against established expert thinking was a huge risk.
    0:45:59 No one could confirm that what we were doing was a good idea.
    0:46:02 Everyone, in fact, confirmed the reverse.
    0:46:09 If, however, we had believed the science and not trusted our instincts, we would have ended up following the path of dull conformity.
    0:46:13 Dyson believed in himself, even though nobody else believed in him.
    0:46:21 The Dyson DC-01’s central selling point, the only vacuum cleaner that doesn’t lose suction, wasn’t just a clever tagline.
    0:46:29 It laid bare what Dyson viewed as the fundamental flaw of the bag-based vacuums, a loss of performance the moment the bag began filling.
    0:46:34 That indictment of the entire industry didn’t just intrigue curious homeowners.
    0:46:38 It challenged competitors who could no longer claim bags were good enough.
    0:46:48 Dyson’s approach quickly drew attention, and initial sales, though modest, began to surge as word spread about the machine’s staggering suction power and ease of emptying.
    0:46:56 By 1995, it had become the best-selling vacuum cleaner in the UK, topping the very brands that had once dismissed Dyson’s idea.
    0:47:05 Meanwhile, the industry’s knee-jerk reaction was to hastily develop bagless technologies of their own, a scramble that validated the cyclone-based system.
    0:47:14 But thoughtfully, Dyson had safeguarded his inventions with over 100 patents, a legal moat that forced his rivals to tread very carefully.
    0:47:19 When Hoover released a suspiciously similar product, Dyson stood his ground in court.
    0:47:26 He won over 4 million British pounds in damages, reinforcing the message that real innovation can and should be protected.
    0:47:31 As he would insist, by its very nature, pioneering will not always be successful.
    0:47:35 We don’t start these ventures with the inevitability of success.
    0:47:38 We are too aware that we may well fail.
    0:47:43 But I also think if we fail, better drown than duffers.
    0:47:51 What began in a cramped kitchen amid cardboard prototypes and relentless late-night tinkering evolved into a global empire.
    0:48:01 Dyson’s story extended well beyond vacuums, branching into hand dryers, vans, hair care, and even the ambitious foray into electric vehicles.
    0:48:07 Yet the products themselves were less significant than the spirit of invention they represented.
    0:48:13 The real legacy was Dyson’s determined belief that everyday objects could and should be rethought from the ground up.
    0:48:19 In his view, following the path of dull conformity is precisely how incumbents remain stuck.
    0:48:24 His success not only caused manufacturers to re-examine their own design assumptions,
    0:48:31 but it also planted a broader realization where people find persistent frustrations they can and should innovate.
    0:48:37 For James Dyson, that conviction, honed through adversity in the UK and validated in Japan,
    0:48:42 transformed one man’s frustration with a vacuum bag into a multi-billion dollar business
    0:48:47 and ultimately a model for re-imagining the objects we use every day.
    0:48:55 But late 1990s, with his vacuum cleaners flying off the shelves and the Dyson name fast becoming synonymous with vacuums,
    0:49:00 James Dyson faced the standard menu of options awaiting any successful entrepreneur.
    0:49:06 Sell to a larger company, take the business public, or perhaps just ease into a comfortable role as chairman.
    0:49:09 Delegate the hard work and enjoy the fruits of your labor.
    0:49:12 It was, after all, what everyone expected.
    0:49:15 Everyone, that is, except for James Dyson.
    0:49:18 Instead, he did something that left business analysts scratching their heads.
    0:49:22 He plowed enormous amounts of money back into research and development.
    0:49:27 While competitors were typically allocating 2-3% of revenue to research and development,
    0:49:31 Dyson was routinely investing 20% or more.
    0:49:34 This wasn’t just an abstract commitment to innovation.
    0:49:39 It was a fundamental challenge to the conventional wisdom of how to run a business.
    0:49:46 I’m not interested in appearing on some rich list, Dyson remarked with characteristic dismissiveness toward the trapping of wealth.
    0:49:54 What’s far more satisfying is seeing something you’ve designed on someone’s kitchen counter or hearing someone talk about their Dyson as if it’s a family member.
    0:50:00 In a business landscape dominated by the relentless quarterly results focus of publicly traded companies,
    0:50:06 Dyson’s passion-driven approach stood out like one of his vacuum cleaners in a sea of beige appliances.
    0:50:09 By keeping the company private and maintaining control,
    0:50:15 he ensured that engineering excellence, not shareholder demands, drove the decision-making.
    0:50:22 The irony, this stubborn refusal to focus on profit ultimately proved more profitable than a profit-first strategy would have been.
    0:50:26 By creating better products rather than just better marketed ones,
    0:50:32 Dyson built a brand that commanded premium prices and inspired unusual loyalty amongst its customers.
    0:50:36 Achievements that no amount of clever advertising could accomplish.
    0:50:45 In 2006, if you had walked into a public restroom and seen someone seemingly karate chopping the air beneath a strange metal contraption mounted on the wall,
    0:50:51 you would have witnessed one of Dyson’s newest converts experiencing the Airblade hand dryer for the first time.
    0:50:55 The traditional hand dryers had worked on a simple but ineffective principle.
    0:50:59 Blow warm air over wet hands and hope for evaporation.
    0:51:06 The process was slow, energy inefficient, and often left hands damp enough that most people would give up and wipe them on their pants.
    0:51:11 The Airblade, in typical Dyson fashion, attacked the problem from a completely different angle,
    0:51:18 using sheets of high-velocity, unheated air to physically scrape water from hands,
    0:51:22 drying them in just 10 to 12 seconds instead of the typical 30 to 45.
    0:51:26 This wasn’t just a marginally better hand dryer.
    0:51:29 It was a fundamental rethinking of what hand dryers could be.
    0:51:34 And like the vacuum before it, it solved an everyday frustration most people had simply accepted as normal.
    0:51:43 Then in 2009 came perhaps the most visually striking Dyson innovation, the Air Multiplier, also known as the bladeless fan.
    0:51:48 With its distinctive ring design, it eliminated the chopping blades of traditional fans,
    0:51:52 making them safer and easier to clean while delivering smoother airflow.
    0:51:58 The product’s alien appearance became instantly iconic, a physical manifestation of Dyson’s philosophy
    0:52:03 that when function is properly executed, distinctive form follows naturally.
    0:52:09 In testing the Air Multiplier, Dyson engineers sometimes found themselves sticking their heads through the empty ring,
    0:52:14 a demonstration that would later become a staple of Dyson’s public appearances with the product.
    0:52:19 It was also emblematic of the company’s playful approach to serious engineering.
    0:52:25 Eight years later, Dyson tackled an appliance that hadn’t seen meaningful innovation since the 1960s,
    0:52:27 the hairdryer.
    0:52:32 Traditional models were loud, heavy, and prone to overheating, and often damaged the hair.
    0:52:37 The supersonic, with its miniaturized motor in the handle rather than the head,
    0:52:41 addressed all of these issues while exemplifying another Dyson principle.
    0:52:46 Sometimes the most significant innovations come from solving the least glamorous problem.
    0:52:53 To create the supersonic, engineers tested 1,010 miles of hair to crack and heat damage.
    0:52:57 Hundreds of prototypes later, they shrunk the motor into the handle.
    0:53:02 Throughout these expansions, Dyson maintained his characteristic approach to product development,
    0:53:05 expressed in his oft-quoted observation.
    0:53:09 Everything can be improved, you just have to look for the frustration.
    0:53:14 This simple yet profound insight cuts to the heart of Dyson’s innovation philosophy.
    0:53:17 Rather than starting with market research or competitor analysis,
    0:53:20 the standard playbook for product development,
    0:53:26 Dyson products began with identifying everyday frustrations that people have come to accept as normal.
    0:53:29 Each new product category followed the same pattern.
    0:53:32 Find a common device that doesn’t work as well as it could,
    0:53:34 and reimagine it from first principles.
    0:53:40 It’s a philosophy that seems obvious in retrospect, yet remains strikingly rare in practice.
    0:53:46 Visit Dyson’s headquarters and you won’t find the standard corporate divisions between thinkers and doers.
    0:53:52 Unlike many companies where engineers design and technicians build and testers evaluate,
    0:53:56 Dyson engineers are involved throughout the entire process,
    0:53:59 a reflection of Dyson’s own hands-on approach.
    0:54:04 Our engineers build their own prototypes and test them so we understand how and why they might fail,
    0:54:05 Dyson explains.
    0:54:08 This isn’t just a nice philosophical stance.
    0:54:14 It’s a practical recognition that those designing products need intimate knowledge of their real-world
    0:54:14 performance.
    0:54:20 The tighter the feedback loop between design and function, the faster innovation happens.
    0:54:23 This philosophy extends to Dyson’s hiring practices,
    0:54:26 where the company often recruits engineers straight from universities.
    0:54:30 The preference for fresh minds, unencumbered by industry conventions,
    0:54:34 over-experienced professionals who might reflexively say that’s not how we do it,
    0:54:36 isn’t just about youthful energy.
    0:54:41 It’s about maintaining the company’s ability to question basic assumptions.
    0:54:45 When developing a new product, Dyson teams are encouraged to build and test rapidly,
    0:54:47 embracing failure as an education.
    0:54:53 Just as James Dyson did with his 5,127 vacuum prototypes.
    0:54:58 The company’s laboratories have evolved into a testing wonderland, featuring everything from
    0:55:04 acoustic chambers from measuring noise to robotic arms that simulate years of usage in accelerated
    0:55:04 time.
    0:55:10 Marketing considerations will not ignore, take a clear backseat to engineering excellence.
    0:55:16 Stories are abound of Dyson rejecting market-ready products because some aspect of their performance
    0:55:21 didn’t meet his exacting standards, often to the frustration of the company’s commercial
    0:55:23 teams eager to meet launch deadlines.
    0:55:29 We were criticized for the short runtime, Dyson notes, about their first battery-powered devices,
    0:55:34 a decision that went against conventional wisdom but proved correct as battery technology improved.
    0:55:39 The company’s willingness to make unpopular short-term decisions in service of a long-term vision
    0:55:44 is perhaps its most distinctive characteristic, in an industry typically driven by immediate
    0:55:45 sales considerations.
    0:55:48 This approach isn’t without its cause.
    0:55:53 Dyson products are notoriously expensive to develop and consequently command premium prices.
    0:55:58 But this alignment of higher costs with genuinely superior performance has created a virtuous cycle.
    0:56:04 Customers willing to pay more for better products fuel the R&D that creates the next generation
    0:56:05 of innovations.
    0:56:09 It’s a business model that feels almost quaint in its straightforwardness.
    0:56:14 Make things that work better, charge more for them, and use the profits to make even more
    0:56:14 better things.
    0:56:22 If innovation is the lifeblood of Dyson’s business, then patents are its immune system.
    0:56:26 And James Dyson has proven himself just as tenacious in defending his intellectual property
    0:56:29 as he was in developing it in the first place.
    0:56:35 The most famous of these legal battles was Dyson’s 1999 lawsuit against Hoover for patent infringement.
    0:56:41 After Dyson’s vacuum cleaner became a clear market success, Hoover introduced its own bagless
    0:56:43 model using similar cyclone technology.
    0:56:49 Dyson sued, and after a five-year legal battle, won damages of 4 million British pounds.
    0:56:55 This victory wasn’t significant just financially, but it was really symbolically significant for
    0:57:00 Dyson, establishing that even a relatively new company could successfully defend its intellectual
    0:57:02 property against an industry giant.
    0:57:08 It sent a clear message that Dyson wouldn’t be intimidated by larger competitors attempting
    0:57:09 to copy his innovation.
    0:57:15 For Dyson, patents aren’t merely legal instruments, but essential safeguards that make innovation
    0:57:17 economically viable.
    0:57:22 Without patent protection, the enormous investments required to develop truly new technologies would
    0:57:28 be financially unjustifiable as competitors could simply copy successful products without bearing
    0:57:30 the R&D costs.
    0:57:32 This dance hasn’t been without controversy.
    0:57:37 Critics argue that aggressive patent enforcement can stifle innovation by preventing others from
    0:57:39 building on existing ideas.
    0:57:45 But Dyson counters that genuine innovation means creating something truly new, not incrementally
    0:57:46 modifying something.
    0:57:52 In my view, Dyson argues, patents need a longer life to reflect today’s long research and development
    0:57:52 cycles.
    0:57:57 It’s a perspective that places him somewhat at odds with the open source movement and those
    0:58:01 who believe that looser intellectual property restrictions would accelerate innovation.
    0:58:04 Yet it’s hard to argue with the results.
    0:58:09 Without the protection of patents, would Dyson have been able to sustain the massive R&D investments
    0:58:12 that produced such a stream of innovative products?
    0:58:18 This question really cuts to the heart of how societies balance incentives for individual innovators
    0:58:21 against the broader benefits of shared knowledge.
    0:58:28 Perhaps the most distinctive aspect of Dyson’s business trajectory is his steadfast refusal to sell the
    0:58:31 company or take it public, despite numerous lucrative offers.
    0:58:37 This decision has allowed him to maintain complete control over the company’s direction and priorities,
    0:58:40 a luxury few entrepreneurs enjoy in the long term.
    0:58:46 In an era where founders often exit their companies through acquisition or IPO within a decade of
    0:58:52 starting them, Dyson’s 44-year tenure as the leader and sole owner of his company is remarkable.
    0:58:58 This longevity has enabled him to pursue a consistent vision without the pressures that come from
    0:59:02 external shareholders demanding quarterly results or strategic pivots.
    0:59:07 The benefits of this approach are evident in Dyson’s ability to make decisions that might appear
    0:59:10 counterintuitive in the short run, but align with his long-term vision.
    0:59:16 For example, when Dyson decided to invest $2.5 billion in developing an electric car,
    0:59:19 a project that was ultimately abandoned in 2019,
    0:59:25 he did so without having to justify the massive expenditure to shareholders or a board of directors.
    0:59:29 This freedom comes with a significant financial trade-off.
    0:59:33 By keeping the company private, Dyson delayed his own financial gratification for decades.
    0:59:37 While his contemporaries who founded and sold companies became wealthy,
    0:59:43 much earlier in their careers, Dyson’s wealth remained largely on paper until much later in life.
    0:59:48 The lesson here isn’t that every entrepreneur should keep their company ownership indefinitely.
    0:59:52 That path isn’t realistic or desirable for a lot of ventures.
    0:59:56 Rather, it’s that maintaining sufficient control to pursue your vision
    0:59:59 can be worth more than maximizing short-term financial returns.
    1:00:03 In Britain, where entrepreneurs at the earliest opportunity often
    1:00:05 sell out to take their companies public,
    1:00:08 Dyson’s approach stands out as particularly unusual.
    1:00:11 He has commanded that his tenacity to cash out quick
    1:00:14 suggests either a lack of passion for the business itself
    1:00:18 or a fear of losing everything before having a chance to profit.
    1:00:22 By contrast, Dyson’s unwillingness to relinquish control
    1:00:25 reflects a fundamentally different relationship to his creation.
    1:00:28 Not merely as a vehicle for wealth generation,
    1:00:31 but a platform for continuing innovation and impact.
    1:00:38 Let’s recap Dyson’s path from art school graduate to billionaire inventor and industrialist.
    1:00:42 What’s most striking here is the consistency of his approach
    1:00:45 across more than four decades of dramatic change.
    1:00:49 From the loss of his father at a young age through his education in design
    1:00:53 rather than engineering to his early career working under Jeremy Fry,
    1:00:57 these formative experiences shaped the unconventional approach
    1:00:59 that would later define his business career.
    1:01:02 The ball barrel represented his first commercial success,
    1:01:04 but also his first harsh business lesson
    1:01:07 when he lost control of the company to his partners.
    1:01:13 This experience informed his later insistence on maintaining ownership and control of Dyson,
    1:01:18 a decision that would prove critical to his ability to pursue long-term innovation.
    1:01:24 The development of the Cyclonic vacuum cleaner with its famous 5,127 prototypes
    1:01:29 over five years exemplifies the persistence that became Dyson’s hallmark.
    1:01:33 Unable to interest existing manufacturers in his invention,
    1:01:35 he was forced to commercialize it himself,
    1:01:40 first through licensing in Japan and later through direct manufacturing and sales.
    1:01:43 After achieving success in vacuum cleaners,
    1:01:47 Dyson systematically applied his engineering principles to other categories,
    1:01:50 hand dryers, fans, hair dryers, air purifiers,
    1:01:55 each time reimagining products that had seen little fundamental innovation for decades.
    1:01:58 Throughout this journey, Dyson maintained a consistent philosophy,
    1:02:03 identify everyday frustrations, question conventional solutions,
    1:02:06 iterate relentlessly toward better alternatives,
    1:02:09 and never compromise on engineering excellence.
    1:02:18 What appears from an outsider as an overnight success was in reality a 15-year journey from initial insight to commercial triumph.
    1:02:24 It was five years before the G-Force, but it was 15 before he really took off in the UK.
    1:02:29 And there’s a whole section in the book about how his partners in Japan sort of swindled him a bit,
    1:02:31 which it’s worth reading for sure.
    1:02:36 James Dyson is a reminder that genuine innovation often requires a time horizon
    1:02:40 longer than most businesses or investors are willing to contemplate.
    1:02:46 Those long runs that he did so early on in life served as great training ground for going through the grind.
    1:02:53 This philosophy extends beyond products to Dyson’s approach to education, intellectual property, and business ownership.
    1:02:59 A comprehensive vision of how innovation should work, not just within his company, but within society as a whole.
    1:03:06 It’s a vision that challenges conventional wisdom at nearly every turn, yet has proven remarkably effective in practice.
    1:03:09 In a world increasingly dominated by short-term thinking,
    1:03:13 Dyson stands out as a testament to the power of playing the long game.
    1:03:19 And a reminder that the most revolutionary innovations begin with nothing more than a willingness to ask,
    1:03:21 isn’t there a better way?
    1:03:34 Okay, let’s go over my reflections and some of the lessons learned from James Dyson’s incredible story.
    1:03:37 So the first, persistence is key.
    1:03:39 His story isn’t about genius.
    1:03:40 It’s really about persistence.
    1:03:42 The same as Estee Lauder.
    1:03:47 He built 5,127 prototypes over five years to launch the G-Force in Japan,
    1:03:52 and then spent another decade perfecting the DC-01 for the world.
    1:03:56 Innovation meant questioning experts, embracing failure, and owning his vision.
    1:03:59 He was told no over and over again.
    1:04:00 He was sued.
    1:04:04 He was nearly bankrupt with debt, yet he didn’t give up.
    1:04:06 Two, master your circumstances.
    1:04:10 Dyson learned early that losing control can sink you.
    1:04:13 With the C-truck, he watched shareholders sell out when times got tough.
    1:04:17 With the ball barrow, he was ousted despite his breakthroughs.
    1:04:23 These mishaps taught him to master his fate, keeping an ironclad control over IP and the company itself.
    1:04:26 It’s a hidden key to Berkshire Hathaway’s success, too.
    1:04:28 Own your destiny or others will.
    1:04:39 At dinner one night, I was talking with Charlie Munger, and I asked him for the unconventional sort of things that people don’t appreciate as much about Berkshire Hathaway’s success as he might think that they should.
    1:04:45 And one of the things that he mentioned to me was, he said, Warren and I have rarely been forced into a bad decision.
    1:04:47 And I took that to think about positioning a lot.
    1:04:59 You know, if an outside shareholder can come in and start dictating what you do or where you save money or what you do with the cash on your balance sheet and change your strategy, you can’t play out your vision.
    1:05:00 You can’t play the long game.
    1:05:01 You’re instantly playing the short game.
    1:05:06 And so I think that is a really underappreciated aspect of Berkshire Hathaway’s success.
    1:05:10 I also think it’s a really underappreciated aspect of Dyson’s success.
    1:05:20 He’s maintained this company now since the 1970s, and he’s been able to execute on his vision because nobody can come in and tell him what to do.
    1:05:22 Three, capacity to take pain.
    1:05:25 Behind any great achievement lies the capacity to take pain.
    1:05:28 If you want to see your vision through to the end, there’s going to be ups and downs.
    1:05:30 There’s not only going to be financial pain.
    1:05:32 There’s going to be emotional and psychological pain.
    1:05:34 You have to be willing to look different.
    1:05:36 You have to be willing to do things different.
    1:05:46 And, you know, Dyson, from the solitary long runs as a kid to legal battles, mounting debt, prototypes, numerous rejections, he just took the lumps and kept going.
    1:05:48 This isn’t to say that he didn’t have ups and downs.
    1:05:53 And I suspect, although the book didn’t lean into it a lot, that his partner played a key role here, too.
    1:05:58 And your partner plays a really big role in your psychology and whether you keep going or whether you…
    1:06:04 And the key here is believing in yourself, even when others don’t or won’t.
    1:06:06 Four, the standard was excellent.
    1:06:10 He didn’t release a product until it was perfect.
    1:06:16 He didn’t flinch at charging more for a vacuum cleaner or plowing 20% of revenue into R&D.
    1:06:18 Seven times the industry norm.
    1:06:20 He bet on excellence, not shortcuts.
    1:06:22 Profits naturally follow excellence.
    1:06:25 Five, he didn’t dilute the message.
    1:06:28 People don’t want a product that does 10 things with average ability.
    1:06:32 They want a product that does one thing with above average ability.
    1:06:36 Exceptionally good at one thing is better than average at a lot of things.
    1:06:40 When it was time to market the dual cyclone, he focused on its unmatched suction.
    1:06:41 Nothing else.
    1:06:43 He didn’t dilute the message.
    1:06:46 Six, action leads to progress.
    1:06:48 Dyson didn’t just dream.
    1:06:53 He built from rigging a cyclone for the Balbaro factory to testing countless prototypes himself.
    1:06:55 He learned to go build it and see.
    1:06:58 Progress comes from starting.
    1:07:02 Seven, founders should run companies or at least people that deeply care.
    1:07:08 It’ll be interesting to see what Dyson does with his legacy, but I suspect he won’t be passing the business over to an MBA,
    1:07:15 but rather an engineer who cares deeply about the product, about innovation, about the people working for the company.
    1:07:19 Eight, there are billion-dollar ideas in common frustrations.
    1:07:22 Forget market research or copying competitors.
    1:07:23 Dyson started with what annoyed him.
    1:07:25 His vacuum cleaner losing suction.
    1:07:28 Wheelbarrows tipping over and getting stuck.
    1:07:29 Hand dryers failing.
    1:07:34 From the Balbaro to the Airblade, he reimagined the ordinary from first principles up.
    1:07:36 If you’re looking for ideas, look at where you’re frustrated.
    1:07:38 Nine, play the long game.
    1:07:45 At nearly every opportunity where Dyson can make a choice between the short-term and the long-term, he chooses the long-term.
    1:07:49 I hope you loved this book as much as I did.
    1:07:53 I think James Dyson is such an incredible character and person.
    1:07:55 Hopefully we can get him on the podcast.
    1:07:56 That would be amazing.
    1:07:59 If not, if you’re looking to learn more about him,
    1:08:02 I highly recommend you pick up his autobiography, Against the Odds.
    1:08:04 James Dyson is a force of will.
    1:08:06 He’s a model of persistence.
    1:08:08 And I want to see him keep going.
    1:08:10 Thanks for listening and learning.
    1:08:35 For a complete list of episodes, show notes, transcripts, and more, go to fs.blog slash podcast, or just Google The Knowledge Project.
    1:08:43 The Farnham Street blog is also where you can learn more about my new book, Clear Thinking, turning ordinary moments into extraordinary results.
    1:08:52 It’s a transformative guide that hands you the tools to master your fate, sharpen your decision-making, and set yourself up for unparalleled success.
    1:08:56 Learn more at fs.blog slash clear.
    1:08:57 Until next time.

    How do you turn 5,127 failures into a multi-billion-dollar empire? James Dyson turned dust into possibility, failure into discovery, and frustration into revolution.  

     

    Dyson didn’t just build a better vacuum; he redefined a whole industry. Facing thousands of failed prototypes, crushing financial setbacks, and a dismissive industry that insisted a superior vacuum was impossible, Dyson transformed doubt into fuel that created an empire he still owns and operates today.

    Dyson’s genius stretched far beyond engineering. He was a contrarian thinker whose natural state was to defy the experts. From reinventing hand dryers to fans and hairdryers, Dyson repeatedly turned mundane frustrations into game-changing products. His relentless curiosity and willingness to fail publicly set new standards for innovation. When competitors mocked him, he stayed focused. When patents were threatened, he defended fiercely. Dyson’s story is one of unwavering persistence, unorthodox creativity, and the courage to trust his own instincts—even when everyone else doubted.   

     

    This is the story of James Dyson. Learn how one decision can change everything for a whole family. 

     

    This episode is for informational purposes only and is based on Against the Odds: An Autobiography by James Dyson. Quotes from Against the Odds and James Dyson’s Invention: A Life 

    (02:35) Prologue: The Kitchen Floor Experiment

    PART 1 – EARLY SPARKS OF TENACITY

    (05:05) A Childhood of Resilience and Determination

    (08:19) Gresham’s School

    (11:25) From Art to Engineering: A Defiance of Convention

    (14:58) A Mentor: Jeremy Fry

    (17:37) Just Build It

    (19:23) The Sea Truck

    (22:16) Lessons From The Egyptians

    (24:16) Misfit Mentality

    PART 2: FIRST INVENTIONS AND HARD LESSONS

    (26:48) Reinventing The Wheel(barrow)

    (28:54) Popular Not Profitable

    (30:56) Leaving Ballbarrow with Nothing

    (34:09) History of the Vaccuum

    (36:23) Cyclone in a Sawmill

    (39:17) 5,127 Prototypes

    (41:57) Industry Rejection

    (44:14) Building the Business

    PART 3: BUILDING AN EMPIRE

    (48:15) Passion Over Profit

    (50:04) Beyond Vacuums

    (53:08) R&D Culture & Iterative Design

    (55:44) Patent Wars & Legal Battles

    (57:49) Value of Keeping Ownership

    (59:59) Recap of Dyson’s Journey

    (01:02:55) SHANE’S REFLECTIONS

    Upgrade — If you want to hear my thoughts and reflections at the end of all episodes, join our membership: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠ and get your own private feed.

    Newsletter – The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at fs.blog/newsletter

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  • #219 Logan Ury: The Dating Myths You Need to Stop Believing

    AI transcript
    0:00:05 – Your dating app profile is sort of like your billboard.
    0:00:08 You are telling a story about who you are.
    0:00:09 Am I ready to date?
    0:00:10 Who should I date?
    0:00:11 Should I keep dating this person?
    0:00:12 Should we move in together?
    0:00:13 Should we get married?
    0:00:16 Each of these is a pivotal point in your life.
    0:00:19 The thing that we think makes us unlovable
    0:00:22 is often what makes somebody feel comfortable around us.
    0:00:24 But if we truly feel like we’re unlovable,
    0:00:26 we never open up and give somebody the chance
    0:00:28 to see that for themselves.
    0:00:29 The sooner you learn how to date,
    0:00:31 the sooner you can stop dating,
    0:00:34 it’s not about gathering information,
    0:00:36 it’s about having an experience with them.
    0:00:39 Imagine that you spend 50 years with someone.
    0:00:44 The day that you meet is .0055% of your total time with them.
    0:00:47 You have to shoot your shot.
    0:00:49 You have to approach people in public.
    0:00:51 You have to take a risk.
    0:01:05 You have to approach people in public.
    0:01:07 Welcome to The Knowledge Project.
    0:01:09 I’m your host, Shane Parrish.
    0:01:11 If you want to take your learning to the next level,
    0:01:15 consider joining our membership program at fs.blog/membership.
    0:01:20 As a member, you’ll get my personal reflections at the end of every episode.
    0:01:29 Early access to episodes, no ads including this, exclusive content, hand edited transcripts, and so much more.
    0:01:31 Check out the link in the show notes for more.
    0:01:39 Today’s episode is all about rethinking modern relationships from first dates to breakups and everything in between.
    0:01:46 My guest is Logan Urie, a behavioral scientist, dating coach, and the director of relationship science at Hinge.
    0:01:54 She’s the best-selling author of How Not to Die Alone and a leading expert in how we form, maintain, and end relationships.
    0:02:01 Logan challenges some of our biggest myths about dating, including the idea that you need to wait for the spark.
    0:02:10 Instead, she shares what really matters in a long-term partner, someone you’re genuinely interested in, who makes you feel good, and who brings out the best in you.
    0:02:21 We cover how to approach dating apps and first dates with the right mindset, why clear communication is everything, and how to navigate a difficult conversation in love and beyond.
    0:02:25 I’ve got to be honest, I feel a bit vulnerable putting this conversation out there.
    0:02:34 I share more about my personal life and mindset than I have before, but I’m hoping someone out there can relate and feel less alone in their journey to find a partner.
    0:02:44 So whether you’re looking for that partner, trying to strengthen your relationship, or just hoping to better connect with the people in your life, this conversation is filled with insights to help get you there.
    0:02:47 It’s time to listen and learn.
    0:02:54 I want to start at the beginning, which would be a first date.
    0:02:54 Great.
    0:03:02 You’ve reframed this from, I want to find my soulmate, to do I want to spend more time with this person?
    0:03:03 Walk me through that.
    0:03:07 A lot of people on a first date put so much pressure on themselves.
    0:03:10 They’re really thinking about, could I spend the rest of my life with this person?
    0:03:11 I’m really busy.
    0:03:13 Would I want to see them again?
    0:03:18 I’m going to treat this like a job interview where I ask them, what’s your five-year plan?
    0:03:19 And what did you study in college?
    0:03:23 And really interviewing this person for the role of spouse.
    0:03:27 And then, of course, people don’t feel any spark or any excitement.
    0:03:35 And so I like to take the pressure off of a first date and say, this is really an opportunity to have an experience with somebody else, to have some fun.
    0:03:38 And then if you have a good time, you can see them again.
    0:03:43 And you don’t have to overthink it and think, is this person who I want to spend the rest of my life with?
    0:03:47 So I’ve been guilty of this in terms of the spark.
    0:03:52 You know, you walk away from a first date and you’re like, yeah, they’re a nice person, but maybe they’re boring.
    0:03:56 Or you didn’t feel that instant romantic connection.
    0:03:58 And what do you think about the spark?
    0:04:00 I mean, we all look for the spark.
    0:04:02 Yeah, so the spark is very exciting.
    0:04:06 Who doesn’t want to have that feeling of fireworks and instant chemistry with someone?
    0:04:11 But through the work I’ve done, I’ve actually come to see the spark as a bit of my nemesis.
    0:04:16 Because I have coaching clients who say to me, Logan, I went out with this guy.
    0:04:17 He was great.
    0:04:18 We had a good time.
    0:04:20 Oh, I’m not going to see him again.
    0:04:22 Like, what are you talking about?
    0:04:24 And they say, I just didn’t feel the spark.
    0:04:32 And so in our culture, people have come to expect that if you don’t have that instant feeling, then it must not be your person.
    0:04:37 And instead, I teach my coaching clients about the three myths of the spark.
    0:04:42 So the first myth is that if you don’t have the spark, then it can’t grow.
    0:04:43 And that’s absolutely not true.
    0:04:47 So we know from research that only 11% of people feel love at first sight.
    0:04:52 And that means many people are getting to know someone over time.
    0:04:53 Maybe they live in the same apartment building.
    0:04:55 They work in the same place.
    0:04:58 And that attraction and appreciation grows over time.
    0:04:59 So the spark can definitely grow.
    0:05:04 The second myth is that if you feel the spark, it’s definitely a good thing.
    0:05:10 And actually, sometimes certain people give us the spark because we actually don’t know how they feel about us.
    0:05:14 So sort of that hot, cold feeling makes us wonder, does he like me?
    0:05:15 Does he not like me?
    0:05:22 And through that, we end up feeling what we think of as butterflies or chemistry, but it’s actually anxiety.
    0:05:25 And it’s actually alarm bells in our head going off.
    0:05:26 Do they like me?
    0:05:27 Do they not like me?
    0:05:27 Am I accepted?
    0:05:35 And so sometimes it’s actually a sign of either the person giving you a hot, cold feeling or it can be somebody who’s a narcissist.
    0:05:44 I’ve also found that let’s say I go to an event and I talk to some of my girlfriends later and I’ll say, oh, I really like that guy.
    0:05:45 We really hit it off.
    0:05:47 And then they’re like, wait, I really hit it off with that guy.
    0:05:54 And we realized we all had what felt like unique connections to this person, but they were actually just really sparky.
    0:05:57 And I imagine you meet a lot of people through doing this that are really sparky.
    0:06:02 And so certain people just give off that spark and it’s not about your dynamic with them.
    0:06:04 It’s about who they are.
    0:06:08 And then the third myth is that if you have a spark, the relationship is viable.
    0:06:10 We also know that that’s not true.
    0:06:15 Just because you met the right way doesn’t mean that it’s the right relationship.
    0:06:19 And so you can have a very sparky beginning, but it can fizzle out quickly.
    0:06:24 And you shouldn’t stay in the relationship because you had a really good we met story.
    0:06:29 And so my antidote to the spark is going after the slow burn.
    0:06:35 And the slow burn is somebody who you like them more and more as you get to know them.
    0:06:43 They may not be instantly the most charismatic person that you’ve ever met, but they’re really a quality person and they really grow on you.
    0:06:50 And not because you’re settling, but because you’re looking for love in a different package than you originally thought.
    0:06:54 You’re not just looking for the life of the party person that’s immediately as charismatic.
    0:06:58 And so I feel like I’m married to a slow burn.
    0:07:00 I met my husband in college.
    0:07:03 We met again at Google a number of years later.
    0:07:07 And now we’ve been together for almost 10 years.
    0:07:13 And so he’s somebody where I really feel like as I got to know him more and more, I liked him more and more.
    0:07:16 And so I really encourage people to go after the slow burn.
    0:07:24 But wait a second, because what ends up happening in this is like you go out on a date and you’re like, maybe, maybe not.
    0:07:30 And back in, you know, 1950, you’d have that, maybe, maybe, it was good enough to go out on again.
    0:07:32 And then you’d see the person again.
    0:07:38 But now you go home and you pick up your app and you open Hinge, you open whatever app you’re using.
    0:07:43 And you had a average, but maybe slightly above average date that could be a slow burn.
    0:07:48 And now you got 16 new messages from all these people who are more exciting.
    0:07:55 And how do you do a slow burn in that case when all of these people, oh, like, look at this person.
    0:07:55 They’re hot.
    0:07:58 Oh, they want to text me and they want to see me.
    0:08:03 And, you know, this guy or girl that I just went out with is like, oh, they set something up next week.
    0:08:04 But that’s the slow burn.
    0:08:06 How do you date in this environment?
    0:08:11 Yes, so when I wrote my book, I have a chapter called Make the Second Date the Default.
    0:08:14 And this was influenced by one of my mentors, Dan Ariely.
    0:08:27 And the idea here was that if you go on a first date and you think about it as I’m going to be evaluating you the whole time and you’re going to either win a second date or not, it puts you in this evaluative mindset.
    0:08:36 Instead, I want people to be in this experiential mindset where they’re asking themselves how the moment feels for them if they’re connecting with the person.
    0:08:46 And so in the book, I say assume that every first date you go on, you’ll go on a second date and that will help you identify the slow burns more and to really take the pressure off the first date.
    0:08:51 Well, since the book has come out, I feel like that advice is not that realistic.
    0:08:52 People are busy.
    0:08:57 People sometimes feel like I had no connection with that person.
    0:08:59 I’m not going to go on a second date with them.
    0:09:01 So I have changed my advice since the book came out.
    0:09:08 And instead of thinking about it as Make the Second Date the Default, my go-to advice here is really to do the post-date aid.
    0:09:21 So the post-date aid is a series of questions that I came up with for a client who was having a hard time deciding if she wanted to see someone again and also somebody who was having a hard time spotting the slow burn.
    0:09:28 So when you finish the date, you look at this, you can have a screenshot on your phone or, you know, memorize the questions.
    0:09:32 And they ask you things like, how did I feel in my body during the date?
    0:09:33 Did I feel stiff?
    0:09:35 Did I feel relaxed?
    0:09:38 Did this person make me laugh?
    0:09:39 Did this person make me feel heard?
    0:09:42 Did I feel curious about the person?
    0:09:46 And probably the most important one, what side of me did they bring out?
    0:09:52 Because whatever side of you you are with that person is who you’ll be for a big majority of your life if you end up with that person.
    0:09:59 And so the post-date aid is a great way to see if it was really a dud and you were 0% interested, forget it.
    0:10:00 Don’t go on the second date.
    0:10:09 But if there was maybe not the most charisma that you’ve ever encountered or there’s been people that you’ve been more attracted to in the past, it’s fine to acknowledge that.
    0:10:16 But to think there was a seed of something that was planted that I’d like to give another chance to.
    0:10:22 And so the post-date aid is a great way to see when there’s potential and to really spot those slow burn people.
    0:10:26 Talk to me a little bit more about what side they brought out in you.
    0:10:33 I’ve never thought of it that way, but looking back through some of my dates through this lens, I’m like, oh, I was defensive.
    0:10:35 I was confrontational.
    0:10:38 I was – yeah, go through that a little bit more.
    0:10:44 Yeah, I’m glad that you’re double-clicking into that because it’s really something that I think about in a lot of areas of my life.
    0:10:50 So when I was just making this career shift into the work that I do now, I met with a lot of different people to learn from them.
    0:10:55 And I’m not going to say her name, but there was one person in particular that whenever I met with her,
    0:11:00 I would just come home and sort of collapse into the couch and want to watch TV for the next few hours.
    0:11:02 I was like, what’s going on with me?
    0:11:12 And I was like, there’s something about the way that she communicates that makes me feel really small and anxious and like I don’t know what I’m doing and not good enough.
    0:11:17 There was just something about the words that she used or the questions that she was asking.
    0:11:22 And so that’s a platonic situation or, you know, it’s about career.
    0:11:27 But in that moment, I understood I don’t really enjoy being around this person because she brings out a side of me that’s insecure.
    0:11:31 Then I think about my friend Michaela, who’s one of my favorite people in the world.
    0:11:34 When I’m around her, she laughs a lot.
    0:11:35 She makes me feel hilarious.
    0:11:39 We want to stay up all night talking because she makes me feel creative and generative.
    0:11:47 And so I really will do whatever I can to be in the same room as her because she brings out a side of myself that I love.
    0:11:53 And so when people are dating, especially as they get older, their checklists of what they think they need get longer and longer.
    0:12:03 So that checklist might look like must be financially independent, must own their own home, must be this tall, must want exactly this lifestyle.
    0:12:10 And so when they go into that date, they are really looking at those things, which are often who that person is on paper.
    0:12:14 And then they ignore how they feel around that person.
    0:12:19 Because, sure, you need some basic biographical data to decide if you want to go out with someone or not.
    0:12:25 But once you’re on that date, it’s really about paying attention to who am I around them.
    0:12:26 I love that.
    0:12:28 And that applies to all areas of your life.
    0:12:34 Is it your job in that moment to dissect why you’re having that response?
    0:12:39 Or is it to just, I just don’t want to be around this person and that’s okay?
    0:12:43 I mean, my cheeky answer would be it’s my job as your dating coach to tell you that.
    0:12:49 But no, I think that in life, it really is great to dig into things like that.
    0:13:00 So it might be, I’m just remembering this story where like early on when I shifted into doing the dating and relationship stuff, I met up with this guy and I thought it was like a peer-to-peer conversation.
    0:13:04 And when I got there, he kind of leaned back and said, so what can I do for you?
    0:13:11 And it was like that one statement kind of created a power dynamic, which was like, I have power and I can help you.
    0:13:13 And I remember it really threw me off.
    0:13:23 And so when I went home and I didn’t feel good and I reflected on it, I was like, oh, like maybe our expectations weren’t the same going into it or the person who did the intro didn’t set us up for success.
    0:13:33 And so I made changes so that in the future when I had an intro like that, I was clear with the person introducing us, you know, what our goals were, things like that.
    0:13:41 Or I find that if I’m really tired and I pushed myself to go to an event, I may not have a good time there because I don’t have energy to give.
    0:13:56 And so I think for everyone, being more in touch with who you are, how you show up in different situations, what personality traits trigger you to feel more anxious or insecure, all of that is data that just helps you be a happier person.
    0:14:04 And so something that I really promote people do is date like a scientist, which is this idea of have hypotheses.
    0:14:10 So a hypothesis could be, I need to date somebody with a graduate degree, but then test that hypothesis.
    0:14:21 Maybe what you actually care about is intellectual curiosity and somebody who listens to the knowledge project, not somebody who has a master’s degree or a PhD.
    0:14:29 And so really having a hypothesis, testing it, and then being willing to be willing to be proven right or wrong.
    0:14:41 I think if we all live like a scientist and date like a scientist, we learn so much about ourselves, we push ourselves, and we actually wind up in a much happier place than if we just follow all the assumptions in our head.
    0:14:52 I want to double-click on the date like a scientist thing a little bit, and maybe I’ll bring an anonymous friend into this who runs a business, very successful, very ambitious, very wealthy.
    0:15:01 In theory, he checks all these boxes that women would want, but in reality, I mean, his saying is they don’t want what comes with that.
    0:15:08 Is that, what do you mean by dating like a scientist in the checklist, and maybe I’m loosely working around this.
    0:15:25 Yeah, so I would say a majority of my clients at this point are sort of more powerful male CEOs, and I feel like it is interesting to just hear, you know, women are excited about what they have access to, but then they may not understand that this person works 18 hours a day.
    0:15:36 Or that maybe this person has a chip on their shoulder because when they weren’t successful, they felt like they didn’t get a lot of attention, and so I feel like the unique problems of that situation are something that I’ve dealt with.
    0:15:38 So just breaking down date like a scientist.
    0:15:46 When I work with people in my coaching, in my courses, people walk in with assumptions of what they need.
    0:15:55 So it might be, I need to date somebody who’s six feet or taller because I’m a taller woman, and that’s what makes me feel feminine.
    0:16:02 So then I might say to them, hey, in the United States, only 14% of men are six feet or taller.
    0:16:07 So now you are eliminating 86% of the male population.
    0:16:10 You’ve been actively dating for 12 years.
    0:16:12 This has not worked out for you so far.
    0:16:18 Why don’t you change your filter on the dating apps, be willing to date somebody who’s shorter, and see.
    0:16:24 Maybe what you actually care about is somebody who’s confident where your height doesn’t feel like a factor.
    0:16:32 Maybe you’ll end up with somebody a lot shorter than you, and this is what happened to a man and a woman that I know, because it’s not about how tall the guy is.
    0:16:34 It’s about how they make you feel.
    0:16:48 And so her dating like a scientist moment would be changing her filters on the app, dating some men who are shorter, seeing if she can feel attracted to them and attractive with them, and then understanding it wasn’t height that was the deal breaker.
    0:16:53 It was confidence or how attracted she was to them and how attractive they made her.
    0:16:56 That six feet thing is like such a killer.
    0:16:59 I’m like 5’11 and three quarters.
    0:17:00 It’s like, what do you do?
    0:17:02 Do you say six feet or do you do 5’11?
    0:17:05 In which case, every woman has this like six feet.
    0:17:07 The height thing is really interesting.
    0:17:20 So I would say over the last few years, the posts of mine that have gone the most viral are reels where I’ve posted about this stat because in the comments, you have a lot of women saying, well, guys lie about their height anyway.
    0:17:24 And then guys say things like, yeah, you should change the height filter.
    0:17:28 And then women say, well, you filter based on weight.
    0:17:32 And so anyway, it’s just really interesting to see how much this bothers people.
    0:17:45 And I wish that I could kind of shout from the rooftops to everyone and say, imagine that you were in a bar and you were sitting next to somebody and you’re both sitting on stools and you have a 45-minute conversation that is incredible.
    0:17:46 It’s deep.
    0:17:47 It’s soulful.
    0:17:48 It’s mind-blowing.
    0:17:53 And at the end of the date, the guy stands up and he’s 5’7.
    0:17:56 Are you telling me that you’re not giving him your number now?
    0:18:03 No, of course you’re going to give him your number because you just saw who this person was and what an incredible connection you had.
    0:18:06 And in that moment, you’re not thinking height first.
    0:18:08 You’re thinking connection first.
    0:18:17 And I really want people to change their framework and to understand, yes, the filters exist, but you are filtering out so many great potential connections.
    0:18:27 Why not date like a scientist, see if these things that you think are deal-breakers are really deal-breakers when most of the time they’re not and move them to the pet peeves or nice-to-have column.
    0:18:31 It strikes me as a difference between how we used to date and how we date now.
    0:18:34 So we used to date in a way that like a guy would call on you.
    0:18:36 You might not know him well.
    0:18:37 You might have friends.
    0:18:41 You might have met through your parents or something, but you don’t know much about him.
    0:18:43 And then you spend time with him.
    0:18:47 So your first impressions, but now we’re filtering before you even get to that point.
    0:18:50 We’re filtering based on a dating profile.
    0:18:51 We’re filtering based on pictures.
    0:18:53 We’re filtering based on politics.
    0:18:55 We’re filtering based on all of these things.
    0:18:58 I want to come back to the spark thing.
    0:19:00 Is there a difference between the spark and lust?
    0:19:06 I’ve thought about this a lot because, you know, when you write a book, you’re writing it alone.
    0:19:08 Maybe a few people read it and your editor reads it.
    0:19:12 And then when it’s out into the world, you really get to see what takes off with people.
    0:19:17 And so I would say a few things have taken off and one of them is this concept of fuck the spark.
    0:19:26 And so people have really strong reactions when I say that because they feel like, oh, Logan’s telling me I shouldn’t be attracted to the person or it doesn’t matter.
    0:19:27 Logan’s telling me to settle.
    0:19:33 Wait, I said fuck the spark and then I met someone I wasn’t interested in and I dated them for six months and it didn’t work out.
    0:19:37 And so I really want to talk about what the spark is.
    0:19:45 The spark is a huge emphasis on instant chemistry and instant connection versus allowing it to grow over time.
    0:19:48 I would say that lust is about attraction.
    0:19:52 And a lot of times, you know, I want to have sex with this person.
    0:19:54 I hope this person wants to have sex with me.
    0:19:59 And I think being sexually attracted to someone is, of course, something that you should look for in a relationship.
    0:20:07 But it’s slightly different from the spark, which is this overall feeling of like when I meet someone, I want to be around them more and more.
    0:20:14 And the big message I’m trying to get across here is that that feeling of chemistry can grow over time.
    0:20:21 What should a first date look like to maximize information gathering or connection, I guess?
    0:20:26 Yeah, you know, I will even push on that question and say, I don’t think it’s about information gathering.
    0:20:29 Imagine that you spend 50 years with someone.
    0:20:35 The day that you meet is 0.0055% of your total time with them.
    0:20:39 And so it’s not about gathering information.
    0:20:41 It’s about having an experience with them.
    0:20:48 So one thing that I’ve done through my research is look at people who are consistently getting asked on second or third dates.
    0:20:52 Look at people who people really are drawn to.
    0:20:55 And when I talk to these people, it’s not what you might think.
    0:20:56 They’re the tallest people.
    0:20:57 They’re the hottest people.
    0:20:59 It’s often that they’re very fun.
    0:21:12 They meet up with you on a date and they tell you a funny story or they have a silly interaction with the bartender or they tell you about what happened at work that day and the funny situation that they got into.
    0:21:15 There’s something about them that’s very vibrant and lively.
    0:21:21 And when people are around them, they feel like they are also having an experience.
    0:21:22 They’re not just exchanging information.
    0:21:31 And so I think if we think that a first date is really about I need to leave and know your biography, that’s not really fun for either person.
    0:21:38 If it instead shifts to what I was talking about, our first date is about seeing how does it feel to be around the person?
    0:21:40 What side of me do they bring out?
    0:21:42 Those dates end up being so much more successful.
    0:21:49 Because even if they don’t lead to a relationship, they lead to you knowing how would it feel to be with this person.
    0:21:50 I like that a lot.
    0:21:57 What are the indicators that I should be looking for on a date that would lead to emotional connection?
    0:22:05 So one thing that I’ve looked at a lot is this idea of what matters more and less than we think for long-term relationship success.
    0:22:11 So a lot of the things that people think matter more than they do include things like looks and money.
    0:22:13 So, of course, looks matters.
    0:22:15 We just talked about lust.
    0:22:17 You want to feel attracted to the person.
    0:22:26 But I wouldn’t give anyone the advice of try to date or marry the hottest person that you’ve ever met or the person maybe who you’ve had the hottest sex with in your life.
    0:22:41 And so if you think about some of the most beautiful celebrities in the world, there are often people kind of known to humanity who have cheated on them.
    0:22:51 And so it’s like if even these people that are considered the most attractive by cultural standards are being cheated on, there’s this idea that people adapt over time to somebody’s looks.
    0:22:55 And even if someone’s really attractive, we’ll get used to that over time.
    0:22:57 The same thing is true with money.
    0:23:00 I know this amount of money has changed over the last few years.
    0:23:04 But, you know, they used to say happiness doesn’t change over $75,000.
    0:23:06 Now I think they’ve raised it.
    0:23:09 But it’s this idea that whatever amount of money you have, you get used to.
    0:23:13 A few more things that matter less than people think they do.
    0:23:16 So people think, we need to have all the same hobbies.
    0:23:19 If I love wine, I want someone who loves wine too.
    0:23:22 And you don’t actually have to share the same hobbies.
    0:23:28 You just need to support the other person’s hobbies and have them support yours so that you can continue investing in that hobby.
    0:23:31 And you don’t have to have the same personality.
    0:23:34 Sometimes people will say, I have a big personality.
    0:23:35 I love to go out.
    0:23:37 I want to find a woman who does the same thing.
    0:23:39 And I’m like, no way.
    0:23:44 Two of you in a room, two of you at a dinner party, two of you in a relationship, that’s way too much.
    0:23:47 I want you to find somebody who grounds you.
    0:23:51 And it’s often about being complimentary versus being the same.
    0:23:55 So that was really the category of matters less than we think it does.
    0:23:58 For the things that matter more than people think they do.
    0:24:00 So the first one is loyalty.
    0:24:03 Really, is this somebody who will stick by you?
    0:24:06 Of course, that’s a hard thing to find out on a first date.
    0:24:15 But one proxy for that that I found is asking people about old friendships, people who have friendships from different phases of their life.
    0:24:16 Do they hang on to people?
    0:24:18 Or when they move, do they let those go?
    0:24:21 Or are they social climbing and always trying to trade up?
    0:24:25 So does this person keep friends from different phases of their lives?
    0:24:27 Another one is emotional stability.
    0:24:30 And that’s also hard to figure out on a first date.
    0:24:33 But how does this person deal with adversity?
    0:24:36 How does this person deal with frustrations?
    0:24:41 Are they somebody who can sort of pause and think before they react?
    0:24:45 Another one is the ability to make hard decisions together.
    0:24:49 So early in dating, you’re maybe not making a lot of hard decisions together.
    0:24:52 But pay attention to how you talk about things.
    0:24:58 Like if one person wants to meet up near their house and the other person wants to meet up near their house, are you debating it?
    0:24:59 Are you compromising it?
    0:25:01 Are they listening to your needs?
    0:25:06 There’s so many ways to really perceive who someone is if you’re actually looking for these things.
    0:25:14 And then the one that I’ve been talking about, which is what side of you they bring out, and really thinking about the dynamic itself.
    0:25:22 And that understanding that a relationship is not about two instruments on their own, but it’s about the music that you’re making together.
    0:25:30 And really paying attention to almost this third object of the dynamic between the two of you, as opposed to just who that person is on their own.
    0:25:36 I had a friend who made this comment, well, we just adjust to what we have.
    0:25:41 And then we kind of like we are human, so we yearn for something different than what we have.
    0:25:46 Yeah, my husband is very scientific, and he’s worked in a lot of different labs.
    0:25:58 And when we first started dating early on, he said some quote to me, or he was telling me about some study, which is like there’s a male rat in a cage, and they put in a female rat.
    0:26:03 And at first they have sex, but over time the male rat gets sick of having sex with that female rat.
    0:26:12 But then if you keep replacing the rat with new female rats, that male rat will have sex with those female rats until it literally passes out from exhaustion.
    0:26:17 And so it’s just this idea of, yes, a lot of what is sexually exciting to people is novelty.
    0:26:26 And so instead of being disappointed or frustrated by that in a monogamous long-term relationship, you can just think about the fact that I acknowledge that that will happen.
    0:26:34 And so I’m not going to spend all of my, you know, partner choosing coins just on looks because that’s not a good long-term strategy.
    0:26:40 Do you think we’ve sort of broken dating in a way where, I mean, I’ve been on dates with people.
    0:26:43 We all know people who are, I wish people would come up to me and ask me out.
    0:26:45 I wish I didn’t have to use a dating app.
    0:26:53 And my defense of, you know, thinking immediately in this is like society has taught guys not to approach women anymore.
    0:26:54 What’s your reaction to that?
    0:26:59 This is something that I’m thinking about a lot, specifically with Gen Z and Gen Alpha.
    0:27:07 So I was recently speaking to somebody, she’s a 16-year-old entrepreneur, and she’s trying to deliver help for teen daters.
    0:27:12 And she said by far the number one thing that she gets questions about is how to deal with rejection.
    0:27:31 And so I am genuinely concerned that because of different societal factors, because of people who maybe lost out on some social skills during the pandemic, because of people who live a lot of their lives online, there is not that rejection resilience that many of us need in life.
    0:27:36 So if you want your dream job, you need to go out there, get a lot of no’s, and go after it.
    0:27:40 You don’t just sit at home waiting for a LinkedIn recruiter to message you about your dream job.
    0:27:42 That doesn’t happen.
    0:27:43 You have to make it happen.
    0:27:48 And the same thing is true with dating, is that you have to shoot your shot.
    0:27:49 You have to approach people in public.
    0:27:51 You have to take a risk.
    0:27:59 And so I’m encountering a lot of people who are very afraid of rejection and are not taking those risks.
    0:28:01 And I think that it’s leading to fewer relationships.
    0:28:04 I’m a make it happen kind of person.
    0:28:04 I can tell.
    0:28:11 In work and in life, I also know that that can come off as aggressive or assertive.
    0:28:13 How do you deal with that?
    0:28:14 That’s interesting.
    0:28:17 So what’s a scenario that you feel like could come across the wrong way?
    0:28:23 Well, make it happen is like you have a great first date or something, and then you’re instantly like on to the next date.
    0:28:25 You know, you’re like, I want to see you again.
    0:28:26 How about tomorrow?
    0:28:29 And then the other person, I don’t know.
    0:28:34 Like, I feel like we’re just in a society now where, you know, you’re supposed to wait till tomorrow almost.
    0:28:37 And I hate personally waiting.
    0:28:39 I’m sure there’s other people out there like me, too.
    0:28:41 Where it’s like, no, you’re in charge.
    0:28:42 You have agency.
    0:28:44 And you can make the world happen.
    0:28:53 I love this question because I think it speaks to a really real phenomenon where people are experiencing excitement about somebody, but they feel like they need to hold it back to seem cool.
    0:28:57 And so I love to talk to people about attachment theory.
    0:28:59 Has that come up on your podcast before?
    0:29:00 No, let’s go into it.
    0:29:00 Okay.
    0:29:06 So attachment theory is something in the world of relationship science that’s truly backed by the research.
    0:29:11 It’s something that first came about around 60 years ago with someone named John Bowlby.
    0:29:17 And this research was originally done with children to see their attachments to their primary caregiver.
    0:29:21 But now we have an entire field of adult attachment specifically around relationships.
    0:29:25 And so there are people who are anxiously attached.
    0:29:31 What happens for them is their story of love is that I’m going to chase you.
    0:29:33 I have to convince you to like me.
    0:29:34 You might pull away.
    0:29:42 And we’re going to have this chase dynamic and that I’m constantly worried that you’re not going to be interested in me and you’re going to disappear.
    0:29:49 So how those people show up in relationships, and I know because I really was one of these daters, is if you don’t hear back from somebody, you start spiraling.
    0:29:50 They met somebody else.
    0:29:51 They don’t like me anymore.
    0:29:54 You send a bunch of texts to try to reconnect with them.
    0:30:01 And you’re often just in this danger zone where you’re not being the person that you want to be because you’re trying to have this reconnection moment.
    0:30:03 You think somebody is going to pull away.
    0:30:05 Then there’s people who are avoid and attached.
    0:30:08 They sort of have the opposite experience.
    0:30:11 Their version of love is I’m going to be smothered.
    0:30:12 I’m going to lose my independence.
    0:30:17 And when they get too close to somebody, they are the ones pulling away.
    0:30:20 So they’re the ones, you know, great sleepover on a Saturday night.
    0:30:21 Sunday morning, they wake up.
    0:30:22 The person hasn’t left.
    0:30:25 And they’re like, damn, should I call her an Uber?
    0:30:26 Oh, my God.
    0:30:26 That’s me.
    0:30:27 That’s you?
    0:30:27 Yeah.
    0:30:30 You have that feeling of like, I need my space.
    0:30:32 Well, I need my space and I don’t want to get hurt.
    0:30:34 There’s like an element of vulnerability.
    0:30:35 Absolutely.
    0:30:37 What you’re talking about is complete true.
    0:30:40 It’s not that those people don’t want to be in intimate connection.
    0:30:45 It’s that the fear of being smothered or the fear of being hurt causes them to pull away.
    0:30:48 I’m going to reject you before you reject me.
    0:31:01 And so for those avoidant attached people who think that they’re going to be smothered, and then for the anxiously attached people who think they’re going to be abandoned, what ends up happening is they often date each other and they reinforce this idea.
    0:31:03 So I think that love is a chase.
    0:31:05 You think that love is being smothered.
    0:31:07 So when I go after you, you pull away.
    0:31:09 That reinforces mine and that reinforces yours.
    0:31:16 And anxious, attached, and avoidant people keep dating each other in this anxious, avoidant loop that leaves both people feeling pretty unhappy.
    0:31:20 But there’s a third type of securely attached people.
    0:31:26 And these are people who have a healthy relationship with independence and with intimacy.
    0:31:30 I want to be close to you, but I also respect and need my alone time.
    0:31:39 And so often the way that people get out of the anxious, avoidant loop is they either become more secure themselves or they date someone who’s secure.
    0:31:50 And so that’s what happened for me after, you know, 10 years of chasing after different people, being rejected, being disappointed, thinking, well, if only I could prove my value, then this guy would like me.
    0:31:59 Instead, when I dated somebody who was secure, it broke a lot of those patterns, and we formed what I feel like is my first really healthy relationship.
    0:32:09 What happens is 50% of the population is secure, which sounds like a good thing, but those people are so good at being in relationships that they often get snatched up and you have the anxious and avoidant people dating each other.
    0:32:18 But in the example that you described, it can actually be very secure for somebody to follow up after a date and say, hey, I really enjoyed getting to know you.
    0:32:19 I’d love to see you again.
    0:32:21 When are you free?
    0:32:29 And in that moment, somebody who’s used to dating somebody who’s avoidant might be like, whoa, they’re coming on too strong or that’s so obvious.
    0:32:30 They’re so obviously interested.
    0:32:31 That’s boring.
    0:32:41 But a ton of the work that I do is training people to identify secure partners and to reestablish them in their heads, not as boring, but as secure.
    0:32:54 So sometimes that person who pulls away is exciting, that sparky feeling because you don’t know if they like you or not, but instead really honoring the person who says, I like you.
    0:32:55 I’m interested.
    0:32:56 When can I see you again?
    0:33:01 And so the slight tweak that I would have to yours is not, I like you, can I see you tomorrow?
    0:33:06 That does kind of feel a little bit intense, but being clear about like, hey, that was a really great date.
    0:33:07 I feel like we really connected.
    0:33:09 I’d love to see you again.
    0:33:13 And then like working together to come up with the next date.
    0:33:20 And a lot of dating that people miss is that it’s about matching somebody’s momentum and matching somebody’s speed.
    0:33:25 So it’s a dance where I take a step forward and then you need to take a step forward.
    0:33:29 If I take 10 steps forward, you might feel overwhelmed and take a step back.
    0:33:32 So just paying attention to, are you always the one reaching out?
    0:33:34 Are you always the one making plans?
    0:33:39 There needs to be momentum matching for the speed to feel right to both people.
    0:33:44 So last year, I realized something was getting in the way of myself.
    0:33:47 What sparked this in our conversation was freedom.
    0:33:54 And so I decided to do therapy for the first time as my adult life as a single person.
    0:33:58 I did marriage counseling as well before my divorce.
    0:34:05 But it was so fascinating to me because one of the things that led to this was I wouldn’t accept compliments from people.
    0:34:13 The minute somebody started to say something positive, my brain would turn off and I would instantly move to the groceries.
    0:34:14 What’s next in the conversation?
    0:34:16 I’d stop listening.
    0:34:29 And what came out of this is that compliments in my body, I had somehow associated compliments with power over me because at some point they were taken away.
    0:34:33 And so it was like, I’ll compliment you as long as you do what I want.
    0:34:36 And then all of a sudden, and so I would associate these things.
    0:34:41 And so I developed this really strong aversion to people having power over me.
    0:34:59 And so loss of freedom is a great example of like how that manifests itself in dating where it’s like, no, like that’s really hard in dating context because I default to the state of I want to continue to do the things that I’m doing in the way I’m continuing to do them.
    0:35:06 And that makes it really hard to find somebody and build a life together and adapt to each other.
    0:35:08 That’s super interesting.
    0:35:22 So for the compliments, was it that you grew up in a home where there was a strong sense of external validation if you did the right thing and then you felt like you constantly had to please someone and the compliments were a sign that you were doing the right thing.
    0:35:25 But then they could be taken away if you didn’t do the right thing.
    0:35:27 I don’t quite know.
    0:35:29 A lot of people remember a ton about their childhood.
    0:35:30 Yeah.
    0:35:30 I don’t.
    0:35:34 I remember certain moments and like not a lot before grade eight, to be honest with you.
    0:35:38 And I was like, I got into a ton of trouble as a kid.
    0:35:39 I was a bit of a misfit.
    0:35:44 But the thing that I learned at a very young age was just not to pay attention to them.
    0:35:50 See, because that could also be a positive thing where you have an internal locus of control that’s not looking to other people.
    0:35:54 Like even my daughter is one and she started doing this toy.
    0:36:00 Maybe you remember it where it’s like, you know, there’s a stick and then you put the different round things on top of it.
    0:36:04 And when she does it, every time she puts one on, she claps and she doesn’t even smile.
    0:36:07 She just thinks that that’s part of how the toy works.
    0:36:10 You put it on and then you clap for yourself because when she does it, we clap for her.
    0:36:18 I was like, she’s a brand new human in the world and she’s already learning that she’s doing things for external validation.
    0:36:23 Or it’s the clapping to me is really bothering me where I’m like, we’re not going to clap anymore.
    0:36:28 We cannot reward her for every single thing because then she will be doing it for us and not for herself.
    0:36:33 And so it’s so interesting that compliments shut you down.
    0:36:34 Well, they used to.
    0:36:37 I’ve done much better since then at sort of being vulnerable.
    0:36:39 Like I never wanted to be vulnerable.
    0:36:49 I would get to this point and this goes back to the attachment styles is I needed to feel like somebody else couldn’t hurt me or take something away because I’m giving them power over me in a way.
    0:36:50 Power to hurt me.
    0:36:51 I don’t know.
    0:36:52 I’m messed up.
    0:36:53 If you’re listening to this, like.
    0:37:09 I’m just going to push this topic because I think it’s so interesting, but on my first date with my husband, he told me that when people tease him or troll him or it actually makes him feel very close to them because something inside of him was like, oh, I’m a piece of shit.
    0:37:15 So if somebody like, if somebody sort of like calls that out, it makes him feel known.
    0:37:16 And like, I don’t know.
    0:37:17 It’s like you see me.
    0:37:36 Yeah, so I don’t know that that happens all the time, but like it is something that I’ve seen with certain people who are maybe more powerful or dominant is that when somebody actually calls them out on stuff, it makes them feel like, oh, I can trust that person because they see my flaws and they know from the beginning what my flaws are.
    0:37:40 I don’t have to put up a front of seeming perfect all the time and then disappointing them.
    0:37:48 Like this is a whole rabbit hole of like, I don’t want to let somebody in because if they knew the real me, then they would reject me.
    0:37:49 Yeah, totally.
    0:37:53 If you saw all of me, then you wouldn’t, I’m not lovable is effectively what you’re.
    0:37:59 That is such a big part of the work that I do is this idea of people come to me and they think I’m undateable.
    0:38:00 Yeah.
    0:38:01 Do you feel that way?
    0:38:03 Generally, yeah.
    0:38:04 You feel undateable.
    0:38:05 Well, I feel unlovable.
    0:38:06 Like I do feel like.
    0:38:07 Yeah, let’s use those words synonymously.
    0:38:17 If somebody saw all of me and could see my inner monologue and just had like full access to me, then they wouldn’t love me, of course.
    0:38:21 I think that’s extremely common and it has different ways that it comes up.
    0:38:25 So some people say to me, you know, I have a chronic illness.
    0:38:26 I’m unlovable.
    0:38:28 I have an STI.
    0:38:29 I’m unlovable.
    0:38:30 I’ve never been in a relationship.
    0:38:31 I’m unlovable.
    0:38:33 I’ve been in too many relationships.
    0:38:33 I’m unlovable.
    0:38:39 And so many people have this inner narrative around how if somebody really, really knew them, they wouldn’t love them.
    0:38:47 And what’s so hard for people to understand is like it’s often that vulnerability and that imperfection that connects people.
    0:38:51 Because I think about friends of mine or people I know who come across as perfect.
    0:38:56 And I’m like, you have such a glossy exterior that there’s nothing for me to grab onto.
    0:39:06 Actually need cracks in the wall to grasp onto and to have a connection with you and to feel like I can be my full imperfect self.
    0:39:12 And so it’s like the thing that we think makes us unlovable is often what makes somebody feel comfortable around us.
    0:39:18 But if we truly feel like we’re unlovable, we never open up and give somebody the chance to see that for themselves.
    0:39:25 I want to come back to sort of dating just a little bit and profiles, like how you end up on a first date.
    0:39:31 One thing that I think everybody does these days is they Google the other person.
    0:39:35 And for whatever reason, I mean, people think this doesn’t happen.
    0:39:36 I don’t know why.
    0:39:41 Like you can upload photos from dating websites and find out who the person is fairly easily.
    0:39:44 How does that work for you and against you?
    0:39:46 It’s so interesting.
    0:39:58 So there’s research on the brain that shows when our brain gets an incomplete picture of something, we fill in the gaps in a way that makes it more positive.
    0:40:03 So have you ever seen a black and white photo of yourself and think, oh, I look pretty good in that?
    0:40:05 I’ve never seen a photo of myself where I think I look pretty good.
    0:40:12 Okay, well, take a photo of yourself and make it black and white and you might be like, huh, I’m looking pretty good there.
    0:40:19 And the point is that by taking out the color and actually some of the information, our brain fills in the gap and it actually often looks more attractive than it does.
    0:40:22 The same thing happens on dating app profiles.
    0:40:27 So if somebody says, I love music, our brains fill in the gap and think, oh, they love music.
    0:40:28 You know, I really like hip hop.
    0:40:30 I bet they like the same music that I do.
    0:40:34 And with this incomplete picture, we start building up this fantasy in our head.
    0:40:45 And that’s why people get into this really bad situation where they start talking to somebody and they’re almost pen palling and having all these text conversations and building up this fantasy.
    0:40:50 And by the time they meet in person, that person’s great, but they’re not the fantasy you had in your head.
    0:40:54 And so you reject them because they’re different from who you thought they were.
    0:40:58 And that’s why it’s so important that people get to the date faster.
    0:41:06 Honestly, meet on Hinge and a few days later, we’ve actually found that the sweet spot is after three days of chatting, just say, hey, I always walk my dog at 6 p.m.
    0:41:10 Can I give you a phone call or do you want to FaceTime for a few minutes tonight?
    0:41:23 And instead of turning the digital courtship phase into this weeks-long thing, make it much shorter, get on the phone, get on FaceTime, see if you have a connection, and then meet up in person as quickly as possible.
    0:41:35 And so I actually think the point is to learn who the person is by talking to them directly versus either having your brain fill in the gaps or doing all this external research that might be incorrect or outdated.
    0:41:38 So two rabbit holes I want to go down here.
    0:41:39 Well, actually, one comment.
    0:41:42 It’s interesting that you said we fill in our own gaps.
    0:41:48 Matthew Dix, who’s like the Olympic storytelling champion of the world effectively, was on the podcast.
    0:41:55 And one of the things that you said that just triggered this is when he was describing, he’s like, I describe but vaguely.
    0:41:57 So everybody sees their own thing.
    0:42:06 If I say kitchen floor, I don’t describe like green linoleum tiles because the minute I say that, people might have a hard time picturing it.
    0:42:09 But everybody knows what their kitchen floor is.
    0:42:12 So he used this example of I’m in the back of my school.
    0:42:14 My back is up against the wall.
    0:42:20 And he’s like, it doesn’t matter what my school looks like because everybody has this own image of their school.
    0:42:22 And I don’t know why, but I connected those two things.
    0:42:25 Just to comment on that, like, I definitely want to listen to that episode.
    0:42:27 Was it an episode you recorded with him?
    0:42:27 Yes.
    0:42:31 Because I’d love to learn from that because, you know, a big part of my job is communicating.
    0:42:37 And it’s so true that stories are really the filing system of our brain.
    0:42:37 Totally.
    0:42:41 And I was thinking last night about the story of the boy who cried wolf.
    0:42:51 And I was like, it’s so smart that we teach kids fables because if somebody had sat me down and said, if you raise a lot of false alarms when it’s a real alarm, no one’s going to listen.
    0:42:53 Like, I wouldn’t remember it.
    0:42:54 But the boy who cried wolf, it’s so memorable.
    0:43:01 It’s like that’s why we have these oral storytelling traditions and even, like, you know, why the Bible is the greatest meme of all time.
    0:43:03 People really remember these stories.
    0:43:13 And so that is a good tip that I’m going to use, which is, you know, you want to be speaking about visuals, but maybe vague enough details that people can insert their own version of the kitchen floor.
    0:43:14 I love that.
    0:43:17 You should listen to the episode I did with Becky Kennedy, too.
    0:43:22 She talks about how she made up stories to teach her kids lessons.
    0:43:23 That’s really cool.
    0:43:24 Which it is so powerful.
    0:43:26 It’s such a power because we remember stories.
    0:43:27 We don’t remember facts.
    0:43:27 Not at all.
    0:43:27 We don’t remember digits.
    0:43:31 And that’s actually part of dating advice that I give people.
    0:43:35 So, you know, I have people who come in who are amazing communicators, really charming.
    0:43:39 They just kind of have a few things holding them back from connecting, and we work on that.
    0:43:42 I have other people who come in who have never been on a date in their life.
    0:43:47 From that starting point, we really have to start talking about, like, how do you have a good conversation?
    0:43:54 And so one of the key ideas there, you basically just said these words, is share stories, not facts.
    0:43:56 And so what’s an example of that?
    0:43:58 Well, a fact would be that you have a younger brother.
    0:44:03 A story would be your younger brother lives across the country from you.
    0:44:04 You haven’t met your niece yet.
    0:44:08 You feel sad about the lack of connection with that person.
    0:44:12 And one of your resolutions is to really get closer to your brother.
    0:44:20 And so I think oftentimes when people are less experienced with first date conversations, they share the facts about their lives.
    0:44:22 And it’s not memorable and it’s boring.
    0:44:29 And really think about the emotions and the feelings and the stories behind those facts because that’s what a good conversation is.
    0:44:34 Walk me through a little bit more about good conversations on a first date.
    0:44:47 I think a lot of people tend to just have this list of questions almost that they’re like, it doesn’t quite feel like an interview, but it kind of feels like an interview on the same token.
    0:44:48 How do you get out of that?
    0:44:49 Okay, let’s think of examples.
    0:44:55 So I think a bad question would be, what did you study in college?
    0:44:59 I think then you’re just finding out about a fact about somebody about their major.
    0:45:08 I think a good question would be something like, oh, you just told me that your job was a marketing manager for this tech company.
    0:45:11 Like, how is that different from what you thought it would be?
    0:45:16 Or can you see yourself doing that for a long time?
    0:45:18 Or like, what changes would you want to make to it?
    0:45:19 And that one might be a little interviewee.
    0:45:27 But I think the point is that if you go on a first date and you’re information seeking, then what you will get is facts.
    0:45:32 If you go on a date and you’re connection seeking, then what you will get are stories.
    0:45:33 I like that.
    0:45:35 That’s a good way to do it.
    0:45:39 One of the things you brought up was having a phone call first.
    0:45:41 Is that like the recommended protocol?
    0:45:41 Yeah.
    0:45:47 So before the pandemic, I did not like the idea of video dates or phone calls before a first date.
    0:45:51 To me, it triggered this idea of like a tech job and a phone screen.
    0:45:55 Like that 15-minute call with the Google recruiter to see if you’re crazy or not.
    0:46:01 And I felt like it was going to create too much of a feeling of, okay, I saw who you were.
    0:46:02 I’m not interested in you.
    0:46:03 I’m out.
    0:46:07 But during the pandemic, that was the only way that people could really date for a while.
    0:46:12 And so there was this proliferation of video chats or phone dates.
    0:46:18 And I actually felt like they were a great technique for people to just see, can we hold a conversation?
    0:46:19 Are they who they say they are?
    0:46:23 It makes people feel more safe before meeting up for the first time.
    0:46:33 It helps people who are really busy, like executives or single parents, feel like, is this somebody who I want to get a babysitter for in order to meet up with them?
    0:46:36 And so now I actually think that it’s a really helpful technique for a lot of people.
    0:46:38 And what do you cover on that call?
    0:46:39 Like say it’s 15 minutes.
    0:46:45 Like you’re just trying to get a feel for the person, like the awkwardness or like what do you?
    0:46:51 Yeah, you know, I think that you could start the conversation and just start talking about your day.
    0:47:00 So, for example, I like to tell people about this concept of in media res, which is a Latin term that means in the middle of things.
    0:47:11 So a play might open up in the middle of a battle scene and then it sort of zooms out and later you find out who’s in the battle, why are they in the battle, what’s going on.
    0:47:14 But it really just captures your attention right away.
    0:47:22 And so you could enter a date or a phone call and say, hey, I’m Logan, this is where I live, this is what I do.
    0:47:24 I’m like, I’m already asleep just talking about this.
    0:47:35 But instead, if you walk in there and you say, so my sister called me this weekend and she’s having this issue at work and she told me this, but I thought that she was handling it the wrong way.
    0:47:36 What do you think about that?
    0:47:43 It’s like, boom, we’re friends, we’re having an experience, I’m hearing how you think, I’m hearing if you give good advice, I’m learning about you.
    0:47:49 I’m not trying to glean information from you and facts about your life.
    0:47:52 I’m truly trying to get to know you as a person and how you think.
    0:48:01 And I feel like for me as someone who’s been with my partner for 10 years, who has a new baby, so much of my life is how my partner thinks.
    0:48:03 That influences my life.
    0:48:05 That influences the decisions we make together.
    0:48:07 It influences whether or not I trust him.
    0:48:21 So I really think just creating these conversational dynamics where we’re expressing ourselves, we’re responding to situations, we’re not just repeating the same tape in our head that we press play on in every boring first date.
    0:48:26 That, to me, is so much more fun and provides such deeper information.
    0:48:27 No, I love that.
    0:48:32 I want to, like, also come back, we’re sort of in a rabbit hole here a little bit, to attachment.
    0:48:40 You know, I feel like I’ve taken steps individually towards more secure and away from avoidant attachment.
    0:48:52 What are the things that we can do, short of finding a partner who’s safe and secure, that reinforces the best in us and gives us patience and tolerance for the worst in us?
    0:48:56 What are the things that people can do individually to put themselves in a better place?
    0:49:01 And, you know, you don’t have to make that leap overnight, but what are the steps that we can take to get to a better place?
    0:49:11 Right. So people do tend to have one attachment style, and it’s a mixture of genetics and how they were raised, but around 25% of people are able to shift their attachment over time.
    0:49:15 So if you are insecurely attached, there is hope.
    0:49:19 It’s not just, oh, I need to find one of those securely attached people that’s already in a relationship.
    0:49:26 So for people who are anxiously attached, it’s really important to understand triggers for you.
    0:49:33 So a trigger for somebody who’s anxiously attached might be, I text the person I’m seeing all day, but I just sent them a meme.
    0:49:35 They usually respond to that right away.
    0:49:37 They haven’t responded in four hours.
    0:49:37 Okay.
    0:49:39 So a trigger was not hearing back from somebody.
    0:49:50 What usually happens in that moment is you sort of go down into the danger zone, and you start, you know, texting them a bunch of times.
    0:49:51 Hey, what happened?
    0:49:52 Or you spiral in your head.
    0:49:54 They don’t like me anymore.
    0:49:55 They met somebody else.
    0:49:58 When I said this thing two days ago, they thought it was super weird, and they’re pulling back.
    0:50:07 And then they sort of do these behaviors to try to reconnect with the person, which can really turn the other person off.
    0:50:14 And so instead, set yourself up for success by not getting to the danger zone in the first place.
    0:50:19 So when you feel like, oh, no, they didn’t respond to my text, what are other things you could do?
    0:50:24 So you could text a friend and distract yourself with the conversation with them.
    0:50:28 You could even tell a friend, oh, this is what I’m feeling, and, you know, make me feel better about it.
    0:50:29 Give me a pep talk.
    0:50:30 You can give yourself a pep talk.
    0:50:33 There’s this concept called disconfirming evidence.
    0:50:38 So basically explaining to yourself, no, they just have a busy day.
    0:50:39 They’re at that conference.
    0:50:41 They told me that they weren’t going to be in touch.
    0:50:43 Why am I jumping to conclusions?
    0:50:45 Let me just wait and see what happens.
    0:50:52 And so there’s different things that you can do to sort of catch yourself before you start doing those protest behavior things,
    0:50:55 like sending a million texts or calling them and then turning your phone off.
    0:50:58 For avoid and attach people, it’s the same thing.
    0:51:04 The danger zone is when you feel really overcome by them and that you’re losing your independence,
    0:51:07 and you might notice strategies that happen for you.
    0:51:09 So with anxiously attached people, it’s activating strategies,
    0:51:13 and with avoid and attach people, it’s deactivating strategies.
    0:51:16 So in your head, you start thinking, oh, they’re not really that cute.
    0:51:20 I’m not interested in them, or I can’t believe she pronounced that word that way.
    0:51:20 She must not be that smart.
    0:51:23 So it’s almost like you’re giving yourself a reason why you don’t like them to push away.
    0:51:25 I wonder if you ever do that.
    0:51:26 Oh, totally.
    0:51:26 Yeah.
    0:51:33 And so instead, what to do in those moments is to really realize that you need space and just ask for it.
    0:51:37 So for example, if you have that Saturday night sleepover and Sunday you want your space,
    0:51:40 you can just say, I had so much fun last night.
    0:51:44 I actually have a big project at work tomorrow that I was going to spend the majority of today on.
    0:51:47 Let’s make plans for seeing each other later this week.
    0:51:51 So you are creating that space for yourself.
    0:51:55 You’re not assuming that they are a mind reader and they know that you don’t want to spend the day together,
    0:51:58 but you’re basically stopping the problem before it starts.
    0:51:59 I want to come back.
    0:52:00 You said texting.
    0:52:03 What are the rules around texting and dating?
    0:52:04 What do you think the rules are?
    0:52:05 I don’t know.
    0:52:06 What are they?
    0:52:07 Do you think you’re a good texter?
    0:52:09 No, I don’t think so.
    0:52:12 What do you think you could work on in your texting?
    0:52:13 With anybody?
    0:52:15 Or in dating, if you’re actively dating.
    0:52:19 Just communicating better, I think.
    0:52:22 I’m of an era where I don’t pick up the phone.
    0:52:22 Okay.
    0:52:28 And so, like, I think I’ve answered, like, five phone calls in the past, like, two years.
    0:52:28 Really?
    0:52:29 And they’re all from my mom.
    0:52:30 We’ve had a phone call.
    0:52:30 I know.
    0:52:31 Was that shocking?
    0:52:33 You know, unless it’s scheduled.
    0:52:35 Like, if it’s unscheduled.
    0:52:35 True, true.
    0:52:37 I just don’t really answer the phone.
    0:52:43 And I try to communicate over text, but sometimes nuance doesn’t come across.
    0:52:48 I’m a visual person, so, like, when I make a joke, I usually, like, do something funny
    0:52:49 with my face.
    0:52:49 Yeah.
    0:52:53 But over text, that can come off as, like, very dry or cold.
    0:52:56 Because there’s no emotion attached to it.
    0:52:57 No emoji sometimes.
    0:53:01 It’s just, like, a dry, almost sense of humor or very pointed.
    0:53:03 Are you a voice note guy?
    0:53:04 Sometimes.
    0:53:06 I do feel like that helps with sense of humor.
    0:53:07 Yeah, totally.
    0:53:08 So, it gets better.
    0:53:09 But, like, what are the rules around text?
    0:53:09 Yeah.
    0:53:14 Like, and by rules, I mean, like, okay, if you’ve sent two texts and you haven’t got a reply,
    0:53:16 like, are you, you got to wait?
    0:53:17 Is it, like, there’s three?
    0:53:18 Is it five?
    0:53:19 Is it six?
    0:53:21 Is it one for one at the start?
    0:53:23 Like, what is the etiquette around this?
    0:53:27 So, one of my favorite projects I’ve done over the last five years was a big Gen Z research
    0:53:34 project at Hinge, where I followed this group of international Gen Z daters for around six months.
    0:53:38 And one of the things that came out of it was this idea of digital body language.
    0:53:41 The fact that we talk a lot about body language, right?
    0:53:43 I’m sure this is something that you’ve thought about in your own life.
    0:53:47 So, if I’m sitting forward, I am really interested in what you’re saying.
    0:53:49 If I’m leaning back, I might feel defensive.
    0:53:51 Am I averting my eyes?
    0:53:56 And that your brain is subconsciously interpreting that as whether I’m a threat or whether I’m
    0:53:57 interested in you.
    0:54:04 And so, there’s a ton of digital body language, these unspoken cues as to my intentions.
    0:54:09 And so, the hard part about digital body language is we don’t all interpret it the same way.
    0:54:16 So, through this research, there was a woman, I remember, who said, if somebody says K instead
    0:54:18 of O-K, then she thinks they’re mad at them.
    0:54:23 And she’s like, specifically, I want them to say O-K-A-Y-Y-Y-Y.
    0:54:26 Which is like, who would know that that’s what she wants?
    0:54:27 But a K seems rude to her.
    0:54:29 Oh, it’s just like, sure.
    0:54:29 Sure.
    0:54:31 If you say sure to somebody, oh my God.
    0:54:34 If my sister says, got it, I’m like having a mini panic attack.
    0:54:35 Yeah.
    0:54:36 Because I’m like, you don’t got it.
    0:54:37 You’re mad at me.
    0:54:39 You’re just giving up on this conversation.
    0:54:41 So, I think we all have versions of that.
    0:54:47 But we did do research at Hinge looking at what are the most commonly agreed upon parts
    0:54:48 of digital body language.
    0:54:51 So, one of them is that actually the double text is okay.
    0:54:56 So, if I text you and, you know, we’re early dating and I say, hey, I’d love to hear about
    0:54:58 that show you were talking about.
    0:54:58 How was it?
    0:55:00 And then you don’t respond.
    0:55:02 I might feel like, oh, he’s not interested.
    0:55:04 I can never send another text.
    0:55:08 But sending one more text that either like follows up on it or says like, hey, do you want to
    0:55:09 go out this week?
    0:55:10 People don’t mind that.
    0:55:13 People are busy and they understand that sometimes messages get mixed.
    0:55:21 Another one is one word answers are seen as very rude or curt or the person’s not interested.
    0:55:27 So, if our text messages look like a lot of blue and a little bit of gray, there’s probably
    0:55:28 a problem there.
    0:55:32 And so, making sure that our messages seem pretty equal.
    0:55:35 This is kind of going back to the idea of I take a step forward, you take a step forward.
    0:55:37 Building the momentum together.
    0:55:44 The other thing that comes up around text messages and might surprise people how often people talk
    0:55:45 to me about texting.
    0:55:50 But a common thing that somebody might say is, I hate texting.
    0:55:52 I have a job where I keep my phone in my pocket.
    0:55:53 I love deep work.
    0:55:56 How can I tell somebody that I am interested in them?
    0:55:58 I just don’t like texting.
    0:56:03 Or the opposite, which is, I really love spending time with this guy in person, but he’s terrible
    0:56:04 over text.
    0:56:09 And so, the way that I’ve thought about it is, I think that you need to understand as a
    0:56:14 person the maximum amount of text that you’re willing to give and the minimum that you’re
    0:56:15 willing to take.
    0:56:21 And if the minimum that you need is not within somebody’s maximum, you may not be a fit.
    0:56:25 And it sounds so crazy because it’s like you’re really not going to date someone because of
    0:56:26 your texting styles.
    0:56:30 But look, that’s how a lot of people talk for a lot of the day.
    0:56:36 And like, as parents, as busy people, it’s like, I’m texting with my husband more than
    0:56:38 I’m really talking to him every single day.
    0:56:43 And so, you need to have some overlap in your minimum and their maximum.
    0:56:48 And so, you know, kind of a long-winded way of saying, I do think that texting styles are
    0:56:51 really important since that’s such a big part of digital courtship.
    0:56:57 And it’s really good to express to somebody what your texting style is and to maybe give
    0:56:57 them a heads up.
    0:57:03 Like, in the past, I found that sometimes people can’t read my tone over text just to
    0:57:03 let you know.
    0:57:08 Like, I’m not the biggest texter, but I will do my best to call you or just to make plans
    0:57:10 and don’t read too much into my texting.
    0:57:13 Okay, let’s come back to mind reading because you said that.
    0:57:19 And I’ve always had the opinion, I would say until maybe the last year, that if somebody
    0:57:25 knew me and liked me and wanted to be in my life, that they would be able to read my
    0:57:27 mind and know exactly what I was thinking.
    0:57:33 Talk to me about how that gets in the way in relationships and how we can be more comfortable
    0:57:37 just telling our partner or prospective partner what we want.
    0:57:42 It’s so funny because one of my closest friends in the world is a professional mentalist or
    0:57:42 a mind reader.
    0:57:45 And we lived together as roommates for a number of years.
    0:57:49 And it’s just, I love the concept of mind reading.
    0:57:51 And people would say, oh, you live with David.
    0:57:52 Like, what’s it like?
    0:57:54 Is he always reading your mind?
    0:57:58 And I would say, if he was always reading my mind, he would unload the dishwasher a lot
    0:57:59 more often.
    0:58:05 And so I just think it’s so funny how there’s this sense of, well, we’re close and you know
    0:58:07 me, so you must know what I want.
    0:58:11 And that’s something that I’ve personally worked on a lot in my life.
    0:58:17 So I’ve found that with a lot of my female friends, they get frustrated that their husbands
    0:58:20 or partners didn’t give them what they wanted for their birthday of, why didn’t they know
    0:58:21 I wanted a surprise party?
    0:58:26 And what I’d say to them is, it’s much more important to get what you want than to have
    0:58:30 the person guess what you want and then not get it right and be disappointed.
    0:58:37 So I feel like I try to be really explicit with my husband and say like, hey, like for
    0:58:39 Mother’s Day, like this is what would be a really great day for me.
    0:58:44 And like, it’s not like he always delivers on that, but I’m kind of sharing what matters
    0:58:44 to me.
    0:58:51 Or I have friends, one guy is an economist and they have a pretty complicated system, but it’s
    0:58:54 basically like when one of the people in the couple invites the other person to an event
    0:58:59 at their work, they’ll basically say how much it matters to them on a scale of, you
    0:59:03 know, zero to a hundred to basically say this invite, I care about it, 90 out of a hundred,
    0:59:04 please come.
    0:59:06 Or I care about it, 10 out of a hundred.
    0:59:07 If you don’t come, it doesn’t matter.
    0:59:14 And so I just think that if people get over this kind of romanticized idea of if you really
    0:59:19 knew me, you’d know what I want into what I think is much more romantic, which is I feel
    0:59:23 safe enough to tell you what I want and I hope that you’ll be able to honor it to the best
    0:59:23 of your ability.
    0:59:29 I have a theory that the people who expect unconsciously other people to be able to read
    0:59:34 their mind, they do that because they’re very good at reading other people’s minds, but not
    0:59:35 actually reading their mind.
    0:59:41 They’re just, they tend to be maybe more thoughtful or they pay attention to a lot more nuance or
    0:59:41 details.
    0:59:42 Do you think that’s true?
    0:59:45 I haven’t thought about that before, but it resonates with me.
    0:59:52 Something that I’m working on with my business coach is I make a lot of assumptions about what
    0:59:57 people want and then I get really nervous about saying something that I think will disappoint
    0:59:59 them and then I just avoid the conversation.
    1:00:03 But the feedback that I’m getting from my coach and from these people that I’m dealing with is
    1:00:06 you’re actually getting wrong what I want.
    1:00:10 And so by not having the conversation with me, you’re making decisions on my behalf.
    1:00:15 And if you actually just told me what was going on, we could come to a happy medium about
    1:00:15 it.
    1:00:20 But because you think you know what I want and then you want to avoid discomfort for me,
    1:00:21 you’re not even bringing it up.
    1:00:26 And so I think for me, the work that I’m doing there is to have uncomfortable conversations
    1:00:30 sooner instead of saying, well, I’m so good at knowing what everyone wants.
    1:00:35 I must be right and instead being more curious and asking them what’s going on.
    1:00:38 It’s kind of like a kind versus nice thing, right?
    1:00:43 Like a kind person will tell you you have spinach on your teeth, but a nice person won’t.
    1:00:45 Oh, I haven’t heard of that, but I do like that.
    1:00:49 And I absolutely resonate with that where I always want to be the person who’s telling somebody
    1:00:50 that there’s food in their teeth.
    1:00:56 And rather than finding that it embarrasses people, I find that especially like a first meeting that
    1:01:01 it really makes them feel closer to me because it’s like they feel comfortable enough to tell
    1:01:03 me the slightly embarrassing thing.
    1:01:05 Therefore, I am safe with them.
    1:01:06 Yeah, I like that a lot.
    1:01:12 I want to come to priorities in terms of life and dating, especially post, I don’t know, 30.
    1:01:14 A lot of people are divorced.
    1:01:15 Maybe they have kids.
    1:01:17 Not in San Francisco.
    1:01:19 I mean, fewer and fewer people have kids.
    1:01:24 I just feel like it’s like, you know, in San Francisco, 30 and single and dating is kind
    1:01:25 of the norm.
    1:01:30 OK, so but I mean, you’re at a point in your life where you have a lot of competing
    1:01:30 priorities.
    1:01:36 You could make an argument at the risk of offending people that having kids younger is better because
    1:01:40 you learn to be less selfish and that’s better for society.
    1:01:42 And all of a sudden, the world’s not about you.
    1:01:47 But if you go through your 20s, you can also make an argument that you tend to be more focused
    1:01:53 on your career and you have priorities and dating has to fit into those priorities.
    1:01:56 But it’s not the number one thing anymore.
    1:01:57 How do you think about priorities in dating?
    1:02:02 So many of the people that I work with are very career oriented.
    1:02:06 These maximizers who are trying to strategize their way through life.
    1:02:10 And oftentimes they come to me when they have been prioritizing their career for the last
    1:02:15 12 years and then are like, oh, wait, I’m not where I want to be relationship wise.
    1:02:21 And that’s why when I do get the opportunity to speak to younger people, I really encourage them start
    1:02:22 prioritizing dating when you’re younger.
    1:02:25 You have a more flexible lifestyle.
    1:02:30 You have a bigger population of single people to choose from.
    1:02:35 And, you know, in the last few years, as there’s been more and more layoffs, I feel like a lot
    1:02:40 of people have had the reality check of this company that I dedicated 10 years of my life
    1:02:44 to and that I missed a lot of dates because I had to travel for my job.
    1:02:45 Guess what?
    1:02:48 We were not in a long-term relationship.
    1:02:52 We were in a 10-year-long relationship and now I’m single and I don’t want to be.
    1:02:56 And so sometimes when I talk to people, it’s not just what do you want to add to your plate
    1:03:01 a day to week, it’s what are you willing to take away from your plate in order to make time for that.
    1:03:06 And so work is such a compelling system, right?
    1:03:08 If I work harder, I get promoted.
    1:03:10 If I get promoted, I make more money.
    1:03:16 If I make more money, I get to have a nicer apartment and my mom gets to brag about me.
    1:03:17 I get to update my LinkedIn.
    1:03:24 It’s like it’s the perfect gamified system to find self-worth through achievement.
    1:03:25 And dating is a lot harder.
    1:03:27 There’s a lot of constant rejection.
    1:03:29 It costs time.
    1:03:29 It costs money.
    1:03:31 It might take away from that gamified career.
    1:03:38 And so I love to help people understand that the sooner you learn how to date, the sooner
    1:03:39 you can stop dating.
    1:03:43 And why not do that when you’re younger and there’s a larger pool of people to date?
    1:03:48 Is there an age difference that it becomes too much?
    1:03:54 You probably see everything at Hinge from like the 60-year-olds going for the 20-year-olds
    1:03:56 to everything in between.
    1:04:00 What’s an appropriate age gap that people should be looking for?
    1:04:08 Most of my research has been with Gen Z and millennial daters who are sort of dating for their first
    1:04:11 marriage or dating to have kids, depending on the situation.
    1:04:14 That covers up to maybe 50, right?
    1:04:19 Like, I mean, they’re younger, but their partner, the person that they’re looking for, might be older.
    1:04:20 Potentially.
    1:04:24 But what I was going to say is, you know, I did this Netflix show, The Later Daters, and
    1:04:26 that was where I worked with people 55 plus.
    1:04:30 And so that was sort of my first exposure to that age group.
    1:04:36 And it was really interesting to see the different age differences and if people were dating somebody
    1:04:38 at the same life stage as them.
    1:04:43 And so I think what came up a lot on the show and in the kind of coaching conversations that
    1:04:48 maybe didn’t make it onto the show was that sometimes if you look younger, you might go
    1:04:49 on a date with somebody younger.
    1:04:51 And that feels really good from an ego perspective.
    1:04:53 But then you’re just in a different life stage.
    1:04:57 And so I think what really matters is, do you have the same values?
    1:05:00 Do you like spending time the same way?
    1:05:04 You know, if you’re retired and you can travel and the other person is hustling and building
    1:05:09 their business, then maybe you just aren’t a good match because you’re not going to be spending
    1:05:11 the majority of your time together.
    1:05:15 And so I think instead of like, you know, one of those funny calculations, like I don’t even
    1:05:18 remember it, but it’s something like half of your age minus seven.
    1:05:20 Like, I don’t believe in any rules like that.
    1:05:22 I think people mature at different rates.
    1:05:23 People have different life experiences.
    1:05:28 But instead, really tuning into, am I dating this person because they’re younger and hotter
    1:05:29 and an ego boost?
    1:05:33 Or do I actually feel like this is somebody I want to partner with in life?
    1:05:36 Okay, so we go on a first date.
    1:05:36 We’re not interested.
    1:05:37 What do we say?
    1:05:43 We say in a text, probably, and not ghosting,
    1:05:47 hey, it was really great to meet you.
    1:05:52 It was so fun to hear about your podcast and the cool people that you’re interviewing this
    1:05:52 year.
    1:05:57 I don’t think we’re a romantic match, but it was great meeting you.
    1:05:59 I don’t owe you feedback.
    1:06:04 I don’t need to get into a long conversation about what you did right or wrong.
    1:06:07 I’m acknowledging you that you’re a person.
    1:06:09 We had an experience together, and I don’t want to move forward.
    1:06:11 And that’s it.
    1:06:11 You just leave it there.
    1:06:12 Yeah.
    1:06:16 I think the most important thing, kind of going back to your word of kindness, is to
    1:06:17 be kind but firm.
    1:06:21 So if you write back and say, I really don’t think I was my best self.
    1:06:22 You know, I was kind of jet lagged.
    1:06:23 I want to see you again.
    1:06:26 You know, maybe that’s not what feels right for me.
    1:06:28 And so I can respond or not respond.
    1:06:33 But I feel like I did my duty by saying to you, I met you.
    1:06:34 We had an experience.
    1:06:35 I’m not interested.
    1:06:40 And what’s so hard about ghosting, and it truly has become more and more common over,
    1:06:46 say, the last five years that I’ve been tracking it, is that it leads people in this ambiguity.
    1:06:50 Oh, maybe he likes me, but he just is busy and he hasn’t gotten back to me.
    1:06:53 So I’m not going to get back to this person in case this person wants to see me.
    1:06:59 And so in the research that I did on this at Hinge, what we found is that 86% of people
    1:07:03 say, when it comes to rejection, I’d rather you tell me.
    1:07:05 It hurts, but I want to know.
    1:07:09 So you have this problem where people want the facts.
    1:07:11 They want the truth so that they can move on.
    1:07:15 But then the other people don’t share the truth because they say, oh, I don’t want
    1:07:16 to hurt their feelings.
    1:07:20 But you’re actually hurting them more by not being upfront from the beginning about how you
    1:07:21 feel.
    1:07:23 Do you block the person after you send this text?
    1:07:26 I don’t think that’s necessary.
    1:07:27 Do you block the person?
    1:07:29 Well, I don’t know.
    1:07:30 We’re going to come back to this maybe later.
    1:07:31 Actually, let’s dive into this now.
    1:07:33 A lot of people text their exes.
    1:07:34 Yeah.
    1:07:35 Is that healthy?
    1:07:44 In general, the research shows that moving on from your ex is the best way to find a new
    1:07:50 relationship because when we keep all of these doors open, it actually prevents us from finding
    1:07:51 a new door to open.
    1:07:55 And so if you have these five people from your past that you sleep with when you’re in a certain
    1:07:58 city or you wonder, oh, maybe I should get back together with her.
    1:08:01 I’ll keep her on the back burner, what we call like orbiting.
    1:08:05 It can actually prevent you from focusing and finding somebody new.
    1:08:08 And I even find this is especially true with sex.
    1:08:13 So if you are somebody who craves a lot of sex, but you occasionally sleep with your exes,
    1:08:18 you almost don’t have the motivation to find somebody new to be in a partnership with because
    1:08:21 you’re getting some of those needs met by other people.
    1:08:26 And what if you actually were dating in a different way where you’re like, I’m going to focus all
    1:08:32 of my time, energy, really even life force on a new person because that’s aligned with
    1:08:35 my goals versus just getting some of those needs met in the short term.
    1:08:37 Well, let’s double click on that again.
    1:08:41 So if your needs are getting met outside of a relationship, then there’s no incentive to
    1:08:42 be in a relationship.
    1:08:43 Is that what I…
    1:08:48 You know, living in the Bay Area, there is such a big community of people who are polyamorous
    1:08:49 or in open relationships.
    1:08:53 And I’m personally not in one of those, but I see a lot of value in it.
    1:09:02 I think that with the divorce rate being at 40% to 50% over the last 40 years, we’ve really
    1:09:06 seen that this one-size-fits-all version of marriage doesn’t work for most people.
    1:09:11 So if you have a product and 50% of people are returning it, then maybe you need to rework
    1:09:11 that product.
    1:09:16 So anyone who’s rethinking the structure of marriage, I am a fan of.
    1:09:19 So relationship fluidity, all those things I think are great.
    1:09:25 And so in a polyamorous relationship, you might have somebody where you have more of a sexual
    1:09:27 relationship with them, somebody where you have more of an intellectual connection with
    1:09:28 them.
    1:09:29 There’s so many different ways of doing it.
    1:09:34 And so I wouldn’t say that you need to get all of your needs met by one person and you
    1:09:39 should not get those needs met by other people because I believe in these open relationship
    1:09:39 structures.
    1:09:44 But what I’m saying here is when you’re single and you have limited time and you really want
    1:09:49 to find someone, ask yourself, is this ongoing relationship with my ex something that’s pushing
    1:09:51 me forward or pulling me backwards?
    1:09:56 And if the answer is that it’s pulling you backwards, then I would cut ties for the time being and really
    1:09:59 focus on the next person that you could have a relationship with.
    1:10:00 Interesting.
    1:10:08 I have a friend who’s a GP and she’s mentioned in the past that one of the biggest reasons
    1:10:13 that people come into our office for antidepressants is because they’re in an open relationship.
    1:10:14 Really?
    1:10:20 And they don’t want their partner to know that it’s causing them all this anxiety or all of
    1:10:21 this.
    1:10:23 And I don’t know if that’s true or not.
    1:10:25 I mean, I’m personally not a fan of them.
    1:10:25 Okay.
    1:10:27 But I respect people.
    1:10:29 Yeah, I do feel like your body language changed a little bit when I brought it up.
    1:10:31 Oh, interesting on the body language.
    1:10:33 But I’m all for people doing whatever they want to do.
    1:10:34 Yeah.
    1:10:38 You know, as long as everybody’s a consenting adult, like I’m in favor of it.
    1:10:38 You’re not breaking the laws.
    1:10:39 You’re not hurting people.
    1:10:41 And everybody’s aware of the situation.
    1:10:42 That’s fine.
    1:10:47 I do wonder like what emotional toll it takes on people over time.
    1:10:49 I’m very far from an expert on polyamory.
    1:10:54 But I’m just thinking about one of my friends who’s very proudly polyamorous and kind of I
    1:10:59 can hear her in my head sort of being like that person may not be a good fit for an open
    1:11:00 relationship.
    1:11:01 And why are they in one?
    1:11:05 Because in an ideal world, there’s this concept of compersion.
    1:11:06 Have you heard of that?
    1:11:10 It’s a word that means I get pleasure when you get pleasure.
    1:11:16 So like kind of the first polyamorous couple that I got to know about 10 years ago, I remember
    1:11:22 the guy describing to me, oh, tonight my wife has a date with her boyfriend and I’m really
    1:11:23 excited for her.
    1:11:28 And like my anxious brain, my jealous brain was like, I cannot relate to that on any level.
    1:11:29 That is a nightmare.
    1:11:31 That’s instantly where my brain went.
    1:11:31 Right.
    1:11:36 And I think I’m just way too jealous and anxious and insecure of a person to really be a good
    1:11:43 fit for an open relationship because I think that the part of my brain that would be thinking
    1:11:44 about, am I going to be rejected?
    1:11:45 Am I going to be abandoned?
    1:11:51 Would just be so loud in my head that it would overcome any pleasure that I might get from having
    1:11:54 my own relationships outside the marriage.
    1:11:57 For other people, they are truly not there.
    1:11:58 That’s not where the brains are.
    1:12:05 I know people very intimately who feel like I’m so happy when my partner gets this other
    1:12:06 need met.
    1:12:09 Or maybe it’s like, I’m really busy at work right now and I’m not feeling that sexual.
    1:12:12 I’m so happy that my partner has this outlet.
    1:12:17 And so that story about the GP, I would say that doesn’t resonate with the experiences that
    1:12:17 I’ve heard.
    1:12:22 And it kind of goes back to why is that person in an open relationship in the first place?
    1:12:25 Is it because they think that that’s the only way their partner should stay?
    1:12:30 And probably instead of talking to the GP about it or maybe in addition, they should talk to
    1:12:36 their partners and say, either this isn’t working for me or we need to change the stipulations
    1:12:40 of this because it’s currently causing me more pain than it is pleasure.
    1:12:45 Just thinking out loud, I wonder if it would feed the side of me that doesn’t feel enough
    1:12:47 or doesn’t feel lovable.
    1:12:51 And so it would just cause like this endless torment in my head.
    1:12:54 That’s what I think it would feel like for me.
    1:13:01 But I find polyamory really endlessly fascinating because it’s basically alerting me to a different
    1:13:02 brain chemistry.
    1:13:02 Totally.
    1:13:06 And it’s sort of like in our society, we’ve accepted extroverts and introverts.
    1:13:10 So like I know that I could be in a terrible mood and then go to a party and then have the
    1:13:11 time of my life.
    1:13:14 And it’s like, why was that party bringing me so much energy?
    1:13:16 Well, I’m extremely extroverted.
    1:13:17 For my husband, it’s the opposite.
    1:13:23 So why can’t we all think there are people for whom compersion is possible and amazing
    1:13:24 for them?
    1:13:29 It’s okay that I’m not like that instead of this assumption that for everyone, they would
    1:13:31 have the same experience around it.
    1:13:36 And the other term that you mentioned that I’ve never heard of before is orbiting.
    1:13:37 What does that mean?
    1:13:38 Okay.
    1:13:43 So orbiting is a term that a reporter from Mashable, Anna Iovine, came up with.
    1:13:48 And it’s about this idea of keeping a bunch of people or several people in orbit around
    1:13:51 you sort of to increase your opportunities.
    1:13:56 So you’re sort of not committing to any of them, but they’re all there sort of on your bench
    1:13:58 as people that you could interact with.
    1:14:02 And instead of keeping all of these balls in the air, sorry, I’m like totally mixing metaphors
    1:14:03 here.
    1:14:08 It’s much better to commit to somebody, see how the relationship goes, then decide if
    1:14:13 you want to stay in the relationship or not, and then move on versus feeling like, well,
    1:14:18 the more possibilities I have, the more freedom I have, the more chances of success I have.
    1:14:24 Actually, success comes from committing to something, seeing if it works, and then moving on if it
    1:14:24 doesn’t.
    1:14:28 There’s so many parallels between that and business, right?
    1:14:32 Where, you know, a lot of people just tend to dabble in all of these different projects
    1:14:37 and they don’t actually get things done versus people who commit to a project, focus on it
    1:14:39 and make it a priority.
    1:14:43 There’s a great concept from Dan Gilbert of Harvard called changeability.
    1:14:50 So we often crave the ability to change our minds because it makes us feel more free.
    1:14:55 So in this experiment that he ran on the Harvard campus, he had a bunch of students take a
    1:14:56 photography workshop.
    1:15:01 And one of the weekends that students took the workshop, they would get a call at the
    1:15:05 end of the weekend and say, hey, we’re actually going to have an art show in London in a few
    1:15:05 weeks.
    1:15:11 Pick one of your pictures from this weekend of taking pictures, and that’s going to be sent
    1:15:11 to London.
    1:15:14 And they didn’t have the opportunity to change their mind.
    1:15:19 In a different scenario, they would call the students and say, pick one of the pieces to
    1:15:23 be sent to this art show in London, and I’m going to call you in a few days and see if
    1:15:23 you want to change your mind.
    1:15:27 Most of the time, people didn’t change their mind about the photos.
    1:15:33 But when you ask people in which situation they were more satisfied, the people who didn’t
    1:15:38 have the chance to change their mind were actually more satisfied because they made a commitment
    1:15:41 and they immediately rationalized it and they felt good about it.
    1:15:46 When you can change your mind, you start wondering, well, that picture is a little sharper,
    1:15:50 but this one’s a little more original, and maybe people in London will like this one
    1:15:50 more.
    1:15:54 And so you sort of start making this pro-con list in your head that actually works against
    1:15:57 you because you start doubting your original answer.
    1:16:02 But this comes back to almost what we were talking about earlier in dating multiple people and
    1:16:03 having all these options available.
    1:16:07 And you’re sort of like, oh, I’m making these choices all over again every day.
    1:16:08 Absolutely.
    1:16:10 And that’s something that Hinge is thinking about.
    1:16:14 So my favorite feature that’s come out in a long time is this thing that came out last
    1:16:16 year called Your Turn Limits.
    1:16:20 And basically, the idea is that people were thinking, I want to get as many matches as
    1:16:20 possible.
    1:16:24 I really want to get this ego boost from attention and see how many people will like me.
    1:16:27 And instead, it’s about connection over attention.
    1:16:33 So now, if you have eight conversations where you owe somebody a response, you cannot match with
    1:16:36 anyone else until you respond to one of those people.
    1:16:41 So either you close out the conversation and show that you’re not interested or you keep
    1:16:42 the conversation going with them.
    1:16:47 And I was with my cousin over Christmas and he was like, oh, Logan, like this feature is
    1:16:47 so challenging.
    1:16:49 Like, I’m just trying to meet some new people.
    1:16:51 And I’m like, dude, look at your matches.
    1:16:52 Who are these women?
    1:16:53 Do you like them?
    1:16:55 Then ask them out on a date.
    1:17:00 And I think that in general, the brain just has such a natural tendency to want options and
    1:17:03 choices when in reality, limiting those options or going through things
    1:17:06 one at a time makes it much easier to make a choice.
    1:17:11 And so I think in the age of dating apps, having this your turn limits feature is actually
    1:17:17 a really smart way to kind of nudge people towards making decisions instead of endlessly
    1:17:18 trying to match.
    1:17:24 And then once you’ve had a date with somebody, what does the science say about whether you
    1:17:28 should, should I be dating three people at once for a first date or should I date one
    1:17:31 person and then be like, oh, I kind of like this person.
    1:17:35 I’m going to like pause the app or like hide my profile or whatever it is.
    1:17:37 I found that it does differ by person.
    1:17:40 So there are people out there that are really anxiously attached.
    1:17:43 And when they meet someone, their brain goes into, I need to lock it down.
    1:17:44 I don’t want to date anymore.
    1:17:45 So I just want to date them.
    1:17:47 So how can I become exclusive with them?
    1:17:51 And for those people, sometimes having multiple people that they’re seeing in the beginning
    1:17:56 is actually a way to sort of ease some of that and just makes it a little bit easier for them
    1:18:00 to be a bit more relaxed and have a bit more of an abundance mindset.
    1:18:04 There are other people for whom seeing multiple people at the same time in the beginning either
    1:18:08 feels immoral or uncomfortable or just too exhausting.
    1:18:13 And so I would say for the person, really explore what are the patterns that have held you back in
    1:18:18 the past, what feels hard for you, what makes you feel like you’re dating successfully,
    1:18:20 and then do what’s right for you.
    1:18:24 While, of course, keeping in mind things like making it clear to someone if you’re not exclusive
    1:18:25 or if you’re not sexually exclusive.
    1:18:30 How do you have that conversation on maybe your first date or your second date?
    1:18:34 Do you just ask outright, like, hey, are you dating other people?
    1:18:35 Like, how do you bring that up?
    1:18:40 I would say that in modern dating, it’s sort of assumed that you’re not exclusive
    1:18:42 until you have the conversation.
    1:18:47 And that pain can come from somebody making an assumption, well, oh, we’ve been dating for six
    1:18:48 months, we must be exclusive.
    1:18:51 Oh, we’ve had sex, we must be exclusive.
    1:18:56 And there is a lot of heartbreak that happens when people don’t have that explicit conversation.
    1:19:02 So in life, in relationships, in dating, I am such a big fan of just checking in with the
    1:19:07 person because there’s really this natural tendency, kind of going back to mind reading
    1:19:12 of, well, if I really like you, then we must think the same way and be on the same page.
    1:19:16 And when you bring it up, you’re afraid, well, what if I find out information that makes me
    1:19:17 sad, then I’ll be sad.
    1:19:22 It’s like, no, that information is power and you need the data to make an informed decision
    1:19:23 for yourself.
    1:19:28 And if you find out information that’s disappointing, yes, it hurts, but now you can decide if that’s
    1:19:29 the right person for you or not.
    1:19:33 What are women not getting from men and men not getting from women?
    1:19:37 That’s a question that I’m going to be researching more this year.
    1:19:38 So stay tuned.
    1:19:39 But it’s really on my mind.
    1:19:40 What’s your intuition?
    1:19:49 I don’t know if it’s gender specific things where there’s a lack of connection or just maybe
    1:19:55 cultural things going on where, you know, there’s big differences in religious institution
    1:19:57 attendance or political divergence.
    1:20:04 But when I think about the issues in dating, I tend to focus less on what is this gender
    1:20:05 or that gender think.
    1:20:09 And I tend to focus more on patterns of behavior or blind spots that people have.
    1:20:14 And so, of course, there’s going to be different advice that I give to a woman in her late 30s
    1:20:17 who wants to have biological children versus a guy in his 20s.
    1:20:20 Like those conversations sound different and they have different timelines.
    1:20:25 I think so much of the work that I do is really about helping people understand who
    1:20:28 they are, understanding these patterns, holding them back.
    1:20:30 And those are sort of universal things.
    1:20:34 But I am interested in what’s happening in dating right now.
    1:20:39 And I am sort of at the beginning of a research project that will dig more into sort of what
    1:20:41 are certain groups not understanding about other groups.
    1:20:46 What makes somebody good at dating and maybe bad at being a partner?
    1:20:48 And then the opposite.
    1:20:51 What makes somebody bad at dating but like good at being a partner?
    1:20:53 What do you think you are?
    1:20:57 I think I’m terrible at dating but good at being a partner.
    1:21:00 What do you think makes you bad at dating?
    1:21:03 I get bored.
    1:21:10 The opportunity cost of being on a first date is incredibly high.
    1:21:11 Okay.
    1:21:12 So going back to priorities.
    1:21:13 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
    1:21:15 Like if you think about my priorities, it’s sort of like the kids.
    1:21:16 Okay.
    1:21:17 And then work.
    1:21:20 And those two things matter a lot to me.
    1:21:24 And between those two things, it doesn’t leave a lot of time for anything else.
    1:21:28 And the difference between running a business and working for somebody else often is I could
    1:21:31 be working and earning money like you at 6 p.m., right?
    1:21:35 So if I’m on a date or something with somebody, then there’s all these things.
    1:21:37 And you start thinking about that.
    1:21:43 And then you just get caught up in your day sometimes and you’re extremely focused, which
    1:21:46 is part of what makes people successful is extreme focus.
    1:21:50 And then I think, and I don’t know if I’m right or wrong, correct me on this.
    1:21:55 If you come home to a person, I value connection.
    1:21:56 I value that time.
    1:22:02 But it’s really hard to make that time in your day versus it exists naturally because
    1:22:05 you’re coming home, you’re going to bed, you’re cleaning the kitchen together, you’re
    1:22:09 making dinner together, you’re doing these things together, which becomes a natural part
    1:22:12 of your day versus I’m not going to text you.
    1:22:15 And I’m like with the kids and I’m making dinner and I’m not going to.
    1:22:15 Yeah.
    1:22:17 And so by that time, it’s 9 p.m.
    1:22:19 And I don’t know about everybody else, but 9 p.m.
    1:22:20 I’m pretty much ready for bed.
    1:22:23 You know, maybe 10, I can go up till.
    1:22:25 But how does that work?
    1:22:27 And maybe this is the wrong way to think about it.
    1:22:27 I don’t know.
    1:22:32 It’s very interesting that you said you’re good at being in a relationship, but sort
    1:22:34 of not as good as getting into one.
    1:22:35 Yeah.
    1:22:40 And it sounds like once somebody has jumped through the hoops necessary to kind of make
    1:22:44 it into the top priorities in your life, you will give them the time and attention.
    1:22:50 But you find that hard to do in the early stages where maybe they haven’t earned that spot yet.
    1:22:50 Totally.
    1:22:51 So.
    1:22:55 I mean, that’s a bit more extreme than I would word it, but I think you’re generally
    1:22:56 on the right track.
    1:23:00 And so what are your long-term goals in dating and relationships?
    1:23:02 I want to be in a relationship.
    1:23:02 Yeah.
    1:23:07 You know, I want to be happy and I want a life post my kids.
    1:23:12 Like right now, one of the things that’s top of mind for me or has been for a while is sort
    1:23:14 of the kids.
    1:23:15 They’re 14 and 15.
    1:23:20 The path to them going to university is very clear.
    1:23:21 And then what?
    1:23:23 I have a great, amazing group of friends.
    1:23:26 I’m very close with my family.
    1:23:27 I have a very full life.
    1:23:28 But then what?
    1:23:31 They move out and now I’m alone.
    1:23:37 The reason why I asked you what your long-term goals are, are that if you’re really clear
    1:23:41 on your goal, I think it helps you prioritize your life differently.
    1:23:48 So it’s like for the next five years, as you have kids at home, it’s very clear what your
    1:23:49 evenings look like.
    1:23:49 Totally.
    1:23:52 So what happens when you don’t have any kids at home?
    1:23:54 Do you then suddenly start dating?
    1:23:55 And then do you feel behind?
    1:23:58 Do you feel like I’m a little rusty on my dating skills?
    1:24:00 I don’t know what kind of person I like.
    1:24:03 I actually wanted to have more kids, but now I feel like I’ve aged out of that.
    1:24:09 And so by getting super clear on your long-term goals for you, for anyone else, I feel like
    1:24:11 it helps you make those adjustments in your life.
    1:24:19 And so if you told me, I want to run a marathon, but I don’t have time to train, then I would
    1:24:21 say, I don’t really think you want to run a marathon.
    1:24:22 Totally.
    1:24:24 Or you’re not going to run a marathon this year.
    1:24:29 But if you said, I really want to run a marathon and I’m willing to lose an hour of sleep every
    1:24:36 night or be slightly worse at my job or even have a few fewer hours a week with my kids,
    1:24:39 and I would say it sounds like this is something that you’re willing to do.
    1:24:43 And so instead of thinking, this is something that will happen in the future, I think it
    1:24:48 does look like making, sacrifice is too strong a word, but making adjustments now to how you
    1:24:55 spend your time so that you are getting close enough to somebody to even decide if you want
    1:24:56 to be in a relationship with them.
    1:24:58 Dating is a bit of a show though.
    1:25:00 Like you put on your best face, right?
    1:25:01 You might’ve had a bad day at work.
    1:25:06 You sit down and all of a sudden you just want to be in your sweatpants at home watching
    1:25:07 trashy TV.
    1:25:10 But you’re doing something that you don’t want to do.
    1:25:14 And so like, not not want to do, but you’re putting on a bit of a mask, right?
    1:25:16 You’re hiding part of yourself through dating.
    1:25:22 And I feel like it might be better if people just saw all the different sides of you rather
    1:25:24 than this pretend little dance.
    1:25:25 So what would that look like?
    1:25:27 I don’t know.
    1:25:28 Like you’re the expert.
    1:25:36 No, but why I’m pushing you on that point is like, your job right now is flying to different
    1:25:40 locations to have deep one-on-one conversations with somebody.
    1:25:42 Isn’t that a little bit of a show?
    1:25:44 Isn’t it a little bit like a first date?
    1:25:45 It’s like, I’m meeting a stranger.
    1:25:47 I want to have a connection with them.
    1:25:48 I want to have an experience.
    1:25:51 There’s cameras here, but I don’t think we’re thinking about the cameras.
    1:25:56 I think we’re thinking about the fact that we are getting to know each other, exchanging
    1:25:56 information.
    1:25:59 And that’s why I prefer to do them in person.
    1:25:59 Right, me too.
    1:26:03 So my assumption is that like, you must enjoy this if you’ve built a life around it.
    1:26:08 How can you reframe dating to be something where it’s like, I get to meet somebody, have
    1:26:13 an experience with them, go deep, have thoughts I’ve never had before because we’re playing a
    1:26:18 conversational game of ping pong and I’m having a good time.
    1:26:21 Whereas right now it sounds like the frame is, dating is draining.
    1:26:23 Dating is time away from my kids.
    1:26:29 Dating is I can’t be in my sweatpants as opposed to reframing it to this is aligned with my goals
    1:26:30 and I can actually make it fun.
    1:26:34 Maybe the way to think about this is I feel broken in a lot of ways, right?
    1:26:39 And this is part of the reason I went to therapy last summer and spent a lot of time.
    1:26:41 I did immersive therapy, which is kind of crazy.
    1:26:42 Oh, tell me about it.
    1:26:46 I spent like 10 hours a day with this woman who like flew to Ottawa.
    1:26:47 Cool.
    1:26:48 And we walked.
    1:26:50 We walked like 20 miles a day.
    1:26:50 This is like my dream.
    1:26:52 For five days.
    1:26:53 Oh my God.
    1:26:53 That’s healthy.
    1:26:54 That sounds great.
    1:26:57 And by the end of the day, she’s like totally energized and I’m like, oh my God, I’m ready
    1:26:58 for sleep, right?
    1:27:00 Okay, this is a new modality that I need to pursue.
    1:27:01 It was amazing.
    1:27:02 It was the best thing ever.
    1:27:06 I didn’t want to do this like every two weeks thing and I definitely didn’t want to do therapy
    1:27:06 over Zoom.
    1:27:07 I love this.
    1:27:13 So I hired this world-class therapist, flew to Ottawa, and spent like four or five days with
    1:27:13 her.
    1:27:14 Incredible.
    1:27:15 Totally immersed.
    1:27:20 And I figured, you know, from my point of view, the worst thing is like she knocks on the door,
    1:27:21 we don’t get along.
    1:27:26 I’ve already paid for the week, you know, it’s sort of like just go home and I’ll do
    1:27:26 work or whatever.
    1:27:28 But we really hit it off.
    1:27:34 And part of what came out of this is, I don’t know, maybe I’m alone in this, but I feel like
    1:27:39 when I get broken up with where a relationship doesn’t work out, I feel like I’m constantly
    1:27:41 telling my friends, oh, it didn’t work out.
    1:27:46 And then there’s a part of me on the inside that just feels like I’m broken.
    1:27:48 What’s your reaction to that?
    1:27:50 That you are so not alone.
    1:27:52 Rejection sucks.
    1:27:57 Having somebody spend time with you, evaluate you, and tell you that you’re not what they
    1:27:59 want is so painful.
    1:28:03 And I think that if you apply for a job and you don’t get it, it’s, oh, I wasn’t right
    1:28:06 for the position and they had an internal candidate.
    1:28:07 It’s just one slice of your life.
    1:28:13 There’s something uniquely painful about rejection in dating because it’s like, I’ve met you and
    1:28:14 I don’t want you.
    1:28:20 And so I’m just validating that I think many, many, many people find this whole process very
    1:28:25 painful, especially people who’ve been dating 10, 15 years and are just like, my body, my soul,
    1:28:27 I can’t go through this anymore.
    1:28:29 So I just have a lot of empathy for that.
    1:28:35 But what is so interesting about the conversation that we’re having is you sort of started with,
    1:28:41 it’s hard for me to make time for dating when I think what’s actually going on is it’s very
    1:28:43 painful for me to feel rejected.
    1:28:45 So I don’t want to subject myself to that.
    1:28:50 And so the time is an excuse for a much deeper thing that you’re experiencing.
    1:28:52 There’s definitely an element of that.
    1:28:54 I feel broken even when I break up with somebody.
    1:28:56 Do you know what I mean?
    1:29:02 Like, I feel like maybe I pushed them away or did something to like cause the fracture and then,
    1:29:06 you know, eventually manned up and called off the relationship or something.
    1:29:11 But then I walk away from that feeling like I’m like, why did I do that?
    1:29:14 So what’s the story in your head?
    1:29:18 I mean, it comes back to vulnerability at a point, right?
    1:29:23 Like, I think you get to a point in any relationship where you have to make a decision.
    1:29:27 And for me, it’s more binary maybe than other people.
    1:29:31 And that decision is, do I trust this person to not hurt me?
    1:29:37 And for whatever reason, post-divorce, that’s been really hard for me to get to that point.
    1:29:39 And then trust somebody.
    1:29:44 So when I have got to that point and I do overcome it, it hasn’t worked out.
    1:29:45 And so it’s like, oh, gosh.
    1:29:48 So you did these five days of immersive therapy.
    1:29:49 Oh, yeah.
    1:29:55 What are you currently doing to kind of heal that inner wound, which is I am broken?
    1:30:04 Because if your analysis is that until you feel less broken, both when you break up with someone and when they break up with you,
    1:30:06 I think you’re not going to be able to connect with someone.
    1:30:10 Walk me through how you made your decision about your husband.
    1:30:13 Because that was not a love at first sight.
    1:30:13 Yeah.
    1:30:15 That was a slow burn.
    1:30:22 How do you decide between falling into a relationship with inertia and choosing to be in a relationship?
    1:30:26 Thank you for indulging me and letting me talk about my husband, who I love so much.
    1:30:34 And it’s so cliche, but I feel like I love him way more now than I did in our first year, our second year.
    1:30:36 Our lives are just so much more enmeshed.
    1:30:41 And so my husband and I met in college.
    1:30:44 And we only know this because we became Facebook friends at the time.
    1:30:48 So I have this vague memory of sitting next to him in the dining hall.
    1:30:49 And we had a mutual friend.
    1:30:53 And he wrote on my Facebook wall, which back in the day, you know, maybe he was flirting or maybe he wasn’t.
    1:30:57 And then we met again at Google.
    1:31:01 And I saw him on a dating app.
    1:31:04 And I looked at his photos.
    1:31:07 I can just remember exactly where I was, exactly what the photos looked like.
    1:31:08 And I swiped left.
    1:31:13 I said no, because from his pictures, he just looked like this unsmiling bro.
    1:31:18 They were sort of all from this like one hiking trip and maybe one wedding he went to.
    1:31:19 Wasn’t smiling in any of them.
    1:31:24 And I was just like, oh, this guy’s like wearing tank tops and a backwards hat, like not for me.
    1:31:32 And I like that part of the story because I think it shows like how quickly we make judgments and how incorrect a lot of those judgments are.
    1:31:42 So then some period of time later, I held this lunch at Google, which was people who had gone to our college who worked at Google.
    1:31:46 And, you know, in retrospect, I think I was expanding my network.
    1:31:48 I was doing it for the interns from our school.
    1:31:52 But it was also a way of just like meeting more people and maybe meeting more potential partners.
    1:31:56 And so I sat next to my then husband at this lunch.
    1:32:03 And I was talking about how I was trying to learn the statistical programming language of R and how it was very hard.
    1:32:08 And he said, oh, I just dropped out of a math PhD program where I wrote R every day.
    1:32:11 I will tutor you in it.
    1:32:17 And now that I know this person extremely well, I feel like that was out of character for him.
    1:32:19 He was totally like hitting on you.
    1:32:23 Like I think he must have been, but that’s not like what either of our versions of it are.
    1:32:24 He didn’t like-
    1:32:25 It’s not how it felt.
    1:32:27 It’s not how it felt, but it’s so interesting.
    1:32:38 It’s like even using my language of what side of you does the person bring out, I feel like in that moment, I brought out a generous side of him that he maybe doesn’t always access.
    1:32:42 My husband is not the person going through the world asking people if he can do them favors.
    1:32:49 And I don’t know if it even was romantic for him or a feeling of like, I want to be around this person more or like, I’m lonely.
    1:32:51 I just dropped out of a PhD program.
    1:32:52 I want to make new friends.
    1:33:00 And so over the next year, we did have these R tutoring sessions and I remember them so well.
    1:33:06 And I remember these like celebratory moments where I’d figure things out and he was a good tutor and it really put him in a good light, right?
    1:33:07 Like he’s just so smart.
    1:33:09 It was a chance for him to chime.
    1:33:16 At the same time, there was this guy that I had met at Burning Man who I was obsessed with and definitely pursuing.
    1:33:23 And every textbook example of anxious attachment was coming true for me.
    1:33:26 So it was like he would pull away, so I would chase him more.
    1:33:33 He rejected me, so I thought, how can I prove to him that I’m worthy of his love?
    1:33:37 This guy who I was obsessed with, I had a mutual friend with him.
    1:33:44 We were sort of in the same extended group of friends and somebody who knew the guy that I was chasing, you know, was just witnessing how in pain I was and was like, hey, like this isn’t working out.
    1:33:56 And so I started seeing this dating coach and it was so helpful because a lot of what we did was kind of pull back the curtain.
    1:34:04 And so I started to understand when she asked me, the person who you’re going to end up with, how do you want them to make you feel?
    1:34:07 And so a lot of that stuff was I want to feel desired.
    1:34:08 I want to feel smart.
    1:34:10 I want to feel cared for.
    1:34:13 And how does this guy from Burning Man make you feel?
    1:34:14 Well, he makes me feel anxious.
    1:34:17 He makes me feel not good enough.
    1:34:19 He makes me feel not attractive enough.
    1:34:26 And it’s like in continuing to pursue him, I was continuing to pursue those feelings that felt really bad.
    1:34:31 She said, well, do you know any guys, have you ever dated anyone who makes you feel this way that you want to feel?
    1:34:35 And this guy from work popped up in my head.
    1:34:37 I was like, wow, those tutoring sessions are really fun.
    1:34:41 And we’ve gotten closer and now we have lunch at work.
    1:34:44 And sometimes I call him after my dates with other people.
    1:34:47 But why am I not dating him?
    1:34:54 And so pretty quickly, you know, being a goal-oriented person, I was kind of like, hey, I don’t have plans this Friday night.
    1:34:57 Like, you know, dot, dot, dot, you should ask me out.
    1:35:01 And we quickly went on a first date and, you know, a number of dates.
    1:35:06 And now we’ve been together for almost 10 years.
    1:35:12 And I just feel like on paper there were some reasons why we wouldn’t have worked.
    1:35:20 So, for example, like at the time I was very into Burning Man and he not only didn’t go but he would say, I don’t really trust anyone who goes to Burning Man.
    1:35:21 Well, guess what?
    1:35:23 We went to Burning Man together multiple times.
    1:35:35 It’s like I felt like the deepest parts of us that were connected, so sort of same sense of humor, which is a huge part of a relationship, mutual intellectual respect, really trusting each other deeply.
    1:35:39 Like, those things were there from the beginning and have continued to grow.
    1:35:43 And we still have parts of our lives where we’re not the same.
    1:35:44 He’s vegan and I’m not.
    1:35:47 I like traveling a lot more than he does.
    1:35:52 But we’ve built a life where the Venn diagram of the middle is super strong.
    1:35:59 And we each also have the parts of our lives that are separate and we’re not trying to be 100% merged.
    1:36:02 What was the transition from friendship to dating?
    1:36:03 Was it seamless or was it awkward?
    1:36:16 You know, I think in my head it’s so mythologized that, like, I don’t know if I can give you a truly honest answer, but I think it was kind of pouring gasoline onto, like, the chemistry that we already had.
    1:36:20 Yeah, so it was, like, it was really exciting.
    1:36:24 I mean, it felt so exciting, like, especially, you know, we’ve worked, both worked at Google.
    1:36:26 It’s this big company with thousands of people.
    1:36:36 So I would go to his cafe instead of my cafe and, like, hope that I would see him or, like, you know, I would, what did we call it back in the day, like, G-chat him, like, on the shuttle.
    1:36:44 Like, there was just so much excitement in the beginning around, like, wow, like, I have a lot of chemistry with this person and we’re going to take that friend chemistry
    1:36:47 and see if there’s something romantic there.
    1:36:50 And it was not smooth sailing all the way.
    1:36:59 Like, there was definitely a moment a few years later where I kind of blew up my life where I left this steady job that I had at Airbnb and I moved to New York for a few months to do this TED program.
    1:37:02 And just a lot of changes were happening.
    1:37:06 And we definitely hit a moment of, like, we’re either going to break up or get engaged.
    1:37:10 And we navigated that moment and, you know, clearly—
    1:37:11 How did you navigate that moment?
    1:37:16 That is, like, such a decision where there’s a fork in the road.
    1:37:16 Absolutely.
    1:37:17 You’re in a relationship.
    1:37:17 Yeah.
    1:37:20 You have a lot of sunk cost in a relationship.
    1:37:22 How did you make that decision?
    1:37:29 I think people often assume that relationships are smooth sailing and that you just keep dating until you’re married.
    1:37:48 But as somebody who does these, like, breakup consultations and has really talked to a lot of people over the years, that idea of break up or get engaged is pretty common because it’s like we either keep going and it escalates to marriage soon or there’s no marriage at the end of this, in which case we should break up because we both want to find other people to marry.
    1:37:54 And so I think just, like, normalizing that that happens or that people put ultimatums or deadlines on things.
    1:37:55 I actually think that’s happening all the time.
    1:38:01 For us, it was a lot of conversations about things that we wanted long term.
    1:38:07 So, for example, one of the conversations that we had was I said, like, here are three values of mine.
    1:38:11 I really like travel and I want to travel more with you.
    1:38:18 I want you to get to know my friends better because my friends are so important to me and I want those people to really know you and vice versa.
    1:38:24 And I probably want to live in community at some point and I want to know if you would be open to that.
    1:38:31 And now, six or seven years after that conversation, it’s like we’ve done a ton of international travel together.
    1:38:38 Most of my closest friends are his closest friends and we lived in this amazing communal environment for two and a half years during the pandemic.
    1:38:41 And so my husband is super stubborn.
    1:38:42 He’s super independent.
    1:38:44 It’s not that he changed himself.
    1:38:51 It’s that he understood things that were important to me and he was able to give them to me in a way that felt genuine.
    1:38:58 And there’s plenty of things that I’ve done over the years such as, you know, I’m not vegan but, like, there’s not a lot of meat in our home.
    1:39:02 And, like, I’m closer to that or we’re currently raising our daughter to be vegan.
    1:39:10 And so I just feel like we just kept finding that our values were aligned and that we loved hanging out together.
    1:39:13 And, like, I can’t even emphasize enough this idea of mutual trust.
    1:39:19 Like, it’s almost annoying to think about it but it’s like I think my husband’s right most of the time.
    1:39:21 And I think he’s right about really big issues.
    1:39:32 And so I feel so lucky that I have this person as my decision-maker partner where I can really say, like, I have this opportunity.
    1:39:33 This is how far away it is.
    1:39:35 Do you think I should do it?
    1:39:42 And when we talk through it at the end of the conversation, like, I either agree with him or he’s helped me come to the right decision for myself.
    1:39:48 And when people have partners where they don’t really trust or admire or respect them, like, I couldn’t be in that relationship.
    1:39:52 And so I think that as parents, you’re just constantly making decisions.
    1:40:03 And that’s why I feel even closer to him than ever before because I’m like we’re really basically partners in this big class project and it’s been really fun.
    1:40:03 That’s awesome.
    1:40:12 Do you agree with the time boxing or the ultimatum, I guess, as you called it or sort of like these points where you artificially create this?
    1:40:18 One point for people who are not younger and maybe dating again is do you meet the kids?
    1:40:27 Yeah, so I think that the ultimatum, I mean, that term is even loaded at this point because there’s like this Netflix show about the ultimatum.
    1:40:32 And I think when people hear that, they probably have a negative assumption of somebody being like, if you don’t propose by the end of the year, we’re breaking up.
    1:40:34 Like, that doesn’t sound collaborative to me.
    1:40:40 But I actually do think that decision points are very important in life and in relationships.
    1:40:45 So there’s this great research about, you know, people eating cookies.
    1:40:52 So, like, in one part of the experiment, people just eat cookies in a sleeve and they just eat the whole sleeve of cookies until it’s over.
    1:40:54 And then they’re like, damn, I just ate a lot of cookies.
    1:41:00 In another part of the experiment, in between every few cookies are these colored pieces of wax paper.
    1:41:05 And when you get to the piece of colored wax paper, you think like, do I want to keep going or not?
    1:41:10 And it creates a decision point that makes you consciously decide, do I go forward or not?
    1:41:14 And so I think that relationships do offer these decision points.
    1:41:16 Do we want to be exclusive?
    1:41:18 Do we want to move in together?
    1:41:19 Do we want to get married?
    1:41:21 Do we want to have kids?
    1:41:25 And each of those is an opportunity to check in with the other person.
    1:41:37 And so sometimes creating that by saying, hey, let’s go away for a weekend and talk about our future, you’re really shining a light on an important topic that impacts both of you.
    1:41:42 And so maybe I’ll take back the word ultimatum and instead say, I want people to make conscious choices.
    1:41:47 I want them to be deciding, not sliding through relationship transitions.
    1:41:56 How do you have those hard conversations in a secure way where a lot of people might interpret them as like, oh, no, the relationship’s over.
    1:41:57 They close up.
    1:41:58 They get defensive.
    1:42:03 How do you structure them in a way where both people stay open and they’re trying to solve the problem together?
    1:42:08 It’s like we have a problem or we have a decision point, but we’re both on the same side of the table.
    1:42:14 How do we deal with this versus the perception that one person might have that, oh, God, it’s over.
    1:42:16 I’m going to start protecting myself.
    1:42:20 And the minute they do that, it becomes almost a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    1:42:23 So there’s definitely people who are more experts on this than I am.
    1:42:36 Like a lot of people love Marshall Rosenberg who wrote Nonviolent Communication or even I think some of the work by different negotiation experts is really helpful because you say, how can we solve this together?
    1:42:40 So I would really encourage people to seek out those resources.
    1:42:47 But some of the things that I can say are really approaching things from being a team.
    1:42:51 So we as a team are thinking about our financial future.
    1:42:57 And this is, you know, I don’t know if you know Ramit Sethi, but sort of some of Ramit’s work where it’s like, what is our rich life?
    1:43:02 Let’s sit down together and have a fun, generative conversation around our rich life.
    1:43:08 And isn’t that fun to think about what we could achieve together versus, hey, I save a lot more money than you do.
    1:43:10 I don’t want your debts to be mine.
    1:43:11 It’s like we’re adversaries.
    1:43:18 And so how can you come at it from a place of we get to do this really exciting thing of design our lives together.
    1:43:24 Let’s have a conversation about it versus this is a negotiation where one of us wins and the other loses.
    1:43:28 There’s no one size fits all, but how do you – money is a great point, right?
    1:43:36 But like how do you have those conversations when maybe there’s a huge income gap or do you have a joint account or do you have separate accounts?
    1:43:37 And how does that work?
    1:43:41 Does having a large income gap correlate to problems in a relationship?
    1:43:45 I truly do pull on Ramit’s work for a lot of this stuff.
    1:43:51 You know, he has this great podcast where he interviews couples and money and he has a new book, Money for Couples.
    1:43:57 And I just did a newsletter with him where it was about how to have the first money conversation.
    1:44:01 And some of the key tips are things like it’s the first conversation.
    1:44:03 It’s not the only conversation.
    1:44:08 So maybe it’s just where you open up and you talk about what does money mean to you?
    1:44:10 What was your family’s relationship with money?
    1:44:13 When you think about money, what feelings does it evoke?
    1:44:24 And so just having a conversation where more people are sharing versus having a conversation that needs to come to a specific outcome like, well, I make two times what you make, so I should pay two times the rent.
    1:44:28 It’s like you don’t have to get into all the tactical stuff right away.
    1:44:42 I think approaching it as the first of one of many conversations is a really healthy idea because I just went to this event that Ramit had and he said a lot of times people don’t even know what somebody else makes or how much money they have.
    1:44:47 You know, until something like having a kid or, you know, buying a house.
    1:44:53 And it’s like we should be having conversations about sex, money, spirituality, children a lot earlier.
    1:45:02 I like that politics has become very divisive in the last, I don’t know, 10 years, let’s say.
    1:45:06 What’s the difference between having different political views and a deal breaker?
    1:45:12 It’s been so interesting in the 10 years of doing this to see how this has changed.
    1:45:25 So 10 years ago, I did an event with Christian Rutter, one of the founders of OKCupid, and we talked about this question that they have on an OKCupid survey of, you know, do you care about politics?
    1:45:33 And what he told me at the time was it was way less important if the person had the same political views as you as if they cared about politics or not.
    1:45:44 And now, fast forward to this year, I would say that’s no longer the case, that people really do care about political views because it’s moved into the category of values.
    1:45:50 And so people are really thinking about if we share political views, that’s a proxy for do we share values.
    1:45:55 And so for a lot of people, it’s as important or more important to them than something like religion.
    1:46:02 And so at the end of the day, it’s about understanding what really matters to you in your life, what really matters to you in a partner.
    1:46:07 And if politics are something that’s at the top of that list, I think that that’s a legitimate deal breaker.
    1:46:08 Interesting.
    1:46:13 I remember being on a date right before COVID and politics came up and I was like, oh, I’m moderate.
    1:46:17 And she instantly replied, oh, so you can’t make up your mind.
    1:46:18 Oh, that’s interesting.
    1:46:21 And I was like, whoa, that’s not what I said.
    1:46:25 I was like, I’m just sort of like center, you know, I’m not extreme.
    1:46:26 I’m not extreme left.
    1:46:27 I’m not extreme right.
    1:46:28 I’m policy based.
    1:46:29 I’m not party based.
    1:46:35 And it turned into this like really interesting discussion about politics.
    1:46:38 But it was clear from her point of view that that was never going to work.
    1:46:42 Did that change how you presented your political views on future dates?
    1:46:48 Yeah, I was more hesitant to sort of bring them up because it could be such a contentious point.
    1:46:53 But maybe you should bring them up earlier if you know it’s going to be a source of contention.
    1:47:00 But I always think like, let’s avoid some of the more nasty stuff, at least in the first like few dates.
    1:47:07 And then get into more understanding the person and how they approach life versus what do you think of abortion?
    1:47:08 What do you think of politics?
    1:47:10 What do you think of X, Y, Z?
    1:47:13 Because then you’re just, you’re almost looking for an argument, right?
    1:47:18 Yeah, you know, I think it depends on how important those things are to you.
    1:47:25 So if somebody said, I’m Muslim, I really want to raise my kids to be Muslim, talking about that on a first date feels completely fair.
    1:47:26 Totally.
    1:47:31 So if you feel the same way about your political views, then I’m totally fine with somebody talking about that on a first date.
    1:47:35 I don’t think it’s, let’s debate the role taxes play in America.
    1:47:40 And it sounds like to you, having political views in common isn’t as important.
    1:47:42 So I could see you talking about it later.
    1:47:43 But it’s also shocking.
    1:47:47 Like I had a Jewish woman once on a date ask me if I would convert.
    1:47:48 And I’m like, it’s a first date.
    1:47:50 Like, wow, I don’t know.
    1:47:52 I’ve never thought about this, you know?
    1:47:53 Yeah, but then when you-
    1:47:54 But that’s important to you.
    1:47:56 But then what did you think?
    1:47:57 What did you say?
    1:47:58 Exactly what I just said.
    1:47:59 Like, I don’t know.
    1:48:00 I’ve never thought about that.
    1:48:04 I understand from you bringing it up so early that it’s like clearly important to you.
    1:48:08 You know, that’s a really interesting one because I could see it going a few ways.
    1:48:13 So I could see it being where the guy, not just you, but in general, is like, that’s way too forward.
    1:48:14 That’s way too intense.
    1:48:19 The truth is that if I was in love with somebody, I might consider it.
    1:48:22 But being asked on the first date, it makes me so turned off that I’m not interested.
    1:48:24 That is a much better response.
    1:48:25 But I could see, no, no, no.
    1:48:29 But I could see another argument in which the person says like, oh, you know what?
    1:48:35 Actually, being Catholic is just such a big part of my family that like I just cannot ever see that.
    1:48:38 And then the woman gets the information that she needs.
    1:48:42 And so I think a lot of times it’s about how you bring things up.
    1:48:46 You don’t want to paint somebody in a corner where they feel like there’s a wrong answer.
    1:48:51 You want to sort of share and model and make them feel safe saying whatever’s true to them.
    1:48:56 And so, for example, she could have said something like, you know, I’ve been dating for a while.
    1:49:02 And the older I get, the more I realize my Jewish identity is really important to me.
    1:49:05 And I grew up celebrating the holidays.
    1:49:07 I really want to celebrate the holidays with my kids.
    1:49:10 How important is your religion to you?
    1:49:16 Then you get a chance to talk about your experience versus feeling like there’s a right answer.
    1:49:18 Like what would you say to that question on a date?
    1:49:24 I like your response, which is, you know, if I was in love with somebody, I don’t think it would really matter.
    1:49:28 I haven’t thought about it at this point because I haven’t reached that point with somebody.
    1:49:32 But it wouldn’t be a – I don’t think it would be a deal breaker for me.
    1:49:32 But I don’t know.
    1:49:34 Like I haven’t got to that point.
    1:49:39 I think that’s a great answer because she can either say, eh, that’s wishy-washy.
    1:49:40 I think that’s probably a no.
    1:49:41 That’s not good enough.
    1:49:42 Or, okay, he’s open to it.
    1:49:46 Religion is not something where he has his own conflicting thing that he’s attached to.
    1:49:53 And so in most of these situations, I feel like we think so much about like the strategy and the response and the right thing.
    1:50:10 It’s like what if we just prioritize communication skills that allow people to ask questions that are true for them and listen to someone’s answer and have a conversation around it instead of like some AI resume reviewer that’s basically saying, well, they didn’t have the right keywords.
    1:50:12 I’m not going to pass them on to the recruiter.
    1:50:13 I like that approach.
    1:50:20 Is it a red flag if a guy’s best friend is a girl or a girl’s best friend is a guy?
    1:50:22 I don’t care about any of that stuff.
    1:50:23 No, I knew you were going to say that.
    1:50:24 But like statistically has that –
    1:50:24 But like do you?
    1:50:28 No, but I’m just wondering like what does the science say behind that?
    1:50:30 I haven’t seen science behind that.
    1:50:39 But just in my own relationship, I feel like a lot of my closest friends are men and the fact that, you know, just two days ago, I spent like a lot of the day with one of my close male friends.
    1:50:43 And my husband was like, oh, I’m so glad that you’re getting to see David.
    1:50:46 Like make sure you like ask him about this and that.
    1:50:47 Like I want the update.
    1:50:51 And it’s like it’s so attractive to me that he’s so confident.
    1:50:53 But you hang out together, right?
    1:50:54 Sometimes.
    1:50:54 This is a person.
    1:50:59 But like I have plenty of male friends that he’s not particularly close to.
    1:51:06 And from the beginning, I think he’s just understood like Logan is a social creature with a lot of deep friendships.
    1:51:18 And some of them are men and there’s this concept called other significant others, which is this idea that it came from research from Eli Finkel and Elaine Chung at Northwestern.
    1:51:26 And you basically say to a couple, you know, who are the different people that you go to in your lives for different things, whether it’s like talking about TV shows, talking about baseball, career advice.
    1:51:33 And couples that have longer lists of the individual people they go to tend to have these happier, more successful relationships.
    1:51:40 Because instead of putting all the pressure on getting their needs met from one person, they actually have this network that they lean on.
    1:51:49 And so my husband and I really invest in this idea of other significant others to the point where our WhatsApp channel with 30 of our friends is called OSOs.
    1:51:52 And this is truly something that we in our community embody.
    1:52:04 And so I think that when my husband knows I’m having brunch with Mike, he’s thinking, oh, Mike and Logan are just like these creative animals that literally have brunch with post-it notes and a notebook.
    1:52:08 And like they’re just going to jam out in a way that Logan and I don’t.
    1:52:11 And he feels like that makes Logan happy and makes our relationship stronger.
    1:52:12 He doesn’t feel threatened.
    1:52:14 And I think that that’s hard.
    1:52:17 A lot of people do feel threatened or they do feel jealous.
    1:52:25 But the more you can do in your own life to feel confident in yourself and your relationship, people just are drawn to that sort of confidence.
    1:52:27 And it’s better for both partners.
    1:52:31 Tell me more about this OSO WhatsApp group.
    1:52:31 Yeah.
    1:52:34 And like how it’s used and how it started.
    1:52:36 I mentioned communal living.
    1:52:41 So I have these friends named Kristen and Phil who are very visionary people.
    1:52:47 And they are people that are truly living their values and thinking like many steps ahead of most people.
    1:52:56 So in their 20s or maybe it was their early 30s when they were dating, they lived in this communal house that they ran in San Francisco where it was about like nine people in a house.
    1:53:04 They would have dinner together and there was a lot of, you know, shared activities and close relationships.
    1:53:06 And none of this is sexual.
    1:53:09 This is not like – I don’t know if sometimes people’s heads jump to like orgies.
    1:53:09 That’s really not the vibe.
    1:53:11 My mind did not get that.
    1:53:11 Okay, good.
    1:53:19 The vibe is really like people who come home from work and like want to have an interesting dinner conversation with somebody else and like eat the like rice pilaf that they made.
    1:53:25 So then they said, well, you know, we’re getting to be in our mid-30s and people are going to start having kids soon.
    1:53:27 Well, this house is not going to work for kids.
    1:53:34 So they bought a piece of property and they said, we’re going to turn this into the next phase where if people want to have kids, they can have kids.
    1:53:37 And in the beginning, everyone is like this piece of land sucks.
    1:53:39 This is like close to the highway and close to BART.
    1:53:44 But like over the years, everyone flocked there including my husband and me.
    1:53:50 So during the pandemic, when my husband was going through cancer treatment, that’s where we wanted to live.
    1:53:56 We wanted to live with people, with a community of support, with these other significant others.
    1:54:03 And so we really had just this group of people who were either old friends or new friends to rely on.
    1:54:06 And this place now has five kids.
    1:54:08 It’s soon going to have eight kids.
    1:54:15 And people are just truly living in a pretty radical way, which is why do you have to have a concrete house with just you and your partner and your kid?
    1:54:20 Why do all your resources have to go towards making one dinner and doing all the dishes?
    1:54:23 What if you only had to cook every 14 days?
    1:54:27 What if you could pull your resources and have a hot tub, a cold plunge, a sauna?
    1:54:32 Like that stuff is doable when people live in this alternative environment.
    1:54:36 It’s incredible because we tend to do that in Western world.
    1:54:40 As we get older, once we retire, we go to a communal level.
    1:54:40 Truly, yeah.
    1:54:47 And, you know, there’s plenty of jokes there about like, you know, a millennial retirement community or I think someone’s called like a rave for introverts.
    1:54:48 They have a lot of funny names for it.
    1:54:54 But the point is that this is a group of people who have decided life is better when you’re living with your friends.
    1:54:57 They’re not optimizing for the maximum square footage.
    1:55:00 They’re not maximizing for the toniest neighborhood.
    1:55:07 They’re really saying, I feel happy when I see a friend in the middle of the day without social coordination.
    1:55:10 I feel happy when I have an interesting dinner conversation.
    1:55:12 I love being able to host friends here.
    1:55:21 And now having children there, people just feel like, oh, well, I never had to hire a babysitter because like I’ll watch this parent’s kid or they’ll watch my kids.
    1:55:23 And like I no longer live there.
    1:55:27 I live like in a house like 10-minute walk away.
    1:55:32 But I truly feel like the people who are there are way less stressed than the average parent that I know.
    1:55:35 I think that that’s true even if you’re not living in that community.
    1:55:39 I mean, as a single parent, it takes a village to raise your children.
    1:55:43 And having that help and social support network, easily accessible.
    1:55:47 And I like how you mentioned uncoordinated kind of social events.
    1:55:47 Totally.
    1:55:51 I remember I used to live in the neighborhood of a lot of my close friends.
    1:55:51 Yeah.
    1:55:52 And then I moved.
    1:55:52 Yeah.
    1:55:58 And I missed those impromptu sort of wines or walk-bys or stuff.
    1:55:59 Now it requires more coordination.
    1:56:04 So there’s a lot of research that shows that people are happier if they live within a five-minute walk of their friends.
    1:56:09 So Phil, one of the guys who started this community, he’s now built an entire company around this premise.
    1:56:11 And the company is called Live Near Friends.
    1:56:16 And it’s basically either how can you buy property with a friend or near a friend or even like rent something nearby.
    1:56:28 It’s basically like instead of making your housing based on your commute or, you know, your favorite coffee shop, like why are we not centering our relationships?
    1:56:28 Yeah.
    1:56:29 I like that.
    1:56:33 I think often it comes down to commute or cost, right?
    1:56:44 We often trade off money to live farther away from the city, increasing our commute so that we can get a bigger house or I don’t know what the variables are because I don’t resonate with that.
    1:56:46 So we’re in a relationship.
    1:56:54 What are the questions that we should be asking ourselves as we decide whether we want to commit to this person for the rest of our lives?
    1:56:56 Yeah, this is really hard.
    1:57:02 I mean, the reason why I love that I have a background in behavioral science is that it’s really about,
    1:57:05 the science of decision making.
    1:57:08 And so much of a relationship is, am I ready to date?
    1:57:09 Who should I date?
    1:57:10 Should I keep dating this person?
    1:57:11 Should we move in together?
    1:57:12 Should we get married?
    1:57:15 And so each of these is a pivotal point in your life.
    1:57:19 And so the first thing I would say is just having a lot of honest conversations.
    1:57:30 So before my husband and I got married, we did—there’s a great book called Eight Dates by the Gottmans, who are sort of the kings and queens of relationship science and really research-backed.
    1:57:34 And in the book, there’s a series of dates that you should go on to get to know your partner.
    1:57:36 And so there’s conversations about money.
    1:57:38 There’s conversations around family.
    1:57:41 There’s conversations about hopes and dreams in the future.
    1:57:48 And I did all of the dates with my husband sort of as this, like, project where I was blogging about it.
    1:57:59 But I’m really glad I had that container that forced me to do the dates because we got so much out of them that I think really did lead us to get engaged and kind of build a life together.
    1:58:08 And so I think that the questions differ per person, but a lot of it is just sitting down and think about, like, what does our life look in the future—look like in the future?
    1:58:10 Like, do you plan on working?
    1:58:11 What are your values?
    1:58:12 Do you want to have kids?
    1:58:15 What are things from your childhood that you really want to repeat?
    1:58:18 What are things about your childhood that you want to do the opposite of?
    1:58:22 And I think sometimes when we’re so in love with someone, we just assume we’re on the same page.
    1:58:32 And so just kind of echoing our earlier sentiment that I think it’s about having these intentional conversations to decide, is this somebody who I could really build a life with?
    1:58:37 The other key thing is to understand that people often think, am I making the right choice?
    1:58:42 There’s not really such thing as the right choice.
    1:58:43 I don’t believe in soulmates.
    1:58:51 It’s—I think that you could have many great relationships with many great people, and you get to decide, is this the person that I want to do it with?
    1:58:56 And so, of course, you can think about the lives that you didn’t live and all the other stories that you could have written.
    1:59:01 But instead, I think think about the fact that this is a story that I am excited to write.
    1:59:04 Your husband sounds like an awesome man.
    1:59:04 He’s great.
    1:59:08 How do we end that relationship if we decide it’s not for us?
    1:59:09 But we’ve been in the relationship.
    1:59:15 So it’s not after a first date, but maybe we’ve been dating three months or six months, and we’ve reached one of these points.
    1:59:16 We’ve had these conversations.
    1:59:19 Now, how do we respectfully break up?
    1:59:19 Okay.
    1:59:22 We talked today about how painful rejection is.
    1:59:32 And so I think the first guiding principle for breaking up with someone really should be empathy and just understanding and really imagining how painful it is to be broken up with in most situations.
    1:59:35 And so a few things to keep in mind.
    1:59:44 So one of them is there’s this rule kind of in corporate America that if you’re going to lay somebody off or give them a bad performance review, it shouldn’t be the first time that they’ve gotten that feedback.
    1:59:51 So I think it’s much more fair to let somebody know throughout the relationship if something isn’t working.
    2:00:03 I think it’s so painful for people when somebody breaks up with them and says, you know, you love going to restaurants and city culture, and I love camping and skiing, but since we’ve been dating, I haven’t gotten to do any of those things.
    2:00:04 And then the person’s like, what?
    2:00:06 You never brought that up once.
    2:00:08 Like, of course we could have made time for that.
    2:00:10 Why were you keeping that from me?
    2:00:16 And so I think just understanding that as things are happening and coming up, share them with your partner so that you can tackle them together.
    2:00:21 Maybe it comes to the same outcome of breaking up, but don’t kind of hide all of that.
    2:00:23 Until the moment that you break up with them.
    2:00:27 Another thing to keep in mind is I don’t think it’s the opportunity to give somebody feedback.
    2:00:30 I think that can be very painful for somebody.
    2:00:34 So sometimes in a breakup scenario, the person will be like, tell me what I did wrong.
    2:00:35 Tell me when you fell out of love with me.
    2:00:44 I don’t find that that’s helpful unless there’s something really specific like, I constantly felt like you were breaking plans with me or, you know, something that they can change.
    2:00:45 You were unreliable.
    2:00:46 You were unreliable.
    2:00:49 But a lot of times it’s like you just weren’t a match.
    2:00:54 And whatever you say to them is really going to stick in their mind and they’re going to go over it a million times.
    2:00:56 So I just sort of find that that’s unhelpful.
    2:00:58 There’s also this idea.
    2:00:59 Do you know Hélène de Botton?
    2:01:01 His work.
    2:01:11 So he has this concept of like the nice breakup person where it’s like I’ll keep being in touch with you after the breakup because it makes me feel like I’m a nice person, which makes me feel better.
    2:01:16 But it’s actually really about respecting your boundaries, which is like it’s probably better for you if we’re not as in touch.
    2:01:26 And so really letting you define that or not trying to sort of assuage my own guilt by like being in touch with you all the time, which actually makes things harder for you.
    2:01:37 So I have a conversation guide in my book for how to have a breakup conversation, which has a lot of things about like preparing for it in advance.
    2:01:39 So when are you going to have this conversation?
    2:01:43 You know, if somebody has a big presentation on Monday, like don’t do it Sunday night.
    2:01:48 Is this person able to get in touch with some friends or family to support them afterwards?
    2:02:00 So just really trying to soften the difficulty of the situation by setting them up to get support from other people, sharing with them kind of how you’re feeling but not giving feedback.
    2:02:07 And then I think honestly not having sex with them and giving them space to honor the fact that this is challenging and they need to move on.
    2:02:08 I like that.
    2:02:10 I’d be remiss if I didn’t ask about dating profiles.
    2:02:15 What are the tips that people, the most common things that people get wrong?
    2:02:16 Yeah.
    2:02:20 So I’ve done a ton of research on this and I can tell you some of the main tips.
    2:02:25 So your dating app profile is sort of like your billboard.
    2:02:32 And if you were buying a billboard, let’s say on the one-on-one in San Francisco, like you would, of course, think a lot about what you’re going to put on it.
    2:02:35 And I think people should give the same amount of attention to their Hinge profile.
    2:02:39 So, for example, you are telling a story about who you are.
    2:02:47 So let’s say that you have a side of yourself that loves anime and there’s a side of yourself that’s passionate about baseball.
    2:02:51 If all of your pictures are from Comic-Con, I’m not going to see that.
    2:02:55 So really, I like to teach people this concept of your three big things.
    2:02:58 What are three big things about yourself that you want to express in your profile?
    2:03:03 And then make sure that through your prompts and through your photos, you’re getting those things across.
    2:03:07 Another thing is having a mixture of humor and vulnerability.
    2:03:11 You don’t want to be all jokes and you don’t want to be all super serious.
    2:03:13 You want to show people different sides of yourself.
    2:03:17 You also don’t want to fall into these dating app cliches.
    2:03:22 So there’s this one on Hinge, like I’m overly competitive about everything.
    2:03:24 And people have seen that all the time.
    2:03:27 So like at best, they sort of just ignore it.
    2:03:28 And at worst, they’re like, oh, cliche.
    2:03:30 Like I’m not interested in that person.
    2:03:39 There’s actually a new feature that just came out on Hinge called prompt feedback, which uses AI to kind of give you personalized private feedback on your prompt responses.
    2:03:43 So like if you give a one word answer or it’s cliche, it’ll say like, dig a little bit deeper.
    2:03:45 You know, what are you overly competitive about?
    2:03:48 So hopefully that’s going to kind of raise all profiles.
    2:03:55 Other do’s and don’ts, you know, don’t have one of those where’s Waldo photos where we can’t tell which one you are.
    2:03:56 People don’t like that.
    2:03:59 In general, selfies perform worse.
    2:04:05 If you have sunglasses or filters or you’re wearing ski goggles, it’s really hard to tell what you look like.
    2:04:08 So just like make it easy for the person to tell what you look like.
    2:04:15 Have a photo of, you know, a clear headshot, photo of your full body, photo of you doing something that you love.
    2:04:21 And then a photo with friends and family, but not so many that we can’t tell which one is you.
    2:04:30 But in general, it’s really about using it as an opportunity to share who you are, what you’re looking for, and what kind of person you want to meet.
    2:04:31 Should you smile?
    2:04:32 Smile’s good.
    2:04:34 Should you have a pet?
    2:04:36 If you have a pet, sure.
    2:04:38 But, you know, I think that when people…
    2:04:41 You know what came to mind there is like Tim Ferriss did this thing.
    2:04:47 I think I remember this correctly where he tested like 8,000 photos or something crazy.
    2:04:51 And the one that was most successful was him like carrying a cat on the cover.
    2:04:55 I have seen over the years different research about people with cats, people with dogs.
    2:04:59 When I hear those things, I’m just like, do you have a fucking cat or dog?
    2:05:02 Like if it’s really important to you, put it in there.
    2:05:04 But like don’t dog bait somebody.
    2:05:06 If you don’t…
    2:05:06 I just made that up.
    2:05:11 But it’s like if you have a friend with a cute dog, like putting the dog in your picture, it’s like that’s not representative.
    2:05:15 It’s like show us authentically what spending time with you would be like.
    2:05:22 So if you once went on a hike, but you actually spent every Saturday night playing board games, take a picture of board game night.
    2:05:24 Don’t show that one hiking photo.
    2:05:32 And so I think the dog or cat thing kind of fits into that overall advice of authentically show us who you are.
    2:05:34 And if that involves your dog, great.
    2:05:38 But if not, like don’t take 8,000 pictures, some of which have a stranger’s dog in them.
    2:05:42 I always end on the same question, which is what is success for you?
    2:05:48 Success for me is balance.
    2:05:53 Feeling like I’m not forsaking my health for the sake of career.
    2:05:57 Not feeling like I’m forsaking my husband for the sake of our daughter.
    2:06:01 Not feeling like I’m forsaking my family for the sake of my friends.
    2:06:07 And really just knowing my priorities and having that reflected in how I spend my time.
    2:06:09 Thank you so much.
    2:06:11 This was an awesome conversation.
    2:06:11 Thanks for having me.
    2:06:12 I really enjoyed it.
    2:06:15 Thank you for listening and learning with me.
    2:06:19 If you’ve enjoyed this episode, consider leaving a five-star rating or review.
    2:06:23 It’s a small action on your part that helps us reach more curious minds.
    2:06:33 You can stay connected with Farnham Street on social media and explore more insights at fs.blog, where you’ll find past episodes, our mental models, and thought-provoking articles.
    2:06:35 While you’re there, check out my book, Clear Thinking.
    2:06:42 Through engaging stories and actionable mental models, it helps you bridge the gap between intention and action.
    2:06:46 So your best decisions become your default decisions.
    2:06:47 Until next time.

    Most people date the wrong way. They chase the spark, mistake attraction for compatibility, and expect their partners to read their minds. Then they wonder why relationships don’t last. Logan Ury thinks about dating differently. As the Director of Relationship Science at Hinge, she’s spent years studying what actually makes relationships work. Her findings will change the way you think about attraction, communication, and commitment. In this conversation, Logan reveals why the spark is overrated, how to optimize your dating profile, and the one thing (actually, 8) you must do after every first date. We break down attachment theory, orbiting, polyamory, and having hard conversations in a healthy way. We get answers to questions like: “what’s an appropriate age gap?” and “what to say if you’re not interested after a date?” Plus, Logan shares how she made the decision to be with her husband and the importance of “other significant others.”   

     

    If you want to stop wasting time on the wrong people and start building something real, this episode is for you.  

    (2:49) First Dates and the Slow Burn

    (8:07) The Post-Date 8

    (14:30) Dating Like a Scientist

    (15:50) The Height thing…

    (18:56) The Spark vs Lust

    (26:35) Fear of Rejection

    (29:01) Understanding Attachment Theory

    (39:20) Navigating Online Dating

    (41:36) Effective Communication in Dating

    (51:58) Texting Etiquette

    (01:05:33) Dealing with Rejection

    (01:08:44) Polyamory

    (01:13:32) Orbiting

    (01:30:45) Logan’s Story of Meeting Her Husband

    (01:37:12) Navigating Crucial Decision Points in Relationships

    (01:41:48) Having Difficult Conversations in Relationships

    (01:50:15) Other Significant Others

    (01:59:05) Breaking Up Respectfully

    (02:02:08) Tips for Creating Dating Profiles

     

    Logan Ury is a behavioral scientist, dating coach, and the Director of Relationship Science at Hinge. She’s the bestselling author of How Not to Die Alone. 

    Newsletter – The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at fs.blog/newsletter

    Upgrade — If you want to hear my thoughts and reflections at the end of the episode, join our membership: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠ and get your own private feed.

    Watch on YouTube: @tkppodcast

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  • #218 Outliers: Estée Lauder — A Success Story

    Most people hear “Estée Lauder” and think of cosmetics—lipstick, perfume, face cream. But the real story isn’t just about makeup—it’s about a woman being an unstoppable force. Estée Lauder didn’t just build a beauty brand; she rewrote the rules of an industry. She turned rejection into fuel, defied industry gatekeepers, and transformed a homemade face cream into a multi-billion-dollar global powerhouse. When department stores refused to stock her products, she created a demand they couldn’t ignore. When experts said women wouldn’t spend $115 on face cream, she proved them wrong. When competitors copied her formulas, she didn’t fight them—she outmaneuvered them. Her real genius wasn’t in chemistry, but in understanding human psychology, persistence, and the power of storytelling. 

    This is a story for anyone who’s ever been told “no,” felt underestimated, or wanted to build something that lasts. Learn how thinking differently can transform an industry. 

    This week I’ve made my reflections available to everyone—you’ll hear them at the end of the episode. If you want to hear my thoughts and reflections at the end of every episode, join our membership: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠ and get your own private feed.

    This episode is for informational purposes only and is based on Estée Lauder’s incredible 1985 autobiography Estée: A Success Story.

    Newsletter – The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at fs.blog/newsletter

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  • #217 Josh Wolfe: Human Advantage in the World of AI

    AI transcript
    0:00:02 Look at AI right now.
    0:00:03 Billions of dollars being spent.
    0:00:07 The flurry of all of this benefits us as consumers,
    0:00:08 always and everywhere.
    0:00:10 Just wait and they’ll compete and compete
    0:00:12 and it will accrue to us as users.
    0:00:15 How do we create an unfair advantage in a world of AI?
    0:00:18 I think the limits to human intelligence
    0:00:20 are rooted in our biology.
    0:00:23 AI’s over time will understand us in many ways better
    0:00:25 than we understand ourselves.
    0:00:27 We can still be computers and chess, done.
    0:00:29 We can still be them and go, done.
    0:00:30 We can be them and video games, done.
    0:00:32 Okay, but we still have creativity, done.
    0:00:34 All these things have been trained
    0:00:38 on the sum total of all human creation.
    0:00:40 And now they’re being trained on the sum total
    0:00:42 of human creation plus artificial creation.
    0:00:46 I’m absolutely convinced that we are going to have machines
    0:00:48 doing science 24/7.
    0:00:50 I just think it’s gonna be part of the total overture
    0:00:55 over of creation and I think it’s a beautiful thing.
    0:00:57 (upbeat music)
    0:01:00 (upbeat music)
    0:01:11 Welcome to The Knowledge Project.
    0:01:13 I’m your host, Shane Parish.
    0:01:15 In a world where knowledge is power,
    0:01:18 this podcast is your toolkit for mastering the best
    0:01:20 what other people have already figured out.
    0:01:22 If you want to take your learning to the next level,
    0:01:24 consider joining our membership program
    0:01:27 at fs.log/membership.
    0:01:29 As a member, you’ll get my personal reflections
    0:01:32 at the end of every episode.
    0:01:35 Early access to episodes, no ads, including this,
    0:01:38 exclusive content, hand edited transcripts,
    0:01:39 and so much more.
    0:01:42 Check out the link in the show notes for more.
    0:01:44 While others ask what’s trending,
    0:01:48 Josh Wolf asks, what seems impossible today?
    0:01:51 He’s built a career betting on scientific breakthroughs
    0:01:53 that most people don’t believe can happen.
    0:01:55 As co-founder of Lux Capital,
    0:01:57 he’s backed companies cleaning up nuclear waste
    0:02:00 and building brain computer interfaces.
    0:02:02 But here’s the contradiction.
    0:02:03 Despite investing in technology
    0:02:05 that could make humans obsolete,
    0:02:09 Josh is profoundly optimistic about human potential.
    0:02:12 His thinking challenges conventional wisdom.
    0:02:15 While most see AI as automation and threats to humanity,
    0:02:19 Josh sees it as a catalyst for human achievement.
    0:02:22 In this conversation, we explore this paradox,
    0:02:25 diving deep into how technological evolution
    0:02:28 can amplify rather than diminish what makes us human.
    0:02:30 From geopolitical power shifts
    0:02:32 to the future of human creativity,
    0:02:35 Josh reveals the exact frameworks he uses
    0:02:36 for seeing what others miss
    0:02:39 and betting on the seemingly impossible future.
    0:02:42 It’s time to listen and learn.
    0:02:48 – Start with what you’re obsessed with today.
    0:02:49 What’s on your mind?
    0:02:52 – Well, first and foremost, kids and family.
    0:02:54 Trying to be a good dad, good husband.
    0:02:57 Technologically obsessed with so many different things.
    0:02:59 We were just in a partnership meeting.
    0:03:01 And probably the most interesting thing at the moment
    0:03:05 is thinking about the speed of certain technologies,
    0:03:06 like the actual physical technologies
    0:03:08 and where the bottlenecks are.
    0:03:12 So in biology, you’ve got all kinds of reactions,
    0:03:14 nature figured out, evolution figured out,
    0:03:15 enzymes and catalysts and things
    0:03:16 that can speed up reactions.
    0:03:20 But you can move faster than the speed of biology.
    0:03:22 Now you think about AI, total different field,
    0:03:26 but the same sort of underlying philosophical principle.
    0:03:31 If you’ve tried ChatGPT operator,
    0:03:35 it can only move at the speed of the web.
    0:03:37 And at that it’s sort of with latency a little bit slow.
    0:03:40 So we’re thinking about what are the technologies
    0:03:41 that can accelerate these things
    0:03:43 that have these natural almost physics limits.
    0:03:46 And even if those limits are biological or digital.
    0:03:48 So that is something that at the moment I’m obsessed with
    0:03:50 in part because I have ignorance about it.
    0:03:51 And when I have ignorance about it,
    0:03:53 my competitive spirit says,
    0:03:54 how do I get smart about this?
    0:03:56 How do I get some differentiated insight?
    0:03:57 How do I know what everybody else thinks
    0:04:00 and then find the sort of white space answer?
    0:04:03 So that’s one big thing, obsessed with geopolitics.
    0:04:08 It is the great game, everything from US-China competition
    0:04:14 to Iran, Israel, access of religious conflict,
    0:04:17 the Sahel and Maghreb in Africa,
    0:04:19 which is not an area that a lot of people
    0:04:21 talk about or think about that I believe
    0:04:26 with low probability, super high magnitude import
    0:04:28 is going to become the next Afghanistan,
    0:04:30 that that region in the Sahel,
    0:04:34 all these coups and cascades of these coups of failed states
    0:04:36 where you have Russian mercenaries,
    0:04:39 violent extremists, Chinese CCP coming in
    0:04:42 with infrastructure and influence,
    0:04:45 European colonial powers being kicked out
    0:04:48 against this backdrop of brilliant scientists
    0:04:51 and engineers and technologists that went to HBS or Stanford
    0:04:53 and worked at Metta and Google and are going back
    0:04:57 and particularly in like Ghana and Kenya and Nigeria
    0:04:58 or building businesses.
    0:05:03 So that continent is going to be a truly contested space
    0:05:07 for future in progress and for utter chaos and terrorism.
    0:05:09 So yeah, it’s a widespread of stuff
    0:05:11 that I’m probably currently obsessed with.
    0:05:12 – Let’s talk about all those things.
    0:05:14 Let’s start with sort of diving in.
    0:05:16 You mentioned chat, GBT operator.
    0:05:16 – Yes.
    0:05:18 – And the limitations sort of being,
    0:05:19 we’re moving at the speed of the web.
    0:05:21 At what point do you think that we’re,
    0:05:24 those systems are all designed for humans?
    0:05:26 At what point do they become designed for AI first
    0:05:27 and then humans are using them
    0:05:30 or do we just have two simultaneous interfaces?
    0:05:31 – I think it’s going to be both.
    0:05:34 I think that there’s always this like ignorance arbitrage
    0:05:37 where somebody figures out that there’s an opportunity
    0:05:39 to take advantage and improve a system
    0:05:41 while people don’t understand it.
    0:05:42 And so I think that there are people
    0:05:46 that are probably going to launch redesign businesses
    0:05:48 where they say we will optimize your web pages
    0:05:50 just like people did for search engine optimization
    0:05:53 when Google rose that you had to be more relevant
    0:05:54 because Google was so important.
    0:05:56 Google was influencing whether or not people would see you
    0:05:57 or discover you.
    0:06:00 And so if there are certain tasks like open table
    0:06:02 or restaurants or shopping,
    0:06:05 they are now going to start to shift their user interface
    0:06:08 not just for the clicks of a human,
    0:06:09 but for the clicks of an AI
    0:06:11 that’s doing research on the best product.
    0:06:14 And the way that those are going to negotiate
    0:06:17 and in some cases influence or trick the judgment
    0:06:20 and the reasoning of the AI is really interesting.
    0:06:23 So I think that that is probably the next domain
    0:06:25 where those things are going to get better, faster,
    0:06:27 they’re going to have more compute,
    0:06:29 but then people are going to be redesigning
    0:06:31 some of these experiences, not for us
    0:06:33 and the user interface of humans, but machine to machine.
    0:06:35 And you’re already starting to see this
    0:06:36 where there was one element of like
    0:06:39 in instantiation of R1 communicating with another
    0:06:41 in R1, but the language that they were commuting
    0:06:43 was not English or Chinese or even traditional code.
    0:06:45 It was like this weird almost alien language.
    0:06:48 And so I think you can see a bunch of that.
    0:06:49 There’s another adjacent theme
    0:06:51 which I think is also really interesting,
    0:06:54 which is AI portends the death of APIs.
    0:06:58 So APIs allow Meta with their Metaglasses or Orion
    0:07:03 to be able to communicate with Uber and Spotify
    0:07:04 through the backend, through software.
    0:07:07 But increasingly those things are complicated,
    0:07:09 they’re hard to negotiate, there’s a lot of legal,
    0:07:11 there’s API calls, there’s restrictions,
    0:07:13 there’s privacy, there’s controls.
    0:07:14 But if you’re one of these companies that are like,
    0:07:16 I don’t want to go through all of that.
    0:07:19 Can I just use AI to pretend that I’m a user?
    0:07:20 And in fact, I had this experience
    0:07:22 where I was using Operator
    0:07:25 and I had this moral dilemma for a split second.
    0:07:28 Do I click to confirm that I’m not a bot
    0:07:29 because I had to take control over it
    0:07:30 because the bot actually was trying
    0:07:32 to do my research on behalf of me.
    0:07:36 And so you see a world where APIs
    0:07:39 that have been the plumbing of everything in SAS
    0:07:41 and software and negotiating behind the scenes
    0:07:44 may start to lose influence and power to AIs
    0:07:47 that are able to basically just negotiate on the front end
    0:07:48 as though they were a user.
    0:07:50 So I think that that whole domain
    0:07:54 is going to very rapidly evolve in like a quarter or two.
    0:07:57 – You mentioned sort of the limitations
    0:07:59 like biology moves at a certain speed.
    0:08:01 There’s a couple of subset of questions here,
    0:08:04 but one is where’s the limitation in AI growth right now?
    0:08:07 It seems like we have energy as a key input.
    0:08:10 We have compute as a key input.
    0:08:13 And then we have data slash algorithms
    0:08:15 as like the next key input.
    0:08:16 What am I missing?
    0:08:18 What’s the limitation on those?
    0:08:20 – Well, start with conventional wisdom
    0:08:21 which has heretofore been correct,
    0:08:23 which is you need more compute,
    0:08:26 you need more capital, scaling laws for AI,
    0:08:29 just throw more GPUs and processors and money
    0:08:31 and ultimately energy to support that
    0:08:33 and you will get better and better breakthroughs.
    0:08:35 The counter to that, which you’re seeing in some cases
    0:08:37 with open source or people that have now trained
    0:08:38 on some of the large models
    0:08:41 is that there’s gonna be a shift towards model efficiency.
    0:08:43 And so that’s number one,
    0:08:44 that people are gonna figure out
    0:08:46 how do we do these more efficiently with less compute.
    0:08:49 Number two, which is a big sort of contrary thesis
    0:08:53 that I have is that a significant portion of inference.
    0:08:55 So, you know, if you break down training,
    0:08:57 you still need large 100,000 ish clusters
    0:08:59 of each 100 top performing chips.
    0:09:00 It’s expensive.
    0:09:03 Only the hyperscalers, heretofore have been able to do that.
    0:09:04 You can do some training
    0:09:06 if you’re using things like together compute
    0:09:08 in some of our companies without having to do that yourself.
    0:09:12 Sort of like going back to on-prem versus colo
    0:09:15 versus cloud transition 15 years ago.
    0:09:17 But I think that you’re gonna end up doing
    0:09:20 a lot of inference on device.
    0:09:22 Meaning instead of going to the cloud
    0:09:25 and typing a query, like 30 to 50% of your inference
    0:09:27 may be on an Apple or an Android device.
    0:09:29 And if I had to bet today,
    0:09:32 it’s Android because of the architecture over Apple.
    0:09:33 But if Apple can do some smart things,
    0:09:35 maybe they can catch up to this,
    0:09:37 but some of the design choices and the closed aspects
    0:09:40 which have been great for privacy as a feature
    0:09:42 may hurt them in this wave.
    0:09:44 And you could already see like perplexity
    0:09:46 can actually be an assistant on my Android device.
    0:09:49 I carry both so I can understand both operating systems.
    0:09:51 You can’t do that yet on iOS and Apple.
    0:09:52 But here’s the insight.
    0:09:56 If 30 to 50% of my inference is my cached emails
    0:09:59 and my chats and my WhatsApp
    0:10:01 and all the stuff that I keep on my device,
    0:10:04 my photos, my health data, my calendar,
    0:10:08 then the memory players may play a much bigger role.
    0:10:10 So now you have Samsung, SK Hynex, Micron
    0:10:12 that are important here.
    0:10:15 If I had to come up with somewhat pejorative analogy,
    0:10:18 I think Samsung is going to be more like Intel.
    0:10:20 I think that they’re just a little bit sclerotic
    0:10:22 and bureaucratic and slow moving
    0:10:24 and it’s gonna sort of ebb and decline.
    0:10:27 I think Micron is a US company
    0:10:30 which is going to be more constrained
    0:10:33 by restrictions that are put on export control.
    0:10:35 And I think SK being a Korean company
    0:10:37 is gonna be able to skirt those
    0:10:40 in the same way that Nvidia has with distribution
    0:10:42 to China through Singapore and Indonesia and Malaysia,
    0:10:43 which is now being investigated.
    0:10:47 But the memory players are likely to be ascendant.
    0:10:49 And so what Here2For was a bottleneck on compute
    0:10:52 could shift attention, talent, money
    0:10:55 into new architectures where memory plays a key role
    0:10:58 on small models on device for inference.
    0:11:00 – I’ve always thought of memory as like a commodity.
    0:11:02 It doesn’t matter if I have a M-U chip
    0:11:03 or a scan desk of Samsung.
    0:11:05 – And that’s what people thought about CPUs back in the day
    0:11:08 and then GPUs for just traditional video graphics.
    0:11:11 And then the AI researchers came and said,
    0:11:12 “Well, wait a second.
    0:11:14 We can run these convolutional neural nets on these GPUs.”
    0:11:17 And they reached into somebody else’s domain
    0:11:19 of PlayStation and Xbox and pulled them in
    0:11:22 and suddenly it lit up this phenomenon
    0:11:25 that turned Nvidia from 15 billion
    0:11:27 to two and a half or three trillion.
    0:11:31 Do you think Nvidia has got a long runway?
    0:11:34 – I think that their ability with that market capitalization
    0:11:36 and that cash and the margin that they have,
    0:11:38 they can reinvent and buy a lot of things.
    0:11:41 So I think Jensen is a thoughtful capital allocator.
    0:11:44 I think he’s benefited and caught lightning in a bottle
    0:11:45 over the past 10 years.
    0:11:47 And now just particularly the past six,
    0:11:49 I would not count Nvidia out.
    0:11:52 Now, what’s the upside from two and a half or three trillion
    0:11:53 to five trillion or 10 trillion?
    0:11:56 Or do they go back down to, I have no idea.
    0:11:58 So that’s more of a fundamental valuation
    0:11:59 based on the speculation.
    0:12:01 But if you have 90, 95% margins
    0:12:04 and your chips are $30,000,
    0:12:07 could you shrink them down and sell for $3,000
    0:12:09 and take small margins but get more volume?
    0:12:12 And this was some of the debate that I think happened
    0:12:14 with the release of DeepSeq where you had Satya
    0:12:16 basically talking about Jeven’s paradox
    0:12:19 that any one thing might get more efficient
    0:12:21 but the result is not that you have less demand.
    0:12:24 In aggregate, you have much more demand.
    0:12:26 The classic example of this is like refrigerators.
    0:12:29 Single refrigerator back in the day was an energy hog.
    0:12:32 All of a sudden you make these things more efficient
    0:12:33 and what happens, it becomes much cheaper.
    0:12:37 So if something’s cheaper, you’re gonna buy more of it
    0:12:39 and they shrunk refrigerators down.
    0:12:41 And so now everybody had one in their garage
    0:12:44 and in their office and in their basement.
    0:12:46 And so the aggregate demand for electricity
    0:12:49 and then for all the components and coils and refrigerant
    0:12:50 went up, not down.
    0:12:52 Same thing with bandwidth.
    0:12:56 If you have a 56K Bod modem, which was like my first modem,
    0:12:58 you know, dial up internet and all that kind of stuff
    0:13:01 on CompuServe and, you know, then you go to a T3
    0:13:03 and fiber optic, you know, at the speed of light,
    0:13:06 it is way more efficient but your usage now is just huge.
    0:13:09 You’re streaming 4K videos and watching Netflix
    0:13:11 and trading on Bloomberg.
    0:13:14 Whereas if you actually want to decrease use,
    0:13:17 the non-obvious thing that you would wanna do
    0:13:18 is actually slow down speed.
    0:13:20 I mean, put me on a 56K Bod modem today
    0:13:22 and just like pull out my hair and never use it.
    0:13:23 You couldn’t even use Gmail on that.
    0:13:24 – Right, exactly. – Exactly.
    0:13:26 Where do you think intelligence
    0:13:28 is the limiting factor of progress?
    0:13:30 – Human intelligence?
    0:13:34 I think that the great thing about us is that we are,
    0:13:36 I don’t know, 60 or 70% predictable
    0:13:41 in that so many of the foibles and virtues and vices
    0:13:45 of man and woman are Shakespearean.
    0:13:46 You know, there are hundreds of, I mean,
    0:13:48 tens of thousands of years old from modern evolution,
    0:13:52 but with that we are still irrational.
    0:13:53 You know, Danny Kahneman was a friend.
    0:13:56 Danny passed last year, just an amazing guy,
    0:13:58 but he could document all the heuristics
    0:14:01 and all the biases which you study and write about.
    0:14:04 And he’s like, I’m still a victim of them.
    0:14:06 Even knowing them doesn’t really insulate me
    0:14:08 from falling to them.
    0:14:09 It’s just like an optical illusion.
    0:14:11 You can know it’s an optical illusion,
    0:14:13 but you still see it and you still fall for it.
    0:14:17 So I think the limits to human intelligence
    0:14:19 are rooted in our biology.
    0:14:22 And we have all of these embodied intelligence
    0:14:26 that have sort of been externalized in calculators
    0:14:29 and in computers that help us to overcome that.
    0:14:32 And I certainly feel today that a significant portion
    0:14:35 of my day that might be spent with a colleague
    0:14:36 riffing on something.
    0:14:39 And sometimes that’s like great for a muse
    0:14:41 or tapping into information or intelligence
    0:14:43 or some tidbit or a piece of gossip
    0:14:45 or an experience that they had.
    0:14:47 And that’s why like the diversity of cognitive diversity
    0:14:49 is really important.
    0:14:51 I’m complimenting that with all day chats
    0:14:54 with perplexity and Claude and open AI
    0:14:58 and any number of LLMs that might hallucinate
    0:15:01 just like a friend and might be wrong about something,
    0:15:03 but might give me some profound insight.
    0:15:05 – I think what I’m interested in is
    0:15:08 at what point will machines like if intelligence
    0:15:10 is the limiting factor on progress
    0:15:12 in certain domains or areas.
    0:15:15 It strikes me that in the near future,
    0:15:19 the machines will be able to surpass human intelligence.
    0:15:20 – For sure.
    0:15:21 – And if that’s the case,
    0:15:25 then those areas are rife for either disruption
    0:15:26 or rapid progress.
    0:15:30 – Well, I think, you know what Peter Drucker never imagined
    0:15:32 when he was talking about knowledge workers
    0:15:33 in the shift from like blue collar workers
    0:15:35 to white collar workers was that machines
    0:15:38 would actually most threaten those professions.
    0:15:42 And so you take some of the most elite professions, doctors.
    0:15:46 The ability to do a differential diagnosis today.
    0:15:47 I take my medical records as soon as I get them
    0:15:50 from top doctors and I still put them into LLMs
    0:15:52 to see what did they miss?
    0:15:55 And sometimes it unearths some interesting correlations.
    0:15:58 Is there a scientific paper from the past 10 years
    0:16:00 that might have bearing on this particular finding
    0:16:01 or something in a blood test?
    0:16:03 So that is really interesting.
    0:16:07 Lawyers, languages, code, multi-billion dollar lawsuits
    0:16:09 sometimes come down to the single placement
    0:16:11 and interpretation by a human of a word.
    0:16:13 One of the things that Danny Kahneman recognized
    0:16:16 and he published this in his last book Noise
    0:16:19 was that the same case, the same information,
    0:16:21 the same facts presented to the same judge
    0:16:23 at different times of day
    0:16:25 or to presented to different judges.
    0:16:26 They are not objective.
    0:16:29 And he actually thought that for justice and fairness
    0:16:31 that you would want the human intelligence
    0:16:34 applied to these situations with their biases
    0:16:36 to be either complimented or replaced by AIs
    0:16:38 that had a consistency and a fidelity
    0:16:40 in how they made decisions.
    0:16:42 So those are all high paying jobs
    0:16:44 with lots of training, lots of time
    0:16:47 to gain the experience, the reasoning, the intelligence.
    0:16:50 And many of those things are at risk.
    0:16:54 Government itself, the ability to legislate, make decisions.
    0:16:55 You wanna be able to capture
    0:16:56 and express the will of the people.
    0:16:59 But increasingly we have social media
    0:17:00 that’s able to do that, it could be corrupted
    0:17:02 but there’s mechanisms to figure out
    0:17:05 how do you really surface what does the populace care about?
    0:17:07 And some in Europe have tried to do these things.
    0:17:11 The key thing is always like what’s the incentive
    0:17:13 and what’s the vector where somebody can come in
    0:17:15 and corrupt these things?
    0:17:18 But interestingly, I actually think that the people
    0:17:21 whose jobs are like most protected in this new domain
    0:17:23 are blue collar workers.
    0:17:26 A robot today can’t really fully serve a meal
    0:17:28 and they cannot effectively even though
    0:17:32 every humanoid robot tries to do folding laundry
    0:17:36 and there’s still basic jobs that are not low paying
    0:17:38 but they’re arguably safer than ever.
    0:17:40 And this ties into immigration and technology
    0:17:44 and human replacement, but people that are doing maintenance,
    0:17:46 people that are plumbers, many of these things
    0:17:49 are standardized systems, but it’s like the old joke
    0:17:52 about the plumber that comes in and he comes in
    0:17:55 and he taps a few things and suddenly the pipes are fixed
    0:17:57 and he says how much is it, it’s 1,000 bucks.
    0:18:00 1,000 bucks for that, he’s like it was a $5 party.
    0:18:03 He’s like yeah, the par was $5 but 995 was knowing
    0:18:05 where to tap and where to put it.
    0:18:07 And so I think that there’s still a lot
    0:18:10 of this like tacit knowledge and craft and maintenance
    0:18:13 that is gonna be protected against the rise of the machines
    0:18:15 that are gonna replace most of the white collar
    0:18:16 intelligence and knowledge workers.
    0:18:19 – Do you believe, I think it was Zaku who came out
    0:18:22 and said by mid this year, 2025,
    0:18:26 that AI would be as good as a mid-level engineer.
    0:18:27 – Encoding.
    0:18:28 – Encoding.
    0:18:29 – Yeah, for sure.
    0:18:30 – What are the implications of that?
    0:18:34 Walk me through like the next 18 months if that’s true.
    0:18:36 – Well, again, if you take this in the frame
    0:18:38 of Jevons Paradox, then a lot more people are going
    0:18:41 to be able to code in ways that they never have.
    0:18:44 And in fact, I think it was like Andre Caparthi
    0:18:46 who was on Twitter a day or two ago
    0:18:49 talking about who he himself as a coder
    0:18:51 was basically just talking in natural language
    0:18:52 and having the AI, and I forget which one
    0:18:55 he was particularly using, generate code.
    0:18:58 And then if it tweaks something and he wanted to change
    0:19:01 a design and make a particular sidebar
    0:19:02 a little bit thicker or thinner,
    0:19:04 he would just say make the sidebar and it was able
    0:19:05 to do that.
    0:19:08 So I think the accessibility for people who never coded,
    0:19:11 never programmed to be able to come up with an idea
    0:19:12 and say, “Oh, I wish there was an application
    0:19:14 “that could do X, Y and Z to be able to quickly do that.”
    0:19:15 Is great.
    0:19:17 For the big companies who employ many coders
    0:19:20 that are competing at an ever faster speed.
    0:19:21 You know, you have somebody like Mark Benioff
    0:19:23 who’s saying that they’re not hiring any more coders
    0:19:25 at the same time that he’s still talking about
    0:19:27 the primacy of SAS, which is this weird contradiction.
    0:19:30 But I would suspect that maybe you lose 10 to 30%
    0:19:33 of the people that you normally would have hired,
    0:19:35 but the people that are there are still like
    0:19:38 these 10 X coders and now they have a machine
    0:19:40 that’s helping them be like 20 to 100 X.
    0:19:42 Do you think margins go up then
    0:19:43 for a lot of these companies?
    0:19:44 I don’t know.
    0:19:46 I always feel like margins are always fleeting in the sense
    0:19:48 because it’s like a fallow safe composition.
    0:19:50 One company stands up a little bit higher
    0:19:52 and then everybody else is on their tippy toes.
    0:19:54 So I think it just changes the game,
    0:19:57 but I don’t think that you have some like permanent margin.
    0:19:59 The only time you get really large margins
    0:20:02 is when you truly have like a monotonic NVIDIA today.
    0:20:03 Until there’s an alternative,
    0:20:06 whether in architecture or algorithms or in something else,
    0:20:07 you know, they’ve got dominant margins
    0:20:10 because they can charge super high prices
    0:20:12 because there is no alternative.
    0:20:15 So when you have that, there is no alternative,
    0:20:19 but in many domains, given enough time,
    0:20:21 there’s an alternative and then margins just resettle
    0:20:24 and look at cars, you know, the average margin on cars.
    0:20:27 Cars today are 10,000 times better
    0:20:29 by every measure of fuel efficiency,
    0:20:33 comfort, air conditioning, satellite radio,
    0:20:35 but those margins never persisted
    0:20:37 as being like permanently high.
    0:20:38 I always come back to sort of buff it
    0:20:40 in the ’60s with the loom, right?
    0:20:42 I always relate everything to the loom
    0:20:43 ’cause everybody was coming to him
    0:20:44 when he first took control and they’re like,
    0:20:45 “Oh, we got this new technology.”
    0:20:47 And he’s like, “Yeah, but all the benefits
    0:20:49 “gonna go to the customer, it’s not gonna go to me.”
    0:20:52 I mean, look at AI right now.
    0:20:54 Billions of dollars being spent.
    0:20:56 All the foundation models, all the competition,
    0:20:57 the second that deep seat comes out,
    0:21:00 it suddenly accelerated the internal strategic decisions
    0:21:02 from open AI of when are we gonna release models?
    0:21:06 And so the flurry of all of this benefits us as consumers,
    0:21:07 always and everywhere.
    0:21:11 And so we were looking at internally
    0:21:13 installing some new AI system
    0:21:16 to surface all of our disparate documents.
    0:21:17 And there’s a bunch of these.
    0:21:22 And our Gmail, our Slack, our Google Docs,
    0:21:23 our PDFs, our legal agreements
    0:21:25 and just have a repository with permissions
    0:21:28 and all this, and it’s expensive
    0:21:29 in part because going back to that
    0:21:31 Univerance arbitrage, somebody could charge us
    0:21:33 a lot of money to do that implementation.
    0:21:35 And my default was just wait.
    0:21:36 Why don’t we wait six months?
    0:21:37 Because this is gonna be available
    0:21:40 from all of the major LLM providers today
    0:21:42 that want to get the enterprise accounts.
    0:21:44 And let’s just wait and they’ll compete and compete
    0:21:46 and it will accrue to us as users.
    0:21:47 – Talk to me about all these models.
    0:21:50 People are spending hundreds of billions,
    0:21:52 if not trillions of dollars around the globe,
    0:21:54 competing on a model.
    0:21:56 Do you think that’s the basis of competition
    0:21:57 or how does that play out?
    0:22:00 And then you have Zaku’s trying to open source it
    0:22:03 and he spent, I don’t know what 60 to a hundred billion
    0:22:07 probably by the end of June this year, open sourcing it.
    0:22:08 So he’s basically like,
    0:22:09 I wouldn’t say he’s doing it for free,
    0:22:11 but what’s the strategy there?
    0:22:14 – First you have just straight head-to-head competition,
    0:22:15 you know, Anthropic and Claude
    0:22:18 and Chajapiti and opening AI and others.
    0:22:20 Then you have sovereign models.
    0:22:21 So there are countries that are saying
    0:22:24 we don’t want to be beholden to the US or to China.
    0:22:27 We find a company in Japan called Sakana.
    0:22:27 This is one of the lead authors
    0:22:30 from the Google Transformer and a guy, David Ha
    0:22:32 and just incredible team.
    0:22:34 And they are actually trying to do
    0:22:37 these super efficient novel architecture.
    0:22:37 So they’re not trying to treat
    0:22:39 in these multi-hundred thousand clusters.
    0:22:40 Their latest model,
    0:22:42 which was based on this evolutionary technique
    0:22:45 was like eight GPUs, which was wild.
    0:22:46 So that’s one trend.
    0:22:48 But on the strategic question for Zaku,
    0:22:50 I actually think that he’s probably playing
    0:22:52 at the smartest of everybody, which is,
    0:22:53 and he’s been open about this.
    0:22:56 We’re going to open source the models with Lama
    0:22:58 and we’re going to let people develop on them.
    0:23:01 Why? Because the real value is going to be
    0:23:04 in the repository of data.
    0:23:06 Longitudinal data, deep data.
    0:23:07 If you go back 10, 15 years,
    0:23:09 like the number one thing in tech was big data,
    0:23:10 big data, big data, okay?
    0:23:12 Well, now if you actually have big data,
    0:23:14 you want to use whatever models are out there
    0:23:16 to run on your proprietary silo of data.
    0:23:18 So the people that I think are going to be advantaged,
    0:23:19 Meta, why?
    0:23:21 They’ve got all my WhatsApp messages.
    0:23:23 Apple doesn’t, Meta does.
    0:23:25 They’ve got all my Instagram likes and preferences
    0:23:27 and every detail of how long I spend
    0:23:29 and linger on something and what I post
    0:23:30 and all of that content.
    0:23:32 My Facebook, which I don’t really use anymore
    0:23:34 other than when Instagram, you know, cross posts to it.
    0:23:36 But that is super valuable.
    0:23:39 And they care about that in part
    0:23:43 because Zaku needs to route around both Apple and Google.
    0:23:44 He does not have a device.
    0:23:47 I mean, you’ve got Oculus and MetaQuest and whatnot,
    0:23:48 but that’s not the one.
    0:23:51 This Orion with the neural band
    0:23:53 from the company control labs that we funded,
    0:23:55 which was for the non-invasive brain machine interface
    0:23:57 to be able to use free gestures,
    0:23:59 which is an absolute directional arrow of progress, right?
    0:24:02 Disintermediating the control surfaces you have,
    0:24:03 remote controls and all that kind of stuff
    0:24:05 and just being able to gesture, map a device
    0:24:08 to your human body is absolutely the trend.
    0:24:10 But he’s thinking about how do I route around these devices
    0:24:12 and how do I have a long repository
    0:24:13 of everybody’s information
    0:24:15 and use the best model that’s out there.
    0:24:16 And the great thing about open source
    0:24:18 is it’ll continue to improve over time.
    0:24:20 So I think that that’s a winning strategy.
    0:24:22 I think the people that are continuing
    0:24:23 to develop ever better models
    0:24:25 unless they have proprietary data
    0:24:27 are gonna be sort of screwed.
    0:24:28 Bloomberg should do really well.
    0:24:31 I mean, the huge amount of proprietary information,
    0:24:33 all the acquisitions that they’ve done over time,
    0:24:36 being able to normalize merger data
    0:24:37 and historic information
    0:24:40 and the longitude of price information
    0:24:42 and correlations between different asset classes,
    0:24:46 being able to run AI on top of that is like a quant’s dream.
    0:24:50 So I think that people that have hospital systems
    0:24:52 arguably some governments have used efficiently,
    0:24:55 but anybody that has a proprietary source of information,
    0:24:57 clinical trials, failed experiments
    0:24:59 inside of pharma companies,
    0:25:02 being able to do that is the real gold.
    0:25:05 And the large language models are effectively like,
    0:25:07 over time, I think going to trend towards zero
    0:25:09 in a commodity excavator of that data.
    0:25:11 So the mode is really in the data.
    0:25:12 I think so.
    0:25:14 Because everything will be sort of comparable
    0:25:15 running on top of that.
    0:25:17 The data sitting by itself is like an oil well
    0:25:20 that isn’t mined, you know, we’re not gas finding,
    0:25:21 that is in fact.
    0:25:23 So it needs to be extracted.
    0:25:25 And I think that most likely open source,
    0:25:27 but in some cases enterprise partnerships
    0:25:29 between anthropic or open AI
    0:25:32 with some of these siloed data sets
    0:25:34 will unleash a lot of value.
    0:25:35 – So aside from meta,
    0:25:38 what counterintuitive sort of public companies
    0:25:42 would you say have like really interesting data sources?
    0:25:43 – Ah, that’s a good question.
    0:25:45 I haven’t really spent a lot of time on that
    0:25:49 to figure out who’s got crazy amounts of proprietary data.
    0:25:50 Pharma would be a good one
    0:25:52 because obviously they’re, you know,
    0:25:54 tracking both their successful
    0:25:56 but their unsuccessful clinical trials.
    0:25:59 There’s a lot of information in the unsuccessful data,
    0:26:01 like the things that fail that you can learn from.
    0:26:02 You could argue that Tesla, of course,
    0:26:04 who I’m very publicly critical of,
    0:26:05 like if they truly are collecting
    0:26:09 a ton of road user data from,
    0:26:11 you know, every Tesla that’s being driven,
    0:26:12 that would be valuable.
    0:26:14 Anything where there’s a collection,
    0:26:17 a set of sensors, a repository of information
    0:26:19 that is owned by them.
    0:26:21 Anything that we’ve signed off on that, you know,
    0:26:25 your data is free for us to use, like meta.
    0:26:26 – You think of Tesla,
    0:26:28 they should have the best mapping software in the world.
    0:26:32 They literally like drive millions of miles every day.
    0:26:33 They can update everything.
    0:26:34 They can locate police.
    0:26:36 They can locate speed cameras.
    0:26:37 They can get real time traffic.
    0:26:38 – Weather patterns, yeah, totally.
    0:26:39 – Yeah.
    0:26:41 – But okay, the flip side of that though, right?
    0:26:45 Taking sort of like the opposite view for a moment, Netflix.
    0:26:46 Netflix has all of our viewing data.
    0:26:47 They know what we like.
    0:26:48 They know what you like.
    0:26:50 They can make a perfect set of channels for you.
    0:26:53 And the recommendations are reasonably good approximations
    0:26:55 of adjacencies to things that you liked,
    0:26:57 but they haven’t been successful,
    0:27:01 nor has the human algorithm at say HBO in the past,
    0:27:04 of like perfectly creating the next show
    0:27:06 that you really want to see.
    0:27:09 And what’s interesting about that is,
    0:27:11 they’ve put a lot of money into this,
    0:27:14 but it hasn’t yielded the recipe maker
    0:27:16 for like the next perfect show.
    0:27:18 And oftentimes the thing that you want to see
    0:27:20 is almost something that’s orthogonal
    0:27:22 from what you’ve been watching.
    0:27:27 Like I heard Anthony Mackie, who’s in the latest Marvel movie
    0:27:29 talking about an expectation that he’ll be,
    0:27:30 somebody was like, how long do you think
    0:27:32 you’ll be doing Marvel movies?
    0:27:34 And he’s like, oh, I think probably like the next 10 years.
    0:27:37 And I’m like, probably two or three,
    0:27:38 because people are just bored of this stuff after a while.
    0:27:41 Like nobody wants to see another,
    0:27:42 I don’t want to see another Marvel movie.
    0:27:45 I like the adjacency of like The Boys,
    0:27:47 which was like the dark superhero kind of movie.
    0:27:50 And I think trying to find groups
    0:27:52 that have proprietary data
    0:27:56 that have some predictive value,
    0:27:58 the most value probably for society,
    0:28:00 I don’t know if it’ll be entirely captured by companies,
    0:28:03 is just all the scientific information that we have.
    0:28:04 Because I’m absolutely convinced
    0:28:09 that we are going to have machines doing science 24/7.
    0:28:10 – Well, so talk to me a little bit about,
    0:28:12 I want to come back to Tesla in a sec,
    0:28:13 but let’s go down the science that,
    0:28:16 why has nobody sort of taken every study published
    0:28:19 in a domain say Alzheimer’s research,
    0:28:22 popped it into GPT and be like, where are we wrong?
    0:28:25 What studies have been fabricated or proven not true
    0:28:27 that we’re investing research in, right?
    0:28:29 Like, ’cause studies get built on studies and studies.
    0:28:32 And so if something from the 80s came out
    0:28:33 and it’s like completely false,
    0:28:37 we’ve probably spent $20 billion down this rabbit hole.
    0:28:39 And what’s the next most likely thing to work?
    0:28:41 Is anybody doing that?
    0:28:43 – I have to imagine they are because deep research
    0:28:46 came out today or in the past 24 hours from OpenAI,
    0:28:48 which is sort of their model with a better engine,
    0:28:50 so to speak, than Google’s deep research,
    0:28:51 which itself was impressive,
    0:28:53 both because of its ability to search many sources
    0:28:55 and then the ability to sort of,
    0:28:57 I think it was either there or through Nopakellum
    0:28:58 to conjure the podcast,
    0:29:01 which at first was a static presentation
    0:29:03 of near human quality voice,
    0:29:04 but now you can interrupt it like a radio call,
    0:29:05 which is super cool.
    0:29:10 But you can say go through the past 15 years of PNAS papers,
    0:29:14 or science and nature papers around this particular topic
    0:29:16 and find correlations between papers
    0:29:18 that do not cite each other
    0:29:20 or tell me any spurious correlations.
    0:29:21 And the beauty of all of that
    0:29:24 on sort of the information or informatics side
    0:29:27 is eventually you will have a materials
    0:29:29 and methods output of that,
    0:29:32 that you can feed into something like bench-ling
    0:29:35 or some of the automated lab players
    0:29:37 to actually say like run the experiment.
    0:29:40 So I’m absolutely convinced, like high-certitude,
    0:29:42 I don’t know exactly which company will do it.
    0:29:44 We’ve invested in some, they haven’t worked,
    0:29:46 we’ll invest in more, hopefully they will.
    0:29:49 But this directional hour of progress of the idea
    0:29:54 by analogy of machines doing science 24/7 automated
    0:29:55 is going to happen.
    0:29:56 I’ll give you one or two analogies.
    0:30:00 If you were a musician back in the day,
    0:30:01 you know, if you and I were starting a band,
    0:30:04 we would have to go and get studio time here in New York City
    0:30:05 or Electric Ladyland or whatever,
    0:30:07 you bring your instruments, okay,
    0:30:09 maybe you could rent the instruments there
    0:30:12 and then GarageBand and Logic and Pro Tools pops up.
    0:30:15 And now we don’t have to be in the same physical space.
    0:30:17 My instrument is virtualized.
    0:30:20 I can create a temporal sequence of notes.
    0:30:22 I can layer them in, you could play drums,
    0:30:23 you could do vocals, blah, blah, blah, okay.
    0:30:25 Science is the same thing.
    0:30:26 I can be on the beach in the Bahamas
    0:30:28 and conjure a hypothesis
    0:30:31 and use one of the AIs to test the hypothesis
    0:30:34 and look at past literature searches,
    0:30:36 see freedom to operate, see if there’s white space
    0:30:39 and then tell one of these cloud labs
    0:30:41 that is literally like sending something to AWS
    0:30:44 back in the day and say, run this experiment.
    0:30:46 And the beauty of this is the robot will do the,
    0:30:48 well, here’s the beauty, the virtue of the vice.
    0:30:49 The robot will do the experiment
    0:30:51 and it should do it perfectly because it’s digital
    0:30:54 and it’s high fidelity.
    0:30:56 The vice is so much scientific breakthrough
    0:30:59 has often happened because of serendipitous screw ups.
    0:31:02 And so you want almost to engineer
    0:31:04 like a temperature on an AI model,
    0:31:06 a little bit of stochastic randomness
    0:31:08 so that the machine can sort of screw it up
    0:31:09 to see what might happen because, you know,
    0:31:13 penicillin and Viagra and rubber and Vulcan,
    0:31:15 all these things happen by like random processes
    0:31:17 and then post-fact, we’re like, huh, that’s funny.
    0:31:19 And then, you know, you run with it.
    0:31:22 But then the machine will say, here’s the results.
    0:31:23 And it will then reverse prompt you
    0:31:25 and say, do you want to run the experiment again
    0:31:27 but changing the titration of this
    0:31:28 to 10 milliliters instead of five?
    0:31:30 And you just click a button from the beach
    0:31:31 and you’re like, yes, and the robots run it.
    0:31:35 Whoever ends up creating and building that,
    0:31:36 I think is going to make a fortune.
    0:31:37 – Well, you don’t even have to decide.
    0:31:39 The robots could decide, yes, right?
    0:31:40 – Totally.
    0:31:41 – And you’re sort of out of the loop
    0:31:42 and it just outputs science.
    0:31:43 – Totally.
    0:31:45 – That would be so interesting.
    0:31:46 Before we get to that point,
    0:31:47 we’ll probably get to the point
    0:31:49 where models make themselves better.
    0:31:51 Is that the point where it really starts
    0:31:54 to go like parabolic almost?
    0:31:55 – I don’t know.
    0:31:58 I definitely see that models can improve
    0:32:01 ’cause you can even argue like deep seeks R1
    0:32:03 is a model that was improving upon outputs
    0:32:06 from chat GPT and so on.
    0:32:08 So I definitely think that there will be
    0:32:10 this recursive improvement,
    0:32:14 but you’re still going back to being rate limited by time
    0:32:17 and biological or chemical reactions.
    0:32:20 You still need to instantiate this
    0:32:21 into a physical experiment.
    0:32:23 And so you can model and simulate all you want,
    0:32:26 but then you actually have to like do the thing
    0:32:27 and make the compound.
    0:32:31 And so those still take steps and organic chemistry
    0:32:33 and there’s like 20 reaction steps
    0:32:36 and people optimize to like reduce them down to six.
    0:32:38 And you still need the physical reagents
    0:32:41 and the right temperature and the experimental design.
    0:32:43 So I still think that that’s gonna be the bottleneck,
    0:32:46 but for sure like the ideation and experimental design
    0:32:49 is gonna, that’s just gonna absolutely explode.
    0:32:52 And then you’ll have these automated labs
    0:32:53 with lots of different instruments
    0:32:55 where robots will be able to take out
    0:32:57 a sample from a centrifuge and put it into the next thing.
    0:33:00 And like you don’t need humans to do that
    0:33:02 any more than you need humans to assemble
    0:33:04 sophisticated iPhones.
    0:33:05 I mean, we still have very cheap labor
    0:33:06 and Foxconn factories in China
    0:33:08 and Vietnam and elsewhere now doing that,
    0:33:11 but there’s no reason for that over time.
    0:33:12 Isn’t that low hanging fruit though?
    0:33:15 Just like look at all the work that we’ve done so far
    0:33:17 and tell us where we’re on the right track
    0:33:19 and where we’re sort of like we’re going astray.
    0:33:21 And like there’s nothing preventing that
    0:33:22 from happening today.
    0:33:24 I mean, it’s very like David Doi chains.
    0:33:25 Like if it obeys the laws of physics,
    0:33:27 that should be possible, there’s nothing about this
    0:33:29 that is like totally speculative and fantastical
    0:33:31 that it doesn’t obey the laws of physics.
    0:33:33 – The other project that I wanted to,
    0:33:35 I was thinking about sort of doing
    0:33:38 is just calling like a prior art.org or something
    0:33:41 and having AI read through all the patents
    0:33:44 and make the next adjacent sort of like patent like
    0:33:46 improvement and then just publish it
    0:33:47 ’cause then there’s prior art.
    0:33:48 – Right.
    0:33:50 Well, yeah, there will for sure be AI patent trolls
    0:33:52 if you put it negatively.
    0:33:53 – This would dissuade that.
    0:33:55 I mean, in a sense, it would sort of be making
    0:33:59 prior art for as much as you can 24/7.
    0:34:01 – There are companies that do this
    0:34:02 where they have creative patent filers
    0:34:04 for continuations in part so that they can keep
    0:34:06 sort of the life of this going.
    0:34:10 But the rise of agentic AI,
    0:34:13 you can have some crazy idea, some brain fart it,
    0:34:15 you know, 9/30, 10 o’clock a night.
    0:34:17 And you just had, you know, cocktail with friends.
    0:34:20 You’re like, oh, like imagine, you know, if that exists.
    0:34:22 Well, do the research, does this exist?
    0:34:25 And if it doesn’t exist, can you, you know, write a patent
    0:34:27 and sketch a diagram for me and file it
    0:34:29 and starting incorporate a company.
    0:34:31 Now, all those things have to go at the speed
    0:34:33 of like certain processes,
    0:34:35 but all of that could be done overnight
    0:34:36 where you literally wake up
    0:34:39 and there are multiple agents working on your behalf
    0:34:42 that have filed a patent, created a design,
    0:34:45 incorporated a company, possibly even put it out
    0:34:48 to some group and raised money for it overnight
    0:34:49 that have opted into it.
    0:34:52 And I don’t know if there was like successful enough
    0:34:53 and it hit a bunch of criteria.
    0:34:57 I might allocate some capital into an account
    0:35:01 to allow a robot AI to actually receive pitches,
    0:35:03 respond to it and create a small portfolio
    0:35:04 to allocate as an experiment.
    0:35:07 So you can see this whole thing is just like a human idea
    0:35:10 or maybe one inspired by interactions with an AI
    0:35:13 that by the time you wake up, you have a company started
    0:35:17 and the basis for people to actually do work.
    0:35:20 Like that in 10 or 20 years, people look back
    0:35:23 and be like, how did we not see that coming?
    0:35:24 And look at all the jobs that are being created
    0:35:27 because every single person is now creating
    0:35:29 and has like six virtual companies.
    0:35:31 – The future is gonna be wild.
    0:35:32 – Yeah.
    0:35:34 – Talk to me, let’s go back to Tesla for a second.
    0:35:36 Why the hate on Tesla?
    0:35:40 – Let me say, I think Elon is amazing at certain things.
    0:35:45 Elon is arguably the greatest storyteller fundraiser
    0:35:50 inspiration for anybody in the past, maybe in all time.
    0:35:53 Truly, I think his relationship with the truth
    0:35:55 has been questionable.
    0:35:58 And so in Tesla particularly, I think there was a time
    0:36:01 where the short sellers started to identify things
    0:36:03 not because they just hated the company
    0:36:04 or hated the future or any of this.
    0:36:06 And he was able to very shrewdly weaponize
    0:36:08 the us versus them.
    0:36:10 They’re trying to kill us, right?
    0:36:11 Most short sellers that I know
    0:36:13 happen to be very disaffected people
    0:36:15 and they have a chip on their shoulder.
    0:36:19 And to me, the motivating force
    0:36:21 and the incentive for them is not that
    0:36:25 they just want to make money, but they want to be right.
    0:36:27 And they want to be right because they’ve identified
    0:36:30 somebody that they think is intentionally doing wrong.
    0:36:32 It’s the same thing as an investigative journalist.
    0:36:36 It’s the same thing as a opposition research
    0:36:37 for a politician.
    0:36:38 It’s the same thing for somebody
    0:36:43 that is trying to debunk a Sunday preacher charlatan
    0:36:46 that basically is almost intellectually competitive
    0:36:49 to say you are trying to pull the wool
    0:36:52 over these people’s eyes and I know what you’re doing
    0:36:54 and I’m going to call you out on it.
    0:36:58 And so for me with Tesla, I think that they got away
    0:37:00 with accounting fraud on warranty reserves
    0:37:02 and a whole bunch of other things.
    0:37:04 I think there was a lot of presided digitization
    0:37:07 and magic of look over here while we’re doing this.
    0:37:10 And today it doesn’t matter because they got away with it.
    0:37:14 But I think that there was not the same kind of honesty
    0:37:18 that I would ascribe to Jeff Bezos in how he built Amazon
    0:37:21 and raised a few hundred million dollars of equity.
    0:37:22 You could look at stock-based compensation.
    0:37:24 You could look at debt as capitalization,
    0:37:29 but created this monster that is profitable cashflow positive
    0:37:31 and never raised another dollar of equity.
    0:37:33 And Elon raised north of $50 billion,
    0:37:38 took out $50 billion, treated it like an ATM,
    0:37:40 said I’m never selling a share and sold lots of shares.
    0:37:43 And then whether he had to do it to buy Twitter or whatever.
    0:37:46 I just, I don’t feel it was done as honestly
    0:37:48 as other entrepreneurs that I greatly admire.
    0:37:51 Now that said, SpaceX, I have no issue with.
    0:37:53 I think SpaceX is an extraordinary company.
    0:37:57 I think it’s an incredibly important American company.
    0:37:59 I think without it, we would be at a massive disadvantage.
    0:38:01 I think it is truly a national treasure,
    0:38:03 run by Gwynne Shotwell, incredible engineers.
    0:38:05 We’ve backed a bunch of these engineers
    0:38:07 that have come out from Tom Mueller
    0:38:10 to that I just, I think the world of.
    0:38:13 I’ve just, yeah, I’ve been much more critical
    0:38:15 about Elon’s relationship with the truth
    0:38:17 as it came to Tesla and in many ways,
    0:38:19 I felt like the whole thing was unnecessary.
    0:38:21 – Do you think those are one-time things
    0:38:23 or they’re systemic and they crop up
    0:38:24 every few months or something?
    0:38:25 – In his personality?
    0:38:26 – Yeah.
    0:38:27 – He’s past the stratosphere now.
    0:38:32 Like it’s, you know, he’s proximate to power in ways
    0:38:34 that people can’t compete with.
    0:38:39 If you’re an investor in or you’re Sam Altman in open AI,
    0:38:40 you’re not only worried about competition,
    0:38:42 you’re worrying about a personal grudge
    0:38:44 from somebody who has the ear of the president
    0:38:48 that can weaponize all kinds of systems of power
    0:38:51 from the DOJ to the FTC to the FBI.
    0:38:54 And I would be very nervous
    0:38:56 being an adversary with that kind of power.
    0:38:57 So.
    0:38:58 – Altman came out and said he didn’t think
    0:39:01 Elon would use that power against him.
    0:39:03 – Which is a nice and smart thing
    0:39:06 and a necessary thing to say publicly.
    0:39:07 And I think that Elon has even said like,
    0:39:09 I won’t use that, but.
    0:39:11 – What’s the saying, power corrupts?
    0:39:12 – Yeah, an absolute power corrupts, absolutely.
    0:39:15 But I don’t know, like you’re in a position
    0:39:20 of power at DOJ and OMB and Office of Personnel
    0:39:23 and are you, and you have influence
    0:39:26 and you can shut some of these things down.
    0:39:27 Does Elon love the SEC?
    0:39:31 You know, he’s been pretty vocal about that institution.
    0:39:35 Does he love the National Highway Transit Safety?
    0:39:37 So if these things are gutted, you know,
    0:39:39 I think you’ve got more free reign
    0:39:41 to shut down criticism.
    0:39:43 You know, you’ve got similarly the best entrepreneurs
    0:39:47 when short sellers are like, you know, saying something,
    0:39:48 they don’t want to ban short selling.
    0:39:50 They don’t want short sellers to be arrested.
    0:39:52 They just prove them wrong.
    0:39:53 And so.
    0:39:55 – My favorite story about that was Brad Jacobs
    0:39:59 and his, the short report came out at the stop draw.
    0:40:04 Precipitously, he borrowed $2 billion, bought back shares.
    0:40:06 – Yeah, this is big skin in the game, right?
    0:40:07 – Right, totally.
    0:40:09 – We’re gonna double down and go forward.
    0:40:12 I think he turned that two into 10 or eight or something.
    0:40:13 Like it was just crazy.
    0:40:15 – So for me, I don’t know, 13 or so,
    0:40:19 like after I was bar mitzvah, I became atheist.
    0:40:22 And I just wouldn’t, I would see like these preachers
    0:40:24 exploiting people.
    0:40:26 It just like irked me and it irked me in this.
    0:40:28 It wasn’t in some, I reflected on this over the years.
    0:40:32 It wasn’t in some virtuous holier than now kind of thing.
    0:40:33 It was intellectually competitive.
    0:40:35 It’s like, I see what you’re doing.
    0:40:38 You’re running a con and I wanna call it out.
    0:40:41 And it wasn’t rooted in like self virtue
    0:40:43 of like pursuit of truth.
    0:40:45 The real thing when I like thought about it is,
    0:40:48 no, I wanna show that you’re cheating people.
    0:40:50 – Short sellers are necessary to a well-functioning market,
    0:40:51 right? – I think so.
    0:40:52 – We need to hear both sides of the story
    0:40:54 and make our own judgments and decisions.
    0:40:56 What point do you think that computers
    0:40:58 are gonna really make most of the investing decisions?
    0:41:02 – Well, you could argue today they are,
    0:41:04 not because they’re doing reasoning and analysis
    0:41:06 and fundamental work, but because the structure
    0:41:11 of the market is so dominated by passive indexation.
    0:41:13 And that is effectively an algorithm.
    0:41:18 And that algorithm says $1 in buy, $1 out sell.
    0:41:21 And in both cases, indiscriminately.
    0:41:24 And so you just have a flood of money
    0:41:27 that goes into the market and these indices buy everything.
    0:41:29 And it becomes this massive market cap weighted,
    0:41:32 accelerant and then people say sell
    0:41:33 and then the money just comes out.
    0:41:36 So the past, I don’t know, 10 plus years
    0:41:37 where this has really become the case
    0:41:40 with Fidelity and BlackRock and State Tree
    0:41:42 and others that the ETFs, which were well-intentioned,
    0:41:44 you know, you go and listen to Buffett back in the day.
    0:41:46 It’s like, just put it in the market, right?
    0:41:49 It’s hard for active managers to out-compete.
    0:41:52 Definitely the case for the past 10 or 15 years.
    0:41:55 But I do think that we will see a return
    0:41:59 to active managers that are able to discriminate
    0:42:01 true fundamentals in part because I think
    0:42:03 that the cost of capital is just going to rise
    0:42:06 and all the funny money of the past 10 years
    0:42:07 is going to wash out.
    0:42:09 – Two questions, two rabbit holes.
    0:42:09 I want to go down here.
    0:42:11 One, at what point do you think active managers
    0:42:14 and analysts is replaced by AI in the same way
    0:42:17 that Zuck is saying an engineer at Metta
    0:42:19 is going to be replaced by AI?
    0:42:23 – Already, there are AIs that can not only go through Qs
    0:42:27 and Ks, 10 Qs and 10 Ks and can listen
    0:42:30 to quarterly earnings reports and CEOs
    0:42:33 that are talking at conferences or on podcasts
    0:42:35 and can get an emotional sentiment,
    0:42:37 can see where they’re varying their language
    0:42:40 in ways that only the subtlest of analysts in the past
    0:42:42 or portfolio manager could do.
    0:42:44 And I think the most valuable thing that AI is going to do
    0:42:47 when you ask it questions and it comes up with the answers
    0:42:49 and assuming those answers are accurate
    0:42:51 and cross-correlated and double-checked,
    0:42:55 they actually say, here’s the five questions you didn’t ask.
    0:42:58 And so that is going to unleash real insight.
    0:43:00 Now, there is still this human aspect
    0:43:03 of being able to look at somebody and decide,
    0:43:05 do I trust them or not?
    0:43:10 And I think that the best analysts are able to say,
    0:43:12 very Buffett-like or Joel Greenblatt-like,
    0:43:14 is this a good business?
    0:43:15 And there’s ways to measure that,
    0:43:17 like a fundamentally good business,
    0:43:18 even if an idiot was running it,
    0:43:21 and then do I think it’s had a good price
    0:43:23 and is therefore my expected return going to be high
    0:43:25 and do I trust the people that are running it
    0:43:27 because ultimately I am allocating capital to them
    0:43:29 in the same way that somebody allocates capital to us.
    0:43:31 I like the virtue of our private markets
    0:43:34 because I am less, we’re still beholden,
    0:43:37 but far less beholden to a day-to-day market,
    0:43:42 Mr. Market, fluctuation of manic depressive positivity
    0:43:44 or pessimism.
    0:43:46 We have 10-year locked funds.
    0:43:48 We’re able to make long-term bets.
    0:43:50 It’s arguably this great source of time arbitrage
    0:43:52 when everybody else is looking and discounting back a year
    0:43:54 or 18 months or two years.
    0:43:57 But you think about the three main sources of edge
    0:43:58 and we’ve talked about this in the past,
    0:44:01 but informational, analytical, and behavioral.
    0:44:04 Informational advantage used to exist a long time ago,
    0:44:08 regulations like Reg FD and avoidance of insider trading
    0:44:12 and information that tried to equalize the playing field
    0:44:15 in addition to a huge influx of really brilliant people
    0:44:19 that are able to use cutting edge data tools.
    0:44:21 Having an information advantage is really hard.
    0:44:23 Having an analytic advantage where AI can play a role
    0:44:26 in that, let’s assume we all have the same information
    0:44:28 and I don’t have any better intel or information.
    0:44:30 Like for example, just inside on the information advantage,
    0:44:33 there was a hedge fund, which I won’t name,
    0:44:36 which was very cleverly going and actually buying stuff
    0:44:38 online from Adobe.
    0:44:41 Every time they did, they got a piece of legal
    0:44:45 inside information, which is Adobe’s web URL,
    0:44:49 actually, when you made a purchase for Creative Cloud,
    0:44:52 would tell you 4,723 or whatever.
    0:44:54 And then like six hours later, they would go,
    0:44:56 and it was like 4,000,000, and so they could infer
    0:45:00 and extrapolate what the sales were based on this
    0:45:02 because when they bought it six days later
    0:45:04 or six hours later or whatever they saw
    0:45:07 where they were in the queue and you can sort of extrapolate.
    0:45:10 That was legal to do, but once that signal leaks out
    0:45:11 and somebody’s like, oh, that’s a clever way
    0:45:15 to figure that out, then it rapidly erodes.
    0:45:17 So informational advantage, hard analytical advantage,
    0:45:20 brilliant people combined with brilliant technology,
    0:45:22 really hard, and then it goes into this last one,
    0:45:25 which is the behavioral, and that, to me,
    0:45:27 is the persistent thing.
    0:45:30 Now, AIs over time will understand us in many ways better
    0:45:32 than we understand ourselves.
    0:45:35 Google already arguably knows more about you
    0:45:37 than the closest people in your life based on the things
    0:45:40 that you search for, search in private for,
    0:45:41 and AI will as well.
    0:45:44 And already there’s an eerie moment that I appreciate
    0:45:47 because I’ve given myself over to the information gods.
    0:45:51 There’s a required energy to try to maintain privacy,
    0:45:53 and I just feel like it’s not worth it.
    0:45:55 We can talk about privacy ’cause most people basically
    0:45:57 just wanna keep private, their sex life,
    0:46:00 their bathroom time, and how much money they have,
    0:46:03 unless you are super rich or super poor.
    0:46:05 Because if you’re super rich, you broadcast.
    0:46:08 You’re on the Forbes 100, 400.
    0:46:09 You’re showing the house you just bought,
    0:46:11 the art you just bought, you’re signaling your wealth.
    0:46:14 And if you’re broke, then you’re really poor.
    0:46:15 There’s people that are on Twitter like,
    0:46:17 I’m dead ass broke, I have no money,
    0:46:19 and they literally, it’s the people that are in the middle
    0:46:21 that are middle class, but want people to think
    0:46:23 that they’re upper class, or people that, you know.
    0:46:26 And so everything else for privacy,
    0:46:27 I think is like out the window.
    0:46:30 But the reason I was saying this is,
    0:46:32 I’ve given myself over to the information gods,
    0:46:35 and when I go to ChatGPT, because it has memory,
    0:46:36 and it’s constantly updating it,
    0:46:38 there are times where I remember this thing,
    0:46:39 and I’m like, how did you know that?
    0:46:41 And I forgot that it was like from a search three months ago
    0:46:43 where I mentioned something about my kids,
    0:46:44 and a place that I like to vacation.
    0:46:46 And part of me actually appreciates
    0:46:48 that that repository is compounding,
    0:46:51 but it does sort of scare you
    0:46:54 because I remember the things that we talked about.
    0:46:56 And then if you were like, oh, like I heard you went to that,
    0:46:57 I’d be like, well, who’d you hear that from?
    0:47:00 But now if I asked the AI, who’d you hear that from?
    0:47:01 It would be like, you, you told me that.
    0:47:04 – You told me, wait ’til it gets on your device.
    0:47:05 – Exactly.
    0:47:07 – And then, okay, well, let’s go back up this rabbit hole
    0:47:11 a little bit here, back to passive indexation.
    0:47:13 So the rise of this is really post 2010, right?
    0:47:16 The mass rise of passive indexing.
    0:47:20 We’ve never seen, well, we did during COVID,
    0:47:22 but there was so much money thrown into the system.
    0:47:25 What do you think the second, third order effects of this
    0:47:28 will be, especially in terms of volatility
    0:47:30 or something unforeseen?
    0:47:34 – Well, you saw this a little bit with just how quickly
    0:47:38 the market reacted with a single largest one day loss
    0:47:41 of five, six, 700 billion dollars within video,
    0:47:43 just because of the fear over deep seek.
    0:47:47 The fear was a cascading, traditional information cascade.
    0:47:49 Oh my gosh, what does this mean for the expectations
    0:47:53 we have about demand for compute and CAPEX
    0:47:54 and the expenditures that people are gonna have?
    0:47:57 Do we need to rethink this mental model?
    0:48:00 And so I think that there’ll be things like that,
    0:48:03 that whipsaw and shock people.
    0:48:05 – Did they become reflexive at some point?
    0:48:08 Like maybe at 500 million or 500 billion,
    0:48:12 it didn’t, but had that hit 700 or 800 or a trillion,
    0:48:16 like does it then start the auto selling and the,
    0:48:17 – That’s a good question.
    0:48:18 I don’t know.
    0:48:21 Obviously systems where there are significant leverage
    0:48:23 in the system are ones that are most prone to that,
    0:48:25 these sort of Minsky moments where, you know,
    0:48:26 things are going fine, going fine,
    0:48:28 and then suddenly they just collapse.
    0:48:30 And usually that’s where you have a lot of leverage
    0:48:31 in the system.
    0:48:32 And sometimes it’s hidden leverage.
    0:48:34 I don’t know other than some of the two extra,
    0:48:39 three X lever ETFs that that’s the case in traditional market.
    0:48:42 But where does this go from here?
    0:48:45 – I’m not sure on the passive active piece,
    0:48:50 what will break this other than if you were to have
    0:48:53 widespread news reports of a handful of active managers
    0:48:56 that are suddenly beating the market, you know, decisively,
    0:48:59 and they’re pointing to the structure of the market.
    0:49:02 And so there’s a rebalancing where people start
    0:49:04 to shift out of these things.
    0:49:05 On the volatility piece,
    0:49:08 what’s interesting is over the past five, six, seven years,
    0:49:10 maybe five especially,
    0:49:14 a lot of LPs, allocators have gone into private credit,
    0:49:16 have gone into private equity,
    0:49:20 in part because they are mechanisms of muting volatility
    0:49:22 and the vicissitudes of the market
    0:49:24 because you don’t have daily market to market.
    0:49:28 And so there’s been a little bit of this perverse incentive,
    0:49:30 but as Buffett says, you know,
    0:49:32 what the wise do in the beginning, the fool does in the end,
    0:49:33 and then these things get overdone.
    0:49:37 And so I’m actually worried about some of those asset classes
    0:49:39 where private credit in particular,
    0:49:43 I think was wise to do a few years ago and now is overdone.
    0:49:45 You have another phenomenon,
    0:49:47 which is every major sophisticated,
    0:49:51 large private equity firm, Apollo, KKR, Carlisle, et cetera,
    0:49:53 are all starting to think about,
    0:49:56 or are actively thinking about both permanent capital
    0:49:58 in the form of insurance vehicles like Apollo
    0:50:01 and accessing retail in a huge way.
    0:50:04 That many people see retail being the next wave of this.
    0:50:05 – And when you say retail,
    0:50:07 you actually just mean normal day-to-day consumers.
    0:50:10 – Individual investors that might’ve been on Robinhood
    0:50:13 and could never hear before access Apollo or Carlisle,
    0:50:16 but in aggregate, you’re talking about
    0:50:18 trillions of dollars of investor money.
    0:50:21 And so I think that they’re gonna be tapped,
    0:50:22 they’re gonna be into these vehicles.
    0:50:27 That will present new interesting financial vehicles
    0:50:29 because you’re gonna have to find ways
    0:50:31 to give people liquidity for these things.
    0:50:34 And so I’ve heard about some interesting things,
    0:50:36 actually from a friend, Mike Green,
    0:50:39 who I think is a really smart practitioner
    0:50:42 and student of markets.
    0:50:45 He was one of the earliest to this passive active piece.
    0:50:46 He was one of the earliest to understanding
    0:50:49 the mechanisms behind the scenes for the SPAC movement.
    0:50:53 He’s early now to this idea of Uniswap,
    0:50:58 which has a certain mechanism that provides liquidity
    0:51:01 by having, let’s say like 80 or 90% in treasuries
    0:51:03 and 10% in some underlying.
    0:51:07 And you’re able to swap out some illiquid thing
    0:51:09 for effectively some liquid pool up to some point,
    0:51:11 there’s some repricing.
    0:51:14 And he’s been thinking about
    0:51:17 something that like Apollo is doing with State Street
    0:51:19 and that this portends a movement
    0:51:22 into these almost artificial,
    0:51:23 like if I would have talked about ETF 20 years ago,
    0:51:25 people would be like, “What is it?
    0:51:26 Don’t we have mutual funds already?”
    0:51:28 And they’re like, “No, but they’re gonna go super low fee
    0:51:31 and you’ll be able to trade them on a daily basis.”
    0:51:34 There’s something here to watch about the flood
    0:51:38 of retail money that will go into illiquid alts,
    0:51:39 private equity in particular,
    0:51:42 and new vehicles that are formed
    0:51:45 to be able to provide liquidity because of that.
    0:51:48 And I think that that’s both gonna be really interesting
    0:51:49 and potentially to your point,
    0:51:53 creates something that sets up some massive blow up.
    0:51:55 – The other thing that I wanna come back to
    0:51:58 in the rabbit hole here is you mentioned
    0:52:01 persistent advantage is behavioral.
    0:52:02 – Yes.
    0:52:04 – Talk about that in the context of humans
    0:52:06 and how do we create an unfair advantage
    0:52:08 in a world of AI for humans?
    0:52:10 Like what are the ways that we can,
    0:52:12 like your kids, like how are you teaching them
    0:52:15 to navigate this in a way that gives them–
    0:52:16 – In advantage.
    0:52:18 – An advantage, a behavioral advantage.
    0:52:21 – So you go back some years and it was like,
    0:52:26 okay, we can still be computers in chess, done.
    0:52:27 We can still beat them and go, done.
    0:52:28 We can beat them in video games, done.
    0:52:31 Okay, but we still have creativity, done.
    0:52:34 Now, of course, human creativity is not dead,
    0:52:37 but every day I am doing something creative on AIs
    0:52:37 that I can’t do.
    0:52:40 I cannot paint, I cannot draw, I cannot conjure.
    0:52:43 I like taking photographs and I like the composition of that.
    0:52:46 But I can engineer prompts,
    0:52:48 which itself is an act of creativity
    0:52:52 and get the most inspiring muses and results.
    0:52:54 And I can take works of art that I like
    0:52:56 and put them in and ask it to describe it
    0:52:59 and do it six times, particularly in like mid-journey,
    0:53:04 and recreate from the prompt some alternative of it.
    0:53:05 There was even an artwork that I loved,
    0:53:09 which was this mixed mash of superheroes
    0:53:11 that looked like it was put through a blender.
    0:53:12 And I was gonna buy the artist’s work
    0:53:15 and then I couldn’t describe it to Lauren, my wife.
    0:53:18 And so I put it into mid-journey and described it.
    0:53:19 And then I just clicked a button
    0:53:21 and it made four versions of it.
    0:53:23 I guess 16 versions ’cause each one was four.
    0:53:25 And it was insane.
    0:53:26 And I was like, why am I gonna buy this?
    0:53:30 ‘Cause I just recreated it and I felt morally bad
    0:53:31 ’cause I wasn’t copying.
    0:53:33 But I had a perfect description of the style.
    0:53:36 And so I thought that that was pretty wild.
    0:53:40 So these are tools that I think kids should be using.
    0:53:40 They should be learning.
    0:53:42 It’s just like a language.
    0:53:45 And I think they need to be versed with it,
    0:53:49 in part to understand the domains to avoid
    0:53:54 because they’re gonna be not void of emotional
    0:53:58 or aesthetic or moral value, but you’re not gonna make money.
    0:54:01 And so my wife and I debate this all the time about dance.
    0:54:03 Dance is amazing.
    0:54:09 We started dating and she took me to this dance thing.
    0:54:12 I was really not into dance at all at Parsons Theater.
    0:54:15 It was this guy, David Parsons at the Joyce.
    0:54:18 And he has this performance called “Caught.”
    0:54:20 And me being into science and technology,
    0:54:21 I’m watching a bunch of people dance.
    0:54:22 I’m not really into it.
    0:54:27 All of a sudden, it’s a weird ambient sound,
    0:54:29 very electronic, very tron-like.
    0:54:33 And there’s a guy in white pants and that’s it.
    0:54:35 And then a strobe light goes on.
    0:54:37 Anyway, and the strobe starts flashing.
    0:54:42 And all you see as a viewer is this person floating in the air.
    0:54:45 But behind the scenes, what they’re really doing is
    0:54:47 jumping, jumping, jumping, jumping perfectly timed
    0:54:49 to the choreography of the strobe.
    0:54:51 So you see them caught,
    0:54:54 but they’re doing this crazy kinetic athletic thing.
    0:54:56 And I was just like, that’s super cool, right?
    0:54:58 Everybody should see this, right?
    0:54:59 And it’s just like inspiring.
    0:55:02 Now that said, we had this debate afterwards
    0:55:04 because she’s like, you know, these dancers make no money.
    0:55:06 And I’m like, well, market forces would say
    0:55:09 that there’s too many dancers or there’s not enough demand.
    0:55:12 And they collect unemployment insurance for half the year
    0:55:14 because they have to work other jobs
    0:55:15 and they don’t have this and it’s just wild.
    0:55:18 And so we got into a debate about,
    0:55:20 what is the societal value of this?
    0:55:22 Now, I found it valuable and I would go
    0:55:24 and I would pay money and be a patron,
    0:55:26 but I wouldn’t want my kids to go and pursue that
    0:55:28 unless it was that they were solving for
    0:55:32 just the aesthetic passion that they had.
    0:55:35 But I think that there’s very few crevices
    0:55:38 where AI will not creep in
    0:55:41 and either be able to do the thing nearly as good,
    0:55:45 including, you think about the compression
    0:55:47 that we all enjoy of a Game and Throne’s episode,
    0:55:51 the compression algorithm of all of that talent,
    0:55:55 set design, special effects, screenwriting,
    0:55:57 a lifetime of acting and performing,
    0:55:59 you know, just swish down.
    0:56:01 One of our companies Runway ML.
    0:56:04 You can, and there’s others that you can conjure.
    0:56:06 Today it’s 10 seconds, but tomorrow it’ll be two minutes
    0:56:09 and full feature films with no key grips, no lighting,
    0:56:12 no costume design, no set design, no actors.
    0:56:15 And voice is entirely generated by AI.
    0:56:20 And so does that strip this art of its soul kind of thing?
    0:56:23 I don’t think so.
    0:56:26 I think it just creates a new form of art, just like Pixar.
    0:56:27 You know, for all the people that were doing
    0:56:29 Disney Mickey animations by hand,
    0:56:31 and then suddenly we get this 3D rendered graphics
    0:56:34 and incredible storytelling, that will be timeless,
    0:56:35 but the tools that we will use
    0:56:38 will very rapidly replace these things.
    0:56:41 So I think our kids should be embracing
    0:56:43 and using all of these tools.
    0:56:45 The only tool that I restrict them from is TikTok,
    0:56:48 but otherwise, and that’s for a variety of bad influence
    0:56:50 and Chinese Communist Party.
    0:56:54 But otherwise I want them learning how to use every tool
    0:56:57 as they would every appliance in a kitchen.
    0:56:58 Outside of those tools,
    0:57:01 where do you think the advantage comes from?
    0:57:03 It is like a networking advantage
    0:57:05 in who you know become more pronounced.
    0:57:07 I think it’s this.
    0:57:08 I think it’s human to human.
    0:57:10 I think that if you always can frame things
    0:57:12 as like what’s abundant and what’s scarce,
    0:57:16 in a world where there’s gonna be an abundance of access
    0:57:18 to information and abundance of access
    0:57:22 to creative construction of things,
    0:57:26 art and literature and movies and just by the way,
    0:57:30 as an aside, I also will take boring PTA messages
    0:57:33 from our school and I will put them into large language
    0:57:35 models and send them to my wife where I’m like,
    0:57:36 do this in the style of Matt Levine,
    0:57:38 the Bloomberg deli writer,
    0:57:39 or do this in the style of Shane Parrish,
    0:57:43 or do this in the style of Al Swearingen from Deadwood.
    0:57:45 And it’s just, it’s absolutely entertaining and brilliant.
    0:57:48 It takes something that’s so boring
    0:57:52 and cliched and hackneyed and like just brings it to life,
    0:57:52 right?
    0:57:53 – I do the same thing.
    0:57:54 – So it’s a lot of fun, right?
    0:57:55 It actually makes this stuff interesting,
    0:58:00 but the advantage is gonna come in,
    0:58:01 what do I do with that when I output it?
    0:58:04 I enjoy it for a second, but then I share it.
    0:58:05 And so all of these things, all the value,
    0:58:07 all the market capitalization of all social media
    0:58:09 is about sharing.
    0:58:10 And I still think that we’re gonna produce,
    0:58:13 we’re gonna share and what becomes scarce is this,
    0:58:17 is like human connection, because we are still human
    0:58:18 and we still want that.
    0:58:20 We wanna be hugged and we want intimacy
    0:58:22 and we wanna laugh with each other.
    0:58:25 I mean, I’ll share just a quick aside from this,
    0:58:27 like two or three months before Danny Kahneman
    0:58:29 died last year.
    0:58:31 Lauren and I went over with a filmmaker
    0:58:35 and another woman and we had a dinner with Danny
    0:58:39 and his partner, Barbara Tversky, it was Amos, his wife.
    0:58:44 And we were talking about aging and getting older
    0:58:46 and memories and Danny had this great point about
    0:58:49 that the pleasure of pleasurable things
    0:58:53 got less pleasurable,
    0:58:57 but less than the pain of painful things got less painful.
    0:59:01 So for him, the loss of a friend,
    0:59:03 you became a little bit anesthetized to it.
    0:59:05 The first time you lose a friend, it’s tragic,
    0:59:07 but when all your friends are dropping dead,
    0:59:10 it’s like, ah, this is just happening.
    0:59:12 The first person you know gets divorced
    0:59:14 and all these things over time,
    0:59:17 the half-life of the pain just decreases.
    0:59:19 You’re still losing the pleasurable things.
    0:59:21 So food didn’t taste as good and wine didn’t taste as good
    0:59:24 and music didn’t sound as good and sleep wasn’t as good
    0:59:26 and sex wasn’t as good and all these pleasurable things.
    0:59:29 But he thought that the pain was less painful
    0:59:32 than the pleasure was less pleasurable.
    0:59:33 And so I thought that was interesting inside.
    0:59:35 Barbara had a different view
    0:59:36 and she’s still alive
    0:59:37 and I’m taking some license to share her view.
    0:59:42 But she said, no, it’s still painful.
    0:59:45 And the main reason she said that pain is painful
    0:59:48 is that these memories I have of Amos
    0:59:52 or I shared that moment with this person.
    0:59:55 And the great human feeling is commiserating
    0:59:57 about the thing that we experienced together
    1:00:00 or the memory and laughing hysterically
    1:00:02 which I still do with my childhood friends
    1:00:04 of this shared moment.
    1:00:06 And AI will never get that.
    1:00:08 Another person won’t get the inside joke.
    1:00:11 And so to your question about the advantage,
    1:00:13 the advantage is in that human connection
    1:00:16 because we are still human and we want that, we pine for it.
    1:00:18 And so I thought that was a really profound counter
    1:00:22 to Danny’s view, which is that when you lose these people
    1:00:27 you lose the partner to amplify that emotion,
    1:00:28 a good one or a bad one.
    1:00:31 And I think that being able to have like uniquely human
    1:00:34 experiences, understand each other, support each other,
    1:00:36 that that is still gonna be an advantage.
    1:00:38 – A lot of the things you said,
    1:00:41 what sort of common thread with them in my mind
    1:00:45 is we feel part of something larger than just ourselves.
    1:00:46 – Yes.
    1:00:48 – Like relate this to working remotely
    1:00:52 or and how this interacts with other things, right?
    1:00:55 Where we might not feel part of something larger
    1:00:57 than ourselves and remote work is a great example
    1:01:00 where you sort of, the ability is there
    1:01:02 whether you do part-time or full-time
    1:01:05 to shut off your laptop and the world looks like you.
    1:01:05 – Right.
    1:01:06 – You’re not forced to interact with people
    1:01:08 with different political views,
    1:01:10 different socioeconomic status.
    1:01:13 You surround yourself so you don’t feel a part
    1:01:15 of something bigger than, and that changes how you vote.
    1:01:18 It changes a whole bunch of things in your life,
    1:01:18 I would imagine.
    1:01:21 I’m speculating here, but I’m sort of like thinking out loud.
    1:01:22 – No way.
    1:01:25 I think a lot of your values, a lot of our values.
    1:01:28 And again, I’m gonna invoke Danny here in a conversation
    1:01:32 before he passed away, was that you may think
    1:01:36 you think the things you think because you analyzed
    1:01:37 and you reasoned or whatever, but no.
    1:01:38 The reason you think the thing you think
    1:01:41 is because of the five or six most important people
    1:01:44 around you and they sort of believe something
    1:01:45 and you believe them.
    1:01:47 And so again, an information contagion
    1:01:48 and you will tell yourself that you believe it
    1:01:50 because you really thought deeply about it
    1:01:52 and you reasoned through this.
    1:01:53 But no, the reality is you believe things
    1:01:55 just because there’s the social phenomenon.
    1:02:00 So working from home versus working in person,
    1:02:02 there are so many, everybody is here Monday
    1:02:04 through Friday now.
    1:02:05 You know, at first it was Monday through Thursday,
    1:02:07 take Friday, now I’m like, look, if you need to leave,
    1:02:10 you go to family first, it’s a principle here,
    1:02:13 never miss a concert or recital, a science fair,
    1:02:15 but we need to be together.
    1:02:16 Why?
    1:02:17 Because there’s so many interstitial moments.
    1:02:20 There’s a chance serendipity moment
    1:02:21 because I come out of a meeting
    1:02:24 and I’m able to introduce you to Grace
    1:02:26 or Brandon is meeting with somebody and every day,
    1:02:27 hey, do you have a minute?
    1:02:28 You know, knock, knock,
    1:02:29 and then somebody’s making an introduction
    1:02:30 and you just never know what it unlocks.
    1:02:33 That never happens on Zoom or on calls, it just doesn’t.
    1:02:35 The structure of that doesn’t allow for that serendipity
    1:02:37 and those sort of human connections.
    1:02:41 The ability to really feel when somebody swallows
    1:02:43 when you ask them a question and they’re feeling nervous
    1:02:46 or like, hey, like something going on, you know,
    1:02:47 and they’re, because everybody’s fighting
    1:02:50 some epic battle, you know, they’ve got relationship issues,
    1:02:53 they got parents issues, they got a sick person, like,
    1:02:55 and we are just, we’re still human.
    1:03:00 So I feel deeply that we should all be connected in person.
    1:03:01 And I do think that that’s an advantage
    1:03:05 in a world of abundant AI and sort of cold sterile,
    1:03:08 even if it has the simulacrum of,
    1:03:10 and again, a lot of people will use AI
    1:03:13 as a beneficial way to share things
    1:03:14 that they might not even be comfortable sharing
    1:03:18 with a person and have a consultant therapist to tell them.
    1:03:20 But I’ll give another example,
    1:03:24 which is another colleague here moved from one city
    1:03:27 to another and he happens to be religious observant,
    1:03:29 but as an atheist, okay?
    1:03:32 But he moved to this new city and he found a tribe
    1:03:35 that he’s like, I immediately plugged in.
    1:03:37 Like we didn’t know anybody, we didn’t have any friends,
    1:03:40 but by being part of this religion,
    1:03:42 we instantly had friends and peers.
    1:03:45 And I was like, not that it’s cynical or selfish
    1:03:49 or, you know, we could put a valence of meaning behind it,
    1:03:51 but really at the end of it is like,
    1:03:52 will you help me?
    1:03:53 Is there reciprocity?
    1:03:56 And that’s this like ancient sense
    1:04:00 of whether it’s transactional or not, it’s over or not,
    1:04:02 you’re signaling the depth of the sacrifices
    1:04:03 that you would make for the group.
    1:04:06 This idea that something is bigger than yourself,
    1:04:10 belonging is arguably like the most pleasurable thing,
    1:04:11 having friendships, you know, you do all these,
    1:04:13 look at all these studies of people that age
    1:04:15 and what was meaningful to them in leading a good life
    1:04:18 and being ostracized or feeling rejected
    1:04:20 or left as like the most painful thing.
    1:04:23 So I think that that’s a timeless human truth.
    1:04:26 And I certainly feel like,
    1:04:28 and I encourage this with my kids, by the way,
    1:04:31 I don’t want them just to have a group of friends in school,
    1:04:34 because just like the diversity that you need in a portfolio,
    1:04:35 you need to have hedges and all these other things
    1:04:37 because maybe something is not going right
    1:04:37 in that friend group.
    1:04:41 And then you are more at risk of catastrophizing
    1:04:43 that, oh my God, like nobody likes me.
    1:04:47 And you know, and so if you’re in a soccer team
    1:04:51 and you go to a religious group or you’re in Hebrew school
    1:04:52 or you’re on a dance team
    1:04:54 and you have a neighborhood group of friends
    1:04:56 and my kids are in like six different things
    1:04:58 outside of school each
    1:05:00 and they then can bring these people together,
    1:05:01 which itself adds this feeling of like,
    1:05:04 oh, I connected people and I’m this node
    1:05:08 and it sort of cements the network in a way
    1:05:12 that is profound and meaningful and comforting.
    1:05:13 I like that.
    1:05:15 I want to come to aging a little bit here.
    1:05:17 I don’t want to do it.
    1:05:18 I don’t want to age.
    1:05:19 – Talk to me about this
    1:05:23 because I feel like based on the research happening now,
    1:05:25 the amount of money going into this,
    1:05:27 the progress that we seem to be making
    1:05:31 at least on biomarkers that we understand,
    1:05:33 we seem to be able to dramatically slow
    1:05:36 at best our aging process.
    1:05:37 You think we’re going to make a quantum leap
    1:05:40 and in term of average lifespan for humans,
    1:05:44 maybe adding 10 or 15 or 20 good years in the next 10 years?
    1:05:48 – I think that’s possible, 10 or 15 or 20, not doubling.
    1:05:51 I mean, we did that, you know, in a few generations,
    1:05:53 you know, people would die at 40 years old or 50 years old
    1:05:56 and people now regularly until their 70s or 80s.
    1:05:57 You know, this is an interesting thing
    1:06:01 because we don’t fund longevity work here
    1:06:05 and I’m personally not invested in any of these things.
    1:06:10 I will go to my doctor and I will get my blood tests
    1:06:13 and he will suggest that I take some supplements
    1:06:14 because I’m low in iron or this or that
    1:06:16 and that’s entirely reasonable
    1:06:19 just to maintain sort of homeostatic function.
    1:06:22 But I don’t go absolutely crazy and intense,
    1:06:24 but I appreciate the people, Brian Johnson and others
    1:06:27 that are self-hacking and doing this in pursuit
    1:06:29 and Ray Kurzweil was doing it back in the day.
    1:06:32 Nobody has really seen Ray out that much, you know?
    1:06:34 He was taking like, I don’t know, 100 supplements a day
    1:06:35 or something like that.
    1:06:38 And last I saw, I think he had a two-pay
    1:06:40 and like, it was like a messy situation,
    1:06:43 but I’m glad that these people are doing it
    1:06:46 both in pursuit of staving off their own mortality
    1:06:49 and a public service either interpreted as
    1:06:50 I can’t believe you go to these extremes
    1:06:52 and I’m not gonna do that ’cause it’s super stressful
    1:06:54 or maybe you’re going to unearth something
    1:06:57 and we’re all gonna be on metformin and all these,
    1:07:00 but there are this timeless pursuit of avoiding death.
    1:07:03 It’s very human.
    1:07:07 It is and it goes back like the first form
    1:07:09 of avoiding death was I’m not gonna die.
    1:07:12 So the search for the fountain of youth and Ponce de Leon,
    1:07:15 today modern pharmaceuticals and drugs and supplements
    1:07:16 and lifestyle changes.
    1:07:20 The second form was fine, I’m gonna die,
    1:07:22 but I’m gonna come back.
    1:07:25 And so reincarnation and maybe that was
    1:07:26 the spiritual or religious sense.
    1:07:29 And then today’s version of that would be Alcor
    1:07:32 or any of these cryo, I’m gonna freeze my brain
    1:07:35 so that when they figure this out, they’ll bring me back.
    1:07:37 The third was, okay, fine, I’m gonna die,
    1:07:39 but I am more than my physical self.
    1:07:41 There’s an ethereal soul.
    1:07:42 The modern technological version
    1:07:44 would be the ghost in the machine,
    1:07:46 endless sci-fi movies about people uploading themselves
    1:07:49 and their likeness, which by the way,
    1:07:51 are sort of a really interesting phenomenon
    1:07:54 and how we deal with loss and the ability,
    1:07:57 if there is an AI that is totally trained on my voice
    1:07:59 and my likeness and everything I’ve ever said,
    1:08:03 which I have done, that my kids would actually have a dad AI
    1:08:05 and maybe they can consult it for questions
    1:08:07 or is that a good thing or a bad thing?
    1:08:10 I don’t know, but it is going to be a thing.
    1:08:12 Then you have, okay, I’m gonna die,
    1:08:13 but I’m gonna live on through my progeny,
    1:08:15 through my children, through my genes,
    1:08:17 which is the evolutionary impetus.
    1:08:20 And I’m gonna live on through my works
    1:08:23 and you won’t be there to experience either of those things
    1:08:25 unlike the first three where you’re not gonna die
    1:08:26 or you’re gonna come back.
    1:08:28 And so I think about the people that,
    1:08:30 whether it’s where I grew up in Coney Island, Brooklyn,
    1:08:31 they put graffiti on the wall
    1:08:33 and they put themselves up until it gets washed away
    1:08:36 or if you’re Dave Rubenstein or Steve Schwartzman,
    1:08:37 you put your graffiti etched in stone
    1:08:39 on the New York public library
    1:08:40 or but it’s really no different,
    1:08:42 just $100 million instead of free
    1:08:44 and the potential for being jailed.
    1:08:47 And then it’s through your children.
    1:08:49 And I think there it’s very Buffett-like,
    1:08:54 the moral sort of mandate would be like he described
    1:08:57 Don Keough of Coke that when you do die,
    1:08:59 you want them to say what they said about him,
    1:09:01 which was everybody loved him.
    1:09:03 I don’t have that, like not everybody loves me,
    1:09:05 but my kids is most important.
    1:09:07 – I think the theory was the people
    1:09:09 that you want to love you, love you.
    1:09:10 – Which is interesting because the people
    1:09:13 that we celebrate the most, if you think about Steve Jobs
    1:09:16 and even Elon, like are the people that are closest to him.
    1:09:19 I don’t mean millions of fans that don’t actually know him,
    1:09:20 but I used to have this debate
    1:09:22 with one of my best friends about Steve Jobs,
    1:09:26 like the world loves Steve Jobs, but like–
    1:09:29 – People in his orbit didn’t always love Steve Jobs.
    1:09:32 – He’s like terrible, you know, like he’s so mean or like,
    1:09:33 so I think that’s really interesting.
    1:09:36 But going back, the common thing amongst all the people
    1:09:39 that have tried to defeat death,
    1:09:40 from the people that weren’t gonna die
    1:09:42 through found of youth or modern biotech,
    1:09:43 the people that were gonna upload themselves,
    1:09:45 the people that were gonna come back,
    1:09:48 the people that leave it to their kids or to their works,
    1:09:51 the common thing amongst all them is that they’re dead.
    1:09:53 You know, nobody has beaten death.
    1:09:57 And so the mental model that I like on this is,
    1:09:58 okay, take a piece of paper
    1:10:00 and put the day you were born on the front
    1:10:01 and then the day you’re gonna die,
    1:10:03 roughly plus 80 years on the back.
    1:10:06 And the only thing that you may have control over in part
    1:10:09 is the story that you write between these two pages.
    1:10:11 And my brother-in-law passed when he was early 40s,
    1:10:14 stomach cancer, you know, he lived a tragic short-term,
    1:10:16 you know, relative to others.
    1:10:18 And, but maybe you get to live this epic tone
    1:10:19 and it’s like, how do you write it?
    1:10:20 And who do you spend your time with?
    1:10:22 And nobody’s gonna look back and say, you know,
    1:10:24 I wish I would have taken that extra meeting
    1:10:26 or done that extra business trip or something.
    1:10:28 It’s like, I’m really glad that I was there
    1:10:30 for my kids or my spouse.
    1:10:32 And yet you work really hard.
    1:10:35 Yeah, and I always prioritize my kids.
    1:10:38 Like, I think about all the time, like their judgment,
    1:10:40 you know, some people are like, meet their maker
    1:10:41 or they, you know, because I don’t believe,
    1:10:43 I care deeply.
    1:10:46 Well, they say my dad was there for everything.
    1:10:47 And in part for me,
    1:10:49 because my father was not present in my life,
    1:10:51 my parents split when I was super young.
    1:10:53 It’s my little guy who’s, I have two daughters and a son,
    1:10:55 but my son, who’s nine,
    1:10:58 always wants me to have a play date with my dad, you know?
    1:11:01 And we’re, we’re civil and we speak a few times a year.
    1:11:03 But I’m like, it’s just not that relationship.
    1:11:04 I’m not gonna have that, you know?
    1:11:06 And he’s like, yeah, but I really want you guys to,
    1:11:09 and I’m like, no, I get to be the dad that I am to you
    1:11:11 because I didn’t really have that.
    1:11:12 And I’m making up for it now.
    1:11:14 And this is what it is.
    1:11:18 And then I worry that if they see such a present father,
    1:11:19 do they take that for granted?
    1:11:20 Oh, dude.
    1:11:21 And then do they screw it up in the next generation?
    1:11:22 You know, and so.
    1:11:23 I have the same thoughts.
    1:11:25 I actually talked to a therapist who had this
    1:11:27 because I was like, am I too present in their lives?
    1:11:29 Like they need some space, you know?
    1:11:30 I’m home and they get home from after school.
    1:11:34 And my wife and I talk about this like my parents split.
    1:11:37 My father was married four times.
    1:11:40 All I wanted was a stable nuclear family.
    1:11:42 But if my kids grow up in a stable nuclear family,
    1:11:42 do they take it for granted?
    1:11:44 And does like one of them become a cheater
    1:11:46 and infidelitus and all this kind of stuff because they,
    1:11:48 and I have no idea.
    1:11:50 But, but I know for me what is meaningful
    1:11:51 and what makes me feel good.
    1:11:55 And it’s a totally selfish thing that is about solving
    1:11:55 for what I want.
    1:11:58 Selflessly, I think it ends up being virtuous.
    1:12:01 So what would your top like three or four priorities be then
    1:12:03 if you were to outline them?
    1:12:06 My kids and my wife call it family number one.
    1:12:07 I mean, you know, you think about like the people
    1:12:09 that have lost everything physically and materialistically
    1:12:12 in the fires recently in LA.
    1:12:14 Like family is like, you know,
    1:12:15 and I don’t care over time as they grow up
    1:12:17 and where they are and they’re, you know,
    1:12:19 but that to me is like the most important thing.
    1:12:22 And number two is purpose and meaning.
    1:12:23 I think this is a universal thing,
    1:12:26 but I feel lucky that I enjoy what I do.
    1:12:28 It’s an intellectual puzzle.
    1:12:32 There’s times of like great fierce competition.
    1:12:34 We’re losing to, you know, I don’t like to lose.
    1:12:38 We’re losing out to another firm that’s got an entrepreneur.
    1:12:40 I like the intellectual gratification
    1:12:41 of being right when other people are wrong.
    1:12:43 I’m very intellectually competitive that way
    1:12:46 and discovering something that people haven’t discovered.
    1:12:49 I always talk about Linus Pauling, the double Nobel laureate
    1:12:51 who wanted for both chemistry and peace.
    1:12:54 And he has this quote about science,
    1:12:56 which I just absolutely love.
    1:13:00 And this is like, I hope until I’m 90 or 100 or 110
    1:13:02 or whatever modern science lets me live till
    1:13:04 that I continue to have this
    1:13:05 ’cause it’s an addictive feeling,
    1:13:08 which is that I know something that nobody else knows
    1:13:11 and they won’t know until I tell them.
    1:13:14 And I love that discovering a legal secret
    1:13:17 and knowing that this is going to be announced
    1:13:18 at the scientific breakthroughs coming
    1:13:19 and nobody else knows about it yet.
    1:13:21 So that to me is like meaning and purpose.
    1:13:24 It’s intellectually competitive
    1:13:27 and I understand the intellectual competitiveness.
    1:13:27 I wanna be right.
    1:13:29 I wanna make money.
    1:13:31 I want the credit for it,
    1:13:32 but it really is about like the status
    1:13:33 ’cause otherwise you would just do these things
    1:13:34 in private and totally in quiet.
    1:13:37 But I like that feeling of that,
    1:13:42 even if it’s being glorious and ego and all vanity.
    1:13:43 So family, that sense of purpose
    1:13:46 driven by this intellectual competitiveness.
    1:13:49 And then I think I didn’t appreciate this as much,
    1:13:51 but it’s sort of adjacent to the first.
    1:13:54 There’s a handful of people who I imagine myself
    1:13:56 like retiring with or like guy friends
    1:13:58 and people that I enjoy spending time with
    1:14:00 that have the same sort of values
    1:14:02 and they’re very family driven.
    1:14:05 And so my cousin in particular,
    1:14:07 this amazing guy, Jason Redless,
    1:14:09 one of my wife’s best friends,
    1:14:10 this woman, Molly Carmel.
    1:14:12 They’re both, we call it family.
    1:14:13 They’re like friends and family.
    1:14:15 But yeah, it’s a powerful thing
    1:14:16 that I don’t wanna ever lose.
    1:14:18 – That’s awesome.
    1:14:20 You process a ton of information.
    1:14:24 What’s that workflow like for information to get to you?
    1:14:27 How are you using technology to filter?
    1:14:29 How are you filtering information?
    1:14:31 – So I typically go to bed between 12 and 12 30,
    1:14:36 wake up around seven kids before they leave for school,
    1:14:38 about 40 minutes.
    1:14:39 I do a lot of physical activity,
    1:14:42 usually three days a week between working out,
    1:14:44 trainer, jujitsu, all kinds of interesting stuff.
    1:14:47 But probably about an hour to an hour and a half
    1:14:50 in the mornings of reading through
    1:14:53 something like 40 different papers now.
    1:14:54 It used to be like seven,
    1:14:56 but then when I start to travel internationally,
    1:14:57 if I went to the mid-east,
    1:15:00 I would find an English version of some of the key papers,
    1:15:01 same thing in Japan and elsewhere.
    1:15:03 And so now I read a lot of international papers.
    1:15:07 And when I say read, I use an app called PressReader.
    1:15:09 It has the digital replica of the specific version,
    1:15:10 which I really value.
    1:15:11 And I know we’ve talked about this in the past,
    1:15:14 but I like to know what the editor put on C22.
    1:15:17 That’s not as visible on the website
    1:15:20 because there’s meta information that the editor is saying,
    1:15:21 this is not important to be on the front page,
    1:15:24 but if I disagree and I think that there’s a magnitude
    1:15:25 of informational importance,
    1:15:28 that to me is like some sort of edge.
    1:15:30 Then I will take screenshots of those.
    1:15:34 And so I will sort of call it scout and scour
    1:15:35 through all these papers,
    1:15:37 take screenshots in some cases,
    1:15:41 I may even take those screenshots and put them into an AI.
    1:15:43 And basically say, give me a summary of this article
    1:15:46 or give me the three key quotes that really matter.
    1:15:50 And so I’ll go down all kinds of like rabbit holes with that.
    1:15:50 So that’s the first,
    1:15:54 which is just like call it 24 hours worth of information
    1:15:56 that is basically put into editorial decree.
    1:15:59 You can usually get the FT in New York time
    1:16:01 like four, five, six PM Eastern time.
    1:16:03 And so you have a little bit of information edge
    1:16:05 because most people don’t get the FT
    1:16:06 for another 12 or 14 hours,
    1:16:08 but they don’t know that they could get it online,
    1:16:10 but that is valuable.
    1:16:11 And I care about all those things,
    1:16:14 including not the sophisticated newspapers,
    1:16:16 but like the less sophisticated ones like USA Today,
    1:16:18 and I wanna know what is the average person going to read
    1:16:19 when they wake up in a Marriott
    1:16:20 and get the paper delivered under their door
    1:16:22 and that kind of stuff.
    1:16:25 Then Twitter, I have all kinds of lists that I follow.
    1:16:25 And at any given time,
    1:16:28 it might be something that is geopolitical
    1:16:29 and war related where I’m going down to deep hole
    1:16:31 or sometimes it’s AI and technology,
    1:16:32 sometimes it’s my team
    1:16:34 and what they’re posting and reading about,
    1:16:35 but a lot on Twitter,
    1:16:37 which I find truly invaluable.
    1:16:38 I mean, I know a lot of people say
    1:16:40 it’s like this dark cesspool of whatever,
    1:16:42 but you can just filter through and cut out the people.
    1:16:44 I’m muting and blocking people all the time.
    1:16:46 And I’m discovering all kinds of
    1:16:47 just absolutely incredible people.
    1:16:49 It has been, as you know,
    1:16:50 from one of our first conversations,
    1:16:52 like this idea of randomness and optionality,
    1:16:54 it is this huge randomness generator,
    1:16:56 this huge optionality generator and the accessibility.
    1:16:58 And I just, I absolutely love it.
    1:17:01 So that’s another thing where I’m really rooting for Elon
    1:17:03 in the continued success of X
    1:17:05 because I’ll continue to pay a lot of money for it.
    1:17:07 And I pay more money for it,
    1:17:10 but I find it super valuable and it’s real time pulse.
    1:17:12 And I’m excited for GROC to continue
    1:17:15 ’cause I think that GROC and X just continue to sort of,
    1:17:16 I mean, that’s a repository.
    1:17:18 We talked about that before, repository of information.
    1:17:21 – One of the first things Elon did was cut off access
    1:17:23 to Google from the data. – Totally.
    1:17:25 And I think that’s the right move, right?
    1:17:28 This is our platform, same way as Meta has.
    1:17:31 So I think that that repository of everybody’s tweets
    1:17:33 and retweets and likes and the comments that they’ve made,
    1:17:34 you can already go on and do this
    1:17:37 in sort of a relatively superficial way
    1:17:39 where you can say roast me.
    1:17:40 And it will basically off your past,
    1:17:43 I don’t know, like 25 or 30 tweets sort of roast you
    1:17:45 based on what you’ve tweeted about,
    1:17:47 but they’re a longitudinal access of people
    1:17:50 that have 10,000, 100,000 tweets
    1:17:53 is an amazing pastiche of like, you know what,
    1:17:55 there’s an interesting thing here
    1:17:58 which we were just riffing on internally,
    1:17:59 which I’ll come back to.
    1:18:00 Just remind me on sort of wrapping yourself
    1:18:04 in this information mosaic and breaking free from it.
    1:18:07 But papers in the morning, Twitter, internal Slack,
    1:18:11 emails, texts, you know, just like processing
    1:18:15 all this information, I use rewind on my Mac,
    1:18:18 which is effectively doing nonstop screen capture.
    1:18:20 And there will be other tools like this in part
    1:18:21 because I do not remember the source
    1:18:22 when I saw the information.
    1:18:24 It’s sort of the same thing of like,
    1:18:26 if you see a show and you were to ask me today,
    1:18:28 like where did you, I don’t know, it was on Apple TV,
    1:18:29 like was it on Paramount?
    1:18:30 Was it on CBS?
    1:18:31 Was it on Netflix?
    1:18:33 Like I have no idea, right?
    1:18:35 And in fact, usually when I do the Apple search
    1:18:37 and it doesn’t show up, it means it’s on Netflix
    1:18:39 ’cause it can search Netflix, right?
    1:18:42 Yeah, just huge information omnivore, everything.
    1:18:46 And then there’s some random writer that I follow
    1:18:48 that’s like Catherine Schultz at the New Yorker,
    1:18:51 Adam Gopnik and people whose style of writing
    1:18:53 and the selection of their subjects.
    1:18:54 I find really interesting
    1:18:56 and then I’ll go deep into some of their themes.
    1:18:58 – So you use rewind, press reader.
    1:19:00 What are the other like technological tools
    1:19:01 that you’re finding super valuable?
    1:19:05 – Every AI, I might take an essay, read it,
    1:19:08 ask it to summarize the key points,
    1:19:10 ask it to put it in different voices,
    1:19:12 take two different essays and say,
    1:19:13 where do these things agree or disagree?
    1:19:16 And so yeah, like just nonstop.
    1:19:21 I’m on AI easily more than Google now,
    1:19:23 but I don’t know, two, three hours a day.
    1:19:24 – What have you learned about prompting
    1:19:27 that would help everybody get better results?
    1:19:31 – Usually very specific, like I give it a priming thing,
    1:19:34 like you are the world’s, it’s a neuroscience paper.
    1:19:36 You are the world’s greatest expert in neuroscience.
    1:19:39 You have read every paper that has been published.
    1:19:43 You have both a skeptical eye to new claims,
    1:19:47 but you are also open-minded to interesting correlations
    1:19:48 that might not have been considered.
    1:19:53 Read this paper and give me the three most provocative,
    1:19:56 non-obvious points and give me the three cliches.
    1:19:57 And so just, and by the way,
    1:20:01 I will put them into three different models at the same time.
    1:20:03 So I will open three different browsers,
    1:20:05 arrange them and put it into chat GPT,
    1:20:06 put it into Claude, put it into one of the perplexing models
    1:20:08 that’s not running on those two.
    1:20:11 And sometimes I’ll mix and match them.
    1:20:12 – I love that.
    1:20:15 – It’s sort of like a pallet of mixing.
    1:20:18 We have not yet done this as a partnership,
    1:20:21 but we’ve talked about it, having an AI partner.
    1:20:25 There’s still a behavioral discomfort
    1:20:26 about recording conversations.
    1:20:28 You and I are recording our conversation now.
    1:20:30 But every partnership discussion we have,
    1:20:34 we were confident that it was protected and encrypted
    1:20:37 because we might say things that could be harmful.
    1:20:38 – You don’t want them coming at.
    1:20:40 – We could insult somebody or like,
    1:20:42 or we have a piece of intel that we don’t want out.
    1:20:45 But if we were comfortable that it was perfectly private,
    1:20:48 which is a hard thing to promise, but if it was,
    1:20:50 you would have a repository of every conversation
    1:20:53 we’ve ever had over the past X number of years,
    1:20:55 the decisions that we wrestled with,
    1:20:57 you would be able to have somebody to advise us,
    1:20:59 an AI to advise us,
    1:21:02 where are we showing biases in consistency
    1:21:04 between a decision we made three months ago and this?
    1:21:06 What is different this time?
    1:21:08 Which voices are not speaking up?
    1:21:09 And you can already get this in some cases
    1:21:11 with like certain Zoom calls or other recording things
    1:21:14 where it’ll tell you who spoke for how long.
    1:21:18 And then you could run like a Bayesian analysis of,
    1:21:20 okay, given that we’re looking at these two companies,
    1:21:21 give me the outside view,
    1:21:24 the base rate of success historically,
    1:21:25 which in venture honestly doesn’t matter,
    1:21:27 but and then give me a Kelly criterion
    1:21:28 of how you might size this
    1:21:30 based on the projected internal confidence.
    1:21:31 And so there’s all kinds of things
    1:21:34 that we could internally do to use these tools,
    1:21:37 which I think over time we’ll probably experiment with.
    1:21:40 But the biggest thing is basically having like
    1:21:41 a capture of everything, you know,
    1:21:43 everything that you see, everything that you hear,
    1:21:46 everything that my, I’ve already given over again
    1:21:48 to the privacy gods, everything that my screen sees.
    1:21:51 And so I trust that that siloed on my device,
    1:21:52 it’s not going to the cloud,
    1:21:53 but it’s super helpful when I’m trying to search
    1:21:55 for something I’m like, was that a Gmail?
    1:21:56 Was that a text?
    1:21:57 Was that a thing on Twitter?
    1:21:58 Was that a PDF I read?
    1:21:59 Where did I see that?
    1:22:03 And the ability to DVR my life is super valuable.
    1:22:04 If I could do that with my conversations,
    1:22:06 like who said that the other day?
    1:22:08 In fact, Lauren and I just had somebody over,
    1:22:10 you know, we host people at our house
    1:22:12 and we couldn’t remember who told us this thing.
    1:22:14 And we were like, I had to go through my calendar
    1:22:15 to see who was over on Thursday or Friday.
    1:22:17 Oh yeah, okay, it was, you know,
    1:22:20 but being able to search your life instantly,
    1:22:23 I think it’s going to be a generational change
    1:22:25 in the same way that people were not comfortable,
    1:22:26 you know, posting on Facebook.
    1:22:28 And then they were comfortable.
    1:22:30 And then like now people are like posting themselves
    1:22:34 in swimsuits and bikinis and it just doesn’t matter.
    1:22:36 That to me is going to be a big step change.
    1:22:38 I want to come back to the info mosaic,
    1:22:40 but one thing we never talked about YouTube
    1:22:43 being like such a huge data source.
    1:22:43 Incredible.
    1:22:45 Closed and slightly open, I guess.
    1:22:46 Yeah.
    1:22:47 In some ways.
    1:22:49 Yeah, like, well, I love that moment
    1:22:52 when I think it was Mira from OpenAI was asked,
    1:22:54 like, you know, so did you train?
    1:22:56 And she was like, but you didn’t want to answer.
    1:22:57 Crickets.
    1:22:58 Yeah.
    1:23:02 Okay, the info mosaic and breaking free from sort of like,
    1:23:04 one thing I do love about acts is that
    1:23:07 it shows you views that are contrary to your own,
    1:23:09 like the algorithms gotten pretty good at.
    1:23:10 Yes.
    1:23:12 And there are, what is it, ground news
    1:23:13 that you can sort of do this
    1:23:16 where it will actually give you a bias on, you know,
    1:23:18 certain things and it’ll give you both sides of the view.
    1:23:19 So if you truly are objective
    1:23:21 and like truly knowledge seeking,
    1:23:23 then you would want to experience that.
    1:23:24 And I feel like that will be an option
    1:23:26 that you just click and enable feature
    1:23:28 and you know, it’s able to identify some of the biases
    1:23:29 and whatnot.
    1:23:30 This idea of the information mosaic
    1:23:33 was a recent conversation I was having with my colleague,
    1:23:34 Danny Crichton, who runs like our risk gaming stuff
    1:23:36 where we’re coming up with all kinds of crazy scenarios
    1:23:39 and imagining these low probability, high magnitude events.
    1:23:42 And the idea was that over time,
    1:23:46 this perfect simulacrum of Shane or of Josh
    1:23:47 is going to exist.
    1:23:49 Everything that I’ve ever said on every podcast,
    1:23:50 everything I’ve ever written publicly,
    1:23:51 forgetting all my private thoughts,
    1:23:53 but just everything that I’m out there publicly,
    1:23:54 my voice, my tone, okay.
    1:23:58 And so I almost imagined it like this matrix like mosaic,
    1:24:01 like a Spider-Man costume that’s like form fitting.
    1:24:04 It’s me or a close approximation of me.
    1:24:06 But what if you want to break free from that?
    1:24:08 In a sense, if I said,
    1:24:10 give me something in the style of Shane Parish,
    1:24:11 it might conjure something in the style of Shane Parish,
    1:24:13 but in the style of Josh Wolf
    1:24:17 or in the style of David Milch or Christopher Hitchens,
    1:24:20 you know, I actually love invoking dead voices,
    1:24:22 you know, to sort of bring them back from the dead, right?
    1:24:24 And have them opine on the topic.
    1:24:25 What would Christopher Hitchens say
    1:24:27 about this article, blah, blah, blah.
    1:24:30 But what if I wanted to break free stylistically?
    1:24:35 If I said, give me a image of a horse in Tribeca
    1:24:37 in the style of Wes Anderson.
    1:24:40 You know, I can imagine the pastel palettes
    1:24:42 that it would conjure and you could imagine that too
    1:24:45 with the, you know, rectilinear framing and whatever.
    1:24:48 But what if Wes Anderson suddenly had like a new
    1:24:51 stylistic change in his over and wanted to just shift?
    1:24:53 Like he’d be constrained, you know,
    1:24:56 in the same way that people hate when, you know,
    1:24:57 I don’t know, maybe when Dylan went electric
    1:25:00 or like, you know, somebody else changes their style
    1:25:01 or their genre.
    1:25:05 And so there’s this aspect where AI constrains you.
    1:25:10 And they’re just sort of playing with this idea of,
    1:25:12 you know, how do you break free in the same way
    1:25:15 that there might be like the right to be forgotten
    1:25:16 that maybe you want to change your style.
    1:25:19 The great virtue of college for most people
    1:25:22 is this quartet of years where you can break free
    1:25:25 from who you were for the past four years.
    1:25:27 And nobody knows who you were and what you cared about.
    1:25:31 And maybe you were into heavy metal,
    1:25:34 but you were in like the band, you know,
    1:25:35 and you couldn’t break free or maybe you were gay
    1:25:38 and nobody knew or all these things that you can just
    1:25:41 suddenly like be yourself and explore new things.
    1:25:45 And there’s this element where the great virtue of college
    1:25:48 is self-expiration against the constraints of high school,
    1:25:51 but could AI be this constraining force?
    1:25:53 Because the more content that you put into it,
    1:25:55 the more it knows you,
    1:25:59 the more you may have trouble varying from it.
    1:26:01 And so there’s something interesting there.
    1:26:02 – I like that a lot.
    1:26:05 Let’s talk military and technology
    1:26:08 and you guys are big investors in Antrol.
    1:26:10 Where’s that going in the future?
    1:26:13 – Well, there’s gonna be a lot more brilliant minds,
    1:26:16 I think that feel comfortable, motivated,
    1:26:20 not only by a sense of purpose, patriotism,
    1:26:23 but also principle and capital making that they see,
    1:26:25 the things that they doubted early on,
    1:26:26 like why is this time different
    1:26:29 in another defense company of which there weren’t very many,
    1:26:32 but seeing Andrew’s ascendancy and valuation
    1:26:34 and success and program wins,
    1:26:35 I think has inspired a lot of people
    1:26:37 like wait, there’s something going on here.
    1:26:39 We went from 50 primes down to five,
    1:26:42 you’re seeing the rise of these neoprimes.
    1:26:44 I deeply believe that Antrol in the next few years
    1:26:48 will be a $30 to $50 billion publicly traded business,
    1:26:52 doing single digit mid billions of revenue
    1:26:53 with software like margins
    1:26:55 that are not like these cost plus margins.
    1:26:57 So that is gonna usher in a big wave
    1:26:59 and they’re buying companies,
    1:27:00 they’re acquiring smaller businesses,
    1:27:03 but you’ll continue to see that sort of evolution
    1:27:05 in a world that people realize
    1:27:07 is not kumbaya peace and safety.
    1:27:12 There are bad actors that when we take a step back
    1:27:15 or on our back foot or a little bit permissive
    1:27:18 that they arm up, it happened with Iran.
    1:27:21 And I think the prior administrations from Obama and Biden
    1:27:24 were well-intentioned in trying to bring them
    1:27:28 into the Western world, but it was a sort of ruse
    1:27:29 from Iran standpoint.
    1:27:33 Same thing with Gaza and Israel and Russia
    1:27:35 and who thought that we were gonna see a land war
    1:27:38 in the 21st century where Russia would invade Ukraine
    1:27:43 and China and Taiwan and North Korea
    1:27:45 and the African continent,
    1:27:47 if we talked about in the Sahel Maghreb,
    1:27:49 infiltration of a lot of these groups into South America.
    1:27:52 I mean, there’s just lots of conflict waiting
    1:27:57 and the best way to avoid conflict is to have deterrence.
    1:28:00 And if Ukraine had nuclear weapons,
    1:28:01 Putin wouldn’t have invaded.
    1:28:03 Most of the West and NATO really said,
    1:28:04 “Don’t worry, we got your back.”
    1:28:06 And even though you’re not part of NATO
    1:28:08 and they never nuclearized,
    1:28:13 I think the world, timelessly through all of human history,
    1:28:18 is gonna face enormous conflict, resource wars,
    1:28:20 water may be next.
    1:28:24 I think there’s something like 1,900 active conflicts
    1:28:26 around the world, around water rights.
    1:28:28 You look at China and Pakistan, control of the water.
    1:28:32 I mean, there’s just like a lot of resources.
    1:28:36 You look at disrupting undersea cables,
    1:28:38 sabotage efforts.
    1:28:40 You look at deep sea mining.
    1:28:42 You look at space as another frontier.
    1:28:46 There’s just a lot of opportunities for zero-sum conflict.
    1:28:49 And when you can’t reconcile those conflicts
    1:28:52 through diplomacy or negotiations or agreement,
    1:28:54 it goes to violence.
    1:28:58 And the people that can bring or effect or export violence
    1:28:59 typically have the upper hand.
    1:29:03 And part of what has made this country great
    1:29:05 and made it powerful and made it the economic juggernaut
    1:29:10 is that it is allowing for the low entropy system,
    1:29:14 even though the country at times seems chaotic,
    1:29:16 that allows for the high entropy production
    1:29:20 of entrepreneurial ideas and free market capitalism
    1:29:23 and booms and busts is that we have
    1:29:25 the most powerful military on the planet.
    1:29:28 You could argue that that didn’t just benefit the United States.
    1:29:31 It benefited Canada, Europe, it benefited a lot of–
    1:29:32 Mexico are allies for sure.
    1:29:34 You can watch many fictional movies
    1:29:36 that have run these counterfactuals
    1:29:38 of what would have happened if Nazi Germany had won
    1:29:43 or the Russians had landed for all mankind
    1:29:45 before we did in the moon.
    1:29:48 But we’re getting away from an era
    1:29:53 of like, here’s a trillion dollar boat effectively.
    1:29:56 It depends who you talk to, if shouldn’t we?
    1:29:58 Like, I mean, if that boat can be taken out
    1:30:01 by a $3,000 drone, how effective is it?
    1:30:03 Yes, for sure, the asymmetry of a threat
    1:30:08 of an aircraft carrier against a large fleet of drones.
    1:30:10 It is very much, if you talk to Sam Paparo,
    1:30:11 who’s the head of Indo-Pakarm,
    1:30:13 he will say it is all about mass on target.
    1:30:18 There’s certain things that automation cannot do.
    1:30:19 And he wants what he calls,
    1:30:20 which I guess is a technical term,
    1:30:24 a hellscape in that region, the Taiwan Straits
    1:30:29 and South China Sea, so that you make it really impossible
    1:30:32 for them to have any military dominance.
    1:30:36 But it is an era where it’s about,
    1:30:38 you saw this again with Iran and Israel and Gaza
    1:30:42 and Syria’s missiles and counter missiles
    1:30:44 and rockets and intercontinental ballistic missiles
    1:30:47 and hypersonics and space weapons.
    1:30:50 It is just about going back to almost like
    1:30:53 Planet of the Apes, one ape through another,
    1:30:56 a rocket another or a twig or a stroller.
    1:30:58 The weapons get more powerful,
    1:30:59 but the behavior doesn’t change.
    1:31:01 We’re back to throwing projectiles at each other,
    1:31:03 and it’s just they’re automated,
    1:31:07 they’re at speeds or at levels of
    1:31:10 a treatable, overwhelming defensive forces
    1:31:12 that that is the battlefield.
    1:31:15 Do you think values become a disadvantage in some ways then?
    1:31:18 Like for example, if the United States were,
    1:31:21 we need a human operator to pull the trigger
    1:31:22 and another country was no,
    1:31:24 it could be completely automated.
    1:31:24 For sure.
    1:31:26 And therefore in a dogfight,
    1:31:28 we’re likely to more win.
    1:31:31 Look, this is already happening in the information space
    1:31:35 where we have certain and in the autonomous space.
    1:31:40 I was in the Pacific region with SOCOM,
    1:31:43 and there’s a drone operator who’s flying the drone.
    1:31:44 There’s another drone operator
    1:31:48 who’s piloting the weapon system,
    1:31:49 and there’s two lawyers.
    1:31:51 So they’re helping the commander
    1:31:54 who is effectively given like a God shot of,
    1:31:57 how many combatants and civilians can be killed
    1:32:00 and what ratio, and sometimes it’s like five to one
    1:32:03 or 10 to one, but there’s lawyers that can authorize
    1:32:06 because we have a certain rule of engagement
    1:32:09 that frankly gives these military personnel
    1:32:13 the ethical comfort that this is a superior system.
    1:32:15 But for sure, if there are people that don’t have
    1:32:17 that same moral code, in some cases,
    1:32:20 they can be at least temporarily advantaged.
    1:32:22 – Well, you can think of that through AI too,
    1:32:23 not just military, right?
    1:32:26 If we restrict, we put restrictions on any technology
    1:32:28 and another country doesn’t,
    1:32:31 sometimes that can cause an advantage to another country.
    1:32:34 – China has the 50 cent army.
    1:32:37 These people are getting 50 cents for every tweet
    1:32:38 and information they put out.
    1:32:40 The State Department, when they want to tweet something out
    1:32:43 through groups, there’s literally like a disclaimer
    1:32:45 that says, and it’s like one woman in Tampa
    1:32:48 that’s doing this, like this was sponsored by the state.
    1:32:50 So we have these ethical restrictions,
    1:32:54 which definitely tie our hands behind our back
    1:32:55 in some cases.
    1:32:57 And our enemies will always try to weaponize this.
    1:32:59 So, I mean, you can look at many vectors today
    1:33:01 that don’t seem like they’re threat vectors,
    1:33:03 but they have been weaponized.
    1:33:05 Social media information, we know.
    1:33:09 And the best fix for that is identifying the bad actors
    1:33:11 and also inoculating people with a heightened degree
    1:33:13 of skepticism, but the vast majority
    1:33:15 of the American population will not be inoculated.
    1:33:17 They will see the things that they want to see.
    1:33:19 They will follow the accounts that they want to follow.
    1:33:22 And then occasionally those accounts will start to pepper
    1:33:24 in other information that they want people to believe.
    1:33:27 And that’s how information cascades can go.
    1:33:29 We have open systems, immigration.
    1:33:31 You’re seeing a lot of the rise
    1:33:34 of the populist anti-immigrant movement in part
    1:33:37 because in some cases it’s a result of good intentions
    1:33:40 of providing sanctuary cities and wanting to help people
    1:33:43 and provide amnesty and help immigrants come here
    1:33:44 because that’s what our country was built on.
    1:33:46 And then you want those people to assimilate.
    1:33:48 And when they’re not assimilating,
    1:33:50 but then you also have bad actors like Putin
    1:33:52 who has weaponized immigration and put migrants
    1:33:54 on people’s borders to create pressures
    1:33:56 so that you can get a political movement
    1:33:58 from inside the country that will be sympathetic
    1:33:59 to the nationalist sensibilities
    1:34:02 and he’s orchestrated that very well.
    1:34:05 And so infiltration into our university systems,
    1:34:08 which accept foreign capital and you see Qatar
    1:34:12 that has influenced very massively domestic US universities.
    1:34:13 China doesn’t allow that.
    1:34:16 US is not able to come in and sponsor Chinese universities.
    1:34:18 TikTok, of course, a huge one, right?
    1:34:20 We banned it years ago,
    1:34:23 right when it had become TikTok for musically,
    1:34:24 in part because at the time,
    1:34:26 I seemed like a conspiratorial nuts saying,
    1:34:28 I don’t trust this with the Chinese Communist Party
    1:34:29 having control over this.
    1:34:32 And then behind the scenes myself and many others
    1:34:35 have played a role in helping to orchestrate what I hope
    1:34:38 will not be thwarted by Trump to see this divested.
    1:34:41 I have no problem with people using TikTok,
    1:34:44 but it should not be in the hands of the algorithm
    1:34:46 and control of the Chinese Communist Party.
    1:34:48 And it’s on a lot of government phones.
    1:34:49 It’s insane.
    1:34:50 It’s really interesting.
    1:34:52 Why haven’t we seen more isolated attacks
    1:34:54 that are cheap and using technology?
    1:34:56 And what I mean by that is,
    1:34:59 nefarious actor can probably for two or three grand
    1:35:03 effectively plot an assassination.
    1:35:04 I guess the question would be to what end?
    1:35:07 And so you still have to realize that many people,
    1:35:09 even if they’re like evil geniuses,
    1:35:12 have an objective in mind.
    1:35:14 And do they just want to sow chaos
    1:35:15 and create distrust in the system
    1:35:17 and have people scrambling?
    1:35:19 Whereas they’re an opportune time to strike.
    1:35:24 Think about the Israel operation with the Beeper plan.
    1:35:25 This was 10 years in the making.
    1:35:27 Now they could have done it at any point in time
    1:35:30 five years ago, but they waited until a precise moment.
    1:35:32 And so being able to do the thing
    1:35:34 and deciding when you do the thing
    1:35:36 are two different decisions.
    1:35:39 But I think that we’ve been warned for a very long time
    1:35:41 about hacking and infiltration
    1:35:44 into our physical infrastructure, for sure.
    1:35:46 Somebody could shut down air traffic control.
    1:35:47 And what we saw just recently
    1:35:49 between the Black Hawk helicopter
    1:35:52 and this regional plane from, was it Kansas City?
    1:35:54 You know, crash in Washington, DC.
    1:35:58 You could see the FAA shutdown and have a glitch.
    1:36:01 You can have infiltration into our banking system
    1:36:03 and just like the Sony hack, right?
    1:36:05 The big thing with the Sony hack
    1:36:07 was not that the systems were disabled.
    1:36:09 It’s that information was revealed.
    1:36:10 You want to create civil war in this country.
    1:36:13 Just reveal everybody’s emails for the past year.
    1:36:15 The things that we’ve said about each other, you know.
    1:36:17 I mean that like reveal truth in a sense, right?
    1:36:18 It was the great irony.
    1:36:21 So the obfuscation of these things in private
    1:36:23 helped to create a civil society.
    1:36:26 Our water systems, our infrastructure, our traffic lights,
    1:36:27 you know, I mean, all the things that you’ve seen
    1:36:31 in sci-fi movies when like things just start breaking,
    1:36:36 I’m actually amazed that our infrastructure globally,
    1:36:39 but you know, even in New York City, even in this office,
    1:36:42 there’s a million skews in this office.
    1:36:44 You know, above our heads right now,
    1:36:45 there’s an HVAC system.
    1:36:46 Like the fact that we trust this system
    1:36:49 and it’s not gonna fall and explode or blow up like,
    1:36:52 and then we’re shocked when these things do,
    1:36:54 but I’m constantly amazed that the entropy,
    1:36:57 the forces of entropy are constrained
    1:36:59 by either really good engineering
    1:37:02 or inspection of systems or whatever it might be,
    1:37:03 the maintenance of systems,
    1:37:05 which is another really interesting thing.
    1:37:07 This idea of maintenance.
    1:37:11 Like the past 10 years have been all about growth,
    1:37:12 growth, growth, growth.
    1:37:15 You go to financial statement on CapEx,
    1:37:16 you’ve got growth and you’ve got maintenance.
    1:37:19 And I think in a world where rising cost of capital
    1:37:21 keeps going up for a variety of reasons.
    1:37:22 I think there’s a ton of dry powder
    1:37:24 and venture capital and private equity,
    1:37:25 but a lot of it I call wet powder
    1:37:27 because this money is basically reserved
    1:37:29 for companies and people don’t realize.
    1:37:32 Reshoring, all of these things, you know,
    1:37:33 tariffs, they’re gonna be inflationary,
    1:37:35 they’re gonna be a rising cost of capital.
    1:37:37 If you have a rising cost of capital,
    1:37:40 if you are a CFO or you’re on a board
    1:37:41 and you’re thinking about good governance
    1:37:43 and capital allocation,
    1:37:44 we’re not buying the next new hot thing
    1:37:46 unless we really have to like AI today.
    1:37:47 – Yeah.
    1:37:49 – We’re thinking about how do we maintain
    1:37:50 the existing assets we have?
    1:37:52 And those assets could be satellites up in space,
    1:37:54 they could be military installations,
    1:37:56 they could be our telecom infrastructure,
    1:37:59 our bridges, our waterways, sanitation, processing,
    1:38:01 our HVAC systems, our industrial systems,
    1:38:03 all those things that need to be maintained.
    1:38:06 So I’m increasingly interested in new technologies.
    1:38:08 This could be software, services, sensors,
    1:38:12 all kinds of things that can help apply to old systems
    1:38:12 to maintain them for longer,
    1:38:15 depreciate them for longer, let them last for longer.
    1:38:16 I think there’s gonna be increasing demand
    1:38:18 for maintenance of systems.
    1:38:20 But I’m amazed that everything around us
    1:38:21 is just not constantly breaking.
    1:38:24 It truly is like miraculous.
    1:38:25 – It is when you think about it, right?
    1:38:26 Yeah.
    1:38:28 What do you think of Doge?
    1:38:30 – The currency or the initiative?
    1:38:32 – The initiative, no talk crypt.
    1:38:36 I think it’s a virtuous thing because
    1:38:39 it’s shining a spotlight on a lot of things
    1:38:40 that were just done because they were done
    1:38:42 and you get this bloat.
    1:38:45 Or in some cases there was like overt obfuscation.
    1:38:48 So I think sunlight heals all and putting a spotlight
    1:38:52 on ridiculous spending or ridiculous inefficient things.
    1:38:56 I will say I grew up sort of a center left Democrat
    1:38:57 my entire life.
    1:38:59 The first time you go to the DMV,
    1:39:00 you become a Republican.
    1:39:04 Like it’s just like you want systems that have competition
    1:39:06 because competition makes things better
    1:39:08 because if you have a monopoly on something
    1:39:10 you don’t have to improve.
    1:39:12 If there’s one regional carrier for an airline,
    1:39:14 if there’s one restaurant,
    1:39:17 if there’s one place you have to go to for your passport,
    1:39:19 you don’t want that sort of centralized control
    1:39:20 because the service is going to suck
    1:39:22 because they don’t have to do any better.
    1:39:26 So I think if you can put a spotlight on excess
    1:39:29 and waste and bureaucracy and at least begin
    1:39:32 the conversations at a bare minimum of wait,
    1:39:34 we’re spending how much money on what?
    1:39:36 I think that that’s a virtuous thing.
    1:39:39 Whether or not these things will be effective
    1:39:42 at really reducing costs, TBD,
    1:39:44 but it actually seems quite positive
    1:39:46 that they may hit some of their targets
    1:39:49 of trying to reach what is it a billion a day or more.
    1:39:52 And if that could end up reducing the deficit by 10%
    1:39:54 or 20% let alone 50% going from two trillion
    1:39:56 to a trillion would be incredible.
    1:39:59 So whatever the motivation,
    1:40:00 I don’t believe it’s patriotism.
    1:40:02 It could be intellectually competitive.
    1:40:03 It could be power.
    1:40:04 Whatever the motivation,
    1:40:07 I think that the means to the end,
    1:40:09 I think the end is a virtuous pursuit.
    1:40:12 If you were to take over a country effectively
    1:40:15 and you were in charge of policies and regulations,
    1:40:17 what would you do to attract capital
    1:40:21 and become competitive over the next 20 or 30 years?
    1:40:22 What sort of things would you implement?
    1:40:25 What would you get away from and not do?
    1:40:27 Well, I have an adjacent answer
    1:40:29 of if I were Secretary of State or Secretary of Defense
    1:40:31 for the day, which I’ll give you first,
    1:40:34 which is I would really put priority on Africa
    1:40:36 as a continent and particularly that Sahel Maghreb
    1:40:38 because I do believe between violent extremists,
    1:40:41 Russian mercenaries, China infrastructure,
    1:40:43 you are one terror event away projected into Europe
    1:40:45 that creates the next Afghanistan
    1:40:48 and suddenly NATO and the US are in there dealing with ISIS.
    1:40:50 You’re already seeing the first authorized strike
    1:40:53 by Trump on ISIS in Somalia.
    1:40:58 And so you’ve got Sudan, Chad, Mali, Niger,
    1:41:00 like it is just a hotbed of people
    1:41:02 that were coming from Syria and Afghanistan,
    1:41:05 Islamic extremists, it is a bad situation.
    1:41:07 And I think that we should be proactive there
    1:41:08 before we have to be reactive
    1:41:10 and it’s a lot more costly in lives and money
    1:41:12 and blood and treasure.
    1:41:12 The second thing I would do is a
    1:41:15 hemispheric hegemony declaration.
    1:41:19 I just went to Nicaragua, Nicaragua for a variety of reasons.
    1:41:20 We went instead of Costa Rica,
    1:41:22 but I feel much safer in Costa Rica.
    1:41:23 And I was worried that I was not gonna be able
    1:41:24 to leave Nicaragua and we went with a friend
    1:41:26 who happens to be a prominent journalist.
    1:41:28 He was not allowed entry into the country.
    1:41:31 So it really through our family vacation,
    1:41:35 his family of five, my family of five for a wrench
    1:41:39 because the government is trying to take over
    1:41:42 the banking system and they don’t want it to be covered
    1:41:43 by financial journalists and these kinds of things.
    1:41:46 And you look at who is in there
    1:41:48 and you literally have presence from Hezbollah,
    1:41:51 from China, CCP, from Iran.
    1:41:52 It’s a bad situation.
    1:41:58 The places that we think in most of Central America’s,
    1:42:01 Caribbean, South America are vacation spots
    1:42:04 where we get our coffee and we go on a nice vacation,
    1:42:06 massive infiltration from adversaries.
    1:42:09 And so I think we are losing the game
    1:42:11 and I would declare almost like a new monorail doctrine
    1:42:15 kind of thing where we say the entire Western hemisphere,
    1:42:17 you’ve got a billion people,
    1:42:21 both ability to project into the Pacific and the Atlantic.
    1:42:24 You’ve got mostly English and Spanish speaking people
    1:42:25 safer Brazil with Portuguese.
    1:42:27 You’ve got a ton of resources,
    1:42:30 a ton of brilliant educated doctors and whatnot.
    1:42:31 And I would just shore up this hemisphere,
    1:42:33 particularly against a crink,
    1:42:34 you know, China, Russia, Iran, North Korea
    1:42:36 and their influence.
    1:42:38 If we were worried about like Cuba
    1:42:39 and the Cuba missile crisis
    1:42:43 and things proximate 90 miles or what from Florida,
    1:42:47 I think that China is doing very smart strategic things.
    1:42:48 So us going back in and saying,
    1:42:52 we’re gonna reclaim the Panama Canal and our influence on it,
    1:42:55 like forgetting about provocations of Mexico,
    1:42:58 of like the Gulf of America versus Gulf of Mexico.
    1:43:00 But I think that having influence in that region
    1:43:01 is really important.
    1:43:03 So those would be the two things as sect F or sect state
    1:43:06 that I would do is declare a hemispheric hegemony
    1:43:07 and make sure that we shore up our allies in the region
    1:43:10 and get out our adversaries and their presence in part
    1:43:11 because there’s so much commerce
    1:43:13 and money and infrastructure that’s going in
    1:43:15 and then focus on the Sahel and Maghreb in Africa.
    1:43:18 For country competition, brain drain,
    1:43:19 you want the best and the brightest.
    1:43:21 You need to fund basic research and basic science.
    1:43:22 It should be undirected.
    1:43:24 That’s the serendipity and the randomness
    1:43:26 and the optionality that leads to great breakthroughs.
    1:43:29 You want capital markets to be these low entropy carriers
    1:43:32 for high entropy entrepreneurial surprise.
    1:43:35 So predictable rules and regulations.
    1:43:37 I would lower, I don’t know why we don’t have a flat tax.
    1:43:38 I mean, I know why we don’t,
    1:43:42 but I would just have a flat tax, make it super simple.
    1:43:43 Rich people are gonna scout around
    1:43:45 and figure out how to get around the tax system anyway
    1:43:47 and poor people are burdened by it.
    1:43:49 I get progressive versus regressive,
    1:43:53 but I would just simplify our tax scheme massively.
    1:43:55 Anybody that is coming here
    1:43:56 and getting an education in this country,
    1:43:58 I would staple a visa as long as they stay here,
    1:44:01 work for American company for at least five years,
    1:44:03 let them become, we want the best and the brightest here.
    1:44:06 We are, as an example again,
    1:44:07 and I don’t mean to make this like all China,
    1:44:09 but they are our most dominant adversary,
    1:44:13 50% of all AI undergrads in the world today
    1:44:15 are being graduated by China.
    1:44:17 In our own country in the United States,
    1:44:22 38% of researchers in AI are from China.
    1:44:24 So we’re outnumbered even domestically, it’s a big deal.
    1:44:27 And we used to attract something like 23%
    1:44:31 of all foreign graduates here, that’s down to 15%.
    1:44:32 People are either going to other countries
    1:44:33 or staying in their own country.
    1:44:37 And so we need that, that’s what won us World War II.
    1:44:40 You know, if Einstein would have stayed in Germany or…
    1:44:43 – What causes that to happen is that the tax rate,
    1:44:45 is it opportunities available?
    1:44:46 Is it housing costs?
    1:44:49 Like what are the factors that go into people leaving?
    1:44:51 – Well, start with the attracting part.
    1:44:53 You know, as Walter Riston said,
    1:44:54 people go where they’re welcome
    1:44:56 and stay where they’re well treated.
    1:44:58 So we should be welcoming.
    1:44:59 Now there’s a debate about immigration
    1:45:03 and we should distinguish between the bad people
    1:45:05 and like brilliant people and we should want them here.
    1:45:08 – That just comes down to like basic batting.
    1:45:10 – Right, but you know, some of that is exploited.
    1:45:13 You know, a lot of these consultants with Wipro
    1:45:16 and some of the Indian business processes,
    1:45:20 BPO is the business processes operations, or outsourcing.
    1:45:23 Housing is a difficult one, but people can always figure out,
    1:45:24 New York City is expensive,
    1:45:26 but you can live in Long Island City
    1:45:27 and Brooklyn and Queens.
    1:45:33 But I think, yeah, housing availability,
    1:45:35 we have, I mean, our cities are so rich
    1:45:36 and filled with culture and people.
    1:45:37 And particularly if you’re a young person,
    1:45:39 you want to be around the density of that
    1:45:41 because you’re trying to find peers and a mate
    1:45:44 and all of that, even if you’re from another country,
    1:45:45 you go to New York, you can find your enclave
    1:45:48 of Korean or Chinese or Russian or Ukrainian
    1:45:52 or Israeli and Caribbean, it’s all here.
    1:45:54 So, yeah, I think just having a culture
    1:45:57 that embraces this and encourages it,
    1:45:59 you already have a robust venture capital system
    1:46:00 of risk taking, many other countries don’t have that.
    1:46:02 So that’s another thing.
    1:46:05 But if you were to design the system from scratch,
    1:46:08 you want openness with security.
    1:46:10 So some means of vetting.
    1:46:12 You want a great education system that can attract people
    1:46:15 that view it as a status to have graduated
    1:46:17 from that particular school.
    1:46:18 And people want to be around people,
    1:46:20 whether this is in a company or in a country
    1:46:21 that are like them, that are competitive
    1:46:24 and highly intellectual, that they respect or admire,
    1:46:25 want to compete with.
    1:46:26 So that’s number two.
    1:46:29 Their work, something that we did in the 1980s,
    1:46:31 I think it was in 1980 was the Bidol Act,
    1:46:33 where government funding for research
    1:46:36 would allow the university and the principal investigator
    1:46:38 to actually own the intellectual property
    1:46:39 that became an asset.
    1:46:42 That asset could be licensed to a company.
    1:46:45 It absolutely opened the floodgates for venture capital
    1:46:46 to be able to commercialize that.
    1:46:49 That happened to coincide with Orissa
    1:46:52 and allowing retirement plans to go into venture capital.
    1:46:54 So now you have a pool of risk capital,
    1:46:58 which you need for taking risk on unseasoned people
    1:46:59 and unseasoned companies.
    1:47:02 And then you need a robust capital market system
    1:47:04 to be able to continue to allocate money.
    1:47:05 But again, capital goes where it’s welcome,
    1:47:06 stays where it’s well treated,
    1:47:09 true of human capital, true of financial capital.
    1:47:12 And so a rules-based system, a strong military,
    1:47:13 if you were starting a country from scratch,
    1:47:14 you’re not gonna have that.
    1:47:17 But you need great allies then, think about Singapore.
    1:47:19 Yeah, I think that’s a phenomenal model.
    1:47:20 Singapore is a great model.
    1:47:21 – That’s awesome.
    1:47:23 I hope some of the government people we have
    1:47:25 are listening to this.
    1:47:27 I wanna come to IP for a second and copyright
    1:47:29 and then wrap it up here.
    1:47:33 So do you think that AI should be able to create IP
    1:47:34 or copyrighted material?
    1:47:36 Like if I tell AI to write a book,
    1:47:38 is should that be copyrightable?
    1:47:41 And who owns the copyright, the AI or me for the prompt?
    1:47:44 – It’s super complicated because the first debate
    1:47:45 about this, which is the great irony, right?
    1:47:48 Because open AI investors and stakeholders were up in arms
    1:47:50 that are one stole from open AI.
    1:47:51 But you can make the argument that open AI
    1:47:53 is trained on the repository of like the public internet
    1:47:56 and every art that’s ever been produced and whatnot.
    1:47:59 Now, if you were an art student and you went to the Louvre
    1:48:03 or to the Met or to MoMA and you sat there and studied it
    1:48:04 or took a picture of it.
    1:48:07 And then we learned through copying.
    1:48:09 We learned through symmetry and imitation
    1:48:11 and we remixed these things.
    1:48:14 And there’s this great, what is his name?
    1:48:17 Kirby who did everything as a remix.
    1:48:18 I just sent it to a friend,
    1:48:20 but it was like updated last year.
    1:48:24 And it’s so brilliant in its compilation
    1:48:29 of every facet of culture that you love from books
    1:48:33 to your Tarantino movie, to the Beatles, to art,
    1:48:34 to scenes and movies.
    1:48:37 Like it was all copied from something, you know?
    1:48:40 And you’re like, wait a second.
    1:48:42 That riff came from this 1940 song
    1:48:44 from this African American blues guitarist
    1:48:47 that John Leonard or Paul McCartney stole.
    1:48:50 And you’re like, and so everything was sort of stolen
    1:48:52 from somebody.
    1:48:54 It was imitated, tweaked slightly.
    1:48:56 And by the way, that’s what we are, right?
    1:48:58 I mean, you get two people who exist.
    1:49:00 And then there’s this genetic recombination
    1:49:02 of their source material.
    1:49:03 And every one of my kids are different,
    1:49:04 but they came from the,
    1:49:09 and so remixing is like how everything happens.
    1:49:12 And it’s like Matt Ridley said, ideas having sex.
    1:49:15 And so to your core question, yes,
    1:49:18 I think that if I do a calculation
    1:49:20 and I’m using a calculator instead of like
    1:49:22 doing math by pencil,
    1:49:25 that calculation is still an input into my output.
    1:49:29 If I’m using AI to generate art
    1:49:33 and it’s my prompt instead of the gesture of my brush
    1:49:35 and the strokes of my hand,
    1:49:37 then I think it should still be mine.
    1:49:41 Even if it was trained like a great art student was
    1:49:44 by staring and learning and studying and then emulating.
    1:49:45 And then these things evolve.
    1:49:47 You look at Picasso through all the different phases
    1:49:49 of his style of art,
    1:49:54 from like realism and portraiture to cubism and abstract.
    1:49:57 These things are just evolved until you find the white space
    1:49:59 that defines you.
    1:50:01 And that goes back to like,
    1:50:03 if I train all my AI and everything I’ve ever wrote,
    1:50:06 but then like my voice is,
    1:50:08 a new voice is rare and hard to create.
    1:50:13 So I actually think we should probably worry more about
    1:50:16 how do you break free from this constraints of these things?
    1:50:20 Then, should they be copyrightable?
    1:50:22 – Well, that goes back to our earlier conversation.
    1:50:24 Do we just end up in this lane that we can’t get out of?
    1:50:26 Or we don’t even recognize we’re in a lane, I guess.
    1:50:27 – Right.
    1:50:29 – In some ways, even more devastating.
    1:50:31 – And the brilliance of all of this, again,
    1:50:33 like I’m a big believer that we make our fictions
    1:50:35 and our fictions make us.
    1:50:37 And if you’ve watched Westworld,
    1:50:38 I don’t know if you’ve-
    1:50:40 – Watched an episode or two, yeah.
    1:50:41 – The first episode, you know,
    1:50:44 you have a guest who comes to the park
    1:50:46 and he’s sort of squinty-eyed looking at the host
    1:50:48 who’s actual robot that you learn later on,
    1:50:50 but he doesn’t know at the time.
    1:50:52 And he’s like looking at her and she goes,
    1:50:53 you want to ask, so ask.
    1:50:55 And she knew what he was going to ask her.
    1:50:56 And he goes, are you real?
    1:50:57 – Yeah.
    1:51:00 – And she goes, well, if you have to ask, does it matter?
    1:51:03 And, you know, I’m going to sort of spoiler alert
    1:51:04 on Westworld.
    1:51:08 It’s all about these hosts interacting with the guests
    1:51:10 and they’re there to serve the guests.
    1:51:12 But in fact, it’s the opposite
    1:51:14 because every host is watching and learning
    1:51:17 every small nuance, every gesture,
    1:51:18 every inflection of your voice,
    1:51:21 every cadence of your speech.
    1:51:24 And it’s learning you so that it can basically create
    1:51:25 a perfect simulacrum of you
    1:51:28 and 3D print biologically, a version of you.
    1:51:32 And so it’s a really profound philosophical question
    1:51:34 about how we’re interacting with these things.
    1:51:37 But all these things have been trained
    1:51:41 on the sum total of all human creation.
    1:51:42 And now they’re being trained
    1:51:43 on the sum total of human creation
    1:51:45 plus artificial creation.
    1:51:47 And some of that is done with human prompts
    1:51:49 and some of it is going to be done automatically.
    1:51:50 But I just think it’s going to be part
    1:51:54 of the total overture of creation.
    1:51:56 And I think it’s a beautiful thing.
    1:51:59 So does anything about this scare you?
    1:52:02 About AI, like the direction we’re heading?
    1:52:06 I think in the near term, the thing that scared me
    1:52:10 is what again, scarcity and abundance,
    1:52:13 what becomes abundant is people’s ability
    1:52:14 to use AI to produce content.
    1:52:17 And I don’t know if I’m getting an email from somebody.
    1:52:20 Did an AI ride it or optimize it
    1:52:23 or was it really a thoughtful note from John?
    1:52:26 This young college student who’s persistent,
    1:52:28 was it really them?
    1:52:31 And can I infer something about their persistence
    1:52:32 and their style of writing?
    1:52:34 Or did they put it into an AI and know
    1:52:37 from the repository of what influences me
    1:52:39 and what I’ve talked about and what I care about
    1:52:40 that they, you know, so many people are like,
    1:52:41 oh, I heard you on this podcast
    1:52:43 and I felt compelled to write you
    1:52:46 because I too care deeply about family
    1:52:46 and you know, blah, blah, blah, right?
    1:52:48 I mean, those are surface level stuff
    1:52:51 but somebody that’s more nuanced about it.
    1:52:53 Am I being manipulated by them or by the AI?
    1:52:55 And if it’s them, there’s a cleverness to it
    1:52:56 that I might admire.
    1:52:59 If it’s just the AI, I feel suddenly more vulnerable.
    1:53:02 So what becomes abundant is the sort of,
    1:53:04 not just information, misinformation or whatever
    1:53:05 but the production of it,
    1:53:08 what becomes scarce is veracity and truth.
    1:53:13 And that to me was less scary
    1:53:16 but more you need to be inoculated
    1:53:18 and immunized, vaccinated
    1:53:19 and you’re almost going to become
    1:53:21 a little bit more distrusting
    1:53:24 but like your reactions right now,
    1:53:25 I might say something and you might say,
    1:53:28 oh, and maybe you actually thought it was profound
    1:53:30 or maybe you’re like, this is not interesting at all
    1:53:32 but there’s something authentic, right?
    1:53:35 About this and we are reading each other
    1:53:36 and reacting to each other.
    1:53:38 That to me is going to become ever more valuable.
    1:53:43 So our humanity, the interactions are the scarce thing.
    1:53:48 Even if and as through other mediums, it’s hard to tell.
    1:53:50 I love that.
    1:53:51 I always love talking to you too.
    1:53:55 So I get so much energy and ideas out of our conversations
    1:53:56 and I’ll be chewing on this for weeks.
    1:53:59 I know we always end with, what is success for you?
    1:54:00 You’ve answered this before,
    1:54:02 I’m curious to see how it changes.
    1:54:05 It really is the eyes of my kids.
    1:54:07 It is for me, them saying my dad did that
    1:54:10 or my dad made that or my dad was present for me.
    1:54:13 And I think it’s the story I tell myself
    1:54:16 about my own life and my relationship with my father
    1:54:17 and wanting to invert that.
    1:54:22 And so for me, success is like them saying I’m proud.
    1:54:24 He was my dad, he was a great father
    1:54:26 and I’m proud that he does all these things.
    1:54:30 And when we find a company or like some of these secrets
    1:54:33 that I talked about, I share them with my kids.
    1:54:35 And so I was taking my middle daughter
    1:54:37 to my oldest place tennis, my middle does soccer.
    1:54:40 My little guy plays basketball like 10 days a week.
    1:54:42 He’s better at nine years old than I was at 19
    1:54:44 and I was reasonably good.
    1:54:47 And I like sharing these stories.
    1:54:49 So I’m like, you know, next week there’s a story
    1:54:52 that’s gonna come out about this particular thing.
    1:54:55 And nobody knows about it except the company and now you.
    1:54:57 And they’re like, oh my God, really?
    1:54:58 And I’m like, yeah.
    1:54:59 And like, you can’t tell anybody, you know?
    1:55:01 And I just, I love that feeling.
    1:55:02 – That’s awesome.
    1:55:03 – And I do it in part.
    1:55:05 Not because I want them to learn about it,
    1:55:06 but I want them to be proud of me
    1:55:09 as selfish and Vainglorious as that is.
    1:55:11 And to be like, oh, my dad’s cool, you know?
    1:55:12 So that’s a success.
    1:55:13 – I think you’re cool.
    1:55:15 You’re not my dad, but man.
    1:55:17 – I’ll tell you, my 15-year-old daughter
    1:55:19 definitively does not think I’m cool.
    1:55:21 She says, you are so cringe.
    1:55:24 – And I think everybody’s kids say that, right?
    1:55:25 It’s the same with my kids.
    1:55:26 Like, instead of telling them something,
    1:55:28 all sometimes they might be listening to this,
    1:55:31 but I’ll get my friends to tell them.
    1:55:32 And then all of a sudden it holds weight.
    1:55:35 But if I tell them the same thing, like, yeah, whatever.
    1:55:37 – Same thing with our spouses and that, yeah.
    1:55:38 – Thank you very much.
    1:55:40 – She ain’t always great to do with you.
    1:55:43 I admire what you’ve built and the repository
    1:55:46 and compendium of the ideas and the minds
    1:55:46 that you’ve assembled.
    1:55:48 It’s like a great thing for the world.
    1:55:49 Thank you.
    1:55:50 – Thank you.
    1:55:52 Thank you for listening and learning with me.
    1:55:54 If you’ve enjoyed this episode,
    1:55:56 consider leaving a five-star rating or review.
    1:55:58 It’s a small action on your part
    1:56:00 that helps us reach more curious minds.
    1:56:03 You can stay connected with Furnham Street on social media
    1:56:06 and explore more insights at fs.blog,
    1:56:08 where you’ll find past episodes,
    1:56:11 our mental models, and thought-provoking articles.
    1:56:13 While you’re there, check out my book, “Clear Thinking.”
    1:56:16 Through engaging stories and actionable mental models,
    1:56:20 it helps you bridge the gap between intention and action.
    1:56:24 So your best decisions become your default decisions.
    1:56:25 Until next time.
    1:56:27 you
    1:56:29 you

    While Silicon Valley chases unicorns, Josh Wolfe hunts for something far more elusive: scientific breakthroughs that could change civilization. As co-founder and managing partner of Lux Capital, he’s looking for the kind of science that turns impossible into inevitable. Josh doesn’t just invest in the future—he sees it coming before almost anyone else. 

     

    In this conversation, we explore: 

    • The rapid evolution of AI and potential bottlenecks slowing its growth 
    • The geopolitical battle for technological dominance and rise of sovereign AI models 
    • How advances in automation, robotics, and defence are shifting global power dynamics 
    • Josh’s unfiltered thoughts on Tesla and Elon Musk 
    • AI’s revolution of medical research 
    • Parenting in a tech-dominated world 
    • How AI is forcing us to rethink creativity, intellectual property, and human intelligence itself 
    • Why the greatest risk isn’t AI itself—but our ability to separate truth from noise 

     

    Despite the challenges ahead, Josh remains profoundly optimistic about human potential. He believes technology isn’t replacing what makes us human—it’s amplifying it. This episode will challenge how you think about innovation, risk, and the forces shaping our future. If you want to stay ahead of the curve, you can’t afford to miss it. 

     

    Josh Wolfe co-founded Lux Capital to support scientists and entrepreneurs who pursue counter-conventional solutions to the most vexing puzzles of our time. He previously worked in investment banking at Salomon Smith Barney and in capital markets at Merrill Lynch. Josh is a columnist with Forbes and Editor for the Forbes/Wolfe Emerging Tech Report. 

    (00:00:00) Introduction

    (00:01:42) Interview with Josh Wolfe

    (00:02:46) Current Obsessions

    (00:05:11) AI and its Limitations

    (00:10:58) Memory Players in AI

    (00:13:27) Human Intelligence as a Limiting Factor

    (00:15:38) Disruption in Elite Professions

    (00:17:15) AI and Blue-Collar Jobs

    (00:18:29) Implications of AI in Coding

    (00:19:40) AI and Company Margins

    (00:25:48) AI in Pharma

    (00:26:44) AI in Entertainment

    (00:28:04) AI in Scientific Research

    (00:30:24) AI in Scientific Research

    (00:33:31) AI in Patent Creation

    (00:34:49) AI in Company Creation

    (00:35:33) Discussion on Tesla and Elon Musk

    (00:40:54) AI in Investment Decisions

    (00:42:20) AI in Analyzing Business Fundamentals

    (00:45:27) AI, Privacy, and Information Gods

    (00:53:04) AI and Art

    (00:56:43) AI and Human Connection

    (00:58:22) AI, Aging, and Memory

    (01:00:46) The Impact of Remote Work on Social Dynamics

    (01:03:18) The Role of Community and Belonging

    (01:05:44) The Pursuit of Longevity

    (01:11:58) The Importance of Family and Purpose

    (01:14:18) Information Processing and Workflow

    (01:23:00) AI and Personal Style

    (01:26:03) Investment in Military Technology

    (01:28:09) Global Conflict and Military Deterrence

    (01:31:28) Information Warfare

    (01:32:32) Infiltration and Weaponization of Systems

    (01:37:06) Infrastructure Maintenance and Growth

    (01:38:27) DOGE Initiative

    (01:40:09) Attracting Capital and Global Competitiveness

    (01:43:16) Attracting Talent and Immigration

    (01:45:42) Designing a System from Scratch

    (01:47:30) AI and Intellectual Property

    (01:51:56) The Fear of AI

    (01:53:57) Defining Success

    (01:55:38) Closing Remarks

     

    Newsletter – The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at fs.blog/newsletter

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  • #216 Outliers: Andrew Mellon – America’s Secret Banker

    AI transcript
    0:00:04 I suppose I’m what they call a rich man. They tell me so.
    0:00:07 I’m not particularly conscious of it. I don’t use money for myself.
    0:00:13 I don’t spend much on myself. I have always just worked. Done what needed to be done in business.
    0:00:17 I didn’t try to make money especially. I’m not interested in money.
    0:00:38 Welcome to The Knowledge Project. I’m your host, Shane Parrish.
    0:00:44 This podcast helps you master the best of what other people have already figured out.
    0:00:49 If you want to take your learning to the next level, consider joining our membership program
    0:00:56 at fs.blog/membership. As a member, you’ll get my personal reflections at the end of every episode,
    0:01:02 early access to episodes, no ads including this, exclusive content, hand edited transcripts,
    0:01:05 and so much more. Check out the link in the show notes for more.
    0:01:11 This episode is part of our new series, Lessons from Outliers, where we study extraordinary
    0:01:15 people to extract timeless principles about business, leadership, and life.
    0:01:20 Today’s episode is on Andrew Mellon, the wealthiest member of America’s cabinet
    0:01:26 built his fortune by staying invisible. While Carnegie and Rockefeller dominated headlines
    0:01:32 and built empires of steel and oil, Andrew Mellon created something far more powerful,
    0:01:37 a system for spotting opportunities that others missed and overlooked, and turning
    0:01:43 promising ventures into industrial giants. His secret? Staying in the shadows.
    0:01:49 The Mellon system transformed American industry. Identified promising ventures provide capital
    0:01:55 at precisely the right moment and integrate them into a growing ecosystem of mutually
    0:02:01 reinforcing businesses. This deceptively simple approach created industrial giants like Alcoa,
    0:02:07 Gulf Oil, and Coppers, companies that still shape American industry today. More importantly,
    0:02:11 his systematic approach to spotting and seizing opportunities
    0:02:17 offers a blueprint we can apply to our own ventures. It’s time to listen and learn.
    0:02:24 This podcast is for entertainment and informational purposes only,
    0:02:26 and you should do all of your own research.
    0:02:32 Don hadn’t yet broken over Washington, D.C. when Andrew Mellon first walked into
    0:02:39 the Treasury building on March 5, 1921. At age 65, when most men were settling into retirement,
    0:02:44 America’s most successful and visible billionaire, at least in today’s terms,
    0:02:50 stepped into one of the most public roles possible, Secretary of the United States Treasury.
    0:02:55 On the surface, it seemed like a bizarre choice. How could someone who’d spent decades amassing
    0:03:01 a fortune while avoiding attention succeed in one of the most public roles in government?
    0:03:06 But Mellon’s story suggests something counterintuitive. There’s immense power in silence and standing
    0:03:11 apart and observing while others shout. One of my good friends, Peter Kaufman,
    0:03:16 has a saying that I think about often. He says, “The whale that surfaces gets harpooned.”
    0:03:20 There’s a lot of wisdom in this statement. It means staying out of the headlines. It means
    0:03:26 moving in silence. It means not bragging. It means not trying to be seen. It means not chasing
    0:03:32 attention. Mellon lived his life in a way not to surface. In fact, he built a fortune in silence.
    0:03:38 Even at his home in Pittsburgh, Mellon was a ghost. Dinner guests would watch him sit silently
    0:03:41 at the head of the table, lost in thought, barely touching his food,
    0:03:47 rarely speaking, almost never laughing. He turned that silence, however, into a superpower,
    0:03:52 his natural introversion into a weapon of wealth creation. Those who knew him as a
    0:03:59 young man painted a strange pitcher. Solitary, but not Mellon-colly. Seclusive, but not moody.
    0:04:05 Achieving, but never boasting. Timid, but not fearful. Silent, but never stupid.
    0:04:11 But to understand how this ghost of Pittsburgh built one of America’s great fortunes while
    0:04:17 barely raising his voice above a whisper, we need to start with his father, Thomas Mellon,
    0:04:23 and the distinctive world of 19th century Pittsburgh. Part one, The Judge’s Son.
    0:04:32 Most great American fortunes of the 1800s were built by bold risk takers, charismatic empire
    0:04:37 builders, but the Mellons were different. They moved with the patience of farmers watching crops
    0:04:43 grow, which makes sense because that’s exactly where they started. In 1823, a nine-year-old
    0:04:49 farm boy set out at dawn to walk 21 miles to Pittsburgh. His family’s farm was on poverty
    0:04:55 point, a name that said everything about their circumstances. That boy was Thomas Mellon,
    0:05:01 and what he saw that day would transform not just his life, but American financial history.
    0:05:07 The local farmer walking beside young Thomas Mellon made a prediction. The boy would see more
    0:05:13 in that single day in Pittsburgh than in a lifetime back on the farm, and he was right,
    0:05:18 but not in the way he imagined. What caught Thomas’s eye wasn’t the roaring factories
    0:05:25 or bustling streets. Instead, he found himself transfixed by a vast estate overlooking the city,
    0:05:33 1500 acres with a mansion that seemed to command Pittsburgh itself. The whole scene he would later
    0:05:40 write impressed me with an idea of wealth and magnificence. I had before no conception of it.
    0:05:47 Suddenly, everything was possible. Silently, he asked himself whether I might not one day attain
    0:05:52 such wealth, and the answer to that question would launch a multi-generational journey from
    0:05:58 farming on poverty point to one of the richest and most powerful families in America.
    0:06:04 While most great American fortunes of the era were built by bold gamblers and charismatic
    0:06:10 empire builders, the Mellons took a different approach. Thomas, and later his son Andrew,
    0:06:16 would build their dynasty the way they learned to grow crops by planting carefully, watching
    0:06:20 patiently, and waiting for the harvest. They understood something that modern investors like
    0:06:26 Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger would later teach so simply. The big money isn’t in the buying
    0:06:32 or the selling, it’s in the waiting. The Mellons had discovered this truth decades earlier,
    0:06:36 quietly building their empire while others chased quick riches.
    0:06:42 The farm boy who dreamed of mansions found his roadmap in an unlikely place,
    0:06:47 Benjamin Franklin’s autobiography. While other teenagers worked the field, 17-year-old Thomas
    0:06:53 Mellon was studying Franklin’s story as if it were a manual for success. This wasn’t just
    0:06:58 inspiration, it was instruction. And it’s worth pointing out that Thomas Mellon isn’t the only
    0:07:04 one who found this book and loved it. Charlie Munger also had a similar experience with Ben
    0:07:09 Franklin’s autobiography. Franklin’s influence on Thomas Mellon would prove so profound that
    0:07:15 decades later, when establishing his bank in Pittsburgh, he placed Franklin’s statue above
    0:07:21 the entrance. It wasn’t decoration, it was a bronze reminder of the principles that guided him.
    0:07:26 The autobiography became his secular gospel, one that he would later preach
    0:07:33 relentlessly to his sons, none more so than Andrew. Thanks in large part to Ben Franklin’s book,
    0:07:39 Thomas saw education as a way out of farming and poverty point. Not everyone agreed. Against
    0:07:45 his father’s wishes but supported by his mother and uncle, Thomas set out to pursue what he saw
    0:07:52 as the essential trinity of success, knowledge, wealth, and distinction. When choosing a college,
    0:07:57 he rejected the popular Jefferson College because its students lacked what he called
    0:08:03 earnestness of purpose. At Western University of Pennsylvania, he captured his emerging philosophy
    0:08:09 writing, “Money is to society what the element of fire is to matter, diffusing warmth and vigor
    0:08:15 through all of its parts.” This wasn’t just clever wordplay. Thomas was developing a theory
    0:08:21 of wealth in real time that would guide the Mellon Empire for generations. While other ambitious
    0:08:27 young men rushed into business, Thomas took a longer view. He chose law as his path into the
    0:08:34 business world, seeing it as Franklin had, not as an end in itself, but as a systematic way to
    0:08:40 understand how money moved through society. Though when he would later claim in the professions and
    0:08:46 business management certificates of either ability or learning are valueless, at the early stages,
    0:08:52 Thomas saw education as a tactical step, indeed the first such step toward his greater ambitions.
    0:08:59 While Pittsburgh’s other lawyers chased headlines and high-profile cases, Thomas Mellon took a
    0:09:04 different approach. He kept his fees reasonable, built fierce client loyalty, and stayed in the
    0:09:11 background. Dispising, display, and notoriety, Mellon preferred to make money quietly. Law became a
    0:09:16 means to spot opportunities in real estate, foreclosures, and property development. Every
    0:09:22 foreclosure case, every property dispute, every business deal that crossed his desk wasn’t just
    0:09:27 legal work. He was intelligent about where money was flowing in Pittsburgh’s booming economy.
    0:09:32 His law practice became an observation post, letting him spot opportunities others missed.
    0:09:37 While other lawyers collected fees, Thomas collected assets, real estate, stocks, stakes,
    0:09:43 and growing businesses. By age 29, this quiet approach had already made him relatively wealthy.
    0:09:49 But Thomas saw his law practice the way a chess player sees the opening moves of a game. It wasn’t
    0:09:54 just about winning quickly, it was about positioning for the real opportunities ahead. This pattern,
    0:10:00 using a profession to spot investment opportunities, would become a classic wealth-building strategy.
    0:10:04 A century later, Charlie Munger would follow the same path, practice law by day,
    0:10:08 but use that knowledge to build lasting wealth through investments. Both men understood that
    0:10:13 true wealth rarely comes from a salary, it comes from owning things that grow in value while you
    0:10:20 sleep. This systematic mindset extended every aspect of Thomas’ life, even marriage. Just as he’d
    0:10:25 approach education and career as systems to be mastered, he viewed matrimony through the same
    0:10:31 cold analytical lens. It wasn’t looking for passion and romance as much as a partner,
    0:10:37 evaluating potential wives with what he called an impartial assessment of their favorable and
    0:10:43 unfavorable qualities. He found his helpmate in Sarah Jane Negley. Her high status and connections
    0:10:49 expanded his network of opportunities even further. Over the next 16 years, the Mellons would have
    0:10:56 eight children, with Andrew arriving in 1855 as the sixth child and fourth son. From the beginning,
    0:11:00 Andrew stood apart. From his earliest days, he seemed to be his father’s son incarnate,
    0:11:06 showing an innate understanding of money and business that delighted Thomas. While other
    0:11:10 children played in Pittsburgh’s dirty streets, young Andrew Mellon was learning to count money.
    0:11:15 At an age when most kids were trading marbles, he was selling bundles of grass to passing farmers
    0:11:20 at five cents each. When that business proved successful, he recruited his brothers to sell
    0:11:25 produce from the family garden. That enterprise was so profitable and so successful that his
    0:11:30 mother sometimes had to buy back her own vegetables just to have something for dinner.
    0:11:35 This wasn’t normal childhood behavior, but the Mellon household was anything but normal.
    0:11:39 Thomas raised his children, according to philosopher Herbert Spencer’s maxim, that life
    0:11:45 was a struggle, which only the fittest survive. Outside their windows, Pittsburgh was transforming
    0:11:53 into hell with the lid taken off, 500 factories belching smoke into the sky, forging two-fifths
    0:11:59 of America’s iron. Thomas saw this industrial battlefield and determined his sons would be
    0:12:05 prepared. He built on their own schoolhouse, where poetry and fiction were banned as useless
    0:12:10 distraction. Only what’s necessary and useful in business was Thomas’s motto.
    0:12:16 The curriculum was ruthlessly practical, reading, writing, and arithmetic, nothing else.
    0:12:21 The studies Thomas later explained were such as would be most necessary and useful in the
    0:12:27 subsequent business of life. Years later, Thomas would express surprise that all of his sons
    0:12:33 spontaneously chose business careers as if he hadn’t engineered precisely that outcome.
    0:12:38 But Andrew’s path took an unexpected turn. When Andrew’s brother Selwyn died,
    0:12:43 something softened in Thomas’s iron philosophy. The judge closed his schoolhouse and enrolled
    0:12:48 Andrew in public school and began commuting with him on the way to school every day, which was by
    0:12:53 his office. Their daily commutes became kind of an apprenticeship. As one relative observed,
    0:12:58 Thomas spoke to Andrew not as a little boy, but as one with a mature intellect.
    0:13:03 These conversations, repeatedly daily walking through Pittsburgh’s smoky streets, transformed
    0:13:09 a father’s systematic approach to wealth into a son’s natural instinct. They weren’t just talks,
    0:13:16 they were downloading knowledge. If you know this sound, I have some good news for you.
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    0:13:48 TD, ready for you. Part two, building the system. When Judge Thomas Mellon’s eyesight began to fail,
    0:13:53 he turned even this setback into a teaching opportunity. He would pay his children 50
    0:13:59 cents for two to three hours of reading. Of course, not fairy tales or novels, but rather
    0:14:05 business reports, financial news, and economic theory. It was through this seemingly tedious task
    0:14:11 that Andrew gained unique access to his father’s intellectual life. The judge was, as biographer
    0:14:18 David Canada notes, “far from a passive audience.” This exact pattern, children reading business
    0:14:23 material to parents and learning to think critically through discussion, appears repeatedly in the
    0:14:28 stories of 19th century financial success. Hedy Green, who would go on to become America’s richest
    0:14:35 woman, developed her legendary financial acumen by reading market reports to her father and grandfather.
    0:14:41 In both cases, these weren’t just reading sessions, they were apprenticeships in analytical thinking.
    0:14:45 It’s a fascinating approach to learning. You’re not just absorbing information,
    0:14:50 you’re learning how to think about it, how to argue about it, how to engage with ideas critically,
    0:14:53 and with a person that you probably inherently trust and respect.
    0:15:00 As Thomas Millen’s influence on his children grew, he began laying the foundations for what would
    0:15:06 become the Mellon family’s financial empire through two key institutions. The first was
    0:15:12 East Liberty Savings and Deposit Bank. On the surface, a simple investment, but a machine for
    0:15:18 creating wealth. The East Liberty Savings and Deposit Bank looks simple from the outside,
    0:15:23 but it was actually the hub of an intricate system. The Mellons would vertically integrate
    0:15:29 everything. Here’s how author David Kashkoff described it. The Mellon boys subdivided acreage
    0:15:34 into homesites sold that are profit, sold their buyers lumber with which to construct their humble
    0:15:40 dwellings at a profit, financed the transactions through the bank profitably, and then sold the coal
    0:15:46 to heat the houses, again, at a profit. This interlocking system of businesses,
    0:15:51 all reinforcing one another, would become known later as the Mellon system once Andrew perfected
    0:15:57 it. The integration would give them unprecedented influence and advantage over competition.
    0:16:03 When Thomas opened his second bank, T. Mellon & Sons, he placed Ben Franklin’s statue above
    0:16:09 the door. The same mentor who had guided him from Farm Boy to Finance Year would now watch over his
    0:16:16 sons. Thomas approached banking with characteristic confidence. He said, “There is nothing in banking
    0:16:22 but what you ought to be able to learn in a week or two.” As to bank books, keeping them is the
    0:16:29 simplest of all kinds. He wasn’t alone in this optimism. Over 20 new banks opened in booming
    0:16:35 Pittsburgh during this period, which may explain why there were so many financial panics. Andrew
    0:16:40 proved to be a reliable study. Judge Mellon’s trust in young Andrew was so complete that at just
    0:16:47 19, Andrew became the only person beside his father with the bank’s safe combination. The 1860s
    0:16:52 proved remarkably fertile ground for the Mellon’s ambitions. Pittsburgh was transforming into the
    0:16:58 industrial capital of America. The nation’s railway network doubled, and Pittsburgh stood at
    0:17:06 the center of American industrial revolution. The city, near 300,000 residents producing half
    0:17:13 the nation’s glass and iron, while new industries sprouted like wildflowers, Heinz food processing,
    0:17:19 Westinghouse’s air brakes, and soon Carnegie’s revolutionary Bessemer steel process,
    0:17:27 which would help him create his own empire. Thomas called it an easy to grow rich decade,
    0:17:33 watching with satisfaction as his system worked exactly as designed. For the judge, though, the
    0:17:38 greatest satisfaction came not from the profits themselves, but from seeing his son succeed in
    0:17:46 the system that he had created. Yet this golden age wouldn’t last. In 1873, a financial hurricane
    0:17:52 in what came to be known at the time as the Great Depression swept from Europe to America,
    0:17:58 destroying nearly half of Pittsburgh’s banks and its path. Even the mighty Mellon banks
    0:18:03 barely survived. Thomas had to turn away desperate customers. Shaken and humbled,
    0:18:09 he closed the East Liberty Savings and Deposit Bank, and debated going out of the banking
    0:18:15 business entirely. The judge and Andrew learned something profound from the Panic of 1873,
    0:18:21 something that would shape not just their fortune, but a pattern repeated by history’s greatest
    0:18:27 wealth builders. They realized that financial storms don’t just destroy, they create opportunity.
    0:18:32 This goes back to one of the key lessons Thomas Mellon tried to instill in his children.
    0:18:39 Life is competition, and only the fittest survive. While most tried to simply survive
    0:18:43 panics, great fortunes were built by those who understood a crucial truth.
    0:18:49 Down turns are inevitable, and when they happen, only those positioned to take advantage of them
    0:18:57 can thrive. The Panic of 1873, like the Panics of 1857, 1884, and 1907 that would follow,
    0:19:03 wasn’t just a crisis. It was a chance to acquire valuable assets at fire sale prices. In an era
    0:19:09 where banks went out of business quickly, the Mellons always kept a surplus and never needed
    0:19:14 the kindness of strangers to survive. It got pretty close one time, but they survived,
    0:19:20 and it was never ever that close again. That’s more a testament to just how bad the downturn
    0:19:26 was than from them not having enough capital. Being well positioned to take advantage of
    0:19:31 opportunities continues to build great fortunes. When others retreated, when weak competition
    0:19:37 failed, when solid businesses were selling for pennies on the dollar, that’s when the prepared
    0:19:43 few expanded their empires. As John D. Rockefeller would later observe, the strong feed during
    0:19:51 depressions. You can think of the 2008 financial crisis and how Buffett was able to deploy billions
    0:19:57 of dollars with really high rates of returns in a matter of weeks. While everyone else was
    0:20:04 paralyzed, he provided liquidity, of course, at a price. You can’t predict when the next crisis
    0:20:10 will hit, you know there will be one. When it does, those who borrowed too much or expanded
    0:20:16 too fast fight for survival, will those who stayed strong and liquid pounce on opportunities.
    0:20:21 The Mellons understood this truth early. The goal isn’t just to be strong enough to survive
    0:20:27 the storm, it’s to be strong enough to capitalize on it. While others pray for endless summer,
    0:20:31 the wise prepare for winter, knowing that fortunes are built when the assets are cheap
    0:20:37 and competition is weak. This is really the idea behind positioning, and it, combined with patients,
    0:20:45 would really build and fuel the Mellon fortune. The panic of 1873 was Andrew Mellon’s first,
    0:20:51 but far from his last, and marked his true entry into banking. At 19, Andrew didn’t look like a
    0:20:58 banking titan in the making. He was thin-voiced, shy, and uncommunicative, but something remarkable
    0:21:03 was happening at T. Mellon and Sons. This quiet teenager was becoming the family’s center of
    0:21:10 gravity. He didn’t demand authority, he simply exercised it naturally. Soon, everyone from his
    0:21:16 father down was asking the same question. What would Andy think? While other Pittsburgh titans
    0:21:22 roared and dominated, like Carnegie and Steele or Frick and Cole, Andrew moved like a shadow
    0:21:28 through the financial world. His quietness wasn’t just personality, it was strategy. He moved in
    0:21:35 silence so as not to attract attention. He was building something different. Not a visible empire
    0:21:42 of smokestacks and railroads, but an invisible web of financial power. He began methodically
    0:21:49 acquiring local banks. Each piece carefully chosen to expand his reach. But his master’s
    0:21:56 stroke came in 1886 when he established just the second trust company in Pittsburgh. While regular
    0:22:01 banks faced tight restrictions, trust companies, on the other hand, could do almost anything.
    0:22:07 They could lend against real estate, deal in stocks and bonds, even act as venture capital firms of
    0:22:12 their day. Andrew ventured far beyond his father’s bread and butter of mortgages and real estate.
    0:22:18 By his early 30s, Andrew had built his family’s fortune to the modern equivalent of 50 million.
    0:22:25 But he was just getting started. His true genius would emerge late one day in 1889,
    0:22:30 when three men walked into tea melons and sands seeking a modest $4,000 loan,
    0:22:35 a moment that would transform not just the melons, but American industry itself.
    0:22:42 The three men who walked in that day were Captain Elford Hunt and MIT-trained metallurgist George
    0:22:49 Klopp, a young chemist, and Arthur Davis, fresh from Amherst College. Their company, named the
    0:22:55 Pittsburgh Reduction Company, had developed something revolutionary, a practical method of
    0:23:01 producing aluminum through electrolysis. It was a classic startup, a breakthrough technology,
    0:23:07 promising early results, but a desperate need for capital to expand. On paper, it looked incredibly
    0:23:14 risky. They were producing just 475 pounds of aluminum daily and selling it for about two
    0:23:20 dollars a pound. And they were struggling to convince anyone to abandon trusted metals like
    0:23:27 iron and copper for this expensive new material. But where others saw shabby accounts and a lot
    0:23:33 of problems, Andrew Mellon saw opportunity. Instead of just the $4,000 they requested,
    0:23:42 he offered them $25,000, more than six times what they asked for. Not just enough to clear the debts,
    0:23:47 it was enough to grow. It wasn’t just a loan, it was the beginning of a system.
    0:23:52 The Mellon approach was methodical. First, help the company move to New Kensington,
    0:23:58 where the Mellon-owned real estate provided room to grow. Then, engineer a crucial expansion to
    0:24:04 Niagara Falls, where cheap hydroelectric power could drive costs down. Lower costs meant lower
    0:24:11 prices and lower prices meant explosive growth. Within five years, the price of aluminum had
    0:24:20 dropped by 75% and sales had skyrocketed from a few hundred pounds to 600,000 pounds annually
    0:24:28 in 1895. This small company, the Pittsburgh Reduction Company, would later become Alcoa,
    0:24:33 still a $10 billion giant today. But more importantly, it revealed what would become
    0:24:37 known as the Mellon touch. The ability to spot not just promising technologies,
    0:24:44 but the right people to build them into empires. The Mellon system that emerged wasn’t just a
    0:24:49 collection of investments. It was a wealth-building machine that got smarter with every deal.
    0:24:55 While its foundations were simple, identified promising technologies, back exceptional operators,
    0:25:02 provide capital at crucial moments, its real power lay in flexibility. The Mellons didn’t have one
    0:25:07 playbook. They had many. With aluminum in the Pittsburgh Reduction Company, they were content
    0:25:14 being minority investors, taking about 12% while letting the founders run the show. But in oil,
    0:25:20 they seized majority control and installed family leadership. This flexibility made them one of
    0:25:26 the few who could ever successfully compete against John D. Rockefeller. When Standard Oil tried to
    0:25:31 squeeze them out by manipulating railroad rates and trying to block them at every turn,
    0:25:38 they didn’t fight directly. They simply built their own 271-mile pipeline to the coast.
    0:25:46 By 1894, they controlled 10% of America’s oil exports, prompting Andrew to confidently tell
    0:25:52 one associate, “We have every facility possessed by the Standard Oil Company and receive and deliver
    0:25:58 oil under as favorable conditions in every way.” Rockefeller would eventually buy them out. But
    0:26:02 not because the Mellons were weak, but because they were strong. They had built something he
    0:26:08 couldn’t crush into submission. This wasn’t just their father’s system anymore. Like Thomas Mellon,
    0:26:14 they believed in vertical integration and backing capable operators. But where the judge had stuck
    0:26:20 to familiar territory, coal, iron, and real estate, Andrew and Dick ventured into cutting-edge
    0:26:27 industries like hydroelectric power and aluminum manufacturing. As one historian noted, Andrew may
    0:26:32 habitually have asked, “What would father do?” But his answers wouldn’t always have convinced
    0:26:39 the judge. The system wasn’t perfect. In 1890, they missed a golden opportunity with George Westinghouse,
    0:26:45 who was demanding too much equity for a $500,000 loan. Westinghouse turned to New York Financers
    0:26:51 instead, a decision Andrew would later regret as he watched a major Pittsburgh industry slip away.
    0:26:58 But even failures fed the learning machine. By 1912, their banks controlled half of Pittsburgh’s
    0:27:03 banking resources. But more importantly, they built something that looked more like a modern
    0:27:09 venture capital firm than a traditional bank. Each new venture made their network stronger and
    0:27:14 their intelligence deeper. Every venture they backed, every operator they partnered with,
    0:27:19 didn’t just bring one opportunity, they brought access to entire networks of knowledge,
    0:27:24 relationships, and new opportunities. It was a system that learned from itself.
    0:27:30 Success breeds relationships. Relationships breed intelligence. Intelligence breeds opportunity
    0:27:36 and opportunity bred more success. The Mellons had created something rare in business history,
    0:27:43 a wealth-building machine that grew smarter and stronger with every deal decade after decade.
    0:27:49 At the core of the Mellon system was Andrew’s genius for invisibility. While living modestly in
    0:27:54 his parents’ house, he quietly built a network that included not just industrialists like Carnegie
    0:28:01 and Frick, but senators, judges, and future presidents. His power grew precisely because he
    0:28:06 seemed to want none of its trappings. In fact, he came off as a modest Pittsburgh businessman who
    0:28:12 still lived in his parents’ house. Reality was anything but that. The invisible influence let
    0:28:18 him solve one of the industrial age’s greatest challenges, how to scale human expertise.
    0:28:25 Mellon built a cadre of operators, tough, competent men who became his eyes and ears across
    0:28:31 industries. He would deploy them whenever and wherever opportunity arose, and they’d report
    0:28:37 back intelligence that led to even more opportunities. In an era before computers, it was a human
    0:28:42 algorithm for spotting and seizing opportunity with better information. But Mellon understood
    0:28:48 something profound. The system would only work if his operators got rich too. He wanted a real
    0:28:54 win-win. Real success he observed comes from making others successful. It wasn’t just philosophy,
    0:29:00 it was pragmatism. When Alfred Hall, who Mellon had backed in Pittsburgh Reduction Company, died
    0:29:07 worth $30 million, it wasn’t an accident. It was the system working as designed.
    0:29:12 This was Mellon’s real innovation. He didn’t need to master aluminum manufacturing or oil
    0:29:18 refining or pipeline construction. What he built instead was a machine that could identify talent,
    0:29:24 deploy capital, be a good partner, and maintain control without much direct investment,
    0:29:29 all while learning without drawing too much attention to himself. Like its creator,
    0:29:32 the system worked best when few could see how powerful it had become.
    0:29:39 The numbers tell the story of Mellon’s success. His companies regularly paid dividends of 20,
    0:29:46 30, even 100% annually. Golf Oil once declared a staggering 500% dividend,
    0:29:50 so large that it attracted the attention of the regulators.
    0:29:55 But the real genius wasn’t just in generating these returns, it was how Mellon recycled them.
    0:30:01 Each successful venture became fuel for the next, creating an ever-expanding web of opportunity.
    0:30:06 In this way, Andrew Mellon built something far more durable than just a company. He created a
    0:30:11 perpetual capital deployment machine, a system that could transform promising businesses into
    0:30:18 empires, quietly, methodically, and with remarkable consistency. While others were building individual
    0:30:25 enterprises, Mellon built a machine that fed companies. The blueprint Mellon created would
    0:30:29 later be refined by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger with Berkshire Hathaway. There’s a lot
    0:30:35 of parallels here. Both could spot opportunities others missed, deploy capital decisively when
    0:30:43 others needed it most, recognize, attract, and retain talent, and wait patiently for returns.
    0:30:48 Most importantly, both created companies that were really learning machines. Each acquisition
    0:30:53 gave them more and more information that made them smarter and smarter about the next opportunity.
    0:30:58 Even their philosophy of management was similar. Mellon’s observation that
    0:31:03 real success comes from making others successful could have come straight from Buffett’s annual
    0:31:10 letters. It’s reciprocation in action. Go positive, go first, and the world will do most of the work
    0:31:16 for you. Both Buffett and Mellon understood that a fundamental truth is that if you find exceptional
    0:31:22 operators, you pay them well, you give them autonomy, and you let the system just work its magic with
    0:31:28 patience. Andrew Mellon wielded influence from the shadows. Pennsylvania’s legislature was known as
    0:31:34 the best that money could buy, and Mellon saw this as simply efficient business, ensuring, for
    0:31:39 instance, that import duties protected his aluminum interests. He wanted policies that
    0:31:44 made businesses prosper, and he quietly funded politicians who shared that vision. His personal
    0:31:50 style reflected invisible power. In Pittsburgh, they said if you wanted $5,000, you saw Dick,
    0:31:57 but if you needed $25,000, you saw Andrew. Those who did would find a slight man in an expensive,
    0:32:04 yet understated suit. His blue eyes could be described either as dreamy or as sharp blue daggers,
    0:32:09 and they were always fixed on a balance sheet. His weapon of choice in these conversations was
    0:32:16 silence. While his brother Dick chatted easily, Andrew would sit, sphinx-like, breaking his
    0:32:22 silence only for a laser precise question. What makes you think so? Can this thing be owned?
    0:32:28 Whom have you done work for? Most people left his office disappointed. Some got a brief “Here’s
    0:32:32 the trouble with the whole scheme.” Others received detailed explanations of why their
    0:32:38 ventures would fail, but a select few heard the magic words “I may be able to help.” By 1907,
    0:32:45 the system Mellon had built was staggering in its reach. From his position at Union Trust Company,
    0:32:51 he held 41 corporate directureships, more than anyone else in Pittsburgh. His brother Dick held
    0:32:58 31, but these numbers only hinted at their true influence. Consider Gulf Oil. Its tankers were
    0:33:04 built by Mellon New York Shipbuilding Company, using steel from Mellon-controlled mills,
    0:33:09 all financed through Mellon banks, and insured by Mellon companies. At Alcoa, workers lived in
    0:33:17 houses financed by Mellon’s Union Trust, built on Mellon lots, heated by Mellon coal, lit by Mellon
    0:33:23 utilities. They rode to work on Mellon streetcars and deposited their paychecks in Mellon banks.
    0:33:30 What’s remarkable is how quickly this empire emerged from the shadows. In less than a decade
    0:33:36 after 1898, Mellon had transformed himself from a successful banker into something entirely new,
    0:33:42 an architect of industrial ecosystems. Having made crucial moves during the Depression of
    0:33:51 1893, took advantage of it. He rode this subsequent boom years with extraordinary precision. By 1907,
    0:33:57 the framework was complete. What remained was simply to let the system grow, each part strengthening
    0:34:08 and reinforcing the others. Part three, The Private Kingdom. The system that had built Mellon’s business
    0:34:15 empire met its match and matters of the heart. In 1900, at age 45, Andrew approached marriage the
    0:34:22 only way he knew how, coldly, as another strategic partnership to be carefully structured and managed.
    0:34:28 On paper, his marriage to 21-year-old Norma McMullen had all the hallmarks of a classic Mellon
    0:34:34 venture. It was carefully constructed, strategically sound, and had clear benefits for both parties.
    0:34:41 He, on one hand, brought wealth and stability. She, on the other, brought youth and vitality.
    0:34:46 To Andrew’s methodical mind, it was another example of identifying complementary strengths.
    0:34:52 Exactly the kind of thinking that had built his fortune. But Norma McMullen was not a business
    0:34:58 proposition to be optimized, and love is not cold and rational. She was raised in London
    0:35:04 Society, the daughter of a British brewing family. She found Pittsburgh suffocating.
    0:35:09 Her first glimpse of her new home prompted a horrified question. “We don’t get off here,
    0:35:15 do we?” “You don’t live here.” To her, Pittsburgh must have felt like exile. A grey
    0:35:21 industrial city dominated by what one observer called a dour, Philistine, insular male culture,
    0:35:28 where men like her husband made fortunes. The very qualities that made Mellon a financial genius,
    0:35:34 his reserve, his patience, his ability to wait silently while others revealed themselves,
    0:35:40 his cold, rational, emotionless approach to decisions, proved disastrous in marriage.
    0:35:46 While he orchestrated the quiet accumulation of power, Nora felt the walls closing in.
    0:35:52 She had married into what was becoming the most powerful financial ecosystem in western Pennsylvania,
    0:35:58 only to find herself starved of the one commodity Andrew Mellon couldn’t control. Joy.
    0:36:04 What followed was a collision between two forces. Mellon’s need for order and control,
    0:36:11 and Nora’s desperate grasp at vitality. The divorce was public and nasty. The details,
    0:36:18 her affairs, his retreats into work, the public scandals, matter less than what they reveal
    0:36:24 about the limits of pure rationality. He was a man who could orchestrate entire industries
    0:36:30 and bend the world to his will, but he couldn’t bridge the gap across his own dinner table.
    0:36:36 The divorce in 1913, like everything else in Mellon’s life, was handled with meticulous attention
    0:36:42 to detail. The settlement was one of the largest at his time. The timing was ironic, just as his
    0:36:48 business system was really reaching its apex of efficiency. His personal life demonstrated
    0:36:52 that not everything could be managed like a balance sheet or an income statement. You couldn’t
    0:36:58 integrate a marriage the same way that you could integrate an industry or a company. In the aftermath,
    0:37:04 Mellon retreated farther into his work, where the rules made sense, where the silence was an asset,
    0:37:10 not a liability. A conversation with Robert Kennedy Duncan, the scientist who would go on
    0:37:17 to help establish the Mellon Institute, captures the poignant reality of Mellon’s life. Duncan,
    0:37:23 Andrew asked one day, “Are you happy at home?” When Duncan confirmed that he was most happy,
    0:37:27 Mellon’s response was revealing, “Then you’re a far richer man than I am.”
    0:37:33 The divorce marked a turning point. While personal happiness eluded him,
    0:37:39 Mellon found a new challenge worthy of his methodical mind. Pittsburgh itself was reaching its
    0:37:46 limits. At age 60, while many of his wealthy peers had moved to New York, Mellon saw what others missed.
    0:37:51 The region’s traditional industries were plateauing, and its future growth would depend on
    0:37:58 something that had always fascinated him, the marriage of science and industry. He had witnessed
    0:38:06 firsthand how his most successful ventures like alcoa or carburandum and golf oil increasingly
    0:38:12 relied on what we would now call research and development. But true to his nature, Mellon
    0:38:18 didn’t rush in to solve this problem. He watched and he waited. The solution arrived in 1911 through
    0:38:24 an unlikely partnership with a Canadian professor named Robert Kennedy Duncan. Duncan approached
    0:38:30 Mellon with a radical idea—industrial fellowships that would bridge the gap between academic research
    0:38:36 and commercial application. He had tested this concept at the University of Kansas with projects
    0:38:42 ranging from extending the life of laundered fabric to finding new uses for waste buttermilk.
    0:38:48 In Duncan’s systematic approach to innovation, Mellon recognized something familiar—his own
    0:38:54 methodical style applied to scientific discovery. Following the same patient pattern that he’d
    0:39:00 used to build his business empire, Mellon started small—a wooden building and a two-year trial
    0:39:05 period. When early projects showed promise, including the conversion of petroleum to gasoline and
    0:39:11 tackling Pittsburgh’s chronic smoke pollution, Mellon and his brother Dick committed fully.
    0:39:20 By 1913, they had funded a permanent structure in brick and granite, pledging $325,000 for construction
    0:39:27 and $40,000 annually for maintenance. The Mellon Institute of Industrial Research
    0:39:33 wasn’t charity in any conventional sense. It was strategic investment in Pittsburgh’s future.
    0:39:40 Once again, Mellon’s patients had paid off. The institute would later merge with the Carnegie
    0:39:46 Institute of Technology to form Carnegie Mellon University, now one of the world’s premier
    0:39:52 research institutes. In characteristic silence, Mellon had orchestrated another masterpiece
    0:39:58 of systematic thinking. He had solved multiple problems at once, advancing American industrial
    0:40:04 research, securing Pittsburgh’s economic future, and creating a lasting memorial to his family’s
    0:40:11 interest in applied science. This same instinct for strategic opportunity would serve him exceptionally
    0:40:17 well as Europe descended into war in 1914. Months before the conflict, Mellon had quietly
    0:40:24 orchestrated what seemed like just another industrial investment, but it would prove to be a masterstroke.
    0:40:30 The story centered on coke, the high carbon fuel essential to steelmaking. For decades,
    0:40:36 Pittsburgh’s landscape had been dominated by dome-shaped beehive ovens. More than 50,000 of
    0:40:43 them belching toxic gases into the air as they converted coal into coke. It was cheap, dirty,
    0:40:50 and outdated. One of the many reasons Pittsburgh had earned its nickname hell with the lid taken off.
    0:40:54 Europe, particularly Germany, had moved on to something far more sophisticated,
    0:41:00 the byproduct method. The key player here was Heinrich Koppers, a German industrialist who had
    0:41:06 perfected his new approach and was working with the United States Steel to install 300 of these
    0:41:12 new ovens. Instead of wasting valuable gases, his ovens captured these byproducts, converting
    0:41:18 them into essential chemicals. The building blocks of modern industry and, as it would turn out,
    0:41:25 modern warfare. In 1913, while others saw just another industrial investment, Mellon saw the
    0:41:31 future. With his characteristic thoroughness, he consulted his network in the coal and steel
    0:41:38 industries, including Thomas Lynch of the Frick Coal Company and Henry Clay Frick himself, before
    0:41:46 committing $1 million for a 37.5% stake in Koppers American Company. Then he orchestrated
    0:41:52 his familiar pattern of integration. Within months, the H. Koppers Company relocated to Pittsburgh,
    0:41:57 established a fellowship at the New Mellon Institute, and began interweaving itself with
    0:42:02 the other Mellon companies. What looked like routine business development was actually preparation
    0:42:08 for a war that wouldn’t start for another year. Once again, Mellon’s patience and systematic
    0:42:14 thinking had positioned him well ahead of events. When World War I erupted in Europe, Mellon’s
    0:42:19 decades of patient positioning suddenly paid off with explosive force. What looked like a
    0:42:26 collection of separate businesses revealed itself as an interconnected empire perfectly positioned
    0:42:33 for wartime production. The conflict proved to be as much a battle of chemicals as men and steel,
    0:42:38 and Pittsburgh, thanks to Mellon’s foresight, was at the center of it all. The numbers tell the
    0:42:45 story. Elkoa’s pre-tax earnings nearly tripled from $8.9 million in 1915 to $25 million in 1916.
    0:42:54 Golf oil’s assets ballooned from $142 million to $254 million between 1917 and 1920.
    0:43:00 Even the cyclical coal business thrived, with the Pittsburgh Coal Company’s profits surging from
    0:43:08 $104 million to $160 million. At the heart of this empire, Mellon’s banks grew even faster.
    0:43:15 Union Trust became so profitable, it raised its quarterly dividend from 25% to 35% in 1916,
    0:43:22 on top of its traditional 6% Christmas bonus. By 1918, its assets matched those of all other
    0:43:28 Pittsburgh Trust companies combined. This was the most dominant institution in Pittsburgh.
    0:43:35 Mellon’s personal fortune exploded from $55 million in 1913 to $80 million by 1921,
    0:43:40 but these were merely book values. They really understated how much he was worth. His golf oil
    0:43:46 holdings alone were valued at $17.4 million on paper, but they were worth close to $100
    0:43:52 million at market prices. The true extent of his wealth was almost impossible to calculate,
    0:43:57 and that’s how he liked it. Contemporary estimates put his fortune at about $135 million
    0:44:03 or a billion or so in today’s money. The quiet banker from Pittsburgh had become one of America’s
    0:44:10 wealthiest men while barely raising his voice above a whisper. By late 1920 at age 65,
    0:44:15 Andrew Mellon had reached what should have been a natural stopping point. He had built a financial
    0:44:21 and industrial empire, amassed one of America’s great fortunes, and established a research
    0:44:26 institute that would transform American industry well beyond his own lifetime.
    0:44:31 Most men would have been content to retire to a life of quiet luxury,
    0:44:33 but Andrew Mellon wasn’t most men.
    0:44:44 In 1921, a nation exhausted by war and progressive reform sought normalcy.
    0:44:50 The Republicans led by Warren G. Harding swept back into power, promising exactly that,
    0:44:55 but their choice for Treasury Secretary would prove anything but normal.
    0:44:59 Mellon, who had emerged from his characteristic reserve to throw himself into the campaign,
    0:45:07 raised $400,000 from Pittsburgh alone and personally donated $56,000. He now faced an
    0:45:12 unexpected challenge. The very qualities that had made him successful in private, his silence,
    0:45:19 his patience, his ability to operate in the shadows, his cold, logical approach to things,
    0:45:25 suddenly made him irresistible as a public servant. Pennsylvania’s powerful senators,
    0:45:29 Penrose and Knox, saw in Mellon exactly what the administration needed.
    0:45:33 A financial genius who had built his fortune not through wall street manipulation,
    0:45:37 but through decades of patient observation and systematic thinking.
    0:45:43 Knox’s endorsement letter called him “the greatest constructive economist of his generation.”
    0:45:46 But Mellon, true to form, recoiled from the spotlight.
    0:45:49 “I could not contemplate taking the job,” he told associates.
    0:45:54 His diary from the period reads like a methodical list of reasons to decline.
    0:45:58 “I’m too old. There’s too many business conflicts. I’m too private. I don’t want the light.”
    0:46:01 Perhaps the most revealing was his worry about his daughter,
    0:46:04 Elza, becoming prey to Washington’s fortune hunters.
    0:46:09 Yet the forces pulling him toward Washington proved irresistible.
    0:46:14 Elza was eager for the move. Andrew’s life in Pittsburgh with his children scattered and his
    0:46:19 friends moving away or dying had grown lonely. When Knox called on late February 1st to say
    0:46:25 the Treasury position was his, Mellon’s diary recorded his characteristically understated response.
    0:46:29 “Tell him I am not sure that news is pleasing to me.”
    0:46:35 The United States Treasury that Andrew Mellon inherited looked remarkably like a troubled
    0:46:40 company in need of restructuring. The government’s debt had ballooned 20-fold
    0:46:46 during the war years, from $1.2 billion in 1916 to $25.5 billion by war’s end.
    0:46:51 The top marginal tax rate had soared from 15% to 77%.
    0:46:58 Most pressing was the $7.5 billion in short-term debt accumulated at rates up to 6%
    0:47:03 with some coming due in just a few years. Mellon approached the nation’s finances
    0:47:07 as he approached his business empire with systematic precision.
    0:47:12 His solution was pure banking elegance. Refinance the loans at lower rates,
    0:47:17 saving the Treasury $200 million annually while extending and staggering repayment terms from
    0:47:23 $23 to $28. It was the same methodical thinking that had built his fortune now applied to the
    0:47:29 nation’s balance sheet. The contrast with his cabinet peers was striking. His personal fortune
    0:47:34 exceeded that of all the entire cabinet combined. Herbert Hoover, the self-made secretary of
    0:47:40 commerce, was worth a mere $4 million compared to Mellon’s understated $100 million plus.
    0:47:45 But what truly set him apart wasn’t his wealth. It was his obsession with detail
    0:47:51 and an industrialist’s focus on relentless execution. The Treasury Department, he insisted,
    0:47:57 must be conducted on business principles and kept free at all times from detrimental influences.
    0:48:02 On his first day, Mellon demonstrated that his habits wouldn’t change with his title.
    0:48:07 Just as he had for decades in Pittsburgh, he arrived before everyone else. He knew the details
    0:48:12 better than anyone else. The ghost of Pittsburgh was about to reshape America’s financial
    0:48:18 architecture, and he would do it in only the way that he knew how, quietly, methodically,
    0:48:24 and with a relentless attention to detail. Here was a puzzle worthy of Andrew Mellon’s
    0:48:29 systematic mind. When tax rates rose too high, wealthy people didn’t simply pay more. They
    0:48:36 found creative ways to pay less. Most rich Americans were avoiding the 77% federal rate
    0:48:43 entirely by investing in tax-exempt state and municipal bonds. His solution revealed the same
    0:48:48 counterintuitive thinking that had built his fortune, lower the top rate to 25%.
    0:48:54 The logic was pure Mellon. If federal taxes dropped significantly, the wealthy would rationally move
    0:49:00 their money from low-yield tax-exempt securities into higher-returning industrial stocks.
    0:49:06 Just as he had learned in business, sometimes you have to lower prices to increase total revenue.
    0:49:10 This wasn’t about helping his fellow millionaires. It was about creating a system
    0:49:15 where they would choose to pay taxes rather than avoid them entirely. His approach carried
    0:49:21 all the hallmarks of his business career. It was methodical, pragmatic, and indifferent to
    0:49:27 public opinion. He insisted on taxing more lately incomes from wages and salaries than incomes
    0:49:33 from investments. Why? Because undincome was uncertain and limited in duration, sickness,
    0:49:40 or death destroys it, and old age diminishes it while investment income descends to errors.
    0:49:47 By 1927, his reforms meant most Americans paid no federal income tax at all.
    0:49:52 The tax reforms were not the only reforms. Mellon favored high tariffs as a way to
    0:49:58 stock the government coffers and shield domestic manufacturers from foreign competition.
    0:50:04 He also favored reduced government spending. The results validated his systematic approach.
    0:50:11 Though roaring 20s saw tax revenues remain stable or increase even as tax rates dropped,
    0:50:17 while federal debt shrank considerably. Critics argued that his policies favored the wealthy
    0:50:22 who received the largest rate reductions, but Mellon pointed to the data which said the rich
    0:50:26 actually paid a larger share of total income taxes because the lower rates encouraged
    0:50:33 honest reporting rather than tax avoidance. What fascinates me about this chapter in Mellon’s life
    0:50:37 is how perfectly it demonstrates his core strengths. Here was the wealthiest member of
    0:50:42 the cabinet proposing policies that would obviously bring him intense criticism from
    0:50:48 all sides. Yet, just as he had done in Pittsburgh, he treated public opinion as a relevant noise.
    0:50:53 In his mind, optics didn’t matter, only results did. The Treasury was just another
    0:50:58 enterprise to run efficiently, regardless of how it might look to have a millionaire advocating for
    0:51:04 tax cuts. For a man who had built his fortune through silence, Andrew Mellon now faced his
    0:51:10 greatest challenge. He had to talk. Imagine 40 impatient reporters crammed into a Treasury
    0:51:16 conference room while Mellon, avoiding eye contact, responds with “I don’t know. No man
    0:51:21 can answer that. This is a great deal I have to learn.” But listen to what he did after this.
    0:51:26 He handled this like he approached every other business problem. The press conferences
    0:51:31 had become an education to me he later observed. The newspaper men, they come in here and they
    0:51:35 ask me a lot of questions about things I know nothing about. And when they leave, I send for
    0:51:40 somebody who knows and find out all about them. And the next time they come, I know. Think about
    0:51:45 that approach compounded over a long life. That’s insane. He’s just a constant learning machine.
    0:51:50 It reminds me of Charlie Munger’s observation about people who go to bed every night a little
    0:51:56 wiser than when they grow up. We see this pattern in great minds like Munger and Buffett and
    0:52:02 guests that we’ve had on the show. This relentless drive to learn regardless of age or achievement.
    0:52:09 Always learning. Constantly. A little bit extra every day applied over a long life. Perhaps it’s
    0:52:15 not surprising that of all the presidents Mellon served under, Kelvin Coolridge provided his most
    0:52:21 natural ally. Both men were of few words. They often conversed entirely in pauses. They shared
    0:52:27 not just an aversion to ostentation, but a deep belief that systematic thinking could solve problems.
    0:52:32 Coolridge’s famous declaration that the business of America is business could have been written
    0:52:36 by Mellon himself. Part five, the fall.
    0:52:45 While Mellon was quietly restructuring the nation’s finances, a perfect storm of forces was
    0:52:50 transforming American society. The changes were so profound that they would reshape not just the
    0:52:56 economy, but the very fabric of American life. The foundations were laid by war and demographics.
    0:53:01 Soldiers returning from World War One started families, creating enormous pent-up demand for
    0:53:06 consumer goods. Meanwhile, Europe, devastated by conflict, turned to America for both
    0:53:11 manufacturer goods and capital. The result was an unprecedented economic opportunity,
    0:53:18 one that would be amplified by three massive waves of change. First came the technological
    0:53:23 revolution. Henry Ford’s assembly line completely transformed manufacturing, dramatically increasing
    0:53:29 productivity. The telephone and radio compressed time and space spreading information and speculation
    0:53:36 faster than ever. Second was the financial transformation. Banks and retailers began offering
    0:53:40 installment plans, making major purchases accessible to average Americans for the first
    0:53:46 time. Meanwhile, growing confidence led many Americans to invest in stocks, using easily
    0:53:52 available margin, creating both opportunity and risk. Finally, there was a profound social shift.
    0:53:58 Advertising and mass media exploded, encouraging a culture of consumerism. The continuing migration
    0:54:04 from rural areas to cities accelerated social change. The quiet, methodical world of Andrew
    0:54:09 Mellon’s Pittsburgh was giving way to something louder, faster, more dynamic, and potentially
    0:54:14 more dangerous. The government’s role in all of this, Mellon’s domain, was to reduce friction,
    0:54:20 lower taxes, increase tariffs, and generally stay out of the way. But as the roaring 20s gained
    0:54:26 momentum, a question lurked beneath the surface. Could a system built on such dramatic change
    0:54:32 maintain its stability forever? When Herbert Hoover won the presidency in 1928, the architect
    0:54:39 of America’s prosperity faced a fateful choice. Mellon, now 73, could have retired at his peak,
    0:54:45 acclaimed as the genius behind the roaring 20s. Instead, he chose to stay, a decision that would
    0:54:50 test whether his systematic approach could handle a system spinning out of control.
    0:54:56 By 1929, the banker’s careful eye saw what others missed. Growth was no longer driven.
    0:55:01 By the productive investment, he understood, but by the kind of speculation he always avoided.
    0:55:07 As a Federal Reserve Board member, he repeatedly voted to raise interest rates in order to curb
    0:55:13 the frenzy, but was consistently outvoted. His diary from this period reveals mounting
    0:55:19 frustration. “Meeting Federal Reserve Board,” he wrote in March, “I vote with Board,
    0:55:23 but state, I think, increase in the discount rate to be inevitable.” By May, he was openly
    0:55:29 criticizing the Board to President Hoover for their refusal to act and raise rates.
    0:55:34 True to his nature, Mellon tried to warn the public in his characteristically understated way.
    0:55:41 “For prudent investors,” he told reporters now, “is the time to buy good bonds,” he added carefully,
    0:55:47 “that while many stocks remain sound investments, some are too high of a price to be good buys.”
    0:55:53 It was classic Mellon, measured, precise, and systematic. But in a market gripped by speculative
    0:56:01 fever, his quiet voice went unheard. The crash when it came was unprecedented in its severity.
    0:56:07 October 23rd saw what papers called a hurricane of liquidation. More than 6 million shares changed
    0:56:14 hands, wiping out over 4 billion in paper value. The next day, dubbed Black Thursday, nearly 13
    0:56:21 million shares traded. By October 29th, 16 million shares changed hands, a record that would stand
    0:56:27 for 39 years. What made the crash particularly devastating wasn’t just the falling prices,
    0:56:34 it’s that so many people had borrowed heavily to invest, turning paper losses into real bankruptcy.
    0:56:39 While others panicked, Mellon displayed the same quiet observation that had built his fortune.
    0:56:43 His diary entry for that fateful Tuesday simply noted, “Stock Market Panic,”
    0:56:47 “RBM Telephones from Pittsburgh Asking Conditions as to Money,”
    0:56:52 “Devene Comes to Lunch.” While Wall Street was in meltdown, he calmly discussed
    0:56:56 art acquisitions over lunch with Devene, a famous art dealer. This calm wasn’t just
    0:57:01 personality, it was positioning. One of the things that seems underappreciated about many
    0:57:07 outliers is that they’re never forced by circumstances into bad decisions. Mellon’s
    0:57:12 decades of systematic thinking had created a fortress of wealth that no market panic could
    0:57:17 breach. He simply did not have to sell. In fact, he could take advantage of the dislocation.
    0:57:26 His composure was cold Mellon rationality. Only 2.5% of Americans owned stocks in 1929,
    0:57:31 and his own wealth remained largely insulated, tied up in mostly private enterprises like Gulf
    0:57:36 Oil and Alcoa, rather than publicly traded securities. In fact, while the market crashed
    0:57:44 around him, his personal income actually increased from 5.2 million in 1928 to 7.8 million in 1929.
    0:57:50 However, the coming crisis would demand more than just cool analysis. It would require a kind
    0:57:56 of public leadership that had never been his strength. The qualities that had made Andrew
    0:58:02 Mellon a financial genius, patience, detachment, systematic thinking were about to become his
    0:58:10 fatal flaws. By January 1932, more than 10 million Americans were underemployed. In industrial cities
    0:58:16 like Pittsburgh, his Pittsburgh unemployment approached 50%. The crisis came to a head in
    0:58:22 September 1931, when Britain abandoned the gold standard, triggering another cascade of bank failures
    0:58:29 across America. Among the victims was the Bank of Pittsburgh, the city’s oldest financial institution.
    0:58:35 It was the only major bank in Pittsburgh outside of the Mellon reach. It was particularly hard
    0:58:39 hit when Britain abandoned the gold standard. In contrast, the Mellon banks were exceptionally
    0:58:44 well-capitalized throughout the Depression. The Bank of Pittsburgh needed $1 million to remain
    0:58:49 insolvent, a trivial sum for a man of Mellon’s wealth. A late-night meeting at his Fifth Avenue
    0:58:55 Managing could have saved it. Instead, Mellon imposed a condition he knew would be rejected.
    0:59:00 He wanted control. The directors refused, effectively ensuring the bank’s collapse.
    0:59:06 Mellon knew exactly what he was doing. For by imposing such conditions, he would either obtain
    0:59:12 the Bank of Pittsburgh for nothing or terminate it for nothing. Mathematically, it was pure win-win.
    0:59:16 Remember, to Andrew Mellon, who was brought to believe that only the strongest survived,
    0:59:20 recessions were nothing more than an opportunity for the strong to get stronger and acquire the weak.
    0:59:25 And these opportunities don’t come around very often, so you have to take advantage of them.
    0:59:30 Reputationally, Mellon’s approach was a disaster. It was the act of a man who coldly pressed his
    0:59:35 advantage too far. This reminds me of something Warren Buffett said. “It takes 20 years to
    0:59:40 build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you’ll do things differently.”
    0:59:46 The mistake Mellon made was reputation, not his balance sheet, was actually his biggest asset.
    0:59:51 His prescription for the Depression remained equally cold and rational. Liquidate labor,
    0:59:56 liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate, he advised President Hoover.
    1:00:00 The Depression in Mellon’s view was just another problem to be solved. A necessary
    1:00:08 win that cleared away economic excesses just as the panics of 1873 and 1907 had done before.
    1:00:12 As Mellon’s reputation started to sour, a Pittsburgh newspaper captured the public’s
    1:00:19 verdict. The Mellon family is in disresput. The worship has ended. The glamour has utterly
    1:00:24 disappeared. The ghost of Pittsburgh, who had built an empire through patient observation,
    1:00:28 now found himself unable to adapt to a world that had fundamentally changed.
    1:00:33 The ghost of Pittsburgh was about to meet his opposite. A man who believed that silence and
    1:00:39 patience was part of the problem, not the solution. When Franklin Delano Roosevelt emerged as the
    1:00:45 voice of new American capitalism, it set up more than a political dispute. It was a clash between
    1:00:52 two fundamentally different ideologies. Roosevelt articulated this divide in a September 1932
    1:00:57 speech to the San Francisco Commonwealth Club, where he directly challenged everything
    1:01:02 Mellon represented. The last half-century Roosevelt declared had been, in large measure,
    1:01:08 a history of a group of financial titans. Society had given these men free play and
    1:01:12 unlimited reward based on the belief that the business of government was not to interfere
    1:01:18 but to assist in the development of industry. But now, Roosevelt insisted, there was need
    1:01:24 for a reappraisal of values. He wanted a new deal. Under the harsh light of the Depression,
    1:01:29 FDR argued the very qualities that Mellon embodied, the patient accumulator of wealth,
    1:01:35 a mere builder of more industrial plants, a creator of more railroad system, and organizer
    1:01:41 of more corporations was as likely to be a dagger as a help. The era of the great promoter
    1:01:47 and financial titan to whom America had granted everything if only he would build and develop
    1:01:53 and employ was over. The philosophical divide cut to the heart of how each person viewed human
    1:01:59 suffering. For Roosevelt, the Depression wasn’t just an economic event, it was a human catastrophe
    1:02:04 requiring immediate government intervention. But for Mellon, the downturn, however severe,
    1:02:10 remained part of the natural economic order. Like a fever breaking, the suffering must be endured
    1:02:15 until the system purged itself of excess. It was the same lessons his father had taught him growing
    1:02:21 up. Survival of the fittest, always be prepared. Never put yourself in a position where circumstances
    1:02:26 can force you into poor decisions. Never reach too far. Be prudent and ride it out. No one is
    1:02:32 coming to save you, you must save yourself. The contrast in FDR and Mellon’s approaches could
    1:02:38 not have been starker. While Mellon advocated patience and calm, Roosevelt mobilized every tool
    1:02:46 of government power. Where Mellon saw the crashes of 1873 and 1907 as precedent, Roosevelt saw an
    1:02:54 unprecedented crisis requiring unprecedented solutions. Yet here was the ultimate irony both
    1:02:59 men were trying to save American capitalism. They just differed profoundly on how to go about it.
    1:03:04 Roosevelt believed that capitalism needed strong regulatory framework and a social safety net
    1:03:10 to survive. Mellon and his peers believed in the same principles that had built their fortunes,
    1:03:15 individual liberty, self-help, and minimal government intervention. But the world had
    1:03:20 changed and the principles that had once built their empires now threatened to destroy them.
    1:03:25 For a man who had spent his life avoiding attention, Andrew Mellon now found himself
    1:03:31 at the center of a national storm. By early 1932, letters poured in from across the country,
    1:03:37 denouncing him as everything from a robber to America’s Mussolini. When his picture appeared
    1:03:43 on a movie theater screen in Pittsburgh, his Pittsburgh, the crowd reportedly shouted, “Robber!”
    1:03:48 The architect of the roaring twenties had become the villain of the Great Depression.
    1:03:54 The people needed an enemy and naturally the unrelatable Mellon would make a great one.
    1:04:01 On January 6, 1932, a freshman Democratic congressman from Texas, Wright Patman,
    1:04:07 stood before a packed house of representatives and declared, “On my own responsibility as a member
    1:04:14 of the house, I am Peach Andrew William Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury of the United States
    1:04:20 for high crimes and misdemeanors.” The charges ranged from illegal ownership of bank stock to
    1:04:25 profiting from companies doing business with the Soviet Union. But the legal accusations were
    1:04:32 merely a vehicle for something deeper, a nation’s fury at what they saw as Mellon’s cold indifference
    1:04:37 to their suffering. The systematic thinking that had built his fortune now seemed like a callous
    1:04:44 detachment in the face of human misery. President Hoover himself politically wounded saw an elegant
    1:04:49 solution to this. He offered Mellon the position of ambassador to Great Britain, a golden parachute
    1:04:54 that would remove him from the Treasury while preserving his dignity. Mellon accepted,
    1:05:00 though without enthusiasm. It was he told reporters like a divorce. And given his personal
    1:05:05 experience with the divorce, this didn’t suggest a pleasant thing. Mellon’s departure marked more
    1:05:11 than just another political casualty. It signaled the end of an era in American economic thinking.
    1:05:16 The banker’s faith and eventual market self-correction in patience and systematic thinking
    1:05:22 gave way to Roosevelt’s vision of active government management. The debate between these
    1:05:27 two competing philosophies, the government saving people or the people being fully responsible,
    1:05:32 continues to shape American economic policy today and policy all around the globe.
    1:05:38 In the summer of 1933, Andrew Mellon made what would prove to be a fateful visit to the White
    1:05:43 House. The meeting with Roosevelt seemed cordial. They discussed banking reform and Mellon left
    1:05:49 remarking, “What a charming man Mr. Roosevelt is.” The very next day, Roosevelt signed into law the
    1:05:55 very bill they discussed, completely contrary to their conversation. What Mellon didn’t know,
    1:06:00 what he couldn’t know, was that he’d already been marked for destruction, him and every other
    1:06:06 industrialist and banker. Within a week of Roosevelt’s inauguration before Mellon had even returned
    1:06:12 from his ambassadorship in London, the government had begun investigating his tax returns. This wasn’t
    1:06:19 routine tax enforcement. It was lawfare, the use of the legal system as a weapon of political warfare.
    1:06:25 The man who had built his empire through patient observation now found himself under hostile
    1:06:32 observation. The focus was pecure, a single art purchase, the Raphael Madonna, which Mellon had
    1:06:37 donated to his charitable trust. This specific charge Mellon had sold stocks at a loss to reduce
    1:06:43 his taxes, then repurchased them through companies he controlled after the legally required waiting
    1:06:48 period. Everything he did was perfectly legal, but that didn’t matter. True to his systematic
    1:06:52 nature, Mellon responded with cool and cold precision. He opened his books completely,
    1:06:58 putting his entire staff at the investigator’s disposal. After three weeks of examination,
    1:07:02 with people like going over everything this guy had done trying to find something,
    1:07:08 the Justice Department agents found that nothing was irregular. The Bureau of Internal Revenue
    1:07:14 actually recommended he receive a small refund, but lawfare never lets facts get in the way.
    1:07:20 As the incoming Treasury Secretary, Henry Warntho Jr. spelled out, I consider that Mr.
    1:07:25 Mellon is not on trial, but democracy and the privileged rich, and I want to see who will win.
    1:07:31 In a final twist of irony, when the grand jury, composed of laborers, mechanics, farmers, and
    1:07:38 craftsmen, voted on Mellon’s indictment, they decided 11 to 10 against. As one newspaper observed,
    1:07:44 the larger standing fact is that a grand jury of such men as have little reason to love the rich
    1:07:49 tossed the government’s complaint into the discard. Mellon was completely cleared, but
    1:07:55 his reputation was damaged forever. The trial’s real significance went beyond mere tax. As Fortune
    1:08:01 Magazine would later observe, the plain fact of the matter was that Mr. Mellon had made out his
    1:08:07 tax return in one economic era and was being prosecuted for it in another. The systematic
    1:08:13 thinker who had mastered one era found himself a stranger in the next. Let’s pause here just to
    1:08:20 appreciate the full irony of Mellon’s story here. Here was one of history’s most successful bankers
    1:08:26 and investors, a man who could have spent the 1920s quietly compounding his wealth,
    1:08:34 choosing instead to dedicate a decade to public service. The cost to him was enormous,
    1:08:39 hundreds of millions of dollars and foregone opportunities to focus on serving and saving
    1:08:46 his country. His reward, he left the nation’s finances in the best shape they had ever been in,
    1:08:51 but that wasn’t enough. He saw the speculative bubble building and tried to stop it,
    1:08:56 voting repeatedly to raise interest rates he was ignored. Then, hold on, before this,
    1:09:01 then he goes to the public and he says to reporters that you should basically sell stocks,
    1:09:06 but he does it in a very understated way. And then, finally, his warnings proved correct,
    1:09:12 and he became the target of the very excesses he tried to prevent. The final twist of the knife,
    1:09:17 after a politically motivated investigation tore through his life, the verdict was clear,
    1:09:22 he had done nothing wrong. The ghost of Pittsburgh, it seemed, was guilty of only being out of step
    1:09:27 with his times. There’s a larger lesson here about power, public service, and reputation.
    1:09:32 Mellon’s cold rational mind had built one of history’s greatest fortunes, but rationality,
    1:09:38 it turns out, can’t protect you from politics. The tax trial was never really about taxes.
    1:09:43 What Roosevelt’s administration put on trial was the entire way of thinking about American
    1:09:49 capitalism, and Andrew Mellon was its perfect poster child. As Ogden Mills, Mellon’s successor
    1:09:55 at Treasury observed, the administration was entirely lacking in elementary sense of decency.
    1:10:01 The goal wasn’t to win in court, it was to destroy everything that Mellon represented.
    1:10:03 In this, Roosevelt succeeded.
    1:10:10 The man once hailed as the greatest secretary of Treasury since Alexander Hamilton
    1:10:14 found himself transformed from financial genius to public villain.
    1:10:19 The ghost of Pittsburgh, who had built his fortune through patience and systematic thinking,
    1:10:24 became a symbol of everything wrong with American capitalism. The transformation revealed something
    1:10:29 profound about American society. Mellon’s core belief, the government should stay out of business
    1:10:35 affairs, had once seemed like common sense. Now, thanks to FDR, that approach appeared not just
    1:10:41 wrong, but morally repugnant. His fall from grace wasn’t merely personal, it forever changed how
    1:10:48 Americans viewed the relationship between business and government. Epilogue, the final gift.
    1:10:57 In December 1936, as Roosevelt celebrated his landslide re-election and the new deal reached
    1:11:02 its zenith, Andrew Mellon demonstrated one final time the power of systematic thinking.
    1:11:09 Despite years of political persecution, despite a tax trial that had sought to destroy his reputation,
    1:11:14 he would give the American people a gift unprecedented in the nation’s history.
    1:11:19 But what truly revealed Mellon’s genius wasn’t just the magnitude of the gift,
    1:11:23 it was how he structured it. In creating the National Gallery of Art in Washington,
    1:11:29 he applied the same precise and strategic thinking that had built his business empire.
    1:11:34 The key insight came from careful observation. Mellon watched as other great art collections,
    1:11:39 the Huntington Gallery, the Carnegie Institute, the Frick Collection, struggle to grow after
    1:11:45 their founders’ deaths. Other collectors he noticed were reluctant to donate their treasures to the
    1:11:50 buildings that bore another person’s name. His solution was characteristic Mellon, maximize
    1:11:55 the outcome by minimizing ego. He explicitly refused to put his name on the building,
    1:12:00 instead insisting on calling it the National Gallery of Art. His collection would serve
    1:12:05 not as a monument to himself, but as a nucleus around which something far greater could grow.
    1:12:11 It was the Mellon system in its final, perhaps most perfect form. Provide the initial capital,
    1:12:15 establish the right conditions for growth, and then let the enterprise build its own momentum.
    1:12:21 Even in his final act, Andrew Mellon thought like a system builder. The governance structure
    1:12:26 for his National Gallery revealed the same careful planning he applied to every venture.
    1:12:31 He created a board of nine trustees with five private citizens forming a controlling majority.
    1:12:36 Each trustee was selected with characteristic precision, his son-in-law David Bruce,
    1:12:40 his lawyer Donald Shepard, and others he knew would protect the institution’s
    1:12:45 independence and standards. The design was pure Mellon, a private institution operating
    1:12:50 in the public interest, subject to no review by any federal officer or agency other than a court
    1:12:55 of law. Works could only be added if they met the high standards set by his initial collection.
    1:13:00 It was exactly the model he had always believed in, private initiative creating public good.
    1:13:05 Some cynics suggest the gallery was merely an attempt to win favor during his tax trial,
    1:13:10 but Mellon’s systematic mind had been quietly working on the gallery for years before his
    1:13:14 troubles began. In fact, you’re not even going to believe this, this is a boy run. You can’t
    1:13:19 make this up. The education and charitable trust he created to fund the gallery became
    1:13:25 one of the very things prosecutors tried to use against him. In the final months of his life,
    1:13:30 a different Andrew Mellon emerged. The banker, who had spent decades accumulating wealth,
    1:13:35 now worked with unprecedented urgency to create something lasting for the American people.
    1:13:40 When asked why he persisted, despite continued opposition from the administration, he replied,
    1:13:44 “Eventually the people now in power in Washington will be dead, and I will be dead,
    1:13:49 but the National Gallery, I hope, will be there, and that is something the country needs.”
    1:13:54 Time has vindicated his vision. Today, the National Gallery stands as one of the world’s
    1:14:01 great museums. Its collection far larger than what Mellon initially provided. Other collectors,
    1:14:06 just as he had predicted, have added their own treasures to this truly national institution.
    1:14:11 The ghosts of Pittsburgh had created something that would outlive not just his reputation,
    1:14:17 but the very era that had tried to destroy it. Perhaps that’s the final lesson of Andrew Mellon’s
    1:14:23 remarkable life. True legacy isn’t about putting your name on buildings, it’s about creating something
    1:14:28 that outlasts you. Conditions that allow something greater than yourself to grow and flourish
    1:14:33 long after you’re gone. In giving his art to the nation, Mellon didn’t just build a museum,
    1:14:39 he created an institution that continues to enrich American cultural life nearly a century later.
    1:14:51 Thanks for listening and learning with us. The Furnum Street blog is where you can learn more
    1:14:56 about my new book, “Clear Thinking,” turning ordinary moments into extraordinary results.
    1:15:02 It’s a transformative guide that hands you the tools to master your fate, sharpen your decision
    1:15:17 making, and set yourself up for unparalleled success. Learn more at fs.blog/clear. Until next time.

    He was the strangest titan America ever produced: a whisper-quiet banker who turned systematic thinking into a superpower, building an industrial empire while barely raising his voice above a murmur. Andrew Mellon’s story isn’t just about money—it’s about how patience, observation, and positioning can create more wealth than charisma ever could. But when the Great Depression hit, the very qualities that made him rich made him the perfect villain for a nation demanding change. 

    Whether you’re building a business, investing in the future, or seeking insights on strategic decision-making, Mellon’s story reveals the power of patience, positioning, and playing the long game. 

    (2:25) Prologue: The Quiet Titan

    (4:20) Part 1 – The Judge’s Son

    (6:36) Benjamin Franklin’s Blueprint

    (8:53) The Pittsburgh Promise

    (10:45) Andrew’s Early Years

    (13:11) Part 2 – Building the System

    (14:23) The Banking Foundation

    (17:09) Panic Creates Opportunity

    (20:09) Andy at the Wheel

    (22:05) Opportunity in Aluminum

    (24:10) The Mellon System

    (27:12) Connections Create Power

    (29:02) Reinvesting Success

    (30:51) Staying in the Shadows

    (33:28) Part 3 – The Private Kingdom

    (34:52) A Broken Heart

    (36:56) Science Meets Industry

    (39:35) Preparations for War

    (41:39) The Silent Empire Strikes

    (44:04) Part 4 – Washington’s Banker

    (45:58) The Banker Takes Command

    (47:49) The Banker’s Paradox

    (50:27) The Silent Man Learns to Speak

    (52:03) Part 5 – The Fall

    (53:56) 1928

    (55:25) Black Thursday

    (57:23) When Strength Becomes Weakness

    (59:58) Roosevelt’s Vendetta

    (1:02:48) The Silent Man Shouted Down

    (1:05:01) The Final Battle: Mellon’s Tax Trial

    (1:09:04) The End of an Era

    (1:10:14) Epilogue – The Final Gift

    (1:11:44) Thinking Long Term

    This podcast is for information purposes only and draws primarily from two foundational books: David Cannadine’s ‘Mellon: An American Life’, the first comprehensive published biography of Andrew W. Mellon, which masterfully chronicles his journey from shy Pittsburgh boy to industrial titan, Treasury Secretary, and philanthropist. The second source, ‘Thomas Mellon and His Times’, written by Andrew’s father Thomas Mellon himself provides invaluable firsthand insights into the immigrant experience and the formation of the Mellon family’s business philosophy in America. If this story captured your interest, we highly recommend both works – Cannadine’s for its thorough examination of Andrew’s profound impact on American business, politics, and philanthropy, and Thomas Mellon’s autobiography for its intimate portrait of the family’s rise from immigrant farmers to financial powerhouses in both nineteenth- and twentieth-century Pittsburgh. 

    Upgrade — If you want to hear my thoughts and reflections at the end of the episode, join our membership: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠ and get your own private feed.

    Newsletter – The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at fs.blog/newsletter

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  • #215 David Heacock: Managing and Marketing a $250M Business

    AI transcript
    0:00:02 I like to think about,
    0:00:04 what am I going to be thinking about on my deathbed?
    0:00:06 And I know for me,
    0:00:10 the things I will regret are things that I did not try
    0:00:12 or that I knew I could have done
    0:00:13 or thought I could have done
    0:00:15 if only I put in more effort
    0:00:18 or things that I didn’t do because I was fearful.
    0:00:20 Those are the things that I’m going to regret.
    0:00:22 It’s not going to be the times where I make a mistake.
    0:00:25 And so for me, there is no other option
    0:00:27 but to see how big of an impact I can have.
    0:00:29 I’m on a mission to build the world’s leading indoor air quality
    0:00:30 company.
    0:00:33 I’ve scaled from zero to $250 million a year.
    0:00:35 And in the next five to 10 years,
    0:00:37 I intend to take that to a billion dollars plus.
    0:00:41 And I wake up every single day,
    0:00:43 working on my business and thinking about
    0:00:45 how I’m going to grow it
    0:00:48 and ultimately build out my vision.
    0:00:58 Welcome to The Knowledge Project.
    0:01:01 I’m your host, Shane Parrish.
    0:01:02 In a world where knowledge is power,
    0:01:05 this podcast is your toolkit for mastering the best
    0:01:07 of what other people have already figured out.
    0:01:09 If you want to take your learning to the next level,
    0:01:11 consider joining our membership program
    0:01:13 at fs.blog/membership.
    0:01:16 As a member, you’ll get my personal reflections
    0:01:18 at the end of every episode,
    0:01:20 early access to episodes,
    0:01:21 no ads including this,
    0:01:23 exclusive content,
    0:01:25 hand edited transcripts and so much more.
    0:01:27 Check out the link in the show notes for more.
    0:01:30 Today, I’m talking with David Heacock,
    0:01:31 who left his Wall Street career
    0:01:34 to build a business selling air filters.
    0:01:38 What sounds like an unlikely bet has become filtered by
    0:01:42 a $250 million manufacturing company,
    0:01:45 producing over 100,000 filters daily
    0:01:48 and serving more than 7 million customers.
    0:01:51 David shares the real story behind his empire,
    0:01:52 walking away from Wall Street,
    0:01:55 constructing his first plant, navigating Amazon
    0:01:57 and even the freight decision,
    0:01:59 he now calls his biggest mistake.
    0:02:01 No startup platitudes,
    0:02:03 just hard-earned lessons from someone
    0:02:05 who’s been in the trenches.
    0:02:08 We dig into what actually matters in building a business,
    0:02:11 hiring, managing its scale, branding versus marketing,
    0:02:14 why many direct-to-consumer brands
    0:02:16 aren’t really direct-to-consumer at all.
    0:02:20 David talks candidly about balancing between obsession
    0:02:23 that you need for success and with family life at home.
    0:02:25 And importantly, throughout the podcast,
    0:02:28 you’ll see the mindset of a founder in real time.
    0:02:30 Whether you’re starting a business, scaling one
    0:02:34 or simply curious about turning a bold idea into reality,
    0:02:37 this conversation is packed with actionable insights
    0:02:40 from someone who’s done it and is doing it.
    0:02:42 It’s time to listen and learn.
    0:02:49 – You said you felt like an outsider at Goldman.
    0:02:50 Why did you stay so long?
    0:02:54 – Well, I’m stubborn and honestly,
    0:02:57 I had manifested my job at Goldman in a way.
    0:03:00 Like, I really, it’s something that for years,
    0:03:03 I had idolized and it made happen in my life.
    0:03:04 You know, I didn’t go to an Ivy League school.
    0:03:08 I didn’t come from a rich Northeastern-type family
    0:03:10 that had, you know, family and private equity
    0:03:12 and all the traditional feeders
    0:03:15 that lead to a finance career normally.
    0:03:18 I went to the George Washington University.
    0:03:20 And about my sophomore or junior year,
    0:03:22 I really decided I wanted to go into finance
    0:03:25 and the premier place to work was Goldman Sachs.
    0:03:30 And so I became very obsessed with working at Goldman Sachs.
    0:03:34 And there’s no pathway from the George Washington University
    0:03:36 to Goldman Sachs, at least not at the time.
    0:03:39 You know, it’s just not how they hired and recruited.
    0:03:42 And I studied economics and statistics in college
    0:03:45 and, you know, I was in Washington, D.C.
    0:03:48 and I just happened to be really close
    0:03:50 with like the economics professors
    0:03:52 because I was probably the top, you know,
    0:03:55 kind of economic student in college
    0:03:59 and did a paper on predicting currency crises
    0:04:02 using a diffusion index kind of geeky thing.
    0:04:04 And my professors were really impressed by it
    0:04:07 and kind of ended up forwarding it to somebody
    0:04:09 within Goldman that saw it.
    0:04:10 And then I ended up interviewing
    0:04:12 within the economics research department.
    0:04:13 So I ended up coming to New York
    0:04:17 and doing seven or eight interviews and they hired me.
    0:04:19 It was less formal of a hiring process
    0:04:22 than, you know, the traditional Goldman process.
    0:04:26 So I kind of got in through the backdoor that way.
    0:04:26 And it was great for me.
    0:04:29 I mean, I loved it.
    0:04:30 It was such a challenge.
    0:04:33 And honestly, I would not be where I am today
    0:04:36 without the skills that I honed in that.
    0:04:37 So–
    0:04:38 – What did you learn there?
    0:04:40 Like what specifically, what lessons
    0:04:41 did you take away from that?
    0:04:44 – It’s really the ability to make a decision quickly
    0:04:45 and then own that decision
    0:04:48 and manage the risk of that decision.
    0:04:51 And so when it fast forward to my business career,
    0:04:54 like one of the things that I think that I sell at
    0:04:58 is making decisions quickly and owning those decisions
    0:05:01 and not, you know, second guessing or not kind of,
    0:05:02 like once I make a decision,
    0:05:04 I make a decision and I move on.
    0:05:07 But I also am very aware of my risk.
    0:05:09 And like if it’s a decision
    0:05:11 that has a lot of risk associated with it,
    0:05:13 it’s something that I, you know,
    0:05:15 make sure that I’m taking that into account.
    0:05:18 And so, you know, Jeff Bezos has this concept
    0:05:20 of one-way doors versus two-way doors.
    0:05:22 You know, so you have to be like,
    0:05:24 but with two-way doors where you know
    0:05:26 that you can always get out of it very quickly,
    0:05:28 like I make decisions quicker than anybody
    0:05:31 and then manage that and don’t pray so much about it.
    0:05:33 But I’m also hyper aware of those one-way doors
    0:05:36 where you need to be super careful doing something
    0:05:39 that, you know, was irrevocable more or less.
    0:05:43 And so I think the hyper-awareness around that
    0:05:45 and living that on a day-to-day basis
    0:05:49 really accelerated the learning curve for me later on.
    0:05:50 – Well, let’s double click on that for a second.
    0:05:55 You said growing quickly at Filter by was a one-way door.
    0:05:57 How did you think about that decision?
    0:05:59 – Well, I don’t know that I said that explicitly,
    0:06:02 but I don’t know that that would be untrue.
    0:06:07 You know, I committed to my entrepreneurial journey fully
    0:06:09 when I made that decision.
    0:06:13 And so for me, it’s ultimately a decision
    0:06:17 that I knew that I was going to own completely
    0:06:18 and there was no failing.
    0:06:20 And so, you know, if I was going to frame it
    0:06:23 in the one-way door world, it would be around that.
    0:06:25 It’s like, I’m burning all the boats
    0:06:28 and I’m all in on my vision.
    0:06:32 And, you know, there was a long common-looded story
    0:06:35 about how I ultimately got into that business.
    0:06:38 But when I left my job at Goldman and, you know,
    0:06:41 I didn’t know exactly what I was going to do,
    0:06:44 but I was determined to make it successful
    0:06:45 and to make it something big.
    0:06:49 And, you know, a big motivation for me going so public
    0:06:52 with my personal brand in the last couple of months
    0:06:55 is really about burning the boats behind me
    0:06:57 because, you know, I’m on a mission
    0:06:59 to build the world’s leading indoor air quality company.
    0:07:02 And, you know, I don’t want there to be
    0:07:04 any other option for me.
    0:07:07 And I know if I come here and I tell you that
    0:07:09 and I tell the people that are watching that,
    0:07:11 that I’ve effectively burned all the boats
    0:07:13 and I’m fully committed to that
    0:07:15 because I’m going to wake up every day
    0:07:18 and work towards that bigger vision.
    0:07:22 And so that was a very calculated one-way door,
    0:07:24 as you put it, because I don’t want to give myself
    0:07:26 any other alternative.
    0:07:27 – I love that.
    0:07:29 You mentioned the word “obsessed” earlier.
    0:07:32 That seems to take a negative connotation in culture,
    0:07:34 but I think you embrace it.
    0:07:36 – Yeah, I mean, I think if you want to do anything big,
    0:07:37 you have to be obsessed.
    0:07:39 Because if not, you’re competing with somebody who is.
    0:07:42 And, you know, it’s completely okay not to be obsessed.
    0:07:45 I mean, there’s, and not to be super driven
    0:07:48 or like there’s no, there’s nothing wrong
    0:07:49 with not having that.
    0:07:51 But if you want to be the best at something
    0:07:55 or if you want to have a disproportionate outcome in life,
    0:07:57 then you have to be, we have to recognize
    0:08:01 that you’re competing with other people that are obsessed.
    0:08:04 And so I think that you’re being quite naive
    0:08:06 to believe that you can achieve anything big,
    0:08:08 competing with the world’s marketplace
    0:08:10 without being obsessed.
    0:08:13 And so, you know, I think that, you know,
    0:08:15 it just depends on what you want out of life.
    0:08:16 – Take me up close.
    0:08:17 What does obsession look like?
    0:08:20 What does it look like on a day-to-day basis?
    0:08:24 And what are the tolls or the costs that people don’t see?
    0:08:27 – I have on filter by for 12 years, more or less.
    0:08:29 And there’s not a day I don’t wake up.
    0:08:32 And it’s the first thing I’m thinking about.
    0:08:35 Seven days a week, you know, if I go on vacation,
    0:08:38 there’s no, you know, not checking in
    0:08:39 or no, I’m not thinking about it.
    0:08:41 I actually view vacation as a great time
    0:08:43 for me to mentally reset.
    0:08:46 But that reset comes around framing about,
    0:08:48 hey, what is my next move going to be, right?
    0:08:53 So there is no other part of my business life outside of that.
    0:08:57 I mean, I’m fortunate that I do have a great family.
    0:09:01 And I think it’s possible to have good personal relationships
    0:09:04 and, you know, be a good father and whatnot.
    0:09:07 Like I don’t think that those things are mutually exclusive,
    0:09:08 but I don’t have any hobbies.
    0:09:11 It’s my family and my business.
    0:09:13 And that is my life.
    0:09:16 And I wake up every single day, you know,
    0:09:18 working on my business and thinking
    0:09:20 about how I’m going to grow it
    0:09:23 and ultimately build out my vision.
    0:09:26 And that is what obsession is.
    0:09:28 I mean, there is no, like I saw,
    0:09:31 there was some controversial post a few days ago
    0:09:33 about how people shouldn’t work on weekends.
    0:09:35 And, you know, talking about the importance
    0:09:36 of work-life balance and stuff.
    0:09:38 And, you know, everybody’s different
    0:09:40 and that’s completely fine.
    0:09:44 But for me, my lived experience is if I want to do something
    0:09:47 in a big way, then I have to be all in on that.
    0:09:50 And, you know, for me, that’s, you know,
    0:09:52 burning all the boats and, you know,
    0:09:56 waking up every day, working towards one vision.
    0:09:58 And that’s what it looks like for me.
    0:10:01 – After you had the first plant up and running,
    0:10:03 how did you decide what next?
    0:10:05 Walk me through sort of like, how do you go from that?
    0:10:08 How do you determine what the next step is?
    0:10:11 – Well, I think that people like to look back
    0:10:15 and, you know, kind of idolize it as if there’s, you know,
    0:10:17 there was a plan, it was a plan all along.
    0:10:22 When oftentimes it’s, you know, evolution of skills
    0:10:24 and an evolution of your thinking.
    0:10:27 And, you know, honestly, you know, for the first eight years,
    0:10:29 we only operated in Talladega, Alabama,
    0:10:31 where I’m originally from.
    0:10:34 And I knew it was important for us
    0:10:36 to diversify geographically,
    0:10:38 but I was too scared to do it
    0:10:40 because it felt like such a big risk
    0:10:42 and such a big undertaking.
    0:10:46 And I didn’t have the guts, quite frankly,
    0:10:47 to go in and to do it.
    0:10:51 And then COVID happened and I worked with the team
    0:10:52 to figure out how we were gonna work through it.
    0:10:55 And we were getting so slammed
    0:10:57 and about two to three weeks into that process
    0:10:58 of working with it,
    0:11:01 Amazon stopped third-party sellers
    0:11:04 from sending products into their warehouses.
    0:11:07 And at the exact same time, FedEx made the decision
    0:11:09 to cap the number of trailers
    0:11:12 that we were able to ship from our Talladega location
    0:11:14 because they were getting overloaded.
    0:11:15 It’s basically saying, you know,
    0:11:17 we can’t take any more business.
    0:11:20 And I was faced with the decision,
    0:11:23 do I either expand my geographic footprint
    0:11:25 and I made the deal with FedEx
    0:11:27 to allow me additional capacity
    0:11:29 if I would expand it out
    0:11:32 and not overload just their Southeast network
    0:11:35 or do I just raise my prices like a lot of our competitors
    0:11:37 did and milk this for what it’s worth
    0:11:40 and, you know, stay as we are.
    0:11:44 And I made the decision to open our Ogden Utah plant
    0:11:49 in May of 2020 because after those discussions
    0:11:53 and by July of 2020, we were shipping products out of there.
    0:11:55 And that was, you know,
    0:11:58 when I made the decision to really go all in
    0:12:01 and kind of stop being scared about it to an extent
    0:12:04 and was really kind of the point
    0:12:06 that led us from where we are today.
    0:12:09 In 2019, we did about $70 million of revenue.
    0:12:11 So we had gotten to some size just grinding,
    0:12:13 but it was not super profitable
    0:12:16 and it was still just really difficult.
    0:12:17 And, you know, now in 2024,
    0:12:20 we’ll do about $250 million of revenue.
    0:12:22 And so it was COVID,
    0:12:24 COVID was a big tailwind for that.
    0:12:27 But because we’re in a consumable product
    0:12:30 where customers need to come back after they find you
    0:12:34 and COVID was such a good customer acquisition time for us
    0:12:36 that my decision to actually lean in
    0:12:40 and figure out a way to service those customers at scale
    0:12:43 is really a key point that allowed me
    0:12:45 to get to where I am today.
    0:12:48 – Walk me through building the first plant
    0:12:51 and the problems and challenges that you had to overcome.
    0:12:53 – You know, it’s one of these things
    0:12:55 that’s extremely difficult to articulate
    0:12:59 because it almost sounds far-fetched so much of it.
    0:13:01 And it’s hard for me to even believe I lived it, you know,
    0:13:05 in retrospect and being a bit more mature now,
    0:13:06 when I look back on it,
    0:13:09 it was a very much a hubristic move to say,
    0:13:11 I’m going to go out,
    0:13:14 I have zero experience in manufacturing,
    0:13:17 zero experience in manufacturing an air filter,
    0:13:21 never been in an air filter manufacturing plant,
    0:13:24 but I’m going to start the process
    0:13:27 of manufacturing air filters at scale.
    0:13:31 So, you know, when I look back at it with, you know,
    0:13:34 kind of more mature eyes, it seems quite crazy,
    0:13:37 but, you know, I was younger
    0:13:41 and I guess I was very self-confident
    0:13:44 and I knew just had the self-belief
    0:13:47 that I was going to figure it out.
    0:13:51 But it really took me three to four years
    0:13:54 to get to the point where we could manufacture
    0:13:56 a product profitably.
    0:14:00 And what I mean by that is until that three
    0:14:02 or four year period, it would have been cheaper
    0:14:05 for me to buy the product we were selling
    0:14:08 from a large manufacturer of air filters.
    0:14:10 – And just repackage it. – And repackage it.
    0:14:13 And so, you know, we weren’t actually losing money
    0:14:15 in that, you know, our business model was different
    0:14:17 and we were lucky that I was good
    0:14:20 with the online marketing piece of it.
    0:14:22 And it was, you know, I brought a lot of those skills
    0:14:24 that allowed us to kind of get through that period
    0:14:26 that I did it myself.
    0:14:30 But, you know, I, any time in that, you know,
    0:14:31 first four years, if you had looked at it,
    0:14:35 you would have said that this manufacturing makes no sense
    0:14:38 because, you know, we weren’t making any money.
    0:14:41 In fact, we were losing potential money by doing it
    0:14:44 and it was taking up so much of my energy
    0:14:46 and we had so many employees in that
    0:14:50 and it was constantly bringing problems.
    0:14:52 But I knew that to do it at real scale
    0:14:55 that I needed to have that manufacturing.
    0:14:56 So I stuck with it.
    0:15:01 And, you know, I was living in New York City at the time.
    0:15:05 My wife was, or still is a radiologist at NYU.
    0:15:10 And we were living here and I would travel
    0:15:12 every Monday morning to Alabama.
    0:15:15 I actually kept a car in Atlanta at the, you know,
    0:15:19 parking go where I would go there a Monday morning
    0:15:21 and then drive from Atlanta to Talladega.
    0:15:23 It’s about a two hour drive.
    0:15:26 And I would stay there Monday through Friday and come back.
    0:15:28 And so for the first three years,
    0:15:31 I did that essentially every week, you know,
    0:15:34 building the manufacturing during the day
    0:15:37 and doing all of my programming work
    0:15:41 or marketing work or whatever you need at night
    0:15:43 for, you know, that first three years.
    0:15:45 I mean, and I still did a lot of those functions
    0:15:47 for the first eight years of the business.
    0:15:51 And, you know, because I couldn’t afford to actually hire
    0:15:54 anybody else to do any of those things.
    0:15:57 So I did all the finance, all the management
    0:16:00 of our development team, all the marketing, you know,
    0:16:03 and that’s what the reality of bootstrapping a business
    0:16:04 actually looks like.
    0:16:06 – You were doing the manufacturing during the day
    0:16:07 and trying to figure that out at night.
    0:16:11 You were doing all the admin work, all the marketing.
    0:16:13 That’s often, my friend Brent Beshore
    0:16:15 calls this the ceiling of brute force.
    0:16:18 And it’s where a lot of businesses get stuck,
    0:16:19 a lot of small businesses.
    0:16:23 It’s the limitation on the entrepreneur.
    0:16:25 And how did you decide when to hire people,
    0:16:28 when to go big, when to take the next step?
    0:16:31 – You as an entrepreneur have to really understand
    0:16:33 your business if you want to be able to scale
    0:16:34 and do anything big.
    0:16:38 And it’s almost impossible, in my opinion,
    0:16:41 especially when you’re smaller, to hire somebody
    0:16:43 that’s going to build the systems that you need
    0:16:45 to really do something big.
    0:16:47 And you kind of have to do it yourself.
    0:16:49 And at least that has been my experience.
    0:16:52 And, you know, I think that it sounds great to say,
    0:16:54 “Hey, I’m just going to go and hire somebody
    0:16:56 “to do all of these things.”
    0:16:58 But the reality is that if you really want
    0:17:00 to do something big, and if you want to do something
    0:17:03 different that there’s not an established playbook for,
    0:17:05 which is what we have done,
    0:17:10 then it’s your responsibility as the entrepreneur
    0:17:12 to go and figure all of that out.
    0:17:16 And, you know, we have a mutual friend and Dr. Garner,
    0:17:17 and I actually have been working with her
    0:17:22 for about two years now, and I’ve really enjoyed that.
    0:17:25 But the one thing that she and I have been talking
    0:17:29 about a lot lately is that, you know,
    0:17:33 I think that I’m at my best when I’m out there,
    0:17:36 you know, building new systems, new frameworks,
    0:17:39 and getting them started to the point
    0:17:40 that, and solidified to the point
    0:17:42 that then I can bring in other people
    0:17:47 to actually manage them and improve them going forward.
    0:17:50 And so that’s the framework that I like to think about it.
    0:17:52 And, you know, I only know my lived experience.
    0:17:55 I don’t know how other people live this stuff.
    0:17:57 But I think the fact that I understand
    0:18:00 our finance function, I understand our marketing function,
    0:18:02 I understand our manufacturing and operations function,
    0:18:05 I understand our shipping function,
    0:18:09 all with a great level of detail puts me in a position
    0:18:11 that if you want to go and hire all of that out
    0:18:14 for your business, and you want to compete with me,
    0:18:15 you’re gonna struggle.
    0:18:18 But it doesn’t mean I do all of those things now.
    0:18:22 And I have a great team, and I’ve really worked hard
    0:18:25 at building a management team in the last couple of years
    0:18:28 to allow me to build, you know,
    0:18:31 to grow and build this business.
    0:18:33 But I think as an entrepreneur,
    0:18:35 if you really want to grow a business,
    0:18:37 then it ultimately is your responsibility
    0:18:40 to go and figure out the systems and processes
    0:18:41 you need to grow.
    0:18:42 If you just want to maintain a business,
    0:18:44 that’s a very different calculus.
    0:18:45 But if you really want to grow,
    0:18:47 then I think you as an entrepreneur
    0:18:48 have to take on that responsibility.
    0:18:50 – Well, let’s walk through a particular example.
    0:18:52 So you’re doing all the functions,
    0:18:55 and then what was the key role you hired first?
    0:18:57 And I want to walk through how you hired them.
    0:18:59 Did you hire somebody who’s done this at scale before?
    0:19:00 Did you hire somebody who,
    0:19:03 like what were you looking for?
    0:19:05 Maybe it’s a COO, maybe it’s a CFO.
    0:19:07 What was that first role?
    0:19:08 And how did you decide,
    0:19:10 I want somebody who’s done this at 100 minutes,
    0:19:12 ’cause you’re trying to build a billion dollar business.
    0:19:14 – Am I trying, I want to do it.
    0:19:16 But I just, I hate the word trying.
    0:19:17 It’s a pet peeve of mine.
    0:19:19 But yes, I intend to build a–
    0:19:20 – I love that you corrected me.
    0:19:23 – I intend to build more than a billion dollar business.
    0:19:24 Honestly, I think, you know,
    0:19:26 I intend to build the roles leading
    0:19:27 into our air quality company,
    0:19:29 which I think is a $10 billion plus opportunity
    0:19:30 for a business easily.
    0:19:33 I’ve scaled from zero to $250 million a year.
    0:19:36 And, you know, in the next five to 10 years,
    0:19:38 I intend to take that to a billion dollars plus.
    0:19:40 You know, I don’t like putting any exact timeline on it
    0:19:42 because I don’t believe that, you know,
    0:19:44 that is even that helpful,
    0:19:46 but that is the trajectory that we’re on.
    0:19:48 And, you know, like,
    0:19:49 I think we need to have an honest discussion
    0:19:51 about what you’re talking about,
    0:19:54 because I am not the poster child you’re gonna put up
    0:19:58 for great hiring practices for management teams.
    0:20:00 – I don’t want the poster child, I want the raw role.
    0:20:02 – You know, the reality is,
    0:20:04 I’ve been in this business for 12 years.
    0:20:06 And basically there’s one person there
    0:20:08 that I hired four years ago
    0:20:09 and they were my first marketing hire.
    0:20:12 So like I’d had some people
    0:20:14 that had kind of helped along the way.
    0:20:16 So like, you know, somebody’s watching this.
    0:20:19 Like there were a few other people that came in and out,
    0:20:21 but I effectively did all of the marketing
    0:20:23 for the first eight years.
    0:20:27 And, you know, so then the last four years,
    0:20:29 you know, I’ve slowly been offloading pieces
    0:20:30 and pieces of it,
    0:20:32 but I’m still heavily involved
    0:20:35 in our marketing function as an example.
    0:20:38 But, you know, now, like 18 months ago,
    0:20:42 I hired a CMO to be our chief marketing officer
    0:20:45 that oversees our marketing team.
    0:20:49 And she was probably the first of the higher level hires
    0:20:53 that I actually made, and she’s still with us today.
    0:20:56 And, you know, late last year and early this year,
    0:21:01 I really focused on recruiting and learning
    0:21:02 how to build management teams.
    0:21:05 I studied a lot of, you know,
    0:21:08 the operating systems that you hear people talk about,
    0:21:10 like traction or the Rockefeller habits,
    0:21:13 you know, which have a lot of similarities and overlap.
    0:21:16 And really, you know, did a lot of soul searching
    0:21:20 about like, how am I going to put together
    0:21:22 the management team for me going forward?
    0:21:26 And I worked with a couple of recruiters
    0:21:31 and hired a CFO and a VP of ops
    0:21:35 to handle both the finance and the operations function
    0:21:40 that have been with me for, you know, six to eight months now.
    0:21:43 And I’m very happy with how we’re, you know,
    0:21:46 how that’s progressing, but it’s really very recently
    0:21:50 that I’ve really started to figure out
    0:21:53 how to do what I would call management level hiring.
    0:21:56 You know, over the years, like I have people
    0:21:58 that are in charge of manufacturing facilities
    0:21:59 when that’s where a lot of our people are.
    0:22:02 So like it’s more hiring and then training
    0:22:04 rather than hiring people that have experience
    0:22:05 because nobody has experience doing
    0:22:07 exactly what we’re doing.
    0:22:10 So I’ve done it, but you know, I’ve had people
    0:22:12 that have been in place in each of our manufacturing facilities
    0:22:15 that have been important to keeping our operational piece
    0:22:18 of our business in check.
    0:22:20 And that’s really where I spent most of my time and energy.
    0:22:24 And until recently, I largely did all the higher level
    0:22:25 management functions.
    0:22:30 I built all of the systems that do our finance and accounting.
    0:22:31 – I wanna come back to the systems,
    0:22:33 but I really wanna get specific on like,
    0:22:36 how did you identify you’re building a huge company?
    0:22:38 How do you identify the talent?
    0:22:40 Is it somebody who’s done this before
    0:22:43 at a different scale, the scale you’re trying to reach?
    0:22:47 Or is it somebody that has different traits
    0:22:49 that you’re looking for or?
    0:22:51 – I think that it evolves over time,
    0:22:54 but you, how I think about it now
    0:22:55 and where I found success.
    0:22:57 And I’ve worked with a lot with Dr. Garner about this,
    0:23:02 actually, but I realized you need to find people
    0:23:04 that have done the task that you’re looking
    0:23:07 to get done today or before.
    0:23:09 At least maybe it rhymes, maybe it’s not exactly.
    0:23:12 But like, if you want to hire a CFO, for example,
    0:23:16 I want to find somebody that has done the things
    0:23:18 that I know we are lacking before.
    0:23:20 And so like in my example, I hired a CFO
    0:23:22 that came from U.S. foods
    0:23:24 that has a lot of distribution,
    0:23:27 managing distribution centers experience
    0:23:28 and really cost accounting
    0:23:32 and understanding, zero base budgeting
    0:23:33 and this kind of stuff.
    0:23:35 That’s what we were lacking, that’s what we needed.
    0:23:37 And so I went out and I searched for somebody
    0:23:39 that had done exactly that before.
    0:23:43 And that is how I chose him
    0:23:47 and he’s been successful in his role with us so far.
    0:23:51 So I do think that historically I have made the mistake
    0:23:55 of hiring aspirationally because if I like somebody
    0:23:57 or I think, oh, they’ve got a lot of good energy
    0:24:00 and a lot of potential, then I have been burned
    0:24:04 by that so many times in my career.
    0:24:06 And I really had to take a step back a bit.
    0:24:08 And I think it’s, for me at least,
    0:24:13 hiring somebody that’s done what I’m looking to solve
    0:24:17 before is really kind of an important factor for me.
    0:24:22 But that doesn’t mean that you cannot then grow those people
    0:24:25 or mentor those people or bring them up into other things.
    0:24:27 And I’ve had some success with that,
    0:24:29 but I think that I’ve made the mistake historically
    0:24:32 of hiring aspirationally when I think
    0:24:35 that you’re much better off or at least I’m much better off
    0:24:37 hiring somebody that’s already solved the problem
    0:24:39 that I’ve already noticed I need to solve.
    0:24:41 – And is it important that they’ve solved that recently
    0:24:44 or is it just that they’ve solved it before?
    0:24:46 Is there a nuance there?
    0:24:51 – I gravitate towards people that are high energy
    0:24:55 and really looking to grow and build something big.
    0:24:59 I mean, I’m a big believer in culture fit
    0:25:01 being super important because part of the reason
    0:25:03 why I do all these videos, I want people to know who I am
    0:25:07 and know that I’m looking to grow quickly
    0:25:09 and looking to do big things.
    0:25:11 And I need people that are excited by that.
    0:25:16 And so generally what I found is people that fit that mold,
    0:25:20 you know, have had some type of recent experience
    0:25:22 of doing something similar to what I’m doing.
    0:25:25 And then they are, you know, they gravitate towards us
    0:25:27 because they feel a little bit stuck
    0:25:31 and they want to be able to grow and do more.
    0:25:34 And that’s really the type of person that I think
    0:25:38 I’ve found to be most successful in working with me at least.
    0:25:44 – Are you crushing your bills?
    0:25:46 Defeating your monthly payments.
    0:25:48 Sounds like you’re at the top of your financial game.
    0:25:53 Rise to it with the Beamol Eclipse Rise Visa card,
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    0:26:13 but just don’t have the time to invest on your own?
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    0:26:17 doesn’t mean you should pay high fees
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    0:26:37 – We’re down like eight levels in the inception here.
    0:26:38 I want to come back to marketing in a second,
    0:26:40 but what have you worked with Dr. Garner?
    0:26:42 What are the lessons that you’ve learned
    0:26:45 in terms of management level hiring?
    0:26:48 – The most important thing that I get from her,
    0:26:52 and I would recommend for anybody to consider,
    0:26:56 is first of all, I’m a bootstrapped entrepreneur.
    0:26:58 I own my old business, I don’t have a board of directors,
    0:27:02 and so I don’t have accountability that’s baked in, right?
    0:27:04 And I ultimately have the power
    0:27:06 to make effectively any decision within my business,
    0:27:10 and that’s great, super important for me,
    0:27:13 but also accountability is very important,
    0:27:17 and having her in my life was me forcing that accountability,
    0:27:19 or one of the ways that I was forcing that accountability,
    0:27:22 because I know if I tell her in a week
    0:27:25 that I’m going to focus on X, Y, or Z next week,
    0:27:27 that she’s going to be asking about it
    0:27:29 the next week or asking for an update,
    0:27:32 and I want to be able to deliver on that,
    0:27:34 because that’s just how I’m built.
    0:27:38 And so for me, the most important thing with her
    0:27:40 has been building that accountability.
    0:27:44 But then the second part of it is having somebody
    0:27:48 to bounce around things that are maybe going on in my head,
    0:27:52 and help me to become self-aware about what I deep down know
    0:27:55 the right answer is, because I think so often,
    0:27:59 we know in our gut the actions that we need to be taking,
    0:28:03 and they say that the easiest person to fool is yourself
    0:28:05 at the end of the day, and so it’s so easy
    0:28:09 to talk yourself into believing things
    0:28:12 that you want to believe, but maybe that’s a little bit
    0:28:14 different than what you know the truth actually is,
    0:28:18 and by talking it out with her every week,
    0:28:21 then it allows me to get to that truth,
    0:28:23 and make those decisions quicker, I think.
    0:28:26 And so when you talk about management-level hiring,
    0:28:30 she’s been super important for me in figuring that out,
    0:28:33 and part of the reason why I feel so comfortable
    0:28:35 going public with everything is I feel like
    0:28:37 I’m really getting better at that,
    0:28:39 and really have a solid team around me
    0:28:43 that can help me to achieve these bigger goals.
    0:28:46 But I think the biggest thing that she brought to that
    0:28:49 was forcing me to be honest with myself
    0:28:54 in conversation every week about what really the root cause
    0:28:57 of maybe a problem is, or what I’ve maybe overlooked
    0:29:00 in the past in examples where this has gone poorly,
    0:29:02 and we examine those, and she forces me
    0:29:05 to articulate those, and oftentimes by the end
    0:29:10 of an hour-long conversation, I’ve come to the conclusion
    0:29:13 myself just because I have somebody to talk about it with,
    0:29:15 and because I don’t really have anybody else
    0:29:19 to talk about those types of problems, or with,
    0:29:24 or in a detailed way, and she’s been very key
    0:29:30 in allowing me to kind of have that self-exploration
    0:29:32 in a very thoughtful way.
    0:29:34 – I want to come back up one level here you mentioned earlier
    0:29:36 that you’ve been studying how to build
    0:29:38 operating systems for companies.
    0:29:40 Walk me through some of the different models
    0:29:42 and what you think about them.
    0:29:44 – Oh, that’s a good question.
    0:29:48 I don’t know that I’m the right guy to exactly walk you
    0:29:51 through how attraction works, or how Rockefeller habits work,
    0:29:56 but my general sense, or my takeaway from them
    0:29:59 is you have some that are way more rigid,
    0:30:03 and others that are more pushing responsibility
    0:30:08 down through your teams, you have some that are
    0:30:13 very rigid about recommending only X number of people
    0:30:18 can report up to one person, and they hold them closely,
    0:30:22 and then I look at it in the context of a business
    0:30:25 like ours, where we do so many different things
    0:30:27 that it really actually makes no sense.
    0:30:30 How I look at it is like I look at everybody
    0:30:33 has a different opinion on how you structure meetings,
    0:30:35 how many meetings you should have,
    0:30:38 how formal you should be around those meetings.
    0:30:39 – So where did you land on this?
    0:30:41 What’s your business operating system?
    0:30:44 – For me, it’s different based off departments,
    0:30:46 because like every department is different,
    0:30:48 and that was kind of the nuanced thing that I found.
    0:30:50 So like how we operate within our marketing department
    0:30:52 is very different than how we operate
    0:30:55 in our manufacturing facilities, for instance.
    0:30:58 And so I have one person who I should mention
    0:31:00 is I have a chief of staff named Karan,
    0:31:05 who actually gave me COVID on her second day of the job,
    0:31:10 when I had hired her here in New York just before COVID,
    0:31:11 just before the COVID lockdowns,
    0:31:13 and we always laugh because she gave me COVID,
    0:31:16 and she was my executive assistant at the time,
    0:31:19 and then was very instrumental in helping me manage
    0:31:23 the people part of our business through COVID up to now.
    0:31:26 And so now she has the title of chief of staff.
    0:31:30 And so she’s the one that would kind of be responsible
    0:31:33 for helping me in this organizational structure, more or less.
    0:31:37 And so we really in the last couple of years
    0:31:40 have started to outline
    0:31:43 how we expect different departments
    0:31:44 to operate and behave.
    0:31:46 And it’s like in our manufacturing,
    0:31:48 where like some of our manufacturing plants
    0:31:51 have 350 people or whatnot there
    0:31:54 that do various functions from shipping
    0:31:57 to actually manufacturing to material management
    0:31:58 and this kind of stuff.
    0:32:02 We actually built out a model for that specifically
    0:32:06 that works for us with the performance reviews
    0:32:10 and they’re geared towards that type of employee,
    0:32:12 but then we actually have a different
    0:32:16 kind of more traditional traction-like framework
    0:32:18 for some of our other departments,
    0:32:19 like our marketing department,
    0:32:21 where we’re really working on,
    0:32:23 I guess they call them rocks and traction,
    0:32:26 but like we have certain goals and objectives
    0:32:30 that we are looking to meet on a quarterly basis
    0:32:31 and on a yearly basis.
    0:32:33 And we have a three to five year plan
    0:32:35 and we operate within those departments
    0:32:37 more on that type of model.
    0:32:39 But the thing that I think is actually most important
    0:32:41 or the thing that was most impactful for me
    0:32:44 that I took away from all of these operating systems
    0:32:47 was it all starts with a clear vision
    0:32:50 and a clear mission for the business
    0:32:53 that then has to roll down to all of the people
    0:32:56 that are working for that business.
    0:32:58 And I think one of the things that we lacked
    0:33:01 as a business, and my big takeaway
    0:33:02 from doing all of the research
    0:33:04 around these operating systems
    0:33:06 was ultimately the operating system doesn’t matter
    0:33:09 as much as like what are you looking to accomplish.
    0:33:12 And I think that we had not done a great job
    0:33:15 of articulating that to our employees
    0:33:16 and to maybe to our customers
    0:33:18 or even to myself prior to this year
    0:33:21 because it’s like, okay, we’re an air filter company,
    0:33:24 we’re an air filter brand, what is our mission?
    0:33:26 Or is it just to manufacture air filters
    0:33:29 and ship them well and do that at scale?
    0:33:32 Is that your vision or is it more than that, right?
    0:33:36 And we had never, I never really put any thought into that.
    0:33:41 And so the first step for me after doing this research
    0:33:44 was really building out a mission statement
    0:33:45 and our values.
    0:33:49 And I spent two or three months
    0:33:51 really soul searching on that
    0:33:55 and thinking through like, what matters
    0:33:56 and like what do I want to accomplish
    0:33:59 and what do we as a company stand for
    0:34:02 and what type of people do we want to attract
    0:34:05 and how do we want to judge our people,
    0:34:08 rate our employees and whatnot.
    0:34:10 And I ultimately built out our mission statement
    0:34:13 which to build the world’s leading
    0:34:14 into air quality company more or less
    0:34:17 and we define what that means
    0:34:19 as well as the company values.
    0:34:22 And from operating system perspective,
    0:34:26 the thing that I’ve realized is the most important
    0:34:30 across all of them is your values are what allow you
    0:34:35 to coach your employees to behave in the way
    0:34:38 that you as a business value and want to stand for.
    0:34:42 And what that means is like bias to action
    0:34:44 is one of our core values
    0:34:46 and it’s a core value that I have in my life.
    0:34:50 And sometimes like if an employee makes a mistake
    0:34:54 like that it’s like, oh, Joe didn’t call me back
    0:34:57 so I therefore I couldn’t do this thing, right?
    0:34:59 Like, you know, that would be an excuse
    0:35:01 that somebody may come and give you
    0:35:02 but then you’re like, okay,
    0:35:04 how do I actually coach you on this?
    0:35:06 Because, you know, what am I supposed to say?
    0:35:10 Like he didn’t call you back so you failed, right?
    0:35:11 Oh, it’s not your fault.
    0:35:13 That would be one way of approaching it.
    0:35:14 It’s a hard thing to refute.
    0:35:16 But if you have a core principle
    0:35:18 or of core value of bias to action,
    0:35:20 then you can say, well, you know,
    0:35:22 we at Filterby have a bias to action.
    0:35:26 And like, and what that would mean is in this example,
    0:35:28 you need to call him if he didn’t call you back
    0:35:29 or you need to make sure you’re following up with him
    0:35:31 and doing everything you can to get that fixed
    0:35:32 because that’s just what we do.
    0:35:34 And we use that as an example.
    0:35:36 And so the reason the values are so important
    0:35:38 and this goes across the department
    0:35:41 is that that is what allows you to frame
    0:35:44 all of your discussions with employees
    0:35:46 or with partners or whatever the case might be
    0:35:49 in the way that you as a company
    0:35:52 or you as an organization expect.
    0:35:54 And that is why the value piece
    0:35:56 of an organizational structure
    0:35:57 or the operational structure is really,
    0:35:59 ironically, the most important.
    0:36:01 And two years ago, if you had told me that,
    0:36:03 I would have said, oh, that’s just a waste of time.
    0:36:06 Or like, why am I gonna waste my time going through this?
    0:36:09 Right, I mean, like I would not have thought much of it
    0:36:11 because I always, you know, figured,
    0:36:13 oh, I own the whole business.
    0:36:16 I’m gonna go just kind of figure it out as I go.
    0:36:19 I don’t need to be so rigid.
    0:36:21 And I think that that was a real mistake.
    0:36:23 – I think a lot of our listeners would think
    0:36:26 when you say vision statement, mission statement values,
    0:36:28 that they have the exact same skepticism
    0:36:30 that you might have had.
    0:36:32 How do you use the vision and the mission statement?
    0:36:34 Often there are things on a website or on a wall
    0:36:37 and people just like, whatever, doesn’t matter.
    0:36:40 I loved how the example of how you actually took the values
    0:36:42 and you use them to coach people
    0:36:45 and you use them to make a difference in the company.
    0:36:48 – Well, that was the big kind of aha moment for me,
    0:36:50 actually, was realizing we actually had a problem
    0:36:52 with a particular person when I was doing,
    0:36:54 when I was building these values
    0:36:56 and just kind of, you know, going through the motions
    0:37:00 with it, we had a problem with an employee that,
    0:37:02 you know, on the surface, you would say,
    0:37:05 well, you know, was there really anything
    0:37:07 they could have done?
    0:37:09 But like, I knew like there were actions
    0:37:11 that they could have taken that, you know,
    0:37:14 would have taken a little more effort
    0:37:16 to get it done, not that, well, you know,
    0:37:18 this is the great example where, you know,
    0:37:21 if we have a biased action in this example
    0:37:23 as a core value, it’s a coaching moment
    0:37:25 where we can say, hey, you know, this is what we stand for.
    0:37:27 This is what is important.
    0:37:32 You’re going to be reviewed on these values that we have.
    0:37:35 And we take them seriously, then all of a sudden
    0:37:39 that gives you a way to frame it with an employee.
    0:37:42 But the reality is that in my example,
    0:37:45 like, they’re so personal to me.
    0:37:47 And so like, I’ve been able to build this business
    0:37:49 on my own and, you know, I think that’s unique
    0:37:51 and I would not recommend it for most people.
    0:37:52 I actually think for most people,
    0:37:54 or I don’t know what’s right for most people.
    0:37:56 I only know what’s right for me.
    0:37:59 And so once I realized that, you know,
    0:38:03 I could kind of personalize it and then get buy-in
    0:38:05 from the people around me that,
    0:38:08 because they saw how these values that we exhibited
    0:38:11 were the differentiator for us in growing this business.
    0:38:14 And we have tangible examples around each of those.
    0:38:15 Once I got the buy-in from that,
    0:38:18 then it’s much easier to articulate and show
    0:38:20 to everybody within the company
    0:38:22 that, hey, we actually take these seriously.
    0:38:26 And we give out an employee of the month award now
    0:38:28 that we started earlier this year,
    0:38:29 where we highlight somebody
    0:38:32 that actually exhibited one of our core values.
    0:38:34 We pick a different core value every month
    0:38:36 and we find somebody that actually exhibited that
    0:38:39 and use that as a kind of coaching mechanism
    0:38:41 or as a way just to reward somebody
    0:38:44 who is living up to our values.
    0:38:48 And so like, once I realized how powerful that could be,
    0:38:52 then I really became, I really bought into it.
    0:38:55 But the key is they have to really be true.
    0:38:57 Like, you can’t just make them up.
    0:38:59 I think that so many people go through the exercise
    0:39:02 and it’s aspirational and it’s great to be aspirational,
    0:39:05 but if you’re not willing to actually live by that,
    0:39:08 you yourself first, but then also,
    0:39:11 if you have somebody that maybe is a high performer,
    0:39:14 but is clearly not consistent with your values,
    0:39:16 you have to be willing to part ways with them,
    0:39:18 even if that’s going to be tough for a while
    0:39:19 for your company.
    0:39:22 And we take it to that level of extreme
    0:39:25 because it’s, to me, it’s extremely important.
    0:39:27 And I think if you want to be successful with this,
    0:39:30 that you have to have that level of commitment.
    0:39:32 – I want to rewind a little bit back to when you were doing
    0:39:34 all the jobs you were traveling,
    0:39:36 you were spending all week in the factory,
    0:39:39 and then at night, you’re sort of doing the other stuff.
    0:39:40 You did, you came from Goldman.
    0:39:43 You didn’t know anything about DTC marketing.
    0:39:45 How did you, how did you learn marketing?
    0:39:49 – It’s not 100% true in that I’ve been an entrepreneur
    0:39:51 since I was probably 10 years old.
    0:39:56 And I was born in 1983 and really came of age in the ’90s
    0:39:58 when the internet was just starting to come up.
    0:40:01 And so I always had side hustles
    0:40:03 and things that I was working on.
    0:40:07 And in my teenage years, I was basically assembling computers
    0:40:09 and selling them on eBay.
    0:40:13 And my eBay screen name was Momentum Corp.
    0:40:16 And I’ve always been a believer in momentum,
    0:40:17 I guess, from the early days.
    0:40:21 And I just think momentum in life and in businesses
    0:40:26 is so important and I fight to maintain momentum always.
    0:40:28 And at any time I lose momentum, I hate it,
    0:40:30 but then I remember I got to go in
    0:40:32 and create that momentum again.
    0:40:34 We can maybe dig into that later.
    0:40:38 But I always was kind of tinkering around
    0:40:41 with online businesses.
    0:40:46 And actually in 2007, I had just moved to the trading desk
    0:40:51 from my economics research desk.
    0:40:54 And that was the beginning of the financial crisis.
    0:40:57 And I saw a lot of turmoil
    0:41:01 and saw a lot of people around me starting to get fired.
    0:41:04 And I was convinced I was gonna lose my job.
    0:41:07 And my wife was in medical school at the time.
    0:41:10 And we had not taken on any debt for her medical school
    0:41:11 because I was paying for it.
    0:41:15 And I was determined not to take on any debt.
    0:41:18 And I started a side hustle
    0:41:22 where I was effectively an affiliate for StubHub.
    0:41:24 And it was quite scammy what I was doing.
    0:41:27 I was using Craigslist as a traffic source
    0:41:29 where I had a team of guys in Vietnam
    0:41:32 who were helping me to basically spam Craigslist
    0:41:34 to get traffic to a site
    0:41:36 that then ultimately would lead them to StubHub.
    0:41:38 And I would get a commission.
    0:41:42 But in 2008, I made about half a million dollars that year.
    0:41:46 Just on the side hustle, doing affiliate marketing.
    0:41:48 And at the time, I realized
    0:41:51 that there’s obviously a lot of money to be made
    0:41:52 in this kind of world.
    0:41:54 Wouldn’t it be great if I owned the whole offer?
    0:41:56 Like rather than being an affiliate,
    0:41:58 if I owned my own product, so to speak.
    0:42:01 And I started a company called My Office Delivered
    0:42:05 where we were effectively drop shipping office supplies.
    0:42:10 And in 2009, sold six and a half million dollars or so
    0:42:13 of office supplies primarily on Amazon.
    0:42:16 And when I looked at the actual underlying data of it,
    0:42:21 about 60% of that was either air filters
    0:42:24 from a small company in Creole, Alabama called Filters Now
    0:42:26 or in cartridges.
    0:42:27 Those were the two big markets
    0:42:30 or the two big things that drove a large portion
    0:42:32 of our revenue.
    0:42:34 So then fast forward into 2009,
    0:42:37 like my, the financial crisis ended up being great for me
    0:42:39 from a career perspective.
    0:42:42 And I got promoted and my career really took off
    0:42:43 and I ended up shutting down that business
    0:42:48 because I didn’t have the energy to continue to do both.
    0:42:50 So I shut it down.
    0:42:53 But the reason I give you that answer
    0:42:57 and it’s something I talk about a lot with people is,
    0:42:59 you know, people always talk about money
    0:43:02 being the limiting factor in starting a business
    0:43:03 or doing something new.
    0:43:06 And I think that the reality is the limiting factor
    0:43:09 for most people is the skills and the curiosity.
    0:43:14 And I, from an early age, was building those skills,
    0:43:16 building the online marketing skills,
    0:43:18 building the entrepreneurial skills
    0:43:21 that ultimately I’m still honing today.
    0:43:23 And it’s just been an evolution
    0:43:24 over that long period of time.
    0:43:29 So it was something I was curious about from an early age
    0:43:33 and, you know, kept tinkering and figuring it out.
    0:43:36 And so like by the time I actually started the business,
    0:43:39 it was just a culmination of me,
    0:43:41 of all of those skills that I had already started to build.
    0:43:43 And then I just continued to build them
    0:43:46 and I see opportunity and I lean into that opportunity.
    0:43:49 And I think that that is the reality
    0:43:52 of how most successful people operate.
    0:43:54 And I think that, you know,
    0:43:56 people are always looking for that cheat code
    0:43:59 or, you know, that, that aha moment
    0:44:02 that’s going to then change their life forever.
    0:44:04 And, you know, if that happens for people,
    0:44:07 I’ve certainly never experienced it.
    0:44:10 For me, it’s more of a slow evolution
    0:44:13 and a compounding of skills
    0:44:17 and a compounding of knowledge over a long period of time.
    0:44:21 But with a consistent focus
    0:44:23 that’s long-term that is immutable.
    0:44:25 And I think it’s so hard for people
    0:44:27 to hold both of those things to be true.
    0:44:28 I know it’s been hard for me in the past,
    0:44:31 but it takes a long time to compound
    0:44:34 to something meaningful and for skills to compound.
    0:44:37 And, you know, it’s easy to get impatient,
    0:44:40 but if you do it over a long period of time,
    0:44:42 you’ll be shocked how far you can go.
    0:44:44 But it would not be fair to say,
    0:44:46 oh, I just woke up and learned marketing skills on this day.
    0:44:49 It was something that I had been interested in
    0:44:52 and kind of toyed around with for years
    0:44:54 and ultimately honed them more and more.
    0:44:57 I still am homing them today.
    0:45:00 You know, it’s a never-ending process.
    0:45:02 – So let’s talk about marketing.
    0:45:02 What does that look like?
    0:45:04 Is it Amazon, Google?
    0:45:06 I mean, I would assume people have intent
    0:45:07 when they’re buying a filter.
    0:45:10 How do you think about marketing and branding?
    0:45:11 – Yeah, so branding and marketing
    0:45:13 are two very different things to me.
    0:45:16 And, you know, we can go as deep as you’d like on it.
    0:45:19 But I actually would like to start with the brand
    0:45:23 a little bit in that I, from the very beginning,
    0:45:25 was focused on building a brand.
    0:45:28 To me, like if you look at any big company
    0:45:31 that stands the test of time or has, you know,
    0:45:34 real value is really the brand.
    0:45:37 You know, nobody is searching for or,
    0:45:39 there are people that are searching for shoes
    0:45:41 and there are people that are searching for Nike.
    0:45:44 You want to own the company that is Nike
    0:45:46 because then people, you have no competition
    0:45:47 if somebody is searching for Nike.
    0:45:49 They’re only looking for you.
    0:45:50 If there’s somebody searching for shoes
    0:45:52 and you have to compete with all those people
    0:45:56 that are selling shoes, that’s a much harder game
    0:45:59 and not likely to be to stand the test of time.
    0:46:02 And so I recognized that early on
    0:46:05 and it was important to me to build a brand.
    0:46:08 But you don’t build a brand overnight.
    0:46:09 It’s much like a reputation.
    0:46:10 It takes a lifetime to build
    0:46:13 and it takes a second to ruin, you know?
    0:46:15 And that’s just true.
    0:46:18 But from the beginning, you know, we really focused on,
    0:46:22 I really focused on branding and, you know,
    0:46:24 there’s lots of nuances that go into that
    0:46:27 but as simple things like how we package
    0:46:30 all of our products and a lot of our competitors,
    0:46:33 especially early on, didn’t do any packaging at all.
    0:46:36 They were just putting generic filters into a box
    0:46:39 and we’ve really gotten more and more,
    0:46:41 much better over the years.
    0:46:43 I really differentiating within our brand
    0:46:45 and we’ve actually rolled out some new media
    0:46:48 with Kimberley Clark to do it
    0:46:52 and we really kind of innovated and worked to make sure
    0:46:55 that we have a best in class product
    0:46:59 that people see, they resonate with it
    0:47:01 and ultimately led us to launching a Walmart
    0:47:04 two and a half months ago, which retail I think
    0:47:06 is something you may want to double click on later.
    0:47:11 Anyways, you know, branding was extremely important
    0:47:13 to me from the beginning.
    0:47:18 And, you know, marketing to me is anything
    0:47:21 to raise awareness about that brand.
    0:47:23 But marketing without a good product
    0:47:27 or without a good experience is completely wasteful
    0:47:32 because especially if you’re in a high customer acquisition
    0:47:35 you know, type business that you need that recurring revenue
    0:47:38 or that repeat revenue in order to be able to make it
    0:47:41 into a business, you have to have a good product
    0:47:42 and a good customer experience.
    0:47:46 So a brand all starts with that, just like a reputation.
    0:47:48 It’s like, you know, building that over a long period
    0:47:51 of time and all the elements that go into that.
    0:47:54 But then, you know, from a marketing perspective
    0:47:57 the business originally was built almost exclusively
    0:48:00 on what I would call intent based marketing.
    0:48:04 And so, you know, basically if you search for air filter
    0:48:06 or any iteration of an air filter like 20 by 20
    0:48:10 by one air filter or 20 by 25 by five air filter
    0:48:14 or furnace filter or AC filter, HVAC filter on Google
    0:48:19 or Amazon or Bing, then, you know, you’re going to see us.
    0:48:21 And that’s been the case for about a decade.
    0:48:25 Early on my strategy was I wanted to suck all the oxygen
    0:48:27 out of the market in that, you know,
    0:48:29 I knew we were vertically integrated
    0:48:34 and that means that our cost of delivering a product
    0:48:36 to a customer is as cheap or cheaper
    0:48:38 than anybody else’s possibly could be.
    0:48:41 That’s part of the nuance of our business model
    0:48:44 because, you know, we are completely vertically integrated
    0:48:46 and, you know, we’re really in the logistics business
    0:48:47 not the air filter business.
    0:48:50 If you manufacture an air filter for about $2
    0:48:53 and sell it on average for 12, you know,
    0:48:57 unfortunately that’s not all just profit between the two.
    0:48:59 There’s a lot of logistics involved
    0:49:01 in getting that product to the end customer.
    0:49:04 But because we’ve optimized all of that, you know,
    0:49:06 I know that there’s basically nobody
    0:49:09 that can compete with us on price
    0:49:11 if that was a deciding factor
    0:49:13 that I wanted to go on and compete on.
    0:49:15 We don’t compete on price, it’s just not something,
    0:49:16 you don’t build a brand that way.
    0:49:19 But I knew that because of that,
    0:49:23 I had the kind of staying power from a marketing perspective
    0:49:25 and an intent-based marketing perspective
    0:49:28 to suck all the oxygen out of the rest of the market.
    0:49:32 And I did that even when it was hard early on,
    0:49:35 but I knew that if you were searching for an air filter
    0:49:40 or something related that we needed to be the obvious choice
    0:49:44 based off of the, you know, taking over all the ad spots
    0:49:47 that would be related to that.
    0:49:51 And so that was effectively the marketing strategy
    0:49:56 that got us to where we are today, more or less, right?
    0:49:59 I mean, that combined with great product, quick delivery,
    0:50:02 great branding, great quality, you know,
    0:50:06 all of those things combined with the sucking all the oxygen
    0:50:09 out of that intent-based marketing world
    0:50:11 is how we built the brand we have today.
    0:50:14 I mean, you fast forward now, you know, on Amazon,
    0:50:17 we know because, you know, we have access to the data
    0:50:18 that’s pretty public.
    0:50:22 Between one and four and one and three filters purchased
    0:50:24 in the furnace filter category on Amazon is one of ours.
    0:50:28 So like we’ve really taken a ton of market share
    0:50:30 in that specific category,
    0:50:32 just off of that long-term marketing strategy.
    0:50:35 – How do you think about turning an Amazon customer
    0:50:37 where you don’t get the data yourself or do you?
    0:50:38 Are you shipping?
    0:50:39 Are you doing all the logistics?
    0:50:42 – We fulfill 100% of our orders on Amazon.
    0:50:44 – So you get all the customer data.
    0:50:46 – I mean, we get their address,
    0:50:48 I mean, we have to ship it to them.
    0:50:49 – Do you get their email address and stuff?
    0:50:51 – No, you don’t get their email address.
    0:50:52 But I know the question you’re asking
    0:50:55 and I think it’s the wrong question and I’ll tell you why.
    0:51:01 If you are a brand, if you’re a CPG brand,
    0:51:03 your goal should be to sell and be
    0:51:05 wherever your customers are.
    0:51:09 And I shouldn’t care where you buy my product.
    0:51:11 I just want you to be buying my product.
    0:51:15 And so like 60% of product searches start on Amazon.
    0:51:16 That’s just a fact.
    0:51:21 So like if you are selling a product that you,
    0:51:23 for whatever reason say,
    0:51:25 oh, I don’t want to sell on Amazon,
    0:51:29 then you are basically ignoring 60% of your potential buyers.
    0:51:33 And so like from the beginning and a big motivation for me
    0:51:35 starting this business and the way that I did
    0:51:39 is I wanted to build a brand and a product
    0:51:41 that I could work with companies like Amazon
    0:51:44 rather than trying to compete with them.
    0:51:47 And when you own a brand and you own all of your manufacturing,
    0:51:50 then we’re in a unique position to be able to do that.
    0:51:53 And it goes back to that earlier experience I had.
    0:51:56 I told you in 2009, a long time ago,
    0:51:58 we sold six and a half or I sold six and a half million
    0:52:03 dollars of office supplies on, primarily on Amazon.
    0:52:05 Like that was where I saw all these people were buying stuff.
    0:52:08 And so to me, the opportunity was,
    0:52:12 I want to find a product that I can sustainably sell
    0:52:13 on Amazon as a channel
    0:52:15 because I know that that’s where the customers are.
    0:52:19 And so I think anybody that kids themselves and says,
    0:52:21 oh, you know, I’m too good to sell on Amazon
    0:52:24 or I want to ignore it, it’s just incredibly naive.
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    0:52:49 – A lot of people spend a lot of time going,
    0:52:51 yes, I want to be on the Amazon channel,
    0:52:54 but then I want to take that person that buys on Amazon
    0:52:56 and convert them into a direct relationship
    0:52:59 because with Amazon, I don’t own the relationship
    0:53:00 with the customer.
    0:53:02 Amazon is the middle person.
    0:53:04 And for better or worse, and I don’t have an opinion
    0:53:07 on this because I don’t sell on Amazon at all.
    0:53:09 They want to take that and have a direct relationship
    0:53:10 with that consumer.
    0:53:12 How do you think about that?
    0:53:15 – Early on I would spend some time thinking about that.
    0:53:19 And honestly, I realized at least in our case,
    0:53:21 and maybe everybody’s different, it’s a fool’s errand.
    0:53:24 I mean, it’s like, there’s a reason why customers choose
    0:53:25 to buy on Amazon.
    0:53:27 I mean, there’s a funny story.
    0:53:29 She’ll maybe get mad at me for telling it,
    0:53:31 but I will about two years ago,
    0:53:33 we needed some air filters at our house
    0:53:36 and my wife actually ordered our air filters on Amazon.
    0:53:38 And it really irritated me at the time
    0:53:40 because I said, how in the world, why in the world
    0:53:43 would you go on Amazon and buy our air filters?
    0:53:46 But for her, she was just doing a chore
    0:53:49 and she was looking for the easiest way to,
    0:53:50 she wanted to solve that problem
    0:53:53 and we buy a lot of stuff on Amazon.
    0:53:55 And so she just went and clicked order on Amazon.
    0:53:58 And so that’s my wife that made the decision
    0:54:00 to go and buy our product on Amazon.
    0:54:05 So I quite frankly gave up on spending any energy
    0:54:08 and worrying about it.
    0:54:10 I’m focused on building our brand
    0:54:13 and making the best products we can
    0:54:15 and giving the best customer experience we can.
    0:54:19 And if people choose to buy on Amazon, then that’s great.
    0:54:20 I don’t care where people buy us.
    0:54:22 Early on, I thought I would never get into retail
    0:54:23 to be honest with you.
    0:54:26 And here I am, we just launched in 505 Walmart’s
    0:54:30 and really have a big retail strategy going forward.
    0:54:34 84% of retail transactions still happen in store.
    0:54:36 So I can sit here and say,
    0:54:39 oh, I’m just going to sell online
    0:54:42 because I want to be a pure direct to consumer company.
    0:54:43 And that’s fine.
    0:54:47 But to me, that is very short-sighted
    0:54:50 and you’re losing a lot of potential customers
    0:54:51 in that process.
    0:54:52 And I mean, that’s the decision that you’re making
    0:54:54 but you’d have to at least know
    0:54:55 that you are making that decision.
    0:54:58 So that’s really how I think about that
    0:55:01 is I’ve really stopped thinking about it.
    0:55:02 – I love all the detail.
    0:55:03 Thank you for this.
    0:55:04 Keep going with us.
    0:55:06 Do you outsource the marketing to somebody else
    0:55:08 or do you have it all internally
    0:55:10 and is that important and why?
    0:55:11 – It’s mostly internal.
    0:55:14 We do have an agency that we work with
    0:55:16 that I hired a few years ago
    0:55:19 that does manage some of our ad accounts
    0:55:20 that are more on autopilot
    0:55:22 but it’s just keeping best practices
    0:55:24 and keeping things together.
    0:55:26 Like I built out all of our,
    0:55:28 like all of our intent-based ad campaigns.
    0:55:30 Our budget next year is $42 million
    0:55:31 for our marketing in general.
    0:55:32 So like we’ve spent about,
    0:55:34 it’s a $42 million line item for us,
    0:55:35 at least going to next year.
    0:55:38 I think it was $38 million this year.
    0:55:39 So it’s a big line item for us
    0:55:41 and we manage most of it internally
    0:55:43 but so interesting still to me,
    0:55:45 my marketing team may not like,
    0:55:46 they let me say it,
    0:55:48 but it’s like most of that money is still built
    0:55:53 on ad campaigns that I effectively launched
    0:55:56 12 years ago when honed over that period
    0:55:58 or 10 years ago, in Amazon’s case,
    0:56:00 they wrote out their advertising a bit later
    0:56:02 but it’s not like those things
    0:56:04 have shifted all that much.
    0:56:07 One of my big goals personally,
    0:56:11 you know, like I really am going all in on brand
    0:56:13 and on building the Rosalind Indoor Air Quality Company
    0:56:15 and we’re getting into the service business
    0:56:16 and doing some other things.
    0:56:19 And so for me, the next kind of step of marketing
    0:56:24 is building top of the funnel brand awareness.
    0:56:27 And it’s part of the reason why I’m going so public now
    0:56:29 and then we’re going to start alongside me,
    0:56:32 I’m going to have people doing the same thing
    0:56:34 for the core filter by brand
    0:56:36 that may appeal to different demographics
    0:56:37 that I would appeal to.
    0:56:41 And we’re really kind of going all in on,
    0:56:43 you know, that top of funnel brand awareness.
    0:56:45 You know, we gave a Jeep away last year,
    0:56:47 we’re doing big giveaways every month
    0:56:49 and we’re doing things that are,
    0:56:51 you know, not related to air filters
    0:56:54 but that get us into a customer’s mind.
    0:56:56 That’s kind of where our marketing is going
    0:56:58 and almost all of that’s done in-house.
    0:57:01 – You mentioned retail earlier, why retail?
    0:57:02 – Well, like I just said,
    0:57:06 you know, 84% of transactions still happen in a store
    0:57:08 whether you like it or not.
    0:57:12 And I just realized that, you know,
    0:57:13 I know I keep coming back to it
    0:57:16 but I truly am mission driven, I really live that.
    0:57:18 And I just know if I want to achieve my mission
    0:57:20 that I need to be where the customers are
    0:57:23 and a lot of those customers are in retail.
    0:57:25 And as I tell the retailers, you know,
    0:57:28 they offer a very different value proposition
    0:57:28 than we do.
    0:57:30 And I think it actually, it makes sense
    0:57:33 that they exist and we exist in that, you know,
    0:57:37 for us to get our shipping economics down,
    0:57:39 we incentivize customers to buy, you know,
    0:57:41 a four or six pack at a time
    0:57:44 because that’s where you really get the best value
    0:57:46 or we can deliver the best value to a customer.
    0:57:49 So online, on average, we ship five and a half filters
    0:57:52 to a customer and any one transaction.
    0:57:55 But in retail, because it costs us the same
    0:57:56 to ship every single filter,
    0:57:58 whether it’s wrapped in four or one,
    0:58:00 it still takes up the same amount of truck space.
    0:58:04 We can give them one packs and they can compete in retail
    0:58:07 with our four pack per unit price
    0:58:09 on the one pack on the shelf.
    0:58:12 And so they’re offering a different value proposition
    0:58:13 to the customer.
    0:58:15 The customer obviously has to go then pick it up
    0:58:17 and they have to do that extra work themselves.
    0:58:18 But if they’re already there,
    0:58:21 maybe it’s something that they would like to take.
    0:58:24 But for me, also as a brand,
    0:58:28 we now are selling between 10 and 20,000 units a week
    0:58:29 in Walmart.
    0:58:34 And that’s 10 to 20,000 potential new to brand customers
    0:58:36 a week that we are reaching
    0:58:38 just in our kind of trial,
    0:58:40 505 store period in Walmart.
    0:58:42 And so as for a brand, you know,
    0:58:47 that’s a huge potential future customer acquisition channel
    0:58:48 for us, right?
    0:58:50 Because you have all these people
    0:58:53 that are now being exposed to our brand
    0:58:55 that maybe weren’t being exposed to it before.
    0:58:57 And so that’s really the motivation
    0:58:59 for going into retail.
    0:59:01 – Why do people buy air filters?
    0:59:04 Like, what makes them buy your filter over 3M?
    0:59:04 Is it price?
    0:59:05 Is it convenience?
    0:59:06 Is it…
    0:59:08 – Like how you put in versus 3M,
    0:59:10 our arch enemy, at least they think so,
    0:59:12 although we’re actually very different games.
    0:59:14 You know, there are a lot of factors
    0:59:18 and it’s a simple question that is a little more complex.
    0:59:21 Take a little bit of a step back.
    0:59:23 You know, one of the things
    0:59:26 that makes us the most unique, I think,
    0:59:30 is that we sell to both the residential
    0:59:32 and to the business to business market.
    0:59:33 So like business to business
    0:59:36 is actually our fastest growing segment now
    0:59:39 where we sell, you know, direct to hospitals, hotels,
    0:59:41 you know, gyms, you know, you name it.
    0:59:45 And, you know, all of our product that we manufacture
    0:59:48 is geared towards that commercial customer.
    0:59:52 And so it’s, you know, a, you know, higher quality
    0:59:56 beverage board and, you know, a double-sided frame
    0:59:58 and like little nuanced type things
    1:00:01 that really make it a quality product
    1:00:02 that can stand up, you know,
    1:00:04 even if it was put on an outside, you know,
    1:00:07 air handler unit, but that’s the exact same product
    1:00:12 that we’re selling to residential and to consumers.
    1:00:15 And we’re able to do that at a comparable
    1:00:18 and oftentimes cheaper price than 3M,
    1:00:20 you know, I’m not knocking them at all
    1:00:22 and not looking for a fight with it, it’s just,
    1:00:25 but they’re just, they and a lot of the other companies
    1:00:28 that sell into the residential world
    1:00:31 only sell like residential grade or filters
    1:00:34 that are not really made for that commercial use.
    1:00:38 And so when they’re putting them in stores
    1:00:42 they’re basically limiting themselves to residents,
    1:00:43 to homes, same way with online,
    1:00:46 they’re basically limiting themselves to homes.
    1:00:49 When 70% of air filtration is actually commercial.
    1:00:52 And so 70% of air filters that are purchased
    1:00:55 are purchased for a commercial setting.
    1:00:58 And so I think online, one of the reasons
    1:01:01 why we have been able to gain so much market share
    1:01:04 is because, you know, a lot of those commercial people
    1:01:07 see that and end up purchasing our product.
    1:01:09 But you combine that with the fact that, you know,
    1:01:13 we manufacture 300 different sizes as standard
    1:01:16 and we have a team, you know, an aggregate of 50 or 70 people
    1:01:19 that make custom filters all day every day.
    1:01:21 So like if you have a crazy size filter
    1:01:23 which in the US is quite common, you know,
    1:01:26 that you don’t have a, you can’t go to the store and buy.
    1:01:30 And if it’s not one of even the 300 sizes that we have
    1:01:34 then we will make it for you and still ship it same day.
    1:01:37 So you get it next day or two days depending on where you are.
    1:01:40 And so we have the infrastructure to do all of that.
    1:01:42 Whereas like the typical brands that are selling
    1:01:45 into places like Walmart may have a total
    1:01:47 of 20 different sizes that they sell
    1:01:48 and they only sell through retail
    1:01:50 and they don’t do all the rest.
    1:01:53 And the reality is that there are a lot of homes
    1:01:54 that have multiple sizes.
    1:01:57 And so if you have one odd size
    1:01:59 and you have all these other standard sizes
    1:02:00 then we ultimately get your business
    1:02:02 because we have the whole catalog
    1:02:04 and we can get it to you quicker.
    1:02:06 So there are a lot of little factors like that
    1:02:07 that make a huge difference.
    1:02:09 – Is that what you mean when you’re in a different business
    1:02:12 than 3M or is there another nuance to that?
    1:02:13 When it comes to air filters?
    1:02:16 – Yeah, so 3M best I can tell
    1:02:19 and they can refute it if they want
    1:02:23 but they mostly sell through retail
    1:02:27 so places like Walmart, Costco and whatnot.
    1:02:29 And that is their major distribution channel.
    1:02:33 And until this year we did literally zero retail.
    1:02:35 So they did that and they sell online
    1:02:37 but that’s basically the extent
    1:02:39 and when they sell online they’re basically doing it
    1:02:43 through Amazon and Walmart and other retailers
    1:02:46 which means they’re effectively trucking in product
    1:02:47 to a distribution center.
    1:02:50 Then that distribution is taking it off the truck,
    1:02:54 taking it out of the case packed boxes likely,
    1:02:55 then moving it around the country
    1:02:57 to their distribution network,
    1:02:58 then putting it back on a shelf
    1:03:01 and then picking it again and putting it in another box
    1:03:02 and sending it to an end user.
    1:03:05 All of those are steps that we do not have
    1:03:06 in our supply chain
    1:03:11 which means that the cost structure for us
    1:03:15 versus them through that network is very different.
    1:03:20 And my opinion and in my opinion
    1:03:21 that a lot of these big companies
    1:03:24 actually subsidized companies like 3M
    1:03:28 maybe unknowingly to compete on price,
    1:03:31 on online on some of these products
    1:03:33 because the economics of shipping them
    1:03:35 and putting them through their distribution networks
    1:03:36 just would not make sense.
    1:03:38 Again, that’s my opinion
    1:03:40 but I’ve studied the market pretty closely
    1:03:43 but their market is mostly retail
    1:03:48 whereas we’re traditionally directing consumer
    1:03:50 but more and more direct to businesses.
    1:03:53 And so we sell, we have school systems
    1:03:57 where we may sell $500,000 a year of filters too
    1:04:00 and we have other types of non-pleted air filter products
    1:04:04 like the V-sale HEPA filters and ring panels
    1:04:06 and other things that we don’t actually market online
    1:04:09 but we’re able to, but we manufacture
    1:04:11 to sell into B2B businesses.
    1:04:14 And so like basically the filtration market
    1:04:16 is mostly you’re either commercial
    1:04:18 and you focus on that and a lot of brands
    1:04:19 you’ve probably never heard of
    1:04:23 or you’re 100% residential which is 3M
    1:04:26 is by far the biggest in that but there are a few others.
    1:04:28 And we’re unique in that we play in both
    1:04:31 and our distribution allows us to play in both
    1:04:35 and that’s really the kind of nuance difference
    1:04:37 between us and them.
    1:04:38 – Is that what you mean when you say
    1:04:41 that you’re a logistics business?
    1:04:43 – Correct, we’re a logistics business
    1:04:46 because the reason why we exist is because
    1:04:50 we’re able to move, we’re able to deliver an air filter
    1:04:55 to an end user as cheap if not cheaper than anybody else.
    1:04:57 So I mean, that’s my belief.
    1:04:59 There’s basically no other company that’s set up
    1:05:02 that’s purpose built just to do what we do.
    1:05:04 There are a lot of manufacturers of air filters.
    1:05:06 There are a lot of retailers and distributors
    1:05:10 of air filters but there’s nobody at least at our scale
    1:05:14 that does the whole thing from raw material
    1:05:16 to effectively in delivery.
    1:05:19 And we’ve optimized that over the years
    1:05:21 and we’ve also aggregated a lot of customers
    1:05:24 that give us the economies of scale to be able to do that.
    1:05:27 – You mentioned a lot of companies
    1:05:29 that think they’re D2C brands
    1:05:32 aren’t actually D2C brands, walk me through that.
    1:05:35 – Yeah, so when I started Filterbuy,
    1:05:39 it was really at the time where you had a lot
    1:05:41 of direct-to-consumer brands coming to market.
    1:05:45 Companies like Dollar Shave Club and Harry’s
    1:05:47 were really big at the time.
    1:05:49 And you’ve seen a lot that have come out
    1:05:50 over the last decade or so.
    1:05:53 And my pet peeve is they call themselves
    1:05:55 direct-to-consumer and I’m not talking about
    1:05:57 any one specific company in this case.
    1:06:00 I don’t know all of the details of how they do things
    1:06:03 but for the most part, when I observe them,
    1:06:05 they’re brands but they’re not really direct-to-consumer
    1:06:08 because they are manufacturing their product in Asia
    1:06:13 and using third-party fulfillment to fulfill their orders.
    1:06:18 They’re really just brands that are using e-commerce
    1:06:19 as a sales channel.
    1:06:21 And which is actually quite limiting, right?
    1:06:24 Because we just haven’t talked about retail and B2V
    1:06:25 and all these other potential sales channels.
    1:06:29 It’s like, why would you be so proud of the fact
    1:06:32 that you’re a brand that is limiting yourself to one channel?
    1:06:37 And I just find it to be one of these kind of mind games
    1:06:41 that is quite interesting if you actually think about it
    1:06:44 because what is direct-to-consumer at the end of the day?
    1:06:46 What it meant to me and what it still means to me
    1:06:49 is if you actually are vertically integrated,
    1:06:51 you do all of your own manufacturing
    1:06:54 and you sell that product to the end user.
    1:06:56 Like that’s how I would always describe my business
    1:06:58 early on when we were just an air filter business.
    1:07:01 I would say we are completely vertically integrated,
    1:07:03 we manufacture all of our own product
    1:07:06 and we sell it direct to the person who’s installing it.
    1:07:09 That is what direct-to-consumer means to me.
    1:07:11 But basically every direct-to-consumer quote unquote brand
    1:07:15 that I’m aware of is effectively manufacturing their product
    1:07:19 with an overseas contract manufacturer
    1:07:21 putting their name on it.
    1:07:23 And maybe they’re doing some innovation
    1:07:24 in the product itself, I don’t know,
    1:07:27 but they’re putting their name on it
    1:07:29 and then they’re bringing it into the U.S.
    1:07:31 and using third-party fulfillment to sell it.
    1:07:34 And that’s not direct-to-consumer,
    1:07:36 that’s just a brand using e-commerce
    1:07:38 as a primary sales channel.
    1:07:43 And I think that that’s how it should be spoken about.
    1:07:47 And I actually have no interest in being any more,
    1:07:50 I do not want to be considered a direct-to-consumer brand.
    1:07:52 I want to be an indoor air quality brand.
    1:07:55 I mean, that’s really what I wanna be
    1:07:58 because I think direct-to-consumer is so limiting
    1:08:01 and I think words and categorization matters.
    1:08:03 And so you need to be really thoughtful
    1:08:07 about what it means if that’s what you’re pursuing.
    1:08:09 – Speaking about words that matter,
    1:08:11 one word we lingered on earlier,
    1:08:13 we’re still in this rabbit hole here a little bit,
    1:08:15 was momentum.
    1:08:19 Talk to me about what it is, why it’s important.
    1:08:20 – Momentum is everything.
    1:08:23 And it’s such an intangible thing at the same time.
    1:08:27 In life, in and anything,
    1:08:30 you’re either progressing or you’re regressing.
    1:08:34 There’s really no steady state in reality.
    1:08:38 I mean, our bodies deteriorate over time with no activity.
    1:08:41 There are just so many examples of this throughout life.
    1:08:46 And in business and in personal life or in health,
    1:08:48 I think it’s very much the same.
    1:08:52 It’s like you either are improving
    1:08:54 and building on something day in, day out
    1:08:57 or you’re declining.
    1:08:59 And the reality is, is that once you go through
    1:09:01 these periods of decline,
    1:09:04 even if it’s micro periods of decline,
    1:09:08 it’s oftentimes so hard to get your positive momentum
    1:09:11 to get to that improving again.
    1:09:16 And I’ve actually experienced it some of this year
    1:09:21 in that in a business, you kind of ebb and flow.
    1:09:22 Like I feel like you go through times
    1:09:24 or at least I experienced times of kind of growth
    1:09:25 and you’re pushing forward
    1:09:28 and you feel all this positive momentum
    1:09:28 you’re doing things.
    1:09:31 And then for whatever reason,
    1:09:32 things kind of settle in a little bit
    1:09:34 and then it gets a little bit harder
    1:09:37 and then you have to reignite that momentum again.
    1:09:40 And we had a lot of technical issues over the summer,
    1:09:42 including on prime day,
    1:09:44 I actually did a short about this,
    1:09:47 but we had a big prime deal that was running
    1:09:49 and by some glitch of the system,
    1:09:52 I got a call at three o’clock in the morning
    1:09:55 from someone at Amazon that our deal was not running
    1:09:58 and they were looking at fixing it.
    1:10:00 I got up, started monitoring it
    1:10:02 and by nine o’clock in the morning,
    1:10:05 like still nobody could purchase any of our product
    1:10:06 that was on a deal on Amazon.
    1:10:09 And I had to kill that deal
    1:10:11 just so we could go back to being viable.
    1:10:15 And normally we would have expected an incremental $2 million
    1:10:16 or something of revenue
    1:10:20 on that deal that we didn’t get.
    1:10:22 But I use that as an example
    1:10:25 because we had a few things like that that happened
    1:10:28 that just, stuff happens when you’re in business
    1:10:32 and we had a much slower kind of few months in the summer
    1:10:33 than we were expecting.
    1:10:35 And I hated it,
    1:10:38 but I’d actually just hired a new CFO
    1:10:39 a couple of months before
    1:10:40 and he really took it personally
    1:10:45 and he was, I think maybe even a little bit worried.
    1:10:48 He was like, wow, like, you know,
    1:10:50 we had all these kind of problems stack up and like,
    1:10:53 but for me, I’ve been through that kind of situation
    1:10:55 so many times, it didn’t even bother me.
    1:10:58 And like, we’ve actually now as a business
    1:11:00 like gained a lot of momentum
    1:11:03 and like we’re really kind of over indexing now
    1:11:08 from what we would have expected a few months ago.
    1:11:11 And that came from a conscious effort
    1:11:13 to really build momentum
    1:11:16 and like, you know, build like all the building blocks
    1:11:19 that you know you need in order to get that momentum
    1:11:20 from, you know, from marketing
    1:11:23 and from, you know, sales
    1:11:25 and all the things that go into that.
    1:11:27 And it’s just day in, day out grinding
    1:11:30 and pushing all of those things forward.
    1:11:31 And then you wake up one day
    1:11:33 and you’re like, wow, we’re over indexing again.
    1:11:36 And it’s because you built that momentum in your system
    1:11:38 to allow that to happen.
    1:11:40 And I’ve done it so many times
    1:11:41 in so many aspects of my life
    1:11:43 that I know like inherently
    1:11:45 when I’ve kind of lost momentum
    1:11:47 or maybe I’ve lost focus on something that’s important
    1:11:48 and I need to regain it
    1:11:51 and I can consciously, you know
    1:11:52 push that momentum forward
    1:11:56 or do the fundamental things that I know I need to do
    1:11:59 in order to regain that momentum
    1:12:02 if I repeat that consistently over some period of time.
    1:12:05 So it’s definitely a muscle that you build
    1:12:07 but that’s how I feel about it.
    1:12:09 And I think so many people have bad things
    1:12:10 that happen to them
    1:12:12 and like rather than going back to the fundamentals
    1:12:15 and like, hey, how am I going to start to dig out
    1:12:19 and regain that positive momentum in this?
    1:12:21 They, you know, linger on it for too long
    1:12:23 and let it atrophy
    1:12:26 and then it’s much harder to get that momentum.
    1:12:28 So anytime I see things
    1:12:32 whether it be in my health, a relationship or business
    1:12:34 so anytime I see things that are like starting
    1:12:37 to show some cracks and starting to slow down a bit
    1:12:39 then I’m very conscious of that.
    1:12:42 I say, oh, what do I need to do to get back to fundamentals
    1:12:44 to be able to put myself back on the path
    1:12:45 that I want to be on.
    1:12:48 – What are the core fundamentals you use personally?
    1:12:50 – Well, you know, in doing this YouTube series
    1:12:52 I’ve actually thought about this a lot.
    1:12:55 And so I do have a few traits that I can speak about
    1:12:56 that are important to me.
    1:12:59 But the very first one which I recommend for everyone
    1:13:01 but whenever I say these things
    1:13:04 is really a reminder to myself more than it is advice
    1:13:07 although I think it is great advice, but it’s focus.
    1:13:10 Time and again in my life or really as an entrepreneur
    1:13:14 I should say is I’ve had the tendency
    1:13:16 to get distracted by a shiny object
    1:13:18 or by potentially another new business model
    1:13:21 that sounds interesting or would be fun to pursue.
    1:13:25 And every time I’ve started one of those things
    1:13:28 realized it’s a lot harder than it probably looks
    1:13:30 and I end up shutting it down
    1:13:33 or refocusing on my core activity
    1:13:35 and I’m always better for it.
    1:13:38 And, you know, like I started a freight business during COVID
    1:13:41 and that I could kind of squint and say made sense
    1:13:44 because I had been the logistics business after all, right?
    1:13:46 But it ended up being a big mistake
    1:13:48 and I have a lot of examples like that.
    1:13:52 And every time that I’ve like really refined my focus
    1:13:54 and I kind of just kind of come back
    1:13:56 to the fundamentals as we talked about,
    1:13:57 I’ve been better off.
    1:13:59 And so that’s why, you know, having the focus
    1:14:02 around my mission and why you hear me talk about it
    1:14:03 all the time because I’m reminding myself
    1:14:05 I gotta stay focused on that.
    1:14:07 Like either every activity that I’m doing
    1:14:09 has to be towards that singular focus
    1:14:11 or I should not be doing it.
    1:14:13 And that’s what focus means to me
    1:14:15 and why the mission part of it is so critical.
    1:14:20 And I think, you know, people would be better suited
    1:14:21 to really be self-aware with themselves
    1:14:23 about what it is they really want out of life
    1:14:25 and be focused on, you know,
    1:14:29 building the becoming the person that gets them that.
    1:14:33 And so all those things are wrapped up in focus for me.
    1:14:37 Second kind of principle for me is persistence.
    1:14:41 And, you know, what I mean by that when I say it
    1:14:45 is that things take time, it’s not easy, you know,
    1:14:48 but like you’ve got to, when you’re focused on something
    1:14:50 then you’re obsessed with it.
    1:14:54 You’re gonna be persistently working towards that thing.
    1:14:58 And time and again, like I start off something thinking,
    1:14:59 oh, how hard can it be?
    1:15:01 Or I’ll get this done in a few months
    1:15:05 and it, you know, you know, takes a lot longer to get it done.
    1:15:08 I mean, wrapped up with that persistence is really patience.
    1:15:09 I would say persistence and patience
    1:15:12 or I sometimes talk about them separately,
    1:15:15 but they’re really the same in that, for me,
    1:15:19 in that things take longer than you want.
    1:15:20 You know, you consistently overestimate
    1:15:21 what you can achieve in a year
    1:15:23 and underestimate what you can do in a decade.
    1:15:26 I say that often and I’ve lived it so often.
    1:15:28 And that’s just a reminder to myself
    1:15:32 that it takes time to really build anything
    1:15:34 that’s meaningful and so you have to be persistent
    1:15:36 and on that journey.
    1:15:40 Then resilience, because, you know, bad things happen,
    1:15:42 like we talked about with momentum
    1:15:45 or like that prime day example, bad stuff happens,
    1:15:48 but resilience is the muscle to know that,
    1:15:49 hey, I’m gonna be able to solve it.
    1:15:52 There’s no problem that is not solvable
    1:15:55 and within business, I fundamentally believe that.
    1:15:59 Your responsibility is the entrepreneur
    1:16:01 or the business owner to solve them
    1:16:03 and that’s where resilience comes in.
    1:16:04 And so when bad things happen,
    1:16:05 you just have to remind yourself
    1:16:08 that that’s just part of the game
    1:16:11 and you gotta step up to make it happen.
    1:16:15 And then the last thing that I really live by
    1:16:18 is accountability and building accountability into my life
    1:16:22 and being accountable first and foremost to myself,
    1:16:25 but then having the self-awareness to know
    1:16:27 the areas where I’m weak and to build in
    1:16:30 the accountability structures
    1:16:33 in order to hold me accountable.
    1:16:35 And so like Dr. Grunner would be a good example.
    1:16:39 I realized I needed accountability within my business
    1:16:40 in a way that I didn’t have.
    1:16:44 And so I put in the guardrail by working with her.
    1:16:47 I also work with a personal trainer six days a week,
    1:16:50 you know, religiously and because I’m accountable
    1:16:52 I’m accountable to him at six 30, six days a week.
    1:16:55 Even if I’m traveling, when I’m traveling we do Zoom
    1:16:57 and I’m in person, we do it in person
    1:16:59 and we do that religiously.
    1:17:01 And I’ve done that for three and a half years
    1:17:04 and I really decided to take my health seriously.
    1:17:07 And I knew that if I just relied on myself
    1:17:09 and my own willpower to make that happen
    1:17:12 that it was something that wouldn’t happen for me
    1:17:13 because I am obsessed with my business
    1:17:14 and I’m all in on that.
    1:17:17 And I’m always going to find excuses not to do it.
    1:17:20 But I created that accountability with the trainer.
    1:17:22 And so I look for ways when I know that I’m weak
    1:17:25 at something to create the accountability
    1:17:28 to force myself to do it.
    1:17:32 So those would be like the general kind of self principles
    1:17:36 that I live by and remind myself of every day.
    1:17:40 – Eventually everybody loses the battle with willpower.
    1:17:41 – Willpower is not a strategy.
    1:17:45 You know, that’s why kind of going back to your obsession
    1:17:49 point, the people that are really successful are obsessed
    1:17:51 because when you’re obsessed with something
    1:17:53 you’re not like, you don’t need willpower
    1:17:57 because it’s all consuming for you and that’s what you do.
    1:18:02 And I think that that’s really why people need
    1:18:06 to lean into things that are more natural for them
    1:18:07 or interesting for them.
    1:18:09 It’s not that, oh, follow your dreams
    1:18:10 and everything’s gonna be great.
    1:18:11 I think that’s awful advice.
    1:18:15 But you do need to lean into the things that you enjoy
    1:18:17 and are genuinely curious about.
    1:18:20 It’s not like I enjoy air filters in and of themselves
    1:18:24 but I love business and I love the puzzle of that
    1:18:25 and there are lots of pieces of that
    1:18:28 that I can easily become obsessed with
    1:18:29 that are wrapped up in it.
    1:18:32 And so I think that figuring out
    1:18:34 where your natural curiosity is is super important
    1:18:37 because that obsession wins
    1:18:42 whereas willpower will break inevitably time and time again.
    1:18:45 – I like that obsession wins willpower breaks.
    1:18:49 Describe the hardest moment that you went through.
    1:18:52 Was there a moment when you wanted to quit and give up?
    1:18:53 – Yeah, I told this story a few times
    1:18:55 and I’ll give you the short version
    1:18:57 but it’s a bit tricky to articulate
    1:19:00 but I had been working on manufacturing air filters
    1:19:03 for about three years, maybe two and a half years.
    1:19:06 And there’s a part of the manufacturing process
    1:19:09 which is the beginning where you basically laminate
    1:19:12 or put glue onto like this chicken wire
    1:19:14 that goes onto the media to give it the media
    1:19:17 the rigidity in the air filter.
    1:19:19 So it’s called the laminator.
    1:19:23 And when I bought the initial machines
    1:19:25 I bought what’s called a cold glue laminator
    1:19:29 which means like Elmer’s glue type consistency
    1:19:32 that goes on and then it dries
    1:19:34 and it’s supposed to dry before it gets rolled up
    1:19:36 into this roll that then goes into the next part
    1:19:38 of the manufacturing process.
    1:19:40 Well, there was a May in Alabama
    1:19:42 when it was super humid
    1:19:44 and it was super humid in our manufacturing facility
    1:19:46 and the glue was not drying.
    1:19:48 It was not drying in the way it was supposed to be.
    1:19:50 There was so much water in the air.
    1:19:52 And so we were making all of these components
    1:19:55 or all of this raw material that’s supposed to, you know
    1:19:57 feed our whole manufacturing process
    1:20:01 and the glue was, the rolls were ultimately getting stuck
    1:20:03 to each other because it hadn’t dried properly
    1:20:05 and it became unusable.
    1:20:08 And so we were wasting about half of our raw material
    1:20:11 any given day, which was extraordinarily expensive
    1:20:13 and also was keeping us from being able to manufacture
    1:20:15 the product that we needed for our customers.
    1:20:16 And I was panicking
    1:20:18 because I didn’t know how to solve this problem.
    1:20:21 What am I supposed to do differently?
    1:20:24 And I started calling around like desperately
    1:20:29 and found a company in Indiana that had what’s called
    1:20:31 but a hot glue version of this laminator
    1:20:33 where you use hot glue rather than cold glue to do it
    1:20:35 which I did not even know existed.
    1:20:38 And by some act of God, they had one on the floor
    1:20:42 that I’ve never had that happen since
    1:20:45 where I’m able to find a machine that was built to order
    1:20:49 but for some reason they had one on the floor
    1:20:54 and I spent like $55,000 probably close
    1:20:59 to the last 55 grand I had to buy that hot glue laminator.
    1:21:04 I drove up on a, I rented a 20 foot Pinsky truck
    1:21:09 in Anniston, Alabama, I drove to New Albany, Indiana
    1:21:13 got there about two o’clock in the morning, woke up,
    1:21:18 got trained on that laminator all day that Friday
    1:21:22 then drove through the night back to Alabama
    1:21:24 and early Saturday morning trained the team
    1:21:26 on that hot glue laminator
    1:21:29 and that solved all of our laminating problems.
    1:21:33 And if they had not had that piece of machinery in stock,
    1:21:35 I do not know that I would have been able
    1:21:37 to continue manufacturing air filters
    1:21:39 because that was my breaking point
    1:21:41 and I really didn’t know how to solve it
    1:21:45 but I ultimately found that solution
    1:21:46 and went and figured it out.
    1:21:48 And actually, you won’t be able to see it here
    1:21:50 but I actually have a scar on my finger
    1:21:54 where I almost cut off my finger on that machine
    1:21:57 when I was training them as I made a mistake
    1:21:59 and I literally almost cut off my finger
    1:22:00 that Saturday morning when I got back.
    1:22:04 So I have the scar to remind myself of that experience
    1:22:07 but that was really the turning point for us
    1:22:10 because after that, things started really coming together
    1:22:14 but that was two and a half years into my entrepreneurial journey
    1:22:18 and I would not have had the financial
    1:22:21 or quite frankly, mental staying power
    1:22:25 to continue to do it if I had not been able
    1:22:26 to find that solution.
    1:22:28 But it’s also very formative for me
    1:22:31 in that ever since then, I’ve been hit with a lot of problems
    1:22:33 some of them seem seemingly bigger than that.
    1:22:35 I mean, and that’s just life
    1:22:37 and that’s certainly life in business
    1:22:40 but I’ve realized as I’ve gotten older
    1:22:43 that I’ve built the muscle of dealing with those problems
    1:22:48 and actually almost thriving in those situations
    1:22:51 because I get hit with something that it’s always annoying
    1:22:54 but you say, but I have the confidence
    1:22:58 that I’m gonna go and figure out a solution to it
    1:23:00 and that’s definitely one of my superpowers
    1:23:03 and I think that you have to embrace that
    1:23:04 if you wanna do something big.
    1:23:06 – Where does that confidence come from?
    1:23:09 – You know, some of it is, you’re born with it probably
    1:23:13 if I’m honest, I mean, I don’t know the alternative.
    1:23:15 I’m just uniquely determined in a lot of ways
    1:23:19 and I see that and that’s why I always hate giving advice
    1:23:21 to people because I know what works for me
    1:23:23 is different than what would work for somebody else
    1:23:25 and what I want is very different
    1:23:27 than what somebody else might want
    1:23:32 and I think I was blessed with a lot of unique skills
    1:23:34 that allowed me to do what I do
    1:23:36 and I don’t think that most people would be happy
    1:23:39 in the living the life that I’ve chosen to lead
    1:23:42 and I think that people need to have self-awareness
    1:23:47 around that but I had two loving, wonderful parents
    1:23:52 that I think were very helpful for that
    1:23:57 and so they definitely helped to instill that in me
    1:24:00 and I think that without having to be remiss
    1:24:03 if I didn’t give them some credit for that.
    1:24:06 – I have a theory, maybe you can correct me if I’m wrong
    1:24:08 but people who are obsessive
    1:24:11 and information gathering all the time
    1:24:15 and are hands on tend to have a lot more confidence
    1:24:17 do you think that they have the confidence
    1:24:18 because they have the information?
    1:24:21 – Yeah, the more you know how things work
    1:24:23 the more confident you become
    1:24:26 that you’re able to kind of turn the system
    1:24:28 in your favor I guess, you know?
    1:24:31 So I think that there’s a lot of truth in that.
    1:24:34 I mean like I definitely have proven that
    1:24:35 to myself time and time again.
    1:24:41 I think that there are people that are doers
    1:24:45 and then there are people that just let life happen to them
    1:24:50 I guess and I think that because I’ve been able to
    1:24:54 over time build more and more skills,
    1:24:58 more and more resources or like you know
    1:25:00 just compound things positively
    1:25:03 that you get more and more confidence as time goes on
    1:25:05 and that comes from experimenting
    1:25:09 and going down rabbit holes and that kind of stuff
    1:25:12 and I think that that lends itself ultimately to confidence.
    1:25:15 I mean, you know, I see so many people
    1:25:19 so many friends even like that from my finance days
    1:25:21 that you know, you look at and make
    1:25:24 they made a lot of money on a relative basis
    1:25:28 and some of them, you know, still make a lot of money
    1:25:30 but don’t have the confidence
    1:25:32 and I think it’s because when you’re working
    1:25:36 for somebody else or relying on other people to, you know
    1:25:39 pay you or validate you that you never really get
    1:25:41 the confidence that you can build as an entrepreneur
    1:25:43 when you’re kind of out there making things happen
    1:25:48 on your own and I think that for me at least
    1:25:49 that’s been super important.
    1:25:51 And part of the reason why I wanted to leave Goldman
    1:25:54 when I did is I wanted to go out and like build my own life
    1:25:58 and I knew that I would find freedom in that.
    1:25:59 You know, as I sit here today, it’s like
    1:26:03 if I lost everything tomorrow, I have the confidence
    1:26:05 that I have the skills and the knowledge
    1:26:07 and the ability to, you know
    1:26:09 go out and do something else that’s big
    1:26:13 and you know, that is where I have found real freedom
    1:26:15 and where I think real freedom lies
    1:26:18 and that’s why I always push back so much on people
    1:26:22 that think that money in and of itself gives freedom.
    1:26:26 I’ve seen so many examples where it’s actually
    1:26:28 quite the opposite and you know,
    1:26:31 a corollary to that that I think is important
    1:26:35 is when people get money that they maybe didn’t deserve
    1:26:38 or they didn’t earn, then they’re forever living
    1:26:41 in a scarcity mindset because they’re afraid of losing it
    1:26:43 because if you have something that you covet
    1:26:45 that you have no way of getting back if you lose it
    1:26:47 then you have to hold on to it so tight
    1:26:51 and that is not conducive to living a happy life
    1:26:54 or accomplishing big things.
    1:26:56 You need to have in my opinion an expansive mindset
    1:26:59 and the way you can build that expansive mindset
    1:27:03 is to have the, you know, confidence
    1:27:06 that you can go out and build something
    1:27:08 or get that money again, you’re not afraid of losing it
    1:27:10 because you know you’re gonna be able to go out
    1:27:12 and make it happen again
    1:27:14 and that’s really the mindset that it takes
    1:27:18 to do something big I think and you know,
    1:27:20 that just comes from building the confidence
    1:27:22 and that muscle over time
    1:27:25 that you get more and more confidence as you build
    1:27:26 and you know I’m certainly more confident
    1:27:29 than I was a decade ago and I think decade ago
    1:27:31 I was more confident than I was a decade before that
    1:27:34 but it’s all about building the momentum towards that.
    1:27:36 – I love that.
    1:27:38 Talk to me about the freight decision.
    1:27:40 What went into that?
    1:27:42 How did you realize it wasn’t working?
    1:27:45 What did you do when you realized it wasn’t working?
    1:27:48 – Oh, you wanna rub some salt in my wounds.
    1:27:51 You know, I could actually give you a couple
    1:27:53 of other examples too but freight,
    1:27:58 long story short in COVID, sorry in 2020,
    1:28:02 freight became very hard to source
    1:28:03 and it was very expensive
    1:28:07 because there was just so much demand to move this stuff
    1:28:09 and again, a bit hubristic I would argue
    1:28:11 if I was looking back at it.
    1:28:14 I thought, well, you know, I’m so good
    1:28:15 at this business thing, right?
    1:28:18 How hard could running a freight business be?
    1:28:21 And I have a lot of demand for freight
    1:28:22 so I can just do my own freight
    1:28:25 and then sell the excess to other people
    1:28:30 and also in US tax code, there’s a bit of an aside.
    1:28:33 There is a section that basically allows
    1:28:37 for accelerated depreciation and what that means
    1:28:41 is that if you bought a million dollars of equipment
    1:28:43 like trucks, then you could ride off that million dollars
    1:28:46 against your taxes in that year.
    1:28:47 – Oh, wow.
    1:28:49 – And it’s actually still exists currently this year.
    1:28:51 You can only do 60% with Trump back in office,
    1:28:53 my guess is it’ll go back up to 100%.
    1:28:58 But it’s for something that you don’t see talked about a lot
    1:29:02 but like if I bought a million dollars of trucks,
    1:29:05 I could effectively borrow a million dollars from a bank
    1:29:09 because they love to finance against trucks
    1:29:12 and you could also, if you had a million dollars of income,
    1:29:14 you could then take that income effectively to zero
    1:29:16 and pay zero income tax.
    1:29:18 That’s how accelerated depreciation works.
    1:29:19 So that’s another part of the reason
    1:29:21 I got sucked into this whole thing.
    1:29:23 But I thought, oh, if I can do this
    1:29:24 and operate a freight business,
    1:29:27 then I found a cheat code here.
    1:29:31 So that was out of the origin for me getting into it.
    1:29:36 And between 2020 and 2021,
    1:29:39 I bought 50 tractor trailers.
    1:29:42 So I bought 50 trucks and actually probably 60 trailers
    1:29:43 to go along with it.
    1:29:45 So I don’t do things in a small way
    1:29:46 or I don’t make small mistakes.
    1:29:48 If I make them, I make them big.
    1:29:53 So, it’s probably six or $7 million worth of equipment
    1:29:55 more or less in that neighborhood.
    1:29:58 And we operated them and never once
    1:30:00 to be operating them profitably,
    1:30:01 even in the beginning,
    1:30:06 it was an example where the freight business
    1:30:08 is very cyclical and I knew that going in.
    1:30:09 It wasn’t like I knew it.
    1:30:14 I decided I was smart enough to be able to mitigate it,
    1:30:17 which is wrong, but it’s very cyclical.
    1:30:22 And you saw freight rates start to come down pretty quickly
    1:30:26 in 2022, at the end of 2022 and really into 2023.
    1:30:27 But even when they were higher,
    1:30:31 the managing of that business was both a distraction
    1:30:33 because that’s a lot of people to manage.
    1:30:35 We did not have the right infrastructure to manage it
    1:30:37 and the right teams to manage it.
    1:30:40 I really bit off more than we as a company could chew
    1:30:42 while still we’re still growing our business
    1:30:43 at a really rapid rate, right?
    1:30:47 And I’m trying to do this as a side.
    1:30:53 And so ultimately, I liquidated all of those trucks
    1:30:55 at the end of 2023.
    1:31:00 All in that probably was a $3 or $4 million mistake
    1:31:03 on my side, but the money is one thing.
    1:31:07 The biggest mistake was the lack of focus
    1:31:11 or the energy that it took in distraction away
    1:31:14 from the core business, both for me and for people around me
    1:31:16 that were helping me to manage it.
    1:31:19 So it cost you $3 to $4 million in actual money,
    1:31:21 but it cost you a lot more in loss of focus.
    1:31:23 Oh, a lot more in opportunity cost, in my opinion.
    1:31:25 And I mean, that’s why I remind myself number one focus
    1:31:28 because that’s just an example.
    1:31:33 And I have others where I got off track a little bit
    1:31:37 and I convinced myself that it was consistent
    1:31:39 with what I was doing because you’re always the easiest
    1:31:42 person to fool is yourself, always.
    1:31:44 And I convinced myself, fooled myself
    1:31:47 into thinking it was a good idea.
    1:31:50 What’s another example that comes to mind where you did that?
    1:31:52 Well, we actually did a video about it,
    1:31:57 but I effectively in 2021 with a partner from Goldman
    1:32:02 bought an HVAC service business in Hollywood, Florida,
    1:32:04 which is outside of Miami.
    1:32:05 You’re still operating this, though.
    1:32:07 Well, we, it’s different now,
    1:32:09 but we can talk about what that is.
    1:32:12 It’s a big part of what I intend to do in the future.
    1:32:17 But long story short, we bought this business
    1:32:21 and when we started operating it, it became clear to us
    1:32:25 that it was not the business that we were sold.
    1:32:28 And what scale was it when you bought it?
    1:32:29 How much revenue?
    1:32:32 It was doing about $5 million of revenue
    1:32:37 and supposedly making $1.2 million of EBITDA at the time.
    1:32:39 That’s a pretty good margin.
    1:32:41 And yeah, well they, I mean,
    1:32:43 a typical HVAC service business operates
    1:32:46 at about a 15 to 20% net margin is what you’d find
    1:32:50 most good HVAC services business, businesses operate at.
    1:32:53 The business we bought was different
    1:32:54 than the business that was represented.
    1:32:58 But I did that with a partner who still works with me today
    1:33:01 and he’s the guy that runs our HVAC solutions business.
    1:33:06 But I realized that we did that too quickly.
    1:33:12 And we, again, it was an arrogant decision
    1:33:15 that as I have this belief
    1:33:18 that any business problem is solvable.
    1:33:21 And I still stand by that very clearly,
    1:33:26 but I was not as close to that specific transaction
    1:33:27 as I probably should have been.
    1:33:32 And going into a new industry as I was more or less
    1:33:36 with that, I should have been a lot more careful,
    1:33:38 even though I knew it was consistent
    1:33:41 with my longer term vision, I rushed into it.
    1:33:44 And that basically, we ended up having to shut down
    1:33:47 that business and it cost us a total of $4.5 million.
    1:33:50 And I’ve taken the learning from that
    1:33:53 and now doing it right and we’re building out
    1:33:56 filtered by HVAC solutions where we operate now
    1:33:59 in South Florida and we intend to take that nationwide.
    1:34:02 But I’m doing it on my own terms
    1:34:07 and really methodically building out our systems
    1:34:10 and processes, customer acquisition funnels,
    1:34:11 all of those types of things
    1:34:13 that I think are really important to be able to scale it.
    1:34:16 And so I really took a big step back
    1:34:19 to get it right this time around.
    1:34:22 – Talk to me about building that from the ground up.
    1:34:23 How are you thinking about it?
    1:34:24 Sounds like you’re thinking about it
    1:34:27 as a much larger business than it already is.
    1:34:29 – So my intention is to build a nationwide
    1:34:32 HVAC service business, which in the US
    1:34:33 does not currently exist.
    1:34:36 And so my benchmark for that is could I,
    1:34:38 if I wanted to run a Super Bowl ad
    1:34:42 and have it be effective because it touches everybody
    1:34:43 that would be watching it, right?
    1:34:46 That’s what a nationwide HVAC service business is.
    1:34:48 And right now that’s a very fragmented market.
    1:34:51 There are lots of mom and pop type businesses
    1:34:53 that have been around for a long time
    1:34:55 to serve specific geographic areas.
    1:34:59 But there’s no nationwide HVAC service business,
    1:35:00 at least I’m aware of that.
    1:35:02 And there’s been a lot of private equity interest in it
    1:35:04 because as you noted that there are good margins
    1:35:05 in that business.
    1:35:08 And so the private equity players end up rolling up
    1:35:10 businesses of different brands,
    1:35:13 but they can’t consolidate them under one brand
    1:35:16 because they would lose all that goodwill
    1:35:18 or that brand equity, right?
    1:35:23 I’m in a unique position in that we have sold
    1:35:27 to somewhere around eight million unique residences
    1:35:28 across the country.
    1:35:33 All those customers by definition have an HVAC unit
    1:35:35 that needs to be serviced.
    1:35:37 So I call the air filter our Trojan horse
    1:35:38 into somebody’s home.
    1:35:43 And so I think when somebody’s riding my biography
    1:35:45 in 30 years, I hope that that’s what they’re talking about
    1:35:49 is like that was the start of this much bigger
    1:35:51 indoor air quality company that was ultimately built
    1:35:54 because that air filter was the Trojan horse
    1:35:56 that got us that customer’s relationship.
    1:36:00 So we already have a relationship with customers
    1:36:02 and like the customer acquisition costs
    1:36:05 and the brand is actually the hardest thing to build
    1:36:08 from scratch.
    1:36:11 And so like we already have that as a starting point.
    1:36:16 But you know, my belief is that the way that millennials
    1:36:21 and younger are want to interact with their service people
    1:36:23 is very different than how the older generation did.
    1:36:28 Like generally now people do not want to haggle on price.
    1:36:31 They want transparent pricing.
    1:36:33 They don’t want opaque pricing.
    1:36:35 Lots of factors like that, that you know,
    1:36:38 the HVAC service business is actually operates
    1:36:40 in kind of an old school way.
    1:36:43 And I think that there’s room for a, you know,
    1:36:46 national brand that, you know, has the trust
    1:36:49 and the reputation backing behind it.
    1:36:53 And that’s something that the younger generations
    1:36:57 are actually looking for that does not currently exist.
    1:37:00 And we’re in a unique position to build that.
    1:37:03 But, you know, I’d be remiss not to say that, you know,
    1:37:05 part of the reason I’m going so public
    1:37:07 with my personal brand is like I actually think the way
    1:37:09 I’m going to be able to execute against that
    1:37:13 is ironically ultimately buying and partnering
    1:37:18 with other HVAC businesses that maybe are struggling
    1:37:21 or are struggling to grow or maybe have or working
    1:37:24 in a niche market and want to be a part of something bigger.
    1:37:29 I want to bring the brand and the kind of operational
    1:37:32 playbook and expertise to, you know,
    1:37:33 partner with them potentially, you know,
    1:37:37 maybe buy a majority stake and partner with them
    1:37:39 to really grow that business.
    1:37:43 Kind of a model is what I ultimately intend to do
    1:37:46 with my personal brand and why I’m, you know,
    1:37:48 starting to be public about it.
    1:37:51 And the difference between like when I bought
    1:37:55 that first HVAC business that failed is I had not built
    1:37:57 my own operational playbook yet
    1:38:00 that I was comfortable with going out and doing at scale.
    1:38:03 I hadn’t really done the work to deserve that yet.
    1:38:05 I was just trying to buy somebody else’s.
    1:38:08 And for me, at least that just doesn’t work.
    1:38:11 And, you know, so now I’m really going through the process
    1:38:14 of building out that, you know, operational playbook
    1:38:16 that can scale.
    1:38:19 And then I’m going to hopefully scale that by acquisition
    1:38:23 and by partnering with businesses to do it quickly.
    1:38:26 – What goes into that playbook for HVAC?
    1:38:28 – Well, I mean, it’s really for any business,
    1:38:29 it would be the same.
    1:38:32 It’s like, how am I going to deliver a product
    1:38:34 or service consistently?
    1:38:36 So having the infrastructure to do that
    1:38:39 and, you know, hiring experts, in this case,
    1:38:41 now I’m far enough along, I can really hire experts
    1:38:45 to help me to build that, make sure that we’re, you know,
    1:38:47 operating in the most efficient way possible,
    1:38:49 offering the best service possible,
    1:38:52 doing that consistently, doing that repeatedly.
    1:38:53 So that’s one.
    1:38:56 And the second, and arguably the trickiest,
    1:38:59 although they’re both tricky, is the marketing and branding,
    1:38:59 right?
    1:39:02 And, you know, customer acquisition costs
    1:39:04 in the HVAC service space is very high.
    1:39:09 I mean, you may be paying $500 for a new customer
    1:39:11 on average, if you’re looking for a replacement
    1:39:13 or whatnot of an HC unit.
    1:39:16 But that’s an area where we at Filter by Excel
    1:39:18 is something that I’m obsessed with.
    1:39:22 And a big reason why I’m doing all this personal branding
    1:39:26 is I’m learning, you know, how to market a, you know,
    1:39:29 HVAC service business at scale through social media
    1:39:32 or through wherever the eyeballs are.
    1:39:35 And so really for me, it comes down to that marketing
    1:39:37 and that operations.
    1:39:40 And I have some really strong people in the operations piece
    1:39:41 that are taking ownership of that.
    1:39:44 And then I’m really focused on building the marketing engine
    1:39:47 to be able to drive that for the brand as a whole.
    1:39:50 – There’s a popular narrative in sort of like the VC
    1:39:54 and private equity world that you can buy these low tech
    1:39:57 businesses at, you know, very small multiples
    1:40:00 and add technology magically somehow
    1:40:02 and all of a sudden sell them for more.
    1:40:04 Talk to me about that.
    1:40:06 – Yeah, I kind of positioned myself
    1:40:09 as the opposite of private equity in that.
    1:40:12 And I went like anybody that may partner with me
    1:40:15 or partner with us to know that and to believe that
    1:40:17 because I believe in adding long-term value.
    1:40:20 And, you know, I have no intention to sell my businesses.
    1:40:22 I think there’s a world in which we make a public one day
    1:40:23 way down the road.
    1:40:26 But other than that, like I’m in it for the long haul
    1:40:28 and I don’t have any intention to buy it
    1:40:31 and, you know, flip it, which is what the mindset
    1:40:34 of so many of these private equity firms have.
    1:40:37 And so I just think that’s first thing
    1:40:39 that’s important to know, you know,
    1:40:43 I think that the smaller HVAC service space
    1:40:45 or any service space is incredibly tough.
    1:40:49 And it’s a lot tougher than, I mean, there are a lot of,
    1:40:53 you know, big social media people currently
    1:40:57 that are, you know, are big proponents
    1:41:00 of that type of a model than doing it on small scale.
    1:41:04 And like, all I can tell you is that, you know,
    1:41:06 I have a lot of resources and have done
    1:41:09 and I think I’m a pretty established and good entrepreneur
    1:41:12 and my first acquisition, I lost four and a half million
    1:41:16 dollars and, you know, that, and that was on a, you know,
    1:41:18 three and a half million dollar purchase price.
    1:41:22 So we managed to lose more than we paid for the business,
    1:41:25 you know, in trying to fix it.
    1:41:28 And so there are risk involved in doing this stuff
    1:41:31 and the operational risk are huge.
    1:41:36 And so I’m quite skeptical as to,
    1:41:39 especially on a small scale, people’s ability to do it.
    1:41:39 Well, it doesn’t mean you can’t.
    1:41:42 I mean, I think there’s huge opportunity if you can,
    1:41:44 but I think it’s a lot more difficult
    1:41:47 than most people are articulating.
    1:41:50 And I think it’s maybe because they don’t really understand
    1:41:52 the risks that are associated with these.
    1:41:56 – But to answer your question more specifically,
    1:41:57 there are certainly private equity companies
    1:42:02 that do this type of thing well and in all types of spaces.
    1:42:06 And the ones that do it well,
    1:42:08 understand the business that they’re in really well
    1:42:12 and do build the operations that give you economies of scale
    1:42:15 for the smaller people or smaller entities
    1:42:16 that they’re running.
    1:42:18 So like if you can consolidate, you know,
    1:42:22 the ERP system that you’re using across all your companies.
    1:42:24 So you have one expert that understands, you know,
    1:42:27 service titan or whatever that might be,
    1:42:30 or you consolidate your, you know, recruiting practices
    1:42:35 and, you know, really have like the playbooks down
    1:42:36 for all of those things.
    1:42:38 There are some private equity companies
    1:42:40 that are great operators that are able to do that
    1:42:43 and can go out and roll these things up very well.
    1:42:46 You know, but I think that there are a lot of kind of
    1:42:49 medium and smaller, particularly quote unquote,
    1:42:50 private equity companies,
    1:42:52 which means they just went out and raised private capital
    1:42:54 to go and run these playbooks
    1:42:56 that don’t have the operational expertise
    1:42:59 that they need to really run these businesses well.
    1:43:03 And I think that it creates a lot of problems both for them
    1:43:06 and for the employees of the companies that they hire.
    1:43:11 And I can tell you, you know, almost every major person
    1:43:15 that I’ve hired at management level
    1:43:18 has come from a company that was owned
    1:43:20 by a private equity company
    1:43:21 and they absolutely hated it
    1:43:24 and they were looking for, you know, a different path.
    1:43:27 I mean, like when I interview for CFOs
    1:43:30 or for any of these positions, you know,
    1:43:32 most of what we see are people that are working
    1:43:35 for a private equity-based company that are miserable
    1:43:38 because, you know, there really is no clear vision,
    1:43:40 no clear direction.
    1:43:42 You know, they’re just looking to optimize
    1:43:45 to financial engineer to be able to sell it
    1:43:47 to the next person up.
    1:43:49 I mean, like, I’m not gonna say that’s all private equity,
    1:43:51 but that’s a lot of private equity
    1:43:54 and the people that are working for them
    1:43:55 are miserable oftentimes.
    1:43:59 And that’s why I consider myself anti-private equity.
    1:44:01 – Why do you think we’re attracted
    1:44:03 to strong missions and visions?
    1:44:07 – I think that we, as human beings,
    1:44:10 need to have a purpose in life
    1:44:12 and have a reason to wake up every day.
    1:44:14 And I’ve seen that, you know,
    1:44:18 both at high level executive type people
    1:44:20 all the way down to people
    1:44:22 that work on manufacturing lines
    1:44:24 that really take their job seriously
    1:44:26 and really find meaning and fulfillment
    1:44:31 and, you know, working for a company that, you know,
    1:44:33 has a mission and a purpose.
    1:44:36 And I think that it’s the X factor
    1:44:41 that gets people excited to come to work
    1:44:45 and to go the extra mile any given day.
    1:44:46 But I just think it’s how we’re wired.
    1:44:50 I mean, I think that we’re not wired to get money.
    1:44:52 I mean, I think that like money
    1:44:54 is something that’s important for everyone.
    1:44:59 And, you know, obviously is an important factor
    1:45:00 in anybody’s life.
    1:45:04 But, you know, that’s not enough to, you know,
    1:45:05 solve people’s problems
    1:45:07 or to give them fulfillment most importantly.
    1:45:09 Like there’s so many people oftentimes
    1:45:13 that were given money that are actually miserable.
    1:45:15 And I’ve seen that so many times in my life
    1:45:20 and I’m so, I tried to avoid that so much
    1:45:23 because I just see people that have so much money
    1:45:26 that are so miserable because they don’t have any fulfillment.
    1:45:28 They have no reason actually for existing
    1:45:29 or waking up every day and they know that.
    1:45:31 Like deep down, like when you’re in that situation,
    1:45:34 you know it, that you don’t have a purpose in life
    1:45:38 is you don’t have a reason to really wake up
    1:45:39 and exist every day.
    1:45:43 And I think that when that’s you, you’re miserable.
    1:45:47 And, you know, but when you know, like, hey, I’m here,
    1:45:49 I’m working on this, it can be the most inane problem.
    1:45:53 But like if you have a reason for existing on a purpose,
    1:45:57 then it’s something that ultimately can allow you
    1:45:58 to have fulfillment.
    1:46:00 And it’s just how we’re wired.
    1:46:02 And that’s why it is something
    1:46:04 I don’t think we talk enough about
    1:46:07 because we all, you know, focus on the material.
    1:46:08 And the material stuff is important.
    1:46:09 Don’t get me wrong.
    1:46:12 I mean, I think material stuff is very important,
    1:46:13 but that’s not enough.
    1:46:16 Just take a little step back about it.
    1:46:18 You know, about two years ago,
    1:46:20 and really when I started working with Dr. Gurner,
    1:46:24 I was, you know, having a little bit of a crisis of self
    1:46:27 in that, you know, what do I want out of life?
    1:46:30 I could sell the business and, you know,
    1:46:32 have more money than I could ever spend
    1:46:34 or my children could ever spend.
    1:46:37 And I would have been 40 years old
    1:46:38 or just about to turn 40,
    1:46:40 could have hundreds of millions of dollars.
    1:46:43 And, you know, then just retire to the sunset.
    1:46:46 Like, is that what I should want out of life?
    1:46:49 You know, we’re like, what should I do?
    1:46:49 What should I do?
    1:46:52 And then I ultimately went through that journey
    1:46:56 and decided that, you know, I wanted to have a mission
    1:46:58 and a reason to wake up every day
    1:46:59 and a reason for existing.
    1:47:01 And I knew that I was not going to be happy
    1:47:05 if I just became another, you know,
    1:47:08 rich guy that, you know, spent all of his time
    1:47:10 at the beach and on the yacht all day long.
    1:47:13 I knew I would be miserable in that.
    1:47:15 Or with the foundation even that I just, you know,
    1:47:18 pretended to give a little bit of money away
    1:47:21 so I had something to do.
    1:47:23 You know, I just knew that for me,
    1:47:25 I would only find misery in that.
    1:47:30 And so that’s what ultimately led to me, you know,
    1:47:33 creating my mission of building the world’s leading
    1:47:34 indoor air quality company.
    1:47:35 Because that’s something I know I can work on
    1:47:36 for the rest of my life.
    1:47:39 And be excited about and be proud about
    1:47:42 and hopefully rally people around me
    1:47:45 to work on and achieve that together.
    1:47:47 And that’s a purpose, that’s my purpose.
    1:47:50 And I would encourage anyone to go out
    1:47:51 and find their own unique purpose.
    1:47:54 It doesn’t need to be that or it doesn’t need to be as big.
    1:47:56 You can be way bigger.
    1:47:57 It can be anything that you want.
    1:48:00 But like that’s the driver, that’s the fuel
    1:48:03 that gets you out of bed every day,
    1:48:03 gets me out of bed every day.
    1:48:06 And I think that that’s how human beings are wired.
    1:48:09 And the most miserable people I know are the people
    1:48:11 that don’t have any purpose.
    1:48:13 – Talk to me about the balance is probably the wrong word,
    1:48:15 but I’m gonna use it anyway between
    1:48:17 your obsession and your family.
    1:48:20 – I was incredibly lucky.
    1:48:24 I have great parents and you know,
    1:48:26 I actually married my high school sweetheart.
    1:48:29 We’ve been together since we were 17 years old.
    1:48:31 Actually, she was 16, I was 17.
    1:48:33 And we’ve been together that whole time.
    1:48:39 And you know, 24 years now, I guess.
    1:48:42 And you know, I’ve got three young children
    1:48:46 and I have a great relationship with them.
    1:48:50 And you know, my wife understands who I am at a deep level.
    1:48:53 And you know, it never would try to change me
    1:48:55 and she trusts me completely, you know.
    1:49:00 And so I’ve been very fortunate for that.
    1:49:03 And I think that having a stable good partner
    1:49:06 is a cheat code in life.
    1:49:09 And you know, I really prioritize it.
    1:49:13 You know, I work really hard and I travel a lot,
    1:49:18 but I’m at home for 6.30 for dinner almost every night.
    1:49:23 When I travel, you know, I now have a plane
    1:49:25 and I go all over the country,
    1:49:28 but I do my best to minimize myself to one night
    1:49:32 gone a week, worst case, I’m gone two nights.
    1:49:36 And the rest of the time, I’m at home by 6.30
    1:49:40 and I see them in the morning before they go off to school.
    1:49:43 And you know, I have a great relationship with them.
    1:49:46 And you know, I think that, you know,
    1:49:50 people use it as an excuse often times to say,
    1:49:53 oh, I need balance or I can’t have it all
    1:49:54 or can’t be above that.
    1:49:55 I don’t think you can have it all.
    1:50:00 But it’s like, you know, there’s so much time in the day.
    1:50:03 And, you know, you just have to prioritize
    1:50:04 the things that are important to you.
    1:50:07 And for me, it’s my business and my family.
    1:50:09 And, you know, there are a lot of things I don’t get to do
    1:50:12 that other people may do.
    1:50:15 I don’t get to play tennis and I enjoy playing tennis
    1:50:17 or, you know, I don’t golf.
    1:50:22 And, you know, I, my, you know, friendships
    1:50:23 have probably suffered in that,
    1:50:25 like I don’t have, you know,
    1:50:27 friends I hang out with every weekend
    1:50:28 and that kind of stuff.
    1:50:32 I mean, those are the things that are the cost of that,
    1:50:36 but I have such a fulfilling life with my family
    1:50:37 and my business.
    1:50:42 And so I find real purpose in my work
    1:50:47 and I have a family that supports me completely
    1:50:51 and understands and, you know, it’s thankful for that.
    1:50:53 And, but I also get to spend a lot of time with them.
    1:50:57 I mean, more than, you know, I think people might think.
    1:50:59 And I think I spend more time with my kids
    1:51:02 and a lot of people that work way less probably.
    1:51:04 And, but it’s because I prioritize that
    1:51:05 is important to me.
    1:51:06 – I’m the same way.
    1:51:10 You mentioned a stable partner being a cheat code for life.
    1:51:11 What are the other cheat codes?
    1:51:13 What would you tell me?
    1:51:14 – I don’t want to sound like a broken record,
    1:51:17 but ultimately really self-awareness
    1:51:21 and knowing like what you need out of life
    1:51:23 is a huge cheat code.
    1:51:25 I think a lot of people are trying to live
    1:51:27 somebody else’s life.
    1:51:31 And I think, and then then wondering why they’re unhappy.
    1:51:34 And it’s because they’re trying to live somebody else’s life.
    1:51:37 And that’s what’s so dangerous about the modern influencer
    1:51:40 culture because it’s so easy to want to live
    1:51:41 somebody else’s life.
    1:51:42 We all fall into it.
    1:51:45 You know, Charlie Munger, probably my greatest
    1:51:47 virtual mentor has a saying that, you know,
    1:51:52 the thing that drives the world isn’t greed, it’s envy.
    1:51:58 Envy is the real problem because people always want
    1:52:01 what somebody else’s has.
    1:52:03 And I think that it’s very easy for us to fall
    1:52:06 into that trap that ultimately leaves to misery
    1:52:10 because, you know, what works for you is going to look
    1:52:11 very different than works for me.
    1:52:13 And that’s what’s beautiful about it.
    1:52:15 But if I tried to be you or you tried to be me,
    1:52:16 we would both be miserable,
    1:52:19 even if we were financially successful, right?
    1:52:20 At least that’s my belief.
    1:52:23 And I think that that self-awareness of knowing like,
    1:52:27 really, who are you and like what do you,
    1:52:29 but what really gets you going and what do you really need
    1:52:33 out of life to have a fulfilled life is the biggest
    1:52:34 cheat code of all.
    1:52:37 And I think it’s the thing that most people don’t spend
    1:52:39 any time actually thinking about.
    1:52:41 – There’s a lot of people who get to a certain level
    1:52:44 of success, be it whatever it is, 5 million, 10 million,
    1:52:47 100 million, and they take their foot off the gas
    1:52:49 and they start living a lifestyle.
    1:52:53 And maybe or maybe not that lifestyle sort of becomes
    1:52:55 too expensive and they have to go back to work.
    1:52:58 A lot of people, I know a lot of people that’s happened to you.
    1:53:00 What keeps you going?
    1:53:03 – My mission, I mean, as I told you, I mean,
    1:53:06 I had a bit of a crisis of self.
    1:53:07 I wanted to know like,
    1:53:09 I wanted to answer that question myself, right?
    1:53:12 And for me, I like to think about,
    1:53:15 what am I going to be thinking about on my deathbed?
    1:53:19 And I know for me, the things I will regret are things
    1:53:24 that I did not try or that I knew I could have done
    1:53:27 or thought I could have done if only I put in more effort
    1:53:31 or things that I didn’t do because I was fearful.
    1:53:33 Those are the things that I’m going to regret.
    1:53:36 It’s not going to be the times where I make a mistake.
    1:53:41 And I know that I am uniquely gifted in a number of ways.
    1:53:47 And I feel a tremendous responsibility
    1:53:50 to those people I touch and the people around me
    1:53:53 to have a positive impact.
    1:53:55 And that sounds corny to say,
    1:53:58 but it’s really a big driver for me.
    1:54:02 And I know that if I just gave up now
    1:54:04 and sold to a private equity company
    1:54:07 or took a big check from somebody
    1:54:09 and then just kind of went to the sunset,
    1:54:12 that I’m not fulfilling my full potential.
    1:54:15 And I know in my deathbed that I would regret that.
    1:54:19 And so for me, there is no other option,
    1:54:23 but to see how big of an impact I can have.
    1:54:27 And what exactly that means is maybe somewhat nebulous,
    1:54:29 but I intend to have a very big impact
    1:54:32 on the people that I touch.
    1:54:37 And I think I have a duty to do that.
    1:54:39 And that really drives me and what ultimately led to me
    1:54:42 building this mission to give me a framework
    1:54:43 for thinking about it.
    1:54:45 – Talk to me about the lifestyle creep you mentioned.
    1:54:47 You’ve seen this before with people.
    1:54:49 Is there, without mentioning names or anything,
    1:54:51 is there an example that stands out to you
    1:54:52 that other people might be able to learn from
    1:54:54 who are listening to this?
    1:54:57 A lot of incredibly successful people listen to this.
    1:54:59 – Yeah, well, the examples that I’ve seen come back
    1:55:02 to something we spoke about earlier in the conversation,
    1:55:06 but when you’re relying on other people or a paycheck
    1:55:10 or one income stream to pay your bills,
    1:55:12 and then it may be like if you’re working in finance
    1:55:14 and you’re making a few million dollars a year,
    1:55:16 then your lifestyle creeps up to that.
    1:55:21 And then you wake up one day and maybe you’re not
    1:55:23 as marketable as you were before,
    1:55:25 and you don’t have any other skills,
    1:55:30 and you don’t have the muscle of building those new skills,
    1:55:32 and then you’re in trouble.
    1:55:35 And I know a number of people that have lived that
    1:55:36 because it’s easy to think,
    1:55:38 oh, this is gonna go on forever,
    1:55:40 and then it inevitably doesn’t.
    1:55:42 And even if you have a lot of money,
    1:55:44 it goes back to that scarcity mindset.
    1:55:46 Because you’re so afraid of losing it,
    1:55:48 you can’t spend it, you can’t invest it,
    1:55:50 you can’t take the risk that you need
    1:55:53 in order to be able to go out and build that lifestyle
    1:55:54 again, so to speak.
    1:55:56 And so most of the people that I’ve seen
    1:55:58 that have been impacted have come from the finance world
    1:56:03 that is now declining as a share of GDP.
    1:56:05 And so it’s just contracting,
    1:56:08 there’s not as much money as there was before.
    1:56:10 And then a lot of those people get to a point
    1:56:13 where then they’re not employable at the same level,
    1:56:15 but they still have that same lifestyle.
    1:56:18 And even if they have a decent amount of assets,
    1:56:21 they’re then ironically taking less risk with them
    1:56:23 because they’re afraid of losing it,
    1:56:27 which creates this whole negative kind of spiral with that.
    1:56:30 So that’s what I have seen.
    1:56:32 I think it’s easy to have lifestyle creep.
    1:56:35 I mean, I look at my, I always talk to my wife,
    1:56:38 it’s like, when I travel or go out,
    1:56:40 it’s mostly work related.
    1:56:42 So when I look at our personal expenses,
    1:56:44 my wife is not a big spender,
    1:56:46 and I’m very thankful for that.
    1:56:49 But I look at it and these things add up so much.
    1:56:52 And you’re like, how do regular people do this?
    1:56:55 It’s easy for that to happen.
    1:56:57 And the more successful you are, ironically,
    1:56:59 the more people take advantage of you.
    1:57:01 And it’s in subtle ways,
    1:57:05 but it’s definitely one of those things that happens.
    1:57:09 So I understand how things creep up,
    1:57:12 but I come at all of these things from a place of abundance.
    1:57:16 And I have the confidence to go out,
    1:57:18 that I know I can go out and build what I’ve got to build.
    1:57:21 And I earn more than I spend.
    1:57:25 And I really do that through the business
    1:57:28 and compounding it, so I’m certainly fortunate.
    1:57:32 But I think the way that you ultimately combat it
    1:57:35 is to build the skills to be undeniable.
    1:57:37 And then you have the confidence
    1:57:39 that you can go out and earn what you want.
    1:57:43 I mean, I’m so adverse to the thinking of,
    1:57:47 oh, I need to cut my expenses and live.
    1:57:51 To me, the answer isn’t living a lower lifestyle
    1:57:52 in those cases.
    1:57:55 The answer is going out and figuring out a way to add value
    1:57:58 to be able to deserve that lifestyle.
    1:58:00 And that’s not great advice for everybody.
    1:58:02 I mean, everybody’s different,
    1:58:03 but that’s just how I’m built
    1:58:04 and how I have to frame it
    1:58:06 and how I have to think about it.
    1:58:07 – We always end on the same question,
    1:58:10 which is what does success look like for you?
    1:58:11 – What does success look like for me?
    1:58:12 – You’re on your deathbed.
    1:58:17 – Is to not have any regrets of not doing something
    1:58:20 that I knew I should have done.
    1:58:22 Or not have tried something that where I’m saying,
    1:58:27 only if, that is the thing that I think about that every day.
    1:58:30 You know, like when I’m making a decision
    1:58:32 or deciding to go into something,
    1:58:35 like am I gonna regret not trying it?
    1:58:36 And so like, that’s why this personal brand thing,
    1:58:38 I was private for so long
    1:58:42 and I really was scared of going out and being so public.
    1:58:45 And especially in the way that I am now
    1:58:48 or to telling the world I’m going to do something so big.
    1:58:49 It’s really scared me.
    1:58:54 But ultimately, I know that if I didn’t do it
    1:58:56 on my deathbed, I would say to myself,
    1:58:57 “Oh, I wonder only if.”
    1:59:01 And that is just not acceptable to me.
    1:59:03 (upbeat music)
    1:59:10 – Thanks for listening and learning with us.
    1:59:12 The Furnham Street blog is where you can learn more
    1:59:13 about my new book, “Clear Thinking,”
    1:59:17 turning ordinary moments into extraordinary results.
    1:59:19 It’s a transformative guide
    1:59:21 that hands you the tools to master your fate,
    1:59:23 sharpen your decision-making
    1:59:27 and set yourself up for unparalleled success.
    1:59:30 Learn more at fs.blog/clear.
    1:59:31 Until next time.
    1:59:34 (upbeat music)
    1:59:37 [MUSIC PLAYING]
    1:59:44 [BLANK_AUDIO]

    Imagine leaving a six‐figure Wall Street salary behind to chase a single, daring idea. In this episode, David Heacock shows you how he turned a basic product into a $250M empire. At 29, he left Wall Street to bet on air filters. That bet transformed into Filterbuy, now a $250 million direct-to-consumer manufacturer serving more than 7 million customers through a ruthlessly efficient operation. Today we talk about what actually matters when building a business, balancing obsession with family life, selling on Amazon, what he’d do differently if starting over, and the freight decision he calls his biggest mistake. Whether you’re starting a business, scaling one, or simply looking for insights on hiring, managing, or making bold decisions, David shares the lessons that helped him build his empire. 

     

    David Heacock is the founder and CEO of Filterbuy. Before revolutionizing the air filter industry, he traded options at Goldman Sachs from 2005-2012. 

    If you’re driven by bold decisions and value hard-won lessons, this conversation is your playbook. Don’t miss out on the insights that could redefine your own path to success.

    Newsletter – The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at fs.blog/newsletter

    Upgrade — If you want to hear my thoughts and reflections at the end of the episode, join our membership: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠ and get your own private feed.

    Watch on YouTube: @tkppodcast

    (00:02:56) David’s Journey to Goldman Sachs 

    (00:06:07) Committing to Entrepreneurship 

    (00:07:35) The Power of Obsession 

    (00:10:08) The Decision to Expand Geographically 

    (00:12:55) Challenges in Building the First Plant 

    (00:18:58) Management Level Hiring 

    (00:22:41) Studying Operating Systems for Companies 

    (00:24:49) The Nuances of Hiring 

    (00:25:53) External Accountability 

    (00:29:37) Adapting Business Operating Systems 

    (00:30:13) The Role of a Chief of Staff 

    (00:31:03) Building Department-Specific Operating Models 

    (00:32:56) Articulating the Company’s Mission and Values 

    (00:44:19) Understanding Marketing and Branding 

    (00:47:10) The Strategy Behind Intent-Based Marketing 

    (00:52:13) The Decision to Enter Retail 

    (00:57:26) Success in Retail and Customer Acquisition 

    (00:58:19) Diversifying Market Segments 

    (00:59:13) Competitive Advantage Over Other Brands 

    (01:01:07) The Logistics Aspect of the Business 

    (01:04:25) Defining Direct-to-Consumer Brands 

    (01:08:39) Technical Challenges and Overcoming Setbacks 

    (01:11:46) Core Personal Traits for Success 

    (01:16:37) The Power of Obsession Over Willpower 

    (01:17:46) Facing the Hardest Moments in Business 

    (01:26:36) The Decision to Enter the Freight Business 

    (01:30:48) Diversifying into the HVAC Service Business 

    (01:34:51) The Future of HVAC Service Business 

    (01:36:01) Personal Branding and Business Growth 

    (01:37:23) The Role of Marketing and Operations 

    (01:38:48) Contrasting Business Models: Private Equity 

    (01:43:00) The Importance of Mission and Vision 

    (01:47:12) Balancing Obsession and Family Life 

    (01:53:44) The Dangers of Lifestyle Creep and Maintaining Financial Stability 

    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

  • #214 Outliers: Timothy Eaton and The Original ‘Everything Store’

    AI transcript
    0:00:17 [MUSIC]
    0:00:18 Welcome to The Knowledge Project.
    0:00:21 I’m your host, Shane Parish.
    0:00:25 This podcast helps you master
    0:00:28 the best of what other people have already figured out.
    0:00:29 Today, we’re going to do something
    0:00:31 a little different.
    0:00:33 So far, we’ve focused on interviews,
    0:00:36 but I’ve learned as much from reading biographies
    0:00:38 as from interviewing amazing people.
    0:00:41 That’s why we’re starting lessons from outliers.
    0:00:44 Every other week, we’ll study an outlier
    0:00:47 who did remarkable work, from industrialists
    0:00:50 who reimagined commerce to the irreverent personalities
    0:00:53 who changed the foundations of their fields.
    0:00:57 We’ll explore what they did and how they did it.
    0:01:00 The goal isn’t just to tell interesting stories.
    0:01:03 I want to learn the principles, approaches, and patterns
    0:01:06 that can help me in work and life today.
    0:01:07 I want to know the lessons
    0:01:09 that will help me be a better investor,
    0:01:13 a better parent, a better partner, and a better person.
    0:01:15 The people will cover our heroes
    0:01:17 and we should celebrate them.
    0:01:20 That’s not to say that they’re all going to be perfect,
    0:01:22 but it is to say that we’re not going to throw out the orange
    0:01:25 because there might be a little blemish on the peel.
    0:01:27 We can learn something from everyone.
    0:01:29 Whether you’re a regular listener
    0:01:30 or this is your first time here,
    0:01:32 I hope you’ll join me as we learn
    0:01:35 what’s useful and ignore the rest.
    0:01:38 – The content of this podcast
    0:01:41 is for informational and entertainment purposes only
    0:01:44 and should not be considered professional advice.
    0:01:45 Farnham Street Media Inc.
    0:01:47 disclaim any liability for actions
    0:01:48 taken based on its content.
    0:01:51 (upbeat music)
    0:01:56 – We’re starting our new series,
    0:01:59 Lessons from Outliers, with Timothy Eaton,
    0:02:01 a Canadian name that might not be familiar
    0:02:02 to many listeners today,
    0:02:04 but his innovations fundamentally changed retail
    0:02:07 around the world and how we shop.
    0:02:09 Timothy started his business with an obvious idea
    0:02:11 that wasn’t so obvious at the time.
    0:02:13 Tell the truth about your prices
    0:02:15 and stand behind your products.
    0:02:17 With that and many other innovations,
    0:02:19 he built an empire that would, at its height,
    0:02:23 commend 60% of an entire nation’s department store sales.
    0:02:26 This episode is about how he built that empire,
    0:02:28 the principles that drove its success,
    0:02:31 and the forces that eventually brought it all crashing down.
    0:02:34 Whether you’re building a business, leading a team,
    0:02:37 or trying to understand how great companies rise and fall,
    0:02:39 Timothy Eaton’s story offers timeless lessons
    0:02:43 about innovation, trust, and the true price of success.
    0:02:46 You’ll learn why even the mightiest empires can crumble
    0:02:47 when they forget the principles that built them
    0:02:50 and why success, no matter how massive,
    0:02:54 must be earned and re-earned every day.
    0:02:56 It’s time to listen and learn.
    0:03:02 What Amazon is to the internet age,
    0:03:04 what Walmart was to suburban America,
    0:03:08 Eaton’s was to a rapidly industrializing candidate,
    0:03:10 the everything store of its era.
    0:03:14 In 1869, almost a century before Jeff Bezos was born
    0:03:17 in 50 years before Sam Walton and Ikea
    0:03:20 drew their first breasts, there was another name
    0:03:24 that became synonymous with retailing, Timothy Eaton.
    0:03:25 Like many of today’s entrepreneurs,
    0:03:28 this young Irish immigrant bet against
    0:03:30 how things had already been done.
    0:03:34 Only his innovation wasn’t technology, it was trust.
    0:03:37 He would sell everything to anyone at a fixed price
    0:03:38 with a money-back guarantee.
    0:03:41 His slogan, Good Satisfactory or Money Refunded,
    0:03:45 introduced in 1870, sounds obvious today,
    0:03:49 but in 1870, when every transaction was a battle of wits
    0:03:52 and buyer beware was the universal law of commerce,
    0:03:55 this was as revolutionary as one-click ordering
    0:03:57 would become a century later.
    0:03:59 Eaton’s was the birth of an enterprise
    0:04:02 that would become so interwoven with Canadian life
    0:04:04 that you couldn’t tell the story of one
    0:04:07 without the other for nearly a century.
    0:04:09 But like all stories, this one also has an ending.
    0:04:12 130 years later, the Empire Timothy Eaton
    0:04:16 and three generations of descendants had built, crumbled.
    0:04:19 The factors are many, the big ones being a combination
    0:04:22 of complacency, distraction, and being slow to adapt.
    0:04:25 The heirs didn’t help much either.
    0:04:27 At their pinnacle, the Eatons were so dominant
    0:04:30 that it was regarded as virtually unassailable
    0:04:32 because of enormous competitive advantages
    0:04:33 and financial strengths.
    0:04:35 They commanded as much as 60%
    0:04:39 of all department store sales in the country.
    0:04:42 They made so much money that the government told them
    0:04:44 that they were too profitable.
    0:04:47 Seven years later, they would have only 10%
    0:04:48 of all department store sales
    0:04:51 and eventually seek credit or protection.
    0:04:53 The store that was once everything to everyone
    0:04:56 ended up meaning nothing to anyone.
    0:04:59 Could this have been prevented or predicted?
    0:05:01 Let’s explore the story of one of the world’s
    0:05:03 great merchants to see what we can learn.
    0:05:09 Picture Toronto in 1869, no cars, no electricity,
    0:05:11 no telephones, and most importantly,
    0:05:15 no concept of shopping as we know it today.
    0:05:18 Every purchase was a negotiation, every price a secret,
    0:05:21 every transaction a gamble.
    0:05:23 Shopping wasn’t commerce, it was combat.
    0:05:25 We’re skilled hagglers triumphed
    0:05:28 and the unsophisticated buyer was prey.
    0:05:30 Into this chaos stepped Timothy Eaton
    0:05:33 with $6,500 in cash and what would seem like today
    0:05:35 like the most obvious idea in the world,
    0:05:36 tell the truth about your prices,
    0:05:38 charge everyone the same amount
    0:05:39 and stand behind your products.
    0:05:41 Where others saw haggling as tradition,
    0:05:43 he saw it as friction.
    0:05:45 Where others saw returns as lost profit,
    0:05:48 he saw them as investments in trust.
    0:05:50 Where others saw chaos as inevitable,
    0:05:53 he saw an opportunity for a system.
    0:05:54 Imagine walking into a store
    0:05:57 where the merchant sized you up before quoting a price.
    0:06:00 Charging a banker, double what they’d charge a laborer
    0:06:02 for the same item or returning a defective item
    0:06:06 was met with mockery and shame rather than a refund.
    0:06:09 Where buyer beware wasn’t just a saying,
    0:06:12 it was the fundamental principle of commerce itself.
    0:06:15 This was the world that Timothy Eaton would change forever.
    0:06:18 Timothy Eaton’s origin story
    0:06:20 is less about individual circumstances
    0:06:24 than the collision of forces that would reshape commerce.
    0:06:26 Ireland’s poverty story creating waves
    0:06:28 of ambitious emigrants,
    0:06:31 Canadian railways connecting previously isolated markets
    0:06:34 and an outdated credit-based trading system
    0:06:35 ready to be disrupted.
    0:06:39 Born the ninth child of John and Margaret Eaton
    0:06:41 with his father dying before his birth,
    0:06:43 Timothy’s early life was shaped
    0:06:46 by the harsh realities of 1850s Ireland
    0:06:50 where opportunity was scarce and emigration common.
    0:06:52 While his formal schooling ended at 13,
    0:06:54 his real education came during an apprenticeship
    0:06:57 at a general store in Port Lagone.
    0:06:59 There he mastered retail’s fundamental equations,
    0:07:01 the relationship between inventory and cash flow,
    0:07:03 the tension between credit and risk,
    0:07:06 and the delicate balance between merchant and customer.
    0:07:11 When he joined the exodus of 150,000 Irish emigrants in 1854,
    0:07:14 he brought two crucial assets with him,
    0:07:16 an ironwork ethic and a deep understanding
    0:07:19 of commerce’s flaws and how to fix them.
    0:07:21 Landing in Upper Canada in 1854,
    0:07:25 he arrived at a perfect moment of transformation.
    0:07:27 Railways were connecting isolated markets,
    0:07:29 workers were earning regular wages
    0:07:31 instead of seasonal farm income,
    0:07:33 and for the first time ever ordinary people,
    0:07:35 factory hands, clerks, domestic servants,
    0:07:38 had predictable money to spend.
    0:07:41 While established merchants dismissed these common customers,
    0:07:43 Eaton saw something revolutionary.
    0:07:47 Every butcher boy, snip and snob complained
    0:07:50 one Toronto grocer was excessively given to dress
    0:07:52 and wearing rich things and such foolery,
    0:07:56 but where others saw vulgarity, Eaton saw validation.
    0:07:59 A new middle class with steady income and aspirations.
    0:08:02 The economic crisis of the 1850s
    0:08:04 had exposed the fatal flaw in traditional retail.
    0:08:06 In a credit-based system,
    0:08:09 one failure could trigger a chain reaction of bankruptcies,
    0:08:12 but Eaton’s solution wasn’t to demand cash only sales,
    0:08:13 that would have been impossible.
    0:08:16 Instead, he created a brilliant incentive,
    0:08:18 better prices for cash payments.
    0:08:19 This wasn’t just clever pricing,
    0:08:22 it was behavior engineering at scale.
    0:08:25 Year after year, his book showed increasing cash transactions.
    0:08:28 He was simultaneously teaching customers a new way to shop
    0:08:30 while removing risk from his business.
    0:08:32 More importantly, he was building a system
    0:08:34 that could grow without breaking
    0:08:38 and the most powerful force behind it all, relentlessness.
    0:08:40 Eaton brought the same intensity to retail
    0:08:42 that Edison brought to invention,
    0:08:45 testing, refining and competing daily.
    0:08:47 His early stores became laboratories
    0:08:50 where each transaction taught him something new
    0:08:51 about the future of commerce.
    0:08:53 Here’s what made him different.
    0:08:54 He was a master at observation
    0:08:58 and combining existing ideas in new ways.
    0:09:00 Fixed prices, money-back guarantees,
    0:09:02 direct buying from manufacturers.
    0:09:05 These pieces existed in isolation.
    0:09:08 Eaton’s genius was to weave them together
    0:09:10 into an unstoppable system.
    0:09:12 This pattern is repeated in business history.
    0:09:14 The greatest innovations often come not
    0:09:15 from inventing something new,
    0:09:17 but taking an existing idea
    0:09:21 to its logical conclusion with relentless execution.
    0:09:23 While others treated money-back guarantees
    0:09:24 as marketing gimmicks,
    0:09:27 Eaton built his entire business model around trust.
    0:09:34 When Timothy Eaton opened his Toronto store in 1869,
    0:09:35 it wasn’t just another shop.
    0:09:38 It was a laboratory for testing his theories
    0:09:39 about the future of retail.
    0:09:42 The location was perfect, 178 Yonge Street.
    0:09:44 At a busy intersection where every merchant
    0:09:46 dreamed of setting up shop.
    0:09:48 The price, however, reflected this.
    0:09:52 $6,500 for the existing inventory and Goodwill.
    0:09:54 Demanding every single penny
    0:09:57 that he’d managed to save or borrow.
    0:09:58 The store was tiny.
    0:10:02 It was just 24 feet across by 60 feet deep.
    0:10:04 But what happened inside that small store
    0:10:06 would change retail forever.
    0:10:07 One employee recalled,
    0:10:10 “I have seen Mr. Eaton standing at the end of a counter,
    0:10:13 watching a customer purchase a pair of stockings.
    0:10:15 When she had gone, he would ask whether the goods
    0:10:17 would go any more rapidly if he offered in groups
    0:10:21 of two or three pairs at the price reduced in bulk.”
    0:10:24 Rather than just think he had a better idea,
    0:10:26 he would test it by the afternoon.
    0:10:29 Eaton had discovered discount retailing.
    0:10:31 Lower prices drive higher volume
    0:10:33 and higher volume enables lower prices.
    0:10:35 Though you earn less per item,
    0:10:37 you make more money overall
    0:10:39 because you sell many more items.
    0:10:42 Discount retailing is built on the foundation of fixed prices.
    0:10:45 This virtuous cycle, which Sam Walton and later Jim Senegal
    0:10:47 would turn into billion dollar empires
    0:10:49 at Walmart and Costco was tested behind a counter
    0:10:51 in Toronto a century earlier.
    0:10:53 Timothy Eaton was obsessed with details
    0:10:56 and became a human analytics engine.
    0:10:58 He was constantly fiddling with the status quo,
    0:11:00 trying to make something better, testing his ideas,
    0:11:04 watching, observing, obsessing, experimenting.
    0:11:05 This wasn’t commerce,
    0:11:08 it was the scientific method applied to retail.
    0:11:10 Timothy Eaton got up early every day
    0:11:12 and tried to improve something.
    0:11:15 His famous cash only policy wasn’t born from ideology,
    0:11:17 it came from cold reality.
    0:11:18 In his small town days,
    0:11:21 Timothy knew every customer’s story,
    0:11:23 their harvest prospects, their payment history,
    0:11:26 their family situation and even the latest gossip.
    0:11:28 But in the big city with its flood of strangers,
    0:11:30 he needed a system that would work
    0:11:33 without the personal knowledge of every customer.
    0:11:35 The early days would have broken a weaker man.
    0:11:36 The inventory he inherited
    0:11:38 when he purchased his first store on Young Street
    0:11:42 was what modern merchants would call distressed merchandise.
    0:11:45 Though Timothy’s private letters to his brother James
    0:11:48 used considerably more colorful language to describe it.
    0:11:51 He was forced to sell dresses at 15 cents per yard
    0:11:53 that had cost him 35 cents.
    0:11:55 And even at those ruinous prices,
    0:11:58 the goods moved at the speed of cold molasses.
    0:11:59 However, where others saw losses,
    0:12:01 Timothy saw something different,
    0:12:04 a chance to build trust through transparency.
    0:12:06 Every markdown was advertised openly
    0:12:09 with the original and new prices clearly stated.
    0:12:11 Even when losing money,
    0:12:13 he was gaining something more valuable,
    0:12:15 customer confidence and trust.
    0:12:19 While other stores divided their spaces
    0:12:20 into broad categories,
    0:12:23 Eaton’s created detailed subcategories
    0:12:25 for better information and shopping.
    0:12:26 These were not just departments
    0:12:28 to help customers know where to look.
    0:12:31 There were data streams feeding into an accounting system,
    0:12:33 allowing him to track every item’s movement
    0:12:36 through his store with unprecedented precision.
    0:12:39 Timothy Eaton’s obsession with knowing the details
    0:12:41 no one else was paying attention to
    0:12:44 created an information advantage long before computers.
    0:12:46 When he made buttons, its own category,
    0:12:48 he wasn’t just being organized,
    0:12:50 he was creating detailed data.
    0:12:53 Timothy Eaton could tell you how many buttons he’d sold
    0:12:55 on which day, how fast they moved
    0:12:57 and at which prices and who was buying them.
    0:13:00 His hiring strategy was just a systematic
    0:13:02 but with a twist that was a century ahead of its time.
    0:13:05 Starting with just four employees in 1869,
    0:13:09 two men, a woman and a boy, by 1881,
    0:13:12 he had 36 sales clerks and 12 seamstresses.
    0:13:13 He hired mostly women,
    0:13:15 not just because they cost less at the time,
    0:13:17 but because his fixed price system
    0:13:21 had eliminated the need for aggressive mail haggling.
    0:13:23 It was an early example of how good systems
    0:13:26 could create new opportunities by eliminating bad behavior.
    0:13:28 His marketing targeted factory paydays
    0:13:30 with military precision.
    0:13:33 He didn’t just distribute 40,000 flyers randomly
    0:13:34 all over the city and call it a day.
    0:13:38 No, this was a precisely timed operation.
    0:13:41 Every detail was mapped, which streets to target,
    0:13:43 when workers got paid,
    0:13:46 which neighborhoods had the most weekly wage earners.
    0:13:49 While other merchants chased wealthy customers with carriages,
    0:13:52 Timothy built a system to serve thousands
    0:13:54 with weekly paychecks.
    0:13:56 One employee noted that unlike other stores,
    0:13:59 it was an unusual sight to see a carriage
    0:14:00 at the door of the store.
    0:14:03 He wasn’t betting on the rich few with their carriages,
    0:14:05 he was betting on the many with their weekly paychecks.
    0:14:07 He chose volume over margins,
    0:14:09 the rising power of the working class
    0:14:11 over the carriage riding elite.
    0:14:14 Eaton’s was a place for the working masses,
    0:14:15 not for the privileged elite.
    0:14:20 By 1880, Eaton’s success had created
    0:14:22 every entrepreneur’s favorite problem.
    0:14:25 His business had outgrown its space.
    0:14:26 The store couldn’t expand farther
    0:14:28 without demolishing the church next to it,
    0:14:32 which was a step too far, even for Timothy’s ambitions.
    0:14:35 His solution in 1883 was the kind of bet
    0:14:38 that separates great entrepreneurs from good ones.
    0:14:41 He mortgaged everything, literally every penny he had
    0:14:44 to buy an entire city block for $41,000,
    0:14:48 using $36,000 in borrowed money.
    0:14:49 For those keeping tabs,
    0:14:53 that’s an 87.8% loan-to-value ratio.
    0:14:55 He had no room for error here.
    0:14:57 But what came next was even crazier.
    0:14:59 He announced that he would tear down
    0:15:02 what locals considered the finest block of retail stores
    0:15:06 in the entire city and replace it with something entirely new,
    0:15:11 a single, massive space that would reinvent shopping itself.
    0:15:12 He wasn’t just betting his business.
    0:15:15 He was betting his entire life’s work
    0:15:17 on a vision that only he could see.
    0:15:20 Everyone thought he was crazy, but he went all in.
    0:15:23 He went all in on himself.
    0:15:24 This is the founder’s mentality.
    0:15:27 He believed in his idea, even when others didn’t.
    0:15:29 When Reverend John Potts toured
    0:15:32 the new 25,000-foot location,
    0:15:34 20 times larger than the original store,
    0:15:36 the clergyman was moved to tears.
    0:15:38 He said, “I am so sorry, Mr. Eaton.
    0:15:39 You are ruined.
    0:15:42 What will you do with this great barn of a place?”
    0:15:44 Timothy’s response was six words
    0:15:47 that encapsulated his entire philosophy.
    0:15:50 Fill it with goods and sell them.
    0:15:52 The building itself wasn’t just architecture,
    0:15:54 it was retail innovation.
    0:15:56 Lightwells topped by skylights pierced
    0:15:57 through the building’s core,
    0:16:00 allowing natural light to flood all floors,
    0:16:01 crucial in an era where the upper floors
    0:16:04 were typically dim-lit caves.
    0:16:06 But things that work at one scale
    0:16:07 often break at another.
    0:16:10 What worked when an owner could watch every transaction
    0:16:12 wouldn’t work in a massive operation.
    0:16:15 This is a lesson modern startups keep learning.
    0:16:18 Systems that work for 10 people often break at 100,
    0:16:21 and what works for 100 can collapse at 1,000.
    0:16:23 His nephew, John James Eaton,
    0:16:26 described the chaos of January 1884.
    0:16:28 There was no management.
    0:16:29 Everyone was doing as they like,
    0:16:31 no connection between one another
    0:16:33 and a constant disagreement
    0:16:35 and a constant quarreling between departments.
    0:16:36 It was the kind of crisis
    0:16:39 that either killed a company or transformed it.
    0:16:42 The solution combined family and systems.
    0:16:46 Timothy’s son, Edward Young Eaton became partner in 1888
    0:16:48 while nephew John James was tasked
    0:16:50 with bringing order to the chaos.
    0:16:54 John didn’t just manage, he rebuilt the entire system.
    0:16:57 When he discovered employees spending long breaks
    0:16:58 in the saloon across the street,
    0:17:01 he fired 40 people in a single day.
    0:17:03 Can you imagine that happening today?
    0:17:07 The standards were clear and unwavering.
    0:17:08 Even when fighting internal fires,
    0:17:10 external challenges tested Eaton
    0:17:13 when his Glasgow supplier tried to take advantage of him
    0:17:16 by demanding immediate payment of $6,600
    0:17:17 and refused future credit.
    0:17:20 Timothy didn’t just solve the problem, he eliminated it.
    0:17:22 He created a separate company
    0:17:25 under his son, Edward’s name to handle purchasing.
    0:17:27 Problems are just opportunities.
    0:17:30 This reminds me of the story in Brad Jacobs book
    0:17:32 how to make a few billion dollars.
    0:17:33 And we had Brad on the podcast a while ago,
    0:17:36 so I definitely recommend you check out that episode.
    0:17:41 But at a memorable lunch with his mentor, Ludwig Jesselsen,
    0:17:44 Brad sat down and he started to unload
    0:17:46 all of his problems and frustrations.
    0:17:48 And Jesselsen listened carefully
    0:17:49 and then he put his fork down
    0:17:50 and he just looked at Brad and he said,
    0:17:53 “Look, Brad, if you wanna make money in the business world,
    0:17:55 you need to get used to problems
    0:17:57 because that’s what business is.
    0:18:00 It’s actually about finding problems, embracing
    0:18:02 and even enjoying them because each problem
    0:18:04 is an opportunity to remove an obstacle
    0:18:06 and get closer to success.”
    0:18:11 In 1884, Timothy launched something
    0:18:14 that would change everything, the Wishing Book,
    0:18:16 though farmers called it the Farmers Bible.
    0:18:18 Calling it just a catalog
    0:18:20 would be like calling Amazon just a website.
    0:18:23 Timothy had built a portal to the modern world
    0:18:26 for millions of isolated rural Canadians.
    0:18:29 Imagine being a farmer hundreds of miles from civilization
    0:18:32 where your possibilities end up what you can make or trade.
    0:18:34 Now suddenly you had access to everything
    0:18:38 from parish fashions and English tea sets to German pianos.
    0:18:40 Need an entire house?
    0:18:43 Eatons would ship you every single board and nail
    0:18:45 and window with instructions.
    0:18:48 And everything came with that revolutionary guarantee,
    0:18:51 good satisfactory or money refunded.
    0:18:54 Think about this, before Silicon Valley invented data analytics,
    0:18:57 Eatons was using catalog orders to predict demand.
    0:18:58 Before FedEx existed,
    0:19:01 Eatons had built a delivery network so reliable
    0:19:04 that Canadian towns planned their mail service around it.
    0:19:07 At times of year when the catalog was being released,
    0:19:09 there was coordination between Eatons and the Postal Service
    0:19:11 to employ more delivery people
    0:19:14 and schedule more trains to fulfill the expected demand.
    0:19:18 Eatons would encourage customers to write them with suggestions
    0:19:19 as to what other goods they should carry
    0:19:23 and created new departments based on the feedback they received.
    0:19:26 They were solving tomorrow’s problems a century early,
    0:19:28 supply chain management, predictive analytics
    0:19:29 and last mile delivery.
    0:19:35 Timothy ruled with an iron fist in the velvet glove,
    0:19:37 but both served the system.
    0:19:39 Employees quaked in their boots around him,
    0:19:43 yet the same autocrat would reward initiative generously.
    0:19:46 He wasn’t enforcing rules for rules sake,
    0:19:47 he was maintaining the standards
    0:19:49 that made the entire system work.
    0:19:52 Even as employees dreaded his criticism,
    0:19:54 they understood its purpose.
    0:19:57 Even as they resisted his autocratic style,
    0:19:58 they grew under his talent development.
    0:20:01 His growth philosophy shows in one exchange.
    0:20:04 Mr. M, what do you know about menswear?
    0:20:06 He asked a clerk.
    0:20:09 Mr. Eaton, I don’t know a thing, came the reply.
    0:20:12 Timothy responded, good, then you’ll learn.
    0:20:15 Eatons was becoming dominant,
    0:20:17 but Timothy Eaton wasn’t motivated by money,
    0:20:20 he was motivated by the desire to be the best,
    0:20:21 he was relentless.
    0:20:24 One newspaper described Timothy Eaton this way,
    0:20:28 Mr. Eaton is unique, he is not a man of words or fireworks,
    0:20:30 he is modest and retiring to a fault.
    0:20:34 Indeed, it is difficult for even an expert reporter
    0:20:36 to get half a dozen sentences out of him,
    0:20:38 but he is a man who does things.
    0:20:41 In the language of the motto, he does it now,
    0:20:43 and he seems to do them in such a way
    0:20:45 that they become talked about.
    0:20:48 (gentle music)
    0:20:51 Sometimes history turns on a single moment,
    0:20:55 but decline happens like rust slowly and then suddenly.
    0:20:57 On a crisp autumn day in 1899,
    0:21:00 Timothy Eaton’s horses spooked on the way home.
    0:21:03 The resulting broken hip left him in a wheelchair,
    0:21:05 but the real impact wasn’t physical,
    0:21:08 it forced him to hand over his empire before he was ready.
    0:21:10 The weight of his empire fell to his youngest son,
    0:21:12 John Craig, Jack Eaton.
    0:21:14 Their early conversations about leadership
    0:21:16 contain a lesson in simplicity.
    0:21:18 Jack said to his father,
    0:21:21 “What do I have to say as vice president?”
    0:21:24 And Timothy replied, “Can you say yes and no?
    0:21:25 “Yes, I can do that.
    0:21:28 “Can you decide which one to say at the right time?”
    0:21:30 Well, that might be different,
    0:21:32 but it’s all you have to do.
    0:21:34 In those eight words, can you decide
    0:21:36 which one to say at the right time
    0:21:38 laid Timothy Eaton’s entire philosophy
    0:21:41 of systematic decision-making?
    0:21:44 Timothy Eaton died on January 31st, 1907.
    0:21:47 Jack, who had been running things since 1899,
    0:21:50 would no longer have the wise year of his father.
    0:21:51 Jack would be different.
    0:21:53 Where Timothy had been the system builder
    0:21:55 who changed retail through discipline,
    0:21:58 relentless effort, obsessive attention to detail,
    0:21:59 and adapting to the data,
    0:22:01 Jack would be the showman who’d expand it
    0:22:04 through spectacle and scale.
    0:22:06 Jack looked the part, five nine,
    0:22:07 chestnut hair with gold highlights,
    0:22:10 turning heads in his fond colored coats.
    0:22:11 His blue eyes and ready smile
    0:22:12 couldn’t have been more different
    0:22:14 from his father’s hardened face.
    0:22:17 Jack was the roaring 20s personified
    0:22:19 before anyone knew what that meant
    0:22:20 or why it might be dangerous.
    0:22:24 (upbeat music)
    0:22:26 Jack saw something his father never did.
    0:22:29 Shopping wasn’t just business, it was theater.
    0:22:32 Timothy Eaton built trust through consistency.
    0:22:35 Jack Eaton would build an empire through theater.
    0:22:37 His first act, transforming the entire floor
    0:22:40 of Toronto store into Toyland at Christmas.
    0:22:42 But his master stroke was the Santa Claus parade.
    0:22:44 What started small, which was Santa
    0:22:46 on a packing crate on a wagon,
    0:22:49 became legendary live reindeer shipped from Labrador.
    0:22:51 Massive floats took months to build.
    0:22:53 City streets closed.
    0:22:55 The numbers tell the story.
    0:22:59 15,000 kids riding to Santa by 1919.
    0:23:00 But the real story was bigger.
    0:23:03 Jack had turned shopping into magic.
    0:23:06 The trouble with magic is that it depends on illusion
    0:23:08 where Timothy’s system had been built
    0:23:10 on brutal honesty about what customers wanted
    0:23:12 and what it cost to serve them.
    0:23:14 (upbeat music)
    0:23:16 Jack’s biggest bet was out West
    0:23:18 when he proposed expanding to Winnipeg,
    0:23:20 1500 miles from Toronto.
    0:23:23 His father thought managing it would be impossible.
    0:23:26 The gateway to the Golden West wasn’t just risky,
    0:23:29 it was crazy, but sometimes crazy works.
    0:23:31 After all, everyone told Timothy Eaton
    0:23:33 he was crazy to buy a city block with debt,
    0:23:37 tear it down and build one ginormous store.
    0:23:40 But picture Winnipeg in 1910, 75,000 people
    0:23:42 and more millionaires than Toronto.
    0:23:45 The Hudson’s Bay Company, the only real competitor
    0:23:48 to Eaton’s owned the prime real estate there.
    0:23:49 But Jack saw something bigger.
    0:23:52 Here’s how a local paper described
    0:23:54 how it was done at the time.
    0:23:57 When the decision was reached to locate Winnipeg,
    0:24:00 negotiations were set on foot and carried out silently
    0:24:02 and swiftly until the land required
    0:24:05 for a centuries expansion was acquired.
    0:24:08 There was no noise, no flourish, no trumpets.
    0:24:09 The transaction was simply carried out
    0:24:12 and then came the erection of the store.
    0:24:14 Not only did the Eaton family move in silence,
    0:24:16 but they moved quickly.
    0:24:17 From the time the first sod was turned
    0:24:20 to the opening day was under a year.
    0:24:23 On the first day, tens of thousands of people showed up.
    0:24:25 It would only increase.
    0:24:27 The scale was mind-boggling.
    0:24:30 6,000 people were eating daily in their restaurants,
    0:24:33 from workers’ cafeterias to the oak paneled grow room
    0:24:37 or string quartets played on lunch served with fine china.
    0:24:39 Staff numbers nearly doubled in a week
    0:24:41 from 700 to 1,250.
    0:24:44 First year sales hit 2.5 million,
    0:24:46 numbers that would have seemed impossible
    0:24:49 to Timothy just a decade earlier.
    0:24:51 Keep in mind, this is 1910.
    0:24:54 This is crazy, 2.5 million out of a single location.
    0:24:57 Over 15 years, it grew like a week.
    0:25:00 Three more stories up, two massive mail order buildings.
    0:25:04 By 1919, Eaton’s and Winnipeg covered 21 acres
    0:25:07 and employed 8,000 people.
    0:25:09 Eaton’s wasn’t just a store,
    0:25:11 but a city within a city.
    0:25:16 Jack built his empire by placing pieces on a chessboard.
    0:25:18 1916, a massive warehouse in Saskatoon
    0:25:20 for furniture and farm equipment.
    0:25:23 1917, Regina, standing there during construction,
    0:25:25 Jack pointed west and said something
    0:25:26 that would prove prophetic.
    0:25:28 There’s our future market.
    0:25:30 They framed his footprints in the wet cement,
    0:25:33 a literal impression of the empire building in progress.
    0:25:35 At this point, the catalog had become more than a book.
    0:25:39 At 588 pages and 9,000 illustrations,
    0:25:42 it was becoming the story of a nation itself.
    0:25:44 You could buy anything from 395 fiddles
    0:25:49 to entire houses for $999.77.
    0:25:52 When a town founded by Kennedy Northern Railway in 1917,
    0:25:56 named itself Eaton, later changed to Eatonia,
    0:25:58 it wasn’t just flattery, it was recognition
    0:26:00 that Eaton’s had become woven
    0:26:02 into the very fabric of Canadian life.
    0:26:08 But Jack’s real genius, he didn’t just build stores,
    0:26:10 he built a community.
    0:26:13 Starting in 1911, he created a world inside his company,
    0:26:17 baseball leagues, hockey teams, and cricket clubs.
    0:26:19 Female employees got something unheard of.
    0:26:22 Downtown Toronto clubs with pools, gyms, and libraries,
    0:26:23 he even built a summer camp
    0:26:25 where workers could vacation affordably.
    0:26:28 Then came 1919’s Golden Jubilee,
    0:26:29 the company’s 50th anniversary
    0:26:31 and Jack’s boldest move yet,
    0:26:33 the five and a half day work week.
    0:26:37 Saturday closing year round, not just in summer.
    0:26:39 This wasn’t charity, it was strategy.
    0:26:40 Jack knew something timeless.
    0:26:42 Happy workers build empires.
    0:26:47 By the 1920s, Eaton’s controlled an unprecedented 60%
    0:26:49 of Canadian department store sales.
    0:26:51 When rumors spread of an American buyout attempt,
    0:26:53 Jack’s response became legend.
    0:26:55 There’s not enough money in the whole world
    0:26:56 to buy my father’s name.
    0:26:59 Royal customers didn’t just use the catalog,
    0:27:01 they called it the Bible.
    0:27:03 This was the height of Eaton’s power.
    0:27:06 Below the veneer, however, danger was brewing.
    0:27:09 Jack’s genius for entertainment and expansion
    0:27:10 had a bit of a hidden cause.
    0:27:12 It slowly diverted focus
    0:27:14 from the core principles of excellence and value.
    0:27:18 Less attention to the details and more to theatrics.
    0:27:20 Where Timothy had built an everything store
    0:27:21 by being the best at everything
    0:27:23 and adapting to customers,
    0:27:26 Jack built an empire by being the biggest at everything.
    0:27:29 At first, the difference was too small to notice.
    0:27:32 However, in business, small differences compounded
    0:27:34 both positively and negatively.
    0:27:37 By the 1920s, Eaton’s wasn’t just a store anymore,
    0:27:39 it was an event.
    0:27:40 The mightiest empires can crumble
    0:27:43 when they forget the principles that built them.
    0:27:45 When Jack died in 1922,
    0:27:47 he left behind a dangerous gift,
    0:27:49 a seemingly perfect business.
    0:27:51 The numbers were incredible.
    0:27:55 Sales had exploded from 22 million in 1907
    0:27:57 to 141 million in 1920.
    0:28:00 The catalog alone brought in 60 million.
    0:28:03 They owned 60% of the entire country’s
    0:28:04 department store sales.
    0:28:07 The company was so dominant in the 1920s and early 30s
    0:28:10 that government criticized their profit margins.
    0:28:13 Eaton’s developed the strangest corporate pathology ever,
    0:28:15 a fear of being too successful.
    0:28:18 Greg purchased their former COO, put it perfectly.
    0:28:20 Store managers could actually get in trouble
    0:28:22 for being too successful.
    0:28:23 Think of it with that paradox.
    0:28:24 In a competitive market,
    0:28:27 where survival requires constant reinvestment,
    0:28:29 you could be punished for making the company too much money.
    0:28:30 How Canadian?
    0:28:37 By the 1930s, what had started as a slight drift
    0:28:40 from Timothy’s principles had become a widening gulf.
    0:28:43 Like a ship that’s off course by one degree,
    0:28:45 it’s kind of insignificant at first,
    0:28:48 but leading to an entirely different destination.
    0:28:51 The Great Depression exposed the first cracks
    0:28:53 in what looked like perfect armor.
    0:28:54 While the stores were bleeding money,
    0:28:57 the Queen Street flagship lost 2 million in two years.
    0:28:59 The family kept paying themselves massive dividends
    0:29:03 of $525,555 annually,
    0:29:05 perhaps giving them the illusion
    0:29:06 that they owned a money machine
    0:29:10 when what they really owned required constant reinvestment.
    0:29:12 This was when the cancer started.
    0:29:14 Real estate and credit operations
    0:29:16 generated reliable profits,
    0:29:19 which massed deeper problems in the retail operation.
    0:29:21 People just were not shopping at Eaton’s
    0:29:22 as much as they used to.
    0:29:24 And if there’s any law of retailing,
    0:29:26 you must serve the customer.
    0:29:28 Retailing is not for the faint of heart.
    0:29:31 It’s a difficult business that requires constant vigilance
    0:29:34 as soon as one problem is solved, another services.
    0:29:37 Advantages, even ones that seem insurmountable
    0:29:39 prove temporary at best.
    0:29:40 During the Depression,
    0:29:42 things started to go off track for Eaton’s.
    0:29:44 The company made some unforced errors,
    0:29:46 two of which I want to highlight.
    0:29:49 First, they put much more focus on high-end customers
    0:29:52 and much less focus on the everyday working class.
    0:29:55 Second, they failed to see how automobiles
    0:29:58 drove people out of the core and into the suburbs
    0:30:01 and how that influenced the rise of suburban retail.
    0:30:03 The days when Timothy Eaton courted
    0:30:05 the everyday blue collar customer,
    0:30:06 handing out flyers to workers
    0:30:08 who just got a paycheck were gone.
    0:30:10 The family had fallen into a trap
    0:30:13 that still snares successful companies.
    0:30:16 They started serving customers like themselves, wealthy ones,
    0:30:20 forgetting that their wealth had come from serving everyone else.
    0:30:23 The Toronto College Street store tells the whole story.
    0:30:27 It was opened in 1930, and it was a monument to wealth
    0:30:30 that perfectly symbolized not only the time,
    0:30:33 but how far they’d strayed from Timothy’s principles.
    0:30:36 There was ivory, limestone, marble pillars,
    0:30:39 and even a replica of Mary Antoinette’s
    0:30:40 bedroom on the fifth floor.
    0:30:42 There was one small problem.
    0:30:45 Nobody could afford to shop there.
    0:30:47 The company that had invented modern retail
    0:30:49 and forced all of its competitors to change
    0:30:52 suddenly had a stubborn resistance to change.
    0:30:55 While competitors built suburban stores
    0:30:57 in the late ’20s, ’30s, ’40s, and ’50s,
    0:31:01 Eaton’s clung to downtown like a captain to a sinking ship.
    0:31:04 When Canada’s first mall opened in Vancouver in 1950,
    0:31:07 when Eaton’s executive dismissed it
    0:31:10 with a bit of hubris saying, “It’ll never work.”
    0:31:12 The rise of the automobile meant
    0:31:14 that shopping habits were changing.
    0:31:16 Suburban malls popped up, and with them,
    0:31:18 the rapid growth of discount retailers
    0:31:22 and big box stores based on low prices and high volumes.
    0:31:23 Eaton’s wasn’t the only retailer
    0:31:26 with enormous amounts of capital and fixed assets
    0:31:29 facing sector changing, demographic, and retailing trends,
    0:31:32 but they certainly didn’t do themselves any favors.
    0:31:36 Eaton’s didn’t die from one big mistake.
    0:31:38 They died from 1,000 tiny ones.
    0:31:39 Take credit cards.
    0:31:43 While competitors embraced bank cards in the 1950s,
    0:31:47 Eaton’s clung to their own system until 1981.
    0:31:49 Their logic showcased the ultimate danger
    0:31:50 of inherited success.
    0:31:53 They confused Timothy’s principles with his practices.
    0:31:55 They said Timothy believed in cash only
    0:31:57 so they had to honor his tradition.
    0:31:59 Never mind that Timothy’s real tradition
    0:32:02 was giving customers what they wanted and adapting.
    0:32:05 The catalog story perfectly captures
    0:32:07 how organizations calcify.
    0:32:09 Well, Simpson’s Sears Revolutionized Layouts
    0:32:12 and Photography, Eaton spent months
    0:32:14 debating page sizes.
    0:32:16 Their biggest innovation of the 1960s,
    0:32:18 making the catalogs smaller,
    0:32:20 nine and three quarters by 12 inches,
    0:32:22 changing to eight by 11.
    0:32:23 And their whole reasoning,
    0:32:25 when housewives stacked catalogs,
    0:32:28 they’d put Eaton’s on top, being the smallest.
    0:32:30 This was now their idea of innovation.
    0:32:32 How far have you fallen?
    0:32:34 The core problem is simple.
    0:32:38 Bureaucracy’s optimized for bureaucrats, not for results.
    0:32:41 Reminds me of something Charlie Munger commented on.
    0:32:43 He said, “Bureaucracy is terrible.”
    0:32:45 And as things get very powerful and very big,
    0:32:48 you can get some really dysfunctional behavior.
    0:32:50 The numbers tell the story.
    0:32:53 Simpson’s Sears started from zero in 1952,
    0:32:56 hit 500 million in sales by 1965.
    0:33:00 Eaton’s 700 million just slightly ahead, but losing money.
    0:33:03 The catalog division lost $2 to $10 million annually.
    0:33:05 Same market, same business,
    0:33:08 same target customers, opposite results.
    0:33:12 I wanna talk about the period from 1970 to 1985.
    0:33:16 Complacent institutions become monuments to their own success.
    0:33:18 With less profits, the company invested less
    0:33:19 in its own infrastructure.
    0:33:21 At the same time, competitors started to move
    0:33:23 into Eaton’s core markets with brand new stores.
    0:33:26 And Eaton’s infrastructure was starting to show
    0:33:27 the strains of underinvestment.
    0:33:29 At the same time, the family was living the good life,
    0:33:31 buying helipads and yachts.
    0:33:34 The contrast had me thinking a little bit about Timothy Eaton
    0:33:36 and what he would say looking down on his empire
    0:33:39 that reminded me of something Sam Walton said
    0:33:40 in his book Made in America.
    0:33:43 Some families sell their stock off a little at a time
    0:33:46 to live high and then boom, somebody takes them over
    0:33:48 and it all goes down the drain.
    0:33:49 One of the reasons I’m writing this book
    0:33:51 is so my grandchildren and great grandchildren
    0:33:53 will read it years from now and know this.
    0:33:56 If you start any of that foolishness,
    0:33:57 I’ll come back and haunt you.
    0:33:59 So don’t even think about it.
    0:34:02 I think Timothy Eaton would agree with that.
    0:34:06 By the 1980s, Eaton’s didn’t know what it was anymore.
    0:34:08 Was it upscale mass market?
    0:34:11 The stores were as confused as the strategy,
    0:34:14 ranging from 90,000 square feet to 1 million square feet
    0:34:16 with no clear purpose connecting them.
    0:34:19 Then came George Eaton’s big idea in 1990.
    0:34:21 Every day value pricing.
    0:34:24 No more sales, no more promotions, just like Walmart,
    0:34:26 except Eaton’s wasn’t Walmart.
    0:34:29 They didn’t have Walmart’s obsessive cost control,
    0:34:31 logistic efficiency or customer focus.
    0:34:35 They’d taken Walmart’s strategy without Walmart’s system.
    0:34:38 The disconnect shows in one perfect exchange.
    0:34:40 Bill Hughes and Eaton’s buyer for decades
    0:34:44 accosted George saying, you can’t run Eaton’s like Walmart.
    0:34:46 Oh yes, we can, snapped George.
    0:34:48 We don’t have to advertise.
    0:34:50 Walmart advertises, replies Hughes.
    0:34:53 I wanted to see what Warren Buffett had to say
    0:34:55 about retailing, so I looked it up.
    0:34:57 After all, he had owned two department stores at one point
    0:35:00 and exited them as quickly as possible.
    0:35:02 As if talking about Eaton’s Buffett said,
    0:35:04 he wasn’t talking about Eaton’s,
    0:35:05 but he could have been talking about Eaton’s.
    0:35:07 He said, during my investment career,
    0:35:09 I’ve watched a large number of retailers
    0:35:13 enjoy terrific growth and suburb returns on equity
    0:35:16 for a period and then suddenly nosedive,
    0:35:19 often all the way into bankruptcy.
    0:35:22 His conclusion, a retailer must stay smart day after day.
    0:35:24 It was too hard.
    0:35:27 Munger added his characteristic wit to this commenting
    0:35:28 on their adventures in retailing,
    0:35:31 saying it’s like the story of a man who buys a yacht.
    0:35:33 The two happy days are the days he buys it
    0:35:35 and the day he sells it.
    0:35:36 Retailing can be a good business.
    0:35:39 Of course, Costco is a great example of this,
    0:35:41 which we may cover in a future episode.
    0:35:43 It’s kind of retail with a twist.
    0:35:46 The end of Eaton’s reads like a business school warning label.
    0:35:48 What happens when you adapt slowly
    0:35:50 in a difficult business facing a lot of headwinds
    0:35:53 with a ton of assets that are hard to reposition?
    0:35:56 The giant that once owned 60% of Canadian retail
    0:35:59 had shriveled to less than 10%.
    0:36:01 The company nobody wanted to compete with
    0:36:03 was now the butt end of jokes.
    0:36:05 The company that once made so much money
    0:36:08 the government told them to stop making money
    0:36:10 was now losing money hand over fist.
    0:36:14 In the mid 1990s, Eaton’s entered retail’s deadliest spiral,
    0:36:17 following sales forced inventory cuts,
    0:36:19 driving away customers who expected selection,
    0:36:21 causing more and more sales drop.
    0:36:25 Getting out of this death spiral is like running in quicksand.
    0:36:28 February 1997 brought the final humiliation.
    0:36:30 The company that had revolutionized retail
    0:36:33 by making cash only a virtue now had to beg courts
    0:36:35 for protection from creditors.
    0:36:39 The empire built on paying on cash couldn’t pay its bill.
    0:36:41 The numbers tell the story better than words.
    0:36:46 By 1999 sales had collapsed to 1.6 billion, 1970s levels.
    0:36:48 The years lost 72 million.
    0:36:50 Meanwhile, their old rival Sears Canada
    0:36:52 had soared to five billion.
    0:36:53 Same market, same challenges,
    0:36:55 same opportunities, same customers.
    0:36:57 The difference was simple but profound.
    0:37:00 One company understood that success had to be re-earned daily
    0:37:03 while the other thought it could live off inherited momentum.
    0:37:04 It wouldn’t be long after this,
    0:37:07 however, that Sears would suffer the same fate.
    0:37:08 As Buffett commented,
    0:37:12 you have to be smart every single day in retail.
    0:37:15 Retail is incredibly difficult business.
    0:37:17 Eaton’s didn’t just die.
    0:37:19 It left us a timeless lesson of its success.
    0:37:22 The price must be paid daily.
    0:37:23 It can’t be inherited.
    0:37:27 It can only be earned, re-earned and reinvented.
    0:37:29 Risk and hard work might get you to the top
    0:37:31 but only hard work and constant vigilance
    0:37:33 will keep you at the top.
    0:37:36 The company that had defined Canadian retail
    0:37:37 for generations collapsed
    0:37:41 because it worshiped its past instead of building its future.
    0:37:44 It’s not just a business failure, it’s a warning.
    0:37:47 Even giants fall when they forget yesterday’s success
    0:37:49 doesn’t guarantee tomorrow’s survival.
    0:37:56 If you want to take your learning to the next level,
    0:37:58 consider joining our membership program
    0:38:00 at fs.blog/membership.
    0:38:03 As a member, you’ll get my personal reflections
    0:38:05 at the end of every episode,
    0:38:09 early access to episodes, no ads including this,
    0:38:12 exclusive content, hand edited transcripts and so much more.
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    So far with The Knowledge Project Podcast, we’ve focused on interviews. But I’ve learned as much from reading biographies as from interviewing amazing people. That’s why we’re starting ‘Lessons from Outliers.’ Every other week, we’ll study an outlier who did remarkable work. From industrialists who reimagined commerce to the irreverent personalities who challenged the foundations of their fields, we’ll explore what they did and how they did it. We can learn something from everyone.  

     

    We’re starting Outliers with Timothy Eaton, a Canadian name that might not be familiar to many listeners today, but his innovations fundamentally changed retail and how we shop. This episode is about how he built that empire, the principles that drove its success, and the forces that eventually brought it all crashing down. Whether you’re building a business, leading a team, or trying to understand how great companies rise and fall, Timothy Eaton’s story offers timeless lessons about innovation, trust, and the true price of success. You’ll learn why even the mightiest empires can crumble when they forget the principles that built them and why success—no matter how massive—must be earned and re-earned daily. 

    01:55 – Introduction

    05:04 – The Vision

    06:16 – Timothy’s Early Years

    09:28 – The System

    12:17 – The Innovation Engine

    14:18 – The Scale Game

    18:08 – The Platform Play

    19:32 – The Leadership Philosophy

    20:48 – The Succession

    22:21 – Retail as Entertainment

    23:14 – The Western Expansion

    25:12 – Building the National Network

    26:05 – Creating the Corporate Family

    26:43 – The Pinnacle of Power

    27:43 – THe Inherited Crown

    28:33 – The Comfortable Plateau

    31:33 – The Weight of Tradition

    33:12 – The Profit Paradox

    34:02 – The Identity Crisis

    34:51 – The Final Chapter

    This podcast is for information purposes only and draws primarily from two excellent books: ‘The Eatons: The Rise and Fall of Canada’s Royal Family’ by Rod McQueen which chronicles the Eaton family history and the company’s journey from beginning to end, and ‘Timothy Eaton and the Rise of His Department Store’ by Joy L. Santiuk, which focuses on the founder’s life. If this story captured your interest, we highly recommend both books for their thorough documentation of what became a Canadian institution for over a century. 

    Newsletter – The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at fs.blog/newsletter

    Upgrade — If you want to hear my thoughts and reflections at the end of the episode, join our membership: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠ and get your own private feed.

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  • #213 Mickey Drexler: The Art of Selling with Retail’s Merchant Prince

    AI transcript
    0:00:03 What I do, I have a photograph in my mind.
    0:00:08 I go into a shop, it paints a picture or it doesn’t.
    0:00:11 One bad color in a great painting.
    0:00:15 That changes, throws off the whole painting.
    0:00:19 It’s like the wheels, the ugly wheels on a Mustang.
    0:00:21 And I mean that every car now has ugly wheels,
    0:00:22 I can’t get over it.
    0:00:24 You know, you see the wheels,
    0:00:28 it’s like having a bad button on a sweater like this.
    0:00:30 This is one of the best sellers.
    0:00:33 And if you put an ugly button on this,
    0:00:35 that’s what you notice.
    0:00:41 And I say never give a customer a reason not to buy something.
    0:00:59 Welcome to The Knowledge Project.
    0:01:01 I’m your host, Shane Parrish.
    0:01:03 In a world where knowledge is power,
    0:01:06 this podcast is your toolkit for mastering the best
    0:01:08 what other people have already figured out.
    0:01:12 Most people think retail is about selling things.
    0:01:17 Mickey Drexler proved it’s about selling dreams.
    0:01:20 As the CEO of Gap and J Crew,
    0:01:24 he understood something profound about the American aspiration.
    0:01:26 People don’t just want clothes.
    0:01:30 They want to become someone through what they wear.
    0:01:34 A boy from the Bronx who transformed into retail’s merchant prince,
    0:01:38 Drexler could walk into a room with a hundred samples
    0:01:41 and instantly spot the three winners
    0:01:43 because he saw what Americans wanted to become
    0:01:45 before they knew it themselves.
    0:01:49 From advising Steve Jobs on Apple’s retail strategy
    0:01:51 to building Old Navy from scratch,
    0:01:54 Drexler’s career traces a remarkable journey
    0:01:57 of seeing opportunities that others missed.
    0:02:00 In this conversation, he shares the insights and instincts
    0:02:04 that let him repeatedly predict and shape American taste.
    0:02:06 Whether you’re building a brand,
    0:02:07 leading a team,
    0:02:10 or trying to see around corners in your own industry,
    0:02:13 you’ll learn how one of the retail’s greatest minds
    0:02:16 thinks about the psychology of consumer desire,
    0:02:18 the principles of brand building,
    0:02:23 and the art of knowing what people want often before they do.
    0:02:27 It’s time to listen and learn.
    0:02:29 Let’s start at the beginning.
    0:02:33 You said your father was a model of what you didn’t want.
    0:02:37 He didn’t fit up my job description
    0:02:41 of what I thought a good father should be.
    0:02:44 Yeah, I didn’t know what I wanted then.
    0:02:47 I didn’t know, you know, when you’re a kid,
    0:02:49 like you moving all over the place,
    0:02:52 you don’t know what’s right and what’s not right.
    0:02:54 You learn over time.
    0:02:56 What was that relationship like?
    0:02:59 He was, it wasn’t good.
    0:03:01 He wasn’t a sensitive guy.
    0:03:03 He had no emotion.
    0:03:05 He didn’t treat my mom well who died.
    0:03:09 You know, she had cancer the year I was born.
    0:03:11 And what was it like?
    0:03:15 I didn’t know any better at all.
    0:03:18 And I thought this is what a father is like.
    0:03:22 And over the years, I learned that this is not
    0:03:25 what a good father is like.
    0:03:28 And he never, he was an angry, bitter guy.
    0:03:30 He was not successful.
    0:03:35 And, you know, he always talked, he wanted to be a big shot.
    0:03:39 So in my family, he acted like a big shot
    0:03:43 with my mom’s three sisters and my seven cousins.
    0:03:46 And by the way, the irony is none of them liked him
    0:03:49 because he wasn’t a warm, fuzzy, nice person.
    0:03:52 But I didn’t know that when I was growing up.
    0:03:54 How did that affect you?
    0:04:00 I think my ambition comes from being the opposite of him, I think.
    0:04:06 I always lived in my fantasies escaping where I am.
    0:04:09 And Peggy, my wife said, you know,
    0:04:12 maybe that’s where your creativity comes from.
    0:04:16 I don’t believe it came from that because I think creativity
    0:04:21 is part of your DNA and I don’t think it can be taught.
    0:04:24 So, but, you know, it affected me.
    0:04:29 He never took any pleasure in my success.
    0:04:32 And I, he just never did.
    0:04:35 Was there a moment when you realized he wasn’t a big shot?
    0:04:38 Well, I’ll tell you, it’s an interesting story.
    0:04:43 I used to work, he worked in the garment code company.
    0:04:45 He worked buttons.
    0:04:47 He had kind of a low level-ish job.
    0:04:49 Well, I didn’t want to face that.
    0:04:55 And he, they asked me to take the payroll.
    0:04:56 I was 16.
    0:04:59 He said, take the payroll to the bank.
    0:05:01 What do I do?
    0:05:05 I duck out the freight entrance on West 37th Street
    0:05:08 Avenue, go into the neighboring freight entrance.
    0:05:12 I looked through all the pay stubs or whatever it is.
    0:05:18 He was one of the lowest paid people there relative to his peer group,
    0:05:21 who he would always put down and whatever.
    0:05:23 That was a reality for me.
    0:05:26 So that was a cold reality.
    0:05:31 So my thoughts of him being whatever disappeared then.
    0:05:37 And as I grew, he, he wasn’t a good dad.
    0:05:40 So when I lived there, I was going to City College.
    0:05:41 I was miserable.
    0:05:45 And I was, you know, I just got subways, Long Island Railroad.
    0:05:47 And I had to escape from the house.
    0:05:51 So I luckily got into, I didn’t know where to apply,
    0:05:54 State University of Buffalo.
    0:05:57 Some guy I knew went, he wasn’t even a close friend.
    0:05:58 I got in.
    0:06:00 So I escaped to Buffalo.
    0:06:02 And for two years.
    0:06:07 And, but it was, you know, never took any.
    0:06:12 He was competitive with me in an ironic way.
    0:06:15 And, you know, I was getting a lot of press when I,
    0:06:18 you know, I worked 12 years in the department stores.
    0:06:21 And then I was very lucky, fortunate.
    0:06:26 I was called to run Ann Taylor then in 1980.
    0:06:27 I was a young guy.
    0:06:30 I, you know, I don’t know.
    0:06:33 I said, okay, I didn’t know what I would do next.
    0:06:35 After 12 years in the department stores,
    0:06:42 I couldn’t find the stimulation and the excitement
    0:06:45 or whatever you call it, of the organizations.
    0:06:47 And I don’t think they’re much different.
    0:06:50 Political suck up.
    0:06:53 I didn’t know how to articulate this.
    0:06:55 But I think in most big companies,
    0:06:59 people are always sucking up to their bosses.
    0:07:02 That’s my own experience.
    0:07:05 And these develop over time, you know,
    0:07:08 because the boss reviews you, the boss promotes you.
    0:07:11 I’ve learned over the last number of years,
    0:07:18 the best judge of a boss is the person who works for the boss.
    0:07:20 Tell me more about that.
    0:07:24 Well, it’s my own thing, I think, in corporations.
    0:07:27 And, well, look at all the CEOs out there.
    0:07:31 I don’t know all of them, but I think safe.
    0:07:34 They went to the right schools.
    0:07:37 I couldn’t care less where anyone goes to school.
    0:07:39 I like to see a college degree,
    0:07:42 but I also like to see a work history.
    0:07:46 But if you’re a safe choice and, you know, it’s, again,
    0:07:50 it’s an editorial in what I think people would argue
    0:07:54 if they went to a fancy school here and a fancy school there.
    0:07:57 And now it starts, and I was guilty when my son
    0:08:01 was five years old going to a nursery school.
    0:08:03 I didn’t have any connections.
    0:08:05 I thought it was a fancy one.
    0:08:07 It wasn’t a good choice.
    0:08:10 But I think if you look at people, you know,
    0:08:13 like everyone, all these earnings reports,
    0:08:16 I know the public relations people write that.
    0:08:18 They script them.
    0:08:20 And safe.
    0:08:22 You have a good education.
    0:08:26 You don’t want to take a risk on picking the wrong boss
    0:08:29 or senior executives.
    0:08:32 And I think there’s a lot of self-interested people
    0:08:34 in this world, plenty of them.
    0:08:36 Why do you think we’re so risk averse?
    0:08:39 Well, I can’t answer for others.
    0:08:43 I think, you know, why?
    0:08:47 I think you have to be creative to move any business forward,
    0:08:49 any institution.
    0:08:51 And that’s what I think.
    0:08:55 And it’s really based on my own personal experience.
    0:09:01 And also in the sector I’m in, fashion and all that,
    0:09:04 creative drives the engines.
    0:09:09 And so why are they risk– it’s a good question.
    0:09:13 Well, salary, they don’t want to risk that.
    0:09:15 They don’t want to risk that.
    0:09:20 I mean, they get very wealthy these days becoming a CEO.
    0:09:22 When you transformed the gap,
    0:09:26 you renovated all 430 stores at the same time
    0:09:29 with no focus group, nothing.
    0:09:30 Oh, my God.
    0:09:33 If you take over something,
    0:09:36 you’ve got to get rid of the old merchandise
    0:09:39 because it ties up a lot of cash.
    0:09:43 And Don Bless’s heart was nervous about the earnings.
    0:09:45 I get emotional.
    0:09:48 You know, my stomach speaks for me a lot.
    0:09:51 But, you know, business got tough for the first year.
    0:09:55 The stock dropped probably 50%.
    0:09:59 And, you know, I never– I worked hard
    0:10:02 and I was scared after a year.
    0:10:03 I’ll never forget.
    0:10:06 We were talking about– it was a year and a half
    0:10:08 we were in Carmel and we’re sitting there.
    0:10:11 We come up with kind of a bankruptcy plan.
    0:10:14 That’s when I started to get nervous.
    0:10:17 And I’ve been there a year and a half.
    0:10:21 Don redid the 400 plus stores.
    0:10:23 I redid all the merchandise.
    0:10:26 I threw it all out and that’s where he was concerned.
    0:10:28 But you got to take–
    0:10:30 and you got to get the cash out of bad goods.
    0:10:33 It’s like rotten fish or whatever.
    0:10:38 So we redid the stores.
    0:10:40 Hey, what you doing?
    0:10:42 Programming our thermostat to 17 degrees
    0:10:44 when we’re out at work or asleep.
    0:10:46 We’re taking control of our energy use this winter
    0:10:49 with some easy energy saving tips I got from Fortis, B.C.
    0:10:52 Ooh, conserve energy and save money?
    0:10:54 Maybe to buy those matching winter jackets?
    0:10:56 Uh, no.
    0:10:59 We’re also getting that whole matching outfit thing under control.
    0:11:02 Discover low and no cost energy saving tips
    0:11:05 at fortisbc.com/energysavingtips.
    0:11:06 Matching tracksuits?
    0:11:07 Please no.
    0:11:11 What gave you the confidence to do that?
    0:11:13 I mean, this was like a–
    0:11:15 we’re basically going to go extinct.
    0:11:17 So that’s the base case.
    0:11:20 Those two or three years.
    0:11:25 Even when it turned around, it was like, uh-oh.
    0:11:28 But I worked my ass off.
    0:11:32 I kept– no one taught me how to run Ant Taylor.
    0:11:35 I just did it without any supervision
    0:11:38 because the headquarters– it was $25 million business.
    0:11:41 But I just went in there day one.
    0:11:44 And, you know, corporate– a lot of people,
    0:11:46 they leave you alone.
    0:11:48 Or they don’t leave you alone.
    0:11:49 That’s what I was.
    0:11:52 And the threat was if I don’t turn this–
    0:11:53 I was under pressure.
    0:11:54 I didn’t make money there.
    0:11:55 They didn’t pay me.
    0:11:56 I didn’t negotiate, whatever.
    0:11:58 But it is what it is.
    0:12:06 So I always depended upon my gut, my instinct.
    0:12:09 And in hindsight, I did.
    0:12:14 I knew who was a good person, not a good person.
    0:12:18 I knew who was full of it and down to earth.
    0:12:22 And in the department store, it was 12 years.
    0:12:26 I kept looking for the right place to go.
    0:12:29 You mentioned– you could tell the difference
    0:12:32 between who was a good person and who was a bad person.
    0:12:34 Who knew what they were talking about and who didn’t.
    0:12:35 What are the tells?
    0:12:36 How would you teach somebody to do that?
    0:12:38 You can’t teach anyone.
    0:12:42 I am a huge proponent.
    0:12:46 And I never could say, like, Jesus, they’re the president.
    0:12:47 They’re the CEO.
    0:12:49 They’re the this.
    0:12:55 And I’m thinking, I’m not impressed privately.
    0:13:00 And I can name drop some of the big shots of the time
    0:13:02 in the retail business.
    0:13:08 And I would say something like not a merchant.
    0:13:11 They look at me that I could tell.
    0:13:14 And because I was a merchant, I guess,
    0:13:18 my first, second day at Bloomingdale’s,
    0:13:21 they put me in charge of a department
    0:13:25 because the buyer, Barbara, was on maternity leave.
    0:13:27 Stan Stern, who I love dearly.
    0:13:29 He was a great boss.
    0:13:31 I was on my own.
    0:13:32 And I just did it.
    0:13:34 What does it mean to be a merchant?
    0:13:40 What it means to me is– and it’s not a lot, I think.
    0:13:47 It means to know from what’s going to sell well,
    0:13:51 from what’s not going to maybe sell well.
    0:13:53 Focus, make sure it’s on brand.
    0:13:55 Now, this is what I do.
    0:13:57 No rear view mirror.
    0:13:59 Most people do rear view mirror.
    0:14:02 And they say, well, we sold last year this.
    0:14:05 Sometimes it’s going to go this way a lot.
    0:14:09 So you chase what’s over in post peak.
    0:14:14 It means to me to be a merchant is having a sense
    0:14:17 of what’s going to sell knowing that–
    0:14:24 like I always had an instinct, I guess, on what I loved.
    0:14:30 And I learned later on if I think it is non-negotiable.
    0:14:33 The word that comes to mind, though, is like taste.
    0:14:35 Well, that’s a good question.
    0:14:36 What’s the difference between?
    0:14:40 Well, you know, for me, I use that word a lot.
    0:14:43 But it’s in the eyes of the beholder.
    0:14:45 I have a friend who’s very successful.
    0:14:47 I was talking about the ugly merchandise
    0:14:49 in one of the companies he’s involved with.
    0:14:53 He said, well, to the customer, it’s not ugly.
    0:14:55 To me, it’s ugly.
    0:14:57 Now, I know what I know.
    0:15:01 And I don’t know where my eye came from.
    0:15:06 But it came from somewhere, but taste and style
    0:15:11 and fair value and moving forward and having a vision,
    0:15:14 those are the key ingredients that I think.
    0:15:17 Now, when people say, well, look how good that company is doing,
    0:15:20 I said that’s not what I like to do.
    0:15:24 I like to be proud of the merchandise.
    0:15:29 I like it to be fit my standards.
    0:15:33 I don’t say it that way of what it is vision.
    0:15:39 And I like, I can always tell when something’s not on brand.
    0:15:43 I remember in some of my jobs, I remember looking at something.
    0:15:45 It was a big tell.
    0:15:49 And I said, oh, and I didn’t follow my instinct
    0:15:51 and really hurt one of the companies.
    0:15:53 You know, there’s people involved.
    0:15:59 But it means to be a good merchant is you can’t define it,
    0:16:01 but you know when you know.
    0:16:02 You know it when you see it.
    0:16:05 So if we were to walk outside and walk in a store
    0:16:08 and you had five minutes to walk me through
    0:16:10 how you evaluate the merchandising.
    0:16:12 So it takes five minutes, three minutes.
    0:16:14 What would you look at?
    0:16:16 The picture painted.
    0:16:23 Because when I, I just always, it’s a really interesting question
    0:16:27 because I don’t know how to explain what I look at.
    0:16:30 But I look at colors very important.
    0:16:33 When I did gap, I had a list of styles.
    0:16:35 I was trying to start something.
    0:16:38 I was looking for my vision.
    0:16:40 I always admired Ralph Lauren,
    0:16:42 but I couldn’t afford his clothes.
    0:16:44 He was a Bronx guy ahead of me.
    0:16:48 And, you know, I always, he was always had a point of view.
    0:16:52 And I admired him.
    0:16:54 I used to buy his clothes wholesale.
    0:16:55 Why?
    0:17:00 Because a friend of mine’s cousin was his secretary.
    0:17:02 So I got it half off, whatever.
    0:17:04 But I always liked his taste.
    0:17:06 And it’s still the same today.
    0:17:09 And there’s not a lot of people who do that.
    0:17:11 So it’s interesting coming back to your friend’s comment
    0:17:14 about, well, the customer is deciding what we sell.
    0:17:20 If you’re selling, if your game, I guess, is to sell the most product
    0:17:22 at the lowest prices, you’re going to be selling the same thing
    0:17:24 that everybody else was selling.
    0:17:26 But you’re telling me you wanted to create a different vision,
    0:17:29 one that’s like escaped the competition in a way.
    0:17:33 Well, what I do, I say this is my plan.
    0:17:35 I look for white space.
    0:17:37 This is in hindsight.
    0:17:41 So Ann Taylor was usually successful.
    0:17:46 I left after four years because my bosses were bureaucrats.
    0:17:48 And I didn’t like it there.
    0:17:52 And I also was at the stage in my life where I had to have something
    0:17:56 I wanted to do where I could feel not compensated the right.
    0:17:58 I was very happy with what I earned.
    0:18:01 But I faced the realities of living in Manhattan.
    0:18:07 Anyway, I always had, Ann Taylor was purely instinctive,
    0:18:16 but I did learn there that I didn’t want to sell brand ABCD.
    0:18:21 And today you can get every brand at a discount.
    0:18:24 And TJ Max, my friend there, she’s the best.
    0:18:28 You can go to TJ Max and trust.
    0:18:31 But they’re the biggest customers of most brands.
    0:18:36 So I didn’t want to carry, because Alexander’s taught me the lesson.
    0:18:39 I was maybe 25 years old.
    0:18:43 And I said, Jesus, something’s wrong here.
    0:18:46 And I’m self-taught.
    0:18:48 And then I’m also very curious.
    0:18:51 When I joined Ann Taylor, Brooks Brothers,
    0:18:54 and I saw it decline dramatically then,
    0:18:59 because no merchants running at the quality.
    0:19:02 They would take quality out to maintain price.
    0:19:08 But they had a protective device about competitors.
    0:19:10 They owned their name.
    0:19:12 They didn’t sell wholesale.
    0:19:14 No one could take a mark down.
    0:19:19 So what I did at Ann Taylor is we did–
    0:19:24 I found some manufacturers today you get your own,
    0:19:28 but who can make goods, we designed them with them.
    0:19:32 And we had Ann Taylor’s studio label.
    0:19:34 Now, no one told me to do that.
    0:19:37 But you know, it’s the white space.
    0:19:38 Well, yeah.
    0:19:42 And then I don’t have to worry about meeting the competition.
    0:19:45 What’s going on in the business today, by the way,
    0:19:48 is if you look at pricing.
    0:19:50 First of all, everything’s on sale.
    0:19:53 I always give advice when I’m on a whatever.
    0:19:56 I say, before you give them the credit card,
    0:19:59 Google the item you want to buy.
    0:20:02 You’ll find it somewhere most of the time.
    0:20:06 Let’s go back to the gap before we get to the end of the gap.
    0:20:08 So you were the CEO from ’95 to 2002.
    0:20:12 How did you prevent the bureaucracy from building up
    0:20:14 over those seven years?
    0:20:19 You know, well, the bureaucracy is I’m all over everything.
    0:20:23 I took every call from a customer.
    0:20:27 And they’d be surprised about–
    0:20:33 and I say, if I can do it, you have to do it.
    0:20:36 But today, it doesn’t always work.
    0:20:39 I tell every story, customer stories,
    0:20:43 I would call customers.
    0:20:47 Anyone who called me, I got back to them.
    0:20:49 And now I do that.
    0:20:52 It’s a little bit of a payback because I never had anyone like that.
    0:20:55 What were the key learnings from the gap?
    0:20:58 Oh, every day, the key learnings.
    0:21:00 You must have a vision.
    0:21:03 You must be whatever’s defined as a good merchant.
    0:21:08 You must be spot on and be a pain in the ass
    0:21:11 because the best bosses.
    0:21:16 And I always say, hire your boss because that’s the one.
    0:21:20 And I never had bosses who I thought were the best,
    0:21:23 especially in– yeah, but I became the boss
    0:21:25 other than Don was my boss there.
    0:21:28 And I had to, you know, play that game with him
    0:21:33 because if you do what I do, and I wish you Steve does
    0:21:36 and you do what maybe all these other people do,
    0:21:39 you are always competing.
    0:21:41 You have to be competing.
    0:21:42 It’s relentless.
    0:21:44 And it goes with it.
    0:21:47 And if you’re not, a lot of people don’t compete.
    0:21:50 I know friends who run companies.
    0:21:52 They’re bureaucrats.
    0:21:55 I know because I know them.
    0:22:00 So Old Navy, you know how I started that?
    0:22:04 It’s my favorite, one of my favorite stories.
    0:22:06 So in the New York Times, I used to read it
    0:22:08 when it was a decent paper.
    0:22:12 Business section, I always like to read about business
    0:22:15 because I wanted to be who they all were.
    0:22:17 And then I realized, well, I didn’t realize
    0:22:21 for a long time who they were, but not what I wanted to be.
    0:22:27 So there was a little article buried on page four or five
    0:22:31 about Target, and that was then called Dayton Hudson.
    0:22:34 It was a very bureaucratic company
    0:22:37 that I knew that they did a lot of research
    0:22:40 and a lot of this and a lot of that.
    0:22:43 So, and then someone was quoted as saying
    0:22:48 it’s pretty much going to be a cheaper version of GAP.
    0:22:52 Weak the store opened, I flew out to Mall of America that week.
    0:22:54 I didn’t even tell anyone.
    0:22:57 But I said, well, fuck them.
    0:23:02 And I went out, Mall of America, I walked in the store.
    0:23:06 I was there no more than five minutes,
    0:23:12 and I said to myself, you know, you gotta, you know,
    0:23:14 only the paranoid survive.
    0:23:15 Well, that’s interesting, right?
    0:23:18 Because it’s a story of only the paranoid survive.
    0:23:21 And Andy Grove is the one who wrote that book.
    0:23:23 But it’s also a story of making sure
    0:23:24 that you’re touching the medium.
    0:23:26 So when you’re talking to customers,
    0:23:28 there’s no filter between you and the fee.
    0:23:30 When you’re flying to the store, there’s no filter.
    0:23:32 But you’re looking at the train.
    0:23:34 Somebody’s not telling you what it is.
    0:23:38 In corporations, most of the brass,
    0:23:40 they’re in their ivory tout.
    0:23:42 I remember in the department stores.
    0:23:44 They’re so far disconnected.
    0:23:48 Go on the selling floor, speak to someone.
    0:23:50 Plus, it’s decent.
    0:23:55 You know, people, for me, I identify with those people
    0:23:57 who aren’t the fancy people.
    0:24:01 You know, a funny story about this modern Xbox for my kids.
    0:24:06 It must have been, I don’t know, seven years ago for Christmas.
    0:24:09 And we’re opening it and we’re setting it up on Christmas.
    0:24:13 And I was like, the person who designed this Xbox experience
    0:24:15 doesn’t have kids.
    0:24:19 It took an hour and a half to play a game.
    0:24:21 From the time we plugged it in and turned it,
    0:24:23 it’s like, first, you got to do updates.
    0:24:25 Second, you got to sign up for all these accounts.
    0:24:26 Keep it simple.
    0:24:28 Stupid is the greatest lesson.
    0:24:33 My first week at the Gap, I put up signs.
    0:24:34 Keep it simple.
    0:24:35 I took out the stupid.
    0:24:40 Every desk in the corporation, people would talk a language to me.
    0:24:42 I didn’t know the language.
    0:24:44 I’ll never forget this.
    0:24:45 She was one woman.
    0:24:49 She’s in charge of whatever, planning and something.
    0:24:52 I didn’t know what she was talking about.
    0:24:56 And I just said, keep it simple to the point.
    0:25:02 You have to bring everything to its simplest common denominator.
    0:25:05 The best way to do that is to actually use your own product.
    0:25:06 Yeah.
    0:25:10 We did the P Jimmy’s pajama thing, which is a really fun thing.
    0:25:14 It’s going to be very good for him and us long term.
    0:25:20 And they call a boxer short.
    0:25:26 Well, their name for it was a short pajama pan.
    0:25:29 And they show me their new version.
    0:25:42 Now, it’s the third after the pant and the pajama set, they’re calling it the short pajama pan.
    0:25:43 Number three seller.
    0:25:47 And they show me this thing that they’re changing it.
    0:25:50 Now this is typical of what goes on.
    0:25:53 And I said, it’s the third best seller.
    0:25:55 You want to change it?
    0:25:58 I said, and it’s called a boxer short.
    0:26:00 It’s not called.
    0:26:04 I get a little impatient a lot.
    0:26:06 And then I do a little survey.
    0:26:09 I go around just to, I say, what do you call this?
    0:26:10 It’s a boxer short.
    0:26:11 Yeah.
    0:26:15 When you say the word boxer short, you don’t have to describe it.
    0:26:17 It is what everybody has an idea of what it is.
    0:26:20 Of course, everyone knows the elastic waist.
    0:26:26 And I said, continue that and you’re not doing this, whatever it was.
    0:26:30 And that’s what I do.
    0:26:32 And it’s funny.
    0:26:37 And they call things, I like to name things that say what it is.
    0:26:39 And I go through this all the time.
    0:26:41 They confuse people.
    0:26:46 I said, there’s certain names that you know what it is.
    0:26:48 Everybody wants to come up with something new.
    0:26:51 They don’t know, but they’re not logical.
    0:26:55 So what happened at the end of the gap in your tenure there?
    0:26:59 Oh, well, Steve Jobs, just to frame the conversation here.
    0:27:01 So Steve Jobs is on the board.
    0:27:02 He calls you.
    0:27:03 Yeah.
    0:27:04 Take me through this.
    0:27:07 Well, Steve Jobs joined the board.
    0:27:11 He was recruiting me to join his board about a year.
    0:27:12 Steve is very seductive.
    0:27:16 He doesn’t give up like a lot of people do what he does.
    0:27:26 And he called me one day and he said, I’ll join the gap board if you join my board deal.
    0:27:32 Because I knew Steve, you know, there’s no such thing as an independent director.
    0:27:36 You know, there’s a litmus test, not a relative.
    0:27:38 They don’t do business with you.
    0:27:47 But they ought to have on the test, not a close friend, not a college roommate, not a cousin, not whatever.
    0:27:52 Unless it’s, you know, if it’s a controlled company, you can do what you want.
    0:27:54 But independent directors.
    0:27:57 So I said, didn’t even think deal.
    0:28:01 I knew he would be Steve Jobs.
    0:28:03 He’s irreverent.
    0:28:05 He challenges things.
    0:28:08 He might be late, but I love the guy.
    0:28:10 What was he like as a board member?
    0:28:13 He was a troublemaker because he brought up things.
    0:28:15 I’d sit there, thank God.
    0:28:21 But he alienated people because, you know, it’s okay to alienate people.
    0:28:28 He had, but he didn’t, he really wasn’t a very paid attention board member.
    0:28:30 But I didn’t care.
    0:28:34 So he was on the board only about a year in the Yale.
    0:28:39 He wasn’t very popular, but I just, you know, guy was ill.
    0:28:40 He was dying.
    0:28:42 I just so admired him.
    0:28:45 And I really admired him a lot.
    0:28:52 Johnny Ive was his lunchmate, and I had, you know, Johnny and I became good friends.
    0:28:54 And Steve was whatever.
    0:28:57 So there’s a board meeting.
    0:29:00 I knew there was something going on.
    0:29:05 People, all of a sudden, you know, and you have a corporate.
    0:29:12 And they don’t, first of all, I never had a director who really understood the goods.
    0:29:17 You know, and, you know, if they came in, they didn’t like the name Old Navy.
    0:29:19 I got it off a bar in Paris.
    0:29:21 I was driving to the airport.
    0:29:24 I was fortunately in the back seat on the left.
    0:29:28 And looking out, I said to Maggie, she was in marketing.
    0:29:32 I go to Paris, you know, you go to shop, you get ideas creative.
    0:29:39 So I see Marquis with a lot of neon lights, and it says Old Navy.
    0:29:42 I said, Maggie, that’s the name.
    0:29:47 We needed a name for Old Navy, which, by the way, is about $11 billion business today.
    0:29:49 That’s the name.
    0:29:51 They didn’t like the name.
    0:29:53 Long story short.
    0:29:54 Two naming.
    0:29:59 I don’t like agencies, and I don’t like consultants.
    0:30:04 And Old Navy, by the way, that was started the whole other story.
    0:30:05 So let’s go back to the firing.
    0:30:07 So Jobs is calling you.
    0:30:08 Okay.
    0:30:11 So this is, we had a bad year.
    0:30:14 So Jobs was not at that board meeting.
    0:30:19 I presented at that board meeting the turnaround assortment.
    0:30:24 I looked at Banana Republic, Gap, and Old Navy.
    0:30:27 It was a tough year, I think, in the marketplace.
    0:30:30 They weren’t looking at me.
    0:30:32 I get home about nine.
    0:30:35 He says, Don just told me you’re getting fired.
    0:30:37 They had to tell him.
    0:30:42 He said, they didn’t tell me until now because they were worried I would tell you.
    0:30:45 And of course I would tell you.
    0:30:50 But nine was the deadline they had for whatever.
    0:30:52 And I called Don.
    0:30:54 He brushed me off very quickly.
    0:30:57 Come in at eight o’clock, dot, dot, dot.
    0:30:59 So board meeting the next day.
    0:31:03 He hands me a one note, whatever.
    0:31:05 That was my last day.
    0:31:07 So you end up going on the Apple board.
    0:31:09 Steve recruited you.
    0:31:12 He seduced you for over a year to join the Apple board.
    0:31:13 Yeah.
    0:31:16 And I say that would all fund this for him.
    0:31:19 What was the Apple board meetings like?
    0:31:22 And what contributions did you make to retail there?
    0:31:29 Well, you know, I designed the first store with him because he designed an ugly store.
    0:31:33 And we went in and I told him, get a warehouse.
    0:31:37 Build a store so we can design it together.
    0:31:38 We did a gap.
    0:31:41 You have a store before you open it up.
    0:31:43 So I went in.
    0:31:45 It’s very simple.
    0:31:48 I said it was too charge key.
    0:31:54 He said simple, a screen to show the movie or whatever it is.
    0:31:58 So we designed the store and that’s the store.
    0:32:00 It’s still the same store.
    0:32:01 And the stores became iconic.
    0:32:04 What’s the difference between the first version and the one that we sort of…
    0:32:06 Oh, no, the first version never opened up.
    0:32:09 No, but I mean the first version you saw, like what…
    0:32:12 It’s like comparing apples and oranges.
    0:32:16 But I always like to talk about this because we always see sort of the end product.
    0:32:19 You know, we never see the messiness of the…
    0:32:22 What I do, I try to explain this.
    0:32:25 I have a photograph in my mind.
    0:32:29 It’s, I go into a shop.
    0:32:32 It paints a picture or it doesn’t.
    0:32:34 One bad color in a great painting.
    0:32:36 I’m not a big art collector.
    0:32:42 I love nice pictures, but that changes, throws off the whole painting.
    0:32:47 It’s like the wheels, the ugly wheels on a Mustang.
    0:32:50 And I mean that every car now has ugly wheels.
    0:32:52 I can’t get over it.
    0:32:57 You know, you see the wheels, it’s like having a bad button on a sweater like this.
    0:32:59 This is one of the best sellers.
    0:33:04 And if you put an ugly button on this, that’s what you notice.
    0:33:11 And I say never give a customer a reason not to buy something.
    0:33:13 It’s one of my rules, you know.
    0:33:17 So why do people buy, or is it they just don’t have a reason not to buy?
    0:33:21 Most people, they don’t get it.
    0:33:23 You know, the logo business.
    0:33:27 And by the way, I learned this last week, they call it dupes.
    0:33:28 You know that?
    0:33:33 All the designer copies are called dupes like in duplicates.
    0:33:35 Hot business today.
    0:33:41 Because people say, well, they don’t, you know, the LVs, who the hell knows if it’s real or fake.
    0:33:43 You look at all, you know.
    0:33:49 Well, it’s interesting because you sort of had, I don’t want to say envied because that’s the wrong word.
    0:33:53 But you liked Ralph Lauren, who had logos.
    0:33:56 And at J Crew, you did away with logo.
    0:33:58 Yeah, well, Ralph had the horse.
    0:34:01 And that was, I remember, I was a buyer at Bloomingdale’s.
    0:34:05 Ralph had the horse when he was just started.
    0:34:07 And it was prestigious.
    0:34:09 The horse was prestigious.
    0:34:16 With J Crew, one of the most fascinating things to me is you took, you did something that’s incredibly rare in retail,
    0:34:19 which was you took a brand that was known for discounting.
    0:34:20 Same with Gap.
    0:34:23 And you made it high end.
    0:34:25 Well, Gap was, Gap was.
    0:34:26 Was it?
    0:34:27 I don’t know the early part of the gap.
    0:34:28 Gap.
    0:34:29 Well, you probably.
    0:34:32 I started there in 1984.
    0:34:33 Yeah, yeah.
    0:34:34 I don’t know that.
    0:34:36 It was a shithole with the flesh.
    0:34:39 A disaster, culturally in every other way.
    0:34:41 It was all on sale.
    0:34:46 What’s the playbook then to take, I mean, they did it with Restoration Hardware too.
    0:34:47 There’s a couple of other brands.
    0:34:48 Gary, I know Gary.
    0:34:52 But the base rate of success is pretty close to zero in doing this.
    0:34:56 Well, it’s vision, imagination.
    0:34:59 I don’t have any doctor nose.
    0:35:02 I call them doctor nose telling you it’s not going to work.
    0:35:07 If I look old Navy, I went out and I did it.
    0:35:08 It’s interesting.
    0:35:11 You make decisions mostly on your gut.
    0:35:14 And research backing it up.
    0:35:17 Well, I was just going to say it, but you’re always gathering information.
    0:35:20 Are you pattern matching when you make decisions?
    0:35:22 Well, it’s funny you use that word.
    0:35:26 The whole business is recognizing patterns.
    0:35:30 It’s, you know, there’s patterns that go on.
    0:35:34 And for me, I have to preempt the pattern.
    0:35:36 And then I push the team.
    0:35:39 Like right now, personalization.
    0:35:46 Two years ago, we had painted dogs on a tote bag.
    0:35:51 18 of them that day, gone.
    0:35:56 Two years ago, I have still in the last two years.
    0:36:04 I want to be, I want personalization to be who, what we do with personalizes the goods.
    0:36:11 You know, so we have, I don’t have my bag here, but painted initials, cool.
    0:36:18 The dogs, painted dogs, but I’m trying to get people to move.
    0:36:21 And it’s hard.
    0:36:26 Is the reason that focus groups are so difficult in retail?
    0:36:31 Because people are telling you what they want, but they actually have to be led.
    0:36:33 They’re difficult for me.
    0:36:35 Everyone else does them.
    0:36:37 But they don’t seem to work.
    0:36:38 I don’t.
    0:36:39 Or do they?
    0:36:40 I don’t know.
    0:36:41 Look, I don’t know.
    0:36:43 It’s not what I do for a living.
    0:36:47 I do, I say to see around corners, you have to have a vision.
    0:36:54 It’s interesting because the outliers on both ends, positive and negative, don’t use focus groups.
    0:36:56 But everybody’s sort of in them.
    0:36:59 So it’s almost like a guaranteed average in a way.
    0:37:06 The world, this is funny, a friend sends me 20 plus page article two weeks ago.
    0:37:10 Talking about how average the world is today.
    0:37:12 I totally, I called him.
    0:37:14 I said, wow, you are on.
    0:37:16 He talked about cars.
    0:37:18 He talked about designs.
    0:37:19 He talked this article.
    0:37:23 He didn’t write it, but the world’s average.
    0:37:30 And you have to be not average if you want to do what you do.
    0:37:33 For me, you break the rules.
    0:37:40 But the rules are, common knowledge isn’t that common as it is.
    0:37:43 And I’m an anti-Athari guy.
    0:37:44 I don’t like that.
    0:37:49 I don’t like to, I’ll never forget when I used to work in the shipping room.
    0:37:51 I had an idea.
    0:37:56 You know, I used to ticket, you know how you see those hang tags on buttons.
    0:38:03 So I used to walk around bending down with the racks of coats like this.
    0:38:05 I took a rolling chair.
    0:38:07 I’m going down the aisle.
    0:38:11 It was like, my father got so angry at me.
    0:38:14 He wasn’t my, who knows who my boss was.
    0:38:17 But that’s what happens in corporations.
    0:38:20 I, no one wants to change the rules in a way.
    0:38:22 Not that he was a corporate guy.
    0:38:23 Well, this is interesting.
    0:38:26 This is a fascinating sort of like nuance here because in a corporation,
    0:38:28 you can’t get fired for following the rules.
    0:38:31 You know, I just follow what you told me to do.
    0:38:34 So I’m absolved of all responsibility or judgment, right?
    0:38:37 Like nobody’s going to get fired for following the rules.
    0:38:40 I mean, you do at the CEO level, but aside from that, you’re basically…
    0:38:44 Well, you have to, you can follow the rules.
    0:38:49 On the other hand, you have to have a drive in you that’s creative and can make changes.
    0:38:53 When I worked at the department stores, you know, I’ll never forget,
    0:38:57 I had some simple ideas for the financial person.
    0:39:01 You know, none of them, they didn’t ask people.
    0:39:06 I asked people, you know, they know young people don’t have any baggage.
    0:39:09 Well, this is fascinating because you say you’re anti-authority,
    0:39:12 but when you say that, what I hear is you’re not anti-authority.
    0:39:15 You’re really a rule breaker who’s constantly questioning things,
    0:39:17 which comes across as anti-authority.
    0:39:18 A hundred percent.
    0:39:21 But you’re vacuuming up information from every available source.
    0:39:27 And I, when I hear something two or three times, I bring it to work immediately.
    0:39:30 Every weekend, I have a Monday morning weekend update.
    0:39:31 What is it?
    0:39:37 It’s a combination of me seeing things that are an idea.
    0:39:41 I look through, not that I like the fashion magazines,
    0:39:46 but I look through every picture on monthly.
    0:39:50 And if there’s a picture I like, I cut it out.
    0:39:53 Last weekend, it was a great picture.
    0:39:58 It was a designer, I think it was Fendi.
    0:40:01 And they just showed the woman’s heads.
    0:40:10 And they had a sweatshirt on, each of them, in four in bright colors.
    0:40:12 So I cut that out.
    0:40:21 And I said, this is something we will do while we are doing hooded sweatshirts in bright colors.
    0:40:24 And then I always do detective work.
    0:40:26 I’m addicted to detective shows.
    0:40:31 Great, great detectives solve cold cases.
    0:40:32 There’s such a difference.
    0:40:37 Anyway, I then, I asked someone who I know, I said,
    0:40:40 are there any companies we can do a collaboration with?
    0:40:43 We do collaborations, we get together.
    0:40:46 And we did it at Jake, we kind of invented it.
    0:40:51 Now everyone’s, they’re all collaborating with all the famous brands.
    0:40:53 So it doesn’t make it unique.
    0:40:58 But anyway, so she mentioned this company in England.
    0:41:06 I went online, looked at it, and they had a hoodie hat, a bakalava, whatever it’s called.
    0:41:08 So I said, we’re going to do that hat.
    0:41:13 We sell a million cash, we are hats, we’re famous for that.
    0:41:19 And by the way, being famous for something drives businesses because you’re dominant.
    0:41:22 Hermes uses this with the Birkin bag.
    0:41:24 I mean, that drives almost all their other business.
    0:41:27 Well, it’s funny with Hermes.
    0:41:32 I used to get Peggy when I could afford it.
    0:41:41 And I was a young guy who had money and I may start to afford things in my 40s, which is young now to me.
    0:41:53 But I collected for Peggy twice a year, anniversary, and birthday I got Birkin bags, or the Kelly bag, or whatever.
    0:42:01 But people, you know, I think designers, so anyway, she has a beautiful collection now.
    0:42:05 She doesn’t wear them because she thinks they’re old ladies, although she’s an old lady.
    0:42:08 And she doesn’t want to wear them on the streets today.
    0:42:13 You know, like watches, they see your watch and they come up to you.
    0:42:19 But anyway, Birkin bags now, they’re dupes of that.
    0:42:30 And I said, now growing up in the Bronx, I didn’t know from fancy, but growing up in the Bronx, I liked things.
    0:42:36 When I bought my first pair of Gucci buckle loafers, I was probably early 30s.
    0:42:38 I used to go to the factories.
    0:42:41 So I went to the Gucci store in Florence.
    0:42:44 I got those shoes, boom, Bada Bing.
    0:42:51 Now, you don’t know the difference between the dupe and the real, and you get ripped off.
    0:42:52 Who cares?
    0:42:54 You know, Hermes bags.
    0:42:56 I mean, Peggy’s tired of them.
    0:42:58 I mean, don’t leave that on.
    0:42:59 No, no, I get that.
    0:43:01 How much of retail do you think is theater?
    0:43:05 Theater.
    0:43:12 Well, you know, Stanley Marcus at Neiman Marcus was known for that.
    0:43:17 I don’t think it’s, you know, the hottest supermarket in America now.
    0:43:19 You had an year one.
    0:43:20 Yeah.
    0:43:24 I was in one in LA about three or four weeks ago.
    0:43:26 I don’t call anything theater.
    0:43:33 Theater is great product, looking like a painting and going in for me.
    0:43:36 I never had Old Navy, by the way.
    0:43:40 It was an amazing business in its day.
    0:43:45 I had Schwinn bikes around the escalator.
    0:43:48 We sold out of them very quickly.
    0:43:53 And then the guy I knew who owned, you know, he’s an investor, not a close friend,
    0:44:01 but Schwinn decided not to sell us because we weren’t buying them from dealer.
    0:44:08 But the business first apparel business to hit a, what’s the number?
    0:44:10 I think they hit a billion dollars.
    0:44:11 That’s it.
    0:44:13 The first one in apparel.
    0:44:15 But now I’m sure there’s many others.
    0:44:25 But I just follow the guidance of, but I also absorb detectives.
    0:44:26 I always come in every day.
    0:44:28 I see these fends.
    0:44:30 I’m addicted to true crimes.
    0:44:31 You’re always gathering information.
    0:44:32 You’re always looking.
    0:44:36 You’re always questioning and probing, which helps you develop the patterns.
    0:44:37 Yeah.
    0:44:39 And I see a picture.
    0:44:40 Yeah.
    0:44:43 Who do you think are the great retailers today?
    0:44:47 I don’t like to name competitors, but I’ll tell you something.
    0:44:48 Well, TJ Maxx.
    0:44:49 Okay.
    0:44:56 I always named Carol because Carol Myrowitz, TJ Maxx is the honest discount.
    0:44:59 And she’s a great merchant.
    0:45:08 The only thing is you have to keep changing acts the wrong word, but you got to keep changing
    0:45:11 and seeing down the road.
    0:45:13 And I have these ideas.
    0:45:16 But you can only do that if you touch the territory.
    0:45:20 Like when you hopped on the plane and you went to the store, when you’re constantly talking
    0:45:24 to everybody, when you’re getting all the information sources, that’s how you rapidly
    0:45:26 adjust because you’re not looking at a…
    0:45:37 You are not curious in any field, whether it’s nonprofit, profit, selling cars and all
    0:45:38 that.
    0:45:45 Any field, product is always driving and product is about emotion, in my opinion.
    0:45:50 Someone said this the other day and I kind of took it on myself to say it.
    0:45:58 I have a love affair with the companies that I’ve been involved with, made well.
    0:46:01 You know what happened, how I got that name.
    0:46:07 So David Mullen, who’s a great wash guy, unfortunately, he’s an old friend.
    0:46:15 10 or 15 years ago when I was a J crew, well, you know how old Navy and the whole concept
    0:46:16 I told you.
    0:46:26 So David has a logo, made well since 1937, he shows it to me, it was actually the logo.
    0:46:27 He said, “What do you think?”
    0:46:29 I said, “It’s fantastic.”
    0:46:32 He said, “Well, do you want to buy it?”
    0:46:34 I said, “Yeah, but what about you?”
    0:46:36 We can’t afford it, whatever.
    0:46:37 I bought the name.
    0:46:46 I owned the name and when we went public at J crew, then we did made well.
    0:46:52 And I had a vision, I loved work clothes then, like Carhartt and all that.
    0:46:59 But I had a vision for it, but you can’t do anything well unless you have the right team.
    0:47:04 So we struggled for the first three or four years, we were going to do men’s and women’s
    0:47:07 and I decided let’s get rid of men’s.
    0:47:12 Now I didn’t have anyone to talk to about this other than myself, but I never thought
    0:47:14 about it that way.
    0:47:23 So we got rid of men’s and then some sack who works with me and us, creative guy, was
    0:47:30 at a J crew for 15 years and he left for a year, hired him back and became the creative
    0:47:35 director of made well, boom, boom, boom.
    0:47:41 And made well was a great company until it wasn’t, you know, when we had a two billion
    0:47:47 dollar, well, don’t even get me started with selling companies because the mercenaries.
    0:47:51 And by the way, gap, you know, when I left there, I didn’t say that no one called me
    0:47:58 on the board 18 years, hello, can you believe that except for Steve who didn’t think you
    0:48:00 should be fired in the first place.
    0:48:01 Exactly.
    0:48:02 Exactly.
    0:48:03 Yeah.
    0:48:07 What makes something a classic look, you know, it’s a good question.
    0:48:15 We say, if you know, you know, I wear clothes that have no expiration date.
    0:48:19 This shoe, I found it in Paris.
    0:48:22 It’s all in an American company.
    0:48:32 And I must have been 40, probably 40 years ago, it was my favorite store, Fastenab, until
    0:48:38 they were bought out by a big American department store, then it’s over.
    0:48:40 So this shoe is from Alden.
    0:48:46 I’ve been wearing not this one shoe, we used to buy from Alden at J Crew and my good friend
    0:48:51 Todd Snyder, who’s a men’s designer, he buys from Alden.
    0:48:56 And I asked him that a year ago, I said, can you ask them to do a special this shoe again
    0:48:57 for me?
    0:48:59 I ordered 10 of them.
    0:49:00 That’s awesome.
    0:49:03 And this, and I wear another one.
    0:49:06 This jeans never go out of style.
    0:49:11 But as long as you don’t wear the big ones, the skinny ones, these are cashmere socks
    0:49:16 that we started doing at J Crew, they, whatever.
    0:49:18 And now we do them.
    0:49:26 This is clothes, this scarf, it’s 40 years old, Michael Drake was a good friend, nice
    0:49:29 to buy from him in London.
    0:49:30 His collection.
    0:49:33 There’s a Michael Drake now, but it’s not the same.
    0:49:38 I have about 20 versions of this, I bought them wholesale because, you know, and this
    0:49:48 sweater, this is our third year at Alex Mill, but forever.
    0:49:55 And it’s cashmere and our price is on cashmere, a good, oh, I only do vintage watches because
    0:50:00 I like vintage and old is new today.
    0:50:03 The vintage business is this way, and it’s unique.
    0:50:09 You’re not like buying, you’re not going to see, well, a hooded sweatshirt never goes
    0:50:10 out of style now.
    0:50:11 That’s a novelty.
    0:50:13 So you know.
    0:50:16 I love this idea clothes that have no expiration date.
    0:50:17 No expiration date.
    0:50:18 Right.
    0:50:19 No expiration date.
    0:50:23 Farnham Street, the website that I run is about knowledge that has no expiration date.
    0:50:24 Really?
    0:50:26 The timeless wisdom.
    0:50:36 Timeless, and it’s whatever I wear, and it’s things, and I didn’t warn this.
    0:50:41 Everything I buy, and it’s internal to me.
    0:50:48 You know, it’s like if someone wears something, oh, that’s the guy with the purple shirt or
    0:50:52 that’s the car with the ugly hubcaps.
    0:50:58 I like the screed, I like style, and I like a uniform.
    0:51:04 That’s what I do, and I wear the same Alex Mill, this, you know, slub t-shirt, blue every
    0:51:05 day.
    0:51:06 Perfect.
    0:51:09 You know, I’ve always had a uniform.
    0:51:13 We always end the interview with the same question, which is, what does success look
    0:51:14 like to you?
    0:51:18 I think what it looks like is a couple of things.
    0:51:32 If you can impact people’s lives in a positive way, that to me is the best sign of success.
    0:51:40 Of course, and if I could also be very pleased with myself, that’s another sign.
    0:51:48 But I think the biggest compliments I get are from people—you know, we had that, I think
    0:51:52 you knew about the Gap reunion, did you mention that to me?
    0:51:53 No.
    0:52:05 150 or 60 people were there, Ken Pilot, who used to work with me, and I don’t—success,
    0:52:09 it’s not being rich only.
    0:52:16 It’s not even being rich, because I know successful scientists or successful whatever.
    0:52:18 But I think it’s impacting people’s lives.
    0:52:27 My biggest compliment, I say this, I’ve said it on CMBC, is when I’m called a mensch, you
    0:52:28 know what that word is.
    0:52:31 Why don’t you explain it for everybody so everybody knows it?
    0:52:35 Manch is in Yiddish.
    0:52:47 Manch is like a nice person, normal, hamisher, down to earth, and I like talking to people
    0:52:55 in a parallel way, and I don’t talk down to people because I appreciate who I am and
    0:52:56 what I do.
    0:53:02 Now, no one escapes, you know, I go through certain mood issues, of course, I’m always
    0:53:10 trying to better myself, but I think success is—it’s just not about money, most people
    0:53:16 might say that, but you have to be—I’m very pleased with what I’ve done, more so
    0:53:22 over the last few years, because I have changed people’s lives, because I had a reunion two
    0:53:34 weeks ago last week with the field team at Gap, 15 to 20 of us, and they all thanked me
    0:53:42 and they said they made their lives much better, and that’s success.
    0:53:48 Thanks for listening and learning with us.
    0:53:56 For a complete list of episodes, show notes, transcripts, and more, go to fs.blog/podcast
    0:53:59 or just Google “The Knowledge Project”.
    0:54:03 Recently I’ve started to record my reflections and thoughts about the interview after the
    0:54:04 interview.
    0:54:09 I sit down, highlight the key moments that stood out for me, and I also talk about other
    0:54:14 connections to episodes and sort of what’s got me pondering that I maybe haven’t quite
    0:54:15 figured out.
    0:54:18 This is available to supporting members of the Knowledge Project.
    0:54:24 You can go to fs.blog/membership, check out the show notes for a link, and you can sign
    0:54:28 up today, and my reflections will just be available in your private podcast feed.
    0:54:32 You’ll also skip all the ads at the front of the episode.
    0:54:36 The Furnham Street blog is also where you can learn more about my new book, Clear Thinking,
    0:54:40 turning ordinary moments into extraordinary results.
    0:54:44 It’s a transformative guide that hands you the tools to master your fate, sharpen your
    0:54:49 decision making, and set yourself up for unparalleled success.
    0:54:52 Learn more at fs.blog/clear.
    0:54:53 Until next time.
    0:54:57 [Music]
    0:54:59 you
    0:55:08 [BLANK_AUDIO]

    This episode will transform how you think about style, aspiration, and the art of knowing what people want before they know it themselves. From working in department stores to advising Steve Jobs on Apple’s retail strategy when it didn’t have retail at all, Drexler’s career traces the evolution of American retail itself: from local shops to mall dominance, from catalog to digital, from mass market to personalization. Whether you’re an aspiring entrepreneur, a retail enthusiast, or someone looking to build a brand that stands the test of time, Mickey shares invaluable insights on what separates truly successful brands from the rest.

    Mickey Drexler is the chairman of Alex Mill. Before that, he was the CEO of J. Crew and sat on the Board of Directors of Apple. He founded Old Navy and Madewell, and served as the CEO of Gap from 1983–2002.

    Learn why gaining real-world insights—and not just reports or data—is crucial to staying ahead of the competition.

    Newsletter – The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at fs.blog/newsletter

    Upgrade — If you want to hear my thoughts and reflections at the end of the episode, join our membership: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠ and get your own private feed.

    Watch on YouTube: @tkppodcast

    (02:16) How Mickey Drexler became Mickey Drexler

    (07:04) Lessons from redefining Gap

    (12:47) Merchant, defined

    (15:17) How Drexler evaluates stores

    (19:20) Lessons from running Gap

    (21:19) On Old Navy

    (27:26) On Steve Jobs and Working with Apple

    (33:00) Re-making J. Crew

    (37:00) Drexler’s superpower

    (43:40) Current-day retailers who are great

    (45:10) How Drexler got “Madewell”

    (47:15) What makes something a classic look?

    (50:20) On success

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