Author: The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway

  • No Mercy / No Malice: Marrying Up and Marrying Down

    AI transcript
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    0:01:06 I’m Scott Galloway, and this is No Mercy, No Malice.
    0:01:08 What’s the new luxury item?
    0:01:10 Marriage.
    0:01:13 Marrying up and marrying down, as read by George Hahn.
    0:01:30 This post was written by Richard Reeves.
    0:01:35 A dramatic reversal has taken place on college campuses.
    0:01:39 Once male dominated, they are now populated largely by women.
    0:01:44 In the early 1970s, about three in five students were men.
    0:01:47 Now it is the other way around.
    0:01:52 There are 2.5 million fewer male than female undergraduates.
    0:01:55 There’s an even bigger gender gap in master’s degrees.
    0:01:57 Does this matter?
    0:02:01 After all, the massive educational advance of women and girls
    0:02:06 is rightly seen as a cause for celebration rather than lamentation.
    0:02:09 Given that men still out-earn women,
    0:02:13 there’s an argument to be made that women need to out-learn men,
    0:02:16 just to keep up in the labor market.
    0:02:18 I think it does matter.
    0:02:24 For one thing, it highlights how the K-12 educational system fails boys.
    0:02:27 Kudos to those governors like Wes Moore in Maryland
    0:02:30 and Spencer Cox in Utah, who have noticed.
    0:02:32 Even when men do enroll in college,
    0:02:36 they’re much less likely to get a degree.
    0:02:39 Too much male talent is being left on the table.
    0:02:42 This is why 30 or so institutions
    0:02:46 have already joined a new initiative I’m helping lead,
    0:02:50 the Higher Education Male Achievement Collaborative.
    0:02:53 But there is one thing we can stop worrying about,
    0:02:58 that the college gender gap is reducing marriage rates.
    0:03:02 This is a common concern and for good reason.
    0:03:04 There is pretty strong evidence
    0:03:08 for what anthropologists call female hypergamy,
    0:03:12 which is a fancy way of saying that women typically want to marry men
    0:03:15 of at least equal or preferably higher status.
    0:03:20 The fear is that with so many more college-educated women than men,
    0:03:23 marriage rates will plummet.
    0:03:25 I’ve always been skeptical of this argument.
    0:03:30 For one thing, women overtook men in higher education back in the 1980s.
    0:03:34 So if marriage rates among women with a college degree were going to fall,
    0:03:37 they’d have done so by now and they haven’t.
    0:03:39 There is also some evidence from European countries
    0:03:45 that hypergamy declines as gender equality increases.
    0:03:47 Because this is an empirical question,
    0:03:50 I commissioned an empirical study.
    0:03:55 The resulting paper by Clara Chambers, Benjamin Goldman, and Joseph Winkelman
    0:03:59 uses data from Opportunity Insights,
    0:04:02 a team of researchers and policy analysts at Harvard,
    0:04:06 led by economist Raj Chetty.
    0:04:10 Marriage rates among college-educated women have been rock-steady
    0:04:16 at around 70% for decades, at least since World War II.
    0:04:21 The decline in marriage rates has been among women without a BA.
    0:04:26 As a result, a huge class gap in marriage has opened up.
    0:04:30 As the authors of the study write for AIBM,
    0:04:34 “The stable marriage outcomes for college-educated women
    0:04:38 sharply contrast with the significant decline in marriage rates
    0:04:43 among women without a BA over the past half century.
    0:04:48 Among women born in 1930, there was no education gap in marriage rates.
    0:04:52 Since then, a nearly 20 percentage point gap has emerged
    0:04:59 with college-educated women now significantly more likely to marry.”
    0:05:03 The simple math here means that some women with college degrees
    0:05:07 must be marrying men without college degrees.
    0:05:11 That is exactly what the paper finds.
    0:05:17 One in five college-educated women marry a man without a four-year degree.
    0:05:21 What’s more surprising is that this was always the case,
    0:05:24 long before the great educational overtaking.
    0:05:31 College-educated women born in 1950 were as likely as those born in 1980
    0:05:35 to marry a man without a degree.
    0:05:39 Women with college degrees continue to marry at high rates,
    0:05:43 in part because of the continued willingness among one-fifth of them
    0:05:47 to marry down in terms of education.
    0:05:50 This suggests that a combination of female hypergamy
    0:05:53 and a growing gender gap in education
    0:05:57 is not having a negative impact on marriage rates.
    0:06:00 Of course, there are still many unanswered questions.
    0:06:04 Maybe some of the 30 percent of those women with a BA
    0:06:07 but no wedding ring would be more inclined to marry
    0:06:10 if there were more college-educated men around.
    0:06:14 The stability of the marriage trend suggests not, however.
    0:06:17 It looks like they just don’t want to marry, period.
    0:06:20 In the most interesting couples from a cultural perspective,
    0:06:24 the wife has more education than the husband.
    0:06:28 At first glance, that bucks the whole idea of hypergamy.
    0:06:34 But, of course, education is only one marker of marriageability and status.
    0:06:37 It turns out that money matters a lot, too.
    0:06:40 Men who have a college-educated wife,
    0:06:42 even though they don’t have a BA themselves,
    0:06:45 in other words, men who’ve married up in educational terms,
    0:06:50 make a lot more money than other guys with similar levels of education.
    0:06:58 Among those born in 1980, guys who married up make $68,000 a year
    0:07:01 compared to the $46,000 a year earned by men
    0:07:06 who either married a woman without a degree or didn’t marry at all.
    0:07:10 The earnings premium among men who marry up educationally
    0:07:13 has gotten bigger over time.
    0:07:17 This shows that women with a degree are willing to marry men without one
    0:07:21 so long as they’re making decent money.
    0:07:25 Women might marry down in terms of education,
    0:07:28 but not in terms of earnings.
    0:07:34 The good news here is that economically viable men have decent marriage prospects
    0:07:38 and that women with degrees can find a good man.
    0:07:42 The bad news is that men doing badly in the labor market
    0:07:46 are likely to struggle in the marriage market, too.
    0:07:50 The paper finds that in areas where working-class men are doing better,
    0:07:55 marriage rates go up, cutting the marital class gap in half,
    0:08:00 making men more economically viable to use one of Scott’s favorite terms,
    0:08:05 turns out to be the key to improving marital prospects.
    0:08:10 There’s a corrosive downward spiral at work right now.
    0:08:15 As the economic prospects of men without a college degree decline,
    0:08:17 marriage rates fall.
    0:08:21 That leaves millions more men and women without a partner to share the
    0:08:25 responsibilities and benefits of family life.
    0:08:31 In other work by AIBM, we show that half of men without a college degree,
    0:08:37 aged 30 to 50, now live in a household without children.
    0:08:41 Without the positive pressures that come from being a father and husband,
    0:08:46 men are even less likely to really go for it on the work front.
    0:08:50 They are more likely to be unemployed. They become more vulnerable to addiction,
    0:08:55 more socially isolated, all of which makes them less attractive as potential
    0:08:59 spouses. Boys raised in single-mother households
    0:09:04 then struggle in school and in life, and they have difficulty finding a mate
    0:09:09 and forming a family, too. And so the cycle turns.
    0:09:12 The economic struggles of boys and men become entrenched
    0:09:15 across generations.
    0:09:20 It’s not often enough stressed that the class gap in marriage
    0:09:23 is not only a consequence of economic inequality,
    0:09:29 but also a cause of it. Pooling incomes into a single household is
    0:09:32 obviously optimal, but from an economic perspective,
    0:09:37 especially for those with the lowest incomes, who are now the least likely to
    0:09:41 marry. Some scholars suggest that the class
    0:09:46 gap in marriage can explain much of the decline in social mobility in recent
    0:09:50 decades. Concerns about marriage should then be
    0:09:55 focused on men and women with less educational attainment and/or
    0:10:00 worsening economic outcomes. The problem is not that your daughter
    0:10:05 graduating from Amherst or Berkeley won’t find a man good enough for her.
    0:10:08 The problem is that a woman in Appalachia or the Bronx
    0:10:13 won’t find a man she sees as worth marrying.
    0:10:17 The best pro-marriage anti-poverty strategy
    0:10:23 is simple. Improve the economic prospects of working class and lower
    0:10:29 income men. Simple does not mean easy, of course.
    0:10:32 Massive investments in education and training are required,
    0:10:36 as well as more spending on infrastructure, place-based policies to
    0:10:40 help the poorest counties, and much more besides.
    0:10:45 But it’s clear where to start with the boys
    0:10:48 and men.
    0:10:58 Life is so rich.
    0:11:07 All right, Sean, you can do this promo talking about all the great
    0:11:12 box media podcasts that are going to be on stage live at South by Southwest this
    0:11:17 March. You just need a big idea to get people’s attention, to help them,
    0:11:20 you know, keep them from hitting the skip button.
    0:11:24 I don’t know. I’m going to throw it out to the group chat. Kara, do you have any
    0:11:26 ideas? In these challenging times, we’re a group of
    0:11:30 mighty hosts who have banded together to fight disinformation by speaking
    0:11:35 truth to power, like the Avengers, but with more spandex. What do you think, Scott?
    0:11:39 I’m more of an X-man fan myself. I call me professor.
    0:11:43 Can I read minds? I can’t really read minds, but I can empathize
    0:11:47 with anyone having a mid-life crisis, which is essentially any tech leader so.
    0:11:51 Mines are important, Scott, but we’re more than that.
    0:11:56 I think that you can’t really separate minds from feelings,
    0:12:00 and we need to talk about our emotions and explore the layers of our
    0:12:04 relationships with our partners, co-workers, our families,
    0:12:08 neighbors, and our adjacent communities. I just want to add a touch more.
    0:12:12 From sports and culture to tech and politics, Vox Media has an All-Star lineup
    0:12:16 of podcasts that’s great in your feeds, but even better live.
    0:12:23 That’s it! All-Stars! Get your game on, go, play, come see a bunch of Vox Media
    0:12:27 All-Stars, and also me at South by Southwest on the Vox Media
    0:12:31 podcast stage presented by Smartsheet and Intuit.
    0:12:38 March 8th through 10th in Austin, Texas. Go to voxmedia.com/sxsw.
    0:12:45 You’ll never know if you don’t go. You’ll never shine if you don’t glow.

    Written by Richard Reeves. As read by George Hahn.

    Marrying Up and Marrying Down

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  • The Making of The White Lotus, Scott’s Surprise Cameo, and Hollywood’s Shifting Landscape — with David Bernad

    AI transcript
    0:00:02 >> Support for this show comes from Indeed.
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    0:00:42 >> If you know this sound, I have some good news for you.
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    0:00:49 it’s all right, you have a good day.
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    0:01:28 >> Episode 338, the 338 caliber is used for hunting larger
    0:01:30 deer species, including elk and moose.
    0:01:34 In 1938, Superman first appeared in comic books.
    0:01:37 I’ve often wondered what it would be like to have sex with Superman.
    0:01:41 Well, it hurt a lot, said the invisible man.
    0:01:47 I made that up myself, no joke.
    0:01:51 Go, go, go.
    0:01:59 [MUSIC]
    0:02:02 >> Welcome to the 338th episode of the Prop G Pod.
    0:02:03 What’s happening?
    0:02:06 The dog is back in London, he’s howling.
    0:02:08 He’s howling, he’s fed up with the weather.
    0:02:12 But he’s got a big fur coat so he can handle 55 and rainy.
    0:02:13 You know, the weather’s not that bad here.
    0:02:18 It’s actually, it’s spectacular in London, a good 11 to 13 days a year.
    0:02:21 I mean, those days are just fantastic.
    0:02:24 The other 352, not so much.
    0:02:25 Not so much.
    0:02:27 Anyways, Instrinsland went to Zermatt.
    0:02:30 One of the things I love about it is it doesn’t have cars.
    0:02:34 It has these electric cars, and we stayed at this place called the Hotel Chervil.
    0:02:39 And we had a ski instructor that is a lingerie model and
    0:02:42 runs surf schools in the summer in Bali.
    0:02:46 And then at night in Zermatt runs her family’s Creperie, and
    0:02:52 we would stroll by and see this lyrically beautiful woman making crepes after she
    0:02:54 taught my kids how to snowboard for eight hours.
    0:02:56 And I’m like, Jesus Christ, this is like a fucking Cinemax film.
    0:02:57 Is this for real?
    0:02:59 Seriously?
    0:03:00 Anyways, how did we get here?
    0:03:01 Instrinsland, back to London.
    0:03:03 Yeah, that’s where we were.
    0:03:07 Back in London, had a wonderful time, tried to ignore the news.
    0:03:12 So, America, what the fuck is going on?
    0:03:13 Is this a simulation?
    0:03:14 We’re not gonna talk about that.
    0:03:16 I’m done talking about it.
    0:03:19 Anyways, in today’s episode, we speak with David Bernad,
    0:03:23 the Emmy-winning executive producer of HBO’s Hit the White Lotus.
    0:03:27 My God, little bit of surprise coming your way on the White Lotus.
    0:03:30 Little bit of a Easter egg coming right at you.
    0:03:33 I’m not gonna spoil it, but tune in.
    0:03:37 It is my favorite show since Game of Thrones, which I’m watching with my
    0:03:39 14-year-old, it’s a ride of passage for us.
    0:03:44 It has politics, sex, geography, magic, sibling rival.
    0:03:48 It has, literally, literally Game of Thrones has everything.
    0:03:52 I took my son to the beach in Nantucket because his mother said it was time for
    0:03:55 us to have the sex talk, so I took him down and said, it’s time for the sex talk.
    0:04:01 He let out a scream like I have never heard before of, no!
    0:04:03 And just begged me not to have the talk and I said, fine,
    0:04:06 then we have to watch Game of Thrones because I’ll give you 80 or 90% of
    0:04:08 everything you need to know.
    0:04:11 But anyways, I have been watching Game of Thrones with my 14-year-old, but
    0:04:15 I’m really excited about season three of The White Lotus.
    0:04:18 They bring together something fairly simple, but it always has themes around.
    0:04:20 I think it’s The Seven Deadly Sins.
    0:04:24 They just do such a fantastic job, and this season is no different.
    0:04:25 Tune in now.
    0:04:27 Okay, let’s move on to some news.
    0:04:29 For the first time, the top 10% of earners,
    0:04:32 those making roughly a quarter of a million dollars or more a year,
    0:04:35 account for 50% of US consumer spending.
    0:04:38 30 years ago, that number was just 36%.
    0:04:39 So what does that mean?
    0:04:43 More money, more spending across the top quintile.
    0:04:46 Now the economy is more dependent than ever on the ultra-wealthy.
    0:04:50 When I first saw this, though, it actually struck me that they’re not spending
    0:04:53 more because I believe the top 10% control about 90% of the assets,
    0:04:57 meaning they have more assets, relatively speaking than their spend,
    0:05:01 which means that they will save and invest more, which takes interest rates
    0:05:04 down asset prices up, but isn’t good for the economy.
    0:05:08 And one of the things I’ve talked about in terms of stimulus is that if you were
    0:05:11 to put more money in the hands of lower middle-income people,
    0:05:13 the wonderful thing about lower middle-income households,
    0:05:16 if you give them 100 bucks, they spend it, which results in a multiplier effect
    0:05:18 that’s greater than if you give rich people money.
    0:05:23 By the way, the fact that the 10% are now responsible for half the consumer
    0:05:26 economy versus a third just speaks to a couple of things.
    0:05:33 One, how much money they have, but also a prioritization of experiences over things.
    0:05:36 The luxury market has actually kind of gone flat,
    0:05:40 but people are spending a ton of money on things like safaris and travel
    0:05:43 and private travel and experiences.
    0:05:45 I think a lot of this is sort of the yellow coming out of COVID,
    0:05:48 and that is people are getting smarter and read a lot of the research.
    0:05:51 It says people overestimate the happiness they’ll get from things,
    0:05:55 and they underestimate the happiness they’ll get from experiences.
    0:05:58 In sum, drive a Hyundai and take your husband to Africa.
    0:06:03 I have found that I’m spending all my money or most of my money on really two things.
    0:06:07 Real estate in beautiful places, one, because it’s a 0.1% strategy,
    0:06:10 and I’ll come back to that, and I want my kids not to be able to avoid me
    0:06:13 when they’re adults and think, “Well, it’d be more fun to go to Tijuana.”
    0:06:14 But yeah, my dad has a place in Aspen.
    0:06:15 We just have to have lunch with them every day.
    0:06:18 Boom, hopefully they’re in Aspen.
    0:06:20 And two, I buy into this 0.1% strategy.
    0:06:21 What do I mean by that?
    0:06:23 I think income inequality is only going to get worse.
    0:06:26 I’m going to fight it, but I think it’s only going to get worse.
    0:06:30 I think essentially the Republican Party and the ruling party is the far right.
    0:06:37 They distract everybody with their kind of angry course, anti-immigrant bullshit or whatever you want to call it.
    0:06:41 But what they’re really trying to do is create controversy such that it’s a misdirectory.
    0:06:45 You look over here and avoid the compact they have with rich people.
    0:06:50 And that is a lot of rich people give some lip service to how upset they are about what’s going on.
    0:06:54 But this is kind of the bargain that Trump and other right-wing governments have with rich people.
    0:07:01 I’m going to cut your taxes. So you’ll offer some sort of “liberal bullshit” foe concern.
    0:07:03 But you’re really not going to get in the way of this.
    0:07:08 Are you? Why? Because poor you, poor fucking you, your taxes are going to go down.
    0:07:10 And here’s the thing, I’m not that worried about me.
    0:07:14 Anyone I know in my life that needs access to a mess of a restaurant is going to get it.
    0:07:21 Anyone I know that needs legal protection from anyone abusing them because of employee or violation of the rights,
    0:07:24 they’re going to be fine because I have a shit ton of money to buy lawyers, right?
    0:07:28 If for some reason they started rounding up, name your favorite special interest group,
    0:07:31 which could happen with an economic shock here in the United States.
    0:07:34 I don’t think it happened in Britain. I do think it could happen in the United States now,
    0:07:37 which is feeling a lot like early 30s Germany.
    0:07:40 I have the money for a go back to get the fuck out of here.
    0:07:43 Here’s the bottom line. Money equals rights.
    0:07:46 And the violation of rights that takes place is from the far right.
    0:07:49 If you do believe it involves violation of rights,
    0:07:53 you’re protected from it if you’re a rich person as long as you’re getting richer.
    0:07:57 We are so focused on left versus right, we don’t think about the real problem.
    0:07:59 The real problem or the real battle is up versus down.
    0:08:02 And that is the bottom 99 versus the top one.
    0:08:06 And what we do is we divide and distract and anger the bottom 99.
    0:08:08 So they’re not focused on the real battle here.
    0:08:10 And that is the Republican Party in my view,
    0:08:15 taking money from the bottom 99 and putting it in the pockets of the top one.
    0:08:17 And this is another example of that.
    0:08:21 But we have income inequality that is absolutely out of control.
    0:08:25 And what you see across the wealthiest people is in fact,
    0:08:27 they’re exceptionally boring. What do I mean by that?
    0:08:28 They all party in St. Parts.
    0:08:33 They all send their kids to one of maybe 50 schools globally.
    0:08:35 And they all want to live in one of the handful of places,
    0:08:40 Dubai, London, New York, Palm Beach, Aspen,
    0:08:44 maybe a little bit of LA, maybe Singapore, not even so much.
    0:08:47 Maybe maybe a little bit of Hong Kong, but they’re losing people.
    0:08:49 It used to be London. London is lost.
    0:08:52 And it’s still going to be a place where rich people keep a home.
    0:08:54 But a lot of people are no longer living here full-time
    0:08:57 because they pass this non-dom tax act,
    0:09:00 which essentially people who are very wealthy people,
    0:09:04 who are citizens elsewhere, could come here and pay essentially no tax.
    0:09:06 And then when the UK, understandably,
    0:09:08 and theoretically and philosophically correctly said,
    0:09:10 “All right, you got to start paying some tax.”
    0:09:12 As they said, “Fuck you, we’re rich, we’re mobile, we can move anywhere.”
    0:09:18 And that’s the problem with a “common sense tax policy that’s progressive”
    0:09:20 is people forget that they’re very wealthy
    0:09:21 and the most mobile people in the world.
    0:09:24 And I personally have two friends who are very wealthy,
    0:09:26 who have pieced out, who have left.
    0:09:29 Who have said, “Yeah, I get that it makes sense for me to pay some taxes here,
    0:09:30 but I’d rather pay zero.”
    0:09:33 So unless there’s some sort of multilateral tax agreement
    0:09:36 and alternative minimum tax across multiple nations,
    0:09:38 you’re always going to have a race to the bottom.
    0:09:41 And it was back to rich people.
    0:09:45 There’s too much prosperity being crammed into too few hands.
    0:09:49 The bottom 99 are reminded 210 times a day on their phone
    0:09:50 that they’re not doing well.
    0:09:54 And then the echo effect, the epicenter of people not doing well as young people,
    0:09:57 because when a 50-year-old is not doing well, it’s bad.
    0:09:59 But when a 25-year-old isn’t doing well,
    0:10:01 it affects everybody in the household,
    0:10:04 because everyone is used to their kids doing better than them.
    0:10:05 That’s the bad news.
    0:10:07 And common equality is going to get worse.
    0:10:09 The good news is it always self-corrects.
    0:10:12 Always throughout history, when it gets to these levels, it’s self-corrects.
    0:10:16 More bad news than means of self-correction are war, famine, and revolution.
    0:10:20 We’ll be right back for our conversation with David Bernad.
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    0:14:08 Welcome back. Here’s our conversation with David Bernad,
    0:14:12 the Emmy-winning executive producer for HBO’s The White Lotus.
    0:14:13 Oh, my God. Hello, gangster.
    0:14:16 Hello. A little thud to the white to the lotus.
    0:14:20 David, where does this podcast find you?
    0:14:21 Los Angeles.
    0:14:24 After two weeks on the road in Asia and D.C.,
    0:14:28 so lost my voice, but happy to be home.
    0:14:32 So this show, if I was a —
    0:14:34 and there’s a reason why I’m not an executive of HBO,
    0:14:36 but if I was pitched on the show,
    0:14:38 I’m not sure I would have seen it.
    0:14:39 It being this thing has sort of become
    0:14:41 a little bit of a cultural phenom.
    0:14:46 What do you think it is about this show that is tapped into —
    0:14:47 when people ask me, I say,
    0:14:48 “I love The White Lotus. I’m obsessed with it.”
    0:14:50 And they say, “Why?”
    0:14:52 I have a — if they ask me about Game of Thrones,
    0:14:55 I can kind of explain why I’m obsessed with it.
    0:14:58 And what is it about this show in your view
    0:15:01 that just sort of tapped into this kind of zeitgeist?
    0:15:03 It’s turned it into kind of this phenom?
    0:15:04 I should clarify.
    0:15:06 I think if HBO was pitched this show,
    0:15:08 they probably would have passed.
    0:15:10 Because to their credit,
    0:15:13 they basically called Mike White and said —
    0:15:16 this is July of 2020 when COVID had started.
    0:15:20 They said, “Do you have an idea that you could do in a bubble
    0:15:23 that can be on the air in 2021? We’ll do it.”
    0:15:25 And Mike said, “Yeah, I got one.”
    0:15:26 And he didn’t even have an idea.
    0:15:29 He basically had to come up with something in a month.
    0:15:31 And they basically sent us off to Hawaii.
    0:15:33 They had no idea what it was.
    0:15:34 They just trusted in Mike.
    0:15:37 And we came back with season one of “White Lotus.”
    0:15:41 But I think there’s an honesty to the show
    0:15:42 that people respond to.
    0:15:45 I think — you know, Mike White, I think, is a genius.
    0:15:50 And he’s an observer of humanity, an observer of character.
    0:15:53 And I think he writes from a very authentic place.
    0:15:55 You know, Mike — we both love reality TV.
    0:15:57 Mike loves reality TV.
    0:16:01 And I think he’s tapping into what people love about reality TV,
    0:16:05 which is every person is not all good or bad or funny or dramatic.
    0:16:08 We’re all — you know, most people are all flavors.
    0:16:10 And so I think he writes characters in that way.
    0:16:12 And people really respond to that.
    0:16:16 And I also think he talks about culture and the human experience
    0:16:18 in a very real, authentic way.
    0:16:20 And not a lot of people are doing that.
    0:16:23 Give us a little bit of your backstory.
    0:16:24 How did you get to this position?
    0:16:28 And what exactly does an executive producer do?
    0:16:30 Like, what have you been doing for the last three or four months?
    0:16:34 Yeah. So I’m from D.C., grew up there.
    0:16:38 And, you know, I wanted to be a producer since I was a little kid.
    0:16:41 I came across a movie shooting in a mall in D.C.
    0:16:44 called First Kid, The Sinbad Movie, when I was a kid.
    0:16:46 And somehow talked my way onto the set.
    0:16:47 I met the director.
    0:16:48 I met Sinbad.
    0:16:50 I met the other stars.
    0:16:52 And I kind of was like, this is what I want to do when I grew up.
    0:16:55 So I started in the mailroom at UTA.
    0:16:57 And really wanted to start at the bottom.
    0:17:01 Really wanted to kind of see all aspects of the business.
    0:17:05 And I was very fortunate to meet Mike White almost 20 years ago
    0:17:06 when I was at UTA.
    0:17:08 And I’ve been working with him ever since.
    0:17:11 And, you know, my parents don’t know what a producer does.
    0:17:13 I don’t think anyone really knows what a producer does.
    0:17:16 But I’m basically like the glue guy.
    0:17:20 Every project requires something different.
    0:17:23 You know, I do a show called Jury Duty that’s on Amazon.
    0:17:25 That’s a show that I originated.
    0:17:27 I’m intricately involved in the edit,
    0:17:29 intricately involved in the production, casting,
    0:17:31 all aspects of that.
    0:17:34 White Lotus is really Mike’s the genius of White Lotus.
    0:17:35 And I’m there to support him.
    0:17:39 You know, I’m very involved in, you know,
    0:17:42 every aspect of White Lotus when Mike needs me.
    0:17:44 So for the last three months, you know, we’ve been in post.
    0:17:49 I give notes on the edit, you know, I push on HBO,
    0:17:52 whether it’s about music, release date,
    0:17:54 marketing materials, promotion.
    0:17:56 I’m involved in, you know, all aspects of that.
    0:17:58 And really, you know, I’m there every day with Mike.
    0:18:01 You know, we start, we start on it together
    0:18:04 from the origination to scouting, to casting,
    0:18:07 to locations, to hiring of crew.
    0:18:09 And I’m there every day on set.
    0:18:14 So I kind of just, you know, I’m there to solve issues
    0:18:16 and prevent issues from coming up.
    0:18:18 When I think about the White Lotus,
    0:18:23 there seems to be a theme or a certain, I don’t know,
    0:18:25 someone told me that it’s about,
    0:18:27 it’s the different seven deadly sins.
    0:18:31 What are the creative anchors you try to hold on to?
    0:18:33 If you ended up doing a season eight,
    0:18:36 what do you think would be the common themes
    0:18:39 that would still be static through season eight
    0:18:41 that are present in one, two, and three?
    0:18:44 I mean, I think part of what makes the show,
    0:18:47 even in a certain season, like, you know,
    0:18:50 our ratings came out yesterday and the show was up,
    0:18:52 I think 92% from season one.
    0:18:55 So sorry, from season two, up 40% week to week.
    0:18:59 And I think part of that is, you know,
    0:19:00 what the thematic approach
    0:19:02 and what the idea of the show is evolving.
    0:19:06 So I don’t think we’d be able to say what season eight is.
    0:19:08 I think Mike is kind of responding to culture.
    0:19:12 And I think season one was definitely a reaction
    0:19:16 to what Mike was feeling in the moment with culture.
    0:19:20 And I think season two, which was kind of this, you know,
    0:19:22 it was a bedroom farce,
    0:19:24 but it really took on sexual politics
    0:19:28 was a response to something Mike was feeling.
    0:19:31 I think season three is much darker than the previous seasons.
    0:19:33 And it’s a little bit more existential
    0:19:35 and there’s a little bit more angst.
    0:19:37 And I think that speaks to how Mike was feeling in the moment.
    0:19:40 And I think he’s tackling existential themes
    0:19:41 and existential ideas.
    0:19:45 So it’s always going to feel current in that way.
    0:19:47 But what we’re tackling, I think,
    0:19:50 is a reaction to something that Mike is feeling.
    0:19:52 I’m curious with casting.
    0:19:54 Because when I first saw the lineup,
    0:19:58 how do you, when you think of a character and you think,
    0:20:00 okay, does it immediately go,
    0:20:03 Parker Posey would be the right person for this?
    0:20:04 Or does she read and you decide
    0:20:06 that she brings life to the character?
    0:20:07 I would think casting would be such a,
    0:20:09 is it an art or a science?
    0:20:10 How do you go about it?
    0:20:12 I mean, it’s a good question.
    0:20:15 I think it’s both, possibly.
    0:20:18 I think it’s definitely something that evolves
    0:20:19 and you kind of learn
    0:20:21 and you kind of sharpen your instincts.
    0:20:24 But it really, for us,
    0:20:26 the approach from season one has always been,
    0:20:27 don’t give in to the temptation
    0:20:31 to just cast someone famous or a name
    0:20:34 and really approach it with an authenticity
    0:20:38 in casting people that feel like they embody
    0:20:41 the characters and the traits of the storytelling.
    0:20:42 Because really Mike’s,
    0:20:44 what’s genius about Mike’s storytelling,
    0:20:46 it’s not really their characters,
    0:20:47 but those characters are just pawns
    0:20:49 in a bigger thematic idea.
    0:20:53 And each storyline is meant to resonate
    0:20:55 on a deeper level than just a character’s story.
    0:20:58 There’s a deeper theme to each story that’s being told.
    0:21:00 And so you really need characters
    0:21:02 that immediately, visually, you get it.
    0:21:06 And they feel authentic to the story that’s being told.
    0:21:10 So, you know, 98% of the actors audition.
    0:21:12 There’s someone like Parker Posey
    0:21:14 who Mike has known for a very long time
    0:21:16 and has a body of work
    0:21:18 that speaks to exactly what we were looking for.
    0:21:20 So someone like Parker didn’t audition,
    0:21:24 but, you know, everyone else on this season did.
    0:21:28 And I think we go into casting kind of blind to names.
    0:21:29 We’re not looking for names.
    0:21:31 We’re looking for the right person.
    0:21:32 And it’s a process.
    0:21:35 And I think the science through it
    0:21:39 really is kind of never deviating from those ideas.
    0:21:42 Don’t try to get seduced by big names.
    0:21:43 Really be thorough.
    0:21:46 Don’t rush and feel 100% confident
    0:21:48 whenever we make a decision.
    0:21:49 It’s a long process.
    0:21:53 The casting process is 10 weeks, usually it’s grueling.
    0:21:55 Meredith Tucker is our cast director.
    0:21:56 Mike went to college with.
    0:21:58 I’ve been working with her for 20 years.
    0:22:00 So we have a great shorthand.
    0:22:00 She’s amazing.
    0:22:04 And HBO, you know, they’re great partners where they trust us.
    0:22:07 And even if they might not agree with the casting decision,
    0:22:09 they, you know, they always give us the authority to do
    0:22:11 creatively what we feel is best.
    0:22:14 Even in the business for a couple of decades,
    0:22:17 describe, give us your sense.
    0:22:20 My understanding is that an executive producer
    0:22:24 at the end of the day, you’ve got to have business acumen.
    0:22:24 You got to understand budgets.
    0:22:26 You got to understand trends.
    0:22:28 You’re basically managing a small business
    0:22:31 that kind of gets funding, starts up and then closes down.
    0:22:33 And then you hopefully monetize it.
    0:22:36 What do you see are the major trends in Hollywood?
    0:22:38 And how has that shifted your approach to the business?
    0:22:41 You know, I’ve been in business 21, 22 years now.
    0:22:45 And I think for me, what I’ve seen is, you know,
    0:22:48 there was an expansion and now a contraction.
    0:22:53 And I think the biggest difference between, you know,
    0:22:57 2025 and 2023, I would say, as a producer, 2023,
    0:23:00 you could go out with a project and maybe it’s, you know,
    0:23:01 50/50 it sells.
    0:23:05 And you’re going to put a lot of energy and time into that.
    0:23:07 And 10% chance it gets made.
    0:23:08 It’s a flyer.
    0:23:10 And I’m going to kind of take 10 projects out.
    0:23:13 Six of them might be flyers like that.
    0:23:15 Those projects aren’t selling right now.
    0:23:17 So I’m really trying to kind of refocus my energy
    0:23:23 and refocus my time on projects I feel 80% about, 90% about,
    0:23:24 that when I take it out into the marketplace,
    0:23:25 they’re going to sell.
    0:23:30 And you know, that contraction feels like just a natural contraction.
    0:23:33 There was possibly too many shows being made.
    0:23:36 And those shows weren’t working.
    0:23:37 And I think there was just a, you know,
    0:23:39 it made it harder for shows to break out.
    0:23:43 So for me as a producer, you kind of just kind of ride the wave.
    0:23:46 I think to be a producer, you have to be an optimist.
    0:23:48 I think every producer would tell you that.
    0:23:50 So I wake up every morning going,
    0:23:52 today’s the day that my projects in a green light,
    0:23:56 I’m going to come out with a great idea that, you know,
    0:23:57 this show or movie is going to be a hit.
    0:23:59 And I approach every day in that way.
    0:24:02 And so because I take that approach,
    0:24:06 I don’t really change what I’m doing for better or worse.
    0:24:10 I really, I look for ideas and I look for writers or actors
    0:24:13 that I’m passionate about in themes I’m passionate about.
    0:24:16 And that’s how I approach every project.
    0:24:20 I don’t really kind of view the marketplace in a broader sense
    0:24:23 and kind of try to game the system.
    0:24:26 I just try to find things that I’m excited about.
    0:24:28 And that’s really, you know, to take it back to White Lotus,
    0:24:32 that’s really all White Lotus was, was Mike telling stories
    0:24:36 that he was passionate about, casting people he was excited about
    0:24:38 and not trying to think about, how do I make it hit?
    0:24:41 Or how do I, you know, speak to a broader audience?
    0:24:47 I want to put forward to DCs or observations as an outsider,
    0:24:49 like, I like to think I understand economics,
    0:24:51 so I’m fascinated with the industry and you respond to each of them.
    0:24:55 The first thesis is that what Japan did to Detroit,
    0:24:58 it kind of Netflix is doing to Los Angeles.
    0:25:02 And that is, I read that of the $18 billion content budget
    0:25:05 that Netflix spends annually on content,
    0:25:08 that for the first time, more than half of it is being spent overseas.
    0:25:12 And at the same time, I also read the productions down 40% in LA,
    0:25:15 is the globalization of the media industry
    0:25:19 the second capital kind of out of America, specifically out of Los Angeles?
    0:25:21 Is it as evident as I think it is?
    0:25:23 Maybe, you know, it’s a great question.
    0:25:27 Again, for as long as I’ve been the business production in LA
    0:25:28 in California has been an issue.
    0:25:32 I think it’s, you know, not having the numbers in front of me.
    0:25:35 And maybe those numbers of production in Los Angeles has decreased
    0:25:38 in the last, you know, 15, 20 years, which probably has.
    0:25:39 But I think it’s always been an issue.
    0:25:43 And, you know, there’s a push and pull, right?
    0:25:45 So you want more people to be employed.
    0:25:47 You want more shows to be made.
    0:25:48 You want more movies to be made.
    0:25:50 That requires a certain amount of budget.
    0:25:53 And then when you have a budget in front of you,
    0:25:55 you want to make 10 movies as opposed to eight.
    0:25:58 The best way to accomplish that may be to go to Canada,
    0:26:02 to go to, you know, X country that off Bulgaria,
    0:26:04 Hungary, Eastern Europe that offering certain rebates.
    0:26:06 So you can make more for less.
    0:26:09 And so I think it’s a fundamental issue.
    0:26:10 And it’s something that California needs to look at,
    0:26:15 is how can we get proper tax credits, production credits,
    0:26:17 to keep productions in Los Angeles?
    0:26:20 Because, you know, as a producer, you know,
    0:26:21 I live in Los Angeles.
    0:26:22 This is where my family is.
    0:26:23 This is where my friends are.
    0:26:24 I want to be in Los Angeles.
    0:26:26 So I’m not incentivized to leave.
    0:26:29 But if a, if Netflix or Paramount or Sony
    0:26:31 or HBO comes to me and they say,
    0:26:33 you have $10 million to make this movie or show.
    0:26:38 And I’m looking at the math and I can get 15 extra days
    0:26:41 if I go to Toronto and I can, you know,
    0:26:44 and I can pay more for cast or pay more for directors
    0:26:44 if I go to Vancouver.
    0:26:48 It’s, it’s a, it’s an easy decision to be honest,
    0:26:50 you know, even though it makes my life harder
    0:26:51 and it’s not something I want to do.
    0:26:55 And so it is so much easier to make movies
    0:26:58 and shows in Los Angeles, full stop.
    0:27:01 But until we solve the production, you know,
    0:27:05 tax credit issue, I think this will always be a conversation.
    0:27:07 Yeah, both cities you mentioned,
    0:27:08 you mentioned two cities in Canada.
    0:27:11 Is Canada, is that your go-to
    0:27:14 if you’re talking about talent versus economics?
    0:27:15 You’re stack-ranked.
    0:27:17 What do you think are the most popular places
    0:27:20 on a risk-adjusted basis when you look at costs
    0:27:23 versus access to talent and beautiful locales?
    0:27:23 I’ve been fortunate.
    0:27:25 I’ve shot in every tax.
    0:27:28 I’ve shot Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver, Atlanta,
    0:27:30 New Orleans or Louisiana.
    0:27:34 Like I’ve, I’ve shot in every one of these prominent rebate cities.
    0:27:37 You know, the thing as a producer what you’re weighing is,
    0:27:38 there’s always weather.
    0:27:39 Weather is always a concern and an issue.
    0:27:42 And each of these cities have different challenges.
    0:27:45 You know, Los Angeles, again, is the beauty of LLA is
    0:27:47 give or take maybe a month or two,
    0:27:48 you’re going to get great weather.
    0:27:53 But then you’re also looking at local crew, local casting.
    0:27:55 And does that city have, you know,
    0:27:58 a crew base and a talent actor base for,
    0:28:00 you know, for these smaller parts
    0:28:01 that it makes it worthwhile to shoot there?
    0:28:05 You know, I’m doing a movie for Netflix this summer.
    0:28:07 We’re going to be shooting in New York, New Jersey.
    0:28:09 There’s a really prominent rebate there.
    0:28:12 Now in New Jersey, I know a lot of productions are going there.
    0:28:14 And so that for me would be number one.
    0:28:20 I’ve had a lot of success in Atlanta and in New Orleans, Louisiana.
    0:28:22 I think those are both really great cities.
    0:28:23 To be honest, my favorite city I’ve shot in,
    0:28:27 and I’ve shot a movie there and the TV show there is Montreal.
    0:28:29 Crew’s amazing.
    0:28:32 Montreal is the best city in North America.
    0:28:36 Great food, great nightlife.
    0:28:38 And so Montreal is actually a really, it’s funny
    0:28:40 because Mike White and I shot a movie there,
    0:28:42 “Broad Status,” a Ben Stiller movie,
    0:28:43 which I think you would love, Scott.
    0:28:45 And I’ve since told a lot of friends
    0:28:46 to go shoot productions there.
    0:28:49 And it’s a really, they have a great tax credit,
    0:28:52 great crew, great local actors, and great lifestyle.
    0:28:58 Second thesis, that the opacity of information
    0:29:00 when you run something on Netflix,
    0:29:03 you don’t know how other than renewing the season,
    0:29:04 you don’t really know how well it’s doing.
    0:29:08 Jennifer Aniston’s agent knew that Friends was the anchor
    0:29:11 to the Thursday night and kind of reverse engineered
    0:29:13 how much ad revenue they were making
    0:29:15 and had the confidence to go ask
    0:29:17 for a million dollars per episode per cast member.
    0:29:21 And now that you really don’t know what’s working and what isn’t,
    0:29:27 it’s essentially what I perceive is a giant flow of capital
    0:29:30 from the industry, from the human capital
    0:29:33 to the shareholders of Netflix.
    0:29:35 Am I oversimplifying what’s gone on there?
    0:29:37 I have a controversial take on this
    0:29:39 because this is an issue that I’ve debated a lot.
    0:29:42 And I’ve been on all sides of this.
    0:29:45 So I had a show on NBC called “Superstore.”
    0:29:47 And I knew the numbers.
    0:29:48 We did 113 episodes.
    0:29:51 It’s the most successful sitcom on NBC
    0:29:53 in the last 15 years, 20 years.
    0:29:55 And I knew all the numbers.
    0:29:57 And we would renegotiate every two years
    0:29:58 whenever it was.
    0:30:02 And I wouldn’t say that we won the negotiations.
    0:30:03 Right?
    0:30:05 I did a show for Amazon called “Jury Duty.”
    0:30:08 Did not know any of the numbers.
    0:30:10 We’re not told a single number.
    0:30:14 And when we renegotiated, I feel like I won that negotiation.
    0:30:21 And to me, it boils down to as a seller of products
    0:30:25 in the supply and demand world of Hollywood.
    0:30:27 You don’t even need to know the numbers
    0:30:30 because you can feel the numbers when you negotiate.
    0:30:36 And ultimately, the success of a movie or show, in my opinion,
    0:30:38 having information doesn’t really,
    0:30:41 has not benefited me in my anecdotal experience.
    0:30:47 The energy from the buyer will dictate how well your show did.
    0:30:49 Because I saw the numbers on “Superstore,”
    0:30:50 and I thought it did amazing.
    0:30:52 But what I discovered in my negotiations
    0:30:54 is it wasn’t profitable for them.
    0:30:56 And it still isn’t profitable, I’m being told.
    0:30:59 And that’s a different conversation to the funky number,
    0:31:02 you know, the funky economics of studio accounting.
    0:31:05 But you can feel the energy in a negotiation
    0:31:09 when on the other side, if your show is working or not.
    0:31:12 And so without knowing any of my “Jury Duty” numbers,
    0:31:15 I know the show worked by the nature of the negotiation
    0:31:17 and how bad they wanted that show for a second season.
    0:31:19 That’s my opinion.
    0:31:22 And I know that might seem ignorant.
    0:31:26 But again, having information has never really benefited me.
    0:31:29 In “White Lotus 2,” in our renegotiation season to season,
    0:31:31 we don’t have the full scope of that show’s numbers.
    0:31:35 But I know it’s done well by the nature of HBO’s desire
    0:31:38 in demand for us to do another season.
    0:31:40 We’ll be right back.
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    0:32:48 We’re taking Vox Media podcasts on the road
    0:32:51 and heading back to Austin for the South by Southwest Festival,
    0:32:52 March 8th to the 10th.
    0:32:53 What is real?
    0:32:57 We’ll be doing special live episodes of hit shows,
    0:32:58 including Pivot.
    0:32:59 That’s right.
    0:33:01 The dog’s going to the great state of Texas.
    0:33:02 Where should we begin?
    0:33:07 With Esther Perrell, a Touch More with Sue Bird and Megan Rapinoe,
    0:33:12 not just football with Cam Hayward and more presented by Smartsheet.
    0:33:14 The Vox Media podcast stage at South by Southwest
    0:33:17 is open to all South by Southwest badge holders.
    0:33:20 We hope to see you at the Austin Convention Center soon.
    0:33:25 Visit voxmedia.com/sxsw to learn more.
    0:33:28 That’s voxmedia.com/sxsw.
    0:33:36 We’re taking Vox Media podcasts on the road
    0:33:39 and heading back to Austin for the South by Southwest Festival,
    0:33:41 March 8th to the 10th.
    0:33:41 What is real?
    0:33:46 Chicken fajita, queso, strawberry margarita, extra shot of tequila.
    0:33:49 There you’ll be able to see special live episodes of hit shows,
    0:33:51 including our show, Pivot.
    0:33:53 Where should we begin with Esther Perrell?
    0:33:56 A Touch More with Sue Bird and Megan Rapinoe,
    0:34:01 not just football with Cam Hayward and more presented by Smartsheet.
    0:34:05 The Vox Media podcast stage at South by Southwest
    0:34:07 is open to all South by Southwest badge holders.
    0:34:10 We hope to see you at the Austin Convention Center soon.
    0:34:11 I’m not joking.
    0:34:13 I love South by Southwest.
    0:34:14 The people are a ton of fun.
    0:34:15 It’s a great time.
    0:34:17 If you do come come up and say hi,
    0:34:22 visit voxmedia.com/sxsw to learn more.
    0:34:25 That’s voxmedia.com/sxsw.
    0:34:44 Take yourself back 22 years if you and you have the knowledge of knowing
    0:34:45 where this business is going to be today,
    0:34:47 or if someone’s starting out in the business,
    0:34:51 any kind of macro thoughts on their career that this part of the business
    0:34:54 is going to be the easiest place to find employment,
    0:34:56 this is the medium, the size of the screen,
    0:35:02 any advice to a 22-year-old Dave starting in this business?
    0:35:05 What do you see as the major themes
    0:35:06 and how does someone foot their efforts
    0:35:09 to try and take advantage of those things in the industry?
    0:35:10 Yeah, that’s a great question.
    0:35:13 And I do a lot of coffees and zooms with people,
    0:35:16 and my advice to anyone starting in the business would be,
    0:35:20 if there’s anything else on earth you can do, I would go do that.
    0:35:24 So your general advice is don’t?
    0:35:25 Yeah, I don’t do my advice.
    0:35:26 Like, because I think this is a,
    0:35:29 and you talk about a lot about this, I know,
    0:35:32 and it’s an incredibly difficult business.
    0:35:35 And I think making a living in this business
    0:35:37 has gotten harder and harder for whatever reason.
    0:35:41 And I think that this is something that I wake up every day,
    0:35:43 and I live it, I breathe it, it’s something I love,
    0:35:46 and I feel incredibly fortunate to be doing,
    0:35:48 and I can’t imagine doing anything else on earth.
    0:35:51 And unless you have that kind of energy and passion
    0:35:56 for creating content, I would go do something else.
    0:36:01 And I look back and I think about my personal journey,
    0:36:03 and I don’t even, there’s no straight line to it.
    0:36:08 It’s just a series of decisions that I made in the moment
    0:36:10 that somehow worked out.
    0:36:12 And I think there’s a, you know,
    0:36:15 and again, there’s an incredible amount of rejection
    0:36:18 in those enclosed doors on my journey.
    0:36:20 And I remember people would say to me,
    0:36:22 oh, you’re so lucky, and I would think to myself,
    0:36:26 well, you, maybe, but you also haven’t seen the insane amount
    0:36:29 of hours and dedication and sacrifice I put into this
    0:36:31 in my 20s and 30s to get to this level,
    0:36:34 and still, you know, something like White Lotus happened
    0:36:39 as a result of COVID and a bunch of series of fortunate events
    0:36:40 that led to White Lotus.
    0:36:43 And so it’s not like there’s no straight line
    0:36:48 and there’s no advice I can give other than go do something else
    0:36:50 unless you are willing to kind of sacrifice your,
    0:36:54 you know, 70s a week in most of your life to this business.
    0:36:57 And, you know, I was, I was reading an article yesterday,
    0:36:59 there was, you know, some article that’s like,
    0:37:03 you know, 35 year old podcaster that created a network
    0:37:05 about true crime, and she’s, you know,
    0:37:07 clearing like 40 million a profit every year.
    0:37:10 And I found myself thinking about like,
    0:37:13 oh, I’d give myself like advice to my younger self.
    0:37:15 I’d be like, get into pod, you know, you’re in,
    0:37:16 you know, to the business, but I’m like,
    0:37:20 get into some other new media business.
    0:37:25 Because, you know, it’s making film and TV is really challenging,
    0:37:29 really heartbreaking, and again, just difficult to make a living.
    0:37:31 And I’m, and I’m, and I’m saying this as someone
    0:37:33 who’s incredibly fortunate and who’s doing it.
    0:37:37 And that would be my advice, a little cynical and a little,
    0:37:39 little believe, but it’s true.
    0:37:43 What have you worked on that surprised you most of the upside
    0:37:46 or the downside in terms of its commercial success?
    0:37:49 Like what, what did you think was going to be bigger than it was,
    0:37:51 and what was bigger than you thought it might be?
    0:37:54 I mean, jury duty is a good example, and I don’t know if you’ve seen it,
    0:37:56 but it’s an interesting anecdote.
    0:38:00 It originated just, I was watching Netflix documentary on a couch,
    0:38:03 had a kernel of an idea, called a producer friend.
    0:38:05 It’s about 2017, 2018.
    0:38:06 We started talking about it.
    0:38:09 We kind of came up with this concept, brought it to writers.
    0:38:11 It was a long journey.
    0:38:14 But when we went out and pitched it, basically everyone passed,
    0:38:21 except for this woman, Lauren Anderson, who was taking over a segment of Amazon.
    0:38:23 It was called, at that point, it’s called IMDbTV.
    0:38:25 They rebranded the freebie.
    0:38:29 So Amazon proper had passed on it.
    0:38:31 It didn’t fit their algorithm or whatever their calculus was.
    0:38:36 And we just so happened to have perfect timing
    0:38:40 with this woman, Lauren Anderson, who basically invested in us and bet on us.
    0:38:42 It was a crazy concept.
    0:38:44 It was a verbal pitch, 10 minutes.
    0:38:49 And they gave us a healthy amount of money to make a very experimental show.
    0:38:53 And when the show launched, no one watched it.
    0:38:56 And we got bad reviews and it didn’t really work.
    0:39:00 And then over a weekend, someone on TikTok posted about it.
    0:39:03 And all of a sudden, it just became this hit.
    0:39:07 And it moved from freebie to Amazon proper.
    0:39:09 And then it was a hit on Amazon.
    0:39:12 And so I still don’t know why it worked.
    0:39:15 And maybe it was so original.
    0:39:17 But it kind of came out of nowhere.
    0:39:21 And that one surprised me the most.
    0:39:26 I think, you know, I did a show called White House Plumbers with Woody Harrelson.
    0:39:29 Fantastic, and Justin, yeah.
    0:39:31 And that one was a surprise.
    0:39:36 I think when that came out, I think we just kind of, it came out too late.
    0:39:38 I think that one was delayed because of COVID.
    0:39:39 And I’m really proud of that show.
    0:39:42 And I think by the time it came out, people were over, you know,
    0:39:45 nonfiction, historical nonfiction.
    0:39:50 And I feel like over, you know, oversaturized with political dramas.
    0:39:54 And that one, I feel like should have been worked better than it did.
    0:39:55 And I’m still very proud of it.
    0:39:59 And that one, you know, that was when I also worked on for 10 years
    0:40:00 before it was made.
    0:40:01 And that one was really personal to me.
    0:40:03 And I wish I had done better.
    0:40:05 But again, there’s no rhyme or reason.
    0:40:06 You can’t really time it.
    0:40:07 And that’s why it’s a tough business.
    0:40:11 You can’t really, all you can do is control what you make
    0:40:14 and whether audiences find it or not is so out of your control.
    0:40:17 And it really comes down to a lot of times timing in the universe.
    0:40:23 As my listeners will know, I bring on guests mostly to talk about me.
    0:40:25 So let’s get, let’s bring this back to me.
    0:40:30 So I met, I met David through a mutual friend, Ben Stiller.
    0:40:32 You’ve been friends with him for several decades.
    0:40:34 I’ve only been friends with Ben for a couple of years.
    0:40:38 And we hit it off and you reached out to me and said,
    0:40:42 is there any way I could talk you into doing a small cameo in the White Lotus?
    0:40:44 And my first response was, well, how much would that cost me?
    0:40:48 And so I’m super excited.
    0:40:54 David was generous enough to include me in a small role where I’m,
    0:40:54 well, you explain it.
    0:40:56 Who am I, David?
    0:40:57 I want to say one thing.
    0:41:02 Your podcasts, both of them are, you know, if you, if my Spotify rap,
    0:41:04 it’s number one, both your podcasts.
    0:41:10 And if I have to define my personality or someone to ask me,
    0:41:13 who, who kind of encapsulates your personality and point of view on the world?
    0:41:14 It’s Scott Galloway.
    0:41:18 And so, so me, that dinner with Ben was a, was a, for me,
    0:41:20 meeting my number one celebrity crush.
    0:41:25 And I have a, I have a text thread with six of my guy friends.
    0:41:28 And we’ve been texting every day for 15 years, I want to say.
    0:41:31 And it is, it is the embodiment of male friendship.
    0:41:32 It’s, it’s everything.
    0:41:37 It’s every, every concept, but you are a frequent point of conversation.
    0:41:39 And this is the ultimate compliment.
    0:41:44 I think we use your, we will reference you or use one of your articles or
    0:41:47 something you said on one of the podcasts to prove a point.
    0:41:51 And so just so you are, you are our friends, my friend, Neil Paris,
    0:41:55 Joe Ford, Neil Shaw, like these guys, we talk about you every day probably.
    0:41:57 So meeting you was a big, big thrill for me.
    0:42:01 Getting to, you know, developing a friendship with you has been a big thrill.
    0:42:07 And so we were casting a part for a lawyer and we need someone that,
    0:42:14 you know, was kind of, could deliver emotionless, very just to the point dialogue.
    0:42:18 And so we were on set and I said to Mike, I’m like, what about Scott Callow?
    0:42:20 And Mike’s a huge fan of yours also.
    0:42:24 And so, you know, I was thrilled when you said yes.
    0:42:29 I was nervous that maybe he wouldn’t be able to deliver.
    0:42:32 And so if you don’t mind, I’ll tell you the story.
    0:42:35 So we were in, I was in Kosimoui.
    0:42:38 You sent me the first, your first recordings.
    0:42:39 I listened to it.
    0:42:43 I almost shit my pants because I was like, I don’t know.
    0:42:44 This sucks.
    0:42:45 This sucks.
    0:42:46 I don’t know if this is going to fly.
    0:42:52 And I think I had, then I heard you mention it on, on, I think on Pivot.
    0:42:56 And so I was extra nervous that I was going to somehow disappoint you.
    0:42:57 I did not want to disappoint you.
    0:43:03 And so I called, I think I got, maybe I was back in LA or I might have been still in Thailand.
    0:43:08 And I called you and I said, would you mind possibly re-recording?
    0:43:10 You know, it was trying to be subtle about it.
    0:43:12 I didn’t want you to think that I was nervous.
    0:43:16 You, you were so managed me like, it’s great, but we think it can be better.
    0:43:20 I sent it to the editor.
    0:43:22 The editor was like, I don’t know if this is going to work.
    0:43:26 And then I was like, I had the, you know, I will give myself credit.
    0:43:30 I had the smart idea of sending Jason Isaacs over to your apartment.
    0:43:34 Just, you know, I was like, maybe Jason could help you read with you.
    0:43:37 And I remember I was like very anxious.
    0:43:39 I was like, Jason, call me as soon as you get out of there.
    0:43:43 Jason called me and he goes, we did an hour of takes.
    0:43:45 It could be all dog shit.
    0:43:46 Maybe there’s something in there.
    0:43:50 And I have to say genuinely, you are great in the show.
    0:43:55 In that, in those hour of recordings, we found gold.
    0:43:57 And as soon as Mike heard it, he loved it.
    0:43:59 Honestly, like it was, it was like, okay, this is great.
    0:44:00 I know Mike told me he wrote you.
    0:44:02 So, you know, so you know, I’m not full of shit.
    0:44:06 And, and I will be honest, like in all my text read,
    0:44:07 I was like keeping everyone updated.
    0:44:10 I’m like, we might have to cut scoff from the show.
    0:44:11 I’m, I’m freaking out.
    0:44:12 I love that.
    0:44:13 Because they were talking about it too.
    0:44:17 And so I was really nervous, but I’m glad it worked out.
    0:44:21 And I, I’m, I’m hoping this is the beginning of a long Hollywood career for you.
    0:44:24 And you become, and when you win an Emmy, you have to thank me on stage.
    0:44:25 That’s all I ask.
    0:44:27 Well, you, you don’t know this.
    0:44:28 I’ve had five TV shows already, Dave.
    0:44:30 They’ve all been canceled within two or three weeks.
    0:44:33 So I have a face for podcasting, but I’ll give you my side of the story.
    0:44:39 I thought I did an amazing job and I sent it to you and you were very supportive.
    0:44:42 And I remember telling my, my, I take care, oh my God, I killed it.
    0:44:43 I was so good.
    0:44:46 And then I got the message from you saying, we think we can do better.
    0:44:51 And this handsome guy shows up to my apartment with movie star, good looks.
    0:44:52 I didn’t know who Jason Isaac was.
    0:44:53 I didn’t put the two and two together.
    0:44:56 I’m like, I’m like, dude, you’re the guy from the Patriot.
    0:45:00 And he’s, he’s actually one of these very accomplished British actors.
    0:45:03 And by the way, I think in the white lotus, the first two episodes,
    0:45:05 I think he kind of owns the screen whenever he’s on it.
    0:45:07 I think Parker is amazing because she’s just so quirky.
    0:45:10 But I think, I think Jason kind of owns the screen whenever he’s on it.
    0:45:15 But anyways, he came over, he was on his way to a tennis lesson, this like handsome guy.
    0:45:17 And he’s like, I’m here to help.
    0:45:21 And we went into my studio and for an hour I’d hit a line and he’d go like,
    0:45:22 okay, this is the situation.
    0:45:28 I’m about to fire you and you don’t know what to say and you’re a little scared.
    0:45:28 Hit the line.
    0:45:31 And then he’d be like, no, hit it again, dial it up.
    0:45:36 And I walked away or he would say to me, this guy’s such an asshole and you just found out.
    0:45:36 He’s like, look at that’s good.
    0:45:40 But now this guy’s such an asshole and you just found out he’s having an affair with your wife.
    0:45:42 He’s like, let it sink in, let it sink in.
    0:45:42 Now hit it.
    0:45:48 And he made me do this over and over with different situations and different emotions
    0:45:54 and different feelings. And I walked away from that hour with such an appreciation
    0:45:57 for just how fucking hard it is what you do.
    0:46:01 Because I thought, oh, I’ve been in boardrooms.
    0:46:02 I know how to own a room.
    0:46:05 I know how to deliver something unemotionally.
    0:46:06 That’s not it.
    0:46:10 That’s not enough in Hollywood to really get across the board.
    0:46:12 There’s so much more that goes into it.
    0:46:21 And people don’t appreciate just how fucking difficult it is to bring out the emotions
    0:46:23 and the resonance and the logic and move an audience.
    0:46:28 And I’m not saying that scene was able to do it, but you’re able to do it.
    0:46:29 And so are other creatives.
    0:46:33 And when this guy walked out of my house, my tech guy was there, Drew.
    0:46:35 And he’s on the line now.
    0:46:37 And I remember saying to Drew, I’m not sure.
    0:46:40 But I think that guy just turned chicken shit into chicken salad.
    0:46:43 And he was so good.
    0:46:43 This is an actor.
    0:46:46 I’m not sure he’s even directed before.
    0:46:54 But he was in my face, sweating, burning calories, giving me weird, strange advice
    0:46:57 to try and get my voice up, down, try and put me in the right frame.
    0:47:01 And I remember thinking, what these people do, whatever they’re making,
    0:47:02 they’re not making enough.
    0:47:04 Because what this is is hard.
    0:47:08 And it was such an illuminating experience for me.
    0:47:10 So thank you for that.
    0:47:13 It gave me a new appreciation for the art form.
    0:47:17 Because I think a lot of people think that acting is just showing up and being who you are.
    0:47:19 Oh my god, it’s not.
    0:47:23 It was one of the most difficult taxing hours I’ve ever had.
    0:47:29 It was really– I can’t imagine what it’s like to be on set and have all this alchemy
    0:47:32 and it’s not working, and then to try coach people through it.
    0:47:37 It’s got to be– you are juggling, I would think, just a ton of plates,
    0:47:41 except the plates are our actors, directors, cinematographers.
    0:47:43 It must be just incredibly difficult.
    0:47:44 Your thoughts, David.
    0:47:52 Imagine that experience with 200 people looking at you and the stress of a schedule,
    0:47:56 trying to get to the scene, losing light, and all of that.
    0:48:00 And for actors to be able to perform on set under that pressure
    0:48:04 and deliver great performances, it is a true talent and is not easy.
    0:48:12 But it’s funny, Jason Isaacs is an incredibly accomplished guy and he loves acting.
    0:48:15 I think he took so much pleasure in that hour he spent with you.
    0:48:18 I think he’s the kind of guy who would talk about acting
    0:48:21 and would be acting 24 hours a day if someone would pay him.
    0:48:22 Or he would do it for free, honestly.
    0:48:28 But yeah, I make little cameos and most of the stuff I do.
    0:48:33 And I pop up in white lotus and every time I’m on set and I’m in a scene
    0:48:36 and I don’t have any dialogue, usually it’s kind of I’m doing some sort of action.
    0:48:40 I’m like, thank fucking God, I don’t want to be an actor.
    0:48:44 Because it is a hard, hard job to kind of,
    0:48:47 and also to give yourself to a camera and be that vulnerable.
    0:48:52 But it also speaks to how talented directors are to be able to manage.
    0:48:55 Everyone has an ego, right?
    0:48:57 And so you’re basically going up to someone and going,
    0:48:59 that was kind of shitty.
    0:49:01 Can you do it a different way?
    0:49:03 Or your instincts are off, do it my way?
    0:49:06 And how do you deliver that in a way that doesn’t offend them
    0:49:08 and get what you want out of the actor?
    0:49:11 But yeah, it’s tough.
    0:49:13 It’s all, it’s a tough business.
    0:49:17 And again, it speaks to great performances are not easy to come by.
    0:49:21 So just as we wrap up here, a lot of young men listen to the show
    0:49:24 and they hear someone successful like you
    0:49:25 and they think, I’d like to be that guy.
    0:49:28 Can you talk a little bit about growing up
    0:49:30 who are really the big influences in your life,
    0:49:34 people or kind of situations that sort of change your life?
    0:49:37 Yeah, I mean, this is something that I really love about your work
    0:49:39 and what you talk about and something that really resonates with me.
    0:49:42 And my parents are both Hungarian immigrants
    0:49:45 and my grandparents are all Holocaust survivors.
    0:49:47 And my father is someone who,
    0:49:51 he didn’t speak the language when he immigrated from Budapest.
    0:49:53 He ended up in Montreal and eventually in America.
    0:49:57 But he’s someone, my grandfather made sure my father
    0:50:03 really learned what work ethic is and an appreciation for work.
    0:50:04 And that’s something my father instilled in me.
    0:50:07 And he was probably my first mentor,
    0:50:11 but I had a English teacher and a basketball coach named Mike Hibbs
    0:50:13 who changed my life and introduced me to storytelling.
    0:50:17 And it was so tough on me from a place of love
    0:50:19 and a place that really responded.
    0:50:21 So when I started at UTA and I was in the mailroom,
    0:50:24 nothing was ever going to be as difficult and challenging
    0:50:28 as my basketball coach and English teacher and how he pushed me.
    0:50:33 And that mail mentorship really changed my life.
    0:50:36 And I told my English teacher, Mike Hibbs,
    0:50:38 when I was in high school,
    0:50:40 that I was one day going to fly him out to a premiere
    0:50:42 when I make my first movie.
    0:50:45 And I flew him out for the white lotus premiere two weeks ago.
    0:50:47 And it was almost 30 years to when I told him I would do that.
    0:50:51 And having him there was so moving for me.
    0:50:52 And I think moving for him,
    0:50:55 and he’s someone who’s dedicated his life to mentoring young men,
    0:51:00 whether it’s on the basketball court or in the English class.
    0:51:02 And I think for me,
    0:51:06 I wanted him to see what his mentorship meant to me
    0:51:08 and what I was able to accomplish.
    0:51:11 And I feel very fortunate I have that relationship.
    0:51:13 And you talk a lot about this.
    0:51:17 And even my text read, I was referencing my six buddies.
    0:51:18 We push each other every day.
    0:51:22 And those friendships really, they ground you
    0:51:23 and they keep you humble,
    0:51:24 but they also push you in a way.
    0:51:28 And I would say that that’s really why I’m here today.
    0:51:30 Honestly, talking to you is where those relationships.
    0:51:34 And whenever I’ve known you for that long,
    0:51:37 but it seems like you’re always in eight time zones away,
    0:51:41 how do you, and I know very little about your personal life,
    0:51:43 how do you, and maybe you don’t,
    0:51:46 how do you establish any sort of momentum or traction
    0:51:47 in a relationship?
    0:51:47 I don’t.
    0:51:49 I mean, I’m single, I’m 44.
    0:51:53 And that’s a part of my life.
    0:51:59 I feel like I’ve sacrificed to kind of get to where I am currently.
    0:52:02 And I’ve tried to maintain those relationships,
    0:52:06 but part of being a producer and part of being a producer
    0:52:08 is actually they’re doing the work.
    0:52:11 It almost becomes all-encompassing.
    0:52:14 So it’s hard at night to give yourself emotionally
    0:52:16 or in the morning before work,
    0:52:18 because you’re either, your tank is at zero
    0:52:20 or you’re distracted.
    0:52:22 And that’s something that, you know, I’ve,
    0:52:25 that’s something that I haven’t figured out also in my life
    0:52:27 and how to find that balance
    0:52:28 and something that I’m, you know,
    0:52:31 I need to work on and be better at because, you know,
    0:52:34 and it’s, and you know, I have another really great mentor,
    0:52:38 one of the partners at CAA who right before I went to go
    0:52:41 do white lotus season three said to me,
    0:52:42 he sent me an email and he said, you know,
    0:52:44 I really, I’d love for you to come by CAA
    0:52:45 and see me before you leave.
    0:52:47 And I thought he was going to talk to me about some work stuff.
    0:52:51 And I went to his office and he said, you know,
    0:52:51 I don’t want to talk about work.
    0:52:52 You’re doing great.
    0:52:54 And I’m really proud of you.
    0:52:56 What I want to talk about is your personal life
    0:52:58 and the fact I don’t want you to end up like me.
    0:53:01 And how can we change that part of your life?
    0:53:03 And he, you know, and he took an interest
    0:53:05 and that’s, you know, that really meant a lot to me.
    0:53:07 And it’s something that I’ve been thinking about
    0:53:10 and how do I, how do I find that balance?
    0:53:11 And that’s something I haven’t figured out yet.
    0:53:16 And what do you do for sort of meditation or relaxation
    0:53:17 or just to stay kind of centered,
    0:53:20 given the amount of anxiety and insecurity in your industry?
    0:53:23 I mean, I’m not just, I listen to pivot.
    0:53:25 I’m not kidding.
    0:53:25 Oh yeah.
    0:53:26 I’m not joking.
    0:53:27 That’s what everybody needs.
    0:53:27 I’m not joking.
    0:53:30 Like I, I’m not kidding when I say, you know,
    0:53:33 all my downtime, every flight,
    0:53:36 you kind of narrated my experience in Thailand.
    0:53:39 And, you know, we, I must have been on 45 flights last year,
    0:53:41 you know, in and out of Thailand.
    0:53:44 And I was, I would listen to Prof. G or your pivot.
    0:53:48 I mean, I, for me, you know, I watch a lot of reality TV,
    0:53:52 to be honest, and, and listen to podcasts and, and, you know,
    0:53:55 finding a good hobby or getting into meditation,
    0:53:57 something I need to also figure out.
    0:53:58 I, I have a lot of work to do on myself.
    0:54:00 It’s basically what I’m learning from this conversation.
    0:54:04 But I really, I haven’t found that, that thing yet
    0:54:06 that helps me fully disconnect.
    0:54:09 Cause, you know, even listening to pivot
    0:54:12 or listening to, you know, that to me is partly does that work.
    0:54:14 I, I basically have taken a lot of good stock advice from you.
    0:54:16 You’ve made me some good money.
    0:54:19 So I owe you a dinner next time we see you, but.
    0:54:20 I think I owe you.
    0:54:21 Yeah. No.
    0:54:25 When my kids, when my kids hear me in the white lotus, I owe you.
    0:54:25 I haven’t told them.
    0:54:28 I can’t tell you how excited I haven’t told them.
    0:54:29 We’re going to watch it.
    0:54:31 I, it’s going to be, you’re, you have brought,
    0:54:32 you are going to bring so much credibility
    0:54:35 to me amongst my 14 and seven year olds.
    0:54:39 So I owe you a couple, just a couple more serious questions before we go.
    0:54:43 Anyone in your life you lost or that’s not around,
    0:54:44 that you wish you could say something to.
    0:54:49 Yeah. I, when I was, uh, when I was working at UTA and I was an assistant and,
    0:54:52 and I, and that was one of the best experiences of my life,
    0:54:54 being in the, going from the mail room, working for a partner,
    0:54:57 David Kramer there who, who also was a huge mentor,
    0:55:00 like he was a huge mentor in my life and he would,
    0:55:02 every Monday morning I’d come in and he’d say,
    0:55:04 how many scripts to read this weekend?
    0:55:06 And if I, you know, and I would say six,
    0:55:08 he was not good enough, eight, that’s not good enough, 10, you know,
    0:55:11 so he really pushed me, my work ethic.
    0:55:14 And I met this young assistant named James Cap,
    0:55:16 Jay Kaplan, James Kaplan,
    0:55:19 who was working for these directors, David and Ferris.
    0:55:21 And we struck up a really amazing friendship.
    0:55:25 And he helped me find the strength to leave UTA
    0:55:28 and go kind of really pursue my creative dreams.
    0:55:30 And we were starting a company and we,
    0:55:32 we’d actually sold our first project.
    0:55:34 We were negotiating a producing deal together.
    0:55:37 And, you know, we, he died suddenly.
    0:55:38 He had a brain aneurysm at 28.
    0:55:44 And he collapsed and I rushed to UCLA hospital.
    0:55:47 I was there at his bedside and he passed away.
    0:55:49 And, and he had just got married.
    0:55:51 He had just directed his first commercial.
    0:55:53 And again, we had just sold our first project.
    0:55:56 And, you know, I dedicate every movie and show I do, I did,
    0:55:57 I put him in the, in the dedication and,
    0:55:59 and I think about him every day.
    0:56:02 And, and for me, I don’t think I’d be,
    0:56:04 I definitely want to be where I’m at now without him
    0:56:05 and that relationship.
    0:56:08 And, and we talked every day
    0:56:09 and we were such a great sounding board
    0:56:10 and it was such a huge loss.
    0:56:14 And so I, you know, I wish he was here to kind of see
    0:56:15 what I’ve been able to accomplish.
    0:56:16 And for me to tell him I love him
    0:56:19 and how much he meant to me and how much, you know,
    0:56:21 his support as a friend, you know,
    0:56:24 during some tough times and in my 20s really, really helped me.
    0:56:30 And last thing, anybody in this can be serious, not serious.
    0:56:33 He’d just love to give a shout out to
    0:56:36 and have them be surprised that if and when they hear about this,
    0:56:38 you just are thinking of just something,
    0:56:41 someone you’re thinking about and anything you’d like to say to them
    0:56:42 and it’ll get back to them.
    0:56:45 Yeah. I mean, Neil Paris, it’s really my group of friends
    0:56:46 because we talk about it every day.
    0:56:52 Neil Paris, Neil Shaw, Joe Port, Ravi Patel, Evan Winaker,
    0:56:55 Mayor Setti, that’s my, my text thread.
    0:56:58 We, you, like I told you, you come up almost daily.
    0:57:00 And I think they were the first persons,
    0:57:02 first people I told that I was coming on the show.
    0:57:05 I think there’s probably a, you know,
    0:57:07 like in every great group of male friends,
    0:57:11 they’re, they’re probably jealous, they’re competitive,
    0:57:12 but also proud of me.
    0:57:17 And so I think I’m really, yeah, I think.
    0:57:18 And also each of them are like,
    0:57:20 you better shout us out on the podcast.
    0:57:22 Well, box checked.
    0:57:25 David Bernad is the Emmy winning executive producer
    0:57:27 for HBO’s The White Lotus,
    0:57:29 who’s also known for producing Uncharted,
    0:57:33 Jury Duty, Enlightened and, and I didn’t know this,
    0:57:34 White House Plumber.
    0:57:35 He joins us from Los Angeles.
    0:57:38 David, you are so far ahead of where I was.
    0:57:42 I didn’t appreciate just how precious and wonderful it is
    0:57:44 to have to kind of the friend group you have.
    0:57:47 And what you’re going to find is that you are the average
    0:57:49 in their science of this of those five guys.
    0:57:51 And so you guys building and loving each other.
    0:57:55 It just, it’s, it’s, it’s not only incredibly rewarding.
    0:57:57 It’s a smart thing to do because you guys will progress
    0:57:58 and you’ll fall together.
    0:58:02 And I’m telling you in 15 years,
    0:58:04 you’re going to look back hopefully on your kids
    0:58:06 and your career.
    0:58:07 And you’re going to feel great,
    0:58:09 but it almost means nothing.
    0:58:12 It’s almost as if it doesn’t happen without that text group.
    0:58:14 And you’re just a great exam.
    0:58:16 I’m just so happy for your success and that you found,
    0:58:20 you have your like tribe of people to share it with.
    0:58:20 Thanks so much, David.
    0:58:22 And again, thanks for the opportunity.
    0:58:23 This was such a treat for me.
    0:58:24 Thank you, Scott.
    0:58:38 [Music]
    0:58:39 Algebra of happiness.
    0:58:41 When you’re overwhelmed with information overload,
    0:58:42 how do you respond?
    0:58:45 This isn’t about stress management.
    0:58:48 It’s about how to, if you’re in an organization
    0:58:50 and you just have so much information
    0:58:53 and different, different touch points
    0:58:56 or you are barraged with information
    0:58:59 that you find is like outrageous
    0:59:00 or there’s too many things going on.
    0:59:01 I’m obviously speaking about what’s going on
    0:59:03 across our government right now.
    0:59:04 And I think it’s a purposeful strategy
    0:59:07 to sort of blitzkrieg you with information
    0:59:10 such that you don’t focus on their true objectives
    0:59:11 or what’s really important.
    0:59:13 And it’s easy to feel kind of flat footed
    0:59:14 and how do you strike back.
    0:59:16 And I’ve, for about a week,
    0:59:19 just felt sort of overwhelmed and didn’t know what to do.
    0:59:21 And I don’t like the idea of being offended
    0:59:23 and outraged and responding to everything.
    0:59:24 And I think there’s just some basics
    0:59:26 around communication and responding effectively
    0:59:30 when people are kind of in your face
    0:59:32 or things are happening at work
    0:59:33 that you feel overloaded by
    0:59:35 because there’s so many things that upset you.
    0:59:38 And the first is to respond in a thoughtful way
    0:59:40 and recognize you don’t need to respond to everything.
    0:59:41 You need to prioritize.
    0:59:44 At the end of the day, what’s really important here?
    0:59:46 There might be things that are outrageous.
    0:59:48 The most recent one, as I’ve heard,
    0:59:51 the Trump administration is thinking about
    0:59:53 advocating for or pardoning Andrew Tate.
    0:59:55 Yeah, that’s outrageous.
    1:00:00 Who the fuck cares with some loser in Romania
    1:00:04 that was spending time sex trafficking
    1:00:06 or in a webcam business
    1:00:09 and trying to sign a vulnerable young man to his crypto year?
    1:00:10 Who the fuck cares?
    1:00:12 But that’s a look over here.
    1:00:14 That’s not important.
    1:00:16 You don’t have to respond to everything.
    1:00:17 Take a beat.
    1:00:19 You don’t have to respond immediately to everything
    1:00:22 and shout into Twitter or into TikTok.
    1:00:23 That’s not…
    1:00:26 The world doesn’t need to hear from you on everything.
    1:00:29 And then bring, when you do respond,
    1:00:31 one, pick one or two issues
    1:00:32 that you feel especially strongly about
    1:00:34 that you think deserve priority
    1:00:37 and that you, one, have some domain expertise in
    1:00:40 and also bring in outside experts and facts
    1:00:43 and try and be very thoughtful and methodical and unemotional.
    1:00:45 If you can be offended, you can be manipulated.
    1:00:47 And when you’re offended all the fucking time,
    1:00:49 it just shows quite frankly you’re a little bit weak
    1:00:51 and a little bit easily manipulated.
    1:00:54 This is how you effectively counterpunch
    1:00:56 because keep in mind a lot of people
    1:00:57 will try and overwhelm you.
    1:00:59 You know when you get an argument with your spouse
    1:01:00 and they’re losing and they immediately
    1:01:02 start bringing up something else.
    1:01:04 Okay, don’t go there.
    1:01:05 Don’t go there.
    1:01:07 Or they try and gaslight you with something else.
    1:01:08 Be disciplined.
    1:01:10 Be an adult.
    1:01:11 Be a warrior around this stuff.
    1:01:14 That is slow down.
    1:01:16 You don’t need to respond to everything.
    1:01:18 Pick the one or two issues that are most important to you.
    1:01:19 Come with data.
    1:01:20 Come with experts.
    1:01:21 Be reasonable.
    1:01:22 Be thoughtful.
    1:01:25 This is information warfare, right?
    1:01:27 This is storytelling versus storytelling.
    1:01:29 You don’t have to respond to anything.
    1:01:31 And if you can’t figure out a way
    1:01:33 not to be offended by everything,
    1:01:35 that means you are a mark.
    1:01:36 You are what they want.
    1:01:38 You are easily manipulated.
    1:01:44 This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez.
    1:01:46 Our intern is Dan Shalon.
    1:01:47 Drew Burroughs is our technical director.
    1:01:49 Thank you for listening to the PropG pod
    1:01:51 from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
    1:01:53 We will catch you on Saturday
    1:01:56 for “No Mercenome Mouse,” as read by George Hahn.
    1:01:58 And please follow our PropG Markets Pod
    1:01:59 wherever you get your pods
    1:02:02 for new episodes every Monday and Thursday.
    1:02:05 [MUSIC PLAYING]
    1:02:08 (upbeat music)
    1:02:18 [BLANK_AUDIO]

    David Bernad, the Emmy-winning executive producer for HBO’s “The White Lotus,” joins Scott to discuss the making of White Lotus, the start of Scott’s potential Hollywood career, and the shifting landscape of Hollywood.

    Stay until the end to hear a surprise about the next episode of The White Lotus!

    Follow David, @davidbernad.

    Scott opens with his thoughts on the growing influence of high earners on the economy and what it means for businesses and the middle class.

    Algebra of Happiness: you don’t need to respond to everything.

    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

  • Scott’s Career Advice: Imposter Syndrome, Startups & Networking

    AI transcript
    0:00:04 support for this show comes from indeed indeed sponsored jobs can help you
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    0:00:27 dot com slash vox CA just go to indeed dot com slash vox CA right now and
    0:00:31 support the show by saying you heard about indeed on this podcast indeed
    0:00:37 dot com slash vox CA terms and conditions apply hiring indeed is all you need
    0:00:43 welcome to office hours with property today we’re kicking off a special two
    0:00:46 part series all about careers navigating them advancing them maybe even
    0:00:52 surviving them I’ll be sharing my best advice which may not be very good no
    0:00:56 corporate speak no bullshit I am going to tell you exactly what I’m thinking and
    0:00:59 might offend you and I might upset you and guess what we’re both going to be
    0:01:04 fine let’s bust right into it first question
    0:01:11 hey prof G my name is Hank and I’m an American that’s been living in Stockholm
    0:01:16 Sweden for the last eight years and I’ve really loved your at office hours
    0:01:20 advice listening to your opinion on things and what I thought that would be
    0:01:26 very helpful to get your thoughts on is dealing with imposter syndrome all the
    0:01:30 time I feel like when I’m working that I don’t know maybe I’m not good enough
    0:01:36 even though from all my previous jobs all the feedbacks been great and now I’m
    0:01:40 about to move on to a CMO role which I think it’s kind of way out of my league
    0:01:46 even though all the interactions with the CEO and all the interview processes
    0:01:49 weren’t really well so I don’t feel like I should have those feelings but again
    0:01:53 they’re still there just wondering if you’ve ever faced this in your life and
    0:01:58 do you have any strategies to kind of get over this anyway looking forward to
    0:02:02 your thoughts and thank you so much for everything Hank from Sweden the data says
    0:02:06 with imposter syndrome that you’re supposed to practice self-compassion
    0:02:10 be kind to yourself acknowledge and accept your feelings challenge negative
    0:02:15 thoughts say well the market and other people who are smart think I’m in the
    0:02:19 right position so maybe there’s something to their views I find that talking
    0:02:23 stuff out really helps like telling people Jesus I feel like I’m in over my
    0:02:28 head or I don’t deserve it I just feel like you know getting those thoughts out
    0:02:33 help address them and hearing yourself talk you start to solve that type of
    0:02:38 thing being positive I mean eating eating well being a good shape and I
    0:02:41 think you just start to feel more confident across all areas of your life
    0:02:44 like I’m strong and I’m healthy which means I’d be really good at anything
    0:02:49 including my job so it’s imposter syndrome is a form of intellectual self-doubt
    0:02:54 that can affect anyone regardless of their job people with imposter syndrome
    0:02:58 often feel like they could have done better even when things go well I think
    0:03:01 if you don’t have a little bit of imposter syndrome it probably means
    0:03:07 you’re a bit of a sociopath or arrogant because the whole point of the reason
    0:03:12 we’re so competitive is that it’s good for the species right I want to do better
    0:03:16 than the gyrogal next to me which creates better performance which results in a
    0:03:20 better society and onward and onward and things get better so this competitive
    0:03:24 spirit is important constantly referencing and comparing yourself to
    0:03:28 others is natural and that’s part of that competitive instinct but it can result
    0:03:35 in a lot of self-doubt and I just think well first off a lot of people have this
    0:03:39 I just said on a previous office hours that I’ve never felt like it was
    0:03:43 qualified to do anything I did and then I realized when I showed up that
    0:03:46 everyone else is an imposter too and everyone else feels as if they’re an
    0:03:50 imposter so it sounds like you’re doing really well acknowledge everyone around
    0:03:54 you that they might be smarter than you think and it picked you for a lot of good
    0:03:58 reasons I would say be kind to yourself try and engage in things that make you
    0:04:02 feel positive I think working out and eating well make you feel talented and
    0:04:05 healthy and that you would be good at almost anything because you’re the
    0:04:11 strong healthy person but recognize everyone feels a little bit of that and
    0:04:14 again go back to the notion that the market may be smarter than you think
    0:04:19 and you deserve to be where you are thanks for the question question number
    0:04:24 two hi prof G my name is Nicholas and I’m a huge fan of your podcasts special
    0:04:29 shout out to Ed for having to laugh at your dig chokes anyway I’m 36 Canadian
    0:04:33 and have about 10 years of experience as a business generalist I started as an
    0:04:38 engineer got a top MBA and then spent about five years in Luxembourg at
    0:04:42 McKinsey and Amazon tired of corporate I moved to the south of France to join my
    0:04:46 in-laws family business only to confirm your thoughts about that region great
    0:04:51 place to spend but not to earn so my wife to kids and I have moved to Toronto for
    0:04:55 better opportunities now I think my best move would be to join an early-stage
    0:05:00 startup as a COO or chief of staff to build a company and some wealth along
    0:05:04 the way which sounds super interesting and challenging my question to you is
    0:05:09 this knowing the high failure rate of early-stage companies what advice do
    0:05:13 you have for picking a winner how can I assess which startup is worth betting
    0:05:16 this next chapter of my career on thanks and keep doing what you’re doing
    0:05:20 thanks very much Nicholas from Canada what an interesting life you’ve led and
    0:05:25 how it’s kind of good to be you okay so it sounds like you want to go to a
    0:05:32 startup so first up nobody knows and you there’s hints what I’ve always done is
    0:05:36 I’ve always picked people not companies and that is if you have the opportunity
    0:05:40 interview with small firms you want to go where you think the people are most
    0:05:42 impressive because a lot of times the small companies they end up doing
    0:05:46 something that they hadn’t originally anticipated but if the people are super
    0:05:51 smart they can more often than not figure it out so I think you want to go
    0:05:53 somewhere where you think the person I’m going to report into I’m going to learn
    0:05:59 a lot and these people just seem really together now hopefully if it’s just a
    0:06:02 stupid idea then fine there might have been a lot of smart people with that dog
    0:06:08 walking app back by soft bank but that was just a stupid idea but you basically
    0:06:11 want to go into battle with people that you want to go to you know you would
    0:06:16 want to go into battle with and then also I think the where the company is in
    0:06:20 the life cycle sort of interesting my general experience is that joining a
    0:06:25 company with zero to ten employees is it the risk-reward ratio isn’t there now
    0:06:28 if the if the company works those people make a shit ton of money but those are
    0:06:31 the people we read about in the newspaper we don’t read about the six out of
    0:06:34 seven companies and end up with a zero even worse than that sometimes they go
    0:06:38 three five ten twenty years and then end up with nothing that happened to me at
    0:06:42 run envelope I was there ten years to work my ass off invested three million
    0:06:46 dollars in my own capital to end up with nothing that story doesn’t get told a
    0:06:53 lot although I tell it a lot but the zero to ten is huge upside but I would
    0:06:56 argue like if you’re not the founder and you’re not going to get 20 or 30% of the
    0:07:00 company I’m not sure the risk-reward is there at the same time when you join a
    0:07:04 company that’s already had a couple thousand people unless it’s a moonshot
    0:07:08 like a Google or a Salesforce you’ll make good money but you’ll never make super
    0:07:13 super huge money I find that the sweet spot from a risk-reward standpoint is
    0:07:19 kind of 20 to 200 employees and that is you’re still early enough to get
    0:07:24 significant equity but if they’re at that point it means that they have
    0:07:29 probably some level of product market fit so I find that sort of the sweet
    0:07:34 spot of risk-reward especially given that you have you have a family in
    0:07:38 addition there’s other signals who are the people who have back the company how
    0:07:43 much capital have they raised how much press have they received there’s you
    0:07:47 know not all of these are you know it’s sort of a good housekeeping stamp of
    0:07:51 approval which by the way approves talcum powder which ended up giving people
    0:07:56 all sorts of cancer so it’s not a guarantee but when there’s good people
    0:08:02 and VCs or customers involved there’s signals you should be able to discern
    0:08:07 around how the company is doing but again I like the sweet spot of kind of
    0:08:12 there’s product there’s some limited evidence of product market fit and but
    0:08:17 at the same time if I show up I’m still gonna get quote-unquote real significant
    0:08:20 equity but again this is a good problem and also you got to let the market
    0:08:24 decide you got to get the job first so your first objective is to get one
    0:08:28 ideally two offers so you can play them against each other but let me finish
    0:08:35 where I started with your background living in Toronto and a family just it’s
    0:08:40 just good to be Nicholas thanks for the question we have one quick break before
    0:08:43 our final question stay with us
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    0:09:58 March 8th to the 10th what a thrill we’ll be doing special live episodes of
    0:10:02 hit shows including pivot that’s right that dogs go into the great state of
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    0:10:20 by Southwest badge holders we hope to see you at the Austin Convention Center
    0:10:27 soon visit box media comm slash sxsw to learn more that’s box media comm slash
    0:10:41 sxsw welcome back question number three hi Scott my name is Sasha I’m a big fan
    0:10:45 of your podcast and I’m a sophomore in college in Boston and I find your career
    0:10:49 fascinating with that I need help understanding networking as a student
    0:10:52 interested in a career in consulting there’s a lot of pressure to quote-unquote
    0:10:56 network how can I do this authentically and I’m lucky to already have
    0:10:59 connections at MBV but what can I ask those connections to really do for me
    0:11:05 thank you for your wisdom and considering my question I think Sasha so
    0:11:13 say yes a lot a bit the business school and college are fantastic ways you get
    0:11:17 invited to all this crazy shit either you get to go see I remember I know this
    0:11:21 popped into my mind I went saw Don Valentine speak at an event at Hawes and
    0:11:25 UK as a student can go up to Don Valentine and say hi I’m Scott Galloway and I
    0:11:29 found out he ran this firm called Sequoia and I don’t think I’d leverage that
    0:11:32 content but I eventually ended up raising a lot of money from Sequoia but
    0:11:36 you can kind of call on anybody from a professional standpoint and they’ll meet
    0:11:40 with you have coffee with us when students call me and I’m not suggesting you do
    0:11:43 this and say I want to have coffee I’m much more inclined to have coffee with
    0:11:49 them than even at this point like a CEO of some company right now you just have
    0:11:53 currency to meet people and I would take advantage of that both professionally or
    0:11:57 kind of networking at these sort of corporate events but also a different
    0:12:01 type of networking is just to try to make as many friends as possible and have
    0:12:05 fun say yes go to football games with people or whatever it is they do at your
    0:12:10 college go out for a drink also and invest in relationships send people nice
    0:12:15 notes be happy to see them there’s this great study that looked at who are the
    0:12:18 most popular kids in high school and was it the athletes was it the best looking
    0:12:23 kids no you know what it was it was the kids who liked the most people not
    0:12:27 the kids who had the most people who like them but the easiest way to get
    0:12:30 someone like you is to like them the kids that were friendliness waved at other
    0:12:34 people in the hall were confident those kids were the most popular I thought that
    0:12:38 was so obvious but fascinating so what do you want to do you want to go to as
    0:12:42 many of these kind of networking events as is you know doesn’t get in the way
    0:12:46 your studies say yes to stuff with your friends be nice to people be friendly
    0:12:50 like as many people as you can and take advantage of the fact that people want
    0:12:54 to meet with you and you have access to all this incredible stuff and more than
    0:12:58 anything try not to be in your dorm room or your fraternity where you’re
    0:13:03 wherever you’re living more than eight or ten hours a day be out be out in the
    0:13:08 wild be out in the jungle meeting people running into unusual opportunities
    0:13:12 that’s what I worry about with most young men is there’s too many temptations
    0:13:16 to sit at home and believe you can have a reasonable facsimile of life with a
    0:13:19 computer and an algorithm no get out of the house go on campus go to these
    0:13:25 events another trick I do I did this whenever I walked into a room whether
    0:13:30 it was a networking event or a corporate event at business school or a bar I
    0:13:34 would I would demand that within ten seconds I’d lock eye contact with
    0:13:39 someone and I’d walk up and introduce myself I’d break the seal because it’s
    0:13:41 easy to sort of walk into a room and you don’t know anybody and you just kind of
    0:13:44 sit there and you look at your phone to pretend you’re doing something and
    0:13:48 before you know it you’re just sort of you know sequestered and you’re getting
    0:13:53 too used to not talking to people right away you roll into you roll into a
    0:13:57 situation you’re gonna go up to a group of people or to someone introduce
    0:14:02 yourself just break the seal right away anyway Sasha from Boston thanks for the
    0:14:07 question that’s all for this episode if you’d like to submit a question please
    0:14:11 email a voice recording to office hours of property media comm again that’s
    0:14:15 office hours of property media comm
    0:14:24 this episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez our intern is Dan Chalon
    0:14:27 Drew Burroughs is our technical director thank you for listening to the
    0:14:31 PropG pod from the box media podcast network we will catch you on Saturday
    0:14:36 for No Mercino Mouse as read by George Hahn and please follow our PropG
    0:14:40 markets pod wherever you get your pods for new episodes every Monday and
    0:14:42 Thursday
    0:14:52 [BLANK_AUDIO]

    Today, we’re kicking off a special two-part series all about careers—navigating them, advancing them, maybe even surviving them. 

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  • Raging Moderates: Trump Ditches Ukraine and Cozies Up to Putin

    AI transcript
    0:00:02 >> Support for this show comes from Indeed.
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    0:01:36 Rules and app.
    0:01:43 >> Welcome to Raging Moderates, I’m Scott Galloway.
    0:01:44 >> And I’m Jessica Tarlove.
    0:01:46 >> How much did you miss me?
    0:01:49 How much did you miss me?
    0:01:50 Is it tough?
    0:01:51 >> It was rough.
    0:01:54 Yeah, I was walking around like a lost puppy.
    0:01:56 All week, like, who do I talk to?
    0:01:56 >> Yeah.
    0:01:57 >> What do I do?
    0:01:58 How was your trip?
    0:01:59 >> My trip was great.
    0:02:01 I was in Zermatt.
    0:02:05 I’m basically now, if someone told me I could never ski again,
    0:02:07 I would say, well, how much will that cost me?
    0:02:11 All I can think about is the ACL I’m gonna tear, and it’s cold.
    0:02:14 And I don’t know, I’m skiing something, I think, anymore, but
    0:02:17 it’s a good way to trap my kids on a mountain.
    0:02:22 And it’s European skiing, it’s all about the lunch.
    0:02:25 And you go and you drink lunch and, yeah, it’s great.
    0:02:29 And I enjoy that, time with my boys.
    0:02:30 So it was wonderful, what did you do last week?
    0:02:32 >> I did my regular life.
    0:02:36 I had this crazy moment walking.
    0:02:38 I had the double stroller, I had both my girls with me.
    0:02:42 I was walking into the village to get some cookies, because all you’re
    0:02:44 looking for with young kids is an activity, right?
    0:02:45 Take them out of the house.
    0:02:47 I’m like, let’s go get cookies.
    0:02:50 And this young man, I saw, he was kind of checking me out.
    0:02:51 And I’m like, okay, that’s cool.
    0:02:52 You know, I still got it.
    0:02:54 And then he goes, hi, mom.
    0:02:56 And I was like, oh my God, what is happening now?
    0:02:59 Is my sexual identity become mom?
    0:03:02 And then he looks me dead in the eye and he goes, burp me.
    0:03:03 >> What? >> Yeah.
    0:03:05 Burp me, because I have kids, right?
    0:03:07 Like burp me, like you burp kids.
    0:03:08 >> Oh, like that was, that feels a little creepy.
    0:03:09 >> It’s so creepy.
    0:03:12 And then now I’m thinking, am I just a mom?
    0:03:15 Have I become only a vessel in life?
    0:03:19 And no one would want a cat call me about something distinct from my children.
    0:03:20 But I did have them with me.
    0:03:22 And also, he seems like a total pervert.
    0:03:24 Anyway, that was the highlight of my weekend.
    0:03:27 >> Yeah, I definitely, there’s something about,
    0:03:33 I’ve noticed that when women, after they have kids, like seven, eight years later,
    0:03:38 especially women who I think got a lot of confidence from their looks.
    0:03:41 When their kids get a little bit older and they realize they’ve spent ten years
    0:03:45 doing nothing or raising kids, everyone talks about dude’s midlife crisis.
    0:03:52 I have never seen midlife explosions across some of my partners and their friends.
    0:03:55 My God, they go crazy.
    0:03:57 So you got that to look forward to.
    0:03:59 I love how you brought that up and you kind of like that.
    0:04:02 You didn’t mind the pervy as long as it was a little bit.
    0:04:05 It sounds like you kind of didn’t like it, kind of did.
    0:04:07 >> It’s more interesting than watching Moana,
    0:04:10 which I also did a number of times this weekend.
    0:04:11 So you live for very little.
    0:04:13 You remember the baby face?
    0:04:15 >> I traveled a lot.
    0:04:16 I made a lot of excuses in left-town.
    0:04:17 >> I can’t, I’m the mom.
    0:04:19 >> Yeah, no, I was out.
    0:04:21 So along those lines of children,
    0:04:24 today we’re going to be talking about Trump turning on Ukraine,
    0:04:26 Trump’s honeymoon coming to an end,
    0:04:29 and Mitch McConnell’s retirement announcement and legacy.
    0:04:31 Let’s bust right into it, Jess.
    0:04:32 One month into his presidency,
    0:04:35 Trump is making a dramatic pivot toward Russia,
    0:04:38 upending decades of US foreign policy while
    0:04:41 previous Republican leaders championed a tough stance on Moscow.
    0:04:42 That was kind of their go-to.
    0:04:45 Today’s GOP is largely silent as Trump moves
    0:04:49 to cut support for Ukraine and cozy up to Putin.
    0:04:51 His administration has even floated
    0:04:53 excluding Ukraine from NATO,
    0:04:56 and he’s blaming Zelensky for a war Putin started.
    0:05:00 Meanwhile, a Quinnipiac poll shows that 81 percent of Americans,
    0:05:04 including 73 percent of Republicans, don’t trust Putin.
    0:05:06 So why is Trump ignoring them?
    0:05:10 Jess, Trump’s team is pushing for a peace deal on Putin’s terms,
    0:05:12 which European leaders say would weaken Ukraine.
    0:05:14 If this strategy backfires,
    0:05:17 what are the long-term consequences for US influence and alliances?
    0:05:22 Well, I feel like first we should talk about what’s going on in your away last week.
    0:05:26 So I’m sure you have a lot of pent-up thoughts about what seems like a-
    0:05:28 Oh, no, I’m calm. I’m fine. I’m just fine.
    0:05:31 As usual, super mellow about it.
    0:05:36 But, you know, the capitulation, the complete betrayal of Ukraine,
    0:05:41 it makes me feel as though every negative thing
    0:05:47 that we have thought over the last several years about Trump vis-a-vis Russia,
    0:05:50 you know, from anything, and I’m not going to say he’s a Russian asset,
    0:05:53 but obviously we started in that place from 2016.
    0:05:55 Then you have Helsinki in 2018,
    0:05:59 where he stood up there and sided with Putin over the intelligence agencies,
    0:06:02 who had all told us that Putin meddled in the election
    0:06:07 and had wanted Trump to win, that it’s all kind of coming to fruition.
    0:06:11 And Boris Johnson, the former prime minister of the UK,
    0:06:17 who’s a staunch ally of Ukraine, a friend of Zelensky, has been a number of times.
    0:06:23 He tried to soften this a bit, I guess, on X, and he posted,
    0:06:28 you know, “Obviously Zelensky is not a dictator. Obviously they didn’t provoke this.
    0:06:30 This is all Russia’s fault, etc.”
    0:06:34 But he said that he thought that Trump was trying to shock Europe
    0:06:39 into unfreezing the 300 billion that they have in Russian assets
    0:06:40 and to use that to support Ukraine.
    0:06:46 Now, that feels like he’s just grasping at straws at this point
    0:06:50 and that Trump isn’t playing 3D chess while we’re stuck playing checkers,
    0:06:56 but it is one of the more depressing moves,
    0:07:00 I guess, of the first five weeks of the Trump term.
    0:07:03 I feel very sad. What about you?
    0:07:11 I think that we take for granted that the number of people who have not died,
    0:07:15 or the number of people who’ve died at the hands of another human being,
    0:07:19 declined dramatically post-World War II order.
    0:07:24 That the number of children who died because of hunger or infectious disease
    0:07:33 has absolutely plummeted that the number of people who get to be with their dying partner
    0:07:34 because we embrace civil rights,
    0:07:40 that the opportunity for a black girl to become a lawyer or a doctor
    0:07:46 based on her merit without being held back based on her ethnicity,
    0:07:50 the color of her skin, her gender, her sexual orientation,
    0:07:54 that the post-World War II operating system in the West
    0:08:01 has been the most prosperous, decent, righteous era in history.
    0:08:07 And central to all of that was this post-World War II order
    0:08:11 where Western democracies would have each other’s back,
    0:08:13 that we had disagreements.
    0:08:20 But at the end of the day, we recognized that elections, rights, rule of law,
    0:08:25 a certain level of decency, not demonizing special interest groups,
    0:08:31 that we had been, we brought a group of people out of the darkness, Germany,
    0:08:35 and Allied turned our enemies into our allies by,
    0:08:41 in this extraordinary move of vision, the Marshall Plan invested in our former enemies,
    0:08:45 and we had this new world order of the most prosperous nations in the world
    0:08:47 who had each other’s back.
    0:08:50 And we took this operating system for granted.
    0:08:53 It was so incredible.
    0:08:57 It yielded such incredible fruit for so many people
    0:09:00 that we kind of took for granted that, well, of course, that’s a default operating system.
    0:09:02 Why would we do anything else?
    0:09:06 So when Trump decides to ignore history
    0:09:10 and give in to a murderous autocrat that is invading Europe,
    0:09:17 and lie to say things like Zelensky is a dictator or that Ukraine started this war,
    0:09:19 I think even the Russians are shocked at this shit.
    0:09:24 I think they’re like, “What? Yeah, how did this happen?”
    0:09:31 And he just can’t help but think, “Okay, so is this essentially Trump saying to Putin,
    0:09:34 “Let’s carve up the world. Let’s have spheres of influence.
    0:09:37 You have these rights to Antarctica or to the North Pole,
    0:09:42 not that all the ice is melting. You can have domain over these nations,
    0:09:46 whether it’s Ukraine or Turkey or Crimea, and you make your money.
    0:09:49 I’ll make mine. Europe, they’re fucking wimps.
    0:09:51 I’m sick of them. I’m sick of them lecturing in me, whatever.
    0:09:55 We’ll just carve up the world. And you get yours, I get mine.
    0:09:57 And we’re dictators and we’re autocrats,
    0:09:59 and we’re both going to make a shit ton of money.”
    0:10:03 Other than that, I can’t find reasoning for it.
    0:10:06 Is there a silver lining here? I think Europe is saying,
    0:10:10 “Okay, we can no longer depend on the U.S. and we can no longer depend on their
    0:10:13 umbrella of military support. That might be a healthy thing.
    0:10:15 Europe is substantially increasing their own military budget.”
    0:10:23 But this is an upending of the world order since World War II that has been the most prosperous.
    0:10:29 You know, the North Atlantic Treaty has been the most prosperous operating system in the history
    0:10:34 of our species. So this is, in my view, while everyone’s focused on all this
    0:10:41 bullshit and this misdirects of DEI or Andrew Tate or even Doge, I think, is a misdirect,
    0:10:44 this really is the story. This is the thing we should be focused on.
    0:10:50 And that is, do you really want to break up what has been the most successful alliance
    0:10:54 in history? Do we really want to have a reputation for abandoning our allies
    0:10:59 and saying, “Okay, history, history is wrong.
    0:11:02 When a murderous autocrat invades Europe, we shouldn’t be worried.”
    0:11:05 I think the answer is yes. And it’s been interesting to watch
    0:11:11 the number of folks that have gone to work for Trump, especially in the foreign policy world,
    0:11:15 like the Marco Rubio’s of the world, Mike Walts. So the folks that we initially were saying,
    0:11:19 “Well, at least these are the really good guys. We’re going to be fine on this front.”
    0:11:23 But as they’re talking and they’re supporting Steve Witkoff as well,
    0:11:30 doing interviews over the weekend, the special envoy, it’s like you can see their souls leaving
    0:11:38 their bodies as they’re discussing what the new plan is for the world. And it runs so counter
    0:11:45 to decades of experience, which some of them have fought for themselves as veterans, not just policy
    0:11:51 wonks sitting in D.C. or in their home states, talking about what the future should look like.
    0:11:56 People who actually put their lives on the line and are now going against that new world order.
    0:12:02 And Trump has had a “be in his bonnet” about Europe since he arrived on the scene. He stood up
    0:12:08 there and said, “If you’re not making your 2% contribution to NATO, you don’t deserve to be
    0:12:13 in this with us.” And people have started paying up, and some people even paying above the 2%
    0:12:17 for their own defense. And there’s some merit to that.
    0:12:25 And I think that we need to strive to look at the totality of the picture because there are
    0:12:30 decent arguments that are underpinning some of this. It’s just when you look at the complete
    0:12:37 product, you have to wonder if there is a completely nefarious motivation for getting us
    0:12:43 into this kind of position. And Europe is weaker than it used to be. The economies are stagnant.
    0:12:47 Like you said, if you want to get rich, build a business, etc., you do that in America. If you
    0:12:53 want to spend your money, you go to Europe because you can do apreski, and you can shop,
    0:12:57 and you can talk to interesting people from all over the world who are there to relax and to
    0:13:02 have fun. But they’re not innovating anywhere close to the way that we are. They’re not educating
    0:13:07 anywhere close to the way that we are. And I think that Trump and Co. are certainly cognizant of it.
    0:13:15 But you listen to the Germans had their elections yesterday. We meddled in their elections outright
    0:13:20 with Elon Musk and JD Vance, pushing forward the far-right AFD, which underperformed so the
    0:13:29 CDU wins. Can you believe that? It’s not easy to make Nazis less likeable, and we figured it out.
    0:13:36 We sent our A team over, and we were like, “Why don’t you hear JD Vance out on this? Why don’t
    0:13:43 you hear Elon Musk out on this?” But it should be noted, the CDU is the conservative party,
    0:13:48 and MERS, who’s the leader of it, will be the new chancellor, is much to the right of where
    0:13:54 Merkel was, especially on immigration. So this is a trend line that we are seeing across the world
    0:13:58 that people are not interested in open borders. They want to hear about a national identity.
    0:14:03 They want to hear about people doing it the right way, and they want to make sure that you
    0:14:11 don’t have this cultural hodgepodge that doesn’t jive with the way that they want their society
    0:14:18 to be. So that is part of this. But some of the quotes from MERS about the impact of the election
    0:14:24 and also thinking about the US as partners leave me almost despondent. We must prepare for the
    0:14:29 possibility that Donald Trump will no longer uphold NATO’s mutual defense commitment unconditionally.
    0:14:33 We also need to talk to the British and the French, the two European nuclear powers,
    0:14:38 about whether nuclear sharing or at least nuclear security from the UK and France could also apply
    0:14:46 to us. They are scared, and they are not looking to us for help. It’s smart of them to be thinking
    0:14:52 this way. So I’d love to hear what you think about that. But then also, I want to talk a little bit
    0:14:59 about Zelensky, the man, because he seems like a total hero in all of this. I was listening to
    0:15:06 his comments from the weekend. He was speaking in Kiev, and this is a guy with a 57% approval
    0:15:10 rating. We know in wartime people don’t have elections. He’s not a dictator. I am not saying
    0:15:14 that Ukraine doesn’t have corruption. Of course, there are oligarchs there. If there are oligarchs,
    0:15:18 there is going to be corruption. But the fact that he stood there and he said,
    0:15:26 “I’ll step down for peace. If you give us NATO, I’ll go.” It’s not about the personal ego in this,
    0:15:31 and it does harken back to a World War II time, where you saw people rise up
    0:15:35 and show their character in such a way, and that was very moving for me.
    0:15:42 I love this term. What could go right? And I wonder if, I see this and I was just horrified.
    0:15:47 I mean, first off, Senator Marco Rubio, who the fuck are you? But literally, and I’m going to
    0:15:51 mean that, it’s not like who are you to say these things, but I have no idea who this individual is.
    0:15:57 He was this cold warrior. That’s how his foreign policy stance was. He was a cold warrior,
    0:16:07 and now he’s signing up to the notion that Ukraine started the war. That would be like FDR
    0:16:12 saying, “Well, what would those ships doing in Pearl Harbor anyways? The Japanese, I can see
    0:16:20 why they attacked us.” It’s just insane that we would be surrendering. That we would say, “Okay,
    0:16:26 that’s it. We surrender.” And I wonder, I’m trying to see the silver lining here,
    0:16:33 I think Europe is more impressive than people give them credit for. Dassault makes incredible
    0:16:41 jet airplanes. The German Tiger tanks and the manufacturing capability there is incredible.
    0:16:47 The economies of Italy and France are still relatively big economies. The UK has some
    0:16:54 of the best universities in the world. Europe, this is a wake up call. Get your shit together and
    0:17:00 unify and put aside your petty stupid fucking differences because this is an existential threat
    0:17:07 because you no longer have a sane and quite frankly decent ally that I don’t want to say you
    0:17:11 shouldn’t have, I’m not saying you took them for granted, but quite frankly, they realize now
    0:17:18 a big brother’s not going to save us here. We have to develop our own unified approach to an
    0:17:23 economy, our own unified approach to a war machine. And I think it might actually be very
    0:17:30 unifying. In addition, going out of war footing sometimes or preparing for a war footing can
    0:17:34 actually be good for an economy. People are disappointed that the Russian economy hasn’t
    0:17:40 sunk as fast as some people thought because actually a war footing helps juice an economy,
    0:17:46 at least in the short term. This bullshit that the Ukrainian, the war in Ukraine has somehow
    0:17:52 been bad for the US economy. Yeah, it’s sort of expensive, 60, 65 billion a year. Okay, fine.
    0:17:58 Military budget is 800 billion. By the way, about 95% of that has gone back to US military suppliers
    0:18:04 and has juiced the economy in red states. I wonder if it might actually bring unity to Europe,
    0:18:10 which is that Europe might actually be a union again, that the Brits realize they have more
    0:18:14 in touch or more in common with the continent than they thought and maybe do something like
    0:18:18 a back sit move where they become more integrated again with the EU. They increase their military
    0:18:25 spending and they put up a front that says, okay, we’ve got this. I think this is an opportunity
    0:18:31 for leadership in Europe to say, Ukraine and Germany has said this, we’ve got your back.
    0:18:37 We recognize that this is a huge loss, but be clear, you don’t need to surrender and fold
    0:18:42 right away. The other silver lining is, I don’t know if you’ve seen any of these Republican town
    0:18:50 halls, but there are enough people who have grandparents who fought in the war, who remember
    0:18:57 how terrible Russia has been in terms of our own interests and hate the idea that America
    0:19:04 is surrendering to Putin, that we are surrendering to a gas station posing as an economy who has
    0:19:09 only taken seriously because it has so many nuclear weapons. I think the majority of Americans,
    0:19:15 as evidenced by that data, think, wow, this is just too much. I am not down. I don’t understand
    0:19:20 why we are surrendering. It makes no sense. It is not good for the world. Even the far right is
    0:19:26 having trouble. Tucker Carlson goes and gives Putin a lap dance and can’t get over those amazing
    0:19:32 shopping carts at their grocery store. Folks, I have been to Russia. We are not going to have
    0:19:38 an outflow of American citizens going to Russia. You can be sure of that. It is not a great place.
    0:19:44 They have nothing on us, folks. Nothing. This is not a society, an economy, or a leadership
    0:19:49 to look up to. I wonder if the silver lining here is that Europe becomes a union again.
    0:19:55 NATO hopefully comes back stronger, because I think it will take some time, even if the Americans
    0:20:00 are trying to unwind it. I don’t think they are going to be able to. Europe puts forward a more
    0:20:06 unified front against, and they have been doing it. They have been spending more than us, but
    0:20:12 I hope this is the wake-up call. I was thinking about this Blitzkrieg of information to try
    0:20:19 and confuse everybody. DEI, DOGE, I read this morning they are trying to partner, bring back
    0:20:24 Andrew Tate. It is all a fucking sideshow to get you to look away from the fact that they are trying
    0:20:30 to recalibrate the world order. This is unacceptable, and I think it is unacceptable to most Americans.
    0:20:38 I hope these people who do not want to be surrender monkeys show up at the ballot box
    0:20:46 in about 22 months and send their congressman a message, “We are not down with this.” You need
    0:20:52 to speak up and say, “This is not right.” I am trying to think of what could go right.
    0:21:00 Well, let me put something out there, which is all of that is true as someone who lived in London
    0:21:05 for a long time and was over there when Brexit was happening. I hope they backs it. I had not heard
    0:21:11 that term. You know, they had buyers remorse about 20 minutes after the decision came down,
    0:21:19 and they were fed a lot of propaganda to make them make that choice. Thank you, Nigel Farage.
    0:21:27 But a stronger Europe and a less dependent Europe is, to some degree, Donald Trump fulfilling
    0:21:34 one of his promises, which is to get us out of the global order in the way that we have been,
    0:21:41 and his voters overwhelmingly don’t think that we have a responsibility to help Ukraine.
    0:21:48 He is actually being responsive to his own voters in saying that, and this has been going on
    0:21:52 for the last year or two. I think people were really jazzed about the conflict in the beginning
    0:21:58 where Ukraine was pulling off these incredible defeats and they seemed like they were going to
    0:22:05 win, and something changed. You know, Russia was not falling apart in the way that they expected.
    0:22:11 Donald Trump and Co were obviously amplifying that. But it brings up this larger question. If
    0:22:17 the people who sent you to Washington feel a certain way about something, is it your duty to
    0:22:23 then behave in such a way or make decisions that are aligned with that, or do you go with
    0:22:28 what’s actually the right thing to do in a historical sense?
    0:22:32 How do you think that manifests? If you were to guess on the ground,
    0:22:36 how do you think that shows up in today’s electoral politics? What do you think happened?
    0:22:45 Well, I just know. I was looking at the data on what Republicans support for us continuing to
    0:22:51 support Ukraine is, and only 36% say that we should keep doing that. Nearly half say
    0:22:56 that we’re giving too much aid to Ukraine. And a lot of people, and not just Republicans,
    0:23:02 have bought into the idea that we need help at home. We need that money to be spent on us,
    0:23:06 rather than to be spent on a conflict abroad that, frankly, Democrats and Republicans have not
    0:23:11 effectively contextualized in the life of the average American. So you could say, yeah,
    0:23:16 there are tons of people showing up at town halls who have World War II vets in their families,
    0:23:21 but they’re probably outliers from the average person that walked down the street and
    0:23:26 passed, right? And says, okay, well, we’re going to send another $60 billion or whatever it is.
    0:23:31 We’re going to send long range missiles over there. And they’re saying, I can’t put food on the
    0:23:37 table here. Yeah, this is a messaging issue in my view, because one, okay, it’s $65 billion.
    0:23:45 And what we’ve failed to do is show that the majority of this capital, vast majority of it,
    0:23:52 ends up back in the U.S. economy, back in red states. And the way I would position it is,
    0:23:58 it’s a stimulus program to help manufacturing in the U.S. help create jobs. And that if,
    0:24:02 regardless of what you think of Ukraine, if we stop doing this, it’s going to result in a dramatic
    0:24:11 reduction in money and jobs and prosperity across mostly red states. That this is no different
    0:24:16 than, okay, when we send grain abroad for food aid, if you stopped doing that, it would hurt
    0:24:22 farmers in Iowa. And just to contextualize it, it’s $62 billion. And what have we gotten?
    0:24:28 Let’s put the moral arguments aside, because the moral argument is why do we give a shit about
    0:24:34 trench warfare in Ukraine when my son can’t find a job or I can’t afford my diabetes medication?
    0:24:39 I think that’s a fair argument. Okay, let’s just look at it from an economic standpoint
    0:24:46 for approximately 1% of our spending. We spend $7 trillion, so less than that.
    0:24:51 The majority of which comes back to red states, comes back to U.S. manufacturing.
    0:24:56 We get to take out a third, or so far, taking out a third of Russia’s kinetic power. We’ve
    0:25:02 destroyed a third of their tanks. We have put their economy on its heels to a certain extent.
    0:25:06 We have defanged what was supposed to be one of the most ferocious armies in the world.
    0:25:11 We have reduced the likelihood of terrorism against Western allies and terrorism domestically,
    0:25:16 because a lot of their proxies who they were supporting have been castrated. They do not
    0:25:21 have the bandwidth to wreak havoc, which they have done since the end of World War II across
    0:25:26 different satellite countries, because they are bogged down in a war. And it shows that essentially
    0:25:33 our enemy can be pushed back when the West gets attacked together and unifies without, by the way,
    0:25:41 without a single American boot on the ground. A manager’s charge at the end of the day is to
    0:25:46 allocate capital to its greatest return, to a greater return than your peer group. The president
    0:25:52 is the greatest allocator of capital in history, thereby the greatest manager in history. The
    0:25:59 best ROI, the best example of great management over the last 10, 20, 30 years, is the $60
    0:26:06 billion stimulus program in the US that has resulted in the defanging, the pushback of an enemy
    0:26:16 at very little cost to us. And that cost comes back to us in the form of jobs in the US. This is
    0:26:24 distinct to the moral argument. This is a great deal for us. It is a great deal. Would you rather
    0:26:30 have Russia with this superior fighting force that the whole world is scared of, or to have a
    0:26:35 third of its army taken out, to have a ton of its soldiers, and I hate to say this, killed,
    0:26:41 to have China thinking twice about invading Taiwan, saying what a small motivated army can do that’s
    0:26:48 technically literate and backed by the West. The West is a much safer place with the pushback
    0:26:57 that the incredible Ukrainian army has provided at very little cost to us. This is chump change.
    0:27:01 This is just not a lot of money when you think about the fact that it ends up back in our economy.
    0:27:07 It’s not as if this is not the problem, folks. Social security is going to be $1.3 trillion
    0:27:13 this year. This is $60 billion. Elon Musk has made $210 billion since the election. This is $60
    0:27:19 billion to make the world a much safer place with a strong message. When the West comes together,
    0:27:23 is it an insurmountable fighting force and could push back on a murderous autocrat? This is about
    0:27:28 messaging. Do away with the moral arguments. I think those will be made on their own, but just say,
    0:27:33 this is a great investment. We’d be stupid not to continue making this investment.
    0:27:41 I wish someone in a position of electoral power had articulated it that way, because I don’t think
    0:27:48 that anyone thinks that they have a job or are making more money or that even they are safer
    0:27:53 at home, which is what they care about versus lots of people who are abroad because we’ve been
    0:27:58 involved in this conflict. They thought that it would end in a year, two years. Now we’re at the
    0:28:04 third anniversary of this. Yes, there have been tons of accomplishments in terms of what the
    0:28:10 Ukrainians have pulled off, but Russia is not going away. Basically, everyone admits that there
    0:28:18 have to be some sort of concessions. Even Zelensky has talked about that, maybe not going back to
    0:28:24 a few years ago, but we’re certainly not getting back to the pre-2014 lines by any stretch of the
    0:28:31 imagination. Nobody is making that case to an American public that at this moment cares first
    0:28:35 and foremost about what is happening at home, not just in terms of it being the United States,
    0:28:39 but in their actual home. We do. All right, let’s take a quick break. Stay with us.
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    0:31:27 Welcome back. We’re just one month into Trump’s second term, although it feels like an eternity.
    0:31:31 Trump’s approval is sinking, see above, silver lining, with polls showing him
    0:31:38 underwater and his aggressive budget cuts aren’t helping. Doge is slashing jobs at the TSA, FEMA,
    0:31:42 and even the NIH unit researching Alzheimer’s. Meanwhile, Speaker Mike Johnson is cheering on
    0:31:47 Musk’s crusade to shrink the government, but he’s also throwing cold water on Musk and Trump’s idea
    0:31:53 to send Americans $5,000 rebate checks with the supposed government savings. Some Republicans
    0:31:57 say it’s unconstitutional, others call it a political stunt, and budget experts warn it would
    0:32:02 need congressional approval if the savings even exist. But Trump and Musk are plowing ahead,
    0:32:08 promising that doge dividend will put money in voters’ pockets. Yes, the rebate idea is already
    0:32:14 causing a split within the GOP with Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski calling parts of doge unconstitutional
    0:32:19 and disastrous. Could this be the breaking point where Republicans finally push back on Trump?
    0:32:25 I feel like I’m old enough to think that there is never a breaking point with Republicans.
    0:32:31 There are little spurts of pushback or where you think someone still has their soul or their moral
    0:32:37 compass, but then generally they get in line, and I think the confirmation process has really
    0:32:43 elucidated at that. This is Trump’s party, this is Trump’s administration, and they will do things
    0:32:50 Trump’s way. So I’m not waiting for any Republican to save us from this. It does seem like the
    0:32:56 American public, though, may be the ones to do it, and I’ve been surprised by how quickly
    0:33:08 Trump’s image and approval rating has softened or decreased or gotten shittier in people’s eyes.
    0:33:13 There are a few polls that show that his approval hasn’t sunk. I should note that, but in general,
    0:33:18 the trend line is going in the negative direction, and these are all high-quality polls like Gallup,
    0:33:25 Quinnipiac, Reuters, Ipsos, CNN. The thing that I think is most important in all of this, and it
    0:33:31 comes from a Gallup poll, is that only 20% think that the economy is excellent or good, and 59%
    0:33:38 think that the economy is getting worse. So people wanted a pocketbook reversal in making
    0:33:43 their choice in electing Donald Trump on November 5th. They don’t feel like they are getting it
    0:33:49 from him, and you’re seeing that reflected in the market, and people are well aware. I think tariffs
    0:33:56 are the second most least popular thing that he’s done. Number one was pardoning all the January
    0:34:03 Sixers, and folks know what the tariffs are going to do to the American economy. I also saw that
    0:34:08 the Democrats are now up double digits on the generic ballot. Think how quickly that changed,
    0:34:14 that we just lost an election, and the Republicans only have a slim majority in the House, but still,
    0:34:19 they won, right? They’re in control, all three, right? They have the White House, Senate, and House,
    0:34:22 and now Democrats are up double digits on a generic ballot.
    0:34:27 Yeah, with respect to Doge, again, I think, I mean, it sort of goes to, okay, what to do.
    0:34:33 A common psychological warfare technique is to overwhelm the opposition with so many different
    0:34:38 outrageous things, and so many different aggressive topics, issues, inbound missiles,
    0:34:42 that you’re overwhelmed and become flat-footed. I suffer from this. I don’t even know where to
    0:34:48 start. And the way you respond is the following, is, okay, you don’t need to respond to everything
    0:34:53 online. You don’t need to take up everything with emotion and anger. You should cite experts.
    0:34:59 You should bring in data, and then pare down what you’re going to focus on in terms of your
    0:35:05 pushback. So, for example, I think Doge is a giant fucking weapon of mass distraction.
    0:35:12 $50 billion, fine. They want to try and right-size government. People are understandably concerned
    0:35:17 that there’s a lot of waste. Government needs to be right-sized. I think the wrong messaging is
    0:35:25 all this “injustice.” I get these national forestry. People are wonderful, and that there’s
    0:35:30 going to be diapers on the side of your favorite trail, and that they got an email, and they’ve
    0:35:33 been fired after 18 years of service. But I think a lot of Americans say, “Welcome to the
    0:35:38 fucking work week. This happened to me, or it happened to my cousin. Private equity came in
    0:35:42 and bought out our chiropractic clinic, and we got our phone shut off.” I think what is happening
    0:35:46 to a lot of these workers has happened to a lot of people in the private sector, and to be blunt,
    0:35:51 there isn’t a groundswell of sympathy or empathy they were hoping for, and people think the government
    0:35:58 needs to be reined back in as it has been on a regular basis, including under Clinton and Gore.
    0:36:04 Now, having said that, what I would focus on is the incompetence. I would focus on the fact that,
    0:36:09 okay, they didn’t save $8 billion here. They saved $8 million. Oh, they fired the nuclear,
    0:36:15 the people overseeing our nuclear stockpile, only to rehire them, which makes it more expensive. Oh,
    0:36:20 you can be clear that the people regulating Tesla’s self-autonomous driving unit,
    0:36:26 they’ve all been fired, right? That this is essentially corruption and incompetence
    0:36:32 at very little money. And the thing they should link this to is, okay, while they’re off here
    0:36:38 playing Keystone cops and playing incompetence, you know, incompetence girls gone wild here,
    0:36:46 they want you to look over here at $50 billion in savings. Okay. They’re planning with the
    0:36:52 tax cuts that will benefit me. I ran, I looked at the new tax proposal and I ran my W2 through it.
    0:36:57 I’m going to save $1 million a year with Trump’s tax cuts, right? Fine. Government’s too big.
    0:37:05 Save us that $50 billion. But be clear, you’re not fooling anybody. You’re planning to increase
    0:37:10 taxes on future generations by the biggest tax increase in history. It’s $900 billion a year.
    0:37:17 Let’s just come together and agree on somewhere between 12 and 18 times the amount of the $50
    0:37:23 billion we’re arguing over in terms of Doge. That while everyone is obsessed with Doge,
    0:37:26 because it makes for a good TikTok and people know people in the government,
    0:37:32 the real story here is somewhere between six and $900 billion a year increase in taxes on
    0:37:37 future generations. I think that’s what we should be focused on. I agree with you and I would add
    0:37:41 to it that there have been several analyses of what Doge has actually caught it, including from
    0:37:46 the conservative Wall Street Journal. So while Musk is out there saying we found $55 billion in cuts,
    0:37:53 they say it’s $2.6 billion actually and over a multi-year period, only 2% are related to quote,
    0:37:58 unquote, “DEI efforts.” And the rest of it is just stuff that like maybe he doesn’t want to do,
    0:38:06 like develop a drug to help cure Alzheimer’s, for instance. But they’re doing this thing where,
    0:38:12 because they’re controlling the conversation on social media, that they’re shitposting at such a
    0:38:17 rapid rate that you can’t figure out what’s true and what’s not true. And they’re essentially
    0:38:23 telling people that contracts or bits of information about how the federal government are doing things
    0:38:27 that they’ve unearthed it when it’s all publicly available information. But guess what? To your
    0:38:32 point, you need subject matter experts, people who actually deal in this data all the time,
    0:38:36 to comb through it and to tell you, no, actually, this is publicly available on X site, right?
    0:38:42 Or you go here and that’s where you would know about that contract, for instance. And so the
    0:38:47 flooding the zone has been wildly effective, I think, in terms of controlling the discourse,
    0:38:51 but they have not been able to control the American people when it comes to this,
    0:38:57 because the people two to one ratio don’t approve of Musk’s outsize role in the government or what
    0:39:03 Doge is doing. And in these town halls, which you’ve cited, which are happening in Republican
    0:39:09 districts, everyone who’s a swing district Republican down to people in very safe seats,
    0:39:14 these constituents are showing up and they’re not only talking about Doge to the brass tacks
    0:39:20 stuff that you’re discussing, they are losing their minds over this $880 billion cut to Medicaid.
    0:39:25 They didn’t think that this was going to have practical implications for them because guess
    0:39:30 what? It’s not popular to sit around and say, oh, I love the federal government so much, right?
    0:39:35 And don’t touch a single, you know, hair on the head of anyone who works at USAID. And then that’s
    0:39:42 something that feels so foreign and detached from the average American’s daily life. But what isn’t
    0:39:49 detached from it is Medicaid, Head Start, the 9/11 Health Initiative. I mean, 9/11 was one of the more
    0:39:55 unifying moments in American history, right? No matter where you lived in this country,
    0:40:02 no matter how you voted, you were horrified that we had a terrorist attack on American soil that
    0:40:09 we lost 3500 American lives and millions since then in terms of the repercussions with the air
    0:40:14 quality and the cancers that people developed from that. My dad died of a 9/11 cancer, you know,
    0:40:21 we’re part of that 9/11 Health Initiative world because of the implications. And when they go
    0:40:28 after something like that, when you live in rural Iowa, you say, excuse me, how is it possible that
    0:40:32 that’s on the chopping block? And John Stuart has always been such an effective messenger on this
    0:40:38 subject because he’ll show up in Congress to say, you’re going after absolutely the wrong things.
    0:40:43 You have something that has what, a 90% approval rating, let’s say, the folks that went down there
    0:40:49 and cleaned up after that terrorist attack or have worked in the support system, the family members
    0:40:55 of the heroes that died that day. And that’s who you want to be coming out after. Like, we heard
    0:41:02 all of these fantasies about $50 million for condoms for people in Gaza or, you know, supporting
    0:41:07 the arts for transgender people in Liberia or whatever lies they were telling us. And they’re
    0:41:13 just not being borne out by the data. And people are getting that message. And Democrats really
    0:41:18 have to stick to the script on this. There is a budget that will be being brought to the floor.
    0:41:22 It’s going through the rules committee today. So when this is released tomorrow, Tuesday,
    0:41:26 it’s supposed to be coming there. And Republicans are going to have to vote on it. And it has an
    0:41:34 $880 billion cut to Medicaid in it. And there are conservative lawmakers that are begging
    0:41:41 leadership to take it out. Josh Hawley, someone who I really have, I don’t think ever had anything
    0:41:46 nice to say about, wants to add an amendment to it on the Senate side to make sure that
    0:41:51 these cuts can’t go through because they understand that it will decimate the lives
    0:41:59 of their constituents. So there is plenty in here to be going after. But I think it is important
    0:42:04 to say time and time again that what Elon Musk is telling you they are doing, they are not.
    0:42:10 He is saying $55 billion. It is at most $2.6 billion. Yeah, like Medicaid,
    0:42:16 80 million people, one in six households or one in six kids, 40% of births,
    0:42:26 the elderly who are disabled. And also, it is actually a really well-run cost-effective program.
    0:42:31 It provides health coverage for low-income Americans at a lower per-person cost than
    0:42:36 private insurance. So Medicaid actually helps the economy because unless you are going to
    0:42:43 decide you are going to let people die of their cystic fibrosis or you are going to let old people,
    0:42:51 the disabled, wither away, what is the most cost-effective way to give people some
    0:42:58 dignity to make sure that kids can’t actually, we can provide their medication,
    0:43:06 we can provide their in-home physical therapy for the disabled. Well, this is a lower cost way
    0:43:14 to do it. And it is very popular. And the fact that they are, hey, look over here at $50 billion
    0:43:20 in doge savings and we will give you a $5,000 check, but we are going to cut what, $600 to $800
    0:43:26 billion from Medicaid? I mean, this really is, in my opinion, showing their true colors.
    0:43:31 And that is at the end of the day, the most remarkable thing about the Republican Party
    0:43:39 is that it serves not the 1%, it serves the 0.1%. And the fact this is all a giant
    0:43:46 ruse to say, look over here while we cut taxes on the very wealthiest Americans. And I do think
    0:43:51 this is probably a bridge too far. I think they will probably check back on Medicaid. I hope they
    0:43:58 don’t because I think this could probably be the beginning of a pretty serious clean sweep or,
    0:44:04 you know, close to a clean sweep once we have the midterm elections. But Medicaid is, I would say,
    0:44:09 with maybe the exception of Social Security is the most popular social program in America,
    0:44:15 maybe even more popular when you look at its effectiveness. But this is great messaging
    0:44:20 for the Democrats that, okay, do you know anyone on Medicaid? This is who they’re coming for.
    0:44:26 And if you think, if they can cut 16 times what they say they’re going to cut in doves,
    0:44:30 that’s what they’re planning to cut from Medicaid. It’s not like that. It’s like, at some point,
    0:44:36 is somebody, and we need to be a Republican, going to give them a, do you have no sense
    0:44:42 of decency speech? Right? At some point, somebody needs to stand up. And I think someone is going
    0:44:48 to find their backbone here. The budget proposed just endorsed cuts to Medicaid by $900 billion.
    0:44:55 This is just, this is extraordinary. I want to talk about the rebate checks for a second though,
    0:45:02 because this has over the last few years actually been a really important point in terms of our
    0:45:07 electoral outcomes. Because we did checks at the beginning of COVID because of the CARES Act,
    0:45:12 which Republicans opposed, Donald Trump opposed, but it was passed and it went through while Trump
    0:45:16 was still president. And he signed those checks himself, right? It’s a Donald J. Trump gave you
    0:45:22 money. And then we did a couple more rounds of checks during the Biden administration. But of
    0:45:27 course, Joe Biden didn’t want to put his name on those checks. So they had a career treasury
    0:45:31 officials name on it. And when people went and voted, they didn’t know that Joe Biden ever
    0:45:37 gave them money, right? It was that Donald Trump gave me money. And then I had a really crappy four
    0:45:42 years and now Donald Trump is going to come back. And these rebate checks, which if you look at the
    0:45:48 money, it obviously doesn’t add up because those shavings are a fantasy in all of this. But if people
    0:45:55 receive a $5,000 check that says Donald J. Trump on it, that will be meaningful. And we need to be
    0:45:59 very careful around this. Now, I don’t know if that’s going to go through that seems like a
    0:46:06 muskism versus something that might actually happen on the federal level. But I’m concerned
    0:46:11 about that because those are the types of tangibles that people remember when they go and vote.
    0:46:17 And they will also provide further smoke to this smoke screen that’s going on and what’s
    0:46:21 actually happening in the federal government versus the reality on the ground.
    0:46:25 It’s just so insane. And I think the messaging so far has been
    0:46:32 pretty good around this. But the notion that, okay, we’re a household that makes $50,000 a year.
    0:46:36 That’s our tax receipts. We spend $70,000. That’s our government expenditures,
    0:46:42 $7 trillion on five trillion tax receipts. And we are $350,000 or $35 trillion in debt.
    0:46:52 But we’re going to cut our expenditures by $500 and send a check to people rather than
    0:46:57 paying down our debt. I mean, it’s just, does anyone do math anymore? Have citizens gotten to
    0:47:02 the point where it’s like, I just give it up. My kids are fucked. Just run up their credit card.
    0:47:05 I don’t care. I do think there’s going to be enough people who are going to go on
    0:47:11 social and say, this is just stupid to start sending checks when we’re planning to run up the
    0:47:17 deficit another $900 billion a year to send checks to people for $5,000 rather than paying
    0:47:23 down the debt. It, you know, that absolutely, again, to your point, that just makes no sense.
    0:47:25 All right. One more quick break. Stay with us.
    0:47:33 We’re taking Vox Media Podcast on the road and heading back to Austin for the South by
    0:47:39 Southwest Festival March 8th through the 10th. What a thrill. Chicken fajitas, queso, strawberry
    0:47:44 margarita, extra chateau tequila. There you’ll be able to see special live episodes of hit shows
    0:47:49 including our show Pivot. Where should we begin with Esther Perrell? A touch more with Sue Bird
    0:47:56 and Megan Rapinoe. Not just football with Cam Hayward and more presented by Smartsheet.
    0:48:01 The Vox Media Podcast stage at South by Southwest is open to all South by Southwest
    0:48:06 badge holders. We hope to see you at the Austin Convention Center soon. I’m not joking. I love
    0:48:11 South by Southwest. The people are a ton of fun. It’s a great time. If you do come, come up and
    0:48:20 say hi. Visit voxmedia.com/sxsw to learn more. That’s voxmedia.com/sxsw.
    0:48:29 We’re taking Vox Media Podcast on the road and heading back to Austin for the South by Southwest
    0:48:35 Festival March 8th through the 10th. What a thrill. We’ll be doing special live episodes of hit shows
    0:48:41 including Pivot. That’s right. The dog’s going to the great state of Texas. Where should we begin
    0:48:48 with Esther Perrell? A touch more with Sue Bird and Megan Rapinoe. Not just football with Cam Hayward
    0:48:53 and more presented by Smartsheet. The Vox Media Podcast stage at South by Southwest is open to
    0:48:58 all South by Southwest badge holders. We hope to see you at the Austin Convention Center soon.
    0:49:07 Visit voxmedia.com/sxsw to learn more. That’s voxmedia.com/sxsw.
    0:49:20 We talk about it in whispers. Hey, my name. I’m not going to say it. I would like to remain
    0:49:26 anonymous if any of this is being used. Hi, I would like to say anonymous and my parents did
    0:49:36 recently buy me a house. We inquire about it gently. How can you afford this neighborhood
    0:49:43 or that school? My dad used to pay off my credit card every month up until recently. My parents did
    0:49:48 take my rent. They paid for some of my credit card bills, kind of my like emergency money,
    0:49:54 groceries as well. I am in my mid-20s. I received about 1.3 million dollars over the course of 14
    0:50:01 years. Trillions of dollars are flowing from baby boomers to their adult kids and upending
    0:50:06 American norms and housing prices. We’re talking through it on Today Explained every weekday,
    0:50:15 wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back. Before we wrap, last week, Senator Mitch McConnell
    0:50:19 announced he won’t seek reelection in 2026, marking the end of a four-decade career that reshaped
    0:50:25 American politics. As Senate GOP leader, he cemented a conservative judiciary, steered his party
    0:50:30 through shifting ideological tides and clashed with Donald Trump in recent years. His exit raises
    0:50:34 questions about the future of the GOP and the battle for his Kentucky seat with former Attorney
    0:50:40 General Daniel Cameron and rep Andy Barr already in the race. Jess, what do you think McConnell’s
    0:50:46 legacy will be? The obvious one is the reshaping of the courts. Biden did really well and had an
    0:50:51 almost breakneck pace in terms of judicial confirmations. It doesn’t compare to the damage
    0:50:56 that McConnell has done with the Supreme Court being the cherry on top of all of this and
    0:51:03 his ruthlessness and refusing to give Merrick Garland a hearing will be remembered throughout
    0:51:08 history. That was the beginning of this. But he slowed down judicial confirmations during the
    0:51:17 Obama era to a trickle at best and took advantage of Harry Reid blowing up the filibuster in 2013.
    0:51:24 We ended up in this position where the courts are stacked against us, I say us as Democrats are
    0:51:31 left-leaning people, for generations to come. I think that’s probably the biggest one. I think
    0:51:39 there’s an image that folks saw last week, which will also stick with us. This doesn’t just apply
    0:51:45 to McConnell, but this crop of 80-something legislators, 70-something legislators. It’s
    0:51:51 McConnell and Jim Justice, who’s the new senator from West Virginia, was the governor and they’re
    0:51:58 both in wheelchairs and they’re passing each other and they’re high-fiving. I understand
    0:52:04 people have accidents and McConnell had fallen. Justice has had trouble walking for a very long
    0:52:13 time. But you look at this and you think we have to be able to do better, not in an ageist way.
    0:52:20 I hate to think of myself as someone who is ageist, but it doesn’t feel right that the folks that have
    0:52:27 these rarefied jobs are only a hundred of them, right? In a country of 330 million that we have
    0:52:34 people who are that old, who are refusing at that level to pass the torch. And yes, I know McConnell
    0:52:39 is retiring, but it’s a problem across the board that we’ve really got to address.
    0:52:47 So I’m a full-blown ageist and you know who else is ageist? Biology. My son had a Halloween party,
    0:52:52 he was 14. There were 15-year-old girls in my house that are more qualified to be senator than
    0:52:56 Senator Feinstein was in the last year of her senate. They would have done a much better job.
    0:53:02 They would have had a much broader grasp and understanding of the issues than Senator Feinstein
    0:53:08 did. Put these people on a fucking ice flow. Enough already. You have to be 30 years of age
    0:53:13 to become a senator. Why? Because a 29-year-old, they believe does not have the experience,
    0:53:16 the maturity, or the cognitive ability to make decisions on behalf of a country. But someone
    0:53:21 who doesn’t know where the fuck they are and freezes on a on a stage when asking questions.
    0:53:28 Someone who literally, there is a, I believe it’s a Republican female representative who
    0:53:31 literally doesn’t know where she is. It’s tragic. She’s suffering from late-stage Alzheimer.
    0:53:40 Biology says hold my beer when mostly Democrats talk about scream ageism. And because we have a
    0:53:45 system with Citizens United where the incumbent almost always wins, and these people must get
    0:53:50 great reservations at great restaurants in D.C. And they decided to never leave. We need age limits
    0:53:56 for both the Supreme Court and for our elected representatives. Enough already. I mean,
    0:54:04 make it something low like 80 or something like that. But at some point, it is time to go. His
    0:54:10 legacy will be the following, in my view. Showing to the world just how much Senator Schumer sucks.
    0:54:20 And that is this guy, call him McEvellian, call him evil. He outplayed Democrats every step of
    0:54:25 the way. Well, our leadership decided to send a strongly worded letter around all these outrage
    0:54:33 around, around Merrick Garland. He always won. He, he managed to pack the courts up and down.
    0:54:41 And when a 14-year-old girl has to carry a child from incest to term, when a woman is
    0:54:46 bleeding out in an emergency room parking lot from sepsis because a doctor is worried about
    0:54:54 going to jail, it is because our leadership were fucking neutered and didn’t want to go gangster
    0:55:01 the way McConnell did. McConnell was shameless. He is the graveyard digger for democracy and he was
    0:55:08 highly effective. We need more Democrats like that. I want to see the same sort of shamelessness
    0:55:13 that Speaker Emerita Pelosi brings to her fucking corrupt insider trading.
    0:55:19 I want to see some of that gangster corruption, that some of that gangster backbone, some of that,
    0:55:26 some of those big fucking balls to negotiations with Republicans. His legacy, maybe he was right,
    0:55:31 maybe he wasn’t, but he sure as hell was effective. And this is the problem that the Democrats suffer
    0:55:35 from. And what I have suffered from my entire career is they cannot discern the difference
    0:55:43 between being right and being effective. He was much more effective than Democratic leadership.
    0:55:49 Yeah. Can we disparage him and say that he was evil and that he did the wrong thing? Yeah,
    0:55:54 hold my beer, bitches. He outplayed us days one, two, and three.
    0:56:02 I totally agree. I love how he was even embracing of the kind of pop culture
    0:56:08 characterizations of him, like cocaine Mitch or the Grim Reaper. He leaned into all of that,
    0:56:16 or at least a staffer did for him and embraced that role. We need to be more cutthroat in the
    0:56:23 way that we do politics. But he also is very much representative of the type of Washington
    0:56:29 that led us to having Donald Trump. People will spend generations talking about how did
    0:56:34 we end up with Trump? And they’ll talk about what went on in the Obama era and this latent
    0:56:39 racism that spilled out, right? And then people started voting for Trump, et cetera.
    0:56:45 But people like Mitch McConnell, who are Washington creatures, who have been there forever,
    0:56:51 who folks didn’t feel like they were responsive to trends in American society,
    0:56:56 to how they were feeling about their lives, to how they were feeling about foreign entanglements.
    0:57:06 He was a poster child for that. And we would not have had Trump without there being so many
    0:57:14 Mitch McConnells there. And I think the image of him not voting to convict Donald Trump in
    0:57:18 the second impeachment, even though he said that he was guilty of it and saying,
    0:57:23 “This is something that will leave to the courts,” will certainly stick with us, but also flies in
    0:57:30 the face of this notion that there were anybody on the right that stood up to Trump. Because I
    0:57:36 think that they like to say that, that these are the guys with the backbone. Maybe Mitt Romney
    0:57:42 is the exception to that, and I should shout him out for that. But Mitch McConnell is such a central
    0:57:47 piece in the complete takeover of the Republican Party by Donald Trump. And I think that’s an
    0:57:49 important element of his legacy.
    0:57:54 Yeah, Senator McConnell voting against Hexeth and Patel is like Hannibal Lecter deciding
    0:57:58 as a vegan on his deathbed. He voted for Patel, actually. He voted against Tulsi.
    0:58:07 Hexeth and Gabbard. You know, great. These folks seem to develop a conscious after they
    0:58:13 leave Congress and then go on Bill Maher or when they decide they’re resigning. I don’t think he
    0:58:19 deserves quite frankly any props for that. All right, that’s all for this episode. Thank you
    0:58:22 for listening to Raging Moderates. Jess, by the way, I hope for you this week that
    0:58:26 set some point in the park with your kids, someone comes up to you and says the following.
    0:58:29 Got milk? Oh, that’s good.
    0:58:30 Oh, that’s good.
    0:58:32 Did you, were you brewing that one for the whole hour of us chatting?
    0:58:37 That’s good. I’ve been waiting. I haven’t been able to focus on anything else. Our producers,
    0:58:43 our David Toledo and Chenenye Onike, our tactical directors, Drew Burroughs, you can now
    0:58:48 find Raging Moderates on its own feed every Tuesday. That’s right. What is real?
    0:58:53 Our own feed. There you’ll get exclusive interviews with smart voices and politics and
    0:59:00 ours. Please follow us wherever you get your podcast. Just have a great rest of the week.
    0:59:03 I hope you have a ton of inappropriate comments coming your way.
    0:59:07 Can’t wait. That’s all you crave in your 40s.

    Trump is pivoting toward Russia, GOP fractures are deepening, and Mitch McConnell is calling it quits. One month into his second term, Trump is slashing budgets, cozying up to Putin, and pushing a questionable $5,000 rebate plan with Elon Musk. Meanwhile, McConnell’s retirement raises big questions about the future of the GOP. 

    Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov

    Follow Prof G, @profgalloway.

    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

  • Prof G Markets: Is Breaking Up Intel The Right Move? + The New Gold Rush

    AI transcript
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    0:01:50 at netsuite.com/vox.
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    0:01:56 (upbeat music)
    0:02:06 – Welcome to ProfG Markets.
    0:02:08 So Scott is still away.
    0:02:09 He’s still on the slopes.
    0:02:12 We’re beginning to think he’s quiet quitting,
    0:02:13 but we’re not too worried about that
    0:02:16 because today we have one of our favorite guests
    0:02:17 on the show.
    0:02:19 You’ve heard him before.
    0:02:21 We have in the studio, the one and only
    0:02:23 downtown Josh Brown.
    0:02:25 (applause)
    0:02:27 Josh, thank you so much for joining me.
    0:02:29 – I will be doing my best Scott impression.
    0:02:31 You’ll tell me after how it went.
    0:02:32 – I can’t wait to see it.
    0:02:33 Where are you?
    0:02:34 You’re not in your usual studio.
    0:02:36 – I am in Naples, Florida,
    0:02:40 which is Chicago’s version of, I guess,
    0:02:41 Southeastern Florida.
    0:02:44 So this is Gulf Coast, Western Florida,
    0:02:45 and I love it here.
    0:02:47 I’ve never been before.
    0:02:50 We’re seeing a wealth management clients and colleagues
    0:02:54 and we’re doing a live version of our podcast tonight
    0:02:55 in town.
    0:02:56 So it’s exciting.
    0:02:57 – Very exciting.
    0:02:59 And we should plug your podcast, The Compound.
    0:03:01 I know you don’t like doing a promotion.
    0:03:05 Last time I asked you where our fans could go follow you
    0:03:07 and you said, “Don’t follow me.”
    0:03:09 So I’m just gonna tell the fans straight up,
    0:03:11 go check out The Compound.
    0:03:14 Let’s just get into the show.
    0:03:15 We’ve got a lot to get through.
    0:03:18 So let’s start off with the Market Vitals.
    0:03:20 (upbeat music)
    0:03:27 The S&P 500 hit a record high.
    0:03:29 The dollar declined, Bitcoin was flat
    0:03:31 and the yield on tenure treasuries fell,
    0:03:33 shifting to the headlines.
    0:03:35 U.S. housing starts slowed in January
    0:03:40 with new residential construction falling at 9.8%.
    0:03:42 Builders scaled back construction due to harsh winter weather
    0:03:44 while also grappling with challenges
    0:03:45 from high mortgage rates, tariffs,
    0:03:47 and inventory shortages.
    0:03:50 Elon Musk’s X is in talks for a funding round
    0:03:53 at a $44 billion valuation.
    0:03:56 That’s the same price Musk paid for it over two years ago.
    0:03:58 The funds would be used to support new initiatives,
    0:03:59 including video products,
    0:04:02 and to help pay down some of the company’s debt.
    0:04:04 And finally, Michael Saylor’s move
    0:04:05 to transform MicroStrategy
    0:04:08 into a Bitcoin Treasury company
    0:04:10 has inspired a string of copycats.
    0:04:13 At least 78 public companies have followed suit,
    0:04:17 including a meal delivery service and a coal mining firm.
    0:04:20 Also, GameStop shares jumped 20% after revealing
    0:04:23 it was considering a Bitcoin investment.
    0:04:28 So, Josh, we’ll just start with this housing starts data.
    0:04:29 I will say right off the bat,
    0:04:32 this is extremely disappointing to me.
    0:04:34 Just given all of the conversations we’ve had
    0:04:36 around the cost of housing in America,
    0:04:41 the median home price today is $420,000 in America.
    0:04:45 The median age of a home buyer is 56.
    0:04:47 And Scott and I have talked about this before.
    0:04:48 Our view is pretty simple.
    0:04:51 The way we solve this is we build more homes.
    0:04:53 And so I see this data,
    0:04:56 housing construction actually going down.
    0:04:57 And just as a young person
    0:05:01 who at some point would like to buy a home, I hope,
    0:05:03 it makes me a little depressed.
    0:05:05 So let’s just get your reactions
    0:05:07 to this housing starts data.
    0:05:09 Perhaps any thoughts on why this is happening?
    0:05:12 – I think the obvious answer in this case
    0:05:13 is the right answer.
    0:05:15 You had freezing temperatures
    0:05:18 affecting residential construction.
    0:05:20 And if you’ve got companies in that environment
    0:05:25 that wanna pause or delay a groundbreaking by a week or two,
    0:05:27 I don’t think it’s gonna have a substantial
    0:05:29 longer-term impact.
    0:05:33 And if you actually seasonally adjust that number,
    0:05:35 January was really down 8.4%,
    0:05:37 which again is not great,
    0:05:40 but not as bad as the nominal headline.
    0:05:42 And I’d like to share with you
    0:05:46 that home building was actually up 24.9%
    0:05:49 in the Western region of America,
    0:05:52 which obviously is not being affected by freezes.
    0:05:56 And so it’s the headline sounds worse than the reality.
    0:06:00 And I think the bigger issue that we have
    0:06:05 is the cost of labor to build new homes is high and rising
    0:06:10 and not necessarily in step with the disinflation
    0:06:12 that we’ve had in other parts of the economy.
    0:06:16 And it’s sticky and it’ll be stickier still
    0:06:19 as the ice raids and some of the things
    0:06:21 that are gonna happen with immigration
    0:06:24 become more and more front of mind.
    0:06:26 So if you’re worried about anything,
    0:06:29 that’s really the thing that you should be most worried about.
    0:06:31 And the home building stocks,
    0:06:33 just if you’re watching those for SignalEd,
    0:06:38 the XHB is up 1% so far this year within the XHB,
    0:06:43 which is the ETF that owns all the home building stocks,
    0:06:47 17% of those companies are above their 50 day moving average,
    0:06:50 23% are above the 200 day moving average.
    0:06:55 And about 59% of all companies in the S&P 500
    0:07:00 are above the 50, 61% are above the 200.
    0:07:02 So those stocks are all well behind
    0:07:05 where the overall market is.
    0:07:07 And I do think that there’s room
    0:07:09 if you’re an investor in the space
    0:07:11 for there to be a little bit of a catch up trade,
    0:07:13 mortgage rates fall a little bit more
    0:07:15 in the second half of the year
    0:07:17 and we get a bounce back after the weather,
    0:07:20 you could all of a sudden be reading really good headlines,
    0:07:21 I guess is what I’m trying to tell you.
    0:07:24 – To what extent do you think tariffs
    0:07:25 are going to play a role in this?
    0:07:27 And it’s good to hear that there’s a positive read on this.
    0:07:29 I think Scott and I have a tendency
    0:07:30 to just see the negative in everything.
    0:07:35 But we’ve got 30% of softwood lumber coming from abroad,
    0:07:40 32% of appliances coming from abroad.
    0:07:41 There was also this new data
    0:07:44 from the National Association of Homebuilders.
    0:07:47 And they found that a home builder confidence
    0:07:51 had its biggest drop since COVID, it fell 13 points.
    0:07:54 And I think a lot of that we could probably assume
    0:07:57 is a response to the possibility
    0:07:59 that the tariffs are about to be slapped
    0:08:01 on all of these materials.
    0:08:03 And suddenly the cost of constructing homes
    0:08:05 is going to go up.
    0:08:08 No, I don’t want to just blast Trump
    0:08:09 immediately at the top of the show.
    0:08:10 – Yes, you do.
    0:08:13 I listen to the show, you forget I listen to the show.
    0:08:15 And it’s a really good point.
    0:08:19 Like the home builders are people too,
    0:08:21 and they are susceptible to the media
    0:08:25 and they’re hearing about nonstop tariff stuff.
    0:08:28 A lot of the things that we think might be tariff won’t.
    0:08:32 We know that this is part of the negotiating tactic
    0:08:33 of the administration.
    0:08:35 We know it because number one,
    0:08:37 we had a full term of this.
    0:08:40 And then number two, we already,
    0:08:43 we have people in the administration winking at us,
    0:08:44 just talking about this stuff.
    0:08:47 Like, yeah, it’s a tariff, but so,
    0:08:49 like that’ll run its course.
    0:08:52 And the reality is that if you’re in the business
    0:08:56 of home building, your job is to make money
    0:08:57 on the homes that you build.
    0:09:01 It’s not to race in and try to fill the void of,
    0:09:05 oh my God, we’re 1.5 million homes short,
    0:09:08 what we need to be for the millennials and blah, blah.
    0:09:09 They don’t care about that.
    0:09:13 They’re in business and business finds a way.
    0:09:15 So they have to replace foreign suppliers
    0:09:19 with US suppliers and US suppliers are there to meet
    0:09:22 the demand at a reasonable price.
    0:09:23 That’s what’s gonna happen.
    0:09:25 In the end, they wanna build homes
    0:09:26 and make a profit on the homes.
    0:09:27 That’s what they’re really here for.
    0:09:30 So I think you have to have some faith
    0:09:35 that commerce and American-style capitalism will find a way
    0:09:38 regardless of what roadblocks get thrown up
    0:09:41 by international trade wars or whatever.
    0:09:43 And one of the things I wanna say to you
    0:09:45 and to your listeners and viewers,
    0:09:49 it’s really easy to buy into worst case scenarios.
    0:09:52 Train yourself to think about what could go right.
    0:09:54 And sometimes it doesn’t work out.
    0:09:58 But if you look at these things and you say,
    0:10:00 okay, but what could go right?
    0:10:03 You’re immediately one step ahead
    0:10:05 from most first level thinkers
    0:10:08 who read a negative article, process it as negative,
    0:10:12 and then embed that negative expectation in their minds.
    0:10:15 Like, okay, but what could go right?
    0:10:17 So here’s an example, what could go right?
    0:10:21 Now you have confidence really low amongst home builders
    0:10:22 because they think there are gonna be
    0:10:24 all these monkey wrenches.
    0:10:25 Let’s say those monkey wrenches
    0:10:27 are not thrown into the works.
    0:10:30 All of a sudden, that confidence returns.
    0:10:34 And we see a pattern of this happening all the time.
    0:10:37 Trump or no Trump, this is a mindset shift
    0:10:39 that I think investors need to make.
    0:10:42 – Yes, let’s move on to the X valuation,
    0:10:45 this funding round that’s going to value X
    0:10:49 at $44 billion, the same amount Elon paid for Twitter.
    0:10:51 – How many shares can I put you down for?
    0:10:53 (laughing)
    0:10:55 – It’s gonna be none for me.
    0:10:57 How about you, would you invest in this?
    0:11:00 – No, well, so here’s the thing.
    0:11:02 It’s an advertising business.
    0:11:04 Are there any shortages of ways
    0:11:09 for public market investors to bet on advertising?
    0:11:13 Not really, if you really wanna be invested in ads,
    0:11:16 you can be invested in ads in a myriad amount of ways,
    0:11:20 none of which involve all of the volatility
    0:11:23 and potential risk and the mercuriousness
    0:11:25 of the CEO of this project.
    0:11:27 Like you can skip all of that and just invest
    0:11:31 in ad-based businesses and there are plenty to choose from.
    0:11:34 So from my dollar, the answer is no.
    0:11:35 – The other big question here is like,
    0:11:39 how did they land on this number as evaluation?
    0:11:41 We basically have no signal
    0:11:42 into what this thing is actually worth.
    0:11:44 And this is the big question that we’ve been asking.
    0:11:46 And it’s very hard to know
    0:11:49 because we don’t see the financials anymore
    0:11:51 ever since it went private.
    0:11:54 But the best signal that we got was from Fidelity,
    0:11:56 which owns a stake in X
    0:12:00 and they valued the company at $10 billion.
    0:12:02 And that was just in December.
    0:12:04 So I guess the thing that I can’t really wrap my head around
    0:12:09 is how could these new investors, whoever they may be,
    0:12:13 justify a new valuation of $44 billion
    0:12:14 when just a few months ago,
    0:12:17 it was valued at less than a quarter of that.
    0:12:21 I wonder if this might be due to Elon’s association
    0:12:24 with Trump, maybe having that connection
    0:12:26 makes people more excited and more bullish on the company.
    0:12:29 Maybe it also has to do with XAI,
    0:12:30 Elon’s new AI startup,
    0:12:34 which is reportedly raising in a $75 billion valuation.
    0:12:37 Maybe they think that X, the social media platform
    0:12:41 can capture some of the value of the AI company.
    0:12:44 Or maybe they’ve just quadrupled their revenues overnight,
    0:12:45 but I highly doubt that.
    0:12:47 So what do you think, Josh?
    0:12:48 What do you think these investors
    0:12:51 in this potential round for X are seeing
    0:12:56 that the guys over at Fidelity two months ago didn’t see?
    0:12:59 – I think it’s the halo effect of Elon Musk.
    0:13:00 He has a ton of momentum
    0:13:03 in terms of the zeitgeist of the country
    0:13:06 moving in the direction of what he’s done
    0:13:08 with free speech on the platform.
    0:13:10 And you could absolutely hate the stuff
    0:13:12 that you come across on the platform and that’s fine.
    0:13:15 But a lot of people just like the fact that it exists.
    0:13:20 And they see meta kind of following Elon into this,
    0:13:23 which is what was the last time meta or Facebook
    0:13:26 ever followed Twitter into anything.
    0:13:31 So they kind of see that the vibe shift in the country,
    0:13:33 especially amongst young people,
    0:13:37 but really in places that surprised people
    0:13:39 among African American voters,
    0:13:42 among voters living in border towns in Texas,
    0:13:45 like none of these people were supposed to have
    0:13:49 had heard that rhetoric from Trump and Elon Musk
    0:13:52 and had that resonate with them and yet they did.
    0:13:55 And so I think advertisers feel a little bit more emboldened
    0:14:00 about being willing to place ads on the X platform
    0:14:03 where six months ago they would not have.
    0:14:06 I think some of that is being reflected in the valuation.
    0:14:09 I also think the valuation is made up to begin with.
    0:14:11 The 44 billion is what he paid for it.
    0:14:14 So this is him saying, “Hey, I didn’t destroy any value here.
    0:14:15 Things are better than ever.”
    0:14:17 So there’s some of that.
    0:14:20 I also think there are people willing to buy a stake in this
    0:14:24 just because it gets them in the room.
    0:14:27 It’s like, yeah, I invested in your X platform.
    0:14:28 Now allow me to talk to you
    0:14:30 about this other aspect of my business.
    0:14:35 And so a really cheap way for a big investor to buy in,
    0:14:40 so to speak, is to buy some equity at X
    0:14:43 and rub elbows with the people
    0:14:45 that are perceived to have a lot of momentum.
    0:14:46 – Yeah, absolutely.
    0:14:50 I mean, we certainly saw all of these blue chip advertisers
    0:14:51 fleeing the platform.
    0:14:54 And it feels like what might be happening now
    0:14:56 is they’re starting to come back,
    0:14:58 especially after the election.
    0:15:01 Do you think we might see that swing back?
    0:15:04 – Yeah, because it’s not just happening on X.
    0:15:09 Google is pulling out all these Black History Month
    0:15:10 and Women’s History Month.
    0:15:13 They’re pulling all that stuff off the calendars.
    0:15:16 You are not gonna see the Pride Month displays
    0:15:20 at Target and elsewhere that you’ve seen in previous years.
    0:15:23 All that stuff’s gonna be downplayed.
    0:15:27 Corporate America is recognizing that they were pushed
    0:15:30 to go way further in one direction
    0:15:34 than the average person in this country
    0:15:35 really wanted to follow.
    0:15:38 And so now they’re tacking all the way back
    0:15:39 in the other direction.
    0:15:42 And maybe, of course, that’ll go too far too.
    0:15:44 But X is uniquely positioned
    0:15:47 to get back to the original question.
    0:15:51 If you wanna demonstrate that you’re about profits
    0:15:55 and making money and satisfying the customer,
    0:15:59 a really easy way to do that is to be back in business
    0:16:01 with Elon and with X.
    0:16:03 And just to say like, look,
    0:16:06 here’s where our customers are.
    0:16:08 This is where they are emotionally and spiritually
    0:16:09 and we’re there too.
    0:16:13 It’s a really easy signal flare to fire in the air.
    0:16:16 And you’re gonna see, I think,
    0:16:17 you’re gonna see advertisers back.
    0:16:21 – Let’s move on to MicroStrategy.
    0:16:23 Multiple companies now copying the playbook
    0:16:28 where you just basically buy up a bunch of Bitcoin.
    0:16:31 I look at these companies and the common thread
    0:16:34 I see among all of them is that they’re all
    0:16:35 shitty companies is what I would say.
    0:16:39 And I think back to what Michael Saylor said
    0:16:42 on this podcast, which is that before he got
    0:16:46 into Bitcoin, MicroStrategy was struggling too.
    0:16:48 So I’m seeing this Bitcoin strategy,
    0:16:52 it kind of looks like the get out of jail free card
    0:16:55 for shitty struggling businesses.
    0:16:57 Do I have that wrong or do you think
    0:16:59 that’s sort of what’s happening here?
    0:17:00 – Nah, you nailed it.
    0:17:05 And we’ve seen versions of this before in 2017.
    0:17:08 There was a wave of small and micro cap companies
    0:17:12 adding the word blockchain to their official corporate name.
    0:17:15 Like literally changing the corporate name
    0:17:17 to something blockchain
    0:17:19 and immediately getting a boost in their valuation
    0:17:24 because Bitcoin rallied up to 18,000 that year
    0:17:28 from like 9,000 and it just became the zeitgeist
    0:17:30 and dead ends companies that didn’t have much going on.
    0:17:33 It was like an overnight way to add market cap.
    0:17:36 Of course, it failed spectacularly in 2018
    0:17:38 when the price of Bitcoin crashed.
    0:17:39 So none of this is surprising.
    0:17:43 And I think the interesting thing that happens here
    0:17:47 in the short term, it actually bolsters strategy
    0:17:49 because you have a lot more entities
    0:17:51 that are buying up Bitcoin.
    0:17:55 And as the scarcity of Bitcoin becomes more
    0:17:59 of a widespread idea, obviously companies
    0:18:01 that own a lot of Bitcoin will benefit.
    0:18:02 Over the longer term though,
    0:18:06 or the intermediate term if this continues and grows,
    0:18:11 I think you’ll lose the premium that strategy has
    0:18:14 to its value of Bitcoin.
    0:18:16 So right now it trades at a premium
    0:18:18 to the amount of Bitcoin it owns
    0:18:21 because people believe in not just the value of the Bitcoins
    0:18:24 but the strategy of accumulating more.
    0:18:26 So it’s selling at a premium to,
    0:18:27 if this were a closed end fund,
    0:18:32 we would say a premium to NAV or net asset value.
    0:18:35 The premium will shrink if there are five of these companies.
    0:18:38 If there are 10 of them that attain any kind of size.
    0:18:40 So that’s one interesting thing that could happen
    0:18:43 where all of a sudden the company strategy
    0:18:48 starts to trade at closer to just the value of its Bitcoin
    0:18:51 ’cause it loses that scarcity premium
    0:18:53 because there are so many imitators out there in the market.
    0:18:55 – I’d love to get your thoughts
    0:18:58 on Michael Saylor’s strategy in general.
    0:19:01 I look at what he’s doing, I’m very skeptical of it.
    0:19:05 You know, you describe the premium to NAV there
    0:19:06 and a lot of why that’s happening
    0:19:11 is because he’s basically securitizing the value of Bitcoin
    0:19:14 to issue bonds and then using the bond proceeds
    0:19:15 to buy even more Bitcoin
    0:19:17 and just levering and levering and levering.
    0:19:20 And to me, at a certain point it starts to look
    0:19:23 more like a Ponzi scheme than anything else.
    0:19:26 The whole thing feels extremely unstable,
    0:19:29 especially when you bring up those historical comparisons
    0:19:31 of adding blockchain to these companies.
    0:19:33 It feels very similar to that.
    0:19:35 And then add on top of that the fact
    0:19:40 that the NASDAQ has now decided to include this company
    0:19:42 in the NASDAQ 100.
    0:19:46 This adds a whole new dimension of concern for me
    0:19:49 because now you have millions of people in pension funds
    0:19:52 and people’s retirement accounts holding this thing
    0:19:55 that arguably doesn’t have much value
    0:19:59 or at least that isn’t generating real cash flows
    0:20:03 in a normal, regular way that another company would.
    0:20:04 Perhaps I’m being too negative.
    0:20:06 Does this make sense to you?
    0:20:07 – It works and it makes sense
    0:20:09 so long as the price of Bitcoin goes higher.
    0:20:11 (laughing)
    0:20:14 I’m sorry, but that’s the reality.
    0:20:15 – You’re not comforting me.
    0:20:20 – He owns 2.28% of all of the 21 million Bitcoin
    0:20:23 that will be available.
    0:20:26 So available now and available in the future.
    0:20:28 That’s impressive.
    0:20:31 If you think that Bitcoin is going substantially higher,
    0:20:34 he’s got a $31,000 cost basis on that Bitcoin.
    0:20:38 That cost basis will rise as he continues to buy,
    0:20:43 but the bet is the demands for all of the other Bitcoin
    0:20:48 available will grow more quickly than the new supply
    0:20:51 coming on net of whatever he’s buying.
    0:20:54 And these other companies that are aping the strategy
    0:20:55 are way more ridiculous.
    0:20:59 So here are a couple, similar scientific.
    0:21:03 This is a quote unquote chronic disease detection company.
    0:21:05 You could see why they’d wanna buy digital assets.
    0:21:07 Makes perfect sense.
    0:21:11 They bought 871 Bitcoin for $88.5 million.
    0:21:15 They used a convertible bond that they issued in January.
    0:21:20 Its stock price is up 120% since buying this crypto
    0:21:24 and they’re calling it their primary treasury asset.
    0:21:28 Here’s another one, meta-planet based in Japan.
    0:21:32 They’re calling themselves Asia’s strategy.
    0:21:35 Last year they switched from developing hotels
    0:21:38 into becoming a Bitcoin treasury company.
    0:21:41 The stock price has gained more than 2000%.
    0:21:43 – My God.
    0:21:46 – So I guess what I’m trying to tell you is
    0:21:48 don’t get mad at strategy.
    0:21:52 If you really wanna hate something,
    0:21:55 hate the Japanese hotel company, meta-planet.
    0:21:57 Like there are way worse versions of this.
    0:22:02 If Bitcoin craters to $50,000,
    0:22:06 strategy share price will implode.
    0:22:07 Of course it will.
    0:22:09 The way you made money in Bitcoin,
    0:22:12 and I made some, I should have made more.
    0:22:14 The way that you made money in Bitcoin
    0:22:17 was to ask yourself the following question.
    0:22:19 And I heard this put by Bill Miller,
    0:22:22 who’s one of the greatest stock market mutual fund
    0:22:23 managers of all time.
    0:22:25 He had an unsurpassed record.
    0:22:28 He beat the market 15 consecutive years.
    0:22:30 Nobody else has ever done that.
    0:22:33 He got very heavily interested in Bitcoin way early.
    0:22:37 And the question that he posed and then answered
    0:22:41 is the supply of Bitcoin is only gonna grow 2% a year.
    0:22:43 Supply.
    0:22:48 Ask yourself this, will demand grow faster or slower?
    0:22:50 If you answered the question faster,
    0:22:54 then de facto you had to be bullish on Bitcoin.
    0:22:57 To answer it slower, were you wrong?
    0:22:59 ‘Cause the demand outstripped the supply,
    0:23:03 which is why the price has gone from $50 of Bitcoin
    0:23:07 to $80,000, to $90,000, to $110,000.
    0:23:11 Like that was the right way to answer that question.
    0:23:12 So if you believe that the demand
    0:23:15 will continue to rise faster than the supply,
    0:23:17 then you’ll probably bullish on strategy
    0:23:18 and you’ll probably own it
    0:23:22 in addition to regular Bitcoin that you also hold.
    0:23:26 It’s easy to be skeptical that the demand will stay.
    0:23:28 But so far, that’s been the case.
    0:23:31 And people who have shorted this thing
    0:23:33 have trained tracks across their backs to prove it.
    0:23:37 We’ll be right back after the break with a look at Intel.
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    0:23:40 be sure to give ProfGMarkets a follow
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    0:27:16 We’re back with ProfG Markets.
    0:27:18 Intel could be headed for a breakup
    0:27:21 with the help of TSMC and Broadcom.
    0:27:25 TSMC is exploring taking control of Intel’s US factories
    0:27:28 while Broadcom is in talks to acquire Intel’s chip design
    0:27:30 and marketing business.
    0:27:33 Intel’s stock surged 16% on that news
    0:27:37 marking its biggest rally since 2020.
    0:27:42 So, Josh, this feels quite important symbolically.
    0:27:45 I mean, just going back through history.
    0:27:48 In the year 2000, Intel was the sixth largest company
    0:27:50 by market cap in the world.
    0:27:55 It hit a peak of half a trillion dollars in market value.
    0:27:59 And since then, it’s shed almost 80%.
    0:28:01 We’ve seen this AI explosion.
    0:28:04 Its competitors have exploded in value.
    0:28:08 Chipmakers like TSMC, AMD, Broadcom and Vidya.
    0:28:09 And now Intel is not even among
    0:28:13 the top 10 most valuable chipmakers in the world.
    0:28:17 And it appears as though it’s going to be split up into two
    0:28:19 and acquired by the two companies
    0:28:21 it was specifically trying to compete with,
    0:28:23 which are Broadcom and TSMC.
    0:28:26 What went wrong for Intel?
    0:28:27 – DEI.
    0:28:30 – Isn’t that what we’re doing now?
    0:28:31 – That’s the problem.
    0:28:34 It’s actually, it’s not that far off.
    0:28:37 MeToo is sort of what I wouldn’t blame
    0:28:39 the MeToo movement for this,
    0:28:42 but that’s where Intel’s problems started.
    0:28:46 In 2018, they had a CEO who had to step down.
    0:28:47 I don’t have all the details,
    0:28:48 but he had a relationship with somebody
    0:28:51 who was working at Intel.
    0:28:54 It came to light and the board asked for his resignation,
    0:28:56 which of course, that’s how that ends.
    0:29:01 So please, if you’re running a publicly traded company,
    0:29:03 try to control yourself around your employees.
    0:29:04 – Keep it in your pants.
    0:29:08 – Anyway, that’s 2018 and what comes out of that
    0:29:13 is a succession of bad leadership/bad decision making.
    0:29:17 Intel decides in that moment of succession,
    0:29:19 they have a new incoming CEO
    0:29:23 and they decide what they’re gonna do
    0:29:28 is they’re gonna go full bore into the foundry business.
    0:29:30 They have this manufacturing advantage.
    0:29:33 They’re one of the highest throughput manufacturers
    0:29:36 of chips in the world and they’re better at it
    0:29:37 than other American chip companies
    0:29:41 and they look at the success of Taiwan Semi,
    0:29:45 which has effectively become like the outsourced manufacturer
    0:29:47 to all of the chip design companies all over the world.
    0:29:49 And Intel says we could do that too
    0:29:52 and that’s gonna be a big part of the future of our business.
    0:29:57 And that was a horrible in hindsight, strategic decision.
    0:29:59 I think Wall Street hated it in real time
    0:30:02 and keep in mind this is during a time the rise of NVIDIA
    0:30:06 but it’s pre-AI, it’s 2018, 2019.
    0:30:09 At that time NVIDIA, it’s very well known
    0:30:12 that NVIDIA is going to be a big player
    0:30:16 in next generation technologies like AR, augmented reality,
    0:30:21 VR, virtual reality, machine learning, AGI.
    0:30:24 What NVIDIA is doing is parallel processing.
    0:30:26 They’re taking this technology
    0:30:30 that they initially developed for video game development
    0:30:32 and they’re pivoting it to these other technologies
    0:30:37 where linear processing is not the right answer.
    0:30:42 So Intel is the linear processing king, the CPU king.
    0:30:45 Linear processing, it’s we do this operation,
    0:30:47 then we do that one, then we do that one.
    0:30:49 Parallel processing is multiple things at once
    0:30:52 and if you’re gonna do autonomous driving, for example,
    0:30:57 you can’t wait for a progression of linear compute.
    0:30:59 It’s gotta be parallel.
    0:31:03 So NVIDIA is kind of in pole position for the GPU era
    0:31:05 and Intel’s not even there at all.
    0:31:09 And as a result, they go into Foundry
    0:31:12 and Foundry is just a terrible smokestack,
    0:31:14 industrial kind of business
    0:31:16 and you’re never gonna get the same stock multiple
    0:31:20 that you’ll get as if you’re a chip designer, asset light,
    0:31:23 we create the front end of this
    0:31:25 and we pay somebody else to do the dirty work.
    0:31:27 And so they’ve been stumbling.
    0:31:29 This is going on for a long time.
    0:31:34 It well predates the launch of ChatGPT and the AI era,
    0:31:36 but of course that only made the disparity
    0:31:38 between Intel and NVIDIA even worse.
    0:31:41 Companies like ASML overseas
    0:31:43 and other chip companies, ARM Holdings,
    0:31:46 they all got the memo and Intel didn’t.
    0:31:49 And as a result, this is why this company
    0:31:50 is now a shell of its former self.
    0:31:53 It’s a $100 billion market cap
    0:31:56 in a land of trillion dollar companies
    0:31:59 like Broadcom and NVIDIA.
    0:32:00 In the last eight quarters or two years,
    0:32:03 Intel has been profitable on an operating basis
    0:32:06 in only three of those quarters.
    0:32:09 On a net income basis, Intel has lost money four quarters
    0:32:12 in a row through the last quarterly report.
    0:32:16 It’s just an absolutely horrendous fall from grace.
    0:32:21 And maybe the right answer is to put a nail in the coffin,
    0:32:26 separate out the chip design from the foundry business,
    0:32:29 have somebody else take those things over,
    0:32:31 and say goodbye to Intel.
    0:32:34 And maybe that might be the better outcome
    0:32:38 for current shareholders than trying to continue
    0:32:43 to slog it out, given the market realities of today
    0:32:45 where Intel is in no man’s land.
    0:32:48 Just going back to the decision to get into foundry
    0:32:50 and just to clarify for us as foundry
    0:32:53 is basically getting into the actual manufacturing
    0:32:54 of these chips.
    0:32:57 Most of the big companies we’re talking about NVIDIA,
    0:32:59 NVIDIA is probably the best example of Broadcom,
    0:33:02 they’re designing chips, which is just a better business
    0:33:05 and then they pay someone else to produce it for them.
    0:33:07 And Intel decided they wanted to try to get into the business
    0:33:10 of actually producing these chips
    0:33:11 for other companies like Qualcomm.
    0:33:14 This is the business that TSMC is in.
    0:33:17 And so they made that decision to go into foundry
    0:33:21 and I think everyone would agree with you
    0:33:23 that was a bad decision.
    0:33:25 They got caught completely flat footed,
    0:33:28 this AI boom took off and then suddenly everyone
    0:33:31 has these GPUs and Intel’s operating
    0:33:33 with a kind of shitty CPU business
    0:33:37 and then also they’re investing huge amounts of capital
    0:33:39 into building out this foundry business.
    0:33:44 I guess from sort of like a management perspective,
    0:33:46 what could they have done differently?
    0:33:50 Should they just not have invested in foundry to begin with?
    0:33:53 Should they have invested more maybe in R&D
    0:33:54 trying to predict AI?
    0:33:56 I mean, I feel it feels very easy to say,
    0:33:58 oh, what a terrible decision.
    0:34:00 – It’s the wrong people running the company.
    0:34:02 In this day and age,
    0:34:06 if you’re going to be at the helm of a chip giant,
    0:34:09 you have to have a visionary streak
    0:34:13 that enables you to see around corners and predict,
    0:34:16 you cannot be a bean counter.
    0:34:20 You cannot be just like an operations guru,
    0:34:25 but not have a vision of where the tech is going.
    0:34:28 I mean, you can get away with that for a few years,
    0:34:29 but ultimately it catches up to you.
    0:34:34 It’s not a surprise that Broadcom got to a trillion dollar
    0:34:41 valuation, it’s run by Hock Tan, who is a visionary.
    0:34:45 He’s like a 40 year veteran of the chip industry.
    0:34:49 And he’s been there at the birth of so many milestones
    0:34:52 in the tech landscape.
    0:34:56 Jensen Wang, Lisa Su who runs AMD,
    0:34:59 these people are running circles
    0:35:01 around Pat Gelsinger at Intel,
    0:35:03 who I think has already stepped down.
    0:35:08 It’s a management, it’s not just one decision.
    0:35:12 This is this cumulative decision making process
    0:35:14 and you either get it or you don’t.
    0:35:18 And if you don’t, you miss where the market’s heading.
    0:35:19 That’s one.
    0:35:22 Two, a friend of mine, Jason Xu,
    0:35:25 who’s a radiant global advisors.
    0:35:26 He had been at research affiliates.
    0:35:30 He’s a Chinese born investment manager
    0:35:33 here in the United States, brilliant guy.
    0:35:36 And Jason, I asked him last year,
    0:35:41 shortly after the CHIPS Act, I had a conversation with him
    0:35:44 and there was this whole push to start the on-shoring.
    0:35:48 And the semiconductor shortages of COVID for the automobiles
    0:35:49 and we can’t let that happen again.
    0:35:52 And Intel is gonna spearhead this effort
    0:35:54 to start building chips here in the United States
    0:35:57 in Arizona and elsewhere.
    0:35:59 And then we’re gonna build our own fabs
    0:36:02 and the government is gonna underwrite it.
    0:36:03 And it’s gonna be great.
    0:36:07 And Jason kind of said, not so fast.
    0:36:10 What you have to understand is,
    0:36:15 if you are a highly technically skilled person in Taiwan,
    0:36:21 you dream of being in an underground white room
    0:36:26 for Taiwan Semi working in a laboratory all day
    0:36:27 in a hazmat suit.
    0:36:28 That’s like, that’s your dream.
    0:36:33 Your counterpart in America does not have that same dream,
    0:36:37 does not wanna work in a clean room 11 hours a day
    0:36:39 for Intel in Arizona.
    0:36:43 It’s just not, so our most talented,
    0:36:46 most brilliant scientists
    0:36:49 and technically savvy engineers in America
    0:36:52 do not want what that same person would want
    0:36:54 growing up in Taiwan.
    0:36:58 And so Jason said, the idea of us having our best
    0:37:01 and our brightest living in Glendale.
    0:37:04 What’s wrong with Glendale?
    0:37:05 It’s not gonna go that way.
    0:37:09 There’s a reason for Taiwan’s ascension
    0:37:10 to the top of the heap in terms
    0:37:13 of chip manufacturing around the world.
    0:37:17 There’s a reason it’s there and it’s not in Connecticut.
    0:37:18 Yeah, exactly.
    0:37:19 Just looking ahead now.
    0:37:21 So we’ve got Broadcom,
    0:37:24 which is eyeing the chip design business.
    0:37:27 And then TSMC is looking at purchasing the foundry business.
    0:37:29 There are a lot of questions
    0:37:32 over how viable any of this really is.
    0:37:34 I’ve seen some analysts notes pointing out
    0:37:39 that TSMC has very different equipment to Intel,
    0:37:41 so maybe you won’t have those synergies
    0:37:42 that people were expecting.
    0:37:44 Maybe it doesn’t actually make sense for them.
    0:37:46 I think the biggest question mark, though,
    0:37:48 is the regulatory approval for this.
    0:37:51 Because if this deal were to go through,
    0:37:54 at least for TSMC,
    0:37:57 you will need sign off from the US government.
    0:38:01 So just from a regulatory perspective,
    0:38:02 how do you think this goes down, Josh?
    0:38:05 Do you think Trump and the government
    0:38:06 would ever let this go through?
    0:38:08 I would just comment.
    0:38:11 If Taiwan Semi really wants it,
    0:38:13 if Broadcom really wants it,
    0:38:16 I would just say gentlemen, prepare to golf.
    0:38:19 You are going to be spending a lot of time at Mar-a-Lago.
    0:38:24 Prepare to tweet positive things about Trump
    0:38:26 and prepare to golf,
    0:38:29 because this ain’t going to go through the courts.
    0:38:32 This is 2025.
    0:38:33 If you want this deal done,
    0:38:35 it’s got to look like a win for Trump.
    0:38:40 If the headline is Trump successfully sells Intel
    0:38:43 to two of the most successful companies in the world
    0:38:48 to create new jobs for American workers in red states,
    0:38:50 you got a shot.
    0:38:53 If the headlines are going to look more like
    0:38:56 American failure while Trump was in office,
    0:38:58 this ain’t going to fly.
    0:39:01 This is going to be looked at from an optic standpoint,
    0:39:04 more so than a strategic standpoint.
    0:39:09 I will say, Taiwan Semi is a foreign company,
    0:39:13 but if they’re going to commit to making a go
    0:39:17 of this kind of semi-manufacturing on American soil,
    0:39:20 and we say that that’s not a bad outcome,
    0:39:24 that’s a good thing, then maybe it could happen.
    0:39:27 But I don’t have any edge on whether or not
    0:39:28 they’ll approve it.
    0:39:29 – You’ve been working on your swing, Josh?
    0:39:30 – Not nearly enough.
    0:39:32 Thank God I’m not trying to buy Intel.
    0:39:35 – All right, we’ll be right back after the break
    0:39:37 with a look at the new Gold Rush.
    0:39:39 If you’re enjoying the show so far,
    0:39:42 hit follow and leave us a review on Proffy Markets.
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    0:41:27 – We’re back with Prof. G Markets.
    0:41:29 Gold is hitting record highs
    0:41:31 up more than 10% year to date
    0:41:34 as investors seek out safe havens
    0:41:36 amid geopolitical uncertainty.
    0:41:38 President Trump’s tariff threats,
    0:41:40 paired with fears of resurgent inflation
    0:41:42 and higher for longer interest rates,
    0:41:43 have pushed the price of the commodity
    0:41:47 to nearly $3,000 per troy ounce.
    0:41:52 Josh, this asset has had its best month in 13 years.
    0:41:55 I never really understand gold, right?
    0:41:57 I really struggle with gold as an asset.
    0:42:01 What is going on with gold right now, from your view,
    0:42:04 and why are investors so obsessed with it in this moment?
    0:42:07 The best way to understand gold is just take
    0:42:09 whatever the price is doing
    0:42:12 and then take whatever the headlines are
    0:42:16 and concoct a story that enables you to say
    0:42:19 A plus B equals C, like truthfully.
    0:42:24 If gold goes up concurrent to there being inflation,
    0:42:25 oh, it’s very simple.
    0:42:26 People are buying gold
    0:42:28 because they’re worried about inflation.
    0:42:31 If the inflation is rising, but gold is not rising,
    0:42:35 oh, it’s very simple, gold already rallied,
    0:42:37 and now the inflation is happening.
    0:42:39 Therefore, the people that bought gold
    0:42:43 before the rally anticipated the inflation.
    0:42:45 It’s honestly, it’s a fucking joke,
    0:42:46 and nobody knows why.
    0:42:48 Nobody knows why anything does anything,
    0:42:51 but they definitely can’t explain a gold rally
    0:42:54 other than ex post facto.
    0:42:57 So here, I will tell you why gold is rallying.
    0:43:01 Gold started to rally in the winter of 2022
    0:43:03 when Russia invaded Ukraine,
    0:43:06 and that is, to this day,
    0:43:09 the predominant reason for why gold is rising.
    0:43:11 Central banks looked at the way Russia
    0:43:14 was kicked out of the swift banking system.
    0:43:17 They looked at the way Russia was sort of de-platformed
    0:43:22 from the global economy, and they said to themselves,
    0:43:26 maybe we need to diversify away from the dollar,
    0:43:29 because if we get kicked out of the global banking system,
    0:43:31 we’re gonna have to have a way to transact,
    0:43:34 and we’re gonna have to diversify our currency reserves.
    0:43:36 So once you reach that conclusion,
    0:43:40 you realize there aren’t really that many other assets
    0:43:42 that make a lot of sense.
    0:43:45 Gold is, as a result, being bought
    0:43:47 by central banks around the world,
    0:43:51 especially in countries where they might be concerned about
    0:43:55 this sort of thing, like China, like Iran, like Russia.
    0:43:59 And so the demand for gold is truly
    0:44:01 a geopolitical phenomenon.
    0:44:05 So fine, we’ll say the reason for gold’s rise is geopolitics.
    0:44:08 Okay, I can point to historical examples
    0:44:11 where gold’s sold off during geopolitical,
    0:44:13 tensions flaring, but fine.
    0:44:16 That seems to be the story that most people have accepted.
    0:44:19 But then the other thing that happens, that is,
    0:44:22 the trading mentality shifts,
    0:44:25 and all of a sudden, that story becomes so popular
    0:44:28 that people in their investment accounts
    0:44:30 start to accumulate gold on the theory
    0:44:34 that that sort of thing will continue.
    0:44:36 And so people start to extrapolate the recent past,
    0:44:38 and that’s where you get the momentum.
    0:44:43 So now gold is up 9% annualized over the past 15 years,
    0:44:47 nominal terms, 8.8% annualized over the past 10 years,
    0:44:51 but over the last three years, it’s been rising faster.
    0:44:55 15% annualized return over the last three years.
    0:44:59 Over the last one year, it’s up 45%
    0:45:02 and it’s up 12% since the year started.
    0:45:06 So if you think about gold over the long term,
    0:45:08 does not do better than stocks,
    0:45:12 but I can show you these five and 10 year periods of time
    0:45:14 where it far outperforms the stock market.
    0:45:16 And so people are looking at the momentum there
    0:45:19 and they’re saying, okay, this is a gold bull market.
    0:45:21 I don’t know when it ends, but I need to be there for it.
    0:45:24 So that kind of feeds on itself.
    0:45:26 And I think that’s where we find ourselves today.
    0:45:28 – I’d love to get your view on gold
    0:45:30 as an investment in general.
    0:45:33 I mean, you as a wealth manager,
    0:45:37 do you think that this is a worthwhile investment?
    0:45:38 And I’ll just put it out there.
    0:45:41 I don’t really see the value of gold
    0:45:44 when you can invest in companies that pay dividends
    0:45:48 and generate cash flows and provide actual value
    0:45:49 into the world.
    0:45:52 And then meanwhile, just gold just sort of sits there
    0:45:53 and does nothing.
    0:45:55 – Here’s a long-term reality.
    0:45:56 Go back to 1928.
    0:46:00 So we have 86 years worth of data.
    0:46:02 Stocks have done 11.8%.
    0:46:05 This is nominal, not adjusted for inflation.
    0:46:08 Stocks have done 11.8% over the last 100 years.
    0:46:10 Gold has done 6.6.
    0:46:14 High quality bonds, US treasuries have done 4.8.
    0:46:16 Real estate 4.4.
    0:46:18 Cash 3.4.
    0:46:22 So gold has done well, has not done well as well as stocks.
    0:46:27 And I have to tell you the chasm between 11.8 and 6.6
    0:46:30 is absolutely massive when you remind yourself
    0:46:34 that we’re talking about compound annual returns.
    0:46:37 We’re not just talking about one year.
    0:46:41 We’re saying like a 30-year investment time horizon,
    0:46:43 it’s not just 50% better.
    0:46:47 It’s substantially better, the returns of stocks.
    0:46:50 And I think that will probably be always be the case
    0:46:52 over really long periods of time.
    0:46:55 But there are periods of time where gold beat stocks
    0:46:57 and there are specific years
    0:46:59 and three year and five year and 10 year periods.
    0:47:02 So some people use it as a diverse fire
    0:47:04 and portfolios, some people don’t.
    0:47:05 We do not.
    0:47:08 There’s no reason to own commodities at all individually.
    0:47:10 And if there is a commodity boom,
    0:47:11 it’ll show up in the stock market.
    0:47:14 And if you own stocks, you’ll get the benefit of that.
    0:47:16 So we own oil equities.
    0:47:18 We don’t buy barrels of oil.
    0:47:22 If you have an S&P 500 exposure, you have gold equities.
    0:47:25 And if there’s a huge boom in gold,
    0:47:27 those gold equities in market cap terms
    0:47:29 will become larger proportionally
    0:47:31 to the rest of the stock market.
    0:47:33 So you will see some of the benefit of that.
    0:47:36 But we don’t own commodities outright individually.
    0:47:41 We own stocks and we will get the reflection
    0:47:45 of those booms and busts via our exposure to the stock market.
    0:47:46 – In the reporting on this,
    0:47:50 you know, we hear a lot about the spot price of gold
    0:47:53 and then we hear a lot about the futures price,
    0:47:54 gold futures price.
    0:47:56 Could you just break down for us briefly
    0:48:00 what that difference actually is
    0:48:05 and why that difference matters if it does it all?
    0:48:10 – It doesn’t really matter unless you’re in the jewelry business.
    0:48:13 The spot price of gold is literally what you’re taking.
    0:48:17 When you’re taking physical delivery of gold bullion,
    0:48:20 that’s what that price is about.
    0:48:22 And of course, most people who are trading,
    0:48:24 they’re taking delivery of nothing.
    0:48:26 They’re in ETFs.
    0:48:28 They held GLD.
    0:48:31 The futures market is what producers
    0:48:34 and what they call commercials
    0:48:39 use to hedge the volatility of future prices.
    0:48:42 So as a, for instance,
    0:48:44 if you’re in the business of buying a certain amount of gold
    0:48:46 over the course of the year
    0:48:49 as a commercial player in the market,
    0:48:53 let’s say you’re a jewelry manufacturer, okay?
    0:48:57 The big risk for you is that the gold
    0:48:59 that you have to buy six months from now
    0:49:02 will rise significantly in price.
    0:49:04 So you would use the gold futures market
    0:49:05 as a way to hedge that risk.
    0:49:08 You would put on certain trades or collars
    0:49:12 or whatever your strategy is to try to mitigate
    0:49:16 the disastrous impact of the price of gold rising 30%,
    0:49:19 which could wreck the economics of the business
    0:49:20 that you’re engaged in.
    0:49:23 And vice versa, if you’re a gold miner
    0:49:26 and you know that you need to sell
    0:49:29 a certain amount of tons of gold a year from now
    0:49:31 and you’re worried the price might be lower,
    0:49:35 you could lock in using the futures market.
    0:49:36 You could lock in the price
    0:49:37 that you’ll be selling gold at.
    0:49:41 So think of the spot market as being more relevant
    0:49:44 to companies that are physically engaged
    0:49:46 in the gold market buying and selling
    0:49:51 or banks that are stockpiling gold central banks.
    0:49:53 And think of the futures market as more of a tool
    0:49:56 to either hedge or speculate on the price
    0:49:59 three months from now, nine months from now.
    0:50:00 – I bring it up ’cause we’re just seeing
    0:50:03 this very interesting dynamic, but in that difference
    0:50:06 where right now you have gold futures trading
    0:50:08 at record highs in New York,
    0:50:13 but over in London, the spot price is significantly lower.
    0:50:15 And that’s where the Bank of England
    0:50:18 holds all of that physical gold that you’re talking about.
    0:50:20 And because of that spread,
    0:50:24 it’s just a very interesting story that we’re seeing.
    0:50:28 You have JPMorgan and HSBC and all these other banks
    0:50:31 who as we speak are literally flying gold
    0:50:36 across the ocean from London to New York.
    0:50:39 And what we’ve seen is that they have these concerns
    0:50:40 over these tariffs.
    0:50:42 And so they need to get gold out of London
    0:50:47 and into America as quickly as possible.
    0:50:50 I’m not sure how important it is in global markets,
    0:50:52 but it’s certainly an interesting visual.
    0:50:56 Could you just explain how this strategy is playing out
    0:50:59 and why it is important that the banks do this?
    0:51:04 – Yeah, it’s chaotic and it won’t last a long time.
    0:51:08 That’s that type of frenzy, that type of activity.
    0:51:10 There are historical examples of that.
    0:51:13 One of the causes of huge market dislocations
    0:51:16 throughout history has historically been the movement
    0:51:19 of gold from one country to another
    0:51:23 or from the rest of the country back to New York.
    0:51:28 Like we’ve had instances where they closed
    0:51:32 the New York Stock Exchange heading into World War I.
    0:51:34 And one of the main concerns is
    0:51:36 all of the gold was about to be sucked out
    0:51:40 of the banks in New York and sent to England
    0:51:45 to finance the prosecution of that war against Germany.
    0:51:49 And they wanted to preempt the chaos
    0:51:52 that that kind of thing had historically caused.
    0:51:56 And you have these situations that have arisen in the past
    0:52:00 where just the seasonal pattern in the springtime,
    0:52:03 America 100 years ago is very agrarian economy.
    0:52:05 Everything was about agriculture and farming.
    0:52:07 So you’d have all the gold leave the banks
    0:52:09 in Boston, New York, Philadelphia,
    0:52:11 and it would head to the Midwest
    0:52:13 and it would be dispersed amongst the farmers
    0:52:17 who had to, it would show up in the banks in rural America.
    0:52:22 The farmers would then be able to fund the costs of seed
    0:52:24 and equipment and hiring farmhands
    0:52:27 and people who would help them plant.
    0:52:29 And then the summer would go by,
    0:52:32 there would be specula, the gold would return back
    0:52:34 to New York, all that gold would lead to,
    0:52:36 there being excess capital,
    0:52:39 that excess capital would lead to these huge booms
    0:52:42 in the stock market and people speculating
    0:52:44 with the money while it was there.
    0:52:47 And then all of a sudden the banks in rural America
    0:52:48 would call that gold back
    0:52:50 because it was time to bring in the harvest.
    0:52:53 And you would have the seasonal pattern that resulted
    0:52:56 in us saying things like sell in May, go away,
    0:52:59 or you would see like October being this month
    0:53:02 where all of a sudden all hell would break loose
    0:53:05 on Wall Street because the gold would leave
    0:53:08 these financial centers where all this trading
    0:53:11 and you would have this literal dearth of liquidity.
    0:53:15 And you would have this drop off in money and in capital
    0:53:19 and it kind of became ingrained in the patterns
    0:53:22 of stock markets and business and commerce.
    0:53:25 We’ve been able to neutralize that over time
    0:53:27 as society has become less agrarian
    0:53:29 and we don’t really have that every October
    0:53:33 the market crashes because the farmers need their gold back.
    0:53:35 Like that’s not the way the economy runs now.
    0:53:38 So it is interesting when you see something like this,
    0:53:41 all of a sudden people are flying their gold
    0:53:44 across the Atlantic to get it from one country to another.
    0:53:47 It’s chaotic activity, it’s kind of a throwback
    0:53:49 to the way the economy used to function
    0:53:53 when everything was on a gold standard and it’s weird.
    0:53:57 And I guess I would tell you not as an investor
    0:53:59 to react to that type of thing
    0:54:03 because it’s not likely to be a long lived phenomenon.
    0:54:06 – Yeah, it certainly feels very apocalyptic
    0:54:10 and it’s very interesting that gold has this association
    0:54:15 with geopolitics and inflation but really just panic.
    0:54:18 It’s like when the world starts to look like it’s crumbling
    0:54:20 suddenly people start to be interested in gold.
    0:54:22 – Emotional volatility.
    0:54:26 – Exactly and I would just like to get your final reaction
    0:54:29 to this ’cause we had Ray Dalio on the podcast
    0:54:34 and it was very interesting because he was very concerned
    0:54:38 about the world from a geopolitical perspective.
    0:54:40 And I think a lot of people are very concerned
    0:54:41 about the world geopolitically.
    0:54:44 I mean, I think back to what Jamie Dimon said
    0:54:46 in the most recent earnings call where he said
    0:54:50 that we are in the most unstable geopolitical time
    0:54:52 since World War II.
    0:54:54 And Ray Dalio basically told us,
    0:54:58 if I would put my money into anything, it would be gold.
    0:55:01 And my reaction, I think is similar to yours,
    0:55:04 which is, is this really worth the panic?
    0:55:08 And if we are to panic to the extent
    0:55:10 that these people say we should,
    0:55:13 what is buying gold gonna do for us?
    0:55:16 Is that really gonna solve our problems?
    0:55:19 So I guess I’d be interested to get your view on gold
    0:55:22 from a geopolitical perspective.
    0:55:23 Does Ray Dalio’s view make sense to you?
    0:55:26 – I think gold probably can get to 5,000,
    0:55:27 just purely on momentum alone
    0:55:29 because a lot of people are worried
    0:55:30 and there are a lot of reasons to be worried.
    0:55:33 It’s not completely invalid.
    0:55:36 I think during the course of the Trump administration,
    0:55:38 if you told me this all ends
    0:55:42 with some major geopolitical conflagration
    0:55:44 and gold runs up to 5,000,
    0:55:48 I would say that’s completely within the realm of things
    0:55:50 that could be expected.
    0:55:54 So I don’t disagree with Ray Dalio,
    0:55:57 except in the utility of it.
    0:56:00 So World War III, we’re gonna fight China over Taiwan
    0:56:03 and Russia over Western Europe simultaneously.
    0:56:06 The fuck are you gonna do with your gold ETF?
    0:56:08 – I’d rather own a farm and food, yeah.
    0:56:12 – Bullets, motherfucker, what are you gonna do?
    0:56:17 Oh, but look, I’m long gold miners, don’t shoot.
    0:56:21 The only currency in these worst-case scenarios
    0:56:24 will be like the backbreaking labor
    0:56:27 that you have the muscle tone to accomplish
    0:56:29 on behalf of whomever is enslaving you.
    0:56:30 – And it won’t be Bitcoin?
    0:56:31 – You want me to spare you?
    0:56:34 Don’t tell me about what’s in your Roth IRA.
    0:56:36 Remember what I told you at the start of this.
    0:56:38 Think about what could go right.
    0:56:41 And worst-case scenarios very rarely play out.
    0:56:43 And if they do, in this case,
    0:56:46 think about the things that we’re talking about.
    0:56:50 Talking about multiple nuclear powers
    0:56:54 potentially being goaded into a conflict here.
    0:56:58 Nothing you do in your portfolio is gonna help you, okay?
    0:57:03 So even if you bet on the worst-case scenario,
    0:57:07 if it comes to pass, who are you gonna collect from?
    0:57:08 Who’s paying out on that bet
    0:57:12 if we’re all squatting around a fire eating a squirrel?
    0:57:17 So I view my role in this is to understand the risks
    0:57:21 and try to help people process them
    0:57:23 and try to give people the context
    0:57:28 that risk is omnipresent, ever-present.
    0:57:30 It’s always a thing that exists.
    0:57:34 We feel it more acutely in some moments than in others.
    0:57:36 But honestly, it’s usually in those moments
    0:57:37 where everything feels great,
    0:57:42 that the big risks are really about to arrive.
    0:57:44 And it’s really the thing that we’re all worried about
    0:57:46 that actually ends up going wrong.
    0:57:48 – Let’s take a look at the week ahead.
    0:57:51 We’ll see data on the personal consumption expenditures
    0:57:52 index for January.
    0:57:55 We’ll also see earnings from Salesforce,
    0:57:58 Dell, Berkshire Hathaway, and Nvidia,
    0:58:00 which will be a huge one.
    0:58:02 Josh, this is a part of the show
    0:58:05 where I ask Scott for a prediction.
    0:58:09 No pressure, but do you have any predictions
    0:58:11 or is there anything that you’re thinking about
    0:58:12 in the next couple of months or so
    0:58:15 that you think that our listeners
    0:58:16 might want to keep an eye on in the markets?
    0:58:19 – I think Nvidia reports and hits a new all-time high.
    0:58:21 Yeah, there’s a lot of skepticism
    0:58:23 going into this earnings report.
    0:58:25 There has been for a while on Nvidia.
    0:58:28 The stock doesn’t always rally after the report earnings.
    0:58:30 Sometimes it rallies into the earnings.
    0:58:33 In this case, it’s kind of been stagnant for a while.
    0:58:35 I think the conversation is starting to pivot
    0:58:37 from large language models
    0:58:40 and it’s starting to go more toward physical AI,
    0:58:43 automation and robots.
    0:58:47 And I think Nvidia’s got the most compelling case
    0:58:51 for why they will be at the forefront of all of these things
    0:58:54 than any other company in existence.
    0:58:56 And I think that’ll come through
    0:58:58 in the remarks Jensen Wang makes.
    0:59:01 I’m a long-term shareholder here in Nvidia.
    0:59:03 I’ve owned the stock since 2015.
    0:59:05 So of course, I’m biased.
    0:59:08 I would also point out everyone owns Nvidia at this point.
    0:59:12 It’s the number one or two largest waiting in the S&P 500.
    0:59:15 If you have a pension, if you have a 401k, if you–
    0:59:16 – 2015 is early.
    0:59:18 – I was extremely early to the story
    0:59:23 and very publicly so talking about the stock on television
    0:59:25 every week for 10 years.
    0:59:28 It has been a once in a lifetime stock.
    0:59:31 It’s up 10,000% in that period of time.
    0:59:33 If I lived another 100 years,
    0:59:35 I’d probably never see anything like it again.
    0:59:38 And I don’t think it can continue to rise
    0:59:40 at the rate that it has.
    0:59:43 But the reality is it’s just not that expensive of a stock
    0:59:45 because as much as the share price has gone up,
    0:59:49 the earnings have gone up as much, if not more.
    0:59:53 So I think it’ll be a good conference call.
    0:59:56 I’m hoping to get a positive reaction after.
    0:59:57 My prediction is that we will,
    0:59:59 but who knows, anything can happen.
    1:00:01 – Josh Brown is the co-founder and CEO
    1:00:03 of Ritholt’s Wealth Management,
    1:00:05 a New York City-based investment advisory firm
    1:00:07 managing more than $5 billion in assets
    1:00:11 for individuals, corporate retirement plans and foundations.
    1:00:14 Josh, just an absolute pleasure as always.
    1:00:15 Thank you so much for coming on.
    1:00:17 – Thank you so much for having me, Ed.
    1:00:18 Appreciate it.
    1:00:21 – This episode was produced by Claire Miller
    1:00:23 and engineered by Benjamin Spencer.
    1:00:24 Our associate producer is Alison Weiss.
    1:00:26 Mia Silverio is our research lead.
    1:00:28 Isabella Kinsel is our research associate.
    1:00:30 Drew Burroughs is our technical director
    1:00:32 and Catherine Dillon is our executive producer.
    1:00:34 Thank you for listening to “ProfG Markets”
    1:00:36 from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
    1:00:40 Join us on Thursday for our conversation with Mike Moffat,
    1:00:41 only on “ProfG Markets.”
    1:00:47 ♪ Lifetimes ♪
    1:00:55 ♪ You help me ♪
    1:01:00 ♪ In kind reunion ♪
    1:01:07 ♪ As the world turns ♪
    1:01:12 ♪ And the dark lights ♪
    1:01:15 ♪ And love, love, love, love ♪
    1:01:18 (upbeat music)

    Follow Prof G Markets:

    Ed and Josh Brown, co-founder and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, open the show by discussing January’s housing starts data, X’s latest funding round, and the growing wave of companies emulating MicroStrategy’s approach to bitcoin. Then Josh unpacks the potential breakup of Intel. He breaks down how Intel’s leadership struggles led to its decline and explains why having a true visionary at the helm is crucial for a chip company. Josh and Ed also break down gold’s record-breaking surge and explain why banks are rushing to fly the commodity into the U.S. Ed questions whether gold is really a smart investment, while Josh explains why owning it outright might not be as valuable as people think.

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  • No Mercy / No Malice: DOGE: What Can Be Done?

    AI transcript
    0:00:02 – Okay, business leaders, are you here to play
    0:00:04 or are you playing to win?
    0:00:07 If you’re in it to win, meet your next MVP.
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    0:00:25 Get the CFO’s guide to AI and machine learning
    0:00:30 at netsuite.com/vox. NetSuite.com/vox.
    0:00:34 – If you know this sound, I have some good news for you.
    0:00:36 The 2026 lineup is here.
    0:00:40 And if you don’t know this sound, it’s all right.
    0:00:41 You have a good day.
    0:00:45 Discover the new Skidoo models now.
    0:00:47 (upbeat music)
    0:00:51 – It’s a busy week in the tech world.
    0:00:52 There’s a new iPhone.
    0:00:56 The most hyped gadget of 2024 is already dead
    0:00:58 and it’s only February of 2025.
    0:00:59 Meta is up to stuff.
    0:01:01 Elon Musk is up to stuff.
    0:01:03 There’s a new Alexa coming out next week.
    0:01:05 It’s early in the year,
    0:01:07 but there’s an awful lot going on in tech.
    0:01:10 And we’re talking about all of that and much more,
    0:01:12 including a lot of thoughts about speakers
    0:01:15 on The Vergecast, wherever you get podcasts.
    0:01:22 – I’m Scott Galloway and this is No Mercy, No Malice.
    0:01:24 We are in the midst, in my view,
    0:01:27 of a digital coup of the US government.
    0:01:30 Some thoughts on fighting back.
    0:01:33 What can be done as read by George Hahn.
    0:01:45 – I’ve struggled my entire career
    0:01:48 to discern the difference between being right
    0:01:50 and being effective.
    0:01:54 A recent poll shows many moderates favor effective,
    0:01:58 move fast, break things, overwrite checks and balances.
    0:02:01 Autocracies are seductive.
    0:02:04 In the short term, they seem effective.
    0:02:06 A third of Americans on both sides
    0:02:09 of the political spectrum favor an autocrat
    0:02:13 as long as he, let’s be honest, it’s always a he,
    0:02:16 is aligned with their views.
    0:02:19 Many or most Americans thus far
    0:02:20 don’t feel life is any different
    0:02:22 under the new administration.
    0:02:25 And they like the idea of taking swift action
    0:02:28 against problems they believe have spiraled out of control.
    0:02:33 Border crossings, government largesse, woke ideology.
    0:02:37 The blitzkrieg of threatening to invade allies,
    0:02:40 renaming bodies of water and surrendering to Putin
    0:02:43 has left many Americans, especially Democrats,
    0:02:46 flat footed, waiting for the outrage.
    0:02:50 If you believe that democracy should not surrender
    0:02:52 as Trump is urging Ukraine to do,
    0:02:55 then the seminal question is what to do?
    0:02:58 Honest answer, I don’t know.
    0:03:01 However, I do have some ideas.
    0:03:06 Nobody had Elon Musk as master of coin
    0:03:09 on their 2024 election bingo card.
    0:03:12 Seizing the levers of the federal payment system
    0:03:14 was strategic and elegant
    0:03:17 as it gave the White House a single point of control
    0:03:20 with influence over government priorities and policies
    0:03:23 via control of money flows.
    0:03:27 I do something similar when my sons are misbehaving.
    0:03:30 Rather than attempting to parent hard,
    0:03:33 I just remotely shut off their phone’s internet access.
    0:03:36 Department of dad energy, dode.
    0:03:42 With the seizure of power and money is power,
    0:03:45 Musk can reward friends, punish enemies,
    0:03:47 impose his political will,
    0:03:51 and effectively delete government agencies and departments
    0:03:53 by shutting off funding without worrying
    0:03:55 about pesky constitutional oversight.
    0:03:59 This is techno authoritarianism.
    0:04:03 Musk’s dominion encompasses the public and private sectors,
    0:04:07 physical and digital realms, and even space.
    0:04:14 In a 2007 essay, Musk ally and doge co-architect Peter Thiel
    0:04:18 argued for a new Alexander the Great,
    0:04:20 i.e. a king or dictator
    0:04:24 to cut the Gordian knot of our age.
    0:04:27 The chief obstacle according to Thiel,
    0:04:31 America’s constitutional machinery.
    0:04:36 Thiel wrote, quote, by setting ambition against ambition
    0:04:39 with an elaborate system of checks and balances,
    0:04:41 it prevents any single ambitious person
    0:04:44 from restructuring the old republic, unquote.
    0:04:47 My pivot co-star, Kara Swisher,
    0:04:50 described this mentality as, quote,
    0:04:52 let’s wipe the slate clean,
    0:04:56 then we’ll build the civilization we want, unquote.
    0:04:59 The problem, a plurality of American citizens
    0:05:04 did not vote for this vision, much less these individuals.
    0:05:07 Trump won.
    0:05:10 In our system, the ideas he campaigned on
    0:05:12 can now become policy,
    0:05:15 assuming he has the votes in Congress.
    0:05:19 Musk is the most powerful vice president in history,
    0:05:22 and he wasn’t even elected.
    0:05:25 See the time cover of Musk behind the Resolute Desk,
    0:05:28 followed by that surreal Oval Office press conference
    0:05:31 where Trump played the role of geriatric bystander
    0:05:33 to Musk’s policy Blitzkrieg.
    0:05:36 I believe when their giddiness
    0:05:39 regarding owning the libtards subsides,
    0:05:41 Republicans in Congress will realize
    0:05:44 they have created a monster they can no longer control.
    0:05:50 Musk’s digital coup subjugates the right as much as the left.
    0:05:53 His attempt to hijack the government
    0:05:55 also hijacks the MAGA agenda.
    0:05:58 By the way, at some point,
    0:06:02 Americans will realize the conservative progressive battle
    0:06:04 is a misdirect.
    0:06:07 The real fulcrum where the battle is being waged
    0:06:11 is up down, rich versus not rich.
    0:06:16 The wealthy in corporations whom Trump and Musk listen to
    0:06:19 will put up largely symbolic resistance
    0:06:22 to an emerging autocracy.
    0:06:24 They aren’t going to suffer
    0:06:27 as the world now offers civil rights for sale.
    0:06:30 The 1% can move anywhere by influence
    0:06:33 and ensure everybody in their circle
    0:06:35 has access to myth or pristone.
    0:06:40 The savings from Doge are again a misdirect
    0:06:43 from an enormous tax increase on today’s youth
    0:06:45 via the deficits we’ll register
    0:06:47 if Trump’s tax cuts go through.
    0:06:53 I know a lot of very wealthy tech executives and financiers.
    0:06:57 The key to their wealth, yes, much of it is luck,
    0:07:00 not their fault, and much of it is talent.
    0:07:05 However, the real secret sauce is a focus.
    0:07:09 The acquisition of wealth is an obsession
    0:07:12 for the, wait for it, wealthy.
    0:07:16 Pro tip, anybody speaking at a university who claims
    0:07:21 they never thought much about money is obsessed with it.
    0:07:24 The rights defense of Musk
    0:07:29 that Doge is some patriotic gesture is laughable.
    0:07:34 His focus and his only focus is becoming a trillionaire.
    0:07:39 His volunteerism is an attempt to clear the obstacles
    0:07:41 between him and greater wealth,
    0:07:45 specifically regulators and fair play.
    0:07:49 Musk cultists often offer the same aw shucks
    0:07:52 he can’t help himself, he’s so authentic rap,
    0:07:54 when he says or tweets weird, reckless,
    0:07:56 and just plain stupid things.
    0:08:00 However, his id is always in check
    0:08:04 when it comes to saying anything about China,
    0:08:08 where officials likely feel they have leverage over Musk.
    0:08:12 So measured, so thoughtful, so disciplined,
    0:08:15 so obsessed with money.
    0:08:20 He recognizes he doesn’t enjoy the umbrella protection
    0:08:22 of the First Amendment in China,
    0:08:24 and accusing a member of the CCP
    0:08:27 of being a sex criminal, his go-to,
    0:08:30 would likely result in swift economic retribution.
    0:08:34 He may or may not suffer from Asperger’s,
    0:08:38 but he definitely suffers from being an asshole.
    0:08:40 And by the way, for those of you bots
    0:08:42 waiting to fill the comments section
    0:08:47 with cries of TDS or an obsession with Musk, you’re wrong.
    0:08:50 I’ve been clinically diagnosed with DAS,
    0:08:53 Democracy Addiction Syndrome,
    0:08:56 and bitches, after four weeks of this nonsense,
    0:09:00 incompetence, surrender, my affliction is spreading.
    0:09:04 If it’s possible to hold our government hostage
    0:09:06 by capturing the federal payment system,
    0:09:10 then we need to work upstream of Musk’s choke point.
    0:09:12 Already, the Treasury Department
    0:09:16 has exhausted roughly 60% of the extraordinary measures
    0:09:21 at its disposal to delay a default on our bonds.
    0:09:24 The rates on the 10-year Treasury bill, however,
    0:09:28 indicate that Congress will raise the debt ceiling
    0:09:32 as both parties have done 78 times since 1960.
    0:09:36 But what if Democrats refuse?
    0:09:42 A dozen GOP senators and 49 House Republicans,
    0:09:44 more than 20% of each conference,
    0:09:49 have never previously voted to raise the debt ceiling.
    0:09:52 Democrats have a strong stand here.
    0:09:55 If they credibly threaten default,
    0:09:58 rates on the 10-year T bill will increase
    0:10:01 and equities will likely suffer.
    0:10:04 This will be painful, but the pain
    0:10:08 will primarily fall on the 1% in corporations,
    0:10:11 i.e. those who own 90% of assets
    0:10:14 and have influence over Trump.
    0:10:18 In effect, the markets could do what Congress won’t.
    0:10:22 Rain in Trump, kick Musk to the curb,
    0:10:27 and demand the U.S. remain a nation of laws.
    0:10:31 In March, the government will run out of money
    0:10:33 unless Congress acts.
    0:10:35 If the government shuts down,
    0:10:37 roughly three million federal workers
    0:10:39 will stop receiving paychecks.
    0:10:44 Stiffing the military, air traffic controllers,
    0:10:48 and people who keep our food and water safe is stupid.
    0:10:51 It hurts them and us.
    0:10:54 At the moment, however, a sleep-deprived,
    0:10:58 alleged ketamine abuser who makes Nazi salutes
    0:11:00 is cutting off funding for programs he dislikes
    0:11:04 and promising buyouts to federal workers
    0:11:06 with money that isn’t there.
    0:11:09 Hakim Jeffries is correct when he says
    0:11:12 there’s little Democrats can do legislatively
    0:11:15 to stop President Musk.
    0:11:17 But Democrats shouldn’t do anything legislatively
    0:11:20 to enable him either.
    0:11:24 Here again, Democrats have a decent hand
    0:11:27 to extract concessions as a shutdown
    0:11:30 is upstream of Musk’s power.
    0:11:33 Musk’s wealth is the source of his power
    0:11:36 and his main point of vulnerability.
    0:11:39 One third of his wealth is tied up in Tesla stock,
    0:11:42 which briefly rose after the election
    0:11:45 as the market priced in kleptocracy,
    0:11:49 but has plunged 30% since December.
    0:11:52 I sold my Tesla a few years ago.
    0:11:55 I’m not down with accusing innocence of sex crimes.
    0:11:57 Note, Musk won his defamation case,
    0:12:00 but there is no dispute over what he said.
    0:12:04 And making Nazi salutes, call me a reactionary.
    0:12:08 Protests at Tesla locations across the U.S.
    0:12:10 indicate that others feel similarly.
    0:12:15 Tesla’s brand value dropped 26% year over year,
    0:12:19 due primarily to Musk entering the political arena.
    0:12:20 His behavior in Europe,
    0:12:24 where he endorsed Germany’s far-right neo-Nazi party,
    0:12:26 stoked a race ride in the U.K.
    0:12:29 and stands accused of manipulating algorithms on X
    0:12:33 to influence public discourse in France,
    0:12:35 has hurt Tesla sales.
    0:12:39 In China, Tesla’s second largest market,
    0:12:42 sales are down 11% year over year,
    0:12:45 while last month BYD sold four times
    0:12:48 the number of EVs Tesla did.
    0:12:52 Musk’s politics are bad for America.
    0:12:54 We need to make them bad for his business.
    0:12:59 Musk once tweeted, quote,
    0:13:02 “Between Tesla, Starlink, and Twitter,
    0:13:05 I may have more real-time global economic data
    0:13:10 in one head than anyone ever,” unquote.
    0:13:16 Question, is it in America’s best interest for one man
    0:13:19 to have the combined power of Henry Ford,
    0:13:22 NASA, and William Randolph Hearst?
    0:13:25 Starlink is a great product,
    0:13:27 but the growing leverage it gives Musk
    0:13:30 over global communications is alarming.
    0:13:35 Already, Musk controls half the satellites in orbit.
    0:13:39 He plans to launch up to 58,000 more in the next five years
    0:13:41 and proposes to eventually increase
    0:13:44 that number to 500,000.
    0:13:48 In politics, the pendulum always swings back.
    0:13:52 Democrats should be clear that when they retake Congress,
    0:13:55 they will assess Musk’s dominance in satellites
    0:13:57 and instruct regulators to act
    0:14:00 in the interest of national security.
    0:14:02 Note, this is also good politics
    0:14:07 as Musk’s popularity is dropping, even among Republicans.
    0:14:09 Think of it as threatening to invade Greenland
    0:14:11 if Greenland was space.
    0:14:14 In the meantime, Senate Democrats
    0:14:19 can block government contracts Musk companies rely on
    0:14:21 by filibustering funding legislation
    0:14:25 as Republicans do not have a filibuster-proof majority.
    0:14:31 When I interviewed historian Nile Ferguson on my podcast,
    0:14:34 he said British politics is a game of cricket
    0:14:37 between people who went to Oxford,
    0:14:40 whereas American politics is a blood sport.
    0:14:43 I’d argue Nile misses some nuance.
    0:14:46 Recently, Democratic politics have felt like a stern game
    0:14:48 of bridge at the rest home.
    0:14:51 For MAGA, the coarseness of our discourse
    0:14:53 is a feature, not a bug.
    0:14:56 Musk and Trump understand this.
    0:14:59 They spew violent rhetoric and leverage political violence
    0:15:03 like January 6th because fear is a useful tool
    0:15:06 for keeping followers and opponents in line.
    0:15:10 Yesterday, a DOJ official began falsely accusing people
    0:15:13 of threats to Musk and his team
    0:15:14 and sending letters to officials
    0:15:19 to clarify their comments, i.e. intimidate them.
    0:15:22 Yeah, free speech, unless it’s our guys.
    0:15:28 This is an attempt to cast a chill on opposing speech
    0:15:32 and what can be described as the fascist hymn.
    0:15:35 Speaking of fascist hymns,
    0:15:37 The Wall Street Journal reported on February 19th
    0:15:41 that Linda Jacarino is now a brick in the fascist wall,
    0:15:44 threatening to leverage her dear leader’s influence
    0:15:47 to block the IPG Omnicom merger
    0:15:50 if they do not advertise on her platform.
    0:15:53 Despite credible threats,
    0:15:56 Trump has removed security details
    0:16:00 protecting his former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo,
    0:16:05 General Mark Milley, and Dr. Anthony Fauci, to name a few.
    0:16:09 In response, Democrats marched to a federal building
    0:16:12 and did their best impression of a senior’s facility
    0:16:14 when jello nights been canceled.
    0:16:17 Democrats should make it clear
    0:16:20 that when they return to power, Trump,
    0:16:23 and anyone also engaging in the digital coup
    0:16:26 will also lose their security detail.
    0:16:28 It’s about incentives.
    0:16:32 We need to move beyond the strongly worded letter.
    0:16:38 What I’ve outlined above is slow and incomplete
    0:16:40 compared to the speed and destructive force
    0:16:43 of a 19-year-old computer engineer high on Mountain Dew.
    0:16:48 My concern is for America, but I’ll be fine.
    0:16:51 The people who will pay a far greater price
    0:16:56 are Trump voters who believe this fight is for them.
    0:16:59 It’s not, it’s against them.
    0:17:01 Red states receive more federal funding
    0:17:04 than they pay in taxes.
    0:17:07 Republican leaders who are under the delusion
    0:17:10 they control the power of the purse and won
    0:17:13 are instead quietly expressing concerns
    0:17:16 over what doge cuts mean for their constituents.
    0:17:21 Dismantling USAID hurts Kansans
    0:17:23 who sell their crops to a government program
    0:17:25 that fights hunger abroad.
    0:17:29 NIH cuts threatened jobs in Alabama, Florida,
    0:17:33 Nebraska, and other red states.
    0:17:35 One of Louisiana’s Republican senators
    0:17:39 believes plans to gut the FBI will hurt his state.
    0:17:45 Cuts to the VA fall on a key Trump constituency
    0:17:48 as veterans skew Republican by two to one.
    0:17:52 Delete the Department of Education.
    0:17:55 Trump carried four of the top five states
    0:17:59 that received Title I funding for low income students,
    0:18:04 Louisiana, Mississippi, Arizona, and Alabama.
    0:18:08 Amid a chaotic transition,
    0:18:13 the White House mistakenly elevated the wrong person
    0:18:15 to acting FBI director.
    0:18:17 In any other administration,
    0:18:20 this kind of fuckup would have been endless fodder
    0:18:24 for comedians and congressional investigations.
    0:18:27 In this administration, it barely gets a footnote.
    0:18:33 Brian Driscoll, aka Driz, will likely be fired soon,
    0:18:37 but the G-Man’s response to an attack on his colleagues
    0:18:41 and the rule of law is a lesson in leadership
    0:18:46 and masculinity, defaulting to protection.
    0:18:49 By refusing to comply with an unlawful order
    0:18:52 to name the 6,000 plus FBI agents
    0:18:55 who worked on January 6th cases,
    0:18:58 Driz may have only delayed the inevitable,
    0:19:03 but he succeeded in sounding the alarm
    0:19:06 and stiffening the resolve of his peers.
    0:19:10 The lesson submitting to a second insurrection
    0:19:14 without a fight will only make the insurrectionist bolder,
    0:19:17 but fighting, even if we lose,
    0:19:21 weakens him as it inspires others to do the same.
    0:19:26 Think about this, a man who makes Nazi gestures
    0:19:30 owns the majority of satellites and space launch capacity
    0:19:34 and has usurped the power of the purse and Congress.
    0:19:38 The same man is openly threatening other companies
    0:19:40 with government retribution
    0:19:43 if they don’t spend money on his companies.
    0:19:49 Democrats and Republicans, this isn’t a time to come together,
    0:19:51 but to the rescue.
    0:19:56 Life is so rich.
    0:19:59 (gentle music)
    0:20:01 (gentle music)
    0:20:04 (gentle music)
    0:20:06 (soft music)
    0:20:16 [BLANK_AUDIO]

    As read by George Hahn.

    DOGE: What Can Be Done?

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  • Jay Shetty on Life, Love, and the Business of Podcasting

    AI transcript
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    0:01:43 >> Episode 337, 337 is Erica covering Southwestern Louisiana in 1937.
    0:01:47 J. R. R. Tolkien published The Hobbit, true story.
    0:01:49 My porn name was inspired by The Hobbit.
    0:01:51 Call me Dildo Baggins.
    0:02:01 [MUSIC]
    0:02:05 >> Okay, what’s going on?
    0:02:07 I am on vacation for the week.
    0:02:09 I am in Zermatt.
    0:02:10 Why am I in Zermatt?
    0:02:11 Because I can be.
    0:02:16 And that light at the end of the tunnel where my kids are no longer gonna be.
    0:02:20 I’m so freaked out about all this data around 90% of the time you’re gonna spend
    0:02:23 with your kids is before they’re 18 and my kids are barreling towards 18.
    0:02:30 So I’m spending most of my disposable time and money on spending time with them.
    0:02:32 Anyways, in place of our regular scheduled programming,
    0:02:34 we’re sharing a conversation with Jay Shetty,
    0:02:39 the host of the world’s number one mental health podcast on purpose.
    0:02:44 I found Jay to be really nice and soulful in what you would expect from someone who
    0:02:46 has the number one podcast on mental health.
    0:02:49 We discussed with Jay his journey from monk to media mogul.
    0:02:53 The business of podcasting and the key to personal growth and success.
    0:02:57 So with that, here’s our conversation with Jay Shetty.
    0:02:59 [MUSIC]
    0:03:01 Jay, where does this podcast find you?
    0:03:04 >> I’m at my home studio in LA.
    0:03:06 >> That’s right, I have been there.
    0:03:09 It’s like a little bird’s nest overlooking all of LA.
    0:03:14 Something that people consistently ask me in an age of AI and digital is,
    0:03:19 what is the key competence should young people be studying to find success in
    0:03:20 economic security?
    0:03:24 In my view, the only enduring skill is storytelling.
    0:03:27 And I think of you as someone who has mastered storytelling.
    0:03:31 I’d love to hear a little bit of the origin story around how you
    0:03:33 developed your skills as a storyteller.
    0:03:38 >> Wow, I don’t think I’ve ever been asked that before, I love that.
    0:03:39 So I don’t disagree with you.
    0:03:45 I think storytelling is such a powerful skill and such a powerful tool.
    0:03:51 My origins of storytelling, I’d have to go back to,
    0:03:54 wow, I’m really having to look for that.
    0:03:57 >> I’ll help, you were a consultant, right?
    0:03:59 >> Yeah, but it was long before that.
    0:04:02 I think, yeah, I found it, I found it, I found it.
    0:04:04 Thank you for that prompt, I found it.
    0:04:09 I was fascinated by autobiographies growing up.
    0:04:14 So I spent my teens in the pages of Martin Luther King,
    0:04:19 Malcolm X all the way through to David Beckham and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson.
    0:04:24 And I found myself just completely captivated by the real life stories,
    0:04:29 not just the medals, the awards, the successes, but the depression,
    0:04:33 the doubts, the fears, the pain that people had gone through.
    0:04:36 And to me, those stories moved me, they stayed with me.
    0:04:41 I, even till this day, if someone tells me something’s based on a true story,
    0:04:42 I want to watch it immediately.
    0:04:46 And so to me, my love for storytelling and my love for stories
    0:04:50 came from studying real life stories, true stories.
    0:04:54 I was never attracted to fiction as I was to non-fiction.
    0:04:59 I don’t, haven’t read much fiction in my life up until this point,
    0:05:00 unless someone really recommends something.
    0:05:05 And so my love for storytelling comes from hearing about the pains and
    0:05:06 challenges people went through.
    0:05:09 And there’s a famous quote that says,
    0:05:13 I’ve never seen a strong person with an easy past.
    0:05:19 And I really, truly believe that when we study the difficult, tumultuous,
    0:05:23 challenging pasts of people we admire,
    0:05:27 we in turn get the ability to build the strength, the resilience,
    0:05:31 and the confidence through their journey.
    0:05:34 You actually get to ask yourself, what would it look like?
    0:05:38 What does life look like for someone who’s aspiring towards great things?
    0:05:41 And going back to your point on what people are challenged by today,
    0:05:44 I think we don’t study the stories of the greats anymore.
    0:05:49 I don’t believe we dive into the pages of people who’ve come before us.
    0:05:55 We’re looking at what everyone is doing today right now in the moment on social media.
    0:06:01 We’re not looking at what they did 10, 20 years ago in their childhood bedroom,
    0:06:06 or in an interaction with a family member or whatever it may have been
    0:06:08 that is their defining moment.
    0:06:12 So I think we get lost, enamored by where they are today,
    0:06:14 where they live, what they drive, what they do.
    0:06:18 But you don’t see the foundations of how they got there.
    0:06:22 Was there a moment, an aha moment when you realized that you were good at it
    0:06:25 and that you might be able to make a living at it?
    0:06:31 I enjoyed it when I started speaking at colleges
    0:06:35 and speaking to small groups in London.
    0:06:37 I realized that I really enjoyed it.
    0:06:40 I really was fulfilled by it.
    0:06:43 But to me, it felt like something I would have to do on the weekends and evenings
    0:06:50 because I didn’t know anyone in the world who could make a living off of it personally.
    0:06:53 So I really believed that I would have to work a real day job,
    0:06:55 being a consultant at the time.
    0:06:58 And on top of that, I would do this on the evenings and weekends
    0:07:00 because it’s what fulfilled me,
    0:07:03 especially because what I would talk about was eastern wisdom,
    0:07:07 which at the time especially was extremely niche, very small.
    0:07:11 Even till this day, I think it’s still making its waves into the mainstream.
    0:07:16 But eastern wisdom was something that was not high demand.
    0:07:20 And so I was very much ready and set for the life
    0:07:24 that I would work my day job that paid the bills.
    0:07:27 And on the evenings and weekends, I would do something that was meaningful to me.
    0:07:32 It was only when I made my first set of videos.
    0:07:38 And my hope was I was doing events where maybe 5, 10, 20 people would show up.
    0:07:43 And I was thinking, “Wow, if I did this video and maybe 100 people would be affected by it,
    0:07:45 how amazing would that be?”
    0:07:49 And it was only when my first four videos, when shared by The Huffington Post,
    0:07:54 did something like 250 million views across platforms,
    0:07:57 did I really believe that there was some momentum behind the message?
    0:08:01 But at one point in my life, I had roughly 250 million views
    0:08:03 and I was four months away from being broke.
    0:08:07 So it took me a long time to realize that there was something real here.
    0:08:10 And I think a big part of that is because I just never knew anyone
    0:08:17 who had built a career out of sharing wisdom, telling stories and sharing insights.
    0:08:20 I didn’t know anyone in my personal life.
    0:08:22 And what was the first medium where you monetized it?
    0:08:24 Was it books, videos, podcasts?
    0:08:27 Like, give us the universe of Shetty.
    0:08:32 Like, how have you figured out how you built a small, what feels like a small media empire?
    0:08:34 Like, where, what is the flywheel here?
    0:08:36 What do you do for awareness?
    0:08:42 What do you do for, you know, academic heft or intellectual heft?
    0:08:43 And how do you monetize it all?
    0:08:48 Yeah, so I made videos for two years before I could actually monetize them online
    0:08:52 because I started primarily on Facebook.
    0:08:56 My videos were posted to YouTube at the time, but we didn’t have ads turned on.
    0:08:58 And then I was working for the Huffington Post.
    0:09:02 So I was a salary employee while making content for their platforms.
    0:09:06 And then when I left and I was making content for my own platforms,
    0:09:09 Facebook didn’t allow you to monetize until 2018.
    0:09:12 And I started making videos in 2016 or something like that.
    0:09:18 And so those first two years, I was just making videos because it was what I loved doing.
    0:09:21 It’s what I enjoyed. It’s what was so meaningful.
    0:09:26 And 2018, that shifted when Facebook was able to build their monetization.
    0:09:31 And so that became a very early form of monetization, of storytelling.
    0:09:34 And that was videos I was creating anyway.
    0:09:38 It was amazing. We were making videos that were getting hundreds of millions of views at the time.
    0:09:42 It’s really, really a special time in connecting with so many people.
    0:09:47 At the same time, I was learning from my audience what they wanted from me.
    0:09:52 And what I found was that a lot of people wanted coaching and meditations and insights.
    0:09:56 And they wanted to learn these practices.
    0:09:57 And so two things came from that.
    0:10:01 One was we launched my Genius app and my Genius community,
    0:10:05 which was a membership platform, a membership platform that exists today,
    0:10:08 seven years on since we launched it,
    0:10:15 where every single week I’m live wherever I am in the world for 40 minutes teaching a workshop.
    0:10:18 So I was just in Mexico for a friend’s weekend this weekend.
    0:10:20 And I’m live on the channel.
    0:10:24 And this week I’ll be in LA and I’m live on the channel, wherever I’m in the world.
    0:10:27 I’ll be live 52 weeks a year.
    0:10:31 And we found that to just build an amazing connection with my community.
    0:10:35 And it was built on the three practices that I believe are needed for transformation.
    0:10:39 So there’s coaching, consistency and community.
    0:10:43 I believe that if you want to change an area of your life, you need all three.
    0:10:46 And most of us are trying to change our life with just one.
    0:10:49 So if you have coaching, it means you know what to do.
    0:10:52 But if you don’t have consistency, you don’t know how to repeat it.
    0:10:57 And if you don’t have community, you won’t be inspired and motivated to keep going.
    0:11:01 If you only have community, you have lots of people around you that want to get there.
    0:11:04 But you don’t have coaching, you don’t know where you’re going.
    0:11:07 And if you don’t have consistency, you don’t have the habit building.
    0:11:12 And so Genius, my app was built around coaching, consistency and community.
    0:11:16 And we’ve had thousands of members from over 140 countries in the world
    0:11:19 that are members of that platform.
    0:11:20 And then I saw the value in meditation.
    0:11:25 And I was getting a lot of mentions from a lot of friends of mine
    0:11:29 that at the same time, 2016, 2018, around those times,
    0:11:31 there was this app that was having this massive impact.
    0:11:33 It was called Calm.
    0:11:35 Of course, everyone knows it now.
    0:11:38 And a lot of my friends were telling me about Calm.
    0:11:42 And a lot of other people were telling the founders of Calm about me and my work.
    0:11:44 And everyone kept telling us we should meet.
    0:11:46 So I met with the founders of Calm.
    0:11:50 I think probably the first time in 2018, somewhere like that,
    0:11:54 with Michael and Alex, who went on to become very good friends.
    0:12:00 And I love their vision of making meditation and mindfulness
    0:12:03 available in the most accessible, relevant, practical ways.
    0:12:06 So they have meditation stories read by Matthew McConaughey
    0:12:10 or meditation series by LeBron James.
    0:12:14 And so we built together something that they wanted to call the Daily J,
    0:12:20 which is where people can listen to me for seven minutes every single day,
    0:12:22 five days a week for the last three years.
    0:12:27 And that program was around, you know, $42 a year for the subscription.
    0:12:30 So that became an amazing, amazing investment in my time and energy,
    0:12:35 where we scripted a unique meditation that last seven minutes was seven minutes
    0:12:39 because we wanted to create something that you could do while washing the dishes,
    0:12:42 doing the laundry, drying your clothes.
    0:12:46 You could do it while packing your breakfast in the morning, whatever it was.
    0:12:50 We wanted to create a meditation that you could practice on top of your already busy life.
    0:12:54 And that’s had tens of millions of downloads now, that meditation series.
    0:12:59 So I found myself partnering with amazing brands that I was proud to be a part of.
    0:13:02 I found myself creating ventures like Genius.
    0:13:07 And then, of course, as we went and built the podcast, which we launched in 2019,
    0:13:09 that’s an interesting story in and of itself,
    0:13:14 because I invested everything I had in 2018 to launch the podcast in 2019,
    0:13:21 put all the money I had into production, you know, editing, all of that kind of stuff.
    0:13:24 And for anyone who’s launched a podcast, you know,
    0:13:27 you can’t monetize for the first six to 12 months
    0:13:32 because you have to have a consistent record of downloads and data.
    0:13:37 And so we didn’t start monetizing the podcast probably until late 2019, early 2020.
    0:13:40 But that turned out to be one of the best investments in my life
    0:13:42 because of the success of the podcast that we’ve had now.
    0:13:48 So I looked at everything from partnerships, platforms, and all of it came from a place of passion.
    0:13:54 I did the podcast because I had people in my life that I was coaching clients or friends
    0:13:57 that I was having these amazing offline conversations with.
    0:14:00 And I thought, how amazing would it be to have them online?
    0:14:03 The CarMap was because I loved what they were building.
    0:14:06 And I’m so grateful to be the Chief Purpose Officer of CarM.
    0:14:08 And then Genius was a need.
    0:14:10 Our audience was saying, Jay, I want you to coach me.
    0:14:12 I want your insight in my life.
    0:14:14 And so all of it was built around passions.
    0:14:19 We got so many other offers for me to build everything from apps
    0:14:23 that I didn’t want to build through to this field and that industry.
    0:14:26 We said no to so many things because they weren’t things we were passionate about.
    0:14:29 I think there were plenty more opportunities that we’ve said no to
    0:14:31 than the ones we said yes to.
    0:14:35 So you’re both in subscription and ad supported.
    0:14:37 Do you have any advice?
    0:14:41 I mean, we are constantly, it feels like every three or six months,
    0:14:45 we toy with the idea of putting some, some or all of our content behind a paywall.
    0:14:48 Because sometimes you read an ad and you think, I mean,
    0:14:51 for example, we no longer do crypto ads because I read this ad.
    0:14:54 And I think I don’t have the time to do diligence on this.
    0:14:56 And I just don’t, it just doesn’t feel right.
    0:15:01 And I actually enjoy some of the ad reads, but we always toy with the idea.
    0:15:04 Wouldn’t it be nice to kind of go more artisanal?
    0:15:06 I have a lot of respect for Sam Harris.
    0:15:08 I know you’ve built a big subscription business.
    0:15:13 Break down the pluses and the minuses in your view of kind of the ad supported model
    0:15:14 and the subscription model.
    0:15:16 And do you have a preference for one or the other?
    0:15:22 I’d say that to me, when I look at anything, I have a three step checking system.
    0:15:25 So whether we’re choosing an ad partner to come on our platform,
    0:15:27 whether we’re looking at a partnership.
    0:15:31 And it’s always been called ESM and the E stands for energy.
    0:15:35 The first thing I look at is, do I think we’re energetically matched?
    0:15:38 So when I met Michael Acton Smith and Alex, who founded calm,
    0:15:40 I really liked those guys.
    0:15:40 They’re great people.
    0:15:43 And so if I can, I’m always trying to sense energy.
    0:15:45 I loved it when you came into the studio.
    0:15:46 I thought we hit it off.
    0:15:48 I hope we can do lots more together.
    0:15:51 I’m someone who likes to live in an energetic space.
    0:15:53 The second is strategy.
    0:15:57 Do I really believe now that we’ve passed through the gate of energy,
    0:16:04 do I really believe that strategically this partner, this brand, this idea
    0:16:06 whether it be a venture, is it strategically accurate?
    0:16:08 Do we actually believe this has a plan?
    0:16:10 Does it strategically make sense?
    0:16:13 Does it have, do we understand the market?
    0:16:14 Do we understand demand?
    0:16:16 And I always do that second.
    0:16:19 And that’s an important second gate for it to pass through.
    0:16:21 And the M stands for money.
    0:16:25 Finally, financially, does this stack up in terms of my investment in time,
    0:16:29 in terms of what I believe our value is, that person’s value is,
    0:16:31 are we aligned financially?
    0:16:33 And so to me, ESM has always been my model.
    0:16:37 And because I think in initial times, the energy would be great
    0:16:39 and you just rush into a relationship.
    0:16:42 And it’s almost like bad dating where like,
    0:16:43 you’re like, oh, we energetically get along.
    0:16:45 We should build something together.
    0:16:47 And then, you know, three months down the line,
    0:16:48 you realize it wasn’t a good fit.
    0:16:53 And so ESM has protected me and helped me make better decisions,
    0:16:54 not that I’ve made perfect decisions,
    0:16:56 but it’s definitely been a supportive technique.
    0:17:00 When I look at both of the methods you’ve talked about,
    0:17:05 I love the fact that 99% of what I create is free.
    0:17:07 So the podcast is free.
    0:17:11 We post to Instagram every day for free.
    0:17:14 We post to YouTube every week for free.
    0:17:20 We, 99% of what we create on a yearly basis is absolutely free.
    0:17:22 Now, like you said, there’s an ads space there.
    0:17:24 Like we have ads on our podcast, of course,
    0:17:28 but they’re brands that we choose very intentionally
    0:17:31 and carefully through our research and the best we can.
    0:17:35 And that to me, I love because my goal
    0:17:37 was always making wisdom go viral.
    0:17:42 How can we make wisdom accessible, relevant,
    0:17:43 and practical to everyone?
    0:17:44 That’s where my true heart is.
    0:17:50 That’s what my joy is in knowing that someone in the middle
    0:17:54 of a country that I’ve never visited can watch my video
    0:17:55 and it can help them.
    0:17:56 That makes my day.
    0:17:57 Like that really fuels me.
    0:18:00 At the same time, what I found is that there were people
    0:18:04 who wanted to go deeper, who wanted to learn more,
    0:18:05 who wanted more commitment,
    0:18:08 the Genius app being a great membership platform.
    0:18:12 We found that those were people who wanted to commit
    0:18:15 an hour, two hours, three hours a week to do the work.
    0:18:18 Now, in order to give them something that’s of value,
    0:18:22 I also needed to put in more effort.
    0:18:24 I also needed to be able to build a platform.
    0:18:26 We have teams that are running all the behind the scenes.
    0:18:29 So if you ask me which one I prefer,
    0:18:31 the truth is I like both models.
    0:18:35 I think entrepreneurs should be open to both models
    0:18:38 because I think free is a great way to scale
    0:18:41 and membership is a great way for depth.
    0:18:43 And I value both scale and depth
    0:18:45 because scale allows me to reach someone
    0:18:47 who may never have a thought about wellness
    0:18:52 and depth allows me to reach people as deeply as I want to take them.
    0:18:55 And so to me, as someone who’s fascinated by both scale and depth,
    0:18:59 I’m not excited about the fact that someone listens to one episode
    0:19:00 and then never changes their life
    0:19:04 because I don’t believe that you’re going to transform your whole life
    0:19:06 without habits and community.
    0:19:09 At the same time, I’m not someone who’s just inspired
    0:19:11 by taking people on a long journey
    0:19:14 and not reaching people in the corners of the world.
    0:19:16 So my values are both scale and depth.
    0:19:19 And I believe there was a TED talk a few years ago
    0:19:21 that called it, I can’t remember who it was by,
    0:19:23 but it was called mass intimacy.
    0:19:26 So this idea of how do you scale an idea
    0:19:29 but then have really intimate experiences with people?
    0:19:31 So membership to me is intimacy
    0:19:33 and social media and podcasting is scale.
    0:19:36 And when you break that down further,
    0:19:41 what we realized after running genius for what was it at that time,
    0:19:45 probably like we were running genius for two to three years
    0:19:49 and we found that people needed to become leaders.
    0:19:52 So we launched my certification school
    0:19:56 because we found that now people who’d been through the program,
    0:19:57 they were saying, Jay, I want to be a part of this mission.
    0:19:59 I want to help others.
    0:20:00 I want to serve. I want to give back.
    0:20:01 I want to be involved.
    0:20:03 I don’t just want to be a student.
    0:20:05 I want to be a teacher and a leader.
    0:20:07 And so we built our certification platform
    0:20:09 to help people actually develop the skills.
    0:20:11 It’s a full 100 hour program.
    0:20:14 So a lot of our development of products and services
    0:20:17 has been based on listening to our community.
    0:20:19 And I think that’s what I would be doing
    0:20:21 when you’re making your decision
    0:20:24 is if you’re hearing people say, Scott,
    0:20:25 I really want a membership.
    0:20:26 Like I want to learn more from you.
    0:20:28 I want to have more access to you.
    0:20:30 I don’t just want you talking to all of us.
    0:20:33 I want you talking to a small group of us.
    0:20:36 I think it’s listening to your audience and community
    0:20:38 that makes us make amazing shifts.
    0:20:40 So for us, everything we’ve developed
    0:20:43 has been constantly, consciously listening intently
    0:20:46 to what our audience wants, what they need,
    0:20:47 how we can make it better.
    0:20:50 And I think that’s the fun of being a creator there.
    0:20:51 You’re not just building your vision.
    0:20:53 You’re building the vision that your audience wants.
    0:20:56 You’re also, I mean, you’re definitely,
    0:20:57 you’re going, in my sense, or what I’ve read
    0:20:58 is you’re going multi-channel.
    0:21:00 That you’re actually taking your podcast on tour.
    0:21:01 Is that correct?
    0:21:03 That’s right. Yeah. I’m so excited.
    0:21:06 It’s the first time we’ve ever taken the podcast on tour.
    0:21:12 So two years ago, I went on a nearly 40 city world tour,
    0:21:14 which was a one-man show led by myself.
    0:21:17 But this time, I’m actually going to interview guests on stage.
    0:21:21 And I just felt that the podcast is now, what, six years old?
    0:21:25 And it felt like the right time to go out there.
    0:21:26 And I was thinking, all these people are trusting us
    0:21:28 with their ears every day.
    0:21:30 And I was like, I want to meet the people
    0:21:31 who make on purpose what it is.
    0:21:33 I always say on my podcast,
    0:21:35 “Hey, if you see me on the streets, come and say hi.
    0:21:36 If you listen on purpose,
    0:21:38 tell me that you listen to the podcast.”
    0:21:39 And I get lots of people coming.
    0:21:40 It’s nice, isn’t it?
    0:21:41 Yeah, I get lots of people coming up to me.
    0:21:43 So I thought, how awesome would it be
    0:21:45 to actually travel, bring out guests
    0:21:48 that people also are excited to see in the flesh?
    0:21:50 I hope maybe you’ll come out to one of them
    0:21:51 and be a guest for us.
    0:21:52 That would be amazing.
    0:21:55 And I think also giving people the opportunity
    0:21:57 to ask me questions, ask the guest questions,
    0:22:00 I think it’s a dynamic experience
    0:22:02 that you don’t get to do on a podcast.
    0:22:03 So I’m excited to take it on tour.
    0:22:05 So we’re starting with North America,
    0:22:07 and then hopefully we’ll take it across
    0:22:08 different parts of the world as well.
    0:22:11 It feels to me like podcasts saying,
    0:22:12 I mean, the original guys,
    0:22:14 the Mark Marins, the Alec Baldwin’s,
    0:22:18 there were some kind of initial people in podcasting,
    0:22:19 and Joe Rogan is endured,
    0:22:22 but there’s a constant reshuffling.
    0:22:23 I have noticed, for example,
    0:22:26 I think Joe Rogan is about to be displaced,
    0:22:30 either by Mel Robbins or a kid here named Stephen Bartlett.
    0:22:32 There’s just a constant disruption
    0:22:33 in the podcasting space.
    0:22:36 And because I’m obsessed with affirmation of other people,
    0:22:38 and I’m always feeling economically insecure,
    0:22:40 I check the rankings every day,
    0:22:43 and I can’t get over just how dynamic
    0:22:44 the rankings are right now,
    0:22:48 meaning that I would bet in the top 100 podcasts,
    0:22:49 30 of them, and it feels like 50,
    0:22:51 weren’t there six months ago,
    0:22:53 which means 30 or 50 that were in the top 100
    0:22:54 and are no longer there.
    0:22:55 What are your observations?
    0:22:57 I mean, I think people think of you
    0:22:59 as a very spiritual guy on a podcast,
    0:23:00 but you’re also a business person.
    0:23:02 When you sit down with your team
    0:23:03 and you think about the dynamics
    0:23:04 of the business right now,
    0:23:06 what do you see out there?
    0:23:07 What do you think is shaking up the industry?
    0:23:11 So, yeah, it’s a really interesting question,
    0:23:12 and I love talking about these things,
    0:23:17 and I really believe that talking just suddenly
    0:23:18 to the point that you mentioned
    0:23:20 about spirituality and business,
    0:23:23 one of my favorite thoughts from Martin Luther King is,
    0:23:27 those who love peace need to learn to organize themselves
    0:23:28 as well as those who love war.
    0:23:31 And so when I look at my strategic mind
    0:23:32 and when I look at my business mind,
    0:23:36 I’ve become extremely organized about spreading wisdom
    0:23:38 because I believe that if I’m not,
    0:23:40 this wouldn’t even exist.
    0:23:41 I wouldn’t even be around today.
    0:23:44 I started creating content nine years ago,
    0:23:46 and the fact that we still exist
    0:23:49 is only because we’ve had to be thoughtful
    0:23:50 and mindful about how we build,
    0:23:53 and I think mindfulness and strategy
    0:23:55 are more aligned than people may think.
    0:23:59 So, anyway, to answer your question more directly,
    0:24:01 there’s a couple of things.
    0:24:05 The first thing is when a lot of us started out,
    0:24:06 I mean, I can’t speak to Joe Rogan
    0:24:08 because there’s so many more years before me,
    0:24:11 but when you look at my content journey on social media,
    0:24:14 whether it’s Facebook where we have 30 million followers,
    0:24:16 Instagram where we have 16 million followers,
    0:24:18 TikTok where we have four and a half million followers,
    0:24:22 the podcast where we do 100 million downloads,
    0:24:25 hundreds of millions of downloads every year,
    0:24:30 the differences is that it was all organic.
    0:24:34 And what I mean by that is we never did any paid advertising.
    0:24:37 And what I’ve noticed in the last six to 12 months
    0:24:40 is a lot of the rise has come from paid models,
    0:24:42 more strategic models,
    0:24:45 the industry getting smarter and sharper,
    0:24:47 giving people the ability to pay to play.
    0:24:51 And so I’m noticing that a lot of the charts,
    0:24:53 and for those of us that understand that well,
    0:24:55 a lot of the charts aren’t necessarily accurate,
    0:24:57 a lot of it’s become paid to play.
    0:25:00 And so the charts are accurate and inaccurate
    0:25:02 in that they’re incomplete
    0:25:04 because there’s so much more to it behind the scenes.
    0:25:08 So there are platforms now where you can pay money
    0:25:11 based on however many episodes that you want to launch
    0:25:12 that will boost your subscribers,
    0:25:14 not artificially, they’re real people,
    0:25:16 but it will boost you in the charts
    0:25:18 because you just got more subscribers that week.
    0:25:21 That doesn’t mean you actually got more listens than Joe Rogan,
    0:25:22 just to give an example.
    0:25:24 And so I think we have to be very careful
    0:25:28 as creators when we’re watching those things.
    0:25:31 And to me, the pay to play has changed the industry of podcasting.
    0:25:35 I think the exclusive deals that now have gone
    0:25:37 non-exclusive have changed the deal.
    0:25:40 So none of the big platforms right now, Spotify, et cetera,
    0:25:42 want to do exclusive deals again.
    0:25:44 So they don’t want to do that either.
    0:25:45 So that’s changed the market.
    0:25:48 And the third thing that’s changed the market
    0:25:52 is the incorporation of YouTube and video views.
    0:25:56 So audio as an industry has only ever valued.
    0:25:58 So when I came into podcasting,
    0:26:00 we worked really hard on downloads
    0:26:02 because that’s where the value was financially
    0:26:04 from a business point of view.
    0:26:06 But today, the shift is happening slowly.
    0:26:08 It’s not happened yet.
    0:26:10 But in the next 12 months, you’re going to see video views
    0:26:13 being married to audio downloads
    0:26:16 as part of valuing the strength of a podcast.
    0:26:18 Hence, when you look at the success of Stephen,
    0:26:21 who’s a friend and coming over for dinner tonight,
    0:26:23 or Mel, who’s also a friend who’s been on the show,
    0:26:27 like when you look at the success Stephen’s had on YouTube,
    0:26:30 that value hasn’t even been accounted for yet.
    0:26:33 And in the next 12 months, you’re going to see that
    0:26:36 be accounted for in a really valuable way
    0:26:38 from a financial business point of view.
    0:26:39 So I think those are the three things,
    0:26:42 pay to play, non-exclusivity,
    0:26:46 which is really helpful for people to be on every platform
    0:26:49 and gain the distribution that platforms weren’t allowing.
    0:26:52 And then the third thing is the valuing of YouTube
    0:26:55 as a big, big, big player.
    0:26:57 And if I’m not mistaken,
    0:27:00 the biggest consumption of podcasting happens on YouTube.
    0:27:04 And so I think those three things have really shifted
    0:27:06 up the industry where back in the day,
    0:27:06 you didn’t have pay to play.
    0:27:08 It was purely organic.
    0:27:09 Platforms were exclusive.
    0:27:13 So you had podcasts that weren’t competing for their rankings.
    0:27:16 And thirdly, YouTube wasn’t included.
    0:27:19 Not that it’s included in Apple or Spotify rankings,
    0:27:21 but it wasn’t included from a business point of view.
    0:27:22 We’ll be right back.
    0:27:30 Support for the show comes from the FunRise Innovation Fund.
    0:27:32 Think of the five biggest names in AI today.
    0:27:34 How many of these companies do you own shares of?
    0:27:35 Probably not many.
    0:27:38 Maybe one, maybe two.
    0:27:38 Why is that?
    0:27:40 Because the open AI’s and anthropics of the world
    0:27:41 are still private.
    0:27:45 That means unless you’re an employee or a VC, you’re out of luck.
    0:27:47 So it isn’t hard to see why venture capital
    0:27:49 has been one of the most prized asset classes in the world.
    0:27:51 But unless you’re worth eight or nine figures,
    0:27:53 you likely don’t have access to these funds.
    0:27:55 The FunRise Innovation Fund is different.
    0:27:57 It’s already raised more than $150 million.
    0:28:00 It holds a portfolio of pre-IPO tech companies
    0:28:03 that are valued at tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars.
    0:28:06 And most importantly, it’s open to investors of all sizes.
    0:28:08 Visit fundrise.com/proppg to check out
    0:28:11 the Innovation Fund’s portfolio and start investing today.
    0:28:14 Relevant disclaimers can be found at the end of the show
    0:28:16 and at fundrise.com/innovation.
    0:28:21 Support for the show comes from Skims.
    0:28:23 This is for the men listening right now.
    0:28:25 There are endless products promising self-improvement,
    0:28:28 but when was the last time you updated your underwear drawer?
    0:28:30 Though the first thing you put on in the morning,
    0:28:34 so you might as well get it right with Skims.
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    0:28:40 loungewear and shapewear for every gender, shape and size.
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    0:28:48 And they do it using some of the softest fabric
    0:28:50 of the highest quality.
    0:28:51 I’ve tried Skims myself.
    0:28:53 I really love this product.
    0:28:54 I especially love it for working out.
    0:28:59 It’s very comfortable, fits nicely, big fan of Skims.
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    0:29:20 (upbeat music)
    0:29:25 Support for PropG comes from the NPR podcast Up First.
    0:29:27 Compulsively reading, depressing, upsetting
    0:29:30 and enraging news all day long does not feel good.
    0:29:32 You don’t need to tell me that.
    0:29:35 Oh my God, help me, Cal God take me away,
    0:29:37 but it can be hard to find the right balance.
    0:29:41 Between protecting your mental health and staying informed,
    0:29:44 that’s where NPR’s podcast Up First comes in.
    0:29:46 Up First covers the three most important stories
    0:29:48 of the day in just 15 minutes so you can learn
    0:29:50 what you need to know and then move on with your day.
    0:29:53 From the current administration to business and the economy,
    0:29:54 all the way to immigration policies.
    0:29:57 Up First is the go-to daily habit for the news consumer
    0:30:01 who wants to stay informed but is forever strapped for a time.
    0:30:03 And every episode gives you what you need to be informed
    0:30:05 without compromising your sanity.
    0:30:08 I listened to a recent episode and I found it really crisp
    0:30:10 and kind of gave me sort of an overview
    0:30:12 or the cliff notes of the day.
    0:30:15 And by the way, NPR, they just do a fantastic job
    0:30:16 at almost everything they do.
    0:30:19 The production quality is really top notch.
    0:30:21 If you’re looking for more news and less noise,
    0:30:25 you can listen to the Up First podcast from NPR today.
    0:30:36 I want to kind of move more towards your domain expertise
    0:30:37 and I’m going to start out,
    0:30:38 I want to talk about a couple things.
    0:30:40 I want to talk about anxiety and I want to talk about finding love.
    0:30:43 And I’m going to, so just so you know,
    0:30:44 my guests are nothing but a vehicle for me
    0:30:46 to talk about myself.
    0:30:47 So this is that part of the program.
    0:30:51 I struggle with anger and depression.
    0:30:53 I’ve been able to manage it without pharmaceuticals.
    0:30:57 I do it through exercise, time with my boys, trying to eat clean.
    0:31:01 I have a bunch of tricks to try and, you know,
    0:31:04 or practices to keep me sort of even killed
    0:31:06 and hating my life less and less every day.
    0:31:09 But things will trigger me and I’ll go down a rabbit hole.
    0:31:11 And that’s happened to me recently
    0:31:13 since the election or since the inauguration.
    0:31:16 And whether that those feelings are justified
    0:31:18 or there’s something deeper,
    0:31:22 I’ve really struggled with trying to disassociate or separate
    0:31:23 or maintain some perspective
    0:31:27 around what’s happened recently in the US.
    0:31:29 And this isn’t a political statement.
    0:31:31 I’m not saying that my anxiety is warranted
    0:31:36 or in any way justifies or indicts what’s happening.
    0:31:42 But I would, what advice would you give to me to say, okay, Scott?
    0:31:44 And for me, meditation is like flossing.
    0:31:45 I lie about it.
    0:31:48 And that is when my hygienist says, do you floss?
    0:31:50 I lie and I say yes.
    0:31:51 I very rarely floss.
    0:31:54 And when people ask me if I meditate, I lie and I say yes.
    0:31:55 And the reality is I don’t.
    0:31:57 I really don’t do a lot of meditation.
    0:31:59 So given that I’m a newbie,
    0:32:02 given that I’m struggling a little bit with anxiety,
    0:32:05 given the state of the world, give me your best shot.
    0:32:08 Like give me your download on, all right, Scott,
    0:32:11 these are some best practices, some initial steps.
    0:32:15 You should be taking to manage your anxiety.
    0:32:21 First of all, Scott, I want to validate your anxiety by saying that
    0:32:28 I’m not surprised that you feel the anxiety that you feel.
    0:32:30 I think we’re living at a time.
    0:32:32 I was reading an article that said,
    0:32:40 we digest or consume more tragedy in 24 hours
    0:32:43 than we used to do in our whole lifetime 25 years ago.
    0:32:46 And if you think about that for a second,
    0:32:51 the amount of news, information, negativity, noise,
    0:32:54 notifications that a human consumes today
    0:32:57 is not something we’ve upgraded to yet.
    0:33:00 It’s not something that we’ve figured out yet.
    0:33:02 And so anyone who’s listening right now,
    0:33:04 which I think will be all of your audience
    0:33:07 that feels anxiety about something in their life,
    0:33:09 it’s because we’re so overexposed.
    0:33:12 Me, you, and everyone, we’re all overexposed.
    0:33:15 You know what’s happening halfway across the world
    0:33:18 before maybe even someone who’s in that area,
    0:33:21 in that vicinity, if you’re logged in and tuned in.
    0:33:24 And so I think the challenge we’re having is
    0:33:26 we are exposed to more negativity,
    0:33:31 noise, news, notifications than we ever have in our lifetime.
    0:33:33 Now, accepting that, and we have to accept that,
    0:33:35 because I think if we don’t accept that,
    0:33:36 we can get very judgmental.
    0:33:39 We can get very harsh with ourselves.
    0:33:40 We can get very critical with ourselves.
    0:33:43 If we just think I’m weak, I’m not strong enough.
    0:33:45 I’m not, you know, maybe there’s something wrong with me.
    0:33:48 It’s like, no, no, no, some things have changed.
    0:33:50 Things have shifted and they’ve shifted fast.
    0:33:51 And you might even have missed it.
    0:33:53 So what do we do with that?
    0:33:54 I think it’s really important.
    0:33:58 The first thing I’d say is before we even get into meditation
    0:34:02 is we’ve got to be really careful with our digital diet.
    0:34:07 If your digital diet means in every gap of your day,
    0:34:11 you take out your phone and you scroll on TikTok or Instagram
    0:34:13 and you allow yourself to discover
    0:34:17 the latest piece of news around the world,
    0:34:20 it’s literally like going to your refrigerator
    0:34:23 or your snack cupboard and picking out a bag of chips
    0:34:26 every single part of the day where you have a break.
    0:34:28 Now, if you did that, if every single break you had,
    0:34:31 you went and grabbed a fizzy soda, a Coke,
    0:34:34 you went and grabbed a bag of chips.
    0:34:37 If you went and grabbed an unhealthy snack, no wonder.
    0:34:39 Your diet would be terrible.
    0:34:42 You’d be highly inflamed and you’d have massive health issues.
    0:34:44 But that’s what we’re doing to our mind.
    0:34:48 And so the first step for me is being really clear about
    0:34:51 where you get your news, how you get your news
    0:34:53 and how often you get it.
    0:34:55 That to me will solve half of our issues.
    0:34:58 I don’t think people are curating
    0:35:02 how they consume difficult information.
    0:35:04 If you think about it, like if you were diagnosed,
    0:35:09 one of my friends recently sadly had diagnosis of cancer,
    0:35:12 when his doctor was telling him he had cancer,
    0:35:15 the doctor would say to you, “Take a seat.
    0:35:16 “I’ve got something to share with you.
    0:35:17 “Do you mind coming in?”
    0:35:20 They might even call you and say, “Hey, do you mind coming in?
    0:35:21 “Take a seat.
    0:35:23 “Hey, this is what’s going on.”
    0:35:27 That would be the environment in which you consume
    0:35:29 difficult information.
    0:35:31 Now, not that all the information we consume
    0:35:33 on a daily basis is about us.
    0:35:35 But if you’re going, “Oh my gosh, I just heard
    0:35:36 “that someone got shot down the road.”
    0:35:40 And, “Oh my god, I just opened up the ring app
    0:35:41 “and I know that someone got burgled
    0:35:42 “like a mile away from me.”
    0:35:45 And then, “Oh my gosh, there’s fires happening over here.”
    0:35:47 And it’s, all of a sudden, you’re not informed.
    0:35:48 You’re overwhelmed.
    0:35:52 And so I would really ask people to differentiate
    0:35:56 between what is your definition of being informed
    0:35:58 and what are the newsletters you follow,
    0:35:59 what are the news accounts you follow,
    0:36:01 how often do you look at it,
    0:36:04 and that digital diet has to become everything.
    0:36:06 Because otherwise, your anxiety is going to be
    0:36:07 constantly triggered because, by the way,
    0:36:10 these platforms are told to do that.
    0:36:12 They know that they’ve got to have breaking news
    0:36:13 every moment.
    0:36:16 And I know so many people who just have a news channel on
    0:36:18 in the background of living their day.
    0:36:21 No wonder you’ve got all of this anxiety
    0:36:23 just seeping in moment to moment.
    0:36:27 Studies show we have 60 to 80,000 thoughts per day.
    0:36:32 And 80% of those are negative
    0:36:34 and 80% of those are repetitive.
    0:36:38 So you’re not just having lots of different negative thoughts.
    0:36:41 You’re having the same negative thought again
    0:36:43 and again and again,
    0:36:45 which means you can disrupt that pattern,
    0:36:47 which means you can change it.
    0:36:48 So how do we do it?
    0:36:51 You were saying you struggle with meditation,
    0:36:54 and I could give you loads of great meditation advice,
    0:36:55 and here’s the thing, Scott,
    0:36:57 until I lived with you for seven days,
    0:36:58 maybe 30,
    0:37:00 and sat next to you every single day
    0:37:02 and meditated with you,
    0:37:04 chances are it would be hard
    0:37:06 for you to truly internalize it.
    0:37:07 Because that’s the kind of pattern shift
    0:37:09 that your life would require.
    0:37:12 So, or anyone’s life would require.
    0:37:14 So what I’m going to say is this,
    0:37:17 you can’t control 60 to 80,000 thoughts per day.
    0:37:18 You might not even be able to meditate
    0:37:19 for 10 minutes a day,
    0:37:21 but here’s what I want you to do.
    0:37:24 I want you to master the first thought
    0:37:28 and the last thought of every day,
    0:37:30 because usually what happens
    0:37:32 is our first thought is repetitive
    0:37:33 and our last thought is repetitive.
    0:37:34 Think about it.
    0:37:36 You go to sleep and you say to yourself,
    0:37:38 “I’m so tired.”
    0:37:39 You wake up in the morning
    0:37:40 and the first thing you say to yourself is,
    0:37:42 “I’m so tired.”
    0:37:44 You somehow make it through to 9 a.m.
    0:37:45 to get your morning coffee
    0:37:47 and you’re thinking, “I’m exhausted.”
    0:37:48 Then you get to 12 noon
    0:37:49 and you’re thinking,
    0:37:50 “Well, lunch is going to be a bit late.
    0:37:51 I’ve got a couple of meetings.
    0:37:53 I’m exhausted.”
    0:37:55 And now it makes it at 6 p.m.
    0:37:56 You’re like, “I’m so tired,
    0:37:57 but I’ve got to work a bit.”
    0:38:00 And somehow at 10.37 p.m.,
    0:38:02 you get the courage to click next episode
    0:38:03 and watch another three hours
    0:38:04 of your favorite show
    0:38:05 and the cycle goes again.
    0:38:08 So we’re used to repeating the thought,
    0:38:10 “I’m so tired.”
    0:38:11 And that thought’s useless.
    0:38:14 It doesn’t help because we’re not making it useful.
    0:38:17 So how do we master the first and last thought of the day?
    0:38:19 You set an alarm at night
    0:38:21 to wake up in the morning.
    0:38:23 You don’t set an alarm in the morning.
    0:38:24 Right? You don’t say,
    0:38:25 “I’m going to wake up at 7.30.”
    0:38:27 And when I wake up at 7.30 in the morning,
    0:38:28 I have it on my alarm.
    0:38:29 You go the night before,
    0:38:31 “I want to wake up at 6 a.m. tomorrow.
    0:38:32 Let me set my alarm.”
    0:38:35 Let me set the mindset
    0:38:37 I want to wake up with tonight.
    0:38:39 What is the coding
    0:38:41 that I’m going to put into my brain,
    0:38:42 into my mind?
    0:38:44 I am going to wake up
    0:38:47 rejuvenated, rested, and fueled.
    0:38:51 I am waking up feeling rested,
    0:38:52 feeling calm,
    0:38:56 and not being distracted from my phone.
    0:38:59 What is it that you want to program yourself to do?
    0:39:01 You’ll find that if you do that intentionally,
    0:39:04 of course, if you ideally sleep at a decent time,
    0:39:05 you’ll wake up in the morning,
    0:39:08 and you’ll find that if you plan to that thought deep enough,
    0:39:09 it will be the first thought of the day.
    0:39:10 And all of a sudden,
    0:39:12 you won’t retrieve your phone
    0:39:13 and allow the news, negativity,
    0:39:15 and notifications, and the noise to come in.
    0:39:16 And you’ll say, “You know what?
    0:39:17 I’m going to go on a little walk,
    0:39:19 get some sunlight,
    0:39:21 go and take my morning coffee,
    0:39:23 what morning tea, whatever it is for you.
    0:39:25 And yeah, in 30 minutes, I’ll look at my phone.
    0:39:26 And by the way, I won’t just look at my phone.
    0:39:29 I know the newsletter I’m going to look at
    0:39:30 or the page I’m going to look at.
    0:39:33 So I would encourage you
    0:39:35 to master your first and last thought of the day
    0:39:38 as a preliminary practice to meditation,
    0:39:40 because to me,
    0:39:43 those thoughts are the ones that are repeated
    0:39:46 and meditation ultimately is a repeated thought.
    0:39:47 And so that’s where I would start.
    0:39:50 And I would have never gotten there on my own.
    0:39:51 This is virtue signaling,
    0:39:52 but I’ll do it anyways.
    0:39:54 I’m finally, I’m older than you.
    0:39:54 I’m at a point in my life
    0:39:57 where I want to catch up from all that I’ve taken
    0:39:59 and I’m starting to give away my money.
    0:40:01 And it’s something I find really rewarding,
    0:40:04 but I want to be intentional and purposeful about it.
    0:40:06 And I met with someone who was so insightful around giving,
    0:40:08 and they said, “What are you passionate about?”
    0:40:11 And my passion is helping struggling young men.
    0:40:13 Like, well, what would you do for them if you could do,
    0:40:15 if you had a group of young men
    0:40:17 and you wanted to do something for them,
    0:40:18 what would you do?
    0:40:18 What would you do?
    0:40:20 And I said, “Well, number three in reverse order,
    0:40:23 I’d want more male involvement in their life.”
    0:40:25 And that’s, you know, you can solve that.
    0:40:28 Big brothers, there’s some stuff that’s more complicated,
    0:40:32 ranging from family court or different types of legislation.
    0:40:35 Number two, more economic opportunities.
    0:40:36 So you can think of things.
    0:40:38 You can think of legislation or vocational programming.
    0:40:41 But the thing I would want to do for young men,
    0:40:42 and my question to you,
    0:40:46 is if I could give anything to a lot of young men,
    0:40:50 it’s that one in three young men are in a relationship,
    0:40:53 and two in three women under the age of 30 in a relationship.
    0:40:55 And you think, “Well, that’s mathematically impossible.”
    0:40:57 It’s because women are dating older,
    0:41:02 because they want more economically and emotionally viable men.
    0:41:05 And when I look back at the most important things in my life
    0:41:08 as a young man, it was having the joy,
    0:41:10 the love, the camaraderie, and quite frankly,
    0:41:13 the guardrails of a romantic relationship.
    0:41:16 It was just so important, you know,
    0:41:18 to have someone who was crazy about me
    0:41:21 and then not crazy about me to get my heart broken,
    0:41:23 to learn resilience.
    0:41:26 It’s just that partnership, saving for a house.
    0:41:30 It was just so, more I think than money,
    0:41:33 more than anything, it just shaped me as a man.
    0:41:38 And so few men are finding this.
    0:41:38 At a young age.
    0:41:41 And you’ve written a lot about this,
    0:41:47 but how could you advise a young man to be more successful
    0:41:50 with respect to romantic relationships and finding love?
    0:41:52 And I know that’s a really big,
    0:41:54 I know we’re gonna need a bigger boat,
    0:41:58 but are there any practices for a young man who thinks,
    0:42:01 “I remember thinking, I didn’t have a girlfriend
    0:42:03 ’til I was well into college.
    0:42:05 I remember thinking I’d be the best boyfriend
    0:42:07 if someone would just give me a shot.”
    0:42:07 Right?
    0:42:10 And I think there are literally millions of men out there
    0:42:12 who are thinking the same thing.
    0:42:13 Anyways, your thoughts.
    0:42:16 That’s, yeah, it’s a huge question.
    0:42:19 And I’m so glad that you’ve focused your life on this.
    0:42:22 I was very fortunate enough in my younger years
    0:42:26 to mentor a group of 20 young men in my spiritual community
    0:42:28 who I’ve seen grow up,
    0:42:33 probably mentor them for around 15 years now at this point.
    0:42:36 And it’s been an incredible journey watching them,
    0:42:40 become phenomenal young men, find love, settle down.
    0:42:43 Some of them have started to have children now.
    0:42:46 It’s been one of the most meaningful investments in my life
    0:42:49 that I probably didn’t realize how deep it was gonna be then.
    0:42:52 And these men are my younger brothers.
    0:42:54 They’ve become very, very close friends.
    0:42:56 So it’s something very close to my heart.
    0:43:00 The first thing I’ll say when it comes to love and for young men,
    0:43:03 which is probably counterintuitive
    0:43:05 and probably one of the hardest things to train,
    0:43:09 but I do believe it’s so valuable, is sense control.
    0:43:11 Because sense control,
    0:43:14 and this is what I was fortunate enough to learn in the monastery,
    0:43:21 sense control is the greatest confidence booster and builder
    0:43:24 that you’ll ever, ever have.
    0:43:30 You can’t be a master of your senses and not be confident.
    0:43:34 It’s just not possible because you’ve conquered the hardest thing.
    0:43:38 You’ve built a relationship with the part of you
    0:43:41 that pushes you and pulls you whenever it feels like it.
    0:43:44 So how does a young man do that in today’s world
    0:43:50 that’s bombarded by porn, bombarded by exposure to too many things,
    0:43:54 too many sensory images, sounds, everything else?
    0:43:55 How do you do that?
    0:44:02 I think it’s really powerful when men can build up a healthy relationship
    0:44:06 with spending time alone by themselves.
    0:44:08 And I think that comes through doing something hard.
    0:44:10 It’s not sitting alone with your thoughts.
    0:44:12 It’s not sitting around where you are.
    0:44:17 It’s picking up a sport, a habit, a practice, a workout regime,
    0:44:19 whatever it is that you’re passionate about,
    0:44:25 reading, going there and building a strength and commitment
    0:44:27 by focusing on doing something hard.
    0:44:28 When I say sense control,
    0:44:31 I don’t mean every single sense of yours is mastered
    0:44:32 and you never feel any urge.
    0:44:35 I mean, how can you do something that’s truly hard?
    0:44:38 How can you do something that’s truly challenging?
    0:44:40 And how can you do something that’s measured?
    0:44:42 How can you do something where it’s like,
    0:44:43 “Okay, I’m black belt now.
    0:44:44 I’m blue belt now.
    0:44:45 I’m yellow belt now.”
    0:44:46 How can you do something where it’s like,
    0:44:49 “Okay, I’m able to play this pace of tennis.
    0:44:52 I’m an amateur, I’m semi-pro, whatever it may be.”
    0:44:57 I think taking on a challenge that can be measured is critical.
    0:45:00 And I think taking on something younger is ideal.
    0:45:02 I was very fortunate.
    0:45:05 My parents were so scared that I was going to be so shy
    0:45:07 and insecure growing up,
    0:45:09 they forced me to go to public speaking school.
    0:45:12 And so from the ages of 11 to 18 for seven years,
    0:45:15 I took exams in public speaking.
    0:45:17 I went to nine hours a week in public speaking training.
    0:45:18 I went to drama school.
    0:45:21 I did a ton of training at that time and it was hard.
    0:45:22 I was terrible.
    0:45:23 My friends would laugh at me.
    0:45:24 It wasn’t cool to go to that.
    0:45:26 And when I look at any success I have today,
    0:45:29 it’s because of those seven years of working,
    0:45:31 working really, really hard on a skill set
    0:45:33 that I didn’t even know how I was going to use.
    0:45:35 I didn’t know podcasting didn’t exist,
    0:45:36 social media didn’t exist.
    0:45:38 It wasn’t like it was a strategic investment.
    0:45:40 It was just the idea that there was something
    0:45:41 that I could do that was hard.
    0:45:42 I didn’t enjoy going.
    0:45:43 I was forced to go.
    0:45:44 But there’s power in that.
    0:45:46 So don’t resist something that’s forced.
    0:45:47 That would be step one.
    0:45:51 The second thing men can do for romantic love is
    0:45:57 be really aware whether you like someone
    0:46:00 because you just want to be liked.
    0:46:02 I think a lot of young men, like you say,
    0:46:03 they say they’re going to be a great boyfriend.
    0:46:06 But it’s because they want to be a great boyfriend.
    0:46:10 They want to be known as being a great boyfriend,
    0:46:11 not being a great partner.
    0:46:13 And I think that’s a big, big, big challenge
    0:46:16 as to why young love is so hard.
    0:46:20 Because we’re doing the right thing not to be a good person,
    0:46:21 but because we want to be as seen
    0:46:22 as the person who’s doing the right thing.
    0:46:25 We want to be seen as the guy who does all the right stuff.
    0:46:27 And you may realize three months from now,
    0:46:29 you don’t even like that person that much.
    0:46:31 And so I’d be really, really clear on,
    0:46:35 am I doing this to be liked or do I actually like this person?
    0:46:37 If I like this person, let me really invest in this.
    0:46:39 Let me really be building something powerful here.
    0:46:44 But let me not do this because I’m building my self-worth
    0:46:47 off of someone else’s praise of me doing the gimmicky thing
    0:46:49 because I think it’s going to make them like me.
    0:46:52 That’s going to end up messing their life up
    0:46:53 and messing my life up.
    0:46:56 And the third thing I’d say in love is
    0:47:10 be really conscious of how your past pain creates present problems.
    0:47:15 And so reflect on where you’re hoping your partner,
    0:47:17 I call it the gifts and gaps.
    0:47:22 We’re often wanting our partner to fill the gaps our parent left.
    0:47:26 Or to repeat the gifts that our parents gave.
    0:47:28 Be really aware of those.
    0:47:32 I’m not saying either is right or wrong or they can go either way.
    0:47:36 But to be really, really conscious and aware of where they’re coming from
    0:47:40 because what often ends up happening is we’ve ruined something great
    0:47:42 because of something terrible in the past.
    0:47:46 And it’s because we’re so unaware of what triggers we’re taking forward with us.
    0:47:49 I mean, I could talk about this for hours, but those are three things I think about.
    0:47:57 We’ll be right back.
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    0:50:50 We’re back with more from Jay Shetty.
    0:50:53 I love the way you think.
    0:50:56 You kind of, you think in threes very much like a consultant
    0:51:02 and give us your top-line thoughts on what you’ve learned with your partner
    0:51:06 and the relationship advice you would provide or give to more men
    0:51:12 who are in a relationship, a monogamous relationship.
    0:51:16 One of the things that was really hard for me to get over, Scott, was
    0:51:22 as someone who’s a, you know, someone who’s on stage, a public personality,
    0:51:27 and I think men have this regardless of whether you have a public profile or not.
    0:51:32 I think men, we want to be admired.
    0:51:33 We want to be appreciated.
    0:51:36 We want to be respected, especially by our partners.
    0:51:40 And some men I know want to be celebrated, want to be adored,
    0:51:43 want to be fanned over to some degree.
    0:51:47 And I was really fortunate because
    0:51:54 my wife, by her own admission, I would say isn’t my,
    0:52:00 isn’t the number one fan of my success, but she is the number one fan of me.
    0:52:02 And I think this is a really important point.
    0:52:09 I had to learn through my wife to value myself based on who I was
    0:52:14 and how I behaved, not what I achieved and what I killed and what I created.
    0:52:18 And I think if it wasn’t for the way she loved me for that,
    0:52:21 I think I would have been someone who measured my value
    0:52:28 based on simply my success, my wins, and my accolades.
    0:52:33 And so I would encourage people to say, is your partner here for you?
    0:52:39 Because chances are they are, but we’re so wrapped up in wanting them to love us
    0:52:40 for what we achieve and what we do.
    0:52:42 I’ve had so many friends who are like, oh my God,
    0:52:46 like I just don’t feel valued for what I’m building and what I’m creating.
    0:52:50 I’m like, that may be the case, but what if you lost it all?
    0:52:52 Would that mean you wouldn’t be valued now?
    0:52:54 Is that how you want to be loved?
    0:52:56 Do you want to be loved for that and unloved for not having that?
    0:52:59 Or do you want to be valued for the qualities you have,
    0:53:02 the characteristics you have, the values you live by?
    0:53:06 So that was a big, big, big lesson for me that I learned through my wife,
    0:53:09 not that she doesn’t love the podcast and the books and whatever.
    0:53:15 She appreciates all of it, but it pales into insignificance and irrelevance
    0:53:20 compared to the love and appreciation she has for me as the man I show up as.
    0:53:24 And I think that’s made me value myself more highly and better than I would have before.
    0:53:25 So that’s been huge.
    0:53:34 Another thing that comes to mind as you ask that is if your partner is trying to change you,
    0:53:40 help them understand how unlikely that is.
    0:53:43 I find that a lot of men deal with this problem the most,
    0:53:45 where their partner’s trying to change them.
    0:53:49 And I’ll often get women in my audience that will say to me,
    0:53:52 “I really want my husband to get into self-development and personal growth.
    0:53:54 And I just don’t get out and get him into it.
    0:53:55 And he won’t listen to me.
    0:53:57 And I’m giving him all the books.
    0:53:58 And J.I. sent him your podcast.
    0:53:59 I’m like, “Oh, please don’t.
    0:54:00 Please don’t send him my stuff.
    0:54:02 I don’t want him to hate me for the rest of my life.”
    0:54:05 And I get a lot of those questions of how do I do it?
    0:54:09 And when I’m speaking to the women, I’ll always say to them, “Don’t do it.
    0:54:11 Like, let him find its way to it.
    0:54:13 Let him find something that’s natural to it.
    0:54:16 Don’t send him my interview with the person you’re inspired by.
    0:54:18 Send him my interview with the person he’s inspired by.
    0:54:19 Maybe he loves athletes.
    0:54:21 Maybe he loves musicians.
    0:54:22 Maybe he loves Scott.
    0:54:26 Like, that’s the conversation he needs to listen to, not X, Y, and Z that you love.
    0:54:28 Stop trying to make him the version of you.
    0:54:34 And I think for a lot of men, either we pretend to change or we promise to change.
    0:54:37 Or we say, “Yeah, yeah, yeah, we go along with it.”
    0:54:39 Rather than saying, “You know what? This is who I am.
    0:54:42 I’m really going to struggle to be that version that you want me to be.”
    0:54:45 The amount of times when I met my wife, I was so clear.
    0:54:46 I was like, “This is who I am.
    0:54:47 This is who I’m going to be.
    0:54:48 This is what I value.
    0:54:50 This is my purpose.
    0:54:51 This is the guy I am.
    0:54:54 I’m not the guy who wants to go to the movie theater every week.
    0:54:56 I’m not the guy who wants to do X, Y, Z.
    0:54:57 Like, this is who I am.”
    0:55:00 And communicating that.
    0:55:02 And then also hearing from her, who is she?
    0:55:03 What does she want?
    0:55:08 And then we learn this art where we’ve overused the word respect,
    0:55:10 but we’ve actually undervalued what it means.
    0:55:16 Respect means I don’t need you to value what I value,
    0:55:18 but you respect what I value.
    0:55:22 You allow me to live life the way I want to live it.
    0:55:25 And I allow you to live life the way you want to live it,
    0:55:28 because I respect your value.
    0:55:30 But I don’t need you to change to be who I am.
    0:55:33 So I think being really careful about being open about,
    0:55:33 “This is who I am.
    0:55:36 This is what I can realistically do.”
    0:55:40 I’m not going to pretend and promise and overshare on this potential of,
    0:55:41 “I’ll be there someday.”
    0:55:42 “Oh, I’m getting there.”
    0:55:43 “Oh, yeah, yeah, I’m reading it.”
    0:55:45 It’s kind of like what you said about meditation.
    0:55:47 Like, what’s the point of lying?
    0:55:48 What’s the point of pretending?
    0:55:50 And as you said, I like threes,
    0:55:53 and so I’ll give you one more, because why not?
    0:56:05 My favorite one probably is letting my wife change.
    0:56:09 I married, my wife and I met in our early 20s.
    0:56:10 I was in my mid-20s.
    0:56:12 You know, we’ve been married.
    0:56:14 We’ve been together for 12 years, married for nine.
    0:56:20 And I’ve been pretty much the same human through most of it.
    0:56:21 I don’t think I’ve changed that much.
    0:56:24 The scale of my life has changed and things like that.
    0:56:28 But my priorities and the way I work, I’m pretty much very, very similar.
    0:56:32 My wife has changed and lived so many different lives in the last 12 years.
    0:56:39 And I feel like that’s the mistake a lot of us make
    0:56:41 where we go, “Well, you didn’t care about this three years ago.
    0:56:42 Why do you care about it now?
    0:56:45 You didn’t want this seven years ago.
    0:56:46 Why do you want it now?
    0:56:48 You weren’t this person nine years ago.
    0:56:50 How are you that person now?”
    0:56:55 And I think the realization that, “Hey, the person you marry on your wedding day
    0:56:59 is not the person that’s there at your 50th birthday.
    0:57:02 And it’s not the person who’s there when you’re sick in hospital.
    0:57:03 That person changes.”
    0:57:04 And you probably will too.
    0:57:09 So recognizing that they’re going to change, I’m going to change,
    0:57:11 and I’m going to allow space for that.
    0:57:12 Because guess what?
    0:57:15 That’s what makes the relationship joyful.
    0:57:16 That’s exciting.
    0:57:18 And by the way, if I don’t find that exciting,
    0:57:20 and I want to find someone that’s going to be the same,
    0:57:23 I’m going to find someone who can probably be the same for seven years.
    0:57:24 Right?
    0:57:26 Divorce happens between the first five to seven years of marriage
    0:57:28 and cycles every seven years.
    0:57:31 Maybe someone can stay the same for five to seven years.
    0:57:34 But even the cells in our body are changing during that time.
    0:57:37 So maybe someone’s going to be a new person every seven years.
    0:57:39 So maybe you’re going to leave that person, find another person.
    0:57:42 Maybe you’ll find someone who stays the same for five to seven years.
    0:57:44 But that person’s also going to become a new person.
    0:57:46 So start getting real about the fact that
    0:57:52 there is no consistency and stagnancy and remaining the same.
    0:57:56 What remains the same is that you’ve lived that much life together.
    0:57:59 My wife’s a different person today, but she’s the only person in the world
    0:58:02 who’s experienced my trajectory with me as intimately.
    0:58:06 That’s what I value so deeply about that consistency.
    0:58:11 Kind of invokes that old adage that women want men to change
    0:58:13 and men want women to stay the same.
    0:58:21 Anyways, I have found that with a partner that they are forced to go through
    0:58:24 to change their complexion and approach to life
    0:58:28 because they take sometimes a disproportionate
    0:58:31 unfair amount of responsibility around the kids.
    0:58:32 But you’ve been very dense with your time.
    0:58:34 I just have one more question.
    0:58:35 You have a very public profile.
    0:58:39 It’s impossible to have your profile and put yourself out there
    0:58:44 is openly and is provocatively on issues this important
    0:58:48 and without getting a lot of criticism.
    0:58:50 How do you deal with criticism?
    0:58:54 And what advice would you be in terms of a practice for how to handle?
    0:58:56 Be thoughtful, right?
    0:59:00 Anyone who is immune to criticism, I wouldn’t trust.
    0:59:03 I’d be like, okay, I think that makes you a sociopath.
    0:59:06 So how do you deal with criticism?
    0:59:11 One thing I’ve learned just by observing and having the fortune
    0:59:16 of coaching people who are far more successful, famous, and accomplished than I am
    0:59:20 is that the closer you get to the top 1%,
    0:59:23 the more likely you are to have 50% of people disagree with you.
    0:59:27 So if you look at the most prominent positions in society,
    0:59:33 you take the president, chances are close to 50% of the country disagrees with you, right?
    0:59:36 So you look at the more someone gets into the top 1% athletes,
    0:59:39 you look at athletes.
    0:59:42 It’s like you look at Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi.
    0:59:44 You get 50% on either side.
    0:59:46 You get Kendrick Lamar and Drake.
    0:59:48 You get 50% on either side.
    0:59:52 Like it’s very hard to be the 1% of your industry
    0:59:56 or the world in case of these people that I’m talking about
    0:59:58 and not have 50% of people disagree with you.
    1:00:03 So I think the first step is recognizing that the closer you get to the 1%,
    1:00:06 the more chance it is that 50% of people are going to have an issue with you.
    1:00:10 So I think everyone remembers as an early stage creator
    1:00:12 when you kind of had 100,000 followers
    1:00:15 and your comment section was La La Land, right?
    1:00:18 You lived in this little bubble where everyone loved you.
    1:00:19 Everyone said wonderful things.
    1:00:22 Things were beautiful and then you got to a million followers
    1:00:24 and then that changed proportionately
    1:00:27 and then you got to 10 million and it changed and whatever else it may be.
    1:00:28 So that’s the first thing.
    1:00:31 We have to look at it realistically, statistically
    1:00:35 and realize it’s not personal, it’s math.
    1:00:36 That’s the first step.
    1:00:42 The second thing is how can I take feedback without the sting?
    1:00:49 And this is an art that I was really grateful to learn in the monastery
    1:00:51 which was this, the quality of humility.
    1:00:52 What does humility really mean?
    1:00:57 Humility doesn’t mean I’m weak and I’m not good enough
    1:00:58 and that’s low self-esteem.
    1:01:06 Humility means I have the ability to extract that which is beneficial for me
    1:01:10 and leave that which is hurtful and poisonous.
    1:01:14 Can I actually have the ability to listen to something,
    1:01:18 to consume something that may be really hurtful
    1:01:24 but extract the minimal truth in it that may inspire me, that may make me better
    1:01:29 and leave behind the part that was venomous or poisonous.
    1:01:34 And I try and do that as much as I can when I see anything.
    1:01:37 I’m always like where is the truth in that?
    1:01:39 What can I take from that?
    1:01:42 What is there about that that can actually improve my character from?
    1:01:48 And let me leave behind the negativity, the venom, the envy.
    1:01:52 Sure, I’m sure it’s covered in envy, ego, competition.
    1:01:55 I’m sure it’s covered in all these things but the skill of humility
    1:02:00 is the ability to leave all that stuff behind and extract and see if I can work on myself.
    1:02:04 And the third thing is to
    1:02:15 be really careful about having a group of people who truly know you,
    1:02:19 who deeply know you, who intimately know you,
    1:02:21 making sure that you’re not lonely at the top.
    1:02:28 I’ve seen that for so many people, the cliche is true, people are lonely at the top
    1:02:32 because they don’t make friends with people that go through similar things.
    1:02:37 Most people who are at the top will make friends only with their childhood friends,
    1:02:38 which is great, I love my childhood friends.
    1:02:44 But my childhood friends can’t relate to what I go through at this stage in my life.
    1:02:48 So I have to have friends in the similar industry in a similar space
    1:02:52 to actually be able to share what we’re going through.
    1:02:54 And if those people know me intimately,
    1:02:59 those are also the people who can remind me of who I truly am, why I started, why I’m here.
    1:03:03 And to me, that is the most powerful investment you can make.
    1:03:06 The biggest mistake you can make is to think because you’re number one,
    1:03:09 you don’t need anyone else around you.
    1:03:13 And by the way, back in the day, 25 years ago,
    1:03:14 people were pit against each other.
    1:03:18 They were told, you can be the only successful black man in Hollywood.
    1:03:21 You can be the only successful woman in this field.
    1:03:22 People were told things like that.
    1:03:30 And I think that naturally made people disconnect and not build friendships in their zone of genius.
    1:03:35 So I would encourage people to make friends in their zone of genius and deep intimate friends
    1:03:39 because chances are that’s the only person who knows what it feels like.
    1:03:44 And so that’s how I think about it in those three areas again.
    1:03:48 And by the way, my biggest takeaway on all of that is,
    1:03:56 it’s so wonderful to be detached through criticism,
    1:03:59 to praise and ego and your own height.
    1:04:02 If it doesn’t offer any other value,
    1:04:08 it offers the value to remind you that you do this only for the reason you do it for.
    1:04:10 You get joy from the fact that you’re doing it because you believe in it.
    1:04:14 And that from a very spiritual perspective,
    1:04:17 you don’t get to take your fame with you.
    1:04:18 You don’t get to take the money with you.
    1:04:22 You don’t get to take the accolades with you.
    1:04:24 And no one’s even going to remember any of that.
    1:04:27 So the universe is just preparing you to be detached from things
    1:04:29 that are going to be taken from you anyway.
    1:04:32 So why not learn to be detached while they’re still here?
    1:04:35 Rather than wait till the moment they’re all snatched away
    1:04:40 and then try and grab a hold of them and scrap with them.
    1:04:42 Why not embrace your own insignificance
    1:04:45 before you truly become insignificant and irrelevant?
    1:04:46 And so it gives you a glimpse of that.
    1:04:50 It gives you a really beautiful spiritual ego death and glimpse of that,
    1:04:53 which materially is the worst thing to go through
    1:04:56 and spiritually is the most beautiful, fulfilling thing to go through.
    1:04:58 Yeah, I like that.
    1:05:00 Embrace your insignificance in a healthy way.
    1:05:03 Jay Shetty is a global best-selling author, entrepreneur,
    1:05:06 and the host of the world’s number one mental health podcast on purpose.
    1:05:09 Born in London, Jay embarked on a transformative journey
    1:05:12 as a Hindu monk before merging ancient wisdom with the digital world.
    1:05:15 His podcast on purpose with Jay Shetty chops the charts
    1:05:17 as one of the world’s leading podcasts
    1:05:19 with over 35 million monthly downloads and features.
    1:05:24 Influential gas, basically, you name it.
    1:05:25 I won’t even go through all of these.
    1:05:29 And he also has several best-selling books.
    1:05:32 He joins us from his home in Los Angeles.
    1:05:33 Jay, I really enjoyed this.
    1:05:38 You’re sort of like entering into this dream-like state
    1:05:39 when I listen to you.
    1:05:42 I’m listening, but I just find a sense of calm
    1:05:45 about the rhythm and the cadence.
    1:05:47 You’re really a joy to listen to.
    1:05:51 I appreciate your time and am really happy for all your success
    1:05:53 and thank you, I think you deserve it.
    1:05:56 This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez.
    1:05:58 Our intern is Dan Shalon.
    1:06:00 Drew Burroughs is our technical director.
    1:06:02 Thank you for listening to the PropG Pod
    1:06:04 from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
    1:06:07 We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercenome Mouse,
    1:06:08 as read by George Hahn.
    1:06:10 And please follow our PropG Markets Pod
    1:06:12 wherever you get your pods
    1:06:14 for new episodes every Monday and Thursday.
    1:06:17 (upbeat music)
    1:06:26 [BLANK_AUDIO]

    Jay Shetty, a #1 New York Times bestselling author, award-winning podcast host of On Purpose, Chief Purpose Officer of Calm, and purpose-driven entrepreneur, joins Scott to discuss his journey from monk to media mogul, the business of podcasting, and the key to successful relationships.

    Follow Jay on Instagramsubscribe to his podcast On Purpose, and sign-up for his newsletter.

    Subscribe to No Mercy / No Malice

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  • Scott’s Thoughts on Bitcoin, How to Stand Out When Applying to a Job, What to Do With an Inheritance

    AI transcript
    0:00:02 – Okay, business leaders, are you here to play
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    0:00:31 ♪ Herama ♪
    0:00:35 – Behold, my name is Maximus Entertainmentus
    0:00:38 and I come to you with big stars in big dramas
    0:00:42 like Gladiator 2, Dexter, Original Sin, and 1923.
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    0:00:55 and you could win one of millions of prize
    0:00:58 like a cash prize, gift card prize, rewards prize,
    0:01:01 and even a McD’s food prize.
    0:01:03 Say yes to McDonald’s new game.
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    0:01:10 Codes available until March 3rd.
    0:01:11 Intercodes by March 24th.
    0:01:13 Chances of winning based on code entry time.
    0:01:14 Rules and app.
    0:01:18 – Welcome to Office Hours of PropG.
    0:01:20 This is the part of the show where we answer questions
    0:01:21 about business, vector, entrepreneurship,
    0:01:22 and whatever else is on your mind.
    0:01:25 If you’d like to submit a question,
    0:01:26 please email a voice recording
    0:01:28 to officehours@propgmedia.com.
    0:01:31 Again, that’s officehours@propgmedia.com.
    0:01:32 So with that, first question,
    0:01:35 and also I have not heard or seen these questions.
    0:01:40 – Hi, Professor Galloway.
    0:01:42 Thank you for your time.
    0:01:43 My name is Mike.
    0:01:44 I’m 35 years old.
    0:01:47 I live on Long Island in Nassau County.
    0:01:51 I have a modest job and my wife’s a teacher in Brooklyn.
    0:01:53 My question is, what will happen to the value
    0:01:56 of my limited wealth and that of other Americans
    0:01:59 that don’t have Bitcoin when the US buys a strategic reserve
    0:02:01 and there’s more widespread adoption?
    0:02:04 Will the value of my retirement portfolio collapse?
    0:02:05 I’m worried about losing everything
    0:02:07 in my family falling behind.
    0:02:09 I feel like I’m gambling on which currency
    0:02:13 will be more prevalent or even exist in 20 to 30 years.
    0:02:15 What should we do?
    0:02:15 Thanks.
    0:02:18 – Hi, Mike from Long Island.
    0:02:22 So you’re 35, sounds like you’re in a good relationship.
    0:02:23 You both are working.
    0:02:26 Your wife’s doing something important as a teacher.
    0:02:29 So the first thing is to recognize you’re young.
    0:02:30 Sounds like you’re in love.
    0:02:31 You’re both employed.
    0:02:33 Things are pretty good for you.
    0:02:36 So okay, so the honest answer to your question
    0:02:37 is nobody knows.
    0:02:40 I talked to Michael Saylor and when I leave his,
    0:02:41 I had lunch with him.
    0:02:42 When I leave the lunch,
    0:02:43 I think I should put everything into Bitcoin.
    0:02:44 And then an hour later, I’m like,
    0:02:45 “Wait, what is Bitcoin again?”
    0:02:49 Anyway, so the bottom is nobody knows.
    0:02:51 Trump recently announced that his administration
    0:02:52 will be considering the creation
    0:02:55 of a national digital asset stockpile.
    0:02:58 Well, this really isn’t quite a strategic reserve.
    0:02:59 It could still have a massive impact
    0:03:01 on America’s involvement with cryptocurrencies,
    0:03:03 specifically if the US government weighs in
    0:03:05 and buys a shit ton, the price would go up.
    0:03:07 Currently, America holds more Bitcoin
    0:03:08 than any other government
    0:03:10 as a result of large scale asset seizures,
    0:03:12 about 5 billion as of 2023.
    0:03:14 Even so, they’ve sold none of it.
    0:03:16 Countries including Germany, Hong Kong,
    0:03:18 Russia, Brazil and Poland are all taking steps
    0:03:21 to review Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
    0:03:23 In the past 10 years, Bitcoin is up over,
    0:03:26 Jesus Christ, 48,000%.
    0:03:29 In the past year, it’s up 140% since the election,
    0:03:30 it’s up 50%.
    0:03:32 So, okay, what do you do?
    0:03:34 The genius of Bitcoin in my mind
    0:03:37 is they’ve come up with this incredible means
    0:03:41 of creating a somewhat credible sense of scarcity.
    0:03:42 What do I mean by that?
    0:03:45 We keep printing more dollars that we’ve had inflation,
    0:03:48 so you could argue that the value of the dollar
    0:03:50 goes down every year.
    0:03:52 You know, I bought a house,
    0:03:56 every house I bought 30 years ago is worth,
    0:03:57 I wish I’d never sold it,
    0:03:59 is worth six to 10 times what I bought it for,
    0:04:00 more than inflation.
    0:04:03 Is that because the asset’s got them in value
    0:04:04 and it’s producing more rent?
    0:04:07 No, it’s because there are more dollars chasing
    0:04:10 fewer assets, that’s the definition of inflation.
    0:04:12 Or simply put, the dollars you throw into your mattress
    0:04:14 get worth less and less every year,
    0:04:16 because we keep producing more of them.
    0:04:19 Bitcoin has created this credible feeling
    0:04:22 that because of the algorithm or the structure
    0:04:26 where it requires more and more numbers to be thrown
    0:04:29 at an algorithm or at a math problem,
    0:04:31 that it takes more energy, it limits the supply,
    0:04:33 and they say they’re gonna stop mining Bitcoin
    0:04:35 at 21 million coins.
    0:04:37 And the market believes it, so the market says,
    0:04:40 all right, this is a credible store of value
    0:04:43 and a place to hedge inflation.
    0:04:45 It’s also a place to hedge currency risk
    0:04:47 if you’re in Argentina and your pesos
    0:04:49 are worth 30% less every month.
    0:04:51 You immediately get them and there’s currency controls,
    0:04:53 meaning you can’t trade it for dollars,
    0:04:55 you immediately go into Bitcoin.
    0:04:58 So there is real use cases here, right?
    0:04:59 It’s not a payment system.
    0:05:02 I’ve never been paid or paid anyone in Bitcoin.
    0:05:03 I don’t see this having a lot of utility.
    0:05:08 I just don’t use the blockchain, call me old fashioned.
    0:05:10 So the question is, what do you do?
    0:05:13 I think it’s highly unlikely and I wouldn’t bring your hands
    0:05:15 too much or spend too much time worrying
    0:05:17 that your assets are gonna go to zero
    0:05:21 because of Bitcoin and the America’s decision
    0:05:24 or not decision to create a strategic reserve of Bitcoin.
    0:05:28 Well, you might wanna do is maybe put two, three,
    0:05:31 4% of your net worth into Bitcoin.
    0:05:32 That way you’re a little bit hedged
    0:05:34 and if it does go up two, three, 10 fold,
    0:05:37 you feel as if you’ve participated in the upside.
    0:05:41 I would not go all in on this much less really anyone asset.
    0:05:43 If you’re making some money,
    0:05:45 my guess is your wife has good benefits.
    0:05:47 You max out your 401k,
    0:05:48 anything that’s matched or tax deferred,
    0:05:49 try and match that out,
    0:05:52 try and get money taken out of your paycheck
    0:05:54 so it’s never in your hands
    0:05:55 and make sure you’re diversified
    0:05:57 and in low cost index fund.
    0:06:00 So if you’re worried about crypto
    0:06:01 or you think that in fact,
    0:06:04 it’s going to be something that might take off,
    0:06:05 put a little bit of money in,
    0:06:08 don’t put all three or 4% or 5% in at one time,
    0:06:11 dollar cost in because it’s a highly volatile asset.
    0:06:13 But if you want to hedge a little bit
    0:06:15 against the upside or the downside
    0:06:17 of your current portfolio, then yeah,
    0:06:19 put a little bit of your money into,
    0:06:21 I would just probably do Bitcoin.
    0:06:23 I think some of the other shit coins are just too volatile
    0:06:25 and you end up staring your phone all day.
    0:06:27 But sure, dip your toe if you think,
    0:06:29 if that’s going to make you feel a little bit better,
    0:06:31 but I wouldn’t lose sleep thinking
    0:06:33 that all other assets are going to crash.
    0:06:35 Thanks for your question.
    0:06:37 Question number two.
    0:06:39 – Hi, Prof. G. I’m Peter from Boston.
    0:06:41 I got my first job out of school
    0:06:43 nearly four years ago at a small firm
    0:06:45 and for the first time I’m looking to change positions
    0:06:48 to a larger company with a deeper talent pool
    0:06:50 for mentorship and better growth opportunities.
    0:06:51 In my current role,
    0:06:54 I was able to take on a lot of responsibility early on
    0:06:56 due to the fact that we were a small team
    0:06:58 and grew rapidly since I started.
    0:06:59 As someone who has been
    0:07:01 on the other end of the hiring process,
    0:07:02 do you have any advice on how to stand out
    0:07:05 when my experience and abilities are greater
    0:07:08 than what the number of years on my resume might suggest?
    0:07:09 To phrase another way,
    0:07:11 how do I know if I’m just a big fish
    0:07:13 in a small pond aiming too high?
    0:07:14 Thanks for your time.
    0:07:16 – Everyone thinks they’re,
    0:07:17 well, thanks for the question.
    0:07:18 Everyone thinks they’re aiming too high
    0:07:19 until they hit the target.
    0:07:22 I’ve never been qualified to do anything I’ve ever done.
    0:07:23 I wasn’t qualified to get a job at Morgan Stanley.
    0:07:25 I definitely wasn’t qualified to get into business school.
    0:07:26 I wasn’t qualified to start a strategy.
    0:07:29 I’ve never been qualified to do anything I’ve ever done.
    0:07:32 So just put that away thinking that you’re aiming too high.
    0:07:33 You may not hit the target.
    0:07:35 You may apply to be a VP somewhere
    0:07:37 and they say, “Sorry, you really aren’t qualified.”
    0:07:40 But the way you do this is you start interviewing.
    0:07:44 And the easiest questions are the hardest to answer.
    0:07:47 And that is, you know what they’re going to ask you.
    0:07:48 Why should we hire you?
    0:07:50 What’s different about you, right?
    0:07:53 What do you bring to this company that’s unique?
    0:07:55 Yeah, why do you want to work here?
    0:07:58 And what do you do to try and improve
    0:08:00 your, you know, your sustainable advantage
    0:08:03 or these assets that are differentiated, right?
    0:08:05 In sum, what differentiates you?
    0:08:07 Why is it relevant to us?
    0:08:08 And how do you, what practices
    0:08:10 or what do you do that makes it sustainable?
    0:08:12 So you literally want to show up
    0:08:15 and kind of act like they’d be crazy not to hire you, right?
    0:08:18 I also find it kind of a hack in interviewing
    0:08:19 to get the person to like you
    0:08:21 because a lot of this is based on relationships
    0:08:23 and how they feel about you after the interview
    0:08:25 is start asking them questions.
    0:08:28 People are narcissists or they’re self-involved
    0:08:30 and they love talking about myself.
    0:08:33 So Lisa, how did you get involved at Salesforce?
    0:08:36 Or, you know, what do you like about working here?
    0:08:39 Or when you look at my skills, what do you think?
    0:08:41 Do you think I’d be a good fit here?
    0:08:44 So, you know, what you want to figure out
    0:08:46 and you want to be confident is to say, okay,
    0:08:47 I think I’d be great at this,
    0:08:50 but is this the right fit for me?
    0:08:51 You know, start asking them questions.
    0:08:53 Who does really well at Salesforce?
    0:08:56 Or I’m just using that as an example.
    0:08:58 But the key here is you, you know,
    0:08:59 you miss all the shots you don’t take,
    0:09:02 just start interviewing and find out
    0:09:05 if in fact you’re in that weight class.
    0:09:09 But circling back, you know, everyone’s an imposter.
    0:09:11 Everybody thinks they’ve fooled people, not everybody.
    0:09:12 Most people think they’ve fooled people
    0:09:15 when they get the job or get into graduate school
    0:09:17 or get a high character boyfriend or girlfriend.
    0:09:19 So, yeah, aim high.
    0:09:22 If you miss, don’t take it too seriously, keep aiming.
    0:09:24 And if you really want to see what your currency
    0:09:26 is in the marketplace, then go into the marketplace
    0:09:27 and try and start interviewing.
    0:09:29 Thanks for the question.
    0:09:31 We have one quick break before our final question.
    0:09:32 Stay with us.
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    0:09:57 And what if that data could get you those answers right away,
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    0:11:57 That’s voxmedia.com/sxsw.
    0:12:00 (upbeat music)
    0:12:07 – Welcome back, question number three.
    0:12:10 – Hey, ProfG, I’m Josh, a 27-year-old from Mexico
    0:12:13 working in marketing for a large multinational company.
    0:12:15 Thank you for everything you do.
    0:12:17 Your content really inspires and helps my day-to-day,
    0:12:19 so I really appreciate it.
    0:12:21 Sadly, my father passed away last year
    0:12:25 in getting with an inheritance that I will just receive.
    0:12:27 This has left me with a financial question.
    0:12:30 My first thought was to buy two apartments,
    0:12:32 since it’s money that I didn’t really work for
    0:12:35 and see it as securing something my dad left me.
    0:12:38 However, I know today, renting and investing the money
    0:12:40 in the market make more sense.
    0:12:42 This would also leave me the opportunity
    0:12:45 to use the money for a grad school if I needed it,
    0:12:47 since I know it’s something that could boost my career.
    0:12:50 I’ve been lucky enough to land a job that makes good money
    0:12:52 and have advanced quickly in the corporate world.
    0:12:55 So my question is, what’s your stance
    0:12:57 on renting versus buying, and what would you do
    0:12:59 if you were a 27-year-old male
    0:13:02 that suddenly received a lump sum like this?
    0:13:05 Again, thank you for your thoughts and all the content.
    0:13:06 Cheers.
    0:13:08 – So the first thing you wanna do
    0:13:13 is you wanna put it in a bond fund or a treasury fund
    0:13:15 that’s getting four and a half or 5% right now.
    0:13:18 If it’s $100,000, that’s 5,000 a year,
    0:13:21 low risk or no risk, so you’re getting $400 a month,
    0:13:22 but don’t just let it sit there.
    0:13:26 Put it into some sort of, you know, T-bill fund
    0:13:27 or what do they call it, certificate of deposit,
    0:13:28 whatever you wanna call it.
    0:13:31 Basically, if you put money in at Interactive Brokers
    0:13:34 or Schwab, I think you get between four and 5%
    0:13:36 while you’re trying to figure this out.
    0:13:38 Okay, so in terms of where to put it,
    0:13:41 you wanna lean into your advantage.
    0:13:44 If you understand the local real estate market
    0:13:48 and you or someone in your life could manage those apartments
    0:13:49 and you’re scrappy and maybe know
    0:13:51 how to fix up an apartment,
    0:13:53 buying real estate, fixing it up
    0:13:55 and turning it into rental properties
    0:13:58 is a fantastic way to build wealth slowly.
    0:14:03 I own almost 30 rental units in Delray Beach, Florida
    0:14:05 and they’ve been one of my best investments.
    0:14:09 It’s obviously a lot about when you buy, where you buy,
    0:14:11 and I bought in Florida when no one else wanted to buy,
    0:14:13 which is the time you wanna buy
    0:14:15 ’cause prices were really, really low.
    0:14:17 I bought these things for about an average of 100,
    0:14:19 sometimes 120,000.
    0:14:22 They produce really good rental income
    0:14:25 and my guess is they’ve tripled in value since then,
    0:14:26 but I don’t wanna sell them.
    0:14:28 I wanna have cash flow as I get older.
    0:14:32 So I think rental units, if you have some advantage,
    0:14:34 do you understand the local market so you don’t overpay?
    0:14:36 Do you have the ability to manage them?
    0:14:40 Do you have some skills to improve them, to upgrade them?
    0:14:43 Otherwise, you’d be better off just buying REITs
    0:14:44 than managing your own real estate
    0:14:45 ’cause there really is some headache
    0:14:48 around managing these things.
    0:14:51 I would suggest, and if you don’t have those advantages
    0:14:52 or market knowledge around real estate,
    0:14:53 that you just take the money
    0:14:56 and you put it in low-cost ETFs.
    0:14:59 Not only SBY or QQQ the NASDAQ,
    0:15:02 but start thinking about maybe putting half of it even
    0:15:06 in some sort of diversified, low-cost world index
    0:15:08 sans the U.S.
    0:15:09 Why do I say that?
    0:15:11 The U.S. has become very expensive
    0:15:13 and while, I mean, what do you know?
    0:15:15 You want low-cost, you want diversification,
    0:15:17 you want an index fund or an ETF,
    0:15:19 but you’re still, to a certain extent,
    0:15:22 trying to find alpha and pick stuff.
    0:15:26 So even though you’re picking all of the S&P with SPY,
    0:15:28 I think the S&P, I would argue,
    0:15:31 is historically expensive, maybe even overvalued.
    0:15:32 I was with a buddy of mine
    0:15:36 who runs Private Wealth for JPMorgan
    0:15:37 and he was saying, I said,
    0:15:39 the market cap of the U.S. right now
    0:15:43 is equivalent to half of the total market cap of the globe.
    0:15:45 And he said, actually, it’s worse than that
    0:15:46 ’cause if you counter in debt,
    0:15:48 70% of the capital markets are in the U.S.
    0:15:52 So if you add up the money corporations have borrowed
    0:15:55 and U.S. borrowing, or consumer borrowing,
    0:15:57 plus the value of our stock market,
    0:16:00 70% of the value is supposedly registered in the U.S.
    0:16:04 So if someone said to you, you can buy the U.S. for $70
    0:16:07 or you can buy the rest of the world for $30,
    0:16:08 I would argue there’s more upside
    0:16:11 to buying the rest of the world for $30.
    0:16:14 So I would use a robot advisor to spend some time on AI
    0:16:18 and say I want low cost index funds.
    0:16:22 And I also wanna make sure that I’m not only diversified
    0:16:26 within the U.S. but I’m diversified to a certain extent
    0:16:28 around my investments from the U.S.
    0:16:31 But low cost ETFs or index funds.
    0:16:34 Also, it sounds if you’re doing well,
    0:16:39 I’d be reticent or careful to blow that money
    0:16:41 or invest that money in grad school
    0:16:43 unless you really think it’s gonna pay off
    0:16:46 because you’ve been given a gift from your father,
    0:16:48 his hard work, his time.
    0:16:51 And at your young age at 27,
    0:16:55 I don’t know, say it’s $50,000.
    0:16:56 By the time you’re 67,
    0:16:59 which will happen much faster than you think
    0:17:01 with a low cost ETF,
    0:17:05 you’re probably gonna have a really nice nest egg
    0:17:07 or something to fall back on.
    0:17:09 So, and I would imagine that’s what your father wanted.
    0:17:10 So I’m not saying don’t invest in yourself,
    0:17:11 don’t go to grad school,
    0:17:15 but maybe be very selective if you’re doing well
    0:17:18 at your job and make sure you can get some financial aid.
    0:17:20 Just because I hate to see kids
    0:17:23 borrow a lot of money or spend a ton of money on grad school
    0:17:26 when it may not provide the pop that they’re anticipating.
    0:17:27 Then that never used to be an issue.
    0:17:28 It always used to be worth it.
    0:17:31 Now you actually have to do the math.
    0:17:32 Let me back up.
    0:17:35 This is a really good problem.
    0:17:37 Congratulations to you, but again, low cost ETFs.
    0:17:42 And I would do say 50, 60% US, 40% international.
    0:17:43 If you wanna lean into real estate,
    0:17:44 make sure you know what you’re doing
    0:17:47 and you have some advantages there.
    0:17:48 But again, this is a good problem.
    0:17:50 And I’m sorry about your father’s passing.
    0:17:52 It’s something we all deal with,
    0:17:54 but it’s something I don’t think any of us are prepared for.
    0:17:56 It’s heartbreaking when it happens.
    0:17:58 So I’m sorry about your dad.
    0:18:01 That’s all for this episode.
    0:18:03 If you’d like to submit a question,
    0:18:04 please email a voice recording
    0:18:06 to OfficeHouras@PropertyMedia.com.
    0:18:09 Again, that’s OfficeHouras@PropertyMedia.com.
    0:18:21 This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez.
    0:18:23 Our intern is Dan Shalon.
    0:18:25 Drew Burroughs is our technical director.
    0:18:27 Thank you for listening to the “Property Pod”
    0:18:29 from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
    0:18:30 We will catch you on Saturday
    0:18:33 for “No Mercer No Mouse” as read by George Hahn.
    0:18:35 And please follow our “Property Markets” pod
    0:18:38 wherever you get your pods for new episodes
    0:18:39 every Monday and Thursday.
    0:18:42 (upbeat music)

    Scott talks about Bitcoin, explaining why it won’t replace traditional investments and why long-term diversification matters. He then shares tips on standing out in job applications and gives advice on investing inheritance money.

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  • Raging Moderates: What’s Trump’s Endgame in Ukraine?

    AI transcript
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    0:00:47 in it to win meet your next MVP net suite by Oracle net suite is your full
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    0:01:15 behold my name is Maximus entertain us and I come to you with big stars in big
    0:01:22 dramas like gladiator to Dexter original sin and 1923 stream paramount plus for
    0:01:28 699 a month welcome to raging moderates I’m Jessica Tarlow I’m Tim Miller Tim
    0:01:34 this is the banter section how are you hey banter I’m just happy to be in here
    0:01:39 for Scott you know I think that I’m gonna be a downgrade in certain manners and
    0:01:44 upgrade in hair you know we’ll see what the what the people think we will see
    0:01:46 what the people think I think they’ll be excited to see if they were super
    0:01:49 excited when you joined us but we were together all three of us it was fun it’s
    0:01:54 good I mean I’d rather be raging with you guys than I don’t maybe you have a
    0:01:58 view on this I think not raging with the dams on the hill I don’t I’m not
    0:02:03 feeling a raging yes no democratic snoozing yeah I’d rather be raging with
    0:02:09 the moderates than snoozing with the progs heavy for the banter section no
    0:02:13 no I’m good with it you want to talk about Marty ground times no I don’t want
    0:02:16 to talk about I mean if you want to talk about Marty ground hiding in your
    0:02:23 house we could do that but do you really think that they’re snoozing or we’re not
    0:02:28 paying attention it’s a good question I think that they are doing a lot of stuff
    0:02:35 that people who are who read hill newsletters and who like care and who
    0:02:39 know a lot about what’s happening in the federal government I think they are
    0:02:46 seeing Democrats I think that anyone who’s a casual observer of politics is
    0:02:51 seeing only Donald Trump and Yvonne Musk and Travis and Taylor I think that’s
    0:02:54 like the material that they’re giving and so I don’t know if they’re
    0:02:59 snoozing so much as they’re not yelling you know and I feel like they could
    0:03:04 probably benefit from some yelling that resonates outside of yelling is the
    0:03:12 trick for that one because I have seen some yelling and I have hated it in the
    0:03:18 right kind of context you know I’m open to singing and chance but you know maybe
    0:03:23 maybe we could work on the language of the chance a little bit yeah we’re
    0:03:27 getting lapsed by the YMCA so you got to think about that we’ve given I the gays
    0:03:30 gave away YMCA well you don’t even want it back I know I made it official it was
    0:03:34 a long it was not a you know it was it was not a battle in the culture where
    0:03:39 we expected but it was a battle that was thrust upon us and I think for a
    0:03:44 moment during the Biden era we had felt like we’d taken YMCA back from the
    0:03:49 magas and unfortunately I think that is one L we just have to take it’s over now
    0:03:54 and the village people in YMCA despite the fact that that is a song about
    0:03:58 cruising in gay gyms the magas have taken it from us and I don’t think we’re
    0:04:01 ever gonna get it back it’s unfortunate I don’t think you’re gonna hear a lot of
    0:04:07 YMCA at gay pride this year no probably not abracadabra by Lady Gaga instead I
    0:04:09 think you’ll be hearing a lot of abracadabra it’s a pretty good upgrade I
    0:04:14 think so did you watch any of the SNL 50 stuff I was in and out I was watching
    0:04:19 White Lotus and I was you know podcast prepping so I caught a little bit of it
    0:04:24 I really liked a couple of the Eddie Murphy segments Eddie Murphy being
    0:04:30 Tracy Morgan was hilarious Eddie Murphy doing some borderline inappropriate
    0:04:34 prison rape jokes with Will Ferrell and like one of the very last segments I
    0:04:38 also really liked those are my big takeaways prison rape is always a
    0:04:43 highlight I said multiple times to my husband that I can’t believe this show
    0:04:47 is happening like if it weren’t the SNL 50 there’s no way these jokes would have
    0:04:50 made it in but I’m pretty sure everybody showed up and they were like we are not
    0:04:55 playing by 2025 standards we’re playing by whatever year we were actually on the
    0:05:01 show and it was a lot of it was hilarious but I was overwhelmed by
    0:05:05 Cher I don’t know if you saw these shots of like Kevin Costner losing his mind
    0:05:10 and Billy Crystal watching this 78-year-old woman look like a 30-year-old
    0:05:14 woman belting out if I could turn back time which I think the gaze still we
    0:05:24 still have and now to the show and I’m keeping us on time which is not Scott
    0:05:29 strong suit so how’d I do in the banters I think you did great I don’t know we’ll
    0:05:33 see okay so in today’s episode of raging moderates we are discussing Trump’s plan
    0:05:37 to end the war in Ukraine Trump’s lifeline to Eric Adams and the state of
    0:05:42 anti-Trump Republicans your specialty all right let’s get into it big moves on
    0:05:46 the world stage last week Trump says he had a highly productive call with
    0:05:50 Vladimir Putin claiming that they’re now working closely on a Ukraine peace deal
    0:05:55 he even floated the idea of a future sit-down with Putin this all came after
    0:05:58 Russia released American teacher Mark Fogle which Trump called a quote sign of
    0:06:04 good faith meanwhile Kiev is on edge after a drone strike hit Chernobyl just
    0:06:07 days after Zelensky asked the US for more aid and in Europe leaders are
    0:06:11 scrambling an emergency summit is set for Monday so that’s today so by tomorrow
    0:06:15 you may have an update a man fears that Trump’s outreach to Russia is leaving
    0:06:19 them isolated UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer called it a once in a
    0:06:23 generation security moment vice president JD Vance warned that Russia could face
    0:06:27 economic and military pressure if it doesn’t negotiate in good faith but in
    0:06:31 Munich he took aim at European leaders instead claiming their real threat isn’t
    0:06:35 Russia or China it’s their own policies on free speech and refusal to work with
    0:06:40 the hard-right parties in government back at home not much better the White
    0:06:43 House is clashing with the press again this time banning an AP reporter from
    0:06:48 the Oval Office for refusing to call the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America the
    0:06:53 AP is now accusing the administration of violating the first amendment let’s talk
    0:06:59 Ukraine first what do you think the game here is I mean you can start with Pete
    0:07:04 Hague Seth’s maiden voyage which did not go well and he’s walking things back
    0:07:11 within 24 hours but what do you think Rubio and Trump and Vance want for
    0:07:15 Ukraine well as a I guess cradle neocon I don’t know if the neocons exist anymore
    0:07:20 I have a ton of thoughts about this I first just really quick because this I
    0:07:23 think it’s got lost and I’m obsessed with the crypto element of everything that’s
    0:07:27 happening the hostage trade or we’re gonna call it mark Fogel very happy
    0:07:33 Fogel’s back that’s great news but what got missed was the person that got let out
    0:07:39 on our side was like one of the original crypto scammers who was running a
    0:07:46 massive crypto scam that allowed Russia to you know avert sanctions you know by
    0:07:50 by paying for things you know using using crypto rather than you know cash and
    0:07:54 going through the regular banking system I only say that just because I just
    0:07:59 everybody should just like make a mental note of that because I think that the
    0:08:04 crypto corruption that is coming over the next four years might end up being one
    0:08:08 of the biggest stories that happen bigger than the Trump coin it’s
    0:08:11 interesting well it’s related the Trump quite it’s all related right like I
    0:08:17 mean I think that that’s how people can manage it well they just say okay we
    0:08:21 know he’s a grifter who does things like this but it’s so much bigger than that
    0:08:25 and the trade wasn’t publicized at all it took days for anyone to know if we
    0:08:30 got if we had to trade anything for Mark Fogel yeah for sure and so obviously
    0:08:33 they’re bad people getting traded and all these things like Victor boot got
    0:08:36 traded during the Biden administration so I and I’m happy Mark Fogel is home so
    0:08:40 it’s like less a commentary on like the particular trade than just like it’s
    0:08:43 interesting where the priorities work like that the first Russian person out
    0:08:49 is this crypto scammer person doing the deal Steve Whitcoff his son is business
    0:08:55 partners with the Trump kids on their crypto scam right so like that’s not a
    0:08:59 coincidence all right I’m not I’m not the always sunny guy putting yarn against
    0:09:03 the wall here like it’s a pretty direct connection directly to Trump’s pocket so
    0:09:10 anyway the broader deal I mean like the sad part about this is that just like we
    0:09:13 appear to be on the side of the bad guys I mean I think that JD did some tough
    0:09:18 talk but what is happening is we have this meeting in Saudi that you referenced
    0:09:23 the Ukrainians aren’t even invited like we’re having a bilateral with the
    0:09:29 Russians who invaded Ukraine and who we are sanctioning currently to try to cut
    0:09:34 a deal that Ukraine isn’t even at the table for and Europe is having a separate
    0:09:37 you know that the Europeans are having a separate meeting at the same time as you
    0:09:41 mentioned Kirsten we’re like the UK is out there saying we’re gonna put boots on
    0:09:46 the ground if necessary peacekeeping troops to support Ukraine and so like in
    0:09:50 this moment like we’re giving some mixed signals from the White House but
    0:09:56 directionally most of the signals are that we are sympathetic to the invaders
    0:10:01 to the autocrats to the people that are we’re attacking a free democratic
    0:10:05 country like this you know whatever you thought bad about American foreign
    0:10:11 policy in the past like this is like a massive shift like this is not just a
    0:10:15 bad judgment call it’s like it’s the fact that it seems like that we’re
    0:10:20 supporting you know the countries that are in conflict with what the American
    0:10:25 values have been in the post-World War II era so like at the top level like that
    0:10:28 is the thing to me that’s the most striking and when you looked at these
    0:10:33 press conferences both Hegseth and Trump can’t remember if answers asked this but
    0:10:36 definitely Hegseth and Trump were asked you know as part of these
    0:10:40 negotiations what are you asking Russia to give up and neither of them could
    0:10:44 answer I get Hegseth gives like a two minutes of gobbledygook because you
    0:10:48 know that he couldn’t come up with anything and Trump starts attacking
    0:10:52 Europe during the answer to that question and so I think that kind of
    0:10:55 tells you all you need to know yeah I think there was something about shooting
    0:11:00 values and that you can’t do that and Pete’s answer I can’t really get to
    0:11:04 calling him Secretary Hegseth yet I’m still in in Pete mode you and Pete
    0:11:13 pals did you guys not drinking buddies we we have socialized but no comment no I
    0:11:17 totally agree with you and one thing that’s been sticking out to me is how
    0:11:24 quickly everybody has folded from who they were beforehand because at least I
    0:11:28 was holding on to the idea I know I know Mike Waltz really well the National
    0:11:32 Security Advisor were in a foreign policy group together Marco Rubio has been
    0:11:38 very clear about his foreign policy views for a long time and I don’t think
    0:11:43 any of either of those two would have ever thought that they would be part of
    0:11:48 the deal that was going to essentially tell Ukraine you have no future in NATO
    0:11:51 and you’re never getting back your territory I mean even for getting the
    0:11:57 pre-2014 lines even from just a few years ago and maybe that speaks to the
    0:12:01 awesome power of Trump maybe that speaks to the new realignment within the
    0:12:07 Republican Party but I don’t see anyone in positions of power now that are going
    0:12:13 to be holding on to traditional American views of foreign policy in our role in
    0:12:17 the world no I mean Rubio has been basically a full-throated defender of
    0:12:23 the Trump push on this and and that pivot for him has been you know kind of
    0:12:28 happening gradually over time since 2016 when he was you know kind of the
    0:12:33 candidate that was running you know the most maybe even more than chev like the
    0:12:38 most W with like the most Bush compassionate conservatism like type
    0:12:43 platform of any of the candidates and so you know no who knows what how things
    0:12:49 actually go I guess it’s better that Rubio is there in Saudi Arabia than some
    0:12:53 of the other potential people who could be there from the Trump orbit maybe
    0:12:57 there are things happening on the margins that matter and like you said
    0:13:06 Waltz was a very traditional you know type of you know type of Republican it
    0:13:10 is in the house as far as foreign policy is concerned and I interviewed Tom
    0:13:14 Malinowski the Democrat from New Jersey last week who’s he’s a pretty kind of
    0:13:18 hawkish Democrat and so he was like when I got to Congress I was looking to
    0:13:21 Republicans that I could work with like where we might have some overlap on
    0:13:26 foreign policy and and he was like Waltz and Stefanik were the two people that I
    0:13:30 turned to and and he’s like they’ve you know he’s like it’s just Stefanik is
    0:13:35 totally you know gone native with the MAGA and he’s like it appears like Waltz
    0:13:40 is doing the same so and we’ll see how things shake out this week but the
    0:13:44 signs are not positive and it’s really a sign of kind of submission to the
    0:13:48 Trump worldview from all these folks. What do you think is the likelihood that
    0:13:52 Zelensky gets his way so he was speaking at the Munich Security Council and he
    0:13:56 said we need an armed forces of Europe this is after JD Vance essentially took
    0:14:01 a flamethrower to our relationship with Europe in his speech clearly Zelensky
    0:14:08 does not see us as the top partner opportunity for him going forward do
    0:14:13 you think Europe is really going to unify without us? Yeah I mean I wouldn’t see us
    0:14:17 as the top partner opportunity either if I was saying yeah I think Europe will I
    0:14:25 think it could be a positive outgrowth of like the Trump worldview the Europe
    0:14:32 ends up you know stepping up their game on defense and you know takes more
    0:14:35 responsibility and it’s not like I don’t want to say they’re not taking any
    0:14:39 responsibility for their own defense but but actually you know you know sort of
    0:14:43 takes seriously the act that they might have to go it alone at some point and
    0:14:45 you’ve seen this from people and from Europeans at the Munich Security
    0:14:50 Conference leader NATO said something to this effect which was pretty Secretary
    0:14:54 General rather which is pretty alarming so I think that that’s possibly
    0:15:01 positive but like okay that has potential massive negative ramifications
    0:15:07 for us you know I mean I was going for this out there was a woman who is a
    0:15:13 journalist in Ukraine who whose quote just really kind of dropped me in my
    0:15:18 feet over the weekend she wrote she said this her name is Anna Merlekina she’s
    0:15:21 from Moria Paul and like had to flee to Kiev she said when you live in a world
    0:15:24 that is crumbling under your feet the only thing that helps you survive is to
    0:15:27 believe in guidelines and civilized democratic countries that uphold values
    0:15:31 when countries like the United States cease to be pillars there’s nothing to
    0:15:37 hope for I mean that is like that is a jaw-dropping quote from from somebody
    0:15:41 over in Ukraine and I just think that’s reflective of how people in Europe are
    0:15:46 gonna see us and I just believe that there’ll be negative ramifications for
    0:15:50 that down the line we don’t exactly know how or when but you know I think that
    0:15:54 Europe will kind of decide that they should be prepared to go it without us
    0:15:58 going back to I guess we we got into ineffective Democrats very early on in
    0:16:04 the podcast but I do maybe just because I work in communication I guess that I
    0:16:08 always think that there was an opportunity to do better if we had
    0:16:14 messaged properly about this and it doesn’t feel like we have made the case
    0:16:17 this is Democrats and Republicans like obviously you know Mitch McConnell and
    0:16:21 the kind of more traditional sad have been you know screaming from the rooftops
    0:16:26 at a low pitch he doesn’t scream so loud anymore at 83 but have been trying to
    0:16:30 talk about the importance of keeping together the democratic world order and
    0:16:36 that you need to swear countries that share our values and it feels like that
    0:16:41 has just fallen on completely deaf ears and that people have moved to this world
    0:16:48 where it’s what about me first and can’t see the second order effects if we end up
    0:16:52 abandoning Ukraine and so do you think there’s anything we could have done or
    0:16:56 this storm which is taking over the world right was there any way to stop this
    0:17:00 on this one I’ll let you make fun of the Democrats communications and I’ll take
    0:17:04 responsibility for my people because I you do you I think possibly no because of
    0:17:12 Iraq honestly like I do think that it was just such a debacle that they’re you
    0:17:17 know within the country like there has just become an increased skepticism
    0:17:23 from another word like hostility to the idea that we should be involved overseas
    0:17:28 in foreign conflicts and I think it’s very complicated to then say okay well
    0:17:32 this is not a rock right like Ukraine is different like we don’t have troops on
    0:17:36 the ground we’re not trying to do regime change we’re trying to defend an ally and
    0:17:41 that helps us because you know if Russia successfully overtakes Ukraine that’s
    0:17:46 going to demonstrate weakness you know to the you know rules-based order and
    0:17:49 that could cause threats to us down the line right like it’s just it’s a
    0:17:55 complicated point to make right especially in in the face of you know
    0:18:01 really like pretty bipartisan increasingly like opposition to us
    0:18:07 playing this role in the world and so to me the obligation is then like this is
    0:18:12 what Trump has unraveled is that there were a number of things that are not
    0:18:19 really popular among the whole country that leaders in both parties continued
    0:18:23 to do such as USAID because it was the right thing to do and because they were
    0:18:29 responsible leaders right and sometimes that is you know required this is not
    0:18:34 ancient Greece we don’t we don’t have a direct direct democracy on purpose not
    0:18:40 everything should be decided based on 50% plus one vote you know if that is true
    0:18:44 I would have never gotten married right like that was a fell as an opposite
    0:18:48 opposed vote until the Supreme Court did it right like eventually sometimes
    0:18:50 leaders have to do things that are unpopular because they’re the right
    0:18:54 thing to do maybe sometimes they get held accountable for that Trump because he
    0:18:59 doesn’t care about any of that doesn’t like have really core values or empathy
    0:19:04 or care about you know the American idea doesn’t believe that doesn’t believe
    0:19:09 that exists only believes their American interests has wiped away all of that and
    0:19:15 so I don’t know that the Democrats could have you know just by making their
    0:19:22 messaging better you know changed people’s view of this or you know broadly
    0:19:25 America’s role when it comes to aid so I mean I think that you could probably
    0:19:29 give a few of them some lessons on how to make those arguments better having
    0:19:34 watched you on the five and having watched some of them but I don’t know
    0:19:37 that it would have actually made the difference in this case it’s just such a
    0:19:42 big failure when you think about how core Biden made it to his reason for being
    0:19:46 right I mean part of it was I have to get you all through COVID and I can be
    0:19:50 America’s grandpa and I’m the most empathetic man you ever met but it was
    0:19:55 also like this return to normalcy and you know people’s lived experience was
    0:20:00 just so not commensurate with the world that he was talking about that they
    0:20:06 were just like a few right I’m out it was a failure and and I don’t and I mean
    0:20:12 obviously Biden’s inability to deliver a message I had ramifications like what
    0:20:15 you know in this case was it you know was that the key difference I don’t know
    0:20:18 but I mean I think it was a problem across multiple verticals and it
    0:20:22 relates to the democratic stuff now it just he was not he was absent right and
    0:20:25 there was a moment in 2020 where I think people were so fucking sick of the
    0:20:29 news and Trump and COVID like the idea that Biden wouldn’t be in their lives
    0:20:32 every day was kind of people are like that’s a good thing there really some
    0:20:37 people out there that that that was an attractive but like over time as crises
    0:20:42 unfolded as inflation happened as the invasion of Ukraine happened as 10
    0:20:48 7 happened you know people need somebody that can talk to them right and to
    0:20:53 deliver a compelling message and that can you know I demonstrate leadership
    0:20:58 traits or demonstrate strength at least and I think that that was like kind of
    0:21:01 missing from the last couple years a lot of the last administration I would even
    0:21:05 say that the quality of the messaging wouldn’t have mattered as much if it was
    0:21:09 happening as more frequently that people actually just want to physically see you
    0:21:12 and then their minds run wild and obviously there are people who are
    0:21:15 feeding this that are like oh he’s not here because he’s dead but he’ll be
    0:21:20 awake at 2 o’clock and then he’s gonna die again I tell you I never
    0:21:25 compliment Trump so just so you want but like guy has been ever like there was
    0:21:28 this thing on on the left in like resistance world like and during the
    0:21:33 campaign that was like Trump is just as old as Biden and Trump’s you know brain
    0:21:37 is putting to and like the media it’s so unfair that the media is making the
    0:21:41 Biden age thing like the only thing that’s like I can say I don’t think that
    0:21:46 is true like Trump gives off crazy energy not old energy like he just does and
    0:21:49 since he’s been in there I thought I didn’t know I thought it was an unknown
    0:21:54 like could my Trump win and just be so happy that he’s not in jail that he’s
    0:21:59 just gonna golf and like go on the NASCAR track which he did and like do fun
    0:22:02 stuff do the fun stuff and the accoutrements of the presidency and not
    0:22:05 do everything else and that’s been the opposite like he’s given more press
    0:22:09 conferences than anybody like dude is like I lose track of all the press
    0:22:12 conferences he’s done like I missed one on Friday you know but like he’s
    0:22:20 talking to media all the time and I’m like that is how to do it in the modern
    0:22:24 media age like and I think that that is something that those of us who oppose
    0:22:27 them could could learn from. Yes be everywhere all the time even if they
    0:22:31 don’t like you and their feed I have this conversation constantly with people
    0:22:35 I’m like oh but the engagement is so mean and they’re like but it’s engagement
    0:22:41 like that’s what Trump understands like all the hate comments they’re still
    0:22:44 thinking about you you’re still living what did they say like rent-free in your
    0:22:49 head I want to talk to you about the AP but just really quickly did you I
    0:22:52 shouldn’t say did you make anything because it obviously is a big deal about
    0:22:56 the State Department taking down the statement that they that we do not
    0:23:02 support Taiwanese independence and like that feels like it’s flying in the face
    0:23:05 of the way that we’re moving with Russia because obviously that’s China’s red line
    0:23:10 that feels like signature Rubio to me who’s such a big China hawk do you think
    0:23:14 anything’s gonna come of this or maybe I’m wrong about this but I kind of just
    0:23:18 see Taiwan and going the same path as Ukraine right where there is some
    0:23:22 resistance inside the administration that like once you know wants us to be
    0:23:25 stronger in that case and that there’s some resistance among the Republicans on
    0:23:29 the Hill resistance or but some views among Republicans on the Hill and in
    0:23:33 the administration there are more hawkish on Taiwan than Trump’s itself but
    0:23:36 Trump was asked about Taiwan at one of his hundred press conferences we were
    0:23:40 just talking about recently and he goes on a rant about how they’ve been
    0:23:45 stealing our jobs and how you know jobs for the micro the chips need to be
    0:23:51 coming back to America and I just if you just looked at the tone of his comments
    0:23:55 it didn’t sound like the tone of somebody that’s ready to put American
    0:24:01 defense power on the line to protect Taiwan and I just don’t see how a Trump
    0:24:06 Vance administration you know who has just laid the groundwork with their
    0:24:10 followers that they only care about us first they only care about American
    0:24:13 interests first we shouldn’t care about what’s happening on the other side of
    0:24:19 the globe I if I if a conflagration happened with China and Taiwan I just
    0:24:22 don’t know how they can go to their supporters and be like oh yeah that
    0:24:25 actually we need to put in a couple hundred billion here or God forbid
    0:24:30 troops or ships or whatever I like I don’t see it Marco might be trying to fool
    0:24:33 himself into thinking that Trump sees China differently because it’s a bigger
    0:24:39 threat but I I think that if push came to shove we’d see pretty much the same
    0:24:42 thing we see from him on Ukraine all right so we’ve got a rogue Rubio moment
    0:24:46 that’s that’s how I see it and I think Trump likes that actually too by the way
    0:24:50 I will say this I think Trump doesn’t mind if people are confused you know like
    0:24:55 his his he is he benefits from us being right and so I think it’s I don’t think
    0:24:58 that like he’s like mad at Marco over this I think that he’s like well you know
    0:25:03 we’ll keep them on their toes like that’s part of Trump’s mindset and so I my
    0:25:08 point is just like if push comes to shove I don’t if I’m she I’m like these
    0:25:12 guys aren’t gonna go to battle for Taiwan that would be the bad I’d be making
    0:25:16 yeah like let them put whatever they want on their silly website about
    0:25:21 cooperation with Taiwan okay moving on to something else sad I I want to talk
    0:25:25 about the AP getting banned so they were kicked out of the press briefings and
    0:25:30 then they weren’t allowed a photographer and a reporter weren’t allowed on the
    0:25:36 presidential plane and there was a big I shouldn’t it feels so lame to say there
    0:25:40 was a big explainer because it wasn’t even like a real piece of journalism but
    0:25:45 I got a nifty newsletter from Axios talking about the kind of history of
    0:25:49 this administration’s objections to the AP and basically they’re mad that the
    0:25:57 AP style book has used terms that they hate to liberally like gender DEI
    0:26:04 inclusivity etc I’m old enough to remember when the other news stations
    0:26:09 stood with Fox News when the Obama administration wasn’t going to let them
    0:26:13 in to do a pool briefing with the representative from the administration
    0:26:17 and basically ABC NBC CBS they all said if Fox can’t do it then we’re not doing
    0:26:20 it and then they let them in begrudgingly but it doesn’t feel like that moment is
    0:26:24 happening at all like everyone is bemoaning the fact that the AP is
    0:26:29 being excluded but no one is doing anything about it and I mean this feels
    0:26:35 like a pretty obvious we a don’t know what the First Amendment means and be we
    0:26:38 don’t care and we’re running this like the Wild West
    0:26:43 I mean the asymmetry is just so obvious it’s almost like you know it’s like dog
    0:26:47 bites man to even mention it like yeah I mean look so in part I actually would
    0:26:53 be defensive of the other mainstream outlets like because I think that if ABC
    0:26:58 and NBC and CBS said we’re gonna boycott in solidarity with AP I think I feel like
    0:27:07 the Trump administration would be like okay peace you know yeah so I don’t you
    0:27:10 know I mean that’s like the situation I think everybody should just be aware of
    0:27:14 like what time it is and what’s what’s happening out there as far as like the
    0:27:17 more interesting part of this I know obviously there’s the First Amendment
    0:27:25 threat here but to me is how all in these guys are going on like you know
    0:27:29 Patriot what I call patriotic correctness like you know it it’s not
    0:27:37 just enough to stop doing you know pro DEI activities they they need to snuff
    0:27:44 out anybody that is using words or language that they don’t like right and
    0:27:50 to a preposterous extent right like the idea that like everybody has to use the
    0:27:55 new name of the Gulf that they just changed one minute ago like it you know
    0:28:00 or else they’re gonna be banned is ridiculous right like and in some ways
    0:28:03 it’s ridiculous as some of the most extreme things that you see like on the
    0:28:09 far left on PC like demanding that people you know use you know use Latinx
    0:28:12 or whatever right and so I do wonder if it’s going to backfire on them
    0:28:19 eventually I don’t are people really for this like it feels it feels very
    0:28:26 mockable so obviously it’s serious but I do think they are like very much being
    0:28:31 responsive to something that only like a tiny group of far-right trolls who are
    0:28:36 super online actually care about and I don’t know if that’s like a path to
    0:28:41 long-term success for the right now I they definitely just want to get in as
    0:28:45 many kind of gloating laps early on I think that they know that it just gets
    0:28:50 more and more complicated and certainly as we head into special elections and
    0:28:53 the midterms and things like that which hopefully Democrats will perform better
    0:28:58 than we did so you do think that’s conscious like they’re like hey you
    0:29:02 know this isn’t gonna last forever this like gloating honeymoon and so we want
    0:29:06 to like rub their face and shit as for as long as possible like and like there’s
    0:29:09 like a little bit of that I think they can look to past administrations and say
    0:29:13 okay you know your first two years are when you can actually get things done
    0:29:17 right they have control of everything they’re definitely trying it on right
    0:29:21 to the largest extent possible you know let’s ram through four and a half
    0:29:26 trillion in tax cuts like let’s try to cut all of these entitlement programs
    0:29:30 now they realize that they’re not going to get their wish list of all of it but
    0:29:33 they are at a moment where they’re owning the culture and so I feel like
    0:29:37 they’re just taking advantage and saying okay well if we haven’t
    0:29:41 grated ourselves to a segment of the American population that wouldn’t have
    0:29:46 given us their time at all for eight years ago let’s really go for it and you
    0:29:50 can tell that also in the attitude that Caroline Levitt the press secretary has
    0:29:56 about everything I mean she’s so haughty and arrogant in the way that she
    0:30:00 delivers everything which I listen I wish that I had more of that in me I
    0:30:05 wish I didn’t have such a terrible case of imposter symptoms but like to be 27
    0:30:11 years old and to walk up there with that you know it’s a fact this is a fact
    0:30:16 right or like every man in Gaza is wearing a condom that we paid for well
    0:30:23 actually no no that’s not true in Mozambique there are some condoms the
    0:30:28 godsend you know and it’s it’s the Trump bravado that if you say it a certain
    0:30:34 way there’s at least a good amount of people that are gonna believe you and I
    0:30:38 think that they’re living for the moment right it’s like a Yolo administration
    0:30:43 at this point and until there are real consequences I think they’re gonna go
    0:30:47 for it with everything when the AP is calling Mount Denali, Mount McKinley
    0:30:52 right now I mean they’re doing half of the crazy thing I wonder is yours is that
    0:30:56 true like your comment about how they’re owning the culture now I can’t figure
    0:31:02 this out like is that actually true or does it just kind of feel like it’s true
    0:31:06 and or and maybe that’s a distinction without it would I be able to have a
    0:31:10 distinction without a difference right but I don’t I’m kind of like is it just
    0:31:15 political obsessives who feel this way I mean did people’s lives really just
    0:31:18 change like did they change like their mindset on this sort of stuff like
    0:31:25 overnight I don’t know well they’re owning infrequent voters that’s true that
    0:31:32 are 18 to 40 right that and those are real culture vultures those are people
    0:31:35 that are listening to podcasts those are people who are concerned about all of
    0:31:41 the dies in our food those are people who are picking schools for their kids to
    0:31:46 go to and are disenchanted with the public school system and wanting to get
    0:31:50 away from feeling like they have to use gender pronouns on their email
    0:31:55 signatures I mean these are real things that folks are thinking about and so I
    0:31:58 don’t know if owning the culture is the right way to put it because I still
    0:32:04 don’t think that Kid Rock is cooler than Jay-Z that will just never happen but you
    0:32:12 can tell I can’t I can’t fight the 40 and I’m 41 in a couple of weeks no but
    0:32:15 Kid Rock was on Bill Maher on Friday night and I found the interview really
    0:32:19 interesting I mean he was first of all I had forgotten I guess that he played
    0:32:24 Obama’s inauguration in 08 and he was like it’s not as if I liked Obama then
    0:32:32 you just show up and you do this but he was essentially mocking us for like
    0:32:37 liberal leaning people and you knew new to the side of the fence but for freaking
    0:32:41 out about everything all the time and I do think that they are owning the
    0:32:46 culture by making it clear that majority of people feel like it’s just not that
    0:32:52 serious and part of that is a mistake on Democrats part by not making it feel
    0:32:57 like it’s that serious in practical ways not like this guy is actually gonna fall
    0:33:00 but like this is the way that your checkbook is going to be affected this
    0:33:03 is where your kid is going to be affected but like people are walking
    0:33:07 around just saying I don’t think politics is that serious and the
    0:33:11 Republican side seems like that right now yeah it’s interesting I mean that
    0:33:16 goes against you know my entire like like everything in my body wants to
    0:33:19 reject that like you know some like things are singers things matter
    0:33:25 actually but I do I’m it makes me curious about the Federman kind of model
    0:33:30 because he that like that’s kind of what he’s doing basically which is like
    0:33:36 mocking like progressive who are like hyperventilating while like just
    0:33:40 basically voting with the Democrats all the time and I don’t think that every
    0:33:45 Democrat should act like that but I do wonder if there is some potential
    0:33:50 efficacy to having a couple of Democrats out there who have more of a
    0:33:55 slack or energy to try to break through all right let’s take a quick break stay
    0:33:57 with us
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    0:36:33 get covered at pac dot blue cross dot ca welcome back mayor Eric Adams just got
    0:36:36 a legal lifeline but it came from the most controversial figure in New York
    0:36:40 politics Donald Trump the Trump administration’s justice department
    0:36:43 dropped Adams’s corruption case but in a city where Trump remains deeply
    0:36:48 unpopular that reprieve could be more of a political liability than a win now
    0:36:52 Adams is facing accusations of being in Trump’s pocket especially after appearing
    0:36:55 alongside Trump’s borders are Tom Homan and making moves that align with the
    0:36:59 president’s immigration policies meanwhile the case is dismissal has
    0:37:03 sparked a crisis inside Trump’s DOJ a mass resignation of prosecutors
    0:37:08 including one who accused DOJ leaders of looking for a quote fool to take the
    0:37:15 fall have you been following that’s probably not as closely as me here’s
    0:37:18 why I’m into it Hagen Scott and who you know he’s the guy you mentioned who said
    0:37:21 that I expect you’ll eventually find someone who’s enough of a fool or a
    0:37:28 coward to file your file your motion this guy is like special forces dude who
    0:37:34 brown stars whatever I’ll give him a third for this if he only has two but
    0:37:40 who clerked for so I believe he was Kavanaugh and Roberts and then Danny
    0:37:45 also soon who’s the original person who read the letter to Emil Bove she was
    0:37:51 Scalia a Scalia clerk both I mean both like Scott and his letter kind of
    0:37:55 subtly implies that he likes Trump I never get exactly how he put up but he
    0:37:58 was like I could kind of see the perspective he’s like some people might
    0:38:01 be quitting because they’re really upset with this administration like that’s
    0:38:04 not me and I kind of see how a businessman could think this was a good
    0:38:08 deal it’s just not legal like was that’s like that’s TLDR summary of his
    0:38:15 letter and so the fact that it’s these two people who are fed sock folks who are
    0:38:20 stepping out that’s Federalist Society for maybe raging moderates audiences are
    0:38:31 like conservative legal folks who are just saying no who are like standing up
    0:38:35 and saying I’m not gonna go along with this and I think that’s pretty powerful
    0:38:38 and it comes at a time when I don’t know at least maybe just maybe just me or
    0:38:42 maybe just a bulwark people are like thirsting for people to be showing a
    0:38:46 little bit more backbone right now and so I’ve that’s kind of why I’ve been
    0:38:50 following it less on like the legal nerd side but just more on this is kind of
    0:38:56 how you do it as far as standing up to a liberal actions yeah I mean I was into
    0:39:02 it I had been feeling starved I guess for some old-school intellectual
    0:39:07 resistance I guess not people out there with a sign you know like hands off my
    0:39:14 whatever but I like them but they’re not getting us really anywhere at this
    0:39:22 point but it feels like what they’re doing is because it’s a harbinger of bad
    0:39:25 things to come so the Adams case itself or at least what we know about it you
    0:39:29 would expect more I guess in the indictment he definitely broke the law
    0:39:33 and I thought that’s a student’s letter was you know very specific about that
    0:39:37 and that does matter to people that are career prosecutors who take the law very
    0:39:44 seriously but to me I felt a little bit of a if you think that we’re just gonna
    0:39:49 roll over for all of this from like the lighter fare of this which obviously has
    0:39:54 very real implications for New York City politics and national politics even but
    0:39:57 that they’re scared of what this administration is going to be asking
    0:40:03 them to do like Pam Bondi will see us all as folks that are ready to just line
    0:40:08 up and rubber stamp whatever is to come and they can’t help the fact even though
    0:40:13 Bondi was one of the lesser controversial nominees which just speaks to how
    0:40:18 crazy the set of nominees were but you know Pam Bondi was all in on the 2020
    0:40:23 election was rigged out there front and center on that and to me it felt like a
    0:40:30 little bit of a cry for help or at least a signal of like we can’t be there for
    0:40:34 whatever they are going to try because they’ve spent so much time bemoaning
    0:40:39 quote-unquote lawfare and it is very clear that they are looking to weaponize
    0:40:44 everything back for their own benefit yeah and we also had a US trainee down
    0:40:48 here and and Louisiana who quit I think that there are a lot of those warning
    0:40:51 sense happening in this guy the character that I’ve been watching closely in
    0:40:55 this thing is this I kind of hate saying his name and Neil Bove kind of when
    0:40:58 it come like Amel Bove I don’t know it’s kind of a pretentious
    0:41:05 for name for one for a maga but anyway Bove was the person who in this
    0:41:09 assumed letter I think the most powerful thing was like in the first footnote
    0:41:13 where she was like someone was taking notes in the meeting where they told us
    0:41:17 that they’re gonna you know about the deal on the prosecution and he collected
    0:41:22 the notes at the end of the meeting which is like no note taking which you
    0:41:26 know feels very fascistic the oh also kind of dumb sort of and I guess a lot
    0:41:30 of times fascism is dumb like dumb bad it’s like okay well the notes are gone
    0:41:33 but I prefer it when it’s dumb because at least we can talk about it he took
    0:41:39 away the notes yeah and so but he’s the same guy who is at the center of the
    0:41:42 FBI firings right and there’s a whistleblower and if you saw that over the
    0:41:46 weekend where you know they were saying that Cash Patel lied during his
    0:41:51 confirmation hearing because you know the note taking in that meeting the FBI
    0:41:56 meeting said that Bove had said that Cash Patel had and Stephen Miller were
    0:42:01 the ones that were asking for this so they have this like kind of henchmen in at
    0:42:08 the DOJ and so I think that it is pretty it is good that you know because
    0:42:11 there’s always this debate right like should people like this stay would we
    0:42:16 rather have Hagin Scott and in there than whoever replaces them and and I
    0:42:22 think that in my view it’s actually better for these folks to you know kick
    0:42:26 up a cloud of dust here and like draw attention to this person so people can
    0:42:30 watch it so it’s not like happening you know behind the scenes and cloak and
    0:42:34 dagger yeah though you do need good people to stay I said a couple weeks ago
    0:42:39 that we’re it’s going to require thousands of Mike Pence’s to make it
    0:42:43 through whatever is to come over the course of the next four years so I
    0:42:47 agree with you and I think it’s also matters that this is happening so early
    0:42:52 on I can’t believe we’re only in the beginning of the fourth week of this but
    0:42:58 we are going to need people who are interested in the rule of law in a
    0:43:02 traditional sense not in the rule of law just because I said so and Napoleonic
    0:43:07 slash Trump terms to reference his weekend tweeting which did not feel like
    0:43:11 him at all I don’t know that felt more must here’s the thing that made it me
    0:43:15 think it might be him I was reading an article and that quote is actually from
    0:43:21 a movie called Waterloo that’s not from Napoleon and then it’s like it’s
    0:43:29 accredited yeah like the direct quote is from Waterloo the movie the movie is in
    0:43:34 1970 and that to me like feels like it could be a Trump cultural reference like
    0:43:38 he might have watched a 1970s movie about Napoleon like that feels like the
    0:43:41 thing he might have watched but maybe not I don’t know that was the only because I
    0:43:47 agreed with you initially it did feel musky but or somebody or Stephen Miller
    0:43:54 like someone got control of the of the phone for a second I don’t want to
    0:44:00 belabor that Adam stuff that much but part of the deal that I guess he’s made
    0:44:03 but she claims he hasn’t made a deal with the administration but it’s quite
    0:44:07 obvious since he had to sit on the Fox and Friends couch and be humiliated by
    0:44:14 Tom Homan a couple days ago but is that they’ll be easing or he’s going to try
    0:44:19 to use sanctuary city laws as it applies to Rikers and the way that sanctuary
    0:44:25 city policy works in New York is that ice can’t be near the prisons and the
    0:44:30 reason that that’s the case is not necessarily that we don’t want criminals
    0:44:35 to be deported but it’s because they could pick up people who haven’t actually
    0:44:39 been convicted yet people who have just been charged and not gone through their
    0:44:44 due process which they’re entitled to and you have any views kind of thinking
    0:44:50 about the macro issue that I think liberals are finding themselves in is
    0:44:56 having been way too lax about illegal migration and even too lax on people who
    0:45:01 are here illegally and then committing violent crimes on how we should be
    0:45:07 approaching sanctuary policy so my viewpoint which is I think different
    0:45:10 from some of from like kind of the conventional wisdom among Democratic
    0:45:18 strategists is that like maybe like in February of 2025 like the right thing to
    0:45:23 do is to fight these guys tooth and nail and to figure out what happened and
    0:45:28 figure out with how things shake out and in 2026 summer you can decide to be
    0:45:31 strategic and like figure out which issues are the right ones for the for
    0:45:34 the electorate like we don’t fucking know what’s gonna happen over the next
    0:45:40 year so just fight him and try to make him fail my exception to that is like on
    0:45:43 some of these like there are a couple of policies for these two Democrats like
    0:45:48 obviously got out way too far to the left away from public opinion and I just I
    0:45:54 do think sanctuary cities is one of them I’m so like I was like the
    0:45:57 compassionate conservative Bush Republican I was I’m like about as liberal
    0:46:02 on immigration as you can get to like I was part of the group of Republicans that
    0:46:06 the Republican voters wanted to overthrow and like the kind of McCain view of
    0:46:12 the world immigration so like I am extremely sympathetic to immigrants
    0:46:18 and the plight of immigrants who are fleeing you know oppression or fleeing
    0:46:22 whatever and want to come to America that’s what America is about like that
    0:46:26 said like some of the sanctuary you know like some of the sanctuary city stuff
    0:46:30 it just got overboard it was just kind of crazy like and I understand there might
    0:46:34 be like a specific reason why it makes sense to not have ice in the prisons
    0:46:42 but I just think that like fighting over whether prisoner illegal migrants who
    0:46:48 committed crimes in this country should be deported is like maybe one of the
    0:46:52 fights out say I think you can take a pass on this one I should that if you’re
    0:46:59 with Democrats so that would be that that’s my view on that yeah it’s
    0:47:01 definitely the way that a lot of Democrats feel you and you already
    0:47:05 reference John Federman or you’d be like why are you wasting my time with this
    0:47:09 right this is you’re in a privileged position that you got to be here
    0:47:17 illegally in the first place and you can just see the next iteration of the
    0:47:22 Charlemagne ad about giving transgender surgeries for undocumented people in
    0:47:26 prison being written about something like this it doesn’t change the fact that
    0:47:31 the city council has to be the ones to revise sanctuary city laws but I tend
    0:47:35 to agree with you that kicking up a massive fuss about it probably just
    0:47:40 allows Trump and co to continue to say that we’re so out of step with where
    0:47:44 culture is here’s the other thing they are gonna overstep on immigration so
    0:47:47 here’s the area where I would say Democrats do not like don’t need to be
    0:47:53 over cautious right like people do not want dreamers to be deported right like
    0:47:57 people don’t want that people don’t want like people who are in this country you
    0:48:01 know whose parents brought them to this country when their kids you know to be
    0:48:04 deported or to be separated from their families and there are already a couple
    0:48:09 of examples of like very sympathetic individuals who are being either
    0:48:14 detained by ICE like one like there’s like a guy in Newark who is a veteran who
    0:48:22 is like detained by ICE and so I think that there are going to be ways to fight
    0:48:27 immigration you know immigration from a humanitarian standpoint that are
    0:48:31 beneficial for Democrats and they should choose those fights rather than
    0:48:35 fighting over whether prison deportations happen or not under the
    0:48:38 administration. Yeah that leads me to something I’ve been thinking about in
    0:48:44 general about like where Democrats show up and stand up and amplifying stories
    0:48:50 like that on a local level versus in DC I mean DC unless you know unless you
    0:48:54 represent Virginia or Maryland like I don’t think any of this should be going
    0:48:58 on in DC I think you need to be back with your people and talking about stories
    0:49:01 like that there was another one in Milwaukee which I talked about on the
    0:49:06 five and rarely do my colleagues just shut up but they were like oh my god
    0:49:12 that happened where they took in a toddler a mom and a grandmother for
    0:49:16 speaking Spanish and someone had to come with birth certificates they were
    0:49:21 Puerto Rican to get them out of the detention center and the idea of a
    0:49:26 two-year-old in a detention center for allegedly you know where we’re going to
    0:49:31 be holding people that have committed violent crimes and were here illegally
    0:49:36 when they’re Americans and did nothing but speak another language seemed to hit
    0:49:41 the audience hard and so yeah and this is to me and this is what I would say
    0:49:46 local is fine but what you’re doing is I think probably the most useful like on
    0:49:51 Fox and on conservative media platforms and on culturally conservative
    0:49:56 platforms again like people have this totally wrong view of what like the
    0:50:02 manasphere podcasters think about all this stuff yeah like you give specific
    0:50:06 examples like the ones you’re giving like they’re 80% issues like people do
    0:50:13 not want most people besides racist and like extreme you know far-right freaks
    0:50:18 do not want people detained for speaking Spanish in this country like that is not
    0:50:23 something that is popular actually and so if you can focus on a couple of those
    0:50:28 examples and bring them in to the lion’s den I think that is like a use a much
    0:50:33 more useful way to spend time than having a press conference on the hill and
    0:50:37 at Jared Moskowitz I saw was on Fox over the weekend I just think that like more
    0:50:43 is more on this I obviously agree with you and that’s always great when I see
    0:50:49 others showing up not even necessarily to get the clickbait that worked in 2016
    0:50:52 you know how everything was just about owning the other side and there were
    0:50:57 those huge fights now it’s like showing up and being reasonable makes even more
    0:51:01 of a difference because people’s partisan lines have been completely
    0:51:05 scrambled right you can’t predict it anymore in the same way and so if you
    0:51:10 show up like Jared Moskowitz did and you sound reasonable about immigration you
    0:51:13 know he was one of the first ones to say let me in the doge caucus for instance
    0:51:17 but then you hold the line about stuff that really matters and it gets
    0:51:21 amplified like that because he was on you know on primetime they love it
    0:51:25 they’re gonna get the clip out into their ether we’ll get their clip out
    0:51:28 into our ether and suddenly you know Jared Moskowitz is president yeah
    0:51:32 well that’s ups to God’s ears but yeah the prime example of this that I saw
    0:51:36 recently was Zelensky did the Lex Friedman interview Lex Friedman and like
    0:51:40 if you just look at the comments on Lex Friedman’s YouTube which is like he is
    0:51:44 he’s like Magan the Muskway right like he is like contrarian or whatever he’s
    0:51:47 not like a far-right he’s not like a social conservative you know what I mean
    0:51:53 like he’s like a contrarian so he’s in that sort of ecosystem and so it’s like
    0:51:56 that is a mostly anti-ukrain ecosystem Zelensky does the interview and like
    0:51:59 there were a lot of people in the comments so we’re just kind of like huh
    0:52:05 like oh I was expecting to hate him a lot more or he made a couple you know like
    0:52:09 so anyway it’s worth doing that or even people with that in interview in
    0:52:14 particular who are big Lex Friedman people but thought like he went too far
    0:52:18 in pushing him to say that Russia should get to keep territory that they
    0:52:22 obviously illegally took I thought that was even if it was just for that sound
    0:52:27 bite that it was worth the three hours of Zelensky’s time to do it I want to get
    0:52:33 to kind of the future of the anti-trump Republican faction but quickly are you
    0:52:39 pro Cuomo anti Cuomo because he did you see the ad he released the Valentine’s
    0:52:45 Day ad where he’s with all of these older women mostly women of color talking
    0:52:49 about how tough it is right now for New Yorkers and that but we can always find
    0:52:54 a way forward and that the opposite of hate the four letter word that matters
    0:53:00 most is love I think it was the phraseology I am I’m anti Cuomo I think
    0:53:05 that he he handled COVID atrociously in addition to just all of his personal
    0:53:10 misdeeds I maybe have some personal bias I’ve got some friends who are in who
    0:53:17 were in conflict with Andrew Cuomo let’s just say and so I think he’s kind of a
    0:53:25 creep I will say though like Democrats need more people that like quote that
    0:53:31 who are like Cuomo who talk normal and he talks Italian but like you can tell
    0:53:35 he’s being authentically himself he doesn’t talk like a fucking valedictorian
    0:53:42 kid that’s trying to appease the bosses in a PowerPoint presentation and I
    0:53:47 think that Democrats could learn from that and I don’t you know I don’t I’m
    0:53:52 no fan of his in particular but I think the data is people want it and I won’t
    0:53:56 I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s successful in the mayor’s race yeah it’s
    0:54:00 pretty crazy to think about but the amount of normie Democrats that I know
    0:54:05 who don’t like Cuomo for a whole host of reasons whether it’s you know the
    0:54:12 sexual harassment charges or even the management of COVID and lost people in
    0:54:17 nursing homes and just really wanted an apology for him that he couldn’t get out
    0:54:21 there just couldn’t muster the strength to say I would have done things a little
    0:54:25 bit differently which I think would have gone a tremendously long way they’re
    0:54:31 like I could use a competent gangster right now like the city is in shitty
    0:54:36 trouble at this point I hate being on the subway and he feels like when you
    0:54:40 look at Adams on the other side of this and you think I’m not gonna go for
    0:54:45 someone as progressive as like Scott Stringer that he might be the answer
    0:54:56 woof all right one more but one more quick break stay with us
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    0:57:15 welcome back before we wrap and we’ve already been touching this a little bit
    0:57:19 but I want to get into it more deeply with you and there aren’t that many
    0:57:23 Republicans openly pushing back and Trump’s agenda these days Mitch McConnell
    0:57:26 for instance was the lone Republican to vote against confirming Tulsi Gabbard
    0:57:30 an RFK junior and Tim you pointed out on the bullet work that even the Wall
    0:57:34 Street Journal’s editorial board usually a pretty Trump-friendly finally took a
    0:57:39 shot at his economic policies what do you think is the future for the anti-Trump
    0:57:45 Republicans in a party that seems like they’ve given up a bit besides an
    0:57:50 editorial or two yeah there’s no future yeah there’s no future there’s no
    0:57:56 present I I felt like I felt this way for a while it’s I’ll give you a little
    0:57:59 scoop I don’t know if this is a scoop anybody cares about me would would
    0:58:02 care about that’s nobody else would but like I was planning on writing a book
    0:58:07 that was about you know that was the shorthand pitch for it was Trump is
    0:58:11 forever that I just like I felt like that that the MAGA that the Republican
    0:58:16 voters want Trump or something like it right like whatever comes after Trump if
    0:58:22 he ever goes away you know will obviously not be a carbon copy of him
    0:58:27 because he has like a lot of unique traits and he’s an eccentricities and
    0:58:30 like it’s you know you’ve seen how hard it is to copy him at the local level and
    0:58:36 how that has failed in other ways with you know Kerry Lake and others but but
    0:58:42 directionally like the idea that of America first of fighting these culture
    0:58:49 war battles of not caring about norms and institutions and you know not caring
    0:58:53 about like the traditional you know free markets and free people ethos of the
    0:58:58 80s and 90s two thousand Republicans like all of that is gone right and it was
    0:59:03 already going to be gone even if Kamala Harris had won because that’s just what
    0:59:08 that parties are just parties are not actually permanent coherent ideological
    0:59:14 groups they are a reflection of a group of people and that group of people can
    0:59:17 change over time and I might change them up might change then the nature of the
    0:59:23 party and Trump has massively changed the makeup of the Republican Party and as
    0:59:29 a result it will be in his image for at least you know until the next realignment
    0:59:32 for probably a quarter century or something so I just think that is what’s
    0:59:36 happening I think that there will be individual fights on the on the on the
    0:59:39 outskirts right like you mentioned this Wall Street Journal article which was an
    0:59:43 attack on him over tariffs and and pushing for lower interest rates given
    0:59:48 threats for inflation you know if we get into a more normal future in 2028 where
    0:59:51 Trump doesn’t try to run again and like you know there’s a primary there will be
    0:59:55 some people who are like Trumpy or pro-tariff and there’ll be some people
    0:59:58 who are more traditional free market conservative on trade and and on some of
    1:00:04 those issues you know it won’t always fall on the Trump side of the line I
    1:00:07 think that there will still be skirmish little skirmishes in the ideological
    1:00:13 coalition but directionally things are to Trump and I and people nobody is gonna
    1:00:17 stand up to him except for people like Mitch McConnell who are already one foot
    1:00:22 out the door and that’s basically seen for like a decade now do you have any
    1:00:29 idea about what happened during these confirmations to people like Lisa
    1:00:34 Murkowski Susan Collins Todd Young in Indiana or I should say from Indiana who
    1:00:41 was really anti-tulsi for instance I mean is it straight like doxxing
    1:00:45 threatening you with a primary like Bill Cassidy already voted to convict him so
    1:00:52 I don’t this idea that he promised Cassidy to essentially RFK Jr. to not be
    1:00:56 who he is right and to say you can be my dad and you can check in on me every day
    1:01:00 and make sure that I’m not gonna do these things when even the CDC site
    1:01:04 already has information about the flu down so obviously that’s not gonna hold
    1:01:14 up like what level of threatening or trolling was going on to make people
    1:01:18 like this lay down and vote for every single one of these nominees yeah and
    1:01:23 the Joni Ernst thing with eggs that was the was really you know I think the test
    1:01:27 case yeah what are the tip for this I mean I was in I so I worked in Iowa in a
    1:01:33 couple campaigns I was in Iowa like during when all this was happening it was
    1:01:38 like about and I was like at an event with a lot of Republicans and and you
    1:01:42 know it was like in between when she had spoken out and when she had kind of
    1:01:46 fooled it right and there to us to a person I could not find a person at
    1:01:49 this event that thought she was gonna hold the line eventually and there were
    1:01:52 some very pro Joni people there right and and to people who like her and wish
    1:01:55 she would have held the line I got across the board Maga to people who are
    1:02:03 like me who are who are lapsed everybody thought no because the voters wanted you
    1:02:08 know want Trump to get what he wants like that’s what they want and so she
    1:02:12 was just getting totally bullied online phone calls and I think the other
    1:02:16 senators really saw that I think in addition to that I do think these
    1:02:19 private meetings Trump and then basically said to the nominees just tell
    1:02:22 these people whatever they want to hear who cares we’ll figure it out on the
    1:02:26 back end right again because these are not rigid ideologues like it’s it’s does
    1:02:33 not what Trump is so I think that helped you know give a rationale to some of
    1:02:38 these senators to do the easy thing and I also just I just fundamentally don’t
    1:02:42 think anybody was gonna actually stand up besides McConnell who’s one step out
    1:02:45 the door and Rikowski and Collins will choose their spots because they have
    1:02:50 kind of a different sort of brand everybody else I was with Gates at a
    1:02:55 TPS I go to the TPS a annual gathering every year to just kind of well you live
    1:02:59 in Fox world I don’t I want to make sure I’m not in my little bubble my little
    1:03:05 resistance you know form feels like a very place to test it out no it’s fine
    1:03:09 the types of people go to those sorts of things are the people you got to worry
    1:03:11 about are the people who are alone in their basement getting radicalized
    1:03:15 honestly like people that show up to a gathering I’ve at least I found them to
    1:03:19 be relatively sociable I had a few people shit talk me but but I never felt
    1:03:23 unsafe they’re not bad to your face I’ve always found everyone is like I feel so
    1:03:27 terrible that I’ve been calling you the c-word online for three years and I’m
    1:03:31 like well stop doing that and I’m so nice do you want a picture that’s
    1:03:35 hilarious so anyway I was with Gates and I was like why did you drop like I was
    1:03:40 like because I think that you are gonna get through and Gates was like well John
    1:03:47 Curtis the guy from Utah who replaced Mitt told me and I wasn’t it wasn’t an
    1:03:50 interview so I wasn’t taping outside forget the exact line but it was little
    1:03:54 it was something like I would sacrifice my children before I would confirm you
    1:03:58 it was some like very ostentatious comment about and so Gates was like I
    1:04:02 didn’t think you know it was clear I was gonna get through and I said to him I
    1:04:06 was like Curtis would have folded and I like really think I’m right about that
    1:04:10 like I do I do think that there is a lot of behind-the-scenes people you know
    1:04:13 trying to use a little influence they can without creating and get any
    1:04:18 backlash like when push comes to shove like the voters are where their voters
    1:04:24 are and so like that is why you’re not saying anybody like the top young so the
    1:04:30 world actually stand up yeah I’m popular opinion but I don’t think that you have
    1:04:34 to do everything that the voters want like they picked a person who can also
    1:04:38 think for themselves who broadly represents their interests right and
    1:04:42 understands their constituency but can’t think for themselves so if you pick you
    1:04:48 know one of 15 people that you don’t think is unqualified for to kind of lay
    1:04:53 down your marker in the sand and say your children will be vaccinated or we
    1:04:57 will not have someone who thinks Assad wasn’t really that bad that that might
    1:05:03 be good for you long-term but I’m also not running for public opinion me I say
    1:05:06 that to the Republicans I talked to all the time and fewer and fewer of them
    1:05:10 actually want to talk to me so you know maybe that’s part of my why my
    1:05:14 influence isn’t working but I’m like you don’t have to be me I’m not asking
    1:05:20 Republican senators or congressmen to troll Trump online you know to try to
    1:05:26 own him you know to like fight everything like there’s a huge space between me and
    1:05:31 like total submission and it’s just like they’ve kind of decided to abandon that
    1:05:36 whole space like there’s just nobody that has decided to try to occupy that and
    1:05:39 succeed and I think that’s wrong I do I think people could I mean Collins I
    1:05:44 guess as the as the example as the example like I don’t really love Susan
    1:05:47 Collins everything that she’s done but she did manage to occupy that space in
    1:05:51 between total never-trumper and total Trump’s sycophant and it worked for her
    1:05:55 she was like the only senator well this cycle a couple happened but before you
    1:05:59 know during the first Trump she was the only senator that won and went the
    1:06:05 opposite way as the state you know in 2016 and 2020 yeah you’re saying that I
    1:06:14 wasted my dollars on Sarah Gideon no I don’t know if you gave any money to
    1:06:23 Jamie Harrison no I have a friend who is a doctor and loves politics but isn’t in
    1:06:26 the day-to-day insanity she’ll send me like a New York Times article the day
    1:06:30 after and she’ll be like can you believe this and I’m like I need to talk to you
    1:06:33 about how fast the news cycle goes but she’ll regularly send me a link to
    1:06:37 various Democrats and she goes worth my money I’m like well how much money like
    1:06:42 if you want it if you want to be spreading $10 all over the place go
    1:06:48 ahead for it but Amy McGrath is never gonna be the senator that takes a Mitch
    1:06:52 McConnell seat okay thank you so much for being here that’s it for this
    1:06:57 episode thank you for joining us Tim and the raging moderates crew our
    1:07:01 producers are David Toledo and Chinane Onike our technical director is Drew
    1:07:05 Burroughs you can now find Raging Moderates on its own feed every Tuesday
    1:07:09 that’s right it’s own feed there you’ll get exclusive interviews with smart
    1:07:13 voices and politics like our latest guest congressman Pat Ryan follow us
    1:07:18 wherever you get your podcasts also follow Tim in all of Bulwark world and
    1:07:21 thank you for being with us well just me Scott’s not here but he loves you from
    1:07:28 afar I loved it good to be here we’ll do that again soon peace bye

    Jessica and Tim Miller break down the biggest political moves of the week. Trump is making waves on the world stage, claiming a breakthrough in Ukraine talks with Putin—so what’s his real endgame? Back at home, he’s throwing a legal lifeline to NYC Mayor Eric Adams, but is that “help” actually a political liability? Plus, where do Anti-Trump Republicans stand in a party still dominated by him? 

    Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov

    Follow Tim Miller, @Timodc.

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  • Prof G Markets: Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts

    AI transcript
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    0:01:09 Just go to indeed.com/voxca right now
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    0:01:20 Hiring Indeed is all you need.
    0:01:23 – OK, business leaders, are you here to play
    0:01:25 or are you playing to win?
    0:01:27 If you’re in it to win, meet your next MVP.
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    0:01:41 Upgrade your playbook and make the switch to NetSuite,
    0:01:43 the number one cloud ERP.
    0:01:46 – Get the CFO’s guide to AI and machine learning
    0:01:50 at netsuite.com/vox, netsuite.com/vox.
    0:01:53 – Today’s number, 0.004%.
    0:01:55 That’s the chance of being born with a genetic mutation
    0:01:58 that allows you to sleep less than six and a half hours
    0:02:00 each night without any ill effects.
    0:02:05 True story, last night I had six hours of straight sleep.
    0:02:07 The other two were gay, but I woke up fulfilled.
    0:02:20 That’s wrong.
    0:02:22 Let’s enjoy it while it lasts.
    0:02:26 Today’s discussion on profit markets.
    0:02:27 I’m out of breath, by the way,
    0:02:29 ’cause I did about seven minutes of working out.
    0:02:32 – Yeah, I can tell, I can hear it.
    0:02:34 – Oh my gosh.
    0:02:35 – What was that, some push-ups?
    0:02:37 I saw you doing something off night.
    0:02:41 – Secretary Hexhats said that he did five rounds
    0:02:44 of 47 push-ups, so I’m committed to doing five rounds
    0:02:46 of 48, ’cause I’m already very excited
    0:02:48 about whoever’s gonna be 48.
    0:02:51 And I did two sets of 48, so I’m trying to figure out,
    0:02:54 I’m on TikTok and YouTube, trying to figure out
    0:02:59 how to increase your push-up strength.
    0:03:02 But anyways, Ed, what’s going on with you?
    0:03:03 What’s going on with you?
    0:03:07 As I try to out-push up the DUI hire,
    0:03:09 Secretary Hexhats, what’s going on with you?
    0:03:11 – Yeah, I’m doing pretty well.
    0:03:15 I’m in Mexico City, heading to Puerto Escondido tomorrow.
    0:03:19 – Oh, Eduardo, don’t install a biblioteca.
    0:03:20 Where are you staying though?
    0:03:20 It’s like a nice hotel.
    0:03:22 – Yes, a miroval, it’s not that nice.
    0:03:25 It’s okay, it’ll do.
    0:03:26 Yeah, I’m heading out tomorrow.
    0:03:27 We’re going to Puerto Escondido.
    0:03:28 It’s gonna be great.
    0:03:33 I had tacos for breakfast, lunch, and dinner yesterday.
    0:03:35 – That’s the five food groups.
    0:03:36 What’s Mexico City like?
    0:03:38 It’s a hot city right now.
    0:03:39 – It’s great.
    0:03:41 I haven’t seen that much of it yet.
    0:03:43 One thing I did notice that was kind of interesting
    0:03:47 is there are BYD stores and BYD ads everywhere.
    0:03:49 I haven’t seen a BYD vehicle yet,
    0:03:51 but it is interesting.
    0:03:54 I mean, I’ve seen it at least five times.
    0:03:56 You never see that in America.
    0:04:00 So clearly, China’s trying to push that in Mexico.
    0:04:01 It’s kind of interesting.
    0:04:03 But yeah, it’s a beautiful city.
    0:04:04 It’s a good time.
    0:04:06 Going to Contra More later tonight.
    0:04:08 Apparently, that’s the great restaurant.
    0:04:09 Maybe we’ll check out the sojo house, it’ll be good.
    0:04:12 – Ask me where my favorite place to vacation in the world
    0:04:14 is, there’s someone who’s been literally everywhere.
    0:04:17 – What is your favorite place to vacation in the world?
    0:04:21 – Mexico, if I could only vacation one place.
    0:04:22 What’d it be, Mexico?
    0:04:23 I think it might be Mexico.
    0:04:24 Maybe Italy, Mexico, yeah.
    0:04:25 – Really?
    0:04:26 – Yeah, it’s fantastic.
    0:04:30 – Over France, over Italy, over Greece, Mexicans.
    0:04:32 – Oh yeah, you have it all in Mexico.
    0:04:34 You have culture, you have amazing food.
    0:04:35 – The pricing is crazy.
    0:04:38 I mean, everything’s been crazy cheap.
    0:04:41 I had like great meals and it’s been, you know,
    0:04:43 it’s like getting sweet green practically.
    0:04:44 – It’s got sort of that
    0:04:47 making us amazing beach beautiful water vibe
    0:04:49 for about 40% of the price.
    0:04:51 And the people are friendlier.
    0:04:56 Also, it’s got extraordinary architecture, incredible food.
    0:04:59 I just absolutely adore Mexico.
    0:05:00 Anyways, I’m glad you’re there.
    0:05:01 – Glad you’re glad.
    0:05:02 And before we get into the show,
    0:05:04 I just want to promote the market’s newsletter.
    0:05:08 So we’ve expanded this show into a new weekly newsletter.
    0:05:10 We’re breaking down key market moves
    0:05:14 with data-driven analysis and crisp visuals every Monday.
    0:05:18 So please subscribe now at profgmarkets.com.
    0:05:19 I think the newsletter is pretty great.
    0:05:22 It’s kind of everything in the podcast
    0:05:23 and you get to read it in about two minutes,
    0:05:25 sort of exactly what you need on a Monday.
    0:05:27 – I wasn’t a big fan of it at first.
    0:05:29 And then I saw the first one and–
    0:05:30 – You weren’t?
    0:05:31 I thought you, I thought this was your idea, no?
    0:05:32 – It was my idea.
    0:05:36 And then, and then I thought, okay,
    0:05:40 we spend so much time on our No Mercy, No Malice newsletter.
    0:05:41 I mean, it’s taken us 10 years
    0:05:43 to get to half a million subscribers.
    0:05:45 We really haven’t figured out a way to monetize it,
    0:05:47 quite frankly, that’s not why we started it.
    0:05:50 But it’s just this monkey on my back,
    0:05:52 mostly come Thursday night when I’m like,
    0:05:54 okay, what am I going to write about
    0:05:55 that people would actually want to read
    0:05:56 and doesn’t embarrass everybody?
    0:05:59 And then I thought, okay, the notion of another newsletter.
    0:06:02 And then when I saw the work that Mia and team had done
    0:06:05 on the design and we have already sent out a test batch
    0:06:07 and people seem to really like it,
    0:06:11 I think we’re going to be close to 200 or 250,000 subscribers
    0:06:12 right out of the gate.
    0:06:15 So now, now I like it and yes, it was my idea.
    0:06:17 – Yeah, I think it’s a great newsletter,
    0:06:19 I’m excited about it.
    0:06:21 Let’s start with our weekly review of market vitals.
    0:06:23 (upbeat music)
    0:06:30 The S&P 500 was volatile, the dollar declined,
    0:06:34 Bitcoin dropped, the yield on tenure treasuries jumped.
    0:06:35 Shifting to the headlines.
    0:06:38 Inflation came in hotter than expected
    0:06:40 with the consumer price index rising 3% in January
    0:06:44 from a year earlier, prices jumped 0.5% from December,
    0:06:47 which was the biggest monthly increase since the summer.
    0:06:50 All three major indices fell on that news.
    0:06:52 Average tuition at US private schools
    0:06:55 surged to nearly $50,000 this year,
    0:06:58 marking the biggest increase in at least a decade.
    0:07:01 Schools kept tuition steady during the pandemic,
    0:07:03 but rising teacher salaries and material costs
    0:07:06 are now pushing prices higher.
    0:07:08 And finally, the European Union has committed
    0:07:11 to mobilizing 200 billion euros for AI investments.
    0:07:14 50 billion euro will come directly from the EU,
    0:07:18 while more than 20 investors, including Blackstone and KKR,
    0:07:20 have pledged the remaining amount.
    0:07:22 20 billion euros will be set aside
    0:07:24 to fund four AI gigafactories dedicated
    0:07:28 to training large language models.
    0:07:31 So let’s just start with this inflation read.
    0:07:33 Let’s just go over the important numbers really quick.
    0:07:36 So the CPI rose 3% euro a year, core CPI,
    0:07:39 which strips out food and energy.
    0:07:43 And as we’ve discussed, the reason you want to use core CPI
    0:07:45 as opposed to CPI is because food and energy prices
    0:07:46 are very volatile.
    0:07:49 So it can sometimes sort of distort what’s really happening.
    0:07:51 And that rose 3.3%.
    0:07:55 So even higher, this was not a very good report.
    0:07:59 The big drivers were shelter, transportation, medical care.
    0:08:02 But the item that’s getting the most attention here
    0:08:06 is the price of eggs, which has risen 15%
    0:08:11 in the past month alone and 53% in the past year.
    0:08:16 So a carton of 12 eggs now costs more than $8 on average.
    0:08:18 A year ago, it was less than $5.
    0:08:22 And the reason this is happening is kind of interesting.
    0:08:24 It’s because of this outbreak of bird flu,
    0:08:27 which is a common problem in the industry.
    0:08:30 But apparently right now, the outbreak we’re seeing
    0:08:32 is one of the worst we’ve ever seen.
    0:08:34 And this is a huge problem for farmers
    0:08:37 because if you find one single case of bird flu,
    0:08:39 it means you have to kill your entire flock.
    0:08:41 So in the past four months,
    0:08:44 American farmers have killed 15%
    0:08:46 of all of the chickens in America.
    0:08:51 So supply is really low, which is why prices are really high.
    0:08:55 Your reaction, Scott, to this inflation data
    0:08:57 and perhaps eggs specifically.
    0:09:00 – I would say probably the biggest impact it’s gonna have
    0:09:02 with the exception of consumers who really feel it,
    0:09:06 especially those who energy, housing and food
    0:09:07 takes up the disproportionate amount of their income,
    0:09:10 which is 80 or 90% of the American consumer.
    0:09:13 It’s that the market is gonna have to absorb the fact
    0:09:16 that the expected interest rates probably aren’t coming
    0:09:20 as quickly as they thought or in the foreseeable future.
    0:09:22 The number that pops out to me,
    0:09:26 and I had someone who basically ran Obama’s campaign call me
    0:09:27 ’cause I was just on CNN,
    0:09:29 where by the way, I dropped an F bomb, no joke, on CNN.
    0:09:30 – That’s not good.
    0:09:33 – And Dana Bash, who I think should be president,
    0:09:35 if we’re gonna start picking cable news hosts
    0:09:38 to be presidents and secretaries,
    0:09:39 asked me what the Democratic Party needs to do,
    0:09:42 and I listed all these things and some we need
    0:09:44 to be the party of tomorrow and not fucking around.
    0:09:47 And then I said that I’m like, “Oh no, I’m not on a podcast.”
    0:09:50 And literally, Dana and the other hosts looked at me
    0:09:51 like they just got me masturbating.
    0:09:54 They did not know what to do.
    0:09:55 – They’ve never had that before?
    0:09:56 – Oh, it’s happened several times.
    0:09:58 I was raised by a single mother and I was like,
    0:10:01 oh, wait, you mean dropping an F bomb?
    0:10:03 I’m sorry.
    0:10:04 – That was good.
    0:10:05 – That’s why you come here,
    0:10:08 subscribe to our markets newsletter now.
    0:10:12 – I don’t think you’re gonna be on CNN again after this.
    0:10:13 – Well, if I don’t get another show on CNN Plus,
    0:10:17 as far as I’m concerned, my life is over, that’s it.
    0:10:19 Anyway, but I was talking,
    0:10:22 one of the Obama people called me and said,
    0:10:23 “I liked what you had to say,”
    0:10:26 and he specifically zeroed in on, I think,
    0:10:28 the big idea that the Democrats need.
    0:10:31 We need to move from being the party of complaints
    0:10:36 and whining and the seniors who changed jello night outrage
    0:10:38 to the party of the future.
    0:10:40 And I think one of the really interesting ideas
    0:10:43 that one or both political parties should forward
    0:10:46 is just a massive program that provides subsidies
    0:10:49 to the private sector and decreases the ability
    0:10:53 to reject housing permits such that we have a massive influx
    0:10:57 and creation of millions of units in new housing stock.
    0:11:01 And I think this would help level up young people
    0:11:04 and it’s just psychologically so important,
    0:11:07 employ a ton of people, especially a lot of young people,
    0:11:10 especially a lot of young men who over index
    0:11:12 around construction and vocational jobs.
    0:11:14 But what you’re seeing every month
    0:11:16 is an increase in housing costs.
    0:11:18 I mean, do you know what’s about to happen?
    0:11:21 I have a buddy in LA who had his house on the market,
    0:11:24 like a nice little bungalow for $1.1 million,
    0:11:27 which is basically means it was a shack
    0:11:28 if it was in Santa Monica,
    0:11:30 and he just got an offer for 1.8
    0:11:33 ’cause something like 13 or 15,000 dwellings
    0:11:35 have been taken immediately out of the market in LA
    0:11:37 because of the wildfires.
    0:11:42 So I zero in on the housing, but this isn’t a surprise.
    0:11:45 The question is whether it sticks to Trump or not,
    0:11:46 as most things don’t.
    0:11:49 But when you combined an incredibly aggressive
    0:11:52 anti-immigration policy, tariffs,
    0:11:55 and then massive deficit or a fiscal plan
    0:11:59 that probably indicates an explosion or deficits,
    0:12:01 this all adds up to inflation.
    0:12:03 I would predict it’s actually gonna get worse.
    0:12:04 What are your thoughts?
    0:12:07 – Certainly gonna get worse the way we’re headed so far.
    0:12:10 I mean, you mentioned the shelter costs.
    0:12:15 It’s up 4.5% or 4.4% year over year.
    0:12:17 The housing accounts for nearly a third
    0:12:20 of the overall CPI rise.
    0:12:23 And we keep on seeing this with every single inflation print.
    0:12:25 It’s like it’s very high.
    0:12:26 What was the problem?
    0:12:27 It was housing.
    0:12:32 The way we’re headed in terms of immigration and tariffs,
    0:12:34 this is all only gonna get worse.
    0:12:35 I think the question is,
    0:12:40 can Trump sort of vaccinate himself
    0:12:43 from being associated from this whole inflation thing?
    0:12:47 Because Biden, we know, I mean, after COVID,
    0:12:49 you had all these supply chain issues around the world
    0:12:51 which sent prices skyrocketing,
    0:12:54 not just in America, but everywhere in the world.
    0:12:56 Every single government was dealing with inflation.
    0:13:00 Biden did a terrible job of making clear
    0:13:02 to the American people that actually,
    0:13:04 it doesn’t really have anything to do with him
    0:13:05 or his policies.
    0:13:07 This was a global problem.
    0:13:10 But it’s very hard to convince the American public of that
    0:13:13 when you go to the gas station and prices are up 10%.
    0:13:16 And the same might be true here with eggs.
    0:13:18 I mean, people could be showing up to the supermarket.
    0:13:21 Eggs are up 53% in the past year.
    0:13:23 And usually when something like that happens,
    0:13:25 the first person you blame is the president.
    0:13:27 Now the question for Trump is,
    0:13:31 is he gonna do a better job of pushing the blame
    0:13:32 somewhere else?
    0:13:34 And I think the answer is probably yes.
    0:13:36 I think he’s gonna be talking a lot about bird flu.
    0:13:41 By the way, he’s blamed this inflation print on Biden already.
    0:13:42 He said, this isn’t my fault.
    0:13:45 And I honestly, I think that’s actually a fair assessment.
    0:13:50 I think inflation is sort of a lagging indicator.
    0:13:52 But if this continues,
    0:13:54 it’s gonna be a big problem for him
    0:13:58 because this was really the big issue
    0:14:01 that was on the ballot in November.
    0:14:02 Speaking of inflation,
    0:14:05 let’s talk about the cost of private schools in America,
    0:14:07 up to $50,000 up 7%.
    0:14:08 I find this so interesting
    0:14:11 because you talk a lot about this issue
    0:14:14 in higher education specifically,
    0:14:17 where you have colleges driving down supply
    0:14:20 with lower and lower admissions rates,
    0:14:22 at the same time, driving up prices.
    0:14:25 And it’s all culminated in what we call
    0:14:28 kind of the Hermesification of higher ed,
    0:14:30 where they’re basically adopting the same
    0:14:34 go-to-market strategy as an Hermes or a Louis Vuitton,
    0:14:37 college degrees are becoming increasingly luxury items.
    0:14:40 Well, now we’re seeing that same dynamic,
    0:14:43 not just at colleges, but in high schools
    0:14:46 and in middle schools and even elementary schools.
    0:14:50 And I just wanna point out this crazy stat that I saw
    0:14:54 in New York, and granted, New York is an exception,
    0:14:55 but in New York,
    0:14:58 the average tuition for a private elementary school,
    0:15:01 so this is grades K through five.
    0:15:03 These kids are like six years old.
    0:15:07 The average tuition is $22,000 per year.
    0:15:10 And then you look across America,
    0:15:15 the fact that it’s now up to 50,000 for private schools
    0:15:17 from elementary to high school.
    0:15:19 For boarding schools, it’s $73,000.
    0:15:23 And meanwhile, the admissions rates continue to go down,
    0:15:26 i.e. there are still incredible amounts of demand.
    0:15:28 People are still down to pay for this,
    0:15:30 but it’s only a very specific cohort in America
    0:15:31 who could actually do that.
    0:15:34 So what does this say about America?
    0:15:37 What does this say about our education system?
    0:15:38 Where is this all headed?
    0:15:42 I left Manhattan because
    0:15:44 when my kids were applying to school,
    0:15:45 I think it was pre-K,
    0:15:49 I think my oldest was four years old or three years old.
    0:15:51 And let me be clear, the story ends well.
    0:15:54 He’s a star now and doing incredibly well,
    0:15:56 but when he was three or four, he was speech delayed.
    0:15:59 And they have something called a play date,
    0:16:00 which is really just an interview
    0:16:02 where they invite a bunch of the kids who are applicants
    0:16:03 to play with each other.
    0:16:08 And then there’s these three young Gestapo,
    0:16:09 Shdazi people in the room,
    0:16:12 pretending to like your kid, taking notes,
    0:16:13 which is really comfortable.
    0:16:16 And they did this game where they go around a circle
    0:16:20 and they hit their hands on the floor and I like Daisy’s,
    0:16:21 my name is Lisa, the next one.
    0:16:26 My name, I like ice cream and my name is Bob.
    0:16:28 And then they get to my son and he hits his hands on the floor
    0:16:31 and he’s like, that’s it, he’s just looking around.
    0:16:32 And I’m like, he’s not getting in.
    0:16:35 And we applied to seven schools
    0:16:37 and they all send out the letters
    0:16:38 on the same day.
    0:16:40 And I was told by a friend of ours
    0:16:42 who was coaching us around this one school we wanna go to,
    0:16:47 make sure you drop off muffins to the admissions director.
    0:16:49 I drop off muffins and I’m like,
    0:16:51 I’m not fucking dropping off muffins.
    0:16:53 That’s where I draw the line at muffins.
    0:16:54 And I was under the illusion,
    0:16:56 oh, I’m a big time professor,
    0:16:58 or a podcaster will get into three or four,
    0:17:00 if not five or six of schools.
    0:17:02 We got into zero of the seven.
    0:17:06 And I was so upset that no one was gonna let me
    0:17:09 pay $58,000 for my kid to play with blocks.
    0:17:12 That I said to my partner, I said,
    0:17:15 I’ve been single and an entrepreneur my whole life,
    0:17:17 or most of my life, I’m used to rejection.
    0:17:20 I am not used to it for my four year old.
    0:17:22 And we left New York.
    0:17:25 The issue with K through 12 is the following.
    0:17:27 I have no problem with tuition going up.
    0:17:29 And my proposal would be the following.
    0:17:31 I would like tuition to go up another $10,000
    0:17:34 in the form of a tax on every kid’s family
    0:17:36 that is in private school,
    0:17:39 such that they can pour more money back into public schools.
    0:17:41 Because here’s the problem.
    0:17:45 I went to a public school and it was in the ’70s in LA,
    0:17:48 and it was the year they started integration or busing.
    0:17:50 And this isn’t a hallmark story.
    0:17:54 Overnight, 40% of our class was black kids
    0:17:58 who were on a bus from Compton for an hour each day.
    0:18:00 And the idea would be to all get along
    0:18:01 and have great empathy for each other.
    0:18:03 And we fucking hated each other.
    0:18:06 And we used to have black-against-white softball games
    0:18:07 and the faculty allowed it.
    0:18:08 That’s the bad news.
    0:18:11 The good news was about the time we got to high school,
    0:18:12 we were getting along.
    0:18:15 And I think, I genuinely believe that over the long term,
    0:18:19 I’ve established a lot more empathy for people not born
    0:18:21 with pale skin and outdoor plumbing
    0:18:23 and got to grow up in Westwood.
    0:18:26 But my two best friends, Adam and David,
    0:18:28 immediately, their parents pulled them out of school
    0:18:31 and sent them to this Tony private school called Winward,
    0:18:35 where they go to Catalina Island and study marine biology.
    0:18:36 And I went home and said to my mom,
    0:18:37 I need to go to private school.
    0:18:40 And she said, I had one of those, what I call talks,
    0:18:42 where she sat me down and said, we’re different.
    0:18:44 What we need to do in private schools,
    0:18:46 quite frankly, is tax the shit out of them
    0:18:49 and reinvest in public schools.
    0:18:52 So the fact that private schools are going up in costs,
    0:18:53 that doesn’t bother me at all.
    0:18:56 I would like to see them go up more in costs
    0:18:59 in the form of taxation and then reinvested in public schools
    0:19:02 ’cause the key signal or the key metric of success
    0:19:05 of K through 12 schools isn’t even resources,
    0:19:07 it’s parental involvement.
    0:19:11 And dual parent households typically have one or two parents
    0:19:14 who can spend more time being involved in the school.
    0:19:17 But when you pull out all of those wealthy parents,
    0:19:21 all of those typically dual income dual parent households,
    0:19:24 the amount of parental involvement in that school declines
    0:19:27 and the quality of the education spirals down.
    0:19:29 – Yeah, exactly.
    0:19:32 Let’s talk about this new initiative from the EU,
    0:19:34 Invest AI.
    0:19:36 This is sort of their version of Stargate.
    0:19:39 This is a 200 billion euro,
    0:19:42 which is roughly around $200 billion at this point,
    0:19:45 to invest in AI across Europe.
    0:19:48 This seems like a pretty good idea, I would say.
    0:19:50 I mean, I feel like Europe and the EU generally
    0:19:54 gets shitposted for not being ahead of the curve on tech
    0:19:57 or AI and just some pretty staggering numbers here
    0:19:59 to reference.
    0:20:04 The US raised $209 billion in VC funding last year,
    0:20:06 Europe raised only $62 billion.
    0:20:11 So the America’s share of global venture capital is 57%.
    0:20:14 This is last year, Europe’s was only 16%.
    0:20:17 If you look at AI VC funding specifically,
    0:20:22 US makes up 74% of funding, Europe makes up 9%.
    0:20:26 So Europe is way, way behind the puck
    0:20:29 when it comes to AI and generally speaking,
    0:20:31 technological progress.
    0:20:33 So now it looks like they’re trying to rectify that
    0:20:35 with this AI initiative.
    0:20:38 Do you have any reactions to what the EU is doing?
    0:20:39 – A lot of it comes down to this.
    0:20:41 The number you skipped over that me have pulled together
    0:20:44 for us was that AI specific VC funding,
    0:20:47 you got it in percentages was 97 billion in the United States.
    0:20:48 It was 9 billion in Europe.
    0:20:50 And keep in mind, the US and Europe actually
    0:20:53 have some similar size economies.
    0:20:55 It really all comes down to a risk complexion.
    0:20:57 And the way I summarize it when I’m speaking
    0:21:02 to a European audience is that you’re the ones that stayed.
    0:21:04 And that is think about who went to America,
    0:21:06 they were risk takers.
    0:21:08 And that DNA just carries through.
    0:21:11 – You think that’s why Americans are more risk aggressive?
    0:21:12 It’s genetic?
    0:21:13 – Oh my God, are you kidding?
    0:21:16 Look at what is the most innovative part of America?
    0:21:17 – California?
    0:21:19 – Yeah, and who went to California?
    0:21:22 The people with a nice cozy life on the East Coast?
    0:21:23 Who went to the West Coast?
    0:21:25 – I’m with you, I’m with you, I don’t want to hear more.
    0:21:28 – When you talk about success, this is true in life.
    0:21:34 If you want to score above your weight class professionally
    0:21:36 and romantically, it’s a function
    0:21:37 of how much risk you’re willing to take.
    0:21:38 – I agree with that.
    0:21:40 I’m just surprised that you’re making the genetic argument.
    0:21:42 I’m down to hear it out.
    0:21:44 It’s the first time I’ve heard this from you.
    0:21:49 That Americans are genetically predisposed to taking risks.
    0:21:51 And perhaps that is the explanation
    0:21:53 behind their false wealth.
    0:21:57 My parents came to the U.S. on a steamship
    0:22:01 with like three or $400, that was enormous risk.
    0:22:04 And also that’s why immigrants are so incredibly powerful.
    0:22:06 They not only work harder, they’re like,
    0:22:09 I just fucking crawled under a fence and avoided dogs
    0:22:14 and left my family and left my sick mother to come here.
    0:22:20 That risk-taking DNA is everywhere in our gene pool.
    0:22:22 And it’s not, it’s not in Europe.
    0:22:23 So the fact they’re doing this.
    0:22:26 – Yeah, culturally, I think Europe feels
    0:22:29 and has felt for generations that they have more to lose.
    0:22:31 They’ve basically just rested on their laurels.
    0:22:33 And it’s interesting to see that this is happening
    0:22:35 only after America did it.
    0:22:38 It’s also happening only after China came out
    0:22:39 with deep seek.
    0:22:42 The fact that, I think everyone is surprised to see,
    0:22:44 oh, wow, Europe is committing to AI,
    0:22:46 but they’re only down to do it once America did it.
    0:22:48 And then once China basically showed them,
    0:22:51 you guys are behind the curve.
    0:22:55 So, they’re taking the risk, but after everyone else did.
    0:22:56 – Well, Europe has to do something
    0:22:59 because Europe, if you look at the rise of China,
    0:23:01 it actually, so China has grown its economy
    0:23:04 much faster than the global economy.
    0:23:07 And it has the second most billionaires behind the U.S.
    0:23:09 And it hasn’t come at the cost of the U.S. though.
    0:23:11 The U.S. has maintained its share of GDP,
    0:23:13 its share of billionaires, its share of growth.
    0:23:15 It’s come at the cost of Europe.
    0:23:17 And so Europe needs to take a page
    0:23:21 out of that hard-working playbook of China
    0:23:24 and that risk-taking playbook of the United States.
    0:23:26 And without government subsidies
    0:23:27 and encouraged people to take these risks,
    0:23:29 it’s just not gonna happen.
    0:23:30 – We’ll be right back after the break
    0:23:32 with a look at Reddit.
    0:23:33 And if you’re enjoying the show so far,
    0:23:35 be sure to give Proffview Markets a follow
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    0:27:08 (upbeat music)
    0:27:15 We’re back with ProfG Markets.
    0:27:16 Reddit reported fourth-quarter earnings
    0:27:19 that largely beat analyst expectations
    0:27:22 with sales up 71% from a year earlier.
    0:27:24 It also posted its second quarterly profit
    0:27:25 since going public.
    0:27:29 However, the stock dropped more than 13%
    0:27:32 after user growth missed expectations.
    0:27:33 CEO Steve Huffman explained
    0:27:35 that a change in Google search algorithm
    0:27:38 led to, quote, volatility in user growth,
    0:27:42 but assured investors that traffic has since recovered.
    0:27:47 Scott, you are a pretty significant Reddit shareholder.
    0:27:50 What are your initial reactions here?
    0:27:51 – Look, I’m just pissed off.
    0:27:52 Now, after this drawdown today,
    0:27:56 I’m only up 500%, not 600, so…
    0:27:58 – Is that true? Is that the number?
    0:28:01 – Well, it priced at $35.
    0:28:02 – Let’s find out the number.
    0:28:05 – It priced at $35, it’s at 200.
    0:28:08 So what is that, up about 450%?
    0:28:09 – Yeah, okay.
    0:28:11 – And that’s in seven months?
    0:28:12 – Yeah.
    0:28:16 – Look, this was a fucking layup.
    0:28:20 This was, if you believe we’re in an attention economy
    0:28:24 and you can transition or arbitrage
    0:28:27 or turn, convert attention into dollars,
    0:28:30 this company still has a long way to go.
    0:28:34 And that is, I mean, it was up 71% year on year.
    0:28:36 Average revenue was up 28%,
    0:28:38 net income quadrupled to 71 million.
    0:28:40 I think that a lot of people just said,
    0:28:42 okay, with this kind of valuation,
    0:28:44 maybe it’s gotten out over its skis,
    0:28:45 but I think it’s already recovered
    0:28:47 some of those losses today.
    0:28:48 It’s an asset-like company,
    0:28:52 it’s got sort of meta-like margins of 93%.
    0:28:54 Meta’s gross margins were 82%,
    0:28:56 ’cause they keep making these ridiculous
    0:28:59 capex investments and things like headsets.
    0:29:01 Get this, because of Alphabet’s big investments
    0:29:06 in cloud and AI, their gross margins are 58%.
    0:29:09 Apple’s was 47%, which makes sense,
    0:29:11 ’cause they’re on hardware,
    0:29:14 but gross margins at the fourth or fifth
    0:29:17 most traffic side in the world are 93%.
    0:29:21 So I would argue, and see above, shareholder,
    0:29:26 I mean, it’s still, I don’t wanna say it looks cheap.
    0:29:27 It’s hard to think of something
    0:29:29 up four and a half-folder looks cheap,
    0:29:31 but its worth is between 50 and 60.
    0:29:36 It’s 1/50th the value of sites above and behind it.
    0:29:37 So now the problem is,
    0:29:39 it hasn’t been able to monetize as well,
    0:29:43 but with year-on-year revenue increases of 70 plus percent,
    0:29:47 it appears that it’s doing pretty well.
    0:29:51 The problem is, unless its monetization comes up,
    0:29:55 its average revenue per user was $4.20,
    0:29:57 but meta is about three and a half times higher.
    0:30:00 So on a book level, it looks expensive.
    0:30:01 Their key is very straightforward.
    0:30:04 They got the traffic, that’s usually the hard part.
    0:30:05 They have to show their ability
    0:30:08 to continue to increase our poo,
    0:30:12 but the takeaway also going second order of fact,
    0:30:17 we’ve said that as it relates to podcasting,
    0:30:20 that there’s going to be this incredible dynamism
    0:30:22 in the podcasting space over the next 12 months,
    0:30:24 where you’re gonna see at the top 100 podcasts,
    0:30:25 you’re gonna see 50 new ones,
    0:30:27 and you’re gonna see 50 dropout,
    0:30:29 and the arbiter of that churn is gonna be YouTube,
    0:30:32 which is now the largest distribution platform
    0:30:33 for podcasts.
    0:30:35 People spending more time listening to podcasts on YouTube
    0:30:37 than on Apple or Spotify.
    0:30:41 I think in 2026, the arbiter of podcasts
    0:30:44 and the biggest growing distribution mechanism of podcasts
    0:30:45 is gonna be Reddit.
    0:30:48 I think Reddit is so perfect for podcasting.
    0:30:52 Think about the discussions, the threads, and the audience.
    0:30:54 I think if you could figure out a way to distribute
    0:30:58 clips, full podcasts, live podcasts,
    0:31:00 it to me, it’s just out of central casting
    0:31:04 to become the Spotify or the YouTube of podcasting.
    0:31:05 – That’s very interesting.
    0:31:07 I didn’t expect you to say that.
    0:31:11 I mean, you mentioned the valuation there,
    0:31:12 that perhaps it’s undervalued.
    0:31:13 I’m with you.
    0:31:16 I think this is still undervalued.
    0:31:20 And I think dropping 13% after that quarter,
    0:31:21 I don’t think was warranted.
    0:31:24 The thing that Wall Street was upset about clearly
    0:31:26 was the user number.
    0:31:31 So users grew 39% to 101.7 million.
    0:31:34 Investors were expecting 103 million.
    0:31:37 And I think what really freaked them out
    0:31:40 was what Reddit said about this change
    0:31:41 in the Google search algorithm.
    0:31:44 So you might remember last year,
    0:31:47 Reddit got this big boost because Google changed
    0:31:49 how it ranks search results.
    0:31:51 It was called the hidden gems update.
    0:31:55 And the new Google algorithm basically prioritized
    0:31:57 what they called authentic content.
    0:32:00 So that is content that is user generated
    0:32:01 that you find on forums,
    0:32:05 that you find on chat rooms, i.e Reddit.
    0:32:08 So this was a great thing for Reddit last year.
    0:32:10 Now, according to the CEO,
    0:32:13 this quarter or this last quarter,
    0:32:15 Google changed the algorithm again.
    0:32:17 And we don’t really know why or what exactly changed,
    0:32:20 but that was why you saw this quote volatility
    0:32:21 in the user growth.
    0:32:24 And I think that’s what upset Wall Street here,
    0:32:27 this idea that Reddit is too reliant on Google.
    0:32:30 They’re not growing organically on their own.
    0:32:33 And so when Google changes their algorithm,
    0:32:35 suddenly that causes a problem for their growth.
    0:32:37 I think that’s a fair criticism.
    0:32:40 I think the bigger criticism of Reddit though,
    0:32:42 and this is a bull case,
    0:32:46 is they just punch below their weight on everything.
    0:32:48 Ninth most visited website in the world
    0:32:51 is higher than Netflix, it’s higher than Amazon.
    0:32:54 You’ve got 100 million daily active users.
    0:32:57 So these people are using it every single day.
    0:32:58 They don’t release the monthly active users,
    0:33:02 but it’s estimated to be around a billion,
    0:33:05 a billion people using this once a month, at least.
    0:33:09 And yet the company is worth only $35 billion.
    0:33:13 It’s less than a tenth of the value of Netflix.
    0:33:16 And so we’re talking about this as a team,
    0:33:20 and Mia did this really interesting analysis.
    0:33:22 So we were discussing like the cultural significance
    0:33:27 of Reddit, the idea, how important is Reddit to society?
    0:33:31 And we landed on this term, mind share.
    0:33:33 And we wanted to figure out a way
    0:33:35 to kind of quantify that for Reddit.
    0:33:38 Is there a way to come up with a score
    0:33:40 for the amount of mind share that Reddit has
    0:33:43 in people’s minds and their conversations
    0:33:44 in society at large?
    0:33:47 So Mia did this analysis.
    0:33:49 She looked at website visits.
    0:33:53 She looked at mentions on TV, Wikipedia page views,
    0:33:58 job search volume, how many analysts track the stock,
    0:34:00 et cetera, et cetera, all these different metrics
    0:34:02 to kind of get a gauge for this mind share.
    0:34:04 And then she came out with a weighted average
    0:34:06 and we called it the mind share score.
    0:34:10 And what she found is that Reddit’s mind share rating
    0:34:12 is only four times lower than Google’s.
    0:34:14 But if you look at the market cap,
    0:34:16 it’s more than 60 times lower.
    0:34:18 So in other words, if you were to look at Reddit
    0:34:20 as a multiple of mind share, and let’s be clear,
    0:34:22 this is very non-gap.
    0:34:25 We came up with these metrics on our own.
    0:34:26 But if you looked at it as a multiple of mind share,
    0:34:29 Reddit is severely undervalued.
    0:34:31 And so this begs the question,
    0:34:34 like what does Reddit need to start doing
    0:34:36 to start punching above its weight?
    0:34:39 Or at least to live up to the expectations
    0:34:43 that come with the fact that you are a top 10 website
    0:34:45 in the world that everyone knows who you are.
    0:34:48 Everyone who uses the internet is using Reddit
    0:34:50 in some sense, we use it all the time.
    0:34:54 And we have our Reddit page, which I love
    0:34:56 and we love engaging on that.
    0:35:00 But the company is still very small relative to its peers.
    0:35:01 So what do you think it would take?
    0:35:03 I guess you mentioned the podcast there,
    0:35:05 but what else do you think it would take
    0:35:06 for Reddit to start punching
    0:35:09 at least in line with or above its weight?
    0:35:14 – My father peaked at the age of about 48 or 49 professionally.
    0:35:19 And then he was the national sales manager for OM Scots,
    0:35:20 a fertilizer company,
    0:35:23 which I realized was a kind of a weak flex.
    0:35:27 But he used to roam around to like the equivalent of Lowe’s
    0:35:31 and Home Depot’s and Sears and become buddies
    0:35:34 with the person in charge of lawn care,
    0:35:36 the lawn care outdoor department there.
    0:35:38 And my dad is super fucking charming.
    0:35:42 I mean, ridiculously charming.
    0:35:45 And then sell them basically bags of shit.
    0:35:53 Anyways, but that was when he peaked and then he went on
    0:35:56 and then he’d started a string of four or five divorces
    0:36:00 and then left me, hold me, hold me.
    0:36:01 Anyways, he used to say to me,
    0:36:04 he had all these like tests to decide
    0:36:06 if I’d be a good salesperson or not.
    0:36:09 And I remember we used to sell subscriptions and whatever
    0:36:12 and sorry to test if you would be a good sales person.
    0:36:14 – Yeah, he thought sales is everything.
    0:36:17 And he used to sign me up for stuff,
    0:36:21 like selling magazine subscriptions.
    0:36:23 And he used to give me a thing and he’d say,
    0:36:27 this is your wrap and he’d practice with me at the door
    0:36:30 and he’d send me out on a Saturday.
    0:36:32 And then basically like mothers used to say
    0:36:34 the Roman warriors come home with your shield or on it.
    0:36:36 And he’s like, how many subscriptions
    0:36:37 do you think you’re gonna get?
    0:36:38 He’d give me a quota.
    0:36:40 – I’m like eight fucking years old.
    0:36:41 – I kind of love this.
    0:36:42 – I was eight.
    0:36:43 – I’m sure it was traumatizing.
    0:36:44 I was eight. – I was eight.
    0:36:47 – And I’d roam around the shores community
    0:36:49 in Laguna Niguel and I’d knock on doors
    0:36:50 and I’d say, hi, I’m Skye Callaway.
    0:36:52 I met whatever it was, Emily to,
    0:36:53 and we’re doing a magazine drive
    0:36:55 to try and raise money for our school.
    0:36:57 I live down the road.
    0:36:59 And he’d say, throwing your interest.
    0:37:00 And I’m like, I liked the big wheel
    0:37:02 and I like I dream a genie.
    0:37:06 And he’d be like, no, don’t say I dream a genie.
    0:37:07 And I’m like, he’d say something else.
    0:37:10 I’m like, Brady Bunch is like, better, more wholesome.
    0:37:12 And I’d roam around the neighborhood.
    0:37:14 – This explains so much.
    0:37:16 – I’d roam around the neighborhood
    0:37:17 and I’m not exaggerating it.
    0:37:21 I sold more subscriptions to Life and Readers Digest
    0:37:24 and any nine-year-old in Emily to elementary school history.
    0:37:28 And he used to have all these tests for me
    0:37:31 around whether I’d be a good sales person or not.
    0:37:32 Who am I kidding?
    0:37:35 Salesman, they didn’t have any women back there, so.
    0:37:37 And one of his tests that I remember
    0:37:39 is he used to, or this adage he used to have is that
    0:37:42 a salesman, a shoe salesman goes to Africa.
    0:37:45 Two salesmen go to Africa.
    0:37:46 And one comes back and says,
    0:37:48 yeah, it’s never gonna work here.
    0:37:50 Nobody wears any shoes.
    0:37:51 And then the second comes back and goes,
    0:37:53 oh my God, this is amazing.
    0:37:54 Nobody has any shoes.
    0:37:57 And it reminds me a bit of what you’re saying
    0:38:02 because the fact that their valuation in an art pool
    0:38:05 are so low relative to the space they command,
    0:38:08 that’s this is amazing, no one has any shoes.
    0:38:10 And that is you kind of answer your own question.
    0:38:12 There’s a lot of upside here.
    0:38:16 And if they keep growing revenues 73% a year,
    0:38:18 they’re gonna catch up pretty quick.
    0:38:21 If there is this much room to run as you say,
    0:38:23 and which by the way, I agree with,
    0:38:25 I think there’s huge opportunity.
    0:38:29 Shouldn’t they be burning money?
    0:38:31 I mean, this is the other thing that stood out to me
    0:38:34 is that they are now profitable.
    0:38:37 They were profitable the quarter before this
    0:38:39 and then they were profitable last quarter.
    0:38:43 And it feels like they’ve now tatted themselves
    0:38:45 to earning a profit.
    0:38:47 But I feel like what we’re describing
    0:38:52 is a nascent company that should arguably be losing money
    0:38:54 trying to invest in growth,
    0:38:56 trying to get more users,
    0:38:57 trying to acquire customers,
    0:39:00 trying to figure out a monetization strategy.
    0:39:05 But instead, they’re churning out $71 million in net income
    0:39:09 out of $35 billion market cap.
    0:39:12 And I look at that and I see bigger things for this company.
    0:39:15 Couldn’t they think bigger and just lose money
    0:39:17 at least for a couple more years
    0:39:19 until they really get some traction?
    0:39:20 – I think you’re right.
    0:39:25 My advice to Steven Huffman would be an is growth.
    0:39:28 At this point, just growth.
    0:39:29 And the problem is when you go profitable,
    0:39:34 it’s hard to go back because everyone will say,
    0:39:37 Reddit slips back into losing money.
    0:39:40 And for them, it’s all about,
    0:39:41 at this point, it’s all about growth
    0:39:43 and closing that delta you’re talking about
    0:39:48 where market cap and revenue is equivalent to attention.
    0:39:51 I would have found ways to spend that money,
    0:39:54 more partnerships, more salespeople,
    0:39:57 more content, more original content.
    0:39:59 That’s eventually where they will go.
    0:40:03 This is, I mean, when you think about it,
    0:40:05 Reddit was probably would have been
    0:40:08 one of the better acquisitions before they’d gone public
    0:40:10 for any one of a number of companies, right?
    0:40:14 But they, I agree with you, I wouldn’t have gone,
    0:40:17 I would have spent more aggressively to get growth
    0:40:20 from 72% to 80 or 90% or extend it longer.
    0:40:23 – I don’t think shareholders want dividends at this point.
    0:40:27 I think they wanna see 100% user growth.
    0:40:27 – Yeah, they want growth.
    0:40:29 – And whatever, if you’re losing money.
    0:40:30 – Yeah, I think that’s right.
    0:40:31 – We’ll be right back.
    0:40:34 And by the way, we’ll be taping this podcast live
    0:40:37 at South by Southwest on March 10th.
    0:40:42 Head to voxmedia.com/sxsw to learn how to join us.
    0:40:44 Hope to see you there.
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    0:41:32 It looks like a regular chicken sandwich,
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    0:41:43 I participate in McDonald’s in Canada.
    0:41:44 – We’re taking Vox Media podcast on the road
    0:41:46 and heading back to Austin
    0:41:49 for the South by Southwest Festival, March 8th to the 10th.
    0:41:51 What a thrill.
    0:41:53 We’ll be doing special live episodes
    0:41:54 and pitch shows, including Pivot.
    0:41:57 That’s right, that dog’s going to the great state of Texas.
    0:41:59 Where should we begin?
    0:42:02 With Esther Perrell, a touch more with Sue Bird
    0:42:04 and Megan Rapinoe, not just football
    0:42:08 with Cam Hayward and more, presented by Smartsheet.
    0:42:11 The Vox Media podcast stage at South by Southwest
    0:42:14 is open to all South by Southwest badge holders.
    0:42:16 We hope to see you at the Austin Convention Center soon.
    0:42:21 Visit voxmedia.com/sxsw to learn more.
    0:42:25 And that’s voxmedia.com/sxsw.
    0:42:36 – We’re back with Prof. G Markets.
    0:42:38 Netflix is exploring the possibility
    0:42:41 of expanding into video podcasts.
    0:42:42 The streaming giant has reportedly reached out
    0:42:44 to high-profile podcasters,
    0:42:47 including Alex Cooper of Call Her Daddy,
    0:42:49 to create talk-based video shows.
    0:42:51 Though Cooper is currently under a three-year deal
    0:42:54 with SiriusXM, while still in the early stages,
    0:42:57 Netflix is reportedly considering two strategies,
    0:43:00 securing exclusive content from top podcasters,
    0:43:04 or providing access to existing shows without ads.
    0:43:08 Scott, let’s get your take on this potential move.
    0:43:09 But I think the real question is,
    0:43:10 I mean, I’m just reading out this headline,
    0:43:13 reportedly reached out to high-profile podcasters.
    0:43:15 Have you gotten a phone call?
    0:43:18 – So Amy Atkins was this woman in high school.
    0:43:21 I had this enormous crush on.
    0:43:22 I just want to point out,
    0:43:25 I love that the answer, which I expect to be no,
    0:43:26 it must be delivered as a parable.
    0:43:32 – I was so in love with Amy Atkins,
    0:43:35 and she kind of pretended to like me and da-da-da.
    0:43:37 And then she shows up one day and says,
    0:43:40 oh, this is my boyfriend, Sean.
    0:43:43 And I’m like, oh, and I wanted to strangle him.
    0:43:47 And I’m like, wait, you got a boyfriend and it’s not me.
    0:43:50 And anyways, I’m not exaggerating.
    0:43:53 I sent an email to Ted Zarandos last night.
    0:43:56 And I’m like, fucking Alex Cooper?
    0:43:59 Alex Cooper?
    0:44:00 – What did you say?
    0:44:03 What exactly did you say?
    0:44:06 – I don’t know Ted well, but I know him.
    0:44:10 And by the way, he’s like an incredibly decent,
    0:44:12 nice, thoughtful man.
    0:44:15 And obviously built this amazing company.
    0:44:18 But I got to be honest, I felt a little like,
    0:44:19 who’s this guy, Sean?
    0:44:24 I find out in Business Insider, you’re interested in podcast.
    0:44:25 I got nothing.
    0:44:26 He didn’t call me.
    0:44:28 He didn’t call me for advice.
    0:44:30 He didn’t send me a message saying,
    0:44:32 oh, you and Ed and Kara’s name came up,
    0:44:34 but we decided that we don’t want to be in news
    0:44:36 or you dropped too many F-bombs on CNN.
    0:44:41 Nothing, just news that he’s dating Alex Cooper.
    0:44:46 So no, we did not hear from Netflix.
    0:44:49 And I read about it and it just kind of,
    0:44:52 so back to the actual story here,
    0:44:54 it makes all the sense in the world.
    0:44:56 And people are constantly saying,
    0:44:57 okay, will Netflix go into sports?
    0:44:59 No, well, they didn’t know they go to sports.
    0:45:03 Will Netflix go into, you know, live?
    0:45:04 Will they go into gaming?
    0:45:06 They’re going into,
    0:45:09 if there’s a tension there and a chance to get subscriptions
    0:45:10 and differentiate their offering,
    0:45:12 you should assume they’re gonna go there.
    0:45:14 And it makes all the sense in the world
    0:45:17 because the primary arbiter of the next evolution
    0:45:21 of the fastest growing out supported medium podcast is video.
    0:45:23 And the guy who’s about to displace
    0:45:24 or one of our predictions
    0:45:26 is the guy who’s gonna displace Joe Rogan
    0:45:27 as the biggest podcaster in the world,
    0:45:29 is this guy, Steven Bartlett,
    0:45:34 because he got very serious about video production quality,
    0:45:39 optimizing Mr. Beasting, his thumbnails, different titles.
    0:45:42 He called me, I was on with Constantine,
    0:45:44 I forget his name, the thoughtful conservative kid.
    0:45:45 Constantine Kissen.
    0:45:47 And then this third guy, whose name I forgot,
    0:45:48 he was also very thoughtful.
    0:45:51 They, Steven Bartlett brought us on
    0:45:53 to talk about the state of the world.
    0:45:54 And I was supposed to represent America.
    0:45:56 And every comment was that douchebag prof
    0:45:58 does not represent America.
    0:46:02 Anyways, he called me or no, he didn’t call me.
    0:46:05 He texted me, he left me a voice memo the next day
    0:46:07 and said, this is gonna be,
    0:46:09 this will do four million views.
    0:46:10 This is amazing, congratulations.
    0:46:12 And I immediately went to YouTube
    0:46:15 and it was like 63,000, I’m like, it’s at 63,000.
    0:46:17 He’s like, oh no, our algorithms have already figured out
    0:46:19 it’s gonna be around four million.
    0:46:22 That’s how sophisticated he is around video,
    0:46:26 is that within a half an hour of putting it on YouTube,
    0:46:28 he knows how big the video is gonna be.
    0:46:30 And they do all these A/B testing.
    0:46:34 And what he does on his pod is he will go to New York
    0:46:37 for a month, go to LA for a month, and he does,
    0:46:39 he demands in-person interviews.
    0:46:42 The thing I did with Constantine was the first time
    0:46:44 they had ever done a podcast remotely.
    0:46:47 He demands, again, for video production quality.
    0:46:50 While everyone is trying to get rid of the studio,
    0:46:51 he’s going the other way.
    0:46:53 And Rich Roll does the same thing.
    0:46:55 Rich Roll forces you to go out to Agura Hills,
    0:46:56 which is not fun.
    0:46:57 – Shout out Rich, love Rich.
    0:46:58 – Oh, he’s fantastic.
    0:47:00 He’s the kind of guy you want as a big brother.
    0:47:02 He’s so thoughtful and soulful and handsome.
    0:47:05 And you’re like, I’m coming back as Rich Roll.
    0:47:07 But he makes you go out to Agura Hills
    0:47:09 and he has all these, like Steven Barlett,
    0:47:10 he has all these cameramen
    0:47:12 and he must have spent a ton of money early on,
    0:47:16 gave up all his profits, imported into video.
    0:47:17 That is the new arbiter.
    0:47:20 And when you think about the premiere video platform,
    0:47:22 YouTube, number two is Netflix.
    0:47:24 And I imagine Netflix will go high-end
    0:47:27 and they’ll say to someone like fucking Caller Daddy
    0:47:28 or some other bullshit.
    0:47:32 He’ll say, we’ll make this really cool and interesting.
    0:47:35 And by the way, if you’re looking to be
    0:47:36 the number one podcast in the world,
    0:47:39 we can do that with a simple tweak of the algorithm.
    0:47:43 And in 36 hours, by putting you on the homepage of Netflix
    0:47:47 for 36 hours, it’s one of those things I wish I thought of.
    0:47:49 And that is Netflix will overnight
    0:47:51 be able to take, they’ll own a bunch of podcasts.
    0:47:54 They might start early by just being a distribution platform,
    0:47:57 learning about it, making some ad revenue.
    0:47:58 And then they will go vertical
    0:48:00 and either launch their own or buy some.
    0:48:05 And they will make, I would bet within 24 to 36 months,
    0:48:07 three of the 10-pigas podcasts in the world
    0:48:12 are owned by Netflix because they have the platform,
    0:48:13 they can put it everywhere
    0:48:16 and then they can maybe distribute it to YouTube,
    0:48:18 put it on Apple and Spotify a week later,
    0:48:21 members get it a week early, whatever it might be.
    0:48:23 But this just makes, this is right as rain.
    0:48:25 – Yeah, I think it’s right as rain.
    0:48:28 I don’t think it’s gonna play out the way you’ve described.
    0:48:30 I mean, I think the question is like,
    0:48:32 what is this going to actually look like?
    0:48:34 And I think the scenario you’re describing
    0:48:38 is Netflix takes kind of the Spotify strategy
    0:48:39 where you reach out to these podcasters
    0:48:41 and you offer them these exclusive deals
    0:48:44 to be the exclusive platform for that podcast.
    0:48:48 I’d call that like the Spotify Joe Rogan strategy.
    0:48:51 I personally don’t think it’s gonna look like that.
    0:48:53 I think it’s gonna look a little bit more
    0:48:57 like the MrBeast Amazon deal
    0:49:01 where Amazon paid MrBeast $100 million
    0:49:04 to create just one TV series with MrBeast,
    0:49:07 which is now out and you can watch it right now.
    0:49:09 Meanwhile, MrBeast is free
    0:49:11 to keep posting his videos on YouTube.
    0:49:14 So in other words, I think Netflix
    0:49:18 isn’t necessarily going off to podcasting the medium.
    0:49:21 I think they’re going off to podcasters the talent.
    0:49:25 And that’s gonna be an incredible thing
    0:49:28 for people like Alex Cooper and for Joe Rogan
    0:49:30 and Theo Vaughn and all these people.
    0:49:32 All of these people who’ve kind of become
    0:49:35 like the new Hollywood superstars.
    0:49:36 I mean, you think about how it’s changed.
    0:49:39 These people are the Jennifer Aniston’s
    0:49:41 and the Ben Stiller’s of our time.
    0:49:44 And I think that’s what Netflix is really excited about
    0:49:45 and they wanna capitalize on that.
    0:49:49 Not necessarily to be the new podcast platform,
    0:49:51 but certainly to be the platform that owns
    0:49:54 or at least has some level of relationship
    0:49:56 with the biggest stars in the world.
    0:49:59 And it just so happens, the biggest stars in the world today,
    0:50:00 they’re making podcasts.
    0:50:02 That’s kind of what they do now.
    0:50:04 – Yeah, the name, I love your take.
    0:50:06 And the name that just jumps out,
    0:50:07 it makes all kinds of sense is Theo Vaughn
    0:50:09 ’cause he’s also a comedian.
    0:50:11 I mean, they could say to Theo,
    0:50:15 we’ll double or triple the size of your podcast audience.
    0:50:16 And by the way, we’re gonna sign you up
    0:50:20 for a four one hour comedy special on Netflix.
    0:50:23 And we’re gonna pay you a crazy amount of money.
    0:50:26 And basically, if you want access to Theo Vaughn,
    0:50:27 which tens of millions of people do,
    0:50:31 he’s got such a nice authentic vibe about him.
    0:50:34 Where can you find Theo Vaughn on Netflix?
    0:50:37 I think you wrote about this in a No Mercino Malice post.
    0:50:39 We’ve got a little too much attention for my liking.
    0:50:44 But you talked about, it’s no longer about brands,
    0:50:45 it’s about people.
    0:50:46 – People of the new brands.
    0:50:48 – You know, people of the new brands.
    0:50:49 I mean, I just think about the potential
    0:50:50 of my mind spinning.
    0:50:52 The guy’s from Smarlis.
    0:50:53 By the way, I was on their podcast,
    0:50:54 but I haven’t put it out yet.
    0:50:56 I don’t know, I recorded like three weeks ago.
    0:50:59 But anyways, those guys are just so good on TV
    0:51:00 and they’re so funny.
    0:51:01 – They’re interesting because they already
    0:51:02 were Hollywood stars.
    0:51:03 – That’s right.
    0:51:04 – Then they switched.
    0:51:05 They could come back again.
    0:51:05 – That’s right.
    0:51:08 But they’re all really appealing on camera.
    0:51:09 – And let’s be clear.
    0:51:11 I think you would be amazing too.
    0:51:13 – I’m sorry, when did you say it?
    0:51:14 – I’m sorry.
    0:51:15 – Go ahead.
    0:51:15 – I’m not gonna repeat it.
    0:51:17 I said it once.
    0:51:18 I think that would be an incredible idea.
    0:51:21 I don’t think that it should be CNN Plus.
    0:51:22 I don’t think it should be,
    0:51:24 I mean, maybe let’s take this opportunity
    0:51:25 to think about it.
    0:51:26 I mean, if–
    0:51:27 – You’re talking your own book here
    0:51:29 ’cause when we go out, people come up to you.
    0:51:30 They’re like, oh, hi, Scott.
    0:51:32 And they literally run over me to,
    0:51:34 and I have my, I’d like, are you taken?
    0:51:37 I have a daughter at SMU.
    0:51:38 – It’s always, I have a daughter.
    0:51:42 – Well, yeah, is there anything wrong with that?
    0:51:45 But they want to, yeah, yeah, you’re,
    0:51:47 I’m like, we’re that movie, The Substance,
    0:51:49 and I’m definitely Demi Moore.
    0:51:51 And you’re like the hot young chick
    0:51:53 I did emerge from my body.
    0:51:56 – Anyways, have you seen The Substance?
    0:51:58 – I haven’t seen it, but that makes sense.
    0:52:01 But let’s just think about it for a second.
    0:52:04 Like, what do you think a Scott Galloway Netflix show
    0:52:06 should look like?
    0:52:08 And I think that this is an opportunity to think,
    0:52:12 like, imagine we are a Netflix producer.
    0:52:14 Like, what kind of content do you think
    0:52:16 people are looking from podcasters?
    0:52:19 Because I will say, I don’t think it’s just a video podcast.
    0:52:21 They can already get that on YouTube.
    0:52:22 They can already get that on Spotify.
    0:52:26 I also don’t think it’s whatever the fuck CNN+ was.
    0:52:28 Something about that didn’t work.
    0:52:29 It was maybe-
    0:52:30 – Jake Tapper’s book club?
    0:52:31 – Exactly.
    0:52:32 – That wasn’t riveting content?
    0:52:33 – It’s too, it’s too produced.
    0:52:35 You lose all of the authentic feel
    0:52:37 that you get with the podcast
    0:52:39 and with that relationship with podcasters.
    0:52:42 Like, what do you think a good Netflix show
    0:52:45 for a podcaster would look like?
    0:52:46 – Well, it’d be Scott and Ed.
    0:52:51 So I think, I think eventually Netflix goes into news
    0:52:52 and they do a loop where they,
    0:52:55 so a daily business update
    0:52:57 where it’s more highly produced,
    0:52:59 more graphics, more visuals.
    0:53:02 And also, if you were gonna do a regular podcast
    0:53:03 every week, what I think you’d wanna do,
    0:53:07 if you’re talking about your guests as Richard Reeves,
    0:53:08 you take 15 or 20 minutes
    0:53:10 and you go talk to parents and young men.
    0:53:12 You just, quite frankly, you take podcasting
    0:53:15 and you just massively increase the production value.
    0:53:17 ‘Cause right now the means of production are,
    0:53:19 and this is the thing I love about podcasting
    0:53:23 and the thing that scares me about this
    0:53:24 is the means of production
    0:53:27 are basically what looks like a toiletry kit for me.
    0:53:31 And that is Drew, who’s our tech wizard,
    0:53:33 puts together this little Dopp kit for me
    0:53:36 and it’s the size, it’s smaller than a lunch pail
    0:53:38 or like literally like a toiletry kit.
    0:53:41 And I can take it anywhere and pull out my mic,
    0:53:44 probably get into my laptop and boom, I’m podcasting.
    0:53:46 The game is gonna be upped
    0:53:47 and you’re gonna see podcasts
    0:53:49 where it’s an hour-long podcast,
    0:53:50 but they’ll do breakouts.
    0:53:52 And when we’re talking about Reddit,
    0:53:54 it breaks to like a three-minute thing
    0:53:56 where they’re interviewing the CEO
    0:53:58 or they use amazing visuals to go online
    0:54:01 and talk about Reddit and what’s interesting about it.
    0:54:03 But the game, the bar is gonna be raised
    0:54:07 and they have such incredible depth of talent
    0:54:10 that they’ll be able to say, okay, Scott and Ed,
    0:54:12 if you wanna do a daily market show,
    0:54:15 we have an unbelievable production team
    0:54:17 in not only in New Jersey, but in Madrid.
    0:54:20 And when you’re done recording at 7 p.m.,
    0:54:22 we have our folks in LA take it over,
    0:54:24 then they throw it over the wall to the folks in Madrid
    0:54:25 at three in the morning,
    0:54:27 where it’s eight in the morning, their time,
    0:54:32 and they produce just this really impressive podcast
    0:54:34 meets Hollywood, if you will.
    0:54:38 Let me what is it, the days of me just tapping in
    0:54:41 from the Dolphin Hotel and Walt Disney World
    0:54:44 and getting a quarter of a million people to listen that day
    0:54:46 with the bad curtains in the background.
    0:54:49 I’m not sure that shit’s gonna survive.
    0:54:50 – Well, that is the big question.
    0:54:51 Can you do that?
    0:54:54 Can you invest that much, bring in that many people
    0:54:56 and maintain the level of authenticity
    0:54:58 that you get on podcasts?
    0:55:00 I would argue, I don’t think-
    0:55:01 – That’s a great point.
    0:55:02 – It’s possible to do that.
    0:55:04 I think the more highly produced you get,
    0:55:07 the less real things start to feel.
    0:55:08 And there’s something-
    0:55:08 – It’s interesting.
    0:55:12 – There’s something nice about you being in a hotel
    0:55:13 and there’s a curtain behind you
    0:55:16 and we can actually see what is happening in your life
    0:55:19 because as I’ve said, I think the thing that people crave
    0:55:21 most is connection with people.
    0:55:22 This is what I wrote about in that blog post,
    0:55:24 “People of the New Brands”.
    0:55:27 They crave connection with real people
    0:55:28 because of this issue with loneliness
    0:55:30 that we keep on seeing.
    0:55:34 And I don’t think that a highly produced Netflix series
    0:55:37 is going to be the kind of thing that addresses
    0:55:40 that level of connectivity and authenticity
    0:55:42 that you get with podcasts.
    0:55:44 – We should tease, we’re thinking,
    0:55:46 oh, I’m not thinking, we’ve decided Propg Markets,
    0:55:51 which is the fastest growing part of our podcast empire.
    0:55:53 We’re going to go to daily.
    0:55:55 And one of the things we’re talking about is,
    0:55:57 all right, Scott’s traveling all the time.
    0:55:59 Scott doesn’t want to work that hard.
    0:56:02 And how do we incorporate Scott into a daily show?
    0:56:04 And you guys came up with this notion of,
    0:56:06 and it’s being doing authenticity,
    0:56:08 that it’s like, where in the world is Scott?
    0:56:11 And I would literally tap in on my phone wherever I am
    0:56:13 and just provide a viewpoint in your view and Claire’s view.
    0:56:15 And I thought it was really insightful,
    0:56:19 was rather than trying to mimic 80% of the production value
    0:56:21 when I’m in studio, just put it on your phone.
    0:56:24 And it’s just wherever you are at that moment,
    0:56:27 and Ed is asking questions or you’re giving your view,
    0:56:31 but go the other way and make it very raw.
    0:56:34 Like live from the bar at Maison Estelle
    0:56:36 or wherever I’m getting drunk.
    0:56:38 Scott, go into a bathroom stall
    0:56:40 and tell us what you think about the Reddit earnings.
    0:56:43 But I thought that was really interesting,
    0:56:45 but whatever Netflix does,
    0:56:47 everything is sort of colliding back
    0:56:49 to where what’s old is new again, right?
    0:56:51 We’re kind of reassembling the cable bundle.
    0:56:54 It’s advertising, but it’s also subscription.
    0:56:58 But I think that podcasts are gonna become more like TV
    0:57:01 than TV is gonna become like podcasts.
    0:57:02 Anyways, I think it’s gonna be fascinating to see,
    0:57:06 but it’s just, you hear this and you just know
    0:57:09 in 24 months, there’s a non-zero probability
    0:57:14 that what everyone’s talking about YouTube and podcasts,
    0:57:16 people are gonna start talking about Netflix and podcasts.
    0:57:18 I also think Reddit, it’s about who controls,
    0:57:20 who has custody of the consumer,
    0:57:22 who has the trust and the direct vertical interface
    0:57:23 with the consumer.
    0:57:26 – Okay, let’s take a look at the week out.
    0:57:29 We’ll see earnings from Walmart and Alibaba.
    0:57:33 We’ll also see consumer sentiment data for February.
    0:57:34 Do you have any predictions for us, Scott?
    0:57:35 – I can’t help it.
    0:57:37 I’m a broken clock here.
    0:57:39 Tesla is imploding.
    0:57:40 It’s absolutely imploding.
    0:57:44 It’s sales are off between 10 and 60%
    0:57:46 across European nations.
    0:57:50 It was off, I believe they’re off 11% in China.
    0:57:54 In a growing market, BYD is producing as good a car
    0:57:56 for 40% of the price.
    0:57:58 They haven’t had a new vehicle,
    0:58:02 a new kind of mass vehicle introduction in over six years.
    0:58:05 When I’m getting into Tesla’s and I’m biased,
    0:58:08 but I think they just feel stale.
    0:58:09 I think the competition has caught up
    0:58:11 and even surpassed them.
    0:58:14 And then I think about what he’s done with the brand,
    0:58:16 just trashing it with Nazi salutes,
    0:58:21 like the model Tesla SS and changing his pronouns
    0:58:23 to he and Himmler.
    0:58:25 I just think this is gonna catch up.
    0:58:29 It already is and you’re seeing sales imploding.
    0:58:32 Meanwhile, it has this just ridiculous fucking multiple.
    0:58:35 And I’ve always said this, that stock prices
    0:58:39 are like Michael Jordan jumping from the free throw line.
    0:58:42 It feels like he’s never gonna come down and he always does.
    0:58:44 And fundamentals, I don’t care if you’re game stop,
    0:58:46 I don’t care if you’re too social.
    0:58:50 At some point, Michael Jordan hits the hardwood again.
    0:58:53 I think the stock is below 200 in the next six months.
    0:58:55 – Good luck, we’ve said this before.
    0:58:58 They always find a way to justify it.
    0:59:01 I mean, I agree with everything you said
    0:59:02 and yet I don’t think it’ll happen
    0:59:05 because the market always somehow, this company,
    0:59:09 they just love this company, they always figure out a way
    0:59:11 to say, no, no, there’s still more room to run.
    0:59:12 But we’ll see.
    0:59:14 – Yeah, I’m sticking to my guns here.
    0:59:16 It is time, it is time.
    0:59:20 – This episode was produced by Claire Miller
    0:59:21 and engineered by Benjamin Spencer,
    0:59:23 our associate producer is Alison Weiss.
    0:59:25 Mia Silverio is our research lead.
    0:59:27 Isabella Kinsel is our research associate.
    0:59:29 Drew Bars is our technical director.
    0:59:32 And Catherine Dillon is our executive producer.
    0:59:33 Thank you for listening to “ProfG Markets”
    0:59:36 from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
    0:59:38 Join us on Thursday for our conversation
    0:59:41 with Kyla Scanlon, only on “ProfG Markets.”
    0:59:47 ♪ Lifetimes ♪
    0:59:55 ♪ You help me ♪
    1:00:00 ♪ In kind reunion ♪
    1:00:05 ♪ As the world turns ♪
    1:00:12 ♪ And the ground flies ♪
    1:00:14 ♪ And loves ♪
    1:00:22 – Do you wanna hear my other movie impression?
    1:00:23 – Yes, please.
    1:00:25 – And I’ll ask you to guess who it is.
    1:00:25 – Okay.
    1:00:27 – Okay, ready?
    1:00:28 – How about no?
    1:00:29 (laughing)
    1:00:30 – Who is that?
    1:00:32 – Who is that?
    1:00:33 – Mike Myers, what’s the guy’s name?
    1:00:35 – That’s right, that’s right.
    1:00:36 – What is that movie?
    1:00:37 – “The Spy I Love Me.”
    1:00:40 You’re getting warmer, you’re getting warmer.
    1:00:41 Mike Meyer.
    1:00:43 – “Austin Powers.”
    1:00:44 – There you go, very good.
    1:00:46 Anyways, inflation.
    1:00:48 – Yeah, speaking of inflation,
    1:00:51 let’s talk about the cost of private schools in America.

    Did you know we have a separate Markets feed? Follow Prof G Markets for additional episodes:

    Scott and Ed open the show by discussing the latest inflation report, the rise of tuition at private schools and the EU’s investment in AI. Then they break down Reddit’s earnings, explaining why the company has significant room for growth. Scott and Ed also discuss Netflix’s potential move into podcasting, examining why high-quality video is the new key to success in the medium. They also debate what a hit Netflix show for a podcaster could look like.

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