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0:01:56 I’m Scott Galloway, and this is No Mercy, No Malice.
0:02:04 Young men should vote for Kamala Harris, The Last Swing Voters, as read by George Hahn.
0:02:15 The catastrophizing from both sides regarding the end of America if she or he wins is obnoxious
0:02:19 and recognizes neither history nor the resilience of the U.S.
0:02:23 We’ve survived much worse than her or him.
0:02:29 However, it’s clear that, as in any election, some groups will fare better or worse with their
0:02:35 guy or gal in the White House, and if you disagree with me, we’ll both be fine.
0:02:42 The group whose well-being, or lack thereof, I am increasingly focused on is young men.
0:02:49 I believe Kamala Harris and Tim Walls offer the best way forward for young men in the U.S.,
0:02:53 who’ve been left behind in a time of unprecedented prosperity.
0:02:59 This election is, or should be, a referendum on two related things,
0:03:04 women’s bodily autonomy, and the future of men in the U.S.
0:03:09 With the race likely to be decided not by a handful of battleground states,
0:03:15 but by a few battleground counties, the votes of young men could be decisive.
0:03:18 No group has fallen further behind faster.
0:03:24 Young men are more persuadable than older voters, who are more partisan.
0:03:30 According to data for progress, swing voters are more common among young people.
0:03:36 Close to half, 43 percent, of swing voters are under 45.
0:03:43 According to Circle at Tufts University, young male voters are motivated to a large degree by
0:03:49 economic issues such as inflation and job stability, issues that candidates tend to
0:03:51 shift positions on during the campaign.
0:03:58 The GOP has proven smarter and more aggressive than the Democrats in reaching out to men,
0:04:05 especially online. In recent years, young men have been trending more conservative and apathetic,
0:04:08 while young women have become more progressive and engaged.
0:04:12 The gender gap has become a gender gulf.
0:04:17 Women make up a little over half of the electorate,
0:04:21 but they turn out in larger numbers to vote than men.
0:04:28 This year, the overthrow of Roe v. Wade and numerous state ballot questions about abortion
0:04:31 are likely to bring record numbers of young women to the polls.
0:04:37 Young men, most of whom support the right to choose and gender equality,
0:04:41 are not as strongly motivated to vote on those issues.
0:04:47 Part of the problem, I believe, is that the Democratic Party has abandoned young men and
0:04:53 failed to show them what the loss of Roe means for them, their opportunities, and their choices.
0:04:58 The DNC website has a page titled “Who We Serve.”
0:05:06 Listed are 16 constituencies, including African Americans, the LGBTQ community,
0:05:14 women, veterans, and 12 other demographic groups that comprise approximately 76% of the population.
0:05:20 When you explicitly advocate for 76% of the population,
0:05:26 you’re not advocating for 76%, but discriminating against the 24%.
0:05:29 In this case, young men.
0:05:36 This visibly absent group comes into sharp relief when you extract an obvious truth
0:05:43 from the data. No group has fallen faster or further in the U.S. over the past two decades
0:05:51 than young men. That neglect shows up in polls. As the New York Times recently reported about
0:05:58 Democrats faring poorly with all men, “It increasingly seems possible that most or perhaps
0:06:05 all of that weakness is concentrated among young men. Surprisingly, Ms. Harris is faring no better
0:06:12 than Mr. Biden did among young men in the Times’ Sienna data, even as she’s made significant gains
0:06:19 among young women.” I receive a lot of emails from worried parents,
0:06:25 particularly mothers, along these lines. “I have a daughter who lives in Chicago
0:06:30 and works in PR and another daughter who’s at Penn. My son lives in our basement,
0:06:35 vapes, and plays video games.” Young American men are in a crisis of
0:06:44 under-employment and under-socialization, which is bad for all of us. Even as the costs of college
0:06:50 have soared beyond reach of many families, many of the manufacturing jobs that didn’t require a
0:06:57 college degree and were a ticket to the middle class have been off-shored. Housing is increasingly
0:07:05 unaffordable. Nearly 60% of men between the ages of 18 and 24 live with their parents and one in
0:07:14 five still live with their parents at age 30. Since 2004, deaths of despair among young men
0:07:25 have taken 400,000 lives. Think about this. More young men in America have died deaths of despair
0:07:33 in the last 20 years than were killed in World War II. Meanwhile, the whole subject of what it means
0:07:39 to be a man has become radioactive, infected by a dialogue that feels more like disdain,
0:07:45 like toxic masculinity, than a conversation meant to address the issue. Young men don’t know who
0:07:52 they’re supposed to be and lack the resources to go out into the world and find out. Many are stuck,
0:07:59 isolated, despairing, and unproductive, prone to obesity, drug addiction, and suicide,
0:08:06 susceptible to misogyny, conspiracy theories, and radicalization. They make lousy potential mates,
0:08:14 employees, and citizens. While young women have made great strides in education and earning power,
0:08:20 which is great and we should do nothing to stop that, young men seem stuck in reverse.
0:08:27 I have spent a decent amount of time reviewing the different economic policies and positions of
0:08:33 both campaigns and feel Harris’s policies would provide young men with increased opportunities
0:08:41 to realize their masculinity, specifically to provide, to protect, and to procreate.
0:08:49 These are prosperous times. America doesn’t need to be made great again,
0:08:54 as Yale management professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld recently highlighted in Time,
0:09:01 the U.S. economy under Biden-Harris is, by a number of objective measures, doing well.
0:09:11 The unemployment rate is currently about 4.1%, the lowest since 1968. Inflation is low at 2.2%.
0:09:18 GDP growth is the best in the world. The financial markets are soaring, hitting 71
0:09:24 record highs this year, and Biden has cut the deficit by one-third.
0:09:34 Writing about technology, William Gibson famously said, quote, “The future is already here.
0:09:41 It’s just not evenly distributed,” unquote. The same is true of prosperity,
0:09:48 and the algorithms that increasingly run our lives want to convince us that everything is awful.
0:09:53 In real life, the Biden administration has an economic record to be proud of,
0:10:00 and Harris should embrace and extend it. She is campaigning on expanding housing construction,
0:10:06 reducing student debt, increasing child tax credits, bringing back manufacturing jobs,
0:10:10 and helping the sandwich generation care for their aging parents.
0:10:17 The other side’s policies are inflationary, raising tariffs and cutting immigration,
0:10:26 the GOP’s other standby, tax cuts, adds to the deficit, and that debt is an enormous long-term
0:10:34 tax, particularly on young people. And that debt is an enormous long-term tax, particularly on
0:10:41 young people. Older people, like me, aren’t going to be around to pay off the deficit. Young people are.
0:10:48 Historically, being a provider was a man’s job. Though we now live in a world where physical
0:10:54 strength doesn’t carry as much weight economically, meaning women can bring home just as much bacon as
0:11:00 men. But women becoming breadwinners doesn’t mean the role is any less important for men.
0:11:08 A guy with a decent job and a strong economy is creating wealth, paying taxes, and earning social
0:11:14 capital, not to mention his own self-respect. He’s a more attractive potential husband and father.
0:11:23 As Richard Reeves says, he adds surplus value. The number one condition for the development of
0:11:32 male providers, a strong and expanding economy, is far more likely under Harris. There is near
0:11:38 universal agreement on this among economists, Nobel laureates, and investment banks that have
0:11:48 bothered to do the math. This election is about policies, but it is also about values. If you’re
0:11:55 looking for a good shorthand term for healthy masculinity circa 2024, you could do a lot worse
0:12:01 than the word “mench,” which in German simply means “human.” And in Yiddish describes, quote,
0:12:08 “a person of integrity or rectitude, a just, honest, or honorable person,” unquote.
0:12:16 The first instinct of a mensch is to protect, to sacrifice for something bigger than oneself,
0:12:23 not to pick on the vulnerable. Real men don’t start barfights, they break up barfights.
0:12:29 They don’t shitpost their country, they defend it. Harris’ running mate, Tim Walls,
0:12:33 demonstrated that instinct during his long service in the National Guard,
0:12:40 as did J.D. Vance by enlisting in the Marines. Walls also exhibited the impulse to protect
0:12:46 as a high school teacher and football coach in Moncato, Minnesota, where he was an advisor to
0:13:13 LGBTQ kids starting a gay straight alliance. The Democrats have done poorly reaching out to young
0:13:21 men. Picking an America’s dad type guy for VP, somebody with gray hair who can talk to both
0:13:28 football players and queer kids, was an important move in bridging the gap and a statement of principle.
0:13:35 A man’s default setting should be to move to protect in any situation.
0:13:42 The third foundational element of masculinity, the third leg of the stool, if you will,
0:13:51 is ensuring the species endures, which starts with sex. When I was a kid, my mom was worried
0:13:57 I’d get into too much trouble. I believe today’s parents are concerned our kids won’t find enough.
0:14:05 Peter Attia and Andrew Huberman have declared war on alcohol, where they see ill health and
0:14:11 drunkenness, where young people in drinking are concerned I see togetherness, but that’s another
0:14:19 post. My generation never gave up on sex. However, lately, under employment and screenbound young
0:14:25 men who feel rejected in an increasingly winner-take-all online dating market have thrown in the towel.
0:14:34 About 63% of young men are single and a lot of them aren’t even trying to date. Meanwhile,
0:14:40 young women find themselves in an intensifying competition for a shrinking pool of what they
0:14:48 view as acceptable mates. The viral hit was “I’m looking for a man in finance,” not “I’m looking
0:15:02 for a high school dropout who lives with his parents.” Young men need guardrails, and there are
0:15:08 few stronger than the prospect of maintaining a romantic relationship. A decent summary of the
0:15:13 key moments between me and several of my post-college girlfriends went something like this.
0:15:18 “Get your shit together or I’m going to stop having sex with you,” i.e. break up.
0:15:26 This was motivating and needed. Young men today have fewer venues where they can meet potential
0:15:33 romantic partners. With fewer of them going to college or church and more of them working remotely,
0:15:39 men have less social interaction and no ability to build social capital.
0:15:46 Less sex ultimately means less intimacy, less marriage, and fewer kids.
0:15:53 Straight young men are interested in straight young women because they want to have sex.
0:16:01 We tend to act as if there’s something wrong with that. There isn’t. Sex and the pursuit
0:16:07 of it leads to romance and intimacy and lights a fire under young men to better themselves,
0:16:15 to be more attractive to potential mates. This intimacy often involves sacrifice,
0:16:20 the forsaking all other stuff that comes when a pair of young people decide, “I choose you.”
0:16:27 This often leads to children. The most wonderful things in life, in my experience,
0:16:35 lack rationality and structure. My grandmother, regarding finding a mate, used to say, “You have
0:16:44 your list and then you fall in love and you tear up your list.” The person you fall for
0:16:49 and how it happens will likely make less sense than almost any other important thing in your life.
0:16:55 And that’s one of the reasons it’s wonderful. It speaks to you on a different level,
0:17:02 not what society or your parents want, but what you desire. And eventually the answer
0:17:06 to the most important question of your life, “Who do you want to have a family with?”
0:17:15 According to Gallup, though, only about 21% of Americans under 30 have kids.
0:17:23 In 1980, the figure was about 38%. In 1950, it was about 50%.
0:17:31 There are a lot of reasons for that, but the war on bodily autonomy is a contributing factor.
0:17:39 The state laws, restricting or banning abortion that sprang up in the wake of Rose Demise,
0:17:46 are designed to limit the sexual freedom of young women and men and undermine their ability to
0:17:53 get into the game and create families. The people most vulnerable in a post-abortion America
0:18:00 are poor women. Affluent women will be able to get hold of myth of pristone or to travel
0:18:07 for a safe legal abortion. A pregnant 17-year-old black single mother in Alabama, however,
0:18:15 is at ground zero for an emerging gender apartheid. She’s likely already poor and forced to carry
0:18:20 an unwanted pregnancy to term, she and the father, if he’s even in the picture,
0:18:27 become less likely to escape poverty. While Democrats have pushed hard to get
0:18:33 young women to turn out and vote, the Harris campaign hasn’t been making the case to young men
0:18:40 that the fight for bodily autonomy involves them too. That needs to change. Harris in the White
0:18:47 House offers a chance to begin to reclaim the Supreme Court for the majority in this country
0:18:53 who support bodily autonomy and a national effort to roll back state restrictions on it.
0:19:01 I don’t think electing Harrison Walls is going to magically bring young men out of the crisis
0:19:09 they are in. I do think, however, that it’s an important step. A vote for Harrison Walls is a
0:19:16 vote for the future, a vote to continue to improve economic policies that have served America well,
0:19:23 that can give young men a place in it. It is also a vote for a shift in the way we think
0:19:30 about masculinity in this country. This is the most anxious generation in U.S. history.
0:19:37 Action absorbs anxiety, and I hope young men will exercise their agency
0:19:43 and support candidates who enable them to be providers, protectors, and procreators.
0:19:48 I believe a Harris Walls administration will serve young men well.
0:19:53 If you disagree, again, we’ll both be fine.
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0:01:47 Episode 322, Route 322, is a US-high-wage version of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey in 1922.
0:01:50 The first 3D movie was screened.
0:01:56 I do an imitation of a 3D printer, and then my son tells me to close the bathroom when I’m taking a dump.
0:01:59 Go! Go! Go!
0:02:11 Welcome to the 322nd episode of The Prop G-Pod.
0:02:16 In today’s episode, we speak with Angela Duckworth, a psychologist, co-founder of the Character Lab,
0:02:20 and a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania.
0:02:25 She is also the author of the number one New York Times bestseller, GRIT, The Power of Passion and Perseverance.
0:02:28 We discussed with Angela great in perseverance.
0:02:29 That makes sense.
0:02:34 How to create environments for success and advice for raising resilient kids.
0:02:35 Okay, what’s happening?
0:02:38 Daddy went to the WNBA finals.
0:02:38 That’s right.
0:02:39 I get floor seats.
0:02:40 That’s what happens when you know.
0:02:43 Kara Swisher, the first WNBA game I go to.
0:02:45 Talk about a privileged lifestyle.
0:02:51 As I go to the last game of the finals at home for the New York Liberty, it goes into overtime and they win.
0:02:55 And by the way, these women are an absolute inspiration.
0:03:01 Anyways, in New York, headed doing my son’s or one of my son’s college tours,
0:03:05 which is both inspiring and exceptionally anxious.
0:03:07 My son is in New York.
0:03:08 Does he see me?
0:03:09 No.
0:03:14 My two sons are less impressed with me than anyone I know.
0:03:15 Anyone I know.
0:03:18 And that’s like a fairly high bar to be not impressed by me.
0:03:20 There are a lot of people who are exceptionally unimpressed.
0:03:23 Anyways, ask your parents.
0:03:24 You’ll figure it out when you’re a parent.
0:03:25 What’s happening?
0:03:27 We have exciting news to share.
0:03:28 Oh my God.
0:03:29 This is exciting.
0:03:34 The Raging Moderates podcast now has its own feed.
0:03:37 Whoa, alert the media.
0:03:41 This is, oh my goodness, all this excitement.
0:03:46 In case you missed it, Raging Moderates is a Prodigy podcast co-hosted with our favorite
0:03:48 political gangster, Jessica Tarlaw.
0:03:52 For those of you who don’t know Jessica, she’s a rising star or maybe she’s risen.
0:03:58 She’s on the most popular cable news network show, The Five, Fox’s weeknight news program
0:04:01 and plays a key role in special coverage for the network.
0:04:04 Every Tuesday on Raging Moderates, Jess and I will have an in-depth conversation on the
0:04:07 likes of political news through a centrist lens.
0:04:11 So with that, we hope you enjoy Raging Moderates, a weekly podcast from the Prodigy
0:04:12 universe.
0:04:16 Episodes will be on the new feed every Tuesday and we’ll link the new feed in the description
0:04:19 of this episode to Resist This Feudal.
0:04:21 I’m AOL in the ’90s.
0:04:22 I’m fucking everywhere.
0:04:23 Just give up.
0:04:24 Surrender to the dog.
0:04:27 Surrender to the dog.
0:04:29 Okay, moving on.
0:04:33 Disney announced it will name Bob Iger’s successor in early 2026.
0:04:34 So this is sort of the long goodbye.
0:04:36 I think it was a mistake for Bob to come back.
0:04:37 I do think it’s good that we have churn.
0:04:42 I think there are too many old white guys in media who don’t understand the new technologies
0:04:45 and just basically understand how to pay themselves a shit ton of money while destroying
0:04:48 shareholder value.
0:04:52 So essentially this kind of succession strategy is an elegant way to say it’s time for you
0:04:53 to leave.
0:04:54 He probably wants out.
0:04:59 I don’t know what the situation is, but they’ve identified people from four different areas
0:05:00 as their likely successor.
0:05:02 So now it’s the Hunger Games.
0:05:07 And most likely the person who gets selected has had more time in the boardroom and for
0:05:10 whatever reason has a good impression or the board has a good impression of him or her.
0:05:12 It’s very random who you choose as CEO.
0:05:13 Is that true?
0:05:14 Is it random?
0:05:15 A little bit.
0:05:19 Disney has put former Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman in charge of its succession committee
0:05:23 and he’s set to take over as board chairman on January 2nd, 2025.
0:05:27 My guess is it’ll probably be the person whoever’s sitting on the business that is the least
0:05:30 bad in the Disney portfolio right now.
0:05:32 Gorman is a very impressive guy.
0:05:36 He’s successfully navigated Morgan Stanley’s CEO transition and he’s replacing former
0:05:40 Nike CEO Mark Parker from the Disney board who has been in the world for just two years.
0:05:42 I think this is good corporate governance.
0:05:43 I’m happy for it.
0:05:48 It seems like Disney to me is a well-run board, if you will, who’s going to be a successor
0:05:51 back the guy who oversees the theme parks and the video games.
0:05:52 That would be my bet.
0:05:53 Not because I don’t know.
0:05:54 Josh Damaro.
0:05:55 That’s a cool name.
0:05:56 Josh Damaro.
0:05:57 Hi, I’m Josh Damaro.
0:05:58 That sounds just like a…
0:06:01 Doesn’t that sound like a guy you could, I don’t know, have a beer with?
0:06:04 Dana Walden who co-leads Disney’s entertainment unit.
0:06:05 I’m entirely sure what that means.
0:06:06 Isn’t it all entertainment?
0:06:11 ESPN, Jimmy Petaro, Alan Bergman who also co-chairs Disney Entertainment.
0:06:13 I imagine there’s also opportunity for an outside person.
0:06:14 We’ll see.
0:06:15 Be fun to bet on who it is.
0:06:18 The big picture with Disney shares trading under $100 most of the year and the company
0:06:21 facing challenges in both streaming and its theme park business.
0:06:26 Can the new CEO, whoever it may be, steer the company in the right direction?
0:06:31 I just think this company, this was one of my stock picks for 2024.
0:06:35 This company has such incredible assets.
0:06:41 We do this brand identity audit in brand strategy, and one of the things we talk about is leveraging
0:06:44 your brand as symbols, which are assets.
0:06:53 Brand as symbol here, what, Mickey, the Matterhorn, the Castle, Walt Disney himself, Goofy, Star
0:06:56 Wars characters which they now own, Luke Skywalker, Darth Vader.
0:07:03 They just have so many assets, and I do think that Disney Plus is a survivor in what has
0:07:04 become the Hunger Games of business.
0:07:09 The streaming networks because its positioning is so clean and clear around family.
0:07:14 If you have kids, you have to have Disney Plus and you have to go to Disneyland.
0:07:18 I always thought the opportunity for them was a membership offering where for $50 a month
0:07:22 you get Disney Plus and you get access to the parks on specific days where it’s not
0:07:25 a fucking shit show and you don’t have to wait three hours to go on the avatar ride.
0:07:28 That literally rattled the shit out of me.
0:07:33 We’re seeing all these families who had clearly saved all year, paying $3,000 to stay in a
0:07:38 shitty hotel with shitty food and then wait three hours in a line as their six-year-old
0:07:40 falls asleep in their arms.
0:07:42 At some point, that becomes abuse.
0:07:45 I literally think that’s abusive.
0:07:49 Your kids are addicted to these programs and then you make them wait three hours at avatar.
0:07:52 Anyway, it’s Disney Plus, $50 a month recurring revenue.
0:07:56 What doesn’t sound like that much, you got Disney and then you get special access to
0:08:00 the park on days where it’s not too crowded, whatever.
0:08:04 Your daughter gets a princess outfit that she can wear to the Disney parks.
0:08:08 I just think they need to do a better job of CRM than saying, “All right, are you a
0:08:09 Disney family?”
0:08:11 Yeah, you’re a family, which means you need to be a Disney family.
0:08:15 We’re going to send you, you get access to Frozen two weeks before anyone else, whatever
0:08:17 they’re on, Frozen 11.
0:08:20 I have absolutely no desire to see Frozen, none.
0:08:21 None whatsoever.
0:08:25 They’re a few things less appealing to me than Frozen.
0:08:32 Is that wrong?
0:08:36 That’s like not liking Taylor Swift, that probably triggers about a billion people.
0:08:42 Anyways, the stock is up 7% year to date, but over the last 10 years, it’s been flat.
0:08:47 When you think about this as the icon, this is what Ford was to Detroit, Disney is to
0:08:48 Los Angeles.
0:08:52 Supposedly production is down 40% in Los Angeles.
0:08:59 I did a call yesterday with a super impressive guy who’s had a storied career in film production,
0:09:00 and he was very honest.
0:09:01 He said, “My career here has kind of hit a wall.
0:09:03 Do you have any thoughts or ideas for me?”
0:09:05 By the way, I typically coach young men.
0:09:10 I find there’s an enormous number of men my age who are trying to figure out their second
0:09:13 act that the ground is shifted underneath them.
0:09:17 They typically don’t have the same level of mental health problems that I perceive among
0:09:22 young kids who have their brains wired during puberty by this fucking dopa bag called their
0:09:26 smartphone and meta.
0:09:32 But I’m really struck at how many men are out there trying to find the next thing if
0:09:33 you will.
0:09:34 I don’t know.
0:09:35 I don’t know what brought that up.
0:09:37 Anyways, let’s talk about something more inspiring.
0:09:38 I know three words.
0:09:39 First word, chick.
0:09:40 Second word, Phil.
0:09:41 Third word, a.
0:09:42 Chick-fil-a.
0:09:43 I love Chick-fil-a.
0:09:47 I don’t know if you know this, but I’ve been on several corporate boards, and the thing
0:09:50 we used to talk about on the board at Panera was how Chick-fil-a had NPS scores that were
0:09:54 like 30% higher than every other industry.
0:09:55 Why is that?
0:09:59 Not because the chicken’s not much better, but because of their compensation schematic
0:10:00 and culture.
0:10:02 That is, every Chick-fil-a has an owner.
0:10:05 They get thousands of applications for someone to be a franchisee.
0:10:08 They loan them the money, and they literally are an owner.
0:10:10 There’s all these studies.
0:10:13 When the owner isn’t there, the amount of time it takes you to get your meal, the level
0:10:18 of shrinkage, which is theft, how clean the bathrooms are, everything goes down when the
0:10:19 owner’s not there.
0:10:22 Basically, Chick-fil-a has figured out a way to have an owner there in every restaurant.
0:10:23 They do an amazing job.
0:10:29 The company plans to launch a new app, Chick-fil-a Play on November 18th, featuring original
0:10:33 content on clinic family friendly shows, podcast games, and even recipes.
0:10:37 I love this company.
0:10:41 They got a bad rap for being too conservative because of their homophobic policies, which
0:10:44 was the old owner or the former owner, whatever, fine.
0:10:45 They deserve shit.
0:10:46 They got it next.
0:10:47 It’s a good company.
0:10:52 Actually, it’s probably more progressive than a lot of firms, and they do an amazing job.
0:10:57 If you do the drive-through, the handhelds, they clearly invest in a lot of innovation.
0:11:01 I think the world of this company, if they were public, which I don’t believe they are,
0:11:02 no, they’re not.
0:11:03 That’s the stock I would own.
0:11:05 Anyways, but they’re basically moving into media.
0:11:06 Why are they moving into media?
0:11:10 According to Dustin Britt, Chick-fil-a’s executive director of Brand Strategy, the company noticed
0:11:15 a link between content consumption and mealtimes, particularly for families with children.
0:11:16 Jesus Christ.
0:11:20 I hadn’t thought about that, but now it makes all the sense in the world.
0:11:22 My kid’s always consuming media.
0:11:25 Even when he’s consuming food, that’s a big point of contention for us.
0:11:26 Phone’s down.
0:11:27 Screen’s off.
0:11:31 We just want to have dinner with you, which is torture for them.
0:11:34 Anyways, that makes a lot of sense.
0:11:41 The idea that they would, in fact, try and convert media consumption or games into mealtime,
0:11:42 it’s kind of interesting.
0:11:44 Do I think it’s going to work?
0:11:45 Probably not.
0:11:46 Do I think they should do it?
0:11:48 Yes, because I think you’d take swings like that and see what happens.
0:11:53 That’s part of innovation, and we’re talking about it, which kind of signals innovation
0:11:57 around their brand, so Chick-fil-a, well done.
0:11:58 Let’s talk about kids.
0:12:02 Children’s engagement with certain types of digital devices varies wildly by age.
0:12:03 Get this.
0:12:07 9 to 11, two-thirds of them are on some sort of gaming device.
0:12:09 Three-quarters of them engage with a desktop or laptop computer.
0:12:11 I’m talking about 9 to 11-year-olds.
0:12:12 Get this.
0:12:16 Almost two-thirds of 5 to 8-year-olds have some sort of gaming device.
0:12:19 This is a shit that’s really scary, is two-thirds of 9 to 11-year-olds have a smartphone.
0:12:20 Jesus.
0:12:21 9 to 11?
0:12:22 Really?
0:12:23 Really?
0:12:27 Percentage of U.S. parents of a child age 11 or younger who say that.
0:12:30 As far as I know, their child ever uses or interacts with it.
0:12:31 Oh my God.
0:12:32 That is just nuts.
0:12:34 You know what else is really big.
0:12:41 Tablets, about four-fifths of kids between the ages of 5 and 11 are on tablets.
0:12:45 I essentially think I used to, I think Tim Cook has just done such a great job managing
0:12:52 his brand and so has Sunder Pichai, but effectively they’re sitting outside at junior high school
0:12:54 selling heroin.
0:12:59 They’re basically training our kids to be total fucking addicts, just as their brain
0:13:00 is being wired.
0:13:02 They’re gonna punch into the ecosystem or into our culture.
0:13:07 A ton of kids that are gonna be massively hungry for dopa and they’re gonna find a lot
0:13:09 of unusual ways to get it.
0:13:12 There’s no reason why anyone should have a smartphone under the age of 16.
0:13:13 Is it entirely their fault?
0:13:19 No, but they’re happy to be there and lie in obfuscate while a feckless, ineffective government
0:13:21 does nothing about it.
0:13:26 Anyways, this is, in my opinion, one of the things, and I’m worried about a lot, but one
0:13:30 of the things I’m really worried about is just as your kid’s brain is coming online,
0:13:34 you’re training it to need constant mini hits of dopa all the time.
0:13:42 We put a casino, an IMAX, an IPIC, an arcade all into their pockets, such that at any moment
0:13:45 in time, they can pull it up if they need a little bit of dopa.
0:13:47 What’s our role as parents?
0:13:52 I think my role as a dad is slopa, I like that, slow dopa, and that is to try and instill
0:13:59 a sense of success over time, practice, working out, strength, slow progress that results
0:14:03 in more enduring and satisfying rewards.
0:14:04 Slow dopa.
0:14:05 That’s me.
0:14:06 Call me dad.
0:14:07 Call me slopa.
0:14:12 We’ll be right back for our conversation with Angela Duckworth.
0:14:14 What software do you use at work?
0:14:19 The answer to that question is probably more complicated than you want it to be.
0:14:24 The average U.S. company deploys more than 100 apps, and ideas about the work we do can
0:14:27 be radically changed by the tools we use to do it.
0:14:29 So what is enterprise software anyway?
0:14:31 What is productivity software?
0:14:33 How will AI affect both?
0:14:37 And how are these tools changing the way we use our computers to make stuff, communicate,
0:14:39 and plan for the future?
0:14:44 In this three-part special series, Decoder is surveying the IT landscape presented by
0:14:50 AWS. Check it out wherever you get your podcasts.
0:14:52 Support for PropT comes from NerdWallet.
0:14:55 If you’re a listener of the show, you know business, and if you’re looking for a resource
0:14:59 to find financial products that can help you make smart financial decisions, turn to the
0:15:02 nerds at NerdWallet.
0:15:06 Not only have they spent thousands of hours researching and reviewing over 1,300 financial
0:15:09 products, but they have the tools you need to make smarter decisions.
0:15:11 Looking for a credit card?
0:15:15 The NerdWallet can go beyond the basic comparisons, filter for the features that matter to you,
0:15:17 and read in-depth reviews.
0:15:19 Ready to choose a high-yield savings account?
0:15:22 Get access to exclusive deals and compare rates, bonuses, and more.
0:15:23 House hunting?
0:15:27 View today’s top mortgage rates for your home sweet home.
0:15:30 Make the nerds your go-to resource for smart financial decisions.
0:15:32 Head to nerdwallet.com/learnmore.
0:15:33 NerdWallet.
0:15:34 Finance.
0:15:35 Smarter.
0:15:45 Incorporated, NMLS 1617539.
0:15:50 About a year ago, two twin brothers in Wisconsin discovered, kind of by accident, that mini-golf
0:15:54 might be the perfect spectator sport for the TikTok era.
0:16:00 Meanwhile, a YouTuber in Brooklyn found himself less interested in tech YouTube and more interested
0:16:02 in making coffee.
0:16:07 This month on The Vergecast, we’re telling stories about these people who tried to find
0:16:11 new ways to make content, new ways to build businesses around that content, and new ways
0:16:14 to make content about those businesses.
0:16:17 Our series is called How to Make It in the Future, and it’s all this month on The Vergecast,
0:16:31 wherever you get podcasts.
0:16:32 Welcome back.
0:16:35 Today, we’re going to talk about how to make it in the future, and how to make it happen.
0:16:40 We’re going to talk about how to make it in the future, and how to make it happen in the
0:16:41 future.
0:16:45 So, we’re going to talk about how to make it happen in the future, and how to make it
0:16:46 happen in the future.
0:16:50 So, we’re going to talk about how to make it happen in the future.
0:16:52 So, we’re going to talk about how to make it happen in the future, and how to make it
0:16:53 happen in the future.
0:16:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:16:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:16:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:16:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:16:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:16:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:46 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:16 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:17 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:18 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:31 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:19:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:16 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:17 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:18 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:19:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:19:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:31 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:20:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:46 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:16 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:21:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:21:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:21:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:22:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:22:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:22:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:22:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:22:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:22:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:23:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:23:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:23:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:16 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:17 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:18 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:31 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:16 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:17 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:18 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:31 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:46 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:17 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:18 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:31 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:16 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:17 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:18 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:46 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:16 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:17 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:18 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:31 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:16 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:17 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:18 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:46 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:46 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:31 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:16 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:17 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:18 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:46 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:37:43 Professor, do you have children?
0:37:47 I have two. They are 23 and 21.
0:37:51 How did this work impact your approach to raising kids?
0:37:57 When I started graduate school, I was pregnant with Lucy and I think I was still nursing Amanda.
0:38:02 So, I was becoming a mom at the same time as I was becoming a psychologist.
0:38:07 And because I really didn’t know anything about psychology, I really was starting from scratch, right?
0:38:13 I wasn’t a psychology major. I majored in neurobiology. I had a master’s in neuroscience, but it was really a very different thing.
0:38:17 So, I was learning about everything, Piaget for the first, I mean everything.
0:38:24 And then I would come home and turn the key and the lock and then I would walk over the threshold and I would be a mom and not a psychology student.
0:38:37 But of course, it was all the same me and so I feel like my study of self-control and of grit and of effort and the foil for those things,
0:38:45 which are whatever it is to be innately talented or naturally intelligent, I mean, it was just all in my head.
0:38:58 And I think how it influenced my parenting and I should say our parenting because my husband Jason and I were, you know, talking every night about like what I was learning as a researcher.
0:39:10 I mean, I did raise them to believe that excellence comes from, you know, pick your favorite quote, but let’s take John Wooden, the UCLA basketball coach, right?
0:39:21 Who said there are eight laws of learning, explanation, demonstration, imitation, how to get the repetition.
0:39:28 Oh, and then the last ones are easy. Repetition, repetition, repetition, repetition, so five of the eight, right, are the same.
0:39:37 So, I did raise them to not think of excellence as a magic trick, you know, they’re 23 and 21, so they’re still sampling.
0:39:42 But I will say, I think they, you know, drank the Kool-Aid, so to speak.
0:39:47 I’ll start with the thesis. I coach a lot of young men.
0:39:56 My general and there is some research here that while physically stronger boys are emotionally and psychologically weaker than girls.
0:40:04 If they’re raised in a single parent household, they’re much less likely their outcomes are worse when they lose a male role model.
0:40:11 Or is when girls are in, go from dual parent to single parent homes, they have similar outcomes. They’re more resilient.
0:40:17 Have you found any research that finds that young women are more resilient or demonstrate more grit than young men?
0:40:27 I had a female neurosurgeon approach, Maine, it’s been a few years, so I can’t remember much about the interaction except for that she had a hypothesis.
0:40:31 She said, you know, there aren’t many of us meaning female neurosurgeons.
0:40:40 In fact, they apparently, if I recall correctly, which I may not because it’s been a few years, like they have a number because there’s so few that like, you know, it’s like a deli.
0:40:44 You know, you get the next number, I don’t know what number she was, 125 or whatever she was.
0:40:53 And she said, I just can’t believe that there’s equal grit among the female and the male neurosurgeons in part just because of selection, right?
0:40:56 It’s like a fine mesh sieve and we’re still here.
0:41:01 So we did do a little study. We, or she, I should say, you know, I just gave her the grit scale.
0:41:08 The grit scale is a 12-item questionnaire and has very obvious items, you know, setbacks don’t discourage me.
0:41:16 I finish whatever I begin. It’s got passion items about having consistency in a goal for very long periods of time.
0:41:25 And when the data came back, I’ll tell you, you know, she did not find a statistically significant gender difference, I think, favoring either side, honestly.
0:41:32 Now, that doesn’t mean there aren’t any. There are lots of, you know, boring aspects of self-report questionnaires that we can talk about.
0:41:40 One of them, though, that’s very relevant to looking at gender differences is something I studied, it’s called reference bias.
0:41:46 So, Scott, if you take a questionnaire and I take a questionnaire and we read the same item, I am a hard worker.
0:41:52 You first conjure up an image of a hard worker and then you measure yourself to that standard.
0:42:03 One of the things that I think may obscure gender differences is that if that person has higher standards, then you have two forces that are working in opposition.
0:42:10 On one hand, they may really be grittier. On the other hand, their higher standard is going to yield a lower score.
0:42:15 And this has absolutely been documented in cross-cultural research.
0:42:23 So, in one study, there are over, I think, 60 countries and it wasn’t a grit scale, but it was a measure of overall conscientiousness, right?
0:42:31 Big five, conscientiousness, you know, being orderly and responsible and I, you know, imagine like, you know, detail-oriented.
0:42:35 But also, by the way, this is the family that includes grit and self-control, so that family.
0:42:44 And they gave it to people in all these different countries and then the very simple question was, like, what are the most conscientious countries in the world?
0:42:54 And when the data came in, it was fairly shocking because whereas the, you know, leaders were not especially clear, but what I remember from the paper was that the losers were.
0:43:02 So, the lowest conscientious countries were, I think, Japan, like South Korea, like maybe China.
0:43:06 I mean, these countries that stereotypically, you’re like, really? Like, really?
0:43:15 And what I believe and I think what the authors of this research report also believe is that what you’re really revealing there are standards, right?
0:43:22 It’s probably that, you know, the same words are on the paper, but they’re essentially answering different questionnaires.
0:43:26 So, on gender, I have not found reliable gender differences in grit.
0:43:28 That’s probably a good thing, yes.
0:43:33 You know, I don’t know whether there really are, but I will say this.
0:43:38 I think I have to be careful because I think I’m actually biased towards women.
0:43:41 So, I’m aware of that.
0:43:46 You know, I will say there is a gender difference that we haven’t talked about that goes against your hypothesis.
0:43:55 And I’ll say these are data that come from, like, giving women tasks like an IQ test and men the same IQ test.
0:43:56 There are differences in confidence.
0:44:00 There are differences in, you know, like, okay, you just took this test.
0:44:01 Scott, what do you think you did?
0:44:04 Like, how do you think, how do you, oh, I think I did great, right?
0:44:08 Women with the same score will be like, oh, you know, terribly, right?
0:44:16 So, I think there are differences in confidence that are not necessarily justified, but also would work against your hypothesis.
0:44:19 So, you have a new book you’ve been writing on the power of the situation.
0:44:22 You say that the entire book can be summarized with this sentence.
0:44:27 Achieving your goals is easier when you make your situation your ally.
0:44:29 That feels very obvious.
0:44:32 Putting yourself in the right room, the right context, the right platform.
0:44:34 Say more about that.
0:44:40 Do some people not recognize the importance of the context or the situation?
0:44:46 I think there are, you know, two reasons why people do not recognize the power of the situation.
0:44:56 One is, you know, Victor Frankel’s, you know, the message that people heard from Man Search for Meaning that some people heard is that, well, unfortunately, you cannot change your circumstances.
0:44:59 But you can change how you respond to them.
0:45:03 You know, I don’t think that’s actually what Victor Frankel meant.
0:45:11 I mean, I don’t think Victor Frankel was like, so what, there are concentration camps and Nazis and, you know, our entire people are being extinguished.
0:45:15 What really matters is our attitude because we have to control the controllables.
0:45:18 So, I think there’s a kind of misunderstanding.
0:45:22 I think many circumstances are given, but not all.
0:45:27 And I think that impediment, that kind of like, oh, you got to control the controllables, meaning yourself.
0:45:33 And, you know, this list of things that you can’t control gets rounded up to be everything, right?
0:45:39 So, I think people do overlook the situation in part because they assume it’s a given.
0:45:46 And the second reason is that even when you can control your, let’s say, gozempic as one very controversial example, right?
0:45:51 I think there are people who would consider taking gozempic for weight loss to be a form of weakness.
0:46:00 You know, sort of, you know, kind of, well, if you were stronger, if you, you know, were just more disciplined, if you, dot, dot, dot.
0:46:03 Well, then you wouldn’t need to rely on this crutch, right?
0:46:06 People think like using chatGBT is cheating, right?
0:46:15 And I know you can actually cheat with chatGBT, but these are just two features of your situation that you could use to your advantage or not use to your advantage.
0:46:22 So, the second reason I think we overlook the power of the situation is that it feels like cheating when the situation is helping us.
0:46:28 And the very cover of grits, which I don’t even know if I have back here, but anyway, on this bookshelf, there might be a copy of grit.
0:46:35 And if I pulled it out, you know, it’s this one big arrow going to the right against these little arrows that go to the left.
0:46:42 And the idea of grit, I think, is about overcoming, you know, overcoming aspects of your situation for sure.
0:46:51 But I think what that leaves out, it’s not that this book is a correction, but I do think it’s a completion of the idea, is that it’s great to have a big arrow pointing to the right.
0:46:52 It’s great to work hard.
0:46:55 It’s great to pick yourself up and be resilient.
0:47:00 But why not do that in a river that’s flowing in your direction?
0:47:16 Last question here. Two or three pieces of advice to parents who recognize the importance of grit and want to do what they can to try and instill a sense of grit, putting their kids in the right context or situation to be successful.
0:47:27 If you tried to distill it down, and every book on parenting I read just kind of says to me, no one has any idea. Every book I read seems to contradict the one before it.
0:47:35 But could you, are there two or three things that you would say are kind of tried and true in terms of helping your kids establish this fantastic competence?
0:47:44 You know, I think every kid benefits from having a kind of surrogate parent at a certain point, often in their teen years, sometimes younger.
0:47:52 And what I mean by that is their track coach, their violin teacher, the AP history teacher who really pushed them.
0:47:57 And why are these surrogate parents so, I don’t know, essential even is one word that comes to mind.
0:47:59 So listen to them.
0:48:03 Well, exactly, because we are rejecting the actual parents that we have.
0:48:06 And I watched it with my own kids.
0:48:12 You’ve got to outsource some of these parents because there’s almost nothing you can do.
0:48:17 One day my daughter comes home from like track practice and she was like, oh, you got to get bed early.
0:48:18 I need to drink water.
0:48:20 Like, you know, I can’t be eating all this crap.
0:48:24 And I was like, like, I’ve been saying all these things, especially on the sleep.
0:48:27 And it’s like, oh, because our track coach told her, right?
0:48:30 So I think one thing is outsourcing some of the modeling.
0:48:35 And I think that does come through extracurricular activities almost always, right?
0:48:41 And I guess the, you know, the second thing is, you know, we talked a little bit about sampling versus specializing.
0:48:46 I remember vividly, I think it was like the headmaster when these elite schools,
0:48:49 it may or may not have been where Bill Gates went to school,
0:48:56 and it may or may not have been the principal or head of the school that he attended while he was attending it.
0:49:03 But I remember what he said, which is that when he looked at the parents of the kids who ended up being very successful,
0:49:09 you know, the parents were watching their kids like hawks for what sparked their kids’ interest.
0:49:13 And I know it sounds like kind of like a, you know, soft or hooky thing,
0:49:17 but like, you know what, if your kid’s not interested in something, they’re not going to be great at it.
0:49:25 And so looking for those, I think looking for flickers of interest is more important than looking at flickers of talent, right?
0:49:31 Not just like what seems to come easily to your kid, but what holds their attention, you know, those are the seeds of passion.
0:49:42 So I lied, one final, final question. What can kill grit? What do you need to avoid? What can get you stuck or reduce the levels of grit?
0:49:48 Well, we talked about the situation. We, you know, don’t have a whole conversation on burnout.
0:49:54 But I do think there’s a nuance here. Like, if you just look at correlations between grit and burnout,
0:49:58 the grittier people are less burned out. That’s honestly not shocking.
0:50:05 But I think really gritty people are in some ways at the highest risk of burnout because slackers don’t get burned out.
0:50:11 And gritty people work so hard and they are so tenacious. So what imperils grit?
0:50:17 I think when you asked about, you know, you know, what are the environments, the crucible, I said, like, I’m listening to your story.
0:50:25 I hear a lot of challenge. I’m guessing that there’s another through line of support somewhere in there or Scott wouldn’t become Scott.
0:50:32 So I think burnout is what happens when you try really, really hard in a very gritty way, probably.
0:50:41 And somehow things are just not working for you. And when that happens, I think looking outside of yourself instead of inside yourself,
0:50:47 looking at what could make it easier to accomplish your goals as opposed to berating yourself for not trying harder.
0:50:49 Honestly, Scott, that’s what I’m trying to do.
0:50:57 Yeah, forgive yourself. Angela Duckworth is a psychologist, the co-founder of Character Lab and a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania.
0:51:04 She’s also the author of the number one New York Times bestseller, Grit, The Power of Passion and Perseverance.
0:51:10 She joined us from her office at the great educational institution, the University of Pennsylvania.
0:51:19 Professor, you own, you literally own a character attribute. That is such good for you. Well done.
0:51:26 Oh, it’s not patented. You know, when the Flyers named their, the Philadelphia Flyers hockey team, when they named their mascot, Gritty,
0:51:30 no royalties were exchanged, nor should they have been.
0:51:39 Yeah, but more importantly, when people say to your kids, who is your mom, my mom was a grit woman, there’s just a lot worse things you could say about people.
0:51:42 Congratulations on your success. Thank you, Scott.
0:51:59 Algebra of happiness. I’ve been thinking a lot about masculinity. I’m writing a book on it and some younger people said masculinity is an outdated word.
0:52:03 So it might be notes on becoming a man and I’m trying to write a book.
0:52:13 It not only talks about I’m not trying to position myself as an expert because I’m not, but talking about where I failed as a man and what I’ve learned and where I’ve done okay.
0:52:25 And I think I’ve been thinking a lot about the election and some of the swing voters still up for grabs are young men and the Democratic Party has done a terrible job of making young men feel seen.
0:52:36 And what does that mean programs acknowledging that young men are struggling, but they are, I believe the election might be won by young men, and that is or loss, if you will, or decided, I should say.
0:52:42 And that is this election was supposed to be seen as a referendum on women’s rights. And I think that’s largely the case.
0:52:49 But I think people who feel strongly about bodily autonomy one way or the other have already decided it’s young men that are up for grabs.
0:52:59 And I’d like to think that everyone should have a code. And I’d like to think that masculinity or an aspirational modern form masculinity could be a great code.
0:53:08 And this is why I am supporting or one of the reasons I am supporting and we always get shit for being political on the show.
0:53:11 I get it. That’s not why you invited me here, but I want to be transparent.
0:53:18 I think the economy is doing really well and or better than most people want to acknowledge it’s not evenly distributed.
0:53:21 But we have the least bad economy in the world right now.
0:53:29 And when I think about your code of being a man or becoming a man, I think of three legs of the stool.
0:53:32 I think provider protector and procreator.
0:53:41 So provider is much easier to be a provider in a strong economy. And this is lowest unemployment rate, high GDP growth, lowest inflation.
0:53:48 I think you’re more likely to be able to be a provider in this economy, protector.
0:53:56 I think men’s first instinct should be to protection. Real men break up fights. They don’t start them. Real men defend their country.
0:54:01 They don’t shit post it. Real men immediately their default setting is protection.
0:54:06 And then this is the one that’s a little harder or a little more controversial, procreator.
0:54:12 The most wonderful thing in my life, hands down, is raising boys with a competent partner.
0:54:19 And how did it start? Sex. I didn’t see my partner at the pool at the Raleigh Hotel and think, “Wow, she’d be great.
0:54:25 I bet she’s really good with a 401(k) or at some points going to buy apartments and fix them up and generate cash flow for us.”
0:54:30 I thought, “I’d really like to have sex with that woman.” And I think sex is a wonderful thing.
0:54:35 And I think desiring sex and wanting to be physical with women, I think that is how most relationships start.
0:54:42 And then you have sex or you’re physical, you really enjoy it. You start hanging out together and you find you like each other
0:54:48 and you find you miss that person and you decide to build a life together and maybe have kids. That’s the whole shooting match.
0:54:55 AI, GDP growth, Trump versus Harris, that is all a means to the ends. And the ends is deep and meaningful relationships.
0:55:00 Specifically, the most important one will be who you have kids with and see above sex.
0:55:10 I think it’s good for men to be, I don’t want to say aggressive, but to initiate contact, to approach strange women or strange men
0:55:14 and express romantic interests while making them feel safe.
0:55:21 If you approach somebody at a bar, ask them out for coffee, whatever it is and they’re not interested, you’re both going to be fine.
0:55:25 You are a provider, a protector and a procreator.
0:55:33 This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez and Caroline Shagren and Drew Burroughs is our technical director.
0:55:36 Thank you for listening to the PropG Pod from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
0:55:40 We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy, No Malice as read by George Hahn.
0:55:46 And please follow our PropG Markets Pod wherever you get your pods for new episodes every Monday and Thursday.
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0:01:50 Welcome to the PropG Pods Office Hours. This is the part of the show where we answer your
0:01:54 questions about business, big tech, entrepreneurship, and whatever else is on your mind.
0:01:55 Hey, PropG.
0:01:56 Hey, Scott and Team.
0:01:57 Hey, Scott.
0:01:58 Hi, PropG.
0:01:59 Hey, PropG.
0:02:00 Hey, PropG.
0:02:01 Hi, Professor G.
0:02:04 If you’d like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours@propgmedia.com.
0:02:09 Again, that’s officehours@propgmedia.com. So with that, first question.
0:02:18 Hi, PropG. This is Carrie from New York City, and I am 54 years old. Thank you so much for
0:02:24 all the years of insights that I’ve gotten from your podcast. I’m calling today to ask
0:02:30 if you have any commentary about the latest drama that’s unfolding with Pfizer’s investor
0:02:36 activists and its former executives who were originally trying to help the activists and
0:02:43 seems like are now not helping them. I don’t imagine that this is normal, but I don’t have
0:02:49 any experience, so your insights would greatly help. I’m an investor advisor, and so I wanted
0:02:55 to find out if you have any advice for me, and also I’m greatly worried for my friends
0:03:00 who work there. Do you have any advice for them? Thank you so much, and I would love
0:03:03 to hear your prediction. Bye.
0:03:08 So thanks very much for the question, Carrie, and I think it’s nice that you would take
0:03:12 the time to ask a question because you’re worried about your friend. We covered this
0:03:16 on PropG Markets a couple of weeks ago, but as a quick refresher, activist investor,
0:03:21 Starboard Capital has taken a $1 billion stake in Pfizer. The fund reportedly reached out
0:03:26 to two former Pfizer executives, the former CEO, Ian Reid, and former CFO, Frank D’Amelio,
0:03:31 to support its agenda. However, things got a little twisted when Reid and D’Amalio unexpectedly
0:03:37 changed their stance and decided to back the current Pfizer CEO. There’s real drama there.
0:03:41 The drama escalated when Borla learned about Starboard’s plan by accident. He received
0:03:46 an incomplete email from D’Amelio, which included a representative from Starboard,
0:03:50 cc’d to the email. That’s how Borla found out that Starboard was preparing to announce
0:03:54 its investment publicly at a conference. In terms of the numbers, Pfizer stock has been
0:03:59 cut in half since its record high in 2021, probably largely on the back of expectation
0:04:04 around their vaccines. It’s flat this year, though, it rose 3% on the news of Starboard
0:04:10 taking an activist investor stake. The stock has cratered as demand for its COVID vaccine
0:04:14 and packs of the treatment have fallen faster than expected. By the way, I love both those
0:04:19 things. Pfizer’s revenue fell 10% and that income dropping almost 60% on the first half.
0:04:24 The company has announced cost cutting campaigns that are expected to save $5.5 billion by
0:04:30 2027. Effectively, what’s happened is they benefited from the sugar high of vaccines,
0:04:35 and that’s still probably a great long-term business, but the world wants GLP-1. Over
0:04:41 the past three years, Pfizer and Moderna have declined 22% and 81% respectively, while Novinordisk
0:04:47 and Eli Lilly have sort of 163% and 305% and investors are sort of, “What have you done
0:04:52 for me lately?” and “Lately needs to be GLP-1.” Pfizer tried to get into the GLP-1 industry
0:04:57 and stubbed its toe, and quite frankly, it didn’t work. It estimated the pill could have
0:05:02 been a $10 billion product with a potential $90 billion market, and instead, it just doesn’t
0:05:04 look like it’s worked.
0:05:09 Starboard has taken very seriously. They took a stake in Salesforce in 2022, urged the company
0:05:13 to cut costs. The stock has done really well since then. They did the same thing at Starbucks,
0:05:21 so look, they will probably give the CEO cloud cover to make some cost cuts. An activist
0:05:24 probably at Starbucks thinks, “Okay, if the guy gets his act together, the stock goes
0:05:28 up, we go away, leave him alone, and if it continues to go down or sideways, we get some
0:05:34 seats on the board and come in and make some changes ourselves.” But I doubt that happens.
0:05:37 Pfizer’s a fantastic company. I would imagine they have good leadership. I don’t know much
0:05:44 about this individual. I would bet he’s going to make some cost cuts and that the stock
0:05:48 probably recovers. That’s not financial advice, but again, thanks for the question.
0:05:53 Question number two. Hey, Scott, this is Reid from San Diego. I took your advice from an
0:05:58 Office Hours episode around a year ago and started making TikToks on my interests in
0:06:03 finance and economics. It’s been a fantastic read of outlet for me, and the reception has
0:06:09 been beyond my wildest expectations, so thank you for the inspiration. My question has to
0:06:15 do with how young professionals should balance a social media presence with professionalism.
0:06:22 I often make comparisons to relationships, substances, and sex in my videos. Can you
0:06:29 tell I’m a fan of yours? But it seems to appeal to my demo of 18 to 26 year old men in finance.
0:06:35 While not super explicit, the jokes are definitely unprofessional. I know you go back and forth
0:06:39 on the dilemma of being family friendly, so if you were young today, how would you weigh
0:06:44 the benefits and risks of making content and sharing your honest thoughts and jokes online?
0:06:45 Thanks for all you do.
0:06:49 This is a really interesting question. I get questions a lot from people saying I admire
0:06:54 how provocative you are, and I even notice sometimes when people on my podcast are more
0:06:57 profane than they are elsewhere because I’m profane and they think I give some cloud cover
0:07:03 to be more profane. What I would say is I have the luxury and the privilege of being
0:07:06 economically secure and having people who love me unconditionally, not that you don’t
0:07:11 have people who love you unconditionally, but I can be profane, I can be vulgar, quite
0:07:15 frankly, I can fuck up. And on a risk-adjusted basis, being profane or vulgar in any professional
0:07:21 situation on a risk-adjusted basis is just a bad idea because you might say something
0:07:26 really inarticulate or really inelegant or just plain fucking stupid and it can really
0:07:31 hurt your career. I’m at a point right now, I actually have a strategic objective around
0:07:36 my profanity and vulgarity. Well, two, one, it’s authentic. I am generally a profane
0:07:41 and vulgar person and I think more people are than I like to admit. And two, I consider
0:07:44 myself a proud progressive and one of the things I do not like about the Democratic
0:07:51 Party is that we have become fucking humorless. And that is, everything’s sensitive, all the
0:07:56 sensitivity training, anything you say could offend people. Well, guess what? Part of getting
0:08:01 to a point of equality is having the confidence and the affection for each other to make fun
0:08:05 of our differences. One of the things I love about my partnership with Cara Swisher who’s
0:08:11 actually coming over for coffee right now is that I make fun of her sexuality and she
0:08:15 makes fun of mine. I make fun of her height and she makes fun of my hair or absence thereup
0:08:19 because we like each other, we’re confident around each other. And I just don’t like an
0:08:25 environment where we’ve become so starched and so humorless that we are just too sensitive
0:08:29 walking on age shells around us. I think that kind of gave rise to Trump where he just came
0:08:35 in and started being offensive and everyone was sort of ready for it. You need to be thoughtful
0:08:39 at a young age about being profane and vulgar. And as it relates to social media, I know
0:08:44 that several big firms, when they’re hiring someone, check their social media. I can’t
0:08:48 get over the people who have jobs and are constantly posting images of themselves and
0:08:52 mykonos and abuse. So it’s like, if I was your boss, I hate to say this, I’d be like,
0:08:57 do you make any time for work? So I think you have to be very thoughtful about the image
0:09:03 you put out there because that is your interview before the interview. Now, if you’re balancing
0:09:07 that with being a creator, I think being authentic is one thing. But I think as a younger person,
0:09:11 you want to match, you really want to be more about substance and half and domain expertise
0:09:19 and creativity and keep air on the side of being less profane and less vulgar than you
0:09:24 would naturally because the reality is, I don’t want to say I can’t be canceled, but
0:09:28 if the advertisers flee from me or Vox finally gets fed up and kicks me to the curb or I
0:09:35 say something and people take it out of context and just run with it and I lose, like I said,
0:09:41 advertisers or my distribution agreements or some employees quit, I’m going to be fine.
0:09:46 If that had happened to me 20 years ago, I would not have been fine. So before you have
0:09:51 economic security, and I hate to say this, you have to be measured. And I don’t think
0:09:55 that’s a good thing. I’m not saying that’s the way the world should be, but that is the
0:10:03 way the world is. We have one quick break before our final question. Stay with us.
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0:13:17 Welcome back question number three. Prof. G. This is Glenn from New Orleans. My girlfriend
0:13:21 and I are late 30s, early 40s, and are set to take a week-long vacation to London in
0:13:26 mid-November. We’re both divorced and we both have young children. We’re leaving behind
0:13:30 to go on this trip. We’re really looking forward to this opportunity together as we’ve
0:13:35 only been dating for a few months and we both love exploring cities. Do you have any recommendations
0:13:40 for a new-ish couple with a good-sized expense budget to make the most of our time together?
0:13:45 We’re staying in Notting Hill and I’ve already put Granger and Co. restaurant on our list.
0:13:49 Thanks so much for providing so much entertainment and insight across all your podcasts.
0:13:56 Oh, Glenn, that’s just so wonderful. And first off, this sounds passe. But go to AI, type
0:14:00 in everything about you and what you want, what you just said to me, and say please arrange
0:14:06 a seven-day itinerary for us. A bunch of that will not be relevant for you, but a bunch
0:14:09 of it will and it’s fun. I’m not good at this because I’m a creature of habit, but I’ll
0:14:17 tell you a few things. I would go see that new ABBA kind of hologram 3D thing. I think
0:14:22 that’s really cool. I would, oh, absolutely, a must. You got to go see a Premier League
0:14:28 game. I hope you’re in town for one, but I don’t care if it’s Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspurs
0:14:36 or my team Arsenal. It is just so much fun. I would walk around Soho. In terms of pubs,
0:14:41 I would specifically go to this one pub actually owned by Guy Ritchie called Lore of the Land
0:14:46 for their Sunday roast. I took my son who just turned 17 for his first kind of legal
0:14:51 beer and I like to do it every week. I just think it was so nice. And my son, I get these
0:14:54 monosyllabic answers from him, but when he has a beer, this probably sounds weird. He
0:15:00 kind of opens up, which I love. I would go do a great tea service at a fancy hotel like
0:15:07 the Barclay or the Connet. I think that is a ton of fun or very British, if you will.
0:15:11 I would do a night out at Soho Farmhouse in the Cotswolds. When I moved to New York, people
0:15:15 said we have beautiful beaches here. I never believe them because I thought, well, I’m
0:15:19 from California and the beaches in the Hamptons are beautiful. And people told me all the
0:15:22 countryside, the British countryside is beautiful. I didn’t believe them. I went out there.
0:15:28 It’s incredible. And Soho Farmhouse is just spectacular. And also along the same lines,
0:15:33 Maison Estelle has a sister property out in the Cotswolds called Estelle Manor, which
0:15:37 is just like Downton Abbey, rehabbed with a bunch of money by people with better tastes
0:15:44 than the Abbeys or whoever they were that operated Downton Abbey. Anyways, great restaurants.
0:15:48 Also just pick a neighborhood and just absolutely just walk around. I think it’s fun to go to
0:15:53 selfridges and have dim sum there. I love those high end malls and my kids for whatever
0:15:58 reason love. I think Westfield’s is kind of, I might tell you to go to malls. Maybe you
0:16:02 don’t have kids. Maybe you don’t need to do this. But anyways, Glenn from New Orleans,
0:16:06 you’re going to have a fantastic time. Sorry, it wasn’t more helpful.
0:16:09 That’s all for this episode. If you’d like to submit a question, please email a voice
0:16:24 recording to officehours@propertymedia.com. Again, that’s officehours@propertymedia.com.
0:16:28 This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez and Caroline Shagrin. And Drew Burroughs is
0:16:32 our technical director. Thank you for listening to the Property Pod and the Vox Media Podcast
0:16:36 Network. We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy, No Malice, as read by George Hahn.
0:16:41 Please follow our Property Markets Pod wherever you get your pods for new episodes every
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0:01:17 -Locan-Raging Moderates, I’m Scott Galloway.
0:01:18 -And I’m Jessica Tarliff.
0:01:22 -And we are live at Maxwell in downtown New York in Tribeca.
0:01:25 [APPLAUSE]
0:01:29 Okay, enough of that. Let’s bring it back to me.
0:01:34 So, I’m pretty sure this place used to be Trapeze.
0:01:35 Do you know what Trapeze is?
0:01:36 -No.
0:01:39 -Does anyone know what Trapeze was?
0:01:40 -One person.
0:01:42 -Oh, it tended of hands going up.
0:01:45 It was a sex club at the turn of the millennium.
0:01:46 True story. True story.
0:01:50 The second woman I dated in New York said,
0:01:53 “I have a really great idea what we should do tonight.”
0:01:55 And the good news is we went to a sex club.
0:01:59 The bad news is only one of us had sex and it wasn’t me.
0:02:01 Anyways, how are you, Jess?
0:02:04 -I’m having a much more PG day than you.
0:02:05 -Yeah?
0:02:07 -I remember this as a Chinese restaurant.
0:02:10 From when I was growing up, it was China Blue.
0:02:12 -Sex club, Chinese restaurant, tomato tomorrow.
0:02:14 -I’m 20 years younger.
0:02:15 -Oh, that hurts.
0:02:16 -Sorry.
0:02:17 -That hurts. Okay.
0:02:19 All right, let’s get back to our– let’s get to why we’re here.
0:02:20 We’re breaking up.
0:02:23 All right, let’s get back to our– let’s get to why we’re here.
0:02:26 We’re breaking down tonight the final stretch
0:02:29 as we enter the home stretch in what is arguably
0:02:31 the closest election in a while, at least.
0:02:32 People will come up to you.
0:02:34 What do you say when people come up to you and say,
0:02:36 “What do you think’s gonna happen?”
0:02:37 -I get really nervous. -Yeah.
0:02:40 -Like, really sweaty, uncomfortable.
0:02:44 And a lot of that is because I have a strong sense of optimism,
0:02:47 which is might be the polyana in me.
0:02:50 And– but I don’t want to get someone else’s hopes up.
0:02:52 I also don’t want to be embarrassed on election night
0:02:54 if it gets called for Trump and I’m sitting there
0:02:55 like a complete asshole that was like,
0:02:58 “No, Kamala could win.”
0:03:02 So I say it’s unbelievably close,
0:03:05 but I still think that there is a decent likelihood
0:03:08 that one of them wins by a pretty substantial amount.
0:03:11 And that doesn’t mean Tuesday night that you know,
0:03:14 but that the tea leaves are all going in one direction.
0:03:16 Like, certain key groups are breaking one way.
0:03:19 And honestly, I think that that is the safest thing
0:03:20 for the fate of democracy.
0:03:22 Whoever wins, that it’s decisive.
0:03:25 And he’ll say whatever he’s gonna say about it,
0:03:27 but that’ll be better for us.
0:03:29 What do you say? Do people say that to you?
0:03:31 -Yeah, I have absolutely no idea.
0:03:33 But you said– you reminded me yesterday–
0:03:34 we had coffee yesterday and you said,
0:03:36 “Whatever happens, you hope it’s decisive.”
0:03:39 And I think that’s actually a really fair point.
0:03:40 So I don’t know if you saw it,
0:03:43 but Vice President Harris was on your network, Fox.
0:03:44 -I definitely saw it. -Yeah.
0:03:48 -Which 50 times. -With Brett Baer?
0:03:49 -Yeah. -Brett Baer?
0:03:50 -You really love Brett. -Yeah, I love Brett.
0:03:53 If there’s a zombie apocalypse, I’m gonna brand it.
0:03:55 But out in front of my house with a submachine gun,
0:03:57 protecting me and my family.
0:03:58 Would you fuck with Brett Baer?
0:04:01 That guy looks like he’s born to kill other people.
0:04:03 (audience laughing)
0:04:05 Not that there’s anything wrong with that, right?
0:04:09 Anyways, what did you think of the conversation
0:04:13 and kind of the one moment that he apologized for later?
0:04:15 What’s your take on it? Recognizing they pay you?
0:04:18 -Right. Everyone in the room, please recognize that.
0:04:20 That’s foundational to everything that I do.
0:04:22 And I love my job.
0:04:24 Not just saying that for the audience,
0:04:27 but it’s a ton of fun and it’s great.
0:04:30 So I went back and forth as I was watching the interview.
0:04:32 And I had some moments where I was like,
0:04:33 she totally nailed that.
0:04:36 I had some moments where I was just happy
0:04:38 that Brett was asking her the things
0:04:40 that are in the minds of lots of voters.
0:04:43 I mean, you’re thinking about such a small subsection
0:04:45 of the population who actually is undecided.
0:04:49 And I don’t know if by today, this was last Wednesday,
0:04:51 it’s probably hundreds less than it was
0:04:52 even when they filmed that interview
0:04:55 that have their minds to make up.
0:04:57 But in the aftermath of it,
0:05:00 I think that both of them kind of won
0:05:02 and that’s the point of it.
0:05:06 So for people that have been concerned about Kamala Harris
0:05:08 that she isn’t competent
0:05:09 or she doesn’t have the kind of substance
0:05:13 or the heft behind her to be able to sit down
0:05:15 and take the tough questions,
0:05:16 she proved that.
0:05:17 I mean, she didn’t waffle at all.
0:05:21 There was no laughing or kind of circuitous talking
0:05:24 which she had been, you know, pinged for before.
0:05:26 And I actually think that his style,
0:05:28 which I know is one of the commentary points about it
0:05:29 that he was interrupting her.
0:05:31 I think it helped her a lot
0:05:34 because it didn’t allow her to get lost in herself.
0:05:38 He kept redirecting her to the topic at hand.
0:05:40 I thought she did well on that enemy within question.
0:05:42 And also talking about her proposals.
0:05:45 I mean, that’s one of the big issues
0:05:47 that I think the media has with this race.
0:05:49 And I mean, the media writ large
0:05:52 is the double standard in terms of specificity
0:05:54 that they say, well, Donald Trump’s answering these questions.
0:05:56 Like, I don’t know if you guys saw,
0:05:58 but he was with the Wall Street Journal editorial board
0:06:01 and they said, you know, his acuity has never been better
0:06:04 and he’s offering all these specific policy positions.
0:06:06 And I’m like, I listened to the guy talk
0:06:09 about Arnold Palmer’s junk on Saturday night.
0:06:11 Like, this is not what’s going on here.
0:06:13 – I ordered a stiff Arnold Palmer,
0:06:15 and Jack’s like, for you, thinking it was hilarious.
0:06:17 And the guy’s like, we don’t do that.
0:06:19 – You got the wrong sex club.
0:06:20 – Yeah.
0:06:23 – So, see, it came back to you.
0:06:26 – Yeah, I love chow man with that.
0:06:28 – Did you, what did you think about it?
0:06:30 – I’m so triggered by it.
0:06:32 I have trouble watching.
0:06:34 I don’t think she’s great on her feet.
0:06:36 So whenever I watch her live,
0:06:38 I just get very stressed out.
0:06:41 I thought, I thought they did a reasonable job.
0:06:43 I think it’s good that she’s there.
0:06:45 And like you said, I think you described it perfectly.
0:06:46 I think it was a win for Brett,
0:06:50 a win for Fox, and a win for her just by being there.
0:06:51 So at this point though,
0:06:53 I don’t know anyone who’s watching Fox,
0:06:55 who’s probably undecided.
0:06:58 Although you pointed out something I had not considered,
0:07:00 because I love CNN and I go on Fox,
0:07:01 but I don’t love it as much.
0:07:03 I’ll just leave it at that.
0:07:07 But you pointed out that actually Fox has more moderates
0:07:12 watching than CNN, which was really striking to me.
0:07:14 – Yeah, it’s, I think the breakdown,
0:07:17 and now I’ll do a plug for the five.
0:07:18 This will surprise you,
0:07:23 but 22% now of the five viewership are Democrats,
0:07:28 38% are independents, and the rest are Republicans.
0:07:33 And the way that the cable news eco-sphere has shaped out
0:07:38 kind of in the Trump era is that if you are looking
0:07:42 to watch something that isn’t just 24 hours, I hate Trump,
0:07:44 you are tuning in to Fox at this point.
0:07:46 Now you might have your hosts that you like better,
0:07:50 you might not be tuning in for the primetime programming,
0:07:54 but you can see people from both parties being interviewed.
0:07:59 And I think, I mean, this argument is sometimes
0:08:03 a tough sell, but when you hear opposition voices
0:08:06 on other networks and they’re never Trump Republicans,
0:08:09 you aren’t necessarily getting a real look
0:08:11 at what’s going on in politics today.
0:08:13 I love a lot of these people like,
0:08:15 I love Alyssa Farah Griffin, who’s on the view
0:08:16 and is on CNN.
0:08:18 Where Alyssa Farah Griffin is,
0:08:20 is not where the majority of Republicans are.
0:08:22 Liz Cheney, God love her,
0:08:24 maybe she delivers us the election.
0:08:27 I don’t know, but the way Liz Cheney thinks about the world
0:08:30 is not the way the average Republican does.
0:08:31 – But along those lines,
0:08:33 so Vice President Harris has been campaigning
0:08:36 with a lot of Republicans in Pennsylvania.
0:08:38 There’s, you know, Adam Kitzinger,
0:08:40 Barbara Comstock was Cheney.
0:08:43 Do you think that’s effective or are they seen as,
0:08:47 so what I find online is that Republicans just write me off,
0:08:49 like whatever, he’s a libtard, right?
0:08:51 I’m used to that.
0:08:54 What I find is where I get the most vicious attacks though,
0:08:55 it’s from the far left,
0:08:57 ’cause they treat me like an apostate.
0:08:59 Like we thought we could trust you.
0:09:00 – Right.
0:09:02 – But actually, there’s no room for moderates,
0:09:03 is what I find online.
0:09:06 You’re either, and I find the far left quite frankly,
0:09:08 at least for center left,
0:09:11 is much more unforgiving than the far right.
0:09:12 They just write you off.
0:09:14 The far left acts like you’re a traitor.
0:09:15 If you don’t sign up for the cult
0:09:18 and the exact narrative they want you to buy into.
0:09:21 And I wonder if, in fact,
0:09:25 these people are seen as apostates and don’t help at all.
0:09:28 That they actually, oh, no wonder they’re with her,
0:09:29 they’re traitors.
0:09:32 I just don’t know.
0:09:33 I don’t know if it moves the needle at all.
0:09:35 You would logically think Republicans coming out
0:09:38 and favor her, but the Republicans coming out
0:09:40 are the ones that kind of what I’ll call
0:09:45 the Maga Republicans just think are the establishment
0:09:46 and no better than Democrats.
0:09:48 Fair?
0:09:50 – It is fair, and also I think
0:09:52 a little more complicated than that.
0:09:55 So the latest polling out of Pennsylvania,
0:09:57 for instance, shows that 12% of Republican voters
0:10:00 are supporting Kamala Harris,
0:10:02 which could be determinative, if you think that.
0:10:04 – Do you know what it was for past elections?
0:10:05 I need a benchmark for that.
0:10:07 Is that low or high?
0:10:08 – Oh, it’s really high.
0:10:11 Sorry, did my voice not intimate that that was a good thing?
0:10:12 – Yeah, that’s a big thing.
0:10:12 – Okay.
0:10:13 – That’s a big thing.
0:10:14 – In really positive news.
0:10:18 And I think it’s something like upwards of 30%
0:10:19 of Nikki Haley’s primary voters
0:10:21 have said they’re going to back Harris.
0:10:22 Like that’s across the country.
0:10:24 So that’s going to be popping up in North Carolina.
0:10:26 It’s going to be popping up in Georgia.
0:10:31 And I think what Kamala has been able to do
0:10:33 that it seems like has the most chance of being effective
0:10:36 is she’s siloing her different campaigns.
0:10:41 So she has a campaign for disaffected Republicans
0:10:43 who pro-democracy Republicans,
0:10:45 which you can have that conversation with Liz Cheney.
0:10:49 Then she is having a conversation with minority voters.
0:10:51 Like last week was the tour of that,
0:10:54 the Charlemagne the God Town Hall, all of that.
0:10:57 She is having a campaign that is just for women,
0:10:59 talking about reproductive freedom
0:11:03 and mind your damn business as Tim Walls was saying.
0:11:06 And I know that that makes some people uncomfortable.
0:11:07 And we’ve talked to this,
0:11:09 like you don’t like identity politics.
0:11:10 I think it’s a necessary evil.
0:11:12 – You might be right, yeah.
0:11:13 – And if you’re going to show up
0:11:16 and you’re going to talk to a room full of X group,
0:11:18 you better have something specific to tell them
0:11:21 about how their life is going to be better
0:11:22 when you’re president.
0:11:24 So let’s shift gears to Trump.
0:11:26 He’s been serving fries.
0:11:26 – Yeah.
0:11:29 – He’s at, well, first up,
0:11:31 did you ever work at a fast food restaurant?
0:11:34 – No, I was a hostess and I fainted the first day
0:11:35 from the stress of it.
0:11:36 It was so embarrassing.
0:11:37 My mom is here.
0:11:39 My dad has to come pick me up.
0:11:40 – That’s a stressful job.
0:11:41 – Thank you.
0:11:42 – Like trying to assess the landscape
0:11:44 and where does it go on table?
0:11:46 – Like plugging in the orders
0:11:47 and when people have a modification.
0:11:49 – I get nervous just thinking about it.
0:11:50 – Did you do fast food?
0:11:51 – You fainted?
0:11:52 – I did.
0:11:53 I was, it’s a long story.
0:11:57 I had had, I had gotten sick in Mexico,
0:12:00 like a week and a half before I was low on Gatorade,
0:12:03 but it was also very stressful on top of it.
0:12:06 It’s not a good story.
0:12:06 I shouldn’t have said it.
0:12:07 – I’m more responsible.
0:12:10 So I was a bus boy at dishwasher
0:12:11 at a place called islands.
0:12:13 I delivered pizzas for this place
0:12:16 called the pizza joint in Beverly Hills.
0:12:18 I did a lot of services work.
0:12:19 I think it should be mandatory for every kid
0:12:21 to do some sort of services work.
0:12:25 I think it builds character, makes you less of an asshole.
0:12:27 I’m a huge fan of service work.
0:12:29 Anyways, not for the president.
0:12:31 I don’t think that makes a lot of sense.
0:12:35 And so Fox News Women’s Town Hall,
0:12:38 which we found out was full of Trump supporters.
0:12:39 How did you think that went?
0:12:43 – So again, and this is where I wonder,
0:12:45 and if we want to talk about Elon Musk,
0:12:46 it comes back to this.
0:12:47 I feel more intense than-
0:12:49 – By the way, he’s a tech executive.
0:12:50 (audience laughing)
0:12:52 – That’s Scott and Kara really like.
0:12:55 – Yeah, you know, he’s wealthy
0:12:57 and he’s, anyway, I’m sorry, go ahead.
0:13:00 – I feel that my algorithm has done more damage
0:13:03 to my mental health in the last two weeks
0:13:06 than it has the entirety of my time on Twitter.
0:13:08 – That’s called Instagram.
0:13:09 – I could do that.
0:13:10 I need to go other places.
0:13:12 – Why is that, say more.
0:13:15 – Whether Musk, I don’t know exactly how it’s working
0:13:17 and this does coincide with him dumping
0:13:19 even more and more money into it.
0:13:23 I feel like I am not seeing any good stuff
0:13:25 for the Democrats and I am only seeing
0:13:27 incredibly positive stuff for Trump.
0:13:29 I see some heads nodding out there
0:13:31 and I don’t know, I’m not a conspiracy theorist,
0:13:33 I’m not saying that all the engineers there
0:13:37 are out to get me and to ruin the five o’clock show
0:13:39 to have no opposition, but I, at first,
0:13:41 saw only kind of positive things for him
0:13:43 out of the town hall and then I went looking for it
0:13:47 and then I saw that on certain grounds,
0:13:50 you could say it was an abject disaster for him,
0:13:52 that you had Republican women saying,
0:13:54 why do you think the government should have anything
0:13:55 to do with my basic rights?
0:13:57 And then he just bragged again.
0:13:58 – That I’m the father of IVF.
0:14:01 – The father of IVF, which is unclear.
0:14:03 I love that he said that and then he admitted
0:14:06 he had to ask Katie Britt what it was.
0:14:10 And then he was like, oh yeah, definitely the father of that.
0:14:13 – My sense is the stuff that’s trying to embarrass him,
0:14:17 when he calls Kamala, Vice President Harris,
0:14:22 a shitty VP, when he has these Ave Maria moments,
0:14:27 I think that actually helps him
0:14:29 because we’re all talking about it
0:14:32 and we want to get our sensors up and we want reasons
0:14:35 to be angry and talk about what an idiot is.
0:14:39 And the issue is the people whose sensors that tickles,
0:14:41 we’re already decided.
0:14:45 And the problem is that as that takes up oxygen in the room,
0:14:47 as opposed to talking about real issues
0:14:49 that might actually change voters’ minds,
0:14:54 such as if these proposed tariffs ever become a reality
0:14:58 and there’s anything in congruence
0:14:59 with what he’s trying to do with immigration,
0:15:01 both legal and anti-illegal,
0:15:02 that is literally a peanut butter
0:15:05 and chocolate combination for runaway inflation.
0:15:08 To me, that’s the thing we should be talking about right now,
0:15:10 not what an idiot he is or how ridiculous.
0:15:14 We know that, we get it, we’ve been there, right?
0:15:16 We saw it with Biden, right?
0:15:17 Now we’re seeing it with him, right?
0:15:21 He’s adult, but instead, but all of this stuff,
0:15:25 I think they like it when folks like us or CNN
0:15:27 or whoever it is or the algorithms
0:15:28 are serving up all these ridiculous moments
0:15:31 ’cause the people who like them, they don’t care.
0:15:35 They know they’re in on that, whatever, right?
0:15:37 And it makes us feel good,
0:15:39 but any of the real issues just get squeezed out
0:15:43 that might squeeze out or that might attract swing voters.
0:15:47 I just think it’s a strategy and we’re being played,
0:15:49 talking about the stupid shit he does
0:15:52 and how ridiculous he is, we already know that,
0:15:54 but it crowds out anything resembling a conversation
0:15:58 that I think swing voters wanna talk about.
0:16:01 The deficit would go up, his proposed economic plan,
0:16:04 the deficit would be triple what it is
0:16:09 under the proposed economic plan of Harris.
0:16:11 That is effectively, effectively
0:16:14 the biggest tax increase in history on young people
0:16:16 ’cause I won’t be here to pay back that debt.
0:16:19 I’ll get the champagne and cocaine that that will create.
0:16:20 I’ll get the stimulus for it.
0:16:23 It’ll prop up my assets, which I already own,
0:16:26 but effectively the largest tax increase in history
0:16:29 on young people is being proposed by an economic plan
0:16:31 that’ll massively explode our deficit
0:16:33 ’cause we have enough credit worthiness
0:16:36 to pay it back for 20 or 30 years, we’ll be fine,
0:16:39 but when shit gets real in 20 or 30 years,
0:16:40 it’s gonna be really ugly.
0:16:41 I think that’s a real issue.
0:16:43 If I was a young person, I’d wanna know, wait,
0:16:46 that’s about to be the largest tax increase in history on me,
0:16:48 but we don’t get time to talk about this stuff
0:16:51 ’cause we’re talking about fucking Ave Maria.
0:16:53 Back to you.
0:16:54 (audience laughing)
0:16:57 – Well, I would say, and obviously I have
0:17:01 a little bit of a strange job in the main scheme of things,
0:17:05 but you only get, if you’re gonna push back on something,
0:17:07 even if you’re having a discussion with a friend,
0:17:08 you only get a finite amount of time
0:17:11 to actually make an impact on their thinking.
0:17:15 And what Ave Maria does, or Arnold Palmer,
0:17:18 or the late great Hannibal Lecter,
0:17:20 whoever we’re talking to that,
0:17:23 you got stuck for at least 30 seconds
0:17:26 in this hellscape where someone is telling you,
0:17:28 but he’s funny, right?
0:17:29 Or we like that he has a sense of humor,
0:17:31 he doesn’t take himself that seriously,
0:17:34 which I like in a person, generally.
0:17:36 I mean, I’m big enough to admit that there are moments
0:17:39 where Donald Trump is wildly charming.
0:17:41 I thought that the hour that he did
0:17:43 on my colleague Greg Guttfeld’s show,
0:17:46 if you didn’t see it, was a side of him
0:17:48 that I totally get why voters are into.
0:17:50 He wasn’t combative at all
0:17:52 because he was with people who like him,
0:17:55 and he was talking about what it’s like to go on Johnny Carson
0:17:58 and like to party at Studio 54.
0:18:02 You know, I went to see The Apprentice over the weekend,
0:18:04 which I have many thoughts about,
0:18:05 but part of it that was awesome
0:18:10 was seeing Donald Trump opening up these incredible buildings
0:18:11 all across New York City,
0:18:13 and how he navigated all of that.
0:18:15 And like, I can see the appeal of it.
0:18:19 So if you get lost, if you spent 30 seconds to 60 seconds
0:18:23 dealing with, we’re talking about a commander in chief,
0:18:24 we’re not talking about someone
0:18:26 that you wanna go out and have a drink with,
0:18:28 then you do lose people’s attention
0:18:31 to get back to them with the ammo of,
0:18:34 why do you not care that a deportation force
0:18:37 is gonna cause inflation like we’ve never seen?
0:18:39 Or do you not care about the deficit?
0:18:42 Or Kamala Harris actually has a plan
0:18:43 for your aging mother,
0:18:46 who might have to die in a hospital
0:18:47 versus being able to die at home.
0:18:48 We were talking about that last week.
0:18:53 It’s by far and away the best policy of either campaign
0:18:55 to have Medicare cover that.
0:18:58 And she can’t get a word in edgewise about it
0:19:00 because she’s on the defensive constantly.
0:19:06 – Fox Creative.
0:19:09 – This is “Apertizer Content” from Virgin Atlantic.
0:19:10 (beeping)
0:19:11 – Hey, Kara, it’s Scott.
0:19:14 Remember me, the guy, Tina Fade, your Alec Baldwin,
0:19:16 sort of rejuvenated your career.
0:19:17 And he was, I’m at the lounge at Heathrow.
0:19:19 I’m at the Leathrow, the Virgin Lounge,
0:19:21 the Virgin Atlantic Clubhouse Lounge.
0:19:24 And I’m about to have the chicken tikka masala.
0:19:25 I love it here.
0:19:26 You should check it out.
0:19:27 It’s where the cool kids hang out.
0:19:30 Anyways, hope you’re all safe travels.
0:19:32 – Scott, frankly, it’s a miracle that Virgin Atlantic
0:19:33 let you into the clubhouse
0:19:35 and their incredible business class.
0:19:36 But I guess they did.
0:19:38 Tell me how it was.
0:19:40 – So, Kara, I’m an original gangster
0:19:41 when it comes to Virgin.
0:19:45 I’ve been flying Virgin for 20 plus years.
0:19:47 And I do the same thing.
0:19:49 And they get it right every time.
0:19:51 They always have the financial times for me.
0:19:53 And I order the chicken tikka masala.
0:19:57 And that is my Virgin experience.
0:19:58 If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
0:20:01 – And your drink was, what is your drink?
0:20:03 – Well, I used to drink a Bloody Mary
0:20:05 or a beer in the clubhouse.
0:20:08 I started, I don’t drink alcohol when I travel anymore.
0:20:09 So I just do mineral water,
0:20:11 but they have this kind of cool cocktail
0:20:13 that’s like a lemongrass
0:20:15 or some sort of cool margarita thing.
0:20:16 And I get a Virgin one.
0:20:18 – What is your pre-flight routine?
0:20:20 What is your actual, besides your chicken tikka masala,
0:20:22 the Virgin clubhouse?
0:20:24 – My pre-flight routine is,
0:20:26 well, I always do the same thing the morning when I travel.
0:20:27 I try and work out.
0:20:28 I take the dogs for a walk.
0:20:30 And I always make time for the clubhouse
0:20:32 ’cause I do enjoy the Virgin clubhouse at Heathrow.
0:20:35 So check out virginatlantic.com for your next trip
0:20:37 and see the world differently.
0:20:38 Certain amenities are only available
0:20:40 in selected cabins and aircraft.
0:20:46 Support for this episode is brought to you by Express VPN.
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0:21:57 This week on PropG Markets,
0:21:58 we speak with Alice Hahn,
0:22:01 China Economist and Director at GreenMantle.
0:22:04 We discuss the impacts of China’s stimulus plan,
0:22:06 the threat of a war with Taiwan
0:22:08 and the likelihood that China and the US
0:22:09 will fix their relationship.
0:22:12 You look at middle America that’s been carved out,
0:22:15 jobs that have effectively gone towards China
0:22:17 and other cheaper markets around the world
0:22:19 and you were left with, you know,
0:22:21 industries that have been hollowed out,
0:22:23 you only need to look at Detroit to see that.
0:22:25 And so you’ve got this political backlash
0:22:28 that has been aimed fully and squarely at China
0:22:29 and it’s a backlash that is politically
0:22:31 and economically motivated.
0:22:33 – You can find that conversation and many others
0:22:36 exclusively on the PropG Markets podcast.
0:22:40 – What did you think?
0:22:44 It felt like JD Van sort of tried to answer the question,
0:22:46 he gets over and over, do you believe
0:22:48 that Biden was fairly elected?
0:22:50 What did you think of his response?
0:22:53 – He’s very slick, he’s very good.
0:22:57 I think, I said today, like, of the four people
0:23:00 that are, you know, the presidential candidates
0:23:03 and the VP’s, I think he’s arguably the smartest
0:23:06 and the best debater of all of them.
0:23:07 – Absolutely, I think he’s brilliant.
0:23:12 – And I think it’s a fine word salad of the thing.
0:23:14 But again, to the point about Liz Cheney,
0:23:17 for the voters who need someone to say,
0:23:19 Donald Trump lost the election
0:23:21 and then he tried to overturn the result,
0:23:23 nothing he says is ever gonna be good enough,
0:23:26 but it gives this kind of 20 to 30%
0:23:33 who know better but want you to keep soothing them that way.
0:23:36 And I just wonder also, how does that conversation go?
0:23:39 Like, do you think Donald Trump ever explicitly said to him,
0:23:42 you may never contradict me on this
0:23:45 or it’s just implied of the top lieutenants
0:23:48 that you can never seem normal about it?
0:23:51 Because I bet, honestly, if JD Vance even broke a little bit,
0:23:53 that it could bring some voters back into the fold
0:23:56 because is Trump gonna finish his term?
0:24:00 I don’t know, he doesn’t seem that mentally well,
0:24:03 he’s exhausted, he’s talking about it now.
0:24:05 So I think people would find JD Vance more palatable
0:24:08 if they knew that he was a little bit more normal.
0:24:10 – Yeah, there’s sort of the issues we talk about
0:24:11 and a lot of them I think are more, again,
0:24:13 just to there to tickle our senses
0:24:14 instead of the real issues.
0:24:16 I think the most important person in this race
0:24:19 that we don’t talk about is a guy named Peter Thiel.
0:24:22 And essentially Peter Thiel is kind of,
0:24:23 everyone’s obsessed with Elon Musk,
0:24:27 Peter Thiel is the power player that no one talks about.
0:24:32 And that is essentially Senator Vance served in the Marines
0:24:34 and he should be honored for that and respected for it,
0:24:35 wrote a wonderful book.
0:24:37 I think it’s a, that is a brilliant book.
0:24:40 He is a very intelligent man.
0:24:42 He had a mediocre career as a venture capitalist
0:24:44 and that’s being generous.
0:24:47 And then a billionaire found him
0:24:50 and essentially got him elected as Senator
0:24:53 and is now the man behind him ascending.
0:24:56 Kind of, I think the deal is something like this,
0:24:57 we’ll give your campaign a lot of money.
0:25:00 I know how to game social media.
0:25:01 This is going to be your VP.
0:25:05 And the thing about a democracy,
0:25:06 and there’s a lot of studies showing
0:25:08 that it works better than autocracies,
0:25:09 is checks and balances.
0:25:11 The reason why we have a lot of this in transagents,
0:25:12 three branches of government,
0:25:14 555 people who don’t get along,
0:25:17 is we don’t make stupid decisions really quickly.
0:25:18 There’s a wisdom of crowds.
0:25:20 There is a wisdom of democracy.
0:25:23 And if Trump wins, there’s a one,
0:25:24 if you look at actuarial tables,
0:25:27 right, a 70 year old obese man,
0:25:28 over the next four and a half years
0:25:31 has a one in three chance of dying.
0:25:33 That means we are very actually,
0:25:35 right now, if you believe the edges to Trump,
0:25:37 which I do, I don’t want to believe that,
0:25:39 but I do believe it’s gone to head.
0:25:41 Yeah, I think he’s got the edge right now.
0:25:44 That means you have a guy who is essentially,
0:25:46 I don’t want to say owned,
0:25:49 but Senator, Vice President,
0:25:51 and potentially President Vance,
0:25:54 will never utter one word to Peter Thiel,
0:25:55 and that word is no.
0:25:58 He is there because of Peter Thiel.
0:26:00 So you’re about to have the most powerful person
0:26:03 on top of the most powerful nation,
0:26:05 the biggest military,
0:26:07 and the largest economy on the world,
0:26:10 is the guy who’s going to have all the power cry, frankly,
0:26:13 is the guy most Americans have never heard of,
0:26:14 and we never talk about it.
0:26:16 And I think if the Democrats were better,
0:26:18 and better messaging,
0:26:20 they would talk more about Peter Thiel and say,
0:26:21 this guy’s going to run the country.
0:26:23 Are you down with that?
0:26:26 One of the components of a democracy
0:26:28 is there are a lot of people with a lot of power.
0:26:30 This guy is literally going to be the guy
0:26:32 who made the president.
0:26:35 And I was trying to think throughout political history,
0:26:37 if there’s ever been an individual
0:26:41 who would have the kind of power that’s not elected,
0:26:42 maybe Rupert Murdoch,
0:26:47 I don’t know, that Thiel’s going to have if they win.
0:26:49 Well, I think an interesting comp,
0:26:54 and it shows that this would have been possible
0:26:55 without such a truncated campaign.
0:26:57 I mean, you have to remember that this,
0:26:59 she only got four months to do this.
0:27:02 So a lot of the groundwork that would have been laid
0:27:04 would have come earlier.
0:27:07 But in just eight to 10 weeks,
0:27:10 the Democrats have managed to completely socialize
0:27:12 Project 2025 and the Heritage Foundation
0:27:17 and get it up to like an 80% negativity perspective
0:27:18 or whatever the right way is to say,
0:27:21 people know what Project 2025 is and they hate it.
0:27:22 Whatever aspect they’re looking at,
0:27:24 like if you’re in the reproductive rights angle,
0:27:26 I mean, you’ve seen the porn industry
0:27:29 is taking out ads against Project 2025
0:27:32 because that’s something that would be banned.
0:27:37 You have, we interviewed Larry Hogan a few weeks ago
0:27:41 and he hates Project 2025 because of the number
0:27:43 of bureaucrats that are going to get laid off
0:27:44 because of it, because in Maryland,
0:27:48 what most people do, they work in the government.
0:27:49 You think there could have been a way
0:27:52 to have an anti-Peter Thiel campaign
0:27:54 and you could have turned him into
0:27:58 the human Project 2025, right, to talk about that.
0:27:59 But it was a missed opportunity
0:28:01 and there was something that came out over the weekend.
0:28:05 I forget what article it was,
0:28:08 but it said that Democrats really missed an opportunity
0:28:12 by excluding Elon Musk from the fold.
0:28:13 And I wanted to ask you about it,
0:28:17 that we could have taken him in
0:28:20 and told him all the stuff that is true,
0:28:23 like you launch rockets, we all drive your cars,
0:28:26 you get Starlink to people from everywhere,
0:28:29 from North Carolina to Ukraine to Estonia.
0:28:30 We want you on our team.
0:28:34 And because he is the island of the misfit toys,
0:28:36 he took the rejection of that
0:28:39 from when he first started doing interviews
0:28:43 and talking about threats to the First Amendment, et cetera.
0:28:44 And we kind of banished him.
0:28:47 And now we’re paying the price for it.
0:28:50 I mean, what is he spending like a million dollars a day
0:28:52 or something on recruiting people
0:28:54 or getting people to sign up to vote,
0:28:55 the get out the vote effort that he’s funding.
0:28:59 And do you think we should have held him tight?
0:29:01 – So the, I hate to admit this,
0:29:03 ’cause I think it’s a terrible role model for young men,
0:29:07 but there are millions, if not tens of millions of people
0:29:09 who think he’s the most impressive person on the planet.
0:29:11 And you can empathize with that.
0:29:13 And I think one of the biggest strategic errors
0:29:18 if you go back in time was Biden had an EV summit
0:29:20 and didn’t invite Musk.
0:29:22 And that was just fucking stupid.
0:29:23 – That’s so weird.
0:29:25 – That’s just basically saying,
0:29:27 I mean, Tesla has inspired the EV race.
0:29:29 It’s a great American company.
0:29:31 It’s created a ton of shareholder value.
0:29:34 And to have an EV summit and just bring,
0:29:36 you know, the CEO of the Pontiac Leaf,
0:29:40 it’s just, okay, what you’re saying is that’s a big,
0:29:43 you’re sticking up the middle finger deal on Musk.
0:29:45 And I don’t think he’s ever forgiven them for that.
0:29:46 – Why would you?
0:29:48 I mean, you never would.
0:29:49 – Oh.
0:29:51 – No, I don’t want, you’re a far better man.
0:29:53 – No, no, no, no, no.
0:29:56 I hold grudges for much less than that.
0:30:00 But, and then when you see this projectile,
0:30:04 it has 16 stories crashing and barreling towards Earth.
0:30:07 And then it ignites and somehow gets caught
0:30:09 by a metal contraption.
0:30:10 I look at that and I’m like, yeah,
0:30:12 I’ll vote for whoever that guy’s voting for.
0:30:14 I mean, the reality is that she’s just really,
0:30:15 really impressive.
0:30:19 And I think they massively screwed up alienating him.
0:30:22 Now, to the extent, so let’s use that as a bridge
0:30:24 to he is now giving a million dollars a day,
0:30:27 I think in a lottery for if you get someone
0:30:28 to register to vote.
0:30:31 And my understanding is legal scholars
0:30:34 have pretty much weighed in and have said,
0:30:36 it’s not only deeply concerning,
0:30:38 but I’ve seen things highlighted that said bottom line is,
0:30:42 it’s a violation of campaign election laws and it’s illegal.
0:30:44 But here’s the problem.
0:30:47 And that is the algebra of deterrence is not in place.
0:30:50 What is the algebra of deterrence?
0:30:52 The majority of us will never commit a crime,
0:30:53 one ’cause we like to think we’re good people
0:30:54 and good citizens,
0:30:56 but I would argue the algebra of deterrence
0:30:57 is why we don’t commit crimes.
0:30:59 And the algebra is very straightforward.
0:31:00 It’s the likelihood you get caught
0:31:02 times the penalty has to be greater
0:31:04 than the potential upside.
0:31:07 So I have access to inside information occasionally, right?
0:31:09 Serving on boards and shit like that.
0:31:11 I would like to make a lot of money.
0:31:12 I could talk myself, I don’t think,
0:31:15 but I could see how people could rationalize
0:31:18 a way to make money with insider trading.
0:31:21 But if you’re a straight white guy on a board
0:31:25 and you’re caught trading on insider information,
0:31:27 you could go to jail for a very long time.
0:31:29 The upside’s just not worth it.
0:31:30 The likelihood you get caught
0:31:32 in a digital age is pretty high.
0:31:35 The likelihood based on your background,
0:31:37 if you’re that privileged to be on a board,
0:31:39 that they’re not gonna show you any sort of leniency
0:31:41 and you end up in jail and the Southern District
0:31:43 comes after you full-throated.
0:31:44 I think a lot of people do that math and go,
0:31:47 no, I’ll make sure that I’m not trading in stocks
0:31:49 where I have non-material insider information.
0:31:51 The algebra of deterrence is in place.
0:31:54 It is not in place in some key areas in our economy.
0:31:57 I can have information that 15-year-old girls
0:32:01 are cutting themselves and are suitably more depressed
0:32:03 and engaging in self-harm.
0:32:05 And I can see that information and I can cover it up
0:32:08 and I can lie about it because if I get fined,
0:32:11 or if someone says you violated your consent decree,
0:32:15 the fine might be 11 weeks of free cash flow.
0:32:16 So the algebra of deterrence is not in place
0:32:18 in what is the largest sector in our economy
0:32:19 and not as a tax sector.
0:32:21 Until someone shows up in an orange suit,
0:32:24 an orange suit, when we find out they knew
0:32:26 that their products were damaging young women
0:32:29 or girls specifically or that they were radicalizing
0:32:30 young men, nothing’s gonna happen
0:32:32 because we can’t come up with fines big enough.
0:32:34 The algebra of deterrence is not in place.
0:32:36 The problem I see with the must thing
0:32:38 is he’s done the math.
0:32:40 Yeah, it’s illegal.
0:32:41 But they’re not, if Trump wins,
0:32:43 they’re not gonna kick him out of office
0:32:46 because of an illegal campaign tactic.
0:32:48 There is no fine big enough for Trump.
0:32:49 His lawyers, I’m sure his lawyers, he said,
0:32:50 can I go to jail for that?
0:32:52 I know, is it illegal?
0:32:53 Yeah, but can I go to jail for it?
0:32:54 No, how big will the fine be?
0:32:56 I don’t know, 10 or 59?
0:32:58 Fuck it, let’s roll, let’s roll.
0:33:00 The algebra of deterrence is also not in place
0:33:02 with very wealthy taxpayers
0:33:04 because very wealthy people
0:33:06 have very complicated tax returns.
0:33:08 And essentially because of the underfunding
0:33:10 that happened until the last year,
0:33:12 the likelihood of you getting caught is so minimal
0:33:15 that it encourages very, very wealthy people
0:33:20 to be so incredibly aggressive with their taxes
0:33:22 that the algebra of deterrence isn’t in place there.
0:33:24 And I don’t think it’s here either.
0:33:27 There are just specific parts of our economy
0:33:30 where it pays to break the law.
0:33:31 If you had a parking meter in front of your house
0:33:34 that costs 100 bucks an hour and the ticket was 25 cents,
0:33:36 you would break the law.
0:33:38 And I see this as a perfect example
0:33:39 until they actually say, all right,
0:33:41 if you blatantly violate campaign laws,
0:33:43 you can no longer spend money on media.
0:33:45 You have an injunction, you’re done.
0:33:46 You can’t spend money on media
0:33:50 or even maybe have a recall election after the fact.
0:33:54 Until that happens, why wouldn’t you break the law?
0:33:57 – Well, if you have no moral compass, yeah, 100%.
0:34:00 Sure, that’s a hard one for me.
0:34:01 I’m so afraid of everything.
0:34:05 It’s like the Jewish female guilt nervousness thing
0:34:07 that there’s no way that I’d be able to do it.
0:34:09 But I think it’s another reason
0:34:12 that the Trump campaign is benefiting
0:34:14 from this truncated schedule
0:34:16 because Musk only started doing this
0:34:18 like three, four days ago or something like that.
0:34:22 So worst case scenario, oh, I did it for two weeks.
0:34:24 It’s not like I had this plan in place
0:34:27 and I’ve been doing it for an entire year.
0:34:28 – Yeah, that’s totally different.
0:34:33 – It’s also, it’s been wildly ineffective
0:34:34 what he’s been doing.
0:34:36 And this has been a theme that we’re talking about.
0:34:40 The Guardian had a scoop over the weekend
0:34:43 that a quarter of the door knockers
0:34:46 in Arizona and Nevada for the Trump campaign,
0:34:49 so Musk is paying them, the money’s coming from him,
0:34:52 are writing fraudulent reports.
0:34:54 They’re not actually knocking on doors
0:34:55 ’cause they go back and they check,
0:34:56 like, did you hear from somebody?
0:34:58 And they just marked it off and took the money
0:35:01 and went and got some beers or whatever they’re gonna do.
0:35:03 So I continue to be heartened
0:35:07 by the Democrats’ organization on a comparative level,
0:35:09 like canvassing matters.
0:35:12 And you’re seeing all of these deeply reported pieces,
0:35:16 especially in swing districts like in Arizona and Georgia,
0:35:19 where people are talking about their interactions
0:35:22 with voters and are meeting a lot of women in particular,
0:35:23 which isn’t surprising
0:35:26 since we’re trending towards this historic gender gap.
0:35:27 People are coming to the door
0:35:30 and they’re basically saying, I’m voting for her.
0:35:31 I don’t wanna talk about it.
0:35:34 It’s not like in 2016 when everyone was so excited,
0:35:36 like, I’ve got my woman card here.
0:35:39 Like I have a 3D printed Hillary doll
0:35:41 that is in my daughter’s room now.
0:35:42 It’s really cute.
0:35:43 She goes like, that’s mama.
0:35:45 And it’s a blonde and like a blue suit.
0:35:46 So obviously it’s not mama,
0:35:48 but like there’s this excitement
0:35:50 that I still feel about her.
0:35:52 – That’s 3D printed Hillary doll.
0:35:54 – That a stranger sent to me
0:35:56 and I wasn’t even bothered
0:35:58 that he somehow knew my home address
0:36:02 because I literally came to the door
0:36:04 and I was like, should I report this
0:36:06 or just sleep with it forever?
0:36:11 And like, people used to be excited about their vote
0:36:13 in a different way than they are in this election.
0:36:16 Even if you’re enthusiastic about turning the page,
0:36:17 whatever way you’re turning it,
0:36:20 people, I’m sure you guys notice this in your lives.
0:36:24 Like it’s not as fun to talk about anymore over dinner.
0:36:26 You’re just like, it’s happening.
0:36:28 When is this going to be over?
0:36:30 – Soon enough, I hope.
0:36:33 So speaking when it’s over, early voting is kicked in.
0:36:36 Georgia received more than 600,000 votes
0:36:38 in the first days, North Carolina have massive lines
0:36:42 despite of being in some areas
0:36:46 where very hard hit by Hurricane Helene.
0:36:47 What’s your read?
0:36:50 Is this massive, is this tied a wave of early voting
0:36:53 good or bad for Democrats or Republicans?
0:36:57 – So there are two schools of thought on it.
0:37:01 I in general tend to think big turnout is better
0:37:03 for Democrats and also just better for democracy.
0:37:05 I want the most amount of, however it shakes out,
0:37:07 I would be excited if the number of people
0:37:09 that are involved in the democratic process is higher.
0:37:11 And I think that we should all feel that way.
0:37:13 But I also really want to win.
0:37:16 And the reason that I think that it’s better
0:37:19 is except in Georgia and Nevada, I think it is,
0:37:22 it’s been a higher turnout amongst women than amongst men.
0:37:24 And Republicans have been running around,
0:37:26 if you’re very into talking politics,
0:37:30 I’m sure someone has told you that Republicans now
0:37:33 have a higher number of registered voters than Democrats.
0:37:35 We hadn’t seen this trend line in decades.
0:37:38 And it happened, it came out like two weeks ago.
0:37:41 The Gallup data showed it for the first time.
0:37:44 But what they miss with that talking point is,
0:37:47 does your affiliation mean how you’re voting?
0:37:49 Was Cheney still a registered Republican?
0:37:50 – Yep.
0:37:53 – And a lot of these people are.
0:37:55 So I’m not sure it’s indicative of anything like that,
0:37:57 but the high turnout I think is net net good for us.
0:38:00 And apparently the Gen Z turnout is massive.
0:38:03 And I saw a video online today,
0:38:06 definitely, I saw this video of,
0:38:10 there’s kind of this asshole guy walking on interviewing
0:38:13 young women about why they’re voting for Kamala.
0:38:15 And the point was to make fun of them
0:38:17 because they kept talking about abortion
0:38:19 and being able to control their own bodies.
0:38:23 And I saw these Trump supporters being like,
0:38:27 you callous fools, like you think it’s all about,
0:38:29 being able to go out and sleep with whoever
0:38:32 at the sex club and then just go
0:38:34 and get an abortion. – And then order Chinese.
0:38:37 – And then order chicken with scallions,
0:38:38 which was delicious here.
0:38:43 And it’s amazing to see a piece of content
0:38:48 that means such different things to both groups.
0:38:50 So all the Republicans are dunking on it
0:38:53 and all of the Democrats or the left-leaning supporters
0:38:55 or people who just care about reproductive health
0:38:57 are saying it is a completely normal thing
0:39:01 for a 22-year-old woman to worry
0:39:03 that she’s going to have a healthcare emergency
0:39:05 and not be able to get the treatment that she needs.
0:39:12 – Noelle, the election is nigh.
0:39:13 – It sure is.
0:39:15 Can you name all the swing states?
0:39:20 – Oh, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania,
0:39:25 Georgia, and is it Virginia?
0:39:26 – It is not.
0:39:28 It’s North Carolina, but you got the others.
0:39:30 – Oh, I mean, I think it’s arguable.
0:39:31 Let’s just say I’m kind of right.
0:39:32 Let’s give me partial credit.
0:39:35 – Partial credit, it is, and we are doing episodes
0:39:37 about all seven of the real swing states.
0:39:39 – Oh, it sounds like I should listen.
0:39:40 What are we doing?
0:39:41 Like history lessons?
0:39:44 – No, the big issues, abortion, the economy,
0:39:47 election security, all of it.
0:39:50 – Okay, so you’re saying if you listen to,
0:39:54 today explains seven episodes on the seven swing states
0:39:56 between now and the election,
0:39:58 you are going to be ready for whatever comes
0:39:59 on November 5th.
0:40:00 – There you go.
0:40:02 – Today explained wherever you listen,
0:40:04 we drop in the afternoons, Monday to Friday.
0:40:10 – So let’s talk a little bit about the polls.
0:40:12 I’m curious what you make of these.
0:40:15 So far, a new general election polling
0:40:19 shows that Harris is up by four in Georgia,
0:40:22 up by two in Michigan, up by two in Pennsylvania,
0:40:24 which is sort of coming down to be
0:40:25 kind of the most important state.
0:40:26 – Definitely.
0:40:29 He has no path without it, and she needs it too,
0:40:31 but he like really needs it.
0:40:32 – It’s interesting, ’cause, well,
0:40:33 I’ll go through this in a second.
0:40:35 Wisconsin, Harris up three, Nevada,
0:40:38 Thai, North Carolina, Trump up three,
0:40:39 Arizona, Trump up three.
0:40:42 See, I read this poll, and to me it means,
0:40:44 it looks as if the edge is to Harris.
0:40:47 And if you look at all, the majority of,
0:40:49 quote unquote, really thoughtful people I know
0:40:50 are actually quite worried.
0:40:52 It feels like her momentum was arrested
0:40:55 about two weeks ago when it swung back dramatically.
0:40:56 And then if you look at the betting sites,
0:41:00 which I think would be where I would go for information,
0:41:03 but my podcast co-host on Property Markets,
0:41:04 Ed Ellison pointed out that,
0:41:07 keep in mind the people who gamble are young men
0:41:08 who are biased towards Trump.
0:41:10 And then I got an email today from my friend,
0:41:12 Michael Auerbach, saying,
0:41:16 it’s a Democrat in there spending millions on Trump
0:41:19 in hopes that it’ll convince Trumpers to stay home
0:41:20 ’cause they don’t need to show up.
0:41:25 It just is like, there’s all of this crazy kind of people
0:41:29 trying to manipulate in the role it plays.
0:41:31 When I saw these polls, I thought this is wrong
0:41:34 ’cause this feels decidedly Harris to me.
0:41:35 Any thoughts on the polls?
0:41:37 Well, this was part of the change in my mood.
0:41:40 I said I’d been like algorithm miserable
0:41:42 for the last two weeks.
0:41:44 And this morning I was like, we’re back.
0:41:50 I actually, we went to an apple farm on Saturday
0:41:54 for apple picking with our little people.
0:41:58 And I was like, there were Trump flags everywhere,
0:41:59 people out doing their thing.
0:42:02 And we passed by one Kamala Harris sign.
0:42:03 And I actually like fist pumped,
0:42:05 like I’m not a fist pumper.
0:42:08 And my husband goes, it says Kamala Harris is an idiot.
0:42:12 So, and then I remembered we’re like five minutes
0:42:14 from Bedminster, this is Trump country.
0:42:19 But I saw that, which is from a very reputable pollster.
0:42:23 And that felt more in line with the fact that
0:42:26 we know that a majority of Americans
0:42:31 have more aligned policy positions to the Harris campaign.
0:42:33 That doesn’t mean that she’s going to win,
0:42:35 but it means that she’s breaking through
0:42:36 on a lot of levels.
0:42:40 There was an AP poll out that, yeah,
0:42:44 that she is leading on a number of economic issues,
0:42:45 which is a really big deal,
0:42:46 like keeping inflation down,
0:42:48 dealing with the cost of groceries.
0:42:51 And to your point about who’s changing their mind,
0:42:56 I think is that the Emerson poll had 60 to 36 ratio
0:42:59 that people who have decided in the last month
0:43:00 are breaking for Harris.
0:43:02 So if you decided over a month ago,
0:43:05 Trump was winning that by huge margins.
0:43:06 But what she is doing,
0:43:07 and whether that’s just that she’s more
0:43:09 in the national consciousness,
0:43:10 if you’re just seeing her on the view,
0:43:12 whether you like what she said,
0:43:14 or you’re seeing her sit down with Brett Baer,
0:43:16 or you’re seeing her town halls,
0:43:20 that it’s making people feel calmer
0:43:22 about a Harris presidency,
0:43:26 which is what Brett Stevens was arguing in the times today,
0:43:28 where he said finally that he’s going to vote for her.
0:43:30 – The undecided voter has now decided?
0:43:33 – Not until, again, she was up 10 points
0:43:35 with independence in the last Fox poll.
0:43:39 – But the poll we reference as an AP poll,
0:43:41 and it shows Harris and Wall’s favorability
0:43:43 of five and 4% respectively,
0:43:46 whereas Trump and Vance are down 18 and 15%.
0:43:49 So that feels very favorable for Harris,
0:43:51 but I don’t know about you,
0:43:53 but kind of the zeitgeist I’m hearing
0:43:55 from people “in the know” pollsters
0:43:58 is that I’m really, really worried.
0:44:01 The bottom line is it just feels like it’s within.
0:44:03 – Can I ask you if you think the betting markets,
0:44:05 the stuff matters at all?
0:44:07 ‘Cause I know a lot of people that are complete truthers
0:44:09 are that the Wall Street Journal had a big expose
0:44:12 on how Polymarket is being moved.
0:44:14 I mean, your friend has an interesting counter theory,
0:44:16 but they found all of these Trumpers
0:44:18 were the ones that was pushing it,
0:44:21 ’cause now he’s up to 65% odds.
0:44:21 – I think there’s no doubt.
0:44:24 I think there’s more oxygen being taken out of the room
0:44:26 by a, I mean, you think about it,
0:44:28 betting is like the stock market,
0:44:31 and the stock market absorbs millions of points of light,
0:44:33 and it’s seen as kind of the total arbiter.
0:44:36 Whenever I go on a board, I always call the CFO,
0:44:38 ’cause the CFO is the source of truth.
0:44:39 From the market standpoint,
0:44:41 the stock price is the source of truth.
0:44:44 The CEO can talk flowery, but at the end of the day,
0:44:48 millions, the stock attempts to absorb tens of millions
0:44:51 of points of light, and then make a very no-mercy,
0:44:53 emotionalist decision with one singular thing,
0:44:56 like the aliens, the xenomorphs from aliens,
0:44:58 it’s just totally focused on killing.
0:45:01 It has no conscience, it has no morals,
0:45:03 it can’t be bargained with, and stocks are the same way.
0:45:06 They’re just, it’s people who just wanna make money.
0:45:09 And so when you see a betting market,
0:45:13 it says that it’s approximately a 60% or almost two
0:45:15 and three chance that Trump’s gonna win.
0:45:16 I think that’s great for the Trump campaign,
0:45:19 ’cause it says this unemotional arbiter
0:45:22 from people who are just focused on making money
0:45:23 think he’s gonna win.
0:45:25 And I think that creates, I think anything that creates
0:45:28 momentum that this person is likely to win
0:45:29 is good for that person.
0:45:31 Having said that, I have no idea.
0:45:33 By the way, the polls, all the gambling sites
0:45:36 were wrong in 2020.
0:45:38 They also saw–
0:45:39 – Trump winning.
0:45:40 – They also saw Trump winning.
0:45:41 And that goes back to Ed’s thesis,
0:45:44 that young men have a bias towards Trump.
0:45:47 Real quickly, do you think the death of Senwar
0:45:49 has any sort of impact on the election at this point?
0:45:54 – Well, I think it’s yet to be determined
0:45:58 on the actual voting, but it was interesting
0:45:59 to see in the last few days,
0:46:03 stories about her trouble with Arab voters in Michigan,
0:46:06 and her trouble with Jewish voters in Pennsylvania.
0:46:10 And I have a lot of friends, Josh Shapiro-Truthers,
0:46:15 who are watching him handle the Jewish holidays
0:46:19 with huge amounts of passion and inclusivity,
0:46:22 and Grace and him and his wife just seem
0:46:25 like wonderful ambassadors for the religion
0:46:28 and everything that we’re about.
0:46:32 And they’re like, I told you, Tim Walls is great.
0:46:35 These soundbites calling them weird
0:46:38 and saying mind your damn business was all well and good.
0:46:41 But that guy, the Baruch Obama of it all
0:46:43 would have been much better for us.
0:46:46 And time will tell, if we lose,
0:46:48 I’m probably gonna be pretty mad that I thought,
0:46:51 well Walls was a good choice.
0:46:54 But it does seem like there are probably
0:46:58 gonna be young people that potentially set this out
0:47:01 in Michigan, probably most of all,
0:47:04 and that there are going to be some Jews more
0:47:09 in our cohort, kind of overeducated and reading too much
0:47:12 and in their feelings about it,
0:47:17 who feel like they can’t tick the box with her,
0:47:20 but who knows, like last week’s Sinware is dead.
0:47:22 I mean, it was only like three weeks ago
0:47:24 that the beeper stuff started happening.
0:47:28 It feels like this whole thing is going at lightning pace.
0:47:30 So I don’t know what it’ll be like.
0:47:33 Do you think it’s having a real impact?
0:47:36 Well, I failed to see how it’s anything but positive
0:47:37 for the current administration
0:47:39 ’cause a feeling of chaos,
0:47:42 the existing administration pays the price for that.
0:47:45 I think their messaging around Israel has been abysmal
0:47:47 because this is the worst of both worlds.
0:47:49 Biden and Harris, I believe,
0:47:50 have actually been pretty good on Israel.
0:47:52 Whenever anyone complains about them,
0:47:56 I grew up in Los Angeles and went to UCLA.
0:47:57 I was in a Jewish fraternity.
0:47:59 The majority of my close friends from college are Jewish.
0:48:01 They’re all voting for Trump.
0:48:04 They’re just like, no, I have family there.
0:48:06 I want no milk toast bullshit around it.
0:48:07 I don’t want empathy.
0:48:12 I want someone who’s squarely behind Israel full stop.
0:48:14 And right now Trump has done a better job
0:48:15 of communicating that
0:48:18 because where Biden and Harris have really screwed up
0:48:21 is that no world leader’s been better on Israel
0:48:22 than Biden and Harris.
0:48:24 Like there was only one world leader
0:48:26 that immediately deployed two carrier strike forces
0:48:27 to the Mediterranean,
0:48:29 such that if the Iranians had any ideas
0:48:31 about starting a multi-front war,
0:48:35 he said, we got 4,500 incredibly skilled people
0:48:39 and we can deliver the violence of a big nation
0:48:40 and it’s sitting off your shore.
0:48:42 So sit the fuck down.
0:48:47 That was the most important move made outside of Israel.
0:48:49 And Americans, Biden and Harris did it.
0:48:53 But at the same time, all this bullshit wavering,
0:48:56 we’re trying for a truce.
0:48:58 I support them, but I don’t.
0:49:00 It’s like, they’ve handled it terribly
0:49:03 because they don’t get any credit for what they,
0:49:05 everybody’s angry at them.
0:49:06 Jews are angry at them.
0:49:09 Muslim Americans are angry at them.
0:49:12 So my belief was folks, you got to pick a side here
0:49:14 and trying to like thin them.
0:49:16 They just haven’t, they haven’t thread the needle here
0:49:19 and he doesn’t get, he and Vice President Harris
0:49:21 don’t get nearly the credit.
0:49:24 And just saying my husband is Jewish
0:49:28 is not a policy decision in my view.
0:49:30 So I think they’ve just handled the messaging
0:49:33 terribly around this, but I do think his death
0:49:35 can be nothing but positive
0:49:38 for the current administration or at least…
0:49:40 – Well, you would, you’re kind of weeding out.
0:49:44 When you kill a terrorist as big and as bad as Sinwar,
0:49:47 you’re able to weed out the people
0:49:50 that were never gonna be with you anyway.
0:49:53 Right, like that you had no choice of penetrating.
0:49:58 So like I did a show, I did special report on Friday
0:50:00 and we do this thing, winners and losers at the end.
0:50:04 And I had as my loser for the week, terrorists sympathizers.
0:50:09 Like these kids that are out there claiming
0:50:11 that this is about a genocide or whatever it is.
0:50:15 Like if you think in any way that a world without Sinwar
0:50:18 is problematic, there’s something problematic with you.
0:50:21 And I’m not even sure we really want your vote.
0:50:23 No, when we lose by 2000 votes,
0:50:25 I’ll probably take that back and say,
0:50:27 I would have loved to have had your support for that.
0:50:32 But I think it’s definitely a good thing that it happened
0:50:36 and it has put Netanyahu in a different light.
0:50:40 I feel he’s almost moved to being a wartime president
0:50:43 for the first time. – His popularity is surged.
0:50:45 – Yeah, but if he overplays his hand,
0:50:47 I think it was something in one of the strikes,
0:50:51 87 people in Beirut were killed,
0:50:53 innocents who were not terrorists, not involved at all.
0:50:56 You got a headline like that and people say
0:50:58 there has to be a better way to do this.
0:51:00 Now, I know on a historical level,
0:51:05 he’s still running a pinpoint accurate operation,
0:51:06 but that is compelling to people.
0:51:10 You see tiny innocent bodies blown up
0:51:12 and you think, what did they do to you?
0:51:15 – Yeah, we’ve gotten a lot of criticism online.
0:51:17 A lot of people say, you might be raging,
0:51:18 but you’re not moderates.
0:51:22 – Scott loves the comments, he’s in it all the time.
0:51:23 – Everyone’s addicted to something.
0:51:25 I’m addicted to the affirmation of strangers.
0:51:28 It’s pathetic, but I’m working on it.
0:51:31 So we wanted to do endorsements.
0:51:33 And my understanding,
0:51:35 none of this is gonna come as a surprise to anybody,
0:51:36 but my understanding is you’re not allowed
0:51:39 to do an official endorsement, is that correct?
0:51:42 – Everyone knows how I am voting, but I don’t free.
0:51:44 I am happy to talk about why Kamala Harris
0:51:46 will be the best president you’ve ever seen in your life.
0:51:48 But it’s not the same way that you’re gonna do it,
0:51:49 but do your thing.
0:51:50 And then I’ll talk my way through it.
0:51:51 – All right, I’ll go.
0:51:57 So I think a lot about young men, right?
0:51:59 So if you look globally,
0:52:01 the group that’s ascended the fastest is women.
0:52:02 It’s fantastic.
0:52:06 There are more women globally seeking tertiary education
0:52:07 now than men.
0:52:08 That’s a wonderful thing.
0:52:10 In the US, more single women on homes than single men,
0:52:13 three to two college graduates.
0:52:15 Globally, you’ve seen a doubling of the number of women
0:52:17 elected to parliament in the last 30 years.
0:52:21 We’ve never seen an ascent of a demographic globally,
0:52:23 this violent and this wonderful,
0:52:25 and that’s a collective victory for all of us.
0:52:28 And we should do nothing to get in the way of that.
0:52:31 At the same time, the group that has fallen
0:52:34 furthest the fastest in the United States is young men.
0:52:36 Four times as likely to kill themselves,
0:52:37 three times as likely to be addicted,
0:52:39 12 times as likely to be incarcerated.
0:52:42 So you have an entire cohort of young men
0:52:43 that aren’t engaging with relationships,
0:52:45 they’re not engaging with school,
0:52:47 three million able-bodied men under the age of 40
0:52:49 aren’t even seeking employment.
0:52:50 They’ve just given up on employment.
0:52:54 So they’re not engaging with work, school relationships.
0:52:59 And so I think about, and also just very strategically,
0:53:00 I think that young men
0:53:01 are some of the last swing voters left.
0:53:03 We talk about swing states,
0:53:04 it’s not swing states, it’s swing counties,
0:53:07 it’s not really swing counties, it’s swing voters.
0:53:08 And I think young men are still some
0:53:10 of the last available swing voters.
0:53:13 Specifically a lot of young men
0:53:15 are sort of like maybe gonna vote, maybe not.
0:53:18 And also they’re not as Neanderthal knuckles
0:53:21 dragging along the ground as people would think.
0:53:25 Young men actually believe in gender equality.
0:53:27 It’s whether or not they actually turn out.
0:53:30 And if Democrats don’t get a disproportionate number
0:53:31 of young people to vote for them,
0:53:32 they’re gonna lose the election.
0:53:35 So my endorsement is if you will,
0:53:37 through the lens of a young man.
0:53:39 And the way I think about it is,
0:53:42 it’s really good and important to have a code to guide you.
0:53:44 Some people get it from religion,
0:53:45 some people get it from their work,
0:53:47 some people get it from their school,
0:53:49 some people get it by joining the Marines
0:53:50 and adopting that code.
0:53:54 But I think as a young man, you need a code.
0:53:56 And I’ve been thinking a lot about masculinity.
0:53:58 And this is where some people get very uncomfortable.
0:54:01 I think masculinity can be a great code
0:54:04 in an aspirational way for young men.
0:54:05 And that is the following.
0:54:09 I think that a decent proxy for masculinity
0:54:13 is a provider, protector, and procreator.
0:54:14 And so let’s go through each of those
0:54:18 and why I think Harris would be the best candidate.
0:54:23 Provider, you can be good in a country with low growth.
0:54:24 You can be good and Britain right now,
0:54:26 but the fact that the country hasn’t grown in five years
0:54:28 ’cause of terrible economic policies,
0:54:31 it is difficult to be a good provider.
0:54:34 So you want a context where you can have a job,
0:54:36 have good economic growth,
0:54:38 and quite frankly, do well and be a provider.
0:54:40 And I think every man should start from the viewpoint
0:54:44 of I’m gonna take economic responsibility for my household.
0:54:47 And sometimes that means getting out of the way
0:54:49 of your partner who’s better at that money thing
0:54:51 than you are and being more supportive.
0:54:52 As I like to think I was,
0:54:54 as my partner was working in Goldman Sachs
0:54:57 and making a lot more money than I was at the time.
0:55:00 But I think it’s a good standpoint to start from.
0:55:02 I’m going to be an economic provider here.
0:55:04 And the reality is three quarters of women
0:55:07 say economic viability is really important in a mate.
0:55:08 It’s only one quarter for men.
0:55:11 So if you want to be taken seriously in our economy
0:55:12 and I’m not to our nation,
0:55:13 I’m not talking about what should be,
0:55:14 I’m talking about what is.
0:55:18 Young men need to aspire to be good providers.
0:55:20 You’re gonna have an easier time as a young man
0:55:24 being a provider, I believe in an economic environment
0:55:26 based on the Harris plan.
0:55:29 We have so far, if you think it’s most likely
0:55:32 gonna be a continuation of the current policies,
0:55:35 we have the lowest inflation of any G7 country
0:55:36 while having the strongest growth.
0:55:38 We are at full employment.
0:55:41 We have the lowest unemployment since 1968.
0:55:45 We have had 71 record highs in the market.
0:55:48 We have added more shareholder value
0:55:51 just with AI in this nation in the last 18 months
0:55:53 in the entire global auto industry
0:55:55 since the inception of the auto industry.
0:55:56 The fact that these algorithms
0:55:58 are trying to convince young people
0:55:59 that this economy is awful,
0:56:02 there are 190 sovereign nations in the world.
0:56:07 189 would trade places with us.
0:56:10 China has lost $3 trillion in market capitalization
0:56:12 over the last three years.
0:56:15 We’ve gained $5 trillion in the last seven.
0:56:16 This economy is on fire.
0:56:19 Now, similar to the future, it’s here, prosperity is here.
0:56:21 It’s just not evenly distributed.
0:56:22 A lot of people are struggling,
0:56:25 but unfortunately there’s this dynamic
0:56:27 where when your salary goes up 10%,
0:56:28 you think it’s your grid and character,
0:56:30 but when diapers go up 4%,
0:56:32 you blame the Harrison Biden administration.
0:56:35 This economy will be much stronger.
0:56:37 Your ability to be a good provider
0:56:42 is much more likely with Harris’s economic plan.
0:56:45 Protection should be the default setting for people,
0:56:46 and I think Democrats,
0:56:49 specifically Vice President Wallace is a great job.
0:56:52 And if we want to have more young people
0:56:55 pairing up, having sex,
0:56:56 finding relationships,
0:57:00 and having deep and meaningful families,
0:57:02 we need to encourage people
0:57:05 to connect both emotionally, mentally, and physically,
0:57:09 and women are gonna stop for good reason
0:57:11 if they maintain this type of risk,
0:57:14 if we continue down this perverted track
0:57:16 of taking bodily autonomy away from women.
0:57:19 In sum, in sum,
0:57:22 I can guarantee all young men listening to this podcast
0:57:25 that you porn is bested by your porn.
0:57:30 And my advice to you is to get out,
0:57:31 get your shit together,
0:57:33 make yourself more attracted to women,
0:57:35 more attractive to women,
0:57:37 pursue sex,
0:57:39 establish relationships,
0:57:40 and be a protector and a provider.
0:57:42 And I think all of those things
0:57:45 around a code for masculinity
0:57:48 are much better served in a Harris administration
0:57:52 than this weird, unhealthy version of the manosphere
0:57:55 that is being projected on the right.
0:57:59 So with that, I am endorsing Vice President Harris
0:58:01 and Governor Walls for President.
0:58:04 (audience applauding)
0:58:11 All right, folks, that’s it for tonight.
0:58:12 Thank you for joining us tonight.
0:58:15 And special thanks to Maxwell for hosting us.
0:58:17 Thanks, big shout out to Maxwell,
0:58:19 our producers are Caroline Chagrin and David Toledo,
0:58:22 our technical director is Drew Burroughs.
0:58:23 Please follow Raging Moderates
0:58:25 wherever you get your podcasts.
0:58:26 That’s right, Raging Moderates
0:58:28 has its very own feed.
0:58:31 One thrill, drinks on Jessica.
0:58:33 Thank you for your time.
0:58:36 (audience applauding)
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0:02:12 Today’s number? $250,000. That’s the base salary for a quantitative research internship at Jane Street Capital.
0:02:19 Choose two yet. I was a virgin at 19 and my father offered to buy me an escort, and I thought, “What is a shitty car from Ford gonna do for me?”
0:02:34 Ed, that has nothing to do with the number, but I just like the joke.
0:02:35 I don’t get it.
0:02:38 Ask your parents if Ford Escort was a shitty car in the ’80s.
0:02:40 Okay, got it, got it, got it.
0:02:47 Yeah, it was either that one or last night I had a prostitute, and on the way out the door, I said to him, “It was a business doing pleasure with you.”
0:02:52 You like that one? You get the simple stuff.
0:02:53 I’m a simple man.
0:02:54 Ed, what’s going on?
0:03:03 Not much, Scott. That number is really incredible to me, and I feel like we see these kinds of numbers a lot, and I’m always sort of suspicious of them.
0:03:20 But I will say, I have a friend who works at Jane Street, which is the quant trading firm that Sam Bankman Freed worked at, and I can vouch this individual who has worked at the company out of college for maybe two years is gonna make a million dollars this year.
0:03:21 Wow.
0:03:26 Just unbelievable the amount of money this company is printing.
0:03:32 So as someone who worked in investment banking and all my friends were jealous of me out of school, I told you I wanted to invest in banking, right?
0:03:39 My roommate, Gary Lushko, desperately wanted to be an investment banker, and I was competitive with Gary, and I thought, “Well, if he wants it, I’m gonna get it.”
0:03:42 I had no idea what investment banking was, but I thought, “I’ve gotta get it.”
0:03:44 I think that’s every investment banker, by the way.
0:03:54 Pretty much. I had no idea what it meant. I literally had no idea what it meant, and I interviewed, and as you can imagine, I’m a monster interviewer, and also lied about my grades.
0:04:06 Not proud of that, but that’s why I probably can’t run for Senate. Dad and I just don’t have the hair for it, but I got to jump in Morgan Stanley, and I made really good money, and it was a great line in bars that I worked at Morgan Stanley Investment Banking.
0:04:08 It’s a fucking awful job.
0:04:15 So the reason why these folks make so much money is because they generate a lot of economic value, but too, it’s just…
0:04:28 Most jobs are one of two things. They’re either boring and low stress, a night watchman, or they’re just pretty rote but boring, or they’re very interesting, but they have a decent amount of pressure to keep you up on your toes.
0:04:35 Investment banking was this incredible combination of a radically boring material with a ton of pressure placed on it.
0:04:55 It was just, and only that, as bad as the work was, the people were worse. Everybody hated being there, but couldn’t leave because they were going to have to take a 60% cut in salary to go do anything else, but this is my long-winded way of saying, “Stop your bitching. You work for a podcasting company. You get free lunch.”
0:05:00 That’s not true. We don’t get no free lunch at Prodigy Media, but maybe we should start that.
0:05:08 We’re talking about even at some point giving you a salary and maybe health insurance, and I think your friend at Jane Street is jealous of Ed Elson.
0:05:09 That’s true.
0:05:18 I’ve seen the fans that come up to me like, “Ed, let’s take a selfie. Oh, you’re British. Oh, you look like Scott’s younger son.” Oh, my God. Jesus Christ.
0:05:19 Oh, God.
0:05:25 Yeah, we have free coffee at Prodigy Media too. I don’t know if Jane Street offers that. It’s pretty good. Pretty good.
0:05:27 Really free coffee at the co-working place you’re at?
0:05:28 That’s right.
0:05:39 I’ve never been to the co-working space because that’s the kind of boss I am, but I’m convinced to you guys, whatever co-working space in Brooklyn we’re at, it has the hottest guys because this firm is run by young single women.
0:05:45 And I’m pretty sure there’s a bunch of guys roaming around with dogs and shit like that who are very available and very single.
0:05:54 Yeah, I think you pretty much nailed it. And we love it. And free coffee and free bananas. So, you know, screw Jane Street.
0:05:54 There you go.
0:05:55 Should we get to it?
0:05:56 Go ahead.
0:06:09 Before we get started, just a quick reminder that ProfGMarkets has its own dedicated feed now. So type in ProfGMarkets wherever you get your podcasts, hit follow, and you’ll be getting two episodes, not one, two episodes of markets every week.
0:06:12 And now let’s start with our weekly review of market vitals.
0:06:27 The S&P 500 hit a new record high, the dollar climbed, Bitcoin rose, and the yield on tenure treasuries jumped. Shifting to the headlines.
0:06:35 Americans can now bet on the presidential election after a federal appeals court cleared the way for prediction market Kalshi to list election contracts.
0:06:41 The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed an appeal, but the court won’t make a decision until after the election.
0:06:52 Third quarter earnings season continued with Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs all beating analyst expectations that was in large part due to gains in their investment banking divisions.
0:06:57 The banks have benefited from increased dealmaking as a result of the Fed’s interest rate cut.
0:07:04 Chipmaker ASML stock fell 16% after the company cut its 2025 sales guidance.
0:07:10 That report caused a sell off in the global chip market, resulting in a $420 billion loss in value.
0:07:16 And finally, Amazon and Google have announced plans to invest in nuclear energy to fuel their data centers.
0:07:24 They’re focused on developing small modular reactors, which experts say may be cheaper than the large reactors like Three Mile Island.
0:07:32 Scott, your thoughts starting with this new ruling from the courts that allows Americans to bet on the presidential election.
0:07:37 We discussed this briefly in the past, but now it is confirmed you can trade on this election.
0:07:40 I don’t see how you could not let people do this.
0:07:47 I mean, if you’re going to allow them to bet on a college football game, I’m not sure why they shouldn’t be allowed to bet on a presidential race.
0:07:51 What was interesting is that Kalshi shows Trump at 57%.
0:07:55 And 20 million has been placed on this bet as of Thursday morning.
0:07:58 We shouldn’t necessarily take this at face value.
0:08:05 The betting market got the 2022 election wrong and other polls outside of the betting market showing even show a more even match up here.
0:08:15 I’m worried about this because there is evidence showing that states that legalize gambling immediately see an uptick in bankruptcies.
0:08:19 And also, I mean, if you think about the stock market, it’s become a giant.
0:08:25 I don’t say casino, but it’s there’s $3 trillion a year in transactions or trades.
0:08:32 And the stock market is supposed to be a source of financing for companies and about 300 billion of that is IPOs and secondary.
0:08:42 So 90% of trades in the markets are one person betting against another saying, I know more than you, I think it’s going to go down or I think it’s going to go up.
0:08:45 That is a form of gambling.
0:08:46 So I don’t, I don’t like this.
0:08:50 I don’t like the gamification of everything, but I don’t see one, how you stop it.
0:08:55 And two, I don’t see why you shouldn’t be able to bet on the presidential race.
0:09:05 One last thing, the thing I find fascinating and I think is the best indicator or the most interesting indicator of the likely outcome of the election is just Donald Trump media stock.
0:09:18 And that is after the debate with Biden, when it thought like, okay, we have an old man who is in serious cognitive decline and he’s going to get his ass kicked by Trump, Trump media was about 45 or 50 bucks a share.
0:09:26 After the debate with Vice President Harris, where he now looked like the old feeble man and she kind of destroyed him, the stock went down to 12.
0:09:28 I find in some ways it’s a pure litmus test.
0:09:36 And right now with the stock at 30 bucks, I think the market at least is saying they’re giving the edge to Trump.
0:09:38 What are your thoughts on Kalshi?
0:09:45 So a lot there and side note, I will be interviewing the CEO and founder of Kalshi on first time founders.
0:09:54 So I’ll be asking all of these questions will be interesting to get us take on your point that the markets are pricing in a Trump victory.
0:09:56 So you’re exactly right on Kalshi.
0:10:14 His odds of winning are 57% and on these other betting markets that, you know, not based in the US and poly market, for example, his odds of winning are 62% and that’s way higher than his odds in the traditional polls where he’s polling at around 47%.
0:10:24 And a lot of people are saying to your point that the betting markets are more accurate because unlike polls, there’s actual money on the line.
0:10:31 You’re more likely to have a more informed take because, you know, you’re at risk of losing something.
0:10:38 I would like to propose an alternative view so women make up 50% of the population.
0:10:46 But I think one thing to remember is that the vast majority of people who are placing bets on these platforms are men.
0:10:53 And these markets are very interesting because it’s sort of a mix of investing sort of trading, but also gambling.
0:10:58 And the reality is that in the gambling world, 64% of gamblers are men.
0:11:02 And so I sort of look at what’s happening here.
0:11:14 And regardless of there being money on the line, the reality in my view is that biases do have an effect on markets and the biases at play here in this election are actually very simple.
0:11:20 Kamala’s got a 13 point lead among women and she’s lagging by eight points among men.
0:11:30 And so to me, this is more of a reflection, not of the true electoral picture, but of just how much gender is likely influencing this race.
0:11:42 And I think when it’s all said and done, we will look back at the election and we will all kind of nod our heads and reluctantly recognize that most of this came down to one thing, which is, are you a man or are you a woman?
0:11:49 Well, what if you’re non-binary, you racist bitch, Jesus Christ, no wonder you ended up at a low paying podcast job.
0:11:50 Anyways, go ahead.
0:11:52 That’s that’s my rap.
0:11:54 And I’d like to get your reaction.
0:12:02 I know there will be a lot of conservatives who will call me an idiot for saying that these markets are biased towards men.
0:12:12 But I just, I think it’s a pretty reasonable assumption that if the majority of the people placing wages are men, I think they’re going to have a built in bias, think Trump’s going to win.
0:12:15 The market reflects everything, including our biases.
0:12:26 What I don’t get, though, is that, for example, one of the bets on Kalshi, MIT’s president leaving this year 5% chance or put another way 20 to one.
0:12:38 So if I’m the president of MIT, maybe I scraped together a half a million bucks bet on me against, you know, take the over on that 20 to one that I’ll leave.
0:12:44 And then I announced I’m retiring and I collect my 10 million bucks and I peace out to Tulum.
0:12:45 I’d like to live in Tulum.
0:12:46 I would teach yoga.
0:12:48 People would love me.
0:12:55 I would just be that old guy roaming up and down the beach, selling ceramic monkeys and offering yoga classes.
0:12:56 Exactly.
0:12:58 That’s, that’s, that’s how I see it.
0:13:03 But what the, it just, it feels like it’s just right for some form of insider trading now.
0:13:13 Well, this is, I think that’s the other point here is also what is stopping Elon Musk from taking $20 million and, and, and betting on Trump and tilting the odds.
0:13:28 I mean, markets are subject to manipulation and we see it all the time, which is why I just a little bit hesitant and critical of the viewpoint that these prediction markets offer a clearer view of what’s actually going to happen.
0:13:32 And I think we’re forgetting that actually markets are a little bit flawed.
0:13:35 They might draw out the wisdom of crowds, but how wise is the crowd?
0:13:37 This is the reason I don’t think you want to do this.
0:13:43 And that is my friend, Todd Benson, used to come to my class in business school and he would say the following.
0:13:52 He’d say, all right, does anyone believe they can eat a slice of bread within 30 seconds and inevitably much people put their hands up.
0:14:00 And it ends up that when you try and chew a piece of bread fast, you know, it turns into its more natural form of dough and there’s just no way to eat it within 30 seconds.
0:14:01 And he said, like, really?
0:14:02 I think I could do it.
0:14:03 Well, there you go.
0:14:05 There you go.
0:14:13 So he, but his point was you should never enter into a bed with people who probably have more information than you.
0:14:21 And it strikes me that whenever you put a bed in here, that there’s a decent amount of money in here that has more information than you.
0:14:26 And it’s like that saying, if you don’t know who the dumbest person in the room is, that means it’s you.
0:14:34 This feels like anytime you go in here without some sort of insider information, you’re likely on the wrong side of the trade.
0:14:35 100%.
0:14:37 Let’s move on to these bank earnings.
0:14:38 Any thoughts?
0:14:43 It’s sort of a continuation of the bank earnings we saw last week.
0:14:46 We’re seeing deal making coming back.
0:14:49 Goldman’s investment banking revenue rose 20%.
0:14:50 Citigroups rose 30%.
0:14:52 Morgan Stanley’s rose 50%.
0:14:59 It appears that M&A has returned any thoughts or reflections on the end of the bank earnings.
0:15:02 Well, it’s nice to have a franchise with different businesses.
0:15:09 The wealth management business is a less volatile, kind of slow growing, nice business in the market side because it’s more predictable, consistent revenue.
0:15:14 At the same time, they have these franchises in trading and in investment banking.
0:15:22 And that gives them a lot of diversification because for the last several years, investment banking has just been the worst, it’s been the dog of these companies.
0:15:24 There’s not a lot of deal flow.
0:15:25 There’s a lot of antitrust scrutiny.
0:15:27 Companies are afraid to make big acquisitions.
0:15:31 So kind of the big monster deals with huge fees.
0:15:33 They’ve been pretty much nonexistent.
0:15:35 And now it appears that some of those deals are back.
0:15:50 The thing that is inspiring those deals is that interest rates coming down gives private equity players and acquires more confidence to go out and borrow money at lower rates to finance acquisitions, which has kind of kicked up acquisition activity.
0:15:54 But this is why it’s nice to have a diversified franchise.
0:15:54 Any thoughts?
0:15:55 I think you nailed it.
0:15:59 And I think it’s going to be nice to be an investment banker again.
0:16:02 I think we’re going to start seeing some big numbers on those bonuses.
0:16:03 It’s just a good time to be a banker.
0:16:16 Your thoughts on the ASML report, this chipmaker in the Netherlands stock dropped 16% and caused a wider route in the chip market.
0:16:17 Quite remarkable.
0:16:27 When I saw this, I thought back to the Nvidia earnings that we saw a month ago, where Nvidia had a decent-ish quarter.
0:16:29 It had a great quarter.
0:16:34 Revenue doubled, it beat on the top line, it beat on the bottom line.
0:16:42 But they pointed out that growth was slightly softening and the stock dropped around six or seven percent.
0:16:44 The market was very upset about it.
0:16:47 I’m seeing a similar thing here.
0:16:52 And it reminds me also of what happens with tsunamis.
0:16:59 So one of the first signals that a tsunami is coming is that the water will start to recede away from the shore and it forms what is called a trough.
0:17:04 And that happens long before the actual tsunami comes and hits.
0:17:07 And to me, this is the trough.
0:17:14 Because aside from the guidance, which was not great, the earnings were actually not that bad.
0:17:17 Revenue grew to more than $8 billion, which was a beat.
0:17:20 The net income grew to more than $2 billion, which was a beat.
0:17:33 But because of this very simple and not that dramatic cut on guidance, Wall Street internalized that and they thought, hold on, maybe this AI thing isn’t going to work out the way we hoped.
0:17:39 And what should have been a slightly disappointing quarter was instead a disaster.
0:17:42 The company lost a fifth of its value.
0:17:46 It caused every other chip stock to slip as well.
0:17:53 AMD fell five percent, Broadcom fell around five percent, ARM fell around seven percent, Nvidia fell around five percent.
0:17:54 It recovered, but initially it fell.
0:18:00 And in total, almost half a trillion dollars in market value was just erased from the chip market.
0:18:07 And it was all because this chip maker, as you say, which was in the same neighborhood as these other chip makers from the Netherlands cut its guidance.
0:18:21 And so the question that I think I’m asking again, which we asked when we saw Nvidia’s earnings is what is going to happen when one of the big chip companies has a bad quarter?
0:18:27 What is going to happen when Nvidia comes out and says, hey, growth is looking flat, possibly down?
0:18:46 Because based on this reaction to what is essentially a cough at ASML and what was essentially a hiccup at Nvidia, I think what we should expect should that bad quarter occur is basically a market meltdown in the tech sector.
0:18:53 So that’s why I call this a trough, not because of the earnings themselves, but because of the market’s reaction to these earnings.
0:19:03 The market had a panic attack, and that to me is the indication that our expectations for AI are too high, but more importantly, very, very unstable.
0:19:07 We see one little piece of news and then we start selling like crazy.
0:19:09 That to me is a very unstable market.
0:19:14 Yeah, I would just start saying that we could have hail the size of tomato soup cans.
0:19:17 I think that’s a better metaphor.
0:19:19 Look, I don’t, I think you’re right.
0:19:31 I think the expectations here are, they expect these companies to kind of, I mean, you pointed this out a few months ago, that if you just meet expectations, you’re not meeting expectations.
0:19:37 You’re supposed to, the expectation is that you’re going to beat expectations.
0:19:48 Yeah, and it’s just remarkable to me how willing the market is to be optimistic about AI, but also how willing they are to be pessimistic about AI.
0:19:50 But we’ll see and we’ll keep monitoring it.
0:19:54 Let’s just wrap up here with this Amazon and Google headline.
0:19:57 They are both investing in nuclear.
0:20:00 As we discussed a few weeks ago, Microsoft is investing in nuclear as well.
0:20:03 They’re basically rebuilding Three Mile Island.
0:20:07 You predicted the nuclear would make a massive comeback a few years ago.
0:20:13 I think this is sort of the evidence or the final proof or final confirmation that we need.
0:20:14 Nuclear is back.
0:20:15 It’s not coming back.
0:20:17 It is officially back.
0:20:19 Any reactions to this headline?
0:20:25 So, you know, every year we do this prediction stack and we do it in November.
0:20:26 Oh, shit, it’s coming up.
0:20:28 We’ll start hallucinating or taking more edibles.
0:20:33 But the, every year we pick a technology of the year.
0:20:36 2022, we said it was AI, 2023, we said it was GLP-1 drugs.
0:20:40 My technology for 2024 is going to be nuclear.
0:20:45 And these companies have correctly identified they’ve gone up and down the supply chain.
0:20:49 And I think this is a useful exercise for any startup or any company that’s kind of,
0:20:52 I’m not even a startup, a company that’s got some scale.
0:20:55 What is the friction point in our business?
0:21:00 And it’s clear that some of the deepest pocketed companies in the world have decided
0:21:01 and zeroed in on the friction point.
0:21:05 And the friction point for them is energy production.
0:21:10 And that is they’re going to need so much incremental power that their energy needs
0:21:11 are going to explode.
0:21:15 And they also think, okay, well, I’m going to need more energy.
0:21:17 I don’t want to be known as a climate terrorist.
0:21:18 I pretend to give a damn.
0:21:21 I have all these woke people that do walkouts during lunch.
0:21:26 So I can’t just, you know, massively up liquid natural gas,
0:21:29 although LNG isn’t as bad as traditional fossil fuels.
0:21:33 And all roads kind of lead to one place in my mind.
0:21:38 And that is nuclear, which is probably the worst managed brand of the last 30 years.
0:21:41 And just some facts about nuclear.
0:21:42 We talked about its reliability.
0:21:44 The waste can actually be recycled.
0:21:46 Nuclear waste can be reprocessed and recycled.
0:21:49 If all nuclear waste from the past 50 years in the US was recycled,
0:21:53 it could power the US for, get this out, 93 years.
0:21:55 I love this.
0:21:59 And there’s some incredibly, not only the deepest pockets investing here,
0:22:01 but the deepest minds.
0:22:02 Bill Gates is all in on nuclear.
0:22:06 Sam Altman is going big on nuclear startups.
0:22:09 So word is out on nuclear.
0:22:14 Siemens, GE, Vernova and Mitsubishi, who make the steam turbines and generators
0:22:17 for required for nuclear power generation.
0:22:23 Their stocks are up 92%, 109%, and 176% year to date, respectively.
0:22:26 So it’s too bad we didn’t make this prediction.
0:22:30 It’s too bad I didn’t actually invest against this prediction two or three years ago.
0:22:37 But the biggest, I think, transfer or reallocation of or reshaping
0:22:42 of energy production in the US is going to be inspired by the need
0:22:46 for massive incremental energy due to the AI boom.
0:22:48 So AI is going to have a lot of externalities.
0:22:52 But one of the first ones, or knock on effects, but one of the first ones is
0:22:58 that when the history of this decade is written, they will say that AI basically
0:23:02 reignited a boom in nuclear or a renaissance in nuclear.
0:23:08 We’ll be right back with a look at a new podcasting strategy from Elliot Management.
0:23:11 And if you’re enjoying the show so far, make sure you’re following
0:23:15 ProfG Markets to get two episodes from me and Scott every week.
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0:26:43 We’re back with Prodigy Markets.
0:26:49 Elliott Investment Management launched a podcast to advance its attack on Southwest Airlines.
0:26:54 As we discussed back in June, Elliott took an 11% activist stake in the airline
0:26:57 and called for the CEO and chairman to step down.
0:27:02 Last week, the firm requested a special meeting for shareholders to vote on its slate
0:27:08 of eight board candidates in December, and then it dropped its first podcast episode.
0:27:13 The Stronger Southwest podcast will feature a conversation with one candidate per episode
0:27:19 in the weeks leading up to the vote, aiming to introduce them directly to shareholders.
0:27:25 So, Scott, this is the first time we’re seeing a podcast used as a weapon in a boardroom battle.
0:27:29 What do you make of Elliott’s strategy here getting into podcasting?
0:27:31 I think it’s really smart.
0:27:33 It’s a chance for them.
0:27:38 I mean, traditionally, what they do is they have comms people who try and reach out to CNBC
0:27:43 and Stephanie Rule and Barron’s and Wall Street Journal and try and frame the issue
0:27:46 and say, “These are our candidates who are so strong.”
0:27:50 And this is a chance for them to take their story directly to the end consumer.
0:27:53 Now, I don’t know if this is going to make great listening,
0:27:59 but if you’re an investor, if you work at Southwest, if you’re an IR firm,
0:28:02 I mean, there is an audience here that wants to listen to this.
0:28:04 I remember I was an activist investor in the odds,
0:28:08 and I was thought if I did another activist play, I would do a presentation.
0:28:12 I’d have Katherine Dillon and her team bring the data to life.
0:28:13 I’d make some jokes.
0:28:15 I’d film something and I’d put it on YouTube.
0:28:19 Instead of press releases and doing interviews and going to ISS,
0:28:21 I would just go straight direct to consumer.
0:28:26 And if you think about it, the dispersion of content straight to the end consumer
0:28:28 has been arguably has reshaped media, right?
0:28:32 It used to be that cable companies spent billions of dollars on fiber optic cable
0:28:35 and had regulatory capture and you had to go through them.
0:28:40 And all these guys, creatives, shareholders, people owned these cable companies
0:28:43 took a huge, huge vig.
0:28:47 And now with net neutrality, everybody has access to homes through the internet
0:28:49 for basically free.
0:28:52 And all you need now is a phone to create your own content
0:28:54 and there’s platforms to go direct to consumer.
0:28:57 And these guys are saying, “All right, we’re going to go direct to the end consumer.
0:29:01 That is potential investors or potential media with podcasts also.”
0:29:03 And I’ve said this before.
0:29:07 Every election seems to have kind of a medium that it elevates.
0:29:13 Kennedy and TV, FDR and radio, Trump and Twitter, Obama and Google.
0:29:16 I think this is the election of podcasts.
0:29:21 And what struck me is that Vice President Harris went on Fox last night.
0:29:24 And by the way, I think that’s why Donald Trump Media stock is down.
0:29:26 I think she actually did fairly well.
0:29:29 But I mean, there’s just some crazy stats.
0:29:34 If Vice President Harris were to go on Joe Rogan, which I believe she’s going to do,
0:29:38 she would reach roughly five times more people than she did on Fox Prime Time.
0:29:41 So she could go on Fox Prime Time every night for a week,
0:29:45 just to catch up to where the exposure she would get if she goes on Joe Rogan.
0:29:49 And this is the two most kind of seminal media moments for the candidates.
0:29:51 In my view, we’re Trump on Alex Schultz.
0:29:52 Andrew Schultz.
0:29:53 Oh, it’s Andrew Schultz. Excuse me.
0:29:54 Yeah.
0:29:57 He said on Twitter, I was spreading misinformation about Joe Rogan.
0:30:01 When I said Joe Rogan was spreading misinformation about vaccines.
0:30:03 So I hate him. I hate him.
0:30:06 Actually, he did a great job. I thought it was a great interview.
0:30:10 And then when Vice President Harris went on Caller Daddy.
0:30:12 So it highlights a couple trends.
0:30:16 One, you have guys going direct to consumer, you have these things.
0:30:17 We want to cut out the middleman.
0:30:19 We’re sick of kissing the ass.
0:30:23 There’s some assignment producer or some reporter making, you know,
0:30:27 they went to Columbia Journalism School and doesn’t understand our business.
0:30:31 We’re going to go direct to consumer and also just the medium.
0:30:35 The medium is just playing a more and more important role in our society.
0:30:36 What are your thoughts on?
0:30:39 I’m surprised that we’re not seeing more of this is what I would say.
0:30:41 And I think people are sort of catching on.
0:30:47 But as you say, going direct to consumer, it’s really not that big of an innovation.
0:30:52 I mean, one thing I like that Daniel Eck of Spotify has been doing
0:30:57 is he’s been posting his quarterly earnings updates directly on Instagram
0:30:58 and just talking about it.
0:31:02 And it’s a very simple thing to just go where the people are,
0:31:08 go where the audience is and deliver it to them in the way that they consume
0:31:10 all the rest of their content.
0:31:14 So we are seeing the tide begin to turn here.
0:31:19 And it is interesting seeing these very sort of institutional older firms
0:31:24 deciding, OK, it’s time to sort of meet the people where they actually are.
0:31:28 And just one interesting headline that happened that I saw this week.
0:31:31 There is a podcaster named Harry Stebbings.
0:31:35 He started a venture capital podcast called 20 Minute VC.
0:31:38 He’s been doing it for about 10 years.
0:31:39 He’s 28 years old.
0:31:42 He’s got a relatively popular podcast.
0:31:43 He’s from London.
0:31:47 He just raised a $400 million venture fund this week.
0:31:51 And that makes it one of the largest venture funds in Europe.
0:31:58 And he built it off of the back of a relatively sizeable media presence.
0:32:02 Not huge, but, you know, big enough.
0:32:05 And he’s taking over the venture capital industry.
0:32:06 He’s backed by Josh Kushner.
0:32:10 He’s backed by MIT, several other tech founders.
0:32:13 So it’s very interesting to see podcasts have this influence,
0:32:17 not just as a form of entertainment and news and insight,
0:32:22 but as an actual vehicle for fundraising and for capital allocation.
0:32:26 I guess the question that I would pose to you is,
0:32:28 where else do you see this playing out?
0:32:35 Where could we see podcasts and new media having an impact in the financial markets?
0:32:37 Well, we see it personally.
0:32:38 I get deal flow.
0:32:41 I get access to investments because of this podcast.
0:32:46 If we picked a nuclear company and start talking about it and say we love this company
0:32:50 and it was a private company and said, we want to invest.
0:32:53 We’re not journalists who are allowed to invest.
0:32:57 There’s, I would bet a one in three to one in five chance we’d hear from that company
0:33:01 because they want to give us invested interest in talking about it.
0:33:04 And I think that’s okay as long as you disclose the investment.
0:33:05 I love open AI.
0:33:06 There you go.
0:33:09 We’re huge fans of open AI.
0:33:15 Sam, Sam, but look, we used to be in a fossil fuels based economy.
0:33:17 Now we’re in an attention based economy.
0:33:22 And it’s essentially power consumption, emissions of rage and polarization instead of carbon.
0:33:28 Unless you’re shitty at what you do, you can monetize attention.
0:33:35 So podcasts, which are each day capturing more and more of Americans attention are going to be able to monetize it.
0:33:37 One way is through advertising.
0:33:40 Another way is through subscription, but there’s just not getting around it.
0:33:45 A company like Elliott might be able to win proxy fights and then attract more AUM.
0:33:48 You mentioned someone who’s starting a fund.
0:33:51 People with influence get, perhaps get access to deals.
0:33:55 They otherwise might not have access to yours truly.
0:34:00 So yeah, this, look, if you can capture attention, you can monetize it.
0:34:02 There’s a bunch of different ways to monetize it.
0:34:06 I also think it would be interesting to bring up this theme that we were looking at a couple of years ago,
0:34:11 which was inspired by this research report from CB Insights.
0:34:19 And what this report recognized that there was this very interesting trend where many traditional SaaS companies,
0:34:28 especially finance companies were acquiring small media companies and then folding those media operations into the, into the larger company.
0:34:36 So for example, JP Morgan, a couple of years ago, acquired the infatuation, which is basically a food review website.
0:34:40 HubSpot acquired the hustle, which had a newsletter and a podcast.
0:34:44 Robinhood acquired Market Snacks, which was a financial news company.
0:34:54 And the thesis that CB Insights and this guy, Nan Sunwell, who I’m a big fan of, put forward is that the companies are doing this because of this idea of LTV to CAC arbitrage.
0:34:56 Now, what is LTV and what is CAC?
0:34:59 LTV stands for lifetime value.
0:35:04 So it’s basically how long is the customer expected to remain a customer?
0:35:07 And CAC is customer acquisition cost.
0:35:10 How much does it cost to actually acquire the customer?
0:35:17 Now, the arbitrage that they recognized is that in media, LTV is very, very low.
0:35:20 People switch from media properties to media properties.
0:35:22 But in SaaS, it’s very, very high.
0:35:26 You sign up for a SaaS product and then you’re sort of locked in.
0:35:30 Conversely, in SaaS, CAC is very expensive.
0:35:32 It’s very expensive to acquire a new customer.
0:35:34 But in media, it’s very cheap.
0:35:42 So the idea is that by buying a media company, you are buying an audience, locking that audience into your product for a very long time.
0:35:47 And if you get it on the cheap, then you’re also getting it for a very low price.
0:35:50 In addition, the demographics are really appealing.
0:35:53 We just did the demographics for Pivot and PopG.
0:35:57 We’re about 70% or 80% male.
0:36:01 We’re young and our average household income is about 150 grand.
0:36:08 So if you can reach young, wealthy men, that is kind of the great white rhino for advertisers.
0:36:13 They are very hard to find because they don’t watch television.
0:36:17 As a matter of fact, I’m going on Chris Cuomo tonight on News Nation.
0:36:21 And the only reason I’m going on is because I personally like Chris.
0:36:24 I’ve been asked to go on CNN, MSNBC.
0:36:31 I’m just like being on fucking television for six minutes to reach 80,000 viewers.
0:36:34 No, it’s just not worth it.
0:36:39 It’s not worth me hauling up to somewhere in midtown and having a producer go,
0:36:44 “Okay, make a quick twist of point on issues we’ve been talking about all day that no one has anything else new to say.”
0:36:45 Is that what they say?
0:36:46 Is that what happens?
0:36:47 They sort of coach you through what to say?
0:36:50 They don’t coach you, but it’s pretty obvious what they want.
0:36:56 They want you to come up with something new on something they’ve been banging the shit out of all day for the last 24 hours,
0:37:01 trying to come up with a new frame, say it crisply, hopefully some insight,
0:37:06 and then stop talking because we need to break to sell more opioid-induced constipation medication.
0:37:09 And I’m like, “What the fuck am I doing here?”
0:37:16 And so I literally don’t go on TV anymore, and I love to see daddy on TV.
0:37:21 I love it. I come home and I turn on the TV and I see myself and my nipples get hard.
0:37:23 I had my nipples get hard.
0:37:25 That’s an image.
0:37:29 Anyways, I say yes to podcasts pretty easily.
0:37:30 It’s because you can look in.
0:37:33 But TV, Jesus Christ, empty calories.
0:37:37 Do you know the average age of an MSNBC viewer?
0:37:38 Let me guess.
0:37:39 Average.
0:37:40 58.
0:37:42 70.
0:37:44 58.
0:37:47 58 is like MTV.
0:37:48 58.
0:37:49 Is that right? 70?
0:37:50 70. Do you realize?
0:37:51 Do you realize?
0:37:53 My God, these companies are dead.
0:37:54 This is ridiculous.
0:37:55 Dead.
0:37:58 That means if you accidentally turn on, this is true.
0:38:05 If you accidentally turn on MSNBC, it means someone 114 is also watching.
0:38:06 Seriously.
0:38:10 You’re 44 years younger than their average viewer.
0:38:13 I mean, it’s just insane.
0:38:14 It’s insane.
0:38:19 I was just blown away by that number.
0:38:20 I like MSNBC.
0:38:23 I think it has sort of a young, crisp, cool feel to it.
0:38:24 I love Joe and Mika.
0:38:26 I think Stephanie Ruhle’s an outstanding talent.
0:38:28 I love Joy Reid.
0:38:30 I think they do a great job.
0:38:33 The average age is, anyway, it just blew me away.
0:38:37 All a long-winded way of saying the world is headed this way.
0:38:42 Only 29% of Gen Z watches live TV, so about one in three.
0:38:47 But 50% of those age 12 to 34 have listened to a podcast in the past month.
0:38:52 By the way, there was an event last night that I couldn’t go to that I was invited to, where
0:38:55 Leo DiCaprio was there and a bunch of stars.
0:39:00 And they asked you to do a video either with another star talking about why you are voting
0:39:03 for Harris and encouraging people.
0:39:05 And then they’re trying to push it out.
0:39:06 Right?
0:39:10 And it’s a formal event to try and get celebrities and see-less celebrities.
0:39:13 See above I was invited to come talk about Harris.
0:39:15 That’s generous to yourself.
0:39:16 Yeah.
0:39:17 Thanks for that.
0:39:18 Thanks for that.
0:39:19 Go to work for Jane Street.
0:39:23 Anyway, since 2017, Trump has appeared or been mentioned in nearly 70,000 podcasts.
0:39:27 Harris has appeared or been mentioned in a little over 12,000 podcasts.
0:39:32 His appearance on Lex Friedman, The Sean Ryan Show, this past weekend with Theo Vaughan,
0:39:36 people sent podcasts, Flagrant and the All In pod have netted almost 30 million views
0:39:37 on YouTube.
0:39:38 It’s unbelievable.
0:39:40 Walls will soon appear on SmartLess.
0:39:43 Actually, the Walls campaign has reached out to us where we’ve reached out to them.
0:39:47 The Walls team has reached out to us, so we have reached out to them or that’s a question.
0:39:48 I forget.
0:39:49 I’ve heard rumors.
0:39:51 That’s a very important distinction.
0:39:56 I’ve heard rumors that Governor Walls might be coming on the podcast.
0:40:00 I just want to hear him say like things like, you know, he’s the kind of guy that says to
0:40:03 you when you’re leaving your house, he’d be like, “Watch for reindeer and text us when
0:40:08 you get home,” or you’re out to diner with him and the waitress comes up and he says,
0:40:09 “What’s the damage?”
0:40:11 He’s the kind of guy.
0:40:16 If you were broken down on the side of the road, you pray that Governor Walls drives by
0:40:20 you because he just seems like the kind of guy that would pull over and you could absolutely
0:40:21 get your car going again.
0:40:22 That is exactly right.
0:40:26 And my favorite thing about him, he doesn’t own stocks.
0:40:27 Yeah, I don’t like that about him.
0:40:28 I think it’s weird.
0:40:29 I love that.
0:40:30 I think that’s hilarious.
0:40:31 I think it’s hilarious.
0:40:33 I think he’s that guy.
0:40:36 I’d like to go eat beef with that guy.
0:40:40 We’ll be right back after the break with a look at the college consulting industry.
0:40:55 If you’re enjoying the show, hit follow and leave us a review on Croft U Markets.
0:40:57 Thanks for watching.
0:40:58 I’ll see you in the next video.
0:41:27 [MUSIC]
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0:41:55 Get started at HubSpot.com/marketers.
0:41:57 What’s the feeling of fall?
0:41:59 It’s finally catching the sunrise.
0:42:01 And not because you woke up early.
0:42:04 No, you woke up nice and late.
0:42:05 And you know what?
0:42:07 The sun waited.
0:42:09 Then you went and got what you love from Starbucks.
0:42:13 The new pecan crunch oat latte and new baked apple croissant.
0:42:19 And enjoyed that warm apple filling and those nutty flavors with rich brown buttery notes.
0:42:21 While the sun rose, just for you.
0:42:25 That’s the feeling of fall, and it’s only at Starbucks.
0:42:31 We’re back with Proffsy Markets.
0:42:35 There’s a hot new luxury market that very few can afford.
0:42:37 Elite College Consulting.
0:42:43 The Wall Street Journal published a profile last week on a leader in that space, Crimson Education.
0:42:49 The consulting company coaches kids on how to score a spot in an Ivy League school starting as early as middle school.
0:42:56 Parents shell out for these four to six year programs with prices ranging from $30,000 to $200,000.
0:42:59 The lucrative business has caught the eye of private equity.
0:43:04 And after several funding rounds, Crimson Education is worth half a billion dollars.
0:43:07 Scott, this company is not alone.
0:43:10 It is indicative of a larger trend in the past 20 years.
0:43:13 College consulting revenue has tripled.
0:43:17 What do you make of this new hot market?
0:43:19 Well, first, let’s set some context.
0:43:27 There’s a bit of a narrative in the zeitgeist or in the kind of public discourse that, oh, it doesn’t matter where you go to college.
0:43:29 The reality is it makes a huge difference.
0:43:36 While less than 1% of Americans attend the 12 Ivy and Ivy Plus colleges, Stanford, MIT, Duke, and University of Chicago,
0:43:43 graduates of these universities account for 10% of the Fortune 500 CEOs, a quarter of U.S. senators,
0:43:50 half of all road scholars, and 3/4 of Supreme Court justices appointed in the last half century.
0:43:54 So if you get into an Ivy League school, as much as it doesn’t matter,
0:43:57 I would just say ride that whole Ivy thing out and see where it takes you.
0:44:06 The kind of premier on-ramp to an upper middle class or wealthy lifestyle is, in fact, an elite college degree.
0:44:12 The acceptance rates have declined 30 and most Ivy’s have declined between 30 and 50% over the past decade,
0:44:15 meaning they’ve gone from like 12% to 6%.
0:44:20 In my case, UCLA, they’ve gone from 76% acceptance rate to nine.
0:44:25 The kids who get screwed, the kids who get screwed are kids from middle-class households.
0:44:28 They’re not rich enough to afford the industrial tutoring complex.
0:44:31 Dad doesn’t have a friend on the board of Brown, but at the same time,
0:44:39 their story isn’t as nearly as compelling as someone who’s managed to overcome the immense obstacles facing lower-income households
0:44:41 and do relatively well in school.
0:44:46 So the kids who really take it on the chin here are kids from middle-class households.
0:44:49 Now, I have some experience here.
0:44:54 I was a client of Crimson and the founder reached out to me.
0:44:59 I was talking about college and knew he knew I’d kid, lovely guy, and I said, “This is great. I’d like to try it.”
0:45:04 And it was a few years ago, and we set up a tutoring session or a couple of them with my son.
0:45:10 And my son was doing really well in school and didn’t really kind of didn’t like it and didn’t felt he needed it.
0:45:14 I remember it being quite expensive, and so we ended up not using it.
0:45:17 And now, I’m entering in.
0:45:18 My son is in the 11th grade.
0:45:24 I’m meeting him for his college tour next week, and I can already feel the anxiety starting.
0:45:27 Not as much for him, but for his parents.
0:45:36 And we’re probably going to use, I don’t know if we’ll use a college counselor, but I’m open to it because here’s the bottom line.
0:45:38 You want every advantage for your own kid.
0:45:45 And if you have money, you want to take advantage of every advantage you could have for your kid.
0:45:48 So I can see why this market is booming.
0:45:49 What do you have?
0:45:52 Where you go to college is really important.
0:45:54 These folks probably can help.
0:46:09 And if you have money, what better way to spend your money than helping your kid achieve something or be affiliated with an association or an organization that improves the likelihood that they will have money, which improves the likelihood they’ll have a rewarding life.
0:46:14 So I think this makes all kinds of sense that this industry is booming.
0:46:23 Very interesting that you tried it. Maybe we can discuss that more in a second, but first I would like to just propose an economic thesis to you.
0:46:34 So the Ivy League receives more than $2 billion in alumni donations every year, and that is a number that continues to grow.
0:46:43 And we can have a debate over whether that is because people have a lot of school spirit or whether it’s because they want to increase the chances of their kids getting in.
0:46:48 My belief is that it is almost 100% the latter.
0:46:52 They are spending $2 billion per year because they want to get their kids in.
0:46:56 At the same time, legacy admissions are being phased out in America.
0:46:59 Colorado has banned it. Virginia has banned it.
0:47:02 Most recently, California has banned it.
0:47:08 And it is highly, highly likely that in the next few years, legacy admissions will be gone in America.
0:47:15 And those donations to these schools will not actually be effective at what they’re designed to do, which is to get your kids in.
0:47:27 And so what that means then is that soon enough, there will be $2 billion in annual college fixing dollars that will soon be looking for a home.
0:47:30 And what better home than private consultants?
0:47:43 In other words, this gigantic, historic industry of paying to get into college in the form of buildings and donations is about to be stripped away from the universities.
0:47:47 And the question for me is who’s going to get the money there?
0:47:50 Who’s actually going to steal that money from the universities?
0:48:04 And this all leads me to believe the best investment in education right now is something like a Crimson education, an elite college consultant that is going to be the beneficiary of legacy admissions disappearing.
0:48:12 And there’s billions of dollars that go to buildings will end up in the pockets of private companies that offer consulting services.
0:48:13 Do you agree?
0:48:15 I agree with some of it, not all of it.
0:48:29 So I agree that this industry will become bigger and bigger and it’ll almost become not that you have an advantage by hiring a consultant, but at some point it’ll flip and it’ll be you have a disadvantage if you don’t hire in a consultant.
0:48:40 Because, you know, they’re smart and they give you, I’m sure, tips and can help the kid figure out the right kind of summer job they want to have on their application process.
0:48:41 I mean, they’re experts.
0:48:44 They know what they’re doing and you have a leg up.
0:48:52 The thing I don’t agree with that you said is that the majority of giving is a transaction hoping to get your kids into school.
0:48:56 I do think there’s some of that, maybe even a healthy amount of it.
0:49:08 But as someone who has given a lot of money to their alma mater, University of California, Los Angeles and University of California, Berkeley, the chancellors were very explicit with me.
0:49:14 And that is not only does this not guarantee my kid is getting in, it likely hurts their chances.
0:49:23 Because at a public university they have to, and the former chancellor, I think it was Chancellor Christ, at Berkeley said my daughter applied and didn’t get in.
0:49:31 With public schools, there’s immense scrutiny over the children of donors and children of the faculty members.
0:49:37 And the newspapers and the local, you know, and even the school newspaper are all over the stuff.
0:49:39 Private schools can kind of do what they want.
0:49:49 So there are some schools where I think the development department, if they get a call from the right person, you know, will in fact, you can, you know, increase the odds.
0:49:54 But it’s not like you can just show up with a million bucks and get your kids into a certain school.
0:49:56 I think you can.
0:49:58 Well, I think it depends on the school.
0:50:05 I mean, maybe five, maybe the number is not one million, but I feel like there’s probably a number that pretty much does it.
0:50:06 That’s fair.
0:50:21 I think that if you’re a guy who’s given $10 million to a private university and your first kid’s getting in and your second kid wants to go out, and you keep continuing to give money, there’s a good chance you’re going to get in.
0:50:25 And here’s the thing, I don’t have a problem with it.
0:50:30 What I have a problem with is that, like, we’re whores.
0:50:33 The problem is we’re not transparent about being whores in higher education.
0:50:36 And I think what we should do is the following.
0:50:40 We let international students in and we claim it’s for diversity.
0:50:51 No, it’s because international students check a box in their application saying, I will never apply for any sort of financial aid and they pay full freight.
0:50:57 So, you know how basically there’s the retail price in certain industries and then there’s the price.
0:51:05 You know when you’re in a hotel and you turn the door around and it says we can charge up to $7 million for this room, but they don’t.
0:51:06 It’s much lower than that.
0:51:13 The full sticker price at an Ivy League university, the majority of students are not paying.
0:51:21 What I would like to say is just be more transparent and say, “Pay us a million bucks as long as your kid’s not a fucking idiot.
0:51:32 We’ll let little Bobby or Susie in, but we’re going to take that money and we’re going to use it to expand seats for lower income kids.”
0:51:37 I do think there’s something to the notion of, look, this is a transaction.
0:51:38 Let’s be honest, folks.
0:51:42 We’re not pursuing light in learning.
0:51:43 This is a business.
0:51:51 At MIT, there are 10 administrators for every one faculty member and they make big lofty statements about building leaders.
0:51:52 It’s a business.
0:51:56 So, I wouldn’t have a problem with them saying, okay, you know, it just happened.
0:52:06 At the Haas School of Business, there was a kid, a student in our school who everybody knew was not that bright or not academically that good.
0:52:08 This person’s father was a billionaire.
0:52:11 We all knew how this person got in.
0:52:20 And I was okay with that because this person’s dad was going to be very generous to the school and help pay for financial aid for other students.
0:52:35 So, as long as the money is not going to, you know, a new building or more compensation for the office of student engagement or some other bullshit, but it’s actually used to expand seats, I wouldn’t have a problem with it.
0:52:49 In terms of why you give money, what I have found, at least personally, I give money kind of out of, I’d like to think out of citizenship and a nod to California taxpayers who changed my life, but also to be quite frankly, ego.
0:52:51 I didn’t give it anonymously.
0:52:53 I’m talking about it now because it makes me feel masculine.
0:52:55 It makes me feel strong.
0:52:57 It makes me feel successful.
0:53:07 I liked that I was on UCLA’s homepage and all my peers who, you know, didn’t let me into their fraternity or wouldn’t go on a date with me, see that daddy’s a fucking baller now.
0:53:10 So, it all comes back to the same thing for me.
0:53:18 This argument over who gets in is a giant misdirect from the real issue and that is how many get in.
0:53:24 Education is, there are a small number of things America does really, really well.
0:53:27 We make the best software in the world, software and technology.
0:53:29 We make the best media in the world.
0:53:36 If there’s a movie with a guy in tights with a hammer or whatever, we produced it and it’s going to make a billion bucks.
0:53:38 We make the best weapons in the world.
0:53:44 We also have hands down the best college experience of any country in the world.
0:53:53 There’s just nowhere that has Duke basketball or Royce Hall or fall leaves in Brazil or Czechoslovakia.
0:53:56 The U.S. college experience is the ultimate luxury brand.
0:53:57 It’s the ultimate signal.
0:54:01 It is the ultimate kind of young adult experience.
0:54:09 And, you know, my question is, if you have the best product in the world, there’s Thor 6, 7 and 8.
0:54:12 They’ll keep cranking those things out as long as they make money.
0:54:14 They’ll keep trying to grow that franchise.
0:54:19 Yet this industry has decided, no, we’re a luxury brand, we’re going to create scarcity.
0:54:28 And if I had a pill and you took this pill or anyone took this pill and it made them less likely to be obese, more likely to be wealthy,
0:54:35 more likely to have kids, more likely to get married, more likely to stay married, less likely to commit suicide.
0:54:39 Wouldn’t you want to give that pill to as many people as possible?
0:54:42 That pill is called higher education.
0:54:52 And yet we have decided as alumni and faculty who both endorse scarce admissions, we have decided to hoard that drug.
0:54:54 It’s morally corrupt.
0:54:57 And they say, well, it would ruin the scarcity, it would ruin the brand.
0:55:02 When UCLA had a 76% admissions rate, it wasn’t exactly PicoTech.
0:55:07 Maybe the brand wasn’t what it is now, but it was a really good brand when I applied.
0:55:16 So this bullshit that the, by letting in more kids into Harvard, it would ruin what Harvard is or ruin what Caltech or Duke is.
0:55:17 Bullshit.
0:55:22 This is a bunch of people who are infected with the same virus that infects all of America.
0:55:32 And that is once I have a house, once I have a college degree, I want to make it harder for everyone else to get it because that’ll take the value of my scarce asset up.
0:55:37 It is totally un-American and it is coming back to haunt all of us.
0:55:41 Oh, I could never get into the college I went to if I applied now.
0:55:42 Well, fuck you.
0:55:44 That means your kid isn’t getting a new shit head.
0:55:47 You should be upset about that.
0:55:50 That means there’s something wrong in Mudville.
0:55:59 That means you in a next life are not getting into college and your house is going to be a fucking stack of stress.
0:56:02 The senior year for that kid in that kid in school.
0:56:11 There’s so much unnecessary stress and households across America because my industry has decided that we’re no longer public servants.
0:56:13 We’re fucking Chanel bags.
0:56:16 Let’s take a look at the week out.
0:56:20 We’ll see earnings from Tesla, Amazon and SAP.
0:56:24 And we’ll also see consumer sentiment data for October.
0:56:26 Scott, do you have any predictions?
0:56:27 I said my predictions.
0:56:29 I kind of have too many ones.
0:56:38 Donald Trump media stock is going to go below 10 and above 80 in the next three weeks based on what happens to the election in the election.
0:56:41 This is going to become the most volatile stock over the last three years.
0:56:45 It’s essentially become the gambling side we were talking about.
0:56:51 And then my other prediction, we’ve already said this, the technology of 2025 is going to be nuclear.
0:56:55 This episode was produced by Claire Miller and engineered by Benjamin Spencer.
0:56:57 Our associate producer is Alison Weiss.
0:56:59 Mia Silvero is our research lead.
0:57:01 Jessica Lang is our research associate.
0:57:03 Drew Burroughs is our technical director.
0:57:05 And Catherine Dillon is our executive producer.
0:57:09 Thank you for listening to Prof.G Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
0:57:15 Join us on Thursday for our conversation with Patrick Morehead only on Prof.G Markets.
0:57:21 Life times
0:57:28 You help me
0:57:31 In kind
0:57:35 Reunion
0:57:40 As the world turns
0:57:46 And the dark lies
0:57:50 And love, love, love, love
0:57:59 [BLANK_AUDIO]