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0:02:36 Go, go, go!
0:02:41 Welcome to the 320th episode of the Prop G Pod. In today’s episode we speak with Dr.
0:02:47 Marty McCary, a renowned surgeon and Professor Johns Hopkins, public health expert and leading
0:02:53 advocate for healthcare transparency and a two-time New York Times bestselling author.
0:02:57 We discussed with Marty his latest book, Blind Spots, when medicine gets it wrong and what
0:03:02 it means for our health. We get into what modern medicine gets wrong, we’re gonna need
0:03:07 a bigger boat and the issues of over medication and his thoughts on weight loss drugs, which
0:03:13 we talk a lot about here. Okay, what’s happening? The dog is in L.A. for a week. Hello ladies,
0:03:21 angeles los, los angeles. But I’m trying to be a little bit more healthy this week,
0:03:26 hanging out, working out, saying a bunch of friends. I met with two very charming Netflix
0:03:33 executives last night from the prestige group. Super talented woman from AMC and HBO working
0:03:38 on my, I don’t know if you’ve heard, but I’m working on an original scripted series based
0:03:45 on big tech that’s been purchased by Netflix for a full season. Just something I do. Just
0:03:49 something I’m doing. I’m kind of that guy. I’m kind of that Hollywood guy. By the way,
0:03:54 the best thing about me being in the industry, quote, unquote, this has been seven years
0:03:58 in the making. I wrote a book called The Four about seven years ago. It was essentially
0:04:02 a love letter to big tech companies. It’s called the Hidden DNA of Amazon, Apple, Facebook
0:04:06 and Google. And it started out as a love letter. I really do like these companies. I’ve made
0:04:09 a lot of money from them. I think they’re interesting. I think they’re fascinating. I’m
0:04:13 fascinated by the leaders. And as I was doing research for this book, I got increasingly
0:04:17 uncomfortable and slowly but surely by the end of the book, it was a cautionary tale.
0:04:22 And I have been pitching this as an original scripted drama. I think, well, what succession
0:04:27 is to family controlled media or billions is to the alternative investments community.
0:04:31 We’re trying to do the same thing for big tech. A story of the companies and the personalities
0:04:36 behind them. It’s a, it’s a drama. So it’s inspired by some of the people in it, but
0:04:40 it’s not a biopic. It’s not about, or it’s not a documentary. So I’m super excited about
0:04:44 that. But the best thing about this is that I’m entering from a point of where I already
0:04:51 have, I already have economic security. I don’t need this industry for my living. I cannot
0:04:56 imagine a more stressful place. Probably, probably being a, you know, in the Marines
0:05:01 is pretty stressful. But I can’t imagine a more stressful place to try and make a living
0:05:06 in LA right now in terms of the entertainment industry. It isn’t, it’s not a structural
0:05:10 decline. Content budgets are actually up 2% this year, which is nothing for the first
0:05:16 time. Netflix kind of the 10 ton grill in the space is spending more money on global
0:05:21 production. For the first time, they are more than 50% of the content budget is being allocated
0:05:27 overseas. Why? This is a business. And the basic, the basic premise here, the basic ratio
0:05:32 kicking the shit out of LA is that some of the most popular series relative to ROI or
0:05:36 the series that had the greatest ROI, it was the movie Parasite, which was filmed, I believe
0:05:42 in South Korea, didn’t cost a lot to make, but made good money. So they’ve recognized
0:05:47 that we can produce a lot more films and the hurdle rate is much lower. So we can take
0:05:53 much greater risks in terms of artistic expression by filming things overseas. And there’s this
0:05:58 entire middle layer that soaks up a lot of margin. And essentially YouTube decided, all
0:06:03 right, we’re going to create this sort of Netflix like competitor, and you can upload
0:06:07 a film or a television. And just based on the numbers of viewers, we will promote it
0:06:12 or not promote it. So there’s a sense of kind of a direct to consumer dispersion of creative,
0:06:16 similar to what TikTok’s doing that will continue to each share. By the way, what’s the most
0:06:22 popular streamer in the world? Is it Netflix at 7% of all viewing time? No, it’s YouTube
0:06:26 at 10%. YouTube is the number one streamer. We really don’t talk about it, but you have
0:06:31 dispersion, content moving to creators all over the world. When you have a crazy set,
0:06:36 there’s 1.7 billion people on TikTok. Half of them are creators. There’s a half a million
0:06:42 people making their money from streaming. So 850 million creators on TikTok, they are
0:06:47 not as good as the half a million creators working in the streaming industry. But say
0:06:52 1% of them are as good. That’s 8.5 million people. Well, still, well, it’s not 1% of
0:07:00 them. It’s 0.1% of them are really outstanding talent. That’s 850,000 additional creators,
0:07:05 human capital that the existing streaming ecosystem has to compete with. I think LA is always
0:07:10 going to do fine because of the lifestyle is so incredible. But at some point when so
0:07:16 many people leave because they don’t find they can make a living here because of taxation,
0:07:20 because of the high cost of living, I wonder if it becomes a little bit like London might
0:07:24 be the analogy where wealthy people have a home here, but there’s not that much money
0:07:29 being made here. And it turns into sort of a hospitality city where it’s about real estate
0:07:32 and servicing people who have made their money elsewhere. I would move back to LA if it wasn’t
0:07:37 so fucking far from everything. Do you forget how far it is? One of the things that’s really
0:07:41 messing with me is the jet lag I got here. I’m having trouble just sort of thinking clearly
0:07:45 as evidenced by this rant that has nothing to do with the script. Let’s get back to the script.
0:07:51 All right, what’s happening? Google Stranglehold on the $300 billion search and ad market is
0:07:55 starting to weaken. According to the research firm eMarketer, Google share of US search ad
0:08:01 market is expected to fall below 50% next year for the first time in over a decade. Wow. Wow,
0:08:09 that’s from 60% as recently as 2018 and it’s going down. And who’s taking share from them?
0:08:16 Amazon and also AI. I don’t know about you, but I found I’m starting to type search queries
0:08:21 into chat GPT and Claude. I’m not sure if I generally like Claude more. I think it’s actually
0:08:26 better with writing, but I like to think of myself as alternative. I mean, look, I’m an edge.
0:08:32 There’s a little salsa on the dog chip. That’s right. So I use Claude. Everyone’s like chat GPT,
0:08:37 and I’m like, I use Claude like I’m in the, in the know. And that is eating into what is probably
0:08:42 the most lucrative market ever. That is the $300 billion search business. The analogy I would use
0:08:48 for search and I’ve used it before, but it’s worth repeating is retail. And that is the retailers
0:08:54 that added the most shareholder value in the 50s, 60s, 70s and arguably right into the 80s was big
0:09:00 box, massive selection, everything there. You want peanut butter? No problem. We have 45 marans,
0:09:06 right? And it comes in big vats and it’s inexpensive. Everything for less. That’s Google. It gives you
0:09:11 7000 search returns and 0.0055 seconds. The problem is you have to sort through all those returns.
0:09:17 And increasingly, those returns are a lot of bullshit. And that is it doesn’t take you to the
0:09:23 best place. It takes you to another place that it can further monetize. As a shareholder value,
0:09:28 its shareholders continue to want 20 and 30% annual shareholder growth. Now along came in
0:09:33 retail, specialty retail, actually in the 80s, circuit city was the number one stock performer.
0:09:38 Remember them? We’re services state of the art and they brought together every piece of electronics.
0:09:43 And then in the 90s and the 2000s, the greatest market capitalization retail was created by
0:09:47 specialty retail. Special retail is the following. It recognizes what is
0:09:54 the most overlooked truth in marketing. And that is choice is not a feature. It’s a bug.
0:09:59 And that’s it. Consumers want someone with better taste in them to tell them what to buy.
0:10:05 And that’s what AI is. AI is the specialty retail to traditional searches, Walmart.
0:10:09 And that is we’re not going to give you 5000 answers and then ask you to sort through them
0:10:13 and figure it out. We have someone who has better taste than you, essentially GPU chips,
0:10:17 that’s going to attempt to give you the best toaster. It’s going to give you the best one
0:10:21 answer. And if you don’t like that toaster, you can say, well, what about a toaster that can do
0:10:26 four slices? You can ask query, follow on questions or you can ask AI, follow on questions. And it
0:10:31 comes back with the right answer. Does that mean Google is going to go away? No. It’s the Walmart.
0:10:38 It’s the Costco. It’s the Best Buy. These companies will still do well. But the major
0:10:43 shareholder growth, the major growth of market capitalization is going to be in the specialty
0:10:47 retail component of search. And that is going to be AI. And we’re already starting to see with
0:10:55 perplexity and open AI. That’s a good analogy. That’s a good analogy here from Los Angeles.
0:10:59 Amazon, get this, is expected to account for 22.3% of the market this year,
0:11:07 up 17.6% compared to Google’s 50.5% share and 7.6% growth. I mean, think about Amazon,
0:11:11 50 cents on the dollar in e-commerce, if you take out gross or in gasoline. And
0:11:17 this blows me away, 22% of share, a quarter of the search market goes to Amazon. If people
0:11:23 want stuff, they use Amazon as a search engine. What people also don’t recognize is that Amazon is
0:11:29 one of the five or 10 largest media companies in the world, AWS that suggests different products.
0:11:35 If you’re searching for huggies, they go to Pampers or PNG and they say, “Would you like
0:11:39 to run an ad for Pampers?” And they say, “Yes, especially if someone’s looking for diapers
0:11:44 from a competitor.” And then they start essentially being like the mob with protection money saying
0:11:47 that if you have the best product or the best price, that’s not enough. If you want to be in
0:11:52 the golden buy box, you want to come up, I in search, you have to use our fulfillment and
0:11:56 our advertising. And we’re basically going to starch all of the margin from your product, whereas
0:12:02 brands and products on the third-party marketplace used to pay about 22 or 25%
0:12:09 of their top line to Amazon. Now it’s 45%. There’s a term for this, monopoly. Oh, wait,
0:12:14 no, that’s not true, monopoly abuse. Okay, TikTok plays an interesting role in search,
0:12:20 especially for Gen Z. Axios reported that 21% of 18 to 24-year-olds start their search journey with
0:12:24 TikTok. The platform has started allowing brands to target ads based on search queries and move
0:12:30 that directly challenges Google’s core business. And then there’s perplexity, the AI-powered search
0:12:35 startup backed by Jeff Bezos, which is introducing ads in their AI-generated answers and letting
0:12:41 advertisers sponsor follow-up questions. You know, it’s nice to see Jeff finally starting to make
0:12:47 some money. And I hope he finds somebody. And Jeff, don’t be so shy. Live out your midlife crisis.
0:12:53 Really, enjoy yourself. Buy a canary yellow T-top Corvette and crash it into a hairplugs clinic.
0:12:57 Jesus Christ, could this guy be having more of a midlife crisis right now? And I just want to say,
0:13:03 Jeff, I’m here for it. When you’re in LA, call me, we’ll roll together, be totally pathetic,
0:13:06 but we don’t care. We’re at the point where we recognize we’re going to die soon. Let’s just go
0:13:13 for it, buddy. Let’s just go for it. I’m in. Anyways, the big tech stock for 2024, during my
0:13:18 predictions, by the way, we were reviewing my predictions for 2024. I get more right than I
0:13:22 get wrong almost every year. And occasionally I kind of nail it. But in 2024, I would best describe
0:13:28 my predictions. Reviewing them is what’s the term? Shitting the bet. I literally got everything wrong.
0:13:34 One of my picks was alphabet because I think it’s going to be revenge of the nerds. I do think their
0:13:39 AI is going to be pretty powerful. I wonder if it’s too late. If CzechGPT is kind of pulling away
0:13:45 with it. Anyways, alphabet’s performed relatively well, but Amazon has performed much better.
0:13:52 Think about Amazon. Best cloud provider, number two in search, number one in e-commerce. I mean,
0:13:58 these guys are just like kind of killing it. I would say other than their video, it’s kind of a
0:14:02 distance, three or four. Many advertisers are cautious about shifting their budgets from Google
0:14:07 to TikTok due to lower search volume. While TikTok has massive appeal among younger audiences,
0:14:13 it still can’t match Google’s overall search traffic, which handles about two trillion searches
0:14:19 per year. Two trillion. Wow. The big picture, this is happening as Google faces legal challenges,
0:14:23 including antitrust case. It lost the summer, which heightened attention around its search
0:14:30 ad dominance. What’s the future of search? Like I said, it’s bifurcating. I do think there’s plenty
0:14:34 to go around. I do think AI, you want to learn about, you understand it, you want to start
0:14:38 thinking about, and it’ll come naturally just playing with it, how it impacts your industry.
0:14:47 In sum, AI is not going to take your job. Somebody who understands AI is going to take your job.
0:14:52 We’ll be right back for our conversation with Dr. Marty Ikari.
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0:17:09 Welcome back. Here’s our conversation with Dr. Marty MacCary, a renowned surgeon and
0:17:13 Professor Johns Hopkins, a leading advocate for healthcare transparency and a two-time
0:17:17 New York Times bestselling author. Dr., where does this podcast find you?
0:17:22 I’m in New York today. Let’s best write into it. Your new book, “Blind Spots,” when medicine
0:17:28 gets it wrong and what it means for our health, is an eye-opening book about the latest scientific
0:17:32 research on the biggest health topics of our day, including hormone replacement therapy,
0:17:36 peanut allergies, cholesterol, gut health, and rising levels of cancer in young people.
0:17:44 Let’s start there. What does modern medicine get wrong? What are the biggest blind spots?
0:17:49 Well, modern medicine is so busy billing and coding and seeing patients in short visits that
0:17:55 we’ve not been talking about the root causes of so many of these diseases that are on the rise
0:18:01 and with cancer on the rise in young people. We’ve got to talk about our poison food supply
0:18:07 and the chemical ingredients that are engineered and added to our food that are banned in Europe
0:18:11 and Canada. Now, we’ve got to talk about environmental exposures that cause cancer,
0:18:15 not just the chemo to treat it. And we’ve got to talk about school lunch programs,
0:18:18 not just putting every kid on ozempic when they get overweight.
0:18:24 We’ve seen this massive explosion of chronic diseases in our lifetime. It didn’t exist two
0:18:28 generations ago. It doesn’t exist in many parts of the Amish community that still
0:18:35 use good farming and eat food from the soil. And it doesn’t exist in many parts of the world.
0:18:39 So, we’ve got to look at what we’re doing differently. Those root causes have been in our
0:18:45 blind spots. What you say really resonates. The first thing I noticed, we moved to the UK
0:18:49 two years ago, and I’m not exaggerating. The first thing I noticed was that everything in a
0:18:57 refrigerator went bad or spoiled in two or three days. And what I recognize is that’s a feature,
0:19:03 not a bug. It’s because you’re not putting all the preservatives and shit in it. Is that part
0:19:09 of the problem that in order to increase economics and decrease the perishability,
0:19:12 we just put too many things in our foods that aren’t healthy?
0:19:17 I’ve got patients that have chronic pain and nothing works. We try everything in modern medicine,
0:19:22 but then they come back and say, “I spent a summer in Italy and for the first time I felt healthy.”
0:19:29 And what’s going on is they’re eating healthy foods, foods that are designed to go bad after
0:19:33 some time. They don’t have these chemicals designed to increase the shelf life. So,
0:19:39 that’s a part of it, along with pesticides that are killing insects in the crops, but
0:19:45 they’re also killing our gut microbiome, the bacteria that line our gut. So, there’s so many
0:19:50 factors, but that’s exactly the sort of thing right now that we need to take a hard look at.
0:19:54 If you thought, “Okay, I don’t have the money or I don’t have the energy to totally reconfigure
0:20:00 my diet,” what are two or three things you could do right away that would take out, say, a disproportionate
0:20:04 amount of the risk factors in your diet? Well, I hear that a lot. I hear organic food,
0:20:10 which is food without pesticides, costs too much. And I tell people, “Try the cost of insulin,”
0:20:15 because a lot of these things going on today are the direct result of our poison food supply.
0:20:22 How else do you have 40% of our nation’s children that are overweight or obese and just 5% in Japan?
0:20:29 Our kids in America are not more disobedient or more addicted as a part of their personality.
0:20:33 Now, we’ve poisoned the food supply and created highly addictive foods
0:20:41 that have things like food dyes. So, food dyes, for example, are mostly banned in Europe and Canada.
0:20:48 So, Kellogg’s makes two types of fruit loops. One with the banned ingredients for the American kids
0:20:54 that makes the food look all colorful and shiny, and one without the banned ingredients that they
0:20:59 ship to Canada. So, don’t American kids deserve the healthier version of food made by an American
0:21:06 company? California just banned seven food dyes. Ten other states have some bans on these dyes.
0:21:11 But I would say, read the ingredients. Simple messages I tell patients. Drink water. Avoid
0:21:17 these sugary drinks. Avoid processed food with lots of ingredients. And watch out for seed oils.
0:21:25 They sound natural, like vegetable oil and canola and soybean oil, but they’re not. They’re denatured
0:21:30 at high temperatures and then a chemical solvent needs use to change the structure. So, these are
0:21:37 really chemicals. And when they hit the GI tract, guess what? Your body’s immune system reacts to
0:21:43 them. These are things that do not occur in nature and your body is reacting with an inflammation.
0:21:50 It’s not a big inflammatory storm. It’s a constant low-grade inflammation and it makes people feel
0:21:55 sick. And we need to address these root causes, not just medicate everybody that comes in with
0:22:01 these sicknesses. I want to put forward a thesis and get your response to it. I’ve always thought that,
0:22:06 unfortunately, in areas that are especially important to the well-being of our society,
0:22:11 when you inject the profit element, there’s some good components to it, but there’s a lot of bad
0:22:18 components. And I’ve always thought that essentially the industrial food complex has a profit incentive
0:22:24 to get you addicted to terribly addictive sugary, terrible food such that they can hand you over
0:22:27 to the industrial diabetes complex where there’s a ton of money. Your thoughts?
0:22:36 Well, I think you’re right. The food industry started off with a charge to address food insecurity
0:22:42 and world hunger. And so they started creating techniques, genetically modifying food, adding
0:22:49 pesticides after it was discovered in the days after Asian orange that it would kill insects,
0:22:56 but it also killed the crops. So they genetically modified the crops to be so-called roundup ready.
0:23:01 That’s where they can tolerate the pesticides. Well, that’s our modern-day food supply,
0:23:07 but the problem is, human beings are not made roundup ready. So it’s poisoning the human body
0:23:13 as well. So look, I see the best in people, and I think the food industry started off with this
0:23:19 commission, this charge to mass produce food. Now we have to educate people about the unintended
0:23:26 consequences of all these chemical ingredients in ultra-processed foods and food slays with
0:23:32 pesticides. For example, pesticides have hormone-like binding properties. Food dyes are hormone
0:23:38 disruptors. Is it a surprise that the average age of puberty goes down by a week and a half
0:23:44 every year for the last 30-plus years? It’s now years sooner than it was a generation ago.
0:23:50 That sperm counts are down 50% in the last five decades. That rates of GI cancers are increasing.
0:23:55 So these are things we don’t talk about in medicine. I got zero of this stuff in medical school,
0:24:02 but now that I’ve taken the effort to learn about it, research it, and summarize it for folks,
0:24:07 I’m going directly to the public, as a bunch of doctors are now, to try to educate people
0:24:14 about what’s happened to our food supply. Describe your diet. What do you try and dial up
0:24:18 and what do you dial down? Well, I think one of the biggest pieces of misinformation spread by
0:24:23 the United States government, and they’ve spread a lot of it. But one of the biggest pieces has been
0:24:29 demonizing natural fats, saturated fats. I’m not saying everyone needs to eat it,
0:24:34 but it’s a good source of protein. And when you’re eating meats that are well-sourced,
0:24:43 that is a good source of nutrition. The government food pyramid demonized natural fats,
0:24:49 moved the entire food industry to ultra-processed foods, and created these refined carbohydrate
0:24:55 addictions that have drove our obesity epidemic. I like nuts. I like fruits that are not coated
0:25:00 with pesticides. It’s especially important to buy organic when you’re eating the surface
0:25:05 of a fruit or vegetable. Strawberry, for example, has been sprayed over a dozen times
0:25:14 with 7.8 different pesticides on average. The average school lunch program may have 38 different
0:25:19 types of pesticides detectable. You can detect these things now in the urine of children in
0:25:27 the umbilical cord blood of mothers. So I’d like to eat, these are almost biblical principles,
0:25:33 right? Things that grow out of good soil, clean meats, and I do a little bit of intermittent fasting
0:25:41 when I can. Talk about intermittent fasting. Why is that helpful? Well, I think in general,
0:25:47 people are not getting enough protein. So I’d warn people about just starting to skip meals,
0:25:53 because you really want to get a good amount of protein in your meal, in your day. But I just try
0:26:01 it because I think it helps manage through a bit of willpower some of the appetite urges that I sense.
0:26:06 I’ll tell you what had a big impact is when I got rid of artificial sweeteners. The debate
0:26:12 about artificial sweeteners got really hijacked by the do or do they not cause cancer argument.
0:26:18 But I don’t think they do. They’ve been around for a long time, but what they do is they trick
0:26:24 your pancreas into thinking that a big sugar load is coming and it doesn’t come. So the pancreas is
0:26:30 waiting for that sugar load and it creates a craving and often results in binge eating of
0:26:35 carbohydrates later in the day. So by getting rid of those artificial sweeteners, I think it helped
0:26:41 manage my appetite. So which of these topics do you think the public is most informed about?
0:26:47 What are the biggest myths in healthcare? Well, I think for perimenopausal women, there’s a myth
0:26:54 that hormone replacement therapy, that is taking estrogen or estrogen plus progesterone when your
0:27:00 body doesn’t produce it anymore around the time of menopause, causes cancer. It’s one of the greatest
0:27:06 dogmas that’s still alive and well, both in the medical establishment. And it turns out the study
0:27:12 that was cited where people say, aha, here’s the study where we show it caused cancer did not
0:27:18 show a statistically significant increase in cancer. But the announcement was so magnificent
0:27:25 and so broad by researchers at the NIH, the media ran with the story before they ever looked at the
0:27:33 data. The data were released later, over a week later. And by that time, the world had already
0:27:37 been convinced of this dogma. Now, the reason I’m mentioning hormone replacement therapy when you
0:27:43 asked, what is, you know, what’s one of the biggest misconceptions? Here’s a medication that not only
0:27:48 alleviates the symptoms of menopause, the hot flashes, mood swings, weight gain, night sweats,
0:27:55 but also has long term health benefits because the blood vessels are healthier,
0:28:01 nitric oxide levels are higher. And so heart attack rates in some studies are half,
0:28:07 are they’re cut in half because women who start hormone therapy within 10 years of the onset
0:28:13 of menopause, the rate of cognitive decline goes down by 50 to 60%. The rate of Alzheimer’s goes
0:28:19 down by 35%. And a woman has stronger bones and is far less likely to break a bone or have a
0:28:25 hip fracture. So the overall long term health benefits are overwhelming. Women live longer
0:28:31 and feel better. But tragically, 50 million women have been denied hormone therapy
0:28:35 since the time of this dogma announcement that it causes breast cancer.
0:28:39 Do you feel the same way about testosterone replacement therapy?
0:28:44 I don’t. It’s very different with men and testosterone. Both men and women have testosterone
0:28:51 and estrogen. Now some of the dogma is parallel. For example, the dogma that testosterone therapy
0:28:57 causes prostate cancer. Another dogma like the dogma that hormone therapy and women causes
0:29:03 breast cancer is not supported by the data. Now there are benefits and I do recommend people
0:29:07 who are symptomatic get tested for their testosterone levels. And I do see people who
0:29:13 benefit, men who benefit from testosterone replacement, but the long term health benefits
0:29:16 are not as dramatic as we see with hormone therapy and women.
0:29:22 But if you go on testosterone replacement therapy at 57 and you find you’re stronger,
0:29:28 your skin’s a little more youthful, your sex is a little, your erections are a little bit longer,
0:29:34 do the benefits outweigh the drawbacks? Asking for a friend.
0:29:42 Look, yes, most of the time the benefits outweigh any potential downsides. People just need to
0:29:48 recognize that if you’re still making some testosterone on your own, you’re probably
0:29:52 going to shut that down by taking it exogenous. You’re out of the rest of your life. That’s what
0:29:59 they told me. And you talk a little bit about the chronic disease problem. What do you mean by that?
0:30:07 And how serious is it for society? Autism has increased 14% every year for the last 23 years.
0:30:12 What’s going on? Who’s looking into this? We just keep medicating kids when they come in.
0:30:18 It’s now one in 22 kids in California born today will be diagnosed with autism.
0:30:24 I mean, it barely existed. It was rare just two generations ago. It’s still rare in the Amish
0:30:29 community in other parts of the world that have not adopted the Western diet. And I think the
0:30:38 autism cause discussion has also been hijacked by the is it or is it not vaccines after a fraudulent
0:30:46 study suggested it was due to vaccines? But we got to put that aside and talk about the microbiome,
0:30:52 the lining of the GI tract, the garden of bacteria that normally live in harmony, millions of
0:30:59 different bacteria that we alter. We throw it off. We carpet bomb it with ultra processed foods,
0:31:05 antibiotics, even C-sections. Antibiotics and C-sections can save lives, but they’re massively
0:31:11 overused, especially antibiotics. And a study just found that kids who take antibiotics in the
0:31:19 first couple of years compared to kids who do not have higher rates of learning disabilities
0:31:25 and obesity and celiac and asthma. And you may wonder, how could altering the microbiome
0:31:31 affect mental illness? Well, some of those bacteria make serotonin. And if you look at the diets of
0:31:39 people in Europe, it’s very different. They have far less chemicals. They have lower rates of mental
0:31:47 illness, of autism, of obesity, of autoimmune diseases. Autoimmune diseases now affect one
0:31:54 in five women. What’s going on here? My field is pancreatic cancer. As a surgeon at Johns Hopkins,
0:32:00 it specializes in the pancreas. Pancreatic cancer rates are going up. And no one is asking why.
0:32:04 We do more pancreatic cancer work than any hospital, more pancreatic cancer research
0:32:12 than any center in the country. Nobody is asking why. We’ve got to ask these big questions and talk
0:32:19 about root causes. It’s interesting, because I think of pancreatic cancer as a death sentence.
0:32:26 I just think it’s game over. Is that not true? So of those who get to surgery, which is a subgroup,
0:32:32 maybe 20 to 30% of people can have the option of having surgery, the five-year survival rates
0:32:41 about 20%. So it’s pretty bleak. And we have not made a lot of progress in the last 30 to 40 years.
0:32:48 So I think we’ve got to talk about root causes. Same thing with Alzheimer’s. Alzheimer’s is
0:32:55 skyrocketing. And we spend billions of dollars on these expensive new medications that get a lot
0:33:00 of excitement that, honestly, they barely work. And they have high side effects. And we’re not
0:33:07 talking about the study that the Mediterranean diet was found to reduce Alzheimer’s significantly.
0:33:13 Hormone therapy and peri mesoponels, causal women reduce Alzheimer’s by 35%. And Alzheimer’s is
0:33:20 associated with poor quality sleep on a chronic basis. So we could do a better job talking about
0:33:27 these underlying root issues. I mean, it sounds like in common sense is obviously where the inside
0:33:34 is. I’ve had doctors Atia and Hubertman on my podcasts. I’m always amazed how much shit they get.
0:33:40 Because what they say to me feels pretty common sense. Get good sleep, eat better, eat out less,
0:33:47 eat at home more and more grains, more vegetables, less processed food, and make sure you get some
0:33:52 exercise. I mean, I’m not saying these things are easy, but aren’t they pretty basic? And what
0:33:58 you’re talking about is preventive offensive health care as opposed to defensive health care
0:34:03 after something’s gone wrong. Is that accurate? Look, I can tell you, Peter Atia was with us
0:34:09 at Johns Hopkins. And he is as superb as they get. Evidence-driven, science-based, logical,
0:34:15 common sense, and lives what he says. And so a bunch of us now are going directly to the public
0:34:21 to try to educate them about these issues. So yes, it is common sense, but you’d be amazed.
0:34:28 90 plus percent of our food supply is sprayed by pesticides and multiple times. You just saw the
0:34:35 court case now open up the window to removing fluoride from drinking water, or at least not
0:34:40 adding it. This was a dogma for decades that we had to have fluoride in drinking water
0:34:47 because it supposedly reduced risks of cavities. Well, how about stop drinking sugary drinks if
0:34:53 we want to reduce cavities? And if the fluoride is killing the bacteria in the mouth, reducing
0:34:58 cavities, what do you think it’s doing to the microbiome bacteria in the gut? So these are
0:35:03 the big questions we’ve not been asking that we need to ask. We’ll be right back.
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0:38:07 Curious what you think. I’m in LA and whenever I’m in LA, I have a buddy here who’s what I’ll
0:38:10 call going through a midlife crisis that he’s going to grow out of in about 30 or 40 years.
0:38:17 And he always takes me to these kind of fabulous parties with a lot of very young, very fabulous,
0:38:23 very attractive LA people. And the thing I’ve noticed that’s changed among a younger generation
0:38:28 is they have substantially reduced the amount of alcohol intake and they’ve replaced it with
0:38:40 drugs, ketamine, MDMA, edibles. Give me your thoughts on the health impacts of alcohol versus
0:38:45 psilocybin versus some of these designer drugs for lack of a better reason.
0:38:51 And I recognize that ideally you don’t do any of these things. Well, and I’ll cut to the chase.
0:38:57 I drink way too much. It’s where my health falls down. Imagine you’re someone who is always probably
0:39:00 going to have a certain level of substances in their life because correctly or incorrectly,
0:39:05 they’ve identified and enhances their life. What substances would you stay away from?
0:39:12 And how do you feel about the impacts of some of these more trendy designer drugs?
0:39:19 Well, I can tell you about alcohol. So as a doctor who has dealt with liver
0:39:26 and pancreatic issues for a long time, if there ever were any tiny benefits to the heart from
0:39:32 drinking a glass or two of wine a day, they are far eclipsed by the damage done to the liver.
0:39:42 Look, I understand people have their rituals and if they want to drink a glass of alcohol,
0:39:49 I think it’s safer than cocaine, but more people die of alcohol abuse than opioids and fentanyl.
0:39:54 And so I think we don’t talk enough about the abuse potential as people need just to be
0:39:59 mindful of that because it’s one of these things that it’s in our blind spots in medicine. We just
0:40:09 sort of ignore the fact that we have up to 170,000 deaths a year from alcohol. We don’t need to be
0:40:15 celebrating and glorifying abuse of alcohol and can promote more responsible drinking.
0:40:20 And for those who choose not to drink or drink rarely, which is what I do,
0:40:25 you can probably sleep a little better and sometimes have a healthier liver.
0:40:33 What do you think of ketamine, MDMA? I was shocked how many young people would either not drink,
0:40:42 nurse a drink, but they were on ketamine or MDMA. Well, it’s a mixed story because
0:40:47 sure, while we don’t see the same deaths as we do from heroin with some of those
0:40:56 external exogenous drugs, there is the potential for abuse. You just saw the Star of Friends
0:41:02 suffer with ketamine overdosing. It can be addictive. In the past, we used to use lower
0:41:09 doses now that it’s more available and people are trying it. There’s an abuse potential people
0:41:15 may not be aware of when they first try it. So, I mean, I’m probably not the best expert to
0:41:21 answer those questions, but certainly we see an abuse potential pretty broad.
0:41:26 Marijuana is one that I know more about. I wrote about in the book Blind Spots.
0:41:31 There’s a dogma that it’s totally safe. And I try to dispel some of that because
0:41:38 sure, it’s safer than cocaine, but the idea that, oh, it’s not a gateway drug. We may want to believe
0:41:46 that, but that’s not really what’s supported by the data. Say you use it once or twice a week to
0:41:50 help sleep and wind down instead of alcohol, and it has them in a gateway drug. Again,
0:41:55 asking for a friend, what are your thoughts on edibles? Marijuana today is not the marijuana
0:42:00 of Woodstock. It’s about 10 to 20 times more potent, so you want to watch those doses.
0:42:07 You want to be aware of the fact that it acts differently in an adult than it does in an
0:42:13 adolescent, where a developing mind may be more susceptible to the risks of future psychoses.
0:42:20 In one study, 25% people who use it regularly as a teenager will go on to have some psychosis-related
0:42:26 diagnosis in the future. So, it may be more dangerous in the developing mind in adolescence.
0:42:31 You said in an interview with PragerU that there’s no reason anyone should ever sign a
0:42:39 financial document in an emergency. You suggested, right, did not read or this is not a contract
0:42:45 instead. What did you mean by that? Yes, so by law, hospitals are required to take care of you for any
0:42:50 urgent or emergent situation. And what hospitals increasingly have been doing is putting this
0:42:57 financial contract telling you, almost manipulating you to sign your life, home, mortgage, retirement,
0:43:04 savings away under penalty of law, just to be treated. And that is, if it doesn’t violate the
0:43:08 letter of the law, it violates the spirit of the law. You don’t have to sign your forms away.
0:43:15 My team has done a lot of work on hospital price gouging and predatory billing. And we found that
0:43:20 hospitals sometimes sue patients in court to garnish their wages. This violates everything
0:43:27 sacred in our profession. Hospitals are there as a safe haven to take care of somebody and
0:43:33 manipulate them to sign their life away financially, I think is predatory. I don’t think anyone should
0:43:38 ever sign a financial document in an emergency room. So, I’ll put forward another thesis and I
0:43:43 want to get your response. The majority of advanced nations have nationalized health care, spend about
0:43:49 $6500 per citizen on health care. We spend 12 to 13,000, yet we have worse outcomes, higher
0:43:56 infant mortality, lower age expectancy. And yet the insurance industry who has inserted themselves
0:44:01 in the middle here, 45 cents on the dollar goes to administration and profits, which as far as I
0:44:06 can tell in terms of math, is responsible for the difference between what other nations spend on
0:44:12 health care and what we spend. It hasn’t basically the industrial health complex, weaponized government,
0:44:16 inserted profit institutions to the expense of American citizens.
0:44:21 I think there’s a lot of truth in what you’re saying. The question is, what’s the solution?
0:44:31 And I’ve spent a lot of time in my tenure as sort of as a health policy expert in our Johns Hopkins,
0:44:35 talking about different health care systems. And I’m convinced there’s a better model than
0:44:41 what we have now. At the same time, while there’s an attractiveness to moving to a single-payer
0:44:46 system, you cut a lot of the waste in the short term, a lot of the middlemen and the
0:44:55 people profiteering off of, say, our billing and coding system. Ultimately, governments cannot resist
0:45:02 10, 20 years down the road doing across-the-board tightnings of the belt. And what it ends up
0:45:08 doing is resulting in an underfunding of the health care system. And we’ve seen that even
0:45:13 with our own government system Medicare, it’s massively underfunded. And it just becomes a
0:45:19 declining priority after the initial enthusiasm to have some government. So it’s a mixed picture.
0:45:25 I tend to focus on what’s feasible. And right now, my concern is we can have the most gold-plated
0:45:31 health insurance for every American. We can fix our broken health care financing. But if we are
0:45:37 still recommending bad practices and not addressing our poison food supply, we’re going to keep watching
0:45:44 these chronic diseases extend. So it feels as if many of these roads lead back to preventive
0:45:50 health care, specifically around our food supply system. How do we fix that? Is it taxing these
0:45:57 foods to their… I mean, my understanding is if you just priced water at its real cost, beef
0:46:03 would be $20 or $30 a pound. If you, you know, Bloomberg wanted to tax big gulps, is it taxing
0:46:10 these companies? How do you address the externalities and fix? Is it more regulation, more pricing
0:46:16 that reflects the damage or the externalities here? How do we create a healthier food supply system?
0:46:23 So, Scott, you’re talking to a guy who’s studied a lot of the unintended consequences of well-intended
0:46:29 government policies. So I’m a little leery of things like strong government interventions.
0:46:35 And so what I would suggest is the government needs to stop spreading misinformation about food
0:46:42 and nutrition. They need to stop purchasing with U.S. tax dollars dangerous foods. We do this in
0:46:47 almost every school lunch program in the United States. Heck, we strip the fiber out of the food
0:46:53 and feed it to kids like sugar and call it bread, even though it’s really not bread. And we’ve got
0:46:59 to sometimes help support these school lunch programs with subsidies to buy healthier foods.
0:47:02 I’m curious to get your thoughts on GLP-1 drugs.
0:47:08 We’re clearly seeing a reduction in short-term health complications when people lose weight.
0:47:14 But just like you’re losing excess body fat, you’re also losing muscle mass. So everyone who
0:47:20 prescribes these drugs is supposed to technically be saying that you’re supposed to exercise like
0:47:26 crazy and eat a high protein diet. But in the real world, people are not necessarily doing that.
0:47:32 And we don’t know what the long-term consequences are of losing all that excess muscle mass.
0:47:37 Here’s one little fact people may not be aware of. The number one predictor of how long you live
0:47:44 is your muscle mass. So we may be accelerating frailty and even shortening lifespan despite
0:47:52 the reduction in health complications in the short term. God, that’s wild. So everything I read about
0:48:00 Ozympic, every year I do a prediction seminar on technologies. And I said that in 2024,
0:48:05 the most seminal technology breakthrough was GLP-1 drugs. The stuff I’ve read reduces alcohol
0:48:10 consumption, biting nails. They’re talking about giving it to people with gambling and
0:48:15 social media addictions. Am I overestimating the impact this might have on our society?
0:48:21 I’m a little cautious about the premature celebration that we may now have a drug to
0:48:26 treat addiction. And it may be a secondary effect because you probably feel better about yourself
0:48:31 when you lose weight and may just have a more positive outlook and better willpower.
0:48:37 So I’m a little cautious when Pharma says we have a solution for everything. But I will tell you this,
0:48:45 Scott. We are seeing now a new generation of GLP-1 drugs like Ozympic that are about to come
0:48:50 to market. There’s an estimated to be 29 that are going to come to market in the next 20 years or so.
0:48:54 And some of these now are designed to block that receptor on the muscle.
0:49:00 So it may not reduce muscle mass, as is our concern with Ozympic and Mugovian, some of the others.
0:49:06 So we’ll have to see. But here’s a question I posed to most doctors when I talked to them about
0:49:13 this topic. Have you seen anybody come off of Ozympic and keep the weight off just from diet
0:49:19 and exercise? I’d like to see that be a nice population of people before I recommended too
0:49:26 broadly. And final question, just something personal. Someone at a high-pressure job,
0:49:30 you’re obviously very ambitious. Any thoughts on being a good partner when you’re trying to
0:49:33 have the kind of impact you’re having, the demands of places on your professional life?
0:49:41 Yeah. I think what we’ve seen is that the happiest communities in America are those with
0:49:51 strong social networks. And when you look at the Maslach work at Berkeley on workplace satisfaction,
0:49:57 one of the greatest drivers of happiness at the workplace is the amount of positive feedback you
0:50:04 get directly as a result of your time in services. And we’re learning now in an amazing study that
0:50:12 blew me away as a doctor, that when you energetically and enthusiastically compliment someone else,
0:50:19 then you actually increase your own endorphin levels at a level higher than that of an anti-depressant.
0:50:25 Love that. Be generous. That’s the best medicine doctor. Marty McCary is a renowned surgeon and
0:50:30 professor at Johns Hopkins Public Health Expert and leading advocate for healthcare transparency
0:50:36 and a two-time New York Times bestselling author. His latest book, Blind Spots, when medicine gets
0:50:42 it wrong and what it means for our health is out now, he joins us from New York City. Doctor,
0:50:46 I really enjoyed this conversation. Thanks for your good work. I think it’s having a real impact.
0:50:48 Thanks so much, Scott. Good talking with you. I appreciate it.
0:51:02 As a river of happiness, you need to find your tribe. I went to this birthday party this weekend
0:51:08 for some friends from college. About eight of us met when we pledged ZBT fraternity
0:51:15 Alpha Root chapter at UCLA. And I think if you’re a young person or even an older person that wakes
0:51:19 up and realizes you’re one of the men, one of the one in seven men that doesn’t have a single friend
0:51:25 or one in the four men that can’t have a best friend, you have to find your posse. And I don’t
0:51:34 care if it’s a church group, a sports league, a non-profit, whatever it is, temple, a fraternity,
0:51:43 a sorority, a club at work that gets together on a regular basis, seek out a group of virtuous men
0:51:48 who are intelligent and express friendship, try and get together with them. I don’t care,
0:51:56 it’s poker and start finding your tribe because here’s the thing. By the time you get to my age,
0:52:03 all you have literally is love and camaraderie for these people. And I went to this party Saturday
0:52:10 night, I met all other kids and all other wives and it’s literally this tide pool, this epicenter,
0:52:19 this volcano of achievement, prosperity, love, and friendship. And all the bullshit just sort
0:52:26 of melts away and you feel loved and you get so much reward from these friendships and we’ve
0:52:30 done a really good job. We go every year to Las Vegas for the last or every other year, I should
0:52:37 say for the last 40 years, we know each other all so well. And there’s something about investing
0:52:42 in relationships when you’re young, it’s like compound interest and that is you wake up one day
0:52:48 and you just have a mess of great friends that bring you enormous reward, enormous comfort,
0:52:54 but it starts with a tribe and especially young men, I worry that we’re developing into a different
0:52:59 species where we’re comfortable being alone, sequestering from society, becoming much more
0:53:04 prone to nationalists or misogynist content, we start blaming immigrants, start blaming women,
0:53:09 start getting angry, start being susceptible to the manosphere, which is nothing but thinly veiled
0:53:16 weirdness. It’s effort, it’s work, find that group, lean into it, be generous, be open to
0:53:23 friendships, you are part of a tribe, start building yours. This episode was produced by
0:53:27 Jennifer Sanchez and Caroline Shagren and Drew Burroughs as our technical director.
0:53:31 Thank you for listening to The Prof. G Pod from the Vox Media Podcast Network. We will catch you on
0:53:37 Saturday for No Mercy, No Mouse as read by George Hawn and please follow our Prof. G Markets pod
0:54:02 wherever you get your pods for new episodes every Monday and Thursday.

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0:01:47 Welcome to the PropG Pods Office Hours.
0:01:49 This is the part of the show where we answer questions about business,
0:01:53 big tech, entrepreneurship, and whatever else is on your mind.
0:01:58 If you’d like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours@propgmedia.com.
0:02:01 Again, that’s officehours@propgmedia.com.
0:02:02 So with that, first question.
0:02:08 Hey Professor, Jack from Austin, Texas here with a question about professional sports and cable cutting.
0:02:13 I can tell you that someone in their mid-20s is going to speak for my whole generation here.
0:02:17 TV and the NFL Sunday ticket and everything cost over $1,000 a year just to watch the games
0:02:20 that we want to watch, and none of us have cable.
0:02:25 It’s all subsidized by our parents and has our parents age out and cut the cord themselves,
0:02:27 or unfortunately pass on.
0:02:30 Do you think that these leagues are in for a rude awakening,
0:02:34 especially when I can tell you right now that tech savvy of us in our 20s,
0:02:39 there’s lots of free alternatives out there on the internet, and I hope no one from the FTC
0:02:43 is going to come for me for that one, but what do you think that these leagues are going to do?
0:02:44 Thanks.
0:02:46 It’s a really thoughtful question, Jack from Austin, Texas.
0:02:50 First off, congratulations being in Austin, probably the hottest city in the world right now,
0:02:53 and I don’t mean weather-wise, I mean just everybody’s there, everyone’s moving there.
0:02:55 By the way, it’s the podcast epicenter.
0:02:55 I didn’t know that.
0:02:57 Isn’t that strange?
0:02:58 I love going to Austin.
0:03:00 Amazing how I can turn everything to me.
0:03:03 Is that the cable industry is in full throttle structural decline.
0:03:08 A Pew Research Center survey shows that fewer Americans are watching TV through cable or satellite,
0:03:12 dropping from 76 in 2015 to just 56% in 2021.
0:03:13 Think about that.
0:03:15 Just in six years, it’s declined by 26%.
0:03:20 According to New York Times, now around 5 million people abandon cable TV every year.
0:03:20 Think about that.
0:03:25 Leaving about 75 million Americans still in the traditional TV world, but it’s losing.
0:03:26 What is that?
0:03:27 It’s declining.
0:03:28 What is that?
0:03:30 About 7% of its base every year?
0:03:34 I mean, that is a business in serious structural decline.
0:03:36 Here’s the joke.
0:03:41 The cable person doesn’t want to let the advertiser know who they’re reaching or not reaching.
0:03:47 Their job is to keep you purposely stupid, such that you will advertise to 200,000 people
0:03:53 on Fareed Zakharian GPS 360, which in my opinion is the best show in politics.
0:03:56 I think Fareed is probably the clearest blue flame thinker on geopolitics.
0:04:01 Anyways, because they want you to pay for the 200,000 people, even if maybe only about
0:04:05 1,000 are really interested in opioid-induced constipation medication.
0:04:08 So they had an incentive to keep you in the dark.
0:04:13 Meanwhile, commercials also kill it because they interrupt the storytelling.
0:04:18 In addition, the clock kills broadcast or cable because some days,
0:04:22 A.C.’s 360 with Anderson Cooper should be three hours.
0:04:23 Some days, it should be one hour.
0:04:26 And instead, it’s got to be exactly two hours.
0:04:30 You have these big folks have moved in and said, “Okay, we have deeper pockets.”
0:04:33 And slowly but surely, we’re going to take over original script of television
0:04:36 and we’re going to have storytelling that’s uninterrupted and really high production
0:04:38 volumes and just sheer tonnage.
0:04:40 There is something always to watch on Netflix.
0:04:45 Anyways, and also the only people watching TV are ridiculously fucking old.
0:04:47 You want to know something crazy?
0:04:53 The median age of TV viewers on MSNBC is 70.
0:04:58 The median age on CNN is 65.
0:05:00 I mean, that’s fucking crazy.
0:05:05 On MTV, that hip young place, it’s 52 years old.
0:05:09 And I have here, my producer said, “Do you watch live television?”
0:05:10 I don’t.
0:05:13 I watch so little of it and I love CNN.
0:05:14 Now, what’s happening here?
0:05:15 Back to your question.
0:05:22 Effectively, by offering free distribution, which is effectively what net neutrality does,
0:05:28 it says to Netflix, “You might be taking a billions of dollars of infrastructure investment,
0:05:31 but we’re going to offer it to you effectively for free.
0:05:36 Whereas the cable companies invested billions of dollars to put a cable or a wire,
0:05:41 a fiber optic wire into your house, and then they got rights to basically command higher
0:05:43 and higher fees through the cable bundle.
0:05:46 We woke up and realized you were paying $200.
0:05:52 So you could have Bravo 5, Bravo 6, and whatever it was, Home and Cooking Channel 5,
0:05:55 and they had the best business ever.
0:06:01 And then in comes the internet and laws that say you’ve got to offer internet over that cable.
0:06:06 And any content producer has access to the full stack and can pump as much through as they want.
0:06:11 Essentially, they can now spend more money on content and they have deeper pockets.
0:06:16 So just as they conquered original scripted television with just massive investments,
0:06:21 I bet Netflix this year will spend more money on original scripted programming than all of cable
0:06:23 and all of TV did in the entire decade of the ’80s.
0:06:28 You have, now they’re going after the next thing, they’re going after sports.
0:06:31 So the price is going to come down for the consumer.
0:06:35 You’re not going to have this NFL ticket bullshit where you end up paying $100 or $200
0:06:37 for 12 games or whatever it is.
0:06:39 The price is going to come down for the consumer.
0:06:41 I mean, think about the model here.
0:06:45 I’m charging every household $200 such that I can pelt them with ads that I’m also charging for.
0:06:47 I mean, there’s no business like the cable business.
0:06:51 I think the big losers here are going to, again, be ad-supported cable
0:06:55 who spent a ton of money to buy these franchise live events
0:06:59 and are no longer going to be able to justify those payments
0:07:01 because more and more people are watching it for free.
0:07:05 I think HBO is going to start running CNN clips.
0:07:06 I don’t see why they wouldn’t.
0:07:09 Just a little bug that says CNN or you see a thing that says
0:07:11 Israel goes into Lebanon.
0:07:15 Click here for seven minutes and you’ll get the best seven minutes from
0:07:18 Anderson Cooper instead of having to wade through all the bullshit and the ads.
0:07:21 I think the leagues still have enough bidders
0:07:24 that they will register an increase in value.
0:07:30 And the guys who just get killed are the ones that were just printing money,
0:07:35 charging a lot of money to watch NBA games or the Super Bowl
0:07:36 and also running Pepsi ads all day.
0:07:38 Really thoughtful question.
0:07:39 I need to think this through.
0:07:41 Anyways, thanks, Jack, from Austin.
0:07:42 Question number two.
0:07:44 Hi, PropG.
0:07:48 This is Robin Collien from Land Down Under from Melbourne, Australia.
0:07:51 Big fan of the show and your crew jokes remain a central part of my daily routine.
0:07:55 As a part of the PropG tradition, let’s talk about me.
0:07:58 I’ve recently graduated from an English degree with honors
0:08:03 and alongside my coursework, I’ve built a media business around teaching literature/philosophy
0:08:08 on YouTube and through my newsletter, which is now sitting at over half a million followers.
0:08:12 And along the way, I’ve noticed that this is not how the humanities are traditionally marketed.
0:08:17 In the English faculty, it seems to be the case that most people are having a hard time
0:08:21 defining their value, leaving graduates with the same question.
0:08:25 How are the skills acquired in the humanities transferable after graduation?
0:08:29 More specifically, as an academic yourself, what do you think the future of a humanities
0:08:34 degree is and how should humanities graduates market themselves after graduation?
0:08:36 Thank you for all you do.
0:08:38 If you’re ever in Melbourne, drop me a line.
0:08:41 First off, congratulations on living in Melbourne.
0:08:47 You have clearly the core competence I would want to bestow on any person.
0:08:49 What I hope my boys can do, and I’m trying to figure out ways to do this,
0:08:54 in that core competence that survives, is directly reverse engineered to our competitive
0:08:56 advantages of species, which is cooperation.
0:08:59 But how do we cooperate by looking at each other and winking?
0:09:01 No, we cooperate through communication.
0:09:05 So storytellers are key to the species survival.
0:09:09 And by the way, the reason Mick Jagger at the age of 80 gets to sleep with 30-year-old
0:09:11 ballerinas is because he’s an amazing storyteller.
0:09:14 And we’re really drawn to great storytellers.
0:09:19 By the way, the greatest or the easiest example of how powerful storytelling is,
0:09:23 if you’re in the mating market, especially as a dude, and you can make someone laugh,
0:09:24 you’re going to procreate.
0:09:25 Here’s my impression of all women.
0:09:28 I’m laughing, I’m laughing, I’m naked.
0:09:30 That is storytelling.
0:09:34 If you can make someone laugh, you can get a job with them, you can be their friend,
0:09:35 or you can kiss them.
0:09:38 Storytelling is the core competence.
0:09:42 Jeff Bezos, Maya Angelou, Alex Karp at Palantir.
0:09:43 What is their core competence?
0:09:44 Is it technology?
0:09:45 Is it vision?
0:09:46 No, it’s fucking storytelling.
0:09:50 Read the 1997 letter, investor letter from Jeff Bezos.
0:09:51 And you just want to buy shares.
0:09:54 Watch Alex Karp on Bill Maher.
0:09:57 And you think, oh, I’ll buy shares, even though it’s trading at 227 times earnings.
0:09:58 Makes no fucking sense.
0:10:00 That company’s overvalued.
0:10:02 Storytelling is the core competence.
0:10:08 And your ability to weaponize and understand new mediums, and obviously you have a good
0:10:10 gift to gab, is just incredibly powerful.
0:10:13 So what would I hope for anyone in humanities?
0:10:19 Look at a sector that you think has some sort of relevance to relationships, or the markets,
0:10:23 or personal or family dynamics, and become a great storyteller.
0:10:27 And more importantly, once you figure out how to become a great communicator.
0:10:28 And by the way, there’s a ton of mediums.
0:10:30 I teach this in my class.
0:10:33 Pick a medium and commit to being the top 1% on that medium.
0:10:39 Texting, speaking to large crowds, PowerPoint, TikTok, X, whatever the fuck it is.
0:10:43 Find a medium that means posts on medium for God’s sakes.
0:10:45 Writing books, writing short stories, writing articles.
0:10:50 You have to learn how to be a great communicator if you want a disproportionate amount of
0:10:53 opportunity, or be able to produce it, if you will.
0:10:54 Shape it.
0:10:55 That’s what my producers do.
0:10:57 That’s what the people behind the camera here are doing, is they’re great storytellers,
0:10:59 and they know how to craft the story.
0:11:04 I’m just the person like, I’m just a quote unquote, I don’t know, puppet, the marionette here.
0:11:07 But that is the core competence, and you have learned how to do it.
0:11:08 So what do you want to do?
0:11:11 You want to figure out something you’re super interested in that you’re great at.
0:11:15 Do you understand evolutionary biology better than anyone else in the world?
0:11:18 Do you understand the intersection between human capital and the workplace?
0:11:21 Do you understand organizational behavior or whatever it is?
0:11:26 Do you understand the correlation or the relevance of the gods or Greece or ancient
0:11:28 Greece or the Stoics?
0:11:33 Also, also, I do think academia is underrated as a career.
0:11:37 Going, if you’re a really good student and you want to be kind of the best in the world at a
0:11:42 very narrow thing, and also you’re a bit of a lone wolf, I think academics are generally
0:11:44 speaking, not very social, and they like to do research.
0:11:49 I think academia is a fantastic profession, a ton of flexibility.
0:11:51 You get to be on campus, which is a wonderful place.
0:11:54 You get to be around young people, which is inspiring.
0:11:58 And your job is just to damage the muscle in between the ears of a young person,
0:11:59 such that it grows back stronger.
0:12:00 I think it is a noble mission.
0:12:03 It can also be quite good money if you’re really good at it.
0:12:06 Now, the business school is a little bit different, but I bet the top 10%
0:12:11 faculty at the business school make seven figures plus a year.
0:12:13 If they’re not, they shouldn’t be at a business school, in my view.
0:12:16 If you can’t make a shit ton of money at an elite business school outside of the business
0:12:19 school, it probably means you shouldn’t be teaching.
0:12:22 Can’t wait for the feedback I get on that one.
0:12:28 But anyways, I do think that professional relevance outside of the classroom is key
0:12:30 to being a great professor.
0:12:31 Is that fair?
0:12:32 Probably not.
0:12:37 Anyways, the humanities, there’s always a way to make money on storytelling.
0:12:38 You got to figure out your medium.
0:12:40 Academia is a great career.
0:12:43 I wouldn’t be scared off by the humanities.
0:12:48 And you are a fantastic role model for your colleagues, whatever they go into.
0:12:51 If you don’t have the ability to communicate it in a compelling fashion,
0:12:55 whether it’s to your students, to your readers, to subscribers of magazines,
0:12:59 to book buyers, to people on TikTok, you’re not going to get very far,
0:13:01 regardless of how knowledgeable you are.
0:13:02 It’s about storytelling.
0:13:04 Really appreciate the question.
0:13:07 We have one quick break before our final question.
0:13:08 Stay with us.
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0:16:07 Welcome back, question number three.
0:16:09 Hi, Scott. Thomas here from Belgium.
0:16:11 Long time listener of the podcast.
0:16:14 I think you’re a great role model for young men,
0:16:16 and I love your views on politics and business.
0:16:18 Here’s my question.
0:16:21 My wife and I, both from Europe,
0:16:23 moved to the United States four years ago.
0:16:27 It turned out to be the best financial decision of our lives.
0:16:31 We moved almost with no savings, starting in Austin, Texas.
0:16:35 We built a better world, bought a home,
0:16:38 and we went from a visa to a Greek art.
0:16:41 Now we’re living in New York City,
0:16:44 enjoying everything this big city has to offer.
0:16:47 While we’re planning to move to Europe,
0:16:49 at some point, to be closer to our family,
0:16:53 we now have the option to potentially become U.S. citizens.
0:16:57 I’m curious, giving the tax implications
0:16:59 and the potential lifelong impact,
0:17:03 do you think it’s worth pursuing U.S. citizenship
0:17:05 as a hedge for world economy
0:17:07 and the benefits of a second passport?
0:17:09 Thank you for the question.
0:17:12 Thomas from Belgium.
0:17:13 First off, congratulations,
0:17:16 and what makes America great
0:17:17 is the really impressive people
0:17:18 who are willing to take risks
0:17:19 continue to come to the United States.
0:17:22 That is the secret sauce,
0:17:24 and I’m glad that it’s paying off for you.
0:17:24 I’ve always said,
0:17:26 “I’ve basically been molesting the Earth
0:17:27 for the last 30 years.”
0:17:28 What does that mean?
0:17:30 I was always in the services business,
0:17:31 meaning that if the CMO of Samsung
0:17:35 wanted me to come present to management,
0:17:36 I’d be like, “Sure, I can do that.”
0:17:38 And I’d be on a plane the next day for Seoul,
0:17:39 or Audi was my biggest client
0:17:42 when I started a strategy from the age of 26
0:17:43 in my secondary business school.
0:17:44 And when Audi would call and say,
0:17:46 “Hey, would you like to come talk to me?”
0:17:47 Of course I do, so I get on a plane
0:17:49 for fucking Ingolstadt, Germany.
0:17:52 By the way, Ingolstadt should not be on your list of cities
0:17:53 to see before you die.
0:17:56 And it took a huge toll on me personally, professionally.
0:17:57 Anyway, I don’t know why I’m going there,
0:18:02 but I feel as if I have a decent sense of different cities
0:18:03 in different countries around the world.
0:18:05 And my reductive analysis,
0:18:06 what it all distills down to,
0:18:08 my assessment of the world,
0:18:12 the US is the best place to make money,
0:18:14 Europe is the best place to spend it.
0:18:17 So while you’re still trying to make progress,
0:18:18 you’re in your earning years,
0:18:21 you’re in your making years,
0:18:22 not your spending years,
0:18:24 I say don’t leave the US.
0:18:25 Now as it relates to being a citizen,
0:18:26 there’s some real benefits.
0:18:29 And I immediately want to have my chest and say,
0:18:32 “Congratulations,” and having US citizenship
0:18:34 is an unbelievable asset, go for it.
0:18:36 There are some benefits,
0:18:37 voting rights and political participation,
0:18:38 according to Pew Research,
0:18:41 naturalized citizens make up about 10% of the US electorate.
0:18:44 Unrestricted right to live and work in the US,
0:18:45 you can’t underestimate that.
0:18:46 I know so many people.
0:18:49 The INS, our immigration department,
0:18:52 quite frankly, is just exceptionally crude and aggressive
0:18:54 and makes a lot of people’s lives
0:18:56 who are trying to do it legally miserable.
0:18:58 It does not do a good job
0:19:00 of rewarding the people trying to play by the rules
0:19:02 and does a totally ineffective job
0:19:03 of undocumented workers
0:19:06 who, by the way, are the most profitable part of immigration,
0:19:08 but that’s a longer talk show.
0:19:12 I wrote my entire post on Omar Sinomalis last week on immigration.
0:19:13 Why don’t we solve the immigration problem?
0:19:16 Because it’s too goddamn profitable.
0:19:18 Anyways, what would I do?
0:19:20 Look, I’m not going to tell you
0:19:22 not to become an American citizen.
0:19:23 What I would suggest though,
0:19:25 there’s one big asterisk here,
0:19:27 and that is the thing about the US
0:19:30 is that US taxes will follow you everywhere
0:19:31 for the rest of your life.
0:19:32 What do I mean by that?
0:19:35 Say your wife is German
0:19:36 and you become a US citizen,
0:19:37 but she does not,
0:19:39 or say you managed to figure out a way to stay
0:19:44 on resident non-dom visas or whatever in the US
0:19:46 and you decide to move to Dubai one day
0:19:47 where there are no taxes.
0:19:49 If I move to Dubai,
0:19:52 I continue to pay US federal income tax.
0:19:55 You might not as bells and citizens.
0:19:56 So what am I suggesting?
0:19:58 You are the secret sauce to our success.
0:20:00 I’m not going to get in the way
0:20:02 or discourage you from becoming an American citizen.
0:20:03 The only thing I will say
0:20:06 is that there are sometimes some benefits
0:20:08 to not being a US citizen
0:20:11 should you decide to move to a Hong Kong or a Dubai
0:20:14 that has 0% tax rate to take advantage
0:20:16 of those types of low tax rates.
0:20:18 Because once you’re a US citizen,
0:20:21 in exchange for the unbelievable prosperity rule of law
0:20:24 and great nightlife that the US offers,
0:20:26 US taxes are going to follow you everywhere.
0:20:28 I feel really shitty pointing this out
0:20:31 because the US needs a strong tax base,
0:20:34 but I would probably just check in
0:20:37 with a talented tax person before
0:20:41 both of you hit the bid and become citizens.
0:20:43 Having said that, there is no passport.
0:20:46 There is no citizenship that is more powerful
0:20:48 and is more noble and does more for the world
0:20:50 than American citizenship.
0:20:52 That’s all for this episode.
0:20:54 If you’d like to submit a question,
0:20:55 please email a voice recording
0:20:57 to OfficeHours@ProptingMedia.com.
0:21:00 Again, that’s OfficeHours@ProptingMedia.com.
0:21:13 This episode was produced by Caroline Shagrin.
0:21:16 Jennifer Sanchez is our Associate Producer
0:21:18 and Drew Burroughs is our Technical Director.
0:21:19 Thank you for listening to the Prop G Pod
0:21:21 from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
0:21:24 We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy, No Mouse,
0:21:25 as read by George Hahn.
0:21:28 And please follow our Prop G Markets Pod
0:21:30 wherever you get your pods for new episodes
0:21:31 every Monday and Thursday.

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0:00:38 Will the VP debate move the needle
0:00:40 in what’s shaping up to be a neck and neck election?
0:00:42 You never know in advance what will be the thing
0:00:44 that matters and the thing that doesn’t matter,
0:00:48 but Donald Trump will be almost 80,
0:00:52 and J.D. Vance will be one cheeseburger away
0:00:54 from the presidency should they win.
0:00:57 I’m Preet Bharara, and this week,
0:00:58 the Atlantic magazine’s David Frum
0:01:01 joins me on my podcast, Stay Tuned with Preet,
0:01:04 to break down what happened at the debate.
0:01:05 The episode is out now.
0:01:07 Search and follow Stay Tuned with Preet
0:01:09 wherever you get your podcasts.
0:01:14 – Hi everyone, I’m Brene Brown,
0:01:16 and I’d love to tell you about a new series
0:01:18 that’s launching on Unlocking Us.
0:01:21 I’m calling it the On My Heart and Mind podcast series.
0:01:23 It’s gonna include conversations
0:01:24 with some of my favorite writers
0:01:26 on topics ranging from revolutionary love
0:01:30 and gun ownership to menopause and finding joy and grief.
0:01:31 The first episode is available now,
0:01:33 and I can’t wait for you to hear it.
0:01:35 All new episodes will drop on Wednesdays,
0:01:36 and you can get them as soon as they’re out
0:01:38 by following Unlocking Us on Apple
0:01:40 or wherever you listen to your podcasts.
0:01:45 – Welcome to Raging Moderates, I’m Scott Galloway.
0:01:47 – And I’m Jessica Tarlove.
0:01:48 – Jessica, how was your weekend?
0:01:50 – It was glorious.
0:01:52 Weather was amazing in New York.
0:01:53 – Really? – So, you know how,
0:01:55 like in London, like the city comes alive,
0:01:57 especially when you’re not supposed to get good weather
0:02:00 at this point, it was like 70 and sunny.
0:02:03 And how was your, you’re not home?
0:02:05 – No, I’m in– – Clearly looks like.
0:02:08 – Yeah, I’m in Los Angeles at my favorite hotel,
0:02:09 the Bear Leaves Hotel.
0:02:11 I just took off my pink robe for you.
0:02:13 – Oh. – And, yeah,
0:02:15 I had a really nice, I have a nice weekend.
0:02:18 I went to two of my closest friends,
0:02:21 my roommates, my sophomore year in the room of the ’80s,
0:02:23 which we branded one of the rooms,
0:02:25 and our fraternity had their 60th
0:02:29 and like tons of kids and grown kids.
0:02:31 It was really, really nice.
0:02:33 And then I went and saw my dad,
0:02:34 which is my dad’s at that point where that’s,
0:02:37 that’s kind of rough, but I did that.
0:02:42 And now I’m back and I’m gonna do this at Oh Dark 100 Hours.
0:02:43 And then at one o’clock, I’m gonna go down
0:02:46 and I’m gonna order a club sandwich,
0:02:48 put on big, big dark sunglasses,
0:02:50 put an unlit cigarette in my mouth,
0:02:51 and every woman that walks by me,
0:02:53 I’m gonna scream, “Jackie, marry me.
0:02:54 “I make you very happy woman.”
0:02:59 That’s a jacket, that’s a Aristotle Onassis reference.
0:03:01 Jessica, it’s one of my go-to lines.
0:03:03 – Oh, I hadn’t heard it before,
0:03:05 so the spark is still alive here.
0:03:06 – Very much. – Since we’re new
0:03:07 to each other, yeah.
0:03:09 – Very much, and it’s kind of sad they recognize me.
0:03:12 I’m turning into a much less wealthy version
0:03:13 of Howard Hughes here.
0:03:15 They’re like, “Hello, Mr. Galloway, and how are you?”
0:03:18 And they talk to me like I’m a very old man.
0:03:23 Anyways, today we are talking about the final stretch
0:03:25 of the campaign, Liz Cheney campaigns for Harris
0:03:27 and Elon Musk rallies for Trump.
0:03:32 Melania’s book tour, that’s a snoozer.
0:03:34 And finally, we reflect on the year it’s been
0:03:37 since the October 7th Hamas attack.
0:03:39 All right, we’re less than a month out from election day,
0:03:41 and the October surprises are rolling in.
0:03:44 Last week, special counsel, Jack Smith,
0:03:47 dropped a 165-page filing detailing Trump’s
0:03:51 alleged desperate efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
0:03:54 According to the document, Trump told a family member
0:03:57 just days before January 6th that it doesn’t matter
0:04:01 if you win or lost, you still have to fight like hell.
0:04:03 The filing also claims Trump knew his core claims
0:04:05 wouldn’t hold up, but pressed on anyways.
0:04:07 Jess, what do you make of this?
0:04:09 Could this really, could this have an impact,
0:04:13 or is it just, I don’t know, is it a lot of jazz hands here?
0:04:16 – Well, I think that there’s something more important
0:04:19 afoot than whether it has an impact or not.
0:04:22 And that’s that there’s 165 pages
0:04:25 of available information now about how Donald Trump
0:04:27 as a private citizen, so that’s what Jack Smith
0:04:32 had to do with this post-Supreme Court immunity decision.
0:04:35 He had to show that this was a criminal plot
0:04:39 to overturn the election by a private citizen
0:04:42 acting as such, using private lawyers,
0:04:45 using private money, et cetera.
0:04:50 And that’s meaningful for the American public,
0:04:53 even if it just goes in a time capsule for all of this
0:04:57 to really understand the breadth and depth
0:05:01 of the effort to overturn the election.
0:05:04 We’re all political animals, some of us more than others.
0:05:07 So yes, could it have an electoral effect?
0:05:10 I think that that is linked to, you know,
0:05:12 when we start talking about Liz Cheney being out there
0:05:14 and campaigning in the Adam Kinzinger’s of the world.
0:05:18 And this undecided voter or potential swing voter
0:05:22 where protecting democracy is their number one priority.
0:05:25 You know, these primarily women, suburban women
0:05:27 that are being interviewed saying, you know,
0:05:30 I don’t agree with Kamala Harris’s policy positions,
0:05:35 but I want to be on the side of protecting the constitution.
0:05:36 So I think it matters in that sense.
0:05:39 But this is, it feels so much larger than what happens
0:05:41 on November 5th to me.
0:05:44 And when you look at this filing
0:05:47 and some of my colleagues said, you know,
0:05:48 well, we already knew all of this.
0:05:52 And then I started rattling off all of this new information
0:05:53 that was in this filing.
0:05:55 And they said, oh, well, it’s connected
0:05:57 to the spirit of what I knew.
0:05:59 Well, that’s really different, right?
0:06:01 People don’t remember the spirit of things.
0:06:03 They remember the anecdotes,
0:06:07 like the Michigan GOP official who Rhonda McDaniel called
0:06:10 for Trump to try to get him to do the fake election scheme.
0:06:13 And he said, that’s fucking nuts.
0:06:15 People are gonna remember that.
0:06:17 Or that Donald Trump said about, you know,
0:06:19 that they wanted to hang Mike Pence.
0:06:22 That he said, so what?
0:06:25 And I feel like that is going to stick
0:06:29 in the national consciousness for a lot longer
0:06:31 than the outcome of this election.
0:06:33 What’d you make of it?
0:06:35 – I’m of two minds on it because I agree with you
0:06:39 that reminding, just saying, just FYI folks,
0:06:43 just remember as you head into the voting booth,
0:06:45 this is the guy who tried to obstruct
0:06:47 the peaceful transfer of power,
0:06:48 which is kind of job one.
0:06:50 If you’re trying to hold up our democracy,
0:06:52 every other president, even when it’s been close
0:06:56 with Gore or Clinton, they did concede
0:06:58 and they showed up at the inaugurations
0:06:59 and they facilitated.
0:07:01 This was like, there were certain things we thought
0:07:05 were just always gonna happen that we took for granted.
0:07:08 And he still has yet to concede the election.
0:07:11 And I think that it’s important to remind people
0:07:14 that remember this, this should not be normalized.
0:07:17 This was outrageous, unprecedented behavior.
0:07:19 And some of the stuff is really shocking.
0:07:22 At the same time, I was pissed off.
0:07:27 I mean, physically angry at Comey when he decided,
0:07:31 hey, look at me a few weeks before the election
0:07:32 and said that he was, you know,
0:07:35 going after Hillary’s emails or indicting her.
0:07:38 To me, that just said, I need to be in the news
0:07:40 and I have some weird perverted version
0:07:41 of what it means to be a leader
0:07:45 and it means doing stuff without any care for the political.
0:07:47 I mean, there’s just no way around it.
0:07:50 If you do something right now, it’s political.
0:07:54 The political calculation has to come into the calculation.
0:07:57 So I think the criticism from Republicans
0:07:59 that this seems very politically motivated
0:08:00 given the timing, I think that’s fair,
0:08:03 which also leads to another level of anger.
0:08:05 There’s a lot of floors on the elevator stop
0:08:06 of the anger for Scott.
0:08:09 – Is that an LA feature or you always have them in the floor?
0:08:10 – No, that follows me everywhere.
0:08:13 That’s carry-on luggage that’s somewhere in my brain
0:08:15 that comes with me everywhere.
0:08:16 I think I inherited that from my father.
0:08:19 Anyways, I have a tough one with this.
0:08:21 I think that, you know, people say it was different
0:08:23 with Comey, there was nothing there,
0:08:25 there’s a there there here.
0:08:26 The other thing I’m fucking angry about, Jess,
0:08:29 is how on earth did they wait three years
0:08:31 to do all this shit?
0:08:33 He was able to delay all the cases.
0:08:36 He was able to claim political, you know,
0:08:40 prosecution that no one else has been subject to
0:08:42 because, you know, our guys, if you will,
0:08:45 if you think of the people that are trying to highlight
0:08:47 some of Trump’s shortcomings,
0:08:49 they didn’t bring these cases to three years.
0:08:52 It strikes me as just incredibly democratic
0:08:54 in the sense that the Democrats have a habit
0:08:57 of being right and ineffective.
0:08:58 What do you think about the timing of all of this?
0:08:59 And do you think that Trump,
0:09:01 do you think Trump’s people are just gonna say
0:09:03 another example of how they are trying
0:09:04 to steal the election again?
0:09:09 – Well, definitely, ’cause they only have one thing to say,
0:09:12 and it’s, this is lawfare, and I’m a victim.
0:09:15 And that works for a lot of people.
0:09:17 But I do think that this is different.
0:09:21 So I wanna be in like 50% agreement with you
0:09:23 about Merrick Garland,
0:09:26 and that this should have been all gas, no breaks.
0:09:30 The second that Joe Biden was in the White House,
0:09:34 everyone was confirmed, this process should have begun.
0:09:37 And it started a couple of years too late.
0:09:39 So, and, you know, it has taken a while
0:09:41 and there are a lot of cases involved.
0:09:43 And it looks like the Clarice Cud case,
0:09:46 the Mar-a-Lago case, who knows when that moves forward
0:09:49 because, you know, Trump got his bestie
0:09:53 when they drew straws on that one in Eileen Cannon
0:09:54 down in Florida.
0:09:59 But I see this as amazingly distinct
0:10:02 from what happened with Jim Comey
0:10:05 and coming out 11 days before the election
0:10:08 with nothing to say,
0:10:12 besides we considered something and decided against it.
0:10:15 And Jim Comey has revealed himself,
0:10:19 and I think a lot of these now-never Trump Republicans
0:10:21 suffer from the self-absorption
0:10:24 that goes so beyond what they purport to be about, right?
0:10:28 They say, “I value country over party,
0:10:30 but really I just want to hear myself talk
0:10:32 or I’ve got a bunch of books coming.”
0:10:35 And Liz Cheney doesn’t do it like that.
0:10:39 She actually seems like the one who is completely dedicated
0:10:41 to making sure that we preserve our democracy.
0:10:45 And who knows if Kamala wins in 2024,
0:10:47 I don’t know where Liz Cheney will be in 2028
0:10:50 if there’s a normie Republican on the other side.
0:10:52 She’ll probably go back to her roots
0:10:54 because she actually believes in things
0:10:56 that the Republican party used to be about,
0:10:59 like small government and fiscal responsibility,
0:11:02 which is not a feature of the Trump agenda.
0:11:06 So Jim Comey did that for himself
0:11:07 and he had nothing to say,
0:11:11 but to just publicly crap on Hillary,
0:11:14 who was already running a deeply flawed campaign,
0:11:18 which we all know and have accepted at this point.
0:11:22 What’s different about the Jack Smith filing is, A,
0:11:24 it’s the continuation of something
0:11:27 that has been in the ether for over a year.
0:11:30 So it doesn’t violate the 60 day rule.
0:11:31 Not these are formal rules,
0:11:34 but the kind of code of conduct.
0:11:39 And Jack Smith has taken the hit from the Supreme Court,
0:11:41 waited out through this.
0:11:42 They slow rolled out that the Supreme Court
0:11:44 did everything that they could to make sure
0:11:46 that Trump would not have to deal with this
0:11:47 before the election.
0:11:50 Jack Smith, abided by all of that,
0:11:53 had to judge Chutkin to make sure
0:11:55 that she was still going on schedule,
0:11:56 no matter what,
0:11:59 that she wasn’t going to fall by the wayside
0:12:01 for some stupid reason.
0:12:02 Because the truth is,
0:12:04 this obviously isn’t going to trial in advance of this,
0:12:06 but there’s no reason that the wheels of justice
0:12:08 should stop turning
0:12:11 because people are going to vote on November 5th
0:12:14 for a case that was already open.
0:12:17 That has now been through two grand juries to boot.
0:12:22 So I think that people who are actually receptive
0:12:26 to hearing the facts about Donald Trump
0:12:27 and his legal cases,
0:12:29 and there is a whole subsection of people
0:12:30 who are not receptive to it.
0:12:32 So this doesn’t even matter.
0:12:36 But those who still have that little light on
0:12:37 where they can hear things,
0:12:41 deserve to know who it is
0:12:44 that is standing for election on November 5th,
0:12:47 the totality of that person.
0:12:51 And I don’t think that that counts as election interference.
0:12:53 I think that that counts again,
0:12:55 as justice doing its thing
0:12:58 and giving people the fullest picture
0:13:01 of an incredibly important decision.
0:13:04 And I don’t know if that satisfies your anger about it,
0:13:07 but I’ve given it a lot of thought
0:13:11 and tried to be as non-partisan as I can.
0:13:14 And I also, to your point about Democrats being losers
0:13:17 or ineffective, as you put it more nicely,
0:13:21 like this is actually us not being those kinds of losers.
0:13:25 This is not letting Merrick Garland get a hearing
0:13:27 before the election, like Mitch McConnell did,
0:13:31 just saying, no, we’re not gonna stand by
0:13:33 and not talk about this because of a norm
0:13:35 that you first of all invented
0:13:36 and is not being violated
0:13:39 because this was already an indictment that was out there.
0:13:40 – I think that’s well said.
0:13:43 The Harris campaign has already released an ad
0:13:44 using the story to their advantage.
0:13:45 Let’s have a listen.
0:13:47 – We fight like hell.
0:13:49 And if you don’t fight like hell,
0:13:51 you’re not gonna have a country anymore.
0:13:52 – New evidence about Donald Trump’s efforts
0:13:54 to overturn the 2020 election.
0:13:58 – This is bombshell after bombshell after bombshell.
0:14:01 – Trump was pressuring Pence to take action.
0:14:03 – Merrick Pence has betrayed
0:14:06 the United States of America.
0:14:08 – Trump looked at him and said only, so what?
0:14:13 Wow, that’s pretty dark, what do you think?
0:14:16 – I mean, it’s like a movie trailer, right?
0:14:17 Like when we used to go to movies
0:14:20 and you’d be like, oh, I wanna see that.
0:14:24 Which is the best that you could do for a filing, right?
0:14:27 To make something as exciting as that sounds.
0:14:29 I think that’s exactly the right thing.
0:14:30 And I mean, two things that play with this.
0:14:33 One, the Harris campaign has so much money
0:14:37 that they can make an ad about toilet paper if they want.
0:14:39 And it’s not gonna put a dent in the bank.
0:14:41 So why wouldn’t you cut ads on this?
0:14:45 And then add to that, the ad that they did
0:14:48 right after the debate when Walls asked J.D. Vance
0:14:51 if Donald Trump lost the 2020 election,
0:14:52 and he couldn’t answer.
0:14:55 So all of this is part of that bubble,
0:14:58 and I think it’s totally worth the dollars.
0:14:59 And I wanna put something to you
0:15:01 that I have been workshopping,
0:15:04 and this is my first public go of it.
0:15:08 The Trump campaign is not seemingly
0:15:11 making a real effort to win the election
0:15:13 when it comes to the mechanics of it,
0:15:16 like the get out the vote operation.
0:15:18 And people have been publicly decrying this.
0:15:20 Ronald McDaniels talked about it.
0:15:22 Other Republican officials,
0:15:23 Republicans have said in swing districts,
0:15:25 no one has canvassed.
0:15:27 I haven’t seen anyone knock on my doors.
0:15:29 They have Charlie Kirk in charge of it,
0:15:32 who’s a grifter of the highest order.
0:15:37 And marrying that up with what we know from this filing,
0:15:41 part of me feels like they don’t even really intend
0:15:44 to win in the genuine way.
0:15:47 That he’s going to say again, I won,
0:15:49 knowing full well that the recounts are gonna have to happen,
0:15:52 George is gonna have to hand count, et cetera.
0:15:54 And that was just kind of like this red flag
0:15:56 that went off to me this weekend
0:15:58 after looking at the Jack Smith filing,
0:16:01 and thinking, are these people actually playing to win,
0:16:03 or they’re playing to say they won?
0:16:07 – Wow, ’cause I actually think he is very,
0:16:09 well, he personally, there’s him,
0:16:11 there’s the campaign and how they’re going about it.
0:16:14 I would imagine that he desperately wants to win,
0:16:17 ’cause in my view, there’s a very decent chance
0:16:18 that one of these courts,
0:16:20 I mean, he has, I think, four juries
0:16:22 at some point coming for him.
0:16:23 And those, I looked at those jurisdictions
0:16:26 they have between, depending on the jurisdiction,
0:16:30 between a 70 and 90% conviction rate.
0:16:31 And the majority of the crimes,
0:16:32 except for the one in New York,
0:16:35 probably typically the sentencing guidelines
0:16:38 would probably offer up some sort of jail term.
0:16:39 Now, a guy that age, the president,
0:16:41 they might say, just stay out of politics,
0:16:42 we’re gonna put an ankle in on you,
0:16:45 hang out at your golf course,
0:16:47 have Melania and porn star swing by,
0:16:49 he still could, he still will probably,
0:16:50 could probably figure out a way
0:16:52 to come to some sort of accommodation M and I’s life,
0:16:53 but that’s not gonna be pleasant.
0:16:58 And if a 78-year-old man, obese man is sentenced to prison,
0:17:01 any time at all, is probably a death sentence.
0:17:02 He’s not gonna come out,
0:17:04 he may never leave, he may leave feet first.
0:17:05 And when he comes out,
0:17:08 I think he’d be a dramatically changed person.
0:17:10 So I would think he’s exceptionally,
0:17:13 genuinely all in on winning.
0:17:14 I wonder if the campaign,
0:17:16 what you’re describing to me,
0:17:18 quite frankly, is a little bit of incompetence.
0:17:19 They don’t have the ground game
0:17:21 that previous campaigns have had.
0:17:22 The other question, or the question I would have for you
0:17:24 is I think you brought up something that’s kind of interesting
0:17:25 and that is money.
0:17:28 Vice President Harris has raised so much money.
0:17:30 Where does that come in?
0:17:32 Is it just ads, or is it a get out?
0:17:33 Is it get out the vote?
0:17:35 Is it turnout?
0:17:36 Other than just more ads,
0:17:38 I would have thought that basically every news station
0:17:41 that has people who are 95 watching it
0:17:43 has already sold out all their ads.
0:17:44 Where else does the money help?
0:17:46 – Yeah, it’s definitely the ground game.
0:17:50 And she is supporting down ballot races
0:17:52 at unprecedented levels,
0:17:55 transferring things like $25 million to the DNC
0:17:58 to make sure that we can retake the house.
0:17:59 Everyone is even sharing.
0:18:01 You have Gavin Newsom writing to you.
0:18:05 Like, can you chip in for Bob Casey?
0:18:08 So it’s going to all sorts of down ballot races.
0:18:09 Get out the vote.
0:18:13 Legal teams that are going to have to deal with recounts,
0:18:17 making sure everything is free and fair in the aftermath,
0:18:19 you know, paying people.
0:18:21 And they have a huge apparatus.
0:18:25 I mean, this is massive what they have going.
0:18:28 And I think you’re probably right
0:18:31 that it is more incompetence than anything.
0:18:34 But they do have smart people like a Suzy Wiles,
0:18:39 who’s one of his, I guess, co-chair of the campaign,
0:18:40 who knows how to win elections.
0:18:42 – It’s supposed to be very smart.
0:18:43 – Very smart.
0:18:46 And she’s not screaming about this.
0:18:50 But I think in a deadlocked election
0:18:53 where no one reasonable is saying
0:18:55 it’s going to be a landslide in either direction,
0:18:58 odds are we’re going to go back down to the margins
0:19:01 that we had in 2020 or less.
0:19:06 Why wouldn’t you be preparing at the highest levels for that?
0:19:11 Which we know includes canvassing, door knocking,
0:19:14 texting, calling, all the things.
0:19:16 – We’ll be right back.
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0:21:40 Vice President Harris also made
0:21:42 some major media appearances this week,
0:21:44 including Caller Daddy, 60 Minutes to View,
0:21:47 Howard Stern, Stephen Colbert.
0:21:49 She’s clearly kind of got the message about getting out.
0:21:52 These aren’t exactly hard charging interviews.
0:21:54 60 Minutes asked some pretty good questions.
0:21:56 I thought she handled it pretty well.
0:21:59 What did you make of this media tour?
0:22:00 – Well, it’s not done yet.
0:22:04 So I’m interested in seeing all of it.
0:22:06 It’s weird, being a liberal that works
0:22:10 in conservative media, I’m wired a little bit differently.
0:22:14 So I want things or have an expectation for Democrats
0:22:15 that I think is a little bit unfair
0:22:17 because I work with people
0:22:20 who are like Fox interviewer bust.
0:22:23 And we should say Tim Walls went on Fox News Sunday
0:22:25 with Shannon Bream on Sunday and he did a pretty good job.
0:22:26 I thought Shannon did a great job too.
0:22:29 It was one of those where everybody got something,
0:22:33 which I feel like is the best case scenario for an interview.
0:22:38 But I feel like what the Harris campaign is doing
0:22:43 is rewriting how presidential campaigns are fought
0:22:45 and hopefully won with the media.
0:22:47 And they’re trying to set a precedent
0:22:48 for the future of this.
0:22:50 And I think that they’re doing it, A,
0:22:52 because this is the way that media is shifting
0:22:55 and B, because they have a candidate
0:22:58 that can’t do as well in the normal formats
0:23:01 that presidential candidates usually do.
0:23:04 I think that if she was like Biden was in 2020
0:23:07 or certainly in Obama or a Hillary
0:23:11 and snappy and concise and very sure of herself
0:23:15 in interviews, they’d be doing all the normal stuff,
0:23:18 plus as many of these podcasts as possible.
0:23:21 But they are making lemonade with the lemons
0:23:23 that they have and lemon is too harsh,
0:23:26 but you know, that’s how the phrase works
0:23:27 and doing something different.
0:23:30 And I listened to the Caller Daddy interview
0:23:31 with great interest.
0:23:34 I thought that the host, Alex Cooper, did a fantastic job.
0:23:38 And if you haven’t listened to it yet, at the beginning,
0:23:40 she gives a very thoughtful introduction
0:23:43 where she talks about how she has never wanted politics
0:23:45 to be part of Caller Daddy,
0:23:48 that the daddy gang is not interested in it.
0:23:52 She has five million downloads for each episode.
0:23:55 She’s the number one podcast for women 18 to 34,
0:23:58 the number two podcast in the world behind Joe Rogan.
0:24:01 So this is a massive audience that she doesn’t wanna tick off.
0:24:04 And she had actually turned down the presidential candidates
0:24:07 when it was Biden and Harris wanted to come on
0:24:09 in January, I think she said no.
0:24:12 And then as we got closer to the election,
0:24:14 and she realized also how many of the issues
0:24:16 that they talk about a lot, like mental health,
0:24:18 like women’s reproductive rights,
0:24:23 like sex and dating, abuse were themes of the election
0:24:27 that she should open her proverbial doors to the candidates.
0:24:29 And she also invited Donald Trump to join her
0:24:34 and he has not replied at this point.
0:24:37 Scott, what do you think about this new media tour?
0:24:39 – Well, it bodes well for Jessica Tarluff
0:24:42 and Scott Galloway and that podcasting is-
0:24:44 – You think we’re gonna be the next stop for Kamala?
0:24:45 – It won’t be this time
0:24:48 ’cause we didn’t get our shit together until like October
0:24:49 and launch this thing.
0:24:54 But I think we’re gonna be huge in the midterm, Jess.
0:24:56 Look, it really speaks to the medium.
0:25:00 And that is when you go on, when you look at 60 minutes,
0:25:01 you know, it’s highly produced.
0:25:03 You don’t really get a sense for them.
0:25:06 And podcasts, there’s just more nuance.
0:25:08 And they run longer
0:25:11 and it feels like you’re actually in the room
0:25:12 with them a bit.
0:25:14 And I think people really like the medium
0:25:16 for a long form interview.
0:25:18 Also, the medium has had a chance to kind of settle
0:25:22 and mature and you have a podcast like “Colored Daddy”
0:25:24 which just wouldn’t work in any other medium
0:25:27 where it begins from a place of kind of feminism
0:25:29 and female strength talking about issues
0:25:31 that women weren’t supposed to talk about
0:25:34 and has aggregated an enormous audience.
0:25:36 I mean, Alex Cooper, I think she just signed
0:25:38 a hundred or 125 million dollar contract
0:25:40 and she deserves every dollar.
0:25:42 And at the end of the day, what it really says
0:25:44 is this medium podcasting.
0:25:47 It’s growing faster than any other medium.
0:25:49 I think Joe Rogan reaches more people
0:25:52 than literally any TV show exponentially.
0:25:56 And the other thing about podcasting, I’ve noticed,
0:25:58 it really moves book sales.
0:26:02 So if we have an author come on ProveG or Markets,
0:26:03 it tangibly moves book sales.
0:26:05 And I would imagine people who buy books
0:26:08 also over index in terms of people who vote.
0:26:10 And some, this is, I think you’re just gonna see
0:26:12 more and more candidates on podcasts.
0:26:13 What do you think, Jess?
0:26:16 – Absolutely, I think that they are
0:26:19 for the sheer reach numbers also for the ability
0:26:21 to be able to frame their answers
0:26:26 in a way that they think is positive to their campaign.
0:26:30 I mean, the problem with quote, mainstream interviews
0:26:33 is you’re gonna have to deal with the framing of a question
0:26:34 in the way that you might not like.
0:26:37 And then you have one minute to respond
0:26:39 and you have to spend 30 seconds talking your way back
0:26:43 into the approach that you wanted to take.
0:26:46 And I think that’s why you see people
0:26:47 moving to other spaces.
0:26:48 And it’s not just Kamala doing it.
0:26:51 Obviously, Trump has been doing this,
0:26:53 Theo Vaughn, Lex Friedman.
0:26:55 I’m sure if Rogan said, come on here,
0:26:56 he would be there in a second.
0:26:58 I think Kamala should do Rogan.
0:27:01 He was gushing about how great her debate performance was.
0:27:03 Tell Rogan, I’ll give you half an hour.
0:27:05 Don’t try anything funny.
0:27:07 And I bet he would play by the rules,
0:27:10 understanding how important that moment is.
0:27:12 I mean, the Howard Stern interview,
0:27:16 his audience might not be as big as it used to be.
0:27:18 It’s still pretty large,
0:27:21 but there was the Hillary Clinton regretted
0:27:24 not going on before the election in 2016.
0:27:26 He gave her, it was the best interview
0:27:29 that anyone had ever heard Hillary do.
0:27:32 And she was able to do that because it was long form like that.
0:27:36 And I think one thing that they can do with these podcasts
0:27:38 is it doesn’t lend itself to clip culture in the same way,
0:27:40 which I think is so damaging.
0:27:42 And I realized that a lot of people consume me
0:27:44 from the five through clip culture.
0:27:47 And I am thankful for everyone who has found me that way.
0:27:49 – The clip culture has made Jessica Tarleff just so you know.
0:27:51 – I am just a clip. – You literally fill up there.
0:27:53 Yeah, but you’re all, that’s how I know.
0:27:55 You’re all over TikTok.
0:27:57 You are literally, you’re the clipster.
0:28:02 I mean, you are everywhere on social.
0:28:05 So back to the TV thing in terms of how mediums are changing.
0:28:06 I’m a narcissist.
0:28:10 I love seeing myself on the big screen.
0:28:13 And this week I was asked to go on Anderson Cooper 360.
0:28:15 And I love Anderson.
0:28:17 I think he’s a huge talent.
0:28:18 And I’m out here on the West coast.
0:28:21 They wanted me to come on and talk about Musk and Trump.
0:28:23 And that’s kind of in my wheelhouse a little bit.
0:28:25 And I thought, you know what?
0:28:29 I’m not gonna do it because I find TV so difficult.
0:28:33 It’s basically make a point that has a twist of phrase
0:28:36 or some sort of insight on something everyone else
0:28:38 has been covering for the last 48 hours.
0:28:40 Make it emphatically, make it crisply
0:28:42 and then shut the fuck up
0:28:44 ’cause we gotta go somewhere opioid-induced
0:28:46 constipation medication.
0:28:48 There’s just nothing thoughtful about it.
0:28:50 It’s so constricted by time.
0:28:54 And then if you look at the numbers, the reality is
0:28:56 very few people are watching television.
0:28:59 I mean, I used to jump at every attempt 10 or 15 years ago
0:29:02 when I was asked to do TV no matter where I was.
0:29:04 I’ve been like scrambling to figure out a way.
0:29:07 Now I’m, you know, I’d rather just hang by the pool.
0:29:09 I’d rather hang by the pool, Jess.
0:29:12 – Okay, well, counterpoints to that.
0:29:15 – Says a TV star. – 60 Minutes of 10 Million Viewers.
0:29:17 Says a TV Clipster.
0:29:21 But I would be willing to bet, I don’t know how much,
0:29:24 that you have a devout fan base
0:29:27 that came for your Morning Joe interview.
0:29:28 – Go on.
0:29:31 – Your Morning Joe interview about October 7th
0:29:33 and the Israeli response.
0:29:35 And you gave all the numbers
0:29:38 of how many fewer casualties there were
0:29:41 with the way that Netanyahu was executing this
0:29:44 versus what happened during World War II.
0:29:47 And I know, I had friends who were in Scott Galloway
0:29:49 people before that who saw it and said,
0:29:51 oh, I really like this guy.
0:29:54 So you have benefited from the television greatly
0:29:55 in the last year.
0:29:58 – So, first off, thank you for being generous.
0:30:02 The, there are a few shows.
0:30:03 It’s, everything comes down
0:30:05 to some form of genie coefficient or income inequality.
0:30:07 I don’t care if it’s actual income inequality
0:30:10 or mating on Tinder.
0:30:13 Everything’s becoming kind of a win or take most atmosphere.
0:30:14 There’s a small number of podcasts
0:30:16 making all of the money.
0:30:18 And it’s absolutely happening everywhere.
0:30:20 It’s also happening in TV.
0:30:25 Morning Joe, The View, Your Show, The Five.
0:30:30 There’s like a handful of numbers or a handful of shows
0:30:33 that are just kind of mopping up the entire audience
0:30:36 and everything else is in the long tail.
0:30:38 And it’s true in podcasting too.
0:30:40 Anyways, Jess, I hate to move on
0:30:44 ’cause I love talking about my favorite subject, me.
0:30:45 But let’s move on.
0:30:48 You had referenced earlier that Liz Cheney
0:30:50 is out there campaigning for.
0:30:51 Let’s, we have a clip for that.
0:30:52 Let’s take a listen.
0:30:56 – I tell you, I have never voted for a Democrat.
0:31:01 But this year, I am proudly casting my vote
0:31:03 for Vice President Kamala Harris.
0:31:08 – I just can’t figure out if, I mean, I get the theme.
0:31:10 I just can’t figure out if Representative Cheney
0:31:11 and Representative Kitzinger,
0:31:13 everyone already knows how they feel.
0:31:15 And if it has no impact.
0:31:18 I do think if I were the Harris campaign though,
0:31:19 and I think it’s coming,
0:31:21 I would have this ground invasion
0:31:24 leading up to the election.
0:31:27 And I guess we’re there the 30 days out
0:31:31 of literally the world’s best team of surrogates in history.
0:31:34 I think people from all walks of life
0:31:37 are really interested, famous athletes
0:31:40 you wouldn’t expect, former Republicans.
0:31:43 I think they could just, they’re just gonna roll out.
0:31:46 Oh, by the way, this person’s also
0:31:49 a very much supporting Vice President Harris.
0:31:50 I don’t know if celebrity endorsements work.
0:31:52 Celebrities, Democrats have always gotten more celebrities
0:31:53 than the Republican.
0:31:56 And I’m not sure it’s ever been shown to be that effective.
0:31:59 But I think they’re gonna just literally overwhelm
0:32:02 the airwaves with famous high Q,
0:32:06 whether it’s Taylor Swift or Bruce Springsteen.
0:32:08 And they’re gonna have Musk and Ted Nugent.
0:32:11 I don’t know if there’s that many kind of people
0:32:14 willing to go out there and talk about Trump right now.
0:32:15 Do you think the surrogates,
0:32:16 have you heard anything about the quote-unquote
0:32:18 the surrogate strategy?
0:32:20 Yeah, and I spoke with the campaign about it
0:32:25 and they, it’s very specialized and it’s very targeted.
0:32:28 And this group of disaffected Republicans,
0:32:31 like the Nikki Haley voters from the primary,
0:32:34 I don’t wanna say it’s the number one target
0:32:36 but among swing voters that they think
0:32:38 they have a shot with, it definitely is.
0:32:42 She is doing, I wanna make sure that I get this right.
0:32:47 She’s up 18 with white voters with a college degree.
0:32:52 Biden was plus nine, it’s a huge shift.
0:32:54 So Hillary won that by five or six,
0:32:58 then up to nine with Biden and now plus 18, if this holds,
0:33:03 which makes it the biggest swing voting block in the country.
0:33:08 And those voters are Liz Cheney voters,
0:33:11 or a lot of them are, they’re white suburban women
0:33:16 who can’t believe that their daddy’s Republican party
0:33:17 looks like this.
0:33:20 They care about abortion and the right to choose,
0:33:24 but they do care about this protecting democracy argument,
0:33:26 perhaps more than anything.
0:33:30 And I think it could be one of the biggest realignments
0:33:32 in our politics that we’ve seen.
0:33:35 So yes, the effort is big, there’s a ton of money behind it.
0:33:36 It’s very targeted.
0:33:38 I agree with you about the celebrities.
0:33:41 I think that will matter a lot less.
0:33:42 It probably galvanizes young people.
0:33:46 If you see, oh, Taylor Swift or Billie Eilish,
0:33:47 what will Beyonce do?
0:33:49 I assume at some point the endorsement is coming
0:33:53 since she’s leased freedom, the song, to them.
0:33:58 But people are most affected by a personal olive branch.
0:34:00 So someone’s showing up at your door,
0:34:03 explaining why it is that they support ex-candidate.
0:34:05 They know where these voters are.
0:34:07 And all of Nikki Haley’s infrastructure,
0:34:10 I found this fascinating from her primary campaign,
0:34:12 are now for Harris.
0:34:13 – So Trump isn’t sitting still.
0:34:16 He’s been making headlines on the campaign trail as well.
0:34:19 Over the weekend, he returned to Butler, Pennsylvania,
0:34:20 the place where he narrowly escaped
0:34:22 the first assassination attempt.
0:34:25 This time he campaigned alongside Elon Musk.
0:34:28 Let’s hear what Musk had to say, oh shit, let’s not.
0:34:31 Okay, let’s go ahead, Caroline, play the clip.
0:34:35 – President Trump must win to preserve the Constitution.
0:34:38 He must win to preserve democracy in America.
0:34:41 – Yeah, there’s something like a billionaire
0:34:42 with a South African accent to lecture me
0:34:43 on the Constitution.
0:34:45 What did you think of this?
0:34:47 – I found it frightening.
0:34:50 Well, first of all, the good side of it was,
0:34:54 I do think it’s cool that he went back to Butler.
0:34:56 – It was a great move, great move.
0:34:59 – And I think that he was also giving a lot of people
0:35:02 who had come to that rally the experience
0:35:06 that they were expecting to have that day,
0:35:11 and obviously were robbed of, and a man lost his life,
0:35:14 and there was a celebration of that as well.
0:35:16 I thought Trump was funny when he started.
0:35:21 He said, as I was saying, which is a pretty good opener,
0:35:23 considering what had happened.
0:35:26 So I think that’s important in the plus column.
0:35:31 The Musk aspect of this, and you know, way better than I do,
0:35:36 he seems completely off his rocker at this point.
0:35:39 I mean, this is a guy who said he had to buy Twitter
0:35:42 to make sure that there were no politics in it,
0:35:45 because Jack Dorsey was too left leaning.
0:35:49 Someone who, I assume his politics are Democrat leading,
0:35:50 but as far as I know,
0:35:53 was just sitting around on a beach in Bali,
0:35:55 not really doing anything.
0:35:59 And now Musk is censoring accounts,
0:36:03 putting $45 million a month into a Trump PAC,
0:36:04 out there advocating for him,
0:36:07 and saying that the country will cease to exist
0:36:08 if Trump doesn’t win.
0:36:11 What is that, what happened here?
0:36:14 – What strikes me in Musk is part of it.
0:36:16 I think a larger issue in America,
0:36:19 and that is everyone always talked about character
0:36:20 as it relates to the president,
0:36:24 and I think most recently we’ve come to realize
0:36:27 that Americans really don’t give a flying fuck about character.
0:36:29 At least that’s my takeaway here.
0:36:34 Trump is just the guy you would shudder
0:36:37 if you found out your daughter was dating.
0:36:42 He doesn’t appear to, I mean, world’s worst boss, right?
0:36:48 Vice President Pence was a loyal lapdog, really obsequious.
0:36:50 I think actually Vice President Pence,
0:36:51 given the mission he was given,
0:36:54 the assignment was actually a very good vice president
0:36:59 for the president, and sent people hunting for him
0:37:02 who had nooses, but it doesn’t seem like people,
0:37:05 people don’t seem to care.
0:37:09 And then Musk, what I see on the other side is,
0:37:11 I interview all the time these people in tech,
0:37:13 in venture capitalist, and any venture capitalist
0:37:15 or banker or other person in tech,
0:37:17 they begin, they sort of do the caveat,
0:37:19 like yeah, some of his tweets aren’t like
0:37:21 when they’re talking about Musk.
0:37:24 Sometimes I think he gets a little,
0:37:26 he lets his fingers do the walking.
0:37:29 They’re constantly making excuses for a man
0:37:32 who has 12 kids by three women
0:37:33 and doesn’t live with any of them.
0:37:35 In my opinion, that’s like job one.
0:37:37 That just kind of disqualifies you as a man
0:37:39 when you’re not living in the same household
0:37:41 as your children, and you could be.
0:37:42 It’s not because of resources,
0:37:43 it’s not because of family court,
0:37:44 it’s not because he had to make a living
0:37:45 and go somewhere else.
0:37:49 He chooses not to be around for his children.
0:37:52 He accuses his employees of being sex criminals
0:37:54 when they’re not such that they actually have to move home.
0:37:56 So he refuses to pay severance,
0:38:00 legally obligated severance to employees that he fires.
0:38:02 And the absolute, the worst thing I have seen
0:38:05 across any public figure recently
0:38:08 is other than maybe what’s going on with Diddy,
0:38:12 is a father going publicly on Jordan Peterson
0:38:15 and saying that his daughter who went through transition
0:38:17 is now dead to him.
0:38:20 I mean, and then these VCs go on to talk about
0:38:22 the great things he’s doing and his genius.
0:38:24 And it’s like, do you realize what money
0:38:25 has fucking done to us?
0:38:27 Because this guy is rich,
0:38:31 we have decided that regardless of how depraved
0:38:35 his behavior acquits him with respect to being a dad,
0:38:38 being a citizen, being a boss,
0:38:39 being a friend of people,
0:38:42 that he is an awful human being,
0:38:45 but he makes a great fucking car.
0:38:47 So let’s just shove all of that to the side.
0:38:48 And there’s a chance I’ll get to invest
0:38:51 in the D round of SpaceX.
0:38:52 So I’m gonna ignore all of that.
0:38:55 And that same turning a blind eye
0:38:59 to anything resembling what we would expect of men,
0:39:02 we just decide, no, I kind of like,
0:39:04 I just kind of like the cut of his jib
0:39:06 and the policies and his brashness.
0:39:08 And he’s gonna burn everything down
0:39:09 and my life isn’t going great.
0:39:10 And Instagram is reminding me every day
0:39:13 that my life isn’t going nearly as great as everyone else.
0:39:16 So I just like this guy ’cause he’s so,
0:39:18 he’s such a fucking pyromaniac
0:39:20 and it’s gonna burn the place down.
0:39:23 There’s this element of if you’re brash,
0:39:25 you’re angry in your course,
0:39:29 that masks for, that’s a bad imitation,
0:39:31 a rich little imitation of what it means
0:39:33 to be masculine and a man and a leader.
0:39:34 And the country just appears
0:39:37 to have embraced all of this shit.
0:39:41 – I wanna ask you then about,
0:39:43 ’cause this is current events and it’s Musk
0:39:49 and how you apply your prism to the Starlink
0:39:53 and what Musk has been able to do
0:39:56 for the victims of Hurricane Helene,
0:39:58 which has been devastating.
0:40:02 And we know about Trump proliferating these lies
0:40:05 that Biden wiped out the FEMA funds
0:40:07 to give them to undocumented people
0:40:11 and all these Republicans elected officials
0:40:13 have been saying like cut it out.
0:40:15 People are not getting the services that they need
0:40:16 because you’re lying about this.
0:40:20 But one thing Musk has done is delivered satellites
0:40:25 to people in Ukraine and Estonia in North Carolina.
0:40:29 I can’t just see you through this negative prism.
0:40:34 – Well, this is the issue and that is on a net basis.
0:40:37 I actually think there’s a very decent argument
0:40:40 that Elon Musk has been a net positive for society.
0:40:43 He has inspired the race around EVs.
0:40:46 The satellite technology is really inspiring.
0:40:49 He puts things into space for less money than anyone else.
0:40:54 That will have a hugely positive impact on our society.
0:40:57 The problem is with the word net
0:41:01 and that is I don’t forgive people for being a net good
0:41:03 when they have that sort of blessing
0:41:06 and it wouldn’t be hard not to accuse your employees
0:41:07 of being a sex criminal.
0:41:10 It wouldn’t be difficult to have a baseline level
0:41:12 of fatherhood running through your veins
0:41:16 and not say that your daughter is dead to you.
0:41:18 I think pesticides are a net good
0:41:21 but we still have an FDA.
0:41:24 I think fossil fuels are actually a net good
0:41:25 but we still have emission standards
0:41:28 and are trying to deal with climate change.
0:41:31 And what I hate about kind of our societies,
0:41:34 the rubric as you put it is that we look at technology
0:41:37 and if you have innovated around technology,
0:41:40 you get 10 times the affinity, the goodwill,
0:41:42 the forgiveness to get out of jail cards
0:41:45 than if you innovate around agriculture
0:41:47 or you innovate around public policy.
0:41:50 That’s like who he or she is a smart person
0:41:52 but if you can figure out a way to put satellites
0:41:54 into space or have a really cool electric car
0:41:58 or even a photo sharing app, you’re Jesus Christ
0:42:00 and should be forgiven for all of your sins.
0:42:04 So yes, is Musk a net good for society?
0:42:04 I think he is.
0:42:06 The problem is with the word net
0:42:09 and he should absolutely be held accountable
0:42:12 for these really vile things he does.
0:42:15 I find the whole thing very unsettling.
0:42:17 I think there are a few people
0:42:19 that could be worse role models for young men
0:42:21 than Donald Trump or Elon Musk.
0:42:23 And I keep hoping that young men
0:42:24 and I’m curious at what you think here,
0:42:27 I’m keep hoping that young men
0:42:29 who are kind of leaving the Democratic party
0:42:32 because they don’t feel seen towards the end
0:42:35 will break for, you know, gender equality
0:42:37 which they, in a bodily autonomy,
0:42:39 which actually young men support at some
0:42:41 of the same levels as young women.
0:42:43 And then someone just kind of reminds me to say,
0:42:44 Scott, they’re not going to vote.
0:42:46 They’re not going to be important here either way.
0:42:47 They’re not going to vote.
0:42:49 What are your thoughts?
0:42:50 I don’t think they’re going to vote
0:42:52 in the same kind of numbers obviously,
0:42:56 but I think there’s a strong chance that they will vote.
0:43:00 And if the referendums post jobs have been any indication,
0:43:03 young men are showing up for that as well.
0:43:08 And that’s a hyper excited segment of the population.
0:43:12 But I wouldn’t completely write them off for it.
0:43:14 I think there’s a reason Trump is doing a lot
0:43:17 of this low propensity voter media,
0:43:20 like the theovons of the world.
0:43:23 But it will be interesting to see
0:43:26 because I imagine, you know,
0:43:30 people have found a way to consensus usually.
0:43:32 I’m not saying that it’s even,
0:43:36 but we’ve found a way to some degree of agreement.
0:43:41 And if it continues like this or what it is projected to be,
0:43:43 this feels like it’ll be the first time
0:43:45 where that won’t be happening.
0:43:48 And maybe I just believe too much in human nature
0:43:51 or in the good of people that we will come back
0:43:55 to a little bit less of such a stark gender gap.
0:43:57 And I think to push that forward
0:43:59 or to get us closer to that result,
0:44:01 obviously there’s a lot of work
0:44:04 that Democrats need to do around messaging,
0:44:08 around policy, around opportunities for men.
0:44:10 But I am hopeful that we’re not gonna have
0:44:13 like a 20 point gender gap.
0:44:15 Frankly, it shouldn’t be in either direction.
0:44:16 Looks like the female one
0:44:19 because of reproductive choice will probably be that way.
0:44:22 But that men will hue closer to it
0:44:26 because some things will be more important than Machismo
0:44:28 or how they’re being spoken to
0:44:29 or just a feeling of inclusivity.
0:44:33 Actually don’t wanna demean it down to be some macho thing.
0:44:35 You know, it doesn’t, you wanna go somewhere
0:44:38 where you feel included and spoken to.
0:44:42 And we haven’t been fostering that environment for a while.
0:44:47 – Okay, we’ll be right back after a quick break
0:44:49 to discuss Melania Trump’s press tour
0:44:51 for her new book, Stay With Us.
0:44:55 – Fox Creative.
0:44:59 This is “Apertizer Content” from Virgin Atlantic.
0:44:59 (beeping)
0:45:00 – Hey, Kara, it’s Scott.
0:45:03 Remember me, the guy, Tina Fade, your Alec Baldwin
0:45:05 sort of rejuvenated your career.
0:45:06 And he was, I’m at the lounge at Heathrow.
0:45:08 I’m at the Leathrow, the Virgin Lounge,
0:45:10 the Virgin Atlantic Clubhouse Lounge.
0:45:13 And I’m about to have the chicken tikka masala.
0:45:14 I love it here.
0:45:15 You should check it out.
0:45:17 It’s where the cool kids hang out.
0:45:18 Anyways, hope you’re all safe travels.
0:45:19 (beeping)
0:45:20 – Scott, frankly, it’s a miracle
0:45:22 that Virgin Atlantic let you into the clubhouse
0:45:24 and their incredible business class.
0:45:25 But I guess they did.
0:45:27 Tell me how it was.
0:45:29 – So, Kara, I’m an original gangster
0:45:31 when it comes to Virgin.
0:45:35 I’ve been flying Virgin for 20 plus years.
0:45:36 And I do the same thing.
0:45:38 And they get it right every time.
0:45:40 They always have the financial times for me.
0:45:42 And I order the chicken tikka masala.
0:45:43 – Oh.
0:45:46 – That is my Virgin experience.
0:45:48 If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
0:45:50 – And your drink was, what is your drink?
0:45:52 – Well, I used to drink a Bloody Mary
0:45:54 or a beer in the clubhouse.
0:45:57 I started, I don’t drink alcohol when I travel anymore.
0:45:58 So I just do mineral water,
0:46:00 but they have this kind of cool cocktail
0:46:02 that’s like a lemongrass
0:46:04 or some sort of cool margarita thing.
0:46:06 And I get it, I get a Virgin one.
0:46:07 – What is your pre-flight routine?
0:46:10 What is your actual, besides your chicken tikka masala,
0:46:11 the Virgin clubhouse?
0:46:14 – My pre-flight routine is,
0:46:15 well, I always do the same thing the morning when I travel.
0:46:16 I try and work out.
0:46:17 I take the dogs for a walk.
0:46:19 And I always make time for the clubhouse
0:46:22 ’cause I do enjoy the Virgin clubhouse at Heathrow.
0:46:24 So check out virginatlantic.com for your next trip
0:46:26 and see the world differently.
0:46:28 Certain amenities are only available
0:46:29 in selected cabins and aircraft.
0:46:35 – All right, Jess, Melania Trump is making headlines
0:46:36 while promoting her new memoir
0:46:39 and taking a stance on a key election issue,
0:46:41 one that actually puts her at odds with her husband.
0:46:42 Let’s take a listen.
0:46:46 – Individual freedom is a fundamental principle
0:46:47 that I safeguard.
0:46:51 Without a doubt, there is no room for compromise
0:46:54 when it comes to this essential right
0:46:57 that all women possess from birth.
0:46:59 Individual freedom.
0:47:03 What does my body, my choice, really mean?
0:47:08 – I’m sorry, it’s like an “SNL” sketch.
0:47:10 Whenever I hear this shit, I’m like, is this really real?
0:47:13 What do you think is going on here?
0:47:15 – Oh, I think it’s a completely cynical play
0:47:19 set up by her husband to make them seem less radical.
0:47:19 – Softer, yeah.
0:47:24 Yeah, like J.D. Vance got the ball rolling at the debate
0:47:29 with a very fact-free answer to put it politely
0:47:33 about being pro-family and steering away
0:47:36 from any talk of national abortion bans,
0:47:41 which he, it was on his website until it wasn’t.
0:47:44 But I don’t believe anything that comes out
0:47:45 of Melania’s mouth.
0:47:50 And it seems pretty nakedly fake.
0:47:54 – It really does seem, I mean, Melania’s been pretty absent
0:47:55 from the campaign until now.
0:47:57 And then here she is delivering a message
0:47:59 that undercuts Trump’s stance.
0:48:01 I’m curious if it has any impact,
0:48:05 but I do get some joy from the fact that she can’t,
0:48:07 my impression is she can’t stand him.
0:48:10 Like she just doesn’t want to spend time with him.
0:48:12 Is that, am I, as a woman–
0:48:14 – Well, they’re always separate.
0:48:16 – Yeah, they’re never together.
0:48:19 – So I grew up in New York City
0:48:21 and the Trump kids grew up here.
0:48:24 And I had friends who, I mean, Baron is much younger
0:48:27 than us, but went to the school that Baron went to
0:48:32 and said that she was an incredibly hands-on mom,
0:48:35 like doing pickup and drop off, had friends,
0:48:39 seemed remarkably normal for the circumstances.
0:48:42 And if the rumors are true about it,
0:48:45 that she got a new prenup when he ran,
0:48:47 then she got a new one when he ran again.
0:48:51 And again, I guess hats off to her as a businesswoman,
0:48:55 but this does not seem like what she bargained for.
0:48:58 I think she just wanted to marry an older rich guy
0:49:00 and have a nice life in New York City.
0:49:03 And she’s ended up with what this is.
0:49:06 And is Melania probably pro-choice?
0:49:08 Yeah, I would expect so.
0:49:11 I mean, most women are anyway,
0:49:14 especially most women who grew up in a European context,
0:49:16 who think it’s absolutely insane
0:49:18 that we would be regulating something like this
0:49:20 at least at the six-week level.
0:49:22 I know the European standard is usually 15 weeks,
0:49:26 but I can’t pity her anymore.
0:49:29 You know, one time, okay,
0:49:32 maybe you didn’t know that it was gonna be Muslim bands.
0:49:34 Second time, you did know.
0:49:37 And the third time, you really did know.
0:49:39 And covering for him like this,
0:49:41 I think is a pretty gross move.
0:49:42 And it doesn’t have any crossover appeal.
0:49:45 Like I don’t know anyone who doesn’t like Trump,
0:49:49 who thinks that Melania is a messenger of anything
0:49:52 besides her husband’s bidding.
0:49:54 – Before we wrap up, this year marks one year
0:49:57 since the October 7th attack on Israel.
0:49:58 And now there are growing concerns
0:50:01 about a broader conflict in the Middle East.
0:50:04 Just last week, Iran launched its largest missile attack
0:50:05 ever against Israel.
0:50:07 I wanna point out, this is the largest
0:50:10 or the biggest missile barrage in history.
0:50:13 And over the weekend, and by the way, it failed.
0:50:15 Both American and Israeli forces
0:50:18 were able to basically neuter this entire attack.
0:50:20 It was totally ineffectual.
0:50:22 Prime Minister Netanyahu warned that the country
0:50:24 is now fighting on seven different fronts,
0:50:27 referring to them as the enemies of civilization.
0:50:29 Heavy Israeli airstrikes hit Southern Beirut
0:50:31 overnight, targeting Hezbollah.
0:50:34 Meanwhile, the Biden administration has made it clear
0:50:38 that U.S. support for Israel remains unwavering.
0:50:43 Just any thoughts on, I wonder if one of these
0:50:46 three October surprises, the Longshoremen strike,
0:50:49 what’s happening in the Middle East,
0:50:51 or potentially something around the hurricane,
0:50:54 might in fact swing the election one way or the other.
0:50:56 What are your thoughts about some of these
0:50:58 potential October surprises that are sort of
0:51:00 out of either campaign’s control?
0:51:06 – So far, Longshoremen strike handled.
0:51:08 I don’t think anyone will remember that that happened.
0:51:09 – And you don’t think the Biden administration
0:51:11 or Harris gets any credit for that?
0:51:12 – I think they get minimal credit,
0:51:16 but frankly, if you want the pro-union argument,
0:51:17 you’re going with the auto workers,
0:51:19 with them on the picket line,
0:51:23 which was revolutionary in American politics.
0:51:25 And also the Longshoremen union boss,
0:51:28 it seems like such a corrupt criminal.
0:51:31 I mean, the stories about the RICO charges
0:51:33 that got dropped because the guy,
0:51:35 the guy ended up in the back of a car,
0:51:36 the trunk of a car.
0:51:40 So I think that’s off the table.
0:51:42 I think the Middle East definitely could
0:51:43 matter in this.
0:51:48 And I was struck, I spent this morning,
0:51:51 we’re recording on October 7th,
0:51:56 reviewing old missives from the date of the attack.
0:52:01 And I was particularly upset by there was a,
0:52:04 someone had put together all of these text messages,
0:52:07 like the last texts that some of these Israelis
0:52:09 who were murdered were sending to their loved ones.
0:52:11 And it made me think of 9/11.
0:52:12 – Heartbreaking.
0:52:14 – Completely got wrenching.
0:52:18 And what kept coming up over and over again
0:52:21 was this feeling on behalf of the Israelis
0:52:25 that the army was coming and they didn’t come.
0:52:29 They were hours and hours and hours too late for this.
0:52:34 And the sense of let down that this people
0:52:37 that put so much stock in the IDF
0:52:39 and the importance of serving your country,
0:52:44 and they do it with such pride and such magic
0:52:47 were left alone.
0:52:51 And the feeling has, I feel like shifted so much,
0:52:55 so much more goodwill towards what Nanyahu is doing
0:52:57 to the point that Benny Gantz wrote an op-ed
0:52:59 in the New York Times over the weekend,
0:53:02 which basically signaled we’re all aligned at this point.
0:53:04 We have to finish the job with Iran.
0:53:07 And it feels like they are weakened at this moment
0:53:10 and that this is the time to do it,
0:53:12 which is such a scary thing to say
0:53:15 because that means a much broader conflict,
0:53:19 but that you almost can’t say no at this point.
0:53:20 I don’t know if you felt that as well,
0:53:22 but it was stark for me.
0:53:25 – Well, look, we’re both Jews.
0:53:30 So I think this impacts us, not more,
0:53:32 ’cause then there’s a lot of people that are concerned,
0:53:34 but in a different way.
0:53:37 This year for me politically more than anything
0:53:40 has rattled me because as of October 6th, 2023,
0:53:44 if someone had asked me what the state of anti-Semitism was,
0:53:49 I felt that America had sort of grown past anti-Semitism.
0:53:51 And some of my older Jewish friends would say,
0:53:54 “Scott, you don’t realize that this exists
0:53:54 and it’s always there.”
0:53:56 And I’d be like, “Oh, you’re being paranoid.
0:53:58 I understand your concern, what you saw,
0:54:00 what you experienced.”
0:54:01 And I could not have been more wrong.
0:54:03 I think that is the most surprising thing
0:54:05 that has happened to me over the last year
0:54:09 was that that adage that two thirds of an iceberg’s flow
0:54:11 is below the surface line.
0:54:15 And what I’ve come to believe is that 99.9% of anti-Semitism
0:54:18 was lying below the surface and it just erupted.
0:54:20 I think Biden has handled this terribly
0:54:24 in the sense that I think he’s actually been quite supportive
0:54:26 of Israel on the ground and there was no other leader
0:54:30 that immediately deployed to aircraft carrier strike forces.
0:54:34 So I think, and yet he comes across his milk toast,
0:54:35 says, “We’re handling this.
0:54:35 We’re putting pressure.
0:54:37 I’m disappointed.”
0:54:40 So he gets no credit for the immense support he’s provided
0:54:43 and yet gets blamed for looking weak in the face of Netanyahu
0:54:44 who’s like, “Oh, thanks.
0:54:46 Thanks very much for your advice.
0:54:47 Now hold my beer.”
0:54:52 So, and I’m shocked at how much support Netanyahu,
0:54:56 how his fortunes have changed over the last 30 days.
0:54:58 I guess it will wrap up here.
0:55:01 Do you think this will have any real tangible impact
0:55:02 on the election?
0:55:05 ‘Cause I have quite a few friends who were center left
0:55:06 who are now gonna vote for Trump
0:55:08 because they’ve become single issue voters.
0:55:13 And they just want a total resolute view on this.
0:55:15 And correctly or incorrectly,
0:55:18 they see Trump as being less wavering
0:55:19 than Vice President Harris.
0:55:23 Do you think this has any impact on actual voter
0:55:25 on any of these swing stats?
0:55:29 – Potentially in a Pennsylvania or a Michigan,
0:55:32 I guess Arizona, but really on the margins.
0:55:35 And we’re a small but mighty group,
0:55:38 but we are really small.
0:55:43 And it takes a lot for someone who is typically center left
0:55:47 to move over to voting for Donald Trump.
0:55:49 That doesn’t mean it isn’t happening,
0:55:54 but like I have a friend, a couple where the wife,
0:55:58 it sounds like is going to probably vote for Donald Trump,
0:56:02 even though she’s pro-choice, et cetera.
0:56:05 But the husband will stay home.
0:56:07 And I think it could be more stay home
0:56:11 than it would be voting for Trump.
0:56:15 And that a lot of these people also are in New York or California,
0:56:18 where that isn’t going to make a massive amount of difference.
0:56:21 But I think it’s something and it’s also emblematic
0:56:26 of a foreign policy that people could look to and say,
0:56:29 okay, well, we have a war in Ukraine,
0:56:32 which we didn’t have when Donald Trump was in office.
0:56:35 Now we have this war in the Middle East
0:56:37 that we didn’t have when Donald Trump was in office.
0:56:38 And we had the Abraham Accords
0:56:40 and we moved the embassy to Jerusalem.
0:56:43 Now, I don’t believe in that argument.
0:56:45 I think that you have a very strong counter-argument to that,
0:56:49 but that’s persuasive for a lot of people.
0:56:51 – Yeah, I think Harris and Biden
0:56:54 have handled it really poorly, not on the ground,
0:56:55 but because they haven’t been able to figure out a way
0:56:57 to take credit for it.
0:56:58 – Well, Harris’s answer on “60 Minutes”
0:57:00 I thought was very interesting.
0:57:01 When she was asked if Bebe was an ally
0:57:03 and she said the American people
0:57:05 and the Israeli people are allies.
0:57:06 – Yeah, she handled it well.
0:57:07 – And I think that that’s spot on.
0:57:10 But that’s a tough one as well at this moment.
0:57:12 I saw a lot of Jews outraged.
0:57:15 Like this is the moment to kick Bebe.
0:57:18 You know, he’s the one that’s actually going out there
0:57:20 and winning this for us.
0:57:24 But I think long-term that that is a very smart place
0:57:26 for the American government to be,
0:57:30 that we are a united people, Israelis and Americans.
0:57:32 – Yeah, 100% agree.
0:57:34 All right, that’s all for this episode, Jess.
0:57:36 Thank you for listening to “Raging Moderates.”
0:57:38 Our producers are Caroline Shagren and David Toledo.
0:57:40 Our technical director is Drew Burrows.
0:57:42 You can find “Raging Moderates”
0:57:43 on the project called Every Tuesday
0:57:46 and on YouTube every Wednesday.
0:57:48 Just have a great rest of the week.
0:57:49 – You too.
0:57:51 (upbeat music)
0:57:54 (upbeat music)
0:58:03 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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0:00:33 Today’s number, $762,000.
0:00:37 That’s how much Republican PACs have spent at the Capitol Grill Steakhouse,
0:00:38 this election cycle.
0:00:41 Ed, how do you bring a Republican to his knees?
0:00:43 You’ll paint your dick orange.
0:00:55 Hello, Ed.
0:00:56 How are you?
0:01:00 I’m good. I’m more excited by that number than I am by the joke.
0:01:07 750k to the Capitol Grill is one of the greatest statistics we’ve had on this podcast so far.
0:01:12 Yeah, but it’s nothing compared to the amount of revenue that Grindr recognized in Milwaukee the weekend of the convention.
0:01:14 That’s a good point. I’m sure they’re correlated.
0:01:16 I’m sure they both had spikes at the same time.
0:01:23 So the most interesting thing about that stat is that that is 13 times the amount of money that the Democrats spent.
0:01:24 It’s crazy, no?
0:01:25 It’s unbelievable.
0:01:28 What do you think is the Capitol Grill equivalent for the Democrats?
0:01:30 Epstein’s Island.
0:01:33 That was good.
0:01:33 That is good.
0:01:34 Do you like the Capitol Grill?
0:01:36 What’s your favorite restaurant these days?
0:01:37 I’m sort of a creature of habit.
0:01:41 My favorite restaurant in London is Granger & Co.
0:01:44 I started going there when I spent a summer here and it’s in Marlborough.
0:01:50 My favorite restaurant period is in Inalburger, but in New York, my new favorite is Sartianos.
0:01:52 Because I know Scott Sartiano and I like him and it’s cool.
0:01:57 And I see celebs there and I kind of feel like I’m going to go high and they treat me nice because I know Scott.
0:01:58 And I feel big time there.
0:01:59 What’s your favorite restaurant?
0:02:00 Where do young cool people eat?
0:02:03 Isodi in the West Village is pretty great.
0:02:04 Pretty good pasta.
0:02:05 I haven’t been to Sartianos.
0:02:07 I’d like to try it out.
0:02:11 Granger is great and the ricotta pancakes are sort of a staple there.
0:02:11 Have you tried those?
0:02:13 Yeah, of course.
0:02:18 Although I had all this bloodwork done and I’m used to walking into the room like I just won.
0:02:22 Like I’m Simone Biles and I’ve just stuck the landing whenever I have bloodwork done.
0:02:24 And she’s like, “Well, this is a bit of an issue.
0:02:25 We need to talk about this.”
0:02:26 I’m like, “Huh?
0:02:27 What?
0:02:28 Wait, no, I’m me.
0:02:30 I’m like crazy healthy.
0:02:32 I’m getting old, Ed.”
0:02:36 And I kept asking her to take my blood pressure until it was fine.
0:02:38 I’m like, “No, take it again.
0:02:39 Take it again.”
0:02:40 And why are we talking about this?
0:02:42 Do you think your diet has something to do with this?
0:02:43 Why are we on bloodwork now?
0:02:45 I have no idea how I got here.
0:02:48 I had, maybe that’s part of the problem.
0:02:56 So I’ve spent the last two mornings for two to three hours getting NADs, do you know what
0:02:57 these are?
0:03:00 They supposedly, it’s basically biohacking.
0:03:02 I’m convinced it’s biohacking for rich people.
0:03:05 Rich people like to think they can live longer than other people, so they do all this stupid
0:03:07 shit and I think I’ve fallen into this trap.
0:03:13 So it stands for some nuclear atomic diaclide or something.
0:03:17 And supposedly it activates cell growth and I don’t know, you’re not going to recognize
0:03:19 me on Next Week’s Pod.
0:03:20 I’m just going to be …
0:03:21 You’re going to be ripped.
0:03:22 I don’t even need to be ripped anymore.
0:03:25 I just want to be this adorable little Jewish … I want to look like Barbara Streisand
0:03:26 and Yental.
0:03:30 I just want to look young and feminine.
0:03:33 Wait, is this my way of coming out?
0:03:35 You want to look like Timothy Chalamet, I think is what you’re describing.
0:03:39 I don’t know if it’s his NADs, but my brain is just firing in a billion different directions
0:03:40 right now.
0:03:41 Okay.
0:03:44 Well, let’s take all this energy and point it towards the markets now.
0:03:45 Let’s do it.
0:03:53 Here’s a weekly review of market vitals.
0:03:58 The S&P 500 declined, the dollar rose, Bitcoin fell, and the yield on 10-year treasuries
0:04:01 increased, shifting to the headlines.
0:04:05 Tesla’s quarterly deliveries rose for the first time this year, up more than 6% from
0:04:06 a year earlier.
0:04:11 However, that metric still came in below analyst expectations and the stock fell 3%
0:04:12 on the news.
0:04:17 The S is considering breaking up its pharmacy and insurance businesses as it looks to improve
0:04:18 operations.
0:04:22 The company is also pursuing cost-cutting initiatives, including cutting nearly 3,000
0:04:23 jobs.
0:04:28 And finally, venture capital firm CRV is returning more than half of the money from its $500
0:04:31 million select fund to investors.
0:04:36 The firm decided to cut the select fund, which invested in mature startups, after consistently
0:04:40 seeing valuations that were too high to get a decent return.
0:04:45 Scott, your thoughts starting with Tesla’s quarterly delivery update?
0:04:50 The biggest trend I think in auto is that while everyone wanted to follow Musk because
0:04:55 he’s got a three-quarter of a trillion-dollar market cap and it was all about EVs, it ends
0:04:56 up that may have been wrong.
0:04:58 And Ford and General Motors went all in.
0:05:02 In Toyota, which in my view is the best managed automobile company in the world, said, “No,
0:05:08 we’re not going to go after the NFT of EVs,” and they made a big bet on hybrids.
0:05:11 And the consumer is actually moving towards hybrids.
0:05:16 And hybrids basically offer a lot of the upside of electric.
0:05:21 It’s more efficient, less carbon or less shit into the air, and it doesn’t rely on the
0:05:22 grid.
0:05:26 So you have more range, less insecurity about being caught somewhere without a charging
0:05:27 station.
0:05:32 They’re actually less expensive, and Toyota is kind of killing it right now.
0:05:37 And despite the fact that Toyota is killing it and growing faster than Tesla, really well
0:05:42 positioned and made a huge investment on the right horse, and that is hybrids as opposed
0:05:50 to EVs, it trades at 0.8 times revenues, whereas Tesla trades at eight to nine times revenues.
0:05:55 So one of these things is either vastly overvalued or one of them is vastly undervalued.
0:06:01 But we’re so obsessed with Tesla because of the individual at the head of that company
0:06:05 that we don’t talk about general trends in the industry, and I think it’s all about hybrids.
0:06:10 Yeah, it is interesting how the EV used to be sort of the sexiest two letters in the
0:06:15 auto industry, and it’s kind of just so ubiquitous now, it doesn’t have that level of hype and
0:06:17 sex appeal that it used to.
0:06:20 And so Tesla has to rely on different hype stories now.
0:06:25 And I think that’s why I believe that these quarterly delivery updates are becoming less
0:06:27 and less important.
0:06:32 You know, essentially the story is they pretty much met expectations.
0:06:37 They remain just ahead of BYD in terms of overall EV deliveries.
0:06:41 The overall message, and we’ll get a fuller picture at earnings in a couple of weeks,
0:06:45 but the overall message is things are going fine-ish for Tesla.
0:06:51 But more importantly for Tesla, this Thursday is their big robotaxi event.
0:06:54 And I think that’s more important than the numbers because as we’ve talked about with
0:06:58 Tesla before, the valuation is all about the narrative.
0:07:04 This is the big moment where people will ask the question, is the robotaxi actually legit?
0:07:08 My prediction is that that robotaxi event will be a giant letdown.
0:07:11 Two tells for me why that’s going to happen.
0:07:13 One is the narrative leading up to it.
0:07:18 Elon has a habit of over-promising and under-delivering, but he isn’t even over-promising about this
0:07:19 event.
0:07:20 He’s barely talking about it.
0:07:25 He’s spending most of his time ship-hosting about politics, which makes me think that
0:07:28 he believes that this robotaxi is going to underwhelm.
0:07:30 And the second tell for me is the location of the event.
0:07:36 They’re doing it at the Warner Brothers Studio in Burbank, which to me says this is going
0:07:38 to be a cinematic event.
0:07:41 This isn’t actually going to be a sort of technological showcase.
0:07:46 This is just going to be a big production, sexy commercial about what the robotaxi could
0:07:51 look like as opposed to a tangible demonstration of what it actually looks like right now.
0:07:56 So my prediction would be that this robotaxi event that’s happening end of this week will
0:07:57 be highly underwhelming.
0:08:02 And I think the stock is going to suffer as all of the hype and the excitement around
0:08:05 Tesla continues to deflate.
0:08:12 Your thoughts on CVS evaluating, spinning out their insurance and their healthcare businesses
0:08:14 separate from their consumer business?
0:08:16 There’s a lot here.
0:08:18 Essentially they’re deconglomerating.
0:08:23 They saw Amazon coming and they felt like they needed to bulk up and take advantage
0:08:27 of the user interface or the customer interface they had and thought we can upsell you upstream
0:08:32 to insurance, we can upsell you, or downsell you downstream to one minute clinics.
0:08:37 I’ve actually used those clinics a couple of times for vaccines and I thought they were
0:08:39 really, really good.
0:08:44 But what happens with a conglomerate is you end up paying a conglomerate tax.
0:08:49 And that is when the New York Times CEO thinks newspapers are a shitty business and I don’t
0:08:52 want to just answer for one company, I want to diversify.
0:08:55 So they go and buy a bunch of other newspapers and they buy the building, their headquarters
0:08:57 at one point.
0:09:00 The New York Times building was worth more than the entire company, so it had become
0:09:01 a reed accidentally.
0:09:05 They owned 70% of the Boston Red Sox, makes no fucking sense.
0:09:08 I remember when I asked the CEO, I don’t know if you know this or not, but I was on the
0:09:09 board of the New York Times.
0:09:10 I need a bell.
0:09:12 Where’s my bell?
0:09:16 In the boarding they said, “Sky Galloway Director, what do you think we’re talking
0:09:17 about?
0:09:18 Capital strategy?”
0:09:19 I’m like, “Why do we have the Boston Red Sox?”
0:09:22 And Janet Robinson, the CEO of the Times said, “Because we get special insight into
0:09:23 Boston athletics.”
0:09:24 I’m like, “Oh yeah.”
0:09:28 I know about this story, but that’s a very interesting detail I have not heard before.
0:09:29 Well, it’s called bullshit.
0:09:33 She was trying to justify an asset they owned for no real reason and I’m like, “Oh yeah,
0:09:35 we’re known for our coverage of the Celtics.”
0:09:38 It just, it made no sense.
0:09:43 But what happens is, is CEOs love to get, their incentive is to get bigger.
0:09:45 Now, why do they want to get bigger?
0:09:48 Because their compensation is based on the following.
0:09:49 Directors don’t like to do any work.
0:09:54 The compensation committee hires a firm called Towers Parent to come in and look at compensation.
0:09:57 They say, “Okay, Janet Robinson, the CEO of the New York Times.
0:10:01 It’s a media company that is doing $5 billion in revenue.”
0:10:02 That’s the thing.
0:10:03 What kind of sector it’s in?
0:10:04 The size of the company.
0:10:09 The average person running a $5 billion media company gets this much in compensation and
0:10:11 this much in stock options.
0:10:18 So the incentive of the CEO is to diversify such that their life is just less anxious.
0:10:19 Right?
0:10:23 If one brand isn’t doing well, the other’s usually doing a bit better, it kind of smooths
0:10:24 out the earnings.
0:10:27 And two, the bigger the company, you typically the higher the compensation.
0:10:32 So there are a lot of incentives to try and have a game-changing acquisition and two-thirds
0:10:35 of acquisitions do not work.
0:10:38 People overpay for them because they get excited.
0:10:41 They don’t realize this business is hard.
0:10:44 Integration problems, you have to pay a premium to take out the other shareholders.
0:10:46 So they very rarely work.
0:10:48 When they work, they can work usually.
0:10:50 Meta is probably the best acquirer in history.
0:10:54 Instagram, which they purchased for a billion, is probably worth a couple hundred billion.
0:10:56 But the vast majority of the time, they’re not.
0:11:02 Now on the flip side, what almost always works is the disposition of assets or spends.
0:11:08 Because in a conglomerate where investors think, “You know, I don’t need you to diversify
0:11:09 for me.
0:11:11 I can go buy an insurance company all on my own.
0:11:16 So I don’t like this kind of milk toast amorphous Frankenstein of a company.”
0:11:21 So they end up, typically the market says, “Let’s find the shittiest business and assign
0:11:23 that multiple to the entire thing.”
0:11:29 You end up with this company that despite perhaps having good assets, trades at the multiple
0:11:31 of a shitty retailer and decline.
0:11:36 So this insurance company that they own would probably trade at a much higher multiple for
0:11:37 an independent company.
0:11:41 So the disposition of assets becomes accretive to shareholder.
0:11:44 Spins almost always work.
0:11:46 So I think this is a good idea.
0:11:52 Our final headline is CRV, returning their money to investors, something you basically
0:11:57 never see venture capitalists doing.
0:11:58 What is your read on this?
0:12:03 Why have they done this and what does it say about the VC industry right now?
0:12:09 All of the returns are kind of aggregating to a small number of funds that are essentially
0:12:13 getting the best deal flow and they’re looking for companies that they can put hundreds of
0:12:17 millions or billions into because they’ve raised so much capital.
0:12:22 And I think what you’re seeing is this enormous shakeout in the VC community where you’re
0:12:26 either one of these mega funds that before the returns on fund nine come in, you’re already
0:12:28 raising fund 10.
0:12:35 And because you get amazing deal flow, your institutional investors get good money or
0:12:43 really niche focused VC firms that bring a very specific knowledge like Lux Capital,
0:12:48 Josh Wolf’s company that’s kind of this deep, serious, you know, forward-looking technologies
0:12:53 like brain scans, brain implants or nuclear power, whatever it is.
0:12:57 But just a smaller, medium-sized VC that’s trying to invest in tech, you’re kind of
0:12:58 fucked.
0:12:59 You have no advantage.
0:13:00 You don’t have the capital.
0:13:03 You’re not getting good deal flow.
0:13:07 And so I think there’s just going to be, I mean, there already is kind of a pretty serious
0:13:08 shakeout.
0:13:13 And I think these guys have probably said we can’t find good deals and the few deals
0:13:19 we find are just so expensive that the market has taken startups, I mean, it’s sort of tempting
0:13:25 right after I sold L2, I merely went to, well, I’m going to go raise, start another company
0:13:30 because the amount of money you can raise at a valuation, it really has gotten kind
0:13:31 of bad shit crazy.
0:13:37 But at that point, my attitude was as a quote unquote proven entrepreneur, there was maybe
0:13:41 two or three investors I would raise money for or I just wasn’t going to raise.
0:13:47 And so to be a tier two here, it is really, really tough.
0:13:50 And as a whole, I just think it’s a shitty asset class.
0:13:56 More specific to this CRV headline, it’s really all about late stage VC.
0:14:01 They’re still operating an, an early stage fund, which, you know, they didn’t return
0:14:02 the money there.
0:14:06 I assume it’s doing okay slash fine.
0:14:10 But their concern is late stage VC and just some statistics here.
0:14:17 Last year, late stage deal volume fell 53% and late stage funding, the amount of actual
0:14:22 actual capital going into these late stage companies fell 60%.
0:14:26 And in addition, we’re seeing this giant drop off in IPO activity.
0:14:30 We’ve only had 150 new listings in the US this year.
0:14:34 You compare that to 2021, where we had more than a thousand new IPOs.
0:14:38 And so the general theme that we’re seeing within VC is that we’re seeing far fewer
0:14:44 series D rounds, far fewer series E rounds, far fewer companies are sort of breaching
0:14:51 the surface of growth stage and, you know, picking up steam and entering into the public
0:14:53 capital markets.
0:14:55 My question to you would be, why is that happening?
0:15:00 I would speculate that that’s a function of the fact that the IPO market has yet to emerge
0:15:03 from this sort of deep freeze it’s been in for the last several years.
0:15:08 It’s typically late stage investment is, all right, we need to short the balance sheet,
0:15:14 we make a few tuck in acquisitions, but we’re basically getting cleaned up for an IPO.
0:15:17 And it’s sort of right now the worst of both worlds and that is, it’s expensive because
0:15:22 these companies still have a, you know, the market is still fairly hot for companies in
0:15:27 the ride sector, but the IPO market is all but shut to just a few players.
0:15:33 So it’s sort of like, okay, I’m paying a lot hoping to get into liquidity in a market where
0:15:36 fewer companies are getting, are getting out.
0:15:42 It feels like deal flow is very downstream and what I mean by that, we’re seeing far
0:15:44 fewer IPOs recently.
0:15:49 And now we’re seeing that also late stage deal flow is falling off the cliff and funding.
0:15:57 And I wonder if that means that this is going to continue to trickle down into early stage
0:15:58 startups.
0:16:04 And I wonder if the general theme is that we’re seeing the ramifications of a world
0:16:10 where simply fewer successful companies are being created in general.
0:16:13 And you know, we’re just beginning to see the after effects of that.
0:16:19 We’re seeing the impacts where the market is becoming more and more dominated by these
0:16:24 mega, mega giant companies, the Magnificent Seven, Big Tech, the companies that we constantly
0:16:26 talk about on this podcast.
0:16:32 And in the meanwhile, actual successful company formation has been slowly dying.
0:16:36 And we’re beginning to see the ramifications of that in the public markets and then in
0:16:37 late stage.
0:16:42 And I wonder if that will continue to the point where suddenly maybe venture as an industry
0:16:44 is not a thing anymore.
0:16:47 Well, you just made the argument for Cher Khan.
0:16:48 That’s her whole wrap.
0:16:53 Is it effectively what we have here is an ecosystem that says find the monopoly or find the future
0:16:55 monopoly.
0:16:59 And then once that company starts, a company starts to show market leadership in a hot
0:17:05 sector, you just try and out raise everybody and just literally sweep the competition off
0:17:10 the deck with brute force with more and more capital.
0:17:13 And it’s not a very healthy ecosystem.
0:17:19 What you have is a small number of apex predators where they introduce a reticulated anaconda
0:17:24 to an ecosystem and there’s just no other species that can fight back.
0:17:27 So what you’re saying is accurate.
0:17:31 And for me, it all kind of forward engineers to the fact that we just need dramatically
0:17:32 more antitrust.
0:17:33 Yeah.
0:17:40 I think the other alternative for VCs is you either try to get a 10, 20, 30 X return on
0:17:45 the company that you bet on that becomes a monopoly, or you’re going for a one and a
0:17:50 half to two X return where the company will be aqua hired by a big tech company.
0:17:53 I can just speak from experience.
0:17:58 No catalyst invested in my company L2 27 months later, they got three times their money back
0:18:00 and they were disappointed.
0:18:03 Their attitude is you’re either 10 X or you’re zero.
0:18:09 Which means so many VCs are going to get crushed now because there are fewer and fewer winners.
0:18:10 100%.
0:18:14 That’s why I’m really not cut out for venture capital and I probably should never raise
0:18:15 money from venture capitalists again.
0:18:18 And plus at the age of 50, I probably shouldn’t.
0:18:27 And that is my skill has been taking a company from A to DRE and selling it for a really
0:18:28 good valuation.
0:18:35 I build companies, you know, I built my first company, I started a strategy firm and sold
0:18:42 it for $33 million when it was doing 10 million in revenue when I was I don’t know, 33 or 34.
0:18:47 And then L2 built it, got it to 20 million revenues sold for 160 million.
0:18:49 That’s what I’m good at.
0:18:51 My investors were sort of non plus by that.
0:18:55 I mean, they were happy, they made money, they were willing to invest with me again.
0:19:01 But they’re in the venture business, they’re like, go baby, go swing for the fucking fence.
0:19:05 And if you, if you herniate a disc, okay, that’s fine.
0:19:08 But we’re not, we’re not here for singles and doubles folks.
0:19:13 The difference, the reason why I like working with private equity is you’re in companies
0:19:17 and the private equity guys say, all right, we’re going to give management 8% of the company.
0:19:21 We’re all on the same page, we’re going to try and be in this thing three to seven years
0:19:24 and then sell for two to three X what we invested.
0:19:31 I find that’s much healthier than a bunch of young guys from Stanford saying, 50X baby,
0:19:32 50X.
0:19:34 It’s just sort of, okay.
0:19:35 Wish me luck.
0:19:36 I’m going to try real hard.
0:19:37 Yeah, exactly.
0:19:44 We’ll be right back after the break with a look at a new AI IPO.
0:20:01 If you’re enjoying the show, hit follow and leave us a review on profg markets.
0:20:04 We’re back with profg markets.
0:20:09 California based chip maker cerebrus systems filed for an IPO that could raise up to $1
0:20:10 billion.
0:20:14 With an offering of that size, the Nvidia challenger could be valued at around seven
0:20:16 to $8 billion.
0:20:21 Cerebrus showed strong, albeit early stage growth for the first six months of 2024,
0:20:24 with revenue increasing more than 15 fold from a year earlier.
0:20:29 The trouble is 87% of those sales came from just one company.
0:20:34 That company is G42, the top AI firm in the United Arab Emirates.
0:20:38 Should the US give Cerebrus any trouble with its export licenses, most of the company’s
0:20:40 revenue could be at risk.
0:20:47 Scott, what do you make of this IPO filing from Cerebrus, perhaps the new Nvidia?
0:20:51 This has never underestimate the market’s ability to come up with a product when consumers
0:20:53 have cash in hand.
0:20:58 You have a small number of companies that have soaked up the majority of the capital
0:20:59 in the retail markets.
0:21:05 That is, the SPAC market emerged because there were a lot of dentists and lawyers and retail
0:21:09 investors that thought, “I would really like to be part of the Pepsi generation and I’m
0:21:13 willing to buy a cool little company, even if Goldman Sachs doesn’t think it’s ready
0:21:15 for prime time.”
0:21:19 The demand was there amongst retail investors and SPACs went out and then they were largely
0:21:23 shitty companies and a lot of retail investors lost a lot of money.
0:21:28 The demand from retail, if you’re a retail investor that wants exposure to AI, where
0:21:29 do you invest right now?
0:21:31 It’s basically Microsoft or Nvidia.
0:21:32 What else do you invest in?
0:21:33 That’s it.
0:21:41 Much demand for an Nvidia-like competitor, even if it’s a distant, distant, distant number
0:21:46 of five, that there’s a market for it.
0:21:51 The first sign is that Barclays and Citi are not tier one.
0:21:54 Barclays and Citi are the underwriters of this IPO.
0:21:55 Yeah, they’re the underwriters.
0:22:01 What that says is Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs said no, otherwise one of
0:22:04 those guys would be on the cover, which isn’t to say it isn’t a good company, which isn’t
0:22:07 to say that it won’t get a good reception in the marketplace, but that’s sort of the
0:22:11 first, I don’t want to call it a red flag, but the first indicator here.
0:22:19 The red flag that is the size of Kansas here is that 87% of its revenues come from a company
0:22:26 backed by, I think, the UAE that is building its own LLM that also owns or has the opportunity
0:22:27 to buy shares in the company.
0:22:32 I mean, it’s kind of a related party conflict, overly concentrated customer base that is
0:22:35 the stuff of nightmares.
0:22:40 Having said that, I would like to invest, whoever, I mean, there’s a couple of reasons
0:22:46 I’d like to invest, I like the idea of bringing attention, sunlight, and capital to anything
0:22:50 in this space that is not NVIDIA or open AI.
0:22:54 It would be great for other competitors to emerge.
0:22:57 So I would love to be supportive of this company, I want to follow it, I want to talk
0:22:58 about it.
0:23:03 I want to water as many new companies in this space as possible such that it just doesn’t
0:23:07 develop into the wind tail only, only much more concentrated.
0:23:12 The second is, I just think this, I think there’s a decent chance this company gets
0:23:19 an enormous pop because, oh, it’s AI, oh, it’s a competitor to NVIDIA, sure, I’ll throw
0:23:22 some money at it, and it’s going to go out at a $7 billion market cap.
0:23:29 Say there’s a one in 50 chance, it becomes a quarter of NVIDIA, well, that would be
0:23:36 $750 billion, that would be, I mean, do the math, that’s still an okay investment.
0:23:43 So this is a lottery ticket, but it’s a lottery ticket on, you know, the super, whatever’s
0:23:47 called the super jackpot, or the powerball that all of a sudden we woke up and it’s
0:23:49 like it’s $1.1 billion.
0:23:54 The prize here is so enormous for anybody that establishes momentum and traction.
0:24:01 So it’s not the ilk, it’s not the pedigree you’d want in a company like this right now.
0:24:04 I wouldn’t be surprised if the thing doubles on its first trade.
0:24:08 Well, I find it interesting that they’re almost borrowing marketing tactics from the
0:24:17 fast food industry, and that is, you know, when Burger King sales start slowing, a very
0:24:23 surefire way to stoke demand and interest in the company is to come out with a triple
0:24:29 whopper or a double king Excel, basically just create a fun size item of the product
0:24:31 that you’re already selling.
0:24:36 So having said that, I’m just going to read you some of the main details from the S1.
0:24:43 The first page in gigantic font, it takes up the entire page says, “Bigger chips are
0:24:47 faster and more efficient for AI.”
0:24:52 In the prospectus summary, quote, “The third generation Cerebrus wafer scale engine is
0:24:55 the largest chip ever sold.
0:24:59 It is 57 times larger than the leading commercially available GPU.
0:25:06 It has 52 times more compute cores, 880 times more on chip memory and 7,000 times more memory
0:25:07 bandwidth.
0:25:14 The sheer size of the wafer scale chip allows us to keep more work on silicon and minimize
0:25:17 the time consuming power hungry movement of data.”
0:25:22 In other words, the sales pitch is that size matters.
0:25:23 That’s basically it.
0:25:28 But then again, they also say that it’s 20 times faster than Nvidia’s chips.
0:25:34 And to your point, you know, if it’s a good marketing tactic, maybe that’s all that matters.
0:25:39 Maybe people read that, they hear how big this chip is, and they think, “This is great.
0:25:40 We want to get involved.”
0:25:46 So I’m sort of finding it a little bit ridiculous, parts of this.
0:25:52 I’m certainly concerned about that 87% number going to one company.
0:25:56 But there is an argument to be made that this kind of stuff could work, and coming out with
0:26:01 font sized AI could generate the momentum they need to actually do well in the stock
0:26:02 market.
0:26:08 But anything, if it ends up at any of their IP, any of their niches, if defense contractors
0:26:14 or pharmaceutical firms find that this monster super sized chip works for them, it’s going
0:26:17 to be worth a lot more than 7 billion.
0:26:22 So this is highly volatile, but the upside here is asymmetric.
0:26:24 Yeah, it’s like a mean stop play.
0:26:25 Yeah.
0:26:30 I could easily see this thing on any signs of life going to 30, 40, or 50 billion, 7X
0:26:32 versus assume the downside is zero.
0:26:35 But we should be clear, this is not at all value investing.
0:26:39 This is not based on the fundamentals, and I do want to get your take on the fundamentals.
0:26:43 So they did 136 million in the first half of this year.
0:26:46 That number is up 15 fold from the previous year.
0:26:52 However, as we pointed out, 87% of that revenue is coming from one company, and that is G42.
0:26:56 And just I want to get your take a little bit on G42.
0:27:00 So this is an AI holding company that is based in Abu Dhabi.
0:27:02 They do AI everything.
0:27:08 I mean, the website, it says AI research, AI cloud computing, data centers, AI health
0:27:14 care, investing, et cetera, et cetera, and they are largely controlled by the royal family
0:27:21 of Abu Dhabi and largely funded by the UAE sovereign wealth fund.
0:27:30 My instinct when I see these kinds of companies is that this is very rich people who don’t
0:27:31 really know what they’re doing.
0:27:39 Another word for that is another term for that is dumb money.
0:27:41 People who have more money than they even know what to do with.
0:27:43 That is my instinct.
0:27:49 Having said that though, Microsoft is also a significant investor in G42.
0:27:54 They have partnerships going on with OpenAI and Dell and IBM and Microsoft.
0:27:59 They could be legit, but my question to you would be, is the fact that their biggest client,
0:28:06 a Middle Eastern royalty backed holding company, is that good, bad, or does it not matter?
0:28:07 Okay.
0:28:08 So there’s some good and there’s some bad.
0:28:09 So let’s talk about the bad.
0:28:16 Related party transactions in 1999 and 2007, when I was starting my tech companies, what
0:28:21 we found is that basically it was, if you had a software company or even brand strategy,
0:28:28 my firm profit in ’99, we were killing it because there were all of these startups who
0:28:33 needed a brand identity and a logo and a strategy and a positioning and a website.
0:28:36 So it was just champagne and cocaine.
0:28:41 When the market collapsed in 2000, just all of our new clients dried up because all of
0:28:42 the new guys were gone.
0:28:45 They just got swept off the decks.
0:28:49 And a lot of times you found that all these new software startups, Broadcom and all this
0:28:53 e-commerce shit we were buying, they were selling to all these hundreds or thousands
0:28:57 of e-commerce startups and then overnight, 60% of them were gone.
0:29:01 We were kind of all selling software and shit to each other in the kind of the new brave
0:29:03 world of the ecosystem.
0:29:09 There are so many new AI startups that the fear is, okay, if there’s a chill here, these
0:29:12 guys get swept off the deck first.
0:29:17 The scariest thing here is the concentration of one client, right?
0:29:22 Now, having said that, you can imagine that the gulf in the entire world looks at the amount,
0:29:26 it looks at the sector and says, “This is going to be probably the sector that creates
0:29:30 the most shareholder value the quickest in a long, long time.”
0:29:35 And it really bums us out that 97% of it is in one nation and 80% of it or 70% of it
0:29:38 isn’t with a seven mile radius of SFO International Airport.
0:29:44 And as we try and transition, weeding the gulf states or the UAE in this case from a fossil
0:29:51 fuel based economy to a services tech, hospitality, education, and in this instance, technology
0:29:56 based economy, we would like to have a presence in AI.
0:30:00 So the related party transaction here is really uncomfortable.
0:30:05 Having said that, when your related party has the deepest pockets in the world, it’s kind
0:30:06 of a good related party.
0:30:09 And they’ll be very supportive of the company moving forward because they would like to
0:30:14 see the center of gravity, at least a little bit around AI move into that region.
0:30:19 So red flags, red flags everywhere, I’m a buyer.
0:30:25 Yeah, just one final comment from me on these sovereign wealth funds, the public investment
0:30:33 fund, which is Saudi Arabia, Mubadala, which is UAE, these funds, in my view, are the most
0:30:35 susceptible to bullshit.
0:30:39 They are not disciples of the boring, the sexy argument which you have made.
0:30:45 These are people who invest hundreds of billions of dollars into whatever is the technology
0:30:46 du jour.
0:30:51 They’ll invest billions into buying Premier League teams, they’re building cities that
0:30:52 have artificial moons.
0:30:56 I mean, these people love sexy stuff.
0:31:05 And so the idea that there is a company that is pitching the world’s biggest GPU cluster,
0:31:10 I’m just not at all surprised that the biggest backer is someone in the Gulf with a shit ton
0:31:11 of oil money.
0:31:15 What I have found, the worst thing they could have done for their brand was this brand called
0:31:17 Masayoshi-san.
0:31:24 And that is the whole WeWork fiasco soft bank got this reputation for coming in and just
0:31:27 overfunding stupid fucking ideas.
0:31:32 And it’s tightly linked to this, what you would describe as dumb money in the Gulf.
0:31:36 If you spend any time in the Gulf and you spend any time with these guys, I would argue
0:31:42 on average, they are more professionally managed than the majority of VC hedge funds in the
0:31:43 West.
0:31:44 Yeah.
0:31:48 I mean, a rookie move is if you meet a new VC or fund and they think they’re going to
0:31:52 fly into Riyadh and just like hold out a hat and that billions of dollars is going to drop
0:31:55 into their fund, they’re in for a rude awakening.
0:31:56 That’s what’s happening.
0:31:57 No?
0:31:58 No.
0:32:01 I feel like those are the head, fair enough, I don’t experience it personally.
0:32:07 But what I certainly see in the headlines is that you take a flight, you have your brand,
0:32:10 you hold your hat out and they dump billions of dollars in.
0:32:12 Oh, no, no, no.
0:32:18 For every fund that’s raising money there, there are a hundred going there and going
0:32:21 to a cool resort in the desert and going to the Superfund conference and then coming
0:32:22 back with no money.
0:32:26 As a matter of fact, they’ve switched their objective to no longer letting money leave
0:32:27 the region.
0:32:29 But what they want is what’s in it for us.
0:32:35 We need to get, we want to create jobs, we want to, we know we’re running out of oil.
0:32:38 We don’t know if it’s 40 years or 70 years, but we know we’re running out of it.
0:32:39 So we need to make this transition.
0:32:44 The transition is not only making money abroad, but it’s building sustainable industry here.
0:32:50 They’re trying to build a huge industry and even a city focusing on gaming, video games.
0:32:55 They’re building huge universities and NYU has a huge presence in Abu Dhabi.
0:33:04 I think it’s a little bit reductive and, I don’t know, I think you’re falling into the
0:33:10 trap of believing that you’ve seen the headlines and the stories and the…
0:33:11 They’ve made bad investments.
0:33:12 Oh, no doubt.
0:33:15 But I also think they’ve made good investments.
0:33:21 And my experience with them has been that they are just as if not more sophisticated
0:33:23 than any other alternative investments investor.
0:33:25 Anyways.
0:33:26 Come to Riyadh.
0:33:27 You and I are going to Riyadh.
0:33:28 Yeah, exactly.
0:33:30 I think that’s why we’re headed here.
0:33:35 I think either MBS is in the room with you with a gun to your head, or we’re going to
0:33:36 get them on the podcast.
0:33:39 One of those two things is going to happen.
0:33:43 Neither of those is true, and I want to be clear, I have no investments or vested interests
0:33:45 in the Gulf right now.
0:33:47 Just to be clear.
0:33:48 Just to be clear.
0:33:49 We’ll look into that.
0:33:53 We’ll be right back after the break with a look at the path forward for Nike.
0:34:11 We’re back with Prof2Markets.
0:34:15 Nike withdrew its full year sales guidance ahead of its new CEO’s arrival later this
0:34:16 month.
0:34:20 The company also postponed its investor day, signalling that a meaningful turnaround will
0:34:23 take some time and the stock fell 7%.
0:34:28 As we discussed previously, Nike tapped company veteran Elliot Hill to take the helm amid
0:34:30 declining sales.
0:34:34 Revenue for the most recent quarter dropped 10% year over year.
0:34:38 CFO Matthew Friend said pulling the guidance would give Hill, quote, “much needed flexibility
0:34:42 to evaluate Nike’s strategies and business trends.”
0:34:48 Scott, based on your experience, one, what do you make of these Nike earnings revenue
0:34:53 down 10% and two, what do you think the new CEO, Elliot Hill, needs to do here to stage
0:34:55 a comeback for Nike?
0:34:57 I like this company so much.
0:34:58 I have a bias.
0:34:59 I want you to go first, Ed.
0:35:07 I think you’d probably have, I mean, unlike your exceptionally bias bordering on racist
0:35:13 views of the Gulf, I’d like your views on Nike on the swish.
0:35:15 And by the way, they’re really nice white people.
0:35:16 Go ahead.
0:35:19 No one’s going to buy this.
0:35:24 No one’s going to buy the reason, I believe, that they’re investing in this company because
0:35:25 I’m racist.
0:35:26 Anyways, go ahead.
0:35:27 What do you think of Nike?
0:35:33 Well, I think what’s interesting is that there’s not one part of the business here that
0:35:36 is working.
0:35:38 It’s basically bad across the board.
0:35:43 So you’re seeing revenue declines in direct revenue, in brand revenue, in wholesale revenue.
0:35:46 You’re also seeing revenue declines across every region.
0:35:50 So it’s down 11% in North America, it’s down 13% in Europe.
0:35:55 The slowest decrease was in China, which is down 4%, but that’s sort of the rising tide
0:35:56 with all boats.
0:36:03 As we’re seeing, China is somewhat improving, or at least it’s falling less fast than it
0:36:04 was before.
0:36:07 So the financial picture for Nike is very simple.
0:36:10 Things are just bad across the board.
0:36:14 The only other interesting detail is the fact that they decided to withdraw their full-year
0:36:19 guidance, i.e. their financial forecast for the next 12 months.
0:36:22 And instead, they’re only offering quarterly forecasting.
0:36:26 And their explanation for that is that we have a management shakeup, we’ve got a new
0:36:29 CEO, we’re in a transition period.
0:36:34 I can’t tell if that is an appropriate excuse or not.
0:36:37 So I would like to get your take on that.
0:36:41 What do you make of a company like Nike as big as Nike saying we actually don’t know
0:36:46 what the next 12 months looks like because we’ve got a new CEO coming in?
0:36:48 Is that a valid excuse or is it a little bit bullshit?
0:36:49 I think it’s a ladder.
0:36:53 I think when you’re a company like Nike, you should have such a deep bench, you should
0:36:58 have such a talented CFO, you should be able to draw on such an incredibly talented CEO,
0:37:06 which I think the new CEO is that you should be able to handle learnings calls and forward-looking
0:37:07 projections.
0:37:14 So if you really feel that way that you need to free up the excuse they gave that it would
0:37:18 essentially, well, what was it said that it would much need a flexibility to evaluate
0:37:20 Nike’s strategy and business trends.
0:37:24 That’s why companies are taken private because when you have a public company, you’re sort
0:37:27 of promising that you’re going to give a certain level of transparency, especially when you’re
0:37:30 an S&P company like Nike.
0:37:35 So that is yet another signal that these guys really don’t have their shit together.
0:37:38 And even if you were to come on and say, “I’m new, this is what I’m thinking,” and have
0:37:43 the CFO report in a very no mercy, no malice way, this is what’s going on, I think analysts
0:37:44 would be fine.
0:37:49 But to kind of go back into, we don’t know what’s going on, we want the freedom to figure
0:37:50 this out.
0:37:54 Come on, you’re fucking Nike for God’s sakes, you should have that.
0:37:58 You should have five people sitting around the table that could probably be the CEO in
0:38:02 the earnings call for in the next two or three quarters that are just very good at what they
0:38:03 do.
0:38:09 And the fact that they don’t have that, it reflects poorly on the board and the bench,
0:38:10 if you will.
0:38:17 Now, down 10% on a company this size is no doubt, that is nearly a meltdown for a company
0:38:20 like this that is so diversified around the globe.
0:38:23 I wonder if this was a bit of a kitchen sink quarter, if they kind of threw all their bad
0:38:26 news in here.
0:38:27 What do they need to do?
0:38:30 I’d be very curious to know, and you never like to say this out loud, I’d be very curious
0:38:32 to know what the revenue per employee is.
0:38:36 It feels to me like a pretty significant layoff is coming.
0:38:43 But what they need to show is some momentum around shrinking the product development time
0:38:47 and getting kind of, if you will, I don’t want to say cool again, but on trend again,
0:38:50 getting out there and getting much more in touch at a ground level with some of their
0:38:54 cooler, smaller retailers being more on trend.
0:39:00 And then once they discover trends, getting stuff from design or concept to shelf much
0:39:01 faster.
0:39:04 And I think they should be able to figure that out.
0:39:09 Also, they’ve just left these niches and these doors wide open for Hoka and for on.
0:39:15 At the end of the day, I agree with you, they shouldn’t be saying, oh, we’re in such disarray
0:39:22 that we’re not going to be able to do it, basically every public company, man, 97% of
0:39:26 public companies managed to do this and none of them have the, or very few of them have
0:39:30 the resources and the depth of the bench of a Nike.
0:39:34 So I just think this brand is just, I don’t care where you go.
0:39:43 I don’t care if you go to Cape Town or Seoul or, you know, Cambodia, 11 year olds playing
0:39:50 football in the yard are wearing Nike and the brand is always reinvented itself.
0:39:54 They have such powerful marketing routes are not even needed to reinvent itself.
0:39:58 It just resonates so deeply that I like this company a lot.
0:40:03 I think at these price levels, I mean, I’d be prepared for it to go down more, but this
0:40:06 is, you know, I’m thinking about setting up a trust for my kids.
0:40:09 And this is one of those stocks that I would put in there and just say, okay, I’d look
0:40:11 at it in 20 years.
0:40:13 Two things I find quite interesting.
0:40:19 One is, I think you’re right that the CFO kind of did a shitty job here and the rest
0:40:24 of the management team, while the previous CEO, John Donahoe is out and it sort of reminds
0:40:31 me of like the Gareth Southgate problem where we have this tendency to just assume that
0:40:35 everything’s going bad because the head honcho sucks.
0:40:39 And now the head honcho is out and we’re seeing that maybe actually the rest of the management
0:40:40 team sucks too.
0:40:45 Maybe the players on the field are not performing as well as they should.
0:40:49 But we’re so obsessed with blaming the manager in this case, the England manager in this
0:40:54 case, the Nike CEO, that we just get so caught up with that.
0:40:59 And then when they leave, we’re like, oh, maybe it’s an us problem that we didn’t realise.
0:41:02 The second thing that I find kind of interesting, what you’re saying about the brand and how
0:41:11 strong it is, we often hear this idea of brand as moat, that if you have a strong brand,
0:41:18 it can act as a really strong moat to prevent competition from your competitors.
0:41:22 And 10 years ago, I feel like we would have used Nike as the shining example of this.
0:41:28 We have said Nike is far away the winner, it has a huge moat because it has such a
0:41:29 strong brand.
0:41:34 But I look at what’s happened to Nike here and I look at what’s happened to a lot of
0:41:37 other iconic brands recently that you have been talking about and that you’ve written
0:41:44 about in your blog, Starbucks, for example, Disney, down more than 25% in the past five
0:41:50 years, Estee Lauder, basically cut in half over the past five years, and it feels like
0:41:55 at this point, you could maybe make the opposite case, which is that a strong brand, when it’s
0:42:00 strong, looks like a moat until eventually it isn’t.
0:42:06 Because what looks like might be happening is that these companies have become so reliant
0:42:10 and so dependent on their brand that it ends up being their downfall.
0:42:15 They think that they’re invincible because we’re Nike, because we’re Estee Lauder.
0:42:16 Who could come after us?
0:42:18 It’s an interesting observation.
0:42:23 And that is, so the algorithm for printing money from the end of World War II to the
0:42:28 introduction of Google has come up with a mediocre product, a mediocre car, salty snack,
0:42:35 mediocre shoe, mediocre carbonated drink, and then wrap it in these amazing brand codes
0:42:41 of youth, masculinity, European elegance, sex appeal, and use this incredibly cheap medium.
0:42:45 We didn’t realize how cheap it was called broadcast media, where all of America was
0:42:50 watching one of three channels and just pound away at these associations, and people would
0:42:53 pay two bucks for 20 cents a peanut butter paste because it meant that you loved your
0:42:57 kids more because Tuesday Moms chose Jif.
0:43:02 Or that I was a more competitive, strong, masculine, individual American person if I
0:43:05 bought $210 Air Jordans.
0:43:07 It’s the interaction of Google.
0:43:11 The rise of quality and innovation has just been dramatic.
0:43:14 And the example I use is hotels.
0:43:19 Whenever I traveled, and I’ve been traveling 180 to 220 days a year for the last 30 years,
0:43:23 I would stay at the Four Seasons where the man in Oriental, one, because someone else
0:43:25 was paying, and two, they were always an eight.
0:43:27 On a scale of one to 10, they were always an eight.
0:43:32 And if I was in Madrid, I didn’t have the time or the insight to figure out, is there
0:43:36 a better hotel than the Madrid Four Seasons, which I know is going to be lovely.
0:43:41 Now with the introduction of Google, Trip Advisor, your social graph, Instagram, within
0:43:45 about five minutes, I can figure out the Rosewood Villa Magna is absolutely where I want to
0:43:47 stay in Madrid.
0:43:49 I mean, that’s just it.
0:43:52 Or when I’m in Sao Paulo, yeah, the Four Seasons would be great.
0:43:56 But again, actually, the Rosewood there is probably, in my opinion, the best hotel in
0:43:57 the world.
0:44:01 It’s the Faena in South Beach, and people can figure it out now.
0:44:07 So it sounds passé, but all of a sudden, product and innovation are the new bomb.
0:44:10 And the notion that you’re putting forward that they got too reliant on the mode of the
0:44:17 Nike brand and not focused on enough on new product, new innovation, new marketing channels,
0:44:22 I think that’s a worthwhile or a fair criticism.
0:44:27 But having said that, there are certain brands and certain items where brand plays a bigger
0:44:28 role.
0:44:29 You are a Panerai.
0:44:30 It means you’re having a midlife crisis.
0:44:35 You’re having a little bit of erectile dysfunction, have a little bit of money.
0:44:43 But if you have sex with me, if we have kids, your kids are more likely to survive than
0:44:44 if you…
0:44:47 Yeah, that’s what everyone thinks, exactly.
0:44:48 Then if you have…
0:44:49 Just go with it.
0:44:52 Then if you have sex with Ed, who’s wearing a fucking swatch watch.
0:44:59 So your watch, your watch, the degree you got from college, the only reason your girlfriend’s
0:45:03 with you is ’cause she heard you went to Princeton at, I’ve already spoken to her about this.
0:45:10 Your car and also your shoes are really powerful forms of self-expressive benefit.
0:45:15 And the self-expressive benefit of Nike, the registers across two, three, probably four
0:45:22 million consumers around the world is still unbelievable, translates unbelievable margin.
0:45:26 But the brand era, I agree with you, the brand era is officially over.
0:45:31 I don’t know if you’d call it the supply chain era or the innovation era, but the way you
0:45:35 communicate a better supply chain or the vessel for communication for supply chain or innovation
0:45:39 is still the brand and the logo.
0:45:41 Anything that’s on HBO, I’ll try it.
0:45:46 A big thing, a big show coming from HBO, I’m like, “Oh, I’ll watch it because they just
0:45:49 have a finer filter.
0:45:54 Any hotel from Rosewood, I will try because it does have, in my opinion, a finer filter.”
0:45:57 Now, does that mean brand is as big a mot?
0:46:01 Absolutely not ’cause I have Instagram, I have my social graph.
0:46:04 So what you’re saying holds true.
0:46:09 A company like Nike can, if it’s not careful, fall further faster, but just based on that
0:46:15 base of awareness and aspirational value and self-expressive benefit, they have just tons
0:46:16 of permission.
0:46:22 If they come out with a decent product line, I think you’re gonna see those revenues start
0:46:24 to start to pop again.
0:46:25 Yeah, I think that’s right.
0:46:28 Let’s take a look at the week ahead.
0:46:32 We’ll see the consumer price and producer price indices for September and third quarter
0:46:38 earning season kicks off with JV Morgan, Wells Fargo and BlackRock all reporting.
0:46:40 Scott, do you have any predictions for us?
0:46:45 Well, just based on what you said, I think churn is really important and I’d like to
0:46:48 think there’s some churn going on right now.
0:46:56 Companies like Starbucks, Intel, Disney, Nike, Estee Lauder, Warner Brothers, these
0:47:01 companies are, as they should be, getting kicked in the nuts.
0:47:03 And that makes room for new competitors.
0:47:07 I’d like to think, unfortunately, they’ve mostly been kicked in the butt by TikTok,
0:47:12 but anyways, and a weak Chinese consumer, but you are seeing a changing of the guard.
0:47:16 Too many old people running these companies.
0:47:22 Too many old people who are getting paid too much fucking money for lackluster performance.
0:47:26 So all super talented executives.
0:47:32 But I would speculate that Bob Iger and David Zaslaw are gonna announce or at least put
0:47:36 in place some sort of succession plan in the next year or two.
0:47:41 These are people who are both great executives, especially Bob Iger.
0:47:48 Zaslaw has made a third of a billion dollars to lose 60, 70% of his shareholders’ valuation.
0:47:53 And then the final one is, I think, Fabrizio Freida, the CEO at Estee Lauder.
0:47:56 That company has shit the bed the last five years.
0:47:58 They’re probably due.
0:47:59 He’s had a great career, a storied career.
0:48:00 He’s made a lot of money.
0:48:02 He deserves it.
0:48:06 But I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next three, six, 12 months, I usually get the
0:48:07 timing right.
0:48:11 We see succession strategies announced at Warner Brothers and Disney, and we see a
0:48:16 new CEO at Estee Lauder Company.
0:48:19 This episode was produced by Claire Miller and engineered by Benjamin Spencer.
0:48:22 Our associate producer is Alison Weiss, our executive producer is Catherine Dillon, Mia
0:48:27 Silverio is our research lead, and Drew Burroughs is our technical director.
0:48:30 Thank you for listening to ProfG Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
0:48:35 Join us on Thursday for a conversation with Mark Zandi only on ProfG Markets.
0:48:45 [MUSIC]
0:48:55 [MUSIC]
0:49:21 Nike withdrew its full year sales guidance ahead of its new CEO’s award.
0:49:22 Fucking Gingo-esque.
0:49:23 I’m sorry.
0:49:24 Go ahead.
0:49:29 Nike withdrew its full year sales guidance ahead of its new CEO’s award.
0:49:32 If they were white, would you think they’re smarter?
0:49:34 Their kids got a Princeton, does that help?
0:49:36 (laughs)

0:00:06 Will the VP debate move the needle in what’s shaping up to be a neck-and-neck election?
0:00:09 You never know in advance what will be the thing that matters and the thing that doesn’t
0:00:10 matter.
0:00:18 But Donald Trump will be almost 80, and J.D. Vance will be one cheeseburger away from
0:00:20 the presidency should they win.
0:00:25 I’m Preet Bharara, and this week, The Atlantic magazine’s David Frum joins me on my podcast
0:00:29 Stay Tuned with Preet to break down what happened at the debate.
0:00:31 The episode is out now.
0:00:35 Search and follow Stay Tuned with Preet wherever you get your podcasts.
0:00:36 Hi, everyone.
0:00:43 I’m Brené Brown, and I’d love to tell you about a new series that’s launching on Unlocking
0:00:44 Us.
0:00:47 I’m calling it the On My Heart and Mind Podcast series.
0:00:50 It’s going to include conversations with some of my favorite writers on topics ranging
0:00:55 from revolutionary love and gun ownership to menopause and finding joy and grief.
0:00:58 The first episode is available now, and I can’t wait for you to hear it.
0:01:01 All new episodes will drop on Wednesdays, and you can get them as soon as they’re out
0:01:06 by following Unlocking Us on Apple or wherever you listen to your podcasts.
0:01:10 Scott, how much time do you think you spend on TikTok every day?
0:01:16 I spend probably 10 minutes a day, maybe 15 on TikTok, 10 or 15.
0:01:19 I’m spending more time on Reels.
0:01:23 I think Reels has done a really good job.
0:01:25 There’s a lot that worries me about TikTok, but I really enjoyed it.
0:01:26 I think it’s amazing.
0:01:33 I would say I spend 15 minutes a day arguing with my son to get off his phone where he’s
0:01:36 on TikTok.
0:01:39 My son will go into the bathroom, and then I’ll look around 20 minutes later, and he’s
0:01:43 still in the bathroom, and I know he’s on TikTok, and I’ll bang on the door, and I’ll
0:01:49 be like, “Privacy,” and I’m like, “No, start masturbating, but put down the TikTok.”
0:01:52 So my kids go into the bathroom so they can go on TikTok.
0:01:56 I wish that, you know, anyways, not like a good teenage boy should be doing, not like
0:01:58 a healthy teenage boy.
0:01:59 Anyways.
0:02:00 How much time do you think they’re spending?
0:02:06 Too much.
0:02:11 Welcome to First Time Founders, 1.6 billion.
0:02:18 That’s how many people use TikTok today, with an average daily viewing time of 90 minutes.
0:02:23 TikTok has become one of the most powerful platforms in entertainment, and with the rise
0:02:29 of short form content has come the decline of the traditional film and TV industry since
0:02:34 the pandemic, one in five moviegoers has disappeared.
0:02:39 My next guest decided to take advantage of this shift by creating a production studio
0:02:43 that makes television on TikTok.
0:02:49 After launching in 2023, this founder raised venture funding at a $7.5 million valuation,
0:02:56 and with over 400 million views across multiple successful TikTok shows, he is well on his
0:03:00 way to changing how and where we watch television.
0:03:07 This is my conversation with Adam Faiz, the head coach and co-founder of Gymnasium.
0:03:11 Adam, thank you for joining me.
0:03:12 Thank you for having me.
0:03:16 Let’s start with a couple of stats, and I’m just going to get your reaction to it.
0:03:22 Since 2022, film and TV production in the US has fallen 40%.
0:03:28 In the past decade, ticket sales for movies have fallen 40%.
0:03:34 The unemployment rate in Hollywood is currently three times the national average, it’s 12.5%.
0:03:38 And I’m going to give you a few different stats, which is that the average TikTok user
0:03:42 spends over an hour on TikTok every day.
0:03:50 The TikTok user base since 2018 has six Xs, and crucially 70% of Gen Z say that if given
0:03:55 the choice, they would choose TikTok over any other streaming platform.
0:04:00 So my first question to you is, is TikTok killing Hollywood?
0:04:06 Yes, but I would also say that Hollywood’s killing Hollywood, and I say that as someone
0:04:10 that worked in it for eight years, the reality is I’m one of those people in the last stat
0:04:11 you mentioned.
0:04:14 I would choose TikTok over any streaming platform I just would.
0:04:18 I worked in traditional Hollywood studios my whole life, I worked for producers my whole
0:04:24 life, and the reality is it’s too big, too bloated, and too slow to ever make an impact
0:04:25 in this generation.
0:04:28 And when any kid out there with an iPhone and a microphone in their pocket can create
0:04:32 something on a whim and post it within a matter of hours, you’re just not going to compete
0:04:36 with that speed, and that’s what we’re trying to do with Gymnasium.
0:04:38 So give us the story on Gymnasium.
0:04:39 What is it actually doing?
0:04:46 And just a little highlight here, you have accumulated over 400 million views on TikTok
0:04:50 just from creating your own content, from basically treating TikTok like TV.
0:04:52 Tell us about Gymnasium.
0:04:53 What does the business do?
0:04:57 We really think that Shoreform content is the closest thing we have to the TV that you
0:04:58 and I grew up watching.
0:05:03 And so in our minds, Gymnasium is going to create the next generation of TV show hits.
0:05:06 We create things that look and feel like TV.
0:05:10 These are mostly unscripted formats that are mostly comedic, usually with rising talent.
0:05:14 Our biggest show is called Boy Room, and it’s where this girl investigates how disgusting
0:05:17 men’s bedrooms are and then gives advice on how to make them better.
0:05:21 Levi seems to care about having a nice room, but then leaves piles of dirty laundry and
0:05:23 like seven dirty dishes.
0:05:27 The coolest part about all of this is you can hear an idea that you think is really
0:05:28 good.
0:05:29 You can go and shoot a pilot within a week.
0:05:31 Let’s say it’s good enough to go shoot a few more episodes.
0:05:35 You’ll know pretty quickly, usually within the first four or five episodes, if the audience
0:05:37 actually wants this show or not.
0:05:41 And so the time it takes for us to know if we should, you know, continue on with the
0:05:45 show or cancel it is probably the same amount of time it takes for Hollywood to set a pitch
0:05:46 meeting.
0:05:49 And this all kind of started because of the feelings I had in traditional.
0:05:52 I was really frustrated with not being able to sell any formats.
0:05:56 I was frustrated with the development timelines, even when I was just working on the other
0:05:57 side of the aisle at a studio.
0:06:01 And at the same time, during the pandemic, I became addicted to TikTok.
0:06:03 I just did.
0:06:06 And I saw that the more I was using TikTok, the less I was watching TV.
0:06:10 And so there was like that light bulb moment of like, if that’s me, and I grew up being
0:06:14 the most obsessed with movies and TV shows kid, you could possibly find.
0:06:16 And I’m in my mid-20s at that point.
0:06:18 Anyone younger than me, this is just TV and we’re cooked.
0:06:23 And I remember going into my boss the next day and just being like, he was like, what’s
0:06:24 wrong?
0:06:25 Respectfully you are cooked.
0:06:26 So we sit down.
0:06:27 He’s like, what’s wrong?
0:06:28 And I’m like, I don’t know what we’re doing here.
0:06:29 He’s like, what do you mean?
0:06:33 I’m like, we’re arguing over what $100 million movie we should make that will come out five
0:06:38 years from now if we’re lucky that maybe 20 people on Brentwood think is like riveting.
0:06:40 But at the end of the day, like it is not the center of culture that made us go in this
0:06:41 industry in the first place.
0:06:44 Like that center of culture is now this thing right here.
0:06:46 And at that point, it was also a scary feeling for me.
0:06:48 I had never made digital content before.
0:06:50 I’d never even posted a TikTok myself.
0:06:53 And so all I had was there was an opportunity to move to New York to work for this Web
0:06:55 3 startup.
0:07:00 And they had enough sort of VC capital to take a bet on me believing that like, let’s
0:07:02 go see what happens if you go make TV shows for TikTok.
0:07:05 So they gave me like a modest budget of 25 grand.
0:07:06 Let me get that.
0:07:07 I didn’t know this.
0:07:09 So you go to work for a crypto company.
0:07:10 I did.
0:07:11 Unfortunately.
0:07:12 They have too much money.
0:07:13 And they say, and you want to make movies.
0:07:16 So you use the crypto money to make movies.
0:07:17 I’ll back up in further.
0:07:18 So this company.
0:07:19 This is what the crypto industry comes in.
0:07:20 I know.
0:07:21 I know.
0:07:22 And by the way, I will say I was never a crypto person.
0:07:23 I’m still not a crypto person.
0:07:26 But there was a time where I thought maybe I was the dumb one in the room.
0:07:31 And then I realized now I was actually had some sanity, but this company had essentially
0:07:34 sold a half a million dollars worth of NFTs to come make a dating show.
0:07:36 And they had never made a show before in their entire lives.
0:07:39 And so somehow I get connected with them and they’re like, Hey, would you want to come
0:07:42 to move to New York for a few months and come like produce this dating show?
0:07:46 The idea was if you owned an NFT, you could like vote in the bachelor, bachelor in each
0:07:47 episode.
0:07:48 Right.
0:07:49 And we go and make the show.
0:07:50 We spend half a million dollars making it.
0:07:56 And parts of it were so unsuccessful, which was like online, I think in its entire run
0:08:00 we had something like 15,000 views on YouTube, like literally nothing.
0:08:04 But we did do these like fun in-person premieres every Sunday where we’d have like a live audience.
0:08:07 They’d watch the episode and we’d go straight into a live talk show afterwards with like
0:08:10 all the guests from that episode and like celebrity guest judges, whatever.
0:08:14 That part grew from like 200 people the first week to selling out Webster Hall five weeks
0:08:16 later with a thousand people in the audience.
0:08:20 And so there was clearly like something like, okay, like this is reminding people of like
0:08:25 the old days of TRL or SNL and like it’s messy, but maybe people liked the mess.
0:08:29 But my biggest frustration was like, I just came to digital and blew half a million dollars
0:08:33 through, you know, I think that 15,000 people watching, that’s not what I came to the space
0:08:34 to do.
0:08:39 And so at that point I sat down with the founders of the company and just said, look, it’s TikTok.
0:08:41 This is the thing that I use every single day.
0:08:44 This is the thing that I think we can generate IP from scratch on.
0:08:48 Just give me a budget of like 25 grand and let’s just go see what happens.
0:08:52 And so they said, yes, and I started sitting down with the people that I thought were really
0:08:57 great talent at that point, the first of which being Karim Rama, who now hosts Subway takes.
0:08:58 Yeah.
0:09:01 He’s like, I have this one idea that I pitched to every network and streamer for five years
0:09:02 and no one’s wanted it.
0:09:03 I was like, what is it?
0:09:06 He’s like, I want to hail a cab in New York and I want to tell the driver to take me to
0:09:09 their favorite place in the city and keep the meter running.
0:09:12 I was like, that’s a phenomenal fucking idea for a show.
0:09:15 Two days later, we’re standing on Delancey, we’re like trying to hail a cab.
0:09:19 Each cab is just passing by, they’re like freaked out from the cameras until this one
0:09:22 guy pulls up and he’s like, you want to pay me $300, I’ll be in your show.
0:09:26 And he takes us to Jackson Heights, we eat Pakistani food with him.
0:09:28 And you could tell when you’re filming it, you’re like, this is like a magical moment.
0:09:30 This feels like Bourdain.
0:09:31 We end up cutting it down.
0:09:35 We post it on account with zero followers three days later.
0:09:37 Taxi.
0:09:40 Take me to your favorite place and keep the meter running.
0:09:42 Where do you want to go?
0:09:43 Wherever you want to go.
0:09:47 Next morning, Kareem walks into a Bourdain guy and someone comes up to him and is like,
0:09:48 I fucking love your show, man.
0:09:51 And he’s like, wait, who are you talking to?
0:09:52 Who are you talking to?
0:09:56 And Kareem pulls out his phone and that one episode that was posted on account with zero
0:09:58 followers had over a million and a half views.
0:09:59 Unbelievable.
0:10:02 And what we saw in the back end was 98% of that audience at that point was in New York
0:10:03 City.
0:10:08 So it’s like overnight, he had become a celebrity in the city with a basically local television
0:10:09 show that we had produced.
0:10:12 That show went on to have over a hundred million views on its own.
0:10:13 It traveled to London.
0:10:14 It traveled to Miami.
0:10:16 It traveled to Egypt.
0:10:21 And I think that really set the stage for what we saw as like this much bigger vision.
0:10:26 And so based on the success of that show, I was sort of sitting there being like, look,
0:10:28 my passion is being a producer.
0:10:29 It’s not working for a crypto company.
0:10:33 And at the end of the day, I do think there’s a world where the next great television studio
0:10:36 is going to be made right here on this platform.
0:10:38 The biggest question is just, how are you going to make money doing that?
0:10:40 Because this platform will not pay you.
0:10:41 Are you making money?
0:10:42 That’s my question.
0:10:43 Yes.
0:10:46 And what I would say is like, it still is the wild, wild West, but we’re trying to be
0:10:50 a lot smarter about the shows we produce to sort of like make sure that we can make money
0:10:52 off of these things.
0:10:56 The reality of the situation is like, I think Hollywood is going to start facing a lesson
0:10:59 that the music industry learned 20 years ago, which is that the content itself is not
0:11:01 going to be the thing that makes money anymore.
0:11:05 And so for us, assuming that we’re going to make zero dollars from any platform that
0:11:08 we’re on, we focus on sort of like two angles.
0:11:10 One is brand integration into our content.
0:11:13 And the other is seeing if the show that we’re producing might actually generate a brand
0:11:14 to come out of.
0:11:19 And so what I mean by that is like, on Boy Room, our biggest show right now, the reason
0:11:23 we love that idea so much wasn’t just because Rachel Coster is the funniest person we never
0:11:28 met, but we really thought if we can make this a viral show, there’s a home renovation
0:11:29 component to this.
0:11:33 And maybe we can convince like an e-commerce giant to come in and partner with us in the
0:11:36 next season of the show to start renovating men’s bedrooms.
0:11:40 That show blew up in a way that we had never experienced before.
0:11:43 It got more press attention than any show we’ve ever worked on.
0:11:47 And again, Rachel was someone who had 3,000 followers on Instagram when we found her and
0:11:52 now cannot walk down the street in New York anymore without being accosted for photos.
0:11:56 We started talking to these e-commerce giants pretty quickly as the press started picking
0:12:00 up being like, “Guys, we have this bigger vision for the show and can we convince you
0:12:03 to buy into this thing that no one’s really ever done before?”
0:12:07 And after months of negotiating with a few of these companies, we just closed a massive
0:12:11 deal around the next season of the show where we are going to be able to actually start renovating
0:12:17 these men’s bedrooms in New York and LA with furniture from this platform.
0:12:19 And so that’s like a first of its kind thing.
0:12:23 And I think there will be trials and errors as we continue to go here, but I will say
0:12:28 in talking with these brands, they’re for the first time realizing like we’re pulling
0:12:30 spending on TV.
0:12:34 We like sponsoring influencers, but it’s not that great of a business for us.
0:12:39 And so like we need to find more of a mainstay home for where we can put our brand.
0:12:41 And the reality is like shows are a safer bet.
0:12:44 Presumably, you’re taking 100% of the advertising dollars, right?
0:12:48 If you’re creating those direct relationships, which is great.
0:12:53 How does it compare to YouTube because, you know, YouTube, you can make money.
0:12:54 YouTube pays you.
0:12:56 TikTok doesn’t pay, there’s no pay.
0:13:00 Of those 400 million views we’ve gotten, I think we’ve probably been paid maybe like
0:13:02 $15,000 from TikTok.
0:13:03 So like it’s just not even.
0:13:06 So TikTok is paying you, but they’re just paying you a terrible, wow, okay, I didn’t realize
0:13:07 that.
0:13:09 So how are all these TikTokers, like how are the…
0:13:10 It’s all brand sponsorship.
0:13:15 I mean, I think I just read a stat today that said something like influencers made $1 billion
0:13:19 off of platform revenue this year, but they made $8 billion from sponsorship.
0:13:22 So like clearly there’s just a lot more money from sponsorship.
0:13:23 Yeah.
0:13:25 Exactly the way you should be doing it, right?
0:13:29 So let’s just talk a little bit more about TikTok versus Hollywood.
0:13:34 One thing that I find interesting is this idea of decision fatigue.
0:13:41 Netflix watches, people who watch Netflix spend 78 hours per year deciding what to watch.
0:13:47 So talk to us about how your view on decision fatigue, how does decision fatigue play into
0:13:48 the rise of TikTok today?
0:13:52 I mean, the reality is like, I think that’s where original TV was better in some ways.
0:13:55 You could just scroll the channels and like you’re eventually going to find something
0:13:56 that you want.
0:13:58 And I think that is what TikTok is tapping into.
0:14:03 If I have an hour to spare and I am on my couch, I’m going to go on TikTok.
0:14:06 I’m not going to open Netflix and do the 78 hours per year of scrolling.
0:14:09 It’s just, I know I’m not going to find the thing that I want to watch.
0:14:12 And so I think that that’s the thing, like these platforms are so personalized to what
0:14:16 your interests are at this point that you’re more likely to be entertained.
0:14:20 And that is where at the end of the day, like, look, our content is on every platform.
0:14:24 We want to be wherever you are because we don’t know what platform you’re on.
0:14:28 But I do think TikTok is the best player in the space only because the consumer habit
0:14:30 that makes you open it is I want to watch entertainment.
0:14:32 It’s not, I want to watch things from my friends.
0:14:34 It’s not, I want to talk to my friends.
0:14:35 It’s literally, I want to be entertained.
0:14:36 And that is what TV is.
0:14:37 Yeah.
0:14:41 There’s this other great start, which is that 43% of TikTok users say that they use TikTok
0:14:44 for quote, mindless entertainment.
0:14:50 How do you as a TikTok production company grapple with that?
0:14:54 How do you grapple with the fact that you want to create content that is ultimately supposed
0:14:56 to be mindless or is it supposed to be something else?
0:15:01 I mean, the thing that I think about the most is like for every person that goes on TikTok,
0:15:04 you’re probably consuming about 200 videos in that session.
0:15:10 And that includes everything from like a funny meme to some horrifying news around the world
0:15:13 to, you know, someone doing a dance to a music video.
0:15:14 Like it’s just like, it’s so different.
0:15:18 And so it’s like, how do you create that concept that sticks out so much?
0:15:21 And then you watch that one episode and you’re like, give me 500 more of these.
0:15:23 And that is kind of what we strive for.
0:15:27 So like everything we’ve ever made is very much like a format where you can kind of plug
0:15:32 and play every episode is a little bit different of the same thing just so that you can go
0:15:33 and binge.
0:15:36 And what we’ve heard from our fans is like, even on a show like keep the meter running,
0:15:40 I have friends who found that show after episode 50 and they end up spending two hours in bed
0:15:43 binging every episode, but in backwards.
0:15:46 And so I think like that is what we strive for in any show that we make.
0:15:51 And it does just mean looking back a little bit to like the early 2000s of cable TV formats
0:15:52 for inspiration.
0:15:54 So what do you think is the secret source then?
0:15:59 I kind of think of you as like the king of virality when it comes to TikTok and short
0:16:00 form content.
0:16:02 What makes a show great?
0:16:08 Why when Rachel said, I want to look at boys discussing rooms, what was so compelling about
0:16:09 that as an idea?
0:16:10 I mean, it’s really, it’s simple.
0:16:11 It’s two things.
0:16:13 You have to have the best talent.
0:16:15 You really just have to have a star.
0:16:19 And they’re not easy to find, but when you find them, that’s what makes this thing perform
0:16:20 the best.
0:16:22 The other is you have to have a format that you can’t look away from.
0:16:27 When you’re watching the opening frame of Boy Room and it’s some disgusting men’s bedrooms
0:16:30 and Philly without a door, you’re going to keep watching.
0:16:34 And thankfully Rachel can carry it to the end because like you now love her as a host.
0:16:38 When Kareem gets in a cab and he tells the driver, take me to a fair place and keep the
0:16:40 meter running, you’re not going to stop watching.
0:16:43 Like there’s a party that’s like, I want to ask that question to a cab driver.
0:16:46 And so it really is those two factors.
0:16:51 And the reality is like we try so many different pilots internally and kill so many shows because
0:16:53 it doesn’t get to that point.
0:16:57 We even just made a show called Bodega Run that we only did, I think the 10 or 11 episodes
0:17:02 of and we canceled it because look, the first three episodes actually got a combined like
0:17:06 30 million views across YouTube and TikTok combined.
0:17:08 We didn’t want to watch it.
0:17:12 Like it would come on my feet and I would scroll and the last six episodes, I think
0:17:15 we were representative of that because it had to combine like 200,000 views and it’s
0:17:17 like clearly there’s not a consistency here.
0:17:19 You don’t want to watch a hundred episodes.
0:17:20 And what was the premise of Bodega Run?
0:17:23 It’s kind of like our version of supermarket sweep.
0:17:27 It was like we would go to real life Bodegas, we’d find someone outside, we’d say you have
0:17:31 60 seconds, go find these three items and check out and if you do, we’ll give you $100.
0:17:33 And they had these like GoPros attached to their heads.
0:17:37 It was like very much like 360 camera looking at what they’re looking at and we had cameras
0:17:39 that would go into the Bodegas.
0:17:46 And it was funny.
0:17:47 But it wasn’t a hit show.
0:17:51 It just didn’t have that quality of a really amazing format.
0:17:55 And so I think game shows are the space that we’d like to be in, but it’s a little tougher
0:17:58 to crack and have that thing that’s like perfect.
0:18:03 Whereas diving into a certain world and crafting a format around that is always going to be
0:18:06 more fun for us.
0:18:23 We’ll be right back.
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0:20:38 We’re back with First Time Founders.
0:20:40 You worked in Hollywood.
0:20:44 You were a fan of TV shows and movies and it kind of feels like what’s sort of happening
0:20:53 with the entertainment space is the virtues of long form, which is basically the virtues
0:20:54 of narrative.
0:20:58 It feels like narrative has basically been thrown away that someone who can write a great
0:21:02 story with a beginning, middle and an end actually isn’t useful anymore.
0:21:06 What matters most is basically just the premise.
0:21:11 It’s like, can your first sentence be interesting and that’s all that matters.
0:21:13 Do you feel like that’s kind of what’s happening to entertainment?
0:21:18 Yes, and to correct one thing just because I don’t want to be destroyed by the people
0:21:20 I do look up to in Hollywood still.
0:21:23 I don’t think movies and TV shows are going away forever.
0:21:25 I think that we’re going to watch far fewer of them.
0:21:29 I do think that means that the ones you do watch become that much more impactful.
0:21:34 By the way, that’s what the market is telling us because the top movies are taking all of
0:21:35 the revenue now.
0:21:38 And when you do have a moment like Barbier, Oppenheimer, it’s like, yeah, everyone around
0:21:39 the world watched that movie.
0:21:42 That is a huge impact on society.
0:21:45 And so I’m not dooming and glooming in that sense, but I am saying that like the old days
0:21:49 of spending three hours flipping channels your TV are completely gone.
0:21:52 You’re going to watch TV for sports, you’re going to watch it for like the big hyped up
0:21:55 Netflix show that everyone’s talking about, but otherwise you’re going to be on your
0:21:56 phone.
0:22:00 And so on the like first three seconds at all, it is super important.
0:22:02 You do need to have a really interesting premise.
0:22:05 I think there’s people that have different interpretations of what that means.
0:22:08 I think there’s the side of Mr. Beast that’s like, don’t stop watching.
0:22:13 We’re going to blow up a school bus and like, okay, I’ll watch fine, but I think we’re trying
0:22:16 to do something completely different, which is just like, what’s a really fun idea of
0:22:20 just again, a world that you want to be in while you’re in bed?
0:22:23 Only I’ve noted, I mean, you mentioned that most of your shows are unscripted, all of
0:22:24 them are unscripted.
0:22:25 All of them are unscripted.
0:22:26 All of them.
0:22:32 It feels like the TikTok YouTube sort of creator economy trend is in the unscripted
0:22:33 direction.
0:22:39 I can’t really think of anyone on these platforms who’s creating really popular scripted content.
0:22:40 Why do you think that is?
0:22:43 Why, why are the winners here doing unscripted?
0:22:46 Look, there’s two sides where scripted comes into play.
0:22:49 There’s sketch comedy and some of these sketch comedy groups like please don’t destroy and
0:22:51 it becoming sort of the stars of SNL.
0:22:55 The other side is there’s actually a really amazing generation of young horror filmmakers
0:22:59 who I think are like, are generations James Wands, who every single day are putting out
0:23:03 some of the scariest fucking things I’ve ever seen in my entire life.
0:23:06 Those people will be using these platforms to become the next generation of filmmakers.
0:23:11 I think why you don’t see more like dramas or sort of another side of the scripted narrative
0:23:13 part, is it just more expensive?
0:23:16 Like as soon as you have a script, you need actors, as soon as you have actors, you need
0:23:19 makeup, then you need props, you need a set, you need lighting, and then you need a grip
0:23:23 and a gaffer, and then you kind of end up being stuck in the same situation.
0:23:28 And so I think it is the low budget formats that are going to thrive the most on these
0:23:29 platforms.
0:23:33 And if you look at just traditional Hollywood, the low budget genres have always been unscripted
0:23:34 in horror.
0:23:38 It sounds like we don’t care that much about quality anymore because the experience is
0:23:41 only going to last 30 seconds and you can just scroll.
0:23:44 And that’s where I think I was always taught as a young person who made a bunch of short
0:23:49 films is like, don’t think that you need an Ari Alexa, think that you need a good script
0:23:53 and that you do need good audio, that’s the one thing you really do need.
0:23:56 But otherwise, like no one cares what camera you film this thing on.
0:24:00 And the other thing is we’re dealing with a generation of kids who have consumed advertisements
0:24:02 since the day they were born.
0:24:05 And so I actually think at this point, when they see an Ari Alexa filmed piece of content
0:24:09 on their feed, they think it’s an ad and they want to scroll immediately.
0:24:13 We shoot everything we do on Sony FX3s, it’s like the perfect balance of looking like it
0:24:17 was made for you while still feeling professional.
0:24:19 And so like when you do scroll up on one of our shows.
0:24:24 But what do you mean by looking like it was made for you, like sort of looking at casual?
0:24:27 It still feels like it fits on the platform.
0:24:30 It doesn’t feel like, oh, this person spent a million dollars and is trying to fit in.
0:24:34 It’s like, okay, this was like just low-fi enough where it still makes sense here, but
0:24:37 it’s high-fi enough where it’s not just like an iPhone video.
0:24:41 And I think that’s probably the camera we’re going to continue to film our content on forever
0:24:43 in the short film space.
0:24:44 Why is that important?
0:24:48 This is something I’ve been finding really interesting about our generation where we
0:24:58 have sort of this weird obsession with authenticity and we’re extremely sensitive to bullshit.
0:25:02 I think because we’ve consumed so many ads, I mean, the number is we consume 300 ads per
0:25:06 hour, which is up tenfold from what our parents were experiencing.
0:25:12 So it does feel that we are extremely sensitive or we can just sort of sniff ads out out of
0:25:14 nowhere.
0:25:18 But what you’re describing is interesting because you’re kind of saying we are intentionally
0:25:23 making it low production to make it sort of look more authentic, perhaps, than it actually
0:25:24 is.
0:25:25 Take us through what you’re…
0:25:28 What I would also say, it’s a cost thing too.
0:25:33 Shooting on these Sony FX3 is like, my sets have never been more than three people, you
0:25:36 know, and so you have two people both holding the cameras that also have the microphones
0:25:37 on them.
0:25:38 And you have a host and a producer.
0:25:39 Like, that’s what our crew looks like.
0:25:43 And if I had an Ari Alexa, I would need a DP, I would need lighting, I would need a
0:25:44 grip and a gaffer.
0:25:48 And like, the reality is spending all that money is not going to make a better piece
0:25:49 of content on these platforms.
0:25:53 So it’s both something that I think performs better on the platform, but it’s also what
0:25:54 allows our business model to work.
0:25:59 Like, to put it simply, Season 1 and Boy Room, we produced 22 episodes, only 14 of which
0:26:00 came out.
0:26:04 Some of the guys just either weren’t messy enough or like were pretending to be messy
0:26:05 and we threw those episodes out.
0:26:10 But of those 22 episodes that we shot, the entire thing cost us $48,000.
0:26:11 That’s impossible.
0:26:14 That’s a coffee budget on an HBO show.
0:26:20 And so like, again, it’s like, but then we found the market fit, right?
0:26:23 Like we know now that Boy Room is a hit show and there’s a world where that does turn into
0:26:24 a TV show at some point.
0:26:28 And like, this kind of turns into the comic book model where it’s like, we can go generate
0:26:32 IP at a fraction of the cost of Hollywood and then decide what we want to do with it.
0:26:35 I think there’s a version where some of our shows turn into just 18 to 20 minute YouTube
0:26:36 shows.
0:26:38 I think there’s another world where some of them turn into TV shows.
0:26:42 But at the end of the day, it is creating IP at a fraction of the cost.
0:26:46 One of your investors is kind of peak Hollywood.
0:26:51 That is Jeremy Zimmer, who’s the CEO of UTA, which is basically one of the biggest entertainment
0:26:55 talented agencies in the world.
0:26:56 What does he think of you?
0:26:58 But more generally, what does Hollywood think?
0:26:59 Have people come up to you?
0:27:00 Do they like you?
0:27:01 Are they scared of you?
0:27:04 It’s a combination of all of them.
0:27:08 And I was so honored that Jeremy wanted to be in the round.
0:27:12 He’s become a close friend and it’s been really nice to be able to call on him and take his
0:27:13 brain.
0:27:18 I think the older generation of entertainment sees the rising tide and knows to start looking
0:27:20 at where things are going.
0:27:24 I also think the older generation have kids old enough to recognize their viewing habits
0:27:27 have changed and can actually be a witness to the fact of like, oh, we’re fucked.
0:27:29 They have to experience it themselves.
0:27:33 Whereas like the 30-something-year-old creative executive who grew up in a different industry
0:27:38 who’s hoping to still have their big Oscar moment, they hate me and they hate TikTok
0:27:39 and they hate the platform.
0:27:43 And you can see it anytime there’s any article in anything we produce, all the comments are
0:27:45 like, can we just ban this thing already?
0:27:46 I hate this thing.
0:27:49 And it’s like, I wish they would just download TikTok because I know they would have actually
0:27:53 the greatest time of all time and then they would start agreeing with it.
0:27:56 The other thing is like, we’re not supposed to be competition.
0:27:57 Come on in.
0:27:58 The water is warm.
0:28:01 The history of television can be recreated on this platform and it’s not going to be
0:28:03 done by just one studio.
0:28:06 You mentioned, can we ban this thing already?
0:28:07 TikTok might get banned.
0:28:09 What do you think of that?
0:28:11 It’s a touchy subject.
0:28:16 What I will say is I think you can’t put the short form content thing back in the hat.
0:28:19 I think we love consuming content this way.
0:28:23 And so if it were to go away tomorrow, I think some of that viewership would go to Instagram
0:28:24 Reels.
0:28:27 I think some would go to YouTube Shorts, although I think YouTube is afraid of shorts
0:28:31 a little bit because it cannibalizes what’s an amazing business for them, which is longer
0:28:32 form content.
0:28:37 I think there’s probably space for a new app to come in only because of what I said earlier,
0:28:42 which is like that consumer habit about TikTok of just opening it to consume content is not
0:28:43 the same on Instagram.
0:28:48 Instagram, I’m going on first to see my DMs, look at my stories, see things from my friends.
0:28:52 And then maybe I’ll get stuck in like a brain rot, you know, Reels feed.
0:28:54 But it’s not the thing that I’m going on Instagram for.
0:28:57 So I just think you can’t put this thing back in the bag.
0:29:00 And for us, like we’re going to continue to be on every single platform that’s available
0:29:03 because we think that we’re going to forever have the best content on that platform.
0:29:10 I’d like to get into Instagram Reels, 730 million active users on Instagram Reels.
0:29:14 So it’s sort of, it’s still behind TikTok, which is at 1.6 billion, but it’s definitely
0:29:15 catching up.
0:29:20 Breakdown for us, why you think that’s an important distinction that Instagram Reels
0:29:26 is a component of the Instagram experience versus the entire product.
0:29:31 Why do you think that makes it so substantially different from TikTok?
0:29:35 It’s almost too social, you know, and I think the thing that’s so magical at TikTok is like,
0:29:38 again, I actually don’t want to see content from my friends because they probably don’t
0:29:39 make good videos.
0:29:40 Right.
0:29:43 And when I’m like watching a funny video on TikTok from a stranger, the first thing I
0:29:46 do is open the comments and like I read other funny comments and like that’s my experience.
0:29:49 Like I don’t need to have my friends be on that platform.
0:29:51 With Instagram, it’s tricky.
0:29:54 I think there’s so many distractions on the platform because you have incoming DMs and
0:29:59 you want to see posts from your friends that longer form content, like just kind of suffers
0:30:00 on the platform.
0:30:03 I will say like Boy Room does pretty amazingly on Reels.
0:30:07 We get anywhere from half a million to a million viewers an episode on the platform.
0:30:09 So like, still really happy with it.
0:30:13 But I think like when I open my Reels tab, the average length of the video that I would
0:30:17 say it shows me is probably around 20 seconds long and almost all of them are memes.
0:30:22 And that works really well for the platform because the entire point of Reels on Instagram
0:30:25 is they want to show you content that you’re going to send to your friends because that
0:30:28 makes them watch the content and like you’re more likely to send a meme to your friend
0:30:30 than maybe an episode of a show.
0:30:32 So I’m excited to see how they change that.
0:30:36 I’ve heard rumors that they want to do longer form content and start prioritizing that in
0:30:37 the algorithm.
0:30:39 I hope they do.
0:30:42 And we’re just going to continue posting there until that happens.
0:30:46 But the only difference for us as well is like on Instagram Reels, in order to be in
0:30:49 the algorithm, your content has to be under 90 seconds long.
0:30:53 Sometimes our TikTok content will be two and a half, three, three and a half minutes long.
0:30:58 And so we end up cutting our content differently based on the platform we’re posting it to.
0:31:02 How have you found sort of grappling with the algorithm?
0:31:08 I feel like that’s another huge part of this because in Hollywood, it used to be that the
0:31:11 barrier to entry was could you get past the executives?
0:31:14 Did the guy in the room like you?
0:31:18 And it’s now at a point where it’s does the algorithm like you?
0:31:23 And in a lot of ways that makes things easier because it means that you can just sort of
0:31:28 pull yourself up by your bootstraps and just get involved immediately at very low costs.
0:31:30 But also you don’t even know what they want.
0:31:32 We don’t know how the algorithm works.
0:31:35 It’s this sort of mythical beast that we can’t truly understand.
0:31:37 You’ve kind of cracked it though.
0:31:39 What is the algorithm want?
0:31:40 Good shit.
0:31:46 I’ve never disagreed with what it has made perform for us and what it hasn’t like literally
0:31:47 as a company.
0:31:50 Anytime we’ve posted something that hasn’t performed the next we’ve all been like, yeah,
0:31:52 it kind of sucked.
0:31:53 That was good.
0:31:54 That was pretty shitty.
0:31:56 And I think like bodega run was part of that like by the end of it.
0:32:00 It was just like we didn’t have any heart in the show whatsoever.
0:32:01 And so I don’t know.
0:32:05 That might be my famous last words and the algorithm shifts and all of a sudden I’m fucked.
0:32:08 But I haven’t seen that to be the case yet.
0:32:12 You know, I think it’s really good about testing content in front of an audience until it finds
0:32:14 the audience that will like your content.
0:32:17 You know, I’ll say like a story from Boyd Room.
0:32:22 We posted the first episode on Instagram, gets like 250k views, we’re like, that’s sick.
0:32:25 Posted on TikTok gets 147 views, you’re like, okay.
0:32:29 Post the second episode on Instagram gets 300,000 views.
0:32:31 On TikTok gets like 205 views.
0:32:32 We’re like, what is happening?
0:32:34 This is an amazing show.
0:32:36 Maybe it’s not showing it to people.
0:32:39 I’m starting to have conspiracy theories, I have 18 accounts in my phone, maybe it’s
0:32:40 shadow banning me.
0:32:41 That’s the best.
0:32:43 Everyone thinks that’s shadow ban when their content doesn’t perform.
0:32:46 Yeah, your content just sucks.
0:32:49 But I look in the back end and it’s like, no, it is showing it on the for you page and
0:32:51 I can see when people are dropping off and it’s in the first three seconds.
0:32:53 I’m like, okay, what’s happening in the first three seconds?
0:32:56 And it’s this like loud TV show intro.
0:32:59 Welcome to Boyd Room, the show where we investigate boys’ rooms.
0:33:00 We’re like, okay.
0:33:01 Episode three, no intro.
0:33:04 We’re just going to drop into the show.
0:33:09 That one difference was enough to get 4 million views in 24 hours and over 30,000 followers
0:33:10 on that account.
0:33:11 It’s good.
0:33:12 It knows what it’s doing.
0:33:15 And that change was the right creative call on that show.
0:33:18 And so I think like, again, people think that they have to cater to the algorithm in the
0:33:22 Mr. Beast way and we’re trying to prove that you don’t.
0:33:24 We’ll be right back.
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0:35:57 We’re back with First Time Founders.
0:36:00 You recently went to the DNC.
0:36:01 Why did you do that?
0:36:05 I actually always say that you can track the changes in consumption media through politics
0:36:07 faster than anything else.
0:36:13 I think about Obama going on between two firms in 2011, I want to say, to talk about Obamacare.
0:36:18 I can even remember in 2016 when Trump won, the still remaining importance of the late
0:36:23 night hosts kind of like shedding a tear on stage for America of like, oh my God, Trump
0:36:25 is president.
0:36:30 And you look at it now, and it’s like Trump is going on Aidan Ross, Kamala is giving more
0:36:34 access to creators and influencers than to, you know, the press.
0:36:38 And I think that’s reflective of like where everything’s going because they need the people,
0:36:39 they need the votes.
0:36:41 So they’re going to go where the people are.
0:36:44 And so politics just turns in a much faster rate.
0:36:48 We were at the DNC because we brought city council member, Chio, say, from Bed-San Crown
0:36:53 Heights over there, who is someone that we’ve worked really closely with out of passion.
0:36:57 Really believe in him being a future voice of the Democratic Party.
0:37:03 And we started working with him because last summer, New York’s rent guidelines board was
0:37:06 going to decide how much to increase rent stabilized rents.
0:37:09 And they were debating whether or not to raise it by 16%.
0:37:12 Because post-pandemic, people are struggling, a lot of people are going to be put on the
0:37:14 streets if something like that passes.
0:37:19 And she comes to me and my friend, Peter McIndoo, who started Birds Aren’t Real.
0:37:24 And he says, “I need to get people to this hearing because the people that this policy
0:37:29 will affect don’t know that there’s a hearing on Thursday where they are waiting to hear
0:37:30 testimonies.”
0:37:33 And he’s like, “I have 2,000 followers, I have no idea how to engage, like the greater
0:37:34 New York area.
0:37:35 I think I’m fucked.”
0:37:38 And we’re like, “Don’t worry, we go to his office with just an iPhone.
0:37:43 We script this video that kind of gets that message out in just a perfect, quick, 60-second
0:37:44 way.”
0:37:48 That video gets a million views in 24 hours from New Yorkers.
0:37:55 Three days later, for a room that had a capacity of 250 people, over 1,000 people showed up.
0:37:59 And every single person in line, I have the video, shakes cheese hand and says, “I’m
0:38:01 only here because of your video.”
0:38:06 New York ends up only raising rent stabilized rent by 3%.
0:38:11 So that for us was our first foray ever into politics and figuring out how can we use what
0:38:15 we know about these platforms to help push policy, to help make change around the country
0:38:16 and maybe the world.
0:38:21 And so I think for us, we have a huge interest in just kind of continuing that conversation
0:38:24 and seeing what else we can do in this space.
0:38:28 So do you think politicians are underusing this platform and was that sort of the idea
0:38:32 that you wanted to get the word out to these politicians you need to be on TikTok?
0:38:34 I think there are two politicians that are amazing at TikTok.
0:38:39 I think it’s Congressman Jeff Jackson out of North Carolina and I think it’s GSA.
0:38:40 That’s it.
0:38:42 I think AOC is incredible at using Instagram.
0:38:45 I wish he would call us for TikTok.
0:38:51 It is crazy to me how much every politician is still being led by like social marketing
0:38:55 teams who want them to do these dumb trends and silly sounds and it treats young audiences
0:38:58 specifically as idiots.
0:39:02 People want to be talked to like adults, they want to hear what’s going on in the world.
0:39:05 Congressman Jeff Jackson was a freshman term congressman who just started talking to the
0:39:09 camera as like America’s dad about here’s what’s going on in Congress right now.
0:39:11 He gets an average of like four or five million views a video.
0:39:15 That’s impossible that no freshman congressman has ever had to reach that big.
0:39:16 And so it’s frustrating.
0:39:20 I think it’s like people really think they need to dumb themselves down for people to
0:39:22 like them and the reality is like they just need to be themselves.
0:39:28 What do you think of Brat specifically in his relation to Kamala?
0:39:33 I mean, the reason I bring that up is because it feels very kind of adjacent to the trend
0:39:39 you’re talking about where the social media account of Kamala Harris, it was handed over
0:39:46 to I guess a young person who was a fan of Charlie XCX and sort of associated Brat and
0:39:52 all of that teen meme culture with the Harris campaign and it has exploded.
0:39:58 But it feels in my view very similar to what you have described where it’s kind of these
0:40:04 politicians don’t really understand these meme cultures, but they’re being told by their
0:40:05 younger employees.
0:40:09 You should just do it because people will like it and it’s resonated in a really big
0:40:10 way.
0:40:15 But I don’t think in my view at least it doesn’t seem that genuine to Kamala, but maybe that
0:40:16 doesn’t matter.
0:40:17 What is your view on that whole?
0:40:23 Look, it gets millions of views, it gets millions of likes, it makes everyone on Twitter love
0:40:25 it that lives in New York City and LA.
0:40:30 The reality is this election is 50/50, it’s likely to be decided by a few thousand votes.
0:40:33 Young men have abandoned the Democratic Party.
0:40:36 So it’s all fun and games, but we’re missing the point.
0:40:41 And I think the Democratic Party specifically likes to usually blame this on so many different
0:40:42 factors.
0:40:47 It’s their fault and they are not speaking on the issues that they care about, the people
0:40:48 that matter most.
0:40:53 And so like I cringe the more that we talk about Brat Summer, it was fun for a day and
0:40:57 I loved the meme and I loved all the new excitement when Biden dropped out of the race, but this
0:41:00 is not speaking to those 5,000 votes that will decide this election.
0:41:04 I just want to talk about news as well, similar to what we’re talking about, but 40% of Gen
0:41:11 Z today regularly gets their news from TikTok and that number is up from 9% in 2020.
0:41:14 So TikTok is fast becoming a news platform.
0:41:16 I mean, it is the new TV.
0:41:20 So what are your thoughts on the fact that we’re getting on news from TikTok?
0:41:21 Is that a good thing?
0:41:22 Is it a bad thing?
0:41:23 Where do you stand on this?
0:41:25 I think it can be an amazing thing.
0:41:30 I think again, this is a space that needs more trusted voices, that needs more serious
0:41:34 shows that have like the checks and balances that like ensure the right information is
0:41:35 being said.
0:41:40 My only fear about 40% of people getting their news from TikTok is there’s very little fact
0:41:42 checking on this platform.
0:41:46 And I will see a video that is literal fake news come up in my feed.
0:41:49 And no one leaves the platform when they’re on it.
0:41:53 It’s not like, okay, I saw this video, now let me go on Google and see if this is actually
0:41:54 real or not.
0:41:55 No one’s doing that.
0:41:57 What they do is they click on the comments and the comments likely validate that belief
0:42:01 system because all of a sudden the comments are, I can’t believe this is true.
0:42:02 And it’s like, I guess it’s true.
0:42:03 It’s like, no, this isn’t fucking true.
0:42:04 No part of this is true.
0:42:08 But now this person’s going to repeat it in person as if it is.
0:42:12 And the other thing, which is the sad part of these platforms is like, you are likely
0:42:17 being radicalized by an algorithm that really knows what you like and what you want to see
0:42:19 and you’re not seeing what’s on the other side.
0:42:24 Do you think the algorithm is being engineered by the Chinese government?
0:42:31 All I will say is, I don’t know what to say there, in between a rock and a hard place.
0:42:34 What I will say is I think we are our own worst enemy.
0:42:39 And I think the issue with these algorithms is they actually understand human nature.
0:42:43 And the reality is we like these things.
0:42:45 It’s like Trump didn’t cause any of this.
0:42:48 He was the effect of all of this.
0:42:54 We are in very divisive times because we are really upset with each other.
0:42:56 We’re not really wanting to look at each other in the eyes anymore.
0:43:00 I think that’s the area that I’d like to focus most of my time on.
0:43:01 I love this country.
0:43:03 I think it’s the greatest country on earth.
0:43:08 And I want to get us to a place where we can be across the aisle from each other and still
0:43:11 shake hands and realize we still want the same things.
0:43:13 We just have different approaches.
0:43:17 As we wrap up here, I do want to get a sense of how things work for you.
0:43:21 What does your production process look like?
0:43:25 If someone wants to go out there and produce a TikTok show, what do they do?
0:43:28 I’ll give the boy room example because I think it’s a really fun one.
0:43:32 Rachel came into our office on a Tuesday, she pitched boy room.
0:43:35 That Friday we shot a pilot with my friend Peter that will never see the light of day
0:43:37 because he was very upset with me.
0:43:39 That was enough for us to realize we wanted to go make the show.
0:43:41 The following week we shot three episodes.
0:43:43 The week after that we posted the first two.
0:43:45 So it’s a matter of weeks.
0:43:50 And that for us is significantly longer than the average TikTok user.
0:43:54 Us spending 50K on a season is a fraction of Hollywood.
0:43:56 It’s still more than anyone is spending on this platform.
0:43:59 So you don’t need anything.
0:44:02 All you need is a really good idea and just know how to address your audience a little
0:44:04 bit faster than usual.
0:44:05 And you’ll have a hit.
0:44:08 And I think the thing that I’m really surprised by is I feel like I’ve sort of been shouting
0:44:12 from the rooftops for two years about like this being television, this being the space
0:44:14 to create the next generation of formats.
0:44:17 And I’m kind of shocked at how few people have taken the base.
0:44:18 Yes, exactly.
0:44:21 I was going to ask, are there any competitors that you’re seeing?
0:44:26 There’s a few companies in this space who make really fun, you know, content.
0:44:28 A lot of man on the street stuff.
0:44:32 What I haven’t seen in this space that I think we’re really good at is creating like real
0:44:34 traditional TV show formats.
0:44:40 I think when people start seeing the business that is here, it might be a space that’s flushed
0:44:43 with capital again and having people start these companies.
0:44:47 I welcome it because I think the thing that will help most is having other things to point
0:44:49 at as successes.
0:44:52 Because you have these conversations with brands who you do need to help make this content.
0:44:55 And so I want there to be more people in this space.
0:44:58 I’m looking forward to a time that there’s four or five other great studios.
0:45:02 And until then, we’re just going to try to figure out what show you want next.
0:45:07 I think a part of it, and I’m just going to speak from personal experience here.
0:45:11 It seems kind of easy because of how short TikToks are.
0:45:16 And you just, you know, it’s such a fleeting experience and it’s a throwaway experience.
0:45:19 And the fact that you can just scroll past it, it’s like, what was the point of that?
0:45:26 And I feel that from, you know, I also believe in the importance of short form, but I found
0:45:32 that it’s actually very difficult to mobilize that effort because it’s a lot more effort
0:45:38 and time than you think for a payoff that feels just a lot less satisfying.
0:45:42 And you know, if you release your hit movie and you do the red carpet and you get an Emmy
0:45:43 and all this stuff.
0:45:47 And it’s like, it feels like a lot of the reason I would imagine just from my experience
0:45:52 why people are not doing it is because it’s like, this is just fucking pain to have to
0:45:54 do this over and over again.
0:45:56 It is the least sexy business on earth.
0:46:00 And I think like again, a part of the reason why a lot of people from traditional haven’t
0:46:03 entered this space is like, you’re not going to get a deadline Hollywood article.
0:46:06 Chanted, our shows have been in every major publication on earth.
0:46:09 But the behind the scenes of that isn’t really reported on.
0:46:12 So there is no red carpet.
0:46:13 It’s a micro budget.
0:46:16 And the interesting thing now is like, because we’ve had so many hits, we are being approached
0:46:21 by all the agencies and management companies offering up like pretty big talent, whether
0:46:25 it’s athletes or A-list actors who basically are upset that they don’t have a digital presence
0:46:26 of their own.
0:46:29 Maybe they want to build a brand long term and a space that they’ve never really talked
0:46:33 about before and they’re positioning their talent is like, can they host a show?
0:46:36 And the only thing that I say to them is basically what you’re saying.
0:46:39 It’s like, if they want a Starwagon on set and they think they’re going to be pampered,
0:46:41 it’s just not the right opportunity.
0:46:45 If they’re really wanting to get their hands dirty and like get in the thick of this thing,
0:46:46 we will make a hit show together.
0:46:50 And you know, that scares certain people away, but it does attract the right crowd.
0:46:53 So did people say, no, not good enough for me?
0:46:56 I think managers know their talent best.
0:46:59 And so they know which of their talent could be open to this idea and not.
0:47:03 I also think that like the other scary thing about TikTok is viewership is public.
0:47:09 And I think a lot of people don’t want people to know how few people listen to their podcast
0:47:13 or watch, you know, watch their show.
0:47:14 Yeah.
0:47:15 It’s so interesting.
0:47:19 Well, I feel like we could go on for hours, but I think I’m going to start to wrap it
0:47:21 up here.
0:47:25 We’ve talked a lot about people working in Hollywood, writers, producers, on a recent
0:47:28 episode on Grofty Markets.
0:47:31 We talked about, you know, what’s going to happen to costume designers and what’s going
0:47:36 to happen to makeup artists, et cetera, and Lionsgate just partnered with an AI company
0:47:37 that’s going to do their storyboarding.
0:47:40 AI is coming.
0:47:46 Do you have any advice to people working in Hollywood who are concerned about their job
0:47:50 security, concerned about the future of entertainment?
0:47:52 What would be your advice to someone in that position?
0:47:54 It’s really hard.
0:47:57 And I say this as a born and raised Angelino.
0:48:02 When I go back home, you can feel the despair.
0:48:06 You know, I don’t think people realize the below the line workers that make every movie
0:48:07 and TV show possible.
0:48:12 They’re not thinking about the costume designers and the set designers and the PAs and the grips
0:48:13 and the gaffers and the truck drivers.
0:48:19 Like it is a industry that is built off the back of middle class workers and you feel that
0:48:23 in LA because restaurants are closing, stores are closing, people aren’t going out the
0:48:26 way that they used to because they have less money in their pocket.
0:48:30 And I don’t think that we can hope that Hollywood’s going to come back.
0:48:32 This might be what it looks like for a very long time.
0:48:38 And so that’s not the most uplifting answer, but it is a reality check that I think a lot
0:48:40 of people need to start having with themselves.
0:48:44 Do you think that they need to just pivot to something else?
0:48:46 They might need to.
0:48:48 Adam is the head coach and co-founder of Gymnasium.
0:48:54 Adam, this was epic and I just agree with all of your texts.
0:48:57 I hate to end it on such a grim note.
0:48:58 It’s good.
0:48:59 Maybe that’s the kick that we need.
0:49:00 I know.
0:49:01 It’s important.
0:49:02 Appreciate your time.
0:49:03 Thank you.
0:49:04 Sorry.
0:49:08 Our producer is Claire Miller.
0:49:12 Our associate producer is Alison Weiss and our engineer is Benjamin Spencer.
0:49:15 Catherine Dillon is our executive producer.
0:49:18 Thank you for listening to First Time Founders from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
0:49:20 Tune in tomorrow for Prodigy Markets.
0:49:30 [Music]
0:49:33 (upbeat music)
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