0:00:02 (upbeat music)
0:00:12 – Hi, Prophogy fans, it’s Ed,
0:00:14 dropping in to share an episode of Prophogy Markets
0:00:16 that we do not want you to miss.
0:00:19 We are on our own separate feed now.
0:00:22 So type in Prophogy Markets wherever you get your podcasts
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0:00:25 This week on Prophogy Markets,
0:00:27 we spoke with one of our favorite guests,
0:00:29 Professor Aswath Damodaran.
0:00:31 We talked about tech earnings,
0:00:33 what Wall Street thinks of Harris and Trump,
0:00:36 and we spoke about some fallen heroes in the stock market.
0:00:37 Here’s a clip.
0:00:39 – I think the prompt for Intel is,
0:00:41 they were at the top for so long
0:00:44 that their story is where the biggest, where the best.
0:00:49 And when that slipped, they wanted to go back to the top.
0:00:51 I mean, think about what they’ve done over the last 10 years.
0:00:54 It’s not that they haven’t tried to do the things
0:00:55 that would make them successful.
0:00:57 I think they’ve tried too hard.
0:00:58 Tried too hard in what sense?
0:01:01 They tried to out TSMC, TSMC
0:01:03 with the Intel Foundry huge investments
0:01:07 in manufacturing chip saying we too can be like TSMC.
0:01:10 They’ve invested, I think after Nvidia,
0:01:11 perhaps even more than Nvidia,
0:01:13 they’ve thrown in billions of dollars
0:01:15 into developing the next AI chip.
0:01:17 ‘Cause they’re convinced
0:01:19 that they can out Nvidia, Nvidia.
0:01:21 And I think in the process they’ve overreached.
0:01:23 I call it metuism on steroids
0:01:25 because that’s basically what Intel has done
0:01:28 for the last five years is, me too, I can do that.
0:01:32 And I can do it five times more expensively than you can.
0:01:34 Now, I remember going into Intel six or seven years ago,
0:01:37 I went to their offices and I was talking to their,
0:01:41 they asked me to come in and speak to their general audience.
0:01:43 And what I noticed about Intel as a company
0:01:45 was the absence of energy.
0:01:48 You don’t get that sense of excitement and energy
0:01:49 and wasn’t there anymore.
0:01:52 And it’s tough to be in the business that Intel is in
0:01:55 without that driving the choices.
0:01:57 I do think though that it’s been oversold.
0:02:00 I think at, especially when it dropped below $20 per share,
0:02:03 you were effectively assuming that Intel
0:02:06 would shrink over time and its margins would go away.
0:02:09 Intel has a couple of advantages still
0:02:11 that can work in its favor.
0:02:14 One is the inflation reduction act, as you know,
0:02:19 put as a priority chips made in the US.
0:02:21 DSMC has built a factory in the US,
0:02:24 but Intel is supremely well positioned
0:02:28 to take advantage of the subsidies that come out of that.
0:02:32 So if Intel can find its feet on the foundry business,
0:02:33 there’s a way back.
0:02:36 And I think that as long as they don’t try too hard
0:02:39 and accept the fact that they will not dominate AI,
0:02:41 that battle’s lost, Nvidia will,
0:02:43 but they have a niche portion of the AI business
0:02:44 they can go after.
0:02:47 I think there’s a pathway back to middle age,
0:02:50 not great growth, but middle age for Intel.
0:02:52 And at less than $20 per share,
0:02:57 I thought it was a pretty good bargain as an investment.
0:03:01 I own Intel now, so I’ve got to be quite open about that.
0:03:04 I did it after I wrote the piece and I looked at
0:03:08 what would happen if they became a 3% growth company
0:03:10 and the margins slipped by three or 4%
0:03:12 and there were $28 per share
0:03:14 with those assumptions built in.
0:03:15 I can live with those assumptions.
0:03:19 I think the odds are, in fact, in your favor and Intel.
0:03:21 Boeing, though, is an entirely different story.
0:03:25 I mean, I’ve never seen a company blow up its reputation
0:03:28 as thoroughly and as completely as Boeing has done
0:03:29 over the last 20 years.
0:03:33 I mean, it’s one of the great engineering companies
0:03:34 in the world.
0:03:35 I mean, a company that was, you know,
0:03:40 people went to because it’s superb, superb engineering
0:03:43 and technology knowledge, trusted in many dimensions.
0:03:46 The only reason Boeing is afloat
0:03:48 is because it’s in a duopoly.
0:03:52 I mean, that’s a reality, is this company
0:03:56 has so thoroughly trashed its credibility in markets
0:03:59 that in any other market, we’d be talking about rap,
0:04:02 you know, winding up the story
0:04:05 and selling the assets to others.
0:04:06 I do think they’re thinking
0:04:08 about selling their space division now
0:04:11 and that’s the first phase in a company saying
0:04:14 we’re in trouble, we’re going to sell off our crown jewels
0:04:16 because we have to survive.
0:04:18 They’re in complete survival mode
0:04:21 and I don’t know an easy pathway back to credibility
0:04:23 because once people get the perception
0:04:25 that you cannot be trusted,
0:04:28 that your products are not safe.
0:04:33 Which for an aircraft manufacturer is diabolically dangerous.
0:04:35 It’s very difficult to find a pathway back.
0:04:37 So Boeing, I would not buy at any price simply
0:04:40 because I think there are too many things
0:04:43 that can go wrong here, that can cause the company,
0:04:47 if not to go bankrupt, at least to be taken into receivership
0:04:50 by somebody that might maintain the assets and run it.
0:04:53 But you know, the company is in serious, serious trouble.
0:04:56 If you want to hear the rest of that episode,
0:04:59 search ProfG Markets wherever you get your podcasts
0:05:00 and hit follow.
0:05:02 You’ll get the full conversation
0:05:05 along with a new interview every Thursday
0:05:08 and that’s exclusively on ProfG Markets.
0:05:13 ♪ Lifetimes ♪
0:05:19 ♪ You help me ♪
0:05:22 ♪ In kind ♪
0:05:26 ♪ Reunion ♪
0:05:28 (upbeat music)

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0:01:44 – Welcome to the Prop G pods office hours.
0:01:46 This is the part of the show where we answer questions
0:01:48 about business, tech, entrepreneurship,
0:01:49 and whatever else is on your mind.
0:01:51 If you’d like to submit a question,
0:01:53 please email a voice recording to Office Hours
0:01:54 at propgmedia.com.
0:01:56 Again, that’s Office Hours at propgmedia.com.
0:01:59 I have not heard or seen these questions.
0:02:01 With that, question number one.
0:02:04 – Hi, Scott Ned.
0:02:06 I would love to hear some of your thoughts
0:02:08 on the state of corporate governance.
0:02:10 Scott, you talk a lot about your experiences
0:02:14 on corporate boards for both public and private companies.
0:02:15 I’m currently on the board of directors
0:02:17 for a smaller private company,
0:02:18 so I’ve been trying to level up my abilities
0:02:21 by learning more about best practices in this area.
0:02:24 Naturally, I’ve been looking towards publicly traded companies
0:02:26 and their governance structures,
0:02:28 but in doing some research, it appears that,
0:02:31 much like you’ve pointed out in our political system,
0:02:35 the average age of corporate directors keeps increasing.
0:02:37 On top of that, the same people responsible
0:02:40 for leading audit and compensation committees
0:02:42 are now being asked to understand the strategic impact
0:02:45 of cyber threats, AI, and climate change.
0:02:49 So Scott, how do you evaluate board makeup,
0:02:51 both from an age and skill set view?
0:02:53 And what do you look for in companies
0:02:56 that you think are poised to lead them into the future?
0:02:57 Thanks.
0:02:59 – That’s a thoughtful question.
0:03:00 So let’s break down the numbers.
0:03:02 According to data from the conference board,
0:03:04 the number of directors aged 66 to 70
0:03:06 among S&P 500 companies
0:03:07 has seen the biggest growth over the past four years.
0:03:09 Oh, what do you know, it’s more old people.
0:03:10 There you go.
0:03:11 Directors in the ’40s and late ’50s,
0:03:13 however, have declined over the same time period.
0:03:16 Jesus Christ, technology’s taken over, folks.
0:03:18 And let me be ages again.
0:03:20 Young people get technology.
0:03:22 Their brain can wrap their shit.
0:03:24 I don’t fucking understand this stuff.
0:03:26 People think I have an amazing social footprint.
0:03:27 You know why?
0:03:29 Because I hire young people to get this shit.
0:03:31 I kind of have decent instincts around business,
0:03:34 but we absolutely need more churn.
0:03:38 All these CEOs, boards of directors
0:03:42 are a cross between the land of the dead and golden girls.
0:03:43 It’s just like enough already.
0:03:45 Millennials, those under ’40,
0:03:47 make up the smallest portion of board members,
0:03:50 representing just 0.3% in 2023.
0:03:52 I do think you should probably have one person
0:03:54 in their ’40s, maybe in their ’30s on every board,
0:03:57 especially if your company is being affected by technology,
0:04:00 which is, let me think, every company.
0:04:01 First off, what is a board there to do?
0:04:04 At the end of the day, a board really only has two jobs.
0:04:06 And that is, if and when to sell the company
0:04:09 and to hire and fire the CEO to make sure,
0:04:12 if you have the right guy or gal in the CEO spot,
0:04:13 it’s easy to be a good board.
0:04:15 And then the chair of the audit committee
0:04:16 has to be the adult in the room
0:04:18 to make sure we’re not gonna get sued
0:04:19 or there’s a fraud taking place,
0:04:22 that what the CEO is actually saying is correct.
0:04:25 Whenever I’m on a board, I typically call the CFO
0:04:27 after the board meeting ’cause I find that the source of truth
0:04:30 and don’t use adjectives and embellishments.
0:04:33 Boards, for the most part, corporate governance,
0:04:35 usually do a good job.
0:04:36 Who makes up boards?
0:04:39 What I call FIPS, that is formerly important people
0:04:41 who no longer are working full-time,
0:04:44 but like the idea of staying involved in a company
0:04:46 and bestowing their wisdom on a company
0:04:48 and making a quarter of a million dollars a year
0:04:50 to show up and get free dinner four times,
0:04:51 read the board book,
0:04:54 and most importantly, get along with the CEO.
0:04:56 And this is the problem with corporate boards,
0:04:58 is that they get weaponized by the CEO.
0:05:03 Their job is to represent shareholders and all stakeholders.
0:05:05 Now, one of those stakeholders is management,
0:05:07 but also stakeholders are shareholders,
0:05:10 the employees that you don’t see in the boardroom,
0:05:13 the community, the government, children that you might be,
0:05:16 I don’t know, selling an addictive product into,
0:05:19 and the CEOs of these companies are always one thing.
0:05:21 They’re always ridiculously fucking charming.
0:05:22 They’re the former rush chairman
0:05:24 of their sorority or their fraternity.
0:05:26 They’re very likable.
0:05:27 The first thing they do is invite you out to dinner
0:05:29 when you’re on the board, maybe play golf.
0:05:32 There’s actually a lot less golf than there used to be,
0:05:35 but they know you’re in charge of their compensation
0:05:37 and they manage you.
0:05:40 I hate being on boards where I feel like I’m being managed.
0:05:42 And so you get a lot of this,
0:05:44 and that is you find that a lot of stuff
0:05:45 that’s happening in the company
0:05:47 is just kind of being filtered all through one lens.
0:05:50 There’s a couple of tells for a CEO, a good or a bad CEO,
0:05:53 good CEOs don’t speak that much during the board meeting.
0:05:55 They bring in other people
0:05:58 and they wanna highlight other management.
0:06:00 And they let the CFO speak and they listen
0:06:02 and they answer questions.
0:06:04 Now, how I’ve evolved as a director.
0:06:07 I went on my first board of directors when I was 34,
0:06:11 my first public board of directors when I was 38.
0:06:13 I’ve been on seven public company boards,
0:06:15 about a dozen private company boards.
0:06:18 I used to think that my job was to heckle from the cheap seats
0:06:19 and try and play stump the CEO.
0:06:22 No, you’re not, you’re just being an asshole.
0:06:24 You’re there to be supportive of the CEO, offer advice,
0:06:27 and a good director just listens
0:06:28 for the first couple of board meetings.
0:06:30 And what you want is a poll.
0:06:33 You want them to reach out to you for advice.
0:06:37 You wanna be a resource around your area of expertise
0:06:38 for other management.
0:06:41 In addition, you’re there to represent shareholders
0:06:43 in the community and you need to read the board book,
0:06:45 thoroughly ask good questions.
0:06:48 I used to send the board book to a colleague
0:06:49 who is a professor of accounting and saying,
0:06:50 “What am I missing here?
0:06:52 “This is so fucking complicated.
0:06:54 “What stands out to you?
0:06:57 “What should I be inquiring about or asking?”
0:06:59 But being a good director, good corporate governance,
0:07:03 I think is really, really interesting.
0:07:06 And managing the board, having a diverse set of viewpoints,
0:07:09 someone who represents looks, smells, and feels.
0:07:10 I mean, Nike was all white dudes
0:07:12 for a long time despite the fact that two thirds
0:07:15 of their customers and 80% of our athletes are non-white.
0:07:18 They figured it out and now they have a much more diverse board
0:07:20 that represents their stakeholders.
0:07:21 That’s what you need to do
0:07:23 and you need to have deep domain expertise,
0:07:26 especially on the boring shit, accounting, operations,
0:07:27 ’cause there needs to be people in the room
0:07:29 that can kind of smell bullshit and go,
0:07:30 “No, that doesn’t sound right.
0:07:31 “Well, what about this?”
0:07:35 And also be a resource for the CEO and management.
0:07:36 But I love corporate governance.
0:07:37 What are you there to do?
0:07:39 You’re a fiduciary.
0:07:41 Thank you so much for the question.
0:07:43 Super thoughtful, super thoughtful.
0:07:46 Question number two.
0:07:48 – Scott, I’m looking for your advice on my dilemma
0:07:50 between loyalty to one’s team
0:07:53 and preserving your own individual sanity.
0:07:56 The background is I’m fortunate to have recently sold a company
0:07:58 for an amount that secures my retirement
0:08:00 and takes care of my family’s future.
0:08:03 The issue is that the new buyer is paying off
0:08:05 the old shareholders through a combination
0:08:08 of a guaranteed amount that was already paid a close
0:08:11 and that part alone was enough to take care of me
0:08:14 as a major shareholder and a contingent amount
0:08:16 based on team performance that’ll be paid out
0:08:17 over several years if the team hits
0:08:20 collective top-line revenue targets.
0:08:23 Now, here’s the problem in my dilemma.
0:08:25 I’m still a large revenue producer for the firm
0:08:28 and my old team, who are amazing colleagues,
0:08:31 some of whom I’ve worked with for decades,
0:08:32 has told me that if I were to leave early,
0:08:35 they probably won’t hit that out-year revenue number
0:08:38 and won’t get the contingent distributions.
0:08:41 What that means for me is I’d have to stick with the firm
0:08:43 for a number of years when, to be honest,
0:08:45 I don’t feel like this place is for me
0:08:48 just as you didn’t when you sold your firm.
0:08:50 So do my obligations rest with my old team
0:08:53 or do I prioritize my own mental wellbeing
0:08:56 and desire to start that next chapter in my life?
0:08:58 Your advice is greatly appreciated.
0:08:59 Thanks.
0:09:01 – Thanks, Anonymous.
0:09:03 If you hate your job, you’re not gonna be very helpful
0:09:05 to the company or to your employees.
0:09:07 I think there’s probably a middle ground here.
0:09:09 I have some experience here.
0:09:11 My firm was acquired by Gartner
0:09:14 and we got a big chunk of money up front
0:09:16 and then an earn-out.
0:09:19 And I think I’m the only person that didn’t stick around.
0:09:20 And the earn-out wasn’t based on targets,
0:09:22 it was based on time.
0:09:24 Sounds like you have specific targets
0:09:26 and you feel responsible for hitting those targets
0:09:27 such that your employees can recognize
0:09:29 the upside from their earn-out.
0:09:32 I get that and that’s very noble.
0:09:33 There’s gotta be an in-between.
0:09:35 Maybe you stick around, try and hit the earn-out.
0:09:37 Maybe you also are just very transparent with them
0:09:39 saying I’m probably gonna move on
0:09:41 at the end of this year or the end of next year
0:09:44 and see if you can’t get them what they need.
0:09:45 But also a good manager is supposed to be able
0:09:46 to replace themselves.
0:09:49 And the fact that you have become indispensable
0:09:51 means it’s not a well-run firm.
0:09:53 And quite frankly, you have not managed it
0:09:54 as well as you should have.
0:09:57 In Germany, they force every senior manager
0:09:58 to take at least four weeks off in a row
0:09:59 because they don’t want firms
0:10:02 that are too dependent upon an individual.
0:10:05 So I would say, okay, let’s say at the end of the year
0:10:07 they get their earn-out based on targets.
0:10:09 This year’s almost up.
0:10:12 Maybe go another 15 months, make it clear to everybody
0:10:15 that this year and next year, you’ll probably move on.
0:10:17 Try and set the division up for success
0:10:19 by replacing yourself or mentoring
0:10:23 or advancing other people who can help you.
0:10:26 But boss, life’s going fast
0:10:28 and you have an obligation to yourself and your family.
0:10:30 Yeah, be a good guy, but don’t be a martyr.
0:10:33 And it sounds like they’ve already made some good money.
0:10:36 And yeah, enjoy yourself, move on to the next thing.
0:10:38 When my firm was acquired by Gardner,
0:10:39 we had a three year earn-out.
0:10:43 I lasted nine months, nine months.
0:10:45 I just, the culture was just not,
0:10:47 it was just oil and water.
0:10:48 And they weren’t bad people.
0:10:53 And it’s a very successful firm.
0:10:56 It just wasn’t, I did not know how to operate
0:10:57 in a big company.
0:10:58 I didn’t like it.
0:10:59 It felt like I was losing time
0:11:02 to go do something else that I enjoyed.
0:11:04 And so I wanted out.
0:11:06 Everyone else stayed the full three years
0:11:08 because there was a lot of money.
0:11:11 I had made a lot, a lot of money on closing
0:11:14 and wasn’t as tied to the company financially
0:11:15 as some of these other folks.
0:11:18 But it sounds like you wanna move on, be good to your team,
0:11:22 figure out a way to get them some additional compensation,
0:11:24 be transparent, you’re thinking about your next thing
0:11:27 and figure out a way such that you leave
0:11:29 the operating group strong, such that everyone
0:11:31 and the company to pay a lot of money for you
0:11:33 feels like they’re getting a return on their investment
0:11:35 and employees get to make their money.
0:11:36 But boss, don’t be a martyr.
0:11:38 It’s your life.
0:11:40 We have one quick break before our final question.
0:11:41 Stay with us.
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0:14:00 – Welcome back, question number three.
0:14:03 – Hey, Prof. G, this is Scott from Central Washington.
0:14:05 I’m a big fan and I’ve been following your talks
0:14:08 about the evolution of masculinity and the modern man
0:14:10 and much of it resonates with me.
0:14:13 I’m a 41-year-old former Greenbury officer
0:14:15 who transitioned into wealth management
0:14:18 as a financial planner about a decade ago.
0:14:20 Now, I’m a husband to a physician
0:14:21 and father to two daughters,
0:14:23 which led to another transition
0:14:26 as a primary caregiver and homemaker.
0:14:27 I’ve recently earned my MBA
0:14:30 and while my drive to learn and grow is still strong,
0:14:31 I’m wrestling with how to continue
0:14:33 contributing financially.
0:14:36 The traditional employee route isn’t a fit right now
0:14:38 due to my commitment to supporting my partner
0:14:41 and being fully present for my daughters.
0:14:44 What advice would you give to someone in my position?
0:14:46 – Ambitious but navigating a different path
0:14:48 to contribution and fulfillment,
0:14:49 especially in the context
0:14:51 of how you talk about the modern man.
0:14:54 Thanks, I look forward to hearing your answer.
0:14:57 – First off, it sounds passable,
0:14:59 thank you for your service and Jesus Christ,
0:15:00 what an impressive person you are.
0:15:05 The Green Berets, less than 1% of the army
0:15:07 wears a Green Beret.
0:15:10 Boss, I think a lot of us,
0:15:14 a lot of men kind of at this age
0:15:16 are trying to figure out a way
0:15:17 not to reinvent themselves
0:15:19 but stay economically relevant.
0:15:22 I’m not talking about the way the world should be,
0:15:25 I’m talking about the way the world is.
0:15:28 And that is men are disproportionately evaluated
0:15:31 on their economic well-being as a provider
0:15:32 and women are disproportionately
0:15:35 and unfairly evaluated based on their aesthetics.
0:15:37 I don’t have a silver bullet here
0:15:39 other than to say are there support groups
0:15:44 or are there circles of former or veterans
0:15:46 who try and help each other out
0:15:50 finding kind of that second act?
0:15:52 I also, I immediately think that
0:15:54 like when I hear of a guy of your background,
0:15:56 what I immediately want
0:15:59 and what I think you would have tremendous,
0:16:01 get tremendous gratification around
0:16:03 is I would love for you to be around young men.
0:16:07 And is there a way for you to be a high school substitute
0:16:10 teacher, to be a coach,
0:16:13 to be in some sort of recruiting for the armed services
0:16:16 but just you around young men
0:16:17 and ideally make some money
0:16:20 but I just go to social.
0:16:21 I think people who come out of the service
0:16:26 have such incredible grit and a code
0:16:28 are really honorable generally speaking
0:16:31 and in great shape and have a fidelity to the flag
0:16:33 which I think we need more of amongst young people.
0:16:34 So just selfishly, I think, wow,
0:16:35 wouldn’t it be great to get an individual
0:16:39 like this involved or around young men?
0:16:42 If you’re at home, you’re gonna need some sort of remote work.
0:16:44 I don’t know what your technical skills are
0:16:46 but what I would say is put together
0:16:48 what I call a kitchen cabinet, find some people,
0:16:50 be very transparent, looking for some advice.
0:16:52 I’m trying to figure out my next thing.
0:16:53 Is it okay if I call you or take care of for coffee
0:16:55 every once in a while?
0:16:57 Every morning I’m gonna send out two or three
0:16:59 cold or blind emails or calls
0:17:02 to other people who have served or people.
0:17:03 People wanna help you.
0:17:06 People realize the commitment and sacrifice
0:17:07 that you made for our country.
0:17:09 So they’re generally inclined to take your call.
0:17:12 If it’s not a great job, at some point,
0:17:15 just try some shit and see where it goes, right?
0:17:16 The way to make a decent amount of money
0:17:19 is by starting just to make money
0:17:20 and if you’re good, they’re gonna see it
0:17:21 and they’re gonna wanna hold on to you.
0:17:23 Also, this sounds kind of weird
0:17:25 but try and identify some small businesses
0:17:27 in your area and call them and say,
0:17:28 I know how to lead, I’m together,
0:17:30 I’m obviously very disciplined,
0:17:33 I need some flexibility, is there a role for me?
0:17:35 Again, thank you for your service.
0:17:37 That’s all for this episode.
0:17:39 If you’d like to submit a question,
0:17:40 please email a voice recording
0:17:42 to officehours@propertymedia.com.
0:17:45 Again, that’s officehours@propertymedia.com.
0:17:56 This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez
0:17:58 and Caroline Shagren and Drew Burroughs
0:18:00 as our technical director.
0:18:01 Thank you for listening to the Prof. G Pod
0:18:03 from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
0:18:05 We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy, No Malice
0:18:06 as read by George Hahn.
0:18:09 And please follow our Prof. G. Marcus Pod
0:18:10 wherever you get your pods for new episodes
0:18:12 every Monday and Thursday.
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0:01:52 – Welcome to Raging Moderates, I’m Scott Galloway.
0:01:53 – And I’m Jessica Tarla.
0:01:56 And you are literally the recipient
0:02:00 of the biggest puff piece I have ever seen.
0:02:03 For our listeners that don’t subscribe to The New York Times
0:02:05 or haven’t seen it in your social media feed,
0:02:07 according to The New York Times,
0:02:10 Jess is the person on Fox that people love to hate,
0:02:12 but they can’t help loving.
0:02:14 I have never seen-
0:02:16 – Show me the lies, Scott Galloway.
0:02:21 – I read, I like you and I wanted to scroll up in my mouth.
0:02:25 Jesus Christ, it was even the pictures were fantastic.
0:02:29 You, I imagine if, I mean, granted,
0:02:31 you’re not as self-absorbed as I am,
0:02:32 or at least I don’t think you are.
0:02:33 I would have just-
0:02:34 – Trying to avoid it, yeah.
0:02:37 – I would have just wallpapered my house in that article.
0:02:39 Oh my gosh, you must feel great.
0:02:42 – It’s pretty good.
0:02:46 This, my liberal heart was warmed, let’s say.
0:02:46 – Oh my goodness.
0:02:48 – And there’s always these moments
0:02:50 that break through out of the Fox orbit,
0:02:53 where my actual life knows what I do for a living
0:02:54 and kind of can see it.
0:02:59 So my text messages, just full of like parents
0:03:01 and grandparents of people that I know,
0:03:03 that are like, oh my God, you’re alive
0:03:06 and you’re doing this cool thing.
0:03:07 No, it was fabulous.
0:03:12 They did a, it was a very generous article for sure,
0:03:16 but I liked how much they captured about my background
0:03:18 and also what I’m doing at Fox.
0:03:21 And they had great quotes from my colleagues.
0:03:24 I have zero complaints and you told me
0:03:26 I would have a complaint and I don’t.
0:03:28 I got the puff piece of the century.
0:03:32 – Yeah, I was just, I was, I knew it would be good.
0:03:33 I knew it would be positive,
0:03:36 but any kind of, almost any,
0:03:37 any, especially in New York times,
0:03:39 feels like they gotta find a couple people
0:03:40 to say bad things about you.
0:03:42 And they clearly couldn’t find anyone.
0:03:44 – But I’m not a white man.
0:03:46 So I feel like I had that going in my favor.
0:03:47 – Yeah, I was.
0:03:49 I read it and I kept waiting for,
0:03:51 you know, the line saying some people she’s,
0:03:54 some people say she’s whatever to, you know,
0:03:56 or she gets a pass because it never came.
0:04:00 It was just talking to all these Republicans who love you
0:04:02 and all these Democrats who adore you.
0:04:03 Anyways, congratulations.
0:04:06 That’s, that was really nice.
0:04:06 – It was very cool.
0:04:07 – A nice moment for you.
0:04:10 So today we’re going to be talking
0:04:12 about the final week of the campaign,
0:04:15 John Kelly’s warning about Trump’s fascist behavior
0:04:19 and the down ball of races that we have our eyes on.
0:04:22 All right, so we are down to the final week.
0:04:24 Thank God.
0:04:26 Kamala Harris is pulling in A-list names
0:04:27 to get voters fired up.
0:04:31 Beyonce, Eminem wasn’t, I didn’t see that one coming.
0:04:33 Bruce Springsteen, Spike Lee,
0:04:35 Samuel Jackson, just to name a few.
0:04:38 Hillary Clinton did something similar back in 2016,
0:04:40 but Harris’s approach has been different.
0:04:43 She’s been calling herself the underdog all along,
0:04:44 whereas Clinton’s campaign carried
0:04:46 an expectation of victory.
0:04:49 The rally in Houston with Beyonce was her largest yet.
0:04:51 Let’s listen to a clip.
0:04:54 – We are at the precipice of an incredible shift,
0:04:56 the brink of history.
0:05:02 I’m not here as a celebrity.
0:05:05 I’m not here as a politician.
0:05:06 I’m here as a mother.
0:05:12 A mother who cares deeply about the world,
0:05:15 my children and all of our children living.
0:05:21 A world where we have the freedom to control our bodies.
0:05:25 A world where we’re not divided.
0:05:29 Our past, our present, our future,
0:05:32 merge to meet us here.
0:05:34 – This in the clip that is really making the rounds
0:05:36 and I would argue has been more powerful
0:05:38 as the clip of Michelle Obama,
0:05:41 or first lady, former first lady, Michelle Obama.
0:05:44 What are your thoughts going into the last week here?
0:05:47 Give us your state of play around the race, Jess.
0:05:52 – So I’m actually not having a huge anxiety day.
0:05:54 So you caught me at a good moment
0:05:56 where I’m pretty optimistic about–
0:05:57 – So Xanax.
0:05:58 Xanax for precipice.
0:06:01 – I’m heavily drugged actually to get through this
0:06:04 just casually on a Monday.
0:06:09 So I’ve been trying to look at the actual data
0:06:10 versus the vibes and it’s interesting
0:06:13 because it’s the inverse of how we started out.
0:06:16 Remember that this was the vibes campaign, right?
0:06:18 We were all coconut-pilled.
0:06:21 Charlie XCX gave us Brat Summer
0:06:22 and everyone was riding high
0:06:24 on the fact that we felt like we had a chance.
0:06:28 And now we have a lot of information
0:06:29 from the ground of what’s going on
0:06:32 and Jenna Malley-Dell and the campaign manager
0:06:35 for Kamala’s campaign was on with Jen Psaki on Sunday.
0:06:39 And she said we knocked on 1.2 million doors
0:06:42 in battleground states on Saturday alone.
0:06:45 That is mind blowing.
0:06:47 How many people are out doing this?
0:06:49 And there are the Christine Baranskis of the world
0:06:51 who are showing up in people’s doors
0:06:53 and Bradley Whitford and all of that is great.
0:06:55 But there are just regular people
0:06:57 that are out there jazzed to be doing this
0:06:59 and there are Democrats doing it
0:07:01 and Republicans doing it.
0:07:03 And that’s giving me a lot of hope.
0:07:05 There was a pullout that was really positive
0:07:08 but I wanted to ask you about Beyonce,
0:07:10 I wish she had performed, that’s always the downer in this.
0:07:11 And of course you had 30,000 people
0:07:14 because people thought they were going to a Beyonce concert.
0:07:16 And I thought she was powerful and great
0:07:20 and revealed herself to have political messaging
0:07:22 that maybe we didn’t think that she had and I loved it.
0:07:24 But there was something that Michelle Obama said
0:07:27 that I feel like you probably wouldn’t have loved.
0:07:30 So the clip circulating about what the implications
0:07:33 of the Dove’s decision have obviously incredible
0:07:37 but she says to men that they need to take the lives
0:07:40 of the women, the lives of the women in their lives,
0:07:43 she said it more articulately than I did, seriously.
0:07:48 And it was in the same vein as when Obama kind of scolded
0:07:53 black men in Pennsylvania before he did his first big rally
0:07:55 for the campaign a few weeks back
0:07:56 when they got a lot of criticism for,
0:07:59 what did you make of that part of Michelle’s messaging?
0:08:02 – Oh, I absolutely loved it.
0:08:03 – You did, okay.
0:08:05 – Yeah, I’ve been thinking a lot about,
0:08:09 I’m writing a book on masculinity
0:08:11 and I’ve been thinking a lot about
0:08:14 what is an aspirational modern form of masculinity
0:08:18 and these words that come back to provider protector
0:08:21 and procreator when I think of protector,
0:08:24 I think, okay, at some point in your life,
0:08:26 first degree, second degree,
0:08:28 there’s going to be someone in your life
0:08:30 with an unplanned pregnancy.
0:08:35 And the notion that you don’t immediately go to protection
0:08:38 and think, all right, I want people in my life
0:08:40 to have options, ’cause the most mendacious thing
0:08:43 about this bodily autonomy argument
0:08:47 is that if you wanted to ensure it was rejected
0:08:49 and women had bodily autonomy,
0:08:50 all you would need to do is ensure
0:08:52 that the rule was absolute.
0:08:56 Because wealthy Americans and including wealthy Republicans
0:08:58 kind of know that if something,
0:09:00 if an unplanned pregnancy happens to them
0:09:04 or their niece or their daughter, they’ll figure it out.
0:09:05 Wealthy people will figure it out.
0:09:08 And that’s the most mendacious thing about this.
0:09:12 So this is really a war on poor women quite frankly,
0:09:17 poor families, 17 year old black woman who becomes pregnant
0:09:19 doesn’t have a lot of education, single parent,
0:09:22 maybe hides the pregnancy, doesn’t have resources,
0:09:25 can’t be shipped to Atlanta for to terminate the pregnancy,
0:09:28 doesn’t have access to medical abortion.
0:09:32 And her message was, if you’re a man, how I read it,
0:09:34 your job is to protect people,
0:09:36 maybe not even in your direct sphere.
0:09:37 That’s your job as a man.
0:09:40 You’re supposed to protect women.
0:09:42 And if you look at why women generally speaking,
0:09:44 and this is gonna sound sexist,
0:09:46 but there’s research to show this,
0:09:47 why they’re attracted to men
0:09:48 or one of the features they’re attracted to
0:09:51 is they want a man who physically, intellectually,
0:09:54 and financially gives them the impression
0:09:58 that when shit gets real, that man can protect them.
0:10:01 And this seems just at the very core of that.
0:10:06 The dude, yeah, think about your own economic well-being,
0:10:11 but your instinct, your muscle memory should be to protect.
0:10:14 And this is, you’re not protecting us right now.
0:10:16 By not showing up and pushing back on this,
0:10:18 you are not protecting us.
0:10:22 I thought that was the most powerful part of her speech.
0:10:25 – When I first heard it, I thought, yeah, exactly.
0:10:28 Especially having gone through two pregnancies recently
0:10:31 and given birth, it’s one of the most fragile
0:10:33 and frightening things you can do.
0:10:37 And you’re one step away from a medical emergency
0:10:39 for nine, 10 months straight.
0:10:41 And it is a miracle every time
0:10:44 that one of these babies is delivered safely
0:10:46 and that the mom is good and that the baby is good.
0:10:48 So I totally get that.
0:10:51 I just, I took a step back because we’re focused on getting
0:10:53 men to support the Democratic Party
0:10:55 in this last hustle here.
0:11:00 And I wondered about that kind of 28-year-old guy
0:11:03 who feels like the Democratic Party isn’t interested in him
0:11:05 or the 35-year-old guy or the 42,
0:11:09 whatever up to through Gen X,
0:11:11 like the Gen Zs and millennials.
0:11:14 And I didn’t know how that would sit with them.
0:11:17 I hope that they heard it the way that you did
0:11:18 because that’s how I did,
0:11:20 but I feel like I’m sometimes so clouded
0:11:24 by my own estrogen that perhaps I can’t see it clearly
0:11:24 anymore.
0:11:27 – Well, just the idea,
0:11:31 and I think it’s important to remind young men of this,
0:11:32 your ability to be a provider,
0:11:37 you wanna be impoverished for the rest of your life,
0:11:40 be the father of an unwanted pregnancy at a young age.
0:11:41 – Yeah.
0:11:43 – I mean, this affects you too,
0:11:45 just being selfish if you’re a young man.
0:11:47 One, you’re gonna have less sex
0:11:49 and less bodily autonomy is restored.
0:11:53 Think about the reason why, I mean, essentially,
0:11:56 men wanna spread their seed to the four corners of the earth
0:11:58 and women put up a much finer filter
0:12:01 to try and attract the smartest, strongest and fastest seed.
0:12:02 And I know that sounds reductive and crude,
0:12:04 but I have evidence to prove this.
0:12:06 And because of the downside of pregnancy
0:12:08 is so much greater for women than for men,
0:12:11 women are more selective when it comes
0:12:14 to random sexual encounters.
0:12:15 And if you ask young men,
0:12:18 would you rather have more or less random sexual encounters
0:12:20 that might turn into a relationship,
0:12:21 that might turn into a family,
0:12:23 that might turn into kids?
0:12:25 I gotta think 90 plus percent of young men would think,
0:12:28 yeah, I’d rather have more opportunity
0:12:30 for sexual encounters.
0:12:33 If women believe that the downside of pregnancy
0:12:36 might be they have to carry the baby to term or worse,
0:12:39 they end up in an emergency room parking lot
0:12:43 with sepsis because doctors are afraid to treat her,
0:12:45 you’re gonna have less sex men.
0:12:48 So I go to just very selfish reasons
0:12:52 why men should be fighting for Harris and bodily autonomy.
0:12:54 And I don’t think men have gotten,
0:12:56 have received the message.
0:12:59 The thing I wanted to get your impression for,
0:13:03 I love unexpected surprises.
0:13:05 And I’m, this is my new thesis
0:13:07 on what I think is going to play
0:13:10 a critical role in an election that no one saw coming.
0:13:13 The October surprise I think is here.
0:13:17 And it’s the following and I’d love to get your response.
0:13:19 – Tony Hencliffe, who I’d never heard of.
0:13:21 He’s an actor kind of made famous,
0:13:23 or excuse me, a comedian made famous by Joe Rogan,
0:13:26 address the audience at the Trump rally
0:13:27 in Madison Square Garden.
0:13:28 And let me start off with,
0:13:32 I was shocked by how many Trump supporters
0:13:35 they were able to turn out in Manhattan.
0:13:37 – You know there are trains to Long Island.
0:13:39 That take you right in.
0:13:41 – But it’s a big stadium and it was passionate.
0:13:42 – Yeah, of course.
0:13:45 – I thought in deep blue territory,
0:13:47 it was really impressive that they turned out
0:13:50 so many diehard, enthusiastic Trump supporters.
0:13:53 So this comedian goes on to basically say,
0:13:58 there is this 50 ton island of floating trash
0:14:01 in the Caribbean and it’s Puerto Rico.
0:14:04 – There’s literally a floating island of garbage
0:14:06 in the middle of the ocean right now.
0:14:08 Yeah, I think it’s called Puerto Rico.
0:14:13 – There are 400,000 Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania.
0:14:17 – I thought this comment was so,
0:14:19 not only did it not land,
0:14:21 and I think you gotta cut comedians a pretty wide berth.
0:14:24 I’m very forgiving of comedians,
0:14:28 but this seemed to illuminate the Trump DNA
0:14:30 in such a negative way.
0:14:33 And that clip has gone viral.
0:14:36 And if I’m a Puerto Rican who maybe was supporting Harris
0:14:39 but not that enthusiastic and wasn’t gonna turn out,
0:14:42 I think she might get an incremental 10 or 15,000 votes
0:14:45 in Pennsylvania, which might swing Pennsylvania,
0:14:48 which might swing the election.
0:14:52 I think Tony Hinchcliffe, and that’s his name, Hinchcliffe,
0:14:54 might be the October surprise
0:14:56 that Harris fans were looking for.
0:15:01 – So I was following along to the rally via acts,
0:15:05 driving back from seeing Disney Junior, the live show.
0:15:07 So we could talk about that another day.
0:15:10 – You know what, that would be a toss up for me,
0:15:12 a Trump rally or the Disney,
0:15:15 I really wouldn’t know what to do there.
0:15:17 – I struggled, hardcore struggled,
0:15:21 went down to kind of, to Red Bank, New Jersey,
0:15:25 total Trump country to see Disney Junior.
0:15:29 My daughter, looking like she stroked out
0:15:32 when she saw Minnie in person, which was adorable.
0:15:35 You know, the little kid dancing is so cute.
0:15:39 But anyway, I’m following along to this MSG hot mess.
0:15:44 And I too, I wasn’t surprised that he filled the arena,
0:15:46 but I was talking to friends who were in there,
0:15:49 including reporters who said, it’s super common here.
0:15:51 Everyone is really nice.
0:15:55 It feels quite joyous, celebratory of everything
0:15:58 that Donald Trump is as a showman and entertainer.
0:15:59 And I totally get it.
0:16:01 Like he’s a lifelong New Yorker, you come back,
0:16:04 you sell out the garden, I mean, not sell out,
0:16:06 but you know what I mean, you fill the garden.
0:16:09 And I had heard Tony Hinchcliffe before,
0:16:12 because he was part of Tom Brady’s roast.
0:16:16 And I thought he was hilarious, making fun of Tom Brady,
0:16:17 which is a little bit different
0:16:20 than making fun of Puerto Ricans like that.
0:16:22 And that was the first kind of set of clips
0:16:25 that really stood out to me as concerning
0:16:27 for the Trump campaign,
0:16:30 because you saw the immediate backlash.
0:16:33 So Bad Bunny was up right away,
0:16:36 I think it’s 45 million followers with a video
0:16:40 that Kamala had cut for Puerto Ricans, posted that,
0:16:42 then JLo, then Ricky Martin.
0:16:47 So within like 10 minutes, 115 million followers
0:16:51 had been activated against Donald Trump because of this clip.
0:16:54 And it was a reminder to a lot of people.
0:16:57 And I think Ricky Martin actually used
0:16:59 the old footage of Trump after Hurricane Maria,
0:17:01 where he showed up and he threw paper towels
0:17:05 at people who had just had their homes absolutely decimated.
0:17:10 And I thought, okay, this might be in your words,
0:17:12 the October surprise of it,
0:17:14 which is basically that Trump can never
0:17:16 just stick with a good thing.
0:17:18 Like people think you’re kind of human,
0:17:20 and that you kind of don’t think these things.
0:17:23 And because you wanna have the raunchiest
0:17:24 and the funniest guy here.
0:17:26 And by the way, First Amendment protected,
0:17:28 it was a joke, I didn’t find that funny.
0:17:31 I don’t think we should be policing comedians in any way.
0:17:36 But a comedy show and a political rally are very different.
0:17:38 And you can expect if there had been
0:17:40 a Comedians for Kamala event,
0:17:42 and you had John Mulaney up there,
0:17:45 he wasn’t going to be insulting people like that.
0:17:46 He’s gonna be making fun of himself.
0:17:49 Or even if you had someone more out there,
0:17:50 like Dave Chappelle or Bill Burr,
0:17:52 they might make a few policy jokes.
0:17:54 Like Bill Burr actually has this hilarious bit
0:17:56 that he does about abortion.
0:17:57 And he’s a pro-choice supporter,
0:18:00 but he basically talks about how it is murder.
0:18:02 And it’s like a half-baked pie.
0:18:05 He’s like, you’re not gonna say that it’s not a pie
0:18:07 just because you only half-baked it, right?
0:18:09 Like those are all things that I can get on board with,
0:18:11 but there’s no way that they would have
0:18:13 stepped over the line that far.
0:18:17 And then so you have the liberal supporters that come out.
0:18:19 But then you see the conservatives,
0:18:21 like Rick Scott, the senator from Florida
0:18:23 who is in a reelection battle,
0:18:26 immediately says this is not right.
0:18:27 This is not what I think of Puerto Ricans.
0:18:28 Puerto Ricans are great people.
0:18:30 You see other GOP officials.
0:18:31 We’re gonna talk a little bit
0:18:34 about down-ballot races towards the end of the podcast.
0:18:38 There’s a guy, Diaz Pizito, who’s out in Suffolk County.
0:18:40 He looks like he’s gonna lose his race,
0:18:41 a Republican former cop.
0:18:44 I think he was the only vulnerable Democrat
0:18:48 or only Republican congressman or woman from New York
0:18:49 who actually showed up at the rally.
0:18:53 He’s immediately has to say, what the F is this?
0:18:55 I don’t think this at all.
0:18:56 So I think it was a complete disaster,
0:18:58 not to mention then that, you know,
0:18:59 Steven Miller goes on to say,
0:19:02 America is for Americans and Americans only.
0:19:06 To really bring the messaging home.
0:19:10 But I’m sure that what felt like a joyous occasion
0:19:12 in the aftermath, you know,
0:19:14 the Trump campaign put out a statement
0:19:16 saying that it doesn’t reflect their views.
0:19:19 Well, I’m sorry, it’s pretty precisely your campaign’s views.
0:19:21 If you pick the guy and the joke
0:19:23 was loaded in the teleprompter, right?
0:19:24 He didn’t make this up.
0:19:26 He wasn’t riffing.
0:19:29 Yeah, I would fire a Harris.
0:19:31 I’d be taking some of that precious airtime
0:19:34 that they have blocked across every local news station
0:19:36 in kind of the full employment act
0:19:37 for local broadcast news stations
0:19:39 in Pennsylvania and the swing states.
0:19:40 And I would just be running that clip,
0:19:43 that this is what the Republican party thinks of,
0:19:45 thinks of our, you know,
0:19:47 brothers and sisters here in America.
0:19:52 That struck me as, wow, this can’t,
0:19:53 and this is a real,
0:19:55 this is a significant population.
0:19:59 And I would imagine that this qualifies as a population
0:20:03 that A might not be, is inclined to vote for Harris.
0:20:06 It strikes me, this is really fertile ground
0:20:08 and they’ve just given us,
0:20:10 as being Democrats of the Harris campaign,
0:20:11 a softball here.
0:20:14 I wonder if this is gonna be,
0:20:15 especially in Pennsylvania,
0:20:19 I had no idea, 400,000 Puerto Ricans.
0:20:22 We’ll be right back.
0:20:24 (upbeat music)
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0:23:40 – Thank you.
0:23:46 – Meanwhile, Trump is making his closing argument,
0:23:48 leaning heavily into a message of fear,
0:23:49 particularly around immigration.
0:23:52 He had a big rally, as we referenced at MSG,
0:23:55 with many of the same folks that appeared at the RNC.
0:23:57 He also went on Joe Rogan’s podcast,
0:24:02 which I thought was very smart on the part of their campaign,
0:24:06 which is huge as Rogan has 14 million Spotify followers.
0:24:08 This was, it felt like an attempt to appeal
0:24:11 to young, low propensity male voters.
0:24:12 Let’s listen to a clip.
0:24:17 – So I have a son who’s very smart and tall, Baron, right?
0:24:19 And he knows all about you.
0:24:21 He knows about guys I never heard of.
0:24:24 He said, “Dad, you don’t know how big they are, they’re big.”
0:24:26 You know, he said, “Who the hell is he?”
0:24:30 Like Ross, I did, he said, “Dad, he’s a great guy.”
0:24:34 I mean, guys said, “It’s a whole new world out there.”
0:24:37 It’s a different world. – But you know, I’m on TikTok now.
0:24:39 – Congratulations. – And I’ve done really well.
0:24:40 No, but do you know the crazy,
0:24:42 have you seen the numbers?
0:24:45 Billions, like billions of hits, it’s crazy.
0:24:47 – I’m sure TikTok’s a wild application.
0:24:50 – And I’ve gone up 30 points.
0:24:53 A Republican has always downed 30 with young people.
0:24:55 I’m plus 30.
0:24:58 And I’m on TikTok, it’s had a huge impact.
0:25:01 – Young people are rejecting a lot of this woke bullshit.
0:25:05 Young people are tired of being yelled at and scolded.
0:25:06 They’re tired of these people
0:25:08 that they think are mentally ill,
0:25:09 telling them what the moral standards
0:25:11 of society should be today.
0:25:11 And people are upset.
0:25:13 – Your thoughts, Jess?
0:25:17 – Well, it was three hours, so I have many thoughts.
0:25:22 I think net net a positive for him to do that.
0:25:24 Exposure is always a good thing,
0:25:28 especially when he’s weaving, I think that’s the term he likes.
0:25:29 At one point, Rogan is like,
0:25:30 “You gotta weave a little less.”
0:25:34 Right, like I am actually trying to ask you something here.
0:25:37 Obviously that stat he threw out is completely incorrect.
0:25:39 The final Harvard youth poll came out
0:25:43 and she’s up 30 with young voters to be expected.
0:25:46 And people should cross tab dive through the ABC poll
0:25:49 from the weekend, which was really good for her head,
0:25:51 her up four, but also performing better
0:25:53 with black men and Latino men than Biden did even.
0:25:56 So we’ll see if that ends up checking out.
0:26:01 But one thing that Rogan did that I admired him for,
0:26:03 and I also thought that the venue was so perfect
0:26:07 for him to do this because it was not adversarial at all.
0:26:09 He called him out on the BS
0:26:13 about winning the 2020 election in a direct way,
0:26:15 but also a comforting way.
0:26:18 So that Trump didn’t feel like he was being accused
0:26:20 of something necessarily.
0:26:22 Rogan just said, “Are you ever gonna show us
0:26:23 “what you’re talking about?”
0:26:25 And that’s always been the problem
0:26:29 that they tell this grand story of stolen votes
0:26:32 and all these poll workers that were cheating
0:26:36 and all of the inaccuracies and the frauds and blah, blah, blah.
0:26:38 And they’ve never shown anything.
0:26:41 And people who have gone to jail will go to jail for that.
0:26:43 I mean, Rudy Giuliani owns nothing anymore.
0:26:45 Those election workers in Georgia
0:26:47 own his apartment on the Upper East Side
0:26:49 as a result of all of this.
0:26:51 So I really appreciated that Rogan did that.
0:26:54 And he said in his interview that the negotiations
0:26:56 with Kamala’s team are still alive,
0:26:59 whereas Kamala’s spokesperson said that it was a no-go,
0:27:01 said it was due to scheduling.
0:27:03 So I mean, obviously that’s not the case.
0:27:05 And I assume that she wanted some guardrails
0:27:07 that he wouldn’t offer,
0:27:08 but I think she totally should do it.
0:27:10 – She should have done it 100%.
0:27:12 – Like what could happen to you?
0:27:13 Is it could it be worse than losing the election?
0:27:16 I don’t know, that seems like the worst.
0:27:19 – No, and he’s, as an interviewer,
0:27:22 one thing I do like about Rogan
0:27:24 is when I started podcasting,
0:27:26 I was used to think it was my job to have a gotcha moment.
0:27:28 And then I realized Sam Harris said something
0:27:30 that always struck me that
0:27:32 he tries to present people in their best light.
0:27:33 And I try and do that now.
0:27:36 And I actually think Rogan does that, he’ll push back.
0:27:39 But he doesn’t try and have a gotcha moment.
0:27:42 Like Brett Baer was trying to corner her.
0:27:45 He started with some, he was trying to,
0:27:47 he had questions that were gotcha questions
0:27:49 with a follow-up and thinking she would respond this way.
0:27:54 And quite frankly, CNN does the same thing to candidates
0:27:56 who are from the right, he doesn’t do that.
0:27:58 She would have come out of this much more positive
0:28:03 and as we’ve said, Trump going on Rogan reached more people
0:28:08 than if he had gone on primetime CNN, MSNBC and Fox
0:28:11 every night, every week night for a week.
0:28:13 I mean, this guy, it really has changed
0:28:16 the complexion of the media landscape is these podcasts.
0:28:19 I think it’s a huge mistake
0:28:20 for her not to have done that.
0:28:22 And then I had this weird triggering moment
0:28:26 when I was in that clip and that is he described his son,
0:28:30 he said, “So I have a son who’s very smart and tall.”
0:28:34 And I thought, as a father, I would just never end tall.
0:28:37 Like, who cares?
0:28:39 That is like the last way I would describe my son.
0:28:41 I wouldn’t-
0:28:43 – Well, he’s obsessed with physicality.
0:28:46 – It’s just so weird to say that, you know, I have-
0:28:48 – I mean, he’s like six, nine, he’s like really tall.
0:28:50 – It’d be cooler if he was a basketball player
0:28:52 and you say, “Oh, he’s really tall, he’s a basketball player.”
0:28:54 – Yeah, and he’s at NYU and I’m happy he’s there.
0:28:55 I hope he has a wonderful experience.
0:28:59 But I thought this guy just his approach to fathering.
0:29:02 I just found it’s so weird that dad would describe
0:29:03 his son that way.
0:29:04 Anyways.
0:29:06 – Can I just quickly, before we get off this?
0:29:08 So he, I mean, three hours again,
0:29:10 a lot of opportunity to weave,
0:29:12 but he did a lot of historical stuff.
0:29:16 So he was wrong about which son of Lincoln’s died,
0:29:18 but he’s talking about like McKinley
0:29:21 and origins of tariffs.
0:29:25 And I couldn’t really follow a ton of it,
0:29:30 but I wonder if that does make a low information voter
0:29:34 think this guy knows more about what he’s talking about
0:29:35 than he actually does,
0:29:37 that you can even like throw these names into it.
0:29:40 Cause you know how sometimes when you’re so overwhelmed
0:29:43 and the zone is so proverbially flooded by things,
0:29:45 that you just hear a few things
0:29:48 and you assume that someone gets it
0:29:50 or knows what they’re talking about.
0:29:52 – Look, I hate to admit it.
0:29:53 I didn’t listen all three hours.
0:29:55 And that’s the reason I don’t listen
0:29:56 to Rogan or Lex Friedman.
0:29:58 And they’re kind of the original gangsters.
0:30:00 They’re both fantastic at what they do.
0:30:02 And I’ve said, despite that,
0:30:05 I don’t agree with a lot of Joe’s comments.
0:30:08 Every podcaster should send a royalty into Rogan
0:30:10 because he’s kind of busted open the medium.
0:30:14 But on the whole, that was a big win for him
0:30:18 because putting him in a relaxed atmosphere,
0:30:21 he, it softens his image and he needs that right now.
0:30:23 He comes across as the kind of guy,
0:30:25 at least I thought Trump came across as the kind of guy.
0:30:28 One, I thought he came across as old and age old
0:30:30 and not having any sense of history
0:30:34 or clearly has not only doesn’t fact check himself,
0:30:36 but doesn’t think anyone’s gonna fact check him
0:30:37 that will have any importance.
0:30:40 That he can just say whatever he wants.
0:30:43 But he came across as a guy you could grab a beer with.
0:30:45 He came across, in my opinion, is more likable.
0:30:49 He did at one point kind of laugh at himself.
0:30:54 The data itself or the historical inaccuracies
0:30:58 were just everywhere, but it doesn’t seem to matter.
0:31:03 And Van Jones had kind of the right,
0:31:06 I mean, and Michelle Obama brought it up as well,
0:31:09 but Van Jones did it first on CNN.
0:31:12 You know, he’s lawless and she’s expected to be flawless.
0:31:15 This is the mother of all grading on a curve
0:31:17 that is entirely different.
0:31:21 It is just, I mean, everyone is waiting.
0:31:24 And again, Michelle was so powerful.
0:31:26 Everyone’s waiting to parse every word she says
0:31:28 on an interview.
0:31:30 And then he gets up and says shit
0:31:34 that’s just blatantly wrong and weird and never happened
0:31:38 or goes off on a crazy tangent or says,
0:31:41 I don’t wanna answer questions, let’s listen to music.
0:31:46 If she did any of the things he does in any interview,
0:31:49 it would be like, Democrats in the press would be like,
0:31:52 oh my God, she’s lost it, she’s lost.
0:31:55 The Harris campaign is absolutely screwed up.
0:31:56 Absolutely screwed up not going on Rogan.
0:31:58 It would have been a huge win for the last thing
0:32:02 he was gonna do would be to go after
0:32:05 the Democratic female candidate of color.
0:32:06 He just wouldn’t have gone there.
0:32:08 And in general, Joe does try to give people
0:32:11 some running room and give them, in my opinion,
0:32:13 he gives them too much the benefit of the doubt.
0:32:14 When he brings on a total fucking quack
0:32:18 to say that mRNA vaccines all to your DNA,
0:32:20 he doesn’t say, well, is there any peer-reviewed research
0:32:22 that says there’s any veracity to that statement?
0:32:25 I don’t know if you knew this actually pulled my pilot
0:32:26 office spotify for a year.
0:32:27 I was so triggered by the whole thing.
0:32:29 But anyways, enough virtue signaling.
0:32:31 I think it was a win for him.
0:32:33 I think it was a win for him.
0:32:35 – Definitely and a good part of the closing argument,
0:32:37 which obviously the MSG rally was
0:32:41 and Kamala will be doing this speech at the ellipse
0:32:43 at clearly making, you know, protecting democracy
0:32:45 at the core of her clothes.
0:32:47 I personally would have preferred her to go
0:32:52 to an auto factory in Michigan or even a hospital,
0:32:54 you know, to talk about healthcare,
0:32:57 the people who really keep the country going.
0:33:00 But obviously this is a calculated decision
0:33:01 that they’ve made.
0:33:04 I think that those persuadable right-leaning Indies
0:33:07 and Republicans are more into protecting democracy.
0:33:09 But what do you think about that?
0:33:10 – I think you’re absolutely right.
0:33:13 I think one of the biggest mistakes we as Democrats
0:33:15 keep making is that we keep thinking if we keep talking
0:33:17 about what’s wrong with him, it’ll work.
0:33:19 That strategy has not worked.
0:33:21 She needs to talk about what’s right with her.
0:33:25 And that is the policy around Medicare,
0:33:28 such that your parents can die at home,
0:33:31 the policies around lack of tariffs,
0:33:33 the first home buyers.
0:33:36 She needs to play offense around why you should vote for me
0:33:38 as opposed to why you should not vote for him.
0:33:39 I agree with you.
0:33:43 She should have made an economic argument at the end
0:33:45 and talk about her policy.
0:33:46 The other kind of news,
0:33:48 and I’ll obviously give you my view up front,
0:33:52 I don’t think it’s big news, if you will,
0:33:55 is last week Trump’s longest serving chief of staff,
0:33:57 retired Marine General, John Kelly,
0:33:59 told The New York Times that in his view,
0:34:02 Trump would govern like a dictator if reelected.
0:34:05 Let’s listen to some of the audio that was released.
0:34:07 – Do you think he’s a fascist?
0:34:11 – Well, I’m looking at the definition of fascism.
0:34:15 It’s a far-right authoritarian,
0:34:18 ultra-nationalist political ideology movement
0:34:21 characterized by a dictatorial leader,
0:34:24 centralized hypocrisy, militarism,
0:34:27 forcible suppression of opposition,
0:34:30 belief in a natural social hierarchy.
0:34:36 So certainly, in my experience,
0:34:40 those are the kinds of things that he’s worked with work
0:34:43 that are in terms of running America.
0:34:44 – Well, I have a couple of questions here if you just.
0:34:49 First is, I would not agree with General Kelly’s policies,
0:34:52 I would bet, but it’s just weird.
0:34:55 We can’t get guys like that to run for president.
0:34:57 I mean, it’s clearly just so knowledgeable
0:34:59 and thoughtful and measured.
0:35:00 Do you think this is damaging for Trump
0:35:03 that Kelly has come out and said this?
0:35:05 – I think it’s always a problem
0:35:08 if somebody that respected,
0:35:10 and we should be honest about this.
0:35:14 I mean, Trump’s team, the ones who are still loyal to him,
0:35:17 have come out and say he hated him from the start.
0:35:20 He has always been insubordinate,
0:35:23 which is probably a four-star Marine general insubordinate,
0:35:26 but that he had an axe to grind and this is all made up
0:35:29 and has gotten a lot of quite credible people actually
0:35:32 to disparage Mark Milley and John Kelly.
0:35:35 But I think it can’t ever be good for you
0:35:37 that you have people on the record.
0:35:40 And this isn’t the Murmurs campaign anymore.
0:35:42 John Kelly sat down with Michael Schmidt at the times
0:35:44 and said this stuff on audio
0:35:47 and Kamala can use it in that way
0:35:49 and that can make it even more powerful
0:35:51 because I mean, this was a fight I was having on the five
0:35:55 with my colleagues on Friday about the fascism thing.
0:35:56 They said, she’s calling him a fascist.
0:36:01 I said, no, John Kelly in his voice is calling him a fascist.
0:36:03 And I do think if these late breakers,
0:36:07 the only undecideds left are people
0:36:10 that are partial to this argument
0:36:13 that this guy doesn’t care about the constitution.
0:36:14 He doesn’t care how you vote.
0:36:17 And there’s a ton of evidence
0:36:18 that what they are doing right now,
0:36:22 even in like what Tucker Carlson said in the MSG rally,
0:36:27 that they are making it seem as though his win
0:36:32 is so clearly ordained that anything but a Trump victory
0:36:37 will be fraud and that you will have to rise up
0:36:38 to take your country back.
0:36:40 The groundwork for that is happening.
0:36:42 And I think we’ve been talking on this for weeks.
0:36:44 That’s part of the complacency as well
0:36:46 with the get out the vote operation.
0:36:49 You know, giving it to Scott Pressler and Charlie Kirk.
0:36:51 You know, we’re knocking on a million doors
0:36:53 and they’re listening to Rogan.
0:36:55 It’s a very different world
0:36:57 in terms of how this is campaigning.
0:37:01 So not, not I think it’s always bad to be called a fascist,
0:37:05 but I do think it stands that people,
0:37:06 it’s your hard press to move people
0:37:09 about how they feel about Donald Trump at this point.
0:37:12 – The Trump campaign responded by calling Kelly’s claims,
0:37:13 debunked story is an accusing him
0:37:16 of having Trump arrangement syndrome.
0:37:17 By the way, I’ve been called to,
0:37:18 I’ve been accused of that a lot.
0:37:19 Do you get accused of that?
0:37:20 – Yeah, I have TDS so bad.
0:37:22 – Yeah, everywhere, everywhere.
0:37:24 Do I need antibiotics anyways?
0:37:26 – No, leptards will be fine.
0:37:27 Don’t worry. – There you go.
0:37:29 Meanwhile, Harris sees the moment
0:37:31 to focus on democracy targeting Republicans
0:37:33 who may be wavering on Trump.
0:37:34 I personally, unfortunately,
0:37:36 I think this is a big nothing burger.
0:37:37 I think people are so used to,
0:37:40 I think four of his 44 former secretaries
0:37:41 or cabinet members are supporting him.
0:37:45 The notion that these people folks aren’t supporting him
0:37:47 is something that’s already been absorbed
0:37:49 into the ecosystem.
0:37:50 I thought the most interesting part of this is
0:37:53 I like a sexy Jake Tapper, I like him salty.
0:37:57 Did you see him with Senator Vance?
0:38:00 – Yeah, and Mike Johnson the weekend before.
0:38:04 – Yeah, he was not taking it from Senator Vance.
0:38:07 I thought, I’m really like, I’m like, Jake,
0:38:10 you big slice of man.
0:38:14 I thought he had some of that, like Tom Selleck fire in him.
0:38:16 I’m like, put a mustache on the guy and,
0:38:18 my gosh, what did you think of that?
0:38:20 Did you, what did you think of that interview?
0:38:21 – I thought it was great.
0:38:22 And I mean, when it’s so clear now
0:38:26 that the only way to be able to do this effectively
0:38:29 is to use their own words against them
0:38:31 or people’s own words.
0:38:33 Like Mike Johnson the weekend before,
0:38:37 you know, Trump does the Arnold Palmer’s
0:38:38 big downstairs thing.
0:38:39 And Mike Johnson was like,
0:38:41 I don’t know what you’re trying to do.
0:38:43 Tapper’s like, okay, well, I’ll just play it for you.
0:38:44 Right, you just sit there
0:38:47 and I will just play this for you.
0:38:48 Just to watch people squirm.
0:38:51 I think almost the optics of it,
0:38:53 oftentimes matter more than the words
0:38:55 where you see how visibly uncomfortable.
0:38:57 And you remember back to the early days of Trump,
0:38:59 even with people like Ted Cruz, right?
0:39:02 Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham, where they just can’t,
0:39:05 like their skin is crawling
0:39:07 and you can see it under their suits, right?
0:39:11 Like trying to be freed from how bad this is.
0:39:14 So I think it’s a very effective way to interview
0:39:15 and what you should be doing.
0:39:17 I mean, Brett did it with Kamala.
0:39:19 He did it with Trump last year or two years ago
0:39:21 and he said, here’s everything that people who worked
0:39:22 for you said about you.
0:39:24 How do you explain that?
0:39:25 Can they all be wrong?
0:39:28 To your point that only four are still supporting him.
0:39:31 But with eight days left,
0:39:35 I worry that nothing matters, except knocking on doors
0:39:37 and doing souls to the polls
0:39:40 and making sure that you’re energizing
0:39:41 the communities that need to turn out.
0:39:44 And Kamala spent all day yesterday in Philadelphia.
0:39:45 She went to church there.
0:39:48 She crisscrossed throughout all the neighborhoods
0:39:51 some very emotional and sweet scenes
0:39:53 of women embracing her and crying.
0:39:56 You know, feeling like it’s not going to be okay
0:40:00 this time around, especially because he’s a lame duck, right?
0:40:03 Like there’s no third Trump term.
0:40:05 Well, I mean, knock on wood, whatever.
0:40:07 Liz Cheney would say would probably try to find a way.
0:40:11 But people have this feeling of desperation
0:40:13 that there will be no guardrails
0:40:14 and you will get no John Kelly’s
0:40:16 that will work for him again.
0:40:20 – Mark Milley is sipping coronas on a beach somewhere, right?
0:40:22 He’s like, I am done with this.
0:40:25 And so who will staff this government?
0:40:28 You see even Miller and Tony Hinchcliffe?
0:40:32 – Yeah, it’s a, I agree with you.
0:40:33 I think at this point it’s,
0:40:35 I love that souls to the polls, feet on the street,
0:40:36 if you will. – Yep.
0:40:38 – All right, Jess, let’s take a quick break.
0:40:39 Stay with us.
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0:42:43 (gentle music)
0:42:44 – Welcome back.
0:42:46 So far, we’ve focused mostly on the presidential race,
0:42:49 but control of the House and Senate is also on the line,
0:42:52 and could have a huge impact on whoever wins the presidency.
0:42:54 Let’s dive into the Senate.
0:42:57 Do you think that Democrats can hold onto the Senate?
0:42:59 Which key races are you watching?
0:43:01 – So no, I don’t.
0:43:03 I’m resigned to it.
0:43:07 John Tester is fabulous, but feels a little done,
0:43:10 even with that crazy story that Chi,
0:43:13 who is running against, lied about where he got shot.
0:43:14 He said he got shot in Afghanistan,
0:43:16 but it was actually in a parking lot,
0:43:18 like outside of a national park.
0:43:22 Which you would think would be completely upending.
0:43:26 – Right, yeah, that’s kind of a key feature of being shot.
0:43:29 I was shot in combat, no, I was shot in the parking lot.
0:43:31 – Right, and we’re talking about Tim Walz
0:43:33 and the stolen baller, right?
0:43:37 Of not filling out the right paperwork on time.
0:43:39 One of the races I’m really interested too, on the Senate.
0:43:43 So Colin Allred has been running a fantastic campaign,
0:43:45 and I feel like we say this regularly,
0:43:48 like this might be the time we get rid of Ted Cruz.
0:43:51 And I don’t really think that,
0:43:54 but Colin Allred is doing so much better
0:43:55 than Beto did with this.
0:43:59 I mean, I think it’s also just who he is,
0:44:00 lands better with people.
0:44:03 And he’s taking on the culture war stuff so brilliantly.
0:44:06 I don’t know if I mentioned on the podcast before,
0:44:10 but he cut an ad saying he’s not for trans women
0:44:11 and women sports.
0:44:13 He’s just like, I played professional football.
0:44:15 This is ludicrous.
0:44:17 Ted Cruz is trying to say this about us.
0:44:20 And a fun fact actually, the number one issue
0:44:23 that Trump has been advertising on is anti-trans issues.
0:44:27 The economy in number five, trans stuff, number one.
0:44:29 So clearly they think they can win a culture war election.
0:44:32 But Colin Allred is within striking distance.
0:44:35 Some polls like two, three points behind.
0:44:36 Big deal, Kamala is there.
0:44:39 He showed up at that rally, spoke as well.
0:44:42 So Beyonce Allred and Kamala,
0:44:43 do you think there’s any shot
0:44:46 or we just keep fantasizing about a world without Ted Cruz?
0:44:49 – Well, the survey conducted by the New York Times
0:44:53 and Santa College shows that Cruz leads with 50% support
0:44:54 to 46 for Allred.
0:44:58 So it’s technically still in the margin of error,
0:45:02 but it feels marginable that,
0:45:04 or there’s a marginal shot here for Allred.
0:45:08 I, Cruz, this strikes me as the vampire of the Senate.
0:45:10 It just, we can’t kill the guy.
0:45:14 And he just feels Texas seems to like him.
0:45:16 And the thing is, if Allred loses,
0:45:19 my sense is Allred has ran almost a near perfect campaign.
0:45:21 The few times I have seen clips,
0:45:24 I’ve thought, wow, is this guy good?
0:45:26 And Cruz just looks so off his game,
0:45:28 like trying to respond to these things.
0:45:31 He’s put them on his heels every time they get together.
0:45:32 He’s had a central casting.
0:45:34 He’s thoughtful.
0:45:35 He comes across.
0:45:37 I would have thought that it,
0:45:39 the bottom line is if Allred can’t be Cruz,
0:45:41 I’m not sure, I think people are just gonna give up.
0:45:42 I think people are gonna,
0:45:44 Democrats are gonna wait till he dies
0:45:46 ’cause I think he’s run a great campaign.
0:45:48 – Or he just needs a bigger podcast deal.
0:45:50 The guy wants to be Joe Rogan
0:45:53 more than he wants to be a senator.
0:45:54 The other race I wanna talk about,
0:45:56 and I think if you don’t know about this guy,
0:45:58 you are going to love him so much
0:46:00 is what’s going on in Nebraska.
0:46:03 So there’s an independent guy named Dan Osborne.
0:46:04 He is a veteran.
0:46:07 He was a labor leader, a mechanic who was running.
0:46:10 He has been a registered independent in his whole life,
0:46:14 Deb Fischer, sitting Republican Senator, two term.
0:46:15 Dan Osborne in the New York Times,
0:46:19 Seattle poll from Monday is within two points of doing this.
0:46:22 Now Mitch McConnell last minute is having to send in
0:46:25 a ton of money, but Dan Osborne, I loved this quote.
0:46:27 And I thought like, does this guy listen to Scott
0:46:29 or does Scott listen to this guy?
0:46:31 He says, you know what I think it’s going to do?
0:46:31 This is if he wins.
0:46:33 If Nebraska does the right thing
0:46:35 and it’ll lack some mechanic to the halls of power,
0:46:38 the rest of the country is gonna say, holy crap,
0:46:39 did you see what Nebraska did?
0:46:42 And it’s going to tell people who are nurses, teachers,
0:46:46 plumbers, carpenters, bus drivers, other mechanics
0:46:48 that you don’t have to be a self-funding crypto billionaire
0:46:50 to run for office.
0:46:53 – Yeah, he’s very strong.
0:46:55 That might be the best.
0:46:57 I’ve already decided that the morning of the sixth,
0:46:59 I’m just gonna keep refreshing the results
0:47:04 on Lake Gallegos just for my own, just to make myself
0:47:05 feel better. – Just to feel good, yeah.
0:47:08 – Just to feel good ’cause it looks like,
0:47:09 it looks like she’s on her way to the feet.
0:47:11 – Yeah, well we’re in Gallegos run an amazing campaign too.
0:47:13 We should, I mean, he’s running against a lunatic,
0:47:17 but he’s done a good job like all right as well.
0:47:20 – I think he’s run a competent campaign.
0:47:22 She will lose this election.
0:47:23 I mean, A, she’s not qualified,
0:47:24 and B, she’s batched crazy.
0:47:27 But anyways, that would be the race you mentioned
0:47:30 in Nebraska, that would be super exciting.
0:47:32 I’m really disappointed about Senator Tester.
0:47:34 I think he’s been a really solid.
0:47:38 I think he’s done a great job of, again, another moderate
0:47:41 where there’s just no home for this person.
0:47:42 I think he’s done a fantastic job
0:47:45 and has really been a great senator.
0:47:47 So let’s get right to it.
0:47:48 So we talked a little bit about the Senate.
0:47:50 What do you think about Congress?
0:47:52 – My association, I’m knocking on wood.
0:47:54 I don’t know if this is real wood or fake wood,
0:47:58 but I knocked on it, is that we’ll take the house back.
0:48:00 And it’s cool to be in New York,
0:48:03 even though I went and voted on our first day
0:48:05 of early voting on Saturday.
0:48:07 Got my kids those future voter stickers.
0:48:10 But my seat, doesn’t matter.
0:48:12 I’m in Dan Goldman’s territory,
0:48:16 but a few really exciting races in New York.
0:48:20 Arguably, we’re the ones that lost it a couple of years ago
0:48:23 when George Santos was even able to take a seat.
0:48:26 So I already mentioned Anthony Giasposito,
0:48:29 who’s running, I think it’s New York four.
0:48:30 He is down.
0:48:34 He hired his mistress and his fiance’s daughter to work.
0:48:36 I think both of them in the same office are very strange.
0:48:37 – At the same time?
0:48:38 – I think so.
0:48:39 – Pretty warm, huh?
0:48:40 Oh, that’s wrong.
0:48:41 That was wrong.
0:48:43 – Yeah, that was wrong.
0:48:44 I actually was gonna try to gloss over it,
0:48:46 but you repeated it twice.
0:48:49 So he seems to be down pretty significantly.
0:48:51 Mike Lawler and Mondair Jones,
0:48:54 that’s an interesting race that has a blackface component
0:48:56 from Mike Lawler dressing up as Michael Jackson,
0:48:59 Mondair Jones, part of the squad.
0:49:03 So that tension going on.
0:49:08 John Avlon running out in the nice, fancy part of the Hamptons
0:49:12 and then also more rural Suffolk County has been fascinating.
0:49:15 He was down only four in the latest polling
0:49:17 and Mark Molinaro upstate.
0:49:19 He only won by 6,000 votes as a Republican.
0:49:22 So there’s potential to take that back
0:49:23 and that’s a rematch as well.
0:49:28 – Yeah, it’s gonna be, does it give you any comfort?
0:49:30 And I don’t wanna be a defeatist,
0:49:35 but say Trump does emerge as the victor here.
0:49:39 Given the map, which was terrible for Democrats this election
0:49:42 and would be much better in 2026
0:49:45 and given that traditionally a midterm election
0:49:48 typically swings way back towards the party
0:49:49 that didn’t win the presidency,
0:49:52 given that it’ll probably be kind of a pretty wonderfully
0:49:54 intransigent government,
0:49:55 which is the reason we have three branches
0:49:57 regardless of what happens.
0:50:00 Do you think Democrats would have any comfort
0:50:03 knowing that most likely 2026
0:50:05 might be a pretty good opportunity
0:50:08 to take back control of the Senate and the House
0:50:09 if there’s a Trump victory?
0:50:13 – I mean, sure.
0:50:16 Yeah, like you’re really grasping at straws.
0:50:18 I don’t think that you can say to any Democrat
0:50:22 with a week out, like will this make you feel better
0:50:23 if Donald Trump is the president?
0:50:25 No, nothing will make me feel better
0:50:26 at least for a really long time.
0:50:28 Winning is great.
0:50:31 I would love to have the opportunity to take back the Senate.
0:50:35 I hope that it’s just a small margin in their side
0:50:39 and that they need JD Vance to be breaking all the ties
0:50:39 and things like that.
0:50:43 But no, I think that people have woken up.
0:50:47 Do you remember, as recline reported,
0:50:50 after he did the first shot across Biden’s bow
0:50:52 where he said, “You should go out then.
0:50:53 We had the State of the Union.”
0:50:54 And then he said, “Oh, maybe I was wrong.”
0:50:55 Then he was like, “Oh, I saw the debate.
0:50:57 I definitely was right.”
0:50:59 But he said that he was getting the sense
0:51:01 that Democrats actually weren’t that scared
0:51:03 about another Trump term.
0:51:05 That there was a lot of bluster,
0:51:07 but in reality, they’d worked with him before.
0:51:10 And there even Bob Casey and Tammy Baldwin
0:51:13 have cut ads talking about working with Trump,
0:51:16 which obviously signals that they are in A, tight races,
0:51:18 but B, that they don’t think
0:51:21 that this is absolutely the end of the world.
0:51:25 I feel like the energy now is where it should be
0:51:27 and that people aren’t being as lax
0:51:31 as they were about the Trump threat.
0:51:33 Do you feel like the energy is at the level
0:51:34 that it should be?
0:51:37 – So this goes into,
0:51:40 I mean, we have to have a,
0:51:42 each of us has to have a prediction here
0:51:43 or something resembling a prediction
0:51:46 and more so than our prediction for the candidate.
0:51:47 What is the underlying element
0:51:50 or the surprise that might happen here?
0:51:52 And I think the energy is very positive
0:51:54 for Harris right now other than,
0:51:58 in this confirmation bias, full disclosure,
0:52:01 there are 10 more, 10 X the number of feet on the street
0:52:03 getting people to the polls,
0:52:06 Democrats versus Republicans.
0:52:09 This election is becoming so tight
0:52:11 and the geographic coverage is so tiny
0:52:13 in terms of what’s going to decide this.
0:52:14 It isn’t even a small number of swing states.
0:52:17 It’s a small number of swing counties
0:52:18 that I think those feet on the street,
0:52:21 this might be the election of podcasts
0:52:25 and of feet of the most analog thing ever.
0:52:26 And that is knocking on a door
0:52:28 and saying the election is today,
0:52:31 have you voted or it’s tomorrow, have you voted?
0:52:34 I remember when I was in San Francisco,
0:52:35 they somehow knew I hadn’t voted
0:52:37 and they knocked on my door three times.
0:52:39 I mean, they literally shamed me.
0:52:39 I was going to vote,
0:52:43 but they shamed me until like they kept showing up saying,
0:52:44 they haven’t voted yet.
0:52:45 – Now is the time.
0:52:45 – Yeah, let’s go now.
0:52:46 Do you want to go now?
0:52:47 Here’s some coffee.
0:52:48 Can I hold your hand?
0:52:49 – Yeah.
0:52:53 – You know, and I do think that that might carry us over.
0:52:56 And then my, and I’ll turn this back to you.
0:52:57 And then the other thing
0:53:00 that I think is the October surprise here,
0:53:02 I think you’re going to hear the name Tony Hinchcliffe
0:53:05 a lot more in the next eight days
0:53:08 and 400,000 Puerto Ricans
0:53:13 in the swing state can’t feel good
0:53:15 about the Republican party right now.
0:53:20 I saw this thing and I thought, wow, that is just,
0:53:23 comedy is the art or art is the ability
0:53:25 to get away with it, to say something.
0:53:26 And I try to do this.
0:53:28 You try to do it occasionally on the five with humor
0:53:32 and that is to say something that is pushes the envelope
0:53:36 but you soften the beach with comedy.
0:53:39 And this was the art of not getting away with it.
0:53:44 He said something blatantly racist and it fell so flat.
0:53:47 It didn’t land so hard
0:53:49 that it was the worst of all worlds for them.
0:53:51 It feeds exactly into the fear people have
0:53:53 about this administration.
0:53:55 And clearly nobody did the math and said,
0:53:58 you realize this is a big constituency
0:54:00 in the most important state.
0:54:05 So my prediction is that I do like what Michelle Obama said
0:54:08 about men need to move to protection
0:54:10 and are you there to protect us
0:54:12 to the feet on the street?
0:54:17 And three, I think this Tony Hinchcliffe debacle might,
0:54:20 if it gets 3,000 people,
0:54:23 I mean, that’s literally what we’re down to at this point.
0:54:27 I think those three things are going to potentially,
0:54:30 I’m predicting this is not only gonna be a win for Harris,
0:54:32 it’s gonna be a decisive win.
0:54:36 And that is a huge proximity bias.
0:54:38 This is me trying to tell myself,
0:54:42 I think I can, I think I can.
0:54:43 I’m a brave strong,
0:54:45 when you see those TikToks of the four-year-old girl
0:54:48 jumping off something and she’s like, I am courageous,
0:54:52 I’m strong, I mean, this is me trying to keep myself saying,
0:54:54 but that’s my prediction.
0:54:56 What are your thoughts eight days out?
0:55:01 – So I am, like I said, I’m having a more optimistic day
0:55:03 and my emotions are all over the place
0:55:06 not to be too female about it.
0:55:09 Unsurprisingly, I have highs and lows
0:55:10 and it usually depends on my blood sugar.
0:55:12 – We have those too.
0:55:12 – No, I know.
0:55:15 – I just turned to alcohol, but anyways, go ahead.
0:55:16 – Yeah, I’m trying to avoid that.
0:55:18 It’s just not great taking care of a baby that way,
0:55:20 but we could get there.
0:55:25 My prediction is that the shy voter of this election
0:55:28 is the right-leaning person.
0:55:33 It’s not the Trump voter that we had in 2016
0:55:35 and to a lesser degree in 2020,
0:55:37 but the right-leaning person
0:55:40 who casts a country over party vote.
0:55:43 And there’s been a lot of very good journalism
0:55:48 from interviews about how many people are saying,
0:55:51 I just can’t do it.
0:55:54 I just can’t vote for him in this scenario.
0:55:56 I don’t love her.
0:56:00 I don’t necessarily think that I know her that well.
0:56:03 And it does keep coming up consistently
0:56:05 that not having a good answer on immigration,
0:56:08 even if immigration is not your big issue,
0:56:11 is something that is very bothersome to people.
0:56:14 And for me, die hard down.
0:56:15 I feel that way as well.
0:56:17 I don’t know how they haven’t figured out
0:56:19 something better to say about that,
0:56:23 but that people are just gonna go in the voting booth
0:56:25 and quietly do their business and vote for Kamala.
0:56:28 Kind of what Brett Stevens articulated
0:56:30 in his, you know, in the conversation
0:56:32 with Gail Collins last weekend when he said it.
0:56:36 So I think that in general,
0:56:38 a black and Latino men in particular
0:56:40 will quote unquote come home.
0:56:43 That Trump will perform better than he did before,
0:56:46 but it won’t be these kinds of huge realignments
0:56:47 that we had been seeing.
0:56:49 But Kamala wins.
0:56:54 There will be a much needed autopsy
0:56:56 on who the Democratic Party is,
0:57:00 because if we manage to pull this off,
0:57:01 if she does win,
0:57:05 because we will have won this on the votes of people
0:57:09 who are not ours for future elections.
0:57:11 If they were on a normal Republican again,
0:57:13 you know, if it’s Glenn Youngkin or somebody,
0:57:16 they’re not with us anymore.
0:57:20 And we need to do a lot of, you know,
0:57:23 good, long-hard thinking about how we have been messaging
0:57:27 to men, to minority voters, in some cases, even to women.
0:57:30 You should always have the highest goals possible.
0:57:34 And I think that I don’t wanna let, you know,
0:57:36 perfect be the enemy of the good.
0:57:38 I hope that we have done good enough,
0:57:41 but Liz Cheney is a rental.
0:57:43 We do not own Liz Cheney.
0:57:46 And I think about that a lot.
0:57:48 – It’s funny ’cause I think if Trump wins,
0:57:51 the Republican Party is literally gonna need
0:57:53 to be totally reconfigured.
0:57:53 – That’s what my husband says.
0:57:55 He’s like, it needs to be blown up.
0:57:56 – Where are they?
0:57:57 – Yeah.
0:57:58 – They would literally have to go.
0:58:01 They’re like, okay, the verdict is in.
0:58:02 There’s no, you know,
0:58:05 turning chicken shit into chicken salad here.
0:58:08 This guy is basically taking the Republican Party down.
0:58:11 When a lot of their issues seem to resonate
0:58:14 and like we kicked out all the old line Republicans,
0:58:16 what is the new, who are the new Republicans?
0:58:17 – It’s J.D. Vance.
0:58:20 Then J.D. Vance really is the future of the party.
0:58:21 – That’s really interesting.
0:58:23 That’s really interesting.
0:58:27 So I wanna read some, just as we wrap up here,
0:58:29 I just wanna read some of your quotes.
0:58:32 I’m there to represent at least of the voting public,
0:58:35 the majority of Americans, Ms. Tarlow said over
0:58:39 a recent breakfast, we, she meant Democrats in 2020,
0:58:40 got 81 million votes.
0:58:42 There are more of me than there are of them.
0:58:45 Her goal, she said, is to inject a Democratic perspective
0:58:48 into the Fox bloodstream while showing viewers
0:58:52 that ideological foes can still get along.
0:58:54 I also wanna win elections, said Ms. Tarlow,
0:58:57 who got her start in politics working for Douglas Shown,
0:59:01 Shane Shown, Shown a Democratic pollster.
0:59:03 And I think that being on the most watched show
0:59:05 is the best place to be.
0:59:10 And then you literally, at some point,
0:59:13 I mean, I do, I really do like you.
0:59:14 So I just kept smiling. – Using my mom wrote it.
0:59:16 – Oh my God. – I got a lot of texts
0:59:17 like that, like did Judy write this?
0:59:19 – Jesus. – Yeah.
0:59:21 – It’s just– – But that’s,
0:59:22 I don’t know, I’ve made this case
0:59:24 and I think I’ve persuaded you a bit about it.
0:59:27 You know, the undecideds are the ones watching Fox
0:59:31 and that is an important reason to be there.
0:59:36 But people want to tune in to see real conversation
0:59:40 and to your souls to the polls point.
0:59:41 There are more of us.
0:59:44 I feel like we run as if there are only like 10 of us
0:59:47 and there are a cajillion of them.
0:59:49 There are more people that agree with our point of view.
0:59:51 So we should be a little bit louder about it
0:59:55 and have better media strategy, which we do not.
0:59:58 I mean, the right crushes us in terms of that,
1:00:00 even though we quote unquote own the culture.
1:00:05 – No, this thing, yeah, I just can’t get over this.
1:00:08 Even that picture, that’s a, I don’t know if I like–
1:00:09 – I mean, it’s a lot of hair and makeup, but–
1:00:11 – I don’t know if the orange tank pantsuit
1:00:12 is what I would have gone with.
1:00:14 – Really? – That is literally,
1:00:16 I mean, you look great, but I’m not sure
1:00:18 what that color– – So then don’t bring me down, man.
1:00:19 That was a great suit.
1:00:23 That is a pastel power suit, if there ever was one.
1:00:26 – That is a Secretary Clinton suit.
1:00:28 – Well, you know how I feel about her, 3D printed doll.
1:00:32 Your profile was insanely nice, too.
1:00:35 – Oh, mine was a headpiece compared to this thing.
1:00:38 Literally, this is, if you ever run for president,
1:00:42 this will be seen as like the launch article.
1:00:46 Oh my gosh, anyways, with that, we’re gonna wrap up here.
1:00:47 That’s all for this episode.
1:00:50 If you have not read this article
1:00:51 and you wanna see what it’s like,
1:00:54 what a puff piece is like,
1:00:57 from everyone’s new favorite Democrat, Jess Tarlov.
1:01:00 Go and just type in the New York Times out, type in Tarlov,
1:01:03 that’s T-A-R-L-O-V, and you’re gonna see
1:01:05 what it’s like to be on the receiving end.
1:01:05 – And how good the suit is.
1:01:10 Also, the 27th was our one year anniversary
1:01:12 when we were on Marr together.
1:01:14 And this piece came out that day.
1:01:15 – I’m so glad you remembered.
1:01:17 – I’m so glad you remembered.
1:01:18 – My husband did, weirdly.
1:01:21 He’s like, “We were on Marr week.”
1:01:22 He didn’t say we, he does not think we.
1:01:24 He said, “We were out in LA for Marr
1:01:27 “and you met Scott a year ago, today.”
1:01:30 – There you go, it’s our one year anniversary, Jess.
1:01:31 – Yeah, it’s been amazing.
1:01:34 – Who would have thought we’d be here
1:01:37 making probably incorrect predictions about all things.
1:01:38 – Yeah, Trump’s definitely gonna win.
1:01:39 – Yeah.
1:01:40 – Yeah, I’m gonna say.
1:01:42 All right, that’s it.
1:01:43 That’s all for this episode.
1:01:44 Thank you for listening to Raging Moderates.
1:01:47 Our producers are Caroline Shagren and David Toledo.
1:01:49 Our technical directors, Drew Burroughs.
1:01:52 You can find Raging Moderates on its own feed every Tuesday.
1:01:56 That’s right, Raging Moderates has its own feed.
1:01:59 Please follow us wherever you get your podcasts.
1:02:00 Jess, have a great rest of the week.
1:02:01 – You too.
1:02:02 – Stay stable.
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1:04:09 (upbeat music)

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0:01:36 of a website or domain.
0:01:41 – Today’s number, $400,000.
0:01:44 That’s how much Al Pacino paid his landscaper per year
0:01:47 to maintain a property he didn’t live in.
0:01:51 True story, the pool boy fucked my nanny.
0:01:53 So I ended up catching a cold.
0:01:55 True story, Ed.
0:01:57 My pool boy fucked my nanny.
0:02:00 So I caught the cold my wife had.
0:02:12 – Take some minute, but it’s fine.
0:02:13 – I think the funniest,
0:02:17 I think the funniest was the initial botch delivery.
0:02:19 That was my favorite part of the joke.
0:02:21 – I hope that stays in the edit.
0:02:22 – That happens a lot.
0:02:24 Welcome to Property Markets.
0:02:27 Today, we’re discussing Boeing’s terrible day.
0:02:30 Lot of jokes in there about air disasters,
0:02:32 but I’m not gonna make ’em.
0:02:34 And perplexity’s fourth funding round.
0:02:36 That’s where we are.
0:02:38 Boeing workers on strike and perplexity
0:02:40 is raising a fourth round.
0:02:43 But here for, oh wait, banter, I’m sorry.
0:02:44 It says banter, Ed.
0:02:46 – Stop giving it away.
0:02:48 You can’t read the script word for word.
0:02:50 What’s going on in the life of a 20-something
0:02:51 living in Brooklyn?
0:02:53 – I’m doing very well, Scott.
0:02:54 It’s been a busy week.
0:02:55 Doing a lot of interviews.
0:02:57 I just did two first-time founders interviews,
0:02:58 which are very exciting,
0:03:00 but I’m not gonna give any of the details away.
0:03:01 – No, you don’t wanna promote it.
0:03:02 You don’t want more downloads.
0:03:04 And for us to actually make money off
0:03:07 this Joey Baggedonan’s first-time founders podcast
0:03:09 that we’re supporting is your Vanity Project.
0:03:11 Why don’t you take up DJing and charge us to do that?
0:03:12 – I already do that.
0:03:14 – What else are you doing other than
0:03:15 first-time founders interviews?
0:03:17 What’s been going on?
0:03:20 – Let’s see, I got some Halloween parties coming up,
0:03:21 but I don’t have a costume yet.
0:03:22 Got any ideas for me?
0:03:24 – I have a Deadpool costume you can have.
0:03:25 – Oh, yeah?
0:03:26 – Yeah, it’s awesome.
0:03:27 My marigine got it for me.
0:03:28 – You still have it.
0:03:29 – Cheers, if you want it.
0:03:31 – Maybe, I might take you up on that.
0:03:32 That’s a good idea.
0:03:33 What are you gonna be?
0:03:34 – I’m very excited.
0:03:35 I’m going as Richard Simmons,
0:03:37 although I’m gonna be in London,
0:03:39 and either I have Halloween and me walking around
0:03:41 in dolphin short shorts with my son,
0:03:43 so he’ll be walking 20 meters ahead of me,
0:03:44 ’cause he’ll be so horrified.
0:03:47 They’re at that age where they’re not gonna
0:03:48 be Halloween for 20 years.
0:03:49 Halloween’s awesome when you’re a kid,
0:03:51 and then it’s awesome when you’re older.
0:03:52 – Yeah, exactly.
0:03:54 I don’t like Halloween myself these days.
0:03:56 – Oh, my God.
0:03:59 How can you not love Halloween?
0:04:01 – ‘Cause it’s like, the whole thing is just like,
0:04:02 wait, what are you?
0:04:03 And then everyone has to go around
0:04:04 and explain what they are.
0:04:06 And it’s like, I don’t know.
0:04:08 It’s just like, it feels so contrived to me.
0:04:09 – Well, I go as myself,
0:04:11 and people ask me what I’m supposed to be,
0:04:14 and I say, I was supposed to be a lot of things.
0:04:16 And then I start weeping.
0:04:18 – That’s good.
0:04:20 Get to the headlines, Ed.
0:04:22 – Let’s start with our weekly review of Market Vitals.
0:04:25 (upbeat music)
0:04:31 The S&P 500 declined, the dollar gained,
0:04:33 Bitcoin was flat,
0:04:35 and the yield on 10-year treasuries increased.
0:04:36 Shifting to the headlines.
0:04:38 Sales of existing homes in the US
0:04:41 fell 3.5% from a year earlier.
0:04:43 That’s their lowest level since 2010,
0:04:46 and on track for their worst year since 1995.
0:04:49 Tesla’s net income rose 17% in the third quarter
0:04:52 from a year earlier, beating analyst expectations.
0:04:54 Elon Musk also predicted vehicle growth
0:04:56 would reach at least 20% next year,
0:04:59 and the stock rose more than 20%
0:05:00 following that earnings report.
0:05:02 McDonald’s stock fell 10%
0:05:04 after its quarter-pounders were linked
0:05:06 to an E. Coli outbreak.
0:05:10 The illness has led to 10 hospitalizations and one death.
0:05:13 And finally, Sheehan’s profit declined 70%
0:05:16 in the first half of the year to just under $400 million.
0:05:19 Revenue growth also slowed to 23%.
0:05:21 That’s nearly half of what it was a year ago.
0:05:24 The deceleration in growth could complicate
0:05:26 the company’s plans for an IPO.
0:05:27 Scott, your thoughts starting
0:05:29 with this disappointing home sales data.
0:05:30 – It’s really wild.
0:05:33 The housing crisis or the housing sales
0:05:34 has keep getting worse.
0:05:36 So I would have guessed we would have bottomed out
0:05:37 about a year ago.
0:05:40 Also, I think people are sort of just giving up on housing.
0:05:41 They don’t see it any longer.
0:05:43 It’s kind of the American dream.
0:05:45 I think it’s really too bad.
0:05:46 I think it’s a supply problem.
0:05:47 We talk about interest rates.
0:05:51 We talk about having cheap capital, go buy a house.
0:05:52 I think there’s only one way out.
0:05:55 I think we need fairly significant government subsidies
0:05:57 to kind of put the private sector into action
0:06:00 to just start building a ton of houses
0:06:03 and also pass regulations that make it increasingly
0:06:05 difficult to block housing permits.
0:06:05 What are your thoughts?
0:06:08 – It’s massively disappointing to me,
0:06:10 especially as a young person
0:06:13 who wants to buy a house someday.
0:06:16 I mean, that is a personal objective of mine.
0:06:19 So I hate to see this news.
0:06:24 Having said that, yes, home prices relative to income
0:06:26 have never been higher.
0:06:30 I mean, it is out of control, the price of homes today.
0:06:32 But if you look back at the data
0:06:35 and if you also factor in mortgage rates
0:06:37 in addition to home prices,
0:06:41 it turns out that actually housing affordability today
0:06:43 in a holistic level
0:06:46 is around where it was in the mid 1980s.
0:06:47 And that’s because back then,
0:06:49 the mortgage rates were just way higher.
0:06:53 Like a 30 year rate was around 15% back then.
0:06:54 Today it’s around 6%.
0:06:56 So when you factor all of that in
0:06:58 from an affordability perspective,
0:07:01 things actually look very similar to the 1980s.
0:07:05 And now I’m 25 and who were the 25 year olds in the 1980s?
0:07:07 It was the boomers.
0:07:08 And who ultimately benefited
0:07:11 from this rapid transformation of the housing market
0:07:13 right when they hit their income earning years.
0:07:14 It was the boomers.
0:07:17 So I look at that data
0:07:19 and there are definitely very different dynamics
0:07:20 at play here.
0:07:23 For us, it’s a price issue because of supply.
0:07:26 And back then it was a rates issue.
0:07:29 But I am hoping just based on the fact
0:07:32 that I am in a kind of similar position
0:07:33 to where boomers were at my age.
0:07:36 I’m kind of hoping that something’s gonna change.
0:07:37 I don’t know exactly what it’s gonna be.
0:07:38 I don’t know what that would look like.
0:07:42 Hopefully it just means more housing permits, more supply.
0:07:43 But I do have hope.
0:07:45 And I think the right thing to do,
0:07:47 which is what I’m doing is just scouring real estate.
0:07:49 I’m trying to get an understanding of this market.
0:07:51 Not because I’m gonna buy something right now,
0:07:54 but just so that when things do change,
0:07:56 I will be ready to get involved.
0:07:58 And I would encourage other people my age to do the same.
0:08:01 – So when I was your age, I bought my first home at 27.
0:08:03 I was a year older than you when I bought my first home.
0:08:06 I had just gotten out of the hot school of business.
0:08:08 While I decided to start my own business,
0:08:09 the offer I had from a consulting firm
0:08:12 was for a hundred grand total comp.
0:08:14 My girlfriend was making, I think about 80.
0:08:18 So we had 180 grand and we bought a house in Petro Hill
0:08:21 in San Francisco for $285,000.
0:08:26 So one and a half, 1.6 times our annual income.
0:08:30 And we brought some money from her parents
0:08:31 and we bought our first home.
0:08:32 – Did you take out a mortgage on her?
0:08:33 – Oh yeah, we had a mortgage.
0:08:35 I don’t even remember the interest rate,
0:08:38 but two or three years later, maybe four years later,
0:08:41 I peaked early at, I bought the house that is no joke
0:08:43 on Noe Guerrero in 21st,
0:08:45 that is next door to where Mark Zuckerberg lives.
0:08:48 And I paid $760,000 for it.
0:08:51 And a few years later, I sold it for 920
0:08:53 and I thought it was a fucking real estate genius.
0:08:54 I thought, oh my God.
0:08:58 Pretty sure like his security lives in that house.
0:09:00 And I would have paid so much money
0:09:02 to just be able to sit out on my porch
0:09:03 and a wife beater and a lawn chair.
0:09:06 And when he come home like, how many teens did press?
0:09:07 How many teens are self-cutting today?
0:09:09 You fucking bitch.
0:09:11 I just would have given anything.
0:09:14 – I’m sure people are already doing that.
0:09:17 – Anyway, so, but where I was headed with this is,
0:09:22 if you think I was making 100 grand story of privilege
0:09:23 out of an elite business school,
0:09:26 2.8 times got you a house in San Francisco.
0:09:28 Now I bet the average compensation out of the high school,
0:09:33 again, these are good problems is about 200 or 225.
0:09:34 The average home I think in the Bay Area
0:09:36 or San Francisco now is 2.1 million.
0:09:41 So it’s gone from 2.8 times the salary of an MBA grad
0:09:42 to 10 times.
0:09:43 – Fucking insane.
0:09:45 – This needs federal action.
0:09:48 This needs a fairly serious subsidy or tax credit
0:09:52 for developers who figure out a way to build housing.
0:09:53 And then some sort of,
0:09:55 I don’t know if you have to go state by state,
0:09:58 especially there’s some mayors in, for example, Minneapolis
0:10:01 and in Austin who’ve done a good job of figuring out a way
0:10:02 to build more housing.
0:10:04 But I had a really interesting conversation
0:10:07 with Jessica Tarloff who’s my co-host
0:10:09 on another booming podcast.
0:10:10 I don’t know if you’ve met her.
0:10:11 – I don’t know.
0:10:12 Who is she?
0:10:15 – She said her and her husband like really good livings
0:10:16 and they’ve decided they live in Manhattan.
0:10:18 They decided to rent, not to buy.
0:10:20 And they could afford to buy, but they said,
0:10:22 and it was, it seemed simple, but it was sort of striking.
0:10:25 They said, our money is doing better in the market
0:10:29 than it would in a Tribeca condo.
0:10:31 And I thought that was really interesting
0:10:33 that they’ve made a conscious decision
0:10:34 to leave their money in the market
0:10:37 instead of putting all of it into a condo.
0:10:39 But I like the way you’re thinking.
0:10:40 I think, I do think at some point,
0:10:43 buying a house, understanding the market is the way to go.
0:10:45 – Certainly a case by case basis.
0:10:47 I think that as Ramit Sethi told us,
0:10:51 the cult of home buying is kind of a trap.
0:10:52 Sometimes renting is the right move.
0:10:54 Let’s move on to these Tesla earnings.
0:10:56 Tesla had a good quarter actually.
0:10:58 Revenue was up 8%.
0:11:02 Their energy and storage business was up 52%.
0:11:05 And margin growth was really good.
0:11:07 Operating expenses are down 6%
0:11:09 after they cut a 10th of the workforce.
0:11:12 So this is sort of what we’ve been looking for.
0:11:15 This isn’t the BS that we saw at the WeRobot event
0:11:16 at the Warner Brothers Studio.
0:11:20 This is real meaningful progress, it’s real data.
0:11:22 This is just about the performance
0:11:23 of the fundamental business.
0:11:26 And the fundamental business is doing pretty well.
0:11:28 Does it mean that it needs to,
0:11:31 does it warrant a 20% jump in the stock price?
0:11:32 I don’t think so.
0:11:34 I think it certainly warrants a jump.
0:11:37 The one thing I would flag though is the valuation still.
0:11:42 You know, it’s trading around 30% down
0:11:44 from its peak in 2021.
0:11:49 But it’s still trading at 79 times forward earnings,
0:11:52 which is roughly double the multiple of,
0:11:54 wait for it, Nvidia.
0:11:58 So if you wanted to value Tesla today on par with Nvidia,
0:12:00 the stock would need to come down 48%.
0:12:04 So good quarter, but Tesla is still way, way overpriced.
0:12:08 – The only thing I saw in this as I look through
0:12:12 the earnings was that it was revenue increasing 8%,
0:12:12 isn’t that big a deal?
0:12:16 I mean, that’s good for a car company.
0:12:18 But the story here, and they did a good job laying it out
0:12:22 on the earnings call was that it’s not the revenue increase,
0:12:24 it’s the revenue mix.
0:12:26 And that is the sale of higher margin products.
0:12:29 So storage batteries, which are used by utilities,
0:12:32 businesses and homeowners increase 52%.
0:12:36 And revenues from services, including charging jump 29%.
0:12:39 And those are higher margin offerings in their cars.
0:12:42 And they’ve also deployed more battery storage products
0:12:43 this year than it did in all of 2023.
0:12:45 So for all the Tesla bulls who say,
0:12:46 it’s not a car company, it’s an energy company,
0:12:47 it’s a services company.
0:12:51 Now they can legitimately say, see, I told you.
0:12:53 – Yeah, but it’s not an AI company.
0:12:54 And that’s my issue.
0:12:55 They’re not selling your robots.
0:13:00 – But to be fair, this more robust revenue mix
0:13:02 or growth in higher margin product categories
0:13:06 resulted in their gross margins increasing 200 basis points
0:13:09 and their net income increasing 17%.
0:13:13 And I think that’s an important lesson for entrepreneurs.
0:13:17 And that is when I had my firm L2,
0:13:20 I would say, okay, we can get,
0:13:24 we’d get paid if I come spoke or a one day symposium
0:13:26 or the people constantly want us to a consulting gig.
0:13:28 And rather than getting a half a million
0:13:29 to our consulting gig,
0:13:33 we’d much rather get a $200,000 annual recurring membership
0:13:35 because all revenues are created equally.
0:13:38 And revenue they get from their automobiles
0:13:39 is gonna have a much lower multiple on it
0:13:41 than revenue they get from services or charging
0:13:44 because they have higher margins, more sustainable.
0:13:45 I think the Tesla product lineup,
0:13:47 the quite frankly, is a little bit tired.
0:13:50 So this is about revenue mix, not about revenue growth.
0:13:51 – Should we talk about McDonald’s
0:13:55 and this E. Coli outbreak and the initial reactions?
0:13:56 – See, here’s the thing about what you wanna do
0:13:59 if you’re McDonald’s or in the fast food business.
0:14:01 You can kill hundreds of thousands of people
0:14:04 as long as you kill them slowly.
0:14:07 But if you kill a bunch in one day,
0:14:08 your stock gets taken down.
0:14:10 Like what, no, seriously what,
0:14:12 how many people do you think are gonna have colon cancer
0:14:17 this year because of a lifetime of McDonald’s?
0:14:20 I mean, it’s just if you price McDonald’s
0:14:22 to its externalities,
0:14:24 specifically if you price beef to what it costs
0:14:26 because of water, subsidized water,
0:14:28 and the health externality,
0:14:30 you know, a Big Mac would be 50 bucks.
0:14:33 So I don’t, I don’t especially like this firm.
0:14:35 I would just love to see an article
0:14:36 on how many people died today
0:14:40 because of long-term illness from this type of food.
0:14:42 Anyway, it’s easy for me to say.
0:14:44 – Yeah, I mean, the investor reaction,
0:14:47 I think people were pretty freaked out by this.
0:14:49 But I think the thing to remember about these outbreaks
0:14:51 is that in the food industry,
0:14:53 this actually happens all the time.
0:14:56 It happened to Wendy’s a couple of years ago
0:14:58 and it was E. Coli.
0:15:01 It’s happened to Taco Bell, Jack in the Box,
0:15:02 Tim Hortons, on and on.
0:15:04 This is sort of a rite of passage
0:15:05 in the fast food industry.
0:15:08 You have an outbreak, then you announce a recall
0:15:10 and then you kind of, you move on and life goes on.
0:15:14 What you don’t want is what happened to Chipotle
0:15:19 back in 2015, which is where there was an E. Coli outbreak.
0:15:23 20 people were hospitalized and zero people died,
0:15:28 but it just exploded into this giant international news story.
0:15:30 The media totally ran away with it.
0:15:31 It was really exciting.
0:15:33 Everyone was talking about it.
0:15:34 And as a result,
0:15:37 despite the fact that it was historically pretty standard,
0:15:41 sales dropped 20%, profits fell 50%
0:15:42 and the stock was cut in half.
0:15:44 And it was like the worst thing to happen ever.
0:15:47 So McDonald’s needs that to not happen.
0:15:49 My view, it won’t happen.
0:15:50 Why?
0:15:52 Because we’ve got a presidential election
0:15:52 coming up in two weeks.
0:15:55 I just don’t think there is enough steam in the media
0:15:58 to turn this into something bigger than it is.
0:16:01 My prediction is that, you know, come next week,
0:16:02 it won’t be an issue.
0:16:04 We’re focused on other things.
0:16:06 Chipotle, after it had that 50% cut,
0:16:09 it’s up six folds since then.
0:16:10 And this is pulse marketing,
0:16:13 but my first thought when I read about McDonald’s was like,
0:16:16 oh, it’s time for a colonoscopy.
0:16:19 And also I quite enjoyed that Michael Jackson drug.
0:16:21 Oh my God, that shit is money.
0:16:23 That shit is money.
0:16:25 God, that’s a good sleep.
0:16:26 That’s a good sleep.
0:16:28 And I love my jokes in there.
0:16:31 I’m like, well, you stroke my hair as you’re probing my hair.
0:16:34 It’s just, I’m full of so many jokes.
0:16:36 And they’re like, we’ve heard them all, any new ones?
0:16:38 Exactly, it’s like hosting this podcast.
0:16:39 Yeah.
0:16:42 But my first thought, I remember,
0:16:45 when I heard about the Chipotle E. coli outbreak,
0:16:47 you know what my first thought was?
0:16:49 Jesus, I’d like some Chipotle.
0:16:53 I think that Chipotle product is so outstanding.
0:16:55 I think it is just an amazing,
0:16:58 and actually it’s not, I wouldn’t call it health food,
0:17:01 but I will go as far to say it’s actually fairly healthy.
0:17:04 And it’s got the right fats, it’s fairly fresh.
0:17:07 And the most, I have such fondness or affection
0:17:11 for Chipotle because the first swag I ever received
0:17:13 when we started this Joey Baganona’s podcast,
0:17:16 about 300 episodes ago,
0:17:18 I just constantly talk about Chipotle.
0:17:19 And you know what they sent me?
0:17:23 They sent me a lifetime free card of Chipotle.
0:17:25 Like, and I had this card and I knew I was gonna get it.
0:17:29 So my kids are in Manhattan and we roll into Chipotle
0:17:31 and they order something and I pull out the card
0:17:32 and I’m just very slick about it.
0:17:33 My youngest one goes, what is that?
0:17:35 And I’m like, oh, it’s a Chipotle card.
0:17:36 So what do you get with it?
0:17:37 I’m like, well, I never have to pay for Chipotle.
0:17:38 Holy shit.
0:17:41 He has never been as impressed with me.
0:17:43 He just couldn’t believe it.
0:17:44 He wanted to see the card.
0:17:46 I want to say, what does it look like?
0:17:47 Yeah, it’s okay.
0:17:48 It looks like a, I don’t know.
0:17:50 It’s just a little, it looks like a credit card.
0:17:53 And it says Chipotle lifetime free or whatever.
0:17:56 I don’t use it because I’m lazy and I can’t find the card.
0:17:58 And I don’t know, I can buy my Chipotle.
0:18:00 But anyways, let’s talk about Shin.
0:18:01 Yeah, let’s talk about it.
0:18:03 Your reactions, the growth is slowing.
0:18:04 You’re an investor, right?
0:18:05 I am an investor.
0:18:07 It’s one of my biggest investments.
0:18:11 So, okay, let’s just be real here.
0:18:14 And granted, I have a vested interest in success as a company.
0:18:17 The bad news is its growth slowed to 23%.
0:18:22 The good news is it’s growing 23% at Amazon retail
0:18:26 was up 9%, Zara was up 7%, H&M was up 1%.
0:18:30 So, Shin is growing two and a half times as fast as Amazon.
0:18:32 I mean, I guess it’s all how you frame this.
0:18:34 When I got, when I heard about this,
0:18:36 I actually felt pretty good about my investment.
0:18:40 If a company that’s doing $36 billion in sales
0:18:42 is still growing 20, can you name any company
0:18:46 over 10 or 20 billion growing more than 20% a year
0:18:48 that isn’t valued at a trillion dollars?
0:18:50 I was gonna say NVIDIA and so you said that.
0:18:54 Right, I mean, there are firms that big growing that fast,
0:18:56 but they’re all worth more than a trillion dollars.
0:18:59 So, I don’t know, I like my prospects here, Ed.
0:19:00 I like my prospects.
0:19:01 What do you think?
0:19:02 What do I have this wrong?
0:19:03 – I don’t think you have anything wrong
0:19:04 on the financials.
0:19:05 I completely agree with you.
0:19:07 I think this business is still crushing it.
0:19:11 Where I continue to disagree with you,
0:19:13 and I don’t wanna rain on your parade
0:19:15 or be the woke police,
0:19:17 is the moral viability of this company.
0:19:20 – The moral viability will smell you,
0:19:23 you little indulgent virtue signaling millennial,
0:19:25 Brooklyn sandaled eyes.
0:19:29 – Don’t speak too soon ’cause wait ’til I drop this on you.
0:19:31 So, I’ve told you that I think
0:19:36 that there are valid concerns about child labor at Sheehan.
0:19:40 And it turns out, as of a couple of months ago,
0:19:42 they released a report.
0:19:44 They have been using child labor.
0:19:48 They found two cases of child labor in their supply chain.
0:19:50 And to be fair to them, they reported it
0:19:51 and they disclosed it
0:19:53 and they cut the ties with those suppliers.
0:19:55 But the fact remains, it’s like, wow,
0:19:57 how did they sell dresses for $10?
0:19:59 Well, the answer is that they’ve spent
0:20:02 the majority of their time employing children to do it.
0:20:05 – Okay, I’m going to, I spent some time looking at this.
0:20:08 The first was that they were using forced labor
0:20:08 for their cotton.
0:20:10 And they’ve actually gotten out of all cotton,
0:20:12 I believe all cotton production in China.
0:20:15 And they had a company that looks at clothes
0:20:16 and tries to estimate the amount of cotton
0:20:18 coming from a forced labor region.
0:20:20 And they actually had a lower count
0:20:22 than many of the other fast fashion guys.
0:20:24 So the management I’m known,
0:20:25 or at least the interaction I’ve had with them
0:20:29 is they are committed to, for economic reasons,
0:20:32 being the best or one of the better players
0:20:35 in this space around this stuff.
0:20:38 And I think when they found that out,
0:20:40 they disclosed it, which is unusual.
0:20:41 It wasn’t like Mark Zuckerberg going in front
0:20:42 of Congress and lying and saying,
0:20:44 I’ve heard actually social media is good
0:20:46 for the mental health of teens.
0:20:49 They said, we found it out, we’re disclosing it,
0:20:51 and we’re severing ties with these guys.
0:20:53 I would like to see a similar audit
0:20:56 across all the other fast fashion guys
0:20:58 and find out, yeah, where is their cotton
0:20:59 and where is their shipping made?
0:21:04 I agree that when you’re buying a t-shirt that’s three bucks,
0:21:06 it’s unlikely the supply chain is aspirational.
0:21:09 It’s just, it’s unlikely that the employees
0:21:11 are getting pet bereavement leave
0:21:13 and mental health counseling.
0:21:16 But I don’t, I believe management when they say,
0:21:18 we’re gonna try for economic reasons
0:21:20 to start our hat white here.
0:21:23 So I don’t, you know, if I sound defensive, I am.
0:21:27 But Donald Tang, the chairman has said to me straight up,
0:21:28 he’s looking me in the eye and said,
0:21:31 we’re gonna be the role model in,
0:21:33 they don’t call fast fashion an on-demand fashion
0:21:37 around a sustainable, progressive, ethical supply chain.
0:21:40 But they should be held accountable like anybody else.
0:21:41 – As you say, countless companies
0:21:43 have done countless bad things.
0:21:47 Apple has had supply chain and child labor issues as well.
0:21:50 You know, so has Nike.
0:21:51 I think the reality is, you know,
0:21:55 I just look at the company, I associate it with that.
0:21:56 It turns out it’s true.
0:21:58 It may be true of other companies,
0:22:01 but the reality is that for me at least,
0:22:03 I still hear the word Xi’en
0:22:06 and my initial gut reaction is not a huge fan.
0:22:09 And I would bet that a lot of people feel similarly.
0:22:11 And I think that’s why you’re seeing
0:22:13 some of these issues they’re having
0:22:15 with getting out to the public markets.
0:22:17 It’s also because they’re from China,
0:22:20 or at least the majority of the supply chain is in China,
0:22:22 but that’s just the gut reaction.
0:22:27 And so, yeah, I think it’s on them to address that.
0:22:29 And I think that starts with doing a very,
0:22:31 very thorough audit of their supply chains,
0:22:32 which they appear to be doing.
0:22:35 And maybe over time, they’ll get me on their side.
0:22:37 – Actually, Edward, you buy your clothes.
0:22:39 Where do I get the kind of like skateboarder
0:22:41 who things didn’t work out for a look?
0:22:45 – That’s good, that’s good.
0:22:48 I’ve been on a pretty big J-Crew kick recently.
0:22:49 – J-Crew?
0:22:52 So you’re just leaning into that whole Caucasian thing?
0:22:54 (laughing)
0:22:57 J-Crew, wow, I did not expect that.
0:22:59 – J-Crew, send me a lifetime card, please.
0:23:00 – Here you go.
0:23:02 (upbeat music)
0:23:03 – We’ll be right back.
0:23:06 (upbeat music)
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0:24:48 believe I’ve gotten more out of alcohol
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0:24:51 Anyways, took this thing.
0:24:53 I had two, maybe three drinks
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0:26:31 – We’re back with Profg Markets.
0:26:33 Boeing workers rejected a contract proposal
0:26:36 that included a 35% raise over four years.
0:26:38 As we discussed previously,
0:26:41 the workers are demanding a 40% pay increase.
0:26:43 That vote extended their strike
0:26:45 and made Boeing’s bad day worse,
0:26:46 because earlier that morning,
0:26:50 Boeing reported a quarterly loss of $6 billion,
0:26:52 its worst loss since 2020.
0:26:54 The company’s CFO also said it will continue
0:26:57 to burn cash into 2025.
0:26:59 The stock dropped 4% following those earnings
0:27:02 and went even lower after the union vote.
0:27:05 So Scott, let’s start with the strike.
0:27:08 Nearly two thirds of the workers voted
0:27:10 against this proposed contract.
0:27:12 What are your reactions to that result?
0:27:13 – Look, good for them.
0:27:14 They know they have power.
0:27:17 It seems like the bid ask here are not that far apart
0:27:19 and Boeing has incentive to solve this,
0:27:23 whereas Netflix had disincentive to solve the strike.
0:27:26 I wouldn’t be surprised if this was the kitchen sink order
0:27:28 where they just threw everything into it.
0:27:31 But it’s great, even if you’re the number two in a duopoly,
0:27:34 it’s great to be the number two in a duopoly.
0:27:38 The firm has a $500 billion backlog
0:27:40 of over 5,400 commercial clients.
0:27:44 I mean, that’s just a half a trillion dollar backlog.
0:27:46 And also the strike,
0:27:48 it may end up medium and long-term being a good thing
0:27:51 ’cause it gave the CEO Cloud Cover,
0:27:53 the CEO Kelly Ordberg Cloud Cover
0:27:55 to lay off 17,000 workers.
0:27:57 He’s like, okay, fine, you’re not happy.
0:27:59 We gotta cut costs.
0:28:01 They haven’t reported a full year profit since 2018.
0:28:03 They need to cut costs.
0:28:06 They need to get labor relations back on track.
0:28:07 Talk about a change in fortunes.
0:28:11 Boeing has declined 57% in the last six years
0:28:14 and Airbus has increased 45%.
0:28:17 I would argue that this IP, this brand,
0:28:18 it’s customer relationships.
0:28:19 And the fact there’s only two people
0:28:22 really producing planes at this scale.
0:28:25 They’re gonna be fine.
0:28:28 And I would bet this is actually a pretty good buy right now.
0:28:29 What are your thoughts?
0:28:31 – I don’t think I agree that they’re fine,
0:28:35 but just on the proposal that they are disagreeing on.
0:28:40 So the main thing or the one sticking point
0:28:46 is the difference between a traditional pension plan
0:28:48 and an individual retirement plan.
0:28:51 So what the Boeing workers really want,
0:28:53 they want the 40% pay increase,
0:28:54 but what is becoming clear,
0:28:57 because they said no to a 35% increase,
0:28:59 is that what they really want
0:29:02 is the restoration of this defined benefit plan,
0:29:04 this traditional pension plan
0:29:07 that Boeing removed back in 2014.
0:29:09 And this is kind of an interesting difference.
0:29:10 So like what is the difference
0:29:12 between a traditional pension plan
0:29:17 and individual retirement plan, like a 401k?
0:29:20 Well, unlike the 401k,
0:29:23 where the employer invests in your retirement account
0:29:25 during your time at the company,
0:29:28 the traditional pension basically just pays you
0:29:30 a predetermined amount of cash
0:29:34 that begins when you retire and ends when you die.
0:29:36 So it’s basically like a mini salary for life.
0:29:39 And this used to be the most common form
0:29:42 of retirement account in America.
0:29:45 Back in the 80s, around 40% of US retirement plans
0:29:47 were pension plans.
0:29:49 Today though, they’re very, very rare,
0:29:51 only 8% are traditional.
0:29:54 Meanwhile, the most common are the individual retirement
0:29:56 accounts, the 401k, that makes up 50%.
0:29:57 That’s what I have.
0:30:01 Most people I would imagine who are listening to this podcast,
0:30:03 if they’re offered a retirement plan
0:30:05 through their employer, it’s a 401k.
0:30:07 So I find it very interesting
0:30:10 that this is sort of the main problem.
0:30:13 It’s not actually about the amount of money
0:30:14 they’re receiving necessarily.
0:30:18 It’s really about how they are receiving it.
0:30:21 They want a monthly paycheck once they’ve retired
0:30:23 versus Boeing investing in their accounts now.
0:30:26 And Boeing has said, this is unacceptable.
0:30:28 We cannot do it.
0:30:31 So I’d love to get your view as an employer
0:30:34 who has set up retirement plans in the past.
0:30:37 Why is this such an issue for the workers?
0:30:40 And also why is it such an issue for Boeing?
0:30:42 Why doesn’t Boeing just say yes?
0:30:43 – So the workers are being smart.
0:30:46 They’re realizing that time goes fast
0:30:48 and at some point they’re gonna be retired
0:30:49 and they want a paycheck.
0:30:51 I would imagine the reason they’re pushing back
0:30:54 is the last thing you want is a liability
0:30:59 against an unproductive asset and that is a retired person.
0:31:03 So setting up a pension fund that might have obligations.
0:31:05 There are some companies that are technically bankrupt
0:31:08 if you calculate in their pension obligations.
0:31:12 What we do for you, Ed, is I say, I want you to save money.
0:31:14 So I don’t even know what we–
0:31:18 – Yeah, defined contribution and it’s a 5% match.
0:31:22 So if I invest 5% of my salary,
0:31:24 you match it and also invest 5%.
0:31:26 – I like to think of it as 100% match, bitch,
0:31:30 ’cause if you put 5% in, I’m doubling it to 10%.
0:31:34 But if at your age, we’re trying to eat our own cooking here.
0:31:37 At your age, if you get 5% of your salary
0:31:41 and you put it away, it goes into this thing, I match it.
0:31:42 So that’s 10%.
0:31:45 At the age of 26, if you can just do that
0:31:46 for the rest of your life,
0:31:48 regardless of whether or not this pod works or not,
0:31:50 as long as you can hold on to your job,
0:31:51 you’re gonna be fine.
0:31:53 And that’s powerful.
0:31:55 And I think all employers should encourage that.
0:31:58 I do believe in being a little bit paternalistic.
0:32:02 But other pensions are work here for 20 or 30 years
0:32:03 and we’re gonna give you,
0:32:06 this is a big problem in government or local governments.
0:32:09 And that is they have these pension plans with cops.
0:32:11 And they say, if you work 20 years,
0:32:13 you then get a pension the rest of your life.
0:32:14 You get payment.
0:32:18 And unfortunately, the cops who are smart will game it.
0:32:20 And what they say is we’re gonna give you 60%
0:32:24 of your salary the last two years of your tenure.
0:32:27 So what they do is they wink at their staffing sergeant
0:32:29 and they work 80 hours a week, their last two years,
0:32:31 where they get time and a half
0:32:34 and they end up making $220,000 the last two years
0:32:36 and they end up with $120,000 obligation
0:32:38 for the rest of this cop’s life.
0:32:41 And you end up with 13% incremental tax rates
0:32:43 in New York state because we have all of this
0:32:47 incredibly onerous pension liabilities.
0:32:50 So what I think, I’m all for,
0:32:53 I’m all for companies taking current profits
0:32:56 and matching, you know, I like the fact
0:32:59 that you show some discipline and I gross it up.
0:33:00 I like that.
0:33:03 And then if you leave, it’s portable, it goes with you.
0:33:05 And at 59 and a half or 65,
0:33:08 hopefully you have economic security.
0:33:10 What companies want to avoid and they can’t afford
0:33:13 and has kind of created some zombie companies
0:33:14 is this notion that if you work it
0:33:15 for a certain amount of time,
0:33:16 we’re just gonna keep paying you
0:33:18 a certain amount of your salary.
0:33:19 And they don’t fund it.
0:33:20 They don’t figure out a way.
0:33:22 They just assume the good times are gonna keep going
0:33:23 and that they’ll be able to pay it.
0:33:25 And then you end up with a company
0:33:28 who’s biggest or one of its biggest expense lines
0:33:30 is revenue going out to employees
0:33:32 who are not working, who are unproductive.
0:33:35 So this is a big issue.
0:33:36 What this clearly shows though,
0:33:38 is that this union is smart and thinking about,
0:33:42 okay, how do we set our members up
0:33:45 for long-term financial health?
0:33:47 99% of people, the lesson years are following.
0:33:48 99% of people will spend everything
0:33:50 that comes into their hands.
0:33:51 I’m kind of that way.
0:33:53 So what I do is as soon as I get money,
0:33:55 I start, I put it away.
0:33:57 I try and get it away from me where I can’t touch it.
0:33:59 That’s the way to go.
0:34:00 You never see it.
0:34:01 It doesn’t go into your hands.
0:34:05 You don’t think, oh, I’m going to Coachella with the guys.
0:34:07 You’re like, I don’t have the money.
0:34:10 And the money just, you never have it in your hands.
0:34:11 When I’m talking to young people
0:34:13 and they’re asking for advice on compensation,
0:34:16 my attitude is ask for more options.
0:34:18 Ask for more match.
0:34:20 Ask for the shit that’s going to build wealth,
0:34:22 not that’s going to get you a bigger flat screen
0:34:22 or a bigger apartment.
0:34:23 – Yeah, exactly.
0:34:26 It’s interesting that it does feel
0:34:30 like these pension plans are very outdated
0:34:34 in terms of just the concept of you’ve worked here
0:34:38 for 30 years and therefore you’re set for life.
0:34:41 You are a lifetime Boeing employee in a way.
0:34:43 And it does feel sort of outdated
0:34:45 because it’s just people aren’t working
0:34:48 their entire lives at one company anymore.
0:34:50 People are switching companies.
0:34:54 The idea of a company giving you sort of the stamp
0:34:56 of approval and then you’re on their paycheck
0:34:59 for the rest of your life to me just feels outdated,
0:35:02 which I think is also kind of an argument
0:35:03 in favor of Boeing.
0:35:05 But I do understand their points
0:35:07 and I do understand that these workers
0:35:08 have really gotten screwed.
0:35:11 Their compensation has only increased four percent
0:35:12 over the past eight years.
0:35:14 I mean, it is crazy.
0:35:16 They deserve something legitimate,
0:35:20 but I don’t know if a traditional defined benefit pension
0:35:21 is the way to go about it.
0:35:23 – It does feel very Angie Dickinson,
0:35:26 Johnny Carson, it does feel a little bit from an age gone by.
0:35:28 The broader meta learning here though
0:35:32 is that you have to try and fight your instinct
0:35:34 or supplement your instincts.
0:35:36 And it’s the following.
0:35:38 At your age, you just can’t imagine
0:35:40 you’re ever gonna be old
0:35:43 because for the majority of our species existence
0:35:46 on this planet, you haven’t lived past the age of 35.
0:35:51 So you literally, your brain cannot realistically imagine
0:35:54 you’re going to be my age.
0:35:56 And the other thing you can’t imagine
0:35:58 is how fast it’s gonna go.
0:36:01 And you wanna A, try and fight that instinct
0:36:04 and leverage that instinct or leverage the reality.
0:36:07 And that is if you continue to do that 5%
0:36:09 and then maybe you start making real money
0:36:12 and you go up to 10 or 20%, before you know it.
0:36:13 I mean, I’m not exaggerating.
0:36:15 I look at you and I think, oh, I look like Ed.
0:36:18 I look like a young, fairly awkward guy, but I look young.
0:36:24 I have this lame J. Crew shit, I relate to you.
0:36:25 And then I look in the mirror
0:36:28 and I look like a fish that swam too close to a reactor.
0:36:31 I look like I suffer from radiation sickness.
0:36:35 True story, people can’t imagine.
0:36:37 People basically, because I’m living very long,
0:36:42 people’s image of themselves stops evolving at 39 supposedly.
0:36:44 In other words- – 39.
0:36:45 – Yeah, you see yourself and you’re like,
0:36:47 oh, I’m getting older, I’m getting older, I’m 39.
0:36:51 And then every time you look in a mirror from the age of 39,
0:36:54 you’re like, Jesus fucking Christ, what is going on here?
0:36:55 – So interesting.
0:36:57 – You can’t, because here’s the thing,
0:36:59 you’re not supposed to be here.
0:37:03 All 7,000 of your ancestors were dead.
0:37:05 They never got to see how ugly you got.
0:37:07 – They weren’t getting colonoscopies every two months.
0:37:09 – They didn’t need Botox ’cause they were dead.
0:37:12 They never had wrinkles in their forehead.
0:37:14 Do you realize most people your age,
0:37:16 you’re gonna live to be 100.
0:37:18 So, and assuming you’re probably gonna work
0:37:21 till 70 or 75 if not later than that,
0:37:23 but that means you got 50 years.
0:37:27 And 50 years, I mean, just do the math.
0:37:29 I know we joke a lot, you make good money.
0:37:31 You make really good money for someone your age.
0:37:34 And well, just stop, you just make good money.
0:37:36 If you saved, if you managed to figure out a way
0:37:38 through matching and other things
0:37:39 to save 10% of your income,
0:37:43 and say you just grew your income from here 8% a year,
0:37:44 and you’re very talented,
0:37:45 you’re gonna grow it faster than that.
0:37:48 But say it just grew 8% a year.
0:37:52 At 10%, if the market goes up seven or 8%,
0:37:54 I would bet you’re gonna be worth $10 to $20 million
0:37:55 by the time you’re my age.
0:37:57 And that’s without an enormous win.
0:37:58 And that’s the problem.
0:38:00 Young people are always banking on the enormous win.
0:38:01 That’s what I did.
0:38:02 I’m like, I don’t need to save money.
0:38:04 I’m a baller, look at, you know,
0:38:06 and I’m gonna sell companies or I’m gonna do this.
0:38:08 So I was spent what I had.
0:38:10 And that’s just really stupid
0:38:14 because inevitably the market has a shock.
0:38:17 And, you know, you can end up like where I was
0:38:19 in your early 40s when a kid comes marching
0:38:21 out of your girlfriend and you don’t have much money.
0:38:24 And it’s very upsetting or very scary even.
0:38:27 So it seems like based on what you’re saying,
0:38:28 and I think I would probably agree with this,
0:38:33 the solution here is take the contribution plan
0:38:35 versus the traditional benefit plan,
0:38:39 but make them up it, get a really good deal,
0:38:41 get a really good contribution match.
0:38:43 And I feel like that’s the way to do it.
0:38:45 And I would bet that Boeing would be more amenable
0:38:49 to that agreement versus just doing an entire
0:38:52 wholesale turnaround and scrapping the contribution plan
0:38:54 and going back to the traditional pension.
0:38:56 I just don’t think there is a place
0:38:59 for the traditional pension plan in 2024 anymore.
0:39:00 – I absolutely agree.
0:39:01 I agree.
0:39:03 – Stay with us.
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0:40:13 – With SmartWater’s pure crisp taste,
0:40:15 there’s nothing to overthink.
0:40:19 So while you may be spiraling over double texting your crush,
0:40:20 whether your skincare routine is working
0:40:23 because you look the same or is doing nothing
0:40:25 because you look the same
0:40:27 and whatever the heck red light therapy is.
0:40:30 This is definitely not bad.
0:40:33 Don’t overthink how you hydrate.
0:40:35 Life’s full of choices.
0:40:37 SmartWater is a simple one.
0:40:43 – This episode is brought to you by Melissa and Doug.
0:40:46 Wooden puzzles and building toys for problem solving
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0:41:11 – We’re back with Prodigy Markets.
0:41:13 Perplexity AI is in talks
0:41:16 for its fourth fundraising round of the year,
0:41:17 aiming to more than double its valuation
0:41:19 to $8 billion.
0:41:21 The AI search engine and chatbot
0:41:24 is seeking to raise $500 million in this round.
0:41:26 That’s roughly what the company was worth
0:41:28 just nine months ago.
0:41:30 So Scott, Perplexity is clearly following
0:41:32 open AI’s lead here.
0:41:34 What do you make of this funding round?
0:41:36 – I think Perplexity has done a great job
0:41:39 of creating a brand positioning that is really clean.
0:41:42 And that is, I think of it as the AI search engine.
0:41:46 Whereas I think of chat GPT and Claude as AI.
0:41:48 I think of them as their own unique different category.
0:41:52 Whereas I think of Perplexity as a true threat to Google.
0:41:55 To me, this feels like at eight billion.
0:41:58 I don’t know, it kind of feels like a deal to me here.
0:42:01 And they have annual revenue of 50 million.
0:42:02 Well, maybe it’s not cheap.
0:42:04 That’s 160 times revenue.
0:42:07 Both open AI and Anthropa traded around 40 times revenues.
0:42:10 So this one’s trading at four times in a multiple revenue.
0:42:13 But I don’t, I just like the positioning here.
0:42:15 It’s much smaller than chat GPT.
0:42:19 Perplexity has about 15 million monthly active users.
0:42:22 Roughly the same as Anthropa’s Claude,
0:42:24 which I think just raised money at 30 or 40.
0:42:27 Google’s Gemini has over 270 million active users.
0:42:29 So what is that about 18 times more?
0:42:33 And chat GPT has over 200 million weekly active users.
0:42:34 I’d like to invest in this company.
0:42:36 Would you like to invest in this company?
0:42:36 – I wouldn’t.
0:42:37 – You would not?
0:42:38 – No, I wouldn’t.
0:42:43 I mean, let’s just talk about what Perplexity actually is.
0:42:44 I think you sort of nailed it.
0:42:48 It’s kind of like the AI search engine.
0:42:51 And so what I find interesting about that
0:42:55 is that we say that it’s a competitor to chat GPT.
0:42:57 We say that it’s a competitor to Claude.
0:43:00 But actually, when you really think about it,
0:43:03 I mean, people are using chat GPT
0:43:06 for sort of more generative creative projects.
0:43:09 They’re having it write poems and, you know,
0:43:11 do this in the voice of Scott Galloway.
0:43:13 People are doing similar things with Claude.
0:43:17 The main thing that Perplexity offers is a search engine.
0:43:19 And so who are they competing with?
0:43:21 They’re really competing with Google.
0:43:22 That’s sort of the main competitor.
0:43:27 And right now, Google is far and away the best search product.
0:43:32 I mean, there is basically no question about that.
0:43:35 And they also have this massive,
0:43:38 massive pool of capital that they can tap into.
0:43:41 And so the main thing for me here is,
0:43:45 you know, why is Perplexity raising
0:43:47 for the fourth time this year?
0:43:49 And they raised around in January.
0:43:51 They raised another round three months later.
0:43:53 They raised another round in October.
0:43:54 And here they are again,
0:43:57 they want to raise $500 million
0:43:58 at an $8 billion valuation.
0:44:01 So they raised four rounds in one year.
0:44:02 And that tells me two things.
0:44:04 One, they must be growing rapidly.
0:44:06 It’s a good thing.
0:44:07 Two, more importantly,
0:44:11 they must be spending an absolute fuck ton on this business.
0:44:14 Because every time they’ve gone out,
0:44:15 they’ve raised the money,
0:44:18 they come back and they say, actually, we need more.
0:44:20 And so this to me is proof
0:44:22 of what we’ve been saying for a while.
0:44:24 And I don’t think this is a good thing for Perplexity,
0:44:28 which is that AI is becoming just a flat out arms race.
0:44:30 It’s not about who can outsmart the other.
0:44:31 It’s about who can outspend the other.
0:44:34 It’s the same thing that we saw in streaming.
0:44:37 And that’s great news for open AI.
0:44:39 They have demonstrated that they can just go out
0:44:42 and raise pretty much into infinity.
0:44:47 But for Perplexity, the fact that they’ve done four rounds,
0:44:49 I’m sure they’re sort of realizing
0:44:51 that the only way that we make it out alive here
0:44:54 is if we just keep on raising and keep on raising,
0:44:56 it’s basically grow or die.
0:45:00 And the size of these rounds we’re talking about,
0:45:03 $50 million, $100 million, $500 million.
0:45:05 Those numbers are way too small.
0:45:07 If you want to compete with open AI,
0:45:09 they just raised $6.6 billion.
0:45:12 They’re on track to spend $5 billion this year.
0:45:14 You have to think way, way bigger.
0:45:18 And so if I were an investor, I’d be very, very scared
0:45:20 because the only way you win
0:45:22 is by basically spending all of your money.
0:45:25 – You’re right, it’s an arms race.
0:45:26 I’m not surprised.
0:45:29 They don’t want, they can’t go out and raise billions
0:45:31 at a time, which is what required for compute
0:45:33 and staffing up.
0:45:35 So they’re just constantly raising money.
0:45:37 But you’re right, it’s an arms race,
0:45:38 but I would invest in this company
0:45:40 just because I think their positioning is so clean.
0:45:42 AI search is a really clean positioning
0:45:45 and they’re going after a $300 billion market.
0:45:46 – Okay, what about this?
0:45:48 If you could invest in,
0:45:50 if you have the opportunity to invest in open AI
0:45:51 or perplexity, who would you go for?
0:45:52 – Yes.
0:45:53 (laughing)
0:45:55 Have you learned anything?
0:45:58 We want to diversify.
0:45:59 I would like to invest in both.
0:46:02 By the way, Sam Altman and whoever the CEO of perplexity is,
0:46:05 I’m super easy to track down.
0:46:06 I’m not a journalist.
0:46:10 I’ve got to match Ed’s 401K, that bill’s coming up.
0:46:13 So Ed’s retirement, unless you want Ed eating cat food,
0:46:17 not funny, you need to let me into the steal.
0:46:21 You need to let the dog, let the dog’s gotta eat.
0:46:23 (laughing)
0:46:24 Let me go this way.
0:46:28 ChatGPT at $150 billion,
0:46:30 I can easily see of being worth $500 billion.
0:46:33 I can also see the cleanest AI search company
0:46:34 being worth $25 billion,
0:46:36 which is triple where it’s at right now.
0:46:37 – Yeah.
0:46:39 – So I like both of these companies.
0:46:41 I’m trying to figure out a way to get exposure
0:46:43 to the AI space other than buying Microsoft,
0:46:46 and it’s not easy, everything’s private.
0:46:49 So I don’t know, we need some exposure.
0:46:52 We need a little taste of some of this AI magic,
0:46:53 and then–
0:46:54 – Totally agree.
0:46:55 All I want is open AI,
0:46:57 and just the start that really gets me,
0:47:00 there are over 200 million users right now,
0:47:03 and only 10 million pay for it.
0:47:06 So that’s only 5%, probably less,
0:47:08 way less than 5% of the user base.
0:47:11 And a lot of people would say that’s a problem,
0:47:14 but I feel like that’s just a huge opportunity.
0:47:15 – They’re gonna get to a billion people,
0:47:16 and then they’re gonna flip on,
0:47:17 they’re gonna people–
0:47:18 – Flip the switch.
0:47:19 – Yeah, that’s exactly right.
0:47:20 They got people addicted to the format,
0:47:23 the UI, and the comfort with it,
0:47:24 and then they’ll flip the switch
0:47:26 and start monetizing the hell out of it,
0:47:28 or come up with amazing,
0:47:29 can you imagine using AI,
0:47:32 the most amazing singular ad,
0:47:34 they could run against the one search you do?
0:47:34 – Exactly.
0:47:36 – So yeah, this is, you’re right,
0:47:39 this thing is a juggernaut,
0:47:41 plus Sam Altman in his hush-tons,
0:47:44 he’s just very concerned about the world, Ed.
0:47:46 He’s worried about it,
0:47:48 he’s worried about, yes,
0:47:49 we need to work with government.
0:47:52 – Let’s take a look at the weekend.
0:47:56 We’ll see data on the personal consumption
0:47:58 expenditures index for October,
0:48:00 as well as earnings from Big Tech,
0:48:02 Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon,
0:48:04 and Apple are all reporting.
0:48:07 We’ll also see earnings from Starbucks,
0:48:09 Berkshire Hathaway, and Uber,
0:48:11 big earnings week coming up.
0:48:12 Do you have any predictions for us, Scott?
0:48:17 – My prediction is the Boeing at $155 a share today,
0:48:18 over the next year,
0:48:20 and we should time stamp it,
0:48:22 the way it’s going to outperform the market.
0:48:24 I think this is a great company with a great brand,
0:48:26 great products,
0:48:28 and it’s effectively into duopoly.
0:48:31 The global economy continues to grow.
0:48:34 A key component of the global economy is commerce.
0:48:36 Key to commerce is international flows.
0:48:39 Key to international flows is commercial jet transportation.
0:48:44 These are really difficult products to produce.
0:48:44 You just can’t,
0:48:48 you cannot spin up airplane manufacturer in even a decade.
0:48:51 It takes massive government subsidies,
0:48:53 massive engineering talent.
0:48:56 So anyways, Boeing will outperform the S&P
0:48:57 over the next 12 months.
0:49:00 – This episode was produced by Claire Miller
0:49:02 and engineered by Benjamin Spencer,
0:49:04 our associate producer is Alison Weiss,
0:49:05 Mia Silverio is our research lead,
0:49:07 Jessica Lang is our research associate,
0:49:09 Drew Burroughs is our technical director,
0:49:12 and Catherine Dillon is our executive producer.
0:49:13 Thank you for listening to Prof. G Markets
0:49:15 from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
0:49:18 Join us on Thursday for our conversation
0:49:19 with Aswath Damodaran.
0:49:22 He’s back only on Prof. G Markets.
0:49:27 ♪ Lifetimes ♪
0:49:33 ♪ You help me ♪
0:49:40 ♪ In kind reunion ♪
0:49:47 ♪ As the world turns ♪
0:49:52 ♪ And the dark lights ♪
0:49:57 ♪ Help me ♪
0:50:01 – Robinhood is introducing forecast contracts
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0:50:04 Through Robinhood,
0:50:07 you can now trade financial derivatives contracts
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0:50:19 Each contract you own will pay $1 on January 8th, 2025,
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0:50:26 Learn more about the presidential election contracts
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0:01:56 I’m Scott Galloway, and this is No Mercy, No Malice.
0:02:04 Young men should vote for Kamala Harris, The Last Swing Voters, as read by George Hahn.
0:02:15 The catastrophizing from both sides regarding the end of America if she or he wins is obnoxious
0:02:19 and recognizes neither history nor the resilience of the U.S.
0:02:23 We’ve survived much worse than her or him.
0:02:29 However, it’s clear that, as in any election, some groups will fare better or worse with their
0:02:35 guy or gal in the White House, and if you disagree with me, we’ll both be fine.
0:02:42 The group whose well-being, or lack thereof, I am increasingly focused on is young men.
0:02:49 I believe Kamala Harris and Tim Walls offer the best way forward for young men in the U.S.,
0:02:53 who’ve been left behind in a time of unprecedented prosperity.
0:02:59 This election is, or should be, a referendum on two related things,
0:03:04 women’s bodily autonomy, and the future of men in the U.S.
0:03:09 With the race likely to be decided not by a handful of battleground states,
0:03:15 but by a few battleground counties, the votes of young men could be decisive.
0:03:18 No group has fallen further behind faster.
0:03:24 Young men are more persuadable than older voters, who are more partisan.
0:03:30 According to data for progress, swing voters are more common among young people.
0:03:36 Close to half, 43 percent, of swing voters are under 45.
0:03:43 According to Circle at Tufts University, young male voters are motivated to a large degree by
0:03:49 economic issues such as inflation and job stability, issues that candidates tend to
0:03:51 shift positions on during the campaign.
0:03:58 The GOP has proven smarter and more aggressive than the Democrats in reaching out to men,
0:04:05 especially online. In recent years, young men have been trending more conservative and apathetic,
0:04:08 while young women have become more progressive and engaged.
0:04:12 The gender gap has become a gender gulf.
0:04:17 Women make up a little over half of the electorate,
0:04:21 but they turn out in larger numbers to vote than men.
0:04:28 This year, the overthrow of Roe v. Wade and numerous state ballot questions about abortion
0:04:31 are likely to bring record numbers of young women to the polls.
0:04:37 Young men, most of whom support the right to choose and gender equality,
0:04:41 are not as strongly motivated to vote on those issues.
0:04:47 Part of the problem, I believe, is that the Democratic Party has abandoned young men and
0:04:53 failed to show them what the loss of Roe means for them, their opportunities, and their choices.
0:04:58 The DNC website has a page titled “Who We Serve.”
0:05:06 Listed are 16 constituencies, including African Americans, the LGBTQ community,
0:05:14 women, veterans, and 12 other demographic groups that comprise approximately 76% of the population.
0:05:20 When you explicitly advocate for 76% of the population,
0:05:26 you’re not advocating for 76%, but discriminating against the 24%.
0:05:29 In this case, young men.
0:05:36 This visibly absent group comes into sharp relief when you extract an obvious truth
0:05:43 from the data. No group has fallen faster or further in the U.S. over the past two decades
0:05:51 than young men. That neglect shows up in polls. As the New York Times recently reported about
0:05:58 Democrats faring poorly with all men, “It increasingly seems possible that most or perhaps
0:06:05 all of that weakness is concentrated among young men. Surprisingly, Ms. Harris is faring no better
0:06:12 than Mr. Biden did among young men in the Times’ Sienna data, even as she’s made significant gains
0:06:19 among young women.” I receive a lot of emails from worried parents,
0:06:25 particularly mothers, along these lines. “I have a daughter who lives in Chicago
0:06:30 and works in PR and another daughter who’s at Penn. My son lives in our basement,
0:06:35 vapes, and plays video games.” Young American men are in a crisis of
0:06:44 under-employment and under-socialization, which is bad for all of us. Even as the costs of college
0:06:50 have soared beyond reach of many families, many of the manufacturing jobs that didn’t require a
0:06:57 college degree and were a ticket to the middle class have been off-shored. Housing is increasingly
0:07:05 unaffordable. Nearly 60% of men between the ages of 18 and 24 live with their parents and one in
0:07:14 five still live with their parents at age 30. Since 2004, deaths of despair among young men
0:07:25 have taken 400,000 lives. Think about this. More young men in America have died deaths of despair
0:07:33 in the last 20 years than were killed in World War II. Meanwhile, the whole subject of what it means
0:07:39 to be a man has become radioactive, infected by a dialogue that feels more like disdain,
0:07:45 like toxic masculinity, than a conversation meant to address the issue. Young men don’t know who
0:07:52 they’re supposed to be and lack the resources to go out into the world and find out. Many are stuck,
0:07:59 isolated, despairing, and unproductive, prone to obesity, drug addiction, and suicide,
0:08:06 susceptible to misogyny, conspiracy theories, and radicalization. They make lousy potential mates,
0:08:14 employees, and citizens. While young women have made great strides in education and earning power,
0:08:20 which is great and we should do nothing to stop that, young men seem stuck in reverse.
0:08:27 I have spent a decent amount of time reviewing the different economic policies and positions of
0:08:33 both campaigns and feel Harris’s policies would provide young men with increased opportunities
0:08:41 to realize their masculinity, specifically to provide, to protect, and to procreate.
0:08:49 These are prosperous times. America doesn’t need to be made great again,
0:08:54 as Yale management professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld recently highlighted in Time,
0:09:01 the U.S. economy under Biden-Harris is, by a number of objective measures, doing well.
0:09:11 The unemployment rate is currently about 4.1%, the lowest since 1968. Inflation is low at 2.2%.
0:09:18 GDP growth is the best in the world. The financial markets are soaring, hitting 71
0:09:24 record highs this year, and Biden has cut the deficit by one-third.
0:09:34 Writing about technology, William Gibson famously said, quote, “The future is already here.
0:09:41 It’s just not evenly distributed,” unquote. The same is true of prosperity,
0:09:48 and the algorithms that increasingly run our lives want to convince us that everything is awful.
0:09:53 In real life, the Biden administration has an economic record to be proud of,
0:10:00 and Harris should embrace and extend it. She is campaigning on expanding housing construction,
0:10:06 reducing student debt, increasing child tax credits, bringing back manufacturing jobs,
0:10:10 and helping the sandwich generation care for their aging parents.
0:10:17 The other side’s policies are inflationary, raising tariffs and cutting immigration,
0:10:26 the GOP’s other standby, tax cuts, adds to the deficit, and that debt is an enormous long-term
0:10:34 tax, particularly on young people. And that debt is an enormous long-term tax, particularly on
0:10:41 young people. Older people, like me, aren’t going to be around to pay off the deficit. Young people are.
0:10:48 Historically, being a provider was a man’s job. Though we now live in a world where physical
0:10:54 strength doesn’t carry as much weight economically, meaning women can bring home just as much bacon as
0:11:00 men. But women becoming breadwinners doesn’t mean the role is any less important for men.
0:11:08 A guy with a decent job and a strong economy is creating wealth, paying taxes, and earning social
0:11:14 capital, not to mention his own self-respect. He’s a more attractive potential husband and father.
0:11:23 As Richard Reeves says, he adds surplus value. The number one condition for the development of
0:11:32 male providers, a strong and expanding economy, is far more likely under Harris. There is near
0:11:38 universal agreement on this among economists, Nobel laureates, and investment banks that have
0:11:48 bothered to do the math. This election is about policies, but it is also about values. If you’re
0:11:55 looking for a good shorthand term for healthy masculinity circa 2024, you could do a lot worse
0:12:01 than the word “mench,” which in German simply means “human.” And in Yiddish describes, quote,
0:12:08 “a person of integrity or rectitude, a just, honest, or honorable person,” unquote.
0:12:16 The first instinct of a mensch is to protect, to sacrifice for something bigger than oneself,
0:12:23 not to pick on the vulnerable. Real men don’t start barfights, they break up barfights.
0:12:29 They don’t shitpost their country, they defend it. Harris’ running mate, Tim Walls,
0:12:33 demonstrated that instinct during his long service in the National Guard,
0:12:40 as did J.D. Vance by enlisting in the Marines. Walls also exhibited the impulse to protect
0:12:46 as a high school teacher and football coach in Moncato, Minnesota, where he was an advisor to
0:13:13 LGBTQ kids starting a gay straight alliance. The Democrats have done poorly reaching out to young
0:13:21 men. Picking an America’s dad type guy for VP, somebody with gray hair who can talk to both
0:13:28 football players and queer kids, was an important move in bridging the gap and a statement of principle.
0:13:35 A man’s default setting should be to move to protect in any situation.
0:13:42 The third foundational element of masculinity, the third leg of the stool, if you will,
0:13:51 is ensuring the species endures, which starts with sex. When I was a kid, my mom was worried
0:13:57 I’d get into too much trouble. I believe today’s parents are concerned our kids won’t find enough.
0:14:05 Peter Attia and Andrew Huberman have declared war on alcohol, where they see ill health and
0:14:11 drunkenness, where young people in drinking are concerned I see togetherness, but that’s another
0:14:19 post. My generation never gave up on sex. However, lately, under employment and screenbound young
0:14:25 men who feel rejected in an increasingly winner-take-all online dating market have thrown in the towel.
0:14:34 About 63% of young men are single and a lot of them aren’t even trying to date. Meanwhile,
0:14:40 young women find themselves in an intensifying competition for a shrinking pool of what they
0:14:48 view as acceptable mates. The viral hit was “I’m looking for a man in finance,” not “I’m looking
0:15:02 for a high school dropout who lives with his parents.” Young men need guardrails, and there are
0:15:08 few stronger than the prospect of maintaining a romantic relationship. A decent summary of the
0:15:13 key moments between me and several of my post-college girlfriends went something like this.
0:15:18 “Get your shit together or I’m going to stop having sex with you,” i.e. break up.
0:15:26 This was motivating and needed. Young men today have fewer venues where they can meet potential
0:15:33 romantic partners. With fewer of them going to college or church and more of them working remotely,
0:15:39 men have less social interaction and no ability to build social capital.
0:15:46 Less sex ultimately means less intimacy, less marriage, and fewer kids.
0:15:53 Straight young men are interested in straight young women because they want to have sex.
0:16:01 We tend to act as if there’s something wrong with that. There isn’t. Sex and the pursuit
0:16:07 of it leads to romance and intimacy and lights a fire under young men to better themselves,
0:16:15 to be more attractive to potential mates. This intimacy often involves sacrifice,
0:16:20 the forsaking all other stuff that comes when a pair of young people decide, “I choose you.”
0:16:27 This often leads to children. The most wonderful things in life, in my experience,
0:16:35 lack rationality and structure. My grandmother, regarding finding a mate, used to say, “You have
0:16:44 your list and then you fall in love and you tear up your list.” The person you fall for
0:16:49 and how it happens will likely make less sense than almost any other important thing in your life.
0:16:55 And that’s one of the reasons it’s wonderful. It speaks to you on a different level,
0:17:02 not what society or your parents want, but what you desire. And eventually the answer
0:17:06 to the most important question of your life, “Who do you want to have a family with?”
0:17:15 According to Gallup, though, only about 21% of Americans under 30 have kids.
0:17:23 In 1980, the figure was about 38%. In 1950, it was about 50%.
0:17:31 There are a lot of reasons for that, but the war on bodily autonomy is a contributing factor.
0:17:39 The state laws, restricting or banning abortion that sprang up in the wake of Rose Demise,
0:17:46 are designed to limit the sexual freedom of young women and men and undermine their ability to
0:17:53 get into the game and create families. The people most vulnerable in a post-abortion America
0:18:00 are poor women. Affluent women will be able to get hold of myth of pristone or to travel
0:18:07 for a safe legal abortion. A pregnant 17-year-old black single mother in Alabama, however,
0:18:15 is at ground zero for an emerging gender apartheid. She’s likely already poor and forced to carry
0:18:20 an unwanted pregnancy to term, she and the father, if he’s even in the picture,
0:18:27 become less likely to escape poverty. While Democrats have pushed hard to get
0:18:33 young women to turn out and vote, the Harris campaign hasn’t been making the case to young men
0:18:40 that the fight for bodily autonomy involves them too. That needs to change. Harris in the White
0:18:47 House offers a chance to begin to reclaim the Supreme Court for the majority in this country
0:18:53 who support bodily autonomy and a national effort to roll back state restrictions on it.
0:19:01 I don’t think electing Harrison Walls is going to magically bring young men out of the crisis
0:19:09 they are in. I do think, however, that it’s an important step. A vote for Harrison Walls is a
0:19:16 vote for the future, a vote to continue to improve economic policies that have served America well,
0:19:23 that can give young men a place in it. It is also a vote for a shift in the way we think
0:19:30 about masculinity in this country. This is the most anxious generation in U.S. history.
0:19:37 Action absorbs anxiety, and I hope young men will exercise their agency
0:19:43 and support candidates who enable them to be providers, protectors, and procreators.
0:19:48 I believe a Harris Walls administration will serve young men well.
0:19:53 If you disagree, again, we’ll both be fine.
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0:01:47 Episode 322, Route 322, is a US-high-wage version of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey in 1922.
0:01:50 The first 3D movie was screened.
0:01:56 I do an imitation of a 3D printer, and then my son tells me to close the bathroom when I’m taking a dump.
0:01:59 Go! Go! Go!
0:02:11 Welcome to the 322nd episode of The Prop G-Pod.
0:02:16 In today’s episode, we speak with Angela Duckworth, a psychologist, co-founder of the Character Lab,
0:02:20 and a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania.
0:02:25 She is also the author of the number one New York Times bestseller, GRIT, The Power of Passion and Perseverance.
0:02:28 We discussed with Angela great in perseverance.
0:02:29 That makes sense.
0:02:34 How to create environments for success and advice for raising resilient kids.
0:02:35 Okay, what’s happening?
0:02:38 Daddy went to the WNBA finals.
0:02:38 That’s right.
0:02:39 I get floor seats.
0:02:40 That’s what happens when you know.
0:02:43 Kara Swisher, the first WNBA game I go to.
0:02:45 Talk about a privileged lifestyle.
0:02:51 As I go to the last game of the finals at home for the New York Liberty, it goes into overtime and they win.
0:02:55 And by the way, these women are an absolute inspiration.
0:03:01 Anyways, in New York, headed doing my son’s or one of my son’s college tours,
0:03:05 which is both inspiring and exceptionally anxious.
0:03:07 My son is in New York.
0:03:08 Does he see me?
0:03:09 No.
0:03:14 My two sons are less impressed with me than anyone I know.
0:03:15 Anyone I know.
0:03:18 And that’s like a fairly high bar to be not impressed by me.
0:03:20 There are a lot of people who are exceptionally unimpressed.
0:03:23 Anyways, ask your parents.
0:03:24 You’ll figure it out when you’re a parent.
0:03:25 What’s happening?
0:03:27 We have exciting news to share.
0:03:28 Oh my God.
0:03:29 This is exciting.
0:03:34 The Raging Moderates podcast now has its own feed.
0:03:37 Whoa, alert the media.
0:03:41 This is, oh my goodness, all this excitement.
0:03:46 In case you missed it, Raging Moderates is a Prodigy podcast co-hosted with our favorite
0:03:48 political gangster, Jessica Tarlaw.
0:03:52 For those of you who don’t know Jessica, she’s a rising star or maybe she’s risen.
0:03:58 She’s on the most popular cable news network show, The Five, Fox’s weeknight news program
0:04:01 and plays a key role in special coverage for the network.
0:04:04 Every Tuesday on Raging Moderates, Jess and I will have an in-depth conversation on the
0:04:07 likes of political news through a centrist lens.
0:04:11 So with that, we hope you enjoy Raging Moderates, a weekly podcast from the Prodigy
0:04:12 universe.
0:04:16 Episodes will be on the new feed every Tuesday and we’ll link the new feed in the description
0:04:19 of this episode to Resist This Feudal.
0:04:21 I’m AOL in the ’90s.
0:04:22 I’m fucking everywhere.
0:04:23 Just give up.
0:04:24 Surrender to the dog.
0:04:27 Surrender to the dog.
0:04:29 Okay, moving on.
0:04:33 Disney announced it will name Bob Iger’s successor in early 2026.
0:04:34 So this is sort of the long goodbye.
0:04:36 I think it was a mistake for Bob to come back.
0:04:37 I do think it’s good that we have churn.
0:04:42 I think there are too many old white guys in media who don’t understand the new technologies
0:04:45 and just basically understand how to pay themselves a shit ton of money while destroying
0:04:48 shareholder value.
0:04:52 So essentially this kind of succession strategy is an elegant way to say it’s time for you
0:04:53 to leave.
0:04:54 He probably wants out.
0:04:59 I don’t know what the situation is, but they’ve identified people from four different areas
0:05:00 as their likely successor.
0:05:02 So now it’s the Hunger Games.
0:05:07 And most likely the person who gets selected has had more time in the boardroom and for
0:05:10 whatever reason has a good impression or the board has a good impression of him or her.
0:05:12 It’s very random who you choose as CEO.
0:05:13 Is that true?
0:05:14 Is it random?
0:05:15 A little bit.
0:05:19 Disney has put former Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman in charge of its succession committee
0:05:23 and he’s set to take over as board chairman on January 2nd, 2025.
0:05:27 My guess is it’ll probably be the person whoever’s sitting on the business that is the least
0:05:30 bad in the Disney portfolio right now.
0:05:32 Gorman is a very impressive guy.
0:05:36 He’s successfully navigated Morgan Stanley’s CEO transition and he’s replacing former
0:05:40 Nike CEO Mark Parker from the Disney board who has been in the world for just two years.
0:05:42 I think this is good corporate governance.
0:05:43 I’m happy for it.
0:05:48 It seems like Disney to me is a well-run board, if you will, who’s going to be a successor
0:05:51 back the guy who oversees the theme parks and the video games.
0:05:52 That would be my bet.
0:05:53 Not because I don’t know.
0:05:54 Josh Damaro.
0:05:55 That’s a cool name.
0:05:56 Josh Damaro.
0:05:57 Hi, I’m Josh Damaro.
0:05:58 That sounds just like a…
0:06:01 Doesn’t that sound like a guy you could, I don’t know, have a beer with?
0:06:04 Dana Walden who co-leads Disney’s entertainment unit.
0:06:05 I’m entirely sure what that means.
0:06:06 Isn’t it all entertainment?
0:06:11 ESPN, Jimmy Petaro, Alan Bergman who also co-chairs Disney Entertainment.
0:06:13 I imagine there’s also opportunity for an outside person.
0:06:14 We’ll see.
0:06:15 Be fun to bet on who it is.
0:06:18 The big picture with Disney shares trading under $100 most of the year and the company
0:06:21 facing challenges in both streaming and its theme park business.
0:06:26 Can the new CEO, whoever it may be, steer the company in the right direction?
0:06:31 I just think this company, this was one of my stock picks for 2024.
0:06:35 This company has such incredible assets.
0:06:41 We do this brand identity audit in brand strategy, and one of the things we talk about is leveraging
0:06:44 your brand as symbols, which are assets.
0:06:53 Brand as symbol here, what, Mickey, the Matterhorn, the Castle, Walt Disney himself, Goofy, Star
0:06:56 Wars characters which they now own, Luke Skywalker, Darth Vader.
0:07:03 They just have so many assets, and I do think that Disney Plus is a survivor in what has
0:07:04 become the Hunger Games of business.
0:07:09 The streaming networks because its positioning is so clean and clear around family.
0:07:14 If you have kids, you have to have Disney Plus and you have to go to Disneyland.
0:07:18 I always thought the opportunity for them was a membership offering where for $50 a month
0:07:22 you get Disney Plus and you get access to the parks on specific days where it’s not
0:07:25 a fucking shit show and you don’t have to wait three hours to go on the avatar ride.
0:07:28 That literally rattled the shit out of me.
0:07:33 We’re seeing all these families who had clearly saved all year, paying $3,000 to stay in a
0:07:38 shitty hotel with shitty food and then wait three hours in a line as their six-year-old
0:07:40 falls asleep in their arms.
0:07:42 At some point, that becomes abuse.
0:07:45 I literally think that’s abusive.
0:07:49 Your kids are addicted to these programs and then you make them wait three hours at avatar.
0:07:52 Anyway, it’s Disney Plus, $50 a month recurring revenue.
0:07:56 What doesn’t sound like that much, you got Disney and then you get special access to
0:08:00 the park on days where it’s not too crowded, whatever.
0:08:04 Your daughter gets a princess outfit that she can wear to the Disney parks.
0:08:08 I just think they need to do a better job of CRM than saying, “All right, are you a
0:08:09 Disney family?”
0:08:11 Yeah, you’re a family, which means you need to be a Disney family.
0:08:15 We’re going to send you, you get access to Frozen two weeks before anyone else, whatever
0:08:17 they’re on, Frozen 11.
0:08:20 I have absolutely no desire to see Frozen, none.
0:08:21 None whatsoever.
0:08:25 They’re a few things less appealing to me than Frozen.
0:08:32 Is that wrong?
0:08:36 That’s like not liking Taylor Swift, that probably triggers about a billion people.
0:08:42 Anyways, the stock is up 7% year to date, but over the last 10 years, it’s been flat.
0:08:47 When you think about this as the icon, this is what Ford was to Detroit, Disney is to
0:08:48 Los Angeles.
0:08:52 Supposedly production is down 40% in Los Angeles.
0:08:59 I did a call yesterday with a super impressive guy who’s had a storied career in film production,
0:09:00 and he was very honest.
0:09:01 He said, “My career here has kind of hit a wall.
0:09:03 Do you have any thoughts or ideas for me?”
0:09:05 By the way, I typically coach young men.
0:09:10 I find there’s an enormous number of men my age who are trying to figure out their second
0:09:13 act that the ground is shifted underneath them.
0:09:17 They typically don’t have the same level of mental health problems that I perceive among
0:09:22 young kids who have their brains wired during puberty by this fucking dopa bag called their
0:09:26 smartphone and meta.
0:09:32 But I’m really struck at how many men are out there trying to find the next thing if
0:09:33 you will.
0:09:34 I don’t know.
0:09:35 I don’t know what brought that up.
0:09:37 Anyways, let’s talk about something more inspiring.
0:09:38 I know three words.
0:09:39 First word, chick.
0:09:40 Second word, Phil.
0:09:41 Third word, a.
0:09:42 Chick-fil-a.
0:09:43 I love Chick-fil-a.
0:09:47 I don’t know if you know this, but I’ve been on several corporate boards, and the thing
0:09:50 we used to talk about on the board at Panera was how Chick-fil-a had NPS scores that were
0:09:54 like 30% higher than every other industry.
0:09:55 Why is that?
0:09:59 Not because the chicken’s not much better, but because of their compensation schematic
0:10:00 and culture.
0:10:02 That is, every Chick-fil-a has an owner.
0:10:05 They get thousands of applications for someone to be a franchisee.
0:10:08 They loan them the money, and they literally are an owner.
0:10:10 There’s all these studies.
0:10:13 When the owner isn’t there, the amount of time it takes you to get your meal, the level
0:10:18 of shrinkage, which is theft, how clean the bathrooms are, everything goes down when the
0:10:19 owner’s not there.
0:10:22 Basically, Chick-fil-a has figured out a way to have an owner there in every restaurant.
0:10:23 They do an amazing job.
0:10:29 The company plans to launch a new app, Chick-fil-a Play on November 18th, featuring original
0:10:33 content on clinic family friendly shows, podcast games, and even recipes.
0:10:37 I love this company.
0:10:41 They got a bad rap for being too conservative because of their homophobic policies, which
0:10:44 was the old owner or the former owner, whatever, fine.
0:10:45 They deserve shit.
0:10:46 They got it next.
0:10:47 It’s a good company.
0:10:52 Actually, it’s probably more progressive than a lot of firms, and they do an amazing job.
0:10:57 If you do the drive-through, the handhelds, they clearly invest in a lot of innovation.
0:11:01 I think the world of this company, if they were public, which I don’t believe they are,
0:11:02 no, they’re not.
0:11:03 That’s the stock I would own.
0:11:05 Anyways, but they’re basically moving into media.
0:11:06 Why are they moving into media?
0:11:10 According to Dustin Britt, Chick-fil-a’s executive director of Brand Strategy, the company noticed
0:11:15 a link between content consumption and mealtimes, particularly for families with children.
0:11:16 Jesus Christ.
0:11:20 I hadn’t thought about that, but now it makes all the sense in the world.
0:11:22 My kid’s always consuming media.
0:11:25 Even when he’s consuming food, that’s a big point of contention for us.
0:11:26 Phone’s down.
0:11:27 Screen’s off.
0:11:31 We just want to have dinner with you, which is torture for them.
0:11:34 Anyways, that makes a lot of sense.
0:11:41 The idea that they would, in fact, try and convert media consumption or games into mealtime,
0:11:42 it’s kind of interesting.
0:11:44 Do I think it’s going to work?
0:11:45 Probably not.
0:11:46 Do I think they should do it?
0:11:48 Yes, because I think you’d take swings like that and see what happens.
0:11:53 That’s part of innovation, and we’re talking about it, which kind of signals innovation
0:11:57 around their brand, so Chick-fil-a, well done.
0:11:58 Let’s talk about kids.
0:12:02 Children’s engagement with certain types of digital devices varies wildly by age.
0:12:03 Get this.
0:12:07 9 to 11, two-thirds of them are on some sort of gaming device.
0:12:09 Three-quarters of them engage with a desktop or laptop computer.
0:12:11 I’m talking about 9 to 11-year-olds.
0:12:12 Get this.
0:12:16 Almost two-thirds of 5 to 8-year-olds have some sort of gaming device.
0:12:19 This is a shit that’s really scary, is two-thirds of 9 to 11-year-olds have a smartphone.
0:12:20 Jesus.
0:12:21 9 to 11?
0:12:22 Really?
0:12:23 Really?
0:12:27 Percentage of U.S. parents of a child age 11 or younger who say that.
0:12:30 As far as I know, their child ever uses or interacts with it.
0:12:31 Oh my God.
0:12:32 That is just nuts.
0:12:34 You know what else is really big.
0:12:41 Tablets, about four-fifths of kids between the ages of 5 and 11 are on tablets.
0:12:45 I essentially think I used to, I think Tim Cook has just done such a great job managing
0:12:52 his brand and so has Sunder Pichai, but effectively they’re sitting outside at junior high school
0:12:54 selling heroin.
0:12:59 They’re basically training our kids to be total fucking addicts, just as their brain
0:13:00 is being wired.
0:13:02 They’re gonna punch into the ecosystem or into our culture.
0:13:07 A ton of kids that are gonna be massively hungry for dopa and they’re gonna find a lot
0:13:09 of unusual ways to get it.
0:13:12 There’s no reason why anyone should have a smartphone under the age of 16.
0:13:13 Is it entirely their fault?
0:13:19 No, but they’re happy to be there and lie in obfuscate while a feckless, ineffective government
0:13:21 does nothing about it.
0:13:26 Anyways, this is, in my opinion, one of the things, and I’m worried about a lot, but one
0:13:30 of the things I’m really worried about is just as your kid’s brain is coming online,
0:13:34 you’re training it to need constant mini hits of dopa all the time.
0:13:42 We put a casino, an IMAX, an IPIC, an arcade all into their pockets, such that at any moment
0:13:45 in time, they can pull it up if they need a little bit of dopa.
0:13:47 What’s our role as parents?
0:13:52 I think my role as a dad is slopa, I like that, slow dopa, and that is to try and instill
0:13:59 a sense of success over time, practice, working out, strength, slow progress that results
0:14:03 in more enduring and satisfying rewards.
0:14:04 Slow dopa.
0:14:05 That’s me.
0:14:06 Call me dad.
0:14:07 Call me slopa.
0:14:12 We’ll be right back for our conversation with Angela Duckworth.
0:14:14 What software do you use at work?
0:14:19 The answer to that question is probably more complicated than you want it to be.
0:14:24 The average U.S. company deploys more than 100 apps, and ideas about the work we do can
0:14:27 be radically changed by the tools we use to do it.
0:14:29 So what is enterprise software anyway?
0:14:31 What is productivity software?
0:14:33 How will AI affect both?
0:14:37 And how are these tools changing the way we use our computers to make stuff, communicate,
0:14:39 and plan for the future?
0:14:44 In this three-part special series, Decoder is surveying the IT landscape presented by
0:14:50 AWS. Check it out wherever you get your podcasts.
0:14:52 Support for PropT comes from NerdWallet.
0:14:55 If you’re a listener of the show, you know business, and if you’re looking for a resource
0:14:59 to find financial products that can help you make smart financial decisions, turn to the
0:15:02 nerds at NerdWallet.
0:15:06 Not only have they spent thousands of hours researching and reviewing over 1,300 financial
0:15:09 products, but they have the tools you need to make smarter decisions.
0:15:11 Looking for a credit card?
0:15:15 The NerdWallet can go beyond the basic comparisons, filter for the features that matter to you,
0:15:17 and read in-depth reviews.
0:15:19 Ready to choose a high-yield savings account?
0:15:22 Get access to exclusive deals and compare rates, bonuses, and more.
0:15:23 House hunting?
0:15:27 View today’s top mortgage rates for your home sweet home.
0:15:30 Make the nerds your go-to resource for smart financial decisions.
0:15:32 Head to nerdwallet.com/learnmore.
0:15:33 NerdWallet.
0:15:34 Finance.
0:15:35 Smarter.
0:15:45 Incorporated, NMLS 1617539.
0:15:50 About a year ago, two twin brothers in Wisconsin discovered, kind of by accident, that mini-golf
0:15:54 might be the perfect spectator sport for the TikTok era.
0:16:00 Meanwhile, a YouTuber in Brooklyn found himself less interested in tech YouTube and more interested
0:16:02 in making coffee.
0:16:07 This month on The Vergecast, we’re telling stories about these people who tried to find
0:16:11 new ways to make content, new ways to build businesses around that content, and new ways
0:16:14 to make content about those businesses.
0:16:17 Our series is called How to Make It in the Future, and it’s all this month on The Vergecast,
0:16:31 wherever you get podcasts.
0:16:32 Welcome back.
0:16:35 Today, we’re going to talk about how to make it in the future, and how to make it happen.
0:16:40 We’re going to talk about how to make it in the future, and how to make it happen in the
0:16:41 future.
0:16:45 So, we’re going to talk about how to make it happen in the future, and how to make it
0:16:46 happen in the future.
0:16:50 So, we’re going to talk about how to make it happen in the future.
0:16:52 So, we’re going to talk about how to make it happen in the future, and how to make it
0:16:53 happen in the future.
0:16:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:16:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:16:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:16:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:16:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:16:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:46 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:17:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:16 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:17 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:18 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:31 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:18:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:16 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:17 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:18 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:19:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:19:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:31 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:46 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:20:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:16 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:17 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:18 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:21:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:21:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:21:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:21:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:22:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:22:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:22:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:22:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:22:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:22:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:22:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:22:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:22:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:22:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:22:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:22:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:22:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:22:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:23:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:23:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:23:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:23:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:24:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:24:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:24:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:24:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:16 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:17 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:18 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:25:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:31 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:46 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:26:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:17 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:18 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:31 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:27:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:16 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:17 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:18 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:28:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:46 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:29:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:16 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:17 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:18 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:31 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:30:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:16 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:17 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:18 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:46 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:31:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:46 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:32:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:31 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:33:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:16 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:17 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:18 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:19 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:20 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:46 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:34:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:01 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:02 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:03 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:04 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:05 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:06 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:07 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:08 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:09 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:10 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:11 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:12 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:13 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:14 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:15 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:37 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:38 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:39 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:40 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:41 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:42 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:43 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:44 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:45 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:46 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:47 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:48 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:49 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:50 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:51 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:52 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:53 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:54 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:55 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:56 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:57 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:58 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:35:59 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:36:00 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:36:21 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:36:22 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:36:23 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:36:24 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:36:25 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:36:26 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:36:27 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:36:28 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:36:29 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:36:30 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:36:31 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:36:32 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:36:33 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:36:34 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:36:35 So, how to make it happen in the future.
0:36:36 So, how to make it happen in the future.
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0:37:43 Professor, do you have children?
0:37:47 I have two. They are 23 and 21.
0:37:51 How did this work impact your approach to raising kids?
0:37:57 When I started graduate school, I was pregnant with Lucy and I think I was still nursing Amanda.
0:38:02 So, I was becoming a mom at the same time as I was becoming a psychologist.
0:38:07 And because I really didn’t know anything about psychology, I really was starting from scratch, right?
0:38:13 I wasn’t a psychology major. I majored in neurobiology. I had a master’s in neuroscience, but it was really a very different thing.
0:38:17 So, I was learning about everything, Piaget for the first, I mean everything.
0:38:24 And then I would come home and turn the key and the lock and then I would walk over the threshold and I would be a mom and not a psychology student.
0:38:37 But of course, it was all the same me and so I feel like my study of self-control and of grit and of effort and the foil for those things,
0:38:45 which are whatever it is to be innately talented or naturally intelligent, I mean, it was just all in my head.
0:38:58 And I think how it influenced my parenting and I should say our parenting because my husband Jason and I were, you know, talking every night about like what I was learning as a researcher.
0:39:10 I mean, I did raise them to believe that excellence comes from, you know, pick your favorite quote, but let’s take John Wooden, the UCLA basketball coach, right?
0:39:21 Who said there are eight laws of learning, explanation, demonstration, imitation, how to get the repetition.
0:39:28 Oh, and then the last ones are easy. Repetition, repetition, repetition, repetition, so five of the eight, right, are the same.
0:39:37 So, I did raise them to not think of excellence as a magic trick, you know, they’re 23 and 21, so they’re still sampling.
0:39:42 But I will say, I think they, you know, drank the Kool-Aid, so to speak.
0:39:47 I’ll start with the thesis. I coach a lot of young men.
0:39:56 My general and there is some research here that while physically stronger boys are emotionally and psychologically weaker than girls.
0:40:04 If they’re raised in a single parent household, they’re much less likely their outcomes are worse when they lose a male role model.
0:40:11 Or is when girls are in, go from dual parent to single parent homes, they have similar outcomes. They’re more resilient.
0:40:17 Have you found any research that finds that young women are more resilient or demonstrate more grit than young men?
0:40:27 I had a female neurosurgeon approach, Maine, it’s been a few years, so I can’t remember much about the interaction except for that she had a hypothesis.
0:40:31 She said, you know, there aren’t many of us meaning female neurosurgeons.
0:40:40 In fact, they apparently, if I recall correctly, which I may not because it’s been a few years, like they have a number because there’s so few that like, you know, it’s like a deli.
0:40:44 You know, you get the next number, I don’t know what number she was, 125 or whatever she was.
0:40:53 And she said, I just can’t believe that there’s equal grit among the female and the male neurosurgeons in part just because of selection, right?
0:40:56 It’s like a fine mesh sieve and we’re still here.
0:41:01 So we did do a little study. We, or she, I should say, you know, I just gave her the grit scale.
0:41:08 The grit scale is a 12-item questionnaire and has very obvious items, you know, setbacks don’t discourage me.
0:41:16 I finish whatever I begin. It’s got passion items about having consistency in a goal for very long periods of time.
0:41:25 And when the data came back, I’ll tell you, you know, she did not find a statistically significant gender difference, I think, favoring either side, honestly.
0:41:32 Now, that doesn’t mean there aren’t any. There are lots of, you know, boring aspects of self-report questionnaires that we can talk about.
0:41:40 One of them, though, that’s very relevant to looking at gender differences is something I studied, it’s called reference bias.
0:41:46 So, Scott, if you take a questionnaire and I take a questionnaire and we read the same item, I am a hard worker.
0:41:52 You first conjure up an image of a hard worker and then you measure yourself to that standard.
0:42:03 One of the things that I think may obscure gender differences is that if that person has higher standards, then you have two forces that are working in opposition.
0:42:10 On one hand, they may really be grittier. On the other hand, their higher standard is going to yield a lower score.
0:42:15 And this has absolutely been documented in cross-cultural research.
0:42:23 So, in one study, there are over, I think, 60 countries and it wasn’t a grit scale, but it was a measure of overall conscientiousness, right?
0:42:31 Big five, conscientiousness, you know, being orderly and responsible and I, you know, imagine like, you know, detail-oriented.
0:42:35 But also, by the way, this is the family that includes grit and self-control, so that family.
0:42:44 And they gave it to people in all these different countries and then the very simple question was, like, what are the most conscientious countries in the world?
0:42:54 And when the data came in, it was fairly shocking because whereas the, you know, leaders were not especially clear, but what I remember from the paper was that the losers were.
0:43:02 So, the lowest conscientious countries were, I think, Japan, like South Korea, like maybe China.
0:43:06 I mean, these countries that stereotypically, you’re like, really? Like, really?
0:43:15 And what I believe and I think what the authors of this research report also believe is that what you’re really revealing there are standards, right?
0:43:22 It’s probably that, you know, the same words are on the paper, but they’re essentially answering different questionnaires.
0:43:26 So, on gender, I have not found reliable gender differences in grit.
0:43:28 That’s probably a good thing, yes.
0:43:33 You know, I don’t know whether there really are, but I will say this.
0:43:38 I think I have to be careful because I think I’m actually biased towards women.
0:43:41 So, I’m aware of that.
0:43:46 You know, I will say there is a gender difference that we haven’t talked about that goes against your hypothesis.
0:43:55 And I’ll say these are data that come from, like, giving women tasks like an IQ test and men the same IQ test.
0:43:56 There are differences in confidence.
0:44:00 There are differences in, you know, like, okay, you just took this test.
0:44:01 Scott, what do you think you did?
0:44:04 Like, how do you think, how do you, oh, I think I did great, right?
0:44:08 Women with the same score will be like, oh, you know, terribly, right?
0:44:16 So, I think there are differences in confidence that are not necessarily justified, but also would work against your hypothesis.
0:44:19 So, you have a new book you’ve been writing on the power of the situation.
0:44:22 You say that the entire book can be summarized with this sentence.
0:44:27 Achieving your goals is easier when you make your situation your ally.
0:44:29 That feels very obvious.
0:44:32 Putting yourself in the right room, the right context, the right platform.
0:44:34 Say more about that.
0:44:40 Do some people not recognize the importance of the context or the situation?
0:44:46 I think there are, you know, two reasons why people do not recognize the power of the situation.
0:44:56 One is, you know, Victor Frankel’s, you know, the message that people heard from Man Search for Meaning that some people heard is that, well, unfortunately, you cannot change your circumstances.
0:44:59 But you can change how you respond to them.
0:45:03 You know, I don’t think that’s actually what Victor Frankel meant.
0:45:11 I mean, I don’t think Victor Frankel was like, so what, there are concentration camps and Nazis and, you know, our entire people are being extinguished.
0:45:15 What really matters is our attitude because we have to control the controllables.
0:45:18 So, I think there’s a kind of misunderstanding.
0:45:22 I think many circumstances are given, but not all.
0:45:27 And I think that impediment, that kind of like, oh, you got to control the controllables, meaning yourself.
0:45:33 And, you know, this list of things that you can’t control gets rounded up to be everything, right?
0:45:39 So, I think people do overlook the situation in part because they assume it’s a given.
0:45:46 And the second reason is that even when you can control your, let’s say, gozempic as one very controversial example, right?
0:45:51 I think there are people who would consider taking gozempic for weight loss to be a form of weakness.
0:46:00 You know, sort of, you know, kind of, well, if you were stronger, if you, you know, were just more disciplined, if you, dot, dot, dot.
0:46:03 Well, then you wouldn’t need to rely on this crutch, right?
0:46:06 People think like using chatGBT is cheating, right?
0:46:15 And I know you can actually cheat with chatGBT, but these are just two features of your situation that you could use to your advantage or not use to your advantage.
0:46:22 So, the second reason I think we overlook the power of the situation is that it feels like cheating when the situation is helping us.
0:46:28 And the very cover of grits, which I don’t even know if I have back here, but anyway, on this bookshelf, there might be a copy of grit.
0:46:35 And if I pulled it out, you know, it’s this one big arrow going to the right against these little arrows that go to the left.
0:46:42 And the idea of grit, I think, is about overcoming, you know, overcoming aspects of your situation for sure.
0:46:51 But I think what that leaves out, it’s not that this book is a correction, but I do think it’s a completion of the idea, is that it’s great to have a big arrow pointing to the right.
0:46:52 It’s great to work hard.
0:46:55 It’s great to pick yourself up and be resilient.
0:47:00 But why not do that in a river that’s flowing in your direction?
0:47:16 Last question here. Two or three pieces of advice to parents who recognize the importance of grit and want to do what they can to try and instill a sense of grit, putting their kids in the right context or situation to be successful.
0:47:27 If you tried to distill it down, and every book on parenting I read just kind of says to me, no one has any idea. Every book I read seems to contradict the one before it.
0:47:35 But could you, are there two or three things that you would say are kind of tried and true in terms of helping your kids establish this fantastic competence?
0:47:44 You know, I think every kid benefits from having a kind of surrogate parent at a certain point, often in their teen years, sometimes younger.
0:47:52 And what I mean by that is their track coach, their violin teacher, the AP history teacher who really pushed them.
0:47:57 And why are these surrogate parents so, I don’t know, essential even is one word that comes to mind.
0:47:59 So listen to them.
0:48:03 Well, exactly, because we are rejecting the actual parents that we have.
0:48:06 And I watched it with my own kids.
0:48:12 You’ve got to outsource some of these parents because there’s almost nothing you can do.
0:48:17 One day my daughter comes home from like track practice and she was like, oh, you got to get bed early.
0:48:18 I need to drink water.
0:48:20 Like, you know, I can’t be eating all this crap.
0:48:24 And I was like, like, I’ve been saying all these things, especially on the sleep.
0:48:27 And it’s like, oh, because our track coach told her, right?
0:48:30 So I think one thing is outsourcing some of the modeling.
0:48:35 And I think that does come through extracurricular activities almost always, right?
0:48:41 And I guess the, you know, the second thing is, you know, we talked a little bit about sampling versus specializing.
0:48:46 I remember vividly, I think it was like the headmaster when these elite schools,
0:48:49 it may or may not have been where Bill Gates went to school,
0:48:56 and it may or may not have been the principal or head of the school that he attended while he was attending it.
0:49:03 But I remember what he said, which is that when he looked at the parents of the kids who ended up being very successful,
0:49:09 you know, the parents were watching their kids like hawks for what sparked their kids’ interest.
0:49:13 And I know it sounds like kind of like a, you know, soft or hooky thing,
0:49:17 but like, you know what, if your kid’s not interested in something, they’re not going to be great at it.
0:49:25 And so looking for those, I think looking for flickers of interest is more important than looking at flickers of talent, right?
0:49:31 Not just like what seems to come easily to your kid, but what holds their attention, you know, those are the seeds of passion.
0:49:42 So I lied, one final, final question. What can kill grit? What do you need to avoid? What can get you stuck or reduce the levels of grit?
0:49:48 Well, we talked about the situation. We, you know, don’t have a whole conversation on burnout.
0:49:54 But I do think there’s a nuance here. Like, if you just look at correlations between grit and burnout,
0:49:58 the grittier people are less burned out. That’s honestly not shocking.
0:50:05 But I think really gritty people are in some ways at the highest risk of burnout because slackers don’t get burned out.
0:50:11 And gritty people work so hard and they are so tenacious. So what imperils grit?
0:50:17 I think when you asked about, you know, you know, what are the environments, the crucible, I said, like, I’m listening to your story.
0:50:25 I hear a lot of challenge. I’m guessing that there’s another through line of support somewhere in there or Scott wouldn’t become Scott.
0:50:32 So I think burnout is what happens when you try really, really hard in a very gritty way, probably.
0:50:41 And somehow things are just not working for you. And when that happens, I think looking outside of yourself instead of inside yourself,
0:50:47 looking at what could make it easier to accomplish your goals as opposed to berating yourself for not trying harder.
0:50:49 Honestly, Scott, that’s what I’m trying to do.
0:50:57 Yeah, forgive yourself. Angela Duckworth is a psychologist, the co-founder of Character Lab and a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania.
0:51:04 She’s also the author of the number one New York Times bestseller, Grit, The Power of Passion and Perseverance.
0:51:10 She joined us from her office at the great educational institution, the University of Pennsylvania.
0:51:19 Professor, you own, you literally own a character attribute. That is such good for you. Well done.
0:51:26 Oh, it’s not patented. You know, when the Flyers named their, the Philadelphia Flyers hockey team, when they named their mascot, Gritty,
0:51:30 no royalties were exchanged, nor should they have been.
0:51:39 Yeah, but more importantly, when people say to your kids, who is your mom, my mom was a grit woman, there’s just a lot worse things you could say about people.
0:51:42 Congratulations on your success. Thank you, Scott.
0:51:59 Algebra of happiness. I’ve been thinking a lot about masculinity. I’m writing a book on it and some younger people said masculinity is an outdated word.
0:52:03 So it might be notes on becoming a man and I’m trying to write a book.
0:52:13 It not only talks about I’m not trying to position myself as an expert because I’m not, but talking about where I failed as a man and what I’ve learned and where I’ve done okay.
0:52:25 And I think I’ve been thinking a lot about the election and some of the swing voters still up for grabs are young men and the Democratic Party has done a terrible job of making young men feel seen.
0:52:36 And what does that mean programs acknowledging that young men are struggling, but they are, I believe the election might be won by young men, and that is or loss, if you will, or decided, I should say.
0:52:42 And that is this election was supposed to be seen as a referendum on women’s rights. And I think that’s largely the case.
0:52:49 But I think people who feel strongly about bodily autonomy one way or the other have already decided it’s young men that are up for grabs.
0:52:59 And I’d like to think that everyone should have a code. And I’d like to think that masculinity or an aspirational modern form masculinity could be a great code.
0:53:08 And this is why I am supporting or one of the reasons I am supporting and we always get shit for being political on the show.
0:53:11 I get it. That’s not why you invited me here, but I want to be transparent.
0:53:18 I think the economy is doing really well and or better than most people want to acknowledge it’s not evenly distributed.
0:53:21 But we have the least bad economy in the world right now.
0:53:29 And when I think about your code of being a man or becoming a man, I think of three legs of the stool.
0:53:32 I think provider protector and procreator.
0:53:41 So provider is much easier to be a provider in a strong economy. And this is lowest unemployment rate, high GDP growth, lowest inflation.
0:53:48 I think you’re more likely to be able to be a provider in this economy, protector.
0:53:56 I think men’s first instinct should be to protection. Real men break up fights. They don’t start them. Real men defend their country.
0:54:01 They don’t shit post it. Real men immediately their default setting is protection.
0:54:06 And then this is the one that’s a little harder or a little more controversial, procreator.
0:54:12 The most wonderful thing in my life, hands down, is raising boys with a competent partner.
0:54:19 And how did it start? Sex. I didn’t see my partner at the pool at the Raleigh Hotel and think, “Wow, she’d be great.
0:54:25 I bet she’s really good with a 401(k) or at some points going to buy apartments and fix them up and generate cash flow for us.”
0:54:30 I thought, “I’d really like to have sex with that woman.” And I think sex is a wonderful thing.
0:54:35 And I think desiring sex and wanting to be physical with women, I think that is how most relationships start.
0:54:42 And then you have sex or you’re physical, you really enjoy it. You start hanging out together and you find you like each other
0:54:48 and you find you miss that person and you decide to build a life together and maybe have kids. That’s the whole shooting match.
0:54:55 AI, GDP growth, Trump versus Harris, that is all a means to the ends. And the ends is deep and meaningful relationships.
0:55:00 Specifically, the most important one will be who you have kids with and see above sex.
0:55:10 I think it’s good for men to be, I don’t want to say aggressive, but to initiate contact, to approach strange women or strange men
0:55:14 and express romantic interests while making them feel safe.
0:55:21 If you approach somebody at a bar, ask them out for coffee, whatever it is and they’re not interested, you’re both going to be fine.
0:55:25 You are a provider, a protector and a procreator.
0:55:33 This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez and Caroline Shagren and Drew Burroughs is our technical director.
0:55:36 Thank you for listening to the PropG Pod from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
0:55:40 We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy, No Malice as read by George Hahn.
0:55:46 And please follow our PropG Markets Pod wherever you get your pods for new episodes every Monday and Thursday.
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