No Mercy / No Malice: Optimism as a Default Setting
AI transcript
0:00:02 This is an ad by BetterHelp. 0:00:05 What are your self-care non-negotiables? 0:00:07 It’s hard to make time for the things that keep you healthy, 0:00:11 but being consistent with self-care is like working a muscle. 0:00:14 And when life gets crazy, that muscle keeps you strong. 0:00:16 Therapy is the ultimate self-care, 0:00:18 and BetterHelp makes it easy to get started 0:00:21 with affordable online sessions you can do from anywhere. 0:00:24 Never skip Therapy Day with BetterHelp. 0:00:26 Visit betterhelp.com to learn more. 0:00:29 That’s better, H-E-L-P, dot com. 0:00:33 Your mom hates it when you leave six half-full glasses 0:00:34 on your nightstand. 0:00:37 It’s a good thing mom lives on the other side of the country. 0:00:39 And it’s an even better thing that you can get 0:00:43 six Ikea 365+ glasses for just $9.99. 0:00:45 So go ahead, you can afford to hoard, 0:00:47 because Ikea is priced for student life. 0:00:50 Shop everything you need for back to school at Ikea today. 0:00:56 I’m Scott Galloway, and this is No Mercy, No Malice. 0:00:59 Josh Brown, the CMBC commentator and hedge fund manager 0:01:01 has become one of our favorite people. 0:01:03 We asked him to do a guest post. 0:01:05 This is adapted from his forthcoming book, 0:01:07 You Weren’t Supposed to See That, 0:01:09 coming out September 4th. 0:01:12 Optimism as a Default Setting, as read by George Hahn. 0:01:18 At the turn of the 20th century, 0:01:22 banker J.P. Morgan was the most powerful man on Wall Street, 0:01:25 perhaps the most powerful man in the world. 0:01:28 Finance in those days was still the wild west, 0:01:32 largely unregulated and prone to boom and bust cycles, 0:01:35 much more violent than anything we see today. 0:01:39 On several occasions, Morgan personally orchestrated 0:01:41 emergency measures to stop bank runs 0:01:44 that might have otherwise taken down the financial system, 0:01:47 typically increasing his own wealth in the process. 0:01:53 Shortly after one of those near misses, the Panic of 1907, 0:01:57 an old friend of Morgan’s from Chicago came for a visit. 0:02:00 The friend was, in the phrase of Mark Scousen, 0:02:04 from whom I got this story, a perma bear. 0:02:07 No matter what the market did, 0:02:09 his outcome was always pessimistic. 0:02:14 As usual, he and Morgan got to talking about the markets, 0:02:18 and as usual, Morgan’s friend saw poor omens 0:02:20 in every market indicator, 0:02:24 while Morgan saw only buying opportunities. 0:02:27 Eventually they headed out for lunch, 0:02:30 and walking up Broadway, Morgan’s friend 0:02:32 was admiring the towering skyscrapers 0:02:36 that were starting to define the Manhattan skyline. 0:02:37 Impressed, he acknowledged 0:02:40 they had nothing like them in Chicago. 0:02:44 Eventually, Morgan stopped, turned to his friend. 0:02:49 Funny thing about these skyscrapers, he said, 0:02:51 not a single one was built by a bear. 0:02:57 Six years before that conversation, 0:02:58 Morgan had completed his purchase 0:03:02 of Andrew Carnegie’s entire steel operation 0:03:06 for the unheard of sum of $480 million, 0:03:09 hundreds of billions in today’s dollars. 0:03:14 You don’t do that deal and amass that kind of wealth 0:03:16 with a persistently negative outlook. 0:03:21 Count the perma bears on the Forbes 400 list 0:03:23 or the amount of pessimists who run companies 0:03:25 in the Fortune 500. 0:03:28 You will find none. 0:03:32 Winners and men and women of foresight and ambition 0:03:35 do monumental things. 0:03:38 Pessimists watch them from the sidelines, 0:03:42 making a list of all the reasons things won’t work out. 0:03:45 The losers do get to win sometimes too, 0:03:49 but their victories tend to be pyrrhic, 0:03:52 as every calamity ultimately leads to opportunity 0:03:54 when the dust clears. 0:04:00 In 2009, deep in the depths of the great financial crisis, 0:04:03 I saw Sam Zell speak to an audience 0:04:06 of real estate investors and developers. 0:04:11 He told us that kings will be made in that moment. 0:04:14 He had nothing left to sell anyone, 0:04:17 having blown out of his massive real estate holdings 0:04:20 just three years earlier in a time of optimism. 0:04:24 Old Sam had seen too many of these cycles. 0:04:27 He knew that you always bet on positive outcomes 0:04:29 and you bet heavily when you’re alone 0:04:32 on that side of the trade. 0:04:35 It doesn’t always work, but it mostly does. 0:04:39 Pessimism is intellectually seductive 0:04:42 and the arguments always sound smarter, 0:04:45 especially when they dovetail with our own worries. 0:04:49 In the early years of the recovery from that crash, 0:04:52 Sam’s advice, which Morgan would have echoed, 0:04:54 was hard to follow. 0:04:57 Even four years later in 2013, 0:05:00 when the stock market finally made it back 0:05:04 over the 2007 high, optimism was scarce. 0:05:09 I remembered distinctly how hesitant investors were 0:05:12 to think positively about the future back then. 0:05:15 On financial social media, 0:05:17 saying things might work out okay 0:05:21 was practically an invitation to be mercilessly ridiculed. 0:05:25 There were all sorts of reasons not to trust the recovery 0:05:27 and if you know anything about the media, 0:05:30 then you know they had been relaying these reasons 0:05:33 to us morning, noon, and night, 0:05:38 repeatedly admonishing us lest we get too optimistic. 0:05:41 Valuations were high, they said, 0:05:44 while earnings would surely disappoint. 0:05:46 Interest rates would rise. 0:05:49 Various debt crises would ensue. 0:05:51 Demographics were unfavorable. 0:05:55 Obama’s healthcare plan surely meant the end of America. 0:05:57 A looming government shutdown that fall 0:06:01 would surely be the nail in the coffin. 0:06:05 And yet, somehow none of those things would sink us. 0:06:10 2013 turned out to have been the best year for stocks 0:06:14 since the Halcyon days of the late 1990s. 0:06:17 The Dow Jones industrial average finished the year 0:06:22 up 26.5%, its best finish in 18 years. 0:06:28 The S&P 500 had its best annual return in 16 years, 0:06:32 capping out the year with an almost 30% return, 0:06:36 ending December at a new record level. 0:06:40 The NASDAQ soared 38.2%, 0:06:45 led by an emerging group of biotechnology and solar stocks 0:06:47 that put on an extraordinary show 0:06:50 for a new generation of growth stock enthusiasts. 0:06:55 According to S&P Dow Jones’ indices, 0:07:00 457 of the S&P 500’s large cap stock, 0:07:04 roughly 90% of the index components, were up on the year. 0:07:10 More than two thirds of them had gains of 20% or more. 0:07:15 A new car company came out of the woodwork that year, 0:07:18 and its relatively unknown CEO, Elon Musk, 0:07:21 appeared on the cover of Fortune Magazine 0:07:24 as businessperson of the year in December. 0:07:30 Tesla’s stock was up over 350% in 2013, 0:07:33 kicking down the door to a new era 0:07:38 while clearing the cobwebs of the Aught’s decade crisis away. 0:07:42 Tesla’s rise and Musk’s wholly unorthodox approach 0:07:45 to building his business represented the start 0:07:47 of something entirely different 0:07:48 from what we were accustomed to. 0:07:52 This brought out as many haters and doubters 0:07:55 as it did fans and acolytes. 0:07:58 What was clear to both sides, however, 0:08:00 was that something was changing. 0:08:04 Netflix had made its transformation 0:08:07 from the company that mailed you physical DVDs 0:08:09 to a streaming platform that changed 0:08:14 the way we watched television and movies forever. 0:08:17 Its stock rose 300% that year, 0:08:21 becoming one of the hottest growth stories in the market. 0:08:25 Best Buy mounted a notable comeback that year, 0:08:28 notching a 240% return for investors 0:08:31 who hadn’t given up on the company. 0:08:35 BlackRock shares returned more than 50% 0:08:39 as the stock market recovered and the company surpassed 0:08:42 all others in terms of assets under management 0:08:47 with the ETF giant breaking above $4 trillion. 0:08:50 For every negative you could have cited 0:08:54 about the environment of 2013 as stocks reached new heights 0:08:58 and smashed through a wall of skepticism. 0:09:01 There were plenty of reasons for optimism. 0:09:04 You just had to work a little harder to find them. 0:09:09 This was true then and it is true now. 0:09:11 It will always be true. 0:09:14 And despite all that we were worried about 0:09:16 and all of the unimaginable things 0:09:19 that have befallen us since then, 0:09:21 the stock market has been just fine. 0:09:26 Over the last 10 years, the S&P 500, 0:09:29 assuming the reinvestment of dividends, 0:09:34 has returned over 230% or roughly 12% per year. 0:09:39 Today, we are once again contending with all sorts 0:09:42 of other threats to our future wellbeing. 0:09:45 Earnings expectations, we are told, 0:09:49 must ultimately revert lower once companies run out 0:09:51 of price hikes they can put forth, 0:09:53 while the cost of employing people 0:09:57 and running a business will surely increase. 0:09:59 Profits are too high and must come down. 0:10:05 There’s the 2024 presidential election to be fearful of too. 0:10:09 As of this writing, the contest features, quote, 0:10:11 an unhinged insurrectionist criminal tyrant 0:10:16 who wants to wipe his ass with the constitution, unquote, 0:10:19 and a vice president who’s been thrust into the role 0:10:23 after her party chased the bumbling old man out 0:10:25 after having spent the last 18 months 0:10:30 telling us he was perfectly healthy and up to the job. 0:10:34 Surely, a nation of 350 million people could do better. 0:10:37 Somebody has to win, 0:10:38 despite the fact that millions of people 0:10:42 wish their choices were someone, anyone else. 0:10:47 So we’ll vote and live with the consequences. 0:10:50 A few people on the winning side will be elated. 0:10:54 Most of us will simply be relieved that it’s over 0:10:58 or possibly terrified by the prospect of what comes next. 0:10:59 There is more. 0:11:04 We’re surely on the precipice of World War III 0:11:07 with China, Iran, and Russia 0:11:11 allying themselves against Ukraine, Israel, 0:11:13 and the rest of the free world, 0:11:15 which the United States represents 0:11:18 and supports both financially and militarily. 0:11:22 We’ve got thousands of gas-lit students 0:11:27 and their mendacious professors openly supporting terrorism, 0:11:29 kidnapping, mutilation, rape, 0:11:32 and murder on college campuses across America. 0:11:37 TikTok’s China-controlled algorithms gleefully pump 0:11:40 the most divisive content they can surface 0:11:42 directly into the national bloodstream. 0:11:46 Higher interest rates have put the housing market 0:11:49 into a deep freeze. 0:11:52 You can’t buy and you most certainly can’t sell, 0:11:55 risking a 100% increase in your mortgage rate. 0:12:00 The national debt is ballooning by trillions of dollars 0:12:03 as the cost of servicing it all threatens to become 0:12:07 our budget’s single biggest annual line item, 0:12:09 potentially supplanting social security 0:12:11 and defense spending. 0:12:14 Gas prices are high. 0:12:15 The rents are even higher. 0:12:17 Food prices are outrageous. 0:12:20 Hotel rooms and flights are egregious. 0:12:22 And despite the fact that nearly everyone 0:12:24 has gotten a wage hike in recent years, 0:12:29 the cost of living still seems to have outpaced it. 0:12:33 Talk to the average person on the street 0:12:36 and there’s almost nothing good worth saying. 0:12:39 The polls are nearly unanimously negative. 0:12:42 It’s bad and likely to get worse. 0:12:44 What is bad? 0:12:47 What is likely to get worse? 0:12:49 I don’t know, it, everything. 0:12:52 Okay, nice talking to you. 0:12:58 My point is that it’s easy to make lists of the problems, 0:13:02 of everything that could go wrong or get worse. 0:13:05 I could do it with my eyes closed and so could you. 0:13:09 It’s much harder to have the imagination 0:13:14 and the courage to talk openly about what might go right. 0:13:17 What might improve? 0:13:20 What unexpected thing could have a remarkable impact 0:13:23 on how we work and live and change things for the better? 0:13:27 Paradoxically, these types of improvements 0:13:29 come along all the time. 0:13:32 Given the long-term trend toward progress 0:13:36 and convenience and lengthening lifespans, 0:13:37 we ought to be more comfortable 0:13:39 discussing the positives than we are. 0:13:44 But the bad stuff lands like a thud, 0:13:47 generating headlines and invoking worst case scenarios 0:13:50 that drown out the sound of anything else. 0:13:53 The good stuff creeps up on us, 0:13:57 occurring slowly and quietly in the background 0:14:00 as we gradually and unobservantly 0:14:03 grow acclimated to it without even realizing. 0:14:10 It’s rare for us to feel it or remark upon it in real time. 0:14:14 The media has no vested interest in reminding us of it. 0:14:19 But the optimists are eventually proven right, 0:14:24 not every day, but always and eventually, indisputably. 0:14:29 It just takes a while to be able to see it play out. 0:14:31 Even if you don’t believe me, 0:14:33 make your investment in the future anyway, 0:14:37 just in case I end up being right again. 0:14:39 Plant your seed regardless. 0:14:41 If you end up being right in your pessimism 0:14:43 many years from now, 0:14:45 we will all have bigger problems 0:14:48 than what our investments are worth. 0:14:52 Being optimistic all the time is difficult. 0:14:57 But having any other disposition as a default setting 0:15:00 makes little sense when you’re investing for a future 0:15:02 far out in front of us. 0:15:07 – Life is so rich. 0:15:09 (gentle music) 0:15:12 (gentle music) 0:15:16 (gentle music) 0:15:18 you
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holiday as it’s August. 0:01:53 I’m going very European. 0:01:55 As a matter of fact, my other podcast, PIVITCH, 0:01:57 I had to just slip in a PIVITCH yesterday 0:01:59 and I was still August and I’m like, 0:02:02 what’s the point of Scott Free August if you have Scott? 0:02:03 It’s kind of the key to a luxury brand, 0:02:06 which I am not, but is scarcity. 0:02:08 And also the key to living past, 0:02:10 whatever middle of the past today, 0:02:13 is taking a lot of vacation. 0:02:14 Let’s bring this to me. 0:02:15 Let’s bring this to me. 0:02:19 I have basically from the age of 27 to 47, 0:02:22 pretty much didn’t do anything but work. 0:02:24 Cost me my hair, cost me my marriage. 0:02:25 And it was worth it. 0:02:26 It was worth it. 0:02:28 Okay, anyways, still on holiday. 0:02:30 So in place of our regular scheduled program, 0:02:33 we have a real treat for you. 0:02:35 One of the top podcasters in the world 0:02:39 and sort of talk about having a moment. 0:02:42 Here with us today in the podcast studio is Andrew Huberman. 0:02:45 We discuss with Andrew common misconceptions 0:02:47 surrounding health, nutrition and exercise. 0:02:49 And also ask a lot of questions 0:02:52 about testosterone replacement therapy. 0:02:53 Asking for a friend. 0:02:55 So with that, we hope you enjoy our conversation 0:02:59 with the founder and host of the Huberman Lab, 0:03:00 Andrew Huberman. 0:03:04 – Professor Huberman, what does this podcast find you? 0:03:06 – I am currently in Los Angeles. 0:03:07 Where are you? 0:03:11 – I’m in London, but I was telling the team here. 0:03:13 I was asked if there was anyone in the world 0:03:17 I wanted to have on this podcast, who would it be? 0:03:21 And of course I said Barack Obama, but you were number two. 0:03:23 You literally, we’ve been trying to figure this out 0:03:24 for six months. 0:03:26 So we really are excited to have you here. 0:03:28 Let’s bust right into it. 0:03:30 We’d love it if you could start us off with 0:03:33 two or three insights regarding 0:03:35 sort of slang conventional thinking 0:03:36 about our physiological health. 0:03:39 What are some things that we think we know 0:03:43 that we don’t about our health, our nutrition, exercise? 0:03:45 Go wherever you want. 0:03:46 – Sure. 0:03:49 Well, the first one I think will be surprising 0:03:52 only to some, but I think nonetheless 0:03:55 is really important to start off with, which is it? 0:04:00 There is so much evidence, both real world experience, 0:04:03 as well as now just fantastic science 0:04:06 to support the fact that sleep is the foundation 0:04:08 of our mental health and physical health. 0:04:11 And of course, by extension, performance in any endeavor. 0:04:16 Academic, cognitive, musical, mathematical, sports, et cetera. 0:04:17 Why do I say this? 0:04:20 Well, let’s just take the mental health piece. 0:04:24 There’s a beautiful study published not long ago 0:04:26 looking at over 80,000 subjects 0:04:30 where they essentially looked at these people’s relationship 0:04:34 to light during the daytime exposure to sunlight, 0:04:36 exposure to artificial light, 0:04:38 as well as exposure to light at night. 0:04:40 Something that we know disrupts things 0:04:43 like melatonin production, melatonin being important 0:04:46 for making us sleepy, and a bunch of other things too. 0:04:48 And essentially what they found 0:04:52 was that there are two separable components to light, 0:04:54 our sleep patterns and our mental health. 0:04:56 And the basic takeaway is the following. 0:05:00 People who strive to get ample amounts of light, 0:05:03 especially sunlight in their eyes early in the day, 0:05:05 as well as people who just have bright lights on 0:05:08 and get outside for a walk every once in a while, 0:05:09 look outside a window, 0:05:11 step onto a balcony during the day, 0:05:15 have far superior mental health than people that don’t. 0:05:17 In addition, people that suffer from, 0:05:18 and they looked at a huge number 0:05:21 of different mental health conditions, 0:05:26 depression, anxiety, PTSD, manic bipolar disorder, 0:05:28 those people experience diminished symptoms 0:05:30 of all those conditions. 0:05:32 Okay, so that itself is very important. 0:05:33 And it’s also important to point out 0:05:36 that screen light rarely is bright enough. 0:05:38 And indoor lights rarely are bright enough. 0:05:39 If you’re lucky enough to work in an environment 0:05:42 with a lot of big windows, floor to ceiling windows, 0:05:45 and get a few walks during the day, you’re doing great. 0:05:48 But most people are in relatively dark environments 0:05:51 during the day as it relates to this mental health thing. 0:05:53 The second thing that’s really important 0:05:57 is that darkness at night is a separable, 0:05:59 but also important component. 0:06:01 And I don’t think it gets as much attention 0:06:03 and that it really deserves attention. 0:06:04 For instance, in this study, 0:06:08 they showed that people that get nighttime light exposure 0:06:11 suffer far worse symptoms of all mental health conditions 0:06:12 than people that don’t. 0:06:13 And this is separate and different 0:06:15 from daytime light exposure. 0:06:17 This is what’s important to understand. 0:06:19 In addition, people that really strive 0:06:21 to darken their nighttime environment, 0:06:22 dim the lights towards sleep, 0:06:25 keep the sleep environment dark, 0:06:28 enjoying many, many physical and mental health benefits. 0:06:30 In fact, there was a study published 0:06:31 in the Persings and the National Academy of Sciences 0:06:34 not long ago that showed that even a fairly 0:06:37 lower intensity light in the room, 0:06:40 as one sleeps with eyes closed, presumably, 0:06:41 unless they have an eye mask on, 0:06:44 will disrupt morning glucose levels. 0:06:45 It’s a dramatic effect. 0:06:46 And so what is this telling us? 0:06:49 Does this mean we have to be in pitch black at night 0:06:52 and we have to be in bright sunlight all day long? 0:06:55 No, what this means is that we should all strive 0:06:58 to get some sunlight in our eyes early in the day 0:07:00 to brighten our work environment, 0:07:04 maybe include if you suffer from lack of energy 0:07:07 or diminished mood, whatever time of year, 0:07:09 not just in Scandinavia and the depths of winter, 0:07:12 but maybe invest a small amount of money, 0:07:14 and by the way, I don’t have any relationship 0:07:16 to these companies, a small amount of money 0:07:18 into a 10,000 lux LED. 0:07:20 These run $100 or less. 0:07:23 You can even use a ring light that’s designed for selfies. 0:07:25 You’re getting more photons, more light energy. 0:07:27 We know that this improves mental health 0:07:29 and physical health focus and energy 0:07:31 in dramatic ways, sunlight being the best. 0:07:33 And if people are concerned about excessive sunlight 0:07:35 because of sunburn, we can just quickly say 0:07:37 that when the sun is low in the sky, 0:07:39 low solar angle sunlight, as it’s called, 0:07:41 the UV index is very low. 0:07:42 So getting outside and getting some sunlight 0:07:44 in your eyes early in the day 0:07:47 is a absolutely important thing to do 0:07:48 for our mental health and physical health. 0:07:51 And then at night, making some attempt to dim the lights, 0:07:53 if you have to be on a screen, dim the screen, 0:07:54 there are other things one could do, 0:07:56 but dimming the lights and trying to make 0:07:58 that sleep environment dark, 0:07:59 the most inexpensive way to do that 0:08:03 is with a comfortable eye mask or something of that sort. 0:08:04 This seemed like simple things, 0:08:05 but what we’re really talking about here 0:08:09 is a primordial mechanism that is in all of us, 0:08:13 whereby photons, light energy, arriving at the eye 0:08:15 and then passing through the lens of the eye to the retina, 0:08:17 which is the essentially a piece of your brain, 0:08:19 believe it or not, you have two pieces of brain 0:08:21 lining the back of your eyes like pie crust, 0:08:23 activates a specialized set of neurons, 0:08:26 they’re called intrinsically photosensitive melanopsin 0:08:27 ganglion cells, but the name doesn’t matter. 0:08:30 And then they transmit an electrical signal 0:08:32 to an area of your brain that sits right above the roof 0:08:35 of your mouth called the suprachiasmatic nucleus 0:08:37 that sets in motion an enormous number 0:08:40 of things within your brain and body, 0:08:41 the release of certain hormones, 0:08:44 the release of certain neurotransmitters, 0:08:47 things like dopamine, serotonin, certain peptides, 0:08:49 that essentially if you do that in the early part of the day 0:08:52 and a few times throughout the day, that light exposure, 0:08:57 you’re going to be more awake, feel better, 0:08:58 physically and mentally throughout the day, 0:09:02 and you will have an easier time falling asleep at night. 0:09:05 Now, the tricky thing is that light exposure 0:09:07 in the evening and at night, 0:09:10 it doesn’t take very much in order to disrupt, 0:09:12 for instance, your melatonin activity. 0:09:13 There’s a wonderful laboratory 0:09:16 at Harvard Medical School, Charles Eisler’s lab, 0:09:18 that has shown that even 12 seconds 0:09:20 of very bright light in the middle of the night 0:09:21 will quash your melatonin levels. 0:09:24 Now, if that happens every once in a while, no big deal. 0:09:26 But if you’re somebody who is in a bright light environment 0:09:29 at 10 p.m. and having trouble staying asleep, 0:09:31 you know, you go to sleep at midnight, 12 30, 0:09:33 and then you are waking up at three in the morning. 0:09:36 Chances are your evening and nighttime light exposure 0:09:37 has something to do with that. 0:09:38 There could be other things too, right? 0:09:40 Too much caffeine late in the day, et cetera. 0:09:43 And this is a big part of what I believe is related 0:09:45 to the mental health crisis that we’re seeing 0:09:49 not just in young people, but in adults as well, 0:09:50 where people are waking up at the middle of the night, 0:09:51 they’re looking at their phone, you know, 0:09:54 then in the morning, they’re not feeling rested, 0:09:56 then they’re overindulging in caffeine. 0:09:57 And by the way, I love caffeine. 0:10:00 I’m a heavy user of caffeine, I’ll admit that. 0:10:02 Overindulging in caffeine, but they’re staying indoors 0:10:04 and putting on sunglasses, driving to work. 0:10:06 They’re in an environment that’s well lit enough 0:10:08 for them to, you know, carry out their duties, 0:10:11 but they’re never getting this strong circadian signal. 0:10:13 And we know that basically every mental health condition 0:10:15 is made worse by this type of behavior. 0:10:17 And that every mental health condition 0:10:18 that we are aware of is made better 0:10:21 through these simple zero cost adjustments 0:10:24 to our interactions with light. 0:10:26 – So Andrew, now do exercise, 0:10:27 and then I’m gonna ask you 0:10:29 to do the same thing for nutrition. 0:10:32 So with respect to exercise, it’s very clear, 0:10:36 moving our body, okay, exercise is essential 0:10:38 for immediate and long-term health. 0:10:39 And I don’t have to list off the reasons. 0:10:41 Cardiovascular health, which of course relates 0:10:42 to brain health. 0:10:44 As a neuroscientist, people ask me, 0:10:47 what’s the best thing I can do for my brain? 0:10:48 Keep my memory, et cetera, as I age 0:10:51 and be healthier mentally. 0:10:53 And it’s simple, get great sleep every night. 0:10:56 And then I explain one of the ways to do that. 0:10:58 And if you don’t get great sleep for a night, 0:11:00 have some things in place that we can talk about 0:11:01 to adjust for that. 0:11:03 So sleep is the foundation of that. 0:11:05 But then it’s exercise. 0:11:06 We need to move. 0:11:07 What does the literature tell us? 0:11:11 The literature tells us that we should all walk a lot. 0:11:12 Why? 0:11:14 Well, walking is, if you’re doing it briskly, 0:11:16 is that, you know, comes zone two cardio 0:11:18 that we hear a lot about these days. 0:11:22 That’s great for everything for metabolic health. 0:11:24 So managing glucose insulin and mitochondrial health, 0:11:25 et cetera, et cetera. 0:11:28 But we can break things down into a simple formula. 0:11:30 That I’ve been fortunate enough to have followed 0:11:32 for the last 30 plus years. 0:11:36 So I got into this when I was about 16, 48 now. 0:11:37 And it’s the following. 0:11:40 If you do three sessions of cardiovascular exercise 0:11:43 per week, in any format, I would say that you can do 0:11:45 without injuring yourself. 0:11:47 So for me, I like to run. 0:11:50 But actually, if I cycle, I end up with some back stuff. 0:11:51 And so I run. 0:11:53 I like to run or swim. 0:11:55 It’s a little hard to get access to a pool sometimes, 0:11:56 so I mainly run. 0:12:00 If you do three sessions per week, one longer session, 0:12:03 you know, say 45 to 60 minutes long, slow distance, 0:12:04 kind of just, you know, 0:12:06 just barely able to have a conversation, 0:12:08 maybe a little bit faster. 0:12:09 One session that’s a little bit quicker, 0:12:12 maybe 30 minutes where you’re pushing a bit harder, 0:12:14 you know, where it’s hard to hold a conversation, 0:12:16 but you’re not sprinting all out. 0:12:18 And then one session that is very brief, 0:12:21 maybe just 10, 15 minutes where, you know, 0:12:24 you do some sort of sprinting, not all out, 0:12:26 but, you know, 10, 15, maybe 20 seconds, 0:12:28 then rest 30 seconds to a minute, 0:12:32 and then repeat anywhere from five to eight times. 0:12:33 We know that if you do that, 0:12:36 you’re hitting a number of important metrics for health. 0:12:39 First of all, you’re creating that kind of base 0:12:40 of aerobic activity. 0:12:42 You know, this is not gonna prepare you 0:12:43 to be a marathoner, of course, 0:12:46 but you’re getting that zone-to-ish cardio 0:12:48 that’s good for so many things. 0:12:52 The faster clip exercise, which is slightly aerobic, 0:12:53 it was slightly anaerobic, excuse me, 0:12:56 but still mostly aerobic, where you get your heart rate up. 0:12:57 That’s gonna do a number of different things 0:13:00 in terms of your conditioning and your ability 0:13:01 to tolerate these, you know, 0:13:04 kind of more stressful cardiovascular sessions, 0:13:05 not just in these sessions, but in life. 0:13:06 And I’ll talk about that. 0:13:10 And then the shorter bout of exercise, 0:13:14 one day per week, is essentially giving you access 0:13:15 to your VO2 max, right? 0:13:17 It’s improving your VO2 max, 0:13:19 which is your ability to bring more oxygen 0:13:21 into your system overall for any number of reasons. 0:13:22 This is great. 0:13:25 Okay, let’s just translate why all that is great. 0:13:26 Well, first of all, 0:13:28 life involves sometimes taking a long walk, 0:13:30 hopefully with loved ones or a hike, 0:13:32 or you maybe carry a kid or a backpack 0:13:35 or a picnic basket some distance. 0:13:38 It sometimes involves sprinting for the flight 0:13:39 that’s gonna take off. 0:13:41 It sometimes involves doing some, you know, 0:13:43 hard work in the yard or moving stuff 0:13:46 or helping people with suitcases or helping a friend move. 0:13:49 These are like, these transfer to real-life conditions. 0:13:54 And I think the best exercise regimen has this translation 0:13:55 into real-world activities. 0:13:59 Now it’s also vital, and we know this for men and for women, 0:14:02 that we do some sort of resistance training. 0:14:03 That resistance training can be done 0:14:05 probably two or three days per week 0:14:08 and can be very effective done as whole body workouts, 0:14:11 keeping up, you know, three sets per major muscle group, 0:14:13 you know, three sets for quadriceps, 0:14:14 three sets for hamstrings, 0:14:17 three sets for biceps, triceps, back, chest shows, 0:14:18 you know, three times per week, 0:14:19 maybe two times per week 0:14:21 if somebody doesn’t have more time than that, 0:14:24 totally in a session of about an hour, 0:14:26 or you could split things up, 0:14:27 which is I’ve opted to do one day a week. 0:14:30 I, you know, train my legs ’cause that’s very important. 0:14:32 These are large muscle groups to keep strengthening the legs. 0:14:35 One day a week I train the torso, 0:14:36 you know, some pushing and some pulling, 0:14:39 you know, some dips, one to do push-ups. 0:14:40 This is also important that resistance training 0:14:42 doesn’t necessarily mean going to a gym. 0:14:43 You could have stuff at home 0:14:45 or you could just use body weight can be very effective 0:14:47 if you’re doing it correctly. 0:14:49 And then one day a week, 0:14:50 you know, your sort of biceps, triceps, calves, 0:14:53 maybe some additional abdominal work. 0:14:55 Some people like me are fans of training the neck 0:14:57 just for stability and postural purposes. 0:14:58 It’s not about having a big neck. 0:15:01 In fact, you know, I don’t think I’m particularly big neck 0:15:02 relative to my head size. 0:15:04 You know, it’s just, it’s about posture, 0:15:05 which is so important, 0:15:06 especially nowadays with all the texting. 0:15:09 Three days per week takes about an hour per session. 0:15:12 Of course there are, and most people focus 0:15:15 on the aesthetic consequences of this, right? 0:15:17 Because training with resistance 0:15:19 is one of these rare instances in life 0:15:21 where you actually get a window 0:15:22 into what the results will look like. 0:15:24 People, I should just say, 0:15:26 people who are concerned about getting too big, 0:15:27 keep this in mind. 0:15:29 You will never get any bigger 0:15:32 than you appear at any moment in the gym from a workout. 0:15:34 So that, but resistance training is peculiar 0:15:37 in the sense that, you know, like if you do a set of curls, 0:15:39 the biceps get bigger, but that’s transient, 0:15:40 but you’re getting a visual window 0:15:43 and a, you know, a sensory window 0:15:44 into what it’s going to look and feel like. 0:15:47 Should you give it proper rest and nutrition to recover? 0:15:48 That said, I should caution, 0:15:52 I think that the male audience mainly oftentimes 0:15:54 will get very excited about getting stronger 0:15:56 and will throw their bodies out of proportion 0:15:58 and will also make themselves subject to injury. 0:16:00 This is the guy with the big upper body, no legs, 0:16:03 or who is always complaining 0:16:05 because they insist on squatting heavy every time 0:16:06 or benching heavy or whatever. 0:16:09 So, but the point here is that resistance training 0:16:11 is not just about aesthetic changes. 0:16:14 It’s about keeping your muscle healthy as an organ, 0:16:15 which is vital for longevity. 0:16:18 It’s about the nerve to muscle communication 0:16:21 remaining healthy, which is vital to brain health. 0:16:24 In fact, many of the tests for things like Alzheimer’s 0:16:27 and other forms of dementia involve looking, for instance, 0:16:29 at changes in distal muscle size. 0:16:32 So, you know, atrophy of the calves as people age 0:16:34 is associated with age-related cognitive decline. 0:16:36 Now, these things are correlated, not causal, 0:16:38 but we know that people that resistance train in a way 0:16:41 that includes the distal portions of the limbs, 0:16:43 so that the calves, the legs, et cetera, 0:16:45 not just doing some, you know, pressing while seated, 0:16:47 you know, kind of simple stuff, 0:16:49 but more elaborate compound exercises, 0:16:51 being able to jump down off a block, 0:16:52 even if it’s a small block, 0:16:55 maintain cognitive function far, you know, 0:16:57 further into life than people who don’t. 0:16:58 And that has to do with the fact that, you know, 0:17:01 nerve transmission from what we call the upper motor neurons, 0:17:03 the neurons in the brain that control the lower motor neurons 0:17:06 and the spinal cord that then control the muscles, 0:17:09 that whole pathway is vital for essentially, you know, 0:17:11 brain-to-body communication. 0:17:13 And there’s feedback in a way that, you know, 0:17:15 it’s not going to reverse Alzheimer’s, 0:17:17 but it can certainly adjust the slope 0:17:18 of age-related cognitive decline, 0:17:20 which everyone experiences, you know, 0:17:23 in the correct direction, the direction you want. 0:17:24 So there’s that reason. 0:17:26 The other reason is when you have muscle 0:17:27 and you’re exercising your muscles, 0:17:29 even if you don’t have a lot of muscle, 0:17:31 you are improving your metabolic health. 0:17:33 You can eat more comfortably and know that, 0:17:36 especially protein foods are gonna be metabolized 0:17:38 and not converted into body fat stores. 0:17:41 You’re staving off different kinds of insulin resistance. 0:17:42 So what we’re basically talking about 0:17:43 is three days a week of cardiovascular training. 0:17:46 It might sound like a lot, but it’s one one hour session, 0:17:48 a 30-minute session and a 15-minute session. 0:17:51 And then we’re talking about two or three hours 0:17:53 per week of resistance training. 0:17:54 And that might sound like a lot, 0:17:56 but it goes by pretty quickly. 0:17:58 And, you know, there are a lot of different routines 0:17:59 for this out there. 0:18:00 You don’t need to purchase one. 0:18:02 Actually, at our podcast website, 0:18:04 we put a foundational fitness program 0:18:06 that’s zero cost to access. 0:18:07 You don’t even need to sign up. 0:18:08 If you want to sign up for a newsletter, you can, 0:18:10 but you just go to huberunlab.com, 0:18:13 go to newsletter, and just see the foundational fitness 0:18:15 protocol sets and wraps alternatives 0:18:18 for different exercise choice. 0:18:21 It is very important, and this is among the more important 0:18:23 points about exercise that I don’t hear often enough, 0:18:26 one of the best ways to get and stay in excellent shape 0:18:29 is to make sure that you do not get injured. 0:18:31 And this is super important. 0:18:33 It means easing all of this slowly over the course 0:18:36 of a month or two, if you’re not trained up. 0:18:38 Pick exercises, both for cardiovascular training 0:18:42 and for physical training that you can do consistently 0:18:43 without hurting yourself. 0:18:45 And I think people get a little too obsessed 0:18:46 with exercise variety. 0:18:50 Do the same things and use progressive overload 0:18:52 or slow the cadence or really focus more 0:18:54 on the muscle contractions. 0:18:56 Obviously, try and keep boredom at bay, 0:19:00 but one of the major ways that people get hurt, 0:19:01 and I hear this over and over again, 0:19:04 is a friend invites you to try a workout. 0:19:06 And even if you’re not a competitive person, 0:19:08 someone’s like, let’s go try this thing 0:19:10 and you take a class, taking a new class. 0:19:12 There’s always this new class, new workout, 0:19:13 or a friend invited me to do something. 0:19:15 And then you hear about it. 0:19:17 My back thing is out or my shoulder. 0:19:21 You can really throw off your entire health program 0:19:23 with a nagging injury. 0:19:25 So avoid those injuries as much as possible. 0:19:27 And this is true for the young folks and the older folks. 0:19:31 You really, really want to guard your physical health. 0:19:33 Unless you’re a competitive athlete, 0:19:36 your goal is to train five to six times per week 0:19:38 and get a full day of rest once per week. 0:19:40 Your whole life, I hate to say it. 0:19:41 You can take a week off every once in a while. 0:19:43 If you get, usually for me, that’s if I get you, 0:19:46 you know, a cold or a flu or travel or something, 0:19:48 or you’re not sleeping well because of life stress, 0:19:51 but not getting hurt is so key. 0:19:55 So pick exercises that allow you to train hard enough 0:19:56 and not get hurt. 0:19:58 And then the last point about this is I think 0:20:01 about 85 to 90% of workouts 0:20:05 should be at about 85 to 90% of what you could do. 0:20:10 So for instance, not every set to failure, 0:20:14 not every run needs to end with a sprint. 0:20:16 You know, if that sprint is something in you 0:20:18 and you want to do it, don’t go all out. 0:20:20 And then I would say the remaining workouts 0:20:22 could be at a slightly higher intensity. 0:20:25 But don’t worry about keeping some gas in the tank. 0:20:27 Also for people that aren’t athletes, 0:20:30 keep in mind if you do a hard resistance training workout 0:20:32 in the morning, you’ll have more energy, 0:20:33 but in the afternoon, you’ll tend to be tired. 0:20:35 And that has to do with oxygen uptake. 0:20:37 You can get a divert away from the brain. 0:20:39 So there’s exercise, I think in a nutshell. 0:20:41 – And nutrition? 0:20:44 – Yeah, so this is a fun one because never 0:20:47 in any scientific or health community 0:20:50 have I seen more fighting about anything. 0:20:54 It’s almost amusing how much fighting occurs around this. 0:20:56 And I think at the same time, 0:20:59 there’s a key principle that emerges from all of it 0:21:01 that everyone seems to agree on, 0:21:04 which is that it is going to be best to get the majority, 0:21:06 meaning 75 to 100 if you’re really strict, 0:21:11 but 75% or more of your food intake from non-processed 0:21:13 or minimally processed foods. 0:21:16 Now, is it the case that processed foods are terrible? 0:21:20 Well, they can be, but the reason getting the majority 0:21:22 of one’s food intake from non-processed 0:21:23 or minimally processed foods. 0:21:26 So this would be, if it’s in your nutrition plan, 0:21:28 you know, things like meat, fish, eggs, 0:21:33 chicken, fruits, vegetables, rice, oatmeal, pastas, 0:21:38 things like that, is that it sets you up to eat foods 0:21:41 that have macronutrients, of course, 0:21:42 protein, fat, and carbohydrates, 0:21:45 but also micronutrients that you need 0:21:48 and that generally tend to be pretty filling 0:21:50 compared to more processed versions of those things, 0:21:51 packaged version. 0:21:53 Now, does that mean that rice is a, 0:21:56 because it comes in a package, is a processed food? 0:21:58 Well, sort of, that’s, I didn’t say minimally, 0:22:00 but when you produce a sort of single ingredient food, 0:22:03 of course you can put other things in it, right? 0:22:06 Butter, olive oil, nuts in low quantity 0:22:07 seem to be healthy for us. 0:22:11 Nuts and seeds in low quantity, they’re very calorie dense. 0:22:14 And then of course, it’s up to you, or all of us, 0:22:17 to decide you want to be a vegan, a vegetarian, 0:22:18 and omnivore, which I happen to be, 0:22:21 or there are these carnivore folks. 0:22:23 So we, you could be in any one of those categories, 0:22:25 and the first thing I said would still be true. 0:22:28 The other thing that we know is immensely important 0:22:30 is to support the gut microbiome, 0:22:32 because it has relationship to brain health, 0:22:34 immune system health, cognitive function, 0:22:36 and of course we have microbiomes in our nose, 0:22:38 in our urethral, our eyes, you know. 0:22:41 But the gut microbiome is so vital. 0:22:43 And the best way to support the gut microbiome 0:22:46 is to consume one to four servings 0:22:48 of low sugar fermented food per day. 0:22:49 These exist in all cultures. 0:22:54 So things like kimchi, sauerkraut, kefir, Greek yogurt, 0:22:58 again, low sugar versions of these, low sugar kombucha, 0:23:02 you know, it is not necessary to take pill form probiotics. 0:23:03 It’s not, if you’re doing this. 0:23:05 It’s also important to get enough prebiotic 0:23:07 and probiotic fiber, which you’ll get 0:23:08 if you’re consuming fruits and vegetables. 0:23:11 And we all know dark leafy vegetables, 0:23:13 fruit with colorations of berries, 0:23:14 although berries can be kind of expensive, 0:23:17 but if you can afford them some berries, 0:23:20 you know, oranges, you know, the kind of rainbow of fruits, 0:23:24 they, those also include, of course, fiber. 0:23:26 And of course we know that excess sugar isn’t good. 0:23:28 Now people who really understand nutrition 0:23:31 will say, well, it’s calories in, calories out. 0:23:32 It’s the laws of thermodynamics. 0:23:34 So yes, you can lose weight on a, you know, 0:23:36 on a hamburger and milkshake diet 0:23:40 if it’s, you know, less calories than you burn each day. 0:23:41 But you’re going to lack micronutrients. 0:23:42 You’re not going to get enough fiber. 0:23:44 Your gut microbiome will suffer. 0:23:47 And so by eating mostly whole foods 0:23:48 and minimally processed foods 0:23:50 and thinking a bit about the gut microbiome 0:23:53 with respect to fiber, prebiotic and probiotic fiber, 0:23:56 so fruits and vegetables, as well as ingesting 0:23:58 some low sugar fermented food each day, 0:24:01 you’re going to feel significantly better. 0:24:03 Your weight management, if that’s your thing, 0:24:05 is going to be far easier. 0:24:08 There’s also something that is starting to emerge 0:24:09 in the literature. 0:24:11 And Kevin Hall at NIH is doing work in this area, 0:24:13 but people in this general space are starting to talk about, 0:24:17 which is when you eat foods close to their whole 0:24:20 or minimally processed state, 0:24:23 the brain can make the correlation. 0:24:28 It’s a subconscious correlation between kind of food taste, 0:24:32 volume, macronutrient content. 0:24:33 So like if you eat, for instance, a steak, 0:24:37 or let’s say an orange, in either case, you’re tasting that. 0:24:40 There are also amino acids from the steak going to your gut. 0:24:42 Your gut is actually signaling your brain unconsciously 0:24:45 about how much more to eat and signal satiety centers. 0:24:47 And there’s this whole learning. 0:24:51 It’s a system, a neural system, and a hormonal system 0:24:52 that’s very prone to learning, 0:24:54 so that you start to associate your appetite 0:24:56 with how much you need to eat 0:24:58 in order to get the proper amount of amino acids, 0:25:01 which is largely why we eat, I’m going to talk about this, 0:25:05 the amino acid foraging idea, plus essential fatty acids. 0:25:08 And we tend to get better at not overeating 0:25:10 for what we need, right? 0:25:12 We tend to get enough of what we need, but not eat too much. 0:25:15 Now, when you eat foods in combination like a sandwich, 0:25:16 that’s not a bad thing. 0:25:18 I love a really good sandwich, 0:25:21 but it’s harder to ascertain 0:25:24 what you’re getting from each component. 0:25:27 And people often will overeat foods in combination. 0:25:30 So it doesn’t mean you have to eat every ingredient separately, 0:25:32 but there’s a lot of learning that takes place 0:25:33 when one moves more towards whole foods 0:25:35 or minimally processed foods. 0:25:38 And this is, I believe, and this is just hypothesis. 0:25:39 This is one of the reasons why 0:25:41 when people go on an elimination diet, 0:25:44 like they decide to just eat meat or become vegan 0:25:47 and really focus on healthy fruits and vegetables, 0:25:48 that they feel so much better 0:25:51 and often lose a lot of weight. 0:25:54 They must still be obeying the calories in and calories out, 0:25:56 laws of thermodynamics in order to lose weight, 0:25:58 burning more than they consume, that is. 0:26:02 But there’s a learning there at the level of the brain 0:26:04 and the body of, oh, when I eat this, 0:26:06 it’s very satisfying, feels nutritious. 0:26:09 When we’re eating highly processed foods, 0:26:11 there’s a tendency to bring, and we know this 0:26:14 by beautiful paper published a few years ago, 0:26:17 people tend to over consume food. 0:26:20 They don’t register their satiety as well. 0:26:22 So this would be like macaroni and cheese and muffins 0:26:25 and things like that, things that could survive 0:26:27 on the shelf a very long time, 0:26:29 even in their final ready-to-eat form. 0:26:32 And when people eat those foods, 0:26:36 I don’t think it’s just a disruption of metabolic health, 0:26:37 which we know occurs over time, 0:26:40 but also a disruption of the brain-to-body communication 0:26:44 around what we need, what’s satisfying, and what’s enough. 0:26:47 So this business of how the brain and body learn 0:26:49 to associate experience with nutrition, 0:26:51 with what’s healthy for us and what’s unhealthy for us 0:26:55 is both cognitive and conscious, as well as unconscious. 0:26:58 And it relates to the fact that we are largely 0:27:00 amino acid foraging and fatty acid foraging. 0:27:01 It is true, there’s no such thing 0:27:03 as an essential carbohydrate, 0:27:05 but most people, including myself, enjoy carbohydrates, 0:27:08 and they do provide fuel for certain forms of exercise. 0:27:10 And in my experience, I can think better 0:27:12 when I have eaten some carbohydrates, 0:27:14 at least in the previous few days. 0:27:16 We’ll be right back. 0:27:21 Support for Prop G comes from Life360. 0:27:23 We all know the feeling. 0:27:24 You’re about to walk out the door, 0:27:26 you do the phone keys wallet pat down, 0:27:28 and realize your wallet isn’t in your pocket. 0:27:30 It isn’t on the table or the nightstand, 0:27:32 or even yesterday’s pants. 0:27:34 Now what, what are we gonna do? 0:27:37 Next time, skip the hassle and stock up on pile trackers. 0:27:38 You can attach them to your keys, 0:27:40 slip one in your wallet, or anything else 0:27:41 you don’t wanna lose. 0:27:44 You can even put one on your pet’s collar. 0:27:45 Anytime you need to find something, 0:27:48 you can use the Life360 app to either ring your tile, 0:27:51 or track down its location if it’s really lost. 0:27:52 You can even track a stolen item 0:27:53 without tipping off thieves. 0:27:55 There’s also a lost and found QR 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Financial Group 0:30:21 and Evolve Bank & Trust, members FDIC. 0:30:31 So I’m trying, I’m 59. 0:30:34 I look at my health holistically, good on sleep, 0:30:38 okay on nutrition, what kills me is travel and alcohol. 0:30:40 And I wanna break this down. 0:30:41 I’m trying to reduce, 0:30:43 I just drink a shit ton of alcohol. 0:30:45 I believe what Winston Churchill said, 0:30:47 I’ve got more out of alcohol than it’s gotten out of me. 0:30:50 I’m good at it, not an addictive personality. 0:30:51 I’d really enjoy it. 0:30:54 But as I get older, I realize my 59-year-old liver 0:30:55 just can’t process things 0:30:57 the way a 29-year-old liver can process. 0:31:00 So I’m purposely trying to wind it down. 0:31:02 At the same time, just being very transparent, 0:31:04 I love to be high. 0:31:06 And I love the feeling of being 0:31:07 under the influence of substances. 0:31:08 And so I have- 0:31:10 Which substances are your- 0:31:12 Well, I don’t really do a lot of stuff. 0:31:16 What I’ve done is I’ve tried to dial back alcohol 0:31:18 and I’m doing edibles now. 0:31:20 And I do edibles two, three times a week. 0:31:22 They help me sleep, I enjoy them. 0:31:24 I realize there’s no free lunch here. 0:31:26 But if it’s realistically, 0:31:28 if a lot of people you speak to 0:31:30 who are like to think of themselves as high-performing people 0:31:34 but also enjoy the right term is. 0:31:35 I need a more optimistic term 0:31:37 than getting fucked up or partying or whatever. 0:31:40 But recognize they need to reduce their alcohol intake. 0:31:43 One, is there a type of alcohol that’s less punishing? 0:31:47 And two, if you are going to do THC or something else, 0:31:50 is there something that on a risk-adjusted basis 0:31:53 has the highest ROI in terms of feeling good 0:31:55 to minimum damage on your body? 0:31:58 Let’s assume I am never going to be Andrew Huberman. 0:32:01 I’m just not going to be fully optimized. 0:32:04 I want to run at 80 to 90%, 0:32:06 but also quite frankly, 0:32:09 give into a lot of the guilty pleasures around substances. 0:32:13 What is the old Navy of substance abuse 0:32:16 where I get 80% of the high for 50% of the damage? 0:32:19 – Great questions. 0:32:24 And I should say, optimization is something 0:32:27 that we have to think about on a day-to-day basis. 0:32:28 So it is true. 0:32:30 I did rounds of sauna and cold this morning. 0:32:32 I did, I did. 0:32:34 I got up really early, a friend came over. 0:32:35 I haven’t seen him a while ago. 0:32:38 Earlier than I would have liked and did sauna and cold. 0:32:40 And I did train yesterday, but there are days, 0:32:45 I miss days and it happens and life. 0:32:46 So I don’t want to give the impression 0:32:51 that my entire life is geared around protocols 0:32:52 to the point where I don’t do other things. 0:32:54 I went out to dinner with friends last night. 0:32:55 I experienced stress in life. 0:32:57 We could talk about that, like anyone else. 0:33:02 So I would say this, figure out the minimum amount 0:33:05 of alcohol that you’re happy to drink 0:33:08 that makes you feel like you’re living life. 0:33:10 So maybe that’s a drink a night. 0:33:11 Maybe that’s two a week. 0:33:14 Maybe that’s stacking a few more toward the weekend, 0:33:16 whatever’s gonna work there. 0:33:18 And provided that your sleep is good, 0:33:20 meaning we know it’s gonna disrupt 0:33:21 your sleep architecture somewhat, 0:33:23 but provided that you don’t have 0:33:25 excessive daytime sleepiness, 0:33:27 provided that you are not getting 0:33:29 an increased frequency of colds and flus, 0:33:30 you’re accomplishing your work, 0:33:32 I would say you’re doing great. 0:33:35 Especially since you’re visibly fit. 0:33:39 If you can do the three cardio vascular training sessions 0:33:41 and the two, this is the training sessions 0:33:44 that I just described without dissolving 0:33:47 into a pile of cells on the floor afterwards, 0:33:50 even when you’re doing a 85% of intensity 0:33:53 or let’s say 85% intensity of what you could do, 0:33:55 you’re doing great, you’re doing great. 0:33:59 Now, with respect to alcohol, 0:34:01 the stress lowering properties 0:34:05 and the fact that it is often associated 0:34:07 with social events and the fact that 0:34:09 this is related to stress somewhat, 0:34:11 but it also takes our mind off of things 0:34:13 we probably don’t wanna think about. 0:34:15 It marks a transition point 0:34:17 for a lot of people at the end of the day. 0:34:19 It’s hard to dump thoughts. 0:34:21 So like, okay, they have a drink 0:34:22 and then they’re like into the evening 0:34:24 and then next morning they’re up and at it again. 0:34:27 That’s a perfectly healthy and understandable thing. 0:34:28 Now, with respect to cannabis, 0:34:30 so this is interesting, 0:34:32 I just did a four hour interview, 0:34:35 it hasn’t been released yet with a researcher 0:34:36 who works on cannabis. 0:34:38 I’ve done a solo episode about cannabis 0:34:40 and this interview was actually sparked 0:34:43 by a clip that we had put on Twitter on X 0:34:46 and then he jumped at it. 0:34:48 He insisted certain things in it were wrong 0:34:49 and then he came in and we had a discussion 0:34:51 and turns out we’ve realized far more things 0:34:52 than we disagree about. 0:34:54 Let’s put it this way. 0:34:56 There is some evidence, some, 0:35:00 that high potency, meaning high THC cannabis use 0:35:03 may exacerbate or be correlated 0:35:06 with serious mental health issues, 0:35:08 psychosis in some people. 0:35:10 But obviously that’s not happening for you. 0:35:11 Here’s what I learned from him, 0:35:12 which is very interesting. 0:35:15 We hear so much about how today’s cannabis 0:35:17 isn’t yesterday’s cannabis. 0:35:21 You know that weed in the 70s was so much milder 0:35:22 than weed today. 0:35:23 And indeed that’s true. 0:35:26 It’s being engineered, grown, 0:35:28 to have much higher concentrations of THC 0:35:30 or varying levels of THC, 0:35:32 so one can select what they like. 0:35:35 In smoked form or vaped form, 0:35:37 this is what I learned. 0:35:41 People are remarkably good at adjusting their, 0:35:44 let’s just call it like the depth and number of toks 0:35:49 in order to achieve a fairly consistent blood level of THC. 0:35:54 So if they happen to have higher concentration cannabis, 0:35:55 and by the way, I also learned, 0:35:56 and I’ll just pass this along for folks, 0:35:59 ’cause as I learned, I like to pass things along, 0:36:00 there are reasons why it’s, 0:36:02 you’re not supposed to call it marijuana anymore. 0:36:06 There’s a whole story there that’s laid to cultural issues 0:36:09 and some issues potentially related to racism. 0:36:13 It’s very, so just as they say, look it up, 0:36:15 you know, or look it anywhere, right? 0:36:18 It’s interesting, so that’s why I’m calling it cannabis, okay? 0:36:20 Cannabis or weed, so in smoked form, 0:36:22 people seem to be very good at regulating their intake 0:36:27 to achieve a kind of a fairly consistent level 0:36:32 of THC in the blood from one intake session to the next. 0:36:36 Edibles, however, it’s far more difficult 0:36:38 to regulate the blood level 0:36:41 because one can eat a whole cookie or eat an edible 0:36:42 or eat half a cookie, 0:36:44 and so unless you’re using the same source, 0:36:46 this is where people sometimes find themselves 0:36:49 in a very different mental state than they intended. 0:36:51 Now, is there tolerance, is it addictive? 0:36:53 These things are still heavily debated. 0:36:55 I would argue, and this is not based 0:36:56 on randomized controlled trial, 0:37:00 that people who are heavy cannabis users, 0:37:01 when they don’t have their cannabis, 0:37:03 they get pretty cranky 0:37:05 because a lot of people use it to manage anxiety, 0:37:07 and there’s some interesting studies taking place 0:37:09 about looking at genetic polymorphisms 0:37:11 and tendency for anxiety in people 0:37:14 who really prefer cannabis to other drugs 0:37:17 because it does seem to be, for them, 0:37:18 a way to adjust their anxiety. 0:37:21 I will say that taking cannabis before sleep 0:37:22 may help you fall asleep. 0:37:26 It is definitely, Dr. Matt Walker talks about this, 0:37:27 the world expert on sleep, really. 0:37:29 It’s dramatically reducing the amount 0:37:31 of rapid eye movement sleep that you’re getting. 0:37:34 So if you are in a stage, or a phase of life 0:37:35 where things are particularly stressful, 0:37:37 keep in mind that rapid eye movement sleep 0:37:39 is when neuroplasticity and learning occur, 0:37:41 but also where we learn to uncouple 0:37:43 the emotional load of daily experiences, 0:37:46 largely through the experience of vivid dreams. 0:37:48 And this is why when people come off of cannabis, 0:37:51 they oftentimes get very, very intense dreams 0:37:53 because there’s a REM rebound. 0:37:54 So just keep that in mind, 0:37:56 but if your life is in order 0:37:57 and you’re not experiencing excessive stress, 0:38:00 and like you, you don’t have an addictive personality 0:38:03 and you like an edible every now and again, 0:38:04 you know, I never tell people what to do 0:38:06 as long as you know what you’re doing. 0:38:07 I don’t think there’s any evidence 0:38:11 that it’s bad for other aspects of health. 0:38:15 Is it going to make you better remembering things? 0:38:16 Probably not. 0:38:19 If you’re high while you’re trying to learn things, 0:38:20 and there’s a whole literature there 0:38:23 that people often misunderstand where they hear, 0:38:25 well, if you’re gonna learn on under the influence 0:38:28 of a given drug that you should then get tested 0:38:29 while under the influence of a given drug. 0:38:30 And that’s not true. 0:38:33 It just turns out that people who use a drug like alcohol 0:38:37 or cannabis consistently while studying for their bar exam, 0:38:40 just get better at cognitively performing 0:38:42 while under the influence. 0:38:44 But that’s not a reason to do more of it. 0:38:47 So I would say it sounds like you’re in a really healthy range. 0:38:49 And like I said, you’re visibly fit. 0:38:52 Your life, presumably, is more or less how you want it. 0:38:57 And so, edible a couple days a week at the appropriate dose 0:39:00 where you know you’re not gonna get past that threshold. 0:39:02 So don’t let someone give you an edible and say, 0:39:05 hey, this is great and go cookie for cookie 0:39:07 with what you normally take. 0:39:10 That’s a cautionary note. 0:39:12 – I went to this event called Summit. 0:39:14 And it’s sort of the way I describe it as learning man. 0:39:17 It’s a cross between Ted and Burning Man. 0:39:20 I actually can totally see you there speaking. 0:39:21 I’m sure they’ve asked you to speak there. 0:39:23 And I really enjoyed it. 0:39:27 It was on a cruise ship on this Virgin Cruises ship. 0:39:29 And I went up to grab a drink at the bar 0:39:30 and he said, oh my God, someone ordering alcohol. 0:39:32 And I said, what do you mean by that? 0:39:33 And he said, none of these kids, 0:39:35 you know, they’re all in their 30s high performing, 0:39:39 very successful people in the tech industry. 0:39:41 And within about 30 minutes, someone came up to me 0:39:43 and offered me mushroom chocolates. 0:39:46 And what I figured out is there’s this movement 0:39:50 among aspirational, high achieving young people 0:39:53 to substantially reduce their alcohol intake, 0:39:55 but they still wanna be high. 0:39:56 And they’re doing mushroom chocolates 0:39:58 and a mix of all kinds of other shit 0:39:59 that I couldn’t even figure out 0:40:03 or remember all the acronyms. 0:40:05 But they’re basically have decided, 0:40:06 and I think in general, 0:40:07 wealthy people wanna believe 0:40:09 they always have a better mousetrap, 0:40:12 but they had decided I’m gonna nurse one drink 0:40:14 and then I’m gonna do my mushroom chocolates 0:40:15 or something else. 0:40:18 Can you give me a sense or A, that trend 0:40:21 and B, what you think, is there an upside to it 0:40:23 or is this again, wealthy people liking to think 0:40:25 that they’ve found something better? 0:40:26 – But I don’t think it’s just wealthy people. 0:40:30 I think we’re seeing this trend away from alcohol. 0:40:31 Although there’s still a lot of this country 0:40:32 in the rest of the world 0:40:33 to now call it a regular basis. 0:40:35 And in some sense, in a healthy way, right? 0:40:39 Like shot of liquor, you know. 0:40:40 I mean, I love Russian Banyas. 0:40:42 I go to, ’cause I love sauna and cold. 0:40:45 And so if you go to a proper Russian Banya, 0:40:48 there’s not just gonna be sauna and cold. 0:40:51 The Russians there are gonna have a couple shots 0:40:53 of alcohol also. 0:40:56 So they know how to do it for them. 0:40:59 So here’s what I feel obligated to say. 0:41:02 First of all, the clinical trial data 0:41:04 on psilocybin mushrooms for the treatment 0:41:07 of major depression is very impressive, 0:41:09 but it’s still illegal. 0:41:11 And those are high dose sessions. 0:41:15 So those are people ingesting anywhere from two and a half 0:41:17 to in some cases, what’s called a heroic dose, 0:41:20 you know, five grams of psilocybin mushroom, 0:41:21 you know, five grams of psilocybin. 0:41:23 You’re what a colleague of mine who works 0:41:25 on this calls behind the circuit board. 0:41:29 You’re not like doing, I mean, it’s a very, 0:41:30 it’s an experience. 0:41:32 Not necessarily what I recommend. 0:41:34 People can get very scared in there, you know, 0:41:38 you have to work or the clinician, still illegal, 0:41:39 but there are trials. 0:41:42 The studies of higher doses have shown some very interesting 0:41:44 clinical efficacy, but it has not yet passed 0:41:47 into past FDA approval. 0:41:51 Likewise with MDMA ecstasy treatment for PTSD. 0:41:53 Right now that’s a big issue because the FDA is soon 0:41:55 going to decide, but the early recommendation 0:41:57 to them was to not approve. 0:41:59 We could talk a lot about that. 0:42:02 But micro dosing, taking lower dosages 0:42:05 of psilocybin mushroom, which by the way, 0:42:08 just activates a serotonin receptor that seems 0:42:13 to lead to more communication, let’s broadly speaking, 0:42:16 more communication at sort of like resting 0:42:18 network activity is broader. 0:42:20 The brain areas that normally we’re talking 0:42:21 to each other very little, we’re talking to each other 0:42:25 more in that kind of in the default mode. 0:42:27 That’s what some of Robin Cardard Harris’s work 0:42:29 at UCSF and others have shown. 0:42:33 And it very likely enhances the capacity 0:42:36 for neural plasticity for rewiring of neurons. 0:42:38 Now, a lot of people confuse this and think, 0:42:40 oh, well, if they just take psilocybin, 0:42:42 they’ll quote unquote get plasticity. 0:42:45 But we have to remember that plasticity is designed 0:42:46 to be a directed process. 0:42:49 You touch a hot stove, you get one trial learning 0:42:54 by way of neural plasticity that hot stoves are bad to touch. 0:42:56 Okay, that’s directed plasticity. 0:42:57 It’s adaptive. 0:43:00 When you learn a new language, it’s you sit there 0:43:03 and you have to absorb the information, make errors, 0:43:07 adjust for those errors and you get plasticity over time. 0:43:09 When you quote unquote just take a drug 0:43:12 that opens up plasticity and air quotes, 0:43:14 that’s not necessarily a good thing 0:43:16 because you’re making the brain vulnerable 0:43:19 to rewiring in a very non-specific way. 0:43:23 So this is why traditional forms and these modern forms 0:43:25 of clinical trials using psychedelics of any kind, 0:43:28 MDMA, which is more or less a psychedelic, 0:43:29 they were considered one nowadays, 0:43:32 as well as psilocybin, LSD, et cetera. 0:43:35 They’re talking to the person, they do rounds of therapy 0:43:38 with that person off the drug before and after, 0:43:41 the person’s working through something or things. 0:43:42 So it’s directed. 0:43:45 Whereas when you just take something and go experience life, 0:43:50 it’s non-specific opportunity for non-specific rewiring. 0:43:52 Now, there is zero evidence to my knowledge, 0:43:56 there’s zero evidence that microdosing can improve 0:43:59 mental state as it relates to depression or mood, 0:44:01 but people report this quite a lot. 0:44:02 And that makes a little bit of sense 0:44:06 because it augments serotonin pathways in the brain 0:44:08 through one receptor in particular. 0:44:09 But, and if you think about the major treatments 0:44:12 for depression, and these are very controversial now, 0:44:15 but the SSRI, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, 0:44:17 the net effect is to increase the amount of serotonin 0:44:19 at the synapse, the availability of serotonin. 0:44:22 And we know that other antidepressants, 0:44:25 which rely more on dopamine or epinephrine, et cetera, 0:44:28 that relief from depression, 0:44:29 whether or not it’s through cognitive behavioral therapy 0:44:31 alone or drug therapy or combination, 0:44:35 is a neuroplasticity phenomena. 0:44:38 It’s about reorienting the person’s thinking 0:44:40 about who they are, about what’s possible in the world, 0:44:42 about what happened or what’s likely to happen. 0:44:44 It’s about creating more optimism. 0:44:47 So it’s less about serotonin per se 0:44:50 than the opportunity to rewire the brain 0:44:53 and one’s cognitive and emotional status. 0:44:54 So when these people are saying, 0:44:56 okay, I’m gonna not drink alcohol, 0:44:59 and then instead I’m gonna take some psilocybin, 0:45:01 they’re boosting their serotonin a bit. 0:45:02 Presumably they’re also doing this 0:45:07 because the day after drinking is always a bit of a withdrawal. 0:45:10 There’s the anxiety some people refer to, 0:45:12 there’s the puffiness, a lot of it, 0:45:14 might be for aesthetic reasons. 0:45:15 You can’t sleep very well often, 0:45:17 and the sleep isn’t of high quality. 0:45:22 Let’s also face it, a lot of people make mistakes on alcohol. 0:45:24 And whether or not they make mistakes on psilocybin, 0:45:27 I don’t know, I’m sure there’s an opportunity for that. 0:45:29 Jumping off the ship would be a bad idea. 0:45:31 People have done stupid things on psychedelics, 0:45:33 but if you look at the lethal dose 0:45:34 of something like psilocybin, 0:45:38 it’s unbelievably high relative to the lethal dose of alcohol. 0:45:42 If you look at deaths and problems created by alcohol, 0:45:44 including bad decision making, 0:45:49 I mean, these are astronomical rates of bad errors 0:45:53 at every level, professional, interpersonal, 0:45:55 life damaging, life ending, et cetera. 0:45:57 So it kind of makes sense to me 0:45:59 why people would be orienting towards things 0:46:02 that have less of the danger and more, still some, 0:46:05 but more of the kind of state shifting, 0:46:07 being able to relate to people differently 0:46:08 in that elevated serotonin state, 0:46:10 they’re very likely to at least think 0:46:13 or experience a kind of more empathic engagement. 0:46:14 And we’re seeing a lot of this, 0:46:18 the episode that we did about alcohol 0:46:21 in the Huberman Lab podcast, “Humility Aside,” 0:46:23 that was the most listened to podcast episode 0:46:26 for like two years running out of all podcasts, 0:46:27 like all podcasts. 0:46:29 And I was surprised ’cause there’s somebody 0:46:31 who doesn’t really indulge in alcohol much. 0:46:33 I thought, well, we should probably just do an episode 0:46:34 about alcohol, enough people drink 0:46:36 and let people know what they’re doing, 0:46:38 but I’m not anti-alcohol. 0:46:41 And I noticed it unveiled three things. 0:46:43 One, the people who really love alcohol 0:46:45 were pissed off that they had that knowledge. 0:46:48 They’re like, “Ugh, now I know how bad it is for me.” 0:46:50 – I know, I’ve tried to ignore it. 0:46:53 There’s no ignoring the two of you, your answer. 0:46:56 – The second is that people who didn’t like drinking, 0:46:58 maybe if they have less alcohol dehydrogenase, 0:47:00 genetically, maybe they just didn’t like it, 0:47:03 they finally felt validated to say, 0:47:05 “Hey, I don’t wanna drink it terrible for me.” 0:47:07 And then, and that was a big category of people. 0:47:10 And then I think the third category is the larger group, 0:47:13 which is the people who like alcohol, 0:47:16 but they also wanna take care of their health 0:47:17 and they wanna be able to live life, 0:47:18 including maybe have a drink 0:47:21 for a very large number of years. 0:47:23 And they realized that throttling back a little bit 0:47:26 and savoring it, maybe, this is Peter’s thing, 0:47:28 maybe focusing on a higher quality alcohol, 0:47:31 or you asked what alcohols are going to be best or worse, 0:47:33 low sugar alcohols in general, 0:47:34 not because of the sugar per se, 0:47:35 but because of the hangover. 0:47:38 So like brandies and things like that, 0:47:41 cognacs are generally not as good for you 0:47:46 in terms of the hangover component as a clear vodka. 0:47:50 If I drink, I like a white tequila soda and wine. 0:47:52 That’s it, that’s like my thing. 0:47:54 Especially with Mexican food on a hot day, 0:47:55 that’s like nothing better. 0:48:00 – Coming up after the break. 0:48:03 – In my mind, there’s no reason to do TRT. 0:48:07 And a lot of kids, because of social media, 0:48:10 they see the muscles, they see the vasculature, 0:48:12 and they also, if they try it, 0:48:15 they realize that it makes effort feel good, 0:48:17 and it does increase libido vigor, et cetera, 0:48:19 but it will shut down your sperm production, 0:48:20 and it has effects on the brain. 0:48:23 – Stay with us. 0:48:30 – Support for this podcast comes from HIMS, Confidence. 0:48:31 It’s the one thing that a lot of us wish 0:48:33 we had just a little 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podcast comes from Huntress. 0:50:51 Keeping your data safe is important, 0:50:53 however, if you’re a small business owner, 0:50:56 then protecting the information of yourself, 0:50:58 your company, and your workers is vital. 0:51:00 And comes Huntress. 0:51:02 Huntress is where fully managed cybersecurity 0:51:04 meets human expertise. 0:51:05 They offer a revolutionary approach 0:51:07 to manage security that isn’t all about tech. 0:51:10 It’s about real people providing real defense. 0:51:12 When threats arise or issues occur, 0:51:14 their team of seasoned cyber experts 0:51:18 is ready 24 hours a day, 365 days a year for support. 0:51:22 Visit huntress.com/propg to start a free trial or learn more. 0:51:29 – What are your thoughts on testosterone replacement therapy? 0:51:30 – Yeah, I have a lot of thoughts about this. 0:51:33 So I’m 48 years old, I’m very open about this. 0:51:34 I always have been. 0:51:38 I did not touch any hormone augmentation of any kind, 0:51:40 but then at 45, I decided to run an experiment 0:51:44 taking a very low dose of testosterone sippinate, 0:51:46 but also something called HCG, 0:51:48 human chorionic gonadotropin, 0:51:50 which allows you to maintain sperm production 0:51:52 because, well, I intend to have children 0:51:54 and I don’t want to kill my sperm. 0:51:57 And basically, when you take testosterone exogenously, 0:51:58 you shut down your sperm production, 0:52:01 maybe not entirely, but it can be problematic. 0:52:03 So first things first, 0:52:04 and I’m assuming we’re talking about men here 0:52:08 because women are now doing testosterone replacement therapy 0:52:10 and low doses for libido and for vigor and other things, 0:52:12 and women make testosterone too, 0:52:15 but as long as we’re talking about men, 0:52:17 I can’t emphasize this enough. 0:52:20 Young guys, meaning if you’re younger, 0:52:21 I just don’t see how, 0:52:25 unless somebody has a hypogeladol condition, 0:52:27 which you can be tested for, 0:52:32 why males younger than 35 and probably 40, 0:52:34 if you’re doing things to take care of yourself 0:52:38 with sleep, with exercise, nutrition, managing your stress, 0:52:40 keeping your body composition, 0:52:41 you don’t have to be 5% body fat, 0:52:44 in fact, that’s probably bad for testosterone 0:52:46 for most people unless you’re naturally like that, 0:52:48 but keeping your body fat percentage somewhere 0:52:51 between 10 and 15% or something, 0:52:55 in my mind, there’s no reason to do TRT, 0:52:59 and a lot of kids, because of social media, 0:53:02 they see the muscles, they see the vasculature, 0:53:04 and they also, if they try it, 0:53:07 they realize that it makes effort feel good 0:53:09 and it does increase libido, vigor, et cetera, 0:53:11 but it will shut down your sperm production 0:53:12 and it has effects on the brain. 0:53:14 So here’s my stance on this, 0:53:16 and I’ll just again be very open about what I do. 0:53:20 I personally find that the recommended dose 0:53:23 for most people that’s kind of just out the gate 0:53:26 that these clinics do is they’ll say 200 milligrams, 0:53:27 typically of testosterone, sippianate per week, 0:53:30 so that’s one CC, one ML. 0:53:34 That for me would be like catastrophically too high. 0:53:36 I’m very sensitive to this stuff. 0:53:37 So what I highly recommend is people go 0:53:41 and get their testosterone checked and free testosterone. 0:53:44 So the range, the reference range in the US 0:53:46 is somewhere between 300 and 900 in other countries, 0:53:48 I think it goes up to 1200, 0:53:50 but keep in mind there are some people 0:53:55 who have testosterone levels of 500 or 350 or 400 0:53:58 who feel great, their libido is strong, 0:54:01 their recovery from exercise is strong, they feel great. 0:54:04 There are a number of other hormones that impact this. 0:54:06 Don’t look strictly at the number. 0:54:08 So if you’re a young person and you’re interested 0:54:11 or you’re curious about testosterone therapy, 0:54:12 please go get your blood levels checked. 0:54:14 And it is true that unless you are 0:54:17 below 300 nanograms per deciliter, 0:54:19 technically you don’t need replacement. 0:54:23 Now, if you happen to be 500 and you feel like garbage, 0:54:26 please also get your free testosterone checked, okay? 0:54:27 Because if that’s too low, 0:54:29 that means the testosterone you’re making isn’t available. 0:54:32 And if your estrogen is too high or too low, 0:54:34 this is important, well then that could be an issue, 0:54:36 meaning this is a complex scenario. 0:54:38 But what’s happening is people are just going 0:54:40 and getting on TRT and saying, oh, 900 is best. 0:54:43 Now, if someone does decide to explore 0:54:44 testosterone replacement therapy, 0:54:46 there are a couple of things to know. 0:54:49 First of all, get your blood levels checked before, during, 0:54:51 and should you decide to come off after. 0:54:52 Very open about this. 0:54:55 I was sitting, I was doing all the behaviors right, 0:54:56 as best I could. 0:54:58 Also taking a few supplements that we know 0:55:00 can slightly improve testosterone, not in a major way. 0:55:02 Things like Tonga, Dolly, Fidoja. 0:55:05 For me, increase my testosterone significantly. 0:55:07 I was sitting around 750, 0:55:09 but I was feeling some afternoon fatigue 0:55:11 that felt unusual for me. 0:55:13 And decided to run an experiment 0:55:17 of taking basically three 30 milligram dosages 0:55:20 of injectable testosterone sippinate per week. 0:55:24 And I eventually converged on something a little bit 0:55:26 similar to that, spacing it out a bit more, 0:55:28 but essentially 100 milligrams per week. 0:55:28 I feel fantastic. 0:55:33 It definitely makes effort feel great, okay? 0:55:36 Now, the problem is that’s a consequence 0:55:38 of a bit more what we call sympathetic drive, 0:55:41 which has nothing to do with sympathy, emotional sympathy. 0:55:44 It makes you kind of more forward center of mass in general. 0:55:46 It’s a higher level of stress. 0:55:47 You have to be careful you’re still managing 0:55:48 to get great sleep. 0:55:50 I also, as I mentioned, take HCG. 0:55:54 And if people want children at any point in the future, 0:55:58 and you’re gonna take testosterone at any exogenously, 0:56:01 at any level, you have to offset that with HCG, 0:56:03 which is more or less like luteinizing hormone 0:56:04 which stimulates the testes 0:56:07 to continue making their own testosterone 0:56:09 and therefore spare sperm production. 0:56:12 And or you could go bank sperm, 0:56:14 although I would strongly recommend 0:56:15 maintaining your sperm production. 0:56:18 And they’re now at home kits that allow you to discern 0:56:21 if you’re still maintaining sperm production. 0:56:22 Here’s how I feel about this. 0:56:25 Get the behaviors right, sleep, exercise, nutrition, 0:56:29 stress management, explore healthy supplementation. 0:56:30 And I would say the things for supplementation 0:56:32 that makes sense for most people who can afford it 0:56:36 are a quality fish oil, so quality omega-3s, 0:56:39 get above a gram per day of the EPA form, 0:56:42 maybe two grams for a variety of reasons. 0:56:44 Get some form of probiotic, prebiotic. 0:56:46 You could supplement this like, you know, 0:56:48 people know and often associate with AG1, 0:56:50 you can do it that way or you could eat more fruits 0:56:52 and vegetables, you know, I mean, 0:56:56 there are a number of things in addition to AG1 0:56:58 that is why I think it’s good for me. 0:57:00 But again, this is not a sales pitch for AG1. 0:57:03 This is to say, make sure your foundational nutrition 0:57:04 is gonna take a multivitamin. 0:57:07 This is basically what I’m saying if you can’t afford that. 0:57:10 And then I do think that many people can get 0:57:13 what they want without going on TRT 0:57:15 by making sure that you’re training hard, 0:57:18 but not more than an hour per session. 0:57:22 You know, if you’re gonna do TRT, yes, it’s true. 0:57:24 You can probably get a bit less sleep and still recover. 0:57:27 Because normally sleep deprivation over time 0:57:28 would diminish your testosterone levels. 0:57:30 When you’re taking it, it’s always tapped off. 0:57:32 But that’s not good either because you’re challenging 0:57:35 the heart in ways that normally wouldn’t be challenged. 0:57:37 So this could be a whole discussion, 0:57:39 but I really think that people need to pay attention 0:57:41 to the fertility piece. 0:57:43 And then to really take the minimal effect, 0:57:45 if they decide that TRT is right for them 0:57:47 to take the minimal effective dose, 0:57:49 many people think testosterone, good, 0:57:50 estrogen, bad if you’re male. 0:57:53 That is heavenly false. 0:57:56 If you crush your estrogen levels taking, 0:57:59 unless you need to reduce your estrogen levels, 0:58:01 you will have poor memory. 0:58:03 Your cardiovascular health will suffer 0:58:05 because you’re gonna have less sort of pliability 0:58:07 of the capillaries and vessels 0:58:09 that innervate your brain and body. 0:58:10 And in addition to that, 0:58:12 estrogen is critical for libido. 0:58:16 And so a lot of people who take testosterone, 0:58:18 get high levels of testosterone, 0:58:20 then crush their cortisol and/or estrogen levels 0:58:23 using pharmacology, high doses of anastrasol. 0:58:26 They might be better off taking low doses of anastrasol 0:58:28 or, which is a aromatase inhibitor, 0:58:30 you know, aromatase that converts 0:58:32 testosterone to estrogen or not at all, 0:58:36 and letting their estrogen, you know, float up a bit, 0:58:37 but be in the proper ratio 0:58:39 with that now elevated testosterone. 0:58:41 And this is so critical. 0:58:43 You know, maybe it’s because I’m male, 0:58:45 presumably I hear a lot from young guys 0:58:46 who are like, “Hey, should I get on TRT?” 0:58:48 I think that’s a big no. 0:58:51 Don’t do it until you’re doing everything else right. 0:58:53 And I’ll also say, I’ve gone off. 0:58:55 Didn’t experiment when I went off it 0:58:56 and continued to do things right. 0:58:59 And you do feel kind of achier after exercise 0:59:00 and a little bit lousy, 0:59:02 but you can come off these things. 0:59:03 You need to continue to take HCG 0:59:07 to make sure that you continue to make your own testosterone. 0:59:09 You can, you know, reactivate things. 0:59:12 But I think it was the right decision for me at 45. 0:59:15 All my other health metrics, LDLs and suffering in place. 0:59:17 And I will say this, 0:59:20 that it can provide the opportunity to do more work, 0:59:22 both cognitive and physical work. 0:59:26 And I’ll also say that it did not create a big change 0:59:27 in my body composition 0:59:28 because I had always been eating well, 0:59:29 sleeping well to begin with. 0:59:32 And I didn’t change the way that I trained that much. 0:59:34 And I’ve gone off and just kind of maintained. 0:59:37 And so I think it is definitely something 0:59:40 people are paying more attention to and trying, 0:59:42 but they need to be extremely thoughtful. 0:59:43 – What do you think of creatine? 0:59:44 – Creatine is great. 0:59:47 Creatine has a ton of literature for creatine, 0:59:50 mostly for sake of cognitive enhancement. 0:59:52 That the conditions of cognitive enhancement 0:59:54 are sort of unique in those studies, 0:59:56 often like cognitive enhancement, wallet altitude, 0:59:58 or cognitive enhancement after sleep deprivation, 0:59:59 these kinds of things. 1:00:00 But five to 10 grams, 1:00:03 and I say that because people are of different body size, 1:00:04 but it’s 100 kilograms. 1:00:07 So I take 10 grams of creatine per day. 1:00:10 I’ve been doing that since I was 16 or 18. 1:00:11 I’ll take breaks every once in a while. 1:00:15 You’ll gain five to 10 pounds of water weight 1:00:16 within your muscles, 1:00:17 mostly within the muscles when you take creatine. 1:00:20 And then you’ll urinate that out if you come off it. 1:00:21 I mentioned that because a lot of women 1:00:23 don’t want to take creatine 1:00:24 because they don’t want that extra weight, 1:00:25 but it’s mostly muscle weight. 1:00:27 And a lot of women can really benefit 1:00:29 from more muscle and strength. 1:00:31 For all the reasons we talked about before. 1:00:33 But there’s excellent data for creatine. 1:00:34 Keep in mind on a blood test, 1:00:36 your blood creatinine levels will be increased 1:00:37 if you’re supplementing creatine. 1:00:39 So don’t be alarmed. 1:00:41 But it’s very hard to get that five to 10 grams per day 1:00:44 from food sources because a big steak, 1:00:46 a big rib eye steak probably only has a couple of grams, 1:00:48 or three grams of creatine. 1:00:49 How many of those are you really gonna eat 1:00:51 without causing other issues? 1:00:53 What are your thoughts on TRT? 1:00:54 – I started doing it two or three years ago. 1:00:56 I do 80 milliliters. 1:00:57 Is it a week, injection- 1:01:01 – Wait, just ’cause people will get 80 milligrams, 1:01:03 I guess, which is a very low dose. 1:01:05 – Yeah, and the way I would describe it is, 1:01:06 I started doing it three or four years ago, 1:01:09 lost the strength of the gym, lost the muscle mass, 1:01:12 not the same virility or whatever you would call it. 1:01:16 And I just thought, and my trainer said, 1:01:20 “You’re fine, you have what you should have at 56, 1:01:23 “but why wouldn’t you take it back to 45?” 1:01:26 And I took it, and the way I would describe it, 1:01:28 Andrew is, I would say it kinda makes it 1:01:29 three to five years younger. 1:01:30 I just, weird things, 1:01:33 like I felt like my skin was a little bit different, 1:01:34 just a little stronger than the gym. 1:01:37 – Well, I feel better at 48 than I did at 25, 1:01:40 and I think that’s because I take better care of myself 1:01:41 with respect to sleep. 1:01:43 I used to work 100 hours a week. 1:01:46 I would literally, my ex-girlfriend Keegan 1:01:48 was still jokes about this from time to time, 1:01:50 like we went on so many vacations 1:01:53 where I would collapse into the laptop, meant the end. 1:01:54 Like I was working on grants, 1:01:57 where I was working as a junior professor, 1:01:58 before I got 10 years away. 1:01:59 I mean, you’re familiar with this. 1:02:01 I would literally work until I would collapse. 1:02:05 And that’s not healthy, and in my 30s too. 1:02:07 And I had a lot of vigor, but I would say, 1:02:10 TRT can definitely bring that forward. 1:02:12 I think based on conversations 1:02:14 with my colleague, Robert Sapolsky, 1:02:17 it’s clear that it makes you more like yourself. 1:02:19 So if you’re a slightly obsessive person, 1:02:20 it’s gonna make you more obsessive. 1:02:22 If you’re a very competitive person, 1:02:23 it’ll make you more competitive. 1:02:26 If you’re more altruistic and empathically tuned, 1:02:27 it will likely exacerbate that. 1:02:31 It sort of, I think it raises the tide kind of on everything. 1:02:33 It makes you what I call forward center of mass. 1:02:34 So I figure on anything, 1:02:36 we can either be back on our heels, 1:02:38 flat footed or forward center of mass. 1:02:40 And so if it’s work, you’re forward center of mass. 1:02:42 If it’s kindness, you’re forward center of mass. 1:02:44 You feel like you have more to give. 1:02:46 And that’s that elevated sympathetic drive 1:02:47 that we talked about earlier. 1:02:50 – That’s literally the best out I’ve ever heard 1:02:51 for testosterone. 1:02:52 So two quick questions. 1:02:54 You’ve been very generous with your time. 1:02:55 The first is around exercise. 1:02:57 The second one’s a professional question. 1:02:59 My dad, this is one of the nicer moments for my father. 1:03:01 My father was in the Royal Navy 1:03:03 and he had this thing called the Royal Navy Fitness Handbook. 1:03:06 And it was burpees, pull-ups, push-ups, sit-ups. 1:03:08 And we used to do that together from a very young age. 1:03:09 And it really stuck with me. 1:03:11 And I’ve been like you, I’ve been working out my whole life. 1:03:14 And I started doing it with my boys, 13 and 16. 1:03:17 I call my boy on FaceTime, who’s a boarding school. 1:03:19 And I put him through like a eight to 12 minute 1:03:21 kind of multi-dimensional, you know, 1:03:23 push-ups, some Arnold presses with the weights, 1:03:27 assisted pull-ups, cash out with some burpees. 1:03:30 Do you have any thoughts on or advice for dads 1:03:33 who are trying to get their teenage boys into working out 1:03:36 in terms of kind of the right way 1:03:38 to work out your teenage sons? 1:03:41 – Yeah, well, just to make sure I close the hatch 1:03:42 on that TRT conversation, 1:03:44 ’cause he says that an advertisement for it, 1:03:47 there are some health risks of blood pressure, 1:03:50 blood profiles and people need to think about that 1:03:52 and work with a really qualified physician. 1:03:54 – And some cancers, right? 1:03:57 Like prostate cancer, if you don’t monitor it, is that right? 1:04:00 – There’s the belief among urologists 1:04:02 is that it does not cause prostate cancer. 1:04:04 If you have a pre-existing prostate cancer, 1:04:05 it might exacerbate it. 1:04:06 When people have prostate cancers, 1:04:08 they often put them on and endrogens. 1:04:10 – But it’s also hard and brain protective, isn’t it? 1:04:12 What I’ve read, is that true? 1:04:15 – I think if you’re doing TRT properly, 1:04:18 proper dosages for you, it’s gonna be highly individualized, 1:04:20 that you’re taking care of the other hormones 1:04:22 in those pathways properly, 1:04:24 not caution them nor letting them get out of hand. 1:04:28 That you’re taking the fertility thing into consideration. 1:04:30 I think that it can be very beneficial 1:04:33 because it allows you to do the work you need to do, 1:04:35 cognitive work, the cardiovascular work. 1:04:37 I mean, if you’re running more as a consequence 1:04:40 of taking TRT and also able to do all the other things 1:04:43 in your life, then you’re net better off, right? 1:04:46 But people who take it and then get lazy about things, 1:04:48 you are net worse off. 1:04:49 Okay, now in terms of exercise, 1:04:52 I mean, I was fortunate that when I turned, 1:04:55 I was always very physical, soccer, skateboarding, 1:04:56 swimming, et cetera. 1:04:59 I was never particularly excellent at any of those sports, 1:05:02 just good enough to kind of hang in there. 1:05:04 You know, I got a girlfriend when I was 16. 1:05:06 She was a year older than I was. 1:05:08 And I heard their former boyfriend was like a football player 1:05:09 or something. 1:05:11 And I was like this skinny skateboard kid. 1:05:12 So I started doing my pushups and my pullups. 1:05:16 And I will say that, so it was the first girlfriend effect. 1:05:20 And then I found like, whoa, I really like exercise. 1:05:22 I feel like there’s a kind of direct relationship 1:05:23 between effort and outcome. 1:05:25 And I always ran also. 1:05:27 I loved, and I still love running. 1:05:29 So I would say that for young people 1:05:31 and encouraging young people to exercise, 1:05:33 find out what physical activities they really enjoy. 1:05:37 For me, it was running and I did like weightlifting. 1:05:39 So encourage them to play sports 1:05:41 because of the social dynamics 1:05:44 and to be physical with respect to, you know, 1:05:47 just fitness and thinking about fitness. 1:05:49 I think what you described as excellent, you know, 1:05:54 10 to 15 minutes daily even because they’re young, right? 1:05:56 They can recover of body weight type stuff. 1:05:58 So dips, pullups, et cetera. 1:06:02 One of the best pieces of advice I heard recently 1:06:06 and mindset advice, if he comes from a physician 1:06:09 by the name of Gabrielle Lyon, L-Y-O-N, 1:06:12 who’s a medical doctor and she knows a ton 1:06:15 about nutrition and training for men and women. 1:06:17 And her husband happens to be in the SEAL teams. 1:06:19 I have a number of friends in the community. 1:06:20 And she said, you know, 1:06:24 goals aren’t really the way to think about things. 1:06:26 Standards are the way to think about things. 1:06:29 This is very much borrowed from the military community 1:06:32 to think, as you mentioned, Navy a few minutes ago. 1:06:33 When you have a standard for yourself 1:06:36 that you should be able to do five sets of five pullups, 1:06:39 for instance, on your birthday every year, no matter what. 1:06:43 Or that you should be able to do three sets of 25 full pushups. 1:06:45 – I remember the presidential fitness awards. 1:06:46 It was like I used to train for one year, 1:06:48 I had a growth spurt, I couldn’t do the seven pullups. 1:06:49 I didn’t get the number four. 1:06:51 And I like, I’ve spent the whole year 1:06:54 trying to figure out how to get back to seven pullups. 1:06:56 – Right. And so when you have goals, 1:06:59 it’s very easy to reach a goal and then lapse, you know? 1:07:00 But when you have a standard, 1:07:01 you’re always staying above that line 1:07:04 and you have the opportunity to exceed that standard by a lot. 1:07:06 But you never let yourself drop below that standard. 1:07:09 It sets kind of an alarm on the low end 1:07:10 that’s also very high. 1:07:13 And I love this concept because it’s like, 1:07:14 you have a standard for yourself. 1:07:15 You have a standard of behavior, 1:07:18 you have a standard of fitness 1:07:21 that translates to certain activities 1:07:25 so that you never are unable to meet that standard. 1:07:25 And if you’re standard, 1:07:27 and this is a very jockel-willing-ish, 1:07:29 but if you’re standard is, 1:07:32 you’re gonna train every morning at 4.30, no matter what, 1:07:34 except those rare occasions where travel 1:07:35 or something inhibits it. 1:07:37 Well, then you’re doing it no matter what. 1:07:40 Whereas if your goal is to get up at 4.30 and train, 1:07:42 it only sets this high bar. 1:07:45 I’m sure there’s a natural psychology to this, right? 1:07:49 You know, that you need to achieve that thing 1:07:50 and then you check that box. 1:07:55 Whereas the standard means a low end critical threshold 1:07:57 that you stay above, 1:08:00 but there’s really no upper end either. 1:08:02 And I think the best situation is, 1:08:03 well, kind of like the one that sounds like happened for you 1:08:04 and certainly happened for me 1:08:06 where I discovered I love to run. 1:08:08 I mean, the only thing I’m upset about 1:08:09 about training my legs yesterday 1:08:11 is that I generally take a day off 1:08:13 after training legs to recover 1:08:15 and I wanna train again today 1:08:17 and that just feels great, right? 1:08:19 So I would suggest that they do 1:08:21 mainly body weight resistance training. 1:08:23 I know that there’s a shift now 1:08:26 toward allowing kids to do resistance training, 1:08:29 but here’s my feeling about being a young person, 1:08:30 which I was once, 1:08:33 which is that the more variety of movement 1:08:34 and sports that you do, 1:08:37 the better off you are in life and fitness. 1:08:38 All the people I know 1:08:40 who are hyper-specialized in some sport 1:08:44 don’t seem to stay with that sport a long time. 1:08:46 They get injured, they’re not fit. 1:08:48 I mean, the gymnasts are the exception 1:08:48 because they seem to do 1:08:50 all the different dynamic movements. 1:08:53 They’re strong and they have speed and they have agility. 1:08:54 But I think it’s great fun 1:08:55 to try a bunch of different sports. 1:08:57 And then if you’re an athlete, 1:08:58 sure, focus on one, 1:09:00 but with respect to fitness, 1:09:03 I’m not a huge fan of really young people’s, 1:09:05 you know, lifting heavy weights in the gym. 1:09:07 And I’m gonna get a lot of flack for this 1:09:10 because Olympic lifting is sport in its own right, 1:09:13 but I didn’t really start lifting heavy 1:09:14 until I was in my 20s. 1:09:16 And that for me was like, 1:09:19 I’ve never gone below three repetitions of anything. 1:09:21 So I’ve never done a single rep max of anything. 1:09:22 And people always go, there’s no way that’s true. 1:09:24 And it’s absolutely true. 1:09:25 I’m interested in using it as a tool 1:09:27 to accomplish something, 1:09:29 strengthen in some cases hypertrophy 1:09:32 and staying healthy is my main focus now. 1:09:34 And I will say this, 1:09:36 I got laughed at, teased in college 1:09:39 because I’d be out for a run on mornings 1:09:40 where everyone else was doing their kind of Sunday, 1:09:42 fun day drinking. 1:09:44 I got teased for studying 1:09:46 when other people were kicking back. 1:09:49 When I was a professor and I would go to meetings, 1:09:51 I would sneak off to the gym at lunch hour 1:09:54 ’cause I couldn’t sit all day without losing my mind. 1:09:57 And one day I was in the gym at Cold Spring Harbor laboratories 1:09:59 in New York, this is where people go for meetings. 1:10:01 And it’s kind of a science summer camp. 1:10:05 And one of the most successful biologists in the world 1:10:07 still came into the gym and I was like, 1:10:08 oh, and I was sort of embarrassed. 1:10:09 Like I’d been caught doing something. 1:10:12 And I said, wait a second, this is your meeting. 1:10:13 And he said, yeah, you know, 1:10:15 I can’t be in these meetings all day. 1:10:16 It drives me crazy. 1:10:17 And I looked at him and I’m like, okay, 1:10:18 this guy has great posture. 1:10:19 He’s fit. 1:10:21 He was in his mid sixties then. 1:10:22 He’s still that way now. 1:10:25 I thought to myself, okay, here I’ve been like 1:10:27 guiltfully running off to exercise to take care of myself. 1:10:29 The culture has changed a little bit now. 1:10:33 But if you’re in whatever dominant culture is around you, 1:10:34 beware, that’s what I always say. 1:10:37 Even if you’re hanging out with rebels, beware, right? 1:10:40 You know, it’s good sometimes to rebel against the rebels, 1:10:41 right? 1:10:42 Just keep it. 1:10:44 It’s not just about independence of thought. 1:10:46 It’s that develop habits that you know are good for you. 1:10:49 And when the dominant culture is, you know, 1:10:51 dude, why are you working out or why are you studying? 1:10:54 Like, trust me, and you can tell your sons this. 1:10:56 I know you know this for yourself in five, 10 years. 1:10:58 People are gonna be coming to you for advice 1:11:00 because they’re the ones carrying 40 pounds of extra weight 1:11:03 or 20 pounds of extra weight or their libido is shot 1:11:05 or they’re wondering why they hate their job 1:11:06 or their relationship. 1:11:08 And I’m not saying that I had all the answers, 1:11:10 but I’ve noticed that the people who are willing 1:11:12 to take really good care of themselves 1:11:13 and not in a vain way. 1:11:14 This isn’t about vanity. 1:11:17 It’s taking care of yourself so that you can do more 1:11:21 in the world for other people, especially, 1:11:21 but also for yourself. 1:11:24 Like be the strong one who can help other people. 1:11:27 And once your sons, I think, realize that they’re gonna be 1:11:30 the best version of themselves for themselves, 1:11:32 but also they’re gonna be the go-to person 1:11:35 that can help everybody in whatever domain 1:11:36 they happen to be in. 1:11:38 I think that feedback loop is so powerful 1:11:42 because you feel like, wow, I understand what self-care is. 1:11:45 I can refill the gas tank just through these behaviors. 1:11:49 – Last question, at the end of in the ’40s, 1:11:52 after World War II, physicists became celebrities, 1:11:54 Einstein, Teller, Oppenheimer. 1:11:56 I feel like we’re having a little bit of that moment 1:11:58 where neuroscientists, I think of you and Sam Harris, 1:12:01 are becoming famous. 1:12:03 And Sam, more on the philosophical side, 1:12:06 you more on the optimization of almost like 1:12:08 how to live a better life through fitness 1:12:11 or just optimizing, I mean, thoughtful about your nutrition, 1:12:13 your sleep, your fitness. 1:12:14 I get, I don’t know if you get these calls. 1:12:16 I get these calls from other faculty at other universities 1:12:18 and they, in as polite a way as possible, 1:12:22 try to say to me, my research and domain expertise 1:12:24 has so much more heft and depth than yours, 1:12:27 yet you’re so much more successful than me. 1:12:30 Can you advise me on what I need to do? 1:12:32 You’ve got to be one of the most famous 1:12:34 and successful, most influential, 1:12:39 creating great economic security for you and your family. 1:12:42 Can you give any advice around what were some, 1:12:44 if there are any hacks or best practices? 1:12:46 We’ve talked a lot about optimizing for fitness. 1:12:50 Talk about now optimizing for someone who is credentialed, 1:12:54 who has expertise, but wants to be Andrew Huberman. 1:12:57 What are the two or three hacks, platforms, 1:13:00 best practices that took you from a neuroscientist 1:13:04 to someone who’s had a really remarkable influence? 1:13:05 – Thanks for the question. 1:13:08 So my dad’s a physicist and so I grew up hearing 1:13:10 about the golden age of physics and, you know, 1:13:13 Feynman and like Gelman and all that. 1:13:15 And I think the interest in physics is, 1:13:17 you know, physics is everywhere, right? 1:13:21 And so it’s universal and explained correctly 1:13:24 is really enchanting. 1:13:26 The brain and neuroscience is everything, right? 1:13:29 It’s sadness, it’s grief, it’s happiness, it’s depression, 1:13:33 it’s addiction, it’s fitness, it’s all of that. 1:13:34 And so it’s universal. 1:13:36 And I would say that we’re now also entering the age 1:13:41 of where math and AI are gonna become really important 1:13:42 for public discourse. 1:13:45 So I would say the following. 1:13:48 And as a fellow academic, you know that, you know, 1:13:50 when one sticks their neck out there publicly, 1:13:52 like I understand there are gonna be people 1:13:55 in the academic community who are happy about that 1:13:57 and Stanford has been immensely supportive, 1:13:58 immensely supportive. 1:14:00 And I’m very grateful for that. 1:14:01 There will be people who are critical 1:14:03 around specific points or the general idea 1:14:06 of somebody doing what I do or what you do. 1:14:08 There will be people who feel that way 1:14:10 because of jealousy, there will be people who feel that way 1:14:12 because they genuinely feel like it’s not being packaged 1:14:14 or delivered in the way that they would prefer. 1:14:16 And that’s all fine and good. 1:14:17 I would say point number one is 1:14:19 if you’re going to be public facing, 1:14:22 as you know, you’re not gonna satisfy all those people. 1:14:23 You’re just not. 1:14:26 At the same time, I think people can feel intention. 1:14:29 You know, I think people sometimes focus, 1:14:31 there’s kind of a gravitational pull around 1:14:35 like cold plunges and supplements and weight lifting 1:14:38 that I think sometimes interesting topics 1:14:39 that I really enjoy. 1:14:41 And then each one has an interesting science 1:14:44 and then discussion around it, which I thoroughly enjoy. 1:14:46 But I think sometimes they overlook the fact 1:14:49 that like 90% of what I talked about on the podcast 1:14:52 is about neural mechanisms, endocrine mechanisms. 1:14:54 I’ve worked on cold physiology 1:14:57 and to try and teach biology and the package 1:15:00 in sort of protocols for health 1:15:02 and then teach protocols for health 1:15:04 in a way to people who are interested in that. 1:15:06 And then also, you know, get them in a bit enchanted, 1:15:08 hopefully about biology. 1:15:10 But the number one takeaway for people 1:15:12 that want to do some public facing work 1:15:17 or to allow people to appreciate what they do 1:15:20 is they, I can’t emphasize this enough 1:15:22 if I could like put this on a billboard in Times Square, 1:15:25 I would accept no one who looks at billboards anymore. 1:15:29 You have to be the pure version of yourself. 1:15:32 And this is why not everyone does this. 1:15:34 So I have, I’m gonna sound like a name dropper 1:15:35 but I’m very fortunate to be close friends, 1:15:36 very close friends. 1:15:38 We communicate daily with Rick Rubin, 1:15:41 like the Rick Rubin from NYU, right? 1:15:42 For the start of record label, 1:15:44 it worked out well at NYU. 1:15:45 And Rick understands this, 1:15:48 that there’s a certain energy that people have 1:15:51 when they’re really engaging in things in its pure form. 1:15:53 They’re not thinking, are people gonna like this song? 1:15:57 Is it gonna be top chart song like the last one? 1:15:58 Are people gonna like this podcast? 1:16:01 It’s just like, I’m a very curious person 1:16:03 and I’ve lived a life of adventure. 1:16:05 One of my heroes, I have several, 1:16:08 Joe Strummer being one of them 1:16:10 and the great Oliver Sacks being another, right? 1:16:13 A neurologist, public facing author 1:16:14 who was also ridiculed by the way 1:16:17 for doing what he did until he became famous enough 1:16:19 that then he got appointments at multiple universities. 1:16:20 They kind of came back for it. 1:16:22 Very interesting story. 1:16:24 And Oliver was a very curious person. 1:16:26 They once said, it’s in his book. 1:16:28 It says, you know, Oliver will go far 1:16:30 provided he doesn’t go too far. 1:16:31 He was a methamphetamine addict. 1:16:32 He was interested in bodybuilding. 1:16:34 He was also a closet homosexual 1:16:36 and that came out at the end when he, you know, 1:16:39 and he had a bunch of things about his personal life 1:16:43 that explained sort of, you know, not just that 1:16:44 but explained who he was in a big way 1:16:47 but up until then he was just Oliver being Oliver. 1:16:48 He loved sea creatures. 1:16:51 He was always talking about the things he loves. 1:16:54 I’m a very curious person and I love adventure. 1:16:56 And I grew up basically 1:16:58 because of my family structure changing 1:17:01 in a big pack of guys, some female friends as well. 1:17:02 That’s kind of driven my life. 1:17:05 I’ve interacted with people at the kind of extremes 1:17:07 of adventure and extremes of career 1:17:09 in fitness and health and science. 1:17:12 And so what I bring forward is my, 1:17:16 it feels innate desire to learn, organize 1:17:20 and disperse information that I find very useful 1:17:22 for mental health, physical health and performance 1:17:25 along those adventures that are just simply my life. 1:17:28 So I’m just being Andrew Huberman. 1:17:30 And I’ll come right out and say, you know, 1:17:31 people say all sorts of things. 1:17:32 They’ve said all sorts of things about me, 1:17:35 good and bad and everything in between. 1:17:37 But what I just said, it like really describes 1:17:39 who I am at my essence. 1:17:43 And if somebody is like an entomologist 1:17:48 or works on, I don’t know, like a lipid signaling 1:17:51 in the gut or whatever people study, 1:17:55 if they can tap into like the essence of why they do that 1:17:58 and then teach it from that pure place, 1:18:01 they will be potentially the biggest podcast in the world, 1:18:03 the best selling book in the world. 1:18:05 So it’s not so much the subject matter 1:18:07 as the energy that one brings to it, 1:18:10 but that energy as Rick has pointed out over and over again, 1:18:11 and this is why he’s so successful, 1:18:13 cannot be manufactured. 1:18:15 Whatever it is that makes you, 1:18:18 you, your relationship with your father, 1:18:21 your interest in fitness, your appreciation 1:18:23 for what young people are now going through 1:18:25 and the challenges they face, the desire to like, 1:18:28 you’re just being Scott in the world. 1:18:30 And that’s why people orient toward you. 1:18:31 And so these colleagues that are like, 1:18:35 wait, why is it that Huberman and Galloway and Harris 1:18:37 are like, well, ’cause Sam’s just being Sam. 1:18:39 So I think you just, 1:18:42 it’s the enthusiasm and the energy that one brings to it. 1:18:45 And if there’s a universal quality to that, 1:18:48 then sure, it will have bigger reach. 1:18:51 But ultimately, like this is kind of how all public facing 1:18:54 intellectuals, scientists, health, you know, 1:18:55 they call us influencers, 1:18:57 but that’s kind of like unfair at some level 1:18:59 because it’s really about like the passion 1:19:01 and energy that you bring to it. 1:19:02 This is a long-winded question. 1:19:03 You asked for a half, 1:19:05 but I would say these people need to be them 1:19:06 and if being them is sitting in their office 1:19:08 and kind of like grinding away 1:19:10 on why someone else has something and they don’t, 1:19:11 well, then guess what? 1:19:12 They’re exactly where they belong. 1:19:14 – Andrew Huberman is a neuroscientist 1:19:17 and tenured professor in the Department of Neurobiology 1:19:20 and by courtesy, psychiatry and behavioral sciences 1:19:22 at Stanford School of Medicine. 1:19:24 His laboratory’s most recent work focuses 1:19:27 on the influence of vision and respiration on brain states, 1:19:29 such as fear and high attention focus 1:19:31 and developing rapid and effective tools 1:19:34 for mitigating stress, improving sleep 1:19:36 and other physiological metrics. 1:19:39 Andrew’s popular podcast, The Huberman Lab Podcast, 1:19:42 is often ranked in the global top 10 1:19:44 and frequently listed as the number one show 1:19:47 in science, education and health and fitness. 1:19:50 He joins us from Los Angeles. 1:19:52 Andrew, like there’s a lot of big podcasts 1:19:54 that are having a lot of influence. 1:19:58 I think having an impact around people’s physical fitness 1:20:00 and feeling good about themselves 1:20:03 and feeling strong and feeling attractive 1:20:04 and feeling healthy. 1:20:06 I really think what you’re doing is profound. 1:20:10 So it’s just great to see your ascent and the influence. 1:20:14 I think you’re doing really good work 1:20:18 and it feels like you are exactly what you said. 1:20:20 It’s so rewarding to see someone doing exactly 1:20:22 what they should be doing and I think you’re doing that. 1:20:24 So really appreciate your time. 1:20:25 – Oh, thank you. 1:20:28 I’ve really enjoyed that conversation. 1:20:31 I hope we can further it on or off, Mike, in the future. 1:20:35 And I think of you as somebody who’s posing those conversations 1:20:36 in a way that has an optimism to it. 1:20:39 Like there are solutions and I’m an optimist too. 1:20:40 So that resonates. 1:20:41 So thanks so much for hosting me. 1:20:42 I really enjoyed it. 1:20:43 – It’s our pleasure, Andrew. 1:20:44 Thanks, brother. 1:20:50 – This episode was produced by Caroline Shagren. 1:20:52 Jennifer Sanchez is our associate producer 1:20:54 and Drew Burroughs is our technical director. 1:20:55 Thank you for listening to the Prop G Pub 1:20:57 from the Vox Media Podcast Network. 1:20:59 We will catch you on Saturday 1:21:01 for No Mercy, No Malice as read by George Hahn. 1:21:04 And please follow our Prop G Markets pod 1:21:06 wherever you get your pods for new episodes 1:21:08 every Monday and Thursday.
Andrew Huberman, a neuroscientist and tenured professor in the department of neurobiology at Stanford University, and host of The Huberman Lab Podcast, joins Scott to discuss the most important things we need to know about our physiological health. We also learn about testosterone replacement therapy. Follow Dr. Huberman, @hubermanlab.
0:00:02 (upbeat music) 0:00:05 Support for this special series comes from Mint Mobile. 0:00:07 If you’re looking for expert insights 0:00:09 on matters of business, career, and family, 0:00:11 you’ve come to the right place. 0:00:14 Office hours are open and ProfG is in. 0:00:16 Now, if you’re looking for advice on how to save 0:00:18 on your cell phone bill each month, 0:00:20 you’ve come to the right place again. 0:00:22 You might not expect a cell provider 0:00:24 to be the expert in saving money, 0:00:28 but Mint Mobile offers premium plans at an affordable price. 0:00:32 Head to mintmobile.com/profg to learn more 0:00:33 and stick around for parenting advice 0:00:36 from another unexpected expert. 0:00:37 A free diver? 0:00:43 – Welcome to the final episode of the ProfG pod special series 0:00:46 featuring some of our favorite office hours moments. 0:00:47 In last week’s episode, 0:00:49 we featured office hours best of career 0:00:51 and answered your questions surrounding 0:00:52 how to ask for a promotion at work, 0:00:54 when and if you should ditch your full-time job 0:00:55 for your side hustle 0:00:57 and went to quit your job entirely. 0:00:59 (beep) 0:01:01 Establish a relationship with a mentor or your boss 0:01:04 such that it’s informal enough, such you could say, 0:01:06 which of my expectations be around a bonus 0:01:09 or how are bonuses evaluated? 0:01:11 If you want economic security, 0:01:14 find something that satisfies you to the extent 0:01:16 that you don’t feel the need to do a side hustle 0:01:18 and go all in on it. 0:01:20 Once you’re out of the job market for longer than a year, 0:01:21 you begin to smell. 0:01:22 I know how terrible that sounds. 0:01:23 And I was feeling like, what is wrong 0:01:25 and your skills begin to atrophy. 0:01:28 Today, you’ll hear best of parenting. 0:01:29 After that, we’ll be featuring an interview 0:01:32 with Dr. Shafali, a New York Times bestselling author 0:01:35 of “The Conscious Parent” and “The Awakened Family.” 0:01:38 She’s also a clinical psychologist, parenting expert, 0:01:40 and international speaker and a wisdom teacher 0:01:44 who integrates Eastern philosophy with Western psychology. 0:01:46 So with that, first question. 0:01:48 – Hi, Scott, this is Jen calling from Toronto. 0:01:50 I have a 12-year-old daughter. 0:01:52 And this is the first year that she’s had her on cell phone. 0:01:55 And it seems that this is the year that, quote unquote, 0:01:59 everyone in her class is on social media. 0:02:00 She doesn’t have social media yet 0:02:04 and hasn’t really expressed much of an interest. 0:02:06 However, my husband and I have told her 0:02:09 that when she does want it, she should let us know. 0:02:11 And we will talk to her about it 0:02:13 and introduce her to it together. 0:02:16 So I would love your thoughts on two things. 0:02:18 One is, how would you recommend we introduce her 0:02:20 to social media? 0:02:22 What warnings or guiding principles 0:02:24 would you share with her? 0:02:28 And how would you frame the potential dangers for her? 0:02:31 And number two, what rules and monitoring 0:02:34 would you put into place around her usage 0:02:36 in the first couple of years? 0:02:37 And would you be transparent with her 0:02:40 about how we’re going to monitor her activity? 0:02:41 Would love your thoughts on that. 0:02:43 Thanks so very much. 0:02:44 Really appreciate it. 0:02:47 – Jen from Toronto, thanks so much for the question. 0:02:50 And let me be clear, we have not figured this out. 0:02:52 One of my sons developed device addiction. 0:02:53 You’d think I’d be the last person 0:02:55 that would let that happen 0:02:56 ’cause I braille on these companies 0:02:58 and yet we woke up one day 0:02:59 and realized our son was really struggling 0:03:02 and it was because of device addiction. 0:03:06 In addition, I think that both my kids are, 0:03:10 especially one of them is showing semi-addictive behavior 0:03:12 to social media platforms. 0:03:14 The research is this clear. 0:03:15 It’s worse for you, crack frankly, 0:03:18 ’cause you have girls, boys bully physically 0:03:20 and verbally, girls bully relationally, 0:03:21 and we have put these nuclear weapons in our hands 0:03:22 called the smartphone. 0:03:26 And once social went on mobile in 2012, 0:03:28 the hospital admissions for self-cutting, self-harm, 0:03:30 teen depression, teen suicide, 0:03:32 skyrocketed for girls 0:03:36 and escalated dramatically for boys. 0:03:39 So my first piece of advice is if your daughter 0:03:41 is not asking for these things, 0:03:46 my general advice is to keep them off of it 0:03:48 as long as possible. 0:03:50 And here’s the hard part. 0:03:52 When people say, well, okay, 0:03:55 your kids struggling from social media or depressed, 0:03:56 that’s your fault. 0:03:58 They recommend the dosing. 0:04:00 They recommend, well, it’s about parental involvement. 0:04:02 Anyone who says that doesn’t have kids 0:04:05 because the most recent research, 0:04:08 I believe it’s from Gene Twenge and Jonathan Hyde, 0:04:10 is there’s something called the cohort effect. 0:04:14 And that is once everyone is on SNAP, 0:04:15 when you’re the kid that’s not on it 0:04:17 because you don’t have to modulate it 0:04:19 or it really attacks your self-esteem, 0:04:21 you in fact become very depressed 0:04:24 because you are ostracized and you are isolated 0:04:26 and sequestered from the rest of your peer groups. 0:04:28 So there’s kind of no winning. 0:04:32 And what Professor Hyde has advocated for, 0:04:33 and I think is absolutely right, 0:04:36 is to have schools ban phones up until a certain age. 0:04:38 Now, assuming at some point, 0:04:40 she does enter the brave new world 0:04:43 of smartphones and social, 0:04:44 I can tell you what we do. 0:04:46 And that is they are not allowed to take their phones 0:04:48 into the room at night. 0:04:49 There’s been a lot of studies showing 0:04:52 that a lot of kids or the number of teens 0:04:54 who are sleep-defrived has escalated 0:04:56 because their phone is next to them, 0:04:57 they hear buzz, they pick it up, 0:04:59 they start talking to their friends, 0:05:02 and it goes downhill from there. 0:05:04 Also, we try and limit the amount of screen time, 0:05:07 we try, we’re not great at it. 0:05:09 And also, and this sounds very 1984, 0:05:12 and initially we didn’t do it, 0:05:15 but now we do it, we check their accounts 0:05:16 and we check their content. 0:05:19 I have wonderful boys that are really well-behaved, 0:05:22 and I’ve had already two incidences, 0:05:27 one involving bullying and two around really ugly language 0:05:31 that my kids were not directly involved in, 0:05:32 but part of a circle. 0:05:34 And it’s just, I mean, 0:05:38 wouldn’t you like to find the people who invented this shit 0:05:40 and just kick them in the nuts a few thousand times? 0:05:43 It really has been a net negative. 0:05:46 I think it’s especially bad for girls 0:05:48 because the notion, 0:05:50 I don’t think we can even imagine what it’s like 0:05:51 to be faced with your full self, 0:05:55 to be presented with your full self 24 by seven. 0:05:56 And then you have algorithms 0:05:58 that encourage you to say outrageous things 0:06:01 or that overly sexualize young girls, 0:06:03 specifically Instagram. 0:06:06 I mean, the deck is just so stacked against them. 0:06:08 For me, what I try and do with my boys, 0:06:09 ’cause I think my boys have an easier time 0:06:12 relating to me on certain things than they do their mother. 0:06:14 I sit ’em down, I try and sit ’em down once a week. 0:06:15 I’m like, what’s going on with you? 0:06:16 Are you doing okay? 0:06:20 And what I try to communicate is that, 0:06:24 look, if something bad happens online, this is the deal. 0:06:25 I’m gonna try and be generous 0:06:27 and not judge you and not get mad at you. 0:06:29 Maybe you do something really stupid here 0:06:30 and something bad happens. 0:06:33 I’m gonna give you a bit of a hall pass on this stuff. 0:06:34 And in exchange for that hall pass, 0:06:36 you’re gonna come to me when something happens 0:06:37 that upsets you. 0:06:40 Because what you don’t want, 0:06:42 and we’re real tragedy strikes here, 0:06:45 is that something bad happens online 0:06:47 and the kids suffer in isolation 0:06:49 and the parents don’t even know about it. 0:06:51 They don’t even know about it. 0:06:55 A kid gets bullied online, starts having suicidal ideation, 0:06:56 goes down a rabbit hole at night 0:06:59 and the parents don’t even know what is going on. 0:07:02 Because if your kid develops an addiction to meth 0:07:07 or alcohol or shoplifting, you find out about it. 0:07:09 I mean, there’s just certain externalities, 0:07:11 there’s certain functions of those behaviors, 0:07:13 there’s certain ramifications. 0:07:14 The kid has an addiction to alcohol. 0:07:17 Before you know it, you’re gonna figure it out, right? 0:07:17 So you can intervene. 0:07:21 That’s the dangerous thing about these insidious devices 0:07:24 is that a lot of times the bullying, 0:07:26 the mental health issues can pop up 0:07:29 and get very bad very fast without you even knowing. 0:07:33 So let me finish where I started. 0:07:34 I know our household hasn’t gotten this figured out. 0:07:38 And congratulations, if she’s not asking for it, 0:07:41 I just don’t think you’re gonna regret 0:07:43 your 12-year-old daughter not having a smartphone 0:07:44 or being on social. 0:07:47 If she shows up a little bit late to it, 0:07:49 I showed up a little bit late to alcohol and drugs. 0:07:51 I enjoyed both of those things, 0:07:53 but I’m glad I didn’t do any of those things 0:07:55 until I was in college. 0:07:56 And I think we’re gonna look back 0:07:59 and the one thing we’re gonna regret most about tech, 0:08:02 big tech, is not that they weaponized our elections, 0:08:04 not that they made our discourse more coarse, 0:08:06 not that they created more income inequality, 0:08:08 not that they abused the monopoly power. 0:08:10 We’re gonna look back on this era 0:08:14 and we’re gonna say how did we let this happen to our kids? 0:08:16 So Jen, you are thinking the right way. 0:08:19 I think you need to be all over this stuff. 0:08:20 Appreciate the question. 0:08:21 Best of luck to you and yours. 0:08:24 Question number two. 0:08:26 – D.F. Prachji, this is Dr. C. from Toronto, Canada 0:08:28 and Sao Paulo, Brazil. 0:08:30 I have just listened to your episode 0:08:32 in which you explain why storytelling 0:08:34 is the most underrated, 0:08:35 yet perhaps the most important skill 0:08:37 we should be teaching our children. 0:08:39 I couldn’t agree more. 0:08:41 After 22 years of management consulting, 0:08:43 including eight years as a partner, 0:08:45 I got to see the upside of superior storytelling. 0:08:47 This is in essence what partners do 0:08:49 in consulting or investment banking 0:08:51 or any other senior positions. 0:08:53 As a parent, on the other hand, 0:08:56 I have been experiencing mostly the downside of storytelling, 0:08:59 either in the form of honest incompetence, 0:09:00 when there is subpar fact-checking 0:09:02 or no fact-checking at all, 0:09:05 or dishonesty in the form of misinformation. 0:09:07 This honest storytelling is certainly 0:09:10 what populists and/or dictators do best. 0:09:12 Given the downside of storytelling, 0:09:13 I have two questions for you. 0:09:15 First, what do you do as a parent 0:09:17 so that your child can become 0:09:19 a sabbier consumer of stories? 0:09:21 And second, as an educator, 0:09:24 do you think universities should do more 0:09:27 on how to become better consumers of stories? 0:09:30 Thank you for your wonderful podcast series. 0:09:32 – This is a thoughtful question, Dr. C, 0:09:33 that touches on a bunch of things. 0:09:36 There’s raising kids to be good storytellers 0:09:38 and then there’s sort of this post-truth world 0:09:39 that we’re entering that’s really, 0:09:41 or entered that’s really unfortunate. 0:09:44 As it relates to raising storytellers, 0:09:45 or good storytellers, 0:09:47 I remember thinking, 0:09:49 I do so much virtue signaling on this program 0:09:52 and I pretend to be such a better father than I actually am 0:09:53 and I’ve been talking about 0:09:55 how important storytelling is for a while. 0:09:55 I’m like, well, okay, boss, 0:09:57 what are you actually doing about it 0:09:59 to try and help your kids be better storytellers? 0:10:01 So I’ve been doing dumb things, 0:10:05 like at dinner when my 12-year-old won’t be quiet, 0:10:07 but my 15-year-old won’t say anything. 0:10:10 I tasked the 15-year-old with starting a conversation. 0:10:11 When they’re telling me stuff, 0:10:12 I asked them to continue. 0:10:13 What I’m gonna start doing, 0:10:14 I haven’t done it yet, 0:10:17 is to actually come up with stories. 0:10:18 I started by telling them stories 0:10:21 of their grandparents having met, 0:10:22 immigrating from Britain, 0:10:25 moving to Canada, 0:10:28 their drive across the US in an Austin mini-metro 0:10:30 when my mom was seven months pregnant 0:10:31 and they’re enthralled by it 0:10:33 and I think that them hearing stories, 0:10:36 I hope, gets them to be better storytellers. 0:10:38 The schools I’ll give it to them 0:10:39 are trying to pull that out of them. 0:10:42 My son went to this wonderful school, 0:10:44 or my son’s called Gulfstream, 0:10:45 and their eighth grade, 0:10:47 every eighth grader has to stand up 0:10:49 in front of the entire community of the school, 0:10:50 including the parents, 0:10:52 and do a 10 or 15 minute talk. 0:10:57 And my son did his talk on the whaling industry 0:10:59 and then tuck it. 0:11:01 God, could that be a wider topic? 0:11:04 Seriously, my son just felt exceptionally Caucasian 0:11:05 and privileged. 0:11:07 Anyways, and it’s great, 0:11:09 and he thinks about it, 0:11:10 and he has to do it with slides, 0:11:13 and he’s nervous about it, 0:11:14 and it’s hard for a 13 year old 0:11:16 to stand up in front of people. 0:11:19 The only competence I have is communications. 0:11:21 I know how to communicate, 0:11:22 I know how to write, 0:11:23 I know how to put together slides, 0:11:25 I know how to, a good twister phrase, right? 0:11:28 And that is how I’ve made my living. 0:11:30 And I immediately recognize with younger people, 0:11:33 that they have to be able to be good storytellers 0:11:35 if they want them to be a business for consulting. 0:11:37 If you’re really amazing with technology, 0:11:38 but you can’t spend a story, 0:11:40 that’s the COO or the CTO Max, 0:11:43 you can be less good in a great storyteller, 0:11:45 and you call that woman CEO. 0:11:47 The ability to communicate your ideas 0:11:49 and attract capital, human and financial, 0:11:51 is the whole shooting match. 0:11:53 How do you get people to be good storytellers? 0:11:55 One is practice, two is different mediums. 0:11:57 I would start with the written word. 0:12:00 I think if you can express your thoughts cogently 0:12:01 by writing them out, 0:12:04 the other stuff’s gonna get much easier. 0:12:05 And then just practice, 0:12:08 and specifically a lot of confidence and trial and error 0:12:10 around speaking in front of people. 0:12:13 And I’m credited with being a good communicator 0:12:14 and a good speaker, 0:12:15 I get paid a lot of money to speak, 0:12:19 and I have panic attacks. 0:12:21 Sometimes I get so fucking nervous and I freak out 0:12:24 and I get on stage and I start talking, 0:12:28 and I start gasping and swallowing air, 0:12:29 and I feel as if I’m dying 0:12:31 and the whole audience freaks out 0:12:34 because I look like I’m in the midst of a heart attack. 0:12:36 And so if you’re nervous in front of people, 0:12:38 if you think I can just never do it 0:12:39 and I need to avoid it, 0:12:43 think again, think again. 0:12:47 This is how I make my living and I get panic attacks. 0:12:48 And you have to get over it. 0:12:49 You have to figure it out. 0:12:52 I’m not suggesting you’re gonna be Tony Robbins, right? 0:12:55 I’m not suggesting you’re gonna be Maya Angelou, 0:12:57 but you gotta have a certain minimum 0:13:00 acceptable presentation skills. 0:13:02 It’s painful, take classes, go to Toastmasters, 0:13:04 whatever you need to do. 0:13:06 I am trying to figure out a way 0:13:08 to put my kids in context where they get more of that 0:13:12 and more experience at that, creative writing, et cetera. 0:13:13 The second part of your question, 0:13:15 I’m really worried about a post-truth world. 0:13:17 The biggest fear I have about generative AI 0:13:18 is I would say, okay, 0:13:22 give me 10 tweets about how vaccines alter your DNA 0:13:24 that sound real and like they came 0:13:28 from a medical established agency or a medical think tank. 0:13:31 And it’ll produce 10 tweets that are false, 0:13:35 have no scientific verification or scientific veracity, 0:13:37 but sound kind of real. 0:13:40 And veracity has really become a function 0:13:43 of who is the loudest and who has the biggest following, 0:13:44 right? 0:13:46 If Donald Trump says a lie long enough, 0:13:47 it starts to become less of a lie. 0:13:49 What do we do about that? 0:13:52 I don’t know, invest in organizations 0:13:54 that have fact-checking, 0:13:58 whether it’s the Wall Street Journal or PBS or the BBC 0:14:01 or, you know, love ’em or hate ’em, 0:14:02 the Post and the New York Times, 0:14:03 they have a viewpoint, 0:14:08 but they do take fact-checking very seriously. 0:14:09 Don’t advertise on Fox News, 0:14:11 that should be called Fox Entertainment 0:14:13 where the anchors coordinate to spread information 0:14:14 and lies that they know or lies 0:14:16 because they think it’ll inflame their audience 0:14:19 and sell more hearing aids. 0:14:21 I mean, that bullshit is really, that’s mendacious. 0:14:25 That’s an abuse of your position and society. 0:14:27 What else can we do? 0:14:29 Remove section 230 or have carve-outs 0:14:30 such that these social media algorithms, 0:14:34 if they are circulating lies that result in teen depression 0:14:36 or misuse of medical treatment 0:14:38 or a belief that an election is rigged 0:14:39 when they know it’s not rigged, 0:14:41 they should have the same type of liability 0:14:43 they have out now with a carve-out around sex trafficking. 0:14:45 If you put information on Facebook, 0:14:48 the results and the trafficking of a minor meta is liable. 0:14:50 And guess what, it reduced it a lot. 0:14:53 So do we want to reduce election misinformation, 0:14:56 vaccine misinformation, medical information, 0:15:00 data or content that gives kids suicidal ideation? 0:15:02 Oh, no, it’d be too complex. 0:15:03 No, you could do it. 0:15:04 They could absolutely do it. 0:15:07 Just give them financial incentive to do it. 0:15:09 And some, I haven’t figured this out, 0:15:11 but I recognize the importance. 0:15:12 I’m trying to do some things 0:15:14 that help my kids develop those skills. 0:15:16 Some of them are uncomfortable. 0:15:17 I don’t have definitive answers. 0:15:20 I just know if we want to appreciate the truth, 0:15:23 we have to appreciate the truth 0:15:25 and reward those that are fact-checking 0:15:27 and punish those that believe 0:15:29 they can turn a lie into the truth 0:15:30 by just telling it over and over. 0:15:32 Thanks for the question. 0:15:35 Dr. C from Toronto, the friendly, clean Canada. 0:15:36 Go Leafs! 0:15:37 Go Leafs! 0:15:40 We’ll be right back for a conversation 0:15:41 with Dr. Shipollet. 0:15:48 Fox Creative. 0:15:51 This is Advertiser Content from Mint Mobile. 0:15:54 Whenever I tell people I’m a free diver, 0:15:57 most of them think I’m nuts. 0:15:58 And that’s fair. 0:16:00 I mean, it’s not the sanest thing in the world 0:16:03 to see how long I can last at depth without oxygen. 0:16:06 And I do feel the pressure now and then, you know? 0:16:08 I mean, when you’re 40 feet underwater, 0:16:11 feeling about 17 pounds per square inch, 0:16:13 it’s kind of unavoidable. 0:16:15 But you want to know about pressure? 0:16:17 Try being a parent. 0:16:19 Your kid’s screaming at you that he wants a quesadilla. 0:16:21 So you bring him one and he says, 0:16:23 “Not that kind! 0:16:25 “What other kind is there, Kevin?” 0:16:30 The key is to stay cool. 0:16:32 Block out the noise. 0:16:34 Because much like parenting, 0:16:37 free diving is about living in the moment. 0:16:39 And it helps to keep it simple. 0:16:42 The same goes for your cell phone plan. 0:16:46 Anyone can be an expert, even those you least expect. 0:16:48 You don’t need a ton of equipment to dive. 0:16:51 And you don’t need all the new gadgets to parent. 0:16:53 And you definitely don’t need a confusing, 0:16:55 expensive contract to get premium wireless 0:16:58 at a price you feel good about. 0:17:01 At Mint Mobile, we’re experts in affordable phone plans 0:17:03 with great coverage. 0:17:05 Get premium wireless for $15 a month 0:17:07 when you buy a three-month plan. 0:17:10 Head to mintmobile.com/profg 0:17:13 to cut your wireless bill to 15 bucks a month. 0:17:15 Trust us, we’re experts. 0:17:19 $45 upfront payment required, equivalent to $15 per month. 0:17:21 New customers on first three-month plan only. 0:17:24 Speed slower above 40 gigabytes on unlimited plan. 0:17:25 Taxes and fees extra. 0:17:27 See Mint Mobile for details. 0:17:32 – Fox Creative. 0:17:35 – This is advertiser content from Mint Mobile. 0:17:39 – Whenever I tell people I’m a free diver, 0:17:41 most of them think I’m nuts. 0:17:42 And that’s fair. 0:17:44 I mean, it’s not the sanest thing in the world 0:17:47 to see how long I can last at depth without oxygen. 0:17:50 And I do feel the pressure now and then, you know? 0:17:52 I mean, when you’re 40 feet underwater 0:17:55 feeling about 17 pounds per square inch, 0:17:57 it’s kind of unavoidable. 0:17:59 But you want to know about pressure? 0:18:01 Try being a parent. 0:18:03 Your kid’s screaming at you that he wants a quesadilla. 0:18:05 So you bring him one and he says, 0:18:07 “Not that kind! 0:18:10 “What other kind is there, Kevin?” 0:18:14 (sighs) The key is to stay cool. 0:18:16 Block out the noise. 0:18:18 Because much like parenting, 0:18:21 free diving is about living in the moment. 0:18:23 And it helps to keep it simple. 0:18:26 The same goes for your cell phone plan. 0:18:28 – Anyone can be an expert. 0:18:30 Even those you least expect. 0:18:32 – You don’t need a ton of equipment to dive. 0:18:35 And you don’t need all the new gadgets to parent. 0:18:37 And you definitely don’t need a confusing, 0:18:40 expensive contract to get premium wireless 0:18:42 at a price you feel good about. 0:18:43 – At Mint Mobile, 0:18:45 we’re experts in affordable phone plans 0:18:47 with great coverage. 0:18:49 Get premium wireless for $15 a month 0:18:51 when you buy a three month plan. 0:18:54 Head to mintmobile.com/profg 0:18:57 to cut your wireless bill to 15 bucks a month. 0:18:59 Trust us, we’re experts. 0:19:01 $45 upfront payment required. 0:19:03 Equivalent to $15 per month. 0:19:05 New customers on first three month plan only. 0:19:08 Speed slower above 40 gigabytes on unlimited plan. 0:19:09 Taxes and fees extra. 0:19:11 Segment mobile for details. 0:19:15 – Welcome back. 0:19:17 Here’s our conversation with Dr. Sifali, 0:19:18 a New York Times bestselling author 0:19:22 of “The Conscious Parent and the Awakened Family.” 0:19:24 – Dr. Sifali, where does this podcast find you? 0:19:27 – Hi, well, in my home in New York. 0:19:29 That’s where I am right now. 0:19:30 – Great, well, welcome. 0:19:31 We appreciate your time. 0:19:32 So let’s best write into it. 0:19:36 How is parenting or our approach 0:19:39 or perception of parenting changed 0:19:41 over the last several decades? 0:19:42 – Oh, my goodness. 0:19:45 I think, I don’t know whether it’s changed so much 0:19:48 or just progressively deteriorated. 0:19:52 You know, I think from our original blueprint 0:19:57 of being raised in tribes within community 0:20:02 with a deep sense of interdependence to where we are now, 0:20:06 this has been the marked skewed deterioration 0:20:11 that I am concerned about because now we’ve become 0:20:14 progressively more and more isolated, 0:20:19 more and more nuclear and increasingly disconnected. 0:20:23 The advent of technology and this fast-paced world 0:20:25 we’re living in has really 0:20:31 detracted our ability to give our children 0:20:35 what they truly need psychologically and emotionally. 0:20:39 And what they truly need is parental presence 0:20:44 and parental well-being with parents more harried, 0:20:47 more distracted, more busy and stressed 0:20:51 and more disconnected because they’re on technology 0:20:53 more than in person. 0:20:54 Our children are being robbed 0:20:59 from the very emotional ingredients that they truly need. 0:21:04 And that is of deep concern and, you know, tragic, 0:21:07 it’s a tragic reality, but here’s where we are. 0:21:12 – So what I think is original or unique in your work 0:21:14 that I haven’t seen as much in other people’s work 0:21:17 is you emphasize on the well-being of the parents. 0:21:19 So start there. 0:21:22 If parents are working a lot, 0:21:25 trying to manage the expectations and capitalist reality 0:21:30 that you need to work a lot to provide a safe, secure household 0:21:33 where the kids have access to healthcare and education. 0:21:35 I mean, I’ve often heard the best thing you can do 0:21:37 for your kids as a husband is to make sure 0:21:39 that their mother feels loved, secure 0:21:42 and is in a place of security and comfort. 0:21:46 Tell us how parents, if you will reconcile that tension 0:21:48 in a capitalist society. 0:21:49 – Well, that’s it. 0:21:53 You in your question is the greatest predicament 0:21:58 because we’ve created such an extreme capitalism 0:22:04 and a desire for it that now we’re stuck in its spiral 0:22:06 and all of us are suffocating. 0:22:09 So part of what I teach, besides, you know, 0:22:12 what do you say to your child to get them to be motivated 0:22:15 or go to school or learn and educate themselves. 0:22:19 Besides those elemental ingredients of parenting, 0:22:24 what I really teach is how parents can begin to recognize 0:22:30 and reconcile this capitalist matrix that we’re within. 0:22:35 How do we live within it without being a slave to it? 0:22:40 How do we live here but really practice presence, 0:22:45 practice mindfulness, practice internal reflection 0:22:49 and slow the F down just because the entire world 0:22:53 is racing by you and the whole entire world 0:22:58 has created a mandate that you are what you do, 0:23:00 you don’t need to prescribe to that. 0:23:05 So my rallying walk-ride is for parents to wake up 0:23:10 to live differently, albeit in this world, 0:23:13 but to really regulate themselves 0:23:17 and understand that this extreme, 0:23:22 superior focus on capitalism is really a wounded, 0:23:26 dysfunctional, diseased, trauma response 0:23:29 from a dysfunctional disease childhood. 0:23:32 So here you are, now you have children, 0:23:35 don’t repeat the same pattern, do it differently. 0:23:38 Dare to do parenting differently. 0:23:41 And I talk about the traditional parenting paradigm 0:23:45 which has been in place since we all have been born 0:23:49 and way before, which is focused on capitalism, 0:23:53 focused on consumerism, focused on racing ahead, 0:23:56 separatism, comparison, competition 0:24:00 and extreme focus on these elements 0:24:02 will create dysfunctional children. 0:24:05 – So this resonates with me 0:24:07 and I wanna try and bring it down. 0:24:09 One, I always use the podcast as a chance 0:24:11 to talk about myself, which I enjoy. 0:24:15 And two, I also wanna try and make this actionable. 0:24:19 In 2000, it was nine or 10. 0:24:23 I had a startup, my partner, then wife, 0:24:25 was working at Goldman Sachs. 0:24:27 We had two babies at home. 0:24:30 She was waking up at 5.30, I was working around the clock. 0:24:33 And we both decided that this was just not the life 0:24:34 we wanted to lead. 0:24:38 At the same time, we recognized that to stay in New York, 0:24:39 we both had to be doing that. 0:24:41 And so we moved to Florida. 0:24:44 We dramatically cut our cost of living. 0:24:46 She left Goldman, continued to work 0:24:50 but had much more flexible, much more flexible life. 0:24:52 But what, so for us, 0:24:55 that recognition that you’re talking about that we’re not, 0:24:57 you know, what’s the point if we aren’t having a nice life 0:25:00 and at some point our kids are gonna sense this stress. 0:25:02 We dramatically cut our burn rate 0:25:05 and we decided that one person would be at home a lot 0:25:06 with the kids. 0:25:08 So those are two things. 0:25:10 One, I imagine you agree with those things, 0:25:14 but what else can parents do as an audit 0:25:18 that helps them create an actionable plan to foot 0:25:21 against your more conscious parenting? 0:25:24 – Well, every action really needs to come 0:25:25 from a deep intention. 0:25:27 So I can tell you the action, 0:25:28 but you know I’m all for the deeper intention. 0:25:33 But an actionable plan is stop racing to nowhere, 0:25:36 you know, clear out your schedule, 0:25:40 limit your children’s extracurricular structured activities 0:25:43 between the ages of one and 12. 0:25:47 Children are meant to play and explore 0:25:52 and be in this dreamlike state of creativity and inner quest. 0:25:57 Putting them in all these manic activities 0:26:01 robs them of their ability to explore their inner world. 0:26:05 And if you ask me what is the one disease of today, 0:26:09 it’s that our children do not know how to sit in stillness 0:26:14 in creativity and be bored and activate their inner resources 0:26:18 without governance from parental 0:26:20 and other supervisory figures 0:26:22 who constantly are telling them what to do, 0:26:23 how to do, when to do. 0:26:27 And then we wonder why our children by the age of 14 0:26:31 are listless and motivational lists on the couch. 0:26:33 Well, because we’ve robbed them of that initiative 0:26:37 and we’ve prescribed them into how to be 0:26:39 and no one wants to live according to a prescription. 0:26:41 Well, that’s what we’re doing to our children. 0:26:46 It’s as if there’s only one track to success and joy. 0:26:51 And that’s the mainstream consumeristic capitalistic track. 0:26:54 And it’s dangerous and our children 0:26:59 will become actually more antipathy than less 0:27:03 because we’re taking them into antipathy 0:27:05 instead of out of it. 0:27:07 – And so you write in your book 0:27:09 that we should move away from outcome goals 0:27:11 to process goals. 0:27:13 What did you mean by that? 0:27:17 – Well, our entire culture is based on linearity 0:27:20 and the future outcome 0:27:22 and how that looks to the outside world. 0:27:26 I mean, it’s just an externally driven world we live in. 0:27:30 And when we are tethered to external goals, 0:27:32 looking to the future, looking to tomorrow, 0:27:37 we get displaced from the most precious gift of life, 0:27:39 which is the present moment. 0:27:43 And we’re missing life waiting for tomorrow. 0:27:48 Childhood is in existence for one reason only 0:27:53 for the experience of childhood, not to raise an adult. 0:27:56 We somehow seem to think it’s in vogue 0:27:58 that we’re raising adults. 0:28:00 No, we’re not raising adults. 0:28:01 We’re raising children. 0:28:05 Children have a very unique developmental phase quality 0:28:10 and value that we are minimizing 0:28:13 because we have put stock in the future. 0:28:16 So similarly, in the present moment, 0:28:21 when we focus on how we are experiencing the present moment, 0:28:23 how we are entering the present moment, 0:28:27 this lived experience that you and I are having right now, 0:28:30 if we can awaken to it, alive into it, 0:28:33 for the listener right now in their car or on a walk, 0:28:37 if they can truly enter their body right here right now 0:28:39 and examine where they are, 0:28:43 now that is process-oriented living. 0:28:46 – Have you done any research or thinking around 0:28:51 if and what different types of approaches are needed 0:28:55 or modifications around parenting girls versus boys? 0:29:00 – I’ve done a lot of thinking and work around it. 0:29:02 With my own clients, 0:29:05 and I think we do need to recognize 0:29:09 that there is a difference biologically 0:29:14 between biological males and biological females. 0:29:15 I’m not talking about gender, 0:29:18 I’m just talking about just the biology, 0:29:21 and we need to attune to that. 0:29:24 Having said that, we also don’t need to get stuck in that, 0:29:27 right, there needs to be an attunement 0:29:30 to who the child is as they show up 0:29:32 based on what we see right in front of us. 0:29:35 So boy or girl, if they’re fidgeting in their chair 0:29:38 in fourth grade and they just can’t sit still, 0:29:40 well, we need to adapt to that. 0:29:43 I can predict more likely that the boy 0:29:46 with a higher testosterone and higher activity level 0:29:48 may need more activity, 0:29:51 but I don’t want to just stereotype it to that. 0:29:52 But I always want to be aware 0:29:55 that there is a biological difference 0:29:58 and it may not feel avant-garde to say that, 0:30:00 but for me, that’s a reality. 0:30:03 – The thing where you said there that resonated 0:30:05 was our need to sort of identify and label 0:30:10 in hopes that we can help shape the outcome 0:30:11 to a better place. 0:30:13 And I think that concern comes from a good place, 0:30:16 but what I see across households, 0:30:19 including ours, is this immediate need, 0:30:20 especially I think with boys, 0:30:23 although it might be as true with girls, 0:30:25 is to immediately label them as someone who either 0:30:27 is ADHD or not ADHD, 0:30:30 and then if someone who needs medicine 0:30:32 or doesn’t need medicine. 0:30:35 What are your thoughts on ADHD? 0:30:38 It’s the prevalence of the diagnosis 0:30:42 and your general views around prescription medication 0:30:43 for ADHD. 0:30:46 That’s the debate I see playing out 0:30:48 in almost every household I’m in contact with. 0:30:51 – Yeah, so there’s several layers to it. 0:30:54 So if you look at a lot of the research, 0:30:59 they will say that there is an inheritance in ADHD 0:31:02 and other spectrum disorders. 0:31:06 And I’m not a researcher, so I will just go with that. 0:31:11 However, I tend to ask what is the use of that research? 0:31:13 Like how am I going to use that research? 0:31:16 That’s more important to me than knowing 0:31:18 whether it’s inherited or not. 0:31:21 So the first thing that that research tells me 0:31:24 when I coach parents is that we are dealing 0:31:26 with a different kind of brain. 0:31:27 But guess what? 0:31:28 I say that for every damn child. 0:31:30 I say it for every human. 0:31:31 Guess what? 0:31:32 You have a different kind of brain. 0:31:35 So, okay, right there you can relax 0:31:37 because we all have a different kind of brain 0:31:38 and we need to adapt to that brain. 0:31:42 That brain though, the quote unquote ADHD brain, 0:31:44 seems to require certain things. 0:31:47 Which let me tell you, any parent will figure out 0:31:48 if you just observe your child. 0:31:50 So what are those things? 0:31:54 An ADHD kind of brain requires more space, 0:31:57 flexibility, creativity, and constant feedback. 0:32:01 Because their brain, and research has shown this, 0:32:05 has a more dopamine deficit, 0:32:10 they require more of that external feedback 0:32:13 to provide that quote unquote dopamine hit. 0:32:16 So schedules that are more bite-sized, 0:32:19 projects that are broken down into chunks, 0:32:22 constant feedback to those kinds of children. 0:32:27 And room and flexibility to move, to create, to play, 0:32:30 to not follow such a tight schedule. 0:32:32 Now, that’s just on the brain level. 0:32:37 Culturally and societally, we have created a cage, 0:32:44 cage for children, ADHD brain or non-ADHD brain. 0:32:47 I remember, and even though I’m quote unquote a girl, 0:32:50 and I was more socialized to be compliant, 0:32:55 I felt stifled in a classroom growing up in India. 0:32:57 So fast forward now, 0:33:00 where we become even more regimented, 0:33:02 more achievement oriented, 0:33:06 children are being stifled in these little cages 0:33:08 that is so detrimental to them. 0:33:13 And I think it causes ADHD on its own as well. 0:33:16 Besides it being an inherited or inherent feature 0:33:19 of one’s personality and brain function, 0:33:24 I think we also accentuate it and we actually cause it too. 0:33:27 And the third issue is parental stress. 0:33:30 And I don’t want parents to feel like they are to blame, 0:33:33 but we have to look at our co-creation. 0:33:37 I think I, in my own life, as mindful as I like to be, 0:33:41 I can act completely scattered, distracted, stressed out, 0:33:45 which then my daughter absorbs and she immediately feels it. 0:33:47 Now she’s stressed out, 0:33:49 which causes her to not engage in a presence 0:33:51 filled away in her life. 0:33:55 So look how many things there are to create this ADHD. 0:33:57 Now you asked about medication. 0:34:00 My blanket knee jerk reaction 0:34:04 is to be skeptical of medication for young children, 0:34:08 but I’m also open to each case, right? 0:34:12 Sometimes I’ve had to refer my eight-year-old client 0:34:16 to a psychiatrist to just get checked out, 0:34:19 but I’ve loathed it 0:34:23 because I know that we can adapt the environment 0:34:25 to create a better environment for our children 0:34:28 before infusing them with drugs. 0:34:32 And many families with ADHD children 0:34:38 will have the preponderance of ADHD somewhere in the family. 0:34:41 Genetic or situational, it’s there. 0:34:45 So I help parents clear up their schedules, 0:34:49 clean up their environments, calm the hell down, 0:34:50 and engage with their children. 0:34:52 And that helps tremendously. 0:34:54 So I will explore all those things 0:34:58 before I recommend medicine. 0:35:00 – What are your views on a parent’s role 0:35:03 with respect to the intersection between technology, 0:35:05 specifically the phone and kids? 0:35:07 Do you have any best practices? 0:35:09 – Yes. 0:35:14 Given that we’ve now seen how addictive these screens are, 0:35:17 my daughter’s 21, so I’ve already messed it up. 0:35:22 But I tell young parents, no screen still teens 0:35:26 as much as possible because it’s, to me, 0:35:29 giving crack cocaine to your young children 0:35:30 and to these young brains. 0:35:34 And they are not developmentally ready to handle 0:35:37 the influx of all the stimulation that is really 0:35:38 designed to rob them of presence, 0:35:42 which is the main thing children need to thrive. 0:35:44 And children need connected parents. 0:35:48 So the more parents are on their screens, 0:35:50 the more children are not getting what they need 0:35:52 in terms of emotional food. 0:35:56 So it’s just an all-out disaster. 0:36:00 I think technology to young children is a disaster. 0:36:03 But what does a parent need to do? 0:36:06 The parent needs to fight the matrix as much as possible, 0:36:10 not given, and really try to be as present as they can, 0:36:14 which is a big, high, tall order for parents today. 0:36:16 Because now we are all addicted. 0:36:18 So what do we do? 0:36:21 Our emails are constantly buzzing on the phone 0:36:23 and we’re called to work now 24/7. 0:36:26 Now it’s virtuous to work on the go. 0:36:30 Before, we couldn’t check our email if we were on vacation. 0:36:32 Now we can check our email all the time. 0:36:36 So are children are getting exponentially less attention 0:36:39 and connection from a present grounded, 0:36:42 undistracted parent than ever before? 0:36:44 I mean, so much of this resonates. 0:36:47 I struggle with one thing. 0:36:50 My parents were worried I was going to get into too much trouble. 0:36:54 I’m actually worried that my kids won’t get into enough trouble. 0:36:57 The absence of free play, supervision everywhere. 0:37:00 I used to leave my mom’s house. 0:37:03 It’s 9 a.m. on a Saturday morning with a Schwinn bike 0:37:06 and Abba Zaba bar and 35 cents. 0:37:07 And I’m not exaggerating. 0:37:09 I would come home 13 hours later. 0:37:12 And she had no idea where I was, none. 0:37:14 And if I wasn’t home by 10 or 11 p.m., 0:37:18 she’d start calling around, but for 13 hours, 0:37:22 if my son is 20 minutes late from school, 0:37:24 we call him my six. 0:37:27 I mean, it’s just nuts. 0:37:30 I mean, how much of this is that the parents need to 0:37:33 try and quell their own anxiety? 0:37:35 I’m sure you’re hearing the terms Jonathan Hyde, 0:37:36 every other word right now. 0:37:38 But one of the things that Jonathan said 0:37:42 that really resonated with me is we overparent, 0:37:45 offline and underparent online. 0:37:49 How do we learn to stop the overparenting offline? 0:37:55 Yeah, it is 100% our parental anxiety. 0:37:59 You know, these apps that way you can track your kid 24/7. 0:38:01 And you know, I refused. 0:38:04 I only just recently put it on my phone 0:38:07 because my daughter wanted to track me. 0:38:08 I was like, what the hell? 0:38:10 Why do you want to track me? 0:38:11 She’s like, I need to know where you are. 0:38:15 I said, see, you’re falling into your current generation’s 0:38:18 bullshit, sorry, to track people. 0:38:20 And I never tracked her. 0:38:23 She’s 21 and only because she’s tracking me now, 0:38:25 I apparently have to do it mutually. 0:38:27 And I told her, I don’t want to track you, 0:38:28 not because I don’t love you, 0:38:31 but I don’t want to fall into this plague 0:38:34 of constant anxiety around where you are. 0:38:37 It is overparenting offline 0:38:42 because it gives us this illusory sense of control, 0:38:46 which is our greatest desire has always been our longing 0:38:49 to control the hell out of other people 0:38:51 and especially our children. 0:38:53 And our technology has given it to us, 0:38:54 but it’s an illusion. 0:38:56 It’s the illusion of control. 0:39:00 And it’s given us tools to micromanage our children, 0:39:02 to overproduce them. 0:39:07 And of course, our children are now not rooting 0:39:10 for themselves, not flying the roost 0:39:12 and just breaking free from us 0:39:14 because our tethers are too deep in them. 0:39:18 And now we’ve trained them to constantly look to us, 0:39:20 rely on us, call us. 0:39:22 The moment there’s a catastrophe in their life, 0:39:25 they’re like, mom, dad, right away on text. 0:39:26 We didn’t have that. 0:39:28 We didn’t have the tether. 0:39:30 Once you left the house, you left the house. 0:39:32 I left at 21 to America without a phone, 0:39:34 without, we used to write letters home 0:39:37 and it took three weeks for news to reach home 0:39:40 and a lot of money to call long distance. 0:39:42 We’ve removed that, you see, 0:39:45 but what we’ve removed is not just inconvenience. 0:39:49 We’ve removed the capacity for resilience 0:39:52 for our children to sit in the mess of their life, 0:39:56 to be bored, to sit in the anxiety of waiting for a bus, 0:39:58 to wait for their meal, 0:40:01 to walk to the Encyclopedia Britannica 0:40:02 and find it on the shelf 0:40:04 and then wait for it to come back 0:40:06 because it’s been checked out. 0:40:10 All that waiting, albeit terribly inconvenient, 0:40:11 now has been bypassed. 0:40:16 And when you bypass waiting and delaying gratification, 0:40:19 you take out life skills, 0:40:24 which the main life skill is coping with your discomfort. 0:40:26 Why do you think children are more anxious 0:40:27 ever today than ever before 0:40:30 because we have removed discomfort from their life 0:40:33 and they don’t know how to deal with discomfort. 0:40:36 They expect things at their fingertips 0:40:40 because we’ve trained them, our generation did this to them. 0:40:41 Don’t be blaming children, 0:40:44 I always tell our generation of parents, 0:40:45 we gave them all this technology 0:40:47 because we were tired of walking to school, 0:40:49 we were tired of cooking 0:40:54 and now we’ve raised children who are highly indulged 0:40:57 and incapable of sitting with messy feelings. 0:40:59 – So as we wrap up here, 0:41:02 we’ve talked a bit about parenting, 0:41:05 but if there’s a lot of macroeconomic factors at play, 0:41:07 the child poverty is up. 0:41:09 I believe there’s a lot of economic policies 0:41:11 that make it harder for young parents 0:41:12 to be economically secure. 0:41:15 If the White House called you and said, 0:41:18 “Dr. Safali, what are two or three programs 0:41:22 “or policy changes you would like to see us implement 0:41:25 “that would make it easier for parents 0:41:27 “to be more conscious parents?” 0:41:29 What would those two or three ideas be? 0:41:33 – I would say no child should have a screen, 0:41:37 a portable screen till the age of 16. 0:41:39 Take it away, it’s banned. 0:41:41 I would take out the screen from the school. 0:41:43 Yeah, and then people will be like, 0:41:44 “Well, what about technology?” 0:41:48 Well, I would limit it to like an hour a day. 0:41:51 I wouldn’t make it the way of life. 0:41:53 I know parents of today’s generation, 0:41:56 if there was a rule in place that screens were banned 0:41:59 from the home till the child was 16 or 17, 0:42:03 all of us would heave, 0:42:06 breathe the biggest sigh of relief 0:42:10 because we’ve seen it contaminating our lives at home. 0:42:13 We’ve seen our children getting high on the drug 0:42:16 of the screen dopamine and unable to get off 0:42:18 and monsters when they get off. 0:42:19 So that’s the first thing I would do. 0:42:23 The second thing I would do is I would make mindfulness 0:42:25 and a meditation practice, 0:42:29 completely non-religious secular meditation practice. 0:42:33 It must in every school, it must in every corporation, 0:42:35 it must for every parent. 0:42:38 And the third thing I would do is I would send all parents 0:42:39 to my conscious parenting classes. 0:42:42 So they learn to heal their baggage 0:42:44 and learn how to be a conscious parent. 0:42:48 I think that would be the saving of the planet. 0:42:50 – Dr. Shifali is a New York Times bestselling author 0:42:54 of “The Conscious Parent and the Awakened Family.” 0:42:57 She’s also a clinical psychologist, parenting expert 0:42:59 and international speaker and a wisdom teacher 0:43:03 who integrates Eastern philosophy with Western psychology. 0:43:05 She joins us from her home in New York. 0:43:07 Dr. Shifali, we appreciate your time. 0:43:10 – I have one more thing that I’m also now off. 0:43:15 Yes, I am now the host of my own parenting podcast 0:43:17 called “Parenting and You,” 0:43:19 which is not your typical parenting podcast 0:43:24 because I help the parent in this podcast raise themselves. 0:43:29 And I only do live interventions with parents in real time. 0:43:31 – Parenting and you, great. 0:43:33 Thank you, Dr. Shifali. 0:43:34 – Thank you, thank you for having me. 0:43:37 – That’s all for this episode. 0:43:39 If you’d like to submit a question, 0:43:40 please email a voice recording 0:43:42 to officehours@proptimedia.com. 0:43:45 Again, that’s officehours@proptimedia.com. 0:43:56 – Support for this special series comes from Mint Mobile. 0:43:58 You can tell someone as an expert 0:44:00 when they make hard things look easy. 0:44:03 And when it comes to choosing the right cell phone plan, 0:44:04 let the experts at Mint Mobile 0:44:07 show you how easy it is to get great service 0:44:09 for a fraction of the cost. 0:44:12 Go to mintmobile.com/profg 0:44:14 to get your new three-month premium wireless plan 0:44:17 for just 15 bucks a month. 0:44:20 That’s mintmobile.com/profg. 0:44:22 $45 upfront payment required, 0:44:24 equivalent to $15 per month. 0:44:27 New customers on first three-month plan only. 0:44:29 Speed slower above 40 gigabytes on unlimited plan. 0:44:31 Taxes and fees extra. 0:44:32 See Mint Mobile for details. 0:44:35 (upbeat music)
Welcome to the final episode of The Prof G Pod’s special series featuring some of our favorite Office Hours moments. Today, you’ll hear: Best of Parenting, where Scott offers advice on introducing your children to social media and tips on helping them become great storytellers.
After that, we feature an interview with Dr. Shefali, a NYT bestselling author of The Conscious Parent and The Awakened Family. She is also a clinical psychologist, parenting expert, an international speaker and a wisdom teacher who integrates Eastern philosophy with Western psychology.
Prof G Markets: How Scott Navigates Money with His Family
AI transcript
0:00:06 This episode is brought to you by On Investing, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. 0:00:10 Each week, hosts Lizanne Saunders, Schwab’s chief investment strategist, and Kathy Jones, 0:00:15 Schwab’s chief fixed income strategist, bring you fresh insights on what’s happening in 0:00:19 the markets and why, and what the implications might be for your portfolio. 0:00:23 Join Kathy and Lizanne as they explore questions like, “How do you evaluate corporate bonds 0:00:27 that look interesting?” and “What sectors are on the move right now?” 0:00:34 For the latest episode, can subscribe at Schwab.com/oninvesting or wherever you get your podcast. 0:00:39 Hey, this is Scott Galloway, host of the PropG Podcast. 0:00:43 One of my favorite things I get to do on this show is hear from our listeners and answer 0:00:48 their burning questions about all sorts of things, including work, life, school. 0:00:49 You name it. 0:00:52 And this summer, we’re bringing back the hits and covering some of our favorite questions 0:00:53 and takes. 0:00:57 We’re talking business, career advice, and even hearing a brand new, never been aired 0:00:58 interview about parenthood. 0:01:03 So tune in to the best of office hours, the special series from the PropG Podcast sponsored 0:01:05 by Mint Mobile. 0:01:10 You can find it on the PropG feed wherever you get your podcasts. 0:01:12 This week’s number, 400. 0:01:17 That’s how many people applied to adopt Pepper, a foul mouth parrot from Anaya Rafal’s Animal 0:01:18 Shelter. 0:01:22 True story, the Pope has said that pets should not replace children. 0:01:25 I guess he doesn’t want priest practicing bestiality. 0:01:40 Welcome to PropG markets at what’s going, is that too much, Ed? 0:01:41 Is that too much? 0:01:42 On point, as always. 0:01:43 There you go. 0:01:44 There you go. 0:01:45 What was my other pet joke? 0:01:49 Oh, supposedly one-third of people let their pets sleep in their bed with them. 0:01:53 So I gave it a try and the goldfish died. 0:01:55 That’s a good two, right? 0:01:56 That’s good. 0:02:00 If I could just weave in goldfish and pedophilia, I could have it all. 0:02:01 I could have it all. 0:02:04 Welcome to PropG markets, Ed. 0:02:05 What is going on today? 0:02:08 We’re going to talk about money, as always Scott, but this time we’re going to focus 0:02:13 on a specific topic that we get a lot of questions about, and that is how to deal with 0:02:16 money when it comes to family. 0:02:19 So I’m going to run through a series of questions about how you think about money when it comes 0:02:23 to your own family, and hopefully we’ll get some advice for our listeners. 0:02:24 That sound good? 0:02:25 Sounds good. 0:02:29 So you have a famous piece of advice, which is that the most important financial decision 0:02:32 that you’ll make is who you partner with. 0:02:37 So I just want to focus on partners for the beginning of this. 0:02:41 How did you know that you and your partner were aligned financially? 0:02:44 Well, it’s not easy to sort of have that conversation with your young, because you’re 0:02:48 not entirely sure you understand each of your approach to spending. 0:02:49 You get a sense for it. 0:02:52 A lot of it just comes down to what sort of turns you on. 0:02:57 I’ve always been very attracted to women who were exceptionally competent. 0:03:02 My current partner worked at Goldman Sachs, has an MBA, has always made a lot of money, 0:03:04 and I just find that sexy. 0:03:08 Not so much that they make money, which is obviously very helpful. 0:03:12 Two incomes are just so powerful relative to one. 0:03:14 But I’ve always just been drawn to people who are really competent. 0:03:19 My girlfriend before her was a surgeon. 0:03:24 And my first wife also had an MBA and was the COO of a retailer. 0:03:27 So that shit just works for me. 0:03:29 And I think it’s an individual thing. 0:03:31 I got very lucky that way. 0:03:35 And that is I chose partners who were really financially viable, not because I was thinking 0:03:39 about money, but because I just personally find that very attractive. 0:03:44 And do you have conversations with your — have you always had conversations with your partners 0:03:46 about money and about your financial goals? 0:03:49 Yeah, although in the beginning, we didn’t really have a lot of conversations. 0:03:53 It was just — with my first wife, it was just like, we’re both working so hard. 0:03:56 And she had sort of these Midwestern values. 0:03:57 I’ve always spent more than my partners. 0:04:01 I’ve always — I don’t know if it was purposeful, but I’ve always found partners that are fairly 0:04:03 — not frugal, but really responsible with money. 0:04:06 And I’m always on the one like, “No, let’s buy the Range Rover. 0:04:08 You only live once.” 0:04:11 And I’ve never gone into debt, but I’ve always been a spender. 0:04:17 And usually my partner’s sort of a more of a saver, or not even a saver, but less of 0:04:18 a risk-taker. 0:04:22 If we were up to my partner, we would have Krugerans buried in the backyard. 0:04:28 And maybe buying — like risk for her is buying Deutsche Bonds that yield one and a half percent. 0:04:33 And I’m like, “No, it’s this great new technology that sends, you know, that sends pets into 0:04:34 space. 0:04:37 It’s a no-brainer.” 0:04:40 What I will say is — and I think this is really important, the approach I have tried 0:04:41 to take. 0:04:48 And this is a story of privilege, because I’ve always had more money, or almost always 0:04:51 made more money than I was spending. 0:04:57 One of the really wonderful things I really value about my relationship is that I encourage 0:04:59 my wife to spend money. 0:05:01 I want her to enjoy the money. 0:05:05 I want her to live life. 0:05:07 And I’m the one — she’ll call me and say, “Hey, I’m looking at this.” 0:05:12 And she calls me because she doesn’t like to buy expensive things for herself. 0:05:14 And she knows I’m going to say, “Yes, go for it.” 0:05:19 I’m a conduit for happiness, and that is I’m never that happy myself. 0:05:23 But the way I register joy is when other people are happy. 0:05:29 So I’ve always really enjoyed, if money can buy people happiness in my family, I want them 0:05:32 to indulge and engage in that. 0:05:38 But that is one part of my life that has always been really positive. 0:05:43 What’s your approach to sharing with your partner, like sharing assets? 0:05:49 To what extent is it two financial lives versus one merged together for you? 0:05:50 Well, I think it’s individual. 0:05:54 I think some people, especially later in life, who come to the table with preexisting assets 0:05:58 when I keep their assets sequestered from each other, I get that. 0:06:04 But in all of my relationships, including this one, I’ve been in this current relationship 0:06:05 for over 20 years. 0:06:08 I didn’t really have any money when I met my current partner. 0:06:13 I mean, it’s really rewarding to build economic security is rewarding, but what’s incredibly 0:06:16 rewarding is to build it with someone else. 0:06:17 It’s just fun. 0:06:20 You just feel like you’re building something, and if you buy your house together and you 0:06:25 make money and you can build a nice life together that includes economic security, it’s just 0:06:27 so much rewarding than building it on your own. 0:06:29 It’s almost like it doesn’t really happen. 0:06:31 I love investing with other people. 0:06:36 That way if the investment goes well, you both celebrate it, and it’s just so much more fun. 0:06:38 I’ve never had separate accounts. 0:06:43 Even when I wasn’t married to my ex-wife when we were just living together, I’m like, “What’s 0:06:44 mine is yours?” 0:06:47 We had one checking account. 0:06:49 We didn’t track who was spending what. 0:06:51 We both had similar approaches to money. 0:06:52 We were both responsible. 0:06:54 We were both making money. 0:06:56 I have never checked my partner’s credit card bills. 0:06:58 I’ve never done any of that. 0:07:05 Again, a lot of that is because we had the luxury of having a decent amount of money. 0:07:08 This stuff is so important because they say the majority of divorces are a function of 0:07:10 economic stress. 0:07:11 That is just one stress. 0:07:18 I’ve had stress economically, but it has never been injected into my relationships. 0:07:23 What kinds of economic decisions do you think should be made together? 0:07:29 It sounds like when your wife calls you and she wants to buy something expensive, she’s 0:07:35 kind of asking for permission to make the economic decision together in a way. 0:07:38 Where’s your line on when you got to call the partner? 0:07:41 The dynamic is a little unusual there because here’s the thing. 0:07:42 She doesn’t need to call me. 0:07:43 She doesn’t need my permission. 0:07:49 What she is doing is she wants me to validate it because she has trouble spending that kind 0:07:50 of money on herself. 0:07:55 She knows what I’m going to say, which is the following. 0:07:57 You should absolutely buy it. 0:08:01 Oh my God, $38,000 for a pair of antique earrings. 0:08:02 That is such a great value. 0:08:07 It would be economically irresponsible of you not to buy it. 0:08:11 For the well-being of our family, I need you to buy those earrings. 0:08:15 She knows I’m going to say something similar to that and it makes her feel better about 0:08:16 buying it. 0:08:19 I see above, very privileged. 0:08:22 Let’s throw out a hypothetical for you then. 0:08:27 You want to buy a car, not a crazy sports car, but a car. 0:08:28 Is that a shared decision? 0:08:29 No. 0:08:33 If it’s something over a few hundred dollars, we’re renovating a house and she’ll talk to 0:08:37 me about decisions and what it’s going to cost. 0:08:42 We share a discussion and it’s not permission, but it’s joint decision making to try and 0:08:46 make sure wisdom of crowds around spending big ticket purchases, buying a house or renovating 0:08:47 a house or big purchases. 0:08:50 We talk about that stuff. 0:08:55 I make big investment decisions that are multi-million dollar decisions without her permission. 0:09:01 What we do on money though is because I manage the investments is that on a regular basis, 0:09:05 I tell her where we are and that is I’ll sit down with her probably every three or probably 0:09:07 every six months and I’ll say, “This is how much money we have.” 0:09:12 I have, I don’t know, 25 investments and I’ll say, “This is how they’re all doing.” 0:09:14 I try to give it to her very sober and very straight. 0:09:19 Last week, I think I told you two weeks ago, I had an investment, a $5 million investment 0:09:20 go to zero. 0:09:23 The next day I just said, “Oh, FYI, do you remember that health care text message in 0:09:24 company?” 0:09:25 I’m like, “It went to zero.” 0:09:27 Immediately, she said, “That’s it. 0:09:33 No more sex for you for the rest of the year, Mr. fucking idiot ruining our economic security.” 0:09:42 I think what strains relationships is obviously economics but I think what ruins them is surprises. 0:09:48 I always want my partner to know where we are economically and I’m good at money. 0:09:52 She outsources that part of our life to me and pretty much she does almost everything 0:09:58 else but around investments and maintaining top-line wealth and wealth decisions. 0:10:02 I make those decisions but on the big ones, I check in with her. 0:10:06 This is what I’m thinking, this is what we’re investing in and I just want her to know what’s 0:10:07 going on. 0:10:09 I don’t want her to ever feel surprised. 0:10:13 I don’t want her to feel like she’s reading the market so up 30% but our wealth got cut 0:10:15 because of our investments are down. 0:10:19 I never want her to be surprised so I tell her exactly how it is and I always, I would 0:10:25 say, have a little bit of a … I kind of give it to her a little bit worse than what 0:10:30 it is but I’m very quick to tell her about the losses and not as quick to tell her about 0:10:31 the wins. 0:10:35 I honestly do but the key is, you never want your partner to be a surprise about this. 0:10:37 I mean, losing money is bad. 0:10:38 What’s worse is surprises. 0:10:44 Yeah, it sounds like you don’t have much stress around the economics in your relationship. 0:10:46 One, because you have the money. 0:10:50 I think that’s an important point but two, it sounds like there’s just generally a high 0:10:55 level of trust so you don’t have to be tracking stuff because you just trust that the other 0:10:58 person is going to make the right decision. 0:10:59 Would you say that’s sort of the key? 0:11:05 I just think you need to be cognizant of what your partner, potential partner’s approach 0:11:11 to money is, if and what will their contribution be on both sides. 0:11:15 What economic weight class do you expect to be in? 0:11:19 Who’s responsible for maintaining that economic weight class and what is your approach, each 0:11:20 of your approach to spending? 0:11:27 Just some very basic general questions ask yourself and each other and also have an honest 0:11:28 talk about, “All right. 0:11:29 We live in Chicago. 0:11:31 This is probably what it’s going to cost to live. 0:11:33 This is how much money I’m going to make. 0:11:34 How much money do you think you’re going to make? 0:11:37 Are you planning to make money?” 0:11:42 Because you just need to get some sort of alignment and then I think where you need 0:11:50 real alignment with your partner, a very open conversation is when things go awry. 0:11:55 When you have economics to ask, maybe it’s a healthcare cost or one of your parents gets 0:11:59 sick and you have to come up with money when he gets laid off, whatever it might be, but 0:12:04 you end up with economic hardship, then you need to really be transparent and sit down 0:12:10 and get alignment and have some difficult conversations around what’s required to rebuild 0:12:11 as a team. 0:12:21 We’ll be right back. 0:12:23 Support for the show comes from Greenlight. 0:12:27 It’s August, the month where you can feel those back-to-school deals hitting your inbox 0:12:28 over and over again. 0:12:31 From those overpriced school supplies to designer clothes, they’ll probably grow out 0:12:32 a fast. 0:12:36 But as a parent, you know how vitally important these next few years are for your child. 0:12:40 And while financial literacy might not be a course on your child’s curriculum, Greenlight 0:12:44 wants to help remedy that and give you an opportunity to teach your kids about important 0:12:46 financial life skills. 0:12:49 Greenlight is a debit card and money out for families. 0:12:52 Parents can keep an eye on kids’ spending and money habits and kids can learn how to 0:12:54 save, invest and spend wisely. 0:12:59 And with a Greenlight Infinity plan, you can get even more financial literacy resources 0:13:02 and teens can check in thanks to 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economy, and more. 0:14:52 Join Kathy, Liz Ann, and their guests as they share insights on what might be moving the 0:14:57 markets and why, as well as what indicators they are watching for signs of change. 0:15:01 They’ll also answer investor questions on everything from how sectors are evolving to 0:15:06 what the bond markets are telling us, to where to look for opportunities and considerations 0:15:08 for your portfolio. 0:15:11 You can download the latest episode of On Investing and subscribe so you never miss an 0:15:18 episode at schwab.com/oninvesting or wherever you get your podcast. 0:15:29 We’re back with ProfG Markets. 0:15:31 Let’s talk about parents. 0:15:35 Do you think people should feel a responsibility to provide for their parents once they start 0:15:36 making money? 0:15:37 I don’t know if they should. 0:15:39 I know I always did. 0:15:42 My dad had such an unhealthy relationship. 0:15:46 My dad loves me more than my sister because I make more money than her. 0:15:50 My dad has such a fucked-up relationship with money. 0:15:55 He grew up in Scotland during the Depression in an era where if you didn’t have money, 0:16:01 you could literally starve, and he just has such an unhealthy relationship to money. 0:16:06 It was always a constant source of stress for him, his approach to it. 0:16:07 It scarred me. 0:16:11 If I can’t pay for everyone when I go out, I won’t go out. 0:16:15 When I was younger, if I couldn’t pay for everybody, not that I was expected to, but 0:16:20 my dad was so cheap that I went the other way. 0:16:24 I just wouldn’t go out unless I felt like I could pay for everybody. 0:16:29 Anyways, that’s a different talk show, but I take care of my dad financially now. 0:16:30 It cost me a shit ton of money. 0:16:36 I spend about, I think about $250,000 or $300,000 post-tax taking care of my father, having 0:16:41 him in a home, having a full-time health aide, helped out my mom, but I was in a position 0:16:43 to, and it felt really nice. 0:16:47 It felt really good to be able to do that. 0:16:53 What I would say is that, hopefully you have siblings, hopefully your parents are economically 0:17:00 responsible and saved enough money, but yeah, I think the definition of family is you take 0:17:07 an emotionally and financially invested, you’re invested in their success and their 0:17:08 well-being. 0:17:15 So, ideally, you and your siblings get together and figure out a way that your parents are 0:17:16 comfortable. 0:17:21 What’s been really wonderful in terms of, for example, with my father’s, there’s different 0:17:22 ways to contribute. 0:17:28 My father’s kind of needed a lot of care or financial care over the last 10 years. 0:17:31 He’s gotten older and divorced for his fourth time. 0:17:37 I have the money to do it, but my sister handles all of the logistics and hiring and firing 0:17:44 of the nurses and negotiating with the facility he’s at, and to be honest, my part’s the 0:17:45 easy part. 0:17:49 I pay for it all because I make more money than my sister, but I see that as the easy 0:17:50 part. 0:17:53 She has to get on the phone with these folks and figure out if they’re going to have a 0:17:56 full-time nurse, what the hours are. 0:17:57 It’s been a great partnership. 0:18:03 I’m really grateful that me and my sister are really aligned around this, but yeah, 0:18:07 every family’s different, but if you’re in a position to help your parents, why wouldn’t 0:18:08 it? 0:18:09 It feels good. 0:18:10 It feels right. 0:18:11 It feels natural. 0:18:12 Do you take care of your sister financially? 0:18:13 No, I don’t take care of her. 0:18:16 Her and her husband are really successful professionally. 0:18:21 What I do is just because it’s fun is occasionally I help out with things like the kids’ school 0:18:24 or something like that, more just because it makes me feel good, but they don’t really 0:18:25 need it. 0:18:31 It’s something I really enjoy and I want a really nice relationship with my niece and 0:18:32 nephew. 0:18:36 I just love the idea of them finding out at some point that I helped out with their school. 0:18:41 I do it just as a means of hoping that it’ll strengthen my relationship with them when 0:18:42 they’re adults. 0:18:47 Do you think people should kind of factor that in when it comes to economic planning? 0:18:54 I mean, you talked about planning with your partner, how much do we intend to make? 0:18:55 What are our goals? 0:18:59 Do you think people should be thinking, and this is how much I want to be providing for 0:19:00 my family? 0:19:04 Is this how much I want to have stowed away to take care of my parents when they’re old, 0:19:05 et cetera? 0:19:09 I think that because at the end of the day, your ability to do that is going to be based 0:19:10 on how much money you have. 0:19:16 I think you should just be focused on what we talk about, the algebra of wealth, finding 0:19:19 something you’re good at, doubling down on it, becoming great at it, which will give you 0:19:23 economic currency in the marketplace, trying to spend less than you make, invest that money, 0:19:27 develop an army of capital you can deploy, recognize time is going to go faster than 0:19:32 you think, and then diversify such that you’re in a position to be generous with your family 0:19:35 and extended family. 0:19:38 You need to affix your own oxygen mass first, and when you’re young, your parents probably 0:19:41 aren’t sick and don’t need help, you don’t have kids to take care of, that’s the time 0:19:48 to develop that savings muscle and that professional currency, and put yourself on a path to financial 0:19:49 security. 0:19:50 Let me flip the question back to you, Ed. 0:19:55 You have parents, you’re making good money, but you’re not wealthy. 0:19:58 What’s your approach and your thinking around helping out your parents and your approach 0:20:00 to saving for that? 0:20:01 Is that something you’re actively thinking about? 0:20:08 Both of my parents are fine, so I’m not worried about them from that aspect, but I think the 0:20:13 thing that you mentioned with your sister, the fact that your sister is doing, yeah, 0:20:17 the hard work, getting on the phone, figuring out where they should be staying, how to take 0:20:23 care of them, those are things that I have been thinking about progressively a little 0:20:24 bit more. 0:20:29 I mean, my grandad is very sick at the moment, I’m about to go visit him this weekend, and 0:20:35 I’ve been seeing this play out in real time of just the responsibility of everyone. 0:20:39 It suddenly kicks in at that point when you suddenly realize that life is fine, and everyone 0:20:46 suddenly gets their act together and starts thinking, okay, how do I pay it back? 0:20:51 I guess I just asked the economic planning question because I’m only just now thinking 0:20:52 of that. 0:20:58 I’m only now seeing it because I see death around the corner, and now I’m thinking, oh, 0:20:59 did I get my act together right now? 0:21:01 I’m not necessarily sure how I can. 0:21:03 When you see your act together, what do you mean? 0:21:08 Do I need to be planning such that I can provide for my parents? 0:21:15 Do I need to be making sure that I’m taking care of them too, which, you know, my parents 0:21:17 have always taken care of me. 0:21:23 So I guess there’s a moment where you start thinking that the script should be flipped. 0:21:27 It feels like for you, when your mom got really sick, that was that moment. 0:21:29 Yeah, and it happened at about exactly your age. 0:21:34 My mom first got diagnosed with cancer when I was exactly your age. 0:21:38 It was a real wake-up call for me because we had economic stress, and I couldn’t take 0:21:42 care of her, and she ended up with shitty healthcare, and it was just, like, usually 0:21:45 emasculating and frustrating and humiliating, quite frankly. 0:21:48 I was in graduate school, and I think I’ve told this story. 0:21:53 She got discharged from the hospital early, having gone through batteries of chemo and 0:21:57 a mastectomy, and she was at home and called me, and I had to rush home, and it was just 0:22:02 such an ugly scene that I walked into, and I started calling around to get a nurse, and 0:22:07 nurses were $35 an hour, and we didn’t have that money, and I just know what to do. 0:22:10 But you’re thinking about it exactly the right way. 0:22:14 You’re thinking, “Ade, you’re just thinking about it, but the way you address that is 0:22:16 that you’re smart, and you’re doing all the right things. 0:22:17 You’re working hard. 0:22:19 I get the sense you’re saving. 0:22:22 You’re trying to invest. 0:22:25 Most people don’t invest at your age, and you’re working hard and trying to establish 0:22:26 professional relevance.” 0:22:32 So, that, quite frankly, with your parents, money kind of solves not all problems, but 0:22:33 most of them. 0:22:37 If you haven’t have money, as long as you have siblings, you have siblings, right? 0:22:38 You have two sisters. 0:22:41 Between the three of you, especially if you have a good relationship with them, and they’re 0:22:46 like-minded and generous around, and feel obligated to pitch in and help with your parents, one 0:22:51 of you might be wealthier than the other two, and be able to help more with money. 0:22:55 One might have a better relationship and be able to spend more time with your parents, 0:22:59 because they just get along with them better or have more time, and one might hopefully 0:23:05 have their shit together logistically, and be able to kind of handle and negotiate stuff. 0:23:09 There’s the money part, but the thing that’s, I think, been rougher than my sister’s had 0:23:14 to deal with is there’s just so many decisions to be made every day, and not only that, sometimes 0:23:17 your parents aren’t cooperating, right? 0:23:21 They don’t want to leave their house and move into an assisted living facility. 0:23:26 My dad starts leaving the facility and taking walks, and no one knows where he is, and I 0:23:31 have to call him and try and get through to him and tell him he’s not allowed to leave 0:23:39 the facility, and meanwhile, he thinks I’m his brother, not his son. 0:23:44 This stuff gets complicated fast, but I literally don’t know what people do that don’t have 0:23:46 a lot of money. 0:23:49 I am spending so much money on my dad right now, and it’s not a lot of money for me, but 0:23:50 it’s real money. 0:23:52 I don’t know what people do that aren’t wealthy. 0:23:53 Or alone. 0:23:58 That’s been my big observation watching my granddad is, “Oh my God, if this guy didn’t 0:24:02 have family, because that’s all you got at the end, it’s not going to be your friends, 0:24:03 it’s going to be your family.” 0:24:08 If he didn’t have family, if he didn’t have children and grandchildren around, it would 0:24:10 be miserable. 0:24:16 I had what I thought was one of the most stark, depressing moments, you know, when my mom 0:24:20 got sick, I was 26, so my life up into that point had mostly, you know, I’d just gotten, 0:24:24 I’ve been in college grad school, so it’s mostly UCLA games, fraternity parties, smoking 0:24:28 too much pot, watching Planet of the Apes over and over, and then all of a sudden my 0:24:31 mom got sick and everything just shook out real. 0:24:35 And I remember my mom had to go into this healthcare facility. 0:24:40 She was too sick to be at home without care, but she wasn’t sick enough to be in the hospital, 0:24:45 and she was with Kaiser, and Kaiser is basically very cost-conscious, so like, you don’t want 0:24:48 her in the hospital, it’s too expensive to keep her in the hospital. 0:24:52 So she went to, I don’t even know what they call it like, this facility. 0:24:56 And it was literally the place where people who have no money and no one who loves them 0:24:57 go. 0:25:01 And I remember walking into her room, and she was in this room with two cots, and there 0:25:07 were these bad springs that squeaked when she sat up and down, and they had these old 0:25:16 Moscow-like arms, metal arms with a TV, and the woman next to her had the TV turned up 0:25:21 so loud because she couldn’t hear it, and she had the arm extended such that this bad, 0:25:26 old ’70s TV, black and white, was literally in front of her face, and she just kept hitting 0:25:30 it, and the whole place stank of urine. 0:25:34 And there were a bunch of people, old people who looked like they were on death’s doorstep, 0:25:39 just sitting asleep, semi-conscious in their wheelchairs in the hallway. 0:25:43 But I remember walking in there and thinking, this is where people in America end up that 0:25:47 don’t have any money and don’t have anyone that loves them, that is still alive. 0:25:54 And it was such like a stark reminder that in America, one, you want to have money, and 0:25:59 two, you really want to invest in relationships such that someone is there to look out for 0:26:00 you. 0:26:02 Do you end up broken alone in America? 0:26:04 God, it’s fucking ugly. 0:26:07 100%. 0:26:17 On that note, ah, there we go, there we go, who’s buying Supreme, and are they overpaying? 0:26:28 Oh my God, broken alone, on today’s, on today’s ROFG markets, what’s it like to be broke with 0:26:29 no one who loves you? 0:26:30 Here’s a message from Betahelp. 0:26:32 Yeah, there you go. 0:26:33 Jesus Christ. 0:26:50 I’m going to leave for a mattress ad right off to this. 0:26:52 Fox Creative. 0:26:55 This is Advertiser content from Zell. 0:27:00 The recruiter said all I needed to do was send $500 to cover mandatory safety training 0:27:03 and the job was mine. 0:27:07 In a world where financial crimes are more and more sophisticated, there’s a team that’s 0:27:08 got your back. 0:27:09 Yee-haw! 0:27:14 Come in, Safe Squad, we got a 10-3. 0:27:17 Copy that dispatch, we’re on it. 0:27:22 Hop in, Skip, we got a phony recruiter. 0:27:24 Safe Squad. 0:27:26 The crime drama everyone is talking about. 0:27:31 I know it’s only my first day, but that sounds like a pretty cut-and-dry job scam. 0:27:33 Strap in, rookie. 0:27:37 These days criminals can even make it look like it’s your bank calm, but that’s where 0:27:38 we come in. 0:27:39 My what? 0:27:41 It’s my savings account. 0:27:42 Compromised. 0:27:43 Uh-huh. 0:27:44 Uh-huh. 0:27:45 No, I won’t hold. 0:27:46 Uh-huh. 0:27:47 Uh-huh. 0:27:50 No, I didn’t authorize a $12,000 withdrawal, that’s my life savings. 0:27:51 Why don’t you come with me? 0:27:54 I’ll show you how to report to the FTC. 0:27:56 What payment platform did you use? 0:27:58 Let’s contact them, too. 0:28:01 Don’t miss the TV event of the season, Safe Squad. 0:28:02 Hey Ace. 0:28:03 Yeah, kid? 0:28:04 You’re right. 0:28:07 That was one hell of a first day. 0:28:11 Learn how you can spot the signs of a scam so you don’t have to call the Safe Squad by 0:28:16 visiting www.vox.com/SafeSquadHQ. 0:28:28 Remember, never send money online to people you don’t already know and trust. 0:28:29 Hey, this is Scott Galloway, host of the PropG podcast. 0:28:33 One of my favorite things I get to do on this show is hear from our listeners and answer 0:28:37 their burning questions about all sorts of things, including work, life, school. 0:28:38 You name it. 0:28:42 And this summer, we’re bringing back the hits and covering some of our favorite questions 0:28:43 and takes. 0:28:47 Talking business, career advice, and even hearing a brand new, never been aired interview 0:28:48 about parenthood. 0:28:52 So tune in to the best of office hours, the special series from the PropG podcast sponsored 0:28:54 by Mint Mobile. 0:29:00 You can find it on the PropG feed wherever you get your podcasts. 0:29:02 You know what’s great about ambition? 0:29:03 You can’t see it. 0:29:07 Some things look ambitious, but looks can be deceiving. 0:29:13 For example, a runner could be training for a marathon or they could be late for the 0:29:14 bus. 0:29:16 You never know. 0:29:21 Ambition is on the inside, so that road trip bucket list, get after it. 0:29:31 Drive your ambition Mitsubishi Motors. 0:29:33 We’re back with PropG Markets. 0:29:35 Do you talk about money with your kids? 0:29:36 A little bit. 0:29:37 Not a lot. 0:29:44 We try to connect money to effort and what’s interesting is they’ve, I think they’ve kind 0:29:45 of figured it out on their own. 0:29:48 I don’t know, I don’t know how professionally confident they’re going to be or how much 0:29:52 money to make, but they’re not crazy spenders. 0:29:55 My older one, it kind of bums me out. 0:29:58 So it’s just the worst fucking thing in the world that they all have this haircut that 0:30:03 makes them look like an alpaca and I literally can’t handle it. 0:30:06 I want to drug them and cut their hair. 0:30:10 You know, my boys are so beautiful, they’re so handsome, and I know exactly the haircut 0:30:15 I want for them and they just, and they show up looking like this. 0:30:20 It’s awful that they look like a farm animal, it’s overgrown hair, it just, anyway. 0:30:25 But my oldest, so I was really excited, my oldest is going back, you know, I want to 0:30:28 take them out and get them some really cool clothes and I’m trying to figure out what the 0:30:29 cool brands are and I’m like, let’s go. 0:30:32 We went to Sunspeal and I’m like, I’ll catch this cool. 0:30:35 And I bought, there was this cool hoodie and it was like two or 300 bucks and he’s like, 0:30:37 I’m not going to spend that much. 0:30:39 I’m like, yeah, you’re not going to spend that much, but I’ll buy it for you. 0:30:41 He’s like, no, no, no, I don’t want you to buy it. 0:30:46 He can’t, he’s like his mom, he doesn’t like to spend money even when it’s my money. 0:30:49 And of course, the other brother pops up and he’s like, I want it, can I have two? 0:30:50 Can I have his? 0:30:53 So somehow they both ended up in different places. 0:30:56 It’s like when Michelle Obama said, the kids just come to you. 0:30:59 You like to think you’re an engineer, you’re not. 0:31:02 And so I’d like to think we’re doing a good job of connecting them to money, but I think 0:31:07 what’s strange is they don’t have a sense for how much money we have. 0:31:10 And what I try to do, I’m thinking about taking them into Africa with Scott Harrison from 0:31:11 Charity Water. 0:31:17 I just need them to see how not most people, but some people live and recognize that a 0:31:23 lot of what their success and privilege is not their fault and that the majority of people 0:31:27 in this world do not get to live like they live. 0:31:31 And I don’t blame them for not understanding that because they’ve been sheltered from it, 0:31:32 but that’s one thing we want to do. 0:31:36 But they’re pretty good around, they’re pretty good. 0:31:40 My youngest, I’m working with my youngest on the sneaker business using AI around went 0:31:44 to bid on drops for shoes and what the resale value is and we’re trying to set up a site 0:31:49 on Shopify, you know, and every week I lose money on it, but he sort of gets it. 0:31:54 He understands, okay, buy a shoe for 200 bucks and try and sell it for 300. 0:31:57 And he’s thinking about what’s the best way to drop ship for the lowest money, but it 0:32:01 has good customer service because he wants to get good reviews. 0:32:02 So that’s great. 0:32:03 He’s going to be more of the entrepreneur. 0:32:06 I think my older one is much more conservative, doesn’t like to spend money. 0:32:10 I think he’ll end up being a professional, but we don’t talk, like I’ve never told them 0:32:14 how much money we have or anything like that or, but so far, I’ve been really lucky. 0:32:19 They’re not, I mean, granted, they’re just about to turn 14 and 17, so they’re not crazy 0:32:20 spenders. 0:32:21 They just don’t spend a lot. 0:32:22 Do they know you’re rich? 0:32:23 Yeah. 0:32:24 There’s no way not to figure it out. 0:32:32 I mean, we fly private, you know, they don’t, words out, words out that we have money. 0:32:33 And they’re kind of fascinated. 0:32:34 My youngest is fascinated by money. 0:32:38 We went to the finals in the world, you know, the finals of the Euros and he said, how much 0:32:39 were these tickets? 0:32:40 I’m like, I’m not going to tell you. 0:32:43 And he’s like, do you like wants to know and he’s looking at my phone and he wants to 0:32:46 know how much the tickets were and that’s an interesting one. 0:32:51 Like, why do you not want to tell them how rich you, I mean, they know that you’re rich 0:32:56 but you don’t want them to know how rich and you don’t want, really want to put a number 0:32:57 on it. 0:32:58 What’s your philosophy there? 0:33:03 It just feels weird to tell my son, yeah, I’m spending 10,000 pounds on a soccer game. 0:33:05 So we can go. 0:33:10 I feel like that’s going to disconnect them from the value of money at that age. 0:33:12 So how do you teach them the value? 0:33:15 I mean, the Africa idea is one. 0:33:20 Is there anything else you do to kind of be like, hey, this isn’t normal? 0:33:21 It’s weird. 0:33:24 They sort of made the connection a little bit on their own because I don’t think it’s 0:33:26 been great parenting. 0:33:29 I had this really wonderful moment with my youngest. 0:33:34 He has a friend from school who doesn’t have a lot of money and his friend accidentally 0:33:39 poured milk or spilled milk on his headphones and they were ruined. 0:33:46 And so he came to me and he said, dad, I want to buy my friend a pair of the AirPod Max’s 0:33:51 that big cans to go over your ears and he said, if I put in a hundred bucks, will you 0:33:52 give me $200? 0:33:55 He’s a super nice kid and he doesn’t have a lot of money and I was just like, I was 0:33:59 just so moved by that and I thought that’s exactly the kind of approach to money I want 0:34:00 my kids to have. 0:34:04 And I said, of course, and any time you want to get money away or do something for someone 0:34:07 else, I’ll contribute. 0:34:09 That was really nice. 0:34:12 But I don’t know where they learned it, didn’t learn it from me. 0:34:13 I don’t think. 0:34:14 I don’t know. 0:34:16 So, I mean, here’s the thing, Ed. 0:34:22 You do your best, but parents are under the delusion that we’re engineers. 0:34:23 We’re shepherds. 0:34:26 We get to choose where the sheep grazes with the food it eats. 0:34:32 Maybe we can point it in the right direction, but be clear, the sheep comes to you. 0:34:36 And I think I hope what they see is that their mom works hard and is really responsible 0:34:42 with money that I work hard and they see how committed we are to our professions. 0:34:47 They see that we’re generous with our money, so I hope that they inherit that. 0:34:48 And they also see that we enjoy it. 0:34:49 I hope they inherit that. 0:34:51 I hope my oldest starts spending. 0:34:56 I’m worried my oldest isn’t going to want to spend any money and not enjoy it. 0:35:01 But I would say we’re just kind of letting it happen, which may not be the right approach. 0:35:04 My kids talk a lot or ask a lot of questions now about money. 0:35:06 They’re very interested in it, especially my youngest. 0:35:09 He asks about stocks, how stock prices are decided. 0:35:12 Yeah, I mean, their dad just wrote a book called The Algebra of Wealth. 0:35:13 I’d be shocked if they didn’t. 0:35:15 Dude, they don’t care what their dad does. 0:35:20 They literally, every time someone stops me on the street, they’re like, “Why do they 0:35:22 know you again?” 0:35:28 They are so befuddled that anyone would find me interesting at all. 0:35:29 They’re like, “What? 0:35:31 Why did this person say hi to you? 0:35:33 What do you do again?” 0:35:34 They just don’t get it. 0:35:40 By the way, the opening note of that book is a message to them, and you say, “I hope 0:35:41 you’ll read this.” 0:35:42 You think they’ll ever read it? 0:35:43 Oh, yeah. 0:35:46 When I’m gone, maybe hopefully before I’m gone, but definitely when I’m gone, I can’t 0:35:51 imagine, I’ve invested, I’d like to think so much time and love in my kids that they’re 0:35:57 going to love me, you’re banking on, you’re going to get a fraction of that back. 0:36:00 And I’d like to think they’ll be interested enough of me to read my books. 0:36:04 Let me just say, I’d be really disappointed if they didn’t at some point. 0:36:05 They will. 0:36:08 They’re going to be curious, so yeah, I think so. 0:36:09 I think it’s gross. 0:36:10 I hope so at least. 0:36:14 Have you thought more about estate planning and inheritance? 0:36:19 Yeah, I think about it a lot because now that we have real money, you have to think about 0:36:20 it and be smart about it. 0:36:22 So we work with our folks. 0:36:23 Goldman manages our money. 0:36:25 I have a lawyer, I have a tax lawyer, and they set up a trust. 0:36:30 We’re trying to figure out what to put into the trust, how to take advantage of the limits 0:36:34 on trust, figure out if Biden is going to lower the trust limit. 0:36:35 There’s all this… 0:36:36 It’s a lot of tax planning. 0:36:40 The tax code is so complicated that, and this is an advantage for wealthy people because 0:36:44 you can kind of weaponize and maneuver through it if you’re smart. 0:36:48 You want to run boat races at night if you have GPS. 0:36:52 And so the more complicated you make the race, the more advantage sheets to people who can 0:36:57 afford the technology, in this case, the advisors to help you navigate a boat race at night. 0:36:59 But yeah, I think a lot about the trust. 0:37:05 I also think about my partner is 15 years younger than me, and women usually live seven 0:37:06 years longer. 0:37:08 So she’s going to be around about 22 years longer. 0:37:13 But now I’m trying to set up, what I am thinking about is putting stuff in assets that will… 0:37:17 Like apartments, rental apartments that will spin off income because I’m turning into that. 0:37:21 I hate to say that, person thinking about… 0:37:26 So my kids have enough money that they’re never broke, and my kid isn’t going to come 0:37:28 run property media. 0:37:32 My kid isn’t going to take one of my analytics companies and be the CEO there. 0:37:36 But maybe if one of my kids doesn’t have their own professional trajectory, I like the idea 0:37:39 that maybe they could manage some apartment buildings, and that’s probably the wrong way 0:37:40 to think about it. 0:37:43 But I am thinking about intergenerational wealth. 0:37:48 But more than anything, what I’m spending the most time on is just making sure that my partner 0:37:50 is really comfortable after I’m gone. 0:37:54 This is kind of a turnaround from what you’ve said in the post, which is, I think you’ve 0:37:58 said you don’t want to leave anything to your kids. 0:38:03 Well, that’s mostly joking to justify my out-of-control spending. 0:38:04 Buffets summarize it perfectly. 0:38:07 I want my kids to have enough money so they can do anything, but not enough money so they 0:38:09 can do nothing. 0:38:11 So I’ll set up a trust for them. 0:38:14 My partner, assuming she lives a quarter century longer than me, is going to have to figure 0:38:15 it out. 0:38:19 But I’m putting in place the mechanics of it such that after she’s gone, they’ll get 0:38:23 some money when they turn 21, we’re going to give most of it away, but we’ll leave enough 0:38:27 for them such that they can afford a house, any education they want, and maybe a little 0:38:35 bit more, and have access to a little of it at 25, 35, and then access to all of it. 0:38:37 But I think about this a lot. 0:38:42 It’s a huge issue for wealthy people because you don’t want indulgent jerks. 0:38:47 And also a huge motivator for me was the fear of if I didn’t make money, I wasn’t going 0:38:48 to have any. 0:38:50 That’s incredibly motivating. 0:38:55 When you worry about taking away that motivation, but I’m not one of those people, it’s really 0:39:00 easy to say, “Yeah, once they’re through college, that’s it, they’re on their own.” 0:39:02 Yeah, I never find any parent does that. 0:39:07 None of my friends have done that, have cut off their kids, none of them. 0:39:09 I have really good friends. 0:39:13 My really good friends, Greg and Cindy, have done a really good job of kind of maturing 0:39:18 really competent, self-sufficient adults. 0:39:21 They’ve been pretty disciplined about saying, “Okay, you get a certain amount of money 0:39:25 and help you go to college and you get a certain kind of allowance, but at some point, you’re 0:39:26 on your own.” 0:39:28 I don’t know if I’ll have that discipline. 0:39:29 I don’t know. 0:39:31 I haven’t fully figured it out yet. 0:39:33 We’ll just end with this last question. 0:39:40 If there’s one thing you want your children to understand about money once you die, what 0:39:41 would it be? 0:39:44 It’s really important, but it’s a means. 0:39:48 It’s meaningful, but what’s profound is that money is nothing but something that should 0:39:54 enable you to have an absence of stress such you can focus on relationships, that you need 0:39:57 to be professionally competent, you need to be self-sufficient. 0:40:03 Making money is a lot of fun, but it’s just a means to the ends, and the ends is deep 0:40:07 and meaningful relationships, and that money can be a lubricant for that and provide an 0:40:12 absence of stress and a series of experiences that make you feel closer to the people you 0:40:16 love and help you take care of them. 0:40:20 This episode was produced by Claire Miller and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. 0:40:22 Our associate producer is Alison Weiss. 0:40:24 Our executive producer is Katherine Dillon. 0:40:28 Mia Silverio is our research lead and Drew Burroughs is our technical director. 0:40:31 Thank you for listening to Proffdue Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network. 0:40:33 We’ll be back with a fresh take on markets on Thursday. 0:40:43 [MUSIC] 0:40:53 . 0:41:07 Hey, this is Scott. 0:41:15 Hey, this is Scott Galloway, host of the Proffdue Podcast. 0:41:20 One of my favorite things I get to do on this show is hear from our listeners and answer 0:41:24 their burning questions about all sorts of things, including work, life, school. 0:41:25 You name it. 0:41:28 And this summer, we’re bringing back the hits and covering some of our favorite questions 0:41:29 and takes. 0:41:33 We’re talking business, career advice, and even hearing a brand new, never been aired 0:41:35 interview about parenthood. 0:41:39 Retune into the best of office hours with a special series from the Proffdue Podcast 0:41:41 sponsored by Mint Mobile. 0:41:44 You can find it on the Proffdue feed wherever you get your podcasts. 0:41:47 (upbeat music)
Scott explains how he approaches money with his partner, his parents, and his children. He gives advice for having difficult conversations about economic hardship. Ed asks for advice around saving money to take care of his family in the future. Scott also breaks down how he tries to connect money with effort when talking about wealth with his kids. Finally, he shares the one thing he hopes his kids will understand about money when he’s gone.
0:00:03 You know what’s great about ambition? 0:00:03 You can’t see it. 0:00:06 Some things look ambitious, 0:00:07 but looks can be deceiving. 0:00:12 For example, a runner could be training for a marathon, 0:00:14 or they could be late for the bus. 0:00:15 You never know. 0:00:18 Ambition is on the inside, 0:00:20 so that goal to be the ultimate soccer parent? 0:00:22 Keep chasing it. 0:00:24 Drive your ambition. 0:00:25 Mitsubishi Motors 0:00:30 This episode is brought to you by Secret. 0:00:34 Secret deodorant gives you 72 hours of clinically proven odor protection, 0:00:38 free of aluminum, parabens, dyes, talc, and baking soda. 0:00:41 It’s made with pH-balancing minerals 0:00:43 and crafted with skin-conditioning oils. 0:00:46 So whether you’re going for a run or just running late, 0:00:50 do what life throws your way, and smell like you didn’t. 0:00:54 Find Secret at your nearest Walmart or Shoppers Drug Mart today. 0:01:00 This is No Mercy, No Malice. 0:01:02 After hearing this, 0:01:06 many listeners will accuse me of Trump derangement syndrome, TDS. 0:01:09 I believe I suffer from a different ailment, 0:01:16 DAS, Democracy Addiction Syndrome, and daddy needs his fix. 0:01:20 Today’s post is an updated version of one written a year ago. 0:01:24 While things have changed, a lot, since last August, 0:01:28 my argument not only holds up, it’s gotten stronger. 0:01:34 Art of the Plea Deal, as read by George Hahn. 0:01:42 It’s increasingly likely Trump will exit the presidential race 0:01:46 in exchange for an omnibus deal across jurisdictions 0:01:48 that keeps him out of jail. 0:01:51 The rise of Kamala Harris, 0:01:56 and the growing probability that the former president will lose in November 0:01:59 make the logic colder and more compelling. 0:02:05 Opinion polls show Harris ahead of or tied with Trump 0:02:07 in six of the seven critical swing states. 0:02:12 She’s beating him, for instance, in North Carolina, 0:02:14 which he just barely won in 2020, 0:02:18 and where Biden had been struggling even before the debate disaster. 0:02:24 It’s not the poll numbers themselves, which are all within the margin of error, 0:02:28 but the Harris Wall’s tickets momentum going into the DNC, 0:02:32 which historically provides a four to six point polling bump. 0:02:38 By the end of the month, Harris could have a high single digit edge 0:02:40 with nine weeks until election day. 0:02:44 This is similar to the margin that compelled Nancy Pelosi 0:02:49 to march up to the West Wing until President Biden to sign his resignation. 0:02:52 With his pen or his blood. 0:02:58 This May, Trump was convicted of 34 counts of fraud 0:03:01 by a New York jury in the Stormy Daniels case. 0:03:04 The weakest case against him. 0:03:07 Sentencing has been held up while he appeals, 0:03:12 and it’s unlikely he’ll see any jail time as a first time nonviolent offender. 0:03:16 The other cases, federal trials involving January 6th 0:03:19 and the allegedly illegal possession of classified documents, 0:03:24 and the Georgia case about trying to overturn the 2020 results there, 0:03:25 are different stories. 0:03:30 They’re much stronger, but have been delayed by Trump’s appeals 0:03:33 and moves to get judges and prosecutors replaced. 0:03:36 None of them will come to trial before the election, 0:03:38 and if he wins, they probably never will. 0:03:42 If he loses, though, he will face trial 0:03:46 and the real possibility of conviction and incarceration. 0:03:53 It’ll take time, but the gears of accountability and justice grind forward. 0:04:00 Harris has revitalized her party with a campaign that emphasizes youth, 0:04:02 optimism, and hope for the future. 0:04:07 She’s done this by saying, wait for it, nothing. 0:04:14 Trump has done her job for her as she continues his grievance/rage tour. 0:04:19 The age issue has turned from a bug into a feature for the Democrats. 0:04:24 The earth has shifted under Trump, and he’s stumbling. 0:04:29 Recent better inflation numbers and the likelihood of a Fed rate cut soon 0:04:31 will help Harris, too. 0:04:36 Also, somebody forgot to tell Trump he’s no longer running against Biden. 0:04:42 He’s ranting that the guy who dropped out weeks ago is “close to vegetable state” 0:04:47 and hallucinating scenarios in which Biden still gets the Democratic nomination. 0:04:52 If “get off my lawn” were an LLM, it would be the Trump campaign. 0:04:58 President Trump is an obese 78-year-old male. 0:05:04 The average 80-year-old has a life expectancy of another 8 years. 0:05:10 Trump’s obesity and prison would probably cut that in half, 0:05:15 meaning any sentence greater than 48 months is a life sentence. 0:05:21 Incarceration, balanced against a life post-deal of golf clubs, 0:05:27 sycophants, and porn stars, should weigh heavily on even the most delusional psyche. 0:05:31 How serious is the threat of prison? 0:05:34 Federal prosecutors rarely lose. 0:05:42 In 2021, 94% of defendants charged with a federal felony were convicted. 0:05:46 State and local prosecutors convict at high rates as well. 0:05:52 The Atlanta office, which indicted Trump, boasts a 90% conviction rate. 0:05:59 Of those convicted by the feds, 74% received prison time. 0:06:05 In cases from mishandling national security documents specifically, 0:06:09 the DOJ regularly obtains multi-year sentences. 0:06:15 And the documents case against the former president is notable for the weight of the evidence, 0:06:20 including audio of him sharing military secrets he admits weren’t declassified, 0:06:25 the sensitivity of the papers, and his blatant obstruction. 0:06:31 Offenses the DOJ and courts take very seriously. 0:06:36 It’s not any one case that cements Trump’s fate, 0:06:41 but the compounding risk of his several indictments. 0:06:47 Generally, defendants have a three-in-ten chance of escaping an indictment without prison. 0:06:54 A 30% chance of prevailing four times in a row is just under one percent. 0:06:58 That’s a one percent chance of not going to prison. 0:07:05 Okay, but Trump is not a typical defendant, and no case against him will be straightforward. 0:07:12 He has unlimited resources and can deploy the full apparatus of a billionaire’s legal defense. 0:07:19 In addition, there is a non-zero probability any jury will have a Trumper who refuses to convict. 0:07:26 Also, prosecuting each case presents obstacles, not least of which is the Supreme Court decision, 0:07:29 granting Trump immunity for official actions as president. 0:07:36 So let’s improve his odds of exoneration from three-in-ten to eight-in-ten. 0:07:43 Only a 20% chance in each case that he’s convicted and sent to prison. 0:07:54 The math is still ugly. 0.8 to the fourth power equals 0.41, 0:08:03 which means Trump has only a 41% chance of escaping prison, even when given exceptional odds. 0:08:08 The most favorable math still lands him in prison. 0:08:16 There are two get-out-of-jail cards. One, he retakes the White House, 0:08:20 or two, he, see-above, reaches a plea deal. 0:08:28 The prison vaccine is Trump winning the presidency, or another GOP candidate winning and pardoning him. 0:08:35 That resolves the federal charges, the greatest threats, and Trump likely believes he or some 0:08:42 other Republican president could shut down the remaining prosecutions. Note, if he were totally 0:08:47 focused on staying out of prison, he’d find a way to draft Nikki Haley to take his spot at the 0:08:54 top of the ticket. I believe she’d win, cause played Gerald Ford and pardon Trump. Think about it. 0:09:03 90% of the states are foregone conclusions. Pundits agree that only a handful of states will 0:09:11 matter. Harris only needs to win three of these states to take the White House, Michigan, Pennsylvania, 0:09:20 and Wisconsin. And the odds are looking good. Great, even. Biden won all three in 2020. Plus, 0:09:27 there’s the Sun Belt in North Carolina, where Harris is now ahead, reflects how change hasn’t 0:09:36 been good for Trump. He won the state in 2020 by 1.3%, but it’s in transition, a microcosm of 0:09:43 the broader challenge the GOP faces. Its base is older and whiter, and that population is giving 0:09:51 way to a younger, more diverse, better educated electorate. More likely to vote blue. Nationwide, 0:09:58 since Trump won the White House in 2016, 32 million young people have become eligible to vote, 0:10:04 and 20 million elderly voters have died, a swing of as much as 52 million voters. 0:10:10 These younger citizens vote in greater numbers than previous younger generations, 0:10:18 and they show no signs of becoming more conservative as they age. This will be the Gen Z, or Gen Zoom, 0:10:27 election. The closer we get to a Trump loss in 2024, the more his currency for a plea deal 0:10:34 diminishes. A loss would cement the notion that he has cost the party too much for too long. 0:10:41 Traditional Republican leaders are jonesing to see the back of Trump, and his acolytes now have 0:10:48 power bases of their own. Fox will abandon him. The cloud cover provided by Lindsey Graham, 0:10:55 Sean Hannity, and other sycophants will disappear, and the pool of jurors who’d refuse to convict 0:11:01 will shrink. He’ll also lose access to any backroom influence his political allies might 0:11:08 bring to bear on the DOJ or state and local prosecutorial offices. Trump won’t like making 0:11:15 the deal, but the decision will be easier than many people think. He has no observable ideological 0:11:22 commitment or loyalty to the Republican Party. In the 2022 midterms, Trump amassed a war chest 0:11:35 of $108 million and gave zero to GOP candidates. And he gives up all the time. His track record 0:11:42 is quitting. From his six bankruptcies, including the Trump Taj Mahal Casino, to his innumerable 0:11:48 abandoned projects, such as his defunct New Jersey General’s football team and the disgraced 0:11:55 education for-profit Trump University. And people who know him, including his former chief of staff 0:12:02 John Kelly and his former footstool Chris Christie, say he has a real fear of going to jail. 0:12:11 In some, Trump’s odds of landing in prison are perhaps 50/50 right now and likely to get worse 0:12:19 as we approach the election. Is there a deal to be had? It wouldn’t be easy, but the array of 0:12:23 prosecutors could work together to strike an agreement, for their own sake and the good of 0:12:30 the nation. A coordinated negotiation would be complex, but nothing precludes the effort. 0:12:38 The alternative is worse. Trials would be circuses, convictions would be subject to years of appeals, 0:12:45 and any ultimate incarceration would be a logistical nightmare. And when we step 0:12:52 back from the details of these cases, what should the US be seeking? Is it accountability? 0:13:00 Or for the nation to move on? The answer is yes, and a plea deal achieves this. 0:13:08 There’s a broader lesson here. Our successes and failures are not a function of probability, 0:13:17 but patterns. Our actions, like interest, compound. A single-kind act may go unnoticed, 0:13:25 but kindness fosters enduring relationships and goodwill. Criminal acts may or may not 0:13:33 may or may not result in punishment, but criminality screams for justice’s attention, 0:13:39 and justice, while slow to act, is always listening. 0:13:45 Life is so rich. 0:13:55 [Music]
0:00:03 Support for the show comes from ServiceNow, 0:00:05 the AI platform for business transformation. 0:00:07 You’ve heard the big hype around AI. 0:00:09 The truth is AI is only as powerful 0:00:11 as the platform it’s built into. 0:00:13 ServiceNow is the platform that puts AI 0:00:15 to work for people across your business, 0:00:18 removing friction and frustration for your employees, 0:00:20 supercharging productivity for your developers, 0:00:22 providing intelligent tools for your service agents 0:00:24 to make customers happier. 0:00:27 All built into a single platform you can use right now. 0:00:29 That’s why the world works with ServiceNow. 0:00:33 Visit servicenow.com/aiforpeople to learn more. 0:00:38 – I’m Anusa Ramonyan from Vox Media. 0:00:40 While I see them all around the city, 0:00:43 I’ve never ridden in an autonomous vehicle myself. 0:00:45 I do have some questions about the tech. 0:00:46 You may as well. 0:00:48 – Hello, from Waymo. 0:00:50 This experience may feel futuristic. 0:00:52 – This is so cool. 0:00:55 – Vox and Waymo teamed up for an in-depth study 0:00:57 about AV perception. 0:00:59 And what they found was that as people learned more 0:01:01 about Waymo, their interest in choosing one 0:01:04 over a human-driven vehicle almost doubled. 0:01:06 – Person approaching. 0:01:10 – Waymo can see 360 degrees and up to 300 meters away, 0:01:12 which helps it obey traffic laws 0:01:14 and get you where you’re going safely. 0:01:16 Swiss Re found that compared to human drivers, 0:01:20 Waymo reported 100% fewer injury claims 0:01:23 and 76% fewer property damage claims. 0:01:26 And speaking of safety, folks identifying as LGBTQIA 0:01:30 and non-binary showed the highest interest in AVs. 0:01:32 And women showed the greatest increase in interest 0:01:33 after learning more. 0:01:37 – Arriving shortly at your destination. 0:01:40 – So that actually felt totally normal. 0:01:42 AVs are here, and the more you know, 0:01:44 the more exciting this tech becomes. 0:01:46 You can learn more about Waymo, 0:01:48 the world’s most experienced driver, 0:01:50 by heading to Waymo.com. 0:01:53 – Episode 312, 312 is a year ago, 0:01:54 belonging to Chicago, Illinois. 0:01:57 In 1912, the Titanic hit an iceberg and sank. 0:02:01 And the Girl Scouts of the USA were founded. 0:02:03 Why do Girl Scout cookies taste so good? 0:02:05 Job labor. 0:02:09 Go, go, go! 0:02:12 (upbeat music) 0:02:19 – Welcome to the 312th episode of the Proxy Pot. 0:02:23 The dog is on vacation for the rest of August. 0:02:24 We’re gonna go to one of those dog farms 0:02:26 where I play with 30 other dogs, 0:02:27 roll around in deer urine. 0:02:30 You know, the usual, August, Augusto. 0:02:32 All month long on Thursdays, 0:02:34 you can expect conversations with blue flame thinkers, 0:02:37 innovators, professors, authors, and the like. 0:02:40 I didn’t write that, I would never say and the like. 0:02:42 Today, we’re sharing our interview with Nate Silver, 0:02:45 the founder of 538 and the New York Times bestselling author 0:02:47 of The Signal and the Noise. 0:02:50 He also writes the sub-stack, Silver Bulletin. 0:02:53 We discussed with Nate his latest book On the Edge, 0:02:55 The Art of Risking Everything. 0:02:56 I could write a book called On the Edge 0:03:00 about fucking depression, anxiety, and turning 50 0:03:02 and looking like you’re fucking 80 years old. 0:03:05 That’s what it would mean to be on the edge, Nate. 0:03:07 Anyway, we hear about the role of risk 0:03:10 in shaping modern life, his background in election forecasting, 0:03:14 and his thoughts on Kamala Harris’s VP pic. 0:03:17 Oh, that’s kinda, that’s what you call timely. 0:03:19 That’s why you come to the Prop G pod. 0:03:21 That’s why you come to the PGP, if you will. 0:03:24 We really enjoyed this conversation 0:03:26 and thank you, Will, as well. 0:03:30 Nate, where does this podcast find you? 0:03:31 – At home in New York, Manhattan. 0:03:33 – You live in the city, where do you live in the city? 0:03:35 – What would charityally be called Chelsea? 0:03:38 Kinda by Penn Station, Madison Square Garden, basically. 0:03:41 – So let’s talk about your new book On the Edge, 0:03:43 The Art of Risking Everything. 0:03:47 You investigate the river, the community of like-minded people 0:03:49 whose mastery of risk allows them to shape 0:03:52 and dominate so much of our modern world. 0:03:54 Can you explain what you mean by the river? 0:03:57 – So I have a very kind of geographic mind. 0:03:59 I like a good geographic memory 0:04:01 and I like looking at maps and things like that. 0:04:05 So I kinda wanted to create a metaphorical place 0:04:07 where a certain type of person lives. 0:04:09 And this type of person has two 0:04:10 basically defining characteristics. 0:04:12 One is that they’re super analytical. 0:04:16 They’re kind of in the moneyball, math nerd tradition 0:04:17 for the most part, so they’re playing poker 0:04:20 or founding companies or things like that. 0:04:25 The other is that they’re extremely insanely competitive, 0:04:28 which makes them really risk taking for the most part. 0:04:30 They wanna win, they wanna prove things to themselves 0:04:32 and other people. 0:04:34 They aren’t afraid to stand out. 0:04:37 They can be contrarian to the point of sometimes being 0:04:39 more than a bit annoying, I think. 0:04:42 But I kept finding the same personality type 0:04:43 in all the different fields that I cover. 0:04:46 I mean, I kind of started in the world of poker. 0:04:48 I actually have a background as a professional poker player. 0:04:51 But if you talk to people in Silicon Valley 0:04:56 or people trading crypto or people making sports bets 0:04:58 or even the effective altruists who we’ll talk to 0:05:01 a little bit later and the AI people, 0:05:04 they all have this kind of same competitive nerd 0:05:06 analytical personality in mind. 0:05:09 They speak the same language and it’s a small community. 0:05:14 The river is a community of mostly successful elites, 0:05:15 I guess you’d call them. 0:05:16 And you go to Silicon Valley, 0:05:18 it’s kind of a small world still. 0:05:21 It’s not sprawling through thousands of people. 0:05:24 The top VC firms might have a dozen partners or something, 0:05:25 but not hundreds. 0:05:29 And so there’s more community than I would have thought. 0:05:32 And you’ve seen that community have a rivalry more and more 0:05:34 with this other community that I call the village. 0:05:37 – And talk about the distinction between folks in the river 0:05:39 and folks in the village. 0:05:42 – Yeah, so the village is basically, 0:05:44 if you think of it as kind of New York, Boston, Washington, 0:05:45 maybe except for like Wall Street. 0:05:49 So it’s like government, media and academia. 0:05:52 So the kind of quintessential river village rather institutions 0:05:55 are like Harvard University and the New York times. 0:05:58 So it’s politically progressive for the most part. 0:06:02 As compared to the river, it’s much less analytical. 0:06:06 In fact, it’s very concerned about social status 0:06:07 and social appearances. 0:06:10 The ultimate punishment in the village 0:06:12 is to be ostracized or I suppose canceled. 0:06:15 That’s becoming a little bit outmoded. 0:06:17 And it’s risk averse. 0:06:18 It’s kind of neurotic. 0:06:20 It was much more cautious during COVID. 0:06:22 It’s afraid of offending people. 0:06:25 And there’s a rivalry between these two communities 0:06:27 increasingly when you see things like, 0:06:30 I guess it was last year, maybe in January, 0:06:32 when you see like hedge fund investors attacking 0:06:35 like university presidents who are speaking before Congress, 0:06:37 that’s an open conflict, I would say. 0:06:40 When you see people in Silicon Valley 0:06:41 kind of going more to war 0:06:44 with like the Democratic Party establishment, 0:06:46 we’re actually seeing this kind of play out more and more. 0:06:48 – I mean, I’m loosely the words that come into my mind 0:06:51 are kind of libertarian versus establishment. 0:06:52 Is that fair? 0:06:54 – I think the river would champion itself 0:06:57 as kind of lowercase L libertarian. 0:07:01 And would champion itself as being apolitical, 0:07:03 but of course it’s often hypocritical. 0:07:06 People go from being apolitical to being like Elon Musk, 0:07:10 or you’re very politically charged up on a lot of issues. 0:07:13 I mean, if you did a survey of the people I call riverians, 0:07:16 they’d probably be three to two Democratic 0:07:18 before Republicans still, or two to one maybe. 0:07:21 It’s, I mean, most communities of elites today 0:07:23 where you have high educational credentials 0:07:25 tend to be Democrats in the United States, 0:07:28 but it’s notably more varied than the village, 0:07:33 which is kind of uniformly 95% blue Democratic progressive. 0:07:36 – Talk about what you think are the key habits 0:07:38 of highly effective risk takers 0:07:39 that you talk about in your book. 0:07:41 – There’s a list of 13 of these in the book, 0:07:45 and they kind of fall somewhat into personality characteristics 0:07:48 and somewhat into psychological characteristics. 0:07:50 From a psychological standpoint, 0:07:53 some degree of detachment, 0:07:56 where you’re focused on process and not results. 0:07:59 If you play a poker hand, you can play the hand perfectly. 0:08:01 And if your opponent makes her flush draw, 0:08:04 you’re still gonna lose that hand a third of the time. 0:08:06 That process orientation, I think, 0:08:08 is counterintuitive for most people. 0:08:10 Personality wise, some of it does come down 0:08:14 to simply being willing to take risks and being courageous. 0:08:16 Maybe the single most important defining characteristic 0:08:20 is being cool under pressure in most walks of life. 0:08:23 Higher stakes moments vastly outweigh the day to day. 0:08:25 If you do make it deep in a poker tournament 0:08:27 playing for a million dollar first prize, 0:08:30 it’s more important by a factor of 1,000 X 0:08:33 than your Tuesday night beer league game, for example. 0:08:35 Learning how to handle pressure is important. 0:08:36 I mean, I did, like I said, 0:08:38 talk to mostly people who are doing 0:08:40 analytic math-oriented things. 0:08:44 But I also talked to an astronaut, an explorer, 0:08:46 a military commander, people like this. 0:08:49 And I heard some of those same things over and over. 0:08:51 One thing I heard a lot is don’t try to be a hero 0:08:52 when you’re under pressure, 0:08:54 when you’re like literally in outer space 0:08:57 and some red light is blinking. 0:09:01 Trusting the process, following protocol, 0:09:03 that kind of frees up bandwidth 0:09:05 for dealing with an emergency versus just like winging it. 0:09:08 So it’s a lot of preparation and experience 0:09:10 and coolness under fire. 0:09:12 – It’s interesting because, well, 0:09:15 the way I would try and translate that to entrepreneurship 0:09:19 is I don’t think I’d be nearly as good an entrepreneur now 0:09:20 as I was when I was a younger man. 0:09:22 Because when I was a younger man, 0:09:25 I had a bit of sociopathy in the sense that 0:09:27 it could be awful around me in my business 0:09:30 and we were running out of funding. 0:09:31 And I’d be stressed, 0:09:33 but I would still be able to sleep at night. 0:09:35 I just didn’t, I didn’t, 0:09:37 I was almost sort of sleepwalking through life and didn’t, 0:09:40 and now I’m too anxious. 0:09:42 I’m too kind of concerned about the downside. 0:09:45 Do you think there’s any truth in that? 0:09:46 – For sure. 0:09:49 I think it’s not a coincidence that more founders are younger, 0:09:50 although there’s probably some stereotyping 0:09:52 that takes place some of you sees. 0:09:54 Poker players are often younger too, 0:09:57 despite it being a game that it takes a lifetime to master. 0:10:00 That’s partly also a matter of physical fitness, I think. 0:10:03 But yeah, the ability to like shut out distractions 0:10:05 and be really focused is really hard 0:10:10 and maybe not entirely healthy sometimes either. 0:10:12 But yeah, as you gain more responsibilities, right? 0:10:15 So I played as I do most years, 0:10:17 I went to the World Series of Poker this year and played, 0:10:19 but it’s an election year. 0:10:20 I have this book coming out. 0:10:23 So there were like constant distractions 0:10:26 and it was in my best interest to manage those, right? 0:10:29 I can write newsletter posts and gain subscribers 0:10:32 or book interviews and publicity for the book. 0:10:34 But still, yeah, part of what comes with being an adult, 0:10:36 I think, is you have a little bit more to lose. 0:10:38 That can make you more risk-averse, 0:10:40 you have more responsibilities, and that can be okay. 0:10:43 But if you’re a VC trying to invest in a founder, 0:10:46 you want a founder who has kind of literally 0:10:50 insane single-minded focus, maybe for a period of 10 years, 0:10:52 whatever runway period that you have, 0:10:54 and that not be a younger person’s game. 0:10:58 – People thought people are risk takers and are successful, 0:11:00 are good at taking smart risks. 0:11:02 In other words, to a certain extent, 0:11:06 the risks they take, they do the analysis and go, 0:11:08 there’s a greater upside here that, 0:11:10 you know, a one in betting on a team 0:11:13 that has a 50 to one chance, you get 50 to one odd, 0:11:16 seems like crazy risk, but if you actually have done 0:11:18 the analysis and say the likelihood is more like 30 to one, 0:11:21 that’s a good risk, how would you coach young people 0:11:24 around how they approach risk? 0:11:26 – I think probably 90% of people, 0:11:28 of course, in your probability, 0:11:30 I think probably 90% of people could stand 0:11:34 to be more risk-taking, at least in terms of like 0:11:36 their career lives. 0:11:38 I’m not saying, oh, go do drugs or something like that, 0:11:39 that’s a personal choice. 0:11:41 You know, look, we have a lot of evolutionary training 0:11:44 where we don’t live in this kind of world of abundance 0:11:48 that we do now, where we don’t have as much of a safety net 0:11:50 if you fail, and where there was less of a war 0:11:52 for taking risks, you go out and get some infection 0:11:54 or something, and there’s no cure for it, 0:11:56 then you die, and now we’re in a world of abundance 0:12:00 and we can afford to think more in terms of expected value, 0:12:04 which means kind of, what is the outcome you get on average 0:12:05 when trying this thing? 0:12:07 ‘Cause there’s uncertainties in the world. 0:12:09 If you play poker, then some percentage of time 0:12:10 you’re gonna win the tournament, 0:12:12 more often than not, you bust out, 0:12:14 but are you making, or is it a plus EV, 0:12:16 positive expected value gamble on average? 0:12:19 Now, if you’re a founder and you’re making these 0:12:21 long, prolonged, 10-year bets, 0:12:22 then maybe it’s a little bit different, right? 0:12:24 I mean, the kind of brilliant thing 0:12:26 that venture capitalists do is they gather together 0:12:29 all these founders who are making long shot bets 0:12:30 with probably positive expected value, 0:12:33 but many of them will fail. 0:12:34 If you make enough of those bets, 0:12:36 then you’re kind of guaranteed 0:12:38 to do very well for yourself, right? 0:12:40 Enough of them will pay off in a, 0:12:43 you have a fund of 15 or 20 or 25 companies every year, 0:12:45 then sooner, and you have your pick of the litter, 0:12:47 you’re picking the best founders, 0:12:49 then that’s a very good business. 0:12:50 For a founder, it requires, I mean, 0:12:53 I think it literally does require more risk. 0:12:55 I mean, if you are any one founder, 0:12:57 your company may fail, 0:12:59 which is partly why, you know, 0:13:01 you get people like Elon Musk, 0:13:03 who like literally, if you read the, 0:13:07 the Isaacson book on him about Elon playing poker, 0:13:09 he would like literally just kind of go in, 0:13:12 go all in every hand until he’d lose 0:13:14 and he’d walk away from the table and do something else. 0:13:16 He’s not 10% group where he’s probably taking 0:13:19 on too much risk, I would think, 0:13:21 but these are often people that have chips on their shoulder 0:13:23 that almost have like an evolutionary 0:13:27 or genetic kind of propensity to take risk. 0:13:29 – Yeah, I wonder if they’re to a certain extent, 0:13:29 I’m not talking about Elon Musk, 0:13:33 but they have their addicts in the sense that 0:13:36 they take risk and the new kind of the new dopamine balance 0:13:41 after taking some risk is to have that rush 0:13:42 you have to take more risk. 0:13:45 I used to, I worked for a hedge fund manager 0:13:48 who at one point was the, I think the 50th 0:13:51 or the 70th wealthiest person 0:13:55 and he kept taking these just outsize crazy risks 0:13:57 until he ended up broke. 0:14:01 And he just has like almost a psychotic approach 0:14:05 or aggressive approach to risk. 0:14:07 I want to bring it down to entrepreneurship 0:14:10 because I’ve been an entrepreneur for most of my life 0:14:12 and it raised a lot of money from VCs. 0:14:14 And where I thought there was a bit of a disconnect 0:14:17 or dislocation between their interests and my interest 0:14:21 is that they would always encourage me as the CEO 0:14:23 or the founder of a company when I was going well 0:14:25 to go bigger, harder, bolder 0:14:29 because they’re looking for billion dollar exits 0:14:33 to pay for the 70 or 80% of their portfolio 0:14:35 that doesn’t even get its money back 0:14:38 and half of them that go to zero. 0:14:39 And they need those big pops. 0:14:43 And I was thought, okay, I don’t need to be a billionaire. 0:14:45 I need to have economic security 0:14:46 and this is where our interests diverge 0:14:48 because I used to advocate for 0:14:51 and usually would ultimately would win 0:14:53 for selling the company. 0:14:55 I sold my first company for 33 million. 0:14:56 Our investors were disappointed. 0:14:59 I sold my last company for 160 million 0:15:02 despite my investors tripling their money in 27 months. 0:15:04 They were disappointed 0:15:06 because I didn’t have a bunch of chips on the table. 0:15:09 I had one big chip on one number. 0:15:12 And so it creates a divergence of risk. 0:15:15 Can you talk a little bit about where, you know 0:15:17 are there other divergences, whether it’s an employee 0:15:19 and you’re, you know 0:15:22 of a company or an entrepreneur or founder and VCs 0:15:26 how do you want to be thinking about an approach to risk 0:15:28 based on where you are in an organization? 0:15:30 – No, Scott, I think that’s right. 0:15:33 And I think kind of VCs get the better side 0:15:37 of that VC founder interaction most of the time. 0:15:39 And it’s probably why they’re picking people 0:15:43 who have huge variants in their outcomes, right? 0:15:44 You’re not going to pick somebody 0:15:48 to run like a chain of three ice cream stores 0:15:49 in Boise, Idaho or something, right? 0:15:50 Where the upside is capped. 0:15:53 You want people that wind up on the extreme tails 0:15:54 because the thing you hear over and over and over again 0:15:56 from everyone in Silicon Valley is like 0:16:00 you can’t miss out on the 1000X X and your money opportunity. 0:16:03 You cannot let Mark Zuckerberg walk through the door. 0:16:05 So the downside of that is you sometimes get a Mark Zuckerberg 0:16:07 and sometimes you get a Sam Bakeman Fried 0:16:09 or Elizabeth Holmes or whatever else. 0:16:12 I mean, even in my own world, you know 0:16:15 I kind of run I guess my own content business 0:16:17 and realizing that it’s actually a much better business 0:16:19 where it’s smaller scale, right? 0:16:21 I keep more of the profit myself. 0:16:22 I don’t have a bunch of employees 0:16:26 whose marginal contribution can be debated, I suppose. 0:16:28 And so yeah, I found that when I’m smaller 0:16:31 I actually am happier and more successful financially 0:16:32 but the obsession with scale 0:16:34 especially in the media business 0:16:36 which is maybe its own special beast 0:16:38 but the obsession with scale makes sense 0:16:40 in most contexts from a VC standpoint 0:16:43 but may not be in the interest of the founder. 0:16:46 – In terms of your own personal life and risk taking 0:16:50 I’ve always bifurcated it and it may be incorrect 0:16:51 but again, just trying to reverse engineer this 0:16:54 into actionable advice for young people. 0:16:58 There was my risk profile before kids and then after kids 0:16:59 and I left investment banking 0:17:02 which on a risk adjusted basis was what I should have stuck 0:17:05 with but I wasn’t enjoying it and I wasn’t very good at it. 0:17:08 And then I moved home with my mom because I’m like 0:17:10 oh, I don’t know what I’m gonna do 0:17:12 and not knowing what you wanna do and quitting 0:17:15 doesn’t pay well so I moved back in with my mom 0:17:17 and I took risks and I applied to graduate school 0:17:20 started businesses, my first business 0:17:23 I didn’t have any money but my girlfriend was making money 0:17:26 so I could take that risk. 0:17:30 Once I had kids and I think this is the correct instinct 0:17:32 I’m like okay, shit just got real. 0:17:36 My, you know, me and my two sons can’t move back in 0:17:39 but my mom or it’s gonna be very uncomfortable 0:17:42 and it absolutely changed my risk profile. 0:17:44 A lot more anxiety, a lot more concern around risk 0:17:46 but I think that was the correct emotion. 0:17:50 Would you describe other seminal moments in your life 0:17:52 that you wanna think about risk before and after 0:17:54 and doesn’t this all add up to when you’re young 0:17:56 is the time to take risks? 0:17:59 – I think so, I mean, I don’t have kids 0:18:01 and so that’s like one more reason to kind of gamble 0:18:04 on your upside and not necessarily worry 0:18:06 about a secure paycheck, I don’t think. 0:18:08 Yeah, I think that heuristic is basically right 0:18:10 that when you’re younger you have more opportunity. 0:18:14 I mean, look, I think people sometimes set the bar too low 0:18:17 as far as life outcomes that they’re satisfied with 0:18:19 because my first job out of college 0:18:21 I had a consulting job, I was something called 0:18:23 a transfer pricing consultant 0:18:25 which is about as boring as it sounds like 0:18:28 and quit that to play online poker basically 0:18:29 where I was making more money 0:18:31 and to work for a internet startup 0:18:33 that wrote about baseball statistics. 0:18:38 So quitting a safe consulting job is a somewhat risky endeavor 0:18:39 but it proved to be a better decision 0:18:43 and I think people need to have a higher reserve price 0:18:44 to use a slightly technical term 0:18:47 for how they’re spending their time. 0:18:49 There’s also studies, I mean, Stephen Leavitt 0:18:51 of Freakonomics did a famous paper 0:18:55 where he would actually have people literally flip coins 0:18:56 to make major life decisions. 0:18:59 So should I move across the country or quit my job 0:19:01 or get divorced or get married 0:19:03 and found that when people flipped a coin 0:19:05 they told them to make a change 0:19:07 they wound up being happier on average. 0:19:09 The importance of quitting. 0:19:10 I don’t know if you had Annie Duke on the show 0:19:13 former poker player who now writes business books 0:19:15 wrote a book called quit. 0:19:18 Getting out of a bad situation while you can 0:19:23 or maybe half a move ahead is an underrated skill I think. 0:19:25 I think people are too willing to muddle through 0:19:27 not have a long enough time horizon 0:19:30 and wind up being mired in an unhappy place. 0:19:32 – I think that’s a great insight 0:19:33 and I just wanted to stop on that. 0:19:36 There’s this mythology from Donald Trump down 0:19:37 and like never give up. 0:19:39 Oh, there’s a time to give up. 0:19:41 I mean, absolutely. 0:19:42 There’s a time to leave. 0:19:44 And I would say that’s where a kitchen cabinet comes in 0:19:46 to advise you that, okay, you’re banging your head 0:19:47 against a wall. 0:19:49 You need to move on to different opportunities. 0:19:51 Several chapters of your book focus 0:19:54 on Sam Bankman Freed and the crypto world. 0:19:56 What do you think people miss about FTX 0:19:59 and Sam Bankman Freed and how it relates to risk? 0:20:03 – So he is certainly on the extreme right tail 0:20:05 of risk-taking where he literally said 0:20:08 in repeated interviews that if he could push a button 0:20:10 and gamble for the future of the universe 0:20:12 and either the universe is destroyed 0:20:15 or 51% of the time it winds up being twice as good 0:20:17 then it’s a positive expected value bet. 0:20:18 So he’d make it. 0:20:21 That’s a pretty insane way to look at life. 0:20:25 And I think people were too unwilling. 0:20:28 I think there was a little bit of a kind of boy genius myth 0:20:30 around Sam. 0:20:31 And there was a little bit of a bystander problem 0:20:34 where it seemed like all these people are vouching for him. 0:20:35 Therefore he must be smart 0:20:39 and therefore people weren’t willing to point out 0:20:41 sometimes crazy and kooky things that he was willing to say. 0:20:44 And it’s a little bit of a cult of personality, 0:20:46 the cult that the village or the river would think it avoids 0:20:48 that actually winds up having with founders 0:20:50 like SPF sometimes. 0:20:53 I think he was also not a very good risk assessor 0:20:55 despite thinking of himself as one. 0:20:59 I talked to a lawyer right as his criminal trial 0:21:01 and Manhattan was taking place. 0:21:04 And the lawyer said he should not take the stand. 0:21:08 He should cut his losses and try to minimize his sentence 0:21:10 at five to 10 years. 0:21:13 If he takes a stand, he’s for sure gonna hurt yourself, 0:21:17 which he did and he wound up getting like 20 years instead. 0:21:20 When I talked to Sam and Palo Alto six months before the trial, 0:21:24 I said, what if you were offered a two year plea deal, 0:21:27 two years and then some restrictions 0:21:28 on what you can do afterwards. 0:21:30 So kind of more than a slap on the wrist, 0:21:31 but not that much more. 0:21:33 And he said, I’d have to think about it, right? 0:21:35 So I mean, he was 10 X off 0:21:36 of what the realistic outcome was gonna be. 0:21:38 He got 20 years of course. 0:21:41 And I think, I think, look, as a poker player, 0:21:44 I’ve seen lots of people in the SPF typology. 0:21:49 So kind of smart, nerdy, maybe a little bit on the spectrum, 0:21:53 you know, neurotic, Adderall, whatever quick on his feet. 0:21:58 And not all of them are as smart as they’re cracked up to be. 0:22:01 So I think people needed to have more skepticism of him 0:22:04 both kind of before, during and after the bankruptcy. 0:22:06 – I would argue that’s a perfect example 0:22:10 of just ridiculously stupid risk-taking. 0:22:13 I can’t imagine how frustrated his lawyers must have been. 0:22:16 Like, okay, you are doing everything wrong here. 0:22:19 I’m curious, have you tried to relate some of your thoughts 0:22:21 and analysis around risk-taking 0:22:24 to people’s relationships or personal life? 0:22:25 You said you don’t have kids. 0:22:26 I don’t know if you’re in a partnership, 0:22:29 but have you thought about approach to risk 0:22:33 as it relates to relationships and outcomes? 0:22:36 – Yeah, I’ve been a long-term relationship, no kids. 0:22:37 I guess I’d say, frankly, not as much. 0:22:40 I mean, I’m trying to keep, it’s already a long book. 0:22:41 It’s like 500 pages. 0:22:43 So I’m trying to keep the scope of it somewhat narrow. 0:22:48 I think some of it does apply that people, you know, 0:22:52 probably are settle a little bit too easily sometimes. 0:22:55 I think the importance of what I call, 0:22:57 or not what I call the importance of optionality, 0:22:59 I think is really important in both business 0:23:01 and interpersonal affairs, 0:23:03 where are you walking down a hallway 0:23:06 where there are a lot of doors open, right? 0:23:08 It’s kind of a stupid analogy, 0:23:11 but, you know, I’ve lived in New York for 15 years now, 0:23:13 so my partner and I, we have a, you know, 0:23:14 pretty good group of friends. 0:23:16 And so let’s say you don’t have plans 0:23:19 on a Thursday night, well, there’s a whatever, 0:23:22 one in three chance that someone will text you and say, 0:23:24 “Hey, I just have made a reservation 0:23:25 “on this new dinner place, 0:23:28 “or you want to go to the Yankees game.” 0:23:30 Just these kind of cool opportunistic things. 0:23:32 Let’s go to an art gallery that you don’t have 0:23:35 if you haven’t facilitated different options in your life. 0:23:38 – We’ll use the word optionality. 0:23:40 You’re an analytics guy. 0:23:42 Do you think it makes sense to get married? 0:23:44 We’ll be right back. 0:23:48 Support for the show comes from NetSuite. 0:23:50 No matter the size of the business, 0:23:52 you’ll need to support it if you want to be successful. 0:23:54 But the challenge is actually finding a trusted system 0:23:56 to help your specific needs 0:23:58 because your business is unique. 0:24:00 Thankfully, NetSuite by Oracle is here to provide you 0:24:02 with products and services 0:24:04 for your specific business needs. 0:24:06 NetSuite is a top-rated cloud financial system 0:24:09 that brings accounting, financial management inventory, 0:24:12 and HR into one platform and one source of truth. 0:24:14 You can reduce IT costs 0:24:15 because NetSuite lives in the cloud 0:24:19 with no hardware required accessed from anywhere. 0:24:21 You can also cut the cost of maintaining multiple systems 0:24:22 and you can prove efficiency 0:24:24 by bringing all your major business processes 0:24:28 into one platform slashing manual tasks 0:24:31 and errors over 37,000 companies 0:24:33 have already made the move to NetSuite. 0:24:35 So do the math and see how you can profit 0:24:37 with NetSuite today. 0:24:39 By popular demand, NetSuite has extended 0:24:40 its one-of-a-kind flexible financing program 0:24:42 for a few more weeks. 0:24:47 Head to netsuite.com/prof, netsuite.com/prof, 0:24:49 netsuite.com/prof. 0:24:53 Support for PropG comes from Vanta. 0:24:54 Whether you’re starting or scaling 0:24:56 your business company’s security program, 0:24:58 demonstrating top-notch security practices 0:25:01 and establishing trust is more important than ever. 0:25:06 Vanta automates compliance for SOC2, ISO 27001, 0:25:07 and more, saving you time and money 0:25:09 while helping you build customer trust. 0:25:11 Plus, you can streamline security reviews 0:25:12 by automating questionnaires 0:25:14 and demonstrating your security posture 0:25:15 with a customer-facing trust center 0:25:18 all powered by Vanta AI. 0:25:20 Over 7,000 global companies 0:25:22 like Atlassian, FlowHealth, and Quora 0:25:25 use Vanta to manage risk and prove security in real-time. 0:25:30 Get $1,000 off Vanta when you go to vanta.com/profg. 0:25:34 That’s vanta.com/profg for $1,000 off. 0:25:38 – I’m Anusa Brahmanyan from Vox Media. 0:25:39 While I see them all around the city, 0:25:42 I’ve never ridden in an autonomous vehicle myself. 0:25:44 I do have some questions about the tech. 0:25:45 You may as well. 0:25:48 – Hello, from Waymo. 0:25:50 This experience may feel futuristic. 0:25:51 – This is so cool. 0:25:54 – Vox and Waymo teamed up 0:25:56 for an in-depth study about AV perception. 0:25:57 And what they found was that, 0:25:59 as people learned more about Waymo, 0:26:01 their interest in choosing one 0:26:04 over a human-driven vehicle almost doubled. 0:26:05 – Person approaching. 0:26:09 – Waymo can see 360 degrees and up to 300 meters away, 0:26:11 which helps it obey traffic laws 0:26:13 and get you where you’re going safely. 0:26:16 Swiss Re found that, compared to human drivers, 0:26:19 Waymo reported 100% fewer injury claims 0:26:22 and 76% fewer property damage claims. 0:26:23 And speaking of safety, 0:26:27 folks identifying as LGBTQIA and non-binary 0:26:29 showed the highest interest in AVs 0:26:31 and women showed the greatest increase in interest 0:26:32 after learning more. 0:26:36 – Arriving shortly at your destination. 0:26:40 – So that actually felt totally normal. 0:26:41 AVs are here and the more you know, 0:26:44 the more exciting this tech becomes. 0:26:46 You can learn more about Waymo, 0:26:48 the world’s most experienced driver 0:26:49 by heading to Waymo.com. 0:26:54 – We’ll use the word optionality. 0:26:55 You’re an analytics guy. 0:26:58 Do you think it makes sense to get married? 0:27:01 – Probably for tax purposes and stuff like that. 0:27:02 I mean, there’s still, 0:27:04 probably my partner and I should think about it 0:27:05 at some point. 0:27:09 Yeah, I think there are still benefits 0:27:12 from being married in terms of just the way 0:27:13 the tax code tweets it and things like that, 0:27:16 which, you know, was like a very, very clinical answer. 0:27:19 You know, I do think sometimes commitment is also, 0:27:20 can also be a good thing. 0:27:23 I mean, I think there can be paradoxes of choice 0:27:25 where you have too many options. 0:27:28 That’s actually kind of one thing I worry about out there 0:27:29 in the world a little bit is that like, 0:27:30 if you’re somebody who’s really good 0:27:32 at taking advantage of optionality, 0:27:35 then the world’s kind of your oyster now, right? 0:27:38 Now you can work from home and have five different jobs, 0:27:39 which I kind of do now. 0:27:41 And it’s like, but it’s a lot to balance. 0:27:43 And if you’re under duress, right? 0:27:46 If you do have kids or an older relative 0:27:48 that you’re taking care of, 0:27:52 if you’re injured somehow or incapacitated somehow, 0:27:54 then it becomes a lot harder potentially. 0:27:57 So I wonder if it leads to like a little bit more of a, 0:27:59 even though like Scott, you might take advantage of it 0:28:01 or I might, I wonder if it leads to a little bit more 0:28:04 of like kind of a winner take all world. 0:28:06 – I think you see that on online dating. 0:28:09 It’s great to be, I mean, 0:28:11 there’s income inequality and I’m crazy in online dating. 0:28:15 My understanding is the top 10% of most attractive males, 0:28:18 if you will, to get 80% of the opportunities. 0:28:20 – Oh yeah, that wouldn’t surprise me one bit. 0:28:22 And then in some sense, I mean, look, 0:28:26 the capitalist internet driven economy 0:28:28 is extremely effective at delivering 0:28:30 whatever the efficient outcome is. 0:28:33 And mostly speaking, I am pro market, 0:28:34 but like we should think about situations 0:28:36 where the efficient outcome, 0:28:39 the market efficient outcome is like not serving 0:28:40 the greater good necessarily. 0:28:42 And that might eventually kind 0:28:45 of market correct itself somehow. 0:28:47 I’m not quite sure how I’ve been in the same relationship 0:28:49 for a long time now. 0:28:52 But yeah, that’s a great microcosm of it, I agree. 0:28:55 – So let’s shift to politics. 0:28:57 So Nate, who’s gonna win the election? 0:28:59 How’s that? 0:29:00 Let’s kick off there. 0:29:01 Who do you think’s gonna win? 0:29:04 – I can give you the honest dodge, 0:29:06 which is our model as of this morning we’re taping this. 0:29:08 It’s about literally about 50/50. 0:29:12 Joe Biden had been a pretty heavy underdog to Trump 0:29:14 and his position, in fact, was worsening in our model. 0:29:16 He was at about 25%. 0:29:17 I think it might have actually been high. 0:29:19 Given that he, his fundraising had dried up, 0:29:21 that he wasn’t really capable 0:29:22 of running a full-fledged campaign. 0:29:25 With Trump Harris, it’s a lot more even. 0:29:26 It’s important for Democrats to remember 0:29:30 that Democrats have a disadvantage in the electoral college. 0:29:32 So she is a favorite to win the popular vote. 0:29:34 She is ahead for right now 0:29:36 in most polls of the popular vote. 0:29:37 But the electoral college, Pennsylvania, 0:29:40 Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, et cetera, 0:29:42 is liable to be very close. 0:29:45 So yeah, I wouldn’t wanna wage her a lot of money 0:29:48 on this currently, but she has had momentum. 0:29:51 I mean, it’s been a pretty good rollout to her campaign. 0:29:55 And by the way, I mean, this was an example 0:29:58 of smart risk-taking from Democrats, right? 0:30:01 Is pushing Biden aside? 0:30:02 And they did push him aside. 0:30:04 I don’t buy this rhetoric at like Biden, 0:30:06 but evidently decided to resign. 0:30:09 I mean, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer were, 0:30:09 yeah, it was kicked out. 0:30:11 They were pulling every lever they could. 0:30:14 And that’s bold from a party 0:30:17 that’s often kind of triangulating and risk averse. 0:30:21 And so credit to them for giving themselves a 50/50 coin flip 0:30:24 instead of personally, I think, very likely lost with Biden. 0:30:26 Now they have a real chance. 0:30:28 – Speaking of sort of triangulating 0:30:30 and taking the less risky choice, 0:30:32 I was really hoping and thought it would have been 0:30:35 a great move to choose Governor Shapiro as the VP. 0:30:37 And they’ve picked Governor Tim Waltz. 0:30:40 So by the way, I think Briggs Greg sort of like dad energy. 0:30:41 And my guess is they’re banking 0:30:45 that he has regional appeal across the border states. 0:30:47 What are your thoughts on the VP pick? 0:30:49 And do you think it, I mean, at the end of the day, 0:30:54 my guess is that we always tend to overestimate 0:30:55 the impact it’s gonna have. 0:30:57 But what do you think of the Waltz pick relative 0:31:01 to kind of risk-taking and moving her chances up or down? 0:31:05 – No, I’m 100% aligned with that take of your Scott. 0:31:06 I think Josh Shapiro is a star talent 0:31:10 and he’s demonstrated empirically his popularity 0:31:12 in the most important swing state, Pennsylvania. 0:31:13 And Pennsylvania, by the way, 0:31:15 it’s a swing state for a reason, which it has, 0:31:18 it has urban areas, it has some diversity, 0:31:21 it has rural areas, it has suburbs around Philly 0:31:23 and Pittsburgh, obviously. 0:31:25 So he has like an actual demonstrated 0:31:27 empirical track record. 0:31:28 And you know, look, I think Tim Waltz 0:31:31 is a pretty good pick in a vacuum. 0:31:33 But I did think it was a little bit risk averse. 0:31:37 If she was a 70/30 favorite or an 80/20 favorite, 0:31:39 that’s what I thought it might have been right choice. 0:31:41 That’s when it’s like a do no harm choice. 0:31:43 I do think because she’s been moving up, 0:31:47 I mean, I think she maybe overrates the importance 0:31:50 of short-term momentum as opposed to in the long term, 0:31:52 it’s really gonna be nice to have someone 0:31:57 who can lock up Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes. 0:32:00 And someone who kind of really gets moderate, 0:32:02 it’s excited because actually the Democratic base 0:32:04 isn’t as large as it once was. 0:32:05 And if you look at the voter registration numbers, 0:32:08 and it’s more even now than it used to be. 0:32:11 And a tie goes to Republicans in Electoral College. 0:32:14 So I don’t think it’s a terrible choice. 0:32:16 I think I give like a B minus C plus. 0:32:18 But I think there was like a slightly riskier 0:32:21 but higher expected value option in Shapiro 0:32:23 that she declined. 0:32:26 – So the Trump campaign calls you, 0:32:27 and then the Harris campaign calls you 0:32:29 and asks for your advice on the two or three things 0:32:32 that you would do in terms of messaging or tactics 0:32:35 to improve their likelihood of a good outcomes. 0:32:37 First do Trump, they call you Nate, 0:32:39 what are your thoughts on what we should be doing 0:32:41 more or less of? 0:32:46 – I’d say lay off the anything involving 0:32:48 race, gender, sexuality. 0:32:51 I think that’s the Trump campaign at its worst 0:32:53 and the temptation to do that with, you know, 0:32:56 black Indian American women as the other nominee, 0:32:57 it must be tempting, you know, 0:32:59 I think Trump has continued to pivot to the center 0:33:03 on abortion to some degree, of course, you know, 0:33:05 his party was happy about Roe v. Wade being overturned, 0:33:07 but he’s tried to downplay that. 0:33:09 And I think in general, moderation is smart. 0:33:12 And I think kind of, you know, focusing, 0:33:14 I think the two big liabilities for Democrats, 0:33:17 maybe three actually, immigration is one. 0:33:18 I still think the economy is potentially 0:33:23 a big liability for Harris and Democrats. 0:33:26 It’s good by some measures, not as good by other measures. 0:33:29 We are, of course, are facing a lot of volatility recently 0:33:31 in the stock market who knows will be up and down 0:33:34 on the day that people are listening to this 0:33:38 and focusing a little bit too on tying Harris to Biden 0:33:40 because Trump was beating Biden by four points 0:33:41 or something like that in national polls 0:33:44 by the time that Biden quit the race, 0:33:46 that she’s been the vice president, 0:33:49 that you don’t get like a race board 0:33:51 once you’ve been the vice president for four years 0:33:53 that you kind of own that track record, 0:33:56 maybe even owns the fact that like Biden’s health 0:33:58 and fitness are things that the White House 0:34:00 has not been entirely straightforward about. 0:34:02 So those seem like it’s pretty basic stuff, 0:34:05 but you know, tax the center, avoid creepy race stuff 0:34:09 and focus on the problem she inherits from Joe Biden. 0:34:10 – Now do Harris. 0:34:12 – Go back in time and pick Shapiro, 0:34:14 but I guess it’s too late for that now. 0:34:17 Like I think they have otherwise run a pretty good campaign. 0:34:21 They have kind of unapologetically triangulated 0:34:23 to the center a little bit more. 0:34:26 They have tried out some new arguments, 0:34:29 this argument about calling Republicans weird, for example. 0:34:32 I’m not sure it’s fantastic and objectively speaking, 0:34:34 kind of most people who are into politics 0:34:36 are pretty weird by the Democrat or Republican, 0:34:39 but it’s a new look and I think she appreciates 0:34:41 or her campaign team appreciates 0:34:44 how much young voters in particular 0:34:45 were tired of the same playbook 0:34:47 for three elections in a row, right? 0:34:50 In 2016, younger voters wanted Bernie, 0:34:51 but it was, oh, you have to hold your nose 0:34:52 and vote for Hillary. 0:34:54 In 2020, they want to Bernie again. 0:34:55 Oh, it’s a pandemic. 0:34:57 You have to hold your nose and vote for Donald Trump, right? 0:35:00 In 2024, no primary process at all. 0:35:04 And, you know, and Democrats were asking way too much 0:35:06 of voters, I think to like, to ignore the fact 0:35:10 that Biden had clearly lost a step or two or three or four, 0:35:12 and it just wasn’t working at all. 0:35:15 And he was losing support among core demographic groups, 0:35:17 like young voters, especially, you know, 0:35:19 younger voters, black voters, Hispanic voters, 0:35:21 Asian-American voters of color. 0:35:24 So I think she’s been pretty smart so far. 0:35:27 Apart from the VP pick, I give her, you know, 0:35:30 a good grade for the first two or three weeks of the campaign. 0:35:31 – So I agree. 0:35:33 I thought Shapiro was a shillin’. 0:35:36 I just looked at all of these boxes he checked, 0:35:39 including, you know, being this incredibly popular governor 0:35:41 that would have delivered whatever it is, 0:35:44 the 19 delegates in a swing state. 0:35:46 Have you done any, my guess is they looked, 0:35:50 they’re hoping that Waltz has that type of appeal 0:35:52 across the region that he helps, 0:35:56 he helps their case in, in Wisconsin and Michigan. 0:35:58 Have you seen any analysis around 0:36:00 whether his popularity in Minnesota, 0:36:02 his cross-border and his regional? 0:36:03 – I tend to doubt it. 0:36:06 I mean, remember, like Wisconsin and Minnesota 0:36:09 are big rivals in football and hockey and things like that. 0:36:14 And even the home state VP effects are fairly small. 0:36:17 I mean, look, I want to read more reporting 0:36:19 on why Shapiro wasn’t chosen. 0:36:22 If they did a bad job of managing the internal process, 0:36:25 then it is like, I think a little bit more worrisome 0:36:26 for Harris, ’cause it certainly seemed 0:36:28 like that was the direction she was leaning. 0:36:31 She scheduled a rally in Pennsylvania 0:36:32 at one point on betting markets. 0:36:35 Shapiro was up to like an 80 or 90% favorite. 0:36:37 So, you know, if they got cold feet, 0:36:40 then I want to, I want to learn more about that. 0:36:41 ‘Cause if you do get cold feet, 0:36:44 I mean, there might have been like better ways 0:36:45 of framing that decision. 0:36:48 I mean, maybe say that Shapiro has some ailing family member 0:36:51 he has to attend to or wants to focus on 2028 0:36:52 or something like that. 0:36:55 But it was pretty strange to like tease 0:36:58 at this kind of obvious-seeming bolder choice 0:37:01 and then kind of losing at the altar. 0:37:03 I think maybe that is a little bit worrisome 0:37:05 for how they managed that, but we don’t know. 0:37:08 I mean, there could have been like a vetting issue. 0:37:11 They also moved up in the polls 0:37:12 with the course of making the pick. 0:37:14 So, they’re a little bit ahead of Trump, 0:37:15 so a little bit behind that might’ve made them 0:37:17 more risk-avers and that’s a bit more rational. 0:37:20 But yeah, it was, you know, 0:37:23 it’s somewhere between it’s fine 0:37:24 and maybe a more major mistake 0:37:25 depending on the reasons behind it. 0:37:27 And, you know, given the timing of the show, 0:37:30 I haven’t had reasons to read much reporting yet 0:37:32 about exactly why she made this move. 0:37:35 We’ll be right back. 0:37:39 Support for Prop G comes from Babel. 0:37:40 If you’re traveling the world, 0:37:42 it helps if you can feel confident 0:37:43 about where you’re going. 0:37:45 Of course, you’ll want to research the food and culture, 0:37:47 but studying the language is one of the best ways 0:37:49 to get ready for a big trip. 0:37:50 And, 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lot of hats 0:39:26 and might not have the time or resources 0:39:28 they need to find the right person. 0:39:31 Well, on LinkedIn, 86% of small businesses 0:39:34 get a qualified candidate within 24 hours. 0:39:37 Hire professionals like a professional on LinkedIn. 0:39:41 Post your job for free at linkedin.com/prof. 0:39:44 That’s linkedin.com/prof to post your job for free. 0:39:45 Terms and conditions apply. 0:39:51 – Fox Creative. 0:39:54 – This is advertiser content from Zell. 0:39:59 – So I’m on this job listing site 0:40:01 and I get a message from a recruiter 0:40:02 for a small shipping company. 0:40:06 The recruiter said all I needed to do was send $500 0:40:10 to cover mandatory software training and job was mine. 0:40:13 – Scams are happening like this more and more 0:40:16 because of the change in technology. 0:40:18 The sky’s the limit on scams. 0:40:20 – So says Deborah Baxley, 0:40:24 a mobile payments and FinTech consultant of over 20 years. 0:40:27 – Never be pushed into a sense of urgency. 0:40:30 Always sit back, think twice. 0:40:32 If something seems too good to be true 0:40:35 or a little bit weird, think about it. 0:40:37 – But there are steps you could take 0:40:38 to help protect yourself. 0:40:41 – You should never give out any, what we call PII 0:40:44 in the industry, personal identifying information, 0:40:46 which includes everything from your mailing address, 0:40:48 your social security number, 0:40:50 any kind of banking information. 0:40:51 – Encountering a crime like this 0:40:56 can be a little disorienting, stranger than fiction even, 0:41:00 almost like you’re in a TV show. 0:41:04 – Come in Safe Squad, we got a 10-3. 0:41:06 – That’s why Safe Squad was made, 0:41:08 the hottest new fictional crime drama 0:41:11 all about how to protect yourself from financial crimes. 0:41:13 – Copy that dispatch, we’re on it. 0:41:19 Remember, never send money online 0:41:22 to people you don’t already know and trust. 0:41:24 – Learn how you can spot the signs of a scam 0:41:26 so you don’t have to call the Safe Squad 0:41:31 by visiting www.box.com/safesquadHQ. 0:41:34 (upbeat music) 0:41:37 – So now you’re one of those guys 0:41:39 who I imagine are listeners, 0:41:41 a lot of young people listen to the pod 0:41:43 who look at your career and think, 0:41:46 “Wow, you shaped a really cool career for yourself.” 0:41:48 Give us a little bit of the origin story 0:41:51 about how you got to where you are. 0:41:53 What do you think the most positive influences 0:41:55 and decisions you made and maybe some of the mistakes 0:41:57 you made because you’ve carved out 0:42:00 a really interesting seat for yourself. 0:42:01 – I appreciate that, Scott. 0:42:03 I mean, I think, look, I think I also got lucky 0:42:05 in a lot of different ways where 0:42:09 I quit my consulting job in 2004 to play poker, 0:42:11 mostly internet poker. 0:42:13 – Were you one of these guys in Costa Rica 0:42:15 that was just online all day long 0:42:16 trying to take advantage of idiots like me 0:42:19 that occasionally play online poker? 0:42:21 – I was living in Chicago, not Costa Rica. 0:42:22 I should probably have played more, right? 0:42:24 I probably should have played like around the clock 0:42:27 ’cause it was a bubble more than a boom. 0:42:28 There were so many new players 0:42:30 that like you were just printing money. 0:42:32 Probably had an expected value of, I don’t know, 0:42:34 150 or 200 bucks an hour, 0:42:35 which is very hard to achieve 0:42:39 when you’re like in your 20s or something. 0:42:40 So I probably should have played even more hours 0:42:42 and grinded even more out. 0:42:44 But what happened instead is that in 2006, 0:42:47 the US Congress passed a law 0:42:49 that basically banned payment processing 0:42:50 to poker sites online. 0:42:53 So basically caused the games to get much worse. 0:42:56 Now you had to have a shady workaround 0:42:57 to deposit your money. 0:43:01 And so some of the weaker players left the game and so, 0:43:05 but that actually sparked my interest in politics. 0:43:08 And it’s 2008, I’m living in Chicago. 0:43:10 There’s a youngish guy named Barack Obama 0:43:12 who went to, not went to, 0:43:14 taught at my university, University of Chicago, 0:43:15 who’s running for president. 0:43:18 Meanwhile, this is kind of five years after Moneyball 0:43:20 and it’s a time for the moneyballization of everything. 0:43:23 So, you know, had time for, with my poker career, 0:43:25 having dried up, I had time for something else 0:43:28 and started 538. 0:43:31 And so there was a lot of luck and a lot of serendipity. 0:43:33 But, you know, but you look, 0:43:34 doing something you’re passionate about 0:43:36 and where your incentives are aligned, 0:43:40 I become like, like literally like free access productive. 0:43:43 I think, you know, I mean, like, I get a lot done 0:43:45 over the course of a day or course of a week. 0:43:46 And like, it’s not like I’m, you know, 0:43:48 I’m not necessarily working 24/7. 0:43:52 I leave time for socializing and things like that. 0:43:53 But kind of owning your own work project. 0:43:55 And by the way, I mean, the biggest mistake I think I made 0:43:58 was going and having 538 be attached 0:44:02 to like a giant corporation called the Walt Disney Company 0:44:03 for 10 years. 0:44:07 They were offering a guaranteed paycheck, 0:44:08 but no actual business plan, 0:44:12 no actual incentive compensation or anything like that. 0:44:13 And I did work really hard for them 0:44:17 for probably the first eight and a half out of those 10 years. 0:44:18 But now that I’m back on my own 0:44:21 and have a newsletter subscription business 0:44:25 and have my own podcast and do some consulting on the side, 0:44:28 you know, it turns out that actually I’m doing 0:44:30 a lot better financially than they were paying me 0:44:33 because the incentives are there and because like, you know, 0:44:35 I kind of own my own image and work product. 0:44:37 And it’s just way more, 0:44:38 it’s way more of my speed 0:44:40 to be a little bit more entrepreneurial. 0:44:43 I’m not quite sure what I was expecting to get 0:44:45 out of the big kind of corporate experience. 0:44:48 – And just as we wrap up here, 0:44:50 given what you know about, you know, 0:44:53 you write about politics, you write about technology, 0:44:55 your advice to someone just coming out of school 0:44:57 or a younger person, where do you think, 0:44:59 when you look at different industries, 0:45:01 do you think that someone who’s risk aggressive 0:45:04 in this industry could do very well 0:45:06 or sort of advice to your 25 year old self, 0:45:09 what would those industries or those jobs be? 0:45:11 – I think being differentiated, 0:45:14 maybe that’s a slightly too generic piece of advice, 0:45:17 but, you know, finding things that you’re passionate about 0:45:20 and things that you do like uniquely well, right? 0:45:22 You know, if you can be the best person ever writing 0:45:25 about, you know, women’s curling or something like that, 0:45:27 then it probably won’t be a career for you, 0:45:29 but you at least positively differentiate yourself. 0:45:31 One of the smartest things I did for the book, by the way, 0:45:34 is just kind of talking to smart people a lot. 0:45:36 So, you know, having good conversations, 0:45:37 but I think we’re in a world now 0:45:40 where particularly with the rise of AI, 0:45:43 and I’m kind of a, you know, I’m not like a AI doomer. 0:45:45 I’m also not an AI is going to conquer everything person. 0:45:48 I’m kind of uncertain about it, 0:45:50 but I think that will increase the premium 0:45:52 on not being average, 0:45:55 ’cause the AI will give you like a very good 0:45:57 above average version of average, if that makes sense, right? 0:46:00 It can kind of synthesize all the text on the internet 0:46:02 and put it together in a way that’s a little bit dry 0:46:05 and boring, but, you know, plausibly pretty good. 0:46:08 And so, do you kind of provide like a unique vector, 0:46:11 I guess, in the world that can’t be replicated anywhere else? 0:46:13 I think that’s a valuable skill. 0:46:14 – Yeah, I like what you said there. 0:46:18 I’ve always found that the specific crowds of the general 0:46:20 and commit to owning something, 0:46:22 like you said, women’s curling, commit to being, 0:46:23 you might think that’s too niche, 0:46:25 but if you’re the best in the world at covering it, 0:46:27 then eventually you’ll start covering ice skating 0:46:29 or something or people will want to have your, 0:46:32 know your take on different things. 0:46:34 Nate Silver is the founder of 538 0:46:36 and the author of the New York Times bestselling book, 0:46:38 The Signal and the Noise. 0:46:41 He also writes the sub-stack, Silver Bulletin. 0:46:42 His latest book, On the Edge, 0:46:45 The Art of Risking Everything, is out now. 0:46:49 He joins us from his home in Chelsea, adjacent. 0:46:51 Nate, I really enjoyed this conversation 0:46:53 and congrats on your success. 0:46:54 – Thanks so much, Scott. 0:46:55 It was great. 0:46:55 Talk to you soon. 0:46:58 (upbeat music) 0:47:04 – This episode was produced by Caroline Shagren. 0:47:06 Jennifer Sanchez is our associate producer 0:47:08 and Drew Burroughs is our technical director. 0:47:09 Thank you for listening to The Property Pod 0:47:11 from the Vox Media Podcast Network. 0:47:13 We will catch you on Saturday 0:47:15 for No Mercy, No Malice as read by George Hahn. 0:47:18 And please follow our Property Markets Pod 0:47:20 wherever you get your pods for new episodes 0:47:22 every Monday and Thursday. 0:47:25 – Thanks to Huntress for their support. 0:47:27 Keeping your data safe is important. 0:47:29 However, if you’re a small business owner, 0:47:31 then protecting the information of yourself, 0:47:34 your company and your workers is vital. 0:47:36 In comes Huntress. 0:47:39 Huntress is where fully managed cybersecurity 0:47:41 meets human expertise. 0:47:44 They offer a revolutionary approach to manage security. 0:47:46 That isn’t all about tech. 0:47:49 It’s about real people providing real defense. 0:47:51 When threats arise or issues occur, 0:47:53 their team of seasoned cyber experts 0:47:58 is ready 24 hours a day, 365 days a year for support. 0:48:02 Visit huntress.com/vox to start a free trial 0:48:03 or learn more. 0:48:06 (upbeat music)
Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight and Substack writer of “Silver Bulletin,” joins Scott to discuss his latest book, “ON THE EDGE: The Art of Risking Everything.” We hear about the role of risk in shaping modern life, his background in election forecasting, and his thoughts on Kamala Harris’s VP pick. Follow Nate, @NateSilver538.
0:00:02 (upbeat music) 0:00:05 Support for this special series comes from Mint Mobile. 0:00:06 You already know Scott Galloway 0:00:09 is an authority in business, career, and wealth management. 0:00:12 I mean, you’re listening to this show, aren’t you? 0:00:15 ProfG has the resume, the accolades, and the audience. 0:00:19 But sometimes, good advice comes from surprising places. 0:00:21 Like Mint Mobile, the cell phone provider 0:00:24 that can help you stop wasting buckets of money every month. 0:00:28 Head to mintmobile.com/profg to learn more 0:00:29 and stick around for advice 0:00:32 from another unexpected expert later on in the show. 0:00:35 (upbeat music) 0:00:36 – Welcome to the second episode 0:00:38 of the ProfG Pod special series 0:00:41 featuring some of our favorite Office Hours moments. 0:00:42 In last week’s episode, 0:00:44 we featured Office Hours’ best of business 0:00:46 and answered your questions surrounding the brand era, 0:00:49 big tech companies, and their ethical responsibility. 0:00:51 And when a founder CEO should step down. 0:00:54 – Advertising is a weird industry. 0:00:56 It’s always like one and a half percent of GDP. 0:00:58 It doesn’t go below that, it doesn’t go above it. 0:01:00 So this is not a growth industry, 0:01:01 but you have some companies 0:01:04 that are going 20 and 25% a year, 0:01:06 which means they are sucking the oxygen out of the room 0:01:08 for the other folks. 0:01:11 Corporate America, these are platforms for making profits. 0:01:12 And at the end of the day, 0:01:14 they are going to do whatever increases their profits, 0:01:17 full stop, that’s just what they do. 0:01:20 You should assume if you’re the CEO, you are not Bill Gates. 0:01:23 You should assume you are not Steve Jobs. 0:01:25 – Today, you’ll hear best of career advice, 0:01:27 including how to ask for a promotion at work, 0:01:29 when and if you should ditch your full-time job 0:01:33 for your side hustle and when to quit your job entirely. 0:01:36 So with that, first question. 0:01:37 – Hi, Pravji. 0:01:39 Now let me introduce myself. 0:01:43 My name is Kareem and I am from Toronto, Canada. 0:01:46 I work in a marketing team at a pharmaceutical company 0:01:49 and I’ve been enjoying what I do. 0:01:52 I’ve had a very exciting journey 0:01:55 to get to where I am right now. 0:01:59 And I’ve been in my current role for about a year 0:02:03 and I’ve had something in my mind for the past few months, 0:02:05 which brings me to a big question. 0:02:07 Is it the right time for me to ask 0:02:11 or maybe even bring up the topic 0:02:14 of possibly getting a raise or a promotion? 0:02:17 I’ve been thinking about this for a long time 0:02:20 and I can’t help but wonder whether it should be me 0:02:23 to bring it up or should I just hang in tight 0:02:28 until they share with me the good news. 0:02:30 Thank you so much for all what you do 0:02:34 and I’m looking forward to hearing your thoughts. 0:02:36 – Kareem from Toronto, thanks for the question 0:02:38 and congrats on living in such a wonderful city. 0:02:42 So it’s unusual and not a great indicator 0:02:44 or a great reflection on your company 0:02:48 that you don’t know when they announce promotions 0:02:49 and raises ’cause most firms, 0:02:51 once they get beyond a certain size, 0:02:55 say at the end of the year or in June of every year, 0:02:58 we sit people down and we talk about compensation, 0:03:02 which is usually bonuses, salary increases or promotions 0:03:04 and or none of the above, right? 0:03:06 And do a review all at the same time. 0:03:10 This is a big part of what I’ve done at all my companies. 0:03:12 I’m when someone does something especially good 0:03:15 or not so great, I do an email to the file 0:03:17 about this person at the end of the year, 0:03:19 I try to be very thoughtful about their compensation, 0:03:21 their role, their title, all that good stuff. 0:03:24 And if anybody comes to me off cycle 0:03:26 and asks for a raise or a promotion, 0:03:27 I say we don’t do that. 0:03:30 There’s only one time during the year we consider this 0:03:33 and that is in December. 0:03:36 And the fact that you don’t know when that time is 0:03:37 is sort of strange. 0:03:40 Now, what I would suggest is the following, 0:03:42 is that you find out when and where you hear 0:03:45 about compensation and salary increases 0:03:48 and that you establish a relationship with a mentor 0:03:49 or your boss such that it’s informal enough 0:03:52 such you could say, you know, which should my, 0:03:53 you can ask very straightforward, 0:03:56 which my expectations be around a bonus 0:03:58 or how are bonuses evaluated? 0:04:00 What about promotions? 0:04:02 You know, you should just have more insight. 0:04:05 And I think it’s okay to take your boss 0:04:08 or a mentor to launch and say, I would like to be promoted 0:04:11 and I’d love your advice on what I need to do 0:04:13 to increase the likelihood I get promoted. 0:04:15 I think that people like ambitious people. 0:04:18 – Yeah, it depends if you can kind of read the tea leaves 0:04:19 is the company growing quickly. 0:04:20 Are you well like there? 0:04:22 Are you generating revenue? 0:04:25 A manager’s job is to manage expectations 0:04:27 and then ideally if they can, 0:04:29 I don’t want to say exceed those expectations. 0:04:32 I always worked for growth firms. 0:04:33 A few of those firms are done really well. 0:04:35 So we were in a position to kind of surprise 0:04:36 into live people. 0:04:38 Sometimes in a big company, it’s not growing that fast. 0:04:41 So it just isn’t, if the company’s only growing 2% a year, 0:04:44 it’s hard for them to give out 4% raises even 0:04:45 because that means they’re going to have to reduce 0:04:47 their profits or if their profits themselves 0:04:50 aren’t growing faster than 4% a year. 0:04:52 Well, you don’t want to do a set up a when lose situation 0:04:53 where they’re looking for excuses 0:04:56 not to give you a raise or a salary. 0:05:00 So it’s be a good citizen. 0:05:02 Don’t bring it up more than once a year. 0:05:04 Be grateful, don’t be bummed out. 0:05:06 And if you really think they’re screwing you over, 0:05:08 start looking for another job. 0:05:10 But I find as someone who manages a lot of people’s 0:05:13 expectations when they’re constantly pushing me 0:05:15 for raises and promotions, 0:05:18 I find that I naturally want to not do it. 0:05:20 That I have a gag reflex on it 0:05:22 and there’s certain people in my organization 0:05:23 that just work really hard 0:05:24 and I want to surprise and delight them. 0:05:26 Some people would argue it’s the squeaky wheel 0:05:28 that gets the grease. 0:05:30 That has not been my experience. 0:05:32 But boss, you need a mentor here 0:05:34 or a relationship with your boss 0:05:35 so she can start having these conversations 0:05:39 and find out when is the compensation window 0:05:42 and get advice on what you should be doing 0:05:43 to reach your goals. 0:05:44 Thanks for the question. 0:05:46 Question number two. 0:05:48 – Hey, Scott, Ryan from Philadelphia here. 0:05:49 Love the podcast. 0:05:52 Spotify told me I was in the top 2% of your listeners. 0:05:54 So objectively, I’m one of your biggest fans. 0:05:55 Here’s the question. 0:05:57 I’ve been working at a large consulting firm 0:06:00 in cybersecurity for the past 10 plus years, 0:06:03 while also leading and running multiple tech startups, 0:06:05 some of them more successful than others, 0:06:07 but obviously they’re still a side hustle. 0:06:09 As they apply to new roles within my organization 0:06:10 and even outside, 0:06:13 I’m torn whether I highlight those experiences 0:06:15 and startups or not. 0:06:18 Will it hurt me or will make my chances stronger? 0:06:22 – Ryan from Philadelphia, 2% bitch, commit. 0:06:24 Why are you in the top 1% to resist this feudal 0:06:26 given to the dog? 0:06:29 That’s right, be a 1%er. 0:06:30 – That’s a scary thought. 0:06:32 Anyways, thanks for your listenership. 0:06:35 Let’s talk a little bit about Philadelphia. 0:06:37 I had never really spent any time in Philadelphia 0:06:39 and then I went on the board of Urban Outfitters, 0:06:40 a very interesting. 0:06:44 Two of the top brands, according to millennials, 0:06:46 are Urban Outfitters and Free People, 0:06:48 both owned by Urban Outfitters. 0:06:49 Think about that. 0:06:52 One company owns two of the 10 hops brands among millennials. 0:06:55 Also, they have the coolest HQ of any company 0:06:56 I’ve ever been to. 0:06:58 They took over the Navy Yard 0:07:01 or they have their HQ at the Navy Yard in Philadelphia. 0:07:02 So you’ll be in a conference room 0:07:04 talking about quarterly financials 0:07:06 and you’ll see this old aircraft carrier 0:07:08 bobbing up and down. 0:07:11 Anyway, smart people really enjoyed my four years there. 0:07:12 I would not describe Philadelphia 0:07:13 as kind of the old Navy of cities, 0:07:15 sort of 60 or 80% of New York 0:07:17 for 40 to 60% of the price. 0:07:18 Seemed like a good quality of life 0:07:19 at a lower cost of living. 0:07:21 Anyways, Philadelphia, there you go. 0:07:23 Okay, what was your question? 0:07:24 Oh, whether or not you, 0:07:27 when applying for internal roles, 0:07:29 talk about your side hustles. 0:07:30 This is situational. 0:07:34 I can only tell you how I would respond. 0:07:37 And that is as your boss, I don’t think I’d respond well. 0:07:39 And I’d be like, Ryan, if you want a promotion, 0:07:43 here’s an idea, focus on this fucking job boss. 0:07:48 So I can tell you that I get having side hustles. 0:07:51 Actually, I don’t get having side hustles. 0:07:52 Let me cut to the chase, Ryan. 0:07:56 I think your side hustle needs to be your main hustle. 0:07:58 I think you need to have one hustle. 0:08:00 So do the hustle, but do one fucking hustle. 0:08:02 And that is if you want economic security, 0:08:05 find something that satisfies you to the extent 0:08:07 that you don’t feel the need to do a side hustle 0:08:09 and go all in on it. 0:08:12 I mean, the idea, I think the reason I’m, 0:08:15 one of the reasons I’m economically secure, 0:08:17 probably the primary reason I’m economically secure 0:08:19 is I was born in the right place at the right time. 0:08:21 But in terms of my economic security 0:08:24 coming from my professional success, it was focus. 0:08:26 And that is I went all in, Ryan. 0:08:27 I went all in. 0:08:30 I was in the office on weekends, 0:08:32 returning emails immediately. 0:08:34 If you’re at a small organization or a place 0:08:36 where people are looking to develop economic security, 0:08:38 the way you develop economic security 0:08:41 is by garnering an unfair share of that market 0:08:45 and getting more economic currency than your peer group. 0:08:47 I mean, the average wage globally 0:08:48 is I think about $18,000 a year. 0:08:51 So if you want more than that, you gotta be in an economy 0:08:53 and you gotta bring more productivity. 0:08:56 And part of that is just pure elbow grease and focus. 0:08:59 So I’ve never understood the idea of a side hustle. 0:09:00 I get it if you’re at a big company 0:09:03 and they’re paying you well and you wanna stay there, 0:09:06 but okay, if you’re gonna have a side hustle, 0:09:09 have it for a while and then it either takes off 0:09:10 and you go all in on it or give it up 0:09:12 and go all in on your company. 0:09:14 Because my guess is the fastest blue line path 0:09:16 economic security, your current job, 0:09:19 would be to be great at it or specifically great er 0:09:20 as in focus more on it. 0:09:23 So my advice to anybody who has a side hustle 0:09:25 is if, let’s put a time limit on it. 0:09:27 And if the side hustle begins to grow, 0:09:31 then quit your current job and go all in on your side hustle. 0:09:32 But the way to economic security, 0:09:33 the way to success, 0:09:36 the way to professional currency in my view 0:09:39 is 110% focus on one thing. 0:09:40 Thanks for the question. 0:09:43 We have one quick break before our final question. 0:09:44 Stay with us. 0:09:51 – Fox Creative. 0:09:53 – This is Advertiser content from Mint Mobile. 0:09:59 – Well, the first time I saw a Bengal cat was in 1991. 0:10:01 In that moment I knew my life’s work 0:10:02 would be to bring more of these 0:10:05 exquisite creatures into the world. 0:10:08 I’ve been breeding Bengal cats ever since. 0:10:14 Now it’s not easy or cheap. 0:10:16 I feed them all a strict raw food diet, 0:10:18 plus with a veterinarian 0:10:21 and an endless array of toys and activities. 0:10:24 I had to embrace personal financial responsibility 0:10:27 to make it all work. 0:10:28 I cracked down on my spending 0:10:30 and got smart about my savings. 0:10:33 My investments and my retirement. 0:10:35 Now not only are my friends jealous 0:10:37 of my cat lady lifestyle. 0:10:39 I mean, who wouldn’t be? 0:10:42 They’re jealous of my checkbook. 0:10:46 My finances are positively boring, darlings. 0:10:48 Anyone can be an expert, 0:10:50 even those you least expect. 0:10:52 Only a small-minded person would look at me 0:10:54 and think crazy cat lady. 0:11:00 I’m not crazy, I’m fabulous and fabulously wealthy. 0:11:03 At Mint Mobile, we’re experts in affordable phone plans 0:11:04 with great coverage. 0:11:07 Get unlimited premium wireless for $15 a month 0:11:09 when you buy a three-month plan. 0:11:12 Head to mintmobile.com/profg 0:11:15 to cut your wireless bill to 15 bucks a month. 0:11:17 Trust us, we’re experts. 0:11:19 $45 upfront payment required, 0:11:21 equivalent to $15 per month. 0:11:23 New customers on first three-month plan only. 0:11:27 Speeds lower above 40 gigabytes on unlimited plan. 0:11:30 Texas and Fees Extra, see Mint Mobile for details. 0:11:35 – Fox Creative. 0:11:38 – This is advertiser content from Mint Mobile. 0:11:43 – Well, the first time I saw a Bengal cat was in 1991. 0:11:46 In that moment, I knew my life’s work would be to bring 0:11:50 more of these exquisite creatures into the world. 0:11:52 I’ve been breeding Bengal cats ever since. 0:11:58 Now it’s not easy or cheap. 0:12:01 I feed them all a strict raw food diet, 0:12:04 plus with a veterinarian and an endless array 0:12:06 of toys and activities. 0:12:09 I had to embrace personal financial responsibility 0:12:11 to make it all work. 0:12:14 I cracked down on my spending and got smart 0:12:17 about my savings, my investments, and my retirement. 0:12:20 Now not only are my friends jealous 0:12:24 of my cat lady lifestyle, I mean, who wouldn’t be? 0:12:25 They’re jealous of my checkbook. 0:12:31 – My finances are positively boring, darlings. 0:12:34 – Anyone can be an expert, even those you least expect. 0:12:37 – Only a small-minded person would look at me 0:12:42 and think, “Crazy cat lady, I’m not crazy, I’m fabulous.” 0:12:44 – And fabulously wealthy. 0:12:48 – At Mint Mobile, we’re experts in affordable phone plans 0:12:49 with great coverage. 0:12:52 Get unlimited premium wireless for $15 a month 0:12:54 when you buy a three-month plan. 0:12:57 Head to mintmobile.com/profg 0:12:59 to cut your wireless bill to 15 bucks a month. 0:13:02 Trust us, we’re experts. 0:13:04 $45 upfront payment required, 0:13:06 equivalent to $15 per month. 0:13:08 New customers on first three-month plan only. 0:13:11 Speed slower above 40 gigabytes on unlimited plan. 0:13:12 Taxes and fees extra. 0:13:14 See Mint Mobile for details. 0:13:19 – Welcome back, question number three. 0:13:21 – Hey Scott, love the show and appreciate all the help 0:13:23 and guidance you bestow upon the masses. 0:13:25 My name’s Robert, I’m 30 and living in Los Angeles 0:13:27 and I’ve been working in investment banking 0:13:29 since leaving grad school, about 10 years. 0:13:31 Thus far, I’ve made a good living with this career, 0:13:33 but as of late, gotten to the point in complete disillusionment 0:13:35 with where the field ultimately takes you. 0:13:38 Among the many red flags, most of the higher-ups 0:13:40 of the firm were alcoholics and/or divorced 0:13:43 and seem to just be supporting an expensive lavish lifestyle 0:13:45 without size pay. 0:13:47 While I understand this is a privileged problem, 0:13:49 I’m about to cut the cord and quit in your future. 0:13:51 I envision my next chapter being one to two years 0:13:53 playing a tourist visa game, 0:13:54 working odd jobs around the world 0:13:57 and figuring out my next chapter in life is gonna be. 0:14:00 While I have enough save to support many months on the road, 0:14:01 I do plan to look for professional 0:14:04 and investment opportunities throughout the Odyssey. 0:14:07 Any advice you’d send my way prior to embarking? 0:14:10 – First off, I feel you. 0:14:13 Jobs typically bifurcate into one of two things. 0:14:15 They’re either very stressful, 0:14:17 but very interesting and rewarding, 0:14:20 or they’re very, very non-stressful but boarding 0:14:21 and not that intellectually stimulating. 0:14:25 I found investment banking to be this unique combination 0:14:27 of an incredibly boring subject matter 0:14:30 with a shit ton of pressure placed on it. 0:14:32 And I spent a lot of my life at the printer. 0:14:36 We actually printed prospectuses or S1s for public offerings 0:14:40 and my job was to go through this fucking prospectus, 0:14:42 this 80-page prospectus, 0:14:45 read it frontwards and backwards to find errors, 0:14:48 to make sure the base rental payment on page 33 0:14:52 wasn’t base rental payments on page 81. 0:14:54 And if I missed anything and there was a typo, 0:14:57 I could no joke, there was a good chance 0:14:58 I’d be fired the next day. 0:15:00 So I’d be up till four in the goddamn morning 0:15:01 proofing a prospectus. 0:15:04 It was just awful work. 0:15:07 I thought I was gonna be doing deals on the Concorde 0:15:08 and hanging out with interesting people. 0:15:11 Instead, I worked with a bunch of abusive assholes 0:15:13 and they were assholes. 0:15:15 And it was just incredibly boring work. 0:15:17 Now, having said that, it was a fantastic training 0:15:19 because work is hard, taught me attention to detail, 0:15:22 taught me sort of how to manage people with big egos. 0:15:24 But everyone in my firm, not everyone, 0:15:26 the majority of the senior people, not happy, 0:15:28 would rather be doing something else, 0:15:31 but it got to the point where they built a lifestyle, 0:15:34 where they needed to clock their half a million, 0:15:38 million, two million dollars a year in investment banking 0:15:40 and could either go be the CFO of a company 0:15:43 and take a 60% pay cut or go try and start a business 0:15:45 and none of them were really entrepreneurs at heart. 0:15:47 So they were kind of all trapped, if you will. 0:15:48 Now, there’s some, a small subset of them 0:15:50 that really enjoyed it. 0:15:51 But I literally think for most of them, 0:15:54 the term work was the appropriate term. 0:15:56 Anyway, the fact you’re getting out 0:15:58 and you’re pulling the ripcord, good for you. 0:16:02 Having said that, I wouldn’t take too much time on the road. 0:16:05 As a matter of fact, and it may be too late for this, 0:16:10 you know, it’s so much easier to find a job with a job. 0:16:13 Is there any way you could find a job 0:16:15 or try and figure out what you wanna do next 0:16:19 whether it’s a startup and then take your three months 0:16:20 sojourn? 0:16:22 I know that I’m sounding like your dad right now, 0:16:24 but you’re just a used car. 0:16:26 You’re not as attractive when you’re interviewing 0:16:27 and you don’t have a job. 0:16:29 There’s no sense of urgency. 0:16:32 In addition, my experience with people who kind of go 0:16:34 to touch Indians and, you know, practice yoga 0:16:36 or whatever it is you’re gonna do 0:16:38 or hang out with llamas in Argentina. 0:16:40 Do people do that as a thing? 0:16:41 I don’t think I’m gonna have this epiphany 0:16:43 of what you were meant to do. 0:16:45 Maybe, maybe, I think most people who do that kind of stuff 0:16:46 and they have an epiphany, 0:16:49 it’s that they should return to the religious roots 0:16:50 or get more involved in non-profit, 0:16:52 but they usually don’t think, 0:16:54 oh, I should really be in healthcare, 0:16:55 maintenance software or something. 0:16:58 I don’t know if that’s gonna happen on the road. 0:17:04 So look, I don’t know enough about what your skill set is. 0:17:06 If you’re at an investment bank and you’ve done well, 0:17:07 you’re good in services. 0:17:09 So that lends itself really well to consulting. 0:17:11 You have an understanding of finance. 0:17:13 So that lends itself to operations 0:17:16 or to be the CFO or in finance. 0:17:19 But my suggestion is at your age, 0:17:22 I would go or you think you have some interest 0:17:25 or you think you can leverage your investment banking skills 0:17:27 and an industry that’s growing. 0:17:29 Having said that, it means I don’t know. 0:17:31 I would need to know more about you, my brother. 0:17:34 What I would suggest though is that you begin 0:17:35 to make those inquiries sooner rather than later 0:17:37 and just so I can play dad for a moment. 0:17:39 Time’s gonna go really fast. 0:17:41 And what you don’t wanna be is wake up a year, 0:17:43 two years later and you let perfect be the enemy of good 0:17:46 and you didn’t take any offers to just chase anything down 0:17:47 and you start to smell. 0:17:49 What do I mean by that? 0:17:51 Once you’re out of the job market for longer than a year, 0:17:52 you begin to smell. 0:17:53 And I know how terrible that sounds. 0:17:54 And that was people like, what is wrong? 0:17:56 And your skills begin to atrophy. 0:17:59 So I would be making as many contacts as possible, 0:18:01 having coffees, following up with people, 0:18:04 get an idea of what you wanna do, have a plan maybe 0:18:06 and then take off. 0:18:08 But anyways, you’re obviously a very talented guy. 0:18:11 Investment banking I found paid off for the rest of my life 0:18:14 in terms of the skills and the discipline 0:18:15 and attention to detail. 0:18:16 It taught me even if you don’t like it. 0:18:19 And I also think if you don’t love it 0:18:20 or you don’t have to have the money, 0:18:22 I think you’re smart to get out. 0:18:25 It is, in my opinion, a fairly soul-crushing, 0:18:28 non-redeeming way to make a living. 0:18:31 Too much, too much. 0:18:32 Thanks for the question. 0:18:35 That’s all for this episode. 0:18:36 If you’d like to submit a question, 0:18:37 please email a voice recording 0:18:39 to officehours@proptimedia.com. 0:18:43 Again, that’s officehours@proptimedia.com. 0:18:56 Support for this special series comes from Mint Mobile. 0:18:58 If you want the best advice for questions 0:19:00 about career, parenting, and business, 0:19:01 you turn to Scott Galloway. 0:19:03 If you want the best advice for how to save 0:19:04 on your cell phone plan each month, 0:19:06 you turn to Mint Mobile. 0:19:09 Go to mintmobile.com/profg 0:19:12 to get your new three-month premium wireless plan 0:19:14 for just 15 bucks a month. 0:19:17 That’s mintmobile.com/profg. 0:19:19 $45 upfront payment required, 0:19:21 equivalent to $15 per month. 0:19:23 New customers on first three-month plan only. 0:19:26 Speed slower above 40 gigabytes on unlimited plan. 0:19:28 Taxes and fees extra. 0:19:29 See Mint Mobile for details. 0:19:31 you
Welcome to the second episode of The Prof G Pod’s special series featuring some of our favorite Office Hours moments.
Today, you’ll hear: Best of Career Advice, where Scott speaks about how to ask for a promotion at work, when and if you should ditch your full-time job for your side hustle, and when to quit your job entirely.
Prof G Markets: Breaking Down the Google Monopoly Ruling — ft. Rebecca Allensworth
AI transcript
0:00:03 Support for Prophecy comes from BetterHelp. 0:00:04 Some parts of your self-care routine 0:00:06 should be non-negotiable. 0:00:09 Maybe you skip a workout or sacrifice to a few hours of sleep, 0:00:11 but your mental health should be a priority 0:00:13 each and every week. 0:00:15 BetterHelp Online Therapy offers a safe space 0:00:17 to figure out what’s really important to you. 0:00:19 It’s entirely online and flexible enough 0:00:21 to fit into any schedule. 0:00:22 You can fill out a brief questionnaire 0:00:25 and get matched with a licensed therapist fast. 0:00:28 Never skip Therapy Day with BetterHelp. 0:00:30 Visit BetterHelp.com/PropG today 0:00:33 to get 10% off your first month. 0:00:37 That’s BetterHelpHELP.com/PropG. 0:00:42 This episode is brought to you by On Investing, 0:00:44 an original podcast from Charles Schwab. 0:00:46 Each week hosts Liz Ann Saunders, 0:00:48 Schwab’s chief investment strategist, 0:00:51 and Kathy Jones, Schwab’s chief fixed income strategist, 0:00:53 bring you fresh insights on what’s happening 0:00:55 in the markets and why, 0:00:57 and what the implications might be for your portfolio. 0:01:00 Join Kathy and Liz Ann as they explore questions like, 0:01:03 how do you evaluate corporate bonds that look interesting, 0:01:05 and what sectors are on the move right now? 0:01:07 Download the latest episode 0:01:11 and subscribe at Schwab.com/oninvesting 0:01:13 or wherever you get your podcast. 0:01:16 – Today’s number zero. 0:01:19 That’s how many stocks Democratic VP pick Tim Walz owns. 0:01:21 I’d rather talk about G.D. Vance. 0:01:23 I think he looks like one of those illustrations 0:01:24 on the back of a milk carton 0:01:26 saying what a lost child would look like now 0:01:28 if he were an adult. 0:01:30 Also Ed, he’s definitely the kind of guy 0:01:32 that invites you over for Bible study 0:01:34 and won’t stop asking if you want a massage. 0:01:36 – I like the first one, did you come up with that? 0:01:37 – I don’t come up with any of these. 0:01:42 – Oh, we need a prof to your original, that was great. 0:01:47 – There is so much good shit about G.D. Vance. 0:01:49 I mean, I absolutely, I mean, 0:01:51 with all the makeup he’s wearing, 0:01:52 he looks like he’s joined 0:01:54 a fundamentalist Christian metal band. 0:01:56 – Yeah, yeah, the eyeliner is insane, huh? 0:01:59 – The eyeliner, the guy, the guy is clearly 0:02:02 like the handmade’s tail, but he wears an eyeliner. 0:02:03 What’s going on here, Ed? 0:02:05 – Times are changing. 0:02:06 We have to accept it. 0:02:09 – He also looks like the guy that will play him on SNL. 0:02:11 Or I think he actually looks like you would look 0:02:13 at your reflection in a teaspoon. 0:02:16 I think you would look like him. 0:02:19 (laughing) 0:02:22 (singing in foreign language) 0:02:27 (singing in foreign language) 0:02:29 – One more, come on. 0:02:31 – He looks like a picture of one of those dogs 0:02:33 you see on Instagram that’s just been stung by a bee. 0:02:35 – Yeah, these are good. 0:02:36 – Should we get an update from Aspen? 0:02:38 Anything interesting going on? 0:02:39 – Trying to think. 0:02:41 My kids went to the rodeo last night. 0:02:44 It was sort of a family thing, so I didn’t do it. 0:02:45 They went to the rodeo. 0:02:48 We have some friends, all these friends. 0:02:49 Aspen is like New York. 0:02:50 Once people find you have a place there, 0:02:52 they’re like, hey, let’s get together. 0:02:53 It’d be great to catch up. 0:02:54 – When do you leave? 0:02:55 You’re heading to California, sir? 0:02:58 – Yeah, I head to Los Angeles this afternoon 0:03:00 ’cause I’m pitching this original scripted drama 0:03:01 and I have a bunch of meetings tomorrow 0:03:03 and I’ll hang out at the Beverly Hills Hotel. 0:03:04 – Favorite hotel in the world? 0:03:05 – I’ll go down to the pool 0:03:07 and put on big black sunglasses 0:03:08 and unleashed cigarette in my mouth. 0:03:10 And every woman who walks by me, 0:03:12 I take my sunglasses down and I go, 0:03:13 Jackie, marry me. 0:03:15 I make you very happy woman. 0:03:16 And nobody knows what I’m saying. 0:03:19 That’s actually Aristotle and Nassus. 0:03:21 What I thought he would have said to Jackie on Nassus. 0:03:23 – Do you think anyone understands that 0:03:24 or just wants to call security? 0:03:26 – No, I don’t think anyone understands. 0:03:27 I don’t even understand, but it doesn’t matter 0:03:32 ’cause I still find it funny because it’s so strange. 0:03:33 – I love that. 0:03:34 It’s what I call one of those. 0:03:35 So I’m super into hotels 0:03:37 and the Beverly Hills Hotel is what I call it, 0:03:38 Disney Hotel. 0:03:39 It has all these attractions. 0:03:40 It has the Polo Lounge, 0:03:42 which is this cool restaurant and bar. 0:03:44 It has this thing called, is it called the counter? 0:03:46 – Yeah, the diner, right? 0:03:48 – The diner has like the best breakfast diner. 0:03:50 It has this great pool 0:03:52 and then a great restaurant off the side of the pool. 0:03:54 So everyone will come to you. 0:03:55 You never need to leave. 0:03:58 People love coming to the Beverly Hills Hotel. 0:04:01 So I absolutely, I love it there. 0:04:04 I feel like a producer in the 50s having an affair with, 0:04:06 I don’t know, a starlet 0:04:08 or one of the gaffers or something. 0:04:10 It’s great. 0:04:11 – Well, I’m excited for you. 0:04:12 – Thank you. 0:04:12 Thanks for that. 0:04:13 All right, get to the news. 0:04:15 – Let’s start with our weekly review of Market Vitals. 0:04:18 (upbeat music) 0:04:21 (upbeat music) 0:04:23 The S&P 500 was volatile, 0:04:25 but recovered some of its Monday losses. 0:04:28 The dollar stabilized after sliding to a four month low, 0:04:31 Bitcoin rose and the yield on 10 year treasuries climbed. 0:04:33 Shifting to the headlines. 0:04:36 Shopify reported second quarter sales and profit 0:04:37 that beat expectations. 0:04:39 Revenue projections for the third quarter 0:04:40 were also higher than expected 0:04:43 and shares rose almost 18%. 0:04:46 Airbnb revenue came in higher than expected, 0:04:48 rising 11% year over year. 0:04:51 Shares dropped the most in two years, however, 0:04:53 after second quarter bookings fell below 0:04:54 analyst expectations. 0:04:57 The company also forecasted third quarter bookings 0:05:00 will grow at their slowest pace since 2020. 0:05:02 Disney’s streaming unit posted a profit 0:05:04 for the first time ever 0:05:06 and overall revenue increased 4%. 0:05:09 Still, investors were spooked by a 6% drop 0:05:12 in operating income for its theme parks in the US. 0:05:15 The stock fell more than 4%. 0:05:18 And finally, Elon Musk’s ex is suing a group 0:05:20 of major advertisers for alleged violation 0:05:21 of antitrust laws. 0:05:23 The suit claims that a group of advertisers 0:05:25 have been withholding ad dollars from ex 0:05:27 since Musk took over. 0:05:29 Ex says this was a quote, a legal boycott 0:05:31 that cost the company billions of dollars. 0:05:34 Scott, your thoughts starting with the earnings 0:05:35 from Shopify. 0:05:37 – Well, we had a really interesting interview 0:05:40 with Mark Mahaney, who’s the head of, I guess, 0:05:42 internet research for Evercore. 0:05:47 And Shopify, he said, was sort of had been overly punished. 0:05:50 And then the next day, you know, this happens, 0:05:52 revenue increased 21% and subscription revenue 0:05:53 increased 27%. 0:05:56 Subscription revenue is generally valued 0:05:59 at a greater multiple than general revenue 0:06:00 because it’s stickier. 0:06:02 Their profitability improved. 0:06:04 Operating expenses decreased quarter over quarter 0:06:06 and free cash flow margin doubled from last year. 0:06:08 So the gangster move here, the chocolate and peanut butter 0:06:12 is after a crazy amount of growth and investment 0:06:14 in sort of the new economy. 0:06:17 A lot of these CEOs have said, here’s an idea, 0:06:19 let’s cut costs and see if we can maintain some growth. 0:06:23 And if you can both cut costs as Shopify has done, 0:06:25 obviously above operating expenses decreased 0:06:28 while maintaining some growth, which they did substantially, 0:06:31 that is nitro and glycerin around earnings. 0:06:33 And that is your earnings absolutely explode. 0:06:35 – Yeah, I think it’s interesting also, you know, 0:06:38 we’ve seen all these recession fears 0:06:40 that we’ve been talking about in the past week 0:06:43 after we saw that big stock market drawdown. 0:06:46 I feel like those fears have mostly been put 0:06:47 to rest at this point, 0:06:49 but people are still kind of talking about it. 0:06:51 But if you were to make an argument today 0:06:54 as to why we are not about to enter a recession 0:06:56 or a recession is not coming, 0:07:01 I think these earnings from Shopify would probably be 0:07:03 exhibit A in your defense case. 0:07:07 You’ve got one of the largest retail platforms in the world. 0:07:09 It operates across every vertical. 0:07:13 It works with tiny, small to medium-sized businesses, 0:07:15 even to huge enterprises. 0:07:20 It works with clients like Heinz and Mattel and Luxotica. 0:07:21 It’s across all of consumer 0:07:24 and this company is experiencing historic revenue growth. 0:07:27 So I don’t think it’s a hot take for me to say, 0:07:30 I don’t think recession is on the table, 0:07:32 but if you do want to make that argument, 0:07:35 I think Shopify’s earnings are a good place to start. 0:07:38 – The only way I’m talked about that has been sort of a great, 0:07:39 I don’t know what the term is, 0:07:42 a great gift with purchase or kind of makes the story 0:07:45 that much sexier is that they are, 0:07:48 they have rolled out a number of AI-enabled tools 0:07:50 for its merchants that help you better market, 0:07:54 better allocate your capital, look at your dataset. 0:07:56 And that seems to have the market excited 0:07:58 that these small and medium-sized companies 0:08:01 now have access to these AI tools. 0:08:04 So that was part of the great story here. 0:08:06 Feels like it’s oversold. 0:08:10 Year-to-date, the company is down 8%, right? 0:08:13 So whereas when you look at Amazon year-to-date, 0:08:16 Amazon is up 10%. 0:08:18 So I just think a lot of this was, 0:08:19 when people got their pencils out, 0:08:23 they said, all right, Shopify has been unfairly punished, 0:08:25 is actually doing better than people think, 0:08:27 some AI secret sauce, 0:08:31 and it all adds up to a good trade here. 0:08:32 Should we talk about Airbnb? 0:08:33 – Let’s do it. 0:08:34 Your thoughts, you’re a big shallower, so. 0:08:37 I am, although I’ve paired a lot of my holdings. 0:08:39 Profits fell 15% year on year, 0:08:41 mostly due to higher income taxes, which is interesting. 0:08:44 I wonder why they’re paying higher income taxes. 0:08:48 Q2 bookings only increased by 9% from a year earlier, 0:08:51 still good but below expectations. 0:08:55 Airbnb said it expects a sequential moderation 0:08:56 of bookings growth in the third. 0:08:58 Can you imagine how many high-paid comms consultants 0:09:02 came up with the term sequential moderation? 0:09:05 I mean, literally, if you’re having sex with someone 0:09:06 and you just want to kill the moment, 0:09:09 start screaming sequential moderation. 0:09:10 What the fuck does that even mean? 0:09:13 Anyways, booking lead times got shorter, 0:09:15 a sign that customers have less confidence 0:09:17 in making long-term financial commitments. 0:09:19 I wonder if people are a little bit running out of money 0:09:21 or they’re returning to the office 0:09:23 or they’re not deciding to take a backpack 0:09:26 and go work from Thailand. 0:09:29 I don’t know, Airbnb also expects margins to contract 0:09:32 in Q3 as a result of higher marketing spend. 0:09:34 One of the things I always loved about Airbnb 0:09:35 is that they were one of the few companies 0:09:37 that was able to exit the stranglehold 0:09:40 of Metta, Alphabet, and Amazon, 0:09:42 that the majority of their bookings are direct to site. 0:09:45 So when you go and book a hotel, 0:09:47 such as the Beverly Hills Hotel, 0:09:50 and you use Expedia, which I love, I love the Expedia site, 0:09:54 if that traffic to the Dorchester collection 0:09:56 who owns the Beverly Hills Hotel comes in through Expedia, 0:10:01 Expedia gets anywhere between $100 and $400 a night 0:10:07 of the $1300 a night that these firms are charging now, 0:10:09 which dramatically reduces their margin, whereas Airbnb 0:10:12 doesn’t have to pay the toll nearly as often. 0:10:15 So I’ve always thought that Airbnb was the best brand 0:10:17 at hospitality in the last several decades. 0:10:21 As expected, the Olympics helped increase demand in Paris, 0:10:23 nights booked in Paris for strangle in the Olympics 0:10:25 were over five X higher than the same time a year ago. 0:10:27 That’s not a shocker. 0:10:29 The stock was down 13% after earnings. 0:10:32 Jesus, that’s a hit, right? 0:10:34 The bottom line is I think they would have been fine, 0:10:36 the numbers were fine, but what they’re saying is 0:10:37 they’re trying to prep people for what sounds like 0:10:40 it’s gonna be a shitty next quarter. 0:10:43 And that term sequential moderation costs the company 0:10:45 about $10 billion. 0:10:47 So this is not about their performance, 0:10:49 it’s about their guidance. 0:10:50 – Yeah, I think that’s exactly right. 0:10:52 I think sequential moderation was the line 0:10:53 that freaked Wall Street out. 0:10:56 And the other line that freaked them out was quote, 0:11:00 we’re seeing signs of slowing demand from US guests. 0:11:02 So I think a lot of this is wrapped up 0:11:07 in those more general fears about a recession in the US 0:11:08 that we’ve been talking about 0:11:11 that we saw play out in the markets last week. 0:11:14 I believe as it relates to Airbnb, 0:11:16 those fears are really overblown. 0:11:20 If you look at Airbnb’s previous earnings report, 0:11:22 which we also discussed on this podcast, 0:11:23 they said almost the exact same thing. 0:11:26 They said, we’re seeing a moderation 0:11:28 and we’re seeing signs of slowdown 0:11:30 and the market didn’t really like it, 0:11:34 but they weren’t as upset about it as they were this time. 0:11:37 I think if you are a long-term shareholder 0:11:39 in this company though, 0:11:41 I really don’t think any of this should bother you 0:11:44 because everything we’re talking about right now 0:11:48 is about near-term consumer demand. 0:11:50 And all of that consumer demand is cyclical. 0:11:53 None of this has to do with Airbnb 0:11:55 as a business on its own. 0:11:57 And all the things that make Airbnb great, 0:12:00 you know, you said this, the best brand in hospitality, 0:12:02 number one travel app in the world, 0:12:06 one of the most network-advantaged companies you could buy 0:12:09 in the US stock market, none of that has changed. 0:12:11 This is still a great company. 0:12:14 It’s just the consumer that has supposedly changed. 0:12:16 – So more importantly, 0:12:18 I think the two of us should start a boy band 0:12:20 called Sequential Moderation. 0:12:21 You’re gonna be the dreamy front man. 0:12:25 I’m gonna be the brooding, depressed backup guy 0:12:27 that develops a heroin addict and then overdoses. 0:12:29 And then you’ll do it behind the music, 0:12:31 talking about what a good guy that was. 0:12:33 By the way, if you’re wondering 0:12:36 if they still sell edibles in Aspen, 0:12:38 I think I just answered the question. 0:12:40 By the way, I think it’s time we started talking 0:12:41 about legal edible products. 0:12:45 I use Wild Time to help me wind down at night. 0:12:46 I do five milligrams. 0:12:48 The peach keeps me awake 0:12:50 and the grape is just too much, Ed. 0:12:51 It’s just too much. 0:12:54 It’s like being hit over the head with a sledgehammer. 0:12:56 – Have you ever recorded a podcast under the influence? 0:12:57 That’s a genuine question, by the way. 0:12:58 – No, I never have. 0:12:59 – We should change that. 0:13:01 – I don’t think I’ve ever been under the influence 0:13:02 during when the sun’s out. 0:13:04 Yeah, I’m not, that’s not my gig. 0:13:05 How about you? 0:13:07 How about tell all your future employers 0:13:08 and potential mates? 0:13:10 – No, no, no, not yet. 0:13:11 Not yet. 0:13:13 I’m happy to change that, but we have to do it together. 0:13:15 That’s my only rule. 0:13:17 – No, I don’t think anyone needs to see that. 0:13:21 I become a better version of myself a little bit fucked up. 0:13:24 I’m nicer, more affectionate, more complimentary. 0:13:27 I’m definitely a much more interesting, 0:13:28 a little bit fucked up. 0:13:29 Anyways. 0:13:30 – Yeah, we have things to cover. 0:13:33 The next thing we have to cover is Disney’s earnings. 0:13:36 What are your thoughts on finally some profitability 0:13:37 in the streaming unit? 0:13:39 – I thought, I was shocked that the stock 0:13:41 didn’t respond more positively. 0:13:45 ‘Cause I saw this as, I saw this as a pretty good quarter. 0:13:49 Revenue up 4%, the EPS up 35%. 0:13:51 So again, see above, same thing, right? 0:13:53 That means they reduce their expenses 0:13:55 while maintaining growth. 0:13:57 So the company recorded a loss in the year ago quarter, 0:14:00 largely result of restructuring charges, 0:14:02 making the jump in EPS this quarter less substantive. 0:14:04 So you could argue it was sort of an artificial jump, 0:14:06 but still I was impressed. 0:14:10 Where I think people got freaked out was that 0:14:13 the experiences division, which is the parks, 0:14:17 revenue increased 2% while operating income declined 3%. 0:14:20 And executives blamed moderating consumer demand. 0:14:22 Again, more of this, at least they didn’t call 0:14:24 sequential moderation. 0:14:26 Disney’s CFO said the lower income consumer 0:14:29 is feeling a bit of stress and the higher income consumer 0:14:32 is traveling internationally a bit more. 0:14:33 Those are both really interesting things. 0:14:36 One, people are running out of stimulus or PPP 0:14:37 or whatever you want to call it. 0:14:40 And something I’ve actually tangibly noticed in Aspen, 0:14:42 I’ve been coming here, I don’t know, 0:14:43 eight or 10 summers in a row. 0:14:48 The last two summers, it’s dramatically less crowded. 0:14:51 And I think it’s because the high-end consumer 0:14:55 who accurately decides who comes to Aspen 0:14:57 has all this pent-up demand to go to Europe 0:14:59 ’cause they didn’t go for three or four years during COVID. 0:15:04 And so I think that they are leaving basically going 0:15:07 to the Amalfi Coast ’cause I haven’t been there in a while. 0:15:09 But the experiences group of the parks 0:15:12 was always sort of the cash cow 0:15:13 that kept on giving at Disney. 0:15:16 They could go play in traffic with streaming, 0:15:18 have their problems with ABC or activists, 0:15:22 but they could always rely on a massive amount 0:15:23 of cash flow from the experiences. 0:15:26 I think that they probably haven’t given the parks 0:15:29 the love they deserve in terms of catbacks. 0:15:32 I think they weren’t milking them a little too much. 0:15:34 It’s expensive and not that great. 0:15:36 It’s the way I would describe Disney right now. 0:15:38 And I think they recognized this, 0:15:41 and a year ago they were gonna start making more investments, 0:15:44 but they got used to this massive cash flows 0:15:45 in this milking. 0:15:46 And I think they’ve, quite frankly, 0:15:47 I just think they milked it a little too hard 0:15:50 and they’re starting to see the consumer turn away 0:15:50 to other options. 0:15:53 And I think this has spooked the market that, 0:15:56 oh, the parks aren’t just gonna keep generating cash flow 0:15:57 without catbacks. 0:16:00 Last year, Disney experiences contributed 70% 0:16:01 of Disney’s operating profit 0:16:03 up from about 30% a decade ago. 0:16:05 God, that’s incredible. 0:16:07 And there were some other positives this quarter. 0:16:08 Disney’s streaming division generated a profit for the 0:16:09 first time. 0:16:11 I think that’s a big deal. 0:16:15 And they also had that big movie inside out, part two. 0:16:16 Is that what it was called? 0:16:16 – Uh-huh. 0:16:17 – What did it do? 0:16:19 It had like one and a half billion dollars. 0:16:21 I’m finally at the stage where my kids are old enough 0:16:25 that we don’t have to go to every single kid’s movie. 0:16:30 I saw the emoji movie in theaters, Ed, the emoji movie 0:16:33 where the star was like that four-fingered hand. 0:16:35 Oh my God, don’t have kids, Ed. 0:16:37 Don’t have kids. 0:16:38 Anyways. 0:16:40 – Yeah, the start that caught my attention the most 0:16:44 was “Inside Out 2” which I saw, very mediocre movie. 0:16:46 – You saw “Inside Out 2”? 0:16:47 – I saw it, yeah. 0:16:48 – Why would you choose to do that? 0:16:50 You don’t have to do that. 0:16:52 Why would anyone choose to do that? 0:16:54 – That’s what I realized after. 0:16:56 – Oh wait, and you claim not to do edibles? 0:16:59 There’s no way you saw that sober. 0:17:00 – I kept on seeing it on my social media 0:17:03 and saying it’s the best Pixar movie of all time. 0:17:04 It’s incredible. 0:17:05 It sucked. 0:17:08 It was terrible, but everyone disagrees with me. 0:17:09 – Who did you go with? 0:17:12 – I threw it in my girlfriend and you’re gonna give me some. 0:17:13 – A little night out. 0:17:14 – Yeah, there you go. 0:17:15 That’s what we do. 0:17:17 – A little dating hall of lame. 0:17:20 Hey, sweetie, let’s go to “Inside Out 2”. 0:17:22 So let me just give you a little bit of heads up. 0:17:25 – Oh no, oh my God. 0:17:26 – You got a few of those swings and a miss, 0:17:28 but you can’t repeatedly do that 0:17:31 or she’s gonna end up going out with an older guy 0:17:32 who like takes her to St. Bart’s 0:17:34 not to some lame fucking Pixar movie. 0:17:35 Get it together, Ed. 0:17:37 – Yeah, we did the best of both worlds. 0:17:39 We like to do both of them. 0:17:43 But it sold $1.6 billion in tickets, 0:17:45 which makes it the highest grossing animated film 0:17:46 of all time. 0:17:47 – Amazing. 0:17:49 – That’s just absurd to me. 0:17:52 I can’t wrap my head around that. 0:17:56 And that’s all I could focus on on this earnings. 0:18:00 I don’t really care if streaming’s profitable now. 0:18:03 I’m like, wow, $1.6 billion at the box office. 0:18:06 Everyone was saying movie theaters were dead 0:18:07 just a couple of years ago. 0:18:09 And now they’ve come roaring back 0:18:11 with “Wait For It, Inside Out 2”. 0:18:13 So it’s just incredible. 0:18:15 Let’s move on to X’s lawsuit. 0:18:18 I’m sure you have a lot of things to say. 0:18:23 I saw your very good host on threads. 0:18:25 Thoughts on X’s lawsuit here. 0:18:26 – This is not only stupid, 0:18:29 it reflects something that’s a little bit more mendacious. 0:18:34 So the idea that someone who claims to be a free speech warrior, 0:18:36 which by the way is total bullshit 0:18:38 on kind of the supply side. 0:18:41 He throttles the speech of the New York times 0:18:43 when we have white dudes for Harris, 0:18:47 somehow the account for white dudes for Harris 0:18:48 shut down during the speech, 0:18:51 somehow just went offline. 0:18:54 And then to claim that he’s a free speech warrior, 0:18:56 advertising is a form of speech 0:18:58 and your ability not to say something. 0:19:00 So people often ask me are you upset 0:19:03 that other people aren’t speaking up about Israel? 0:19:05 I’m like, free speech means I get to say what I want, 0:19:08 but it also means someone has the opportunity 0:19:10 to not say something if they don’t want. 0:19:11 That’s their right. 0:19:13 And it’s the same way with advertisers. 0:19:15 The notion that you have some sort of legal obligation 0:19:17 to advertise across any platform, 0:19:20 especially the Nazi porn bar that is Twitter now, 0:19:22 is just fucking ridiculous. 0:19:25 The suit alleges that this group, 0:19:28 the Global Alliance for Responsible Media or GARM, 0:19:30 triggered a boycott of Twitter ads 0:19:32 immediately following Musk’s purchase of the company 0:19:33 in October, 2022. 0:19:37 GARM encouraged advertisers to avoid X after Musk bought it. 0:19:39 And this quote unquote illegal boycott, 0:19:42 according to the suit cost X billions of dollars in revenue. 0:19:45 Musk wrote on X, we tried being nice for two years, 0:19:47 might by telling them to go fuck themselves. 0:19:48 He literally said that on stage. 0:19:49 He was trying to play nice. 0:19:53 That’s him nice and got nothing but empty words. 0:19:54 Now it’s war. 0:19:56 Really boss? 0:19:57 Really? 0:19:59 X generated almost one and a half billion in revenue 0:20:01 for the first six months of 2023, 0:20:04 down almost 40% from the same period in 2022 0:20:06 before Musk bought the company. 0:20:10 You have never seen a company over a billion dollars 0:20:13 during non-war time decline. 0:20:17 The way that X is literally the worst performing business 0:20:20 in modern history outside of war time. 0:20:23 And so they’re going to start suing advertisers. 0:20:25 This just makes apps of fucking literally no sense. 0:20:26 What are your thoughts, Ed? 0:20:27 – I think you nailed it. 0:20:30 And I think that desperate people do desperate things. 0:20:35 And the reality for X is that their revenue has fallen 83% 0:20:38 in the past two years. 0:20:40 They went from 700 million in quarterly revenue 0:20:44 to just over 100 million in the most recent quarter. 0:20:45 – Is that right? 0:20:46 Because if they generate one and a half million revenue 0:20:47 in six months. 0:20:49 – That’s what the New York Times has reported. 0:20:51 Is that in their most recent quarter, 0:20:54 they made over a hundred million dollars in revenue. 0:20:57 And in 2022, in the same quarter, 0:20:59 the number was 700 million dollars. 0:21:00 – So I just want to be clear. 0:21:03 The New York Times is claiming the most recent quarter. 0:21:04 They did a hundred million. 0:21:05 – Yes. 0:21:06 – Well, that means the company’s almost out of business. 0:21:07 – Exactly. 0:21:09 – That means it’s basically totally imploded. 0:21:13 Did you see the hostage video that CEO Linda Yaccarino 0:21:14 put out? 0:21:16 – So I was going to get to that too, exactly. 0:21:17 – I thought it was a parody. 0:21:21 The evidence and facts are on our side. 0:21:23 They conspire to boycott X, 0:21:26 which threatens our ability to thrive in the future. 0:21:30 That puts your global town square, 0:21:33 the one place that you can express yourself freely 0:21:36 and openly at long-term risk. 0:21:40 – I have some advice for her and for Elon and for X. 0:21:45 They need to go to Metta and they need to find and locate 0:21:49 whoever was behind Mark Zuckerberg’s rebrand, 0:21:53 and then they need to give whatever drug they gave Mark 0:21:55 to make Mark look cool suddenly. 0:21:56 They need to give Linda Yaccarino that drug, 0:21:59 because that video, as you have just pointed out, 0:22:03 that was, in my view, one of the most awkward, 0:22:07 stiffest, weirdest statements I’ve ever seen from a CEO. 0:22:09 It did look like she was at gunpoint. 0:22:11 – It’s one thing to accept a job 0:22:13 as the internet’s best compensated rodeo clown, 0:22:16 but it’s another thing to watch this person perform it. 0:22:18 – Well, I don’t blame her for taking the job. 0:22:19 I would have taken the job for sure. 0:22:20 – Yeah, I agree. 0:22:23 – It’s just, it was a trap. 0:22:26 I mean, there’s no way that you can do that job right. 0:22:31 I guess it’s a question of doing it as not badly as possible. 0:22:33 I think it’s an impossible job there. 0:22:34 We’ll be right back after the break 0:22:37 for our conversation with Professor Rebecca Allensworth. 0:22:39 If you’re enjoying the show so far 0:22:40 and you haven’t subscribed, 0:22:43 be sure to give ProfG Markets a follow 0:22:44 wherever you get your podcasts. 0:22:53 – Support 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ProfG Markets. 0:26:00 Google is a monopoly. 0:26:02 That is the ruling from Judge Amit Mehta 0:26:05 on the biggest U.S. antitrust trial in decades. 0:26:08 Judge Mehta found Google has illegally exploited 0:26:09 its dominance in the search business 0:26:12 to crush competition and suppress innovation. 0:26:14 It’s roughly 90% share of the market 0:26:17 was evidence of that dominance. 0:26:18 Here to help us break down the ruling 0:26:21 and what it means for Google and the rest of Big Tech 0:26:23 is Professor Rebecca Allensworth, 0:26:24 Associate Dean for Research 0:26:26 at Vanderbilt University Law School. 0:26:29 Professor Allensworth, thank you very much for joining us. 0:26:30 – Thanks for having me. 0:26:32 (upbeat music) 0:26:35 So let’s just start with the background here. 0:26:38 This is a ruling on a lawsuit brought against Google 0:26:40 by the Department of Justice. 0:26:45 What exactly were the DOJ’s accusations in this lawsuit? 0:26:48 – Well, the DOJ claims that Google monopolized 0:26:51 the search market and the advertising market. 0:26:54 And monopolization in the U.S. requires two showings. 0:26:57 One, that the company is indeed a monopolist. 0:26:59 In other words, that it has monopoly power 0:27:01 that, as you said, was found here 0:27:05 by virtue of Google’s size in the search market 0:27:08 and in a relevant advertising market. 0:27:09 And then that’s not enough though. 0:27:12 It’s not enough to be a monopolist to violate the law. 0:27:16 You have to have maintained or obtained that monopoly 0:27:19 using some sort of exclusionary tactics. 0:27:23 In this case, that was exclusive dealing contracts 0:27:27 that Google has with Apple and Mozilla 0:27:30 and in the Android ecosystem 0:27:34 that essentially make it the default search engine 0:27:37 on almost all mobile devices. 0:27:40 And that that kind of prevented any avenues 0:27:44 for competitors to use to get to the kind of scale 0:27:46 that they would need to build a better search engine 0:27:48 that could actually compete with Google. 0:27:52 So the idea is that Google kind of foreclosed its rivals 0:27:54 from entry into the search market. 0:27:58 – We’ve been talking about antitrust for years now, 0:28:00 Scott, especially. 0:28:02 The way I would describe the antitrust conversation 0:28:05 is that it is just that, just a conversation. 0:28:08 It’s kind of all talk, very little action. 0:28:11 Most big tech companies have not faced much 0:28:12 substantive enforcement. 0:28:15 Maybe that’s about to change, 0:28:18 but what’s different about this lawsuit today 0:28:22 versus all the other lawsuits we’ve covered in the past? 0:28:24 – Well, I guess I wouldn’t argue that they’re that 0:28:25 different. 0:28:26 So I think if you’re talking about antitrust 0:28:28 being all talk and no action, 0:28:33 you’re kind of having to go back to a time before 2020. 0:28:35 So this suit was filed in 2020. 0:28:38 It was at the end of the Trump administration. 0:28:41 But largely this push for antitrust enforcement, 0:28:42 especially against big tech companies 0:28:44 is associated with the Biden administration. 0:28:46 And there’s been a lot of action, 0:28:47 so I wouldn’t call it talk. 0:28:52 If what you mean is actual decisions in these cases, 0:28:54 it’s true that this is the first 0:28:58 of all the major monopolization cases to come to trial. 0:29:01 These cases take a very long time to bring, 0:29:02 and they always have. 0:29:05 In fact, one of the most famous monopolization cases 0:29:06 from more than a century ago, 0:29:09 Standard Oil also took five years. 0:29:11 So part of the answer to your question 0:29:12 is what’s different about this one 0:29:14 is that it’s just the first to be decided. 0:29:16 In fact, something very similar could happen 0:29:19 in some of these pending monopolization cases. 0:29:21 – What do you think the potential remedies are? 0:29:23 What happens now to Google 0:29:25 to try and rectify the monopoly maintenance? 0:29:27 – Well, that is the big question. 0:29:28 And nobody really knows. 0:29:30 This judge has been very careful 0:29:33 not to tip his hand about remedies. 0:29:35 Some people have been very excited 0:29:37 about the possibility of a breakup. 0:29:40 I think that that’s really, really unlikely in this case. 0:29:43 Not only because breakups are sort of disfavored remedies 0:29:45 and seen as a bit extreme. 0:29:48 And I’ll note that even though the decision 0:29:50 that came down on Monday is a huge win for the government 0:29:54 and a big loss for Google, it’s also very careful. 0:29:55 It’s really not out there. 0:30:00 It’s very much couched in traditional antitrust terms. 0:30:01 And so I would be very surprised 0:30:03 to see this judge go for a remedy 0:30:05 that would be seen as out there. 0:30:07 The other reason why I think a breakup is unlikely 0:30:10 is because there’s not a natural or simple way 0:30:12 in which you would break up this company 0:30:15 to address the harms from this lawsuit. 0:30:17 A different example would be the Facebook lawsuit. 0:30:19 So there’s a pending monopolization claim 0:30:24 against Meta because Facebook acquired Instagram in 2012 0:30:27 and WhatsApp a couple of years later. 0:30:30 Well, it would seem like if that’s monopolization, 0:30:33 a natural remedy would be to force divestiture 0:30:35 of these kind of independent properties. 0:30:37 We don’t really have that in the Google case. 0:30:40 So anyway, that’s a long way of saying, 0:30:42 I think that breakup is off the table. 0:30:44 More likely, I think they’ll enjoy 0:30:46 the kinds of exclusive dealing contracts 0:30:48 that were found to be unlawful here. 0:30:51 That might result in a choice screen for us 0:30:53 when it comes to using search. 0:30:55 – Choice screen meaning when you open up your phone, 0:30:58 you’re given multiple different options 0:31:00 of what browser you wanna use, right? 0:31:02 – The doubles in the design details, right? 0:31:04 Is this a choice screen that happens 0:31:06 when you open up your phone, as you say? 0:31:08 What is it a choice between? 0:31:11 Is it a choice once and then it’s the default forever? 0:31:14 So these are all questions, I think, 0:31:16 that will be raised in this next phase of litigation. 0:31:19 But yes, put simply, I’m calling a choice screen 0:31:22 some sort of moment where the user is able to decide 0:31:25 this is the search engine that I want to use, 0:31:27 be it Google or Bing or DuckDuckGo 0:31:29 or some other product. 0:31:32 – I mean, I’m just saying from a consumer preference standpoint, 0:31:36 I wouldn’t be surprised if they maintain that 93% share. 0:31:38 It has an outstanding product. 0:31:40 People are just sort of inclined to click 0:31:42 on the Google logo. 0:31:46 And then, but it diminishes the power of Apple 0:31:49 to extract, exorbitant $20 billion a year 0:31:51 by being the default. 0:31:54 Could this end up being sort of a net neutral for Alphabet 0:31:55 and hurting Apple a lot? 0:31:57 – So this is gonna say, let’s put it this way, 0:32:01 this is gonna save Google a lot of money 0:32:04 because they’re gonna get potentially for free 0:32:06 what they were having to pay a lot for 0:32:08 and that could hurt Apple. 0:32:12 But I think viewing it in that sort of zero sum 0:32:14 way is maybe incorrect 0:32:18 because I don’t think revenue sharing is gonna go away. 0:32:23 So that $20 billion payment represents 0:32:24 the revenue sharing agreement. 0:32:26 I don’t think that it’s necessarily true 0:32:29 that now that there won’t be a default 0:32:33 that there are some sort of like exclusive default 0:32:35 that there won’t be some sort of revenue sharing. 0:32:38 For example, at trial it was shown 0:32:43 that Apple tried to negotiate for a less lucrative 0:32:46 revenue sharing agreement if Google agreed 0:32:48 it would not be exclusive. 0:32:50 So in other words, if it opened up the possibility 0:32:55 for Apple to also use to push its own search product 0:32:58 or maybe Bing or something, Google refused. 0:33:00 Now maybe Google can’t refuse that 0:33:02 and yet so that revenue sharing will go down. 0:33:03 So I’m not sure it’s net a total 0:33:06 like $20 billion change of hands. 0:33:08 There’s also other dynamics in here 0:33:10 that we need to put in play. 0:33:13 So I totally agree that if I were now 0:33:15 presently given a choice between DuckDuckGo, 0:33:17 and in fact I am in a way given a choice 0:33:21 between DuckDuckGo, Bing and Google, I would pick Google. 0:33:27 However, it would seem that that 94% share 0:33:30 is vulnerable in a world in which 0:33:32 there’s not this exclusive default. 0:33:36 Otherwise, what was Google paying for? 0:33:39 And so over time, I think it’s reasonable to assume 0:33:41 that if you open up these barriers, 0:33:43 something will change within this market. 0:33:45 It kind of unfreezes the market 0:33:50 and does it on day two, really alter Google’s market share? 0:33:51 Maybe not right away. 0:33:53 Does it make that market share more vulnerable? 0:33:54 I think so. 0:33:57 – One thing I found really interesting 0:34:00 is that the Google’s stock 0:34:03 wasn’t actually affected too heavily by this decision. 0:34:06 It did fall, but so did the rest of the market. 0:34:10 And this drop wasn’t that much more pronounced 0:34:11 than the rest of the stock market, 0:34:14 which leads me to believe that Wall Street 0:34:18 isn’t worried about this from a shareholder perspective. 0:34:21 Perhaps they think Google won’t be punished 0:34:23 or that if it is punished, 0:34:25 the punishment is gonna be extremely light. 0:34:27 I’m wondering if you have any thoughts on that 0:34:29 and is Wall Street correct 0:34:31 if that’s what they’re assuming here? 0:34:32 – Okay, well you have a lot more expertise 0:34:35 about whether movement of the markets 0:34:37 actually reflects real information 0:34:39 about whether the future will happen. 0:34:41 And I tend to be a little skeptical about that, 0:34:45 but I think the fact that the markets didn’t move 0:34:48 in a way that reflected panic about Google 0:34:50 makes perfect sense to me for a few reasons. 0:34:54 One, reasonable antitrust law enforcement 0:34:56 is not gonna destroy these companies. 0:34:58 It is going to shift their tactics. 0:35:01 It’s gonna make them compete harder. 0:35:04 I don’t see that meaning that Google’s not a good bet, right? 0:35:09 I don’t think that that’s a reason to sell your Google stock, 0:35:12 that the only reason why this company is worth investing in 0:35:15 is because it has a lockdown illegal monopoly 0:35:18 and when that’s threatened, the company’s worthless. 0:35:20 That’s just sort of a straw man argument, 0:35:21 which is another reason why I think 0:35:22 when the tech companies say, 0:35:24 “Why are you trying to destroy us, America? 0:35:26 “We make your most valuable products.” 0:35:29 That’s also a little bit of a straw man argument. 0:35:31 The other thing is this is gonna take a very long time. 0:35:34 This is gonna take potentially years. 0:35:36 I would say potentially up to a year 0:35:37 before we know what the remedy is, 0:35:40 whether it’s strong or weak or whatever. 0:35:42 And probably another year before it’s implemented. 0:35:44 And so this is where I defer to the experts 0:35:46 on how markets move, 0:35:49 but I think it would be strange to sell off in a scenario 0:35:52 where you’re worried about losing value two years from now. 0:35:53 – Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. 0:35:55 And also Google will appeal, right? 0:35:57 – Yeah, that’s why it’s gonna take, 0:35:59 so I think that we may have a decision 0:36:01 on the question of remedy within a year, 0:36:03 but then the whole thing will be appealed. 0:36:06 – What do you think their argument would be? 0:36:09 If we were to try to steal man the other side of this, 0:36:11 how do you think Google will argue 0:36:14 that those $20 billion payments to Apple were kosher 0:36:16 and that they are in fact not a monopoly? 0:36:18 – Well, I mean, they made these arguments at trial. 0:36:22 The argument that they’re not a monopoly is pretty weak. 0:36:26 I think that they gave the government more of a run 0:36:27 for its money on the question of, 0:36:30 what did these payments really represent? 0:36:34 And they presented them as profit sharing. 0:36:35 We have an extremely valuable product. 0:36:37 People love it, people use it a lot. 0:36:40 And we have so many eyeballs on our stuff day in and day out 0:36:43 that we make a lot of money off of advertising revenue. 0:36:47 It’s only natural that we would wanna share that revenue 0:36:50 through our distribution channels 0:36:52 with our distribution partners like Apple. 0:36:54 That was sort of the thrust of their argument. 0:36:56 And the place where it fell apart was on the idea 0:36:59 that, okay, fine, share it. 0:37:01 Why does it have to be exclusive? 0:37:04 What is the value? 0:37:06 Not to Google, which is clear, the value, 0:37:10 but what is the value to consumers that this be exclusive? 0:37:13 (upbeat music) 0:37:14 – We’ll be right back. 0:37:26 This episode is brought to you by On Investing, 0:37:29 an original podcast from Charles Schwab. 0:37:32 Each week hosts Liz Ann Saunders, 0:37:33 Schwab’s Chief Investment Strategist, 0:37:36 and Kathy Jones, Schwab’s Chief Fixed Income Strategist, 0:37:38 analyze economic developments 0:37:41 and bring context to conversations around equities, 0:37:44 fixed income, the economy, and more. 0:37:46 Join Kathy, Liz Ann, and their guests 0:37:47 as they share insights 0:37:50 on what might be moving the markets and why, 0:37:51 as well as what indicators they are watching 0:37:53 for signs of change. 0:37:55 They’ll also answer investor questions 0:37:57 on everything from how sectors are evolving 0:37:59 to what the bond markets are telling us, 0:38:01 to where to look for 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0:39:55 but the reality is these things take a while 0:39:57 and I’ve just been impatient. 0:39:59 But it is annoying how long it takes. 0:40:01 But do you think this decision 0:40:04 will have any effects on those cases? 0:40:06 Does the fact that Judge Mehta ruled 0:40:08 in favor of the Department of Justice 0:40:12 do anything to affect what’s going on with Metta 0:40:14 and Microsoft and all these other big tech companies? 0:40:17 – Absolutely, in ways that are big and small 0:40:19 and short-term and long-term. 0:40:20 So it’s hard to know where to start. 0:40:24 But the first is just that this is an indication 0:40:26 of the times that we’re in now. 0:40:31 This is a data point of how a sort of careful legalistic, 0:40:34 pretty much down the middle federal judge 0:40:37 thinks about this kind of monopolization case 0:40:39 of which there are four other ones pending. 0:40:41 So it’s just kind of like a test case. 0:40:43 And I think for that reason, 0:40:46 we can think about what it means about the other cases. 0:40:48 Not that they’re all as strong as this one. 0:40:49 They have their own problems, 0:40:52 but it is a data point that I think is very relevant. 0:40:54 And the other is in specific holdings that he made, 0:40:56 that these are not gonna be presidential, 0:40:58 you don’t have to follow them 0:41:00 if you’re a judge in another case. 0:41:03 But he said a lot about how you define a market in tech, 0:41:06 about the power of defaults, 0:41:09 about the importance of scale in tech markets 0:41:12 that are in various ways relevant to these other cases. 0:41:14 And so I think that it could be hugely influential 0:41:16 in those ways too. 0:41:17 – Quick question, professor. 0:41:20 Imagine there’s a presidential candidate 0:41:22 and a VP candidate and his VP 0:41:25 are basically sort of bought and owned by the tech industry. 0:41:27 That some tech bros have said, 0:41:30 we’ll get you a billion dollars, 0:41:32 but we want you to take a very much of free markets, 0:41:34 laissez-faire, hands-off approach to tech. 0:41:35 Could they– 0:41:36 – Is this a hypothetical? 0:41:38 – This is a total hypothetical. 0:41:40 So imagine a different world 0:41:41 where you had an insurrectionist 0:41:43 and a rapist running for president. 0:41:47 – Okay, so they get elected. 0:41:49 Could they effectively, if they decided, 0:41:51 could they undo this decision 0:41:54 or just make it essentially neuter the whole thing 0:41:55 and stop it? 0:41:58 – Yes, technically. 0:42:03 So they could, from a legal perspective, 0:42:06 they could not appeal. 0:42:08 For example, they could abandon their appeal. 0:42:11 They could change what’s being sought on remedy. 0:42:13 So I think the remedy phase 0:42:15 is going to last probably through the election. 0:42:18 But I will remind you that this hypothetical 0:42:21 presidential candidate was the president 0:42:22 when this case was brought. 0:42:27 So it’s actually not a Biden administration case. 0:42:29 So it would be optically odd 0:42:34 for this particular case to switch horses in that way. 0:42:36 – You mean hypocritical and inconsistent? 0:42:40 – So maybe the answer is that definitely will be abandoned. 0:42:44 I think the conventional wisdom is that it won’t be. 0:42:49 And for that, I defer to some regulators 0:42:53 and former heads of these agencies that have said that, 0:42:56 that this will kind of survive into the, 0:42:58 I mean, part of it is like, 0:43:00 so now we’re talking politics and not antitrust 0:43:01 and I’ll do my best here, 0:43:06 but I could see somebody spinning this 0:43:09 to their own advantage as their own win 0:43:11 in a way that actually was politically expedient, 0:43:14 even if it is against a big tech company. 0:43:14 – When I saw this, 0:43:18 I saw that the biggest or the most important feature 0:43:21 of this decision wasn’t what happens to Alphabet 0:43:24 or even to its partners. 0:43:28 It’s just that it feels like antitrust has its mojo back. 0:43:30 And that this is sort of, 0:43:33 there was a general almost a bereft resignation. 0:43:36 That’s a redundant that we had been overrun 0:43:38 by these guys or government just couldn’t compete, 0:43:40 the government couldn’t, 0:43:42 they kind of show up and almost dare them 0:43:43 to try and do this shit, 0:43:45 that they had more lawyers, 0:43:47 public sentiment behind them, 0:43:49 consumers love their products, 0:43:52 try to take us on. 0:43:56 And the DOJ and the FTC have, 0:43:59 and they’ve taken on one of the biggest 0:44:01 and most well-resourced and most overlawered 0:44:04 and over lobbyist and they’ve won. 0:44:08 And this to me represents a change in the tide 0:44:10 where the government and the kind of antitrust folks 0:44:13 have their mojo back and might inspire 0:44:16 some of these companies to prophylactically, 0:44:18 I mean, I can see Alphabet spinning YouTube, 0:44:21 I can see Amazon spinning AWS going, 0:44:23 you know, we’re gonna become more valuable 0:44:25 and we wanna get out in front of this 0:44:27 because clearly these guys are no longer afraid of us 0:44:29 and judges are no longer afraid to rule against us. 0:44:33 It feels like momentum has shifted dramatically here. 0:44:34 Your thoughts? 0:44:36 – I mean, I could not have put it better than that. 0:44:39 That is what I think is so important about this case. 0:44:41 You know, what it does for Google 0:44:43 and the specific search market in question, 0:44:46 I think is a little bit unclear at this point. 0:44:47 But what it definitely shows, 0:44:49 well, first of all, the holding that Google 0:44:53 has monopoly power also opens the door 0:44:56 to everything else that’s gonna now do with that power. 0:44:59 So let’s say that they’re negotiating contracts 0:45:02 to get content for AI. 0:45:06 Well, now they’re negotiating contracts for AI content 0:45:09 to train their models as a monopolist. 0:45:10 In America, that, you know, 0:45:13 you’re halfway to a monopolization verdict 0:45:14 if you have that first half. 0:45:15 So now they’re gonna have to be thinking 0:45:18 about how exclusive are those contracts gonna be? 0:45:21 So even for Google, I think before we even get to remedy, 0:45:23 it’s meaningful. 0:45:25 But I agree that the biggest important thing here is that, 0:45:28 as you said, Antitrust has its mojo back. 0:45:30 And I don’t think a change in administration 0:45:31 can really change that. 0:45:33 I take a long view. 0:45:34 There was a big shift in the way 0:45:36 that we did Antitrust in the ’70s. 0:45:38 I think we’re at the beginning of that same kind of shift 0:45:40 in the other direction now. 0:45:44 – Professor, where do you stand on consumer harm? 0:45:47 I feel like that’s been one of the big arguments 0:45:49 from Big Tech that, yes, 0:45:53 they have these sort of monopolistic-esque practices, 0:45:56 but ultimately they’re delivering great product. 0:45:59 Everyone still loves buying from Amazon 0:46:03 because stuff is cheap and people, as you said, 0:46:05 would choose, if they were given the option, 0:46:08 would probably choose Google over Bing and DuckDuckGo. 0:46:11 Where do you stand on that side of the argument 0:46:13 that consumers aren’t being harmed? 0:46:15 So what’s the problem? 0:46:17 – I think consumers are being harmed. 0:46:21 And I think that’s what the opinion says. 0:46:23 The question is how innovative are these companies? 0:46:27 How much energy is Google putting into defending 0:46:31 its monopoly that it could be putting into competing? 0:46:34 What other smaller search engines, 0:46:38 like Neva is an example that came up during the trial, 0:46:39 could have been bringing something new 0:46:41 to the table that aren’t? 0:46:43 I think the most striking thing about this opinion 0:46:46 is that it actually uses this idea of innovation, 0:46:48 which the big tech companies have been using 0:46:51 as kind of trying to beat back antitrust laws, 0:46:53 saying antitrust enforcement is gonna stifle innovation. 0:46:56 And it says, “No, it’s you that’s stifling it.” 0:46:57 – You want that innovative. 0:46:59 – Well, so I mean, the idea that antitrust law 0:47:01 can be used to improve innovation, 0:47:04 I think it’s really squarely in this case. 0:47:06 – I’d love to get your view 0:47:09 on the rest of these antitrust cases. 0:47:15 There are cases out against Meta, Microsoft, Apple. 0:47:20 Which company in your view is the worst 0:47:22 when it comes to antitrust? 0:47:24 Which is the most monopolistic, 0:47:26 which has violated the most amount of laws? 0:47:28 And in your view, which one needs, 0:47:32 is most in need of some sort of enforcement or break up? 0:47:34 – That’s a hard question to answer 0:47:38 because I’m inclined to say Amazon 0:47:42 has the worst impact on markets 0:47:46 and is the most problematic, 0:47:49 but it is also, I think the least likely 0:47:51 to be found to be a monopolist. 0:47:55 And that’s because of some defects in the way 0:47:58 that antitrust law has evolved over the last 40 years 0:47:59 that need to be undone 0:48:01 and they can only be undone incrementally. 0:48:03 So in other words, 0:48:06 I think that the pending suit against Amazon is the weakest, 0:48:09 but it’s the one maybe that I’m most rooting for. 0:48:12 So I can’t predict that they’re gonna win. 0:48:17 I think the strongest of the pending suits, 0:48:19 I think the suit against Apple 0:48:22 came out a lot stronger than I thought it was going to. 0:48:23 – Around the App Store, 0:48:25 and kind of useless pricing around the App Store? 0:48:27 – No, it’s more the green bubble, blue bubble 0:48:30 is the way that people are kind of shorthanding it. 0:48:32 It’s the idea that they’re degrading 0:48:34 the quality of Android on the phone 0:48:39 so that people choose the Apple ecosystem kind of artificially 0:48:42 and they’re holding back interoperability 0:48:45 in order to basically keep Android at bay. 0:48:47 That’s a decent complaint. 0:48:49 – The thing you said that I found fascinating 0:48:53 with Amazon is probably the most in need of a break up. 0:48:56 I imagine because you believe it suppresses competition, 0:49:01 but it’s the least likely to be broken up on legal grounds, 0:49:04 which connotes a need for the change in antitrust law 0:49:08 and all cosplay and antitrust lawyer here. 0:49:11 Isn’t that, don’t we need sort of a return 0:49:15 from the Bork kind of test around consumer pricing 0:49:18 to more brand-ising around what makes markets 0:49:20 less or more competitive? 0:49:22 Isn’t it, don’t we need to move from the consumer test 0:49:25 back to just the competitive test? 0:49:30 – So I actually believe in the consumer welfare standard, 0:49:32 but I find that when I talk about it, 0:49:35 often people who also believe in the consumer welfare standard 0:49:38 describe it in a way that I don’t recognize. 0:49:41 They’ll say things like consumer welfare standard 0:49:46 demands present short-term numerical harmed consumers 0:49:48 to make for an antitrust violation. 0:49:50 I don’t believe in that. 0:49:53 I think all of these lawsuits describe long-term 0:49:55 meaningful consumer harm. 0:50:00 And to me, I think that you can get 95% 0:50:03 of what the brand-isians want through a sort of common sense 0:50:06 and reasonable understanding of what consumer welfare 0:50:07 really is. 0:50:10 So I’m kind of actually in my own work struggling 0:50:13 with whether I say I believe in the consumer welfare standard 0:50:16 because that phrase often means something 0:50:18 that I can’t endorse. 0:50:21 On the other hand, I do feel like moving away 0:50:24 from consumer protection, you lose a lot of like, 0:50:26 well, what are we doing here exactly? 0:50:27 What does competition mean? 0:50:30 So I feel ambivalent about that question. 0:50:33 – Just as we wrap up here, one observation, 0:50:36 Professor Ellensworth, you are outstanding. 0:50:37 You are outstanding. 0:50:39 Your ability to take these topics 0:50:41 and make them seem somewhat interesting, 0:50:45 which is nearly a miracle of oration and presence. 0:50:48 You are in the right seat helping shape legal minds. 0:50:52 We very much appreciate you coming on. 0:50:55 And again, really enjoyed this conversation. 0:50:55 Well done. 0:50:56 – Thank you. 0:50:57 That’s really nice to hear. 0:50:58 Thank you so much. 0:50:59 – 100%. 0:51:01 Rebecca Hall Ellensworth studies antitrust 0:51:02 and professional licensing. 0:51:05 Her work on antitrust focuses on how to adapt competition 0:51:07 policy to address competition problems 0:51:08 posed by tech platforms. 0:51:10 She teaches contracts and antitrust law 0:51:13 at Vanderbilt University and is a six-time winner 0:51:16 of the Hall Hartman Outstanding Professor Award 0:51:18 for Excellence in Teaching. 0:51:20 Clearly too qualified to be on this podcast. 0:51:22 Thank you very much for joining us, Professor Ellensworth. 0:51:23 – Thank you. 0:51:26 (upbeat music) 0:51:34 – Ed, what’d you think? 0:51:35 – Incredible. 0:51:36 I loved all of her points. 0:51:37 – Right? 0:51:41 And by the way, she won the best teaching award 0:51:43 every school graduate school has this. 0:51:45 And she’s won that six times. 0:51:47 I would imagine the faculty at the Law School of Vanderbilt 0:51:49 have between 100 and 200 profs. 0:51:51 For her to win it six years, that means she’s out. 0:51:52 She’s out. 0:51:56 That is, that’s like, that is literally like being MVP 0:52:00 or yeah, the MVP in a league six years in a row. 0:52:01 That is so hard to accomplish. 0:52:04 There was one guy who’s done that at Stern 0:52:05 who we also have asked about the motor. 0:52:08 And I’ve been nominated a couple of times 0:52:08 for that award, Ed. 0:52:10 I haven’t yet to win it. 0:52:11 – What do you think you’re doing wrong? 0:52:12 – You know, let’s be honest. 0:52:15 The reason I haven’t won it is just simple jealousy. 0:52:18 It’s just that that I got to be honest. 0:52:20 That’s an award I coveted. 0:52:22 I think I’ve been nominated once or twice. 0:52:25 You want to hear, okay, this is my life. 0:52:28 My department chair calls me and says, 0:52:29 I’ve got great news. 0:52:31 You won best teaching, the best teaching award. 0:52:32 This is like 10 years ago. 0:52:34 And he’s like, we’re so proud of you. 0:52:36 This is such great news. 0:52:37 I was so excited. 0:52:39 I called a bunch of people and he calls them back. 0:52:40 He goes, oh, we fucked up. 0:52:42 Glenn Oaken won it. 0:52:42 Sorry about that. 0:52:47 And I’m like, I just called pretty much everyone I know 0:52:49 and told them I just won best props. 0:52:51 – It’s like the Steve Harvey Miss Universe Blunder. 0:52:52 This is terrible. 0:52:53 – This happens all the time. 0:52:55 It happened to- 0:52:56 – I went to the Oscars too. 0:52:59 – Yeah, and it happened to Paul Romer, 0:53:01 who is an outstanding professor, 0:53:04 especially the dean of our university called him 0:53:05 and told me to win the Nobel Prize 0:53:07 and it ended up he hadn’t. 0:53:09 But the good news about Professor Romer 0:53:11 is he did eventually win the Nobel Prize. 0:53:13 – I have not. 0:53:14 I’m still waiting, but- 0:53:17 – Yeah, that was similar to when I got an email 0:53:19 about the Webby Awards. 0:53:21 I thought that we had won a Webby 0:53:22 or that I had won a Webby. 0:53:24 And it turns out that I had won an honorable mention 0:53:26 for the Webby Award. 0:53:29 Did not win the actual Webby, so that’s it. 0:53:31 – The Webby’s have adopted the same business model 0:53:32 as Amazon. 0:53:35 So if you write a book on and you put it on Amazon, 0:53:37 they slice it into so many categories. 0:53:40 It’ll be your number seven in professors 0:53:43 with erectile dysfunction, who have a shaved head, 0:53:45 who write books about the economy. 0:53:48 – Come to our dinner and spend $1,000 just to show up. 0:53:51 – That’s the Webby’s, is they just slice, 0:53:53 they slice the cheese a million different ways 0:53:55 to get people engaged. 0:53:57 Anyways, you’ll get there, Ed. 0:53:58 – Okay, let’s take a look at the week ahead. 0:53:59 We’ll see the consumer price 0:54:01 and producer price indices for July. 0:54:03 We’ll also see earnings from Home Depot, 0:54:05 Walmart, and Alibaba. 0:54:08 Scott, do you have a prediction for us? 0:54:10 – I would bet over the next couple of weeks 0:54:12 you’re gonna have a lot of very smart people 0:54:14 at all of the big tech firms, get in a room and say, 0:54:17 “Okay, the jig is up.” 0:54:19 And these guys clearly have Mojo now 0:54:21 are gonna allocate more resources, more lawyers, 0:54:25 and Judge Metta has given permission to other judges 0:54:28 to say, “No, you’re guilty of monopoly abuse.” 0:54:31 And I think some of them might decide 0:54:34 to prophylactically stave off the wolves at the door here 0:54:36 and break themselves up. 0:54:39 I think you’re going to the next 24 months 0:54:44 see a prophylactic spin of an AWS or a YouTube 0:54:46 because these guys are so smart. 0:54:49 And also, I generally believe that 0:54:51 it would increase shareholder value. 0:54:52 So anyways, the prediction, 0:54:55 you’re gonna see some spins that attempt 0:54:57 to immunize them against antitrust. 0:55:03 – This episode was produced by Claire Miller 0:55:04 and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. 0:55:06 Our associate producer is Allison Weiss, 0:55:07 our executive producer is Catherine Dillon. 0:55:09 Mia Silverio is our research lead 0:55:11 and Drew Burris is our technical director. 0:55:13 Thank you for listening to “Prophecy Markets” 0:55:15 from the Vox Media Podcast Network. 0:55:16 If you liked what you heard, 0:55:18 give us a follow and join us on Thursday 0:55:21 for our conversation with Ramit Sethi, 0:55:22 only on “Prophecy Markets.” 0:55:29 ♪ Lifetimes ♪ 0:55:36 ♪ You help me ♪ 0:55:41 ♪ In kind reunion ♪ 0:55:48 ♪ As the world turns ♪ 0:55:53 ♪ And the dark lights ♪ 0:55:58 ♪ In love ♪ 0:56:00 (upbeat music)
Scott and Ed open the show by discussing Airbnb, Disney, and Shopify’s latest earnings, as well as X’s lawsuit against advertisers. Then they speak with Professor Rebecca Allensworth, Associate Dean for Research at Vanderbilt University, about the Google antitrust case. She breaks down the ruling, potential remedies for the situation, and what the case means for other big tech companies who are facing similar monopoly accusations.
0:00:01 (upbeat music) 0:00:03 Support for Prop G is brought to you by Viori. 0:00:05 Are you sick and tired of traditional old workout gear? 0:00:07 Viori wants to provide you with a new perspective 0:00:08 on performance apparel. 0:00:10 Everything is designed to work out in, 0:00:13 but also look and feel great outside the gym as well. 0:00:15 Viori’s products are incredibly versatile. 0:00:17 You can wear them running, training, stretching, 0:00:18 or just lounging around. 0:00:22 Viori sent me the Elevate Core Shorts and Stratotec Tee. 0:00:24 And I like the way they feel, the form fitting. 0:00:25 I feel strong in them. 0:00:26 I feel sleek in them. 0:00:28 I feel like a jungle cat. 0:00:31 Viori is an investment in your happiness. 0:00:32 For our listeners, 0:00:34 they are offering 20% off your first purchase. 0:00:36 Get yourself some of the most comfortable 0:00:39 and versatile clothing on the planet at Viori.com/PropG. 0:00:43 That’s V-U-O-R-I.com/PropG. 0:00:49 – A special message from your family jewels 0:00:52 brought to you by Old Spice Total Body. 0:00:53 – Hey, it stinks down here. 0:00:55 Why do armpits get all of the attention? 0:00:58 We’re down here all day with no odor protection. 0:00:59 Wait, what’s that? 0:01:03 Mmm, vanilla and shea. 0:01:05 That’s Old Spice Total Body Deodorant. 0:01:08 24/7 freshness from pits to privates with daily use. 0:01:10 It’s so gentle. 0:01:11 We’ve never smelled so good. 0:01:13 Shop Old Spice Total Body Deodorant now. 0:01:22 – I’m Scott Galloway and this is No Mercy, No Malice. 0:01:24 American universities are for sale. 0:01:28 Our adversaries are buying. 0:01:32 Weapons of War, higher ed, as read by George Hahn. 0:01:42 – Growing up, our biggest fear was the bomb. 0:01:45 Dr. Strangelove came out the year I was born. 0:01:49 Not to worry though, see a bright flash just duck in cover. 0:01:52 Yep, your desk will so shield you 0:01:55 from a thermonuclear blast. 0:01:58 This week, I interviewed historian Neil Ferguson. 0:02:03 He believes we’re several years into a second Cold War. 0:02:05 Fellow geopolitical gangster Fareed Zakaria 0:02:08 calls it a cold peace. 0:02:12 Regardless, there’s definitely a cold front moving in. 0:02:17 But you wouldn’t know it looking at America. 0:02:22 Our minds are elsewhere and our guard is down. 0:02:23 Nothing focuses one’s attention 0:02:26 like the threat of imminent death. 0:02:29 The first guy to use a sling to hurl a rock at his enemy 0:02:31 was an innovator. 0:02:34 The people who forged swords and shields 0:02:38 from a copper tin alloy spawned the Bronze Age. 0:02:41 The U.S. Civil War saw the arrival 0:02:44 of hot air balloons for aerial reconnaissance. 0:02:47 The first organized Army Ambulance Corps, 0:02:48 the mass adoption of railroads, 0:02:51 the Telegraph and photojournalism. 0:02:54 The dividends from World War I 0:02:59 included stainless steel, zippers, and daylight savings. 0:03:00 Hard pass. 0:03:03 Just one madman invading Europe 0:03:04 in the middle of the last century 0:03:08 brought us flu vaccines, mass adoption of penicillin, 0:03:12 blood plasma transfusions, radar, computers, 0:03:14 and countless other products. 0:03:17 If it wasn’t for a Cold War era DARPA project 0:03:20 that laid the foundation for the commercial internet, 0:03:24 no mercy, no malice would arrive via post. 0:03:26 The 20th century was defined 0:03:30 by the symbiotic relationship between conflict and progress. 0:03:32 Conflict and progress 0:03:35 will also likely define the 21st century. 0:03:39 Veterans of Israel’s unit 8200 0:03:41 have founded scores of startups, 0:03:46 including Palo Alto Networks, Waze, and Wiz. 0:03:48 Combat in Iraq and Afghanistan 0:03:52 contributed to significant medical advances, 0:03:55 particularly the use of robotic prosthetics, 0:03:57 and deepened our understanding 0:04:00 of traumatic brain injuries. 0:04:02 Facing a more powerful enemy, 0:04:04 Ukrainians are developing long-range drones 0:04:07 that cost $30,000 a piece, 0:04:10 a fraction of the price tag for a cruise missile, 0:04:13 to strike targets hundreds of miles inside Russia. 0:04:16 On the battlefield, 0:04:19 Russia and Ukraine are locked in an innovation race 0:04:23 to produce tactical drones that start at $500. 0:04:25 Prediction? 0:04:27 By the time that war ends, 0:04:29 delivery drones will be commonplace 0:04:32 and the best will come from Ukraine. 0:04:34 In a global economy, 0:04:38 every point of connection is an axis of attack. 0:04:44 Hybrid warfare is a conflict cocktail 0:04:47 that blends conventional military operations, 0:04:49 cyber, disinformation, 0:04:51 guerrilla tactics, 0:04:53 lawfare, diplomacy, 0:04:54 regime change, 0:04:56 and economic warfare. 0:05:03 Vladimir Putin is a seventh-level hybrid warfare wizard. 0:05:07 He has covertly poured state resources 0:05:09 into high and low-tech means 0:05:13 to pit Americans and Europeans against each other. 0:05:14 Just as Big Tech realized 0:05:17 the greatest ROI was misinformation 0:05:19 from likable executives, 0:05:22 we’re proud of the progress we’ve made. 0:05:25 Propaganda continues to be 0:05:28 how nations punch above their kinetic weight class. 0:05:34 The U.S. practices hybrid warfare too. 0:05:37 Radio Free Europe wrapped propaganda in rock and roll 0:05:40 and pumped it into the Eastern Bloc. 0:05:42 We spend $500 million a year 0:05:47 so the Peace Corps can flex America’s soft power muscles. 0:05:51 U.S. and Israeli computer scientists created Stuxnet, 0:05:54 a virus that sabotaged the centrifuges 0:05:58 at Iran’s nuclear facility without firing a shot. 0:06:03 And despite spending $820 billion a year on kinetic power, 0:06:07 our primary weapon of choice is economic. 0:06:10 We lead the world in sanctions. 0:06:12 It isn’t even close. 0:06:16 TikTok, owned by ByteDance, is a Trojan horse 0:06:18 that enables the Chinese Communist Party 0:06:21 to construct the frame through which American youth 0:06:25 see the world, the U.S., and themselves. 0:06:27 It’s not about whether the CCP strives 0:06:31 to diminish U.S. standing and prosperity, they do, 0:06:34 but if we should make it easy for them. 0:06:37 The U.S. government is slowly waking up 0:06:39 to the TikTok threat. 0:06:41 When it comes to communications platforms 0:06:45 of declining influence, television and radio, 0:06:48 U.S. law restricts foreign ownership. 0:06:51 Note, Rupert Murdoch bypassed this law 0:06:53 by becoming a U.S. citizen. 0:06:57 – Fox News Media brings America together. 0:07:00 America is watching, moves, and fearless debate. 0:07:03 – Investments affecting national security, 0:07:07 energy, and infrastructure also face scrutiny. 0:07:09 It’s a dumb idea to give your adversaries 0:07:12 the ability to control your weapons systems, 0:07:15 turn off the power grid, or close your ports. 0:07:19 And it’s plain stupid to let them implant a neural jack 0:07:21 into the wet matter of our youth. 0:07:23 See above, TikTok. 0:07:29 American universities, however, are undefended. 0:07:32 They are open for business. 0:07:37 In 2019, fewer than 3% of 3700 0:07:40 higher education institutions complied with a law 0:07:44 requiring them to report foreign gifts or contracts 0:07:47 exceeding $250,000. 0:07:51 The following year, an education department report concluded, 0:07:55 U.S. institutions are technological treasure troves 0:07:58 where leading and internationally competitive fields, 0:08:01 such as nanoscience, are booming. 0:08:04 For too long, these institutions have provided 0:08:08 an unprecedented level of access to foreign governments 0:08:09 and their instrumentalities 0:08:13 in an environment lacking transparency and oversight. 0:08:17 A subsequent crackdown has called into question 0:08:22 foreign money at Harvard, Yale, MIT, and other schools. 0:08:25 But Woodward and Bernstein, 0:08:27 the Deadpool and Wolverine of journalism, 0:08:32 didn’t just follow the money, they identified its source. 0:08:37 High tariffs keep Florida oranges out of the Chinese market. 0:08:41 But contracts worth $1.8 million 0:08:43 give Chinese growers access 0:08:46 to University of Florida citrus research. 0:08:48 One Florida grower called the deal 0:08:52 an intellectual property grab. 0:08:54 The University of Michigan has around $1 million 0:08:57 in contracts from DD Global, 0:09:00 a Chinese ride-sharing company built on government money 0:09:02 that forced Uber out of their market. 0:09:07 When a Chinese equipment maker filed an IPO, 0:09:09 it told investors that its connection 0:09:13 to the University of Minnesota allowed it to, quote, 0:09:15 enjoy the latest achievements 0:09:19 of world-class R&D institutions, unquote. 0:09:22 Why worry about IP theft 0:09:26 when IP can be purchased at a deep discount on campus? 0:09:31 62 US universities receive billions from Saudi Arabia. 0:09:37 In exchange, the Saudis get access to America’s top minds, 0:09:40 but they also get a brand makeover. 0:09:42 The kingdom has made similar investments 0:09:44 in sports and startups, 0:09:48 including in Premier League football, the PGA, and WeWork. 0:09:51 This is, in my view, a market transaction 0:09:53 that’s good for both parties 0:09:56 as American firms get access to cheap capital. 0:10:00 However, there’s something uncomfortable 0:10:04 about a monarchy that doesn’t share our values, 0:10:06 having influence over the universities 0:10:09 that arguably shape the values 0:10:12 of tomorrow’s business and government leaders. 0:10:16 A former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia 0:10:19 likened the kingdom’s higher ed washing campaign 0:10:22 to US soft power. 0:10:25 True, it’s the same tactic, 0:10:28 but there’s no moral equivalency. 0:10:30 When the Saudis buy brand makeovers 0:10:32 from American universities, 0:10:34 there is also a risk that the curriculum 0:10:37 and professorships will question, 0:10:41 in the most civilized manner, our American values. 0:10:48 Since 1998, Qatar has spent billions 0:10:52 funding satellites of US universities in Doha. 0:10:55 Education City is home to campuses 0:10:59 for Georgetown School for Politics and Foreign Relations, 0:11:02 Carnegie Mellon’s Computer Science Department, 0:11:06 Virginia Commonwealth’s Fine Arts Department, 0:11:08 Cornell’s Medical School, 0:11:10 and Northwestern’s Journalism School. 0:11:14 Texas A&M has an engineering school in Qatar, 0:11:17 though it’s set to close in 2028. 0:11:18 Why? 0:11:20 School officials say they’re concerned 0:11:23 about stability in the Middle East. 0:11:25 Meanwhile, a think tank known as the Institute 0:11:29 for the Study of Global Antisemitism and Policy 0:11:33 alleged that Qatar had substantial ownership 0:11:34 of weapons development rights 0:11:36 and nuclear engineering research 0:11:41 being developed at the Texas A&M campus. 0:11:44 Texas A&M denies the allegation. 0:11:48 Nations form alliances and partnerships 0:11:52 based on shared interests, not altruism or friendship. 0:11:55 This is the reality of geopolitics 0:11:58 and our relationship with Qatar. 0:12:00 It’s got an awful human rights record 0:12:02 and ties to Hamas and Iran, 0:12:05 but it’s also home to the US Fifth Fleet. 0:12:08 It’s complicated. 0:12:11 American foreign policy needs Qatar. 0:12:14 American universities don’t. 0:12:17 Elite schools enjoy endowments worth billions 0:12:19 and charge students roughly the equivalent 0:12:23 of a luxury car for every year of tuition. 0:12:27 They might miss Qatar’s money, but they don’t need it. 0:12:31 Nearly 300 UCLA graduates gave their lives 0:12:33 during World War II. 0:12:36 My alma mater isn’t unique. 0:12:40 US colleges coast to coast mobilized for war. 0:12:44 Every school sent graduates to the front lines. 0:12:47 The University of Maryland graduated students 0:12:50 in three years to boost enlistment. 0:12:52 Columbia University changed its curriculum 0:12:54 to serve the war effort. 0:12:59 By 1942, as many as 3,000 armed forces personnel 0:13:01 were taking classes at Harvard. 0:13:04 And of course, America’s research universities 0:13:06 provided the intellectual firepower, 0:13:09 including the atomic bomb that won the war. 0:13:13 The greatest generation displayed a sense of duty 0:13:18 and patriotism that we applaud today as exemplary. 0:13:21 Their love of America helped them save America. 0:13:27 We’re less patriotic today, especially young Americans. 0:13:30 That should be a clear and present danger 0:13:33 to university administrators and faculty 0:13:36 as autocrats threaten democracy in the US 0:13:38 and around the world. 0:13:43 We armed the greatest generation with patriotism. 0:13:47 We are disarming today’s students with narcissism. 0:13:51 Universities are the tip of the spear for America, 0:13:55 shaping the next generation of leaders and innovators. 0:13:57 Our purpose is to provide an environment 0:14:00 where students can explore their passions, 0:14:01 challenge their beliefs, 0:14:04 and develop critical thinking skills. 0:14:06 Trashing America might earn students 0:14:09 and faculty clout online, 0:14:12 but in the real world, it’s stupid. 0:14:16 UC Berkeley professor Carlo Chipola 0:14:20 identified stupid as people who hurt others 0:14:22 while hurting themselves. 0:14:24 We’re on the road to stupid, 0:14:27 and it’s paved with money from our adversaries. 0:14:32 American superpower is our optimism. 0:14:35 However, the Achilles’ heel of this optimism 0:14:37 is that it’s easier to fool Americans 0:14:40 than convince them they’ve been fooled. 0:14:45 This, coupled with money-obsessed, bloated universities, 0:14:48 have turned American values of intellectual freedom 0:14:51 and free speech on itself. 0:14:55 Cancer is when the host’s own cells turn on it. 0:14:59 And America’s cancer is the coarsening of our discourse 0:15:01 and the emergence of a white, hot fashion 0:15:05 among university youth, hating America. 0:15:11 Is the $14 billion that is poured into American universities 0:15:15 an attempt to build bridges between us and other nations? 0:15:18 Or is it a long game being played by our adversaries 0:15:23 to turn our cells, youth, against us? 0:15:25 The answer is yes. 0:15:29 Is there a point where the risks outweigh the upside? 0:15:33 As someone who’s given money to universities, 0:15:35 I know that no matter how benign, 0:15:38 the donor expects something in return, 0:15:41 like influence over curriculum, 0:15:44 who receives financial aid, faculty hires. 0:15:47 Campus leaders need to ask a simple question. 0:15:52 What do foreign nations want in return for their billions? 0:15:54 And what are they getting? 0:16:05 Life is so rich. 0:16:15 [BLANK_AUDIO]
Cold War II + An Update on Global Conflicts — with Niall Ferguson
AI transcript
0:00:01 (upbeat music) 0:00:04 Support for the show comes from Into the Mix, 0:00:07 a Ben and Jerry’s podcast about joy and justice 0:00:09 produced with Vox Creative. 0:00:12 Ainez Bordeaux is a self-described hellraiser, 0:00:14 and she became an activist 0:00:16 after being caught up in the criminal legal system 0:00:19 when she couldn’t afford her bond. 0:00:20 And without a trial, 0:00:23 Ainez was sent to a St. Louis detention facility 0:00:25 known as the Workhouse, 0:00:28 notorious for its poor living conditions. 0:00:31 Here how she and other advocates fought to shut it down 0:00:33 and won on the first episode 0:00:36 of this special three-part series out now. 0:00:39 Subscribe to Into the Mix, a Ben and Jerry’s podcast. 0:00:43 – Hey, this is Scott Galloway, 0:00:45 host of the PropG podcast. 0:00:47 One of my favorite things I get to do on this show 0:00:48 is hear from our listeners 0:00:50 and answer their burning questions 0:00:51 about all sorts of things, 0:00:54 including work, life, school, you name it. 0:00:55 And this summer, we’re bringing back the hits 0:00:58 and covering some of our favorite questions 0:00:58 and takes. 0:01:00 We’re talking business, career advice, 0:01:01 and even hearing a brand new, 0:01:04 never been aired interview about parenthood. 0:01:06 So tune in to the best of office hours, 0:01:08 the special series from the PropG podcast 0:01:10 sponsored by Mint Mobile. 0:01:12 You can find it on the PropG feed 0:01:14 wherever you get your podcasts. 0:01:18 – Episode 311, 311 is the number in NYC 0:01:20 you call for non-emergency city services. 0:01:21 Choose to it. 0:01:23 I’m what’s called 911 and said, 0:01:25 “I am masturbating too much,” and the operator said, 0:01:27 “That’s not really a problem.” 0:01:29 So I put him on speaker phone and said, 0:01:32 “See mom, get off my case.” 0:01:36 Go, go, go! 0:01:38 (upbeat music) 0:01:47 – Welcome to the 311th episode of the PropG pod. 0:01:49 In today’s episode, we speak with Neil Ferguson, 0:01:51 the Millbank family senior fellow 0:01:53 at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, 0:01:55 and a senior faculty fellow 0:01:58 at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 0:01:59 at Harvard. 0:02:01 He’s also a columnist at the Free Press 0:02:02 and the author of 16 books. 0:02:04 We discussed with Neil why he believes 0:02:06 we are currently in Cold War II, 0:02:07 the state of play with the wars in Ukraine 0:02:08 and the Middle East, 0:02:10 and who he thinks is likely to prevail 0:02:12 in the upcoming presidential election. 0:02:14 I’m a huge fan of Neil. 0:02:17 I love, you know, Neil’s a real deal. 0:02:19 Neil writes these incredibly intense, 0:02:22 long, really well researched books. 0:02:25 He loves writing and then he’s used his platform 0:02:27 as kind of a world-class historian 0:02:29 to launch a consulting business called Green Mantle 0:02:31 that is really powerful, very similar, 0:02:34 kind of along the same veins as the Eurasia Group 0:02:35 with Ian Bremmer. 0:02:37 But anyways, I’m a huge fan of Neil. 0:02:38 He’s a great thinker. 0:02:41 We have almost nothing in common politically. 0:02:42 His views are much different than mine, 0:02:45 but he views informed mine 0:02:47 because he’s such a clear blue flame thinker. 0:02:49 And I love how he couches everything 0:02:50 in a historical reference. 0:02:52 Okay, before we get to that, 0:02:53 what’s happening? 0:02:54 What’s happening? 0:02:55 Where’s the dog barking? 0:02:57 Who let the dogs out? 0:02:58 Where’s he barking? 0:03:00 I am still in Aspen, 0:03:02 but I’m heading to Nantucket this weekend 0:03:04 on the Privilege White douchebag tour. 0:03:05 That’s right. 0:03:07 Why am I headed to Nantucket? 0:03:09 So let’s talk a little bit about the two. 0:03:10 I love Aspen. 0:03:11 This is where I’m definitely gonna hang out 0:03:13 about a home here. 0:03:15 And then on Tucket, I did not want to like. 0:03:17 Why did I not want to like Nantucket? 0:03:19 I think of myself as being sort of Eurofabulous. 0:03:20 I have the impression of myself 0:03:23 that I’m a little cool, a little edgy. 0:03:24 None of those things. 0:03:26 And then Nantucket is very Americana. 0:03:31 Like the pink shorts, the kind of cobblestone streets. 0:03:32 It’s actually a really interesting town. 0:03:34 It’s sort of where venture capital originated. 0:03:37 The captain would raise money, pull together a team 0:03:40 and then go hunting for whales and then come back. 0:03:42 And if they got a bunch of whales and make a bunch of money 0:03:44 and it is spectacularly beautiful. 0:03:47 And I like places where my boys can just go free 0:03:49 and not get into too much trouble. 0:03:51 My parents were worried about me getting in too much trouble. 0:03:53 I’m worried my boys are gonna get into too little. 0:03:55 So I like pushing them out and shoving them out 0:03:57 and hoping that they find some fun. 0:03:59 But I absolutely love it there. 0:04:02 And it gives me a chance to come back to New York and work. 0:04:04 What did I vacation when I was younger? 0:04:07 First vacation I ever took, my mom took me to Niagara Falls. 0:04:08 No joke. 0:04:12 We went to, we saw the Canadian side of the waterfall, 0:04:13 which is much more impressive. 0:04:15 And then we went to this, 0:04:19 we went to the kind of this camp where we stayed in a cabin 0:04:23 with her other single mother friend and their daughter 0:04:24 or her daughter Annette. 0:04:27 And we went to kind of this little camp where, 0:04:29 the big highlight was a tire swing. 0:04:32 So my vacationing is a much different complexion now. 0:04:33 But it was a ton of fun 0:04:36 when you’re a kid being outdoors, having a lot of fun. 0:04:37 I don’t know how I got here. 0:04:39 Should we get back to the podcast? 0:04:41 Okay, so moving on. 0:04:44 Google got hit with a massive antitrust hammer. 0:04:47 Boom, said the FTC and the DOJ. 0:04:52 Oh my God, couldn’t happen to a nicer group of people. 0:04:54 What do you know, a federal judge ruled on Monday 0:04:56 that Google is an illegal monopoly 0:04:58 when it comes to its search business. 0:05:01 The ruling claims that Google has not achieved its stronghold 0:05:04 on search just by happenstance. 0:05:05 It’s hard, highly skilled engineers 0:05:08 innovated consistently and made shrewd business decisions. 0:05:10 Okay, I’m not sure that makes their case. 0:05:13 But anyways, what they are, I believe guilty of 0:05:15 is something called monopoly maintenance. 0:05:16 What do we mean by that? 0:05:18 And that is search is really unusual 0:05:21 in the sense that it ages in reverse. 0:05:22 What do I mean by that? 0:05:24 The companies that have any shot 0:05:25 have become a trillion dollar company. 0:05:28 And I think this is something entrepreneurs should take note 0:05:29 is they age in reverse. 0:05:31 It’s what I call the Benjamin Button effect. 0:05:34 And I wrote about this in my New York Times bestseller 0:05:35 The Four by Scott Galloway, 0:05:36 which by the way has been an option 0:05:37 for an original scripted drama. 0:05:38 We’ll see how that goes. 0:05:40 I’m going to LA this week to pitch a bunch of the platforms. 0:05:42 Literally the biggest story that’s never been told 0:05:44 or not told yet is about big tech. 0:05:46 And anyways, we’ll see. 0:05:49 But effectively the companies that in fact 0:05:52 run to a trillion dollars defy biology. 0:05:55 Benjamin Button, a short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald 0:05:56 about a father whose heart is broken 0:05:58 ’cause he loses his son in World War I 0:06:00 and thinks that if he builds a clock 0:06:01 that perfectly goes in reverse 0:06:03 and maybe he can reverse time and bring back his son. 0:06:05 It’s actually a really lovely story 0:06:08 and was made into a wonderful movie 0:06:10 starring Brad Pitt and Kate Blanchett 0:06:12 who are just really easy on the eyes. 0:06:13 Oh my God. 0:06:15 Anyways, where was I? 0:06:17 Oh, Benjamin Button aging in reverse. 0:06:20 That is what trillion dollar companies do. 0:06:21 They age in reverse. 0:06:22 They defy biology. 0:06:25 What happens when you drive a car off the lot? 0:06:27 It loses about 30% of its value. 0:06:28 Literally when you drive off the lot, 0:06:30 when you twist the cap off of toothpaste, 0:06:32 it loses 100% of its value. 0:06:34 You just can’t, it’s not resaleable. 0:06:35 That is the pace of most companies 0:06:37 or that’s the cadence in most products 0:06:38 is they age in reverse. 0:06:39 I’m sitting here looking at all this equipment, 0:06:43 a ring light that makes me look like Joe Biden in 10 years. 0:06:45 Jesus Christ, look how fucking ugly I am. 0:06:49 Anyway, all of this shit ages like everything. 0:06:51 Most business mimics biology, 0:06:53 but the company is the best to move towards a trillion, 0:06:56 defy biology and they age in reverse, 0:06:58 mostly through network effects or agility 0:07:00 and search is one of those. 0:07:02 And that is every time someone searches, 0:07:04 the next search gets better 0:07:06 because the links you pick and form, 0:07:09 which links are the best links to present higher 0:07:12 in the query results than the search before it. 0:07:13 So it ages in reverse. 0:07:18 So size matters and creates a better search product, 0:07:21 such that it makes sense for Google or Alphabet 0:07:23 to go and pay Apple $20 billion 0:07:26 to become the default search engine. 0:07:28 And what happens, that gets some additional traffic, 0:07:29 gives them more pricing power 0:07:31 and slowly but surely they run away with it. 0:07:34 And they have these deals with a variety 0:07:36 of different companies. 0:07:37 And essentially they become, 0:07:39 their position has become unassailable. 0:07:41 Now, was that the smart thing to do? 0:07:44 Yeah, but as it create monopoly power and monopoly abuse 0:07:47 where they charge greater rents on advertisers, 0:07:49 basically every other company in the world. 0:07:50 Yes, as a matter of fact, 0:07:53 since the Airbnb, which is my largest position, 0:07:56 the reason why Airbnb is so powerful for shareholders 0:07:58 is it’s one of the few companies that’s been able 0:08:01 to exit the stranglehold that is Google or Meta. 0:08:01 What do I mean by that? 0:08:04 These are giant toll booths add an Amazon 0:08:05 to basically every e-commerce, 0:08:07 every information age company, 0:08:09 every institution or organization 0:08:11 that wants to acquire customers online. 0:08:13 See above everybody has to go and pay a toll 0:08:14 through one of these three organizations 0:08:17 and slowly but surely they have increased the rents 0:08:19 on the rest of the corporate world. 0:08:21 So what would be the biggest tax cut in history? 0:08:23 The biggest tax cut in history 0:08:25 is if you made these markets more competitive 0:08:26 and broke them up. 0:08:28 And effectively that’s what they’re saying here 0:08:30 is that the monopoly rents they are charging 0:08:32 because everybody has to use Google 0:08:34 is gotten to the point where it is stifling competition. 0:08:37 And because they have access to cheaper and cheaper capital 0:08:38 because of the monopoly position, 0:08:41 they can become go out and basically buy their position 0:08:44 as the default search engine across the largest platforms 0:08:46 and effectively run away with it. 0:08:49 And this is what you refer to as monopoly maintenance. 0:08:51 One of the important points the ruling makes 0:08:52 is that in fact that Google charges 0:08:55 a supra competitive prices for general search ads 0:08:58 meaning that they’re getting unfair rents. 0:08:59 I think there’s tremendous innovation 0:09:02 to be unlocked in search once they in fact 0:09:03 break these companies up. 0:09:05 As a matter of fact, you kind of could argue 0:09:08 that chatGPT is a function of the innovators dilemma 0:09:12 where this $170 billion business called search, right? 0:09:13 It’s actually $175 billion, 0:09:16 had no vested interest in innovating. 0:09:19 And as a result chatGPT or AI came in and said 0:09:22 we’re not gonna give you every answer in 0.0055 seconds. 0:09:24 We’re not gonna give you 1,100 results. 0:09:25 We’re gonna give you one 0:09:26 and we’re gonna try and do our best 0:09:27 to give you the best answer. 0:09:28 But still this is a good decision. 0:09:32 This is absolutely evidence of what I think 0:09:34 is the smartest thing to oxygenate the economy 0:09:37 and the complexion of the Biden-Harris administration 0:09:38 around making markets more competitive 0:09:39 and breaking up big tech. 0:09:42 So I think this is good for the ecosystem, 0:09:44 good for the planet, good for consumers. 0:09:46 And also I believe it’s good for Alphabet. 0:09:48 If you’re an Alphabet shareholder, 0:09:50 I think you want YouTube spawn. 0:09:52 I don’t think you want them cooperating 0:09:54 and coordinating with Google search. 0:09:57 I think YouTube on its own probably trades, 0:09:58 would trade at a greater multiple 0:09:59 ’cause it is the premier. 0:10:01 Everyone talks about Netflix, TikTok. 0:10:05 I actually think arguably the most dominant video search 0:10:08 and video platform amongst people under the age of 30 0:10:10 is probably YouTube. 0:10:13 And I just think it’s fantastic 0:10:16 that Lena Khan and Jonathan Cantor 0:10:18 have taken a more aggressive approach to this. 0:10:19 What will be the remedy? 0:10:21 That’ll be really interesting. 0:10:23 Could they break them up? 0:10:25 Could, I don’t think they’ll do a fine 0:10:27 ’cause that doesn’t mean anything for these companies. 0:10:30 Will they maybe ask Apple or demand 0:10:32 that those players present multiple options 0:10:34 and then you get to pick which search engine you want? 0:10:36 I don’t know, we’re gonna see, it’s gonna be really, 0:10:37 the remedy part of this case 0:10:38 is gonna be super interesting. 0:10:40 We’ve already seen TikTok playing an interesting role 0:10:43 in search, particularly for Gen Z. 0:10:46 Axios reported that 21% of 18 to 24 year olds 0:10:48 start their search journey with TikTok. 0:10:52 Oh my God, 21% search share on TikTok. 0:10:53 Who would have thought that? 0:10:54 Lucky it’s not controlled by an adversary 0:10:58 that wants to deposition America 0:10:59 and train our youth to hate America. 0:11:01 But anyways, Amazon, Instagram, Snap, 0:11:04 and of course, ChatGPT have also played a big part 0:11:06 in where and what people search for. 0:11:09 Google shares closed down 4 1/2% on Monday 0:11:10 because of the ruling analysts speculate 0:11:12 that Apple would face a blow 0:11:14 if one of the court remedies prevents Google from paying 0:11:16 to be the default search engine. 0:11:19 You gotta imagine that $20 billion a year payment, 0:11:21 about 19.9 of it hits the bottom line 0:11:24 and then their multiple on profits, 0:11:26 I think is about 30 or 33. 0:11:28 So you’re looking at about a $600 billion 0:11:31 hit to their share price if all of a sudden it were to, 0:11:34 if shareholders were to decide, okay, 0:11:37 they’re gonna have their EBITDA reduced by 20% here. 0:11:39 I don’t know if it’s gonna have a big impact on Apple 0:11:40 ’cause I think what Apple could probably do 0:11:44 is get that same $20 billion, can they get $20 billion? 0:11:45 I don’t know, they control custody 0:11:49 to the billion wealthiest people in the world called iOS users. 0:11:51 And if it’s not Google, it’s gonna be someone else 0:11:52 that they’ll backfill and say, 0:11:57 do you wanna be the premier or the default search query AI here? 0:11:59 I think they’re still in a pretty good position. 0:12:02 Alphabet also, I don’t think, 0:12:04 I don’t think their shareholders are gonna get hurt 0:12:05 ’cause I think a breakup would actually be good 0:12:08 for the company, but this definitely sends, 0:12:11 I think a healthy flare across the bow of these companies 0:12:14 which have become way too powerful. 0:12:15 What’s some evidence down that way? 0:12:17 If you got your flight canceled a few Fridays ago, 0:12:19 it’s because of the concentration in the tech industry 0:12:21 where basically entire airlines were shut down 0:12:24 because one company CrowdStrike had to be integrated 0:12:28 into the dominant operating system, which is Microsoft. 0:12:29 And effectively they found they were so reliant. 0:12:31 What was really interesting is the COA Bastion 0:12:34 came out and announced a half a billion dollar lawsuit 0:12:36 against CrowdStrike and Microsoft, 0:12:38 but he didn’t say we’re switching vendors 0:12:39 or switching technology, why? 0:12:42 ‘Cause he can’t because see above monopoly power. 0:12:45 The best thing we could do to oxygenate the economy 0:12:47 would be one, to restore Sino-US relations, 0:12:51 the first and second largest economy kissing and making up 0:12:53 would bring down the price of everything globally. 0:12:55 They got manufacturing and supply chain down, 0:12:58 we got IV innovation and consumer demand. 0:12:59 Come on, let’s kiss and make up. 0:13:01 Anyways, anyways, that would be the number one tax cut. 0:13:04 The number two tax cut would be the break up of big tech 0:13:07 who are every day increasing their rents 0:13:09 on essentially every business in the world. 0:13:13 We’ll be right back for our conversation with Neil Ferguson. 0:13:19 – Fox Creative. 0:13:23 – This is advertiser content from Zell. 0:13:25 – The recruiter said all he needed to do 0:13:28 was send $500 to cover mandatory safety training 0:13:31 and the job was mine. 0:13:32 – In a world where financial crimes 0:13:34 are more and more sophisticated, 0:13:37 there’s a team that’s got your back. 0:13:38 Yee-haw! 0:13:42 – Come in, Safe Squad, we got a 10-3. 0:13:45 – Copy that dispatch, we’re on it. 0:13:47 Hop in, Skip, we got a phony recruiter. 0:13:51 – Safe Squad. 0:13:54 – The crime drama everyone is talking about. 0:13:56 – I know it’s only my first day, 0:13:59 but that sounds like a pretty cut-and-dry job scam. 0:14:00 – Strap in, rookie. 0:14:02 – These days criminals can even make it look like 0:14:06 it’s your bank calm, but that’s where we come in. 0:14:07 – My what? 0:14:10 It’s my savings account, compromised. 0:14:12 No, I won’t hold. 0:14:16 No, I didn’t authorize a $12,000 withdrawal. 0:14:18 That’s my life savings. 0:14:19 – Why don’t you come with me? 0:14:22 I’ll show you how to report to the FTC. 0:14:23 – What payment platform to choose? 0:14:25 Let’s contact them too. 0:14:29 – Don’t miss the TV event of the season, Safe Squad. 0:14:30 – Hey Ace. 0:14:31 – Yeah, kid? 0:14:32 – You’re right. 0:14:35 That was one hell of a first day. 0:14:37 – Learn how you can spot the signs of a scam 0:14:39 so you don’t have to call the Safe Squad 0:14:44 by visiting www.vox.com/SafeSquadHQ. 0:14:47 – Remember, never send money online 0:14:50 to people you don’t already know and trust. 0:14:53 (upbeat music) 0:14:54 Support for the show comes from Fetch. 0:14:56 I love doing ads for Fetch. 0:14:58 I am a huge dog person, I think you know this, 0:15:00 both Leia and Gangster, my Great Dane, 0:15:02 and my Puerto Rican rescue ham. 0:15:04 We think he’s a dox, and by the way, 0:15:06 Leia is big and scary-looking. 0:15:09 You can go up and literally poke Leia in the eye 0:15:12 or take her food from her, and she’s not gonna do anything, 0:15:15 except maybe rear up her hind quarters against you, 0:15:17 whereas the little one will snap your finger off, 0:15:18 the little cute one. 0:15:20 Anyways, pet parents know better than anyone 0:15:22 how much joy and whimsy an animal can bring to a family, 0:15:24 but they also know that it’s only a matter of time 0:15:26 before the unexpected happens. 0:15:29 And the unexpected is also unfortunately usually expensive, 0:15:31 so unless you happen to have thousands of dollars 0:15:34 lying around to drop at the vet, you might wanna try Fetch. 0:15:36 Fetch is the most comprehensive pet insurance 0:15:38 covering what other providers charge extra for 0:15:39 or don’t cover at all. 0:15:43 Fetch even covers acupuncture, get that, acupuncture for dogs. 0:15:46 Fetch covers up to 90% of unexpected vet bills, 0:15:48 and with Fetch, you can use any vet in the U.S. or Canada. 0:15:52 Fetch covers more, more protection, more savings, more love. 0:15:54 With Fetch, more is more. 0:15:57 Get your free quote today at fetchpet.com/propg. 0:16:02 That’s fetchpet.com/propg, fetchpet.com/propg. 0:16:08 – Support for the show comes from Into the Mix, 0:16:11 a Ben and Jerry’s podcast about joy and justice 0:16:13 produced with Vox Creative. 0:16:16 Would you have $25,000 to post bail? 0:16:19 That’s how much Inez Bordeaux had to pay 0:16:21 when she was arrested in 2016. 0:16:23 And since she couldn’t afford it, 0:16:24 she was sent to the workhouse, 0:16:27 a pre-trial detention center in St. Louis. 0:16:30 Inez and the other detainees weren’t locked up 0:16:32 because they’d been convicted, 0:16:35 but because they couldn’t afford their bail. 0:16:38 – Experiencing what I experienced in watching 0:16:40 other women go through it 0:16:45 and know that there were thousands before us 0:16:47 and there were thousands after us 0:16:52 who had experienced those same things, 0:16:54 that’s where I was radicalized. 0:16:56 – She spent a month at the workhouse 0:16:58 and witnessed abject conditions, 0:17:00 extreme heat and cold, 0:17:03 mold and pest infestations and poor medical care. 0:17:05 Eventually her charge was vacated, 0:17:09 but the experience changed her. 0:17:11 – We’re starting a campaign to close the workhouse, 0:17:12 are you interested? 0:17:15 And I was like, hell yeah, hell yeah, I’m interested. 0:17:17 – Hear how she and other advocates fought 0:17:19 to shut it down and won. 0:17:22 On the first episode of this special three-part series 0:17:24 out now, hosted by Ashley Seaford, 0:17:28 subscribe to Into the Mix, a Ben and Jerry’s podcast. 0:17:35 (upbeat music) 0:17:38 (upbeat music) 0:17:44 – Welcome back, here’s our conversation with Neil Ferguson, 0:17:46 the Millbank Family Senior Fellow 0:17:48 at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University 0:17:50 and a Senior Faculty Fellow at the Belford Center 0:17:53 for Science and International Affairs at Harvard. 0:17:55 – Neil Ferguson, where does this podcast find you? 0:17:58 – I cannot disclose my location 0:18:01 for reasons of national security, 0:18:04 but I’ll say New England. 0:18:05 – New England, wow, very mysterious. 0:18:08 So first off, let’s bust right into it. 0:18:10 Starting with something topical, 0:18:13 the Wall Street Journal reporter, Evan Gershkovich, 0:18:15 has been freed as part of what the White House 0:18:18 National Security Advisor described as a historic exchange, 0:18:20 something not seen since the Cold War. 0:18:22 Neil, what do you make of this? 0:18:24 – Well, I’ve been saying for the last six years 0:18:29 that we’re in Cold War II, and there you go. 0:18:33 It’s a very Cold War thing to do prisoner exchanges 0:18:35 with the other side. 0:18:39 And so for me, it’s fresh evidence 0:18:44 if fresh evidence were needed that we’re in a new Cold War 0:18:49 and Russia, as in the first Cold War, is on the other side. 0:18:53 So of course, it’s China, so is Iran, so is North Korea. 0:18:57 But this is a good day because obviously, 0:19:00 Evan’s release was something that everybody 0:19:04 who has any connection with journalism was praying for. 0:19:07 And although, of course, 0:19:12 we’ve had to let some Russian spies go to get him out, 0:19:17 I’m inclined to think that that is a price worth paying. 0:19:23 – Let me ask you that when Brittany Griner was exchanged 0:19:28 for this merchant of death, I think his name was Victor Boot, 0:19:30 I was worried we were setting up a series of incentives 0:19:33 that encouraged Russia and other kind of, 0:19:36 for lack of a better term, access of evil nations 0:19:39 to take more and more people prisoner 0:19:42 on unfounded charges, do you have any, 0:19:45 and we don’t know what they’re trading for here, 0:19:47 but do you think this sets up poor incentives 0:19:51 that will only result in more Americans being incarcerated? 0:19:52 – It’s possible. 0:19:58 On the other hand, they’re not gonna stop spying 0:20:02 and we’re not gonna stop trying to catch their spies. 0:20:07 If the lesson of the Cold War is relevant here, 0:20:12 that didn’t produce an escalating cycle of prisoner taking. 0:20:16 And so I wouldn’t expect that to happen. 0:20:21 In this case, mainly because there are bigger pieces 0:20:25 on the chessboard than spies and journalists. 0:20:29 And in the end, the Cold War is like a massive game of chess 0:20:34 and these are pawns, or if there were pieces smaller 0:20:37 than pawns, they would be those. 0:20:41 And the Russians have much bigger pieces 0:20:44 that they want to move and bigger pieces of ours 0:20:47 that they want to take, like, say, Ukraine. 0:20:51 And in that sense, there’s no obvious rationale 0:20:56 in their accumulating more ill will 0:20:58 by arresting more journalists. 0:20:59 And I’d be surprised if it happened 0:21:02 on a larger scale in the coming years. 0:21:04 – So let’s use that as a jumping out point, 0:21:06 talking about the war on Ukraine. 0:21:08 Give us what you think the state of play is there, 0:21:11 what you think a likely outcome is 0:21:13 and how you would approach it 0:21:14 or what advice you would have 0:21:17 for Western policymakers as it relates to Ukraine? 0:21:20 – Well, there are two, perhaps more than two, 0:21:23 but two plausible futures 0:21:29 depending on who wins the election on November 5th. 0:21:35 In the scenario in which Kamala Harris wins, 0:21:37 there’ll be a continuity of the policy 0:21:40 that has got us to where we are. 0:21:45 And that policy has been outwardly to support Ukraine 0:21:51 and its maximum war aims by saying, 0:21:55 Ukraine sets the war aims privately 0:21:59 to continue the war at such a level 0:22:02 of support that Ukraine doesn’t lose, 0:22:05 but not at such a level that it can win. 0:22:10 That policy, I imagine, would continue 0:22:17 into the next four years if Harris wins 0:22:20 because I wouldn’t expect a big change 0:22:23 to the national security strategy or team. 0:22:24 There’d be some changes, 0:22:26 but I don’t think there would be a huge shift. 0:22:31 And the danger with that policy became obvious last year 0:22:33 and earlier this year. 0:22:38 If the US stops its support for Ukraine, 0:22:42 then Ukraine loses for six months. 0:22:45 The House of Representatives cut off financial military aid 0:22:48 from the US to Ukraine. 0:22:51 The Europeans couldn’t compensate for the shortfall 0:22:53 and Ukraine started to lose the war 0:22:57 because it simply cannot maintain its defenses 0:23:01 along this now very long front without American support. 0:23:05 And so the risk of a protracted war without a conclusion 0:23:09 is that at some point we lose interest 0:23:11 or politics leads us to lose interest. 0:23:13 And then I think Ukraine loses the war. 0:23:16 I was always against prolonging the war. 0:23:21 I said in late 2022 when it was going well for Ukraine 0:23:24 that it would have been ideal to lock in 0:23:28 some kind of peace negotiation then 0:23:31 when Ukraine’s fortunes were at their height. 0:23:34 Because if it dragged on, 0:23:37 the sheer superiority of Russian resources 0:23:39 would be bound to tell. 0:23:43 So that’s one future and it’s not one that I 0:23:46 or indeed my Ukrainian friends find very appetizing, 0:23:50 especially because in this future, 0:23:54 you’d expect a President Harris to be as easily intimidated 0:23:58 by threats of nuclear escalation as President Biden has been. 0:24:00 From a very early stage in the war, 0:24:04 the Russians realized that if they said nuclear weapons, 0:24:07 the Biden administration would kind of pull back. 0:24:09 And this has put a lid on the support 0:24:12 that the Biden administration has given Ukraine. 0:24:16 It’s, I think, the best explanation for why support 0:24:19 has been enough not to lose but not enough to win. 0:24:22 So now let’s imagine scenario two 0:24:24 in which Donald Trump is reelected 0:24:26 after a four year intermission. 0:24:27 What would that be like? 0:24:30 Many people wrongly assume that Trump 0:24:33 would just throw Zelensky, President Zelensky of Ukraine 0:24:36 under the nearest available bus 0:24:39 and do a deal with Vladimir Putin, 0:24:41 the Russian president that would be hugely favorable 0:24:42 for Russia. 0:24:44 That is not, I think, what would happen. 0:24:48 And the reason I say that is that one national security 0:24:52 spokesman after another on the Republican side 0:24:55 has come out against that kind of isolationist, 0:24:57 the hell with Ukraine stance, 0:24:59 in recent months. 0:25:01 If you look closely at what Trump says, 0:25:04 if you look closely at what JD Van said 0:25:06 to the New York Times last week, 0:25:09 you’ll see that the Trump plan is radically different. 0:25:14 The Trump plan is to put huge pressure on Russia, 0:25:18 economic and military, make the sanctions bite more, 0:25:22 make the weapons available to Ukraine more powerful 0:25:25 in order to force Putin to the negotiating table. 0:25:29 And then you’re gonna try and rerun the Korean piece 0:25:32 of 1953, where you don’t actually ever get 0:25:33 to a peace agreement, 0:25:36 but you have an armistice of the fighting stops. 0:25:40 And then this nasty border just kind of stabilizes 0:25:41 roughly where it is. 0:25:44 I think that’s the very different future 0:25:46 that we’ll get if Trump wins. 0:25:50 – That sounds like in some sort of an endorsement 0:25:53 of the Trump plan as it relates to Ukraine. 0:25:55 And what I would say is, and I don’t know this 0:25:57 as well as I’m trying as closely, 0:26:01 but I remember Trump saying I’d have this done in a day. 0:26:06 And my sense is that Putin and his supporters 0:26:09 are bigger fans or are hoping for a Trump administration, 0:26:12 but you think that actually a Trump administration 0:26:15 would in fact go harder at Russia in the short term 0:26:17 trying to force a deal. 0:26:20 – Well, that’s, I think, exactly what Mike Pompeo said 0:26:23 in the Wall Street Journal earlier this week. 0:26:27 He said the sanctions have not been enforced 0:26:29 nearly hard enough. 0:26:32 We need to go after the Russian banks. 0:26:35 We need to really make the Russian economy hurt. 0:26:38 We need to confiscate the reserves 0:26:41 and make them available to Ukraine as reparations. 0:26:45 And we need to step up the firepower that we give Ukraine 0:26:49 in order to force a negotiation upon the Russians. 0:26:53 And I’m not endorsing Donald Trump when I say 0:26:56 that that makes more sense to me as a plan 0:27:00 than carrying on with what we’re currently doing, 0:27:02 which I think will lead to Ukraine’s defeat. 0:27:07 The longer this lasts and the more we drip feed weapons 0:27:10 to Ukraine, the more likely it is 0:27:13 that ultimately Russia’s superior manpower, 0:27:15 superior raw materials, superior resources 0:27:18 together lead to victory. 0:27:21 And we really have to avoid a Russian victory. 0:27:24 So I think it makes sense to try and get to an armistice. 0:27:27 And what’s interesting is that if you talk to people 0:27:32 close to Zelensky, they will privately say, 0:27:37 we kind of prefer this to what we’re getting from Biden, 0:27:40 which is this drip feeding of support 0:27:43 and this constant language of de-escalation. 0:27:45 The problem about the word de-escalation, 0:27:48 which the Biden administration loves as a word, 0:27:51 is that in practice, it means the opposite of deterrence. 0:27:54 And you need to have some deterrence. 0:27:57 You have to make it clear to Russia 0:27:59 that it will cost them to carry on this war 0:28:01 if you’re gonna have any kind of peace negotiation. 0:28:03 Of course, it doesn’t get done in a day. 0:28:05 These things never get done in a day. 0:28:07 It’ll take six months, 12 months. 0:28:10 And I don’t think even at the end of 12 months, 0:28:12 there’ll be agreement on everything. 0:28:16 But if you can get an armistice, a ceasefire even, 0:28:19 that usually helps Ukraine even at the cost 0:28:23 of accepting for who knows how long 0:28:25 that the Russians control the part of their territory 0:28:27 and that the frontier between them and the bad guys 0:28:29 would be a very dangerous place 0:28:31 for quite a long time to come. 0:28:34 – So just for the purpose of the discussion, some pushback, 0:28:37 I see that Biden and Harris have distinctive 0:28:40 some dysfunction in Congress that as you said, 0:28:42 delayed funding for the war for six months, 0:28:45 which was, I think, I would describe more of a lack 0:28:46 of leadership on the part of Congress, 0:28:48 not necessarily Biden and Harris. 0:28:51 And that this has been, in my view, 0:28:54 I think of the president as the CEO responsible 0:28:56 for allocating resources to their greatest return. 0:28:59 I would argue this return has been one 0:29:01 of the greatest investments the West has ever made. 0:29:04 We’ve taken out what a third of Russia’s kinetic power 0:29:07 defanged the reputation of the supposedly ferocious army 0:29:12 given she pause before he tries to invade Taiwan 0:29:14 without ever even putting a boot on the ground, 0:29:15 an American boot on the ground, 0:29:18 NATO is out of its brain coma, Europe is finally unified. 0:29:20 And I don’t want to in any way diminish the incredible loss 0:29:22 of human life on both sides. 0:29:26 And then on the other side, this notion that 0:29:28 the Trump administration would put forward more pressure. 0:29:31 When I hear J.D. Vance consistently saying 0:29:33 he’s indifferent and doesn’t care about Ukraine, 0:29:38 you don’t worry that it emboldens Putin to be less apt 0:29:41 or inclined to accept some sort of deal or armistice here. 0:29:42 I see the opposite. 0:29:45 I see this emboldening Russia not getting them 0:29:46 to the negotiation table. 0:29:51 – The problem with your first point is this business strategy 0:29:55 as you describe it, doesn’t look good. 0:29:59 If after three years, your enterprise goes bust. 0:30:02 If after three years– 0:30:04 – You mean Ukraine loses, right? 0:30:06 – You mean if Ukraine were just a lose, got it. 0:30:09 – And that’s a highly likely scenario. 0:30:13 It’s not a surprise that the United States 0:30:17 embarks on a war and then after two years finds 0:30:20 that domestic support for it ebbs away. 0:30:21 That’s not new. 0:30:25 Domestic support for aid to multiple countries 0:30:28 in Cold War I faded. 0:30:30 And so to say that it’s all the force 0:30:33 of the House of Representatives is to slightly miss the point. 0:30:36 It was obvious from the outset that there would be 0:30:41 a finite amount of domestic patients in channeling resources 0:30:44 to a war in Eastern Europe that really ought to be 0:30:47 much more a concern of Europeans than Americans. 0:30:51 I think the risk that they ran 0:30:53 when they said to themselves, which they did, 0:30:56 let’s keep this going ’cause we’re really destroying 0:30:57 Russia’s military capability. 0:31:01 The risk that they ran was that in the end, 0:31:04 if Russia won, albeit at a high cost, 0:31:07 then Putin would be the winner. 0:31:09 So I think this was a very poor business strategy 0:31:11 and I said so at the time. 0:31:12 It would have been much smarter to try 0:31:15 and push for a peace or at least an armistice 0:31:18 when the war was going really badly for the Russians, 0:31:20 which it was in late 2022. 0:31:21 When they were driven back from Kharkiv, 0:31:22 they nearly lost a large amount 0:31:25 of their military outside Hurston. 0:31:27 That was a moment when I think 0:31:30 you could have attempted a negotiation 0:31:33 and we didn’t do that ’cause we thought we’re so clever. 0:31:35 We’re gonna fight the last Ukrainian 0:31:38 and exhaust Russia’s military, point one. 0:31:40 Point two, Vance has changed his tone 0:31:43 because it’s been explained to him 0:31:45 and to Speaker Mike Johnson 0:31:47 and to all the people in the House. 0:31:50 This is what happens if Ukraine loses 0:31:52 and what’s been fascinating to me, Scott, 0:31:56 over the last six months or so has been to see 0:31:59 that the isolationist faction 0:32:01 within the Republican Party, 0:32:03 which is quite well represented 0:32:04 in the House of Representatives, 0:32:09 has been routed and the reason that it’s been routed 0:32:12 is that they had it explained to them 0:32:14 in, I presume, intelligence briefings. 0:32:17 What would happen if Ukraine lost? 0:32:19 And then they realized 0:32:21 that not only would Putin be laughing, 0:32:23 but so would Xi Jinping. 0:32:25 And what’s interesting in this past six months 0:32:28 is that the argument that I made last year 0:32:32 is now almost conventional wisdom amongst Republicans, 0:32:33 namely that there is an axis 0:32:36 of China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, 0:32:39 that it is engaged in a Cold War 0:32:42 against the United States and its allies. 0:32:44 And a victory for Russia and Ukraine 0:32:45 is a victory for Xi Jinping, 0:32:48 as surely as it’s a victory for Vladimir Putin. 0:32:51 Republicans have had that explained to them. 0:32:53 They’ve had it drummed into their heads 0:32:55 that if you let Russia win, 0:32:59 it’s a very bad outcome for the US and its allies 0:33:02 and a very good outcome for China and its allies. 0:33:04 So I think there’s been a big shift. 0:33:05 Not everybody’s noticed this, 0:33:06 but I think it’s very important 0:33:09 ’cause it means that Putin, 0:33:11 who is certainly paying attention, 0:33:13 is realizing that a Trump administration 0:33:17 won’t simply hand in Ukraine in a phone call. 0:33:20 I think that scenario was never very likely 0:33:22 and it’s certainly not gonna happen there. 0:33:25 – So that’s on the war in the Middle East? 0:33:29 – Well, we’re speaking on what could be the eve 0:33:32 of a new war, 0:33:35 the one that is brewing between Israel and Hezbollah. 0:33:39 Probability that that war happens this August 0:33:44 is, I think, high now after the events of recent days. 0:33:48 It’s pretty clear that Benjamin Netanyahu 0:33:50 came back from Washington 0:33:53 and made like Al Pacino and the Godfather 0:33:57 and settled family business with the succession 0:34:02 of remarkable hits against Israel’s enemies. 0:34:06 It’s difficult for me to see 0:34:09 that there isn’t retaliation for that. 0:34:11 I think the Israelis expect it. 0:34:16 It’s possible that the Iranians and Hezbollah duck 0:34:19 ’cause they don’t wanna be drawn into that conflict. 0:34:21 On the other hand, they may realize 0:34:23 that there’s some non-trivial probability 0:34:24 that Donald Trump gets reelected, 0:34:27 in which case their situation’s gonna be 0:34:30 much worse next year because Trump will ramp up 0:34:34 the pressure on Iran in a way that Biden has not. 0:34:37 So I’m afraid we’re probably on the eve of a war 0:34:40 that will make the war against Hamas look quite small 0:34:44 because Hezbollah has much, much better armed than Hamas. 0:34:48 It has a formidable arsenal of weapons and missiles. 0:34:51 And if this war does break out, 0:34:53 as I think it is increasingly likely, 0:34:55 it’s going to be a bloody war for both sides. 0:34:58 And Israel will certainly suffer more casualties 0:35:01 than it has in the war in Gaza. 0:35:02 – It appears that the calculation 0:35:04 is that Israel’s decided they’re ready, 0:35:07 that they’re up for that fight. 0:35:07 Your thoughts? 0:35:10 – It’s been a debate within the government 0:35:12 since October the 7th. 0:35:16 I was in Israel in the spring 0:35:18 and met with members of the government, 0:35:22 as well as with their opponents 0:35:25 and the critics of Mr. Netanyahu. 0:35:28 And what struck me was that 0:35:30 although the political divisions remain very deep 0:35:33 in Israel and hostility to Bibi is something 0:35:36 that is very widespread, 0:35:40 nevertheless, October the 7th changed something in Israel 0:35:44 and created a new unity, not a political unity, 0:35:47 but a unity of purpose. 0:35:52 The sense that a second Holocaust was premeditated 0:35:56 was being planned by the likes of Hamas, 0:35:59 has greatly changed the atmosphere and country, 0:36:03 and it has made even my liberal friends in Tel Aviv 0:36:08 more or less write off the idea of the Palestinian state 0:36:13 and more or less acquiesce in a very aggressive policy 0:36:17 directed against Hamas, Palestinian Islamic jihad 0:36:18 and now Hezbollah. 0:36:23 So if you go back to the days after October the 7th, 0:36:26 when we were all reeling from the sheer horror 0:36:29 of what was done by Hamas and its Confederates, 0:36:31 the debate that was going on 0:36:35 within the Israeli government was, 0:36:39 do we hit Hamas or do we actually go after Hezbollah? 0:36:44 And Defense Minister Galant and other military advisers said, 0:36:46 we should go after Hezbollah 0:36:48 ’cause it’s the stronger of our enemies. 0:36:50 And the planes were on their way. 0:36:52 They had taken off to hit Hezbollah 0:36:56 when Netanyahu overruled that decision 0:36:59 and said, no, we go after Hamas first. 0:37:02 So as always, the Middle East needs to be understood partly 0:37:05 through the lens of Israeli domestic politics. 0:37:08 Many people forget just how important that is. 0:37:10 Given it’s the only democracy in the region, 0:37:12 you have to follow its democracy closely. 0:37:16 And that battle about when do we hit Hezbollah 0:37:18 has been going on ever since October. 0:37:22 And I think ultimately the realization is 0:37:26 you can’t postpone indefinitely a showdown. 0:37:29 A, because they keep acquiring more weaponry. 0:37:32 B, because your people near the Lebanese border 0:37:35 were evacuated many months ago now 0:37:36 and they wanna go back to their homes. 0:37:39 You’ve got a very large displaced population 0:37:42 that was moved away from the Lebanese border. 0:37:44 If you wanna get them back in time for the school year, 0:37:46 you have to do this now in August. 0:37:49 So I think, although one can never be certain, 0:37:51 I think we’re quite close to the brink of a new phase 0:37:53 of the Middle Eastern conflict, 0:37:57 which in many cases is a multi-front war already. 0:37:58 It’s not just about Gaza, 0:38:01 though that’s what has dominated media coverage. 0:38:05 It’s also about Iran’s direct attacks on Israel. 0:38:07 It’s about the Houthis. 0:38:10 This is a very complex picture, 0:38:13 but Hezbollah is the organization 0:38:17 that poses the most clear and present threat to Israel. 0:38:20 And sooner or later, there’s gonna be a showdown. 0:38:23 And I think the argument that has been made 0:38:26 by the Israeli security services and armed services 0:38:28 is why wait for them to hit us first? 0:38:30 Why give them the initiative? 0:38:32 If we take the initiative, 0:38:34 then we’re likely to suffer fewer casualties 0:38:35 than if they do. 0:38:38 – Yeah, I felt as if, I don’t know if assassinations 0:38:39 are the right word or strikes. 0:38:42 – We’re pretty bold in that Israel, 0:38:44 the way I read it was Israel believes 0:38:47 that they are coming to an end of the war in Gaza, 0:38:49 that the tunnels are nearly taken out. 0:38:51 They’ve kind of cut the region in half 0:38:53 and controlling the flow of Hamas. 0:38:56 I was actually struck by how bold this was 0:38:58 that they’re effectively willing to open up 0:38:59 a two-front war. 0:39:01 Is that your sense of it? 0:39:05 – Yes, I don’t think it’s born of overconfidence though, 0:39:06 rather the opposite. 0:39:10 I think there’s considerable disquiet 0:39:14 about the extent to which Hamas has really been destroyed. 0:39:18 There’s a sense that Israel has to act now 0:39:21 because the longer it waits, 0:39:24 the worse the situation becomes. 0:39:29 So I think this decision to force the issue 0:39:31 with Iran and with Hezbollah 0:39:35 has been taken because they realize 0:39:38 that they’re getting nowhere 0:39:39 with ceasefire negotiations, 0:39:42 with the hostage negotiations, 0:39:45 because there’s no good faith on the side of Hamas. 0:39:48 Their situation internationally 0:39:51 is one of relative isolation. 0:39:53 That’s not new in the history of Israel. 0:39:57 And the support that they’ve received 0:40:01 from Biden administration has been tepid and bivalance 0:40:03 and there are elements of the administration 0:40:06 that clearly still somehow to believe 0:40:08 that you can reach a modus invendi 0:40:11 with Iran or resuscitate the Iran nuclear deal. 0:40:15 So the Israelis have decided it might as well be now. 0:40:18 It’s not ideal, but if not now, 0:40:21 when is our situation really gonna be better next year? 0:40:24 I think that’s what’s going on. 0:40:27 – You think it’s fair to call the Biden support of Israel 0:40:28 or involvement of Israel as tepid? 0:40:31 My understanding is it’d be difficult to point to any country 0:40:32 in the world, in my view, 0:40:36 that has provided more steadfast support than the US, 0:40:38 immediately deploying carrier strike forces, 0:40:40 coordinating around intelligence, 0:40:43 coordinating around defense systems 0:40:45 for the missile attack from Iran. 0:40:47 You really think it’s fair to call the support 0:40:48 from the US tepid? 0:40:50 – Yeah, I do. 0:40:55 I mean, because apart from the initial fine words 0:40:57 that Joe Biden uttered, 0:41:03 that the support has been publicly internationally tepid. 0:41:08 Of course, these things are all relative. 0:41:10 The US is more supportive of Israel 0:41:12 than any European country. 0:41:14 Yeah, I mean, there are European countries 0:41:17 that are recognizing a Palestinian state this year, 0:41:19 even though it doesn’t exist, 0:41:21 doesn’t seem likely to exist. 0:41:24 But if you compare Biden’s administration 0:41:27 with say, Richard Nixon’s in 1973, 0:41:31 which was the last time Israel suffered a surprise attack, 0:41:34 the scale of the support was far greater then. 0:41:37 The US support for Israel is much less important economically 0:41:39 than it was 50 years ago. 0:41:42 Much, much smaller share of Israeli GDP 0:41:45 because the Israeli economy is actually a much bigger 0:41:46 and more innovative economy. 0:41:49 So one mustn’t make the mistake of thinking 0:41:52 that the US is absolutely crucial to Israel. 0:41:56 It’s much less crucial than it was from a military 0:41:58 as well as an economic standpoint, 0:42:00 but it’s not indispensable. 0:42:02 And so, for example, the big problem 0:42:04 that doesn’t get talked about nearly enough 0:42:07 is that Iran is now very close 0:42:09 to having a nuclear capability. 0:42:12 I asked a Biden official not so long ago, 0:42:16 are you in fact acting like they do have nuclear capability? 0:42:19 Are you treating them as if they already are 0:42:20 a nuclear arm power? 0:42:23 Because although you sent to aircraft carrier groups, 0:42:26 they didn’t actually do anything to punish Iran 0:42:29 for its obvious complicity in October the 7th. 0:42:33 And on the whole, the administration tried 0:42:36 after October the 7th to pretend like Iran wasn’t involved, 0:42:38 which got hard to do when the Iranians 0:42:41 unleashed a direct drone missile attack on Israel 0:42:44 for the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic. 0:42:47 So I think this kind of ambivalence 0:42:51 which characterizes the administration as a whole 0:42:53 is in marked contrast to the support 0:42:55 Israel could count on in the 70s 0:42:59 when that support was absolutely indispensable. 0:43:01 I’ll add one other point. 0:43:04 Back in the 70s, you did not have a wing 0:43:08 of the Democratic Party, the progressive wing 0:43:10 taking the side of the Palestinians. 0:43:15 And so the politics is very different in 2024 0:43:18 as compared with 1974. 0:43:21 In 1974, the Democratic Party was pretty strongly supportive 0:43:26 of Israel and had a significant Jewish element 0:43:28 which Nixon used to complain about 0:43:29 because he would always bitch 0:43:30 that he was doing so much for Israel. 0:43:33 And where was the gratitude typical Nixon? 0:43:34 But we’re in a very different world today 0:43:38 where, you know, although Joe Biden’s still kind of rooted 0:43:41 in that era, and I think he means it 0:43:44 when he talks about the US commitment to Israel, 0:43:47 there are plenty of people to the left of Joe Biden 0:43:49 who certainly don’t feel that way. 0:43:51 We’ll be right back. 0:43:56 – Hey, this is Scott Galloway, 0:43:58 host of the PropG podcast. 0:44:00 One of my favorite things I get to do on this show 0:44:01 is hear from our listeners 0:44:02 and answer their burning questions 0:44:04 about all sorts of things, 0:44:06 including work, life, school, you name it. 0:44:08 And this summer, we’re bringing back the hits 0:44:11 and covering some of our favorite questions and takes. 0:44:13 We’re talking business career advice 0:44:14 and even hearing a brand new, 0:44:17 never been aired interview about parenthood. 0:44:19 So tune into the best of office hours, 0:44:21 the special series from the PropG podcast 0:44:23 sponsored by Mint Mobile. 0:44:25 You can find it on the PropG feed 0:44:27 wherever you get your podcasts. 0:44:31 – This episode is brought to you by PC Optimum. 0:44:32 If you like a curated playlist, 0:44:34 why not try a curated grocery list? 0:44:37 With Swap and Save, the new feature in the PC Optimum app, 0:44:40 you’ll get PC Optimum’s best price for your grocery items. 0:44:43 Simply add products to your shopping list in the app 0:44:45 and it’ll show you similar items at a lower cost. 0:44:47 Add coffee to your list, 0:44:48 then swap it for one that’s cheaper. 0:44:51 Craving chips, the app will suggest some on sale. 0:44:53 To get started, just open the app. 0:44:54 It’s as easy as that. 0:44:57 See the PC Optimum app for details. 0:45:01 – Introducing Tim’s new and fuser energy beverages 0:45:03 made with natural caffeine. 0:45:04 They come in two refreshing flavors, 0:45:07 Blackberry Yuzu and Mango Starfruit. 0:45:09 Try them today, only at Tim’s. 0:45:11 At participating Tim’s restaurants in Canada 0:45:12 for a limited time. 0:45:16 ♪ It’s time for Tim’s ♪ 0:45:17 – So let’s move to the US. 0:45:22 You said that Vice President Harris 0:45:24 is a California Democrat through and through, 0:45:27 therefore it’ll be hard to draw in moderate voters. 0:45:29 And also you’ve described the Republicans remain 0:45:31 the captives of the personality called the MAGA movement 0:45:35 and the Democrats remain the captives of the donor crats, 0:45:37 the wealthy friends of the Clintons and the Obamas. 0:45:39 Give us what you think the state of play is in the election 0:45:43 and who do you think is likely to prevail in November? 0:45:45 – Well, anybody who tells you 0:45:47 that you know the answer to that question 0:45:52 in August of an election year I think is having you on. 0:45:57 It’s once again, close to a coin toss. 0:46:02 We’ve gone back to where we were on the eve of the debate 0:46:06 that blew Joe Biden’s hopes of reelection up. 0:46:09 And the polls are gonna be noisy 0:46:11 probably for the next few weeks 0:46:14 because not only do you have the bounce 0:46:18 that comes with the novel nominee 0:46:19 but you have the problem bounce 0:46:22 that comes with the convention. 0:46:26 So my sense is that when all of this bouncing is over 0:46:28 and we get to Labor Day, 0:46:33 there will be some return to where we were in June 0:46:38 with Trump slightly ahead 0:46:41 but with some polls putting Harris ahead 0:46:43 and within the margin of error. 0:46:45 And then you’ll look at the states that are in play 0:46:49 and you’ll say, well, it’s still pretty close 0:46:51 in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Michigan 0:46:53 and maybe there are some other states 0:46:55 that have changed a bit since Harris became the nominee 0:46:58 but it’s close and that’s not surprising 0:47:02 because if you set aside the personalities of the candidates 0:47:07 which media they pay more attention to than is wanted, 0:47:11 American politics is really run by two machines, 0:47:13 Republican and Democratic party machines. 0:47:15 And these machines are very good at delivering 0:47:19 most states and most counties within most states 0:47:24 to one or other party leaving very little contested ground. 0:47:28 And the contested ground is contested partly 0:47:31 because it just has demographic peculiarities 0:47:34 and partly because there are independent voters 0:47:38 who are up for grabs who vote one way in one election 0:47:39 and another way in another. 0:47:42 So when you kind of take a step back 0:47:43 and look at American politics, 0:47:44 two things are really striking. 0:47:47 One, it’s a two-party system still 0:47:50 and there aren’t any others like that everywhere else 0:47:51 including in the English speaking world 0:47:54 where they used to have two-party systems like the UK, 0:47:56 doesn’t have a two-party system anymore 0:48:00 but the US has institutionalized duopoly 0:48:05 and it’s extraordinarily difficult to break that duopoly 0:48:08 even though about a third of the electorates 0:48:09 say they’re independents 0:48:12 and would rather that they had another option. 0:48:15 Second really striking thing is that one party 0:48:19 has retained elite control Democrats. 0:48:21 That’s why I use the term donor crats 0:48:25 ’cause the wealthy elites currently in the Hamptons 0:48:28 or in Aspen, that elite still controls the party. 0:48:31 They determined that Biden was no longer viable 0:48:33 and they agreed that it would be Harris 0:48:36 and that they wouldn’t have a contested or open convention. 0:48:39 All of this was done with phone calls and texts 0:48:44 between, oh, perhaps a dozen people who made the decision. 0:48:46 The difference with the Republican Party 0:48:48 is that their equivalents, 0:48:51 the wealthy Republican donors, 0:48:52 no longer control the party. 0:48:54 Those people would have far rather, 0:48:56 Ron DeSantis was the nominee 0:48:57 and when that didn’t work out, 0:48:59 they would far rather have had Nikki Haley 0:49:03 but they failed because a MAGA movement 0:49:06 that is in part a personality cult around Donald Trump 0:49:09 now controls the Republican Party. 0:49:11 And that’s what makes this election close 0:49:15 because if you had a better organized, 0:49:17 better disciplined Republican machine 0:49:20 and a more conventional candidate, 0:49:22 you would absolutely clean up in this election. 0:49:27 The Democrats are very vulnerable on key issues. 0:49:30 They had an inflation mistake that was predictable 0:49:32 and people haven’t forgiven them. 0:49:34 They have an immigration problem on their hands 0:49:36 because of the Southern border. 0:49:39 Those two issues alone should ensure 0:49:41 that the next president’s a Republican 0:49:45 but because the Republican Party is no longer 0:49:47 under the control of its elites, 0:49:51 it’s capable of making tremendous self-harming mistakes 0:49:55 and that may give Kamala Harris a chance 0:49:57 to be President of the United States. 0:49:59 – So just on the inflation issue, 0:50:03 I would argue it’s unfair to lay it at the feet of Biden. 0:50:05 My sense of inflation is too many dollars 0:50:06 facing too few products. 0:50:09 And with the amount of stimulus presented 0:50:11 with in both the Trump and Biden administration 0:50:14 where 85% of it was saved and it just went into the market 0:50:17 which sent prices skyrocketing 0:50:19 and had more money chasing too few products. 0:50:21 And ultimately, I would argue the culprit of inflation 0:50:24 is Putin who interrupted the supply chain. 0:50:27 Don’t you think both Trump and Biden share equal blame 0:50:29 along with Putin for inflation? 0:50:30 I just think it’s unfair to say 0:50:32 that Biden had a misstep around inflation 0:50:34 that’s any greater than the misstep around Trump. 0:50:35 Your thoughts? 0:50:39 – Scott, I seem to remember that your family, 0:50:43 Hales, as mine does from the East and from the East. 0:50:45 I don’t remember anybody in Shepard. 0:50:46 – Sandy Hills. 0:50:49 – Nobody in Sandy Hills ever said life was fair. 0:50:53 In fact, it was a recurrent refrain of my childhood. 0:50:56 Life isn’t fair, get used to it. 0:50:58 No, of course, politics is not fair 0:51:02 and the voters are deeply unfair to Joe Biden 0:51:04 when it comes to the performance of the economy 0:51:08 which practically any president of the last 100 years 0:51:11 would have seized with both hands 0:51:13 if it had been offered. 0:51:14 Here’s the deal. 0:51:18 You get full employment, you get surgeon growth, 0:51:21 you get investment in manufacturing structures. 0:51:24 – Markets touching all time highs. 0:51:26 – And the stock markets roaring 0:51:31 and inflation has a 9% high in the midterm year 0:51:35 and then it falls back towards 2%. 0:51:39 I mean, the presidents going all the way back 100 years 0:51:41 would have taken the data 0:51:46 that this president has presided over with relish 0:51:49 and yet the voters bitch about economy 0:51:53 to every pollster who calls them up and why is that? 0:51:55 So there are two theories as you know, Scott. 0:51:58 Theory one is they just don’t forgive 9% 0:52:01 because they got real, really used 0:52:02 to low single digit inflation 0:52:05 and high single digit inflation has made them mad 0:52:06 and they like the price level. 0:52:10 They don’t care about core CPI or core PCE. 0:52:12 They just like, hey, it’s still expensive 0:52:13 compared with what it was. 0:52:16 That’s explanation number one. 0:52:17 I have a lot of sympathy with that explanation 0:52:19 ’cause it tracks with my observation 0:52:21 of how ordinary people think about the economy. 0:52:23 But then there’s the Larry Summers point 0:52:24 which you probably know, 0:52:25 which is well, actually higher rates 0:52:27 might not hurt you through your mortgage 0:52:28 if you have a 30 year mortgage, 0:52:31 but it hurts you through a whole bunch of other things. 0:52:32 A whole bunch of other debts you have. 0:52:33 So you take your pick. 0:52:37 My basic view of this is that the Democrats 0:52:39 were dreaming last year when they said 0:52:41 they were gonna run on Bidenomics 0:52:45 ’cause the voters hate Bidenomics and it’s unfair. 0:52:51 I will add the fair part is that the inflation overshoot 0:52:55 in the US was a direct consequence of fiscal overkill 0:52:59 in 2021 that was the result of hubris 0:53:01 in the Biden administration. 0:53:03 They did not need to throw so much money at the economy 0:53:07 when the vaccine said 90% plus efficacy. 0:53:09 And I said that at the time, 0:53:10 Summers also said it, 0:53:14 that this was an avoidable policy error. 0:53:16 They did not need to juice the economy as aggressively 0:53:18 as they did most of the inflation in Europe 0:53:20 was Putin’s fault. 0:53:22 It was basically a supply shock. 0:53:25 About half or more the inflation in the US 0:53:26 was a demand effect, 0:53:30 which I think came from keeping the stimulus going too long 0:53:33 after the pandemic was beginning to dissipate. 0:53:37 – And then finally, as we wrap up here, 0:53:40 both of us have spent time in different directions 0:53:42 in different tenures and different parts of our life, 0:53:43 but in the UK and the US, 0:53:44 I would argue those are the two nations, 0:53:46 you know the best, they’re the two nations, 0:53:47 I know the best. 0:53:49 And my understanding is you’re now spending more time 0:53:52 in the UK after spending a lot of time in the US. 0:53:55 Can you compare and contrast what the difference 0:53:58 between business and politics and general lifestyle 0:54:01 between your observations, having spent time in both countries 0:54:03 and what it says about us? 0:54:08 – Yes, well, Britain, the United Kingdom of Great Britain 0:54:10 and Northern Ireland to be precise 0:54:15 is despite a brief foray with Republican government 0:54:16 in the mid 17th century, 0:54:20 a monarchy that retains a hereditary aristocracy, 0:54:22 even though they’ve just lost their seats 0:54:23 in the House of Lords. 0:54:26 It is a society still bound 0:54:30 to a striking extent by tradition. 0:54:33 And I noticed this having returned to spend more time 0:54:34 in the UK for family reasons, 0:54:38 because I’ve spent most of the last 20 years 0:54:41 in this revolutionary republic, 0:54:43 the United States of America, 0:54:47 which still has the character of a revolutionary republic. 0:54:50 When you view it through British eyes, 0:54:54 the way in which this election is being conducted, 0:54:56 the vituperation, the threat of violence, 0:54:59 the sheer nastiness is very reminiscent 0:55:02 of the American politics Charles Dickens encountered 0:55:07 when he visited early in the 19th century and was appalled. 0:55:10 British politics is still a game of cricket 0:55:13 between people who went to Oxford. 0:55:16 And you saw that very clearly when Rishi Sunak 0:55:21 was roundly defeated by Sir Keir Starmer on July 4th. 0:55:27 The handshakes, the jokes that I sail, 0:55:30 chap, Johnny Good Show, bad luck, oh boy. 0:55:33 I mean, all of that is exactly the way 0:55:36 in which British politicians have conducted themselves 0:55:38 over 200 years. 0:55:43 And so there’s a sense in which that continuity limits 0:55:46 the range of outcomes in British politics. 0:55:50 Even after a period of turmoil that Brexit created, 0:55:53 that period of turmoil was like periods of turmoil 0:55:55 in the 19th century over the corn laws, 0:55:59 over protectionism, turmoil over the Irish question. 0:56:01 Although we have periods of turmoil 0:56:04 and we’ve had years of multiple prime ministers before, 0:56:07 the system remains stable around, 0:56:09 particularly around Oxford University 0:56:13 because there seems to be one rule of British politics 0:56:14 and that is that the prime minister 0:56:15 has to have been to Oxford. 0:56:18 There are very, very few exceptions to that rule. 0:56:22 Having said all that, we would be deluding ourselves 0:56:26 if we didn’t recognize some similarities 0:56:28 and points of convergence. 0:56:31 I don’t think Taylor Swift is a smaller deal 0:56:34 in the UK than in the US. 0:56:36 I don’t think AI is a smaller deal. 0:56:38 – That’s what unites us, Taylor. 0:56:39 – I was the first. 0:56:41 The second was, of course, AI. 0:56:43 And the third is this potential 0:56:45 for conflict over immigration. 0:56:47 It’s tragic that three little girls were murdered 0:56:52 by, it appears, the teenage son of immigrants from Rwanda 0:56:57 when the girls were attending a Taylor Swift dance class. 0:57:02 And this has unleashed a kind of classic summer time 0:57:06 period of violence in the UK 0:57:09 that reminds us that it’s not all cricket 0:57:11 and well done, old Chuck, 0:57:14 that some of the trends that have produced populism 0:57:17 and political violence in the US 0:57:22 are in fact still to be found in the United Kingdom too. 0:57:23 – It’s interesting. 0:57:24 If I understand you, Greg, 0:57:26 you’re saying the coarseness of our discourse in the US 0:57:28 might be a feature, not a bug. 0:57:30 – Oh, it’s absolutely a feature. 0:57:35 And visitors commented on it from very early on 0:57:39 in the Republic, the sense that politics in America 0:57:42 is a contact sport, perhaps even a blood sport, 0:57:44 whereas in Britain, it’s cricket. 0:57:47 That goes back a very, very long way indeed. 0:57:50 But, you know, we’re divided by a common language, 0:57:55 united by a great deal of increasingly global, 0:57:58 popular culture, and both the United States 0:58:03 and the United Kingdom face the same sociological dilemma. 0:58:05 We are aging societies. 0:58:10 Half of the electorate in the United States is over 50. 0:58:13 It’s somewhat similar, perhaps even older in the UK. 0:58:16 Older voters are not only more numerous 0:58:17 relative than they used to be, 0:58:20 but they also turn out at higher rates than younger voters. 0:58:24 And older voters want two contradictory things. 0:58:27 They don’t really like inflation, that’s nothing new, 0:58:29 but they also don’t like immigration. 0:58:32 The problem is that if you don’t have large-scale immigration, 0:58:33 the inflation would have been higher. 0:58:36 Think about the counterfactual of closed borders 0:58:39 in the period of the last four years. 0:58:40 The inflation would certainly have been higher 0:58:43 ’cause the tight labor markets would have driven wages up. 0:58:45 And so it’s very hard to satisfy 0:58:48 what old American and old British voters want. 0:58:50 They also want healthcare. 0:58:52 In the US, this manifests itself 0:58:55 as a sort of health insurance inflation problem. 0:58:58 In the UK, the National Health Service rations healthcare, 0:59:01 and so everybody’s always grumbling that they take weeks, 0:59:03 take weeks to get a doctor’s appointment 0:59:07 and months, if not years, to get a surgical procedure. 0:59:09 But it’s the same basic problem. 0:59:11 It’s just that the systems are radically different 0:59:12 in the way that they work. 0:59:16 So as I go back and forth across the Atlantic, 0:59:17 which I have to do far too often, 0:59:19 I’m struck by the fact that 0:59:22 although we think of ourselves as being very different, 0:59:25 and in some institutional respects we are, 0:59:28 there’s real convergence in the experience 0:59:30 of being British and the experience of being American, 0:59:34 whether you’re an oldie or a table swift fan. 0:59:36 – Sir Neil Ferguson is a Millbank family senior fellow 0:59:39 at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, 0:59:41 and a senior faculty fellow 0:59:42 at the Belfer Center for Science 0:59:44 and International Affairs at Harvard. 0:59:46 He’s also a columnist at the Free Press 0:59:48 and the author of 16 books, 0:59:51 including The Pity of War, The House of Rothschild, 0:59:54 and Kissinger, 1923 to 1968. 0:59:57 The idealist, which won the Council on Foreign Relations, 0:59:58 Arthur Ross Brice. 1:00:01 In 2024, he was knighted by King Charles III 1:00:02 for services to literature. 1:00:05 What a nice moment for you, Neil. 1:00:08 Congratulations on that, that’s a nice, 1:00:10 just a really nice thing for you and your family. 1:00:13 And he joins us from somewhere in New England. 1:00:16 Neil, I always love hearing from you as do our listeners. 1:00:18 It’s just, you just kind of have, 1:00:20 your comments are totally puncturing 1:00:22 and open me up to a viewpoint quite frankly 1:00:24 that I don’t share most of the time. 1:00:26 But really appreciate all your good work 1:00:28 and welcome back to the U.K. 1:00:30 Anyways, it’s great to catch up with you. 1:00:33 (upbeat music) 1:00:44 – Outdoor of happiness, where to live? 1:00:46 So I had two close friends, 1:00:48 Eddie Blau and David Frey, 1:00:50 who were my roommates, my sophomore year, 1:00:53 come hang out with me at Aspen 1:00:55 and they brought another close friend 1:00:57 from the fraternity, Michael Baruch. 1:01:00 It was just so wonderful to see all three of them. 1:01:02 But one thing I think they’ve missed out on 1:01:04 and that I’ve gotten right, 1:01:06 and that is I have lived in five different cities 1:01:08 and they chose not to leave their city. 1:01:11 And I understand they have nice lives. 1:01:13 But my advice to any young person 1:01:17 would be to take a risk and live in another city. 1:01:17 I think it informs you, 1:01:19 I think it’s an incredible experience. 1:01:22 And I think the analysis that young people do 1:01:23 is that they say, 1:01:26 well, I could never do better than to live in this city. 1:01:28 I have family here, I have friends here, 1:01:29 I’m doing well here. 1:01:30 I totally get that. 1:01:32 Now I’m living in London right now. 1:01:35 To be honest, I don’t like it as much as New York. 1:01:37 I don’t like Europe as much as the U.S. 1:01:39 But the key is not necessarily to do better, 1:01:40 it’s to do different. 1:01:42 And it informs you, 1:01:45 it creates a different appreciation 1:01:47 to look at the world through a different lens. 1:01:49 I think it’s really interesting to look at America 1:01:49 through a different lens. 1:01:51 What is looking in America 1:01:53 through a European lens done for me 1:01:55 makes me appreciate America more. 1:01:57 And despite all of our faults, all of our weirdness, 1:02:00 I mean, some of the things I love about the UK, 1:02:03 there’s not a discussion around assault rifles 1:02:06 or transgender rights or bodily autonomy for women. 1:02:07 These are givens there. 1:02:10 It’s like, well, of course we don’t allow assault weapons 1:02:11 in the general public. 1:02:13 Well, of course a woman should be able to decide 1:02:14 if she wants to terminate a pregnancy. 1:02:18 And I really enjoy that or appreciate it, I should say. 1:02:21 But I also recognize that there’s something about the U.S. 1:02:22 we’re willing to take risks. 1:02:23 We embrace risk. 1:02:25 It’s you meet with people around business. 1:02:27 It’s like, okay, we’re not interested 1:02:30 or we are interested, let’s go. 1:02:33 People are much more willing to take risks. 1:02:34 They’re kind of the distinction 1:02:36 or the thing that summarizes the distinction 1:02:39 between Europe and the U.S. for me is simple. 1:02:42 Millions of people looked around and said, 1:02:43 “You know what, I’m gonna get on a steamship 1:02:46 and go to this place, an unknown, 1:02:48 and I’m gonna try and forge a new life 1:02:50 and stake my claim if you will.” 1:02:52 And tens of millions of people decided, 1:02:53 “No, I’m just gonna hang here.” 1:02:55 That is the distinction. 1:02:58 The DNA, the type of people that came to America, 1:03:00 immigrants from all over the world decided to take a risk. 1:03:03 And it’s made me appreciate the risk aggressiveness, 1:03:06 the diversity of the U.S., 1:03:09 the action orientation, sort of the ready-fire aim. 1:03:11 But I wouldn’t have that perspective 1:03:12 unless I’d lived in Europe. 1:03:14 And what I would suggest to any young person 1:03:15 is that if you have the ability, 1:03:17 especially with remote work, 1:03:20 if before you have aging parents 1:03:22 or you have kids of your own, 1:03:25 by all means, brother, get on a boat, a plane, a bus, 1:03:26 and live in a different city. 1:03:29 You don’t need to do better. 1:03:30 You need to do different. 1:03:32 (upbeat music) 1:03:34 This episode was produced by Caroline Shagren. 1:03:36 Jennifer Sanchez is our associate producer 1:03:38 and Drew Burroughs is our technical director. 1:03:40 Thank you for listening to The Property Pod 1:03:42 from the Vox Media Podcast Network. 1:03:43 We will catch you on Saturday 1:03:46 for “No Mercy, No Malice” as read by George Han. 1:03:48 And please follow our Property Markets Pod 1:03:50 wherever you get your pods for new episodes 1:03:53 every Monday and Thursday. 1:03:55 (upbeat music) 1:04:02 – Little muffin. 1:04:07 – Support for the show comes from Into the Mix, 1:04:09 a Ben and Jerry’s podcast about joy and justice 1:04:11 produced with Vox Creative. 1:04:14 Into the Mix is back for a new season 1:04:16 and welcomes you in with four new stories 1:04:18 that take listeners beyond the headlines 1:04:21 and into the lives of ordinary people 1:04:23 fighting for justice in their communities. 1:04:25 Starting with Ainez Bordeaux, 1:04:27 an activist and St. Louis native 1:04:30 who fought to shut down the workhouse, 1:04:32 a notorious pretrial detention center 1:04:35 that she says functioned like a debtor’s prison. 1:04:38 Subscribe to Into the Mix, a Ben and Jerry’s podcast 1:04:40 to listen to the first episode 1:04:42 of the special three-part series “Out Now.” 1:04:46 – Hey, this is Scott Galloway, 1:04:47 host of the Property Podcast. 1:04:50 One of my favorite things I get to do on this show 1:04:51 is hear from our listeners 1:04:52 and answer their burning questions 1:04:53 about all sorts of things, 1:04:56 including work, life, school, you name it. 1:04:58 And this summer, we’re bringing back the hits 1:05:01 and covering some of our favorite questions and takes. 1:05:03 We’re talking business, career advice, 1:05:04 and even hearing a brand new, 1:05:07 never been aired interview about parenthood. 1:05:09 So tune into the best of office hours 1:05:11 for a special series from the Property Podcast 1:05:13 sponsored by Mint Mobile. 1:05:14 You can find it on the Property Feed 1:05:16 wherever you get your podcasts.
Niall Ferguson, a historian, author, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, and columnist at The Free Press, joins Scott to discuss why we’re currently in Cold War II, his thoughts on the US presidential candidates, and gives us an update on conflicts happening around the world. @nfergus.
Scott opens with his thoughts on the DOJ’s antitrust hammer on Google.