0:00:03 Avoiding your unfinished home projects because you’re not sure where to start?
0:00:07 Thumbtack knows homes, so you don’t have to.
0:00:10 Don’t know the difference between matte paint finish and satin?
0:00:13 Or what that clunking sound from your dryer is?
0:00:16 With Thumbtack, you don’t have to be a home pro.
0:00:17 You just have to hire one.
0:00:23 You can hire top-rated pros, see price estimates, and read reviews all on the app.
0:00:24 Download today.
0:00:28 Support for the show comes from General Assembly.
0:00:31 It seems like just about every industry is trying to figure out how to fit AI into their workflows.
0:00:35 You can’t throw a rock without hitting a new product that promises to automate, innovate, and optimize.
0:00:38 But what good is a powerful tool if you don’t know how to use it?
0:00:43 According to their data, General Assembly found that 58% of executives have never had any kind of AI training,
0:00:45 which means that the skill gap starts at the top.
0:00:50 If that sounds familiar to you, you’re in luck, because now there’s an AI academy from General Assembly.
0:00:55 General Assembly’s AI academy helps teams master AI by offering role-specific, real-world training
0:00:58 designed to boost productivity and accelerate transformation.
0:01:03 You and your team can learn the in-demand skills that unlock the potential of AI at every level of the organization.
0:01:07 That’s practical AI fluency for every team, not just the tech team.
0:01:13 Visit ga.co slash AI academy to explore AI academy training tracks tailored to your team’s roles and goals.
0:01:18 That’s ga.co slash AI academy to learn more.
0:01:21 ga.co slash AI academy.
0:01:22 General Assembly.
0:01:24 Real skills, real impact.
0:01:32 There’s a lot nobody tells you about running a small business, like the pricing,
0:01:42 the marketing, the budgeting, the accidents, the panicking, and the things, and the things, and the non-stop things.
0:01:46 But having the right insurance can help protect you from many things.
0:01:51 Customize your coverage to get the protection you need with BCAA Small Business Insurance.
0:01:57 Use promo code PROTECT to receive $50 off at bcaa.com slash smallbusiness.
0:02:01 Episode 356.
0:02:03 356 is the country code for Malta.
0:02:08 In 1956, Elvis Presley released his first hit single, Heartbreak Hotel.
0:02:08 Choose to it.
0:02:12 Someone asked me to do an impression of Elvis, and I said, sure.
0:02:14 And I pretended to be dead on the crapper.
0:02:16 Go!
0:02:17 Go!
0:02:17 Go!
0:02:18 Go!
0:02:28 Welcome to the 356th episode of the Prop G-Pod.
0:02:28 What’s happening?
0:02:30 I am still in Ibiza.
0:02:33 I just think Ibiza is fascinating.
0:02:40 One, they’ve managed to maintain this point of differentiation in this sort of singular ownership of island life and DJ culture.
0:02:43 And the result is incredible margins.
0:02:52 Specifically, I am staying at the Sixth Senses, which is this new raft of six-star priced hotels with four-star service.
0:02:54 It’s just, it’s nice.
0:02:55 It’s lovely.
0:02:58 But it’s not worth the money we’re paying, quite frankly.
0:03:06 And part of that is, A, Ibiza draws a tremendous crowd with lots of money and has this sort of singular feel.
0:03:06 What do you want to do?
0:03:07 What is all strategy?
0:03:09 What can we do that is really hard?
0:03:15 Becoming known for a great island that has the world’s best DJs in residence, that is really hard to do.
0:03:19 And then figuring out a way to price discriminate such that you get enough people to create a vibe,
0:03:28 but also monetize the people here who are in their 50s who still want to see Calvin Harris and figure out a way to charge them a crazy amount of money.
0:03:29 That’s just not easy.
0:03:35 Speaking of the super wealthy getting even wealthier, the tax bill passed last week, which I find incredibly disturbing.
0:03:41 One, because I can’t understand how America has not basically decided it’s the Hunger Games.
0:03:43 And that is, they weren’t fooled.
0:03:46 I think people want to think, oh, they don’t realize what’s in the bill.
0:03:49 Unfortunately, I think Americans do realize what’s in the bill.
0:03:58 And I think the lower 90 realize that they’re now nutrition for the top 10 percent, but believe that someday they’ll be in the top 10 and also conflate masculinity with cruelty.
0:04:12 When they see ICE agents holding people down and putting a knee on their head as a, you know, a 16-year-old screams to let his mother go, they find that those are hard decisions and that’s masculinity and that’s leadership.
0:04:15 And they’re so angry, they want to see that type of persecution.
0:04:17 You want to protect jobs, people?
0:04:23 Get your head out of your ass and start figuring out vocational training and some sort of, I don’t know, upskilling around AI.
0:04:25 You know who’s taking our jobs?
0:04:29 It’s not some lady wiping your grandma’s ass or collecting or picking your crops.
0:04:38 What does it mean when you have ICE agents who find that the most fruitful ways to find these quote-unquote undocumented workers is at schools, churches, and Home Depot?
0:04:40 Are those really the people we want to be deporting?
0:04:46 Anyways, by the way, this is totally reimagined Gestapo, full stop.
0:04:46 Yeah.
0:04:55 Oh, by the way, in case you’re asking, in case you just got your conservative ire up or my, are about to accuse me of TDS and say, oh, what, you’re comparing him to Hitler?
0:04:58 Yeah, I am, 100 percent, 100 percent.
0:05:01 But it’s clear, this isn’t just an accident.
0:05:03 The American people have not been fooled here.
0:05:04 They’ve decided this is what they want.
0:05:06 They want a certain level of harshness.
0:05:08 They want a certain level of cruelty.
0:05:12 They’ve conflated that with leadership and masculinity.
0:05:14 I think that is what is most frightening and most disappointing here.
0:05:27 But by the way, I’ve loaded my taxes into Chad GPT, and I’m going to get this, save about between $400,000 and $1.4 million a year over the next five years, based on what I’m hoping I make and the impact of this tax bill.
0:05:33 This is nothing but a transfer of wealth, again, from the poor to the rich.
0:05:44 And the poor will see most of that transfer in the form of incredible erosion in health care and the social safety net, and the wealthy will just get continued goodies in terms of tax cuts.
0:05:56 And then we’ll throw in some authoritarianism wrapped in bureaucratic language such that the senior administrative officials, administration officials can’t be subpoenaed or aren’t subject to certain checks or safeguards.
0:05:59 This is absolutely a move towards authoritarianism.
0:06:03 And what’s the most disturbing thing about it is it doesn’t feel like the American public has been fooled.
0:06:07 It appears that that is, in fact, what they want.
0:06:13 I look at when I’m on a vacation like this, I have time to slow down.
0:06:19 And I think like most people, when you’re on vacation with your family, you do kind of count your blessings and have some time to reflect.
0:06:23 And I immediately reverse engineer my prosperity.
0:06:26 This is what happens when you’re under the age of 40, or this is what happened to me.
0:06:28 And maybe I was just less thoughtful than most people.
0:06:34 But under the age of 40, when I reverse engineered my success to pillars, I credited my grit and my character.
0:06:35 Like, check my shit out.
0:06:37 I’m just so fucking impressive.
0:06:42 And this is, and all the panels I was on, well, this is how I, I, I did this X, Y, and Z.
0:06:48 And then as you get older, you realize, and I think this is part of maturing, that a lot of your success is not your fault.
0:06:51 And that has become so strikingly clear to me as I’ve gotten older.
0:06:59 And then when I reverse engineer my prosperity and blessings to pillars upon which those, that prosperity and those blessings were built on,
0:07:03 I go all the way back to the fourth grade when I got assisted lunch.
0:07:05 That is my family.
0:07:07 My mom made $800 a month as a secretary.
0:07:09 And so we qualified for assisted lunch.
0:07:17 And the wonderful thing about this program, the wonderful, the really generous thing that reflected so well on America about this program,
0:07:19 I didn’t know about it.
0:07:20 I didn’t know about it till later in life.
0:07:21 Why?
0:07:28 Because the good taxpayers of California and our wonderful federal government said it’s important that nine-year-olds don’t feel stigmatized.
0:07:30 So my mom would send in paperwork.
0:07:34 I would get the same lunch and breakfast coupons that every other kid had.
0:07:35 So there was no stigma attached.
0:07:42 I think that says something so nice about American values, or at least what used to be American values.
0:07:44 And then I got to high school.
0:07:50 When I was 17, and I’ve spoken very openly about this, my mom told me she was going to have to spend the night in the hospital
0:07:55 because she was getting something called a DNC, which I later found out meant she was getting an abortion.
0:08:05 And had we lived in America, in deep, dark, red country, we just weren’t very sophisticated or knowledgeable.
0:08:09 We probably would have had an unwanted pregnancy.
0:08:11 And at the age of 17, I had a job installing shelving.
0:08:12 I was making good money.
0:08:16 I probably, I most definitely would not have gone to UCLA.
0:08:27 And that would have not created this upward spiral of prosperity that I’ve enjoyed because of the generosity of California taxpayers and the great University of California system.
0:08:31 When I got to UCLA, the only way I got through was with Pell Grants.
0:08:33 I just couldn’t afford to be there.
0:08:38 Oh, and by the way, the fact that it had a 74% admissions rate, but Pell Grants got me through college.
0:08:43 And I qualified for those because, see, above, I came from an upper, lower, middle-class household.
0:08:48 A third of Pell Grant recipients will either have their grants reduced or eliminated.
0:08:55 When I graduated from college, I got to start companies and raise tens and then hundreds of millions of dollars.
0:08:58 All of my companies were built on the Internet.
0:08:59 Oh, by the way, who funded the Internet?
0:09:00 The federal government.
0:09:04 Why? Because we have the capital to make these big forward-leaning investments in technology.
0:09:17 We’re about to have a trillion dollars in debt service payments, which will crowd out all types of forward-leaning technology investments because we are massively funding with future prosperity these tax cuts.
0:09:23 So are we going to have the money to invent or invest in these deep, deep technologies that the private sector won’t invest in?
0:09:25 Oh, I was able to raise capital.
0:09:25 Why?
0:09:30 Because there was $5 million for every startup in the United States versus $1 million in Europe.
0:09:30 Why?
0:09:31 Because of rule of law.
0:09:33 Who built my companies?
0:09:34 Well, one, I’d like to think I had a role on it.
0:09:39 But Jawad Mohamed, my first programmer, Red Envelope, an immigrant from Pakistan.
0:09:46 Claude De Jokist, probably our most talented consultant, ran our CPG group, was an immigrant from Canada, who, by the way, was almost kicked out of America.
0:09:55 But because I have money, I was able to lawyer up and make sure she could stay and build a great American company that seven years later, we sold for $160 million.
0:09:58 Made a bunch of Americans and made a bunch of Americans and some immigrants rich.
0:10:04 Christine Dang at Red Envelope, our chief merchant, an immigrant from Vietnam.
0:10:12 The talent pool to build these great companies was because we, in fact, we, in fact, loved immigrants.
0:10:14 So let’s go even further back.
0:10:16 America welcomed my mother and father.
0:10:26 Had they run the risk of having their phone absconded or being shipped to some sort of detention center in a swamp land or being tracked down at work or something like that?
0:10:30 Or even if they got here legally, they think, do I really need to be here fucking?
0:10:35 Oh, another great immigrant, Maria Petrova, who, in her fifth language, edits my books and newsletters.
0:10:37 Jesus Christ.
0:10:39 Yeah, we don’t want that kind of talent coming here anymore.
0:10:51 So even if they’re not worried about having being run down and basically physically abused by ice, mass ice agents, do they really want to come here?
0:10:55 Universities. I got to go create an amazing platform at universities.
0:10:59 Why? Because corporations love working with academics.
0:11:08 There was incredible deep research funded by the government that gave us the resources to pursue the truth, which the private sector absolutely loves and benefits from.
0:11:10 Now, that’s under attack.
0:11:11 Back to mom and dad.
0:11:12 I don’t think they’d be here.
0:11:16 I don’t think I would have been able to make the best decision I’ve ever made.
0:11:20 The best decision I’ve ever made would not have been afforded to me, specifically to be born in America,
0:11:25 because I don’t think my parents would have come and put up a door to risk this bullshit right now.
0:11:28 Let’s go even further back, even further back.
0:11:35 My mother was a four year old sleeping in the tube in London as Hitler bombed the shit out of London in the Blitzkrieg.
0:11:51 history is because we decided that fascism was unacceptable.
0:11:53 History is rhyming.
0:11:56 It sounds like a bad cover band right now.
0:11:57 Would I be here?
0:12:03 Would my mom have survived if America hadn’t immediately decided that fascism was unacceptable?
0:12:27 So everything that I think I am blessed with or many things that have created just what is an exceptional life around around economic opportunity, loving the middle class, giving people merit and opportunity, a certain rule of fair play, a love of immigrants and a love of the unremarkable.
0:12:36 And appreciation that with a little bit of money, you can invest in young people and they will be able to pay that money back.
0:12:46 And that will be a good return on investment, making sure kids have nutrition, making sure people have access to some sort of dignity, making sure that women have some sort of bodily autonomy.
0:12:52 All the things my success is built on, all of those foundations are under attack right now.
0:13:02 And if you look through your history and your blessings, and most of us are a lot more blessed than we want to believe because social media has made us angry at everybody and angry at ourselves.
0:13:05 But the majority of you listening to this podcast have exceptional prosperity.
0:13:17 And if you reverse engineer it to many of the core things that weren’t your fault, that really led to your success, many of them, many of them, if not most of them, in my case, are under attack.
0:13:30 This is a direct insult to all of the people who made huge sacrifices to ensure that we lived in a free, democratic society that loved unremarkable people.
0:13:33 Okay, moving on.
0:13:43 In today’s episode, we speak with Heather Cox Richardson, a Boston College historian and author who connects American history to today’s politics in her bestselling books and popular newsletter, Letters from an American.
0:13:50 We discussed with Professor Richardson the evolution of the Republican Party, Trump’s mega bill, and what still gives her hope for America.
0:13:54 So with that, here’s our conversation with Heather Cox Richardson.
0:14:12 Professor Richardson, where does this podcast find you?
0:14:19 I am in mid-coast Maine, much hotter than I have been in the last nine months up here.
0:14:20 Nice.
0:14:23 Well, let’s bust right into it here.
0:14:33 How has patriotism been redefined in recent years, and what would it look like to reclaim it in service of democracy rather than authoritarianism?
0:14:36 Well, the second half of that is easy, but let’s start with the first half of it.
0:14:56 One of the things that the Republicans did pretty effectively, really starting in the 1950s with the scare about communism, but certainly after the 1960s and the 1970s, was to identify membership in the Republican Party as being the heart of patriotism.
0:15:01 I mean, you really see this taking off under Nixon and Spiro Agnew when they deliberately polarized the country.
0:15:06 They called it positive polarization, meaning that it was positive for them because people would vote Republican.
0:15:15 And you see it really taking off under Ronald Reagan and his construction of the other people like welfare queens.
0:15:27 And once you got into talk radio in the mid-80s and then into the Fox News channel, the deliberate division of the country into two groups, one, you know, assumed to be pro-America and the other assumed to be anti-American.
0:15:31 And, you know, that picked up a lot of themes like the fight against the Vietnam War and so on.
0:15:37 But that idea that patriotism belongs to a certain party has turned out to be, you know, really quite poisonous.
0:15:48 And you see now the elevation of partisanship over country in, you know, even in things as recently as the budget reconciliation bill.
0:15:53 So there is a perversion of patriotism that we see going on around us.
0:16:02 But reclaiming a broader patriotism that shows an allegiance to the country rather than to a political party, you know, we’ve done that repeatedly in the past.
0:16:09 And the answer to that is simply to return to the foundational principles of the American democracy, the idea that we should be treated equally before the law.
0:16:13 We have a right to a say in our government and we have a right to equal access to resources.
0:16:20 Those aren’t difficult concepts and they’re the ones that have managed to create broad based political movements throughout our history.
0:16:25 What do you think Americans get wrong about how authoritarian regimes come into power?
0:16:33 And does this what other moment in history would you most equate this one to in terms of a rise of authoritarianism?
0:16:46 You know, I think a lot of Americans in the past, and I don’t think this is necessarily true any longer, but a lot of Americans in the past thought of authoritarians as people who arrived with the fanfare of the military behind them.
0:16:48 And the truth is that the military comes later.
0:16:59 The rise of an authoritarian comes from within established systems, often democratic systems, where people vote into power somebody, never who has a majority.
0:17:00 Hitler was democratically elected, no?
0:17:07 Well, yes, but, well, those authoritarians never have a majority of the population.
0:17:13 They are able to use the systems in order to turn a very small minority into a governing body.
0:17:17 So, anyway, I think we’re seeing the same thing around us now.
0:17:22 And what looks like this in the past to me is one of two things.
0:17:31 Either the 1850s and the ability of a few elite slave owners to monopolize the political system to take over the government in their own interest.
0:17:36 Or the 1890s when we saw something very similar among the giant industrialists.
0:17:40 And that, in a way, makes it easier to see ways to get out of it.
0:17:45 I often draw parallels between America now and 1930s Germany.
0:17:47 Do you think that’s a fitting comparison?
0:17:49 Both the examples you gave were from American history.
0:17:52 Well, remember, I’m an Americanist.
0:17:56 So, you know, I can speak with authority on America.
0:17:59 Any other country that I talk about is ill-informed.
0:18:05 You know, what historians do is we understand our body of work.
0:18:07 And what I do is America.
0:18:10 And my background is only partly in history.
0:18:12 You know, my master’s is in literature.
0:18:14 My degree is in American civilization.
0:18:19 So I’ve been trained in a very different way than a historian who could do comparative history, for example.
0:18:26 So, yeah, I can read the same books that Germanists read, but I don’t have the theoretical background to speak authoritatively about them.
0:18:42 What I can do is look at people like Hannah Arendt and Eric Hoffer and George Orwell and all those people who looked at the moment after the rise of Mussolini and Hitler and made broad generalizations about the kinds of populations that are susceptible to a rising authoritarian.
0:18:49 And, you know, that’s really your field, that idea of how do you market and to what population do you market?
0:18:55 The idea of giving up your rights and your privileges in order to support one guy.
0:19:01 So funny, because just as you said that, I was immediately very self-conscious about Dunning-Kruger.
0:19:03 And that is because I’ve had some success in some areas.
0:19:06 I feel it gives me license to speak about things I don’t know that much about.
0:19:13 And I very much appreciate how measured you are in acknowledging that you’re not an expert in certain fields and somewhat remiss to speak about it.
0:19:16 And that is so that is so rare in today’s age.
0:19:18 So I do appreciate that.
0:19:25 And I think it represents one of the wonderful things about academia, that that is a standard in academia, that you are supposed to stay in your own lane.
0:19:34 So, look, I’d be curious from an American viewpoint or based on your background and domain expertise.
0:19:36 So I’ll flip the question back to you.
0:19:40 Who do you think has done the best job of marketing political parties?
0:19:42 Or let me frame it this way.
0:19:43 I think the Democratic Party right now.
0:19:50 My understanding is if the election were held today, that Trump would still win handily over Vice President Harris.
0:19:54 And that the Democratic Party is less popular right now than Trump or the Republican Party.
0:20:11 And I would I would argue that a lot of that is marketing, that the Democratic Party is seen primarily as weak as a party of identity politics and a party that doesn’t really understand how to improve the material and psychological well-being of ordinary Americans.
0:20:20 But I’d love to get your view of what parties and why have been successful at marketing their own brand of politics.
0:20:27 You know, let’s start with what you just said about the Democrats, because I don’t disagree with you about the way that Democrats are perceived.
0:20:32 But that’s in part because defining the Democrats has been the business of the Republican Party.
0:20:43 And that’s, you know, through a media system that elevates the Republican voices through a construction of a certain kind of politics on the Republican side.
0:20:48 They have managed to define their opponents in ways that are completely inaccurate.
0:20:52 And the Democrats, I think, have not been able to push back against that successfully.
0:21:03 Now, you just you started by asking who has successfully marketed the kind of political positions that are the political parties that in our history.
0:21:15 And one of those groups is today’s modern Republican Party, who since at least the 1980s has billed itself as a party that’s going to dramatically increase economic growth and enable all boats to rise.
0:21:24 Remember Reagan talking about the fact that this by cutting taxes and cutting regulations, there would be such investment in the economy that would enable everybody to do better.
0:21:34 And we would be able to have increasing services, not less services, but increasing services because of the increase in tax revenue that quite literally never paid off.
0:21:42 And you’re still seeing it again with the budget reconciliation bill of just a week ago where, you know, you had Trump out there saying this is going to cause such extraordinary growth.
0:21:43 It doesn’t.
0:21:45 That simply does not work.
0:21:58 But I think they were able to sell it in part by tapping into an extraordinarily powerful mythology and a mythology that is not only part of American history, but part of sort of human literature.
0:22:09 And that was the idea of the idea of the idea that Ronald Reagan pushed so effectively in 1980 when he was in his campaign in 1980.
0:22:12 But certainly people had been doing from you before Reagan.
0:22:16 You could go back to Barry Goldwater and back to William F. Buckley Jr.
0:22:25 and back even, you know, into the years before the New Deal into fundamentalist Christianity, for example, and into all these different roots in the United States.
0:22:36 That idea of the individual fighting back against the empire is a powerful enough myth that if you think about it, in 1977, it was the heart of Star Wars.
0:22:45 That idea of the cowboy and the independent individual and so on, that’s something that a lot of Americans believed that they embodied.
0:22:49 And I think one of the things that I was just, I just had to walk over here.
0:22:54 Like I say, I really am a mid-coast Maine and I don’t have cell coverage or cable at my house.
0:22:56 So I have to, somebody lends me this place to work from.
0:23:07 And I was walking over here and I was thinking, you know, we’re seeing this now play out where a lot of people who believe that they didn’t need the government, they didn’t need taxes, they could do it all on their own,
0:23:15 are watching all the pieces of the government on which they depended being slashed and suddenly reaching a reckoning.
0:23:25 And one of the things that, to me, is intellectually interesting is what happens when people recognize that, in fact, they do need a community.
0:23:27 They do need each other.
0:23:35 Well, in the past, what we’ve gotten is the kind of cultural moment where you celebrate buddy movies or community movies.
0:23:50 You know, during World War II, Hollywood made zero Westerns and they made all those sort of World War II buddy movies or platoon movies and other things that celebrated towns and loyalties to each other.
0:23:52 Maybe we get a moment like that.
0:23:55 Maybe we get a lot of people who withdraw from politics.
0:24:00 Maybe we get an extraordinarily angry reactionary politics that supports authoritarianism.
0:24:11 But that branding of the Republican Party as the cowboy party, as the individual party, as the party of guys who could make it on their own, was extraordinarily effective.
0:24:17 And between 1981 and 2021, it moved more than $50 trillion from the bottom 90 percent to the top 1 percent.
0:24:23 So I think you have to look at that as a pretty, pretty amazing branding moment.
0:24:25 What would you do for the Democrats now?
0:24:28 Let me just say I love this conversation.
0:24:32 So when people ask, what is the strategy of America?
0:24:38 I would say if you had to distill it down to one very basic thing, since the 1980s, the strategy has been to cut taxes.
0:24:45 That it’s intoxicating to believe that the private sector, which is incredible in the United States, best private sector arguably in the world,
0:24:51 that it’s when it’s unbridled and just let to run flat out, that it’ll create so much prosperity,
0:24:55 so much so much growth that that will ultimately, quote unquote, trickle down.
0:25:06 I think that it’s just impossible if you have any reverence for data, for numbers and the pursuit of truth to not acknowledge at this point that that strategy has not worked.
0:25:17 I would argue what you’re calling the cowboy mentality is that we have embraced or conflated masculinity and strength with cruelty and coarseness.
0:25:34 That there is a certain level of censors being tickled by people who are so angry, felt like they’ve been so lied to, and that anger gets speedballed by algorithms that have a profit incentive in convincing us that your neighbor isn’t a Russian soldier pouring across the Ukrainian border,
0:25:46 or that your enemy isn’t an Islamic Republic that is threatening, you know, has a gender apartheid, or that your enemy isn’t, you know, climate change.
0:25:51 Your enemy is the guy or gal next door that doesn’t share your beliefs and that you have every right to be angry at them.
0:26:06 And that when these individuals see masked ICE agents putting their knees on the head of immigrants, that unfortunately, and I think this is terrible, there are a lot of Americans that conflate that with leadership and strength.
0:26:19 And that I’d love to lay this all at the feet of Republicans who are engaging in the slow burn towards fascism and are combined cruelty and stupidity, which adds up to depravity.
0:26:24 But I’m worried, and I want to get your thought here, and then I’ll answer the question about what I think the Democrats need to do.
0:26:42 I worry that this represents a deeper sickness in American society, that Americans are so anxious, depressed, and angry that they are acting out and they sort of appreciate or conflate this cruelty with strength and with leadership.
0:26:47 And it represents a deeper sickness in our society that is going to be tougher to fix.
0:26:48 Your thoughts?
0:26:49 Well, I agree with that.
0:26:51 And the piece that you didn’t mention is misogyny.
0:26:58 I mean, a large part of this, that what you’re talking about, is dominance, is demonstrating dominance.
0:27:03 And one of the ways it’s been easiest to demonstrate dominance in the U.S. since the 1980s is to dominate women.
0:27:16 And that, I think, is way under-talked about because the conflation of women’s rights and the modern American government is, I think, terribly underexplored.
0:27:28 Now, that being said, one of the things that I need to lay on the table, where I think you and I have a real confluence, is that I am an idealist in that, you know, as I said, what historians study is how and why societies change.
0:27:30 And different people have different ideas about it.
0:27:34 It could be the economy or mass movements or great men or religion.
0:27:37 I believe ideas change society.
0:27:40 So, and everything is subordinate to that.
0:27:41 Now, that’s just my position.
0:27:47 You know, I’m not willing to go to the death for that, you know, against somebody who believes something else.
0:27:54 But if that’s the case, then what you are identifying, and I’m not going to disagree with you about that, is not a constant.
0:28:06 It is something that has been created by a certain kind of language, which is how we communicate ideas, and by a certain kind of political system that encourages that sort of anger and hatred.
0:28:18 Because I’m going to throw back at you here that if you actually look at polls on substance, not on things that are political, but if you look at how Americans feel about abortion rights, for example.
0:28:19 They agree with us.
0:28:20 They agree with Democrats.
0:28:22 By a lot.
0:28:26 But the point is not that they agree with Democrats, but they agree with each other.
0:28:48 And that disconnect between the American people and what they believe and what they want and what they are being fed by their, I would say, national rather than state leaders primarily, that seems to me to be the place that is the fulcrum for where we are and where those of us who want to change that really should be focusing.
0:28:51 And that comes down to, I hate to say it, marketing.
0:28:53 We’ll be right back after a quick break.
0:29:02 Support for PropG comes from Vanta.
0:29:05 Starting a company is incredibly gratifying.
0:29:07 It can also be one of the hardest things you’ll ever do.
0:29:13 And one of the most challenging parts of it is making sure that you’re meeting all the security compliance standards you need to meet.
0:29:15 Vanta makes the whole process easier.
0:29:23 Vanta is a trust management platform that helps businesses automate security and compliance, enabling them to demonstrate strong security practices and scale.
0:29:30 That means that a whole bunch of tasks that used to be expensive, time-consuming, and complex can now be automated and streamlined.
0:29:39 Simply put, your company can’t grow if it can’t prove that it’s meeting security standards, including SOC 2, ISO 27001, and HIPAA.
0:29:45 Vanta can get you audit ready in weeks instead of months, saving you up to 85% of associated costs.
0:29:53 And Vanta scales with your business, helping you continuously monitor compliance, unify risk management, and streamline security reviews all in one place.
0:29:55 Starting a business is hard.
0:29:57 Let Vanta make the process a little bit easier.
0:30:02 Go to Vanta.com slash PropG to meet with a Vanta expert about your business needs.
0:30:04 That’s Vanta.com slash PropG.
0:30:12 Support for the show comes from ShipStation.
0:30:15 You know how in sci-fi shows like Star Trek, the captain just has to tell the computer,
0:30:18 T, Earl Grey hot, and poof, it appears?
0:30:26 That sounds nice, but since we’re still stuck in the 21st century, we have to get our luxuries the old-fashioned way, by ordering them online.
0:30:30 And ShipStation is here to make that process easier and more seamless than ever before.
0:30:35 ShipStation can help you automate some of the most tedious aspects of e-commerce for your small business at a fraction of the cost.
0:30:41 ShipStation offers industry-leading, scalable features that help ensure accuracy and get your shipments out the door faster,
0:30:49 so you can keep your customers happy with automated tracking updates and huge discounts off of UPS, DHL Express, USPS, and FedEx shipping rates.
0:30:54 During the time of this spot, another 1,400 packages were shipped with the help of ShipStation.
0:30:57 Upgrade to smoother shipping experience.
0:31:00 Go to ShipStation.com slash PropG to sign up for your free trial.
0:31:04 No credit card or contract required, and you can cancel any time.
0:31:07 That’s ShipStation.com slash PropG.
0:31:14 Support for the show comes from SoFi Small Business Lending.
0:31:20 You’re a small business owner, you need capital to find new opportunities and grow, and you can do that with help from SoFi.
0:31:25 You might know SoFi for student loans and high-interest savings, but now they help small businesses, too.
0:31:27 No more chasing bankers or wasting time in a branch.
0:31:31 SoFi Small Business Marketplace is your new go-to fast-end digital solution.
0:31:37 In one single simple search, SoFi matches you with vetted providers for your business in just minutes.
0:31:44 You can discover options that meet your specific needs, and if you find a quote that works for you, you may receive funds as soon as the same day you’re approved.
0:31:52 Say it’s working capital you need or a line of credit or an SBA loan or equipment financing, SoFi’s Marketplace can help you find all of the above.
0:31:56 It’s already helped thousands of small businesses find the funding they need.
0:32:05 SoFi also offers business owners curated tools, vetted business bank accounts, business credit card recommendations, and a ton of resources to help you scale your business like a boss.
0:32:08 SoFi, now helping you get your business right.
0:32:26 Two weeks ago, I was asked to address what was called the Young Democratic Caucus, which is representatives in Congress under the age of 50.
0:32:31 And I think it’s hilarious and telling that they would identify any group as young if you’re under the age of 50.
0:32:33 And this was the entire topic.
0:32:39 And I feel as if I’m kind of like, I don’t know, Luke Skywalker and you’re Yoda.
0:32:43 So I want you to correct me and edit me where you think I get this wrong.
0:32:46 But they said, how do we rebrand the Democratic Party?
0:32:53 And I said, I think the three pillars are one, restoring our alliances, alliances with our great trading partners and other democracies.
0:32:57 And the notion that somehow we’ve been taken advantage of is insane.
0:33:05 They sell us Mercedes at five points of gross margin and they get eight times EBITDA on it or they get 40 cents in value.
0:33:08 We sell them in video chips at 50 points of gross margin, of which get a 30 PE.
0:33:24 So we get $15 global trade and these unbelievable alliances pushing back on fascism in the middle of the 20th century, creating unbelievable prosperity, pushing back on Russia, pushing back on China, pushing back promoting civil rights, women’s rights.
0:33:33 This has just been amazing. These alliances have been a reflection of what it means to be human, our advantage as a species, what it means to be mammal.
0:33:41 And we need to restore alliances, most specifically in America, restore alliances between Republicans and Democrats, restore alliances between men and women.
0:33:45 The genders have done an amazing job of convincing themselves that it’s the other gender’s fault.
0:34:00 Young men believe that their dissent is a function of women’s assent, couldn’t be more wrong, and that we need to restore the greatest alliance in history and that men and women need to stop believing that it’s the other gender’s fault.
0:34:05 Young men believe, or a lot of women, unfortunately, I think, believe that men don’t have problems.
0:34:06 Young men don’t have problems.
0:34:07 They are the problem.
0:34:08 I don’t think that’s productive either.
0:34:11 The greatest alliance in history is the history between men and women.
0:34:16 Men should celebrate, promote, and protect their daughters, their wives, other women.
0:34:24 And women need to realize that their incredible progress, they will not continue to flourish if men, our young men, are floundering.
0:34:29 So my first kind of touchstone or pillar is alliances and the importance of alliances and coming together.
0:34:30 The second is inequality.
0:34:33 You lose nothing above $10 million.
0:34:40 There is no reason we shouldn’t have a 60%, 70% alternative minimum tax above $10 million.
0:34:46 Daniel Kahneman and every psychologist has shown that above a certain amount of money, it brings you no incremental happiness.
0:34:49 Restore corporate tax rates to a reasonable rate.
0:34:53 Corporations are paying the lowest tax rates since 1929.
0:34:55 Collect the taxes owed, the tax gap.
0:34:57 It’s not about tax rates.
0:34:58 It’s about the tax code.
0:35:00 Reduce the deficit.
0:35:04 Lower interest rates, which will bring down our costs on our interest rate.
0:35:06 Restore fiscal responsibility.
0:35:12 And then finally, something, and I may not have the right word here, but rather than calling it health, fitness.
0:35:15 70% of America is overweight or obese.
0:35:19 Places a huge burden on us economically in terms of a health care system.
0:35:21 Better lunch, better nutrition.
0:35:25 Put in place incentives that do away with food deserts.
0:35:28 Encourage the industrial food system to produce healthy food.
0:35:37 And some alliances, addressing income inequality and becoming the fittest, strongest nation in the world, both mentally and physically.
0:35:39 Those are kind of the three sort of policy pillars.
0:35:49 But I am very open to coaching here because I was flying on instruments trying to tell these 50 or 60 representatives which messaging I think they need to embrace.
0:35:50 Your thoughts?
0:35:55 So let me dig in a little bit to what you have suggested.
0:36:02 When you are talking about fitness, one of the problems there, of course, is our transportation systems.
0:36:07 And indeed, what you’re talking about with food deserts and the way food is distributed.
0:36:17 You know, one of the things about our food systems in the U.S. since World War II has been to provide as many calories as it is possible to provide as quickly as they can be provided.
0:36:22 Because that was the crisis that they were designed to address after the Depression.
0:36:28 So we do have these perverse incentives set up in the way that we manage, for example, surpluses.
0:36:34 But if you look at fitness, you’re not, I think, talking just about muscles.
0:36:41 You’re talking about once again, and I’m pushing on this because this is kind of my American Studies background.
0:36:47 I think you are talking about once again celebrating working hard at something.
0:36:52 That is, rather than simply having it, you work for it.
0:36:57 So, you know, being in good shape and caring about nutrition and cooking and so on, that takes work.
0:36:57 That takes effort.
0:37:00 And that’s about more than physical fitness.
0:37:11 And you mentioned, in one word, mental fitness, but I would suggest it also celebrates the idea that it’s a positive good to invest work in something.
0:37:26 And one of the things that really jumps out at me in this administration is the degree to which they sort of seem to say, well, we’re elevating those people who would otherwise be elevated if we hadn’t had to deal with civil rights initiatives, what they’re calling DEI initiatives.
0:37:31 And what that has done is we now have in place a bunch of people who have no freaking clue what they’re doing.
0:37:38 You know, the idea that they should just have these positions rather than working their way really hard to get up to them.
0:37:41 You look at somebody like Mark Milley versus Pete Hegseth.
0:37:47 And Milley, you know, is very, very, you know, very well educated, works very hard at what he does, worked his way up.
0:38:04 And then you have Hegseth, who came from the Fox News Channel, that idea of culturally, once again, celebrating hard work, education, the idea of taking control of your life, not by attacking your neighbor, but by investing in yourself.
0:38:11 That’s really very classic America that, if you think about it, was uppermost until at least the 1970s.
0:38:16 I started with something much more corny, and that was, I started with the word love.
0:38:28 And that is, anything that gets in between two people being able to get married such that they can look after each other and have a rational passion for each other’s well-being such that they don’t end up on social services.
0:38:39 Anything that inhibits a family’s ability to take care of their children and creates so much economic stress that they’re more likely than not to end up in a single-parent home.
0:38:43 And I think you can reverse engineer a lot of single-parent homes to economic stress.
0:38:54 Anything that gets in the way of people being in an ICU or an emergency room because, or being insured because they’re of sexual orientation.
0:39:07 Anything that gets in the way of a parent’s ability to stay married, to have some dignity around their children, to not have medical debt such that they have to make a choice between food for their children and diabetes.
0:39:09 But anything that gets in the way of this term love.
0:39:19 And that kind of got laughed out of the room because they thought, you’re falling into the trap of the feminization of the democratic brand, which they believe has not been helpful.
0:39:26 Any thoughts around this notion of love or empathy being a touchstone for a political movement?
0:39:33 Yes, but I have to point out to you that what you have just done is you have modernized the concept of conservatism.
0:39:50 What you are suggesting there echoes almost precisely what Edmund Burke was talking about during the French Revolution when he said that governments should not be concerned about ideologies because pretty soon leaders are busy trying to fit people into their ideologies rather than the other way around.
0:40:00 What he said was that government should focus on stability because when you have a stable government and a stable society, there is less impetus to overturn it.
0:40:08 And this is one of the reasons in his era, of course, he was interested in supporting aristocracy and the church and the family and so on.
0:40:18 But that what you just outlined is a conservative small C and not Republican and certainly not MAGA Republican, but a conservative Rockefeller Republican.
0:40:19 That’s right.
0:40:25 Eisenhower Republican, which which just again what you just outlined in this modern world sounds radical.
0:40:27 Sounds like a radical left position.
0:40:42 And this always whenever and ever anybody tells me I’m a leftist, I just laugh because quite literally the policies that you are outlining in which now would be called wildly progressive were in fact Eisenhower values.
0:40:49 And he was a Republican and not a conservative Republican, but certainly a center right, not not center to center left.
0:41:09 So my thoughts are that, first of all, that this is a conversation that really, really needs to be in the public sphere again, because it’s just common sense, you know, and it’s something that, again, the nation was united around until there was a deliberate decision to just to divide the party, to divide people along party lines.
0:41:15 And I don’t disagree with you on on any of the idea that, you know, single family homes are often economic.
0:41:23 I mean, the other thing that I find really interesting is during the Biden administration, there was a great deal of talk about how crime rates were plummeting.
0:41:35 And I thought what was interesting about that is that even the members of the administration pointed to the increased police officers that they had in which they had invested in order to make those crime rates come down.
0:41:45 But nobody that I read anyway, and I’m not a criminologist, but I did read around in this because I was very interested in it, looked at the fact that we had record low unemployment.
0:41:54 People had jobs and those jobs in the bottom 20, 20, you know, 20 percent were paying a much greater rate than they had before Biden was in office.
0:42:02 So you’re looking at that and you’re thinking, you know, if you got money, you commit fewer crimes, which is sort of logical.
0:42:11 So, yeah, I mean, I’m not going to disagree with with that at all in that concept, in your concept of fitness, in the concept of inequality.
0:42:12 Yeah.
0:42:14 You know, this is a no brainer.
0:42:16 You know, people say if I could be emperor, what would I do?
0:42:37 And the answer is I would start with getting rid of the Bush tax cuts and the and the Trump tax cuts and work on on recreating the great compression that that economists talk about where there is less of a gap both in income and in wealth between the the bottom of American society and the top of American society.
0:42:51 Not just for economic reasons, but because I think that does a whole heck of a lot more societally when there is a less of a gap between people, less of an educational gap, less of a wealth gap, less of a cultural gap and so on.
0:42:56 And I agree with you also in terms of restoring alliances for sure.
0:43:03 And it always jumps out at me, of course, that the United States was a driving factor in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
0:43:09 And here we are sending now people to, you know, a gulag in the Everglades.
0:43:17 But what I would say is that these are really difficult concepts to put into a package that can win an election.
0:43:20 I think people feel on vibes that these are right.
0:43:30 But what I think about packaging, not the Democrats necessarily, because we’re in this really interesting moment where the political parties are breaking down.
0:43:36 Certainly the names may remain, but what they look what the internals look like are going to be very different.
0:43:48 And that’s what I’m interested in is watching these conversations take place all over the country among people who are not necessarily in elected office or aiming for elected office where they are redefining what they would like America to be.
0:44:06 One of the things that jumps out to me when you define America is less the idea of alliances or less the idea of love and more the idea that what America has stood for historically is the idea that if you are willing to work hard, you can create a better life for yourself and your children.
0:44:11 And everything flows from that.
0:44:27 Now, the way that you talk about that, though, and again, that we have done historically, notably in the 1950s, 1940s, 1930s, the late 1890s, early 2000 and aughts, and in the 1870s and before that is by saying we’re in this together.
0:44:31 We are a community that we are a community that works together and that we are not divided.
0:44:49 And again, you used to see that in the 1940s, 1950s, and so on in movies, for example, in Superman, in Frank Sinatra’s The House Where I Lived, the film about how he was dead set against religious discrimination in the United States.
0:44:59 That is something that strikes me as being marketable, not least because you can plug into it our greatest moments in our history.
0:45:16 So just along the lines of Magic Wand and being an emperor, some of the lowest levels of young adult and teen depression are in Israel, despite all the existential threats surrounding them, and amongst young Mormons.
0:45:24 And the thing I find that’s true among both those groups, and again, I might be backfilling a narrative here, is I think restoring mandatory national service.
0:45:32 You talked about how people kind of saw themselves as Americans first before Republicans or Democrats, or maybe I’m putting words in your mouth, in the 60s or 70s.
0:45:34 But I think a lot of that was because they’d served in the same uniform.
0:45:44 What do you think of the idea of mandatory national service where Americans from different ethnic, demographic, and income and sexual orientation backgrounds could see each other?
0:45:46 And I’m not just talking about the military.
0:45:52 I’m talking about senior care, smoke jumpers, you know, forest reclamation, whatever it might be.
0:46:01 But you’re going to spend 12 to 24 months working alongside a group of random Americans realizing that you need to work in the agency of something bigger than yourself, and that thing is the United States.
0:46:03 12%.
0:46:10 But I’m going to add a reason for that, and that is, of course, having come through a university system.
0:46:17 In modern America, a lot of young people are not really ready to make adult decisions when they leave home.
0:46:29 They need to spend time literally just learning how to live with other people or learning how to be on their own and managing, you know, their schedules and, crucially, figuring out what they want to do.
0:46:31 Especially boys.
0:46:32 I’m going to be a sexist.
0:46:33 Especially boys.
0:46:34 Do you have kids, Professor?
0:46:35 Three of them.
0:46:41 Yeah, biologically, 18-year-old boys are 18 months behind their prefrontal cortex development.
0:46:50 When my 14- and 17-year-olds have friends over, the boys are dopes, and some of the girls look like they could be the junior senator from Pennsylvania.
0:46:52 I think this would be especially important for young men.
0:47:03 It’s easy to be sexist when you’re favoring the female gender, but I really do think there is a marked difference between the maturity levels of boys coming out of high school and girls coming out of high school.
0:47:15 Well, and just the opportunity to work in different ways with different people would open up, I think, a lot of people to professions that they might not otherwise have considered.
0:47:29 And that, you know, I always think back on a student I had who was in college, I’m trying to be vague here, because of his extraordinary sport ability, which was great, I’m sure.
0:47:38 But he discovered his senior year that he was actually really, really good at history, is how he came across my screen.
0:47:42 And he was just really starting to get it.
0:47:55 And I said to him, you know, we talked about this, and he really had gone to school to play sports, and he was planning to go back to work in construction where he had come from.
0:48:07 And yet, had he had a couple of years, he might have discovered that he was as good as he was at history before he was graduating.
0:48:19 And it always has kind of stuck with me that he’s somebody who could have really benefited from a, not a gap year, because it’s going to take people six months just to get their feet under them, as it does in college.
0:48:23 But a gap two years seems to me to be simply a no-brainer.
0:48:25 Lots of other countries do it.
0:48:26 My nephews who live in Europe did it.
0:48:34 And I would love to see that, both for the reasons you suggest, but also because developmentally, it just seems like it makes such good sense.
0:48:40 You were generous asking my thoughts on how to rebrand or brand the Democratic Party.
0:48:41 I’ll flip the question back to you.
0:48:43 What do you think would be the right messaging or platform for Democrats?
0:48:49 So this is a little hard for me, because as I say, I don’t really think in this moment as Republicans versus Democrats.
0:48:52 I actually think in this moment of the MAGA Republicans.
0:48:53 I need your help more, Professor.
0:48:56 We’re up against the rope.
0:48:58 And quite frankly, we’re getting the shit kicked out of us.
0:49:09 So to the best of your ability, if you were channeling Democrats, what would you suggest is the real opportunity or white space for Democrats right now?
0:49:14 OK, so where I was going with that is that I will tell you the branding that I would do.
0:49:18 And it seems to me something the Democrats could jump on, should jump on.
0:49:30 But it’s not saying, here’s a party I want to market, because I think in this moment it’s going to be important to recognize that the anti-MAGA party is not just Democrats, including in the way people think about certain issues.
0:49:41 Some people still vote Republican because it is ingrained in them to have an R after their name, but they are, in fact, quite open to the idea of the kinds of things you and I are talking about.
0:49:43 So here’s what I would say.
0:49:56 And my model is Abraham Lincoln, who was living through a very similar moment when two older parties were falling apart and you had the rise of a reactionary right elite that was trying to get rid of American democracy
0:50:00 and create a system in which the government answered only to them.
0:50:05 And this is, of course, the elite enslavers who wanted to spread human enslavement across the American West.
0:50:12 They’re establishing slave states that could work with the southern slave states to get rid of free states all over the country.
0:50:14 So what happened in that moment?
0:50:20 And you have to remember here always that the people who could vote in the United States in that period were all white men,
0:50:26 almost all of whom were virulently racist and didn’t really care at all about black rights.
0:50:36 The way Lincoln managed to create a coalition that could restore American democracy was continually to go back to the Declaration of Independence
0:50:42 and to say repeatedly, either we are all created equal or we are not.
0:50:45 And if we are not, we need to tear up the Declaration of Independence.
0:50:51 And when he did that, even in the southern parts of Illinois, for example, during the Lincoln-Douglas debates,
0:50:57 even Democrats who were virulently racist would say, no, no, no, that’s what we stand for.
0:51:10 And I think one of the things that is important to do in this moment is continually to highlight the principles on which people who live in the United States have stood on democracy and expanded democracy.
0:51:18 And what is so exciting about that for someone like me is that while I just invoked Lincoln because he was very, very self-conscious about what he was doing,
0:51:24 and often if I can’t figure out how to address something, I will think, what would Lincoln have done in terms of principles?
0:51:34 But if you think about someone like Fannie Lou Hamer or Dolores Huerta or Dr. Hector Garcia or Dr. King or, you know,
0:51:44 any of these people who were parts of marginalized populations used those concepts to expand rights in the United States
0:51:50 and bring more people under the umbrella of the idea that they could have control over their destinies.
0:51:56 And I think that’s a touchstone that resonates with all American populations
0:52:05 and one that we have not taken sufficient advantage of in the years that we have really stopped teaching the real meat of American history.
0:52:16 And I would argue that the popularity of the stuff I write is in part indicative of an extraordinary hunger for people to feel that they are part of that larger story
0:52:19 of human self-determination and of the United States of America.
0:52:25 I see more and more people now starting to do it, starting to talk about it, more politicians doing it.
0:52:36 But I think that is crucial to building a mass movement that can overaw the kind of rising fascism that you’re seeing among MAGA Republicans.
0:52:40 We’ll be right back.
0:52:48 Support for the show comes from LinkedIn.
0:52:51 One of the hardest parts about moving to a new city is finding your people.
0:52:55 You can look far and wide, but it’s hard to find the people who just get you.
0:52:58 And the same goes for you to be marketers.
0:53:04 Locating the right people who align with your business and an audience that connects with your product and your mission can make all the difference.
0:53:07 But instead of spending hours and hours scavenging social media feeds,
0:53:10 you can just tap LinkedIn ads to reach the right professionals.
0:53:16 According to LinkedIn, they have grown to a network of over a billion professionals, making it stand apart from other ad buys.
0:53:22 You can target your buyers by job title, industry, company role, seniority skills, and company revenue,
0:53:26 giving you all of the professionals you need to reach in one place.
0:53:32 So, you can stop wasting budget on the wrong audience and start targeting the right professionals only on LinkedIn ads.
0:53:36 LinkedIn will even give you $100 credit on your next campaign so you can try it yourself.
0:53:39 Just go to linkedin.com slash Scott.
0:53:42 That’s linkedin.com slash Scott.
0:53:43 Terms and conditions apply.
0:53:44 Only on LinkedIn ads.
0:54:10 We’re back with more from Heather Cox Richardson.
0:54:14 So, let’s bring it to present day.
0:54:20 You’ve called Trump’s MAGA bill the capstone of MAGA’s six-month transformation of the U.S. government.
0:54:24 Do you think we’re witnessing the cementing of illiberalism?
0:54:29 And you’ve also said this is sort of the signature Republican legislation of this millennium thus far.
0:54:31 Your thoughts?
0:54:34 Well, I will answer that.
0:54:36 But let me ask you, what do you think of that budget reconciliation bill?
0:54:42 I think it’s the largest transfer of wealth in history from the future to the past,
0:54:46 from the poor to the rich, from the young to the old.
0:54:49 I think it’s, not to be too dramatic here,
0:54:51 but when I look at my success, Professor,
0:54:56 it’s built on these pillars of access to family planning for my mother,
0:55:00 assisted lunch programs when I was in elementary school,
0:55:06 access to deep pools of capital to start companies based on rule of law,
0:55:10 access to wonderful, talented immigrants who built my companies.
0:55:20 You know, the fact that my mother was able to survive in Britain,
0:55:22 sleeping as a four-year-old Jew in a bomb shelter,
0:55:29 that America decided to convert its car factories to tank factories to push back on fascism.
0:55:33 I mean, I’m so personally, quite frankly,
0:55:36 and you can probably hear the emotion in my voice,
0:55:44 just so rattled by this because I feel it is setting on fire all the pillars of my prosperity and success.
0:55:53 Well, and that, I think, is what I was getting at with the idea that this was the capstone of the past six years.
0:55:58 It’s also the capstone, in many ways, of the Republican project since Reagan,
0:56:00 which is to blow up the social safety net.
0:56:03 But it’s not, I call it a capstone in part because, of course,
0:56:07 that’s what the Department of Government Efficiency was also designed to do.
0:56:10 And that the idea of the rescissions,
0:56:12 the clawing back of the money that has already been appropriated,
0:56:14 the impoundments, and so on,
0:56:18 the idea is to shred the modern American state.
0:56:24 But what interests, I mean, what interests me is the wrong way to put it,
0:56:28 but what is replacing it, as I say,
0:56:34 is the idea that somehow we’re going to go back to a better past,
0:56:36 which, by the way, is a very fascist concept.
0:56:41 But there doesn’t seem to be any real idea of what that looks like.
0:56:44 So, for example, these Trump tariffs,
0:56:49 the idea that this is suddenly going to make everybody rich is just a complete fantasy.
0:56:52 It is a complete fantasy, or the fact that Brooke Rollins,
0:56:57 the head of the Agriculture Department today,
0:57:01 said that when we get rid of the undocumented immigrants
0:57:04 who are actually working in the agricultural field,
0:57:08 that we can simply replace them with the people who are on Medicaid.
0:57:13 You know, that’s just such a far-fetched image
0:57:15 of what the future could look like in a country
0:57:19 that has, since the very development of Western agriculture
0:57:22 in the 1880s and 1890s,
0:57:24 depended on migrant labor.
0:57:27 I mean, there’s just, there’s nothing on the other side
0:57:32 that suggests the survival of American democracy.
0:57:34 And so I think what you’re looking at
0:57:36 is the rise, as I say, of authoritarianism,
0:57:38 one guy to run everything.
0:57:41 But as we’re looking at that,
0:57:42 and as I alluded to earlier,
0:57:47 will 334 million Americans say,
0:57:48 oh, I was conned, it’s okay.
0:57:50 Or will they say,
0:57:52 this is not the country I wanted.
0:57:54 And this is one of the reasons
0:57:56 that conservatism developed,
0:57:58 actually, to go back to that theme,
0:58:00 because what they are creating
0:58:02 is extraordinary instability,
0:58:04 just extraordinary instability.
0:58:06 And of course, with that bill,
0:58:08 we now have a massively expanded ICE
0:58:10 and border patrol system
0:58:12 that is, in fact,
0:58:13 a standing army in the U.S.,
0:58:15 a militarized state in the U.S.
0:58:19 But is that going to be enough
0:58:22 to maintain a dictator
0:58:25 or a quasi-dictator
0:58:28 from the MAGA wing in power going forward?
0:58:30 I think I have too much faith
0:58:31 in the American people
0:58:32 to believe that’s going to be the case.
0:58:33 What do you think?
0:58:36 Well, I’m a bit of a catastrophist
0:58:38 and a glass half-empty kind of guy,
0:58:39 as you’ve probably figured out.
0:58:41 So I immediately draw conclusions
0:58:44 or parallels with the Gestapo
0:58:46 that was 32,000 people.
0:58:47 I think ICE is 22.
0:58:48 They spent $2 billion.
0:58:50 We’re spending $12 billion.
0:58:51 It was meant to be
0:58:52 an administrative body
0:58:53 focusing on documentation
0:58:55 and border forms.
0:58:56 And instead, it’s turned into what I,
0:58:58 as far as I can tell,
0:59:00 is a series of pageantry and fear
0:59:04 meant to exhibit strength
0:59:05 and also scare people.
0:59:08 And my father always used to say to me
0:59:09 when I would compare Trump to Hitler,
0:59:10 you’ve got to keep in mind, Scott,
0:59:12 Trump had his own private army.
0:59:13 And as far as I can tell,
0:59:14 ICE is a private army
0:59:15 for the current administration.
0:59:18 So I find it frightening.
0:59:20 And when I think of just
0:59:22 taking out the moral argument
0:59:23 and the historical parallels,
0:59:27 you know, the notion somehow
0:59:28 that we need to get rid
0:59:29 of these immigrants
0:59:31 such that more Americans
0:59:32 have better jobs
0:59:32 and higher paid,
0:59:35 it’s just so stupid.
0:59:38 If you want to talk about,
0:59:40 imagine that millions of immigrants
0:59:41 pouring over the border right now,
0:59:42 it’s called AI.
0:59:45 AI has a much bigger threat
0:59:47 to people’s livelihoods
0:59:48 than the person taking care
0:59:49 of your aging mother
0:59:50 or serving,
0:59:51 you know,
0:59:52 or working at the Chick-fil-A.
0:59:54 And the notion somehow
0:59:55 that American wages
0:59:56 are going to go up,
0:59:56 all that’s going to happen
0:59:57 is our expenses are going to go up.
0:59:59 And what I find most telling
0:59:59 about these raids
1:00:01 is they’re raiding Home Depot
1:00:01 churches and schools.
1:00:03 And maybe that’s an indication
1:00:03 that these are the kind of people
1:00:04 we want here.
1:00:06 And then just being
1:00:07 very unemotional about it.
1:00:09 Immigration,
1:00:09 people are often
1:00:10 very comfortable saying
1:00:11 immigration is the lifeblood
1:00:12 of our success.
1:00:13 What I don’t think
1:00:14 they’re in touch with
1:00:15 is that the most profitable
1:00:16 part of immigration
1:00:17 has been undocumented
1:00:17 immigration
1:00:19 because they’re
1:00:20 a flexible workforce
1:00:21 that pays taxes
1:00:21 and then doesn’t stick around
1:00:22 for social services
1:00:24 and melts back
1:00:25 sometimes to their
1:00:26 original host country
1:00:27 when the crops are picked
1:00:29 or that work dries up.
1:00:30 And the reason why
1:00:32 we have put up with this
1:00:33 or tolerated it
1:00:34 is because we recognize
1:00:34 it’s an incredible
1:00:35 economic advantage
1:00:37 to have this flexible workforce.
1:00:38 So, you know,
1:00:38 again,
1:00:39 I go back to Germany,
1:00:40 the demonization
1:00:41 of immigrants.
1:00:42 I just,
1:00:43 it economically
1:00:44 makes no sense.
1:00:45 It’s morally reprehensible.
1:00:47 And I am uncomfortable
1:00:48 with a private army
1:00:50 an army that will have
1:00:51 a greater funding budget
1:00:53 than at the FBI
1:00:54 who is responsible
1:00:55 for white collar crimes
1:00:55 and terrorism.
1:00:56 We’ve decided
1:00:58 to allocate more resources
1:00:58 to a private army
1:00:59 of people
1:01:00 who have to wear masks.
1:01:01 You know,
1:01:03 they’re not only wearing,
1:01:04 they’re not only wearing
1:01:06 a certain color shirt
1:01:07 or insignias
1:01:08 as armbands,
1:01:09 they’re wearing masks
1:01:10 because of what they’re doing
1:01:11 is so,
1:01:12 in my view,
1:01:12 un-American.
1:01:14 So I find ICE
1:01:14 another,
1:01:15 you know,
1:01:18 incredibly disturbing.
1:01:19 Your thoughts?
1:01:19 I agree.
1:01:21 I totally agree with that.
1:01:21 Well,
1:01:23 my point was just
1:01:24 I’m not entirely sure
1:01:25 that in a country
1:01:26 of this size
1:01:28 they are going to be able
1:01:29 to get the kind of control
1:01:30 that somebody could
1:01:31 in a smaller country
1:01:32 like Germany was
1:01:33 in 1933.
1:01:34 So,
1:01:35 you know,
1:01:36 I think you’re right
1:01:37 that this is pageantry,
1:01:39 that a lot of it so far
1:01:40 is pageantry designed,
1:01:41 first of all,
1:01:42 to terrorize immigrants,
1:01:45 but also to terrorize
1:01:46 other Americans
1:01:48 into not speaking up.
1:01:49 And that’s the piece
1:01:50 that I am not convinced
1:01:51 is necessarily going to work.
1:01:52 And by the way,
1:01:53 I didn’t mean in any way
1:01:56 to downplay the terror
1:01:57 and the damage
1:01:58 and the torture even
1:01:59 that immigrants
1:02:00 and migrants
1:02:02 are going through
1:02:03 in this.
1:02:03 I’m trying to look
1:02:05 at the larger picture here
1:02:06 and what the Trump administration
1:02:07 is trying to do.
1:02:07 So I don’t disagree
1:02:08 with you at all
1:02:09 on that,
1:02:10 but I’m just saying
1:02:12 I’m not entirely sure
1:02:12 it’s going to work.
1:02:15 This is an extraordinarily
1:02:18 unstable administration.
1:02:19 Trump himself
1:02:20 is not in good shape.
1:02:21 J.D. Vance,
1:02:22 the heir apparent,
1:02:26 commands no real voting base.
1:02:28 Increasingly,
1:02:29 the wheels are coming
1:02:30 off the bus
1:02:31 as FEMA can’t respond
1:02:32 to things,
1:02:33 as the tariffs
1:02:34 are starting to kick in,
1:02:36 as prices are going up.
1:02:37 You know,
1:02:38 it is,
1:02:39 you know,
1:02:40 I guess what I keep saying
1:02:41 is I think we’re going
1:02:42 into a period
1:02:44 of extraordinary instability
1:02:46 and I am not convinced
1:02:48 that the outcome of that
1:02:48 is going to be
1:02:49 a dictatorship.
1:02:52 It could just as easily be
1:02:53 that the outcome of it
1:02:54 is a renewed
1:02:55 American democracy,
1:02:56 but it’s going to be
1:02:56 messy,
1:02:57 messy,
1:02:58 messy either way.
1:03:00 I love your vision.
1:03:02 I always jokingly say
1:03:02 in my companies,
1:03:03 there’s been all these people
1:03:04 that are kind of invisible
1:03:05 until they fuck up,
1:03:06 and that is the person
1:03:07 running the accounting,
1:03:08 the person running the events,
1:03:10 that they’re not appreciated
1:03:11 until something goes wrong.
1:03:12 And I feel that a lot
1:03:13 of Americans are coming
1:03:14 to grips with the fact
1:03:15 that there’s a lot
1:03:15 of people,
1:03:16 hydrologists,
1:03:16 meteorologists,
1:03:17 the TSA,
1:03:19 working who are invisible
1:03:20 until there’s a disaster.
1:03:22 And that some of this
1:03:22 long-term thinking
1:03:23 and investment
1:03:24 and boring jobs
1:03:25 are actually really important.
1:03:27 And that they’re going
1:03:28 to learn very painfully
1:03:29 that these things matter
1:03:31 and that immigrants
1:03:32 play a key role
1:03:34 and that an autocracy,
1:03:34 a strongman,
1:03:36 I love your vision.
1:03:38 I’m worried that this
1:03:39 is the first step
1:03:41 towards a darker period
1:03:43 where we have a lot
1:03:44 of young men
1:03:44 who are struggling,
1:03:45 don’t have a lot
1:03:46 of economic
1:03:47 or romantic prospects,
1:03:51 are looking for scapegoats
1:03:55 to justify their problems.
1:03:57 And that we’re one economic shock
1:04:00 away from an authoritarian government
1:04:01 that gets even uglier.
1:04:02 And we already have,
1:04:03 you know,
1:04:04 you call it a gulag,
1:04:06 I call them concentration camps.
1:04:07 Concentration camps,
1:04:08 one of the definitions
1:04:09 is a camp outside
1:04:11 of the host territory
1:04:12 such that the individuals
1:04:13 shipped to these places
1:04:14 don’t have the rights
1:04:15 they would in their own
1:04:17 domestic environment.
1:04:18 We’re already there.
1:04:19 We have demonization
1:04:19 of immigrants.
1:04:21 We have militarization
1:04:22 of civil agencies.
1:04:24 We have a disrespect
1:04:25 for some of the institutions.
1:04:27 They always attack
1:04:28 the academics.
1:04:28 Why?
1:04:30 Because you and I,
1:04:31 you’re what I’d call
1:04:32 a hardcore,
1:04:32 real,
1:04:33 legitimate academic.
1:04:35 I’m short of showing up
1:04:36 and doing a rich little version
1:04:37 of academics
1:04:38 and that is I teach.
1:04:39 But you,
1:04:40 quite frankly,
1:04:41 you just have much deeper
1:04:42 domain expertise than me.
1:04:44 And I find that
1:04:46 common across all
1:04:47 moves towards fascism
1:04:48 is to attack universities.
1:04:49 Why?
1:04:50 Because at the end of the day,
1:04:51 you especially,
1:04:52 but also I’ll include myself
1:04:53 in this crowd,
1:04:54 we teach young people
1:04:55 to ask why.
1:04:57 And they don’t want
1:04:58 young people
1:04:59 and intelligent people
1:05:00 asking why.
1:05:01 They want them
1:05:02 feeling things.
1:05:03 And so I worry
1:05:04 that there’s a fork
1:05:05 in the road here,
1:05:07 but one potential
1:05:08 left turn here
1:05:09 could be much darker.
1:05:10 And I look back
1:05:11 at Germany again
1:05:11 in the 30s,
1:05:12 an incredibly
1:05:14 progressive society,
1:05:15 pro-gay,
1:05:16 civil rights,
1:05:17 appreciation for immigrants,
1:05:19 appreciation for academics,
1:05:20 and then
1:05:22 a descent into darkness.
1:05:23 And I worry
1:05:24 that that same
1:05:26 opportunity for darkness
1:05:28 is available to us.
1:05:29 And then
1:05:30 everyone talks about
1:05:30 institutions,
1:05:31 the courts,
1:05:32 the universities.
1:05:33 And what I like
1:05:34 about what you’re saying
1:05:35 is it’s beyond
1:05:36 institutions,
1:05:37 it’s people.
1:05:38 It’s the judges
1:05:39 got to stand up.
1:05:41 Academics got to be fearless,
1:05:42 such as you have been
1:05:44 and smart and thoughtful.
1:05:45 People, employers
1:05:47 have to stand up
1:05:48 for their employees.
1:05:49 You know,
1:05:51 I’m very disappointed
1:05:52 that the technology community,
1:05:52 some of the people
1:05:53 I hang out with
1:05:54 who are incredibly blessed
1:05:55 not speaking up
1:05:56 about their blessings,
1:05:58 that we keep talking
1:05:58 about institutions
1:05:59 under attack.
1:06:01 I think that’s true.
1:06:02 What I find so disappointing
1:06:03 about this, Professor,
1:06:05 is that not more people
1:06:06 are speaking up
1:06:07 when you have
1:06:07 billionaire owners
1:06:08 of media companies
1:06:10 paying off
1:06:11 the administration
1:06:11 under the threat
1:06:12 of a legal case
1:06:13 that they would win.
1:06:14 When you have
1:06:16 legal firms
1:06:17 saying we will provide
1:06:18 basically bending a knee
1:06:19 and ignoring
1:06:20 all the principles
1:06:21 of our basic
1:06:22 judicial system,
1:06:23 I worry that not
1:06:25 enough individuals
1:06:26 are standing up.
1:06:26 Because at the end of the day,
1:06:27 these institutions
1:06:29 are made up of people.
1:06:31 So I’m more worried
1:06:32 about a darker
1:06:33 fork in the road here.
1:06:34 Well, I’m worried
1:06:35 about that darker
1:06:35 fork in the road,
1:06:37 but I also recognize
1:06:38 that there is no way
1:06:39 forward
1:06:40 except doing it.
1:06:41 There’s no way through
1:06:43 but going forward.
1:06:44 And so one of the things
1:06:45 I’m trying to do
1:06:47 is find a way
1:06:47 to get people
1:06:49 on the brighter path
1:06:50 rather than the darker path
1:06:50 because, you know,
1:06:51 the thing is,
1:06:52 as a historian,
1:06:53 we know how this plays out.
1:06:54 We know exactly
1:06:55 how this plays out.
1:06:58 And one of the things
1:07:00 that just gobsmacks me
1:07:01 is that knowing
1:07:02 what we know
1:07:05 and how these situations
1:07:05 play out,
1:07:07 that people
1:07:08 in the administration
1:07:10 would be trying it
1:07:10 yet again
1:07:11 and people would be
1:07:12 getting behind them
1:07:13 because, again,
1:07:14 I can write that script.
1:07:16 I really can write
1:07:16 that script.
1:07:17 But I can also write
1:07:18 the other script
1:07:20 in which people reject
1:07:21 that version
1:07:22 of our future
1:07:23 and pick a different one.
1:07:25 And that’s the one
1:07:26 that I’m working for.
1:07:27 I do have a question
1:07:28 for you.
1:07:29 You mentioned something
1:07:30 a second ago
1:07:31 that sparked an idea
1:07:32 for me
1:07:32 that I would love
1:07:33 to hear you
1:07:34 expand on
1:07:35 a little bit more.
1:07:37 I have been sitting here
1:07:38 looking at
1:07:41 the reduced numbers
1:07:42 of undocumented
1:07:43 and documented
1:07:44 migrants in the United States
1:07:45 and saying to myself,
1:07:47 where are they going
1:07:48 to find ways
1:07:49 to replace them?
1:07:49 And I’m looking
1:07:50 at child labor,
1:07:50 for example,
1:07:51 or now this idea
1:07:52 that people on Medicaid
1:07:53 are going to work
1:07:53 in the fields
1:07:54 or whatever.
1:07:55 Do you think
1:07:57 that what they are doing,
1:07:59 what the administration,
1:08:00 to be clear,
1:08:00 is doing,
1:08:02 is recognizing
1:08:03 that AI
1:08:04 is going to wipe out
1:08:05 a ton of jobs
1:08:06 and setting up
1:08:07 the idea
1:08:08 that those jobs
1:08:09 are not the fault
1:08:10 of those people
1:08:10 pushing AI,
1:08:12 which is a problematic
1:08:13 and maybe someday
1:08:14 we can talk about
1:08:15 what AI entails
1:08:16 for the United States,
1:08:17 but that rather
1:08:18 than saying
1:08:20 this billionaire
1:08:21 puts you out of business,
1:08:22 they’re trying
1:08:22 to convince
1:08:23 a lot of people
1:08:24 who will be unemployed
1:08:26 that their problem
1:08:27 is the gardener
1:08:28 or is the woman
1:08:29 doing health care.
1:08:29 Is that,
1:08:30 do you think,
1:08:31 a deliberate sleight of hand?
1:08:33 For me,
1:08:33 the logic
1:08:34 just isn’t sequential
1:08:35 or doesn’t add up
1:08:36 because the people
1:08:37 they’re going after
1:08:37 are exactly
1:08:38 the kinds of jobs
1:08:39 that AI,
1:08:40 some of the few sectors
1:08:42 that AI can’t replace.
1:08:44 AI still hasn’t figured
1:08:44 out a way
1:08:47 to wake your grandmother up
1:08:48 and bring her her medication.
1:08:50 AI still can’t
1:08:51 give you physical therapy.
1:08:53 AI still can’t,
1:08:53 you still need
1:08:55 people on construction sites.
1:08:56 You still need people
1:08:58 harvesting crops.
1:08:59 I just don’t,
1:09:00 you know,
1:09:01 I mean,
1:09:01 AI could potentially
1:09:03 replace a lot of Uber drivers
1:09:04 and a lot of truck drivers,
1:09:05 but what I see
1:09:07 is that
1:09:08 who AI is replacing
1:09:10 is my kids.
1:09:11 When I say my kids,
1:09:12 my second year MBA graduates,
1:09:13 I was,
1:09:14 my first job out of college
1:09:15 was at Morgan Stanley
1:09:16 as an analyst.
1:09:17 They hired 80 analysts.
1:09:18 I’m convinced
1:09:19 all the work I did
1:09:20 in two years
1:09:20 in fixed income
1:09:21 as an analyst
1:09:23 at Morgan Stanley
1:09:24 could be done
1:09:25 in about six weeks
1:09:25 now with AI.
1:09:27 So the notion somehow
1:09:28 that this,
1:09:30 if they really wanted,
1:09:31 I see the presidency
1:09:33 as just a capital allocated
1:09:34 and that his job is to,
1:09:35 or her job is to,
1:09:36 allocate capital
1:09:37 to a greater return
1:09:37 than another leader
1:09:38 who has capital
1:09:39 at their disposal
1:09:40 and taking $12 billion
1:09:42 to round up immigrants
1:09:43 who are taxpayers
1:09:43 and,
1:09:44 you know,
1:09:45 during the day
1:09:46 at work
1:09:46 and on weekends
1:09:47 and evenings
1:09:48 at school
1:09:49 and at church,
1:09:50 that makes no sense to me.
1:09:51 If you really were concerned
1:09:52 about employment,
1:09:53 you’d be deploying
1:09:55 vocational programs
1:09:55 and more critical
1:09:56 thinking skills
1:09:56 such that people
1:09:57 could embrace
1:09:58 these new technologies
1:09:59 and also embrace
1:10:00 more self-sufficiency
1:10:01 and energy
1:10:02 and shovel-ready jobs.
1:10:02 I mean,
1:10:03 we need more
1:10:04 healthcare workers,
1:10:04 more people
1:10:05 who understand
1:10:06 how to install
1:10:07 energy-efficient
1:10:08 HVAC computers,
1:10:10 build nuclear power plants.
1:10:10 I mean,
1:10:11 that to me
1:10:12 is where you would help
1:10:15 with the employment picture.
1:10:15 But,
1:10:17 look,
1:10:18 you’ve been so generous
1:10:19 with your time.
1:10:19 I just want to,
1:10:21 I want to have,
1:10:23 I want you to just touch
1:10:24 on one thing
1:10:25 that’s very close
1:10:25 to my heart
1:10:26 and that is,
1:10:27 I work,
1:10:28 I think a lot
1:10:29 about technology
1:10:29 and something
1:10:30 that’s just
1:10:30 so extraordinarily
1:10:31 disappointing to me
1:10:33 is that these
1:10:34 are the most blessed
1:10:34 people in the world
1:10:35 as far as I can tell.
1:10:36 If you look at
1:10:37 the majority of them,
1:10:37 you know,
1:10:38 there’s some,
1:10:39 there’s absolutely
1:10:40 some great stories
1:10:40 of immigrants
1:10:41 and people
1:10:41 playing themselves
1:10:42 by their bootstraps.
1:10:44 20% of the NASDAQ
1:10:45 is not only immigrants
1:10:46 by market cap,
1:10:47 it’s Indian immigrants.
1:10:49 And there’s
1:10:50 some wonderful stories.
1:10:51 But a lot of these kids
1:10:53 came from privileged backgrounds.
1:10:54 Whether it was Bill Gates
1:10:54 or Mark Zuckerberg,
1:10:55 they dropped out of Harvard
1:10:56 because they could.
1:10:58 And they got into Harvard
1:10:59 because they could.
1:11:00 And yet it feels like
1:11:02 the most blessed among us,
1:11:03 specifically these tech billionaires,
1:11:04 are the first ones,
1:11:04 quite frankly,
1:11:05 to shitpost America
1:11:06 and talk about
1:11:06 some weird
1:11:08 techno-libertarian vision
1:11:09 that makes absolutely
1:11:10 no sense to me.
1:11:11 And a lot of people
1:11:12 draw conclusions
1:11:13 with the Gilded Age.
1:11:14 And I know you’ve looked
1:11:15 at the Gilded Age.
1:11:15 And I would just love
1:11:17 to get your thoughts
1:11:18 on the parallels
1:11:20 between the Gilded Age
1:11:21 and kind of this
1:11:23 technotopia
1:11:24 or whatever you’d want
1:11:25 to call it
1:11:26 and what we can learn
1:11:26 from it
1:11:27 and where you think
1:11:28 it goes from here.
1:11:30 I’m actually really glad
1:11:31 you asked that
1:11:32 because I think a lot
1:11:33 about that,
1:11:35 including in the ideology
1:11:37 of the modern-day tech people
1:11:39 because of the parallels
1:11:41 it has with the 1880s
1:11:42 and 1890s especially
1:11:44 because things were changing
1:11:46 by the actual turn
1:11:47 of the century.
1:11:49 What I think happens
1:11:51 is that people
1:11:53 begin to
1:11:55 internalize
1:11:56 their belief
1:11:57 that they are better
1:11:58 than other people,
1:11:59 that they have done
1:12:00 something extraordinarily clever.
1:12:02 And often,
1:12:03 I just want to add this here,
1:12:04 I will follow that thought,
1:12:06 but often there is
1:12:07 a generational change
1:12:08 inherent there.
1:12:09 That is,
1:12:10 the first generation
1:12:11 will say it
1:12:12 but not really mean it.
1:12:13 They’re saying it
1:12:14 either to pump themselves up
1:12:15 or for political advantage.
1:12:17 but their sons,
1:12:18 because it’s almost always sons,
1:12:20 actually believe it.
1:12:21 So in the 1890s,
1:12:21 for example,
1:12:22 you see coming out
1:12:23 of the Civil War
1:12:24 a whole bunch of people
1:12:25 in the American South
1:12:26 talking about how
1:12:27 black Americans
1:12:28 are inherently not
1:12:30 as able
1:12:31 as white Americans,
1:12:32 as Euro-Americans,
1:12:32 and therefore,
1:12:33 they should not have a say
1:12:34 in American society.
1:12:36 They used it really
1:12:37 as a political argument
1:12:38 for that first generation.
1:12:40 The second generation
1:12:42 believes that they are better,
1:12:43 that white men
1:12:44 are better than black men
1:12:45 and certainly than
1:12:45 other black people
1:12:46 and they are willing
1:12:47 to enforce that
1:12:48 through lynching.
1:12:50 So that generational shift
1:12:51 really matters.
1:12:53 But that being said,
1:12:54 I do think there is
1:12:55 this idea
1:12:57 that as people succeed
1:12:58 and as they spend time
1:12:59 with other people
1:12:59 who succeed,
1:13:01 they start to believe
1:13:02 that they are,
1:13:02 in fact,
1:13:03 better than other people
1:13:04 and they,
1:13:05 especially men,
1:13:07 tend to erase
1:13:08 the reality
1:13:08 of how they got
1:13:09 to be where they are
1:13:10 and they set out
1:13:12 to create a system
1:13:13 that they think
1:13:14 advantages them
1:13:15 in such a way
1:13:16 that they will do good
1:13:18 for the most people.
1:13:19 So instead of picking up
1:13:20 right there
1:13:21 Peter Thiel
1:13:22 or Elon Musk,
1:13:23 where I’ll get in a second,
1:13:24 Andrew Carnegie
1:13:26 is a really useful person
1:13:26 to look at
1:13:27 because he becomes,
1:13:28 he’s an immigrant
1:13:29 who becomes a steel baron
1:13:32 and he arrives
1:13:33 in the United States
1:13:33 at a time
1:13:35 when he is able
1:13:35 to rise
1:13:37 because of the economy,
1:13:38 because of the Civil War
1:13:39 and the nationalization
1:13:40 of that period
1:13:41 because of his connections
1:13:42 and so on
1:13:44 and by the 1890s
1:13:46 he is no longer
1:13:47 talking about,
1:13:47 you know,
1:13:49 the fortune of America
1:13:49 that enabled him
1:13:51 to become who he was.
1:13:52 He is talking about
1:13:53 how it was his own
1:13:54 hard work
1:13:55 that enabled him
1:13:56 to become who he was
1:13:57 and that because
1:13:58 he was so much better
1:14:00 than the people around him
1:14:01 he should be able
1:14:02 to concentrate wealth
1:14:03 in his own hands
1:14:04 and that that’s the way
1:14:05 the society really should work
1:14:06 is that wealth
1:14:07 should concentrate
1:14:08 among those
1:14:09 most able
1:14:10 to amass it
1:14:11 because what they would do
1:14:12 was they would use it
1:14:13 as the stewards
1:14:13 of society
1:14:15 by building libraries
1:14:16 or opera houses
1:14:18 or public facilities
1:14:20 that could not be achieved
1:14:21 unless they did
1:14:22 concentrate that wealth
1:14:23 because if you left it
1:14:23 in the hands
1:14:24 of the workers
1:14:25 they would waste it
1:14:26 on food
1:14:27 or clothing
1:14:27 or housing
1:14:28 or leisure time.
1:14:29 Well,
1:14:30 if you move that
1:14:31 mindset
1:14:32 into the present
1:14:33 you can see
1:14:34 somebody like
1:14:35 Elon Musk
1:14:35 who believes
1:14:36 that he will save
1:14:37 humanity
1:14:37 or at least
1:14:39 alleges he believes
1:14:40 that he will save humanity
1:14:42 by settling Mars
1:14:45 you see that same idea
1:14:47 that he has ideas
1:14:50 that are only being corrupted
1:14:51 by the idea
1:14:52 of civil rights
1:14:52 regulations
1:14:54 the idea that
1:14:54 in fact
1:14:56 women and people of color
1:14:58 should have equal rights
1:14:59 to employment
1:15:01 and equal protections
1:15:02 in American society
1:15:03 that hampers him
1:15:05 and that mindset
1:15:06 that some people
1:15:07 are better than others
1:15:08 and have the right
1:15:09 to rule
1:15:09 for the good
1:15:10 of humanity
1:15:12 is a thread
1:15:13 that runs through
1:15:14 American history
1:15:15 not just from the Gilded Age
1:15:16 but the elite
1:15:17 and southern enslavers
1:15:18 said the same thing
1:15:19 in the 1850s
1:15:19 the exact same thing
1:15:20 in the 1850s
1:15:21 that they were the ones
1:15:22 who had truly figured out
1:15:23 society
1:15:25 so to me
1:15:26 it’s just a continuity
1:15:27 and that
1:15:28 in many ways
1:15:29 helps me think
1:15:30 about ways
1:15:31 to combat it
1:15:32 because I don’t believe that
1:15:33 I actually do believe
1:15:34 that people are equal
1:15:35 and that they do have a right
1:15:36 to a say in their government
1:15:37 and they do have a right
1:15:37 to be treated equally
1:15:38 before the law
1:15:39 and they should have
1:15:40 equal access to resources
1:15:42 including things like
1:15:43 health care and education
1:15:45 so when I think about
1:15:47 reinforcing that set
1:15:49 of ideological principles
1:15:50 which are the same ones
1:15:51 that somebody like
1:15:52 Theodore Roosevelt
1:15:53 or Dwight Eisenhower
1:15:54 or FDR
1:15:55 or Lincoln embraced
1:15:57 in a way
1:15:58 there’s a road map there
1:16:00 to see how we have
1:16:01 succeeded in the past
1:16:03 and I do want to point out
1:16:04 that in all of those moments
1:16:05 that I just mentioned
1:16:05 the 1850s
1:16:06 the 1890s
1:16:07 the 1920s
1:16:08 the present
1:16:11 it didn’t look
1:16:12 at the time
1:16:13 as if
1:16:14 the idea of equality
1:16:15 was going to win
1:16:16 you think of somebody
1:16:17 like John Dos Passos
1:16:18 and his poem
1:16:19 about how they have
1:16:20 clubbed us off the streets
1:16:23 people thought
1:16:23 that the rich
1:16:24 elites
1:16:25 who wanted to control
1:16:26 everything
1:16:27 were going to win
1:16:27 it was never
1:16:28 an easy fight
1:16:30 and this fight
1:16:30 is not going to be
1:16:31 easy either
1:16:32 but I am not
1:16:34 ready to give up
1:16:35 on America
1:16:37 we have done it
1:16:37 in the past
1:16:39 and in a way
1:16:40 we have the tools
1:16:40 to know how to do it
1:16:41 again
1:16:43 not ready to give up
1:16:44 on America
1:16:45 Heather Cox Richardson
1:16:46 is a professor of history
1:16:47 at Boston College
1:16:48 and an expert
1:16:49 on American political
1:16:50 and economic history
1:16:51 she is the author
1:16:52 of seven award winning books
1:16:53 including her latest
1:16:55 Democracy Awakening
1:16:57 Notes on the State of America
1:16:59 her widely read newsletter
1:17:00 Letters from an American
1:17:02 synthesizes history
1:17:03 and modern political issues
1:17:05 I’m going to ask a favor
1:17:08 most conversations I have
1:17:09 I think I have a certain
1:17:11 I’m not proud of this
1:17:11 level of arrogance
1:17:12 I think
1:17:13 okay that’s interesting
1:17:14 but I have a better take on this
1:17:16 I found myself insecure
1:17:17 in this conversation
1:17:19 because you are so forceful
1:17:20 and dignified
1:17:21 and have such deep
1:17:21 domain expertise
1:17:23 and this is my ask
1:17:25 I want to bring more
1:17:26 light to your work
1:17:27 I think
1:17:29 it just shocks me
1:17:30 that you are
1:17:31 as much
1:17:33 praise
1:17:34 and influence
1:17:35 as you have
1:17:35 that
1:17:37 I think your work
1:17:38 deserves a lot more
1:17:39 attention
1:17:40 and with your
1:17:41 approval
1:17:42 and your help
1:17:43 I would like to bring
1:17:44 more attention to it
1:17:45 I can’t tell you
1:17:46 how much I enjoyed
1:17:47 this conversation
1:17:48 I think you are doing
1:17:48 great work
1:17:49 and are
1:17:50 the right voice
1:17:51 at the right moment
1:17:55 this episode
1:17:56 was produced by
1:17:57 Jennifer Sanchez
1:17:57 Drew Burrows
1:17:58 is our technical director
1:17:59 thank you for listening
1:18:00 to the Prof G Pod
1:18:01 from the Vox Media Podcast Network

0:00:02 Support for Prop 3 comes from Viore.
0:00:04 Oh my God, true story.
0:00:08 I am wearing, totally coincidentally, guess what?
0:00:09 Viore shorts.
0:00:12 Viore’s high quality gym clothes are made to be versatile
0:00:14 and stand the test of time.
0:00:17 They sent me some to try out and here I am.
0:00:20 For our listeners, Viore is offering 20% off
0:00:21 your first purchase.
0:00:24 Plus, you have free shipping on any US orders
0:00:26 over $75 in free returns.
0:00:27 Get yourself some of the most comfortable
0:00:30 and versatile clothing on the planet.
0:00:31 Viore.com slash Prop G.
0:00:35 That’s V-U-O-R-I dot com slash Prop G.
0:00:37 Exclusions apply.
0:00:40 Visit the website for full terms and conditions.
0:00:46 Avoiding your unfinished home projects
0:00:48 because you’re not sure where to start?
0:00:51 Thumbtack knows homes, so you don’t have to.
0:00:54 Don’t know the difference between matte paint finish
0:00:54 and satin?
0:00:57 Or what that clunking sound from your dryer is?
0:01:00 With Thumbtack, you don’t have to be a home pro.
0:01:02 You just have to hire one.
0:01:05 You can hire top-rated pros, see price estimates,
0:01:07 and read reviews all on the app.
0:01:08 Download today.
0:01:12 There’s a lot nobody tells you about running a small business,
0:01:13 like the pricing,
0:01:14 the marketing,
0:01:16 the budgeting,
0:01:17 the accidents,
0:01:18 the panicking,
0:01:20 and the things,
0:01:21 and the things,
0:01:23 and the non-stop things.
0:01:25 But having the right insurance
0:01:26 can help protect you from many things.
0:01:28 Customize your coverage
0:01:29 to get the protection you need
0:01:31 with BCAA Small Business Insurance.
0:01:33 Use promo code PROTECT
0:01:35 to receive $50 off
0:01:37 at bcaa.com slash smallbusiness.
0:01:43 Welcome to Raging Moderates.
0:01:44 I’m Scott Galloway.
0:01:45 And I’m Jessica Tarlov.
0:01:47 Jess, have you missed me?
0:01:49 Have you missed me?
0:01:49 Yeah.
0:01:51 And I don’t want to say it again,
0:01:52 but, like, I texted you
0:01:53 and you just didn’t respond.
0:01:54 And it was interesting.
0:01:56 It was in response
0:01:57 to your No Mercy, No Malice column
0:01:59 with extra data for you
0:02:00 to be able to use in your shows.
0:02:01 Oh, really?
0:02:02 It’s okay.
0:02:05 I know you have a scarcity clause
0:02:06 in our contract or whatever,
0:02:07 or in your contract with everybody.
0:02:08 Yeah, I don’t.
0:02:11 I would like a new gestalt in our society
0:02:12 that when you don’t respond
0:02:13 to emails or texts,
0:02:14 it means,
0:02:15 I agree,
0:02:16 what a great email,
0:02:18 drop the mic,
0:02:19 I don’t need to respond.
0:02:21 That’s what the thumbs up
0:02:22 was created for.
0:02:24 100%.
0:02:25 It’s not enough for most women,
0:02:26 I will say,
0:02:27 but at least it means
0:02:29 that you are alive,
0:02:30 that you recognize
0:02:31 that this happened
0:02:32 and that you aren’t upset
0:02:33 about something
0:02:34 because that’s where
0:02:35 the estrogen takes you.
0:02:36 Like, I think,
0:02:36 oh my God,
0:02:38 is Scott in Ibiza
0:02:40 upset about something?
0:02:41 But no,
0:02:41 you were probably just
0:02:43 drinking and hanging.
0:02:44 Oh, see,
0:02:46 I think women are more secure.
0:02:47 I think guys are actually
0:02:47 Have you met women?
0:02:48 more insecure
0:02:49 and women,
0:02:51 because women have so much
0:02:53 practice ghosting men.
0:02:54 I think they respect
0:02:55 the slow fade.
0:02:57 I think they respect
0:02:57 the, like,
0:02:58 the polite,
0:03:00 I’m winding down
0:03:01 this dialogue,
0:03:02 whereas men,
0:03:03 especially powerful men,
0:03:04 are used to everyone
0:03:06 responding back
0:03:06 and, you know,
0:03:08 licking them up and down.
0:03:08 And I’m,
0:03:10 I find,
0:03:11 and I’m virtually signaling,
0:03:12 but it’s true,
0:03:14 the more important the person,
0:03:15 the less likely I am
0:03:16 to respond,
0:03:17 because I have spent
0:03:18 my entire career,
0:03:19 Jess,
0:03:20 responding
0:03:22 to powerful people,
0:03:23 whether it’s writing
0:03:23 their speeches,
0:03:24 doing their presentations
0:03:25 for boards,
0:03:26 or telling them
0:03:27 what decisions to make,
0:03:28 or whatever it is.
0:03:30 And now I am done.
0:03:31 I am done
0:03:33 renting my brain
0:03:34 to rich white dudes.
0:03:35 I’m done.
0:03:35 Oh.
0:03:36 Anyways,
0:03:36 probably more than you
0:03:37 were bargaining for.
0:03:38 A little bit.
0:03:39 Back to you.
0:03:40 How are your children?
0:03:41 Oh,
0:03:42 so nice of you to ask.
0:03:43 They are great.
0:03:44 I got some
0:03:45 cute photos
0:03:46 from last week.
0:03:47 I won’t send them to you
0:03:48 because it won’t matter,
0:03:49 probably.
0:03:50 But, uh,
0:03:50 don’t care.
0:03:51 They’re really good.
0:03:53 We’re getting very comfortable
0:03:54 in the pool,
0:03:54 which is important,
0:03:56 the water safety skills.
0:03:56 Oh, God.
0:03:58 It’s so scary
0:04:00 when you’re around water,
0:04:01 which I’m a city kid,
0:04:03 and we don’t have a pool,
0:04:03 obviously, here.
0:04:05 But it’s the scariest thing
0:04:05 in the world
0:04:06 to think that they could
0:04:07 just fall in
0:04:08 when you turn your head
0:04:08 or you’re not,
0:04:08 you know,
0:04:09 they get out of the house
0:04:10 somehow, so.
0:04:11 Oh,
0:04:12 your instincts there
0:04:12 are correct
0:04:13 and common sense.
0:04:15 I have personal experience
0:04:15 with this.
0:04:17 I saw my job
0:04:17 as a father
0:04:18 of young children
0:04:19 to do two things.
0:04:20 Bring home the bacon
0:04:21 and, two,
0:04:22 keep the kids away
0:04:23 from any body of water.
0:04:25 And when we first
0:04:26 moved to Florida,
0:04:27 I was out and back
0:04:28 and my son,
0:04:29 who was,
0:04:30 he was like three or four
0:04:31 and we were out in the back,
0:04:32 he was playing in the pool
0:04:34 and he went to the deep end
0:04:34 and jumped in
0:04:36 and started flailing around
0:04:36 and I was there
0:04:37 so I could jump in
0:04:38 and fish him out.
0:04:39 And I thought,
0:04:40 if I had just gone in
0:04:41 for some water,
0:04:44 if I had just taken a call
0:04:45 and wandered around
0:04:46 the side of the house.
0:04:48 Anyways,
0:04:49 you’re right to be paranoid
0:04:50 about that.
0:04:50 And then,
0:04:52 one summer,
0:04:52 I forget where we were,
0:04:54 we even bought those devices
0:04:55 that you put on their shirts
0:04:57 and when the device
0:04:58 senses water
0:04:59 and alarm goes off
0:05:00 and the alarm went off
0:05:01 on a Sunday
0:05:01 and we’re all like
0:05:03 running around the house
0:05:03 looking for a kid
0:05:04 and a body of water
0:05:06 and someone put the shirt
0:05:07 in the laundry.
0:05:08 I don’t know how
0:05:09 I got here, Jess.
0:05:09 Did I tell you
0:05:10 I’m in Ibiza?
0:05:11 You did,
0:05:12 but now you’re telling everybody
0:05:13 it looks nice
0:05:14 or looks fine.
0:05:15 I’m in Ibiza,
0:05:17 where there are
0:05:18 a ton of young men
0:05:19 who have not earned
0:05:20 their wealth
0:05:20 and are spending
0:05:21 their father’s money
0:05:22 and have some intricate story
0:05:23 about the real job
0:05:24 they supposedly have
0:05:25 and it’s obvious
0:05:26 within about 10 seconds
0:05:26 they’re just,
0:05:28 they’ve got a rich dad
0:05:29 and they bring
0:05:30 a bunch of women,
0:05:30 you know,
0:05:31 looking to be sponsored
0:05:32 by the son.
0:05:34 There’s so many sexist,
0:05:34 classist things
0:05:35 I just made in that statement
0:05:36 but I’m holding by it.
0:05:37 But I do love it here.
0:05:38 They’re also all true
0:05:39 about it there.
0:05:40 I went once,
0:05:41 I was 30
0:05:42 and I was the only person
0:05:44 who wasn’t on Molly
0:05:45 when we went out
0:05:48 and it’s something to behold
0:05:49 watching people
0:05:50 on Molly
0:05:53 dancing for five hours straight.
0:05:54 Like we had just started
0:05:55 getting step counters,
0:05:56 you know,
0:05:57 like people were paying attention
0:05:58 to the number of steps
0:05:58 and then you see that
0:06:00 someone did like 40,000 steps
0:06:01 overnight
0:06:02 and you know
0:06:02 they had a good night.
0:06:04 Yeah,
0:06:04 I’m not going to say
0:06:05 whether or not
0:06:05 I take Molly
0:06:06 but a couple nights ago
0:06:07 at the Black Coffee
0:06:07 DJ said,
0:06:09 I found I really like me.
0:06:11 I really felt good about me
0:06:12 all of a sudden.
0:06:13 All right, Jess,
0:06:15 today we’re talking about
0:06:15 the new phase
0:06:16 of Trump’s trade war.
0:06:17 That was a segue.
0:06:19 The GOP trying to sell
0:06:19 their new bill
0:06:21 and Elon Musk’s
0:06:22 new third party.
0:06:23 Jesus Christ,
0:06:24 you fucking attention monster.
0:06:25 Could you be more addicted
0:06:27 to ketamine
0:06:27 or attention,
0:06:28 you fucking weirdo?
0:06:29 All right,
0:06:29 let’s get into it.
0:06:31 Now that the White House
0:06:32 has pushed its big
0:06:33 legislative package
0:06:34 across the finish line,
0:06:36 it’s turning its attention
0:06:37 back to the global trade war
0:06:38 with a fresh dose
0:06:39 of confusion,
0:06:39 deadlines,
0:06:40 and diplomatic drama
0:06:43 after a 90-day tariff pause
0:06:44 that produced
0:06:45 only a few shaky deals.
0:06:47 That is generous
0:06:48 to describe
0:06:49 what has happened
0:06:49 with the U.K.
0:06:50 By the way,
0:06:51 let’s just talk about
0:06:51 this U.K. deal.
0:06:52 A reduction in tariffs
0:06:54 on the Austin Martin engines
0:06:55 and Rolls-Royce engines.
0:06:55 Wow,
0:06:56 that’s going to change
0:06:56 the economy.
0:06:59 After a 90-day tariff pause
0:06:59 that produced
0:07:00 only a few
0:07:01 of these deals
0:07:03 with the U.K.,
0:07:03 Vietnam,
0:07:04 and China,
0:07:04 although I wouldn’t
0:07:05 even call them deals.
0:07:06 I’m still pretty angry
0:07:07 about this.
0:07:08 There are agreements
0:07:08 or structures
0:07:09 to talk about a deal.
0:07:10 Trump says the U.S.
0:07:10 is ready
0:07:11 to turn up the pressure.
0:07:13 Oh, God.
0:07:14 Hold my beer, bitch.
0:07:14 That is literally
0:07:15 what the world
0:07:16 is saying to this guy
0:07:16 right now.
0:07:18 Starting August 1st,
0:07:20 steep import duties,
0:07:21 some as high as 70%,
0:07:22 are set to kick in.
0:07:24 Yeah, sure they are.
0:07:25 Sure they are.
0:07:26 Mr. Trump
0:07:27 owe his chickens out.
0:07:27 That process
0:07:29 began in earnest Monday
0:07:31 when President Trump
0:07:32 fired off tariff letters
0:07:32 to the leaders
0:07:33 of 14 countries,
0:07:34 including Japan,
0:07:34 South Korea,
0:07:34 Malaysia,
0:07:35 and South Africa.
0:07:37 These letters spell out
0:07:38 new country-specific tariffs,
0:07:40 I guess from some intern
0:07:42 that has a chat GPT account,
0:07:44 ranging from 25%
0:07:45 to 40%,
0:07:46 and warned that rates
0:07:48 could even go higher
0:07:48 if those countries
0:07:49 retaliate.
0:07:50 At the same time,
0:07:51 Trump signed
0:07:52 an executive action
0:07:53 pushing back the deadline
0:07:55 for most reciprocal tariffs
0:07:56 with, oh,
0:07:57 pushed back the deadline.
0:07:59 My red lines
0:08:00 are kind of a beige
0:08:01 invisible line,
0:08:03 said Trump over and over,
0:08:04 with the exception of China
0:08:06 to August 1st.
0:08:07 The move buys more time
0:08:08 for negotiations.
0:08:09 In other words,
0:08:10 I’m folding yet again,
0:08:11 said Donald Trump
0:08:12 to the world,
0:08:13 but not by much.
0:08:14 Now businesses
0:08:15 are bracing for impact,
0:08:16 markets are jittery,
0:08:17 and major questions remain.
0:08:19 Will Canada’s
0:08:20 July 21st deadline hold?
0:08:21 What happens
0:08:22 when the China truce
0:08:24 expires August 12th?
0:08:25 And is this strategy
0:08:28 or just more bullshit,
0:08:28 jazz hands,
0:08:30 false, empty threats?
0:08:30 Jess,
0:08:32 what do you make
0:08:33 of this new phase
0:08:34 of, let’s call it
0:08:35 the tariff limbo?
0:08:37 It’s the same as usual
0:08:38 in that it just feels
0:08:40 deeply unserious.
0:08:41 And this has
0:08:43 an exclamation point
0:08:44 after unserious
0:08:45 or a crescendo
0:08:46 because these letters
0:08:47 letters that he sent
0:08:48 to foreign leaders
0:08:49 were just like
0:08:51 true social posts
0:08:52 on letterhead.
0:08:53 It was like written
0:08:55 by a 14-year-old boy.
0:08:56 He’s capitalizing
0:08:57 random words.
0:08:58 His grammar
0:08:59 makes no sense.
0:09:00 He’s misgendering
0:09:01 certain leaders.
0:09:03 They fixed that, though.
0:09:04 Her Excellency
0:09:05 became a dear
0:09:05 Mr. President
0:09:07 within a few hours.
0:09:09 But there’s always
0:09:10 been an opportunity
0:09:11 for the Trump administration
0:09:13 to take the layup
0:09:14 on this trade war
0:09:14 because when they
0:09:15 buy themselves
0:09:16 more time,
0:09:16 they could just
0:09:17 back out.
0:09:18 And no one would
0:09:19 really say anything
0:09:19 because they’d just
0:09:20 be quietly relieved.
0:09:21 Like, everyone over
0:09:22 at CNBC would be like,
0:09:23 thank God.
0:09:24 Right?
0:09:25 We can just get back
0:09:25 to being normal.
0:09:26 And you could talk
0:09:27 about tariffs on China,
0:09:28 which everyone
0:09:29 broadly agrees with,
0:09:30 and the Biden
0:09:31 administration did as well.
0:09:32 They even jacked up
0:09:33 Trump’s tariffs
0:09:34 on China threefold
0:09:36 and just focus on people
0:09:38 that are actually
0:09:40 at war with us
0:09:40 in some way
0:09:41 or another.
0:09:43 But these blanket
0:09:43 tariffs,
0:09:44 these violations
0:09:45 of, by the way,
0:09:46 free trade agreements,
0:09:47 which creates
0:09:48 larger questions
0:09:49 around what Donald
0:09:50 Trump thinks Congress
0:09:51 actually does
0:09:52 or if he values it
0:09:53 at all,
0:09:53 which, I mean,
0:09:54 he doesn’t,
0:09:54 as we’ve seen
0:09:55 time and time again.
0:09:56 But like on South Korea,
0:09:57 we have a free trade
0:09:57 agreement.
0:09:59 It’s not up to you
0:10:00 what you do with them.
0:10:01 I just,
0:10:02 I don’t want to see
0:10:03 Scott Besson anymore.
0:10:04 Like, this guy
0:10:05 who was supposed
0:10:05 to be the adult
0:10:06 in the room
0:10:07 making the rounds
0:10:08 on the Sunday shows,
0:10:08 then he’s all
0:10:10 over CNBC on Monday
0:10:12 and he’s so smug
0:10:15 and he’s telling us
0:10:16 to not believe
0:10:16 our lion eyes
0:10:17 about what’s going on.
0:10:18 You know,
0:10:19 we had 90 deals
0:10:20 in 90 days.
0:10:21 That’s over.
0:10:22 Peter Navarro says,
0:10:23 oh, I’m very happy
0:10:24 with where we are.
0:10:24 I don’t know how
0:10:26 that’s physically possible
0:10:26 if you said we were
0:10:27 getting 90 deals
0:10:28 in 90 days.
0:10:29 And then we had
0:10:30 Trump in April.
0:10:30 I’m telling you,
0:10:31 these countries
0:10:32 are calling up.
0:10:33 They’re kissing my ass.
0:10:33 They’re dying
0:10:34 to make a deal.
0:10:35 Please, please, sir,
0:10:35 make a deal.
0:10:36 I’ll do anything, sir.
0:10:37 And when he talks like that,
0:10:39 you know that it’s hyperbole.
0:10:40 But now Besson
0:10:41 has admitted as much
0:10:42 that a lot of those countries
0:10:43 didn’t even call us.
0:10:44 And people understand
0:10:45 that you just kind of
0:10:46 sit back and wait
0:10:46 to see what happens.
0:10:48 Because even if you were
0:10:49 to make a plan
0:10:50 that goes along
0:10:51 with what they want
0:10:53 for you to be doing,
0:10:53 right,
0:10:53 that they want you
0:10:54 to build a factory
0:10:55 or whatever,
0:10:56 they’re not giving you
0:10:57 enough time to do it
0:10:59 to any execution whatsoever
0:11:00 because in 10 days
0:11:00 it just changes.
0:11:01 So if I were
0:11:02 these other countries,
0:11:03 I would just sit back
0:11:04 and kind of wait
0:11:05 and see what happens
0:11:06 and hope that he gets
0:11:07 distracted by something
0:11:09 and just keep buying yourself
0:11:10 more and more time.
0:11:11 What do you think?
0:11:14 Yeah, so the entity
0:11:15 which has become
0:11:16 sort of a better
0:11:17 predictor engine
0:11:19 than political pundits
0:11:21 or CNN or Fox
0:11:22 is the markets.
0:11:23 And basically the markets
0:11:25 don’t believe
0:11:26 the tariffs are going
0:11:27 to change that much.
0:11:29 I mean, to be clear,
0:11:30 and I’m a bit
0:11:31 of a catastrophist,
0:11:31 I thought this was
0:11:32 really going to hurt
0:11:32 the markets.
0:11:33 And the markets
0:11:34 have basically said
0:11:35 the tariffs are going
0:11:36 to look remarkably
0:11:37 similar to the way
0:11:37 they did before.
0:11:38 They’re just,
0:11:39 the markets aren’t
0:11:40 worried about this nonsense.
0:11:42 And I did some analysis
0:11:43 because I was very excited
0:11:44 about coming back
0:11:45 to raging moderates.
0:11:47 And I’m fairly certain
0:11:50 that by dollar volume,
0:11:51 there have been
0:11:52 more deals struck
0:11:53 since the president
0:11:55 announced his new
0:11:56 tariff policy,
0:11:57 or what I’ll call threats,
0:11:58 between countries
0:12:00 that are non-U.S.
0:12:02 and that is the threats
0:12:03 of tariffs have actually
0:12:05 inspired a great deal
0:12:06 of deal-making,
0:12:08 just not between the U.S.
0:12:08 and the people
0:12:09 we’ve threatened.
0:12:11 What it’s done
0:12:12 is it’s sent a message
0:12:13 to non-U.S.
0:12:14 countries
0:12:16 that they can’t count
0:12:17 on this incredible
0:12:18 trade relationship
0:12:19 they used to have
0:12:20 with the United States,
0:12:21 which has inspired them
0:12:22 to begin speaking
0:12:23 to each other
0:12:24 and rerouting
0:12:25 their supply chain,
0:12:26 including dialogue
0:12:27 and agreements
0:12:28 around the U.S.
0:12:29 to a few of those.
0:12:31 Vietnam and South Korea
0:12:32 have announced
0:12:33 a $150 billion
0:12:34 more balanced
0:12:35 and sustainable
0:12:36 trade relationship
0:12:37 as they swear
0:12:38 cooperation
0:12:40 following Trump’s tariffs.
0:12:42 EU has struck
0:12:43 more deals
0:12:44 with China,
0:12:45 with Canada,
0:12:46 with India,
0:12:48 the EU
0:12:49 and Mercosur,
0:12:50 a bunch of the
0:12:52 Southeast Asian nations
0:12:53 are talking.
0:12:54 For the first time,
0:12:54 Japan,
0:12:55 South Korea,
0:12:56 and China.
0:12:57 We tend to,
0:12:58 as Americans,
0:12:59 you know,
0:13:00 we’re fairly narcissistic.
0:13:00 We just go,
0:13:01 oh, Asia,
0:13:02 and we think
0:13:02 they’re all the same.
0:13:04 Japan,
0:13:04 South Korea,
0:13:05 and China
0:13:06 are not in love
0:13:06 with each other.
0:13:08 They do not like
0:13:08 each other.
0:13:10 And they are talking
0:13:12 for the first time
0:13:13 about closer ties.
0:13:13 Why?
0:13:15 Because their attitude
0:13:16 is these people,
0:13:18 we can’t count
0:13:19 on this great trading
0:13:20 or pre-existing
0:13:21 trading relationship,
0:13:22 so let’s start
0:13:22 discussing.
0:13:23 So in sum,
0:13:25 Trump did inspire
0:13:27 a great deal
0:13:28 of deal-making,
0:13:30 just not among us
0:13:31 between nations
0:13:32 he’s threatened,
0:13:33 between them
0:13:34 and each other.
0:13:35 Sounds like
0:13:35 what goes on
0:13:36 on foreign policy
0:13:37 as well.
0:13:37 You know,
0:13:39 he did admittedly
0:13:39 have a good
0:13:40 NATO summit
0:13:42 and maybe he’s
0:13:42 going to get
0:13:43 the 5% commitment
0:13:44 in terms of
0:13:45 defense spending
0:13:46 from some nations,
0:13:47 but we know
0:13:48 with the position
0:13:49 that the U.S.
0:13:49 has taken
0:13:50 on Ukraine,
0:13:50 for instance,
0:13:52 that the EU
0:13:53 gets together
0:13:53 with Ukraine
0:13:54 without us
0:13:55 on a pretty
0:13:56 regular basis.
0:13:57 You know,
0:13:57 it’s a go-it-alone
0:13:58 strategy that
0:13:59 we’ve taken
0:14:00 and we’re seeing
0:14:01 the repercussions
0:14:01 of it.
0:14:02 The question
0:14:03 will be
0:14:04 what happens
0:14:04 at home
0:14:06 in terms of
0:14:06 how the American
0:14:07 public feels
0:14:07 about this.
0:14:08 And we know
0:14:08 that Trump’s
0:14:09 disapproval on trade
0:14:10 has skyrocketed
0:14:11 from January.
0:14:13 It was 40%.
0:14:14 Now it’s up
0:14:14 to 54%.
0:14:16 I saw one survey
0:14:16 that actually
0:14:17 had a 65%
0:14:18 disapproval.
0:14:19 The American
0:14:20 public knows
0:14:20 that tariffs
0:14:21 are a tax
0:14:22 on them
0:14:23 because they’re
0:14:24 people that go
0:14:24 out and buy
0:14:25 things.
0:14:25 A lot of them
0:14:26 small business
0:14:27 owners who have
0:14:28 no idea how
0:14:28 to make a plan
0:14:29 for their future
0:14:31 or that they
0:14:31 think that they
0:14:31 can even stay
0:14:32 in business
0:14:33 for the next
0:14:33 six months.
0:14:35 What I saw
0:14:36 that feels
0:14:36 like a bit
0:14:37 of a watershed
0:14:37 moment,
0:14:38 and I didn’t
0:14:38 realize that
0:14:39 this transition
0:14:40 hadn’t happened
0:14:40 yet,
0:14:41 but in the
0:14:42 last month,
0:14:43 Trump voters
0:14:44 have started
0:14:45 saying that this
0:14:45 is Trump’s
0:14:46 economy.
0:14:47 So essentially
0:14:47 this feels
0:14:48 like a reset
0:14:49 moment for the
0:14:50 administration.
0:14:51 So he’s been
0:14:51 in for six
0:14:52 months.
0:14:52 But if you
0:14:53 consider that it’s
0:14:54 only like in the
0:14:54 last few weeks
0:14:56 actually that people
0:14:56 who went out
0:14:57 and voted for him
0:14:59 in November are
0:14:59 saying that he
0:15:00 owns this economy,
0:15:01 it’s a bit of a
0:15:02 blank slate.
0:15:03 And so this new
0:15:04 set of tariffs
0:15:05 and whatever is
0:15:06 to come going
0:15:07 forward in terms
0:15:08 of the economy
0:15:08 is actually going
0:15:09 to be what
0:15:10 Democrats need
0:15:10 to be paying
0:15:11 attention to
0:15:12 and what we’re
0:15:12 going to have
0:15:13 to work for
0:15:13 for the midterm.
0:15:14 So that’s like
0:15:15 18 months versus
0:15:17 24 months of
0:15:18 actual runway
0:15:18 there.
0:15:19 And I was
0:15:20 surprised to
0:15:20 see it.
0:15:21 I know that
0:15:21 everyone, you
0:15:21 know, you
0:15:22 have your
0:15:23 horses and
0:15:23 because you
0:15:24 like this
0:15:24 guy, you
0:15:24 say, oh, it’s
0:15:25 not his
0:15:25 fault.
0:15:26 And all
0:15:26 presidents do
0:15:27 that, right?
0:15:27 They say, you
0:15:27 know, I’m
0:15:28 cleaning up the
0:15:28 mess of the
0:15:29 last guy.
0:15:30 It’s not true
0:15:30 all the time
0:15:30 when they say
0:15:31 it, but they
0:15:32 certainly do.
0:15:33 But I think
0:15:34 that’s a very
0:15:36 different perspective
0:15:36 that we’re going
0:15:37 into this now
0:15:38 where people are
0:15:39 saying Donald
0:15:40 Trump is fully
0:15:41 in control of the
0:15:42 United States of
0:15:42 America now.
0:15:43 And what does
0:15:44 that look like?
0:15:44 It looks like the
0:15:45 one beautiful bill,
0:15:46 which we’re going
0:15:46 to talk about.
0:15:50 trade wars that
0:15:50 are really going
0:15:51 to hurt the
0:15:52 American economy.
0:15:53 I do think it’s
0:15:54 interesting about the
0:15:54 market.
0:15:55 You know, the
0:15:56 ticker is always
0:15:56 running on Fox,
0:15:57 and I, well, I’m
0:15:58 in hair and makeup
0:15:59 for an hour because
0:16:00 it takes a long
0:16:01 time to attach
0:16:02 those fake eyelashes
0:16:03 and bring my hair
0:16:04 closer to God.
0:16:05 You know, I’m
0:16:06 always watching the
0:16:06 direction of things,
0:16:07 and there were
0:16:08 certainly a lot of
0:16:08 very positive
0:16:09 green days.
0:16:11 But yesterday, as
0:16:12 these letters were
0:16:12 trickling in, you
0:16:13 see it go into the
0:16:14 red, and I’m
0:16:15 watching Liz Klayman,
0:16:16 who we both love,
0:16:18 on Fox Business, and
0:16:19 talking to her guests
0:16:20 about what’s going
0:16:20 on in their
0:16:21 companies and how
0:16:22 they’re planning.
0:16:23 And they’re saying
0:16:24 something very similar
0:16:25 to what you said,
0:16:27 which is they’re
0:16:28 making plans for it,
0:16:29 but they’re not
0:16:29 thinking that it’s
0:16:30 the be-all and
0:16:31 end-all.
0:16:32 And I really wish
0:16:34 that more CEOs of
0:16:35 companies, like the
0:16:36 CEO of Ford, sat
0:16:37 down with Lara
0:16:38 Trump and actually
0:16:40 told her why
0:16:40 you need to get
0:16:41 some of these
0:16:42 parts from other
0:16:42 countries and how
0:16:44 unfeasible, is it
0:16:45 unfeasible or
0:16:45 infeasible?
0:16:46 Yes.
0:16:48 How it is not
0:16:49 feasible to totally
0:16:50 produce these cars
0:16:52 on American soil is
0:16:52 what you have to do.
0:16:53 You have to do it
0:16:54 with the kid gloves.
0:16:54 You have to do it
0:16:55 as nicely as
0:16:56 possible, but you
0:16:57 have to show up and
0:16:57 you have to look
0:16:58 these people in the
0:16:59 eye and just say
0:17:00 it’s not possible.
0:17:01 Yeah, if they were
0:17:02 really serious, well,
0:17:04 okay, so the F-150,
0:17:06 I think, goes across
0:17:06 the Canadian or
0:17:07 Mexican border back
0:17:08 and forth or
0:17:08 components of it
0:17:09 like 12 times.
0:17:11 It’s not even clear
0:17:11 how you would even
0:17:12 force these tariffs.
0:17:13 And two, if we were
0:17:15 really interested in
0:17:16 more domestic
0:17:17 manufacturing around
0:17:17 the automobile
0:17:18 industry, we
0:17:19 wouldn’t have cut
0:17:19 those subsidies to
0:17:20 EVs because the
0:17:21 most vertical
0:17:22 automobile manufacturer
0:17:23 is Tesla because
0:17:24 it has dramatically
0:17:25 fewer parts that can
0:17:26 be manufactured and
0:17:27 milled domestically.
0:17:29 And while I’m
0:17:29 loathe to give any
0:17:31 credit to Elon Musk
0:17:33 companies, EVs, if
0:17:33 you were really
0:17:34 interested about having
0:17:35 more domestic
0:17:36 production and
0:17:36 dramatically
0:17:37 simplifying the
0:17:38 supply chain, you
0:17:39 wouldn’t be halting
0:17:40 the EV tax
0:17:41 credits.
0:17:42 What I did find
0:17:43 interesting recently
0:17:45 was that Chairman
0:17:46 Powell at an
0:17:47 economic conference
0:17:48 basically came out
0:17:48 and said, if it
0:17:49 wasn’t for the
0:17:50 tariffs and the
0:17:51 insecurity that the
0:17:52 tariffs are creating
0:17:54 around the possibility
0:17:55 of inflation, if he
0:17:56 actually follows
0:17:57 through on his
0:17:58 threats, which looks
0:17:59 less and less likely
0:18:00 every day as he
0:18:01 continues to
0:18:01 threaten, fold,
0:18:03 threaten, fold,
0:18:04 threaten, see above,
0:18:06 fold, that he
0:18:07 said, we would
0:18:08 have lowered
0:18:08 interest rates
0:18:09 already.
0:18:11 And so, effectively,
0:18:12 the entire economy
0:18:13 is paying a tax of
0:18:14 somewhere between,
0:18:15 call it, 25 and
0:18:16 100 basis points on
0:18:18 your credit cards,
0:18:18 your student loan
0:18:19 payments, your
0:18:20 mortgage payments,
0:18:21 because we would be
0:18:22 in a rate-cutting
0:18:24 cycle right now had
0:18:24 it not been for
0:18:26 someone who is a lot
0:18:26 smarter than anyone
0:18:27 on the administration’s
0:18:28 current economic
0:18:29 team, had he not
0:18:30 said, we have to
0:18:31 wait and see if
0:18:31 these tariffs go
0:18:32 through and the
0:18:32 inflationary
0:18:33 impact they have
0:18:34 before we start
0:18:35 cutting interest
0:18:36 rates, because if
0:18:37 all of a sudden
0:18:39 everything gets
0:18:40 more expensive and
0:18:41 we cut interest
0:18:42 rates and people
0:18:43 get horny about
0:18:44 borrowing money and
0:18:45 buying more shit
0:18:46 and there’s more
0:18:47 money chasing fewer
0:18:48 things and we
0:18:49 start this upward
0:18:50 doom loop of
0:18:51 price where people
0:18:53 start panic buying
0:18:53 because they think
0:18:54 things are going to
0:18:54 get more and more
0:18:56 expensive, you know,
0:18:57 upward inflationary
0:18:58 cycles, unless they
0:18:59 are cauterized early,
0:19:00 can spin out of
0:19:00 control.
0:19:01 And that’s how
0:19:01 nations fail.
0:19:02 Be clear, inflation
0:19:03 is how nations go
0:19:04 out of business.
0:19:06 And so the adult in
0:19:06 the room, Chairman
0:19:07 Powell, has said, he
0:19:08 just came right out
0:19:09 and said it and
0:19:10 said the threat of
0:19:12 the tariffs is why I
0:19:13 have not already cut
0:19:14 rates and why we are
0:19:15 kind of sitting and
0:19:16 waiting.
0:19:18 So be clear, these
0:19:19 tariffs have yet to
0:19:20 take hold in terms
0:19:21 of consumer prices or
0:19:22 inflation because no
0:19:23 one is taking them
0:19:24 seriously because of
0:19:26 the track record of
0:19:27 the president folding,
0:19:28 but it’s already
0:19:31 costing us a great deal
0:19:32 of incremental capital
0:19:33 because interest rates
0:19:35 are probably 25 to 100
0:19:36 bips higher than they
0:19:37 would be had we had a
0:19:38 responsible economic
0:19:39 policy such that the
0:19:40 chairman having beaten
0:19:41 back COVID, having
0:19:43 beaten back inflation
0:19:44 from the supply chain
0:19:46 shocks of COVID and of
0:19:47 Russia’s invasion of
0:19:48 Ukraine, we’d be in a
0:19:49 rate-cutting cycle.
0:19:50 And we’re not because
0:19:52 Chairman Powell correctly
0:19:54 is waiting to see if
0:19:54 these head-up-your-ass
0:19:56 economic policies
0:19:58 companies actually get
0:20:00 traction and register an
0:20:01 impact on the economy.
0:20:02 There’s also a mental
0:20:04 health and paralysis
0:20:06 impact of this as well.
0:20:07 I understand it’s not as
0:20:08 easy to quantify that, but
0:20:09 you have millions of
0:20:10 Americans that essentially
0:20:13 are stuck wondering what
0:20:14 tomorrow, a month from now,
0:20:16 six months from now, are
0:20:16 going to look like.
0:20:18 And that’s everyone who
0:20:19 just needs to buy food for
0:20:21 dinner to someone who has
0:20:22 to run a business.
0:20:25 Yeah, businesses big and
0:20:25 small.
0:20:26 Walmart has said that they
0:20:28 can’t even do, you know,
0:20:30 Q3, Q4 planning because
0:20:32 they don’t know what it’s
0:20:33 going to look like.
0:20:35 And bringing your country,
0:20:37 the engine of the most
0:20:39 powerful country in the
0:20:41 world to a halt because
0:20:44 you want to send strange
0:20:46 letters to heads of state
0:20:47 or you have a bee in your
0:20:49 bonnet about something
0:20:51 that most economists worth
0:20:52 their salt is telling you
0:20:54 is not the way to be
0:20:55 running our country and
0:20:56 certainly not the way to
0:20:57 get the kinds of results
0:20:59 that you are after is an
0:21:01 incredible amount of ego
0:21:02 or hubris.
0:21:02 I don’t even know what
0:21:03 the right term for it is,
0:21:05 but, you know, he was
0:21:06 elected by all of these
0:21:07 people that were laser
0:21:08 focused on lowering
0:21:09 prices.
0:21:10 That was it, right?
0:21:11 They showed up.
0:21:12 Obviously, immigration
0:21:13 voters were about an
0:21:14 eighth of his voters, so
0:21:15 that was the number one
0:21:16 reason.
0:21:17 But in general, people
0:21:18 wanted lower prices.
0:21:20 After a Biden term, he
0:21:21 brought down inflation, but
0:21:21 it was a hugely
0:21:22 inflationary period for
0:21:23 us and for the rest of
0:21:24 the world.
0:21:25 And you look at all of
0:21:26 the actions that he’s
0:21:27 taken and they’re
0:21:29 diametrically opposed to
0:21:30 the goal of lowering
0:21:30 prices.
0:21:32 And Chairman Powell, just
0:21:33 man of steel, right?
0:21:36 This guy just gets up
0:21:37 there and he says exactly
0:21:38 what he wants to say.
0:21:40 He doesn’t sugarcoat any
0:21:40 of it.
0:21:41 There’s the predictable
0:21:42 response that Trump gets
0:21:43 on social media and
0:21:44 interview, whatever it is,
0:21:45 and says, Powell’s got to
0:21:45 go.
0:21:47 You know, he’s bad for
0:21:48 America, et cetera.
0:21:50 But I really admire
0:21:51 someone who is so
0:21:54 fearless in saying
0:21:54 what’s true.
0:21:56 There are a lot of
0:21:57 people who I feel like
0:21:58 are trying to play some
0:22:00 sort of game about how
0:22:01 they treat Trump, right?
0:22:02 They’re either nicer in
0:22:03 for this or they want to
0:22:05 get this kind of reaction.
0:22:06 So they do, you know,
0:22:07 zigzagging around with
0:22:07 it.
0:22:08 And Powell’s just such a
0:22:09 straight shooter about
0:22:10 it.
0:22:11 You know, he says, if you
0:22:12 do this one thing
0:22:13 differently, then I’m
0:22:14 going to be able to give
0:22:15 you the thing that you
0:22:16 want.
0:22:18 And there’s so little
0:22:19 directness, I feel like,
0:22:21 in society right now that
0:22:23 I really love it when I
0:22:24 see it.
0:22:25 And it’s easy for someone
0:22:26 as an analyst to be able
0:22:28 to glom onto that because
0:22:29 you say this is a serious
0:22:30 person who knows what
0:22:32 they’re saying and is not
0:22:34 treating Trump special.
0:22:36 Like, he’s not playing the
0:22:36 game with him.
0:22:37 He’s just saying what’s
0:22:38 true.
0:22:40 Yeah, it’s he’s this guy
0:22:41 will be one of the most
0:22:43 deserving Medal of
0:22:44 Freedom recipients in
0:22:44 history.
0:22:45 And that’ll absolutely
0:22:46 happen as soon as there’s
0:22:47 a Democratic administration
0:22:48 in place.
0:22:49 He really did.
0:22:51 He pulled us back from
0:22:51 COVID.
0:22:53 He basically stuck up the
0:22:54 middle finger and said,
0:22:56 hold my beer to senators on
0:22:57 the far left who were,
0:22:59 you know, crying for people
0:23:00 whose credit card, but that
0:23:01 he needed to lower interest
0:23:02 rates and also on the far
0:23:03 right.
0:23:04 He just didn’t care.
0:23:05 He was very steadfast.
0:23:07 The largest acceleration in
0:23:08 interest rates over a 15
0:23:10 month period in history.
0:23:11 And it was a medicine we
0:23:12 needed to take.
0:23:13 A zero interest rate
0:23:14 environment created some
0:23:16 real externalities and he
0:23:17 immediately course
0:23:17 corrected.
0:23:20 And our inflation under the
0:23:22 Biden administration was
0:23:24 the lowest of the G7 while
0:23:24 our growth was the
0:23:25 strongest.
0:23:27 The affordability thing is
0:23:27 really interesting.
0:23:29 And even if you look at
0:23:31 Momdani’s win in New York
0:23:33 of the Democratic primary,
0:23:34 it was arguably very
0:23:35 similar to Trump.
0:23:37 It was a focus on
0:23:38 affordability and
0:23:39 weaponizing new mediums.
0:23:41 coming at it from a much
0:23:43 different lens, but
0:23:44 basically Trump ran on
0:23:45 affordability and so did
0:23:46 Momdani.
0:23:46 But if you were really
0:23:48 serious about affordability,
0:23:50 you would have a sane
0:23:51 immigration policy that
0:23:52 said, OK, if you’re going
0:23:53 to church and picking
0:23:54 crops and part of our
0:23:55 health care system and
0:23:57 lowering the bills at
0:23:59 grocery stores and in our
0:24:00 health services community,
0:24:01 all right, we’ll figure out
0:24:02 a path to citizenship.
0:24:04 We want to bring in the
0:24:05 most talented immigrants to
0:24:06 start new companies.
0:24:08 We want to ensure there’s
0:24:09 a ton of competition
0:24:10 amongst we’re going to
0:24:11 break up monopolies.
0:24:13 We would never have
0:24:13 tariffs.
0:24:14 We would get together with
0:24:15 some of our partners and
0:24:16 figure out a way to lower
0:24:17 tariffs.
0:24:19 I mean, literally everything.
0:24:21 We would figure out a tax
0:24:22 policy that doesn’t borrow
0:24:24 massive amounts of money
0:24:25 such that interest rates
0:24:27 go down because of the
0:24:28 money or the premium that
0:24:29 we have to offer people on
0:24:30 T-bills doesn’t continue
0:24:31 to increase as our own
0:24:32 balance sheet looks
0:24:33 increasingly risky.
0:24:35 It’s what you said is
0:24:36 exactly right.
0:24:37 I mean, this isn’t the
0:24:38 big, beautiful bill is the
0:24:39 big inflation bill.
0:24:41 I mean, you could assign a
0:24:42 lot of words to this
0:24:44 inflation, depraved, you
0:24:45 know, the anti-Robinhood
0:24:46 bill, whatever you would
0:24:47 want to call it.
0:24:48 But it does appear that he
0:24:52 is dead set on illuminating
0:24:54 or incenting or detonating
0:24:54 inflation again.
0:24:55 All right.
0:24:57 With that, let’s take a
0:24:57 quick break.
0:24:58 Stay with us.
0:25:02 Support for the show comes
0:25:04 from SoFi Small Business
0:25:04 Lending.
0:25:05 You’re a small business
0:25:06 owner, you need capital to
0:25:07 find new opportunities and
0:25:07 grow.
0:25:09 And you can do that with
0:25:09 help from SoFi.
0:25:11 You might know SoFi for
0:25:12 student loans and high
0:25:13 interest savings, but now
0:25:14 they help small businesses
0:25:15 too.
0:25:16 No more chasing bankers or
0:25:17 wasting time in a branch.
0:25:18 SoFi Small Business
0:25:20 Marketplace is your new go-to
0:25:21 fast and digital solution.
0:25:23 In one single simple
0:25:25 search, SoFi matches you
0:25:26 with vetted providers for
0:25:27 your business in just
0:25:27 minutes.
0:25:28 You can discover options
0:25:29 that meet your specific
0:25:30 needs.
0:25:31 And if you find a quote that
0:25:32 works for you, you may
0:25:33 receive funds as soon as the
0:25:34 same day you’re approved.
0:25:36 Say it’s working capital you
0:25:37 need or a line of credit or
0:25:39 an SBA loan or equipment
0:25:39 financing.
0:25:41 SoFi’s Marketplace can help
0:25:42 you find all of the above.
0:25:44 It’s already helped thousands
0:25:45 of small businesses find the
0:25:46 funding they need.
0:25:47 SoFi also offers business
0:25:49 owners curated tools, vetted
0:25:50 business bank accounts,
0:25:51 business credit card
0:25:52 recommendations, and a ton of
0:25:54 resources to help you scale
0:25:55 your business like a boss.
0:25:57 SoFi, now helping you get
0:25:58 your business right.
0:26:00 Visit SoFi.com slash prop
0:26:02 cheap pod and see your
0:26:03 options in minutes.
0:26:06 Support for the show comes
0:26:07 from Grunz.
0:26:08 You’ve heard me talk about
0:26:10 these guys before, but let me
0:26:10 refresh your memory.
0:26:12 Grunz are a convenient,
0:26:13 comprehensive formula packed
0:26:14 into eight delicious gummies
0:26:15 a day.
0:26:17 This isn’t a multivitamin, a
0:26:18 green gummy, or a prebiotic.
0:26:19 It’s all of those things and
0:26:20 then some at a fraction of the
0:26:21 price.
0:26:23 And bonus, it tastes great.
0:26:25 And just in time for summer,
0:26:26 Grunz has a limited edition
0:26:27 raspberry lemonade flavor.
0:26:29 So you can upgrade your
0:26:30 wellness routine with a fun
0:26:31 and refreshing snack pack that
0:26:32 couldn’t be more convenient.
0:26:34 Perfect to toss into your
0:26:35 beach bag, your carry-on, or
0:26:36 wherever your summer travels
0:26:36 take you.
0:26:39 Our Grunz daily snack pack is
0:26:40 vegan, free of nuts, gluten,
0:26:41 and dairy, and made with no
0:26:43 synthetic sweeteners or dyes.
0:26:45 Grunz says their daily snack
0:26:46 pack of eight gummies contains
0:26:47 more than 20 vitamins and
0:26:48 minerals and more than 60
0:26:49 whole food ingredients.
0:26:51 Grab your limited edition
0:26:52 raspberry lemonade Grunz,
0:26:54 get up to 52% off when you go
0:26:55 to Grunz.co and use the
0:26:56 promo code PropG.
0:26:59 That’s G-R-U-N-S dot co and
0:27:01 use the promo code PropG at
0:27:01 checkout.
0:27:08 Support for the show comes
0:27:08 from Square.
0:27:09 Square is the easy way for
0:27:10 business owners to take
0:27:11 payments, book appointments,
0:27:12 manage staff, and keep
0:27:13 everything running in one
0:27:13 place.
0:27:15 It’s behind the scenes of so
0:27:16 many businesses you already
0:27:16 love.
0:27:18 Whether someone’s selling
0:27:19 smoothies, cutting hair,
0:27:20 fixing bikes, or running a
0:27:21 studio, you’ve probably
0:27:23 already encountered Square a
0:27:24 ton as a consumer.
0:27:25 But it’s more than just a
0:27:26 way to pay.
0:27:27 It gives businesses an easy
0:27:28 system to take payments,
0:27:29 manage inventory, run
0:27:30 payroll, send invoices,
0:27:31 access reports in real
0:27:33 time, and track it all from
0:27:34 one place.
0:27:36 And it works wherever you
0:27:36 take your business.
0:27:38 That could be one location
0:27:39 shops, pop-ups, mobile
0:27:40 service businesses, or
0:27:42 multi-location franchises.
0:27:44 And Square supports every
0:27:45 major payment method,
0:27:46 including tap-to-pay.
0:27:47 According to data from
0:27:48 Square, sellers save an
0:27:50 average of 44 hours a month
0:27:51 by skipping bank transfer
0:27:52 delays.
0:27:53 Square helps you run your
0:27:54 business without running
0:27:55 yourself into the ground.
0:27:57 With Square, you get all
0:27:57 the tools to run your
0:27:58 business with none of the
0:28:00 contracts or complexity.
0:28:01 And why wait?
0:28:02 Right now, you can get up to
0:28:04 $200 off Square hardware at
0:28:06 square.com slash go slash
0:28:07 prop G.
0:28:09 That’s S-Q-U-A-R-E dot com
0:28:12 slash go slash prop G.
0:28:13 Run your business smarter with
0:28:13 Square.
0:28:15 Get started today.
0:28:22 Welcome back.
0:28:24 Republicans finally muscled
0:28:25 their big, beautiful bill
0:28:26 through Congress, a sweeping
0:28:28 legislative victory for Trump
0:28:30 that slashes $1.7 trillion in
0:28:32 federal spending, extends his
0:28:34 signature tax cuts, and
0:28:35 enacts major changes to safety
0:28:36 net programs, including
0:28:36 Medicaid.
0:28:38 But now comes the harder
0:28:39 part, selling it.
0:28:40 Polls show most Americans
0:28:42 either dislike the bill or
0:28:43 don’t know what’s in it.
0:28:45 And with midterms looming,
0:28:47 GOP lawmakers are sprinting to
0:28:49 define the law before Democrats
0:28:50 do it for them.
0:28:52 Jess, Republicans are touting
0:28:54 the bill’s populist pieces like
0:28:55 eliminating taxes on tips.
0:28:57 But how are they planning to
0:28:59 explain the projected 12
0:29:01 million Americans who are
0:29:02 likely going to lose their
0:29:03 Medicaid coverage?
0:29:04 Well, they’re going to have an
0:29:05 election before you lose your
0:29:06 Medicaid coverage.
0:29:08 So that’s how they’re going to
0:29:08 do it.
0:29:09 You know, they were very
0:29:11 specific about the timing of
0:29:11 everything.
0:29:14 Like, no tax on tips actually
0:29:15 expires in 2028.
0:29:17 Tax cuts for the wealthiest,
0:29:18 that lives forever.
0:29:19 But if you’re going to get no
0:29:20 tax on tips, which, by the way,
0:29:22 only goes up to the first
0:29:23 twenty five thousand dollars
0:29:24 that you make in tips.
0:29:26 So that’s a very low cap.
0:29:29 Anyway, that’ll be around for
0:29:29 the midterms.
0:29:31 But you won’t know if your
0:29:32 Medicaid is going away until
0:29:33 after you cast your vote.
0:29:35 I still expect that the
0:29:37 Democrats will do well in
0:29:38 the midterms because
0:29:39 historically that’s what
0:29:39 happens.
0:29:40 But they were very, very
0:29:43 crafty in the timing about
0:29:44 all of this.
0:29:46 They also told this
0:29:48 monster lie about
0:29:50 what would happen if we
0:29:52 didn’t pass the one big
0:29:52 beautiful bill.
0:29:54 They would say your tax
0:29:55 cuts would expire from the
0:29:56 twenty seventeen
0:29:57 Trump plan.
0:29:59 But that’s not true.
0:30:00 It’s not like you would wake
0:30:01 up the next day and
0:30:02 suddenly you wouldn’t have a
0:30:02 tax cut anymore.
0:30:04 Congress would actually have
0:30:06 six months to deal with
0:30:07 this and they could work out
0:30:07 something in a bipartisan
0:30:08 fashion.
0:30:09 And they’ve done this before.
0:30:12 So that was the pressure
0:30:14 that people felt and they
0:30:15 thought the average
0:30:17 American that you were
0:30:18 going again to wake up on
0:30:20 July 5th or whatever day
0:30:22 we were going to say it is
0:30:23 and that suddenly you were
0:30:24 going to have an enormous
0:30:26 income tax bill or a huge
0:30:28 bill for your small
0:30:28 business.
0:30:31 So that was one pervasive
0:30:31 lie.
0:30:32 And then you have the stuff
0:30:33 about the work requirements
0:30:34 for Medicaid.
0:30:36 Scott Besson, again, very
0:30:37 smug talking about able
0:30:38 bodied Americans that just
0:30:39 don’t want to work.
0:30:40 They always go back to
0:30:41 quote unquote welfare queens
0:30:42 about all of this.
0:30:44 We know that only 8% of
0:30:45 people who receive Medicaid
0:30:46 would even fall into that
0:30:47 category.
0:30:48 You’re not going to pay for
0:30:49 the trillions that you’re
0:30:50 putting into the deficit
0:30:52 with those 8%.
0:30:54 And they just don’t want to
0:30:56 tell you the truth about
0:30:58 what’s going on in these
0:30:58 kinds of bills.
0:30:59 They don’t want to tell you
0:31:00 about who’s getting the
0:31:01 kickbacks.
0:31:04 Steve Ratner created a
0:31:05 beautiful chart of all of
0:31:08 the evaluations and all the
0:31:09 nonpartisan ones, all the
0:31:11 partisan ones, and even
0:31:12 right wing partisan
0:31:14 organizations have talked
0:31:15 about this ballooning the
0:31:17 deficit and that people will
0:31:18 lose their health care,
0:31:19 tax foundation, Cato.
0:31:21 And the only group of
0:31:23 economic advisors or
0:31:25 economic panel that says
0:31:27 that it’s going to be a
0:31:28 boon for the American
0:31:30 economy overall comes
0:31:31 right out of the White
0:31:31 House.
0:31:32 And they obviously have a
0:31:33 vested interest in saying
0:31:33 that.
0:31:36 but it just feels very
0:31:37 much like beating a dead
0:31:37 horse.
0:31:38 The American public hates
0:31:39 this bill.
0:31:40 Net favorables range from
0:31:42 negative 19 to negative 29.
0:31:44 49% say the bill is going to
0:31:45 hurt their family.
0:31:47 23% only say that it’s going
0:31:47 to help.
0:31:48 So you start out with a
0:31:49 baseline that the American
0:31:51 public knows that this is a
0:31:51 bad thing.
0:31:52 But then you get into the
0:31:54 issue of like, well, what are
0:31:55 you going to do about it?
0:31:56 How are you going to talk
0:31:57 about a thing that may not
0:31:59 affect people tomorrow?
0:32:01 like I and I know that
0:32:03 people have made this case,
0:32:04 but I don’t think it’s been
0:32:05 made strongly enough.
0:32:06 And I want to hear it all
0:32:07 the time that a tax and
0:32:09 spend bill more so than
0:32:10 probably anything else that
0:32:12 the government does is a
0:32:13 moral document.
0:32:15 It is a statement of your
0:32:17 values and your priorities.
0:32:19 And the GOP is very
0:32:20 clearly saying our
0:32:22 priorities are the rich.
0:32:23 Our priorities are
0:32:26 deporting millions of
0:32:27 people who are here.
0:32:28 I mean, the ICE funding and
0:32:29 I want to get your take on
0:32:31 that more than the
0:32:33 IDF now, that’s how
0:32:34 much we’re funding these
0:32:37 guys wearing masks that
0:32:38 are driving around in
0:32:39 unmarked vans, picking
0:32:39 people up.
0:32:41 And this not anti-law
0:32:42 enforcement.
0:32:43 I’m thrilled that we have
0:32:45 zero border crossings now.
0:32:46 I think that that’s a very
0:32:47 good thing and something
0:32:48 that the country needed
0:32:50 and desperately wanted,
0:32:51 which is why a lot of
0:32:52 people held their nose and
0:32:53 voted for Donald Trump
0:32:53 because they didn’t think
0:32:54 the Democrats were serious
0:32:55 about immigration.
0:32:58 But when you look at
0:32:59 these priorities and
0:33:00 and I’m sure, you know,
0:33:01 there are bits in there
0:33:02 cutting red tape for small
0:33:03 businesses.
0:33:04 Some seniors will get a
0:33:05 6K deduction.
0:33:06 Those are good things.
0:33:07 You know, I’m not saying
0:33:08 that there’s nothing in the
0:33:11 bill that’s decent, but
0:33:14 overall, it’s a signal that
0:33:15 this is a morally bankrupt
0:33:16 party.
0:33:18 And they all said as much on
0:33:19 the record and then just
0:33:20 went ahead and voted for it
0:33:21 anyway.
0:33:23 Yeah, a lot there.
0:33:24 So let’s go from the small
0:33:26 to the profound.
0:33:27 First off, this populist
0:33:28 bullshit around no taxes on
0:33:29 tips.
0:33:29 What percentage of the
0:33:31 working population would you
0:33:32 guess get tips?
0:33:33 I’m going to make a bad
0:33:34 guess.
0:33:35 It’s 2%.
0:33:36 What?
0:33:36 Yeah.
0:33:38 2% of Americans make money
0:33:39 on tips.
0:33:39 Oh.
0:33:41 And it’s just never made
0:33:42 any sense to me.
0:33:42 I was a waiter.
0:33:44 I was growing up.
0:33:45 I was both a dishwasher and a
0:33:45 waiter.
0:33:47 So when I was a dishwasher, I
0:33:49 wouldn’t get a tax cut.
0:33:50 But when I was a waiter, I got
0:33:50 a tax cut.
0:33:52 And then first off, anyone
0:33:53 who’s getting tips, especially
0:33:56 with a $25,000 limit on it, it
0:33:57 means they’re not paying a lot
0:33:58 of federal income tax to begin
0:33:58 with.
0:33:59 This is populist bullshit that
0:34:01 has no impact on people or the
0:34:02 economy.
0:34:05 And what I find more upsetting,
0:34:07 I’m all down for blaming the
0:34:08 Republicans on this.
0:34:09 I think this is both cruel and
0:34:11 stupid, which adds up to
0:34:12 depraved.
0:34:14 And I think you can lay the
0:34:15 majority of the blame at the
0:34:16 feet of the administration and
0:34:18 the Republicans who are scared
0:34:19 of being primaried and pretend
0:34:21 to give a good goddamn and say,
0:34:22 I would never cut Medicaid and
0:34:24 then grab their ankles when push
0:34:27 comes to shove or decide to sell
0:34:28 out the lower 48 to protect
0:34:30 their folks, Senator Murkowski.
0:34:33 You know, this is absolutely the
0:34:34 majority of the blame lies with
0:34:35 them.
0:34:36 But what’s more frightening, Jess,
0:34:38 is to your point, this isn’t
0:34:39 fiscal policy.
0:34:40 It’s a reflection on our
0:34:40 values.
0:34:42 And I think in America, there’s a
0:34:45 dangerous trend that my dad used
0:34:46 to say America is a terrible place
0:34:47 to be stupid.
0:34:50 And that was sort of an unkind way
0:34:52 of saying it’s a terrible place to
0:34:53 be vulnerable.
0:34:57 And essentially, I think America, not
0:34:58 just Republicans, but America has
0:35:01 decided that we believe in a
0:35:03 Hunger Games-like economy, that the
0:35:04 bottom 90 percent are effectively
0:35:07 nutrition for the top 10 percent
0:35:09 because people are willing to put up
0:35:11 with that depravity because they’re
0:35:13 hoping at some point they’ll be in that
0:35:13 top 10 percent.
0:35:16 And they’re also conflating, you know,
0:35:18 some of these really ugly ice raids and
0:35:21 knees on heads and 14-year-olds crying as
0:35:24 their mother is carted away and hearing
0:35:27 about a kid who is a paraplegic not being
0:35:28 able to afford his medication or his
0:35:29 physical therapy.
0:35:32 They sort of begrudgingly say, well,
0:35:34 thoughts and prayers, but they see that as
0:35:35 leadership.
0:35:36 They see that as, in a weird way,
0:35:38 masculinity and toughness.
0:35:40 I think this goes beyond something much
0:35:43 deeper and more upsetting about America.
0:35:46 And to your point, let’s be hopeful.
0:35:49 It’s that Americans haven’t been or
0:35:51 Democrats haven’t done a good job
0:35:52 connecting this to people because the
0:35:54 majority of people who will probably be
0:35:57 thrown off Medicaid, maybe a lot of us
0:35:59 don’t come in contact with or we don’t
0:36:00 know that our neighbor is on Medicaid.
0:36:04 So I never like to miss an opportunity
0:36:05 to talk about myself.
0:36:09 I’ll go through just how these cuts would
0:36:11 literally pull up the ladder behind me.
0:36:14 I’m sitting here in this, like, out of
0:36:17 control, over-the-top explosion and
0:36:19 wealth in Ibiza.
0:36:21 And, you know, the bad thing about getting
0:36:23 older, and you’ll realize this, I think
0:36:26 you’re further along in sort of self-awareness
0:36:27 than I was at your age.
0:36:29 But up until the point when I was your
0:36:31 age, I credited my grit and my character
0:36:33 for all my success.
0:36:35 It was about me being a baller and me
0:36:37 being talented and me taking risks and
0:36:40 overcoming some hardship.
0:36:42 And then as you get older, you realize a
0:36:44 lot of your success is not your fault.
0:36:47 And what I’ve come to recognize, and I can
0:36:49 attach many of these things to what’s under
0:36:52 attack right now, starting when I was nine
0:36:54 years old, I got assisted lunch.
0:36:57 My mom made $800 a month as a secretary.
0:37:00 And so we qualified for assisted lunch.
0:37:02 And one of the things I remember about that,
0:37:04 and I didn’t find out, I was nine, so I didn’t
0:37:05 know what was going on.
0:37:06 One of the things I found out a few years
0:37:09 later, and it just shows so much dignity and so
0:37:10 much grace on the part of California taxpayers
0:37:14 and our government, was they purposely sent the
0:37:15 coupons to my house.
0:37:18 And every kid had the same coupon, so no one
0:37:21 would know that I was on assisted lunch because
0:37:22 they wanted to avoid the stigma.
0:37:25 And I thought that was the most graceful thing,
0:37:27 one of the most American things.
0:37:30 When I was in high school, when I was 17, and I’ve
0:37:32 talked openly about this, my mom who passed 20
0:37:34 years ago, I don’t think would have a problem
0:37:35 with this.
0:37:39 My mom became pregnant at 47 and was able to
0:37:41 access safe, affordable family planning.
0:37:46 Had we lived in this era in a red state, you
0:37:47 know, we weren’t very sophisticated.
0:37:48 We didn’t have a lot of money.
0:37:51 If my mom had been forced to carry a child and
0:37:54 unwanted pregnancy to term, I was installing
0:37:55 shelving, making decent money at the time.
0:37:57 I would have not gone to UCLA.
0:38:00 I would not have had the opportunity to start
0:38:02 this upward spiral, courtesy of the Regency
0:38:05 University of California, that quite frankly,
0:38:07 and I’m bragging now, has produced tens of
0:38:10 millions of dollars in tax revenue and thousands
0:38:10 of jobs.
0:38:12 I just would have, I would have never had the
0:38:16 opportunity to go to college had it been my mom
0:38:19 and a newborn, and then when I got to UCLA, I got
0:38:20 Pell Grants.
0:38:22 That’s the only way I could afford to be at UCLA.
0:38:26 And a third of Pell Grant recipients, under this
0:38:28 big, beautiful bill, are either going to have their
0:38:30 grants reduced or eliminated.
0:38:33 When I got out of college, I was able to raise a shit
0:38:34 ton of money.
0:38:34 Why?
0:38:38 Because foreign investors loved investing in U.S.
0:38:41 startups because they saw rule of law, because they
0:38:46 saw all types of technology that had been funded by the U.S.
0:38:48 government, which didn’t have to pay a trillion dollars in
0:38:50 interest payments so they could invest in these crazy
0:38:51 things called GPS and the Internet.
0:38:54 All of my companies were built on the backbone of
0:38:58 technologies financed with these extraordinary, irrational
0:38:59 investments from the U.S.
0:39:01 government because they had the capital to make these
0:39:02 forward-leaning investments.
0:39:04 Literally, my company has been built on the back of
0:39:07 immigrants and an America that said, if you are really
0:39:10 fucking talented and want to work hard, come here and we
0:39:11 will put you to work.
0:39:16 All of these things that have built this life and this
0:39:20 prosperity and these millions in tax revenue, every one of
0:39:22 them is under attack.
0:39:26 And it is so disappointing that more people with my blessings of
0:39:32 my generation can’t do the math and reverse engineer this to
0:39:35 one thing, and that is we are torching, we are burning the ships
0:39:37 behind us, we are pulling up the ladders.
0:39:41 It’s so disappointing, beyond the moral argument.
0:39:43 It’s like, you don’t want your kids to have the same
0:39:44 opportunities we had.
0:39:48 And I’ll even go more meta than this and be more dramatic and
0:39:49 more hysterical.
0:39:49 Oh, good.
0:39:57 My mom was a four-year-old Jew sleeping in the tube stations at
0:39:59 night because her house had been bombed during the blitzkrieg.
0:40:03 And America was so alarmed, they decided to convert
0:40:08 factories from producing Buicks to producing tanks.
0:40:12 And they decided that 400,000 households should have a gold
0:40:14 star in the window and lose their sons because it was worth it to
0:40:15 push back on fascism.
0:40:17 They were not pushing back on anti-Semitism.
0:40:20 They were pushing back on fascism.
0:40:21 And what’s fascism?
0:40:25 Demonization of immigrants, a refusal to condemn violence against
0:40:28 your political enemies, and extreme nationalism.
0:40:28 Sound familiar?
0:40:33 And had America not had a gag reflex on emerging fascism in
0:40:36 Europe, my mom’s life would have ended with a train ride.
0:40:37 I wouldn’t even be here.
0:40:44 So all of these things, a gag reflex on fascism, providing
0:40:48 opportunities for young people, safe, affordable family planning
0:40:52 and rights for women, deep pools of capital such that people
0:40:55 could start business, a culture that invites the best and brightest
0:40:59 to help people build businesses and leverage that capital.
0:41:00 All that shit is under attack.
0:41:02 It’s literally under attack.
0:41:05 I find it so deeply rattling and disturbing.
0:41:10 And I’m pissed off that Democrats just scream and get angry and talk
0:41:11 about Medicare.
0:41:11 I get it.
0:41:14 Medicare, that’s that’s one part of the story.
0:41:19 But show me anybody in my generation who has made their wealth, not
0:41:20 inherited, but made their wealth.
0:41:25 In about two fucking minutes, I can show you why this bill is attacking
0:41:31 the reason that you are in Ibiza or in the Hamptons or in Aspen and that
0:41:35 you have decided, no, no one else gets to come here except my kids.
0:41:37 Speech over.
0:41:42 I’m overwhelmed by it and moved.
0:41:44 It’s a great American story.
0:41:51 And it’s not often that people are telling it in such honest terms.
0:41:57 The details are what matter and what create connective tissue amongst Americans.
0:42:00 And right now when we talk about this a lot, that Americans feel completely
0:42:01 disconnected from one another.
0:42:02 You live in your bubbles.
0:42:06 And I wish more people would speak up like that and would be telling those
0:42:07 kinds of stories.
0:42:11 And I know that it is difficult if you also have a business to protect.
0:42:14 And there are a lot of people, even immigrants, that there are heads at these
0:42:18 big companies that feel like they can’t do it, that they have to show up at
0:42:21 inauguration and they have to kiss the ring because they have to make sure that
0:42:23 they continue to make their bottom line.
0:42:28 But it does feel like the very fabric of America is being torn apart.
0:42:31 And I think that’s important to emphasize.
0:42:35 But I also, you know, put on a strategist cap.
0:42:40 And I think about, you know, how much we talked about January 6th or the death of
0:42:46 democracy and, you know, fascism is coming and people didn’t want to vote for that.
0:42:49 They wanted to vote for better grocery prices.
0:42:49 Right.
0:42:51 Or they wanted to vote for a closed border.
0:42:56 And so you have to be really strategic and smart about how you do this.
0:43:00 The reality is that nearly half of Americans haven’t heard anything about the Big
0:43:01 Beautiful Bill.
0:43:03 So those who have heard about it have a very negative view of it.
0:43:10 Only 8% have said that the Medicaid cuts are a detail of a bill that they know about.
0:43:14 That’s going to come for a lot of these people after the midterms, like I said.
0:43:19 So it’s emotional to think about this and to think about the impact on the young people,
0:43:21 like you said, of pulling up the ladder.
0:43:24 You know, what’s going to happen with your student loans, for instance.
0:43:28 I mean, people just are not going to be able to go to graduate school or college for that
0:43:29 matter.
0:43:31 It’s just not going to be happening anymore.
0:43:32 We’re going to become less educated.
0:43:37 We’re also going to be able to import less educated people because why would you want to
0:43:38 come here?
0:43:43 I don’t know what America looks like when this is over, but I do know that millions of Americans
0:43:45 were not happy with the way that it’s going.
0:43:49 And Democrats have got to thread that needle better.
0:43:53 And I don’t want to I don’t want to turn every session into like a shitting on Democrat
0:43:54 session.
0:43:59 Like there’s not a lot that you can do when you don’t have the numbers, but people don’t
0:44:04 feel inspired and they don’t feel like they have a good alternative to this.
0:44:10 A friend of mine who’s a great Democratic strategist was talking about it and he said, essentially,
0:44:16 we’re on trend for 2017 when they tried to do the ACA repeal and we had a very good midterms
0:44:17 there in 2018.
0:44:23 But it’s going to take a lot of work over the next 18 months to impress upon people just
0:44:27 exactly what has happened to the country.
0:44:33 And we know that it’s not that effective to be telling people like, well, this is what your
0:44:34 lived reality is.
0:44:34 Right.
0:44:35 This is what your experience is.
0:44:37 People know what their experiences are.
0:44:42 And if we don’t seem like a decent alternative, then maybe they sit at home.
0:44:43 Maybe they don’t care.
0:44:49 But more so, maybe they just become completely or even further disenchanted with the American
0:44:49 project.
0:44:56 What Democrats do you think are doing a decent job of attaching this bill to real life who
0:45:02 you think that is actually showing some of that fire and ability to connect this to everyday
0:45:04 Americans who other Democrats can model?
0:45:11 I mean, all of the swing Democrats, I think, do a great job of this because sometimes they’re
0:45:14 not as good on social or whatever.
0:45:16 We don’t pay a lot of attention to it.
0:45:21 But like the Jared Goldens of the world, Pat Ryan, you know, when you win races like that,
0:45:26 you know something about how to talk to people and how to make those connections.
0:45:32 If you look at Mallory McMorrow, who we’re going to have on the podcast running for Senate
0:45:40 in Michigan, outraised her primary opponent who has a lot more institutional support because
0:45:43 she’s talking about this like a normal person.
0:45:48 And she’s also saying to the Mom Donnie question, like business as usual, it’s not working for
0:45:48 us.
0:45:53 I mean, people, they want change if they’re not going to get them.
0:45:55 We’re going to talk about the third party thing with Elon.
0:46:01 If these are going to be your options, you have to find a way to turn into an outsider
0:46:03 party while still being on the inside.
0:46:09 And one of my colleagues at Fox, I think it was Kellyanne, said that Donald Trump reformed
0:46:11 the Republican Party from within.
0:46:15 He essentially created a third party from within the Republican infrastructure.
0:46:19 And Democrats need some of that.
0:46:26 They need an internal revolution at this point to inspire people and to make you think that
0:46:29 the status quo is not good enough for any of us.
0:46:33 And I wanted to ask you this because it’s been weighing on me.
0:46:37 Like, I love my job, but I don’t love my job.
0:46:43 And I can’t imagine loving a job enough that I would vote for something that I admitted would
0:46:47 strip health care from hundreds of thousands of people that I represent.
0:46:55 What is the point of staying in office if you can’t help the people that you allegedly signed
0:46:57 up to improve the lives of?
0:47:00 It’s such a profound question.
0:47:06 And I ask myself the same question all the time, that at what point if I mean, literally
0:47:12 if if the president said we have to stop all funding for premature birth wards, would they
0:47:14 do it at this point?
0:47:17 Like, where would they draw the line?
0:47:19 Where would they say we won’t do it?
0:47:23 Because the only people who didn’t vote for this thing were people who basically said I’m
0:47:25 not running again, especially in the Senate.
0:47:28 So I don’t I struggle with this, too.
0:47:33 And I don’t have a good answer other than they’re too fucking old and they literally think if I
0:47:36 leave here, I’m just going to go home and start to die.
0:47:38 And I lose all relevance and all importance.
0:47:44 Do you have any additional thoughts on why these folks just refuse to be the kind of the
0:47:46 leaders we ask them to be?
0:47:48 Power corrupts.
0:47:53 Yeah, these are very important jobs and we treat them like many kings.
0:47:59 And queens to some degree, right, especially with the way the media apparatus works now.
0:48:00 But I can’t.
0:48:06 I can’t come up with what the line would be, except for the very few that actually did find
0:48:11 their line, whether it was the deficit or Medicaid cuts for Tom Tillis.
0:48:13 But, you know, the ball is rolling.
0:48:17 There’s already a rural hospital in Nebraska that’s closed.
0:48:22 And they said that this is because of the bill, that they’re not going to be able to stay in
0:48:24 business moving forward as a result.
0:48:28 And you’re going to see a lot of that and people getting asked tough questions.
0:48:35 And I think the answer is going to be, you know, what caliber of candidate on the Democratic
0:48:40 side is going to show up to run races against these vulnerable Republicans?
0:48:43 Because the map, there are already a lot of them on it.
0:48:45 And they just put even bigger targets on their back.
0:48:51 You know, there are going to be some very interesting races, hard fought races and all of this.
0:49:01 And we got to find the way to be inspirational and different and revolutionary within the system
0:49:07 that we’re working in, because people look at Washington and they just say, I don’t see anything for me.
0:49:14 Yeah. And one of the bright spots about Momdami’s win is, and I want to be clear, I would not have
0:49:18 voted for the guy. A lot of his positions are very troubling to me and a lot of his current, his
0:49:24 public policy ideas make no fucking sense to me, like sponsored bread lines in the form of state
0:49:29 sponsored or state controlled grocery stores. But having said that, along the lines of what you’re
0:49:34 saying, we need a revolution within the Democratic Party to remake the party. And it’s got to start
0:49:38 with young people who understand these new technologies, these new mediums, are unafraid,
0:49:44 new ideas, and are willing to just sort of step up and say, all right, it is time to shed
0:49:50 a new layer of skin. Any ideas? Who do you think, if looking at the positive side of Donald Trump,
0:49:57 who was sort of the, you know, the William Wallace of that revolution, if you had to bet on one or two
0:50:02 or three people who you think could be that, that William Wallace of reshaping the Democratic
0:50:06 Party, do you see any likely candidates or is it still kind of TBD?
0:50:13 I mean, it’s a little TBD, but I think on the more centrist, you know, moderate Dem side of things,
0:50:20 I think Elisa Slotkin is offering people a lot. And she was the one who came out there and said,
0:50:25 you know, this is my plan, right? This is what I think the future of the Democratic Party looks like.
0:50:30 You know, she does the cursing in the right places. She has the resume to back all of it up.
0:50:36 I just think that there’s so much that we can learn from people that have won these difficult races and
0:50:43 that oftentimes we just go back to the folks who have the loudest voices or who give the best
0:50:47 interviews, etc. But they obviously don’t know the same things as the folks that went out there and
0:50:53 connected with people that have supported Republicans their whole life or who split ticket for Donald Trump
0:50:59 and for them. You know, it’s happening all over the country and there are people out there that are
0:51:04 worth your time, even if their politics aren’t exactly aligned with ours. Like we had Greg Kassar
0:51:10 from Texas on the podcast. He’s way to the left of where I am. But, you know, you have a lot of people
0:51:18 in the middle who are saying that they like AOC the best because AOC seems like she’s got the fight in
0:51:20 her and that she’s on the right side of history.
0:51:26 I’m afraid, you know, agreed. Yeah. The problem I have with the far left and I think they’re as guilty
0:51:32 or more guilty of this in the far right and I’ve been subject to it is if you’re a moderate and
0:51:38 occasionally see merit in Republican ideas, you’re treated like an apostate. Yeah. Like, you know,
0:51:42 the right calls me a libtar. They just write me off, but they’ll bring me on Fox and they’re actually
0:51:47 quite polite to me as I think they’re mostly polite to you and appreciate you. On the far left,
0:51:53 I can’t tell you how many mean, angry emails I got from people I know and like and consider me a friend
0:51:58 and I consider them a friend when I started saying Biden’s too fucking old. Yeah. It’s like you either
0:52:05 sign up for the cult and the narrative or you are the enemy. And the far left is as guilty of it as
0:52:12 anybody. And the Democratic Party needs to do a better job of embracing imperfect allies. And when I’m at
0:52:17 conferences and I see people, Democrats playing identity politics and talking about the
0:52:24 patriarchy and if you don’t sign up for every right word for the orthodoxy, you’re the problem.
0:52:29 And it’s like, just as the settlers figured out a way to get Native Americans fighting amongst each
0:52:37 other, kill each other first, and then we’ll come in for cleanup. The Democrats are just the level of
0:52:44 interesting warfare is so unproductive. It’s like, I absolutely think AOC’s policies,
0:52:50 many of them don’t make any fucking sense. I will give money to her. I think she’s wonderful.
0:52:57 I retweet her shit. I think she’s fantastic. But what I find on the left is if you don’t sign up for
0:53:03 the right narrative, basically people attack you and say, OK, maybe we’re allies, but you’re holding
0:53:10 the gun wrong. This is this is the narrative. This demand for ideological consistency is so
0:53:17 ridiculous. No actual human being is totally in lockstep with a party platform. And that’s what
0:53:20 Trump did for the right. It works and it connects.
0:53:26 Yeah. I mean, we’re going to need a bigger boat. But I also think the identity politics of the left
0:53:32 has gotten out of control. It doesn’t do us any good to begin assigning values and identifying or
0:53:38 immediately prescribing validity or a lack thereof based on who’s saying it as opposed to what they’re
0:53:44 saying. And I feel like the Democrats don’t even recognize how biased they are against statements
0:53:51 solely based on who’s saying it. And I feel that the Democrats are actually probably more guilty of
0:53:56 this than Republicans that, OK, if you’re an old white dude, I have to take everything you say with
0:54:01 a grain of salt and I am ready to weigh in and get my guardians of gotcha pen. I am going so far off
0:54:07 script here. Jess, let’s bring it home. Our producer is trying to rein me in. Let’s take a quick break.
0:54:13 Stay with us. We’re going to talk about this guy who’s in technology, who’s actually from South
0:54:16 Africa. His name is Elon Musk. Oh, haven’t heard of him. Yeah.
0:54:25 Workday knows there are two kinds of people in business. Backward thinkers and forward thinkers.
0:54:31 And when you’re a forward thinker, you need an AI platform that thinks like you do. Built to evolve with
0:54:38 your organization, Workday reimagines how you manage your people, money and agents for long-term success.
0:54:45 Bringing all your most valuable resources onto one powerful platform so you can add value even faster.
0:54:48 Workday. Moving business forever forward.
0:54:55 Welcome back. Before we go, Elon Musk says he’s launching a third political party.
0:55:03 Oh, God, Jess. Save me. Literally save me. Called the America Party. OK. Yeah.
0:55:10 A South African immigrant who went to school in Canada, who disowns his daughter on Joe Rogan’s
0:55:15 podcast and is being sued concurrently by two women for sole custody of their child because he spends no
0:55:20 time with them. Yeah, that’s the guy to start a third party. He says it’s meant to challenge what he
0:55:26 calls a one-party system that’s driving the country into debt. And he timed the announcement just days
0:55:31 after Trump signed his massive domestic policy bill into law. Bill Musk once backed, then blasted,
0:55:34 and now calls the final straw. He’s had it, Jess. He’s had it. Anyways,
0:55:39 Musk insists the new party will focus on a handful of swing districts in the midterms,
0:55:42 but Trump allies weren’t it could fracture the right at a time when margins are razor thin.
0:55:49 That’s fair. And then there’s the Epstein factor. After months of teasing bombshell revelations,
0:55:53 the Justice Department just announced there isn’t a client list, isn’t a cover-up,
0:55:59 and no more new documents are coming. Well, that’s a 180. That hasn’t stopped Musk from fanning the
0:56:05 flames or from accusing Trump of being part of some kind of cover-up. Jess, what’s going on here?
0:56:09 What’s he trying to accomplish? A third party isn’t exactly, I don’t know, we’ve been to this movie
0:56:13 before. How much trouble do you think he can actually cause for Trump and the GOP?
0:56:22 Not very much. Like, on the fringes, it’s possible to have an effect with a third-party candidate. Like,
0:56:28 actually, in an Ohio district, Marcy Kaptor, who’s the Democrat there, I think this is her 22nd term,
0:56:34 been there a long time, the Democrats funneled money into a libertarian candidate’s campaign,
0:56:39 I think about $400K, to shave off support from the Republican candidate that was challenging her,
0:56:44 and she ended up winning her race. So those are ways that you can use third parties to play around
0:56:49 and make a difference. But in terms of what’s going to happen at the presidential level, it makes no
0:56:57 difference. And if you want to have a government that’s more representative to the public, then you
0:57:02 need to have proportional representation. And we can’t have winner-take-all anymore. And there are a lot
0:57:08 of people that would get on board with that, but would obviously never be able to pass and get through.
0:57:15 So, you know, Musk is throwing his toys out of the proverbial stroller. He’s pissed off. This happened
0:57:20 before, and he essentially came back groveling to Trump. And I imagine that that’s what’s going to happen
0:57:26 because, you know, money matters, of course, and being the richest man on the planet is a very big deal. But
0:57:33 Donald Trump has shown himself to be more powerful than Musk. And I think even the way that he’s treating
0:57:39 him on social media about this, you know, talking down to him, it’s very paternalistic, actually,
0:57:45 how he’s dealing with him. Like, baby Elon is mad. Give him his space. And, you know, they toss around
0:57:49 stuff like, I’m going to look into your immigration status or whatever. But in general, I feel like
0:57:56 he’s going to get over it. And he has to get back to Tesla and, you know, try managing that. And I think,
0:58:01 you know, he’s mad about the debt, but he’s mostly mad about the EV credits. Right. That’s what this is.
0:58:07 Everyone is always just actually concerned with themselves and their personal bottom line. So I
0:58:09 think it’s going to end up being a big nothing burger.
0:58:15 Yeah. I mean, there’s a few things here. There’s the motivation for doing it and the effectiveness.
0:58:21 The motivation is all of a sudden he’s decided the president is a pedophile and that this bill is
0:58:27 fiscally irresponsible. There is no new information from when he loved the president.
0:58:27 Correct.
0:58:33 There are no new revelations about Trump and Epstein. The end of the EV subsidies, the massive increase in
0:58:38 the deficit were all present when he was showing up to the White House in a Hot Topic uniform high on
0:58:45 ketamine. This is about Elon Musk being angry he’s no longer the first friend. So that is not the basis
0:58:52 or the substance or the heft to start a third political party. And then the question is, will
0:58:57 a third political party, does it have any viability? And it doesn’t in America. We have a two party system
0:59:02 because of gerrymandering, because of a winner take all environment. When we have proportional
0:59:07 representation in places like Sweden and Germany, a third, a fourth and a fifth party can have a lot of
0:59:11 influence because they get proportionate representative based on if they get 18 percent of the vote, they
0:59:18 get 18 percent of the representatives. What a third party ends up being is spoilers, right? So Ross
0:59:23 Perot got 18 percent. Ross Perot is the reason Bill Clinton won presidency. George Herbert Walker Bush was
0:59:28 the first incumbent to lose an election when there wasn’t a recession because Perot took 18 percent,
0:59:36 about 11 percent was drawn from Bush’s voter base, seven from Clinton. So a swing of 4 percent, which swung
0:59:42 it from being a landslide for Bush to a decided victory for Clinton. The same thing happened to Gore
0:59:49 because of Nader. Jill Stein played a role. So these third parties are not viable. The last time a third
0:59:57 party won a state was Wallace, I think, in 68. But they can be spoilers. I think this is over before it starts.
1:00:04 I think it’s going to get no traction. What he can have is enormous influence because there’s a decent
1:00:09 argument that he’s the guy that got Trump elected with a quarter of a billion dollars and a huge platform in
1:00:13 seven swing states and a small number of counties in those seven swing states. You can make an argument
1:00:20 that in, you know, two or three of those states, Musk may have swung the election for Trump. If he is able to focus
1:00:28 on four or six senatorial and 12 or 15 house races, he could have a huge impact because those people are
1:00:34 very loyal to whoever puts him in office. One thing that Peter Thiel will never hear from J.D. Vance is the
1:00:41 word no because Peter Thiel put J.D. Vance in office. So he could have enormous influence. But this third
1:00:47 party nonsense is over before it begins. And be clear, folks, Elon Musk isn’t worried about the
1:00:52 deficit. He isn’t worried about America’s future. He’s just, quite frankly, he’s really butthurt and
1:00:55 he’s angry and he’s looking for revenge. Your thoughts?
1:01:02 I agree. And you saw also how quickly Elon Musk faded from favor of the Republican Party. Once
1:01:07 he started opposing the bill, he was persona non grata. I understand that this coincided with him
1:01:13 also leaving the White House, but he’s not walking around with Trump and Dana White anymore. So no one
1:01:20 really cares that much. You’re right about the money, like the example I was giving in Ohio. But he is
1:01:25 on to something that’s really important. You know, we have the highest number of Americans that identify
1:01:29 as a political independent. That doesn’t mean that they don’t have right or left leanings, but it means
1:01:35 that they don’t want to be part of this two party system that pushes you into boxes where you don’t
1:01:41 feel like you belong. And there was a massive study of almost 20,000 people that looked at how
1:01:45 independents feel about the major parties. Sixty four percent have an unfavorable opinion of the
1:01:51 Democratic Party and 71 percent have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party. We need to do
1:01:57 better. We need parties that look more like America, that are more responsive to America and their
1:02:03 concerns. It’s a huge branding challenge, you know, something that you’re great at assessing. But when
1:02:11 Musk says we need another option, we need an alternative, almost everybody says that’s objectively true.
1:02:19 We just need to find a way to make that feasible or possible for folks or to at least give them some
1:02:24 inkling that we understand how badly they want things to change.
1:02:29 So just before we wrap up here, Jess, I need you to get under the president’s skin again.
1:02:34 We popped to the fourth biggest news podcast in the world last week solely because…
1:02:36 You didn’t text me about that? I didn’t know that.
1:02:42 Probably because the president is pissed off at you and name checked you. So I need you to continue to
1:02:47 get under his skin because daddy wants to come back to Ibiza. He wants to come back to Ibiza. The
1:02:48 people are so young.
1:02:49 It’ll be my great pleasure.
1:02:56 And so hot here. And it is so expensive. It all reverse engineers to the president getting angry
1:02:58 at you. Can you do that for me?
1:02:59 I will do my best.
1:03:04 I’ll say it again. I can’t say it enough. I am so proud of you. I think that is so impressive.
1:03:08 You literally want to tell your grandkids. You want to be like, yeah,
1:03:13 remember that fascist back at the beginning of the 21st century that we literally vomited out?
1:03:18 Yeah, he he went after me publicly. I think that is going to be I think you’re going to have that
1:03:20 on your tombstone as a point of pride.
1:03:22 A long truth social for a tombstone.
1:03:26 All right, Jess, that’s all for this episode. Thank you for listening to Raging Moderates.
1:03:31 Our producers are David Toledo and Eric Jenakes. Our technical director is Drew Burrows.
1:03:35 Going forward, you’ll find Raging Moderates every Wednesday and Friday. That’s right.
1:03:40 Every Wednesday and Friday. Subscribe to Raging Moderates on its own feed to hear exclusive
1:03:45 interviews with sharp political minds. This week, Jess is speaking with Congressman Seth Moulton.
1:03:48 Make sure to follow us wherever you get your podcasts so you don’t miss an episode.
1:03:52 Jess, have a great rest of the week. It’s so good to see you.
1:03:52 Great to see you.