This week on Prof G Markets, we open with how the mutiny in Russia might impact the global markets. Scott then shares his thoughts on why the U.S. housing supply is so constrained, and what to do about it. He also discusses the package delivery market and what might happen if one of its largest players goes on strike. And finally, he takes a look at the run-up in Adobe’s stock after announcing its AI product, Firefly. Scott also discusses what the tragedy of the OceanGate submersible means for another extreme tourism company, Virgin Galactic, which is set to launch its first revenue-generating flight this week.
0:00:04 Support for PropG comes from BetterHelp. It’s really empowering to face your fears, 0:00:07 and now that we’re fully in the Halloween spirit, you can have a lot of chances to 0:00:10 seek out the things that make you jump. But what about the rest of the year? 0:00:14 Online therapy with BetterHelp may make it easier to confront the things that scare you, 0:00:18 not just Halloween, but throughout the year. It’s entirely online, designed to be convenient, 0:00:24 and suited to you and your schedule. Visit BetterHelp.com/PropG today to get 10% off your first 0:00:33 month. That’s BetterHelpHELP.com/PropG. Support for this show comes from Constant Contact. 0:00:38 If you struggle just to get your customers to notice you, Constant Contact has what you need 0:00:44 to grab their attention. Constant Contact’s award-winning marketing platform offers all the 0:00:50 automation, integration, and reporting tools that get your marketing running seamlessly, 0:00:56 all backed by their expert live customer support. It’s time to get going and growing with Constant 0:01:04 Contact today. Ready, set, grow. Go to ConstantContact.ca and start your free trial today. 0:01:10 Go to ConstantContact.ca for your free trial, ConstantContact.ca. 0:01:19 Do you feel like your leads never lead anywhere? And you’re making content that no one sees, 0:01:25 and it takes forever to build a campaign? Well, that’s why we build HubSpot. It’s an AI-powered 0:01:30 customer platform that builds campaigns for you, tells you which leads are worth knowing, 0:01:36 and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social abrees. So now, 0:01:41 it’s easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com/Marketers. 0:01:50 I’m in LA, and it’s been an emotional week on several dimensions. Many of my closest friends 0:01:56 are celebrating our 50th. It’s wonderful. Any competitiveness, jealousy, or other petty 0:02:04 bullshit has melted away. All that’s left is collective joy at our friendships and adult 0:02:10 children to boast about and cap our accomplishments. On the other end of the spectrum, my dad, 0:02:18 who’s 94, is struggling and no longer recognizes me. I knew it was coming, but still wasn’t prepared. 0:02:25 All these emotions are colliding and reminding me that much or most of the joy or tragedy in 0:02:34 our lives is not in our control. This is difficult for humans to accept. So we create an origin story. 0:02:43 Origin story, as read by George Hahn. This post is originally from early 2023. 0:02:56 Every one of us has an origin story. We define ourselves by our background, 0:03:02 the narrative of what made us who we are. However, people often don’t let the truth 0:03:08 get in the way of a good story, and the narrative of I is often that, a story. 0:03:17 James Fry found no takers for his novel, so he repackaged it as a memoir, his story, 0:03:22 which became the number one bestseller a million little pieces. 0:03:28 Biographies and memoirs are America’s second favorite book genre. 0:03:33 Ronald Reagan tried to curry favor with Israeli leaders with a story about 0:03:40 how he helped liberate Nazi death camps in World War II. He didn’t, did his military service in 0:03:47 Hollywood. Fabricated military service is apparently so common that Congress passed a law against it. 0:03:53 People embellish their origin stories, as it’s the only thing others have to go on, 0:04:00 from potential employers and friends to potential mates. We are the product of our circumstances, 0:04:06 personally and professionally, and a good origin story confers meaning to our life and career. 0:04:13 We should recognize that and embrace it, but also be honest about it. 0:04:20 The most important factor in determining a person’s future is when and where they are born. 0:04:26 Each of us, born into any other situation, would experience a different outcome. 0:04:31 Just as the market trumps individual performance, so does circumstance. 0:04:37 I likely would not be an entrepreneur or an academic had I been born in South Sudan. 0:04:44 If I’d been born in 1920s Germany, I’d likely have been a Nazi who perished on a Russian field. 0:04:52 This isn’t just true across continents and centuries, it’s also evident at a micro level. 0:04:56 Being born one year earlier or later can make a big difference. 0:05:04 People who graduate into a recession earn less for 10 to 15 years than those who graduate 0:05:12 amid prosperity. Fate also changes block to block. One of the strongest signals of life 0:05:19 expectancy and much else is the zip code where you’re born. Within the same city, 0:05:27 life expectancy can vary by 30 years based on zip code. Meanwhile, an American female whose 0:05:33 parents rank in the bottom decile of earners has a 3 in 10 chance of having a teenage pregnancy. 0:05:41 For daughters in the top decile, it’s 3 in 100. This all confirms a basic point. 0:05:45 The cards you’re dealt matter. A lot. 0:05:54 Your income is the clearest indicator of how much money your kid will make when they’re 30. 0:05:59 Churn is increasingly a rare earth element in the U.S. 0:06:05 Per a Georgetown analysis, quote, “It’s better to be born rich than smart.” 0:06:13 The most talented, disadvantaged children have a lower chance of academic and early 0:06:20 career success than the least talented affluent children, unquote. However, 0:06:27 the people dealt the best cards can’t see their hands. The myth of the self-made man is 0:06:33 rife among U.S. citizens who’ve never faced a draft or registered a devaluation in their currency. 0:06:37 People who are remora fish on investments made by the U.S. government. 0:06:44 Tech has raised a cohort of people who simultaneously credit their character for their success 0:06:52 and blame a rigged market for their failures. The real cage match in tech is entitlement versus 0:06:59 empathy. The former is winning and that results in a staggering accumulation of power that’s 0:07:05 amoral, focused only on the aggregation of more power regardless of what happens to people with 0:07:11 less. Side note, I hope they beat the shit out of each other. Is that wrong? 0:07:20 Until 40, my story was that I was the son of a single immigrant mother who lived and died a 0:07:26 secretary. I overcame those humble beginnings to achieve significant success because, you know, 0:07:33 I’m awesome. After 40, my eyesight began to wane, but I could see clearer. 0:07:41 I was born a straight white male in 1960s California, which gave me state-sponsored access 0:07:49 to elite universities. UCLA had an acceptance rate of 76% when I applied. This year, it’s 0:08:00 less than 9%. Later, Berkeley admitted me to its MBA program with a GPA of, no joke, 2.27 from UCLA. 0:08:10 Total tuition for all seven years, $8,000. I came of professional age in an era of processing power 0:08:16 and the internet. I lived in San Francisco where in the decade of the 90s, more wealth was created 0:08:23 within a seven mile radius than in all of Europe since World War II. I was given a rocket ship 0:08:29 built by others. To be clear, I’m talented and navigated the ship well, but I wasn’t going to 0:08:37 soar without the sacrifice and talent of millions of others. The ship blew up several times, 0:08:44 but I survived and there were other vessels waiting. Luck doesn’t begin to describe my situation. 0:08:52 My freshman college roommate, Born Gay, took his own life at 33 when his HIV progressed to full 0:09:00 blown AIDS. Like others, I have faced hardship and absent father and tragedy lost my mom early. 0:09:07 But each of these losses has played a role in my good fortune. I make my living communicating and 0:09:13 much of this skill isn’t the result of my own hard work. My dad can captivate any room 0:09:16 and even though he wasn’t around much, I inherited some of his ability. 0:09:24 My mom’s sickness and our inability to access good care was a hugely motivating defining moment 0:09:31 for me. I saw the rough cut of the American story and decided to get my shit together in hopes of 0:09:36 living a richer life and garnering the resources to take better care of the people who mattered to me. 0:09:44 Capitalism is brutal and motivating. Lately the balance has swung too far to the former, 0:09:51 but that’s another post. Supposedly each of us has bits of every material present at the dawn 0:09:58 of the universe. It makes sense, at least the morning after mushroom chocolates, that our 0:10:05 matter will also be present in galaxies, stars, planets, organisms birthed trillions of years 0:10:12 from now. Our stories may or may not make the journey, but the emotions they inspire will become 0:10:18 instinct, then DNA and this matter will disperse. So the question is, 0:10:26 distinct from the story you and others tell about yourself? How do you make people feel? 0:10:32 When people come in contact with you, do they feel insecure or inspired? 0:10:40 Do you leave people cold or comforted? Do you bring joy, harmony, love? 0:10:49 I’m in a deficit here. I’ve taken more than I’ve given. I have a debt to pay. I’ve started with my 0:10:56 boys and I’m working outward from there. Still time. It’s a comforting thought that bits of us 0:11:03 will live on and arrive at distant places trillions of years from now. We all have our longest journey 0:11:09 still ahead of us. When you get there, when you show up, what will be felt? 0:11:14 Distinct from your origin story, what was your real journey? 0:11:22 There’s only one real journey that matters. Who did you love and who loved you? 0:11:32 Life is so rich. 0:11:35 you
Kai Ryssdal, the host and senior editor of Marketplace, joins Scott to discuss the state of the economy and his take on the media. We also learn how Kai approaches fatherhood and his thoughts on being a good partner. Follow Kai on Twitter, @kairyssdal.
Scott opens by discussing masculinity, his time at Cannes, and the fact that the number of billionaires in the world has increased five-fold over the past two decades.
Algebra of Happiness: are you a friend or a benefactor?
Scott gives his thoughts on why mixed reality headsets are not going to be the next big thing for tech consumers. He then takes a question from a listener who is moving to LA and offers his recommendations on how to enjoy the city. He wraps up with financial advice to an older parent and shares what he would tell his sons at 79 years old.
This week on Prof G Markets, Scott shares his thoughts on the latest decision from the Federal Reserve and how its rate hiking campaign has impacted his investing strategy. He then discusses why the UK Prime Minister is excited that Andreessen Horowitz is opening a London office. Finally, he explains how Bud Light should have handled its marketing controversy, and how drinking preferences are changing the beer market.
Ian Bremmer, the president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, joins Scott to discuss why China has a spy base in Cuba, where the US struggles and excels on the global stage, and what to expect now that Ukraine’s counteroffensive has begun. Follow Ian on Twitter, @ianbremmer.
Scott opens by discussing how former President Trump exudes corruption and stupidity.
Scott gives his thoughts on using AI to pick stocks and make profitable investment decisions. He then advises a listener to conquer their public speaking fears, especially after a negative experience. He wraps up with his thoughts on navigating complex topics, like religion and spirituality, with your kids.
This week on Prof G Markets, Scott shares his thoughts on what product Apple should be focused on to create more shareholder value, rather than its Vision Pro headset. He also explains the real reason why Sequoia Capital is spinning off its China and India units. And finally, he discusses the PGA Tour’s decision to merge with Saudi Arabia’s LIV Golf.