Dan Pfeiffer on Joe Biden, beating Trump, and saving democracy
Before becoming the co-host of Pod Save America, Dan Pfeiffer spent most of his adult life in Democratic Party politics, which included serving as White House communications director for President Barack Obama. But in his new book Un-Trumping America, the former operative levels some sharp criticism toward the party he came of political age in.
Contrary to the rhetoric of the leading Democratic presidential candidate, Pfeiffer doesn’t think of Donald Trump as the source of our current social and political ills, and he doesn’t believe that beating Trump will bring about a return to “normalcy.” For Pfeiffer, Trump is a symptom of much deeper forces in our politics — forces that will continue to proliferate unless Democrats get serious about, among other things, genuine structural reform. Among the things we discuss:
– Pfeiffer’s view that Donald Trump is the favorite in 2020
– Why the core divide in the Democratic Party isn’t progressive vs. moderate
– The flaws in both Sanders and Biden’s theories of institutional change
– The way Obama looms over the Democratic primary — perhaps even more than Trump does
– The case for, and against, filibuster reform
– Pfeiffer’s biggest regret from inside the Obama administration
– What working with Joe Biden is like
– Why the Obama White House didn’t rally around Biden in 2016
– The damage the political consultant class does to Democrats
– What the left got wrong about the Democratic Party
– Why Democrats need to prioritize democracy itself
Why Rent Control Doesn’t Work (Ep. 373 Rebroadcast)
As cities become ever-more expensive, politicians and housing advocates keep calling for rent control. Economists think that’s a terrible idea. They say it helps a small (albeit noisy) group of renters, but keeps overall rents artificially high by disincentivizing new construction. So what happens next?
On this episode of Remarkable People, Guy Kawasaki interviews Sir Ken Robinson whose viral TED talk, Do Schools Kill Creativity, has been watched over 65 million times. An expert in creativity and innovation, Robinson shares why he thinks school is stifling children’s creativity in favor of math. His delightful stories mixed with gold nuggets of wisdom will truly entertain and inspire you.
See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Are you a “political hobbyist?” If so, you’re the problem.
Obsessively following the daily political news feels like an act of politics, or at least an act of civics. But what if, for many of us, it’s a replacement for politics — and one that’s actually hurting the country?
That is the argument made by Tufts University political scientist Eitan Hersh. In his incisive new book Politics is for Power,Hersh draws a sharp distinction between what he calls “political hobbyism” — following politics as a kind of entertainment and expression of self-identity — and the actual work of politics. His data shows that a lot of people who believe they are doing politics are passively following it, and the way they’re following it has played a key role in making the political system worse.
But this isn’t just a critique. Hersh’s argument builds to an alternative way of engaging in politics: as a form of service to our institutions and communities. And that alternative approach leads to some dramatically different ideas about how to marry an interest in politics with a commitment to building a better world. It also speaks to some of what we lost in rejecting the political machines and transactional politics of yesteryear — a personal obsession of mine, and a more important hinge point in American political history than I think we realize.
We are, as you may have noticed, deep into election season, and that’s when it’s easiest to mistake the drama of national politics for the doing of actual politics. So there’s no better time for this conversation.
#79 – Lee Smolin: Quantum Gravity and Einstein’s Unfinished Revolution
Lee Smolin is a theoretical physicist, co-inventor of loop quantum gravity, and a contributor of many interesting ideas to cosmology, quantum field theory, the foundations of quantum mechanics, theoretical biology, and the philosophy of science. He is the author of several books including one that critiques the state of physics and string theory called The Trouble with Physics, and his latest book, Einstein’s Unfinished Revolution: The Search for What Lies Beyond the Quantum.
This conversation is part of the Artificial Intelligence podcast. If you would like to get more information about this podcast go to https://lexfridman.com/ai or connect with @lexfridman on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, Medium, or YouTube where you can watch the video versions of these conversations. If you enjoy the podcast, please rate it 5 stars on Apple Podcasts, follow on Spotify, or support it on Patreon.
This episode is presented by Cash App. Download it (App Store, Google Play), use code “LexPodcast”.
Here’s the outline of the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
OUTLINE:
00:00 – Introduction
03:03 – What is real?
05:03 – Scientific method and scientific progress
24:57 – Eric Weinstein and radical ideas in science
29:32 – Quantum mechanics and general relativity
47:24 – Sean Carroll and many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics
55:33 – Principles in science
57:24 – String theory
Sam (@thesamparr) and Shaan (@shaanvp) talk ideas, news, trends and businesses. Why aren’t you in our Facebook group yet? www.facebook.com/groups/ourfirstmillion. For detailed show notes: https://bit.ly/3aOxEBz. Topics for today: Sequoia Memo (5:00), Virality in startups and viruses (8:51), Lead Gen Businesses (14:39), Islamic Finance (30:06) & Rebranding actions & lifestyles (42:18).
Sam (@thesamparr) and Shaan (@shaanvp) talk ideas, news, trends and businesses. We’ve partnered with Rippling! The startup that gives you back your time from payroll to employee compliance, making it unbelievably easy to manage your company’s HR and IT – in one system. If you want to try it out, visit www.rippling.com. Also, we had a listener actually start building an idea mentioned in our last podcast with turning tithing digital. He’s documenting his journey and uploaded a video to share with you all in our private FB group — which you are free to join: www.facebook.com/groups/ourfirstmillion. Here’s Paul Graham’s awesome essay on Do Things That Don’t Scale: http://paulgraham.com/ds.html For detailed show-notes Topics for today: Greetings in the corona world & viral trigger content (0:14), Our run the world event is canceled (1:09), Henry has a mic now… but he’s leaving the pod (1:49), A listener is building the tithing app (3:47), Cursing in meetings (5:55), Curly girl hair (8:27), Workout app making $100m/year (12:45), Mixed race shampoo (14:13), Atrium closing down and what Justin said to Sam at Hustlecon (16:24), Paul Graham’s Do Things That Don’t Scale (22:45), Trader Joe’s founder passing away and it’s fantastic business (29:25), Hotel franchising (33:49), B2B Gifting (36:14), CEO’s discussed actually listen to the pod (42:30), Q&A: What’s your best SEO hack for a new website? (43:53), Q&A: How to make your podcast profitable? (46:47) and Best interview questions featuring Henry (49:02).
0:00:05 Hi everyone, welcome to the A6NZ podcast, I’m Sonal. 0:00:08 So one of the recurring themes we talk a lot about on this podcast is how software changes 0:00:11 organizations and vice versa. 0:00:16 More broadly, it’s really about how companies of all kinds innovate with the org structures 0:00:18 and tools that they have. 0:00:22 And today’s episode, a rerun of a very popular episode from a couple years ago, draws on 0:00:28 actual research and data from one of the largest large-scale studies of software and organizational 0:00:30 performance out there. 0:00:34 Joining me in this conversation are two of the authors of the book Accelerate, the Science 0:00:39 of Lean Software and DevOps by Nicole Forsgren, Jez Humble, and Jean Kim. 0:00:43 We have the first two authors, so Nicole, who did her PhD research trying to answer 0:00:48 the lucid, eternal questions around how to measure software performance in orgs, especially 0:00:52 given past debates, around does IT matter? 0:00:57 She was the co-founder and CEO of Dora, which put out the annual State of DevOps report. 0:01:02 Dora was acquired by Google Cloud a little over a year ago, and she will soon be joining 0:01:05 GitHub as VP of Research and Strategy. 0:01:10 And then we also have Jez Humble, who was CTO at Dora, is currently in developer relations 0:01:17 at Google Cloud and is also the co-author of the books The DevOps Handbook, Lean Enterprise, 0:01:18 and Continuous Delivery. 0:01:23 In the conversation that follows, Nicole and Jez share their findings about high-performing 0:01:27 companies, even those that may not think they’re tech companies, and answer my questions about 0:01:32 whether there’s an ideal org type for this kind of innovation, whether it’s the size 0:01:36 of the organization, the software architecture they use, their culture or people, and where 0:01:39 the role of software and IT lives within that. 0:01:44 But first, we begin by talking briefly about the history of DevOps and where that fits 0:01:48 in the broader landscape of related software movements. 0:01:50 So I started as a software engineer at IBM. 0:01:54 I did hardware and software performance, and then I took a bit of a detour into academia 0:01:59 because I wanted to understand how to really measure and look at performance that would 0:02:04 be generalizable to several teams in predictable ways and in predictive ways. 0:02:10 And so I was looking at and investigating how to develop and deliver software in ways 0:02:15 that were impactful to individuals, teams, and organizations. 0:02:20 And then I pivoted back into industry because I realized this movement had gained so much 0:02:26 momentum and so much traction, and industry was desperate to really understand what types 0:02:30 of things are really driving performance outcomes and excellence. 0:02:32 And what do you mean by this movement? 0:02:38 This movement that now we call DevOps, so the ability to leverage software to deliver 0:02:44 value to customers, to organizations, to stakeholders. 0:02:47 And I think from a historical point of view, the best way to think about DevOps, it’s 0:02:53 a bunch of people who had to solve this problem of how do we build large distributed systems 0:02:59 that were secure and scalable and be able to change them really rapidly and evolve them. 0:03:02 And no one had had that problem before, certainly at the scale of companies like Amazon and 0:03:03 Google. 0:03:07 And that really is where the DevOps movement came from, trying to solve that problem. 0:03:11 And you can make an analogy to what Agile was about since the kind of software crisis 0:03:17 of the 1960s and people trying to build these defense systems at large scale, the invention 0:03:24 of software engineering as a field, Margaret Hamilton, her work at MIT on the Apollo program. 0:03:28 What happened in the decades after that was everything became kind of encased in concrete 0:03:33 in these very complex processes, this is how you develop software. 0:03:36 And Agile was kind of a reaction to that, saying we can develop software much more 0:03:40 quickly with much smaller teams in a much more lightweight way. 0:03:43 So we didn’t call it DevOps back then, but it’s also more Agile. 0:03:45 Can you guys break down the taxonomy for a moment? 0:03:48 Because when I think of DevOps, I think of it in the context of the containerization 0:03:51 of code and virtualization. 0:03:56 I think of it in the context of microservices and being able to do modular teams around 0:03:57 different things. 0:03:59 There’s an organizational element, there’s a software element, there’s an infrastructure 0:04:03 component, like paint the big picture for me of those building blocks and how they all 0:04:04 kind of fit together. 0:04:07 Well, I can give you a very personal story, which was my first show after college was 0:04:12 in 2000 in London, working at a startup where I was one of two technical people in the startup. 0:04:17 And I would deploy to production by FTP and code from my laptop directly into production. 0:04:21 And if I wanted to roll back, I’d say, “Hey, Johnny, can you FTP your copy of this file 0:04:22 to production?” 0:04:23 And that was our rollback process. 0:04:27 And then I went to work in consultancy where we were on these huge teams and deploying 0:04:30 to production, there was a whole team with a Gantt chart which put together the plan 0:04:31 to deploy to production. 0:04:32 And I’m like, this is crazy. 0:04:36 Unfortunately, I was working with a bunch of other people who also thought it was crazy. 0:04:40 And then we came up with these ideas around deployment automation and scripting and stuff 0:04:41 like that. 0:04:44 And suddenly we saw the same ideas had popped up everywhere, basically. 0:04:48 I mean, it’s realising that if you’re working in a large complex organisation, Agile’s going 0:04:54 to hit a brick wall because unlike the things we were building in the ’60s, product development 0:04:56 means that things are changing and evolving all the time. 0:04:58 So it’s not good enough to get to production the first time. 0:05:00 You’ve got to be able to keep getting there on and on. 0:05:01 And that really is where DevOps comes in. 0:05:05 It’s like, well, Agile, we’ve got a way to build and evolve products, but how do we keep 0:05:10 deploying to production and running the systems in production in a stable, reliable way, particularly 0:05:12 in the distributed context? 0:05:16 So if I phrase it another way, sometimes there’s a joke that says day one is short and day 0:05:17 two is long. 0:05:18 What does that mean? 0:05:19 Right. 0:05:20 So day one is when we create all these– 0:05:21 That’s by the way sad that you have to explain the joke to me. 0:05:22 No, it’s– 0:05:26 No, which is great, though, because so day one is when we create all of these systems. 0:05:28 And day two is when we deploy to production. 0:05:33 We have to deploy and maintain forever and ever and ever and ever. 0:05:35 So day two is an infinite day. 0:05:36 Right, exactly. 0:05:37 Yeah. 0:05:38 First successful product. 0:05:39 Hopefully. 0:05:41 We hope that day two is really, really long. 0:05:45 And we’re fond of saying Agile doesn’t scale. 0:05:48 And sometimes I’ll say this, and people shoot laser beams out of their eyes. 0:05:50 But when we think about it, Agile was meant for development. 0:05:53 Just like Jez said, it speeds up development. 0:05:58 But then you have to hand it over and especially infrastructure and IT operations. 0:05:59 What happens when we get there? 0:06:02 So DevOps was sort of born out of this movement. 0:06:06 And it was originally called Agile System Administration. 0:06:10 And so then DevOps sort of came out of development and operations. 0:06:14 And it’s not just DevOps, but if we think about it, that’s sort of the bookends of 0:06:15 this entire process. 0:06:17 Well, it’s actually like day one and day two combined into one phrase. 0:06:19 Day one and day two. 0:06:23 The way I think about this is I remember the stories of Microsoft in the early days and 0:06:29 the waterfall cascading model of development, Leslie Lamport once wrote a piece for me about 0:06:33 why software should be developed like houses because you need a blueprint. 0:06:37 And I’m not a software developer, but it felt like a very kind of old way of looking at 0:06:38 the world of code. 0:06:40 I hate that metaphor. 0:06:41 Tell me why. 0:06:44 If the thing you’re building has well understood characteristics, it makes sense. 0:06:47 So if you’re building a trust bridge, for example, there’s well-known understood models 0:06:51 of building trust bridges, you plug the parameters into the model and then you get a trust bridge 0:06:52 and it stays up. 0:06:55 Have you been to Sagrada Familia in Barcelona? 0:06:56 Oh, I love Gaudi. 0:06:57 Okay. 0:07:00 So if you go into the crypt of the Sagrada Familia, you’ll see his workshop and there’s 0:07:05 a picture, in fact, a model that he built of the Sagrada Familia, but upside down with 0:07:07 the weight simulating the stresses. 0:07:10 And so he would build all these prototypes and small prototypes because he was fundamentally 0:07:12 designing a new way of building. 0:07:17 All Gaudi’s designs were hyperbolic curves and parabolic curves and no one had used that 0:07:18 before. 0:07:19 Things that had never been pressure tested. 0:07:20 Right. 0:07:21 Literally. 0:07:22 In that case. 0:07:23 Exactly. 0:07:24 He didn’t want them to fall down. 0:07:25 So he built all these prototypes and did all this stuff. 0:07:29 He built his blueprint as he went by building and trying it out, which is a very rapid prototyping 0:07:30 kind of model. 0:07:31 Absolutely. 0:07:34 So in the situation where the thing you’re building has known characteristics and it’s 0:07:38 been done before, yeah, sure, we can take a very phased approach to it. 0:07:42 And, you know, for designing these kind of protocols that have to work in a distributed 0:07:46 context and you can actually do formal proofs of them, again, that makes sense. 0:07:51 But when we’re building products and services where particularly we don’t know what customers 0:07:55 actually want and what users actually want, it doesn’t make sense to do that because you’ll 0:07:57 build something that no one wants. 0:07:58 You can’t predict. 0:08:00 And we’re particularly bad at that, by the way. 0:08:05 Even companies like Microsoft, where they are very good at understanding what their 0:08:09 customer base looks like, they have a very mature product line. 0:08:15 Ronnie Cahave has done studies there and only about one-third of the well-designed features 0:08:16 deliver value. 0:08:18 That’s actually a really important point. 0:08:22 The mere question of does this work is something that people really clearly don’t pause to 0:08:26 ask, but I do have a question for you guys to push back, which is, is this a little bit 0:08:27 of the cult? 0:08:31 Oh, my God, it’s like so developer-centric, let’s be agile, let’s do it fast, our way, 0:08:35 you know, two pizzas, that’s the ideal size of a software team and, you know, I’m not 0:08:36 trying to mock it. 0:08:41 I’m just saying that isn’t there an element of actual practical realities like technical 0:08:46 debt and accruing a mess underneath all your code and a system that you may be there for 0:08:49 two or three years and you can go after the next startup, but okay, someone else has to 0:08:51 clean up your mess. 0:08:53 Tell me about how this fits into that big picture. 0:08:55 This is what enables all of that. 0:08:56 Oh, right. 0:08:57 Interesting. 0:08:59 So it’s not actually just creating a problem because that’s how I’m kind of hearing it. 0:09:00 No, absolutely. 0:09:05 So you still need development, you still need test, you still need QA, you still need operations, 0:09:08 you still need to deal with technical debt, you still need to deal with re-architecting 0:09:12 really difficult large monolithic code bases. 0:09:17 What this enables you to do is to find the problems, address them quickly, move forward. 0:09:22 I think that the problem that a lot of people have is that we’re so used to couching these 0:09:26 things as trade-offs and as dichotomies, the idea that if you’re going to move fast, you’re 0:09:27 going to break things. 0:09:32 The one thing which I always say is, if you take one thing away from DevOps is this, high-performing 0:09:34 companies don’t make those trade-offs. 0:09:36 They’re not going fast and breaking things. 0:09:40 They’re going fast and making more stable, more high-quality systems, and this is one 0:09:44 of the key results in the book, in our research, is this fact that high-performers do better 0:09:49 at everything because the capabilities that enable high-performance in one field, if done 0:09:51 right, enable it in other fields. 0:09:55 If you’re using version control for software, you should also be using version control for 0:09:56 your production infrastructure. 0:10:00 If there’s a problem in production, we can reproduce the state of the production environment 0:10:05 in a disaster recovery scenario, again in a predictable way that’s repeatable. 0:10:07 I think it’s important to point out that this is something that happened in manufacturing 0:10:08 as well. 0:10:09 Give it to me. 0:10:13 I love when people talk about software as drawn from hardware analogies as my favorite 0:10:14 type of metaphor. 0:10:20 Okay, so Toyota didn’t win by making shitty cars faster, they won by making higher-quality 0:10:22 cars faster and having shorter time to market. 0:10:25 The lean manufacturing method, which by the way also spawned lean startup thinking and 0:10:26 everything else connected to it. 0:10:30 And DevOps pulls very strongly from lean methodologies. 0:10:34 So you guys are probably the only people to have actually done a large-scale study of 0:10:36 organizations adopting DevOps. 0:10:38 What is your research and what did you find? 0:10:39 Sure. 0:10:44 My research really is the largest investigation of DevOps practices around the world. 0:10:48 We have over 23,000 data points, all industries. 0:10:49 Give me like a sampling, like what are the range of industries? 0:10:56 So I’ve got entertainment, I’ve got finance, I have healthcare and pharma, I have technology. 0:10:57 Government. 0:10:58 Government, education. 0:11:00 You basically have every vertical. 0:11:01 And then when you tell you around the world. 0:11:07 So we’re primarily in North America, we’re in Amia, we have India, we have a small sample 0:11:08 in Africa. 0:11:09 Right. 0:11:13 And we break down like the survey methodology questions that people have in the ethnographic 0:11:17 world, the way we would approach it is that you can never trust what people say they do. 0:11:19 You have to watch what they do. 0:11:23 However, it is absolutely true, and especially in a more scalable sense, that there are really 0:11:25 smart surveys that give you a shit ton of useful data. 0:11:26 Yes. 0:11:30 And part two of the book covers this in almost excruciating detail. 0:11:31 We like knowing methodologies. 0:11:32 Yes. 0:11:33 So it’s nice to share that. 0:11:37 Well, and it’s interesting because Jez talked about in his overview of Agile and how it changes 0:11:41 so quickly and we don’t have a really good definition, but that does is it makes it difficult 0:11:42 to measure. 0:11:43 Right. 0:11:49 And so what we do is we’ve defined core constructs, core capabilities, so that we can then measure 0:11:50 them. 0:11:57 We go back to core ideas around things like automation, process, measurement, lean principles. 0:12:02 And then I’ll get that pilot set of data and I’ll run preliminary statistics to test for 0:12:06 discriminant validity, convergent validity, composite reliability. 0:12:09 Make sure that it’s not testing what it’s not supposed to test. 0:12:12 It is testing what it is supposed to test. 0:12:15 Everyone is reading it consistently the same way that I think it’s testing. 0:12:20 I even run checks to make sure that I’m not inadvertently inserting bias or collecting 0:12:23 bias just because I’m getting all of my data from surveys. 0:12:25 Sounds pretty damn robust. 0:12:28 So tell me then what were the big findings? 0:12:30 That’s a huge question, but give me the hit list. 0:12:31 Well, okay. 0:12:35 So let’s start with one thing that Jess already talked about, speed and stability go together. 0:12:39 This is where he was talking about there not being necessarily a false dichotomy and that’s 0:12:41 one of your findings that you can actually accomplish both. 0:12:42 Yeah. 0:12:43 And it’s worth talking about how we measure those things as well. 0:12:48 So we measure speed or tempo as we call it in the book or sometimes people call it throughput 0:12:49 as well. 0:12:53 Which is a nice full circle manufacturing idea, like the semiconductor circuit throughput. 0:12:54 Yeah, absolutely. 0:12:56 I love hardware analogies for software, I told you. 0:12:57 A lot of it comes from lean. 0:13:01 So lead time, obviously one of the classic lean manufacturing measures we use. 0:13:02 How long does it take? 0:13:06 You look at the lead time from checking into version control to release into production. 0:13:09 So that part of the value stream because that’s more focused on the DevOps end of things. 0:13:11 And it’s highly predictable. 0:13:12 The other one is release frequency. 0:13:13 So how often do you do it? 0:13:17 And then we’ve got two stability metrics and one of them is time to restore. 0:13:21 So in the event that you have some kind of outage or some degradation in performance in 0:13:24 production, how long does it take you to restore service? 0:13:27 For a long time we focused on not letting things break. 0:13:30 And I think one of the changes, paradigm shifts we’ve seen in the industry, particularly 0:13:32 in DevOps, is moving away from that. 0:13:36 We accept that failure is inevitable because we’re building complex systems. 0:13:40 So not how do we prevent failure, but when failure inevitably occurs, how quickly can 0:13:41 we detect and fix it? 0:13:42 MTBF, right? 0:13:43 Mean time between failures. 0:13:48 If you only go down once a year, but you’re down for three days and it’s on Black Friday. 0:13:52 But if you’re down very small, low blast, very, very small blast radius and you can come 0:13:57 back almost immediately and your customers almost don’t notice. 0:13:58 That’s fine. 0:14:00 The other piece around stability is change fail, right? 0:14:03 When you push a change into production, what percentage of the time do you have to fix 0:14:04 it? 0:14:05 Because something went wrong. 0:14:07 By the way, what does that tell you if you have a change fail? 0:14:10 So in the lean kind of discipline, this is called percent complete and accurate. 0:14:12 And it’s a measure of a quality of your process. 0:14:17 So in a high quality process, when I do something for Nicole, Nicole can use it rather than 0:14:21 sending it back to me and say, “Hey, there’s a problem with this.” 0:14:24 And in this particular case, what percentage of the time when I deploy something to production 0:14:27 is there a problem because I didn’t test it adequately. 0:14:29 My testing environment wasn’t production like enough. 0:14:31 Those are the measures for finding this. 0:14:36 But the big finding is that you can have speed and stability together through DevOps. 0:14:38 Is that what I’m hearing? 0:14:39 Yes, yes. 0:14:40 High performers get it all. 0:14:42 Low performers kind of suck at all of it. 0:14:43 Medium performers hang out in the middle. 0:14:46 I’m not seeing trade-offs four years in a row. 0:14:50 So anyone who’s thinking, “Oh, I can be more stable if I slow down,” I don’t see it. 0:14:54 It actually breaks a very commonly held kind of urban legend around how people believe 0:14:55 these things operate. 0:14:58 So tell me, are there any other sort of findings like that? 0:14:59 Because that’s very counterintuitive. 0:15:01 Okay, so this one’s kind of fun. 0:15:07 One is that this ability to develop and deliver software with speed and stability drives organizational 0:15:08 performance. 0:15:09 Now, here’s the thing. 0:15:11 I was about to say, that’s a very obvious thing to say. 0:15:13 So it seems obvious, right? 0:15:17 Developing and delivering software with speed and stability drives things like profitability, 0:15:19 productivity, market share. 0:15:26 Okay, except if we go back to Harvard Business Review 2003, there’s a paper titled, “IT Doesn’t 0:15:27 Matter.” 0:15:32 We have decades of research, I want to say at least 30 or 40 years of research showing 0:15:37 the technology does not drive organizational performance. 0:15:38 It doesn’t drive ROI. 0:15:43 And we are now starting to find other studies and other research that backs this up. 0:15:48 Eric Brinniol sent out of MIT, James Best sent out of Boston University, 2017. 0:15:50 Did you say James Bessen? 0:15:51 Yeah. 0:15:52 Oh, I used to edit him, too. 0:15:54 Yeah, it’s fantastic. 0:15:56 Here’s why it’s different. 0:16:01 Because before, right in like the 80s and the 90s, we did this thing where like, you’d 0:16:03 buy the tech and you’d plug it in and you’d walk away. 0:16:07 It was on-prem sales model where you like deliver and leave as opposed to like software 0:16:09 as a service and the other ways that things happen. 0:16:11 And people would complain if you tried to upgrade it too often. 0:16:12 Oh, right. 0:16:17 The key is that everyone else can also buy the thing and plug it in and walk away. 0:16:22 How is that driving value or differentiation for a company? 0:16:27 If I just buy a laptop to help me do something faster, everyone else can buy a laptop to do 0:16:29 the same thing faster. 0:16:34 That doesn’t help me deliver value to my customers or to the market. 0:16:36 It’s a point of parity, not a point of distinction. 0:16:37 Right. 0:16:40 And you’re saying that point of distinction comes from how you tie together that technology 0:16:43 process and culture through DevOps. 0:16:44 Right. 0:16:46 And that it can provide a competitive advantage to your business. 0:16:50 If you’re buying something that everyone else also has access to, then it’s no longer a 0:16:51 differentiator. 0:16:54 But if you have an in-house capability and those people are finding ways to drive your 0:16:57 business, I mean, this is the classic Amazon model. 0:17:01 They’re running hundreds of experiments in production at any one time to improve the 0:17:02 product. 0:17:05 And that’s not something that anyone else can copy, that’s why Amazon keeps winning. 0:17:08 So what people are doing is copying the capability instead. 0:17:09 And that’s what we’re talking about. 0:17:10 How do you build that capability? 0:17:14 The most fascinating thing to me about all this is honestly not the technology per se, 0:17:17 but the organizational change part of it and the organizations themselves. 0:17:22 So of all the people you studied, is there an ideal organizational makeup that is ideal 0:17:23 for DevOps? 0:17:27 Or is it one of these magical formulas that has this ability to turn a big company into 0:17:31 a startup and a small company into, because that’s actually the real question. 0:17:34 From what I’ve seen, there might be two ideals. 0:17:39 The nice, happy answer is the ideal organization is the one that wants to change. 0:17:44 That’s, I mean, given this huge n equals 23,000 dataset, is it not tied to a particular profile 0:17:45 of a size of company? 0:17:47 They’re both shaking their head just for the listeners. 0:17:51 I see high performers among large companies. 0:17:52 I see high performers in small companies. 0:17:55 I see low performers in small companies. 0:17:57 I see low performers in highly regulated companies. 0:18:00 I see low performers in not regulated companies. 0:18:03 So tell me the answer you’re not supposed to say. 0:18:11 So that answer is it tends to be companies that are like, oh shit, and they’re two profiles. 0:18:16 Number one, they’re like way behind, and oh shit, and they have some kind of funds. 0:18:25 Or they are like this lovely, wonderful bastion of like they’re these really innovative, high-performing 0:18:29 companies, but they still realize they’re a handful of like two or three companies ahead 0:18:31 of them, and they don’t want to be number two. 0:18:32 They are going to be number one. 0:18:33 So those are sort of the ideal. 0:18:35 I mean, just like anthropomorphize it a little bit. 0:18:41 It’s like the 35 to 40 year old who suddenly discovers you might be pre-diabetic, so you 0:18:43 better do something about it now before it’s too late. 0:18:47 But it’s not too late because you’re not so old where you’re about to reach sort of 0:18:50 the end of a possibility to change that runway. 0:18:54 And then there’s this person who’s sort of kind of already like in the game running in 0:18:57 the race and they might be two or three, but they want to be like number one. 0:19:02 And I think to extend your metaphor, the companies that do well are the companies that never got 0:19:05 diabetic in the first place because they always just ate healthily. 0:19:07 They were already glucose monitoring. 0:19:10 They had continuous glucose monitors on, which is like DevOps actually. 0:19:11 They were always athletes. 0:19:12 Right. 0:19:15 You know, diets are terrible because at some point you have to stop the diet. 0:19:18 And it has to start and start and stop as opposed to a way of life is what you’re saying. 0:19:19 Right, exactly. 0:19:24 So if you just always eat healthily and never eat too much or very rarely eat too much and 0:19:27 do a bit of exercise every day, you never get to the stage like, oh my God, now I can 0:19:29 only eat tofu. 0:19:39 So like my loving professerness, nurture Nicole also has one more profile that like I love 0:19:42 and I worry about them like mother hen. 0:19:47 And it’s the companies that I talk to and they come to me and they’re struggling and 0:19:52 I haven’t decided if they want to change, but they’re like, so we need to do this transformation 0:19:53 and we’re going to do the transformation. 0:19:57 And it’s either because they want to or when they’ve been told that they need to. 0:20:01 And then they will insert this thing where they say, but I’m not a technology company. 0:20:08 I’m like, but we just had this 20 minute conversation about how you’re leveraging technology to drive 0:20:13 value to customers or to drive this massive process that you do. 0:20:15 And then they say, but I’m not a technology company. 0:20:19 I could almost see why they had that in their head because they were a natural resources 0:20:20 company. 0:20:23 But there was another one where they were a finance company. 0:20:27 I mean, an extension of software eats the world is really every company is a technology 0:20:28 company. 0:20:32 It’s fascinating to me that that third type exists, but it is a sign of this legacy world 0:20:38 moving into and I worry about them also, at least for me personally, you know, I lived 0:20:42 through this like mass extinction of several firms and I don’t want it to happen again. 0:20:46 And I worry about so many companies that keep insisting they’re not technology companies. 0:20:49 And I’m like, oh, honey child, you’re a tech company. 0:20:51 You know, one of the gaps in our data is actually China. 0:20:55 And I think big China is a really interesting example because they didn’t go through the 0:20:58 whole, you know, IT doesn’t matter phase. 0:21:02 They’re jumping straight from no technology to Alibaba and Tencent, right? 0:21:07 I think US companies should be scared because the moment Tencent and Alibaba already made 0:21:12 moving into other developing markets and they’re going to be incredibly competitive because 0:21:13 it’s just built into their DNA. 0:21:16 So the other fascinating thing to me is that you essentially were able to measure performance 0:21:20 of software and clearly productivity. 0:21:22 Is there any more insights on the productivity side? 0:21:23 Yes. 0:21:24 Yes. 0:21:25 I want to go. 0:21:26 This is his favorite ramp. 0:21:27 Jumping around and like waving his hand. 0:21:31 So tell us the reason the manufacturing metaphor breaks down is because in manufacturing you 0:21:32 have inventory. 0:21:33 Yes. 0:21:36 We do not have inventory in the same way in software. 0:21:39 In a factory, like the first thing your lean consultant is going to do, walking into the 0:21:42 factory is point to the piles of thing everywhere. 0:21:47 But I think if you walk into an office where there’s developers, where’s the inventory? 0:21:50 By the way, that’s what makes talking about this to executives so difficult. 0:21:51 They can’t see the process. 0:21:56 Well, it’s a hard question to answer because is the inventory the code that’s being written? 0:22:00 And people actually have done that and said, “Well, listen, lines of code are an accounting 0:22:04 measure and we’re going to capture that as, you know, capital.” 0:22:05 That’s insane. 0:22:08 It’s like an invitation to write crappy, unnecessarily long code. 0:22:09 That’s exactly what happens. 0:22:11 It’s like the olden days are getting paid for a book by how long it is and it’s like 0:22:14 actually really boring when you can actually write it in like one third of the length. 0:22:15 Let’s write it in German. 0:22:16 Right, you know. 0:22:17 I’m thinking of Charles Dickens. 0:22:19 In general, you know, you prefer people to write short programs because they’re easier 0:22:21 to maintain and so forth. 0:22:23 But lines of code have all these drawbacks. 0:22:25 We can’t use them as a measure of productivity. 0:22:27 So if you can’t measure lines of code, what can you measure? 0:22:30 Because I really want an answer like, how do you measure productivity? 0:22:31 So velocity is the other classic example. 0:22:38 Agile, there’s this concept of velocity, which is the number of story points a team manages 0:22:41 to complete in an iteration. 0:22:47 So before the start of an iteration in many agile, particularly scrum-based processes, 0:22:48 you’ve got all this work to do. 0:22:50 You’re like, “We need to build these five features. 0:22:51 How long will this feature take?” 0:22:54 And the developers fight over it and they’re like, “Oh, it’s five points.” 0:22:57 And then this one’s going to take three points, this one’s going to take two points. 0:23:00 And so you have a list of all these features and you don’t get through all of them. 0:23:03 At the end of the iteration, the customer signs off, “Well, I’m accepting this one. 0:23:04 This one’s fine. 0:23:05 This one’s fine. 0:23:06 This one’s a hot mess. 0:23:07 Go back and do it again.” 0:23:08 Whatever. 0:23:09 The number of points you complete in the iteration is the velocity. 0:23:12 So it’s like the speed at which you’re able to deliver those features. 0:23:16 So a lot of people treat it like that, but actually, that’s not really what it’s about. 0:23:20 It’s a relative measure of effort and it’s for capacity planning purposes. 0:23:23 So basically, for the next iteration, we’ll only commit to completing the same velocity 0:23:24 that we finished last time. 0:23:27 So it’s relative and it’s team dependent. 0:23:30 And so what a lot of people do is say they start comparing velocities across teams. 0:23:34 Then what happens is, a lot of work, you need to collaborate between teams. 0:23:38 But hey, if I’m going to help you with your story, that means I’m not going to get my 0:23:42 story points and you’re going to get your story points, right, people can game it as 0:23:43 well. 0:23:45 You should never use story points as a productivity measure. 0:23:48 So lines of code doesn’t work, velocity doesn’t work, what works? 0:23:53 So this is why we like, two things in particular, one thing that it’s a global measure. 0:23:57 And secondly, that it’s not just one thing, it mixes two things together, which might 0:23:59 normally be intention. 0:24:03 And so this is why we went for our measure of performance. 0:24:11 So measuring lead time, release frequency, and then time to restore and change fail rate. 0:24:15 Lead time is really interesting because lead time is on the way to production, right? 0:24:17 So all the teams have to collaborate. 0:24:21 It’s not something where I can go really fast in my velocity, but nothing ever gets delivered 0:24:22 to the customer. 0:24:23 It doesn’t count in lead time. 0:24:24 So it’s a global measure. 0:24:27 It takes care of that problem of the incentive alignment around the competitive dynamic. 0:24:30 Also, it’s an outcome. 0:24:31 It’s not an output. 0:24:33 There’s a guy called Jeff Patton. 0:24:36 He’s a really smart thinker in the kind of lead and agile space. 0:24:43 He says, minimize output, maximize outcomes, which I think is simple but brilliant. 0:24:45 It’s so simple because it just shifts the words to impact. 0:24:49 And even we don’t get all the way there because we’re not yet measuring, did the features 0:24:51 deliver the expected value to the organization or the customers? 0:24:58 Well, we do get there because we focus on speed and stability, which then deliver the 0:25:02 outcome to the organization, profitability, productivity, market share. 0:25:07 But the second half of this, which I am also hearing is, did it meet your expectations? 0:25:11 Did it perform to the level that you wanted it to? 0:25:13 Did it match what you asked for? 0:25:18 Or even if it wasn’t something you specified that you desired or needed, that seems like 0:25:19 a slightly open question. 0:25:20 So we did actually measure that. 0:25:24 We looked at non-profit organizations and these were exactly the questions we measured. 0:25:29 We asked people, did the software meet, I can’t remember what the exact questions were. 0:25:33 Effectiveness, efficiency, customer satisfaction, delivery, mission goals. 0:25:35 How fascinating that you do it non-profits because that is a larger move in the non-profit 0:25:38 measurement space to try to measure impact. 0:25:43 But we captured it everywhere because even profit seeking firms still have these goals. 0:25:47 In fact, as we know from research, companies that don’t have a mission other than making 0:25:49 money do less well than the ones that do. 0:25:54 I think, again, what the data shows is that companies that do well on the performance measures 0:25:58 we talked about outperform their low performing peers by a factor of two. 0:26:02 A hypothesis is what we’re doing when we create these high performing organizations in terms 0:26:06 of speed and stability is we’re creating feedback loops. 0:26:11 What it allows us to do is build a thin slice, a prototype of a feature, get feedback through 0:26:16 some UX mechanism, whether that’s showing people the prototype and getting their feedback, 0:26:19 whether it’s running A/B tests or multivariate tests in production. 0:26:23 It’s what creates these feedback loops that allow you to shift direction very fast. 0:26:25 I mean, that is the heart of Lean Startup. 0:26:29 It’s the heart of anything you’re putting out into the world is you have to kind of 0:26:30 bring it full circle. 0:26:33 It is a secret of success to Amazon, as you cited earlier. 0:26:35 I would distill it to just that. 0:26:37 I think I heard Jeff Bezos say the best line. 0:26:40 It was at the Internet Association dinner in DC last year where he came and asked me 0:26:41 about an innovation. 0:26:44 He’s like, to him, an innovation is something that people actually use. 0:26:47 And that’s what I love about the feedback loop thing, is it actually reinforces that 0:26:49 mindset of that’s what innovation is. 0:26:50 Right. 0:26:54 So to sum up, the way you can frame this is DevOps is that technological capability 0:26:59 that underpins your ability to practice Lean Startup and all these very rapid iterative 0:27:00 processes. 0:27:02 So I have a couple of questions then. 0:27:07 So one is going back to this original taxonomy question, and you guys described that there 0:27:09 isn’t necessarily an ideal organizational type. 0:27:11 Which by the way, should be encouraging. 0:27:12 I agree. 0:27:17 It’s super encouraging and more importantly democratizing that anybody can become a hit 0:27:18 player. 0:27:19 We were doing this in the federal government. 0:27:20 I love that. 0:27:24 But one of my questions is, when we had Adrian Cockroft on this podcast a couple of years 0:27:27 ago talking about microservices, and the thing that I thought was so liberating about what 0:27:34 he was describing the Netflix story was that it was a way for teams to essentially become 0:27:40 little mini product management units and essentially self-organize because the infrastructure 0:27:48 by being broken down into these micro pieces versus say a monolithic kind of uniform architecture, 0:27:53 I would think that being a organization that’s containerized its code in that way that has 0:27:58 this microservices architecture would be more suited to DevOps. 0:28:00 Or is that a wrong belief? 0:28:04 I’m just trying to understand again that taxonomy thing of how these pieces all fit together. 0:28:07 So we actually studied this as a whole section of architecture in the book where we looked 0:28:09 at exactly this question. 0:28:12 Architecture has been studied for a long time and people talk about architectural characteristics. 0:28:16 There’s the ATAM, the architectural trade-off model that kind of email and developed. 0:28:21 There’s some additional things we have to care about, testability and deployability. 0:28:27 Can my team test its stuff without having to rely on this very complex integrated environment? 0:28:31 Can my team deploy its code to production without these very complex orchestrated deployments? 0:28:34 Basically, can we do things without dependencies? 0:28:38 That is one of the biggest predictors in our cohort of IT performance is the ability of 0:28:43 teams to get stuff done on their own without dependencies on other teams, whether that’s 0:28:46 testing or whether it’s deploying or whether it’s planning. 0:28:47 Even just communicating. 0:28:53 Can you get things done without having to do mass communication and checking in permissions? 0:28:57 Question I love, love, love asking on this podcast is we always revisit the 1937 Coast 0:29:02 paper about the theory of the firm and its idea that transaction costs are more efficient. 0:29:07 This is like the ultimate model for reducing friction and those transaction costs, communication, 0:29:08 coordination costs, all of it. 0:29:11 That’s what all the technical and process stuff is about that. 0:29:13 I mean, Don Robinson once came to one of my talks on continuous delivery. 0:29:18 At the end, he said, “So, continuous delivery, that’s just about reducing transaction costs, 0:29:19 right?” 0:29:20 And I’m like… 0:29:21 An economist view of DevOps. 0:29:22 I love it. 0:29:23 You’re right. 0:29:25 You’ve reduced my entire body of work to one sentence. 0:29:27 It’s so much Conway’s Law, right? 0:29:28 This would remind me what Conway’s Law is. 0:29:33 Organizations which design systems are constrained to produce designs which are copies of the 0:29:35 communication structures of these organizations. 0:29:36 Oh, right. 0:29:39 It’s that idea basically that your software code looks like the shape of the organization 0:29:40 itself. 0:29:41 Right. 0:29:42 And how we communicate, right? 0:29:46 So, which, you know, Jez just summarized, if you have to be communicating and coordinating 0:29:48 with all of these other different groups… 0:29:52 Command and control looks like waterfall, a more decentralized model looks like independent 0:29:53 teams. 0:29:54 Right. 0:29:55 So, the data shows that. 0:29:58 A lot of people jump on the microservices, containerization, bandwagon. 0:30:03 There’s one thing that is very important to bear in mind, implementing those technologies 0:30:05 does not give you those outcomes we talked about. 0:30:07 We actually looked at people doing mainframe stuff. 0:30:10 You can achieve these results with mainframes. 0:30:16 Equally, you can use the, you know, Kubernetes and, you know, Docker and microservices and 0:30:17 not achieve these outcomes. 0:30:22 We see no statistical correlation with performance, whether you’re on a mainframe or a greenfield 0:30:24 or a brownfield system. 0:30:28 If you’re building something brand new or if you’re working on existing build. 0:30:31 And one thing I wanted to bring up that we didn’t before is I said, you know, day one 0:30:32 is short, day two is long. 0:30:36 And I talked about things that live on the internet and live on the web. 0:30:40 This is still a really, really smart approach for package software. 0:30:47 And I know people who are working in and running package software companies that use this methodology 0:30:51 because it allows them to still work in small, fast approaches. 0:30:56 And all they do is they push to a small package pre-production database. 0:31:01 And then when it’s time to push that code onto some media, they do that. 0:31:02 Okay. 0:31:05 So what I love hearing about this is that it’s actually not necessarily tied again to the 0:31:07 architecture or the type of company you are. 0:31:11 There’s this opportunity for everybody, but there is this mindset of like an organization 0:31:12 that is ready. 0:31:14 It’s like a readiness level for a company. 0:31:15 Oh, I hear that all the time. 0:31:19 I don’t know if I’d say there’s any such thing as readiness, right? 0:31:21 Like there’s always an opportunity to get better. 0:31:24 There’s always an opportunity to transform. 0:31:29 The other thing that really drives me crazy and makes my head explode is this whole maturity 0:31:30 model thing. 0:31:31 Okay. 0:31:33 Are you ready to start transforming? 0:31:38 Well, like you can just not transform and then maybe fail, right? 0:31:42 Maturity models, they’re really popular in industry right now, but I really can’t stress 0:31:47 enough that they’re not really an appropriate way to think about a technology transformation. 0:31:50 I was thinking of readiness in the context of like NASA technology readiness levels or 0:31:54 TRLs, which is something we use to think about a lot for very early stage things, but you’re 0:31:58 describing maturity of an organization and it sounds like there’s some kind of a framework 0:32:02 for assessing the maturity of an organization and you’re saying that doesn’t work, but first 0:32:05 of all, what is that framework and why doesn’t it work? 0:32:10 Well, so so many people think that they want a snapshot of their like DevOps or their technology 0:32:14 transformation and spit back a number, right? 0:32:18 And then you will have one number to compare yourself against everything. 0:32:24 The challenge though is that a maturity model usually is leveraged to help you think about 0:32:27 arriving somewhere and then here’s the problem. 0:32:29 Once you’ve arrived, what happens? 0:32:30 Oh, we’re done. 0:32:31 You’re done. 0:32:33 And then the resources are gone. 0:32:38 And by resources, I don’t just mean money, I mean time, I mean attention. 0:32:44 We see year over year over year, the best, most innovative companies continue to push. 0:32:46 So what happens when you’ve arrived, I’m using my finger quotes. 0:32:47 You stop pushing. 0:32:48 You stop pushing. 0:32:54 What happens when executives or leaders or whomever decide that you no longer need resources 0:32:55 of any type? 0:33:00 I have to push back again though, doesn’t this help because it is helpful to give executives 0:33:04 in particular, particularly those that are not tech native, coming from the seeds of 0:33:09 the engineering organization, some kind of metric to put your head around where are we, 0:33:10 where are we at? 0:33:12 So you can use a capability model. 0:33:17 You can think about the capabilities that are necessary to drive your ability to develop 0:33:20 and deliver software with speed and stability. 0:33:24 Another limitation is that they’re often kind of a lockstep or a linear formula, right? 0:33:25 No, right. 0:33:28 It’s like a stepwise A, B, C, D, E, one, two, three, four. 0:33:32 And in fact, the very nature of anything iterative is it’s very nonlinear and circular. 0:33:33 Feedback loops are circled. 0:33:34 Right. 0:33:37 And maturity models just don’t allow that. 0:33:42 No, another thing that’s really, really nice is that capability models allow us to think 0:33:46 about capabilities in terms of these outcomes. 0:33:48 Capabilities drive impact. 0:33:53 Maturity models are just this thing where you have this level one, level two, level 0:33:54 three, level four. 0:33:55 It’s a bit performative. 0:34:02 And then finally, maturity models just sort of take this snapshot of the world and describe 0:34:03 it. 0:34:05 How fast is technology and business changing? 0:34:11 If we create a maturity model now, let’s wait, let’s say four years, that maturity model 0:34:14 is old and dead and dusty and gone. 0:34:16 Do new technologies change the way you think about this? 0:34:20 Because I’ve been thinking a lot about how product management for certain types of technologies 0:34:24 changes with the technology itself and that machine learning and deep learning might be 0:34:25 a different beast. 0:34:26 And I’m just wondering if you guys have any thoughts on that. 0:34:27 Yeah. 0:34:30 I mean, me and Dave Farley wrote the continuous delivery book back in 2010. 0:34:34 And since then, you know, there’s Docker and Kubernetes and large-scale adoption of the 0:34:37 cloud and all these things that you had no idea would happen. 0:34:40 People sometimes ask me, you know, isn’t it time you wrote a new edition of the book? 0:34:43 I mean, yeah, we would probably rewrite it. 0:34:45 Does it change any of the fundamental principles? 0:34:46 No. 0:34:50 Do these new tools allow you to achieve those principles in new ways? 0:34:51 Yes. 0:34:54 So, I think, you know, this is how I always come back to any problem is go back to first 0:34:55 principles. 0:34:56 Yeah. 0:34:59 And the first principles, I mean, they will change over the course of centuries. 0:35:04 I mean, we’ve got modern management versus kind of scientific management, but they don’t 0:35:06 change over the course of like a couple of years. 0:35:08 The principles are still the same. 0:35:11 These give you new ways to do them, and that’s what’s interesting about them. 0:35:13 Equally, things can go backwards. 0:35:17 A great example of this is one of the capabilities we talk about in the book is working off a 0:35:22 shared trunk or master inversion control, not going on these long-lived feature branches. 0:35:26 And the reason for that is actually because of feedback loops. 0:35:29 You know, developers love going off into a corner, putting headphones on their head and 0:35:34 just coding something for like days, and then they try and integrate it into trunk, you 0:35:35 know, and that’s a total nightmare. 0:35:38 And not just for them, more critically for everyone else who then has to merge their 0:35:41 coding so whatever they’re working on. 0:35:42 So that’s hugely painful. 0:35:45 Git is one of these examples of a tool that makes it very easy for people like, “Oh, I 0:35:46 can use feature branches.” 0:35:49 So I think, again, it’s non-linear in the way that you describe. 0:35:50 Right. 0:35:51 Gives you new ways to do things, are they good and bad? 0:35:52 It depends. 0:35:55 But the thing that strikes me about what you guys have been talking about as a theme in 0:35:59 this podcast that seems to lend itself, well, to the world of machine learning and deep 0:36:03 learning where that technology might be different, is it sort of lends itself to a probabilistic 0:36:09 way of thinking and that things are not necessarily always complete, and that there is not a beginning 0:36:13 and an end, and that you can actually live very comfortably in an environment where things 0:36:18 are by nature complex, and that complexity is not necessarily something to avoid. 0:36:22 So in that sense, I do think there might be something kind of neat about ML and deep learning 0:36:26 and AI for that matter, because it is very much lending itself to that sort of mindset. 0:36:27 Yeah. 0:36:30 And in our research, we talk about working in small batches. 0:36:35 There’s a great video by Brett Victor called Inventing on Principle, where he talks about 0:36:39 how important it is to the creative process to be able to see what you’re doing, and 0:36:43 he has this great demo of this game he’s building where he can change the code and the game 0:36:46 changes its behavior instantly when you’re doing things like that. 0:36:48 You don’t get to see that. 0:36:52 No, and the whole thing with machine learning is how can we get the shortest possible feedback 0:36:56 from changing the input parameters to seeing the effect so that the machine can learn, 0:37:01 and that the moment you have very long feedback loops, the ML becomes much, much harder because 0:37:04 you don’t know which of the input changes caused the change in output that the machine 0:37:06 is supposed to be learning from. 0:37:10 So the same thing is true of organizational change and process, and product development 0:37:14 as well, by the way, which is working in small batches so that you can actually reason about 0:37:15 causing effects. 0:37:16 I changed this thing. 0:37:17 It had this effect. 0:37:20 Again, that requires short feedback loops. 0:37:21 That requires small batches. 0:37:24 That’s one of the key capabilities we talk about in the book, and that’s what DevOps enables. 0:37:28 So we’ve been this hallway style conversation around all these themes of DevOps, measuring 0:37:31 it, why it matters, and what it means for organizations. 0:37:36 But practically speaking, if a company, and you guys are basically arguing it, any company, 0:37:40 not necessarily a “company” that thinks it’s a tech company, and necessarily a company 0:37:44 that has this amazing modern infrastructure stack, it could be a company that’s still 0:37:45 working off mainframes. 0:37:48 What should people actually do to get started, and how do they know where they are? 0:37:52 So what you need to do is take a look at your capabilities, understand what’s holding you 0:37:56 back, try to figure out what your constraints are. 0:38:02 But the thing that I love about much of this is you can start somewhere, and culture is 0:38:04 such a core, important piece. 0:38:09 We’ve seen across so many industries, culture is truly transformative. 0:38:13 In fact, we measure it in our work, and we can show that culture has a predictive effect 0:38:17 on organizational outcomes and on technology capabilities. 0:38:23 We use a model from a guy called Ron Westrom, who was a social scientist studying safety 0:38:27 outcomes, in fact, in safety-critical industries like healthcare and aviation. 0:38:33 He created a typology where he organizes organizations based on whether they’re pathological, bureaucratic 0:38:34 or generative. 0:38:35 That’s actually a great topology. 0:38:37 I wanted to apply that to people I date. 0:38:38 I know, right? 0:38:39 Too real. 0:38:40 I wanted to apply it to people. 0:38:41 Too real. 0:38:42 There’s a book in there, definitely. 0:38:46 I like how I’m trying to anthropomorphize all these organizational things into people. 0:38:47 But anyway, go on. 0:38:52 Instead of the five love languages, we can have the three relationship types. 0:38:55 Pathological organizations are characterized by a low cooperation between different departments 0:38:58 and up and down the organizational hierarchy. 0:39:00 How do we deal with people who bring us bad news? 0:39:03 Do we ignore them, or do we shoot people who bring us bad news? 0:39:04 How do we deal with responsibilities? 0:39:08 Are they defined tightly so that when something goes wrong, we know whose fault it is, so 0:39:09 we can punish them? 0:39:12 Or do we share risks, because we know we’re all in it together, and it’s the team? 0:39:13 You all have to get in the game. 0:39:14 You’re all accountable, right? 0:39:15 Exactly. 0:39:16 We’re all in different departments. 0:39:18 And crucially, how do we deal with failure? 0:39:23 As we discussed earlier, in any complex system, including organizational systems, failure 0:39:24 is inevitable. 0:39:28 So failure should be treated as a learning opportunity, not whose fault was it, but why 0:39:32 did that person not have the information they needed, the tools they needed? 0:39:35 How can we make sure that when someone does something, it doesn’t lead to catastrophic 0:39:39 outcomes, but instead it leads to contained small blast radiuses? 0:39:40 Right. 0:39:41 Not an outage on Black Friday. 0:39:42 Right. 0:39:43 Exactly. 0:39:45 So how do we deal with novelty? 0:39:48 Is novelty crushed, or is it implemented, or does it lead to problems? 0:39:52 One of the pieces of research that kind of confirms what we were talking about was some 0:39:56 research that was done by Google, they were trying to find what makes the greatest Google 0:39:57 team. 0:40:01 You know, is it four Stanford graduates and no developer and fire all the managers? 0:40:04 Is it a data scientist and a Node.js programmer and a manager? 0:40:05 Right. 0:40:08 One product manager paired with one system engineer, with one. 0:40:14 And what they found was that the number one ingredient was psychological safety. 0:40:17 Does the team feel safe to take risks? 0:40:19 And this ties together failure and novelty. 0:40:25 If people don’t feel that when things go wrong, they’re going to be supported, they’re not 0:40:26 going to take risks. 0:40:29 And then you’re not going to get any novelty, because novelty by definition involves taking 0:40:30 risks. 0:40:34 So we see that one of the biggest things you can do is create teams where it’s safe to 0:40:39 go wrong and make mistakes, and where people will treat that as a learning experience. 0:40:42 This is a principle that applies, again, not just in product development, you know, the 0:40:46 lean start up, fail early, fail often, but also in the way we deal with problems at an 0:40:48 operational level as well. 0:40:50 And how we interact with our team when these things happen. 0:40:54 So just to kind of summarize that, you have pathological, this is a power oriented thing 0:40:58 where you know the people are scared, the messenger is going to be shot. 0:41:02 Then you have this bureaucratic kind of rule oriented world where the messengers aren’t 0:41:03 heard. 0:41:07 And then you have the sort of generative, and again, I really wish I could apply this 0:41:11 to people, but we’re talking about organizations here for culture, which is more performance 0:41:12 oriented. 0:41:15 And I just want to add one thing about this, you know, working in the federal government, 0:41:17 you would imagine that to be a very bureaucratic organization. 0:41:18 I would actually. 0:41:22 And actually, what was surprising to me was that yes, there’s lots of rules. 0:41:23 The rules aren’t necessarily bad. 0:41:26 That’s how we can operate at scale is by having rules. 0:41:28 But what I found was there was a lot of people who are mission oriented. 0:41:32 And I think that’s a nice alternative way to think about generative organizations. 0:41:34 You need to think about mission orientation. 0:41:38 The rules are there, but if it’s important to the mission, we’ll break the rules. 0:41:40 And we measure this at the team level, right? 0:41:45 Because you can be in the government and there were pockets that were very generative. 0:41:53 You can be in a startup and you can see startups that act very bureaucratic or very pathological. 0:41:54 Right. 0:41:55 The culture of the CEO. 0:41:59 Where it’s not charismatic, inspirational vision, but to the expense of actually being 0:42:01 heard and the messenger is shot, et cetera. 0:42:05 And we have several companies around the world now that are measuring their culture on a 0:42:09 quarterly cadence and basis because we show in the book how to measure it. 0:42:12 Western’s typology was the table itself. 0:42:16 And so we turn that into a scientific psychometric way to measure it. 0:42:19 Now this makes sense why I’m putting these anthropomorphic analogies because in this 0:42:22 sense organizations are like people. 0:42:23 They’re made of people. 0:42:24 Teams are organic entities. 0:42:28 And I love that you said that the unit of analysis is a team because it means you can 0:42:29 actually do something. 0:42:31 You can start there and then you can like see if it actually spreads or doesn’t spread 0:42:34 bridges, doesn’t bridge, et cetera. 0:42:38 And what I also love about this framework is it also moves away from this cult of failure 0:42:42 mindset that I think people tend to have where it’s like failing for the sake of failing. 0:42:44 And you actually want to avoid failure. 0:42:45 Right. 0:42:48 And the whole point of failing is to actually learn something and then be better and take 0:42:49 risks. 0:42:50 So you can implement these new things. 0:42:52 And very smart risks. 0:42:53 So what’s your final? 0:42:58 I mean, there’s a lot of really great things here, but like what’s your final sort of parting 0:43:02 take away for listeners or people who might want to get started or think about how they 0:43:03 are doing. 0:43:06 So I think, you know, we’re in a world where technology matters. 0:43:10 Anyone can do this stuff, but you have to get the technology part of it right. 0:43:15 That means investing in your engineering capabilities, in your process, in your culture, in your 0:43:17 architecture. 0:43:20 We dealt with a lot of things here that people think are intangible and we’re here to tell 0:43:21 you they’re not intangible. 0:43:22 You can measure them. 0:43:24 They will impact the performance of your organization. 0:43:29 So take a scientific approach to improving your organization and you will read the dividends. 0:43:32 When you guys talk about, you know, anyone can do this, the teams can do this, but what 0:43:37 role in the organization is usually most empowered to be the owner of where to get started? 0:43:39 Is it like the VP of engineering? 0:43:41 Is it the CTO, the CIO? 0:43:46 I was going to say, don’t minimize the role of and the importance of leadership. 0:43:53 DevOps sort of started as a grassroots movement, but right now we’re seeing roles like VP and 0:43:58 CTO being really impactful in part because they can set the vision for an organization, 0:44:01 but also in part because they have resources that they can dedicate to this. 0:44:04 We see a lot of CEOs and CTOs and CIOs in our business. 0:44:05 We have like a whole briefing center. 0:44:08 We hear what’s top of mind for them all the time. 0:44:09 Everyone thinks they’re transformational. 0:44:13 So like what actually makes a visionary type of leader who has that, not just the purse 0:44:18 strings and the decision-making power, but the actual characteristics that are right 0:44:19 for this. 0:44:20 Right. 0:44:21 And that’s such a great question. 0:44:24 We dug into that in our research and we find that there are five characteristics that end 0:44:31 up being predictive of driving change and really amplifying all of the other capabilities 0:44:32 that we found. 0:44:38 And these five characteristics are vision, intellectual stimulation, inspirational communication, 0:44:40 supportive leadership, and personal recognition. 0:44:46 And so what we end up recommending to organizations is absolutely invest in the technology. 0:44:51 So invest in leadership in your people because that can really help drive your transformation 0:44:52 home. 0:44:56 Well, Nicole, Jez, thank you for joining the A6 and Z podcast. 0:45:02 The book Just Out is Accelerate, Building and Scaling High-Performing Technology Organizations. 0:45:03 Thank you so much, you guys. 0:45:04 Thanks for having us. 0:45:04 Thank you.
One of the recurring themes we talk about a lot on the a16z Podcast is how software changes organizations, and vice versa… More broadly: it’s really about how companies of all kinds innovate with the org structures and tools that they have.
But we’ve come a long way from the question of “does IT matter” to answering the question of what org structures, processes, architectures, and roles DO matter when it comes to companies — of all sizes — innovating through software and more.
So in this episode (a re-run of a popular episode from a couple years ago), two of the authors of the book Accelerate: The Science of Lean Software and DevOps, by Nicole Forsgren, Jez Humble, and Jean Kim join Sonal Chokshi to share best practices and large-scale findings about high performing companies (including those who may not even think they’re tech companies). Nicole was co-founder and CEO of Dora, which was acquired by Google in December 2018; she will soon be joining GitHub as VP of Research & Strategy. Jez was CTO at DORA; is currently in Developer Relations at Google Cloud; and is the co-author of the books The DevOps Handbook, Lean Enterprise, and Continuous Delivery.
Tyler Cowen on Rationality, COVID-19, Talismans, and Life on the Margins | Brought to you by NutriBulletandExpressVPN.
“If you need to measure, you’ve failed.”— Tyler Cowen
Professor Tyler Cowen (@tylercowen) has a personal moonshot: to teach economics to more people than anyone else in the history of the world—and he might just succeed. In addition to his regular teaching at George Mason University, Tyler has blogged every day at Marginal Revolution for almost 17 years, helping to make it one of the most widely read economics blogs in the world.
Tyler cocreated Marginal Revolution University, a free online economics education platform that’s reached millions. He is also a bestselling author of more than a dozen books, a regular Bloomberg columnist, and host of the popular Conversations with Tyler podcast, where he examines the work and worldviews of thinkers like Martina Navratilova, Neal Stephenson, Reid Hoffman, and many more.
His latest project is Emergent Ventures, a $5 million fund to support entrepreneurs who have big ideas on how to improve society.
Please enjoy!
This episode is brought to you by NutriBullet. NutriBullet is the affordable, easy-to-use, easy-to-clean blender that was first recommended to me by entrepreneur Noah Kagan when I interviewed him for the podcast. Its signature blending process transforms high-fiber veggies, nuts, seeds, and fruits into silky, nutrient-dense smoothies (or protein shakes, savory soups, and dips) that are easy to digest and absorb.
Now, the engineers at NutriBullet have created an incredibly convenient upgrade named the NutriBullet Blender Combo. This device is their most versatile yet, allowing you to effortlessly switch between single-serve and full-size blending—everything that you know and love about the classic device, plus all the performance and capacity you expect from a full-size blender. Don’t settle for blenders that leave your smoothies filled with chunks. Get the NutriBullet Blender Combo, and introduce your veggies and fruits to 1,200 watts. It easily gets the job done. And for you, my dear listeners, NutriBullet is offering 20% off of all products on its website. To get your 20% off, just go to NutriBullet.com/Tim!
*
This episode is also brought to you by ExpressVPN. I’ve been using ExpressVPN since last summer, and I find it to be a reliable way to make sure that my data is secure and encrypted, without slowing my Internet speed. If you ever use public Wi-Fi at, say, a hotel or a coffee shop (where I often work and as many of my listeners do), you’re often sending data over an open network, meaning no encryption at all.
One way to ensure that all of your data is encrypted and can’t be easily read by hackers is by using ExpressVPN. All you need to do is download the ExpressVPN app on your computer or smartphone and then use the Internet just as you normally would. You click one button in the ExpressVPN app to secure 100% of your network data. Use my link ExpressVPN.com/Tim today and get an extra three months free on a one-year package!
***
If you enjoy the podcast, would you please consider leaving a short review on Apple Podcasts/iTunes? It takes less than 60 seconds, and it really makes a difference in helping to convince hard-to-get guests.
#78 – Ann Druyan: Cosmos, Carl Sagan, Voyager, and the Beauty of Science
Ann Druyan is the writer, producer, director, and one of the most important and impactful communicators of science in our time. She co-wrote the 1980 science documentary series Cosmos hosted by Carl Sagan, whom she married in 1981, and her love for whom, with the help of NASA, was recorded as brain waves on a golden record along with other things our civilization has to offer and launched into space on the Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 spacecraft that are now, 42 years later, still active, reaching out farther into deep space than any human-made object ever has. This was a profound and beautiful decision she made as a Creative Director of NASA’s Voyager Interstellar Message Project. In 2014, she went on to create the second season of Cosmos, called Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey, and in 2020, the new third season called Cosmos: Possible Worlds, which is being released this upcoming Monday, March 9. It is hosted, once again, by the fun and brilliant Neil deGrasse Tyson.
This conversation is part of the Artificial Intelligence podcast. If you would like to get more information about this podcast go to https://lexfridman.com/ai or connect with @lexfridman on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, Medium, or YouTube where you can watch the video versions of these conversations. If you enjoy the podcast, please rate it 5 stars on Apple Podcasts, follow on Spotify, or support it on Patreon.
This episode is presented by Cash App. Download it (App Store, Google Play), use code “LexPodcast”.
Here’s the outline of the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
OUTLINE:
00:00 – Introduction
03:24 – Role of science in society
07:04 – Love and science
09:07 – Skepticism in science
14:15 – Voyager, Carl Sagan, and the Golden Record
36:41 – Cosmos
53:22 – Existential threats
1:00:36 – Origin of life
1:04:22 – Mortality