Gaza, Ukraine, and the End of American Reliability — with Ian Bremmer

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0:00:32 This week on Unexplainable, zombies.
0:00:36 In a world where a team of scientists,
0:00:38 they’re studying zombie bugs,
0:00:39 and they’re like,
0:00:41 Oh, hey, wouldn’t it be great if we could
0:00:45 manufacture an artificial version of this zombie virus
0:00:46 and release it into the wild?
0:00:48 What could possibly go wrong?
0:00:51 Everything goes wrong.
0:00:54 Kill them. Kill the cockroaches.
0:00:57 You can’t kill a cockroach
0:00:59 if it’s already undead.
0:01:01 Follow Unexplainable
0:01:03 wherever you get your podcasts.
0:01:07 Here is a big existential question
0:01:09 for every media company today.
0:01:12 Do they fight the AI tech overlords?
0:01:14 Or do they just take their money?
0:01:17 So far, most of them are taking the money.
0:01:18 But a few are fighting.
0:01:20 One of them is Ziff Davis.
0:01:23 This is Peter Kafka, the host of Channels.
0:01:24 And on this week’s episode,
0:01:27 I’m talking to Ziff Davis, CEO of Ivec Shaw,
0:01:28 who tells me he’s kind of optimistic
0:01:29 about the media business
0:01:33 and why he’s taking on the people behind ChatGPT.
0:01:35 That’s this week on Channels,
0:01:37 wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.
0:01:42 Episode 367.
0:01:44 367 is the area code serving
0:01:45 northeastern Quebec, Canada.
0:01:50 1967, the world’s first ATM was installed in London.
0:01:51 Cheers to it.
0:01:53 I’ve been telling women recently
0:01:55 that I came into some money.
0:01:59 Just sounds better than I’ve been masturbating into ATMs.
0:02:04 That’s bad even for me.
0:02:07 Go, go, go!
0:02:19 Welcome to the 367th episode of the Prop G-Pod.
0:02:19 What’s happening?
0:02:23 I’m in London after going to New York for a speaking gig,
0:02:25 then Nashville, where I waited an hour
0:02:27 at some place called Hattie B’s for a chicken sandwich
0:02:30 that I think was worth 38 to 45 minutes,
0:02:31 not worth an hour wait.
0:02:34 But anyways, you know, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
0:02:37 Then I went to Aspen for a conference,
0:02:39 which I very much enjoyed.
0:02:40 It was beautiful there.
0:02:42 And then I came back.
0:02:43 I’m happy to be home.
0:02:45 It’s a gorgeous day in London,
0:02:47 which is not something you hear a lot.
0:02:49 And I went to look at,
0:02:51 I’m at that point now where I’m freaking out
0:02:52 about my son leaving.
0:02:54 So he’s like, I want a poster for my room.
0:02:55 I’m like, well, let’s go look at posters
0:02:57 and let’s just hang out and walk around.
0:02:59 So I’m in that kind of like,
0:03:01 dad won’t leave me alone.
0:03:04 phase where I literally walk him around the house.
0:03:06 Anyways, more importantly,
0:03:08 some news here.
0:03:11 Prop Sheet Conversations is a Signal Awards finalist
0:03:13 in two categories this year.
0:03:14 Oh, my God.
0:03:15 Oh, my God.
0:03:16 I just wet myself.
0:03:18 Business people and entrepreneurs shaping culture.
0:03:19 That’s me.
0:03:20 Shaping culture.
0:03:21 We’re shaping culture.
0:03:24 Also, the category, best host.
0:03:25 That’s right.
0:03:26 Okay.
0:03:28 Something tells me we’re not going to win that.
0:03:30 Anyways, if you’re so inclined,
0:03:32 you can vote for us in the Listener’s Choice Award
0:03:34 at the link in the description.
0:03:37 Voting is open until October 9th.
0:03:38 In today’s episode,
0:03:40 we speak with 14-time guest,
0:03:40 Ian Bremmer,
0:03:42 the president and founder of Eurasia Group,
0:03:44 the world’s leading political risk research
0:03:44 and consulting firm.
0:03:47 We discuss with Ian the state of global conflicts,
0:03:49 shifting global power dynamics,
0:03:51 and what it all means for America’s role.
0:03:53 So I’ve been asked to come on,
0:03:53 Pierce Morgan,
0:03:56 to talk about radical left versus radical right
0:03:58 being responsible for the Charlie Kirk shooting.
0:03:59 And the reality is,
0:04:01 that is literally like saying,
0:04:03 like Tottenham accusing Arsenal
0:04:05 of being responsible for climate change
0:04:07 and Arsenal accusing Tottenham for the,
0:04:09 I don’t know,
0:04:10 for income inequality.
0:04:10 It’s just,
0:04:12 it is an entirely false debate.
0:04:13 Yes,
0:04:14 evidence shows that
0:04:16 as you try to categorize these shooters,
0:04:17 there’s more from the radical right
0:04:18 than the radical left,
0:04:19 but it’s a false debate.
0:04:20 It doesn’t make any fucking difference
0:04:22 because if our elected leaders
0:04:23 are actually interested
0:04:25 in solving the goddamn problem
0:04:27 instead of pretending or cosplaying Obama
0:04:28 and saying that we need to turn the heat down
0:04:30 and I reach across the aisle
0:04:32 and I go golfing
0:04:33 and do master swimming
0:04:34 and play padel
0:04:36 with people on the other side of the aisle.
0:04:36 Well,
0:04:37 good for you.
0:04:37 Well,
0:04:38 good for you.
0:04:40 I hope that gets you another one or two straws
0:04:41 in a Poland aisle.
0:04:41 Well,
0:04:42 folks,
0:04:43 if you’re really interested
0:04:44 in preventing a tragedy of the commons,
0:04:46 the legs of the stool
0:04:47 of political violence,
0:04:48 mass shooting,
0:04:49 and essentially all shooting violence
0:04:50 in the United States
0:04:51 is three things.
0:04:52 One,
0:04:54 98%,
0:04:55 98.6%
0:04:56 of the mass shooters
0:04:56 are,
0:04:57 wait for it,
0:04:58 men.
0:04:59 The vast majority of them
0:05:01 are in their 20s,
0:05:02 sometimes in their 30s,
0:05:03 but generally speaking,
0:05:03 you don’t get a,
0:05:04 you know,
0:05:06 you don’t get an 85-year-old dude
0:05:07 shooting up a place
0:05:08 and you never get women
0:05:09 in general doing this.
0:05:10 Two,
0:05:12 the rage machine
0:05:13 being connected to profit.
0:05:14 We’ve never found anything
0:05:15 as profitable
0:05:16 as rage.
0:05:18 It’s created more shareholder value
0:05:19 than any of the magnificent 10,
0:05:20 traffic and rage
0:05:22 and so much attention
0:05:23 they’re sequestering young people
0:05:25 from the rest of the world
0:05:26 and finally access to guns.
0:05:27 Enough of the,
0:05:28 turn down the heat.
0:05:29 We need to come together.
0:05:29 Oh,
0:05:30 fuck you.
0:05:31 Go to Iowa,
0:05:31 collect your straws,
0:05:34 and then do your goddamn job.
0:05:36 So,
0:05:36 with that,
0:05:38 here’s our conversation
0:05:39 with Ian Bremmer.
0:05:54 Ian,
0:05:55 where does this podcast find you?
0:05:57 I am back in New York City
0:05:58 where you and I just
0:05:59 saw each other last week.
0:06:00 That’s right.
0:06:00 We did.
0:06:01 I had a nice time
0:06:02 and I met some really
0:06:05 impressive people.
0:06:05 No,
0:06:06 no surprise there.
0:06:07 So,
0:06:08 just a quick note,
0:06:09 we’re recording this conversation
0:06:10 with Ian on Tuesday,
0:06:11 so if any major headlines
0:06:12 have broken since then,
0:06:14 forgive us.
0:06:15 Anyways,
0:06:16 Ian,
0:06:17 let’s bust right into it.
0:06:17 Last week,
0:06:19 world leaders gathered in New York
0:06:20 for the 80th edition
0:06:21 of the UN General Assembly.
0:06:23 We’d love to get your thoughts
0:06:24 on Trump’s speech
0:06:25 and what the conference revealed
0:06:27 about the state of global politics.
0:06:28 It was so interesting
0:06:29 to have,
0:06:29 you know,
0:06:31 194 countries
0:06:33 all come to New York City.
0:06:34 A lot of those leaders,
0:06:35 it was the first time
0:06:36 that they had been
0:06:37 in the U.S.
0:06:39 since Trump’s
0:06:41 latest inauguration
0:06:43 and it is
0:06:44 the United States
0:06:45 and the level
0:06:46 of uncertainty
0:06:47 around what the U.S.
0:06:49 stands for,
0:06:51 what it’s pushing for,
0:06:52 how much you can rely
0:06:53 on the U.S.
0:06:55 That was the biggest
0:06:56 question mark
0:06:57 and a lot of those leaders
0:06:58 are deeply unsettled
0:06:59 by it, right?
0:07:00 I mean,
0:07:00 again,
0:07:01 the United States
0:07:03 created the United Nations
0:07:04 80 years ago
0:07:05 in America’s image
0:07:06 speech
0:07:07 and yet it was
0:07:07 Trump’s speech,
0:07:09 that 55-minute speech
0:07:10 that you and I both saw
0:07:12 that was most critical
0:07:14 of the United Nations,
0:07:16 of all of the countries there,
0:07:17 right?
0:07:17 I mean,
0:07:18 for a long time
0:07:19 there was this view
0:07:19 globally
0:07:20 that,
0:07:21 well,
0:07:22 the U.S.
0:07:23 is maybe in decline
0:07:25 and China’s rising
0:07:26 and so the U.S.
0:07:27 is going to be
0:07:28 trying to hold on
0:07:29 to its position
0:07:29 in the global order
0:07:30 as a leader
0:07:31 and China’s going to
0:07:32 try to knock it off.
0:07:33 That’s not what’s
0:07:34 happening at all,
0:07:34 right?
0:07:35 The United States
0:07:36 is not in decline,
0:07:37 its allies are
0:07:38 and the U.S.
0:07:39 is saying
0:07:40 we don’t want
0:07:41 to be the leader
0:07:42 of our own architecture.
0:07:43 We’re not interested
0:07:43 in that.
0:07:45 We want to change
0:07:45 the rules
0:07:47 to benefit us more
0:07:48 so it’s the incumbent
0:07:49 that wants to change
0:07:50 the rules
0:07:51 and it’s the Chinese
0:07:53 and most everyone else
0:07:53 that’s saying,
0:07:53 whoa,
0:07:54 whoa,
0:07:54 whoa,
0:07:54 we kind of would
0:07:55 like to keep it
0:07:57 sort of the way
0:07:57 it’s been.
0:07:58 You know,
0:07:59 we don’t want
0:08:01 all of the uncertainty
0:08:02 and that was what
0:08:03 Trump’s speech
0:08:04 was about.
0:08:05 It was about
0:08:06 that on trade,
0:08:06 it was about
0:08:07 that on borders,
0:08:07 it was about
0:08:08 that on sovereignty,
0:08:09 it was about
0:08:10 that on how
0:08:10 Trump is,
0:08:11 of course,
0:08:11 the greatest leader
0:08:12 ever.
0:08:13 There’s always
0:08:13 a lot of that.
0:08:15 You know,
0:08:15 the one piece
0:08:16 of Trump’s speech
0:08:17 that everyone
0:08:19 was supportive of
0:08:20 is his legitimate
0:08:22 effort to end wars
0:08:25 and also his failure
0:08:26 at the time
0:08:26 that he had given
0:08:27 the speech
0:08:28 on both Russia,
0:08:28 Ukraine,
0:08:29 and on Gaza.
0:08:30 Of course,
0:08:31 there’s been
0:08:32 a lot of progress
0:08:35 made on the Gaza file
0:08:36 over the last
0:08:37 few days,
0:08:38 not so much
0:08:39 on Russia,
0:08:39 Ukraine,
0:08:40 but still,
0:08:41 that’s where
0:08:42 you see the alignment
0:08:44 where on U.S.
0:08:45 leadership more broadly
0:08:46 and commitment
0:08:47 to things like
0:08:49 collective security,
0:08:50 free trade,
0:08:51 and, you know,
0:08:52 sort of rules
0:08:52 of the road,
0:08:54 there the Americans
0:08:54 are upsetting
0:08:55 the apple cart.
0:08:57 So we’ll come back
0:08:58 to Gaza in a second
0:08:59 and what we’re hoping
0:09:00 is progress there.
0:09:02 But Trump took
0:09:04 a pretty hostile tone
0:09:04 as he questioned
0:09:05 the purpose of the U.N.
0:09:06 as an organization
0:09:08 and right as,
0:09:09 you know,
0:09:09 the U.N.
0:09:10 is currently experiencing
0:09:11 an unprecedented
0:09:12 funding crisis.
0:09:14 What do you think,
0:09:15 and is there some
0:09:16 legitimacy to the notion
0:09:17 that the U.N.
0:09:17 has kind of lost
0:09:18 its purpose?
0:09:20 It’s 80 years old
0:09:22 and it,
0:09:23 certainly the Security Council
0:09:24 is broken
0:09:26 because there are
0:09:27 countries in it
0:09:29 that don’t align
0:09:31 and have permanent vetoes
0:09:32 and will stop anything
0:09:33 useful from happening,
0:09:35 Russia in particular.
0:09:38 You also have countries
0:09:39 that clearly should be
0:09:40 in the Security Council
0:09:43 that reflect the values
0:09:45 enshrined in the U.N.
0:09:46 charter that can’t be in
0:09:47 because no one
0:09:47 will let them in,
0:09:48 like Japan
0:09:49 and Germany
0:09:50 because they lost
0:09:51 World War II
0:09:51 or India
0:09:52 because they weren’t
0:09:53 even a country
0:09:54 in 1945
0:09:56 when the U.N.
0:09:57 was founded.
0:09:57 I mean,
0:09:58 those are stupid reasons
0:10:01 and it’s because
0:10:01 the U.N.
0:10:03 has been blocked
0:10:05 in structural reform
0:10:07 by the nature
0:10:08 of the organization
0:10:09 and the unwillingness
0:10:10 of countries
0:10:11 to allow it.
0:10:12 So, yeah,
0:10:13 the Security Council
0:10:14 is broken.
0:10:16 The General Assembly
0:10:18 is a massive food fight.
0:10:19 where everybody
0:10:20 gets to make
0:10:21 a statement
0:10:23 and does reflect
0:10:24 all of the different
0:10:25 countries around the world,
0:10:26 many of which
0:10:27 are completely
0:10:28 unrepresentative
0:10:28 of their people.
0:10:29 That’s a problem.
0:10:30 So,
0:10:31 but I think
0:10:32 it’s very valuable
0:10:33 to have it
0:10:34 because it allows
0:10:37 for those countries
0:10:37 to engage
0:10:38 in ways that
0:10:39 otherwise they wouldn’t.
0:10:40 And then you have
0:10:41 other things
0:10:42 that are done
0:10:43 by the U.N.
0:10:43 Secretariat,
0:10:44 by many of its
0:10:45 constituent bodies
0:10:47 that are becoming
0:10:48 much more important
0:10:49 even though
0:10:49 they’re weak
0:10:50 and poorly funded
0:10:51 because otherwise
0:10:53 nobody’s doing it.
0:10:53 I mean,
0:10:54 a lot more people
0:10:55 would die of starvation
0:10:56 if it wasn’t
0:10:56 for the U.N.,
0:10:57 especially once
0:10:58 the Americans
0:10:59 kill USAID.
0:11:01 A lot more
0:11:02 forcibly displaced
0:11:03 migrants living
0:11:05 in very poor countries
0:11:06 without proper
0:11:06 governance
0:11:08 would face
0:11:09 insecurity
0:11:10 that would
0:11:11 be incredibly
0:11:12 dangerous for them
0:11:13 if it wasn’t
0:11:13 for the U.N.
0:11:14 So these are
0:11:15 important things
0:11:16 to do
0:11:17 but it’s certainly
0:11:18 true that
0:11:19 Americans,
0:11:20 Europeans,
0:11:20 others don’t
0:11:21 very much value
0:11:23 that goal.
0:11:25 And then finally,
0:11:25 you know,
0:11:26 you’ve got the
0:11:26 direct role
0:11:28 of the Secretary General.
0:11:29 You know,
0:11:30 Russia, Ukraine
0:11:32 is this horrible war
0:11:33 ongoing
0:11:34 for three and a half years
0:11:36 and the only
0:11:37 significant
0:11:38 diplomatic breakthrough
0:11:39 since the war started
0:11:40 was made
0:11:41 not by the Americans,
0:11:42 not by the Europeans,
0:11:43 not by the Chinese,
0:11:44 but by Antonio Guterres,
0:11:46 the Secretary General
0:11:48 when he managed
0:11:49 to cobble together
0:11:50 this Black Sea
0:11:50 peace deal,
0:11:52 a grain deal
0:11:53 that allowed
0:11:54 for food and fertilizer
0:11:55 to be exported
0:11:56 despite the fighting
0:11:57 from Russia
0:11:58 and Ukraine,
0:11:59 which meant
0:12:00 that people
0:12:02 around the Global South
0:12:03 were getting access
0:12:05 to food and fertilizer
0:12:06 at a lower cost
0:12:08 and therefore
0:12:09 were less likely
0:12:10 to starve.
0:12:12 I’d love to say
0:12:13 other people
0:12:13 were doing that.
0:12:14 They weren’t.
0:12:15 So, I mean, yeah,
0:12:16 I think that we
0:12:17 as Americans
0:12:19 should actually
0:12:20 be really proud
0:12:21 of the United Nations
0:12:22 despite its weakness
0:12:23 and ineffectiveness.
0:12:24 We’re not.
0:12:26 We’re not at all.
0:12:27 And I fear
0:12:29 that some of the reason
0:12:30 for that
0:12:30 is because
0:12:31 the UN
0:12:32 reminds us
0:12:33 of a lot
0:12:34 of the things
0:12:35 that we used
0:12:36 to stand for
0:12:37 after World War II
0:12:39 that we’re not
0:12:39 so sure
0:12:40 we’re standing
0:12:40 up for anymore.
0:12:43 So, I want to,
0:12:43 just for the purposes
0:12:44 of exploring
0:12:45 the notion
0:12:45 of whether
0:12:46 the UN
0:12:47 is worth
0:12:48 the lift here
0:12:48 and the energy
0:12:49 and the funding,
0:12:51 I’ll be
0:12:53 no UN
0:12:53 or the UN
0:12:54 is outdated
0:12:55 or primitive
0:12:56 or just obsolete
0:12:57 at this point
0:12:58 and then I’d like
0:12:58 you to respond
0:12:59 where I get it right
0:13:00 and where I get it wrong.
0:13:01 So, you had mentioned
0:13:02 sort of structural
0:13:04 veto gridlock, right?
0:13:05 The Security Council
0:13:07 is held hostage
0:13:08 to its five
0:13:09 permanent members
0:13:10 and a veto
0:13:11 from Russia, China
0:13:11 or the U.S.
0:13:12 paralyzes action.
0:13:14 So, its governance
0:13:15 model is designed
0:13:16 as you referenced
0:13:17 for 1945,
0:13:18 not 2025.
0:13:21 There’s an enforcement
0:13:21 gap.
0:13:23 They can pass
0:13:23 resolutions
0:13:24 but they have
0:13:24 no teeth.
0:13:25 Aggressors
0:13:26 and autocrats
0:13:27 shrug off
0:13:28 all these strongly
0:13:29 worded statements.
0:13:30 you know,
0:13:31 it strikes me
0:13:31 as like
0:13:32 Charles Schumer
0:13:33 times a thousand
0:13:33 when I listen
0:13:34 to any UN
0:13:35 General Assembly
0:13:35 meeting.
0:13:37 A mismatched
0:13:38 legitimacy.
0:13:39 States with
0:13:40 little democratic
0:13:41 legitimacy
0:13:42 hold equal votes
0:13:42 in the General
0:13:42 Assembly.
0:13:43 Humanitarian
0:13:44 feelings.
0:13:45 These peacekeeping
0:13:45 missions are
0:13:47 chronically underfunded,
0:13:47 slow to deploy
0:13:49 and often tainted
0:13:50 by scandals
0:13:51 and then
0:13:52 there has been
0:13:53 innovation
0:13:54 around this type
0:13:55 of organization.
0:13:56 The G7,
0:13:57 the G20,
0:13:57 NATO,
0:13:58 bilateral deals.
0:13:59 The UN
0:14:00 has become
0:14:00 a stage
0:14:01 for speech
0:14:01 is not
0:14:01 solution.
0:14:03 So isn’t
0:14:04 the UN
0:14:04 where
0:14:04 kind of
0:14:05 these
0:14:06 big
0:14:07 global
0:14:08 problems
0:14:09 go to die
0:14:10 of bureaucracy?
0:14:11 It’s more
0:14:11 like,
0:14:13 you know,
0:14:14 it’s not
0:14:14 the United
0:14:14 Nations,
0:14:15 it’s sort
0:14:15 of a
0:14:16 united
0:14:16 inaction.
0:14:18 I like that.
0:14:18 Your thoughts?
0:14:19 Well,
0:14:20 first of all,
0:14:21 to be cute
0:14:22 about this,
0:14:22 but also
0:14:23 to be honest,
0:14:24 you know,
0:14:25 I love
0:14:26 your podcast.
0:14:27 I love
0:14:27 what you
0:14:28 stand for.
0:14:28 I thought
0:14:29 your last
0:14:29 book was
0:14:30 fantastic.
0:14:32 You have
0:14:32 no enforcement.
0:14:33 You have
0:14:33 no teeth.
0:14:34 You have
0:14:35 no ability
0:14:35 to take
0:14:36 your great
0:14:36 ideas
0:14:37 and make
0:14:38 them happen
0:14:38 and yet
0:14:39 I think
0:14:39 you’re very
0:14:39 valuable.
0:14:40 And I would
0:14:40 hate to see.
0:14:41 Comparing me
0:14:41 to the UN?
0:14:42 I’d hate
0:14:44 to see you
0:14:44 stop doing
0:14:45 what you’re
0:14:45 doing.
0:14:46 And the
0:14:47 idea that
0:14:48 the only
0:14:48 things that
0:14:49 matter are
0:14:50 things that
0:14:51 have teeth
0:14:52 and enforcement
0:14:53 in my view
0:14:54 is not
0:14:54 very humane.
0:14:55 It’s also
0:14:56 not our
0:14:57 human experience.
0:14:58 And the
0:14:59 fact is
0:15:00 that in
0:15:00 the Security
0:15:01 Council,
0:15:02 which desperately
0:15:03 needs reform,
0:15:05 it’s actually
0:15:05 the only
0:15:06 place where
0:15:07 the Americans
0:15:08 and the
0:15:08 Russians
0:15:09 regularly
0:15:10 have
0:15:11 informal
0:15:12 direct
0:15:13 connection
0:15:13 and
0:15:14 discussion
0:15:15 between
0:15:15 our
0:15:16 governments.
0:15:18 That’s
0:15:18 really
0:15:18 important.
0:15:19 So a
0:15:20 forum for
0:15:20 discourse.
0:15:21 Not just
0:15:21 discourse.
0:15:22 It’s not
0:15:22 just
0:15:23 discourse.
0:15:23 It’s
0:15:24 actually
0:15:25 becoming
0:15:26 aware of
0:15:27 what the
0:15:27 policies
0:15:28 are,
0:15:28 knowing
0:15:28 what
0:15:29 consequences
0:15:29 are,
0:15:30 knowing
0:15:30 what
0:15:30 red
0:15:30 lines
0:15:31 are.
0:15:32 This is
0:15:32 more than
0:15:33 discourse.
0:15:33 It’s
0:15:34 diplomacy.
0:15:35 It’s
0:15:35 back
0:15:36 channeling
0:15:36 that can
0:15:37 help to
0:15:37 lead to
0:15:38 breakthrough.
0:15:39 It can
0:15:39 help to
0:15:40 avoid
0:15:40 unnecessary
0:15:41 escalation.
0:15:43 So much
0:15:43 of what
0:15:43 the UN
0:15:44 is about
0:15:45 is that
0:15:46 you can’t
0:15:46 fix
0:15:47 anything
0:15:48 unless you
0:15:48 both
0:15:49 understand
0:15:50 what the
0:15:51 problem is.
0:15:51 You can’t
0:15:52 do anything
0:15:53 positive unless
0:15:54 you know what
0:15:54 the opportunity
0:15:54 is.
0:15:55 So climate
0:15:55 change.
0:15:57 The UN
0:15:58 has no
0:15:58 enforcement
0:15:59 capacity on
0:16:00 climate change
0:16:00 and I’d be
0:16:01 very uncomfortable
0:16:01 if it did.
0:16:03 I don’t like
0:16:03 the idea of
0:16:04 a global
0:16:05 government
0:16:05 telling us
0:16:06 here’s what
0:16:06 you have
0:16:07 to do.
0:16:09 but it
0:16:09 turns out
0:16:10 that the
0:16:10 UN was
0:16:11 the body
0:16:12 that got
0:16:13 all the
0:16:13 countries of
0:16:14 the world
0:16:15 together to
0:16:16 have a
0:16:16 common
0:16:18 definition of
0:16:19 what climate
0:16:20 change is.
0:16:21 People were
0:16:22 disagreeing that
0:16:22 it even
0:16:23 existed.
0:16:23 You know,
0:16:24 big oil
0:16:25 companies were
0:16:25 paying lots
0:16:26 of money.
0:16:26 Studies that
0:16:27 they knew
0:16:29 determined that
0:16:29 climate change
0:16:30 was real and
0:16:31 then they
0:16:31 buried them.
0:16:32 Right?
0:16:33 And that
0:16:34 persisted for
0:16:34 decades and
0:16:35 it was when
0:16:36 the UN set
0:16:36 up the
0:16:37 international
0:16:38 panel on
0:16:39 climate change
0:16:39 that you got
0:16:40 all these
0:16:41 scientific actors
0:16:41 together that
0:16:42 said, okay,
0:16:43 here’s the
0:16:43 parts per
0:16:44 million of
0:16:45 carbon in
0:16:45 the atmosphere.
0:16:46 Here’s how
0:16:47 much the
0:16:48 temperature has
0:16:48 changed.
0:16:49 Here are the
0:16:51 implications of
0:16:52 that for
0:16:53 different sorts
0:16:55 of, for
0:16:56 famine and
0:16:56 for floods
0:16:57 and for
0:16:58 droughts and
0:17:00 for lack of
0:17:00 biodiversity and
0:17:01 all these things
0:17:01 that matter.
0:17:02 Now, the
0:17:03 countries will
0:17:04 then have to
0:17:05 decide what
0:17:05 they want to
0:17:06 do.
0:17:07 Do they
0:17:07 ignore it?
0:17:08 Do they
0:17:09 adapt to it?
0:17:09 Do they try
0:17:10 to, you know,
0:17:11 sort of slow
0:17:11 it down?
0:17:12 Do they invest
0:17:13 more in
0:17:14 renewable energy?
0:17:15 But none of
0:17:16 that happens
0:17:17 efficiently or
0:17:19 effectively unless
0:17:20 the world agrees
0:17:20 that it’s
0:17:21 happening.
0:17:22 And now they
0:17:23 do.
0:17:24 And they do
0:17:25 because of the
0:17:26 United Nations.
0:17:27 I think that’s
0:17:27 enormously
0:17:28 important.
0:17:29 So, you
0:17:30 know, maybe in
0:17:31 our world of
0:17:32 winners making
0:17:33 headlines, the
0:17:33 UN doesn’t
0:17:34 make the
0:17:35 great headlines,
0:17:35 it doesn’t, you
0:17:36 know, sort
0:17:37 of cause, and
0:17:38 certainly the
0:17:39 Secretary General,
0:17:39 even that
0:17:40 breakthrough that
0:17:41 I talked about,
0:17:43 which Russia,
0:17:43 Ukraine, the
0:17:44 most important
0:17:45 war, ongoing
0:17:46 war, dangerous
0:17:46 war over the
0:17:47 last three plus
0:17:49 years, they were
0:17:50 the ones that
0:17:51 made the
0:17:51 consequential
0:17:52 difference.
0:17:53 And yet they
0:17:54 made almost no
0:17:55 headlines because
0:17:55 the Secretary
0:17:56 General doesn’t
0:17:57 really care about
0:17:57 talking to the
0:17:58 media that much.
0:18:00 and maybe
0:18:00 that’s really
0:18:02 quaint and
0:18:02 antiquated and
0:18:03 not the way we
0:18:04 want the world to
0:18:04 work.
0:18:05 I don’t care.
0:18:07 I also still want
0:18:07 people to read
0:18:08 books and not
0:18:09 become illiterate by
0:18:10 just looking at
0:18:12 videos on their
0:18:12 social media.
0:18:13 And I think the
0:18:15 UN is a part of
0:18:15 the world that we
0:18:16 need to have.
0:18:16 It’s kind of like
0:18:17 eating our
0:18:18 broccoli, you know?
0:18:19 I mean, the fact
0:18:19 that you don’t
0:18:20 want to do it and
0:18:21 the fact that it
0:18:22 doesn’t make you
0:18:24 Popeye immediately
0:18:26 doesn’t suddenly
0:18:26 mean that you
0:18:27 want to throw
0:18:27 it away.
0:18:28 I feel pretty
0:18:29 strongly about
0:18:29 this.
0:18:31 Yeah, yeah.
0:18:31 And I think you
0:18:32 make a compelling
0:18:33 argument and you
0:18:34 feel that discourse,
0:18:36 communication, I
0:18:36 mean, there’s no
0:18:37 doubt about it.
0:18:39 I haven’t done as
0:18:40 many of these
0:18:41 things as you, but
0:18:41 people are so
0:18:42 cynical about things
0:18:43 like Davos or
0:18:45 Allen and Company
0:18:46 or whatever it is,
0:18:47 Milken, and they
0:18:48 throw stones at it.
0:18:48 But I think it’s
0:18:49 important people get
0:18:50 together and talk
0:18:51 to each other and
0:18:52 you’re just less
0:18:53 likely to declare war
0:18:54 on or tariff
0:18:54 people you’ve
0:18:55 met and you
0:18:55 realize, well,
0:18:56 they seem pretty
0:18:56 rational, maybe
0:18:57 I’ll just call
0:18:57 them up.
0:18:57 And I want to
0:18:58 give you another
0:18:59 real example because
0:19:00 I live in New
0:19:01 York, right?
0:19:02 And I spend a lot
0:19:03 of time in D.C.,
0:19:04 which I’ll never
0:19:04 get back.
0:19:07 And, you know,
0:19:09 countries around
0:19:11 the world, they
0:19:13 send on balance
0:19:14 their most
0:19:15 important, most
0:19:17 capable diplomats,
0:19:18 they send them
0:19:20 to Washington,
0:19:22 Beijing, and
0:19:23 and New
0:19:24 York.
0:19:26 Now, why?
0:19:27 Why would they
0:19:28 send them to
0:19:29 New York, right?
0:19:30 I mean, you know,
0:19:31 the U.N.
0:19:32 is nothing compared
0:19:33 to the United
0:19:34 States and China.
0:19:36 And so you
0:19:37 wouldn’t just send
0:19:38 them to Brussels,
0:19:38 wouldn’t you send
0:19:39 them to, like, you
0:19:40 know, to Tokyo, I
0:19:41 mean, some other
0:19:42 important economy, at
0:19:42 least.
0:19:44 And the answer is
0:19:46 that smaller states
0:19:47 in particular, and
0:19:48 most of the world’s
0:19:49 countries are smaller
0:19:51 states, they send a
0:19:52 diplomat to
0:19:53 Washington, and
0:19:54 that person will
0:19:55 have, like,
0:19:56 occasional engagement
0:19:57 with an assistant
0:19:59 secretary of state.
0:20:01 In the United
0:20:02 Nations, every one
0:20:03 of those countries
0:20:05 has a seat, and
0:20:06 they engage with
0:20:07 all of the other
0:20:08 countries of the
0:20:09 world.
0:20:09 And these are
0:20:11 incredibly smart
0:20:13 diplomats who are,
0:20:15 you know, trying to
0:20:16 better understand the
0:20:18 state of play, better
0:20:19 promote their own
0:20:20 country with other
0:20:21 countries in the
0:20:22 world, and lead to
0:20:24 concrete cooperation
0:20:24 frequently in
0:20:25 countries.
0:20:25 They don’t even have
0:20:26 the money to have
0:20:27 an embassy in that
0:20:28 country.
0:20:29 So, I mean, the
0:20:31 UN is the one place
0:20:32 that allows for the
0:20:34 world’s governments to
0:20:35 engage with each
0:20:36 other constructively.
0:20:37 Like, I mean, if
0:20:39 it didn’t exist, you
0:20:40 would have to
0:20:40 recreate it.
0:20:41 And the fact that
0:20:42 that’s in the
0:20:44 United States, where,
0:20:45 by the way, the
0:20:46 United States has
0:20:47 incredible intelligence
0:20:48 gathering, I mean,
0:20:50 the surveillance alone
0:20:50 that the U.S.
0:20:52 government does, even
0:20:53 if you didn’t care
0:20:53 about the rest of
0:20:54 the world, even if
0:20:55 you were only
0:20:56 America first, you’d
0:20:57 say, don’t you dare
0:20:58 put that in another
0:20:59 country because we
0:21:00 need that information
0:21:01 for our own national
0:21:01 security.
0:21:03 I mean, just, it’s
0:21:05 ridiculous that people
0:21:07 just use this forum
0:21:08 as a punching bag.
0:21:11 We’ll be right back
0:21:12 after a quick break.
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0:25:07 Let’s move on.
0:25:08 You brought up Gaza.
0:25:09 I’d be really curious to
0:25:11 get your state of play
0:25:12 around what we’re hoping
0:25:14 is an end to the war.
0:25:16 Your thoughts on what’s
0:25:17 going on here,
0:25:19 what you think might be
0:25:20 going on that’s different
0:25:20 than the narrative or
0:25:21 what’s in the news today
0:25:22 regarding a potential
0:25:23 peace deal in the
0:25:23 Middle East.
0:25:25 First of all,
0:25:26 this is a big deal,
0:25:27 right?
0:25:28 I mean, this is,
0:25:28 we’ve had the war
0:25:29 going on now since
0:25:33 October 7th and the war
0:25:34 has just escalated,
0:25:35 right?
0:25:37 It’s been more and more
0:25:39 bombs and efforts to
0:25:42 take out Hamas in Gaza
0:25:43 as well as elsewhere.
0:25:46 It’s also expanded against
0:25:48 the axis of resistance
0:25:49 so-called, including
0:25:51 with Israel hitting Iran
0:25:53 itself and knocking back
0:25:54 their nuclear capabilities.
0:25:56 This is a big deal.
0:25:58 The Arabs and the
0:26:02 Palestinians get an Israeli
0:26:04 commitment of no annexation
0:26:06 of the West Bank or Gaza,
0:26:09 no displacement of the
0:26:10 Palestinians that are
0:26:11 living in those places,
0:26:15 some language about Gaza
0:26:16 eventually being connected
0:26:18 to the West Bank,
0:26:21 and also language that keeps
0:26:23 a two-state solution alive.
0:26:24 Doesn’t mean it’s going to
0:26:25 happen, doesn’t mean it’s
0:26:26 imminent, but that’s,
0:26:27 so that’s what they get.
0:26:31 Israel gets a release
0:26:33 of all hostages.
0:26:35 Hamas has to lay down
0:26:37 its arms and plays
0:26:39 no role in governance.
0:26:42 The Arabs shoulder the burden
0:26:44 of security as well as
0:26:46 reconstruction in coordination
0:26:48 with Israel.
0:26:50 So, this is objectively,
0:26:52 objectively, if it happens,
0:26:55 it is a really big deal.
0:26:57 And Trump deserves
0:26:59 and will get my
0:27:01 congratulations and credit
0:27:02 if they make this happen,
0:27:03 if this gets implemented,
0:27:04 just as he did when the
0:27:05 Abraham Accords
0:27:07 were signed
0:27:08 in his first term.
0:27:09 So,
0:27:11 that’s the first point.
0:27:12 It’s just a recognition
0:27:14 of what it is
0:27:16 that everyone is pushing,
0:27:17 and the Americans
0:27:17 are pushing it,
0:27:19 the Arabs are pushing it,
0:27:20 you’ve seen support
0:27:22 from the European leadership,
0:27:23 from the Canadians,
0:27:24 from Australia,
0:27:26 and from Israel.
0:27:26 Now,
0:27:27 we haven’t seen,
0:27:28 of course,
0:27:30 support from Hamas.
0:27:32 That’s the toughest one
0:27:33 to get over the line,
0:27:35 not least because
0:27:35 a lot of them
0:27:36 have been assassinated,
0:27:39 and also because
0:27:40 they are the most extreme
0:27:42 of all of the parties
0:27:43 here.
0:27:45 But,
0:27:47 but be that as it may,
0:27:48 why did we get
0:27:48 to this moment?
0:27:50 We got to this moment
0:27:52 because the Americans
0:27:53 have leverage
0:27:54 that they have been
0:27:55 extremely reluctant
0:27:56 to use
0:27:58 and they’re now using it.
0:27:59 And,
0:27:59 and that came
0:28:02 because they showed Israel
0:28:03 that there were going
0:28:05 to be hard consequences
0:28:06 if Israel
0:28:07 didn’t accept
0:28:08 this deal.
0:28:10 You know,
0:28:13 for over a year now,
0:28:13 almost,
0:28:14 you know,
0:28:14 we’ve seen
0:28:16 almost two years,
0:28:17 we’ve seen
0:28:20 no consequences
0:28:21 to Israel
0:28:23 from the military actions
0:28:24 that they have taken.
0:28:25 No one that they’re hitting
0:28:27 has any capacity
0:28:28 to hit them back.
0:28:29 and everyone
0:28:30 around the world
0:28:31 is saying
0:28:32 we don’t like this,
0:28:33 we condemn it,
0:28:34 we’re angry,
0:28:34 a bunch of countries,
0:28:35 MBS,
0:28:36 Mohammed bin Salman
0:28:37 said this is genocide.
0:28:38 You know,
0:28:39 we’ve got a ruling
0:28:40 against Bibi
0:28:42 and his secretary,
0:28:43 his minister of defense
0:28:43 and others
0:28:44 at the International
0:28:45 Court of Justice,
0:28:46 all of these things.
0:28:48 But there’s no real consequences.
0:28:50 Suddenly,
0:28:52 the United Arab Emirates
0:28:53 came out
0:28:54 and they said,
0:28:55 if you proceed
0:28:57 with annexation
0:28:59 of the West Bank,
0:29:00 which Netanyahu
0:29:01 said he was going to do,
0:29:03 or if you proceed
0:29:04 with occupation
0:29:05 and displacement
0:29:06 of Palestinians
0:29:07 from Gaza,
0:29:08 ditto,
0:29:09 then we,
0:29:10 the UAE,
0:29:11 will leave
0:29:13 the Abraham Accords.
0:29:15 And that was
0:29:16 a real consequence.
0:29:17 And they told Trump
0:29:19 directly last week,
0:29:20 that’s what we’re going to do.
0:29:21 And that’s when
0:29:22 Trump came out
0:29:23 and said,
0:29:24 there will be
0:29:25 no annexation.
0:29:26 He didn’t say,
0:29:28 I’m going to tell Bibi
0:29:30 or there’ll be consequences.
0:29:30 He said,
0:29:32 there will be
0:29:33 no annexation.
0:29:35 As if he was making
0:29:36 the decision for Israel.
0:29:36 In other words,
0:29:37 there are going to be
0:29:38 big consequences here.
0:29:39 And I’ve seen
0:29:40 the Israelis,
0:29:42 they’re really angry
0:29:43 that all these countries
0:29:45 are in the West
0:29:46 are now recognizing
0:29:47 a Palestinian state.
0:29:47 And he says,
0:29:48 they’re siding
0:29:48 with the terrorists
0:29:49 and all these,
0:29:50 these tough statements
0:29:51 from Israel.
0:29:53 they have not made
0:29:53 any tough statements
0:29:54 against the UAE
0:29:56 because they understand
0:29:57 that those consequences,
0:29:58 they don’t want to touch.
0:29:59 That will bite.
0:30:02 So that stopped Bibi
0:30:04 from announcing annexation.
0:30:05 And then Trump,
0:30:07 led by Jared Kushner
0:30:09 and by Steve Witkoff,
0:30:10 you know,
0:30:11 were engaging
0:30:12 with the Israelis,
0:30:14 with all of the Arab world
0:30:14 behind them.
0:30:15 They met
0:30:16 in a summit meeting
0:30:17 this last week
0:30:18 in New York.
0:30:18 again,
0:30:20 happened in the sidelines
0:30:21 of the UN,
0:30:22 the UN facilitating
0:30:22 all of this.
0:30:23 That’s why it happened
0:30:24 last week.
0:30:25 They all said,
0:30:27 you have to accept
0:30:28 this deal.
0:30:29 And so then
0:30:30 it was all set up
0:30:31 and the pressure
0:30:32 on Bibi was immense
0:30:34 and his far right
0:30:34 and his coalition
0:30:36 doesn’t like it one bit,
0:30:38 not happy about signing this.
0:30:39 But they,
0:30:40 when Trump was in that meeting
0:30:41 and said,
0:30:42 you’re going to do this
0:30:43 and even said,
0:30:45 I’m calling the Qatari Amir
0:30:45 and you’re going
0:30:46 to get on the phone
0:30:46 and you’re going
0:30:47 to apologize
0:30:49 for striking his country
0:30:50 and you will not
0:30:51 do it again.
0:30:52 And Bibi said,
0:30:53 I’m sorry
0:30:54 and I won’t,
0:30:55 I won’t hit Qatar again.
0:30:56 So,
0:30:56 I mean,
0:30:57 this is what it is.
0:30:59 This is the United States,
0:31:01 which is Israel’s
0:31:02 principal ally.
0:31:03 It’s one ally
0:31:04 of true consequence,
0:31:06 providing immense amounts
0:31:07 of defense support
0:31:08 and technology
0:31:10 and diplomatic cover
0:31:12 and economic engagement
0:31:13 and trade,
0:31:14 telling Israel,
0:31:15 enough,
0:31:16 you’re going to accept
0:31:17 this deal
0:31:17 and now Hamas
0:31:18 has to accept this deal
0:31:19 and we’ll see
0:31:20 if it’s going to happen.
0:31:21 Yeah,
0:31:22 it is.
0:31:23 It does feel really hopeful.
0:31:26 Let me just express,
0:31:27 I would love for you
0:31:27 to assuage
0:31:29 or comfort me
0:31:30 in my time of,
0:31:31 I don’t know
0:31:31 if it’s being
0:31:33 common sense,
0:31:35 cynicism or paranoia,
0:31:37 but I believe
0:31:37 that Netanyahu
0:31:38 is much smarter
0:31:39 than Trump
0:31:40 and that Trump’s
0:31:41 team of diplomats
0:31:42 and you probably
0:31:42 know them better
0:31:43 than me,
0:31:43 including,
0:31:44 you know,
0:31:45 great real estate
0:31:46 developers,
0:31:48 that there’s a chance
0:31:50 that Netanyahu
0:31:52 is playing Trump
0:31:54 and that has figured
0:31:54 out a way
0:31:55 to ensure Hamas
0:31:57 will not sign this.
0:31:57 I keep hearing
0:31:58 how everyone
0:32:00 is in favor
0:32:00 of this deal
0:32:01 and likes it
0:32:01 except for
0:32:03 the other side
0:32:03 and that is,
0:32:04 I don’t think
0:32:04 we’ve heard a lot
0:32:05 from Hamas
0:32:06 either rejecting
0:32:07 or endorsing the deal
0:32:08 and that we’re
0:32:09 playing with,
0:32:10 essentially,
0:32:11 unlike most recent wars
0:32:12 where people decide
0:32:13 that they love
0:32:13 their children
0:32:14 more than they hate
0:32:14 their enemy.
0:32:15 I haven’t seen
0:32:17 any evidence of that
0:32:18 and I wonder
0:32:19 if Netanyahu
0:32:20 has done the math
0:32:21 and says that
0:32:22 his survival,
0:32:23 political survival
0:32:24 and how he stays
0:32:24 out of jail
0:32:25 is to remain
0:32:26 on a constant war footing
0:32:28 and will figure out
0:32:29 a way to structure
0:32:30 a deal such that
0:32:31 it looks as if
0:32:31 he’s trying to get
0:32:32 a deal done
0:32:33 but ensures a deal
0:32:35 actually never happens.
0:32:37 Put to rest my fears
0:32:38 and cynicism here.
0:32:38 I can’t.
0:32:39 I can’t.
0:32:41 But I want to contain it
0:32:45 because the annexation
0:32:47 that he has promised
0:32:48 that he will not engage in
0:32:49 has nothing to do
0:32:50 with this deal.
0:32:52 That has to do with
0:32:53 do you want consequences
0:32:53 or not.
0:32:54 Trump said
0:32:54 you’re not going
0:32:55 to do it.
0:32:56 Even if Hamas
0:32:57 doesn’t accept
0:32:58 the offer
0:33:00 you Israel
0:33:01 are not annexing
0:33:01 the West Bank
0:33:02 so there’s a hard
0:33:03 constraint there.
0:33:06 The Americans
0:33:07 made it very clear
0:33:09 that they are not
0:33:09 now pushing
0:33:11 for taking
0:33:12 a couple million
0:33:13 Palestinians
0:33:14 out of Gaza.
0:33:14 You’ll remember
0:33:15 when Trump met
0:33:16 with the king
0:33:17 of Jordan
0:33:18 and he said
0:33:18 the Palestinians
0:33:19 will all want to leave
0:33:21 and that’s not
0:33:23 that was U.S. policy.
0:33:24 that’s not policy
0:33:24 anymore.
0:33:26 So even if Hamas
0:33:29 refuses this deal
0:33:30 and I think that
0:33:31 there’s every likelihood
0:33:32 that the deal
0:33:33 might not go forward
0:33:36 though Hamas itself
0:33:37 is under immense pressure
0:33:40 then that means
0:33:41 the fighting in Gaza
0:33:41 continues
0:33:43 but the Palestinians
0:33:45 Israel’s not going
0:33:46 to force them out
0:33:48 and they’re not going
0:33:49 to annex the West Bank.
0:33:51 so you have
0:33:52 kind of squeezed
0:33:54 what had been
0:33:54 a we’re going
0:33:55 to keep doing
0:33:56 we’re going
0:33:57 to keep moving
0:33:57 until we get
0:33:58 a greater Israel
0:33:59 this more
0:34:01 fundamentalist position
0:34:02 of the Israeli
0:34:03 far right
0:34:04 in the coalition
0:34:05 that has been
0:34:07 cut off at the knees
0:34:08 and that’s important.
0:34:09 Now
0:34:10 as the war
0:34:11 if Hamas
0:34:12 doesn’t accept
0:34:13 this deal
0:34:14 then it looks
0:34:15 a little bit
0:34:16 like the Abraham Accords
0:34:17 right
0:34:17 where
0:34:17 I mean
0:34:19 Trump offered
0:34:20 in Bahrain
0:34:22 in his first term
0:34:23 a road map
0:34:24 for what
0:34:25 a Palestinian state
0:34:26 would look like
0:34:28 and the Palestinians
0:34:29 were unable
0:34:31 to accept it.
0:34:33 They didn’t have
0:34:33 the governance
0:34:34 in place
0:34:35 and you know
0:34:36 the Hamas
0:34:37 was essentially
0:34:38 running Gaza
0:34:39 and the Palestinian
0:34:40 authority
0:34:41 was ineffectively
0:34:42 running
0:34:43 the West Bank
0:34:44 and so
0:34:45 the Abraham Accords
0:34:45 happened
0:34:47 but there was
0:34:47 no movement
0:34:48 towards a Palestinian
0:34:49 state
0:34:50 and the Palestinians
0:34:51 were largely
0:34:52 blamed for that
0:34:53 including by
0:34:54 the Gulf Arabs
0:34:55 that were supportive
0:34:56 of the Abraham Accords.
0:34:57 If Hamas
0:34:59 refuses this offer
0:35:00 that Israel accepts
0:35:01 then the war
0:35:03 in Gaza continues
0:35:05 and the Gulf states
0:35:06 will be like
0:35:06 well
0:35:07 this is on you
0:35:08 Hamas
0:35:08 this isn’t
0:35:09 on the Israelis
0:35:11 but so
0:35:11 I mean
0:35:12 in other words
0:35:12 you’ve constrained
0:35:14 the conflict
0:35:17 you’ve made
0:35:17 an offer
0:35:18 to both sides
0:35:20 one is accepting
0:35:20 it
0:35:21 maybe Israel
0:35:22 is not accepting
0:35:23 it in fully
0:35:23 good faith
0:35:24 I’m prepared
0:35:25 to buy that
0:35:26 argument
0:35:26 in terms of
0:35:27 the Israeli
0:35:27 prime minister
0:35:29 but ultimately
0:35:30 Hamas
0:35:31 is the
0:35:31 organization
0:35:32 that needs
0:35:33 to be smoked
0:35:33 out
0:35:34 and they’re
0:35:34 either going
0:35:35 to let
0:35:35 they have
0:35:36 to let
0:35:36 these
0:35:37 I mean
0:35:38 you’ll remember
0:35:39 during Trump’s
0:35:39 speech
0:35:40 last week
0:35:40 at the UN
0:35:41 he had
0:35:43 one significant
0:35:44 applause line
0:35:45 from the people
0:35:45 other than when
0:35:46 he finished
0:35:47 his whole speech
0:35:48 and that was
0:35:50 when he said
0:35:50 I want to
0:35:51 end this war
0:35:52 and the way
0:35:53 you end this war
0:35:54 is you let
0:35:55 all of these
0:35:56 hostages go
0:35:57 and that was
0:35:58 a line that
0:35:59 received applause
0:36:01 from many
0:36:02 many delegations
0:36:03 from all over
0:36:04 the world
0:36:05 it wasn’t just
0:36:06 Israel
0:36:07 and a couple
0:36:07 of close
0:36:08 allies
0:36:09 and
0:36:10 that is
0:36:11 this peace
0:36:11 deal
0:36:12 which the
0:36:13 Gulf
0:36:13 is completely
0:36:14 supporting
0:36:15 which Israel
0:36:15 is supporting
0:36:16 which the
0:36:16 U.S.
0:36:17 is brokering
0:36:19 requires Hamas
0:36:19 to let
0:36:21 these hostages
0:36:21 that they took
0:36:23 on October 7th
0:36:24 release them
0:36:25 release them
0:36:26 they now
0:36:27 can end the war
0:36:28 if they release
0:36:28 them
0:36:30 and
0:36:30 they have to
0:36:31 do it
0:36:32 they have to
0:36:32 do it
0:36:33 aren’t we
0:36:34 dealing with
0:36:34 something
0:36:35 I think it’s
0:36:35 natural that
0:36:36 the West
0:36:37 looks at
0:36:37 the fact
0:36:38 pattern
0:36:38 around how
0:36:39 wars end
0:36:40 and assume
0:36:40 that this
0:36:40 war will
0:36:41 end the
0:36:41 same way
0:36:42 and that
0:36:42 is
0:36:43 at the end
0:36:43 of World
0:36:44 War II
0:36:44 the German
0:36:45 leadership
0:36:46 after Hitler
0:36:47 committed suicide
0:36:48 decided okay
0:36:49 we’ve lost
0:36:50 the war
0:36:50 and we
0:36:51 don’t want
0:36:51 to see
0:36:52 our more
0:36:53 death and
0:36:53 destruction
0:36:54 here
0:36:54 and they
0:36:54 had
0:36:55 unconditional
0:36:55 surrender
0:36:56 Japanese
0:36:57 emperor
0:36:57 who a lot
0:36:57 of the
0:36:58 Japanese
0:36:58 public
0:36:58 thought
0:36:59 was a
0:36:59 god
0:36:59 said
0:36:59 I
0:37:00 can’t
0:37:01 tolerate
0:37:01 more
0:37:01 punishment
0:37:02 on behalf
0:37:02 of my
0:37:03 people
0:37:04 and that
0:37:04 is
0:37:04 at some
0:37:05 point
0:37:05 people
0:37:05 realize
0:37:06 they love
0:37:06 their
0:37:06 kids
0:37:06 more
0:37:06 than
0:37:07 they
0:37:07 hate
0:37:07 their
0:37:07 enemy
0:37:08 and what
0:37:09 I see
0:37:09 here
0:37:09 quite
0:37:09 frankly
0:37:10 is
0:37:11 a
0:37:11 group
0:37:11 of
0:37:11 people
0:37:12 Hamas
0:37:12 who
0:37:13 don’t
0:37:13 appear
0:37:13 to love
0:37:14 their
0:37:14 children
0:37:14 more
0:37:15 than
0:37:15 they
0:37:15 hate
0:37:15 their
0:37:15 enemy
0:37:16 that
0:37:16 they
0:37:16 think
0:37:16 of
0:37:16 their
0:37:17 they
0:37:17 implant
0:37:18 or
0:37:18 embed
0:37:18 their
0:37:19 children
0:37:20 in
0:37:21 military
0:37:21 targets
0:37:22 and so
0:37:23 aren’t
0:37:23 I mean
0:37:23 aren’t
0:37:24 we just
0:37:24 dealing
0:37:24 with a
0:37:25 different
0:37:26 format
0:37:27 here
0:37:27 I mean
0:37:27 I ask
0:37:28 I was
0:37:28 asked
0:37:28 the same
0:37:28 question
0:37:29 I’m
0:37:29 sympathetic
0:37:29 to
0:37:30 when
0:37:31 people
0:37:31 say
0:37:31 the war
0:37:31 needs
0:37:31 to
0:37:31 end
0:37:32 I
0:37:32 get
0:37:33 that
0:37:33 an
0:37:33 occupying
0:37:33 force
0:37:34 has
0:37:34 an
0:37:34 obligation
0:37:34 to
0:37:35 ensure
0:37:35 there’s
0:37:35 a
0:37:35 certain
0:37:35 level
0:37:35 of
0:37:36 humanitarian
0:37:36 aid
0:37:37 in that
0:37:38 region
0:37:39 they’re
0:37:40 enforcing
0:37:40 or occupying
0:37:40 at the
0:37:41 same
0:37:41 time
0:37:41 I
0:37:42 asked
0:37:42 myself
0:37:42 would
0:37:42 we
0:37:42 have
0:37:43 allowed
0:37:43 Nazis
0:37:43 to
0:37:44 stay
0:37:44 in
0:37:44 Germany
0:37:45 but
0:37:45 we’re
0:37:46 under
0:37:46 the
0:37:46 assumption
0:37:46 that
0:37:47 they’re
0:37:47 thinking
0:37:47 the
0:37:47 same
0:37:47 way
0:37:48 the
0:37:48 Germans
0:37:48 and
0:37:49 Japanese
0:37:49 thought
0:37:49 at the
0:37:49 end
0:37:49 of
0:37:50 World War II
0:37:50 when they
0:37:50 clearly
0:37:51 lost
0:37:51 the
0:37:51 war
0:37:52 and
0:37:52 are
0:37:52 we
0:37:52 just
0:37:53 dealing
0:37:53 with
0:37:53 an
0:37:53 entirely
0:37:54 different
0:37:54 complexion
0:37:55 where
0:37:55 the
0:37:56 leadership
0:37:56 of
0:37:56 Hamas
0:37:57 sees
0:37:57 future
0:37:57 deaths
0:37:58 of
0:37:58 their
0:37:59 own
0:37:59 citizenry
0:37:59 as
0:38:00 just
0:38:00 martyrdom
0:38:00 sure
0:38:01 but
0:38:01 I mean
0:38:02 we’re
0:38:12 we did
0:38:13 and I
0:38:13 was
0:38:14 very
0:38:15 comfortable
0:38:15 and
0:38:15 supportive
0:38:17 of that
0:38:18 decision
0:38:18 right
0:38:19 I mean
0:38:19 the
0:38:19 Americans
0:38:20 absolutely
0:38:21 needed to
0:38:21 take him
0:38:21 out
0:38:22 I
0:38:22 probably
0:38:23 would
0:38:23 have
0:38:23 rather
0:38:23 if he
0:38:23 had
0:38:23 just
0:38:24 died
0:38:24 in
0:38:24 prison
0:38:25 but
0:38:25 either
0:38:25 way
0:38:26 I
0:38:26 mean
0:38:26 he
0:38:26 was
0:38:27 you
0:38:27 know
0:38:28 a
0:38:28 terrorist
0:38:28 that
0:38:29 was
0:38:29 responsible
0:38:30 for
0:38:30 the
0:38:30 deaths
0:38:31 of
0:38:31 thousands
0:38:32 of
0:38:33 innocent
0:38:34 civilians
0:38:34 and in
0:38:34 that
0:38:35 regard
0:38:35 very
0:38:36 similar
0:38:36 to
0:38:36 what
0:38:37 Hamas
0:38:37 perpetrated
0:38:39 on
0:38:39 October
0:38:39 7th
0:38:40 and
0:38:40 those
0:38:40 leaders
0:38:41 have
0:38:41 been
0:38:42 killed
0:38:42 they’ve
0:38:42 been
0:38:43 killed
0:38:43 now
0:38:44 the
0:38:44 United
0:38:44 States
0:38:45 then
0:38:46 engaged
0:38:46 in
0:38:46 an
0:38:47 incredibly
0:38:48 bloody
0:38:48 war
0:38:49 that
0:38:50 lasted
0:38:51 decades
0:38:51 long
0:38:51 that
0:38:52 cost
0:38:53 trillions
0:38:53 of
0:38:54 dollars
0:38:55 that
0:38:55 you know
0:38:55 sort of
0:38:56 destroyed
0:38:57 far more
0:38:57 lives
0:38:58 than it
0:38:59 possibly
0:38:59 saved
0:39:00 that
0:39:01 led
0:39:01 to
0:39:02 the
0:39:03 reestablishment
0:39:03 of the
0:39:04 Taliban
0:39:05 in
0:39:05 Afghanistan
0:39:06 that are
0:39:06 now putting
0:39:07 incredibly
0:39:08 repressive
0:39:08 rules in
0:39:09 place
0:39:10 mistreating
0:39:10 their
0:39:10 citizens
0:39:11 particularly
0:39:11 their
0:39:12 women
0:39:12 did
0:39:12 the
0:39:13 United
0:39:13 States
0:39:14 fight
0:39:14 to
0:39:14 the
0:39:15 very
0:39:16 last
0:39:16 member
0:39:16 of
0:39:17 Al-Qaeda
0:39:18 no
0:39:19 no
0:39:19 they
0:39:20 didn’t
0:39:21 and
0:39:21 you know
0:39:22 I’m sure
0:39:22 that there’s
0:39:22 a lot
0:39:22 more
0:39:23 radicalization
0:39:24 on the
0:39:24 back
0:39:25 of how
0:39:25 far
0:39:25 and how
0:39:26 long
0:39:26 the
0:39:26 Americans
0:39:27 fought
0:39:27 because
0:39:28 of all
0:39:28 the
0:39:28 civilians
0:39:29 that were
0:39:29 caught
0:39:29 up
0:39:30 in
0:39:30 the
0:39:31 crossfire
0:39:32 so
0:39:33 I’m
0:39:34 very
0:39:34 comfortable
0:39:35 with
0:39:35 the
0:39:35 fact
0:39:35 that
0:39:36 the
0:39:36 military
0:39:37 leadership
0:39:37 of
0:39:37 Hamas
0:39:37 has
0:39:38 been
0:39:38 targeted
0:39:38 and
0:39:39 eradicated
0:39:40 I’m
0:39:40 not
0:39:40 comfortable
0:39:41 with
0:39:42 the
0:39:42 idea
0:39:42 that
0:39:43 a
0:39:43 radically
0:39:43 more
0:39:44 powerful
0:39:45 Israel
0:39:46 can
0:39:46 continue
0:39:47 a war
0:39:47 that is
0:39:48 mostly
0:39:49 at this
0:39:49 point
0:39:50 leading to
0:39:50 the
0:39:51 suffering
0:39:51 of the
0:39:52 Palestinian
0:39:52 people
0:39:53 as
0:39:53 opposed
0:39:54 to
0:39:54 further
0:39:55 degradation
0:39:55 of
0:39:56 Hamas
0:39:57 and
0:39:57 it’s
0:39:58 not
0:39:58 particularly
0:39:59 contributing
0:39:59 to
0:39:59 Israeli
0:40:00 security
0:40:00 in the
0:40:00 near
0:40:01 medium
0:40:01 or
0:40:01 long
0:40:02 term
0:40:03 so
0:40:03 I
0:40:03 have
0:40:03 a
0:40:04 hard
0:40:04 time
0:40:04 making
0:40:04 that
0:40:05 argument
0:40:06 I
0:40:06 don’t
0:40:06 like
0:40:06 the
0:40:07 idea
0:40:07 that
0:40:08 Hamas
0:40:08 fighters
0:40:09 are going
0:40:09 to get
0:40:10 amnesty
0:40:10 I’d
0:40:10 like
0:40:10 to see
0:40:11 everyone
0:40:12 responsible
0:40:13 for
0:40:13 their
0:40:13 crimes
0:40:14 I’d
0:40:14 like
0:40:14 to
0:40:14 see
0:40:15 Israelis
0:40:16 that
0:40:16 have
0:40:16 committed
0:40:16 war
0:40:17 crimes
0:40:17 held
0:40:18 responsible
0:40:18 for
0:40:19 those
0:40:19 too
0:40:20 but
0:40:20 at
0:40:20 the
0:40:21 end
0:40:21 of
0:40:21 the
0:40:21 day
0:40:22 we
0:40:23 live
0:40:23 in a
0:40:23 very
0:40:24 imperfect
0:40:24 society
0:40:25 and
0:40:25 what
0:40:25 we’re
0:40:25 trying
0:40:25 to
0:40:26 solve
0:40:26 for
0:40:27 is
0:40:28 less
0:40:29 humanitarian
0:40:30 destruction
0:40:31 less
0:40:31 killing
0:40:31 of
0:40:32 civilians
0:40:32 that
0:40:32 are
0:40:33 innocent
0:40:34 all
0:40:34 of
0:40:35 the
0:40:35 Jews
0:40:36 that
0:40:36 were
0:40:36 killed
0:40:37 on
0:40:37 October
0:40:38 7th
0:40:38 were
0:40:38 innocent
0:40:39 and
0:40:39 they
0:40:39 should
0:40:39 have
0:40:39 been
0:40:40 protected
0:40:40 and
0:40:40 they
0:40:41 weren’t
0:40:42 so
0:40:42 many
0:40:43 of
0:40:43 the
0:40:43 Palestinians
0:40:44 that
0:40:44 have
0:40:44 been
0:40:45 killed
0:40:45 over
0:40:45 the
0:40:46 past
0:40:46 nearly
0:40:46 two
0:40:47 years
0:40:48 are
0:40:48 innocent
0:40:49 so
0:40:49 a lot
0:40:49 of
0:40:50 kids
0:40:51 and
0:40:51 and
0:40:51 I
0:40:52 want
0:40:52 to
0:40:52 protect
0:40:52 those
0:40:53 people
0:40:54 I
0:40:54 remember
0:40:55 kind
0:40:55 of
0:40:55 the
0:40:55 first
0:40:55 book
0:40:56 that
0:40:56 really
0:40:56 moved
0:40:56 me
0:40:57 I
0:40:57 read
0:40:57 this
0:40:57 book
0:40:57 called
0:40:57 The
0:40:58 Winds
0:40:58 of
0:40:58 War
0:40:58 by
0:40:59 Herman
0:40:59 Wook
0:40:59 it
0:40:59 was
0:41:00 the
0:41:00 first
0:41:00 big book
0:41:01 I ever read
0:41:02 I think I read it in the 10th grade
0:41:04 and I remember asking my mom all these questions about it
0:41:05 and my history teacher about it
0:41:09 and kind of the first lesson I ever took away from an in-depth look at war
0:41:12 is it’s near impossible to find moral clarity in war
0:41:14 it’s just
0:41:16 it just means a lack of moral clarity
0:41:17 but
0:41:18 anyway
0:41:19 one of the things
0:41:21 I really admire about you
0:41:25 is you are able to maintain a certain level of impartiality
0:41:27 and I have a difficult time with that
0:41:28 I’m not a fan of this administration
0:41:30 and I have a tendency to
0:41:32 I think
0:41:34 see everything through dark colored glasses
0:41:36 and you are able to sort of parse through
0:41:38 I think more objectively certain actions
0:41:40 and give credit where credits do
0:41:43 can you for me describe America’s
0:41:46 view on Ukraine
0:41:49 what is our approach and our policy right now on Ukraine
0:41:50 well first of all
0:41:53 I appreciate you saying that Scott
0:41:53 and it’s not like
0:41:54 you know
0:41:56 I’m some automaton internally
0:41:58 I mean I have very strong views
0:41:59 I just know that
0:42:02 the world doesn’t respond to my strong views
0:42:04 and you know
0:42:05 the fact that I like or don’t like something
0:42:08 I spend all my time doing international affairs
0:42:12 I really feel compelled to try to understand what’s going on here either way
0:42:13 and so you know
0:42:15 I do legitimately believe
0:42:18 that Trump wants to end wars
0:42:20 I think he looks at Israel, Gaza
0:42:21 he looks at Russia, Ukraine
0:42:25 and he wants to end those wars
0:42:27 and yeah he wants a Nobel Peace Prize
0:42:28 and he wants credit for it
0:42:29 and that’s the way he’s wired for everything
0:42:31 and he wants more credit than he deserves
0:42:32 I mean Armenia, Azerbaijan
0:42:33 he ended that war
0:42:35 and they weren’t even fighting at the time
0:42:36 that’s you know
0:42:37 a lot easier to end a war
0:42:38 when they’re not fighting
0:42:42 but I think he legitimately thinks
0:42:44 that these are senseless
0:42:45 he doesn’t like the videos
0:42:47 he doesn’t like seeing you know
0:42:47 the people
0:42:48 the brutality
0:42:50 and he wants to end it
0:42:51 and you know that’s a place
0:42:53 where there is a lot of alignment
0:42:54 between the world
0:42:55 the community
0:42:56 that’s there at the UN
0:42:57 and Trump
0:42:58 and on Russia, Ukraine
0:43:00 he wants to end the war
0:43:00 and he’s tried
0:43:02 he’s tried
0:43:03 and you know
0:43:03 usually
0:43:04 Trump
0:43:05 one of Trump’s
0:43:06 political skills
0:43:08 and it served him very well
0:43:10 is that when he fails
0:43:11 at something
0:43:12 he moves on
0:43:15 he never refers to it again
0:43:16 it’s as if it didn’t even exist
0:43:18 he tries to get an attorney general
0:43:19 confirmed
0:43:20 doesn’t happen
0:43:22 never talks about that guy
0:43:23 it’s as if the vote
0:43:24 didn’t even happen
0:43:25 I got my Pam Bondi now
0:43:26 right
0:43:27 same thing
0:43:28 with like you know
0:43:28 sort of
0:43:29 doesn’t
0:43:30 has a problem with Modi
0:43:31 Modi’s economy
0:43:32 is failing
0:43:34 but now he wishes him
0:43:34 happy birthday
0:43:35 and now it’s a great
0:43:36 Indian economy
0:43:36 right
0:43:38 and we have so many
0:43:39 examples of this
0:43:41 Trump wanted to end the war
0:43:43 between Russia and Ukraine
0:43:45 he has failed at it
0:43:47 he’s not letting it go
0:43:49 he’s actually upset about it
0:43:52 and he has even admitted publicly
0:43:53 that he has failed
0:43:54 he’s like
0:43:55 I thought
0:43:56 that my relationship
0:43:57 with Putin
0:43:59 would lead to influence
0:44:00 and it hasn’t
0:44:01 he’s brought it up
0:44:02 when he hasn’t even been asked
0:44:03 the question
0:44:04 that’s
0:44:05 that’s kind of unique
0:44:07 there’s no other global issue
0:44:09 out there like that
0:44:10 for Trump
0:44:11 he’s really
0:44:13 pissed off
0:44:15 that he’s put effort in
0:44:17 and he’s given
0:44:17 Putin
0:44:19 he’s given him
0:44:20 phone calls
0:44:22 a face-to-face meeting
0:44:24 he’s treated him with respect
0:44:25 on the global stage
0:44:26 he said he’s willing
0:44:27 to take off
0:44:28 the sanctions
0:44:30 engage in joint investment
0:44:32 all of this stuff
0:44:34 none of which
0:44:34 Biden would have done
0:44:35 no other president
0:44:36 was going to do it
0:44:38 and Putin’s response
0:44:39 is go
0:44:39 screw yourself
0:44:40 I’m going to
0:44:40 I’m going to kill
0:44:41 more Ukrainians
0:44:43 Trump’s really angry
0:44:43 about it
0:44:44 and
0:44:45 and he wants
0:44:46 the Europeans
0:44:47 to do more of the lifting
0:44:48 and they are
0:44:49 and
0:44:50 and he wants to blame
0:44:52 other people primarily
0:44:54 but he understands
0:44:55 that like
0:44:56 this state of play
0:44:57 is no bueno
0:44:59 and he’s leaning into it
0:45:00 and so
0:45:01 what I see happening
0:45:03 in the last week
0:45:04 is
0:45:05 Trump
0:45:06 really trying
0:45:08 to squeeze
0:45:09 Putin
0:45:10 on
0:45:11 on his economy
0:45:12 and specifically
0:45:13 on oil
0:45:14 he’s talked about it
0:45:14 a bunch now
0:45:15 for several weeks
0:45:17 but in the last few days
0:45:19 he’s sharpened it
0:45:20 so
0:45:21 first it was
0:45:21 the Europeans
0:45:23 are buying all this oil
0:45:24 and they shouldn’t
0:45:26 but he wasn’t focusing
0:45:27 on the countries
0:45:28 doing the most
0:45:29 because they’re his friends
0:45:30 now in the last few days
0:45:31 he’s gone directly
0:45:32 to Viktor Orban
0:45:33 of Hungary
0:45:33 who’s buying
0:45:34 more oil
0:45:35 than almost anyone
0:45:36 in Europe
0:45:36 and he’s saying
0:45:38 I want you to stop
0:45:39 I want you to stop
0:45:40 he’s going to
0:45:41 Recep Erdogan
0:45:41 Turkey
0:45:43 Trump gets along
0:45:43 with him well
0:45:44 strong leader
0:45:45 right
0:45:46 meets with him
0:45:47 directly one on one
0:45:47 says
0:45:49 I want you to stop
0:45:50 buying Russian oil
0:45:50 Modi
0:45:52 Trump hasn’t
0:45:52 talked to him
0:45:53 directly about this
0:45:55 but Marco Rubio
0:45:56 has been doing
0:45:57 the direct engagement
0:45:58 they’re talking about
0:45:59 getting Trump
0:45:59 to India
0:46:01 for a summit meeting
0:46:02 what Trump wants
0:46:03 his return
0:46:04 is he wants
0:46:05 India to stop
0:46:06 buying Russian oil
0:46:07 and the Indians
0:46:07 have said
0:46:08 well you know
0:46:09 we can’t do it
0:46:09 immediately
0:46:10 but we can phase
0:46:11 it out over time
0:46:12 and they’re now
0:46:13 negotiating this
0:46:14 so it seems
0:46:15 pretty clear
0:46:16 that this is
0:46:17 not just
0:46:17 a headline
0:46:18 to blame
0:46:19 other countries
0:46:20 Trump actually
0:46:21 wants these
0:46:22 countries
0:46:23 to implement
0:46:24 and in return
0:46:25 he’s willing
0:46:26 to do more
0:46:27 and one of the
0:46:29 most interesting
0:46:31 bits that I got
0:46:32 from the UN
0:46:33 meetings last week
0:46:33 was when Trump
0:46:34 met with Zelensky
0:46:36 they talked about
0:46:38 the US
0:46:39 buying a whole bunch
0:46:40 of the ramped up
0:46:41 drone production
0:46:43 that Ukraine
0:46:45 is engaging in
0:46:45 with you know
0:46:46 very technologically
0:46:47 advanced
0:46:48 with all of this
0:46:49 real-time data
0:46:49 collection
0:46:51 and in return
0:46:52 the United States
0:46:53 would provide
0:46:54 more advanced
0:46:54 weapons
0:46:55 including cruise
0:46:56 missiles
0:46:57 that could more
0:46:58 effectively target
0:47:00 Russian energy
0:47:00 production
0:47:01 deep inside
0:47:02 that country
0:47:04 now that
0:47:05 that’s really
0:47:05 interesting
0:47:06 right
0:47:07 I mean
0:47:07 it would be
0:47:09 all of this
0:47:09 implies
0:47:11 Trump
0:47:12 leading
0:47:13 a significant
0:47:14 escalation
0:47:15 of stick
0:47:17 against Putin
0:47:18 because the
0:47:19 carrot by itself
0:47:20 has failed
0:47:20 I mean
0:47:21 watch this space
0:47:22 and Trump
0:47:23 is capable
0:47:24 of changing
0:47:24 his mind
0:47:25 five times
0:47:25 before you
0:47:25 and I
0:47:26 have another
0:47:27 conversation
0:47:27 about it
0:47:27 Scott
0:47:29 but this
0:47:29 is not
0:47:30 just a
0:47:31 headline
0:47:31 to be
0:47:32 forgotten
0:47:34 yeah
0:47:35 the pushback
0:47:36 I would put
0:47:37 forward in
0:47:37 and again
0:47:38 this might be
0:47:38 some of my
0:47:39 bias coming
0:47:39 out
0:47:40 is that
0:47:40 I can’t
0:47:41 think of
0:47:41 an
0:47:41 administration
0:47:42 maybe
0:47:42 where
0:47:43 we were
0:47:45 you know
0:47:45 with Iran
0:47:46 and Iraq
0:47:46 war
0:47:46 we were
0:47:46 kind of
0:47:47 hoping
0:47:47 the bullets
0:47:47 would win
0:47:48 and would
0:47:48 support one
0:47:48 side
0:47:49 when we
0:47:49 saw one
0:47:49 side
0:47:50 winning
0:47:51 I can’t
0:47:52 think of
0:47:52 a past
0:47:52 administration
0:47:53 that wasn’t
0:47:54 actively engaged
0:47:54 in trying
0:47:55 to solve
0:47:55 wars
0:47:57 so I get
0:47:57 that he
0:47:57 might hate
0:47:58 death
0:47:58 I don’t
0:47:58 think he
0:47:58 hates
0:47:59 death
0:47:59 in wars
0:47:59 any more
0:48:00 than
0:48:00 Secretary
0:48:01 Blinken
0:48:02 or Secretary
0:48:02 Clinton
0:48:02 did
0:48:04 the quote
0:48:04 unquote
0:48:05 ability to
0:48:05 move on
0:48:06 if you will
0:48:07 I would
0:48:07 describe a
0:48:08 sclerotic
0:48:08 foreign policy
0:48:09 that makes
0:48:09 it very
0:48:10 difficult for
0:48:10 us to be
0:48:11 seen as a
0:48:11 steadfast
0:48:12 ally or
0:48:12 enemy
0:48:13 he invites
0:48:14 Zelensky to
0:48:14 the White
0:48:15 House
0:48:15 makes a
0:48:16 fool of
0:48:16 him
0:48:17 puts pressure
0:48:17 on
0:48:17 Zelensky
0:48:19 oh you’ve
0:48:19 got to
0:48:19 face
0:48:20 reality
0:48:20 you can’t
0:48:21 win this
0:48:21 war
0:48:21 and now
0:48:22 all of a
0:48:22 sudden
0:48:22 he’s
0:48:22 angry
0:48:23 at Putin
0:48:23 it seems
0:48:23 very ego
0:48:24 driven
0:48:24 as opposed
0:48:25 to any
0:48:25 sort of
0:48:26 thoughtful
0:48:27 long-term
0:48:28 strategic goals
0:48:29 around increasing
0:48:30 investments in
0:48:30 cyber command
0:48:31 or asymmetric
0:48:32 warfare
0:48:33 the one thing
0:48:34 I think we
0:48:34 find common
0:48:35 ground on
0:48:36 is that I
0:48:36 think it is
0:48:37 a waste
0:48:37 of time
0:48:39 and poor
0:48:39 strategy
0:48:40 to expend
0:48:41 calories
0:48:41 trying to
0:48:42 reduce the
0:48:43 demand side
0:48:44 on the
0:48:44 oil
0:48:45 oil is
0:48:46 oil is
0:48:46 the great
0:48:46 fossil fuels
0:48:47 are still
0:48:47 the greatest
0:48:48 economic
0:48:48 arbitrage
0:48:49 in history
0:48:50 the Russians
0:48:50 will always
0:48:51 be able
0:48:51 to find
0:48:51 a buyer
0:48:52 if they
0:48:52 lower the
0:48:52 price
0:48:53 far enough
0:48:54 where I
0:48:55 do think
0:48:55 there’s
0:48:55 real common
0:48:56 ground
0:48:56 and I
0:48:56 think
0:48:57 should be
0:48:57 the
0:48:57 strategy
0:48:58 focused
0:48:59 or what
0:49:00 we should
0:49:00 be rallying
0:49:00 around
0:49:01 is figuring
0:49:01 out a
0:49:01 way
0:49:02 to go
0:49:03 the key
0:49:03 number
0:49:04 17%
0:49:04 and that
0:49:05 is Ukrainians
0:49:05 have been
0:49:05 able to
0:49:06 damage
0:49:06 17%
0:49:07 of Russia’s
0:49:08 oil
0:49:08 refining
0:49:09 capacity
0:49:10 I think
0:49:10 if we
0:49:11 can increase
0:49:11 that number
0:49:12 1%
0:49:13 every
0:49:14 two weeks
0:49:14 once it
0:49:15 hits 25
0:49:15 28
0:49:16 30
0:49:16 I think
0:49:17 Putin
0:49:17 all of a
0:49:17 sudden
0:49:18 comes to
0:49:18 the table
0:49:19 because this
0:49:19 is an
0:49:19 economy
0:49:19 that’s
0:49:20 50%
0:49:21 of the
0:49:22 GDP
0:49:22 it’s
0:49:22 basically
0:49:23 a gas
0:49:23 station
0:49:23 with a
0:49:23 government
0:49:24 right now
0:49:25 so it
0:49:26 strikes
0:49:27 just as
0:49:28 Newt Gingrich
0:49:28 said
0:49:29 in the
0:49:29 I guess
0:49:30 it was in
0:49:30 the 90s
0:49:31 go negative
0:49:32 go early
0:49:33 both
0:49:33 both
0:49:33 both
0:49:33 both
0:49:34 candidates
0:49:34 always
0:49:34 start
0:49:34 out
0:49:34 with
0:49:34 this
0:49:35 flag
0:49:35 this
0:49:35 is
0:49:35 going
0:49:35 to be
0:49:35 about
0:49:35 the
0:49:36 issues
0:49:36 and one
0:49:36 person
0:49:37 goes
0:49:37 negative
0:49:37 and he
0:49:38 goes
0:49:38 you’re
0:49:38 both
0:49:39 going to end up
0:49:39 going negative
0:49:40 just go
0:49:40 negative
0:49:40 go early
0:49:42 we have been
0:49:42 reticent to
0:49:43 provide
0:49:43 Ukrainians
0:49:44 with the
0:49:44 permissions
0:49:45 and weaponry
0:49:46 and cash
0:49:47 to damage
0:49:48 Russian
0:49:48 infrastructure
0:49:49 and I think
0:49:50 the sooner we
0:49:50 get there
0:49:50 the sooner
0:49:51 this war
0:49:51 is over
0:49:52 your thoughts
0:49:53 on
0:49:54 supplying them
0:49:55 with a
0:49:55 long range
0:49:56 long range
0:49:56 artillery
0:49:57 and missiles
0:49:57 such that
0:49:58 we can
0:49:58 take that
0:49:59 17 number
0:49:59 up to
0:50:00 30 or
0:50:00 35
0:50:01 which I
0:50:01 believe
0:50:01 ends
0:50:02 this war
0:50:03 your thoughts
0:50:03 yeah
0:50:04 I think
0:50:04 that
0:50:04 well
0:50:05 we’ll see
0:50:05 if it
0:50:05 ends
0:50:06 the war
0:50:07 I mean
0:50:07 Putin
0:50:08 the
0:50:09 Biden
0:50:09 administration
0:50:10 thought
0:50:10 that the
0:50:11 economic
0:50:11 measures
0:50:11 that they
0:50:12 took
0:50:12 would be
0:50:12 adequate
0:50:13 to force
0:50:13 Putin
0:50:14 to the
0:50:14 table
0:50:14 they were
0:50:15 wrong
0:50:16 you’ve
0:50:16 had a
0:50:17 million
0:50:17 plus
0:50:18 Russian
0:50:19 military
0:50:19 casualties
0:50:20 in this
0:50:20 war
0:50:21 that
0:50:21 would
0:50:21 bring
0:50:22 most
0:50:22 leaders
0:50:22 to
0:50:23 their
0:50:23 knees
0:50:24 it
0:50:24 has
0:50:24 had
0:50:24 no
0:50:25 impact
0:50:25 on
0:50:25 Putin
0:50:26 I’d
0:50:27 like
0:50:27 to
0:50:27 believe
0:50:28 that
0:50:28 having
0:50:28 a
0:50:29 significant
0:50:29 impact
0:50:30 on
0:50:30 his
0:50:30 oil
0:50:31 money
0:50:31 would
0:50:32 stop
0:50:32 him
0:50:32 I
0:50:33 think
0:50:33 it
0:50:33 has
0:50:33 a
0:50:33 greater
0:50:34 chance
0:50:34 of
0:50:34 doing
0:50:34 so
0:50:35 than
0:50:35 what
0:50:35 we’ve
0:50:35 seen
0:50:35 so
0:50:36 far
0:50:36 but
0:50:37 how
0:50:37 long
0:50:37 will
0:50:37 it
0:50:38 take
0:50:38 and
0:50:38 how
0:50:39 much
0:50:39 more
0:50:40 Ukrainian
0:50:40 land
0:50:40 and
0:50:41 how
0:50:41 much
0:50:41 more
0:50:41 damage
0:50:41 can
0:50:41 he
0:50:42 do
0:50:42 to
0:50:42 Ukrainian
0:50:43 civilian
0:50:44 population
0:50:45 and its
0:50:45 military
0:50:45 population
0:50:46 in the
0:50:46 interim
0:50:47 is an
0:50:47 open
0:50:47 question
0:50:48 but
0:50:48 I do
0:50:48 think
0:50:49 the
0:50:49 nature
0:50:49 of the
0:50:49 war
0:50:49 is going
0:50:50 to change
0:50:50 now look
0:50:51 I fully
0:50:52 accept
0:50:53 the
0:50:53 criticisms
0:50:54 of
0:50:54 Trump
0:50:55 that
0:50:55 you
0:50:55 just
0:50:55 laid
0:50:56 on
0:50:56 his
0:50:56 door
0:50:58 no
0:50:58 question
0:50:59 and
0:51:00 you
0:51:00 and
0:51:00 I
0:51:00 have
0:51:00 spoken
0:51:01 about
0:51:01 them
0:51:01 before
0:51:03 I
0:51:03 want
0:51:04 my
0:51:04 president
0:51:04 to
0:51:04 do
0:51:05 well
0:51:05 irrespective
0:51:06 of
0:51:06 who
0:51:06 that
0:51:06 person
0:51:07 is
0:51:08 it’s
0:51:08 not
0:51:08 up
0:51:08 to
0:51:08 me
0:51:08 it’s
0:51:08 up
0:51:09 to
0:51:09 the
0:51:09 president
0:51:10 what
0:51:10 I’m
0:51:11 getting
0:51:11 at
0:51:12 here
0:51:12 is
0:51:13 that
0:51:13 it
0:51:13 is
0:51:14 very
0:51:15 surprising
0:51:15 especially
0:51:16 in the
0:51:16 context
0:51:17 of a
0:51:17 lot
0:51:17 of
0:51:18 Trump
0:51:18 haters
0:51:19 who
0:51:19 have
0:51:19 been
0:51:20 saying
0:51:20 consistently
0:51:21 that
0:51:21 Trump
0:51:22 is
0:51:22 a
0:51:22 cut
0:51:23 out
0:51:23 for
0:51:23 the
0:51:24 Russians
0:51:24 that
0:51:24 he’s
0:51:25 somehow
0:51:25 in
0:51:25 their
0:51:25 pocket
0:51:26 that
0:51:26 he’s
0:51:27 carrying
0:51:27 water
0:51:28 for
0:51:28 them
0:51:29 that
0:51:29 we’ve
0:51:29 seen
0:51:29 a
0:51:30 dramatic
0:51:31 change
0:51:31 in
0:51:31 Trump’s
0:51:32 policy
0:51:33 on
0:51:33 Russia
0:51:34 from
0:51:35 January
0:51:36 to
0:51:36 now
0:51:37 a
0:51:38 dramatic
0:51:38 change
0:51:38 it’s
0:51:38 a
0:51:39 real
0:51:39 change
0:51:40 and
0:51:40 it’s
0:51:41 obviously
0:51:41 not
0:51:42 consistent
0:51:42 with
0:51:42 him
0:51:43 being
0:51:43 a
0:51:43 cut
0:51:43 out
0:51:44 of
0:51:44 the
0:51:44 Russian
0:51:45 government
0:51:45 which
0:51:45 is
0:51:45 lazy
0:51:46 analysis
0:51:46 I
0:51:47 agree
0:51:47 with
0:51:47 you
0:51:48 that
0:51:48 pretty
0:51:49 much
0:51:49 all
0:51:50 presidents
0:51:50 would
0:51:51 like
0:51:51 to
0:51:52 have
0:51:53 a
0:51:54 level
0:51:54 of
0:51:55 peace
0:51:55 and
0:51:55 end
0:51:55 wars
0:51:56 they
0:51:56 want
0:51:56 to
0:51:56 have
0:51:57 diplomatic
0:51:57 successes
0:51:58 but
0:51:59 Trump
0:51:59 has
0:52:00 been
0:52:01 exercised
0:52:02 mostly
0:52:02 with
0:52:02 himself
0:52:03 and
0:52:03 he
0:52:04 doesn’t
0:52:04 seem
0:52:04 to care
0:52:04 very
0:52:04 very
0:52:04 very
0:52:05 much
0:52:05 about
0:52:05 things
0:52:05 like
0:52:06 human
0:52:06 rights
0:52:06 and
0:52:06 other
0:52:07 things
0:52:07 that
0:52:07 most
0:52:08 presidents
0:52:08 really
0:52:08 do
0:52:09 care
0:52:09 about
0:52:09 even
0:52:10 though
0:52:10 it
0:52:10 may
0:52:10 not
0:52:10 be
0:52:10 on
0:52:11 the
0:52:11 top
0:52:11 of
0:52:11 their
0:52:11 priority
0:52:12 list
0:52:13 ending
0:52:13 wars
0:52:14 is
0:52:14 something
0:52:14 that
0:52:15 makes
0:52:15 Trump
0:52:15 a
0:52:16 more
0:52:16 normalized
0:52:17 president
0:52:18 compared
0:52:18 to
0:52:19 his
0:52:19 predecessors
0:52:20 and
0:52:20 compare
0:52:20 with
0:52:21 other
0:52:21 leaders
0:52:22 around
0:52:22 the
0:52:22 world
0:52:22 now
0:52:24 I
0:52:24 agree
0:52:26 wholeheartedly
0:52:27 that
0:52:28 Trump
0:52:28 is not
0:52:28 just an
0:52:29 unpredictable
0:52:30 president
0:52:31 he is
0:52:31 seen
0:52:31 by
0:52:32 most
0:52:32 of
0:52:32 his
0:52:33 allies
0:52:33 as
0:52:34 an
0:52:35 unreliable
0:52:35 president
0:52:36 and
0:52:36 as
0:52:37 a
0:52:37 consequence
0:52:39 they
0:52:39 are
0:52:39 taking
0:52:40 longer
0:52:40 term
0:52:41 steps
0:52:41 to
0:52:42 hedge
0:52:42 away
0:52:42 from
0:52:43 the
0:52:43 United
0:52:43 States
0:52:44 to
0:52:45 rely
0:52:45 less
0:52:45 on
0:52:45 the
0:52:46 United
0:52:46 States
0:52:47 that
0:52:47 will
0:52:47 truly
0:52:48 hurt
0:52:48 the
0:52:49 US
0:52:49 we’ve
0:52:50 also
0:52:50 seen
0:52:51 that
0:52:51 Trump’s
0:52:52 advisors
0:52:52 some
0:52:52 of whom
0:52:53 I
0:52:53 consider
0:52:53 very
0:52:54 capable
0:52:54 like
0:52:54 Marco
0:52:55 Rubio
0:52:56 some
0:52:56 of whom
0:52:56 I
0:52:57 consider
0:52:57 completely
0:52:58 incompetent
0:52:59 like
0:52:59 Pete
0:52:59 Hagseth
0:53:00 but
0:53:00 none
0:53:00 of
0:53:01 them
0:53:01 are
0:53:02 willing
0:53:03 to
0:53:03 actually
0:53:04 give
0:53:04 Trump
0:53:05 direct
0:53:05 criticism
0:53:06 we saw
0:53:07 that
0:53:07 with
0:53:08 signal
0:53:08 gate
0:53:09 and
0:53:10 we’re
0:53:10 seeing
0:53:11 that
0:53:11 just
0:53:11 in
0:53:11 the
0:53:12 last
0:53:12 24
0:53:13 hours
0:53:13 with
0:53:14 the
0:53:14 secretary
0:53:14 of
0:53:15 agriculture
0:53:16 you know
0:53:16 texting
0:53:17 the
0:53:18 secretary
0:53:18 of
0:53:18 treasury
0:53:19 and
0:53:19 saying
0:53:19 how
0:53:20 can
0:53:20 we
0:53:20 be
0:53:20 supporting
0:53:21 Argentina
0:53:22 when
0:53:22 they’re
0:53:22 just
0:53:22 going
0:53:23 behind
0:53:23 our
0:53:23 back
0:53:24 and
0:53:24 selling
0:53:25 cheaper
0:53:26 soybeans
0:53:26 to
0:53:26 the
0:53:27 Chinese
0:53:27 and
0:53:27 hurting
0:53:28 American
0:53:28 farmers
0:53:28 but
0:53:29 is she
0:53:29 going
0:53:29 to
0:53:29 say
0:53:30 that
0:53:30 or
0:53:30 is
0:53:30 he
0:53:30 going
0:53:31 to
0:53:31 say
0:53:31 that
0:53:31 directly
0:53:31 to
0:53:32 the
0:53:32 U.S.
0:53:32 president
0:53:33 the answer
0:53:33 is no
0:53:34 so I mean
0:53:35 we have
0:53:36 a president
0:53:37 who demands
0:53:38 loyalty
0:53:39 uber ales
0:53:40 and is
0:53:41 therefore
0:53:42 not getting
0:53:43 good information
0:53:44 from
0:53:44 from
0:53:45 from his
0:53:45 from his
0:53:45 team
0:53:45 and
0:53:46 he’s
0:53:46 making
0:53:47 capricious
0:53:47 decisions
0:53:48 because
0:53:49 he’s
0:53:49 right
0:53:49 all the
0:53:50 time
0:53:50 on
0:53:50 everything
0:53:50 and
0:53:51 he’s
0:53:51 the best
0:53:51 leader
0:53:52 ever
0:53:53 in history
0:53:54 anywhere
0:53:54 in the
0:53:55 world
0:53:56 and
0:53:56 it’s
0:53:56 all
0:53:57 exaggerated
0:53:58 and a
0:53:58 lot
0:53:59 of it
0:53:59 damages
0:53:59 the
0:54:00 U.S.
0:54:01 so it’s
0:54:01 not like
0:54:01 I think
0:54:02 he’s
0:54:02 fit
0:54:03 to be
0:54:03 president
0:54:04 but
0:54:05 he is
0:54:06 president
0:54:06 and he
0:54:06 won a
0:54:06 free
0:54:07 and fair
0:54:07 election
0:54:08 and he
0:54:08 got the
0:54:08 electoral
0:54:09 and the
0:54:09 popular
0:54:09 vote
0:54:10 and he
0:54:10 and he
0:54:11 is
0:54:11 president
0:54:12 of a
0:54:12 very
0:54:13 powerful
0:54:13 country
0:54:13 the
0:54:13 world’s
0:54:14 most
0:54:14 powerful
0:54:15 and he’s
0:54:15 also
0:54:16 consolidated
0:54:16 a lot
0:54:16 of
0:54:16 power
0:54:17 around
0:54:17 him
0:54:18 and
0:54:19 and
0:54:19 he’s
0:54:19 and he’s
0:54:19 doing
0:54:20 a lot
0:54:21 and some
0:54:21 of which
0:54:21 is
0:54:22 successful
0:54:23 so you
0:54:23 know
0:54:24 it’s
0:54:24 all
0:54:25 I mean
0:54:26 I could
0:54:26 spend
0:54:27 all of
0:54:27 my
0:54:27 time
0:54:27 just
0:54:28 saying
0:54:28 how
0:54:28 this
0:54:28 guy
0:54:28 is
0:54:29 unfit
0:54:30 okay
0:54:30 let’s
0:54:31 stipulate
0:54:31 that he’s
0:54:32 unfit
0:54:32 but now
0:54:33 let’s
0:54:33 look at
0:54:33 the
0:54:34 implications
0:54:35 of what
0:54:35 he’s
0:54:36 doing
0:54:36 as
0:54:37 president
0:54:38 and
0:54:38 and
0:54:38 the
0:54:39 reality
0:54:39 is
0:54:39 some
0:54:39 of
0:54:40 that
0:54:40 stuff
0:54:40 is
0:54:40 really
0:54:41 damaging
0:54:41 and
0:54:41 some
0:54:42 of
0:54:42 that
0:54:42 stuff
0:54:42 is
0:54:42 pretty
0:54:43 consequentially
0:54:44 positive
0:54:46 we’ll be
0:54:47 right back
0:54:59 support
0:54:59 for the
0:54:59 show
0:55:00 comes
0:55:00 from
0:55:01 Anthropic
0:55:01 cloud
0:55:01 is
0:55:02 the
0:55:02 AI
0:55:02 belt
0:55:02 for
0:55:02 people
0:55:03 who
0:55:03 don’t
0:55:03 settle
0:55:03 for
0:55:04 good
0:55:04 enough
0:55:04 it’s
0:55:05 not
0:55:05 just
0:55:05 a
0:55:05 chat
0:55:05 bot
0:55:06 it’s
0:55:06 a
0:55:06 true
0:55:07 collaborator
0:55:07 that
0:55:07 works
0:55:07 with
0:55:07 you
0:55:08 not
0:55:08 instead
0:55:08 of
0:55:09 you
0:55:09 whether
0:55:09 you’re
0:55:10 debugging
0:55:10 code
0:55:10 late
0:55:10 at
0:55:11 night
0:55:11 drafting
0:55:11 a
0:55:11 client
0:55:12 proposal
0:55:12 or
0:55:12 mapping
0:55:13 out
0:55:13 your
0:55:13 next
0:55:13 big
0:55:14 business
0:55:14 move
0:55:14 cloud
0:55:15 helps
0:55:15 you
0:55:15 think
0:55:15 deeper
0:55:16 sharper
0:55:16 and
0:55:17 faster
0:55:17 instead
0:55:17 of
0:55:18 handing
0:55:18 you
0:55:18 answers
0:55:18 it
0:55:19 engages
0:55:19 with
0:55:19 your
0:55:19 process
0:55:20 helping
0:55:20 you
0:55:20 reason
0:55:20 through
0:55:21 problems
0:55:21 and
0:55:21 uncover
0:55:22 smarter
0:55:23 solutions
0:55:24 what makes
0:55:24 cloud
0:55:24 different
0:55:24 is its
0:55:25 ability
0:55:25 to combine
0:55:26 context
0:55:27 and research
0:55:27 in a way
0:55:27 that actually
0:55:28 saves
0:55:28 time
0:55:29 its
0:55:29 internal
0:55:30 and external
0:55:30 research
0:55:31 tools go
0:55:31 far beyond
0:55:32 basic
0:55:32 search
0:55:32 delivering
0:55:33 comprehensive
0:55:34 trustworthy
0:55:34 analysis
0:55:35 with citations
0:55:36 you can share
0:55:36 directly with
0:55:37 clients or
0:55:37 colleagues
0:55:38 ready to
0:55:39 tackle bigger
0:55:39 problems
0:55:40 you can sign
0:55:40 up for
0:55:41 cloud
0:55:41 today
0:55:42 and get
0:55:42 50%
0:55:42 off
0:55:43 cloud
0:55:43 pro
0:55:43 when you
0:55:43 use
0:55:44 the
0:55:44 link
0:55:44 cloud
0:55:45 dot
0:55:45 ai
0:55:46 slash
0:55:47 prop
0:55:47 g
0:55:48 that’s
0:55:48 cloud
0:55:49 dot
0:55:49 ai
0:55:50 slash
0:55:50 prop
0:55:51 g
0:55:51 right
0:55:51 now
0:55:52 for
0:55:53 50%
0:55:53 off
0:55:53 your
0:55:53 first
0:55:54 three
0:55:54 months
0:55:54 of
0:55:54 cloud
0:55:55 pro
0:55:55 that
0:55:56 includes
0:55:56 access
0:55:56 to all
0:55:57 the
0:55:57 features
0:55:57 mentioned
0:55:57 in
0:55:58 today’s
0:55:58 episode
0:55:59 cloud
0:55:59 dot
0:55:59 ai
0:56:00 slash
0:56:01 prop
0:56:01 g
0:56:07 support
0:56:07 for the
0:56:08 show
0:56:08 comes
0:56:08 from
0:56:09 betterment
0:56:09 nobody
0:56:09 knows
0:56:09 what’s
0:56:10 going
0:56:10 to
0:56:10 happen
0:56:10 in
0:56:10 the
0:56:10 markets
0:56:11 tomorrow
0:56:11 that’s
0:56:11 why
0:56:11 when it
0:56:12 comes
0:56:12 to
0:56:12 saving
0:56:12 and
0:56:12 investing
0:56:13 it
0:56:13 helps
0:56:13 to have
0:56:13 a
0:56:14 long-term
0:56:14 approach
0:56:15 and a
0:56:15 plan
0:56:15 you can
0:56:15 stick
0:56:16 to
0:56:16 because
0:56:16 if
0:56:16 you
0:56:17 don’t
0:56:18 it’s
0:56:18 easy
0:56:18 to make
0:56:18 hasty
0:56:19 decisions
0:56:19 that
0:56:19 could
0:56:19 potentially
0:56:20 impact
0:56:20 performance
0:56:21 betterment
0:56:22 is a
0:56:22 saving
0:56:22 and investing
0:56:23 platform
0:56:23 with a
0:56:23 suite
0:56:23 of
0:56:23 tools
0:56:24 designed
0:56:24 to
0:56:24 prepare
0:56:24 you
0:56:24 for
0:56:25 whatever
0:56:25 is
0:56:25 around
0:56:25 the
0:56:25 corner
0:56:26 their
0:56:26 automated
0:56:27 investing
0:56:27 feature
0:56:27 helps
0:56:27 keep
0:56:28 you
0:56:28 on
0:56:28 track
0:56:28 for
0:56:28 your
0:56:29 goals
0:56:29 their
0:56:29 globally
0:56:30 diversified
0:56:30 portfolios
0:56:30 can
0:56:31 smooth
0:56:31 out
0:56:31 the
0:56:31 bumps
0:56:31 of
0:56:32 investing
0:56:32 and
0:56:32 prepare
0:56:32 you
0:56:32 to
0:56:32 take
0:56:33 advantage
0:56:33 of
0:56:33 long-term
0:56:34 trends
0:56:34 and
0:56:35 their
0:56:35 tax
0:56:35 smart
0:56:36 tools
0:56:36 can
0:56:36 potentially
0:56:37 help
0:56:37 you
0:56:55 betterment
0:56:56 go to
0:56:56 betterment
0:56:57 to
0:56:57 learn
0:56:57 more
0:56:58 that’s
0:57:00 b-e-t-t-e-r-m-e-n-t
0:57:01 dot com
0:57:02 investing
0:57:02 involves
0:57:02 risk
0:57:03 performance
0:57:03 not
0:57:04 guaranteed
0:57:10 support
0:57:10 for the
0:57:10 show
0:57:10 comes
0:57:11 from
0:57:11 linkedin
0:57:12 we say
0:57:12 this
0:57:12 all the
0:57:13 time
0:57:13 on our
0:57:13 show
0:57:13 but it
0:57:13 bears
0:57:14 repeating
0:57:14 running
0:57:15 a small
0:57:15 business
0:57:15 isn’t
0:57:15 just
0:57:16 a
0:57:16 full-time
0:57:16 job
0:57:17 it’s
0:57:17 about
0:57:17 a
0:57:17 dozen
0:57:18 full-time
0:57:18 jobs
0:57:18 that you
0:57:19 rarely
0:57:19 if
0:57:19 ever
0:57:20 get
0:57:20 to
0:57:20 clock
0:57:21 out
0:57:21 of
0:57:21 at
0:57:22 least
0:57:22 until
0:57:22 you
0:57:22 get
0:57:22 to
0:57:22 the
0:57:22 point
0:57:45 you
0:57:46 can
0:57:47 get
0:57:47 three
0:57:47 times
0:57:48 the
0:57:48 number
0:57:48 of
0:57:48 qualified
0:57:49 applicants
0:57:49 it’s
0:57:49 all
0:57:49 these
0:57:50 little
0:57:50 things
0:57:50 that
0:57:50 let
0:57:50 you
0:57:51 find
0:57:51 help
0:57:52 fast
0:57:52 without
0:57:53 compromising
0:57:53 on
0:57:53 quality
0:57:54 which
0:57:54 add
0:57:54 up
0:57:54 to
0:57:54 you
0:57:55 finally
0:57:55 having
0:57:55 extra
0:57:56 time
0:57:56 in
0:57:56 the
0:57:56 day
0:57:57 for
0:57:57 I
0:57:57 don’t
0:57:57 know
0:57:58 relaxing
0:57:59 or
0:57:59 knowing
0:58:00 my
0:58:00 listeners
0:58:00 you’ll
0:58:00 probably
0:58:01 use
0:58:01 that
0:58:01 extra
0:58:01 time
0:58:01 to
0:58:01 expand
0:58:02 your
0:58:02 empire
0:58:03 even
0:58:03 further
0:58:04 post
0:58:04 your
0:58:04 job
0:58:04 for
0:58:05 free
0:58:05 at
0:58:06 linkedin.com
0:58:06 slash
0:58:07 prof
0:58:07 that’s
0:58:08 linkedin.com
0:58:08 slash
0:58:09 prof
0:58:09 to post
0:58:09 your
0:58:10 job
0:58:10 for free
0:58:10 terms
0:58:11 and
0:58:11 conditions
0:58:11 apply
0:58:22 so just
0:58:22 to return
0:58:23 to
0:58:23 Ukraine
0:58:23 for one
0:58:24 moment
0:58:24 and I
0:58:25 ask this
0:58:25 question
0:58:26 generally
0:58:26 for
0:58:27 illumination
0:58:28 not
0:58:28 to
0:58:28 make
0:58:28 a
0:58:29 point
0:58:30 I
0:58:30 have
0:58:30 no
0:58:31 sense
0:58:31 for
0:58:31 who
0:58:31 has
0:58:32 the
0:58:32 momentum
0:58:32 right
0:58:33 now
0:58:33 the
0:58:33 Russians
0:58:34 or the
0:58:34 Ukrainians
0:58:34 what
0:58:35 just
0:58:35 tactically
0:58:36 on the
0:58:36 ground
0:58:37 what do
0:58:37 you think
0:58:37 is going
0:58:37 on
0:58:38 that’s
0:58:38 it’s
0:58:38 actually
0:58:39 a
0:58:39 great
0:58:39 question
0:58:40 I
0:58:41 wish
0:58:41 more
0:58:41 people
0:58:41 would
0:58:42 ask
0:58:42 it
0:58:43 because
0:58:43 it’s
0:58:43 hard
0:58:44 the
0:58:44 Russians
0:58:45 have
0:58:45 the
0:58:45 momentum
0:58:46 on
0:58:46 the
0:58:47 ground
0:58:48 on
0:58:48 the
0:58:48 ground
0:58:49 it is
0:58:49 limited
0:58:50 momentum
0:58:51 right
0:58:51 it is
0:58:52 it is
0:58:52 grinding
0:58:53 they don’t
0:58:54 they’re not
0:58:54 able to throw
0:58:55 the numbers
0:58:55 of troops
0:58:56 because of
0:58:56 the Ukrainian
0:58:57 drone
0:58:57 capabilities
0:58:58 it’s like
0:58:58 you know
0:58:58 sort of
0:58:59 two to
0:58:59 four troops
0:59:00 here
0:59:00 two to
0:59:00 four troops
0:59:01 there
0:59:01 but
0:59:02 but
0:59:03 they’re also
0:59:04 able to
0:59:05 get a lot
0:59:05 more
0:59:06 military
0:59:07 capability
0:59:08 to overwhelm
0:59:09 Ukrainian
0:59:09 air
0:59:10 defenses
0:59:11 nearby
0:59:12 so
0:59:12 it’s
0:59:13 hard
0:59:13 for
0:59:13 the
0:59:13 Ukrainians
0:59:14 to
0:59:14 defend
0:59:14 in
0:59:14 depth
0:59:16 on
0:59:16 the
0:59:16 ground
0:59:16 the
0:59:16 Russians
0:59:17 have
0:59:17 momentum
0:59:18 in
0:59:19 terms
0:59:19 of
0:59:20 hitting
0:59:21 critical
0:59:22 infrastructure
0:59:23 right now
0:59:23 the
0:59:24 Ukrainians
0:59:24 have
0:59:25 momentum
0:59:26 they’ve
0:59:26 been
0:59:26 doing
0:59:27 more
0:59:27 damage
0:59:28 with
0:59:28 their
0:59:29 drone
0:59:29 strikes
0:59:30 on
0:59:31 Russia’s
0:59:32 jet
0:59:32 fighters
0:59:32 for
0:59:33 example
0:59:34 $300
0:59:34 drones
0:59:35 taking
0:59:35 out
0:59:35 $100
0:59:36 million
0:59:36 jets
0:59:37 and
0:59:38 also
0:59:39 in
0:59:39 terms
0:59:39 of
0:59:39 hitting
0:59:39 a
0:59:40 bunch
0:59:40 of
0:59:41 Russia’s
0:59:41 refining
0:59:42 capabilities
0:59:43 some
0:59:43 domestic
0:59:44 oil
0:59:44 production
0:59:45 and
0:59:45 the
0:59:46 like
0:59:47 and
0:59:47 so
0:59:48 I
0:59:48 think
0:59:48 it
0:59:48 depends
0:59:48 on
0:59:49 what
0:59:49 part
0:59:49 of
0:59:49 the
0:59:50 military
0:59:50 you’re
0:59:51 talking
0:59:51 about
0:59:52 in
0:59:52 terms
0:59:52 of
0:59:53 who’s
0:59:53 doing
0:59:54 the
0:59:54 most
0:59:55 damage
0:59:55 I
0:59:55 think
0:59:56 Ukraine
0:59:57 is
0:59:58 under
0:59:58 more
0:59:59 time
0:59:59 pressure
1:00:00 right
1:00:00 now
1:00:00 right
1:00:01 now
1:00:01 right
1:00:01 now
1:00:02 that
1:00:02 could
1:00:03 change
1:00:04 depending
1:00:04 on to
1:00:04 what
1:00:05 extent
1:00:05 what
1:00:05 I
1:00:06 described
1:00:07 to you
1:00:07 in
1:00:08 the
1:00:08 change
1:00:08 of
1:00:09 Trump’s
1:00:09 position
1:00:10 is
1:00:11 lasting
1:00:12 and
1:00:12 is
1:00:12 implemented
1:00:13 that
1:00:13 could
1:00:14 change
1:00:14 it
1:00:15 might
1:00:15 be
1:00:16 that
1:00:16 the
1:00:16 Russian
1:00:17 economy
1:00:17 ends
1:00:17 up
1:00:18 facing
1:00:18 more
1:00:18 pressure
1:00:19 than
1:00:20 Ukraine’s
1:00:21 on the
1:00:21 ground
1:00:21 defense
1:00:22 capabilities
1:00:23 as of
1:00:23 right
1:00:23 now
1:00:23 that
1:00:23 is
1:00:24 not
1:00:24 true
1:00:25 so
1:00:25 for
1:00:25 right
1:00:25 now
1:00:26 I
1:00:26 would
1:00:26 say
1:00:26 Russia
1:00:27 has
1:00:27 the
1:00:27 momentum
1:00:28 but
1:00:28 I
1:00:29 think
1:00:29 it’s
1:00:29 very
1:00:30 much
1:00:30 in
1:00:30 flux
1:00:31 in
1:00:32 a way
1:00:32 that
1:00:32 it
1:00:32 hasn’t
1:00:33 been
1:00:33 for
1:00:33 two
1:00:34 years
1:00:36 so
1:00:36 in
1:00:36 our
1:00:36 remaining
1:00:36 time
1:00:37 here
1:00:37 and
1:00:37 as
1:00:37 always
1:00:37 really
1:00:38 generous
1:00:38 with
1:00:38 us
1:00:39 I
1:00:39 want
1:00:39 to
1:00:40 return
1:00:40 to
1:00:41 domestic
1:00:41 politics
1:00:41 and
1:00:42 granted
1:00:42 we’re
1:00:42 recording
1:00:43 this
1:00:43 it is
1:00:45 5.50
1:00:45 Greenwich
1:00:46 mean
1:00:46 time
1:00:46 p.m.
1:00:47 so
1:00:49 what we
1:00:49 say
1:00:49 here
1:00:49 could
1:00:49 be
1:00:50 obsolete
1:00:50 in
1:00:50 a
1:00:50 matter
1:00:51 of
1:00:51 minutes
1:00:52 I’m
1:00:52 just
1:00:52 curious
1:00:53 what
1:00:53 you
1:00:53 think
1:00:53 is
1:00:54 the
1:00:54 likelihood
1:00:54 of
1:00:54 a
1:00:54 shutdown
1:00:55 and
1:00:55 give
1:00:56 me
1:00:57 your
1:00:58 sense
1:00:58 for
1:00:59 some
1:00:59 of
1:00:59 the
1:01:00 semantics
1:01:01 at work
1:01:01 here
1:01:02 my
1:01:03 latest
1:01:03 from
1:01:03 the
1:01:04 administration
1:01:04 from
1:01:04 people
1:01:05 I
1:01:05 trust
1:01:05 is
1:01:06 75%
1:01:07 they’re
1:01:07 closer
1:01:08 to it
1:01:08 than
1:01:08 I
1:01:08 am
1:01:09 I
1:01:09 don’t
1:01:09 think
1:01:09 the
1:01:09 Dems
1:01:10 are
1:01:10 far
1:01:10 off
1:01:10 that
1:01:12 so
1:01:13 sure
1:01:13 I
1:01:14 think
1:01:14 it
1:01:14 is
1:01:14 likely
1:01:15 to
1:01:15 happen
1:01:15 and
1:01:15 if
1:01:15 it
1:01:16 does
1:01:16 happen
1:01:18 then
1:01:18 you
1:01:18 know
1:01:19 you
1:01:19 are
1:01:19 going
1:01:19 to
1:01:20 see
1:01:20 some
1:01:21 serious
1:01:23 consequences
1:01:23 in terms
1:01:24 of
1:01:24 people
1:01:24 fired
1:01:25 and
1:01:26 the
1:01:26 fact
1:01:26 that
1:01:26 Trump
1:01:26 is
1:01:27 willing
1:01:27 to
1:01:28 break
1:01:28 some
1:01:28 furniture
1:01:29 gives
1:01:29 him
1:01:29 the
1:01:30 upper
1:01:30 hand
1:01:31 in
1:01:31 the
1:01:32 negotiations
1:01:33 and
1:01:33 you
1:01:33 know
1:01:33 in
1:01:33 terms
1:01:34 of
1:01:34 who
1:01:34 gets
1:01:34 blamed
1:01:35 the
1:01:35 other
1:01:36 side
1:01:36 gets
1:01:37 blamed
1:01:37 I
1:01:37 mean
1:01:37 it’s
1:01:37 we’re
1:01:38 living
1:01:38 in
1:01:38 this
1:01:39 you
1:01:39 know
1:01:39 kind
1:01:39 of
1:01:40 upside
1:01:41 down
1:01:43 no
1:01:43 no
1:01:45 there
1:01:45 is
1:01:45 there
1:01:45 is
1:01:46 no
1:01:46 information
1:01:47 space
1:01:47 in
1:01:48 US
1:01:48 politics
1:01:48 that
1:01:49 is
1:01:49 shared
1:01:50 so
1:01:50 I
1:01:51 would
1:01:51 I
1:01:51 would
1:01:51 take
1:01:51 the
1:01:51 other
1:01:52 side
1:01:52 of
1:01:52 that
1:01:52 because
1:01:53 my
1:01:53 sense
1:01:53 is
1:01:53 to
1:01:54 your
1:01:54 point
1:01:56 Americans
1:01:57 don’t
1:01:57 like
1:01:58 parties
1:01:59 threatening
1:01:59 a
1:02:00 shutdown
1:02:00 for
1:02:02 political
1:02:03 opportunism
1:02:03 they’re
1:02:03 against
1:02:03 that
1:02:04 whether
1:02:04 it’s
1:02:04 for
1:02:04 to
1:02:04 build
1:02:04 the
1:02:05 wall
1:02:05 or
1:02:05 to
1:02:06 get
1:02:06 rid
1:02:06 of
1:02:06 or
1:02:06 to
1:02:07 reduce
1:02:07 payments
1:02:07 for
1:02:09 Obamacare
1:02:09 in this
1:02:10 instance
1:02:10 though
1:02:10 I think
1:02:11 the Democrats
1:02:11 are being
1:02:12 shockingly
1:02:12 strategic
1:02:13 and
1:02:13 they’re
1:02:13 going
1:02:13 after
1:02:13 a very
1:02:14 pointed
1:02:15 we want
1:02:15 tax
1:02:15 credits
1:02:15 for
1:02:16 Obamacare
1:02:16 which is
1:02:17 popular
1:02:17 not only
1:02:18 among
1:02:18 Democrats
1:02:19 but in
1:02:20 many of
1:02:20 the
1:02:20 Republican
1:02:21 states
1:02:21 that this
1:02:21 could
1:02:22 in fact
1:02:22 divide
1:02:23 Republicans
1:02:24 and that
1:02:24 it’s
1:02:24 very
1:02:24 pointed
1:02:25 it’s
1:02:25 very
1:02:25 easy
1:02:25 to
1:02:26 understand
1:02:27 and
1:02:27 there’s
1:02:27 a lot
1:02:27 of
1:02:28 support
1:02:28 amongst
1:02:29 Republicans
1:02:30 themselves
1:02:31 and that
1:02:31 this
1:02:33 might be
1:02:33 a winning
1:02:34 and quite
1:02:34 frankly
1:02:35 the Democrats
1:02:35 have to
1:02:36 show an
1:02:36 ability
1:02:36 at some
1:02:36 point
1:02:37 to
1:02:37 punch
1:02:37 pushback
1:02:38 I mean
1:02:38 it’s
1:02:38 like
1:02:39 leader
1:02:40 Jeffries
1:02:40 and
1:02:41 Senator
1:02:41 Schumer
1:02:41 it’s
1:02:41 kind
1:02:41 of
1:02:42 at this
1:02:42 point
1:02:43 wet
1:02:43 meat
1:02:43 blanket
1:02:44 I mean
1:02:44 the Democrats
1:02:45 are just
1:02:46 sort of
1:02:46 I think
1:02:47 starved
1:02:48 for some
1:02:48 sort of
1:02:49 reasonable
1:02:49 pushback
1:02:50 so I
1:02:50 would
1:02:51 the
1:02:51 surveys
1:02:52 I’ve
1:02:52 seen
1:02:52 have said
1:02:53 that the
1:02:53 Republicans
1:02:54 are more
1:02:54 likely
1:02:55 to be
1:02:55 held
1:02:56 accountable
1:02:56 for a
1:02:57 shutdown
1:02:58 than the
1:02:58 Democrats
1:02:58 but you
1:02:59 think
1:02:59 this
1:02:59 is
1:03:00 you
1:03:00 think
1:03:00 right
1:03:00 now
1:03:00 the
1:03:01 Republicans
1:03:01 have
1:03:01 the
1:03:01 upper
1:03:02 hand
1:03:03 I
1:03:03 think
1:03:04 the
1:03:04 Republicans
1:03:04 have
1:03:04 the
1:03:05 upper
1:03:05 hand
1:03:05 in
1:03:05 terms
1:03:06 of
1:03:06 well
1:03:06 I
1:03:06 think
1:03:06 Trump
1:03:07 has
1:03:07 the
1:03:07 upper
1:03:07 hand
1:03:08 because
1:03:08 he
1:03:09 is
1:03:10 in
1:03:10 charge
1:03:11 he
1:03:11 controls
1:03:12 a
1:03:12 party
1:03:13 and
1:03:13 the
1:03:14 Democrats
1:03:15 are
1:03:15 much
1:03:16 more
1:03:16 divided
1:03:16 they
1:03:17 don’t
1:03:17 have
1:03:17 a
1:03:17 leader
1:03:18 they’re
1:03:18 weak
1:03:18 we
1:03:18 don’t
1:03:19 really
1:03:19 know
1:03:19 what
1:03:19 they
1:03:19 stand
1:03:20 for
1:03:21 and
1:03:21 I
1:03:21 think
1:03:22 the
1:03:22 action
1:03:22 in
1:03:22 the
1:03:23 US
1:03:23 is
1:03:23 not
1:03:23 really
1:03:24 about
1:03:24 the
1:03:24 shutdown
1:03:25 I
1:03:25 think
1:03:25 the
1:03:26 action
1:03:26 is
1:03:27 about
1:03:27 Trump’s
1:03:28 continued
1:03:33 checks
1:03:33 and
1:03:33 balances
1:03:34 on
1:03:34 executive
1:03:35 authority
1:03:36 across
1:03:36 the
1:03:36 government
1:03:37 and
1:03:37 in
1:03:37 some
1:03:38 areas
1:03:38 he’s
1:03:38 having
1:03:38 real
1:03:39 success
1:03:40 and
1:03:40 in
1:03:41 some
1:03:41 areas
1:03:42 it’s
1:03:42 more
1:03:42 mixed
1:03:43 but
1:03:43 the
1:03:44 number
1:03:44 of
1:03:45 unprecedented
1:03:45 things
1:03:45 that
1:03:45 Trump
1:03:46 is
1:03:46 throwing
1:03:46 at
1:03:47 American
1:03:47 democracy
1:03:47 every
1:03:48 week
1:03:49 most
1:03:49 of
1:03:49 which
1:03:49 is
1:03:49 noise
1:03:50 like
1:03:50 the
1:03:50 latest
1:03:51 Pete
1:03:51 Hegseth
1:03:52 rally
1:03:53 or
1:03:54 the
1:03:54 cuttery
1:03:55 plane
1:03:55 but
1:03:55 some
1:03:56 of
1:03:56 which
1:03:56 is
1:03:56 real
1:03:57 and
1:03:57 I
1:03:57 think
1:03:57 the
1:03:58 Pam
1:03:58 Bondi
1:03:59 investigations
1:03:59 that’s
1:04:00 real
1:04:00 you know
1:04:01 you now
1:04:01 have
1:04:01 an
1:04:01 attorney
1:04:02 general
1:04:02 that
1:04:02 is
1:04:03 not
1:04:03 independent
1:04:03 in
1:04:04 any
1:04:04 way
1:04:05 from
1:04:05 the
1:04:05 president
1:04:06 and
1:04:06 that’s
1:04:06 a
1:04:07 meaningful
1:04:08 win
1:04:09 for
1:04:10 Trump
1:04:11 in
1:04:12 consolidating
1:04:12 authority
1:04:13 against
1:04:14 a
1:04:14 political
1:04:15 opposition
1:04:16 I
1:04:16 think
1:04:17 that
1:04:17 the
1:04:18 response
1:04:19 to
1:04:20 the
1:04:20 assassination
1:04:21 of
1:04:21 Charlie
1:04:21 Kirk
1:04:21 you
1:04:21 and
1:04:22 I
1:04:22 haven’t
1:04:22 spoken
1:04:23 publicly
1:04:24 since
1:04:24 that’s
1:04:24 happened
1:04:25 but
1:04:26 obviously
1:04:26 creates
1:04:27 a lot
1:04:27 of
1:04:28 momentum
1:04:29 for
1:04:29 Trump
1:04:30 I
1:04:30 think
1:04:31 Trump
1:04:31 won
1:04:32 for
1:04:32 me
1:04:33 the
1:04:33 thing
1:04:33 that
1:04:33 made
1:04:33 me
1:04:34 convinced
1:04:34 that
1:04:34 Trump
1:04:34 was
1:04:34 going
1:04:34 to
1:04:34 win
1:04:35 his
1:04:35 second
1:04:35 term
1:04:36 was
1:04:36 after
1:04:37 he
1:04:37 was
1:04:37 convicted
1:04:38 as
1:04:38 a
1:04:39 felon
1:04:40 for
1:04:40 specifically
1:04:41 for
1:04:41 charges
1:04:41 that
1:04:42 would
1:04:42 not
1:04:42 have
1:04:42 been
1:04:42 brought
1:04:43 against
1:04:44 other
1:04:44 people
1:04:44 when
1:04:44 there
1:04:44 were
1:04:45 charges
1:04:45 plenty
1:04:45 of
1:04:46 charges
1:04:46 that
1:04:46 he
1:04:46 should
1:04:46 have
1:04:46 been
1:04:46 convicted
1:04:47 on
1:04:47 in
1:04:47 other
1:04:47 cases
1:04:48 that
1:04:48 would
1:04:48 have
1:04:49 been
1:04:49 brought
1:04:49 against
1:04:49 anybody
1:04:50 else
1:04:51 but
1:04:51 those
1:04:51 weren’t
1:04:52 the
1:04:52 ones
1:04:52 he
1:04:52 was
1:04:52 gone
1:04:53 as
1:04:53 soon
1:04:53 as
1:04:53 I
1:04:53 saw
1:04:53 that
1:04:53 I’m
1:04:54 like
1:04:54 uh-oh
1:04:55 grievance
1:04:55 space
1:04:55 gonna
1:04:56 work
1:04:56 and
1:04:56 I
1:04:56 mean
1:04:57 you
1:04:57 know
1:04:57 then
1:04:57 he
1:04:58 survives
1:04:59 two
1:04:59 assassination
1:05:00 attempts
1:05:00 one
1:05:00 that
1:05:00 almost
1:05:01 kills
1:05:01 him
1:05:01 and
1:05:01 now
1:05:02 Charlie
1:05:02 Kirk
1:05:02 is
1:05:03 killed
1:05:03 I
1:05:03 mean
1:05:04 I
1:05:04 do
1:05:04 think
1:05:04 that
1:05:05 all
1:05:05 of
1:05:05 this
1:05:06 plays
1:05:07 more
1:05:08 effectively
1:05:09 for
1:05:09 a
1:05:10 president
1:05:10 who
1:05:10 has
1:05:11 won
1:05:12 on
1:05:12 the
1:05:12 back
1:05:12 of
1:05:13 they
1:05:13 are
1:05:13 trying
1:05:13 to
1:05:14 get
1:05:14 me
1:05:14 I
1:05:14 am
1:05:15 here
1:05:15 to
1:05:16 protect
1:05:16 you
1:05:17 and
1:05:18 and
1:05:18 you
1:05:18 know
1:05:18 this
1:05:19 ability
1:05:20 to
1:05:20 create
1:05:21 some
1:05:21 form
1:05:22 of
1:05:22 moral
1:05:23 equivalence
1:05:23 that
1:05:24 I’m
1:05:24 only
1:05:24 doing
1:05:24 to
1:05:24 them
1:05:25 what
1:05:25 they
1:05:25 already
1:05:25 did
1:05:26 they
1:05:26 already
1:05:27 canceled
1:05:27 us
1:05:27 so
1:05:27 I’m
1:05:28 canceling
1:05:28 them
1:05:29 they
1:05:31 jail
1:05:31 me
1:05:31 so
1:05:32 I’m
1:05:32 investigating
1:05:33 and
1:05:33 going
1:05:33 to
1:05:33 jail
1:05:34 them
1:05:34 it
1:05:35 is
1:05:35 not
1:05:35 equivalent
1:05:37 it
1:05:37 is
1:05:37 the
1:05:37 other
1:05:37 you
1:05:38 know
1:05:38 what
1:05:39 Biden
1:05:39 was
1:05:40 doing
1:05:40 was
1:05:41 not
1:05:41 weaponizing
1:05:42 the
1:05:42 institutions
1:05:43 anywhere
1:05:43 near
1:05:44 to the
1:05:44 same
1:05:44 degree
1:05:45 and
1:05:45 same
1:05:46 breadth
1:05:46 that
1:05:47 Trump
1:05:47 is
1:05:48 but
1:05:48 I
1:05:48 do
1:05:48 think
1:05:49 that
1:05:49 they
1:05:49 are
1:05:50 seen
1:05:50 as
1:05:51 equivalent
1:05:52 by
1:05:52 Trump’s
1:05:53 supporters
1:05:53 and
1:05:53 that
1:05:54 is
1:05:54 an
1:05:54 enormous
1:05:55 strength
1:05:55 that
1:05:55 he
1:05:55 has
1:05:56 managed
1:05:56 to
1:05:56 win
1:05:56 in
1:05:56 the
1:05:57 information
1:05:58 space
1:05:58 and
1:05:58 that
1:05:58 to
1:06:01 U.S.
1:06:01 domestic
1:06:02 politics
1:06:02 right
1:06:02 now
1:06:04 last
1:06:05 question
1:06:05 before
1:06:05 we
1:06:05 wrap
1:06:06 up
1:06:07 are
1:06:07 you
1:06:07 able
1:06:08 when
1:06:09 we’re
1:06:09 in
1:06:10 so
1:06:10 electronic
1:06:11 arts
1:06:11 is being
1:06:11 taken
1:06:12 private
1:06:12 and
1:06:12 the
1:06:12 largest
1:06:12 take
1:06:13 private
1:06:13 in
1:06:13 history
1:06:13 and
1:06:14 in
1:06:14 my
1:06:14 world
1:06:15 that
1:06:15 would
1:06:15 have
1:06:15 just
1:06:15 been
1:06:16 enormous
1:06:17 news
1:06:17 but
1:06:18 there’s
1:06:18 so
1:06:18 much
1:06:19 chaos
1:06:19 so
1:06:19 many
1:06:20 things
1:06:21 flying
1:06:21 overhead
1:06:22 and
1:06:22 you know
1:06:22 I teach
1:06:23 at a
1:06:23 business
1:06:23 school
1:06:23 we barely
1:06:24 even
1:06:24 notice
1:06:24 the
1:06:25 largest
1:06:25 take
1:06:25 private
1:06:25 in
1:06:26 history
1:06:26 because
1:06:26 there’s
1:06:26 so
1:06:27 much
1:06:27 other
1:06:27 stuff
1:06:28 going
1:06:28 on
1:06:29 do
1:06:29 you
1:06:30 find
1:06:30 periods
1:06:30 like
1:06:31 this
1:06:31 especially
1:06:32 because
1:06:32 you’re
1:06:32 right
1:06:32 in the
1:06:33 center
1:06:33 of it
1:06:33 do you
1:06:34 find
1:06:34 it
1:06:35 intoxicating
1:06:35 and
1:06:35 intellectually
1:06:36 inspiring
1:06:36 and
1:06:37 I know
1:06:37 it’s
1:06:37 good
1:06:37 for
1:06:37 your
1:06:38 business
1:06:39 or
1:06:40 does
1:06:40 it
1:06:40 start
1:06:40 to
1:06:41 affect
1:06:41 you
1:06:42 mentally
1:06:42 do
1:06:42 you
1:06:43 start
1:06:43 to
1:06:43 get
1:06:43 anxious
1:06:44 when
1:06:44 you
1:06:44 see
1:06:44 all
1:06:44 of
1:06:44 this
1:06:45 tumult
1:06:45 and
1:06:46 chaos
1:06:46 in
1:06:46 the
1:06:46 world
1:06:46 what
1:06:47 where
1:06:48 does
1:06:49 what
1:06:49 happens
1:06:49 to
1:06:49 you
1:06:50 personally
1:06:50 in
1:06:50 an
1:06:51 era
1:06:51 like
1:06:51 us
1:06:52 I
1:06:53 continually
1:06:54 think
1:06:54 of
1:06:55 things
1:06:55 that
1:06:55 I’m
1:06:55 not
1:06:56 exercised
1:06:56 by
1:06:58 you
1:06:58 know
1:06:58 my
1:06:58 it’s
1:06:59 funny
1:07:00 one
1:07:01 of the
1:07:01 things
1:07:03 that
1:07:04 you know
1:07:05 that update
1:07:05 that I
1:07:06 send you
1:07:06 on Monday
1:07:07 mornings
1:07:08 I mean
1:07:09 I got
1:07:09 a note
1:07:10 back
1:07:10 from my
1:07:11 friend
1:07:11 Bob
1:07:11 Iger
1:07:12 right
1:07:13 who was
1:07:13 like
1:07:14 there’s
1:07:14 so much
1:07:15 in here
1:07:16 you know
1:07:16 and you
1:07:16 know
1:07:17 you didn’t
1:07:17 even
1:07:17 you didn’t
1:07:17 even
1:07:17 say
1:07:18 anything
1:07:18 about
1:07:18 Kimmel
1:07:19 and I’m
1:07:19 like
1:07:20 you know
1:07:20 I
1:07:21 in the
1:07:21 grand
1:07:22 scheme
1:07:22 of
1:07:22 stuff
1:07:22 this
1:07:23 week
1:07:23 I
1:07:24 wasn’t
1:07:24 all
1:07:24 that
1:07:25 exercised
1:07:25 by
1:07:26 Kimmel
1:07:26 and
1:07:29 he said
1:07:29 I think
1:07:29 you’re the
1:07:30 only person
1:07:30 in the
1:07:30 country
1:07:31 and
1:07:32 my
1:07:33 response
1:07:34 was
1:07:34 well
1:07:35 right now
1:07:35 I’m
1:07:35 not that
1:07:36 exercised
1:07:36 by
1:07:36 Hegseth
1:07:37 and this
1:07:37 was
1:07:37 before
1:07:39 Hegseth
1:07:39 did his
1:07:40 thing
1:07:40 and a
1:07:41 whole bunch
1:07:41 of people
1:07:41 this week
1:07:42 were asking
1:07:42 me
1:07:42 how come
1:07:43 you didn’t
1:07:43 write
1:07:43 about
1:07:43 Hegseth
1:07:44 and I’m
1:07:44 like
1:07:45 because
1:07:46 I think
1:07:46 he’s
1:07:46 just
1:07:47 gonna
1:07:47 he’s
1:07:48 just
1:07:48 trying
1:07:48 to do
1:07:51 a
1:07:51 to
1:07:52 ingratiate
1:07:52 himself
1:07:52 with
1:07:53 Trump
1:07:53 after
1:07:54 he
1:07:54 screwed
1:07:54 up
1:07:55 and
1:07:55 the
1:07:55 signal
1:07:56 gate
1:07:56 and
1:07:56 he
1:07:57 had
1:07:57 the
1:07:57 big
1:07:58 defense
1:07:59 parade
1:08:00 and
1:08:00 it
1:08:01 didn’t
1:08:01 go
1:08:01 very
1:08:02 well
1:08:02 and
1:08:02 they
1:08:02 kind
1:08:02 of
1:08:03 mailed
1:08:03 it
1:08:03 in
1:08:04 so
1:08:04 I
1:08:04 thought
1:08:04 he
1:08:05 was
1:08:05 just
1:08:05 trying
1:08:05 to
1:08:06 bolster
1:08:06 himself
1:08:07 but
1:08:07 it
1:08:08 wasn’t
1:08:08 really
1:08:08 news
1:08:09 and
1:08:09 I’m
1:08:10 constantly
1:08:11 looking
1:08:12 for
1:08:13 the
1:08:14 things
1:08:14 out
1:08:14 there
1:08:15 that
1:08:15 I’m
1:08:15 not
1:08:16 exercised
1:08:16 by
1:08:17 there
1:08:17 are
1:08:18 a lot
1:08:19 of
1:08:19 them
1:08:19 and
1:08:20 I
1:08:20 think
1:08:20 it’s
1:08:20 really
1:08:21 really
1:08:21 good
1:08:22 to
1:08:22 be
1:08:22 like
1:08:22 yeah
1:08:23 I
1:08:23 don’t
1:08:24 care
1:08:24 about
1:08:24 that
1:08:25 I’m
1:08:25 not
1:08:25 sure
1:08:25 I
1:08:26 need
1:08:26 a
1:08:26 view
1:08:26 on
1:08:27 that
1:08:27 and
1:08:27 I
1:08:27 think
1:08:28 that’s
1:08:28 okay
1:08:29 like
1:08:29 I
1:08:29 really
1:08:30 want
1:08:30 to be
1:08:30 in a
1:08:31 position
1:08:31 where
1:08:31 the
1:08:31 stuff
1:08:32 that
1:08:32 I’m
1:08:32 opining
1:08:33 on
1:08:33 strongly
1:08:34 is
1:08:35 stuff
1:08:35 that
1:08:35 I
1:08:36 actually
1:08:36 have
1:08:37 some
1:08:37 real
1:08:37 expertise
1:08:38 and
1:08:38 the
1:08:39 other
1:08:39 stuff
1:08:40 it’s
1:08:40 not
1:08:40 like
1:08:40 it
1:08:41 doesn’t
1:08:41 matter
1:08:42 it’s
1:08:42 just
1:08:43 that
1:08:43 you
1:08:43 know
1:08:44 you
1:08:44 and
1:08:44 I
1:08:44 we
1:08:45 only
1:08:45 have
1:08:45 so
1:08:45 much
1:08:46 headspace
1:08:46 and
1:08:47 you
1:08:47 know
1:08:47 I’ve
1:08:47 seen
1:08:48 you
1:08:48 speak
1:08:48 live
1:08:48 a
1:08:49 bunch
1:08:49 of
1:08:49 times
1:08:50 Scott
1:08:56 and
1:08:56 aren’t
1:08:57 positioning
1:08:57 themselves
1:08:58 to be
1:08:58 valuable
1:08:58 and what
1:08:59 that
1:08:59 brand
1:08:59 means
1:09:00 and
1:09:00 you’re
1:09:00 better
1:09:00 at
1:09:01 that
1:09:01 than
1:09:02 anyone
1:09:02 I
1:09:02 have
1:09:02 ever
1:09:03 seen
1:09:03 personally
1:09:04 and
1:09:04 I
1:09:04 don’t
1:09:05 when
1:09:05 you’re
1:09:05 doing
1:09:05 that
1:09:06 I
1:09:06 don’t
1:09:06 feel
1:09:06 like
1:09:06 oh
1:09:07 there’s
1:09:07 so
1:09:07 much
1:09:08 information
1:09:08 that
1:09:08 Scott’s
1:09:08 being
1:09:09 flustered
1:09:09 by it
1:09:10 I
1:09:10 don’t
1:09:10 feel
1:09:10 that
1:09:10 way
1:09:11 I
1:09:11 feel
1:09:11 like
1:09:12 if
1:09:12 you
1:09:12 ever
1:09:12 get
1:09:13 flustered
1:09:13 it’s
1:09:14 probably
1:09:14 because
1:09:15 you’re
1:09:15 suddenly
1:09:15 getting
1:09:16 taken
1:09:16 in
1:09:16 by
1:09:17 Gaza
1:09:17 which
1:09:17 is
1:09:18 something
1:09:18 you’re
1:09:18 emotional
1:09:19 about
1:09:19 but
1:09:19 you
1:09:19 don’t
1:09:19 have
1:09:19 a lot
1:09:20 of
1:09:20 expertise
1:09:20 on
1:09:21 and
1:09:22 I
1:09:22 just
1:09:23 don’t
1:09:23 spend
1:09:23 a lot
1:09:23 of
1:09:24 time
1:09:25 I
1:09:25 don’t
1:09:25 get
1:09:25 very
1:09:25 emotional
1:09:26 about
1:09:26 stuff
1:09:26 I
1:09:26 don’t
1:09:26 know
1:09:27 stuff
1:09:27 about
1:09:28 because
1:09:28 I
1:09:48 good
1:09:48 to
1:09:48 see
1:09:48 it
1:09:49 is
1:09:49 the
1:09:50 president
1:09:50 and
1:09:50 founder
1:09:50 of
1:09:51 Eurasia
1:09:51 Group
1:09:51 the
1:09:51 world’s
1:09:51 leading
1:09:52 political
1:09:52 risk
1:09:53 research
1:09:53 and
1:09:53 consulting
1:09:53 firm
1:09:54 and
1:09:54 GZero
1:09:55 Media
1:09:56 a company
1:09:56 dedicated
1:09:57 to providing
1:09:57 intelligent
1:09:58 and engaging
1:09:58 coverage
1:09:58 of
1:09:59 international
1:10:00 affairs
1:10:01 Ian
1:10:01 always
1:10:02 appreciate
1:10:03 your
1:10:03 time
1:10:03 and
1:10:04 go
1:10:04 United
1:10:05 team
1:10:05 United
1:10:06 Nations
1:10:07 UN
1:10:08 there
1:10:08 we go
1:10:08 we get
1:10:09 together
1:10:09 and have
1:10:10 discourse
1:10:10 Ian
1:10:11 very much
1:10:11 appreciate
1:10:12 your time
1:10:12 glad you’re
1:10:12 well
1:10:12 thanks
1:10:35 Algebra
1:10:35 of
1:10:36 happiness
1:10:37 who
1:10:37 do
1:10:37 you
1:10:38 owe
1:10:39 there’s
1:10:39 a great
1:10:39 scene
1:10:40 in
1:10:41 true
1:10:41 detective
1:10:42 season
1:10:42 one
1:10:43 when
1:10:43 Matthew
1:10:43 McConaughey
1:10:44 is trying
1:10:44 to get
1:10:45 Woody
1:10:45 Harrelson
1:10:46 to come
1:10:46 look
1:10:47 at
1:10:48 some
1:10:48 data
1:10:49 he’s
1:10:49 been
1:10:49 collecting
1:10:49 on an
1:10:50 investigation
1:10:50 and
1:10:50 Woody
1:10:51 Harrelson
1:10:51 wants
1:10:51 nothing
1:10:52 to do
1:10:52 with
1:10:52 this
1:10:52 guy
1:10:54 and
1:10:55 Matthew
1:10:55 McConaughey
1:10:57 reminds him
1:10:58 that he
1:10:59 has a
1:10:59 debt
1:11:00 that you
1:11:00 owe
1:11:00 me
1:11:02 and if
1:11:02 you’ve
1:11:02 seen
1:11:02 the
1:11:03 series
1:11:03 you
1:11:03 know
1:11:03 why
1:11:04 and
1:11:05 I
1:11:05 think
1:11:05 it’s
1:11:05 actually
1:11:06 really
1:11:06 constructive
1:11:07 to think
1:11:08 who do
1:11:08 you owe
1:11:09 or what
1:11:09 do you owe
1:11:10 and that
1:11:11 is to think
1:11:11 about all
1:11:12 the wonderful
1:11:12 things in
1:11:13 your life
1:11:15 if you’ve
1:11:15 registered
1:11:15 some
1:11:16 prosperity
1:11:16 have a
1:11:16 good
1:11:17 family
1:11:18 try and
1:11:18 reverse
1:11:19 engineer
1:11:19 as far
1:11:20 back as
1:11:20 you can
1:11:21 to what
1:11:21 are the
1:11:22 things
1:11:23 that led
1:11:23 to your
1:11:23 success
1:11:24 that aren’t
1:11:24 your fault
1:11:25 yeah it’s
1:11:25 it’s easy
1:11:26 to credit
1:11:26 your
1:11:26 grit
1:11:26 and your
1:11:27 character
1:11:27 and I’m
1:11:28 a baller
1:11:28 and I work
1:11:29 so hard
1:11:30 but really
1:11:30 look at the
1:11:31 underpinnings
1:11:31 of your
1:11:31 success
1:11:32 or what
1:11:32 was the
1:11:33 infrastructure
1:11:34 so I went
1:11:34 through this
1:11:34 process
1:11:35 and why
1:11:36 do you
1:11:36 do this
1:11:37 such that
1:11:37 you can
1:11:38 focus on
1:11:39 what you’re
1:11:39 passionate
1:11:39 about
1:11:40 maintaining
1:11:41 what you’re
1:11:41 passionate
1:11:42 about maybe
1:11:43 participating
1:11:43 in
1:11:44 devoting
1:11:44 some of
1:11:44 your time
1:11:45 your treasure
1:11:45 and your
1:11:45 talent
1:11:46 to ensuring
1:11:46 that
1:11:47 those
1:11:47 wonderful
1:11:48 things
1:11:48 that provide
1:11:48 an opportunity
1:11:49 for you
1:11:49 continue
1:11:50 to be
1:11:50 present
1:11:52 when I went
1:11:52 through the
1:11:52 process
1:11:52 I went
1:11:53 all the way
1:11:53 back to
1:11:54 assisted lunch
1:11:55 which I got
1:11:55 in elementary
1:11:56 school
1:11:58 a 74%
1:11:59 admissions rate
1:11:59 at UCLA
1:12:00 I didn’t get
1:12:01 in the first
1:12:01 time I was
1:12:01 one of the
1:12:02 26 that didn’t
1:12:02 get in
1:12:03 Pell grants
1:12:03 was the only
1:12:04 reason I could
1:12:04 stay at UCLA
1:12:05 I didn’t have
1:12:05 any money
1:12:07 family planning
1:12:09 my mom got
1:12:10 pregnant when I
1:12:10 was 17
1:12:11 and had we
1:12:12 lived in a
1:12:12 red state
1:12:13 we weren’t
1:12:13 very sophisticated
1:12:14 I imagine
1:12:15 she would have
1:12:15 been forced
1:12:16 to carry the
1:12:16 baby to term
1:12:17 at least
1:12:17 possibly
1:12:17 and if my
1:12:18 mom had
1:12:18 had had
1:12:19 a baby
1:12:20 when I was
1:12:20 a senior
1:12:20 in high
1:12:21 school
1:12:21 and me
1:12:22 being the
1:12:22 only
1:12:24 man of
1:12:24 the house
1:12:24 the only
1:12:25 person in
1:12:25 the house
1:12:26 I doubt
1:12:26 I would have
1:12:26 been able
1:12:26 to go to
1:12:27 college
1:12:28 so family
1:12:28 planning
1:12:29 has played
1:12:30 or bodily
1:12:30 autonomy
1:12:31 for women
1:12:31 has played
1:12:32 a huge
1:12:32 role
1:12:33 in my
1:12:33 life
1:12:34 state
1:12:34 sponsored
1:12:35 education
1:12:35 see above
1:12:36 UCLA
1:12:36 and then
1:12:37 coming of
1:12:37 age
1:12:38 during the
1:12:39 internet
1:12:41 middle class
1:12:41 households
1:12:42 financed
1:12:42 this post
1:12:43 apocalyptic
1:12:43 communications
1:12:44 background
1:12:44 called
1:12:45 DARPA
1:12:46 or whatever
1:12:46 or DARPA
1:12:47 was the
1:12:47 agency
1:12:48 that
1:12:48 funded
1:12:48 it
1:12:49 funded
1:12:49 the
1:12:49 internet
1:12:50 and I
1:12:51 made
1:12:51 most of
1:12:51 my
1:12:52 wealth
1:12:53 in
1:12:53 businesses
1:12:54 related
1:12:54 to the
1:12:54 internet
1:12:55 so
1:12:56 and also
1:12:57 a risk
1:12:57 aggressive
1:12:58 culture
1:12:59 you know
1:13:00 public education
1:13:01 teaching at
1:13:01 NYU
1:13:02 or
1:13:03 public
1:13:03 funding
1:13:04 of education
1:13:05 including
1:13:05 private
1:13:06 institutions
1:13:07 you know
1:13:07 all of
1:13:08 these things
1:13:08 that have
1:13:09 led
1:13:09 helped me
1:13:10 have a
1:13:10 remarkable
1:13:10 life
1:13:11 now
1:13:11 that’s
1:13:11 the chip
1:13:12 the salsa
1:13:12 is I’m a
1:13:13 fucking
1:13:13 monster
1:13:14 I’m not
1:13:14 I am not
1:13:15 humble
1:13:15 I’m
1:13:16 hardworking
1:13:16 and talented
1:13:17 but without
1:13:18 these things
1:13:19 it just
1:13:19 my hard work
1:13:20 and talent
1:13:20 would have
1:13:21 amounted to
1:13:21 a lot less
1:13:21 there are
1:13:22 people
1:13:23 as or more
1:13:23 talented
1:13:24 than me
1:13:25 in Iran
1:13:26 Angola
1:13:28 and Thailand
1:13:29 that don’t
1:13:29 recognize nearly
1:13:31 the success
1:13:32 or prosperity
1:13:32 that I’ve been
1:13:33 able to recognize
1:13:34 so you write
1:13:34 all these things
1:13:35 down
1:13:35 and then it
1:13:36 feels good
1:13:36 to be very
1:13:37 supportive
1:13:37 of them
1:13:39 to be vocal
1:13:39 about them
1:13:40 maybe to give
1:13:40 a little bit
1:13:40 of money
1:13:41 to them
1:13:41 to vote
1:13:42 for people
1:13:42 who continue
1:13:43 to support
1:13:44 these things
1:13:45 recognizing that
1:13:46 these are the
1:13:47 building blocks
1:13:47 right
1:13:48 in sum
1:13:50 a lot of your
1:13:50 success isn’t
1:13:51 your fault
1:13:51 and it feels
1:13:52 good to try
1:13:52 and figure out
1:13:53 what are the
1:13:54 things
1:13:55 that really
1:13:55 kind of
1:13:56 what was the
1:13:56 you know
1:13:57 the wind
1:13:57 beneath your
1:13:58 wings
1:13:59 so to speak
1:13:59 because it
1:14:00 helps inform
1:14:01 for me
1:14:01 my political
1:14:02 viewpoint
1:14:03 what I
1:14:03 want to be
1:14:04 supportive of
1:14:05 and where I
1:14:05 want to give
1:14:06 back
1:14:06 right
1:14:07 what things
1:14:08 led to your
1:14:09 success
1:14:11 and kind
1:14:12 of indicate
1:14:12 well
1:14:13 if
1:14:14 those are the
1:14:14 things
1:14:15 where success
1:14:16 is not my
1:14:16 fault
1:14:24 this episode
1:14:24 was produced
1:14:24 by Jennifer
1:14:25 Sanchez
1:14:26 our assistant
1:14:26 producer is
1:14:27 Laura Janair
1:14:28 Drew Burrows
1:14:28 is our technical
1:14:29 director
1:14:29 thank you for
1:14:29 listening to
1:14:30 the PropG
1:14:30 pod from
1:14:31 PropG Media