AI transcript
0:00:03 Support for property comes from better help.
0:00:05 Social media has made it really easy to peer
0:00:06 into other people’s lives,
0:00:08 but when you start comparing yourself, that’s a trap.
0:00:10 Therapy can help you zero in on what you want
0:00:12 instead of what others have
0:00:14 so you can start living your best life.
0:00:16 Better Help Online Therapy offers a safe place
0:00:18 to figure out what’s really important to you.
0:00:21 It’s entirely online and flexible enough
0:00:22 to fit into any schedule.
0:00:23 You can fill out a brief questionnaire
0:00:26 to get matched with a licensed therapist fast.
0:00:29 Stop comparing and start focusing with better help
0:00:32 visit betterhelp.com/profg today
0:00:34 to get 10% off your first month.
0:00:38 That’s better help H-E-L-P.com/profg.
0:00:41 – Looking to buy or sell a used vehicle?
0:00:43 Forget the selection and protection
0:00:44 of BCAA Auto Marketplace.
0:00:46 Try some random guy off the internet.
0:00:49 – Some random guy!
0:00:52 – Yes, zero security, zero peace of mind.
0:00:57 – Some random guy, the risk is part of the ride.
0:01:01 BCAA Auto Marketplace helps you buy and sell vehicles
0:01:03 just like we help you every day.
0:01:06 Visit BCAA.com/marketplace and avoid.
0:01:09 – Some random guy!
0:01:15 – I’m Scott Galloway and this is No Mercy, No Malice.
0:01:17 The space race is over.
0:01:21 However, now we’re fighting over the spoils of space.
0:01:22 Instead of bragging rights,
0:01:26 the stakes now are profits and power.
0:01:29 The financial frontier, as read by George Hahn.
0:01:37 – When Dr. Doug Ross, George Clooney,
0:01:39 changes the direction of our world,
0:01:41 it’s a sign I should return to my knitting
0:01:42 and discuss business.
0:01:44 I don’t know if it’s age or common sense,
0:01:45 but it feels as if this world
0:01:48 is getting increasingly unstable.
0:01:51 So let’s take a break and venture to space.
0:01:55 We won the space race.
0:01:59 Our Nazi scientists were smarter than their Nazi scientists.
0:02:02 Getting to the moon first and planting our flag
0:02:07 was a cosmic branding event, literally and figuratively.
0:02:11 It wasn’t cheap, between 1960 and 1973,
0:02:14 NASA spent more than half of its budget,
0:02:19 about $28 billion, $280 billion adjusted for inflation
0:02:21 on the project.
0:02:24 Spending on NASA at the peak of the space race
0:02:28 accounted for more than 4% of the total US budget.
0:02:32 The worst branding events for space
0:02:34 were the Challenger disaster.
0:02:36 – You saw it just a few moments ago,
0:02:39 about 45 seconds after liftoff,
0:02:42 a huge fireball in the sky.
0:02:44 – We have a report from the flight dynamics officer
0:02:46 that the vehicle has exploded.
0:02:47 – And Virgin Galactic.
0:02:50 – Today, the project was dealt a serious setback.
0:02:54 When its spaceship too exploded during a test flight,
0:02:56 over California’s Mojave Desert.
0:03:00 – Space tourism hasn’t yet transported consumers to space,
0:03:02 but it did shuttle retail investors’ capital
0:03:05 to Richard Branson’s cruises and airline,
0:03:07 and Chamath Palahapitiya’s bank account.
0:03:11 Today, many believe there’s a space race
0:03:13 between the US and China.
0:03:16 While our return trip to the moon has been delayed,
0:03:21 China successfully retrieved soil from its far side.
0:03:23 And this new space race has given way
0:03:25 to space spoils.
0:03:27 Instead of bragging rights,
0:03:29 the stakes are profits and power
0:03:32 here on the moon’s billion year sibling, Earth.
0:03:36 Businesses are either supply constrained,
0:03:40 like rare Earth minerals or a 1945 Chateau Mutant,
0:03:44 or demand constrained, pretty much everything else.
0:03:50 Space tourism is both, which is why it isn’t a business.
0:03:52 Jeff Bezos is not my astronaut,
0:03:57 and Virgin Galactic is, see above, stupid.
0:03:59 As stupid as space tourism is,
0:04:02 the space business is rational.
0:04:07 Valued at $630 billion in 2023,
0:04:09 the space economy is projected
0:04:13 to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035.
0:04:17 But describing space as a business sector
0:04:20 is similar to using Europe as a descriptor.
0:04:23 There’s a big difference between Ireland and Greece.
0:04:26 Satellites are, at this point,
0:04:29 ground zero of the space economy.
0:04:31 Your television signal, nearly everything on your phone,
0:04:36 and anything that relies on GPS all depend on satellites.
0:04:39 Just as machinery and IP were the source materials
0:04:41 for the modern economy on Earth,
0:04:44 satellites will likely be the backbone
0:04:46 of the space economy.
0:04:50 What’s driving the growth in satellites?
0:04:52 One company, Starlink.
0:04:57 The number of active satellites increases weekly,
0:05:00 so it’s difficult to get up to the minute data.
0:05:02 At the end of 2022,
0:05:04 the Union of Concerned Scientists
0:05:09 was tracking 6,718 operational satellites.
0:05:14 Roughly half, 3,394 belonged to the SpaceX subsidiary.
0:05:19 And more are on the way.
0:05:22 The FCC approved SpaceX’s bid
0:05:27 to deploy up to 7,500 satellites for now.
0:05:31 Starlink has plans to launch 30,000 more.
0:05:34 The idea of one man controlling
0:05:38 the world’s high-speed internet access is unsettling.
0:05:40 Hawaiian Airlines and T-Mobile
0:05:42 have already partnered with Starlink.
0:05:44 The Texas firm is on the verge
0:05:48 of becoming this generation’s ultimate ingredient brand,
0:05:51 like Intel, Nutrisweet, or NVIDIA.
0:05:56 The addressable market is cosmic in size.
0:05:58 Currently, Starlink beans internet access
0:06:02 to 2.7 million subscribers in 75 countries.
0:06:06 It has kits for resonances, boats, and RVs.
0:06:11 Monthly plans range from $120 to $5,000.
0:06:16 The basic hardware costs between $499 and $2,500.
0:06:20 There are hundreds of millions of people on earth
0:06:22 who can afford Starlink,
0:06:24 and many are already paying for internet service
0:06:27 that’s tied to their home.
0:06:31 Starlink has a moat the width of Saturn’s rings,
0:06:35 see above 51% of satellites.
0:06:40 Its network already outperforms Huznet and Viasat.
0:06:43 The reviews are getting better as the network scales.
0:06:46 The 20th century saw the manufacturing age
0:06:50 seed ground to the brand and service era.
0:06:52 This millennium, thus far,
0:06:56 could best be described as the 10X era,
0:06:59 where products that leverage digital technologies
0:07:02 are rendering current offerings defunct.
0:07:06 Profits and their potential attract more competitors
0:07:10 to the water’s edge to try to cross the river.
0:07:14 The water level of Starlink’s moat, however, is rising,
0:07:17 and there appear to be crocodiles too,
0:07:18 evidenced by Amazon delaying the launch
0:07:20 of Kuiper to next year.
0:07:26 One pillar of the 10X economy is verticalization,
0:07:29 lowering costs, and SpaceX’s crane kick
0:07:32 is mundane yet dramatic.
0:07:36 In 2010, the company drove down launch costs
0:07:41 with its own Falcon 9 to $2,500 per kilogram,
0:07:46 and it went further still with the Falcon Heavy in 2018
0:07:49 to $1,500 per kilogram.
0:07:53 The requisite expenditure is 30 times lower,
0:07:58 adjusted for inflation, than NASA’s Space Shuttle in 1981,
0:08:02 and 11 times less than the average launch costs
0:08:04 from 1970 to 2010.
0:08:07 (gentle music)
0:08:11 In his 27-year career, Nolan Ryan
0:08:14 threw approximately 250,000 pitches
0:08:17 in exchange for $25 million,
0:08:21 costing his various team owners $100 a pitch.
0:08:26 If the Los Angeles Dodgers started Shohei Otani at Pitcher,
0:08:31 they’d pay him $23,000 per pitch.
0:08:35 The Ryan Express was the SpaceX of his era,
0:08:39 propelling things into the atmosphere for less.
0:08:43 Fun fact, I named my youngest son after the fastballer.
0:08:48 Last year, the world launched seven objects per day
0:08:53 into space, with SpaceX accounting for a staggering 73%
0:08:56 of the global total.
0:08:59 Note, the most valuable company in the world, NVIDIA,
0:09:03 has an 80% share of AI GPUs.
0:09:07 Does SpaceX have a 73% share of space?
0:09:10 The remaining 27% of launches are a mix
0:09:13 of non-SpaceX telecommunications satellites,
0:09:17 defense, navigation, and scientific research satellites,
0:09:20 as well as crafts that monitor the weather,
0:09:23 observe the oceans, and track wildfires.
0:09:26 Not everything in this miscellaneous category is a business,
0:09:31 but hauling stuff into space is.
0:09:35 There’s real competition for reusable rockets.
0:09:37 The European consortium Arianespace
0:09:40 is testing its Arian6 rocket
0:09:43 to reduce its reliance on SpaceX.
0:09:46 Blue Origin, SpaceX, and ULA,
0:09:49 a joint venture between Lockheed Martin and Boeing,
0:09:52 each garnered a piece of a Pentagon contract
0:09:55 worth $5.6 billion.
0:09:58 The startup Relativity is developing a way
0:10:02 to use 3D printing to speed manufacturing.
0:10:05 Stoke, another startup focused on building clean,
0:10:07 fueled, rapidly reusable rockets,
0:10:11 raised $100 million at the end of last year.
0:10:14 Then there’s Rocket Lab’s Electron Rocket,
0:10:17 which recently celebrated its 50th launch
0:10:20 after seven years and one month in service,
0:10:23 a record for a commercial launch vehicle.
0:10:26 There’s also a related business
0:10:30 in de-orbiting old satellites and space stations.
0:10:35 NASA just awarded SpaceX an $843 million contract
0:10:40 to safely de-orbit the International Space Station in 2030.
0:10:43 There may even be a business in removing
0:10:47 the 170 million pieces of space junk.
0:10:48 That number will only grow
0:10:51 as we continue to commercialize space.
0:10:55 The FTC has already issued its first fine for space junk.
0:11:00 By treaty, nobody owns space,
0:11:03 and the moon belongs to everyone.
0:11:04 That’s a problem.
0:11:09 Geopolitical competition, a growing private space economy,
0:11:11 and the relative absence of rules
0:11:16 make space the new Wild West, North, East, and South.
0:11:20 Low Earth orbit, where Starlink is scaling its network,
0:11:23 is congested and getting worse.
0:11:26 Even a small object can do a lot of damage
0:11:28 if it hits a satellite or space station.
0:11:31 We’ve already had some near misses.
0:11:35 A SpaceX satellite almost hit a manned Chinese space station.
0:11:39 A Russian anti-satellite test sent debris hurtling
0:11:41 toward the International Space Station,
0:11:43 forcing astronauts on board to take shelter.
0:11:47 This is the plot line of the movie Gravity,
0:11:48 which starred Sandra Bullock
0:11:50 and President Slayer George Clooney.
0:11:55 What happens when someone takes out a satellite on purpose
0:11:58 or an adversary puts nukes in orbit?
0:12:01 When I was a kid, this happened in the James Bond movie
0:12:03 You Only Live Twice.
0:12:05 The axiom of all sci-fi
0:12:08 eventually becoming reality holds.
0:12:10 We now have a space force,
0:12:11 though it’s not a budgetary priority
0:12:13 for the Defense Department.
0:12:19 The fight over space isn’t limited to geopolitics.
0:12:21 It’s also about commerce.
0:12:25 As business booms and resources are unlocked in new regions,
0:12:27 private companies will enter the fight.
0:12:28 It’s happened before.
0:12:31 We call it colonialism.
0:12:34 At its height, the British East India Company
0:12:39 had its own 250,000 man army and the right to wage war.
0:12:43 The corporation ruled India.
0:12:46 Its competitor, the Dutch East India Company,
0:12:49 had a charter that empowered it to raise armies,
0:12:51 build forts, and make treaties.
0:12:54 Question.
0:12:58 If someone threatens a Starlink satellite,
0:13:02 does Elon Musk call the US government to fight his battles?
0:13:04 Or does he arm his satellites with tiny projectiles
0:13:06 that can neutralize the threat?
0:13:09 Follow up.
0:13:12 If two companies claim the same spot on the moon,
0:13:14 do they call lawyers?
0:13:16 Or does someone go all Nolan Ryan
0:13:19 and throw a moon rocket at a fragile piece of equipment
0:13:22 and claim the resources for their shareholders?
0:13:24 My prediction?
0:13:26 The next battlefield for proxy wars
0:13:31 between the West and its adversaries will be in space.
0:13:32 The armies fighting this war
0:13:36 will be well-paid mercenaries disguised as corporations.
0:13:41 Two asteroids sped by Earth recently,
0:13:44 the smaller one passed between us and the moon
0:13:48 at a distance of about 180,200 miles.
0:13:51 The moon is 238,900 miles away.
0:13:56 Practically a near miss for space travel.
0:14:00 All we could do was watch the rocks zoom by,
0:14:03 but as the cost of space hauling decreases,
0:14:05 new business categories will emerge.
0:14:08 One possible commercial opportunity
0:14:12 is mining asteroids and the moon.
0:14:13 This is still a ways off,
0:14:16 but the spoils could be galactic.
0:14:20 The industry brings new meaning to the term wildcatting.
0:14:22 It would be highly speculative
0:14:25 and driven by the prospect of abundant booty.
0:14:29 If you can reach it, mine it and bring it back.
0:14:32 Last year, NASA launched a probe to an asteroid
0:14:37 that supposedly has a valuation of 10 quintillion dollars.
0:14:42 Note, that makes no sense
0:14:45 as any mineable material of that quantity or value
0:14:49 would result in a crash in value, but I digress.
0:14:54 If asteroid mining is possible, a big if.
0:14:58 It could leverage cheaper space hauling costs
0:15:01 to meet demand on Earth for the critical metals,
0:15:05 cobalt, iron, nickel, platinum and other goodies,
0:15:08 used in electronics, electric car batteries
0:15:10 and solar and wind power.
0:15:15 Creating energy off planet is another compelling idea.
0:15:19 Isaac Asimov first wrote about space solar
0:15:23 in his 1941 short story, Reason.
0:15:25 But a recent NASA study concluded
0:15:29 that it is feasible to generate solar energy in space
0:15:32 and transport it to Earth.
0:15:35 Last year, Caltech launched a prototype
0:15:37 that demonstrated the ability
0:15:40 to wirelessly transmit power in space,
0:15:43 beaming a tiny amount of detectable power to Earth.
0:15:48 This year, UK based startup Space Solar
0:15:52 tested a way to collect solar 24/7.
0:15:56 On Earth, solar collection is limited to daylight hours.
0:16:00 Finally, there’s the idea of relocating manufacturing
0:16:04 and the pollution that comes with it to space.
0:16:07 Jeff Bezos told CBS This Morning.
0:16:10 – This sounds fantastical, what I’m about to tell you,
0:16:11 but it will happen.
0:16:15 – He’s right, it sounds fantastical.
0:16:17 But if the choice is between shifting manufacturing
0:16:21 to space or colonizing Mars,
0:16:24 let’s hear the pitch for space factories.
0:16:27 At the height of the space race,
0:16:30 NASA scientists realized that pens couldn’t function
0:16:32 in space.
0:16:35 To boldly write where no man had written before,
0:16:37 they spent millions developing implements
0:16:39 that worked in zero gravity.
0:16:44 Soviet scientists had a simpler, cheaper solution.
0:16:45 Pencils.
0:16:48 Actually, the space pen story is a myth.
0:16:51 Pencils aren’t great in space, they’re flammable,
0:16:54 the tips break off and drift away in microgravity,
0:16:57 risking harm to the equipment and astronauts.
0:17:02 The real story, in 1965, the Fisher Space Pen Company
0:17:06 patented a pen that could write upside down
0:17:11 in extreme heat and cold and even underwater.
0:17:15 They sold pens to the US and Soviet space programs.
0:17:18 Fisher is still selling pens to this day,
0:17:19 about a million per year,
0:17:23 ranging from $5 to $150 a pen.
0:17:27 Fisher Space Pen found a business in the stars
0:17:29 by serving a market on Earth.
0:17:33 Anyone who wants to reap the spoils of space
0:17:35 will have to do the same thing.
0:17:38 Space is the collision of the business trends
0:17:40 that have defined the last century,
0:17:45 manufacturing, branding, 10X and unexpected externalities.
0:17:50 On a recent flight from Miami to New York,
0:17:52 I was able to try Starlink.
0:17:55 My phone rang was my son FaceTiming me.
0:18:00 The sound and resolution were flawless.
0:18:02 During the call, our pilot announced
0:18:04 that peering out of the left side of the plane,
0:18:07 you could see a SpaceX launch.
0:18:09 It was one of those tech aha moments,
0:18:12 like the first time you called someone from a car,
0:18:13 bought something from your phone,
0:18:16 took a picture of a check to deposit it.
0:18:19 It was also a moment to reflect on the teen depression,
0:18:24 propaganda from bad actors and coarsening of our discourse
0:18:27 that technology has washed up on our shores.
0:18:32 It feels less than bold to posit that
0:18:34 if we weren’t more thoughtful about the externalities
0:18:37 of the commercial development of space,
0:18:42 it won’t be the final frontier, but our last.
0:18:47 – Life is so rich.
0:18:50 (gentle music)
0:18:53 (gentle music)
0:18:56 (gentle music)
0:18:58 you
0:00:05 Social media has made it really easy to peer
0:00:06 into other people’s lives,
0:00:08 but when you start comparing yourself, that’s a trap.
0:00:10 Therapy can help you zero in on what you want
0:00:12 instead of what others have
0:00:14 so you can start living your best life.
0:00:16 Better Help Online Therapy offers a safe place
0:00:18 to figure out what’s really important to you.
0:00:21 It’s entirely online and flexible enough
0:00:22 to fit into any schedule.
0:00:23 You can fill out a brief questionnaire
0:00:26 to get matched with a licensed therapist fast.
0:00:29 Stop comparing and start focusing with better help
0:00:32 visit betterhelp.com/profg today
0:00:34 to get 10% off your first month.
0:00:38 That’s better help H-E-L-P.com/profg.
0:00:41 – Looking to buy or sell a used vehicle?
0:00:43 Forget the selection and protection
0:00:44 of BCAA Auto Marketplace.
0:00:46 Try some random guy off the internet.
0:00:49 – Some random guy!
0:00:52 – Yes, zero security, zero peace of mind.
0:00:57 – Some random guy, the risk is part of the ride.
0:01:01 BCAA Auto Marketplace helps you buy and sell vehicles
0:01:03 just like we help you every day.
0:01:06 Visit BCAA.com/marketplace and avoid.
0:01:09 – Some random guy!
0:01:15 – I’m Scott Galloway and this is No Mercy, No Malice.
0:01:17 The space race is over.
0:01:21 However, now we’re fighting over the spoils of space.
0:01:22 Instead of bragging rights,
0:01:26 the stakes now are profits and power.
0:01:29 The financial frontier, as read by George Hahn.
0:01:37 – When Dr. Doug Ross, George Clooney,
0:01:39 changes the direction of our world,
0:01:41 it’s a sign I should return to my knitting
0:01:42 and discuss business.
0:01:44 I don’t know if it’s age or common sense,
0:01:45 but it feels as if this world
0:01:48 is getting increasingly unstable.
0:01:51 So let’s take a break and venture to space.
0:01:55 We won the space race.
0:01:59 Our Nazi scientists were smarter than their Nazi scientists.
0:02:02 Getting to the moon first and planting our flag
0:02:07 was a cosmic branding event, literally and figuratively.
0:02:11 It wasn’t cheap, between 1960 and 1973,
0:02:14 NASA spent more than half of its budget,
0:02:19 about $28 billion, $280 billion adjusted for inflation
0:02:21 on the project.
0:02:24 Spending on NASA at the peak of the space race
0:02:28 accounted for more than 4% of the total US budget.
0:02:32 The worst branding events for space
0:02:34 were the Challenger disaster.
0:02:36 – You saw it just a few moments ago,
0:02:39 about 45 seconds after liftoff,
0:02:42 a huge fireball in the sky.
0:02:44 – We have a report from the flight dynamics officer
0:02:46 that the vehicle has exploded.
0:02:47 – And Virgin Galactic.
0:02:50 – Today, the project was dealt a serious setback.
0:02:54 When its spaceship too exploded during a test flight,
0:02:56 over California’s Mojave Desert.
0:03:00 – Space tourism hasn’t yet transported consumers to space,
0:03:02 but it did shuttle retail investors’ capital
0:03:05 to Richard Branson’s cruises and airline,
0:03:07 and Chamath Palahapitiya’s bank account.
0:03:11 Today, many believe there’s a space race
0:03:13 between the US and China.
0:03:16 While our return trip to the moon has been delayed,
0:03:21 China successfully retrieved soil from its far side.
0:03:23 And this new space race has given way
0:03:25 to space spoils.
0:03:27 Instead of bragging rights,
0:03:29 the stakes are profits and power
0:03:32 here on the moon’s billion year sibling, Earth.
0:03:36 Businesses are either supply constrained,
0:03:40 like rare Earth minerals or a 1945 Chateau Mutant,
0:03:44 or demand constrained, pretty much everything else.
0:03:50 Space tourism is both, which is why it isn’t a business.
0:03:52 Jeff Bezos is not my astronaut,
0:03:57 and Virgin Galactic is, see above, stupid.
0:03:59 As stupid as space tourism is,
0:04:02 the space business is rational.
0:04:07 Valued at $630 billion in 2023,
0:04:09 the space economy is projected
0:04:13 to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035.
0:04:17 But describing space as a business sector
0:04:20 is similar to using Europe as a descriptor.
0:04:23 There’s a big difference between Ireland and Greece.
0:04:26 Satellites are, at this point,
0:04:29 ground zero of the space economy.
0:04:31 Your television signal, nearly everything on your phone,
0:04:36 and anything that relies on GPS all depend on satellites.
0:04:39 Just as machinery and IP were the source materials
0:04:41 for the modern economy on Earth,
0:04:44 satellites will likely be the backbone
0:04:46 of the space economy.
0:04:50 What’s driving the growth in satellites?
0:04:52 One company, Starlink.
0:04:57 The number of active satellites increases weekly,
0:05:00 so it’s difficult to get up to the minute data.
0:05:02 At the end of 2022,
0:05:04 the Union of Concerned Scientists
0:05:09 was tracking 6,718 operational satellites.
0:05:14 Roughly half, 3,394 belonged to the SpaceX subsidiary.
0:05:19 And more are on the way.
0:05:22 The FCC approved SpaceX’s bid
0:05:27 to deploy up to 7,500 satellites for now.
0:05:31 Starlink has plans to launch 30,000 more.
0:05:34 The idea of one man controlling
0:05:38 the world’s high-speed internet access is unsettling.
0:05:40 Hawaiian Airlines and T-Mobile
0:05:42 have already partnered with Starlink.
0:05:44 The Texas firm is on the verge
0:05:48 of becoming this generation’s ultimate ingredient brand,
0:05:51 like Intel, Nutrisweet, or NVIDIA.
0:05:56 The addressable market is cosmic in size.
0:05:58 Currently, Starlink beans internet access
0:06:02 to 2.7 million subscribers in 75 countries.
0:06:06 It has kits for resonances, boats, and RVs.
0:06:11 Monthly plans range from $120 to $5,000.
0:06:16 The basic hardware costs between $499 and $2,500.
0:06:20 There are hundreds of millions of people on earth
0:06:22 who can afford Starlink,
0:06:24 and many are already paying for internet service
0:06:27 that’s tied to their home.
0:06:31 Starlink has a moat the width of Saturn’s rings,
0:06:35 see above 51% of satellites.
0:06:40 Its network already outperforms Huznet and Viasat.
0:06:43 The reviews are getting better as the network scales.
0:06:46 The 20th century saw the manufacturing age
0:06:50 seed ground to the brand and service era.
0:06:52 This millennium, thus far,
0:06:56 could best be described as the 10X era,
0:06:59 where products that leverage digital technologies
0:07:02 are rendering current offerings defunct.
0:07:06 Profits and their potential attract more competitors
0:07:10 to the water’s edge to try to cross the river.
0:07:14 The water level of Starlink’s moat, however, is rising,
0:07:17 and there appear to be crocodiles too,
0:07:18 evidenced by Amazon delaying the launch
0:07:20 of Kuiper to next year.
0:07:26 One pillar of the 10X economy is verticalization,
0:07:29 lowering costs, and SpaceX’s crane kick
0:07:32 is mundane yet dramatic.
0:07:36 In 2010, the company drove down launch costs
0:07:41 with its own Falcon 9 to $2,500 per kilogram,
0:07:46 and it went further still with the Falcon Heavy in 2018
0:07:49 to $1,500 per kilogram.
0:07:53 The requisite expenditure is 30 times lower,
0:07:58 adjusted for inflation, than NASA’s Space Shuttle in 1981,
0:08:02 and 11 times less than the average launch costs
0:08:04 from 1970 to 2010.
0:08:07 (gentle music)
0:08:11 In his 27-year career, Nolan Ryan
0:08:14 threw approximately 250,000 pitches
0:08:17 in exchange for $25 million,
0:08:21 costing his various team owners $100 a pitch.
0:08:26 If the Los Angeles Dodgers started Shohei Otani at Pitcher,
0:08:31 they’d pay him $23,000 per pitch.
0:08:35 The Ryan Express was the SpaceX of his era,
0:08:39 propelling things into the atmosphere for less.
0:08:43 Fun fact, I named my youngest son after the fastballer.
0:08:48 Last year, the world launched seven objects per day
0:08:53 into space, with SpaceX accounting for a staggering 73%
0:08:56 of the global total.
0:08:59 Note, the most valuable company in the world, NVIDIA,
0:09:03 has an 80% share of AI GPUs.
0:09:07 Does SpaceX have a 73% share of space?
0:09:10 The remaining 27% of launches are a mix
0:09:13 of non-SpaceX telecommunications satellites,
0:09:17 defense, navigation, and scientific research satellites,
0:09:20 as well as crafts that monitor the weather,
0:09:23 observe the oceans, and track wildfires.
0:09:26 Not everything in this miscellaneous category is a business,
0:09:31 but hauling stuff into space is.
0:09:35 There’s real competition for reusable rockets.
0:09:37 The European consortium Arianespace
0:09:40 is testing its Arian6 rocket
0:09:43 to reduce its reliance on SpaceX.
0:09:46 Blue Origin, SpaceX, and ULA,
0:09:49 a joint venture between Lockheed Martin and Boeing,
0:09:52 each garnered a piece of a Pentagon contract
0:09:55 worth $5.6 billion.
0:09:58 The startup Relativity is developing a way
0:10:02 to use 3D printing to speed manufacturing.
0:10:05 Stoke, another startup focused on building clean,
0:10:07 fueled, rapidly reusable rockets,
0:10:11 raised $100 million at the end of last year.
0:10:14 Then there’s Rocket Lab’s Electron Rocket,
0:10:17 which recently celebrated its 50th launch
0:10:20 after seven years and one month in service,
0:10:23 a record for a commercial launch vehicle.
0:10:26 There’s also a related business
0:10:30 in de-orbiting old satellites and space stations.
0:10:35 NASA just awarded SpaceX an $843 million contract
0:10:40 to safely de-orbit the International Space Station in 2030.
0:10:43 There may even be a business in removing
0:10:47 the 170 million pieces of space junk.
0:10:48 That number will only grow
0:10:51 as we continue to commercialize space.
0:10:55 The FTC has already issued its first fine for space junk.
0:11:00 By treaty, nobody owns space,
0:11:03 and the moon belongs to everyone.
0:11:04 That’s a problem.
0:11:09 Geopolitical competition, a growing private space economy,
0:11:11 and the relative absence of rules
0:11:16 make space the new Wild West, North, East, and South.
0:11:20 Low Earth orbit, where Starlink is scaling its network,
0:11:23 is congested and getting worse.
0:11:26 Even a small object can do a lot of damage
0:11:28 if it hits a satellite or space station.
0:11:31 We’ve already had some near misses.
0:11:35 A SpaceX satellite almost hit a manned Chinese space station.
0:11:39 A Russian anti-satellite test sent debris hurtling
0:11:41 toward the International Space Station,
0:11:43 forcing astronauts on board to take shelter.
0:11:47 This is the plot line of the movie Gravity,
0:11:48 which starred Sandra Bullock
0:11:50 and President Slayer George Clooney.
0:11:55 What happens when someone takes out a satellite on purpose
0:11:58 or an adversary puts nukes in orbit?
0:12:01 When I was a kid, this happened in the James Bond movie
0:12:03 You Only Live Twice.
0:12:05 The axiom of all sci-fi
0:12:08 eventually becoming reality holds.
0:12:10 We now have a space force,
0:12:11 though it’s not a budgetary priority
0:12:13 for the Defense Department.
0:12:19 The fight over space isn’t limited to geopolitics.
0:12:21 It’s also about commerce.
0:12:25 As business booms and resources are unlocked in new regions,
0:12:27 private companies will enter the fight.
0:12:28 It’s happened before.
0:12:31 We call it colonialism.
0:12:34 At its height, the British East India Company
0:12:39 had its own 250,000 man army and the right to wage war.
0:12:43 The corporation ruled India.
0:12:46 Its competitor, the Dutch East India Company,
0:12:49 had a charter that empowered it to raise armies,
0:12:51 build forts, and make treaties.
0:12:54 Question.
0:12:58 If someone threatens a Starlink satellite,
0:13:02 does Elon Musk call the US government to fight his battles?
0:13:04 Or does he arm his satellites with tiny projectiles
0:13:06 that can neutralize the threat?
0:13:09 Follow up.
0:13:12 If two companies claim the same spot on the moon,
0:13:14 do they call lawyers?
0:13:16 Or does someone go all Nolan Ryan
0:13:19 and throw a moon rocket at a fragile piece of equipment
0:13:22 and claim the resources for their shareholders?
0:13:24 My prediction?
0:13:26 The next battlefield for proxy wars
0:13:31 between the West and its adversaries will be in space.
0:13:32 The armies fighting this war
0:13:36 will be well-paid mercenaries disguised as corporations.
0:13:41 Two asteroids sped by Earth recently,
0:13:44 the smaller one passed between us and the moon
0:13:48 at a distance of about 180,200 miles.
0:13:51 The moon is 238,900 miles away.
0:13:56 Practically a near miss for space travel.
0:14:00 All we could do was watch the rocks zoom by,
0:14:03 but as the cost of space hauling decreases,
0:14:05 new business categories will emerge.
0:14:08 One possible commercial opportunity
0:14:12 is mining asteroids and the moon.
0:14:13 This is still a ways off,
0:14:16 but the spoils could be galactic.
0:14:20 The industry brings new meaning to the term wildcatting.
0:14:22 It would be highly speculative
0:14:25 and driven by the prospect of abundant booty.
0:14:29 If you can reach it, mine it and bring it back.
0:14:32 Last year, NASA launched a probe to an asteroid
0:14:37 that supposedly has a valuation of 10 quintillion dollars.
0:14:42 Note, that makes no sense
0:14:45 as any mineable material of that quantity or value
0:14:49 would result in a crash in value, but I digress.
0:14:54 If asteroid mining is possible, a big if.
0:14:58 It could leverage cheaper space hauling costs
0:15:01 to meet demand on Earth for the critical metals,
0:15:05 cobalt, iron, nickel, platinum and other goodies,
0:15:08 used in electronics, electric car batteries
0:15:10 and solar and wind power.
0:15:15 Creating energy off planet is another compelling idea.
0:15:19 Isaac Asimov first wrote about space solar
0:15:23 in his 1941 short story, Reason.
0:15:25 But a recent NASA study concluded
0:15:29 that it is feasible to generate solar energy in space
0:15:32 and transport it to Earth.
0:15:35 Last year, Caltech launched a prototype
0:15:37 that demonstrated the ability
0:15:40 to wirelessly transmit power in space,
0:15:43 beaming a tiny amount of detectable power to Earth.
0:15:48 This year, UK based startup Space Solar
0:15:52 tested a way to collect solar 24/7.
0:15:56 On Earth, solar collection is limited to daylight hours.
0:16:00 Finally, there’s the idea of relocating manufacturing
0:16:04 and the pollution that comes with it to space.
0:16:07 Jeff Bezos told CBS This Morning.
0:16:10 – This sounds fantastical, what I’m about to tell you,
0:16:11 but it will happen.
0:16:15 – He’s right, it sounds fantastical.
0:16:17 But if the choice is between shifting manufacturing
0:16:21 to space or colonizing Mars,
0:16:24 let’s hear the pitch for space factories.
0:16:27 At the height of the space race,
0:16:30 NASA scientists realized that pens couldn’t function
0:16:32 in space.
0:16:35 To boldly write where no man had written before,
0:16:37 they spent millions developing implements
0:16:39 that worked in zero gravity.
0:16:44 Soviet scientists had a simpler, cheaper solution.
0:16:45 Pencils.
0:16:48 Actually, the space pen story is a myth.
0:16:51 Pencils aren’t great in space, they’re flammable,
0:16:54 the tips break off and drift away in microgravity,
0:16:57 risking harm to the equipment and astronauts.
0:17:02 The real story, in 1965, the Fisher Space Pen Company
0:17:06 patented a pen that could write upside down
0:17:11 in extreme heat and cold and even underwater.
0:17:15 They sold pens to the US and Soviet space programs.
0:17:18 Fisher is still selling pens to this day,
0:17:19 about a million per year,
0:17:23 ranging from $5 to $150 a pen.
0:17:27 Fisher Space Pen found a business in the stars
0:17:29 by serving a market on Earth.
0:17:33 Anyone who wants to reap the spoils of space
0:17:35 will have to do the same thing.
0:17:38 Space is the collision of the business trends
0:17:40 that have defined the last century,
0:17:45 manufacturing, branding, 10X and unexpected externalities.
0:17:50 On a recent flight from Miami to New York,
0:17:52 I was able to try Starlink.
0:17:55 My phone rang was my son FaceTiming me.
0:18:00 The sound and resolution were flawless.
0:18:02 During the call, our pilot announced
0:18:04 that peering out of the left side of the plane,
0:18:07 you could see a SpaceX launch.
0:18:09 It was one of those tech aha moments,
0:18:12 like the first time you called someone from a car,
0:18:13 bought something from your phone,
0:18:16 took a picture of a check to deposit it.
0:18:19 It was also a moment to reflect on the teen depression,
0:18:24 propaganda from bad actors and coarsening of our discourse
0:18:27 that technology has washed up on our shores.
0:18:32 It feels less than bold to posit that
0:18:34 if we weren’t more thoughtful about the externalities
0:18:37 of the commercial development of space,
0:18:42 it won’t be the final frontier, but our last.
0:18:47 – Life is so rich.
0:18:50 (gentle music)
0:18:53 (gentle music)
0:18:56 (gentle music)
0:18:58 you
As read by George Hahn.
The Financial Frontier
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