AI transcript
0:00:00 (upbeat music)
0:00:04 Support for this show comes from Constant Contact.
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0:00:47 – Everything about music is secretly a story
0:00:49 about technology, how we listen to it
0:00:52 from vinyl to iPods to Spotify,
0:00:57 how we make it from pianos to computer plugins to AI prompts,
0:01:00 how we discover it from music blogs to TikTok.
0:01:01 All this month on The Vergecast,
0:01:04 we’re telling stories about those changes
0:01:06 and how technological change changes
0:01:11 not just the way we experience music, but the music itself.
0:01:13 All that, all this month on The Vergecast,
0:01:15 wherever you find podcasts.
0:01:20 – This episode is brought to you by Secret.
0:01:22 Secret Deodorant gives you 72 hours
0:01:24 of clinically proven odor protection,
0:01:28 free of aluminum, parabens, dyes, talc, and baking soda.
0:01:30 It’s made with pH balancing minerals
0:01:33 and crafted with skin conditioning oils.
0:01:36 So whether you’re going for a run or just running late,
0:01:40 do what life throws your way and smell like you didn’t.
0:01:42 Find Secret at your nearest Walmart
0:01:44 or Shoppers Drug Mart today.
0:01:52 – I’m Scott Galloway and this is No Mercy, No Malice.
0:01:54 The election proved that podcasting
0:01:56 is the mass medium of our time.
0:02:00 The podcast election as read by George Hahn.
0:02:09 – I’m still in my pajamas,
0:02:12 haven’t changed since Tuesday night.
0:02:13 I’m also drinking a fair amount
0:02:16 and toggling between Netflix shows.
0:02:19 Nobody wants this, which is pleasant but Uber cliche,
0:02:21 i.e. stupid and monsters,
0:02:23 which as the father of two boys,
0:02:26 I find just plain disturbing.
0:02:29 In sum, for me, it’s COVID again.
0:02:32 Even my stocks are going up, so 2021.
0:02:37 I’ve received 22 emails in the past 24 hours.
0:02:39 When I’m down, I obsess over inconsequential data
0:02:41 as a coping mechanism.
0:02:45 Asking for my thoughts on the election,
0:02:48 my reflexive desire or megalomaniacal belief
0:02:50 that I can comfort strangers
0:02:53 leads me to remind them that nothing is ever as good
0:02:55 or as bad as it seems,
0:02:58 and that the US remains the US,
0:03:02 the richest and freest country on earth.
0:03:05 This election was neither what I wanted nor expected,
0:03:07 but I’m still very much looking forward
0:03:08 to moving back to America.
0:03:11 I just read the previous paragraph
0:03:15 and it’s sort of true, sort of.
0:03:20 My disbelief and despair are shapeshifting to anger.
0:03:23 A narcissist, President Biden,
0:03:25 crowned an untested candidate
0:03:28 and asked her in 107 days
0:03:31 to overcome the crises of immigration and inflation
0:03:35 and the burden of an unpopular incumbency.
0:03:38 When 2/3 of the country says we’re on the wrong track,
0:03:42 there’s no way someone from the current administration
0:03:45 can credibly claim to be a change agent,
0:03:48 much less the disrupter people are looking for
0:03:50 in an age of rage.
0:03:56 I am going on AC 360, MSNBC and Smirkanish
0:03:58 to discuss the mail vote.
0:04:00 This election gave us the opposite
0:04:04 of the expected referendum on bodily autonomy.
0:04:07 It was the testosterone election.
0:04:10 The only thing I’m fairly certain of
0:04:12 is what medium played a pivotal role
0:04:15 for the first time in young people’s decision
0:04:17 to violently pivot to Trump.
0:04:22 Podcasts and that’s what this post is about.
0:04:26 New forms of media periodically
0:04:29 reshape our culture and politics.
0:04:33 FDR mastered radio, JFK leveraged TV
0:04:36 and Reagan nailed cable news.
0:04:39 Obama energized young voters via the internet.
0:04:43 Trump hijacked the world’s attention on Twitter.
0:04:46 This year, it was podcasting.
0:04:49 The three biggest media events of this fall
0:04:53 were the debate and Harrison Trump’s respective appearances
0:04:56 on Call Her Daddy and the Joe Rogan Experience.
0:05:02 Almost half of adult Americans, 136 million people
0:05:05 listened to at least one podcast a month.
0:05:09 The global audience is now 505 million,
0:05:12 a quarter of the internet’s reach.
0:05:16 When Trump went on Joe Rogan, Lex Friedman,
0:05:18 and this past weekend with Theo Vaughn,
0:05:21 he was embracing the manosphere
0:05:24 and riding a tectonic shift in media.
0:05:26 The most efficient way to reach
0:05:28 the largest and most persuadable audience,
0:05:31 i.e. young men, is via podcast.
0:05:34 Nothing comes close.
0:05:38 Rogan has 16 million Spotify subscribers
0:05:39 and can reach many more people
0:05:42 across a variety of other platforms.
0:05:45 In just three days after the live podcast,
0:05:48 his three hour long conversation with Trump
0:05:51 was viewed 40 million times on YouTube.
0:05:56 The audio downloads likely exceeded 15 million.
0:05:57 There will be a lot of second guessing
0:06:00 regarding what the Harris campaign should have done.
0:06:03 Getting on a plane to Austin to visit Rogan
0:06:04 would have been a layup.
0:06:09 By comparison, when Trump appeared on Fox News’ Gutfeld,
0:06:11 which averages about three million viewers,
0:06:14 he reached five million people,
0:06:16 and the full episode has been viewed
0:06:18 2.3 million times on YouTube.
0:06:23 To reach as many people as he did via Rogan,
0:06:25 Trump would have had to do at least
0:06:28 three separate one hour hits on cable TV shows
0:06:31 with numbers comparable to Gutfeld.
0:06:34 There is really a handful of those,
0:06:38 and they’re all on Fox, the top-rated news channel.
0:06:41 Any other news network would have been a waste of his time.
0:06:45 The typical viewership for CNN is below one million,
0:06:48 and CNBC’s is less than 100K.
0:06:53 Anyway, the comparison is apples to cocaine.
0:06:55 Specifically, the audience on the pods
0:06:58 is not only exponentially bigger,
0:07:00 but also much more valuable,
0:07:03 i.e. younger, more male, and more persuadable.
0:07:06 What if a campaign could gather the tens of millions
0:07:09 of undecided or persuadable voters
0:07:11 who may or may not vote,
0:07:13 and put their candidate in front of them
0:07:15 for three hours in an environment
0:07:18 that sets the candidate up for success?
0:07:23 The Trump campaign achieved this by prioritizing podcasts.
0:07:29 Among Fox’s 3.5 million regular viewers,
0:07:34 70% are 50 and over and 45% are women.
0:07:39 The number two cable network, MSNBC,
0:07:43 reaches 1.5 million viewers most days.
0:07:47 Its median viewer is a 70-year-old woman.
0:07:50 So, a big audience of young men
0:07:53 versus a small audience of older women.
0:07:57 People listen to pods to learn.
0:08:01 They watch cable TV to sanctify what they already believe.
0:08:04 The former is much more appealing
0:08:06 to candidates and advertisers.
0:08:11 Rogan’s demographic is 80% male,
0:08:16 93% under 54, and 56% under 34.
0:08:22 Men under 34 are the great white rhinos of advertising,
0:08:26 the most valuable beast in the consumer jungle,
0:08:29 and they’re increasingly difficult to find.
0:08:32 The average listener of My Prop G podcast
0:08:37 is 35 male and makes about 150K a year.
0:08:42 This is an audience I sometimes affectionately call stupid.
0:08:45 They have disposable incomes
0:08:47 and are in the meeting and mating years,
0:08:49 meaning they’re prone to buying all kinds
0:08:50 of high-margin stuff
0:08:53 to try to increase their sexual attractiveness.
0:08:59 They’re also the cohort ambitious politicians want to reach.
0:09:02 Both Minnesota representative Dean Phillips,
0:09:05 who launched a short-lived primary challenge to Biden,
0:09:08 and Massachusetts representative Seth Moulton,
0:09:10 who loudly called on the president
0:09:14 to drop out after his disastrous debate performance,
0:09:17 have come on the Prop G pod and been nice to me
0:09:19 and they’ll likely come back.
0:09:21 It’s not my charm.
0:09:24 Both want to be president and recognize
0:09:28 they have to build name recognition with young men.
0:09:31 The calculus is simple math.
0:09:35 Just as newspapers lost relevance to Google and Meta,
0:09:39 cable news is losing relevance to podcasts.
0:09:44 We have transitioned from a fossil fuel-based economy
0:09:47 to an attention economy, full stop.
0:09:51 If you command attention, revenue will follow.
0:09:56 Note, the best performing tech IPO of 2024
0:10:00 is the fourth most trafficked site in the U.S.
0:10:05 Yet, the company was valued at only $5.7 billion
0:10:10 when it debuted on the Nasdaq seven months ago.
0:10:15 Since then, the market cap of Reddit is up 274%.
0:10:20 The only ad-supported medium growing as fast
0:10:25 as Meta, TikTok, Alphabet, and now Reddit is podcasting.
0:10:29 Podcasting revenue grew 18% this year,
0:10:34 similar to Alphabet at 15% and Meta at 17%.
0:10:39 Podcasts share of attention is well ahead
0:10:41 of their share of ad revenue.
0:10:44 This delta will converge.
0:10:47 I believe podcast revenue is going to grow faster
0:10:49 than that of every other digital platform
0:10:53 with the possible exception of TikTok.
0:10:55 My guess is that next year,
0:10:58 pods ad revenue will grow by 20 plus percent.
0:11:01 Listenership will continue to grow as well
0:11:04 and the ARPU like those of Meta and Alphabet
0:11:06 will increase dramatically too.
0:11:08 As advertisers discover,
0:11:12 this is where young successful consumers have been hiding.
0:11:17 Podcast CPMs now are about $18 for a 30 second ad
0:11:20 and $25 for a 60 second ad.
0:11:24 When people approach me in the wild,
0:11:27 it’s easy to discern where they’ve been exposed
0:11:28 to my content.
0:11:32 A high five in some rowy banter, video.
0:11:34 If they greet me like a friend they haven’t seen
0:11:37 in a while, podcast.
0:11:39 It’s a very intimate medium.
0:11:42 You are physically in somebody’s ear
0:11:44 in a private setting washing the dishes,
0:11:46 working out, walking the dog.
0:11:49 It’s just you and them.
0:11:52 That’s one reason advertisers like podcasts
0:11:57 as the audiences I’m being sold to screen is more porous.
0:12:00 A listener’s guard isn’t up.
0:12:03 Tom Brokaw never had that kind of relationship
0:12:04 with his audience.
0:12:08 That level of intimacy also makes podcasting
0:12:10 a great medium for interviews.
0:12:12 In his conversation with Rogan,
0:12:15 Trump seemed unusually relaxed and comfortable,
0:12:17 a guy you could grab a beer with.
0:12:20 – I always got more publicity than other people
0:12:22 and I didn’t, it wasn’t like I was trying.
0:12:25 In fact, I don’t know exactly why.
0:12:26 Maybe you can tell me why.
0:12:27 – Oh, I can definitely tell you.
0:12:29 You said a lot of wild shit.
0:12:30 – Maybe.
0:12:33 – And that’s typical for a pod.
0:12:36 The medium has a zeitgeist where hosts generally try
0:12:39 to present their guests in a good light.
0:12:41 Unlike cable TV, the hosts aren’t looking
0:12:42 for a gotcha moment.
0:12:45 We let the guest run.
0:12:49 Initially, people accused pods of being radio.
0:12:50 They aren’t.
0:12:52 Pods aren’t shackled to the clock
0:12:54 for the listener or the podcaster.
0:12:57 They’re on demand, i.e. streaming.
0:13:02 And hosts decide how much time a topic deserves or doesn’t.
0:13:04 Think about this.
0:13:07 One of the key commercial advantages of movies over TV
0:13:10 was the producer’s control over the cadence
0:13:12 and length of their content.
0:13:15 They didn’t have the 21 or 41 minute guardrails
0:13:17 that network TV later imposed.
0:13:21 Rogan thought Trump’s story was worth three hours
0:13:24 of his audience’s time, not one or four.
0:13:28 TV anchors and radio hosts are asked
0:13:33 to create differentiated art using a one size canvas.
0:13:35 (gentle music)
0:13:38 Broadcasters sink a lot of capital
0:13:41 into state of the art studios, satellite trucks,
0:13:46 transmitters, fiber optic cables, people, et cetera.
0:13:50 Podcasts don’t need any of that stuff.
0:13:52 That capex was a moat that created leverage
0:13:54 for the networks and their shareholders
0:13:58 who captured most of the medium’s profits.
0:14:01 They controlled the means of production.
0:14:03 The moats now been crossed.
0:14:06 When I go on CNN or another TV network,
0:14:09 I travel to a studio staffed by numerous
0:14:11 skilled technical people.
0:14:14 The network pays their salaries and benefits
0:14:16 and gives them offices and snacks.
0:14:21 A decent TV studio can easily run 400K.
0:14:23 It’s also inefficient.
0:14:27 My show on CNN Plus, Weak Flex,
0:14:30 took a dozen or more people the better part of a week
0:14:34 to pull together 21 minutes of content.
0:14:37 Awesome content, but still.
0:14:41 Now my studio looks like a pretentious footballer’s
0:14:42 Dopp kit.
0:14:45 I doubt it cost a thousand dollars.
0:14:47 Assembled by my tech guy Drew,
0:14:49 it travels with me everywhere.
0:14:52 Any place that has broadband or just sell reception,
0:14:55 I have a studio that can produce content.
0:14:58 I’d speculate a third of my podcasts
0:15:01 are done from somewhere other than my home studio.
0:15:04 Think about how efficient that is.
0:15:08 It enables me to host or co-host three pods a week
0:15:10 and appear on many more.
0:15:13 That kind of portability wasn’t physically
0:15:15 possible pre-COVID.
0:15:19 Meanwhile, net neutrality ensures that any podcast
0:15:24 I go on is available to anyone anytime.
0:15:28 There is no technical reason I could not, in theory,
0:15:31 reach every one of the 5.25 billion humans
0:15:33 on the planet with a digital device.
0:15:37 In broadcast and cable TV,
0:15:40 the platform has always been bigger than the talent.
0:15:44 In podcasting, it’s the other way around.
0:15:46 There is little sustainable enterprise value
0:15:48 in a podcast company.
0:15:53 What matters isn’t CAPEX or infrastructure, it’s talent.
0:15:57 That’s why a lot of individual podcasters are getting rich,
0:16:00 but not a lot of podcast companies’ shareholders.
0:16:03 All you really need to start
0:16:06 is a computer and an internet connection.
0:16:08 You don’t have to run the obstacle course of suits
0:16:11 you’d encounter trying to get into TV or radio
0:16:13 or any other old media,
0:16:17 which is another reason advertisers love podcasts.
0:16:20 There are fewer hands in the talent’s pocket
0:16:22 and fewer hands in their pockets,
0:16:26 resulting in a greater ROI on ad spend.
0:16:30 Low CAPEX means the profits can be enormous
0:16:32 once a podcaster covers the costs
0:16:34 of producing two pods a week,
0:16:38 like two or three producers and a part-time sound engineer.
0:16:42 The ProfG podcast portfolio, ProfG,
0:16:45 ProfG markets, Raging Moderates,
0:16:50 will register 2025 revenue of approximately $10 million.
0:16:54 We employ five producers, two analysts,
0:16:57 and a technical director and sound engineer.
0:17:02 Few businesses garner $1 million plus per employee.
0:17:06 Pivot, the podcast I co-host with Kara Swisher,
0:17:10 does more revenue with even fewer resources.
0:17:12 Note, Vox, our distribution partner,
0:17:14 is responsible for ad sales.
0:17:18 The pods that make the jump to light speed,
0:17:21 covering their fixed costs, and few do,
0:17:24 are very profitable businesses.
0:17:28 The best part, A, as I have a great team
0:17:31 with some people I’ve worked with for over a decade or more,
0:17:36 I spend eight to 12 hours total per week on the pods.
0:17:40 The leverage on my time is substantial.
0:17:43 The cocktail of broad reach and low overhead
0:17:48 translates to more for less for advertisers and talent.
0:17:52 All the moons have lined up,
0:17:55 and podcasting is on an upward spiral.
0:17:58 But as with most everything digital,
0:18:03 podcasting is a winner-take-most-or-all proposition,
0:18:06 because everyone has access to everyone.
0:18:09 A scant handful of pods,
0:18:12 those with the biggest listenerships,
0:18:15 capture nearly all the ad revenue.
0:18:18 By some estimates of the 600,000 podcasts
0:18:21 that produce content each week,
0:18:25 the top 10 get half the revenue.
0:18:28 Put another way, to build a business in podcasting
0:18:31 that pays people well and keeps the attention
0:18:34 of a host with high opportunity costs,
0:18:39 you likely need to be in the top 0.1% by listenership.
0:18:44 The odds of success are admittedly long.
0:18:46 If you’re a high school drama student
0:18:49 who goes on to join SAG-AFTRA,
0:18:51 you’re two times more likely to win an Academy Award
0:18:54 than have a sustainable pod.
0:18:57 As a member of UCLA’s crew team,
0:19:01 I was 3.5 times more likely to end up in the Olympics
0:19:04 than telling dick jokes and making a good living
0:19:06 on a successful podcast.
0:19:07 I could do this all day.
0:19:09 The political power of podcasting
0:19:12 is only beginning to be felt.
0:19:15 This election was supposed to be a referendum
0:19:17 on bodily autonomy.
0:19:18 It wasn’t.
0:19:22 Historically, the candidate who raises the most money wins.
0:19:24 She didn’t.
0:19:25 In each election,
0:19:29 the victor is likely to be whoever best weaponizes
0:19:31 an emerging medium.
0:19:33 He did.
0:19:36 By far, the most potent media weapon this time
0:19:39 was podcasting.
0:19:44 Life is so rich.
0:19:47 (gentle music)
0:19:51 (gentle music)
0:19:53 (gentle music)
0:20:02 [BLANK_AUDIO]
0:00:04 Support for this show comes from Constant Contact.
0:00:07 If you struggle just to get your customers to notice you,
0:00:10 Constant Contact has what you need to grab their attention.
0:00:14 Constant Contact’s award-winning marketing platform
0:00:17 offers all the automation, integration, and reporting tools
0:00:20 that get your marketing running seamlessly,
0:00:23 all backed by their expert live customer support.
0:00:25 It’s time to get going and growing
0:00:28 with Constant Contact today.
0:00:30 Ready, set, grow.
0:00:34 Go to ConstantContact.ca and start your free trial today.
0:00:39 Go to ConstantContact.ca for your free trial,
0:00:41 ConstantContact.ca.
0:00:47 – Everything about music is secretly a story
0:00:49 about technology, how we listen to it
0:00:52 from vinyl to iPods to Spotify,
0:00:57 how we make it from pianos to computer plugins to AI prompts,
0:01:00 how we discover it from music blogs to TikTok.
0:01:01 All this month on The Vergecast,
0:01:04 we’re telling stories about those changes
0:01:06 and how technological change changes
0:01:11 not just the way we experience music, but the music itself.
0:01:13 All that, all this month on The Vergecast,
0:01:15 wherever you find podcasts.
0:01:20 – This episode is brought to you by Secret.
0:01:22 Secret Deodorant gives you 72 hours
0:01:24 of clinically proven odor protection,
0:01:28 free of aluminum, parabens, dyes, talc, and baking soda.
0:01:30 It’s made with pH balancing minerals
0:01:33 and crafted with skin conditioning oils.
0:01:36 So whether you’re going for a run or just running late,
0:01:40 do what life throws your way and smell like you didn’t.
0:01:42 Find Secret at your nearest Walmart
0:01:44 or Shoppers Drug Mart today.
0:01:52 – I’m Scott Galloway and this is No Mercy, No Malice.
0:01:54 The election proved that podcasting
0:01:56 is the mass medium of our time.
0:02:00 The podcast election as read by George Hahn.
0:02:09 – I’m still in my pajamas,
0:02:12 haven’t changed since Tuesday night.
0:02:13 I’m also drinking a fair amount
0:02:16 and toggling between Netflix shows.
0:02:19 Nobody wants this, which is pleasant but Uber cliche,
0:02:21 i.e. stupid and monsters,
0:02:23 which as the father of two boys,
0:02:26 I find just plain disturbing.
0:02:29 In sum, for me, it’s COVID again.
0:02:32 Even my stocks are going up, so 2021.
0:02:37 I’ve received 22 emails in the past 24 hours.
0:02:39 When I’m down, I obsess over inconsequential data
0:02:41 as a coping mechanism.
0:02:45 Asking for my thoughts on the election,
0:02:48 my reflexive desire or megalomaniacal belief
0:02:50 that I can comfort strangers
0:02:53 leads me to remind them that nothing is ever as good
0:02:55 or as bad as it seems,
0:02:58 and that the US remains the US,
0:03:02 the richest and freest country on earth.
0:03:05 This election was neither what I wanted nor expected,
0:03:07 but I’m still very much looking forward
0:03:08 to moving back to America.
0:03:11 I just read the previous paragraph
0:03:15 and it’s sort of true, sort of.
0:03:20 My disbelief and despair are shapeshifting to anger.
0:03:23 A narcissist, President Biden,
0:03:25 crowned an untested candidate
0:03:28 and asked her in 107 days
0:03:31 to overcome the crises of immigration and inflation
0:03:35 and the burden of an unpopular incumbency.
0:03:38 When 2/3 of the country says we’re on the wrong track,
0:03:42 there’s no way someone from the current administration
0:03:45 can credibly claim to be a change agent,
0:03:48 much less the disrupter people are looking for
0:03:50 in an age of rage.
0:03:56 I am going on AC 360, MSNBC and Smirkanish
0:03:58 to discuss the mail vote.
0:04:00 This election gave us the opposite
0:04:04 of the expected referendum on bodily autonomy.
0:04:07 It was the testosterone election.
0:04:10 The only thing I’m fairly certain of
0:04:12 is what medium played a pivotal role
0:04:15 for the first time in young people’s decision
0:04:17 to violently pivot to Trump.
0:04:22 Podcasts and that’s what this post is about.
0:04:26 New forms of media periodically
0:04:29 reshape our culture and politics.
0:04:33 FDR mastered radio, JFK leveraged TV
0:04:36 and Reagan nailed cable news.
0:04:39 Obama energized young voters via the internet.
0:04:43 Trump hijacked the world’s attention on Twitter.
0:04:46 This year, it was podcasting.
0:04:49 The three biggest media events of this fall
0:04:53 were the debate and Harrison Trump’s respective appearances
0:04:56 on Call Her Daddy and the Joe Rogan Experience.
0:05:02 Almost half of adult Americans, 136 million people
0:05:05 listened to at least one podcast a month.
0:05:09 The global audience is now 505 million,
0:05:12 a quarter of the internet’s reach.
0:05:16 When Trump went on Joe Rogan, Lex Friedman,
0:05:18 and this past weekend with Theo Vaughn,
0:05:21 he was embracing the manosphere
0:05:24 and riding a tectonic shift in media.
0:05:26 The most efficient way to reach
0:05:28 the largest and most persuadable audience,
0:05:31 i.e. young men, is via podcast.
0:05:34 Nothing comes close.
0:05:38 Rogan has 16 million Spotify subscribers
0:05:39 and can reach many more people
0:05:42 across a variety of other platforms.
0:05:45 In just three days after the live podcast,
0:05:48 his three hour long conversation with Trump
0:05:51 was viewed 40 million times on YouTube.
0:05:56 The audio downloads likely exceeded 15 million.
0:05:57 There will be a lot of second guessing
0:06:00 regarding what the Harris campaign should have done.
0:06:03 Getting on a plane to Austin to visit Rogan
0:06:04 would have been a layup.
0:06:09 By comparison, when Trump appeared on Fox News’ Gutfeld,
0:06:11 which averages about three million viewers,
0:06:14 he reached five million people,
0:06:16 and the full episode has been viewed
0:06:18 2.3 million times on YouTube.
0:06:23 To reach as many people as he did via Rogan,
0:06:25 Trump would have had to do at least
0:06:28 three separate one hour hits on cable TV shows
0:06:31 with numbers comparable to Gutfeld.
0:06:34 There is really a handful of those,
0:06:38 and they’re all on Fox, the top-rated news channel.
0:06:41 Any other news network would have been a waste of his time.
0:06:45 The typical viewership for CNN is below one million,
0:06:48 and CNBC’s is less than 100K.
0:06:53 Anyway, the comparison is apples to cocaine.
0:06:55 Specifically, the audience on the pods
0:06:58 is not only exponentially bigger,
0:07:00 but also much more valuable,
0:07:03 i.e. younger, more male, and more persuadable.
0:07:06 What if a campaign could gather the tens of millions
0:07:09 of undecided or persuadable voters
0:07:11 who may or may not vote,
0:07:13 and put their candidate in front of them
0:07:15 for three hours in an environment
0:07:18 that sets the candidate up for success?
0:07:23 The Trump campaign achieved this by prioritizing podcasts.
0:07:29 Among Fox’s 3.5 million regular viewers,
0:07:34 70% are 50 and over and 45% are women.
0:07:39 The number two cable network, MSNBC,
0:07:43 reaches 1.5 million viewers most days.
0:07:47 Its median viewer is a 70-year-old woman.
0:07:50 So, a big audience of young men
0:07:53 versus a small audience of older women.
0:07:57 People listen to pods to learn.
0:08:01 They watch cable TV to sanctify what they already believe.
0:08:04 The former is much more appealing
0:08:06 to candidates and advertisers.
0:08:11 Rogan’s demographic is 80% male,
0:08:16 93% under 54, and 56% under 34.
0:08:22 Men under 34 are the great white rhinos of advertising,
0:08:26 the most valuable beast in the consumer jungle,
0:08:29 and they’re increasingly difficult to find.
0:08:32 The average listener of My Prop G podcast
0:08:37 is 35 male and makes about 150K a year.
0:08:42 This is an audience I sometimes affectionately call stupid.
0:08:45 They have disposable incomes
0:08:47 and are in the meeting and mating years,
0:08:49 meaning they’re prone to buying all kinds
0:08:50 of high-margin stuff
0:08:53 to try to increase their sexual attractiveness.
0:08:59 They’re also the cohort ambitious politicians want to reach.
0:09:02 Both Minnesota representative Dean Phillips,
0:09:05 who launched a short-lived primary challenge to Biden,
0:09:08 and Massachusetts representative Seth Moulton,
0:09:10 who loudly called on the president
0:09:14 to drop out after his disastrous debate performance,
0:09:17 have come on the Prop G pod and been nice to me
0:09:19 and they’ll likely come back.
0:09:21 It’s not my charm.
0:09:24 Both want to be president and recognize
0:09:28 they have to build name recognition with young men.
0:09:31 The calculus is simple math.
0:09:35 Just as newspapers lost relevance to Google and Meta,
0:09:39 cable news is losing relevance to podcasts.
0:09:44 We have transitioned from a fossil fuel-based economy
0:09:47 to an attention economy, full stop.
0:09:51 If you command attention, revenue will follow.
0:09:56 Note, the best performing tech IPO of 2024
0:10:00 is the fourth most trafficked site in the U.S.
0:10:05 Yet, the company was valued at only $5.7 billion
0:10:10 when it debuted on the Nasdaq seven months ago.
0:10:15 Since then, the market cap of Reddit is up 274%.
0:10:20 The only ad-supported medium growing as fast
0:10:25 as Meta, TikTok, Alphabet, and now Reddit is podcasting.
0:10:29 Podcasting revenue grew 18% this year,
0:10:34 similar to Alphabet at 15% and Meta at 17%.
0:10:39 Podcasts share of attention is well ahead
0:10:41 of their share of ad revenue.
0:10:44 This delta will converge.
0:10:47 I believe podcast revenue is going to grow faster
0:10:49 than that of every other digital platform
0:10:53 with the possible exception of TikTok.
0:10:55 My guess is that next year,
0:10:58 pods ad revenue will grow by 20 plus percent.
0:11:01 Listenership will continue to grow as well
0:11:04 and the ARPU like those of Meta and Alphabet
0:11:06 will increase dramatically too.
0:11:08 As advertisers discover,
0:11:12 this is where young successful consumers have been hiding.
0:11:17 Podcast CPMs now are about $18 for a 30 second ad
0:11:20 and $25 for a 60 second ad.
0:11:24 When people approach me in the wild,
0:11:27 it’s easy to discern where they’ve been exposed
0:11:28 to my content.
0:11:32 A high five in some rowy banter, video.
0:11:34 If they greet me like a friend they haven’t seen
0:11:37 in a while, podcast.
0:11:39 It’s a very intimate medium.
0:11:42 You are physically in somebody’s ear
0:11:44 in a private setting washing the dishes,
0:11:46 working out, walking the dog.
0:11:49 It’s just you and them.
0:11:52 That’s one reason advertisers like podcasts
0:11:57 as the audiences I’m being sold to screen is more porous.
0:12:00 A listener’s guard isn’t up.
0:12:03 Tom Brokaw never had that kind of relationship
0:12:04 with his audience.
0:12:08 That level of intimacy also makes podcasting
0:12:10 a great medium for interviews.
0:12:12 In his conversation with Rogan,
0:12:15 Trump seemed unusually relaxed and comfortable,
0:12:17 a guy you could grab a beer with.
0:12:20 – I always got more publicity than other people
0:12:22 and I didn’t, it wasn’t like I was trying.
0:12:25 In fact, I don’t know exactly why.
0:12:26 Maybe you can tell me why.
0:12:27 – Oh, I can definitely tell you.
0:12:29 You said a lot of wild shit.
0:12:30 – Maybe.
0:12:33 – And that’s typical for a pod.
0:12:36 The medium has a zeitgeist where hosts generally try
0:12:39 to present their guests in a good light.
0:12:41 Unlike cable TV, the hosts aren’t looking
0:12:42 for a gotcha moment.
0:12:45 We let the guest run.
0:12:49 Initially, people accused pods of being radio.
0:12:50 They aren’t.
0:12:52 Pods aren’t shackled to the clock
0:12:54 for the listener or the podcaster.
0:12:57 They’re on demand, i.e. streaming.
0:13:02 And hosts decide how much time a topic deserves or doesn’t.
0:13:04 Think about this.
0:13:07 One of the key commercial advantages of movies over TV
0:13:10 was the producer’s control over the cadence
0:13:12 and length of their content.
0:13:15 They didn’t have the 21 or 41 minute guardrails
0:13:17 that network TV later imposed.
0:13:21 Rogan thought Trump’s story was worth three hours
0:13:24 of his audience’s time, not one or four.
0:13:28 TV anchors and radio hosts are asked
0:13:33 to create differentiated art using a one size canvas.
0:13:35 (gentle music)
0:13:38 Broadcasters sink a lot of capital
0:13:41 into state of the art studios, satellite trucks,
0:13:46 transmitters, fiber optic cables, people, et cetera.
0:13:50 Podcasts don’t need any of that stuff.
0:13:52 That capex was a moat that created leverage
0:13:54 for the networks and their shareholders
0:13:58 who captured most of the medium’s profits.
0:14:01 They controlled the means of production.
0:14:03 The moats now been crossed.
0:14:06 When I go on CNN or another TV network,
0:14:09 I travel to a studio staffed by numerous
0:14:11 skilled technical people.
0:14:14 The network pays their salaries and benefits
0:14:16 and gives them offices and snacks.
0:14:21 A decent TV studio can easily run 400K.
0:14:23 It’s also inefficient.
0:14:27 My show on CNN Plus, Weak Flex,
0:14:30 took a dozen or more people the better part of a week
0:14:34 to pull together 21 minutes of content.
0:14:37 Awesome content, but still.
0:14:41 Now my studio looks like a pretentious footballer’s
0:14:42 Dopp kit.
0:14:45 I doubt it cost a thousand dollars.
0:14:47 Assembled by my tech guy Drew,
0:14:49 it travels with me everywhere.
0:14:52 Any place that has broadband or just sell reception,
0:14:55 I have a studio that can produce content.
0:14:58 I’d speculate a third of my podcasts
0:15:01 are done from somewhere other than my home studio.
0:15:04 Think about how efficient that is.
0:15:08 It enables me to host or co-host three pods a week
0:15:10 and appear on many more.
0:15:13 That kind of portability wasn’t physically
0:15:15 possible pre-COVID.
0:15:19 Meanwhile, net neutrality ensures that any podcast
0:15:24 I go on is available to anyone anytime.
0:15:28 There is no technical reason I could not, in theory,
0:15:31 reach every one of the 5.25 billion humans
0:15:33 on the planet with a digital device.
0:15:37 In broadcast and cable TV,
0:15:40 the platform has always been bigger than the talent.
0:15:44 In podcasting, it’s the other way around.
0:15:46 There is little sustainable enterprise value
0:15:48 in a podcast company.
0:15:53 What matters isn’t CAPEX or infrastructure, it’s talent.
0:15:57 That’s why a lot of individual podcasters are getting rich,
0:16:00 but not a lot of podcast companies’ shareholders.
0:16:03 All you really need to start
0:16:06 is a computer and an internet connection.
0:16:08 You don’t have to run the obstacle course of suits
0:16:11 you’d encounter trying to get into TV or radio
0:16:13 or any other old media,
0:16:17 which is another reason advertisers love podcasts.
0:16:20 There are fewer hands in the talent’s pocket
0:16:22 and fewer hands in their pockets,
0:16:26 resulting in a greater ROI on ad spend.
0:16:30 Low CAPEX means the profits can be enormous
0:16:32 once a podcaster covers the costs
0:16:34 of producing two pods a week,
0:16:38 like two or three producers and a part-time sound engineer.
0:16:42 The ProfG podcast portfolio, ProfG,
0:16:45 ProfG markets, Raging Moderates,
0:16:50 will register 2025 revenue of approximately $10 million.
0:16:54 We employ five producers, two analysts,
0:16:57 and a technical director and sound engineer.
0:17:02 Few businesses garner $1 million plus per employee.
0:17:06 Pivot, the podcast I co-host with Kara Swisher,
0:17:10 does more revenue with even fewer resources.
0:17:12 Note, Vox, our distribution partner,
0:17:14 is responsible for ad sales.
0:17:18 The pods that make the jump to light speed,
0:17:21 covering their fixed costs, and few do,
0:17:24 are very profitable businesses.
0:17:28 The best part, A, as I have a great team
0:17:31 with some people I’ve worked with for over a decade or more,
0:17:36 I spend eight to 12 hours total per week on the pods.
0:17:40 The leverage on my time is substantial.
0:17:43 The cocktail of broad reach and low overhead
0:17:48 translates to more for less for advertisers and talent.
0:17:52 All the moons have lined up,
0:17:55 and podcasting is on an upward spiral.
0:17:58 But as with most everything digital,
0:18:03 podcasting is a winner-take-most-or-all proposition,
0:18:06 because everyone has access to everyone.
0:18:09 A scant handful of pods,
0:18:12 those with the biggest listenerships,
0:18:15 capture nearly all the ad revenue.
0:18:18 By some estimates of the 600,000 podcasts
0:18:21 that produce content each week,
0:18:25 the top 10 get half the revenue.
0:18:28 Put another way, to build a business in podcasting
0:18:31 that pays people well and keeps the attention
0:18:34 of a host with high opportunity costs,
0:18:39 you likely need to be in the top 0.1% by listenership.
0:18:44 The odds of success are admittedly long.
0:18:46 If you’re a high school drama student
0:18:49 who goes on to join SAG-AFTRA,
0:18:51 you’re two times more likely to win an Academy Award
0:18:54 than have a sustainable pod.
0:18:57 As a member of UCLA’s crew team,
0:19:01 I was 3.5 times more likely to end up in the Olympics
0:19:04 than telling dick jokes and making a good living
0:19:06 on a successful podcast.
0:19:07 I could do this all day.
0:19:09 The political power of podcasting
0:19:12 is only beginning to be felt.
0:19:15 This election was supposed to be a referendum
0:19:17 on bodily autonomy.
0:19:18 It wasn’t.
0:19:22 Historically, the candidate who raises the most money wins.
0:19:24 She didn’t.
0:19:25 In each election,
0:19:29 the victor is likely to be whoever best weaponizes
0:19:31 an emerging medium.
0:19:33 He did.
0:19:36 By far, the most potent media weapon this time
0:19:39 was podcasting.
0:19:44 Life is so rich.
0:19:47 (gentle music)
0:19:51 (gentle music)
0:19:53 (gentle music)
0:20:02 [BLANK_AUDIO]
As read by George Hahn.
The Podcast Election
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