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Summary & Insights
0:00:02 Hi everyone! Happy New Year! I’m Zonal.
0:00:06 As you may know, we launched a new short-form news show last year, 16 Minutes,
0:00:09 where we cover recent news, the A6NZ podcast way.
0:00:12 What’s Hyped with Real? Why They Matter for Advantage Point in Tech?
0:00:15 And that show has continued in a separate feed for quite some time now.
0:00:17 You can subscribe to it, if you haven’t already,
0:00:21 in your podcast app by searching for 16 Minutes A6NZ.
0:00:25 But I’m also sharing the latest episode here in this show feed,
0:00:27 since we sometimes cover not just multiple news items,
0:00:30 but a single topic, prompted by recent headlines,
0:00:34 like we did on our episodes on esports and the opioid crisis.
0:00:38 This week, the topic is personal genomics, the promise, the perils,
0:00:41 where are we really today and where could we be going next?
0:00:44 We start with an article by Peter Aldhaus on, quote,
0:00:47 “Ten years ago, DNA tests were the future of medicine.
0:00:51 Now, they’re a social network and a data privacy mess.”
0:00:53 The article refers to a series of events,
0:00:56 everything from companies like 23andMe and the FDA,
0:00:58 to some of the headlines we’ve seen lately
0:01:01 around criminals being caught based on their relatives’ DNA.
0:01:04 There’s also a number of companies cited in the article who offer such tests.
0:01:06 To be clear, none of the following discussion
0:01:08 should be taken as investment advice.
0:01:11 Please see a6nz.com/disclosures for important information.
0:01:14 So that’s a context and super quick summary.
0:01:16 Now, let me introduce our A6NZ expert,
0:01:20 general partner Jorge Conde, who has a long history in this area.
0:01:23 Since it’s a turn of a decade and the first episode of January,
0:01:25 I thought it’d be great for us to do sort of a Janus-themed
0:01:26 look back, look forward,
0:01:29 starting with quick reactions on reading the piece.
0:01:32 Well, when I read the BuzzFeed piece, which was super interesting,
0:01:35 it took me back to a very specific moment in time.
0:01:36 And I was living in this world.
0:01:38 I was in the personal genomic space.
0:01:41 I had just started a startup that was looking
0:01:45 to essentially interpret full genome data at scale.
0:01:47 If there was something in DNA that could be found
0:01:50 to be relevant or actionable,
0:01:53 we were building technology to detect that.
0:01:54 But what I thought was really neat is,
0:01:56 I’m reading this 10-year retrospective,
0:01:57 if I go back to that moment in time,
0:02:01 I actually participated in a piece that was in some way
0:02:03 a 10-year prospective look
0:02:06 on what the future of personal genomics would look like.
0:02:10 And this is in the 2008 timeframe, more or less.
0:02:13 I get an outreach from, of all things, GQ Magazine.
0:02:15 They had an author, a guy by the name of Richard Powers,
0:02:19 who had just written a book and won all kinds of awards.
0:02:21 He wanted to write about the experience
0:02:25 of what it would mean to have his full genome sequenced
0:02:27 and essentially revealed to him.
0:02:29 And we had started this company known
0:02:30 with the idea that we would be among the first
0:02:32 to fully sequence individuals
0:02:34 and interpret their DNA for them.
0:02:35 But what’s really interesting is,
0:02:37 if you almost read that piece as a companion
0:02:38 to this backward-looking look,
0:02:39 you get the forward-looking look
0:02:40 of what the next 10 years
0:02:42 in personal genomics would look like.
0:02:43 – What was it called?
0:02:44 – It was called “The Book of Me.”
0:02:45 – Oh, fantastic.
0:02:46 What a great title.
0:02:47 So then what is your take?
0:02:48 What’s hype, what’s real here
0:02:51 when it comes to the promise of personal genomics?
0:02:53 The whole complaint of this article
0:02:54 is that we were promised one thing.
0:02:55 They were supposed to be the future of medicine,
0:02:58 but hey, instead we got this big data privacy mess.
0:03:02 – So looking 10 years back of what was hype,
0:03:04 or at least over-expectation,
0:03:06 was that people, in general,
0:03:11 would have a deep curiosity to understand their DNA.
0:03:12 – You’re saying that part is hype?
0:03:14 I would think that part is reality.
0:03:15 – Ah, well, what’s really interesting
0:03:18 is if you look at several companies named,
0:03:21 I think all had at some level an idea
0:03:24 that there would be a large number of people
0:03:27 that wanted to very deeply understand
0:03:29 any sort of secrets or actionable insights
0:03:31 that you could draw from your own genomic information.
0:03:33 And while those people definitely exist,
0:03:37 I don’t think that a large market materialized
0:03:38 around those people.
0:03:40 In fact, one of the eye-opening things for me
0:03:42 when I was starting my company back in 2008,
0:03:46 my ancestry.com was primarily selling subscription services
0:03:48 for getting into these sort of ancestry databases.
0:03:50 – Yeah, online family trees, yeah.
0:03:54 – So I remember I downloaded the S1ancestry.com’s
0:03:56 subscription revenue with something on the order
0:03:59 of $200 million that year.
0:04:00 So another question is,
0:04:03 do people fundamentally want to understand their DNA
0:04:05 in terms of health risks and the like?
0:04:07 Or do people have a fundamental curiosity
0:04:09 to know who they are and where they come from?
0:04:11 – Oh, that’s where you’re saying the difference
0:04:13 between what’s the actual market for this kind of,
0:04:15 there’s a curiosity, but not necessarily a market
0:04:16 for DNA around it.
0:04:18 – Exactly, so people want to understand
0:04:20 who they are and where they come from.
0:04:22 And if it happens to come from DNA data, great.
0:04:24 If it happens to come from looking at ancestry databases,
0:04:27 that seems to be a pretty reasonable substitute
0:04:28 for getting that insight.
0:04:30 – So okay, so you’re saying one of the things that’s hype
0:04:34 is that people may not necessarily want DNA data
0:04:36 specifically, what else is hype?
0:04:37 – I think one of the other things that was potentially
0:04:41 hyped certainly at that time in 2008, 2009, 2010 timeframe
0:04:45 is that there would be something deeply concrete
0:04:47 about DNA that would determine
0:04:50 what your potential health risks
0:04:53 and therefore what your potential outcomes might look like.
0:04:55 You know, sort of it’s this idea that DNA is destiny
0:04:57 when it comes to your health.
0:05:00 Now that’s certainly true in some subset of diseases.
0:05:02 The subset of diseases that are known to be monogenic.
0:05:04 – Right, so single factorial driving it.
0:05:06 – Exactly, when there’s a mutation in a gene
0:05:08 that results in a specific condition,
0:05:09 like a sickle cell anemia.
0:05:11 – Right, which we talked about in our CRISPR episode.
0:05:12 – But when you start to look at things
0:05:15 that are much more complex, much more multifactorial.
0:05:17 – Like cancer, many other diseases.
0:05:19 – Cancer, metabolic disorders, you know,
0:05:21 pick any number of cardiovascular risks.
0:05:23 There are certainly genetic contributors,
0:05:25 but as a lot of experts in the field say is,
0:05:28 you probably get that same level of information
0:05:31 from getting a good family history.
0:05:33 – Right, so basically the second hype piece you’re saying
0:05:37 is that it is not a direct link, a map from oh,
0:05:40 here’s your DNA and then oh, here’s all the diseases
0:05:42 you’re gonna get, not get, et cetera.
0:05:44 And here’s the precise risk you have
0:05:46 for this disease based on me analyzing your DNA.
0:05:47 So I think that’s probably an area
0:05:48 where expectations were probably higher
0:05:50 than where we were in reality,
0:05:52 in terms of how actionable is this information
0:05:54 for someone that is seeking to manage their health.
0:05:55 – So that’s maybe one of the things
0:05:57 where maybe the promise hasn’t quite come through yet.
0:05:59 – And I think another area that is really interesting
0:06:03 is a lot of these businesses were conceived
0:06:06 as subscription businesses.
0:06:09 Where I would give someone a DNA kit for Christmas,
0:06:11 they would get their genome scan
0:06:13 and then they would engage with that
0:06:14 on some regular basis.
0:06:17 And I would suspect that the vast majority of people
0:06:21 that had those DNA scans done, oh, so many Christmases ago,
0:06:23 probably haven’t logged in in a while.
0:06:28 So if you had a genome scan done in 2009
0:06:31 and you did another genome scan in 2019,
0:06:35 I can almost guarantee you that your ancestral makeup
0:06:37 would look different over the course of those 10 years.
0:06:39 – Simply because of the available data.
0:06:40 – We just know more, that’s right.
0:06:41 You, of course, haven’t changed who you are,
0:06:44 but who an ancestry map tells you you are has changed.
0:06:46 – Okay, so that’s where maybe things were hyped
0:06:48 or not delivered yet or promised
0:06:50 and didn’t quite come through.
0:06:51 Now let’s quickly talk about the reality.
0:06:53 So where are we today?
0:06:57 What is possible right now, truly, with personal genomics?
0:07:00 – Well, the first thing I would say is genomics more broadly
0:07:03 has delivered a lot over the course of the last 10 years.
0:07:05 In fact, I will say this as an expert,
0:07:08 not as an entrepreneur in the genomic space,
0:07:10 but as a parent of many children,
0:07:13 one of the fascinating things that I saw was
0:07:15 the time when my wife was pregnant with her oldest child,
0:07:17 you still could not get enough of a signal
0:07:19 from maternal blood as to whether or not
0:07:22 there was sufficient fetal DNA in circulation
0:07:23 to determine whether or not there were
0:07:25 genetic abnormalities.
0:07:27 By the time we had our last child,
0:07:30 that was routine standard of care.
0:07:32 The other example is when the child is actually born,
0:07:36 the mandated genetic tests when a child is born by a state,
0:07:39 and some of the ones you could also opt into,
0:07:42 that menu of tests that were available multiplied
0:07:44 in the relatively few years between the time
0:07:46 when we had our first child and our last child.
0:07:48 – So roughly a decade span.
0:07:50 – So we’ve seen a lot of advance just in the use
0:07:52 of genetic information and the practice of medicine,
0:07:54 and that’s a remarkable advance forward.
0:07:57 So now let’s focus on personal genomics specifically.
0:08:01 One of the promises of personal genomics even back in 2009
0:08:04 was predicated on the fact that there would be power
0:08:06 in numbers.
0:08:09 And in large part, that’s why some of the leaders
0:08:12 in this space, whether it’s 23andMe or ancestry.com
0:08:14 that eventually came into this,
0:08:17 there’s so much value in them amassing a large database.
0:08:20 Because in some ways, as you have more samples
0:08:22 in a database, you get better reads on who we are,
0:08:24 just genealogically, you have a higher resolution
0:08:26 map of the world.
0:08:30 Now, the risk of having a large aggregated data set,
0:08:33 it also becomes attempting target,
0:08:36 sometimes for legitimate uses for investigation,
0:08:38 sometimes perhaps for illegitimate uses.
0:08:40 – Right, this is where privacy concerns come in, exactly.
0:08:41 – Very interesting enough.
0:08:44 This privacy question, it sounds very futuristic,
0:08:46 but even in 2009, these concerns were very real.
0:08:48 If you read the terms and conditions
0:08:50 that services had to their credit,
0:08:53 they were very explicit that this information
0:08:55 could be used in unintended ways.
0:08:57 – Oh, in fact, the article even points out
0:08:59 that one of the companies had to actually expand
0:09:01 their definition of a violent crime
0:09:03 in order to cover it in their terms and services.
0:09:05 And secondly, that some of them are actually
0:09:08 moving to opting in to whether you can even be included
0:09:10 in that aspect of that database,
0:09:12 which is also fascinating that people can actually choose.
0:09:15 – Well, in GNOME, we made a decision early on
0:09:19 where we said we’re actually not gonna aggregate
0:09:20 all of the data, we’re not gonna centralize it.
0:09:22 We did something inverse.
0:09:27 What we decided to do was we would sequence an individual
0:09:30 and place that sequence, that genomic data
0:09:32 on an encrypted key that would live
0:09:34 in a decentralized network.
0:09:38 And the thought was you could keep the queries centralized.
0:09:40 So let’s say a researcher wanted to understand
0:09:42 how many people in a population have this mutation
0:09:43 associated with this disease.
0:09:45 You would push the queries down
0:09:47 to the edges of the network.
0:09:49 The analysis would run locally.
0:09:51 The result, and only the result would come back,
0:09:53 get centralized, then you’d have an aggregated
0:09:55 answer to that question.
0:09:56 – That’s fascinating.
0:09:58 Funnily, even though it’s a very different example,
0:10:00 it reminds me of differential privacy.
0:10:02 And that was also something that Apple
0:10:03 made a bigger deal about in the last few years,
0:10:05 but in fact, it was based on a paper
0:10:07 from Microsoft researchers like a decade ago.
0:10:08 It’s a fundamental insight they have
0:10:09 for how to separate these two things.
0:10:11 So it’s kind of funny, the synchrony of all that.
0:10:13 – Yeah, and arguably we were 10 years too early.
0:10:14 We came up with it.
0:10:15 – That was about timing.
0:10:16 – The other thing, when we thought
0:10:17 through these questions of privacy,
0:10:18 a lot of these were perceived risks.
0:10:21 We didn’t know, but we wrote a lot of risk factors
0:10:23 out to getting yourself sequenced.
0:10:26 And among them, we had things that sound fantastical,
0:10:29 like if someone had an entire readout of your genome,
0:10:31 they could essentially synthesize your genome
0:10:33 and then plant your DNA at a crime scene.
0:10:35 – Right, fascinating.
0:10:35 – Right, and all of a sudden you have
0:10:37 these genetic fingerprints of a place
0:10:38 where you’ve never been.
0:10:39 My co-founder, George Church,
0:10:42 who’s a professor of genetics at Harvard Medical School,
0:10:44 he insisted that we include,
0:10:45 if someone were getting sequenced,
0:10:47 we couldn’t ask them to get buy-in
0:10:49 from all of their family members.
0:10:52 But we could require that if any of them had a twin,
0:10:53 an identical twin, that that twin
0:10:54 would also have to sign up.
0:10:56 – Of course, that makes perfect sense.
0:10:57 So, okay, is there anything else
0:10:58 in what is possible right now
0:11:00 on the personal genomics front?
0:11:01 – Oh yeah, so in the present,
0:11:03 you could argue that on the ancestry side,
0:11:04 we’re getting much better at sort of
0:11:06 getting a high resolution view of who we are
0:11:07 and where we come from and all of that.
0:11:09 And it’s an end of one example,
0:11:12 but if you take the case of 23andMe,
0:11:13 over the course of the decade,
0:11:16 it has amassed a large enough genomic dataset
0:11:18 that it’s clearly valuable
0:11:20 from a research and development standpoint.
0:11:21 It wasn’t that long ago
0:11:22 when they announced a collaboration
0:11:24 with GlaxoSmithKline with GSK,
0:11:26 where GSK is essentially paying them
0:11:28 something on the order of $300 million
0:11:30 to get access to this dataset,
0:11:32 to be able to drive some insights from it
0:11:34 and potentially even follow up with people
0:11:36 on a very opt-in basis.
0:11:38 And so, that will show you that
0:11:40 at least on the original promise of personal genomics,
0:11:41 that this is one example. – The values there
0:11:43 and the data, yeah. – That’s been delivered, right?
0:11:45 And so, there is power in numbers.
0:11:46 And I think the question like in it,
0:11:49 with any other technology, with any other resources,
0:11:50 can we find the right balance
0:11:51 where we’re benefiting the commons
0:11:52 and not at the expense of the individual?
0:11:54 And I think that’s where a lot of the debate
0:11:56 happens in terms of are we doing the right things?
0:11:58 – So, that’s where we are now.
0:11:59 Let’s talk about the future
0:12:02 since we’re doing this whole Janus-themed episode.
0:12:04 So, given that there was this past of promise
0:12:05 that was and wasn’t delivered,
0:12:07 present of where we are,
0:12:10 where are we going with personal genomics next?
0:12:11 Or what is actually possible
0:12:12 based on what we already know today?
0:12:14 – Yeah, well, I think there are certain things
0:12:15 that are possible based on what we know today.
0:12:18 The first one is as these datasets become more rich,
0:12:20 the ability to derive insights from them,
0:12:23 that’ll be relevant for how we diagnose or treat disease.
0:12:26 I think that becomes increasingly more valuable over time.
0:12:28 So, what I mean by that is,
0:12:31 one of the big knocks on drug discovery and development
0:12:33 is that it takes a long time,
0:12:35 it’s very expensive and the risk of failure is high.
0:12:37 One of the sort of lesser known data points
0:12:42 is that if you have a genetic insight driving the program,
0:12:45 saying that I think that a particular molecular compound
0:12:48 is going to be effective in a particular patient population
0:12:52 that’s defined by some sort of genetic or genomic marker,
0:12:54 that molecule, that compound,
0:12:56 that drug has a much higher,
0:12:59 significantly higher chance of success.
0:13:00 – What does that mean practically?
0:13:02 Does it mean that we can actually basically,
0:13:04 is it natural extrapolation of that,
0:13:05 that there may be a future
0:13:07 where we do get personalized tailored medicine
0:13:08 based on those molecules?
0:13:09 – That’s right.
0:13:11 The extrapolation of that is that we’ll get better,
0:13:13 faster, cheaper drugs that are tailored
0:13:14 to the right population.
0:13:16 – Yeah, sort of like personalized cocktails
0:13:18 at a mass manufactured level.
0:13:21 – Essentially, yeah, personalized cocktails of therapies
0:13:23 that at least are targeted to specific populations.
0:13:24 – That’s actually the better way of saying that.
0:13:25 – Another potential future thing,
0:13:27 especially if we’re doing a 10 year perspective look
0:13:31 from today is people talk about personal genomics.
0:13:34 I think genomics is but one omic.
0:13:35 – Ah, yes, multi-omics.
0:13:36 – That’s right.
0:13:37 – Very big thing.
0:13:39 – If the big revolution over the course of the last 10 years
0:13:42 is that we were able to sequence,
0:13:45 read DNA at a massive scale at a low cost
0:13:47 at high fidelity and all those things,
0:13:50 that’s increasingly true across many other ways
0:13:52 in which biology transmits information.
0:13:54 And I can bore you with all of the omics.
0:13:55 – Go through a couple of the hit list.
0:13:58 I mean, proteomics is one I know from when I was at park.
0:14:00 – So genomics is DNA, proteomics is proteins,
0:14:04 transcriptomics is RNA, epigenomics is gene regulation
0:14:05 and how genes levels are set.
0:14:08 Metabolomics, the set of metabolites in your body
0:14:10 and of course microbiomics
0:14:12 and how the microbiome influences with all of that.
0:14:14 We’re increasingly going to read biology
0:14:16 across many, many frequencies.
0:14:18 And by the way, we can also increasingly read biology
0:14:20 at a higher and higher resolution,
0:14:23 which means you could read all of this information,
0:14:24 not for a single individual,
0:14:27 but increasingly from a single cell.
0:14:28 And that’s a very different thing
0:14:30 because now you could, for example, in a tumor,
0:14:33 you can understand how are the immune cells reacting
0:14:33 to the tumor cells?
0:14:35 How are the tumor cells reacting to the immune cells?
0:14:37 If you can read biology at that resolution,
0:14:40 we’re going to learn a lot more about biology.
0:14:41 Now, when you add to the fact
0:14:44 that it’s not just omics being transmitted by the cell
0:14:46 that we can capture at high fidelity,
0:14:48 but increasingly we have more sensor data
0:14:49 than ever before, more ability to crunch data
0:14:51 than ever before, I think if you look over the course
0:14:54 the next 10 years, it won’t be a question
0:14:55 of personalized genomics.
0:14:58 I think that will at some level be a data term.
0:15:00 It’ll be the question of, you know,
0:15:02 can you quantify individuals fully?
0:15:04 And we’re getting closer and closer to that.
0:15:05 – What would you say though?
0:15:05 I have to ask this
0:15:08 because we don’t want to be sitting here 10 years from now
0:15:10 and asking, so what did we get wrong 10 years ago?
0:15:12 Or hey, when you and I talked about this topics,
0:15:14 is it possible that multi-omics
0:15:16 is also one of these much hyped things as well?
0:15:18 I mean, we can’t predict the future obviously,
0:15:20 things play out, it’s always a matter of timing sometimes
0:15:23 when not, if, where are we really on the spectrum
0:15:24 of hype versus reality?
0:15:25 – Yeah, it’s a good question.
0:15:28 I think if we take the last 10 years as any guide,
0:15:31 there tends to clearly be sort of two stages,
0:15:33 two phases, two ages.
0:15:35 The first age is using technology to learn
0:15:37 and the second age is to use technology to act.
0:15:39 If we look at what happened with personal genomics
0:15:44 is that first age where we took to learn to gather data
0:15:46 ended up being I think a lot longer
0:15:48 than people probably originally anticipated
0:15:51 and we’re seeing the benefits of how we can act on that
0:15:53 towards the tail end of the last 10 years.
0:15:54 I think it’s probably reasonable to assume
0:15:57 that if we look over the course of the next 10 years
0:16:01 to your question, the dividing line between hype
0:16:03 and reality on something like multi-omics
0:16:05 for me is really the dividing line
0:16:08 and when do we shift from learning from information
0:16:10 to acting on information.
0:16:12 – So one thing I wondered about frankly is the parallels
0:16:14 and your team talked about this a lot
0:16:15 in terms of the parallels between engineering
0:16:17 and the engineering phase coming to biology
0:16:19 which is that when it comes to DNA in genomics,
0:16:21 the thing that’s been most fascinating for me to watch
0:16:24 for the last decade is that there is a Moore’s law
0:16:27 in genomics and it’s much faster than the regular Moore’s law
0:16:31 and yet that pacing outcome of practical application
0:16:33 is not necessarily on par with what happened
0:16:34 with the semiconductor.
0:16:36 So that’s where the analogy really breaks down
0:16:37 despite an accelerated effect.
0:16:41 So one question for me is what is missing in the ecosystem?
0:16:44 Like is it that there isn’t the ability to manufacture?
0:16:46 Is it a missing market as you alluded to earlier?
0:16:49 Are there missing components or materials?
0:16:50 You know, when I think of the history of innovation,
0:16:51 what still needs to be built out
0:16:54 in addition to this core fundamental technology
0:16:56 for this vision to come to reality?
0:16:57 – Ah, that’s a great question.
0:17:00 But first of all, I think the reason why we see a faster
0:17:02 than Moore’s law trend in genomics
0:17:06 is because the ability to sequence and interpret DNA
0:17:11 is really the confluence of three or four engineering marbles.
0:17:14 You know, if you look at the next generation sequencer,
0:17:17 really what it is is, you know, you’re tracking
0:17:18 the history and evolution of our ability
0:17:21 to engineer better microfluidic systems
0:17:22 in order to move around tiny amounts of liquids.
0:17:24 – All about microfluidics from Xerox.
0:17:25 – There you go.
0:17:27 So you’re seeing improvements in the ability
0:17:30 to engineer better chemistry.
0:17:32 And this is both at the nucleotide level
0:17:35 so we can, you know, get more efficient reactions.
0:17:37 And at the surface chemistry of the platform,
0:17:40 so you can actually run more and more reactions
0:17:41 in tighter and tighter real-estates.
0:17:43 You get more density, that’s a second wave.
0:17:47 The third wave is we have massive improvements in optics.
0:17:50 So if you’re gonna run a bunch of chemical reactions
0:17:52 in very, very, very small real estate,
0:17:54 you need to be able to detect those.
0:17:54 – Optical detection.
0:17:56 – Optical detection.
0:17:58 So when the actions that drive sequencing
0:17:59 are occurring at such density
0:18:01 that they fall below the pixel detection level
0:18:03 of the optics, you can’t see the difference between them.
0:18:05 So we had to see improvement in optics.
0:18:08 And then all of that generated data
0:18:12 that had to be deconvoluted with advanced computation.
0:18:13 – And those are the four factors.
0:18:14 – And those are the four factors.
0:18:16 – Microfluidics, optical detection,
0:18:18 improvements in chemistry and data, fantastic.
0:18:19 – So that’s that revolution.
0:18:22 So now why haven’t we seen sort of the output look the same?
0:18:25 The difference there is the output of Moore’s law
0:18:28 is better and smaller semiconductors.
0:18:31 Those could be placed within a system
0:18:32 that’s been designed by people,
0:18:34 like human beings that could be optimized.
0:18:37 And therefore you can get new products.
0:18:40 – In the case of genomics, the output of that information
0:18:43 has to go into a system that was not designed by human beings.
0:18:44 – It was designed by nature.
0:18:46 So Jorge, bottom line it for me.
0:18:49 So in this journey from looking backward
0:18:50 and looking forward,
0:18:52 where are we in the personal genomics revolution
0:18:54 and what should our takeaway be?
0:18:57 – We’re still in the early days of this revolution.
0:19:00 If we look over the long course of time,
0:19:03 we are still very much in the learning phase
0:19:05 and the data collection phase
0:19:07 and the information gathering phase.
0:19:10 And it will be some time before we make a mass shift
0:19:11 into the taking action phase
0:19:14 or into the productization phase
0:19:15 from all of this information.
0:19:17 But when you look where we are heading,
0:19:18 that day will arrive.
0:19:20 And that’s why we are incredibly optimistic
0:19:23 about what the future of genomics of multiomics
0:19:26 and biology more broadly will bring to our benefit.
0:19:29 And when it comes to the privacy, in its full iteration,
0:19:33 we will get the maximum power from genomic information
0:19:36 when virtually everyone is sequenced.
0:19:38 If we have perfect information,
0:19:40 we can theoretically draw better insights.
0:19:44 But that will come at important cost and considerations
0:19:47 for how we treat the concerns of individuals
0:19:50 that are contributing to that data
0:19:52 in a way that you’re still protecting the individual
0:19:54 but still benefiting the comments.
0:19:55 – Thank you for joining this episode.
0:19:56 – My pleasure.

La llegada de los coches autónomos no será un evento repentino y único, sino una evolución gradual, con mejoras incrementales que aparecerán cada uno o dos años hasta que la autonomía total se convierta en una opción de compra dentro de una década. Esta progresión será desigual, comenzando con pequeños despliegues geográficamente limitados de vehículos avanzados antes de expandirse a áreas y casos de uso más amplios. El consenso entre los expertos es que la línea de tiempo no se trata tanto de un avance mágico y lejano, sino de resolver una serie de desafíos concretos e interconectados.


Más allá de los beneficios a menudo citados de conveniencia y seguridad mejorada drásticamente, los vehículos autónomos prometen remodelar las ciudades y la sociedad de maneras profundas. Podrían actuar como una red masiva de sensores móviles, reduciendo potencialmente el crimen a través de un monitoreo ambiental constante. El diseño urbano se transformaría a medida que grandes extensiones de tierra dedicadas al estacionamiento estén disponibles para viviendas o parques, y los desplazamientos se recuperen como tiempo productivo o de ocio, permitiendo experiencias hiperpersonalizadas dentro del vehículo. La convulsión económica será significativa, particularmente para los proveedores automotrices tradicionales, pero creará enormes nuevas oportunidades en software vehicular y gestión de flotas.


Quedan obstáculos significativos antes de que este futuro se materialice. El “polo más largo de la carpa” no es solo un problema, sino una combinación de altos costos de sensores, escasez de talento de ingeniería especializado, marcos regulatorios no resueltos y la necesidad de una nueva infraestructura digital como mapas de alta definición. La seguridad—tanto ciberseguridad como privacidad de datos—plantea un desafío crítico, similar a las batallas en curso en la web pero con consecuencias físicas. Además, la industria debe desarrollar nuevos modelos para validar la seguridad de las actualizaciones de software por aire a gran escala, requiriendo colaboración entre empresas y gobiernos.


Perspectivas Sorprendentes



  • Los vehículos autónomos, como una red de sensores en movimiento, podrían servir como un sistema de vigilancia generalizado, reduciendo potencialmente las tasas de crimen pero generando nuevas preocupaciones sobre la privacidad.

  • La mayor “masacre” económica podría no ser entre los fabricantes de automóviles (OEMs) sino entre los proveedores tradicionales de Nivel 1, a medida que el software se convierte en el creador de valor dominante.

  • La teleoperación (guía humana remota) no se ve como un apoyo temporal, sino como una capa probablemente permanente y crítica en la pila de software, aumentando la IA al manejar escenarios raros de “desconocido desconocido”, similar a los ingenieros de DevOps que gestionan flotas de servidores.

  • El desafío regulatorio principal no es el despliegue inicial de miles de coches, sino gobernar el ecosistema cuando millones de vehículos reciban actualizaciones de software diarias y críticas para la vida de muchos actores diferentes.

  • El apasionado argumento del “amante de los coches” contra la autonomía podría ser irrelevante, ya que conducir podría convertirse en una actividad recreativa confinada a áreas específicas, muy parecido a como es la equitación hoy en día, en lugar de una utilidad para el transporte diario.


Conclusiones Prácticas



  • Para empresas y emprendedores, involúcrese con estados progresistas (como Arizona, Nevada, Michigan) que están creando activamente espacios de prueba regulatorios para acelerar las pruebas y el despliegue en el mundo real.

  • Miren más allá del coche en sí; existen oportunidades masivas de software en construir las herramientas, plataformas de simulación y sistemas de gestión de flotas que apoyarán el ecosistema autónomo.

  • Considere la teleoperación no como conducción completamente remota, sino como un sistema para ayudar a la IA a entender escenarios ambiguos, manteniendo al humano como un guía de alto nivel en lugar de un conductor directo para minimizar la latencia y los riesgos de seguridad.

  • Abogue y ayude a desarrollar estándares federales unificados para la certificación de seguridad y ciberseguridad, en lugar de un mosaico de leyes estatales, para garantizar la seguridad sin sofocar la innovación.

  • Al pensar en el impacto social, presente el beneficio de seguridad en términos crudos: la transición a la autonomía aborda un número de muertes equivalente a un 747 completamente cargado estrellándose cada día.


A chegada dos carros autónomos não será um evento súbito e único, mas uma evolução gradual, com melhorias incrementais surgindo a cada um ou dois anos, até que a autonomia total se torne uma opção de compra daqui a uma década. Esta progressão será desigual, começando com implementações limitadas, em áreas geográficas restritas, de veículos avançados, antes de se expandir para zonas mais vastas e mais casos de uso. O consenso entre os especialistas é que o cronograma não se trata tanto de um avanço mágico e distante, mas mais de resolver uma série de desafios concretos e interligados.
Para além dos benefícios frequentemente citados de conveniência e segurança dramaticamente melhorada, os veículos autónomos prometem reformular as cidades e a sociedade de formas profundas. Poderão funcionar como uma rede massiva de sensores móveis, potencialmente reduzindo o crime através de uma monitorização ambiental constante. O desenho urbano transformar-se-ia à medida que vastas quantidades de terrenos dedicados ao estacionamento se tornam disponíveis para habitação ou parques, e os trajetos casa-trabalho são recuperados como tempo produtivo ou de lazer, permitindo experiências hiper-personalizadas dentro do veículo. A convulsão económica será significativa, especialmente para os fornecedores tradicionais da indústria automóvel, mas criará enormes novas oportunidades no software veicular e na gestão de frotas.
Existem obstáculos significativos antes que este futuro se realize. O “poste mais longo da tenda” não é apenas um problema, mas uma combinação de custos elevados dos sensores, escassez de talento de engenharia especializado, quadros regulatórios não resolvidos e a necessidade de nova infraestrutura digital, como mapas de alta definição. A segurança — tanto a cibersegurança como a privacidade de dados — representa um desafio crítico, semelhante às batalhas contínuas na web, mas com consequências físicas. Além disso, a indústria terá de desenvolver novos modelos para validar a segurança de atualizações de software *over-the-air* em grande escala, exigindo colaboração entre empresas e governos.
### *Insights* Surpreendentes
* Os veículos autónomos, enquanto rede de sensores móveis, poderiam servir como um sistema de vigilância pervasivo, potencialmente baixando as taxas de crime, mas levantando novas preocupações de privacidade.
* O maior “banho de sangue” económico poderá não ocorrer entre os fabricantes de automóveis (OEMs), mas entre os fornecedores tradicionais *Tier 1*, à medida que o software se torna o criador de valor dominante.
* A teleoperação (orientação humana remota) é vista não como uma muleta temporária, mas como uma camada provavelmente permanente e crítica na pilha de software, aumentando a IA ao lidar com raros cenários de “incógnitas desconhecidas”, semelhante aos engenheiros de DevOps que gerem frotas de servidores.
* O principal desafio regulatório não é a implantação inicial de milhares de carros, mas governar o ecossistema quando milhões de veículos receberem atualizações de software diárias, críticas para a vida, de muitos atores diferentes.
* O argumento apaixonado do “apaixonado por carros” contra a autonomia pode ser irrelevante, uma vez que conduzir poderá tornar-se uma atividade recreativa confinada a áreas específicas, tal como a equitação é hoje, em vez de uma utilidade para transporte diário.
### Conclusões Práticas
* Para empresas e empreendedores: envolvam-se com estados progressistas (como Arizona, Nevada, Michigan) que estão a criar ativamente *sandboxes* regulatórias para acelerar testes e implementação no mundo real.
* Olhem além do próprio carro; existem oportunidades massivas de software na construção das ferramentas, plataformas de simulação e sistemas de gestão de frotas que suportarão o ecossistema autónomo.
* Considerem a teleoperação não como condução totalmente remota, mas como um sistema para auxiliar a IA a compreender cenários ambíguos, mantendo o ser humano como um guia de alto nível, em vez de um condutor direto, para minimizar a latência e os riscos de segurança.
* Advoguem e ajudem a desenvolver normas federais unificadas para certificação de segurança e cibersegurança, em vez de uma colcha de retalhos de leis estaduais, para garantir segurança sem sufocar a inovação.
* Ao pensar sobre o impacto social, apresentem o benefício de segurança em termos nítidos: a transição para a autonomia aborda um número de mortes equivalente a um 747 totalmente carregado a despenhar-se todos os dias.

This is a turn of the decade (and January-themed) look backward/ look forward into personal genomics, given recent and past retrospective and prospective pieces in the media on the promise, and perils, of the ability to sequence one’s DNA: What did it, and does it, mean for personalized medicine, criminal investigations, privacy, and more?

General partner Jorge Conde, who has a long history in the space, covers everything from where genealogy databases and large datasets come in to fetal testing, multi-omics, and other themes spanning the past, present, and future of personal genomics in conversation with Sonal Chokshi for episode #18 our news show 16 Minutes, where we cover recent headlines, the a16z way, from our vantage point in tech — and especially what’s hype/ what’s real. While we typically cover multiple headlines, this is one of our special deep-dive episodes on a single topic. (You catch up on other such deep dives, on the opioid crisis and other evergreen episodes, at a16z.com/16Minutes). And if you haven’t already, be sure to subscribe to the separate feed for “16 Minutes” to continue getting new episodes.

 

image: Petra Fritz / Flickr

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