AI transcript
0:00:05 Botox Cosmetic, autobotulinum toxin A, FDA approved for over 20 years.
0:00:10 So, talk to your specialist to see if Botox Cosmetic is right for you.
0:00:15 For full prescribing information, including boxed warning, visit botoxcosmetic.com or
0:00:19 call 877-351-0300.
0:00:22 Remember to ask for Botox Cosmetic by name.
0:00:26 To see for yourself and learn more, visit botoxcosmetic.com.
0:00:29 That’s botoxcosmetic.com.
0:00:33 Support for this show comes from Constant Contact.
0:00:36 If you struggle just to get your customers to notice you,
0:00:40 Constant Contact has what you need to grab their attention.
0:00:45 Constant Contact’s award-winning marketing platform offers all the automation, integration,
0:00:49 and reporting tools that get your marketing running seamlessly,
0:00:53 all backed by their expert live customer support.
0:00:57 It’s time to get going and growing with Constant Contact today.
0:00:59 Ready, set, grow.
0:01:04 Go to ConstantContact.ca and start your free trial today.
0:01:08 Go to ConstantContact.ca for your free trial.
0:01:11 ConstantContact.ca.
0:01:17 -Locan-Raging Moderates, I’m Scott Galloway.
0:01:18 -And I’m Jessica Tarliff.
0:01:22 -And we are live at Maxwell in downtown New York in Tribeca.
0:01:25 [APPLAUSE]
0:01:29 Okay, enough of that. Let’s bring it back to me.
0:01:34 So, I’m pretty sure this place used to be Trapeze.
0:01:35 Do you know what Trapeze is?
0:01:36 -No.
0:01:39 -Does anyone know what Trapeze was?
0:01:40 -One person.
0:01:42 -Oh, it tended of hands going up.
0:01:45 It was a sex club at the turn of the millennium.
0:01:46 True story. True story.
0:01:50 The second woman I dated in New York said,
0:01:53 “I have a really great idea what we should do tonight.”
0:01:55 And the good news is we went to a sex club.
0:01:59 The bad news is only one of us had sex and it wasn’t me.
0:02:01 Anyways, how are you, Jess?
0:02:04 -I’m having a much more PG day than you.
0:02:05 -Yeah?
0:02:07 -I remember this as a Chinese restaurant.
0:02:10 From when I was growing up, it was China Blue.
0:02:12 -Sex club, Chinese restaurant, tomato tomorrow.
0:02:14 -I’m 20 years younger.
0:02:15 -Oh, that hurts.
0:02:16 -Sorry.
0:02:17 -That hurts. Okay.
0:02:19 All right, let’s get back to our– let’s get to why we’re here.
0:02:20 We’re breaking up.
0:02:23 All right, let’s get back to our– let’s get to why we’re here.
0:02:26 We’re breaking down tonight the final stretch
0:02:29 as we enter the home stretch in what is arguably
0:02:31 the closest election in a while, at least.
0:02:32 People will come up to you.
0:02:34 What do you say when people come up to you and say,
0:02:36 “What do you think’s gonna happen?”
0:02:37 -I get really nervous. -Yeah.
0:02:40 -Like, really sweaty, uncomfortable.
0:02:44 And a lot of that is because I have a strong sense of optimism,
0:02:47 which is might be the polyana in me.
0:02:50 And– but I don’t want to get someone else’s hopes up.
0:02:52 I also don’t want to be embarrassed on election night
0:02:54 if it gets called for Trump and I’m sitting there
0:02:55 like a complete asshole that was like,
0:02:58 “No, Kamala could win.”
0:03:02 So I say it’s unbelievably close,
0:03:05 but I still think that there is a decent likelihood
0:03:08 that one of them wins by a pretty substantial amount.
0:03:11 And that doesn’t mean Tuesday night that you know,
0:03:14 but that the tea leaves are all going in one direction.
0:03:16 Like, certain key groups are breaking one way.
0:03:19 And honestly, I think that that is the safest thing
0:03:20 for the fate of democracy.
0:03:22 Whoever wins, that it’s decisive.
0:03:25 And he’ll say whatever he’s gonna say about it,
0:03:27 but that’ll be better for us.
0:03:29 What do you say? Do people say that to you?
0:03:31 -Yeah, I have absolutely no idea.
0:03:33 But you said– you reminded me yesterday–
0:03:34 we had coffee yesterday and you said,
0:03:36 “Whatever happens, you hope it’s decisive.”
0:03:39 And I think that’s actually a really fair point.
0:03:40 So I don’t know if you saw it,
0:03:43 but Vice President Harris was on your network, Fox.
0:03:44 -I definitely saw it. -Yeah.
0:03:48 -Which 50 times. -With Brett Baer?
0:03:49 -Yeah. -Brett Baer?
0:03:50 -You really love Brett. -Yeah, I love Brett.
0:03:53 If there’s a zombie apocalypse, I’m gonna brand it.
0:03:55 But out in front of my house with a submachine gun,
0:03:57 protecting me and my family.
0:03:58 Would you fuck with Brett Baer?
0:04:01 That guy looks like he’s born to kill other people.
0:04:03 (audience laughing)
0:04:05 Not that there’s anything wrong with that, right?
0:04:09 Anyways, what did you think of the conversation
0:04:13 and kind of the one moment that he apologized for later?
0:04:15 What’s your take on it? Recognizing they pay you?
0:04:18 -Right. Everyone in the room, please recognize that.
0:04:20 That’s foundational to everything that I do.
0:04:22 And I love my job.
0:04:24 Not just saying that for the audience,
0:04:27 but it’s a ton of fun and it’s great.
0:04:30 So I went back and forth as I was watching the interview.
0:04:32 And I had some moments where I was like,
0:04:33 she totally nailed that.
0:04:36 I had some moments where I was just happy
0:04:38 that Brett was asking her the things
0:04:40 that are in the minds of lots of voters.
0:04:43 I mean, you’re thinking about such a small subsection
0:04:45 of the population who actually is undecided.
0:04:49 And I don’t know if by today, this was last Wednesday,
0:04:51 it’s probably hundreds less than it was
0:04:52 even when they filmed that interview
0:04:55 that have their minds to make up.
0:04:57 But in the aftermath of it,
0:05:00 I think that both of them kind of won
0:05:02 and that’s the point of it.
0:05:06 So for people that have been concerned about Kamala Harris
0:05:08 that she isn’t competent
0:05:09 or she doesn’t have the kind of substance
0:05:13 or the heft behind her to be able to sit down
0:05:15 and take the tough questions,
0:05:16 she proved that.
0:05:17 I mean, she didn’t waffle at all.
0:05:21 There was no laughing or kind of circuitous talking
0:05:24 which she had been, you know, pinged for before.
0:05:26 And I actually think that his style,
0:05:28 which I know is one of the commentary points about it
0:05:29 that he was interrupting her.
0:05:31 I think it helped her a lot
0:05:34 because it didn’t allow her to get lost in herself.
0:05:38 He kept redirecting her to the topic at hand.
0:05:40 I thought she did well on that enemy within question.
0:05:42 And also talking about her proposals.
0:05:45 I mean, that’s one of the big issues
0:05:47 that I think the media has with this race.
0:05:49 And I mean, the media writ large
0:05:52 is the double standard in terms of specificity
0:05:54 that they say, well, Donald Trump’s answering these questions.
0:05:56 Like, I don’t know if you guys saw,
0:05:58 but he was with the Wall Street Journal editorial board
0:06:01 and they said, you know, his acuity has never been better
0:06:04 and he’s offering all these specific policy positions.
0:06:06 And I’m like, I listened to the guy talk
0:06:09 about Arnold Palmer’s junk on Saturday night.
0:06:11 Like, this is not what’s going on here.
0:06:13 – I ordered a stiff Arnold Palmer,
0:06:15 and Jack’s like, for you, thinking it was hilarious.
0:06:17 And the guy’s like, we don’t do that.
0:06:19 – You got the wrong sex club.
0:06:20 – Yeah.
0:06:23 – So, see, it came back to you.
0:06:26 – Yeah, I love chow man with that.
0:06:28 – Did you, what did you think about it?
0:06:30 – I’m so triggered by it.
0:06:32 I have trouble watching.
0:06:34 I don’t think she’s great on her feet.
0:06:36 So whenever I watch her live,
0:06:38 I just get very stressed out.
0:06:41 I thought, I thought they did a reasonable job.
0:06:43 I think it’s good that she’s there.
0:06:45 And like you said, I think you described it perfectly.
0:06:46 I think it was a win for Brett,
0:06:50 a win for Fox, and a win for her just by being there.
0:06:51 So at this point though,
0:06:53 I don’t know anyone who’s watching Fox,
0:06:55 who’s probably undecided.
0:06:58 Although you pointed out something I had not considered,
0:07:00 because I love CNN and I go on Fox,
0:07:01 but I don’t love it as much.
0:07:03 I’ll just leave it at that.
0:07:07 But you pointed out that actually Fox has more moderates
0:07:12 watching than CNN, which was really striking to me.
0:07:14 – Yeah, it’s, I think the breakdown,
0:07:17 and now I’ll do a plug for the five.
0:07:18 This will surprise you,
0:07:23 but 22% now of the five viewership are Democrats,
0:07:28 38% are independents, and the rest are Republicans.
0:07:33 And the way that the cable news eco-sphere has shaped out
0:07:38 kind of in the Trump era is that if you are looking
0:07:42 to watch something that isn’t just 24 hours, I hate Trump,
0:07:44 you are tuning in to Fox at this point.
0:07:46 Now you might have your hosts that you like better,
0:07:50 you might not be tuning in for the primetime programming,
0:07:54 but you can see people from both parties being interviewed.
0:07:59 And I think, I mean, this argument is sometimes
0:08:03 a tough sell, but when you hear opposition voices
0:08:06 on other networks and they’re never Trump Republicans,
0:08:09 you aren’t necessarily getting a real look
0:08:11 at what’s going on in politics today.
0:08:13 I love a lot of these people like,
0:08:15 I love Alyssa Farah Griffin, who’s on the view
0:08:16 and is on CNN.
0:08:18 Where Alyssa Farah Griffin is,
0:08:20 is not where the majority of Republicans are.
0:08:22 Liz Cheney, God love her,
0:08:24 maybe she delivers us the election.
0:08:27 I don’t know, but the way Liz Cheney thinks about the world
0:08:30 is not the way the average Republican does.
0:08:31 – But along those lines,
0:08:33 so Vice President Harris has been campaigning
0:08:36 with a lot of Republicans in Pennsylvania.
0:08:38 There’s, you know, Adam Kitzinger,
0:08:40 Barbara Comstock was Cheney.
0:08:43 Do you think that’s effective or are they seen as,
0:08:47 so what I find online is that Republicans just write me off,
0:08:49 like whatever, he’s a libtard, right?
0:08:51 I’m used to that.
0:08:54 What I find is where I get the most vicious attacks though,
0:08:55 it’s from the far left,
0:08:57 ’cause they treat me like an apostate.
0:08:59 Like we thought we could trust you.
0:09:00 – Right.
0:09:02 – But actually, there’s no room for moderates,
0:09:03 is what I find online.
0:09:06 You’re either, and I find the far left quite frankly,
0:09:08 at least for center left,
0:09:11 is much more unforgiving than the far right.
0:09:12 They just write you off.
0:09:14 The far left acts like you’re a traitor.
0:09:15 If you don’t sign up for the cult
0:09:18 and the exact narrative they want you to buy into.
0:09:21 And I wonder if, in fact,
0:09:25 these people are seen as apostates and don’t help at all.
0:09:28 That they actually, oh, no wonder they’re with her,
0:09:29 they’re traitors.
0:09:32 I just don’t know.
0:09:33 I don’t know if it moves the needle at all.
0:09:35 You would logically think Republicans coming out
0:09:38 and favor her, but the Republicans coming out
0:09:40 are the ones that kind of what I’ll call
0:09:45 the Maga Republicans just think are the establishment
0:09:46 and no better than Democrats.
0:09:48 Fair?
0:09:50 – It is fair, and also I think
0:09:52 a little more complicated than that.
0:09:55 So the latest polling out of Pennsylvania,
0:09:57 for instance, shows that 12% of Republican voters
0:10:00 are supporting Kamala Harris,
0:10:02 which could be determinative, if you think that.
0:10:04 – Do you know what it was for past elections?
0:10:05 I need a benchmark for that.
0:10:07 Is that low or high?
0:10:08 – Oh, it’s really high.
0:10:11 Sorry, did my voice not intimate that that was a good thing?
0:10:12 – Yeah, that’s a big thing.
0:10:12 – Okay.
0:10:13 – That’s a big thing.
0:10:14 – In really positive news.
0:10:18 And I think it’s something like upwards of 30%
0:10:19 of Nikki Haley’s primary voters
0:10:21 have said they’re going to back Harris.
0:10:22 Like that’s across the country.
0:10:24 So that’s going to be popping up in North Carolina.
0:10:26 It’s going to be popping up in Georgia.
0:10:31 And I think what Kamala has been able to do
0:10:33 that it seems like has the most chance of being effective
0:10:36 is she’s siloing her different campaigns.
0:10:41 So she has a campaign for disaffected Republicans
0:10:43 who pro-democracy Republicans,
0:10:45 which you can have that conversation with Liz Cheney.
0:10:49 Then she is having a conversation with minority voters.
0:10:51 Like last week was the tour of that,
0:10:54 the Charlemagne the God Town Hall, all of that.
0:10:57 She is having a campaign that is just for women,
0:10:59 talking about reproductive freedom
0:11:03 and mind your damn business as Tim Walls was saying.
0:11:06 And I know that that makes some people uncomfortable.
0:11:07 And we’ve talked to this,
0:11:09 like you don’t like identity politics.
0:11:10 I think it’s a necessary evil.
0:11:12 – You might be right, yeah.
0:11:13 – And if you’re going to show up
0:11:16 and you’re going to talk to a room full of X group,
0:11:18 you better have something specific to tell them
0:11:21 about how their life is going to be better
0:11:22 when you’re president.
0:11:24 So let’s shift gears to Trump.
0:11:26 He’s been serving fries.
0:11:26 – Yeah.
0:11:29 – He’s at, well, first up,
0:11:31 did you ever work at a fast food restaurant?
0:11:34 – No, I was a hostess and I fainted the first day
0:11:35 from the stress of it.
0:11:36 It was so embarrassing.
0:11:37 My mom is here.
0:11:39 My dad has to come pick me up.
0:11:40 – That’s a stressful job.
0:11:41 – Thank you.
0:11:42 – Like trying to assess the landscape
0:11:44 and where does it go on table?
0:11:46 – Like plugging in the orders
0:11:47 and when people have a modification.
0:11:49 – I get nervous just thinking about it.
0:11:50 – Did you do fast food?
0:11:51 – You fainted?
0:11:52 – I did.
0:11:53 I was, it’s a long story.
0:11:57 I had had, I had gotten sick in Mexico,
0:12:00 like a week and a half before I was low on Gatorade,
0:12:03 but it was also very stressful on top of it.
0:12:06 It’s not a good story.
0:12:06 I shouldn’t have said it.
0:12:07 – I’m more responsible.
0:12:10 So I was a bus boy at dishwasher
0:12:11 at a place called islands.
0:12:13 I delivered pizzas for this place
0:12:16 called the pizza joint in Beverly Hills.
0:12:18 I did a lot of services work.
0:12:19 I think it should be mandatory for every kid
0:12:21 to do some sort of services work.
0:12:25 I think it builds character, makes you less of an asshole.
0:12:27 I’m a huge fan of service work.
0:12:29 Anyways, not for the president.
0:12:31 I don’t think that makes a lot of sense.
0:12:35 And so Fox News Women’s Town Hall,
0:12:38 which we found out was full of Trump supporters.
0:12:39 How did you think that went?
0:12:43 – So again, and this is where I wonder,
0:12:45 and if we want to talk about Elon Musk,
0:12:46 it comes back to this.
0:12:47 I feel more intense than-
0:12:49 – By the way, he’s a tech executive.
0:12:50 (audience laughing)
0:12:52 – That’s Scott and Kara really like.
0:12:55 – Yeah, you know, he’s wealthy
0:12:57 and he’s, anyway, I’m sorry, go ahead.
0:13:00 – I feel that my algorithm has done more damage
0:13:03 to my mental health in the last two weeks
0:13:06 than it has the entirety of my time on Twitter.
0:13:08 – That’s called Instagram.
0:13:09 – I could do that.
0:13:10 I need to go other places.
0:13:12 – Why is that, say more.
0:13:15 – Whether Musk, I don’t know exactly how it’s working
0:13:17 and this does coincide with him dumping
0:13:19 even more and more money into it.
0:13:23 I feel like I am not seeing any good stuff
0:13:25 for the Democrats and I am only seeing
0:13:27 incredibly positive stuff for Trump.
0:13:29 I see some heads nodding out there
0:13:31 and I don’t know, I’m not a conspiracy theorist,
0:13:33 I’m not saying that all the engineers there
0:13:37 are out to get me and to ruin the five o’clock show
0:13:39 to have no opposition, but I, at first,
0:13:41 saw only kind of positive things for him
0:13:43 out of the town hall and then I went looking for it
0:13:47 and then I saw that on certain grounds,
0:13:50 you could say it was an abject disaster for him,
0:13:52 that you had Republican women saying,
0:13:54 why do you think the government should have anything
0:13:55 to do with my basic rights?
0:13:57 And then he just bragged again.
0:13:58 – That I’m the father of IVF.
0:14:01 – The father of IVF, which is unclear.
0:14:03 I love that he said that and then he admitted
0:14:06 he had to ask Katie Britt what it was.
0:14:10 And then he was like, oh yeah, definitely the father of that.
0:14:13 – My sense is the stuff that’s trying to embarrass him,
0:14:17 when he calls Kamala, Vice President Harris,
0:14:22 a shitty VP, when he has these Ave Maria moments,
0:14:27 I think that actually helps him
0:14:29 because we’re all talking about it
0:14:32 and we want to get our sensors up and we want reasons
0:14:35 to be angry and talk about what an idiot is.
0:14:39 And the issue is the people whose sensors that tickles,
0:14:41 we’re already decided.
0:14:45 And the problem is that as that takes up oxygen in the room,
0:14:47 as opposed to talking about real issues
0:14:49 that might actually change voters’ minds,
0:14:54 such as if these proposed tariffs ever become a reality
0:14:58 and there’s anything in congruence
0:14:59 with what he’s trying to do with immigration,
0:15:01 both legal and anti-illegal,
0:15:02 that is literally a peanut butter
0:15:05 and chocolate combination for runaway inflation.
0:15:08 To me, that’s the thing we should be talking about right now,
0:15:10 not what an idiot he is or how ridiculous.
0:15:14 We know that, we get it, we’ve been there, right?
0:15:16 We saw it with Biden, right?
0:15:17 Now we’re seeing it with him, right?
0:15:21 He’s adult, but instead, but all of this stuff,
0:15:25 I think they like it when folks like us or CNN
0:15:27 or whoever it is or the algorithms
0:15:28 are serving up all these ridiculous moments
0:15:31 ’cause the people who like them, they don’t care.
0:15:35 They know they’re in on that, whatever, right?
0:15:37 And it makes us feel good,
0:15:39 but any of the real issues just get squeezed out
0:15:43 that might squeeze out or that might attract swing voters.
0:15:47 I just think it’s a strategy and we’re being played,
0:15:49 talking about the stupid shit he does
0:15:52 and how ridiculous he is, we already know that,
0:15:54 but it crowds out anything resembling a conversation
0:15:58 that I think swing voters wanna talk about.
0:16:01 The deficit would go up, his proposed economic plan,
0:16:04 the deficit would be triple what it is
0:16:09 under the proposed economic plan of Harris.
0:16:11 That is effectively, effectively
0:16:14 the biggest tax increase in history on young people
0:16:16 ’cause I won’t be here to pay back that debt.
0:16:19 I’ll get the champagne and cocaine that that will create.
0:16:20 I’ll get the stimulus for it.
0:16:23 It’ll prop up my assets, which I already own,
0:16:26 but effectively the largest tax increase in history
0:16:29 on young people is being proposed by an economic plan
0:16:31 that’ll massively explode our deficit
0:16:33 ’cause we have enough credit worthiness
0:16:36 to pay it back for 20 or 30 years, we’ll be fine,
0:16:39 but when shit gets real in 20 or 30 years,
0:16:40 it’s gonna be really ugly.
0:16:41 I think that’s a real issue.
0:16:43 If I was a young person, I’d wanna know, wait,
0:16:46 that’s about to be the largest tax increase in history on me,
0:16:48 but we don’t get time to talk about this stuff
0:16:51 ’cause we’re talking about fucking Ave Maria.
0:16:53 Back to you.
0:16:54 (audience laughing)
0:16:57 – Well, I would say, and obviously I have
0:17:01 a little bit of a strange job in the main scheme of things,
0:17:05 but you only get, if you’re gonna push back on something,
0:17:07 even if you’re having a discussion with a friend,
0:17:08 you only get a finite amount of time
0:17:11 to actually make an impact on their thinking.
0:17:15 And what Ave Maria does, or Arnold Palmer,
0:17:18 or the late great Hannibal Lecter,
0:17:20 whoever we’re talking to that,
0:17:23 you got stuck for at least 30 seconds
0:17:26 in this hellscape where someone is telling you,
0:17:28 but he’s funny, right?
0:17:29 Or we like that he has a sense of humor,
0:17:31 he doesn’t take himself that seriously,
0:17:34 which I like in a person, generally.
0:17:36 I mean, I’m big enough to admit that there are moments
0:17:39 where Donald Trump is wildly charming.
0:17:41 I thought that the hour that he did
0:17:43 on my colleague Greg Guttfeld’s show,
0:17:46 if you didn’t see it, was a side of him
0:17:48 that I totally get why voters are into.
0:17:50 He wasn’t combative at all
0:17:52 because he was with people who like him,
0:17:55 and he was talking about what it’s like to go on Johnny Carson
0:17:58 and like to party at Studio 54.
0:18:02 You know, I went to see The Apprentice over the weekend,
0:18:04 which I have many thoughts about,
0:18:05 but part of it that was awesome
0:18:10 was seeing Donald Trump opening up these incredible buildings
0:18:11 all across New York City,
0:18:13 and how he navigated all of that.
0:18:15 And like, I can see the appeal of it.
0:18:19 So if you get lost, if you spent 30 seconds to 60 seconds
0:18:23 dealing with, we’re talking about a commander in chief,
0:18:24 we’re not talking about someone
0:18:26 that you wanna go out and have a drink with,
0:18:28 then you do lose people’s attention
0:18:31 to get back to them with the ammo of,
0:18:34 why do you not care that a deportation force
0:18:37 is gonna cause inflation like we’ve never seen?
0:18:39 Or do you not care about the deficit?
0:18:42 Or Kamala Harris actually has a plan
0:18:43 for your aging mother,
0:18:46 who might have to die in a hospital
0:18:47 versus being able to die at home.
0:18:48 We were talking about that last week.
0:18:53 It’s by far and away the best policy of either campaign
0:18:55 to have Medicare cover that.
0:18:58 And she can’t get a word in edgewise about it
0:19:00 because she’s on the defensive constantly.
0:19:06 – Fox Creative.
0:19:09 – This is “Apertizer Content” from Virgin Atlantic.
0:19:10 (beeping)
0:19:11 – Hey, Kara, it’s Scott.
0:19:14 Remember me, the guy, Tina Fade, your Alec Baldwin,
0:19:16 sort of rejuvenated your career.
0:19:17 And he was, I’m at the lounge at Heathrow.
0:19:19 I’m at the Leathrow, the Virgin Lounge,
0:19:21 the Virgin Atlantic Clubhouse Lounge.
0:19:24 And I’m about to have the chicken tikka masala.
0:19:25 I love it here.
0:19:26 You should check it out.
0:19:27 It’s where the cool kids hang out.
0:19:30 Anyways, hope you’re all safe travels.
0:19:32 – Scott, frankly, it’s a miracle that Virgin Atlantic
0:19:33 let you into the clubhouse
0:19:35 and their incredible business class.
0:19:36 But I guess they did.
0:19:38 Tell me how it was.
0:19:40 – So, Kara, I’m an original gangster
0:19:41 when it comes to Virgin.
0:19:45 I’ve been flying Virgin for 20 plus years.
0:19:47 And I do the same thing.
0:19:49 And they get it right every time.
0:19:51 They always have the financial times for me.
0:19:53 And I order the chicken tikka masala.
0:19:57 And that is my Virgin experience.
0:19:58 If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
0:20:01 – And your drink was, what is your drink?
0:20:03 – Well, I used to drink a Bloody Mary
0:20:05 or a beer in the clubhouse.
0:20:08 I started, I don’t drink alcohol when I travel anymore.
0:20:09 So I just do mineral water,
0:20:11 but they have this kind of cool cocktail
0:20:13 that’s like a lemongrass
0:20:15 or some sort of cool margarita thing.
0:20:16 And I get a Virgin one.
0:20:18 – What is your pre-flight routine?
0:20:20 What is your actual, besides your chicken tikka masala,
0:20:22 the Virgin clubhouse?
0:20:24 – My pre-flight routine is,
0:20:26 well, I always do the same thing the morning when I travel.
0:20:27 I try and work out.
0:20:28 I take the dogs for a walk.
0:20:30 And I always make time for the clubhouse
0:20:32 ’cause I do enjoy the Virgin clubhouse at Heathrow.
0:20:35 So check out virginatlantic.com for your next trip
0:20:37 and see the world differently.
0:20:38 Certain amenities are only available
0:20:40 in selected cabins and aircraft.
0:20:46 Support for this episode is brought to you by Express VPN.
0:20:48 These days, it can sometimes feel like
0:20:50 the only time your eyes aren’t locked into a screen
0:20:52 is the time you’re laying in bed.
0:20:53 And even that might be a stretch.
0:20:54 But all that time logged on
0:20:58 could lead to your data being tracked and possibly sold.
0:20:59 If you want to limit who exactly
0:21:01 can access your personal data,
0:21:04 you might want to check out Express VPN.
0:21:06 With Express VPN on your device,
0:21:07 you can hide your IP address,
0:21:10 making your data harder to trace and sell to advertisers.
0:21:12 But also, according to the company,
0:21:15 Express VPN equips 100% of your internet data
0:21:17 to help you keep you safe from hackers
0:21:18 and eavesdroppers on your network.
0:21:21 Plus, Express VPN is easy to use.
0:21:23 You can download the app on your phone or computer
0:21:25 with the tap of one button.
0:21:26 I can tell you personally
0:21:28 that I have used Express VPN for several years.
0:21:30 It’s easy interface, cool to use,
0:21:32 static part of my technology life.
0:21:35 So if you want to keep your personal data personal,
0:21:37 you can better protect yourself with a VPN designed
0:21:38 to keep you safer online.
0:21:41 Protect your online privacy today
0:21:44 by visiting expressvpn.com/propg.
0:21:47 That’s E-X-P-R-E-S-S,
0:21:49 vpn.com/propg
0:21:54 and get an extra three months free, expressvpn.com/propg.
0:21:57 This week on PropG Markets,
0:21:58 we speak with Alice Hahn,
0:22:01 China Economist and Director at GreenMantle.
0:22:04 We discuss the impacts of China’s stimulus plan,
0:22:06 the threat of a war with Taiwan
0:22:08 and the likelihood that China and the US
0:22:09 will fix their relationship.
0:22:12 You look at middle America that’s been carved out,
0:22:15 jobs that have effectively gone towards China
0:22:17 and other cheaper markets around the world
0:22:19 and you were left with, you know,
0:22:21 industries that have been hollowed out,
0:22:23 you only need to look at Detroit to see that.
0:22:25 And so you’ve got this political backlash
0:22:28 that has been aimed fully and squarely at China
0:22:29 and it’s a backlash that is politically
0:22:31 and economically motivated.
0:22:33 – You can find that conversation and many others
0:22:36 exclusively on the PropG Markets podcast.
0:22:40 – What did you think?
0:22:44 It felt like JD Van sort of tried to answer the question,
0:22:46 he gets over and over, do you believe
0:22:48 that Biden was fairly elected?
0:22:50 What did you think of his response?
0:22:53 – He’s very slick, he’s very good.
0:22:57 I think, I said today, like, of the four people
0:23:00 that are, you know, the presidential candidates
0:23:03 and the VP’s, I think he’s arguably the smartest
0:23:06 and the best debater of all of them.
0:23:07 – Absolutely, I think he’s brilliant.
0:23:12 – And I think it’s a fine word salad of the thing.
0:23:14 But again, to the point about Liz Cheney,
0:23:17 for the voters who need someone to say,
0:23:19 Donald Trump lost the election
0:23:21 and then he tried to overturn the result,
0:23:23 nothing he says is ever gonna be good enough,
0:23:26 but it gives this kind of 20 to 30%
0:23:33 who know better but want you to keep soothing them that way.
0:23:36 And I just wonder also, how does that conversation go?
0:23:39 Like, do you think Donald Trump ever explicitly said to him,
0:23:42 you may never contradict me on this
0:23:45 or it’s just implied of the top lieutenants
0:23:48 that you can never seem normal about it?
0:23:51 Because I bet, honestly, if JD Vance even broke a little bit,
0:23:53 that it could bring some voters back into the fold
0:23:56 because is Trump gonna finish his term?
0:24:00 I don’t know, he doesn’t seem that mentally well,
0:24:03 he’s exhausted, he’s talking about it now.
0:24:05 So I think people would find JD Vance more palatable
0:24:08 if they knew that he was a little bit more normal.
0:24:10 – Yeah, there’s sort of the issues we talk about
0:24:11 and a lot of them I think are more, again,
0:24:13 just to there to tickle our senses
0:24:14 instead of the real issues.
0:24:16 I think the most important person in this race
0:24:19 that we don’t talk about is a guy named Peter Thiel.
0:24:22 And essentially Peter Thiel is kind of,
0:24:23 everyone’s obsessed with Elon Musk,
0:24:27 Peter Thiel is the power player that no one talks about.
0:24:32 And that is essentially Senator Vance served in the Marines
0:24:34 and he should be honored for that and respected for it,
0:24:35 wrote a wonderful book.
0:24:37 I think it’s a, that is a brilliant book.
0:24:40 He is a very intelligent man.
0:24:42 He had a mediocre career as a venture capitalist
0:24:44 and that’s being generous.
0:24:47 And then a billionaire found him
0:24:50 and essentially got him elected as Senator
0:24:53 and is now the man behind him ascending.
0:24:56 Kind of, I think the deal is something like this,
0:24:57 we’ll give your campaign a lot of money.
0:25:00 I know how to game social media.
0:25:01 This is going to be your VP.
0:25:05 And the thing about a democracy,
0:25:06 and there’s a lot of studies showing
0:25:08 that it works better than autocracies,
0:25:09 is checks and balances.
0:25:11 The reason why we have a lot of this in transagents,
0:25:12 three branches of government,
0:25:14 555 people who don’t get along,
0:25:17 is we don’t make stupid decisions really quickly.
0:25:18 There’s a wisdom of crowds.
0:25:20 There is a wisdom of democracy.
0:25:23 And if Trump wins, there’s a one,
0:25:24 if you look at actuarial tables,
0:25:27 right, a 70 year old obese man,
0:25:28 over the next four and a half years
0:25:31 has a one in three chance of dying.
0:25:33 That means we are very actually,
0:25:35 right now, if you believe the edges to Trump,
0:25:37 which I do, I don’t want to believe that,
0:25:39 but I do believe it’s gone to head.
0:25:41 Yeah, I think he’s got the edge right now.
0:25:44 That means you have a guy who is essentially,
0:25:46 I don’t want to say owned,
0:25:49 but Senator, Vice President,
0:25:51 and potentially President Vance,
0:25:54 will never utter one word to Peter Thiel,
0:25:55 and that word is no.
0:25:58 He is there because of Peter Thiel.
0:26:00 So you’re about to have the most powerful person
0:26:03 on top of the most powerful nation,
0:26:05 the biggest military,
0:26:07 and the largest economy on the world,
0:26:10 is the guy who’s going to have all the power cry, frankly,
0:26:13 is the guy most Americans have never heard of,
0:26:14 and we never talk about it.
0:26:16 And I think if the Democrats were better,
0:26:18 and better messaging,
0:26:20 they would talk more about Peter Thiel and say,
0:26:21 this guy’s going to run the country.
0:26:23 Are you down with that?
0:26:26 One of the components of a democracy
0:26:28 is there are a lot of people with a lot of power.
0:26:30 This guy is literally going to be the guy
0:26:32 who made the president.
0:26:35 And I was trying to think throughout political history,
0:26:37 if there’s ever been an individual
0:26:41 who would have the kind of power that’s not elected,
0:26:42 maybe Rupert Murdoch,
0:26:47 I don’t know, that Thiel’s going to have if they win.
0:26:49 Well, I think an interesting comp,
0:26:54 and it shows that this would have been possible
0:26:55 without such a truncated campaign.
0:26:57 I mean, you have to remember that this,
0:26:59 she only got four months to do this.
0:27:02 So a lot of the groundwork that would have been laid
0:27:04 would have come earlier.
0:27:07 But in just eight to 10 weeks,
0:27:10 the Democrats have managed to completely socialize
0:27:12 Project 2025 and the Heritage Foundation
0:27:17 and get it up to like an 80% negativity perspective
0:27:18 or whatever the right way is to say,
0:27:21 people know what Project 2025 is and they hate it.
0:27:22 Whatever aspect they’re looking at,
0:27:24 like if you’re in the reproductive rights angle,
0:27:26 I mean, you’ve seen the porn industry
0:27:29 is taking out ads against Project 2025
0:27:32 because that’s something that would be banned.
0:27:37 You have, we interviewed Larry Hogan a few weeks ago
0:27:41 and he hates Project 2025 because of the number
0:27:43 of bureaucrats that are going to get laid off
0:27:44 because of it, because in Maryland,
0:27:48 what most people do, they work in the government.
0:27:49 You think there could have been a way
0:27:52 to have an anti-Peter Thiel campaign
0:27:54 and you could have turned him into
0:27:58 the human Project 2025, right, to talk about that.
0:27:59 But it was a missed opportunity
0:28:01 and there was something that came out over the weekend.
0:28:05 I forget what article it was,
0:28:08 but it said that Democrats really missed an opportunity
0:28:12 by excluding Elon Musk from the fold.
0:28:13 And I wanted to ask you about it,
0:28:17 that we could have taken him in
0:28:20 and told him all the stuff that is true,
0:28:23 like you launch rockets, we all drive your cars,
0:28:26 you get Starlink to people from everywhere,
0:28:29 from North Carolina to Ukraine to Estonia.
0:28:30 We want you on our team.
0:28:34 And because he is the island of the misfit toys,
0:28:36 he took the rejection of that
0:28:39 from when he first started doing interviews
0:28:43 and talking about threats to the First Amendment, et cetera.
0:28:44 And we kind of banished him.
0:28:47 And now we’re paying the price for it.
0:28:50 I mean, what is he spending like a million dollars a day
0:28:52 or something on recruiting people
0:28:54 or getting people to sign up to vote,
0:28:55 the get out the vote effort that he’s funding.
0:28:59 And do you think we should have held him tight?
0:29:01 – So the, I hate to admit this,
0:29:03 ’cause I think it’s a terrible role model for young men,
0:29:07 but there are millions, if not tens of millions of people
0:29:09 who think he’s the most impressive person on the planet.
0:29:11 And you can empathize with that.
0:29:13 And I think one of the biggest strategic errors
0:29:18 if you go back in time was Biden had an EV summit
0:29:20 and didn’t invite Musk.
0:29:22 And that was just fucking stupid.
0:29:23 – That’s so weird.
0:29:25 – That’s just basically saying,
0:29:27 I mean, Tesla has inspired the EV race.
0:29:29 It’s a great American company.
0:29:31 It’s created a ton of shareholder value.
0:29:34 And to have an EV summit and just bring,
0:29:36 you know, the CEO of the Pontiac Leaf,
0:29:40 it’s just, okay, what you’re saying is that’s a big,
0:29:43 you’re sticking up the middle finger deal on Musk.
0:29:45 And I don’t think he’s ever forgiven them for that.
0:29:46 – Why would you?
0:29:48 I mean, you never would.
0:29:49 – Oh.
0:29:51 – No, I don’t want, you’re a far better man.
0:29:53 – No, no, no, no, no.
0:29:56 I hold grudges for much less than that.
0:30:00 But, and then when you see this projectile,
0:30:04 it has 16 stories crashing and barreling towards Earth.
0:30:07 And then it ignites and somehow gets caught
0:30:09 by a metal contraption.
0:30:10 I look at that and I’m like, yeah,
0:30:12 I’ll vote for whoever that guy’s voting for.
0:30:14 I mean, the reality is that she’s just really,
0:30:15 really impressive.
0:30:19 And I think they massively screwed up alienating him.
0:30:22 Now, to the extent, so let’s use that as a bridge
0:30:24 to he is now giving a million dollars a day,
0:30:27 I think in a lottery for if you get someone
0:30:28 to register to vote.
0:30:31 And my understanding is legal scholars
0:30:34 have pretty much weighed in and have said,
0:30:36 it’s not only deeply concerning,
0:30:38 but I’ve seen things highlighted that said bottom line is,
0:30:42 it’s a violation of campaign election laws and it’s illegal.
0:30:44 But here’s the problem.
0:30:47 And that is the algebra of deterrence is not in place.
0:30:50 What is the algebra of deterrence?
0:30:52 The majority of us will never commit a crime,
0:30:53 one ’cause we like to think we’re good people
0:30:54 and good citizens,
0:30:56 but I would argue the algebra of deterrence
0:30:57 is why we don’t commit crimes.
0:30:59 And the algebra is very straightforward.
0:31:00 It’s the likelihood you get caught
0:31:02 times the penalty has to be greater
0:31:04 than the potential upside.
0:31:07 So I have access to inside information occasionally, right?
0:31:09 Serving on boards and shit like that.
0:31:11 I would like to make a lot of money.
0:31:12 I could talk myself, I don’t think,
0:31:15 but I could see how people could rationalize
0:31:18 a way to make money with insider trading.
0:31:21 But if you’re a straight white guy on a board
0:31:25 and you’re caught trading on insider information,
0:31:27 you could go to jail for a very long time.
0:31:29 The upside’s just not worth it.
0:31:30 The likelihood you get caught
0:31:32 in a digital age is pretty high.
0:31:35 The likelihood based on your background,
0:31:37 if you’re that privileged to be on a board,
0:31:39 that they’re not gonna show you any sort of leniency
0:31:41 and you end up in jail and the Southern District
0:31:43 comes after you full-throated.
0:31:44 I think a lot of people do that math and go,
0:31:47 no, I’ll make sure that I’m not trading in stocks
0:31:49 where I have non-material insider information.
0:31:51 The algebra of deterrence is in place.
0:31:54 It is not in place in some key areas in our economy.
0:31:57 I can have information that 15-year-old girls
0:32:01 are cutting themselves and are suitably more depressed
0:32:03 and engaging in self-harm.
0:32:05 And I can see that information and I can cover it up
0:32:08 and I can lie about it because if I get fined,
0:32:11 or if someone says you violated your consent decree,
0:32:15 the fine might be 11 weeks of free cash flow.
0:32:16 So the algebra of deterrence is not in place
0:32:18 in what is the largest sector in our economy
0:32:19 and not as a tax sector.
0:32:21 Until someone shows up in an orange suit,
0:32:24 an orange suit, when we find out they knew
0:32:26 that their products were damaging young women
0:32:29 or girls specifically or that they were radicalizing
0:32:30 young men, nothing’s gonna happen
0:32:32 because we can’t come up with fines big enough.
0:32:34 The algebra of deterrence is not in place.
0:32:36 The problem I see with the must thing
0:32:38 is he’s done the math.
0:32:40 Yeah, it’s illegal.
0:32:41 But they’re not, if Trump wins,
0:32:43 they’re not gonna kick him out of office
0:32:46 because of an illegal campaign tactic.
0:32:48 There is no fine big enough for Trump.
0:32:49 His lawyers, I’m sure his lawyers, he said,
0:32:50 can I go to jail for that?
0:32:52 I know, is it illegal?
0:32:53 Yeah, but can I go to jail for it?
0:32:54 No, how big will the fine be?
0:32:56 I don’t know, 10 or 59?
0:32:58 Fuck it, let’s roll, let’s roll.
0:33:00 The algebra of deterrence is also not in place
0:33:02 with very wealthy taxpayers
0:33:04 because very wealthy people
0:33:06 have very complicated tax returns.
0:33:08 And essentially because of the underfunding
0:33:10 that happened until the last year,
0:33:12 the likelihood of you getting caught is so minimal
0:33:15 that it encourages very, very wealthy people
0:33:20 to be so incredibly aggressive with their taxes
0:33:22 that the algebra of deterrence isn’t in place there.
0:33:24 And I don’t think it’s here either.
0:33:27 There are just specific parts of our economy
0:33:30 where it pays to break the law.
0:33:31 If you had a parking meter in front of your house
0:33:34 that costs 100 bucks an hour and the ticket was 25 cents,
0:33:36 you would break the law.
0:33:38 And I see this as a perfect example
0:33:39 until they actually say, all right,
0:33:41 if you blatantly violate campaign laws,
0:33:43 you can no longer spend money on media.
0:33:45 You have an injunction, you’re done.
0:33:46 You can’t spend money on media
0:33:50 or even maybe have a recall election after the fact.
0:33:54 Until that happens, why wouldn’t you break the law?
0:33:57 – Well, if you have no moral compass, yeah, 100%.
0:34:00 Sure, that’s a hard one for me.
0:34:01 I’m so afraid of everything.
0:34:05 It’s like the Jewish female guilt nervousness thing
0:34:07 that there’s no way that I’d be able to do it.
0:34:09 But I think it’s another reason
0:34:12 that the Trump campaign is benefiting
0:34:14 from this truncated schedule
0:34:16 because Musk only started doing this
0:34:18 like three, four days ago or something like that.
0:34:22 So worst case scenario, oh, I did it for two weeks.
0:34:24 It’s not like I had this plan in place
0:34:27 and I’ve been doing it for an entire year.
0:34:28 – Yeah, that’s totally different.
0:34:33 – It’s also, it’s been wildly ineffective
0:34:34 what he’s been doing.
0:34:36 And this has been a theme that we’re talking about.
0:34:40 The Guardian had a scoop over the weekend
0:34:43 that a quarter of the door knockers
0:34:46 in Arizona and Nevada for the Trump campaign,
0:34:49 so Musk is paying them, the money’s coming from him,
0:34:52 are writing fraudulent reports.
0:34:54 They’re not actually knocking on doors
0:34:55 ’cause they go back and they check,
0:34:56 like, did you hear from somebody?
0:34:58 And they just marked it off and took the money
0:35:01 and went and got some beers or whatever they’re gonna do.
0:35:03 So I continue to be heartened
0:35:07 by the Democrats’ organization on a comparative level,
0:35:09 like canvassing matters.
0:35:12 And you’re seeing all of these deeply reported pieces,
0:35:16 especially in swing districts like in Arizona and Georgia,
0:35:19 where people are talking about their interactions
0:35:22 with voters and are meeting a lot of women in particular,
0:35:23 which isn’t surprising
0:35:26 since we’re trending towards this historic gender gap.
0:35:27 People are coming to the door
0:35:30 and they’re basically saying, I’m voting for her.
0:35:31 I don’t wanna talk about it.
0:35:34 It’s not like in 2016 when everyone was so excited,
0:35:36 like, I’ve got my woman card here.
0:35:39 Like I have a 3D printed Hillary doll
0:35:41 that is in my daughter’s room now.
0:35:42 It’s really cute.
0:35:43 She goes like, that’s mama.
0:35:45 And it’s a blonde and like a blue suit.
0:35:46 So obviously it’s not mama,
0:35:48 but like there’s this excitement
0:35:50 that I still feel about her.
0:35:52 – That’s 3D printed Hillary doll.
0:35:54 – That a stranger sent to me
0:35:56 and I wasn’t even bothered
0:35:58 that he somehow knew my home address
0:36:02 because I literally came to the door
0:36:04 and I was like, should I report this
0:36:06 or just sleep with it forever?
0:36:11 And like, people used to be excited about their vote
0:36:13 in a different way than they are in this election.
0:36:16 Even if you’re enthusiastic about turning the page,
0:36:17 whatever way you’re turning it,
0:36:20 people, I’m sure you guys notice this in your lives.
0:36:24 Like it’s not as fun to talk about anymore over dinner.
0:36:26 You’re just like, it’s happening.
0:36:28 When is this going to be over?
0:36:30 – Soon enough, I hope.
0:36:33 So speaking when it’s over, early voting is kicked in.
0:36:36 Georgia received more than 600,000 votes
0:36:38 in the first days, North Carolina have massive lines
0:36:42 despite of being in some areas
0:36:46 where very hard hit by Hurricane Helene.
0:36:47 What’s your read?
0:36:50 Is this massive, is this tied a wave of early voting
0:36:53 good or bad for Democrats or Republicans?
0:36:57 – So there are two schools of thought on it.
0:37:01 I in general tend to think big turnout is better
0:37:03 for Democrats and also just better for democracy.
0:37:05 I want the most amount of, however it shakes out,
0:37:07 I would be excited if the number of people
0:37:09 that are involved in the democratic process is higher.
0:37:11 And I think that we should all feel that way.
0:37:13 But I also really want to win.
0:37:16 And the reason that I think that it’s better
0:37:19 is except in Georgia and Nevada, I think it is,
0:37:22 it’s been a higher turnout amongst women than amongst men.
0:37:24 And Republicans have been running around,
0:37:26 if you’re very into talking politics,
0:37:30 I’m sure someone has told you that Republicans now
0:37:33 have a higher number of registered voters than Democrats.
0:37:35 We hadn’t seen this trend line in decades.
0:37:38 And it happened, it came out like two weeks ago.
0:37:41 The Gallup data showed it for the first time.
0:37:44 But what they miss with that talking point is,
0:37:47 does your affiliation mean how you’re voting?
0:37:49 Was Cheney still a registered Republican?
0:37:50 – Yep.
0:37:53 – And a lot of these people are.
0:37:55 So I’m not sure it’s indicative of anything like that,
0:37:57 but the high turnout I think is net net good for us.
0:38:00 And apparently the Gen Z turnout is massive.
0:38:03 And I saw a video online today,
0:38:06 definitely, I saw this video of,
0:38:10 there’s kind of this asshole guy walking on interviewing
0:38:13 young women about why they’re voting for Kamala.
0:38:15 And the point was to make fun of them
0:38:17 because they kept talking about abortion
0:38:19 and being able to control their own bodies.
0:38:23 And I saw these Trump supporters being like,
0:38:27 you callous fools, like you think it’s all about,
0:38:29 being able to go out and sleep with whoever
0:38:32 at the sex club and then just go
0:38:34 and get an abortion. – And then order Chinese.
0:38:37 – And then order chicken with scallions,
0:38:38 which was delicious here.
0:38:43 And it’s amazing to see a piece of content
0:38:48 that means such different things to both groups.
0:38:50 So all the Republicans are dunking on it
0:38:53 and all of the Democrats or the left-leaning supporters
0:38:55 or people who just care about reproductive health
0:38:57 are saying it is a completely normal thing
0:39:01 for a 22-year-old woman to worry
0:39:03 that she’s going to have a healthcare emergency
0:39:05 and not be able to get the treatment that she needs.
0:39:12 – Noelle, the election is nigh.
0:39:13 – It sure is.
0:39:15 Can you name all the swing states?
0:39:20 – Oh, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania,
0:39:25 Georgia, and is it Virginia?
0:39:26 – It is not.
0:39:28 It’s North Carolina, but you got the others.
0:39:30 – Oh, I mean, I think it’s arguable.
0:39:31 Let’s just say I’m kind of right.
0:39:32 Let’s give me partial credit.
0:39:35 – Partial credit, it is, and we are doing episodes
0:39:37 about all seven of the real swing states.
0:39:39 – Oh, it sounds like I should listen.
0:39:40 What are we doing?
0:39:41 Like history lessons?
0:39:44 – No, the big issues, abortion, the economy,
0:39:47 election security, all of it.
0:39:50 – Okay, so you’re saying if you listen to,
0:39:54 today explains seven episodes on the seven swing states
0:39:56 between now and the election,
0:39:58 you are going to be ready for whatever comes
0:39:59 on November 5th.
0:40:00 – There you go.
0:40:02 – Today explained wherever you listen,
0:40:04 we drop in the afternoons, Monday to Friday.
0:40:10 – So let’s talk a little bit about the polls.
0:40:12 I’m curious what you make of these.
0:40:15 So far, a new general election polling
0:40:19 shows that Harris is up by four in Georgia,
0:40:22 up by two in Michigan, up by two in Pennsylvania,
0:40:24 which is sort of coming down to be
0:40:25 kind of the most important state.
0:40:26 – Definitely.
0:40:29 He has no path without it, and she needs it too,
0:40:31 but he like really needs it.
0:40:32 – It’s interesting, ’cause, well,
0:40:33 I’ll go through this in a second.
0:40:35 Wisconsin, Harris up three, Nevada,
0:40:38 Thai, North Carolina, Trump up three,
0:40:39 Arizona, Trump up three.
0:40:42 See, I read this poll, and to me it means,
0:40:44 it looks as if the edge is to Harris.
0:40:47 And if you look at all, the majority of,
0:40:49 quote unquote, really thoughtful people I know
0:40:50 are actually quite worried.
0:40:52 It feels like her momentum was arrested
0:40:55 about two weeks ago when it swung back dramatically.
0:40:56 And then if you look at the betting sites,
0:41:00 which I think would be where I would go for information,
0:41:03 but my podcast co-host on Property Markets,
0:41:04 Ed Ellison pointed out that,
0:41:07 keep in mind the people who gamble are young men
0:41:08 who are biased towards Trump.
0:41:10 And then I got an email today from my friend,
0:41:12 Michael Auerbach, saying,
0:41:16 it’s a Democrat in there spending millions on Trump
0:41:19 in hopes that it’ll convince Trumpers to stay home
0:41:20 ’cause they don’t need to show up.
0:41:25 It just is like, there’s all of this crazy kind of people
0:41:29 trying to manipulate in the role it plays.
0:41:31 When I saw these polls, I thought this is wrong
0:41:34 ’cause this feels decidedly Harris to me.
0:41:35 Any thoughts on the polls?
0:41:37 Well, this was part of the change in my mood.
0:41:40 I said I’d been like algorithm miserable
0:41:42 for the last two weeks.
0:41:44 And this morning I was like, we’re back.
0:41:50 I actually, we went to an apple farm on Saturday
0:41:54 for apple picking with our little people.
0:41:58 And I was like, there were Trump flags everywhere,
0:41:59 people out doing their thing.
0:42:02 And we passed by one Kamala Harris sign.
0:42:03 And I actually like fist pumped,
0:42:05 like I’m not a fist pumper.
0:42:08 And my husband goes, it says Kamala Harris is an idiot.
0:42:12 So, and then I remembered we’re like five minutes
0:42:14 from Bedminster, this is Trump country.
0:42:19 But I saw that, which is from a very reputable pollster.
0:42:23 And that felt more in line with the fact that
0:42:26 we know that a majority of Americans
0:42:31 have more aligned policy positions to the Harris campaign.
0:42:33 That doesn’t mean that she’s going to win,
0:42:35 but it means that she’s breaking through
0:42:36 on a lot of levels.
0:42:40 There was an AP poll out that, yeah,
0:42:44 that she is leading on a number of economic issues,
0:42:45 which is a really big deal,
0:42:46 like keeping inflation down,
0:42:48 dealing with the cost of groceries.
0:42:51 And to your point about who’s changing their mind,
0:42:56 I think is that the Emerson poll had 60 to 36 ratio
0:42:59 that people who have decided in the last month
0:43:00 are breaking for Harris.
0:43:02 So if you decided over a month ago,
0:43:05 Trump was winning that by huge margins.
0:43:06 But what she is doing,
0:43:07 and whether that’s just that she’s more
0:43:09 in the national consciousness,
0:43:10 if you’re just seeing her on the view,
0:43:12 whether you like what she said,
0:43:14 or you’re seeing her sit down with Brett Baer,
0:43:16 or you’re seeing her town halls,
0:43:20 that it’s making people feel calmer
0:43:22 about a Harris presidency,
0:43:26 which is what Brett Stevens was arguing in the times today,
0:43:28 where he said finally that he’s going to vote for her.
0:43:30 – The undecided voter has now decided?
0:43:33 – Not until, again, she was up 10 points
0:43:35 with independence in the last Fox poll.
0:43:39 – But the poll we reference as an AP poll,
0:43:41 and it shows Harris and Wall’s favorability
0:43:43 of five and 4% respectively,
0:43:46 whereas Trump and Vance are down 18 and 15%.
0:43:49 So that feels very favorable for Harris,
0:43:51 but I don’t know about you,
0:43:53 but kind of the zeitgeist I’m hearing
0:43:55 from people “in the know” pollsters
0:43:58 is that I’m really, really worried.
0:44:01 The bottom line is it just feels like it’s within.
0:44:03 – Can I ask you if you think the betting markets,
0:44:05 the stuff matters at all?
0:44:07 ‘Cause I know a lot of people that are complete truthers
0:44:09 are that the Wall Street Journal had a big expose
0:44:12 on how Polymarket is being moved.
0:44:14 I mean, your friend has an interesting counter theory,
0:44:16 but they found all of these Trumpers
0:44:18 were the ones that was pushing it,
0:44:21 ’cause now he’s up to 65% odds.
0:44:21 – I think there’s no doubt.
0:44:24 I think there’s more oxygen being taken out of the room
0:44:26 by a, I mean, you think about it,
0:44:28 betting is like the stock market,
0:44:31 and the stock market absorbs millions of points of light,
0:44:33 and it’s seen as kind of the total arbiter.
0:44:36 Whenever I go on a board, I always call the CFO,
0:44:38 ’cause the CFO is the source of truth.
0:44:39 From the market standpoint,
0:44:41 the stock price is the source of truth.
0:44:44 The CEO can talk flowery, but at the end of the day,
0:44:48 millions, the stock attempts to absorb tens of millions
0:44:51 of points of light, and then make a very no-mercy,
0:44:53 emotionalist decision with one singular thing,
0:44:56 like the aliens, the xenomorphs from aliens,
0:44:58 it’s just totally focused on killing.
0:45:01 It has no conscience, it has no morals,
0:45:03 it can’t be bargained with, and stocks are the same way.
0:45:06 They’re just, it’s people who just wanna make money.
0:45:09 And so when you see a betting market,
0:45:13 it says that it’s approximately a 60% or almost two
0:45:15 and three chance that Trump’s gonna win.
0:45:16 I think that’s great for the Trump campaign,
0:45:19 ’cause it says this unemotional arbiter
0:45:22 from people who are just focused on making money
0:45:23 think he’s gonna win.
0:45:25 And I think that creates, I think anything that creates
0:45:28 momentum that this person is likely to win
0:45:29 is good for that person.
0:45:31 Having said that, I have no idea.
0:45:33 By the way, the polls, all the gambling sites
0:45:36 were wrong in 2020.
0:45:38 They also saw–
0:45:39 – Trump winning.
0:45:40 – They also saw Trump winning.
0:45:41 And that goes back to Ed’s thesis,
0:45:44 that young men have a bias towards Trump.
0:45:47 Real quickly, do you think the death of Senwar
0:45:49 has any sort of impact on the election at this point?
0:45:54 – Well, I think it’s yet to be determined
0:45:58 on the actual voting, but it was interesting
0:45:59 to see in the last few days,
0:46:03 stories about her trouble with Arab voters in Michigan,
0:46:06 and her trouble with Jewish voters in Pennsylvania.
0:46:10 And I have a lot of friends, Josh Shapiro-Truthers,
0:46:15 who are watching him handle the Jewish holidays
0:46:19 with huge amounts of passion and inclusivity,
0:46:22 and Grace and him and his wife just seem
0:46:25 like wonderful ambassadors for the religion
0:46:28 and everything that we’re about.
0:46:32 And they’re like, I told you, Tim Walls is great.
0:46:35 These soundbites calling them weird
0:46:38 and saying mind your damn business was all well and good.
0:46:41 But that guy, the Baruch Obama of it all
0:46:43 would have been much better for us.
0:46:46 And time will tell, if we lose,
0:46:48 I’m probably gonna be pretty mad that I thought,
0:46:51 well Walls was a good choice.
0:46:54 But it does seem like there are probably
0:46:58 gonna be young people that potentially set this out
0:47:01 in Michigan, probably most of all,
0:47:04 and that there are going to be some Jews more
0:47:09 in our cohort, kind of overeducated and reading too much
0:47:12 and in their feelings about it,
0:47:17 who feel like they can’t tick the box with her,
0:47:20 but who knows, like last week’s Sinware is dead.
0:47:22 I mean, it was only like three weeks ago
0:47:24 that the beeper stuff started happening.
0:47:28 It feels like this whole thing is going at lightning pace.
0:47:30 So I don’t know what it’ll be like.
0:47:33 Do you think it’s having a real impact?
0:47:36 Well, I failed to see how it’s anything but positive
0:47:37 for the current administration
0:47:39 ’cause a feeling of chaos,
0:47:42 the existing administration pays the price for that.
0:47:45 I think their messaging around Israel has been abysmal
0:47:47 because this is the worst of both worlds.
0:47:49 Biden and Harris, I believe,
0:47:50 have actually been pretty good on Israel.
0:47:52 Whenever anyone complains about them,
0:47:56 I grew up in Los Angeles and went to UCLA.
0:47:57 I was in a Jewish fraternity.
0:47:59 The majority of my close friends from college are Jewish.
0:48:01 They’re all voting for Trump.
0:48:04 They’re just like, no, I have family there.
0:48:06 I want no milk toast bullshit around it.
0:48:07 I don’t want empathy.
0:48:12 I want someone who’s squarely behind Israel full stop.
0:48:14 And right now Trump has done a better job
0:48:15 of communicating that
0:48:18 because where Biden and Harris have really screwed up
0:48:21 is that no world leader’s been better on Israel
0:48:22 than Biden and Harris.
0:48:24 Like there was only one world leader
0:48:26 that immediately deployed two carrier strike forces
0:48:27 to the Mediterranean,
0:48:29 such that if the Iranians had any ideas
0:48:31 about starting a multi-front war,
0:48:35 he said, we got 4,500 incredibly skilled people
0:48:39 and we can deliver the violence of a big nation
0:48:40 and it’s sitting off your shore.
0:48:42 So sit the fuck down.
0:48:47 That was the most important move made outside of Israel.
0:48:49 And Americans, Biden and Harris did it.
0:48:53 But at the same time, all this bullshit wavering,
0:48:56 we’re trying for a truce.
0:48:58 I support them, but I don’t.
0:49:00 It’s like, they’ve handled it terribly
0:49:03 because they don’t get any credit for what they,
0:49:05 everybody’s angry at them.
0:49:06 Jews are angry at them.
0:49:09 Muslim Americans are angry at them.
0:49:12 So my belief was folks, you got to pick a side here
0:49:14 and trying to like thin them.
0:49:16 They just haven’t, they haven’t thread the needle here
0:49:19 and he doesn’t get, he and Vice President Harris
0:49:21 don’t get nearly the credit.
0:49:24 And just saying my husband is Jewish
0:49:28 is not a policy decision in my view.
0:49:30 So I think they’ve just handled the messaging
0:49:33 terribly around this, but I do think his death
0:49:35 can be nothing but positive
0:49:38 for the current administration or at least…
0:49:40 – Well, you would, you’re kind of weeding out.
0:49:44 When you kill a terrorist as big and as bad as Sinwar,
0:49:47 you’re able to weed out the people
0:49:50 that were never gonna be with you anyway.
0:49:53 Right, like that you had no choice of penetrating.
0:49:58 So like I did a show, I did special report on Friday
0:50:00 and we do this thing, winners and losers at the end.
0:50:04 And I had as my loser for the week, terrorists sympathizers.
0:50:09 Like these kids that are out there claiming
0:50:11 that this is about a genocide or whatever it is.
0:50:15 Like if you think in any way that a world without Sinwar
0:50:18 is problematic, there’s something problematic with you.
0:50:21 And I’m not even sure we really want your vote.
0:50:23 No, when we lose by 2000 votes,
0:50:25 I’ll probably take that back and say,
0:50:27 I would have loved to have had your support for that.
0:50:32 But I think it’s definitely a good thing that it happened
0:50:36 and it has put Netanyahu in a different light.
0:50:40 I feel he’s almost moved to being a wartime president
0:50:43 for the first time. – His popularity is surged.
0:50:45 – Yeah, but if he overplays his hand,
0:50:47 I think it was something in one of the strikes,
0:50:51 87 people in Beirut were killed,
0:50:53 innocents who were not terrorists, not involved at all.
0:50:56 You got a headline like that and people say
0:50:58 there has to be a better way to do this.
0:51:00 Now, I know on a historical level,
0:51:05 he’s still running a pinpoint accurate operation,
0:51:06 but that is compelling to people.
0:51:10 You see tiny innocent bodies blown up
0:51:12 and you think, what did they do to you?
0:51:15 – Yeah, we’ve gotten a lot of criticism online.
0:51:17 A lot of people say, you might be raging,
0:51:18 but you’re not moderates.
0:51:22 – Scott loves the comments, he’s in it all the time.
0:51:23 – Everyone’s addicted to something.
0:51:25 I’m addicted to the affirmation of strangers.
0:51:28 It’s pathetic, but I’m working on it.
0:51:31 So we wanted to do endorsements.
0:51:33 And my understanding,
0:51:35 none of this is gonna come as a surprise to anybody,
0:51:36 but my understanding is you’re not allowed
0:51:39 to do an official endorsement, is that correct?
0:51:42 – Everyone knows how I am voting, but I don’t free.
0:51:44 I am happy to talk about why Kamala Harris
0:51:46 will be the best president you’ve ever seen in your life.
0:51:48 But it’s not the same way that you’re gonna do it,
0:51:49 but do your thing.
0:51:50 And then I’ll talk my way through it.
0:51:51 – All right, I’ll go.
0:51:57 So I think a lot about young men, right?
0:51:59 So if you look globally,
0:52:01 the group that’s ascended the fastest is women.
0:52:02 It’s fantastic.
0:52:06 There are more women globally seeking tertiary education
0:52:07 now than men.
0:52:08 That’s a wonderful thing.
0:52:10 In the US, more single women on homes than single men,
0:52:13 three to two college graduates.
0:52:15 Globally, you’ve seen a doubling of the number of women
0:52:17 elected to parliament in the last 30 years.
0:52:21 We’ve never seen an ascent of a demographic globally,
0:52:23 this violent and this wonderful,
0:52:25 and that’s a collective victory for all of us.
0:52:28 And we should do nothing to get in the way of that.
0:52:31 At the same time, the group that has fallen
0:52:34 furthest the fastest in the United States is young men.
0:52:36 Four times as likely to kill themselves,
0:52:37 three times as likely to be addicted,
0:52:39 12 times as likely to be incarcerated.
0:52:42 So you have an entire cohort of young men
0:52:43 that aren’t engaging with relationships,
0:52:45 they’re not engaging with school,
0:52:47 three million able-bodied men under the age of 40
0:52:49 aren’t even seeking employment.
0:52:50 They’ve just given up on employment.
0:52:54 So they’re not engaging with work, school relationships.
0:52:59 And so I think about, and also just very strategically,
0:53:00 I think that young men
0:53:01 are some of the last swing voters left.
0:53:03 We talk about swing states,
0:53:04 it’s not swing states, it’s swing counties,
0:53:07 it’s not really swing counties, it’s swing voters.
0:53:08 And I think young men are still some
0:53:10 of the last available swing voters.
0:53:13 Specifically a lot of young men
0:53:15 are sort of like maybe gonna vote, maybe not.
0:53:18 And also they’re not as Neanderthal knuckles
0:53:21 dragging along the ground as people would think.
0:53:25 Young men actually believe in gender equality.
0:53:27 It’s whether or not they actually turn out.
0:53:30 And if Democrats don’t get a disproportionate number
0:53:31 of young people to vote for them,
0:53:32 they’re gonna lose the election.
0:53:35 So my endorsement is if you will,
0:53:37 through the lens of a young man.
0:53:39 And the way I think about it is,
0:53:42 it’s really good and important to have a code to guide you.
0:53:44 Some people get it from religion,
0:53:45 some people get it from their work,
0:53:47 some people get it from their school,
0:53:49 some people get it by joining the Marines
0:53:50 and adopting that code.
0:53:54 But I think as a young man, you need a code.
0:53:56 And I’ve been thinking a lot about masculinity.
0:53:58 And this is where some people get very uncomfortable.
0:54:01 I think masculinity can be a great code
0:54:04 in an aspirational way for young men.
0:54:05 And that is the following.
0:54:09 I think that a decent proxy for masculinity
0:54:13 is a provider, protector, and procreator.
0:54:14 And so let’s go through each of those
0:54:18 and why I think Harris would be the best candidate.
0:54:23 Provider, you can be good in a country with low growth.
0:54:24 You can be good and Britain right now,
0:54:26 but the fact that the country hasn’t grown in five years
0:54:28 ’cause of terrible economic policies,
0:54:31 it is difficult to be a good provider.
0:54:34 So you want a context where you can have a job,
0:54:36 have good economic growth,
0:54:38 and quite frankly, do well and be a provider.
0:54:40 And I think every man should start from the viewpoint
0:54:44 of I’m gonna take economic responsibility for my household.
0:54:47 And sometimes that means getting out of the way
0:54:49 of your partner who’s better at that money thing
0:54:51 than you are and being more supportive.
0:54:52 As I like to think I was,
0:54:54 as my partner was working in Goldman Sachs
0:54:57 and making a lot more money than I was at the time.
0:55:00 But I think it’s a good standpoint to start from.
0:55:02 I’m going to be an economic provider here.
0:55:04 And the reality is three quarters of women
0:55:07 say economic viability is really important in a mate.
0:55:08 It’s only one quarter for men.
0:55:11 So if you want to be taken seriously in our economy
0:55:12 and I’m not to our nation,
0:55:13 I’m not talking about what should be,
0:55:14 I’m talking about what is.
0:55:18 Young men need to aspire to be good providers.
0:55:20 You’re gonna have an easier time as a young man
0:55:24 being a provider, I believe in an economic environment
0:55:26 based on the Harris plan.
0:55:29 We have so far, if you think it’s most likely
0:55:32 gonna be a continuation of the current policies,
0:55:35 we have the lowest inflation of any G7 country
0:55:36 while having the strongest growth.
0:55:38 We are at full employment.
0:55:41 We have the lowest unemployment since 1968.
0:55:45 We have had 71 record highs in the market.
0:55:48 We have added more shareholder value
0:55:51 just with AI in this nation in the last 18 months
0:55:53 in the entire global auto industry
0:55:55 since the inception of the auto industry.
0:55:56 The fact that these algorithms
0:55:58 are trying to convince young people
0:55:59 that this economy is awful,
0:56:02 there are 190 sovereign nations in the world.
0:56:07 189 would trade places with us.
0:56:10 China has lost $3 trillion in market capitalization
0:56:12 over the last three years.
0:56:15 We’ve gained $5 trillion in the last seven.
0:56:16 This economy is on fire.
0:56:19 Now, similar to the future, it’s here, prosperity is here.
0:56:21 It’s just not evenly distributed.
0:56:22 A lot of people are struggling,
0:56:25 but unfortunately there’s this dynamic
0:56:27 where when your salary goes up 10%,
0:56:28 you think it’s your grid and character,
0:56:30 but when diapers go up 4%,
0:56:32 you blame the Harrison Biden administration.
0:56:35 This economy will be much stronger.
0:56:37 Your ability to be a good provider
0:56:42 is much more likely with Harris’s economic plan.
0:56:45 Protection should be the default setting for people,
0:56:46 and I think Democrats,
0:56:49 specifically Vice President Wallace is a great job.
0:56:52 And if we want to have more young people
0:56:55 pairing up, having sex,
0:56:56 finding relationships,
0:57:00 and having deep and meaningful families,
0:57:02 we need to encourage people
0:57:05 to connect both emotionally, mentally, and physically,
0:57:09 and women are gonna stop for good reason
0:57:11 if they maintain this type of risk,
0:57:14 if we continue down this perverted track
0:57:16 of taking bodily autonomy away from women.
0:57:19 In sum, in sum,
0:57:22 I can guarantee all young men listening to this podcast
0:57:25 that you porn is bested by your porn.
0:57:30 And my advice to you is to get out,
0:57:31 get your shit together,
0:57:33 make yourself more attracted to women,
0:57:35 more attractive to women,
0:57:37 pursue sex,
0:57:39 establish relationships,
0:57:40 and be a protector and a provider.
0:57:42 And I think all of those things
0:57:45 around a code for masculinity
0:57:48 are much better served in a Harris administration
0:57:52 than this weird, unhealthy version of the manosphere
0:57:55 that is being projected on the right.
0:57:59 So with that, I am endorsing Vice President Harris
0:58:01 and Governor Walls for President.
0:58:04 (audience applauding)
0:58:11 All right, folks, that’s it for tonight.
0:58:12 Thank you for joining us tonight.
0:58:15 And special thanks to Maxwell for hosting us.
0:58:17 Thanks, big shout out to Maxwell,
0:58:19 our producers are Caroline Chagrin and David Toledo,
0:58:22 our technical director is Drew Burroughs.
0:58:23 Please follow Raging Moderates
0:58:25 wherever you get your podcasts.
0:58:26 That’s right, Raging Moderates
0:58:28 has its very own feed.
0:58:31 One thrill, drinks on Jessica.
0:58:33 Thank you for your time.
0:58:36 (audience applauding)
0:58:41 – The number one selling product of its kind
0:58:44 with over 20 years of research and innovation,
0:58:47 Votox Cosmetic, adobatulinum toxin A,
0:58:49 is a prescription medicine used to temporarily make moderate
0:58:53 to severe frown lines, crow’s feet and forehead lines
0:58:54 look better in adults.
0:58:57 Effects of Votox Cosmetic may spread hours to weeks
0:58:59 after injection, causing serious symptoms.
0:59:01 Alert your doctor right away as difficulties swallowing,
0:59:03 speaking, breathing, eye problems or muscle weakness
0:59:05 may be a sign of a life-threatening condition.
0:59:06 Patients with these conditions
0:59:08 before injection are at highest risk.
0:59:10 Don’t receive Votox Cosmetic if you have a skin infection.
0:59:12 Side effects may include allergic reactions,
0:59:14 injection site pain, headache, eyebrow and eyelid drooping
0:59:15 and eyelid swelling.
0:59:17 Allergic reactions can include rash,
0:59:19 welts, asthma symptoms and dizziness.
0:59:20 Tell your doctor about medical history.
0:59:22 Muscular nerve conditions including ALS or Lou Gehrig’s
0:59:25 disease, myasthenia gravis or Lambert Eaton syndrome
0:59:27 and medications, including Votulinum toxins,
0:59:29 as these may increase the risk of serious side effects.
0:59:32 For full safety information, visit VotoxCosmetic.com
0:59:36 or call 877-351-0300.
0:59:39 See for yourself at VotoxCosmetic.com.
0:00:10 So, talk to your specialist to see if Botox Cosmetic is right for you.
0:00:15 For full prescribing information, including boxed warning, visit botoxcosmetic.com or
0:00:19 call 877-351-0300.
0:00:22 Remember to ask for Botox Cosmetic by name.
0:00:26 To see for yourself and learn more, visit botoxcosmetic.com.
0:00:29 That’s botoxcosmetic.com.
0:00:33 Support for this show comes from Constant Contact.
0:00:36 If you struggle just to get your customers to notice you,
0:00:40 Constant Contact has what you need to grab their attention.
0:00:45 Constant Contact’s award-winning marketing platform offers all the automation, integration,
0:00:49 and reporting tools that get your marketing running seamlessly,
0:00:53 all backed by their expert live customer support.
0:00:57 It’s time to get going and growing with Constant Contact today.
0:00:59 Ready, set, grow.
0:01:04 Go to ConstantContact.ca and start your free trial today.
0:01:08 Go to ConstantContact.ca for your free trial.
0:01:11 ConstantContact.ca.
0:01:17 -Locan-Raging Moderates, I’m Scott Galloway.
0:01:18 -And I’m Jessica Tarliff.
0:01:22 -And we are live at Maxwell in downtown New York in Tribeca.
0:01:25 [APPLAUSE]
0:01:29 Okay, enough of that. Let’s bring it back to me.
0:01:34 So, I’m pretty sure this place used to be Trapeze.
0:01:35 Do you know what Trapeze is?
0:01:36 -No.
0:01:39 -Does anyone know what Trapeze was?
0:01:40 -One person.
0:01:42 -Oh, it tended of hands going up.
0:01:45 It was a sex club at the turn of the millennium.
0:01:46 True story. True story.
0:01:50 The second woman I dated in New York said,
0:01:53 “I have a really great idea what we should do tonight.”
0:01:55 And the good news is we went to a sex club.
0:01:59 The bad news is only one of us had sex and it wasn’t me.
0:02:01 Anyways, how are you, Jess?
0:02:04 -I’m having a much more PG day than you.
0:02:05 -Yeah?
0:02:07 -I remember this as a Chinese restaurant.
0:02:10 From when I was growing up, it was China Blue.
0:02:12 -Sex club, Chinese restaurant, tomato tomorrow.
0:02:14 -I’m 20 years younger.
0:02:15 -Oh, that hurts.
0:02:16 -Sorry.
0:02:17 -That hurts. Okay.
0:02:19 All right, let’s get back to our– let’s get to why we’re here.
0:02:20 We’re breaking up.
0:02:23 All right, let’s get back to our– let’s get to why we’re here.
0:02:26 We’re breaking down tonight the final stretch
0:02:29 as we enter the home stretch in what is arguably
0:02:31 the closest election in a while, at least.
0:02:32 People will come up to you.
0:02:34 What do you say when people come up to you and say,
0:02:36 “What do you think’s gonna happen?”
0:02:37 -I get really nervous. -Yeah.
0:02:40 -Like, really sweaty, uncomfortable.
0:02:44 And a lot of that is because I have a strong sense of optimism,
0:02:47 which is might be the polyana in me.
0:02:50 And– but I don’t want to get someone else’s hopes up.
0:02:52 I also don’t want to be embarrassed on election night
0:02:54 if it gets called for Trump and I’m sitting there
0:02:55 like a complete asshole that was like,
0:02:58 “No, Kamala could win.”
0:03:02 So I say it’s unbelievably close,
0:03:05 but I still think that there is a decent likelihood
0:03:08 that one of them wins by a pretty substantial amount.
0:03:11 And that doesn’t mean Tuesday night that you know,
0:03:14 but that the tea leaves are all going in one direction.
0:03:16 Like, certain key groups are breaking one way.
0:03:19 And honestly, I think that that is the safest thing
0:03:20 for the fate of democracy.
0:03:22 Whoever wins, that it’s decisive.
0:03:25 And he’ll say whatever he’s gonna say about it,
0:03:27 but that’ll be better for us.
0:03:29 What do you say? Do people say that to you?
0:03:31 -Yeah, I have absolutely no idea.
0:03:33 But you said– you reminded me yesterday–
0:03:34 we had coffee yesterday and you said,
0:03:36 “Whatever happens, you hope it’s decisive.”
0:03:39 And I think that’s actually a really fair point.
0:03:40 So I don’t know if you saw it,
0:03:43 but Vice President Harris was on your network, Fox.
0:03:44 -I definitely saw it. -Yeah.
0:03:48 -Which 50 times. -With Brett Baer?
0:03:49 -Yeah. -Brett Baer?
0:03:50 -You really love Brett. -Yeah, I love Brett.
0:03:53 If there’s a zombie apocalypse, I’m gonna brand it.
0:03:55 But out in front of my house with a submachine gun,
0:03:57 protecting me and my family.
0:03:58 Would you fuck with Brett Baer?
0:04:01 That guy looks like he’s born to kill other people.
0:04:03 (audience laughing)
0:04:05 Not that there’s anything wrong with that, right?
0:04:09 Anyways, what did you think of the conversation
0:04:13 and kind of the one moment that he apologized for later?
0:04:15 What’s your take on it? Recognizing they pay you?
0:04:18 -Right. Everyone in the room, please recognize that.
0:04:20 That’s foundational to everything that I do.
0:04:22 And I love my job.
0:04:24 Not just saying that for the audience,
0:04:27 but it’s a ton of fun and it’s great.
0:04:30 So I went back and forth as I was watching the interview.
0:04:32 And I had some moments where I was like,
0:04:33 she totally nailed that.
0:04:36 I had some moments where I was just happy
0:04:38 that Brett was asking her the things
0:04:40 that are in the minds of lots of voters.
0:04:43 I mean, you’re thinking about such a small subsection
0:04:45 of the population who actually is undecided.
0:04:49 And I don’t know if by today, this was last Wednesday,
0:04:51 it’s probably hundreds less than it was
0:04:52 even when they filmed that interview
0:04:55 that have their minds to make up.
0:04:57 But in the aftermath of it,
0:05:00 I think that both of them kind of won
0:05:02 and that’s the point of it.
0:05:06 So for people that have been concerned about Kamala Harris
0:05:08 that she isn’t competent
0:05:09 or she doesn’t have the kind of substance
0:05:13 or the heft behind her to be able to sit down
0:05:15 and take the tough questions,
0:05:16 she proved that.
0:05:17 I mean, she didn’t waffle at all.
0:05:21 There was no laughing or kind of circuitous talking
0:05:24 which she had been, you know, pinged for before.
0:05:26 And I actually think that his style,
0:05:28 which I know is one of the commentary points about it
0:05:29 that he was interrupting her.
0:05:31 I think it helped her a lot
0:05:34 because it didn’t allow her to get lost in herself.
0:05:38 He kept redirecting her to the topic at hand.
0:05:40 I thought she did well on that enemy within question.
0:05:42 And also talking about her proposals.
0:05:45 I mean, that’s one of the big issues
0:05:47 that I think the media has with this race.
0:05:49 And I mean, the media writ large
0:05:52 is the double standard in terms of specificity
0:05:54 that they say, well, Donald Trump’s answering these questions.
0:05:56 Like, I don’t know if you guys saw,
0:05:58 but he was with the Wall Street Journal editorial board
0:06:01 and they said, you know, his acuity has never been better
0:06:04 and he’s offering all these specific policy positions.
0:06:06 And I’m like, I listened to the guy talk
0:06:09 about Arnold Palmer’s junk on Saturday night.
0:06:11 Like, this is not what’s going on here.
0:06:13 – I ordered a stiff Arnold Palmer,
0:06:15 and Jack’s like, for you, thinking it was hilarious.
0:06:17 And the guy’s like, we don’t do that.
0:06:19 – You got the wrong sex club.
0:06:20 – Yeah.
0:06:23 – So, see, it came back to you.
0:06:26 – Yeah, I love chow man with that.
0:06:28 – Did you, what did you think about it?
0:06:30 – I’m so triggered by it.
0:06:32 I have trouble watching.
0:06:34 I don’t think she’s great on her feet.
0:06:36 So whenever I watch her live,
0:06:38 I just get very stressed out.
0:06:41 I thought, I thought they did a reasonable job.
0:06:43 I think it’s good that she’s there.
0:06:45 And like you said, I think you described it perfectly.
0:06:46 I think it was a win for Brett,
0:06:50 a win for Fox, and a win for her just by being there.
0:06:51 So at this point though,
0:06:53 I don’t know anyone who’s watching Fox,
0:06:55 who’s probably undecided.
0:06:58 Although you pointed out something I had not considered,
0:07:00 because I love CNN and I go on Fox,
0:07:01 but I don’t love it as much.
0:07:03 I’ll just leave it at that.
0:07:07 But you pointed out that actually Fox has more moderates
0:07:12 watching than CNN, which was really striking to me.
0:07:14 – Yeah, it’s, I think the breakdown,
0:07:17 and now I’ll do a plug for the five.
0:07:18 This will surprise you,
0:07:23 but 22% now of the five viewership are Democrats,
0:07:28 38% are independents, and the rest are Republicans.
0:07:33 And the way that the cable news eco-sphere has shaped out
0:07:38 kind of in the Trump era is that if you are looking
0:07:42 to watch something that isn’t just 24 hours, I hate Trump,
0:07:44 you are tuning in to Fox at this point.
0:07:46 Now you might have your hosts that you like better,
0:07:50 you might not be tuning in for the primetime programming,
0:07:54 but you can see people from both parties being interviewed.
0:07:59 And I think, I mean, this argument is sometimes
0:08:03 a tough sell, but when you hear opposition voices
0:08:06 on other networks and they’re never Trump Republicans,
0:08:09 you aren’t necessarily getting a real look
0:08:11 at what’s going on in politics today.
0:08:13 I love a lot of these people like,
0:08:15 I love Alyssa Farah Griffin, who’s on the view
0:08:16 and is on CNN.
0:08:18 Where Alyssa Farah Griffin is,
0:08:20 is not where the majority of Republicans are.
0:08:22 Liz Cheney, God love her,
0:08:24 maybe she delivers us the election.
0:08:27 I don’t know, but the way Liz Cheney thinks about the world
0:08:30 is not the way the average Republican does.
0:08:31 – But along those lines,
0:08:33 so Vice President Harris has been campaigning
0:08:36 with a lot of Republicans in Pennsylvania.
0:08:38 There’s, you know, Adam Kitzinger,
0:08:40 Barbara Comstock was Cheney.
0:08:43 Do you think that’s effective or are they seen as,
0:08:47 so what I find online is that Republicans just write me off,
0:08:49 like whatever, he’s a libtard, right?
0:08:51 I’m used to that.
0:08:54 What I find is where I get the most vicious attacks though,
0:08:55 it’s from the far left,
0:08:57 ’cause they treat me like an apostate.
0:08:59 Like we thought we could trust you.
0:09:00 – Right.
0:09:02 – But actually, there’s no room for moderates,
0:09:03 is what I find online.
0:09:06 You’re either, and I find the far left quite frankly,
0:09:08 at least for center left,
0:09:11 is much more unforgiving than the far right.
0:09:12 They just write you off.
0:09:14 The far left acts like you’re a traitor.
0:09:15 If you don’t sign up for the cult
0:09:18 and the exact narrative they want you to buy into.
0:09:21 And I wonder if, in fact,
0:09:25 these people are seen as apostates and don’t help at all.
0:09:28 That they actually, oh, no wonder they’re with her,
0:09:29 they’re traitors.
0:09:32 I just don’t know.
0:09:33 I don’t know if it moves the needle at all.
0:09:35 You would logically think Republicans coming out
0:09:38 and favor her, but the Republicans coming out
0:09:40 are the ones that kind of what I’ll call
0:09:45 the Maga Republicans just think are the establishment
0:09:46 and no better than Democrats.
0:09:48 Fair?
0:09:50 – It is fair, and also I think
0:09:52 a little more complicated than that.
0:09:55 So the latest polling out of Pennsylvania,
0:09:57 for instance, shows that 12% of Republican voters
0:10:00 are supporting Kamala Harris,
0:10:02 which could be determinative, if you think that.
0:10:04 – Do you know what it was for past elections?
0:10:05 I need a benchmark for that.
0:10:07 Is that low or high?
0:10:08 – Oh, it’s really high.
0:10:11 Sorry, did my voice not intimate that that was a good thing?
0:10:12 – Yeah, that’s a big thing.
0:10:12 – Okay.
0:10:13 – That’s a big thing.
0:10:14 – In really positive news.
0:10:18 And I think it’s something like upwards of 30%
0:10:19 of Nikki Haley’s primary voters
0:10:21 have said they’re going to back Harris.
0:10:22 Like that’s across the country.
0:10:24 So that’s going to be popping up in North Carolina.
0:10:26 It’s going to be popping up in Georgia.
0:10:31 And I think what Kamala has been able to do
0:10:33 that it seems like has the most chance of being effective
0:10:36 is she’s siloing her different campaigns.
0:10:41 So she has a campaign for disaffected Republicans
0:10:43 who pro-democracy Republicans,
0:10:45 which you can have that conversation with Liz Cheney.
0:10:49 Then she is having a conversation with minority voters.
0:10:51 Like last week was the tour of that,
0:10:54 the Charlemagne the God Town Hall, all of that.
0:10:57 She is having a campaign that is just for women,
0:10:59 talking about reproductive freedom
0:11:03 and mind your damn business as Tim Walls was saying.
0:11:06 And I know that that makes some people uncomfortable.
0:11:07 And we’ve talked to this,
0:11:09 like you don’t like identity politics.
0:11:10 I think it’s a necessary evil.
0:11:12 – You might be right, yeah.
0:11:13 – And if you’re going to show up
0:11:16 and you’re going to talk to a room full of X group,
0:11:18 you better have something specific to tell them
0:11:21 about how their life is going to be better
0:11:22 when you’re president.
0:11:24 So let’s shift gears to Trump.
0:11:26 He’s been serving fries.
0:11:26 – Yeah.
0:11:29 – He’s at, well, first up,
0:11:31 did you ever work at a fast food restaurant?
0:11:34 – No, I was a hostess and I fainted the first day
0:11:35 from the stress of it.
0:11:36 It was so embarrassing.
0:11:37 My mom is here.
0:11:39 My dad has to come pick me up.
0:11:40 – That’s a stressful job.
0:11:41 – Thank you.
0:11:42 – Like trying to assess the landscape
0:11:44 and where does it go on table?
0:11:46 – Like plugging in the orders
0:11:47 and when people have a modification.
0:11:49 – I get nervous just thinking about it.
0:11:50 – Did you do fast food?
0:11:51 – You fainted?
0:11:52 – I did.
0:11:53 I was, it’s a long story.
0:11:57 I had had, I had gotten sick in Mexico,
0:12:00 like a week and a half before I was low on Gatorade,
0:12:03 but it was also very stressful on top of it.
0:12:06 It’s not a good story.
0:12:06 I shouldn’t have said it.
0:12:07 – I’m more responsible.
0:12:10 So I was a bus boy at dishwasher
0:12:11 at a place called islands.
0:12:13 I delivered pizzas for this place
0:12:16 called the pizza joint in Beverly Hills.
0:12:18 I did a lot of services work.
0:12:19 I think it should be mandatory for every kid
0:12:21 to do some sort of services work.
0:12:25 I think it builds character, makes you less of an asshole.
0:12:27 I’m a huge fan of service work.
0:12:29 Anyways, not for the president.
0:12:31 I don’t think that makes a lot of sense.
0:12:35 And so Fox News Women’s Town Hall,
0:12:38 which we found out was full of Trump supporters.
0:12:39 How did you think that went?
0:12:43 – So again, and this is where I wonder,
0:12:45 and if we want to talk about Elon Musk,
0:12:46 it comes back to this.
0:12:47 I feel more intense than-
0:12:49 – By the way, he’s a tech executive.
0:12:50 (audience laughing)
0:12:52 – That’s Scott and Kara really like.
0:12:55 – Yeah, you know, he’s wealthy
0:12:57 and he’s, anyway, I’m sorry, go ahead.
0:13:00 – I feel that my algorithm has done more damage
0:13:03 to my mental health in the last two weeks
0:13:06 than it has the entirety of my time on Twitter.
0:13:08 – That’s called Instagram.
0:13:09 – I could do that.
0:13:10 I need to go other places.
0:13:12 – Why is that, say more.
0:13:15 – Whether Musk, I don’t know exactly how it’s working
0:13:17 and this does coincide with him dumping
0:13:19 even more and more money into it.
0:13:23 I feel like I am not seeing any good stuff
0:13:25 for the Democrats and I am only seeing
0:13:27 incredibly positive stuff for Trump.
0:13:29 I see some heads nodding out there
0:13:31 and I don’t know, I’m not a conspiracy theorist,
0:13:33 I’m not saying that all the engineers there
0:13:37 are out to get me and to ruin the five o’clock show
0:13:39 to have no opposition, but I, at first,
0:13:41 saw only kind of positive things for him
0:13:43 out of the town hall and then I went looking for it
0:13:47 and then I saw that on certain grounds,
0:13:50 you could say it was an abject disaster for him,
0:13:52 that you had Republican women saying,
0:13:54 why do you think the government should have anything
0:13:55 to do with my basic rights?
0:13:57 And then he just bragged again.
0:13:58 – That I’m the father of IVF.
0:14:01 – The father of IVF, which is unclear.
0:14:03 I love that he said that and then he admitted
0:14:06 he had to ask Katie Britt what it was.
0:14:10 And then he was like, oh yeah, definitely the father of that.
0:14:13 – My sense is the stuff that’s trying to embarrass him,
0:14:17 when he calls Kamala, Vice President Harris,
0:14:22 a shitty VP, when he has these Ave Maria moments,
0:14:27 I think that actually helps him
0:14:29 because we’re all talking about it
0:14:32 and we want to get our sensors up and we want reasons
0:14:35 to be angry and talk about what an idiot is.
0:14:39 And the issue is the people whose sensors that tickles,
0:14:41 we’re already decided.
0:14:45 And the problem is that as that takes up oxygen in the room,
0:14:47 as opposed to talking about real issues
0:14:49 that might actually change voters’ minds,
0:14:54 such as if these proposed tariffs ever become a reality
0:14:58 and there’s anything in congruence
0:14:59 with what he’s trying to do with immigration,
0:15:01 both legal and anti-illegal,
0:15:02 that is literally a peanut butter
0:15:05 and chocolate combination for runaway inflation.
0:15:08 To me, that’s the thing we should be talking about right now,
0:15:10 not what an idiot he is or how ridiculous.
0:15:14 We know that, we get it, we’ve been there, right?
0:15:16 We saw it with Biden, right?
0:15:17 Now we’re seeing it with him, right?
0:15:21 He’s adult, but instead, but all of this stuff,
0:15:25 I think they like it when folks like us or CNN
0:15:27 or whoever it is or the algorithms
0:15:28 are serving up all these ridiculous moments
0:15:31 ’cause the people who like them, they don’t care.
0:15:35 They know they’re in on that, whatever, right?
0:15:37 And it makes us feel good,
0:15:39 but any of the real issues just get squeezed out
0:15:43 that might squeeze out or that might attract swing voters.
0:15:47 I just think it’s a strategy and we’re being played,
0:15:49 talking about the stupid shit he does
0:15:52 and how ridiculous he is, we already know that,
0:15:54 but it crowds out anything resembling a conversation
0:15:58 that I think swing voters wanna talk about.
0:16:01 The deficit would go up, his proposed economic plan,
0:16:04 the deficit would be triple what it is
0:16:09 under the proposed economic plan of Harris.
0:16:11 That is effectively, effectively
0:16:14 the biggest tax increase in history on young people
0:16:16 ’cause I won’t be here to pay back that debt.
0:16:19 I’ll get the champagne and cocaine that that will create.
0:16:20 I’ll get the stimulus for it.
0:16:23 It’ll prop up my assets, which I already own,
0:16:26 but effectively the largest tax increase in history
0:16:29 on young people is being proposed by an economic plan
0:16:31 that’ll massively explode our deficit
0:16:33 ’cause we have enough credit worthiness
0:16:36 to pay it back for 20 or 30 years, we’ll be fine,
0:16:39 but when shit gets real in 20 or 30 years,
0:16:40 it’s gonna be really ugly.
0:16:41 I think that’s a real issue.
0:16:43 If I was a young person, I’d wanna know, wait,
0:16:46 that’s about to be the largest tax increase in history on me,
0:16:48 but we don’t get time to talk about this stuff
0:16:51 ’cause we’re talking about fucking Ave Maria.
0:16:53 Back to you.
0:16:54 (audience laughing)
0:16:57 – Well, I would say, and obviously I have
0:17:01 a little bit of a strange job in the main scheme of things,
0:17:05 but you only get, if you’re gonna push back on something,
0:17:07 even if you’re having a discussion with a friend,
0:17:08 you only get a finite amount of time
0:17:11 to actually make an impact on their thinking.
0:17:15 And what Ave Maria does, or Arnold Palmer,
0:17:18 or the late great Hannibal Lecter,
0:17:20 whoever we’re talking to that,
0:17:23 you got stuck for at least 30 seconds
0:17:26 in this hellscape where someone is telling you,
0:17:28 but he’s funny, right?
0:17:29 Or we like that he has a sense of humor,
0:17:31 he doesn’t take himself that seriously,
0:17:34 which I like in a person, generally.
0:17:36 I mean, I’m big enough to admit that there are moments
0:17:39 where Donald Trump is wildly charming.
0:17:41 I thought that the hour that he did
0:17:43 on my colleague Greg Guttfeld’s show,
0:17:46 if you didn’t see it, was a side of him
0:17:48 that I totally get why voters are into.
0:17:50 He wasn’t combative at all
0:17:52 because he was with people who like him,
0:17:55 and he was talking about what it’s like to go on Johnny Carson
0:17:58 and like to party at Studio 54.
0:18:02 You know, I went to see The Apprentice over the weekend,
0:18:04 which I have many thoughts about,
0:18:05 but part of it that was awesome
0:18:10 was seeing Donald Trump opening up these incredible buildings
0:18:11 all across New York City,
0:18:13 and how he navigated all of that.
0:18:15 And like, I can see the appeal of it.
0:18:19 So if you get lost, if you spent 30 seconds to 60 seconds
0:18:23 dealing with, we’re talking about a commander in chief,
0:18:24 we’re not talking about someone
0:18:26 that you wanna go out and have a drink with,
0:18:28 then you do lose people’s attention
0:18:31 to get back to them with the ammo of,
0:18:34 why do you not care that a deportation force
0:18:37 is gonna cause inflation like we’ve never seen?
0:18:39 Or do you not care about the deficit?
0:18:42 Or Kamala Harris actually has a plan
0:18:43 for your aging mother,
0:18:46 who might have to die in a hospital
0:18:47 versus being able to die at home.
0:18:48 We were talking about that last week.
0:18:53 It’s by far and away the best policy of either campaign
0:18:55 to have Medicare cover that.
0:18:58 And she can’t get a word in edgewise about it
0:19:00 because she’s on the defensive constantly.
0:19:06 – Fox Creative.
0:19:09 – This is “Apertizer Content” from Virgin Atlantic.
0:19:10 (beeping)
0:19:11 – Hey, Kara, it’s Scott.
0:19:14 Remember me, the guy, Tina Fade, your Alec Baldwin,
0:19:16 sort of rejuvenated your career.
0:19:17 And he was, I’m at the lounge at Heathrow.
0:19:19 I’m at the Leathrow, the Virgin Lounge,
0:19:21 the Virgin Atlantic Clubhouse Lounge.
0:19:24 And I’m about to have the chicken tikka masala.
0:19:25 I love it here.
0:19:26 You should check it out.
0:19:27 It’s where the cool kids hang out.
0:19:30 Anyways, hope you’re all safe travels.
0:19:32 – Scott, frankly, it’s a miracle that Virgin Atlantic
0:19:33 let you into the clubhouse
0:19:35 and their incredible business class.
0:19:36 But I guess they did.
0:19:38 Tell me how it was.
0:19:40 – So, Kara, I’m an original gangster
0:19:41 when it comes to Virgin.
0:19:45 I’ve been flying Virgin for 20 plus years.
0:19:47 And I do the same thing.
0:19:49 And they get it right every time.
0:19:51 They always have the financial times for me.
0:19:53 And I order the chicken tikka masala.
0:19:57 And that is my Virgin experience.
0:19:58 If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
0:20:01 – And your drink was, what is your drink?
0:20:03 – Well, I used to drink a Bloody Mary
0:20:05 or a beer in the clubhouse.
0:20:08 I started, I don’t drink alcohol when I travel anymore.
0:20:09 So I just do mineral water,
0:20:11 but they have this kind of cool cocktail
0:20:13 that’s like a lemongrass
0:20:15 or some sort of cool margarita thing.
0:20:16 And I get a Virgin one.
0:20:18 – What is your pre-flight routine?
0:20:20 What is your actual, besides your chicken tikka masala,
0:20:22 the Virgin clubhouse?
0:20:24 – My pre-flight routine is,
0:20:26 well, I always do the same thing the morning when I travel.
0:20:27 I try and work out.
0:20:28 I take the dogs for a walk.
0:20:30 And I always make time for the clubhouse
0:20:32 ’cause I do enjoy the Virgin clubhouse at Heathrow.
0:20:35 So check out virginatlantic.com for your next trip
0:20:37 and see the world differently.
0:20:38 Certain amenities are only available
0:20:40 in selected cabins and aircraft.
0:20:46 Support for this episode is brought to you by Express VPN.
0:20:48 These days, it can sometimes feel like
0:20:50 the only time your eyes aren’t locked into a screen
0:20:52 is the time you’re laying in bed.
0:20:53 And even that might be a stretch.
0:20:54 But all that time logged on
0:20:58 could lead to your data being tracked and possibly sold.
0:20:59 If you want to limit who exactly
0:21:01 can access your personal data,
0:21:04 you might want to check out Express VPN.
0:21:06 With Express VPN on your device,
0:21:07 you can hide your IP address,
0:21:10 making your data harder to trace and sell to advertisers.
0:21:12 But also, according to the company,
0:21:15 Express VPN equips 100% of your internet data
0:21:17 to help you keep you safe from hackers
0:21:18 and eavesdroppers on your network.
0:21:21 Plus, Express VPN is easy to use.
0:21:23 You can download the app on your phone or computer
0:21:25 with the tap of one button.
0:21:26 I can tell you personally
0:21:28 that I have used Express VPN for several years.
0:21:30 It’s easy interface, cool to use,
0:21:32 static part of my technology life.
0:21:35 So if you want to keep your personal data personal,
0:21:37 you can better protect yourself with a VPN designed
0:21:38 to keep you safer online.
0:21:41 Protect your online privacy today
0:21:44 by visiting expressvpn.com/propg.
0:21:47 That’s E-X-P-R-E-S-S,
0:21:49 vpn.com/propg
0:21:54 and get an extra three months free, expressvpn.com/propg.
0:21:57 This week on PropG Markets,
0:21:58 we speak with Alice Hahn,
0:22:01 China Economist and Director at GreenMantle.
0:22:04 We discuss the impacts of China’s stimulus plan,
0:22:06 the threat of a war with Taiwan
0:22:08 and the likelihood that China and the US
0:22:09 will fix their relationship.
0:22:12 You look at middle America that’s been carved out,
0:22:15 jobs that have effectively gone towards China
0:22:17 and other cheaper markets around the world
0:22:19 and you were left with, you know,
0:22:21 industries that have been hollowed out,
0:22:23 you only need to look at Detroit to see that.
0:22:25 And so you’ve got this political backlash
0:22:28 that has been aimed fully and squarely at China
0:22:29 and it’s a backlash that is politically
0:22:31 and economically motivated.
0:22:33 – You can find that conversation and many others
0:22:36 exclusively on the PropG Markets podcast.
0:22:40 – What did you think?
0:22:44 It felt like JD Van sort of tried to answer the question,
0:22:46 he gets over and over, do you believe
0:22:48 that Biden was fairly elected?
0:22:50 What did you think of his response?
0:22:53 – He’s very slick, he’s very good.
0:22:57 I think, I said today, like, of the four people
0:23:00 that are, you know, the presidential candidates
0:23:03 and the VP’s, I think he’s arguably the smartest
0:23:06 and the best debater of all of them.
0:23:07 – Absolutely, I think he’s brilliant.
0:23:12 – And I think it’s a fine word salad of the thing.
0:23:14 But again, to the point about Liz Cheney,
0:23:17 for the voters who need someone to say,
0:23:19 Donald Trump lost the election
0:23:21 and then he tried to overturn the result,
0:23:23 nothing he says is ever gonna be good enough,
0:23:26 but it gives this kind of 20 to 30%
0:23:33 who know better but want you to keep soothing them that way.
0:23:36 And I just wonder also, how does that conversation go?
0:23:39 Like, do you think Donald Trump ever explicitly said to him,
0:23:42 you may never contradict me on this
0:23:45 or it’s just implied of the top lieutenants
0:23:48 that you can never seem normal about it?
0:23:51 Because I bet, honestly, if JD Vance even broke a little bit,
0:23:53 that it could bring some voters back into the fold
0:23:56 because is Trump gonna finish his term?
0:24:00 I don’t know, he doesn’t seem that mentally well,
0:24:03 he’s exhausted, he’s talking about it now.
0:24:05 So I think people would find JD Vance more palatable
0:24:08 if they knew that he was a little bit more normal.
0:24:10 – Yeah, there’s sort of the issues we talk about
0:24:11 and a lot of them I think are more, again,
0:24:13 just to there to tickle our senses
0:24:14 instead of the real issues.
0:24:16 I think the most important person in this race
0:24:19 that we don’t talk about is a guy named Peter Thiel.
0:24:22 And essentially Peter Thiel is kind of,
0:24:23 everyone’s obsessed with Elon Musk,
0:24:27 Peter Thiel is the power player that no one talks about.
0:24:32 And that is essentially Senator Vance served in the Marines
0:24:34 and he should be honored for that and respected for it,
0:24:35 wrote a wonderful book.
0:24:37 I think it’s a, that is a brilliant book.
0:24:40 He is a very intelligent man.
0:24:42 He had a mediocre career as a venture capitalist
0:24:44 and that’s being generous.
0:24:47 And then a billionaire found him
0:24:50 and essentially got him elected as Senator
0:24:53 and is now the man behind him ascending.
0:24:56 Kind of, I think the deal is something like this,
0:24:57 we’ll give your campaign a lot of money.
0:25:00 I know how to game social media.
0:25:01 This is going to be your VP.
0:25:05 And the thing about a democracy,
0:25:06 and there’s a lot of studies showing
0:25:08 that it works better than autocracies,
0:25:09 is checks and balances.
0:25:11 The reason why we have a lot of this in transagents,
0:25:12 three branches of government,
0:25:14 555 people who don’t get along,
0:25:17 is we don’t make stupid decisions really quickly.
0:25:18 There’s a wisdom of crowds.
0:25:20 There is a wisdom of democracy.
0:25:23 And if Trump wins, there’s a one,
0:25:24 if you look at actuarial tables,
0:25:27 right, a 70 year old obese man,
0:25:28 over the next four and a half years
0:25:31 has a one in three chance of dying.
0:25:33 That means we are very actually,
0:25:35 right now, if you believe the edges to Trump,
0:25:37 which I do, I don’t want to believe that,
0:25:39 but I do believe it’s gone to head.
0:25:41 Yeah, I think he’s got the edge right now.
0:25:44 That means you have a guy who is essentially,
0:25:46 I don’t want to say owned,
0:25:49 but Senator, Vice President,
0:25:51 and potentially President Vance,
0:25:54 will never utter one word to Peter Thiel,
0:25:55 and that word is no.
0:25:58 He is there because of Peter Thiel.
0:26:00 So you’re about to have the most powerful person
0:26:03 on top of the most powerful nation,
0:26:05 the biggest military,
0:26:07 and the largest economy on the world,
0:26:10 is the guy who’s going to have all the power cry, frankly,
0:26:13 is the guy most Americans have never heard of,
0:26:14 and we never talk about it.
0:26:16 And I think if the Democrats were better,
0:26:18 and better messaging,
0:26:20 they would talk more about Peter Thiel and say,
0:26:21 this guy’s going to run the country.
0:26:23 Are you down with that?
0:26:26 One of the components of a democracy
0:26:28 is there are a lot of people with a lot of power.
0:26:30 This guy is literally going to be the guy
0:26:32 who made the president.
0:26:35 And I was trying to think throughout political history,
0:26:37 if there’s ever been an individual
0:26:41 who would have the kind of power that’s not elected,
0:26:42 maybe Rupert Murdoch,
0:26:47 I don’t know, that Thiel’s going to have if they win.
0:26:49 Well, I think an interesting comp,
0:26:54 and it shows that this would have been possible
0:26:55 without such a truncated campaign.
0:26:57 I mean, you have to remember that this,
0:26:59 she only got four months to do this.
0:27:02 So a lot of the groundwork that would have been laid
0:27:04 would have come earlier.
0:27:07 But in just eight to 10 weeks,
0:27:10 the Democrats have managed to completely socialize
0:27:12 Project 2025 and the Heritage Foundation
0:27:17 and get it up to like an 80% negativity perspective
0:27:18 or whatever the right way is to say,
0:27:21 people know what Project 2025 is and they hate it.
0:27:22 Whatever aspect they’re looking at,
0:27:24 like if you’re in the reproductive rights angle,
0:27:26 I mean, you’ve seen the porn industry
0:27:29 is taking out ads against Project 2025
0:27:32 because that’s something that would be banned.
0:27:37 You have, we interviewed Larry Hogan a few weeks ago
0:27:41 and he hates Project 2025 because of the number
0:27:43 of bureaucrats that are going to get laid off
0:27:44 because of it, because in Maryland,
0:27:48 what most people do, they work in the government.
0:27:49 You think there could have been a way
0:27:52 to have an anti-Peter Thiel campaign
0:27:54 and you could have turned him into
0:27:58 the human Project 2025, right, to talk about that.
0:27:59 But it was a missed opportunity
0:28:01 and there was something that came out over the weekend.
0:28:05 I forget what article it was,
0:28:08 but it said that Democrats really missed an opportunity
0:28:12 by excluding Elon Musk from the fold.
0:28:13 And I wanted to ask you about it,
0:28:17 that we could have taken him in
0:28:20 and told him all the stuff that is true,
0:28:23 like you launch rockets, we all drive your cars,
0:28:26 you get Starlink to people from everywhere,
0:28:29 from North Carolina to Ukraine to Estonia.
0:28:30 We want you on our team.
0:28:34 And because he is the island of the misfit toys,
0:28:36 he took the rejection of that
0:28:39 from when he first started doing interviews
0:28:43 and talking about threats to the First Amendment, et cetera.
0:28:44 And we kind of banished him.
0:28:47 And now we’re paying the price for it.
0:28:50 I mean, what is he spending like a million dollars a day
0:28:52 or something on recruiting people
0:28:54 or getting people to sign up to vote,
0:28:55 the get out the vote effort that he’s funding.
0:28:59 And do you think we should have held him tight?
0:29:01 – So the, I hate to admit this,
0:29:03 ’cause I think it’s a terrible role model for young men,
0:29:07 but there are millions, if not tens of millions of people
0:29:09 who think he’s the most impressive person on the planet.
0:29:11 And you can empathize with that.
0:29:13 And I think one of the biggest strategic errors
0:29:18 if you go back in time was Biden had an EV summit
0:29:20 and didn’t invite Musk.
0:29:22 And that was just fucking stupid.
0:29:23 – That’s so weird.
0:29:25 – That’s just basically saying,
0:29:27 I mean, Tesla has inspired the EV race.
0:29:29 It’s a great American company.
0:29:31 It’s created a ton of shareholder value.
0:29:34 And to have an EV summit and just bring,
0:29:36 you know, the CEO of the Pontiac Leaf,
0:29:40 it’s just, okay, what you’re saying is that’s a big,
0:29:43 you’re sticking up the middle finger deal on Musk.
0:29:45 And I don’t think he’s ever forgiven them for that.
0:29:46 – Why would you?
0:29:48 I mean, you never would.
0:29:49 – Oh.
0:29:51 – No, I don’t want, you’re a far better man.
0:29:53 – No, no, no, no, no.
0:29:56 I hold grudges for much less than that.
0:30:00 But, and then when you see this projectile,
0:30:04 it has 16 stories crashing and barreling towards Earth.
0:30:07 And then it ignites and somehow gets caught
0:30:09 by a metal contraption.
0:30:10 I look at that and I’m like, yeah,
0:30:12 I’ll vote for whoever that guy’s voting for.
0:30:14 I mean, the reality is that she’s just really,
0:30:15 really impressive.
0:30:19 And I think they massively screwed up alienating him.
0:30:22 Now, to the extent, so let’s use that as a bridge
0:30:24 to he is now giving a million dollars a day,
0:30:27 I think in a lottery for if you get someone
0:30:28 to register to vote.
0:30:31 And my understanding is legal scholars
0:30:34 have pretty much weighed in and have said,
0:30:36 it’s not only deeply concerning,
0:30:38 but I’ve seen things highlighted that said bottom line is,
0:30:42 it’s a violation of campaign election laws and it’s illegal.
0:30:44 But here’s the problem.
0:30:47 And that is the algebra of deterrence is not in place.
0:30:50 What is the algebra of deterrence?
0:30:52 The majority of us will never commit a crime,
0:30:53 one ’cause we like to think we’re good people
0:30:54 and good citizens,
0:30:56 but I would argue the algebra of deterrence
0:30:57 is why we don’t commit crimes.
0:30:59 And the algebra is very straightforward.
0:31:00 It’s the likelihood you get caught
0:31:02 times the penalty has to be greater
0:31:04 than the potential upside.
0:31:07 So I have access to inside information occasionally, right?
0:31:09 Serving on boards and shit like that.
0:31:11 I would like to make a lot of money.
0:31:12 I could talk myself, I don’t think,
0:31:15 but I could see how people could rationalize
0:31:18 a way to make money with insider trading.
0:31:21 But if you’re a straight white guy on a board
0:31:25 and you’re caught trading on insider information,
0:31:27 you could go to jail for a very long time.
0:31:29 The upside’s just not worth it.
0:31:30 The likelihood you get caught
0:31:32 in a digital age is pretty high.
0:31:35 The likelihood based on your background,
0:31:37 if you’re that privileged to be on a board,
0:31:39 that they’re not gonna show you any sort of leniency
0:31:41 and you end up in jail and the Southern District
0:31:43 comes after you full-throated.
0:31:44 I think a lot of people do that math and go,
0:31:47 no, I’ll make sure that I’m not trading in stocks
0:31:49 where I have non-material insider information.
0:31:51 The algebra of deterrence is in place.
0:31:54 It is not in place in some key areas in our economy.
0:31:57 I can have information that 15-year-old girls
0:32:01 are cutting themselves and are suitably more depressed
0:32:03 and engaging in self-harm.
0:32:05 And I can see that information and I can cover it up
0:32:08 and I can lie about it because if I get fined,
0:32:11 or if someone says you violated your consent decree,
0:32:15 the fine might be 11 weeks of free cash flow.
0:32:16 So the algebra of deterrence is not in place
0:32:18 in what is the largest sector in our economy
0:32:19 and not as a tax sector.
0:32:21 Until someone shows up in an orange suit,
0:32:24 an orange suit, when we find out they knew
0:32:26 that their products were damaging young women
0:32:29 or girls specifically or that they were radicalizing
0:32:30 young men, nothing’s gonna happen
0:32:32 because we can’t come up with fines big enough.
0:32:34 The algebra of deterrence is not in place.
0:32:36 The problem I see with the must thing
0:32:38 is he’s done the math.
0:32:40 Yeah, it’s illegal.
0:32:41 But they’re not, if Trump wins,
0:32:43 they’re not gonna kick him out of office
0:32:46 because of an illegal campaign tactic.
0:32:48 There is no fine big enough for Trump.
0:32:49 His lawyers, I’m sure his lawyers, he said,
0:32:50 can I go to jail for that?
0:32:52 I know, is it illegal?
0:32:53 Yeah, but can I go to jail for it?
0:32:54 No, how big will the fine be?
0:32:56 I don’t know, 10 or 59?
0:32:58 Fuck it, let’s roll, let’s roll.
0:33:00 The algebra of deterrence is also not in place
0:33:02 with very wealthy taxpayers
0:33:04 because very wealthy people
0:33:06 have very complicated tax returns.
0:33:08 And essentially because of the underfunding
0:33:10 that happened until the last year,
0:33:12 the likelihood of you getting caught is so minimal
0:33:15 that it encourages very, very wealthy people
0:33:20 to be so incredibly aggressive with their taxes
0:33:22 that the algebra of deterrence isn’t in place there.
0:33:24 And I don’t think it’s here either.
0:33:27 There are just specific parts of our economy
0:33:30 where it pays to break the law.
0:33:31 If you had a parking meter in front of your house
0:33:34 that costs 100 bucks an hour and the ticket was 25 cents,
0:33:36 you would break the law.
0:33:38 And I see this as a perfect example
0:33:39 until they actually say, all right,
0:33:41 if you blatantly violate campaign laws,
0:33:43 you can no longer spend money on media.
0:33:45 You have an injunction, you’re done.
0:33:46 You can’t spend money on media
0:33:50 or even maybe have a recall election after the fact.
0:33:54 Until that happens, why wouldn’t you break the law?
0:33:57 – Well, if you have no moral compass, yeah, 100%.
0:34:00 Sure, that’s a hard one for me.
0:34:01 I’m so afraid of everything.
0:34:05 It’s like the Jewish female guilt nervousness thing
0:34:07 that there’s no way that I’d be able to do it.
0:34:09 But I think it’s another reason
0:34:12 that the Trump campaign is benefiting
0:34:14 from this truncated schedule
0:34:16 because Musk only started doing this
0:34:18 like three, four days ago or something like that.
0:34:22 So worst case scenario, oh, I did it for two weeks.
0:34:24 It’s not like I had this plan in place
0:34:27 and I’ve been doing it for an entire year.
0:34:28 – Yeah, that’s totally different.
0:34:33 – It’s also, it’s been wildly ineffective
0:34:34 what he’s been doing.
0:34:36 And this has been a theme that we’re talking about.
0:34:40 The Guardian had a scoop over the weekend
0:34:43 that a quarter of the door knockers
0:34:46 in Arizona and Nevada for the Trump campaign,
0:34:49 so Musk is paying them, the money’s coming from him,
0:34:52 are writing fraudulent reports.
0:34:54 They’re not actually knocking on doors
0:34:55 ’cause they go back and they check,
0:34:56 like, did you hear from somebody?
0:34:58 And they just marked it off and took the money
0:35:01 and went and got some beers or whatever they’re gonna do.
0:35:03 So I continue to be heartened
0:35:07 by the Democrats’ organization on a comparative level,
0:35:09 like canvassing matters.
0:35:12 And you’re seeing all of these deeply reported pieces,
0:35:16 especially in swing districts like in Arizona and Georgia,
0:35:19 where people are talking about their interactions
0:35:22 with voters and are meeting a lot of women in particular,
0:35:23 which isn’t surprising
0:35:26 since we’re trending towards this historic gender gap.
0:35:27 People are coming to the door
0:35:30 and they’re basically saying, I’m voting for her.
0:35:31 I don’t wanna talk about it.
0:35:34 It’s not like in 2016 when everyone was so excited,
0:35:36 like, I’ve got my woman card here.
0:35:39 Like I have a 3D printed Hillary doll
0:35:41 that is in my daughter’s room now.
0:35:42 It’s really cute.
0:35:43 She goes like, that’s mama.
0:35:45 And it’s a blonde and like a blue suit.
0:35:46 So obviously it’s not mama,
0:35:48 but like there’s this excitement
0:35:50 that I still feel about her.
0:35:52 – That’s 3D printed Hillary doll.
0:35:54 – That a stranger sent to me
0:35:56 and I wasn’t even bothered
0:35:58 that he somehow knew my home address
0:36:02 because I literally came to the door
0:36:04 and I was like, should I report this
0:36:06 or just sleep with it forever?
0:36:11 And like, people used to be excited about their vote
0:36:13 in a different way than they are in this election.
0:36:16 Even if you’re enthusiastic about turning the page,
0:36:17 whatever way you’re turning it,
0:36:20 people, I’m sure you guys notice this in your lives.
0:36:24 Like it’s not as fun to talk about anymore over dinner.
0:36:26 You’re just like, it’s happening.
0:36:28 When is this going to be over?
0:36:30 – Soon enough, I hope.
0:36:33 So speaking when it’s over, early voting is kicked in.
0:36:36 Georgia received more than 600,000 votes
0:36:38 in the first days, North Carolina have massive lines
0:36:42 despite of being in some areas
0:36:46 where very hard hit by Hurricane Helene.
0:36:47 What’s your read?
0:36:50 Is this massive, is this tied a wave of early voting
0:36:53 good or bad for Democrats or Republicans?
0:36:57 – So there are two schools of thought on it.
0:37:01 I in general tend to think big turnout is better
0:37:03 for Democrats and also just better for democracy.
0:37:05 I want the most amount of, however it shakes out,
0:37:07 I would be excited if the number of people
0:37:09 that are involved in the democratic process is higher.
0:37:11 And I think that we should all feel that way.
0:37:13 But I also really want to win.
0:37:16 And the reason that I think that it’s better
0:37:19 is except in Georgia and Nevada, I think it is,
0:37:22 it’s been a higher turnout amongst women than amongst men.
0:37:24 And Republicans have been running around,
0:37:26 if you’re very into talking politics,
0:37:30 I’m sure someone has told you that Republicans now
0:37:33 have a higher number of registered voters than Democrats.
0:37:35 We hadn’t seen this trend line in decades.
0:37:38 And it happened, it came out like two weeks ago.
0:37:41 The Gallup data showed it for the first time.
0:37:44 But what they miss with that talking point is,
0:37:47 does your affiliation mean how you’re voting?
0:37:49 Was Cheney still a registered Republican?
0:37:50 – Yep.
0:37:53 – And a lot of these people are.
0:37:55 So I’m not sure it’s indicative of anything like that,
0:37:57 but the high turnout I think is net net good for us.
0:38:00 And apparently the Gen Z turnout is massive.
0:38:03 And I saw a video online today,
0:38:06 definitely, I saw this video of,
0:38:10 there’s kind of this asshole guy walking on interviewing
0:38:13 young women about why they’re voting for Kamala.
0:38:15 And the point was to make fun of them
0:38:17 because they kept talking about abortion
0:38:19 and being able to control their own bodies.
0:38:23 And I saw these Trump supporters being like,
0:38:27 you callous fools, like you think it’s all about,
0:38:29 being able to go out and sleep with whoever
0:38:32 at the sex club and then just go
0:38:34 and get an abortion. – And then order Chinese.
0:38:37 – And then order chicken with scallions,
0:38:38 which was delicious here.
0:38:43 And it’s amazing to see a piece of content
0:38:48 that means such different things to both groups.
0:38:50 So all the Republicans are dunking on it
0:38:53 and all of the Democrats or the left-leaning supporters
0:38:55 or people who just care about reproductive health
0:38:57 are saying it is a completely normal thing
0:39:01 for a 22-year-old woman to worry
0:39:03 that she’s going to have a healthcare emergency
0:39:05 and not be able to get the treatment that she needs.
0:39:12 – Noelle, the election is nigh.
0:39:13 – It sure is.
0:39:15 Can you name all the swing states?
0:39:20 – Oh, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania,
0:39:25 Georgia, and is it Virginia?
0:39:26 – It is not.
0:39:28 It’s North Carolina, but you got the others.
0:39:30 – Oh, I mean, I think it’s arguable.
0:39:31 Let’s just say I’m kind of right.
0:39:32 Let’s give me partial credit.
0:39:35 – Partial credit, it is, and we are doing episodes
0:39:37 about all seven of the real swing states.
0:39:39 – Oh, it sounds like I should listen.
0:39:40 What are we doing?
0:39:41 Like history lessons?
0:39:44 – No, the big issues, abortion, the economy,
0:39:47 election security, all of it.
0:39:50 – Okay, so you’re saying if you listen to,
0:39:54 today explains seven episodes on the seven swing states
0:39:56 between now and the election,
0:39:58 you are going to be ready for whatever comes
0:39:59 on November 5th.
0:40:00 – There you go.
0:40:02 – Today explained wherever you listen,
0:40:04 we drop in the afternoons, Monday to Friday.
0:40:10 – So let’s talk a little bit about the polls.
0:40:12 I’m curious what you make of these.
0:40:15 So far, a new general election polling
0:40:19 shows that Harris is up by four in Georgia,
0:40:22 up by two in Michigan, up by two in Pennsylvania,
0:40:24 which is sort of coming down to be
0:40:25 kind of the most important state.
0:40:26 – Definitely.
0:40:29 He has no path without it, and she needs it too,
0:40:31 but he like really needs it.
0:40:32 – It’s interesting, ’cause, well,
0:40:33 I’ll go through this in a second.
0:40:35 Wisconsin, Harris up three, Nevada,
0:40:38 Thai, North Carolina, Trump up three,
0:40:39 Arizona, Trump up three.
0:40:42 See, I read this poll, and to me it means,
0:40:44 it looks as if the edge is to Harris.
0:40:47 And if you look at all, the majority of,
0:40:49 quote unquote, really thoughtful people I know
0:40:50 are actually quite worried.
0:40:52 It feels like her momentum was arrested
0:40:55 about two weeks ago when it swung back dramatically.
0:40:56 And then if you look at the betting sites,
0:41:00 which I think would be where I would go for information,
0:41:03 but my podcast co-host on Property Markets,
0:41:04 Ed Ellison pointed out that,
0:41:07 keep in mind the people who gamble are young men
0:41:08 who are biased towards Trump.
0:41:10 And then I got an email today from my friend,
0:41:12 Michael Auerbach, saying,
0:41:16 it’s a Democrat in there spending millions on Trump
0:41:19 in hopes that it’ll convince Trumpers to stay home
0:41:20 ’cause they don’t need to show up.
0:41:25 It just is like, there’s all of this crazy kind of people
0:41:29 trying to manipulate in the role it plays.
0:41:31 When I saw these polls, I thought this is wrong
0:41:34 ’cause this feels decidedly Harris to me.
0:41:35 Any thoughts on the polls?
0:41:37 Well, this was part of the change in my mood.
0:41:40 I said I’d been like algorithm miserable
0:41:42 for the last two weeks.
0:41:44 And this morning I was like, we’re back.
0:41:50 I actually, we went to an apple farm on Saturday
0:41:54 for apple picking with our little people.
0:41:58 And I was like, there were Trump flags everywhere,
0:41:59 people out doing their thing.
0:42:02 And we passed by one Kamala Harris sign.
0:42:03 And I actually like fist pumped,
0:42:05 like I’m not a fist pumper.
0:42:08 And my husband goes, it says Kamala Harris is an idiot.
0:42:12 So, and then I remembered we’re like five minutes
0:42:14 from Bedminster, this is Trump country.
0:42:19 But I saw that, which is from a very reputable pollster.
0:42:23 And that felt more in line with the fact that
0:42:26 we know that a majority of Americans
0:42:31 have more aligned policy positions to the Harris campaign.
0:42:33 That doesn’t mean that she’s going to win,
0:42:35 but it means that she’s breaking through
0:42:36 on a lot of levels.
0:42:40 There was an AP poll out that, yeah,
0:42:44 that she is leading on a number of economic issues,
0:42:45 which is a really big deal,
0:42:46 like keeping inflation down,
0:42:48 dealing with the cost of groceries.
0:42:51 And to your point about who’s changing their mind,
0:42:56 I think is that the Emerson poll had 60 to 36 ratio
0:42:59 that people who have decided in the last month
0:43:00 are breaking for Harris.
0:43:02 So if you decided over a month ago,
0:43:05 Trump was winning that by huge margins.
0:43:06 But what she is doing,
0:43:07 and whether that’s just that she’s more
0:43:09 in the national consciousness,
0:43:10 if you’re just seeing her on the view,
0:43:12 whether you like what she said,
0:43:14 or you’re seeing her sit down with Brett Baer,
0:43:16 or you’re seeing her town halls,
0:43:20 that it’s making people feel calmer
0:43:22 about a Harris presidency,
0:43:26 which is what Brett Stevens was arguing in the times today,
0:43:28 where he said finally that he’s going to vote for her.
0:43:30 – The undecided voter has now decided?
0:43:33 – Not until, again, she was up 10 points
0:43:35 with independence in the last Fox poll.
0:43:39 – But the poll we reference as an AP poll,
0:43:41 and it shows Harris and Wall’s favorability
0:43:43 of five and 4% respectively,
0:43:46 whereas Trump and Vance are down 18 and 15%.
0:43:49 So that feels very favorable for Harris,
0:43:51 but I don’t know about you,
0:43:53 but kind of the zeitgeist I’m hearing
0:43:55 from people “in the know” pollsters
0:43:58 is that I’m really, really worried.
0:44:01 The bottom line is it just feels like it’s within.
0:44:03 – Can I ask you if you think the betting markets,
0:44:05 the stuff matters at all?
0:44:07 ‘Cause I know a lot of people that are complete truthers
0:44:09 are that the Wall Street Journal had a big expose
0:44:12 on how Polymarket is being moved.
0:44:14 I mean, your friend has an interesting counter theory,
0:44:16 but they found all of these Trumpers
0:44:18 were the ones that was pushing it,
0:44:21 ’cause now he’s up to 65% odds.
0:44:21 – I think there’s no doubt.
0:44:24 I think there’s more oxygen being taken out of the room
0:44:26 by a, I mean, you think about it,
0:44:28 betting is like the stock market,
0:44:31 and the stock market absorbs millions of points of light,
0:44:33 and it’s seen as kind of the total arbiter.
0:44:36 Whenever I go on a board, I always call the CFO,
0:44:38 ’cause the CFO is the source of truth.
0:44:39 From the market standpoint,
0:44:41 the stock price is the source of truth.
0:44:44 The CEO can talk flowery, but at the end of the day,
0:44:48 millions, the stock attempts to absorb tens of millions
0:44:51 of points of light, and then make a very no-mercy,
0:44:53 emotionalist decision with one singular thing,
0:44:56 like the aliens, the xenomorphs from aliens,
0:44:58 it’s just totally focused on killing.
0:45:01 It has no conscience, it has no morals,
0:45:03 it can’t be bargained with, and stocks are the same way.
0:45:06 They’re just, it’s people who just wanna make money.
0:45:09 And so when you see a betting market,
0:45:13 it says that it’s approximately a 60% or almost two
0:45:15 and three chance that Trump’s gonna win.
0:45:16 I think that’s great for the Trump campaign,
0:45:19 ’cause it says this unemotional arbiter
0:45:22 from people who are just focused on making money
0:45:23 think he’s gonna win.
0:45:25 And I think that creates, I think anything that creates
0:45:28 momentum that this person is likely to win
0:45:29 is good for that person.
0:45:31 Having said that, I have no idea.
0:45:33 By the way, the polls, all the gambling sites
0:45:36 were wrong in 2020.
0:45:38 They also saw–
0:45:39 – Trump winning.
0:45:40 – They also saw Trump winning.
0:45:41 And that goes back to Ed’s thesis,
0:45:44 that young men have a bias towards Trump.
0:45:47 Real quickly, do you think the death of Senwar
0:45:49 has any sort of impact on the election at this point?
0:45:54 – Well, I think it’s yet to be determined
0:45:58 on the actual voting, but it was interesting
0:45:59 to see in the last few days,
0:46:03 stories about her trouble with Arab voters in Michigan,
0:46:06 and her trouble with Jewish voters in Pennsylvania.
0:46:10 And I have a lot of friends, Josh Shapiro-Truthers,
0:46:15 who are watching him handle the Jewish holidays
0:46:19 with huge amounts of passion and inclusivity,
0:46:22 and Grace and him and his wife just seem
0:46:25 like wonderful ambassadors for the religion
0:46:28 and everything that we’re about.
0:46:32 And they’re like, I told you, Tim Walls is great.
0:46:35 These soundbites calling them weird
0:46:38 and saying mind your damn business was all well and good.
0:46:41 But that guy, the Baruch Obama of it all
0:46:43 would have been much better for us.
0:46:46 And time will tell, if we lose,
0:46:48 I’m probably gonna be pretty mad that I thought,
0:46:51 well Walls was a good choice.
0:46:54 But it does seem like there are probably
0:46:58 gonna be young people that potentially set this out
0:47:01 in Michigan, probably most of all,
0:47:04 and that there are going to be some Jews more
0:47:09 in our cohort, kind of overeducated and reading too much
0:47:12 and in their feelings about it,
0:47:17 who feel like they can’t tick the box with her,
0:47:20 but who knows, like last week’s Sinware is dead.
0:47:22 I mean, it was only like three weeks ago
0:47:24 that the beeper stuff started happening.
0:47:28 It feels like this whole thing is going at lightning pace.
0:47:30 So I don’t know what it’ll be like.
0:47:33 Do you think it’s having a real impact?
0:47:36 Well, I failed to see how it’s anything but positive
0:47:37 for the current administration
0:47:39 ’cause a feeling of chaos,
0:47:42 the existing administration pays the price for that.
0:47:45 I think their messaging around Israel has been abysmal
0:47:47 because this is the worst of both worlds.
0:47:49 Biden and Harris, I believe,
0:47:50 have actually been pretty good on Israel.
0:47:52 Whenever anyone complains about them,
0:47:56 I grew up in Los Angeles and went to UCLA.
0:47:57 I was in a Jewish fraternity.
0:47:59 The majority of my close friends from college are Jewish.
0:48:01 They’re all voting for Trump.
0:48:04 They’re just like, no, I have family there.
0:48:06 I want no milk toast bullshit around it.
0:48:07 I don’t want empathy.
0:48:12 I want someone who’s squarely behind Israel full stop.
0:48:14 And right now Trump has done a better job
0:48:15 of communicating that
0:48:18 because where Biden and Harris have really screwed up
0:48:21 is that no world leader’s been better on Israel
0:48:22 than Biden and Harris.
0:48:24 Like there was only one world leader
0:48:26 that immediately deployed two carrier strike forces
0:48:27 to the Mediterranean,
0:48:29 such that if the Iranians had any ideas
0:48:31 about starting a multi-front war,
0:48:35 he said, we got 4,500 incredibly skilled people
0:48:39 and we can deliver the violence of a big nation
0:48:40 and it’s sitting off your shore.
0:48:42 So sit the fuck down.
0:48:47 That was the most important move made outside of Israel.
0:48:49 And Americans, Biden and Harris did it.
0:48:53 But at the same time, all this bullshit wavering,
0:48:56 we’re trying for a truce.
0:48:58 I support them, but I don’t.
0:49:00 It’s like, they’ve handled it terribly
0:49:03 because they don’t get any credit for what they,
0:49:05 everybody’s angry at them.
0:49:06 Jews are angry at them.
0:49:09 Muslim Americans are angry at them.
0:49:12 So my belief was folks, you got to pick a side here
0:49:14 and trying to like thin them.
0:49:16 They just haven’t, they haven’t thread the needle here
0:49:19 and he doesn’t get, he and Vice President Harris
0:49:21 don’t get nearly the credit.
0:49:24 And just saying my husband is Jewish
0:49:28 is not a policy decision in my view.
0:49:30 So I think they’ve just handled the messaging
0:49:33 terribly around this, but I do think his death
0:49:35 can be nothing but positive
0:49:38 for the current administration or at least…
0:49:40 – Well, you would, you’re kind of weeding out.
0:49:44 When you kill a terrorist as big and as bad as Sinwar,
0:49:47 you’re able to weed out the people
0:49:50 that were never gonna be with you anyway.
0:49:53 Right, like that you had no choice of penetrating.
0:49:58 So like I did a show, I did special report on Friday
0:50:00 and we do this thing, winners and losers at the end.
0:50:04 And I had as my loser for the week, terrorists sympathizers.
0:50:09 Like these kids that are out there claiming
0:50:11 that this is about a genocide or whatever it is.
0:50:15 Like if you think in any way that a world without Sinwar
0:50:18 is problematic, there’s something problematic with you.
0:50:21 And I’m not even sure we really want your vote.
0:50:23 No, when we lose by 2000 votes,
0:50:25 I’ll probably take that back and say,
0:50:27 I would have loved to have had your support for that.
0:50:32 But I think it’s definitely a good thing that it happened
0:50:36 and it has put Netanyahu in a different light.
0:50:40 I feel he’s almost moved to being a wartime president
0:50:43 for the first time. – His popularity is surged.
0:50:45 – Yeah, but if he overplays his hand,
0:50:47 I think it was something in one of the strikes,
0:50:51 87 people in Beirut were killed,
0:50:53 innocents who were not terrorists, not involved at all.
0:50:56 You got a headline like that and people say
0:50:58 there has to be a better way to do this.
0:51:00 Now, I know on a historical level,
0:51:05 he’s still running a pinpoint accurate operation,
0:51:06 but that is compelling to people.
0:51:10 You see tiny innocent bodies blown up
0:51:12 and you think, what did they do to you?
0:51:15 – Yeah, we’ve gotten a lot of criticism online.
0:51:17 A lot of people say, you might be raging,
0:51:18 but you’re not moderates.
0:51:22 – Scott loves the comments, he’s in it all the time.
0:51:23 – Everyone’s addicted to something.
0:51:25 I’m addicted to the affirmation of strangers.
0:51:28 It’s pathetic, but I’m working on it.
0:51:31 So we wanted to do endorsements.
0:51:33 And my understanding,
0:51:35 none of this is gonna come as a surprise to anybody,
0:51:36 but my understanding is you’re not allowed
0:51:39 to do an official endorsement, is that correct?
0:51:42 – Everyone knows how I am voting, but I don’t free.
0:51:44 I am happy to talk about why Kamala Harris
0:51:46 will be the best president you’ve ever seen in your life.
0:51:48 But it’s not the same way that you’re gonna do it,
0:51:49 but do your thing.
0:51:50 And then I’ll talk my way through it.
0:51:51 – All right, I’ll go.
0:51:57 So I think a lot about young men, right?
0:51:59 So if you look globally,
0:52:01 the group that’s ascended the fastest is women.
0:52:02 It’s fantastic.
0:52:06 There are more women globally seeking tertiary education
0:52:07 now than men.
0:52:08 That’s a wonderful thing.
0:52:10 In the US, more single women on homes than single men,
0:52:13 three to two college graduates.
0:52:15 Globally, you’ve seen a doubling of the number of women
0:52:17 elected to parliament in the last 30 years.
0:52:21 We’ve never seen an ascent of a demographic globally,
0:52:23 this violent and this wonderful,
0:52:25 and that’s a collective victory for all of us.
0:52:28 And we should do nothing to get in the way of that.
0:52:31 At the same time, the group that has fallen
0:52:34 furthest the fastest in the United States is young men.
0:52:36 Four times as likely to kill themselves,
0:52:37 three times as likely to be addicted,
0:52:39 12 times as likely to be incarcerated.
0:52:42 So you have an entire cohort of young men
0:52:43 that aren’t engaging with relationships,
0:52:45 they’re not engaging with school,
0:52:47 three million able-bodied men under the age of 40
0:52:49 aren’t even seeking employment.
0:52:50 They’ve just given up on employment.
0:52:54 So they’re not engaging with work, school relationships.
0:52:59 And so I think about, and also just very strategically,
0:53:00 I think that young men
0:53:01 are some of the last swing voters left.
0:53:03 We talk about swing states,
0:53:04 it’s not swing states, it’s swing counties,
0:53:07 it’s not really swing counties, it’s swing voters.
0:53:08 And I think young men are still some
0:53:10 of the last available swing voters.
0:53:13 Specifically a lot of young men
0:53:15 are sort of like maybe gonna vote, maybe not.
0:53:18 And also they’re not as Neanderthal knuckles
0:53:21 dragging along the ground as people would think.
0:53:25 Young men actually believe in gender equality.
0:53:27 It’s whether or not they actually turn out.
0:53:30 And if Democrats don’t get a disproportionate number
0:53:31 of young people to vote for them,
0:53:32 they’re gonna lose the election.
0:53:35 So my endorsement is if you will,
0:53:37 through the lens of a young man.
0:53:39 And the way I think about it is,
0:53:42 it’s really good and important to have a code to guide you.
0:53:44 Some people get it from religion,
0:53:45 some people get it from their work,
0:53:47 some people get it from their school,
0:53:49 some people get it by joining the Marines
0:53:50 and adopting that code.
0:53:54 But I think as a young man, you need a code.
0:53:56 And I’ve been thinking a lot about masculinity.
0:53:58 And this is where some people get very uncomfortable.
0:54:01 I think masculinity can be a great code
0:54:04 in an aspirational way for young men.
0:54:05 And that is the following.
0:54:09 I think that a decent proxy for masculinity
0:54:13 is a provider, protector, and procreator.
0:54:14 And so let’s go through each of those
0:54:18 and why I think Harris would be the best candidate.
0:54:23 Provider, you can be good in a country with low growth.
0:54:24 You can be good and Britain right now,
0:54:26 but the fact that the country hasn’t grown in five years
0:54:28 ’cause of terrible economic policies,
0:54:31 it is difficult to be a good provider.
0:54:34 So you want a context where you can have a job,
0:54:36 have good economic growth,
0:54:38 and quite frankly, do well and be a provider.
0:54:40 And I think every man should start from the viewpoint
0:54:44 of I’m gonna take economic responsibility for my household.
0:54:47 And sometimes that means getting out of the way
0:54:49 of your partner who’s better at that money thing
0:54:51 than you are and being more supportive.
0:54:52 As I like to think I was,
0:54:54 as my partner was working in Goldman Sachs
0:54:57 and making a lot more money than I was at the time.
0:55:00 But I think it’s a good standpoint to start from.
0:55:02 I’m going to be an economic provider here.
0:55:04 And the reality is three quarters of women
0:55:07 say economic viability is really important in a mate.
0:55:08 It’s only one quarter for men.
0:55:11 So if you want to be taken seriously in our economy
0:55:12 and I’m not to our nation,
0:55:13 I’m not talking about what should be,
0:55:14 I’m talking about what is.
0:55:18 Young men need to aspire to be good providers.
0:55:20 You’re gonna have an easier time as a young man
0:55:24 being a provider, I believe in an economic environment
0:55:26 based on the Harris plan.
0:55:29 We have so far, if you think it’s most likely
0:55:32 gonna be a continuation of the current policies,
0:55:35 we have the lowest inflation of any G7 country
0:55:36 while having the strongest growth.
0:55:38 We are at full employment.
0:55:41 We have the lowest unemployment since 1968.
0:55:45 We have had 71 record highs in the market.
0:55:48 We have added more shareholder value
0:55:51 just with AI in this nation in the last 18 months
0:55:53 in the entire global auto industry
0:55:55 since the inception of the auto industry.
0:55:56 The fact that these algorithms
0:55:58 are trying to convince young people
0:55:59 that this economy is awful,
0:56:02 there are 190 sovereign nations in the world.
0:56:07 189 would trade places with us.
0:56:10 China has lost $3 trillion in market capitalization
0:56:12 over the last three years.
0:56:15 We’ve gained $5 trillion in the last seven.
0:56:16 This economy is on fire.
0:56:19 Now, similar to the future, it’s here, prosperity is here.
0:56:21 It’s just not evenly distributed.
0:56:22 A lot of people are struggling,
0:56:25 but unfortunately there’s this dynamic
0:56:27 where when your salary goes up 10%,
0:56:28 you think it’s your grid and character,
0:56:30 but when diapers go up 4%,
0:56:32 you blame the Harrison Biden administration.
0:56:35 This economy will be much stronger.
0:56:37 Your ability to be a good provider
0:56:42 is much more likely with Harris’s economic plan.
0:56:45 Protection should be the default setting for people,
0:56:46 and I think Democrats,
0:56:49 specifically Vice President Wallace is a great job.
0:56:52 And if we want to have more young people
0:56:55 pairing up, having sex,
0:56:56 finding relationships,
0:57:00 and having deep and meaningful families,
0:57:02 we need to encourage people
0:57:05 to connect both emotionally, mentally, and physically,
0:57:09 and women are gonna stop for good reason
0:57:11 if they maintain this type of risk,
0:57:14 if we continue down this perverted track
0:57:16 of taking bodily autonomy away from women.
0:57:19 In sum, in sum,
0:57:22 I can guarantee all young men listening to this podcast
0:57:25 that you porn is bested by your porn.
0:57:30 And my advice to you is to get out,
0:57:31 get your shit together,
0:57:33 make yourself more attracted to women,
0:57:35 more attractive to women,
0:57:37 pursue sex,
0:57:39 establish relationships,
0:57:40 and be a protector and a provider.
0:57:42 And I think all of those things
0:57:45 around a code for masculinity
0:57:48 are much better served in a Harris administration
0:57:52 than this weird, unhealthy version of the manosphere
0:57:55 that is being projected on the right.
0:57:59 So with that, I am endorsing Vice President Harris
0:58:01 and Governor Walls for President.
0:58:04 (audience applauding)
0:58:11 All right, folks, that’s it for tonight.
0:58:12 Thank you for joining us tonight.
0:58:15 And special thanks to Maxwell for hosting us.
0:58:17 Thanks, big shout out to Maxwell,
0:58:19 our producers are Caroline Chagrin and David Toledo,
0:58:22 our technical director is Drew Burroughs.
0:58:23 Please follow Raging Moderates
0:58:25 wherever you get your podcasts.
0:58:26 That’s right, Raging Moderates
0:58:28 has its very own feed.
0:58:31 One thrill, drinks on Jessica.
0:58:33 Thank you for your time.
0:58:36 (audience applauding)
0:58:41 – The number one selling product of its kind
0:58:44 with over 20 years of research and innovation,
0:58:47 Votox Cosmetic, adobatulinum toxin A,
0:58:49 is a prescription medicine used to temporarily make moderate
0:58:53 to severe frown lines, crow’s feet and forehead lines
0:58:54 look better in adults.
0:58:57 Effects of Votox Cosmetic may spread hours to weeks
0:58:59 after injection, causing serious symptoms.
0:59:01 Alert your doctor right away as difficulties swallowing,
0:59:03 speaking, breathing, eye problems or muscle weakness
0:59:05 may be a sign of a life-threatening condition.
0:59:06 Patients with these conditions
0:59:08 before injection are at highest risk.
0:59:10 Don’t receive Votox Cosmetic if you have a skin infection.
0:59:12 Side effects may include allergic reactions,
0:59:14 injection site pain, headache, eyebrow and eyelid drooping
0:59:15 and eyelid swelling.
0:59:17 Allergic reactions can include rash,
0:59:19 welts, asthma symptoms and dizziness.
0:59:20 Tell your doctor about medical history.
0:59:22 Muscular nerve conditions including ALS or Lou Gehrig’s
0:59:25 disease, myasthenia gravis or Lambert Eaton syndrome
0:59:27 and medications, including Votulinum toxins,
0:59:29 as these may increase the risk of serious side effects.
0:59:32 For full safety information, visit VotoxCosmetic.com
0:59:36 or call 877-351-0300.
0:59:39 See for yourself at VotoxCosmetic.com.
In this live taping of Raging Moderates, Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov take you through the final sprint of the campaign, jaw-dropping early voting numbers, Elon Musk’s $1 million random payments, and the fallout from the killing of a top Hamas leader.
Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov.
Follow Prof G, @profgalloway.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices