Raging Moderates – The Final Week, John Kelly’s Warning, and the Battle for Congress

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0:01:52 – Welcome to Raging Moderates, I’m Scott Galloway.
0:01:53 – And I’m Jessica Tarla.
0:01:56 And you are literally the recipient
0:02:00 of the biggest puff piece I have ever seen.
0:02:03 For our listeners that don’t subscribe to The New York Times
0:02:05 or haven’t seen it in your social media feed,
0:02:07 according to The New York Times,
0:02:10 Jess is the person on Fox that people love to hate,
0:02:12 but they can’t help loving.
0:02:14 I have never seen-
0:02:16 – Show me the lies, Scott Galloway.
0:02:21 – I read, I like you and I wanted to scroll up in my mouth.
0:02:25 Jesus Christ, it was even the pictures were fantastic.
0:02:29 You, I imagine if, I mean, granted,
0:02:31 you’re not as self-absorbed as I am,
0:02:32 or at least I don’t think you are.
0:02:33 I would have just-
0:02:34 – Trying to avoid it, yeah.
0:02:37 – I would have just wallpapered my house in that article.
0:02:39 Oh my gosh, you must feel great.
0:02:42 – It’s pretty good.
0:02:46 This, my liberal heart was warmed, let’s say.
0:02:46 – Oh my goodness.
0:02:48 – And there’s always these moments
0:02:50 that break through out of the Fox orbit,
0:02:53 where my actual life knows what I do for a living
0:02:54 and kind of can see it.
0:02:59 So my text messages, just full of like parents
0:03:01 and grandparents of people that I know,
0:03:03 that are like, oh my God, you’re alive
0:03:06 and you’re doing this cool thing.
0:03:07 No, it was fabulous.
0:03:12 They did a, it was a very generous article for sure,
0:03:16 but I liked how much they captured about my background
0:03:18 and also what I’m doing at Fox.
0:03:21 And they had great quotes from my colleagues.
0:03:24 I have zero complaints and you told me
0:03:26 I would have a complaint and I don’t.
0:03:28 I got the puff piece of the century.
0:03:32 – Yeah, I was just, I was, I knew it would be good.
0:03:33 I knew it would be positive,
0:03:36 but any kind of, almost any,
0:03:37 any, especially in New York times,
0:03:39 feels like they gotta find a couple people
0:03:40 to say bad things about you.
0:03:42 And they clearly couldn’t find anyone.
0:03:44 – But I’m not a white man.
0:03:46 So I feel like I had that going in my favor.
0:03:47 – Yeah, I was.
0:03:49 I read it and I kept waiting for,
0:03:51 you know, the line saying some people she’s,
0:03:54 some people say she’s whatever to, you know,
0:03:56 or she gets a pass because it never came.
0:04:00 It was just talking to all these Republicans who love you
0:04:02 and all these Democrats who adore you.
0:04:03 Anyways, congratulations.
0:04:06 That’s, that was really nice.
0:04:06 – It was very cool.
0:04:07 – A nice moment for you.
0:04:10 So today we’re going to be talking
0:04:12 about the final week of the campaign,
0:04:15 John Kelly’s warning about Trump’s fascist behavior
0:04:19 and the down ball of races that we have our eyes on.
0:04:22 All right, so we are down to the final week.
0:04:24 Thank God.
0:04:26 Kamala Harris is pulling in A-list names
0:04:27 to get voters fired up.
0:04:31 Beyonce, Eminem wasn’t, I didn’t see that one coming.
0:04:33 Bruce Springsteen, Spike Lee,
0:04:35 Samuel Jackson, just to name a few.
0:04:38 Hillary Clinton did something similar back in 2016,
0:04:40 but Harris’s approach has been different.
0:04:43 She’s been calling herself the underdog all along,
0:04:44 whereas Clinton’s campaign carried
0:04:46 an expectation of victory.
0:04:49 The rally in Houston with Beyonce was her largest yet.
0:04:51 Let’s listen to a clip.
0:04:54 – We are at the precipice of an incredible shift,
0:04:56 the brink of history.
0:05:02 I’m not here as a celebrity.
0:05:05 I’m not here as a politician.
0:05:06 I’m here as a mother.
0:05:12 A mother who cares deeply about the world,
0:05:15 my children and all of our children living.
0:05:21 A world where we have the freedom to control our bodies.
0:05:25 A world where we’re not divided.
0:05:29 Our past, our present, our future,
0:05:32 merge to meet us here.
0:05:34 – This in the clip that is really making the rounds
0:05:36 and I would argue has been more powerful
0:05:38 as the clip of Michelle Obama,
0:05:41 or first lady, former first lady, Michelle Obama.
0:05:44 What are your thoughts going into the last week here?
0:05:47 Give us your state of play around the race, Jess.
0:05:52 – So I’m actually not having a huge anxiety day.
0:05:54 So you caught me at a good moment
0:05:56 where I’m pretty optimistic about–
0:05:57 – So Xanax.
0:05:58 Xanax for precipice.
0:06:01 – I’m heavily drugged actually to get through this
0:06:04 just casually on a Monday.
0:06:09 So I’ve been trying to look at the actual data
0:06:10 versus the vibes and it’s interesting
0:06:13 because it’s the inverse of how we started out.
0:06:16 Remember that this was the vibes campaign, right?
0:06:18 We were all coconut-pilled.
0:06:21 Charlie XCX gave us Brat Summer
0:06:22 and everyone was riding high
0:06:24 on the fact that we felt like we had a chance.
0:06:28 And now we have a lot of information
0:06:29 from the ground of what’s going on
0:06:32 and Jenna Malley-Dell and the campaign manager
0:06:35 for Kamala’s campaign was on with Jen Psaki on Sunday.
0:06:39 And she said we knocked on 1.2 million doors
0:06:42 in battleground states on Saturday alone.
0:06:45 That is mind blowing.
0:06:47 How many people are out doing this?
0:06:49 And there are the Christine Baranskis of the world
0:06:51 who are showing up in people’s doors
0:06:53 and Bradley Whitford and all of that is great.
0:06:55 But there are just regular people
0:06:57 that are out there jazzed to be doing this
0:06:59 and there are Democrats doing it
0:07:01 and Republicans doing it.
0:07:03 And that’s giving me a lot of hope.
0:07:05 There was a pullout that was really positive
0:07:08 but I wanted to ask you about Beyonce,
0:07:10 I wish she had performed, that’s always the downer in this.
0:07:11 And of course you had 30,000 people
0:07:14 because people thought they were going to a Beyonce concert.
0:07:16 And I thought she was powerful and great
0:07:20 and revealed herself to have political messaging
0:07:22 that maybe we didn’t think that she had and I loved it.
0:07:24 But there was something that Michelle Obama said
0:07:27 that I feel like you probably wouldn’t have loved.
0:07:30 So the clip circulating about what the implications
0:07:33 of the Dove’s decision have obviously incredible
0:07:37 but she says to men that they need to take the lives
0:07:40 of the women, the lives of the women in their lives,
0:07:43 she said it more articulately than I did, seriously.
0:07:48 And it was in the same vein as when Obama kind of scolded
0:07:53 black men in Pennsylvania before he did his first big rally
0:07:55 for the campaign a few weeks back
0:07:56 when they got a lot of criticism for,
0:07:59 what did you make of that part of Michelle’s messaging?
0:08:02 – Oh, I absolutely loved it.
0:08:03 – You did, okay.
0:08:05 – Yeah, I’ve been thinking a lot about,
0:08:09 I’m writing a book on masculinity
0:08:11 and I’ve been thinking a lot about
0:08:14 what is an aspirational modern form of masculinity
0:08:18 and these words that come back to provider protector
0:08:21 and procreator when I think of protector,
0:08:24 I think, okay, at some point in your life,
0:08:26 first degree, second degree,
0:08:28 there’s going to be someone in your life
0:08:30 with an unplanned pregnancy.
0:08:35 And the notion that you don’t immediately go to protection
0:08:38 and think, all right, I want people in my life
0:08:40 to have options, ’cause the most mendacious thing
0:08:43 about this bodily autonomy argument
0:08:47 is that if you wanted to ensure it was rejected
0:08:49 and women had bodily autonomy,
0:08:50 all you would need to do is ensure
0:08:52 that the rule was absolute.
0:08:56 Because wealthy Americans and including wealthy Republicans
0:08:58 kind of know that if something,
0:09:00 if an unplanned pregnancy happens to them
0:09:04 or their niece or their daughter, they’ll figure it out.
0:09:05 Wealthy people will figure it out.
0:09:08 And that’s the most mendacious thing about this.
0:09:12 So this is really a war on poor women quite frankly,
0:09:17 poor families, 17 year old black woman who becomes pregnant
0:09:19 doesn’t have a lot of education, single parent,
0:09:22 maybe hides the pregnancy, doesn’t have resources,
0:09:25 can’t be shipped to Atlanta for to terminate the pregnancy,
0:09:28 doesn’t have access to medical abortion.
0:09:32 And her message was, if you’re a man, how I read it,
0:09:34 your job is to protect people,
0:09:36 maybe not even in your direct sphere.
0:09:37 That’s your job as a man.
0:09:40 You’re supposed to protect women.
0:09:42 And if you look at why women generally speaking,
0:09:44 and this is gonna sound sexist,
0:09:46 but there’s research to show this,
0:09:47 why they’re attracted to men
0:09:48 or one of the features they’re attracted to
0:09:51 is they want a man who physically, intellectually,
0:09:54 and financially gives them the impression
0:09:58 that when shit gets real, that man can protect them.
0:10:01 And this seems just at the very core of that.
0:10:06 The dude, yeah, think about your own economic well-being,
0:10:11 but your instinct, your muscle memory should be to protect.
0:10:14 And this is, you’re not protecting us right now.
0:10:16 By not showing up and pushing back on this,
0:10:18 you are not protecting us.
0:10:22 I thought that was the most powerful part of her speech.
0:10:25 – When I first heard it, I thought, yeah, exactly.
0:10:28 Especially having gone through two pregnancies recently
0:10:31 and given birth, it’s one of the most fragile
0:10:33 and frightening things you can do.
0:10:37 And you’re one step away from a medical emergency
0:10:39 for nine, 10 months straight.
0:10:41 And it is a miracle every time
0:10:44 that one of these babies is delivered safely
0:10:46 and that the mom is good and that the baby is good.
0:10:48 So I totally get that.
0:10:51 I just, I took a step back because we’re focused on getting
0:10:53 men to support the Democratic Party
0:10:55 in this last hustle here.
0:11:00 And I wondered about that kind of 28-year-old guy
0:11:03 who feels like the Democratic Party isn’t interested in him
0:11:05 or the 35-year-old guy or the 42,
0:11:09 whatever up to through Gen X,
0:11:11 like the Gen Zs and millennials.
0:11:14 And I didn’t know how that would sit with them.
0:11:17 I hope that they heard it the way that you did
0:11:18 because that’s how I did,
0:11:20 but I feel like I’m sometimes so clouded
0:11:24 by my own estrogen that perhaps I can’t see it clearly
0:11:24 anymore.
0:11:27 – Well, just the idea,
0:11:31 and I think it’s important to remind young men of this,
0:11:32 your ability to be a provider,
0:11:37 you wanna be impoverished for the rest of your life,
0:11:40 be the father of an unwanted pregnancy at a young age.
0:11:41 – Yeah.
0:11:43 – I mean, this affects you too,
0:11:45 just being selfish if you’re a young man.
0:11:47 One, you’re gonna have less sex
0:11:49 and less bodily autonomy is restored.
0:11:53 Think about the reason why, I mean, essentially,
0:11:56 men wanna spread their seed to the four corners of the earth
0:11:58 and women put up a much finer filter
0:12:01 to try and attract the smartest, strongest and fastest seed.
0:12:02 And I know that sounds reductive and crude,
0:12:04 but I have evidence to prove this.
0:12:06 And because of the downside of pregnancy
0:12:08 is so much greater for women than for men,
0:12:11 women are more selective when it comes
0:12:14 to random sexual encounters.
0:12:15 And if you ask young men,
0:12:18 would you rather have more or less random sexual encounters
0:12:20 that might turn into a relationship,
0:12:21 that might turn into a family,
0:12:23 that might turn into kids?
0:12:25 I gotta think 90 plus percent of young men would think,
0:12:28 yeah, I’d rather have more opportunity
0:12:30 for sexual encounters.
0:12:33 If women believe that the downside of pregnancy
0:12:36 might be they have to carry the baby to term or worse,
0:12:39 they end up in an emergency room parking lot
0:12:43 with sepsis because doctors are afraid to treat her,
0:12:45 you’re gonna have less sex men.
0:12:48 So I go to just very selfish reasons
0:12:52 why men should be fighting for Harris and bodily autonomy.
0:12:54 And I don’t think men have gotten,
0:12:56 have received the message.
0:12:59 The thing I wanted to get your impression for,
0:13:03 I love unexpected surprises.
0:13:05 And I’m, this is my new thesis
0:13:07 on what I think is going to play
0:13:10 a critical role in an election that no one saw coming.
0:13:13 The October surprise I think is here.
0:13:17 And it’s the following and I’d love to get your response.
0:13:19 – Tony Hencliffe, who I’d never heard of.
0:13:21 He’s an actor kind of made famous,
0:13:23 or excuse me, a comedian made famous by Joe Rogan,
0:13:26 address the audience at the Trump rally
0:13:27 in Madison Square Garden.
0:13:28 And let me start off with,
0:13:32 I was shocked by how many Trump supporters
0:13:35 they were able to turn out in Manhattan.
0:13:37 – You know there are trains to Long Island.
0:13:39 That take you right in.
0:13:41 – But it’s a big stadium and it was passionate.
0:13:42 – Yeah, of course.
0:13:45 – I thought in deep blue territory,
0:13:47 it was really impressive that they turned out
0:13:50 so many diehard, enthusiastic Trump supporters.
0:13:53 So this comedian goes on to basically say,
0:13:58 there is this 50 ton island of floating trash
0:14:01 in the Caribbean and it’s Puerto Rico.
0:14:04 – There’s literally a floating island of garbage
0:14:06 in the middle of the ocean right now.
0:14:08 Yeah, I think it’s called Puerto Rico.
0:14:13 – There are 400,000 Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania.
0:14:17 – I thought this comment was so,
0:14:19 not only did it not land,
0:14:21 and I think you gotta cut comedians a pretty wide berth.
0:14:24 I’m very forgiving of comedians,
0:14:28 but this seemed to illuminate the Trump DNA
0:14:30 in such a negative way.
0:14:33 And that clip has gone viral.
0:14:36 And if I’m a Puerto Rican who maybe was supporting Harris
0:14:39 but not that enthusiastic and wasn’t gonna turn out,
0:14:42 I think she might get an incremental 10 or 15,000 votes
0:14:45 in Pennsylvania, which might swing Pennsylvania,
0:14:48 which might swing the election.
0:14:52 I think Tony Hinchcliffe, and that’s his name, Hinchcliffe,
0:14:54 might be the October surprise
0:14:56 that Harris fans were looking for.
0:15:01 – So I was following along to the rally via acts,
0:15:05 driving back from seeing Disney Junior, the live show.
0:15:07 So we could talk about that another day.
0:15:10 – You know what, that would be a toss up for me,
0:15:12 a Trump rally or the Disney,
0:15:15 I really wouldn’t know what to do there.
0:15:17 – I struggled, hardcore struggled,
0:15:21 went down to kind of, to Red Bank, New Jersey,
0:15:25 total Trump country to see Disney Junior.
0:15:29 My daughter, looking like she stroked out
0:15:32 when she saw Minnie in person, which was adorable.
0:15:35 You know, the little kid dancing is so cute.
0:15:39 But anyway, I’m following along to this MSG hot mess.
0:15:44 And I too, I wasn’t surprised that he filled the arena,
0:15:46 but I was talking to friends who were in there,
0:15:49 including reporters who said, it’s super common here.
0:15:51 Everyone is really nice.
0:15:55 It feels quite joyous, celebratory of everything
0:15:58 that Donald Trump is as a showman and entertainer.
0:15:59 And I totally get it.
0:16:01 Like he’s a lifelong New Yorker, you come back,
0:16:04 you sell out the garden, I mean, not sell out,
0:16:06 but you know what I mean, you fill the garden.
0:16:09 And I had heard Tony Hinchcliffe before,
0:16:12 because he was part of Tom Brady’s roast.
0:16:16 And I thought he was hilarious, making fun of Tom Brady,
0:16:17 which is a little bit different
0:16:20 than making fun of Puerto Ricans like that.
0:16:22 And that was the first kind of set of clips
0:16:25 that really stood out to me as concerning
0:16:27 for the Trump campaign,
0:16:30 because you saw the immediate backlash.
0:16:33 So Bad Bunny was up right away,
0:16:36 I think it’s 45 million followers with a video
0:16:40 that Kamala had cut for Puerto Ricans, posted that,
0:16:42 then JLo, then Ricky Martin.
0:16:47 So within like 10 minutes, 115 million followers
0:16:51 had been activated against Donald Trump because of this clip.
0:16:54 And it was a reminder to a lot of people.
0:16:57 And I think Ricky Martin actually used
0:16:59 the old footage of Trump after Hurricane Maria,
0:17:01 where he showed up and he threw paper towels
0:17:05 at people who had just had their homes absolutely decimated.
0:17:10 And I thought, okay, this might be in your words,
0:17:12 the October surprise of it,
0:17:14 which is basically that Trump can never
0:17:16 just stick with a good thing.
0:17:18 Like people think you’re kind of human,
0:17:20 and that you kind of don’t think these things.
0:17:23 And because you wanna have the raunchiest
0:17:24 and the funniest guy here.
0:17:26 And by the way, First Amendment protected,
0:17:28 it was a joke, I didn’t find that funny.
0:17:31 I don’t think we should be policing comedians in any way.
0:17:36 But a comedy show and a political rally are very different.
0:17:38 And you can expect if there had been
0:17:40 a Comedians for Kamala event,
0:17:42 and you had John Mulaney up there,
0:17:45 he wasn’t going to be insulting people like that.
0:17:46 He’s gonna be making fun of himself.
0:17:49 Or even if you had someone more out there,
0:17:50 like Dave Chappelle or Bill Burr,
0:17:52 they might make a few policy jokes.
0:17:54 Like Bill Burr actually has this hilarious bit
0:17:56 that he does about abortion.
0:17:57 And he’s a pro-choice supporter,
0:18:00 but he basically talks about how it is murder.
0:18:02 And it’s like a half-baked pie.
0:18:05 He’s like, you’re not gonna say that it’s not a pie
0:18:07 just because you only half-baked it, right?
0:18:09 Like those are all things that I can get on board with,
0:18:11 but there’s no way that they would have
0:18:13 stepped over the line that far.
0:18:17 And then so you have the liberal supporters that come out.
0:18:19 But then you see the conservatives,
0:18:21 like Rick Scott, the senator from Florida
0:18:23 who is in a reelection battle,
0:18:26 immediately says this is not right.
0:18:27 This is not what I think of Puerto Ricans.
0:18:28 Puerto Ricans are great people.
0:18:30 You see other GOP officials.
0:18:31 We’re gonna talk a little bit
0:18:34 about down-ballot races towards the end of the podcast.
0:18:38 There’s a guy, Diaz Pizito, who’s out in Suffolk County.
0:18:40 He looks like he’s gonna lose his race,
0:18:41 a Republican former cop.
0:18:44 I think he was the only vulnerable Democrat
0:18:48 or only Republican congressman or woman from New York
0:18:49 who actually showed up at the rally.
0:18:53 He’s immediately has to say, what the F is this?
0:18:55 I don’t think this at all.
0:18:56 So I think it was a complete disaster,
0:18:58 not to mention then that, you know,
0:18:59 Steven Miller goes on to say,
0:19:02 America is for Americans and Americans only.
0:19:06 To really bring the messaging home.
0:19:10 But I’m sure that what felt like a joyous occasion
0:19:12 in the aftermath, you know,
0:19:14 the Trump campaign put out a statement
0:19:16 saying that it doesn’t reflect their views.
0:19:19 Well, I’m sorry, it’s pretty precisely your campaign’s views.
0:19:21 If you pick the guy and the joke
0:19:23 was loaded in the teleprompter, right?
0:19:24 He didn’t make this up.
0:19:26 He wasn’t riffing.
0:19:29 Yeah, I would fire a Harris.
0:19:31 I’d be taking some of that precious airtime
0:19:34 that they have blocked across every local news station
0:19:36 in kind of the full employment act
0:19:37 for local broadcast news stations
0:19:39 in Pennsylvania and the swing states.
0:19:40 And I would just be running that clip,
0:19:43 that this is what the Republican party thinks of,
0:19:45 thinks of our, you know,
0:19:47 brothers and sisters here in America.
0:19:52 That struck me as, wow, this can’t,
0:19:53 and this is a real,
0:19:55 this is a significant population.
0:19:59 And I would imagine that this qualifies as a population
0:20:03 that A might not be, is inclined to vote for Harris.
0:20:06 It strikes me, this is really fertile ground
0:20:08 and they’ve just given us,
0:20:10 as being Democrats of the Harris campaign,
0:20:11 a softball here.
0:20:14 I wonder if this is gonna be,
0:20:15 especially in Pennsylvania,
0:20:19 I had no idea, 400,000 Puerto Ricans.
0:20:22 We’ll be right back.
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0:23:40 – Thank you.
0:23:46 – Meanwhile, Trump is making his closing argument,
0:23:48 leaning heavily into a message of fear,
0:23:49 particularly around immigration.
0:23:52 He had a big rally, as we referenced at MSG,
0:23:55 with many of the same folks that appeared at the RNC.
0:23:57 He also went on Joe Rogan’s podcast,
0:24:02 which I thought was very smart on the part of their campaign,
0:24:06 which is huge as Rogan has 14 million Spotify followers.
0:24:08 This was, it felt like an attempt to appeal
0:24:11 to young, low propensity male voters.
0:24:12 Let’s listen to a clip.
0:24:17 – So I have a son who’s very smart and tall, Baron, right?
0:24:19 And he knows all about you.
0:24:21 He knows about guys I never heard of.
0:24:24 He said, “Dad, you don’t know how big they are, they’re big.”
0:24:26 You know, he said, “Who the hell is he?”
0:24:30 Like Ross, I did, he said, “Dad, he’s a great guy.”
0:24:34 I mean, guys said, “It’s a whole new world out there.”
0:24:37 It’s a different world. – But you know, I’m on TikTok now.
0:24:39 – Congratulations. – And I’ve done really well.
0:24:40 No, but do you know the crazy,
0:24:42 have you seen the numbers?
0:24:45 Billions, like billions of hits, it’s crazy.
0:24:47 – I’m sure TikTok’s a wild application.
0:24:50 – And I’ve gone up 30 points.
0:24:53 A Republican has always downed 30 with young people.
0:24:55 I’m plus 30.
0:24:58 And I’m on TikTok, it’s had a huge impact.
0:25:01 – Young people are rejecting a lot of this woke bullshit.
0:25:05 Young people are tired of being yelled at and scolded.
0:25:06 They’re tired of these people
0:25:08 that they think are mentally ill,
0:25:09 telling them what the moral standards
0:25:11 of society should be today.
0:25:11 And people are upset.
0:25:13 – Your thoughts, Jess?
0:25:17 – Well, it was three hours, so I have many thoughts.
0:25:22 I think net net a positive for him to do that.
0:25:24 Exposure is always a good thing,
0:25:28 especially when he’s weaving, I think that’s the term he likes.
0:25:29 At one point, Rogan is like,
0:25:30 “You gotta weave a little less.”
0:25:34 Right, like I am actually trying to ask you something here.
0:25:37 Obviously that stat he threw out is completely incorrect.
0:25:39 The final Harvard youth poll came out
0:25:43 and she’s up 30 with young voters to be expected.
0:25:46 And people should cross tab dive through the ABC poll
0:25:49 from the weekend, which was really good for her head,
0:25:51 her up four, but also performing better
0:25:53 with black men and Latino men than Biden did even.
0:25:56 So we’ll see if that ends up checking out.
0:26:01 But one thing that Rogan did that I admired him for,
0:26:03 and I also thought that the venue was so perfect
0:26:07 for him to do this because it was not adversarial at all.
0:26:09 He called him out on the BS
0:26:13 about winning the 2020 election in a direct way,
0:26:15 but also a comforting way.
0:26:18 So that Trump didn’t feel like he was being accused
0:26:20 of something necessarily.
0:26:22 Rogan just said, “Are you ever gonna show us
0:26:23 “what you’re talking about?”
0:26:25 And that’s always been the problem
0:26:29 that they tell this grand story of stolen votes
0:26:32 and all these poll workers that were cheating
0:26:36 and all of the inaccuracies and the frauds and blah, blah, blah.
0:26:38 And they’ve never shown anything.
0:26:41 And people who have gone to jail will go to jail for that.
0:26:43 I mean, Rudy Giuliani owns nothing anymore.
0:26:45 Those election workers in Georgia
0:26:47 own his apartment on the Upper East Side
0:26:49 as a result of all of this.
0:26:51 So I really appreciated that Rogan did that.
0:26:54 And he said in his interview that the negotiations
0:26:56 with Kamala’s team are still alive,
0:26:59 whereas Kamala’s spokesperson said that it was a no-go,
0:27:01 said it was due to scheduling.
0:27:03 So I mean, obviously that’s not the case.
0:27:05 And I assume that she wanted some guardrails
0:27:07 that he wouldn’t offer,
0:27:08 but I think she totally should do it.
0:27:10 – She should have done it 100%.
0:27:12 – Like what could happen to you?
0:27:13 Is it could it be worse than losing the election?
0:27:16 I don’t know, that seems like the worst.
0:27:19 – No, and he’s, as an interviewer,
0:27:22 one thing I do like about Rogan
0:27:24 is when I started podcasting,
0:27:26 I was used to think it was my job to have a gotcha moment.
0:27:28 And then I realized Sam Harris said something
0:27:30 that always struck me that
0:27:32 he tries to present people in their best light.
0:27:33 And I try and do that now.
0:27:36 And I actually think Rogan does that, he’ll push back.
0:27:39 But he doesn’t try and have a gotcha moment.
0:27:42 Like Brett Baer was trying to corner her.
0:27:45 He started with some, he was trying to,
0:27:47 he had questions that were gotcha questions
0:27:49 with a follow-up and thinking she would respond this way.
0:27:54 And quite frankly, CNN does the same thing to candidates
0:27:56 who are from the right, he doesn’t do that.
0:27:58 She would have come out of this much more positive
0:28:03 and as we’ve said, Trump going on Rogan reached more people
0:28:08 than if he had gone on primetime CNN, MSNBC and Fox
0:28:11 every night, every week night for a week.
0:28:13 I mean, this guy, it really has changed
0:28:16 the complexion of the media landscape is these podcasts.
0:28:19 I think it’s a huge mistake
0:28:20 for her not to have done that.
0:28:22 And then I had this weird triggering moment
0:28:26 when I was in that clip and that is he described his son,
0:28:30 he said, “So I have a son who’s very smart and tall.”
0:28:34 And I thought, as a father, I would just never end tall.
0:28:37 Like, who cares?
0:28:39 That is like the last way I would describe my son.
0:28:41 I wouldn’t-
0:28:43 – Well, he’s obsessed with physicality.
0:28:46 – It’s just so weird to say that, you know, I have-
0:28:48 – I mean, he’s like six, nine, he’s like really tall.
0:28:50 – It’d be cooler if he was a basketball player
0:28:52 and you say, “Oh, he’s really tall, he’s a basketball player.”
0:28:54 – Yeah, and he’s at NYU and I’m happy he’s there.
0:28:55 I hope he has a wonderful experience.
0:28:59 But I thought this guy just his approach to fathering.
0:29:02 I just found it’s so weird that dad would describe
0:29:03 his son that way.
0:29:04 Anyways.
0:29:06 – Can I just quickly, before we get off this?
0:29:08 So he, I mean, three hours again,
0:29:10 a lot of opportunity to weave,
0:29:12 but he did a lot of historical stuff.
0:29:16 So he was wrong about which son of Lincoln’s died,
0:29:18 but he’s talking about like McKinley
0:29:21 and origins of tariffs.
0:29:25 And I couldn’t really follow a ton of it,
0:29:30 but I wonder if that does make a low information voter
0:29:34 think this guy knows more about what he’s talking about
0:29:35 than he actually does,
0:29:37 that you can even like throw these names into it.
0:29:40 Cause you know how sometimes when you’re so overwhelmed
0:29:43 and the zone is so proverbially flooded by things,
0:29:45 that you just hear a few things
0:29:48 and you assume that someone gets it
0:29:50 or knows what they’re talking about.
0:29:52 – Look, I hate to admit it.
0:29:53 I didn’t listen all three hours.
0:29:55 And that’s the reason I don’t listen
0:29:56 to Rogan or Lex Friedman.
0:29:58 And they’re kind of the original gangsters.
0:30:00 They’re both fantastic at what they do.
0:30:02 And I’ve said, despite that,
0:30:05 I don’t agree with a lot of Joe’s comments.
0:30:08 Every podcaster should send a royalty into Rogan
0:30:10 because he’s kind of busted open the medium.
0:30:14 But on the whole, that was a big win for him
0:30:18 because putting him in a relaxed atmosphere,
0:30:21 he, it softens his image and he needs that right now.
0:30:23 He comes across as the kind of guy,
0:30:25 at least I thought Trump came across as the kind of guy.
0:30:28 One, I thought he came across as old and age old
0:30:30 and not having any sense of history
0:30:34 or clearly has not only doesn’t fact check himself,
0:30:36 but doesn’t think anyone’s gonna fact check him
0:30:37 that will have any importance.
0:30:40 That he can just say whatever he wants.
0:30:43 But he came across as a guy you could grab a beer with.
0:30:45 He came across, in my opinion, is more likable.
0:30:49 He did at one point kind of laugh at himself.
0:30:54 The data itself or the historical inaccuracies
0:30:58 were just everywhere, but it doesn’t seem to matter.
0:31:03 And Van Jones had kind of the right,
0:31:06 I mean, and Michelle Obama brought it up as well,
0:31:09 but Van Jones did it first on CNN.
0:31:12 You know, he’s lawless and she’s expected to be flawless.
0:31:15 This is the mother of all grading on a curve
0:31:17 that is entirely different.
0:31:21 It is just, I mean, everyone is waiting.
0:31:24 And again, Michelle was so powerful.
0:31:26 Everyone’s waiting to parse every word she says
0:31:28 on an interview.
0:31:30 And then he gets up and says shit
0:31:34 that’s just blatantly wrong and weird and never happened
0:31:38 or goes off on a crazy tangent or says,
0:31:41 I don’t wanna answer questions, let’s listen to music.
0:31:46 If she did any of the things he does in any interview,
0:31:49 it would be like, Democrats in the press would be like,
0:31:52 oh my God, she’s lost it, she’s lost.
0:31:55 The Harris campaign is absolutely screwed up.
0:31:56 Absolutely screwed up not going on Rogan.
0:31:58 It would have been a huge win for the last thing
0:32:02 he was gonna do would be to go after
0:32:05 the Democratic female candidate of color.
0:32:06 He just wouldn’t have gone there.
0:32:08 And in general, Joe does try to give people
0:32:11 some running room and give them, in my opinion,
0:32:13 he gives them too much the benefit of the doubt.
0:32:14 When he brings on a total fucking quack
0:32:18 to say that mRNA vaccines all to your DNA,
0:32:20 he doesn’t say, well, is there any peer-reviewed research
0:32:22 that says there’s any veracity to that statement?
0:32:25 I don’t know if you knew this actually pulled my pilot
0:32:26 office spotify for a year.
0:32:27 I was so triggered by the whole thing.
0:32:29 But anyways, enough virtue signaling.
0:32:31 I think it was a win for him.
0:32:33 I think it was a win for him.
0:32:35 – Definitely and a good part of the closing argument,
0:32:37 which obviously the MSG rally was
0:32:41 and Kamala will be doing this speech at the ellipse
0:32:43 at clearly making, you know, protecting democracy
0:32:45 at the core of her clothes.
0:32:47 I personally would have preferred her to go
0:32:52 to an auto factory in Michigan or even a hospital,
0:32:54 you know, to talk about healthcare,
0:32:57 the people who really keep the country going.
0:33:00 But obviously this is a calculated decision
0:33:01 that they’ve made.
0:33:04 I think that those persuadable right-leaning Indies
0:33:07 and Republicans are more into protecting democracy.
0:33:09 But what do you think about that?
0:33:10 – I think you’re absolutely right.
0:33:13 I think one of the biggest mistakes we as Democrats
0:33:15 keep making is that we keep thinking if we keep talking
0:33:17 about what’s wrong with him, it’ll work.
0:33:19 That strategy has not worked.
0:33:21 She needs to talk about what’s right with her.
0:33:25 And that is the policy around Medicare,
0:33:28 such that your parents can die at home,
0:33:31 the policies around lack of tariffs,
0:33:33 the first home buyers.
0:33:36 She needs to play offense around why you should vote for me
0:33:38 as opposed to why you should not vote for him.
0:33:39 I agree with you.
0:33:43 She should have made an economic argument at the end
0:33:45 and talk about her policy.
0:33:46 The other kind of news,
0:33:48 and I’ll obviously give you my view up front,
0:33:52 I don’t think it’s big news, if you will,
0:33:55 is last week Trump’s longest serving chief of staff,
0:33:57 retired Marine General, John Kelly,
0:33:59 told The New York Times that in his view,
0:34:02 Trump would govern like a dictator if reelected.
0:34:05 Let’s listen to some of the audio that was released.
0:34:07 – Do you think he’s a fascist?
0:34:11 – Well, I’m looking at the definition of fascism.
0:34:15 It’s a far-right authoritarian,
0:34:18 ultra-nationalist political ideology movement
0:34:21 characterized by a dictatorial leader,
0:34:24 centralized hypocrisy, militarism,
0:34:27 forcible suppression of opposition,
0:34:30 belief in a natural social hierarchy.
0:34:36 So certainly, in my experience,
0:34:40 those are the kinds of things that he’s worked with work
0:34:43 that are in terms of running America.
0:34:44 – Well, I have a couple of questions here if you just.
0:34:49 First is, I would not agree with General Kelly’s policies,
0:34:52 I would bet, but it’s just weird.
0:34:55 We can’t get guys like that to run for president.
0:34:57 I mean, it’s clearly just so knowledgeable
0:34:59 and thoughtful and measured.
0:35:00 Do you think this is damaging for Trump
0:35:03 that Kelly has come out and said this?
0:35:05 – I think it’s always a problem
0:35:08 if somebody that respected,
0:35:10 and we should be honest about this.
0:35:14 I mean, Trump’s team, the ones who are still loyal to him,
0:35:17 have come out and say he hated him from the start.
0:35:20 He has always been insubordinate,
0:35:23 which is probably a four-star Marine general insubordinate,
0:35:26 but that he had an axe to grind and this is all made up
0:35:29 and has gotten a lot of quite credible people actually
0:35:32 to disparage Mark Milley and John Kelly.
0:35:35 But I think it can’t ever be good for you
0:35:37 that you have people on the record.
0:35:40 And this isn’t the Murmurs campaign anymore.
0:35:42 John Kelly sat down with Michael Schmidt at the times
0:35:44 and said this stuff on audio
0:35:47 and Kamala can use it in that way
0:35:49 and that can make it even more powerful
0:35:51 because I mean, this was a fight I was having on the five
0:35:55 with my colleagues on Friday about the fascism thing.
0:35:56 They said, she’s calling him a fascist.
0:36:01 I said, no, John Kelly in his voice is calling him a fascist.
0:36:03 And I do think if these late breakers,
0:36:07 the only undecideds left are people
0:36:10 that are partial to this argument
0:36:13 that this guy doesn’t care about the constitution.
0:36:14 He doesn’t care how you vote.
0:36:17 And there’s a ton of evidence
0:36:18 that what they are doing right now,
0:36:22 even in like what Tucker Carlson said in the MSG rally,
0:36:27 that they are making it seem as though his win
0:36:32 is so clearly ordained that anything but a Trump victory
0:36:37 will be fraud and that you will have to rise up
0:36:38 to take your country back.
0:36:40 The groundwork for that is happening.
0:36:42 And I think we’ve been talking on this for weeks.
0:36:44 That’s part of the complacency as well
0:36:46 with the get out the vote operation.
0:36:49 You know, giving it to Scott Pressler and Charlie Kirk.
0:36:51 You know, we’re knocking on a million doors
0:36:53 and they’re listening to Rogan.
0:36:55 It’s a very different world
0:36:57 in terms of how this is campaigning.
0:37:01 So not, not I think it’s always bad to be called a fascist,
0:37:05 but I do think it stands that people,
0:37:06 it’s your hard press to move people
0:37:09 about how they feel about Donald Trump at this point.
0:37:12 – The Trump campaign responded by calling Kelly’s claims,
0:37:13 debunked story is an accusing him
0:37:16 of having Trump arrangement syndrome.
0:37:17 By the way, I’ve been called to,
0:37:18 I’ve been accused of that a lot.
0:37:19 Do you get accused of that?
0:37:20 – Yeah, I have TDS so bad.
0:37:22 – Yeah, everywhere, everywhere.
0:37:24 Do I need antibiotics anyways?
0:37:26 – No, leptards will be fine.
0:37:27 Don’t worry. – There you go.
0:37:29 Meanwhile, Harris sees the moment
0:37:31 to focus on democracy targeting Republicans
0:37:33 who may be wavering on Trump.
0:37:34 I personally, unfortunately,
0:37:36 I think this is a big nothing burger.
0:37:37 I think people are so used to,
0:37:40 I think four of his 44 former secretaries
0:37:41 or cabinet members are supporting him.
0:37:45 The notion that these people folks aren’t supporting him
0:37:47 is something that’s already been absorbed
0:37:49 into the ecosystem.
0:37:50 I thought the most interesting part of this is
0:37:53 I like a sexy Jake Tapper, I like him salty.
0:37:57 Did you see him with Senator Vance?
0:38:00 – Yeah, and Mike Johnson the weekend before.
0:38:04 – Yeah, he was not taking it from Senator Vance.
0:38:07 I thought, I’m really like, I’m like, Jake,
0:38:10 you big slice of man.
0:38:14 I thought he had some of that, like Tom Selleck fire in him.
0:38:16 I’m like, put a mustache on the guy and,
0:38:18 my gosh, what did you think of that?
0:38:20 Did you, what did you think of that interview?
0:38:21 – I thought it was great.
0:38:22 And I mean, when it’s so clear now
0:38:26 that the only way to be able to do this effectively
0:38:29 is to use their own words against them
0:38:31 or people’s own words.
0:38:33 Like Mike Johnson the weekend before,
0:38:37 you know, Trump does the Arnold Palmer’s
0:38:38 big downstairs thing.
0:38:39 And Mike Johnson was like,
0:38:41 I don’t know what you’re trying to do.
0:38:43 Tapper’s like, okay, well, I’ll just play it for you.
0:38:44 Right, you just sit there
0:38:47 and I will just play this for you.
0:38:48 Just to watch people squirm.
0:38:51 I think almost the optics of it,
0:38:53 oftentimes matter more than the words
0:38:55 where you see how visibly uncomfortable.
0:38:57 And you remember back to the early days of Trump,
0:38:59 even with people like Ted Cruz, right?
0:39:02 Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham, where they just can’t,
0:39:05 like their skin is crawling
0:39:07 and you can see it under their suits, right?
0:39:11 Like trying to be freed from how bad this is.
0:39:14 So I think it’s a very effective way to interview
0:39:15 and what you should be doing.
0:39:17 I mean, Brett did it with Kamala.
0:39:19 He did it with Trump last year or two years ago
0:39:21 and he said, here’s everything that people who worked
0:39:22 for you said about you.
0:39:24 How do you explain that?
0:39:25 Can they all be wrong?
0:39:28 To your point that only four are still supporting him.
0:39:31 But with eight days left,
0:39:35 I worry that nothing matters, except knocking on doors
0:39:37 and doing souls to the polls
0:39:40 and making sure that you’re energizing
0:39:41 the communities that need to turn out.
0:39:44 And Kamala spent all day yesterday in Philadelphia.
0:39:45 She went to church there.
0:39:48 She crisscrossed throughout all the neighborhoods
0:39:51 some very emotional and sweet scenes
0:39:53 of women embracing her and crying.
0:39:56 You know, feeling like it’s not going to be okay
0:40:00 this time around, especially because he’s a lame duck, right?
0:40:03 Like there’s no third Trump term.
0:40:05 Well, I mean, knock on wood, whatever.
0:40:07 Liz Cheney would say would probably try to find a way.
0:40:11 But people have this feeling of desperation
0:40:13 that there will be no guardrails
0:40:14 and you will get no John Kelly’s
0:40:16 that will work for him again.
0:40:20 – Mark Milley is sipping coronas on a beach somewhere, right?
0:40:22 He’s like, I am done with this.
0:40:25 And so who will staff this government?
0:40:28 You see even Miller and Tony Hinchcliffe?
0:40:32 – Yeah, it’s a, I agree with you.
0:40:33 I think at this point it’s,
0:40:35 I love that souls to the polls, feet on the street,
0:40:36 if you will. – Yep.
0:40:38 – All right, Jess, let’s take a quick break.
0:40:39 Stay with us.
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0:42:43 (gentle music)
0:42:44 – Welcome back.
0:42:46 So far, we’ve focused mostly on the presidential race,
0:42:49 but control of the House and Senate is also on the line,
0:42:52 and could have a huge impact on whoever wins the presidency.
0:42:54 Let’s dive into the Senate.
0:42:57 Do you think that Democrats can hold onto the Senate?
0:42:59 Which key races are you watching?
0:43:01 – So no, I don’t.
0:43:03 I’m resigned to it.
0:43:07 John Tester is fabulous, but feels a little done,
0:43:10 even with that crazy story that Chi,
0:43:13 who is running against, lied about where he got shot.
0:43:14 He said he got shot in Afghanistan,
0:43:16 but it was actually in a parking lot,
0:43:18 like outside of a national park.
0:43:22 Which you would think would be completely upending.
0:43:26 – Right, yeah, that’s kind of a key feature of being shot.
0:43:29 I was shot in combat, no, I was shot in the parking lot.
0:43:31 – Right, and we’re talking about Tim Walz
0:43:33 and the stolen baller, right?
0:43:37 Of not filling out the right paperwork on time.
0:43:39 One of the races I’m really interested too, on the Senate.
0:43:43 So Colin Allred has been running a fantastic campaign,
0:43:45 and I feel like we say this regularly,
0:43:48 like this might be the time we get rid of Ted Cruz.
0:43:51 And I don’t really think that,
0:43:54 but Colin Allred is doing so much better
0:43:55 than Beto did with this.
0:43:59 I mean, I think it’s also just who he is,
0:44:00 lands better with people.
0:44:03 And he’s taking on the culture war stuff so brilliantly.
0:44:06 I don’t know if I mentioned on the podcast before,
0:44:10 but he cut an ad saying he’s not for trans women
0:44:11 and women sports.
0:44:13 He’s just like, I played professional football.
0:44:15 This is ludicrous.
0:44:17 Ted Cruz is trying to say this about us.
0:44:20 And a fun fact actually, the number one issue
0:44:23 that Trump has been advertising on is anti-trans issues.
0:44:27 The economy in number five, trans stuff, number one.
0:44:29 So clearly they think they can win a culture war election.
0:44:32 But Colin Allred is within striking distance.
0:44:35 Some polls like two, three points behind.
0:44:36 Big deal, Kamala is there.
0:44:39 He showed up at that rally, spoke as well.
0:44:42 So Beyonce Allred and Kamala,
0:44:43 do you think there’s any shot
0:44:46 or we just keep fantasizing about a world without Ted Cruz?
0:44:49 – Well, the survey conducted by the New York Times
0:44:53 and Santa College shows that Cruz leads with 50% support
0:44:54 to 46 for Allred.
0:44:58 So it’s technically still in the margin of error,
0:45:02 but it feels marginable that,
0:45:04 or there’s a marginal shot here for Allred.
0:45:08 I, Cruz, this strikes me as the vampire of the Senate.
0:45:10 It just, we can’t kill the guy.
0:45:14 And he just feels Texas seems to like him.
0:45:16 And the thing is, if Allred loses,
0:45:19 my sense is Allred has ran almost a near perfect campaign.
0:45:21 The few times I have seen clips,
0:45:24 I’ve thought, wow, is this guy good?
0:45:26 And Cruz just looks so off his game,
0:45:28 like trying to respond to these things.
0:45:31 He’s put them on his heels every time they get together.
0:45:32 He’s had a central casting.
0:45:34 He’s thoughtful.
0:45:35 He comes across.
0:45:37 I would have thought that it,
0:45:39 the bottom line is if Allred can’t be Cruz,
0:45:41 I’m not sure, I think people are just gonna give up.
0:45:42 I think people are gonna,
0:45:44 Democrats are gonna wait till he dies
0:45:46 ’cause I think he’s run a great campaign.
0:45:48 – Or he just needs a bigger podcast deal.
0:45:50 The guy wants to be Joe Rogan
0:45:53 more than he wants to be a senator.
0:45:54 The other race I wanna talk about,
0:45:56 and I think if you don’t know about this guy,
0:45:58 you are going to love him so much
0:46:00 is what’s going on in Nebraska.
0:46:03 So there’s an independent guy named Dan Osborne.
0:46:04 He is a veteran.
0:46:07 He was a labor leader, a mechanic who was running.
0:46:10 He has been a registered independent in his whole life,
0:46:14 Deb Fischer, sitting Republican Senator, two term.
0:46:15 Dan Osborne in the New York Times,
0:46:19 Seattle poll from Monday is within two points of doing this.
0:46:22 Now Mitch McConnell last minute is having to send in
0:46:25 a ton of money, but Dan Osborne, I loved this quote.
0:46:27 And I thought like, does this guy listen to Scott
0:46:29 or does Scott listen to this guy?
0:46:31 He says, you know what I think it’s going to do?
0:46:31 This is if he wins.
0:46:33 If Nebraska does the right thing
0:46:35 and it’ll lack some mechanic to the halls of power,
0:46:38 the rest of the country is gonna say, holy crap,
0:46:39 did you see what Nebraska did?
0:46:42 And it’s going to tell people who are nurses, teachers,
0:46:46 plumbers, carpenters, bus drivers, other mechanics
0:46:48 that you don’t have to be a self-funding crypto billionaire
0:46:50 to run for office.
0:46:53 – Yeah, he’s very strong.
0:46:55 That might be the best.
0:46:57 I’ve already decided that the morning of the sixth,
0:46:59 I’m just gonna keep refreshing the results
0:47:04 on Lake Gallegos just for my own, just to make myself
0:47:05 feel better. – Just to feel good, yeah.
0:47:08 – Just to feel good ’cause it looks like,
0:47:09 it looks like she’s on her way to the feet.
0:47:11 – Yeah, well we’re in Gallegos run an amazing campaign too.
0:47:13 We should, I mean, he’s running against a lunatic,
0:47:17 but he’s done a good job like all right as well.
0:47:20 – I think he’s run a competent campaign.
0:47:22 She will lose this election.
0:47:23 I mean, A, she’s not qualified,
0:47:24 and B, she’s batched crazy.
0:47:27 But anyways, that would be the race you mentioned
0:47:30 in Nebraska, that would be super exciting.
0:47:32 I’m really disappointed about Senator Tester.
0:47:34 I think he’s been a really solid.
0:47:38 I think he’s done a great job of, again, another moderate
0:47:41 where there’s just no home for this person.
0:47:42 I think he’s done a fantastic job
0:47:45 and has really been a great senator.
0:47:47 So let’s get right to it.
0:47:48 So we talked a little bit about the Senate.
0:47:50 What do you think about Congress?
0:47:52 – My association, I’m knocking on wood.
0:47:54 I don’t know if this is real wood or fake wood,
0:47:58 but I knocked on it, is that we’ll take the house back.
0:48:00 And it’s cool to be in New York,
0:48:03 even though I went and voted on our first day
0:48:05 of early voting on Saturday.
0:48:07 Got my kids those future voter stickers.
0:48:10 But my seat, doesn’t matter.
0:48:12 I’m in Dan Goldman’s territory,
0:48:16 but a few really exciting races in New York.
0:48:20 Arguably, we’re the ones that lost it a couple of years ago
0:48:23 when George Santos was even able to take a seat.
0:48:26 So I already mentioned Anthony Giasposito,
0:48:29 who’s running, I think it’s New York four.
0:48:30 He is down.
0:48:34 He hired his mistress and his fiance’s daughter to work.
0:48:36 I think both of them in the same office are very strange.
0:48:37 – At the same time?
0:48:38 – I think so.
0:48:39 – Pretty warm, huh?
0:48:40 Oh, that’s wrong.
0:48:41 That was wrong.
0:48:43 – Yeah, that was wrong.
0:48:44 I actually was gonna try to gloss over it,
0:48:46 but you repeated it twice.
0:48:49 So he seems to be down pretty significantly.
0:48:51 Mike Lawler and Mondair Jones,
0:48:54 that’s an interesting race that has a blackface component
0:48:56 from Mike Lawler dressing up as Michael Jackson,
0:48:59 Mondair Jones, part of the squad.
0:49:03 So that tension going on.
0:49:08 John Avlon running out in the nice, fancy part of the Hamptons
0:49:12 and then also more rural Suffolk County has been fascinating.
0:49:15 He was down only four in the latest polling
0:49:17 and Mark Molinaro upstate.
0:49:19 He only won by 6,000 votes as a Republican.
0:49:22 So there’s potential to take that back
0:49:23 and that’s a rematch as well.
0:49:28 – Yeah, it’s gonna be, does it give you any comfort?
0:49:30 And I don’t wanna be a defeatist,
0:49:35 but say Trump does emerge as the victor here.
0:49:39 Given the map, which was terrible for Democrats this election
0:49:42 and would be much better in 2026
0:49:45 and given that traditionally a midterm election
0:49:48 typically swings way back towards the party
0:49:49 that didn’t win the presidency,
0:49:52 given that it’ll probably be kind of a pretty wonderfully
0:49:54 intransigent government,
0:49:55 which is the reason we have three branches
0:49:57 regardless of what happens.
0:50:00 Do you think Democrats would have any comfort
0:50:03 knowing that most likely 2026
0:50:05 might be a pretty good opportunity
0:50:08 to take back control of the Senate and the House
0:50:09 if there’s a Trump victory?
0:50:13 – I mean, sure.
0:50:16 Yeah, like you’re really grasping at straws.
0:50:18 I don’t think that you can say to any Democrat
0:50:22 with a week out, like will this make you feel better
0:50:23 if Donald Trump is the president?
0:50:25 No, nothing will make me feel better
0:50:26 at least for a really long time.
0:50:28 Winning is great.
0:50:31 I would love to have the opportunity to take back the Senate.
0:50:35 I hope that it’s just a small margin in their side
0:50:39 and that they need JD Vance to be breaking all the ties
0:50:39 and things like that.
0:50:43 But no, I think that people have woken up.
0:50:47 Do you remember, as recline reported,
0:50:50 after he did the first shot across Biden’s bow
0:50:52 where he said, “You should go out then.
0:50:53 We had the State of the Union.”
0:50:54 And then he said, “Oh, maybe I was wrong.”
0:50:55 Then he was like, “Oh, I saw the debate.
0:50:57 I definitely was right.”
0:50:59 But he said that he was getting the sense
0:51:01 that Democrats actually weren’t that scared
0:51:03 about another Trump term.
0:51:05 That there was a lot of bluster,
0:51:07 but in reality, they’d worked with him before.
0:51:10 And there even Bob Casey and Tammy Baldwin
0:51:13 have cut ads talking about working with Trump,
0:51:16 which obviously signals that they are in A, tight races,
0:51:18 but B, that they don’t think
0:51:21 that this is absolutely the end of the world.
0:51:25 I feel like the energy now is where it should be
0:51:27 and that people aren’t being as lax
0:51:31 as they were about the Trump threat.
0:51:33 Do you feel like the energy is at the level
0:51:34 that it should be?
0:51:37 – So this goes into,
0:51:40 I mean, we have to have a,
0:51:42 each of us has to have a prediction here
0:51:43 or something resembling a prediction
0:51:46 and more so than our prediction for the candidate.
0:51:47 What is the underlying element
0:51:50 or the surprise that might happen here?
0:51:52 And I think the energy is very positive
0:51:54 for Harris right now other than,
0:51:58 in this confirmation bias, full disclosure,
0:52:01 there are 10 more, 10 X the number of feet on the street
0:52:03 getting people to the polls,
0:52:06 Democrats versus Republicans.
0:52:09 This election is becoming so tight
0:52:11 and the geographic coverage is so tiny
0:52:13 in terms of what’s going to decide this.
0:52:14 It isn’t even a small number of swing states.
0:52:17 It’s a small number of swing counties
0:52:18 that I think those feet on the street,
0:52:21 this might be the election of podcasts
0:52:25 and of feet of the most analog thing ever.
0:52:26 And that is knocking on a door
0:52:28 and saying the election is today,
0:52:31 have you voted or it’s tomorrow, have you voted?
0:52:34 I remember when I was in San Francisco,
0:52:35 they somehow knew I hadn’t voted
0:52:37 and they knocked on my door three times.
0:52:39 I mean, they literally shamed me.
0:52:39 I was going to vote,
0:52:43 but they shamed me until like they kept showing up saying,
0:52:44 they haven’t voted yet.
0:52:45 – Now is the time.
0:52:45 – Yeah, let’s go now.
0:52:46 Do you want to go now?
0:52:47 Here’s some coffee.
0:52:48 Can I hold your hand?
0:52:49 – Yeah.
0:52:53 – You know, and I do think that that might carry us over.
0:52:56 And then my, and I’ll turn this back to you.
0:52:57 And then the other thing
0:53:00 that I think is the October surprise here,
0:53:02 I think you’re going to hear the name Tony Hinchcliffe
0:53:05 a lot more in the next eight days
0:53:08 and 400,000 Puerto Ricans
0:53:13 in the swing state can’t feel good
0:53:15 about the Republican party right now.
0:53:20 I saw this thing and I thought, wow, that is just,
0:53:23 comedy is the art or art is the ability
0:53:25 to get away with it, to say something.
0:53:26 And I try to do this.
0:53:28 You try to do it occasionally on the five with humor
0:53:32 and that is to say something that is pushes the envelope
0:53:36 but you soften the beach with comedy.
0:53:39 And this was the art of not getting away with it.
0:53:44 He said something blatantly racist and it fell so flat.
0:53:47 It didn’t land so hard
0:53:49 that it was the worst of all worlds for them.
0:53:51 It feeds exactly into the fear people have
0:53:53 about this administration.
0:53:55 And clearly nobody did the math and said,
0:53:58 you realize this is a big constituency
0:54:00 in the most important state.
0:54:05 So my prediction is that I do like what Michelle Obama said
0:54:08 about men need to move to protection
0:54:10 and are you there to protect us
0:54:12 to the feet on the street?
0:54:17 And three, I think this Tony Hinchcliffe debacle might,
0:54:20 if it gets 3,000 people,
0:54:23 I mean, that’s literally what we’re down to at this point.
0:54:27 I think those three things are going to potentially,
0:54:30 I’m predicting this is not only gonna be a win for Harris,
0:54:32 it’s gonna be a decisive win.
0:54:36 And that is a huge proximity bias.
0:54:38 This is me trying to tell myself,
0:54:42 I think I can, I think I can.
0:54:43 I’m a brave strong,
0:54:45 when you see those TikToks of the four-year-old girl
0:54:48 jumping off something and she’s like, I am courageous,
0:54:52 I’m strong, I mean, this is me trying to keep myself saying,
0:54:54 but that’s my prediction.
0:54:56 What are your thoughts eight days out?
0:55:01 – So I am, like I said, I’m having a more optimistic day
0:55:03 and my emotions are all over the place
0:55:06 not to be too female about it.
0:55:09 Unsurprisingly, I have highs and lows
0:55:10 and it usually depends on my blood sugar.
0:55:12 – We have those too.
0:55:12 – No, I know.
0:55:15 – I just turned to alcohol, but anyways, go ahead.
0:55:16 – Yeah, I’m trying to avoid that.
0:55:18 It’s just not great taking care of a baby that way,
0:55:20 but we could get there.
0:55:25 My prediction is that the shy voter of this election
0:55:28 is the right-leaning person.
0:55:33 It’s not the Trump voter that we had in 2016
0:55:35 and to a lesser degree in 2020,
0:55:37 but the right-leaning person
0:55:40 who casts a country over party vote.
0:55:43 And there’s been a lot of very good journalism
0:55:48 from interviews about how many people are saying,
0:55:51 I just can’t do it.
0:55:54 I just can’t vote for him in this scenario.
0:55:56 I don’t love her.
0:56:00 I don’t necessarily think that I know her that well.
0:56:03 And it does keep coming up consistently
0:56:05 that not having a good answer on immigration,
0:56:08 even if immigration is not your big issue,
0:56:11 is something that is very bothersome to people.
0:56:14 And for me, die hard down.
0:56:15 I feel that way as well.
0:56:17 I don’t know how they haven’t figured out
0:56:19 something better to say about that,
0:56:23 but that people are just gonna go in the voting booth
0:56:25 and quietly do their business and vote for Kamala.
0:56:28 Kind of what Brett Stevens articulated
0:56:30 in his, you know, in the conversation
0:56:32 with Gail Collins last weekend when he said it.
0:56:36 So I think that in general,
0:56:38 a black and Latino men in particular
0:56:40 will quote unquote come home.
0:56:43 That Trump will perform better than he did before,
0:56:46 but it won’t be these kinds of huge realignments
0:56:47 that we had been seeing.
0:56:49 But Kamala wins.
0:56:54 There will be a much needed autopsy
0:56:56 on who the Democratic Party is,
0:57:00 because if we manage to pull this off,
0:57:01 if she does win,
0:57:05 because we will have won this on the votes of people
0:57:09 who are not ours for future elections.
0:57:11 If they were on a normal Republican again,
0:57:13 you know, if it’s Glenn Youngkin or somebody,
0:57:16 they’re not with us anymore.
0:57:20 And we need to do a lot of, you know,
0:57:23 good, long-hard thinking about how we have been messaging
0:57:27 to men, to minority voters, in some cases, even to women.
0:57:30 You should always have the highest goals possible.
0:57:34 And I think that I don’t wanna let, you know,
0:57:36 perfect be the enemy of the good.
0:57:38 I hope that we have done good enough,
0:57:41 but Liz Cheney is a rental.
0:57:43 We do not own Liz Cheney.
0:57:46 And I think about that a lot.
0:57:48 – It’s funny ’cause I think if Trump wins,
0:57:51 the Republican Party is literally gonna need
0:57:53 to be totally reconfigured.
0:57:53 – That’s what my husband says.
0:57:55 He’s like, it needs to be blown up.
0:57:56 – Where are they?
0:57:57 – Yeah.
0:57:58 – They would literally have to go.
0:58:01 They’re like, okay, the verdict is in.
0:58:02 There’s no, you know,
0:58:05 turning chicken shit into chicken salad here.
0:58:08 This guy is basically taking the Republican Party down.
0:58:11 When a lot of their issues seem to resonate
0:58:14 and like we kicked out all the old line Republicans,
0:58:16 what is the new, who are the new Republicans?
0:58:17 – It’s J.D. Vance.
0:58:20 Then J.D. Vance really is the future of the party.
0:58:21 – That’s really interesting.
0:58:23 That’s really interesting.
0:58:27 So I wanna read some, just as we wrap up here,
0:58:29 I just wanna read some of your quotes.
0:58:32 I’m there to represent at least of the voting public,
0:58:35 the majority of Americans, Ms. Tarlow said over
0:58:39 a recent breakfast, we, she meant Democrats in 2020,
0:58:40 got 81 million votes.
0:58:42 There are more of me than there are of them.
0:58:45 Her goal, she said, is to inject a Democratic perspective
0:58:48 into the Fox bloodstream while showing viewers
0:58:52 that ideological foes can still get along.
0:58:54 I also wanna win elections, said Ms. Tarlow,
0:58:57 who got her start in politics working for Douglas Shown,
0:59:01 Shane Shown, Shown a Democratic pollster.
0:59:03 And I think that being on the most watched show
0:59:05 is the best place to be.
0:59:10 And then you literally, at some point,
0:59:13 I mean, I do, I really do like you.
0:59:14 So I just kept smiling. – Using my mom wrote it.
0:59:16 – Oh my God. – I got a lot of texts
0:59:17 like that, like did Judy write this?
0:59:19 – Jesus. – Yeah.
0:59:21 – It’s just– – But that’s,
0:59:22 I don’t know, I’ve made this case
0:59:24 and I think I’ve persuaded you a bit about it.
0:59:27 You know, the undecideds are the ones watching Fox
0:59:31 and that is an important reason to be there.
0:59:36 But people want to tune in to see real conversation
0:59:40 and to your souls to the polls point.
0:59:41 There are more of us.
0:59:44 I feel like we run as if there are only like 10 of us
0:59:47 and there are a cajillion of them.
0:59:49 There are more people that agree with our point of view.
0:59:51 So we should be a little bit louder about it
0:59:55 and have better media strategy, which we do not.
0:59:58 I mean, the right crushes us in terms of that,
1:00:00 even though we quote unquote own the culture.
1:00:05 – No, this thing, yeah, I just can’t get over this.
1:00:08 Even that picture, that’s a, I don’t know if I like–
1:00:09 – I mean, it’s a lot of hair and makeup, but–
1:00:11 – I don’t know if the orange tank pantsuit
1:00:12 is what I would have gone with.
1:00:14 – Really? – That is literally,
1:00:16 I mean, you look great, but I’m not sure
1:00:18 what that color– – So then don’t bring me down, man.
1:00:19 That was a great suit.
1:00:23 That is a pastel power suit, if there ever was one.
1:00:26 – That is a Secretary Clinton suit.
1:00:28 – Well, you know how I feel about her, 3D printed doll.
1:00:32 Your profile was insanely nice, too.
1:00:35 – Oh, mine was a headpiece compared to this thing.
1:00:38 Literally, this is, if you ever run for president,
1:00:42 this will be seen as like the launch article.
1:00:46 Oh my gosh, anyways, with that, we’re gonna wrap up here.
1:00:47 That’s all for this episode.
1:00:50 If you have not read this article
1:00:51 and you wanna see what it’s like,
1:00:54 what a puff piece is like,
1:00:57 from everyone’s new favorite Democrat, Jess Tarlov.
1:01:00 Go and just type in the New York Times out, type in Tarlov,
1:01:03 that’s T-A-R-L-O-V, and you’re gonna see
1:01:05 what it’s like to be on the receiving end.
1:01:05 – And how good the suit is.
1:01:10 Also, the 27th was our one year anniversary
1:01:12 when we were on Marr together.
1:01:14 And this piece came out that day.
1:01:15 – I’m so glad you remembered.
1:01:17 – I’m so glad you remembered.
1:01:18 – My husband did, weirdly.
1:01:21 He’s like, “We were on Marr week.”
1:01:22 He didn’t say we, he does not think we.
1:01:24 He said, “We were out in LA for Marr
1:01:27 “and you met Scott a year ago, today.”
1:01:30 – There you go, it’s our one year anniversary, Jess.
1:01:31 – Yeah, it’s been amazing.
1:01:34 – Who would have thought we’d be here
1:01:37 making probably incorrect predictions about all things.
1:01:38 – Yeah, Trump’s definitely gonna win.
1:01:39 – Yeah.
1:01:40 – Yeah, I’m gonna say.
1:01:42 All right, that’s it.
1:01:43 That’s all for this episode.
1:01:44 Thank you for listening to Raging Moderates.
1:01:47 Our producers are Caroline Shagren and David Toledo.
1:01:49 Our technical directors, Drew Burroughs.
1:01:52 You can find Raging Moderates on its own feed every Tuesday.
1:01:56 That’s right, Raging Moderates has its own feed.
1:01:59 Please follow us wherever you get your podcasts.
1:02:00 Jess, have a great rest of the week.
1:02:01 – You too.
1:02:02 – Stay stable.
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1:02:33 Patients with these conditions
1:02:34 before injection are at highest risk.
1:02:37 Don’t receive Botox Cosmetic if you have a skin infection.
1:02:39 Side effects may include allergic reactions,
1:02:41 injection site pain, headache, eyebrow and eyelid drooping
1:02:42 and eyelid swelling.
1:02:43 Allergic reactions can include rash,
1:02:45 welts, asthma symptoms and dizziness.
1:02:47 Tell your doctor about medical history.
1:02:48 Muscle or nerve conditions including ALS
1:02:51 or Lou Gehrig’s disease, myasthenia gravis
1:02:52 or Lambert-Eden syndrome and medications
1:02:54 including botulinum toxins,
1:02:56 as these may increase the risk of serious side effects.
1:02:59 For full safety information, visit botoxcosmetic.com
1:03:02 or call 877-351-0300.
1:03:06 See for yourself at botoxcosmetic.com.
1:03:09 – Robinhood is introducing forecast contracts
1:03:11 so you can trade the presidential election.
1:03:13 Through Robinhood, you can now trade
1:03:14 financial derivatives contracts
1:03:17 on who will win the U.S. presidential election,
1:03:20 Harris or Trump and watch as contract prices
1:03:23 react to real-time market sentiment.
1:03:27 Each contract you own will pay $1 on January 8th, 2025
1:03:28 if that candidate is confirmed
1:03:31 as the next U.S. president by Congress.
1:03:33 Learn more about the presidential election contracts
1:03:38 on Robinhood at www.robinhood.com/election.
1:03:40 The risk of loss and trading commodity interests
1:03:41 can be substantial.
1:03:43 You should therefore carefully consider
1:03:45 whether such trading is suitable for you
1:03:47 in light of your financial condition.
1:03:49 Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.
1:03:52 Commodity interest trading is not appropriate for everyone.
1:03:55 Displayed prices are based on real-time market sentiment.
1:03:58 This event contract is offered by Robinhood Derivatives,
1:04:00 a registered Futures Commission merchant and SWAC firm.
1:04:02 Exchange and regulatory fees apply.
1:04:07 Learn more at www.robinhood.com/election.
1:04:09 (upbeat music)