Raging Moderates: Trump’s Art of No Deals

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0:01:43 Welcome to Raging Moderates.
0:01:44 I’m Scott Galloway.
0:01:45 And I’m Jessica Tarlov.
0:01:47 Jess, have you missed me?
0:01:49 Have you missed me?
0:01:49 Yeah.
0:01:51 And I don’t want to say it again,
0:01:52 but, like, I texted you
0:01:53 and you just didn’t respond.
0:01:54 And it was interesting.
0:01:56 It was in response
0:01:57 to your No Mercy, No Malice column
0:01:59 with extra data for you
0:02:00 to be able to use in your shows.
0:02:01 Oh, really?
0:02:02 It’s okay.
0:02:05 I know you have a scarcity clause
0:02:06 in our contract or whatever,
0:02:07 or in your contract with everybody.
0:02:08 Yeah, I don’t.
0:02:11 I would like a new gestalt in our society
0:02:12 that when you don’t respond
0:02:13 to emails or texts,
0:02:14 it means,
0:02:15 I agree,
0:02:16 what a great email,
0:02:18 drop the mic,
0:02:19 I don’t need to respond.
0:02:21 That’s what the thumbs up
0:02:22 was created for.
0:02:24 100%.
0:02:25 It’s not enough for most women,
0:02:26 I will say,
0:02:27 but at least it means
0:02:29 that you are alive,
0:02:30 that you recognize
0:02:31 that this happened
0:02:32 and that you aren’t upset
0:02:33 about something
0:02:34 because that’s where
0:02:35 the estrogen takes you.
0:02:36 Like, I think,
0:02:36 oh my God,
0:02:38 is Scott in Ibiza
0:02:40 upset about something?
0:02:41 But no,
0:02:41 you were probably just
0:02:43 drinking and hanging.
0:02:44 Oh, see,
0:02:46 I think women are more secure.
0:02:47 I think guys are actually
0:02:47 Have you met women?
0:02:48 more insecure
0:02:49 and women,
0:02:51 because women have so much
0:02:53 practice ghosting men.
0:02:54 I think they respect
0:02:55 the slow fade.
0:02:57 I think they respect
0:02:57 the, like,
0:02:58 the polite,
0:03:00 I’m winding down
0:03:01 this dialogue,
0:03:02 whereas men,
0:03:03 especially powerful men,
0:03:04 are used to everyone
0:03:06 responding back
0:03:06 and, you know,
0:03:08 licking them up and down.
0:03:08 And I’m,
0:03:10 I find,
0:03:11 and I’m virtually signaling,
0:03:12 but it’s true,
0:03:14 the more important the person,
0:03:15 the less likely I am
0:03:16 to respond,
0:03:17 because I have spent
0:03:18 my entire career,
0:03:19 Jess,
0:03:20 responding
0:03:22 to powerful people,
0:03:23 whether it’s writing
0:03:23 their speeches,
0:03:24 doing their presentations
0:03:25 for boards,
0:03:26 or telling them
0:03:27 what decisions to make,
0:03:28 or whatever it is.
0:03:30 And now I am done.
0:03:31 I am done
0:03:33 renting my brain
0:03:34 to rich white dudes.
0:03:35 I’m done.
0:03:35 Oh.
0:03:36 Anyways,
0:03:36 probably more than you
0:03:37 were bargaining for.
0:03:38 A little bit.
0:03:39 Back to you.
0:03:40 How are your children?
0:03:41 Oh,
0:03:42 so nice of you to ask.
0:03:43 They are great.
0:03:44 I got some
0:03:45 cute photos
0:03:46 from last week.
0:03:47 I won’t send them to you
0:03:48 because it won’t matter,
0:03:49 probably.
0:03:50 But, uh,
0:03:50 don’t care.
0:03:51 They’re really good.
0:03:53 We’re getting very comfortable
0:03:54 in the pool,
0:03:54 which is important,
0:03:56 the water safety skills.
0:03:56 Oh, God.
0:03:58 It’s so scary
0:04:00 when you’re around water,
0:04:01 which I’m a city kid,
0:04:03 and we don’t have a pool,
0:04:03 obviously, here.
0:04:05 But it’s the scariest thing
0:04:05 in the world
0:04:06 to think that they could
0:04:07 just fall in
0:04:08 when you turn your head
0:04:08 or you’re not,
0:04:08 you know,
0:04:09 they get out of the house
0:04:10 somehow, so.
0:04:11 Oh,
0:04:12 your instincts there
0:04:12 are correct
0:04:13 and common sense.
0:04:15 I have personal experience
0:04:15 with this.
0:04:17 I saw my job
0:04:17 as a father
0:04:18 of young children
0:04:19 to do two things.
0:04:20 Bring home the bacon
0:04:21 and, two,
0:04:22 keep the kids away
0:04:23 from any body of water.
0:04:25 And when we first
0:04:26 moved to Florida,
0:04:27 I was out and back
0:04:28 and my son,
0:04:29 who was,
0:04:30 he was like three or four
0:04:31 and we were out in the back,
0:04:32 he was playing in the pool
0:04:34 and he went to the deep end
0:04:34 and jumped in
0:04:36 and started flailing around
0:04:36 and I was there
0:04:37 so I could jump in
0:04:38 and fish him out.
0:04:39 And I thought,
0:04:40 if I had just gone in
0:04:41 for some water,
0:04:44 if I had just taken a call
0:04:45 and wandered around
0:04:46 the side of the house.
0:04:48 Anyways,
0:04:49 you’re right to be paranoid
0:04:50 about that.
0:04:50 And then,
0:04:52 one summer,
0:04:52 I forget where we were,
0:04:54 we even bought those devices
0:04:55 that you put on their shirts
0:04:57 and when the device
0:04:58 senses water
0:04:59 and alarm goes off
0:05:00 and the alarm went off
0:05:01 on a Sunday
0:05:01 and we’re all like
0:05:03 running around the house
0:05:03 looking for a kid
0:05:04 and a body of water
0:05:06 and someone put the shirt
0:05:07 in the laundry.
0:05:08 I don’t know how
0:05:09 I got here, Jess.
0:05:09 Did I tell you
0:05:10 I’m in Ibiza?
0:05:11 You did,
0:05:12 but now you’re telling everybody
0:05:13 it looks nice
0:05:14 or looks fine.
0:05:15 I’m in Ibiza,
0:05:17 where there are
0:05:18 a ton of young men
0:05:19 who have not earned
0:05:20 their wealth
0:05:20 and are spending
0:05:21 their father’s money
0:05:22 and have some intricate story
0:05:23 about the real job
0:05:24 they supposedly have
0:05:25 and it’s obvious
0:05:26 within about 10 seconds
0:05:26 they’re just,
0:05:28 they’ve got a rich dad
0:05:29 and they bring
0:05:30 a bunch of women,
0:05:30 you know,
0:05:31 looking to be sponsored
0:05:32 by the son.
0:05:34 There’s so many sexist,
0:05:34 classist things
0:05:35 I just made in that statement
0:05:36 but I’m holding by it.
0:05:37 But I do love it here.
0:05:38 They’re also all true
0:05:39 about it there.
0:05:40 I went once,
0:05:41 I was 30
0:05:42 and I was the only person
0:05:44 who wasn’t on Molly
0:05:45 when we went out
0:05:48 and it’s something to behold
0:05:49 watching people
0:05:50 on Molly
0:05:53 dancing for five hours straight.
0:05:54 Like we had just started
0:05:55 getting step counters,
0:05:56 you know,
0:05:57 like people were paying attention
0:05:58 to the number of steps
0:05:58 and then you see that
0:06:00 someone did like 40,000 steps
0:06:01 overnight
0:06:02 and you know
0:06:02 they had a good night.
0:06:04 Yeah,
0:06:04 I’m not going to say
0:06:05 whether or not
0:06:05 I take Molly
0:06:06 but a couple nights ago
0:06:07 at the Black Coffee
0:06:07 DJ said,
0:06:09 I found I really like me.
0:06:11 I really felt good about me
0:06:12 all of a sudden.
0:06:13 All right, Jess,
0:06:15 today we’re talking about
0:06:15 the new phase
0:06:16 of Trump’s trade war.
0:06:17 That was a segue.
0:06:19 The GOP trying to sell
0:06:19 their new bill
0:06:21 and Elon Musk’s
0:06:22 new third party.
0:06:23 Jesus Christ,
0:06:24 you fucking attention monster.
0:06:25 Could you be more addicted
0:06:27 to ketamine
0:06:27 or attention,
0:06:28 you fucking weirdo?
0:06:29 All right,
0:06:29 let’s get into it.
0:06:31 Now that the White House
0:06:32 has pushed its big
0:06:33 legislative package
0:06:34 across the finish line,
0:06:36 it’s turning its attention
0:06:37 back to the global trade war
0:06:38 with a fresh dose
0:06:39 of confusion,
0:06:39 deadlines,
0:06:40 and diplomatic drama
0:06:43 after a 90-day tariff pause
0:06:44 that produced
0:06:45 only a few shaky deals.
0:06:47 That is generous
0:06:48 to describe
0:06:49 what has happened
0:06:49 with the U.K.
0:06:50 By the way,
0:06:51 let’s just talk about
0:06:51 this U.K. deal.
0:06:52 A reduction in tariffs
0:06:54 on the Austin Martin engines
0:06:55 and Rolls-Royce engines.
0:06:55 Wow,
0:06:56 that’s going to change
0:06:56 the economy.
0:06:59 After a 90-day tariff pause
0:06:59 that produced
0:07:00 only a few
0:07:01 of these deals
0:07:03 with the U.K.,
0:07:03 Vietnam,
0:07:04 and China,
0:07:04 although I wouldn’t
0:07:05 even call them deals.
0:07:06 I’m still pretty angry
0:07:07 about this.
0:07:08 There are agreements
0:07:08 or structures
0:07:09 to talk about a deal.
0:07:10 Trump says the U.S.
0:07:10 is ready
0:07:11 to turn up the pressure.
0:07:13 Oh, God.
0:07:14 Hold my beer, bitch.
0:07:14 That is literally
0:07:15 what the world
0:07:16 is saying to this guy
0:07:16 right now.
0:07:18 Starting August 1st,
0:07:20 steep import duties,
0:07:21 some as high as 70%,
0:07:22 are set to kick in.
0:07:24 Yeah, sure they are.
0:07:25 Sure they are.
0:07:26 Mr. Trump
0:07:27 owe his chickens out.
0:07:27 That process
0:07:29 began in earnest Monday
0:07:31 when President Trump
0:07:32 fired off tariff letters
0:07:32 to the leaders
0:07:33 of 14 countries,
0:07:34 including Japan,
0:07:34 South Korea,
0:07:34 Malaysia,
0:07:35 and South Africa.
0:07:37 These letters spell out
0:07:38 new country-specific tariffs,
0:07:40 I guess from some intern
0:07:42 that has a chat GPT account,
0:07:44 ranging from 25%
0:07:45 to 40%,
0:07:46 and warned that rates
0:07:48 could even go higher
0:07:48 if those countries
0:07:49 retaliate.
0:07:50 At the same time,
0:07:51 Trump signed
0:07:52 an executive action
0:07:53 pushing back the deadline
0:07:55 for most reciprocal tariffs
0:07:56 with, oh,
0:07:57 pushed back the deadline.
0:07:59 My red lines
0:08:00 are kind of a beige
0:08:01 invisible line,
0:08:03 said Trump over and over,
0:08:04 with the exception of China
0:08:06 to August 1st.
0:08:07 The move buys more time
0:08:08 for negotiations.
0:08:09 In other words,
0:08:10 I’m folding yet again,
0:08:11 said Donald Trump
0:08:12 to the world,
0:08:13 but not by much.
0:08:14 Now businesses
0:08:15 are bracing for impact,
0:08:16 markets are jittery,
0:08:17 and major questions remain.
0:08:19 Will Canada’s
0:08:20 July 21st deadline hold?
0:08:21 What happens
0:08:22 when the China truce
0:08:24 expires August 12th?
0:08:25 And is this strategy
0:08:28 or just more bullshit,
0:08:28 jazz hands,
0:08:30 false, empty threats?
0:08:30 Jess,
0:08:32 what do you make
0:08:33 of this new phase
0:08:34 of, let’s call it
0:08:35 the tariff limbo?
0:08:37 It’s the same as usual
0:08:38 in that it just feels
0:08:40 deeply unserious.
0:08:41 And this has
0:08:43 an exclamation point
0:08:44 after unserious
0:08:45 or a crescendo
0:08:46 because these letters
0:08:47 letters that he sent
0:08:48 to foreign leaders
0:08:49 were just like
0:08:51 true social posts
0:08:52 on letterhead.
0:08:53 It was like written
0:08:55 by a 14-year-old boy.
0:08:56 He’s capitalizing
0:08:57 random words.
0:08:58 His grammar
0:08:59 makes no sense.
0:09:00 He’s misgendering
0:09:01 certain leaders.
0:09:03 They fixed that, though.
0:09:04 Her Excellency
0:09:05 became a dear
0:09:05 Mr. President
0:09:07 within a few hours.
0:09:09 But there’s always
0:09:10 been an opportunity
0:09:11 for the Trump administration
0:09:13 to take the layup
0:09:14 on this trade war
0:09:14 because when they
0:09:15 buy themselves
0:09:16 more time,
0:09:16 they could just
0:09:17 back out.
0:09:18 And no one would
0:09:19 really say anything
0:09:19 because they’d just
0:09:20 be quietly relieved.
0:09:21 Like, everyone over
0:09:22 at CNBC would be like,
0:09:23 thank God.
0:09:24 Right?
0:09:25 We can just get back
0:09:25 to being normal.
0:09:26 And you could talk
0:09:27 about tariffs on China,
0:09:28 which everyone
0:09:29 broadly agrees with,
0:09:30 and the Biden
0:09:31 administration did as well.
0:09:32 They even jacked up
0:09:33 Trump’s tariffs
0:09:34 on China threefold
0:09:36 and just focus on people
0:09:38 that are actually
0:09:40 at war with us
0:09:40 in some way
0:09:41 or another.
0:09:43 But these blanket
0:09:43 tariffs,
0:09:44 these violations
0:09:45 of, by the way,
0:09:46 free trade agreements,
0:09:47 which creates
0:09:48 larger questions
0:09:49 around what Donald
0:09:50 Trump thinks Congress
0:09:51 actually does
0:09:52 or if he values it
0:09:53 at all,
0:09:53 which, I mean,
0:09:54 he doesn’t,
0:09:54 as we’ve seen
0:09:55 time and time again.
0:09:56 But like on South Korea,
0:09:57 we have a free trade
0:09:57 agreement.
0:09:59 It’s not up to you
0:10:00 what you do with them.
0:10:01 I just,
0:10:02 I don’t want to see
0:10:03 Scott Besson anymore.
0:10:04 Like, this guy
0:10:05 who was supposed
0:10:05 to be the adult
0:10:06 in the room
0:10:07 making the rounds
0:10:08 on the Sunday shows,
0:10:08 then he’s all
0:10:10 over CNBC on Monday
0:10:12 and he’s so smug
0:10:15 and he’s telling us
0:10:16 to not believe
0:10:16 our lion eyes
0:10:17 about what’s going on.
0:10:18 You know,
0:10:19 we had 90 deals
0:10:20 in 90 days.
0:10:21 That’s over.
0:10:22 Peter Navarro says,
0:10:23 oh, I’m very happy
0:10:24 with where we are.
0:10:24 I don’t know how
0:10:26 that’s physically possible
0:10:26 if you said we were
0:10:27 getting 90 deals
0:10:28 in 90 days.
0:10:29 And then we had
0:10:30 Trump in April.
0:10:30 I’m telling you,
0:10:31 these countries
0:10:32 are calling up.
0:10:33 They’re kissing my ass.
0:10:33 They’re dying
0:10:34 to make a deal.
0:10:35 Please, please, sir,
0:10:35 make a deal.
0:10:36 I’ll do anything, sir.
0:10:37 And when he talks like that,
0:10:39 you know that it’s hyperbole.
0:10:40 But now Besson
0:10:41 has admitted as much
0:10:42 that a lot of those countries
0:10:43 didn’t even call us.
0:10:44 And people understand
0:10:45 that you just kind of
0:10:46 sit back and wait
0:10:46 to see what happens.
0:10:48 Because even if you were
0:10:49 to make a plan
0:10:50 that goes along
0:10:51 with what they want
0:10:53 for you to be doing,
0:10:53 right,
0:10:53 that they want you
0:10:54 to build a factory
0:10:55 or whatever,
0:10:56 they’re not giving you
0:10:57 enough time to do it
0:10:59 to any execution whatsoever
0:11:00 because in 10 days
0:11:00 it just changes.
0:11:01 So if I were
0:11:02 these other countries,
0:11:03 I would just sit back
0:11:04 and kind of wait
0:11:05 and see what happens
0:11:06 and hope that he gets
0:11:07 distracted by something
0:11:09 and just keep buying yourself
0:11:10 more and more time.
0:11:11 What do you think?
0:11:14 Yeah, so the entity
0:11:15 which has become
0:11:16 sort of a better
0:11:17 predictor engine
0:11:19 than political pundits
0:11:21 or CNN or Fox
0:11:22 is the markets.
0:11:23 And basically the markets
0:11:25 don’t believe
0:11:26 the tariffs are going
0:11:27 to change that much.
0:11:29 I mean, to be clear,
0:11:30 and I’m a bit
0:11:31 of a catastrophist,
0:11:31 I thought this was
0:11:32 really going to hurt
0:11:32 the markets.
0:11:33 And the markets
0:11:34 have basically said
0:11:35 the tariffs are going
0:11:36 to look remarkably
0:11:37 similar to the way
0:11:37 they did before.
0:11:38 They’re just,
0:11:39 the markets aren’t
0:11:40 worried about this nonsense.
0:11:42 And I did some analysis
0:11:43 because I was very excited
0:11:44 about coming back
0:11:45 to raging moderates.
0:11:47 And I’m fairly certain
0:11:50 that by dollar volume,
0:11:51 there have been
0:11:52 more deals struck
0:11:53 since the president
0:11:55 announced his new
0:11:56 tariff policy,
0:11:57 or what I’ll call threats,
0:11:58 between countries
0:12:00 that are non-U.S.
0:12:02 and that is the threats
0:12:03 of tariffs have actually
0:12:05 inspired a great deal
0:12:06 of deal-making,
0:12:08 just not between the U.S.
0:12:08 and the people
0:12:09 we’ve threatened.
0:12:11 What it’s done
0:12:12 is it’s sent a message
0:12:13 to non-U.S.
0:12:14 countries
0:12:16 that they can’t count
0:12:17 on this incredible
0:12:18 trade relationship
0:12:19 they used to have
0:12:20 with the United States,
0:12:21 which has inspired them
0:12:22 to begin speaking
0:12:23 to each other
0:12:24 and rerouting
0:12:25 their supply chain,
0:12:26 including dialogue
0:12:27 and agreements
0:12:28 around the U.S.
0:12:29 to a few of those.
0:12:31 Vietnam and South Korea
0:12:32 have announced
0:12:33 a $150 billion
0:12:34 more balanced
0:12:35 and sustainable
0:12:36 trade relationship
0:12:37 as they swear
0:12:38 cooperation
0:12:40 following Trump’s tariffs.
0:12:42 EU has struck
0:12:43 more deals
0:12:44 with China,
0:12:45 with Canada,
0:12:46 with India,
0:12:48 the EU
0:12:49 and Mercosur,
0:12:50 a bunch of the
0:12:52 Southeast Asian nations
0:12:53 are talking.
0:12:54 For the first time,
0:12:54 Japan,
0:12:55 South Korea,
0:12:56 and China.
0:12:57 We tend to,
0:12:58 as Americans,
0:12:59 you know,
0:13:00 we’re fairly narcissistic.
0:13:00 We just go,
0:13:01 oh, Asia,
0:13:02 and we think
0:13:02 they’re all the same.
0:13:04 Japan,
0:13:04 South Korea,
0:13:05 and China
0:13:06 are not in love
0:13:06 with each other.
0:13:08 They do not like
0:13:08 each other.
0:13:10 And they are talking
0:13:12 for the first time
0:13:13 about closer ties.
0:13:13 Why?
0:13:15 Because their attitude
0:13:16 is these people,
0:13:18 we can’t count
0:13:19 on this great trading
0:13:20 or pre-existing
0:13:21 trading relationship,
0:13:22 so let’s start
0:13:22 discussing.
0:13:23 So in sum,
0:13:25 Trump did inspire
0:13:27 a great deal
0:13:28 of deal-making,
0:13:30 just not among us
0:13:31 between nations
0:13:32 he’s threatened,
0:13:33 between them
0:13:34 and each other.
0:13:35 Sounds like
0:13:35 what goes on
0:13:36 on foreign policy
0:13:37 as well.
0:13:37 You know,
0:13:39 he did admittedly
0:13:39 have a good
0:13:40 NATO summit
0:13:42 and maybe he’s
0:13:42 going to get
0:13:43 the 5% commitment
0:13:44 in terms of
0:13:45 defense spending
0:13:46 from some nations,
0:13:47 but we know
0:13:48 with the position
0:13:49 that the U.S.
0:13:49 has taken
0:13:50 on Ukraine,
0:13:50 for instance,
0:13:52 that the EU
0:13:53 gets together
0:13:53 with Ukraine
0:13:54 without us
0:13:55 on a pretty
0:13:56 regular basis.
0:13:57 You know,
0:13:57 it’s a go-it-alone
0:13:58 strategy that
0:13:59 we’ve taken
0:14:00 and we’re seeing
0:14:01 the repercussions
0:14:01 of it.
0:14:02 The question
0:14:03 will be
0:14:04 what happens
0:14:04 at home
0:14:06 in terms of
0:14:06 how the American
0:14:07 public feels
0:14:07 about this.
0:14:08 And we know
0:14:08 that Trump’s
0:14:09 disapproval on trade
0:14:10 has skyrocketed
0:14:11 from January.
0:14:13 It was 40%.
0:14:14 Now it’s up
0:14:14 to 54%.
0:14:16 I saw one survey
0:14:16 that actually
0:14:17 had a 65%
0:14:18 disapproval.
0:14:19 The American
0:14:20 public knows
0:14:20 that tariffs
0:14:21 are a tax
0:14:22 on them
0:14:23 because they’re
0:14:24 people that go
0:14:24 out and buy
0:14:25 things.
0:14:25 A lot of them
0:14:26 small business
0:14:27 owners who have
0:14:28 no idea how
0:14:28 to make a plan
0:14:29 for their future
0:14:31 or that they
0:14:31 think that they
0:14:31 can even stay
0:14:32 in business
0:14:33 for the next
0:14:33 six months.
0:14:35 What I saw
0:14:36 that feels
0:14:36 like a bit
0:14:37 of a watershed
0:14:37 moment,
0:14:38 and I didn’t
0:14:38 realize that
0:14:39 this transition
0:14:40 hadn’t happened
0:14:40 yet,
0:14:41 but in the
0:14:42 last month,
0:14:43 Trump voters
0:14:44 have started
0:14:45 saying that this
0:14:45 is Trump’s
0:14:46 economy.
0:14:47 So essentially
0:14:47 this feels
0:14:48 like a reset
0:14:49 moment for the
0:14:50 administration.
0:14:51 So he’s been
0:14:51 in for six
0:14:52 months.
0:14:52 But if you
0:14:53 consider that it’s
0:14:54 only like in the
0:14:54 last few weeks
0:14:56 actually that people
0:14:56 who went out
0:14:57 and voted for him
0:14:59 in November are
0:14:59 saying that he
0:15:00 owns this economy,
0:15:01 it’s a bit of a
0:15:02 blank slate.
0:15:03 And so this new
0:15:04 set of tariffs
0:15:05 and whatever is
0:15:06 to come going
0:15:07 forward in terms
0:15:08 of the economy
0:15:08 is actually going
0:15:09 to be what
0:15:10 Democrats need
0:15:10 to be paying
0:15:11 attention to
0:15:12 and what we’re
0:15:12 going to have
0:15:13 to work for
0:15:13 for the midterm.
0:15:14 So that’s like
0:15:15 18 months versus
0:15:17 24 months of
0:15:18 actual runway
0:15:18 there.
0:15:19 And I was
0:15:20 surprised to
0:15:20 see it.
0:15:21 I know that
0:15:21 everyone, you
0:15:21 know, you
0:15:22 have your
0:15:23 horses and
0:15:23 because you
0:15:24 like this
0:15:24 guy, you
0:15:24 say, oh, it’s
0:15:25 not his
0:15:25 fault.
0:15:26 And all
0:15:26 presidents do
0:15:27 that, right?
0:15:27 They say, you
0:15:27 know, I’m
0:15:28 cleaning up the
0:15:28 mess of the
0:15:29 last guy.
0:15:30 It’s not true
0:15:30 all the time
0:15:30 when they say
0:15:31 it, but they
0:15:32 certainly do.
0:15:33 But I think
0:15:34 that’s a very
0:15:36 different perspective
0:15:36 that we’re going
0:15:37 into this now
0:15:38 where people are
0:15:39 saying Donald
0:15:40 Trump is fully
0:15:41 in control of the
0:15:42 United States of
0:15:42 America now.
0:15:43 And what does
0:15:44 that look like?
0:15:44 It looks like the
0:15:45 one beautiful bill,
0:15:46 which we’re going
0:15:46 to talk about.
0:15:50 trade wars that
0:15:50 are really going
0:15:51 to hurt the
0:15:52 American economy.
0:15:53 I do think it’s
0:15:54 interesting about the
0:15:54 market.
0:15:55 You know, the
0:15:56 ticker is always
0:15:56 running on Fox,
0:15:57 and I, well, I’m
0:15:58 in hair and makeup
0:15:59 for an hour because
0:16:00 it takes a long
0:16:01 time to attach
0:16:02 those fake eyelashes
0:16:03 and bring my hair
0:16:04 closer to God.
0:16:05 You know, I’m
0:16:06 always watching the
0:16:06 direction of things,
0:16:07 and there were
0:16:08 certainly a lot of
0:16:08 very positive
0:16:09 green days.
0:16:11 But yesterday, as
0:16:12 these letters were
0:16:12 trickling in, you
0:16:13 see it go into the
0:16:14 red, and I’m
0:16:15 watching Liz Klayman,
0:16:16 who we both love,
0:16:18 on Fox Business, and
0:16:19 talking to her guests
0:16:20 about what’s going
0:16:20 on in their
0:16:21 companies and how
0:16:22 they’re planning.
0:16:23 And they’re saying
0:16:24 something very similar
0:16:25 to what you said,
0:16:27 which is they’re
0:16:28 making plans for it,
0:16:29 but they’re not
0:16:29 thinking that it’s
0:16:30 the be-all and
0:16:31 end-all.
0:16:32 And I really wish
0:16:34 that more CEOs of
0:16:35 companies, like the
0:16:36 CEO of Ford, sat
0:16:37 down with Lara
0:16:38 Trump and actually
0:16:40 told her why
0:16:40 you need to get
0:16:41 some of these
0:16:42 parts from other
0:16:42 countries and how
0:16:44 unfeasible, is it
0:16:45 unfeasible or
0:16:45 infeasible?
0:16:46 Yes.
0:16:48 How it is not
0:16:49 feasible to totally
0:16:50 produce these cars
0:16:52 on American soil is
0:16:52 what you have to do.
0:16:53 You have to do it
0:16:54 with the kid gloves.
0:16:54 You have to do it
0:16:55 as nicely as
0:16:56 possible, but you
0:16:57 have to show up and
0:16:57 you have to look
0:16:58 these people in the
0:16:59 eye and just say
0:17:00 it’s not possible.
0:17:01 Yeah, if they were
0:17:02 really serious, well,
0:17:04 okay, so the F-150,
0:17:06 I think, goes across
0:17:06 the Canadian or
0:17:07 Mexican border back
0:17:08 and forth or
0:17:08 components of it
0:17:09 like 12 times.
0:17:11 It’s not even clear
0:17:11 how you would even
0:17:12 force these tariffs.
0:17:13 And two, if we were
0:17:15 really interested in
0:17:16 more domestic
0:17:17 manufacturing around
0:17:17 the automobile
0:17:18 industry, we
0:17:19 wouldn’t have cut
0:17:19 those subsidies to
0:17:20 EVs because the
0:17:21 most vertical
0:17:22 automobile manufacturer
0:17:23 is Tesla because
0:17:24 it has dramatically
0:17:25 fewer parts that can
0:17:26 be manufactured and
0:17:27 milled domestically.
0:17:29 And while I’m
0:17:29 loathe to give any
0:17:31 credit to Elon Musk
0:17:33 companies, EVs, if
0:17:33 you were really
0:17:34 interested about having
0:17:35 more domestic
0:17:36 production and
0:17:36 dramatically
0:17:37 simplifying the
0:17:38 supply chain, you
0:17:39 wouldn’t be halting
0:17:40 the EV tax
0:17:41 credits.
0:17:42 What I did find
0:17:43 interesting recently
0:17:45 was that Chairman
0:17:46 Powell at an
0:17:47 economic conference
0:17:48 basically came out
0:17:48 and said, if it
0:17:49 wasn’t for the
0:17:50 tariffs and the
0:17:51 insecurity that the
0:17:52 tariffs are creating
0:17:54 around the possibility
0:17:55 of inflation, if he
0:17:56 actually follows
0:17:57 through on his
0:17:58 threats, which looks
0:17:59 less and less likely
0:18:00 every day as he
0:18:01 continues to
0:18:01 threaten, fold,
0:18:03 threaten, fold,
0:18:04 threaten, see above,
0:18:06 fold, that he
0:18:07 said, we would
0:18:08 have lowered
0:18:08 interest rates
0:18:09 already.
0:18:11 And so, effectively,
0:18:12 the entire economy
0:18:13 is paying a tax of
0:18:14 somewhere between,
0:18:15 call it, 25 and
0:18:16 100 basis points on
0:18:18 your credit cards,
0:18:18 your student loan
0:18:19 payments, your
0:18:20 mortgage payments,
0:18:21 because we would be
0:18:22 in a rate-cutting
0:18:24 cycle right now had
0:18:24 it not been for
0:18:26 someone who is a lot
0:18:26 smarter than anyone
0:18:27 on the administration’s
0:18:28 current economic
0:18:29 team, had he not
0:18:30 said, we have to
0:18:31 wait and see if
0:18:31 these tariffs go
0:18:32 through and the
0:18:32 inflationary
0:18:33 impact they have
0:18:34 before we start
0:18:35 cutting interest
0:18:36 rates, because if
0:18:37 all of a sudden
0:18:39 everything gets
0:18:40 more expensive and
0:18:41 we cut interest
0:18:42 rates and people
0:18:43 get horny about
0:18:44 borrowing money and
0:18:45 buying more shit
0:18:46 and there’s more
0:18:47 money chasing fewer
0:18:48 things and we
0:18:49 start this upward
0:18:50 doom loop of
0:18:51 price where people
0:18:53 start panic buying
0:18:53 because they think
0:18:54 things are going to
0:18:54 get more and more
0:18:56 expensive, you know,
0:18:57 upward inflationary
0:18:58 cycles, unless they
0:18:59 are cauterized early,
0:19:00 can spin out of
0:19:00 control.
0:19:01 And that’s how
0:19:01 nations fail.
0:19:02 Be clear, inflation
0:19:03 is how nations go
0:19:04 out of business.
0:19:06 And so the adult in
0:19:06 the room, Chairman
0:19:07 Powell, has said, he
0:19:08 just came right out
0:19:09 and said it and
0:19:10 said the threat of
0:19:12 the tariffs is why I
0:19:13 have not already cut
0:19:14 rates and why we are
0:19:15 kind of sitting and
0:19:16 waiting.
0:19:18 So be clear, these
0:19:19 tariffs have yet to
0:19:20 take hold in terms
0:19:21 of consumer prices or
0:19:22 inflation because no
0:19:23 one is taking them
0:19:24 seriously because of
0:19:26 the track record of
0:19:27 the president folding,
0:19:28 but it’s already
0:19:31 costing us a great deal
0:19:32 of incremental capital
0:19:33 because interest rates
0:19:35 are probably 25 to 100
0:19:36 bips higher than they
0:19:37 would be had we had a
0:19:38 responsible economic
0:19:39 policy such that the
0:19:40 chairman having beaten
0:19:41 back COVID, having
0:19:43 beaten back inflation
0:19:44 from the supply chain
0:19:46 shocks of COVID and of
0:19:47 Russia’s invasion of
0:19:48 Ukraine, we’d be in a
0:19:49 rate-cutting cycle.
0:19:50 And we’re not because
0:19:52 Chairman Powell correctly
0:19:54 is waiting to see if
0:19:54 these head-up-your-ass
0:19:56 economic policies
0:19:58 companies actually get
0:20:00 traction and register an
0:20:01 impact on the economy.
0:20:02 There’s also a mental
0:20:04 health and paralysis
0:20:06 impact of this as well.
0:20:07 I understand it’s not as
0:20:08 easy to quantify that, but
0:20:09 you have millions of
0:20:10 Americans that essentially
0:20:13 are stuck wondering what
0:20:14 tomorrow, a month from now,
0:20:16 six months from now, are
0:20:16 going to look like.
0:20:18 And that’s everyone who
0:20:19 just needs to buy food for
0:20:21 dinner to someone who has
0:20:22 to run a business.
0:20:25 Yeah, businesses big and
0:20:25 small.
0:20:26 Walmart has said that they
0:20:28 can’t even do, you know,
0:20:30 Q3, Q4 planning because
0:20:32 they don’t know what it’s
0:20:33 going to look like.
0:20:35 And bringing your country,
0:20:37 the engine of the most
0:20:39 powerful country in the
0:20:41 world to a halt because
0:20:44 you want to send strange
0:20:46 letters to heads of state
0:20:47 or you have a bee in your
0:20:49 bonnet about something
0:20:51 that most economists worth
0:20:52 their salt is telling you
0:20:54 is not the way to be
0:20:55 running our country and
0:20:56 certainly not the way to
0:20:57 get the kinds of results
0:20:59 that you are after is an
0:21:01 incredible amount of ego
0:21:02 or hubris.
0:21:02 I don’t even know what
0:21:03 the right term for it is,
0:21:05 but, you know, he was
0:21:06 elected by all of these
0:21:07 people that were laser
0:21:08 focused on lowering
0:21:09 prices.
0:21:10 That was it, right?
0:21:11 They showed up.
0:21:12 Obviously, immigration
0:21:13 voters were about an
0:21:14 eighth of his voters, so
0:21:15 that was the number one
0:21:16 reason.
0:21:17 But in general, people
0:21:18 wanted lower prices.
0:21:20 After a Biden term, he
0:21:21 brought down inflation, but
0:21:21 it was a hugely
0:21:22 inflationary period for
0:21:23 us and for the rest of
0:21:24 the world.
0:21:25 And you look at all of
0:21:26 the actions that he’s
0:21:27 taken and they’re
0:21:29 diametrically opposed to
0:21:30 the goal of lowering
0:21:30 prices.
0:21:32 And Chairman Powell, just
0:21:33 man of steel, right?
0:21:36 This guy just gets up
0:21:37 there and he says exactly
0:21:38 what he wants to say.
0:21:40 He doesn’t sugarcoat any
0:21:40 of it.
0:21:41 There’s the predictable
0:21:42 response that Trump gets
0:21:43 on social media and
0:21:44 interview, whatever it is,
0:21:45 and says, Powell’s got to
0:21:45 go.
0:21:47 You know, he’s bad for
0:21:48 America, et cetera.
0:21:50 But I really admire
0:21:51 someone who is so
0:21:54 fearless in saying
0:21:54 what’s true.
0:21:56 There are a lot of
0:21:57 people who I feel like
0:21:58 are trying to play some
0:22:00 sort of game about how
0:22:01 they treat Trump, right?
0:22:02 They’re either nicer in
0:22:03 for this or they want to
0:22:05 get this kind of reaction.
0:22:06 So they do, you know,
0:22:07 zigzagging around with
0:22:07 it.
0:22:08 And Powell’s just such a
0:22:09 straight shooter about
0:22:10 it.
0:22:11 You know, he says, if you
0:22:12 do this one thing
0:22:13 differently, then I’m
0:22:14 going to be able to give
0:22:15 you the thing that you
0:22:16 want.
0:22:18 And there’s so little
0:22:19 directness, I feel like,
0:22:21 in society right now that
0:22:23 I really love it when I
0:22:24 see it.
0:22:25 And it’s easy for someone
0:22:26 as an analyst to be able
0:22:28 to glom onto that because
0:22:29 you say this is a serious
0:22:30 person who knows what
0:22:32 they’re saying and is not
0:22:34 treating Trump special.
0:22:36 Like, he’s not playing the
0:22:36 game with him.
0:22:37 He’s just saying what’s
0:22:38 true.
0:22:40 Yeah, it’s he’s this guy
0:22:41 will be one of the most
0:22:43 deserving Medal of
0:22:44 Freedom recipients in
0:22:44 history.
0:22:45 And that’ll absolutely
0:22:46 happen as soon as there’s
0:22:47 a Democratic administration
0:22:48 in place.
0:22:49 He really did.
0:22:51 He pulled us back from
0:22:51 COVID.
0:22:53 He basically stuck up the
0:22:54 middle finger and said,
0:22:56 hold my beer to senators on
0:22:57 the far left who were,
0:22:59 you know, crying for people
0:23:00 whose credit card, but that
0:23:01 he needed to lower interest
0:23:02 rates and also on the far
0:23:03 right.
0:23:04 He just didn’t care.
0:23:05 He was very steadfast.
0:23:07 The largest acceleration in
0:23:08 interest rates over a 15
0:23:10 month period in history.
0:23:11 And it was a medicine we
0:23:12 needed to take.
0:23:13 A zero interest rate
0:23:14 environment created some
0:23:16 real externalities and he
0:23:17 immediately course
0:23:17 corrected.
0:23:20 And our inflation under the
0:23:22 Biden administration was
0:23:24 the lowest of the G7 while
0:23:24 our growth was the
0:23:25 strongest.
0:23:27 The affordability thing is
0:23:27 really interesting.
0:23:29 And even if you look at
0:23:31 Momdani’s win in New York
0:23:33 of the Democratic primary,
0:23:34 it was arguably very
0:23:35 similar to Trump.
0:23:37 It was a focus on
0:23:38 affordability and
0:23:39 weaponizing new mediums.
0:23:41 coming at it from a much
0:23:43 different lens, but
0:23:44 basically Trump ran on
0:23:45 affordability and so did
0:23:46 Momdani.
0:23:46 But if you were really
0:23:48 serious about affordability,
0:23:50 you would have a sane
0:23:51 immigration policy that
0:23:52 said, OK, if you’re going
0:23:53 to church and picking
0:23:54 crops and part of our
0:23:55 health care system and
0:23:57 lowering the bills at
0:23:59 grocery stores and in our
0:24:00 health services community,
0:24:01 all right, we’ll figure out
0:24:02 a path to citizenship.
0:24:04 We want to bring in the
0:24:05 most talented immigrants to
0:24:06 start new companies.
0:24:08 We want to ensure there’s
0:24:09 a ton of competition
0:24:10 amongst we’re going to
0:24:11 break up monopolies.
0:24:13 We would never have
0:24:13 tariffs.
0:24:14 We would get together with
0:24:15 some of our partners and
0:24:16 figure out a way to lower
0:24:17 tariffs.
0:24:19 I mean, literally everything.
0:24:21 We would figure out a tax
0:24:22 policy that doesn’t borrow
0:24:24 massive amounts of money
0:24:25 such that interest rates
0:24:27 go down because of the
0:24:28 money or the premium that
0:24:29 we have to offer people on
0:24:30 T-bills doesn’t continue
0:24:31 to increase as our own
0:24:32 balance sheet looks
0:24:33 increasingly risky.
0:24:35 It’s what you said is
0:24:36 exactly right.
0:24:37 I mean, this isn’t the
0:24:38 big, beautiful bill is the
0:24:39 big inflation bill.
0:24:41 I mean, you could assign a
0:24:42 lot of words to this
0:24:44 inflation, depraved, you
0:24:45 know, the anti-Robinhood
0:24:46 bill, whatever you would
0:24:47 want to call it.
0:24:48 But it does appear that he
0:24:52 is dead set on illuminating
0:24:54 or incenting or detonating
0:24:54 inflation again.
0:24:55 All right.
0:24:57 With that, let’s take a
0:24:57 quick break.
0:24:58 Stay with us.
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0:28:22 Welcome back.
0:28:24 Republicans finally muscled
0:28:25 their big, beautiful bill
0:28:26 through Congress, a sweeping
0:28:28 legislative victory for Trump
0:28:30 that slashes $1.7 trillion in
0:28:32 federal spending, extends his
0:28:34 signature tax cuts, and
0:28:35 enacts major changes to safety
0:28:36 net programs, including
0:28:36 Medicaid.
0:28:38 But now comes the harder
0:28:39 part, selling it.
0:28:40 Polls show most Americans
0:28:42 either dislike the bill or
0:28:43 don’t know what’s in it.
0:28:45 And with midterms looming,
0:28:47 GOP lawmakers are sprinting to
0:28:49 define the law before Democrats
0:28:50 do it for them.
0:28:52 Jess, Republicans are touting
0:28:54 the bill’s populist pieces like
0:28:55 eliminating taxes on tips.
0:28:57 But how are they planning to
0:28:59 explain the projected 12
0:29:01 million Americans who are
0:29:02 likely going to lose their
0:29:03 Medicaid coverage?
0:29:04 Well, they’re going to have an
0:29:05 election before you lose your
0:29:06 Medicaid coverage.
0:29:08 So that’s how they’re going to
0:29:08 do it.
0:29:09 You know, they were very
0:29:11 specific about the timing of
0:29:11 everything.
0:29:14 Like, no tax on tips actually
0:29:15 expires in 2028.
0:29:17 Tax cuts for the wealthiest,
0:29:18 that lives forever.
0:29:19 But if you’re going to get no
0:29:20 tax on tips, which, by the way,
0:29:22 only goes up to the first
0:29:23 twenty five thousand dollars
0:29:24 that you make in tips.
0:29:26 So that’s a very low cap.
0:29:29 Anyway, that’ll be around for
0:29:29 the midterms.
0:29:31 But you won’t know if your
0:29:32 Medicaid is going away until
0:29:33 after you cast your vote.
0:29:35 I still expect that the
0:29:37 Democrats will do well in
0:29:38 the midterms because
0:29:39 historically that’s what
0:29:39 happens.
0:29:40 But they were very, very
0:29:43 crafty in the timing about
0:29:44 all of this.
0:29:46 They also told this
0:29:48 monster lie about
0:29:50 what would happen if we
0:29:52 didn’t pass the one big
0:29:52 beautiful bill.
0:29:54 They would say your tax
0:29:55 cuts would expire from the
0:29:56 twenty seventeen
0:29:57 Trump plan.
0:29:59 But that’s not true.
0:30:00 It’s not like you would wake
0:30:01 up the next day and
0:30:02 suddenly you wouldn’t have a
0:30:02 tax cut anymore.
0:30:04 Congress would actually have
0:30:06 six months to deal with
0:30:07 this and they could work out
0:30:07 something in a bipartisan
0:30:08 fashion.
0:30:09 And they’ve done this before.
0:30:12 So that was the pressure
0:30:14 that people felt and they
0:30:15 thought the average
0:30:17 American that you were
0:30:18 going again to wake up on
0:30:20 July 5th or whatever day
0:30:22 we were going to say it is
0:30:23 and that suddenly you were
0:30:24 going to have an enormous
0:30:26 income tax bill or a huge
0:30:28 bill for your small
0:30:28 business.
0:30:31 So that was one pervasive
0:30:31 lie.
0:30:32 And then you have the stuff
0:30:33 about the work requirements
0:30:34 for Medicaid.
0:30:36 Scott Besson, again, very
0:30:37 smug talking about able
0:30:38 bodied Americans that just
0:30:39 don’t want to work.
0:30:40 They always go back to
0:30:41 quote unquote welfare queens
0:30:42 about all of this.
0:30:44 We know that only 8% of
0:30:45 people who receive Medicaid
0:30:46 would even fall into that
0:30:47 category.
0:30:48 You’re not going to pay for
0:30:49 the trillions that you’re
0:30:50 putting into the deficit
0:30:52 with those 8%.
0:30:54 And they just don’t want to
0:30:56 tell you the truth about
0:30:58 what’s going on in these
0:30:58 kinds of bills.
0:30:59 They don’t want to tell you
0:31:00 about who’s getting the
0:31:01 kickbacks.
0:31:04 Steve Ratner created a
0:31:05 beautiful chart of all of
0:31:08 the evaluations and all the
0:31:09 nonpartisan ones, all the
0:31:11 partisan ones, and even
0:31:12 right wing partisan
0:31:14 organizations have talked
0:31:15 about this ballooning the
0:31:17 deficit and that people will
0:31:18 lose their health care,
0:31:19 tax foundation, Cato.
0:31:21 And the only group of
0:31:23 economic advisors or
0:31:25 economic panel that says
0:31:27 that it’s going to be a
0:31:28 boon for the American
0:31:30 economy overall comes
0:31:31 right out of the White
0:31:31 House.
0:31:32 And they obviously have a
0:31:33 vested interest in saying
0:31:33 that.
0:31:36 but it just feels very
0:31:37 much like beating a dead
0:31:37 horse.
0:31:38 The American public hates
0:31:39 this bill.
0:31:40 Net favorables range from
0:31:42 negative 19 to negative 29.
0:31:44 49% say the bill is going to
0:31:45 hurt their family.
0:31:47 23% only say that it’s going
0:31:47 to help.
0:31:48 So you start out with a
0:31:49 baseline that the American
0:31:51 public knows that this is a
0:31:51 bad thing.
0:31:52 But then you get into the
0:31:54 issue of like, well, what are
0:31:55 you going to do about it?
0:31:56 How are you going to talk
0:31:57 about a thing that may not
0:31:59 affect people tomorrow?
0:32:01 like I and I know that
0:32:03 people have made this case,
0:32:04 but I don’t think it’s been
0:32:05 made strongly enough.
0:32:06 And I want to hear it all
0:32:07 the time that a tax and
0:32:09 spend bill more so than
0:32:10 probably anything else that
0:32:12 the government does is a
0:32:13 moral document.
0:32:15 It is a statement of your
0:32:17 values and your priorities.
0:32:19 And the GOP is very
0:32:20 clearly saying our
0:32:22 priorities are the rich.
0:32:23 Our priorities are
0:32:26 deporting millions of
0:32:27 people who are here.
0:32:28 I mean, the ICE funding and
0:32:29 I want to get your take on
0:32:31 that more than the
0:32:33 IDF now, that’s how
0:32:34 much we’re funding these
0:32:37 guys wearing masks that
0:32:38 are driving around in
0:32:39 unmarked vans, picking
0:32:39 people up.
0:32:41 And this not anti-law
0:32:42 enforcement.
0:32:43 I’m thrilled that we have
0:32:45 zero border crossings now.
0:32:46 I think that that’s a very
0:32:47 good thing and something
0:32:48 that the country needed
0:32:50 and desperately wanted,
0:32:51 which is why a lot of
0:32:52 people held their nose and
0:32:53 voted for Donald Trump
0:32:53 because they didn’t think
0:32:54 the Democrats were serious
0:32:55 about immigration.
0:32:58 But when you look at
0:32:59 these priorities and
0:33:00 and I’m sure, you know,
0:33:01 there are bits in there
0:33:02 cutting red tape for small
0:33:03 businesses.
0:33:04 Some seniors will get a
0:33:05 6K deduction.
0:33:06 Those are good things.
0:33:07 You know, I’m not saying
0:33:08 that there’s nothing in the
0:33:11 bill that’s decent, but
0:33:14 overall, it’s a signal that
0:33:15 this is a morally bankrupt
0:33:16 party.
0:33:18 And they all said as much on
0:33:19 the record and then just
0:33:20 went ahead and voted for it
0:33:21 anyway.
0:33:23 Yeah, a lot there.
0:33:24 So let’s go from the small
0:33:26 to the profound.
0:33:27 First off, this populist
0:33:28 bullshit around no taxes on
0:33:29 tips.
0:33:29 What percentage of the
0:33:31 working population would you
0:33:32 guess get tips?
0:33:33 I’m going to make a bad
0:33:34 guess.
0:33:35 It’s 2%.
0:33:36 What?
0:33:36 Yeah.
0:33:38 2% of Americans make money
0:33:39 on tips.
0:33:39 Oh.
0:33:41 And it’s just never made
0:33:42 any sense to me.
0:33:42 I was a waiter.
0:33:44 I was growing up.
0:33:45 I was both a dishwasher and a
0:33:45 waiter.
0:33:47 So when I was a dishwasher, I
0:33:49 wouldn’t get a tax cut.
0:33:50 But when I was a waiter, I got
0:33:50 a tax cut.
0:33:52 And then first off, anyone
0:33:53 who’s getting tips, especially
0:33:56 with a $25,000 limit on it, it
0:33:57 means they’re not paying a lot
0:33:58 of federal income tax to begin
0:33:58 with.
0:33:59 This is populist bullshit that
0:34:01 has no impact on people or the
0:34:02 economy.
0:34:05 And what I find more upsetting,
0:34:07 I’m all down for blaming the
0:34:08 Republicans on this.
0:34:09 I think this is both cruel and
0:34:11 stupid, which adds up to
0:34:12 depraved.
0:34:14 And I think you can lay the
0:34:15 majority of the blame at the
0:34:16 feet of the administration and
0:34:18 the Republicans who are scared
0:34:19 of being primaried and pretend
0:34:21 to give a good goddamn and say,
0:34:22 I would never cut Medicaid and
0:34:24 then grab their ankles when push
0:34:27 comes to shove or decide to sell
0:34:28 out the lower 48 to protect
0:34:30 their folks, Senator Murkowski.
0:34:33 You know, this is absolutely the
0:34:34 majority of the blame lies with
0:34:35 them.
0:34:36 But what’s more frightening, Jess,
0:34:38 is to your point, this isn’t
0:34:39 fiscal policy.
0:34:40 It’s a reflection on our
0:34:40 values.
0:34:42 And I think in America, there’s a
0:34:45 dangerous trend that my dad used
0:34:46 to say America is a terrible place
0:34:47 to be stupid.
0:34:50 And that was sort of an unkind way
0:34:52 of saying it’s a terrible place to
0:34:53 be vulnerable.
0:34:57 And essentially, I think America, not
0:34:58 just Republicans, but America has
0:35:01 decided that we believe in a
0:35:03 Hunger Games-like economy, that the
0:35:04 bottom 90 percent are effectively
0:35:07 nutrition for the top 10 percent
0:35:09 because people are willing to put up
0:35:11 with that depravity because they’re
0:35:13 hoping at some point they’ll be in that
0:35:13 top 10 percent.
0:35:16 And they’re also conflating, you know,
0:35:18 some of these really ugly ice raids and
0:35:21 knees on heads and 14-year-olds crying as
0:35:24 their mother is carted away and hearing
0:35:27 about a kid who is a paraplegic not being
0:35:28 able to afford his medication or his
0:35:29 physical therapy.
0:35:32 They sort of begrudgingly say, well,
0:35:34 thoughts and prayers, but they see that as
0:35:35 leadership.
0:35:36 They see that as, in a weird way,
0:35:38 masculinity and toughness.
0:35:40 I think this goes beyond something much
0:35:43 deeper and more upsetting about America.
0:35:46 And to your point, let’s be hopeful.
0:35:49 It’s that Americans haven’t been or
0:35:51 Democrats haven’t done a good job
0:35:52 connecting this to people because the
0:35:54 majority of people who will probably be
0:35:57 thrown off Medicaid, maybe a lot of us
0:35:59 don’t come in contact with or we don’t
0:36:00 know that our neighbor is on Medicaid.
0:36:04 So I never like to miss an opportunity
0:36:05 to talk about myself.
0:36:09 I’ll go through just how these cuts would
0:36:11 literally pull up the ladder behind me.
0:36:14 I’m sitting here in this, like, out of
0:36:17 control, over-the-top explosion and
0:36:19 wealth in Ibiza.
0:36:21 And, you know, the bad thing about getting
0:36:23 older, and you’ll realize this, I think
0:36:26 you’re further along in sort of self-awareness
0:36:27 than I was at your age.
0:36:29 But up until the point when I was your
0:36:31 age, I credited my grit and my character
0:36:33 for all my success.
0:36:35 It was about me being a baller and me
0:36:37 being talented and me taking risks and
0:36:40 overcoming some hardship.
0:36:42 And then as you get older, you realize a
0:36:44 lot of your success is not your fault.
0:36:47 And what I’ve come to recognize, and I can
0:36:49 attach many of these things to what’s under
0:36:52 attack right now, starting when I was nine
0:36:54 years old, I got assisted lunch.
0:36:57 My mom made $800 a month as a secretary.
0:37:00 And so we qualified for assisted lunch.
0:37:02 And one of the things I remember about that,
0:37:04 and I didn’t find out, I was nine, so I didn’t
0:37:05 know what was going on.
0:37:06 One of the things I found out a few years
0:37:09 later, and it just shows so much dignity and so
0:37:10 much grace on the part of California taxpayers
0:37:14 and our government, was they purposely sent the
0:37:15 coupons to my house.
0:37:18 And every kid had the same coupon, so no one
0:37:21 would know that I was on assisted lunch because
0:37:22 they wanted to avoid the stigma.
0:37:25 And I thought that was the most graceful thing,
0:37:27 one of the most American things.
0:37:30 When I was in high school, when I was 17, and I’ve
0:37:32 talked openly about this, my mom who passed 20
0:37:34 years ago, I don’t think would have a problem
0:37:35 with this.
0:37:39 My mom became pregnant at 47 and was able to
0:37:41 access safe, affordable family planning.
0:37:46 Had we lived in this era in a red state, you
0:37:47 know, we weren’t very sophisticated.
0:37:48 We didn’t have a lot of money.
0:37:51 If my mom had been forced to carry a child and
0:37:54 unwanted pregnancy to term, I was installing
0:37:55 shelving, making decent money at the time.
0:37:57 I would have not gone to UCLA.
0:38:00 I would not have had the opportunity to start
0:38:02 this upward spiral, courtesy of the Regency
0:38:05 University of California, that quite frankly,
0:38:07 and I’m bragging now, has produced tens of
0:38:10 millions of dollars in tax revenue and thousands
0:38:10 of jobs.
0:38:12 I just would have, I would have never had the
0:38:16 opportunity to go to college had it been my mom
0:38:19 and a newborn, and then when I got to UCLA, I got
0:38:20 Pell Grants.
0:38:22 That’s the only way I could afford to be at UCLA.
0:38:26 And a third of Pell Grant recipients, under this
0:38:28 big, beautiful bill, are either going to have their
0:38:30 grants reduced or eliminated.
0:38:33 When I got out of college, I was able to raise a shit
0:38:34 ton of money.
0:38:34 Why?
0:38:38 Because foreign investors loved investing in U.S.
0:38:41 startups because they saw rule of law, because they
0:38:46 saw all types of technology that had been funded by the U.S.
0:38:48 government, which didn’t have to pay a trillion dollars in
0:38:50 interest payments so they could invest in these crazy
0:38:51 things called GPS and the Internet.
0:38:54 All of my companies were built on the backbone of
0:38:58 technologies financed with these extraordinary, irrational
0:38:59 investments from the U.S.
0:39:01 government because they had the capital to make these
0:39:02 forward-leaning investments.
0:39:04 Literally, my company has been built on the back of
0:39:07 immigrants and an America that said, if you are really
0:39:10 fucking talented and want to work hard, come here and we
0:39:11 will put you to work.
0:39:16 All of these things that have built this life and this
0:39:20 prosperity and these millions in tax revenue, every one of
0:39:22 them is under attack.
0:39:26 And it is so disappointing that more people with my blessings of
0:39:32 my generation can’t do the math and reverse engineer this to
0:39:35 one thing, and that is we are torching, we are burning the ships
0:39:37 behind us, we are pulling up the ladders.
0:39:41 It’s so disappointing, beyond the moral argument.
0:39:43 It’s like, you don’t want your kids to have the same
0:39:44 opportunities we had.
0:39:48 And I’ll even go more meta than this and be more dramatic and
0:39:49 more hysterical.
0:39:49 Oh, good.
0:39:57 My mom was a four-year-old Jew sleeping in the tube stations at
0:39:59 night because her house had been bombed during the blitzkrieg.
0:40:03 And America was so alarmed, they decided to convert
0:40:08 factories from producing Buicks to producing tanks.
0:40:12 And they decided that 400,000 households should have a gold
0:40:14 star in the window and lose their sons because it was worth it to
0:40:15 push back on fascism.
0:40:17 They were not pushing back on anti-Semitism.
0:40:20 They were pushing back on fascism.
0:40:21 And what’s fascism?
0:40:25 Demonization of immigrants, a refusal to condemn violence against
0:40:28 your political enemies, and extreme nationalism.
0:40:28 Sound familiar?
0:40:33 And had America not had a gag reflex on emerging fascism in
0:40:36 Europe, my mom’s life would have ended with a train ride.
0:40:37 I wouldn’t even be here.
0:40:44 So all of these things, a gag reflex on fascism, providing
0:40:48 opportunities for young people, safe, affordable family planning
0:40:52 and rights for women, deep pools of capital such that people
0:40:55 could start business, a culture that invites the best and brightest
0:40:59 to help people build businesses and leverage that capital.
0:41:00 All that shit is under attack.
0:41:02 It’s literally under attack.
0:41:05 I find it so deeply rattling and disturbing.
0:41:10 And I’m pissed off that Democrats just scream and get angry and talk
0:41:11 about Medicare.
0:41:11 I get it.
0:41:14 Medicare, that’s that’s one part of the story.
0:41:19 But show me anybody in my generation who has made their wealth, not
0:41:20 inherited, but made their wealth.
0:41:25 In about two fucking minutes, I can show you why this bill is attacking
0:41:31 the reason that you are in Ibiza or in the Hamptons or in Aspen and that
0:41:35 you have decided, no, no one else gets to come here except my kids.
0:41:37 Speech over.
0:41:42 I’m overwhelmed by it and moved.
0:41:44 It’s a great American story.
0:41:51 And it’s not often that people are telling it in such honest terms.
0:41:57 The details are what matter and what create connective tissue amongst Americans.
0:42:00 And right now when we talk about this a lot, that Americans feel completely
0:42:01 disconnected from one another.
0:42:02 You live in your bubbles.
0:42:06 And I wish more people would speak up like that and would be telling those
0:42:07 kinds of stories.
0:42:11 And I know that it is difficult if you also have a business to protect.
0:42:14 And there are a lot of people, even immigrants, that there are heads at these
0:42:18 big companies that feel like they can’t do it, that they have to show up at
0:42:21 inauguration and they have to kiss the ring because they have to make sure that
0:42:23 they continue to make their bottom line.
0:42:28 But it does feel like the very fabric of America is being torn apart.
0:42:31 And I think that’s important to emphasize.
0:42:35 But I also, you know, put on a strategist cap.
0:42:40 And I think about, you know, how much we talked about January 6th or the death of
0:42:46 democracy and, you know, fascism is coming and people didn’t want to vote for that.
0:42:49 They wanted to vote for better grocery prices.
0:42:49 Right.
0:42:51 Or they wanted to vote for a closed border.
0:42:56 And so you have to be really strategic and smart about how you do this.
0:43:00 The reality is that nearly half of Americans haven’t heard anything about the Big
0:43:01 Beautiful Bill.
0:43:03 So those who have heard about it have a very negative view of it.
0:43:10 Only 8% have said that the Medicaid cuts are a detail of a bill that they know about.
0:43:14 That’s going to come for a lot of these people after the midterms, like I said.
0:43:19 So it’s emotional to think about this and to think about the impact on the young people,
0:43:21 like you said, of pulling up the ladder.
0:43:24 You know, what’s going to happen with your student loans, for instance.
0:43:28 I mean, people just are not going to be able to go to graduate school or college for that
0:43:29 matter.
0:43:31 It’s just not going to be happening anymore.
0:43:32 We’re going to become less educated.
0:43:37 We’re also going to be able to import less educated people because why would you want to
0:43:38 come here?
0:43:43 I don’t know what America looks like when this is over, but I do know that millions of Americans
0:43:45 were not happy with the way that it’s going.
0:43:49 And Democrats have got to thread that needle better.
0:43:53 And I don’t want to I don’t want to turn every session into like a shitting on Democrat
0:43:54 session.
0:43:59 Like there’s not a lot that you can do when you don’t have the numbers, but people don’t
0:44:04 feel inspired and they don’t feel like they have a good alternative to this.
0:44:10 A friend of mine who’s a great Democratic strategist was talking about it and he said, essentially,
0:44:16 we’re on trend for 2017 when they tried to do the ACA repeal and we had a very good midterms
0:44:17 there in 2018.
0:44:23 But it’s going to take a lot of work over the next 18 months to impress upon people just
0:44:27 exactly what has happened to the country.
0:44:33 And we know that it’s not that effective to be telling people like, well, this is what your
0:44:34 lived reality is.
0:44:34 Right.
0:44:35 This is what your experience is.
0:44:37 People know what their experiences are.
0:44:42 And if we don’t seem like a decent alternative, then maybe they sit at home.
0:44:43 Maybe they don’t care.
0:44:49 But more so, maybe they just become completely or even further disenchanted with the American
0:44:49 project.
0:44:56 What Democrats do you think are doing a decent job of attaching this bill to real life who
0:45:02 you think that is actually showing some of that fire and ability to connect this to everyday
0:45:04 Americans who other Democrats can model?
0:45:11 I mean, all of the swing Democrats, I think, do a great job of this because sometimes they’re
0:45:14 not as good on social or whatever.
0:45:16 We don’t pay a lot of attention to it.
0:45:21 But like the Jared Goldens of the world, Pat Ryan, you know, when you win races like that,
0:45:26 you know something about how to talk to people and how to make those connections.
0:45:32 If you look at Mallory McMorrow, who we’re going to have on the podcast running for Senate
0:45:40 in Michigan, outraised her primary opponent who has a lot more institutional support because
0:45:43 she’s talking about this like a normal person.
0:45:48 And she’s also saying to the Mom Donnie question, like business as usual, it’s not working for
0:45:48 us.
0:45:53 I mean, people, they want change if they’re not going to get them.
0:45:55 We’re going to talk about the third party thing with Elon.
0:46:01 If these are going to be your options, you have to find a way to turn into an outsider
0:46:03 party while still being on the inside.
0:46:09 And one of my colleagues at Fox, I think it was Kellyanne, said that Donald Trump reformed
0:46:11 the Republican Party from within.
0:46:15 He essentially created a third party from within the Republican infrastructure.
0:46:19 And Democrats need some of that.
0:46:26 They need an internal revolution at this point to inspire people and to make you think that
0:46:29 the status quo is not good enough for any of us.
0:46:33 And I wanted to ask you this because it’s been weighing on me.
0:46:37 Like, I love my job, but I don’t love my job.
0:46:43 And I can’t imagine loving a job enough that I would vote for something that I admitted would
0:46:47 strip health care from hundreds of thousands of people that I represent.
0:46:55 What is the point of staying in office if you can’t help the people that you allegedly signed
0:46:57 up to improve the lives of?
0:47:00 It’s such a profound question.
0:47:06 And I ask myself the same question all the time, that at what point if I mean, literally
0:47:12 if if the president said we have to stop all funding for premature birth wards, would they
0:47:14 do it at this point?
0:47:17 Like, where would they draw the line?
0:47:19 Where would they say we won’t do it?
0:47:23 Because the only people who didn’t vote for this thing were people who basically said I’m
0:47:25 not running again, especially in the Senate.
0:47:28 So I don’t I struggle with this, too.
0:47:33 And I don’t have a good answer other than they’re too fucking old and they literally think if I
0:47:36 leave here, I’m just going to go home and start to die.
0:47:38 And I lose all relevance and all importance.
0:47:44 Do you have any additional thoughts on why these folks just refuse to be the kind of the
0:47:46 leaders we ask them to be?
0:47:48 Power corrupts.
0:47:53 Yeah, these are very important jobs and we treat them like many kings.
0:47:59 And queens to some degree, right, especially with the way the media apparatus works now.
0:48:00 But I can’t.
0:48:06 I can’t come up with what the line would be, except for the very few that actually did find
0:48:11 their line, whether it was the deficit or Medicaid cuts for Tom Tillis.
0:48:13 But, you know, the ball is rolling.
0:48:17 There’s already a rural hospital in Nebraska that’s closed.
0:48:22 And they said that this is because of the bill, that they’re not going to be able to stay in
0:48:24 business moving forward as a result.
0:48:28 And you’re going to see a lot of that and people getting asked tough questions.
0:48:35 And I think the answer is going to be, you know, what caliber of candidate on the Democratic
0:48:40 side is going to show up to run races against these vulnerable Republicans?
0:48:43 Because the map, there are already a lot of them on it.
0:48:45 And they just put even bigger targets on their back.
0:48:51 You know, there are going to be some very interesting races, hard fought races and all of this.
0:49:01 And we got to find the way to be inspirational and different and revolutionary within the system
0:49:07 that we’re working in, because people look at Washington and they just say, I don’t see anything for me.
0:49:14 Yeah. And one of the bright spots about Momdami’s win is, and I want to be clear, I would not have
0:49:18 voted for the guy. A lot of his positions are very troubling to me and a lot of his current, his
0:49:24 public policy ideas make no fucking sense to me, like sponsored bread lines in the form of state
0:49:29 sponsored or state controlled grocery stores. But having said that, along the lines of what you’re
0:49:34 saying, we need a revolution within the Democratic Party to remake the party. And it’s got to start
0:49:38 with young people who understand these new technologies, these new mediums, are unafraid,
0:49:44 new ideas, and are willing to just sort of step up and say, all right, it is time to shed
0:49:50 a new layer of skin. Any ideas? Who do you think, if looking at the positive side of Donald Trump,
0:49:57 who was sort of the, you know, the William Wallace of that revolution, if you had to bet on one or two
0:50:02 or three people who you think could be that, that William Wallace of reshaping the Democratic
0:50:06 Party, do you see any likely candidates or is it still kind of TBD?
0:50:13 I mean, it’s a little TBD, but I think on the more centrist, you know, moderate Dem side of things,
0:50:20 I think Elisa Slotkin is offering people a lot. And she was the one who came out there and said,
0:50:25 you know, this is my plan, right? This is what I think the future of the Democratic Party looks like.
0:50:30 You know, she does the cursing in the right places. She has the resume to back all of it up.
0:50:36 I just think that there’s so much that we can learn from people that have won these difficult races and
0:50:43 that oftentimes we just go back to the folks who have the loudest voices or who give the best
0:50:47 interviews, etc. But they obviously don’t know the same things as the folks that went out there and
0:50:53 connected with people that have supported Republicans their whole life or who split ticket for Donald Trump
0:50:59 and for them. You know, it’s happening all over the country and there are people out there that are
0:51:04 worth your time, even if their politics aren’t exactly aligned with ours. Like we had Greg Kassar
0:51:10 from Texas on the podcast. He’s way to the left of where I am. But, you know, you have a lot of people
0:51:18 in the middle who are saying that they like AOC the best because AOC seems like she’s got the fight in
0:51:20 her and that she’s on the right side of history.
0:51:26 I’m afraid, you know, agreed. Yeah. The problem I have with the far left and I think they’re as guilty
0:51:32 or more guilty of this in the far right and I’ve been subject to it is if you’re a moderate and
0:51:38 occasionally see merit in Republican ideas, you’re treated like an apostate. Yeah. Like, you know,
0:51:42 the right calls me a libtar. They just write me off, but they’ll bring me on Fox and they’re actually
0:51:47 quite polite to me as I think they’re mostly polite to you and appreciate you. On the far left,
0:51:53 I can’t tell you how many mean, angry emails I got from people I know and like and consider me a friend
0:51:58 and I consider them a friend when I started saying Biden’s too fucking old. Yeah. It’s like you either
0:52:05 sign up for the cult and the narrative or you are the enemy. And the far left is as guilty of it as
0:52:12 anybody. And the Democratic Party needs to do a better job of embracing imperfect allies. And when I’m at
0:52:17 conferences and I see people, Democrats playing identity politics and talking about the
0:52:24 patriarchy and if you don’t sign up for every right word for the orthodoxy, you’re the problem.
0:52:29 And it’s like, just as the settlers figured out a way to get Native Americans fighting amongst each
0:52:37 other, kill each other first, and then we’ll come in for cleanup. The Democrats are just the level of
0:52:44 interesting warfare is so unproductive. It’s like, I absolutely think AOC’s policies,
0:52:50 many of them don’t make any fucking sense. I will give money to her. I think she’s wonderful.
0:52:57 I retweet her shit. I think she’s fantastic. But what I find on the left is if you don’t sign up for
0:53:03 the right narrative, basically people attack you and say, OK, maybe we’re allies, but you’re holding
0:53:10 the gun wrong. This is this is the narrative. This demand for ideological consistency is so
0:53:17 ridiculous. No actual human being is totally in lockstep with a party platform. And that’s what
0:53:20 Trump did for the right. It works and it connects.
0:53:26 Yeah. I mean, we’re going to need a bigger boat. But I also think the identity politics of the left
0:53:32 has gotten out of control. It doesn’t do us any good to begin assigning values and identifying or
0:53:38 immediately prescribing validity or a lack thereof based on who’s saying it as opposed to what they’re
0:53:44 saying. And I feel like the Democrats don’t even recognize how biased they are against statements
0:53:51 solely based on who’s saying it. And I feel that the Democrats are actually probably more guilty of
0:53:56 this than Republicans that, OK, if you’re an old white dude, I have to take everything you say with
0:54:01 a grain of salt and I am ready to weigh in and get my guardians of gotcha pen. I am going so far off
0:54:07 script here. Jess, let’s bring it home. Our producer is trying to rein me in. Let’s take a quick break.
0:54:13 Stay with us. We’re going to talk about this guy who’s in technology, who’s actually from South
0:54:16 Africa. His name is Elon Musk. Oh, haven’t heard of him. Yeah.
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0:54:55 Welcome back. Before we go, Elon Musk says he’s launching a third political party.
0:55:03 Oh, God, Jess. Save me. Literally save me. Called the America Party. OK. Yeah.
0:55:10 A South African immigrant who went to school in Canada, who disowns his daughter on Joe Rogan’s
0:55:15 podcast and is being sued concurrently by two women for sole custody of their child because he spends no
0:55:20 time with them. Yeah, that’s the guy to start a third party. He says it’s meant to challenge what he
0:55:26 calls a one-party system that’s driving the country into debt. And he timed the announcement just days
0:55:31 after Trump signed his massive domestic policy bill into law. Bill Musk once backed, then blasted,
0:55:34 and now calls the final straw. He’s had it, Jess. He’s had it. Anyways,
0:55:39 Musk insists the new party will focus on a handful of swing districts in the midterms,
0:55:42 but Trump allies weren’t it could fracture the right at a time when margins are razor thin.
0:55:49 That’s fair. And then there’s the Epstein factor. After months of teasing bombshell revelations,
0:55:53 the Justice Department just announced there isn’t a client list, isn’t a cover-up,
0:55:59 and no more new documents are coming. Well, that’s a 180. That hasn’t stopped Musk from fanning the
0:56:05 flames or from accusing Trump of being part of some kind of cover-up. Jess, what’s going on here?
0:56:09 What’s he trying to accomplish? A third party isn’t exactly, I don’t know, we’ve been to this movie
0:56:13 before. How much trouble do you think he can actually cause for Trump and the GOP?
0:56:22 Not very much. Like, on the fringes, it’s possible to have an effect with a third-party candidate. Like,
0:56:28 actually, in an Ohio district, Marcy Kaptor, who’s the Democrat there, I think this is her 22nd term,
0:56:34 been there a long time, the Democrats funneled money into a libertarian candidate’s campaign,
0:56:39 I think about $400K, to shave off support from the Republican candidate that was challenging her,
0:56:44 and she ended up winning her race. So those are ways that you can use third parties to play around
0:56:49 and make a difference. But in terms of what’s going to happen at the presidential level, it makes no
0:56:57 difference. And if you want to have a government that’s more representative to the public, then you
0:57:02 need to have proportional representation. And we can’t have winner-take-all anymore. And there are a lot
0:57:08 of people that would get on board with that, but would obviously never be able to pass and get through.
0:57:15 So, you know, Musk is throwing his toys out of the proverbial stroller. He’s pissed off. This happened
0:57:20 before, and he essentially came back groveling to Trump. And I imagine that that’s what’s going to happen
0:57:26 because, you know, money matters, of course, and being the richest man on the planet is a very big deal. But
0:57:33 Donald Trump has shown himself to be more powerful than Musk. And I think even the way that he’s treating
0:57:39 him on social media about this, you know, talking down to him, it’s very paternalistic, actually,
0:57:45 how he’s dealing with him. Like, baby Elon is mad. Give him his space. And, you know, they toss around
0:57:49 stuff like, I’m going to look into your immigration status or whatever. But in general, I feel like
0:57:56 he’s going to get over it. And he has to get back to Tesla and, you know, try managing that. And I think,
0:58:01 you know, he’s mad about the debt, but he’s mostly mad about the EV credits. Right. That’s what this is.
0:58:07 Everyone is always just actually concerned with themselves and their personal bottom line. So I
0:58:09 think it’s going to end up being a big nothing burger.
0:58:15 Yeah. I mean, there’s a few things here. There’s the motivation for doing it and the effectiveness.
0:58:21 The motivation is all of a sudden he’s decided the president is a pedophile and that this bill is
0:58:27 fiscally irresponsible. There is no new information from when he loved the president.
0:58:27 Correct.
0:58:33 There are no new revelations about Trump and Epstein. The end of the EV subsidies, the massive increase in
0:58:38 the deficit were all present when he was showing up to the White House in a Hot Topic uniform high on
0:58:45 ketamine. This is about Elon Musk being angry he’s no longer the first friend. So that is not the basis
0:58:52 or the substance or the heft to start a third political party. And then the question is, will
0:58:57 a third political party, does it have any viability? And it doesn’t in America. We have a two party system
0:59:02 because of gerrymandering, because of a winner take all environment. When we have proportional
0:59:07 representation in places like Sweden and Germany, a third, a fourth and a fifth party can have a lot of
0:59:11 influence because they get proportionate representative based on if they get 18 percent of the vote, they
0:59:18 get 18 percent of the representatives. What a third party ends up being is spoilers, right? So Ross
0:59:23 Perot got 18 percent. Ross Perot is the reason Bill Clinton won presidency. George Herbert Walker Bush was
0:59:28 the first incumbent to lose an election when there wasn’t a recession because Perot took 18 percent,
0:59:36 about 11 percent was drawn from Bush’s voter base, seven from Clinton. So a swing of 4 percent, which swung
0:59:42 it from being a landslide for Bush to a decided victory for Clinton. The same thing happened to Gore
0:59:49 because of Nader. Jill Stein played a role. So these third parties are not viable. The last time a third
0:59:57 party won a state was Wallace, I think, in 68. But they can be spoilers. I think this is over before it starts.
1:00:04 I think it’s going to get no traction. What he can have is enormous influence because there’s a decent
1:00:09 argument that he’s the guy that got Trump elected with a quarter of a billion dollars and a huge platform in
1:00:13 seven swing states and a small number of counties in those seven swing states. You can make an argument
1:00:20 that in, you know, two or three of those states, Musk may have swung the election for Trump. If he is able to focus
1:00:28 on four or six senatorial and 12 or 15 house races, he could have a huge impact because those people are
1:00:34 very loyal to whoever puts him in office. One thing that Peter Thiel will never hear from J.D. Vance is the
1:00:41 word no because Peter Thiel put J.D. Vance in office. So he could have enormous influence. But this third
1:00:47 party nonsense is over before it begins. And be clear, folks, Elon Musk isn’t worried about the
1:00:52 deficit. He isn’t worried about America’s future. He’s just, quite frankly, he’s really butthurt and
1:00:55 he’s angry and he’s looking for revenge. Your thoughts?
1:01:02 I agree. And you saw also how quickly Elon Musk faded from favor of the Republican Party. Once
1:01:07 he started opposing the bill, he was persona non grata. I understand that this coincided with him
1:01:13 also leaving the White House, but he’s not walking around with Trump and Dana White anymore. So no one
1:01:20 really cares that much. You’re right about the money, like the example I was giving in Ohio. But he is
1:01:25 on to something that’s really important. You know, we have the highest number of Americans that identify
1:01:29 as a political independent. That doesn’t mean that they don’t have right or left leanings, but it means
1:01:35 that they don’t want to be part of this two party system that pushes you into boxes where you don’t
1:01:41 feel like you belong. And there was a massive study of almost 20,000 people that looked at how
1:01:45 independents feel about the major parties. Sixty four percent have an unfavorable opinion of the
1:01:51 Democratic Party and 71 percent have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party. We need to do
1:01:57 better. We need parties that look more like America, that are more responsive to America and their
1:02:03 concerns. It’s a huge branding challenge, you know, something that you’re great at assessing. But when
1:02:11 Musk says we need another option, we need an alternative, almost everybody says that’s objectively true.
1:02:19 We just need to find a way to make that feasible or possible for folks or to at least give them some
1:02:24 inkling that we understand how badly they want things to change.
1:02:29 So just before we wrap up here, Jess, I need you to get under the president’s skin again.
1:02:34 We popped to the fourth biggest news podcast in the world last week solely because…
1:02:36 You didn’t text me about that? I didn’t know that.
1:02:42 Probably because the president is pissed off at you and name checked you. So I need you to continue to
1:02:47 get under his skin because daddy wants to come back to Ibiza. He wants to come back to Ibiza. The
1:02:48 people are so young.
1:02:49 It’ll be my great pleasure.
1:02:56 And so hot here. And it is so expensive. It all reverse engineers to the president getting angry
1:02:58 at you. Can you do that for me?
1:02:59 I will do my best.
1:03:04 I’ll say it again. I can’t say it enough. I am so proud of you. I think that is so impressive.
1:03:08 You literally want to tell your grandkids. You want to be like, yeah,
1:03:13 remember that fascist back at the beginning of the 21st century that we literally vomited out?
1:03:18 Yeah, he he went after me publicly. I think that is going to be I think you’re going to have that
1:03:20 on your tombstone as a point of pride.
1:03:22 A long truth social for a tombstone.
1:03:26 All right, Jess, that’s all for this episode. Thank you for listening to Raging Moderates.
1:03:31 Our producers are David Toledo and Eric Jenakes. Our technical director is Drew Burrows.
1:03:35 Going forward, you’ll find Raging Moderates every Wednesday and Friday. That’s right.
1:03:40 Every Wednesday and Friday. Subscribe to Raging Moderates on its own feed to hear exclusive
1:03:45 interviews with sharp political minds. This week, Jess is speaking with Congressman Seth Moulton.
1:03:48 Make sure to follow us wherever you get your podcasts so you don’t miss an episode.
1:03:52 Jess, have a great rest of the week. It’s so good to see you.
1:03:52 Great to see you.