AI transcript
0:00:07 it’s on the minds of everyone from you to your congressperson to your barista
0:00:15 when they flip that little pos tablet towards you asking for the tip i always feel like i’m in a
0:00:22 moral crisis of whether or not i tip and how much i should tip because how much are they being paid
0:00:28 tipping the question on everyone’s minds we’ll bring you the answers this week on explain it to
0:00:38 mean get new episodes every sunday wherever you get your podcasts today’s number 75 that’s the
0:00:44 percentage of men in japan who give all of their money to their wife the system is called kozukai
0:00:51 the wife manages the finances and the man receives a monthly allowance meanwhile japan enjoys some of
0:00:57 the highest household savings rates and lowest personal bankruptcy rates in the world put another
0:01:02 way japan has discovered the ultimate money hack give everything to your wife
0:01:09 money markets matter if money is evil then that building is hell
0:01:22 welcome to prof g markets i’m ed elson it is july 29th let’s check in on yesterday’s market vitals
0:01:28 the major indices were mixed as investors digested the trade deal with the eu we’ll talk more about
0:01:34 that in a second the s&p 500 and the nasdaq both hit new records the dow fell slightly the dollar
0:01:40 climbed the most since may as the euro fell sharply and finally oil prices rose after president trump
0:01:48 shortened the timeline for russia to end the war with ukraine okay what else is happening trump has
0:01:54 reportedly struck a deal with america’s largest trading partner the eu while the details aren’t
0:02:00 yet confirmed it is reported that the eu has agreed to pay a 15 tariff rate on most goods europe also
0:02:06 agreed to increase their investment level in the u.s by more than 600 billion dollars this framework
0:02:13 follows the july 11th letter from trump which threatened a 30 tariff rate on eu goods unless a deal
0:02:19 could be struck by august 1st on the news the markets were mostly unaffected the s&p finished
0:02:26 the day about 0.2 percent higher the nasdaq closed up more than 0.3 percent the euro stock 600 and index
0:02:33 of leading european blue chip companies that ended the day down a little over 0.2 percent so trump has
0:02:40 completed a deal with the eu this one according to the president is quote the biggest deal ever reached
0:02:47 in any capacity this comes less than a week after trump made a deal with japan which was in his words
0:02:53 quote the largest deal ever made so both of them record-breaking deals this deal is even bigger than
0:03:00 the last one truly historic i say that sarcastically but i should add that actually a lot of people do
0:03:06 believe it many people online and in the media are viewing this deal as a crucial victory as evidence
0:03:13 that the trump strategy is working that he’s getting deals done that he is winning and it’s not just
0:03:18 jesse waters or people on fox it’s more than that here’s a bloomberg opinion headline from yesterday
0:03:25 quote europeans not trump ended up chickening out here’s another one quote trump wins the hulkamania
0:03:31 tariff brawl he started here’s a tweet from a mainstream financial journalist quote trump is
0:03:39 winning on trade so many people are calling this deal a win for trump and you can kind of see why
0:03:45 he threatened these tariffs and in return he got this commitment from the eu to invest 600 billion
0:03:53 into the u.s sounds pretty good but it also sounds very similar to the deal we saw with japan last week
0:04:00 which was a reduction in tariffs and in return a commitment to invest 550 billion dollars into the
0:04:06 u.s and so considering this is essentially the same thing i will ask essentially the same questions i asked
0:04:13 last week which are what are they investing in what are the terms of the investment what is the timeline
0:04:20 and has anything been signed and as with last week the answers this week are the same for the first
0:04:27 three questions the answer is we don’t know and for the final question the answer is no nothing has
0:04:34 been signed this is once again a framework of a deal meaning that everything trump is saying literally all
0:04:41 is subject to change and as we discussed last week this is a recurring theme in trump land that by the way
0:04:48 has consistently never worked whether it was the 200 billion dollar commitment from china which never actually
0:04:55 materialized or the 600 billion dollar investment plan that was a trillion and then 300 billion and then 600 billion
0:05:03 from saudi arabia hasn’t materialized or the 500 billion from apple or the 500 billion from open ai and soft
0:05:10 bank over and over again we see an announcement of a deal a big headline and then six months later we look
0:05:17 back and we realize actually no nothing ever happened nothing was signed nothing changed and thus no deal got done
0:05:26 this is the reality of trump’s deal making and what is most ironic about this is the fact that in the same week
0:05:33 that we learn of this historic trade deal with the eu we also learn some new information about the historic trade deal with japan
0:05:39 the trade deal that was supposed to have japan invest more than 500 billion dollars into america
0:05:45 and that america was supposed to receive 90 of the profits on that was the deal which by the way we said would
0:05:52 never materialize well we now have some clarification on that deal from the japanese government this came out
0:06:01 over the weekend according to japan’s chief negotiator of that 550 billion dollars only one percent of it will
0:06:09 actually be invested in america the remaining 99 are going to take place in the form of a loan
0:06:16 which the japanese government is going to collect interest on so put another way no japan isn’t
0:06:22 investing 550 billion dollars they’re investing five billion dollars and by the way the timeline has also
0:06:28 been clarified to three and a half years which means that japan’s annual investment into the us is going
0:06:34 to come out to one and a half billion dollars that is 26 times less than the amount of money open ai just
0:06:42 raised in a private venture round so as predicted the japan deal was not a deal the only thing we got
0:06:48 wrong about that one was that the truth came out way quicker than we anticipated and here we are all over
0:06:56 again with europe a 600 billion dollar commitment with no deal terms no timeline and no signatures now
0:07:01 people might say what about the 750 billion they say they’re going to spend on energy to which i would
0:07:08 say once again not a deal nothing’s been signed and in addition europe was already going to buy that energy
0:07:15 because of this very widely understood concept called the ukraine war so as has been proven with japan this
0:07:22 is once again not a deal this is a press release this is europe saying something to make donald trump
0:07:29 appear victorious and therefore make him happy we know that’s basically all he cares about so let’s go back
0:07:36 to our deal tracker and just to remind you of what our definition of what a deal is our definition is a
0:07:43 contract or a treaty that is signed and ratified into law that’s what we think a deal is this doesn’t meet
0:07:52 that definition so today is july 29th we’re about 190 days and probably 50 tariff announcements into this
0:07:59 presidential administration and we are currently sitting on a grand total of zero ds that’s where
0:08:04 we’re at let’s give scott a call i’m sure he has many reactions of his own
0:08:14 scott how’s it going it’s going really well how about you i’m doing well i see you’re in new york i am in
0:08:19 new york that’s right you recognize my apartment don’t you i recognize your background i recognize your
0:08:25 grayson perry on the wall that’s right that’s right my only my only piece of art one piece of art it’s
0:08:33 a good one well we want to get your take on this eu trade deal uh a historic deal apparently the biggest
0:08:39 deal ever reached in any capacity those are the president’s words um your reaction scott well first
0:08:46 off i’m curious what your thoughts are based on what i’ve read this is a good deal for the us and a bad
0:08:52 deal for the eu and that is it looks like a lot of our it looks like it’s asymmetrically advantage to
0:08:58 us in terms of tariffs they’re mostly opening their markets keeping their markets the same we’re opening
0:09:04 them further and i was trying to figure out how we ended up in a place with a better deal than them
0:09:11 other than obviously the genius deal making of the president uh and i think it’s a couple
0:09:16 things one i think this is where it really hurts to have 27 member countries that europe is not really
0:09:24 a union and two i think the elephant in the room and mia pointed this out is the u.s military umbrella
0:09:31 that the real existential threat of getting into a trade war with the united states is it it diminishes
0:09:38 their ability to push back on the russian army and ukraine and that also i think that for the first time
0:09:45 america potentially leaving nato and and folding or collapsing the military umbrella that the eu has
0:09:52 enjoyed is is a real possibility so i think for just market stability to get their businesses back to
0:09:57 planning again to try and i would imagine part of this was a wink and a nod that america will continue
0:10:05 to support the ukrainian army and also be a productive member or the base anchor of nato that they needed to
0:10:10 get this deal done the net net as far as i can tell if this framework becomes an actual tariff deal is
0:10:15 it’ll raise prices on u.s households about twenty four hundred dollars it’s interesting i guess their
0:10:23 primary our primary import from uh europe is you know i assumed it was air mess scarves it’s not it’s
0:10:33 pharmaceuticals uh so our prices do go up uh but this is uh just calling balls and strikes the way i see it and
0:10:39 i i do want your opinion here i feel like this is a win for trump that he got the better end of this
0:10:43 deal as far as i read it what are your thoughts that well i think a lot of people are saying that
0:10:50 and i gotta be honest i can’t see any reason why i mean this is the same thing we’ve seen before we’re
0:10:56 putting up a tariff and as we all know that tariff is a tax on us yes it’s going to lower demand
0:11:02 um on on europe’s side of things but ultimately who are we taxing we’re taxing the people who
0:11:08 import those products to america we’re taxing american companies so that’s america losing on
0:11:14 that side there’s also the america losing in terms of prices going up and then again we got to get to
0:11:21 the quid pro quo here what did we get in return well europe’s supposedly investing 600 billion
0:11:27 dollars in america but if history is any guide we’ve seen it with japan and with china and saudi arabia
0:11:32 means absolutely nothing nothing’s actually been signed here and so i don’t fully understand why
0:11:39 people have decided to wake up this morning and say oh this one’s legit this one makes sense this one’s a
0:11:44 win it’s a victory even the markets i mean perhaps they’re gleaning that information from the market’s
0:11:51 reaction but the market’s reaction was very very small s&p closed maybe 0.2 percent higher that’s
0:11:58 basically flat these days european market down 0.2 percent i mean in my view that’s not much of a
0:12:06 reaction so the way i see it again nothing’s nothing’s changed and you know we’ve gone over that but i i
0:12:14 guess i would i would be interested in why you your thoughts on why people might be seeing this as
0:12:22 something more substantial than anything we’ve seen before perhaps because it’s with the european union
0:12:29 and the tensions have been higher i mean what what is it you think about this deal that people decided to
0:12:36 say okay this one this one’s a win japan was kind of a a tie but this one’s a win for
0:12:42 trump this does feel a little bit ed and that one of two things happened either the eu said
0:12:47 we’re just going to play slow ball agree to a framework we need to get back to business
0:12:53 the the chill here the indecision is bad for everybody and we’ll work out the details and
0:12:57 maybe throw up arms in frustration and never get to a deal waiting for a democratic congress
0:13:03 or we got to placate this guy because we need arms to continue to flow into ukraine otherwise is
0:13:10 poland next so it feels to me like the us based on the framework i’ve saw has got the better end of
0:13:16 this deal i would have thought the eu would have responded with equivalent reciprocal tariffs and it
0:13:22 doesn’t look like that it looks like our tariffs that we’re managed and getting them at least in terms
0:13:27 of a framework to agree to are greater than the tariffs that are going to be imposed on us well perhaps
0:13:31 europe has realized that tariffs are attacks on themselves i mean this is a this is another big
0:13:36 piece of it you sound like that literally the physical embodiment of the economist magazine the
0:13:41 economist is saying the economist magazine has been saying for 40 years the reason for abusing the
0:13:48 reason to try that the the the kind of center of gravity for the economist is that free trade and free
0:13:53 markets are the way to go and i think you make a really solid argument as a matter of fact when i first saw
0:13:58 this i thought oh we’re lowering tariffs on everyone this is actually a free trade agreement and i agree
0:14:05 with you but this is where we are we’re on the we’re on it felt like we’re on the precipice of a trade war
0:14:11 where we were going to implement 50 he was you know he was threatening 30 and 50 taxes i thought they
0:14:16 would have reciprocated with those taxes and then we see economic growth just come to a standstill and then
0:14:24 the largest democracies in the world figure out a way to create openings for autocracies so this is
0:14:29 this whole framework all of this bullshit this nonsense probably should have never happened
0:14:34 right and the really interesting analysis to your point will be okay how does this who are the winners
0:14:40 and losers versus a year ago and i’m not sure you know we’re going to come out with much different other
0:14:47 than a huge erosion and goodwill towards us exactly having said that it’s back to business it does feel
0:14:53 like the tariffs are a bit asymmetrically favored towards us and uh i’d like to think and i don’t
0:14:58 know if this was the case i’d like to think that trump said give me a win here give me a great press
0:15:05 release and i’ll continue to ship arms into ukraine and and uh bear hug and talk about how much i love
0:15:13 nato i don’t know if that happened but that is a big playing card but the other thing the first thing
0:15:19 i thought of is that europe is a union in name only that when you have the prime minister of france
0:15:26 coming out saying this is a terrible day they can’t even speak with one voice and so it’s it’s not easy
0:15:32 to have 27 member nations all with veto power trying to negotiate a deal like this so net net given where
0:15:40 we are given a trade war that made no sense to begin with i i call this a lowercase win for the
0:15:47 trump administration um even if it’s a perceptual win here ed i do think when you read this press release
0:15:52 and 27 you know eu member nations or whatever it is have signed up to this framework i think the trump
0:15:58 administration can can legitimately say this was a win for them this let me put it this way i think
0:16:04 you know the perception is the reality right now and the perception is is that our largest trading partner
0:16:10 in the world has come to an agreement for a framework that on the face of it looks like
0:16:17 it’s asymmetrically tilted towards the u.s uh we’ll see what happens here yeah we’ll see i don’t think it is
0:16:25 but but but but we will see um thank you that’s our little economist our little a little economist
0:16:32 subscriber he just he’s not having any of it it’s it’s those geniuses in brussels with their fondue
0:16:36 i’ll believe it when i see a deal i’ll believe it when i see a deal that is signed and sealed that’s
0:16:42 ratified that’s when i’ll start to believe any of this but i i’m not i’m not buying into these press
0:16:47 releases we’ve seen them too many times that’s a fair point all right thank you scott i’ll see you
0:16:54 tomorrow take care brother after the break wall street changes its tune on nike stay with us
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0:18:14 hunter biden’s three hour interview with andrew callahan started out normally enough
0:18:19 lore so you’re born here in delaware or born here in pennsylvania in delaware okay in delaware
0:18:26 yeah wilmington small talk what are your thoughts on wilmington delaware nice place oh yeah work family
0:18:33 addiction anyway i don’t want to tell people how to make crack cocaine he did then came the crash out i
0:18:39 hear rom emmanuel is gonna run for president like oh boy there’s the answer there’s the answer you
0:18:43 have the pod save america they’re saying you know i don’t think south carolina that’s only
0:18:50 what the i mean are they out of the minds i don’t have to be nice number one i agree with quentin
0:18:56 tarantino george clooney is not i don’t know what he is he he he’s a brand and by the way and god bless
0:19:02 him we’re not picking on him keep coming back hunter no in fact everybody has been crashing out lately and
0:19:11 today on today explained from vox we’re gonna ask what’s up hey this is peter kofka the host of
0:19:17 channels a show about media and tech and what happens when they collide and this may be hard to remember
0:19:23 but not very long ago magazines were a really big deal and the most important magazines were owned by
0:19:28 condé nast the glitzy publishing empire that’s the focus of a new book by new york times reporter
0:19:34 michael grinbaum the way condé nast elevated its editors the way they paid for their mortgages so
0:19:40 they could live in beautiful homes there was a logic to it which was that condé nast itself
0:19:46 became seen as this kind of enchanted land you can hear the rest of our chat on channels
0:19:49 wherever you listen to your favorite media podcast
0:20:01 we’re back with prof g markets wall street has officially turned bullish on nike a note from jp
0:20:07 morgan analysts upgraded the stock to a buy telling investors to quote just buy it jp morgan boosted
0:20:14 nike’s price target predicting a share price of 93 dollars by december of 2026 the bank also
0:20:21 increased the outlook for the company’s earnings per share in both fiscal years 2026 and 2027 and jp morgan
0:20:26 isn’t alone goldman sachs jeffries and august have also upgraded the stock in recent weeks
0:20:32 nike shares rose three percent on yesterday’s news and the stock is now trading at its highest level
0:20:39 in five months so this has been a pretty great week for nike a pretty great month for nike and it’s
0:20:44 coming at a time when things have been generally speaking quite bad for the company the stock fell
0:20:52 30 percent last year revenue fell nearly 10 percent net profit fell nearly 50 percent we also had this
0:20:57 tariff drama which is a big problem for a company that builds most of its products in china they also had
0:21:02 this management shakeup recently which forced them to withdraw their guidance in a recent earnings
0:21:09 report that was a problem they’ve had too much inventory they’ve had weak demand bad forecasting
0:21:16 we could go on forever things have not looked good for nike but it appears that something is
0:21:23 beginning to change perhaps it’s the new ceo elliot hill perhaps it’s market conditions we’re not
0:21:29 exactly sure but analysts on wall street are starting to take notice so to understand what exactly is going
0:21:35 on at nike our producer claire spoke with lorraine hutchinson a retail analyst at bank of america
0:21:41 i think the biggest thing that’s changed with nike is we have a line of sight that the worst is behind
0:21:48 us so they’ve had a lot of struggles with putting out products that’s way too lifestyle focused and they
0:21:55 oversold a lot of these key franchises rather than innovating and launching new franchises um
0:22:00 they had to clean that up under a new management team and that’s been really harmful to the sales and
0:22:06 the earnings of the company so now we’ve started to see some green shoots and signs that the worst
0:22:12 of that is behind us and i think that’s caused investors to focus more on what could earnings
0:22:18 look like as they come out of this really tough time would you say the stock has bottomed in that case
0:22:24 i think it has um we have a buy on the stock we think the stock goes higher from here based on continued
0:22:30 sequential trajectory in the sales and the margins what would you say elliot hill the ceo is doing
0:22:37 right so elliot hill joined um and diagnosed the problem very quickly he looked and saw these three
0:22:45 lifestyle styles as you being much too high a percentage of total sales and so he realized as
0:22:51 the sell through began to slow that nike needed to exit a lot of that volume very quickly they had
0:22:58 started this before he took over as ceo but they accelerated it dramatically so what does that mean
0:23:03 it means clearing through some of the liable product that’s already on the shelves it means buying back
0:23:10 some product from wholesale it means really trying to clean up the inventory out of the wholesale channel
0:23:16 and out of nike’s retail stores uh that was really the first thing he did he also reorganized the company
0:23:25 back to focusing on sport instead of gender or product it’s it’s now sport so they’re really very laser focused
0:23:31 on their heritage of being a performance company and that’s been a big cultural change for nike
0:23:39 that was lorraine hutchinson retail analyst at bank of america well it’ll be very interesting to see how this nike story
0:23:44 unfolds as we’ve said the past few years have been incredibly rough back in 2021 the stock was at an
0:23:50 all-time high the company was worth nearly 300 billion dollars since then the stock’s been more
0:23:56 than cut in half we’re looking at a market cap right now of less than 120 billion dollars and a lot of that
0:24:03 failure was blamed on the former ceo john donahoe who tried to lead this digital transformation of nike
0:24:09 investing in tech and e-commerce and even crypto even nfts which kind of seemed exciting at the time
0:24:17 but ultimately it came at the expense of the things that make nike nike things like brand product quality
0:24:23 wholesale partnerships etc so when john donahoe stepped down as ceo and elliot hill the former
0:24:30 nike exec took over the idea was that elliot would bring the company back to its roots that he would focus on
0:24:36 the things that made nike great and that was a big piece of why scott became bullish on nike
0:24:42 back in october of last year this was part of scott’s fallen angel thesis this idea that
0:24:48 these once iconic companies not just nike but also intel disney estee lauder that those companies
0:24:55 whose stocks had gotten battered in recent years would rediscover their roots and return to evaluation that
0:25:00 more accurately reflected their iconic status in american culture which as of the beginning of this
0:25:07 year they certainly didn’t that was the thesis at least well it would appear that it might be
0:25:13 beginning to materialize nike as lorraine pointed out is starting to turn things around
0:25:19 major banks are now upgrading the stock and despite this massive tariff exposure nike shares are up eight
0:25:25 percent year to date as for the other fallen angels intel has underperformed it’s up around two and a half
0:25:31 percent year to date disney’s done better up nine percent but the biggest winner to scott’s credit
0:25:38 has been estee lauder which has risen 25 percent in 2025 that is roughly the same return as nvidia
0:25:47 so is 2025 the year that the fallen angels rise up again well if sentiment towards nike our original
0:25:51 angel is any indication it would seem that a comeback is underway
0:26:02 anthropic is chasing a blockbuster valuation the ai startup is reportedly in talks to raise funding at
0:26:09 a valuation north of 150 billion dollars that is more than double its 61 and a half billion dollar
0:26:15 valuation from earlier this year and it would make it the third most valuable startup in the world this
0:26:20 comes as the company’s annual recurring revenue has quadrupled to four billion dollars since the
0:26:27 beginning of the year fueled by enterprise subscriptions and its coding assistant claude code now the startup
0:26:33 world is understandably very excited about this valuation about what it says about anthropic and
0:26:40 also what it says about the future of ai in general and that is totally fair and we agree however the more
0:26:46 interesting story here isn’t the jump in valuation the more interesting story here is who’s investing
0:26:53 according to the financial times anthropic has been holding talks with mgx which is the government owned
0:26:59 investment fund of the united arab emirates which on its face isn’t that interesting everyone’s raising
0:27:05 money in the gulf these days but it is more interesting when you realize that as of last year
0:27:12 anthropic made it a point that they would never raise money from the middle east according to the ceo
0:27:18 quote democracies need to be able to set the terms by which powerful ai is brought into the world both
0:27:24 to avoid being overpowered by authoritarians and to prevent human rights abuses within authoritarian
0:27:31 countries which is why last year anthropic specifically told its bankers that it would never raise money from
0:27:39 saudi arabia it’s also why dario amadei the ceo was the one notably absent ai leader during trump’s trip to
0:27:45 the middle east in the spring and it is also why he wrote a memo to employees explaining why it is dangerous
0:27:52 for ai companies to quote get in bed with the middle east in that same memo he wrote quote the basis of our
0:27:58 opposition to large training clusters in the middle east is that the supply chain of ai is dangerous to
0:28:07 hand to authoritarian governments fair enough i’m sure many would agree with him however here we are in
0:28:14 july and anthropic is in talks to raise money from the government of the uae a total reversal of what
0:28:23 was supposedly an ethical principle of the company in an attempt to justify this about face dario the ceo
0:28:29 wrote quote it’s perfectly consistent to advocate for a policy of no one is allowed to do x but then
0:28:36 if that policy fails and everyone else does x to reluctantly do x ourselves in other words he’s
0:28:42 basically saying we commit to not taking money from dictators unless of course the dictator shows up with
0:28:48 a ton of money and other people start taking his money too then we’ll reevaluate our commitment
0:28:55 so this is becoming a recurring theme on this show as we discussed a couple weeks ago silicon valley
0:29:00 has this tendency to make these bold ethical declarations and then to abandon them as soon
0:29:06 as it gets in the way of making money we saw it with open ai which was supposed to be a non-profit
0:29:12 to benefit humanity and then they reversed course on that we saw it with google which said it would never
0:29:17 work on weapons and then it just took up a 200 million dollar contract with the department of
0:29:22 defense we saw it with meta which made the same promises and then it started working on military
0:29:29 products with anduril over and over and over again these tech companies create mission statements and
0:29:37 ethical guidelines and humanitarian promises and to a near certainty they never follow through and this is
0:29:43 just another example of that principle it’s not really a tradable thesis it’s just you know something
0:29:50 to remember you can never trust a mission statement they are almost always empty especially the ones
0:29:57 from silicon valley the real mission of silicon valley and of corporate america at large is the same
0:30:05 as it’s always been it’s to make money and as we’ve said before there is nothing wrong with that so you
0:30:13 might as well just admit to it okay that’s it for today thanks for listening to prof g markets from
0:30:25 the vox media podcast network i’m ed elson i’ll see you tomorrow
0:30:41 you help me in kind reunion as the world’s heart
0:00:15 when they flip that little pos tablet towards you asking for the tip i always feel like i’m in a
0:00:22 moral crisis of whether or not i tip and how much i should tip because how much are they being paid
0:00:28 tipping the question on everyone’s minds we’ll bring you the answers this week on explain it to
0:00:38 mean get new episodes every sunday wherever you get your podcasts today’s number 75 that’s the
0:00:44 percentage of men in japan who give all of their money to their wife the system is called kozukai
0:00:51 the wife manages the finances and the man receives a monthly allowance meanwhile japan enjoys some of
0:00:57 the highest household savings rates and lowest personal bankruptcy rates in the world put another
0:01:02 way japan has discovered the ultimate money hack give everything to your wife
0:01:09 money markets matter if money is evil then that building is hell
0:01:22 welcome to prof g markets i’m ed elson it is july 29th let’s check in on yesterday’s market vitals
0:01:28 the major indices were mixed as investors digested the trade deal with the eu we’ll talk more about
0:01:34 that in a second the s&p 500 and the nasdaq both hit new records the dow fell slightly the dollar
0:01:40 climbed the most since may as the euro fell sharply and finally oil prices rose after president trump
0:01:48 shortened the timeline for russia to end the war with ukraine okay what else is happening trump has
0:01:54 reportedly struck a deal with america’s largest trading partner the eu while the details aren’t
0:02:00 yet confirmed it is reported that the eu has agreed to pay a 15 tariff rate on most goods europe also
0:02:06 agreed to increase their investment level in the u.s by more than 600 billion dollars this framework
0:02:13 follows the july 11th letter from trump which threatened a 30 tariff rate on eu goods unless a deal
0:02:19 could be struck by august 1st on the news the markets were mostly unaffected the s&p finished
0:02:26 the day about 0.2 percent higher the nasdaq closed up more than 0.3 percent the euro stock 600 and index
0:02:33 of leading european blue chip companies that ended the day down a little over 0.2 percent so trump has
0:02:40 completed a deal with the eu this one according to the president is quote the biggest deal ever reached
0:02:47 in any capacity this comes less than a week after trump made a deal with japan which was in his words
0:02:53 quote the largest deal ever made so both of them record-breaking deals this deal is even bigger than
0:03:00 the last one truly historic i say that sarcastically but i should add that actually a lot of people do
0:03:06 believe it many people online and in the media are viewing this deal as a crucial victory as evidence
0:03:13 that the trump strategy is working that he’s getting deals done that he is winning and it’s not just
0:03:18 jesse waters or people on fox it’s more than that here’s a bloomberg opinion headline from yesterday
0:03:25 quote europeans not trump ended up chickening out here’s another one quote trump wins the hulkamania
0:03:31 tariff brawl he started here’s a tweet from a mainstream financial journalist quote trump is
0:03:39 winning on trade so many people are calling this deal a win for trump and you can kind of see why
0:03:45 he threatened these tariffs and in return he got this commitment from the eu to invest 600 billion
0:03:53 into the u.s sounds pretty good but it also sounds very similar to the deal we saw with japan last week
0:04:00 which was a reduction in tariffs and in return a commitment to invest 550 billion dollars into the
0:04:06 u.s and so considering this is essentially the same thing i will ask essentially the same questions i asked
0:04:13 last week which are what are they investing in what are the terms of the investment what is the timeline
0:04:20 and has anything been signed and as with last week the answers this week are the same for the first
0:04:27 three questions the answer is we don’t know and for the final question the answer is no nothing has
0:04:34 been signed this is once again a framework of a deal meaning that everything trump is saying literally all
0:04:41 is subject to change and as we discussed last week this is a recurring theme in trump land that by the way
0:04:48 has consistently never worked whether it was the 200 billion dollar commitment from china which never actually
0:04:55 materialized or the 600 billion dollar investment plan that was a trillion and then 300 billion and then 600 billion
0:05:03 from saudi arabia hasn’t materialized or the 500 billion from apple or the 500 billion from open ai and soft
0:05:10 bank over and over again we see an announcement of a deal a big headline and then six months later we look
0:05:17 back and we realize actually no nothing ever happened nothing was signed nothing changed and thus no deal got done
0:05:26 this is the reality of trump’s deal making and what is most ironic about this is the fact that in the same week
0:05:33 that we learn of this historic trade deal with the eu we also learn some new information about the historic trade deal with japan
0:05:39 the trade deal that was supposed to have japan invest more than 500 billion dollars into america
0:05:45 and that america was supposed to receive 90 of the profits on that was the deal which by the way we said would
0:05:52 never materialize well we now have some clarification on that deal from the japanese government this came out
0:06:01 over the weekend according to japan’s chief negotiator of that 550 billion dollars only one percent of it will
0:06:09 actually be invested in america the remaining 99 are going to take place in the form of a loan
0:06:16 which the japanese government is going to collect interest on so put another way no japan isn’t
0:06:22 investing 550 billion dollars they’re investing five billion dollars and by the way the timeline has also
0:06:28 been clarified to three and a half years which means that japan’s annual investment into the us is going
0:06:34 to come out to one and a half billion dollars that is 26 times less than the amount of money open ai just
0:06:42 raised in a private venture round so as predicted the japan deal was not a deal the only thing we got
0:06:48 wrong about that one was that the truth came out way quicker than we anticipated and here we are all over
0:06:56 again with europe a 600 billion dollar commitment with no deal terms no timeline and no signatures now
0:07:01 people might say what about the 750 billion they say they’re going to spend on energy to which i would
0:07:08 say once again not a deal nothing’s been signed and in addition europe was already going to buy that energy
0:07:15 because of this very widely understood concept called the ukraine war so as has been proven with japan this
0:07:22 is once again not a deal this is a press release this is europe saying something to make donald trump
0:07:29 appear victorious and therefore make him happy we know that’s basically all he cares about so let’s go back
0:07:36 to our deal tracker and just to remind you of what our definition of what a deal is our definition is a
0:07:43 contract or a treaty that is signed and ratified into law that’s what we think a deal is this doesn’t meet
0:07:52 that definition so today is july 29th we’re about 190 days and probably 50 tariff announcements into this
0:07:59 presidential administration and we are currently sitting on a grand total of zero ds that’s where
0:08:04 we’re at let’s give scott a call i’m sure he has many reactions of his own
0:08:14 scott how’s it going it’s going really well how about you i’m doing well i see you’re in new york i am in
0:08:19 new york that’s right you recognize my apartment don’t you i recognize your background i recognize your
0:08:25 grayson perry on the wall that’s right that’s right my only my only piece of art one piece of art it’s
0:08:33 a good one well we want to get your take on this eu trade deal uh a historic deal apparently the biggest
0:08:39 deal ever reached in any capacity those are the president’s words um your reaction scott well first
0:08:46 off i’m curious what your thoughts are based on what i’ve read this is a good deal for the us and a bad
0:08:52 deal for the eu and that is it looks like a lot of our it looks like it’s asymmetrically advantage to
0:08:58 us in terms of tariffs they’re mostly opening their markets keeping their markets the same we’re opening
0:09:04 them further and i was trying to figure out how we ended up in a place with a better deal than them
0:09:11 other than obviously the genius deal making of the president uh and i think it’s a couple
0:09:16 things one i think this is where it really hurts to have 27 member countries that europe is not really
0:09:24 a union and two i think the elephant in the room and mia pointed this out is the u.s military umbrella
0:09:31 that the real existential threat of getting into a trade war with the united states is it it diminishes
0:09:38 their ability to push back on the russian army and ukraine and that also i think that for the first time
0:09:45 america potentially leaving nato and and folding or collapsing the military umbrella that the eu has
0:09:52 enjoyed is is a real possibility so i think for just market stability to get their businesses back to
0:09:57 planning again to try and i would imagine part of this was a wink and a nod that america will continue
0:10:05 to support the ukrainian army and also be a productive member or the base anchor of nato that they needed to
0:10:10 get this deal done the net net as far as i can tell if this framework becomes an actual tariff deal is
0:10:15 it’ll raise prices on u.s households about twenty four hundred dollars it’s interesting i guess their
0:10:23 primary our primary import from uh europe is you know i assumed it was air mess scarves it’s not it’s
0:10:33 pharmaceuticals uh so our prices do go up uh but this is uh just calling balls and strikes the way i see it and
0:10:39 i i do want your opinion here i feel like this is a win for trump that he got the better end of this
0:10:43 deal as far as i read it what are your thoughts that well i think a lot of people are saying that
0:10:50 and i gotta be honest i can’t see any reason why i mean this is the same thing we’ve seen before we’re
0:10:56 putting up a tariff and as we all know that tariff is a tax on us yes it’s going to lower demand
0:11:02 um on on europe’s side of things but ultimately who are we taxing we’re taxing the people who
0:11:08 import those products to america we’re taxing american companies so that’s america losing on
0:11:14 that side there’s also the america losing in terms of prices going up and then again we got to get to
0:11:21 the quid pro quo here what did we get in return well europe’s supposedly investing 600 billion
0:11:27 dollars in america but if history is any guide we’ve seen it with japan and with china and saudi arabia
0:11:32 means absolutely nothing nothing’s actually been signed here and so i don’t fully understand why
0:11:39 people have decided to wake up this morning and say oh this one’s legit this one makes sense this one’s a
0:11:44 win it’s a victory even the markets i mean perhaps they’re gleaning that information from the market’s
0:11:51 reaction but the market’s reaction was very very small s&p closed maybe 0.2 percent higher that’s
0:11:58 basically flat these days european market down 0.2 percent i mean in my view that’s not much of a
0:12:06 reaction so the way i see it again nothing’s nothing’s changed and you know we’ve gone over that but i i
0:12:14 guess i would i would be interested in why you your thoughts on why people might be seeing this as
0:12:22 something more substantial than anything we’ve seen before perhaps because it’s with the european union
0:12:29 and the tensions have been higher i mean what what is it you think about this deal that people decided to
0:12:36 say okay this one this one’s a win japan was kind of a a tie but this one’s a win for
0:12:42 trump this does feel a little bit ed and that one of two things happened either the eu said
0:12:47 we’re just going to play slow ball agree to a framework we need to get back to business
0:12:53 the the chill here the indecision is bad for everybody and we’ll work out the details and
0:12:57 maybe throw up arms in frustration and never get to a deal waiting for a democratic congress
0:13:03 or we got to placate this guy because we need arms to continue to flow into ukraine otherwise is
0:13:10 poland next so it feels to me like the us based on the framework i’ve saw has got the better end of
0:13:16 this deal i would have thought the eu would have responded with equivalent reciprocal tariffs and it
0:13:22 doesn’t look like that it looks like our tariffs that we’re managed and getting them at least in terms
0:13:27 of a framework to agree to are greater than the tariffs that are going to be imposed on us well perhaps
0:13:31 europe has realized that tariffs are attacks on themselves i mean this is a this is another big
0:13:36 piece of it you sound like that literally the physical embodiment of the economist magazine the
0:13:41 economist is saying the economist magazine has been saying for 40 years the reason for abusing the
0:13:48 reason to try that the the the kind of center of gravity for the economist is that free trade and free
0:13:53 markets are the way to go and i think you make a really solid argument as a matter of fact when i first saw
0:13:58 this i thought oh we’re lowering tariffs on everyone this is actually a free trade agreement and i agree
0:14:05 with you but this is where we are we’re on the we’re on it felt like we’re on the precipice of a trade war
0:14:11 where we were going to implement 50 he was you know he was threatening 30 and 50 taxes i thought they
0:14:16 would have reciprocated with those taxes and then we see economic growth just come to a standstill and then
0:14:24 the largest democracies in the world figure out a way to create openings for autocracies so this is
0:14:29 this whole framework all of this bullshit this nonsense probably should have never happened
0:14:34 right and the really interesting analysis to your point will be okay how does this who are the winners
0:14:40 and losers versus a year ago and i’m not sure you know we’re going to come out with much different other
0:14:47 than a huge erosion and goodwill towards us exactly having said that it’s back to business it does feel
0:14:53 like the tariffs are a bit asymmetrically favored towards us and uh i’d like to think and i don’t
0:14:58 know if this was the case i’d like to think that trump said give me a win here give me a great press
0:15:05 release and i’ll continue to ship arms into ukraine and and uh bear hug and talk about how much i love
0:15:13 nato i don’t know if that happened but that is a big playing card but the other thing the first thing
0:15:19 i thought of is that europe is a union in name only that when you have the prime minister of france
0:15:26 coming out saying this is a terrible day they can’t even speak with one voice and so it’s it’s not easy
0:15:32 to have 27 member nations all with veto power trying to negotiate a deal like this so net net given where
0:15:40 we are given a trade war that made no sense to begin with i i call this a lowercase win for the
0:15:47 trump administration um even if it’s a perceptual win here ed i do think when you read this press release
0:15:52 and 27 you know eu member nations or whatever it is have signed up to this framework i think the trump
0:15:58 administration can can legitimately say this was a win for them this let me put it this way i think
0:16:04 you know the perception is the reality right now and the perception is is that our largest trading partner
0:16:10 in the world has come to an agreement for a framework that on the face of it looks like
0:16:17 it’s asymmetrically tilted towards the u.s uh we’ll see what happens here yeah we’ll see i don’t think it is
0:16:25 but but but but we will see um thank you that’s our little economist our little a little economist
0:16:32 subscriber he just he’s not having any of it it’s it’s those geniuses in brussels with their fondue
0:16:36 i’ll believe it when i see a deal i’ll believe it when i see a deal that is signed and sealed that’s
0:16:42 ratified that’s when i’ll start to believe any of this but i i’m not i’m not buying into these press
0:16:47 releases we’ve seen them too many times that’s a fair point all right thank you scott i’ll see you
0:16:54 tomorrow take care brother after the break wall street changes its tune on nike stay with us
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0:18:06 slash disclosures
0:18:14 hunter biden’s three hour interview with andrew callahan started out normally enough
0:18:19 lore so you’re born here in delaware or born here in pennsylvania in delaware okay in delaware
0:18:26 yeah wilmington small talk what are your thoughts on wilmington delaware nice place oh yeah work family
0:18:33 addiction anyway i don’t want to tell people how to make crack cocaine he did then came the crash out i
0:18:39 hear rom emmanuel is gonna run for president like oh boy there’s the answer there’s the answer you
0:18:43 have the pod save america they’re saying you know i don’t think south carolina that’s only
0:18:50 what the i mean are they out of the minds i don’t have to be nice number one i agree with quentin
0:18:56 tarantino george clooney is not i don’t know what he is he he he’s a brand and by the way and god bless
0:19:02 him we’re not picking on him keep coming back hunter no in fact everybody has been crashing out lately and
0:19:11 today on today explained from vox we’re gonna ask what’s up hey this is peter kofka the host of
0:19:17 channels a show about media and tech and what happens when they collide and this may be hard to remember
0:19:23 but not very long ago magazines were a really big deal and the most important magazines were owned by
0:19:28 condé nast the glitzy publishing empire that’s the focus of a new book by new york times reporter
0:19:34 michael grinbaum the way condé nast elevated its editors the way they paid for their mortgages so
0:19:40 they could live in beautiful homes there was a logic to it which was that condé nast itself
0:19:46 became seen as this kind of enchanted land you can hear the rest of our chat on channels
0:19:49 wherever you listen to your favorite media podcast
0:20:01 we’re back with prof g markets wall street has officially turned bullish on nike a note from jp
0:20:07 morgan analysts upgraded the stock to a buy telling investors to quote just buy it jp morgan boosted
0:20:14 nike’s price target predicting a share price of 93 dollars by december of 2026 the bank also
0:20:21 increased the outlook for the company’s earnings per share in both fiscal years 2026 and 2027 and jp morgan
0:20:26 isn’t alone goldman sachs jeffries and august have also upgraded the stock in recent weeks
0:20:32 nike shares rose three percent on yesterday’s news and the stock is now trading at its highest level
0:20:39 in five months so this has been a pretty great week for nike a pretty great month for nike and it’s
0:20:44 coming at a time when things have been generally speaking quite bad for the company the stock fell
0:20:52 30 percent last year revenue fell nearly 10 percent net profit fell nearly 50 percent we also had this
0:20:57 tariff drama which is a big problem for a company that builds most of its products in china they also had
0:21:02 this management shakeup recently which forced them to withdraw their guidance in a recent earnings
0:21:09 report that was a problem they’ve had too much inventory they’ve had weak demand bad forecasting
0:21:16 we could go on forever things have not looked good for nike but it appears that something is
0:21:23 beginning to change perhaps it’s the new ceo elliot hill perhaps it’s market conditions we’re not
0:21:29 exactly sure but analysts on wall street are starting to take notice so to understand what exactly is going
0:21:35 on at nike our producer claire spoke with lorraine hutchinson a retail analyst at bank of america
0:21:41 i think the biggest thing that’s changed with nike is we have a line of sight that the worst is behind
0:21:48 us so they’ve had a lot of struggles with putting out products that’s way too lifestyle focused and they
0:21:55 oversold a lot of these key franchises rather than innovating and launching new franchises um
0:22:00 they had to clean that up under a new management team and that’s been really harmful to the sales and
0:22:06 the earnings of the company so now we’ve started to see some green shoots and signs that the worst
0:22:12 of that is behind us and i think that’s caused investors to focus more on what could earnings
0:22:18 look like as they come out of this really tough time would you say the stock has bottomed in that case
0:22:24 i think it has um we have a buy on the stock we think the stock goes higher from here based on continued
0:22:30 sequential trajectory in the sales and the margins what would you say elliot hill the ceo is doing
0:22:37 right so elliot hill joined um and diagnosed the problem very quickly he looked and saw these three
0:22:45 lifestyle styles as you being much too high a percentage of total sales and so he realized as
0:22:51 the sell through began to slow that nike needed to exit a lot of that volume very quickly they had
0:22:58 started this before he took over as ceo but they accelerated it dramatically so what does that mean
0:23:03 it means clearing through some of the liable product that’s already on the shelves it means buying back
0:23:10 some product from wholesale it means really trying to clean up the inventory out of the wholesale channel
0:23:16 and out of nike’s retail stores uh that was really the first thing he did he also reorganized the company
0:23:25 back to focusing on sport instead of gender or product it’s it’s now sport so they’re really very laser focused
0:23:31 on their heritage of being a performance company and that’s been a big cultural change for nike
0:23:39 that was lorraine hutchinson retail analyst at bank of america well it’ll be very interesting to see how this nike story
0:23:44 unfolds as we’ve said the past few years have been incredibly rough back in 2021 the stock was at an
0:23:50 all-time high the company was worth nearly 300 billion dollars since then the stock’s been more
0:23:56 than cut in half we’re looking at a market cap right now of less than 120 billion dollars and a lot of that
0:24:03 failure was blamed on the former ceo john donahoe who tried to lead this digital transformation of nike
0:24:09 investing in tech and e-commerce and even crypto even nfts which kind of seemed exciting at the time
0:24:17 but ultimately it came at the expense of the things that make nike nike things like brand product quality
0:24:23 wholesale partnerships etc so when john donahoe stepped down as ceo and elliot hill the former
0:24:30 nike exec took over the idea was that elliot would bring the company back to its roots that he would focus on
0:24:36 the things that made nike great and that was a big piece of why scott became bullish on nike
0:24:42 back in october of last year this was part of scott’s fallen angel thesis this idea that
0:24:48 these once iconic companies not just nike but also intel disney estee lauder that those companies
0:24:55 whose stocks had gotten battered in recent years would rediscover their roots and return to evaluation that
0:25:00 more accurately reflected their iconic status in american culture which as of the beginning of this
0:25:07 year they certainly didn’t that was the thesis at least well it would appear that it might be
0:25:13 beginning to materialize nike as lorraine pointed out is starting to turn things around
0:25:19 major banks are now upgrading the stock and despite this massive tariff exposure nike shares are up eight
0:25:25 percent year to date as for the other fallen angels intel has underperformed it’s up around two and a half
0:25:31 percent year to date disney’s done better up nine percent but the biggest winner to scott’s credit
0:25:38 has been estee lauder which has risen 25 percent in 2025 that is roughly the same return as nvidia
0:25:47 so is 2025 the year that the fallen angels rise up again well if sentiment towards nike our original
0:25:51 angel is any indication it would seem that a comeback is underway
0:26:02 anthropic is chasing a blockbuster valuation the ai startup is reportedly in talks to raise funding at
0:26:09 a valuation north of 150 billion dollars that is more than double its 61 and a half billion dollar
0:26:15 valuation from earlier this year and it would make it the third most valuable startup in the world this
0:26:20 comes as the company’s annual recurring revenue has quadrupled to four billion dollars since the
0:26:27 beginning of the year fueled by enterprise subscriptions and its coding assistant claude code now the startup
0:26:33 world is understandably very excited about this valuation about what it says about anthropic and
0:26:40 also what it says about the future of ai in general and that is totally fair and we agree however the more
0:26:46 interesting story here isn’t the jump in valuation the more interesting story here is who’s investing
0:26:53 according to the financial times anthropic has been holding talks with mgx which is the government owned
0:26:59 investment fund of the united arab emirates which on its face isn’t that interesting everyone’s raising
0:27:05 money in the gulf these days but it is more interesting when you realize that as of last year
0:27:12 anthropic made it a point that they would never raise money from the middle east according to the ceo
0:27:18 quote democracies need to be able to set the terms by which powerful ai is brought into the world both
0:27:24 to avoid being overpowered by authoritarians and to prevent human rights abuses within authoritarian
0:27:31 countries which is why last year anthropic specifically told its bankers that it would never raise money from
0:27:39 saudi arabia it’s also why dario amadei the ceo was the one notably absent ai leader during trump’s trip to
0:27:45 the middle east in the spring and it is also why he wrote a memo to employees explaining why it is dangerous
0:27:52 for ai companies to quote get in bed with the middle east in that same memo he wrote quote the basis of our
0:27:58 opposition to large training clusters in the middle east is that the supply chain of ai is dangerous to
0:28:07 hand to authoritarian governments fair enough i’m sure many would agree with him however here we are in
0:28:14 july and anthropic is in talks to raise money from the government of the uae a total reversal of what
0:28:23 was supposedly an ethical principle of the company in an attempt to justify this about face dario the ceo
0:28:29 wrote quote it’s perfectly consistent to advocate for a policy of no one is allowed to do x but then
0:28:36 if that policy fails and everyone else does x to reluctantly do x ourselves in other words he’s
0:28:42 basically saying we commit to not taking money from dictators unless of course the dictator shows up with
0:28:48 a ton of money and other people start taking his money too then we’ll reevaluate our commitment
0:28:55 so this is becoming a recurring theme on this show as we discussed a couple weeks ago silicon valley
0:29:00 has this tendency to make these bold ethical declarations and then to abandon them as soon
0:29:06 as it gets in the way of making money we saw it with open ai which was supposed to be a non-profit
0:29:12 to benefit humanity and then they reversed course on that we saw it with google which said it would never
0:29:17 work on weapons and then it just took up a 200 million dollar contract with the department of
0:29:22 defense we saw it with meta which made the same promises and then it started working on military
0:29:29 products with anduril over and over and over again these tech companies create mission statements and
0:29:37 ethical guidelines and humanitarian promises and to a near certainty they never follow through and this is
0:29:43 just another example of that principle it’s not really a tradable thesis it’s just you know something
0:29:50 to remember you can never trust a mission statement they are almost always empty especially the ones
0:29:57 from silicon valley the real mission of silicon valley and of corporate america at large is the same
0:30:05 as it’s always been it’s to make money and as we’ve said before there is nothing wrong with that so you
0:30:13 might as well just admit to it okay that’s it for today thanks for listening to prof g markets from
0:30:25 the vox media podcast network i’m ed elson i’ll see you tomorrow
0:30:41 you help me in kind reunion as the world’s heart
Ed and Scott break down the new trade deal between the U.S. and the E.U. Then, Ed explains why Wall Street analysts have started upgrading Nike’s stock. Finally, he unpacks Anthropic’s latest funding round and points out who might be backing the AI startup.
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