Ukraine and America’s Credibility Crisis — with Anne Applebaum

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0:02:24 Episode 375.
0:02:25 375 is the country code for Belarus.
0:02:28 In 1975, Jaws premiered.
0:02:30 I like to watch Jaws backwards
0:02:33 as it becomes a heartwarming story of a shark
0:02:36 that helps disabled people put their lives back together.
0:02:39 Go! Go! Go!
0:02:51 Welcome to the 375th episode of the Prop G Pod.
0:02:55 So, I’m very self-conscious about my dirty jokes now.
0:02:59 We had a guest who is a wonderful guest,
0:03:01 a very high-profile guest,
0:03:03 who does really well on the podcast,
0:03:05 basically say he can’t come on again
0:03:07 because he was so rattled, offended.
0:03:08 I don’t know what the word was.
0:03:08 He didn’t speak to me.
0:03:11 He spoke to the team about some of my profanity
0:03:12 at the beginning of the episode,
0:03:15 which is fair because it doesn’t matter
0:03:16 whether he’s right or wrong,
0:03:19 but he doesn’t need to be on a program
0:03:21 where he feels like he’s being strafed
0:03:23 by a certain, I don’t know,
0:03:25 approach that he’s not up for.
0:03:27 So, I totally respect that.
0:03:31 And it got me thinking about profanity and vulgarity
0:03:34 and the role it plays in our programming.
0:03:35 And I’ve been…
0:03:37 What have I been doing?
0:03:39 I’ve been mostly recovering…
0:03:40 Recovering?
0:03:45 Dealing with the critique of my book.
0:03:47 Notes on Being a Man, available on Amazon.
0:03:50 So, came out at number one
0:03:51 on the New York Times bestseller list.
0:03:53 I’ve never gotten above number five,
0:03:54 which is mostly a fact…
0:03:56 Mostly a function of the fact that, one,
0:03:58 the conversation is getting a lot of attention right now
0:03:59 around the role of men,
0:04:02 you know, the masculinity crisis, etc.
0:04:07 And also, I have been just a total media whore.
0:04:10 I’ve been going on TV and different podcasts
0:04:11 for the better part of 10 years.
0:04:14 You know, I’m generally a likable guy.
0:04:15 I try to help other people out.
0:04:16 So, when I had this book come out
0:04:17 and people heard about it,
0:04:19 everybody invited me on everywhere.
0:04:22 And my publicists are not worried about me,
0:04:23 or the publicists for the book
0:04:26 are not worried about me being overexposed.
0:04:28 And I’ve actually canceled a bunch of stuff this week
0:04:30 because I feel like it’s enough Scott already.
0:04:32 I feel like I’m AOL in the 90s,
0:04:34 where if you stick your hand in a cereal box,
0:04:36 you’re going to pull out some Scott.
0:04:39 And there’s been some really interesting feedback.
0:04:43 The most valid feedback, as it hurts,
0:04:43 so I know it’s right,
0:04:47 is that I’m too focused on reverse engineering my success
0:04:51 to advice that is unilaterally beneficial
0:04:52 for all young men,
0:04:54 recognizing that it may not work for them.
0:04:57 Specifically, economic security solved
0:04:59 a lot of my problems, a lot of my anxiety.
0:05:02 So, a lot of my counseling to young men
0:05:03 is how to become more economically viable.
0:05:06 And two, that they need to get a relationship,
0:05:09 that if you have money and a relationship,
0:05:11 that you will be okay.
0:05:13 And that that’s not true for everybody,
0:05:14 and some men are going to have access
0:05:15 to either of those things.
0:05:17 I think that’s a fair criticism.
0:05:19 But some of these,
0:05:21 some of these immediate,
0:05:23 just this gag reflex of,
0:05:26 oh, you know, men,
0:05:28 we’re not interested in helping you,
0:05:31 and it’s always part of the patriarchy,
0:05:32 and it’s women’s fault.
0:05:34 No, it’s not women’s fault.
0:05:36 And that’s not what we’re saying.
0:05:37 But that’s not the point of this.
0:05:38 The point of this is that
0:05:41 I wasted my fucking weekend
0:05:43 thinking about all this bullshit online.
0:05:47 And it has kept me glued to my phone,
0:05:48 went extremely online.
0:05:49 You’d think in my age,
0:05:50 and knowing as much as I do
0:05:53 about the algorithms of big tech
0:05:54 and how it is their job
0:05:55 just to keep me online
0:05:56 so they can sell me more
0:05:57 zip recruiter ads
0:05:58 or get me to,
0:05:58 I don’t know,
0:06:00 target me with the right ads
0:06:00 at the right time,
0:06:02 that you’d think I’d be somewhat smarter
0:06:03 and wouldn’t just go down
0:06:04 these rabbit holes
0:06:05 and get all bummed out.
0:06:06 And I’m still not.
0:06:07 I think we’re up against
0:06:08 just this godlike technology
0:06:12 with medieval institutions
0:06:12 regulating them
0:06:14 and paleolithic instincts
0:06:14 driving us.
0:06:16 And what’s the message here?
0:06:17 The message is that
0:06:19 you really do need to take stock
0:06:20 of your own screen time.
0:06:21 We have these apps
0:06:23 that keep our 15-year-old,
0:06:24 who I think does suffer
0:06:25 from a certain level
0:06:26 of screen addiction,
0:06:27 which supposedly affects
0:06:28 one in four kids,
0:06:31 to keep or to limit his use.
0:06:32 And I feel as if I need
0:06:34 to start limiting my own use
0:06:34 because I end up going down
0:06:35 these rabbit holes
0:06:37 and getting upset
0:06:37 and seeing all this shit
0:06:39 that I think misrepresents my work
0:06:40 and getting very disappointed
0:06:41 or angry.
0:06:42 The thing I think
0:06:43 we all need to do,
0:06:44 especially young men,
0:06:45 but all of us,
0:06:47 is say,
0:06:47 okay,
0:06:49 recognize a couple things.
0:06:50 One,
0:06:52 the world online
0:06:53 is a pretty small world.
0:06:54 And that is,
0:06:54 I used to get upset
0:06:55 or excited about
0:06:56 what was being said
0:06:57 about me
0:06:57 and about topics
0:06:58 I cared about on Twitter.
0:06:59 And then when I logged off
0:07:00 from Twitter,
0:07:00 when it kind of turned
0:07:02 into a Nazi porn bar,
0:07:03 I found that
0:07:05 it just didn’t matter.
0:07:06 it didn’t impact me
0:07:06 professionally,
0:07:07 financially,
0:07:09 and it was impacting me
0:07:10 positively,
0:07:10 emotionally,
0:07:11 and psychologically.
0:07:12 And you realize
0:07:13 how just fucking small
0:07:14 the world of Twitter is.
0:07:15 It’s like 1%
0:07:17 of Twitter users
0:07:17 are driving 90%
0:07:18 of the content.
0:07:20 And then I would say
0:07:20 probably a third
0:07:21 to two-thirds
0:07:21 of the content
0:07:22 is being driven
0:07:23 by bots
0:07:24 that just have,
0:07:25 are just part
0:07:26 of troll farms.
0:07:27 So one,
0:07:29 this is not the real world.
0:07:30 This is a part
0:07:31 of the world.
0:07:31 But what your friends
0:07:32 think of you,
0:07:33 what strangers
0:07:33 think of you,
0:07:34 what the majority
0:07:34 of people
0:07:35 think of you
0:07:36 who are not
0:07:37 on TikTok
0:07:38 or threads
0:07:39 or Instagram
0:07:40 all day long,
0:07:41 it’s just not,
0:07:42 it’s meaningful,
0:07:43 but it’s not profound.
0:07:45 And the thing
0:07:46 that is most disappointing
0:07:46 to me
0:07:48 about myself
0:07:49 is that
0:07:49 I oftentimes
0:07:50 let the bullshit
0:07:51 or the views
0:07:52 of strangers
0:07:53 impact my time
0:07:54 and my presence
0:07:55 and my well-being
0:07:56 around other people.
0:07:57 I don’t know
0:07:58 how I got here.
0:07:59 I don’t know
0:07:59 how I got here.
0:08:01 Anyways,
0:08:03 what’s going on
0:08:03 in today’s episode,
0:08:04 you might be asking?
0:08:05 Well,
0:08:05 I’ll tell you.
0:08:07 In today’s episode,
0:08:07 we speak with
0:08:08 Ann Applebaum,
0:08:09 a Pulitzer Prize-winning
0:08:10 historian and staff writer
0:08:11 at The Atlantic.
0:08:13 I love
0:08:15 Ann Applebaum.
0:08:16 And I not only love
0:08:17 how incredibly smart
0:08:19 and measured
0:08:19 and thoughtful
0:08:20 she is,
0:08:21 Jesus Christ,
0:08:22 make her secretary
0:08:23 of fucking state.
0:08:23 Anyway,
0:08:24 one of the things
0:08:24 I love
0:08:25 about social media
0:08:26 is it brings
0:08:27 attention
0:08:28 to people
0:08:28 who are just
0:08:29 so outstanding
0:08:30 that their content
0:08:31 resonates for the moment.
0:08:32 And this is how
0:08:33 I found Ann Applebaum.
0:08:34 I think this is going
0:08:35 to be her second
0:08:35 or third time
0:08:36 on the show.
0:08:37 Anyways,
0:08:38 I’m just an enormous
0:08:39 fan of Ann’s.
0:08:40 So,
0:08:41 with that,
0:08:42 here’s our conversation
0:08:44 with Ann Applebaum.
0:08:58 Ann,
0:08:59 you are one of our
0:09:00 favorite guests.
0:09:01 I think this might
0:09:02 be the third time.
0:09:02 Where does this podcast
0:09:03 find you?
0:09:04 I’m in the offices
0:09:06 of the Atlantic Monthly
0:09:07 magazine in Washington,
0:09:08 D.C.,
0:09:09 which is a rare occasion,
0:09:10 actually.
0:09:12 The Atlantic Monthly
0:09:13 in Washington, D.C.
0:09:13 Wow.
0:09:14 All right,
0:09:15 let’s bust right into it.
0:09:17 We’re recording this
0:09:17 in the middle of what
0:09:18 the New York Times
0:09:19 called a week of hasty
0:09:20 diplomacy around
0:09:21 the war in Ukraine,
0:09:23 leaked peace plans,
0:09:24 private negotiations,
0:09:24 and a swirl
0:09:25 of business dealings.
0:09:27 Putin is set to meet
0:09:29 with U.S. Envoy Steve Witkoff
0:09:30 and Jared Kushner,
0:09:31 and as we speak,
0:09:31 no peace agreement
0:09:33 has been accepted or signed.
0:09:34 Ann,
0:09:35 give us the current
0:09:35 state of play.
0:09:36 What’s actually happening
0:09:37 on the ground
0:09:39 and in these negotiations?
0:09:40 So,
0:09:41 the negotiations
0:09:42 are
0:09:44 a somewhat
0:09:45 strange product
0:09:47 of a series
0:09:48 of conversations
0:09:50 that Steve Witkoff
0:09:51 and maybe others
0:09:52 have been having
0:09:53 with a guy
0:09:54 called Kirill
0:09:55 Dmitriev,
0:09:56 who’s the head
0:09:56 of Russia’s
0:09:57 Sovereign Wealth Fund
0:09:59 over the last
0:09:59 several weeks
0:10:00 and months,
0:10:01 actually.
0:10:02 And
0:10:04 remembering that
0:10:06 neither Steve Witkoff
0:10:07 nor Kirill Dmitriev
0:10:08 has as their
0:10:09 main goal
0:10:11 the conclusion
0:10:12 of the war
0:10:13 and the preservation
0:10:14 of the sovereignty
0:10:14 of Ukraine
0:10:15 and the defense
0:10:16 of Europe
0:10:17 and a secure
0:10:19 future for Europe
0:10:19 and for Ukraine,
0:10:20 they seem
0:10:21 to have
0:10:21 as their
0:10:22 main goal
0:10:23 the creation
0:10:25 of a possible
0:10:25 new set
0:10:26 of American
0:10:27 and Russian
0:10:27 business deals.
0:10:29 And we know
0:10:29 this both
0:10:31 because of
0:10:31 reporting,
0:10:32 really quite
0:10:32 amazing reporting
0:10:33 in the Wall Street Journal
0:10:35 as well as
0:10:36 a few months ago
0:10:37 in the Financial Times.
0:10:39 We know this
0:10:40 because the original
0:10:41 version of a peace deal
0:10:42 that they presented
0:10:43 had a whole
0:10:44 long list
0:10:46 of plans,
0:10:47 American-Russian
0:10:48 plans,
0:10:48 including
0:10:50 looking for
0:10:51 minerals in the Arctic
0:10:54 and oil and gas
0:10:54 infrastructure
0:10:56 and maybe
0:10:57 the use
0:10:58 of some
0:10:58 frozen Russian
0:10:59 assets that are
0:11:00 in European banks
0:11:02 by Americans
0:11:03 to develop Russia.
0:11:05 So that seems
0:11:06 to be their
0:11:08 primary interest.
0:11:09 And they came up
0:11:09 with this
0:11:11 28-point peace plan
0:11:13 that was
0:11:13 completely unacceptable
0:11:15 either to the Ukrainians
0:11:16 or to the Europeans.
0:11:17 it was somehow
0:11:19 then modified.
0:11:21 Secretary Rubio
0:11:22 got involved,
0:11:23 modified,
0:11:23 changed.
0:11:24 There’s another
0:11:25 version of it
0:11:25 which we haven’t
0:11:26 seen yet
0:11:27 that Steve Witkoff
0:11:28 is supposedly
0:11:29 taking to Moscow.
0:11:29 I mean,
0:11:29 really,
0:11:30 as we’re speaking,
0:11:30 as we’re having
0:11:31 this conversation,
0:11:32 he’s there.
0:11:33 What’s disturbing
0:11:35 about this episode
0:11:36 is that it
0:11:38 shows something
0:11:39 very ugly
0:11:40 about this
0:11:40 administration,
0:11:41 namely,
0:11:43 and it raises
0:11:44 a question,
0:11:45 in whose name
0:11:45 are they
0:11:46 conducting
0:11:47 American foreign
0:11:47 policy?
0:11:48 Is this for
0:11:50 the security
0:11:51 and prosperity
0:11:51 of America
0:11:52 and our allies?
0:11:54 Or is this
0:11:54 something that’s
0:11:55 happening on
0:11:56 behalf of
0:11:57 companies,
0:11:58 maybe even
0:11:59 some involving
0:12:00 the family
0:12:00 of Trump
0:12:02 or of Witkoff
0:12:03 who are
0:12:04 hoping to make
0:12:05 money out of
0:12:05 this negotiation?
0:12:07 That’s where we
0:12:08 are right now.
0:12:09 and I think
0:12:09 it’s,
0:12:10 I’ve talked
0:12:10 to a lot
0:12:11 of people,
0:12:11 I can’t
0:12:12 find an
0:12:13 exact precedent
0:12:14 in American
0:12:15 history before
0:12:17 where something
0:12:18 this high stakes
0:12:19 and at this
0:12:19 high level
0:12:20 and involving
0:12:21 the security
0:12:22 of so many
0:12:22 millions of
0:12:23 people
0:12:24 and so many
0:12:24 other countries
0:12:26 was being
0:12:27 conducted by
0:12:27 essentially
0:12:28 business people
0:12:29 whose main
0:12:29 interest was
0:12:30 business deals.
0:12:32 isn’t this a
0:12:33 continuing pattern?
0:12:34 We’ve monetized
0:12:35 access to the
0:12:36 White House,
0:12:36 we’ve monetized
0:12:37 the pardon
0:12:37 system.
0:12:38 I mean,
0:12:39 isn’t this a
0:12:40 continuation of
0:12:41 the Corp Brand
0:12:42 Association thus
0:12:43 far and that
0:12:44 is one of
0:12:45 grift?
0:12:46 Yes.
0:12:46 I mean,
0:12:47 I suppose the
0:12:49 shock for the
0:12:50 outside world
0:12:51 and as you
0:12:51 know,
0:12:52 I live part of
0:12:52 the time in
0:12:53 Europe,
0:12:53 I have a
0:12:54 Polish husband
0:12:55 who’s involved
0:12:56 in all this
0:12:57 stuff as well.
0:12:58 He’s a Polish
0:12:58 diplomat,
0:12:58 well,
0:12:59 no,
0:12:59 he’s the
0:13:01 Polish foreign
0:13:02 minister and
0:13:02 I’m continually
0:13:04 hearing from
0:13:05 not just
0:13:05 Poles,
0:13:05 but from
0:13:06 British friends,
0:13:07 from German
0:13:07 friends,
0:13:08 I’m continually
0:13:09 hearing this
0:13:10 kind of shock
0:13:11 and surprise
0:13:11 that even
0:13:12 this,
0:13:12 I mean,
0:13:12 I guess
0:13:13 everybody got
0:13:14 used to the
0:13:14 idea that
0:13:14 American
0:13:15 politics are
0:13:16 corrupt or
0:13:16 there are
0:13:16 elements of
0:13:17 corruption in
0:13:17 our system,
0:13:19 but that even
0:13:19 at this level
0:13:20 that it would
0:13:21 be that corrupt
0:13:23 remains surprising
0:13:24 to other people.
0:13:25 Maybe it’s not
0:13:26 really surprising
0:13:27 to us anymore,
0:13:27 but yeah,
0:13:29 I think it is
0:13:29 an extension
0:13:30 of other
0:13:31 decisions.
0:13:31 I mean,
0:13:31 we’re talking
0:13:32 in a week
0:13:33 when at the
0:13:34 same time,
0:13:35 speaking of
0:13:35 foreign policy,
0:13:37 Trump is also
0:13:39 working himself
0:13:39 up or maybe
0:13:40 members of his
0:13:40 administration
0:13:41 are working
0:13:41 themselves up
0:13:42 to have some
0:13:42 kind of conflict
0:13:43 with Venezuela
0:13:44 on the grounds
0:13:45 that it’s a
0:13:46 narco-terrorist
0:13:46 state.
0:13:48 And at the
0:13:48 meantime,
0:13:50 exactly in the
0:13:50 same week,
0:13:52 they’ve pardoned
0:13:52 a former
0:13:53 president of
0:13:54 Honduras who
0:13:54 was in jail
0:13:56 on cocaine
0:13:56 charges,
0:13:58 apparently because
0:13:58 maybe he has
0:13:59 business
0:13:59 dealings
0:14:00 with some
0:14:01 people who
0:14:01 are around
0:14:02 Trump or
0:14:02 close to
0:14:02 Trump.
0:14:05 So it looks
0:14:06 more and more
0:14:06 like the main
0:14:07 motivations for
0:14:08 everything,
0:14:08 you’re right,
0:14:08 not just
0:14:09 foreign policy,
0:14:10 are to do
0:14:11 with the
0:14:12 business interests
0:14:12 of people
0:14:13 in the
0:14:13 entourage.
0:14:15 Well, just
0:14:15 along those
0:14:16 lines, I’m
0:14:17 curious, you
0:14:18 validate or
0:14:18 nullify the
0:14:19 thesis, I
0:14:19 think with
0:14:20 somewhere between
0:14:21 if my son had
0:14:22 committed a crime
0:14:23 and was in
0:14:23 prison, I
0:14:24 think with
0:14:25 somewhere between
0:14:25 $3 and $10
0:14:26 million with my
0:14:27 connections, I
0:14:28 could figure out
0:14:28 a way to get
0:14:29 to the White
0:14:29 House, communicate,
0:14:31 I’m going to
0:14:32 make a seven or
0:14:32 eight figure
0:14:33 donation to the
0:14:33 East Wing
0:14:34 renovation and
0:14:35 get my son out
0:14:36 of prison.
0:14:37 I legitimately
0:14:37 think I could
0:14:38 accomplish that
0:14:39 right now.
0:14:39 Your thoughts?
0:14:40 I would be
0:14:41 amazed if you
0:14:42 couldn’t do it.
0:14:42 I don’t even
0:14:43 know if you need
0:14:43 special
0:14:44 connections.
0:14:45 I mean, you
0:14:47 need to make a
0:14:47 donation to the
0:14:48 East Wing or
0:14:49 you need to
0:14:50 buy into the
0:14:51 president’s
0:14:52 cryptocurrency fund.
0:14:52 I mean, there
0:14:53 are lots of
0:14:53 ways to do it.
0:14:54 And you can
0:14:54 buy into the
0:14:55 cryptocurrency fund
0:14:56 anonymously.
0:14:57 You can do it
0:14:59 as an anonymous
0:15:00 shell company.
0:15:01 And so actually
0:15:02 nobody would have
0:15:02 to know except
0:15:03 the people who
0:15:05 run that fund,
0:15:06 which, by the
0:15:07 way, includes
0:15:08 Zach Witkoff,
0:15:08 who is Steve
0:15:09 Witkoff’s son.
0:15:10 I’m not even
0:15:11 sure you have to
0:15:12 be an insider.
0:15:12 I don’t know if
0:15:13 you have to be a
0:15:14 MAGA Republican.
0:15:14 I don’t think
0:15:16 anything ideological
0:15:16 is required.
0:15:17 I think it’s
0:15:17 really just
0:15:18 money.
0:15:20 Before we talk
0:15:21 about the
0:15:22 piece you wrote
0:15:22 for The Atlantic
0:15:23 around the
0:15:23 peace plan,
0:15:26 I’m curious,
0:15:28 let’s assume,
0:15:29 all right,
0:15:30 we get to
0:15:30 some sense
0:15:31 of normalcy.
0:15:33 In your view,
0:15:35 give us a
0:15:36 historical context
0:15:37 for whether,
0:15:38 if you do
0:15:39 believe that,
0:15:40 in fact,
0:15:42 real egregious
0:15:42 crimes have been
0:15:43 committed here
0:15:44 up and
0:15:44 down the
0:15:45 stack,
0:15:46 from the
0:15:46 Secretary of
0:15:46 War,
0:15:47 maybe a
0:15:48 war crime,
0:15:49 to outright
0:15:50 grift and
0:15:53 corruption that
0:15:55 makes us less
0:15:55 safe overseas
0:15:56 that will take
0:15:57 decades to
0:15:57 repair.
0:15:59 Historically,
0:16:00 when a
0:16:00 democracy like
0:16:01 ours faces
0:16:02 this type of
0:16:03 corruption,
0:16:04 or if you
0:16:05 believe that
0:16:06 this, in fact,
0:16:06 has been
0:16:07 wrongdoing,
0:16:08 how does a
0:16:09 democracy best
0:16:10 move past it?
0:16:11 is it to
0:16:11 forgive it
0:16:11 and move
0:16:12 on,
0:16:12 or is it
0:16:13 to have
0:16:13 something
0:16:13 resembling
0:16:14 some sort
0:16:15 of tribunal?
0:16:17 I am not
0:16:18 sure,
0:16:19 because I
0:16:20 don’t know
0:16:20 of an
0:16:22 exact historical
0:16:23 parallel to
0:16:24 what we are
0:16:25 living through.
0:16:26 Very often,
0:16:27 when you have
0:16:28 this kind of
0:16:29 corruption takeover
0:16:29 system,
0:16:31 it results in
0:16:32 some kind of
0:16:32 collapse or
0:16:33 disaster or
0:16:34 war,
0:16:35 and it’s
0:16:36 usually after
0:16:37 the collapse or
0:16:38 disaster or
0:16:38 war that you
0:16:39 have the
0:16:39 moment of
0:16:40 reckoning,
0:16:41 when people
0:16:41 say,
0:16:43 that was too
0:16:43 much, we
0:16:44 need to
0:16:44 change our
0:16:45 system, we
0:16:46 need to
0:16:46 change our
0:16:47 constitution,
0:16:49 we need
0:16:49 bigger, deeper
0:16:50 changes to
0:16:50 prevent this
0:16:51 from happening
0:16:51 again, and
0:16:52 of course, I
0:16:52 don’t wish
0:16:53 something like
0:16:53 that to
0:16:54 happen.
0:16:58 But in the
0:16:58 absence of it
0:16:59 happening, I
0:16:59 don’t know how
0:17:01 you reach
0:17:02 enough people,
0:17:02 how you
0:17:03 shake the
0:17:04 foundation of
0:17:04 politics.
0:17:06 I’ve just
0:17:07 started to
0:17:07 read Jill
0:17:08 Lepore’s
0:17:08 new book,
0:17:09 which is,
0:17:10 it’s about
0:17:11 the American
0:17:11 constitution,
0:17:12 and one of
0:17:13 the points
0:17:14 she makes
0:17:14 is that often
0:17:16 our constitution
0:17:16 has been
0:17:17 amended, at
0:17:17 least in the
0:17:18 most serious
0:17:19 ways, after
0:17:19 a war.
0:17:20 So firstly,
0:17:22 after the
0:17:23 revolution, and
0:17:23 then after the
0:17:24 civil war, that’s
0:17:25 when we got
0:17:26 the amendments
0:17:27 that allowed
0:17:27 black people to
0:17:28 vote and
0:17:29 change the
0:17:29 nature of
0:17:29 American
0:17:30 citizenship.
0:17:31 Then after
0:17:32 World War I,
0:17:32 there were a
0:17:32 number of
0:17:33 important
0:17:33 amendments,
0:17:35 women’s
0:17:36 suffrage being
0:17:37 one of them,
0:17:37 and it’s
0:17:38 almost as if
0:17:39 you need
0:17:40 some big
0:17:40 moment of
0:17:41 change to
0:17:42 convince people
0:17:43 that the
0:17:44 foundations of
0:17:45 the system
0:17:48 are rotten.
0:17:49 And I don’t
0:17:50 right now see
0:17:52 how we get
0:17:53 to that, and
0:17:53 the scenarios
0:17:54 that would
0:17:55 lead us to
0:17:55 that aren’t
0:17:56 good, and so
0:17:56 I don’t wish
0:17:57 for them.
0:17:58 I mean, one
0:17:58 would really
0:17:59 have to have
0:18:01 a, the
0:18:01 only other
0:18:02 alternative I
0:18:02 can think of
0:18:03 is that there
0:18:03 needs to be
0:18:04 just a lot
0:18:05 more awareness
0:18:06 among ordinary
0:18:08 people of
0:18:09 how, you
0:18:10 know, how
0:18:10 bad it’s
0:18:11 gotten.
0:18:11 You know, I
0:18:12 know that a
0:18:13 lot of, for
0:18:13 a lot of
0:18:15 Americans, this
0:18:16 doesn’t feel like
0:18:16 something new.
0:18:17 A lot of
0:18:18 Americans, partly
0:18:18 because of the
0:18:19 way they’ve
0:18:20 been reading
0:18:21 and thinking
0:18:21 and learning
0:18:22 about politics
0:18:22 in the last
0:18:24 several years,
0:18:25 think that
0:18:25 Washington is
0:18:26 corrupt anyway,
0:18:27 and everything
0:18:27 has always been
0:18:28 corrupt, and
0:18:29 this is exactly,
0:18:29 you know, it’s
0:18:30 just an extension
0:18:31 of past
0:18:32 corruption, and
0:18:32 explaining to
0:18:33 them that this
0:18:33 is something
0:18:35 qualitatively
0:18:35 different, that
0:18:36 this is a
0:18:37 different kind
0:18:37 of behavior,
0:18:39 that American
0:18:40 foreign policy
0:18:40 has never been
0:18:42 for sale at
0:18:43 this level with
0:18:44 these kinds of
0:18:44 stakes before.
0:18:46 I think, you
0:18:47 know, the best I
0:18:48 can do is write
0:18:49 about it and talk
0:18:50 about it, and I
0:18:51 know you’re doing
0:18:52 that too, in
0:18:53 order to convince
0:18:54 enough people,
0:18:55 you know, to
0:18:56 take this moment
0:18:57 seriously and
0:18:58 have it change
0:18:59 their behavior,
0:19:00 make them
0:19:00 vote, make
0:19:01 them get
0:19:01 involved in
0:19:02 politics, make
0:19:04 them participate,
0:19:05 because it’s
0:19:05 really, without
0:19:06 that, it’s
0:19:08 hard to see, it’s
0:19:08 really hard to
0:19:09 see how you
0:19:09 change.
0:19:09 I mean,
0:19:10 interesting
0:19:11 comparison.
0:19:11 I haven’t
0:19:12 written this
0:19:12 yet, although
0:19:13 I hope to
0:19:13 do it in the
0:19:14 next few
0:19:15 days.
0:19:15 I talked
0:19:16 this morning
0:19:18 to a senior
0:19:18 figure who’s
0:19:19 involved in a
0:19:20 corruption
0:19:21 investigation inside
0:19:21 Ukraine.
0:19:23 Maybe you’ve
0:19:23 heard that
0:19:25 the Ukrainian
0:19:26 state is
0:19:26 investigating
0:19:27 itself, which
0:19:27 is actually
0:19:28 at this
0:19:28 point in
0:19:29 history hard
0:19:29 to imagine
0:19:30 in the
0:19:30 United States.
0:19:32 There’s an
0:19:33 anti-corruption
0:19:34 bureau inside
0:19:34 the government
0:19:35 and they are
0:19:36 investigating people,
0:19:36 some of whom
0:19:37 are very close
0:19:37 to the
0:19:39 president, for
0:19:39 a kind of
0:19:40 kickback scheme
0:19:41 to do with
0:19:41 the energy
0:19:42 industry.
0:19:43 The details
0:19:44 aren’t that
0:19:44 important.
0:19:44 What matters
0:19:45 is that it’s
0:19:46 the Ukrainian
0:19:47 state that’s
0:19:47 doing it.
0:19:48 It’s as if
0:19:49 our FBI was
0:19:50 investigating our
0:19:51 president, which
0:19:52 right now is
0:19:53 hard to imagine.
0:19:54 You can’t imagine
0:19:54 that happening.
0:19:56 And I asked
0:19:57 the investigator,
0:19:58 how is it that
0:19:59 you have the
0:20:00 legitimacy to do
0:20:00 this?
0:20:01 How do you have
0:20:02 the support to
0:20:03 do it?
0:20:03 And he said,
0:20:04 look, it comes
0:20:04 from Ukrainians.
0:20:06 There was a
0:20:06 moment last
0:20:07 summer when
0:20:08 some people in
0:20:08 the presidential
0:20:09 administration tried
0:20:10 to shut down
0:20:11 this investigation
0:20:12 and there were
0:20:13 popular protests.
0:20:14 Ukrainians
0:20:15 understand that
0:20:16 this is an
0:20:17 important part of
0:20:17 their democracy.
0:20:18 They want
0:20:19 corruption ended.
0:20:20 They think it’s
0:20:21 important, not
0:20:23 just for moral
0:20:24 reasons, but
0:20:24 because corruption
0:20:25 weakens them
0:20:26 and makes them
0:20:27 more susceptible
0:20:28 to Russian
0:20:29 bribery and
0:20:30 blackmail and
0:20:30 so on.
0:20:33 So this is a
0:20:35 state body that’s
0:20:36 acting with the
0:20:37 support of
0:20:38 Ukrainians.
0:20:39 And I don’t
0:20:40 know that we
0:20:41 have the
0:20:41 equivalent movement
0:20:42 here.
0:20:44 Could you imagine
0:20:45 big national
0:20:46 protests if,
0:20:47 well, you can’t
0:20:48 imagine it because
0:20:48 it’s already
0:20:48 happened.
0:20:50 If the president
0:20:51 were to replace
0:20:52 the heads of
0:20:52 the FBI and
0:20:53 the Department
0:20:53 of Justice
0:20:55 with flunkies
0:20:55 who would never
0:20:56 investigate him,
0:20:57 what would happen?
0:20:57 I mean, we know
0:20:58 what would happen.
0:20:58 Nothing would
0:20:59 happen because
0:21:01 that’s what took
0:21:01 place early this
0:21:01 year.
0:21:03 And I just think
0:21:04 Americans have
0:21:05 lost the
0:21:08 ability to be
0:21:09 shocked or the
0:21:10 ability to
0:21:12 absorb the ways
0:21:12 in which this
0:21:13 is different.
0:21:14 And so, as I
0:21:15 say, all I can
0:21:15 think of to do
0:21:16 right now is to
0:21:17 explain it to
0:21:18 people as
0:21:18 much as
0:21:18 possible.
0:21:22 We’ll be right
0:21:22 back after a
0:21:23 quick break.
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0:24:19 You wrote for the
0:24:21 Atlantic about this
0:24:22 peace plan, which many
0:24:23 are actually calling a
0:24:25 capitulation document.
0:24:28 Can you break down the
0:24:29 quote unquote peace
0:24:31 plan for us and what
0:24:31 you think is the
0:24:32 likelihood that
0:24:35 something resembling
0:24:36 this ends up getting
0:24:37 more traction than it
0:24:38 has today?
0:24:39 There are a couple
0:24:40 central pieces of it.
0:24:41 I mean, I think the
0:24:42 most controversial
0:24:45 piece is that the U.S.
0:24:46 is promising to
0:24:49 recognize all or most
0:24:49 of them.
0:24:50 There’s several, there
0:24:51 are now several versions
0:24:51 of this kicking around,
0:24:53 so I’m going to be a
0:24:53 little vague.
0:24:56 But all or some of
0:24:58 Russia’s, of the
0:24:59 occupied territories of
0:24:59 Ukraine.
0:25:00 so that’s Crimea,
0:25:00 that’s eastern
0:25:01 Ukraine, Donbass,
0:25:03 Luhansk, and maybe
0:25:04 some of the other
0:25:04 territories too.
0:25:06 But more than that,
0:25:08 it asks the Ukrainians
0:25:10 to give up territory
0:25:11 that has not been
0:25:11 conquered.
0:25:14 So this is a part of
0:25:14 Donetsk.
0:25:15 Donetsk is a province
0:25:16 of Ukraine.
0:25:17 The Russians have
0:25:18 conquered part of it.
0:25:19 In fact, they conquered
0:25:20 a lot of it in 2014
0:25:22 when, as a part of a
0:25:24 surprise attack, right
0:25:25 after they occupied
0:25:25 Crimea.
0:25:27 And they’ve really
0:25:28 been trying to conquer
0:25:30 this whole province
0:25:31 since then, so 11
0:25:32 years.
0:25:33 And they haven’t been
0:25:34 able to do it.
0:25:35 And they’re now losing,
0:25:37 again, I spoke to
0:25:37 someone last night who
0:25:38 reminded me of these
0:25:39 numbers, they’re now
0:25:41 losing 15,000 to 20,000
0:25:44 people a month trying
0:25:45 to conquer Donetsk.
0:25:46 And that’s, I guess,
0:25:48 that’s killed and
0:25:48 wounded.
0:25:50 But that’s still 15,000
0:25:51 to 20,000 soldiers being
0:25:52 knocked out every month
0:25:54 in order to conquer this
0:25:55 piece of territory that
0:25:56 they can’t conquer.
0:25:58 And what they want is,
0:25:58 they want the Trump
0:26:00 administration to
0:26:02 intervene and give
0:26:03 them this territory for
0:26:03 free.
0:26:07 And this is not only
0:26:08 controversial because it
0:26:09 rewards the Russians
0:26:12 for nothing, but also
0:26:14 it’s probably politically
0:26:14 impossible.
0:26:16 I don’t think President
0:26:17 Zelensky could stay in
0:26:17 office.
0:26:18 He can’t stay in office
0:26:20 and just turn over
0:26:21 this piece of land.
0:26:23 It’s right now very
0:26:25 heavily fortified land.
0:26:27 It’s not especially,
0:26:29 you know, populated
0:26:30 anymore.
0:26:31 Most people have left
0:26:31 that part of Ukraine,
0:26:33 but it’s very heavily
0:26:33 fortified.
0:26:35 And so the Ukrainians
0:26:36 would be giving up this
0:26:38 fortified territory, and
0:26:39 that would allow the
0:26:40 Russians then to set up,
0:26:42 presumably, to make
0:26:43 another attempt to
0:26:44 conquer central Ukraine
0:26:45 later on.
0:26:46 And that’s what it looks
0:26:48 like to the Ukrainians.
0:26:49 You know, so the Russians
0:26:50 haven’t been able to win
0:26:52 the war militarily, now
0:26:53 they’re trying to win it
0:26:55 through bribing the
0:26:56 Americans, promising
0:26:57 things to the Americans,
0:26:59 and then, you know,
0:27:00 getting the Americans to
0:27:01 pressure the Ukrainians to
0:27:02 give up this territory,
0:27:04 supposedly, in the name
0:27:04 of peace.
0:27:05 So that’s probably the
0:27:06 most controversial
0:27:09 piece of the deal.
0:27:10 And that seems to be
0:27:11 something that Putin
0:27:12 himself thought up.
0:27:13 And it’s been kicking
0:27:14 around for a while.
0:27:15 And in fact, when I first
0:27:18 saw this document, I
0:27:19 didn’t think I didn’t
0:27:19 make that much of it
0:27:21 because it’s been, some
0:27:22 of the points have been
0:27:23 around for a long time.
0:27:24 And it was only when,
0:27:25 you’ll remember, a couple
0:27:26 weeks ago, the president
0:27:28 said, Ukrainians have to
0:27:29 sign this by Thanksgiving,
0:27:32 that suddenly this became
0:27:33 salient and relevant in
0:27:34 new ways.
0:27:36 And then, you know, then
0:27:37 he dropped that idea.
0:27:40 Anyway, so that was a
0:27:40 piece of it.
0:27:43 Recognition, not just
0:27:44 de facto, but de jure,
0:27:45 meaning formally
0:27:47 recognizing that the
0:27:48 Russians now control this
0:27:49 Ukrainian territory, which
0:27:50 also would be very
0:27:51 unpopular in Ukraine.
0:27:53 There was a there was a
0:27:54 line in it about how
0:27:56 about organizing Ukrainian
0:27:58 elections, which, if you
0:27:59 think about it, is a
0:28:00 strange thing to put into
0:28:01 a peace plan.
0:28:03 I mean, the Ukrainians
0:28:04 organizing elections is
0:28:05 something they can do
0:28:07 on their own.
0:28:09 And and what about the
0:28:10 Russians organizing
0:28:11 elections?
0:28:12 The Russians haven’t had
0:28:13 free elections for 20
0:28:13 years.
0:28:15 So, you know, it had that
0:28:16 element in it that the
0:28:17 Russians were somehow
0:28:18 wanted to change the
0:28:20 Ukrainian leadership and
0:28:22 maybe hoped to shape the
0:28:22 elections.
0:28:24 That was the second piece of
0:28:25 the piece of the story.
0:28:28 There was also Ukraine has
0:28:29 to promise never, ever,
0:28:31 ever to join NATO and has
0:28:32 to put that in its
0:28:32 constitution.
0:28:34 Again, pretty controversial.
0:28:35 Don’t know whether that
0:28:35 could be done.
0:28:38 And that Western powers,
0:28:40 European powers, would
0:28:41 promise never to put troops
0:28:42 on Ukrainian soil.
0:28:44 And all this also creates
0:28:46 another problem, which is
0:28:49 if this war would end even
0:28:50 right now, you know, if
0:28:51 there were to be a ceasefire
0:28:53 on current lines, which is
0:28:54 something the Ukrainians have
0:28:56 accepted, in order for the
0:28:58 piece to be real, in order
0:29:00 for it to last longer than
0:29:02 six months or a year or two
0:29:04 years, there has to be some
0:29:06 reason for Ukrainians to
0:29:07 believe that the war isn’t
0:29:08 going to just start up
0:29:10 again next week.
0:29:11 So there has to be a
0:29:12 guarantee.
0:29:13 There have to be troops.
0:29:14 There has to be NATO or
0:29:15 something like NATO.
0:29:17 There has to be something
0:29:19 that will prevent Ukrainians
0:29:20 from fleeing the country
0:29:21 once the borders are
0:29:22 opened.
0:29:23 There has to be something
0:29:25 that gives people the
0:29:26 belief that they can invest
0:29:28 in Ukraine, that they can
0:29:29 rebuild Ukraine.
0:29:30 There has to be something
0:29:31 that makes it a viable
0:29:32 country.
0:29:33 A lot of people often
0:29:35 compare Ukraine to
0:29:36 South Korea, which is
0:29:37 another country that was
0:29:38 divided and part of it was
0:29:39 occupied.
0:29:40 And nevertheless, South
0:29:42 Korea remained a viable
0:29:43 state and it went on to
0:29:44 become a very rich country,
0:29:45 very successful country,
0:29:47 kind of culturally successful
0:29:47 in lots of ways.
0:29:50 And people have said maybe
0:29:51 that’s a model for Ukraine.
0:29:52 And that’s it’s true.
0:29:53 You could you could imagine
0:29:55 that kind of future, except
0:29:57 that South Korea has
0:29:57 American troops.
0:29:59 You know, South Korea has
0:30:01 defense agreements.
0:30:03 South Korea is defensible
0:30:05 and Americans have been
0:30:06 willing to defend it for
0:30:07 many decades, or at least
0:30:08 that’s been the that’s been
0:30:09 the assumption of the
0:30:10 North Koreans.
0:30:12 And you need something like
0:30:13 that in Ukraine to make
0:30:14 it viable.
0:30:16 And it just doesn’t seem
0:30:18 like Witkoff or Jared
0:30:19 Kushner or whoever is doing
0:30:21 this negotiation now has
0:30:23 come up with a version,
0:30:24 something that would that
0:30:26 would that would give the
0:30:27 Ukrainians that sense of
0:30:27 stability.
0:30:29 So this is why people are
0:30:30 talking about it as a kind
0:30:31 of surrender drug.
0:30:32 So we give away land and
0:30:33 in exchange for what?
0:30:36 For, you know, certainty
0:30:37 that the Russians are going
0:30:37 to invade again.
0:30:39 The problem with this
0:30:39 document, then, as I’ve
0:30:40 already said, there are all
0:30:42 these weird clauses about
0:30:44 U.S.-Russian deals that
0:30:45 are going to be done and
0:30:46 money that the U.S.
0:30:46 is supposedly going to
0:30:47 spend in Russia.
0:30:49 And it looks from the
0:30:50 outside like it’s a U.S.-Russia
0:30:53 deal that just isn’t worried
0:30:54 about the future of Ukraine
0:30:55 or the future of Europe
0:30:57 because, you know, a fall
0:30:59 in Ukraine or a or a
0:31:00 dysfunctional Ukraine has
0:31:03 huge impact on security in
0:31:05 Poland and Germany all
0:31:06 across the European
0:31:06 continent.
0:31:08 And it just feels like the
0:31:09 Trump administration
0:31:09 doesn’t care.
0:31:11 So you spend a lot of time
0:31:11 in Europe.
0:31:13 Your husband is a senior
0:31:14 official in the Polish
0:31:14 government.
0:31:16 What is the vibe, for lack
0:31:18 of a better term, in Europe
0:31:20 and especially in the
0:31:21 nation’s border in Ukraine
0:31:23 around the war right now?
0:31:25 Is it stay the course,
0:31:27 this is an unacceptable
0:31:30 cost for Russia and
0:31:31 Russians and eventually
0:31:32 they will retreat?
0:31:35 Or is it we’re facing an
0:31:37 inevitable end which isn’t
0:31:37 a good one?
0:31:39 Like what, I like what
0:31:40 Lincoln said, you can’t
0:31:41 win a war without public
0:31:42 support, you can’t lose
0:31:42 one with it.
0:31:44 Where, what is the state
0:31:45 of public support across
0:31:47 Ukraine, Eastern Europe
0:31:48 and Europe more broadly
0:31:49 as it relates to this war?
0:31:52 So the Ukrainians are
0:31:53 genuinely prepared to
0:31:54 keep fighting.
0:31:56 Their losses are far
0:31:57 lower than the Russian
0:31:58 losses.
0:32:00 They know that they need
0:32:01 outside support.
0:32:04 And most of the nations
0:32:05 of Europe, certainly those
0:32:06 closest to Ukraine,
0:32:08 Scandinavia, Eastern Europe,
0:32:12 Germany as well, have, you
0:32:13 know, are continually
0:32:15 stepping up, offering not
0:32:16 just weapons but money.
0:32:17 Remember, the Ukraine has
0:32:18 its own defense industry.
0:32:19 It makes its own drones
0:32:20 now, including these
0:32:22 long-range drones that
0:32:23 hit, that can hit Russian
0:32:24 targets and Russian
0:32:26 refineries and so on.
0:32:28 And we, I was there in
0:32:30 September and at that
0:32:30 moment there was still a
0:32:31 lot of confidence.
0:32:33 You know, they were pretty
0:32:34 sure they were going to
0:32:35 make it through the winter.
0:32:36 They didn’t expect the
0:32:37 Russians to stop fighting
0:32:38 anytime soon.
0:32:39 I mean, there’s been a
0:32:41 little bit of the, the,
0:32:43 the huge pressure from
0:32:45 Russian airstrikes in the
0:32:45 last month or two, I
0:32:47 think has been, um, this,
0:32:49 and this is on Ukrainian
0:32:49 cities.
0:32:50 This has nothing to do
0:32:51 with the front line.
0:32:52 This is the people, you
0:32:54 know, bombs hitting Kiev,
0:32:56 missiles hitting residential
0:32:57 apartment buildings and so
0:32:57 on.
0:32:59 I think that’s been, that’s
0:33:00 been pretty debilitating.
0:33:02 But they don’t, you know,
0:33:03 you have to remember that
0:33:04 if you’re Ukrainian, you
0:33:05 don’t really see an option.
0:33:06 You know, your option is
0:33:08 you keep fighting the war or
0:33:09 you let the Russian wind and
0:33:11 then they destroy you and
0:33:13 your family and they wreck
0:33:13 your country anyway.
0:33:15 You know, so it’s not
0:33:16 like they have this great
0:33:17 choice, you know, and it’s
0:33:19 not like if the war ends,
0:33:21 then that everything will
0:33:21 be fine.
0:33:23 And I think that for the
0:33:24 most part, I mean, there
0:33:25 are variations inside each
0:33:26 country.
0:33:26 I think most of the
0:33:27 countries around Ukraine
0:33:28 feel the same way.
0:33:30 You know, for Poland, you
0:33:31 know, for the Baltic
0:33:33 states, you know, for
0:33:34 Romania, if Ukraine were
0:33:36 to lose, that wouldn’t
0:33:38 mean, oh, okay, the war’s
0:33:40 over now and we can get on
0:33:40 and do other things.
0:33:43 No, that would mean it
0:33:44 would be more expensive
0:33:45 and they’d have to spend
0:33:47 more money on defense and
0:33:49 there would be more panic
0:33:50 about where the Russians
0:33:52 would go next and there
0:33:53 would be more chaos from
0:33:54 Ukrainian refugees and more
0:33:55 economic disruption.
0:33:57 So the prospect of a
0:33:58 Russian victory doesn’t
0:34:00 make anybody feel like that
0:34:01 would be an improvement.
0:34:02 And so they, too, have
0:34:03 this feeling that there’s
0:34:05 no choice, you know, so
0:34:06 that they will keep
0:34:09 fighting until some
0:34:12 better solution is reached.
0:34:14 And I should say, there’s
0:34:15 another weird thing about
0:34:16 this whole U.S.-Russia
0:34:17 negotiation, which is that
0:34:19 it seems to, they seem to
0:34:20 be acting as if the
0:34:21 Ukrainians and the
0:34:22 Europeans have no agency.
0:34:23 I mean, actually, the
0:34:25 Europeans are now paying
0:34:25 for the war.
0:34:26 You know, there is almost
0:34:27 no U.S.
0:34:28 supplies going in.
0:34:31 They’re paying for the war.
0:34:32 They are supporting
0:34:34 Ukraine economically.
0:34:37 You know, so actually, even
0:34:39 if the U.S. did bow out,
0:34:40 they could keep going.
0:34:43 I mean, and acting like this
0:34:44 negotiation is some kind of
0:34:45 U.S.-Russian agreement that
0:34:47 doesn’t involve the people
0:34:48 who are actually doing the
0:34:49 fighting and who are paying
0:34:50 for the fighting is also
0:34:50 very weird.
0:34:52 I mean, it’s just it’s just
0:34:53 not how you do diplomacy.
0:34:55 It’s not going to get you to
0:34:56 an, you know, it’s not going
0:34:57 to get you to an agreement
0:34:59 that that that makes sense.
0:35:01 And that’s, again, why I
0:35:03 question the motives of the
0:35:04 people who are involved.
0:35:06 Isn’t that sort of the
0:35:07 silver lining here?
0:35:09 And that is the U.S.
0:35:11 is somewhat abdicated,
0:35:13 withdrawn, gone AWOL,
0:35:14 whatever you want to call it.
0:35:17 And my understanding is that
0:35:18 we are still supplying
0:35:19 weapons, but we’re forcing
0:35:21 Europeans to pay for them.
0:35:23 Not in not in huge numbers.
0:35:25 And the weapons that we’re
0:35:26 supplying, the thing that we
0:35:27 have that other people don’t
0:35:28 have is air defense.
0:35:30 And so it’s mostly that.
0:35:31 But most of the most of the
0:35:32 other weapons are coming
0:35:33 from Europe or they’re being
0:35:34 made in Ukraine.
0:35:37 But isn’t back to the notion
0:35:39 of silver lining isn’t to be
0:35:39 fair.
0:35:40 And I feel like Europe is
0:35:43 always every headline on a
0:35:44 on a broad basis about Europe
0:35:45 as a whole is a pretty
0:35:46 negative one about a lack of
0:35:47 growth.
0:35:48 It’s becoming a museum.
0:35:49 There’s a lack of leadership.
0:35:51 Hasn’t Europe really stepped
0:35:53 up here and filled this void
0:35:55 and is, in fact, pushing back?
0:35:56 Yeah.
0:35:59 I mean, not only are they
0:36:00 pushing back and not only
0:36:02 are they have they stepped up
0:36:04 often in ways that aren’t
0:36:05 attracting attention.
0:36:06 You know, there’s a lot of
0:36:07 Danish help for Ukraine and
0:36:08 the regions have been really
0:36:09 important.
0:36:10 There’s a lot of smaller
0:36:11 countries have played an
0:36:12 important role.
0:36:14 But you’ve also had, I think,
0:36:16 especially since the U.S.
0:36:19 election last year, I think
0:36:19 there’s been a real
0:36:22 transformation in European
0:36:23 understanding, you know, so
0:36:26 the, you know, of course,
0:36:28 everybody’s natural instinct
0:36:30 is to say, you know, the war
0:36:31 is far away.
0:36:34 It doesn’t touch us, you
0:36:35 know, and everybody prefers
0:36:37 the status, safe status quo to
0:36:39 involvement in some kind of
0:36:39 unknown project.
0:36:41 And I think you are finally
0:36:42 beginning to see, especially in
0:36:43 Germany, which is important
0:36:44 because it’s the largest
0:36:46 European country, biggest
0:36:46 economy.
0:36:48 you’re seeing a real
0:36:50 transformation, like, okay, we
0:36:51 get it.
0:36:53 The post-1989 era is over.
0:36:56 And the automatic assumption
0:36:59 that the U.S. will see the
0:37:00 world the same way we do and
0:37:02 shares our values is also
0:37:02 over.
0:37:04 And maybe we’ll work with the
0:37:06 Americans again in some way.
0:37:07 I mean, nobody’s writing them
0:37:09 off altogether, but we’re in a
0:37:09 different era.
0:37:11 And you can see that beginning
0:37:13 to affect European politics in a
0:37:14 lot of ways, especially in
0:37:16 Germany, but also in other
0:37:16 places.
0:37:18 And you see investments
0:37:19 going into the defense
0:37:20 industry, new thinking about
0:37:22 strategy, new kinds of
0:37:22 relationships.
0:37:24 I mean, a lot of things are
0:37:24 changing.
0:37:27 It’s not ideal, mostly because
0:37:29 Europe is not a federation.
0:37:30 I mean, it’s funny, for all the
0:37:32 kind of Eurosceptics about, you
0:37:33 know, overbearing Europe and
0:37:36 how it’s supposedly, you know,
0:37:37 they’re creating a single
0:37:37 state.
0:37:39 Actually, it’s not a single
0:37:40 state, and that’s part of the
0:37:41 problem.
0:37:42 You know, so it’s very hard.
0:37:44 It’s still hard for Europe to
0:37:45 act as one.
0:37:46 And that’s why you have this
0:37:48 formula, the coalition of the
0:37:48 willing.
0:37:49 You know, you have this group of
0:37:51 countries who are working
0:37:53 together, the ones who and the
0:37:55 ones who care the most are
0:37:56 involved the most.
0:37:57 And that coalition of the
0:37:59 willing is that is the group
0:38:00 that’s supporting Ukraine.
0:38:02 But no, there’s been a big
0:38:03 change in Europe and European
0:38:05 strategic thinking and in
0:38:07 European understanding of the
0:38:07 world.
0:38:10 And, you know, I think the the big
0:38:12 realization that Europe has
0:38:14 made a huge mistake in allowing
0:38:17 the U.S. to dominate the new
0:38:20 technology, defense technology, but
0:38:22 also the Internet, AI.
0:38:24 I think that’s it’s it’s sunk in.
0:38:26 I mean, everybody gets it that that
0:38:28 was a disastrous European
0:38:29 failure.
0:38:32 Whether there’s time to catch up, I
0:38:33 don’t know.
0:38:35 But you you certainly have now the
0:38:37 formation of new companies and new
0:38:37 thinking.
0:38:39 I mean, I know you’re you’re
0:38:42 interested in that that that’s
0:38:42 begun.
0:38:44 And, you know, it’s interesting to
0:38:46 see the connection between this
0:38:47 geopolitical shift, which is
0:38:49 happening kind of in the ether and
0:38:51 people saying, right, OK, we need
0:38:53 we need our own stuff.
0:38:54 And that’s that’s happening now.
0:38:58 If you have an absence of U.S.
0:39:02 funding, limited, limited cash of
0:39:03 weapons from the U.S.
0:39:04 going to Ukraine and its
0:39:06 Ukrainians fighting on the ground
0:39:08 doing the fighting and combat and
0:39:10 you have Europe is responsible for
0:39:12 the majority of the funding or the
0:39:15 intelligence when what feels like a
0:39:17 peace plan architected by
0:39:21 Russia and the U.S., I mean, is
0:39:24 quite frankly, can Ukraine and
0:39:25 Europe and maybe have done this kind
0:39:27 of say, hold my beer and to a
0:39:30 certain extent, haven’t hasn’t the
0:39:30 U.S.
0:39:32 I mean, OK, we’ve walked away from our
0:39:33 responsibilities, but haven’t we
0:39:35 walked away from all leverage here?
0:39:36 And quite frankly, it doesn’t really
0:39:37 matter what we think.
0:39:39 To some extent, that’s true.
0:39:41 I mean, I think that the I think
0:39:43 people are still hoping the U.S.
0:39:44 will have some influence.
0:39:47 There’s a lot of, you know, maybe,
0:39:50 you know, maybe false hope.
0:39:53 I think there’s, you know, there’s a
0:39:54 fear that a U.S.-Russia
0:39:57 condominium, you know, kind of U.S.-Russia
0:40:00 deal would be bad for everybody and
0:40:01 we’d like to avoid it.
0:40:02 So I didn’t think people want some
0:40:03 kind of huge break with the United
0:40:04 States.
0:40:07 But yeah, I mean, the United States is
0:40:08 not going to be able to dictate what
0:40:10 happens in Ukraine.
0:40:12 And they certainly won’t be able to
0:40:14 dictate a bad solution.
0:40:16 And by bad solution, remember, it’s what
0:40:19 a bad solution means that Ukraine is so
0:40:21 badly weakened that Russia can invade
0:40:22 again.
0:40:23 That’s like that’s the bad solution.
0:40:26 And I don’t think the U.S. is going
0:40:27 to be able to dictate that, even if
0:40:29 that’s what they’re, you know, even if
0:40:30 that’s what they want.
0:40:33 So, no, the U.S. doesn’t, has fewer and
0:40:35 fewer cards and is going to have less and
0:40:37 less influence as time goes on.
0:40:38 I think that’s true.
0:40:41 We’ll be right back.
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0:41:57 What if we’re clinging to a status quo that
0:41:58 no longer exists?
0:42:00 What if public markets no longer reflect
0:42:00 the economy?
0:42:03 What if your portfolio has hundreds of
0:42:05 public holdings, but only one story?
0:42:07 What if growth lives where the index
0:42:08 doesn’t?
0:42:10 What if large-scale projects outlast the
0:42:11 capital intended to fuel them?
0:42:14 What if private markets power over 80% of
0:42:15 U.S. lending?
0:42:18 What if a silver tsunami is no longer
0:42:19 on the horizon, it’s here?
0:42:21 What if there’s a hole in traditional
0:42:22 retirement plans?
0:42:23 What if we’ve constantly underestimated
0:42:25 the impact of change?
0:42:28 What if the financial world doesn’t work
0:42:29 the way you think it does?
0:42:31 These aren’t just hypotheticals.
0:42:33 In a world moving forward, your thinking
0:42:34 can’t sit still.
0:42:37 Reserve your first edition at
0:42:40 Apollo.com slash askwhatif.
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0:44:10 We’re back with more from Anne Applebaum.
0:44:17 You have, I love this, a kleptocracy tracker on your
0:44:18 sub-stack.
0:44:20 What’s the most worrying shift you’re seeing right now?
0:44:22 What is this metric unearthed?
0:44:24 Right.
0:44:26 So the kleptocracy tracker was something I started in,
0:44:28 this is regarding our previous conversation,
0:44:31 I started it a few months ago,
0:44:34 just because I felt like there were all these news stories
0:44:35 that flashed by, you know,
0:44:38 people being pardoned after making donations
0:44:41 to the president’s cryptocurrency fund,
0:44:44 or regulation being lifted,
0:44:46 or regulation not being enforced.
0:44:49 And I just felt like someone should keep track of it somewhere,
0:44:50 and so I started doing it,
0:44:53 and it actually appears on a Johns Hopkins website as well.
0:44:55 The Agora Institute also publishes.
0:44:57 They even created a little graphic,
0:44:59 so you can track it and click on it.
0:45:02 I mean, I don’t know how many people look at it or use it,
0:45:04 but I’m hoping, like, at least historians of the future
0:45:07 will be able to say that somebody was paying attention.
0:45:11 And, you know, there are really two or three important shifts.
0:45:14 I mean, one of them is this one that doesn’t get attention
0:45:15 I just mentioned,
0:45:19 which is it’s not just that the Trump administration
0:45:22 is making money for itself or it’s, you know,
0:45:26 Trump companies are benefiting from deals with the Saudis
0:45:27 or investments in Vietnam.
0:45:30 It’s also that this administration
0:45:35 is either refusing to enforce laws made in the past
0:45:39 or is actively preventing new laws from being made.
0:45:43 So laws designed to prevent, you know,
0:45:46 the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, for example,
0:45:51 or laws designed to regulate the cryptocurrency industry
0:45:53 so that ordinary people wouldn’t be ripped off.
0:45:56 You know, all kinds of regulation that’s designed,
0:45:59 mostly designed to benefit ordinary Americans
0:46:01 and make sure that our system isn’t corrupt
0:46:05 and that people aren’t ripped off by U.S. or foreign companies.
0:46:07 A lot of that is just being taken away.
0:46:09 You know, they’re just not enforcing it.
0:46:10 They don’t care anymore.
0:46:12 And, of course, the bad actors know that.
0:46:15 And so when they see the legal system being taken apart
0:46:18 and they know it’s a free-for-all,
0:46:22 they can just remove money from people’s cryptocurrency wallets,
0:46:25 which happens more often than you think.
0:46:30 You know, or, you know, or they can violate the law
0:46:32 or they can, you know, they can do as they please
0:46:34 because they know that nobody’s watching them.
0:46:37 And I think that’s, and that doesn’t get a lot of attention
0:46:39 because it’s not, you know, it’s not very exciting news
0:46:41 to say that the Trump administration has decided
0:46:43 it won’t enforce X or Y law,
0:46:47 but that’s going to create the long-term problems.
0:46:50 You know, if we create this atmosphere of lawlessness
0:46:54 where, you know, you can buy a pardon from the president
0:46:55 if you’ve broken the law,
0:47:00 you can assume that nobody will enforce regulation
0:47:02 if you decide to break it,
0:47:06 you can rip people off and you won’t pay any price,
0:47:08 you can do all these things with impunity,
0:47:11 I mean, that begins to create a kind of business culture
0:47:14 that is ultimately bad for everyone.
0:47:17 I mean, I guess, you know, bad guys will benefit from it,
0:47:21 but if you’ve ever lived or worked in a really corrupt country,
0:47:26 and I have, you know, I spent a lot of time in Russia
0:47:30 in the 1990s, I spent a lot of time in Ukraine, actually,
0:47:33 in the era before it began to reform itself.
0:47:37 And, you know, I remember that it’s even for,
0:47:39 I mean, maybe particularly for ordinary people,
0:47:41 you know, daily life is different
0:47:43 in a really, really corrupt country.
0:47:48 You know, you don’t make business investments
0:47:49 in a normal way.
0:47:53 You can’t make judgments about how to work
0:47:55 or where to work unless you know, you know,
0:47:56 who’s really in charge
0:47:59 or who’s the person behind each one of these companies.
0:48:05 It distorts ordinary life and ordinary decision-making.
0:48:09 You know, in Russia, universities became very corrupt.
0:48:12 The state services became very corrupt.
0:48:14 I mean, if you wanted a driver’s license
0:48:16 or any kind of license, you could pay for it.
0:48:17 And people knew that.
0:48:20 And then that has a corresponding effect on safety and so on.
0:48:27 So, you know, so you can get into this very ugly downward drift
0:48:29 if you don’t stop it soon.
0:48:32 And as I said, I mean, the main problem in the United States
0:48:33 is just the lack of awareness.
0:48:37 I mean, we’re so used to our system running on autopilot,
0:48:39 you know, assuming that people more or less,
0:48:42 most people obey the law and more or less,
0:48:43 you know, things work.
0:48:47 And once that, once the kind of critical mass is reached
0:48:48 and that’s no longer true,
0:48:51 then it’s going to be very hard to fix.
0:48:54 What impact do you think the war in Ukraine,
0:48:58 let’s assume that in, say, nine, ten months,
0:49:02 it’s loosely in the same place it is now, right?
0:49:05 I wouldn’t describe it at a standstill.
0:49:07 I would describe the war rages on.
0:49:10 What impact do you think it’s going to have
0:49:11 on the midterm elections?
0:49:13 I mean, that’s an interesting point.
0:49:16 I mean, it depends what it looks like.
0:49:21 You know, if it looks like exactly like it does now,
0:49:23 you know, maybe there wouldn’t be an impact.
0:49:30 But if there has been a series of failed Trump peace efforts
0:49:34 that were transparently grifting,
0:49:36 that they weren’t really about peace,
0:49:41 or if there has been some kind of Trump-Russia,
0:49:44 Trump-Putin agreement to start doing business
0:49:46 over the heads of the Ukrainians and the Europeans,
0:49:50 I don’t think Americans will find that attractive.
0:49:51 Maybe I’m wrong.
0:49:52 Maybe you won’t care.
0:49:54 You know, foreign policy is far away.
0:49:57 Ukraine is pretty remote to a lot of people.
0:49:59 But I still think,
0:50:00 and this is something I know
0:50:02 because I’ve seen surveys about this,
0:50:04 Americans still like to think about their country
0:50:05 being a good country.
0:50:07 You know, we like to think of ourselves
0:50:09 being a positive force in the world.
0:50:12 I mean, reasonable people can disagree
0:50:13 about what that means, you know,
0:50:19 and maybe not everyone’s definition of good is the same.
0:50:22 But they don’t like the idea that the main,
0:50:26 you know, in the big issues and in the big arenas,
0:50:29 that the main motivation of the United States of America
0:50:33 America is the wealth of a few people who are close to the president.
0:50:36 I just don’t think Americans are going to like that.
0:50:40 And I don’t know that it would be the main issue in the midterms,
0:50:44 but I think it would be something that would certainly affect people’s perception
0:50:47 of Trump and maybe of the Republican Party.
0:50:55 I don’t know if this is Trump or more specifically the cloud cover for this being the idolatry
0:50:58 or the increasing idolatry of the dollar in the United States,
0:51:03 but it feels as if diplomacy itself is being replaced by private capital networks,
0:51:08 sovereign funds, energy deals, rare earth investments, data centers,
0:51:14 and that the reporting shows that billionaires operating outside of the traditional lines
0:51:18 of diplomacy, whether it’s Witkoff or Kushner on the U.S. side,
0:51:22 Kirill Dmitriev on the Russian side,
0:51:27 hammering out drafts in Miami and shuttling between Mar-a-Lago and Moscow.
0:51:29 A, what do you think of this?
0:51:31 And I think I know the answer to this.
0:51:33 What do you think of this business first diplomacy?
0:51:40 And are there any analogs for when other nations basically diplomacy gets co-opted
0:51:43 by what I’ll call these private capital billionaire networks?
0:51:45 That is literally the Russian.
0:51:47 That is exactly the Russian system.
0:51:51 I mean, the Russian system is that you have companies like Gazprom,
0:51:52 which are nominally private,
0:51:55 but which are really owned by people who also run the country.
0:52:02 And they use, you know, their Russian foreign policy has been
0:52:06 kind of commercial and diplomatic and political,
0:52:08 all mixed up for a long time.
0:52:12 And the purpose of a Gazprom investment in a foreign country
0:52:15 would be partly to make money for the people who run Gazprom,
0:52:21 and partly it would be to achieve some goal, you know, for the Russian state.
0:52:26 And, you know, and particularly in oil and gas, but not only,
0:52:30 you know, Russian companies have been inseparable from the state for a long time.
0:52:36 And it’s created, you know, this ugly system where all of government and all of foreign policy
0:52:40 is really just designed to benefit this kind of ownership class.
0:52:43 And we are really very much at risk of that in America.
0:52:47 That everything, you know, the government isn’t for everybody.
0:52:51 It’s not for to make all of us rich and prosperous.
0:52:55 It’s not to project a set of American values into the world,
0:52:59 which has been true at least some of the time of American foreign policy,
0:53:02 certainly since the Second World War, but you could argue further back than that.
0:53:09 And instead of being this, you know, the kind of outward representation of us and our values
0:53:12 and our, you know, our desire for prosperity and a good life,
0:53:15 it’s actually just designed for those people.
0:53:21 And that’s really how the, you know, I mean, Russia is maybe the most prominent example of this,
0:53:24 but you can look at other autocratic states and say the same thing about them.
0:53:28 And this is the argument of my recent book, Autocracy, Inc.,
0:53:32 is that it’s a mistake to look at the world’s autocrats,
0:53:36 even when they have different ideologies, you know, Russia and China and Iran and North Korea
0:53:41 and Venezuela and Azerbaijan, you know, they have very different ideologies,
0:53:44 but they all often work in some of the same ways.
0:53:49 And one of the ways that, one of the things they have in common is this kleptocratic model,
0:53:54 you know, that the rulers of the country are also the owners of the biggest businesses.
0:54:01 And they use their business relations with one another to make money for themselves.
0:54:08 And they hide money in the same ways they hide money in the Caribbean or in or indeed in Delaware.
0:54:14 And they and they move money around the world anonymously and they share ways of doing that.
0:54:16 And that’s part of what keeps them all in power.
0:54:23 And it looks in, you know, the Trump administration is still not free to behave in that way.
0:54:31 You know, we still live in a democracy and we still have, you know, we still I hope will have congressional investigations and we have courts and so on.
0:54:42 But they they seem to be pushing the country in the tech world and in the crypto world and in other industries who want the U.S.
0:54:50 to develop very much in that direction, a kind of a state where political power and economic power are the same thing.
0:54:58 And, you know, the politicians own the companies and and they act in their interests, not our interests.
0:55:02 Yeah, so I love books about war and movies.
0:55:09 And one of the things I think I’ve sussed out from them is that wars don’t change history.
0:55:10 They sort of accelerate it.
0:55:15 And that is they take existing trends and massively and pull the future forward, if you will.
0:55:21 And countries on the ascent come out big winners and countries, you know, arguably Britain’s finest moment was World War Two.
0:55:24 But it essentially accelerated the decline of the empire, right?
0:55:27 They could no longer hold on to the empire, if you will.
0:55:36 Within Europe, who do you see as if there’s a reshuffling here and a dramatic increase or decrease in power?
0:55:38 And I’ll put forward a thesis.
0:55:40 My sense is this is a really big moment for Poland.
0:55:43 But A, do you agree with that?
0:55:46 And B, who do you see as the biggest winners and losers across Europe?
0:56:05 Yeah, I think Poland sees itself very much as being a country that will play a role in deciding what happens next in Ukraine and will play an increasingly influential role in helping other European countries shape their security decisions.
0:56:10 I mean, there’s some interesting there’s there’s a very close Polish Swedish relationship.
0:56:13 The Poles just bought some submarines from Sweden.
0:56:21 You see this kind of skin is kind of countries around the Baltic becoming working together in lots of ways and actually often including the UK.
0:56:36 So you kind of UK Scandinavia Baltic Poland alliance, which is emerging as a really important alliance of countries just because they share values and they they have a similar view of the world and they work together in new ways.
0:56:37 And you’re seeing that emerging.
0:56:41 I mean, there’s also a Polish German relationship that’s really important.
0:56:49 Actually, the Polish government, I’m not sure they’re still there today, but as we’re speaking, they they were there yesterday.
0:56:53 Several senior Polish ministers, including the prime minister, were all in Germany.
0:57:05 You know, there was a kind of big, you know, multi leveled, multi layered conference was held in which they they they you know, there’s still endless historical issues to work out.
0:57:10 But in which they’re looking at ways of working together economically and in security.
0:57:14 I mean, you you can see those kinds of links developing and becoming more important.
0:57:20 You know, it’s almost as if in the past a lot of stuff went kind of through NATO, like through America.
0:57:23 You know, there was a Polish America German link.
0:57:29 And now everybody’s looking around and saying, wait, you know, is is is going through America or through NATO?
0:57:30 Is that safe?
0:57:42 You know, we need to we need to have much stronger country to country links that don’t depend on, you know, some assumption of of of permanence, permanent American presence in Europe.
0:57:53 So, yeah, I think Poland, Poland is also a country that is doing well economically and it looked at over the span of 30 years has been doing well the whole time.
0:57:57 I mean, it’s it’s it’s caught up to Western Europe.
0:58:00 You know, it’s not exactly it’s not it’s still not as rich as Germany.
0:58:04 But if I recall this, you’d have to I’d have to check.
0:58:08 I think it’s richer than Greece per capita and I think it’s richer than Portugal per capita.
0:58:26 And so if you’re looking at Western European countries, so it’s it’s caught up to Western Europe faster than it has ever before at any time in history and and and and continues to develop and grow in a way that you would not have guessed or imagined a couple of decades ago.
0:58:41 So, yeah, I think I think I think Poland up Germany changing I mean, the UK is the country that worries me the most just because I think the damage done by Brexit is still working its way through the system doesn’t mean there aren’t brilliant people there and great companies and and all that.
0:58:56 But I it’s it’s it’s you know, it’s it’s it’s it’s it’s it lost so many markets and so many opportunities through that one stupid decision that I worry it’s falling further behind.
0:59:03 And I don’t want that because I’m a I lived in London for a long time and I’m a I’m a fan of British culture and many other things.
0:59:06 But that’s that’s what it’s interesting.
0:59:12 There’s often a lot of in the UK now there’s almost a kind of they keep writing articles in the British press about how great Poland is.
0:59:15 And what if Poland catches up to Britain?
0:59:21 I mean, it’s almost there’s a kind of cultural snobbery there, like it can’t possibly be the case that Poles are as rich as we are.
0:59:26 But but there is something happening whereby they are they’re coming.
0:59:32 Certainly, they’re a lot closer in terms of of GDP per capita anyway than they were ever before.
0:59:38 Do you have a sense for having spent time in Russia and I imagine still having contacts there?
0:59:45 How do Russians feel about the state of the war and the relationship with the US and China?
0:59:49 What’s the vibe again?
0:59:51 I hate to use that word in Russia right now with respect to the war.
0:59:53 It’s really hard to say.
0:59:57 So, first of all, my I had a lot of Russian friends at one point and they are all gone.
1:00:00 They have all left Russia there and elsewhere in Europe.
1:00:01 Some are in the US.
1:00:09 And so I don’t have, you know, I don’t have friends inside Russia anymore, at least none, none that I would be able to talk to.
1:00:21 It’s also genuinely impossible to measure something called public opinion in Russia, because this is a country in which to be against the war is illegal.
1:00:26 And people are arrested for saying things that are against the war.
1:00:33 And so that means that if, you know, if you’re conducting an opinion poll and you call someone up and you say, how do you feel about the war?
1:00:35 What are they going to tell you?
1:00:37 They’re going to say, I’m all for it.
1:00:41 You know, it’s a it’s not a it’s not something that you can measure.
1:00:47 And there isn’t also a kind of public sphere in which these things are discussed.
1:00:54 It’s not like there’s a place where people talk about the war and debate it’s whether it’s good or bad in any real way.
1:01:03 So, you know, so what are people’s opinions is it almost doesn’t matter because they won’t tell you what their opinions are because they keep them to themselves.
1:01:09 I mean, I do have there’s a part of the Russian opposition that measures kind of sentiment on the Internet.
1:01:18 They use those kinds of metrics and they say that exhaustion with the war and disappointment with the war are pretty widespread.
1:01:32 And another metric you could look at is the number of Russian elite people in the Russian elite who have fallen out of windows or have succumbed to mysterious accidents in the last couple of years.
1:01:39 And almost all of those are probably people who in some way were seen as insufficiently enthusiastic about the war or about Putin.
1:01:49 So it’s pretty clear there’s, you know, if Putin were to say tomorrow the war is over and now we can move on, I think people would be happy.
1:01:55 They would probably be very happy to end this terrible number of deaths.
1:02:05 I mean, imagine the United States, imagine 20,000 people a month dying or being or being mortally injured and how that would affect us and how we would be.
1:02:06 We wouldn’t do it.
1:02:06 We couldn’t.
1:02:08 Isn’t that unthinkable?
1:02:14 Isn’t that quite frankly, Russia’s core confidence is willing to endure more suffering far more than Europe or the U.S.?
1:02:16 There’s no way we would do this.
1:02:20 No way we would let a million Americans be injured or killed.
1:02:28 We would have found a reason to, you know, get a helicopter on the embassy and get the hell out, you know, a year and a half ago.
1:02:33 And I think we consistently underestimate the Russians’ willingness to subject their citizenry to pain.
1:02:34 Yeah, I think we do.
1:02:36 I don’t think the Ukrainians underestimate them.
1:02:41 I mean, my last month, a lot of recent conversations I’ve had in Ukraine have been with people who say, right, we get it.
1:02:43 The Russians don’t care how many people we kill.
1:02:46 I mean, we’re going to go on killing them because that’s how we keep our country sovereign.
1:02:57 But they shifted strategy some months ago and they began really focusing on hitting Russian oil export and oil refining facilities.
1:03:03 And they do that because they say, OK, they don’t care about people, but they care about money and they care about wealth.
1:03:09 And so we’re going to try to hit them in the places where they’re making the most money.
1:03:12 And actually, just in the last couple of days, they’ve started hitting tankers.
1:03:17 So far, it’s empty tankers, just in case you’re worried about oil spills.
1:03:21 They hit a couple of tankers that were going into a poor oil tankers.
1:03:25 I think they were under a Gambian flag, but we all understand that this is called the Shadow Fleet.
1:03:29 We understand that they’re they’re Russian or they’re carrying they’re going to be carrying Russian oil.
1:03:33 And they also have had this campaign to hit Russian refineries.
1:03:40 And they’ve hit some several dozen of them and they do it repeatedly and they do it almost every night.
1:03:47 I was in a I was in a Ukrainian long range drone factory in September and they showed me these drones.
1:03:48 They’re like little airplanes.
1:03:50 They’re they’re large.
1:03:51 These aren’t little drones.
1:03:52 These are huge drones.
1:03:54 And I said, how many do you make?
1:03:55 And they now make 100 a day.
1:03:57 These are very sophisticated little planes.
1:04:00 And how many do you launch every day?
1:04:01 And they say we launch 100 a day.
1:04:07 They have this permanent now campaign of hitting Russian oil and gas infrastructure all the time.
1:04:11 And this is when they describe it to me, they say this is the real sanctions.
1:04:14 The sanctions that the U.S. and Europe do are now full of holes.
1:04:16 The U.S. isn’t really enforcing them anymore.
1:04:20 It’s too easy for everybody else to buy oil and gas from Russia.
1:04:21 And so we’re going to make it more difficult.
1:04:26 And that’s now really important and very underreported for reasons that I don’t really understand.
1:04:30 But a very underreported part of how Ukraine is fighting as well.
1:04:38 So they they understand that we they, you know, killing people won’t win the war, but maybe doing enough damage to infrastructure could.
1:04:46 And their theory of victory now involves that, you know, we do enough damage that they at least have to stop fighting.
1:04:49 And that’s, you know, but you’re right.
1:04:51 I mean, killing a million people.
1:04:52 So what?
1:04:58 So in our remaining three minutes here and you’ve been generous with your time, I want to move to something much lighter.
1:04:59 You said that you had lived in Russia.
1:05:01 I know you’ve lived in the U.S.
1:05:02 What other nations have you lived in, Anne?
1:05:05 I lived in London.
1:05:09 I lived I lived in Poland.
1:05:11 I live in Poland, actually.
1:05:12 I live I spent about half my time in Poland.
1:05:18 I live in Warsaw and then we have a house in northwest Poland as well in the country.
1:05:19 We renovated all house.
1:05:27 I haven’t really lived anywhere else, but I spent a lot of time flying around and staying in other places.
1:05:29 Spent a lot of time in Ukraine.
1:05:31 So stack rank.
1:05:32 You’re 25.
1:05:38 You’re thinking you have some skills, a lot of geographic mobility.
1:05:45 Stack rank the best, the upside and the downside of living in all those nations for a young professional.
1:05:47 Well, Russia’s out.
1:05:49 You don’t want to be kidnapped.
1:05:59 Honestly, if I had the right kind of skills, and I don’t, but maybe a young person would, I would be trying to work in the Ukrainian drone industry.
1:06:04 It really feels like that could be the fuel that rebuilds that economy.
1:06:05 It will.
1:06:09 I mean, once the fighting stops, they’re now so far ahead of everybody else.
1:06:15 Everybody is going there to learn how they’re doing it, including Americans and including the British and including the Poles, obviously.
1:06:17 I would do that.
1:06:22 You know, so actually the country where I see the most innovation and where things are really exciting is there.
1:06:30 I mean, obviously, you know, you have to be pretty tolerant of loud noises at night and so on.
1:06:32 But I would do that.
1:06:50 And then, you know, yeah, I mean, Poland, Poland, once you overcome whatever cultural differences there are, and there are some, it’s still a country where there are all kinds of wide open spaces.
1:06:54 You know, there are kind of things that haven’t been done and companies that haven’t been created.
1:06:58 And I would think that that would be a great place to live.
1:06:59 I don’t know.
1:07:07 I mean, for me, London is still the greatest city in the world, and I’d be happy to be transplanted there again anytime.
1:07:10 That’s a nice note to end on.
1:07:17 Wouldn’t it be nice if when this war is over that Ukraine becomes a magnet for human capital and potential and optimism and economic growth?
1:07:20 I like the thought of that.
1:07:24 Anne Applebaum is a Pulitzer Prize-winning historian and staff writer at The Atlantic.
1:07:26 She’s also a senior fellow at Johns Hopkins.
1:07:32 Her books include Gulag, A History, Red Famine, Stalin’s War on Ukraine, and her latest Autocracy.
1:07:38 And she joins us from the Atlantic office in Washington, D.C.
1:07:40 Anne, we absolutely love having you on.
1:07:46 We have—our listeners are generally kind of younger and more male.
1:07:55 And I just love that we introduce them to historians and really thoughtful people that they may not come in contact with across their other channels.
1:07:59 So very much appreciate your time and how in demand you must be right now.
1:08:00 Thanks very much, Anne.
1:08:01 Thanks.
1:08:03 It’s always a real pleasure to talk to you.
1:08:03 Thank you.
1:08:08 This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez.
1:08:09 Our assistant producer is Laura Janair.
1:08:11 Drew Burrows is our technical director.
1:08:13 Thank you for listening to the PropG pod from PropG Media.