Is non-consensus investing overrated—or the secret to venture returns?
a16z General Partner Erik Torenberg is joined by Martín Casado (General Partner, a16z) and Leo Polovets (General Partner, Humba Ventures) to unpack the debate that lit up venture Twitter/X: should founders and VCs chase consensus, or run from it?
They explore what “consensus” really means in practice, how market efficiency shapes venture outcomes, why most companies fail from indigestion, not starvation, and the risks founders face when they’re too far outside consensus.
Timecodes:
00:00 Introduction
01:04 Defining Consensus and Market Efficiency
06:30 The Role of Hot Rounds and Market Signals
10:25 Founder Perspective: Risks of Non-Consensus
13:19 Investor Perspective: Indigestion vs. Starvation
18:28 Market Cycles & Sector Hype
23:55 The Evolution of Venture Market Efficiency
26:29 Case Studies & Personal Anecdotes
33:02 Fund Size, Ownership, and the Impact on Strategy
51:40 The Future of Venture: Multi-Stage vs. Seed Funds
Resources:
Find Leo on X: https://x.com/lpolovets
Find Martin on X: https://x.com/martin_casado
Stay Updated:
Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16z
Find a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16z
Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z
Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/
Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
-
How to Build a Successful Company in an Era of Disruption
What happens when a startup becomes a giant—and then has to reinvent itself all over again? In this episode, Martin Casado sits down with Raghu Raghuram (former CEO of VMware) and Jeetu Patel (President and…
-
Dwarkesh and Noah Smith on AGI and the Economy
In this episode, Erik Torenberg is joined in the studio by Dwarkesh Patel and Noah Smith to explore one of the biggest questions in tech: what exactly is artificial general intelligence (AGI), and how close…
-
Balaji on How Tech Truly Wins Media
What really caused the breakdown between tech and media—and what comes next? Erik Torenberg sits down with Balaji Srinivasan (entrepreneur, investor, and author of The Network State) to explore the long-building conflict between Silicon Valley…
-
AI Content and the War for Your Attention
What happens when AI starts generating content for everyone—and no one wants to watch it? In this episode, MSNBC’s Chris Hayes and ad tech veteran Antonio García Martínez join a16z General Partner, Erik Torenberg to…
-
Balaji Srinivasan: How AI Will Change Politics, War, and Money
a16z General Partners Erik Torenberg and Martin Casado sit down with technologist and investor Balaji Srinivasan to explore how the metaphors we use to describe AI—whether as god, swarm, tool, or oracle—reveal as much about…
-
Balaji Srinivasan: How AI Will Change Politics, War, and Money
a16z General Partners Erik Torenberg and Martin Casado sit down with technologist and investor Balaji Srinivasan to explore how the metaphors we use to describe AI—whether as god, swarm, tool, or oracle—reveal as much about…
-
New Media: Podcasts, Politics & the Collapse of Trust
On this episode of The Ben & Marc Show, a16z co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz sit down with Erik Torenberg— General Partner at a16z and founder of the media company Turpentine—to unpack how the…
-
Critical Minerals: Mining for the Industrial Future
It can take more than 15 years to permit and build a new mine in the United States – yet nearly every modern technology we rely on, from smartphones to fighter jets to AI data…
-
The Future of Software Development – Vibe Coding, Prompt Engineering & AI Assistants
Is AI the Fourth Pillar of Infrastructure? Infrastructure doesn’t go away — it layers. And today, AI is emerging as a new foundational layer alongside compute, storage, and networking. Erik Torenberg interviews a16z’s Martin Casado,…
-
Marc Andreessen and Joe Lonsdale on Tariffs and Trade
Today we’re sharing an episode from American Optimist featuring Marc Andreessen in conversation with Joe Lonsdale, recorded live at the inaugural Ronald Reagan Economic Forum. They explore one of the most urgent and complex questions…