Is non-consensus investing overrated—or the secret to venture returns?
a16z General Partner Erik Torenberg is joined by Martín Casado (General Partner, a16z) and Leo Polovets (General Partner, Humba Ventures) to unpack the debate that lit up venture Twitter/X: should founders and VCs chase consensus, or run from it?
They explore what “consensus” really means in practice, how market efficiency shapes venture outcomes, why most companies fail from indigestion, not starvation, and the risks founders face when they’re too far outside consensus.
Timecodes:
00:00 Introduction
01:04 Defining Consensus and Market Efficiency
06:30 The Role of Hot Rounds and Market Signals
10:25 Founder Perspective: Risks of Non-Consensus
13:19 Investor Perspective: Indigestion vs. Starvation
18:28 Market Cycles & Sector Hype
23:55 The Evolution of Venture Market Efficiency
26:29 Case Studies & Personal Anecdotes
33:02 Fund Size, Ownership, and the Impact on Strategy
51:40 The Future of Venture: Multi-Stage vs. Seed Funds
Resources:
Find Leo on X: https://x.com/lpolovets
Find Martin on X: https://x.com/martin_casado
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Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
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