Author: The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish

  • Les Schwab: Why Real Ownership Outperforms Experience, Capital, and Credentials (Outliers)

    AI transcript
    0:00:05 Charlie Munger once asked me how can someone give away 50% of profits and make billions
    0:00:10 more than if he’d kept it all? Before I could answer he told me about Les Schwab,
    0:00:14 a tire shop owner who understood incentives better than almost anyone.
    0:00:17 What Schwab discovered will change how you think about business.
    0:00:28 Welcome to The Knowledge Project. I’m your host, Shane Parrish.
    0:00:33 In a world where knowledge is power, this podcast is your toolkit for mastering the best of what
    0:00:38 other people have already figured out. This episode is for educational and information purposes only.
    0:00:47 What Les Schwab discovered was deceptively simple. Most businesses treat employees like expenses to
    0:00:54 minimize. He treated them like partners to enrich. The math was shocking. He gave away half his profits
    0:00:59 and built a multi-billion dollar empire. Here’s how it worked. When people working in the tire
    0:01:05 centers made a share of the profits, they don’t just change tires. They build relationships with
    0:01:11 customers. When managers own real equity with skin in the game, they run stores like their family’s
    0:01:17 “Future depends on it.” Because it does. Les documented his business lessons in his autobiography,
    0:01:23 Pride in Performance. Keep it going. He wrote it himself on a 40-year-old typewriter because he wanted
    0:01:29 every entrepreneur to understand exactly how he did it. No ghostwriter, no corporate polish,
    0:01:36 just the raw blueprint for turning a leaky shed into an empire. Les proved that the most ruthless business
    0:01:44 strategy is radical generosity. He turned employee loyalty into a competitive moat so deep that Walmart
    0:01:53 couldn’t cross it. This is his story. Before Les Schwab was the name on over 400 tire stores across the
    0:02:01 American Northwest, it was the name of a kid born into nothing. Bend, Oregon, 1917. His parents were desperate
    0:02:07 homesteaders fighting the high desert for a living. His mother, Alice, taught him everything that mattered.
    0:02:13 Then pneumonia killed her when Les was 15. That left him with his father, Bishop. A study in contradiction,
    0:02:19 gentle and hardworking when sober, a maniac when drunk. Les spent his teenage years terrified that his
    0:02:26 father would show up at school drunk and humiliate him. Poor but proud. That’s how Les described himself.
    0:02:32 That pride was armor. A year after his mother died, they found his father’s body outside of a moonshine
    0:02:39 joint. Les was 16. He was now an orphan. His relatives offered to take him in, but he said no.
    0:02:44 Instead, he rented a room in a boarding house for $15 a month, decided he was an adult. The world had
    0:02:50 given him a hard education and an allergy to alcohol. Most kids in his position would have taken the help,
    0:02:57 moved in with family, and stayed safe. Les chose the harder path. While it wasn’t so much choosing the
    0:03:02 harder path consciously, he just didn’t feel he could rely on anyone else. He wanted everything
    0:03:07 on himself. I understand that. Choosing pride over comfort and independence over security
    0:03:12 shows in nearly everything he went about doing. The lesson here is a bit counterintuitive. The worst
    0:03:18 things that happen to you can become an advantage, but only if you refuse to let them define you as a victim.
    0:03:22 Les could have blamed his circumstances. Instead, he used them as fuel.
    0:03:27 Les got his first paper route before his parents died. However, this came with two problems.
    0:03:33 One, he couldn’t ride a bike. Two, he couldn’t afford a bike. So he ran every day for two months,
    0:03:40 running his entire paper route on foot to earn money for a used bicycle. He had to do the job to afford
    0:03:46 the tool required to do the job. One morning, he couldn’t find a customer’s address. Ten miles he ran on
    0:03:51 an empty stomach. He ended up collapsing in the street. Les needed to work. He had no choice.
    0:03:57 He had bills to pay, and he needed a bike. Nobody was going to hand him anything. At the same time,
    0:04:03 he was also washing dishes at a restaurant, earning $3 a week plus meals. Here’s his schedule as a 16 year
    0:04:08 old orphan. Paper route in the morning, school all day, restaurant at night.
    0:04:13 Then he started doing the math. Selling newspaper subscriptions paid 50 cents each. He could make more
    0:04:18 in a few hours selling than a whole week washing dishes. So he quit the restaurant. When he finally
    0:04:23 saved enough for a bike, he got a new route under Mr. Goldenberg. Goldenberg was important because he
    0:04:28 taught him how to sell. Not just deliver newspapers, but actually sell them. Knock on doors, talk to
    0:04:34 people, persuade them. Les doubled the route’s numbers in a few weeks. Goldenberg saw a potential.
    0:04:40 So he had an idea. Start a Sunday route in farm country. It’s an underserved market, but a logistical
    0:04:46 nightmare. Les would need a car. During the Depression, most 16 year olds saved for a baseball
    0:04:54 glove. Les was saving for a 1926 Chevrolet with a box on the back. $75 cash. Sundays, he’d drive the
    0:05:00 rural roads. On weekdays, he was back to the bicycle because gas cost too much. He liked the car, but he
    0:05:06 liked money even more. He signed up 80% of farms in rural Bend. That’s when Les learned the principle that
    0:05:11 would define his business philosophy. People don’t buy your product. They buy your service, your reliability.
    0:05:18 They buy you. By his senior year, Les controlled all nine Oregon Journal routes in Bend. He was making
    0:05:25 $200 a month during the Great Depression. More than his high school principal. Out of 500 students,
    0:05:31 only Les drove a new car. A 1934 Chevrolet bought with cash. His classmates thought it was showing off,
    0:05:37 but they missed the point. The car wasn’t about status. It was proof. Proof that hard work plus smart
    0:05:43 thinking beats any disadvantage. What stands out to me here is the compound effect of small
    0:05:50 advantages. Les turned one paper route into nine through relentless execution. A lot of people treat
    0:05:55 smaller jobs as stepping stones to bigger ones. They’re never fully present in what they’re doing,
    0:06:02 never giving it their all. Les gave 100% of his effort to the work right in front of him all the time,
    0:06:08 and that always led to more work and more opportunity. As Charlie Munger said, the best way to get more work
    0:06:14 is to do the work right in front of you. And do it well. Les met Dorothy Harlan when they were both
    0:06:20 teenagers. They married at 18 and he bought them a small house. They barely had time to unpack. His
    0:06:27 reputation as a newspaper salesman had spread beyond Bend. A paper in Eugene, Oregon offered him a district
    0:06:32 manager job. The newlyweds packed up and hit the road, living out of motels, while Les traveled his
    0:06:38 territory selling subscriptions. They called him a circulation man, someone with an almost supernatural
    0:06:43 ability to boost subscription rates wherever he went. Les negotiated a new job with better pay,
    0:06:49 but he had one question that revealed how he thought about the world. Who’s my boss? The owner said he’d be
    0:06:55 Les’ boss. Simple enough. But within weeks, Les had three different managers giving him contradictory orders,
    0:07:00 so he went straight back to the owner and laid out the problem. The owner immediately straightened out
    0:07:05 the other two managers. The lesson here is if you don’t know who you’re accountable to, you’re
    0:07:10 accountable to everyone, which is the same thing as being accountable to no one. Clear lines of authority
    0:07:17 offer clarity and purpose. He was young and talented and perhaps even a bit cocky, but he had pulled
    0:07:23 himself up from nothing, outworked almost everyone else, and learned through trial by fire. When Les took
    0:07:29 over the paperboy program, he discovered it was hemorrhaging carriers. 20% of carriers quit every month,
    0:07:36 so he got creative. First, he obtained lists of every 7th and 8th grader in local schools and recruited them
    0:07:43 personally. Then he did something radical for the era. He hired girls. They turned out to be more reliable than
    0:07:49 boys. But his real genius was the honor carrier program. Each month, one carrier won based on sales,
    0:07:56 service, and bookkeeping. The prize? $25 in their picture in the paper. This was Les’ first real
    0:08:02 experiment with incentive design, and he was learning how much they matter. One of my favorite mongerisms is
    0:08:07 show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome. If you reward the behavior you want, you’ll get more
    0:08:13 of it. The lesson here connects directly to building any organization. Les understood that unclear reporting
    0:08:20 structures create chaos. Everyone thinks they’re in charge, so no one really is. He also grasps something
    0:08:26 most managers miss. Recognition often matters more than money. That honor carrier program cost $25 a month,
    0:08:32 but transformed retention. These weren’t just newspaper tactics. They were blueprints for building
    0:08:38 a multi-billion dollar business. At 33, Les Schwab was consumed by a single ambition: to own his own
    0:08:44 business, to be in control of his destiny. The newspaper world suddenly felt too small. He joined
    0:08:50 every business club he could find, the Jaycees, Toastmasters, Chamber of Converse, anything that smells like
    0:08:57 business. He was terrified of getting old, of falling into a rut that he’d never escape. And then he saw
    0:09:04 it: a tire shop for sale in Prineville, Oregon. Les knew nothing about tires, but he did know sales, and
    0:09:09 he figured that was what mattered. His brother-in-law offered to partner with him, then got cold feet,
    0:09:14 and backed out. Racked with guilt, he came back and offered to fund Les, but no partnership. Les would
    0:09:22 be on his own. The shop was an okay rubber welder’s franchise: new tires, retreads, flat repairs, hard,
    0:09:29 dirty, manual work. In order to purchase it, he’d need to go all in on himself, and sell his house,
    0:09:34 and borrow against his life insurance, and borrow from his brother-in-law. Les scraped together money
    0:09:39 from every corner of his life. Everything he’d built, everything he’d saved, it went into this one bet.
    0:09:46 On January 1st, 1952, at 34 years old, Les Schwab walked into his tire shop as the new owner.
    0:09:53 It was a leaky 1,400 square foot shed with no running water and no indoor plumbing. It had one employee.
    0:09:57 The annual sales for the year before were $32,000.
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    0:11:14 Sign up for free at Basecamp.com. While Les knew nothing about tires, he knew a lot about selling and
    0:11:20 being able to outwork other people. His first taste of real business, one he owned and controlled,
    0:11:28 was about to begin. On his first day, a customer walked in wanting two six-ply tires mounted. Les got
    0:11:34 right to work. There was just one problem. He had no idea what he was doing. He’d always taken flats to
    0:11:41 a service station, and now he was the service station. Using hand tools on a cold concrete floor,
    0:11:47 he made a complete mess of it until his lone employee arrived and saved him. That first month,
    0:11:54 Les did $2,800 in sales, about what the previous owner had done. But by June, something had shifted.
    0:12:03 Sales hit $10,000 a month. By year’s end, he’d done $150,000 in revenue, five times what the previous
    0:12:09 owner managed. Growth created the best kind of problem. He needed help. Les appointed himself
    0:12:15 outside salesman and told his one employee to hire someone. The new hire was, to put it charitably,
    0:12:21 no good, so he fired him. Then something interesting happened. A man named Frank Kennedy walked in off
    0:12:27 the street asking for work. He and his wife had just moved to Prineville. He was looking around town
    0:12:33 and decided he wanted to work for Les. Les checked his references. Frank took to the work like he was born
    0:12:38 for it. This became a pattern. The right people kept showing up, drawn to something they couldn’t
    0:12:43 quite name but could feel. Les was creating gravitational pull for good, hardworking people.
    0:12:48 Good people can sense when something real is being built. It’s the same energy a lot of people feel at
    0:12:55 startups today. But Les was learning just how rigged the tire business was. The major rubber companies had
    0:13:01 what Les called phony pricing. A truck tire might cost him $100 wholesale but he’d visit competitors
    0:13:08 and find them selling that same tire for $90. He’d call his supplier furious. They’d say for that deal
    0:13:14 we’ll sell it to you for $90 and give you a 5% commission. It was such a shell game. Months of paperwork
    0:13:22 and bookkeeping, floating expenses all to arrive at the same 5% margin every dealer got. The entire system was
    0:13:27 designed to prevent real competition. Les wrote down his philosophy in a fury of anger.
    0:13:33 Never take advantage of a customer. Never take advantage of an employee. But take all the advantage
    0:13:37 you possibly can of the rubber company because they are not being fair and honest.
    0:13:44 The constraints forced him to innovate. Big dealers had fleets of $6,000 service trucks
    0:13:50 visiting commercial accounts. Les had one store and no capital for trucks. So he flipped the model.
    0:13:55 He put an ad in the paper with a simple message. You know the wholesale prices the big guys get.
    0:14:01 Come to my shop and I’ll give them to you directly. No middlemen. His competitors visited customers once
    0:14:06 a week. Les was at his store six days a week. A permanent fixture. Best service, best prices,
    0:14:12 but you had to come to him. It was asymmetric warfare. He had low overhead. It was a simple
    0:14:19 value proposition and it worked. People came in droves. What fascinates me here is how constraints can
    0:14:25 become advantages. Les couldn’t afford to play by industry rules so he invented new ones. He couldn’t
    0:14:31 compete on the suppliers terms so he competed on transparency. He couldn’t go to customers directly
    0:14:37 so he gave them a reason to come to him. The lesson isn’t that you need resources to win. It’s that you
    0:14:43 need to see the game differently than everyone else is playing it. Les was ready to expand. The nearby town
    0:14:50 of Redmond needed a tire store. He bought land, put up a building, invested $10,000 total. Now he had two
    0:14:56 stores. Both okay rubber franchises. But there was a problem. He’d bitten off more than he could chew.
    0:15:03 Running between the two stores was killing him. So Les made his star employee Frank Kennedy a win-win deal
    0:15:09 that would become the foundation of his empire. Here’s how it worked. Frank would manage the Redmond
    0:15:16 store. He’d pay Les $200 monthly rent and take $400 salary. After that, they’d split all profits 50-50.
    0:15:23 But here’s the genius part. Frank had to leave his share of the profits in the business until his stake
    0:15:29 equaled Les’ initial investment. That was real skin in the game. Sit with that for a second.
    0:15:34 Frank had zero upfront risk. Les put up all the capital. But every day Frank ran the store well,
    0:15:41 he owned more of it. The better he performed, the faster he’d build equity. It was his store in every
    0:15:48 way that mattered, except Les kept half the upside. Les even added another twist. If Frank wanted a raise,
    0:15:53 he could give himself one. But the store’s rent would increase by the same amount, giving Les a raise too.
    0:16:00 A self-balancing system. People thought Les was crazy. Why give away half your profits?
    0:16:07 Les saw it differently. If I share half the profits, I still have half. And if Frank makes more money,
    0:16:11 he’ll work harder to make the store more successful. And if the store is more successful,
    0:16:17 my half is worth more than the whole used to be. It was pure math. But it was also more than math.
    0:16:21 It was an understanding of human nature. Les remembered running his paper route on foot
    0:16:26 because he couldn’t afford a bike. He remembered how the honor carrier program had motivated those
    0:16:32 kids. He knew what it felt like to want something to be yours. The Redmond store turned profitable
    0:16:38 immediately. Frank ran it like he owned it because increasingly, he did. The arrangement with Frank
    0:16:45 became the template. Every Les Schwab store would follow this model. Every manager would be a partner,
    0:16:50 not an employee. This is one of the most elegant business solutions I’ve seen.
    0:16:54 Les solved multiple problems at once. He couldn’t manage multiple locations himself,
    0:17:00 so he needed to retain talent. And he needed managers to think long-term. The solution aligned
    0:17:07 everyone’s interests perfectly. Frank couldn’t get rich without making Les rich. Les couldn’t expand
    0:17:14 without making Frank rich. Les stumbled onto his next innovation by accident. His Prineville store
    0:17:19 was bursting. Retreading equipment and tires cluttered every square inch of the sales floor.
    0:17:25 They were working in what amounted to a filthy garage. By now he had two stores. Les saw the problem
    0:17:31 differently. Why should customers shop in a dirty garage? Why not separate the dirty work from the selling?
    0:17:36 He bought a small carpenter shop nearby and moved all the retreading equipment there. Suddenly,
    0:17:42 his stores looked like actual stores. Places where people might want to shop, not just get their tires
    0:17:47 fixed. With retreading centralized, he could exploit the economies of scale. One set of equipment,
    0:17:51 serving multiple stores. The savings would compound as he grew.
    0:17:59 Time for store number three. Les set his sights on Bend, his old hometown. But there was a problem.
    0:18:06 Bend already had an OK Rubber Welders franchise. This should have stopped him. Franchise territories are
    0:18:12 kind of sacred. But Les had learned there’s always a deal if you’re creative enough. He pitched the OK
    0:18:19 district manager something unprecedented. What if Bend had two OK stores and he’d pay royalties to the existing
    0:18:26 operator and run a second location? The manager, probably thinking Les was crazy, agree. And it was
    0:18:31 messy from the start. The two stores managers couldn’t get along. Les’s managers quit, leaving him with an
    0:18:38 empty building and a lease. At this point, most people would have admitted it was a mistake and moved on.
    0:18:44 Les, however, was not most people. He’d been planning to start his own brand anyway. He’d already been
    0:18:51 advertising as Les Schwab OK Rubber Welders to get his name out there. Now seemed like a perfect time to
    0:18:57 cut loose. When he told OK Rubber Welders he was going independent, they said he couldn’t do that.
    0:19:04 Let’s not argue, Les replied. I just wanted to be open about it. He needed a name. Tire Center was too
    0:19:09 generic. Tire Service Center wasn’t much better. He was thinking bigger than one store. He settled on
    0:19:16 Les Schwab Tire Center, with his name initially in smaller print. Then something interesting happened.
    0:19:22 Customers started asking for Les Schwab Tires, not Goodyear, not Firestone, Les Schwab. What strikes me
    0:19:29 here is how Les bounced every time he hit a wall. No space? Centralized operations. Franchise territory
    0:19:34 taken? Create a new model. Manager quits? Perfect time to go independent. But the real insight was
    0:19:40 discovering that customers trusted him more than they trusted the tire brands. In a commodity business,
    0:19:47 the seller’s reputation matters a lot. Store number four came from an unusual source. Gordon Pryday
    0:19:52 worked at the Prineville store and every morning he’d walk in with the same greeting. When are we going to
    0:19:57 open in Madras? Not good morning, not house business. When are we going to open in Madras?
    0:20:03 Madras was another small Oregon town. Gordon saw opportunity there and wouldn’t let it go. Problem
    0:20:10 was, Madras already had an OK Rubber franchise. Les figured if he was already fighting OK Rubber in
    0:20:15 Bend, he might as well make it a proper war. He drove to Madras and found a bankrupt fruit stand for sale.
    0:20:22 $10,000 got him the building and the land next door. The fruit stand had a small apartment in the back.
    0:20:27 Gordon moved his family in immediately. Let that sink in. This man believed so strongly in the
    0:20:32 opportunity that he moved his wife and kids to the back of a converted fruit stand. The family kitchen
    0:20:37 table sat steps away from the tire racks. When customers left for the day, Gordon was still there.
    0:20:43 When they arrived in the morning, he was already there. This wasn’t a job, it was a mission, and it existed
    0:20:49 because of the profit sharing deal. Gordon knew that every tire he sold was building his own wealth.
    0:20:56 Les and Gordon ran the numbers. They’d break even at $2,000 a month, make a small profit at $25, and do
    0:21:03 pretty well at $3,000. In year one, they broke even exactly. In year two, $800 profit, split 50/50.
    0:21:08 And here’s the punchline. Another tire dealer opened in Madras around the same time.
    0:21:15 Shiny new building, proper equipment, all the advantages that Gordon lacked. That competitor
    0:21:20 went out of business in two years. This story captures something profound about ownership
    0:21:25 versus employment. The competitor had every advantage except the one that mattered, skin in the game.
    0:21:32 Gordon Pryday wasn’t just managing a store, he was building his family’s future. That’s what real
    0:21:36 incentive alignment creates. People who live in the back of a fruit stand because they’re not working
    0:21:41 for you, they’re working with you. They’re not building your dream, they’re building their dream
    0:21:48 with you. But Les had a problem. He was running OK rubber welder stores in Prineville and Redmond,
    0:21:54 but Les Schwab tire centers in Bend and Madras. Two different brands, one owner. It was confusing for
    0:22:01 customers and open rebellion against his franchise agreement. The corporate brass at OK had seen
    0:22:06 enough. Five executives flew from headquarters to confront Les in a Redmond motel room.
    0:22:10 “We’ve come for your answer,” they said. “Get out of Bend and Madras or else.”
    0:22:16 Les had been losing sleep over this moment for weeks. He paced the floor at night,
    0:22:22 terrified they’d seize his equipment and destroy him. The timing couldn’t be worse. His largest customer
    0:22:29 was behind on payments that equaled his entire net worth. If that customer went bankrupt and OK seized
    0:22:35 his equipment, he’d lose everything. But sitting in that motel room facing five corporate executives,
    0:22:41 something snapped. “I don’t want any more harassment from you people,” said Les. “If you have anything more to
    0:22:49 say, say it in court.” And then he walked out. It was pure bluff. Les had no money for lawyers. No case
    0:22:56 to make. For months afterwards, he lived in terror that the lawsuit would end everything. The lawsuit
    0:23:04 never came. Years later, Les figured out why. OK had 1100 franchises nationwide. If they sued him and lost,
    0:23:10 it could set a precedent that would unravel their entire system. They couldn’t risk it. By standing up to
    0:23:15 them, he’d accidentally found their weakness. They needed the franchise system more than they needed
    0:23:22 to crush one rebellious dealer in Oregon. Now, Les moved fast. He repainted all four stores with Les
    0:23:30 Schwab Tire Center, prominently displayed. One brand, one identity, one vision. The franchise rebellion
    0:23:37 was over. Les was free. This moment reveals something crucial about negotiations and power. Les had no leverage
    0:23:44 except for one thing: the cost of being wrong. They could crush him, but if they failed, they create a
    0:23:50 precedent that threatened their entire business model. Sometimes your only power is making the consequences
    0:23:56 of attacking you too expensive for your opponent to risk. Les won not through strength, but by understanding
    0:24:03 what the other side feared losing. He saw the whole board, not just his own pieces. During the chaos of
    0:24:08 growth and franchise battles, Les would escape with Dorothy on long drives. These weren’t romantic
    0:24:13 getaways. They were strategy sessions. “I’m going to build a small warehouse,” he told
    0:24:18 her one evening on the Columbia River Highway. “Move my bookkeeper out there, buy the tires myself,
    0:24:24 do the advertising, price the tires, handle the books, maybe build six, seven, or eight stores someday.”
    0:24:30 He could see it all mapped out. A central operation supporting a network of profit-sharing stores.
    0:24:37 Each manager thinking like an owner because they were an owner. He’d need scale to buy tires at volume
    0:24:43 discounts. He knew advertising. He knew promotion. Most importantly, he knew how to align incentives.
    0:24:52 Six, seven, maybe eight stores. That seemed wildly ambitious in 1956. He would go on to build 410 before he died.
    0:24:59 By the time Les had seven stores, a new problem emerged. The stores were growing. What started as
    0:25:06 one manager and a helper had become teams of four, five, six people. Les wanted to extend profit-sharing
    0:25:12 deeper into each store. His solution was elegant. Managers would appoint their best person as assistant
    0:25:20 manager. That person would get 10% of profits. 5% from Les, 5% from the manager. The split would go from
    0:25:27 50-50 to 45-45-10. The assistant manager would build equity in the store. When a new location opened,
    0:25:33 they’d become the manager there, taking their accumulated profits with them. It was a self-replicating system.
    0:25:39 Every store would create its own successor. The managers hated it. They didn’t want to lose the 5%.
    0:25:45 This threatened Les’ entire growth model. Without succession planning, expansion would stall.
    0:25:51 So Les wrote one of the most remarkable memos in business history. He said this,
    0:25:56 “If a bright, young, ambitious man joins our company and wants to make our company his career,
    0:26:02 does he do it because he likes Norm or Gordy or Bob? Do you men think that some little fairy sent
    0:26:09 you this man just to help you build your bonus? This man is going to work for low pay year after year,
    0:26:16 just so you can build your profit share into a nice, fat nest egg? No, I don’t think so.
    0:26:21 This man didn’t join the company because of the store manager’s future. This man joined the company
    0:26:28 because of his future with Les Schwab Tire Centers, not in you personally. If you men block this man,
    0:26:34 you are being selfish. Two of the seven managers appointed assistants, and then Les dropped the
    0:26:42 hammer. Effective immediately, all manager shares dropped from 50 to 45%. If they appointed an assistant,
    0:26:50 that person got 10%. If they didn’t, the company kept the extra 5%. Suddenly, every store had an assistant
    0:26:57 manager. And the growth engine roared back to life. This is leadership at its finest. Les understood
    0:27:02 something that his managers didn’t. Their wealth came from the system he created, not just their
    0:27:07 individual contributions. When they hoarded opportunity, they violated the very principle that
    0:27:13 made them successful. His memo didn’t just shame them, it reminded them of their moral obligation to
    0:27:18 pay forward what they’d received. But when moral arguments failed, he used economics.
    0:27:25 The beauty is that once forced to share, the managers discovered what Les already knew. Developing
    0:27:32 your successor makes you more valuable, not less. Coming up, the moment Les discovered he wasn’t really
    0:27:39 in the tire business at all. That single insight let him charge premium prices in a commodity market
    0:27:46 and made his employees run, literally run, to serve customers. If you think you know what business
    0:27:52 you’re in, the next part will make you question everything.
    0:27:58 Les had solved his incentive problem. Now he turned to something bigger, reimagining what a tire store
    0:28:04 could be. It was 1956. On a weekend drive, Les found himself studying grocery stores.
    0:28:10 Customers wandered the aisles, they compared prices, they made informed decisions. Then he’d pass a tire
    0:28:14 shop, same cramped waiting room, same dealer disappearing into the back to fetch whatever
    0:28:21 tire he felt like selling. What if Les wondered aloud, we displayed tires like Safeway displayed groceries?
    0:28:28 Think about how radical this was. Tires were ugly industrial products. Heavy, dirty, technical. Every
    0:28:32 dealer hid them in the back of the warehouse. Why would customers want to see them?
    0:28:38 But Les thought differently. People buy what they can see and what they can understand.
    0:28:44 He started converting his stores into supermarket tire centers. Massive showrooms, hundreds of tires on
    0:28:51 display, organized by type and size. Clear pricing, educational materials. Let the customer browse,
    0:28:57 let them compare, let them touch, let them choose. When he opened the next store, Les centered a company
    0:29:03 memo that read like a declaration of war. This I vow, we’re going to have a supermarket tire store in
    0:29:09 every town that we have a Les Schwab tire center. I hate to use threats. It’s against my policy entirely,
    0:29:15 but you can visualize what is going to happen in your town if you don’t run a supermarket tire store,
    0:29:21 because I’m going to have it regardless of cost. I sincerely hope I have made myself very clear. I
    0:29:27 love you, but I love a supermarket tire store even more. But displaying tires wasn’t enough. They were
    0:29:33 ugly. They had to be spotless. They had to be beautiful. Les would visit stores constantly looking for
    0:29:40 the ideal place a person would want to buy tires. The winners were always the cleanest. Tires waxed and
    0:29:46 gleaming everything in its place. He became obsessed with the details of tire presentation. He found the
    0:29:52 perfect spray paint and lacquer to make tires look their best. He sent another memo to everyone telling
    0:29:58 every manager exactly what brand to buy and where to get it. This is 40 years before Steve Jobs would
    0:30:03 obsess over every detail of the Apple store. Les Schwab was applying the same thinking
    0:30:09 to truck tires. The results were immediate. Customers spent more time browsing, they asked better
    0:30:15 questions, and they bought more tires. More importantly, they trusted what they could see.
    0:30:22 In the 1960s, Les made a decision that would have seemed insane to other dealers. He took down every tire
    0:30:28 manufacturer sign from his stores. His sign maker asked what design you wanted for the new signs. Les looked
    0:30:34 around and pointed to a standard oil station. Put Les Schwab where they have standard and put tires where
    0:30:42 they have the Chevron logo. Done. With that simple instruction, Les became the first major tire dealer
    0:30:49 in America to build his business around his own name instead of a manufacturer’s brand. No more Goodyear
    0:30:56 signs. No more Firestone banners. Just Les Schwab. He was betting everything on one idea. People would buy tires,
    0:31:02 not because of who made them, but because of who sold them. We don’t have the blimp flying around
    0:31:06 like Goodyear, he’d later joke, but we’ve got something better. The Les Schwab sign. And in the
    0:31:12 Northwest, that’s more powerful than the blimp. The timing was perfect. Foreign tire manufacturers were
    0:31:18 flooding into America. The market was oversupplied. For the first time since World War II, the big American
    0:31:25 tire companies had lost their stranglehold on pricing. Les embraced the chaos. I was so disgusted with the tire
    0:31:30 suppliers that I was willing to do most anything to help my company survive, he wrote. I decided to
    0:31:36 take down all rubber company signs, to go straight independent, to buy tires like Safeway buys groceries,
    0:31:43 to buy the best possible tire, good quality, and at the lowest possible price. Most dealers at the time
    0:31:48 stayed loyal to one manufacturer. They’d get a good deal on one brand, but that’s all they could offer.
    0:31:55 Les bought from everyone. Japanese manufacturers, European imports, anyone who made quality tires at the right
    0:32:01 price. His scale gave him leverage. Like Costco, decades later, he bought in massive quantities and
    0:32:06 passed the savings on to customers. Here’s how it worked. Les always had one line of tires priced to
    0:32:12 match his lowest competitor. But then he’d have three, four, or five other options at different price
    0:32:18 points, all displayed beautifully in his spotless showroom. Customers had no reason to shop anywhere else.
    0:32:24 He had the best prices, he had the best selection, and he had the best service. The tire manufacturers had
    0:32:30 lost control of their own market. This move reveals a profound insight about branding and power. Schwab
    0:32:36 understood that in a commodity business, the relationship with the customer matters more than the product.
    0:32:43 By removing manufacturer signs, he wasn’t just changing decor. He was asserting ownership of the customer
    0:32:50 relationship. The tire companies became his suppliers, not his partners. It’s the same playbook that Amazon
    0:32:56 would later use with book publishers or that Walmart used with consumer goods companies. Control the
    0:33:04 relationship and you control the business. By 1965, Les had 15 stores scattered across Oregon and Idaho.
    0:33:10 He faced the classic scaling problem. How do you maintain quality when you can’t visit every store
    0:33:16 every week? His solution was elegant. He promoted his best store managers to become zone managers. But
    0:33:22 here’s the twist. They kept running their own stores while overseeing others nearby. No extra salary,
    0:33:27 no corner office, just results-based pay. Think about those incentives for a second. If your zone thrived,
    0:33:31 everyone made money. If it struggled, your own store suffered because you were spending time away from
    0:33:37 it fixing other people’s problems. It was kind of self-regulating brilliance. Bad zone managers would
    0:33:43 naturally step back to focus on their own struggling stores. Good ones would lift every store around them
    0:33:47 and share in the profits. Zone meetings became the company’s heartbeat. This is where they picked
    0:33:54 managers for new stores, debated expansion, shared what worked. Les ran them like board meetings. Every
    0:33:59 zone manager had skin in the game. They’d all started changing tires and worked their way up through the
    0:34:04 profit-sharing system. When a management position opened, it was like Shark Tank before Shark Tank
    0:34:11 existed. Assistant managers would pitch for their shot at running a store. Les and the zone managers would
    0:34:17 interrogate them. How much money do you have in your profit-sharing account? What’s your plan? Why should we bet on you?
    0:34:22 The person with the most skin in the game usually won, but not always. But it was never the smoothest
    0:34:29 talker. This structure solved multiple problems at once. It created management depth without bureaucracy.
    0:34:34 It aligned regional interests with store-level execution. Most importantly, it ensured that
    0:34:38 decision-makers had lived the business from the ground up. When you’re picking someone to run a new
    0:34:45 store, who better to judge than people who’ve already succeeded at it? Les didn’t need consultants or
    0:34:51 personality tests. He had a system that selected for proven operators with their own money on the line.
    0:34:57 By 1970, Les had codified his profit-sharing into what he called the 100 story. For every $100 of store
    0:35:04 profit, $25 went to the manager, $10 to the assistant manager, $27 to the employee bonus and retirement fund.
    0:35:10 The company kept 38%. But here’s the clever part. The company didn’t take its share until the manager
    0:35:16 had enough equity to start drawing theirs. That 38% stayed in the store as working capital,
    0:35:22 building the manager’s stake. This created wealthy managers through ownership, not salary. By the mid-1970s,
    0:35:27 some of the store managers were making over $100,000 annually, more than most corporate executives in
    0:35:38 the 1970s. The growth was relentless. Seven stores in 1956, 35 by 1970, over 60 by 75. But the real
    0:35:44 brilliance wasn’t the growth rate. It was that each new store made the whole system stronger. The central
    0:35:51 warehouse bought in ever larger quantities, crushing competitors on price. Every store created assistant
    0:35:57 managers, hungry to run their own locations. And most remarkably, the expansion was self-funded. Managers left
    0:36:02 their profits in as working capital. When they moved up to run a new store, they brought their accumulated
    0:36:09 wealth as startup capital. Les had built a machine that financed its own growth. This is one of the most elegant
    0:36:15 business models I’ve seen. He solved the eternal problem of expansion capital by making his managers into bankers.
    0:36:20 They funded growth not because they had to, but because they wanted to. Their equity was
    0:36:24 building while it sat there. Meanwhile, the company got interest-free loans from the very people most
    0:36:32 motivated to make those stores succeed. Around 1970, Les made another counterintuitive move. Instead of just
    0:36:37 building new stores, he started recruiting his competitors. The pitch was simple. Keep your independence,
    0:36:44 but join Les Schwab network. Get access to our buying power, our advertising, our system. Buy tires at the
    0:36:50 same prices we pay. Think about the elegance of this. Every dealer who joined made Les’s buying power
    0:36:56 stronger, which made his prices better, which made more dealers want to join. It was a virtuous circle.
    0:37:02 JJ Stamper had been a Goodyear dealer for 40 years, barely scraping by. After joining Les’s network,
    0:37:08 he built four stores and hit six million in annual sales. Within five years, 60 independent dealers had
    0:37:14 joined. They added 50 million in annual sales without Les investing a dollar in real estate or inventory.
    0:37:20 He turned competitors into allies. His gravity alone was enough. This is network effects before
    0:37:26 anyone called them that. Les understood that in a commodity business, scale is everything. Every
    0:37:31 dealer who joined made it more attractive for the next dealer to join. Sometimes the best way to beat
    0:37:37 competitors is to actually make them partners. As Les’ empire scattered across multiple states,
    0:37:42 he faced a new problem. How do you maintain personal relationships when managers are hundreds of miles
    0:37:49 apart? His solution raised eyebrows. He bought airplanes, first a Cessna, then a Piper,
    0:37:54 then eventually a Citation. Les initially resisted, but he realized planes were tools that collapse
    0:38:00 geography. He could visit five stores a day, attend zone meetings, look managers in the eye instead of
    0:38:06 managing through reports. The planes make all of our stores just one hour away, he said. For a
    0:38:13 company built on relationships, that proximity was everything. By 1975, Les Schwab had over 60
    0:38:20 company stores plus 60 member dealers. Revenue exceeded 130 million. The investment banker started
    0:38:27 circling. Private equity firms made offers. The numbers were astronomical, enough to make Les one of the
    0:38:32 wealthiest men in America. But he turned them all down. What would I do with the money? He’d ask. What
    0:38:37 good is money beyond a certain point? But it went deeper than that. Les knew exactly what would happen
    0:38:42 if he sold. Some MBA would look at his profit sharing system and ask the obvious question: Why do store
    0:38:49 managers make more than executives? Les had an answer they’d never understand. That’s exactly why we’re so
    0:38:54 successful. We think the most important people in the company are the people on the firing line, he wrote.
    0:39:00 The ones who sell, do the service work, and take care of the customer. Most American corporations have
    0:39:07 fat salaries for the top people and treat the people at the end of the line as peons. I guess that is why,
    0:39:13 if you’re on the ball, you can beat them. Any buyer would try to fix his inverted hierarchy. They’d cut
    0:39:18 profit sharing to boost margins. They’d pay executives more than store managers. And they’d destroy
    0:39:24 everything that made Les Schwab work. The results validated his approach. In an industry notorious for
    0:39:31 low margins and high turnover, Les Schwab stores outperformed competitors by 30 to 50 percent. Manager
    0:39:38 turnover was virtually zero. Customer loyalty was legendary. Most telling was by 1975, Les Schwab
    0:39:44 dominated the Pacific Northwest without acquiring a single competitor. Every store was built from
    0:39:51 scratch or recruited as a member dealer. They’d won through performance alone, not financial engineering.
    0:39:57 Les understood something that money can’t buy. The real money is in the people and the system he created.
    0:40:01 Selling would have made him rich, but it would have destroyed thousands of careers built on his
    0:40:08 profit sharing model. He chose legacy over liquidity. In an era of quick flips and financial engineering,
    0:40:14 Les proved that sometimes the most valuable asset you can build is the one you’ll never sell. The irony is,
    0:40:19 by refusing to cash out, he built something worth far more than any buyer was offering.
    0:40:25 By 1975, Les was approaching 60. His model was proven. But in business,
    0:40:31 there’s no such thing as the status quo. The giants were coming. Big box retailers looked at tires and
    0:40:38 saw opportunity. It seemed perfect for their model. It’s a simple commodity product with a huge market.
    0:40:44 It’s ripe for customer disruption through bigger scale. They had deep pockets. They had massive stores and
    0:40:50 supply chains that had already crushed local hardware stores and grocers. The big retailers bought tires by
    0:40:57 the train load and sold them cheap. But they treated tires like toilet paper, stacked them high, priced them low,
    0:41:03 and watched them fly off the shelves. They had no service departments worth mentioning. Most failed miserably.
    0:41:09 Fred Meyer was typical. They had opened 16 tire departments across their stores and within two years,
    0:41:14 they were hemorrhaging money. So they approached Les with a proposition. Would he take over six of their
    0:41:19 freestanding tire centers? Les took over five of them. And within a year, he had tripled the business Fred
    0:41:26 Meyer had been doing. Here’s what’s remarkable. He was selling the exact same tires at higher prices.
    0:41:32 It’s worth asking, how is this possible? Les understood something the big retailers missed.
    0:41:37 He said this, “People don’t buy tires on price. They buy from someone they trust and from someone who will
    0:41:43 smile and from someone who will give service and stand behind what they sell.” Fred Meyer thought they
    0:41:49 were in the tire business. But Les knew he was in the trust business. When your car starts shaking at 70
    0:41:55 miles an hour, you don’t want the lowest bidder. You want someone who will make it right. Big retailers had
    0:42:01 every structural advantage. Scale, capital, real estate, supply chain, sophistication. But they were
    0:42:07 optimizing for the wrong thing. They thought customers wanted cheap tires when what they really wanted was
    0:42:13 to never worry about their tires. Les could charge premium prices because he wasn’t selling rubber.
    0:42:20 He was selling peace of mind. The early 1980s tested whether the Les Schwab tire empire could survive
    0:42:25 without Les Schwab. First, company president Don Miller suffered a heart attack. Les, who’d been
    0:42:31 stepping back from daily operations, returned to run the company while Miller recovered. Then on August 1st,
    0:42:39 1983, Les himself suffered a massive heart attack, open heart surgery, a week in intensive care, and a long
    0:42:45 uncertain recovery. While Les was still hospitalized, Don Miller dropped a bombshell at the annual managers
    0:42:52 meeting. He was retiring. The timing stunned everyone. The company faced a double crisis. Its founder
    0:42:59 incapacitated while its president was departing. From this chaos emerged Phil Wick, who’d started at the
    0:43:04 bottom and worked his way up like everyone else at Les Schwab. He’d become president proving the
    0:43:10 succession system worked even under the worst circumstances. By 1985, Les had recovered and the
    0:43:16 company was positioned perfectly for the industry upheaval ahead. The tire manufacturing giants were
    0:43:22 consolidating or failing. Foreign competitors like Toyo were flooding in. While other dealers picked sides,
    0:43:28 Les bought from everyone. He’d built a massive warehouse in Prineville, the town where it all started.
    0:43:35 325,000 square feet of pure buying power. This let him offer customers the best tire for their specific
    0:43:42 needs, regardless of who manufactured it. People kept asking Les why he didn’t create his own Les Schwab
    0:43:47 tire. He had the scale. He had the reputation. He had the capital. He had the know-how. It seemed like
    0:43:53 the obvious move. And Les had thought about it deeply and decided against it. His reasoning was brilliant.
    0:43:58 If we have a problem with the tire, we drop the tire, pick up another one, and continue to swim.
    0:44:03 If he made Les Schwab tires and they had a defect, he couldn’t just drop the line. He’d have to defend
    0:44:09 it, recall it, manage the crisis. His people would have conflicts selling “Do I sell the Les Schwab tire,
    0:44:14 or do I sell the Goodyear tire?” instead of “What is best for the customer?” By staying independent,
    0:44:20 he could always pivot to whatever served customers best. It’s tempting to put your name on everything
    0:44:26 once you’re successful. But Les understood, by not making tires, he could always offer customers the
    0:44:33 best option without defending a bad product. In the long run, what is best for the customer is best for the
    0:44:39 company? The 1990s brought new threats. Costco started selling tires. Online retailers emerged.
    0:44:45 Industry experts predicted Les Schwab’s high-touch model was doomed. It was too expensive, too slow,
    0:44:52 too old-fashioned for the digital age. The opposite happened, though. As competitors automated everything
    0:44:58 and removed human interaction, the Les Schwab experience became more valuable, not less. Customers who could
    0:45:03 buy tires online still drove to the Les Schwab store. They wanted someone to run out and greet them. They
    0:45:08 wanted experts who knew their name. They wanted the peace of mind that comes from dealing with a person
    0:45:14 they knew and trusted. The company’s decades of investing in people had created a moat that no
    0:45:21 amount of technology could cross. The numbers by the late 1990s were staggering. Revenue approached $700
    0:45:30 million. The employee trust fund hit $332 million, averaging over $65,000 per employee. Store managers
    0:45:37 were earning over $200,000 annually, proving Les’ belief that the people closest to the customer should
    0:45:42 make the most money. At 80 years old, Les began stepping back. He’d built something unprecedented: a
    0:45:48 billion-dollar company where thousands of employees had become wealthy alongside him. From a leaky shed in
    0:45:54 Prineville to over 400 stores across seven states, all maintaining the culture he’d established
    0:46:01 in the 1950s. By 2000, annual sales crossed $1 billion. But the real measure of success
    0:46:07 wasn’t in the revenue. It was in the thousands of families across the West who’d built middle-class
    0:46:14 lives and genuine wealth through the Les Schwab model. I can imagine Les saying something along the
    0:46:19 lines of if people knew how profitable it was to pay your people well, everyone would do it.
    0:46:25 What fascinates me here is how weakness became strength. Everyone thought personal service would
    0:46:31 become obsolete in the digital age. Instead, it became more valuable precisely because it was rare.
    0:46:38 While competitors raced to eliminate employees, Les doubled down on his people-first bottle. Les Schwab
    0:46:44 gave away 50 percent of his profits and became richer than if he’d kept 100 percent. By the time
    0:46:50 he died, Les Schwab Tire Centers was distributing over half of all profits directly to employees.
    0:46:58 The employees’ trust held $332 million. Store managers routinely made $200,000 a year and many
    0:47:06 retired as millionaires. Meanwhile, Les paid himself $32,000 a year. Charlie Munger studied Les Schwab’s success
    0:47:10 and reached a simple conclusion. He must have harnessed the superpower of incentives.
    0:47:15 He must have a very clever incentive structure, driving his people, and he must be pretty good at
    0:47:21 advertising, which he is. He’s an artist. But here’s what I think Munger was getting at:
    0:47:26 Les didn’t just design a clever incentive system. He designed a system that acknowledged how humans
    0:47:34 actually work. Give people real ownership, not promises. Share profits monthly, not maybe someday. Promote from
    0:47:41 within, not from above. When Les died in 2007 at age 89, Oregon’s governor ordered flags flown at
    0:47:47 half-staff. Think about that: a tire shop owner received the same honor as a fallen soldier or
    0:47:54 president. 13 years later, when the family finally sold, the market value of Les Schwab’s creation was
    0:48:00 over $3 billion. Not proprietary technology, not for executive products, for a culture that turned tire
    0:48:07 changers into millionaires. The tools haven’t changed since 1952. Trust, incentives, and the radical belief
    0:48:12 that ordinary people can build extraordinary things when you align their interests with yours.
    0:48:17 Les Schwab asked himself a simple question: What would happen if I treated my employees like partners
    0:48:22 instead of expenses? $3 billion later, we have our answer.
    0:48:29 Wow, what a force. Les was incredible. He’s somebody we can learn a lot from. I haven’t picked up this
    0:48:35 book in probably a decade or so, and just flipping through it, I was reminded of all my old highlights,
    0:48:39 which are available for members and our learning community. You can read through what I highlighted,
    0:48:45 but reading all my old highlights, it was interesting to me how some of the things that I didn’t highlight,
    0:48:49 I highlighted this time and some of the things that I highlighted last time didn’t make as much sense,
    0:48:55 but there’s so much business wisdom in this book and there’s no nonsense approach. I really loved reading
    0:49:00 this again. I want to mention a few of the quotes that I highlighted that didn’t make it into the episode
    0:49:06 that I loved. So one on open books, he said, “We have no secrets in our company. We have no secrets as
    0:49:12 to where you stand on your profit share arrangements as we put out a P&L every month showing you exactly
    0:49:18 where you stand.” On frontline workers, he said this, “Too many corporations think the brains are in the
    0:49:23 main office and all the bonus money is paid to four or five high people. All the others are peons and
    0:49:28 just numbers if you have a union that really makes them a number. The truth is that success is at the
    0:49:34 other end. The office merely keeps their records and tells them how they are doing. The real job for office
    0:49:39 people is to provide motivation, to create programs that make it possible for them to be successful,
    0:49:45 to be fair, to be open, to have a really open communication, to have no secrets, and to support
    0:49:51 them.” This, he went on to say, is an unusual way to run a business, but more businesses would be
    0:49:56 successful if they gave more attention to the people on the front lines. Part of that quote made it into
    0:50:01 the episode, but I wanted you to get the full context of that one. So on going public, he said this,
    0:50:06 “When we had 12 or 13 stores, I thought a lot about going public, partly to raise money,
    0:50:11 and partly to expand faster. I had the chance to buy a small public company that was nearly
    0:50:16 bankrupt. It would have been an easy way to go public. I’m so glad I resisted the urge to have
    0:50:21 our stock on the market. I don’t want a few investors around the country club asking about
    0:50:26 our business and questioning some of our decisions.” I thought that was really interesting. That reminded
    0:50:31 me a lot of John Bragg and what he said in the episode and the Jimmy Pattison outliers episode.
    0:50:35 And Jimmy Pattison sort of had the reverse experience where he was public. His shares
    0:50:40 got up to $42 and then down to as low as 85 cents. And he ended up buying them out.
    0:50:45 on what less tells managers when they’re coming in. The big thing that I think is going to hit
    0:50:50 you right between the eyes is that we expect you to run the store. You are on your own and you will sink
    0:50:58 or swim according to your abilities. It takes quite a man to be a store manager. I’ve always said because
    0:51:03 you must have great manager abilities, sales manager abilities, service manager abilities, and above all,
    0:51:09 just plain old management ability. And finally, on not being complacent. He said this, “We have great
    0:51:16 people and they do a great job, but we must constantly remind ourselves as to just why we are so successful
    0:51:22 and what we must do to continue to be successful. Because if we become complacent, it’s all over with.”
    0:51:28 All right, let’s talk about some of the lessons you can take away from Les Schwab. I have
    0:51:32 countless lessons from the book, but I’m going to talk about eight here that I want to highlight for you.
    0:51:39 And the first is win-win. The math of generosity. Les discovered that splitting profits 50-50 with store managers
    0:51:45 didn’t cut his wealth in half. It multiplied it. His reasoning was pure math. If I share half the profits,
    0:51:52 I still have half. And if Frank makes more money, he’ll work harder to make the store more successful.
    0:51:58 And if the store is more successful, my half is worth more than my whole used to be. He gave away billions
    0:52:01 to make billions more. You get rich by making others rich.
    0:52:07 Number two, skin in the game. Make them owners, not employees. Les didn’t just share profits. He made
    0:52:14 managers earn their ownership with real money. The deal. Manage the store, take your salary,
    0:52:20 and get 50% of profits. But there’s a catch. You can’t withdraw your profit share until it equals the
    0:52:26 initial investment. The result? Zero manager turnover. Don’t pay people to care. Make them actual owners
    0:52:30 with skin in the game and real money on the line. And they can’t help but care.
    0:52:38 3. Think in decades. Act today. Investment bankers offered less astronomical sums to buy his company,
    0:52:43 enough to make him one of America’s wealthiest men overnight. He refused every offer. What would I do
    0:52:48 with the money, he said? The real answer? Selling would destroy the profit sharing culture that
    0:52:54 made thousands of employees wealthy. New owners would fix his inverted pay structure. Les thought in
    0:53:01 decades while acting with daily urgency. By 2020, that patience had paid off. The company was sold for
    0:53:08 $3 billion. Preserving the culture even after his death. Build something worth keeping, not just worth
    0:53:15 selling. 4. All in or all out? At 34, Les sold his house, borrowed against his life insurance, and scraped
    0:53:23 together $11,000 to buy a failing tire shop with no running water and no plumbing. He never had changed
    0:53:29 a tire. His competitors had decades of experience. But Les had something they didn’t. No backup plan.
    0:53:35 That total commitment forced him to figure it out. One year later, he quintupled revenue. Half measures
    0:53:42 guarantee half results. 5. High agency. Everything is your job. Les bought his first tire shop,
    0:53:47 having never fixed a flat tire in his life. Day one, customer needs tires mounted. Les fumbles with his
    0:53:53 hands on the cold floor, making a complete mess of the situation until his employee arrives. He
    0:53:59 insisted on being taught, so the situation never repeated. Within a year, sales jumped from $32,150
    0:54:06 He treated every problem as his problem, whether he knew the solution or not. Sometimes the only
    0:54:13 qualification you need is the willingness to figure it out. 6. Reputation works while you sleep. In the
    0:54:19 1960s, Les made a decision that seemed insane. He removed all tire manufacturer signs from his store.
    0:54:25 Back then, tire shops were essentially Goodyear or Firestone franchises. The signs meant manufacturer
    0:54:32 support and co-op advertising money. Les gave all that up to put his own name on every store. He bet the
    0:54:39 customers would buy based on who sold the tires, not who made them. Within a decade, Les Schwab became
    0:54:44 more powerful than any manufacturer brand in the Northwest. Your name is either making you money or
    0:54:51 costing you money. There’s no neutral. 7. Go positive, go first. Les instituted free flat
    0:54:56 tire repairs for anyone, whether you’re a customer or not. Competitors called them crazy. Why would you
    0:55:02 fix flats for people who bought tires elsewhere? But Les understood reciprocity. Humans are biologically
    0:55:09 wired to return favors, even unearned ones. Those free repairs created a loop. Strangers who owed him
    0:55:15 nothing suddenly owed him something. Most businesses wait for the transaction before the service. Consistently
    0:55:22 going positive and going first is one of the most powerful forces in the universe. 8. Dark hours.
    0:55:27 Every morning before dawn, teenage Les ran his paper route. Not biked, but ran. For two months,
    0:55:33 he sprinted through dark streets on foot saving for a bicycle. His classmates were asleep. He was earning.
    0:55:40 By senior year, Les owned all nine routes in town. He’d wake up at 4, deliver hundreds of newspapers,
    0:55:47 then show up to school. Your competition is asleep from 4 to 7am. That’s three free hours to build your lead.
    0:55:54 Thanks for listening and learning with us. And be sure to sign up for my free weekly newsletter at
    0:56:00 fs.blog/newsletter. I hope you enjoyed my reflections at the end of this episode. That’s normally reserved
    0:56:06 for members. But with this outlier series, I wanted to make them available to everyone. The Farnham Street
    0:56:12 website is where you can get more info on our membership program, which includes access to episode
    0:56:19 transcripts, reflections for all episodes, my updated repository featuring highlights from the books used in
    0:56:26 this series and more. Plus, be sure to follow myself and Farnham Street on x Instagram and LinkedIn. If you like
    0:56:30 what we’re doing here, leaving a rating and review would mean the world. And if you really like us,
    0:56:41 sharing with a friend is the best way to grow this special series. Until next time.

    They weren’t employees. They were partners. Les Schwab didn’t build a company. He built a culture.

    This episode reveals how one small-town tire dealer scaled to $3 billion by turning customers into evangelists and employees into owners. Somewhere between changing his first flat tire and opening his 410th Les Schwab Tire Center, Les discovered something profound: his people weren’t just working for him, they were working with him. They weren’t building his dream, they were building their own. This episode is a case study on how strategy, incentives, and trust create massive advantages that resources can’t buy. When investment bankers offered Schwab billions to sell his empire, he refused after asking himself just one question: “What would I do with the money?”

    Les Schwab understood something most never learn: the real wealth isn’t in what you keep. 

    Approximate timestamps: Subject to variation due to dynamically inserted ads:  
    (01:49) Roots   
    (11:21) In Business  
    (27:50) Building an Empire  
    (40:18) Maturation and Legacy  
    (48:21) Reflections from Les Schwab  
    (51:22) Lessons from Les Schwab  

    This episode is for informational purposes only and is based on Pride in Performance: Keep It Going by Les Schwab

    Check out highlights from this book in our repository, and find key lessons from Schwab here: https://www.fs.blog/knowledge-project-podcast/outliers-les-schwab

    Upgrade—If you want to hear my thoughts and reflections at the end of all episodes, join our membership: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and get your own private feed.

    Newsletter—The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠

    Follow Shane on X at: ⁠⁠⁠x.com/ShaneAParrish

    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

  • #236 Harley Finkelstein: Why You Must Requalify for Your Role—Every Year

    What does it mean to live—and lead—with intention? 

    Shane sits down with his friend and Shopify President Harley Finkelstein to explore what happens when you treat every role in your life—father, husband, leader—as something you have to requalify for, every single year. Harley shares why stepping down as COO was the hardest decision of his life, how a simple family motto is shaping his daughters, and what it really takes to become a world-class storyteller. They also unpack AI’s real advantage, the calendar system that keeps him honest, and the quiet force of standards that never get lowered. 

    It’s a candid look at ambition, identity, and the challenge of holding yourself to a higher standard—everywhere it counts. 

    Approximate timestamps: Subject to variation due to dynamically inserted ads:
    (00:02:10) Living With Unreasonably High Standards
    (00:03:40) Generational Trauma and Family Relationships
    (00:07:52) Growing Up With Adverse Circumstances
    (00:14:42) Prioritizing In Life And Becoming World Class
    (00:24:45) Requalifying For Your Job
    (00:30:05) Mindset for Professional Growth and Success
    (00:31:33) How To Find A Great Business Partner
    (00:32:57) Switching From COO Of Shopify To President/Chief Storyteller
    (00:40:34) How Storytelling Impacts Shopify
    (00:42:00) How To Get Better At Storytelling
    (00:46:13) Shopify And How Commerce Has Evolved
    (00:49:27) Forced Entrepreneurship Vs Passion Based Entrepreneurship
    (00:51:34) Mentorship
    (00:59:41) Overcoming Failure And Rejection
    (01:02:46) Out Caring Is More Important Than IQ, EQ, Raw Talent
    (01:06:07) Parenting And Teaching A Hardwork Ethic
    (01:11:23) Teaching Resilience

    Thanks to our sponsor for supporting this episode:

    SHOPIFY: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at shopify.com/knowledgeproject

    Newsletter – The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

    Upgrade — If you want to hear my thoughts and reflections at the end of the episode, join our membership: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and get your own private feed.

    Watch on YouTube: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@tkppodcast

  • #235 Outliers: Jimmy Pattison — Building a $16B Empire Without Connections, Capital, or Credentials

    At 96 years old, Jimmy Pattison still runs his $16 billion empire personally. 

    He’s built it over 63 years without outside capital or a college degree. He owns 100% of car dealerships, billboards, radio stations—even Ripley’s Believe It or Not—with a philosophy of: “No partners, no shareholders, no relatives.”  This episode reveals the principles behind one of North America’s great private empires: how to build and compound a reputation, why the best deals happen in silence, and what a Japanese bicycle taught him about operational excellence. You’ll learn the hidden advantage of selling “souvenir editions” instead of newspapers, how he turned a ghost radio station into a ratings leader overnight, and why he once fired the entire bottom 10% of his staff—then took them out for steak. 

    Most people play for approval. Pattison plays for permanence through reputation, relentless clarity, and never mistaking flash for fundamentals. 

    This episode is for informational purposes only and is based on Jimmy: An Autobiography by Jim Pattison and Paul Grescoe. 

    Check out highlights from these books in our repository, and find key lessons from Pattison here—⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://fs.blog/knowledge-project-podcast/outliers-jimmy-pattison/

    Approximate timestamps: Subject to variation due to dynamically inserted ads:

    (00:00) How a Teen Sold Yesterday’s News
    (01:10) Jimmy Pattison’s Billion-Dollar Playbook
    (03:24) The Debt That Built Character
    (05:41) Part 1: Foundations – The Boy Who Sold Seeds Door-To-Door
    (06:52) When Victory Becomes a Liability
    (08:46) The University of Used Cars
    (10:02) The Art of the Close
    (13:30) When Business Becomes Theater
    (15:22) The Price of Independence
    (16:36) The Pattern
    (17:44) Part 2: Starting to Build – Back to Zero
    (18:09) The Price of Independence
    (20:08) Bleeding Money
    (21:11) The Secret Weapon
    (22:11) The Main Street Disaster
    (23:09) Dead Air to Hot Air
    (24:33) The Ghost Station
    (25:40) The Conglomerate Dream
    (27:03) The Target
    (28:24) Cold Calling Wall Street
    (29:35) The Silent Hunt
    (30:49) The Takeover
    (31:36) Part 3: Neonex International – Perfect Timing, Wrong Direction
    (32:09) The Magic Money Machine
    (34:17) The Toast Order
    (35:06) The Forbidden Target
    (36:15) The Christmas Surprise
    (37:27) The Bluff
    (38:07) The Unraveling
    (39:07) The Education
    (40:27) Part 4: The Jim Pattison Group of Companies – Returning the Paintings
    (40:49) The Corporate Confession
    (42:08) The New Operating System
    (44:01) The Dinner That Changed Everything
    (46:23) The Great Escape
    (47:31) The Boy and the Bicycle
    (49:07) The Quality Revolution
    (51:14) Part 5: The Empire Builder – Still at the Wheel
    (51:47) The New Playbook
    (54:17) The Grocery Gambit
    (55:13) The Media Monopoly
    (55:52) The Numbers Game
    (57:20) The Ultimate Lesson
    (59:15) Reflections and Lessons

    Upgrade—If you want to hear my thoughts and reflections at the end of all episodes, join our membership: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and get your own private feed.

    Newsletter—The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠

    Follow Shane on X at: ⁠⁠x.com/ShaneAParrish

  • #234 Indra Nooyi: Lessons from the Top of PepsiCo—and the Cost of Getting There

    AI transcript
    0:00:04 Growing up in an environment where India had just come out of 350 years of British rule,
    0:00:07 you sit there going, I have to pull myself up.
    0:00:11 You had a conversation once with Steve Jobs where he told you not to be too nice.
    0:00:16 How did that candid conversation influence how you ran PepsiCo?
    0:00:19 I think the biggest lesson I took away was he said,
    0:00:21 what I was focused on was micro-understanding.
    0:00:26 Because if you don’t understand the business down to where the rubber meets the road,
    0:00:31 you can make decisions at the top which are not implementable.
    0:00:34 The business was a multi-multi-billion dollar business.
    0:00:38 And remember, if you don’t earn your place, the people below you are willing to push you out.
    0:00:43 So people don’t realize that as you get more senior in an organization, it’s up or out.
    0:00:53 Welcome to the Knowledge Project podcast. I’m your host, Shane Parrish.
    0:00:58 In a world where knowledge is power, this podcast is your toolkit for mastering the best of what
    0:01:04 others have already figured out. My guest this week is Indra Nooyi, the former chairman and CEO of
    0:01:09 PepsiCo, who led a global transformation at the company as one of the most remarkable leaders of
    0:01:14 a generation. What makes Indra fascinating isn’t just her accomplishments, it’s how she navigated
    0:01:20 her colliding worlds. An immigrant who became more American than most Americans. A dutiful daughter
    0:01:25 who became a corporate revolutionary. A mother who reached the pinnacle of power but kept her
    0:01:30 daughter’s please-come-home note tucked in her drawer as a reminder of what she was missing.
    0:01:34 This is a conversation rich with clarity, resilience, and ambition.
    0:01:40 Indra shares the surprising story of how she almost quit PepsiCo, the unforgettable advice she received
    0:01:45 from Steve Jobs, and the moment her mother told her to leave the crown in the garage after being
    0:01:51 named president of the company. We talk about how to give feedback that gets heard, why great leaders
    0:01:56 zoom in before they zoom out, and how real strategy always has to be implementable. If you’re trying to
    0:02:04 lead better at work or at home, this episode is packed with timeless lessons. It’s time to listen and learn.
    0:02:13 I want to start with this wonderful story about you and your husband. When you first met, you went to a
    0:02:19 movie, and you watched Silver Streak at the Sandberg Theater, and then you went out to dinner after, and you
    0:02:27 decided to get married. But you’re still not sure who asked who, who proposed to who. I want the real
    0:02:33 story here. That is the story. Sometimes I tell him, why did you rush this proposal? I wanted to be dated
    0:02:38 and wooed and dined and wine. And he said, I didn’t propose to you, you proposed to me. So I said, why did
    0:02:44 you accept if I proposed to you? He says, I don’t know. It was just destined to be that way. And I think
    0:02:51 over summer, even though we didn’t spend much time together one on one, there must have been some spark.
    0:02:58 And he’s just a very good guy, to be honest. And I guess he thought I was a pretty good person, too. And so it was
    0:03:05 just a meeting of the minds, value system, families, every which way. And I said yes, without being wined and
    0:03:11 dined. And he said yes, without, you know, dating me and getting to know me. And the rest is history. And 45 years
    0:03:15 later, we can look back and say, huh, who proposed to whom again?
    0:03:22 That’s such an incredible story. I love these stories of couples that just, it clicks right away.
    0:03:27 You might not know each other, as well as some other people who get married. And it just works out. My aunt
    0:03:33 and uncle have never actually dated another person. They started dating at 13, and they are still happily
    0:03:35 married today. It’s incredible.
    0:03:40 Maybe that’s the reason we’re happily married, because we started to date each other after we got
    0:03:45 married. And we started to discover each other after we got married. So we had that long process
    0:03:50 of discovery. And in spite of that, we kind of liked each other, loved each other.
    0:03:57 That’s incredible. I want to go back to your childhood in India. Are there memories or lessons
    0:04:00 that stand out from your mom that you still carry with you today?
    0:04:05 It’s mom, dad, grandfather, the whole extended family. It’s not just the mother.
    0:04:15 And I think that it was a focus on excellence and doing well. It was sort of beaten to us.
    0:04:20 If you’re going to do something, do it well. If you can’t get good grades, then, you know,
    0:04:25 what’s your value to society? What are you going to do for society? So it was always this thing about
    0:04:32 push yourself. Don’t sit idle. Satan has work for idle hands. If you can read in every spare minute,
    0:04:37 do it. So that’s the environment we grew up in. And we couldn’t go complain to somebody else because
    0:04:42 our entire community was that way. And so you sit there going, who am I going to complain to?
    0:04:46 If I complain to an aunt or an uncle, they’ll say, oh, I’m doing the same with my kids.
    0:04:52 So we grew up in an environment where everybody was being pushed. And we were being pushed because
    0:04:58 we were growing up in an environment where India had just come out of 350 years of British rule.
    0:05:03 And it was trying to find its place in society. And we were looking at other countries and saying,
    0:05:08 wow, you know, there could be growth. There can be innovation. The economy could get a whole lot
    0:05:15 better. And so everybody needs to pull themselves up to contribute to the country in order to make the
    0:05:22 country better. So that was the goal to push young people. And so you sit there going, I have to pull
    0:05:28 myself up. The family pushed you, but you have to pull yourself up. Everything in my childhood was
    0:05:35 about that. It was about working hard, being a team member at home, doing chores, not having much
    0:05:45 money at all, but lots of discipline, freedom within the frame. That’s what I remember. But work hard,
    0:05:52 study hard, and be viewed as a reliable person. If you promise something, deliver it. Unless you’re dead,
    0:05:53 you will deliver it.
    0:05:57 When you came over, like growing up in that environment, when you came over and you went to
    0:06:03 Yale, were you like, this is, these people don’t work as hard as I do. Like they don’t,
    0:06:07 they don’t come from this environment where, you know, you’re struggling to break out and you’re,
    0:06:12 you’re sort of driven by your parents and everything around you is sort of pushing you forward. And
    0:06:16 there’s no option for failure. You have to succeed and you have to keep going.
    0:06:22 I actually came here, I was in awe of everybody I met. And I’ll tell you why, because there we worked
    0:06:29 hard because the simple things in life we didn’t have. You know, if you wanted to iron your uniform,
    0:06:36 half the time there was no power. So you had ions with hot coal inside them. You know, you have spray
    0:06:41 starch here. You know, we had to, when I was in a Catholic school, the uniform had to be starched and
    0:06:46 you had to show up looking very crisp. Here you just buy spray starch and you spray it and you iron it on.
    0:06:51 There you had to make your own starch at home. And sometimes it’d be clumps that would, you know,
    0:06:57 land on the uniform because you didn’t really, you know, cook out the clumps and the starch that you
    0:07:03 made. And so we spent a lot of time doing things that people here didn’t have to think about. You
    0:07:07 just went to the store and bought it or you had electricity, you had water. So you took all that
    0:07:15 for granted. We had to spend a lot of time on those so-called unnecessary survival tasks growing up.
    0:07:20 So you come here and you watch everybody here going, wow, they’re so brilliant. They think
    0:07:27 differently. They break boundaries. They’re irreverent, but they’re reverent also in their
    0:07:33 own ways. How does one become like that? You know, I was more in awe of them rather than they don’t work
    0:07:41 so hard. It’s just that the working hard part was on stuff that was made easy in the United States.
    0:07:43 The price of development.
    0:07:48 I never thought of it that way. Thank you for sharing that. There was a moment before you came
    0:07:55 over, you had just got a big promotion and I think it was Norman. And you went to talk to him and you said,
    0:08:00 should I take this? Because you were about to take over 60% of the factory or go to Yale.
    0:08:06 And walk me through that moment and what went into that decision to, because that’s a huge promotion.
    0:08:08 That’s incredible success.
    0:08:12 No question about it. I would have been incredibly young to run such a big part of the company.
    0:08:18 Would have been successful. Would have been in an environment that I was quite familiar with.
    0:08:23 My expenses would have been nil because I would have had to live at home. No issues with anything.
    0:08:30 But I had always dreamed about the United States because all my friends had come here and loved
    0:08:36 American music, culture, innovation, entrepreneurship. Everything I read about just fascinated me.
    0:08:39 And at that time, I’m really talking about the 70s.
    0:08:47 America was a seat of culture and just brilliance. And as a young person growing up, your dream is to
    0:08:53 be part of this environment. So I went to Norman and said, hey, Norman, look, this job you’ve offered me
    0:09:01 is fantastic. One side of me says, take it and grow in this culture and environment. The other side of me
    0:09:08 says, be a rebel. Go and be part of this incredibly amazing country and culture and environment called the
    0:09:16 United States. And I knew one was risky and one was safe. And something in me wanted to take that risky
    0:09:22 bet also. But Norman was clear. He said, look, if I were you, I would take the risky bet. Even though
    0:09:27 it would be a loss for me and the company, if I were you, I’d take the risky bet because you may not get
    0:09:33 this chance again. And even though I knew I was going to take on loan liabilities, I could fail. I was an
    0:09:39 alien country that I didn’t have too much family in because I’d grown up with family. I decided to take
    0:09:39 the plunge.
    0:09:46 Has that changed how you, when you were like the CEO of Pepsi, did that change how you developed people
    0:09:50 where the best thing for Pepsi might’ve been for them to stay, but the best thing for them might’ve
    0:09:51 been for them to leave?
    0:09:56 Well, at some point when people come to you and say, I’ve got this great opportunity,
    0:10:01 you sit there going, would they be better off leaving? And in case I want them back,
    0:10:07 I can always go back and get them. Or are they better off staying at PepsiCo? Sometimes selfishly,
    0:10:11 I look at this and say, I’m actually better off if this person goes and gets this completely
    0:10:17 different experience because I can bring them back. So you always look at this in a nice selfish way.
    0:10:23 I don’t mean in a negative selfish way, in a nice selfish way. Somebody went to a tech company,
    0:10:28 go there. I’m sure the allure of PepsiCo would make you want to come back if I wanted you back.
    0:10:33 And now I have somebody who’s got the PepsiCo pedigree, has got a tech background and now can
    0:10:39 come back and contribute to the company in profound ways or partner with me. So I’d look at it that way.
    0:10:45 But if I felt that a person did not have much runway in PepsiCo, I would also tell them very honestly that
    0:10:51 they might be viewed as a critical professional in PepsiCo. You know, they could have a career,
    0:10:57 not a fantastic career. And if they got a better opportunity somewhere, I would provide the
    0:11:02 reference and I would help them find something. I think if you really care about people developing,
    0:11:04 you’ve got to think that way.
    0:11:10 I love that. After Yale, you went into the consulting business. What did you love about that?
    0:11:15 It was a sink or swim place. I went to the Boston Consulting Group in Chicago. We had just opened up
    0:11:21 and I’d never been in consulting before. And so this was a new experience. First of all,
    0:11:27 the caliber of people is just fantastic. Each one is pushing the other. You’re operating at the
    0:11:33 highest level of a corporation. And in BCG, you worked on two different assignments at the same time.
    0:11:38 So you had to understand two industries, the value drivers, two non-competitive industries.
    0:11:44 What are the value drivers? How do you think about adding value to the client in the assignment you’re
    0:11:51 working on? And so it challenged me in profound ways. First to learn industries, learn the economics
    0:11:57 of the industry, the value drivers. Think beyond the industry to see what insights you can bring
    0:12:04 to the industry and learn about dealing with leaders at very high positions, which I’d never done before
    0:12:09 in the United States. I mean, I’d looked at these leaders as, my God, so-and-so is the CEO. And now
    0:12:16 I’m sitting in the same room with the CEO. How do I behave? How do I, you know, articulate my point
    0:12:22 of view without sounding like I’m a know-it-all? There’s so much I had to learn. In my six and a half
    0:12:29 years at BCG, I think I grew 10 or 15 years. It was tough. It was a tough learning curve, but man,
    0:12:33 I would never trade that experience for anything in the world. And a very competitive environment.
    0:12:35 Incredibly competitive.
    0:12:40 I think a lot about systems, how to build them, optimize them, and make them more efficient.
    0:12:46 But efficiency isn’t just about productivity. It’s also about security. You wouldn’t leave your
    0:12:51 front door unlocked, but most people leave their online activity wide open for anyone to see,
    0:12:56 whether it’s advertisers tracking you, your internet provider throttling your speed,
    0:13:02 or hackers looking for weak points. That’s why I use NordVPN. NordVPN protects everything I do online.
    0:13:07 It encrypts my internet traffic so no one, not even my ISP, can see what I’m browsing,
    0:13:12 shopping for, or working on. And because it’s the fastest VPN in the world,
    0:13:18 I don’t have to trade security for speed. Whether I’m researching, sending files, or streaming,
    0:13:23 there’s zero lag or buffering. But one of my favorite features, the ability to switch my virtual
    0:13:30 location. It means I can get better deals on flights, hotels, and subscriptions just by connecting to a
    0:13:36 different country. And when I’m traveling, I can access all my usual streaming services as if I were at
    0:13:42 home. Plus, Threat Protection Pro blocks ads, malicious links before they become a problem,
    0:13:48 and Nord’s dark web monitor alerts me if my credentials ever get leaked online. It’s a premium
    0:13:53 cybersecurity for the price of a cup of coffee per month. Plus, it’s easy to use. With one click,
    0:13:58 you’re connected and protected. To get the best discount off your NordVPN plan, go to
    0:14:05 NordVPN.com slash knowledge project. Our link will also give you four extra months on the two-year plan.
    0:14:11 There’s no risk with Nord’s 30-day money-back guarantee. The link is in the podcast episode
    0:14:12 description box.
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    0:15:33 How did you go about learning about industries you knew nothing about?
    0:15:38 It’s surprising, you know, for example, let’s say that I was working in the tissue business,
    0:15:44 all right, paper tissue. I would actually go to factories. I’d go to manufacturing lines. I’d go to
    0:15:52 R&D laboratories, talk to everybody that was willing to give me time. Because consultants can’t just sit
    0:15:59 there and articulate a point of view or provide direction without really understanding the details.
    0:16:06 So my philosophy was zoom in before you zoom out. So in everything I’ve done, I always went deep into
    0:16:13 whatever the business was, the company was, try to understand things from the ground level. Then I’d zoom
    0:16:21 out and say, what’s missing here? Why is the strategic direction in need of a tweak or a reset? And then I’d go
    0:16:27 back and say, if we did reset it, how would it sit in the front line? What changes would we have to make?
    0:16:33 Then go back out. So this constant telephoto lens that I had in my head is what stood me in good stead
    0:16:38 through my entire life. Zoom in, zoom out, zoom in, zoom out.
    0:16:43 How did that help you at PepsiCo when you were CEO in terms of understanding, you know, the right side of
    0:16:49 the decimal place at the low level and then also, you know, 30,000 foot view setting strategy for a huge
    0:16:50 company?
    0:16:56 You know, some people say CEOs should be careful not to micromanage. I agree with you. What I was
    0:17:02 focused on is micro understanding. Because if you don’t understand the business down to where the rubber
    0:17:10 meets the road, you can make decisions at the top, which are not implementable. Or in the implementation,
    0:17:16 the intent of the strategy gets lost. To me, strategy and implementation have to go hand in
    0:17:24 hand. And very often the reason operating executives rise to become CEOs is because the belief is they
    0:17:30 know how a strategy has to land in the front line. In my case, I didn’t grow up in the operating businesses.
    0:17:38 I grew up in strategy, finance, you know, corporate operations, not, you know, P&L. So my replacement for
    0:17:44 having not run a P&L was go and learn each business from the ground up. So, you know, whether it was
    0:17:50 Steve Reinemann who gave me an opportunity to learn the right side of the decimal, whether it was the
    0:17:56 work I did with the Frito-Lay distribution system, it was always zoom in, learn the business, bottom up.
    0:18:01 And have the humility to tell people to teach you the business. People like it when you tell them,
    0:18:06 hey, can you teach me this business? You know, I’d go to the R&D laboratories. I tell them,
    0:18:13 teach me how the concentrate is made. Teach me how the Frito-Lay, you know, chip is produced,
    0:18:18 a Lays chip or a Doritos chip. I’d walk the manufacturing lines, walk the research labs,
    0:18:21 talk to people. I spent an inordinate amount of time doing that.
    0:18:26 What was the right side of the decimal lesson? I forget what that was.
    0:18:30 So, you know, when you’re sitting in corporate as a CFO, the head of strategy,
    0:18:34 you’re thinking in millions, tens of millions, hundreds of millions of dollars.
    0:18:40 That’s the left side of the decimal. But money is not made always in the hundreds of millions of
    0:18:47 dollars. It’s can you take a penny out of delivery for Frito-Lay? And when you have so many routes
    0:18:53 times a penny, it adds up. So on a daily basis, you’ve got to think about a tenth of a penny,
    0:19:01 half a penny on a package or on a route. So it’s that little micro pennies that add up to the whole
    0:19:08 business. So if you don’t understand the business at the most granular level, you come at it in a
    0:19:12 very different perspective. And people don’t understand you because you’re talking in tens
    0:19:18 of millions and hundreds of billions. And they’re like, I’m selling a 25 cent bag of Doritos,
    0:19:24 a 45 cent bag of Tostitos. What are you talking about? Don’t talk to us about millions. We got to
    0:19:29 cut a penny out of this route or cut a penny out of the packaging cost to get the profitability up.
    0:19:34 So you’ve got to be able to talk that language. So the left of the decimal is that language where
    0:19:41 you sit down with the team and say, can we take out two cents from this entire product package?
    0:19:45 That reminds me of J.D. Rockefeller when he was first starting out with Standard Oil and
    0:19:49 they were welding the oil cans that they were shipping it in. They were putting, I think it was
    0:19:55 13 welds on these and we do it with 11. And those two welds would make a huge difference over the
    0:20:00 volume that they were doing. I mean, the example is when we decided that it’s an imperative that
    0:20:06 we reduce the water usage in our beverage plants, right? We were using two and a half liters of water
    0:20:14 to make a liter of Pepsi. Now, I want to get it down to 1.2 or 1.3. And it’s not enough to provide a
    0:20:19 dictate and say, get it down to 1.3. It’s a question of what does it take to get it down?
    0:20:25 Let’s talk through it. Where do we use the water? How can we recycle some of the water? How do we need
    0:20:30 to clean it to fishborne standards? You’ve got to ask all those questions so that the R&D people realize
    0:20:35 that you’re not just providing a mandate. You’re basically saying, I’m going to help you get to the
    0:20:41 right answer. So then you set goals saying, by year two, let’s get to two liters. Then let’s get
    0:20:49 to 1.8, 1.7. Here’s a meaningful step down over a reasonable period of time so that we can get to
    0:20:57 the 1.4 or 1.2 within five years. So it’s having respect for the frontline. So you talk to them in a
    0:21:02 language that they’re familiar with as opposed to waving your hands and saying, I want to save 100
    0:21:06 liters of water within two years. And people go, does she know what she’s talking about?
    0:21:11 I want to come back just for a second to the consulting. And one of my favorite anecdotes
    0:21:18 from this yearbook was when you were sitting in a bar in Green Bay, Wisconsin, and you were listening
    0:21:24 to the line workers talk about the problems in the business. And you were getting insights from that.
    0:21:29 I thought that was like so unique. And I’ve never seen anybody document that before. And I’m sure
    0:21:34 people do it. Are there any other ways that you went about learning that were sort of off the beaten
    0:21:41 path that provided valuable insight like that? Well, one of the most interesting ones was I was
    0:21:48 working for a particular industry and a competitor was building a big plant. And we wanted to know how
    0:21:54 big the plant was, how many bays they’re going to have, and what kind of bays, what kind of
    0:21:59 transportation. And we couldn’t get enough information from the local filings or whatever.
    0:22:06 And the plant was being built in a very wooded area. So it was a highly wooded area, but the middle
    0:22:12 was cleared for the plant. And a big lesson I learned is that in the United States, don’t ever say the data
    0:22:18 is not available. Say you didn’t look hard enough, because the data is available somewhere. So I kept
    0:22:23 digging and digging and digging and digging to see where I could get this data. And the US government
    0:22:29 has got fantastic data available. Somebody from one of the departments said, oh, I know where you can get
    0:22:35 the data. If you did an FOI, a Freedom of Information request to the intelligence department, and ask them to
    0:22:42 give you satellite photographs of the plant from different altitudes, they can give you a pretty good
    0:22:50 picture. And I did that. And in a few days, I got the pictures at like 5,000 feet and 3,000 feet. And I now
    0:22:57 know from the top what the plant looked like, the size of the plant, you know, what kind of bays, you know, what
    0:23:03 kinds of products they might be considering manufacturing there. And so the valuable lesson is don’t tell me you
    0:23:10 can’t get the data. Find a way to get the data. Because in the US, directly, indirectly, tangentially,
    0:23:17 you can get enough information and data to, you know, really develop hypotheses about the issues you’re
    0:23:22 working on. And so I’ve always kept that in mind. When people come to me and say, I don’t know how to
    0:23:25 get this data. I say, come on, go look hard. It’s there.
    0:23:30 What an incredible story. Is there another example like top of mind that comes to you when you think of
    0:23:37 that? Well, when we were doing COVID, the question is, we didn’t use it as much, but one realized this
    0:23:43 was available to us. You know, when you had to do tracking to see who’s got COVID, but had not
    0:23:49 declared it and how big could the transmission be? You know, the syndromic surveillance, which is a
    0:23:58 well-known tool where you look at their driving patterns. If they keep going towards a pharmacy and
    0:24:04 buying tests, you know that they might have COVID. Okay. So you’ve got to immediately track that person
    0:24:10 to say, should that person be socially distancing or quarantining? So there are so looking at the
    0:24:15 wastewater that comes out of their home, you can tell whether there’s COVID. So I think it’s how do you
    0:24:20 triangulate on data using multiple sources. Now with social media, you’ve got lots more opportunities
    0:24:26 to track people, know what’s going on without invading their privacy. You can get all this
    0:24:32 information. Those days, it was all paper and pen and, you know, pouring through wards of data.
    0:24:38 As a leader, you’ve called yourself blunt and direct when delivering a message to people. I’m
    0:24:43 curious what you’ve learned about delivering a message that gets heard. You know, it’s an evolving
    0:24:50 process, if you want to call it that. Sometimes people deliver messages that are not heard because
    0:24:57 you haven’t really delivered the message clearly. People actually come out of performance appraisers and
    0:25:02 say, I think I’m doing a good job. And you’re going, oh my God, I hope that’s not what you heard.
    0:25:06 You’re saying to yourself, because this person was supposed to have told you the three or four
    0:25:12 things, areas that you’re supposed to improve upon and the three or four things that you did wrong,
    0:25:18 you’re supposed to have gotten very direct feedback. People don’t like conflict. People don’t like to
    0:25:23 deal with issues directly. They like to beat around the bush and then leave saying, I think I gave the
    0:25:29 person the message. I had the opposite perspective, which is give the message, do it in a supportive way
    0:25:36 and make sure that whatever you tell them they have to work on, you help them get to that. So I chose to
    0:25:43 write performance appraisals, which said, this is what you’ve done well. This is where I think
    0:25:48 you didn’t do well. This is what you need to work on. And if you were to work on these issues and show
    0:25:54 progress, this is where you could go. So you see what this letter did was celebrate them for what they did
    0:26:01 well. Told them what they didn’t do well. Told them the three or four things they had to demonstrate
    0:26:08 progress on in the next year and how I was going to help them. And then also told them, if you showed
    0:26:13 progress, this is your trajectory. Because if we don’t do it, I think we’re not getting the best out of people.
    0:26:20 There’s a kindness and clarity. Toughness, kindness and clarity, all three. But don’t forget the
    0:26:26 toughness. Because you’re confronting them and saying, you know, I asked you to really get to know
    0:26:31 the international markets. You made two trips internationally last year. And each trip in three
    0:26:35 days, you came right back. How could you have learned international markets without getting out of the
    0:26:41 office in the US? Okay. And then you write saying, I’d like you to visit the following countries next year.
    0:26:46 And when you visit those countries, make sure you go down to this level of detail. You know, some people
    0:26:53 would say, a CEO shouldn’t be getting to that level of detail. Yeah, they’re right. But if I truly care
    0:26:59 about this executive, and I think they have great potential, I will get to that level of detail. And I will
    0:27:04 monitor it middle of the year and say, hey, did you make any international trips? Did you follow
    0:27:09 anything I said? And then they say, nah, I really don’t want to go. Then you go there. You know, you don’t have
    0:27:14 the potential to be a CEO. From the outside, we hear these stories about how CEOs pay attention to
    0:27:21 the top 50 of the top 100. How many people inside were you really monitoring and trying to develop and
    0:27:25 having a personal, a real one-to-one personal relationship where you’re doing this and you’re
    0:27:28 in the weeds and you’re in the performance report and you’re trying to build them?
    0:27:34 I think there’s about 300 or 400 that were corporate assets. And one watched them
    0:27:39 all the time because these are people who in 15 years could be CEO. There’s something about them
    0:27:45 that, you know, you sort of caught your fancy when you were in a meeting or in some project that they
    0:27:51 were on, they had brilliant ideas. Not brilliant ideas that reinforced your thinking. Brilliant ideas
    0:27:55 that challenged your thinking and took us to a better place. Because you don’t want yes people around you.
    0:28:00 You want people who say, why don’t we push the boundaries of our thinking? Why don’t we
    0:28:06 approach this creatively? And people who put the company before themselves. I look for that all
    0:28:14 the time. And so there were three or 400 people that we actually call them corporate assets and we
    0:28:20 track them to make sure that we game plan them, give them the right assignments. And even if they
    0:28:25 couldn’t move, could we give them interesting assignments so that they could get the experiences
    0:28:30 moving? So that’s the number of people that we track.
    0:28:33 What were the signs that somebody was putting the company ahead of themselves?
    0:28:40 They would put their hand up for difficult assignments. And if something went wrong,
    0:28:44 they didn’t look for somebody else to blame. They would take the blame and say, hey, you know,
    0:28:48 I could have done a different job or I could have led differently or I could have staffed my team
    0:28:55 differently. These are people who would come to me and say, you know, whatever’s going on in this other
    0:29:02 part of the company, I think may be putting something in jeopardy. And I’m not throwing them
    0:29:07 under the bus. Would it be okay with you if I went and worked with them to perhaps write things?
    0:29:13 And I’d say, be careful how you do it, but go for it. And I will tell them that I didn’t send you
    0:29:18 there, that you were doing it out of your own good nature. Otherwise people say, oh, the CEO’s got some
    0:29:23 pets that she’s sending our way. So you’ve got to be very careful how you deal with organizational
    0:29:29 dynamics. But these are people who look around themselves and are constantly looking for ways to
    0:29:34 improve the company as opposed to how do I get the next promotion, the next raise.
    0:29:41 Are there things you’ve learned about reducing bureaucracy, increasing meritocracy and decreasing
    0:29:47 sort of company politics? Obviously in a company the size of PepsiCo with hundreds of thousands of
    0:29:53 employees, there’s a little bit of politicking going on, but how do you minimize that? And how do you
    0:29:54 find and promote the best people?
    0:30:00 That’s a very important question, Shane, because I think you have to understand the politics of an
    0:30:03 organization. Where there are people, there’s politics, okay? You’ve got to understand
    0:30:08 the politics, but don’t play in the politics. Don’t meddle in the politics. Just understand
    0:30:15 who doesn’t like whom and, you know, how meetings work. Just understand it. And then figure out how
    0:30:20 best to contribute within that. Once you start to meddle in the politics and gossip about it,
    0:30:26 you become a negative force. That’s been my mantra through the entire time that I was in corporate
    0:30:32 America. Because meddling in the politics, playing the politics, becoming political yourself and gossiping
    0:30:39 is only a formula for disaster. Focus on the job. Focus on moving everything forward. I think things
    0:30:45 would be great. Now, I was helped because of the fact that I had a family and kids. So work in the
    0:30:52 office, I had to go home to the family and kids. I had no time for bar talk or going out to dinner and
    0:30:54 talking about the politics. And I really didn’t care about it.
    0:31:00 What about bureaucracy? Was there ways to, I mean, there’s a natural entropy to these large
    0:31:06 organizations to hire somebody to do this job. And then they make that job important. And Parkinson’s
    0:31:10 law, it takes up all this time. And, you know, you’re distancing yourself from it. And if you let
    0:31:17 it go, it just becomes, you know, at the extreme, it becomes government and you go bankrupt. And how do you,
    0:31:18 how do you fight that?
    0:31:23 Companies like PepsiCo, at least in my time, I can only talk about the time when I was there.
    0:31:27 You know, we had very good scorecards to measure productivity,
    0:31:35 spans and layers. And we monitored that constantly. You know, is our output per employee going up?
    0:31:40 How many spans? How many layers do we have? Are we adding layers for no reason?
    0:31:45 You know, we monitored all of that carefully. And that’s why the company was successful, because
    0:31:50 you know, it’s like an accordion. Sometimes you end up adding a couple of layers. And then you say,
    0:31:55 hey, wait a sec, how did this happen? Why did we drift there? Let’s get the number of layers down.
    0:32:00 You know, we see certain levels of people have to have at least eight reports or 10 reports.
    0:32:07 So we have different ways we triangulate on organization, hierarchy, levels, bureaucracy,
    0:32:15 overhead. We look at all of that. And because our target setting process for the businesses and for
    0:32:23 the company as a whole is always reasonably stretched. It’s never easy targets. It’s always a reasonable
    0:32:32 stretch. And then we always promise the street a number that’s lower than what we set ourselves to do.
    0:32:38 Okay. So we never do the opposite way. We tell the street a higher number and promise ourselves lower
    0:32:44 and pay ourselves big bonuses. We always had internally stretched goals. And we promised the
    0:32:49 street something more reasonable. That way, we never got paid if we didn’t make the stretch goals. The
    0:32:54 bonus, we never paid our bonuses without the stretch goals. So that was the performance culture in
    0:32:57 PepsiCo for every leader that was there in the company.
    0:33:03 I mentioned kids and one of my favorite stories from your book, and I’m going to read this because
    0:33:08 I want to make sure I get it right, is when you got promoted to the president of PepsiCo and you drove
    0:33:15 home after work and you were so happy and you were feeling so confident about yourself. And when you
    0:33:20 got home, your mother was there and you told her you had the most incredible news. And she told you,
    0:33:26 the news can wait, I need you to go out and get milk. And you went back in the car and you drove to the
    0:33:32 store for milk and you came hopping mad, telling your mother, I’ve just become president of PepsiCo and
    0:33:38 you couldn’t just stop and listen to my news. You wanted me to go get the milk. And your mom said to
    0:33:44 you, listen to me, you may be the president of whatever, of PepsiCo or whatever, but you come home,
    0:33:51 you’re a wife, a mother and a daughter. Nobody can take your place. So leave that crown in the garage.
    0:33:56 What does that teach you about power and humility?
    0:34:01 Well, you know, we grew up with all these dualities, especially as you ascend to the top,
    0:34:07 the dualities just grow. Okay. Power and humility was a set of dualities that I had to struggle with
    0:34:17 always because I chose to be a mother. I chose to get married. I chose to work hard and ascend in my career.
    0:34:23 I was helped along by other people, but I decided I’d like to keep working and I’d like to do well and move
    0:34:32 forward. So when I make those choices, I can’t delegate all of that to somebody else. I chose to marry an Indian
    0:34:37 man, which means that there were some duties and responsibilities that went with being a person of
    0:34:45 Indian origin. I didn’t shirk them. And so having made those choices, she was right. Somebody else can
    0:34:50 take my place in the company, but at home, who else is going to be the wife and the mother and the daughter?
    0:34:58 Nobody else but me. And so I knew that I had to play those roles and play them well. So the real
    0:35:05 question was, since I made all those choices, how do I get the support structure and have the
    0:35:10 resilience to play all those roles? It’s not easy to play all those roles. Okay. You can’t just come
    0:35:15 home and start bossing your kids around because they say, I don’t work for you, mom. My kids have told me
    0:35:22 that. Stop treating us and like we work for you. Don’t give us instructions. And so it’s not that I talk to
    0:35:27 my, the people who work for me that way, but somehow they interpreted it as I just sit there in a chair
    0:35:32 and I boss people around. Little did they know, but they would say, we don’t work for you. I said,
    0:35:40 no, I understand. And so I think that all that she was telling me was just constantly remind yourself
    0:35:46 as to all the roles you play. And don’t just think that you can walk away from any of those roles
    0:35:51 because you made those choices yourself. Do you see that as balance or do you see it as harmony
    0:35:56 between these things? There’s nothing called balance. What balance? You know, anytime you use
    0:36:02 the word balance, I think of this beam sitting on a fulcrum as perfectly still. It doesn’t exist.
    0:36:12 It’s juggling all those roles. It’s not even harmony. Sometimes it’s not very harmonious. You just juggle
    0:36:18 those roles and hope the most important balls every day don’t fall and crash and burn. So that’s all you
    0:36:25 do. They’re all full-time roles, each one of them. I think this often with, you know, being ambitious
    0:36:30 and driven and working hard, and then also holding myself to an incredibly high standard as a parent.
    0:36:37 And it motivates me. And it simultaneously, like having those standards can also be
    0:36:43 counterproductive because you’re so hard on yourself. Is there any advice?
    0:36:49 You’ve got to start off by saying, look, the job is a selfish thing. Okay. We love the job. We love,
    0:36:55 you know, working on challenges. But when you have kids, you’ve got to understand it’s a tether. It’s a
    0:37:02 beautiful tether, but it’s a tether. It’s a loving tether, but it’s a lifelong tether. And so
    0:37:10 I think you should have kids only if you love having kids. I mean, I adore my kids. They may
    0:37:17 not think that always, but I just adore my kids. I love them more than anything in this world.
    0:37:24 And so does it cause angst at times? Yeah, it does. Do sometimes I sit down and say,
    0:37:28 God, I wish I could just work on this problem uninterrupted? Yes.
    0:37:35 But that tether comes with some responsibilities. And so I have to have the resilience to balance all
    0:37:41 of those things. So each of us as parents, working parents have to find a way to manage all of these
    0:37:47 priorities and not lose ourselves. So what you end up doing is giving up some of the things that you
    0:37:54 want to do for yourself. Just forget them because you’ve got to see it through the eyes of your kids,
    0:37:58 through the eyes of your spouse, through the eyes of the job. You have to morph into a new
    0:38:00 being. That’s a reality.
    0:38:05 And when you were CEO of Pepsi, your kids were pretty young. How did you manage the information
    0:38:12 flow? Just the volume of information that goes to the CEO. How did you do your full day at work?
    0:38:17 I imagine you had like a homework bag almost where you’re coming home with, you know, two or three or
    0:38:22 four hours of homework as well. But you’ve got to put dinner on the table. You’ve got to be there
    0:38:25 for the kids. How did, how do you, what did that information flow look like?
    0:38:33 I had two or three skills, talents, I don’t know what you want to call it, or curses. I didn’t sleep
    0:38:34 much. Okay.
    0:38:38 So, you know, you can either say that was, wow, you’re lucky or man, I wish I could sleep.
    0:38:46 I had a pretty good memory. I could read anything and it’ll stick in my brain. And I was a speed
    0:38:52 reader. All three helped. I had a support structure between family. And then later on, I could afford
    0:38:58 to hire help. I had a support structure. So to put food on the table, the food was prepared.
    0:39:05 And then the most important thing is I had a supportive spouse. The role that my husband
    0:39:11 played in this hall was just fantastic. And if I wasn’t there, he made sure the kids were taken
    0:39:17 care of because he was working full time too. And I did the same when he was traveling. And so I think
    0:39:25 the two of us worked as a team. We had support from family a little bit, but mostly the help around us
    0:39:31 were like family. And the weekends we had no help. It was just us. But then we said,
    0:39:36 look, the weekends we were just devoted completely to family. I never went into the office on the
    0:39:41 weekends most of the time, but I worked from home because there’s just lots to read. When the kids
    0:39:48 did homework, I did homework. And so was I always there for the kids? I’d say no. But you don’t get
    0:39:54 to be CEO by being the perfect mom, the perfect wife, the perfect everything. You don’t. You do the
    0:39:56 best you can. And that’s all I did.
    0:39:59 Do you think a lot of people are unwilling to make those sacrifices?
    0:40:06 It’s hard to make those sacrifices. I mean, I’d like to say it’s easy. It’s not. You look back and go,
    0:40:11 God, I missed all of these things I could have done for myself. I missed all of these fun events. I missed
    0:40:18 20 date nights. Yes, you missed all of that. But, you know, on balance, if you put it all together,
    0:40:21 the whole package worked okay.
    0:40:28 I see this often. We hold up CEOs and entrepreneurs and people starting a business as sort of, we want
    0:40:31 that, but we don’t want all the things that come with it.
    0:40:37 It’s that climb. It’s a tough climb. Anybody who thinks it’s easy to get there and then keep the job
    0:40:45 of stuff. I mean, every organization is a pyramid. Okay. It’s not a cylinder. It’s a pyramid. So as you go from
    0:40:51 the bottom layer of managerial positions to the top, think of it in PepsiCo and the bottom layer, probably
    0:40:59 14,000, 15,000 people. By the time you get to CEO minus two, you’re at about 60 or 70. CEO minus one, you’re down
    0:41:07 to 15. So you’ve gone from 15,000 to 60 to 15 to one. Just think of the climb. And then this
    0:41:12 is all happening at a time when the world around you is changing so much. So you’ve got to keep up
    0:41:16 with all the changes in the world. And you’ve got to make sure that you earn your place in the next
    0:41:22 realm. And remember, if you don’t earn your place, the people below you are waiting to push you out.
    0:41:29 So people don’t realize that as you get more senior in an organization, it’s up or out. So just keep
    0:41:31 those jobs. It’s very difficult.
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    0:42:16 They’ve worked with experts like Dr. Andrew Huberman and Dr. Andy Galpin to create products that support long-term performance,
    0:42:25 not just short-term boosts. From recovery to focus to energy, this is the supplement line that actually delivers.
    0:42:42 Is that why there’s a lot of turnover after a CEO change? Like when you were promoted to CEO,
    0:42:46 the people you were competing with for CEO probably left.
    0:42:52 I kept many of them because I told them, look, I may become CEO, but I can’t, I don’t see why we
    0:42:57 can’t work together. Most of them stayed. After two or three years, they got CEO jobs and they left,
    0:43:02 but many of them stayed. But you’re right. You know, when you’re, when, if there are five people
    0:43:08 competing to be CEO and only one is made CEO, typically what happens is other companies grab
    0:43:11 them. Especially for a company like PepsiCo, which has a great leadership development,
    0:43:17 people came and grab them. And so they go off to be CEOs, which is good because you’ve got PepsiCo alumni
    0:43:25 now running so many companies. But you know, you’ve got to think about this math, which is pretty tough.
    0:43:30 When you became CEO, I’m going to rewind after this and go to pre-CEO. But when you became CEO,
    0:43:35 you walked into your general counsel’s office, Larry, and you fired him and you hadn’t thought about this
    0:43:40 beforehand. And then he looked stunned. And about 10 seconds later, you hired him back. What was the
    0:43:47 importance of that? I had to make sure that all the people working for me knew that they were working
    0:43:53 for me, the new CEO, not just carryovers from the old CEO. Typically what happens when you have carryovers
    0:43:59 is that people wonder if you can trust them. And not that there’s any bad feelings between you and the old
    0:44:05 CEO, but you want your own team. The general counsel is one of the most important jobs. And even though I worked
    0:44:10 very closely with Larry and I adored him, I didn’t ever want him to think that he was always going to be
    0:44:16 viewed as a carryover from Steve, even though Steve and I were best friends, great colleagues. I
    0:44:22 respected Steve enormously. So I had to make sure Larry realized that I’m going to respect him even
    0:44:28 more if he was now my hire. So I walked in and said, Larry, you’re fired. But I did it with a smile.
    0:44:32 And he just looked at me and said, what do you mean, boss? I said, okay, you’re now hired as my general
    0:44:39 counsel. He burst out laughing. And I mean, my first years at PepsiCo, my early years as CEO,
    0:44:42 was successful because of Larry. What a general counsel.
    0:44:47 Well, even he said that that was an important moment because it reset him as well to not being
    0:44:54 a holdover and to being there. Is it, when you mentioned you sort of like the old CEO around,
    0:44:57 if a CEO goes to the board, how does that impact the new CEO?
    0:45:03 The outgoing CEO is never in the deliberations. You provide your perspective and then you leave the
    0:45:08 room. The board picks the next CEO because remember the outgoing CEO doesn’t have to deal with the new
    0:45:14 CEO, right? And so that’s what happened when Steve was stepping down. And that’s what happened when I
    0:45:20 was stepping down. I told the board what I thought the company needed going forward. I gave them the
    0:45:26 dossiers of four or five people and said, these are all the pros and cons of each candidate based on what
    0:45:31 the company needs. And this is how these people have evolved over time, the trajectory of their
    0:45:35 development over the last five or seven years. But it’s your decision. You need to
    0:45:40 deliberate. You need to interview each of these people. You need to do your assessments. Because at
    0:45:46 the end of the day, I’m gone. You have to make sure the company stays successful based on the choices you
    0:45:53 make. And so the board deliberated, diligently met each candidate one-on-one and got to know them and
    0:46:02 spent almost two years deciding who should be CEO. So that’s the way to do succession. And so I think
    0:46:07 outgoing CEOs can develop people, but they don’t select the person.
    0:46:13 When a CEO steps down, is there a risk if they join the board of the company, they’re stepping down from
    0:46:18 a CEO in a way that limits the incoming CEO in a way?
    0:46:24 That’s my belief. I think an outgoing CEO should just leave, should not sit on the board because then
    0:46:29 you’re sort of curbing what the new CEO can do because they’re not always looking over their shoulder to
    0:46:36 see if they can take a direction that’s different than the CEO sitting on the board. It’s a terrible
    0:46:42 situation. When I stepped down as CEO, I told the board I wouldn’t be chairman for more than two months
    0:46:49 max, max. And then I’m out because I wanted the new CEO to have total flexibility to do whatever he
    0:46:56 wanted. While we’re on boards, you’re on many boards, including Amazon’s. What’s the difference
    0:47:02 between being the CEO and being a board member? When you’re a CEO, you’re it. When you’re on a board,
    0:47:09 you’re one among peers. So it’s a group of you collectively that are serving the company.
    0:47:15 Nobody is more important. We’re all doing it together. So it’s got to be, you’ve got to
    0:47:22 understand you’re dealing with peers. And together we are the board first. Point number two, there’s a
    0:47:28 deep urge as a CEO to want to manage the company. You cannot manage the company. You can only provide
    0:47:33 direction, ideas, suggestions to the company. And worry about the governance of the company.
    0:47:40 So you’ve got to make sure you don’t dig into the reeds and create confusion as to whose direction
    0:47:46 should we be taking. So it’s very important that CEOs forget their CEOship and put on a board hat.
    0:47:52 And always ask yourself the question, when I was CEO, if a board member behaved the way I’m behaving
    0:47:54 now, would I have liked it?
    0:47:55 Oh, that’s a good question.
    0:48:03 And if you say, Oh God, I would have hated it, then change your behavior. Okay. So understand the
    0:48:08 roles of the CEO and understand the role of the board member. And the third thing is, you know,
    0:48:13 when you’re a board member of the company, remember that the shareholders are expecting you to play
    0:48:20 the role of, you know, setting the right strategy, picking the right leaders, all of that are the roles
    0:48:25 that this company is expecting you to, the shareholders are expecting you to perform. Focus
    0:48:31 on those things. Focus on the strategy. Focus on leadership development. Understand the business so
    0:48:36 you can marry it with the strategy. Focus on those things. Don’t try to get into the weeds and try to
    0:48:41 micromanage quarterly results, annual results. It’s just not your role.
    0:48:45 You’ve spent your life in strategy. What is strategy?
    0:48:51 You know, it’s a nebulous concept, but it’s a very clear concept in the other hand. The strategy in
    0:49:02 my books is crafting a path forward for an entity that allows it to execute on that path forward
    0:49:09 with superior results. Can you never craft a strategy so that your results are diminished? You always craft
    0:49:15 a strategy to improve your results. But if you craft a strategy which is not implementable, it’s not a
    0:49:22 strategy. So strategy requires implementation with it and a place that’s better than where
    0:49:27 you are today. Both are difficult to, because you have to almost anticipate what the outcome of the
    0:49:33 strategy could be. It can be implemented and you’re going to get to a better place. And that’s the challenge
    0:49:38 with strategy. You’ve almost got to have a 360 degree view of the environment, of competition, of the markets,
    0:49:44 of customer revolution, everything else. And then you’re crafting a path to say, this is how we should proceed.
    0:49:50 This is why it’s going to be better for us than it is today. And incidentally, if the world around us
    0:49:54 changes, we’re going to zag a little bit. But we’re still going to focus on getting to a better
    0:50:02 place. That’s why I think strategy requires unique skills. Zooming in, zooming out, being able to have
    0:50:08 peripheral vision constantly, learning from other industries. That’s where consulting was a huge
    0:50:15 benefit, because that’s what consulting taught you. Strategy consulting. And I think that’s what I sort of
    0:50:19 took to heart and everywhere I went, that’s what stood me in good stead.
    0:50:24 There’s two times that you’ve mentioned in this that it has to be implementable. What’s the importance
    0:50:30 of that? Is that something that comes up often? Or is that the difference between academic strategy and sort
    0:50:38 of real world strategy? Yes, definitely the latter. Because very often, strategy is as it is taught.
    0:50:43 It’s taught by people who’ve never run a company, never implemented strategy. So I’ll give you an
    0:50:53 example. In business schools, they teach the fact that organizations are siloed. And siloed
    0:50:58 organizations are terrible. You should have information exchange within divisions in the
    0:51:05 company, et cetera, et cetera. But then universities are the most siloed places. There’s hardly any
    0:51:10 sharing of information across departments. It’s the most siloed organization. You see, what it is,
    0:51:16 is they’re teaching something which is not implementable in that entity. So from our perspective,
    0:51:23 if I go into the company and say, I want power of one, I want PepsiCo to practice power of one,
    0:51:29 as opposed to Frito-Lay beverages, I’m not going to say, what is power of one? What do I mean when
    0:51:34 I say power of one? What all do I have to change to make power of one happen? Where can the friction
    0:51:40 be in the company to implement power of one? How do I provide the right incentives to remove that
    0:51:44 friction? Because at the end of the day, everything has to happen through people. So you’ve got to
    0:51:49 understand people. And you’ve got to understand all the changes you’ve got to make to people,
    0:51:56 processes, incentive structures, everything to enable a change to happen. And that’s what I mean
    0:52:01 by implementable. Don’t just sit there saying we should have power of one. Talk about what is it going
    0:52:08 to take to implement it. And understand where it could be derailed, anticipated, keep addressing it. Watch
    0:52:13 for science when it’s not working well. See what changes you’ve got to make. So you’ve got to be very
    0:52:18 alert when you’re making a change. You’re one of the few people I’ve interviewed that started with
    0:52:23 removing friction, which I think is beautiful. Most people start with force. How do I make this happen?
    0:52:29 How do I will this? How do I push through the friction? Most of it is friction in organizations,
    0:52:34 friction points, which you’ve got to look for and remove it. Coming back to the board just for a second
    0:52:38 here. What’s the difference between a good board member and a great board member?
    0:52:45 A good board member probably does governance well and knows all the board rules and can show up at a
    0:52:50 meeting reading the material. A great board member reads a lot more than the material that’s provided
    0:52:55 to you. You know, go read everything that’s available outside of the company, its businesses, its competition,
    0:53:02 technologies, whatever. So when you come to the meeting, you don’t just do what the basic stuff required
    0:53:08 to get through the two days of board meetings. But you’re adding value over and above the basic
    0:53:15 requirements of the board. And so when you provide insights that really cause the company to pause
    0:53:21 and say, God, she’s got a great point there. Let’s call her back and say, Hey, Indra, can you tell us
    0:53:26 more about what you meant by that? Now you’re really a value-added board member, as opposed to, yeah,
    0:53:32 so-and-so is a good board member. Read the board material, made sure that the governance was
    0:53:39 ticked off. I think that’s the table stakes to be on the board. But a great board member does a lot of
    0:53:43 work themselves to read way beyond what the company gave you to read.
    0:53:50 I love that. Amazon is known for doing things completely differently internally, including
    0:53:54 their memos to start meetings and stuff like that. What are the lessons that you’ve learned from being
    0:53:58 on the board there that may have been counterintuitive or new to you?
    0:54:03 You know, the entire company is focused on the customer. The obsession of the customer is
    0:54:07 something else. And it’s always like, how do we make customers’ life better? How do we
    0:54:14 lower costs for customers? How do we improve delivery times? How do we latency? All these things are
    0:54:20 what they focus on all the time. So I’ve never been part of such a customer-obsessed company.
    0:54:28 PepsiCo is consumer-focused, but these are customer-obsessed companies, first. Second, Amazon has paranoia about
    0:54:37 sort of devolving into hierarchy and what they call losing the day-one culture. Day-one culture being when
    0:54:43 they were young, entrepreneurial, how hungry they were and how they hustled. They want to have that
    0:54:49 hustle culture all the time. The fact that they’re paranoid about it, even today, given their size,
    0:54:54 is what blows me away. They’re always scared that they will lose that day-one culture. And so you’ve
    0:55:00 got everybody hustling to make sure that hierarchy is not built. Too much bureaucracy doesn’t kill
    0:55:05 ideas. And so anybody can come up with an idea as long as they can write a six-page document and present
    0:55:11 it to people and, you know, seek funding if your document is good. So I would look at Amazon as this
    0:55:20 gigantic day-one company that’s customer-obsessed. It’s an unusual culture, a culture that’s prevailed,
    0:55:30 a culture that’s constantly re-examined so that it never, ever changes from this day-one hustle.
    0:55:34 And I feel privileged to be part of this company.
    0:55:41 You’ve led directly as CEO through many crises, including, I think you had a food safety scare
    0:55:47 while you were CEO of PepsiCo. What are the differences between, I mean, academic and real
    0:55:50 world leading to a crisis, I guess, would be a good way to frame this?
    0:55:56 You know, academics teach crises, which is good, because how else will students learn about what
    0:56:03 leaders did in crises? So I respect academics who teach all that. And they do a good job of doing
    0:56:09 the teaching. The thing is, when you’re in a crisis, it’s happening in real time. Public is writing about
    0:56:18 it. You’re being taken down the eyes of everybody in the media and investors, analysts. You’re home.
    0:56:25 Everybody’s scared because your face is on TV saying, what the hell’s going on? And it was even tougher for
    0:56:34 a female CEO because, you know, women CEOs got a lot more attention than men. And so when you’re going
    0:56:40 through a crisis, first of all, you’ve got to understand the crisis down to the details as opposed
    0:56:46 to, we have a recall. Sit down and get your R&D and manufacturing guys and say, tell me about this
    0:56:53 in a lot more detail. Ask all the questions you need to ask to understand exactly the root cause of the
    0:56:53 crisis.
    0:56:59 Then let them give you a plan as to how they’re going to address it. Then step back and decide what the
    0:57:04 messaging is going to be. Very often, people don’t take the time to really understand the root cause of
    0:57:09 what caused this crisis. And don’t listen to the plan. And then they try to pass the blame on to somebody
    0:57:12 else. As a CEO, the buck stops with you.
    0:57:17 How does that go with positioning? I love this because how do you take what’s happening? You’ve
    0:57:21 agreed that this is the plan. This is the path forward. You have credibility with this. I think
    0:57:27 we can do a lot with this. And then how do I position that in a way where the company is moving
    0:57:32 forward in the best way possible, but you’re positioning it for an audience too, to be receptive
    0:57:38 to it and not pass the buck. Honesty is critically important. When you have a crisis, be honest with
    0:57:44 your employees, with the outside world saying, this is the crisis we’re facing. This is how we’re going
    0:57:50 to address it. And we’re going to give you an update on this timeframe. Honesty means, I mean,
    0:57:57 changes the whole game. Because when you try to use big words to hide the crisis, so you’re just trying
    0:58:03 to deflect responsibility. People just don’t have time for this, including your own employees. Okay.
    0:58:09 And so I’ll give you a little crisis. When we had our second activist investor in the stock,
    0:58:13 it was a crisis for the company because nobody likes to have an activist in the stock.
    0:58:18 I did a town hall and I told everybody, I said, look, I’ll give you regular updates
    0:58:24 on the activist. You’ll see it on TV. Ignore it. There’s a general counsel, the CFO and I,
    0:58:29 who’ll handle the activist. Your job is to just keep focusing on delivering performance. That’s
    0:58:35 your only job. Don’t worry about the other distractions. And you can be sure that three
    0:58:41 of us have the company’s best interest at heart. And they all knew that I always put the company
    0:58:45 before me. I said, we have the best interest of the company at heart, but we will keep you informed.
    0:58:54 But your job is to keep driving the performance. Now, deep down inside, you know, I was in turmoil
    0:58:58 because I had to deal with all of this stuff instead of just focusing on the company. However,
    0:59:04 to the employees, I had to show that I was calm, I was in control, and that I was going to take
    0:59:12 them to a better place. So I think boards pick leaders for resilience, ability to manage through
    0:59:14 crises. And can you stay calm through it?
    0:59:18 The second activist investor you had, was that Nelson?
    0:59:20 Nelson Peltz. Yeah.
    0:59:24 Walk me through that. What was that like? What was the engagement with them like? I mean,
    0:59:28 it’s so far in the past now that it’s all sort of come out, but from your point of view?
    0:59:32 It was a typical activist book. He wrote a white paper and he gave it to me. I mean,
    0:59:39 I knew Nelson Peltz for years. I liked him actually. So there was no strangers walked off the street
    0:59:45 with the white paper. It wasn’t that way. He’d done his work. Most activists pick data selectively
    0:59:49 to make their case. And so when he gave me the white paper, I didn’t sit here going,
    0:59:54 I’m not going to listen to you. I said, look, let me study his white paper because he may be the
    0:59:59 external activist. I’m an internal activist. I want this company to do well. So why don’t we look at
    1:00:06 his white paper as a free consulting report? And let’s pour through it. If he has any ideas that
    1:00:13 we haven’t implemented in the company, let’s take those ideas. But we’re not going to make big changes
    1:00:19 to the company just because Nelson said, I had to make it. We’ll make it if it makes sense for this
    1:00:25 company. And if we can keep performing at the level we’re performing. So I was clear on the company
    1:00:30 strategy. The board was clear on the company strategy. We listened to everything Nelson said,
    1:00:35 because we have great respect for him. Okay. So this is not about blowing off activists as terrible.
    1:00:40 Some companies do that. I didn’t do that. I said, I’m going to treat him with respect. Every time we
    1:00:46 wanted to meet, I met. Anytime he wanted to meet a board member, they met with him. But every time he
    1:00:51 proposed something, we said, look, we’re doing this because of the strategy of this direction,
    1:00:56 because of these trends. If he wants to change his strategy, it’s because you think the trend has
    1:01:02 changed. Has the trend changed? No, it hasn’t. Then if the trend is that way, that’s our strategy and
    1:01:09 we’re not changing it. Okay. So he came around. I mean, he’s a smart guy. He came around and we’ve
    1:01:13 remained friends since. There’s no question about bad feelings or anything of that sort.
    1:01:19 Often, activists want a board seat or demand a board seat. What are the pros and cons from your point of view
    1:01:25 as a CEO of letting an activist investor onto the board? And at what stake do you think it makes more
    1:01:28 sense, even if you disagree with it? What ownership levels?
    1:01:33 Well, it depends on the board member they propose. You know, Bill Johnson, who we used to run Heinz,
    1:01:40 came on our board. And Nelson actually suggested Bill Johnson. But what Nelson didn’t realize is that
    1:01:45 Bill Johnson and I knew each other and we were friends already. So when Nelson recommended Bill
    1:01:50 Johnson, it was a welcome thing for us because he came from the consumer world, knew us well.
    1:01:56 Now, had he recommended somebody who was disruptive, we may have paused and said, don’t want that board
    1:02:01 member because you don’t want to spend our time answering activist questions when we should be
    1:02:08 running the company. Bill Johnson was hugely accretive to the board. And, you know, he had known Nelson
    1:02:15 forever, but he knew the consumer world, he knew PepsiCo. And so, you know, he actually added a lot to the board.
    1:02:16 It was a win-win.
    1:02:17 It was a total win-win.
    1:02:23 Is there a percentage in your head where if a shareholder has a certain percentage, then it’s sort of probably right
    1:02:25 for them to have a board seat, even if they might be disruptive?
    1:02:34 Oh, 15% or so, 10, 15%, maybe, maybe. But one to 2% and you try to agitate for a board seat, I think that’s really wrong.
    1:02:42 You mentioned women CEOs. Correct me if I get this wrong. When you became CEO of PepsiCo, you were the first woman CEO in the S&P 500?
    1:02:56 No, no, no, no. A couple others, Carly Fiorina, Warsaw. So, when I became CEO in 2006, I think there were 11 companies that had women CEOs, okay?
    1:03:04 When I became president of PepsiCo, I think I was one of two or three. But I was the first woman of color to run a Fortune 50 company.
    1:03:10 Now, I think there’s about 54 women CEOs of the Fortune, of the S&P 500.
    1:03:13 Does it feel like we’ve made progress to you?
    1:03:19 You know, when you’re at 10%, it’s not really progress because 50% of the MBA graduates are women.
    1:03:27 Okay, so somewhere that pipeline is leaky. But, you know, it’s a journey because you’ve got to make so many trade-offs.
    1:03:37 Why did it get to the top? But it was novel at the time I became CEO, the first immigrant person of color from an emerging market
    1:03:44 to lead a Fortune 50, iconic American company. It might have made a lot of news, but deep down inside, I’m like, God, I better prove myself.
    1:03:52 Okay, I lived off of that fear of making sure that I did my job right and didn’t let any of these constituencies down.
    1:03:54 To the outside world, it was big news.
    1:04:06 How do we go about creating more of an equal opportunity while maintaining a meritocracy in companies that allow for more women?
    1:04:08 Like, where do we get in the way of this happening?
    1:04:14 I think if you decide that you want to have a meritocracy in the company, you should draw from the entire talent pool.
    1:04:21 When you have more than 50% of the graduates are women, women are getting all the top grades, they’re hungry, they want to move ahead.
    1:04:27 And then you don’t hire from that pool because you start off saying, oh, she’s a woman, must not be very good.
    1:04:30 You have these biases, that’s a problem.
    1:04:39 So you’ve constantly got to check your biases at the door and say, if I had to put on a blindfold and hire people, how do I make sure that I draw from the best and the brightest?
    1:04:41 That’s what consulting does, okay?
    1:04:43 So you draw from the best and the brightest.
    1:04:52 And then while they’re in the company moving ahead, make sure that barriers that exist to their success are removed.
    1:05:00 Because once you attack somebody’s confidence, it attacks their competence.
    1:05:12 So if a woman is presenting and you roll your eyes at her, or when she’s presenting, you cut her off, or she says something and you cut her off, or, you know, I’ve seen this often.
    1:05:16 Somebody will say, oh, yeah, this is so theoretical when a woman presents.
    1:05:19 When a man says the same thing, they’ll say, oh, God, that’s so brilliant.
    1:05:24 So these things happen as a matter of practice in companies.
    1:05:29 Women, people of color, when they present, they do go through some bad behavior.
    1:05:30 I’m talking of then.
    1:05:31 Things have changed a lot now.
    1:05:33 But in those days, it did happen.
    1:05:41 And so when those things happen, you’ve got to figure out a way to call those people out right there and say, hey, can you let her finish?
    1:05:46 Can you let this person articulate their point of view before you cut them off?
    1:05:49 Will you stop rolling your eyes when she’s presenting?
    1:05:51 Because you can feel the person rolling their eyes.
    1:06:03 So if you really value every talent for what it is, meritocracy, bring them all in, allow them all to thrive, then everybody has the confidence to continue to contribute.
    1:06:11 But if you have all these unconscious biases that impact people who are different, then they lose their confidence.
    1:06:15 And once you lose your confidence, you no longer feel comfortable.
    1:06:19 So your competence is impacted because you’re questioning yourself.
    1:06:20 Am I good enough?
    1:06:21 Can I do this?
    1:06:34 So I think the whole idea of meritocracy is thinking about all talent is equal, as opposed to one talent is more important than the others.
    1:06:37 And then creating equality of opportunity, I would imagine.
    1:06:45 Opportunity, environment, constantly monitoring it, making sure we don’t slip back to old bad habits, and making sure we have the numbers.
    1:06:52 Usually when you have one or two diverse people in the organization, you can’t really practice how to be inclusive.
    1:07:03 And then you have to constantly check yourself and say, if 60% of the summa cum laude from that college were women, where are my summa cum laude?
    1:07:05 Why aren’t they in this company?
    1:07:06 Okay?
    1:07:13 So you’ve got to ask yourself those simple questions based on the statistics coming out of all the graduating classes.
    1:07:23 Because if 55% of the graduating class are women, 55% of the summa cum laude and magna cum laude are women.
    1:07:31 And even in STEM disciplines, if it’s more than 50%, and if you only have 20% of the hires are women, why aren’t they coming to you?
    1:07:38 So you’ve got to look at all these numbers and say, let me ask the question about, what is it about my company?
    1:07:42 Especially if you’re a conceivable company, you go, boy, they should really want to come here.
    1:07:44 What are we doing wrong?
    1:07:47 So you’ve got to get introspective yourself.
    1:07:59 One of the anecdotes that you pointed out in your book, and correct me if I’m getting this wrong, because I’m just going from memory here, is when you started listening in on the performance reviews with the men, it was they did all these things and this.
    1:08:03 But with the women, it seemed like they did all these things but this.
    1:08:06 Was that like a bias within the organization?
    1:08:08 Or what was going on there?
    1:08:12 So performance appraisals for men is like, you know, he didn’t deliver on all his goals.
    1:08:14 Yeah, I agree.
    1:08:17 But the guy’s got really, he’s got great potential.
    1:08:21 With the women, it was, she delivered on all her goals.
    1:08:27 But I think, you know, her future trajectory is not that great.
    1:08:28 You go, why not?
    1:08:32 Well, I don’t know, something about her tells me that she won’t be successful.
    1:08:34 Sometimes it was just ineffable.
    1:08:39 Not with all people, but some of the people, that’s how the dialogue would go.
    1:08:43 You have to stop it at that time and say, let’s not just leave this discussion.
    1:08:47 Let’s really have a conversation about this because maybe it’s true, maybe it’s not.
    1:08:57 And sometimes it used to be issues related to her style or the way she dressed or how she showed emotion or how she gesticulated too much.
    1:09:13 And now these women show up in these C-suites and it’s a different gender, behavior, everything.
    1:09:14 People have to get used to it.
    1:09:17 So you need more examples of people in C-suites.
    1:09:22 And then you say, okay, look, each person behaves differently, but they all bring a richness to the dialogue.
    1:09:25 Was that what happened when you quit PepsiCo?
    1:09:32 Because you quit, you went to Roger and you said, I’m leaving, I’m going to do this board meeting and then I’m gone.
    1:09:34 I didn’t quit, remember, I just threatened to quit.
    1:09:38 I said, I’m, oh yeah, I just said, after this meeting, I’m leaving tomorrow.
    1:09:39 If nothing changes.
    1:09:41 I didn’t even say that.
    1:09:45 I said, you know, look, you’ve been watching this bad behavior and you’ve said nothing.
    1:09:50 So I’m going to make this presentation tomorrow to the board.
    1:09:51 After that, I quit.
    1:09:53 And he didn’t say anything.
    1:10:02 And then that day, the meeting with all the presidents that was supposed to happen, where I would always get beaten up, didn’t happen.
    1:10:07 He called off that meeting and said he brought in the people who were tough on me.
    1:10:08 And I think he had a chat with them.
    1:10:16 And then the next day morning, he walked into my office and said, say, you know, next week we’re going on this trip to look at these operations and these operations.
    1:10:17 Just make sure.
    1:10:20 He didn’t even tell me, I hope you’ve changed your mind.
    1:10:21 He just assumed.
    1:10:22 He just acted like.
    1:10:23 Yeah, nothing.
    1:10:27 And then, believe me, I don’t know what conversation he had with those people.
    1:10:30 Everything was night and day after that.
    1:10:32 We never talked about it.
    1:10:34 Did you ever have to have a conversation like that with people?
    1:10:38 I would call out bad behavior immediately when I saw it.
    1:10:42 But in a gentle way, I’d say, hey, can you let her finish?
    1:10:45 Stop interrupting her or him.
    1:10:46 It could be a him too.
    1:10:51 What I would say, don’t roll your eyes when they’re talking unless something’s wrong with your eyes.
    1:10:52 Okay.
    1:10:58 So, but I do it in a way that didn’t make them feel bad, but it was direct and pointed.
    1:11:00 You only have to do that a couple of times.
    1:11:01 Yeah, that’s right.
    1:11:03 The message goes quickly down the company.
    1:11:07 You had a conversation once with Steve Jobs where he told you not to be too nice.
    1:11:11 How did that candid conversation influence how you ran PepsiCo?
    1:11:16 I think he taught me a valuable, first of all, it gave me time, which was just so generous.
    1:11:25 I think the biggest lesson I took away was he said, if you care about something, and you should care about a few things, show your passion.
    1:11:41 For example, the guy who ran TVWHI at day, the ad agency, which was doing work for Apple, would always say, when you go to see Steve Jobs, the campaign, if he didn’t like it, he’d throw the stuff all over the room and say, I want to see a new campaign by the morning.
    1:11:48 And you scream, but he wasn’t doing it to destroy the place.
    1:11:57 He was doing it because he cared so much about Apple that he wanted the absolute, brilliant, right campaign for Apple.
    1:12:05 And his way of showing his frustration at himself and at the group was to act the way he did, okay?
    1:12:16 Now, as a woman, I’m not the kind that utters full-letter words and throws things around, but all that Steve Jobs was telling me was, people have got to know what you’re really passionate about.
    1:12:22 When you’re really passionate about something, don’t sit here going, God, I don’t want to send them back three times.
    1:12:24 It’s okay to send them back three times.
    1:12:27 Get it to a point where you’re really comfortable, this is going to be good for the company.
    1:12:29 Show your passion, push people back.
    1:12:34 So I got to a point when design as a discipline was set up in PepsiCo.
    1:12:38 When they’d bring me something I didn’t like, I’d say, hate it.
    1:12:39 Absolutely hate it.
    1:12:45 And then I would tell a joke about it and say, this is what the customer is going to say when they see it.
    1:12:48 Or I’d say something like, this new product is delayed.
    1:12:49 I don’t care.
    1:12:50 In six months, we have to launch it.
    1:12:53 Even though it normally takes three years to do it.
    1:12:54 And guess what?
    1:12:55 I’m the program manager.
    1:12:58 So we’re going to meet every Friday morning to talk about this program.
    1:12:59 People go, you’re the program manager?
    1:13:01 I said, yeah, I’m the program manager.
    1:13:09 And people go, this is a disaster because to have a CEO review every week means we have to have two other reviews before we come to see you.
    1:13:11 I said, no, I’m the program manager.
    1:13:12 I’m not the CEO.
    1:13:13 I’m the program manager.
    1:13:14 And I was.
    1:13:17 And I told them, no need for pre-discussions before you come to me.
    1:13:19 I’m the program manager.
    1:13:25 And so people sort of realized that I was passionate about launching this product.
    1:13:28 And so they went along with the program and they were grateful.
    1:13:34 I removed every barrier, told them that, okay, this is what’s holding you back.
    1:13:38 Let me make a few phone calls and see if I can’t get this out of this company faster.
    1:13:40 So I jumped through hoops for them.
    1:13:46 There’s a lot of value in being passionate about something and just that energy sort of like transferring over to everybody else.
    1:13:49 There’s also a huge benefit to just having clarity.
    1:13:51 It’s not like it’s okay.
    1:13:53 You know, maybe try changing colors.
    1:13:55 It’s like, no, I don’t like it.
    1:13:56 It’s garbage.
    1:13:58 Like come back with something new.
    1:13:59 But there’s one big lesson.
    1:14:04 When you’re in such positions of leadership and you have passion about something, don’t try to take the credit.
    1:14:12 If the team does a great job at the end of it, even though you were the program manager and you drove it, give the credit to the team.
    1:14:13 Because you couldn’t have done it yourself.
    1:14:14 The team did it.
    1:14:19 It’s just that you exercise the power of your office to help them get there.
    1:14:20 So the credit should go to them.
    1:14:22 Make sure you give them the credit.
    1:14:25 When if something goes wrong, take the blame.
    1:14:29 But, you know, blame flows upwards.
    1:14:30 Credit should flow downward.
    1:14:34 Steve Jobs inspired the design thinking at Pepsi.
    1:14:37 How did that change how PepsiCo went about their business?
    1:14:40 Like, I remember you gave binders to sort of people and stuff.
    1:14:43 But like, how did it tangibly work its way into products?
    1:14:45 And what was the impact of that?
    1:14:48 Well, all of a sudden people are saying, God, we can do so much for design.
    1:14:49 We can change our innovation process.
    1:14:52 We can change our package, our product design.
    1:14:58 We started to move from what’s the color of the package on the shelf to how is this product going to be consumed?
    1:14:59 How is it going to be used?
    1:15:00 How is it going to be carried?
    1:15:02 How is it going to be stored on the shelf?
    1:15:04 How is it going to be stored in the pantry at home?
    1:15:13 We were thinking about the chain, the use chain, all the way to how does a consumer shop for it, put it in the pantry at home,
    1:15:16 and then take it out and eat it and carry it in the purse.
    1:15:22 We were thinking about every touch point of the product until it got into the mouth and was consumed.
    1:15:28 So it expanded the entire chain, which goes into the thinking.
    1:15:32 And previously you were sort of focused on like, what’s going to make it stand out on the shelf?
    1:15:33 How are people going to buy it?
    1:15:34 Right.
    1:15:36 And then we’re not worried about it once they put it in the cart.
    1:15:41 I think, you know, if there were 10 steps, we worried about three steps in the past, about 30%.
    1:15:44 Now we started to worry about 80, 90%.
    1:15:46 So it was a different experience.
    1:15:47 It was fulfilling.
    1:15:48 People loved it.
    1:15:52 Are there any other lessons that you’ve taken from other CEOs?
    1:15:54 I mean, you had a conversation with Jobs.
    1:16:00 You worked with Jeff Bezos on the board of Amazon where you’re like, oh, that’s a really good idea or really clever.
    1:16:05 I wish I would have known that before or ones that you did implement while you were CEO of PepsiCo.
    1:16:09 You know, one of the things you should do as a CEO, talk to other CEOs.
    1:16:14 If you see something interesting they’re doing, you’re in such a rare club, the CEO club.
    1:16:16 Call them up and say, hey, you’ve done this.
    1:16:17 It’s so interesting.
    1:16:20 Can you share some findings with me?
    1:16:22 Can you share some results with me?
    1:16:25 Or I’ll give you one example.
    1:16:29 We used to do business with club stores like Costco and people like that.
    1:16:33 Very different businesses than a regular retail store.
    1:16:34 Item merchandisers.
    1:16:36 Costco only merchandisers.
    1:16:38 So many SKUs, limited number of SKUs.
    1:16:43 They’re all in a different packaging than most other retailers.
    1:16:47 You know, I sat there going, I don’t understand Costco enough.
    1:16:51 My salesman told me about Costco, but I didn’t understand Costco enough.
    1:16:56 So I called Jim Sinigal, who was at that time the founder and still running Costco.
    1:16:59 I said, Jim, I want to do better at Costco.
    1:17:01 I’m CEO.
    1:17:05 And he said to me, if you want to do better at Costco, walk the store with me.
    1:17:09 Come to a store opening, spend the whole day, because he goes to every store opening.
    1:17:11 Walk the store with me.
    1:17:14 Amazing human being, Jim Sinigal.
    1:17:17 Just, I mean, heart of gold that he gave me a day.
    1:17:19 Walk the store with me.
    1:17:22 Taught me how club stores operate.
    1:17:25 Taught me the basics of the business.
    1:17:26 This is CEO to CEO.
    1:17:28 He taught me the basics of the business.
    1:17:34 And in that store, everybody watches him, Jim Sinigal and me, being great friends.
    1:17:36 But I’m the student.
    1:17:37 He’s the teacher.
    1:17:39 And he taught me the business.
    1:17:40 Oh my gosh.
    1:17:41 Walk me through this.
    1:17:42 Like, what did he point out?
    1:17:43 What did he notice?
    1:17:45 What did he draw your attention to?
    1:17:46 Package sizes.
    1:17:48 How they think about packaging sizes.
    1:17:49 How they think about treasure hunt.
    1:17:52 Because in Costco, there’s always something new.
    1:17:54 How they think about the treasure hunt alley.
    1:17:56 How they think about pricing architecture.
    1:18:02 You know, it’s like Costco would have a unique packaging configuration, which was not really
    1:18:04 comparable to anything out there in the marketplace.
    1:18:06 And why that was important for Costco.
    1:18:12 You know, what is their thinking about how to manage the budget of a family, especially a
    1:18:13 family with two or three kids?
    1:18:14 How do you think about that budget?
    1:18:19 So, for example, we stood at a refrigerated shelf.
    1:18:24 I remember in Port Chester, the store, he and I were walking in and he said, okay, Indra,
    1:18:27 you get to pick a product that I should put into the store.
    1:18:29 Do you have an idea?
    1:18:31 I said, yeah, I gave him an idea.
    1:18:32 I’m not going to tell you what it was.
    1:18:33 I gave him an idea.
    1:18:36 And I thought, you know, in six months, it’ll show up on the shelf.
    1:18:38 Two weeks later, I go to the Costco store.
    1:18:39 It’s there.
    1:18:42 How he got it done in two weeks, I don’t know.
    1:18:44 But it was a huge seller.
    1:18:45 So, I felt relieved.
    1:18:53 But based on the draw of that consumer in that neighborhood, I thought this product would
    1:18:53 do very well.
    1:18:55 But he listened.
    1:18:56 You see that?
    1:19:00 You see how you feel about the fact that the CEO wasn’t just teaching, he’s also learning
    1:19:01 from you.
    1:19:03 And so, I had experiences like that.
    1:19:09 I remember there was a Walmart senior executive, Greg Foran, who was running North America Walmart.
    1:19:12 And he was in Kiwi.
    1:19:15 And he was turning around Walmart, North America.
    1:19:18 People thought he was very difficult.
    1:19:20 And I went to meet him.
    1:19:25 And Doug McMillan, the CEO, told Greg Foran, hey, Indra is a good friend of mine.
    1:19:33 And Greg Foran said, well, if you really want to learn Walmart, follow me on a store tour.
    1:19:37 And, you know, these guys go to a store every day, some region.
    1:19:44 So, Greg would say, I’m going to be in Pittsburgh from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. on the 23rd of March.
    1:19:45 So, I’d fly to Pittsburgh.
    1:19:46 I’d meet him there.
    1:19:53 And my job was just to trail Greg Foran to see how he looked at every aisle, how he looked
    1:19:59 at how clothing should be merchandised, what product was married with what, where did he
    1:20:02 stop and say, redo this entire display for the consumer.
    1:20:06 So, I was learning from Greg Foran, but he allowed me to tail him.
    1:20:08 Okay.
    1:20:10 And so, I felt it was a gift he gave me.
    1:20:13 And at lunchtime, he would only take a half an hour break.
    1:20:15 He said, Dan, he said, tell me what you learned.
    1:20:19 Let me tell you what I think you should have taken away.
    1:20:20 Okay.
    1:20:21 Greg now runs in New Zealand.
    1:20:23 I was in New Zealand a year ago with him.
    1:20:26 We were reflecting on our market experiences.
    1:20:30 He taught me more than I would have learned from anybody.
    1:20:36 But this is the advantage of being open to ideas, open to learning.
    1:20:40 And you can learn a lot from CEOs and become a better person yourself.
    1:20:42 Because at the end of the day, a company does not exist in a vacuum.
    1:20:48 That’s one of the reasons we interview so many CEOs and share your lessons with our audience.
    1:20:52 Is there anything that stands out about what you learned that day walking through Walmart or
    1:20:56 the lunch after where you were sort of, oh, I never thought of it that way?
    1:20:59 You know, how they merchandise T-shirts is dark to light.
    1:21:05 You know, when you hang, let’s say you’re hanging a certain T-shirt, but you’ve got to
    1:21:07 make sure the colors go from dark to light.
    1:21:12 If you mix up all the colors, consumers have a difficulty shopping for a T-shirt.
    1:21:16 He’ll go and stand there and then he’ll look at his team and say, what have you done wrong?
    1:21:20 And, you know, sometimes the guy will have the right answers.
    1:21:21 Sometimes they won’t.
    1:21:24 You got to merchandise it dark to light.
    1:21:31 Or he’ll stand in front of a Frito-Lay aisle and he’ll say to the guys, what do you think
    1:21:32 about this aisle?
    1:21:33 All right.
    1:21:35 And they’ll say, it’s perfect.
    1:21:36 He’ll say, yeah.
    1:21:38 Why isn’t every aisle like the Frito-Lay aisle?
    1:21:41 Because PepsiCo’s merchandised us perfectly.
    1:21:46 Or the best example, I remember we stood in front of a Quaker Roads aisle.
    1:21:52 He’ll pull out four packages of multi-packs, you know, all the different flavors of, he’ll
    1:21:54 put all four packs and he’ll look at me and say, Indra, come here.
    1:21:56 I say, yes, Greg.
    1:21:57 I said, awesome lineup.
    1:21:58 Because in my products, right?
    1:21:59 I own Quaker Roads.
    1:22:07 He’ll say, each of these boxes, they’re three different sizes, but each of these boxes has
    1:22:10 got nine packs, 12 packs, six packs, whatever.
    1:22:13 But the pricing doesn’t reflect the changes.
    1:22:16 You know, why is that?
    1:22:18 And why do I need four different packs?
    1:22:19 Why don’t I just have two?
    1:22:22 And I’m going, but I don’t have the reason.
    1:22:31 But, you know, he’s thinking about how can I get the maximum inventory on these shelves
    1:22:37 that make sense for the consumer, but have price transparency so the consumer is served well.
    1:22:41 And basically what he was pointing out to me is my pricing architecture was messed up.
    1:22:44 And it was causing confusion, I would imagine.
    1:22:49 And even if the consumer didn’t express their confusion, they were probably confused because
    1:22:53 we were confused at that time looking at the four packages, but he would look at it at
    1:22:54 that granular level.
    1:22:55 That’s incredible.
    1:22:58 And, you know, you learn so much and say, guys, hang on.
    1:23:02 When you go back and you look at pricing architecture, you ask people these questions.
    1:23:04 How many SKUs did you put on of Quaker Roads?
    1:23:06 Why do we need 10 SKUs?
    1:23:06 Why not four?
    1:23:09 It’ll simplify the manufacturing operations.
    1:23:12 I think Frito does their own stocking of shelves.
    1:23:13 Do they know?
    1:23:15 Is there a reason behind that?
    1:23:19 Because the velocity is so high and it’s all, you know, air in the bags.
    1:23:23 So if you put it through the warehouse, it’ll take up too much space in the warehouse.
    1:23:29 So we bring it in through the art trucks and our salesmen know how to put the right SKUs
    1:23:30 in the right place on the shelf.
    1:23:34 If Frito-Lay products and beverage products came through the warehouse, they would have to
    1:23:36 build separate buildings just to house those products.
    1:23:38 Because I’ll give you an example.
    1:23:41 A Frito-Lay chip will turn 40, 50 times a year.
    1:23:45 Beverages might turn 60 to 70 times a year.
    1:23:47 Toothpaste turns 12 times a year.
    1:23:50 Cookies turn 10 times a year.
    1:23:53 So, you know, those people, those can come to the warehouse.
    1:23:58 But chips, milk, beverages, very hard to bring it through the warehouse.
    1:24:03 When you look at an aisle of Frito-Lay or PepsiCo products, what draws your attention?
    1:24:04 What do you notice?
    1:24:06 Well, I look for new products.
    1:24:07 Have they been slotted?
    1:24:12 Are the existing workhorses like Alley’s or Doritos got enough facings so the consumer
    1:24:14 knows that they should grab it?
    1:24:17 Is each package neatly crisped and put on the shelf?
    1:24:20 Because that’s the media you own, right?
    1:24:24 When your consumer sees the product on a shelf, that’s the media talking to you.
    1:24:28 So to me, the media you own is very important to the consumer.
    1:24:31 Because the media you rent is your TV and your advertising.
    1:24:33 Many people don’t see it.
    1:24:35 But they see that billboard effect on the aisle.
    1:24:38 So how does your package show up on the shelves?
    1:24:40 Is the right assortment there?
    1:24:41 Can they shop it easily?
    1:24:46 For example, is there a corporate block called Frito-Lay or do you have potato chips, corn chips?
    1:24:48 How would you prefer having it?
    1:24:50 Are the dips next to the chips?
    1:24:52 If something is on deal, is it on an end aisle?
    1:24:55 There’s so many things we look at.
    1:24:57 The Frito-Lay guys do a great job.
    1:24:58 That’s awesome.
    1:25:03 One of the big strategic pivots, I guess, that happened under you is when you were president,
    1:25:05 you sort of outsourced the bottlers.
    1:25:07 And then when you were CEO, you brought them back in.
    1:25:08 Do I have that right?
    1:25:11 Well, you know, when Roger was CEO, we spun out the bottlers.
    1:25:15 In North America, I executed on his direction.
    1:25:18 And at that point, it was the right thing to do.
    1:25:22 But when I became CEO, I realized that the market was growing.
    1:25:23 The bottlers were thriving.
    1:25:29 When the market growth rate slowed down, okay, the pie wasn’t growing, but there were two
    1:25:33 companies, the concentrate company and the bottling company fighting for a larger share
    1:25:34 of that pie.
    1:25:35 It was not constructive.
    1:25:38 We were not serving the customer, but we’re now fighting amongst ourselves.
    1:25:43 I made the hard decision to buy back the bottlers.
    1:25:45 Now it gets back to strategy.
    1:25:47 Sometimes people say, oh, you flip-flops.
    1:25:49 No, the environment changed.
    1:25:53 Remember, I talked to you about you change strategy, the environment changes.
    1:25:56 You cannot be dogmatic about your strategic direction.
    1:26:00 When the environment changes around you, you’ve got to zag a little bit, which is what I did,
    1:26:01 bought back the bottlers.
    1:26:06 Had we not bought the bottlers back at that time in North America, we’d still be fighting
    1:26:08 with the bottlers and the pie would be shrinking.
    1:26:11 Because we’re not serving the consumer, we’re fighting each other.
    1:26:13 So it was tough, but we bought them back.
    1:26:18 But one of the ways that people deal with reality is to be humble.
    1:26:20 You know, that was the best path at the time.
    1:26:22 But that sounds so easy.
    1:26:25 But this is a multi-billion dollar decision.
    1:26:27 The business was a multi-multi-billion dollar business.
    1:26:32 So again, you know people are going to criticize you for flip-flopping.
    1:26:35 People are going to say you took on a more asset-intensive business.
    1:26:37 But was it right for the company?
    1:26:39 Got to put the company before you.
    1:26:43 They might criticize you, but is it right for the company?
    1:26:44 The answer is yes.
    1:26:48 What have you learned about decision-making that you wish more people knew?
    1:26:50 I think many people do it well.
    1:26:53 Decisions are rarely made in a vacuum.
    1:26:58 Decisions are made because you’ve looked at reams of data.
    1:27:04 You’re married with experience, with a little bit of intuition, a lot of counseling with other
    1:27:07 people, a lot of discussions, a lot of input from other people too.
    1:27:13 Don’t underestimate, you know, how much knowledge is resident in your teams and how you can tap
    1:27:14 into it.
    1:27:19 And so I think if you’re willing to incorporate all those points of view into decision-making,
    1:27:21 you’re going to end up with a great decision.
    1:27:24 But you’ve always got to keep one thing in mind.
    1:27:28 If something goes wrong with the decision you made, the blame is yours.
    1:27:32 If it goes well, give it to the team that worked on it.
    1:27:33 Okay?
    1:27:33 Cover for them.
    1:27:35 Provide the air cover.
    1:27:39 But don’t try to take the credit to yourself because the more you take the credit to yourself,
    1:27:41 people will go, she just wants to look good.
    1:27:42 Okay?
    1:27:44 Just say, guys, I’ve got your back.
    1:27:47 We’ve done all the thinking, discussion.
    1:27:49 We’ve looked at this from every perspective.
    1:27:51 Go make it happen.
    1:27:52 If something goes wrong, I got your back.
    1:27:54 Your people feel empowered.
    1:28:01 You were involved in a lot of acquisitions of companies through strategy and through being
    1:28:03 the CEO of PepsiCo.
    1:28:07 Why do so many acquisitions not work out the way that they’re intended?
    1:28:11 First of all, the acquisition logic should be correct.
    1:28:12 Okay?
    1:28:17 Don’t do deals just because it’s sexy to do a deal or you’re trying to buy some short-term
    1:28:19 growth or profitability.
    1:28:22 If you do it for the wrong reason, they will not work out.
    1:28:28 Second, any acquisition, the deal process is just 10% of the whole process.
    1:28:31 The whole work is in the post-merger integration.
    1:28:35 How do you integrate the acquired company into your company?
    1:28:36 How do you extract the synergies?
    1:28:38 How do you build a new culture?
    1:28:40 How do you absorb them?
    1:28:42 People don’t pay enough attention to that.
    1:28:47 And when post-merger integration efforts are not done right, acquisitions do fail.
    1:28:48 And you’ve got to keep that in mind.
    1:28:55 And sometimes acquisitions don’t work because the people that you put in charge of running
    1:28:57 the new company are not competent.
    1:29:02 I think one of the lessons I learned is respect the culture of the company of acquired.
    1:29:03 I’ll give you two examples.
    1:29:09 When we bought Tropicana, the days when there were oranges available in Florida, Roger said
    1:29:10 something very interesting to me.
    1:29:13 He said, it’s a different company.
    1:29:14 It’s a good for you product.
    1:29:22 Don’t allow people from the rest of PepsiCo to go there and put their ideas on a good for
    1:29:24 you business because you’ll mess up that business.
    1:29:29 So he made me go sit down with Ellen Marram, who was running that business, to say, what
    1:29:32 are the rules under which Tropicana should operate?
    1:29:34 Almost their value system.
    1:29:39 And he said, preserve that until this company is mature enough to be called part of PepsiCo.
    1:29:41 Very important lesson.
    1:29:43 The second was when we were buying Quaker Roads.
    1:29:48 It was Bob Morrison was very important to Quaker Roads.
    1:29:50 Which included Gatorade, right?
    1:29:51 Quaker Roads, yeah.
    1:29:55 He said, when we’re buying Quaker Roads, whatever happens, we’re going to do everything possible
    1:29:59 to keep Bob Morrison, at least for the first two years.
    1:30:05 So the onboarding into PepsiCo is done with the way that, you know, we respect their culture
    1:30:06 and they respect us.
    1:30:08 Made a whole lot of difference.
    1:30:13 So I think acquisitions fail when you don’t recognize these pitfalls and don’t address them
    1:30:14 proactively.
    1:30:19 Are there any big mistakes that you made in an acquisition where you’re like, ah, lesson
    1:30:21 learned for next time, but…
    1:30:23 I’m not going to tell you those mistakes, but yeah, of course.
    1:30:28 I mean, we correct them, but yeah, we made mistakes.
    1:30:34 And if the mistakes were made, it’s because I wish we had played out how that market could
    1:30:37 have evolved even more.
    1:30:42 Or I didn’t bring the bottlers in soon enough to talk about how they’re going to carry it on
    1:30:43 the bottling system.
    1:30:49 Or I put it into Frito-Lay, even though it was a good for you product, and somehow it
    1:30:51 became a fun for you product when I wasn’t looking.
    1:30:53 So yeah, we made mistakes.
    1:30:59 The key thing is, where it makes a huge difference and big bucks are involved, be careful.
    1:31:05 Be ultra careful about post-merger integration in people because the cost of failure is very
    1:31:05 high.
    1:31:07 I’m going to ask a question.
    1:31:12 I want to hear your sort of rapid fire response of either behaviors or traits.
    1:31:16 If somebody had an unfair advantage in PepsiCo and they were just constantly knocking it
    1:31:21 out of the park all the time, what would be the behaviors and traits that that person would
    1:31:22 have or the skills?
    1:31:26 They’ve got this uncanny ability to zoom in and zoom out.
    1:31:33 They ask people for opinions and ideas and incorporate them.
    1:31:39 They put their hands up for difficult assignments and learn from difficult assignments.
    1:31:42 They’ve gone through failure in the past.
    1:31:46 People who hit it out of the park have been through a lot of failure and learn from that
    1:31:46 failure.
    1:31:48 They haven’t allowed it to get them down.
    1:31:50 They’ve learned from those failures.
    1:31:55 They pick themselves up, talk about what they learned, fix it the next time and move forward.
    1:31:58 These are people who are typically humble.
    1:32:03 You know, people who hit it out of the park rarely beat their chest and say, I hit it out
    1:32:03 of the park.
    1:32:04 I hit it out of the park.
    1:32:05 Look at me.
    1:32:06 I got to move forward.
    1:32:08 These are people who say, hey, this is what the company needed.
    1:32:09 I did it.
    1:32:12 And PepsiCo had a lot of them.
    1:32:18 Was that almost a reverse signal when people were too braggy about what they’ve done or look
    1:32:19 at me, look what I’ve done.
    1:32:24 And then you just dismissed that because, you know, historically that doesn’t correlate
    1:32:25 really to people who do the work.
    1:32:29 You know, PepsiCo didn’t have too many of these bragging people.
    1:32:36 So I was blessed to run a company where the culture was such that some people might have
    1:32:41 tried to be a bit more out there to take credit, but there were very few people who were
    1:32:42 braggers, really.
    1:32:44 Even Amazon has no braggers.
    1:32:49 Philips, the other company I said on the board of, the MedTech company from the Netherlands,
    1:32:50 not at all.
    1:32:51 Nobody brags.
    1:32:55 Everybody’s talking about what can we do together to move the company forward.
    1:32:58 So I think I’m just lucky to be in these sorts of companies.
    1:33:02 Do you think that there’s an important component to being part of a company?
    1:33:07 And I mentioned this in the sense of maybe COVID or work from home, where it’s really easy
    1:33:09 not to feel part of something larger than yourself.
    1:33:14 But there’s this very human side of us that needs to feel part of something larger than
    1:33:18 ourselves, whether it’s a family or work, that we’re making a difference, that we’re
    1:33:20 contributing to society.
    1:33:22 Does that get lost in work from home, do you think?
    1:33:26 I don’t even know what it is to work from home only.
    1:33:31 To me, if you don’t come to work, interact with other people, understand the culture of
    1:33:32 the company.
    1:33:38 You know, see people in the corridor, toss around ideas, pop your head into a meeting and
    1:33:40 say, hey, I see you guys are working on this.
    1:33:41 Can I help?
    1:33:47 If you don’t have that sort of human interaction, I don’t even know what it is to work in a
    1:33:51 corporation as opposed to doing a job from home, doing an assignment from home, if you
    1:33:52 want to call it that.
    1:33:58 So I grew up at a time when everybody came to work and I loved it.
    1:34:04 So as we went through COVID and post-COVID, I’m struggling to see how I would have run the
    1:34:06 company without people coming to work.
    1:34:11 I’m struggling to see how I would have developed people without seeing them.
    1:34:13 Now, let me come to the other side.
    1:34:18 I also see the benefit of people who choose to work from home because they can now juggle
    1:34:21 more responsibilities working from home.
    1:34:22 So I understand that too.
    1:34:28 However, I’m also of the belief, Shane, that if you choose to work from home, male or female,
    1:34:29 I don’t care.
    1:34:35 If you choose to work from home, you might also want to accept that your promotional challenges
    1:34:39 may be, your promotional opportunities may be limited.
    1:34:42 That was the most controversial tweet I’ve ever put out.
    1:34:45 I put this out, I think, in 2021 or 2022.
    1:34:48 And I said, if you work from home, you’re going to end up reporting to somebody who works
    1:34:48 at the office.
    1:34:51 Unless you’re in a company where only individual contributors.
    1:34:53 just move forward because they’re all super techie.
    1:34:58 But in companies where you really have to work in teams to move things forward, I don’t
    1:35:00 see how you can do it all on Zoom.
    1:35:02 I want to thank you so much for your time today.
    1:35:04 This has been a fascinating interview.
    1:35:08 We always end with the same question, which is, what is success for you?
    1:35:10 Performance with purpose.
    1:35:13 You know, when I ran PepsiCo, I ran it on that motto.
    1:35:20 To me, delivering performance in whatever field is one thing, but you’ve got to leave the place
    1:35:21 better than you found it.
    1:35:27 And you’ve got to do it with a deep sense of, I want to make the world a better place.
    1:35:29 I want to make the company a better company.
    1:35:35 I want to make the employees feel better about themselves than when they, you know, came into
    1:35:37 PepsiCo or had a different leader.
    1:35:42 So at every point in time, how do you have a deep sense of purpose to leave the place better
    1:35:43 than you found it?
    1:35:46 Those are the three words I used as a CEO of PepsiCo.
    1:35:49 Those are the three words that continue to guide what I’m doing today.
    1:35:55 This deep sense of purpose without taking your eye off the core performance you have to deliver.
    1:35:57 Thank you very much.
    1:35:58 That’s a beautiful way to wrap this up.
    1:35:59 Thank you, Shane.
    1:36:01 Thank you for having me on your show.
    1:36:03 It’s a privilege talking with you.
    1:36:06 Thanks for listening and learning with us.
    1:36:10 Be sure to sign up for my free weekly newsletter at fs.blog slash newsletter.
    1:36:15 The Farnham Street website is also where you can get more info on our membership program,
    1:36:21 which includes access to episode transcripts, my repository, ad-free episodes, and more.
    1:36:26 Follow myself and Farnham Street on X, Instagram, and LinkedIn to stay in the loop.
    1:36:29 Plus, you can watch full episodes on our YouTube channel.
    1:36:32 If you like what we’re doing here, leaving a rating and review would mean the world.
    1:36:36 And if you really like us, sharing with a friend is the best way to grow this community.
    1:36:38 Until next time.

    On her first day as CEO of PepsiCo, Indra Nooyi fired her general counsel. Then rehired him before dinner. It wasn’t a stunt. It was a signal. 

    She ran a $200 billion empire the same way she ran her life: with surgical precision, uncompromising standards, and an allergy to corporate theater. But here’s what separates this conversation from every other CEO interview: she tells you what her massive ambition cost her and her family. What it means to carry the hopes of millions who look like you. What happens when a strategy you bet your career on starts to crumble. She reveals her private system for tracking 400 rising stars inside of a corporate giant and the advice Steve Jobs gave her that changed everything. 

    If you’ve ever felt the pull between ambition and identity, this one’s for you. Indra doesn’t just talk about power. She shows what it costs. 

    Approximate timestamps: Subject to variation due to dynamically inserted ads:
    (03:53)Growing Up In India
    (11:07) Lessons From Working In Consulting
    (21:36) Being Direct As A Leader / Delivering A Message That Gets Heard
    (24:14) Developing Talent
    (26:42)How To Minimize Office Politics
    (32:56)Prioritizing Work / Finding Balance
    (37:30)Turnover After A CEO Change
    (42:10) CEO Vs Board Member
    (46:22)Implementable Change In A Company
    (48:17) Removing Friction Instead Of Using Force
    (48:34)How To Be A Good Board Member
    (49:47)Lessons From Amazon
    (51:36) Leading Through Crisis
    (55:18) Dealing With Activist Investors
    (59:13) Women As CEOS / Biases In The Workplace
    (01:00:42) Equality of Opportunity / How To Hire The Best
    (01:03:50)Bias In Performance Reviews
    (01:05:27)Almost Quitting PepsiCo
    (01:07:05)What I Learned From Steve Jobs
    (01:11:51)Lessons From Costco And Walmart
    (01:20:00)Secrets to PepsiCo Merchandising
    (01:21:01)Outsourcing Bottlers At PepsiCo Then Reversing The Decision
    (01:22:16)Making Decisions At A Multi-Billion Dollar Company
    (01:23:56)Lessons From Acquisitions
    (01:27:09) Traits Of A High Performing Employee
    (01:29:01) Remote Work Vs In Office

    Thanks to our sponsors for supporting this episode:

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    Watch on YouTube: ⁠⁠⁠⁠@tkppodcast

  • #233 Outliers: Anna Wintour – Vogue

    AI transcript
    0:00:05 Anna Wintour once looked at photos from a $300,000 fashion shoot
    0:00:09 and killed the entire story without explanation.
    0:00:14 The photographer was Stephen Meisel, now one of fashion’s legends.
    0:00:18 He was so furious, he refused to work with her for years.
    0:00:21 Today, he credits her with making him better.
    0:00:24 This is the Anna Wintour paradox.
    0:00:27 She’s fired assistants for poor clothing choices.
    0:00:31 She’s made editors stand during meetings because sitting wastes time.
    0:00:34 When asked what job she wanted once, she replied, yours.
    0:00:37 And the meeting ended abruptly.
    0:00:39 She got the job anyway.
    0:00:43 For 40 years, people have been predicting her downfall.
    0:00:47 She’s too harsh, too demanding, too unwilling to compromise.
    0:00:49 Meanwhile, she keeps getting promoted.
    0:00:53 At 75, she now runs every magazine at Condé Nast.
    0:00:56 Because Anna figured out something most leaders never learn.
    0:01:02 In a world awash in mediocrity, maintaining standards looks unreasonable.
    0:01:05 But standards are also the only moat that matters.
    0:01:08 And if you want to understand how a British girl who couldn’t type
    0:01:11 built the most bulletproof career in media,
    0:01:13 and what that means for your own ambitions,
    0:01:15 you need to hear this story.
    0:01:30 Welcome to the Knowledge Project.
    0:01:32 I’m your host, Shane Parrish.
    0:01:34 In a world where knowledge is power,
    0:01:38 this podcast is your toolkit for mastering the best of what other people have already figured out.
    0:01:45 Anna Wintour got fired for refusing to compromise her vision.
    0:01:47 The magazine that fired her?
    0:01:47 It’s dead.
    0:01:48 Anna?
    0:01:52 She runs every magazine at Condé Nast, including Vogue at age 75.
    0:02:00 This is the story of how a British girl who couldn’t type or so built the most powerful position in global media,
    0:02:05 then made it impossible for anyone else to take it away by continuously reinventing herself.
    0:02:08 Here’s what a lot of people get wrong about power.
    0:02:10 They think it’s about climbing ladders.
    0:02:13 Anna understood it’s about building the ladder itself.
    0:02:16 While her competitors fought for promotions, she built infrastructure.
    0:02:19 While they protected magazines, she created platforms.
    0:02:23 While they pleased bosses, she made bosses need her.
    0:02:24 The result?
    0:02:29 Four decades at the top of an industry that reinvents itself every five years.
    0:02:33 She survived the death of print, the digital revolution, the great financial crisis,
    0:02:38 the social media transformation, and a pandemic that killed most of her competitors.
    0:02:38 How?
    0:02:43 By mastering the principles that sound simple, but almost nobody executes.
    0:02:50 First, she figured out that being fired for your uncompromising standards is very different than being fired for your performance.
    0:02:51 One is failure.
    0:02:52 The other is intelligence.
    0:03:02 Second, she learned that in creative industries, speed beats perfection because perfection without deadlines is just procrastination with better excuses.
    0:03:08 Third, she discovered that real power comes from making yourself essential to multiple systems simultaneously.
    0:03:10 Even if one fails, you survive.
    0:03:19 This episode draws from Amy O’Dell’s definitive biography to reveal how Anna transformed from fashion assistant to cultural kingmaker.
    0:03:28 But more importantly, it extracts the repeatable lessons and strategies that she used, strategies that you can apply whether you’re building a career, a company, or an empire.
    0:03:31 Her greatest insight wasn’t about fashion.
    0:03:35 It was understanding how to get the best out of herself and others.
    0:03:38 It’s time to listen and learn.
    0:03:53 When Anna was two, her 10-year-old brother, Gerald, died in a cycling accident.
    0:03:56 Her mother installed window bars and never spoke of him again.
    0:03:58 The family moved forward.
    0:03:59 No pictures, no mentions.
    0:04:00 Just forward.
    0:04:02 This is how the Wintors operated.
    0:04:07 Her father, Charles, edited the evening standard with surgical precision.
    0:04:09 Staff writers froze when he passed.
    0:04:14 They called him Chili Charlie, though they would work themselves to exhaustion for his approval.
    0:04:16 Anna never understood the nickname.
    0:04:19 It had nothing to do with the person he was, she’d insist.
    0:04:22 The same words would follow Anna her entire career.
    0:04:27 In a household that prized academic achievement, Anna chose a different education.
    0:04:31 Her siblings devoured political theory at Oxford and Cambridge.
    0:04:37 Anna devoured fashion magazines, eight newspapers every weekend, every fashion publication she could find.
    0:04:45 While her siblings prepared for careers in law and social causes, she studied hemlines and cultural shifts with scholarly intensity.
    0:04:51 I was so desperate to get out in the world and get on with things, she explained about leaving school at 16.
    0:04:55 Her family found her fascination with fashion incomprehensible.
    0:05:01 I’ve always been a joke in my family, Anna later admitted, they’d always thought I’m deeply unserious.
    0:05:07 The irony is that Anna’s unserious pursuit required more discipline than any degree.
    0:05:09 She wasn’t avoiding rigor, but applying it differently.
    0:05:14 Fashion was cultural anthropology, business strategy, and visual communication.
    0:05:15 Full stop.
    0:05:17 Every magazine was a textbook.
    0:05:19 Every trend was data.
    0:05:25 In the face of my brother’s and sister’s academic success, I felt I was rather a failure, she recalled.
    0:05:31 Anna, like so many of our outliers, and perhaps like you yourself, felt overlooked and underestimated.
    0:05:33 She would turn it into rocket fuel.
    0:05:38 While her siblings shaped policy and law, she would shape how power itself presented to the world.
    0:05:45 What her family couldn’t see, because it didn’t look like what they expected, was that Anna was a learning machine.
    0:05:50 This commitment to vacuuming up everything about fashion, it was building mastery.
    0:05:53 Anna’s father, Charles, believed in his daughter.
    0:05:57 When 16-year-old Anna needed to list her career objectives, he didn’t hesitate.
    0:06:01 Well, you write, you want to be the editor of Vogue, of course.
    0:06:05 Not work in fashion, not try magazine.
    0:06:06 Editor of Vogue.
    0:06:07 The apex.
    0:06:11 Named with the same certainty that you’d write your own address.
    0:06:13 Most people aim for realistic.
    0:06:17 The exceptional, name their destination, and work backwards.
    0:06:21 Anna had two advantages most pretend don’t matter.
    0:06:22 Connections and cash.
    0:06:30 Her grandparents’ trust fund paid out $120,000 in today’s money over six years, exactly what her siblings spent on university.
    0:06:32 Anna invested that tuition differently.
    0:06:35 While they bought credentials, she bought time.
    0:06:38 Time to take an unpaid internship.
    0:06:40 Time to say no to the wrong opportunities.
    0:06:42 Time to wait for the right ones.
    0:06:44 Her father made one phone call.
    0:06:47 The Evening Standards fashion editor took Anna to lunch.
    0:06:50 Barbara Griggs expected to mentor an eager teenager.
    0:06:53 Instead, she met someone who already knew exactly where she was going.
    0:06:56 All she wanted from me was some information.
    0:07:01 What she didn’t want at all was any guidance or tips on how to manage her career.
    0:07:02 That certainty at 16?
    0:07:05 Most people don’t even have that at 40.
    0:07:10 Willie Landells at Harper’s Bazaar hired Anna because of her father’s reputation.
    0:07:15 Anyone connected to such a respected newspaper was worth a shot, he figured.
    0:07:17 Here’s where privilege meets performance.
    0:07:19 Yes, her name opened the door.
    0:07:21 But what happened once she walked through?
    0:07:22 That was all Anna.
    0:07:25 The real advantage isn’t the door that opens.
    0:07:28 It’s knowing exactly what to do once you’re inside.
    0:07:30 Harper’s operated on a skeleton crew.
    0:07:33 Three people running the fashion pages.
    0:07:35 No budget for coffee fetchers.
    0:07:36 Everyone did everything.
    0:07:39 I was thrown into my career, frankly, with ignorance.
    0:07:42 I knew nothing, Anna later admitted.
    0:07:43 Perfect.
    0:07:48 While her peers at bigger magazines were filling in expense reports and grabbing coffee,
    0:07:50 Anna was learning the entire business.
    0:07:53 I learned how to go into market and choose clothes.
    0:07:54 I learned how to choose talent.
    0:07:56 I learned how to collaborate.
    0:07:57 I learned how to do a layout.
    0:07:59 I learned how to write a caption.
    0:08:02 She wasn’t afforded the luxury of specializing.
    0:08:05 She had to learn every job in detail.
    0:08:07 Anna had three qualities that mattered.
    0:08:10 Taste, organization, and certainty.
    0:08:11 She never forgot her dress.
    0:08:13 Never lost jewelry.
    0:08:14 Never second-guessed decisions.
    0:08:16 People may not always like it,
    0:08:20 but they knew exactly what she thought and what was expected from them.
    0:08:23 Sounds a lot like Steve Jobs and Elon Musk.
    0:08:25 Her editor noticed something else.
    0:08:27 Anna could spot talent before it had a name.
    0:08:31 She’d book unknown photographers who’d become famous.
    0:08:33 She’d champion designers others ignored.
    0:08:35 This wasn’t luck.
    0:08:37 Remember those eight newspapers every weekend?
    0:08:39 Those thousands of magazine pages?
    0:08:40 She wasn’t just reading.
    0:08:43 She was building a mental repository.
    0:08:45 When Anna saw a new photographer’s work,
    0:08:49 her brain compared it against millions of images she’d studied.
    0:08:50 When she met a designer,
    0:08:54 she measured them against every trend she’d ever tracked.
    0:08:56 Pattern recognition can’t be taught.
    0:09:00 It can only be earned through obsessive accumulation of high-quality inputs.
    0:09:04 Most people want to trust their gut without feeding it the right things first.
    0:09:07 Then came the moment that defined her aesthetic forever.
    0:09:09 Christmas, 1971.
    0:09:16 Anna styled a shot mixing a $2,000 white fox coat with a $29 wicker chair.
    0:09:18 Diamonds with democracy.
    0:09:20 Luxury with accessibility.
    0:09:23 Everyone else segregated high and low.
    0:09:25 Anna smashed them together.
    0:09:30 The insight she had was that aspiration without accessibility is just snobbery.
    0:09:33 Accessibility without aspiration is just a commodity.
    0:09:36 The magic lives in the tension between the two.
    0:09:41 That high-low mix would become her signature and eventually fashion’s default language.
    0:09:45 But first she had to survive long enough to impose it on the world.
    0:09:48 Anna’s assistant, Claire Hastings,
    0:09:52 got a front row seat to what extreme standards actually look like in practice.
    0:09:54 Anna wasn’t warm.
    0:09:56 She didn’t explain much.
    0:09:57 But Hastings noticed something.
    0:10:01 Anna was obsessively invested in her success.
    0:10:05 Not through pep talks, but through the intolerance for mediocrity.
    0:10:08 Every borrowed item needed to be returned perfect.
    0:10:10 Down to the original tissue paper.
    0:10:11 A missing button.
    0:10:12 Unacceptable.
    0:10:13 A wrinkled collar.
    0:10:15 Career ending.
    0:10:17 This wasn’t about the clothes.
    0:10:22 It was about proving you could be trusted with the details before being trusted with the decisions.
    0:10:25 Outliers share unreasonable standards.
    0:10:28 Standards aren’t what you accept from others.
    0:10:30 They’re what you demand from yourself when no one’s watching.
    0:10:33 Then there was the lunch table incident.
    0:10:35 Eight people ordered wine and steaks.
    0:10:37 Anna, just a yogurt, please.
    0:10:39 The table froze.
    0:10:41 Everyone was suddenly questioning their orders.
    0:10:43 She wasn’t performing discipline.
    0:10:49 She’d internalized it so completely that normal behavior looked like an excuse by comparison.
    0:10:51 Her steak had to be perfectly rare.
    0:10:54 She’d send it back three times and then eat two bites.
    0:11:01 Not because she was being difficult, but accepting good enough in small things trains you to accept it in big things.
    0:11:04 Steve Jobs sent back sushi at his own birthday party.
    0:11:06 Elon sleeps on the floor of the factory.
    0:11:09 Outliers don’t have work-life balance.
    0:11:11 They have standards that follow them everywhere.
    0:11:14 The talent scout in Anna was brutal.
    0:11:16 Photographers lined up for go-sees.
    0:11:16 Bad work?
    0:11:18 She’d look away mid-sentence.
    0:11:19 Thank you.
    0:11:20 No feedback.
    0:11:21 No false hope.
    0:11:23 Just cutthroat rejection.
    0:11:26 But when she spotted genius, total commitment.
    0:11:31 One photographer showed up and staff described him as some madman with boxes of shoes.
    0:11:36 Anna saw what others missed, gave him his first major endorsement.
    0:11:41 James Wedge, a hat maker trying photography, Anna booked him repeatedly until he had a career.
    0:11:48 By 1974, Anna was doing half the major shoots, maintaining standards that made everyone else look casual.
    0:11:53 When they fired her superior for someone with writing background, Anna expected the promotion.
    0:11:59 The lesson she was about to learn, having the higher standards doesn’t guarantee recognition.
    0:12:01 It only guarantees you’ll deserve it.
    0:12:04 Are you crushing your bills?
    0:12:06 Defeating your monthly payments.
    0:12:09 Sounds like you’re at the top of your financial game.
    0:12:14 Rise to it with the BMO Eclipse Rise Visa Card.
    0:12:17 The credit card that rewards your good financial habits.
    0:12:22 Earn points for paying your credit card bill in full and on time every month.
    0:12:25 Level up from bill payer to reward slayer.
    0:12:26 Terms and conditions apply.
    0:12:31 Hit pause on whatever you’re listening to and hit play on your next adventure.
    0:12:35 Stay three nights this summer at Best Western and get $50 off a future stay.
    0:12:36 Life’s the trip.
    0:12:38 Make the most of it at Best Western.
    0:12:41 Visit bestwestern.com for complete terms and conditions.
    0:12:46 They gave Anna’s promotion to Min Hogg, a textiles expert who wrote features.
    0:12:49 Anna had been doing the actual job.
    0:12:51 Min had been writing about fabrics.
    0:12:52 Anna got a new title.
    0:12:54 Deputy fashion editor.
    0:12:55 Corporate translation.
    0:12:56 Please don’t quit.
    0:12:59 Here’s where character reveals itself.
    0:13:00 Anna didn’t complain.
    0:13:01 She didn’t confront.
    0:13:03 She didn’t leak to gossip columns.
    0:13:06 Instead, she let her work create unbearable contrast.
    0:13:11 Every shoot she produced made Min’s inadequacy more visible.
    0:13:16 Min would have realized pretty soon that Anna didn’t think much of her work, Hastings observed.
    0:13:20 When you maintain exceptional standards, you don’t need to attack mediocrity.
    0:13:22 It exposes itself.
    0:13:26 After months of this passive war, Anna pulled Hastings aside.
    0:13:28 It’s outrageous I haven’t been made fashion editor.
    0:13:29 I’m resigning.
    0:13:31 Are you going to stay?
    0:13:36 No, said Hastings, who quit in solidarity despite having no backup plan.
    0:13:38 Study that moment for a sec.
    0:13:40 Anna did not negotiate.
    0:13:41 She didn’t threaten.
    0:13:43 She didn’t give them time to counteroffer.
    0:13:44 She just left.
    0:13:49 While others might not have believed in her as much as she believed in herself, it didn’t matter.
    0:13:53 She was going to bet on herself and she was going to go all in.
    0:13:59 Five years of vacuuming up every detail of the fashion business from inside.
    0:14:00 Building relationships.
    0:14:01 Developing her aesthetic.
    0:14:03 Proving results.
    0:14:07 When the system failed to reward merit, she didn’t try to fix the system.
    0:14:09 She rejected it.
    0:14:14 With passport in hand, she aimed for New York, where talent mattered more than tenure, where
    0:14:18 hunger beat hierarchy, and where results spoke louder than words.
    0:14:23 The girl who couldn’t type was about to teach Manhattan how power really works.
    0:14:26 New York, 1975.
    0:14:28 25, no job.
    0:14:30 Just confidence in herself.
    0:14:36 I felt quite isolated growing up in England, with it being such a class-driven culture, Anna
    0:14:36 explained.
    0:14:41 Everyone in New York is from somewhere else, and that creates a very positive force.
    0:14:44 America promised meritocracy.
    0:14:46 Anna would test that promise.
    0:14:49 Harper’s hired her as junior editor.
    0:14:52 Day one, she broke every rule of the American fashion authority.
    0:14:54 The industry equation was simple.
    0:14:55 Drama equals competence.
    0:14:58 Polly Mellon at Vogue cried of her photos she loved.
    0:15:02 Gloria Monker at Bazaar threw shoes at assistance.
    0:15:03 Emotion was currency.
    0:15:05 Anna stayed quiet.
    0:15:06 She watched.
    0:15:06 She processed.
    0:15:08 It was a smart move.
    0:15:12 A special projects editor observed the new hire during a photo shoot in Jamaica and wondered,
    0:15:14 have we hired the wrong person?
    0:15:19 Anna’s job was to command the set with authority, but she just stayed in the background.
    0:15:24 This confused magazine’s leadership, but not the crew, who preferred working with someone
    0:15:27 who didn’t feel the need to interfere with every detail.
    0:15:29 For them, she was a breath of fresh air.
    0:15:34 Years later, she would say, I’m a big believer in hiring talented people and giving them the
    0:15:34 freedom to work.
    0:15:37 People work better when they have responsibility.
    0:15:41 There are two kinds of power, the kind that announces itself and the kind that doesn’t
    0:15:41 need to.
    0:15:44 And as we’ll see, Anna actually has a bit of both.
    0:15:48 Her real revolution wasn’t style, it was substance.
    0:15:50 Her assistant discovered something unprecedented.
    0:15:56 She’d really had no qualms about being completely focused to the point of being very abrupt, seemingly
    0:15:58 rude because she just didn’t have the time.
    0:16:03 She was on her path to what she needed to do, period, the end.
    0:16:06 No small talk, no office politics, just work.
    0:16:12 In an industry built on relationships and feelings, Anna introduced something radical, pure efficiency.
    0:16:15 She wasn’t cold, she was clear.
    0:16:18 Every interaction had a purpose or it didn’t happen.
    0:16:23 In addressing her tough reputation much later, she would say, if one comes across sometimes
    0:16:28 as being cold or brusque, it’s simply because I’m striving for the best.
    0:16:32 Most people organize their entire lives around being liked by nearly everyone.
    0:16:34 They don’t want to offend anyone.
    0:16:37 Outliers have the courage to be disliked.
    0:16:41 The British girl who couldn’t break through England’s class ceiling was about to crack
    0:16:45 America’s code, not by playing the game better, but by refusing to play at all.
    0:16:47 Anna was devoted to work.
    0:16:51 In an office, people kind of clown around and they take breaks and they gossip.
    0:16:53 And she never did any of that.
    0:16:55 She wasn’t in it for fun and games.
    0:16:56 She was in it to work.
    0:17:01 While colleagues treated jobs as social clubs with deadlines, Anna treated the office like
    0:17:07 a laboratory every day, impeccably dressed, not vanity, but strategy in fashion.
    0:17:09 Your appearance is your argument.
    0:17:15 Her boss, Tony Missoula wanted traditional shoots, advertiser friendly, text heavy, safe.
    0:17:17 Anna wanted revolution.
    0:17:20 When they clashed, she didn’t argue, at least not directly.
    0:17:25 Instead, she would meet photographers in the lobby, select only the best shots, hide the rest.
    0:17:28 When Tony asked for alternatives, Anna would shrug.
    0:17:30 Sorry, there aren’t any more.
    0:17:33 Tony’s choice, accept her vision or pay for expensive reshoots.
    0:17:35 Budgets were tight.
    0:17:36 Anna knew this.
    0:17:37 Anna won.
    0:17:40 When Tony berated her, Anna stayed silent.
    0:17:41 A colleague noticed.
    0:17:43 She knew she could go on to other things.
    0:17:45 She knew damn well she wanted to run Vogue.
    0:17:50 Harper’s wasn’t the end of the line, but more importantly, she also didn’t treat it as a
    0:17:51 stepping stone either.
    0:17:52 She was present.
    0:17:53 She was all in.
    0:17:54 She gave it her all.
    0:17:58 While everyone else fought daily battles, Anna was mapping the entire war.
    0:18:00 They were playing for Friday.
    0:18:02 She was playing for Vogue.
    0:18:03 And then Paris happened.
    0:18:07 Anna returned with photos that broke every rule.
    0:18:13 When Tony later fired Anna for being too European, he was essentially firing her for having a point
    0:18:13 of view.
    0:18:18 Years later, after Anna conquered fashion, Tony would deny that he ever happened.
    0:18:21 History, as they say, is written by the winners.
    0:18:24 At the time, I didn’t know what he meant, Anna reflected.
    0:18:28 But in retrospect, I think he meant I was obstinate, that I wouldn’t take direction.
    0:18:32 Years later, Anna conquered fashion and Tony denied firing her.
    0:18:36 Anna would reflect on this years later and say everyone should get sacked at least once in their
    0:18:39 career because perfection doesn’t exist.
    0:18:43 The lesson, getting fired for your standards is different than getting fired for your performance.
    0:18:44 One is failure.
    0:18:46 The other is reconnaissance.
    0:18:51 Despite the setback, she was confident in her vision and confident in herself.
    0:18:53 Anna took a job at Viva magazine.
    0:18:54 The owner?
    0:18:55 The Penthouse publisher.
    0:18:58 A porn king trying to make feminist fashion content.
    0:19:03 Stores hid Viva behind the counters next to the adult magazines.
    0:19:05 Anna didn’t care.
    0:19:09 I needed a job and Viva offered me an enormous amount of freedom.
    0:19:12 The editor, Alma Moore, saw Anna clearly.
    0:19:14 This woman knows what she wants, but she’s going to be difficult.
    0:19:16 She hired her anyway.
    0:19:21 Smart leaders know that difficult people often produce the best work in the right environment.
    0:19:26 At Viva, Anna spent hours studying French L, Italian Vogue.
    0:19:27 No one questioned her vision.
    0:19:30 No committees, no interference, just pure freedom.
    0:19:33 The receptionist observed she was always her own person,
    0:19:38 didn’t really listen to any structure because, whether she was or not, she was the boss.
    0:19:39 Here’s what everyone missed.
    0:19:43 Working at a disreputable place meant no one was watching.
    0:19:45 With no one watching, Anna could do anything.
    0:19:47 She could experiment.
    0:19:48 She could push the limits.
    0:19:49 She could play.
    0:19:53 She’d promise boutiques front page placement for lending clothes,
    0:19:56 promise advertisers their pieces would be shot.
    0:19:57 The clothes kept coming.
    0:19:58 The ads kept selling.
    0:20:02 While her peers fought for assistant positions at respectable magazines,
    0:20:06 Anna was running her own fashion laboratory at a publication funded by porn.
    0:20:09 Sometimes the worst address can have the best classroom.
    0:20:12 At Viva, Anna developed her signature aesthetic.
    0:20:16 Photographs that made you want to become the person wearing the clothes.
    0:20:21 Models in country settings with chunky sweaters and inexplicably bows and arrows.
    0:20:23 It shouldn’t have worked, but it did.
    0:20:25 She pushed farther than anyone dared.
    0:20:28 One spread featured S&M-inspired photography.
    0:20:30 It was way out there, her colleagues said.
    0:20:32 Nobody did anything like that.
    0:20:37 When you’re already at a controversial magazine, you can push farther than anyone thought possible.
    0:20:38 She was playing.
    0:20:40 Her process was military precise, though.
    0:20:42 Everything was planned in advance.
    0:20:43 Rapid fire fittings.
    0:20:45 The model put on an outfit.
    0:20:47 Anna says, okay, next.
    0:20:48 No deliberation.
    0:20:48 No committee.
    0:20:50 Just decisions.
    0:20:51 Then came the test.
    0:20:56 Her publisher wanted to save money by using penthouse centerfolds as fashion models.
    0:20:57 Anna’s response?
    0:20:58 No.
    0:20:59 She walked away.
    0:21:02 Cheryl Rickson, one of those models, understood.
    0:21:04 Working with centerfolds didn’t serve her ambition.
    0:21:07 We all know she wanted to be fashion editor of Vogue.
    0:21:10 Standards aren’t standards if they’re negotiable.
    0:21:12 They’re absolute or they’re not standards.
    0:21:13 The miracle?
    0:21:15 People started paying attention.
    0:21:21 Alexander Lieberman, who ran Condé Nast and controlled Vogue, mentioned to Vogue’s editor,
    0:21:23 I love Vogue.
    0:21:25 I noticed you have an Englishwoman on the masthead.
    0:21:31 For three years, Anna transformed Vogue’s fashion pages into the required reading at Vogue and Harper’s.
    0:21:37 The porn magazine nobody respected was teaching the fashion establishment how to shoot.
    0:21:39 Excellence is excellence.
    0:21:41 The platform is just context.
    0:21:46 November 17th, 1978, Viva announces it’s closing tomorrow.
    0:21:50 Anna starts sobbing, shocking colleagues who thought she didn’t care.
    0:21:51 She wasn’t crying for the magazine.
    0:21:56 She was mourning the loss of her laboratory, the first place she had had total control.
    0:22:00 For 18 months, Anna disappeared into what fashion people called the wilderness,
    0:22:05 jet-setting with her boyfriend from Paris to Jamaica to the south of France,
    0:22:07 her only real break from work since age 16.
    0:22:10 But Ambition doesn’t like vacations.
    0:22:15 When she returned to New York in 1980, Savvy magazine called the magazine for executive women.
    0:22:17 Anna needed work.
    0:22:18 She took it.
    0:22:19 The problem was immediate.
    0:22:24 Savvy appealed to women who’d fought through the 70s to make partner at law firms,
    0:22:27 women who hid their femininity like a liability.
    0:22:32 But Anna had built her entire career making femininity a superpower.
    0:22:38 Editor Judith Daniels wanted real people instead of models, practical office clothes, reasonable prices.
    0:22:42 Anna nodded in meetings and then shot exactly what she wanted.
    0:22:47 Anna was very strong-minded and she just did whatever she wanted, the executive editor recalled.
    0:22:50 Daniels tried to fire her, but Anna had learned something.
    0:22:51 How to talk her way out of trouble.
    0:22:54 She bought some time to job hunt while getting paid.
    0:22:56 Then came humiliation.
    0:22:58 March 18th, 1981.
    0:23:04 Anna pitches interview magazine, Andy Warhol’s glamorous publication, an idea she spent three months developing.
    0:23:08 The editor looked at it for one second and said,
    0:23:12 Anna cries right there in his office.
    0:23:14 And then she leaves for her next appointment.
    0:23:19 When you believe in yourself completely, rejection is data, not a verdict.
    0:23:25 That persistence paid off when Laurie Jones at New York Magazine called in early 1981.
    0:23:31 Jones was desperate to fill a fashion editor position that required someone to basically run a one-person fashion department
    0:23:38 attending shows, selecting clothes, booking photographers, managing shoots, do everything, deliver weekly.
    0:23:45 Anna shows up to the interview with storyboards, complete with Polaroids, layouts, fully realized ideas, not hopes, but plans.
    0:23:47 Anna, this is fabulous.
    0:23:50 I like every one of these story ideas, Jones said.
    0:23:52 She rushed editor-in-chief Edward Cosner.
    0:23:54 Ed, this woman is amazing.
    0:23:56 We’re all going to be working for her someday.
    0:23:59 Cosner laughed and hired her.
    0:24:02 Most people prepare for interviews by thinking about answers.
    0:24:04 Outliers show up with solutions.
    0:24:06 It’s the same with cold emails today.
    0:24:09 Don’t tell someone how you would solve their problems.
    0:24:12 If you want to get noticed, just solve their problem.
    0:24:16 At New York Magazine, Anna finally had a budget to match ambition.
    0:24:18 Want to shoot a $20,000 sable coat?
    0:24:19 Approved.
    0:24:22 Need the best photographers to compete with the times?
    0:24:22 Done.
    0:24:26 They recognized talent and they gave her room and an environment to execute.
    0:24:30 Her first story, Summer Dresses, on a tilted Manhattan rooftop,
    0:24:34 making the Empire State Building appear to dance behind the models.
    0:24:37 Every fashion editor in the city was shooting straight.
    0:24:39 Anna was tilting reality.
    0:24:41 But her standards remained brutal.
    0:24:45 When one of her assistants styled her for shoot with photographer Stephen Meisel,
    0:24:47 Anna killed it without explanation.
    0:24:50 Didn’t matter was her assistant’s big break.
    0:24:51 Didn’t matter Meisel was talented.
    0:24:53 Standards were standards.
    0:24:56 And Anna’s standards to nearly everyone appeared unreasonable.
    0:25:01 And also, just like Steve Jobs, that made everyone work harder and be better
    0:25:04 and pulled out the best version of themselves.
    0:25:08 Meisel was so enraged, he would refuse to work with Anna for years.
    0:25:10 He’d become one of fashion’s greatest photographers.
    0:25:11 Anna didn’t care.
    0:25:13 She wasn’t there to collect friends.
    0:25:14 She was there to win.
    0:25:18 This reminds me so much of Michael Jordan, who said in the last dance,
    0:25:21 I pulled people along when they didn’t want to be pulled.
    0:25:24 I challenged people when they didn’t want to be challenged.
    0:25:30 And I earned that right because my teammates who came after me didn’t endure all the things
    0:25:30 that I endured.
    0:25:34 Once you joined the team, you lived at a certain standard that I played the game,
    0:25:36 and I wasn’t going to take anything less.
    0:25:40 Now, if that meant I had to go in there and get on you a bit, then I did that.
    0:25:44 You ask all my teammates, the one thing about Michael Jordan was he never asked me to do
    0:25:46 something that he didn’t do.
    0:25:50 When people see this, they’re going to say, well, he wasn’t really a nice guy.
    0:25:51 He may have been a tyrant.
    0:25:54 Well, that’s you, because you never won anything.
    0:25:58 I wanted to win, but I wanted them to win and be a part of that as well.
    0:26:00 Look, I don’t have to do this.
    0:26:02 I’m only doing it because it’s who I am.
    0:26:03 That’s how I played the game.
    0:26:05 That was my mentality.
    0:26:08 If you don’t want to play that way, don’t play that way.
    0:26:11 Jordan could have easily been talking about Anna.
    0:26:14 At New York Magazine, Anna wasn’t just editing fashion.
    0:26:15 She was playing at the highest standard.
    0:26:19 And if you wanted to be a part of it, you needed to bring your A-game every day.
    0:26:21 No exceptions.
    0:26:25 Polly Mellon at Vogue had been watching Anna since London.
    0:26:31 She thought Vogue was getting boring and arranged a meeting with editor-in-chief Grace Mirabella.
    0:26:34 Mirabella called Anna and asked what position she wanted at Vogue.
    0:26:35 Anna’s answer?
    0:26:36 Yours.
    0:26:39 The meeting ended immediately.
    0:26:45 Most people hide their ambitions and Anna just announced hers and let the world adjust.
    0:26:47 But the real power wasn’t Mirabella.
    0:26:51 It was Alexander Lieberman, Conde Nast’s editorial director.
    0:26:56 Art director by day, wielding massive steel sculptures on weekends, he collected talent like
    0:26:57 others collected art.
    0:27:03 In August of 1983, Anna publishes a story where 12 artists create paintings inspired by fashion.
    0:27:09 Lieberman sees it and recognizes a kindred spirit, someone who understood fashion as high art,
    0:27:10 not just commerce.
    0:27:13 He invites Anna to his Connecticut estate.
    0:27:17 She shows up in what he called a wonderful, simple, gray tunic.
    0:27:20 Not trying to impress, just being precisely herself.
    0:27:23 I was absolutely enchanted with her, Lieberman would say.
    0:27:24 His problem?
    0:27:27 Mirabella was successfully running Vogue.
    0:27:31 So his solution was to create a fake job, creative director.
    0:27:37 A made-up title that made Anna second on the masthead with deliberately vague responsibilities.
    0:27:38 And I took it.
    0:27:42 She wasn’t a number two person, but she also understood chess.
    0:27:45 She would change tactics, but not her dream.
    0:27:48 For three years, she was officially Mirabella’s deputy.
    0:27:49 Actually, she was Lieberman’s protege.
    0:27:54 Learning the operation, building the relationships, waiting, preparing.
    0:27:59 Mirabella later wrote that Anna would sit in meetings, shaking her head, obviously disagreeing
    0:28:00 with everything I said.
    0:28:01 Anna wasn’t being insubordinate.
    0:28:03 She was being inevitable.
    0:28:09 In 1985, British Vogue editor Beatrix Miller stepped down after 21 years.
    0:28:11 Anna was offered the job.
    0:28:12 She’s pregnant.
    0:28:14 She hesitates a little bit, and then she takes it.
    0:28:17 She needs to prove that she can run something.
    0:28:22 Anna walks into British Vogue and detonates, fires most of the staff, demands shorter skirts,
    0:28:25 injects an energy that had been missing for decades.
    0:28:29 The British press nicknamed her Nuclear Winter.
    0:28:30 She doesn’t care.
    0:28:35 Circulation climbs, profits soar, British designers get discovered.
    0:28:39 The first rule of transformation, you can’t renovate a house with people still living in
    0:28:39 it.
    0:28:41 Two years later, she’s proven her point.
    0:28:46 When House and Garden’s editorship opens in New York, Anna takes it, not because she wants
    0:28:50 to edit home decor, because it’s her ticket back to America and closer to Vogue.
    0:28:53 At House and Garden, she renames it HG.
    0:28:58 Anna adds fashion shoots to a decorating magazine, replaces anonymous rich people’s homes with
    0:29:00 celebrity features.
    0:29:05 Readers revolt, advertisers flee, subscription cancellations require a dedicated phone line.
    0:29:09 She would do things that people have never done before and that alienated some people, a
    0:29:11 feature’s editor observed.
    0:29:14 But Anna wasn’t trying to save House and Garden.
    0:29:18 She was auditioning for Cy Newhouse and Alexander Lieberman.
    0:29:20 The magazine was her performance space.
    0:29:26 Years later, every decor magazine would copy what Anna tried at HG, voyeuristic glimpses into
    0:29:30 celebrity homes instead of furniture catalogs.
    0:29:32 She was right, just a little bit early.
    0:29:35 But by then, she’d have bigger things to transform.
    0:29:42 Just as the criticism at HG was starting to die down, Grace Mirabella’s 37 years at Vogue
    0:29:42 were ending.
    0:29:44 She just didn’t know it.
    0:29:47 Newhouse and Lieberman had decided by summer of 1988.
    0:29:52 They kept Anna in endless planning meetings while she pretended everything was normal at HG.
    0:29:55 June 28th, 1988.
    0:29:57 Mirabella’s husband calls her.
    0:30:00 He just saw gossip colonist Liz Smith on television.
    0:30:04 Anna Wintour will replace his wife as editor-in-chief of Vogue.
    0:30:06 Mirabella goes to Lieberman’s office.
    0:30:07 He’s waiting.
    0:30:11 Grace, he says, I’m afraid it’s true.
    0:30:14 37 years, dismissed via gossip column.
    0:30:17 Power transitions are never elegant.
    0:30:18 They’re either swift or sloppy.
    0:30:19 Never both.
    0:30:20 Anna was prepared.
    0:30:25 She spent three years studying Vogue’s operations from the inside, learning its weaknesses, building
    0:30:26 her network.
    0:30:33 While Mirabella finished her final two weeks, Anna summoned all 120 Vogue staff to her HG office.
    0:30:35 One by one, brief interviews.
    0:30:37 Three days later, 90 people remained.
    0:30:39 When you finally get power, use it immediately.
    0:30:41 Hesitation invites resistance.
    0:30:47 17 years after her father wrote editor of Vogue on that career form, after getting fired for
    0:30:54 being too European, after crying in Andy Warhol’s office, after transforming two other magazines,
    0:30:57 Anna had the job she’d wanted since she was 16.
    0:31:00 Now the real work could begin.
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    0:31:47 Anna didn’t come to Vogue to run it.
    0:31:48 She came to rebuild it.
    0:31:54 Her management style honed over the years, and now unleashed at Vogue was calculated to create
    0:31:58 a specific type of workspace that produced exceptional work.
    0:32:03 If you’ve seen the movie The Devil Wears Prada, you might be familiar with what comes next.
    0:32:07 She installed glass offices so she could see everything happening, fired people with startling
    0:32:13 frequency, and developed what became known as the look, a daily assessment of what every
    0:32:15 staff member’s outfit from shoes to hair.
    0:32:17 One assistant described it perfectly.
    0:32:21 She would stare at your shoes and work her way up.
    0:32:26 She was creating an environment where every detail mattered, because she understood that
    0:32:30 in fashion media, there is no separation between how you look and how you work.
    0:32:33 If you look sloppy, your work will eventually look sloppy.
    0:32:39 If your office operates with casual standards, your editorial standards will eventually become
    0:32:39 casual.
    0:32:40 She fired constantly.
    0:32:46 In the creative business, one person operating at 60% can bring an entire team down to their
    0:32:46 level.
    0:32:49 Excellence requires difficult choices.
    0:32:50 Some saw tyranny.
    0:32:52 Anna saw physics.
    0:32:56 She was creating environmental pressure that made mediocrity impossible to hide.
    0:33:01 When every detail of your appearance matters, every detail of your work starts mattering too.
    0:33:03 Most leaders try to change behavior.
    0:33:05 Anna changed the environment.
    0:33:06 The behavior followed.
    0:33:08 But the real revolution went deeper.
    0:33:10 Fashion magazines operated like art museums.
    0:33:13 Slow, contemplative, precocious.
    0:33:19 Anna brought newspaper urgency to an industry that thought deadlines were just suggestions.
    0:33:21 She wasn’t just changing Vogue.
    0:33:23 She was changing what a fashion magazine could be.
    0:33:25 The devil wasn’t in the details.
    0:33:28 The devil was ignoring the details.
    0:33:30 Anna came from newspaper blood.
    0:33:33 Remember, her father, Charles, ran the Evening Standard.
    0:33:36 She understood what fashion editors didn’t.
    0:33:38 Speed creates quality under pressure.
    0:33:43 Marabella had run Vogue like a museum, everything written down, committees for committees.
    0:33:47 Anna walked in and saw a bureaucracy where there should be velocity.
    0:33:49 First, she killed comfort.
    0:33:51 Out went beige walls and butter-colored chairs.
    0:33:55 In came white walls, glass offices, and metal seats.
    0:33:59 Comfort breeds complacency, and discomfort breeds decision.
    0:34:01 Her meeting revolution was pure newspaper.
    0:34:04 You walk in, you stand, you ask, you leave.
    0:34:06 The saying internally was, you get two minutes.
    0:34:08 The second is a courtesy.
    0:34:11 The chairs in her office were for decoration, not sitting.
    0:34:13 No sitting meant no settling.
    0:34:15 No chit-chat meant no waste.
    0:34:17 Every interaction became a transaction.
    0:34:19 The glass walls weren’t about surveillance.
    0:34:21 They were about accessibility.
    0:34:25 Anna could catch an editor’s eye and assign a task without leaving her desk.
    0:34:31 One editor realized Anna called on her constantly simply because her office was in the sightline.
    0:34:32 The lesson here is clear.
    0:34:34 Architecture is destiny.
    0:34:38 Design your environment to eliminate friction between thought and action.
    0:34:41 Then came Anna’s masterstroke, AWOC.
    0:34:44 Her initials plus OK became a verb.
    0:34:45 Is that AWOC’d yet?
    0:34:46 Nothing.
    0:34:50 Not a caption, not a photo, not a comma moved without her approval.
    0:34:52 This wasn’t micromanagement.
    0:34:54 It was standards transformation.
    0:34:58 Every AWOC taught editors what excellence looked like.
    0:35:01 The infamous clothing run-throughs that took hours under Mirabella.
    0:35:02 Anna did them in minutes.
    0:35:03 Yes.
    0:35:03 No.
    0:35:04 Yes.
    0:35:04 No.
    0:35:05 No.
    0:35:05 Yes.
    0:35:06 Goodbye.
    0:35:07 No explanations.
    0:35:08 No committees.
    0:35:09 Just decisions.
    0:35:13 When you explain every decision, people just learn to argue.
    0:35:15 When you just decide, they learn to anticipate.
    0:35:17 The fear of rejection made editors sharper.
    0:35:21 They learned to pre-filter, to think like Anna before presenting.
    0:35:22 She wasn’t reviewing work.
    0:35:24 She was programming their brains.
    0:35:26 Anna was anything but hands-off.
    0:35:31 She ran on founder mode, staying until midnight the first three months, personally reviewing
    0:35:32 every single layout.
    0:35:37 But unlike Mirabella, who hid in her office, Anna spent half her time with designers, telling
    0:35:38 them what to add to collections.
    0:35:41 Every hiring revealed her system.
    0:35:43 Anna personally screened everyone.
    0:35:45 One candidate was rejected for wearing matching pearls.
    0:35:46 Two matchy-matchy.
    0:35:49 Another almost didn’t get past HR for being overweight.
    0:35:54 They negotiated Anna, giving her at least two and a half minutes for this one, and that
    0:35:54 one got hired.
    0:35:57 She was building a machine where mediocrity had no place to hide.
    0:35:59 Glass walls meant no privacy.
    0:36:01 Speed meant no procrastination.
    0:36:03 Personal approval meant no excuses.
    0:36:05 A lot of people manage outputs.
    0:36:09 Anna managed inputs, control the environment, and excellence becomes inevitable.
    0:36:12 The British girl who couldn’t type had figured out something profound.
    0:36:17 In creative industries, velocity often beats perfection, because perfection without deadlines
    0:36:20 is just procrastination with a better wardrobe.
    0:36:24 What Anna did was change Vogue’s cover strategy.
    0:36:31 Anna puts a $10,000 Christian LaCroix jacket with $50 guest jeans on her first Vogue cover.
    0:36:34 The printer literally called the check.
    0:36:36 Surely someone had made an error.
    0:36:38 No error, just strategy.
    0:36:43 To understand why this matter, you need to understand fashion’s unwritten law.
    0:36:45 Luxury doesn’t mix with mass market.
    0:36:48 It’s like putting a Ferrari engine in a Toyota.
    0:36:53 It violates the hierarchy that lets luxury charge luxury prices.
    0:36:55 Anna broke that law on purpose.
    0:36:57 She understood something the industry didn’t.
    0:37:00 People don’t dress in just Prada or just Gap.
    0:37:01 They mix.
    0:37:05 She was documenting reality while everyone else was protecting mythology.
    0:37:07 This is how disruption often works.
    0:37:09 You don’t invent new behavior.
    0:37:12 You legitimize behavior that already exists.
    0:37:15 But the Madonna cover reveals her deeper insight.
    0:37:20 A businessman on a plane tells Anna he loves Vogue because it’s so elegant, so classic.
    0:37:22 Katherine Hepburn, Grace Kelly.
    0:37:23 It would never be Madonna.
    0:37:27 Most editors would take this as market research.
    0:37:29 Our readers want elegance, not controversy.
    0:37:31 Anna heard it differently.
    0:37:35 If everyone agrees Vogue would never do something, that’s exactly what would get attention.
    0:37:41 Anna would go on to say the fact that that very nice man that I sat next to on the plane thought
    0:37:45 that it would be completely wrong to put Madonna on the cover and completely out of keeping with
    0:37:50 the tradition of Vogue being this very classically correct publication pushed me to break the rules
    0:37:56 and had people talking about us in a way that was culturally relevant, important, and controversial,
    0:37:59 all of which you need to do from time to time.
    0:38:00 Context matters here.
    0:38:07 Madonna in 1989 had just released Like a Prayer, Burning Crosses, romantic scenes with a black saint.
    0:38:09 Pepsi pulled her sponsorship.
    0:38:11 Religious groups wanted boycotts.
    0:38:15 She represented everything Vogue readers theoretically rejected.
    0:38:16 Anna put her on the May cover.
    0:38:21 You need to be culturally relevant, important, and controversial from time to time, she later
    0:38:22 explained.
    0:38:23 The numbers told the story.
    0:38:27 200,000 more copies sold than previous May.
    0:38:28 But that’s not the lesson.
    0:38:30 The real lesson is about information asymmetry.
    0:38:34 When everyone knows something would never work, they stop testing it.
    0:38:35 That creates an opportunity.
    0:38:39 Within five years, every fashion magazine featured celebrities.
    0:38:40 Anna didn’t predict the future.
    0:38:43 She created it by doing what nobody else would test.
    0:38:48 Sometimes the best strategy isn’t finding what people want, it’s showing them what they didn’t
    0:38:49 know they were allowed to want.
    0:38:54 The early 1990s belonged to supermodels, Naomi Campbell, Kate Moss.
    0:38:56 They commanded massive fees and magazine covers.
    0:38:58 Anna killed them off.
    0:38:59 It wasn’t personal, it was business.
    0:39:01 Here’s the lesson she understood.
    0:39:04 Models offer only one story, beauty.
    0:39:07 Celebrities, however, offer infinite stories.
    0:39:10 Marriage, divorce, scandals, politics.
    0:39:13 Every life event becomes content.
    0:39:18 The insight, people don’t buy aspirational images, they buy aspirational narratives.
    0:39:19 Think about the math.
    0:39:22 A supermodel gives you 12 beautiful covers a year.
    0:39:25 A celebrity gives you 12 chapters of an ongoing drama.
    0:39:27 Which do you think keeps readers coming back?
    0:39:29 But Anna also saw something deeper.
    0:39:32 Supermodels influenced how people wanted to look.
    0:39:35 Celebrities influenced how people wanted to live.
    0:39:39 Fashion wasn’t just about clothes anymore, it was about lifestyle.
    0:39:41 The proof came at every red carpet.
    0:39:44 Who are you wearing became the question, not what are you wearing?
    0:39:45 Who?
    0:39:49 Fashion became a character in every celebrity story.
    0:39:53 One of the most remarkable things I discovered researching Anna was that she didn’t just change
    0:39:55 magazine covers.
    0:39:58 She changed how culture talks about clothing.
    0:40:02 The supermodel era ended not because models became less beautiful.
    0:40:05 It ended because beauty without story is just a wallpaper.
    0:40:08 And nobody subscribes to wallpaper.
    0:40:10 Anna was busy.
    0:40:12 Busier than she’d ever been.
    0:40:17 And she developed an assistant system that reveals something profound about how power operates in elite
    0:40:18 institutions.
    0:40:22 She would employ up to three assistants at any given time.
    0:40:27 Each with specific roles that collectively insulated her from administrative tasks that were not
    0:40:30 directly related to editorial decision making.
    0:40:31 This system worked like this.
    0:40:33 First assistant, schedule and communications.
    0:40:37 Second assistant, homes, screenings, and her dogs.
    0:40:42 Third, errands, tickets, and custom orders to designers for Anna’s personal clothing.
    0:40:46 While this may appear as an extravagance, it was math.
    0:40:49 Most executives spend 40% of their time on logistics.
    0:40:51 Anna spent zero.
    0:40:57 100% of her mental energy was spent on work, while an army of other assistants handled everything
    0:40:58 else.
    0:41:00 Think about how powerful that is.
    0:41:01 The system was brutal.
    0:41:03 Emails without subject lines.
    0:41:04 Just commands.
    0:41:05 Coffee, please.
    0:41:06 Get me Tom Ford.
    0:41:07 No niceties.
    0:41:08 No unnecessary words.
    0:41:13 Assistants arrived at 730 to prepare for her entrance when orders would rain down without
    0:41:14 pause.
    0:41:17 There’s an elevator story that captures it perfectly.
    0:41:22 Rumors said Anna banned others from riding with her, but the truth is people avoided the
    0:41:26 elevator because she’d immediately start issuing orders they’d need to write down.
    0:41:28 Impossible while moving.
    0:41:33 One assistant would meet her at her car to collect the AW bag, her papers from home.
    0:41:38 Not because Anna was lazy, because she understood every second carrying bags was a second not spent
    0:41:42 She wouldn’t learn assistants’ names until they proved they could last.
    0:41:44 Most burned out in weeks.
    0:41:45 Here’s the paradox.
    0:41:48 The survivors became fanatically loyal.
    0:41:48 Why?
    0:41:50 They weren’t just filing expenses.
    0:41:53 They were watching Anna negotiate with billionaires.
    0:41:57 They saw how she made split-second decisions that moved markets.
    0:42:00 They built relationships with every power player who walked through Vogue.
    0:42:03 One former assistant summed it up really nicely.
    0:42:04 The demands weren’t personal.
    0:42:09 When you’re affecting billion-dollar industries, there’s no room for casual execution.
    0:42:11 The lesson isn’t about having three assistants.
    0:42:14 It’s about understanding the value of your time.
    0:42:18 It’s about holding the people around you to the same unreasonable standards you hold yourself
    0:42:18 to.
    0:42:23 Anna calculated that her hour was worth more than three people’s days.
    0:42:24 She was right.
    0:42:27 While competitors managed calendars, she managed culture.
    0:42:29 Focus isn’t about doing one thing.
    0:42:32 It’s about doing only the things that you can do.
    0:42:38 By 1997, Anna had been editor-in-chief for nearly a decade, and Vogue was performing spectacularly.
    0:42:44 The magazine had its biggest March issue since 1990, with ad pages up 5.9%.
    0:42:52 The September issue that year weighed 4.3 pounds and was packed with 734 pages, mostly advertisements.
    0:42:57 It was the biggest issue in nine years and represented complete market dominance over its competitors.
    0:42:58 One problem?
    0:43:01 Anna’s publisher, Ron Gagliotti, wants more.
    0:43:07 Gagliotti was hired to maximize revenue, and Anna’s refusal to feature advertisers’ clothes
    0:43:09 in editorial spreads was making him very angry.
    0:43:11 His logic was simple.
    0:43:14 If you need a white shirt for a shoot, why not use Ann Klein’s?
    0:43:16 They’re paying us hundreds of thousands of dollars.
    0:43:18 Anna’s response was simple.
    0:43:20 If it’s ugly, it’s not in Vogue.
    0:43:23 This is the eternal war in creative businesses.
    0:43:25 The money people want compliance.
    0:43:27 The creative people want control.
    0:43:29 Gagliotti escalated to sigh Newhouse.
    0:43:33 They prepared a list of editors who could replace Anna.
    0:43:34 Then they invited her to lunch.
    0:43:36 The ultimatum was blunt.
    0:43:39 Start featuring advertisers’ products or find another job.
    0:43:42 Newhouse’s exact words, I suggest you follow the money.
    0:43:45 Most editors would choose one of two paths.
    0:43:50 Cave completely, turn Vogue into a catalog, or fight and lose, maintain your principles, and
    0:43:50 get fired.
    0:43:52 Anna chose door number three.
    0:43:57 She’d photograph advertisers’ clothes, but only pieces that met her standards.
    0:43:59 Yes to commerce, but she kept the veto.
    0:44:03 The genius here was she made herself indispensable to both sides.
    0:44:08 Advertisers got more coverage than ever, but only Anna could guarantee it would elevate their
    0:44:09 brand and not embarrass it.
    0:44:15 She started taking advertiser meetings, building relationships that transcended the transactions.
    0:44:16 The result?
    0:44:18 Vogue kept its credibility.
    0:44:19 Advertisers got prestige.
    0:44:20 Anna got more powerful.
    0:44:22 The lesson?
    0:44:24 When forced to choose between X and Y, don’t.
    0:44:26 Find the narrow path where both can win.
    0:44:28 Follow the money wasn’t a default.
    0:44:29 It was data.
    0:44:32 Anna learned to speak money fluently while thinking in art.
    0:44:36 That’s how you survive four decades at the top.
    0:44:41 In 1994, just one year after the introduction of the very first web browser to seamlessly
    0:44:46 integrate text and images, many in the publishing world were still pretending the internet didn’t
    0:44:47 exist.
    0:44:51 Anna wasn’t, but she also wasn’t particularly tech-oriented at this point.
    0:44:56 When a new feature editor sent an email to the entire Vogue staff in 1994 to introduce
    0:44:59 himself, he received a fax from Anna in Europe that said,
    0:45:08 But even as Anna dismissed email as impersonal, she was obsessively asking Condé Nast’s digital
    0:45:09 team, when can Vogue go online?
    0:45:14 It’s starting to get embarrassing that Vogue.com is not online.
    0:45:16 Why aren’t we online?
    0:45:17 Here’s what drove Anna’s urgency.
    0:45:23 The entire purpose of fashion is to be a reflection of the times, as one digital executive explained.
    0:45:28 Anna understood that a fashion magazine that felt antiquated or out of date would lose its
    0:45:32 cultural authority, authority that Anna had been building for six years now at Vogue,
    0:45:34 with no intention of stopping.
    0:45:39 While other editors saw the internet as a threat to their business model, Anna saw it as an
    0:45:41 opportunity to increase Vogue’s influence.
    0:45:44 The contradiction reveals her genius.
    0:45:45 Email was internal.
    0:45:46 The website was relevance.
    0:45:48 Email was internal.
    0:45:50 The website was external relevance.
    0:45:55 When Vogue.com eventually launched in 1998, Anna made a radical decision.
    0:45:57 Post every runway show.
    0:45:58 Make it searchable.
    0:45:58 Make it free.
    0:46:00 The fashion world revolted.
    0:46:03 Fashion’s entire business model depended on scarcity.
    0:46:05 Invitation-only shows.
    0:46:06 90-day embargoes.
    0:46:09 Magazines charging premiums for exclusive access.
    0:46:11 Anna was about to give it all away.
    0:46:13 Half the designers said no.
    0:46:16 Many of the fashion houses didn’t even have internet yet.
    0:46:17 Anna published anyway.
    0:46:20 The tagline at the time captured her strategy.
    0:46:23 Before it’s in Vogue, it’s on Vogue.com.
    0:46:26 Her own team worried about this diminished role for print.
    0:46:27 Anna saw it differently.
    0:46:29 It makes our brand more modern.
    0:46:35 The first rule of disruption is if you’re going to get cannibalized, it’s better to eat yourself.
    0:46:38 But Anna didn’t just go online.
    0:46:39 She pushed it farther.
    0:46:45 She orchestrated what may have been High Fashion’s first live stream for Chanel’s resort show in 2000.
    0:46:54 Clothes hit the runway, immediately photographed, instantly purchasable, the see-now, buy-now concept that Burberry would invent 13 years later.
    0:47:00 A partnership with Neiman Marcus represented another breakthrough that wouldn’t become standard until years later.
    0:47:09 Anna negotiated a deal where Condé Nast got a cut of all clothing purchases driven by the Vogue website, essentially inventing fashion e-commerce affiliate marketing.
    0:47:13 After that first season, designers discovered the hidden benefit.
    0:47:16 Digital slideshows replaced expensive lookbooks.
    0:47:18 Buyers could see collections instantly.
    0:47:20 Anna hadn’t just moved fashion online.
    0:47:24 She’d made Vogue indispensable to the entire supply chain.
    0:47:26 This was remarkable.
    0:47:29 And although it’s obvious in hindsight, it wasn’t at the time.
    0:47:36 She took a wild risk to use her name and reputation to push a very unwilling fashion industry into the digital age.
    0:47:40 The parallel to Andy Grove here really stands out.
    0:47:45 In episode 229, when memory chips got commoditized, Intel pivoted to microprocessors.
    0:47:49 When print got commoditized, Anna pivoted to platform.
    0:47:54 Her competitors spent the next decade protecting traditional revenue.
    0:47:58 By then, Anna owned the entire infrastructure that everyone needed to use.
    0:48:04 Women who wouldn’t use email built fashion’s digital future because she understood something her competitors didn’t.
    0:48:07 The question isn’t whether your industry will be disrupted.
    0:48:10 It’s whether you’ll be the one doing the disruption.
    0:48:14 Let’s fast forward to 1999.
    0:48:16 Anna has been running Vogue for 11 years.
    0:48:19 Revenues are up to $149 million.
    0:48:21 Anna’s professional life, perfect.
    0:48:22 Her personal life, imploding.
    0:48:26 The divorce from David Schaefer should have been a disaster.
    0:48:27 Instead, it became rocket fuel.
    0:48:31 New York Magazine was preparing a hit piece about Anna’s breakups.
    0:48:34 Her husband and her deputy editor both leaving.
    0:48:38 When they asked for a cover photo, her former colleague, Jordan Shapes, gave her the playbook.
    0:48:43 We all know it’s going to be a piece of shit article, but a fabulous cover.
    0:48:45 That’s all people take away anyway.
    0:48:49 In a visual culture, perception beats reality.
    0:48:52 Control the image, and you control the narrative.
    0:48:54 No one understood this better than her.
    0:48:56 A colleague noticed something remarkable.
    0:49:01 She was remarkably good at compartmentalizing, which bothered some staff.
    0:49:02 Bothered them?
    0:49:03 It made her unstoppable.
    0:49:09 While others would have crumbled, Anna separated her personal pain from a professional persona,
    0:49:12 like removing one outfit and putting on another.
    0:49:14 The divorce wasn’t a distraction.
    0:49:15 It was rocket fuel.
    0:49:17 Work became her outlet.
    0:49:20 Avoid a crisis as you can, but perform through it if you can’t.
    0:49:23 The woman who emerged from this divorce would be different.
    0:49:26 No personal crisis could derail her professional momentum.
    0:49:28 She was done building a magazine.
    0:49:30 It was time to build an empire.
    0:49:35 With her personal life stabilized, Anna turned her attention to something more ambitious than
    0:49:37 just editing a magazine.
    0:49:42 She wanted to build what she called Big Vogue, a media empire that would extend her influence
    0:49:45 across multiple platforms and demographics.
    0:49:47 The strategy was simple.
    0:49:50 Anna understood that power in media comes from controlling an ecosystem.
    0:49:57 Teen Vogue launched in 2003, followed by Men’s Vogue in 2005, and Vogue Living shortly thereafter.
    0:50:03 Each publication served a different audience, but all carried the Vogue brand, and more
    0:50:05 importantly, all reported to Anna.
    0:50:09 Her philosophy for managing this empire was characteristically direct.
    0:50:13 She described editing multiple magazines like planning a dinner party.
    0:50:16 You need to have the pretty girl, the controversy, and something reassuring.
    0:50:21 By controlling the different elements of the cultural conversation, Anna ensured that the
    0:50:24 Vogue brand touched every significant demographic.
    0:50:27 Teen Vogue was chess, though, not checkers.
    0:50:29 Hook the readers at 15 and keep them for life.
    0:50:35 Plus, it became Anna’s digital laboratory, testing strategies too risky for the mothership.
    0:50:37 Men’s Vogue expanded her range.
    0:50:40 Main Vogue only featured people Anna wanted to celebrate.
    0:50:42 Men’s Vogue could criticize.
    0:50:44 Same brand, different roles.
    0:50:47 But the real genius was the talent pipeline.
    0:50:49 These magazines became Anna’s farm system.
    0:50:51 Train editors at Teen Vogue.
    0:50:52 Promote them to the best Vogue.
    0:50:56 Her influence multiplied through protégés across the industry.
    0:50:59 The portfolio approach had another benefit, resilience.
    0:51:02 When Men’s Vogue folded in 2008, Anna shrugged.
    0:51:04 She had other pieces on the board.
    0:51:09 While competitors protected single titles, Anna built a portfolio that could absorb risk.
    0:51:14 Nothing revealed Anna’s approach to power more clearly than how she handled major crises.
    0:51:21 Her response to September 11th became legendary within Condé Nast and established a template she would follow for decades.
    0:51:27 On September 12th, 2001, while much of New York was still reeling from the 9-11 attacks, Anna went to work.
    0:51:32 Not because she always went to work, but because she had calculated that normalcy was a form of resilience.
    0:51:37 As the message trickled down to her staff, the best thing to do was keep going.
    0:51:38 If Vogue stopped, fashion stopped.
    0:51:41 If the world stopped, the terrorists would have won.
    0:51:43 Anna’s bias toward action revealed itself.
    0:51:49 She assigned a spring fashion preview celebrating the season 9-11 had canceled.
    0:51:52 While others froze, Vogue published.
    0:51:55 But 2008 revealed her true genius.
    0:52:01 While other executives partied through 2007, Anna and publisher Tom Florio were studying currency rates.
    0:52:04 The euro-dollar shift was crushing European luxury brands.
    0:52:06 They saw the canary in the coal mine.
    0:52:11 They built three scenarios, belt tightening, major cuts, or catastrophe mode.
    0:52:15 When Bear Stearns collapsed, Florio warned other Condé Nast publishers.
    0:52:16 They laughed.
    0:52:18 Anna and Tom executed their plan.
    0:52:19 The result?
    0:52:25 Condé Nast ad pages dropped 30% in 2009, wiping out nearly $1 billion in revenue.
    0:52:29 Vogue was one of only two magazines that stayed profitable.
    0:52:33 Famously, after the 2008 crisis, Anna said internally,
    0:52:35 we will not participate in the recession.
    0:52:38 The pattern never changed.
    0:52:40 Position yourself for multiple possible futures.
    0:52:42 Prepare to the extent possible.
    0:52:42 Execute.
    0:52:43 No emotion.
    0:52:47 Whether 9-11, 2008, or any crisis between,
    0:52:48 Anna’s approach was identical.
    0:52:49 See it coming.
    0:52:50 Build options.
    0:52:51 Stay focused.
    0:52:54 The 2008 lesson went deeper.
    0:52:56 When budgets shrink, profitable divisions survive.
    0:52:58 Unprofitable ones don’t.
    0:53:00 No matter how prestigious they are.
    0:53:02 Anna understood in good times, excellence matters.
    0:53:04 In bad times, only profit matters.
    0:53:06 Crises don’t build character.
    0:53:09 It reveals who was positioned and who was pretending.
    0:53:10 As Warren Buffett says,
    0:53:14 Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s swimming naked.
    0:53:17 By keeping Vogue profitable when others bled,
    0:53:18 Anna made herself indispensable.
    0:53:21 While others around her were losing their job,
    0:53:23 no one could come at the queen.
    0:53:28 The digital revolution should have killed Anna’s tenure at Vogue.
    0:53:29 Instead, she weaponized it.
    0:53:34 Vogue.com traffic grew from 1 million to 10 million monthly visitors.
    0:53:40 Same principles, new medium, impeccable visuals, exclusive access, celebrity partnerships.
    0:53:43 But Teen Vogue revealed her real genius.
    0:53:45 In December 2016, Teen Vogue publishes,
    0:53:47 Donald Trump is gaslighting America.
    0:53:49 The media world gasps.
    0:53:53 A fashion magazine doing some serious political commentary.
    0:53:55 Anna’s response, more please.
    0:53:56 She understood,
    0:53:58 Controversy drives engagement.
    0:53:59 Engagement drives revenue.
    0:54:03 Teen Vogue’s traffic exploded from 2 million to 12 million.
    0:54:05 Print subscribers tripled.
    0:54:06 The lesson,
    0:54:09 Your sub-brands can take risks your main brand can’t.
    0:54:10 Use them as laboratories.
    0:54:13 Anna became obsessed with Metrix.
    0:54:18 The woman who once cared only about aesthetics now lived for traffic reports.
    0:54:24 The 2015 Met Gala coverage set records she’d chase after every year.
    0:54:25 She found the holy grail,
    0:54:28 modernizing her greatest creation while expanding its reach.
    0:54:32 Even her Go Ask Anna YouTube series in 2018 was strategic,
    0:54:34 answering random questions.
    0:54:37 No, humanizing her brand while maintaining mystique.
    0:54:41 Digital transformation isn’t about abandoning what made you successful.
    0:54:43 It’s about translating it into a new medium.
    0:54:46 Anna didn’t become a different person online.
    0:54:49 She became a more measurable version of herself.
    0:54:52 And in digital, what can’t be measured can’t be monetized.
    0:54:57 By 2008, Anna discovered fashion was just her vehicle.
    0:54:58 Power was the destination.
    0:55:01 She backed Obama, but not with just checks.
    0:55:05 She created events mixing fashion, entertainment, and political elites.
    0:55:08 Anna positioned herself as the essential connector.
    0:55:12 First principle of real power is don’t join other people’s networks.
    0:55:15 Create your own and be the one everything flows through.
    0:55:17 When ambassador rumors swirled, Anna stayed silent.
    0:55:20 The speculation alone increased her value.
    0:55:23 Why can firm or deny when mystery multiplies the leverage?
    0:55:25 She didn’t get the ambassadorship.
    0:55:26 She got something better.
    0:55:28 Artistic director of all of Condé Nast.
    0:55:29 Not just Vogue.
    0:55:29 Everything.
    0:55:33 But the Met Gala has been her masterpiece of power.
    0:55:37 In 1999, Anna inherits a stuffy charity dinner.
    0:55:40 Wealthy New Yorkers writing checks, patting themselves on the back.
    0:55:47 By 2018, she’s running a $12 million cultural phenomenon that determines who matters in America.
    0:55:49 The transformation reveals everything.
    0:55:51 Anna didn’t just change an event.
    0:55:54 She created a new currency.
    0:55:57 Met Gala invitations became more valuable than money.
    0:56:01 They signaled cultural relevance that no amount of wealth could buy.
    0:56:03 The Met Gala looks like a party.
    0:56:04 Look closer.
    0:56:06 It’s a machine for manufacturing power.
    0:56:09 Anna controls the three levers that matter.
    0:56:10 First, the guest list.
    0:56:14 Reality stars with millions of followers can’t buy their way in.
    0:56:18 By saying no to money, Anna created a currency more valuable than money.
    0:56:20 Second, the seating chart.
    0:56:23 Anna places emerging designers next to billionaire investors.
    0:56:25 Models next to beauty executives.
    0:56:28 She deliberately separates couples, forcing new connections.
    0:56:32 Anna wanted people to meet other people, a former planner revealed.
    0:56:34 That’s where a lot of business came from.
    0:56:36 Third, the content engine.
    0:56:39 One night generates 12 months of coverage.
    0:56:42 The anticipation, the arrivals, the analysis.
    0:56:47 When Lady Gaga spent 16 minutes changing outfits on the steps, that wasn’t spontaneous.
    0:56:49 That was strategy.
    0:56:53 Vogue.com breaks traffic records every Met Gala Monday.
    0:56:58 Ad sales follow eyeballs, the event pays for itself through the content it creates.
    0:57:00 Watch how the flywheel spins.
    0:57:03 Anna’s Vogue coverage can make a designer’s career.
    0:57:05 So when she calls, everyone says yes.
    0:57:07 Their presence makes the event matter.
    0:57:09 The coverage reinforces Vogue’s authority.
    0:57:12 That authority attracts next year’s guests.
    0:57:14 Each turn makes the wheel spin faster.
    0:57:19 The $12 million for the Met is impressive, but it’s a distraction from the real genius.
    0:57:23 Anna made herself essential to three industries at once.
    0:57:24 Fashion needs her platform.
    0:57:26 Museums need her funding.
    0:57:28 Entertainment needs her validation.
    0:57:33 If magazines vanish tomorrow, Anna would still control the room where culture gets decided.
    0:57:35 She didn’t just build a better magazine.
    0:57:37 She built better infrastructure.
    0:57:41 In 2020, the fashion industry was devastated by the pandemic.
    0:57:43 Conde Nast was bleeding money.
    0:57:45 Critics were circling Anna like vultures.
    0:57:47 Everyone predicted her fall.
    0:57:48 Instead, she got promoted.
    0:57:52 December 2020, Anna becomes chief content officer of everything.
    0:57:54 Every Conde Nast magazine.
    0:57:55 Every country.
    0:58:00 The New Yorker to Vanity Fair to GQ all report to the girl who couldn’t type.
    0:58:03 Looking back from today, that promotion wasn’t a reward.
    0:58:05 It was recognition of reality.
    0:58:08 Anna had built something that transcended job titles.
    0:58:10 Her power rested on three pillars.
    0:58:11 Anticipation.
    0:58:15 She saw the celebrity shift before supermodels peaked.
    0:58:18 Pushed digital while competitors protected print.
    0:58:21 And built platforms while others guarded pages.
    0:58:22 Adaptation.
    0:58:24 Her methods never changed.
    0:58:25 Control the environment.
    0:58:26 Maintain standards.
    0:58:27 Move fast.
    0:58:29 But her tactics evolved constantly.
    0:58:31 Indispensability.
    0:58:32 The magic formula.
    0:58:34 Even when controversial, she stayed profitable.
    0:58:36 Even when criticized, she delivered results.
    0:58:39 Revenue plus relevance equals irreplaceable.
    0:58:42 At 75, Anna controls more than she did at 40.
    0:58:46 Not because she’s holding on, but because she’s built the infrastructure everyone needs.
    0:58:47 Here’s what most people miss.
    0:58:49 Anna didn’t achieve power.
    0:58:50 She architected it.
    0:58:56 The 16-year-old who wrote Editor of Vogue on that form, she got that job in 1988.
    0:58:57 But that was just the beginning.
    0:59:01 She spent the next 40 years building something that couldn’t be taken away.
    0:59:03 Jobs can be lost.
    0:59:04 Titles can be stripped.
    0:59:09 But when you become the platform your entire industry runs on, when you control the room
    0:59:14 where culture gets decided, when three different multi-billion dollar industries need you to
    0:59:16 function, that’s not a career.
    0:59:17 That’s architecture.
    0:59:21 The fashion world that Anna entered in 1975 is dead.
    0:59:25 The magazines, the business model, the culture, all transformed beyond recognition.
    0:59:29 Yet Anna didn’t just survive each transformation.
    0:59:30 She caused them.
    0:59:33 True power isn’t controlling what exists today.
    0:59:35 It’s building what controls tomorrow.
    0:59:41 And tomorrow, like every tomorrow for 40 years, still belongs to Anna Wintour.
    0:59:49 Wow.
    0:59:56 I want to talk about some of my reflections from reading and learning about Anna and what a
    0:59:57 force this woman is.
    1:00:01 There’s a couple of things that didn’t make the episode that I really want to emphasize
    1:00:07 here, but I also want to point out one of her secrets is that she’s direct and clear.
    1:00:10 She is kind, but not nice.
    1:00:13 Kind people will tell you something a nice person won’t.
    1:00:14 She will give you the feedback.
    1:00:16 You know exactly what she’s thinking.
    1:00:18 There are no mixed messages.
    1:00:25 And I think a large part of her success is due to the fact that she’s decisive and clear.
    1:00:31 And I think it gets rid of the wrong people very quickly and the right people love it.
    1:00:32 Okay.
    1:00:36 I want to talk about one of the things that gets talked about a lot online with Anna, which
    1:00:37 is her daily routine.
    1:00:42 It’s practically become internet folklore among productivity geeks.
    1:00:43 She wakes up around five.
    1:00:45 She plays an hour of tennis at dawn.
    1:00:50 And then consumes a whole bunch of news, British US newspapers by breakfast by 8am.
    1:00:55 She’s in the office perfectly coiffured with her Starbucks cappuccino, which is her version
    1:00:57 of breakfast in hand.
    1:00:59 I got that from the 80 questions video.
    1:01:04 But her routine’s most viral element is perhaps her wardrobe strategy.
    1:01:06 I have a wardrobe full of print dresses.
    1:01:10 So every morning I just go to one of my print dresses of choice and put it on.
    1:01:11 It makes decision making a lot easier.
    1:01:18 That simple hack from the queen of fashion revealed in her Go Ask Anna video series is cited as a
    1:01:21 brilliant way to just figure out what to wear in the morning.
    1:01:22 I mean, think of Steve Jobs.
    1:01:23 He always wore the same thing.
    1:01:26 And Anna Wintour is effectively doing the same thing.
    1:01:27 I think it’s brilliant.
    1:01:28 You don’t have to think too much.
    1:01:29 You can buy a whole bunch of them.
    1:01:30 You know what size fits.
    1:01:31 It’s great.
    1:01:34 I also want to say something a bit underrated with Anna.
    1:01:39 She cultivated immense loyalty by genuinely helping other peoples.
    1:01:45 It’s a reminder that behind what appears from the outside to be cold, there’s incredible acts
    1:01:47 of generosity in her.
    1:01:49 There’s softer antidotes.
    1:01:54 You know, they might not trend on TikTok, but they circulate in professional communities.
    1:01:58 For instance, you know, one story that sticks in mind that didn’t make this was she helped
    1:02:02 designer John Galliano get his career back on track.
    1:02:08 She gave countless people who didn’t have a name at the time, photographers and assistants,
    1:02:09 a shot.
    1:02:12 And, you know, I want to think about this for a second.
    1:02:16 She might come across as cold as some, but despite what you think from the Devil Wears Prada,
    1:02:20 my sources tell me she was never insulting.
    1:02:23 She valued clarity, speed, and directness.
    1:02:26 She gave direct and honest feedback.
    1:02:28 She’s kind, but not always nice.
    1:02:35 She says people work so much better when feedback is fast, direct, and honest, and they know where
    1:02:36 they are.
    1:02:40 Nobody works well when the atmosphere feels slow and lazy.
    1:02:45 Okay, I want to get into some of the lessons and, you know, some of the recurring themes that
    1:02:46 we see over and over again.
    1:02:50 The first is a taste for salt water.
    1:02:55 Anna spent five years at Harper’s on a skeleton crew of three people doing everything from market
    1:02:57 visits to layouts to captions.
    1:03:00 There was no coffee fetching or filling.
    1:03:03 She was just thrown in completely over her head.
    1:03:06 She said, I was thrown into my career, frankly, with ignorance.
    1:03:07 I knew nothing.
    1:03:12 She treated this grinding apprenticeship as education, not exploitation.
    1:03:15 Most people would have complained or stopped trying.
    1:03:19 That’s why most people don’t get the education that Anna got.
    1:03:21 Two, unreasonable standards.
    1:03:25 Anna returned every borrowed item with original tissue paper intact.
    1:03:30 She’d send steaks back three times for being insufficiently rare, then only eat two bites.
    1:03:35 At Vogue, she instituted the look, a daily assessment of every employee’s appearance from
    1:03:36 shoes to hair.
    1:03:41 Her AWOC system meant nothing, not even a comma, moved without her approval.
    1:03:43 Excellence is a tyrant you invite in.
    1:03:47 Once it moves in, mediocrity has no place to hide.
    1:03:48 Three, high agency.
    1:03:55 When passed over for fashion editor at Harper’s, despite doing the job’s work, Anna didn’t complain
    1:03:56 or negotiate.
    1:03:58 She resigned immediately, taking her assistant with her.
    1:04:02 She moved to New York without a job lined up, betting everything on her vision.
    1:04:04 The system won’t fix itself for you.
    1:04:08 When merit meets politics, choose exodus over argument.
    1:04:10 Four, burn the boats.
    1:04:16 At Viva, the porn-funded fashion magazine, Anna had a total creative freedom but zero prestige.
    1:04:22 Rather than job hunting for something respectable, she used the disreputable platform to develop
    1:04:23 her aesthetic without interference.
    1:04:28 She studied European fashion magazines while working at a magazine sold behind the counter.
    1:04:31 Sometimes the worst address is the best classroom.
    1:04:34 Embrace opportunities others are too proud to take.
    1:04:37 Five, bias towards action.
    1:04:39 Anna’s meeting revolution at Vogue.
    1:04:41 Walk in, stand, ask, leave.
    1:04:42 You get two minutes.
    1:04:44 The second is a courtesy.
    1:04:49 The clothing run-throughs that took hours under Mirabella, Anna did them in minutes.
    1:04:51 Yes, no, yes, no, yes, no.
    1:04:52 Goodbye.
    1:04:55 No explanations, no committees, just decisions.
    1:04:59 When people avoided her in the elevator, it wasn’t because she banned them, it was because
    1:05:02 she’d immediately start issuing orders they’d need to write down.
    1:05:04 Decisiveness is a muscle.
    1:05:06 The more you use it, the faster you move.
    1:05:08 Velocity matters.
    1:05:10 Six, outthink, don’t just outwork.
    1:05:17 When her boss at Harper’s wanted advertiser-friendly spreads, Anna would meet photographers in the lobby,
    1:05:20 select only the best shots, and claim no others existed.
    1:05:25 She forced him to choose between her vision and expensive reshoots, and she won every time.
    1:05:26 Don’t fight the system.
    1:05:30 Architect situations where the system has to choose you.
    1:05:32 Seven, don’t care what they think.
    1:05:37 Putting Madonna on Vogue’s cover in 1989 horrified fashion purists.
    1:05:39 The woman had just released a video burning crosses.
    1:05:42 Pepsi had polled her sponsorship.
    1:05:43 Religious groups wanted boycotts.
    1:05:48 Anna did it anyway because a businessman on a plane said Vogue would never feature Madonna.
    1:05:52 The issue sold 200,000 extra copies.
    1:05:57 When everyone agrees something will never work, that’s precisely when they stopped testing it.
    1:05:59 Consensus kills innovation.
    1:06:01 Eight, positioning is leverage.
    1:06:07 Anna accepted a made-up creative director role at Vogue, officially Mirabella’s deputy,
    1:06:09 but in reality Lieberman’s protege.
    1:06:13 It wasn’t the job she wanted, but it got her foot in the door.
    1:06:17 For three years, she learned the operation while appearing to be number two.
    1:06:21 She’d sit in a meeting, shaking her head, obviously disagreeing with Mirabella,
    1:06:24 playing a longer game than office politics.
    1:06:26 When Mirabella was fired, Anna was ready.
    1:06:30 When you know what you want, the strongest form of positioning is preparation.
    1:06:33 Nine, be a talent collector.
    1:06:39 Anna championed unknown photographers who became legends and built a three-assistant system that
    1:06:42 created Fashion Magazine’s most powerful alumni network.
    1:06:44 Her protégés run fashion globally.
    1:06:48 They learned by watching her negotiate with billionaires and shape culture daily.
    1:06:53 Your legacy isn’t just what you build, it’s who you build with.
    1:06:55 And you can’t buy good company.
    1:06:57 Ten, overmatch.
    1:07:00 Anna didn’t just go into detail.
    1:07:07 She forced the entire industry online in 1988, making Vogue.com the platform every designer needed.
    1:07:09 She didn’t compete with other magazines.
    1:07:11 She built the infrastructure they’d have to use.
    1:07:13 The Met Gala wasn’t improved.
    1:07:20 It was weaponized into a $12 million annual event of cultural dominance where she controls
    1:07:23 the guest list, seating charts, and cultural relevance itself.
    1:07:25 Don’t play fair games.
    1:07:27 Build the game itself and then charge admission.
    1:07:29 11, win by not losing.
    1:07:35 During the 2008 financial crisis, while other Condé Nast magazines bled out, Vogue remained
    1:07:35 profitable.
    1:07:41 Anna and her publisher had watched Eurodollar exchange rates, built three scenarios, and executed
    1:07:44 their plan while others partied.
    1:07:47 When Bear Stearns collapsed, they were ready.
    1:07:48 They were well-positioned.
    1:07:51 In a crisis, profitable divisions survive.
    1:07:53 Unprofitable ones get cut.
    1:07:55 Excellence matters in good times.
    1:07:57 Profits matter in both.
    1:08:00 When you combine the two, you succeed no matter what.
    1:08:01 What a force.
    1:08:04 Anna, oh my God, I can’t even say enough about her.
    1:08:10 This woman is so amazing and incredible, and I hope you learned as much as I did listening
    1:08:15 to this episode, and I would love to have her as a guest on the podcast, so if you’re listening
    1:08:19 to this and you know how to get in touch with her, I would love to interview her and sit
    1:08:26 down and talk about her and Vogue, and man, what an amazing woman and an amazing story.
    1:08:38 Thanks for listening and learning with us, and be sure to sign up for my free weekly newsletter
    1:08:41 at fs.blog slash newsletter.
    1:08:45 I hope you enjoyed my reflections at the end of this episode, and that’s normally reserved
    1:08:50 for members, but with this outlier series, I wanted to make them available to everyone.
    1:08:55 The Farnham Street website is where you can get more info on our membership program, which
    1:09:02 includes access to episode transcripts, reflections for all episodes, my updated repository featuring
    1:09:07 highlights from the books used in this series, and more. Plus, be sure to follow myself and
    1:09:13 Farnham Street on X, Instagram, and LinkedIn. If you like what we’re doing here, leaving a rating
    1:09:17 and review would mean the world. And if you really like us, sharing with a friend is the best way to
    1:09:20 grow this special series. Until next time.

    The job was editor-in-chief. The goal was to become the platform. And she did. 

    Once she made it to the top, she didn’t just edit Vogue. She reinvented the power structures beneath it. This episode unpacks how a British girl who couldn’t type built the most bulletproof career in media, survived five decades of disruption, and made herself indispensable to fashion, politics, and culture.  

    You’ll hear how she weaponized speed over perfection, fired half the Vogue staff in three days, and turned a porn-funded job into a fashion laboratory. Why she said “Your job” when asked what she wanted. Why she put Madonna on the cover at the peak of a scandal. Why standards—not popularity—are her real moat. It’s not about fashion. It’s about building systems no one can take from you.  

    Most people aim for realistic. Anna Wintour named her destination—Editor of Vogue—at sixteen, then built a ladder no one else could climb. 

    This episode is for informational purposes only and is based on Amy Odell’s Anna: The Biography. Simon & Schuster, 2022. 

    Check out highlights from these books in our repository, and find key lessons from Wintour here—⁠⁠⁠⁠https://fs.blog/knowledge-project-podcast/outliers-anna-wintour/

    Approximate timestamps: Subject to variation due to dynamically inserted ads:

    (03:48 ) PART 1: A Childhood Defined: The Girl Who Couldn’t Type
    (05:50) Anna Chooses Her Path
    (07:28) Learning by Drowning
    (09:46) The Tyranny of Standards
    (12:01) When Merit Meets Reality

    (13:44) PART 2: Conquering New York: The Quiet Revolutionary
    (16:05) Quiet Focus
    (18:10) The Best Worst Job
    (19:29) A Reputation from Nothing
    (21:00) In the Wilderness
    (22:39) The Preparation Advantage
    (25:40) The Audacity Play
    (27:22) The London Interlude
    (28:44) The Execution

    (30:19) PART 3: Vogue’s Transformation: The Devil in the Details
    (32:04) Speed as Strategy
    (34:56) The Celebrity Revolution
    (38:44) The Three-Assistant Solution
    (41:07) Balancing Art and Commerce
    (43:11) Cannibalizing Yourself First

    (46:46) PART 4: Anna’s Empire: The Power of Compartmentalization
    (48:05) The Empire Strategy
    (49:44) Crisis as Opportunity
    (51:58) The Digital Reinvention
    (53:27) The Currency of Influence
    (54:36) The Machine Anna Built
    (56:11) The Persistence of Power

    (58:23) Reflections, afterthoughts, and lessons

    Upgrade—If you want to hear my thoughts and reflections at the end of all episodes, join our membership: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and get your own private feed.

    Newsletter—The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at ⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠

    Follow Shane on X at: ⁠x.com/ShaneAParrish

  • #232 Netflix Founder Reed Hastings on Scaling High-Trust Culture & Bold Judgment

    How do you build a high-performance culture without turning your company into the Hunger Games? Reed Hastings, co-founder and former CEO of Netflix, shares lessons from a career spent rewriting the rules—from severance as a management tool to “big-hearted champions who pick up the trash.” In this episode, he reveals how Netflix scaled trust, made bold bets before the data was in, and kept its edge by treating employees like adults—not assets. You’ll hear how Hastings evaluates talent beyond the interview, the reason he avoids performance improvement plans, and what most leaders misunderstand about judgment, feedback, and innovation. 

    You’ll also hear why he placed a $100 million bet on House of Cards with no pilot, how Drive to Survive changed an entire sport, and why Squid Game caught even Netflix by surprise. 

    Now focused on a new chapter—owning a ski mountain, reshaping education through AI tutors, and supporting charter schools—Hastings is still doing what he does best: building systems that scale culture, not just product. 

    If you care about performance without politics—or culture without the clichés—this is a blueprint from one of the clearest thinkers in modern business. 

    Approximate timestamps: Subject to variation due to dynamically inserted ads:

    (3:09) Powder Mountain, Skiing Industry, & Buying a Mountain
    (6:36) Setting Culture in an Organization
    (9:21) Hiring Process and Evaluating Candidates
    (14:24) Netflix’s 2009 Slide Deck Release
    (16:26) Talent Density and Performance Culture
    (17:59) Loyalty and Team Building
    (19:56) Severance Packages
    (22:17) Process Vs. Innovation
    (24:21) Preventing Bureaucracy from Creeping In
    (25:46) Identifying and Nurturing Good Judgment
    (26:40) Transition from CEO to Board Member
    (27:37) Competitive Landscape of Online Streaming
    (29:18) Role of Netflix in Driving Industry Interest
    (31:25) Handling Controversy: The Dave Chappelle Case
    (33:59) Inclusiveness and DEI in the Workplace
    (35:10) Customer Satisfaction and Operating Income
    (36:06) Decision Making in Content Acquisition: House of Cards
    (37:28) Creating vs Buying Content
    (38:46) Data Collection and User Preferences
    (40:32) AI in Netflix and Personal Use
    (42:33) AI in Education
    (45:12) Charter Schools and Importance of Education
    (48:07) Charter Schools and Government Control
    (52:34) Misconceptions and Personal Projects
    (53:25) Admiration for Bill Gates
    (55:04) Work-Life Integration
    (56:59) Reflections on Career and Obsession
    (59:12) The Netflix Keeper Test
    (1:00:38) Learning from Past Experiences at Pure Software
    (1:02:27) Challenges and Regrets at Pure Software
    (1:03:38) Role of the Board in Founder-led Companies
    (1:04:49) Venture Capital Experiences and Insights
    (1:05:31) Defining Moments and Openness to New Experiences
    (1:06:14) First Product Excitement: The Foot Mouse
    (1:07:19) Definition of Success

    Thanks to our sponsors for supporting this episode:

    NORDVPN: To get the best discount off your NordVPN plan go to ⁠⁠nordvpn.com/KNOWLEDGEPROJECT⁠. Our link will also give you 4 extra months on the 2-year plan. There’s no risk with Nord’s 30 day money-back guarantee!

    MOMENTOUS: Head to https://www.livemomentous.com and use code KNOWLEDGEPROJECT for 35% off your first subscription.

    Newsletter – The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at ⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠

    Upgrade — If you want to hear my thoughts and reflections at the end of the episode, join our membership: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and get your own private feed.

    Watch on YouTube: ⁠⁠⁠@tkppodcast

  • #231 Outliers: Harvey Firestone – Men and Rubber

    AI transcript
    0:00:06 The most difficult thing in business is first getting yourself to thinking, and then getting
    0:00:07 others to thinking.
    0:00:14 A person may keep very busy indeed without doing any thinking at all, and the easy course
    0:00:17 is to keep so busy there will be no time left over for thought.
    0:00:22 We try to substitute discussion for thought by organizing committees, but a committee
    0:00:28 is just an elaborate means of fooling oneself into believing that talking is the same as
    0:00:28 thinking.
    0:00:35 These words are from Harvey S. Firestone’s autobiography, Men and Rubber, one of the
    0:00:38 books that I give away the most frequently as a gift.
    0:00:44 While it was written in 1926, everyone I give it to is surprised not only by the density of
    0:00:46 wisdom, but by how relevant it remains today.
    0:01:02 Welcome to The Knowledge Project.
    0:01:05 I’m your host, Shane Parrish.
    0:01:10 In a world where knowledge is powered, this podcast is your toolkit for mastering the best
    0:01:11 of what other people have already figured out.
    0:01:20 In 1920, Harvey Firestone returned from vacation to find his company drowning in 43 million of
    0:01:20 debt.
    0:01:25 His executives were paralyzed, the banks had cut him off, competitors were circling.
    0:01:30 Yet, instead of panicking, Firestone did something that shocked everyone.
    0:01:34 He slashed prices by 25% and personally took control of sales.
    0:01:36 The situation did not frighten me, he later wrote.
    0:01:38 It put new life into me.
    0:01:44 That crisis revealed the principles that separated Firestone from every other businessman of his
    0:01:49 era, and they’re the same principles that separate outliers from everyone else today.
    0:01:54 While others built elaborate organizations, Firestone asked two simple questions that cut
    0:01:55 through every problem.
    0:01:57 Is it necessary?
    0:01:58 And can it be simplified?
    0:02:03 While others chased trends, he focused relentlessly on what wouldn’t change.
    0:02:08 While others avoided hard decisions, he had the courage to close doors and burn boats.
    0:02:14 Most importantly, Firestone understood something that eludes most ambitious professionals today.
    0:02:20 Positioning beats talent, simplicity scales better than complexity, and the person with
    0:02:22 options holds all the power.
    0:02:24 Today’s episode isn’t about tires.
    0:02:29 It’s about the durable, asymmetric advantages that create lasting success in any field.
    0:02:34 Whether you’re navigating technological disruption, fighting entrenched competitors,
    0:02:39 or building something from nothing, Firestone’s principles will give you an unfair advantage.
    0:02:43 As he put it, thought, not money, is the real business capital.
    0:02:47 Let’s examine how he built an empire by thinking differently.
    0:02:50 It’s time to listen and learn.
    0:02:57 This podcast is for entertainment and informational purposes only.
    0:03:05 Harvey Firestone learned his most valuable business lessons, not from formal education, but from his
    0:03:10 father, Benjamin, a man he would later call the best businessman I have ever known.
    0:03:17 What made Benjamin exceptional wasn’t flashy success or quick profits, but a deeper understanding
    0:03:20 of what creates lasting value.
    0:03:26 The test of a businessman is not whether he can make money in one or two boom years or can make
    0:03:32 money throughout one lifetime, but whether he creates something that will live and grow in
    0:03:35 money-making power after he is gone.
    0:03:40 By this standard, Benjamin excelled through three principles that would later define Harvey’s
    0:03:42 own approach to building an empire.
    0:03:48 The first principle was maintaining a surplus, or how I prefer to frame it as a margin of safety.
    0:03:54 Harvey wrote that his father had the rare foresight to know that a fine crop one year was more
    0:03:58 or less a fortunate accident and did not set a figure to be followed during future years.
    0:04:03 Consequently, he always had plenty of stock and feed on hand.
    0:04:06 This wasn’t just prudent farming, it was positioning.
    0:04:09 Benjamin was never a forced seller.
    0:04:14 When other farmers rushed to market and sold regardless of price because they needed the money
    0:04:16 so badly, he could wait.
    0:04:19 Sometimes an entire year for better prices.
    0:04:25 Having a surplus is the greatest aid to business judgment that I know, Harvey later reflected,
    0:04:30 and I bitterly know what I’m talking about, for I went through years of upbuilding without
    0:04:32 being able to accumulate a surplus.
    0:04:38 The key lesson here is that if you are well positioned, be it with a surplus or margin of
    0:04:42 safety or whatever you want to call it, you control your own circumstances.
    0:04:45 When you don’t have that, you are controlled by them.
    0:04:48 The second principle was patience in negotiation.
    0:04:53 At market, Benjamin would silently survey the options, watching and listening, and gathering
    0:04:59 as much information as possible before deciding, often walking away if conditions weren’t favorable.
    0:05:01 Never rush in on a deal, he advised.
    0:05:02 Let it come to you.
    0:05:08 This discipline meant Harvey couldn’t recall his father ever making a significant mistake.
    0:05:12 Third, and perhaps most valuable, was Benjamin’s reputation for fairness.
    0:05:18 He never wanted to get more than his stock was worth, or to buy stock for less than it was
    0:05:19 worth, Harvey wrote.
    0:05:20 The result?
    0:05:23 Other farmers wouldn’t sell until Benjamin did.
    0:05:28 Buyers sought him out, first knowing whatever price he accepted would set the market.
    0:05:31 His reputation had become a competitive advantage.
    0:05:37 While other farmers remained narrowly focused on daily operations, Benjamin also maintained perspective
    0:05:41 through voracious reading, rare for farmers of that era.
    0:05:46 As Harvey noted, when all a person’s attention is required by the daily running of his business,
    0:05:49 he seldom sees the business in perspective.
    0:05:52 He misses the new developments.
    0:05:56 Young Harvey absorbed these lessons while developing his own passion for trading horses.
    0:06:02 By 15, he could evaluate a horse’s quality and value with remarkable precision.
    0:06:07 Skills that would transfer surprisingly well to his future in the tire industry, where quality
    0:06:11 assessment and value creation were similarly crucial.
    0:06:16 The lessons here are deceptively simple, but incredibly powerful.
    0:06:19 Good positioning eliminates forced decisions.
    0:06:23 You don’t need to be smarter than others to outperform them if you’re better positioned.
    0:06:28 Anyone looks like a genius when they’re in a good position, and even the smartest person
    0:06:30 looks like an idiot when they’re in a bad one.
    0:06:33 Working in your business also differs from working on it.
    0:06:36 One requires execution, the other perspective.
    0:06:43 And finally, fairness compounds of the four possible relationship outcomes with anyone in your life.
    0:06:46 Win-win, win-lose, lose-win, lose-lose.
    0:06:49 Only win-win builds lasting success.
    0:06:56 After leaving the firm, Harvey’s brief stint as a bookkeeper led to his first real business venture,
    0:07:00 with a man named Jackson, selling flavoring extracts and patent medicines.
    0:07:06 This disaster would teach him more about business fundamentals than any success could have.
    0:07:10 Jackson’s business model was based on a misunderstanding of cause and effect.
    0:07:15 He had observed a friend named August Green grow wealthy, selling a dubious cure-all called
    0:07:20 Green’s August Flower, which succeeded through aggressive advertising.
    0:07:26 Jackson believed he could replicate this success, but skipped the advertising costs by hiring charismatic
    0:07:27 salesmen.
    0:07:34 Among these star salesmen was a character Harvey vividly remembered, a big fine fellow with a genial
    0:07:38 presence and the gift of gab, one of these men who could sell anything.
    0:07:40 He had just one formula.
    0:07:46 He just breezed in on a prospect, offered him a cigar, and then sat down and talked him to death.
    0:07:49 That was salesmanship in those days.
    0:07:53 Harvey joined as a junior salesman at $50 monthly.
    0:07:57 Not for any sales expertise, but because he had helped with the business plan.
    0:08:03 His romanticized version of the traveling salesman’s life quickly collided with reality when his first
    0:08:06 territory was tiny Apple Creek, Ohio.
    0:08:08 His first day proved humbling.
    0:08:12 After nervously circling the town a few times, Harvey struck out at several small shops before
    0:08:18 reluctantly trying his hand at the largest shop, thinking it was the least likely to hear him out.
    0:08:22 And surprisingly, it was at this shop that he made his first sale.
    0:08:25 This pattern taught him a crucial insight.
    0:08:31 The owners of truly successful businesses recognize and prioritize genuine opportunities,
    0:08:35 while those struggling often claimed to be too busy for new ideas.
    0:08:40 But the business was on borrowed time, and the more profound lesson emerged as it unraveled.
    0:08:44 The star salesman focused on high-margin patent medicines,
    0:08:48 while Harvey, lacking confidence, sold humble vanilla extract.
    0:08:52 Unexpectedly, his vanilla sales became the company’s main revenue source.
    0:08:58 As Harvey later explained, patent medicines do not sell on merit, for there is precious little merit in most of them.
    0:09:05 Patent medicines sell only on their reputation for curing diseases, and that reputation has to be built up by advertising.
    0:09:18 Meanwhile, the extracts did not need to be advertised because people do not have to be educated into the belief that vanilla extract will give them a vanilla flavor,
    0:09:24 whereas they do have to be educated or fooled into the belief that a spring tonic will cure spring ills.
    0:09:30 Within six months, all the star salesmen quit, Jackson went broke, and Harvey lost his job.
    0:09:36 But he gained something more valuable than money, understanding that the relationship between product quality, marketing, and sales.
    0:09:43 More importantly, he witnessed firsthand how easily businesses confuse correlation with causation.
    0:09:48 The star salesmen had succeeded earlier in their careers not because of their sales techniques,
    0:09:51 but because they’d sold products with established reputations.
    0:09:59 They mistook correlation, their sales alongside advertising, for causation, their personal ability to persuade.
    0:10:00 Harvey would later write,
    0:10:05 The first principle of salesmanship is that you must thoroughly believe in what you have to sell.
    0:10:10 Then selling becomes merely a matter of showing how your product will help a prospect.
    0:10:17 Great products either sell themselves through obvious utility or require the right marketing to educate customers about their value.
    0:10:23 This lesson would serve Harvey throughout his career and remains equally relevant today.
    0:10:29 After his sales venture collapsed, Harvey swallowed his pride and joined his uncle’s buggy company.
    0:10:31 A position he’d previously rejected.
    0:10:38 For the first time, he earned enough to pursue his passion for horses as a side business, buying and selling them at a profit.
    0:10:41 But technological disruption was coming for the carriage industry.
    0:10:45 Harvey’s company sold premium buggies for $110.
    0:10:47 They were built to last decades.
    0:10:54 However, competitors began offering solid $35 alternatives that farmers found perfectly adequate.
    0:11:01 Customers increasingly preferred replacing cheaper vehicles every few years rather than investing in premium durability.
    0:11:11 The value proposition that seemed obviously superior to industry insiders, longer lasting quality, turned out to matter less and less to consumers than price.
    0:11:19 The company soon entered receivership, and Harvey found himself unemployed again, but this time with a wife and home to support.
    0:11:21 The pressure was relentless.
    0:11:25 Yet these consecutive failures gave Harvey invaluable business education.
    0:11:33 He was learning Jackson’s extract company had failed through poor marketing, misaligned incentives, and product market misunderstanding.
    0:11:40 His uncle’s buggy company collapsed by clinging to outdated value propositions while the market evolved beneath them.
    0:11:50 Harvey was learning business fundamentals through observing failures up close, paying with time rather than capital, and it would become an education more valuable than any he could have purchased.
    0:11:58 These early failures weren’t just teaching Harvey about business, they were preparing his mind to spot opportunity where others saw only crisis.
    0:12:04 And that opportunity would arrive in an unexpected form, right beneath the wheels of his own buggy.
    0:12:09 One afternoon in Detroit, everything changed.
    0:12:14 Looking down at the wheels of his own carriage, Harvey found the insight that would define his future.
    0:12:23 “Driving out one afternoon in my rubber-tired buggy, it, for the first time, struck me that my future was right on the wheels of my buggy.
    0:12:26 Those rubber tires were the only ones in Detroit.
    0:12:33 They were not the only ones in the United States, and a London cab company had already fitted out all of its cabs with rubber tires.
    0:12:36 But they were hard to buy in the United States.
    0:12:38 Why not make them easy to buy?”
    0:12:46 “This was classic opportunity recognition, identifying a gap between what people wanted and what was readily available.
    0:12:53 Rubber tires transformed the riding experience, replacing bone-jarring wooden wheels and metal rims with smooth comfort.
    0:12:59 Harvey had experienced this himself and recognized a fundamental truth about product adoption.
    0:13:02 Once a man rode on rubber tires, he wanted a set.
    0:13:08 This insight mirrors what Estee Lauder would later build an entire empire around.
    0:13:10 I think we talk about this in Episode 218.
    0:13:13 The power of direct experience.
    0:13:20 Lauder insisted on personally applying her cosmetics to customers, knowing first-hand experience would convert them instantly.
    0:13:25 Harvey understood that rubber tires sold themselves after just one ride.
    0:13:30 And a carefully selected partner quickly estimated the market potential during a single dinner conversation.
    0:13:38 If they could capture just half the buggy market in America, they calculated they’d rival standard oil in size.
    0:13:44 Last night, they caught a train to Chicago and within days purchased a small rubber factory for $1,500 cash.
    0:13:52 Their business model was straightforward: buy rubber strips, cut and fit them to carriage wheels, and charge $40 for sets that cost $14 to produce.
    0:13:55 A healthy 65% gross margin.
    0:14:00 But they immediately confronted the entrepreneur’s classic dilemma: success creating its own problems.
    0:14:06 Their growth outpaced their financial resources, creating a dangerous mismatch between opportunity and capability.
    0:14:12 As Harvey candidly explained, we were growing faster than our capital, which meant that we were always short of money.
    0:14:21 Their promising venture now faced the constraint that kills more startups than any other, running out of cash while running towards success.
    0:14:27 While Harvey mastered production quickly, the financial side of his growing business revealed his inexperience.
    0:14:32 As he candidly admitted, their complexity was not due to the size of operations.
    0:14:39 I could state our condition in those days right out of my head, and the back of an envelope gave ample space for the statement.
    0:14:43 Our trouble was that we did not have enough money and did not know how to get it.
    0:14:48 The elephant in the room for any growing business appeared: cash constraints meeting opportunity.
    0:14:58 When the Imperial Robber Company offered to sell their entire operation for $15,000, which was a bargain too good to ignore, Harvey faced a moment of truth.
    0:15:02 He needed outside capital, therefore he would need to learn banking.
    0:15:06 His first bank meeting became a master class in humiliation.
    0:15:13 Harvey arrived with enthusiasm and projections, mistaking the banker’s polite interest for genuine excitement.
    0:15:18 The banker nodded and asked questions, and gave every indication of impending approval.
    0:15:22 He was just giving me the opportunity to show how little I knew about finance.
    0:15:24 He was not frank about it.
    0:15:29 I left the bank thinking I was going to get a loan, and while I was never refused the loan, I never got it.
    0:15:37 Picture Harvey in that moment, walking out confident, expecting imminent funds, unaware he just revealed every gap in his financial knowledge.
    0:15:41 But failure teaches what success can’t.
    0:15:48 From this embarrassment, Harvey extracted lessons about financial communication that still serve entrepreneurs a century later.
    0:15:53 What I learned was that a bank statement ought never to be in such shape that it has to be explained.
    0:15:55 Everything ought to be on the statement.
    0:15:57 A statement of condition can be a prospectus.
    0:16:04 In fact, it is the best possible kind of prospectus, but it ought not to be prepared in enthusiasm.
    0:16:08 Undeterred, Harvey approached a larger institution, First National Bank.
    0:16:16 This critical moment came when he met Frank O. Wetmore, a young loan officer who saw beyond Harvey’s inexperience to his potential.
    0:16:24 Rather than rejecting him, Wetmore offered what Harvey called a course in practical banking, teaching him about the proper financial ratios and management.
    0:16:28 Then, remarkably, Wetmore lent him $10,000.
    0:16:31 The lesson here is bounce, don’t break.
    0:16:36 The first no is rarely the end of the line. Learn, adapt, and try again.
    0:16:43 Harvey’s relationship with Wetmore evolved from lender to mentor, transforming both the business and Harvey himself.
    0:16:53 The connection proved so valuable that even after becoming an industrial titan, Harvey continued seeking Wetmore’s counsel whenever he was in Chicago.
    0:16:58 With financing secured, they purchased the factory, but a competitive threat immediately emerged.
    0:17:05 A rival company introduced a purpose-built wheel for rubber tires that made Harvey’s retrofitting method look primitive by comparison.
    0:17:12 Harvey faced the classic entrepreneur’s dilemma, fight a technically superior competitor or find another path.
    0:17:20 Rather than battling uphill, he pursued a counterintuitive strategy, proposing a merger to his competitor with a simple, powerful argument.
    0:17:24 If the two of us kept in the field, neither would make any money.
    0:17:31 The consolidation succeeded, therefore they became the dominant player in Chicago’s buggy tire market.
    0:17:38 This market position attracted the attention of a consolidated company, a trust actively acquiring rubber businesses nationwide.
    0:17:50 After careful negotiation, Harvey and his partner sold for $1,254,000, an amount Harvey described as something more than four times what our business was worth, not counting its goodwill.
    0:17:57 His personal share came to $45,000 in cash, considerably more money than I had thought was in the world for me.
    0:18:04 Picture Harvey in this moment, the farm boy who weathered multiple failures, now holding more cash than he’d imagined ever possible.
    0:18:10 Most people would have considered this the happy ending, goal achieved, financial security obtained.
    0:18:11 But Harvey wasn’t most people.
    0:18:13 In fact, he was just getting started.
    0:18:21 With characteristic prudence, he invested $20,000 in a mortgage for steady income and kept $25,000 liquid for his next venture.
    0:18:26 In just four years, a $1,000 investment had grown 45-fold.
    0:18:30 Though the acquiring company offered him a position, Harvey soon resigned.
    0:18:32 As he put it, “I wanted to be out for myself.”
    0:18:39 The wealth hadn’t changed, his fundamental desire for independence and the chance to build something truly his own.
    0:18:44 With newfound wealth in hand, Harvey faced the classic entrepreneur’s question, “What’s next?”
    0:18:48 The carriage industry held little appeal for his uncle’s business collapsed.
    0:18:54 I had no hankering after the carriage business he rode for it to become one of keen competition in cheap models.
    0:18:57 But what about the emerging automobile industry?
    0:19:02 Surprisingly, Harvey didn’t see gasoline-powered cars as the obvious future.
    0:19:06 The few automobiles on the American roads seem like expensive curiosities.
    0:19:10 Not exactly toys, but certainly not commercial products.
    0:19:13 Of course, that’s how all innovation starts.
    0:19:14 Just look at AI today.
    0:19:17 It really went mainstream with DALI.
    0:19:20 And all you could do is make these silly little images.
    0:19:21 And people laughed.
    0:19:24 And now, just a few years later, it’s taking over jobs.
    0:19:31 Harvey, like many of us, was so focused on the present that he’d walked past the automotive history being made without recognizing it.
    0:19:37 He later admitted, “I do not recall ever seeing Henry Ford’s car about the streets of Detroit.
    0:19:40 And I have no recollection of having seen Mr. Ford.
    0:19:43 Although probably we passed many times on the street.
    0:19:48 For the Detroit Edison Company where he worked was close to my Detroit office.”
    0:19:51 Instead, Harvey believed electric vehicles would dominate.
    0:20:00 noting, “I had sold many tires to the Woods Motor Vehicle Company in Chicago, which was one of the first companies to get out an electric carriage.
    0:20:04 We all thought of electricity as the coming motive power for everything.”
    0:20:09 The man who would later partner with Henry Ford was betting on the wrong technology.
    0:20:14 But amid this uncertainty, Harvey made a profound insight that would define as success.
    0:20:19 Rather than betting on which transportation technology would win, he bet on what wouldn’t change.
    0:20:22 “I believe thoroughly in rubber tires,” he wrote.
    0:20:27 “They made riding so much easier that they appeared to me to be a necessity.”
    0:20:32 While working briefly for a Chicago tire company, Harvey grew dissatisfied with their pricing policies.
    0:20:35 Therefore, he resigned and attempted to start his own venture.
    0:20:45 When disagreements with bankers over factory locations derailed his plan, Harvey redirected to Akron, Ohio, the established center of America’s rubber industry.
    0:20:55 There, after managing a tire department for another company, Harvey encountered the invention that would transform his trajectory and the future of American transportation.
    0:21:01 In Akron, Harvey encountered an invention that addressed the tire industry’s fundamental challenge.
    0:21:10 James Swinehart, a former school teacher turned carpenter, had developed an innovative fastening method that solved a persistent problem.
    0:21:15 The prime difficulty in the whole tire trade was fastening the tires to the rims, Harvey explained.
    0:21:19 The clincher principle was popular for a time, but it was not entirely satisfactory.
    0:21:26 Swinehart’s solution used cross wires embedded in the tire base, secured with retaining wires.
    0:21:33 A simple but elegant fix that worked particularly well for larger tires where other approaches failed completely.
    0:21:37 On July 26, 1900, Harvey and Swinehart struck a deal.
    0:21:39 They would launch with $50,000 in capital.
    0:21:48 Harvey investing $10,000 cash plus a business option valued at $15,000, while Swinehart contributed $10,000 and his patent.
    0:21:51 The Firestone Tire and Rubber Company was born.
    0:21:56 Harvey became treasurer and general manager rather than president, explaining,
    0:21:58 “I have never cared much about titles.
    0:22:02 It did not bother me who had the title so long as I ran the company.”
    0:22:07 This focus on substance over status would define his leadership style.
    0:22:13 The established Akron rubber companies barely noticed this upstart, but their indifference created opportunity.
    0:22:22 For two years, Firestone operated as a middleman, buying tires from established manufacturers and adding their patented fastening device.
    0:22:26 Sales grew rapidly, but profits remained elusive.
    0:22:31 Losing money is not pleasant, but every business must at times lose money.
    0:22:37 Losing money is really serious if you do not know why you are losing, or if you do know why and cannot help yourself.
    0:22:40 It was very plain to me why we were losing money.
    0:22:44 We were losing money because we couldn’t control the cost of our tires, Harvey realized.
    0:22:51 They had the best fastening device, but couldn’t price competitively while buying tires from the very companies they competed against.
    0:22:55 The solution was clear but daunting: vertical integration.
    0:23:00 They needed their own manufacturing facility, therefore they needed more capital again.
    0:23:03 Harvey knew this fundraising round would determine their fate.
    0:23:13 Instead of approaching many small investors, he targeted Will Christie, the most influential man in Akron, applying a principle he’d refined through experience.
    0:23:25 A great many salesmen make the mistake of thinking that pestering a man is the same as selling him, and they get their prospects into such a state of exasperation that they would not buy a gold dollar from them at 50% off.
    0:23:27 Just getting to a man is not enough.
    0:23:29 It is when and how you get to him.
    0:23:38 Harvey tracked Christie’s vacation plans, boarded a train to California, checked into the same hotel, and then, quite accidentally, bumped into him at breakfast.
    0:23:41 The staged coincidence worked perfectly.
    0:23:48 By the meal’s end, Harvey had secured $10,000 in investment, which eventually grew to $50,000 with Christie becoming company president.
    0:23:53 With funding secured, Harvey found an abandoned foundry and furnished it frugally.
    0:23:56 We bought everything at the second-hand price.
    0:24:02 You might almost say that we furnished the factory with junk, but it was junk which, with repairs, served our purpose very well.
    0:24:10 Harvey embodied the hands-on founder, simultaneously serving as factory superintendent, office manager, and head of sales.
    0:24:16 By 1903, sales reached $230,000, more than double their previous year.
    0:24:24 But the five-second moment that validated their strategy came with the balance sheet, their first-ever profit of $8,503.
    0:24:31 Despite this long-awaited success, Harvey refused to declare dividends, choosing instead to reinforce their financial position.
    0:24:36 We wanted to save as much as possible for a still-further enlargement of the factory.
    0:24:38 The lesson here is instructive.
    0:24:44 While many companies would have taken the surplus and declared a dividend, Harvey wanted to position the company for the future.
    0:24:53 The cycle of financial discipline begun on Benjamin Firestone’s farm was now powering the early stages of what would become an industrial empire.
    0:24:56 Success brought its own challenges.
    0:25:06 As manufacturers rather than resellers, they faced hostility from established rubber companies who had once welcomed them as customers, but now viewed them as direct competitors.
    0:25:09 Harvey confronted a classic business dilemma.
    0:25:15 Will you cut your quality, reduce prices, and meet competition, or will you try to sell at your present price?
    0:25:18 Either obvious approach meant certain failure.
    0:25:25 Lower prices would erase their hard-won profitability, but they lacked the scale economies to compete at the same price point as industry giants.
    0:25:27 They needed a third option.
    0:25:30 Therefore, innovation became their only path forward.
    0:25:33 Harvey understood a fundamental business truth.
    0:25:39 There is no real profit in high prices because high prices automatically cut down volume.
    0:25:46 But the only possible way to lower prices and still keep business is to save in the cost of manufacturing by improved processes.
    0:25:50 The opportunity lurked in a problem hiding in plain sight.
    0:26:00 The carriage tire trade lacked standardization, forcing dealers to stock hundreds of tire sizes, a massive inventory burden consuming both space and capital.
    0:26:05 What if they could create a standardized product that solved this inventory nightmare?
    0:26:12 George Luddington, a Firestone employee, proposed creating tires in continuous lengths that could be cut to size as needed.
    0:26:16 The concept was elegantly simple, but technically challenging.
    0:26:19 All previous attempts had failed during the rubber curing process.
    0:26:26 Rather than dismissing the idea, Harvey partnered directly with Luddington, working alongside him to solve the problem.
    0:26:31 This wasn’t an executive dictating from above, but a problem solver in the trenches.
    0:26:35 The resulting roll tire transformed the industry.
    0:26:41 Dealers could serve customers with a fraction of previous inventory and Firestone escaped the price war trap.
    0:26:47 As Harvey noted with understated pride, that invention took us completely out of competition.
    0:26:53 This focus on solving genuine problems extended beyond product innovation to customer relationships.
    0:27:00 When Cuban distributor Jose Alvarez complained about defective tires and refused payment, Harvey didn’t argue by mail.
    0:27:03 He sent his representative to Havana immediately with new equipment.
    0:27:07 Carcuff, the Firestone representative, discovered the true issue:
    0:27:11 incorrectly mounted tires due to misunderstood instructions.
    0:27:16 After proper installation, Alvarez insisted on testing the tires himself.
    0:27:25 Imagine this: Alvarez hitches his best horses to a carriage with Carcuff trembling beside him, then drives wildly through Havana,
    0:27:31 turning out of car tracks at full speed and dashing around corners on two wheels like a madman.
    0:27:36 This dramatic demonstration transformed a potential disaster into a triumph.
    0:27:44 Alvarez not only paid in full, but requested an exclusive representation contract, becoming Firestone’s largest single customer for years.
    0:27:50 The lesson is powerful: solving problems at their source builds trust that advertising dollars can’t buy.
    0:27:55 While the customer was wrong, Firestone sent solutions instead of arguments.
    0:28:02 The relationship became so solid that when competitors later tried selling similar tires in Cuba without a license,
    0:28:06 Alvarez reportedly had them jailed until they agreed to stop.
    0:28:11 By refusing the false choice between competing on price or premium positioning,
    0:28:14 Harvey created his own category through innovation,
    0:28:18 a strategy that would repeatedly save the company in the decades ahead.
    0:28:25 While Firestone was thriving with solid rubber tires, a technological revolution loomed ahead.
    0:28:30 Gasoline-powered automobiles required pneumatic tires, air-filled cushions,
    0:28:35 that fundamentally differed from the solid tires that had built Firestone’s company to date.
    0:28:41 Even worse, this new technology was controlled by an entrenched monopoly hostile to newcomers.
    0:28:45 Harvey faced the innovator’s dilemma in its purest form.
    0:28:48 The numbers told a compelling story of success.
    0:28:56 1904 sales had doubled to $460,000, while profit surged nearly ninefold to $71,000.
    0:28:59 Everything pointed to doubling down on what was working.
    0:29:03 But Harvey looked beyond the present numbers to future trends.
    0:29:07 If I read the signs correctly, solid tires would soon be a minor product.
    0:29:12 Most executives would celebrate their success and expand their profitable solid tire business.
    0:29:14 Harvey instead wrote,
    0:29:18 “No business can succeed unless it is constantly revising its product,
    0:29:23 not only to meet the actual demands of today, but also the potential demands of tomorrow.”
    0:29:28 This vision triggered internal conflict so severe that one major shareholder disagreed so vehemently
    0:29:30 that Harvey bought out his stock entirely.
    0:29:34 The future belonged to pneumatic tires, therefore the company needed to adapt
    0:29:36 despite knowing nothing about manufacturing them.
    0:29:40 In addition, the vehicle tire industry operated as a closed cartel.
    0:29:47 The G&J Clincher Tire Association controlled the basic patent and ran a rigid monopoly dictating
    0:29:54 who could manufacture tires, imposing production quotas, and fixing prices across the entire industry.
    0:29:58 Each licensed manufacturer received a designated market percentage
    0:30:01 with excess profits surrendered back to the pool.
    0:30:02 As Harvey noted,
    0:30:04 if these patents held,
    0:30:07 it would have kept the motor industry in the pleasure and sporting class
    0:30:09 until the monopoly had run its course.
    0:30:12 The new age of transport would have been delayed.
    0:30:16 When Harvey approached the association for a license, they flatly refused.
    0:30:19 They didn’t want another competitor diluting their shares.
    0:30:22 True to form, Harvey bounced but didn’t break.
    0:30:27 He began searching for an alternative method of fastening pneumatic tires to rims
    0:30:29 that wouldn’t violate the Clincher patent.
    0:30:32 He discovered a crude but promising approach,
    0:30:37 essentially what would become the straight side tire of today with rim flanges bolted together.
    0:30:39 As Harvey reflected,
    0:30:44 It is a curious coincidence that both the side wire solid tire and the straight side pneumatic tire
    0:30:48 proved to be the only methods for fastening on the heavy tires that were to come.
    0:30:51 But I was forced, as an outsider, into both of them.
    0:30:56 His observation contains a crucial lesson for entrepreneurs and innovators.
    0:31:02 There is always a better way of doing everything than the way which is standard at the moment.
    0:31:06 It is a good thing for a man to be pushed into finding that better way.
    0:31:10 Starting with nothing, Harvey hired a single pneumatic tire maker,
    0:31:13 tucked him into a corner of their shop, and began hand-building tires.
    0:31:19 With no automobile to test them on, he purchased one from New York and had it shipped to Ohio.
    0:31:23 There, they retrofitted the wheels with custom rims and flanges,
    0:31:26 a process filled with unanticipated obstacles.
    0:31:30 Their first road test became an exercise in perseverance.
    0:31:34 Setting out for Harvey’s childhood home 60 miles away,
    0:31:39 what should have been a few hours journey stretched into seven hours of frustration.
    0:31:44 Every few feet, at least that is how it now seems, we had a blowout, he recalled.
    0:31:48 Seven hours of repeated failure would discourage most entrepreneurs,
    0:31:52 but Harvey spent a full year refining both tires and rims until they worked properly.
    0:31:54 Then came an even greater barrier.
    0:31:58 Every automobile in America had been fitted for clincher tires.
    0:32:03 To sell even one set of straight side tires, Firestone would need to convince automobile owners
    0:32:06 that his product justified completely changing their vehicle’s rims,
    0:32:12 dramatically increasing the price while locking them into Firestone as their only tire supplier.
    0:32:15 It was the definition of a hard sell.
    0:32:19 More expensive, riskier, and requiring commitment to an unproven product.
    0:32:21 The question hung in the air.
    0:32:25 How could a small company with a non-standard product possibly break through?
    0:32:30 Just when Firestone’s vehicle tire initiative seemed destined to remain a small experiment,
    0:32:32 opportunity arrived unexpectedly.
    0:32:38 In 1905, Harvey learned that Henry Ford planned to build 2,000 cars priced at $500 each.
    0:32:43 Vehicles meant for ordinary Americans, not just wealthy enthusiasts.
    0:32:47 If these cars shipped with Firestone’s straight side rims instead of clincher rims,
    0:32:50 Harvey would instantly gain 2,000 captive customers.
    0:32:54 There would be no need to convince individual owners to change their rims.
    0:32:56 They’d come equipped from the factory.
    0:32:59 Realizing this, Harvey immediately traveled to Detroit.
    0:33:04 The clincher tire monopoly had quoted Ford $70 per set.
    0:33:08 Therefore, Firestone offered $55, still enough for a healthy profit,
    0:33:12 but a significant saving for Ford’s cost-sensitive manufacturing.
    0:33:18 This first meeting between these future industrial titans revealed their shared outsider status.
    0:33:21 Ford battled patents monopolizing automobile manufacturing,
    0:33:24 while Firestone fought the clincher tire association.
    0:33:29 Both men believed in making their products accessible to average Americans, not just the wealthy.
    0:33:34 If your tire proves to be what you think it is, then we’ll use it, said Ford.
    0:33:41 But true to his meticulous nature, he insisted on 60 days of rigorous road testing before accepting.
    0:33:44 The tires passed Ford’s demanding tests.
    0:33:50 Harvey got an order for 2,000 sets, a potential breakthrough moment, but elation quickly gave way to panic.
    0:33:57 His pneumatic tire department consisted of exactly one person, and they had made only a few tires.
    0:33:59 Now they needed to rapidly scale up.
    0:34:05 Harvey now faced organizing an entire production division, sourcing materials, manufacturing rims,
    0:34:07 and financing this operation overnight.
    0:34:12 He borrowed $5,000 to start, but immediately hit obstacles.
    0:34:17 The handmade rim flanges used in testing proved too expensive and weak for mass production.
    0:34:22 The local company contracted to produce them, quoted $20 per set, but couldn’t meet quality standards.
    0:34:29 Harvey scrambled to find another manufacturer who could deliver superior rims at prices that preserve their profit margins.
    0:34:33 Just as production momentum built, disaster struck.
    0:34:38 After completing 300 tires, representing over $10,000 in borrowed money,
    0:34:42 Ford announced the new model would be delayed for months.
    0:34:49 With commitments for tire parts already totaling another $25,000, Firestone faced financial catastrophe.
    0:34:54 They needed cash from the initial deliveries to repay what they’d already spent.
    0:35:02 Though the company’s 1905 profits reached $122,000, their rapidly expanding business demanded every dollar be reinvested.
    0:35:09 Sales had doubled to $770,000, and their workforce had grown from 12 to 130 employees.
    0:35:16 As Harvey explained with characteristic candor, our profits were book profits, not cash profits.
    0:35:24 The Ford partnership that seemed like salvation now threatened to sink the company before it could deliver a single tire.
    0:35:29 With the Ford order delayed and cash dwindling, Harvey walked the financial tightrope.
    0:35:35 He renewed notes, sold additional stock, and managed cash flow with surgical precision,
    0:35:40 all while facing skepticism from bankers who viewed automobiles as a passing novelty.
    0:35:45 Ironically, this banking skepticism proved beneficial in the long run.
    0:35:50 It is a fortunate thing for the industry that it was not favored by the bankers, Harvey reflected,
    0:35:57 else it would have been financed by bond issues, and there have been several periods when these bond issues might have been foreclosed,
    0:36:00 which would have set back the industry for a number of years.
    0:36:08 The automotive revolution would be built not on debt, but on the audacity of entrepreneurs willing to stake everything on their vision.
    0:36:17 When Ford finally began taking deliveries in 1906, the tires exceeded expectations: large, tough, and durable.
    0:36:21 This established a partnership that would shape both companies for decades.
    0:36:29 As Harvey noted, working with Ford provided steady pressure for higher service and lower prices that prevented complacency.
    0:36:34 Anyone who does business with Mr. Ford never gets a chance to rest and enjoy honors.
    0:36:37 The pressure for better methods is continuous.
    0:36:39 Success revealed yet another challenge.
    0:36:46 Ford customers could only use Firestone’s straight-side tires, but Firestone lacked nationwide distribution.
    0:36:51 People hesitated to buy cars that might not have replacement tires available when needed.
    0:36:56 Ford delivered a clear ultimatum: Firestone would need to make standard clincher tires as well.
    0:37:01 Harvey reluctantly returned to the tire monopoly, renewing his license application.
    0:37:04 The association president once again politely declined.
    0:37:08 The moment stretched into silence as Harvey considered his options.
    0:37:10 Then, with quiet determination:
    0:37:15 If you will not give me a license, then I will go right ahead and make clincher tires without a license.
    0:37:18 And that’s exactly what he did.
    0:37:23 Facing inevitable legal battle against the tire monopoly, Harvey wrote:
    0:37:27 I was mentally, if not financially, prepared for a long fight.
    0:37:31 He took inspiration from Ford’s ongoing battle against the Selden patent,
    0:37:36 a sweeping claim that essentially demanded royalties on all gasoline-powered automobiles.
    0:37:42 When the Selden group threatened to prosecute every Ford car owner for patent violation,
    0:37:46 Ford boldly offered indemnity bonds to each customer.
    0:37:50 Hardly anyone requested them, confirming what Harvey observed:
    0:37:53 The public always roots for the underdog.
    0:37:55 Ford eventually won his case on appeal,
    0:38:01 famously testifying that George Selden has never advanced the automobile industry in a single particular,
    0:38:06 and it would perhaps be further advanced than it is now if he had never been born.
    0:38:09 For Harvey, something unexpected happened.
    0:38:12 The legal notice he braced for never arrived.
    0:38:17 The clincher tire association had become distracted by another infringement case.
    0:38:21 One they ultimately lost when the courts declared their patent invalid.
    0:38:25 Their monopoly collapsed overnight, freeing the entire industry.
    0:38:30 Though, as Harvey wryly noted, another monopoly was shortly to take its place.
    0:38:34 The birth of transformative industries often follows this pattern.
    0:38:37 Pioneers create genuine innovations,
    0:38:42 then opportunists build legal barriers around them, protecting incumbents.
    0:38:48 Edison and Ford, both friends of Harvey, believed that inventors rarely benefited from patent laws.
    0:38:53 The real profits, they argued, flowed to capitalists who controlled the legal machinery.
    0:39:00 Yet inventors like James Dyson in episode 220 demonstrate why some protection remains essential.
    0:39:04 Without it, what incentive exists to invest years perfecting a breakthrough?
    0:39:09 This tension between monopolistic control that stifles progress and legitimate protection
    0:39:13 that rewards innovation remains unresolved a century later.
    0:39:20 The story’s irony is that Harvey, forced outside the patent system, created superior alternatives that might otherwise never have existed.
    0:39:25 Sometimes the greatest innovation happens not because of the system, but despite it.
    0:39:28 1906 marked a turning point for Firestone.
    0:39:32 With Ford as their largest customer, sales hit the million-dollar mark.
    0:39:35 But, as always, success brought complications.
    0:39:40 Despite this milestone, profits actually declined slightly from the previous year.
    0:39:44 And shareholders who had patiently waited began demanding dividends.
    0:39:50 Harvey was left with a choice between satisfying investors in the short term or reinvesting for the long term.
    0:40:00 He crafted a careful compromise, issuing $100,000 in additional stock and declaring modest dividends that preserved cash while placating early investors.
    0:40:05 This balancing act revealed Harvey’s fundamental philosophy about ownership.
    0:40:13 I then and always have regarded the stock of our company as something to buy and hold and not something to speculate in.
    0:40:20 The moment that officers or directors of a company begin to speculate in its stock, the ruin of the company is not far away.
    0:40:25 For it is impossible to serve both the company and the stock market.
    0:40:30 As the industry matured, Harvey observed a subtle but profound shift.
    0:40:35 Fewer people were in the automobile game and more in the automobile business.
    0:40:41 What had started as a novelty for enthusiasts was becoming an essential tool of modern life.
    0:40:44 Driven largely by Ford’s increasingly affordable models.
    0:40:47 But tire manufacturing remained surprisingly primitive.
    0:40:50 It was still more art than science.
    0:40:55 No company could guarantee specific mileage because none had mastered consistent quality.
    0:41:00 Production relied on rule of thumb methods rather than scientific principles.
    0:41:07 Even the raw materials were wildly inconsistent, with rubber from Brazil varying dramatically between shipments.
    0:41:14 Harvey realized that to grow beyond their current position, Firestone needed to transform tire making from craft to science.
    0:41:19 This meant establishing something most smaller manufacturers considered a luxury.
    0:41:20 A laboratory.
    0:41:23 I did not know how really important a laboratory was, he admitted.
    0:41:30 And already having four or five places for every dollar that came in, I had no inclination to look for new ways of spending money.
    0:41:35 Nevertheless, he started modestly, partitioning off a small section of the shop floor.
    0:41:41 This humble beginning opened Harvey’s eyes to what science in manufacturing means.
    0:41:45 And the lab gradually evolved into a powerful technical center.
    0:41:47 Years later, he would declare,
    0:41:52 “I would almost as soon try to make tires without rubber as to try to make them without a chemist.”
    0:41:59 The pattern continued when another industry cartel, the United Rim Company, refused to work with Firestone.
    0:42:04 Rather than capitulating, Harvey launched his own Rim manufacturing division.
    0:42:09 When denied access to established groups, he consistently created alternatives that proved superior.
    0:42:13 “I wanted to keep out of all price fixing or royalty combinations,” he explained.
    0:42:16 “They did not impress me as being good business.”
    0:42:21 Was this moral stance genuine or merely the rationalization of an outsider?
    0:42:29 “The evidence suggests both Harvey and Henry Ford shared a fundamental business philosophy: high volume at low prices.”
    0:42:35 Their vision of making automobiles available to everyone through mass production wasn’t just rhetoric.
    0:42:38 It shaped their operational decisions daily.
    0:42:41 Far from resenting his exclusion from industry cartels,
    0:42:46 Harvey had discovered that constraints often revealed opportunities invisible to insiders.
    0:42:53 Being forced outside standard practices repeatedly led him to innovations that ultimately proved superior to existing methods.
    0:42:56 What’s instructive here is counterintuitive.
    0:42:59 While we all want to be welcome into the established order,
    0:43:03 often being shunned from it forces you to find another better way.
    0:43:09 This ability to adapt and turn constraints into advantages would soon be tested on a much larger scale.
    0:43:17 Firestone had developed a philosophy on business planning that balanced preparation with flexibility.
    0:43:21 He said the biggest thing in business is to be working and planning ahead.
    0:43:28 Planning ahead for production, for sales, for new developments in the art, for money, for sources of supply.
    0:43:32 Yet he also recognized the danger of rigidity.
    0:43:35 A too rigid plan may be worse than no plan at all.
    0:43:39 This balanced approach would soon face its ultimate test.
    0:43:43 In 1907, just as Firestone was experiencing tremendous growth,
    0:43:46 the Knickerbocker Trust Company in New York suddenly failed,
    0:43:50 triggering a financial panic that spread like wildfire.
    0:43:52 Harvey was in New York when the crisis erupted.
    0:43:58 He immediately telephoned the factory to halt all operations until he could assess the situation.
    0:44:06 The financial world transformed overnight as money vanished all at once and clearing house certificates had to take the place of currency.
    0:44:12 When he approached his bank for additional credit against his established $60,000 line,
    0:44:21 they not only refused, but they demanded he reduce his $20,000 note by at least $5,000 when it came due in November.
    0:44:29 At that moment, with the entire financial system seizing up, most companies either froze in panic or desperately sought concessions.
    0:44:31 Harvey took a different approach.
    0:44:37 When a carload of rubber arrived in Akron with payment due, he simply told the truth to his supplier.
    0:44:38 He couldn’t pay immediately.
    0:44:41 The response revealed how universal the crisis was.
    0:44:44 “Unload it and use it and pay for it when you can.
    0:44:45 We’re all in the same boat.”
    0:44:47 Then came the defining moment.
    0:44:51 When his bank note came due, Firestone didn’t just reduce it as requested.
    0:44:54 He paid it in full and immediately closed his account.
    0:45:00 It was a bold statement of independence from a bank that had shown little faith during difficult times.
    0:45:02 Firestone understood a key lesson.
    0:45:06 A good partner reveals themselves more in the bad times than the good times.
    0:45:10 The panic subsided almost as quickly as it erupted.
    0:45:17 And as Harvey noted with characteristic understatement, it left us in better condition than we ever were.
    0:45:24 By 1910, sales had soared to $5 million, with profits exceeding $1.3 million.
    0:45:29 What’s instructive here is how Firestone positioned himself before the crisis struck.
    0:45:32 He wasn’t predicting how the future would play out.
    0:45:35 He was just positioning for multiple possible futures.
    0:45:42 While others scrambled for survival during the panic, Harvey had maintained sufficient reserves to not only weather the storm, but capitalize on it.
    0:45:46 His father’s lesson about keeping a surplus proved crucial once again.
    0:45:48 Positioning is leverage.
    0:45:52 When everyone else is desperate, the person with options holds all the power.
    0:45:57 John D. Rockefeller said, “The best feed during the depressions.”
    0:46:04 By 1910, Firestone Tire Company had exploded from 12 employees to 1,000 in just eight years.
    0:46:09 This growth created a management challenge that forced Harvey to confront a fundamental question:
    0:46:13 How could he maintain control without becoming a bottleneck?
    0:46:17 The business, he wrote, was already too large for me to look after alone.
    0:46:22 And yet, I did not believe, and I never have believed in what’s called delegation, he reflected.
    0:46:25 His leadership philosophy was refreshingly direct.
    0:46:29 If anything in the business is wrong, the fault is squarely with management.
    0:46:30 The fault is mine.
    0:46:33 That is my conception of business.
    0:46:35 This is the OG founder’s mode.
    0:46:40 Harvey’s management style remained stubbornly focused on simplicity.
    0:46:44 He tackled one task at a time and avoided hasty decisions.
    0:46:49 Rather than writing memos, he called people directly or spoke to them by phone, noting that
    0:46:52 the writing of letters can be a great time waster.
    0:46:56 One can only imagine what he’d say about today’s email culture.
    0:47:01 Even his approach to financial planning resisted unnecessary complexity.
    0:47:05 While maintaining an official 12-month budget for the board, he recognized its limitations.
    0:47:10 If it were possible to plan for a year ahead, then there would be no need for judgment or management.
    0:47:14 Any question that came up could be settled by referring to the plan.
    0:47:19 Instead, he operated on a four-month cycle that aligned with rubber purchasing periods.
    0:47:25 This skepticism towards rigid planning reflected his deeper desire to separate fact from fiction.
    0:47:29 I want to know when I am guessing and when I’m dealing with facts.
    0:47:38 But Harvey’s most transformative contribution came from ruthlessly applying two deceptively simple questions to every operation.
    0:47:39 Is it necessary?
    0:47:41 And can it be simplified?
    0:47:48 These questions revealed that many established practices were merely traditions masquerading as requirements.
    0:47:54 Consider the industry-wide belief that rubber required lengthy aging in warehouses before use.
    0:48:01 When Harvey questioned this expensive and time-consuming practice, no one could explain why it was necessary.
    0:48:04 He suggested bypassing it as an experiment.
    0:48:10 The results, the unaged tires, performed just as well, saving the company millions of dollars.
    0:48:17 Someone back in the past must have laid down the rule that rubber had to age, he observed, and everyone else had followed it, without question.
    0:48:22 This relentless questioning transformed operations throughout the company.
    0:48:25 Manufacturing turnover dropped from 60 to 15 days.
    0:48:31 Defects plummeted while output increased, all while using less factory space.
    0:48:38 As the company expanded nationally, Harvey initially appointed independent distributors with exclusive territories.
    0:48:45 But by 1913, he realized many distributors lacked his and Ford’s vision for the automotive future.
    0:48:53 Therefore, he slashed the network and established company-owned branches to directly control both product and service.
    0:48:59 The growth eventually led to what seemed like an inevitable milestone: the National Sales Convention.
    0:49:11 “At the time of our first convention,” he wrote, “we could not afford to spend that money, but also we thought we could not afford not to have a convention, else our men in the field might think we were not worth working for.”
    0:49:15 The first modest gathering of 20 people proved genuinely valuable.
    0:49:20 Distributors witnessed tire manufacturing firsthand and met the leadership team.
    0:49:23 But success bred excess.
    0:49:35 One successful convention spawned specialized events for every type of employee, with elaborate productions, photographers, fancy booklets, and what Harvey called “manufactured enthusiasm.”
    0:49:45 This organizational bloat reached its absurd peak with Milestones, a legitimate general interest magazine featuring famous writers and expensive cover art.
    0:49:52 Though it cost 20 cents per copy to produce, dealers bought it for 5 cents, and circulation reached 1 million copies.
    0:49:57 As Harley dryly noted, “As advertising, it was worth to us exactly nothing.”
    0:50:03 The wake-up call came when Harvey discovered salespeople boasting about selling marketing materials rather than tires.
    0:50:09 Upon learning, a whole department existed solely to bill advertising materials.
    0:50:16 He asked the crucial question, “Are we in the business of selling tires, or are we publishers and sellers of advertising?”
    0:50:26 He answered by immediately killing both the magazine and the entire advertising billing department, refocusing the sales team on the core mission selling tires.
    0:50:34 What’s instructive here is how growth naturally creates complexity that quietly erodes focus and takes on a life of its own.
    0:50:50 Even with a leader as vigilant as Harvey, organizational bloat crept in convention upon convention, departments upon departments, costs upon costs, all seemingly reasonable in isolation but collectively diverting resources from the core business.
    0:50:56 Nobody can maintain the focus of a company like its CEO, especially the founder.
    0:51:07 The remedy wasn’t more sophisticated systems or additional oversight, but rather returning to the foundational questions, “Is it necessary? Can it be simplified?”
    0:51:15 These questions cut through the organizational inertia that transformed successful companies into bureaucratic zombies.
    0:51:23 The greatest advantage often comes from not working harder within complexity, but from the clarity to recognize and eliminate it.
    0:51:27 Remember, simplicity scales, fancy fails.
    0:51:32 As World War I approached, the Firestone Tire Company was expanding rapidly.
    0:51:46 Their factories nearly tripled in size within five years, including a facility dedicated exclusively to producing a single tire size, an early application of Harvey’s simplification philosophy that mirrored Ford’s own manufacturing focus.
    0:51:52 When America entered World War I in 1917, production priorities shifted dramatically.
    0:51:57 Nearly all output diverted to government contracts, manufacturing tires for military vehicles and trucks.
    0:52:03 But this wartime pressure revealed an opportunity that would transform American transportation forever.
    0:52:12 Before the war, Harvey wrote, “Comparatively few automobiles were used for business and the truck had not established itself as an economical form of transportation.
    0:52:16 Long hauls by trucks were unknown, excepting as stunts.
    0:52:17 The war changed all that.
    0:52:19 The war was fought with trucks.”
    0:52:24 While most saw only wartime disruption, Harvey spotted a solution to a critical infrastructure problem.
    0:52:31 America’s railroads had become hopelessly bottlenecked with military shipments threatening to strangle the domestic economy.
    0:52:38 In 1918, with the railroads clogged with government freight, I started the ship-by-truck movement, Harvey explained.
    0:52:40 His insight was simple but revolutionary.
    0:52:43 Trucks could complement rail service perfectly.
    0:52:54 Railroads excelled at moving large volumes over long distances, but trucks offered superior flexibility for shorter hauls, where loading, unloading, and switching rail cars wasted precious time.
    0:53:03 Picture America’s transportation system in 1918, a nation built around railroads suddenly found its arteries clogged during wartime.
    0:53:09 The economy needed an alternative and Harvey provided it through a campaign that was both visionary and pragmatic.
    0:53:17 Firestone trucks emblazoned with ship-by-truck Firestone banners toured the country as moving billboards.
    0:53:25 Harvey authored influential articles declaring “ship-by-truck” as the traffic motto of today and the future.
    0:53:34 He established ship-by-truck clubs among freight operators nationwide and created early freight brokerages that connected shippers with truck owners looking for loads.
    0:53:37 The timing couldn’t have been more perfect.
    0:53:44 Henry Ford had just introduced the Model TT in 1917, America’s first mass-produced one-ton truck.
    0:53:51 As Harvey drummed up demand for trucking services, Ford supplied affordable vehicles, many riding on Firestone tires.
    0:53:56 Their complementary visions created a multiplier effect that transformed American logistics.
    0:54:03 Registered trucks in the United States soared from 215,000 in 1916 to over 1 million by 1920.
    0:54:09 What’s instructive is how Harvey consistently positioned himself at the intersection of major trends.
    0:54:14 Rather than just selling tires, he created entire ecosystems that expanded his market.
    0:54:17 The ship-by-truck movement wasn’t merely clever marketing.
    0:54:22 It was infrastructure development that benefited both the nation and Firestone’s bottom line.
    0:54:33 By catching the right wave of transportation evolution, Harvey transformed his company from a mere supplier into an essential catalyst for America’s economic modernization.
    0:54:37 Then came the boom, the biggest boom the country has ever known, Firestone recalled.
    0:54:40 Although keep in mind these words were written in the mid-1920s.
    0:54:46 During 1919, we produced more than 4 million tires and made a profit of more than $9 million.
    0:54:49 We could not keep up with demand.
    0:54:54 The railroads remained congested and dealers were willing to pay premiums simply to secure deliveries.
    0:54:58 Prices did not matter, he noted, delivery was the thing.
    0:55:01 Success masked a dangerous delusion.
    0:55:12 Firestone’s Akron headquarters sprouted an elaborate hierarchy: East, West, and South divisions, each with their own managers, sub-managers, and accounting departments.
    0:55:19 This complexity multiplied at every branch, as each location developed many empires of specialized assistants.
    0:55:24 The sales force ballooned to a thousand people while paperwork multiplied even faster.
    0:55:28 Years later, Harvey was refreshingly honest about this period.
    0:55:31 I do not know where this organization bug came from.
    0:55:35 But like the flu, it hit nearly everyone in the country.
    0:55:39 I am free to confess what it did to us, for it is over with and we are immune.
    0:55:41 Here’s the dangerous part.
    0:55:43 All this organizational bloat seemed to be working.
    0:55:45 Sales kept growing.
    0:55:49 Therefore, everyone assumed their elaborate systems were brilliant and necessary.
    0:55:57 Harvey later realized they would have shown as startling an increase had we abolished our whole sales force, closed all our branches and dealers,
    0:56:04 and just sent out our tires and freight cars to be thrown off on sidings and taken away by clamoring buyers.
    0:56:07 They were succeeding despite their organization, not because of it.
    0:56:13 The post-war boom had papered over fundamental inefficiencies that would soon be brutally exposed.
    0:56:17 The prosperity of 1919 bred dangerous complacency.
    0:56:27 As Harvey observed, in 1919 to 1920, the presidents and other high officers of companies began to get the idea that they needed rest and recreation and plenty of it.
    0:56:35 An executive felt embarrassed if discovered within 1,000 miles of his job, for of course a good executive always delegated his duties.
    0:56:40 Harvey had rented a house in England for summer 1920, but something was nagging at him.
    0:56:45 Despite record profits and insatiable demand, he sensed the boom couldn’t last.
    0:56:54 In May, at business’s peak, he gathered 800 foremen at his family farm with a prescient warning, “Be prepared to slow down.”
    0:56:56 Then he sailed for Europe anyway.
    0:57:00 By this time, Firestone had accumulated massive financial exposure.
    0:57:06 $35 million in borrowed money and unprecedented long-term contracts for raw materials.
    0:57:13 The word had gone around in the tire industry that the man who could get fabric would get the business, Harvey explained.
    0:57:16 We had never made long contracts ahead for fabric.
    0:57:19 But that year, we made several three-year contracts.
    0:57:21 And of course, at high prices.
    0:57:23 Everything was at high prices.
    0:57:27 Sales held strong through June, but July brought the first cracks.
    0:57:32 Inventory began accumulating while Harvey received increasingly urgent cables from Europe.
    0:57:39 Sales were slowing, factories ran at full capacity, contracted materials kept arriving, and cash was evaporating.
    0:57:47 Initially, Harvey stayed put, reasoning, it would be a good thing to have a little vacation before confronting the inevitable crisis.
    0:57:50 But a final desperate cable forced his hand.
    0:57:52 Sales had stopped completely.
    0:57:57 Borrowing capacity was exhausted, and bills were coming due with no means to pay them.
    0:58:00 Harvey cut short his vacation and took the next steamer home.
    0:58:05 Company officers met him at the dock with what he described as doleful faces.
    0:58:08 Over lunch, they painted a grim picture.
    0:58:10 $43 million in debt.
    0:58:11 No willing banks.
    0:58:13 Factories producing tires nobody wanted.
    0:58:17 And contracted materials arriving they couldn’t pay for.
    0:58:19 The executives saw no way forward.
    0:58:20 It was over.
    0:58:21 Or so they thought.
    0:58:27 Arriving in Akron on Friday morning, Harvey surveyed the crisis and made a characteristic decision.
    0:58:30 I will not tackle this job until Monday.
    0:58:33 He retreated to his family homestead for solitary reflection.
    0:58:35 By Saturday, his mind was clear.
    0:58:40 He summoned the assistant sales manager to arrange Monday meetings with key sales personnel.
    0:58:42 Their reports were unanimous.
    0:58:43 There is no business.
    0:58:48 The dealers are not only stocked, but also demoralized and will not buy.
    0:58:52 Without hesitation, Harvey took direct control, telling the sales manager to take a vacation
    0:58:54 while he personally ran the department.
    0:58:57 Here’s where most executives would have panicked.
    0:58:59 But Harvey found the crisis energizing.
    0:59:02 The situation did not frighten me.
    0:59:04 It put new life into me.
    0:59:07 I saw the opportunity to do more business than we had ever done.
    0:59:09 His diagnosis was simple.
    0:59:13 The public still needed tires, but they are not going to buy at present prices.
    0:59:15 His solution shocked everyone.
    0:59:18 Slash prices by 25% across the board.
    0:59:21 We are in the business of making and selling tires.
    0:59:24 The factory here is piled to the roof with unsold tires.
    0:59:26 All the branches are full of tires.
    0:59:28 And so are all your dealers.
    0:59:30 Our tires have to be turned into cash.
    0:59:33 His sales team couldn’t comprehend such drastic action.
    0:59:37 Some argued for modest 10 to 15% reductions.
    0:59:38 Harvey stood firm.
    0:59:43 Not revealing he’d actually considered cutting prices by 33 and one third percent.
    0:59:46 A small reduction would not give the smash we had to have.
    0:59:48 The big dramatic play.
    0:59:52 Those who couldn’t embrace the strategy had to be let out.
    0:59:55 This was no time for half-hearted work.
    0:59:58 Implementation matched the strategy’s boldness.
    1:00:01 Harvey personally addressed dealer meetings nationwide.
    1:00:11 The company bought full-page newspaper ads and hung enormous red banners proclaiming Firestone tires 25% discount on dealer shops across America.
    1:00:14 It was a fire sale for the first time in our history.
    1:00:17 We thrust aside all our dignity and customs.
    1:00:20 We plastered the country with our slogan.
    1:00:25 Competitors initially held their prices, giving Firestone crucial market exclusivity.
    1:00:29 Our competitors fought us for about a month, as I thought they would.
    1:00:31 Then they trailed after us with cuts.
    1:00:33 But I only needed that month’s start.
    1:00:35 The gamble worked brilliantly.
    1:00:41 In September and October 1920 alone, Firestone sold $18 million worth of tires
    1:00:46 and reduced debt from nearly $44 million to just over $31 million.
    1:00:50 What’s instructive here is Harvey’s counterintuitive response to the crisis.
    1:00:55 While his executives saw only disaster, he recognized opportunity disguised as catastrophe.
    1:01:07 Most leaders facing such circumstances either freeze in analysis paralysis or make incremental adjustments that preserve dignity but fail to match the problem’s magnitude.
    1:01:09 Harvey chose the third path.
    1:01:15 Dramatic action that seemed reckless but was actually precisely calibrated to market conditions.
    1:01:23 His willingness to thrust aside dignity and act decisively when competitors hesitated created the opening he needed.
    1:01:27 Sometimes the best strategy isn’t the most sophisticated one.
    1:01:31 It’s the one bold enough to cut through the noise and force immediate market response.
    1:01:36 The other thing that’s interesting here to me is that he got rid of people who were only half-hearted.
    1:01:42 He put the sales manager on vacation and took his job, removed salespeople that wouldn’t get on board.
    1:01:45 As he said, it was no time for half-hearted work.
    1:01:47 The bold price cuts were just the beginning.
    1:01:55 The crisis forced Harvey to confront the organizational bloat that had metastasized during the boom years and he responded with surgical precision.
    1:01:59 The advertising department slashed from 105 people to seven.
    1:02:05 The elaborate divisional structure completely scrapped with all branches now reporting directly to Harvey.
    1:02:15 Each location was stripped to its essentials, just a sales manager and office manager with the sales manager expected to actively sell rather than supervise.
    1:02:21 For every position, Harvey asked one brutal question: Can we get along without this job?
    1:02:25 By 1921, the sales force had been cut by 75%.
    1:02:29 Those who remained faced intense pressure and lower salaries.
    1:02:35 He was deliberately filtering for people who could stand the gaffe and these were the only men we wanted.
    1:02:38 Manufacturing had spawned similar excesses.
    1:02:45 Vice presidents, department heads, and multiple management layers generating an avalanche of memos, reports, and meetings.
    1:02:48 Harvey later recalled with dark humor:
    1:02:55 We wrote so many notes that the vice presidents and their assistants and their assistants often used to get a day or two behind in the reading of them.
    1:03:00 And we had to devise a bright red interoffice telegram for really urgent business.
    1:03:03 The crisis prompted radical simplification.
    1:03:05 The charts went out the window.
    1:03:07 We abolished offices and departments.
    1:03:10 We called for all the forms that were in use.
    1:03:16 The statistics department shrank from 35 people to three while maintaining access to essential information.
    1:03:19 The office force dropped from 1,000 to 800.
    1:03:22 Recovery proved slow and painful.
    1:03:26 Profits for 1921 totaled less than $1 million.
    1:03:31 But through relentless discipline, Harvey achieved what had seemed impossible.
    1:03:37 By October 31st, 1924, the company did not owe a dollar to any bank.
    1:03:41 Reflecting on this period, Harvey distilled the experience into enduring wisdom.
    1:03:53 By hammering on economies, by pressing sales and qualities, and by never fooling ourselves as to where we stood, we had wiped out an indebtedness which at one time was thought to be crushing.
    1:04:02 What’s instructive here is how the crisis revealed what was actually necessary versus what merely felt important during prosperous times.
    1:04:08 When survival was at stake, Harvey discovered that most of the organizational complexity they’d built was theater.
    1:04:11 Impressive looking, but fundamentally useless.
    1:04:14 As I like to say, simple scales and fancy fails.
    1:04:20 Elaborate systems often collapse under pressure, while simple, focused operations prove anti-fragile.
    1:04:24 Sometimes you need a crisis to show you what really matters.
    1:04:27 Success sows the seeds of its own destruction.
    1:04:37 Harvey’s autobiography ends in the mid-1920s with a fascinating reflection on why he kept working despite having already made his fortune.
    1:04:53 There is a notion, he wrote, that if a man has established a business and accumulated a certain competence and then keeps on working, it is only because he is greedy and wants more and more money and that eventually he just becomes a slave, a slave to money.
    1:04:59 Harvey completely rejected this view after 25 years of building his company, he had no plans to stop.
    1:05:08 He didn’t care whether he was the slave or the master of that business because, as he wrote, the job is worth doing as either master or servant.
    1:05:15 This mindset explains why Harvey handled the 1920 crisis so differently from his panicked executives.
    1:05:22 The bold 25% price cut reflected his genuine belief that challenges make businesses worthwhile.
    1:05:31 As he put it, the very worries and insistent demands on one’s mentality and physique are a joy for their tests and challenges.
    1:05:38 This reminds me of Brad Jacobs and his mentor and the conversation they had around problems.
    1:05:40 Business is just a series of problems.
    1:05:41 They’re just opportunities.
    1:05:43 You better get used to it.
    1:05:46 For Harvey, business wasn’t a game to be won or a science to be mastered.
    1:05:48 It was something more fundamental.
    1:05:52 You couldn’t build it and walk away because no business will run itself.
    1:05:58 That’s why he demolished elaborate management structures the moment they stopped serving their purpose.
    1:06:02 Money mattered, certainly, but his actions revealed deeper motivations.
    1:06:09 When he personally took over sales during the crisis, slash prices, and cut organizational fat, he was fighting for something beyond wealth.
    1:06:11 He was fighting for the work itself.
    1:06:23 He maintained a practical view of profits, deliberately causing a business to operate without profits through some foggy concept of benevolence is only another way of destroying the service of that business.
    1:06:29 This clear-eyed approach helped him navigate both boom and bust with equal effectiveness.
    1:06:35 What’s instructive here is Harvey’s understanding that meaningful work provides its own compensation beyond money.
    1:06:44 People need to be a part of something larger than themselves and find genuine satisfaction in solving problems, building systems, and creating value.
    1:06:49 It turns out these remain engaging regardless of financial position.
    1:06:56 The best founders aren’t motivated by money, but rather the reward of building something that matters with the people they love.
    1:07:06 Beyond balance sheets and profit margins, Harvey was driven by something deeper, business as a school of experience that provided unparalleled opportunities for growth.
    1:07:16 What truly satisfied him was the greatest pleasure is in doing something to help others to help themselves, not through charity, but through genuine opportunities for independence.
    1:07:24 His ship-by-truck movement exemplified this philosophy, opening doors for countless entrepreneurs in trucking and transportation.
    1:07:30 Even during brutal cost-cutting, he was fighting to save the company that provided thousands of livelihoods.
    1:07:32 I like people, Harvey wrote.
    1:07:37 And business brings one in close contact with a never-ending stream of people.
    1:07:45 This human connection shaped his leadership style, personally hitting the road during crisis instead of hiding beneath memos and management layers.
    1:07:57 What ultimately sustained Harvey was the supreme satisfaction of accomplishment, of planning to do something and carrying through those plans against all obstacles to a final accomplishment.
    1:08:12 The obstacles had been formidable, launching against established competitors, pivoting from carriage to automobile to tires, pioneering truck tires, surviving financial booms and collapses, and building an international enterprise.
    1:08:20 Harvey stepped down as president in 1932, turning over operations to his son while remaining chairman until his death in 1938.
    1:08:32 By then, the company he’d started with 12 employees commanded 25% of the entire U.S. tire market, with sales exceeding 156 million.
    1:08:38 Beyond business success, Harvey became legendary for his friendships with Henry Ford and Thomas Edison.
    1:08:47 Their famous vagabonds camping trips captured America’s imagination, symbolizing the nation’s transformation into the automobile age.
    1:08:56 After Harvey’s death, Firestone remained in family hands for decades, playing a crucial role during World War II and expanding globally through the post-war boom.
    1:09:02 Though Bridgestone acquired the company in 1988, the Firestone brand endures today.
    1:09:06 Harvey’s core business philosophy remains strikingly relevant.
    1:09:09 Capital isn’t that important in business.
    1:09:11 Experience isn’t that important.
    1:09:12 You can get both.
    1:09:14 What is important is ideas.
    1:09:21 I would add, and determination, and persistence, and all the things that we talk about on the Outliers series.
    1:09:30 His emphasis on innovation over resources, people over systems, and integrity as the keystone of business continues resonating today.
    1:09:36 What’s most instructive about Harvey’s legacy isn’t the size of the empire he built, but how he built it.
    1:09:45 Through relentless questioning of assumptions, maintaining financial discipline during both boom and bust, and never losing sight of the human element in business.
    1:09:55 He proved that sustainable success comes from not following industry conventions, but from having the courage to find better ways when established paths don’t serve your vision.
    1:10:08 His story reminds us all that the most powerful competitive advantage often lies not in what you know, but in your willingness to challenge what everyone else assumes to be true.
    1:10:16 Okay, let’s dive into the reflections and afterthoughts, and I have a few comments before we get to the lessons that we can take away from Harvey.
    1:10:19 Well, what an amazing entrepreneur he was.
    1:10:20 What a force.
    1:10:33 I first came across the book, Men in Rubber, I think it was about 10 years ago, and I picked it up just randomly at a bookstore, and I was so surprised by the amount of wisdom in this book that I started buying copies for all my friends.
    1:10:38 And at one point, I think I probably owned about five or 10% of the inventory in this book.
    1:10:42 You could only get it used, and it was becoming increasingly hard to find.
    1:10:47 So I wanted to make this book easier for everyone to get their hands on, so we republished it.
    1:10:58 You can go on Amazon now and look up Men in Rubber, Harvey Firestone, and you can get a copy in hardcover, in softcover, Audible, and in Kindle.
    1:11:05 And we wanted that because we just wanted everybody in the world to have access to this information, so I hope you enjoy the book.
    1:11:13 So there’s an interesting anecdote in the book about Henry Ford that I think is worth highlighting, and I’m going to read you a direct excerpt here.
    1:11:17 It’s commonly imagined that Mr. Ford arrives at his decisions quickly.
    1:11:22 Nothing could be farther from the fact he reaches his decisions slowly and alone.
    1:11:33 He does not jump at anything, and so when the time comes for execution, everything moves with marvelous rapidity because everything has been previously thought through and planned.
    1:11:40 He has had the time to do this thinking and planning because he has used his time himself instead of permitting others to use it for him.
    1:11:49 And he is certain that plans will be executed for him because he knows how to let men go when they grow too rich and lazy to execute.
    1:11:58 There’s a lot of wisdom in that, and the two most profound sort of lessons in that excerpt are one, thinking through things slowly and taking control of your time.
    1:12:09 And the second is a bit ruthless but obvious too, which is you need to learn to let people go when they, and quote, unquote, become too rich and lazy to execute.
    1:12:14 And I think that’s really interesting, especially in the time that we’re in today of unparalleled AI transition.
    1:12:19 And a lot of people are going to struggle because the easy parts of your job no longer exist.
    1:12:29 Another excerpt from the book that I wanted to work in, and I think highlights a valuable lesson, but I couldn’t find a really good way to do it, was, I’m going to read you the excerpt.
    1:12:35 “Quick decisions that have not behind them a long train of thought are exceedingly dangerous.
    1:12:41 Personally, I do not want to have around me the kind of man who can give me an instant decision on anything that I may bring up.
    1:12:49 For if he has not had the opportunity to give the question serious thought, then he is only guessing, and I can do my own guessing.”
    1:12:52 And that excerpt, a couple things I want to point out there.
    1:12:53 One, I like that.
    1:12:56 He wanted to be surrounded by people who have thought.
    1:13:02 The second thing I want to say is the book was published in 1926, so keep that in mind with some of these excerpts.
    1:13:11 The language about men, you know, there’s some other a little bit scandalous language in the book itself, but for the time, it was sort of in line.
    1:13:16 And I didn’t make any effort to edit any of that when we republished it.
    1:13:25 The other thing I want to point out just before we get to the lessons is that parts of this episode are entirely read by AI, an AI version of me.
    1:13:28 And I’m playing around with AI a lot.
    1:13:29 And I’m so curious.
    1:13:32 It allows me to do things that I can’t otherwise do.
    1:13:35 And I’m wondering, you know, what you think of that.
    1:13:39 If you actually identified the paragraphs or sections that are AI based, send me an email.
    1:13:42 And hopefully you like it.
    1:13:45 It allows me to do more and scale better.
    1:13:48 And I’m going to increasingly play around with it.
    1:13:50 And yeah.
    1:13:51 Okay.
    1:13:53 Let’s dive into the lessons here.
    1:13:55 So Harvey was a force.
    1:13:57 This book is packed with wisdom.
    1:14:02 I got 14 lessons as I was rereading this book and doing this episode.
    1:14:05 So the first is a taste for salt water.
    1:14:08 Most people quit when things get uncomfortable.
    1:14:10 Harvey thrived on challenges.
    1:14:16 When faced with a $43 million debt crisis in 1920, he said the situation did not frighten me.
    1:14:18 It put new life into me.
    1:14:21 Well, as executives panicked, he saw opportunity.
    1:14:24 Excellent isn’t about avoiding difficulty.
    1:14:31 It’s about developing a perverse appreciation for discomfort that reveals who you really are.
    1:14:33 Two, obsess over inputs.
    1:14:39 Harvey’s father taught him that a fine crop one year was more or less a fortunate accident.
    1:14:43 Instead of chasing results, Harvey focused on controlling what he could.
    1:14:49 Maintaining surplus, inventory, questioning every process and building systematic advantages.
    1:14:51 Results are lagging indicators.
    1:14:55 The only thing you can control is the process.
    1:14:57 Three, high agency.
    1:15:03 When industry cartels repeatedly excluded Harvey from tire associations and rim companies,
    1:15:05 he didn’t just accept defeat.
    1:15:07 He created superior alternatives.
    1:15:13 There is always a better way of doing everything than the way which is standard at the moment.
    1:15:17 It is a good thing for a man to be pushed into finding that better way.
    1:15:23 High agency means treating every no as research, not rejection.
    1:15:27 Create what you’re denied access to.
    1:15:29 Four, the courage to close doors.
    1:15:39 Harvey could have stayed in the profitable solid tire business but recognized that solid tires would soon be a minor product long before that was conventional wisdom.
    1:15:45 Despite the internal resistance that was so strong that he had to buy out a major shareholder.
    1:15:47 He pivoted to the tires we know today.
    1:15:51 Sometimes you have to kill good options to pursue great ones.
    1:15:53 Bias toward action.
    1:15:59 When the 1920 crisis hit, Harvey didn’t form committees or hire consultants.
    1:16:05 He took the next steamer home, personally ran sales, and implemented a 25% cut within days.
    1:16:10 A small reduction would not give the smash we had to have the big dramatic play.
    1:16:15 Speed beats perfection when conditions demand decisive action.
    1:16:17 Six, find the lever.
    1:16:23 Rather than competing directly with established tire companies, Harvey solved the industry’s inventory nightmare with roll tires.
    1:16:25 The dealers could cut to size.
    1:16:34 This innovation took us completely out of competition by eliminating the constraint that everyone else just accepted as permanent.
    1:16:38 Seven, out think, don’t just out work.
    1:16:44 Harvey’s two questions, is it necessary and can it be simplified, transformed operations throughout Firestone.
    1:16:50 When he questioned the industry belief that rubber needed aging, nobody could explain why.
    1:16:53 Eliminating this unnecessary step saved millions.
    1:17:00 The greatest advantage often comes not from working harder within complexity, but finding the clarity to recognize and eliminating it.
    1:17:03 Eight, bounce, don’t break.
    1:17:06 Every rejection became Harvey’s competitive advantage.
    1:17:11 Excluded from the clincher tire association, he developed straight sided tires.
    1:17:14 Refused by the rim company, he started his own manufacturing.
    1:17:18 Each setback revealed opportunities invisible to insiders.
    1:17:21 Nine, positioning is leverage.
    1:17:28 Harvey’s father taught him that a surplus was the greatest aid to business judgment and the key to being master of your own circumstances.
    1:17:34 Harvey applied this principle during the 1907 panic, maintaining reserves and a margin of safety.
    1:17:39 While his competitors scrambled to save their businesses, Harvey aggressively expanded.
    1:17:42 Ten, win by not losing.
    1:17:49 Harvey avoided the too obvious responses to competitive pressure, cutting quality or cutting prices without operational changes.
    1:17:52 Instead, he innovated his way out of the trap.
    1:17:58 Success often comes not from brilliance, but from disciplined avoidance of stupidity.
    1:18:03 As I like to say, avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.
    1:18:06 11, always be unforced.
    1:18:08 Harvey refused to make decisions from weakness.
    1:18:13 During the 1920s crisis, he told his team, “I will not tackle this job until Monday.”
    1:18:16 And retreated to think clearly.
    1:18:20 Even under extreme pressure, he acted from choice, not from panic.
    1:18:22 Only move when you choose to.
    1:18:26 12, never delegate core responsibilities.
    1:18:32 While Firestone grew his company to thousands of employees, he maintained personal control over critical functions.
    1:18:37 During crisis, he didn’t rely on managers, but took direct command of sales.
    1:18:38 His philosophy was clear.
    1:18:42 If anything in the business is wrong, the fault is squarely with management.
    1:18:43 The fault is mind.
    1:18:47 True leadership means accepting ultimate responsibility.
    1:18:52 13, simple scales, fancy fails.
    1:19:00 During the boom, Firestone developed elaborate hierarchies, specialized conventions, and even published a million circulation magazine.
    1:19:02 The crisis revealed this was all theater.
    1:19:03 Harvey’s two questions.
    1:19:04 Is it necessary?
    1:19:06 And can it be simplified?
    1:19:13 Cut through organizational bloat that transforms successful companies into bureaucratic zombies.
    1:19:17 And finally, 14, catch the right wave.
    1:19:20 Harvey positioned himself at the intersection of major trends.
    1:19:21 The shift to automobiles.
    1:19:22 The rise of trucking.
    1:19:26 The need for transportation alternatives during World War I.
    1:19:34 Rather than predicting the future, he positioned himself for multiple possible futures and rode the waves that materialized.
    1:19:38 I hope you learned as much as I did through listening to this episode.
    1:19:40 This man was a fascinating guy.
    1:19:43 And I appreciate you listening to the outlier series.
    1:19:53 Thanks for listening and learning with us.
    1:19:58 And be sure to sign up for my free weekly newsletter at fs.blog/newsletter.
    1:20:01 I hope you enjoyed my reflections at the end of this episode.
    1:20:03 That’s normally reserved for members.
    1:20:07 But with this outlier series, I wanted to make them available to everyone.
    1:20:22 The Farnham Street website is where you can get more info on our membership program, which includes access to episode transcripts, reflections for all episodes, my updated repository featuring highlights from the books used in this series and more.
    1:20:27 Plus, be sure to follow myself and Farnham Street on X, Instagram, and LinkedIn.
    1:20:31 If you like what we’re doing here, leaving a rating and review would mean the world.
    1:20:35 And if you really like us, sharing with a friend is the best way to grow this special series.
    1:20:36 Until next time.

    Most people fear a $43 million debt. Harvey Firestone called it “invigorating.” When his company faced collapse in 1920 and his executives panicked, Firestone seized control. He fired the sales manager, slashed prices 25%, and personally ran the sales department. It worked—not because he managed through fear, but through clarity.  

    Firestone was the founder of the Firestone Tire and Rubber Company—an outsider who built one of America’s iconic industrial empires by doing the opposite of what everyone else did. This episode isn’t about tires. It’s about how Firestone quietly built one of the great businesses of the 20th century by asking two deceptively simple questions: Is it necessary? Can it be simplified? 

    This episode breaks down the invisible principles behind Firestone’s success: positioning over talent, inputs over outcomes, discipline over drama. If you lead a team or simply want to lead yourself better, this story is a masterclass in building enduring advantages.  

    This episode is for informational purposes only and is based on Men and Rubber: The Story of Business by Harvey Firestone. 

    Check out highlights from these books in our repository, and find key lessons from Firestone here—⁠⁠⁠https://fs.blog/knowledge-project-podcast/outliers-harvey-firestone/

    (03:00) PART 1: The Best Businessman I Ever Knew
    (06:50) The Vanilla Extract Lesson
    (10:23) When Premium Doesn’t Matter

    (12:05) PART 2: Right Beneath the Wheels
    (14:21) The Back of an Envelope
    (16:36) If Two of Us Stay, Neither Makes Money
    (18:39) Betting on what Doesn’t Change
    (20:55) The Accidental Breakfast
    (24:53) The Third Option

    (28:19) PART 3: The Innovators Dilemma: Pneumatic Tires
    (32:24) The Ford Connection: A Partnership of Outsiders
    (35:23) Navigating the Crisis
    (37:17) The Underdog’s Advantage
    (39:24) The Million Dollar Milestone
    (43:10) Weathering the Panic of 1907
    (45:55) The Simplicity Imperative

    (51:25) PART 4: The Ship-by-Truck Revolution
    (54:31) The Boom That Hid Everything
    (56:11) The 25% Solution
    (01:01:42) Cutting to the Bone

    (01:04:25) PART 5: Why He Never Stopped
    (01:06:54) The Human Element
    (01:08:09) The Legacy

    (01:10:05) Reflections, afterthoughts, and lessons

    Upgrade—If you want to hear my thoughts and reflections at the end of all episodes, join our membership: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and get your own private feed.

    Newsletter—The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at ⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter

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  • #230 Bill Belichick: 8x Super Bowl Champion on Winning, Leadership, and Discipline

    AI transcript
    0:00:04 The big thing about preparation and success is the price has to be paid in advance.
    0:00:07 You have to put in the work before you get any results.
    0:00:11 If you can eliminate all those things, then you can actually make progress on being a better
    0:00:16 football player and winning games. Was there ever a time where you kept a player on the roster who
    0:00:21 might not have made it from a talent level, but sheer work ethic, sort of kept them around not
    0:00:25 only because they were improving, but because they made everybody else prepare harder?
    0:00:28 Yeah, absolutely. Let’s start with Tom Brady.
    0:00:37 Welcome to The Knowledge Project. I’m your host, Shane Parrish. In a world where knowledge is power,
    0:00:41 this podcast is your toolkit for mastering the best of what other people have already figured out.
    0:00:49 Today’s guest is Bill Belichick. Coach Belichick is an eight-time Super Bowl champion who’s widely
    0:00:55 considered the greatest football coach of all time. He is the only head coach in NFL history to win
    0:00:59 six Super Bowls, all with the New England Patriots. He’s currently the head coach of the
    0:01:05 University of North Carolina football team, and this conversation needs no introduction. This is
    0:01:09 amazing. I’m so happy to have Coach Belichick on. It’s time to listen and learn.
    0:01:33 When I thought about where to start, I think the place that came to mind was the sign you had in the Patriots facility. And as every employee walked in, they read these four things. Do your job, work hard, be attentive, and put the team first. Right. Why did you want everybody in the organization to read that on the way into work?
    0:01:39 Well, that’s really our game plan every day. Didn’t matter whether it was a day in the offseason,
    0:01:44 a day in training camp, or the day before the AFC championship game, or the day of the AFC championship game.
    0:01:47 Those things never really changed.
    0:01:51 That we all had a job to do, whatever that happened to be, and every job was important.
    0:02:09 Every member of the team was important that they do their job well. And being attentive and working hard is really the formula to getting better. That’s how you improve. You figure out what it is you need to do better, and that’s by being attentive and listening to people who can instruct you or help you get better.
    0:02:20 And then putting the work in to make that positive change. Then always thinking team first. That’s always the most important thing. What do we need to do to win? And what can I do to contribute to the winning cause?
    0:02:30 And so, regardless of what the task was, whether it was a coach, a player, a staff member, really any employee, it kind of fit for all of them.
    0:02:42 So, and again, because we played and practiced in the same facility, as I said, it didn’t matter whether it was the AFC championship game or whether it was a day in March or a day in June.
    0:02:46 It was the same every day. And so, we strove for that consistency.
    0:02:51 What does it mean to work hard? There was a term in your book that stuck out to me called eyewash.
    0:02:57 Working hard, sometimes people can come in and put in their time and check the box.
    0:03:04 You know, a player can come in, put on his gear, go out, run around, break a sweat, take a shower and say, well, I, you know, I practiced today.
    0:03:09 Well, but if you don’t really accomplish anything, then that really is not not working hard.
    0:03:16 It’s actually we refer to it as a day off. No days off actually means, you know, you come to work and you go to work.
    0:03:19 You don’t come to work, check the box, kill the time and then leave.
    0:03:21 You need to be productive while you’re there.
    0:03:33 So, you know, that is really just a way of saying, yes, we’re going to put in the work, but we need to accomplish the things that we set out to accomplish for that for that day and then build on those tomorrow.
    0:03:41 Was there ever a time where you kept a player on the roster who might not have made it from a talent level, but sheer work ethic sort of kept them around?
    0:03:46 Not only because they were improving, but because they made everybody else prepare harder.
    0:03:52 Yeah, absolutely. Let’s start with Tom Brady. Tom Brady was a fourth string quarterback his rookie year.
    0:03:59 He had three players ahead of him and and, you know, he just he just worked his way up.
    0:04:04 No team keeps four quarterbacks at any level, high school, college, the NFL.
    0:04:22 It’s it’s really almost unheard of. And he he he would be exhibit a Steve Neal, you know, a guy who never played high school football, never played college football, was a was a wrestler in college and then became a, you know, an offensive guard, started for us for seven years.
    0:04:34 Julian Edelman, who played quarterback in college and and then became a receiver and upon returner to positions that he never played in college in the NFL and became very good at him.
    0:04:46 So, yeah, absolutely. That work ethic and that day to day improvement, when you just stack those days together on top of each other for a sustained period of time on, you know, it levels out the talent.
    0:04:56 Sure, talent’s important, but guys with a great work ethic and and who really are committed to improving can catch a lot of players with more talent who don’t work as hard.
    0:05:05 Is there an example of a player who just had outrageous talent, but didn’t work hard at all that sort of ended their career a lot earlier or they never made it?
    0:05:09 You know, they got to the the big league and then they they sort of just faded away.
    0:05:23 Yeah, sure. I mean, there are lots of them. Unfortunately, you know, I referred to one of them in the book that, you know, talked about coming in and being a running back and, you know, being a combination of, you know, two great running backs that were in the Hall of Fame.
    0:05:38 I think he had barely 100 yards in his entire career. So it’s, you know, talent’s one thing, but the application of turning that talent into being a productive football player and a great teammate is is it’s hard to do it.
    0:05:58 It’s not that easy and talent get you through high school. It might get you through college, but once you get to the NFL level, that talent, that field levels out and there are only a few players that have such elite talent that they they don’t have to work very hard and can stay better than a lot of their competitors.
    0:06:14 For the other 95 percent, if they don’t stay on it, they’re either going to get replaced or in a lot of cases, players that don’t trade hard will get injured and their careers will get cut short that way because they don’t, you know, commit to a good training regimen.
    0:06:29 Are competitive people competitive everywhere? I think of like you, Michael Jordan, Tom Brady, and you’re always competitive in every everything you’re doing. And I’m wondering if that’s a trait of hyper competitive people or just the ones that reach the pinnacle of success.
    0:06:56 No, I think it’s, I think it transcends everything. It’s unbelievable how competitive guys are, uh, literally over nothing. I mean, it could be for a t-shirt. Um, you know, uh, not having to run a couple sprints or, uh, an hour later on curfew, uh, they’ll compete in it. And honestly, it isn’t even necessarily for the prize at the end.
    0:07:26 It’s just to be able to say, you know, I won, I competed and, you know, I, I beat you today. Or, um, if they don’t win just the, the love of the competition, the, the love of the prize, uh, and, and fighting for that, the, the pride to say, Hey, you know, um, we would have a lot of kind of team competitive events. Like, um, for example, a trivia, you know, or know your teammate, um, and, you know, ask questions about different teammates of, um, you know, maybe what position they played in high school, or maybe,
    0:07:56 another sport they play, or, you know, some other random fact about teammates and, and play offense against defense or the wide receivers against the DBs or the O-line against the D-line and the rookies against the veterans and, you know, create different competitions and, uh, whether it was free throw shooting or cornhole or trivia, uh, or, you know, all different things like that. Um, guys that like to compete, love to compete. And, and, um, it was a lot of fun actually to, to, to move some
    0:08:26 of the targets around for the competition. Um, you know, some guys are good at free throws. Some guys are good at trivia. Some guys are good, uh, you know, uh, closest to the hole golf shots, you know, whatever it is. Um, but it’s just fun to see them compete. One of the best things we did, Shane, was we would have usually one of our rookie offensive and defensive linemen, uh, would compete against each other and to catch a punt. Right. And so you put a, a, you know, an offensive tackle and a defensive tackle back there. And, and, uh, you know, you go one at a time. And the punter
    0:08:56 would, would, would punt and, you know, we’d make sure that it was at least four seconds hang time. So, you know, the ball was up in the air and then, um, whichever, you know, whichever guy caught it first, um, then that group would win. And the other group would have to do extra sprints or, uh, the group that one would get out of bed check or, you know, whatever it was, but it was a good way of team building because all the players were rooting for their, their guy who had never caught a punt in his life probably. Right. You know, watching Vince Wilfork and Matt
    0:09:01 like back there catching punts uh you know trying to track the ball and catch it and and of course i
    0:09:07 made him punt you know so the returner had the sun in his eyes uh you know had to deal with that
    0:09:13 uh but you know to watch those guys do something they hadn’t done before for some type of a reward
    0:09:19 uh was uh you know it was a great team building exercise and and um they but they they do they
    0:09:26 love to compete competitors are the guys that really love to compete um you know are honestly
    0:09:32 the guys that get the most out of their talent you know because they just are are determined to work
    0:09:37 hard prepare and and go right to the very end they might not be as talented as somebody else
    0:09:44 but they they play and compete you know to the max you mentioned the last dance in your book what was
    0:09:49 your reaction to watching that i mean i thought it was awesome and you know jordan’s one of the
    0:09:57 greatest competitors in any sport ever and um you know just just you know his competitive spirit
    0:10:03 is you know up there with the guys that he played with like lawrence taylor at north carolina those
    0:10:08 guys they still compete all the time on the golf course so um i thought it was you know a great
    0:10:14 insight into it you know brady’s a tremendous competitor julian edelman brewski every time a
    0:10:19 brewski came back from stroke and and continue to play you know some of those guys rodney harris
    0:10:24 it’s just it’s it’s it’s at an elite level which it should be in the national football league but it’s
    0:10:29 just at an elite level i think one thing that surprised a lot of people when i talked to friends
    0:10:36 who maybe casually follow the sports um it was how much you know jordan’s teammates had maybe a not love
    0:10:43 relationship with him always and do you think that’s true you know i wasn’t around him enough to you
    0:10:51 know the comment about that but um i i think if you don’t really like to compete that a top competitor
    0:10:58 will kind of wear you down and it kind of um i don’t want to say resist to it but you know just
    0:11:04 to resist and compete at that level um so i i have seen that from time to time but the guys that really
    0:11:10 love to compete love to compete and they just join in there and compete with them one of the things you
    0:11:15 you said in the book is you you cannot win until you keep from losing which reminds me of inversion
    0:11:22 from charlie munger what what does that mean in a football context oh boy uh where we start
    0:11:30 um anything um anything that anything that prevents you from achieving your best um that you control
    0:11:36 so it’s not the opponent it’s it’s something that happens internally examples would be um you know
    0:11:46 guys getting uh suspended for uh performance enhancing drugs or guys that uh uh wouldn’t hydrate
    0:11:53 and would pull muscle you know pull hamstring pull a grind pull calf uh because they weren’t fully
    0:12:01 hydrated those aren’t that’s not buffalo that’s not the jets that that’s us that’s us and in the game
    0:12:05 um i’d say two of the biggest examples well there’s a lot of them but let’s start with penalties
    0:12:12 um pre-snap penalties so penalties that happened before the ball snapped those are our fault you can’t
    0:12:18 blame them on the other team false start illegal motion too many men on the field delay a game
    0:12:24 like all that that’s that’s our inefficiency that’s not our opponents and really for the most part post
    0:12:29 whistle penalties plays that happen after the whistle of blow has blown hitting the guy out of bounds
    0:12:36 taunting illegal celebration you know stuff like that where uh you just get carried away emotionally
    0:12:41 in the moment and and cost your team you know personal fouls rough in the pass or rough in the
    0:12:47 punter stuff like that that that really happens after the play is over those are examples of of beating
    0:12:52 yourself you know you can’t win until you keep from losing those plays aren’t because of what the
    0:12:57 opponent did those plays are because of either our lack of concentration communication discipline
    0:13:01 whatever happened to be and i’m not just putting it on the players i’ll put it on the coaches too
    0:13:07 you know that’s our responsibility um to eliminate those um and other things turnovers for example when
    0:13:12 when the offense turns the ball over uh and the defense doesn’t make a good play it’s just the
    0:13:19 offense fumbling a snap fumbling a hand off the ball goes off of receiver’s hands uh pops up in the air
    0:13:24 and the defense intercepts it uh plays like that that don’t have anything to do really with good defense
    0:13:30 um the offense just gives the ball away you know snap the ball over the guy’s head the quarterback’s head
    0:13:36 snap it over the punter’s head drop the snap um stuff like that just plays that are poorly executed
    0:13:44 by us so as you can see it’s a long list shane uh some of them are off the field and some of them you
    0:13:48 know some of them are on the field you know in college football would be you know being academically
    0:13:53 ineligible i mean that’s you know that’s not your opponent’s fault that’s you know that’s that’s a
    0:13:59 lack of commitment and uh you know doing the required academic work to be eligible to play so
    0:14:02 those would all be examples of you can’t win until you keep from roots and if you can eliminate all
    0:14:07 those things then you can actually make progress on being a better football player and and winning games
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    0:15:30 shopify.com slash knowledge project there used to be days i’d open my inbox and feel buried like
    0:15:36 i was digging through noise just to find the signal important messages got lost my focus slipped and i
    0:15:41 started feeling like i was managing email more than running my business as someone who values productivity
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    0:16:45 you’re supporting our show too notion.com slash knowledge project i remember reading something a while ago but the
    0:16:52 difference between um being beaten and losing and it sounds like what you’re saying there is kind of
    0:16:57 hinting at that yeah absolutely uh you know we’ve always said more games are lost than one in the
    0:17:04 national football league and when i say lost i’m saying those type of things missed opportunities
    0:17:13 missed assignments um poor clock management just just fumbling the situation more than the other team
    0:17:19 um you know really really playing well to win a lot of times if you just
    0:17:24 kind of get out of the way and let the other team make a mistake they’ll make one and and you can
    0:17:29 capitalize on and take advantage now not all the time again you know as you go deeper into the season and
    0:17:34 play play play better teams and playoffs and things like that that happens less frequently but
    0:17:39 um in a lot of close games when you go back and really look at the way the game the outcome of the
    0:17:45 game was the team that lost really probably should have won or or had had many good chances to win
    0:17:52 and and just kind of messed it up and uh more than like i said the winning team going out there
    0:17:59 making all these spectacular plays so again the big thing is um you know number one keep from losing
    0:18:05 and number two make the plays you’re supposed to make i mean sure there’s some great plays out there but
    0:18:11 before we get to the great plays let’s just make the the plays that you know you’re supposed to make
    0:18:16 just the the regular ones the normal ones and that’s execution concentration uh and discipline to
    0:18:22 to do it all the time you tell your players to focus on the the drawer to help them focus on what
    0:18:30 matters what is the drawer and how does it help drawers a um was a saying that that we use to
    0:18:36 uh especially at the end of the year like as you get into the holidays thanksgiving christmas new
    0:18:41 years and then the playoffs um you know the end of the season’s in sight and wherever you are you know
    0:18:47 you’ve put in you know all the work back into the spring training camp you know 10 12 14 regular
    0:18:53 season games whatever it is and now you’re really coming you know coming down the home stretch and and
    0:19:00 the drawer was just a way of saying um unless it’s a a family or personal thing that’s really important
    0:19:06 um put it in a drawer dealing with it after the season you know you do you need to go to sign these
    0:19:14 cards at the mall do you need to um you know go look for a new electronic whatever it is
    0:19:20 can you put those things aside and just finish the season spend that time on preparation for our
    0:19:26 opponents spend that time on um you know rest recovery training so that you’re your absolute
    0:19:32 best when we really need you here in these last few stretch weeks and and as you know you know shane
    0:19:37 when you get to a certain point every it’s a one game season you know if you lose you’re done and if
    0:19:43 you win you get to play another week so when you get into that scenario put it off until next week and
    0:19:48 if you’re in it next week put it off until the week after that um but this is what we’ve worked all year
    0:19:54 for put those things in the drawer and then and then open the drawer when the season’s over now we would
    0:19:57 joke about it and you know guys would say hey coach you know my drawer is getting pretty full here
    0:20:03 um so you know what maybe you need a bigger drawer or maybe you need two drawers uh but the idea was to
    0:20:10 put those things um on the back burner and focus on on the very special opportunity that we had in front
    0:20:17 of us which was playoffs or championships one thing that seems to have evolved since you started coaching
    0:20:23 is that time becomes more fragmented now players have cell phones they have more distractions they’re you
    0:20:28 know i don’t have an hour to sit there and do a meeting i have all these competing things for my
    0:20:34 attention how how have cell phones changed the locker room culture and made coaching easier or harder
    0:20:40 or technology in that way well first of all we don’t have cell phones and apple watches and things like
    0:20:44 that in our meetings so that they’re they’re not part of the meetings but when the meetings are over
    0:20:48 you know a lot of times the guys race to see what you know messages and texts and so forth are there
    0:20:54 um you know and my thing on that has always been again other than you know family and very personal
    0:21:00 situations um you know the guys that are most important to to each of us are the guys in that
    0:21:06 locker room you know the guys that you um you know win and lose with and live and die with each day
    0:21:11 and that you count on them and they count on you so uh it was really very important for us to
    0:21:18 to focus on those relationships and i i tried to downplay the you know how many likes or thumbs up
    0:21:24 or whatever you get on different social platforms i don’t even know what those are um but what’s more
    0:21:29 important is what the guy next to you thinks about you and the respect that that you guys have for each
    0:21:34 other and the trust that you have in each other and and that’s something that you know in a you know
    0:21:40 on a football team you you just you earn every day um every day you come to work uh as a coach
    0:21:45 you know you earn the trust and respect of your players and and your other coaches by being prepared
    0:21:51 by showing that you’re there to help the team and you can help the team win and again it’s the same
    0:21:56 thing for every player and and when you earn that every day you build that trust and you build a
    0:22:01 cohesive team and when you don’t you know those are the players that again that other players don’t
    0:22:05 don’t trust as much is he going to run the right route is he going to be at the right depth is he
    0:22:10 going to block the right guy is he going to be in the right gap and and that causes uh when you don’t
    0:22:14 know what your teammate’s going to do that causes a lot of hesitation on your part and you’re kind of
    0:22:18 waiting to see what he’s going to do instead of knowing what he’s going to do and then you can
    0:22:24 aggressively do your job because you’re confident of the people beside you and um i learned a lot about
    0:22:30 that with the um especially with the navy seals those elite teams i mean uh blue angels to be
    0:22:35 another example you know those guys fly 18 inches apart and you know the amount of trust and
    0:22:41 preparation and teamwork that’s involved in something like that going you know 600 miles an hour or seven
    0:22:47 whatever it is um is is pretty amazing but you know the seals it’s the same thing like everybody’s got a
    0:22:54 job to do and and you learn your teammates so well that you can even in a dark room uh you know pick out
    0:23:00 his you know his silhouette or or something about him that identifies him and and you know each of
    0:23:05 you count on each other to do their jobs and accomplish the missions and um you know that’s
    0:23:10 obviously that’s at the highest level football we’re not talking about life and death here but
    0:23:15 we are talking about the championship level of performance of having that same type of trust and
    0:23:22 and um and belief and and confidence in your teammates so that you’re never questioning what
    0:23:27 they do and you can be more aggressive and in doing your job and there’s never that look over
    0:23:32 your shoulder of is he where he’s supposed to be you know if you know he is then then you can perform
    0:23:38 better so um those are kind of the you know the themes that we we try to instill there i remember
    0:23:43 talking to a navy seal once and he said you know when things get hard you’re doing it for the person next
    0:23:48 to you when you want to quit or when you want to give up or how much of that is in football too i think
    0:23:53 there’s definitely a carryover on that you’re you know you’re you’re playing for the team but you’re
    0:23:58 playing for the guy beside you too you know and and uh especially in a sport like football or in in a
    0:24:04 real battle situation like like the seals are involved in um you know you’re talking about potentially
    0:24:11 getting hurt or you know or or worse in a seal situation where you know that guy beside you like
    0:24:17 you have to count on him to to do his job to and you do yours for the same reason to protect each other
    0:24:23 one of your most famous press conferences you said snap face or something and i literally spit out my
    0:24:28 water when i heard you say that i was listening to the about social media you’re like snap face or whatever
    0:24:36 the hell it is like yeah well i’ve battled those social media platforms and uh and and now i’m
    0:24:43 actually on one so um you know college football is uh has kind of changed that a little bit i mean i’m not
    0:24:49 too active on it but i am on it but um but again look i don’t really have anything per se against social
    0:24:54 media it’s just you know prioritizing it and and as i said i think that in a football locker room
    0:25:00 the relationships between the players the team and the coaches are are paramount uh more so than
    0:25:06 people you’ve never met or seen or or heard of before what their opinions are and so i always
    0:25:14 you know try to encourage our players to um yeah not be too consumed with that but you know we’ll worry
    0:25:19 about the guy next to you that’s the one that matters the most how is technology changing the way
    0:25:24 that players prepare in the sense of you know the story that comes to mind is certain jaden daniels
    0:25:30 last year using vr to get more reps how walk me through how technology is changing and where it’s
    0:25:36 really impacting uh people who are willing to put in the work yeah that system that jaden daniels uh was
    0:25:42 referring to is one that he used at lsu and and then uh also used that with the commanders last year
    0:25:47 uh it’s actually one that we have as well it’s it’s uh one that’s very hard to get it’s only
    0:25:53 available very selectively and and so i’m pretty familiar with it um and it’s an incredible system
    0:25:59 it enables you to see the game you know in a pair of goggles um in real life in real space and it
    0:26:04 actually feels like you’re getting hit it feels like um you’re you’re right in the middle of the game but
    0:26:10 you’re actually able to see things um what you do and then you can program in what your opponents do
    0:26:15 uh to create a a very realistic picture and then you’re also able to adjust the speed so
    0:26:23 you could actually play the game at let’s call it 105 or 110 percent of the actual speed um so that
    0:26:29 theoretically you’re you’re having to react even quicker than you would in in a real game situation so
    0:26:37 um i can see you know how that could really help especially uh for skill positions uh like quarterback or
    0:26:46 um you know positions like like that where you can you you you have to see a lot of things uh very
    0:26:51 quickly and and identify quickly what you know what decision you’re going to make that’s true of every
    0:26:58 position the quarterback especially when you talk about distributing the ball um and and also for a
    0:27:03 player who’s um who’s injured um so let’s just say that you had a leg injury and you weren’t able to
    0:27:10 to practice uh or run full speed for a couple of days um you could actually see the game through this
    0:27:18 product and get your recognition your reads without actually having to run and and you know be involved
    0:27:24 in a in a situation uh that physically you’re just not you know what not ready for um but i’d say a lot
    0:27:29 of the other technology is just you know things that maybe make it go a little bit faster ways of grouping
    0:27:35 grouping plays together grouping situations together that you know allow you to to research and and uh
    0:27:41 analyze those things a little bit quicker but that’s probably about across the board about the same for
    0:27:47 everybody they all we all have the same opportunity on that i mean ultimately a lot of those situations
    0:27:53 come down to preparation but also maybe a gut feel of the way the game is going you said in your book
    0:28:00 the price of success is paid in preparation but you also said it was a way of working what did you mean
    0:28:07 by that well i think the big thing about preparation success is is the price has to be paid in advance
    0:28:14 you have to put in the work before you get any results so there’s no way to to honestly know how
    0:28:21 good your preparation is or isn’t um that’s why i always try to emphasize keep preparing keep working
    0:28:26 um you don’t know what the other guy’s doing he might be you know working just as hard as you are
    0:28:31 and that preparation you know it can’t be after the fact of like oh i wish i would have studied more
    0:28:38 it’s too late at that point you have to do it on the front end so um getting in condition um you know
    0:28:44 studying preparing on your film and your opponents and all that like those things are all have to be
    0:28:49 done on the front end and you know a lot of times uh there’s i would say a little bit of a tendency to
    0:28:54 just sort of let up on the preparation well i’ve watched some film well i’ve done some extra sprints
    0:29:01 well i’ve done this i’ve done that well is that is that enough you know is it really enough and and
    0:29:06 if you do more will it make a difference um not to the point of diminishing returns but to the
    0:29:14 point of you know comprehensive preparation so um that’s really what we try to try to um
    0:29:20 emphasize on that the way that i think about that is sort of that you know the pain of losing is sharp
    0:29:26 but it’s over fairly quickly but the pain of regret not putting in the work not doing the things you
    0:29:32 didn’t leave it all in the field that lasts forever exactly that’s exactly it the pain of regret
    0:29:39 is much more than than the pain of preparation absolutely i think you had a 24-hour rule sort
    0:29:44 of after winner losses you have 24 hours to think about it and then you move on is that that’s right
    0:29:50 yeah you play the game you go back you analyze it you what do we do well what do we do poorly what
    0:29:53 do we need to do better what adjustments should we have made what coaching errors did we make
    0:30:00 and so forth and and then you you factor all that into you know how does that affect this next week
    0:30:04 sometimes there’s a lot of carryover sometimes the play team you play the following week is completely
    0:30:10 different and some of those lessons may not really become applicable for a week or two weeks or three
    0:30:17 weeks until you see a you know a similar type of opponent um say like a scrambling quarterback you know
    0:30:21 maybe you play two or three weeks where those quarterbacks aren’t too mobile and when you get up
    0:30:27 against another scrambling quarterback you go back and look at a how you know how how do we need to
    0:30:32 to handle this better uh against this type of an opponent so um but yeah you look at all those things
    0:30:40 after 24 hours win or lose or draw uh you you take your lessons and and you decide how you’re going to
    0:30:45 incorporate any of those things into this week’s preparation and practice uh what we’re going to do
    0:30:51 differently or maybe do more of or do less of whatever it is um and then you’re done with that
    0:30:58 and you move on to your opponent and and spend the next uh five days six days whatever it is of just
    0:31:03 you know digging in on that opponent and and what they do talk to me about the relationship between
    0:31:10 the best talent in the world and you know you’re playing in the nfl you’re coaching in the nfl and
    0:31:18 confidence well again it’s all relative you know shane i mean as good as um as good as as the players
    0:31:24 are in the nfl um the guys on the other side of the ball are pretty good too and uh you know i’d say
    0:31:32 every team generally speaking every team has about you know five or six players they’re elite have elite
    0:31:38 payments elite contracts and then you might have some younger players in their first through fourth
    0:31:44 year you know two or three four whatever those that are elite players they just haven’t hit those top
    0:31:49 contracts yet um but they don’t necessarily match up in the same position you might have a tackle i might
    0:31:56 have a guard you might have a linebacker i might have a corner and so forth um so um the way those elite
    0:32:05 players match up is is very um specific from game to game and how you want to match them your your matches
    0:32:10 against theirs and how you want to deal with that is you know that’s a big part of it i think the
    0:32:18 confidence thing is really um interesting i think what really separates the great players um is their
    0:32:23 ability to do it even when the bullseye’s on their back every week um like it was with tom brady like it
    0:32:29 was with lawrence taylor like it is with patrick mahomes um like it is with you know players like
    0:32:35 that lamar jackson and so forth every week the the teams are geared towards stopping those players
    0:32:39 and game planning against them or putting their best guy on them or however you’re going to handle them
    0:32:46 and for those players to continue to be productive um in spite of the game plan attention they get
    0:32:53 is is what truly makes those players you know great and elite and i i think that um you know when
    0:32:59 we had kobe bryant come in and talk to our team i think it was around eight 2018 19 somewhere in there
    0:33:09 and you know kobe talked a lot about evolving you know and he said um you know look at when i was 22 23
    0:33:15 you know i could just get the ball and drive by anybody and and score and he said i can’t do that
    0:33:22 anymore i still score but i found different ways to score moving without the ball jump shots and you know
    0:33:29 being better in pick situations and all those kind of things um that you know he said i found i found
    0:33:37 ways to evolve my game um because i just couldn’t do the things i used to be able to do as well um but
    0:33:42 there are other things i found that i can actually do better and i thought that was a great message for
    0:33:49 all of us to hear that as we um you know as we go through our careers do the things that are working
    0:33:54 do the things that you can do well but also evolve continue to learn continue to you know find ways
    0:34:02 to to be productive that are maybe a little out of your comfort zone or um are not um you know habitual
    0:34:09 for you now but if you can become good at them um they can be great you know great tools for you
    0:34:15 are there any other people that you brought to speak from sort of different sports that sort of had
    0:34:21 uh a different message that resonated with you or the team and just stands out in your mind oh yeah we
    0:34:26 had a lot of them yeah we had a lot of them and and it was great because you know just the guys you
    0:34:30 know they hear a lot of football stories but it’s good to hear all the ones uh one of the ones i thought
    0:34:37 was particularly entertaining a couple of them one was uh paul assiante they won like 14 national
    0:34:45 championships in a row they won like 160 some games in a row matches in a row i mean and at the
    0:34:51 patriots we were favored in almost every game you know not every game but most every game for quite a
    0:34:57 while and so you know i brought coach assiante and i said you know here’s guys won like 13 straight
    0:35:03 national championships they won 160 some matches in a row i mean talk about being favored now like
    0:35:09 they’re favored and and and like let’s listen to what that’s really like and he was great he talked
    0:35:14 about it it doesn’t matter whether you are or aren’t or how many you have or haven’t won every day is an
    0:35:19 opportunity you make the most out of each day and you just get better each day and you don’t worry
    0:35:24 about what you’ve done in the past you just you look at today’s opportunity and make the most out of it
    0:35:29 it was great so one of our code one of our players sticks his hand up and said hey coach i have a
    0:35:37 question what’s squash i thought it was a vegetable hey jimmy johnson you know we were going into the
    0:35:43 playoffs and jimmy came up and he was doing a um uh you know a story on somebody and i said hey would
    0:35:48 you mind you know talking to teams so sure so he said yeah let me tell you a little playoff story here
    0:35:53 you know when i was in dallas we were getting ready for the playoffs and we were in a special teams
    0:35:58 meeting i’m standing in the back and i see i see one of our one of our players back there kind of
    0:36:03 dozing off and and not paying attention and he said he wasn’t a it wasn’t a starter but he played in
    0:36:09 special teams and he said it just really annoyed me and so i went over i flipped on the lights turn the
    0:36:14 lights on at me and i went over to him i said that’s it you fall asleep in this meeting uh we don’t want
    0:36:20 you this is your primary job you can take your playbook and and go see the job manager you’re done
    0:36:25 you’re cut and everybody like whoa you know that woke everybody up and you know it was right before
    0:36:32 the playoffs so you know any questions um yeah coach um what would you have done if that had been
    0:36:39 troy aikman jimmy said well i wouldn’t have turned on the lights i probably would have gone over to him
    0:36:48 and nudged and said like hey troy pay attention and the message was if you have a lot of pelts on the
    0:36:55 wall you you might have a little more slack if you don’t have a lot of pelts on the wall you don’t have
    0:37:02 any room you don’t have any room you can’t live on what you’ve done because you haven’t done enough
    0:37:08 you better know where you are and until if you’re troy aikman and tom brady you you go but he goes
    0:37:14 those guys would never do that anyway but you that you might be able to survive that but if you if you
    0:37:20 don’t have that kind of resume you haven’t had that kind of production for this team so you nobody wants
    0:37:25 that you’re replaceable they’ll find somebody else who will stay awake in the meetings and who will be
    0:37:31 more attentive and uh it’s pretty funny i just nudge them and say hey pay attention
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    0:40:23 did you treat everybody the same i remember one story and maybe it’s just uh sort of the press
    0:40:28 uh doing the press thing but where you sent uh jarell revis home from practice because he was like two
    0:40:34 minutes late or something oh we had a few of those yeah we had a few of those and honestly those are
    0:40:40 tough ones you know shane because when you send a player home it it hurts the team it it doesn’t just
    0:40:45 hurt the player it hurts the team because you know you need the timing and and the communication and the
    0:40:51 teamwork out there but i try to treat them all the same but i i do think jimmy johnson i believe that and
    0:40:58 coach parcells uh you know same thing yeah that did the same thing there were um certain players
    0:41:05 got a little more grace than others based on um you know what they had done for us and and they
    0:41:11 i would say kind of earned that so um i tried not to do that but there were times when you know when i
    0:41:17 did i but i tried to treat everybody the same you know they’re not all the same but you certainly want
    0:41:23 everybody to feel that you know we’re all team members and it’s not um you know we don’t have a
    0:41:28 an elite society here we have different ranks and certain players can do some things and other players
    0:41:35 couldn’t so i tried to make it as consistent as possible but at the same time uh i think you have to be
    0:41:42 flexible in in a professional football environment for some latitude and and maybe for some it’s called
    0:41:47 exceptions to your rules you sent one player home from the super bowl for having somebody in his
    0:41:54 hotel room was that a hard decision or was that a how did you make that was that team first and you
    0:41:59 violated the rules you’re you’re out or you know i made it very clear before we went down there that
    0:42:05 you know it was a business trip and yeah we had a great year and and we were all celebrating the the
    0:42:12 super bowl and and uh and what we had accomplished to get there um but here are the rules and and
    0:42:17 you don’t have to break the rules go to the other person’s room if you want to be with them but our
    0:42:24 floors are secure and and at the super bowl in particular there’s a good reason for that um you
    0:42:29 know with super bowl tickets and and guys with valuables and stuff like that if it’s not one of our
    0:42:36 players on the floor i don’t know whether that person is a friend of our players or an intruder
    0:42:42 there’s really no way to know and no matter you know i mean unless i knew the person for some reason
    0:42:47 but you know what i mean you just don’t know who that person is so our policy was players only on the
    0:42:54 the floor period that’s it and so um you know it was unfortunate because i wasn’t trying to
    0:43:00 say hey you can’t have guests or you can’t you know be with your friends or your your companions
    0:43:06 or anything that wasn’t it it’s just don’t do it on that floor do it somewhere else i don’t care
    0:43:13 and and again i was trying to protect the players by not having people on our floor that we didn’t know
    0:43:19 that could roam in and out of rooms or could you know and and if you don’t if you don’t remove
    0:43:23 those people then you end up with you know potentially somebody leaves their room then
    0:43:28 that person walks in then you have a big mess on your hands so that was our policy not just in that
    0:43:34 game but everywhere but unfortunately uh because that game was you know we were there for five days
    0:43:41 um i just felt like it was a blatant violation of our rule i want to come back to confidence for a
    0:43:45 a sec one of the follow-ups i meant to ask was there ever a moment where you had your confidence
    0:43:54 shaken and how did you handle that oh plenty of times um i i mean honestly shane there were times when
    0:43:59 you know i wasn’t sure if we were going to win another game the entire year
    0:44:05 you know and you know we ended up winning a lot of them you know but sometimes you just see
    0:44:13 um problems and and maybe you want to fix them but you just don’t have the resources to fix them where
    0:44:18 you’ve tried a couple different things and it still isn’t really uh the way you want it and you can see
    0:44:24 in the future some real problems coming up with your opponents and some match-ups and whatever the case
    0:44:32 might be and and you’re like i mean i don’t know like i mean i’m trying to fix this but i just don’t
    0:44:37 feel very confident that that we actually are going to be able to handle it the way we need to and uh
    0:44:46 and ultimately you know in most cases um it wasn’t maybe as bad as what i thought it might be i was
    0:44:52 expecting the worst and and that usually didn’t happen so that’s a good thing but um yeah i don’t know
    0:44:57 know if that’s a lack of confidence or or i don’t know what the exact word is but yeah you definitely
    0:45:04 have those apprehensions and certainly opening day is a is a is a difficult day because you don’t know
    0:45:10 very much about your team you don’t very know very much about your opponent’s team um and and unless you
    0:45:17 have a really veteran team you don’t know exactly how the team is going to react in certain situations
    0:45:23 particularly tough and critical competitive situations um so you know even though you have
    0:45:29 a good team how are they going to react when you know you’re really in a in a really a tight ball game
    0:45:33 and that’s that’s something that you don’t know until you’ve been in a few
    0:45:37 unless you’ve been in a few with those guys and it’s the same guys
    0:45:44 when you first started in the nfl you worked for nothing you were you worked part-time for nothing
    0:45:49 and then you switched to full-time for nothing yeah and one of the things that you said was i did
    0:45:56 anything and everything and i think of this as like a taste for salt water you do the hard things but you
    0:46:01 were snapping the football but you were like oh the benefit was i got to listen to coach talk to the qb
    0:46:06 and walk me through like how that’s changed today and what people miss when they hyper specialize
    0:46:12 well i think one thing that that i see with you know some of our younger staff members coaches and
    0:46:18 things like that is they’re they’re very concerned about their title you know can i be the can i get
    0:46:24 this title can i get that title and the coaches of you know can i be the run game coordinator can i be the blitz
    0:46:31 coordinator can i be the zone coverage coordinator can i be the i mean it’s like what are those titles
    0:46:37 for like they don’t impress me i know what your job is i mean do you need that title to you know
    0:46:42 validate what you’re doing or is it for somebody else and i’m not really interested in helping
    0:46:47 somebody else i mean we we all know what we do here i mean honestly i was a general manager
    0:46:55 um for almost 30 years of my nfl career and i never had a general manager title that was never important
    0:47:01 to me um i didn’t care about what the title is you just you do the job that you have to do so
    0:47:11 i see that but for me when i look back at it retrospectively um shane the big thing was i was
    0:47:18 so low on the totem pole that i did all the jobs at the very bottom of the organization i shot film i
    0:47:27 lined the fields i moved equipment out there i ran off xerox copies i you know made notebooks i sharpened
    0:47:36 pencil i did all those things and as you move up in the organization it really helped me because i
    0:47:42 understood how everything functioned you know at the you know at the at the level of you know making
    0:47:48 things work you know deliveries and you know mail and stuff like that i mean all those things that
    0:47:54 needed to happen um i understood kind of the process of it how it worked and what was hard about those
    0:47:59 jobs and what wasn’t hard about those jobs and and as i you know gained more responsibility in the
    0:48:04 organization i was always able to show appreciation for the people that were doing those like hey i
    0:48:08 know this is really hard or hey i know this is a tough week i i could sense what you’re going through
    0:48:15 and i think that built some you know camaraderie and trust there but also it helped me understand how
    0:48:20 everything worked and there were multiple times when people come to me and say oh coach we can’t do this
    0:48:23 you know we can’t do this we can’t do that and i said wait a minute i’ve done that job before
    0:48:30 we can do that here’s how you do it here’s this is how you make this work and and so i i felt very
    0:48:36 confident about all the aspects of the organization how they fit together and you know scouting and
    0:48:41 coaching and like i said equipment and video and security and travel and all those things because i was
    0:48:48 a part of those um in one form or another at different points in my career so i i think you
    0:48:54 know for a lot of people you know when i talk about we need to start at the bottom you really need to
    0:48:59 understand how the organization works there’s a lot i want to skip those steps there’s i want you know i
    0:49:04 just want to jump up and and coach the line and linebackers or the tight ends or whatever it is
    0:49:12 and i’m like that’s okay but it would really help you to understand what happens in the entire
    0:49:17 organization and if you want to really move up and become a coordinator and a head coach those will
    0:49:24 be very valuable for you because you’ll understand you know the the different uh intersections of various
    0:49:31 departments and how the organization works and and where the conflicts are you know and sometimes there you
    0:49:37 just you know kind of two people doing the same thing or nobody doing one thing and you you miss
    0:49:43 that intersection somehow and and that’s just part of it but you know how do you avoid those and how you
    0:49:50 make that more efficient so i really try to encourage our our the younger people you know to do those jobs
    0:49:56 and embrace them don’t how quickly can i get done with this so i can go do something else no embrace the job and
    0:50:02 embrace the process and and you know understand it because it’s going to help you in the long run
    0:50:07 and the other thing is you know as i mentioned a couple times in the book with um you know josh
    0:50:14 mcdaniels and nick casario and brian dable um if somebody has one of those jobs and they’re really good at it
    0:50:19 and they say well i want to move you you know i want to move to more responsibility and i said well i want
    0:50:24 you to move to more responsibility too but first you got to train somebody to do your job because what
    0:50:28 what you’re doing is really valuable and that’s when brian dable hired josh mcdaniels to replace him
    0:50:36 that’s when josh mcdaniels hired nick casario to place him and so uh but it forced those guys to make
    0:50:42 sure that the person that was replacing them was not only good but they trained them to do the things
    0:50:48 the way they needed to be done and and that really heightened our efficiency but also enabled them to move up
    0:50:55 to uh responsibility move up in responsibility and so um that really worked out well i was you know
    0:51:02 i thought that that was for me that was a good way to handle it because those guys were very invested in
    0:51:06 making sure their replacement did a good job because they knew they were going back to do that job
    0:51:12 if that person if their replacement failed a lot of people when you ask them to do sort of the
    0:51:22 unglorious task they just look at you and say that’s not my job yeah yeah it’s not my job or i’ll get to
    0:51:29 it you know tomorrow i’ll get to it next week or whatever and those are you know i i mean i don’t
    0:51:35 like to have those type of people you know around and sometimes it’s it’s inevitable you have to put
    0:51:40 something off maybe i get that but um the quicker you get it done the quicker you can move on to
    0:51:44 something else and be more productive and you know the more you procrastinate it then
    0:51:52 you know it it just slows everything down so um there’s got to be a priority system i mean i’m fully
    0:51:57 aware of that but um you know but people that want to put stuff off and and kind of hope that it won’t
    0:52:03 need to get done um they didn’t do very well in our organization one thing you mentioned that stands out
    0:52:08 to me i think of this like stepping stones where people have a job but they see it as
    0:52:13 a stepping stone to the next job right so they’re never fully present in the job that they’re doing
    0:52:18 because they’re always looking ahead and those people don’t actually tend to do very well at the
    0:52:23 next level absolutely and and like i said then they miss some of the things that they really need
    0:52:28 to understand at the level that they’re at and again that’s just part of do your job you know
    0:52:33 that’s just part of it is is everybody has an important job to do and if you’re trying to do
    0:52:39 somebody else’s then you’re probably not doing yours well enough and um you know be patient and
    0:52:45 you know your your opportunities will come um as long as you know you show that you can handle
    0:52:50 the responsibilities that you currently have but you’re right a lot of times there’s a big rush to move
    0:52:59 ahead and and that um a lot of times also brings sloppy work incomplete work um and honestly just a
    0:53:05 a feeling that i don’t not really confident promoting that person because you know they’re more interested
    0:53:10 in what they are going to be doing than what we need to do right now how would you define discipline
    0:53:16 discipline is is is doing the right thing over and over again doing it every time
    0:53:23 it’s just continuing to do it every time in the national football league the players are very skilled and
    0:53:28 talented and and i would say you know all of them can do something um they can all go out there
    0:53:36 and produce you know plays at a very high level um the discipline is what is what really separates
    0:53:43 the players is their their consistency and their discipline to do it over and over again um so you
    0:53:50 can count and depend on um you know at a very high and high rate are there any stories in your mind that
    0:53:56 stand out about discipline or consistency involving players you’ve coached well i mean i told the story
    0:54:01 of edelman you know catching balls before the super bowl tennis balls and stuff like that i mean those kind
    0:54:08 of things that um you know that players do they have a routine and you know if a guy’s played eight nine
    0:54:15 ten whatever years um if they skip a day in their routine i mean is it going to be the end
    0:54:23 probably not but they’re just so disciplined and so consistent to just continue to do it uh and maybe even
    0:54:31 do just a little tiny bit more um to to make sure that they’re prepared for the game uh especially the big games
    0:54:39 that um that’s that’s just who they are so i mean i i really i really respect that but you know it’s
    0:54:44 it’s a little bit like the shopping cart you know um when nobody’s looking are you going to take the
    0:54:48 shopping cart back and put it in the you know where it belongs or just leave it there in the middle of
    0:54:56 the parking lot and it’s the same thing with a really disciplined uh player and teammate um is is he
    0:55:03 going to be disciplined to you know go in and get treatment after practice um you know even though
    0:55:09 it’s two days before christmas or you know whatever it is where is he just disciplined to
    0:55:16 not let something get in the way of of his productive routine and that’s um you know the
    0:55:21 the guys that the guys that do that um i would say have for the most part have had very long and
    0:55:27 productive careers and and the guys that haven’t have careers that that go to a certain point with
    0:55:35 talent uh but they don’t have the same the same kind of uh longevity and consistency uh of a player like
    0:55:41 matt slater or dev mccourty or tom brady or guys like that that people keep saying you just keep
    0:55:45 waiting for those guys to drop off well they’re a year older they’re a year older they’re a year
    0:55:50 older but you don’t see the drop off because their routine and their and their discipline is so
    0:55:56 consistent that they’re able to they’re able to sustain that level of performance um you know
    0:56:02 far longer than really what the expectations in some cases are do you believe you can motivate
    0:56:08 people and if so how i think you can definitely motivate them and and it depends on the person i think
    0:56:13 there are different types of motivation um you know we could uh there were times where i think
    0:56:18 you could really you know motivate a player by just you know flat out challenging them um based on
    0:56:24 something that you know somebody else said or intimated or something that might have happened in
    0:56:33 the past uh i think you can you know motivate people by um uh you know especially you know sometimes
    0:56:40 maybe a more selfish type of player you could motivate by you know making him see uh what the reward is for
    0:56:47 himself as opposed to the team um an example i like to use shane is if you have a receiver and
    0:56:51 you want the receiver to come in and block on a running play and come in and block a safety which is a hard
    0:56:57 job um you know some receivers don’t really want to do that they’re really not too excited about that
    0:57:01 they want to catch passes um but if you say well look if you come in and block this guy
    0:57:06 um and we need you to block him as a team we need you to block him we’ve come in and block this guy
    0:57:12 um then the next time we come in and and you’ll do the same thing but fake it and we’ll be able to throw
    0:57:17 you a pass when the defense comes up to solve the play well the player’s not coming in to block him
    0:57:22 because you asked him to block him and we need really need you to block him um that julian edelman
    0:57:28 would do that but it’s not everybody would necessarily do that uh but when they understand
    0:57:33 okay if i come in and do it this time that opens up an opportunity for me the next time
    0:57:41 uh then they might do it right and so now i get what i want he gets what he wants um there’s some
    0:57:48 management and motivation in there but in the end um both parties are able to accomplish their goals
    0:57:56 i get the team goal the player gets the individual goal he sacrifices for the team but for the other
    0:58:02 reasons um so uh again i think there are different methods of doing that it really depends on you know
    0:58:09 how the player is wired and maybe what circumstances you know you can use certainly when you’ve lost to a
    0:58:16 team previously um that’s a pretty good motivator for for most of these guys um because you know you
    0:58:23 take those losses personally and since we lost as a team that is everybody it’s not you know one guy got
    0:58:29 a pass caught on them or one guy got tackled i mean it’s it’s a full team loss so a lot of times you can
    0:58:37 you know you can generate a lot of um uh energy towards your opponent by um you know referencing that you
    0:58:43 know that that loss or situation that might have happened in a previous encounter as a leader how
    0:58:50 did you know when to be hard on players and when to sort of back off and i’m thinking you know when a
    0:58:55 player makes a critical mistake in a game and they know they’ve made a mistake what’s your role in that
    0:59:01 moment well again shan i think it depends on the mistake you know if it’s um sometimes you know
    0:59:06 something that kind of unexpectedly happens and maybe the player made a bad decision or maybe he did something
    0:59:12 that you know he’s caught that pass 100 times and and he’s dropped it once and this is the one time
    0:59:20 um you know uh some of those are a little easier to handle um i’d say the ones where you know you’ve
    0:59:24 told the player 10 times this is what you need to do when this happens and then they don’t do it i’d
    0:59:29 say the reaction is a little bit different in that situation you know how many times they have to be told
    0:59:33 and you know what maybe maybe you know you just don’t want to do it we’ll put somebody else in there to do it
    0:59:39 because i can see that you know you’re not you know you just don’t care enough to follow your
    0:59:45 assignment so um you know it kind of depends on those i i think one of the biggest things in football
    0:59:52 is correcting mistakes and we all make a lot of them um but when during the game when time is of the
    0:59:58 essence and you don’t have much time um you need to figure out what went wrong pretty quickly and fix it so
    1:00:06 let’s say defensively we came off the field and we’d given up a 20-yard run um and maybe a 15-yard
    1:00:11 pass and another third down conversion and say okay all right like what are the issues on these plays
    1:00:19 well let’s say the 15-yard run would be if one person knows that that they messed the play up
    1:00:24 and just says hey it’s my fault i messed it up like that was we were in good shape i was right there i
    1:00:29 shouldn’t made the tackle i just missed the tackle i’ll make that play the next time well great that
    1:00:33 clears it up for everybody we all know we’re gonna do the same thing we did the last time and and this
    1:00:41 time i know that you know my teammates going to make the tackle versus um you know kind of a blame game
    1:00:47 where i was here and i don’t know i should have been there and should i do this and should i do that
    1:00:54 and was i too deep and this and that and then it’s you know what’s the issue how do we fix it right and
    1:01:00 so if you know you did something wrong just own it all right admit it and and let’s move on um sometimes
    1:01:04 it’s not that simple sometimes you kind of have to figure out well i did what i thought i was supposed
    1:01:08 to do you do you were supposed to do he did what he was supposed to do we still had a problem okay now
    1:01:15 that needs to be fixed and so um but again identifying mistakes and fixing them quickly is really the name
    1:01:24 of the game and if as a coach you know when i would say um look that was that play was it was a bad call
    1:01:30 i shouldn’t have called that defense against uh that personnel group or against that formation uh that’s my
    1:01:34 fault it’s all me i’m not going to do that again forget about that play it’s not going to come up
    1:01:40 again because i won’t call it again in that situation okay well then all right we’ll stop worrying about
    1:01:45 that play let’s worry about something else so owning up to those mistakes and and making the corrections is
    1:01:51 key if you don’t know what it is exactly then then that’s when you have to figure it out pretty quickly
    1:01:56 whether those are players or coaches or some combination because if you don’t you’re just going
    1:02:00 to keep you know you keep dealing with the same issue over and over again and you know none of us
    1:02:06 want that when i say the words on to cincinnati what does that mean to you on the cincinnati well
    1:02:15 it first of all means it was a long night in kansas city um you know we got we got totally beaten in
    1:02:23 that game um out coached out played out everything they were just a far superior team than we were and
    1:02:27 as a head coach you have to look at that and say you know i didn’t have our team you know where they
    1:02:33 should have been and we didn’t play well we didn’t do anything well and it starts with me um
    1:02:38 but that game’s in the books it’s over and there’s nothing we can do about it we can’t get it back
    1:02:46 so or we just have to move on to cincinnati and make sure that we don’t perform next week
    1:02:51 like we did last week you know don’t let one game become two bad games don’t let it become three bad
    1:02:59 games don’t let it become a habit um change the things that we need to change so um we played
    1:03:04 cincinnati the following week and you know our players did a great job of putting the kansas city
    1:03:11 game behind us and focusing on what we needed to improve on and and and do better and get ready for
    1:03:18 cincinnati who was you know a very good football team as well at that time and so um you know we’re
    1:03:24 able to do that and you know it it became you know one of those one of those catchphrases but
    1:03:31 really the idea of it was move on and let’s start getting ready for next week it’s kind of similar to
    1:03:39 the situation we had in uh 2001 uh shame where we buried the ball you know we we lost to miami we
    1:03:45 we didn’t play very well obviously didn’t coach very well and we came back and you know we just took the
    1:03:52 team out there i got a shovel i dug a hole i took the ball uh you know we put it in the ground put the
    1:03:59 dirt on the ball we stomp on it we spit on it we kicked it we you know took our frustrations out but
    1:04:08 that was the funeral game’s over it’s done we lost buried the ball buried our feelings move on i’m not
    1:04:15 saying that was you know this great thing but visually it it’s sort of the point of it was put
    1:04:23 the game out of your mind it’s over we’ve had the funeral life goes on i’ve heard you say we’re building
    1:04:29 a team not collecting talent what’s the difference the difference is it so it fits together so that the
    1:04:36 the team is functionally as efficient as it can be uh not just a bunch of guys wearing the same same
    1:04:43 uniform uh with different numbers but um a group of people who function well together you know as a team
    1:04:50 and when you think about football um shane football is a team of teams right you you have the offense you
    1:04:56 have a defense you have a hands team you have a punt return team you have a nickel defense you have a dime
    1:05:02 defense you have a goal line offense and so forth you have all these teams and they all come together to
    1:05:11 form one championship team and so you know the idea is whichever team you’re on um you need to be the
    1:05:17 very best team that you can be in that situation if it’s a hands team it’s a punt return team whatever
    1:05:23 it is like that is critical to our success and you have your responsibilities on that team i have my
    1:05:29 responsibilities on some different teams but ultimately we all come together and and those
    1:05:36 shared responsibilities and those shared teams um so that we can operate together functionally as a team
    1:05:41 are are really what we’re trying to accomplish so it’s not just getting a bunch of guys who
    1:05:47 you know can do have good skills um and can run fast and jump high or whatever i mean that helps
    1:05:53 of course but they have to be able to operate as a team and as a team of teams and you know a lot of
    1:06:00 that is a mentality is a willingness to uh to communicate and work with and efficiently uh cooperate
    1:06:05 with your teammates so that collectively we can accomplish our goals when when our units are on the field
    1:06:12 how has coaching changed in the past five years you know outside of rules changes and and things like
    1:06:22 that um you know there are some trends and i know i think as look when you’re on defense you have to react
    1:06:26 to the offense right if the offense have three has three tight ends on the field you’re not going to be
    1:06:31 playing the same defense that you had when they have three receivers on the field um so defensively a lot of
    1:06:36 what you you have to deal with now you can say look we’re going to play the same thing and make them
    1:06:43 adjust to us but i mean there are certain matchups that just become um you know difficult to to sustain
    1:06:51 that philosophy so um again what i’d say is it’s important to defensively be able to adapt to what the
    1:06:56 offense is doing because ultimately you don’t control who they put on the field you just have to stop them
    1:07:02 you know offensively um you know you take the talent that you have and try to make the most of
    1:07:08 it so um i would say in college football which is where we get our resources from in the nfl
    1:07:14 um you know some of that’s a function of of what’s available you know what’s coming out uh what they’re
    1:07:19 teaching in college what type of players they’re developing um because that’s really what you have to
    1:07:24 choose from so i do think there are some trends but fundamentally it it really comes down to
    1:07:30 you know having good solid fundamentals um and doing the little things right that will enable
    1:07:35 you to win your one-on-one matchups and i’d say i don’t think those have changed um too dramatically
    1:07:42 over the years on the way out of the building you had a sign that read ignore the noise manage
    1:07:49 expectations speak for yourself and don’t believe the fuel or hype can you walk me through those
    1:07:57 yeah absolutely absolutely um well speak for yourself as is you know pretty obvious um
    1:08:02 you know if you have any comments to make just make them you know personally you know don’t say things
    1:08:07 like well shane’s looking really good this year i mean he should probably have 15 sacks the way he’s
    1:08:12 he’s rushing the passer you know and start making expectations and predictions for other people things
    1:08:20 like that ignore the noise i mean there’s so much um airtime that’s filled uh whether it’s uh on the
    1:08:28 radio on the internet on tv of people talking about football all right and players and matchups and
    1:08:34 everything and again with all due respect and look i’ve been part of that too so i understand but
    1:08:40 um you know with all due respect the people that talk about it haven’t been in our building they
    1:08:44 haven’t watched us practice they haven’t watched us prepare for the game they don’t know what our
    1:08:50 matchups are they don’t know what you know they don’t know what our game plan is um so with all due
    1:08:56 respect what they say as it relates to us it doesn’t matter if other fans want to listen to them i mean
    1:09:01 that’s great but you know when they say well you know shane parish has got to shut down belichick or
    1:09:09 they’re going to lose that’s you know it’s just hot air so ignore the noise it’s just ignore what
    1:09:14 other people who aren’t really don’t know what they’re talking about are saying and focus on what
    1:09:19 the people in our building in this room are saying what your teammates are saying how they can how you
    1:09:24 can communicate with them how you can anticipate a play and and help them react to it and that kind of
    1:09:30 thing um you know don’t feel the hype you know when things are going good i mean people can’t wait to
    1:09:37 you know you’re three and oh and they’re selling super bowl tickets and they’re already talking about
    1:09:46 you know repeats and all this stuff and our thing was don’t don’t add into that if other people say it
    1:09:54 we can’t control that once we say it now now we have to own it you know and so uh belichick says you
    1:10:00 know um uh we should be in the afc championship game and we’ve only played four games well then
    1:10:05 everybody else has to react to that oh shane what do you think about what belichick said tom what do
    1:10:09 you think about what belichick said grok what do you think about you know you it just creates a
    1:10:16 distraction so um fueling the hype or believing the hype that four games into the season we’re talking
    1:10:24 about an afc championship game is i mean ridiculous it’s just way too premature so you know don’t deal
    1:10:29 with that one what was the last one ignore the noise don’t feel the hype speak for yourself manage
    1:10:36 expectations manage expectations right and so like what are realistic expectations this week it’s to
    1:10:40 beat the team we’re playing like our focus is on beating buffalo this week that’s who we play
    1:10:48 that’s where we’re at um you know in terms of win the division you know which is eight weeks away from
    1:10:54 now don’t talk about man winning the division like that’s not an expectation we can’t achieve that
    1:10:59 right now even if we wanted to it’s only the fourth game of the year now if this was the game to win the
    1:11:04 division then okay let’s talk about winning the division but until we get to that point you know manage
    1:11:10 the expectations the expectations are to have a good day today have a good week and to win this game
    1:11:18 those are our weekly you know and expectations you know not where we’re going to be in january who
    1:11:24 we’re going to play in the playoffs or um again managing expectations of like oh this guy should
    1:11:30 go out and you know he should have 200 2 000 yards receiving why don’t you just worry about what you’re
    1:11:35 going to do and you know stop talking about what other people what your expectations are for them
    1:11:41 that’s speaking for yourself but that’s also uh managing expectations or or a player saying well
    1:11:47 i expect to you know i expect to go to the pro bowl well is that your goal to go to the pro bowl or is our
    1:11:51 goal to win a championship and let’s go back here for a minute you know what what are our expectations
    1:11:57 like let’s let’s think about what’s first thing first put the team first you know and that’s you know
    1:12:03 team teammates self that was the whole you know um progression of you know trying to put the priorities
    1:12:09 in order for for each of us i want to end i usually end with one question about success but i actually
    1:12:14 want to change that a little bit here and flip that around and i want to talk about the atlanta super bowl
    1:12:22 you’re down 28 to 3 and the thing that astounded me as a fan uh who’s watched a lot of football and a lot
    1:12:28 of games uh was that nobody was sort of like hanging their head you know you look at brady on the sideline
    1:12:36 you’re down 25 points and he still had confidence yeah you know shane it’s funny sometimes you play a game
    1:12:41 and you feel like you have control of the game but you don’t have control of the score
    1:12:47 and that was that game um i felt like we had pretty good control of the game but we didn’t control the score
    1:12:53 at all there are other games where you have control of the score and you don’t have control of the game
    1:13:00 you know maybe you’re ahead by 10 points but you know they fumbled they threw an interception
    1:13:05 you got a lucky break and and you’re ahead but you really haven’t been able to move the ball you really
    1:13:10 haven’t been able to stop them um they’ve just fumbled it away a couple times and and you kind of
    1:13:15 maybe got a lucky play to to you know get your points and so you feel like you don’t have control
    1:13:20 of the game but you’re ahead on the scoreboard and what you really want of course is to have control
    1:13:27 of the game and control the score um but in that game we had a real confidence at halftime when it was 21
    1:13:35 to 3 that um you know we’d given up a touchdown on a third and goal from the 12 we gave up a pick six
    1:13:43 we fumbled going in um you know we missed some opportunities uh to you know maybe be tie or could
    1:13:50 have even been ahead in the game at halftime 10-7 or maybe 10-10 something like that and so yeah the score
    1:13:57 was bad but we felt like we were had control of the game well then they go out and score make it 28 to 3
    1:14:04 and now i’m thinking you know we might have control of the game at 25 points is a lot to make up and
    1:14:11 there’s a lot of things that have to go right um so two two-point conversions and a strip sack and
    1:14:16 two kickoffs where we tackled them inside the 15-yard line so they couldn’t get in the field goal range
    1:14:22 um and another sack and another holding penalty and literally everything went right for us in the last
    1:14:27 you know 20 minutes of the game there was no lack of confidence because we actually felt like we had
    1:14:33 control of the game we were moving the ball we were playing good defense but we just had a couple of bad
    1:14:39 plays in there that that skewed us and skewed the score um but once that kind of settled down
    1:14:46 you know we we were okay and um and then once we kind of got rolling again we had some plays that
    1:14:51 we needed to make and and we made them you know um on both sides of the ball and in the kicking game
    1:14:56 on those kickoffs so um everything had to go right and it did and we were very fortunate in that one
    1:15:01 i really appreciate you taking the time today coach belichick and thank you for writing uh the art of
    1:15:06 winning i loved reading it it was a great read thanks jane i appreciate it thanks for the opportunity
    1:15:12 to be on uh it was a pleasure enjoyed speaking with you and um i look forward to catching up down the
    1:15:17 road you know i just uh would be remiss if i didn’t you know say how much uh you know michael
    1:15:24 lombardi has contributed to to my career and indirectly to this book i mean a lot of the things that that we
    1:15:29 talk about and i talk about here are things that i share with mike or that mike helped me do and um you
    1:15:36 know it’s great to be able to work with mike uh you know at north carolina um but he’s a um a
    1:15:42 great motivator very well organized uh very efficient and you know as an excellent partner
    1:15:48 to you know to build the program down there so um i really appreciate all of uh not only mike’s help
    1:15:56 but his guidance and and you know his uh the daily coach and and the um you know the motivation that
    1:16:01 he puts out on a daily basis is something that you know we all uh look forward to and enjoy carolina
    1:16:06 i’m looking forward to getting down there watching again i look forward to having you shane
    1:16:13 thanks for listening and learning with us be sure to sign up for my free weekly newsletter at fs.blog
    1:16:18 slash newsletter the farnham street website is also where you can get more info on our membership program
    1:16:25 which includes access to episode transcripts my repository ad-free episodes and more follow myself
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    1:16:42 you
    1:16:42 you

    Eight Super Bowl rings. Six with the Patriots. And a mindset that goes far deeper than football. In this rare, wide-ranging conversation, Bill Belichick breaks down the invisible factors behind sustained excellence: discipline, preparation, and the mental edge that separates contenders from champions. He shares the surprising reason he kept Tom Brady as a fourth-string rookie, why talent alone is never enough at the highest level, and how true competitors find ways to win long after their gifts fade. 

    You’ll hear why Belichick cut a player the week of the Super Bowl, how technology is changing player preparation and locker room culture, and why “we have control of the game” became the rallying belief in the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history. This episode covers everything from how he decides when to push a player—or pull back—to how trust is built inside elite teams. Belichick also explains why the price of success is always paid in advance—and why there’s no shortcut around the work. If you lead a team, or want to lead yourself better, this episode is a masterclass from the greatest football mind of our time. 

    Approximate timestamps: Subject to variation due to dynamically inserted ads:
    (00:42) Patriots’ Employee Guiding Principles
    (04:25) Talent vs Hard Work
    (05:43) Competitive Spirit
    (10:38) You Cannot Win Until You Keep From Losing
    (15:11) The Drawer and Prioritizing Your Goals
    (17:07) Social Media, Technology, and Football
    (24:45) Preparation and Success
    (27:55) Confidence In The NFL
    (29:45) Kobe Bryant & Learning To Evolve As You Get Older
    (31:02) Other Guest Speakers And Their Lessons
    (32:28) Disciplining NFL Players
    (39:45) Working Your Way Up & How To Train Staff
    (47:56) Motivation & Discipline
    (56:08) Correcting Mistakes and Moving On
    (58:28) Building A Team vs Collecting Talent
    (01:00:13) How Has NFL Coaching Changed In The Last 5 Years?
    (01:01:43) 4 Patriot Rules For Staying Grounded
    (01:06:11) Super Bowl LI Patriots’ Comeback

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  • #229 Outliers: Andy Grove – Only The Paranoid Survive

    AI transcript
    0:00:06 Through his office window at Intel headquarters, Andy Grove could see the Ferris wheel of Great
    0:00:11 America Amusement Park spinning in the distance. But the document in front of him offered no such
    0:00:18 entertainment. Gordon Moore, yes, that Gordon Moore of Moore’s Law fame, drops into the visitor’s
    0:00:24 chair, his face grim. The latest memory chip numbers are catastrophic. After quarters of
    0:00:31 watching Japanese competitors demolish Intel’s market share from 83% to a mere 1.3%,
    0:00:39 this situation had become existential. In a standard issue 8×9 cubicle, Grove insisted executives use the
    0:00:44 same workspace as everyone else. He asked a question that would change history. If we got
    0:00:50 kicked out and the board brought in a new CEO, what do you think he would do? Gordon answers without
    0:00:57 hesitation. He’d get us out of memories. This reply hits Grove like a physical blow. After a moment of
    0:01:02 stunned silence, he delivers the line that would save Intel. Why shouldn’t you and I walk out the door,
    0:01:09 come back in, and do it ourselves? No dramatic music swells, no chest-bumping celebration, just the sound
    0:01:15 of two men exhaling as they mentally prepare to abandon the very product that built their company.
    0:01:23 Intel in 1985 was a memory company. The business generated over 90% of their revenue and it would
    0:01:29 soon be gone. The pivot would cost thousands of jobs, millions in R&D, and require shuttering
    0:01:34 eight manufacturing plants. But by detaching themselves emotionally and viewing the situation
    0:01:40 from an outsider’s perspective, Grove and Moore had found clarity in crisis. Grove would later distill
    0:01:47 this ruthless, clear-sightedness into a mantra for corporate survival. Only the paranoid survive.
    0:01:53 This wasn’t just a catchy business slogan, it was survival wisdom earned through trauma. For Grove,
    0:02:00 paranoia wasn’t pathological, it was practical. And its seeds were planted a continent away half a century
    0:02:07 earlier when a hard-of-hearing Jewish boy named Andras Grof was learning to detect danger before it arrived
    0:02:11 while hiding from Nazi death squads in wartime Budapest.
    0:02:31 Welcome to The Knowledge Project. I’m your host, Shane Parrish. In a world where knowledge is power,
    0:02:36 this podcast is your toolkit for mastering the best of what other people have already figured out.
    0:02:44 The story of Andy Grove is about survival in its most elemental form. Imagine transforming yourself
    0:02:49 from a child hiding from Nazi death squads in Budapest to becoming Time Magazine’s man of the year
    0:02:56 and the CEO who saved Intel. That journey isn’t just remarkable, it’s almost incomprehensible. Yet,
    0:03:00 Grove himself would scoff at any narrative involving destiny or divine intervention.
    0:03:06 His philosophy, captured in the book title, Only the Paranoid Survive, offers a far more practical
    0:03:13 explanation. Detect threats before they become fatal. Whether it’s the sound of jackboots on
    0:03:18 cobblestone streets or Japanese competitors overtaking your memory chip business, survival demands the same
    0:03:25 skills. Constant vigilance, brutal self-assessment, and the courage to abandon what wants to find you.
    0:03:31 The same boy who learned to read danger in a stranger’s glance would later read impending doom
    0:03:38 in market share statistics. Different contexts, identical skills. Today’s episode isn’t just about
    0:03:44 technology or business strategy, it’s about developing a mindset that thrives in environments of
    0:03:50 radical change. Something all of us face today, regardless of our field. What made Grove extraordinary
    0:03:56 wasn’t technical genius, but his ability to see reality clearly when others couldn’t? While his
    0:04:03 contemporaries remained emotionally attached to past decisions, Grove asked the questions no one dared to
    0:04:10 ask. What if we’re wrong? What if everything we built needs to be abandoned? Grove’s lessons on
    0:04:16 strategic inflection points offer something invaluable, a framework for detecting existential threats
    0:04:21 before they destroy you. Drawing from his autobiography and Richard Tedlow’s definitive
    0:04:26 biography, this episode reveals how Grove’s traumatic childhood shaped his leadership approach,
    0:04:30 how he taught himself to become a world-class manager, and how he saved intel by walking away
    0:04:36 from the very product that built it. Remember to stay until the end for lessons you can take away from
    0:04:41 this episode. After all, inflection points don’t announce themselves with press releases. They whisper
    0:04:47 first, then shout, then destroy. In Grove’s world, paranoia isn’t anxiety, it’s attention paid to
    0:04:59 whispers others dismiss. It’s time to listen and learn. This podcast is for entertainment purposes only.
    0:05:11 Let’s begin at the beginning. Andreas Estevan Grof was born in 1936 to a middle-class Jewish family in
    0:05:16 Budapest, Hungary. His father co-owned a dairy business. His mother was, in Grove’s words,
    0:05:22 cultured without being snobbish. They were thoroughly assimilated into Hungarian society. That is, until
    0:05:29 everything changed. When Andreas was just five, his father was conscripted into a Jewish labor battalion,
    0:05:35 essentially a death sentence of forced labor on the Eastern Front. Young Andreas noticed something that
    0:05:40 day he’d never forget. His father was trying to smile, but there was something wrong with his smile.
    0:05:45 In the spring of 1943, the family received notice that George Grof had disappeared.
    0:05:51 Andreas, now six, was bewildered by this term while watching his mother retreat into smoking in solitary
    0:05:58 grief. Amid this trauma, Andreas contracted scarlet fever, confining him for months and permanently
    0:06:05 damaging his hearing. Yet years later, Grove reflected on how this seeming handicap became an unexpected
    0:06:06 asset. He wrote,
    0:06:12 I had to be quicker at processing nonverbal signs and more attentive to signals. And most important,
    0:06:18 because I often understood only parts of sentences, I had to exercise my mind constantly.
    0:06:24 What’s instructive here is Grove’s capacity to transform disadvantage into strength. The hearing
    0:06:30 loss that isolated him socially became his edge in business. While others heard noise, Grove detected
    0:06:35 patterns. While others waited for complete information, Grove decided with fragments.
    0:06:40 The little limitation that made childhood harder became the foundation of his leadership genius.
    0:06:45 Life rarely deals perfect hands. The winners aren’t those with the best cards, but those who play
    0:06:52 difficult hands exceptionally well. The situation for Hungarian Jews deteriorated dramatically in March of
    0:06:59 1944 when Nazi Germany directly occupied the country. The eight-year-old Andreas watched as German soldiers
    0:07:05 marched into Budapest. There were no announcements and there was no fighting. They just came in. My mother
    0:07:10 and I stood on the sidewalk of the ring road watching as the cars and troop carriers filled with soldiers
    0:07:16 drove by. The German soldiers didn’t look anything like the soldiers who had guarded my father’s labor unit.
    0:07:22 Those soldiers slouched a bit and their uniforms were wrinkled. The German soldiers were neat,
    0:07:29 more shiny boots and had self-confident air about them. They reminded me of my toy soldiers. Within days,
    0:07:35 Adolf Eichmann arrived with a small but efficient commando unit to eliminate Hungary’s Jewish population.
    0:07:43 They moved with terrifying speed. By July of 1944, most Jews outside of Budapest had been deported to
    0:07:50 Auschwitz and murdered. Young Andreas experienced the casual cruelty of anti-Semitism firsthand when a
    0:07:55 playmate suddenly announced that Jesus Christ was killed by the Jews and because of that all the Jews
    0:08:01 would be thrown into the Danube. Andreas ran to his mother in tears and never returned to that park again.
    0:08:08 By late summer, Andy and his mother were forced into a designated star house and required to wear yellow
    0:08:14 stars in public. People avoided looking at us. Even people we knew wouldn’t meet our eyes. It was as if
    0:08:21 a barrier was growing between us and everyone else. In October 1944, as Hungary’s homegrown fascist
    0:08:28 organization seized power, Andy’s mother made a fateful decision. Andreas, she said, “We have to get out of here.”
    0:08:36 This paranoid vigilance would save their lives. Maria obtained false identity papers with a Slavic surname,
    0:08:42 and they went into hiding, posing as non-Jewish refugees. The danger was constant. Being circumcised
    0:08:48 would immediately identify Andreas as Jewish if he was discovered, so his mother warned him not to
    0:08:53 urinate when others were present in their communal bathroom. When children were gathered to recite
    0:08:59 Christian prayers, Andreas feigned illness and ran to his mother, who quickly created a distraction.
    0:09:05 This ability to detect threats and take decisive action would later become the cornerstone of Grove’s
    0:09:10 leadership philosophy decades later. As he would later write, the ability to recognize that the winds
    0:09:16 have shifted and to take appropriate action before you wreck your boat is crucial to the future of an
    0:09:23 enterprise. Grove learned early that survival depends not just on recognizing danger, but on acting before
    0:09:32 it’s too late. A lesson that would later save Intel. By January of 1945, the Soviet Red Army reached Budapest,
    0:09:37 transforming the city into a battleground. Sheltering in a cellar during the bombardment,
    0:09:42 Andreas and his mother had a remarkable encounter with a Russian sergeant who spoke German. After
    0:09:48 establishing communication, Maria made a bold request. She asked Andreas to recite a Hebrew prayer he had
    0:09:54 learned at school. The boy was terrified. After months where revealing their Jewish identity meant
    0:10:00 certain death, his mother was asking him to expose them, but she assured him it was safe. As he recited
    0:10:06 the prayer, the Russian sergeant smiled with recognition. He too was Jewish. The Germans had killed his entire
    0:10:13 family in Russia. Liberation brought relief, but also new horrors. Andreas witnessed his mother being sexually
    0:10:19 assaulted by a Russian soldier. The next day when they reported the crime to military authorities,
    0:10:26 Maria made the extraordinary decision not to identify her attacker. She had calculated that if she named him,
    0:10:31 he would be executed immediately, but his comrades would likely return and murder everyone in their shelter
    0:10:40 in retaliation. Even in this most personal violation, Maria demonstrated the cold strategic calculus that
    0:10:46 her son would later apply to business decisions. Sometimes you must accept a terrible injustice
    0:10:51 when the alternative is destruction. The profound impact of witnessing such moments where survival
    0:10:58 required painful compromise rather than righteous action shaped Andreas’s world view forever. He was
    0:11:05 not yet nine years old. In the aftermath of the war, something remarkable happened. Andy’s father,
    0:11:10 George Grof returned home. He had indeed disappeared, but somehow survived the Eastern Front and made his
    0:11:17 way back to Budapest. The family reunited, though forever changed by their experiences. Under Soviet occupation,
    0:11:23 Hungary transformed into a communist state. The dairy business George had co-owned was nationalized.
    0:11:29 Both parents found government work. Georgian retail management, Maria, at the now state-owned dairy.
    0:11:35 Their apartment once again filled with visitors, creating a facade of normalcy that masked the trauma
    0:11:40 that they had endured. Young Andreas threw himself into education, displaying the fierce intelligence
    0:11:47 and disciplined work ethic that would later define his career. His insatiable curiosity and aptitude
    0:11:52 for mathematics and science set him apart. At the prestigious Madrick gymnasium, his physics teacher
    0:12:00 made a prediction that would later inspire the title of Grof’s memoir, “Life is a big lake. All the boys get
    0:12:07 in the water at one end and start swimming. Not all of them will swim across, but one of them I’m sure will. That
    0:12:15 one is Grof.” The teacher’s words resonated deeply. Decades later, Grof would title his autobiography “Swimming
    0:12:21 across,” and conclude it with, “As my teacher Volensky predicted, I managed to swim across the lake, not
    0:12:27 without effort, not without setbacks, and with a great deal of help and encouragement from others. I am
    0:12:33 still swimming.” But before Andreas could fully test those waters, Hungary’s political situation would once
    0:12:40 again upend his life. Most mornings I start my day with a smoothie. It’s a secret recipe the kids and
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    0:13:49 What do we mean by almost? You can’t get a well-groomed lawn delivered, but you can get
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    0:14:04 In 1956, when Andreas was 20 and a university student in Budapest, revolution erupted across
    0:14:09 Hungary. What began as a student demonstration against Soviet control quickly escalated into
    0:14:14 a nationwide uprising. For a brief exhilarating moment, it seemed the Hungarian people might
    0:14:19 win their freedom. Andreas participated in early demonstrations, but he had learned from childhood
    0:14:25 the fatal cost of misreading political winds. When Soviet tanks rolled into Budapest on November 4th
    0:14:31 to crush the uprising, he recognized the patterns of oppression unfolding once again. He would later
    0:14:36 write, “I was deathly afraid that the Soviets would seal the borders completely, and I knew once they
    0:14:42 did that, anybody who had participated in any way in the uprising would have to pay the price. I had an
    0:14:48 uneasy feeling that I would have a very bleak future in Hungary.” So on November 20th, Andreas slipped away
    0:14:54 from his parents’ apartment, carrying only what fit in his pockets. He joined thousands of refugees
    0:14:59 streaming towards the Austrian border. Guided by local farmers through secret roads, he waded through
    0:15:05 icy marshes in darkness, evading Soviet patrols. This crossing wasn’t merely physically dangerous,
    0:15:11 it represented a complete severance from the past. Andreas had no guarantee he would ever see his parents
    0:15:16 again. He carried no photographs, no memories, just the clothes on his back and the determination to
    0:15:22 start anew. When he reached Austria, America seemed the obvious destination. He had relatives in New York
    0:15:26 whom he’d never met, but they were his only connection to what would become his new home,
    0:15:32 and ultimately the launching pad for one of the most remarkable business careers of the 20th century.
    0:15:38 Andreas Groff arrived in the United States in January of 1957, penniless, speaking broken English,
    0:15:45 and knowing almost no one. His transformation into Andy Groff was about to begin. His first night in
    0:15:51 America revealed both the promise and challenges ahead. At the Refugee Center Hotel, he encountered
    0:15:57 a vending machine. He wrote, “It was a miracle. You put money in and food comes out. This would never
    0:16:01 happen in Hungary. Either the machine would take your money and give you nothing, or more likely,
    0:16:06 there would be no machines and no food.” Andy enrolled at the City College of New York,
    0:16:11 supporting himself as a waiter while studying with relentless discipline. Despite the language
    0:16:18 barriers and his hearing impairment, he graduated first in his chemical engineering class in 1960.
    0:16:25 It was during this time that Andreas Groff became Andrew Grove, a change he made with characteristic
    0:16:30 pragmatism. As he later explained, “I found myself spending too much time spelling my name out to people,
    0:16:36 then repeating it, then having it come back mispronounced or misspelled. I translated the name
    0:16:41 from Hungarian, where Groff means count in the aristocratic sense. Groff seemed close enough.”
    0:16:48 This wasn’t merely a practical decision. It represented Groff’s methodical approach to success.
    0:16:54 He didn’t just immigrate to America. He systematically transformed himself into an American.
    0:17:01 At City College, Andy met Eva Kasten, a fellow refugee who had come from Austria by way of Bolivia.
    0:17:06 They married in 1958 and would remain together for the rest of their life. After graduation,
    0:17:12 Groff earned his PhD in chemical engineering from Berkeley in just three years. Though academically
    0:17:17 brilliant, he was restless to apply his knowledge. “I want to do something useful,” he would say over and
    0:17:24 over again. When a Berkeley professor suggested solid-state physics as an emerging field, Groff approached his
    0:17:30 career hunt with characteristic thoroughness. He researched 22 different companies, dividing them
    0:17:36 into two categories: jobs for which he was qualified but uninterested, and those that interested him but
    0:17:43 where he might be underqualified. This methodical approach led him to Fairchild Semiconductor in 1963,
    0:17:49 where he immediately connected with research director Gordon Moore, a relationship that would shape
    0:17:55 technological history. What’s remarkable here is Groff’s systematic approach to opportunity. While most
    0:18:00 immigrants struggled to find any job, Groff was strategically positioning himself at the intersection
    0:18:06 of his skills and emerging industries. He didn’t just adapt to America, he methodically analyzed where he could
    0:18:14 create maximal impact, a preview of the strategic thinking that would later save intel. Before diving deeper into
    0:18:20 Groff’s career at Fairchild, we need a brief history of how the entire semiconductor industry began.
    0:18:26 Silicon Valley’s origin traces back to December 26, 1947, when three scientists at Bell Laboratories
    0:18:33 created the first working transistor. William Shockley, John Bardeen, and Walter Bratton had invented a device
    0:18:40 that would replace bulky vacuum tubes in electronics, arguably one of the most important inventions in the history
    0:18:45 of the world. In a typical East Coast corporate story, these men would have remained at Bell Labs,
    0:18:51 collecting patents and promotions while safely ensconded in a major corporation. But Shockley had different
    0:18:57 ideas. In 1955, he left Bell Labs to establish Shockley Semiconductor Laboratory in Mountain View,
    0:19:03 California. He recruited brilliant young engineers, including Gordon Moore and Robert Noyce. However,
    0:19:09 despite his scientific genius, Shockley proved to be a disastrous manager. He was controlling,
    0:19:16 erratic, and paranoid. By 1957, eight of his top researchers, later dubbed the traitorous eight,
    0:19:20 could no longer tolerate Shockley’s leadership. Moore and Noyce among them, they approached a young
    0:19:26 investment banker named Arthur Rock, who helped them secure funding from Fairchild Camera. Fairchild
    0:19:34 Semiconductor was born in October 1957. This moment established the pattern that would define
    0:19:38 Silicon Valley. Talented people leaving established companies to form startups, backed by investors
    0:19:44 willing to bet on unproven technologies, which is a radical departure from the East Coast business
    0:19:49 culture at the time. The next few years at Fairchild produced extraordinary breakthroughs.
    0:19:54 They developed the process for semiconductor manufacturing, and they developed the integrated
    0:19:59 circuit, building on work done at Texas Instruments. When Fairchild Camera exercised its options to
    0:20:06 buy out the founders in 1959, each received $250,000, which is over $2.5 million today, for their initial
    0:20:14 $500 investment. Silicon Valley’s reputation for turning sand into gold was born. This transaction sparked a
    0:20:20 financial ecosystem unlike anything before it. Success breeds success with wealthy engineers funding
    0:20:26 new ventures. Dozens of semiconductor firms would eventually trace their lineage back to Shockley’s
    0:20:32 laboratory. By the time Grove arrived at Fairchild in 1963, the company was the epicenter of technological
    0:20:39 revolution. Moore and Noyce had already become legends. The culture valued technical brilliance, but as Grove would
    0:20:45 soon discover, it lacked managerial discipline. For a recent immigrant with a strong accent and hearing problems,
    0:20:52 Silicon Valley offered something traditional corporate America didn’t: a pure meritocracy, where problem-solving
    0:20:58 ability trumped pedigree. It was the perfect environment for Grove’s combination of technical brilliance,
    0:21:04 determination, and willingness to question orthodoxy. What’s significant here is that Grove joined a
    0:21:10 culture that was simultaneously revolutionary and yet, at the same time, deeply flawed. Silicon Valley had
    0:21:16 technical brilliance, but lacked organizational discipline. Precisely the gap that Grove, with his
    0:21:22 Eastern European understanding that systems mattered as much as individual genius, was uniquely positioned
    0:21:28 to fill. Now, let’s see what Grove encountered when he joined this revolutionary industry. Andy’s first week at
    0:21:34 Fairchild established a pattern that would define his career. On Monday morning, a supervisor handed him a
    0:21:39 Semiconductor physics problem requiring differential equations and data analysis. By Friday,
    0:21:45 Andy had solved it using computer programming skills he had taught himself during his studies, a rare capability
    0:21:52 in a commercial company in 1963. “How lucky can you get?” Andy later marveled. “You show up for work on Monday,
    0:21:58 you’re assigned a problem that you’re uniquely qualified to solve, and you defies a non-obvious solution by Friday.” But
    0:22:04 was it mere luck? Andy had methodically acquired skills beyond what was required, positioning himself in a
    0:22:09 field where they might prove valuable. As Michael Dell would later observe, “He’s smart, he’s shrewd. There’s
    0:22:15 no such thing as lucky a thousand times in a row.” Grove himself would later coin the phrase “earned luck” to
    0:22:23 explain such success. During his five years at Fairchild, Andy displayed extraordinary work ethic. Beyond his day
    0:22:29 job, he authored 30 scientific articles, filed two patents, and taught graduate-level semiconductor
    0:22:34 physics at Berkeley. He challenged conventional wisdom about semiconductor surfaces with data that
    0:22:40 contradicted accepted theory. “When presenting these findings in 1963, the semiconductor establishment
    0:22:46 reacted harshly. I got nailed by all these experts,” Andy recalled, “who would sooner burn witches or equally
    0:22:52 burn me at the stake for being a heretic.” But Andy trusted data over dogma, a trait that would serve
    0:22:57 him throughout his career. Perhaps his most valuable contribution at Fairchild was what he called
    0:23:02 “managing up,” particularly his ability to work with Gordon Moore, the brilliant but conflict-averse
    0:23:07 head of R&D. The device development lab where Andy worked lacked clear expectations and internal
    0:23:12 discipline, mirroring the broader company culture. Andy developed a technique for extracting Moore’s
    0:23:17 insights during contentious meetings. “I would be running a meeting and people would be bashing each other’s
    0:23:22 heads.” Andy explained, “I looked up at Gordon. Something is wrong.” So I’d yell,
    0:23:27 “Stop! Gordon, what’s bothering you?” “Shut up! Gordon, tell us! Whatever you wanted to tell us!”
    0:23:32 Somebody had to stop the traffic. This role of traffic cop for Moore’s insights proved
    0:23:36 invaluable. Moore appreciated Andy’s ability to draw him out once telling him,
    0:23:41 “You know me better than my wife, or at least as well.” Fairchild’s trajectory illustrates the volatile
    0:23:47 nature of the early semiconductor industry. The company skyrocketed from founding to industry dominance,
    0:23:53 then began unraveling due to management missteps. Its technical achievements were revolutionary,
    0:23:59 but the business itself was poorly run. Two things stand out to me here. First, Andy’s willingness to
    0:24:05 follow the data over dogma, even at personal risk. And second was his recognition that technical
    0:24:10 brilliance alone doesn’t build lasting companies. While his peers focused exclusively on innovation,
    0:24:15 Grove was already developing the organizational mindset that would later distinguish Intel.
    0:24:22 By 1967, Andy Grove had reached a crossroads. Fairchild’s semiconductor, where he’d cut his
    0:24:27 professional teeth was hemorrhaging talent. The exodus had begun with the Traitorous Eight,
    0:24:33 engineers who had abandoned Shockley’s lab to form Fairchild. And now Fairchild itself was spawning
    0:24:39 a second generation of Silicon Valley startups. The Valley wasn’t just growing, it was subdividing.
    0:24:44 When Gordon Moore and Robert Noyce announced they were leaving Fairchild in 1968 to launch their own
    0:24:50 semiconductor venture, Grove didn’t hesitate and didn’t wait for an invitation. The moment Moore mentioned
    0:24:54 their plans, Grove immediately declared, “I’m going with you.” And just like that, he became employee
    0:25:01 number three at Intel, short for Integrated Electronics. Intel’s founding trio constituted
    0:25:07 semiconductor royalty. Gordon Moore was the visionary physicist who would soon formulate Moore’s law,
    0:25:11 predicting the doubling of transistor density every two years, a prediction that would drive the
    0:25:16 industry’s ambitions for decades. Robert Noyce, the co-inventor of the integrated circuit,
    0:25:21 brought charismatic leadership and industry credibility that opened doors and investor
    0:25:27 checkbooks. And then there was Andy Grove. What Grove brought to this threesome was something
    0:25:32 altogether different but equally crucial, a ferocious commitment to operational excellence. As one
    0:25:38 industry observer noted, in the semiconductor industry, management talent has been harder to find than
    0:25:43 engineering talent. By becoming a brilliant manager, Grove differentiated himself and the company.
    0:25:50 Here’s the irony. Until Intel’s founding, Grove had shown virtually no interest in business management.
    0:25:55 His published papers all dealt with technical subjects. He was an engineer and by all accounts,
    0:26:01 a brilliant one. But Silicon Valley in the late 1960s was already teeming with technical geniuses.
    0:26:07 What it lacked were leaders who could transform those geniuses into cohesive, productive teams. Fairchild
    0:26:12 was a great example of this, but far from the only one. What’s significant here is Grove’s intuitive
    0:26:18 understanding of complementary skills. While others sought to duplicate their strengths in founding teams,
    0:26:22 Grove recognized that Moore and Noyce needed someone fundamentally different from themselves.
    0:26:28 They had vision. They had technical credibility. But what they lacked was operational discipline.
    0:26:34 Grove didn’t need to be another visionary inventor. Instead, he took the role of execution specialist who
    0:26:43 could transform brilliant ideas into reality. Why would Andy Grove, a PhD engineer with zero management
    0:26:48 training, suddenly transform himself into a business leader? The answer comes from Gordon Moore himself.
    0:26:53 When asked how they handled problems in Intel’s early days, Moore responded with characteristic
    0:26:58 understatement. You look at the problems that are current at the time, and you try to come up with
    0:27:04 some kind of creative solution for them. Or you turn them over to Andy, one or the other. Grove had
    0:27:09 effectively become Intel’s default problem solver. Any challenge that Moore or Noyce couldn’t handle,
    0:27:14 or perhaps didn’t want to handle, landed on Andy’s desk. Anyone who has worked in a startup’s early
    0:27:19 days will recognize this pattern. The persistent problem nobody else wants to tackle eventually
    0:27:24 find their permanent home with the person willing to solve them. Grove not only accepted this role,
    0:27:29 but he excelled at it. Having witnessed brilliant ideas and talent wasted at Fairchild due to poor
    0:27:34 execution, Grove was determined not to let that happen at Intel. So he did something remarkable. He
    0:27:39 systematically taught himself management and leadership, applying the same analytical rigor
    0:27:44 he used in chemical engineering and semiconductor physics. This self-transformation is a defining
    0:27:50 characteristic of Grove’s career. He was a learning machine. He simply refused to be limited by his
    0:27:56 formal training or pigeonholed into one specialty. In 1997, reflecting on his career, Andy observed,
    0:28:01 I went from chemistry to chemical engineering, to applied physics, to solid state device physics,
    0:28:08 to manufacturing, all in a 10 to 12 year period. His biographer notes that Grove could have continued.
    0:28:13 After manufacturing, Grove migrated to management, to leadership of Intel, to spokesperson for the
    0:28:18 technology industry, to expert on corporate governance, to arguably the most admired business
    0:28:24 leader of his era. Grove’s personal notebooks from Intel’s early days reveal an engineer methodically
    0:28:30 deconstructing the challenge of organizing people. Just two months after Intel’s founding,
    0:28:36 he was analyzing not just what progress had been made, but how progress itself should be reported.
    0:28:41 Three days later, he wrote something profound. The formal decision-making process is usually the
    0:28:46 only protective covering for a much simpler informal process. This was Grove peeling back the organizational
    0:28:52 onion, recognizing that beneath the surface of business decision lies a layer of unspoken
    0:28:58 assumptions. He later explained people kind of knew the answer, and they manage the arrangement of facts so
    0:29:05 that the formal process validates what they want to do anyway. By 1968, Grove was sketching structural
    0:29:11 solutions to the semiconductor industry’s most vexing problem, the handoff from design to manufacturing.
    0:29:17 In his notes, he outlined a quality control system with independent oversight, rapid feedback loops,
    0:29:24 maps and clear accountability. In his notes, he writes, quality slash reliability. The best person to worry
    0:29:29 about product quality first is the designer. As the product goes into manufacturing and the designer takes
    0:29:35 on a new product design, he loses interest. A third independent body should take over the quality control
    0:29:41 function from the engineers at that stage to ensure meaningful results and determinations and rapid feedback.
    0:29:47 He should be closely related to both the design and processing groups. To ensure external auditing,
    0:29:53 their books should be open to examination by general management. This approach was extraordinary. While
    0:29:59 other executives might have copied existing management processes, Grove recognized Intel was breaking new
    0:30:04 ground. He designed the organization from first principles, structuring it specifically to solve
    0:30:09 technical problems. Intel desperately needed these solutions as it fought for survival. The startup
    0:30:16 competed fiercely for its first contract is the seventh better on a project six established companies had already
    0:30:21 pursued. Grove later recalled, we worked day and night to design the chip and in parallel develop the
    0:30:29 manufacturing process. We worked as if our life depended on it, as in a way it did. What’s instructive here is
    0:30:34 Grove’s methodical approach to mastering new demands. While most people define themselves by their formal
    0:30:40 education or job title, Grove saw knowledge as something to be systematically acquired when needed. He was
    0:30:46 always learning and evolving from chemistry to engineering to management. When faced with the
    0:30:51 challenge outside of his expertise, he didn’t delegate it or avoid it. He simply dove in and taught himself
    0:30:58 what he needed to know. This plasticity of identity explains how a Hungarian refugee with a PhD in chemical
    0:31:04 engineering became one of history’s most influential business leaders. The real breakthrough for Intel
    0:31:14 came in October 1970 with the 1103, a 1024 bit dynamic random access memory chip or DRAM. This wasn’t an
    0:31:19 incremental improvement. It represented a quantum leap forward storing four times the data of Intel’s
    0:31:26 previous chips. The 1103 acquired what Grove called “big technological gambles” and the challenges it
    0:31:33 presented revealed just how difficult semiconductor manufacturing was. “We were a company composed of
    0:31:38 a handful of people with a new design and a fragile technology housed in a little rented building,”
    0:31:43 Grove recalled, “and we were trying to supply the seemingly insatiable appetite of large computer
    0:31:49 companies for memory chips.” What made the 1103 revolutionary and so difficult to produce
    0:31:55 was its fundamental design. Unlike previous static memory chips that use six transistors per bit of
    0:32:02 memory, the 1103 used just three transistors in a new cell design. This remarkable efficiency allowed
    0:32:07 more memory to fit on a single chip, but it came with a catch. The information had to be constantly
    0:32:13 refreshed or it would fade away. The manufacturing challenges were enormous. The process began with silicone
    0:32:19 wafers, thin mirror polished slices of pure silicone crystal about four inches in diameter.
    0:32:24 In Intel’s first facility, these wafers traveled through a complex multi-step process where the
    0:32:31 slightest contamination could ruin the entire batch. What’s notable here is the high stakes bet Intel was
    0:32:36 making. Rather than playing it safe with incremental improvements, they bet the company on a fundamentally
    0:32:41 new approach to memory design. This willingness to make bold technological leaps while simultaneously
    0:32:46 building rigorous systems to manage the resulting complexity would become their defining competitive
    0:32:52 advantage. Few companies can successfully balance revolutionary innovation with operational
    0:32:58 discipline. Most excel at one or the other and Grove was creating an organization that could do both.
    0:33:04 Grove became obsessive about quality control. Early semiconductor manufacturing suffered from poor
    0:33:11 yields. Sometimes only 10 to 20 percent of chips on a wafer actually worked. Improving this percentage became his fixation.
    0:33:17 Intel’s fabrication facility, Fab 1, represented cutting-edge manufacturing for its time. Workers wore bunny
    0:33:23 suits, head-to-toe coveralls, not to protect themselves, but to protect the wafers from contamination.
    0:33:29 The scale of precision required was staggering. While a human hair is approximately 100 microns thick,
    0:33:35 circuit features on these early chips measured just a few microns. The 1103’s design made it
    0:33:41 extraordinarily vulnerable. It stored memory as tiny electrical charges that would leak away unless
    0:33:47 refreshed every few milliseconds, making the chip unusually sensitive to microscopic defects.
    0:33:52 Each manufacturing step demanded perfect precision. The smallest deviation in temperature, exposure,
    0:33:58 or time, or chemical concentration could ruin an entire batch. This stress was crushing. Grove recalled
    0:34:03 having nightmares where vicious dogs were leaping out of the processing equipment attacking him.
    0:34:09 The 1103 had to succeed or Intel might not survive. Ironically, despite Grove’s obsession with quality,
    0:34:14 the 1103 still went to market with serious flaws. After thousands had shipped, it turned out that
    0:34:20 in Grove’s candid words, under certain adverse conditions, the thing just couldn’t remember. Years
    0:34:27 later, Grove joked that the “S” in “Andrew S. Grove” stood for “ship the unit.” Yet customers bought it anyway,
    0:34:32 because even with the flaws, the 1103 offered advantages previous technologies couldn’t match.
    0:34:37 More surprisingly, its difficulty actually helped its adoption. As Gordon Moore observed,
    0:34:43 core memory engineers didn’t embrace the 1103 until they realized that it too was a difficult
    0:34:49 technology and wouldn’t make their skills irrelevant. As production scaled, Grove instituted statistical
    0:34:55 process control, systematically tracking every manufacturing variable to identify exactly what
    0:35:00 affected yield. Every temperature, chemical bath, and timing sequence was measured and correlated with results.
    0:35:06 His production meetings became legendary for their intensity. Grove demanded fact-based analysis and
    0:35:12 rejected vague explanations for problems. This relentless focus gradually improved yields. When
    0:35:20 Fab 2 opened in 1971, it incorporated all the lessons from Fab 1. And by the time Fab 3 opened in 1973,
    0:35:28 Intel had largely mastered the once temperamental 1103. Grove didn’t just care about quality. He obsessed
    0:35:34 over it scientifically when others saw manufacturing variability as an annoying fact of life. He approached
    0:35:40 problems with cold, hard numbers, not gut feelings. And he built systems to measure what others were guessing or
    0:35:46 complaining about. The human mind isn’t really equipped to intuitively grasp all the variables in a modern
    0:35:53 manufacturing process. While obvious now, in the early 70s, this was revolutionary. Grove was inventing
    0:35:59 manufacturing analytics decades before the term even existed. The lesson here, the most valuable
    0:36:04 approaches often seem like common sense in retrospect, but require seeing what others don’t in the moment.
    0:36:12 Looking back at the 1103 achievement, Grove wrote with uncharacteristic immodesty, making the 1103
    0:36:17 concept work at the technology level, at the device level, and at the systems level, and successfully
    0:36:23 introducing it into high volume manufacturing required, if I may flirt with immodesty for a moment of fair
    0:36:29 measure of orchestrated brilliance. Everybody from technologists to designers to reliability experts had to
    0:36:35 work to the same schedule toward a different aspect of the same goal interfacing simultaneously at all
    0:36:42 levels. Four years earlier, in July 1969, Grove had cut out a description of a film director’s job from
    0:36:52 Time Magazine. Above it, he wrote “my job description.” The clipping read, “vision to aspire. Any director must master
    0:36:59 formidable complexity. He must be adept at sound and camera work, a soother of egos, a cajeweler of artistic
    0:37:06 talent. A great director has something more, the vision and force to make all these elements fuse into an
    0:37:12 aspired whole.” End quote. This is fascinating. So an engineer by training with zero formal business
    0:37:18 education was modeling his role on a film director. Grove’s biographer notes that he doubts anyone else at
    0:37:24 Intel or in the whole semiconductor industry cut out that clipping and inquired of themselves rhetorically
    0:37:29 whether or not this was their job description. With the 1103, Grove had established the template for
    0:37:35 how Intel would operate for decades, identifying bleeding edge technology that required manufacturing
    0:37:41 breakthroughs, relentlessly tackling production challenges, and scaling rapidly while competitors
    0:37:47 struggled to catch up. The complexity of manufacturing the 1103 made it nearly impossible for competitors to reverse
    0:37:54 engineer, giving Intel a multi-year advantage in the market. In effect, complicated manufacturing
    0:37:59 became their core skill. There’s a bit of irony to this today. The experience crystallized Grove’s
    0:38:05 management philosophy. By 1971, he was coordinating dozens of specialists hired because of their expertise
    0:38:12 in a sliver of technology, each contributing one crucial piece to the larger puzzle. As technical
    0:38:17 teams developed in the next generation of products, Grove created systems to ensure seamless handoffs between
    0:38:23 design and manufacturing, historically the most vulnerable point in semiconductor development.
    0:38:28 Grove saw leadership like directing a film, not commanding an army. When he cut out that film
    0:38:33 director’s job description in 1969 and wrote “my job description” above it, he revealed something
    0:38:39 profound about his approach. While most technical leaders tried desperately to maintain expertise across
    0:38:46 every domain, a losing battle as technology advances, Grove took a different approach. The magic was in how he
    0:38:51 redefined the leader’s role, not the supreme technical expert, but as collecting talent and creating
    0:38:56 harmony. Most leaders fail because they can’t let go of being the smartest person in the room.
    0:39:02 And Grove succeeded by understanding a simple truth. As complexity increases, coordination becomes more
    0:39:09 valuable than individual control. The best leaders don’t need to know everything. They do need to know who knows what
    0:39:16 that and how to get them playing from the same sheet of music. While the 1103 DRAM established Intel as a
    0:39:24 serious memory player, an even more revolutionary product appeared in 1971, the 4004, the world’s first
    0:39:32 commercial microprocessor. Originally developed as a custom chip for Japanese calculator manufacturer, the 4004 was
    0:39:38 essentially a computer on a chip containing 2300 transistors and performing functions that previously required
    0:39:42 entire cabinets of electronics. The microprocessor’s importance
    0:39:48 wasn’t immediately apparent, even to Intel’s leaders. The company initially viewed it as
    0:39:54 merely a sideline to the core memory business. As one Intel engineer recalled, in the early days, the microprocessor was a
    0:40:01 solution looking for a problem. Andy himself would later admit that Intel stumbled into the microprocessor business.
    0:40:06 That statement is insane, given what we know today, but this is back in 1971.
    0:40:17 Nevertheless, Intel followed the 4004 with the 8008 in 1972 and the 8080 in 1974, increasingly powerful processors
    0:40:23 that found their way into a widening range of applications. The 8080 became particularly significant because it was selected
    0:40:30 selected as the brain of the Altair 8800, which was the first commercially successful personal computer
    0:40:38 released in 1975. What’s instructive here is how even brilliant leaders can miss the significance of their
    0:40:44 own innovations. Intel’s core team, including Andy Grove, initially failed to recognize that they had created the
    0:40:51 product that would eventually transform not just their company, but the entire world. This blind spot reveals an
    0:40:58 important truth about innovation. Revolutionary products often emerge not from grand strategic visions,
    0:41:04 but from solving specific customer problems. The microprocessor wasn’t born from a plan to change
    0:41:09 computing or change the history of the world. It came from meeting the needs of a Japanese calculator company.
    0:41:15 The greatest innovations frequently appear first as modest solutions to narrow challenges before their broader
    0:41:18 potential becomes clear.
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    0:42:40 Intel’s growth during the 1970s was remarkable. The company’s 1977 annual report described it as a
    0:42:48 difficult year, yet sales and profits both increased by 25%. Employment had risen to 8,100 people and
    0:42:53 the R&D investment was climbing steadily. A technological revolution was unfolding through
    0:42:59 what the report called the continuous integration between circuit requirements, basic science and
    0:43:05 process technology. The average number of transistors in the components Intel introduced in 1977 exceeded
    0:43:12 the total number of vacuum tubes in INEC, the most complex electronic equipment built just 30 years
    0:43:19 earlier. Yet, not all Intel ventures succeeded. In 1977, the company admitted defeat in one notable
    0:43:25 experiment. We abandoned the digital watch and watch module business, including the closing of our Microma
    0:43:31 subsidiary, the transfer of the most important people to other divisions of Intel and the disposal of Microma’s
    0:43:39 assets. Intel tried to create the Apple Watch before 1980. That’s insane. Intel had entered the watch
    0:43:45 business in 1972 convinced it had a unique combination of capabilities, the CMOS chip, the liquid crystal
    0:43:51 display, and assembly facilities. But as Grove later explained, we got out when we found out it was a
    0:43:56 consumer marketing game, something we knew nothing about. The cost of consumer advertising particularly
    0:44:02 shocked Intel’s engineering-minded leadership. The company ran exactly one television commercial
    0:44:10 for the Microma watches at a cost of $600,000. Just one ad, Grove lamented, and poof, it was gone. Moore
    0:44:16 continued wearing his Microma watch for years, calling it his $15 million watch and joking, “If anyone
    0:44:21 comes to me with an idea for a consumer product, all I have to do is look at my watch to get the answer.”
    0:44:27 The Microma experience taught Intel two important lessons though. First, when closing the subsidiary,
    0:44:32 Intel found positions elsewhere in the company for almost all Microma employees. This approach,
    0:44:37 protecting the people even when ventures failed, created tremendous loyalty within the company.
    0:44:43 A breed of employees who would bleed blue, Intel’s logo color was developing. Crucial for the upcoming
    0:44:49 challenges of the 1980s. The second lesson, however, may have been learned a bit too well. Intel concluded
    0:44:55 the consumer products simply weren’t in the company’s genetic code. As Grove reflected in 2005,
    0:45:00 all of our subsequent consumer products efforts were half-hearted. Despite eventually becoming one of
    0:45:06 the most recognized brands in the world, Intel never sold directly to consumers, perhaps leaving
    0:45:13 significant value unrealized. Intel’s handling of the Microma failure reveals an elegant paradox of
    0:45:18 corporate culture. They killed the watch business without hesitation, but protected nearly every employee
    0:45:23 who worked on it. This wasn’t kindness, it was rational. When companies punish the people behind failed
    0:45:28 ventures, they create risk aversion that slowly suffocates innovation. But there’s a fascinating
    0:45:35 flip side to how we process failure. The $15 million watch disaster so traumatized Intel’s leadership that they
    0:45:42 permanently tagged consumer products as “not in our DNA”. For decades afterwards, Intel reflexively
    0:45:48 avoided direct consumer sales. This is kind of how experience works. We don’t just learn the lessons,
    0:45:54 we sometimes overlearn them. The same painful memories that can make us smarter in one domain can blind us
    0:46:00 in another. Smart companies know when to kill projects, wise ones know which lessons from those failures to
    0:46:08 keep and which to forget. Beneath Intel’s impressive growth numbers of the late 1970s lay a company culture
    0:46:14 in metamorphosis forged largely through Grove’s relentless, sometimes merciless, self-criticism. Reading
    0:46:20 Grove’s internal notes from this period, one would never guess 1978 was a triumphant year for Intel.
    0:46:25 Instead of celebration, we find Andy complaining to Gordon Moore that with our operating managers
    0:46:30 being busy with operating, planning does not get sufficient emphasis. As Intel approached a half
    0:46:36 billion dollars of revenue, Grove wrestled with a fundamental question: what was preventing Intel from
    0:46:44 reaching a billion? His answer scribbled in July 1978 was a strikingly simple oomph and administration.
    0:46:51 When Intel was small, he reflected an individual or small group could provide the oomph, the initiative
    0:46:58 and the enthusiasm that the company needed to do its work. By 1978, however, the oomph had concentrated
    0:47:04 in top managers who are now consumed by day-to-day responsibilities. What troubled Andy about Intel’s
    0:47:08 middle management was their aversion to conflict was their aversion to conflict. The middle is populated
    0:47:15 by passive introverts, he wrote, honest, competent, decent, well-meaning, work-oriented people who just
    0:47:23 can’t tolerate controversy. The result in Andy’s characteristically blunt phrasing, “shit rises uphill.”
    0:47:29 This frustrated Andy because, as he noted, it is impossible to change people’s personalities and very
    0:47:36 difficult to modify behavior tied to fundamental personality traits. Intel somehow needed to upgrade
    0:47:42 the oomph quotient of its middle managers. By August 1978, Andy’s frustration had reached
    0:47:48 a boiling point. Manufacturing was undisciplined. Marketing was abominable. He told more, “I think
    0:47:54 I was totally wrong a month ago in perceiving improvements in our great organized campaign. If
    0:48:00 anything, things are getting worse. If I truly had the guts, I think what we should do is put on a total
    0:48:08 hiring freeze until we get our nose above the shit level.” This is the Andy that Intel employees knew,
    0:48:14 demanding, uncompromising, and brutally honest. His criticisms weren’t reserved for others. They extended
    0:48:20 to himself and the entire organization. Yet, for all of his harshness, he understood the potential
    0:48:26 downside of the critical culture he was creating. In an October 1978 memo to the top executives, he wrote,
    0:48:32 “To a large extent, I think we owe our success not to luck, but to a culture of problem orientation,
    0:48:38 of being critical of ourselves and thereby urging ourselves and our organizations to perform better
    0:48:43 and better. This virtue, however, can be carried to such an extreme that it can bring about our own
    0:48:49 paralysis through self-doubt.” Then, in what must have surprised anyone familiar with his typically
    0:48:54 unsparing critiques, Andy added, “So let’s try to keep our perspective and permit ourselves to enjoy the
    0:49:00 fact that we have never yet in our history had a problem we didn’t solve.” What’s remarkable here
    0:49:05 is Groves’ understanding of the paradox of high-performance cultures. The very critical
    0:49:11 orientation that drives excellence can eventually become toxic if not balanced with perspective and
    0:49:17 celebration. Most leaders swing between extremes, either creating complacent cultures that celebrate
    0:49:23 mediocrity or harsh environments that burn people out. Groves is attempting something far more difficult,
    0:49:29 building a culture that could simultaneously maintain relentless standards while providing enough
    0:49:35 psychological safety for people to take risks and speak truth. This balance, being brutally honest about
    0:49:40 problems while remaining fundamentally optimistic about solving them, would become their defining
    0:49:45 cultural characteristic. What we’re witnessing in these private notes is the birth of what would
    0:49:51 later be recognized as the intel culture. Groves’ distinctive organizational ethers that would
    0:49:56 eventually be studied at business schools around the world. This culture had several defining elements,
    0:50:03 all bearing his unmistakable imprint. At its core was what became known as constructive confrontation.
    0:50:08 As Groves recalled during intel’s early pressure cooker days, we often spent as much time bickering
    0:50:14 with one another as working on the problems. We developed a style of ferociously arguing with one
    0:50:20 another while remaining friends. We call this constructive confrontation. This direct problem-solving
    0:50:26 confrontation approach was coupled with a relentless focus on data and facts rather than opinions or
    0:50:32 emotions. Andy frequently complained about the tendency in management circles to substitute opinions for
    0:50:39 facts and emotion for analysis, a trend that still continues to this day. Intel also developed a unique
    0:50:45 approach to organizational management. In June 1978, Andy wrote, “The time has come for us to establish honest to
    0:50:50 goodness corporate staff. This would be made up of our top flight operating executives who would serve for
    0:50:55 a limited period prior to returning to line management. Their role would be to deal with
    0:51:01 longer-term issues, especially for those that cross divisional boundaries.” This focus on organizational
    0:51:07 effectiveness stemmed from Andy’s recognition that Intel’s rapid growth created increasingly complex
    0:51:12 problems. He noticed that every attempted solution seemed to generate new challenges. Getting into new
    0:51:19 businesses is a complicated phenomenon where directors can change fairly rapidly as one feels one way.
    0:51:24 Realigning emphasis means shuffling people about and having people stagger under the same load that their
    0:51:29 predecessor, who had done the job for years, would have been able to handle with ease. Culture wasn’t
    0:51:35 something that just happened at Intel, at least not under Andy Grove. While many companies let culture evolve
    0:51:42 organically, Grove engineered Intel’s with the same precision he brought to chip manufacturing. He wasn’t
    0:51:48 designing pleasant office vibes. He was building a corporate immune system. The brilliance here is in how
    0:51:55 he institutionalized seemingly contradictory forces, the brutal honesty alongside deep loyalty, rigid processes
    0:52:02 alongside flexibility. Constructive confrontation sounds like an oxymoron until you see it solve problems that
    0:52:09 politeness can’t touch. Grove treated culture as infrastructure, and to him it was just as critical as the factory
    0:52:14 floor. Years later, when Intel faced its greatest crisis, this deliberately designed culture became the
    0:52:20 company’s salvation. The greatest competitive advantage isn’t a product, but rather an organization that can
    0:52:26 adapt faster than the world changes around it. These cultural elements were crystallizing into a coherent
    0:52:34 whole, and the results were undeniable. By 1979, Intel sales and profits soared to 663 million and 77.8
    0:52:43 million, representing growth of 65.8% in both categories. The workforce expanded by 40% to more than 14,000
    0:52:53 employees. Intel had debuted on the Fortune 500 in 1978 at position 486, and by 1979 had climbed to 368.
    0:53:00 Even more impressively, Intel’s market capitalization more than doubled from 638 million at the end of
    0:53:07 1978 to 1.4 billion just a year later. In many ways, 1979 represented the validation of the culture
    0:53:12 Andy had been painstakingly building. Prices for their products remained high throughout the year because
    0:53:18 demand far outstripped forecasts. The semiconductor industry was constrained by supply shortages. As one
    0:53:24 observer noted, “If you’re going to have a problem, that is one which many business people would select.”
    0:53:30 But as the 1970s drew to a close, Andy’s greatest test as a leader still lay ahead. The extraordinary
    0:53:36 success of 1979 masked underlying vulnerabilities. As Andy himself had written years earlier, “In the
    0:53:40 meantime, while you’re fighting the forces of entropy in your company, the rest of the world is
    0:53:46 hardly standing still.” He had identified the competitive threat in an annual report. This
    0:53:51 year, or in some cases last year, competition arrived and very logically went after the most visible
    0:53:57 segment. The large accounts who now have alternatives have started to move towards those alternatives with
    0:54:03 a resulting loss of standing, if not business for us. In retrospect, that seems to have been unavoidable,
    0:54:09 “but we were too skimpy, too busy, and too smug with our success to have anticipated
    0:54:15 this trend.” The culture Andy had forged through his relentless self-criticism and exacting standards would
    0:54:21 soon face its most severe challenge. The question wasn’t whether Intel’s culture could drive growth in good
    0:54:26 times. It had proven that conclusively. The real question was whether the same culture could navigate
    0:54:32 Intel through a genuine crisis when rigorous analysis and candid self-assessment would have
    0:54:38 to transform into decisive action at a pivotal moment for the American semiconductor industry.
    0:54:45 It’s worth pausing here for a second. Success often sears the seeds of its own destruction. Grove
    0:54:50 understood something profound. The moment you feel safest is often when you’re most vulnerable. While
    0:54:56 competitors celebrated victories, he was already hunting for threats lurking in Intel’s success.
    0:55:01 For Grove, this wasn’t theoretical pessimism. It was personal trauma. Going back to his childhood,
    0:55:07 as a Hungarian Jew who survived both Nazi occupation and communist rule before fleeing to America,
    0:55:13 Grove had witnessed how quickly stability can disintegrate into chaos. The genius of his approach
    0:55:20 was maintaining intense paranoia precisely when it seemed least necessary. Most companies grow complacent
    0:55:26 with success. Their vigilance fades exactly when competitors are motivated to overtake them. While
    0:55:31 Intel’s 1979 results had shareholders celebrating, Grove was already writing about fighting the forces
    0:55:38 the forces of entropy. This wasn’t anxiety, it was clarity. And it’s something all the greats have,
    0:55:44 even when they’re winning. This perpetual vigilance would prove crucial to Intel’s salvation when
    0:55:51 Japanese manufacturers later attacked the company’s core business. By the mid-1980s, Intel faced an
    0:55:55 existential threat and existential threat that would not just test the company’s business model, but the
    0:56:01 very leadership philosophy Grove had been cultivating for nearly two decades. The semiconductor industry was
    0:56:06 experiencing what he would later term a 10x force, a fundamental shift so powerful it could destroy
    0:56:12 established companies that failed to adapt. In his influential book, Only the Paranoid Survive,
    0:56:19 Andy explained that a crucial distinction between ordinary changes and 10x changes. Ordinary 1x changes were the
    0:56:25 constant background noise of business, the incremental shifts in customer preferences, competitor tactics,
    0:56:30 or technologies that companies routinely handle. These might alter your trajectory, but they don’t
    0:56:37 fundamentally transform your industry. A 10x change, by contrast, was a force of an entirely different
    0:56:42 magnitude. Andy described it as the difference between a light breeze and a full-blown typhoon,
    0:56:48 or between waves and a tsunami. When a 10x force hits, the fundamentals of your business are altered
    0:56:55 so dramatically that continuing with your existing strategy becomes impossible. For Intel in the late 1980s,
    0:57:01 this 10x force came in the form of Japanese memory chip manufacturers. The quality level of the Japanese
    0:57:07 memories, especially DRAMs, were becoming consistently and substantially better than Intel’s. This meant
    0:57:11 not only were they selling merchandise cheaper than Intel could, but they were selling better
    0:57:17 merchandise as well, a very threatening position for the company to be in. This was a fundamental shift
    0:57:23 that rendered Intel’s position in the memory market untenable. Japanese firms had mastered a manufacturing
    0:57:28 approach that Intel simply couldn’t match. Memory chips had become commodities, where competitive
    0:57:36 advantages came from manufacturing scale and efficiency rather than design innovation. The area where Intel had
    0:57:42 dominated through the 1970s. Most businesses are designed to weather ordinary changes. The 1x forces
    0:57:47 that Grove described as the constant background noise. But strategic inflection points aren’t headwinds,
    0:57:53 they’re tsunamis that destroy companies that mistake them for normal challenges. The true genius of
    0:57:58 leadership lies in recognizing when incremental improvements become futile and when you must abandon the
    0:58:04 very business that made you successful. The golden goose, if you will, even while it’s still generating enormous profits.
    0:58:11 By 1985, Intel was wandering through what Andy described as a valley of death. The company was
    0:58:18 posting significant losses, employee morale was plummeting, and the board grew restless. Cost-counting
    0:58:23 measures, facility closures, and layoffs, the standard corporate responses to financial pressure failed to
    0:58:30 address the fundamental market reality. Intel simply couldn’t compete in the memory business anymore. Andy
    0:58:35 Grove possessed a rare ability to acknowledge the brutal truce before disaster became inevitable. He’d
    0:58:40 been doing it his whole life. But even for him, the realization didn’t come easily because Intel’s
    0:58:47 identity was inextricably tied to memory chips. The company had been founded on it. Gordon Moore and
    0:58:52 Robert Noyce’s vision of semiconductor memory replacing magnetic core memory had sparked the whole industry in
    0:58:58 a new direction. And Intel engineers took enormous pride in their memory innovations. As Andy would
    0:59:03 later observe, people who have no emotional stake in a decision can see what needs to be done sooner.
    0:59:09 Two deeply held beliefs within Intel complicated matters even further. First, many believed that
    0:59:14 memories were the company’s technology drivers, the products on which new manufacturing processes were
    0:59:20 perfected before being applied to microprocessors. Second, there was a widespread conviction that Intel
    0:59:25 needed to offer customers a complete product line including both memories and processors. If they
    0:59:31 offered only one, customers would supposedly leave them for someone who could offer both. The turning
    0:59:36 point came during a conversation between Andy and Gordon Moore that has since become legendary in
    0:59:42 business circles. It’s the one I mentioned in the introduction. Looking at the terrible memory chip numbers for the
    0:59:48 latest quarter, Andy said to Moore, “If we got kicked out and the board brought in a new CEO, what do you
    0:59:55 think he would do?” Moore answered without hesitation. He would get us out of memories. Andy then posed a pivotal
    1:00:01 question. Why shouldn’t you and I just walk out the door, come back in, and do it ourselves? This mental
    1:00:06 exercise of viewing the company as an outsider would become the cornerstone of what Andy would later term
    1:00:11 a strategic inflection point, a moment when the fundamentals of the business are about to change.
    1:00:15 You can tell you’re going through a strategic inflection point if the way you traditionally have
    1:00:20 done business no longer delivers the kind of results that we used to get. Well, the new way of doing
    1:00:25 business involves so much uncertainty that you can’t easily bring yourself to embrace it. What’s
    1:00:32 interesting here is the technique Grove used to overcome organizational inertia by mentally stepping
    1:00:37 outside, walking out the door. Grove and Moore could temporarily escape the emotional attachment to past
    1:00:42 decisions and see the blind spot that was holding them where they were. They could see their situation
    1:00:48 with new clarity. This ability to create psychological distance from your own commitments is extraordinarily
    1:00:54 difficult but crucial during strategic inflection points. Most leaders remain imprisoned by their previous
    1:01:00 decisions, unable to abandon what they built even as evidence mounts that it’s no longer viable. Grove had
    1:01:06 developed a technique to break the psychological lock, a method for seeing his own creation with the
    1:01:12 objectivity of an outsider. One of Andy’s most insightful observations involved the transformation of the
    1:01:17 computer industry’s structure. He described how the industry had evolved from a vertically integrated
    1:01:23 model to a horizontally segmented one in 1980s sparked by memory chips becoming commodities and the rise of the
    1:01:30 microprocessor. In the mainframe era dominated by IBM, companies operated as fully integrated vertical stacks. IBM
    1:01:35 designed everything from chips to hardware to the operating system to the applications. As Andy explained,
    1:01:40 a company competing in this industry as one vertical proprietary block against all other computer
    1:01:45 companies’ vertical proprietary blocks. The rise of the microprocessor, which Intel had pioneered,
    1:01:51 fundamentally changed the structure. The industry fragmented into horizontal layers. Chip manufacturers like
    1:01:57 Intel, computer assemblers like Dell and Compaq, operating system providers like Microsoft and application
    1:02:02 developers. Andy wrote, “In this new model, no one company had its own stack. A consumer could pick
    1:02:07 a chip from the horizontal chip bar, pick a computer manufacturer from the computer bar, choose an operating
    1:02:14 system out of the operating system bar, grab one of several ready to use applications off the shelf at a retail
    1:02:20 store or a computer superstar and take the collection of these things home.” This shift destroyed IBM’s dominance.
    1:02:26 Despite its vast resources and market power, or possibly because of them, IBM couldn’t adapt to this
    1:02:31 horizontal world. They remained wedded to the vertical integration model. Even as the economics of
    1:02:37 specialized horizontal layers made that approach uncompetitive, what made this transition especially
    1:02:42 treacherous was that it didn’t happen overnight. It evolved gradually with the vertical model continuing to work
    1:02:48 reasonably well, even as the horizontal model gained momentum. By the time the inflection point was obvious to
    1:02:54 everyone, IBM had already lost most of its market leadership position. Andy observed, “IBM was
    1:02:59 composed of a group of people who had won time and time again, decade after decade, in the battle among
    1:03:05 vertical computer players. The managers who ran IBM grew up in this world. Their long reign of success deeply
    1:03:11 reinforced the thought processes and instincts that led to winning in the vertical industry. So when the industry
    1:03:17 changed, they attempted to use the same type of thinking that had worked so well in the past. IBM,
    1:03:22 as a vertical player, was trying to sell portions of its stack to direct competitors, an inherently
    1:03:28 conflicted position. Grove had learned that Intel needed to focus on microprocessors and basically nothing
    1:03:36 else. As he would write, “It’s harder to be the best of class in several fields than just one.” What’s interesting here is that
    1:03:41 Grove didn’t just see competitors. He saw the competitive landscape transforming. While IBM’s
    1:03:45 executives were still trying to outmaneuver other vertically integrated companies, Grove recognized
    1:03:51 the industry was fundamentally restructuring into horizontal layers where specialists in each layer
    1:03:56 would dominate. The greatest business failures often come from not playing the game poorly, but from
    1:04:03 continuing to excel at games that no longer matter. One of Andy’s most penetrating insights concerned
    1:04:07 the role of middle managers during strategic inflection points. He believed they often had
    1:04:14 the clearest view of impending changes and called them Cassandras, after the Greek priestess who foretold
    1:04:19 the fall of Troy. He wrote, “The Cassandras in your organization are a consistently helpful element in
    1:04:25 recognizing strategic inflection points.” As you might remember, Cassandra was the priestess who foretold the fall
    1:04:30 of Troy. Likewise, there are people who are quick to recognize impending change and cry out an early
    1:04:34 warning. Although they can come from anywhere in the company, Cassandras are usually in the middle
    1:04:40 management. Often they work in the sales organization. They usually know more about the upcoming change than
    1:04:46 the senior management because they spend so much time outdoors where the winds of the real world blow in their
    1:04:54 faces. In other words, their genes have not been selected to achieve perfection in an old way. Because they are on the
    1:04:59 front lines of the company, Cassandras often feel more vulnerable to danger than do senior managers
    1:05:04 in their more or less bolstered corporate headquarters. Bad news has much more of an immediate
    1:05:09 impact on them personally. Lost sales affect a salesperson’s commission. Technology that never
    1:05:15 makes it into the marketplace disrupts an engineer’s career. Therefore, they take the warning signs more
    1:05:20 seriously. “If you’re a senior manager in a company,” Andy explained, “strategic inflection
    1:05:25 points arrive in disguised form.” Top executives are often the last to recognize the fundamental
    1:05:31 shifts because they’re insulated from market realities and emotionally invested in the status quo. Middle
    1:05:37 managers, by contrast, operate at the intersection of the company and the outside world. They usually have a
    1:05:44 better sense than the senior management of what’s happening with both sides. Andy noted, “their position gives them an
    1:05:50 unfiltered view of the customer shifts, competitive threats, and technological changes.” Andy illustrated
    1:05:56 this with a powerful analogy, comparing strategic inflection points to fire drills in a theater. When
    1:05:59 the alarm sounds, audience members in the middle of the theater have the clearest picture of what’s
    1:06:05 happening. They can see both the stage, where the fire may have started, and the exits. Audience members
    1:06:10 in the very front like senior executives may be too close to the stage to see the big picture. While
    1:06:16 those in the back, frontline employees may be too far from the action. At Intel, Grove created forms where
    1:06:22 middle managers’ voices could be heard and respected regardless of hierarchy. Grove discovered something
    1:06:28 counterintuitive about organizational awareness. Middle managers often see the existential threats before
    1:06:34 their executives do. These Cassandras operate where strategy meets reality. They’re close enough to the
    1:06:40 customers to feel market shifts, but connected enough to headquarters to understand the implications. By
    1:06:45 deliberately elevating these voices rather than filtering them through the hierarchy, Grove built an early
    1:06:52 warning system that detected industry shifts while competitors were still celebrating calm seas. The
    1:06:58 decision to exit the memory business wasn’t implemented overnight. The transition took nearly three
    1:07:02 years, and throughout this challenging period, Andy deployed the leadership style he had honed for
    1:07:08 decades, demanding, data-driven, and brutally honest. First, he insisted on clarity about market realities. He
    1:07:13 gathered comprehensive data on Japanese companies’ memory pricing, quality, and manufacturing
    1:07:18 capabilities, forcing Intel’s management to confront an uncomfortable truth. The gap wasn’t closing,
    1:07:23 it was widening. Second, he addressed emotional resistance head-on. In a pivotal meeting with
    1:07:29 senior managers, Andy posed a provocative question. If memories are so strategic, why do we lose money on
    1:07:35 every one we sell? This forced Intel’s leadership to separate old strategic methodology with new economic
    1:07:42 reality. And third, he tackled practical transition challenges with meticulous attention to detail. What would
    1:07:47 happen to Intel’s memory design teams? How would customers react? What would the microprocessor-focused
    1:07:52 Intel look like? Andy demanded detailed planning for each dimension so employees could visualize the
    1:07:57 new Intel. Thanks to the company’s history of protecting employees during previous shutdowns,
    1:08:02 there was less fear of institutional change. When Intel finally announced to customers it would
    1:08:08 no longer be manufacturing DRAMs, the response was largely a big yawn. Many had already anticipated
    1:08:13 Intel’s retreat and secured alternative suppliers. Some even expressed relief saying it sure took you a long
    1:08:20 time. Grove systematically dismantled both practical and psychological barriers to change. He recognized
    1:08:25 that strategic pivots fail not just because of poor planning, but because of emotional attachments to
    1:08:31 past decisions and fear of an uncertain future. By keeping the focus on market realities, strategic
    1:08:36 contradictions, and implementation details simultaneously, Grove created a comprehensive
    1:08:43 approach to organizational transformation that remains a template for executing painful but necessary pivots
    1:08:49 today. By 1987, Intel had largely completed the transition away from memories. The company was
    1:08:55 profitable again, but its 80386 microprocessor was gaining traction in the personal computer market.
    1:09:00 But Andy, now Intel’s president, wasn’t content with mere survival. He sensed an opportunity to
    1:09:06 fundamentally transform Intel’s position in the market. Rather than remaining an anonymous component supplier,
    1:09:12 Intel could become a recognized brand that signified quality and innovation to end consumers and thereby
    1:09:20 protect itself from future inflection points. In 1989, Intel began shifting its advertising aimed at consumers
    1:09:26 instead of manufacturers. This approach culminated in the famous Intel Inside campaign,
    1:09:33 fundamentally altering the power dynamics in the computer industry. PC manufacturers couldn’t easily
    1:09:38 switch to a competing processor without risking consumer backlash. Consumers would be looking
    1:09:46 specifically for an Intel-powered PC. This move was pure genius. What emerged from this crucible was not
    1:09:51 just a safe company, but a coherent leadership philosophy that Andy would articulate. Business success contains
    1:09:56 the seeds of its own destruction. The more successful you are, the more people want a chunk of your
    1:10:00 business and then another chunk until there’s nothing left. I believe that the prime responsibility of
    1:10:06 a manager is to guard constantly against other people’s attacks and to put this guardian attitude
    1:10:12 in the people under his management. Grove’s paranoia wasn’t the anxious hand-wringing that paralyzes
    1:10:19 action. It was strategic mindset that fueled adaptation. A corporation is a living organism. It has to
    1:10:24 continue to shed its skin, he insisted, recognizing that yesterday’s winning formula becomes tomorrow’s
    1:10:30 liability. His masterstroke, the final masterstroke, the Intel Inside campaign, reveals a deeper insight
    1:10:36 about competitive advantage. By turning an invisible chip into a household brand, Grove didn’t just
    1:10:43 differentiate Intel, he fundamentally changed who Intel’s customer was. Though PC manufacturers wrote the
    1:10:49 checks, consumers now demanded Intel processors specifically, creating a protective moat around the
    1:10:54 business that no competitor that no competitor could easily cross. This is the paradox at the heart of
    1:11:01 lasting success. The more deliberately you prepare for your own obsolescence, the less likely you are to
    1:11:13 become obsolete. All right, let’s get into a few afterthoughts and reflections and then talk about some lessons learned.
    1:11:21 So one of the things that stood out to me here was just how profound his childhood was on his experiences and
    1:11:27 how he learned that survival demands the same skills, constant vigilance, brutal self-assessment,
    1:11:32 the courage to abandon what’s once defined you. I mean, he lived this stuff as a child. That is a terrible,
    1:11:38 terrible childhood. Another thing that really stands out to me here is a bit of the red queen effect going on where,
    1:11:44 you know, you have to run harder and harder to maintain your place in industries that are changing rapidly.
    1:11:49 And I think, you know, the memory, you can use this as a great example, the memory chips, you know,
    1:11:52 you have to get better and better every year. You can’t just rest. You can’t take a break. You have to sprint.
    1:11:57 You’re constantly sprinting because your competitors are sprinting. And if you stand still, if you don’t get
    1:12:02 better, you’re getting worse. And in highly, highly competitive industries, that’s what’s happening.
    1:12:08 The decision to kill the golden goose, killing the memory chips and, and doing the strategic pivot that
    1:12:14 I can’t understate how hard that is. There’s so much organizational inertia tied into that and making
    1:12:21 that pivot. And, you know, it all worked out well for Intel, uh, at the time. And it’s so hard to make
    1:12:28 those decisions. Um, there’s so many people giving you conflicting information. I like Andy talks a lot
    1:12:32 about blind spots without using the term blind spots. He’s always trying to get information
    1:12:38 either from people through analysis or through analytics or just seeing the world through their
    1:12:42 eyes. I liked his idea of Cassandra’s being the middle managers. I think there’s a lot of truth
    1:12:48 to that. Having worked in a large organization before people who touch the outside, they touch the territory.
    1:12:53 And because they touch the territory, uh, they often have more accurate information about the
    1:12:57 territory than management who relies on maps. It’s a bit of map territory.
    1:13:03 I like his idea of thought experiments, you know, sort of stepping outside, firing yourself as CEO,
    1:13:07 uh, and saying, what would we do different if the board fired us and then hired us again?
    1:13:11 You know, these are the type of things I talk about in the great mental models, volume one,
    1:13:16 it’s a great thought experiment for you. It’s also something that we can do. You are the CEO of you.
    1:13:23 Uh, and you have thousands of employees at your disposal today in the form of GPUs and AI.
    1:13:28 And I think the question is, you know, one question that I constantly ask myself is if I fired myself
    1:13:34 today, uh, what would a new CEO or myself taking over stop doing? What am I doing today that I need
    1:13:41 to stop and what could I start doing? And I think those questions are super important. As I was researching
    1:13:48 the whole transition from memory to semiconductors with Intel, you know, the parallels between what Google’s
    1:13:53 going through right now just stuck out so much. They have this golden goose in traditional search
    1:14:00 that’s making a ton of money. And I wonder at what point you face a bit of innovators dilemma where
    1:14:04 you’re not dealing with reality. The people who grew up in Google right now grew up in search. They grew
    1:14:09 up in an era where they won over and over again. Sounds a lot like IBM in this story. They kept winning
    1:14:15 over and over again and they’re dominant in their field until they’re not. And when you grow up in an
    1:14:21 industry and you win over and over and over again in that industry, and then you have to change, you
    1:14:27 reach one of those inflection points, those 10 X points that Grove talk about, uh, that becomes the
    1:14:33 hardest point to change your mind about things. The very thing that success has driven for you. Now you have
    1:14:38 to abandon and go all in, you have to burn the boats and, you know, close some doors, but you have to
    1:14:44 close doors on the most profitable part of your business. And one final reflection is sort of, I
    1:14:49 couldn’t fit this in the story, but I think it’s quite profound. Andy’s philosophy about how he connected
    1:14:56 organizational adaptation to personal responsibility. He said, and I quote, “The sad news is nobody owes you
    1:15:03 a career.” Your career is literally your business. You own it as a sole proprietor. You have one employee
    1:15:09 yourself. You were in competition with millions of similar businesses, millions of other employees
    1:15:14 all over the world. You need to accept ownership of your career, your skills, and the timing of your moves.
    1:15:21 That is such a high agency way to think about things. And this is what I tell my kids, like you are running
    1:15:26 a company. You, and I mentioned this a little bit earlier, you have a thousand GPUs. You have a thousand
    1:15:31 employees at your disposal. And, you know, if you’re not telling them to do something or learning or getting
    1:15:36 better, then they’re just sitting there waiting for you to tell them what to do. But you have one employee.
    1:15:42 You are in competition with millions of other people, millions of people just like you, and nobody owes you
    1:15:50 anything. And I think, you know, Andy’s childhood really informs that view. Okay. Let’s get to some of
    1:15:58 our lessons here before we close this out. So lesson number one, bounce, but don’t break. Grove faced
    1:16:03 devastating childhood circumstances. A father sent to labor camp, hiding his Jewish identity and
    1:16:09 permanently losing his hearing from scarlet fever. Yet he transformed this difficulty into advantage,
    1:16:14 developing extraordinary attention to subtle signals and the ability to make decisions with
    1:16:20 incomplete information. When you can’t change your circumstances, you can change how you respond to
    1:16:27 them. This is the lesson we also learned from Viktor Frankl. The last human freedom is the ability to
    1:16:33 choose how you respond to a situation. Lesson number two, don’t care what they think. When
    1:16:40 Grove’s semiconductor research contradicted established theory, experts wanted to burn him at the stake.
    1:16:47 He built a culture where only data mattered, not opinions. Truth seeking requires the courage to
    1:16:53 be disliked. So many people these days optimize their life around being liked. And that means that you
    1:17:01 will never face the hard reality of inconvenient data. Three, face reality before it faces you.
    1:17:08 Grove’s willingness to confront brutal facts became his defining leadership trait. When faced with Japanese
    1:17:13 memory manufacturers overtaking Intel, he asked more of the pivotal question. If we got kicked out and the
    1:17:18 board brought in new CEO, what would he do? This thought experiment created distance from his own
    1:17:24 decisions and allowed him to abandon the very business that built Intel. He was effectively enabled to see
    1:17:29 his blind spots. Emotional attachment to past decisions is such a silent killer.
    1:17:36 Four, success sows the seeds of its own destruction. Even during Intel’s record profits of 1979,
    1:17:42 Grove was hunting for the existential threats. Having survived Nazi occupation, he knew stability could
    1:17:48 vanish overnight. Paranoia is the most valuable precisely when it seems least necessary. And there’s
    1:17:53 a parallel here that just comes to mind as I’m reading this. But if you listen to interviews with Tom
    1:17:58 Brady or Patrick Mahomes or Michael Jordan, there’s these key moments, there’s these games where they
    1:18:05 win. I remember Brady won one game is like 24 to seven or something. And in the interview after he’s
    1:18:09 like, we should have won that 45 to seven. He’s not celebrating the victories. Like, you know, we got
    1:18:15 lucky. We, we, we should have been better. I should have been better. And I think that, you know, that is
    1:18:22 something that people have, but you can also adapt. Five, Grove was a talent collector. He recognized
    1:18:28 leadership as an orchestration rather than individual brilliance. As Intel grew, he focused on creating
    1:18:34 systems where collective intelligence could flourish, particularly by amplifying middle managers’ voices.
    1:18:40 He developed constructive confrontation where ideas could be ferociously debated. If you’re running an
    1:18:44 organization or your senior level in an organization, your ceiling is determined by the
    1:18:51 talent you attract, not the talent you possess. That is true of organizations. Six, he was a learning
    1:18:58 machine. Grove transformed from a chemical engineer to semiconductor physicist to management guru in just
    1:19:03 a decade. He approached each new domain with the same methodical rigor. In a changing world,
    1:19:10 the ability to learn quickly compounds like interest. Seven, he had a taste for salt water.
    1:19:16 While working as a waiter and learning English, Grove still graduated first in his class. Excellence
    1:19:22 happens when nobody’s watching. The gap between good and great is filled with voluntary hardships that
    1:19:28 others refuse to endure. Eight, it takes what it takes. Grove’s work ethic was relentless and
    1:19:35 unconstrained by conventional boundaries. At Fairchild, he authored 30 scientific articles and filed patents
    1:19:41 while simultaneously teaching at Berkeley. When manufacturing problems threatened Intel’s existence,
    1:19:46 Grove created statistical systems tracking every production variable, well before these type of
    1:19:53 analytics were normal or standard or even acceptable. Sometimes progress requires both working smarter
    1:20:01 and harder. Nine, positioning is leverage. Grove never merely reacted to opportunities. He methodically
    1:20:06 positioned himself at the intersection of his talents and emerging trends. Before joining Fairchild,
    1:20:11 for example, he researched 22 different companies, dividing them into categories based on his interest
    1:20:16 versus qualifications. When Moore and Noyce mentioned they were starting Intel, he immediately recognized the
    1:20:23 opportunity as their operational compliment. He mastered his circumstances rather than being mastered by them.
    1:20:29 Number 10, ride the wave. When Grove identified the semiconductor revolution, he committed fully
    1:20:37 rather than hedging his bets. Even when Intel’s 1103 memory chip had serious flaws under certain adverse
    1:20:42 conditions, the thing just couldn’t remember. He still persevered because he knew they were riding an
    1:20:49 unstoppable technological wave. When you get the trend right, you can overcome countless tactical failures.
    1:20:54 What a story with Andy Grove. There’s so many lessons that you can take away here. I’m going to listen
    1:21:05 to this one over and over again. Thanks for listening and learning with us. And be sure to sign up for my
    1:21:12 free weekly newsletter at fs.blog/newsletter. I hope you enjoyed my reflections at the end of this episode.
    1:21:18 That’s normally reserved for members. But with this outlier series, I wanted to make them available to everyone.
    1:21:24 The Farnam Street website is where you can get more info on our membership program, which includes access
    1:21:31 to episode transcripts, reflections for all episodes, my updated repository featuring highlights from the
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    1:21:43 If you like what we’re doing here, leaving a rating and review would mean the world. And if you really like us,
    1:21:56 sharing with a friend is the best way to grow this special series until next time.

    Most people protect their identity. Andy Grove would rewrite his, again and again. He started as a refugee, became a chemist, turned himself into an engineer, then a manager, and finally the CEO who built Intel into a global powerhouse. He didn’t cling to credentials or titles. When a challenge came up, he didn’t delegate, he learned. This episode explores the radical adaptability that made Grove different. While his peers obsessed over innovation, he focused on something far more enduring: the systems, structures, and people needed to scale that innovation. Grove understood that as complexity rises, technical brilliance fades and coordination becomes king. 

    You’ll learn how he redefined leadership, why he saw management as a creative act, and what most founders still get wrong about building great companies. If you’re serious about getting better—at work, at thinking, at leading—this is the episode you’ll be glad you didn’t miss. 

    This episode is for informational purposes only and most of the research came from The Life and Times of an American by Richard S. Tedlow, Only the Paranoid Survive by Andy Grove, and Tom Wolfe’s profile of Robert Noyce available here.

    Check out highlights from these books in our repository, and find key lessons from Grove here — ⁠⁠https://fs.blog/knowledge-project-podcast/outliers-andy-grove/⁠

    (05:02 ) PART 1: Hungarian Beginnings
    (06:48) German Occupation
    (09:27) Soviet Liberation
    (11:01) End of the War
    (12:35) Leaving Hungary

    (14:10) PART 2: In America
    (16:50) Origin of Silicon Valley
    (20:04) Fairchild

    (22:54) PART 3: Building Intel
    (25:15) Becoming a Manager
    (29:39) Intel’s Make-or-Break Moment
    (31:35) Quality Control Obsession
    (34:41) Orchestrating Brilliance
    (37:49) The Microprocessor Revolution and Intel’s Growth
    (40:32) Intel’s Growth and the Microma Lesson
    (30:51) The Grove Influence
    (47:00) The Birth of Intel Culture
    (49:42) ​​The Fruits of Transformation
    (50:43) The Test Ahead

    (53:07) PART 4: Inflection Points
    (55:23) The Valley of Death
    (58:26) The IBM Lesson
    (01:01:18) CASSANDRA’s: The Value of Middle Management
    (01:04:09) Executing a Painful Pivot

    (01:08:25) Reflections, afterthoughts, and lessons

    Thanks to our sponsors for supporting this episode:

    MOMENTOUS: Head to ⁠⁠livemomentous.com⁠⁠ and use code KNOWLEDGEPROJECT for 35% off your first subscription. 

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    Upgrade — If you want to hear my thoughts and reflections at the end of all episodes, join our membership: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠ and get your own private feed.

    Newsletter — The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at ⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter

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  • #228 Elad Gil: How to Spot a Billion-Dollar Startup Before the Rest of the World

    AI transcript
    0:00:06 You’re one of the most successful investors that a lot of people have probably never heard of.
    0:00:09 AI is the only market where the more I learn, the less I know.
    0:00:11 And in every other market, the more I learn, the more I know.
    0:00:13 The more I’m able to predict things, and I can’t predict anything anymore.
    0:00:15 What scares you about the future?
    0:00:18 That’s a big question.
    0:00:22 I think in a couple of years, we’ll start thinking about it as we’re selling units of cognition.
    0:00:27 AI is dramatically underhyped because most enterprises have not done anything in it.
    0:00:31 And that’s where all the money is, all the changes, all the impact is, all the jobs, everything.
    0:00:36 The people that I know who have been very successful or driven solely by money end up miserable.
    0:00:38 Because they have money, and then what?
    0:00:41 It’s just, what do you do? What fulfills you?
    0:00:44 What are the most common self-inflicted wounds that kill companies?
    0:00:46 I think that…
    0:00:49 What do you think is the next wave?
    0:00:53 I think it’s going to be an ongoing wave of…
    0:00:55 And that’s coming, right? And that hasn’t even hit yet.
    0:01:17 Welcome to the Knowledge Project Podcast.
    0:01:20 I’m your host, Shane Parrish.
    0:01:26 In a world where knowledge is powered, this podcast is your toolkit for mastering the best of what other people have already figured out.
    0:01:34 My guest today is Elad Gill, who has had a front row seat to some of the most important technology companies started in the past two decades.
    0:01:40 He invested early in Stripe, Airbnb, Notion, Coinbase, Andrel, and so many others.
    0:01:45 He’s also authored an incredible book on scaling startups called High Growth Handbook.
    0:01:49 In my opinion, he’s one of the most underrated figures in Silicon Valley.
    0:01:58 In this episode, we explore how he thinks about startups, talent, decision-making, AI, and most importantly, the future of all of these things.
    0:02:08 We talk about the importance of clusters, why most companies die from self-inflicted wounds, and what it really means to scale a company, and importantly, what it means to scale yourself.
    0:02:11 It’s time to listen and learn.
    0:02:22 You’ve had a front row seat at some of the biggest, I would say, surprises in a way, like Stripe, Coinbase, Airbnb, when they were just ideas.
    0:02:25 What was the moment where you recognized these were going to be outliers?
    0:02:28 So all three of those are very different examples, to your point.
    0:02:31 I invested in Airbnb when it was probably around eight people.
    0:02:33 Stripe was probably around the same size.
    0:02:37 And then Coinbase only got involved with much later, when it was a billion-dollar-plus company.
    0:02:40 And even then, I thought there was enormous upside on it, which luckily has turned out to be the case.
    0:02:46 I think really, the way I think about investing in general is that there’s two dimensions that really matter.
    0:02:52 The first dimension is what people call product-market fit, or is there a strong demand for whatever it is you’re building?
    0:02:55 And then, secondarily, I look at the team.
    0:02:58 And I think most early-stage people flip it.
    0:03:00 They look at the team first, and how good is a founder?
    0:03:02 And obviously, I’ve started two companies myself.
    0:03:06 I think the founder side is incredibly important, and the talent side is incredibly important.
    0:03:13 But I’ve seen amazing people get crushed by terrible markets, and I’ve seen reasonably mediocre teams do extremely well in what are very good markets.
    0:03:16 And so, in general, I first ask, do I think there’s a real need here?
    0:03:17 How is it differentiated?
    0:03:18 What’s different about it?
    0:03:20 And then I dig into, like, are these people exceptional?
    0:03:22 How will they grow over time?
    0:03:24 What are some of the characteristics of how they do things?
    0:03:35 Let’s go into people’s second, but how do you determine product-market fit in a world where a lot of people are buying product-market fit almost through brute force or giving away product?
    0:03:40 Yeah, there’s a lot of signals you can look at, and I think it’s kind of varied by type of business.
    0:03:42 Is it a consumer business versus enterprise versus whatever?
    0:03:46 For things like consumer businesses, you’re just looking at organic growth rate and retention.
    0:03:47 Are people using it a lot?
    0:03:48 Are they living in it every day?
    0:03:49 That sort of thing.
    0:03:51 That would be early Facebook, right?
    0:03:52 The usage metrics were insane.
    0:03:58 And then for certain B2B products, it could be rate of growth and adoption.
    0:04:02 It could be metrics people call, like, NDR and a dollar retention or other things like that.
    0:04:09 Honestly, if you’re investing before the thing even exists in the market, then you have to really dig into how much do I believe there’s a need here, right?
    0:04:10 Or how much is there a customer need?
    0:04:16 So I invested in Rippling and other related companies before there’s anything built, right?
    0:04:18 Under the premise that this is something that a lot of people want.
    0:04:21 And Notion is the same thing.
    0:04:24 Actually, Notion was a rare example where I did it as a person investment.
    0:04:26 I met Ivan, who’s a CEO over there.
    0:04:33 And everything about him was so aesthetically cohesive in a very odd way.
    0:04:38 The way he dressed, his hairstyle, the color scheme of his clothes, the color scheme of the app and the pitch deck.
    0:04:41 The only other person I’ve seen that with is Jack Dorsey, who started Square and Twitter.
    0:04:46 And there was this odd, almost pure embodiment of aesthetic.
    0:04:50 And I just thought it was so intriguing and so cool.
    0:04:53 And I’ve only seen two people like that before that I had to invest.
    0:04:56 And it was just this immense consistency.
    0:04:57 It was very weird.
    0:05:01 And you see that, like, you go to his house and it’s like, it feels like him.
    0:05:03 You know, everything, the company feels like him.
    0:05:04 Everything feels like him.
    0:05:05 It’s fascinating.
    0:05:06 He’s done an amazing job with it.
    0:05:09 It almost stands out to the point where you think it’s manufactured.
    0:05:11 I think it’s genuine.
    0:05:12 I think it’s almost the opposite.
    0:05:14 You feel the purity of it.
    0:05:16 You’re like, oh my gosh, there’s a unique aesthetic element here.
    0:05:23 And that probably reflects some unique way of viewing the world or thinking about products or thinking about people and their usage.
    0:05:25 Let’s come back to outliers.
    0:05:27 So product market fit, outliers.
    0:05:30 How do you identify an outlier team?
    0:05:34 Yeah, you know, I think it really depends on the discipline or the area.
    0:05:37 For tech, I think it’s very different than if you’re looking in other areas.
    0:05:43 For an early tech team, I almost use like this Apple framework of Jobs, Wozniak, and Cook, right?
    0:05:46 Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak started Apple together.
    0:05:51 Steve Jobs was known as somebody who really was great at setting the vision and direction, but also was just an amazing salesperson.
    0:05:54 And selling means selling employees to join you.
    0:05:55 It means raising money.
    0:05:57 It means selling your first customers.
    0:05:58 It’s negotiating your supply chain.
    0:06:01 Those are all aspects of sales in some sense or negotiation.
    0:06:06 And so you need at least one person who can do that unless you’re just doing a consumer product that you threw out there, right?
    0:06:08 And it just grows and then people join you because it’s growing.
    0:06:13 Then you need somebody who can build stuff and build it in a uniquely good way.
    0:06:15 And that was Wozniak, right?
    0:06:21 The way that he was able to hack things together, drop chips from the original design of Apple devices, etc., was just considered legendary.
    0:06:25 And then as the thing starts working, you eventually need somebody like Tim Cook who can help scale the company.
    0:06:30 And so you could argue that was Sheryl Sandberg in the early days of Facebook who eventually came on as a hire and helped scale it.
    0:06:35 And Zuck was really the sort of mixture of the product visionary, the salesperson, etc.
    0:06:42 Why did all these people concentrate in San Francisco almost or California?
    0:06:47 How did that happen where you had Apple, you have Stripe, you have Coinbase, you have Facebook?
    0:06:50 Walk me through that.
    0:06:54 We were talking a little bit about this before we started recording about clusters of people.
    0:07:07 Yeah, it’s really fascinating because if you look at almost every major movement throughout history, and that could be a literary movement, it could be an artistic movement, it could be a finance movement, economic schools of thought.
    0:07:19 It’s almost always a group of young people aggregating in a specific city who all somehow find each other and all start collaborating and working together towards some common set of goals that reflect that.
    0:07:26 So there was, you know, a famous literary school in the early 20th century in London.
    0:07:35 That was, I think it was like Virginia Woolf and John Maynard Keyes and E.M. Forster and all these people all kind of aggregated and became friends and started supporting each other.
    0:07:37 Or you look at the Italian Renaissance.
    0:07:44 Similarly, in Florence, you had this aggregation of all these great talents, all in a timely manner coincident with each other.
    0:07:51 Or Favism or Italian Futurism or Impressionism, Paris in the, you know, late 1800s.
    0:07:52 And so that repeatedly happens for everything.
    0:07:55 And similarly, that’s happened for tech.
    0:07:58 And even within tech, we’ve had these successive waves, right?
    0:08:03 Really, the founding story of Silicon Valley goes back to the defense industry and then the semiconductor industry, right?
    0:08:06 Defense was HP and other companies starting off in the 40s.
    0:08:13 You then ended up with Shockley Semiconductor and Fairchild Semiconductor in the early semiconductor companies, 50s, 60s.
    0:08:24 And that kind of established Silicon Valley as a hub and as things moved from microprocessors to computers to software, people just kept stuff propagating across those waves from within the industry.
    0:08:29 So one big thing is just you have a geographic cluster and you have that for every single industry.
    0:08:32 You look at wineries and they’re clustered in a handful of places because of geography.
    0:08:35 You look at the energy industry, it’s in a handful of cities.
    0:08:38 Finance is in New York and Hong Kong and London.
    0:08:48 So every single industry has clusters, Hollywood and Bollywood and, you know, Lagos and Nigeria for the main hubs for, you know, movie making in different regions.
    0:08:51 So in Silicon Valley, obviously, we created this tech cluster.
    0:09:00 But then even within the tech cluster, there are these small pockets of people that I mentioned earlier that somehow find each other and self-aggregate.
    0:09:03 It’s funny, I was talking to Patrick Hollis and the founder of Stripe about this.
    0:09:12 And he mentioned that when he was 18 and he showed up in Silicon Valley as a nobody, right, completely unknown, 18-year-old, nobody’s heard of him.
    0:09:19 And during that six-month period that he was first here, he said he met all these people who are now giants of Silicon Valley.
    0:09:25 And it was this weird self-aggregation of people kind of finding and meeting each other and talking about what each other’s working on.
    0:09:28 Somehow this keeps happening.
    0:09:29 And this happens through time.
    0:09:33 And then right now in Silicon Valley, it’s happening in very specific areas.
    0:09:33 It’s happening.
    0:09:36 All the AI researchers all knew each other from before.
    0:09:38 They were in the common set of labs.
    0:09:39 They had common lineages.
    0:09:43 All the best AI founders, which is different from the researchers, have their own cluster.
    0:09:45 And all the SaaS people have their own cluster.
    0:09:51 And so it’s this really interesting almost self-aggregation effect of talent finding each other and then helping each other over time.
    0:09:54 And it’s just fascinating how that works.
    0:09:57 How do you think about that in an era of remote work?
    0:10:04 Remote work is generally not great for innovation unless you’re truly in an online collaborative environment.
    0:10:11 And the funny thing is that when people talk about tech, they would always talk about how tech is the first thing that could go remote because you can write code from anywhere and you can contribute from anywhere.
    0:10:13 But that’s true of every industry, right?
    0:10:14 You look at Hollywood.
    0:10:19 You could make a movie from anywhere, like you film it off-site anyhow or on-site in different places.
    0:10:20 You could write a script from anywhere.
    0:10:22 You could edit the musical score from anywhere.
    0:10:23 You could edit the film from anywhere.
    0:10:25 You could write the script from anywhere.
    0:10:27 So why is everything clustered in Hollywood?
    0:10:29 Nobody would ever tell you, oh, don’t go to Hollywood.
    0:10:32 Go to Boise and, you know, you could work in the movie industry.
    0:10:33 Or finance.
    0:10:37 You could raise money from anywhere, come up with your trading strategy from anywhere.
    0:10:39 Everything in finance is in a handful of locations.
    0:10:41 And so tech is the same way.
    0:10:43 And it’s because there’s that aggregation of people.
    0:10:51 There’s the people helping each other, sharing ideas, trading things informally, learning new distribution methods that kind of spread, learning new AI techniques that spread.
    0:10:54 There’s money around it that funds it specifically so it’s easier to raise money.
    0:10:58 There’s people who’ve already done it before who can help you scale once the thing is working.
    0:11:04 That’s the common complaint I hear in Europe for Google Start companies there is we can’t find the executives who know how to scale what we’re doing.
    0:11:05 Oh, interesting.
    0:11:09 And so I do think there are these other sort of ancillary things that people talk about.
    0:11:13 The service providers, the lawyers who know how to set up startups, right?
    0:11:16 Or the accountants who know how to do tax and accounting for startups.
    0:11:18 Those things sound trivial, but they cluster.
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    0:14:19 A big part of why Combinator is sort of like helping everybody with that stuff.
    0:14:23 Yeah, why Combinator is a great example of taking out-of-network people, at least that
    0:14:26 was the initial part of the premise, not the full premise, right?
    0:14:29 Like people like Sam Altman or others who were very early in YC came out of Stanford, which
    0:14:30 was part of the main hub.
    0:14:34 But a lot of other people came out of universities that just weren’t on the radar for people who
    0:14:36 tended to back things in Silicon Valley.
    0:14:39 And so, you know, the early Reddit founders went to East Coast universities.
    0:14:45 The Airbnb founders, two of them were out of RISD, the Rhode Island Institute of Design.
    0:14:53 And so, YC early on was very good at taking very talented people who weren’t part of the core networks in Silicon Valley and basically
    0:14:55 inserting them into those networks and helping them succeed.
    0:14:58 Why do you think they’re still relevant today?
    0:15:00 Why is YC still relevant today?
    0:15:03 I think they’ve just done a great job of building sort of brand and longevity.
    0:15:06 Gary, who’s taken over, is fantastic.
    0:15:07 And so I think he brings a lot of that.
    0:15:13 Let’s go back to first principles and really implement YC the way that, you know, we think
    0:15:14 it can really succeed for the future.
    0:15:18 And I think they do a really good job of two things.
    0:15:21 One is plugging people in, as mentioned, particularly your SaaS company, you want to have a bunch of
    0:15:23 customers instantly, your batch mates will help you with that.
    0:15:32 But also, it teaches people to ship fast and to kind of force finding customers.
    0:15:37 And so because you’re in this batch structure and you’re meeting with your batch every week
    0:15:40 and you hear what everybody else is doing, you feel peer pressure to do it.
    0:15:44 But also, it kind of shapes how you think about the world, what’s important, what to work on.
    0:15:47 And so I think it’s almost like a brainwashing program, right?
    0:15:49 Beyond everything else they do, which is great.
    0:15:52 It sets a timeline that you have to hit and it brainwashes you to think a certain way.
    0:15:58 One of the things that I see, which I think is maybe relevant, maybe not, you tell me, is
    0:16:04 I like how it brings people together who are probably misfits or outliers in their own environment
    0:16:08 and then puts them in an environment where ambition is the norm.
    0:16:10 It’s not the outlier to have ambition.
    0:16:12 Where shipping is the norm.
    0:16:15 It’s not the outlier to ship.
    0:16:21 And it sort of normalizes these things that maybe cause success or lead to an increased
    0:16:22 likelihood of success.
    0:16:26 It’s actually a very interesting question of what proportion of founders these days are
    0:16:29 actually people who normally wouldn’t fit in, right?
    0:16:34 So the sort of founder archetype of before it was rebellious people or people who could never
    0:16:35 work for anybody else or whatever.
    0:16:40 And then as tech has grown dramatically in market cap and influence and everything else,
    0:16:45 it’s inevitable that the type of people who want to come out here and do things has shifted.
    0:16:48 And then the perception of risk in startups has dropped a lot.
    0:16:51 And so I actually think the founder mix has shifted quite a bit.
    0:16:54 Like there isn’t as much quirkiness in tech.
    0:16:55 And during COVID, it was awful.
    0:16:56 It was very unquirky.
    0:17:00 Because at that point, you know, there was a zero interest rate environment.
    0:17:02 Money was abundant everywhere.
    0:17:07 And the nature of people who joined or who showed up shifted.
    0:17:11 And so I think we had two or three years where the average founder just wasn’t that great,
    0:17:12 right?
    0:17:13 On a relative basis to history.
    0:17:18 And then as the AI wave was happening, you know, I started getting involved with a lot of
    0:17:21 the generative AI companies maybe three-ish years ago, maybe three and a half years ago.
    0:17:25 So before Chachapiti came out and before MidJourney and all these things kind of took off.
    0:17:30 And the people starting those companies were uniquely good.
    0:17:32 And you felt the shift.
    0:17:38 You went from these kind of plain vanilla, me too, almost LARPers, to these incredibly driven,
    0:17:45 mission-oriented, hyper-smart, very technical people who wanted to do something really big.
    0:17:47 And you felt it.
    0:17:48 It was a dramatic shift.
    0:17:52 And if you look at it, there’s basically been three or four waves of talent coming through
    0:17:53 the AI ecosystem.
    0:17:55 And I should say gen AI because we had this whole wave.
    0:17:59 We had 10 years, 15 years of other types of deep learning, right?
    0:18:03 We had recursive neural networks and convolutional neural networks and GANs and all these things.
    0:18:08 And that technology basis fundamentally has different capabilities than this new wave.
    0:18:14 And so there’s this paper in 2017 that came out of Google called the Transformer Architecture.
    0:18:19 And that is the thing that spawned this whole wave of AI right now that we’re experiencing.
    0:18:20 And so it’s a new technology basis.
    0:18:24 We took a step function and we’re doing new stuff that you couldn’t do before on the old
    0:18:24 technologies.
    0:18:29 That whole wave led to this really interesting set of companies.
    0:18:33 And the first people in that wave were the researchers because they were closest to it.
    0:18:38 And they could see firsthand what was actually happening in the technology, in the market, how they
    0:18:39 were using it.
    0:18:44 You know, the engineers at OpenAI used to go into the weights to query stuff, which then eventually
    0:18:46 actually in some form is ChatGPT, right?
    0:18:47 They were doing it before it existed.
    0:18:51 There was also MENA at Google, which was basically an internal form of almost like ChatGPT.
    0:18:55 So they kind of saw the future and they went to try and substantiate it.
    0:18:59 And you could argue that the same thing happened in the internet wave in the 90s, right?
    0:19:03 All the people working at the National Supercomputer Centers like Marc Andreessen and others saw the
    0:19:04 future before anyone else.
    0:19:06 They’re using email before anyone else.
    0:19:08 They were browsing the internet before anyone else.
    0:19:12 They were using FTP and file downloads and sharing music files before anyone else.
    0:19:15 And so they knew what was coming, right?
    0:19:17 They had a glimpse into the future.
    0:19:20 It’s the old saying, the future is here is just not equally distributed.
    0:19:22 For AI, we had the same thing.
    0:19:25 We had these researchers who could tangibly feel what was coming.
    0:19:28 And so the first wave of AI companies was researchers.
    0:19:30 The second wave was infrastructure people.
    0:19:31 We’re not closest.
    0:19:34 And in this current wave, we’re now at the application people, the people who are building
    0:19:36 applications on top of the core technology.
    0:19:38 What do you think is the next wave?
    0:19:43 I think it’s going to be an ongoing wave of kind of everything, right?
    0:19:46 There’s still a lot to build, but I think we’ll see more and more application level companies.
    0:19:51 We’ll see fewer what are known as foundation model companies, the people building the open
    0:19:55 AIs or Anthropics or some of the Google core technologies or X.AI.
    0:19:57 There will be specialized versions of that, right?
    0:19:58 That’s all the language stuff, right?
    0:20:04 It understands what you say and it can interpret it and it can generate text for you and do all these
    0:20:04 things, right?
    0:20:07 That’s all these LLMs, large language models.
    0:20:10 There’s going to be the same thing done for physics and material science.
    0:20:11 We’ve already seen it happening in biology, right?
    0:20:13 So at that layer, there’s a bunch of stuff.
    0:20:14 There’s the infrastructure.
    0:20:16 What is the equivalent of cloud services?
    0:20:18 And then there’s the apps on top.
    0:20:20 And then in the apps, you have B2B and then you have consumer.
    0:20:23 And so I think we’re going to see a lot of innovation across the stack.
    0:20:25 But I think this next wave is a mix of B2B and consumer.
    0:20:31 And then I think the wave after that is very large enterprise adoption.
    0:20:38 And so I think AI is dramatically underhyped because most enterprises have not done anything
    0:20:38 in it.
    0:20:42 And that’s where all the money is, all the changes, all the impact is, all the jobs, everything,
    0:20:43 right?
    0:20:45 It’s a big 80-20 rule of the economy.
    0:20:48 And that’s coming, right?
    0:20:49 And that hasn’t even hit yet.
    0:20:56 Are there any historical parallels to anything that you can think of that map to artificial
    0:20:57 intelligence or AGI?
    0:21:06 I think the thing that people misunderstand about artificial intelligence is that, you know,
    0:21:09 people are kind of viewing it as what you’re selling as like a cool tool to help you with
    0:21:10 productivity or whatever it is.
    0:21:14 I think in a couple of years, we’ll start thinking about it as we’re selling units of cognition,
    0:21:16 right?
    0:21:20 We’re selling bits of person time or person equivalent to do stuff for us.
    0:21:27 I’m going to effectively hire 20 bot programmers to write code for me to build an app, or I’m going
    0:21:34 to hire an AI accountant, and I’m going to basically rent time off of this unit of cognition.
    0:21:39 On the digital side, it really is this shift from you’re selling tools to you’re selling
    0:21:42 effectively white-collar work.
    0:21:47 On the robotic side, you’ll probably have some form of like robot minutes or something.
    0:21:52 You’ll probably end up with some either human form robots or other things that will be doing
    0:21:54 different forms of work on your behalf.
    0:21:57 And, you know, potentially you buy these things or maybe you rent them, you know, it’ll be
    0:21:59 interesting to see what business models emerge around it.
    0:22:01 What scares you about the future?
    0:22:03 That’s a big question.
    0:22:04 Along what dimension?
    0:22:07 Wherever you want to take it.
    0:22:08 Like what scares you about AI?
    0:22:10 Do you have any fears about AI?
    0:22:14 I think that I have opposing fears.
    0:22:20 In the short run, I worry that there’s the real chance to kind of strangle the golden goose,
    0:22:20 right?
    0:22:28 I do think AI and this wave of AI is the single biggest potential motivator for versions of global
    0:22:31 advancements in health and education and all the things that really matter fundamentally.
    0:22:37 And there’s some really great papers from the 80s that basically show that one-on-one tutoring,
    0:22:42 for example, will increase performance by one or two standard deviations, right?
    0:22:44 You get dramatically better if you have a one-on-one tutor for something.
    0:22:49 And if you actually look through history and you look at how Alexander the Great was tutored
    0:22:54 by Aristotle and all these things, there’s a lot of kind of prior examples of people actively
    0:22:56 doing that on purpose for their kids if they can afford it.
    0:23:00 This AI revolution is a great example of something that could basically provide that for every child
    0:23:04 around the world as long as they have access to any device, which is most people at this
    0:23:04 point, right?
    0:23:05 Globally.
    0:23:10 So from an education system perspective, a healthcare system perspective, it’s a massive
    0:23:10 change.
    0:23:13 So in the short run, I’m really worried that people are going to constrain it and strangle
    0:23:17 it and prevent it from happening because I think it’s really important for humanity.
    0:23:23 In the long run, there’s always these questions of, you know, at what point do you actually consider
    0:23:24 something sentient versus not?
    0:23:25 Is it a new life form?
    0:23:26 Like, is there species competition?
    0:23:29 You know, there’s those sorts of questions, right?
    0:23:30 In the very long run.
    0:23:32 Without robots, you could say, well, you just unplug the data center.
    0:23:33 Who cares?
    0:23:34 You know, it doesn’t matter.
    0:23:38 If you do have robots and other things, then it gets a little bit harder, maybe.
    0:23:43 At what point do you think we’re going to, AI is going to start solving problems that we
    0:23:48 can’t solve in the sense of a lot of what it’s doing today is organizing logic on a human
    0:23:49 level equivalent.
    0:23:50 It’s not being like…
    0:23:52 No, it’s already surpassed us on many things, right?
    0:23:57 Like, just even look at how people play Go now and the patterns they learned off of AI,
    0:23:58 which can beat any person at Go.
    0:24:03 I mean, gaming is a really good example of that, where every wave of gaming advancements where
    0:24:07 you pitted AI against people, people said, well, fine, they beat people at checkers, but
    0:24:09 they’ll never beat them at chess.
    0:24:11 And then they beat them at chess and say, well, fine, chess, but they’ll never beat them at
    0:24:12 Go.
    0:24:13 They beat them at Go.
    0:24:16 And they’re like, well, what about complex games where there’s bluffing?
    0:24:17 They’ll never beat them at poker.
    0:24:18 And then Noam Brown had his poker paper.
    0:24:20 And they say, well, okay, poker.
    0:24:22 Well, they’ll never beat them at things like diplomacy, where you’re manipulating people
    0:24:23 against each other.
    0:24:27 And then, you know, a Facebook team solved diplomacy, right?
    0:24:31 And so gaming is a really great example where you have superhuman performance against every
    0:24:31 game now.
    0:24:35 And you see that in other aspects of things as well.
    0:24:40 I guess where my mind was going is in terms of mathematical problems.
    0:24:43 I mean, we’ve solved a couple maybe that we haven’t been able to solve, but we haven’t
    0:24:51 made real leaps or biology or health or longevity, like where, you know, here’s the, not the solution
    0:24:56 maybe to Alzheimer’s because that’s like a big leap, but maybe it’s like, you’re not looking
    0:24:57 in the right area.
    0:24:59 You need to research in this area more.
    0:25:01 Like when is that sort of advancement coming?
    0:25:02 Yeah, I think it’s a really good question.
    0:25:06 I mean, AI is already having some interesting advancements in biology, right?
    0:25:12 The Nobel Prize this past year in biology went to Demas and a few other people who built
    0:25:16 predictive models using AI about how proteins will fold, right?
    0:25:20 And so I think it’s already being recognized as something that’s impacting the field at the
    0:25:21 point where it gets a Nobel.
    0:25:26 The hard part with certain aspects of biology and protein folding is a good counter example.
    0:25:27 We actually have very good data.
    0:25:31 You had tens of thousands or maybe hundreds of thousands of crystal structures.
    0:25:34 You had solved structures for all these proteins and you could use that to train the model.
    0:25:35 Right.
    0:25:41 If you look at it, about half or more than half of all biology research in top journals is
    0:25:42 not reproducible.
    0:25:44 So you have a big data problem.
    0:25:47 Half the data is false.
    0:25:48 It’s incorrect.
    0:25:49 Right.
    0:25:53 And this is actually something that Amgen published a couple of years ago where they showed this
    0:25:56 because they weren’t able to reproduce cancer findings in their lab because they’re trying
    0:25:57 to develop a drug.
    0:26:00 And they’re like, wait a minute, this thing we thought could turn into a drug isn’t real.
    0:26:01 Right.
    0:26:06 And so there’s this really big replication issue in certain sciences.
    0:26:08 Isn’t that part of the advantage for AI then?
    0:26:10 Like, I’m thinking out loud here.
    0:26:10 Sure.
    0:26:15 Like, if I uploaded all of the Alzheimer’s papers to AI.
    0:26:16 Yeah.
    0:26:18 And it would be like, these ones aren’t replicatable.
    0:26:20 There’s mathematical errors here.
    0:26:21 This looks like fraud.
    0:26:24 But all of these things have generated future research.
    0:26:28 So what you’re doing is you’re being like, oh, you’ve spent billions of dollars on this.
    0:26:33 That’s likely, not like statistically, it’s probably not going to yield results.
    0:26:35 You should focus your attention here.
    0:26:37 And that would have a huge impact on…
    0:26:37 Yeah.
    0:26:40 I think there’s almost like three different things that are mixed in here.
    0:26:42 One is just fraud.
    0:26:44 You know, you fudged an image, you’re reusing it, whatever.
    0:26:46 I think AI is wonderful for that.
    0:26:51 And I actually think, and I’m happy to, if anybody who’s listening to this wants to get
    0:26:55 sponsored, or maybe we should do a competition or something to basically build like fraud detectors
    0:26:56 using AI or plagiarism detectors.
    0:26:58 You could do it for liberal arts as well as sciences, right?
    0:26:58 Yeah.
    0:27:00 And I bet you’d uncover a ton of stuff.
    0:27:05 Separate from that, there’s people publishing things that are just bad.
    0:27:08 And the question is, is it bad because they ignored other data?
    0:27:10 Did they throw out data points?
    0:27:13 How would you know as an AI system, right?
    0:27:15 That somebody threw out half their data to publish a paper.
    0:27:21 And so there’s other issues around how science is done right now.
    0:27:25 Or you just rush it and you have the wrong controls, but it still gets published because
    0:27:26 it’s a hot field.
    0:27:26 That happens a lot.
    0:27:31 If you look during COVID, like there were so many papers that in hindsight were awful papers,
    0:27:34 but they got rushed out because of COVID.
    0:27:37 And unless somebody goes back and actually redoes the experiment and then publishes it,
    0:27:40 they read it and it didn’t work, which nobody does because nobody’s going to publish it for
    0:27:40 you.
    0:27:42 How do you know that it’s not reproducible?
    0:27:45 And so that’s part of the challenge in biology.
    0:27:48 And so the biology problem isn’t, can an AI model do better?
    0:27:49 I’m sure it could.
    0:27:54 The biology problem is how do you create the data set that actually is clean enough and has
    0:27:56 high enough fidelity that you can train a model that then goes and cleans everything
    0:27:57 else up, right?
    0:27:58 And it’s doable.
    0:27:59 Like all these things are very doable.
    0:28:00 You just have to go and do it.
    0:28:01 And it’s a lot of work.
    0:28:04 If you look at things like math and physics and other things like that, people are just
    0:28:06 starting to train models against that now.
    0:28:09 So I do think we’ll, in the coming years, see some really interesting breakthroughs there.
    0:28:15 Do you think that’ll be rapid or do you, like how will those breakthroughs happen?
    0:28:17 Yeah, it’s kind of the same thing.
    0:28:22 You kind of need to figure out what’s the data set you’re using, what kind of model and
    0:28:25 model architecture you’re using, because different architectures seem to work better or worse for
    0:28:26 certain types of problems as well.
    0:28:30 Like the protein folding ones have three or four different types of models that often get
    0:28:32 mixed in, at least traditionally.
    0:28:35 A lot of them have moved to these transformer backbones, but then they’re augmented by other
    0:28:36 things.
    0:28:40 So it’s a little bit of like, do you have enough and the right data?
    0:28:43 Do you have the right model approach?
    0:28:44 And then can you just keep scaling it?
    0:28:48 Walk me through why I’m wrong here.
    0:28:51 Like, I’m just, you know, what came to mind when you were saying this is like, we’re training
    0:28:53 AI based on data.
    0:28:55 So it’s like, here’s how we’ve solved problems in the past.
    0:28:57 This is how you’re likely to solve it in the future.
    0:29:02 But if I remember correctly, DeepMind trained Go by just being like, here are the rules.
    0:29:06 We’re not actually going to show you people that have played before.
    0:29:10 And that led to the creativity that we now see.
    0:29:12 Yeah, that’s called self-play.
    0:29:15 And as long as you have enough rules, you can do it.
    0:29:18 You need a utility function you’re working against, right?
    0:29:21 And so in the context of a game, it’s winning the game.
    0:29:23 And there’s very specific rules of the game.
    0:29:24 You know when to flip over the Go piece.
    0:29:26 You know what winning means, right?
    0:29:30 And so it’s easy to train against that because you have a function to select against.
    0:29:31 This game you did well.
    0:29:32 This game you did badly.
    0:29:35 Here’s positive feedback or negative feedback to the model.
    0:29:37 They’re starting to do that more and more.
    0:29:40 So if you look at the way people are thinking about models now and scaling them, there’s three
    0:29:41 or four components to it.
    0:29:42 One is ongoing data scale.
    0:29:44 Second is the training cluster.
    0:29:46 People always talk about all the money they’re spending on GPUs.
    0:29:48 The third is reasoning modules.
    0:29:53 And that’s the new stuff from OpenAI in terms of 01 and 03 and all these things.
    0:30:01 There’s other forms of time of inference-related optimizations and how do you do them and some
    0:30:03 aspects eventually of this self-play.
    0:30:09 And some of the places where that may really come into focus soon is coding because you
    0:30:11 can push code and you can see if it runs and you can see what errors are thrown.
    0:30:16 And there’s more stuff you can do in domains where you have a clear output you’re shooting
    0:30:18 for and that you can test against it.
    0:30:19 And there’s rapid feedback.
    0:30:21 And there’s rapid feedback.
    0:30:21 And that’s the key.
    0:30:25 How quickly can you get feedback to keep training the system and iterating?
    0:30:27 What happens when I give an AI a prompt?
    0:30:30 Like what happens on the inside of that?
    0:30:32 What’s the difference between a good prompt and a bad prompt?
    0:30:37 Like does it basically take my prompt and break it into reasoning steps that a human would
    0:30:38 use?
    0:30:42 Like first I do this, second I do this, third I do this, and then I give the output.
    0:30:47 And then the follow-on to this is like what can we do to better prompt AI to get better
    0:30:47 outcomes?
    0:30:48 Yeah, great question.
    0:30:53 So a lot of the people working on agents have basically built what you’re describing, which
    0:30:59 is something that will take a complex task, break it down into a series of steps, store those
    0:31:01 steps, and then go back to them as you get output.
    0:31:03 So you’re actually chaining a model.
    0:31:07 You’re pinging it over and over with the output of the prior step and asking it now to do the
    0:31:07 next step.
    0:31:10 So one approach to that is you literally break it up into 10 pieces.
    0:31:15 If it’s a simple problem and you’re just like write me a limerick with XYZ characteristics,
    0:31:19 then the model can just do that in a single sort of call to the model.
    0:31:24 But if you’re trying to do something really complex, you know, book me a flight or find
    0:31:25 me and book me a flight to Mexico.
    0:31:26 It’s like, okay, first I need to find the flight.
    0:31:30 And so that means I need to go to this website and then I need to interact with the website
    0:31:30 and pull the data.
    0:31:32 Then I need to analyze that information.
    0:31:34 And then I have to figure out what fits with your trip.
    0:31:37 And then I, you know, I go through the booking steps and then I get the confirmation.
    0:31:41 So it really depends on what you’re asking the model to do.
    0:31:44 When I think of a model, though, I don’t think of an agent.
    0:31:46 I just think, well, I can’t AI do that.
    0:31:51 Like, why do I need a specific type of AI to book a flight to Mexico?
    0:31:53 Why can’t ChatGPT just do it?
    0:32:02 ChatGPT in its current form, or at least in the simplest form, is effectively interrogating
    0:32:05 a mix of like a logic engine and a knowledge corpus, right?
    0:32:10 It’s like a thing that will look at what it knows and based on that, provide you with some
    0:32:11 output.
    0:32:14 That’s a little bit different from asking somebody to take an action.
    0:32:18 And that’s similar to if I was talking to you and I said, hey, where’s a nice place to
    0:32:19 go?
    0:32:23 And you didn’t say, oh, you should go to Cabo or you should go to wherever, right?
    0:32:27 That’s different for me saying, hey, could you get me there, right?
    0:32:30 And you have to go to the computer and load up the website and book it for it.
    0:32:32 It’s the same thing for AI, right?
    0:32:37 And so right now we have AIs that are very capable at understanding language, synthesizing
    0:32:44 it, manipulating it, but they don’t have this remembrance of all the steps that they’ve
    0:32:45 taken and will take.
    0:32:49 And so you need to overlay that as another system on top of it.
    0:32:53 And you see this a lot in the way your brain works, right?
    0:32:56 You have different parts of your brain that are involved with vision and understanding
    0:32:57 it.
    0:32:59 You have different parts of your brain for language.
    0:33:01 You have different parts of your brain for empathy, right?
    0:33:05 You have mirror neurons that help you empathize with somebody or relate to them.
    0:33:10 So your brain is a bunch of modules strung together to be able to do all sorts of complex
    0:33:11 tasks, be they cognitive or physical.
    0:33:16 And one could assume that over time you end up with roughly something like that as well
    0:33:18 for certain forms of AI systems.
    0:33:21 How are you using AI today?
    0:33:23 I use it a lot.
    0:33:32 I use it for everything from, you know, like I’ll go to a conference and I’ll dump the
    0:33:36 names of the attendees in and ask like, who should I chat with based on these criteria?
    0:33:38 And could you pull background on them?
    0:33:41 You know, obviously a lot of people use it for coding right now or coding related tasks.
    0:33:45 I use it for a lot of what I’m known as like regexes, regular expansions.
    0:33:49 It’s like if I want to pull something out of certain types of data, I’ll do that sometimes.
    0:33:53 So there’s all sorts of different uses for it.
    0:33:56 What have you learned about prompting that more people should know?
    0:34:03 I think a lot of people, and I’m by no means like a, you know, there’s these people whose
    0:34:05 jobs are called prompt engineering and that’s all they do.
    0:34:11 I think fundamentally a lot of it just comes down to like, what are you specifically asking
    0:34:12 and can you create enough specificity?
    0:34:16 And sometimes you can actually add checks into the system where you say, go back and double
    0:34:19 check this just to make sure that you didn’t omit something because there are enough errors
    0:34:22 sometimes depending on which model you’re using and for what use case and everything else that
    0:34:28 if you put in simple safeguards of, hey, generate a table of XYZ as output, but then go back
    0:34:31 and double check that these two things are true, I think it’s helped me clean up a lot of things
    0:34:32 that would normally have been errors.
    0:34:35 It’s almost like adding a test case.
    0:34:36 Yeah, yeah.
    0:34:40 Basically, if you think about it as like a smart intern, you know, often with your intern,
    0:34:43 you say, okay, go do this thing, but why don’t you double check these three things about it?
    0:34:47 And as the models get more and more capable, they’ll be less like an intern and more like
    0:34:51 a junior employee, and then they’ll be like a senior employee, and then they’ll be like
    0:34:54 a manager and they’ll kind of, you know, as the models get better and better and the
    0:34:56 capabilities get stronger, you’ll see all these other things emerge.
    0:34:59 Where do you see the bottlenecks today?
    0:35:02 And like what comes to mind for me are different aspects of AI.
    0:35:09 So you have, from going all the way up the stack, you have electricity, you have compute,
    0:35:12 you have LLMs, you have data.
    0:35:17 Where do you see the bottlenecks being, where’s the biggest bang for the buck?
    0:35:19 Like what’s preventing this from going faster?
    0:35:22 You know, it’s a really interesting question.
    0:35:27 And I think there’s people who are better versed than I am in it because there’s this ongoing
    0:35:30 question of when does scaling run out for which of those things, right?
    0:35:34 When do we not have enough data to generate the next versions of models or do we just use
    0:35:35 synthetic data and will that be sufficient?
    0:35:37 Or how big of a training cluster can you actually get to economically?
    0:35:42 You know, how do you fine-tune or post-train a model and at what point does that not yield
    0:35:43 as many results?
    0:35:46 That said, each one of these things has its own scaling curves.
    0:35:48 Each one of these seems to still be working quite well.
    0:35:52 And then if you look at a lot of the new reasoning stuff that OpenAI and others have been working
    0:35:53 on, Google’s been working on some stuff here as well.
    0:35:59 When you talk to people who work on that, they feel that there’s still enormous scaling loss
    0:36:00 for that still left, right?
    0:36:02 Because those are just brand new things that just rolled out.
    0:36:06 And so these sort of reasoning engines have their own big curve to climb as well.
    0:36:11 So I think we’re going to see two or three curves sort of simultaneously continue to inflect.
    0:36:19 Is this the first real revolution where incumbents have an advantage?
    0:36:23 And I say that because data costs money, compute costs money, power costs money.
    0:36:24 Yeah.
    0:36:30 And it sort of favors the Googles, the Microsofts, the people with a ton of capital.
    0:36:31 Yeah.
    0:36:36 I think in general, every technology wave has a differential split of outcome for incumbents
    0:36:36 versus startups.
    0:36:40 So the internet was 80% startup value.
    0:36:41 It was Google.
    0:36:42 It was Amazon.
    0:36:45 You know, it was all these companies we now know and love.
    0:36:46 Meta, you know.
    0:36:54 And then mobile, the mobile revolution was probably 80% incumbent value or 90%, right?
    0:36:59 And so that was mobile search was Google and mobile CRM was Salesforce and mobile whatever
    0:37:00 was that app you were already using.
    0:37:05 And the things that emerged during that revolution of startups were things that took advantage of the
    0:37:07 unique characteristics that were new to the phone.
    0:37:08 GPS.
    0:37:09 So you had Uber.
    0:37:11 Everybody has a camera.
    0:37:12 You have Instagram, et cetera, right?
    0:37:17 And so the things that became big companies in mobile that were startups were able to do
    0:37:20 it because they took advantage of something new that the incumbents didn’t necessarily have
    0:37:21 any provenance over.
    0:37:26 Crypto was 100% or roughly 100% startup value, right?
    0:37:29 It’s Coinbase and it’s the tokens and everything else.
    0:37:33 So you kind of go through wave by wave and you ask, what are the characteristics that make
    0:37:34 something better or worse?
    0:37:38 And if you actually look at self-driving, which was sort of an earlier AI revolution in some
    0:37:43 sense, the two winners, at least in the West, seem to be Tesla, which was an incumbent car
    0:37:47 maker in some sense, by the point that they were willing to step out, and Google through
    0:37:47 Waymo.
    0:37:51 So two incumbents won in self-driving, which I think is a little bit under discussed because
    0:37:54 we had like two dozen self-driving companies, right?
    0:37:58 Wouldn’t that make sense, though, because they have the most data in the sense of like
    0:38:04 Tesla acquires so much data every day and now the way that they’ve set up full self-driving,
    0:38:07 my understanding is it’s gotten really good in the last six months.
    0:38:12 One of the reasons is they stopped coding, basically, and they started feeding the data into AI and
    0:38:15 having the AI generate the next version effectively.
    0:38:19 Yeah, a lot of the early self-driving systems were basically people writing a lot of kind of
    0:38:20 edge case heuristics.
    0:38:23 So you’d almost write a rule if X happens, you do Y or some version of that.
    0:38:26 And they moved a lot of these systems over to just end-to-end deep learning.
    0:38:31 And so this modern wave of AI has really taken over the self-driving world in a really strong
    0:38:33 way that’s really helped these things accelerate, to your point.
    0:38:36 And so Waymo similarly has gotten dramatically better recently.
    0:38:38 So I think all that’s true.
    0:38:43 I guess it’s more of a question of when does that sort of scale matter and why wasn’t there
    0:38:46 anybody who was able to partner effectively with an existing automotive company?
    0:38:49 What in other things happen in the market?
    0:38:52 For this current wave of AI, it really depends on the layer you’re talking about.
    0:38:56 And I think there’s going to be enormous value for both incumbents and startups.
    0:39:01 On the incumbent side, it really looks like the foundation model companies are either paired
    0:39:04 up or driven by incumbents.
    0:39:05 Maybe one or two kind of examples.
    0:39:09 So, you know, OpenAI is roughly partnered with Microsoft.
    0:39:10 Microsoft also has its own efforts.
    0:39:13 Google is its own partner in some sense, right?
    0:39:16 Amazon has partnered with Anthropic.
    0:39:20 Obviously, Facebook has Llama, the open source model.
    0:39:26 But I think for three of the four, and then there’s X.EI, which, you know, is Elon Musk’s just
    0:39:32 sort of ability to execute in such an insane way that’s really driving it and access to capital
    0:39:33 and all the rest.
    0:39:38 But if you look at it, and I wrote a blog post about this maybe two, three years ago, which
    0:39:40 is basically, what’s the long-term market structure for that layer?
    0:39:46 And it felt like it had to be an oligopoly or, you know, at most an oligopoly.
    0:39:48 And the reason was this point that you made about capital.
    0:39:52 And back then, it costs, you know, tens of millions to build a model.
    0:39:57 But if you extrapolated the scaling curve, you’re like, every generation is going to be a few
    0:39:58 X to 10 X more.
    0:40:02 And so, eventually, you’re talking about billions, tens of billions of dollars, not that many
    0:40:03 people can afford it.
    0:40:06 And then you ask, what’s the financial incentive for funding it?
    0:40:10 And the financial incentive for the cloud businesses is their clouds, right?
    0:40:14 If you look at Azure’s last quarter, I think it was like a $28 billion quarter or something
    0:40:14 like that.
    0:40:19 I think they said that 10 to 15% of the lift on that was from AI being sold on the cloud.
    0:40:21 So, that’s what?
    0:40:23 One and a half to three billion, a quarter, right?
    0:40:28 So, the financial incentive for Microsoft to fund open AI is it feeds back into its cloud.
    0:40:30 It feeds back in other ways, too, but it feeds back to its cloud.
    0:40:36 And so, I don’t think it’s surprising that the biggest funders of AI today, besides sovereign
    0:40:39 wealth, has been clouds because they have a financial incentive to do it.
    0:40:40 And people really miss that.
    0:40:45 So, I think that that is part of what really helped lock in this oligopoly structure early
    0:40:49 is you had enormous capital scale going to a handful of the best players through these
    0:40:49 cloud providers.
    0:40:52 And so, the venture capitalists would put hundreds of millions of dollars into these companies.
    0:40:54 The clouds put tens of billions in.
    0:40:55 Yeah.
    0:40:56 And that’s the difference.
    0:41:04 And I guess the optimism there is that I can go use the full scale of AWS or Azure or
    0:41:07 Google and just rent time.
    0:41:09 So, I don’t need to make the capital investments.
    0:41:10 I don’t need to run the data center.
    0:41:11 I don’t need to.
    0:41:13 Well, you could have done that either way, right?
    0:41:16 You didn’t have to take money from them because they’re happy to be a customer.
    0:41:17 That’s what I’m saying, right?
    0:41:21 So, like the optimism is like you can compete with them now because you’re just competing
    0:41:22 on ideas.
    0:41:24 You have access to the structure.
    0:41:25 Yeah.
    0:41:25 Yeah.
    0:41:28 And you would have done that no matter what, just given that everything moved to clouds,
    0:41:30 like these third-party clouds that you can run on.
    0:41:35 So, that’s enabling, but at least for these sort of language models, they’re increasingly
    0:41:37 just a moat due to capital scale.
    0:41:41 Do you think that we just end up with like three or four and they’re all pretty much equivalent?
    0:41:43 Yeah, I’m not sure.
    0:41:45 I think you can imagine two worlds.
    0:41:47 World one is where you have an asymptote.
    0:41:51 Eventually, things kind of all flatline against some curve because you can only scale a cluster
    0:41:53 so much, you only have so much data or whatever.
    0:41:56 In which case, eventually, things should converge really closely over time.
    0:42:00 And in general, things have been converging faster than not across the major model platforms
    0:42:01 already.
    0:42:07 Where a second world is, if you think about the capability set built into each AI model,
    0:42:12 if you have something that’s far enough ahead and it’s very good at code and it’s very good
    0:42:16 at data labeling and it’s very good at doing a lot of the jobs that allow you to build the
    0:42:20 next model really fast, then eventually you may end up with a very strong positive feedback
    0:42:25 loop for whoever’s far enough ahead that their model always creates the next version of the
    0:42:26 model faster than anybody else.
    0:42:28 And then you maybe have liftoff, right?
    0:42:32 Maybe that’s the thing that ends up dramatically far ahead because every six months becomes more
    0:42:33 important than the last five years.
    0:42:38 And so, there’s another world you could imagine where you’re in a liftoff scenario where there’s
    0:42:41 a feedback loop of the model effectively creating its next version.
    0:42:47 So, GPT-5 or 7 or whatever, GPT-7 would create GPT-8, which would help create GPT-9, which
    0:42:48 would even faster create GPT-10.
    0:42:54 And at that point, you have an advantage, but the advantage is expanding at the velocity at
    0:42:55 which you’re creating the next model.
    0:42:55 Correct.
    0:43:00 Because GPT-10 perhaps is so much more capable than 9 that everybody else is at 9, it’s already
    0:43:00 building 11.
    0:43:04 And it can build it faster, smarter, et cetera, than everybody else.
    0:43:09 And so, it really comes down to what proportion of the model building task or model training
    0:43:12 and building task is eventually done by AI itself.
    0:43:16 Spring is here and you can now get almost anything you need delivered with Uber Eats.
    0:43:17 What do we mean by almost?
    0:43:20 You can’t get a well-groomed lawn delivered, but you can get chicken Parmesan delivered.
    0:43:21 Sunshine?
    0:43:21 No.
    0:43:22 Some wine?
    0:43:23 Yes.
    0:43:29 What do you think of Facebook?
    0:43:34 They’ve spent, I don’t know, 50, 60 billion and they’ve basically given it away to society.
    0:43:35 Yeah.
    0:43:35 Yeah.
    0:43:39 I’ve been super impressed by what they’ve done with Llama.
    0:43:40 I think open source is incredibly important.
    0:43:43 And why is open source important?
    0:43:45 It does a couple of things.
    0:43:51 One is it levels a playing field for different types of uses of this technology and it makes
    0:43:53 it globally available in certain ways that’s important.
    0:43:59 Second, it allows you to take out things that you may not want in there and because it’s
    0:44:01 open weights and it’s open source.
    0:44:08 So, if you’re worried about a specific political bias or a specific cultural outlook, because
    0:44:13 it’s really interesting if you look at the way people talk about norms and what should be
    0:44:17 built into models and safety and all the rest, it’s like, who are you to determine all
    0:44:22 of global norms with your own values, right?
    0:44:25 That’s a form of cultural imperialism if you think about it, right?
    0:44:28 You’re basically imposing what you think on everybody else.
    0:44:32 And so, open source models gives you a bit more leeway in terms of being able to retrain
    0:44:39 a model or have it reflect whatever norms of your country or your region or whatever lens
    0:44:40 on that you want to take.
    0:44:42 So, I think it’s also important from that perspective.
    0:44:49 As an investor, what’s the ROI on a $1,600 billion open source model?
    0:44:53 How do you think through what Facebook is trying to do or accomplish?
    0:44:57 Is it just like, I don’t want the competitors to get too far ahead?
    0:45:00 I don’t know how meta specifically is thinking about it.
    0:45:03 So, I think I’d be sort of talking out of turn if I just made some stuff up.
    0:45:09 I think that in general, there’s been all sorts of times where open source has been very important
    0:45:10 strategically for companies.
    0:45:15 And if you actually look at it, almost every single major open source company has had a
    0:45:17 giant institutional backer.
    0:45:20 IBM was the biggest funder of Linux in the 90s as a counterbalance to Microsoft.
    0:45:27 And the biggest funders of all the open source browsers are Apple and Google with WebKit.
    0:45:31 And you just go through technology wave after technology wave, and there’s always a giant
    0:45:32 backer.
    0:45:35 And maybe the biggest counter to that is Bitcoin and all the crypto stuff.
    0:45:40 And you could argue that they’re their own backer through the token, right?
    0:45:43 So, Bitcoin financially effectively has fueled the development of Bitcoin.
    0:45:49 It’s kind of paid for itself in some sense as an open source tool or open source sort of
    0:45:50 form of money.
    0:45:52 You know, I don’t know why AI would be different.
    0:45:58 I, a couple years ago, was trying to extrapolate who is the most likely party to be the funder
    0:46:00 of open source AI.
    0:46:04 And back then, I thought it would be Amazon, because at the time, they didn’t have a horse
    0:46:07 in the race like Microsoft and Google, or maybe be NVIDIA.
    0:46:12 And Meta was kind of on the list because of all the money they have, but in prowess and
    0:46:15 engineering and fair, and, you know, they have a lot of great things, but they weren’t the
    0:46:17 one I would have guessed as the most likely.
    0:46:19 They were on the list, but they weren’t the most likely.
    0:46:23 And then there’s other players with tons of money, and tons of capabilities.
    0:46:25 And the question is, are they going to do anything?
    0:46:26 What does Apple do?
    0:46:27 What does Samsung do?
    0:46:31 You know, there’s like half a dozen companies that could still do really interesting things
    0:46:32 if they wanted to.
    0:46:33 And the question is, what are they going to do?
    0:46:39 How would you think about sort of the big players and who is best positioned for the
    0:46:41 next two to three years?
    0:46:42 How would you rank them?
    0:46:44 In terms of AI or in terms of other things?
    0:46:46 In terms of AI.
    0:46:47 Yeah.
    0:46:53 Like who’s most likely to accrue some of the advantages of AI?
    0:46:59 Yeah, it’s kind of hard because AI is the only market where the more I learn, the less I
    0:47:00 know.
    0:47:02 And in every other market, the more I learn, the more I know.
    0:47:05 And the more predictive value, or the more I’m able to predict things.
    0:47:06 And I can’t predict anything anymore.
    0:47:09 You know, I feel like every six months, things change over so rapidly.
    0:47:13 You know, fundamentally, there’s a handful of companies in the market that are doing very
    0:47:14 well.
    0:47:21 Obviously, there’s Google, there’s Meta, there’s OpenAI, there’s Microsoft, Anthropic, and AWS
    0:47:24 or Anthropic, X.AI.
    0:47:27 You know, Mistral has done some interesting things over time.
    0:47:30 So I think there’s like a handful of companies that are the ones to watch.
    0:47:32 And the question is, how does this market evolve?
    0:47:33 Does it consolidate or not?
    0:47:34 Like what happens?
    0:47:37 How do you think about regulation around AI?
    0:47:38 Yeah.
    0:47:43 So there’s basically like three or four forms of AI safety that people talk about and they
    0:47:44 kind of mix or complate them.
    0:47:47 The first form of AI safety is almost what I call like digital safety.
    0:47:48 It’s like, will the thing offend you?
    0:47:51 Or will there be hate content or other things?
    0:47:55 And there’s actually a lot of rules that already exist around hate speech on the internet or hate
    0:47:58 speech in general or, you know, what’s free speech or not and how you should think about
    0:47:58 all these things.
    0:48:00 So I’m less concerned about that.
    0:48:01 I think people will figure that out.
    0:48:06 There’s a second area, which is almost like physical safety, which is will you use AI to
    0:48:07 create a virus?
    0:48:09 Will you use AI to derail a train?
    0:48:10 You know, et cetera.
    0:48:15 And similarly, like when I look at the arguments made about how it will create a biological
    0:48:18 virus and et cetera, et cetera, like you can already do that, right?
    0:48:24 The protocols for cloning and PCR and all this, it’s all on the internet.
    0:48:25 It’s all posted by major labs.
    0:48:26 It’s in all the textbooks.
    0:48:30 Like that’s not new knowledge that people can’t just go and do right now if they really wanted
    0:48:30 to.
    0:48:33 So I don’t know why that matters in terms of AI.
    0:48:41 And then the third area is sort of this existential safetyism, like AI will become self-aware and
    0:48:42 destroy us, right?
    0:48:45 And when people talk about safety, they mix those three things.
    0:48:48 They conflate them and therefore they say, well, eventually maybe something terrible happens
    0:48:50 here, so we better shut everything else down.
    0:48:52 While other people are just saying, hey, I’m worried about hate speech.
    0:48:56 And so I think when people talk about safety, they have to really define clearly what they
    0:48:56 mean.
    0:49:00 And then they have to create a clear view of why it’s a real concern.
    0:49:04 It’s sort of like if I kept saying, I think an asteroid could at some point hit the earth
    0:49:06 and therefore we better do X, Y, Z.
    0:49:07 We should move the earth or whatever.
    0:49:11 You know, it’s just at some point these things get a little bit ridiculous in terms of safetyism.
    0:49:16 There’s actually a broader question societally of like why has society become so risk averse
    0:49:17 in certain ways and so safety centric?
    0:49:20 And it impacts things in all sorts of ways.
    0:49:22 I’ll give you a dumb example.
    0:49:28 After what age does the data suggest that a child doesn’t need a special seat?
    0:49:29 They can just use a seatbelt.
    0:49:33 I think it’s like 10 or 12, isn’t it?
    0:49:37 Well, so in California, for example, the law is up until age eight.
    0:49:37 Okay.
    0:49:40 You have to be in a booster seat or a car seat or whatever.
    0:49:46 If you actually look at crash data, real data, and people have now reproduced this across
    0:49:48 multiple countries, multiple time periods.
    0:49:49 It’s the age of two.
    0:49:50 Oh, wow.
    0:49:53 So for six extra years, we keep people in booster seats and car seats and all that,
    0:49:55 at least against the data, right?
    0:49:55 Okay.
    0:49:58 The Freakonomics podcast actually had a pretty good bit on this.
    0:50:02 And there’s like multiple papers now that reproducibly show this retrospectively.
    0:50:03 You just look at all the crashes.
    0:50:04 That’s crazy.
    0:50:04 Yeah.
    0:50:05 So why do we do it?
    0:50:05 Safety.
    0:50:07 But it’s not safe.
    0:50:08 Exactly.
    0:50:09 But it’s positioned as safe.
    0:50:11 As a parent, of course, you want to protect your children.
    0:50:11 No, seriously, right?
    0:50:14 And so, but then it has other implications.
    0:50:17 It’s like you can’t easily transport the kids in certain scenarios because you don’t have
    0:50:22 the car seat or, you know, you can only fit so many car seats in a car and it’s a pain
    0:50:22 in the butt.
    0:50:24 And do you upgrade the car if you want more kids?
    0:50:25 And can you afford it?
    0:50:27 And, you know, so it has all these ramifications.
    0:50:33 And it’s because I think, A, it’s lucrative for the car seat companies to sell more car seats
    0:50:34 for longer, right?
    0:50:35 You get an extra six years on the kid or whatever.
    0:50:39 Parents will, of course, say, I want safety no matter what.
    0:50:44 And certain legislatures are happy to just, you know, legislate it.
    0:50:48 So I think there’s lots and lots and lots of examples of that in society if you start picking
    0:50:51 at it and you realize it pervades everything.
    0:50:52 It pervades aspects of medicine.
    0:50:55 It pervades things like AI now.
    0:50:56 It’s just, it’s everywhere.
    0:51:03 There’s one in Ottawa that I see on mornings when there’s schools around the, I don’t know,
    0:51:04 five or six blocks of a school.
    0:51:07 They basically have crossing guards everywhere now.
    0:51:13 So it’s basically, even for high schools, like, so kids can’t walk to school on their
    0:51:19 own, which I think you think, oh, well, how do you argue with that, right?
    0:51:23 Like, and then I was thinking about this the other day because I was driving and, you know,
    0:51:27 I got stopped by one of these people and I was like, we’re just teaching kids that like
    0:51:28 they don’t even have to pay attention.
    0:51:30 They can look at their phone.
    0:51:32 The crossing guard is going to save them.
    0:51:36 And then if the crossing guard is not like they’re, we’re not developing ownership or
    0:51:37 agency in people.
    0:51:39 How do you think about that?
    0:51:44 I think it’s, I think it’s really bad for society at scale.
    0:51:48 I mean, it’s kind of like, there was a different wave of this, which was, you know, 10, 15 years
    0:51:53 ago with fragility and microaggressions and everything can offend you and you need to be super fragile
    0:51:53 and all this stuff, right?
    0:51:55 Which I think is very bad for, for kids.
    0:51:57 And I think that has a lot of mental health implications.
    0:52:03 The wave we’re in now, which is basically taking away independence, agency, risk-taking.
    0:52:09 I think that has some really bad downstream implications in terms of how people act, what they consider
    0:52:14 to be risky or not, and what that means about how they’re going to act in life and also their
    0:52:15 ability to actually function independently.
    0:52:16 So I agree.
    0:52:20 I think, I think all those things are things that we’ve accumulated over the last few decades
    0:52:21 that are probably quite negative.
    0:52:27 You’re one of the most successful investors that a lot of people have probably never heard
    0:52:27 of.
    0:52:32 One of the things that you’ve said is that most companies die from self-inflicted wounds and
    0:52:33 not competition.
    0:52:38 What are the most common self-inflicted wounds that kill companies?
    0:52:40 Yeah, I think there’s two or three of them.
    0:52:43 You know, it depends on the stage of the company.
    0:52:47 For a very early company, the two ways that they die is the founders start fighting and
    0:52:51 the team blows up, or they run out of money, which means they never got to product market
    0:52:51 fit.
    0:52:54 They never figured out something that they could build economically that people would care
    0:52:54 about.
    0:52:58 So for the earliest stages, that’s, that’s roughly everything.
    0:53:04 Every once in a while, you have some competitive dynamic, but the reality is most incumbent companies
    0:53:05 don’t care about startups.
    0:53:10 And startups have five, six years before an incumbent wakes up and realizes it’s a big deal and then
    0:53:11 tries to crush them.
    0:53:13 And sometimes that works.
    0:53:16 Sometimes you just end up with capped outcomes.
    0:53:19 So for example, you could argue Zoom and Slack got capped by Microsoft launching stuff into
    0:53:24 teams in terms of taking parts of the market or creating a more competitive market dynamic
    0:53:25 for them.
    0:53:29 You know, the other types of self-inflicted wounds, honestly, sometimes people get very competitor
    0:53:31 centric versus customer centric.
    0:53:33 Go deeper on that.
    0:53:35 I mean, there’s a lot of examples of that.
    0:53:41 Sort of like if you focus on your, your competitor too much, you stop doing your own thing.
    0:53:46 You stop building that thing the customer actually wants and you lose differentiation relative to
    0:53:47 your competitor.
    0:53:51 Or you start doing things that can hurt your competitor, but they don’t necessarily help
    0:53:51 you.
    0:53:54 And sometimes your competitor will retaliate.
    0:54:00 An example of that would be in the pharmaceutical distribution world.
    0:54:05 You know, 20 years ago, there was roughly three players that really mattered of any scale.
    0:54:08 And they used to go after each other’s market share really aggressively, which eroded all the
    0:54:10 pricing, which meant they were bad businesses.
    0:54:16 And at some point, I think one of them decided to stop competing for share, but just protect
    0:54:17 itself.
    0:54:20 And then the others copied it and suddenly margins went way up in the industry, right?
    0:54:24 They stopped being as focused on banging on each other and more just like, let me just
    0:54:26 build more services for my customers and let’s just focus on our own set.
    0:54:30 We’re all going to win a lot more that way, right?
    0:54:33 In some cases, yeah, if you have an oligopoly market, that’s usually where it ends up.
    0:54:38 Eventually, this is why people are so worried about collusion, right?
    0:54:42 Eventually, the companies decide, hey, we should be in a stable equilibrium instead of beating
    0:54:44 up on each other and shrinking margins.
    0:54:49 Scaling a company often means scaling the CEO.
    0:54:56 What have you learned about the ways that successful CEOs scale themselves and things that get in the
    0:54:57 way?
    0:54:58 Yeah, I think it’s two or three things.
    0:55:02 One is figuring out who else you need to fill out your team with and how much can you trust
    0:55:03 them and all the rest.
    0:55:08 And so one piece of it is very innovative founder CEOs always want to innovate and so
    0:55:10 they reinvent things that they shouldn’t reinvent.
    0:55:14 Like sales is like effectively process engineering that’s been worked through for decades.
    0:55:16 You don’t need to go reinvent sales.
    0:55:18 You know, you just hire a sales team and it’ll work just fine.
    0:55:21 So one aspect is getting out of your own way on reinvention.
    0:55:23 There’s certain things you want to rethink, but many of them you don’t.
    0:55:27 Part of it is hiring people who are going to be effective in those roles and more effective
    0:55:28 than you might be.
    0:55:31 Often you end up finding people who are complementary to you.
    0:55:39 Now that really breaks down during CEO succession because what happens is often the CEO will promote
    0:55:43 the person who’s their complement as the next CEO instead of finding somebody like them who
    0:55:47 can innovate and push on people and drive new products and new changes.
    0:55:52 And so often you see companies have a golden age under a founder and then decay.
    0:55:56 And the decay is because the founder promoted their lieutenant who was great at operations
    0:56:00 or whatever, but wasn’t a great product thinker or technology vision like themselves.
    0:56:04 And so that’s actually a failure mode for like longer term related areas.
    0:56:08 You could argue such a Microsoft is a good example of somebody who has more of a founder mindset.
    0:56:09 I’m going to reinvent things.
    0:56:10 I’m going to rethink things.
    0:56:11 I’m going to do these crazy deals.
    0:56:14 They backed open AI at GPT-2, which is like a huge risk.
    0:56:16 They’ve done all sorts of really smart acquisitions.
    0:56:22 So like that’s an example of somebody who actually did a, they did a smart succession there in
    0:56:25 terms of finding somebody who’s a bit more like product founder mentality.
    0:56:35 You know, in terms of other ways that CEOs fail is they listen too much to conventional wisdom
    0:56:37 on how to structure their team.
    0:56:42 And really the way you want to have your team function at a large organization is based
    0:56:43 on the CEO.
    0:56:45 What does the CEO need?
    0:56:46 What are the compliments they need?
    0:56:47 What is the structure they need?
    0:56:52 And if you were to plop out that person and plop in a different CEO, that structure probably
    0:56:53 shouldn’t work like half the time.
    0:56:57 There’s some types of people where there’s lots of commonalities, particularly if it’s people
    0:57:01 who came up the corporate ladder and they’re all used to doing things the same way.
    0:57:05 But if you’re more of a founder CEO and you’re going to have your quirks and you’re going
    0:57:08 to have your obsessions and you’re going to have all these things that founders often
    0:57:11 have, you need an org structure that reflects you.
    0:57:13 And so like Jensen from NVIDIA talks about this, right?
    0:57:15 The claim is he has like 40 direct reports.
    0:57:19 He claims that, you know, he doesn’t do many one-on-ones or things like that.
    0:57:22 And the focus is more on finding very effective people who’ve been with him for a while and
    0:57:23 who can just drive things, right?
    0:57:25 And then he sort of deep dives in different areas.
    0:57:31 That’s a very different structure from how Satya’s running Microsoft or Larry Ellison
    0:57:32 has run Oracle over time.
    0:57:36 Or, you know, you look at these other sort of giants of industry and management and everything
    0:57:36 else.
    0:57:40 And so I think you really need an org structure that reflects you.
    0:57:43 Now, there’s going to be commonalities and there’s only so many reports most people can
    0:57:44 handle and all the rest of it.
    0:57:48 But I do think you kind of want to have the team that reflects your needs versus the generic
    0:57:49 team that could reflect anybody’s needs.
    0:57:54 Is that the problem with sort of a lot of these business leadership books that are written
    0:57:59 about a particular person in style that they have and then people read them and they try
    0:58:02 to implement them, but it’s not genuine to who they are?
    0:58:03 I think that’s very true.
    0:58:07 And it really depends on whether you’re talking about the generic case of, hey, it’s a big
    0:58:12 company and you’re at a related large company that’s 100 years old that’s been run a certain
    0:58:12 way.
    0:58:17 Like, I wouldn’t be surprised if you could roughly interchange the CEOs of a subset of the pharma
    0:58:19 companies in terms of the org structure.
    0:58:23 They may not have the chemistry with the people or the trust or whatever, but like the org
    0:58:25 structures are probably reasonably similar.
    0:58:28 That’s probably pretty different than if you looked at, you know, how Oracle has been run
    0:58:32 over time versus Microsoft over time versus Google over time versus whoever.
    0:58:38 When you say that, I think the wording you use like conventional wisdom, CEOs should pay less
    0:58:39 attention to conventional wisdom.
    0:58:46 Do you mean that in the sense of the, I guess the nomenclature that Brian Jeske came out
    0:58:47 was founder mode?
    0:58:55 Yeah, I think, um, I think we lived through a decade or so, maybe longer where a lot of
    0:59:01 forces came into play in the workplace that were not productive to the company actually obtaining
    0:59:02 its missions and objectives.
    0:59:08 And a lot of that was all the different forms of politics and bring your whole self to work
    0:59:11 and all these things that people are talking about, which I don’t want somebody’s whole
    0:59:11 self at work.
    0:59:18 You know, I remember at Google, um, for Halloween, uh, and maybe we should edit this part out,
    0:59:20 but there’s somebody who would show up and ask those chaps every Halloween.
    0:59:23 And you’re like, I don’t want to see that.
    0:59:24 Like I’m in a work environment.
    0:59:26 Why is this, why is this engineer walking around like this?
    0:59:26 Yeah.
    0:59:27 Yeah.
    0:59:30 And then the second you start bringing kids to work, you’re like, I sure as hell don’t
    0:59:31 want this guy walking around.
    0:59:31 Right.
    0:59:32 Yeah.
    0:59:33 And that’s bring your whole self to work.
    0:59:34 Like, why would you do that?
    0:59:37 You actually should bring your professional self to work.
    0:59:40 You should bring the person who’s going to be effective in a work environment and can work
    0:59:44 with all sorts of diverse people and be effective and doesn’t bring all their mores
    0:59:47 and values and everything else in the workplace that don’t have a place in the workplace.
    0:59:49 There’s a subset of those that do, but many don’t.
    0:59:54 We lived through a decade where not only were those things encouraged, but the traditional
    0:59:58 conventionalist executives brought that stuff with them.
    1:00:00 And I think it was probably bad for a lot of cultures.
    1:00:02 It defocused them from their mission.
    1:00:04 It defocused them from their customers.
    1:00:06 It defocused them from doing the things that were actually important.
    1:00:11 And the first person to speak out against that was Brian Armstrong that I remember like
    1:00:13 in a very public and visible way.
    1:00:17 And then Toby Luque followed him not long after.
    1:00:20 And they said, no, the workplace is not about that.
    1:00:22 It’s about X, Y, and Z.
    1:00:24 And if you don’t like it, like basically leave.
    1:00:24 Yeah.
    1:00:29 And was that the moment where we started to go back to founder mode effectively?
    1:00:31 I think it took some time.
    1:00:33 I think Brian was incredibly brave for doing that.
    1:00:33 Totally.
    1:00:35 And he got a lot of flack for it.
    1:00:35 And I think it-
    1:00:36 They tried to cancel him.
    1:00:39 They tried to cancel him aggressively, which was sort of the playbook, right?
    1:00:42 Oh, and this was happening inside of companies too, right?
    1:00:44 You’d say something and you’d get canceled for it.
    1:00:47 And so you can have a real conversation around some of these things.
    1:00:48 And again, that just reinforced it.
    1:00:52 And I think Brian stepping forward made a huge difference.
    1:00:54 To your point, Toby, I think did it really well.
    1:01:00 I still sometimes send the essay that he wrote for that to other people where he had a few
    1:01:04 central premises, which is we have a specific mission and we’re going to focus on that.
    1:01:05 We’re not focusing on other things.
    1:01:07 We’re not a family.
    1:01:07 We’re a team.
    1:01:08 Yeah.
    1:01:09 Right?
    1:01:12 The family is like, hey, your uncle shows up drunk all the time.
    1:01:14 You kind of tolerate it because it’s your uncle.
    1:01:18 If somebody showed up drunk at work all the time, you shouldn’t tolerate that, right?
    1:01:19 You’re not a family.
    1:01:20 You’re a sports team.
    1:01:22 You’re trying to optimize for performance.
    1:01:26 You’re trying to optimize for the positive interchange within that team.
    1:01:30 And you want people pulling in the direction of the team, not people doing their own thing,
    1:01:31 which is a family, right?
    1:01:35 And so I think there was a lot of these kind of conversations or discussions that were more
    1:01:40 like it’s a family and bring yourself to work and all the holisticness of yourself.
    1:01:44 And it’s actually, well, no, you probably shouldn’t show up at work drunk and, you know,
    1:01:45 look at bad things on the internet.
    1:01:49 You know, you should focus on your job and you should focus on good collaboration with your
    1:01:50 co-workers and things like that.
    1:01:57 You’re around a lot of outlier CEOs, not only in the context of you know them, but
    1:01:58 you hang out with them.
    1:01:59 You spend a lot of time with them.
    1:02:03 What are sort of the common patterns that you’ve seen amongst them?
    1:02:06 Are there common patterns or is everybody completely unique?
    1:02:10 But I imagine that at the core, there’s commonality.
    1:02:11 Yeah.
    1:02:13 You know, this is something I’ve been kind of riffing on lately, and I don’t know if it’s
    1:02:15 quite correct, but I think there’s like two or three common patterns.
    1:02:19 I think pattern one is there are a set of people who are, and by the way, all these people
    1:02:24 are like incredibly smart, you know, incredibly insightful, et cetera, right?
    1:02:28 So they all have a few common things.
    1:02:30 But I do think there’s two or three archetypes.
    1:02:32 I think one of them is just the people who are hyper-focused.
    1:02:34 They don’t get involved with other businesses.
    1:02:36 They don’t do a lot of angel investments.
    1:02:38 They don’t, you know, do press junkets that don’t make sense.
    1:02:40 They just stay on one track.
    1:02:44 And a version of that was Travis from Uber.
    1:02:47 I knew him a little bit before Uber, and I’ve, you know, run into him once or twice since
    1:02:50 then, but like, he was always just incredibly focused.
    1:02:52 He used to be an amazing angel investor.
    1:02:55 I think he made great investments, but he stopped doing it with Uber, and he just focused on Uber.
    1:02:59 And as far as I know, he never sold secondary until he left the company, right?
    1:03:02 He was just hyper-focused on making it as successful as possible.
    1:03:04 So that’s one class of ArchType.
    1:03:12 There’s a second class, which I’d view as people who are equally smart and driven, but a bit more,
    1:03:15 polymathic may be the wrong word, but they just have very broad interests, and they express
    1:03:17 those interests in different ways while they’re also running their company.
    1:03:22 And often they have a period where they’re just focused on their company, and then they
    1:03:23 add these other things over time.
    1:03:28 And so examples of that, I mean, obviously Elon Musk is now that, right?
    1:03:29 In terms of all that.
    1:03:35 Patrick Collison is that he’s running a biology institute, or his Sobana and the other Patrick
    1:03:38 are running it alongside him called ARK.
    1:03:44 Brian Armstrong is now running a longevity company in parallel to Coinbase, or he has somebody
    1:03:45 running it.
    1:03:51 So there’s a lot of these examples of people doing X2, X3, and doing it in other fields.
    1:03:56 Honestly, that’s a little bit of a new development relative to what you were allowed to do before,
    1:04:01 because there’s both activist investors who try to prevent that, and public markets in
    1:04:02 particular.
    1:04:07 But also, it was just a different mindset of how do I show impact over time?
    1:04:12 Are these people going from the first one, hyper-focused, to this?
    1:04:16 Or were they always sort of, I don’t want to use the word dabble because it really understates
    1:04:19 how focused they are on their businesses.
    1:04:24 But are they always like that, and as they get larger, it scales differently?
    1:04:30 Or is it, no, we’ve gone from sort of the first, which is this hyper-focus, to the second?
    1:04:36 I think it’s more like when you talk to them, the way that they think about the world and
    1:04:40 the set of interests they have is a little bit different from the first group of folks.
    1:04:43 And I’m not talking about Travis specifically, because I didn’t know him well enough to have
    1:04:44 a perspective on that.
    1:04:49 But I just mean more generally, I’ve noticed that they have this commonality of when you
    1:04:55 talk to them very early, they’re like 20 years old or whatever, and you meet them, the set
    1:04:57 of interests that they have is very, very broad.
    1:05:02 And they tend to go very deep on each thing that they get interested in, whether it benefits
    1:05:03 them or not.
    1:05:04 They just go deep on it, right?
    1:05:05 Because it’s interesting.
    1:05:09 They’re driven by a certain form of interestingness, in addition to being driven by impact.
    1:05:13 And then I think there’s a third set of people who end up with outside successes.
    1:05:16 And sometimes that’s just product market fit.
    1:05:18 And then they grow into the role, you know?
    1:05:24 And so there’s some businesses that just have either such strong network effects or just such
    1:05:26 strong liftoff early on.
    1:05:29 And they’re obviously very smart people and all the rest of it, but you don’t feel that
    1:05:33 same drive underlying it or that same need to do big things.
    1:05:34 It’s almost accidental.
    1:05:37 And you sometimes see that.
    1:05:39 Would you say that’s more luck?
    1:05:41 I don’t know.
    1:05:45 I mean, say somebody is really good at product market fit, but they’re not that aggressive.
    1:05:47 And once they hit a certain level, they’re not that ambitious.
    1:05:49 Part of it too is like, what’s your utility curve?
    1:05:50 Like, what do you care about in life?
    1:05:52 Do you care about status?
    1:05:53 Do you care about money?
    1:05:54 Do you care about power?
    1:05:55 Do you care about impact?
    1:05:57 Do you do things because it’s interesting?
    1:05:58 Like, why do you do stuff?
    1:06:04 And imagine people where that is a big part of everything they do, right?
    1:06:07 Because I think the average person may have mixes of that, but they’re also just happy
    1:06:08 going to their kids and hanging out, you know?
    1:06:10 And like, it’s a different life, right?
    1:06:16 Like, the average Google engineer is not going to be this insanely driven, hyper, you know,
    1:06:17 hyper drive person anymore.
    1:06:20 What do you think keeps people going?
    1:06:25 I mean, a lot of people become successful and maybe they hit whatever number they have in
    1:06:29 their head that they can like retire comfortably or live the life they want to live and they
    1:06:31 become complacent.
    1:06:32 Maybe not intentionally.
    1:06:36 I mean, they’re not thinking that way, but they take their foot off the gas and, you
    1:06:39 know, all of a sudden I’m focused on 10 different things instead of one thing.
    1:06:45 And then there’s another subset of people that are like, they just blow right by that and
    1:06:46 they keep going.
    1:06:50 And whether it’s a hundred million or a billion or a 10 billion or, you know, in Elon’s case,
    1:06:53 a hundred billion or more, but they keep going.
    1:06:54 Yeah.
    1:06:55 It’s back to what’s your utility, like, what do you care about?
    1:06:56 What’s your utility function?
    1:06:57 What’s driving you?
    1:07:02 And based on what’s driving you, like the people that I know who have been very successful
    1:07:03 or driven solely by money end up miserable.
    1:07:07 Because they have money and then, and then what?
    1:07:08 It’s never enough.
    1:07:09 What do you do then?
    1:07:10 Well, it’s not just never enough.
    1:07:12 It’s just, what do you do?
    1:07:13 What fulfills you?
    1:07:15 You can already buy everything you could ever buy.
    1:07:17 Like what fulfills you?
    1:07:22 And you also see versions of this where you see people who make it and then they don’t know
    1:07:23 what to do with themselves.
    1:07:24 I think I mentioned this earlier.
    1:07:28 There’s one guy I know who’s incredibly successful and he spends all his time buying domain names.
    1:07:34 You’re like, well, is that fulfilling or, you know, it’s almost like what’s your meaning or purpose?
    1:07:41 I feel like the people who end up doing these other things have some broader meaning or purpose driver even very early on.
    1:07:43 And obviously people want to win and all the rest.
    1:07:47 There’s this really good framework from Naval Ravikant.
    1:07:53 And so in the 90s, John Doerr, who’s one of the giants, the legends of investing, used to ask founders,
    1:07:54 are you a missionary or mercenary?
    1:07:59 And of course, the question that you were expected to say is, I’m a missionary, right?
    1:08:02 I’m doing it because it’s the right work to do and all this.
    1:08:09 And Naval’s framework is like, when you’re young, of course, you’re at least half, if not more, mercenary.
    1:08:10 Yeah.
    1:08:11 You want to make it.
    1:08:11 You’re hungry.
    1:08:12 You don’t have any money.
    1:08:13 You need to survive.
    1:08:16 You know, you’re driven because of that in part.
    1:08:23 And then in the middle phase of your career or life, you’re more of a missionary if you’re not a zero-sum person, right?
    1:08:24 You suddenly can have a broader purpose.
    1:08:25 You can do other things.
    1:08:26 You can engage.
    1:08:28 And then he’s like, late in your life, you’re an artist.
    1:08:30 You do it for the love of the craft, right?
    1:08:42 I much prefer that framework of the people that I see who do the most interesting big things over time fall into that latter category where always there is some mercenary piece.
    1:08:45 Of course, you want to have money to survive and all this stuff.
    1:08:49 And then that morphs into you become more mission-centric.
    1:08:52 And then over time, you just do it for the love of whatever the thing you’re doing is.
    1:08:54 And those are the people that I see that become happy over time.
    1:08:58 What’s the difference between success and relevance?
    1:09:03 Yeah, it’s a great question because there’s lots of different ways to define success.
    1:09:06 Success could mean I have a million Instagram followers.
    1:09:09 It depends on your own version of success, right?
    1:09:13 So, societally, one of the big versions of success is a big financial outcome.
    1:09:16 One could argue a bigger version of that is like a happy family.
    1:09:18 You know, like there’s lots of versions of success.
    1:09:26 Relevance means that you’re somehow impacting things that are important to the world and people seek you out because of that.
    1:09:28 Or alternatively, you’re just impacting things, right?
    1:09:32 But usually, people end up seeking you out because of that for a specific thing.
    1:09:37 And the amazing thing is that there’s lots and lots of people who’ve been successful who are no longer relevant.
    1:09:44 You just look at the list of even the billionaires or whatever metric you want to use and like how many of those people are actually sought out.
    1:09:45 Yeah.
    1:09:47 Because they’re doing something interesting or important.
    1:09:51 And so, there’s this interesting question that I’ve been toying with, which is,
    1:09:55 are there characteristics to people who stay relevant over very long arcs of time?
    1:09:59 People are constantly doing interesting things, right?
    1:10:05 One could argue Sam Altman has sort of maintained that over a very long arc between YC and the early things he was involved with the investing side.
    1:10:08 And then, of course, now OpenAI and other areas.
    1:10:12 Patrick is obviously doing that between Stripe and Arc and other areas.
    1:10:16 And there’s people with longer arcs than that, right?
    1:10:21 Marc Andreessen invented the browser and then there was one of the key people behind that.
    1:10:26 And then started multiple companies, including Netscape, which was a giant of the internet.
    1:10:28 And then started, you know, one of the most important venture firms in the world.
    1:10:33 And so, that’s a great example of a very, very strong arc over time.
    1:10:36 Or Elon Musk is a very strong arc over time, right?
    1:10:38 From Zip2 to PayPal to all the stuff he’s done now.
    1:10:41 So, the question is, what do those people have in common?
    1:10:42 Peter Thiel, right?
    1:10:48 Think of all the stuff he’s done across politics and the Thiel Fellows and the funds and Palantir and Facebook and all this stuff.
    1:10:57 The commonality that stands out to me across all those people is they tend to be pretty polymathic.
    1:10:58 So, they have a wide range of interests.
    1:11:04 They tend to be driven by a mix of stuff, not just money.
    1:11:07 So, of course, money is important and all the rest.
    1:11:10 But I think for a subset of people, it’s interestingness.
    1:11:11 For a subset, it’s impact.
    1:11:12 For a subset, it’s power.
    1:11:14 For whatever it is, but there’s usually a blend.
    1:11:17 And for each person, there’s a different spike across that.
    1:11:21 And the other, I think, commonality is almost all of them had some form of success early.
    1:11:31 Because the thing that people continue to underappreciate is kind of like the old Charlie Mungerism that the thing he continues to underappreciate is the power of incentives, right?
    1:11:34 The thing I continue to underappreciate is the power of compounding.
    1:11:40 And you see that in investing and financial markets, but you also see that in people’s careers and impact.
    1:11:46 And the people who are successful early have a platform upon which they can build over time in a massive way.
    1:11:50 They have the financial wherewithal to take risks or fund new things.
    1:11:53 And importantly, they’re in the flow of information.
    1:11:58 You start to meet all the most interesting people thinking the most interesting things.
    1:12:03 And you can synthesize all that in this sort of pool of ideas and thoughts and people.
    1:12:08 This is full circle back to almost where we started, right?
    1:12:17 Like how important is that flow of information to finding the next opportunity, to capitalizing on other people’s mistakes, to staying relevant?
    1:12:19 Yeah, there’s two types of information.
    1:12:24 There’s information that’s hidden.
    1:12:27 And there’s information that…
    1:12:30 So I’ll give you an example, right?
    1:12:36 When I started investing in generative AI, all these early foundation model things, et cetera, basically nobody was doing it.
    1:12:39 And it was all out in the open, right?
    1:12:41 GPT-3 had just dropped.
    1:12:43 It was clearly a big step function from two.
    1:12:46 If you just extrapolated that, you knew really, really interesting things were going to happen.
    1:12:48 And people were using it internally in different ways at these companies.
    1:12:54 And so it was in plain sight that GPT-3 existed out there, but very few people recognized that it was that important.
    1:12:56 And so the question is why, right?
    1:12:57 The information was out there.
    1:13:05 There’s other types of information that early access to helps impact how you think about the world.
    1:13:07 And sometimes that could just be a one-on-one conversation.
    1:13:10 Or sometimes, again, they could be doing things out in the open.
    1:13:16 And so, for example, all the different things that Peter Thiel talked about and it cites on like 10 years ago ended up being true.
    1:13:19 Not all, but a lot of them, right?
    1:13:21 So wait, let me go through some of these.
    1:13:29 So there’s, I found, I found information that is publicly available that you haven’t found.
    1:13:33 There’s, I weigh the information differently than you do.
    1:13:33 Yeah.
    1:13:35 So I weigh the importance of it differently.
    1:13:40 And then there’s access where I have access to information that you don’t have.
    1:13:42 Are there other types of information advantage?
    1:13:47 No, because I think the one where you interpret it differently that you mentioned has all sorts of aspects to that.
    1:13:48 Go deeper on that.
    1:13:50 Well, do you have the tooling to do it?
    1:13:52 Do you need a data scientist, right?
    1:13:53 It’s all the algorithmic trading stuff.
    1:13:57 All the information’s out there, but can you actually make use of it?
    1:14:00 There’s, do you have the right filter on it?
    1:14:04 Do you pick up or glean certain insights or make intuitive leaps that other people don’t?
    1:14:08 You know, there’s all the different, it’s sort of like when people talk about Richard Feynman, the physicist.
    1:14:14 And they said, with other physicists who won Nobel Prizes, they’re like, oh yeah, I could understand how that person got there.
    1:14:16 It’s this chain of logical steps and maybe I could have done that.
    1:14:19 They’re like with Feynman, he just did these leaps and nobody knew how he did it.
    1:14:26 And so I do think there’s people who uniquely synthesize information in the world and come to specific conclusions.
    1:14:34 And those conclusions are often right, but people don’t know how they got there.
    1:14:40 You’re bringing it back to clusters and all the stuff about information and how to think about it and how to interpret it.
    1:14:41 It’s all about being in a cluster.
    1:14:44 How do you go about constructing a better cluster?
    1:14:55 Like if you take the presumption that the material that goes into my head, whether I’m reading, you know, that’s one way I’m conversing, I’m searching.
    1:15:03 How do I improve the information quality through a cluster or not that my raw material is built on later?
    1:15:05 Yeah, I think it’s a few things.
    1:15:09 And I think different people approach your processes in different ways.
    1:15:15 And this is back to the best people somehow tend to aggregate or maybe best is the wrong word.
    1:15:24 There’s a bunch of people with common characteristics, a subset of whom become very successful, that somehow repeatedly keep meeting each other quite young in the same geography.
    1:15:26 And again, it’s happened throughout history.
    1:15:33 And so, A, there’s clearly some attraction between these people to talking to each other and hanging out with each other and learning from each other.
    1:15:37 And sometimes you meet somebody and you’re like, wow, I just learned a ton off of this person in like 30 minutes.
    1:15:43 And this was a great conversation versus, okay, yeah, that was nice to meet that person.
    1:15:44 They’re nice or whatever, you know.
    1:15:56 And I feel like a lot of folks who end up doing really big interesting things just somehow meet or aggregate towards these other people and they all tell each other about each other and they hang out together and all the rest.
    1:16:00 And so, I do think there’s sort of self-attraction of these groups of people.
    1:16:04 Now, the internet has helped create online versions of that.
    1:16:12 There’s been a lot of talk now about these IOI or gold medalist communities where people do like math or coding competitions or other things.
    1:16:17 Scott, the CEO of Cognition, is a great example of that where he knows a lot of founders in Silicon Valley.
    1:16:19 And one of the reasons they all know each other is through these competitions.
    1:16:25 And there’s a way to aggregate people growing up all over the country or all over the world who never would have connected.
    1:16:26 And then they connect through these competitions.
    1:16:29 And so, that’s become a funnel for a subset of people.
    1:16:37 So, the move towards the internet, I think, has actually created a very different environment where you can find more like-minded people than you ever could before, right?
    1:16:39 Because before, how would you find people?
    1:16:42 And how would you even know to go to Silicon Valley?
    1:16:46 Do you think it’s true that if I change your information flow, I can change your trajectory?
    1:16:53 And if so, what are the first steps that people listening can take to get better information?
    1:17:00 If you want to work in a specific area and be top of your game in that area, you should move to the cluster for whatever that is.
    1:17:00 Yeah.
    1:17:02 So, if you want to go into movies, you should go to Hollywood.
    1:17:05 If you want to go into tech, you should go to Silicon Valley, if you want to, you know, etc.
    1:17:11 And the whole, hey, you can succeed at anything from anywhere is kind of true, but it’s very rare.
    1:17:13 And why make it harder for yourself?
    1:17:14 Yeah.
    1:17:15 Why play on hard mode?
    1:17:15 Yeah.
    1:17:19 How do you think about that in terms of companies and remote work?
    1:17:31 Like, we were talking about this a little bit before we hit record in the sense of, you know, one of the things that people lose is the culture of the company and feeling part of something larger than themselves.
    1:17:36 How does that impact the quality of work we do or the information flow we have?
    1:17:42 There’s no more water cooler conversation where, like, hey, you know, in that presentation, you should have done this, not that.
    1:17:42 Yeah.
    1:17:43 No, that’s a great point.
    1:17:44 I think it’s interesting.
    1:17:53 If a company is really young and still very innovative, I think a lot of remote work tends to be quite bad in terms of the success of the company.
    1:17:54 Now, that doesn’t mean it won’t succeed.
    1:17:55 It just makes it much harder.
    1:18:00 And a company I backed, I don’t know how long ago now, 14 years or something like that, was GitLab.
    1:18:02 Which has done quite well.
    1:18:03 It’s a public company now, et cetera.
    1:18:08 And they were one of the very first remote first companies.
    1:18:10 And so when I backed them, it was like four people or something.
    1:18:11 I can’t remember, four or five people.
    1:18:13 They were fully remote.
    1:18:14 They stayed remote forever.
    1:18:17 And they built a ton of processes in to actually make that work.
    1:18:18 And they were brilliant about it.
    1:18:24 And they actually have all this published on their website where you can go and you can read hundreds of pages about everything they’ve done to enable remote work.
    1:18:30 Everything from, like, how they thought about salary bans based on location on through to processes and all the rest.
    1:18:37 And it was a very quirky, it may still be, culture where I’d be talking to the CEO and he’d say, oh, this conversation is really interesting.
    1:18:43 And he dropped the link to our Zoom into a giant group chat and random people just start popping in while we’re talking.
    1:18:44 Oh, wow.
    1:18:45 You know, and you’re like, who are these people?
    1:18:48 Like, we’re just talking about should you do a riff and like 30 people just joined.
    1:18:49 Like, is this a good idea?
    1:19:01 It was a very, and it probably still is, very innovative, very smart culture, very process driven, you know, very just excellent at saying, okay, if we’re going to be remote, let’s put in place every single control to make that work.
    1:19:03 So they’re very smart about that.
    1:19:06 I have not seen many other companies do anything close to that.
    1:19:13 And so I think for very early companies, the best companies I know are almost 100% in person.
    1:19:15 And there’s some counter examples of that.
    1:19:16 And crypto has some nuances on that.
    1:19:18 And, you know, which is a little bit different.
    1:19:22 But for a standard AI, tech, SaaS, et cetera, that’s generally the rule.
    1:19:29 As a company gets later, you’re definitely going to have remote parts of your workforce, right?
    1:19:30 Parts of your sales team are remote.
    1:19:32 Although really, they should be at the customer site, right?
    1:19:35 Remote should mean customer site or home office or something, right?
    1:19:37 It shouldn’t mean truly remote.
    1:19:42 But, and you always, even 10 years ago or whatever, would make exceptions, right?
    1:19:48 You’d say, well, this person is really exceptional and I know them well and they’re moving to Colorado and we’ll keep this person because we know that they’re, you know, as productive.
    1:19:51 They’re more productive than anybody else on the team, even if they’re not going to be in the office every day.
    1:19:57 Later stage companies, there’s this really big question of like, how much of your team do you want to be remote?
    1:19:58 How many days a week?
    1:20:07 And then is enforcing a lack of remote policy just also enforcing that you’re prioritizing people who care about the company more than they care about other things.
    1:20:07 Right.
    1:20:12 And each CEO needs to come and make a judgment call about how important that is.
    1:20:15 How much does that impact how they can participate in global talent?
    1:20:17 Because that’s often the question or concern.
    1:20:19 So there’s like a set of trade-offs.
    1:20:26 I mean, the argument for it, I guess, is like it’s more flexible for employees if that is part of what you’re optimizing for.
    1:20:31 But we can also hire world-class talent that we might not be able to hire otherwise.
    1:20:31 Yeah.
    1:20:34 And I don’t know if I 100% buy that, but it’s possible.
    1:20:40 I’ve been in the sauna at the gym with a number of people on like Microsoft Teams calls.
    1:20:42 Yeah, you can see people who are clearly not working.
    1:20:50 Now, the flip side of that is, you know, there are certain organizations that you knew people weren’t working very hard at before things went remote, right?
    1:20:58 Like some of the big tech companies before COVID, you’d go in and it’d be pretty empty until like 11 and then people would roll in for lunch and then they’d leave at like 2.
    1:21:08 And so one argument I make sometimes is that big tech is effectively a big experiment in UBI, universal basic income, for people who went to good schools, right?
    1:21:12 You’re literally just giving money to people for not doing very much in some cases.
    1:21:19 Do you think that that’s starting to change and the complacency maybe that caused that is starting to go away as we get into this?
    1:21:23 Like it seems like we had this, everybody was super successful.
    1:21:26 They all had their own area, but now we have a new race.
    1:21:27 Like we have to get fit again.
    1:21:32 You know, it’s kind of like the person who goes to the gym and never breaks a sweat.
    1:21:35 If you’re talking about fitness, you know, they lift away and they’re like, I’m going to get on my phone now.
    1:21:37 That’s what I feel like has basically happened.
    1:21:47 And so I think the reality is if you look at what Musk did at Twitter, where they cut 80% or whatever it was, I wouldn’t be surprised if you could do things that are pretty close to that at a lot of the big tech companies.
    1:21:49 That’s fascinating.
    1:21:57 One of the things that we talked about was sort of how the best in any field, there’s sort of like 20 people who are just exceptional.
    1:21:58 Go deeper on that for me.
    1:21:59 Yeah.
    1:22:00 So we were talking about clusters, right?
    1:22:01 So there’s geographic clusters.
    1:22:03 Like, hey, all of tech is happening in one area.
    1:22:07 And honestly, all of AI is happening in like, you know, a few blocks, right?
    1:22:09 If you were to aggregate it all up.
    1:22:14 So there’s these very strong cluster effects at the regional level.
    1:22:20 And then as we mentioned, there’s groups of people who keep running into each other who are kind of the motive force for everything.
    1:22:29 And if you look at almost every field, there’s at most a few dozen, maybe for very big fields, a few hundred people who are roughly driving almost everything, right?
    1:22:36 You look at cancer research, and there’s probably 20 or 30 labs that are the most important labs where all the breakthroughs come out of it.
    1:22:40 Not just that, the lineage of those labs, the people they came from was in common.
    1:22:47 And the people who end up being very successful afterwards are all come from one of those, or mainly all come from those same labs.
    1:22:49 You actually see this for startups, right?
    1:22:54 My team went back and we looked at where do all the startup founders come out of school-wise.
    1:22:58 And three schools dominate by far in terms of big outside outcomes.
    1:23:01 Stanford is number one by far, and then MIT and Harvard.
    1:23:07 And then there’s a big step down, and there’s a bunch of schools that have some successes, Berkeley and Duke and a few others.
    1:23:10 And then there’s kind of everything else, right?
    1:23:15 And so there are these very strong rules of like lineage of people as well, right?
    1:23:19 And oddly enough, you see this in religious movements, right?
    1:23:20 The lineage really matters.
    1:23:23 Schools of yoga, the lineage really matters.
    1:23:25 Like all these things, the lineage really matters.
    1:23:30 And so what you find is that in any field, there’s a handful of people who drive that field.
    1:23:32 And a handful, again, could be in the tens or maybe hundreds.
    1:23:33 And that’s true in tech.
    1:23:40 Like, you know, there was probably early on 20, 30, whatever, maybe 100 at most AI researchers who were driving much of the progress.
    1:23:42 There’s a bunch of ancillary people, but there’s a core group.
    1:23:45 That’s true in areas of biology.
    1:23:46 That’s true in finance.
    1:23:49 That’s, you know, and eventually most of these people end up meeting each other, right?
    1:23:53 In different forms, and some become friends, and some become rivals, and some become both.
    1:23:56 But it’s surprising how small these groups are.
    1:24:03 And a friend of mine and I were joking that we must be in a simulation because we keep running into the same people
    1:24:05 over the 10 or 20-year arc who keep doing the big things.
    1:24:06 Yeah.
    1:24:10 Does that mean those people are almost perpetually undervalued?
    1:24:14 Especially if it’s not a CEO and they’re running their own show, if it’s a researcher.
    1:24:22 If you take the hypothesis that maybe there’s only 20 people, 20 great investors, or, you know,
    1:24:28 20 great researchers, or 20 great whatever, but they’re employees of somebody else,
    1:24:30 then they’re perpetually undervalued?
    1:24:35 Because it’s like, no matter how much I’m paying you, it’s almost not enough.
    1:24:38 Because you’re going to drive this forward.
    1:24:39 Yeah, it depends on how you define greatness.
    1:24:40 Yeah.
    1:24:42 If somebody is the world’s best kite flyer.
    1:24:43 Yeah.
    1:24:45 No, seriously, though, right?
    1:24:48 Like, there’s going to be a handful of people who are the best at every single thing.
    1:24:50 But there’s not a ton of economic value created by that.
    1:24:52 Yeah, and so that’s the question, right?
    1:25:00 And so, you know, part of the question is, what is the importance of each person relevant
    1:25:02 to an organization or field?
    1:25:05 And then are they properly recognized or rewarded relative to those contributions?
    1:25:06 And if not, why not?
    1:25:07 And if so, then great.
    1:25:10 And so I think there’s a separate question, right?
    1:25:12 Of rewards, effectively.
    1:25:16 And rewards could be status, it could be money, it could be influence, it could be whatever it is.
    1:25:19 What else have you guys learned about investing in startups?
    1:25:25 So you had these clusters like, oh, you know, most people come from Stanford, MIT, or Harvard.
    1:25:26 Yeah.
    1:25:30 What are the other things that you’ve picked up that you were like, oh, that’s surprising
    1:25:34 or counterintuitive or challenges an existing belief that I had?
    1:25:37 Oh, I mean, I’ll give you one that challenges and then I’ll give you one that I think is consistent.
    1:25:40 Maybe I’ll start with a consistent one, which is back to clusters.
    1:25:44 We take all of market cap of companies worth a billion dollars or more that are private.
    1:25:48 And every quarter or two, we basically look at geographically where are they based, right?
    1:25:52 And traditionally, the US has been about half of that globally.
    1:25:54 The Bay Area has been about half of that.
    1:25:59 So 25% of all private technology wealth creation happens in one place, right?
    1:26:00 In one city.
    1:26:03 If you add in New York and LA, then you’re at like 40% of the world.
    1:26:04 Wow.
    1:26:05 Right?
    1:26:06 And LA is mainly SpaceX and Android.
    1:26:07 Yeah.
    1:26:10 So it’s very concentrated, right?
    1:26:14 That’s why when I see venture capitalists build these global firms with branches everywhere,
    1:26:15 you’re like, why?
    1:26:19 You know, like from a research allocation perspective, unless you’re just trying to, you know, have
    1:26:20 a specific footprint for reasons.
    1:26:27 And if you look at AI, it’s like 80 to 90% of the market cap is all in the Bay Area.
    1:26:29 Right?
    1:26:30 And so it’s a super cluster.
    1:26:33 And you see that going the other way.
    1:26:37 Like for fintech, a lot of the value of fintech was split between New York and the Bay Area.
    1:26:37 Yeah.
    1:26:41 So one aspect of it is these things are actually more extreme than you’d think for certain areas.
    1:26:50 And space and defense is roughly all, or was Southern California until SpaceX moved some of its operations.
    1:26:53 The counterintuitive thing is more tactical things.
    1:26:58 So, you know, there’s a few things that people say a lot in Silicon Valley that just aren’t correct.
    1:27:05 So if you look, for example, there’s this thing that you should always have a co-founder or an equal co-founder.
    1:27:11 And if you look at the biggest successes in the startup world over time, they were either solo founders or very unequal founders.
    1:27:15 So that, and there’s kind of examples to that, of course, but that was Amazon, right?
    1:27:16 Jeff Bezos was the only founder.
    1:27:19 Microsoft, it was unequal.
    1:27:21 And eventually the other founder left.
    1:27:26 You know, you kind of go through the list and there aren’t that many where there was true equality, you know.
    1:27:30 But it’s now kind of this myth that you should be equal with your co-founder.
    1:27:32 And I think there’s negative aspects to doing that.
    1:27:37 A second thing is, that’s a little bit counterintuitive, is reference checks on founders.
    1:27:42 So if you do a, if you get a positive reference check on someone, then it’s positive.
    1:27:46 If you get a negative reference check on a founder, it’s usually neutral.
    1:27:50 Unless people are saying they’re ethically bad or there’s some issue with them or whatever.
    1:27:52 But there’s two reasons for that.
    1:27:55 One is I think product market fit trumps the founder fidelity.
    1:27:58 And so like, you could be kind of crappy, but if you hit the right thing, you can do really well.
    1:28:01 But the other piece of it is it’s contextual.
    1:28:11 Like somebody who’s kind of lazy and not great in one environment may actually be much better when they have their, when they’re responsible and they need to drive everything.
    1:28:18 And, you know, as an example of that, there was somebody I worked with at Twitter who was a very nice person, but never really seemed that effective to me.
    1:28:20 He was always kind of hanging out, drinking coffee, chatting.
    1:28:24 And then a few years later, I met up with him and he was running a very successful startup.
    1:28:25 And I said, what happened?
    1:28:27 I mean, I said it nicer than that, right?
    1:28:28 Yeah, of course.
    1:28:29 Like, hey, like, it’s so interesting.
    1:28:30 You built this great company.
    1:28:31 Like, you know.
    1:28:32 He said, you know what?
    1:28:34 I finally feel like my ass is on the line.
    1:28:36 And that’s why I’m working so hard.
    1:28:37 And that’s why I’m so, you know.
    1:28:43 Now, in general, I think that the true giant outside success archetype is somebody who can’t tolerate that.
    1:28:44 Right.
    1:28:44 Right.
    1:28:46 They’re always on and they can’t help it.
    1:28:52 But there are examples where the context of the organization and the context of your situation really shapes what you do.
    1:28:59 When you invested in Andrel, what was your, you mentioned you had criteria and they checked it all.
    1:28:59 Sure.
    1:29:05 What was your mental, oh, if I’m going to invest in a tech forward defense company, it needs to have X, Y, Z.
    1:29:06 What was that criteria?
    1:29:18 Yeah, so Andrel happened in a unique moment in time where Google had just shut down Maven and defense had suddenly become very unpopular in Silicon Valley and people were making arguments that ethically you shouldn’t support the defense industry.
    1:29:26 And all the stuff that I thought was pretty ridiculous, because if you cared about Western values and you wanted to defend them, of course you needed defense tech.
    1:29:34 So I started looking around to see who’s building interesting things in defense because if the big companies won’t do it, then what a great opportunity for a startup, right?
    1:29:36 It seemed like a good moment in time.
    1:29:45 And it felt like there was four or five things that you needed in order to build a next-gen defense tech company because there was a bunch of defense tech companies that just never worked or hit small scale.
    1:29:49 Number one is you needed a why now moment for the technology.
    1:29:53 What is shifting in technology that the incumbents can’t just tack it on, right?
    1:30:00 Because the way the defense industry works is there’s a handful of players called primes who sell directly to the DoD and they subcontract out everything else, right?
    1:30:10 And if you’re not a prime and you don’t have a direct relationship, then you end up in a bad spot in terms of being able to really win big programs and survive as a company or succeed.
    1:30:14 So number one is what is the technology why now that creates an opening?
    1:30:17 For Anduril, it was initially machine vision and drones, which were new things.
    1:30:22 Two is, are you going to build a broad enough product portfolio that you can become a prime?
    1:30:23 Right.
    1:30:25 Which they did from day one.
    1:30:32 Third is, do you have connectivity slash ability to, you know, really focus on faster sales cycle?
    1:30:40 Fourth is, can you raise enough money that you’ll last long enough that you can put up with really long timelines to actually get to these big programs of record?
    1:30:43 And I think Anduril did their first program of record in something like three and a half years.
    1:30:44 It was remarkably fast.
    1:30:48 I think it was the fastest program of record since the Korean War or something, which is super impressive.
    1:30:55 And then lastly, the way that the business model for the defense industry works is this cost plus.
    1:30:56 Oh, yeah.
    1:31:03 So you basically make, say, 5% to 12% on top of whatever your cost to work the product out is.
    1:31:04 And that includes your labor.
    1:31:06 That includes every component.
    1:31:10 And that’s why there’s a very big incentive in the defense industry to overrun on time.
    1:31:11 Yeah.
    1:31:14 Because you’ve charged 10% on that time, right?
    1:31:16 So if something’s late, you make more money.
    1:31:18 And not have a cost incentive at all.
    1:31:19 You have no cost incentive.
    1:31:24 That’s why you have a $100 screw, because you make $5 on the screw that costs $100 instead of using a $0.10 screw, right?
    1:31:25 Yeah.
    1:31:32 And so the cost plus model is extremely bad if you want efficient, fast-moving defense industry, right?
    1:31:36 And they were really focused on trying to create a more traditional hardware margin business,
    1:31:44 where an example would be if Lockheed Martin sold a drone to the government for a million dollars and made 5% cost plus, they’d make $50K.
    1:31:52 If Anderil sold a $100,000 drone with the same capabilities of the government and had a 50% hardware margin, they’d make $50,000 too.
    1:31:54 But the government could buy 10 of them for the same price.
    1:31:55 Yeah.
    1:31:59 So the government gets 10 times the hardware or the capability set.
    1:32:08 Anderil gets 10 times as much margin if, again, that structure works, and everybody basically wins, right?
    1:32:11 And so I just thought that business model shift was really important.
    1:32:16 Why now, though, in the sense of why wouldn’t the defense industry encourage more competition?
    1:32:19 They know they’re paying cost plus.
    1:32:21 They know the screw shouldn’t be $100.
    1:32:26 Like, why didn’t they encourage this way before Anderil?
    1:32:32 Yeah, I think at the time, cost plus was viewed as the most fair version of it because you’re like, oh, just give me your bill of materials and I know exactly what it costs.
    1:32:33 And then you’ll just get a fixed margin.
    1:32:35 And so that’s more fair.
    1:32:41 And I know from my budgeting perspective, really, like how much budget I need to ask for, how much.
    1:32:41 Yeah.
    1:32:46 And I think in hindsight, maybe it worked in that moment in time, but it no longer seems applicable.
    1:32:50 And then the other thing that’s happened in the defense industry is there’s been massive consolidation over the last 30 years.
    1:32:56 And so a lot of the growth of these companies came through M&A, and so you had fewer and fewer players competing for the same business.
    1:33:00 And so that also means that it’s back to the oligopoly market structure that we talked about earlier.
    1:33:03 How do you see defense changing in the future?
    1:33:07 Like, is it less about ships and more about cyber and drones?
    1:33:16 And how do we see the future of defense spending in a world where what used to dominate is these like billion dollar ships?
    1:33:28 And now we’re in a world of asymmetry where, you know, for a couple million bucks, I might be able to hire the best cyber attack team in the world, or I might be able to buy a thousand drones.
    1:33:30 Or how do you think about that?
    1:33:33 Like, how do you think about defense in the next five, 10 years?
    1:33:44 Yeah, I mean, in general, defense is inevitably going to move to these highly distributed drone-based systems as a major component of any branch of the military.
    1:33:54 And it’s not just because it’s faster, cheaper, et cetera, et cetera, but also there’s certain things that you can’t do with a human operator inside the cockpit.
    1:34:05 So, for example, you have a plane, the G-forces that a human piloted plane can tolerate is much lower than if you’re just a drone and you don’t have to worry about people inside the…
    1:34:09 Plus, we must be at a point where AI can outperform a human fighter pilot, I would imagine.
    1:34:11 I haven’t kept up on defense.
    1:34:20 Yeah, there’s a few different contracts, both in Europe and the U.S., that are moving ahead around autonomous flight and autonomous drones and all the rest of it, autonomous capabilities in general in the air.
    1:34:31 You know, I think the thing that people have stuck to so far is if there’s any sort of decision that is involved with, like, killing somebody or hurting something, then you need a human operator to actually trigger it.
    1:34:37 And so that way you’re not turning over control to a fully autonomous system, which I think is smart, right?
    1:34:42 You don’t want the thing to do the targeting and go after the target and make all these mistakes, right?
    1:34:44 You want a human to make that decision.
    1:34:48 But we exist in a world where not everybody is going to follow those roles.
    1:34:50 That’s true.
    1:34:56 And then the question is, what’s the relative firepower of that group of people and how do you deal with them and, you know, what do you do to retaliate and everything else?
    1:35:01 I mean, in general, one could argue warfare has gotten dramatically less bloody.
    1:35:04 Oh, wait, go deeper on that.
    1:35:17 Well, if you think about the type of warfare that happened 150 years ago, or imagine if some equivalent to the Hooties was constantly shooting at your ships 100 years ago, what do you think the response would have been?
    1:35:19 Do you think you would have said, ah, don’t worry about it?
    1:35:29 Obviously, we’ve become much more civilized in our approach and very thoughtful about the implications of certain ways that people used to fight battles and all the rest of it.
    1:35:32 But the way that we deal with problems today is very different from how we used to deal with them.
    1:35:38 Is there an equivalent to Andrel, but in the software space, from a defense perspective?
    1:35:42 And I mean that as like cyber weapons or cyber defense.
    1:35:43 Who’s the best?
    1:35:45 Yeah, I’ve been looking around for that for a while.
    1:35:49 I don’t think I’ve seen anything directly yet, but it may exist and I may just have missed it.
    1:35:52 But I do think things like that are coming.
    1:35:58 And you do see some AI security companies emerging, which are basically using AI to deal with phishing threats or other things.
    1:36:03 You could argue material security is doing that, but there’s people working across pen testing and other areas right now as well.
    1:36:05 This has been a fascinating conversation.
    1:36:09 We always end with the same question, which is what is success for you?
    1:36:12 Yeah, you know, I’ve been noodling on that a lot recently.
    1:36:25 And I think if I look at the frameworks that exist and certain Eastern philosophies or religions, it’s almost like there are these expanding circles that change with time as you go through your life, right?
    1:36:35 Early on, you’re focused more on yourself and your schooling and then you kind of add work and then you add your family and community and then you add society.
    1:36:40 And then eventually you become a sadhu and you go off and you meditate in a cave in the forest or whatever.
    1:36:44 And different people weigh those different circles differentially.
    1:36:49 And, you know, a big transition I’m making right now probably is I’ve been focused a lot on work and family.
    1:36:55 And the thing I’m increasingly thinking about are like, what are positive things I can do that are more society level?
    1:36:56 Thank you.
    1:36:57 This was awesome conversation.
    1:36:58 Oh, no, thanks so much for having me on.
    1:36:59 It was really great.
    1:37:04 Thanks for listening and learning with us.
    1:37:09 Be sure to sign up for my free weekly newsletter at fs.blog slash newsletter.
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    1:37:36 Thank you.

    What if the world’s most connected tech investor handed you his mental playbook? Elad Gil, an investor behind Airbnb, Stripe, Coinbase and Anduril, flips conventional wisdom on its head and prioritizes market opportunities over founders. Elad decodes why innovation has clustered geographically throughout history, from Renaissance Florence to Silicon Valley, where today 25% of global tech wealth is created. We get into why he believes AI is dramatically under-hyped and still under-appreciated, why remote work hampers innovation, and the self-inflicted wounds that he’s seen kill most startups.  

    This is a masterclass in pattern recognition from one of tech’s most consistent and accurate forecasters, revealing the counterintuitive principles behind identifying world-changing ideas. 

    Disclaimer: This episode was recorded in January. The pace of AI development is staggering, and some of what we discussed has already evolved. But the mental models Elad shares about strategy, judgment, and high-agency thinking are timeless and will remain relevant for years to come.

    Approximate timestamps: Subject to variation due to dynamically inserted ads.

    (2:13) – Investing in Startups
    (3:25) – Identifying Outlier Teams
    (6:37) – Tech Clusters
    (9:55) – Remote Work and Innovation
    (11:19) – Role of Y Combinator
    (15:19) – The Waves of AI Companies
    (20:24) – AI’s Problem Solving Capabilities
    (26:13) – AI’s Learning Process
    (30:41) – Prompt Engineering and AI
    (32:00) – AI’s Role in Future Development
    (34:37) – AI’s Impact on Self-Driving Technology
    (40:16) – The Role of Open Source in AI
    (43:23) – The Future of AI in Big Players
    (44:23) – Regulation and Safety Concerns in AI
    (49:11) – Common Self-Inflicted Wounds
    (51:34) – Scaling the CEO and Avoiding Conventional Wisdom
    (55:21) – Workplace Culture
    (58:39) – Patterns Among Outlier CEOs
    (1:15:50) – Remote Work and its Implications
    (1:18:47) – The Impact of Clusters and Exceptional Individuals
    (1:25:41) – Investing in Defense Technology
    (1:27:38) – Business Model Shift in the Defense Industry
    (1:31:46) – Changes in Warfare

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