0
0
Summary & Insights
0:00:04 Support for the show comes from Public.com, the investing platform that lets you access
0:00:10 industry-leading yields, including a 4.1% APY you can earn on your cash with no fees or minimum.
0:00:15 Go to Public.com slash PropG to fund your account in five minutes. That’s Public.com
0:00:20 slash PropG. Paid for by Public Investing, all investing involves the risk of loss,
0:00:24 including loss of principal. Brokered services for U.S.-listed registered securities,
0:00:28 options, and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc.,
0:00:34 member FINRA, SIPC. Complete disclosures available at Public.com slash disclosures.
0:00:43 Let’s face it. Saving is hard. Knowing how to invest what you’ve saved? Even harder. But
0:00:47 whether you’re saving for today or building wealth for tomorrow, Betterment helps people
0:00:53 and small businesses make smart decisions with their money and put it to work. They automate to
0:00:58 make saving simpler. They optimize to make investing smarter. They build innovative technology,
0:01:04 backed by financial experts for anyone who’s ever said, I think I can do better. So be invested in
0:01:11 yourself. Be invested in your business. Be invested with Betterment. Go to Betterment.com to learn more.
0:01:14 Investing involves risk. Performance not guaranteed.
0:01:22 When I found out my friend got a great deal on a wool coat from Winners, I started wondering,
0:01:29 is every fabulous item I see from Winners? Like that woman over there with the designer jeans. Are those from Winners?
0:01:35 Ooh, are those beautiful gold earrings? Did she pay full price? Or that leather tote? Or that cashmere sweater?
0:01:41 Or those knee-high boots? That dress? That jacket? Those shoes? Is anyone paying full price
0:01:47 for anything? Stop wondering. Start winning. Winners. Find fabulous for less.
0:01:52 Today’s number, $5,000. That’s how much a man gave to each of his three girlfriends to try and figure out
0:01:57 who he should marry. One spent it on a glow-up, saying she’d always be attractive. The second bought
0:02:02 stuff for him, saying I’ll always be generous. The third invested in a Vanguard mutual fund, saying we’ll
0:02:07 always be financially secure. So, Ed, you know who he chose to marry? Who? The one with the biggest
0:02:14 tits. Listen to me. Markets are bigger than us. What you have here is a structural change in the
0:02:19 world distribution. Cash is trash. Stocks look pretty attractive. Something’s going to break. Forget
0:02:26 about it. Ed, how are you? Back with a bang. I love that joke. You know, just, I love how you go into
0:02:32 these virtue signaling, I’m 26 and a big deal. Like, I commit to you to report on the news,
0:02:37 distinct to the politics. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You hate that line. That is your least favorite line.
0:02:43 My commitments to the audience. As 70-year-old women on watching MSNBC touch themselves,
0:02:52 I commit to being more profane and more inappropriate. I want to dispel any likelihood I will
0:02:57 ever run for office, much less get hired or acquired by Comcast who should acquire us because we’re
0:03:03 actually growing the Prof G universe quite robustly. But anyways, how are you, Ed?
0:03:06 I’m doing very well. It’s good to have you back, finally. It’s been way too long.
0:03:07 It has been a while.
0:03:12 I mean, is this going to continue? Every year, I’m always surprised at how long you’re gone.
0:03:16 And by the way, every time you also, I know you get antsy.
0:03:16 I do.
0:03:20 Because you keep on checking in on the business and you think we’re not making money anymore.
0:03:25 So I’m starting to think maybe you shouldn’t be taking this long of a vacation. What do you think?
0:03:30 I really like not working and I’m really good at it. But I got to be honest, this time I did get
0:03:37 bored. I got antsy. I started harassing Catherine saying, what if we did this? What if we? And she’s
0:03:42 like, yeah, I got four podcasts to get out the door today. Leave me alone. What have you been doing?
0:03:45 What did you do in our… We closed the office for two weeks. What did you do?
0:03:52 I went to London for a wedding, which was great. I hung out with my family and good to see my
0:03:54 friends get married. And then I went to Sardinia with my girlfriend.
0:04:02 Oh, hold on. Daddy’s… Daddy, you’re still in the impressor mode. Wow.
0:04:04 And you’re not. You’re off to Ibiza every three weeks.
0:04:09 That’s just a rested adolescence. Back to you. So you went to Sardinia. I haven’t been there.
0:04:12 What’s that like? Sardinia is great. It’s very expensive. I’ve got to say.
0:04:18 It’s pretty unbelievable. I feel like that’s all of the Mediterranean at this point. I mean,
0:04:24 it’s all these Americans showing up to Ibiza or Mykonos or Sardinia or Capri, whatever it is.
0:04:31 And the prices are just out of control. An amazing time. But it was… I got to say,
0:04:40 it’s quite shocking. I will tell you that. But beautiful place. Great weather, obviously. Great
0:04:50 polity scene. Puerto Trevo’s. Really nice. But I mean, unbelievably expensive. There was a plate of
0:04:58 a dish. It was four dumplings. And guess how much it cost? I didn’t end up buying it, but guess how
0:05:01 much that cost? Four dumplings. A lot. How much? 125 euros.
0:05:03 Were they truffle dumplings or something? Nope.
0:05:06 Or did you get to eat them backstage with black coffee or something?
0:05:11 No, none of that. No one reports on it because no one feels sorry for it. But at the high end,
0:05:14 which you are now a part of, is you’re still trying to impress someone and you’re overpaid. But
0:05:18 the greatest inflation, I believe, has happened at the high end for a few reasons. One,
0:05:24 you can’t spin up Sardinia or a five-star hotel. They take 10 years to build. So even though the demand is
0:05:32 there, there’s just a finite supply. And the fastest growing demographic group are one percenters. And
0:05:39 then you layer in the following. Essentially, since COVID, people have figured out that experiences are
0:05:46 more important than things. Sales of luxury goods, actual things, hard goods are down. But dining is up,
0:05:55 I think it’s 4%, travels up 8%, and jet travels up 12%. So what do you have? You have this, it’s great to be a
0:06:01 five-star hotel or five-star restaurant, especially in the summer. And then the kind of the chaser on chaser
0:06:07 on chaser is that I noticed in Colorado, it was actually quite empty because of COVID. There’s all this pent-up
0:06:13 demand to go to Europe. So you have this influx of, you know, increasingly wealthy people who value
0:06:20 experiences into Europe into a finite supply of really high-end places. And the result is, I’ve
0:06:25 noticed it too, the prices are just outrageous. Outrageous.
0:06:34 And it’s, I noticed it in hotels. I was at the Rosewood in Sao Paulo. And, you know, Brazil is about
0:06:40 half the cost, or Sao Paulo is about half the cost of New York, and probably half the cost of major
0:06:47 metros in Europe. But if you’re looking to go to Ibiza or Mykonos or any hotspot south of France,
0:06:53 it’s extraordinary. I don’t, what’s interesting is I see wealthy people or wealthy people my age,
0:06:58 and I see young people your age. And I assume the people your age, their parents are paying for it,
0:07:03 that they’re rich kids. I can’t imagine, unless they’re, you know, world-class podcasters,
0:07:10 the people your age can afford that. Because it is, yeah, I’ve noticed that too, the inflation at the
0:07:16 high end is extraordinary. I wonder if we have reached peak Europe. I wonder if we’re sort of,
0:07:25 we hit the apex. Because my instinct now is, I mean, I had a great time, but do I really want to run it
0:07:35 back at that level of expense? Or would I rather just go to somewhere beautiful in the US? I mean,
0:07:39 this is at least what I’m thinking about for next summer. It’s like, why don’t I just go out west?
0:07:44 Why don’t I go, I mean, obviously, Aspen, I’m sure the prices are insane there too. But I don’t know,
0:07:49 I’m just, I feel like Europe, everyone’s doing Europe at this point. The prices have gotten so insane.
0:07:56 I mean, every American is going to the south of France or Italy on their vacation, or the one
0:08:03 percenters in America. And it’s, it shows. I mean, everyone, everyone you meet there is pretty much
0:08:10 an American. And the prices are just, I mean, at a certain point, it’s not really worth it. At least
0:08:10 not for me.
0:08:16 Euro fabulous places all over the world, the places that are really in demand, have kind of figured out
0:08:21 a way to almost coordinate. It’s almost like they collude and they create a certain price level. But
0:08:27 Europe is next level. Like you said, south of France, Ibiza, Sardinia, these places. You did
0:08:31 see about two years ago, and I thought this was fascinating, on Instagram, a bunch of people took
0:08:36 to Instagram and basically said that Mykonos had become ridiculous. And there were all these TikToks
0:08:46 of $34 margaritas. And supposedly, last summer, it was tourism to Ibiza and to Mykonos was way down.
0:08:52 And shockingly, places like Scotland went apeshit in terms of tourism. But supposedly, this last summer
0:08:58 was this hot girl summer where basically all the hot places are back in vogue again. But everything
0:09:03 catches up. Like I used to go to Cabo San Lucas, which I thought was a relatively good deal when I was
0:09:11 your age. I would go to a tacky place like Mazelan or I used to go. I think the best deal, if you’re
0:09:16 moving out of the, okay, I’m no longer trying to impress my girlfriend and I’m not allowed to go where
0:09:22 the hot girls are, then I would suggest that the place- Is that what happens?
0:09:30 Best value in luxury travel, hands down, is Mexico. Like the Rosewood Mayakoba or going to a great hotel
0:09:37 Cabo San Lucas or, you know, if you want to get more cultural San Miguel de Allende, there’s,
0:09:44 you can get five-star luxury in Mexico still at a relatively decent price. Other than that,
0:09:48 everything’s gone absolutely batshit crazy in terms of cost.
0:09:53 And it’s all of Europe, by the way. I think, I mean, it basically doesn’t matter where you’re going.
0:09:59 If you’re trying to be on the beach in Europe in the summer, you’re going to be emptying your
0:10:01 pockets. That’s just, it basically doesn’t matter anymore.
0:10:05 This is what you should do next summer and it’ll be crazy expensive, but it’s more romantic. You
0:10:07 should, and you should have talked to me. I know this stuff. You should have gone.
0:10:09 I was going to say, you should be my travel agent for next summer.
0:10:15 Yeah. Well, you never know. I need a job soon. So, um, you chose the one with the biggest debts.
0:10:20 Anyways, uh, go to Capri. Uh, I think that is spectacular. That’s the most romantic place in the
0:10:24 world. But by the way, if you say you’re going to Capri, your girlfriend’s going to think you’ve,
0:10:28 you know, you’re bringing, you’re going to put a ring on it. People don’t go to Capri just to hang
0:10:31 out with their girlfriend. That’s, that’s a tough one.
0:10:33 Okay. Well noted.
0:10:41 Moving right along. It’s like, okay, okay. What’s GDP growth in Switzerland? How do I get them off this?
0:10:44 Now I’m going to tell them she listens to the podcast.
0:10:51 Should we get into our interview with Ray Dalio, one of the most legendary investors of all time?
0:10:56 No, no, I’m not. I’m not done yet. Who was your favorite guest in August?
0:10:58 Guest on, on this podcast? On Prof G. Marcus?
0:11:02 No, your favorite guest on Rogan. Yeah. Favorite guest on this podcast.
0:11:07 I think Mark Zandi was pretty good. I mean, I love, I always love co-hosts with Josh Brown.
0:11:07 He was excellent.
0:11:12 He’s always great. But Zandi, Zandi was mine. He was really, I thought that was a very substantive podcast.
0:11:15 Really enjoyed it. Really enjoyed it.
0:11:16 So you’ve been tuning in then?
0:11:18 Yeah. I listen to all your stuff. I learn a lot. I like it. Actually,
0:11:24 actually, you and Claire do a decent job. Not a good job. Decent. Solid four. Scale of one to 10,
0:11:30 solid four. Solid four. Speaking of which, I don’t know how, I’m trying to think of a segue here.
0:11:33 Should we get onto our conversation with-
0:11:34 That’s not the right segue.
0:11:35 That’s not the right segue?
0:11:38 You want to say solid four out of 10 and let’s bring in our next guest.
0:11:41 Four out of four. Let’s bring in the most successful. Let’s bring in the most successful
0:11:43 investor in history. How about if we do that?
0:11:49 I love it. Let’s do it. Here is our conversation with Ray Dalio, global macro investor, founder of
0:11:55 Bridgewater Associates and New York Times bestselling author. Ray, so good to have you
0:11:58 on the podcast again with us. Thank you for being here.
0:12:00 Ed, so good to be with you.
0:12:10 So you have a new book out. I think that’s where we’ll probably want to start. Although I’d like
0:12:13 to get your reactions to a lot of things. You were just saying off mic that we are living in
0:12:19 interesting times, which I agree with. But we’ll start with your book, How Countries Go Broke,
0:12:24 The Big Cycle. If you want to go buy that book, it is out now. You can go buy it now. How Countries
0:12:30 Go Broke by Ray Dalio. Let’s start with this, Ray. How do countries go broke?
0:12:39 The credit system is like the circulatory system of the body. It brings credit, which is like nutrients,
0:12:47 to the different parts of the body. And if those credits are used to create incomes that can service
0:12:58 that debt, then it’s a healthy process. But when governments raise the debt relative to their
0:13:09 incomes and debt service accumulates relative to their incomes, it squeezes out spending. And you can see
0:13:18 that. You can measure that. And you see it, that squeezing out of other spending. And then that causes
0:13:25 eventually something that’s the equivalent of a debt crisis, or what I’ll maybe call a heart attack.
0:13:36 Also, there’s a supply and demand issue for countries, just like people. So when governments have a lot of debt
0:13:45 and want to run large deficits, what means they have to sell a lot of debt, they go to buyers
0:13:56 and they try to sell that debt. And one man’s debts are another man’s income assets. So those assets have to
0:14:04 provide an attractive real return and be a value. And when that doesn’t happen, not only do you have to sell
0:14:12 the new supply to fund the deficit, but you also have a problem. You might have a problem because
0:14:20 there may be selling of the existing supply. And when that happens, that puts central banks and central
0:14:32 governments in difficult positions, the economics and the debt for a country are the same as that for an individual
0:14:41 or a government, except the government can print money and they can grab money through taxes. So that puts them in the
0:14:50 position where they, when they have that imbalance, what they do is they print money and they buy the debt
0:14:59 to try to make up for that imbalance. And that lowers the real returns of those assets. And it lowers the value
0:15:09 of money, which the debts are a problem for. And so you get into the self-reinforcing cycle, including that central banks
0:15:19 have losses and have negative net worth, and then they have to deal with that cash flow problem. And so both central
0:15:26 governments and central banks find themselves in the position of creating debt to pay for their debts.
0:15:31 I think everyone probably has a specific country in mind while you are describing this, but
0:15:37 from my understanding, you’ve been looking at this throughout history. And before we get into
0:15:44 what’s happening in America, lots happening in America, I’m just, I’d love to hear more about
0:15:52 how this has played out in the past, perhaps in American history, but also perhaps among other nations.
0:16:00 This has happened throughout history in all countries, all times. The basic issue is,
0:16:08 you know, what is money and what is debt? That is a promise to deliver money. And is that money hard money
0:16:16 that actually gets delivered on? Or is that money fiat money or printed money that doesn’t get delivered on?
0:16:24 But if you go back through all history repeatedly, you always see that I can recount the times. 1971
0:16:32 was a good example of the breakdown of the monetary system when we went from promises to look to liver
0:16:38 gold that were defaulted on. And then we went to a fiat monetary system. All countries throughout all time
0:16:46 have dealt with this. And the reason I wanted to write the book is I wanted to show very, very clearly
0:16:54 the mechanics and symptoms of this problem so that one could understand it mechanistically and measure
0:17:00 it because we can measure it right now. For example, in the US, if you want, I’ll take you through what the
0:17:07 numbers are. But it’s important just some numbers I have in front of me. Our national debt in America is
0:17:15 currently $37 trillion. Our net interest payments are $900 billion per year. It is the interest is our
0:17:23 second largest federal expenditure. So when you look at America’s debt situation right now,
0:17:30 you talk about the big debt cycle. You talk about how countries go broke. How far along in the cycle
0:17:39 are we? How far along is America? This year, the government will spend about $7 trillion and it
0:17:50 will take in about $5 trillion. So it will spend 40% more than it’s taking in. And it really can’t cut
0:18:00 expenditures much. Having done a lot of that. The debt is now about six times the amount of money it takes
0:18:09 in. The amount of money that it has to come up with for next year is $12 trillion and that amount of
0:18:20 essentially debt it has to sell. That comes $1 trillion about is, which is half our budget deficit.
0:18:30 goes to interest. $9 trillion have to be rolled forward. It’s maturing. And then we’ll sell an
0:18:40 additional $2 trillion. So you have to sell a lot of debt. We’re now at a point where there will be an
0:18:48 adding to a lot of debt at a point that’s close to the edge. Because as we add to that debt,
0:18:57 then those numbers and that supply to man picture, uh, worsen past the point really of being able to
0:19:07 rectify it. So, because then what do you do? Um, I was in Washington and speaking with, um,
0:19:16 you know, top people in, uh, on both parties. And, um, the problem is really a political problem.
0:19:27 In the book, um, I explained that if there was a cut in the budget deficit to about 3% of GDP,
0:19:35 which could happen in three ways that they could stabilize the debt where it is. And those three
0:19:46 ways, um, of cutting the budget deficit to about 3% of GDP would be basically equally in taxes and in spending.
0:19:54 which would be up in total amount of taxes. Total amount of spending would be probably a 4% increase
0:20:01 in taxes and a 4% decrease in spending. That wouldn’t quite get you there. But what it would do
0:20:09 is improve the supply demand picture of the debt so that interest rates would come down
0:20:17 and interest rates. And interest rates coming down would be good for debt service payments because so
0:20:22 much goes to interest. That’s why interest is so important, but you can’t force interest rates
0:20:33 unnaturally down because then it discourages the holding of debt assets because it makes it a bad deal
0:20:42 for the, uh, creditor to hold those assets. That reaction, uh, both about everybody I spoke to agreed
0:20:52 with the numbers and the mechanics. And I’ve spoken to all most federal reserve heads and, um, other central
0:20:58 bank heads and treasury secretaries. And there’s agreement about that. The reason I say it’s political
0:21:06 is that the answer that I got back from those, um, in Washington who were dealing with it is that,
0:21:14 uh, they say, Ray, you have to understand that we have to make one, um, at least one, maybe two promises.
0:21:21 And those promises are first, I promise not to raise your taxes.
0:21:29 And second, I promise not to cut your benefits in order to get, um, elected.
0:21:37 And so that’s where we are on the financial conditions. I would say in the United States.
0:21:42 We’ll be right back after the break. And if you’re enjoying the show so far,
0:21:46 be sure to give Prof G markets a follow wherever you get your podcasts.
0:22:00 Support for the show comes from public.com. You might already use AI tools to refine your emails
0:22:04 and streamline your workflow. So why not see if it can optimize your investing as well. For that,
0:22:09 you can check out public.com. Public.com is the investing platform that takes your money as
0:22:14 seriously as you do. With public, you can build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options,
0:22:20 and more. You can also access industry leading yields, including the 4.1% APY you can earn on your
0:22:25 cash with no fees or minimums. But what sets public apart? AI isn’t just a feature. It’s woven into the
0:22:31 entire experience from portfolio insights to earnings call recaps. Public gives you smarter context at
0:22:36 every touch point. And the best part, you can earn up to $10,000 when you transfer your existing
0:22:42 portfolio over to public. Go to public.com/provg to fund your account in five minutes. That’s
0:22:48 public.com/provg. Paid for by public investing, all investing involves the risk of loss, including
0:22:53 loss of principal. Brokered services for US-listed registered securities, options, and bonds in a
0:22:58 self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA, and SIPC. Complete
0:23:01 disclosures available at public.com/disclosures.
0:23:07 Support for the show comes from LinkedIn. One of the hardest parts about moving to a new
0:23:12 city is finding your people. You can look far and wide, but it’s hard to find the people who just
0:23:17 get you. And the same goes for B2B marketers. Locating the right people who align with your
0:23:20 business and an audience that connects you with your product and your mission can make
0:23:25 all the difference. But instead of spending hours and hours scavenging social media feeds,
0:23:29 you can just tap LinkedIn ads to reach the right professionals. According to LinkedIn,
0:23:34 they have grown to a network of over 1 billion professionals, making it stand apart from other
0:23:39 ad buys. You can target your buyer by job title, industry company roles, seniority skills, and company
0:23:44 revenue, giving you all the professionals you need to reach in one place. So you can stop wasting
0:23:49 budget on the wrong audience and start targeting the right professionals only on LinkedIn ads.
0:23:53 LinkedIn will even give you $100 credit on your next campaign. So you can try it yourself.
0:24:06 Just go to linkedin.com/markets. That’s linkedin.com/markets. Terms and conditions apply only on LinkedIn ads.
0:24:13 As a founder, you’re moving fast towards product market fit, your next round, or your first big
0:24:19 enterprise deal. But with AI accelerating how quickly startups build and ship, security expectations are
0:24:25 also coming in faster. And those expectations are higher than ever. Getting security and compliance
0:24:31 right can unlock growth or stall it if you wait too long. Vanta is a trust management platform that
0:24:39 helps businesses automate security and compliance across more than 35 frameworks like SOC 2, ISO 27001,
0:24:45 HIPAA, and more. With deep integrations and automated workflows built for fast-moving teams,
0:24:50 Vanta gets you audit-ready fast and keeps you secure with continuous monitoring as your models,
0:24:55 infrastructure, and customers evolve. That’s why fast-growing startups like Langchain,
0:25:01 Ryder, and Cursor have all trusted Vanta to build a scalable compliance foundation from the start.
0:25:09 Go to vanta.com/fox to save $1,000 today through the Vanta for Startups program and join over 10,000
0:25:18 ambitious companies already scaling with Vanta. That’s V-A-N-T-A dot com slash Vox to save $1,000 for a limited time.
0:25:29 We’re back with Prof G Markets.
0:25:36 Isn’t this a kind of confirmation that sort of this 45-year strategy I would describe it? If you were to
0:25:41 describe America’s strategy, I would say, loosely speaking, the strategy has been to cut taxes.
0:25:49 that maintain spending, cut taxes, and our most productive, our wealthiest citizens, corporations,
0:25:54 will figure out a way to reinvest that capital because they’re more efficient and the growth
0:26:02 will compensate for the reduction in revenues. And it strikes me it just hasn’t worked in that if we’re
0:26:07 going to, if we’re going to fix this, as you said, is it cut benefits or raise taxes? The answer is both.
0:26:12 So what I want to get your thoughts on, and I actually am more hopeful that the American public
0:26:16 is ready for an adult conversation. So I want to throw some ideas at you. So the question is,
0:26:21 if we have to raise taxes, what would be the least taxing taxes? And I’ll throw a couple ideas at you.
0:26:29 Elimination or vast reduction in the ceiling on the estate tax exemption. You’re just not going to get
0:26:33 any, you’re going to be dead, so it doesn’t matter. And your kids aren’t much happier or less happier
0:26:40 if they get 3 million versus 5 million. That’s one thing. And then age and means test some of the
0:26:42 entitlements, specifically social security.
0:26:46 I think those two are reasonable. I think here’s the problem. And I’ve found that
0:26:54 that everybody’s into their particulars and they argue so much about the particulars. It’s like being
0:27:02 on a boat that everybody agrees is going to hit the rocks and that they need to turn the boat,
0:27:09 but they can’t agree whether to turn it left or right because they’re so hung up on their particulars
0:27:17 that… So, like, I believe, you know, take the 3% pledge. If you can’t agree on what to do,
0:27:25 then do it proportionately. I don’t, you know, I don’t really care. Get there. Okay. So,
0:27:36 you know, like, we can get into that, but I think please take the 3% pledge. Do agree to do it
0:27:44 proportionately or find some way that you do it because otherwise the arguing about it is going to lead us to
0:27:45 hit the rocks.
0:27:49 My understanding of economic history is every fiat currency has ultimately failed because of the
0:27:57 dynamic you’re talking about. Political pressure to not cut spending results in an inability to
0:28:03 raise taxes results in basically the failure you’re talking about. It kind of plays out everywhere.
0:28:10 What are you telling these guys? In addition to the pledge, what is realistic on the tax side?
0:28:14 What do you, I mean, what do you think could be, is it an alternative and minimum tax on
0:28:20 corporations and individuals? Is it reduction in exemptions? I mean, we’ve, it feels like,
0:28:25 it feels like either the market is going to address this in a very ugly, crude way,
0:28:30 or we’re going to have to get out ahead of it. And I, and your book is kind of saying it may be too late.
0:28:37 It’s likely to be too late to be a specific, what’s going to happen. They’re starting, they will soon
0:28:50 start to talk about, um, 26 and 26 is a midterm election year. And so it won’t be until after 26 that
0:29:02 the best you can hope for is a bipartisan commission in which, uh, both sides, uh, approach the question
0:29:11 and hopefully smart people then choose to do their engineering and their political negotiating to
0:29:20 come up with a plan that probably, um, you know, won’t be put into place. Cause commissions don’t
0:29:33 work that well, or if it does, we’ll be put in awfully late. So we’re all just playing with ourselves.
0:29:42 When we think about this idea of which one, it should be rather than dealing with which
0:29:47 things that there should be. There are all sorts of things that in particulars, which we can digress
0:29:54 into that can be done. I mean, just at the big picture, just figure it like, can you do 4%
0:30:00 one way or another in taxes? And if you had to do everything across the board,
0:30:07 because you couldn’t agree on anything, could you do that? Could you do 4%, um, on spending?
0:30:13 Could you do that? Even looking at that question of whether you could do that is interesting because
0:30:19 there are some things that cannot be changed or, you know, like, what are you going to do on,
0:30:27 on some things, but to start to look at it that way. And then you can go on to, is this thing better than
0:30:31 the other thing? But, you know, I can’t be optimistic.
0:30:35 But how does it play out? Say, say we don’t get our act together. We can’t come to an agreement
0:30:42 around a 4%. How does it, what, what economic history can you point to about what actually happens?
0:30:46 Is it when people say, well, they don’t show up at our debt auction, they show up,
0:30:50 they just demand higher prices, right? Well, how does this actually play out if we do nothing?
0:31:00 There’ll be actions by both the government and the marketplace. Um, the actions by the government,
0:31:11 um, some of which are, you know, in the works, um, is to try to lean on holders of the debt,
0:31:20 such as foreign countries and so on to buy debt and, uh, to, uh, not sell their debt. Another thing
0:31:28 will be, um, to shorten the maturities of the debt. Uh, when things get bad, there might be capital
0:31:39 controls and most likely there’ll be, uh, the central bank coming in and buying a lot of the debt,
0:31:48 which will depreciate the value of the money. So you would see that in the form of, um, the dollar
0:31:55 going down, but also other currencies, cause they have their problems going down gold prices going up.
0:32:04 It would be something like what happened from 71, you know, 1970. You know, if you, if you take the
0:32:13 late seventies, uh, when we had, uh, then, uh, the world was operating under a gold standard, which was
0:32:20 created in 1944 at the end of world war II, when they had to define what was the monetary order,
0:32:27 how would the system work? And that was, uh, gold, uh, backed, uh, the money or it was actually
0:32:34 thought of differently. They thought gold was money and all the money that we think of today,
0:32:39 like fiat currency was like checks in a checkbook that you would then turn in to get your money.
0:32:46 But when the checks in the checkbook, uh, or the checks outstanding were much greater than the
0:32:54 gold in the bank, the real money in the bank. And there was a turning in of that. Um, they couldn’t
0:33:00 cover it like all bank crises. There’s not enough money in the bank and they wanted it. Then there was
0:33:07 a pause, uh, in that up breaking of that promise to get the real money. So the bank, in this case,
0:33:14 the central bank defaulted and, um, devalued and printed money. So everybody would get their money.
0:33:23 And that’s why we had the stagflation period of the 1970s. The exact same thing happened in the 1930s.
0:33:32 So, um, on August 15th, 1971, president Nixon got on the television and announced that change in the
0:33:38 monetary policy, that breakdown of the monetary policy and going to a fiat monetary policy in, uh,
0:33:49 March of 1933, president Roosevelt got on the radio and announced this exact same policy because there
0:33:56 wasn’t enough hard money, not enough, not enough gold. And so that’s what it, you know, that’s what it
0:34:02 looks like. I would say that you are one of the first people to really popularize this issue.
0:34:09 At least in recent years, you are kind of the first one to sound the alarm. I mean, this latest book is
0:34:15 about the big debt cycle, how countries go broke, but a lot of your books and a lot of the stuff that
0:34:22 you’ve been writing and talking about is along this theme. And it was my view at the beginning of the year
0:34:29 that this was something that people everywhere in America, but also, and more specifically in
0:34:36 Washington cared about. And I really thought that because that was part of the Trump platform.
0:34:42 Um, there was a lot of talk about getting spending under control. Uh, we had Doge and the idea of Doge
0:34:48 was to get the spending under control. Um, regardless of how one might think all of that was handled,
0:34:54 that was the idea. I thought that people were on board with this issue. I thought that people cared
0:35:03 about this. Then I see this big, beautiful bill act and I learned that it will add four trillion to
0:35:05 our national debt.
0:35:14 Four trillion is the amount of the estimated increase from what it would have been the
0:35:20 amount of debt if the tax bill didn’t get modified and, and the tax cuts were rolled over.
0:35:22 Four trillion is that?
0:35:22 Yes.
0:35:29 No, no, no. The correct number of the amount of debt increase from the $36 trillion that you mentioned
0:35:37 before over the next 10 years is about 25 trillion, because just, just look at like we run 2 trillion,
0:35:48 uh, a year deficit. Okay. And that adds up on the compounded basis to about 25 trillion.
0:35:57 So the correct statement to make is that our debt will increase by about it probably will increase
0:36:01 by about 25 trillion, not about 4 trillion.
0:36:07 So we increased the debt by 25 trillion. I’ve also seen, I mean, I think that the higher the numbers,
0:36:14 the more confusing it gets. But one statistic that I think is very relevant, as you say, um,
0:36:19 we’re going to crowd out our ability to spend money on things that we need. As I said before,
0:36:23 we’re spending almost a trillion dollars a year just on servicing the debt. But because of the big,
0:36:29 beautiful bill, we’re going to double that to almost $2 trillion per year by 2034.
0:36:36 In sum, I thought we all cared about this. I thought that people in Washington cared about this. That’s
0:36:43 what everyone was saying. And yet here we are, this big, beautiful bill has been passed. And it’s
0:36:49 basically going to do the total opposite of what I thought we all were worried about.
0:36:55 And so my question to you as the guy who’s been talking about this and who’s been sounding the
0:37:02 alarm, are you not frustrated by what is happening in Washington right now? And when you go to Washington
0:37:06 and you talk to these people and you say, this is a problem. And they say, yeah, yeah, we agree.
0:37:09 It’s a problem. It’s, it’s really bad. I’m wondering if you even believe them.
0:37:12 First of all, I don’t get frustrated. I’m just analytical.
0:37:13 Fair enough.
0:37:18 I’m just, you know, it is what it is. And, and, and different people have different perspectives.
0:37:27 And I, I would say, I think that the problems are very well recognized and that the administration’s
0:37:37 point of view is that these things are problems. So, um, you have, uh, a renovation plan that they have,
0:37:46 which is tariffs will bring in tax revenue and they are bringing in big tax revenue and that,
0:37:55 uh, that will protect American businesses in various ways, um, and help in the budget deficit.
0:38:05 And they would say that, uh, uh, stimulation is required to raise the incomes to create the tax.
0:38:11 Just like, uh, Scott had mentioned, the best way to get out of this is through stimulation and taxation
0:38:22 and then leaning on other countries in various ways, partially to pay their expenses, uh,
0:38:35 to help to cut our expenses and, um, to encourage them with a big E under encourage them to invest in
0:38:45 the United States and, uh, by our debt. So I’m very non-partisan. Okay. I’m just trying to be analytical
0:38:54 and I, so I, I convey my pictures of these things as accurately as I can. And I wouldn’t do justice to our
0:38:57 discussion if I didn’t convey that perspective.
0:39:04 The key question then is, do you think that that strategy could work? I mean,
0:39:13 assuming these issues are being taken seriously and assuming that this is the way that we are to deal
0:39:20 with them. Um, do you think, do you think it’s going to work? Do you think that could get us out of the
0:39:27 hole if we’re so far along on this path of, of, um, you know, as you say, going broke?
0:39:32 Is this going to help us not be broke in the future?
0:39:38 I don’t think it’s going to get us there. I think there are some aspects to it that have a
0:39:45 lot of merit and there are lots of aspects to it that I would disagree with. And I think the real
0:39:52 problem of our country right now is the breakdown of the effectiveness of democracy.
0:39:54 Could you say more about that?
0:40:00 I’m going to preface it with something. I’m a practical guy. I I’m not an academic and what,
0:40:07 but I’ve studied history the first time that, uh, about the 1971 breakdown of the monetary system,
0:40:12 I was clerking on the floor of the not New York stock exchange. And I thought when Nixon made that
0:40:18 announcement that, uh, that was going to cause a crisis, I went on the floor of the stock exchange
0:40:25 and I saw the stock market up more than it was in, uh, decades. And that led me to study 19,
0:40:32 the P the prior devaluations. I never saw one of those before. And I learned that in March,
0:40:40 1933 Roosevelt made the same move. And I understood more of the mechanics of all of this. And that also
0:40:47 led me to understand how the debt problem existed. That allowed me to anticipate the 2008 financial
0:40:58 financial crisis and the, um, 2010 to 15 European financial crisis and do very well during that period.
0:41:05 I would say that there are five main forces that interact to drive everything. We’re talking about
0:41:13 about the debt mechanics. There is also a political mechanics, um, at that enters into this, the battle
0:41:19 between the left and the right. And when you get into a situation where there are irreconcilable
0:41:28 differences, then the system classically creates a type of great internal conflict in which the system
0:41:36 itself is in jeopardy. Okay. Democracy, one of the big problems of democracy is people vote for what they
0:41:44 want and you can’t maybe necessarily do what’s best for them sometimes. And we now have, we are now at a
0:41:51 stage where we have irreconcilable differences. And so how our system is working and the, uh, moves that
0:42:00 we’re seeing politically to get control, to get control remind me very much of the 1930s,
0:42:08 as does this debt situation. The third, as I said, there are five, the third great force that has a big
0:42:17 effect, um, is the international geopolitical world order. The way it works is, um, there, you know,
0:42:22 who’s in control of the order of the system, the world system. It’s always the powerful country. So
0:42:30 in 1945, we, uh, the winners of the war set the rules and the United States was the dominant power,
0:42:38 had 80% of the world’s money, gold, half the world’s. Anyway, it set the rules. Then what happens is rising
0:42:45 powers challenge the existing powers, and there’s no world court that resolves these things. And so you
0:42:51 have a great conflict and that requires military spending that requires that, you know, these
0:43:00 actions. So we are, uh, you know, as you can see, as you watch, um, in Beijing, uh, Xi and, and, uh,
0:43:09 Putin and Modi and the military parade. Okay. This is all part of the picture and there, and, and so it
0:43:16 enters into even to even the economic policy tariffs. One of the purposes of tariffs is to
0:43:24 be get independence because you need self-sufficiency in a world where you may be cut off or we might be
0:43:30 cutting others off in one in certain type of war and that’s financial. So that’s the third influence.
0:43:36 The fourth influence throughout history has been acts of nature. Droughts, floods, and pandemics have
0:43:42 killed more people than wars. And it’s a factor and it’s a big factor now. And it’s costly. It’s
0:43:48 estimated that the cost of that will be about eight trillion dollars a year for the world and a world
0:43:54 GDP that’s a hundred trillion. That’s a lot of money. And then number five in the force has always been
0:44:02 technology. In other words, man’s inventiveness of technologies have been revolutionary and raised living
0:44:08 standards as reflected in life expectancy, GDP per capita, and so on. And now we have,
0:44:14 we can’t have this conversation without talking about technology changes on this whole picture,
0:44:20 because now with the artificial intelligence and so on, does that create productivity miracles
0:44:26 that help to make that money, that problem, less of a problem? And what does it all mean?
0:44:34 So all five of those forces are interacting to create the dynamic that we now have and also raise
0:44:40 a lot of question marks because this is not a precise, not none of those things really can be thought
0:44:48 through so precisely. If you, as you look at the risks to America right now, and as you say,
0:44:53 your job is not only to analyze these risks, but also to bet on them, and you’ve had a good track
0:45:00 record. And, you know, you’ve gone through some of those risks. We have this debt crisis, an impending
0:45:07 debt crisis. We’ve got internal political conflict. We’ve got external conflict with China. One of the
0:45:16 the most geopolitical precarious times, probably in the last 50 years, many, many risks. What is your
0:45:21 number one risk? What is the thing that you are most worried about? What do you think is the biggest
0:45:26 threat to America and to America’s dominance in 2025?
0:45:42 First, human nature. Can we rise above our own selfish, fighting, possibly self-destructing or mutually
0:45:57 destructing tendencies to find the common solutions or the compromises to be able to not have
0:46:05 the worst of what is possible? I mean, so that’s, that’s number one. Number two
0:46:20 is in each country being strong and in it together. Okay. I believe if the United States is very strong
0:46:27 and healthy, that’s the best thing it can do. Okay. It’s the safest thing to be doing, but I think
0:46:37 that that can only come about by a us not fighting with each other so much and, um, and a strong,
0:46:48 strong middle and a strong middle, I mean policies that truly are effective in creating improvements,
0:46:56 like in education, like we have a problem. 60% of all Americans have below a sixth grade reading level.
0:47:04 So anyway, we have a problem with it. If you want to make a society successful, there are very few things
0:47:10 things you have to do. Um, I, I think that, um, we can’t do it with fighting with each other.
0:47:18 Uh, we have to be, we have to have a strong middle, a strong means also being able to enforce the things
0:47:26 that need to be done. That may be unpopular. Okay. Like dealing with this budget situation and the like,
0:47:31 I don’t know. You know, these are long shots, by the way, I don’t, these are the things that are necessary.
0:47:35 Stay with us.
0:47:54 Support for this show comes from DraftKings. The WNBA is on fire right now. And DraftKings
0:47:59 Sportsbook can put you right in the middle of the action. Right now, new customers can bet just five
0:48:08 bucks and get 300 in bonus bets instantly. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now and use code bird.
0:48:14 That’s code bird for new customers to get 300 in bonus bets instantly when you bet five bucks in
0:48:22 partnership with DraftKings. The crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. In New York,
0:48:29 call 8778-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY-467-369. In Connecticut, help is available for problem
0:48:38 gambling. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org. Please play responsibly. On behalf of Boothill
0:48:44 Casino and Resort in Kansas, fees may apply in Illinois. 21 plus age and eligibility varies by
0:48:49 jurisdiction. Void in Ontario. Bonus bets expire seven days after issuance. For additional terms and
0:48:54 responsible gaming resources, see dkng.co/audio.
0:49:03 As a BMO Eclipse Visa Infinite cardholder, you don’t just earn points. You earn five times the
0:49:08 points. On the must-haves like groceries and gas and little extras like takeout and rideshare. So you
0:49:12 build your points faster. And then you can redeem your points on things like travel and more. And we
0:49:19 could all use a vacation. Apply now and get up to 60,000 points. So many points.
0:49:23 For more info, visit bmo.com/eclipse. Visit us today.
0:49:26 Terms and conditions apply.
0:49:32 You can get protein at home or a protein latte at Tim’s. No powders, no blenders,
0:49:37 no shakers. Starting at 17 grams per medium latte. Tim’s new protein lattes.
0:49:40 Protein without all the work. At participating restaurants in Canada.
0:49:51 We’re back with Prof G Markets.
0:49:55 Ray, we’ve been drawing parallels between the current situation in the United States,
0:50:01 the United States in the ’30s. And I actually see as strong or stronger parallels. I’m curious if you
0:50:09 see the same comparison between the US now and ’30s Germany. And that is economic anxiety. We don’t
0:50:14 have a Weimar-like collapse. We have a collapse in the middle class. Political polarization.
0:50:22 Income inequality. Populist strongman appeal. That speaks for itself. All the scapegoating of
0:50:27 quote-unquote the enemies within. We’re not worried about Russian soldiers pouring over the border in
0:50:31 Ukraine or the CCP. We’re worried about your neighbor or universities or immigrants.
0:50:35 Media and information chaos. There was a lot of that back then. Same now.
0:50:44 And I used to hold out hope. Well, our institutions are stronger. And our leaders don’t have their own
0:50:52 private armies. And those two things now seem as if they’ve been compromised. So am I catastrophizing
0:50:58 here? Or is a deficit problem, quite frankly, small ball compared to what could happen here?
0:51:05 You can’t separate the financial from the political, which you’re talking about internal
0:51:10 political. And I agree with that. From the other three that I also mentioned, they’re all
0:51:22 reinforcing. Yes. We won’t use the terms because they’re evocative. But yes, Germany had an economic
0:51:30 crisis. And before Germany, there was Italy and places were not run on time. They said to make the
0:51:42 trains run on time. Will somebody make this thing work well? And so you had out of that the autocratic
0:51:54 leaders. Four democracies in the ’30s. Four democracies chose to have autocracies or dictatorships, however,
0:52:07 because of the great disorder and the great fighting. And so you saw that in Germany, Italy, Japan, and Spain.
0:52:20 And so we are at a time where Americans are saying, “Will somebody gain control of this situation?” And so when you
0:52:29 look at whether it’s Washington D.C. and the National Guard going into Washington D.C. and other things,
0:52:46 there is an appeal to a lot of people about that. And when we’re dealing with how this is working with democracy and the loss of trust in our legal system,
0:52:54 that is a belief that almost everything has been politicized. That you’re on one side or the other,
0:53:04 and you have to pick inside and fight for it. That is where we are. So I don’t think what you’re saying is incorrect at all.
0:53:13 Trey Lockerbie: Ray, one of my takeaways from your insights is almost that this is inevitable.
0:53:20 I mean, when we talk about the idea of cycles, the fact that this happens to many countries over and
0:53:25 over again, and here we are again, we’re in the big debt cycle once again. And the thing that you describe
0:53:30 of we’re all on the ship, we’re headed towards the iceberg, and people say, “No, we’ve got to go left.” The
0:53:34 other people say, “No, we’re going to go right.” And ultimately, we just crashed into the iceberg.
0:53:43 That’s kind of where I’m beginning to land on this debt issue. And also on the dominance of the
0:53:49 American empire itself. I’m starting to think, you know, this is kind of just the way it is.
0:53:56 And we can say that we’re going to get spending under control. Uh, we can say that we’re going to get
0:54:03 down to three or 4% as you put forward. But ultimately, this stuff is too difficult. Humans
0:54:10 are too selfish. Uh, there is too much conflict. And the way things shape out is the cycle just happens
0:54:15 over and over again. And so in a lot of ways, maybe, maybe we just resigned to that. I mean,
0:54:20 I’m not sure I want to go that far right now, but that’s kind of where I land on this. I’m wondering if
0:54:30 you would, uh, object to my landing there. Um, and if you think that’s kind of the situation we’re in,
0:54:34 what do we do about that? What do we do that about that as investors, as young people,
0:54:35 as professionals? What do we do about that?
0:54:44 I think, um, um, that we are most probably, um, headed in that type of a direction, but we also
0:54:52 know that there are things we can do. And, um, um, there are things that are happening that, uh,
0:55:01 should make us, um, not view that as a surety. What we should do is continue to use
0:55:10 my measures are measures that show these things and deal with it. Um, well, I have a, um, and that’s,
0:55:18 by the way, what we should do, I think is inject some understanding and worry into the situation,
0:55:23 which we’re doing now today. I have a principle. If you worry, you don’t have to worry. And if you
0:55:30 don’t worry, you need to worry because if you worry, then you will take care of the things that you’re
0:55:39 worrying about. And we have the capacity today to deal with all of these things. If the parties
0:55:47 involved can worry enough and rise above their self-interests to be able to deal with them well,
0:55:56 that’s a reality. There’s still choice. However, I agree with what you said. It’s not likely. And then
0:56:03 there are possibilities, you know, what does AI do and what do the other things do? Okay. So the answer
0:56:11 to the last part of your question is what does a person do? Okay. I think what, what a person, uh,
0:56:19 does is first of all, they know how to diversify. Well, in other words, I’d say whatever success I’ve had
0:56:26 in life has been more due to my knowing how to deal with what I don’t know than anything I know.
0:56:35 And so for that reason, I would say, you don’t want to concentrate bets. You want to have certain
0:56:43 proper diversification of your bets. That’s a whole other subject. One of the aspects of that is yes,
0:56:48 you do want to have a certain amount of gold in your portfolio or the equivalent of an alternative
0:56:56 money, but not so much that it’s your big dominant bet. Okay. But it diversifies your portfolio in an
0:57:04 effective way, because if the things we’re talking about happen, it also will mean that the other assets
0:57:12 in your portfolio that you’re holding, which won’t do well, will be protected by that position. So you
0:57:20 can structure your portfolio well. Now that’s a whole other session to discuss, you know, how to structure
0:57:29 a portfolio that’s well diversified in many things. Um, and I would say, um, very importantly is, you know,
0:57:34 what is money as a storehold of wealth? What money do we have as a storeholder wealth and give
0:57:40 consideration to that? And how do you protect yourself to have a real after tax return?
0:57:46 As for, uh, young people who are just sort of starting their careers right now, I would like to
0:57:53 get your advice. I mean, you are one of the great legendary investors of our time, but also a founder.
0:57:59 I mean, you, you started Bridgewater, you built it into the largest hedge fund in the world. Um,
0:58:03 and it’s a very interesting time for young people right now. You mentioned the, the AI,
0:58:09 and how technology is impacting us. Just a new study that we’ve been looking at, uh, which I will
0:58:16 just read off you right here. Entry level workers aged 22 to 25 in occupations, most exposed to AI
0:58:24 have seen a 13% relative decline in employment since 2022. So basically young people who are entering the
0:58:30 workforce right now, they are losing their jobs to AI more than anyone else. Um, I’m just wondering what your
0:58:34 advice to those people would be, and what would your advice be to young people who are starting their
0:58:36 careers in general right now?
0:58:46 There’s a, uh, a polarity that exists where, uh, if you’re among the best and the brightest,
0:58:56 nothing matters other than your talents to be successful, any business, those with the most
0:59:00 amount of money, their power is not even in the amount of money they have.
0:59:09 Their power is in identifying the most talented, capable people and enabling them.
0:59:15 Because think about where all this stuff is, has come from. There was no Nvidia. There was no
0:59:24 any of this. Okay. That all came from talented people enabled. Okay. So you want to, and it’s
0:59:30 really 1% of the population, 3 million people out of a country of 330 million people. There was really
0:59:40 like that 1%. If you’re in that 1% or even the 10% that’s around them, that you can, um,
0:59:48 do things together and take full advantage of intelligence and capabilities, do everything you
0:59:55 can to be close to them or be part of that. Because that is where, um, all things could happen,
1:00:01 including how to navigate the world we’re talking in. You know, you can navigate it because it’s not
1:00:06 happening everywhere. Not all countries are going to be at war. Not all countries are going to have
1:00:13 this. There’ll be places and things to do in all of those environments. And so be able to be
1:00:22 intelligent and be around those who are doing those things. Take full advantage of AI. Wow. It can answer
1:00:25 almost any of your questions and so on, but you have to do it well.
1:00:30 It sounds like you believe that the success of Bridgewater or at least Bridgewater’s greatest edge
1:00:37 was you recruited a great team. Yeah. People, culture, but, and then one other thing, every
1:00:46 decision that I made, I always thought, what were the criteria for making that decision? And I wrote
1:00:52 them down as principles. I’ve written literally like thousands of principles. And then I had them put into
1:00:59 computer code and then I tested them back to see how they would have worked in the past. So I’m having,
1:01:07 I’m executing a game plan. And so I’ve been doing AI in its various forms, but to be able to use that
1:01:16 power too. So I have experienced it. Yes. Who you’re around people and culture that’s destiny, um, meaningful
1:01:23 work and meaningful relationships where, you know, you’re on a mission to be the best with people who
1:01:28 are on that mission with you and you have the meaningful relationships. And, but to do that,
1:01:34 to achieve the highest level of excellence, and then yes, use the AI.
1:01:39 So what are you up to in the next 24 months? What do you want to accomplish professionally and
1:01:45 personally, what are you focused on? I’m at a stage in my life where I want to pass along whatever I’ve
1:01:51 learned and is benefit to others. I’m 76. So I want to pass along whatever I have that could be a
1:01:56 benefit to others. That’s everything that I’m doing. That’s why I wrote the book about the mechanics of
1:02:03 the debt. So people could study the mechanics. I love playing my investment game. Um, I’m now doing it for,
1:02:12 um, my family office and that, and then I’m, uh, making a platform for, uh, that everybody can do
1:02:18 that sort of thing. That would be my aspiration. That’s what I’d like to accomplish in the next 24
1:02:28 months. And of course, family, grandkids, savoring life. I hear you, brother. Uh, Ray Dalio is founder
1:02:32 of Bridgewater Associates and ran it for most of its 50 years, building it into the largest hedge fund in the
1:02:36 world. He is a long running New York times, bestselling author of several books, including
1:02:41 his most recent work, how countries go broke the big cycle. He received an MBA from Harvard business
1:02:47 school in 1973 and has been married to his wife, Barbara for 46 years and has three grown sons and
1:02:52 seven grandchildren. He is an active philanthropist. He joins us from where are you, Ray? In Greenwich,
1:02:57 Connecticut now. Nice. Well, we always, I think you’re now a four time guest on your fifth, you get a
1:03:02 jacket. So we’ll have you back soon. Oh yeah. What a thrill, right?
1:03:06 Right. Ray, really appreciate your time and good that you, good that you’re getting into good trouble.
1:03:09 Right. Thank you. Bye, bye. That was great. Thank you, Ray.
1:03:23 Scott, what’d you think? Well, you know, by virtue of the fact he’s been on four times,
1:03:28 we obviously think a lot of Ray and his accomplishments speak for himself, but I think he’s very civic minded.
1:03:34 I like how he grounds, you know, he tries to build frameworks, kind of the five influences.
1:03:41 I always enjoy hearing from him, trying to figure out how we move to the, the action part of the program.
1:03:46 Like what, can he put, can he, he has so many resources and such a big platform.
1:03:55 You know, could Ray potentially put forward bills and initiatives or ballot initiatives? Could he find
1:04:00 30 moderate candidates and quite frankly, just bankroll them the way Peter Thiel has? I mean,
1:04:04 what we need is we need a Peter Thiel that looks like, and sounds like, and behaves like Ray Dalio.
1:04:11 I’ve agreed with his concerns for many years. One thing that I did find interesting,
1:04:17 and I kind of get it because I think that he wants to, I think he wants to make things happen. And he,
1:04:20 I think he probably believes that he needs to be sort of friends ish with both sides.
1:04:26 But it was interesting to me that, you know, he said, I don’t, we don’t want to be evocative.
1:04:30 We don’t want to say things that would be, that was the word he used, evocative.
1:04:41 And I don’t know. I just find that, I found that notable that Ray, I think is doing a lot of work
1:04:48 to explain the actions of the administration. And again, fair enough, if you want to get stuff done,
1:04:51 you can’t just go around alienating everyone and making people your enemy.
1:04:58 But he was certainly doing a lot of work to steel man that side. I mean, the notion that the big,
1:05:05 beautiful bill, here’s the argument as to why it could actually bring down the deficit.
1:05:12 To me, it just doesn’t hold water at all. And who knows? Maybe he does think that it does have merit.
1:05:21 I don’t really buy it. And I think it’s notable that he’s putting in that work probably to stay friends.
1:05:25 I hope he doesn’t get mad at me for saying that, but that’s my read on it.
1:05:29 I think it’s an accurate depiction. And he’s, he kind of comes across as his very statesmanlike.
1:05:35 I just, my view is, and again, I don’t know if this is my anger talking, I think the reaching
1:05:41 across the aisle just hasn’t worked. And trying to understand the other side and what Trump voters
1:05:45 are thinking and what the rationale is and what if things go right. I just don’t think it’s working.
1:05:50 And it’s not, and by the way, it’s now, as far as I can tell, it’s never reciprocated.
1:05:58 So it’s like, look, this is, war is the wrong word, but this is a conflict and battle lines have
1:06:04 been drawn. There is a vision of America that is shared by most Democrats and what I would argue is
1:06:09 most traditional Republicans. This is no longer a nation controlled by the Republican party. It’s
1:06:16 controlled by a MAGA movement. And in some ways it’s a greater insult or more contrary to traditional
1:06:22 Republican ideals. Keep in mind, the initial founding fathers and the constitution were largely
1:06:26 sort of what you would call traditional Republican ideals, making sure there were checks and balances.
1:06:30 The government couldn’t move too fast. The government couldn’t intervene too much. That small government
1:06:37 by virtue of three co-equal branches of government. So from a purely theoretical or constitutional
1:06:42 standpoint, what’s going on here is more of an insult and more contrary to Republican ideals
1:06:47 and democratic ideals. And it feels to me that we aren’t going to have moral clarity around what
1:06:51 has happened here, the violation of the constitution, the weaponization of the Department of Justice,
1:06:58 the violation of people’s rights, the shipping of innocent people to black sites, the incredible,
1:07:06 first time in history we’ve been removing people’s rights, the grift, the corruption. I think there
1:07:10 needs to be more moral clarity about this. And I think that these people need to pay a price.
1:07:15 And I’m not one of these people who’s like, lock them up. But I think the level of criminality here
1:07:21 has been normalized. And that we aren’t going to get back to a sense of a great institutions and a more
1:07:26 resilient society and economy until we reconcile that. I don’t think it’s it’s trying to understand
1:07:31 them or reaching across the aisle and feeling their pain. Fuck that. This is war. And I use that word.
1:07:32 This is war.
1:07:37 Richard At a certain point, we can do everything we can to try to understand their argument. But at a
1:07:44 certain point, it just looks like lying. I mean, I do not believe that any of the policies that we
1:07:53 have seen enacted in 2025 have been any attempt to reduce the deficit and to reduce the national debt.
1:08:00 There is nothing that has been done that would indicate to me that that is a priority or of any
1:08:07 interest or of any meaning to this administration. And to be clear, they said it was. So we can try to
1:08:13 explain away and try to figure out how to justify, oh, maybe they, if you look about it, look at it from
1:08:20 this angle. Maybe that makes sense. Or you could just conclude they lied. They lied to get votes.
1:08:26 And that’s where I land on this. And I’d be interested to know what what Ray really thinks.
1:08:30 Maybe it is what he really thinks. I just I was a little skeptical.
1:08:34 I wonder if this is the price we pay for something you said really struck me when that was 60 percent
1:08:40 of U.S. adults can’t read at a sixth grade level. I mean, have we not purposely created a populace that
1:08:45 are it cracks me up when elected officials say, you know, but the American public are smart. No, they’re not.
1:08:49 No, they’re not. The average American can’t read above.
1:08:52 I like to believe that America is smart, but maybe you’re right.
1:08:58 I think we’re innovative and I think we’re hard, hard working. But I’m not sure if the average
1:09:04 American can’t read above a sixth grade level, I think it would be difficult to call us to call us
1:09:07 smart. We’ll get to the bottom of this. Something’s a foot.
1:09:09 I don’t want to get to the bottom. I want to get to the other side.
1:09:14 What’s on the other side and I’m ready. All right.
1:09:22 This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss and engineered by Benjamin Spencer.
1:09:27 Our research team is Dan Chalon, Isabella Kinsel, Kristen O’Donoghue and Mia Silverio.
1:09:32 Drew Burrows is our technical director and Catherine Dillon is our executive producer.
1:09:36 Thank you for listening to Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
1:09:41 If you liked what you heard, give us a follow and join us for a fresh take on markets on Monday.
1:09:54 Thanks for listening to Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
1:09:59 Thank you for listening to Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
1:10:01 Thank you for listening to Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
1:10:03 Thank you for listening to Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
1:10:04 Thank you for listening to Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
1:10:05 Thank you for listening to Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
1:10:06 Thank you for listening to Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
1:10:07 Thank you for listening to Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
1:10:07 Thank you for listening to Profity Markets.
1:10:08 Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
1:10:11 Thank you for listening to Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
1:10:11 Thank you for listening to Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
1:10:12 Thank you for listening to Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network Network.
1:10:13 Thank you for listening to Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
1:10:13 Thank you for listening to Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
1:10:15 Thank you for listening to Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
1:10:17 Thank you for listening to Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
1:10:17 Thank you for listening to Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
1:10:19 Thank you for listening to Profity Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Networks from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
1:10:21 Thank you for listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Liệu OpenAI có phải là một “lâu đài bài” kiểu WeWork, nơi những tiêu đề báo chí rầm rộ che đậy một mô hình kinh doanh vốn đã rệu rã? Đây là câu hỏi trọng tâm được đặt ra bởi nhà báo và tác giả Sebastian Malaby, người dự đoán có 50% khả năng công ty này sẽ cạn kiệt vốn hoặc bị buộc phải bán lại với giá rẻ vào mùa hè tới. Ông lập luận rằng bất chấp sự nổi tiếng, OpenAI đang bị kẹt giữa “tốc độ đốt tiền” không thể duy trì và một thị trường bán lẻ không sẵn lòng chi trả đủ để bù đắp cho chi phí vận hành tính toán và phát triển khổng lồ.


Cuộc thảo luận chuyển từ tài chính doanh nghiệp sang một cuộc chạy đua vũ trang toàn cầu, làm nổi bật một xu hướng đáng lo ngại gọi là “chưng cất” (distillation). Về cơ bản, đây là một hình thức đánh cắp sở hữu trí tuệ công nghệ cao, trong đó các nhà phát triển Trung Quốc truy vấn các mô hình hàng đầu của Mỹ để tạo dữ liệu huấn luyện, cho phép họ xây dựng các phiên bản “bắt chước” với chi phí cực thấp. Quá trình này giúp AI của Trung Quốc duy trì khả năng cạnh tranh bất chấp các lệnh cấm xuất khẩu chip của Mỹ, tạo ra một thực tế là các công ty Mỹ ngày càng sử dụng nhiều mô hình Trung Quốc giá rẻ cho các tác vụ không quan trọng.


Cuối cùng, cuộc thảo luận nhấn mạnh một sự chuyển dịch rộng hơn trong cách quản trị AI. Kỷ nguyên “đi nhanh và phá vỡ mọi thứ” (move fast and break things) của Thung lũng Silicon đang va chạm với một kỷ nguyên mới của sự cưỡng chế từ chính phủ. Với sự xuất hiện của các mô hình như Mythos của Anthropic—thứ có tiềm năng gây mất ổn định an ninh mạng tài chính toàn cầu—chính phủ Mỹ đã chuyển từ cách tiếp cận “để mặc” sang yêu cầu giám sát trực tiếp và phải có sự cho phép trước khi phát hành các mô hình. Malaby gợi ý rằng cách duy nhất để ngăn chặn một thảm họa toàn cầu là mô phỏng theo các hiệp ước không phổ biến vũ khí trong Chiến tranh Lạnh, hướng tới một thỏa thuận phối hợp giữa Mỹ và Trung Quốc nhằm ngăn chặn việc phát hành các mô hình “mở trọng số” (open-weight) vốn có thể bị vũ khí hóa bởi bất kỳ tác nhân nào.


Những góc nhìn bất ngờ



  • Vụ huy động vốn “đánh lạc hướng”: Malaby khẳng định rằng khoản huy động vốn 122 tỷ USD được báo cáo của OpenAI phần lớn là “vô căn cứ”, với hai phần ba là những lời hứa có điều kiện hoặc thanh toán bằng hiện vật (như quyền truy cập tính toán) thay vì tiền mặt thực tế.

  • Chưng cất như một lối tắt: Các phòng thí nghiệm AI Trung Quốc không chỉ xây dựng từ đầu; họ sử dụng phương pháp “chưng cất” để bỏ qua quy trình tốn kém khi thuê các chuyên gia con người (như nhà vật lý lượng tử) bằng cách đơn giản là truy vấn các mô hình của Mỹ để tạo ra dữ liệu huấn luyện cần thiết.

  • Chính phủ như một công cụ phòng vệ chiến lược: Đề xuất của Sam Altman về việc trao cho chính phủ Mỹ 5% cổ phần không được coi là một cử chỉ từ thiện, mà là một nỗ lực chiến lược để khiến OpenAI trở thành đơn vị “quá quan trọng để sụp đổ”, qua đó vượt qua cơ chế tư bản truyền thống.

  • “Giải pháp cực đoan” cho chính sách: Thay vì các lệnh cấm chip mức độ vừa phải, Malaby lập luận cho hai thái cực: hoặc là mở cửa hoàn toàn để tạo điều kiện hợp tác ngoại giao về an toàn, hoặc là đóng sập mọi lỗ hổng một cách tuyệt đối (bao gồm cả tính toán đám mây ở nước ngoài) để thực sự làm suy yếu đối thủ.


Bài học thực tiễn



  • Kiểm soát chi phí AI: Đối với các lãnh đạo doanh nghiệp, hãy tránh việc “tối đa hóa token” mà không có mức tăng năng suất rõ rệt. Hãy triển khai một “lớp trung gian” điều phối, gửi các truy vấn đơn giản đến các mô hình rẻ, token thấp và chỉ dành các mô hình tiên phong đắt đỏ cho những tác vụ suy luận phức tạp.

  • Đa dạng hóa sử dụng mô hình: Thừa nhận thực tế của thị trường “hàng hóa”; cân nhắc tích hợp hỗn hợp các mô hình cao cấp và mô hình chi phí thấp (bao gồm cả các mô hình khu vực chuyên biệt) để cân bằng giữa hiệu suất và ngân sách.

  • Ưu tiên sự ổn định của nhân tài: Học tập phong cách quản lý của Anthropic; tập trung vào một sứ mệnh rõ ràng do các nhà khoa học dẫn dắt thay vì những chiêu trò “tung hỏa mù” hướng đến bán lẻ có thể giúp giảm tỷ lệ biến động nhân sự và duy trì lợi thế kỹ thuật.

  • Theo dõi các thay đổi về quy định: Cảnh giác với vai trò ngày càng tăng của chính phủ trong việc “bật đèn xanh” cho các đợt phát hành AI; kỷ nguyên phát triển thuần túy tư nhân đang kết thúc, và việc tuân thủ quy định sẽ sớm trở nên quan trọng tương đương với năng lực công nghệ.


OpenAI 會不會是一個「WeWork 式」的紙牌屋,用巨大的頭條新聞掩蓋其根本失效的商業模式?這正是記者兼作家塞巴斯蒂安·馬拉比(Sebastian Malaby)提出的核心問題。他預測該公司在明年夏天之前,有 50% 的機率會耗盡資金,或被迫被低價收購。他認為,儘管 OpenAI 享有盛名,但它陷入了無法維持的「燒錢率」與一個不願支付足夠費用以抵消龐大運算與開發成本的零售市場之間。


討論隨後從公司財務轉向全球軍備競賽,重點提到一種令人不安的趨勢,稱為「蒸餾」(distillation)。這本質上是一種高科技形式的知識產權盜竊:中國開發者透過向美國頂級模型發問來生成訓練數據,從而以極低的成本構建「山寨」版本。這一過程使得中國 AI 儘管面臨美國的晶片出口禁令,仍能保持競爭力,甚至導致美國公司在處理非關鍵任務時,越來越多地使用更便宜的中國模型。


最終,這次討論強調了 AI 治理方式的更廣泛轉型。矽谷「快速行動,打破常規」(move fast and break things)的時代,正與政府強權介入的新時代相碰撞。隨著像 Anthropic 的 Mythos 這樣具有潛在能力動搖全球金融網絡安全模型出現,美國政府已從放任自流轉向要求直接監督,並在模型發布前獲准。馬拉比建議,防止全球災難的唯一方法是效仿冷戰時期的非擴散條約,推動美國與中國之間達成協調協議,防止發布可能被任何參與者武器化的「開源權重」(open-weight)模型。


驚人見解



  • 「障眼法」融資: 馬拉比聲稱,OpenAI 傳聞中的 1,220 億美元融資在很大程度上是「廢話」,其中三分之二是條件性承諾或實物支付(如運算資源),而非實際現金。

  • 以「蒸餾」為捷徑: 中國 AI 實驗室並非僅從零開始構建,而是利用「蒸餾」技術,直接向美國模型詢問以生成必要的訓練數據,從而繞過聘請人類專家(如量子物理學家)的高昂成本。

  • 政府作為戰略對沖: 薩姆·奧特曼(Sam Altman)提議給美國政府 5% 股份,這並非出於慈善,而是一種戰略嘗試,旨在讓 OpenAI 變得「大到不能倒」(too important to fail),有效地繞過傳統資本主義。

  • 政策的「極端方案」: 馬拉比認為,比起溫和的晶片禁令,應該採取兩種極端:要麼完全開放以促進安全方面的外交合作,要麼徹底、嚴密封鎖所有漏洞(包括離岸雲端運算),以真正削弱對手。


實務啟示



  • 審計 AI 成本: 對於企業領導者而言,應避免在沒有明顯生產力提升的情況下追求「Token 最大化」。實施一個「中間路由層」,將簡單詢問發送到廉價、低 Token 的模型,而將昂貴的前沿模型僅保留給複雜的推理任務。

  • 多元化模型使用: 承認「商品化」市場的現實;考慮整合高端與低成本模型的組合(包括專門的區域模型),以平衡性能與預算。

  • 優先考慮人才穩定: 參考 Anthropic 的管理風格;專注於由科學家主導的清晰使命,而非面向零售的「虛假繁榮」,可以減少員工流失並保持技術優勢。

  • 監控監管轉向: 密切關注政府對 AI 發布「綠燈」許可的影響力增加;純私人開發的時代正在結束,合規性很快將與能力同樣重要。


Ed and Scott are joined by Ray Dalio, global macro investor, founder of Bridgewater Associates, and New York Times bestselling author, who returns to the show to discuss how countries go broke and how far along America is in that cycle. He shares his insights on tax policy, what he thinks is the biggest threat to America’s dominance, and how things will play out with the deficit if we do nothing.

Subscribe to the Prof G Markets newsletter 

Order “The Algebra of Wealth” out now

Subscribe to No Mercy / No Malice

Follow Prof G Markets on Instagram

Follow Scott on Instagram

Follow Ed on Instagram and X

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Leave a Reply

The Prof G Pod with Scott GallowayThe Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
Let's Evolve Together
Logo