Lex Fridman Podcast
Nathan Lambert and Sebastian Raschka are machine learning researchers, engineers, and educators. Nathan is the post-training lead at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of The RLHF Book. Sebastian Raschka is the author of Build a Large Language Model (From Scratch) and Build a Reasoning Model (From Scratch).
Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep490-sc
See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.
Transcript:
https://lexfridman.com/ai-sota-2026-transcript
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OUTLINE:
(00:00) – Introduction
(01:39) – Sponsors, Comments, and Reflections
(16:29) – China vs US: Who wins the AI race?
(25:11) – ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini vs Grok: Who is winning?
(36:11) – Best AI for coding
(43:02) – Open Source vs Closed Source LLMs
(54:41) – Transformers: Evolution of LLMs since 2019
(1:02:38) – AI Scaling Laws: Are they dead or still holding?
(1:18:45) – How AI is trained: Pre-training, Mid-training, and Post-training
(1:51:51) – Post-training explained: Exciting new research directions in LLMs
(2:12:43) – Advice for beginners on how to get into AI development & research
(2:35:36) – Work culture in AI (72+ hour weeks)
(2:39:22) – Silicon Valley bubble
(2:43:19) – Text diffusion models and other new research directions
(2:49:01) – Tool use
(2:53:17) – Continual learning
(2:58:39) – Long context
(3:04:54) – Robotics
(3:14:04) – Timeline to AGI
(3:21:20) – Will AI replace programmers?
(3:39:51) – Is the dream of AGI dying?
(3:46:40) – How AI will make money?
(3:51:02) – Big acquisitions in 2026
(3:55:34) – Future of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, Meta
(4:08:08) – Manhattan Project for AI
(4:14:42) – Future of NVIDIA, GPUs, and AI compute clusters
(4:22:48) – Future of human civilization
#400 – Elon Musk: War, AI, Aliens, Politics, Physics, Video Games, and Humanity
Elon Musk is CEO of X, xAI, SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink, and The Boring Company. Thank you for listening ❤ Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – LMNT: https://drinkLMNT.com/lex to get free sample…
#399 – Jared Kushner: Israel, Palestine, Hamas, Gaza, Iran, and the Middle East
Jared Kushner is a former Senior Advisor to President Donald Trump and author of Breaking History. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – InsideTracker: https://insidetracker.com/lex to get 20% off – BetterHelp: https://betterhelp.com/lex…
#398 – Mark Zuckerberg: First Interview in the Metaverse
Mark Zuckerberg is CEO of Meta. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – LMNT: https://drinkLMNT.com/lex to get free sample pack – InsideTracker: https://insidetracker.com/lex to get 20% off – Eight Sleep: https://www.eightsleep.com/lex to…
#397 – Greg Lukianoff: Cancel Culture, Deplatforming, Censorship & Free Speech
Greg Lukianoff is a free speech advocate, first-amendment attorney, president of FIRE – Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, and co-author of The Coddling of the American Mind and a new book The Canceling of…
#396 – James Sexton: Divorce Lawyer on Marriage, Relationships, Sex, Lies & Love
James Sexton is a divorce attorney and author. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – Eight Sleep: https://www.eightsleep.com/lex to get special savings – InsideTracker: https://insidetracker.com/lex to get 20% off – House of…
#395 – Walter Isaacson: Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, Einstein, Da Vinci & Ben Franklin
Walter Isaacson is an author of biographies on Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, Einstein, Benjamin Franklin, Leonardo da Vinci, and many others. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – MasterClass: https://masterclass.com/lexpod to get…
#394 – Neri Oxman: Biology, Art, and Science of Design & Engineering with Nature
Neri Oxman is a designer, engineer, scientist, and artist working on computational design, synthetic biology and digital fabrication, previously at MIT, and now at OXMAN. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: –…
#393 – Andrew Huberman: Relationships, Drama, Betrayal, Sex, and Love
Andrew Huberman is a neuroscientist at Stanford and host of the Huberman Lab Podcast. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – InsideTracker: https://insidetracker.com/lex to get 20% off – Eight Sleep: https://www.eightsleep.com/lex to…
#392 – Joscha Bach: Life, Intelligence, Consciousness, AI & the Future of Humans
Joscha Bach is a cognitive scientist, AI researcher, and philosopher. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – Numerai: https://numer.ai/lex – Eight Sleep: https://www.eightsleep.com/lex to get special savings – MasterClass: https://masterclass.com/lex to get…
#391 – Mohammed El-Kurd: Palestine
Mohammed El-Kurd is a Palestinian writer and poet. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – Factor: https://factormeals.com/lex50 and use code lex50 to get 50% off first box – SimpliSafe: https://simplisafe.com/lex to get…