Lex Fridman Podcast
Nathan Lambert and Sebastian Raschka are machine learning researchers, engineers, and educators. Nathan is the post-training lead at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of The RLHF Book. Sebastian Raschka is the author of Build a Large Language Model (From Scratch) and Build a Reasoning Model (From Scratch).
Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep490-sc
See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.
Transcript:
https://lexfridman.com/ai-sota-2026-transcript
CONTACT LEX:
Feedback – give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey
AMA – submit questions, videos or call-in: https://lexfridman.com/ama
Hiring – join our team: https://lexfridman.com/hiring
Other – other ways to get in touch: https://lexfridman.com/contact
SPONSORS:
To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts:
Box: Intelligent content management platform.
Go to https://box.com/ai
Quo: Phone system (calls, texts, contacts) for businesses.
Go to https://quo.com/lex
UPLIFT Desk: Standing desks and office ergonomics.
Go to https://upliftdesk.com/lex
Fin: AI agent for customer service.
Go to https://fin.ai/lex
Shopify: Sell stuff online.
Go to https://shopify.com/lex
CodeRabbit: AI-powered code reviews.
Go to https://coderabbit.ai/lex
LMNT: Zero-sugar electrolyte drink mix.
Go to https://drinkLMNT.com/lex
Perplexity: AI-powered answer engine.
Go to https://perplexity.ai/
OUTLINE:
(00:00) – Introduction
(01:39) – Sponsors, Comments, and Reflections
(16:29) – China vs US: Who wins the AI race?
(25:11) – ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini vs Grok: Who is winning?
(36:11) – Best AI for coding
(43:02) – Open Source vs Closed Source LLMs
(54:41) – Transformers: Evolution of LLMs since 2019
(1:02:38) – AI Scaling Laws: Are they dead or still holding?
(1:18:45) – How AI is trained: Pre-training, Mid-training, and Post-training
(1:51:51) – Post-training explained: Exciting new research directions in LLMs
(2:12:43) – Advice for beginners on how to get into AI development & research
(2:35:36) – Work culture in AI (72+ hour weeks)
(2:39:22) – Silicon Valley bubble
(2:43:19) – Text diffusion models and other new research directions
(2:49:01) – Tool use
(2:53:17) – Continual learning
(2:58:39) – Long context
(3:04:54) – Robotics
(3:14:04) – Timeline to AGI
(3:21:20) – Will AI replace programmers?
(3:39:51) – Is the dream of AGI dying?
(3:46:40) – How AI will make money?
(3:51:02) – Big acquisitions in 2026
(3:55:34) – Future of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, Meta
(4:08:08) – Manhattan Project for AI
(4:14:42) – Future of NVIDIA, GPUs, and AI compute clusters
(4:22:48) – Future of human civilization
#240 – Neal Stephenson: Sci-Fi, Space, Aliens, AI, VR & the Future of Humanity
Neal Stephenson is a sci-fi writer (Snow Crash, Cryptonomicon, and new book Termination Shock), former Chief Futurist at Magic Leap and first employee of Blue Origin. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:…
#239 – Niall Ferguson: History of Money, Power, War, and Truth
Niall Ferguson is a historian at Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He is the author of 16 books on the history of money, war, power, and catastrophe. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:…
#238 – Francis Collins: National Institutes of Health (NIH)
Francis Collins is the director of the NIH and former head of the Human Genome Project. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – Ten Thousand: https://www.tenthousand.cc/ and use code LEX to get…
#237 – Steve Viscelli: Trucking and the Decline of the American Dream
Steve Viscelli is a former truck driver and now an economic sociologist at University of Pennsylvania studying freight transportation, including autonomous trucks. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – Shopify: https://shopify.com/lex to…
#236 – Jimmy Pedro: Judo and the Forging of Champions
Jimmy Pedro is a judo competitor and coach, world champion, 3x world medalist, 2x Olympic medalist. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – ROKA: https://roka.com/ and use code LEX to get 20%…
#235 – Michael Mina: Rapid COVID Testing
Michael Mina is an immunologist, epidemiologist, and physician at Harvard. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – Notion: https://notion.com/startups to get up to $1000 off team plan – Quip: https://getquip.com/lex to get…
#234 – Stephen Wolfram: Complexity and the Fabric of Reality
Stephen Wolfram is a computer scientist, mathematician, and theoretical physicist. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – ROKA: https://roka.com/ and use code LEX to get 20% off your first order – FightCamp:…
#233 – Carl Hart: Heroin, Cocaine, MDMA, Alcohol & the Role of Drugs in Society
Carl Hart is a psychologist at Columbia University. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – InsideTracker: https://insidetracker.com/lex and use code Lex25 to get 25% off – Ten Thousand: https://www.tenthousand.cc/ and use code…
#232 – Brian Greene: Quantum Gravity, Big Bang, Aliens, Life, Death, and Meaning
Brian Greene is a theoretical physicist. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – The Prisoner Wine Company: https://theprisonerwine.com/lex to get 20% off & free shipping – Blinkist: https://blinkist.com/lex and use code LEX…
#231 – Alex Gladstein: Bitcoin, Authoritarianism, and Human Rights
Alex Gladstein is the Chief Strategy Officer at the Human Rights Foundation and the Oslo Freedom Forum. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – Stripe: https://stripe.com – Paperspace: https://gradient.run/lex to get $15…