Lex Fridman Podcast
Nathan Lambert and Sebastian Raschka are machine learning researchers, engineers, and educators. Nathan is the post-training lead at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of The RLHF Book. Sebastian Raschka is the author of Build a Large Language Model (From Scratch) and Build a Reasoning Model (From Scratch).
Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep490-sc
See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.
Transcript:
https://lexfridman.com/ai-sota-2026-transcript
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OUTLINE:
(00:00) – Introduction
(01:39) – Sponsors, Comments, and Reflections
(16:29) – China vs US: Who wins the AI race?
(25:11) – ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini vs Grok: Who is winning?
(36:11) – Best AI for coding
(43:02) – Open Source vs Closed Source LLMs
(54:41) – Transformers: Evolution of LLMs since 2019
(1:02:38) – AI Scaling Laws: Are they dead or still holding?
(1:18:45) – How AI is trained: Pre-training, Mid-training, and Post-training
(1:51:51) – Post-training explained: Exciting new research directions in LLMs
(2:12:43) – Advice for beginners on how to get into AI development & research
(2:35:36) – Work culture in AI (72+ hour weeks)
(2:39:22) – Silicon Valley bubble
(2:43:19) – Text diffusion models and other new research directions
(2:49:01) – Tool use
(2:53:17) – Continual learning
(2:58:39) – Long context
(3:04:54) – Robotics
(3:14:04) – Timeline to AGI
(3:21:20) – Will AI replace programmers?
(3:39:51) – Is the dream of AGI dying?
(3:46:40) – How AI will make money?
(3:51:02) – Big acquisitions in 2026
(3:55:34) – Future of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, Meta
(4:08:08) – Manhattan Project for AI
(4:14:42) – Future of NVIDIA, GPUs, and AI compute clusters
(4:22:48) – Future of human civilization
#200 – Michael Malice: Totalitarianism and Anarchy
Michael Malice is a political thinker, podcaster, and author. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – Gala Games: https://gala.games/lex – Indeed: https://indeed.com/lex to get $75 credit – BetterHelp: https://betterhelp.com/lex to get 10%…
#199 – Roger Reaves: Smuggling Drugs for Pablo Escobar and the Medellin Cartel
Roger Reaves is one of the most prolific drug smugglers in history. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – Noom: https://trynoom.com/lex – Allform: https://allform.com/lex to get 20% off – ExpressVPN: https://expressvpn.com/lexpod and…
#198 – Sara Walker: The Origin of Life on Earth and Alien Worlds
Sara Walker is an astrobiologist and theoretical physicist interested in the origin of life. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – Athletic Greens: https://athleticgreens.com/lex and use code LEX to get 1 month…
#197 – Jocko Willink: War, Leadership, and Discipline
Jocko Willink is a retired Navy SEAL, co-author of Extreme Ownership, and host of Jocko Podcast. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – Linode: https://linode.com/lex to get $100 free credit – Indeed:…
#196 – Yeonmi Park: North Korea
Yeonmi Park is a North Korean defector, human rights activist, and author of the book In Order to Live. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – Belcampo: https://belcampo.com/lex and use code LEX…
#195 – Clara Sousa-Silva: Searching for Signs of Life on Venus and Other Planets
Clara Sousa-Silva is a quantum astrochemist at Harvard. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – Onnit: https://lexfridman.com/onnit to get up to 10% off – Grammarly: https://grammarly.com/lex to get 20% off premium –…
#194 – Bret Weinstein: Truth, Science, and Censorship in the Time of a Pandemic
Bret Weinstein is and evolutionary biologist, author, and co-host of the DarkHorse Podcast. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – The Jordan Harbinger Show: https://www.youtube.com/thejordanharbingershow – ExpressVPN: https://expressvpn.com/lexpod and use code LexPod…
#193 – Rob Reid: The Existential Threat of Engineered Viruses and Lab Leaks
Rob Reid is an author and podcaster. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – Athletic Greens: https://athleticgreens.com/lex and use code LEX to get 1 month of fish oil – Belcampo: https://belcampo.com/lex and…
#192 – Charles Hoskinson: Cardano
Charles Hoskinson is the founder of Cardano, co-founder of Ethereum, a mathematician, and a farmer. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – Gala Games: https://gala.games/lex – Allform: https://allform.com/lex to get 20% off…
#191 – Daniel Schmachtenberger: Steering Civilization Away from Self-Destruction
Daniel Schmachtenberger is a philosopher interested understanding the rise and fall of societies and individuals. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – Ground News: https://ground.news/lex – NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/lex to get free product…