0:00:03 You know what’s great about ambition?
0:00:03 You can’t see it.
0:00:06 Some things look ambitious,
0:00:07 but looks can be deceiving.
0:00:12 For example, a runner could be training for a marathon,
0:00:14 or they could be late for the bus.
0:00:15 You never know.
0:00:18 Ambition is on the inside,
0:00:20 so that goal to be the ultimate soccer parent?
0:00:22 Keep chasing it.
0:00:24 Drive your ambition.
0:00:25 Mitsubishi Motors
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0:01:00 This is No Mercy, No Malice.
0:01:02 After hearing this,
0:01:06 many listeners will accuse me of Trump derangement syndrome, TDS.
0:01:09 I believe I suffer from a different ailment,
0:01:16 DAS, Democracy Addiction Syndrome, and daddy needs his fix.
0:01:20 Today’s post is an updated version of one written a year ago.
0:01:24 While things have changed, a lot, since last August,
0:01:28 my argument not only holds up, it’s gotten stronger.
0:01:34 Art of the Plea Deal, as read by George Hahn.
0:01:42 It’s increasingly likely Trump will exit the presidential race
0:01:46 in exchange for an omnibus deal across jurisdictions
0:01:48 that keeps him out of jail.
0:01:51 The rise of Kamala Harris,
0:01:56 and the growing probability that the former president will lose in November
0:01:59 make the logic colder and more compelling.
0:02:05 Opinion polls show Harris ahead of or tied with Trump
0:02:07 in six of the seven critical swing states.
0:02:12 She’s beating him, for instance, in North Carolina,
0:02:14 which he just barely won in 2020,
0:02:18 and where Biden had been struggling even before the debate disaster.
0:02:24 It’s not the poll numbers themselves, which are all within the margin of error,
0:02:28 but the Harris Wall’s tickets momentum going into the DNC,
0:02:32 which historically provides a four to six point polling bump.
0:02:38 By the end of the month, Harris could have a high single digit edge
0:02:40 with nine weeks until election day.
0:02:44 This is similar to the margin that compelled Nancy Pelosi
0:02:49 to march up to the West Wing until President Biden to sign his resignation.
0:02:52 With his pen or his blood.
0:02:58 This May, Trump was convicted of 34 counts of fraud
0:03:01 by a New York jury in the Stormy Daniels case.
0:03:04 The weakest case against him.
0:03:07 Sentencing has been held up while he appeals,
0:03:12 and it’s unlikely he’ll see any jail time as a first time nonviolent offender.
0:03:16 The other cases, federal trials involving January 6th
0:03:19 and the allegedly illegal possession of classified documents,
0:03:24 and the Georgia case about trying to overturn the 2020 results there,
0:03:25 are different stories.
0:03:30 They’re much stronger, but have been delayed by Trump’s appeals
0:03:33 and moves to get judges and prosecutors replaced.
0:03:36 None of them will come to trial before the election,
0:03:38 and if he wins, they probably never will.
0:03:42 If he loses, though, he will face trial
0:03:46 and the real possibility of conviction and incarceration.
0:03:53 It’ll take time, but the gears of accountability and justice grind forward.
0:04:00 Harris has revitalized her party with a campaign that emphasizes youth,
0:04:02 optimism, and hope for the future.
0:04:07 She’s done this by saying, wait for it, nothing.
0:04:14 Trump has done her job for her as she continues his grievance/rage tour.
0:04:19 The age issue has turned from a bug into a feature for the Democrats.
0:04:24 The earth has shifted under Trump, and he’s stumbling.
0:04:29 Recent better inflation numbers and the likelihood of a Fed rate cut soon
0:04:31 will help Harris, too.
0:04:36 Also, somebody forgot to tell Trump he’s no longer running against Biden.
0:04:42 He’s ranting that the guy who dropped out weeks ago is “close to vegetable state”
0:04:47 and hallucinating scenarios in which Biden still gets the Democratic nomination.
0:04:52 If “get off my lawn” were an LLM, it would be the Trump campaign.
0:04:58 President Trump is an obese 78-year-old male.
0:05:04 The average 80-year-old has a life expectancy of another 8 years.
0:05:10 Trump’s obesity and prison would probably cut that in half,
0:05:15 meaning any sentence greater than 48 months is a life sentence.
0:05:21 Incarceration, balanced against a life post-deal of golf clubs,
0:05:27 sycophants, and porn stars, should weigh heavily on even the most delusional psyche.
0:05:31 How serious is the threat of prison?
0:05:34 Federal prosecutors rarely lose.
0:05:42 In 2021, 94% of defendants charged with a federal felony were convicted.
0:05:46 State and local prosecutors convict at high rates as well.
0:05:52 The Atlanta office, which indicted Trump, boasts a 90% conviction rate.
0:05:59 Of those convicted by the feds, 74% received prison time.
0:06:05 In cases from mishandling national security documents specifically,
0:06:09 the DOJ regularly obtains multi-year sentences.
0:06:15 And the documents case against the former president is notable for the weight of the evidence,
0:06:20 including audio of him sharing military secrets he admits weren’t declassified,
0:06:25 the sensitivity of the papers, and his blatant obstruction.
0:06:31 Offenses the DOJ and courts take very seriously.
0:06:36 It’s not any one case that cements Trump’s fate,
0:06:41 but the compounding risk of his several indictments.
0:06:47 Generally, defendants have a three-in-ten chance of escaping an indictment without prison.
0:06:54 A 30% chance of prevailing four times in a row is just under one percent.
0:06:58 That’s a one percent chance of not going to prison.
0:07:05 Okay, but Trump is not a typical defendant, and no case against him will be straightforward.
0:07:12 He has unlimited resources and can deploy the full apparatus of a billionaire’s legal defense.
0:07:19 In addition, there is a non-zero probability any jury will have a Trumper who refuses to convict.
0:07:26 Also, prosecuting each case presents obstacles, not least of which is the Supreme Court decision,
0:07:29 granting Trump immunity for official actions as president.
0:07:36 So let’s improve his odds of exoneration from three-in-ten to eight-in-ten.
0:07:43 Only a 20% chance in each case that he’s convicted and sent to prison.
0:07:54 The math is still ugly. 0.8 to the fourth power equals 0.41,
0:08:03 which means Trump has only a 41% chance of escaping prison, even when given exceptional odds.
0:08:08 The most favorable math still lands him in prison.
0:08:16 There are two get-out-of-jail cards. One, he retakes the White House,
0:08:20 or two, he, see-above, reaches a plea deal.
0:08:28 The prison vaccine is Trump winning the presidency, or another GOP candidate winning and pardoning him.
0:08:35 That resolves the federal charges, the greatest threats, and Trump likely believes he or some
0:08:42 other Republican president could shut down the remaining prosecutions. Note, if he were totally
0:08:47 focused on staying out of prison, he’d find a way to draft Nikki Haley to take his spot at the
0:08:54 top of the ticket. I believe she’d win, cause played Gerald Ford and pardon Trump. Think about it.
0:09:03 90% of the states are foregone conclusions. Pundits agree that only a handful of states will
0:09:11 matter. Harris only needs to win three of these states to take the White House, Michigan, Pennsylvania,
0:09:20 and Wisconsin. And the odds are looking good. Great, even. Biden won all three in 2020. Plus,
0:09:27 there’s the Sun Belt in North Carolina, where Harris is now ahead, reflects how change hasn’t
0:09:36 been good for Trump. He won the state in 2020 by 1.3%, but it’s in transition, a microcosm of
0:09:43 the broader challenge the GOP faces. Its base is older and whiter, and that population is giving
0:09:51 way to a younger, more diverse, better educated electorate. More likely to vote blue. Nationwide,
0:09:58 since Trump won the White House in 2016, 32 million young people have become eligible to vote,
0:10:04 and 20 million elderly voters have died, a swing of as much as 52 million voters.
0:10:10 These younger citizens vote in greater numbers than previous younger generations,
0:10:18 and they show no signs of becoming more conservative as they age. This will be the Gen Z, or Gen Zoom,
0:10:27 election. The closer we get to a Trump loss in 2024, the more his currency for a plea deal
0:10:34 diminishes. A loss would cement the notion that he has cost the party too much for too long.
0:10:41 Traditional Republican leaders are jonesing to see the back of Trump, and his acolytes now have
0:10:48 power bases of their own. Fox will abandon him. The cloud cover provided by Lindsey Graham,
0:10:55 Sean Hannity, and other sycophants will disappear, and the pool of jurors who’d refuse to convict
0:11:01 will shrink. He’ll also lose access to any backroom influence his political allies might
0:11:08 bring to bear on the DOJ or state and local prosecutorial offices. Trump won’t like making
0:11:15 the deal, but the decision will be easier than many people think. He has no observable ideological
0:11:22 commitment or loyalty to the Republican Party. In the 2022 midterms, Trump amassed a war chest
0:11:35 of $108 million and gave zero to GOP candidates. And he gives up all the time. His track record
0:11:42 is quitting. From his six bankruptcies, including the Trump Taj Mahal Casino, to his innumerable
0:11:48 abandoned projects, such as his defunct New Jersey General’s football team and the disgraced
0:11:55 education for-profit Trump University. And people who know him, including his former chief of staff
0:12:02 John Kelly and his former footstool Chris Christie, say he has a real fear of going to jail.
0:12:11 In some, Trump’s odds of landing in prison are perhaps 50/50 right now and likely to get worse
0:12:19 as we approach the election. Is there a deal to be had? It wouldn’t be easy, but the array of
0:12:23 prosecutors could work together to strike an agreement, for their own sake and the good of
0:12:30 the nation. A coordinated negotiation would be complex, but nothing precludes the effort.
0:12:38 The alternative is worse. Trials would be circuses, convictions would be subject to years of appeals,
0:12:45 and any ultimate incarceration would be a logistical nightmare. And when we step
0:12:52 back from the details of these cases, what should the US be seeking? Is it accountability?
0:13:00 Or for the nation to move on? The answer is yes, and a plea deal achieves this.
0:13:08 There’s a broader lesson here. Our successes and failures are not a function of probability,
0:13:17 but patterns. Our actions, like interest, compound. A single-kind act may go unnoticed,
0:13:25 but kindness fosters enduring relationships and goodwill. Criminal acts may or may not
0:13:33 may or may not result in punishment, but criminality screams for justice’s attention,
0:13:39 and justice, while slow to act, is always listening.
0:13:45 Life is so rich.
0:13:55 [Music]