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0:01:55 – Today’s number, $8 million.
0:01:57 So that’s how much a 30 second ad spot
0:01:58 on the Super Bowl costs this year,
0:02:00 an all time record.
0:02:03 Ed, nothing says American exceptionalism,
0:02:05 like four hours of beer,
0:02:07 boner pill ads, and men giving each other CTE
0:02:08 for our entertainment.
0:02:11 It’s essentially Rome, but instead of Lyons,
0:02:13 we have Taylor Swift, Ed.
0:02:14 We have Taylor Swift.
0:02:17 (upbeat music)
0:02:21 (singing in foreign language)
0:02:27 – Welcome to Prop G Markets.
0:02:31 That was sort of a thoughtful Super Bowl themed intro.
0:02:33 Banter, Super Bowl, do you care?
0:02:35 – No, I don’t care at all, actually.
0:02:37 And this is the first year I’ve decided
0:02:38 I’m just not watching.
0:02:40 I feel like I’m always watching
0:02:41 because I feel like I have to,
0:02:43 but I’ve just decided, you know what?
0:02:44 I’m not interested in the NFL,
0:02:45 I’m not gonna watch this year.
0:02:46 Are you watching?
0:02:48 I don’t even know who’s in the,
0:02:49 Claire, do you know who’s in the Super Bowl?
0:02:51 By the way, Claire, I have a,
0:02:53 oh my God, I just realized you’re in my house, Claire.
0:02:56 I literally thought she has the same climbing wall I have.
0:02:58 – Yeah, this is your house.
0:02:59 – Claire, how are you?
0:03:01 – I’m really good, it’s good to see you.
0:03:04 – Welcome, welcome, don’t touch anything.
0:03:06 – Thanks so much for having me.
0:03:07 – Anyways.
0:03:09 – Yeah, you have a climbing wall in your house.
0:03:10 – You’re in the kids’ room.
0:03:12 I do have a climbing wall, and my kids have climbed,
0:03:14 my kids climbed for a good 30 minutes,
0:03:15 and now it’s just a decorative piece.
0:03:16 (laughing)
0:03:19 Cost me about 40 zip recruiter ads.
0:03:20 – By the way, I think it’s Chiefs and Eagles.
0:03:21 – That’s right, Chiefs and Eagles.
0:03:23 – Chiefs and Eagles.
0:03:25 – I thought you used to be a big NFL fan, Scott, no?
0:03:28 – I’ve never actually been a sports fan until my kids.
0:03:31 I decided to give up golf and watching all sports
0:03:32 and poured into fitness,
0:03:35 in trying to spend more time with clients,
0:03:37 such that we could develop a father-son
0:03:38 parasocial relationship,
0:03:40 and they’d pay me millions of dollars to consult,
0:03:45 and then I could at some point buy one quart of a golf stream.
0:03:46 – You know what I’m doing tonight?
0:03:47 I think I’m gonna do ketamine tonight.
0:03:48 – Really?
0:03:50 – I went out with some friends last night,
0:03:51 and they were having such a good time,
0:03:52 and I’m like, “What are you drinking?”
0:03:54 They’re like, “Oh no, we don’t drink raw ketamine.”
0:03:55 I’m like, “Really?”
0:03:58 And I’m having trouble, Ed.
0:04:00 I’m having trouble disassociating.
0:04:02 I think we’re in the middle of a second insurrection,
0:04:03 and no one’s talking about it,
0:04:05 and it’s freaked me out and got me really upset.
0:04:07 So I think I need to disassociate,
0:04:10 and I’m hearing good things about ketamine.
0:04:12 Do your friends do ketamine, Ed?
0:04:14 – Yeah, good amount of my friends do ketamine.
0:04:15 I can’t tell if you’re serious,
0:04:17 so you know it’s illegal to just do it.
0:04:19 – There’s a few things I do that are illegal,
0:04:21 and I continue to engage in them, Ed.
0:04:24 – Okay, just making sure you’re clear.
0:04:25 I know you did it the legal way.
0:04:28 – Hot’s legal now, so yeah, edibles are legal,
0:04:29 so that’s not a problem.
0:04:30 – Right, yeah, exactly.
0:04:32 – Actually, I don’t do that much that’s illegal.
0:04:35 – And the way people do it is they snort it.
0:04:36 You’re really gonna go up and–
0:04:38 – Oh, really?
0:04:39 I was hoping to stick something up with my hand.
0:04:41 I was hoping to find an attractive one
0:04:42 with some gloves handy.
0:04:45 (laughing)
0:04:48 I have to pay for that, I have to pay.
0:04:52 Now, now cough, Nurse Ratchet, anyways.
0:04:55 – Well, I’m excited to see you in a couple of hours.
0:04:58 I’m gonna come over and hang out at your house.
0:04:59 – Oh, that’s right, I have a team meeting,
0:05:01 you’re all presenting your business plan.
0:05:02 – You excited to see me?
0:05:03 (crickets chirping)
0:05:05 – Get to the headlines, Ed.
0:05:08 – Let’s start with our weekly review of market vitals.
0:05:10 (upbeat music)
0:05:13 (upbeat music)
0:05:17 The S&P 500 inched up throughout the week.
0:05:19 The dollar declined, Bitcoin was volatile,
0:05:22 and the yield on tenure treasuries dropped.
0:05:23 Shifting to the headlines.
0:05:25 Disney earnings beat expectations
0:05:26 on the top and bottom lines.
0:05:30 However, Disney Plus lost 700,000 subscribers
0:05:34 with another modest drop expected in the current quarter.
0:05:37 The stock fell 4% following that earnings report.
0:05:40 Novo Nordisk saw strong fourth quarter demand
0:05:42 for its weight loss drugs with Wigowi sales
0:05:44 more than doubling, and Osempic sales
0:05:45 rising 12% year over year.
0:05:48 Profits also exceeded analyst expectations
0:05:51 up 29% from a year earlier.
0:05:53 The stock rose on that news.
0:05:55 And finally, Uber’s fourth quarter revenue
0:05:59 beat expectations, rising 20% year over year.
0:06:02 However, operating income was lower than expected,
0:06:05 and the company issued weak booking guidance
0:06:09 for the current quarter, and Uber’s stock fell 7%.
0:06:11 Scott, your reactions,
0:06:14 starting with Disney’s earnings a beat,
0:06:16 but the stock did fall.
0:06:18 – It’s clear who the number one is in streaming,
0:06:20 but they’re all fighting to be number two.
0:06:23 They’re like, okay, the number two will survive,
0:06:25 and it’s not entirely clear who’s number two.
0:06:29 And the race for number two is between, in my opinion,
0:06:32 the artisanal sort of HBO that’s created
0:06:35 an incredible culture that produces kind of the water cooler
0:06:37 zeitgeist moment of content.
0:06:40 And then Disney, which has just such singular
0:06:42 clear positioning around family,
0:06:44 and then bundling Hulu and ESPN.
0:06:46 I think it’s ESPN plus.
0:06:47 It’s a pretty good offering.
0:06:51 Now, they were able to raise prices of 4%,
0:06:52 which isn’t a huge price increase,
0:06:53 but it is a price increase.
0:06:56 And basically they lost 700,000,
0:06:58 but they would argue that’s flat.
0:07:00 That does kind of communicate
0:07:01 that they have some pricing power.
0:07:03 I would argue that’s a good thing.
0:07:06 Netflix’s churn is 2% while Disney’s is five.
0:07:09 That may not sound like a lot, but it’s huge.
0:07:11 It means that every three years,
0:07:14 Disney has to reinvent their entire customer base
0:07:16 that Netflix does not.
0:07:22 In addition, you have this incredible transfer
0:07:23 or means of production.
0:07:24 What do I mean?
0:07:28 What Japan did Detroit, Netflix is doing to Hollywood.
0:07:31 And that is Netflix announced that the majority
0:07:34 of their content, more than 50% of their $15 to $18 billion
0:07:38 investment on content is being spent and/or,
0:07:40 if you will, produced overseas.
0:07:43 They’re not doing that because they like Spanish people
0:07:46 or they want more multiculturalism in their content.
0:07:48 They’re doing it because they figured out
0:07:52 they can get a gaffer, a writer, an actor,
0:07:57 a producer, sound engineer, studio construction folks
0:08:03 for 40 to 60% of the cost of what it is in the US.
0:08:07 Whereas Disney, the percentage of content spend overseas
0:08:08 is 4%.
0:08:12 But what Netflix has said is that if I have every week,
0:08:16 not a 10, but I have just a shit ton of sevens and eights,
0:08:17 people don’t cancel.
0:08:20 – Yeah, I think these earnings, I mean,
0:08:22 Wall Street did not react well to these earnings.
0:08:25 And I think rightly so because I think this was just
0:08:26 unimpressive on so many levels.
0:08:30 I mean, Disney plus subscribers declining,
0:08:34 not by much, it was around 1%, but still a decline.
0:08:38 And Disney plus’ response or Disney’s response was,
0:08:41 well, we rose prices, so this is expected.
0:08:43 And by the way, that’s kind of what you said too,
0:08:45 but you look at Netflix,
0:08:48 Netflix also raised prices last year
0:08:51 and they still added 19 million subscribers.
0:08:55 So I don’t fully buy the, we’re raising prices
0:08:58 and therefore subscriptions are gonna fall off.
0:09:01 We’ve seen it with Spotify too, Spotify raised prices
0:09:04 and their subscriptions are still continuing to climb.
0:09:07 You also mentioned the churn rates.
0:09:12 I just see this as such a big issue in all of streaming
0:09:15 that it makes me believe that streaming
0:09:19 is in a lot of ways uninvestable over the long term.
0:09:22 Apple TV’s churn rate is 8%.
0:09:26 Peacock’s churn rate is 9%.
0:09:28 Disney’s churn rate is on the low end,
0:09:31 but still it’s really high, it’s 5%.
0:09:34 So if you just wanna stay flat in any given quarter,
0:09:36 you basically have to grow your subscribers
0:09:41 by 5% every single quarter, which is just insane.
0:09:42 I mean, I just don’t see
0:09:44 how that is a sustainable business model.
0:09:46 And then the second thing that makes me concerned
0:09:50 about Disney was their box office results,
0:09:52 which were exceptional,
0:09:57 but it was all because of this one movie, Moana 2.
0:10:01 And that was kind of what saved these earnings.
0:10:02 Without that movie, this earnings report
0:10:04 would have been pretty terrible,
0:10:05 which again begs this question,
0:10:08 like how sustainable is this business?
0:10:12 Where you’re basically riding on your growth vehicle,
0:10:15 which is Disney Plus, is pretty stagnant.
0:10:19 And then you’re also relying on these sequels
0:10:20 every single year.
0:10:25 I mean Moana 2, Inside Out 2, Deadpool and Wolverine.
0:10:27 At what point are people just gonna get bored
0:10:28 of these sequels?
0:10:32 Like who’s gonna watch Moana 3 and Moana 4 and Moana 5?
0:10:34 Like how much longer can this go on for?
0:10:35 – You do start to see fatigue.
0:10:39 I would even argue like Deadpool and Wolverine,
0:10:41 I love both those actors.
0:10:43 I think they’re fantastic.
0:10:45 And I’m like, I’m not sure I’m gonna see the next one.
0:10:47 I’m like, okay, I think I’m sort of done with those franchise.
0:10:50 Anyways, what’s really interesting here though
0:10:53 is that the parks did well.
0:10:55 And that is, and if you think about it,
0:10:57 AI can’t replace the parks,
0:10:58 or at least I don’t think it can.
0:11:01 There’s still something especially wonderful
0:11:04 or especially horrible if you’re the parent
0:11:06 about Walt Disney World, right?
0:11:09 That still is a, that isn’t a norm.
0:11:11 Netflix is gonna have a tough time
0:11:13 into Universal’s credit.
0:11:15 They spent the money and the decades
0:11:17 to build those franchise businesses.
0:11:19 But Adams are, this is your notion
0:11:21 that Adams are more important than bits.
0:11:23 But the Disney business right now,
0:11:25 the strongest part of the business as far as I can tell,
0:11:27 is the parks, the cruises and the resorts.
0:11:31 Because it’s hard for Netflix to spin up a cruise ship
0:11:33 business, these things take a long time
0:11:35 and they’re good at the in-person stuff.
0:11:38 – Absolutely, but if you wanna keep that business going,
0:11:40 you’ve gotta also be creating original
0:11:43 and persuasive and compelling intellectual property,
0:11:45 which they’re not doing.
0:11:47 No one’s gonna ride the Moana three ride.
0:11:50 – Yeah, but they can license content, they can.
0:11:51 I mean, I don’t, was Harry,
0:11:55 I mean, for example, Harry Potter, Lego.
0:11:57 I don’t, I think Lego licensed its IP
0:11:59 to someone who knows how to run those parks.
0:12:00 I don’t know if it’s a division of Lego,
0:12:01 maybe it is Legoland.
0:12:02 By the way, you’ll see when you have sons.
0:12:05 Legoland, in my opinion, is the least awful
0:12:06 of all of them.
0:12:07 – Legoland’s amazing, that was my favorite growing up.
0:12:08 – Oh really?
0:12:09 Oh yeah, that’s right, I forgot how young you are.
0:12:12 But I used to, I took my sons to the Lego hotel
0:12:13 and it was pretty cool.
0:12:14 – It’s epic.
0:12:16 – I love the image of Little Ed at Legoland.
0:12:20 Right, building scary, like you’re like,
0:12:22 I can build something bigger than that.
0:12:23 Anyways.
0:12:24 – By the way, just before we move on here,
0:12:26 when is your Netflix show coming out?
0:12:27 – Oh, not for a while.
0:12:28 – If you had to guess.
0:12:33 – I would guess fall of 26.
0:12:35 Yeah, it’s gonna take a while.
0:12:38 – We need to get you on camera here.
0:12:39 Is that part of the plan?
0:12:40 I hope so.
0:12:42 – No, I am, you will see soon.
0:12:46 I do have a cameo in what is the hottest show on HBO
0:12:48 in several seasons.
0:12:50 I do have a voice cameo.
0:12:52 So I’m excited about that.
0:12:54 We’ll have a party, you’ll all come over,
0:12:56 we’ll all celebrate and we’ll watch it together.
0:12:58 None of that is true.
0:12:59 (laughing)
0:13:01 None of that is true.
0:13:02 But it’s a nice thought, isn’t it?
0:13:05 If I was kind of a more loving and engaged boss,
0:13:07 get out of my climbing room, Claire.
0:13:09 Don’t touch anything.
0:13:11 Anyway, sorry, go ahead.
0:13:13 – Let’s talk about Novo Nordisk.
0:13:17 This was pretty important earnings report for this company
0:13:20 ’cause they simply put have not had a good year.
0:13:24 The stock’s down 30% in the past 12 months.
0:13:26 They tried making this new GLP-1,
0:13:31 this drug called Kagrosema and the trials failed.
0:13:34 They’ve been outclassed by Eli Lilly
0:13:36 who have been sharing from their studies
0:13:38 that their drugs are just more effective.
0:13:42 So Novo Nordisk is not in a great place.
0:13:44 They needed a really strong showing,
0:13:47 not from the insulin business or the glucagon business
0:13:49 or any of their other medicines,
0:13:50 but from the GLP-1 business
0:13:53 because that, as we know, is the only thing
0:13:56 Wall Street cares about with this company.
0:13:59 And rightly so, that’s where all the growth is coming from.
0:14:01 The results were pretty good.
0:14:04 Wagovi sales more than doubled.
0:14:06 If you look at that in combination with OZMPIC,
0:14:10 the obesity drug business is up more than 50%.
0:14:13 So the GLP-1 business is doing quite well.
0:14:16 I think the question here is a larger question,
0:14:20 which is, will this whole GLP-1 thing live up
0:14:25 to the hype that we had about 16 months ago?
0:14:28 And that’s sort of up for debate.
0:14:31 I mean, I’ve seen market size predictions saying
0:14:33 this is a $100 billion market.
0:14:35 Some say it’s a $500 billion market.
0:14:37 No one really knows.
0:14:38 So I kind of look at this company,
0:14:39 I look at these earnings
0:14:41 and I don’t really have an answer.
0:14:42 The only thing I can conclude with Nova Nordisk
0:14:45 is, you know, wait and see.
0:14:48 – I would argue that the space is just getting started.
0:14:52 The GLP-1 drugs, the category, everything I’ve read,
0:14:56 I just think this technology is incredible.
0:14:57 The next sort of question though
0:15:00 is how many competitors are in the space?
0:15:03 And also asked about the motor and who we had on last week,
0:15:04 made an interesting point
0:15:06 and that is for him, Nova Nordisk,
0:15:11 history was they kind of slipped and fell on Bogovino’s Epic.
0:15:12 – Let’s face it, they got valuable
0:15:14 because they were in the right.
0:15:15 They got lucky.
0:15:16 I mean, it’s not like amazing R&D
0:15:18 where they said we’re gonna come up with a weight loss drug.
0:15:21 The diabetes drug happened to have a side benefit.
0:15:25 And I think that until they come up with another product
0:15:30 that is a market changer, blockbuster drug,
0:15:32 I think the hypothesis has to be
0:15:34 that they got lucky with these two drugs
0:15:35 and they’re going to go back
0:15:38 to being a sleepy Danish diabetes drug company.
0:15:39 – I mean, that has showed an ability
0:15:41 to create another or acquire another product
0:15:44 in Instagram, right?
0:15:47 Google launched YouTube, you know, these companies,
0:15:50 Microsoft has an incredible cloud bed.
0:15:52 These companies have shown an ability
0:15:56 to innovate more than, you know, repeatedly.
0:15:58 And his view was Nova Nordisk
0:16:00 hasn’t really demonstrated that.
0:16:03 – To his point, the only company
0:16:06 that actually innovated this drug
0:16:09 that didn’t stumble its way into it was Eli Lilly,
0:16:10 who created their own versions.
0:16:12 Of course, after Nova Nordisk
0:16:14 figured this whole thing out accidentally.
0:16:17 So I think if you’re thinking about, okay,
0:16:19 how do I get exposure to GLP-1s?
0:16:22 Yes, Nova Nordisk is the market leader.
0:16:26 It has the greatest market share in the US and in the world.
0:16:28 But I think in terms of culture and innovation,
0:16:30 all that stuff that Aswa talks about,
0:16:33 I do think Eli Lilly is probably a better bet
0:16:35 from that perspective.
0:16:37 Let’s move on to Uber.
0:16:40 Uber reported earnings revenue grew 20%.
0:16:42 They had this kind of soft guidance,
0:16:44 $42 billion in gross bookings
0:16:47 expected in the course coming up.
0:16:49 And the stock did not react very well.
0:16:52 I thought the most interesting part with these earnings
0:16:56 was that Uber is officially launching a wait list
0:16:59 for its Waymo partnership.
0:17:03 So this is gonna happen in Austin first
0:17:05 and later in Atlanta.
0:17:08 Uber and Waymo are teaming up
0:17:12 and self-driving taxis are coming in 2025.
0:17:15 And I think the most important thing here is
0:17:17 the autonomous taxi fleet.
0:17:19 It’s not coming from Tesla.
0:17:21 It’s coming from Uber.
0:17:23 And I think that’s notable
0:17:25 because it just highlights this market bias
0:17:28 that we keep on seeing towards Tesla
0:17:30 where Tesla will go out and talk very vaguely
0:17:33 about full self-driving and autonomous taxis
0:17:35 and the stock rips.
0:17:39 Meanwhile, Uber does it and the stock declines.
0:17:41 People just don’t take it seriously for some reason.
0:17:43 And I can’t really wrap my head around it.
0:17:44 I mean, some people say,
0:17:46 you know, Waymo’s are more expensive to build,
0:17:48 they’re more expensive to operate,
0:17:51 which is probably a fair point.
0:17:54 But I think the larger point still stands,
0:17:56 Waymo is the only one that has figured it out.
0:17:58 And now they’re going to market
0:18:00 with the biggest ride sharing company in the world, Uber.
0:18:03 Meanwhile, Tesla has shipped nothing.
0:18:05 So I think this is a pretty big deal.
0:18:07 I think full scale commercialization
0:18:09 is still a long way away.
0:18:11 But to me, this signals Uber’s actually kind of
0:18:13 leading the pack in autonomous.
0:18:16 And I get the sense it’s probably very undervalued
0:18:17 at this point.
0:18:19 – Waymo’s been here for a while.
0:18:22 And the notion that we’re all waiting for Tesla autonomous,
0:18:25 I took a Waymo taxi six months ago in LA.
0:18:30 By the way, extraordinary, my first ride in this thing.
0:18:32 And we get to this intersection
0:18:34 where there’s been an accident.
0:18:35 I’m like, oh, great.
0:18:38 I’m going to be the first like autonomous guy taken out.
0:18:40 I’m like, this is so fitting for what I do.
0:18:43 PropG takes his first autonomous Uber
0:18:47 and gets, you know, T-boned by a bus.
0:18:52 Because the fucking Waymo couldn’t process a billion points.
0:18:57 There’s a cop with cones waving with illuminated batons
0:19:00 saying, okay, you need to go around the crash car
0:19:03 into the wrong side of the road
0:19:05 and to get around this accident.
0:19:07 And I thought, there’s no way
0:19:10 this thing’s going to be able to process this.
0:19:11 And it was very hesitant.
0:19:14 It drove like what I would imagine
0:19:19 a scared 16 year old girl would approach the situation.
0:19:20 That sexist.
0:19:23 – Or a boy or a scared 16 year old boy.
0:19:25 – No, my boys decided you can make,
0:19:29 you can make a left on a red light if you just stop first.
0:19:30 That’s what he’s decided.
0:19:32 It’s like, wait, you just need to stop.
0:19:34 And then you can go, no, no, no, no, anyway.
0:19:38 So this thing went out very hesitant and it figured it out.
0:19:41 So the notion that we’re waiting, it’s just so ridiculous.
0:19:43 Tesla, in my view, has already lost.
0:19:45 Waymo’s doing a great job.
0:19:50 Uber has massive, I mean, the number of Teslas is dwarfed.
0:19:54 By the number of Uber rides out there every day.
0:19:57 And you gotta give, I think Dara Kastur Shahi
0:20:01 has done a fantastic job because in their DNA,
0:20:02 if you think about a lot of the companies
0:20:04 that have outperformed the market,
0:20:05 they’re asset-like, right?
0:20:06 They don’t have big catbacks.
0:20:08 Airbnb, Uber said, no, we don’t wanna be
0:20:10 in the business of owning real estate.
0:20:12 We don’t wanna be in the business of owning cars.
0:20:15 We’re gonna leverage other people’s catbacks investment.
0:20:18 So Dara said, rather than go into AI
0:20:19 and announce big partnerships
0:20:22 and that we’re putting 10 billion into AI and autonomous,
0:20:25 he just said, no, I’ll draft off of other people’s catbacks,
0:20:27 in this case, Google and Waymo,
0:20:30 which has spent kind of 15 years and tens of billions
0:20:33 of dollars and I’ll give them, I’ll co-brand,
0:20:35 I’ll have an offering.
0:20:37 This is kind of how you do it.
0:20:40 – And by the way, Uber had their own autonomous vehicle unit
0:20:42 which they scrapped in favor of this.
0:20:43 And I think the market said,
0:20:45 oh, they don’t know what they’re doing.
0:20:48 Actually, it’s a small move for exactly the reason you said.
0:20:51 No one’s complaining that Apple didn’t go deep
0:20:52 into AI spending.
0:20:57 They said, okay, similar to how Uber evaluated autonomous
0:21:00 and said, there are other people spending more money
0:21:01 than we need to, we’d be playing catch up.
0:21:03 Why don’t we just become a remora fish
0:21:06 off of that giant spending?
0:21:09 And despite the deep seek meltdown,
0:21:11 Apple has not registered a loss in their stock
0:21:14 because they never decided to get into this arms race.
0:21:16 So I really, I’m shocked.
0:21:18 I think Uber arguably,
0:21:19 I don’t wanna say it’s been the biggest turnaround,
0:21:23 but I think that you needed someone sort of crazy
0:21:25 in a reverent and provocative and build fast
0:21:27 and break things in Travis Kalanick.
0:21:28 I don’t think he gets enough credit
0:21:31 for what he envisioned and what he built.
0:21:32 I think it’s extraordinary.
0:21:36 But Dara came in and has just made a series of very,
0:21:39 what I’d call smart, thoughtful moves.
0:21:44 Oh, it’s about to sneeze.
0:21:49 Sorry, that’s my pre-ketamine face.
0:21:51 By the way, if you run into me tonight and I like me,
0:21:52 it means I’ve tried the ketamine.
0:21:53 I’m excited.
0:21:54 I’m gonna truck you down.
0:21:56 I’m gonna make sure I see Scott on ketamine.
0:21:58 Instead of my screensaver,
0:22:00 I have a picture of Preep Barara in his phone number
0:22:04 because he’s my one call if I get into trouble.
0:22:06 So I used to be my boys on my screensaver.
0:22:07 Now it’s gonna be Preep
0:22:09 ’cause if I get really fucked up, I’m calling him.
0:22:11 He just seems like very responsible
0:22:15 and he can get me out of any bad situation.
0:22:16 – We’ll be right back after the break
0:22:18 for a look at Spotify’s earnings.
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0:25:59 (upbeat music)
0:26:06 We’re back with ProfG Markets.
0:26:09 Spotify posted its first full year of profitability ever
0:26:12 with gross profits rising 40% year over year.
0:26:15 The streaming platform also added a fourth quarter record
0:26:18 of 35 million monthly active users.
0:26:20 That’s a 5% increase from the previous quarter.
0:26:23 Spotify Wrapped was one of the top drivers
0:26:26 of user engagement, fueling double digit growth,
0:26:31 shares surged 13% after that earnings report.
0:26:33 I’m just gonna point out,
0:26:37 I made one prediction on our 2025 predictions episode.
0:26:40 And that was that Spotify would be the media platform
0:26:41 of the year in addition to YouTube,
0:26:44 which I’m also really bullish on.
0:26:47 But I am just consistently impressed
0:26:50 with this company, the innovation,
0:26:52 their integration of video,
0:26:54 the integration of comments and polls,
0:26:57 their transition to profitability now.
0:26:59 I think if there’s one platform
0:27:02 that can rival YouTube in this new digital age,
0:27:04 I think it’s Spotify.
0:27:06 And we’re starting to see it in the numbers here.
0:27:08 Scott, your reactions to Spotify’s earnings.
0:27:10 – I love Spotify.
0:27:12 I think I picked it as one of my stock picks five years ago.
0:27:15 I went flat for three years, so I got it wrong.
0:27:17 But there are very few companies
0:27:19 that are able to take an entire medium
0:27:22 and distill it down to an app, a searchable app.
0:27:24 I can find anything on Spotify.
0:27:25 And people say, well,
0:27:27 Apple and Amazon have done the same thing,
0:27:29 but to your point, they’ve really innovated.
0:27:31 The rap thing, I thought,
0:27:34 I’m not entirely sure how you connect rap to more revenues.
0:27:36 I thought it was cool.
0:27:38 And I like Spotify saying, by the way,
0:27:41 you listened to Tom Petty and some DJs and that’s about it.
0:27:43 But how does that, I’m curious.
0:27:44 I don’t understand the mechanics
0:27:46 of how that translates to more revenue.
0:27:49 Tell me young person, what is happening on Spotify?
0:27:52 – Well, they didn’t connect it to revenues,
0:27:54 but they connected it to user engagement,
0:27:56 which that’s what it’s all about.
0:27:58 It just creates heat and excitement.
0:28:02 And I think possibly, I mean, full disclosure,
0:28:05 I don’t use Spotify because I’ve always used Apple Music
0:28:09 and I’ve never wanted to go through the cumbersome process
0:28:11 of transporting everything over.
0:28:13 But when Spotify rap came out,
0:28:15 it was the first time I was like,
0:28:19 maybe I should switch because this just sounds fun
0:28:22 to have this little presentation about me
0:28:23 and all of my music habits.
0:28:27 So I think that would be the answer.
0:28:28 – Let me just give you a little insight
0:28:33 into the role that streaming music plays in mating.
0:28:36 If you’re ever at home with your girlfriend
0:28:38 and you’re thinking, I don’t want to have kids
0:28:39 and I don’t want to have sex.
0:28:41 – I know it’s coming, I know it’s wrong.
0:28:46 – Just play ad supported Pandora.
0:28:51 – Nothing says do not mate with me.
0:28:56 This is, you are taking the evolutionary pull down
0:29:00 a couple notches if you have sex with someone
0:29:02 who has ad supported Pandora.
0:29:06 I play, I love, I still have ad supported streaming radio
0:29:07 and I think it’s hilarious.
0:29:08 I play it and I’m like, oh my God,
0:29:11 the commercials are so bad, listen to this commercial.
0:29:14 Anyways, but back to, I’m shocked.
0:29:16 I thought you would have had Spotify.
0:29:17 I absolutely love Spotify.
0:29:19 And also they have the best party.
0:29:21 Just so you know, they have the best party at Cannad.
0:29:22 – Oh really?
0:29:23 – I’ll take you, you can be my date.
0:29:24 – I would love that invite.
0:29:26 Well, let’s just go over some of the numbers here
0:29:28 because I think they’re pretty incredible.
0:29:33 So Spotify’s monthly active users hit 675 million,
0:29:34 beat estimates by 10 million,
0:29:39 which means that one in 12 people on earth is on Spotify.
0:29:44 Premium subscribers grew 11% year over year.
0:29:46 That was despite the price hikes,
0:29:50 average revenue per user up 5%.
0:29:52 First profitable year in the company’s history,
0:29:53 which I think is a very big deal
0:29:58 and stock is now at an all-time high, $620 per share.
0:29:59 We should probably think about
0:30:01 what could go wrong for Spotify.
0:30:06 I think one potential issue is this growing public resentment
0:30:11 towards Spotify and specifically towards Spotify
0:30:13 and how they pay their artists.
0:30:17 So a lot of people say that Spotify squeezes their artists.
0:30:18 They don’t pay them enough.
0:30:22 They reward the top 1% and the other 99% get screwed.
0:30:24 And that’s timely because Chapel Roan,
0:30:28 who just won the best new artist award at the Grammys,
0:30:30 she actually called this out.
0:30:32 She didn’t call out Spotify specifically,
0:30:34 but she called out the whole music industry
0:30:36 of which of course Spotify plays a huge role.
0:30:38 So let’s just listen to what she said.
0:30:41 – I told myself, if I ever won a Grammy
0:30:43 and I got to stand up here
0:30:46 in front of the most powerful people in music,
0:30:49 I would demand that labels and the industry
0:30:52 profiting millions of dollars off of artists
0:30:55 would offer a livable wage in healthcare,
0:30:57 especially to developing artists.
0:31:00 (crowd cheering)
0:31:04 – Well, isn’t that fucking precious?
0:31:06 (laughing)
0:31:08 Well, here, if you, you know,
0:31:10 and if you get in front of a group of kids
0:31:13 in high school, tell them not to be music artists
0:31:15 because it’s a shitty industry with too many people
0:31:17 fighting over too few revenues
0:31:20 and a series of platforms that are developed in a monopoly.
0:31:25 So okay, the notion that’s great virtue signaling,
0:31:28 you know, good for you and it’s gonna,
0:31:30 it’s not gonna mean dick.
0:31:33 It’s not, these guys are doing their job.
0:31:37 If you wanted, all right, are you sincere?
0:31:39 Pull your shit off of Spotify.
0:31:43 Are you really sincere about helping an event
0:31:46 and call your friends, you know,
0:31:48 do you hang out with Beyonce, do you know Taylor Swift
0:31:52 and pull your shit off of Spotify?
0:31:55 Because as long as you have oligopolies,
0:31:57 they’re gonna extract more and more
0:32:00 and they find that the best way to get retention
0:32:03 is to just consistently recommend Taylor Swift
0:32:04 over and over.
0:32:09 And the notion that she’s gonna bully the record labels
0:32:11 Spotify is now worth more than all the record labels.
0:32:13 So if she really wanted to have an impact,
0:32:15 let me do some virtue signaling.
0:32:19 When Spotify decided to not fact check Joe Rogan
0:32:21 who would have one legitimate doctor on one day
0:32:24 and then an illegitimate doctor the next day
0:32:26 and create all sorts of vaccine hesitancy
0:32:28 and false equivalences,
0:32:31 I called them and said, we’re pulling Prove G off of Spotify.
0:32:34 I pulled my shit down and it cost us
0:32:35 somewhere between a quarter of a half a million.
0:32:39 So yeah, put your money where your fucking mouth is,
0:32:41 pull off of Spotify.
0:32:42 But there’s notion that you’re gonna shame people
0:32:45 in the audience to paying artists
0:32:47 who aren’t making them any money, more money.
0:32:48 Yeah, good luck with that, have at it.
0:32:50 – No, I completely agree with you.
0:32:53 And I think this just, it reminds me
0:32:56 of all the dynamics that we’ve seen in Hollywood.
0:33:00 And the reality is altists have been getting screwed
0:33:02 since the dawn of time.
0:33:06 And historically it’s been the record labels
0:33:09 that have screwed their artists.
0:33:11 And I think back to the 1950s,
0:33:12 this is probably the most famous examples
0:33:15 where you had all of these incredible black musicians
0:33:17 who are suddenly dominating the charts
0:33:19 and then none of them got rich
0:33:21 because they signed these shitty deals
0:33:24 that ultimately rewarded the owners of the record labels.
0:33:29 So this dynamic of artists getting screwed to an extent
0:33:34 is nothing new, but I don’t think,
0:33:37 I mean, a lot of people are blaming Spotify for this
0:33:39 saying that they just don’t pay them enough
0:33:40 and blaming the business model.
0:33:44 I really don’t think you can blame Spotify for this
0:33:48 because all you have to do is look at the financials.
0:33:49 You have to remember,
0:33:52 this is Spotify’s first ever year of profitability.
0:33:57 So for the 16 years before this, Spotify was losing money.
0:33:59 They were losing money to pay employees
0:34:01 and to pay for technology.
0:34:03 And yeah, to pay their artists.
0:34:07 And so I’m not trying to like make a sob story for Spotify,
0:34:10 but I think all I would say is this is a business
0:34:12 and the business has to make money.
0:34:16 And this year was the first time they ever did that.
0:34:18 The other side to this, you know,
0:34:21 one other way that they could have paid their artists more
0:34:24 or they could pay their artists more
0:34:28 would be to massively raise prices for the consumer.
0:34:30 But actually they haven’t done that.
0:34:32 And in the past 16 years,
0:34:37 the price has gone from 9.99 to 11.99.
0:34:40 So actually on an inflation adjusted basis,
0:34:42 Spotify actually got cheaper.
0:34:45 And then you compare that to things like Netflix.
0:34:47 Netflix has more than doubled its prices
0:34:48 in that same amount of time.
0:34:52 So, you know, I’m sure someone’s being greedy here.
0:34:55 I’m sure, you know, for the record label
0:34:59 has screwed some artists here or there.
0:35:03 But the fact that Spotify is getting wrapped into this
0:35:05 like as the big bad company
0:35:07 that’s just sort of ruining the music industry,
0:35:10 I just don’t think that is true.
0:35:12 And I think ultimately what this is
0:35:16 is that as you say, being a struggling artist
0:35:18 is a bad business.
0:35:20 It just doesn’t really work.
0:35:22 And in almost all industries,
0:35:27 it only starts to make you real money when you hit the 1%.
0:35:29 And finally, Chapel Roan has done that.
0:35:33 And I don’t think she’s gonna be giving her money away
0:35:34 to the other 99%.
0:35:36 I think she’s gonna be, you know,
0:35:39 claiming her check from whichever record label
0:35:40 she’s signed to.
0:35:45 So, I have a very boomery outlook on this.
0:35:46 Sounds like you do too.
0:35:48 And it sounds like we’re just in fervent agreement.
0:35:50 – We need a different term than boomery.
0:35:53 Look, the digitization of markets
0:35:56 results in a consolidation and a winner take most environment.
0:35:58 You digitize retail, you end up with one company
0:35:59 with 50% of all your commerce.
0:36:02 You digitize connections and socialization online.
0:36:04 You end up with one company meta that owns two thirds
0:36:06 of all social interactions online.
0:36:08 You digitize information.
0:36:11 One company ends up with 93% share of search.
0:36:14 You digitize mating and online dating.
0:36:19 And 80 to 90% of all swipe rights happens amongst
0:36:22 the 10% of most attractive males, right?
0:36:24 Men are less choosy, women are more choosy.
0:36:26 They all want the same guy.
0:36:28 And the same thing’s happening on these channels.
0:36:30 When you digitize a platform,
0:36:34 the Taylor Swift gets more listen,
0:36:37 more listen time than all of classical music now.
0:36:42 Taylor Swift is bigger than classical music or jazz,
0:36:44 the entire genre.
0:36:47 And it’s because the algorithms, they consolidate
0:36:50 and they say, okay, when everyone has access to everything,
0:36:54 the very best, and Taylor Swift is the very best,
0:36:57 according to hopped up 14 year olds on sugar,
0:36:59 they consolidate the market.
0:37:01 Now, I don’t know if there’s anything you can do.
0:37:03 The only things you can really do about this
0:37:04 on a systemic level is to make sure you have
0:37:07 a really robust FDC and DOJ
0:37:09 that makes sure there’s a lot of competition
0:37:12 such that you transfer money back from the monopolies
0:37:13 to the artists, to the means of production,
0:37:15 to the labor force.
0:37:16 The other thing you can do
0:37:18 is have minimum wage of 25 bucks an hour,
0:37:21 such that if these people have side hustles,
0:37:23 they’re at least making a good living.
0:37:26 But let me just, let me just clue young people in.
0:37:29 The world does not owe you your passion.
0:37:34 And you don’t have the right, the birthright to make music.
0:37:36 You have the birthright, in my opinion,
0:37:38 to make, to have healthcare.
0:37:41 I mean, let’s start there, healthcare, universal childcare.
0:37:44 You don’t have a birthright to be an independent music
0:37:46 producer or independent musician and make money.
0:37:48 These are, the vanity industries
0:37:50 will always have an overinvestment in human capital
0:37:52 and they’ll be a small number
0:37:54 and increasingly, unfortunately, a small number of people.
0:37:57 What I think you have to do is say, okay,
0:38:01 if you’re the backup drummer on a Kellogg’s ad,
0:38:03 they have to pay you at least 25 bucks an hour.
0:38:06 Anyways, I think this is a social issue
0:38:07 and we need to break up monopolies,
0:38:10 of which I’m not sure you could say Spotify’s a monopoly.
0:38:12 Everything’s going hunger games.
0:38:15 The winners leave it a remarkable life
0:38:17 and everyone else dies a slow death.
0:38:20 And if you want to change that,
0:38:21 you have to make systemic change
0:38:25 at education levels, antitrust levels,
0:38:28 but believing that somehow shaming the record labels
0:38:30 or Spotify and to paying people.
0:38:33 You know why they pay these people nothing?
0:38:34 Because they can.
0:38:36 And they’ll keep making music.
0:38:38 And by the way, the only way it gets better
0:38:40 is if it becomes such a shitty business
0:38:41 that just people don’t go into music
0:38:44 and over time they have to pay them more.
0:38:45 – Right?
0:38:46 – Anyway, I think the market,
0:38:48 I don’t want to say the market’s doing its job here,
0:38:50 but the solutions are societal.
0:38:51 They come out at DC.
0:38:54 They don’t come out of like virtue signaling
0:38:55 at the Grammys.
0:38:58 – We’ll be right back with a look at Google’s earnings.
0:38:59 If you’re enjoying the show so far,
0:39:03 hit follow and leave us a review on Prof.G Markets.
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0:41:40 We’re back with ProfG Markets.
0:41:43 Google’s fourth quarter earnings largely disappointed.
0:41:47 Revenue grew 12%, which was the slowest pace since 2023.
0:41:49 Growth in the cloud division
0:41:51 also slowed from the previous quarter.
0:41:54 Still, CEO Sunder Pichai highlighted
0:41:57 the company’s accelerated investments in AI data centers
0:41:59 with plans to increase capital expenditures
0:42:03 to $75 billion this year.
0:42:05 That’s up from $52.5 billion last year.
0:42:10 The stock fell 7% following that earnings report.
0:42:14 Just wanna quickly touch on why the stock fell so much.
0:42:17 By the way, that was Google’s fifth worst trading day
0:42:18 in 10 years.
0:42:21 It erased $200 billion in value.
0:42:24 So you would think based on that
0:42:28 that Google had a dreadful quarter.
0:42:31 Actually, on the whole, it was fine-ish.
0:42:36 Revenue up 12%, roughly in line with expectations.
0:42:40 Net income up 28%, it beat expectations.
0:42:43 The problem, as we keep on seeing with big tech,
0:42:47 was this one number, which was the cloud revenue,
0:42:50 or you might call it the AI revenue.
0:42:53 And that was $12 billion up 30%,
0:42:57 but most importantly, lower than what Wall Street predicted.
0:43:01 And I think in 2025, if you are a big tech company
0:43:04 and you’re not smashing expectations in AI specifically,
0:43:06 your stock is immediately gonna drop.
0:43:08 It’s just a non-starter.
0:43:10 This is, by the way, exactly what happened
0:43:11 to Microsoft the week before.
0:43:14 They had decent earnings, AI revenue missed,
0:43:18 $200 billion in market cap erased overnight.
0:43:21 Let’s get your reactions to Google’s earnings, I guess,
0:43:25 particularly this obsession with the cloud revenue
0:43:27 and missing on those estimates.
0:43:30 – Yeah, look, it’s impossible to ever count them out.
0:43:31 They have five separate businesses
0:43:33 that do more than $30 billion in annual.
0:43:34 This is a really robust business,
0:43:38 meaning that while they’re kind of core business of search,
0:43:41 they have five companies that could be
0:43:44 $100 billion plus market cap companies.
0:43:45 They’re very diversified,
0:43:47 and they coordinate, cooperate with each other,
0:43:49 which is probably not a good thing.
0:43:52 But between Google Search, the DisplayOut Network,
0:43:54 YouTube, and subscriptions,
0:43:57 that’s YouTube Premium, Google Play, and then cloud.
0:43:59 They just have some amazing businesses.
0:44:01 The analysts here made the analogy.
0:44:03 It’s like having the revenue power of five Starbucks
0:44:05 or five visas.
0:44:08 The thing that I think was the scariest thing in here
0:44:11 was one, analysts pointed to the fact that
0:44:13 their cloud business was not growing as fast,
0:44:14 which they saw as an indicator
0:44:17 they haven’t figured out a way to monetize AI
0:44:20 from the company that had most of the IP around AI.
0:44:21 I think the scarier number here
0:44:23 is that for the first time, their market share,
0:44:25 the scariest number for Google shareholders,
0:44:28 I should say, or for Alphabet shareholders,
0:44:30 is that for the first time, their market share of search
0:44:32 dropped below 90%.
0:44:37 And so what I’m hearing from some young people
0:44:39 is they have totally abandoned Google Search
0:44:43 and are now just using AI, that they just get more.
0:44:47 And I’ve found myself getting impatient with Google Search
0:44:49 and just going to chat to BTR Anthropic
0:44:51 and typing in a question.
0:44:54 And I find it just, it doesn’t give me 500 links
0:44:55 to make me sort through them.
0:44:57 It just says, it tries to give me,
0:45:00 it tries to answer the question, right?
0:45:02 Because with Google right now, it’s a query,
0:45:05 but it’s also an invitation to throw a bunch of shit at me
0:45:08 that’s not accurate that you think you can further monetize
0:45:10 and take me to another place.
0:45:11 Whereas chat GPT, although it hallucinates
0:45:13 and as does Anthropic,
0:45:16 it attempts to actually answer the question in one shot.
0:45:18 And so you could see the stock,
0:45:22 if Google Search share drops below 85%
0:45:23 in the next 12 months,
0:45:25 I think you get the stock really get hammered
0:45:27 because what that means is that their ultimate toll booth,
0:45:29 it’s losing its power.
0:45:30 And at the same time,
0:45:34 they announced an increase in CapEx from 58 billion to 75,
0:45:36 which the market didn’t like.
0:45:39 But I still think this stock and this company
0:45:44 have so many amazing, at the same time YouTube is growing.
0:45:48 We’ve said this before that Netflix isn’t a premier streamer.
0:45:51 It really is YouTube if you’re talking about video.
0:45:52 But I think fears around AI,
0:45:55 they haven’t figured out an AI strategy to monetize
0:45:59 and to search dipping below 90%,
0:46:02 I think analysts are gonna keep watching
0:46:05 what’s happening to a search share
0:46:06 because I could see an environment
0:46:08 where if there’s enough applications
0:46:11 and these AI guys continue to raise this kind of capital,
0:46:12 I think you could see in a year,
0:46:16 their search volume go from 90 to 70%.
0:46:19 – I think I disagree on these points.
0:46:21 And I think the market share,
0:46:23 the search market share is an important point
0:46:26 that has to be tracked and we’ll see what happens.
0:46:29 But I can just say from my experience,
0:46:30 I do use chat GPT,
0:46:35 but I would say it’s 95% Google and 5% chat GPT
0:46:39 and maybe 1% other tools.
0:46:44 So search is still an incredibly valuable product to me.
0:46:47 And I think it’s still an incredibly valuable product
0:46:48 to many others.
0:46:51 And I think that’s why you’re seeing their search revenue
0:46:55 is continuing to grow quite steadily
0:46:58 on the cloud revenue point.
0:47:00 I think it’s important to note,
0:47:03 the reason Google missed on cloud this quarter
0:47:06 was not because there wasn’t enough demand,
0:47:09 it was because they couldn’t keep up with supply.
0:47:12 They literally don’t have enough compute,
0:47:15 which you might say, okay, well, that’s another problem.
0:47:16 But then you realize,
0:47:19 well, actually they’re about to invest $75 billion
0:47:21 into data centers this year,
0:47:24 which solves exactly that problem.
0:47:27 So, you know, I see the stock dipping
0:47:30 because everyone’s getting all wigged out
0:47:32 about this cloud revenue thing.
0:47:34 But to me, I see it as kind of a good problem.
0:47:36 There’s too much demand
0:47:38 and now they’re investing in meeting that demand.
0:47:41 So I see this, I think they’re being over-punished
0:47:42 for those cloud numbers.
0:47:45 I also think they’re being over-punished for deep seek,
0:47:48 which we can get into.
0:47:51 But, you know, 25 times earnings,
0:47:53 lowest P multiple in all of tech.
0:47:56 Meanwhile, you’ve got Apple at 37 with what?
0:47:58 2% revenue growth.
0:48:02 You got Google over here growing at 12, 13, 14%.
0:48:06 I think that it’s perhaps being over-punished here.
0:48:07 – I like your take better than mine.
0:48:08 I would draw the comment.
0:48:10 I think your take is better than mine.
0:48:13 The thing you said there that stick out was 25.
0:48:15 Cheapest company in tech,
0:48:17 the diversification of the revenue streams.
0:48:20 I like how you couch it against valuation
0:48:23 and that it’s arguably the cheapest of the big tech players.
0:48:27 And the reason I love Alphabet is because, you know,
0:48:29 it’s impossible not to find a business
0:48:32 that’s not, you know, only meeting expectations
0:48:34 when you have five different businesses.
0:48:36 But the reality is they have five different businesses.
0:48:38 They’re hugely diversified.
0:48:42 And their ability to coordinate and cooperate
0:48:44 and share data to the users
0:48:48 and the advertisers detriment is extraordinary there.
0:48:49 They’re kind of the only other company
0:48:51 that can gather this much, who grew up this much data
0:48:54 and then use it to increase prices
0:48:56 or rents on people is meta.
0:48:57 And these guys have it.
0:49:00 They also have the second largest operating system
0:49:01 or actually the largest operating system,
0:49:05 but the second most profitable in mobile with Android.
0:49:08 So you just, this is one of those stocks, I think,
0:49:10 especially at this price, you just own it.
0:49:11 You know, you just–
0:49:13 – You better own it. – You just own it.
0:49:15 – By the way, just on YouTube,
0:49:19 10 and a half billion dollars in ad revenue, up 14%.
0:49:21 It is still the fastest growing unit
0:49:22 in the Google ad business.
0:49:25 It’s still bigger than Netflix.
0:49:28 And I pointed out it’s the most popular
0:49:30 TV streaming platform in the US.
0:49:35 It is now also the most popular podcasting platform too.
0:49:37 More popular than Spotify,
0:49:40 twice as popular as Apple podcasts.
0:49:43 So this thing is just growing so rapidly
0:49:45 and it’s already a behemoth.
0:49:48 It’s already way bigger than Netflix.
0:49:52 I’m so, I mean, we’ve been bullish on YouTube for a while.
0:49:55 I just, I remain extremely bullish on YouTube.
0:49:58 – YouTube is now the largest podcast distribution platform.
0:50:00 The more people are listening to podcasts now
0:50:03 in terms of listenership on YouTube,
0:50:05 then they are on Apple or Spotify.
0:50:07 – Yeah, and then just one final point here,
0:50:09 we should touch on is this CAPEX.
0:50:12 I think there were a lot of questions following deep seek
0:50:15 as to whether big tech would be pulling back
0:50:17 from all of this AI CAPEX spending.
0:50:19 The answer we’ve gotten from this round of earnings
0:50:21 is a resounding no.
0:50:22 It’s kind of crazy.
0:50:25 You’ve got Google spending $75 billion,
0:50:27 way up from last year.
0:50:29 You got Meta spending $65 billion,
0:50:33 Microsoft $85 billion, Amazon more than $90 billion.
0:50:36 This is more than $300 billion in CAPEX,
0:50:38 all coming down the pipeline for 2025.
0:50:40 It’s all going to go to AI,
0:50:42 which presumably means it’s all going to go
0:50:44 to Nvidia pretty much.
0:50:48 So I’m just looking at what’s happened with deep seek here.
0:50:52 I’m struck by the extent to which deep seek
0:50:54 did not affect the AI CAPEX story,
0:50:57 at least in this round of earnings.
0:50:59 Maybe that’s going to change next quarter
0:51:01 and they’re going to switch things up.
0:51:03 But so far at least the plan
0:51:06 is basically completely unchanged.
0:51:10 Let’s take a look at the week ahead.
0:51:12 We’ll see the consumer and producer price indices
0:51:13 for January.
0:51:17 We’ll also see earnings from McDonald’s, Shopify, Reddit,
0:51:18 and Airbnb.
0:51:21 Scott, do you have any predictions?
0:51:23 You’re a big shareholder in two of those companies.
0:51:25 – Yeah, they’re both going good, especially Reddit.
0:51:26 Jesus.
0:51:28 God, why didn’t I buy more?
0:51:29 That was so obvious.
0:51:30 – Come on, you did well.
0:51:31 – You have been out well.
0:51:32 Dude, I’m glass half empty.
0:51:34 Haven’t you figured that out?
0:51:36 Anyway, so my prediction is the following
0:51:38 and I didn’t have one, but you inspired one.
0:51:41 I think Joe Rogan is about to be displaced.
0:51:44 I think that the new number one podcasters
0:51:48 will either be Mel Robbins ’cause she’s so talented
0:51:50 at like connecting emotion with psychology.
0:51:51 I think she’s outstanding.
0:51:56 But my outside shot here is I think that the new Joe Rogan
0:51:58 is Steve Bartlett, diary of a CEO.
0:52:00 And it’s for the reason you stated.
0:52:03 And that is the first thing I did literally
0:52:06 when I landed in London, a friend of mine said,
0:52:09 “There’s this Brazilian party at Five Hurtford.”
0:52:11 And I went and it was like an amazing party
0:52:12 with hot people everywhere.
0:52:14 And I’m like, “I love London.”
0:52:16 It’s been downhill since then.
0:52:19 And then the next day, the first thing I did,
0:52:21 this is all true is I went on this podcast
0:52:24 of this young handsome guy who was supposed to be,
0:52:27 he was like the number 10 podcaster in the UK.
0:52:30 But I thought, “Oh, I wanna get to know people in the UK.”
0:52:31 And it was Diary of a CEO.
0:52:33 And I think I’ve been on his show four times now.
0:52:36 And the thing that just blew me away,
0:52:38 and this is two and a half years ago,
0:52:41 was he had probably six people in the room
0:52:46 and five of them were focused on camera work.
0:52:48 He had lighting, obviously amazing sound,
0:52:52 but swivel cameras and cameras on sleds,
0:52:54 getting different shots.
0:52:56 And he forces everyone to come into the studio
0:52:58 as does Rich Roll actually.
0:53:01 And the result is just these podcasts
0:53:03 that are just kind of visually arresting
0:53:04 and do really well.
0:53:09 And he also was testing, A/B testing like crazy buttons.
0:53:11 And I don’t know if you’ve seen his promos, but–
0:53:12 – They’re incredible.
0:53:13 – He’ll do something where I’ll say,
0:53:15 the secret to happiness is,
0:53:17 and then I’ll like goon, cut away and say,
0:53:21 tune in now, he just spends a ton of time
0:53:24 optimizing for YouTube before it was cool.
0:53:26 And the result is he’s now the number one podcaster
0:53:30 in Europe and I think he’s number nine in America.
0:53:32 I think he’s gonna be number one
0:53:36 because he understands the medium of YouTube.
0:53:39 He’s weaponizing and leveraging
0:53:42 what is now the biggest distribution platform
0:53:43 in podcasting, that’s YouTube.
0:53:45 So my prediction is the new Joe Rogan
0:53:47 or the person who’s gonna displace Joe Rogan
0:53:49 as the biggest podcaster in the world
0:53:52 is Steven Bartlett from Diary of CEO.
0:53:54 – But you’re missing someone.
0:53:54 – Ed Elson?
0:53:57 – Two of us, we’re investing in video.
0:54:00 We don’t have swivel cameras yet, but we’re working on it.
0:54:01 – Yeah, I think–
0:54:02 – We can– – I don’t wanna be that big.
0:54:05 I wanna have enough money just to have a second jet
0:54:07 in unlimited supply academy,
0:54:09 but I don’t see us as the number one podcast.
0:54:11 I think that, I think we wanna be,
0:54:12 well, we could be number one in business.
0:54:14 We’re talking about, by the way in a meeting today folks,
0:54:17 we’re talking about Ed going daily.
0:54:20 We’re talking about doing a daily property markets
0:54:23 to talk about the markets ’cause the news keeps coming.
0:54:24 But I think we could be number one in business.
0:54:26 We’re in the top 10 in business
0:54:27 and occasionally we’d pop into the top five,
0:54:30 but that guy, David Ramsey,
0:54:32 who keeps selling expensive mutual funds
0:54:34 and saying that you can pick a mutual fund.
0:54:37 – We could beat the Ramsey network, surely.
0:54:38 – Yeah.
0:54:39 – We gotta do that.
0:54:40 – I love shitposting our competition.
0:54:42 That’s so classy, isn’t it?
0:54:43 It’s so big of me.
0:54:45 But anyways, let’s go back to my prediction
0:54:47 where I can actually lift up young people.
0:54:51 Diary of a CEO, Steven Bartlett, he’s the new Joe Rogan.
0:54:53 – This episode was produced by Claire Miller
0:54:55 and engineered by Benjamin Spencer.
0:54:56 Our associate producer is Alison Weiss.
0:54:58 Mia Silverio is our research lead.
0:55:01 Isabella Kinsel is our research associate.
0:55:02 Drew Burris is our technical director.
0:55:05 And Catherine Dillon is our executive producer.
0:55:06 Thank you for listening to Prof.G Markets
0:55:08 from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
0:55:12 Join us on Thursday for our conversation with Alice Hahn
0:55:13 only on Prof.G Markets.
0:55:20 ♪ Lifetimes ♪
0:55:26 ♪ You help me ♪
0:55:32 ♪ In kind reunion ♪
0:55:39 ♪ As the world turns ♪
0:55:44 ♪ And the dark lights ♪
0:55:49 ♪ In love ♪
0:55:52 (gentle music)
0:55:58 – The key to good leadership is to motivate people
0:56:00 and give them a vested interest in the success
0:56:01 of the company I’m announcing today
0:56:03 that we’re doing really well.
0:56:07 And if the company and individuals such as yourself
0:56:09 continue to perform like this,
0:56:11 because I want to create motivation
0:56:13 that there’s a really good chance
0:56:15 if you guys continue to show the same type of talent
0:56:18 and commitment that I’ll be able to get a second plane.
0:56:20 (laughing)
0:56:23 That’s…
0:56:26 But I want you guys to just–
0:56:27 – I always know what it’s come to.
0:56:27 – I don’t want to promise anything.
0:56:28 – I don’t want to promise anything.
0:56:29 – It’s like sullen.
0:56:33 You start looking down at the floor and I just know it’s coming.
0:56:34 – It’s not sullen, it’s my age.
0:56:35 You’re getting a map.
0:56:38 If you continue to perform like this,
0:56:39 daddy might be able to get a Gulf Stream.
0:56:41 I want to motivate you.
0:56:43 I want to keep you in the game.
0:56:44 Super exciting.
0:56:46 I promise to send you photos.
0:56:47 – Okay.
0:56:49 – Seriously, Ed, something to look forward to.
0:56:51 (laughing)
0:56:53 Now get out there, little soldier.