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  • Alison Wood Brooks: Cracking the Conversation Code

    AI transcript
    0:00:02 (upbeat music)
    0:00:11 – What model roadcaster do you have?
    0:00:13 – You know what’s funny, it’s very above my pay grade.
    0:00:15 I’m in a band and somebody asked for advice
    0:00:18 from my bandmates about what kind of microphone to get.
    0:00:20 I’m wearing my husband’s headphones.
    0:00:21 He’s the drummer in our band.
    0:00:23 And then I have this roadcaster
    0:00:25 and I don’t know how to use it at all.
    0:00:28 All I know how to do is make like one funny sound effect.
    0:00:30 But it’s a roadcaster, I can look at it.
    0:00:31 It’s a roadcaster.
    0:00:34 – Oh, I have a roadcaster, too.
    0:00:35 – Roadcaster, too?
    0:00:36 – Yeah, I’ll play this.
    0:00:37 – Yeah, I can’t hear.
    0:00:39 – So, yeah.
    0:00:41 (upbeat music)
    0:00:46 (laughing)
    0:00:47 – I love it, I love it.
    0:00:48 I was giving it to you
    0:00:51 and you thought it was mine, let’s see.
    0:00:53 – I can change my voice, I can have my dress.
    0:00:56 (laughing)
    0:00:58 (laughing)
    0:01:02 – Podcasters just wanna have fun, so.
    0:01:03 (laughing)
    0:01:05 – That’s my only trick, guy.
    0:01:08 (laughing)
    0:01:10 – So, is today launch day?
    0:01:12 – Today is launch day.
    0:01:15 You’re catching me on such a crazy day.
    0:01:17 It’s so miraculous.
    0:01:19 – I figured that out last night.
    0:01:21 Yeah, today is launch day and I said,
    0:01:23 maybe her PR firm made a mistake
    0:01:27 and they didn’t intend to take up her morning on launch day.
    0:01:28 I feel so bad.
    0:01:30 Are you sure you have time to do this?
    0:01:31 – You’re so kind.
    0:01:34 It’s such a welcome distraction.
    0:01:36 Otherwise, what am I gonna be doing?
    0:01:39 Just hitting refresh on the sales page, I don’t know.
    0:01:41 (laughing)
    0:01:44 – You’re not on the Today Show or Joe Rogan or anything.
    0:01:47 – Well, I went on Mel Robbins yesterday.
    0:01:50 When my kids were home on a snowy MLK day,
    0:01:52 I went and visited Mel Robbins
    0:01:54 and today I get to talk to you.
    0:01:57 (laughing)
    0:02:00 – You need to talk to your PR firm to get better people
    0:02:02 for your launch day than me.
    0:02:03 Oh my God.
    0:02:04 (laughing)
    0:02:07 – You’re too humble, too humble.
    0:02:10 – Oh shit, I forgot to introduce you.
    0:02:13 So, listen everybody, I’m Guy Kawasaki.
    0:02:15 This is the Remarkable People podcast
    0:02:18 and we’re on the mission to make you remarkable
    0:02:21 and today we have the remarkable Alison Wood Brooks.
    0:02:24 She’s a professor at Harvard Business School.
    0:02:28 I like to call her the Queen of Conversation
    0:02:30 because she teaches a course
    0:02:33 on how to be a great conversationalist
    0:02:37 and we’re honored to have her on her launch day
    0:02:39 and as an author, I can tell you,
    0:02:42 launch day is not an ideal day to do a long interview.
    0:02:44 You got so much other things to do.
    0:02:47 So, her PR firm screwed up and scheduled her
    0:02:48 on the wrong day.
    0:02:49 So, we’re gonna make the best of it.
    0:02:50 – We gotta forgive them.
    0:02:52 You’ve done a wonderful job.
    0:02:54 I get to talk to you, Guy, come on.
    0:02:57 (laughing)
    0:02:59 – So, I know we’re supposed to start with small talk.
    0:03:01 So, how’s the weather in Boston?
    0:03:03 – You know what, it is beautiful here.
    0:03:06 We had a snow storm and I love snow.
    0:03:09 It’s so gorgeous and my kids went sledding yesterday.
    0:03:11 It was very picturesque.
    0:03:12 Where are you in the world?
    0:03:13 Are you in Silicon Valley?
    0:03:17 – Yes, I’m in Santa Cruz and we have a gorgeous day today.
    0:03:20 Madison and I are gonna go surfing later today too.
    0:03:22 – Oh, imagine that.
    0:03:24 My kids were surfing on the snow yesterday
    0:03:25 and you get to actually go surfing.
    0:03:26 That sounds nice.
    0:03:28 (laughing)
    0:03:32 – I fully understand your hierarchy of small talk,
    0:03:34 directed talk and deep talk.
    0:03:36 So, we gotta engage in some small talk
    0:03:38 to observe your book, right?
    0:03:39 – That’s right.
    0:03:40 No pressure.
    0:03:42 – So, I gotta pitch you some soft balls
    0:03:43 in this small talk phase.
    0:03:46 What’s something that you’re really lousy at
    0:03:47 that you love to do?
    0:03:49 – I love that question.
    0:03:50 It’s one of my favorites.
    0:03:53 One of my really lousy at what I love to do.
    0:03:55 Probably cooking.
    0:03:58 I don’t cook often, but when I do, it’s so soothing
    0:04:02 and it’s so cozy and warm and I’m so bad at it, guy.
    0:04:03 I’m not a good cook.
    0:04:06 I have no business being in the kitchen,
    0:04:09 but I do love creating a meal for my family
    0:04:11 every once in a while.
    0:04:14 – Well, you know, they have this thing called home fresh
    0:04:16 and it comes in a box and everything’s in it.
    0:04:20 They have very good meals in that box.
    0:04:21 – Here’s the challenge.
    0:04:24 I’ve got three kids and they’re such picky eaters.
    0:04:27 I feel like I can’t get, there’s no rest.
    0:04:30 The Venn diagram of foods that everybody in my family
    0:04:34 will eat is a possibly tiny overlapping zone.
    0:04:38 And I don’t think a home fresh finds the zone.
    0:04:39 But we’ll see.
    0:04:41 I’ll look into it.
    0:04:44 – Just go to Costco and get the dollar half hot dog.
    0:04:44 That’s good enough.
    0:04:46 – Exactly, that’s the over, you found it.
    0:04:50 That is the overlapping part of the Venn diagram, hot dogs.
    0:04:51 – I’ve had four children.
    0:04:54 I know how that Venn diagram works.
    0:04:56 – How old are your kids now, guys?
    0:04:58 – They are no longer kids.
    0:05:03 They’re 19, 23, 30 and 32 or something like that.
    0:05:08 I’m a grandfather, I’m a new grandfather.
    0:05:09 – Congratulations.
    0:05:11 How many grandkids do you have?
    0:05:12 – One that I know of.
    0:05:17 – One that you know of, a baby or a toddler?
    0:05:20 – Three months old.
    0:05:22 – Congratulations, you’re a new grandfather.
    0:05:25 That’s a huge deal.
    0:05:28 – So I saw some interviews of you
    0:05:30 and you were complimenting this podcast
    0:05:32 about how many questions he had
    0:05:33 and how he was jumping around
    0:05:36 and I’m gonna set the new standard for you today, okay?
    0:05:40 – Oh, I love it, I love it.
    0:05:43 I’ve had some competitiveness in you guys, I like that.
    0:05:47 – You can ask Madison, I’m a very competitive person
    0:05:50 and to answer the question that I asked you,
    0:05:53 I’m lousy at surfing, but I love to do it.
    0:05:56 So that’s kind of where I’m at.
    0:05:57 First question for you is,
    0:06:00 you know that person in your book
    0:06:02 where you had a conversation
    0:06:04 and you told her that her boyfriend
    0:06:05 wasn’t good enough for you?
    0:06:07 – Yes, I do.
    0:06:08 – Are they still married?
    0:06:10 – They’re still married, they have children,
    0:06:13 they’re, as far as I can tell, happily married
    0:06:18 and I did get a text from her when she received the book
    0:06:21 and I hadn’t warned her about the story.
    0:06:26 So we are still friends and everything’s copacetic
    0:06:28 and she actually did not remember
    0:06:31 that number thing happening.
    0:06:34 She didn’t, and I think I was very relieved
    0:06:36 that she didn’t remember.
    0:06:39 – So you’re telling me that to this day,
    0:06:42 you don’t know if she was offended by that question?
    0:06:44 – Correct, and at this point,
    0:06:46 I don’t think she knows if she was offended.
    0:06:48 I mean, this is something that’s true.
    0:06:52 I do think this is a very vivid thing about conversation.
    0:06:54 It’s easy to get hung up on things
    0:06:57 when you feel like they don’t go well,
    0:06:59 but you have no idea how other people
    0:07:01 are experiencing a conversation
    0:07:04 or how they’re experiencing you
    0:07:06 and truly we had an amazing friendship.
    0:07:07 It was a very close friend of mine.
    0:07:10 Honestly, I did that to a lot of my friends.
    0:07:11 At that point in my life,
    0:07:12 I felt like it was very much my place
    0:07:15 to be protective of all of my girlfriends
    0:07:17 who I thought were amazing
    0:07:20 and no partner was worthy of them.
    0:07:24 And so I just went around sprinkling feedback left and right
    0:07:26 of like, this guy’s not good enough for you.
    0:07:28 And now in retrospect, I’m like,
    0:07:29 well, that was an interesting phase of life,
    0:07:33 maybe not my place to be tossing that around so casually,
    0:07:36 but learning how other people experience
    0:07:38 a conversation like that is very enlightening.
    0:07:41 I mean, in the moment, you really have no idea
    0:07:45 how people hear you or what they’re learning from you.
    0:07:48 – Maybe Madison should introduce you to her boyfriend
    0:07:51 so you can check him out for her.
    0:07:54 – Now she’s gonna be scared that I’ll write
    0:07:56 about their relationship in a book
    0:07:58 and have it be in print for the all the time.
    0:08:00 – Well, the test will be,
    0:08:02 if you don’t like Madison’s boyfriend,
    0:08:07 then she’ll probably be living happily ever after with him
    0:08:09 based on her track record.
    0:08:11 – That’s right, if there is one clear take away from this,
    0:08:13 it’s that my instincts are not good
    0:08:15 about other people’s love lives.
    0:08:17 (laughing)
    0:08:20 – I can hardly wait till your daughter’s have boyfriends.
    0:08:21 Oh, that’s-
    0:08:22 – I know, I know.
    0:08:25 I have two boys and a little girl.
    0:08:27 – Oh, you only have one girl.
    0:08:28 – There are only nine, seven and five,
    0:08:31 but it does take a lot of self-control for me
    0:08:34 as like a psychologist and just,
    0:08:35 I’m obsessed with relationships
    0:08:37 so to not ask them every day,
    0:08:38 like what’s going on?
    0:08:39 Who’s gonna crush on who?
    0:08:40 What’s got how you feelin’?
    0:08:41 What’s new?
    0:08:43 (laughing)
    0:08:45 Too soon, I just want the break.
    0:08:47 – Is she still licking your nose?
    0:08:49 – Oh, you know what, guys?
    0:08:52 She does, she’s in kindergarten now
    0:08:54 and she is very funny.
    0:08:57 She’s very silly and she’s so proud
    0:09:01 that she is the first story in the book, her name’s Charlotte.
    0:09:05 And she knows that story
    0:09:06 and she doesn’t remember it
    0:09:09 because when it happened, she was a baby, she was one.
    0:09:10 But I’ve retold it to her
    0:09:12 and now she hears from other people,
    0:09:15 “Hey, this is the story so cute at the beginning of the book.”
    0:09:20 And so she’s very proud that she is, you know, this book star.
    0:09:22 And now it’s this inside joke between the two of us.
    0:09:23 Just last night, I was like,
    0:09:25 “Charlotte, my book’s coming out tomorrow.”
    0:09:27 And she came right over and she goes,
    0:09:28 “I lick you.”
    0:09:30 And licked me right on the nose.
    0:09:31 (laughing)
    0:09:32 So cute.
    0:09:36 Even the boys, even the boys now say, “I lick you.”
    0:09:38 It’s a family, ongoing family joke.
    0:09:42 – I guess that’s what social distancing is
    0:09:44 in the Brooks family.
    0:09:47 – Yeah, there’s no distance in a family like ours.
    0:09:48 Oh my God.
    0:09:52 – So I happen to notice that
    0:09:54 there’s a lot of licking stories in your book
    0:09:57 because you talk about Carrie Fisher’s dog
    0:10:01 licking her hand during Terry Gross’ interview.
    0:10:03 So there’s some licking thing.
    0:10:04 – There is a licking theme.
    0:10:07 I thought about it as I was writing it
    0:10:10 and I was like, “Why is there so much licking in this book?
    0:10:13 “What do I kind of invite to my giving to people?
    0:10:14 “You’re so right.
    0:10:16 “What a great reader you are, guy.
    0:10:17 “It’s true.”
    0:10:22 – Well, I mean, something like that sticks out.
    0:10:27 – Okay, so now shifting gears a little bit.
    0:10:32 Your course at Harvard is Hall to Talk Gooder, right?
    0:10:34 – That’s right.
    0:10:36 – So I want to know if you are inspired
    0:10:39 by the Think Different campaign of Apple
    0:10:43 where you purposely do something dramatically incorrect.
    0:10:45 – I wasn’t directly thinking of Apple,
    0:10:47 but I do think the principle is the same.
    0:10:50 My intention was just be different.
    0:10:51 I mean, to be different.
    0:10:53 And at Harvard, to be different,
    0:10:55 it doesn’t require much levity.
    0:11:01 There’s not a lot of silliness.
    0:11:03 I think it’s a weakness of ours.
    0:11:06 And I really wanted to make that point in the course title
    0:11:08 when it’s sitting in the course catalog
    0:11:12 alongside democracy in America
    0:11:14 and global capitalism.
    0:11:17 And then you get to this course as how to talk gooder.
    0:11:18 It jumps out at you.
    0:11:20 It’s very different.
    0:11:22 There’s a double meaning too
    0:11:24 because there’s a theme of kindness in the book.
    0:11:26 Gooder is in the sense of like,
    0:11:29 what does it mean to be a good person?
    0:11:31 But also better in all the ways
    0:11:33 we’re hoping to be better communicators.
    0:11:39 – Maybe Susan Acker and Naomi Bagadonuts
    0:11:42 are gonna rename their course because of that, right?
    0:11:45 ‘Cause they have a really plain name.
    0:11:46 – That’s right.
    0:11:49 Yes, their course is called Humor Serious Business.
    0:11:51 Their book is Humor Seriously.
    0:11:53 I visited their course.
    0:11:54 They have visited my course.
    0:11:58 Actually, Naomi visits my course every time I teach it.
    0:11:59 She’s such a talented teacher.
    0:12:02 She comes during our Levity module and talk.
    0:12:04 So we’re very much on the same page.
    0:12:05 Maybe I can get them to rename their course,
    0:12:07 something even sillier.
    0:12:11 – Okay, I notice, you’re gonna figure out
    0:12:13 that I notice the damnedest things,
    0:12:16 but I notice that when you introduce Naomi,
    0:12:19 you introduced her as a comedian,
    0:12:20 not as a professor.
    0:12:22 Was that an inside joke?
    0:12:25 Or did you have a lousy copy editor who didn’t check?
    0:12:26 – You know what?
    0:12:27 Probably both.
    0:12:28 No, I’m kidding.
    0:12:32 Actually, the way that I introduce people in the book
    0:12:34 is the way that I think of them in my mind,
    0:12:36 how I categorize them.
    0:12:38 So Naomi’s a professor,
    0:12:40 but she’s not a behavioral scientist
    0:12:44 in the way that so many of my professor friends are scientists.
    0:12:47 In my mind, the value add of my relationship with Naomi
    0:12:49 is that she is really a practitioner.
    0:12:50 She’s out there in the world.
    0:12:52 She’s teaching humor to people
    0:12:54 who have been incarcerated in Palo Alto.
    0:12:56 She’s teaching humor workshops.
    0:12:57 She’s out there.
    0:13:00 She’s consulting with so many companies.
    0:13:02 And that’s a different role.
    0:13:04 That’s a different job than what so many
    0:13:07 of my behavioral science research friends are doing.
    0:13:11 – I can just see Katie Milkman and Angela Duckworth
    0:13:15 in a prison in Philadelphia teaching the grit.
    0:13:17 Let me teach you grit, sir.
    0:13:18 – Hey, they would do it.
    0:13:20 I mean, if you could get a large scale,
    0:13:22 large enough scale prison,
    0:13:24 they would, I’m sure love to get in there,
    0:13:27 especially Angela and Katie.
    0:13:28 They’re amazing.
    0:13:31 – They’re gonna give a whole new meaning
    0:13:33 to the Milkman delivers.
    0:13:35 – Exactly.
    0:13:37 One of the studies that I talk about in the book
    0:13:39 is that about parole hearings.
    0:13:41 So we’ve had the lick theme.
    0:13:44 Now we’re picking up on a prison theme.
    0:13:48 We moved on from licking to prison.
    0:13:50 It’s showing we’re going up the pyramid.
    0:13:51 – That’s right.
    0:13:53 Yeah, exactly.
    0:13:54 Reaper and Reaper.
    0:14:03 – Shifting gears again.
    0:14:08 Do you think people can have a conversation with an LLM?
    0:14:11 – It’s a good question.
    0:14:12 I think it goes back to this question
    0:14:15 of what are your goals in conversation?
    0:14:20 I think an LLM, an AI, a chatbot are quite good
    0:14:25 at fulfilling some of our conversational needs.
    0:14:30 It’s why there’s such great promise in companionship
    0:14:32 through AI or through LLMs
    0:14:35 because they can help us not feel alone.
    0:14:37 They can help us have fun.
    0:14:39 They’re an incredible sounding board.
    0:14:41 They help feed good ideas to us.
    0:14:46 There’s so many needs we have that a non-human entity
    0:14:47 can fulfill.
    0:14:51 Here’s where I get a little bit worried.
    0:14:52 I mean, there’s a lot that’s worrisome,
    0:14:55 but one of the things that I’ve been thinking about
    0:15:00 is something that humans struggle with in conversation
    0:15:03 is getting past our own self-centeredness,
    0:15:07 our own egocentrism that we focus so singularly
    0:15:10 and naturally on our own point of view.
    0:15:13 In the book, we take this position of a kind conversation,
    0:15:16 a good conversation that relentlessly pushes themselves
    0:15:18 to think about the other person’s perspective,
    0:15:20 not just think about it, but ask about it.
    0:15:22 Ask questions, learn as much as you can
    0:15:25 about what’s really in the other person’s mind
    0:15:26 because we’re bad at guessing, right?
    0:15:30 We’re bad at knowing what other people are thinking about.
    0:15:32 So we have these egocentric tendencies,
    0:15:34 we like talking about ourselves,
    0:15:36 we like thinking about our own perspective,
    0:15:38 and we have to really work hard to get over that.
    0:15:43 When you’re interacting with a non-human entity,
    0:15:46 you don’t need to do that at all.
    0:15:48 The whole point is to get the entity
    0:15:51 to fulfill your needs as much as possible.
    0:15:54 It’s completely self-centered in a way.
    0:15:56 You don’t need to relentlessly push yourself
    0:15:58 to understand its perspective.
    0:16:00 It doesn’t really have a perspective.
    0:16:01 It doesn’t have needs.
    0:16:06 A chatbot, an AI, an LLM, it doesn’t have needs
    0:16:08 and it doesn’t have desires.
    0:16:11 And so what I worry about is,
    0:16:16 if we are interacting with non-human entities too much,
    0:16:20 is it training us to be even more selfish
    0:16:21 than we already are?
    0:16:28 – That’s a scary thought, I hope that Sam Altman
    0:16:31 and the people at OpenAI read this book
    0:16:35 because it might improve their agent aspect
    0:16:37 of LLMs, right?
    0:16:37 – For sure.
    0:16:39 Some companies have come over the years,
    0:16:41 many people and companies have come to me
    0:16:44 looking for advice and guidance and consulting
    0:16:47 about how to make their bots more human-like.
    0:16:50 How can we make them better at conversation?
    0:16:53 At first, I was flattered and excited to engage with them
    0:16:54 and then I sort of stopped
    0:16:58 because I’m just not sure that that’s what that means
    0:17:00 and if that’s actually helpful to us at this point.
    0:17:04 – There’s a lot of upside there
    0:17:08 when every voicemail system says press one for tech support,
    0:17:11 press two for sales, press three, four, executive directory,
    0:17:14 press four if you wanna get this menu over again,
    0:17:16 I’m sure you can improve that.
    0:17:18 – I definitely can, I definitely can.
    0:17:20 I would be interested to hear,
    0:17:23 so for people who are working on LLMs and bots,
    0:17:25 I would love to hear what they think of the insights
    0:17:28 and talk and how much of it is translatable
    0:17:30 to bot development and how much is not, right?
    0:17:33 Like how much is uniquely, the human mind
    0:17:36 is uniquely positioned to do.
    0:17:40 – Do you think that you could use an LLM
    0:17:44 to train you to be a better conversationalist?
    0:17:47 You could prompt it with what are some great topics
    0:17:50 because you say it’s okay to create a topic list, right?
    0:17:53 – So this is where LLMs can be so helpful.
    0:17:56 I think as a training mechanism for a human
    0:17:58 to become a better conversationalist for sure.
    0:18:01 In fact, before LLMs became a thing,
    0:18:05 I developed a case at HBS with a company called Summersion,
    0:18:06 which is essentially this,
    0:18:09 they created like simulated conversation partners
    0:18:13 so that my students could practice interacting
    0:18:15 with people that are different from who they would normally
    0:18:18 encounter in their normal lives and get like lots of reps.
    0:18:20 You just talk, talk, talk, talk, talk, talk
    0:18:22 and get lots of different responses
    0:18:24 from this simulated conversation partner.
    0:18:26 So an LLM could do a lot of things.
    0:18:29 My sister recently asked ChatGPT like,
    0:18:32 “Hey, I want to have better conversations with my parents.”
    0:18:35 So then she fed information about our parents.
    0:18:38 She was like, “What would people who live in upstate New York
    0:18:41 “in the Finger Lakes who have nine grandchildren
    0:18:44 “or 72 years old, what would they want
    0:18:48 “their adult children to ask them about?”
    0:18:49 And it gave great ideas.
    0:18:52 It was a great way to brainstorm topics
    0:18:55 because the LLM has a lot more data about people
    0:18:57 that meet those demographic characteristics
    0:18:59 than we might guess.
    0:19:02 Then like we as young, you know, 40-somethings
    0:19:04 could guess that they would want to talk about.
    0:19:07 So seeding topics, brainstorming topics is a great idea.
    0:19:11 Simulating conversation and practicing, great.
    0:19:14 Pushing us to become more kind, I’m not so sure.
    0:19:19 – I think you should ask your parents,
    0:19:21 vis-a-vis your grandchildren,
    0:19:26 have you created a generation skipping trust for my kids?
    0:19:28 That’s the most important question
    0:19:31 you could ask your parents for your grandchildren.
    0:19:34 – I’m adding that to my topic, let’s write now, guy.
    0:19:36 – Generation skipping trust
    0:19:39 so that they don’t give you something, you pay tax,
    0:19:41 you give it to your kids, they pay tax.
    0:19:45 It skips your generation, go straight to their generation.
    0:19:47 – That’s amazing, that’s amazing.
    0:19:50 – I went to law school for two weeks and dropped out.
    0:19:52 So, you know, I picked that right up.
    0:19:53 – The only thing that you learned
    0:19:56 during your two weeks of law school about generation skipping
    0:19:58 trust? – It was so valuable.
    0:20:00 Imagine if I had stayed two years, my God.
    0:20:03 – Imagine, imagine, imagine the hacks.
    0:20:06 – I’d be teaching at Harvard Law School,
    0:20:07 we would be colleagues.
    0:20:11 – But you can’t surf here, guy.
    0:20:14 You can’t surf, I mean, I guess you can in the summer,
    0:20:15 but not in the winter.
    0:20:18 – I love a good acronym.
    0:20:23 And your acronym is TOC, T-A-L-K.
    0:20:26 So, please explain what TOC stands for.
    0:20:28 – Can I tell you through this book,
    0:20:30 I’ve already learned that acronyms are very polarizing.
    0:20:32 Some people really, really love them
    0:20:35 and find them to be so helpful to help them remember stuff.
    0:20:36 Other people are very like,
    0:20:39 come from a very anti-acronym place.
    0:20:41 – I’m pro-acronym.
    0:20:42 – I’m also pro-acronym.
    0:20:44 I think really good mnemonic device to help remember.
    0:20:47 But I hope this acronym, people find very helpful.
    0:20:50 T stands for topics.
    0:20:53 A stands for asking questions.
    0:20:58 L is for levity and K is for kindness.
    0:20:59 – And so those four things
    0:21:02 are the foundation of great conversation.
    0:21:04 – Yeah, the ambition.
    0:21:06 And I think, I hope it delivers on this promise,
    0:21:11 is that it provides a comprehensive landscape
    0:21:15 of conversation where, so lots of prior work,
    0:21:18 I mean, if you focus only on persuasion
    0:21:22 or you focus only on influence or you only on negotiation,
    0:21:24 only on relationship development,
    0:21:27 the problem is that you’re missing out on how those things,
    0:21:30 those goals trade off with other important goals,
    0:21:33 like having fun or maintaining privacy
    0:21:36 or like just liking to be with people.
    0:21:39 And so it’s overly narrow view.
    0:21:41 The promise of this acronym in this book
    0:21:42 is a broader perspective.
    0:21:45 Like, let’s consider all of the things
    0:21:47 that we want as humans at one time
    0:21:50 and then come up with these four reminders,
    0:21:52 these four guardrails that are gonna help us
    0:21:54 do all of the things better.
    0:21:57 – May I make a suggestion with your acronym?
    0:21:59 – How dare you?
    0:22:00 How dare you guys?
    0:22:02 Yes, I can’t wait to, I can’t wait.
    0:22:03 – What do you mean, I read in your book,
    0:22:05 it’s okay to bring up sensitive questions.
    0:22:08 – I can’t change it at this point, Guy,
    0:22:10 but yes, I’m all ears, I can’t wait to hear.
    0:22:14 – Okay, so I think you should change
    0:22:18 ASKING, ING, to ASKS,
    0:22:23 because then all elements of your acronyms will be nouns.
    0:22:26 – You’re right, it is a jarring gerund.
    0:22:28 It is a jarring change of grammar.
    0:22:33 But here’s the thing, when I hear the word ASKS, the noun,
    0:22:36 I think when people use the word ASK as a noun,
    0:22:40 they’re usually talking about, I have a big ASK.
    0:22:43 And there they mean, I’m asking for something.
    0:22:47 I’m gonna ask you to give them something that serves me,
    0:22:51 which is totally against the spirit of ASKING in this book,
    0:22:54 which is like, no, you’re ASKING for the sake
    0:22:58 of information exchange and learning.
    0:22:59 – But I would make the case
    0:23:02 that as a Harvard Business School professor,
    0:23:05 and someone who’s already broken the bounds
    0:23:07 of good grammar with gooder,
    0:23:12 you can change the meaning of ASK to just be a synonym
    0:23:16 for questions, for generating conversation.
    0:23:19 – You know what, I was talking to Patrick McGinnis
    0:23:21 the other day, he was interviewing me about the book.
    0:23:22 He has this great podcast.
    0:23:25 He’s the guy who invented the word FOMO,
    0:23:26 fear of missing out.
    0:23:29 And we had like a jolly good bonding moment
    0:23:33 because of our shared experience of inventing acronyms.
    0:23:37 I like this guy, I like the idea of the lofty goal
    0:23:40 of me changing the whole meaning of the word ASK.
    0:23:42 I like this, I like the ambition of it.
    0:23:43 I’m gonna keep it in mind.
    0:23:45 I will tell people that this is your vote.
    0:23:47 When I say A is for ASKING and I’ll say,
    0:23:50 and guy, Kawasaki told me it should be ASK.
    0:23:56 – It’s my OCD Chicago manual of style upbringing.
    0:23:57 What can I say?
    0:23:58 – I applaud you.
    0:24:02 I applaud your OCD grammatical ways, thank you.
    0:24:06 – We should ask Angela Duckworth what she thinks.
    0:24:07 – Let’s call her in.
    0:24:08 I can call her right now.
    0:24:10 You want to dial in, where you’re in?
    0:24:12 (laughing)
    0:24:14 Angela, what do you think?
    0:24:17 – So, you know, I want people to read the book.
    0:24:19 So I’m not gonna force you to explain
    0:24:20 each of the four things,
    0:24:25 but I noticed that you busted some myths in this book.
    0:24:29 So I’m gonna mention what I think four myths you bust
    0:24:32 and how and why you busted them, all right?
    0:24:35 So first of all, myth number one is small talk
    0:24:37 is a waste of time.
    0:24:39 Tell me why that’s wrong.
    0:24:40 – It is wrong.
    0:24:42 Everybody feels like it’s a waste of time
    0:24:44 because it’s so unpleasant.
    0:24:46 Everybody knows that once you’re there,
    0:24:48 it’s shallow, meaningless, empty,
    0:24:50 start to have these alarm bells go off like,
    0:24:52 “Oh, we’re not doing conversation right.
    0:24:53 “We gotta get to the real stuff.
    0:24:55 “We gotta get to the productive stuff,
    0:24:56 “the meaningful stuff.”
    0:24:58 We all know that feeling.
    0:25:01 The problem isn’t with small talk itself,
    0:25:04 it’s that we get stuck in it for too long.
    0:25:06 Small talk is a very important social ritual.
    0:25:08 It’s where conversation has to start,
    0:25:10 especially between strangers
    0:25:12 or people who don’t know each other that well
    0:25:14 or who haven’t seen each other in a while.
    0:25:17 It’s a very well-worn social ritual.
    0:25:19 That’s how we start conversations.
    0:25:21 The point though is to use it as a place
    0:25:24 to search for better stuff.
    0:25:27 And ideally to search for better stuff quickly.
    0:25:29 I wanna hear people talking about surfing
    0:25:31 within the first four turns of a conversation
    0:25:33 and how much they love it
    0:25:36 and how their kids are surfing down the snow
    0:25:38 rather than like, “Oh yeah, it’s cold.
    0:25:40 “Oh yeah, I don’t like the cold.
    0:25:42 “It’s warmer here in California.”
    0:25:44 And a lot of conversations do stay
    0:25:48 in that very mundane world for much too long.
    0:25:51 So the trick is just making sure you look for the doorknobs
    0:25:53 to better or more interesting rooms
    0:25:55 and get the courage to go through those doorways,
    0:25:57 go to better places.
    0:26:00 – Is there a rule of thumb about when to make the switch?
    0:26:02 – It would be weird if right away
    0:26:06 I had been like, “Tell me about your mother.”
    0:26:08 That’s the best jarring.
    0:26:10 It’s almost as jarring as the asking Jaron
    0:26:13 in the middle of the talk, across the–
    0:26:17 – Well, we got from weather in Boston to licking dogs
    0:26:19 and licking noses pretty quick, right?
    0:26:21 – Yeah, I think both of us are people
    0:26:25 who are very hungry to move past small talk.
    0:26:28 But I don’t, but we don’t dread it, right?
    0:26:29 Like you have to do it.
    0:26:31 You just have, it’s the starting place.
    0:26:34 It’s the launch pad to go somewhere else.
    0:26:36 And some people have developed the skill
    0:26:39 of moving away from it more quickly and more smoothly.
    0:26:41 And everybody can develop that skill.
    0:26:43 – Okay, myth number two.
    0:26:46 I think a lot of people would say it’s kind of tacky
    0:26:50 to prepare a topic list in advance of meeting people
    0:26:52 that you shouldn’t pre-plan the topics
    0:26:53 you’re gonna talk about.
    0:26:55 So bust this myth.
    0:26:57 – I’m so happy to bust this myth.
    0:26:59 I love the word tacky.
    0:27:02 When we survey people, when we say,
    0:27:05 imagine prepping topics before a conversation,
    0:27:07 especially with someone you know well,
    0:27:10 like your spouse or your lover.
    0:27:11 Yeah, look at your topic list.
    0:27:13 Let’s go.
    0:27:14 I love it.
    0:27:17 So a lot of people are very averse to this idea.
    0:27:19 They’re like, I shouldn’t have to brainstorm topics.
    0:27:21 I’m gonna know what to talk about
    0:27:22 once I’m in a conversation,
    0:27:25 especially with people that I know well.
    0:27:27 In the experience of it, in reality,
    0:27:29 once you get to a conversation,
    0:27:33 having thought ahead about it is incredibly helpful,
    0:27:35 not just for a podcast interview or for a work meeting
    0:27:38 where you’ve brainstormed an agenda,
    0:27:41 but even for conversations with people that you love
    0:27:43 and know well and see every day
    0:27:45 because it forces you to just think about them.
    0:27:47 It’s a perspective taking nudge where you’re like,
    0:27:50 oh yeah, what’s going on in my partner’s life?
    0:27:52 What do I really need to remember to ask them?
    0:27:55 It’s a way to show them that you care
    0:27:58 and that it helps you remember to raise the topics
    0:28:00 that you should be raising with them.
    0:28:02 Make things more enjoyable, less anxiety-inducing,
    0:28:04 smoother, more productive, all the good things.
    0:28:06 – You know, there is no one who is more positive
    0:28:10 about AI than Guy, and I often do this,
    0:28:13 and I think AI is smarter than me.
    0:28:14 There’s no doubt in my mind,
    0:28:16 chat, GPT is smarter than me.
    0:28:17 – Oh yeah, smarter than all of us for sure.
    0:28:21 I mean, my definition, it’s like as smart as the masses,
    0:28:22 right?
    0:28:22 With the crowd.
    0:28:27 – But one thing AI absolutely cannot do that I can do
    0:28:31 is come up with questions and topics for a podcast.
    0:28:33 Because before every podcast, I usually ask,
    0:28:38 what should I ask Katie Milken or Angela Duckworth
    0:28:39 or Steve Wolfram?
    0:28:41 And they always come up with really boring questions
    0:28:44 like what was the most exciting part of your career?
    0:28:46 What do you look forward to, et cetera, et cetera.
    0:28:50 And if there is ever a day where I ask,
    0:28:54 what should I ask Allison in a podcast?
    0:28:58 And the LLM says, Guy, ask her why she talks so much
    0:29:02 about licking, that’s the day that AI has arrived.
    0:29:04 – Why do you think that is?
    0:29:05 Do you think it’s a unique skill set
    0:29:07 that you have as an individual
    0:29:09 or do you think it’s a broader human ability?
    0:29:13 We’re just better at knowing or anticipating
    0:29:16 what will be fun and interesting to talk about
    0:29:17 with other people.
    0:29:20 – I think it’s because using your vernacular
    0:29:24 of system one and system two, I’m about system 10.
    0:29:25 That’s why.
    0:29:28 – Say more.
    0:29:29 – Okay, wait, more mids.
    0:29:31 I got two more mids.
    0:29:32 – Oh yeah, that’s right, keep going.
    0:29:33 Sorry, don’t let me derail you.
    0:29:37 – So myth number three,
    0:29:40 it’s bad to ask too many questions.
    0:29:43 – Oh, I love busting this myth.
    0:29:45 Everybody can think of a person.
    0:29:47 They can think of a person or think of a conversation
    0:29:50 where they were annoyed that somebody asked too many questions.
    0:29:52 It felt like an interrogation.
    0:29:55 That memory is so salient that it leads us to believe
    0:29:57 that you can ask too many questions
    0:30:01 when in most contexts, for most people,
    0:30:04 it’s either impossible to ask too many questions
    0:30:06 or the number of questions that you would need to ask
    0:30:09 to get to that annoying point is so extremely high
    0:30:12 that you almost can’t possibly get there.
    0:30:15 This is true particularly in cooperative conversations
    0:30:18 where you’re collaborating or you’re on a date
    0:30:20 or you’re just there to have fun, connect with people.
    0:30:23 That’s a big chunk of the conversations we have in our life,
    0:30:26 our cooperative conversations.
    0:30:30 And even in competitive, conflictual conversations
    0:30:31 where you need to negotiate something.
    0:30:36 – My fourth myth is that it is bad to ask sensitive questions.
    0:30:42 – It’s bad to not ask sensitive questions.
    0:30:43 It’s terribly bad.
    0:30:46 It means you’re going to get stuck in small talk world,
    0:30:50 mundane, meaningless, unproductive world forever.
    0:30:54 We have all kinds of fears about asking sensitive questions.
    0:30:55 We don’t want to hurt people’s feelings.
    0:30:56 We don’t want to seem rude.
    0:30:58 We don’t want to seem intrusive.
    0:31:00 We don’t want to seem incompetent, right?
    0:31:04 Sometimes we worry that asking a question will make it look
    0:31:06 like we should already know the answer to it.
    0:31:09 In truth, asking sensitive questions
    0:31:13 is the most direct pathway to connection, to learning,
    0:31:17 to teaching, to, ironically, even to privacy, right?
    0:31:20 Because only by asking a sensitive question,
    0:31:22 can you learn where somebody’s personal boundary is
    0:31:23 where they can say, actually,
    0:31:25 I’m not comfortable talking about that.
    0:31:27 Otherwise, you’ll never find it.
    0:31:30 And you can never learn how to, you know,
    0:31:31 where are their boundaries?
    0:31:32 What are they comfortable talking about
    0:31:33 and not talking about?
    0:31:36 So, yes, we need to ask more sensitive questions.
    0:31:38 – So how much do you make
    0:31:40 as a Harvard Business School professor?
    0:31:41 – That’s such a good question.
    0:31:43 (laughing)
    0:31:44 – Love it.
    0:31:45 I’ll tell you what, book deals help,
    0:31:48 book deals help you earn a lot more.
    0:31:49 And I think that’s why a lot of professors
    0:31:52 are writing these trade books.
    0:31:54 – I need a number here.
    0:31:56 (laughing)
    0:31:58 – I’m still not tenured.
    0:31:59 I’m a junior faculty member.
    0:32:01 So I actually don’t know
    0:32:03 what my tenured faculty colleagues make.
    0:32:06 – I’m asking you, not your tenured faculty colleagues.
    0:32:11 You think you can just avoid my sensitive questions.
    0:32:12 – But I, can I be real with you?
    0:32:17 My husband is a financial advisor.
    0:32:20 And I don’t even know how much money I need.
    0:32:21 – Okay, okay.
    0:32:24 – The money flows, the money flows to my husband.
    0:32:26 – I learned from your book
    0:32:29 that I learned from your book
    0:32:32 that you have to learn when to switch topics.
    0:32:33 – I actually want to answer your question.
    0:32:35 I think the sincere answer to your question
    0:32:37 is more than enough.
    0:32:40 Too much, I mean too much.
    0:32:41 – Speaking of tactics,
    0:32:46 so do you think it’s better to switch too many topics
    0:32:51 or what’s worse, too fast or too slow switching?
    0:32:52 – We know this.
    0:32:53 I know this answer,
    0:32:56 not just based on my personal hunches or preferences.
    0:32:58 Of course, I love rapid topic switching.
    0:33:00 I think because I have an ADHD,
    0:33:02 sort of an inattentive brain,
    0:33:04 I think you do too.
    0:33:06 But we also actually have data on this.
    0:33:10 This is a huge data set that was collected from BetterUp,
    0:33:12 which it’s just amazing conversations.
    0:33:14 After their conversations,
    0:33:16 like hundreds of thousands of conversations,
    0:33:17 they ask people,
    0:33:20 did you cover the right amount of topics?
    0:33:21 And most people say, yeah,
    0:33:24 I think we covered about the right amount of topics.
    0:33:26 But of all the people who said no,
    0:33:28 we did not cover the right amount of topics,
    0:33:30 people are much more likely to say
    0:33:34 that they covered too few than too many.
    0:33:38 So the most common mistake is moving too slowly
    0:33:39 through topics.
    0:33:42 And we see that when we manipulate the speed
    0:33:44 with which people move from one thing to the next.
    0:33:46 So we’ve run experiments where we tell people,
    0:33:48 move faster.
    0:33:49 As soon as this thing starts to lag,
    0:33:51 we want you to move to something else.
    0:33:54 And those conversations are much more enjoyable.
    0:33:55 – Okay.
    0:33:56 So now let me ask you.
    0:34:00 So what about when people who are hesitant to ask
    0:34:03 sensitive questions start with the question
    0:34:06 like I did, may I ask you a sensitive question?
    0:34:08 Do you think that is a cop out?
    0:34:10 Do you think that is a waste of time?
    0:34:13 Or do you think that is a good social grace?
    0:34:15 – I think it’s a nice sign posting.
    0:34:16 It’s a little bit of a warning,
    0:34:19 like, hey, something’s coming, pay attention.
    0:34:23 It at least gives the veneer or the veil of politeness
    0:34:24 and caring, right?
    0:34:26 You’re also saying,
    0:34:27 I’m gonna ask you something sensitive.
    0:34:30 If you don’t want to answer it, I understand, right?
    0:34:32 That’s a nice disclaimer.
    0:34:33 The same is true when you switch topics.
    0:34:35 You can note, like, is it okay
    0:34:37 if I take a hard left turn here?
    0:34:39 Is it okay if we smoke bomb and move to something else?
    0:34:42 It’s almost like you’re asking permission of your partner,
    0:34:45 even though they’re sort of required to say yes,
    0:34:47 because they don’t know what’s coming next.
    0:34:49 But yes, I think it’s lovely.
    0:34:51 Or you can just do it, just ask.
    0:34:53 How much money do you make, guy?
    0:34:56 You know, like just go for it and see how people run.
    0:34:58 – My wife is my financial planner.
    0:34:59 I really don’t know.
    0:35:01 And everything is a direct deposit.
    0:35:02 I don’t check my balance.
    0:35:05 But can I tell you a really funny story?
    0:35:06 – Yes.
    0:35:07 – You can use this story.
    0:35:09 – I think I get to decide if it’s funny,
    0:35:11 but okay, go ahead.
    0:35:13 – I guarantee you when I tell you something is funny,
    0:35:14 it’s funny, all right?
    0:35:16 So when I was at Apple,
    0:35:18 I used to work with some of the executives
    0:35:22 in outside companies who are Macintosh users.
    0:35:26 And one very famous person was a woman named Sandra Kurtzig.
    0:35:29 She started a computer company called Ask Computing.
    0:35:32 It was manufacturing software.
    0:35:34 She was the first woman in Silicon Valley
    0:35:35 to take a company public.
    0:35:37 So she was very, very rich.
    0:35:40 And she had this Ferrari Testerosa,
    0:35:43 which I love Ferraris, not that I have her own one.
    0:35:45 So anyway, she reaches out to us.
    0:35:48 She says, I’m having problems with my Macintosh.
    0:35:51 So Guy goes over to her house
    0:35:53 to help her with her Macintosh, right?
    0:35:56 And she shakes the mouse and the screen wakes up.
    0:36:00 And the window in the front is Quicken.
    0:36:02 And I know how to use Quicken.
    0:36:04 I know exactly where the current balance
    0:36:05 of your checkbook is.
    0:36:07 And as soon as she wakes up Quicken,
    0:36:10 I look down and it’s like, holy shit,
    0:36:13 she has a quarter million dollars in her checking account.
    0:36:14 And ever since that day,
    0:36:16 it’s been one of my goals
    0:36:19 to have a quarter million dollars in your checking account.
    0:36:21 And I have achieved that goal, Allison.
    0:36:23 – Yes, Guy, yes.
    0:36:28 I love that your eyes darted so quickly to the balance.
    0:36:31 It’s like, it’s such a lovely measure
    0:36:32 of your inner curiosity.
    0:36:34 I love it so much.
    0:36:35 And you’ve done it.
    0:36:36 Is that it?
    0:36:37 You can drop the mic.
    0:36:40 You’ve achieved all the things you wanted in life.
    0:36:44 Quicken, you’re 250 in your checking account.
    0:36:48 – Tell that to your husband.
    0:36:51 So if you ever need help with your Macintosh,
    0:36:53 be sure you have quick books closed
    0:36:57 when you call me to your house or I will know.
    0:36:58 – I love it.
    0:36:58 I love it.
    0:37:02 I hope you’re not tracking my screen right now.
    0:37:03 We’re talking to that.
    0:37:06 I’m like, oh God, what does he have access to on my computer?
    0:37:07 What do you want?
    0:37:08 What is this?
    0:37:09 What does this even do?
    0:37:10 – It’s too late.
    0:37:12 I already posted it on threads.
    0:37:13 How much money you have?
    0:37:18 Clayton Christensen is up there laughing.
    0:37:21 And I was like, Guy, you’re really taking it to her.
    0:37:22 Go, Guy, go.
    0:37:24 – I’m just cheering you on.
    0:37:26 I can’t decide if he’s what would be cheering you on
    0:37:27 more or cheering me on more.
    0:37:29 I think he’s cheering us on together.
    0:37:32 – He is saying, I’m gonna write a new book
    0:37:34 called “A Conversationalist Dilemma.”
    0:37:38 – Exactly, when you love old people so much,
    0:37:39 what do you do?
    0:37:43 – So, okay.
    0:37:47 Another question, what happens or what’s the impact
    0:37:51 or the value if somebody gives you
    0:37:54 an inappropriate, mean, or destructive answer
    0:37:59 and the person then says, I was just being honest.
    0:38:02 Does that excuse you from being an asshole?
    0:38:04 – There’s a really great Taylor Swift lyric
    0:38:08 that says, “Casually cruel for the sake of being honest.”
    0:38:11 Ooh, that line will cut you like a knife.
    0:38:12 And I think it cuts you like a knife
    0:38:13 because it really captures something
    0:38:16 that we all feel torn about.
    0:38:20 This tension between benevolence or kindness
    0:38:23 or politeness and honesty
    0:38:27 because often the true contents of our minds are not kind.
    0:38:29 Our brains are built for a judgment
    0:38:32 and social evaluation and negative evaluation
    0:38:34 of other people and their work.
    0:38:36 And as you could tell from the book,
    0:38:38 I think a lot about what kindness means.
    0:38:41 Sometimes being honest in the short term,
    0:38:43 maybe giving feedback that someone needs to hear
    0:38:46 is kindest in the long term,
    0:38:50 but still you can deliver that honesty
    0:38:52 in a way that hopefully,
    0:38:53 and I think there’s some nice ingredients
    0:38:55 in the book to do this,
    0:38:59 in a way that isn’t even hurtful in the moment
    0:39:01 so that we can navigate this conundrum
    0:39:04 between benevolence and honesty
    0:39:07 even there with more kindness.
    0:39:10 – Up next on Remarkable People.
    0:39:14 – They are on a Zoom call but emailing at the same time.
    0:39:16 And so you get to see how overlapping
    0:39:19 and twisted and braided our conversations are these days.
    0:39:21 And what you realize is,
    0:39:25 it’s not just about choosing topics and asking questions.
    0:39:27 It’s doing that while you’re also engaged
    0:39:29 in like six other conversations at the same time
    0:39:32 that have their own unique topics and their own questions
    0:39:35 and sometimes a human mind on the other end
    0:39:37 synchronously and sometimes not.
    0:39:39 And this new conversational world
    0:39:41 that requires us to toggle like this
    0:39:43 can feel quite overwhelming.
    0:39:45 (gentle music)
    0:39:49 – Thank you to all our regular podcast listeners.
    0:39:52 It’s our pleasure and honor to make the show for you.
    0:39:54 If you find our show valuable,
    0:39:56 please do us a favor and subscribe,
    0:39:58 rate and review it.
    0:40:00 Even better, forward it to a friend,
    0:40:03 a big mahalo to you for doing this.
    0:40:07 – Welcome back to Remarkable People with Guy Kawasaki.
    0:40:12 What’s your advice when you have to converse
    0:40:16 with someone that you just completely disagree with?
    0:40:20 If I went to some dinner and I had to sit next to Elon Musk,
    0:40:22 like how do I approach a conversation
    0:40:25 with someone I completely disagree with?
    0:40:28 – You wanna think about what your goals are, right?
    0:40:30 So we have goals in the short term,
    0:40:35 like to survive the dinner and not have it be miserable,
    0:40:40 not get in such a heated argument that you cause a scene
    0:40:43 or probably like ruin a potential relationship
    0:40:45 with Elon Musk forever.
    0:40:47 Those are kind of inhumane.
    0:40:49 Maybe that’s your goal, that’s okay if it is.
    0:40:51 But then you have longer term goals.
    0:40:54 If you are thinking about how could I leverage
    0:40:57 a meaningful relationship with Elon Musk,
    0:40:59 if you’re playing the long game,
    0:41:00 your goal in the short term should be
    0:41:03 to have a great conversation with him.
    0:41:05 And the way that persuasion actually works
    0:41:09 between people is that you have to be in a good relationship.
    0:41:11 And if you have very differing views,
    0:41:16 they may slowly over time come to bend
    0:41:19 to the gentle pressure of your differing viewpoint,
    0:41:21 but you’re not gonna persuade him
    0:41:24 over a correspondence dinner at the White House
    0:41:26 in one conversation to change all of his views
    0:41:28 that you agree with.
    0:41:28 So I think-
    0:41:32 – The odds of me being invited to the White House are zero,
    0:41:34 so yeah.
    0:41:35 – You know what I mean?
    0:41:36 I think a lot of us have this instinct
    0:41:38 where we’re receiving, we hate the guy,
    0:41:40 we don’t agree with almost anything
    0:41:42 that someone else stands for,
    0:41:44 and therefore we have this need to be right
    0:41:47 and say something that really puts them in their place.
    0:41:50 But that’s not how to pursue.
    0:41:52 If you really have goals to persuade someone,
    0:41:54 you gotta play the long game.
    0:41:54 – Okay.
    0:41:57 I’ll tell him that I think Starlink is very well done.
    0:41:58 How’s that?
    0:41:59 – That’s a good start.
    0:42:01 compliments are a great start, guys.
    0:42:02 That sounds nice.
    0:42:04 Yes.
    0:42:05 – I hope it’s a short dinner.
    0:42:06 – Right?
    0:42:10 – Yeah, that’s one I’m gonna have to ask ChatGPT.
    0:42:14 What topics should Guy discuss with Elon at dinner
    0:42:15 in the White House?
    0:42:19 – To avoid getting into, immediately into a shouting match.
    0:42:20 Yeah.
    0:42:22 (laughing)
    0:42:24 – Next question, also tactical.
    0:42:28 How do you end or divert a conversation
    0:42:33 where someone is hitting on you or sexually approaching you?
    0:42:35 – I don’t wanna brag, but this was much of my life.
    0:42:38 So I have an experience with Elon.
    0:42:41 – Oh, that’s a 1% problem.
    0:42:42 – Yeah.
    0:42:44 You don’t have to end it, right?
    0:42:46 A bit of flattery is nice, no matter what,
    0:42:50 as long as it doesn’t feel threatening.
    0:42:53 And as long as it’s not disrespectful to someone else,
    0:42:56 to your partner, if you’re in a relationship or,
    0:42:59 or if it’s inappropriate in the context,
    0:43:01 if it’s someone in the workplace who’s coming
    0:43:05 and sort of coming onto you sexually in a way,
    0:43:08 so much of conversation is about reading your own needs,
    0:43:10 reading the other person’s needs,
    0:43:12 and then reading the context.
    0:43:14 So if you’re at a bar and somebody comes up to you
    0:43:16 and is hitting on you, that’s appropriate,
    0:43:18 but you should probably say, oh, actually I’m married
    0:43:21 or I’m in a relationship, I’m unavailable.
    0:43:23 If you’re in the workplace, things get trickier
    0:43:27 because then you have power dynamics and other goals
    0:43:30 and outcomes at play.
    0:43:31 That one gets harder.
    0:43:33 Most organizations have an anonymous line
    0:43:36 where you can contact a sort of title nine
    0:43:40 or mandatory reporter type of line to seek advice,
    0:43:41 especially if it’s someone who comes to you
    0:43:45 who has actual power over you in terms of your work.
    0:43:48 And hopefully you feel comfortable confiding
    0:43:53 in some sort of mentor to ask for advice about what to do.
    0:43:55 But in general, if somebody is,
    0:43:56 it makes an advance towards you
    0:43:58 and certainly outside of the workplace,
    0:44:00 I think you can take it as a compliment
    0:44:01 and just be honest with them.
    0:44:04 – Thank you so much, but I’m not available to be in that way.
    0:44:07 – I know, I hate when women treat me as an object, but okay.
    0:44:10 (laughing)
    0:44:13 – It’s all that surfing guy, you’re like a surfing stud.
    0:44:19 – You got into a whole discussion about NPR
    0:44:21 and how great their questions are,
    0:44:23 but I have a question for you.
    0:44:26 It seems that when I’m listening to NPR,
    0:44:30 they ask a lot of closed end questions.
    0:44:32 And just let me parody that.
    0:44:35 Like some of these interviews on NPR, they say,
    0:44:38 well, you saw your mother kill your father when you were eight
    0:44:41 and there was blood all over the kitchen floor.
    0:44:44 And then you had to testify against your father.
    0:44:47 Can you tell us more about how that affected you?
    0:44:49 Well, the answer is yes or no, right?
    0:44:53 But what happens when you ask a closed end question like that?
    0:44:56 – Yeah, I think especially for an outlet like NPR
    0:44:58 or for many people when they’re asking closed ended questions,
    0:45:01 it’s a sort of way, it’s a leading question
    0:45:04 and it’s a way of almost fact-checking.
    0:45:07 It’s literally saying, I know this about you already
    0:45:11 and I need you to confirm or deny that it’s true.
    0:45:13 Or some people use closed ended questions
    0:45:15 to help set context for a new topic
    0:45:16 to judge how much you know.
    0:45:18 So if I were to change and say,
    0:45:20 Guy, have you seen the TV show Silo?
    0:45:21 – Nope.
    0:45:25 – Right, so I just need that information quickly
    0:45:28 in order to guide how much, what I’m gonna say next.
    0:45:29 Am I gonna continue down that path?
    0:45:31 Or like, this isn’t gonna be interesting to you
    0:45:33 ’cause you haven’t seen the show, so I’m gonna pivot.
    0:45:36 So closed ended questions do have an important purpose,
    0:45:38 but they’re a completely different animal
    0:45:40 than the lovely open ended launch pads
    0:45:43 that we were talking about before.
    0:45:44 Open ended launch pads, by the way,
    0:45:48 good questions that inspire real information exchange
    0:45:49 and authenticity and connection.
    0:45:51 Often start with the word what.
    0:45:55 As opposed to I say, what is your favorite TV show right now?
    0:45:58 You’ll give me an answer and then we can go from there.
    0:46:01 So I will learn more than twice as much information
    0:46:03 by asking that question than saying,
    0:46:04 have you seen the show Silo?
    0:46:06 Where I get a yes or a no.
    0:46:08 As opposed to open ended questions
    0:46:09 that start with the word why.
    0:46:11 Why haven’t you watched Silo yet?
    0:46:13 Or why don’t you watch more TV?
    0:46:15 Those questions are open ended in theory,
    0:46:17 but they feel accusatory.
    0:46:21 So the relational part of that kind of question asking
    0:46:23 a little bit goes by the wayside.
    0:46:26 – Okay, just for the record, my favorite TV show
    0:46:29 was Yellowstone, and I’m the only person
    0:46:31 in Silicon Valley who liked Yellowstone.
    0:46:34 – Yeah, that is surprising.
    0:46:36 Oh my gosh, wow.
    0:46:39 – And my favorite character was Rip.
    0:46:42 – Oh, he’s a great character.
    0:46:43 I get it.
    0:46:44 You know what?
    0:46:45 There’s another topic for you
    0:46:47 to talk to Elon Musk about, okay?
    0:46:48 At the White House Dinner.
    0:46:51 You can talk about your share of Yellowstone
    0:46:52 and Rip Hamilton.
    0:46:54 Is it a Rip Hamilton?
    0:46:55 I don’t know, Rip.
    0:46:59 – Now I have a lot less hesitation
    0:47:03 to accept the White House Dinner in the next four years.
    0:47:05 – Yeah, you’ve already got two topics.
    0:47:09 We’ll find some more once you’re free and filming.
    0:47:11 – I want to know about the differences
    0:47:14 if you notice between men and women in conversations.
    0:47:17 And when I read this section about your friend
    0:47:20 calling you up and asking you about a vaginal mesh,
    0:47:24 I said, “I cannot imagine a man calling up another man.”
    0:47:27 So is there a difference between men and women?
    0:47:29 – Okay, agree to disagree.
    0:47:31 Because the number of conversations
    0:47:34 that I have overheard men talking about getting snipped
    0:47:37 after they’ve had their children,
    0:47:40 like more than 15 conversations have I eavesdropped
    0:47:42 on men talking. – Really?
    0:47:43 – When are you getting snipped?
    0:47:44 Are you snipped?
    0:47:45 Are you gonna do it?
    0:47:47 Are you gonna do it on master’s weekend
    0:47:49 so you can lay around and watch the go?
    0:47:50 (laughing)
    0:47:53 Truly, it’s like so many, so many has.
    0:47:55 So I think that’s the male version
    0:47:58 of the vaginal mesh conversation.
    0:47:59 As scientists, we have a lot to learn
    0:48:03 about gender similarities and gender differences
    0:48:05 in terms of communication.
    0:48:09 You see a lot of hypotheses and hunches
    0:48:11 thrown around in the public
    0:48:15 about gender differences in conversation
    0:48:18 that are not yet substantiated by scientific evidence.
    0:48:20 And in fact, the stuff that we do know
    0:48:23 is like actually men and women talk
    0:48:25 in a lot of the same ways.
    0:48:27 So there’s this great study by Matthias Mel.
    0:48:29 They’ve had people wear badges
    0:48:32 that just recorded ambient noise on people
    0:48:34 every two minutes or so in their lives.
    0:48:36 And so you get this full sample
    0:48:39 of somebody’s auditory life.
    0:48:41 And through that method, they found that men and women
    0:48:45 speak exactly the same amount of words on average per day,
    0:48:48 about 16,000 words per day on average.
    0:48:49 Now, when you start to look at,
    0:48:52 well, when are they talking and what are they saying?
    0:48:53 That’s where you can get into,
    0:48:55 well, are there content differences?
    0:48:58 Are women more likely to talk about vaginal mesh than men?
    0:48:59 Yeah, probably, but men are more likely
    0:49:02 to talk about their vasectomies.
    0:49:04 But science really hasn’t gotten to a point
    0:49:06 of how a fine grained figuring out,
    0:49:07 are there gender differences?
    0:49:08 Are there racial differences?
    0:49:09 Are there age differences?
    0:49:11 And what are they?
    0:49:13 What are the topics that different demographic groups
    0:49:14 are discussing?
    0:49:17 And what does that mean for how they relate to each other,
    0:49:20 for how we see each other as similar and different?
    0:49:22 That’s, I think, a very exciting area
    0:49:23 for scientists to pursue,
    0:49:26 is looking at the content of what people are saying.
    0:49:29 – I want you to know today that between sets,
    0:49:32 as we serve, I’m going to go asking all the men
    0:49:33 if they’ve been snipped.
    0:49:37 I can come across as a sensitive man, but–
    0:49:38 – But again, you’re probably beyond
    0:49:41 that phase of life where it’s irrelevant anymore.
    0:49:46 – Actually, this is another topic I can have
    0:49:48 with Elon. – Yes.
    0:49:51 – Don’t you think you should be snipped by now?
    0:49:53 – Yes, vasectomy, I’m adding it.
    0:49:56 I’m literally compiling your list for Elon.
    0:49:59 This is so fun, I didn’t anticipate this,
    0:50:00 but I’m really enjoying it.
    0:50:02 (laughing)
    0:50:04 – All right, so you brought up the topic
    0:50:06 of academic research.
    0:50:09 So as I was reading your book, I thought to myself,
    0:50:12 there’s a lot of dependency in this book
    0:50:15 about speed dating experiments.
    0:50:17 Are you at all worried that speed dating
    0:50:20 may not extrapolate to everybody in the real world?
    0:50:22 – Yes, of course.
    0:50:25 This science of conversation is very new.
    0:50:28 It is very important for people to realize this.
    0:50:30 People have been studying language,
    0:50:32 human language, the development of language.
    0:50:34 They’ve been studying public speaking,
    0:50:37 so one way where one person just says something
    0:50:41 and nobody responds for a very, very long time.
    0:50:43 We know a lot about language.
    0:50:46 We know very little about dialogue
    0:50:48 because only in the last 10 years
    0:50:50 have we come across a technology
    0:50:53 that allows us to record real conversations
    0:50:54 at very large scale,
    0:50:58 the tools to analyze those conversations at large scale.
    0:50:59 And so we’re at this phase right now
    0:51:03 where we’re learning things very, very quickly,
    0:51:05 but we are still quite limited by the data sets
    0:51:08 that we have access to that are of the gold standard
    0:51:11 of academic rigor that you would rely on.
    0:51:14 And so you kind of have to make these sort of logical leaps
    0:51:17 of like, well, if things are going well in speed dating,
    0:51:19 probably some of those things are generalizable
    0:51:20 to real dating.
    0:51:23 And then, well, what about dating is specific to dating
    0:51:28 or versus it’s actually translatable to all conversations?
    0:51:29 And so that’s where we are right now.
    0:51:32 It’s starting to figure out, well, what is context specific
    0:51:35 and what is generalizable across lots of areas
    0:51:37 where people talk to each other.
    0:51:40 – I’m not saying that most people who listen to my podcast
    0:51:43 are in the dating game, but while I have it,
    0:51:45 do you have some tips for dating?
    0:51:47 – I do, I do.
    0:51:50 Number one, it depends on if the person is a stranger to you.
    0:51:52 So if it’s a first date,
    0:51:55 it’s really important that you don’t have long pauses.
    0:51:57 So long pauses are the death knell
    0:52:01 or conversations between strangers is very awkward.
    0:52:04 So just keep asking questions, keep asking, follow up questions,
    0:52:07 bring, have your list of topics ready to go
    0:52:08 so you don’t have to panic
    0:52:11 when you know you need to change the topic.
    0:52:13 You can use any of the topics that we’ve used here today.
    0:52:15 Actually, on your date would be great.
    0:52:18 Really, I think on a date, whether it’s with a stranger
    0:52:21 or with someone that you’ve been dating for a while
    0:52:24 and with all people in all contexts,
    0:52:27 asking follow up questions is a superpower
    0:52:31 because you don’t need to have prepared at have time.
    0:52:33 You don’t need to know anything about them
    0:52:35 or about or have any knowledge of anything.
    0:52:38 You just need to listen to what your partner is saying
    0:52:40 and continue to ask questions about it.
    0:52:44 We see people fail to do this a lot in our data,
    0:52:47 both in speed dating, but in other contexts as well,
    0:52:49 negotiating, sales calls,
    0:52:52 just normal conversations between family members.
    0:52:55 When someone shares something important with you,
    0:52:57 if they are courageous enough
    0:52:59 to share something about their life with you,
    0:53:02 you should follow up on it and ask more about it
    0:53:04 as a signal that you care, that you heard them
    0:53:06 and that you wanna know more.
    0:53:10 – So now, another kind of dating is the job interview.
    0:53:12 So now you’re trying to get a job.
    0:53:16 How do you have a good conversation as the applicant,
    0:53:17 not as the recruiter?
    0:53:20 – Yeah, as an applicant, I think in our minds
    0:53:22 when we think of conversational job interviews,
    0:53:24 there’s this very clear script of like,
    0:53:26 well, this employer is gonna be asking me questions
    0:53:30 and I need to prove how great I am.
    0:53:32 I need to prove how interesting, smart, competent
    0:53:35 and well suited to this role I am.
    0:53:39 Anything you can do to flip that script is gonna go great
    0:53:42 because a real conversation that’s rewarding
    0:53:45 and actually makes you look competent is a give and take.
    0:53:48 So you can’t just sit there and wait for an interviewer
    0:53:50 to hit you with question after question.
    0:53:52 They’re gonna get bored with that.
    0:53:53 They’re not actually gonna be impressed
    0:53:56 with almost anything you say, probably.
    0:53:59 So again, ask questions back, ask follow up questions,
    0:54:02 try and learn about their perspective.
    0:54:05 Instead of trying to prove how great you are as an applicant,
    0:54:08 try and be interested in the work that they’re doing
    0:54:09 and learn as much as you can about it
    0:54:10 so that you can actually judge
    0:54:13 whether you are a good fit for the role.
    0:54:17 – You could ask, what do you think of your CEO
    0:54:20 going to the inauguration that’ll definitely get you an offer?
    0:54:24 – If you were giving him advice about the topics to raise
    0:54:27 with the people at his table,
    0:54:29 what would you advise him to say?
    0:54:31 And then you could raise him about it together.
    0:54:33 That would be so fun.
    0:54:34 And it would be such undeniable evidence
    0:54:37 that you’re interesting and creative.
    0:54:39 (laughing)
    0:54:43 – I’m glad I’m not applying for a job anytime soon.
    0:54:45 (laughing)
    0:54:50 So now, bring me up to speed, like your research,
    0:54:54 what are the implications of doing all this on Zoom
    0:54:56 instead of in real life?
    0:54:58 – Yeah, I think about this a lot.
    0:54:59 I had written a whole chapter in the book
    0:55:02 about digital communication and I took it out
    0:55:04 at the very end of the editing process.
    0:55:05 – Why?
    0:55:07 – I know, because I want the book to be timeless.
    0:55:10 By the time I had written it a year earlier,
    0:55:11 it was already outdated.
    0:55:13 I mean, while I was writing the book,
    0:55:17 LLNs, chat, GPT, AI, it all happened.
    0:55:20 And there’s going to be more of that in the future.
    0:55:24 Whatever you say now is going to change dramatically.
    0:55:26 Most of what you could say now is going to change
    0:55:29 just rapidly and in exciting ways.
    0:55:31 But now I get to actually talk about it.
    0:55:32 So let me tell you what was in that chapter
    0:55:34 that I find so important.
    0:55:36 I think there’s a lot of rhetoric in our culture
    0:55:39 about getting kids off their phones
    0:55:41 and letting them have a good childhood.
    0:55:44 I think what we need to talk about a little bit more
    0:55:45 is like, well, we’re all part of this world.
    0:55:47 It’s not just children.
    0:55:51 We are all toggling constantly between our phone
    0:55:53 and the computer and then turning and talking
    0:55:55 to someone in real life and then someone calls
    0:55:57 and then you’re texting at the same time.
    0:56:00 So we’re all doing this conversational toggling.
    0:56:04 And I think we don’t have any idea what that’s doing
    0:56:07 to our brains, what it’s doing to our relationships
    0:56:11 and certainly how it’s affecting our conversational skills.
    0:56:14 So I’m interested to see what happens.
    0:56:17 In my class, I ask my students to do an audit
    0:56:19 of their conversational lives
    0:56:21 where I ask them to take 20 minutes in your life.
    0:56:24 And I want you to write down every incoming
    0:56:27 and outgoing message, whether it’s an email, a text,
    0:56:30 a phone call, a real life conversation,
    0:56:32 some reels and memes on TikTok.
    0:56:34 Well, I should say Instagram now.
    0:56:35 And so they write it all out
    0:56:38 and you get this really wild sample.
    0:56:41 It’s a transcript, but it’s all over the map, right?
    0:56:43 They’re sending texts while they’re talking
    0:56:45 to their mom on speakerphone.
    0:56:49 They are on a Zoom call but emailing at the same time.
    0:56:51 And so you get to see how overlapping
    0:56:54 and twisted and braided our conversations are these days.
    0:56:57 And what you realize is it’s not just
    0:57:00 about choosing topics and asking questions.
    0:57:02 It’s doing that while you’re also engaged
    0:57:04 in like six other conversations at the same time
    0:57:07 that have their own unique topics and their own questions.
    0:57:10 And sometimes a human mind on the other end
    0:57:12 synchronously and sometimes not.
    0:57:14 And this new conversational world
    0:57:16 that requires us to toggle like this
    0:57:18 can feel quite overwhelming.
    0:57:20 When they look back on their audit,
    0:57:23 the students often say that only the ones
    0:57:24 where they were synchronous,
    0:57:28 whether it’s in person or on Zoom, felt real.
    0:57:30 That felt rewarding.
    0:57:33 Felt like they had some sense of human connection.
    0:57:35 And I think that’s not trivial.
    0:57:37 – My phone is off.
    0:57:38 – You’re so kind.
    0:57:40 I just got six text messages.
    0:57:41 Sorry, guy.
    0:57:45 – Okay, so two last questions
    0:57:48 because I don’t wanna take up too much of your time
    0:57:48 on launch day.
    0:57:53 So I wanna know who is in the Alison Woodbrooks
    0:57:57 conversation hall of fame.
    0:58:00 – Oh, what a great question.
    0:58:01 My mom.
    0:58:02 My mom is-
    0:58:03 – Your mom?
    0:58:05 – Yeah, she’s amazing.
    0:58:07 I talk to her every day.
    0:58:09 I’m gonna cry just thinking about it.
    0:58:12 She’s such a good listener.
    0:58:16 She’s so funny and she cares so much about me
    0:58:18 and about all the people that she knows
    0:58:20 that I think she was an incredible role model
    0:58:22 for me my whole life.
    0:58:25 And I’ve never said that out loud before, guy.
    0:58:26 Thank you for asking.
    0:58:27 – Wow.
    0:58:29 – I could give answers to letters like celebrities
    0:58:32 that I think are amazing.
    0:58:33 Most of them are very good listeners
    0:58:35 and are good at levity.
    0:58:39 So people like Stephen Colbert, Conan O’Brien,
    0:58:41 Nikki Glaser, in the book you,
    0:58:44 Terry Gross is a really amazing question asker.
    0:58:47 Really anyone who is in the public sphere
    0:58:50 and become successful for having conversations,
    0:58:52 this is what their core skill set is, right?
    0:58:54 Like that’s why they’ve been successful
    0:58:56 is that they are good at preparing topics.
    0:58:58 They are good at asking questions.
    0:58:59 Joe Rogan, right?
    0:59:01 Like whether you agree or disagree with him,
    0:59:03 he’s a terrific conversationalist.
    0:59:04 He’s great at asking questions.
    0:59:06 He’s good at getting people to open up.
    0:59:09 Guy Kawasaki, great at bringing levity
    0:59:12 and then moving topics quickly and asking follow-up.
    0:59:14 – You mentioned Joe Rogan and Guy Kawasaki
    0:59:15 in the same sentence.
    0:59:17 – I’m sorry, I know.
    0:59:18 – I’m arrived.
    0:59:19 – I know.
    0:59:21 – We can end the recording right here.
    0:59:22 (laughing)
    0:59:26 – You see, this is what’s so beautiful about the world.
    0:59:31 You see examples of conversational greatness all the time.
    0:59:35 You also see examples of fumbles and stumbles all the time.
    0:59:38 And it’s because we’re all human beings.
    0:59:40 We’re all just trying to do our best.
    0:59:44 Sometimes we strike gold and we find amazing moments
    0:59:47 of connection and information exchange and closeness.
    0:59:50 And sometimes we mess it up and that’s okay.
    0:59:51 – Speaking of messing this up,
    0:59:55 right, as I was reading your book and as we’re having
    1:00:00 this discussion, when we adopted our fourth child,
    1:00:03 so we have two adopted children.
    1:00:07 So we adopted him about 17, 18 years ago.
    1:00:13 I was at a dinner with my wife and a friend and his wife.
    1:00:16 And he said, you know, we told him
    1:00:18 we’re adopting another child, right?
    1:00:20 And he said something like,
    1:00:22 aren’t you concerned about adoption?
    1:00:24 Because adoption, typically these kids,
    1:00:28 they didn’t have good prenatal nutrition
    1:00:31 or they come from broken homes or drugs in the house.
    1:00:35 Adopted kids have a lot of problems.
    1:00:37 And I have never forgiven him for that
    1:00:42 because he, this is after we told him we have one kid,
    1:00:45 we’re adopting another kid.
    1:00:47 Not that we’re thinking about adoption.
    1:00:51 We have adopted kids and we’re going to adopt this.
    1:00:54 And I thought that was such an insensitive thing to do.
    1:00:57 I have never forgiven him.
    1:01:00 And he probably has no idea why I’ve been pissed off
    1:01:02 for about 20 years with him all this.
    1:01:04 – Would you ever think about telling him?
    1:01:06 – Would you ever think about telling him?
    1:01:08 – After reading your book and this discussion,
    1:01:12 maybe I will because he probably, from his side,
    1:01:13 maybe he was just thinking,
    1:01:16 I want my friend to make a really wise decision
    1:01:17 about adoption.
    1:01:21 I don’t want him to go in with blinders on.
    1:01:22 – Or maybe it was out of his own fear.
    1:01:24 Maybe he had been thinking about adoption
    1:01:28 and that’s what he’s afraid of for himself or for you or,
    1:01:31 yeah, we make mistakes like that.
    1:01:32 That’s an insensitive thing to say.
    1:01:34 It sounds very self-centered, right?
    1:01:39 It sort of reeks of being focused on what you know
    1:01:40 and what you’re afraid of
    1:01:42 rather than asking a question of,
    1:01:45 do you have any fears about this, right?
    1:01:47 Like that would have been much more adaptive thing
    1:01:50 to do in that moment for them.
    1:01:52 – I would tell you what country he’s from,
    1:01:55 but it would immediately help some people identify
    1:01:57 who I’m talking about, some of them.
    1:01:58 (laughing)
    1:02:00 – I could make guesses, but I don’t want to make,
    1:02:03 I don’t want to, I don’t want him stereotyped.
    1:02:07 – All right, so my last question for you,
    1:02:12 Alison Wood, the queen of conversation is, ironically,
    1:02:15 how do you be a better listener?
    1:02:18 As opposed to conversationalist.
    1:02:20 – Yeah, it’s so funny, the title of the book is talk,
    1:02:22 but I think the secret sauce,
    1:02:25 the secret message of the whole thing is about listening.
    1:02:28 You can’t talk well without listening.
    1:02:31 And it turns out that listening is really hard,
    1:02:33 especially for people who have attentional issues,
    1:02:36 but really for everybody, there’s great research.
    1:02:40 The resting state of the human mind is mind wandering.
    1:02:44 It is not built to pay attention to another person
    1:02:47 continuously while you’re engaging with them.
    1:02:50 So it takes effort to get out of our natural mind wandering
    1:02:52 state and actually listen to each other.
    1:02:54 That is effortful.
    1:02:55 It is worth putting in that effort.
    1:02:59 You need to do it in order to have good conversation.
    1:03:01 And when you do it, when you look at somebody else,
    1:03:02 you listen to what they’re saying,
    1:03:04 you process what they’re saying,
    1:03:07 you think hard about it, you try and really engage with it,
    1:03:09 you should get credit for it
    1:03:12 by showing them that you’ve heard them.
    1:03:15 And so many, many years of research on active listening
    1:03:19 have told us to use nonverbals like nodding and smiling
    1:03:20 to show someone that we’ve heard them.
    1:03:23 That’s good, that’s a great start, that matters.
    1:03:26 But really the advanced course on listening
    1:03:29 is using your words to show someone that you’ve heard them.
    1:03:33 I can only call back to this story about adoption
    1:03:35 for your kids because I was listening to you
    1:03:37 and I care about it and I’ve been thinking about it.
    1:03:40 I can only call back to your surfing earlier
    1:03:42 in the conversation because I cared about that
    1:03:44 and I latched onto it and I heard it.
    1:03:46 I can only ask a follow-up question
    1:03:49 if I heard what you said and I care to know more.
    1:03:51 So these verbal signals like follow-up questions,
    1:03:53 callbacks, paraphrasing,
    1:03:55 just repeating what someone has said,
    1:03:57 hey, I hear you saying that you were upset by this
    1:04:00 and maybe you’re thinking about contacting this guy again
    1:04:02 to reach out, do you think you’ll actually do that?
    1:04:06 So repeating what someone has said can be really,
    1:04:10 really valuable and makes people feel heard and seen
    1:04:13 and loved and it’s really where so much
    1:04:15 of the conversational magic lies.
    1:04:20 – This has been speaking of magic, a magical conversation.
    1:04:20 – I agree.
    1:04:24 – I can look forward to having dinner with Elon Musk.
    1:04:27 I never would have predicted that.
    1:04:28 – Now you can get excited about it.
    1:04:31 We’ve got four topics brainstormed.
    1:04:33 We’re gonna get at least 10 more together
    1:04:34 and then we’re gonna make it happen
    1:04:36 ’cause I wanna record this conversation at CO4.
    1:04:39 – You’ve changed my life, you’ve changed my life.
    1:04:42 I want you to get the transcript of this
    1:04:45 and do an analysis and I want you to figure out
    1:04:47 this is like speed podcasting.
    1:04:50 – If I wasn’t doing so many podcasts for the book,
    1:04:53 I would honestly, so many of my students have done that.
    1:04:55 Actually, this year, two of my students
    1:04:56 did this creative thing.
    1:05:00 They took a real podcast recording of me and somebody
    1:05:04 and then they created an LLM podcast of fake Allison
    1:05:07 and fake other person and then they did a conversation,
    1:05:10 side-by-side conversation analysis of both
    1:05:14 to see what are the pros of human-to-human conversation
    1:05:18 compared to LLM conversation
    1:05:21 and your hypothesis guy was definitely confirmed,
    1:05:25 which is humans are better at asking questions.
    1:05:27 They’re better at laughing with each other.
    1:05:29 They’re better at finding sparkly moments
    1:05:31 of levity and connection.
    1:05:34 So thank you, it’s such a gift to do this together.
    1:05:38 – You know what, I noticed, speaking of questions
    1:05:41 from left field, I noticed you had a podcast
    1:05:46 and I watched it and on your side, on your shelf,
    1:05:49 you had his logo.
    1:05:50 Do you remember that?
    1:05:51 – I don’t.
    1:05:55 Oh, maybe Matt Abraham says, “Think fast, talk smart.”
    1:05:59 – No, it wasn’t Matt Abraham, it was somebody else
    1:06:01 and I thought, I wonder if he superimposed that
    1:06:03 on the video or that.
    1:06:07 – Alison is so clever that when she is interviewed
    1:06:12 by a podcaster, she puts the podcasters book on her shelf
    1:06:16 and I said, “That is why she’s at Harvard Business School.”
    1:06:19 – I’m that ahead of the curve.
    1:06:22 I’m sure he superimposed it, but I will aspire
    1:06:25 to be the kind of person that would do that for sure.
    1:06:29 – And I swear to God, I thought about it,
    1:06:30 but I didn’t do it.
    1:06:33 I was gonna put talk on my shelf.
    1:06:34 – Yeah, where’s your-
    1:06:35 – But I forgot.
    1:06:37 – Yeah, get it on your shelf, guy.
    1:06:40 Tell everybody about it.
    1:06:43 Our world needs it so badly right now and always.
    1:06:45 We need better communicators.
    1:06:50 – Speaking of LLM, so there’s such a thing as Kawasaki GPT
    1:06:52 and we put the transcripts of every one
    1:06:55 of my interviews in there.
    1:06:58 So pretty soon, people can go to Kawasaki GPT
    1:07:01 and ask Alison questions based on this interview.
    1:07:04 Well, you let me know if you do an analysis
    1:07:06 of this conversation, I would love the output.
    1:07:09 I would love to see what you uncover about our connection.
    1:07:13 – No, but I don’t have the academic wherewithal to do this.
    1:07:15 You should make this a project to like-
    1:07:16 – I should.
    1:07:20 – Are you tired of listening to people talk on speed dates?
    1:07:21 You should listen to-
    1:07:22 – Never.
    1:07:25 – Guy and I do a podcast to see what great conversation
    1:07:28 is like, how many questions did they ask?
    1:07:30 How many times did they switch topics?
    1:07:32 How many times did they come back?
    1:07:36 How many sensitive questions about salaries did Guy ask?
    1:07:38 – Well, it is, I mean, doing a book tour like this
    1:07:41 with lots of podcasts, it is a very interesting,
    1:07:44 natural sort of case study of conversation
    1:07:45 because I’m always there.
    1:07:46 I’m always constant.
    1:07:48 It’s just that the host is changing.
    1:07:51 And in theory, it’s the related topics.
    1:07:52 We’re always talking about the book,
    1:07:56 but the variability is stackering.
    1:07:58 What you end up talking about,
    1:08:01 my favorite is when they’re more conversational like this,
    1:08:02 like where you, you know,
    1:08:03 you’re talking about the book,
    1:08:05 but you’re talking about other stuff too.
    1:08:07 I think everybody wants that.
    1:08:09 – So in version two of your book,
    1:08:11 you can mention this conversation,
    1:08:14 but what’s even more important to me in version two
    1:08:18 of this book is that you change asking to ask.
    1:08:18 – I’ll do it.
    1:08:19 I’ll do it.
    1:08:21 I’m gonna add, I’m gonna make a footnote
    1:08:23 in the next edition.
    1:08:26 Addition two, Guy Kawasaki says this should be asks.
    1:08:31 I’m gonna change the entire meaning of the word asks
    1:08:32 for him.
    1:08:35 – Allison, I’m sure you have other important things to do.
    1:08:37 So thank you so much.
    1:08:40 This has been just a remarkable conversation.
    1:08:42 – It’s amazing to connect, Guy.
    1:08:43 – I’m Guy Kawasaki.
    1:08:45 This has been remarkable people.
    1:08:49 And man, what a remarkable conversation we had today.
    1:08:52 This is gonna go down in the annals of podcast history.
    1:08:54 My thanks to Matt for bringing us together
    1:08:58 and also for being in the same group of people
    1:09:01 with Katie Milgman and Angela Duckworth and Bob Cialdini.
    1:09:04 These are all the people who lead behavioral research.
    1:09:08 And thanks to Madison Nizmer, who is our producer.
    1:09:09 Tessa Nizmer, our researcher.
    1:09:12 Jeff C. and Shannon Hernandez.
    1:09:14 We got a lot of people who make remarkable people,
    1:09:15 remarkable.
    1:09:18 So until next time, thank you very much.
    1:09:21 And Mahalo and Aloha.
    1:09:26 This is Remarkable People.

    Join Guy Kawasaki for a fascinating conversation with Alison Wood Brooks, Harvard Business School professor and author of Talk. As the creator of the innovative “How to Talk Gooder” course, Brooks reveals the science behind great conversations, sharing insights on everything from the power of asking sensitive questions to navigating difficult discussions. Learn her TALK framework and discover why small talk isn’t a waste of time after all.

    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

  • The Future of Social Security and Medicare, When Is Graduate School a Good Idea? and How to Raise Resilient Kids

    AI transcript
    0:00:02 Support for Prop G comes from better help.
    0:00:04 Looking out for red flags in a relationship is important,
    0:00:06 but what if we spent a little more time
    0:00:09 looking for green flags instead?
    0:00:10 Whether you’re dating, married,
    0:00:12 or just looking to improve your relationship with yourself,
    0:00:15 therapy can help you create healthy new connections,
    0:00:19 and better help online therapy can be a great way to start.
    0:00:20 Better Help is fully online,
    0:00:22 making therapy affordable and convenient,
    0:00:24 serving over five million people worldwide.
    0:00:27 Discover your relationship green flags with Better Help.
    0:00:30 You can visit betterhelp.com/provg today
    0:00:32 to get 10% off your first month.
    0:00:36 That’s betterhelp, H-E-L-P.com/provg.
    0:00:39 – This is a Reese’s Peanut Butter Cub Sound Experiment.
    0:00:42 We’re looking to find the perfect way to hear Reese’s,
    0:00:44 so you’ll buy more of them.
    0:00:45 Here we go.
    0:00:46 Reese’s.
    0:00:47 Reese’s.
    0:00:49 – Reese’s.
    0:00:51 – Reese’s.
    0:00:52 – Reese’s.
    0:00:54 – Get out of here, you little stinker.
    0:00:55 – Reese’s.
    0:00:56 – Reese’s.
    0:01:01 – Reese’s.
    0:01:03 – Peanut Butter Cups.
    0:01:06 – That breathy one sounded very creepy, am I right?
    0:01:09 – This isn’t your grandpa’s finance podcast.
    0:01:11 It’s Vivian2, your rich BFF,
    0:01:13 and host of the Net Worth and Chill podcast.
    0:01:15 This is money talk that’s actually fun,
    0:01:18 actually relatable, and will actually make you money.
    0:01:20 I’m breaking down investments, side hustles,
    0:01:22 and wealth strategies, no boring spreadsheets,
    0:01:24 just real talk that’ll have you
    0:01:25 leveling up your financial game.
    0:01:27 With amazing guests like Glenda Baker.
    0:01:29 – There’s never been any house that I’ve sold
    0:01:30 in the last 32 years.
    0:01:32 That’s not worth more today
    0:01:33 than it was the day that I sold it.
    0:01:34 – This is a money podcast
    0:01:36 that you’ll actually want to listen to.
    0:01:39 Follow Net Worth and Chill wherever you listen to podcasts.
    0:01:41 Your bank account will thank you later.
    0:01:44 – Welcome to Office Hours with ProveG.
    0:01:45 This is the part of the show
    0:01:47 where we answer questions about business,
    0:01:48 spectac, entrepreneurship,
    0:01:49 and whatever else is on your mind.
    0:01:51 If you’d like to submit a question,
    0:01:52 please email a voice recording
    0:01:54 to officehours@provegmedia.com.
    0:01:57 Again, that’s Office Hours@provegmedia.com.
    0:01:58 So with that, first question.
    0:02:03 – Hello, ProveG.
    0:02:06 This is Ross from Windermere, Florida,
    0:02:09 a loyal fan of your various podcasts.
    0:02:12 In fact, I told my younger brother about it,
    0:02:15 and he will not miss a single episode.
    0:02:19 Anyway, I am 67, about to turn 68,
    0:02:21 and therefore keenly interested
    0:02:26 in the continued availability of social security and Medicare.
    0:02:28 During the campaign,
    0:02:30 Donald Trump said he wouldn’t fuck with either of those,
    0:02:32 but will he?
    0:02:35 What’s your best guess on whether social security
    0:02:39 and Medicare are up for some kind of a modification?
    0:02:42 And do you think that Congress has the will
    0:02:44 to go along with it?
    0:02:47 Anyway, thanks again for all that you do.
    0:02:49 – I don’t think you have anything to worry about, boss.
    0:02:52 Social security is kind of theoretically,
    0:02:53 or not theoretically,
    0:02:56 is largely considered a very successful social program
    0:02:58 before it’s invention about one in five.
    0:02:59 Seniors lived in poverty.
    0:03:01 Now it’s, I think, one in 12.
    0:03:02 It has been very successful.
    0:03:04 People depend upon it.
    0:03:07 It provides people with a lot of comfort.
    0:03:11 And in addition, it’s kind of America’s new alley
    0:03:14 of transferring wealth from the young to the poor.
    0:03:15 So you can kind of see where I’m going with this.
    0:03:17 I’ll come back to that.
    0:03:20 But social security is the government’s biggest budget item
    0:03:22 and Medicare is the second largest.
    0:03:24 As a matter of fact, about 40% of our federal budget
    0:03:27 goes to programs for people over the age of 65.
    0:03:30 It used to be 10%, then it went to 25 to 40.
    0:03:31 Within probably 10 years,
    0:03:33 over half of the majority of our federal budget
    0:03:37 is gonna go to programs for people over the age of 65.
    0:03:39 In 2024, social security accounted
    0:03:41 for over 1.4 trillion of federal spending
    0:03:45 and the program covered over 71 million workers.
    0:03:47 Last year, the U.S. spent over 800 billion on Medicare.
    0:03:51 Over 25% of American adults are enrolled in the program.
    0:03:53 Now, the future, are the future these benefits uncertain?
    0:03:55 Recent reports project that the social security
    0:03:57 and Medicare funds would be depleted by 2033
    0:04:00 and 2036 respectively.
    0:04:01 Before his first term, Trump promised
    0:04:03 he would preserve both Medicare and social security.
    0:04:05 However, things changed.
    0:04:07 Each of his yearly budget proposals
    0:04:09 included cuts to both social security and Medicare,
    0:04:10 although they were never enacted.
    0:04:13 Still, Trump has maintained that he will not make cuts
    0:04:16 to the program nor will he change the retirement age.
    0:04:20 I don’t see any path other than either deficits,
    0:04:22 which are taxes on the young
    0:04:26 or some sort of means testing for social security.
    0:04:31 And by the way, I do believe there is no reason
    0:04:33 that I should have social security.
    0:04:34 And people say, “Well, you pay it into it.”
    0:04:36 Well, they call it social security tax.
    0:04:37 There’s a lot of taxes I pay
    0:04:39 where I don’t register the benefits.
    0:04:41 It’s not called social security pension fund.
    0:04:44 Now to be clear, it’s not adding to the deficit, if you will,
    0:04:48 because in fact, it’s an offline budget item.
    0:04:49 But at the same time,
    0:04:51 it still is the biggest item in our budget.
    0:04:55 It used to be 12 workers for every one retired person
    0:04:57 now because people are living longer.
    0:05:01 It’s now three to one and it is a real tax on the young.
    0:05:06 At a minimum, we should lift the cap.
    0:05:08 I believe it’s either six or 8%,
    0:05:11 but basically the cap is at 160 grand.
    0:05:15 So I have analysts working here at Prop G who make 160 grand.
    0:05:20 So they make, or they pay $9,000 in social security tax.
    0:05:24 I make 16 million and I pay $9,000.
    0:05:27 Why on earth are the rich not paying their share
    0:05:30 to support our seniors?
    0:05:32 So if you’re going to continue to transfer this much money
    0:05:35 to seniors and you think it’s a good idea, fine,
    0:05:38 but why on earth would it be a regressive tax on the young?
    0:05:39 Why?
    0:05:40 Because my generation has decided
    0:05:42 that the new Gestalt is quite frankly,
    0:05:45 let me think, to fuck young people.
    0:05:47 I also think we should means test it.
    0:05:49 I think if you have over a million dollars in assets
    0:05:50 or a hundred thousand in passive income,
    0:05:52 you don’t need social security
    0:05:53 or you shouldn’t get it and all this bullshit.
    0:05:54 If I paid into it,
    0:05:57 actually the majority of people who collect social security
    0:06:00 for a number of years take out two to three times
    0:06:00 what they put into it.
    0:06:02 So this notion that I’m entitled to,
    0:06:04 no you’re not, it’s a tax.
    0:06:06 People who need it are entitled to it.
    0:06:07 So I think you got to means test it.
    0:06:11 Also when we invented or implemented social security,
    0:06:13 the majority of people weren’t living to 65.
    0:06:14 Guess what?
    0:06:16 Now the majority, the vast majority of people
    0:06:20 are living past 65 and or working past the age of 65.
    0:06:24 So we need to means test it and we need to lift the age.
    0:06:26 What should social security be?
    0:06:28 It should be a safety net for seniors
    0:06:31 who are no longer working of a certain age
    0:06:32 where it doesn’t make sense for them to work
    0:06:34 who need the money.
    0:06:36 That would be fiscal sanity.
    0:06:37 Thanks so much for the question.
    0:06:38 Question number two.
    0:06:42 – Hey Scott, this is Chase calling from Hawaii.
    0:06:46 I started listening to you after your podcast with Geo Vaughn.
    0:06:48 Really appreciate what you do.
    0:06:50 I’m 24 years old.
    0:06:53 I work for the Division of Forestry and Wildlife.
    0:06:55 I love it, but the pay is horrendous.
    0:06:58 I make about $40,000 a year.
    0:07:00 For a while I was complacent, told myself,
    0:07:02 “I don’t need to make money, I like what I do.”
    0:07:06 But I realized that I absolutely do need to make money.
    0:07:07 I want to start a family.
    0:07:09 I want to buy a house, buy nice things.
    0:07:12 I find myself extremely motivated
    0:07:16 to put my all into something, go all in.
    0:07:18 But at the same time, I’m completely overwhelmed
    0:07:22 by the number of ways there are to make money nowadays.
    0:07:24 I feel stuck.
    0:07:28 I have my degree in psychology, not going to use it.
    0:07:29 If I could go back,
    0:07:32 I definitely would have gotten my degree in something else.
    0:07:34 What would you do if you were in my shoes?
    0:07:36 And how do you navigate finding a balance
    0:07:40 between making money and doing something really cool?
    0:07:41 Lex?
    0:07:43 – Chase, first off, I really appreciate the question.
    0:07:45 And the first thing I want you to do,
    0:07:48 ’cause I hear some sadness or disappointment
    0:07:49 or anger yourself and your voice,
    0:07:51 is I want you to forgive yourself.
    0:07:53 You’re 24, boss.
    0:07:54 You’re doing something important.
    0:07:56 You’re working for the Division of Forestry and Wildlife.
    0:07:59 That’s like a million species and trees
    0:08:01 would like to say thank you, but they can’t.
    0:08:04 And when my kids are roaming around the redwoods
    0:08:06 and get to see a bear and an aspen.
    0:08:09 That’s not a douchey, a bear and an aspen.
    0:08:10 You get my point.
    0:08:12 You’re doing something meaningful
    0:08:14 and you’re getting good experience in your workshopping.
    0:08:16 That’s what you’re supposed to do in your 20s.
    0:08:19 And you’re still so ridiculously young.
    0:08:20 You could have been doing nothing
    0:08:21 and you’d still be fine
    0:08:23 because you can start your life at 40,
    0:08:27 much less you’re an infant professionally at 24.
    0:08:28 So this is what you’re gonna do.
    0:08:29 You’re gonna forgive yourself and realize
    0:08:31 you did something you have.
    0:08:33 You’ve got a couple of years under your belt.
    0:08:35 You’ve done something important now.
    0:08:37 I don’t know enough about you,
    0:08:40 but I have a gut for what you may wanna explore.
    0:08:41 The first thing is no brainer.
    0:08:43 I need you to put together a kitchen cabinet
    0:08:45 of some people you trust that are smart,
    0:08:48 that know you, that you can call and get advice from
    0:08:50 and say I’m thinking about this, I’m thinking about this,
    0:08:53 or find people who may be left the service
    0:08:55 and are doing other things.
    0:08:57 Start to talk to people and find a group of people
    0:08:58 that you can call and get advice.
    0:09:01 It is very hard to read the label
    0:09:02 from inside of the bottle.
    0:09:04 Two, and this is where my gut kicks in.
    0:09:06 You sound to me like someone
    0:09:09 who is a perfect candidate for graduate school.
    0:09:11 And I would need to ask some more questions.
    0:09:12 Do you like school?
    0:09:14 Because here’s the thing about graduate school.
    0:09:16 It’s for two people.
    0:09:17 It’s for people who are very focused
    0:09:19 and need a PhD in microbiology
    0:09:23 so they can go do work on coming up with the cure
    0:09:24 for cancer, right?
    0:09:26 But the vast majority of people at least go back
    0:09:29 to get an MBA or what I call the elite and the aimless.
    0:09:31 I was one of those people.
    0:09:32 I had decent certification.
    0:09:33 I was smart, I was hardworking,
    0:09:35 but I had no idea what I wanted to do.
    0:09:36 I’d spent two years of Morgan Stanley and fixed income.
    0:09:38 And all I knew was I didn’t want to do fixed income
    0:09:40 at Morgan Stanley anymore.
    0:09:41 But I didn’t know what I wanted to do.
    0:09:42 And the majority, I would say two thirds
    0:09:44 of the people who go to business school
    0:09:45 don’t know what they want to do.
    0:09:46 Their first essay, they lie.
    0:09:48 They pretend they’re really focused.
    0:09:49 They don’t know what they want to do.
    0:09:51 That’s why they’re going back to graduate school.
    0:09:52 That’s where you are.
    0:09:54 You’re elite, right?
    0:09:55 You obviously went to a school.
    0:09:56 You got a psychology degree.
    0:10:00 You got a good job servicing our nation
    0:10:01 and public service.
    0:10:02 You’re elite.
    0:10:03 You’re a little bit aimless right now,
    0:10:05 which spells to me graduate school.
    0:10:06 So this is what I want you to do.
    0:10:07 I’m going to start talking to a bunch of people,
    0:10:09 including people who’ve left the service,
    0:10:11 find out what they’re doing.
    0:10:12 Once you put together a kitchen cabinet of people
    0:10:14 to bounce ideas off of.
    0:10:16 And I want you to think about graduate school
    0:10:18 and see if it’s a fit for you.
    0:10:20 Anyways, I really appreciate your service
    0:10:21 and Chase from Hawaii.
    0:10:23 You’re doing, you’re exactly where you should be.
    0:10:24 You’re ahead of the game.
    0:10:27 You had a good job serving the public,
    0:10:29 serving the public good.
    0:10:30 You’re 24, you live in Hawaii.
    0:10:33 It is good to be Chase.
    0:10:36 We have one quick break before our final question.
    0:10:37 Stay with us.
    0:10:43 Support for ProfG comes from LinkedIn.
    0:10:44 It’s 2025.
    0:10:46 And if your B2B marketing strategy for the new year
    0:10:49 doesn’t include improve your ad targeting,
    0:10:51 then your ads can just get lost in the noise.
    0:10:53 LinkedIn ads can help by ensuring your message
    0:10:54 makes it to the right audience.
    0:10:55 With LinkedIn ads,
    0:10:57 you can precisely reach the professionals
    0:10:59 who are more likely to find your ads relevant.
    0:11:00 With LinkedIn’s targeting capabilities,
    0:11:02 you can reach them by job title, industry company,
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    0:11:06 Let you build the right relationship drive results
    0:11:09 and reach your customers in a respectful environment.
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    0:11:13 with decision makers.
    0:11:16 That’s a billion members, 130 million decision makers
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    0:11:21 with targeting and measurement tools
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    0:11:25 79% of B2B content marketers say LinkedIn produces
    0:11:27 the best results for paid media.
    0:11:29 Start converting your B2B audience
    0:11:31 into high quality leads today.
    0:11:33 We’ll even give you $100 credit on your next campaign.
    0:11:36 Go to linkedin.com/scott to claim your credit.
    0:11:40 That’s linkedin.com/scott, terms and conditions apply.
    0:11:43 LinkedIn, the place to be to be.
    0:11:49 Support for PropG comes from masterclass.
    0:11:51 No matter how accomplished you are in your career
    0:11:52 or how many degrees you have,
    0:11:54 there are always new things to discover.
    0:11:56 And if you’re a lifelong learner,
    0:11:58 I may have something for you.
    0:12:01 Masterclass, masterclass is the online learning platform
    0:12:03 where you can get valuable insights
    0:12:05 for more than 200 of the world’s greatest minds.
    0:12:07 Where else can you learn to think like a boss
    0:12:09 with Martha Stewart or how to frame a shot
    0:12:10 with Martin Scorsese?
    0:12:13 You can even learn skateboarding tips with Tony Hawk.
    0:12:15 Masterclass is highly accessible.
    0:12:17 You can access it from your phone, computer, smart TV
    0:12:18 or even in audio mode.
    0:12:21 What’s more is that 88% of masterclass users claim
    0:12:24 that it’s made a positive impact on their daily lives.
    0:12:26 All this for just $10 a month
    0:12:28 when an annual subscription.
    0:12:29 I’ve checked out masterclass.
    0:12:32 I watched the aforementioned class with Martha Stewart.
    0:12:34 I also enjoyed the one with Bob Iger.
    0:12:37 Right now, our listeners get an additional 15%
    0:12:41 off any annual membership at masterclass.com/PropG.
    0:12:44 That’s 15% off at masterclass.com/PropG.
    0:12:47 Masterclass.com/PropG.
    0:12:56 Support for the show comes from Betterment.
    0:12:58 Do you want your money to be motivated?
    0:13:00 Do you want your money to rise and grind?
    0:13:03 Do you think your money should get up and work?
    0:13:05 Don’t worry, Betterment is here to help.
    0:13:07 Betterment is the automated investing and savings app
    0:13:09 that makes your money hustle.
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    0:13:13 Meaning when you invest with Betterment,
    0:13:15 your money can auto adjust
    0:13:16 as you get closer to your goal.
    0:13:19 Rebalance if your portfolio gets too far out of line
    0:13:22 and your dividends are automatically reinvested.
    0:13:24 That can increase the potential for compound returns.
    0:13:27 In other words, your money is working like a dog
    0:13:29 while you can be sleeping like one
    0:13:31 and snoring like one too.
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    0:13:38 that makes your money hustle.
    0:13:40 Visit betterment.com to get started.
    0:13:41 Investing involves risk.
    0:13:43 Performance is not guaranteed.
    0:13:51 – Welcome back, question number three.
    0:13:53 – Hi, Prof. G, my name is Michael.
    0:13:55 I live in Altadena, California.
    0:13:57 I’m originally from Baltimore, Maryland.
    0:13:59 It was a tough city.
    0:14:00 When I reflect on my childhood,
    0:14:04 I think about times when I caught the public bus to school.
    0:14:06 I would be on there with crackheads, dope dealers,
    0:14:09 people just going to work trying to survive.
    0:14:11 I had conversations with these folks.
    0:14:12 I learned a lot.
    0:14:15 And it is still the level of grit inside of me.
    0:14:18 My question for you is, as I become a new father,
    0:14:21 how do I instill that level of grit inside of my children?
    0:14:23 So when life gets hard and throws them curveballs,
    0:14:25 they have the self-awareness and the durability
    0:14:27 to overcome any obstacles.
    0:14:30 My wife and I will remain in Southern California
    0:14:31 for the foreseeable future.
    0:14:33 Thank you.
    0:14:33 – Thanks, Michael.
    0:14:36 And I hope and trust you are not affected
    0:14:38 by the fires in Altadena.
    0:14:40 Just be clear, the first couple of years,
    0:14:42 let me break it down as a dad.
    0:14:44 And not everyone has the same experience.
    0:14:45 I’ll give you my experience.
    0:14:46 I pretended to like it.
    0:14:47 I thought it sucked.
    0:14:48 I was stressed out.
    0:14:50 I was stressed about money.
    0:14:52 I was just trying to keep this little science experiment
    0:14:56 away from a body of water and just keep it alive.
    0:14:58 And then slowly but surely,
    0:15:00 one of my favorite shows growing up
    0:15:02 was a show called “Frasier.”
    0:15:04 And “Frasier” is said about his son,
    0:15:06 you know, you fall in love with your kids.
    0:15:09 And that is, I didn’t, a switch didn’t turn on
    0:15:10 when my sons were born.
    0:15:12 And I’m like, oh, I’m madly in love with this thing.
    0:15:13 I was more scared and nauseous than anyone.
    0:15:16 By the way, childbirth is so disgusting.
    0:15:17 Try not to be in the room.
    0:15:19 I’m gonna get you for that.
    0:15:21 Anyways, you do fall in love.
    0:15:23 Or I found that over time, it just got better and better.
    0:15:27 It went from awful to less awful to tolerable to good to now.
    0:15:30 I just, quite frankly, I just have purpose in my life.
    0:15:32 I’ve figured out finally in my life what my purpose is
    0:15:36 and that is to raise loving patriotic men.
    0:15:41 And in terms of establishing grit for kids,
    0:15:41 I mean, there’s a couple of things.
    0:15:45 One, we have a tendency to overprotect offline
    0:15:46 and underprotect online.
    0:15:48 And it should be reversed.
    0:15:50 You’re, fortunately, all this bullshit around smartphones
    0:15:52 is probably gonna be solved or at least addressed
    0:15:54 by the time your kids are old enough.
    0:15:57 But some of the mistakes I’ve made,
    0:16:00 I didn’t instill enough about doing chores with my kids,
    0:16:01 such that they developed routine
    0:16:04 and saw connected reward with effort.
    0:16:06 They’re actually pretty good with money for some reason.
    0:16:07 I don’t know where they got that,
    0:16:09 but they understand the value of money.
    0:16:11 Sports and athletics.
    0:16:13 I started working out with my kids at a very young age
    0:16:16 and pushing them in such that they could understand their limits.
    0:16:19 The gift I got from rowing crew was that
    0:16:21 when you feel like you can’t take anymore physically,
    0:16:24 that means you’re about a third of the way
    0:16:25 to your actual limit.
    0:16:26 And crew teaches you that.
    0:16:28 It teaches you to break limits
    0:16:30 that you just are, you know,
    0:16:32 exceed limits you never thought were possible.
    0:16:34 And you can carry that to the rest of your life.
    0:16:37 So how do you do that with kids, sports, working out?
    0:16:40 Also letting them fail.
    0:16:42 There’s something called bulldozer or close to your parenting
    0:16:44 that is supposedly making a generation of fragile kids.
    0:16:46 What does that mean?
    0:16:48 I had someone call me and say, well, you’re an academic.
    0:16:50 Our daughter who straight A’s is getting a B
    0:16:52 and the teacher clearly does not like her.
    0:16:54 So we’re thinking about calling the principal.
    0:16:57 Can you give us, and it’s being unfair to her.
    0:16:58 Can you give us some words?
    0:17:00 I’m like, that is absolutely the worst thing
    0:17:01 you could do for your daughter.
    0:17:03 Your daughter’s going to face injustice
    0:17:05 and unfair assholes the rest of her life.
    0:17:06 And she needs to learn how to deal with it
    0:17:08 and maybe cope with disappointment.
    0:17:11 And so we have developed this so much bulldozer
    0:17:12 and close to your parenting
    0:17:14 where we clear out all the obstacles for our kids
    0:17:17 that they developed as princess in the peace syndrome
    0:17:20 where they show up to college, get their heart broken,
    0:17:23 get their first D and they freak out.
    0:17:25 You want, you don’t want to use so many sanitary wipes
    0:17:27 on your kids lives that they don’t develop
    0:17:28 their own immunity.
    0:17:29 So what I do in this is hard.
    0:17:31 I’ll give you an example.
    0:17:33 My youngest is going to meet his friends
    0:17:36 at the Westfield Mall, which is a very nice mall in London.
    0:17:38 I order him an Uber, which I probably shouldn’t do.
    0:17:39 He has a goddamn Uber app.
    0:17:40 Why am I doing it?
    0:17:42 I typed in the wrong Westfield
    0:17:44 and he ended up on the wrong side of town
    0:17:47 of London freaking out, calling me, calling his mom,
    0:17:49 his mom calling me and I decided to put my foot down.
    0:17:52 I’m like, you got a smartphone, you got an Uber account,
    0:17:55 figure it out, figure it out, right?
    0:17:57 He’s panicked and he did figure it out.
    0:17:59 He actually found that the subway was the fastest way
    0:18:00 to get to the right mall.
    0:18:03 He went in, he has his oyster card and he got there.
    0:18:07 That builds confidence, that builds resilience.
    0:18:08 Summer jobs.
    0:18:13 My oldest who is 17 is now thinking about, you know,
    0:18:15 what makes his resume look good for college?
    0:18:20 And he’s doing these things that are kind of,
    0:18:21 I don’t know, he’s thinking about biology
    0:18:22 or something in the sciences.
    0:18:25 So he’s going to intern at the medical clinic.
    0:18:27 And I said to him, this is what you do.
    0:18:30 We vacation on an island or we spend summers on an island.
    0:18:33 I’m like, I want you to get a job washing dishes
    0:18:35 or being a bus boy.
    0:18:37 Services jobs build grit.
    0:18:38 It’s where I got a lot of mind.
    0:18:39 And not only that, it builds empathy.
    0:18:40 So what do we have?
    0:18:42 We have chores, we have jobs,
    0:18:46 we have sports, and we have a lack of concierge
    0:18:47 or bulldozer parenting.
    0:18:50 And occasionally we let the kids fail
    0:18:53 and then tell them, I don’t know, that’s a tough one.
    0:18:54 You need to figure it out.
    0:18:58 This, I hope for you that having children
    0:18:59 does what it did for me.
    0:19:01 And that has given me a sense of purpose
    0:19:02 and a sense of peace.
    0:19:04 Thanks so much for the question.
    0:19:06 That’s all for this episode.
    0:19:07 If you’d like to submit a question,
    0:19:08 please email a voice recording
    0:19:10 to officehours@prophgmedia.com.
    0:19:14 Again, that’s officehours@prophgmedia.com.
    0:19:23 (upbeat music)
    0:19:25 This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez.
    0:19:27 Our intern is Dan Chalon.
    0:19:29 Drew Burroughs is our technical director.
    0:19:31 Thank you for listening to Prophogy Pod
    0:19:33 from the Box Media Podcast Network.
    0:19:34 We will catch you on Saturday
    0:19:37 for “No Mercy, No Mouse” as read by George Hahn.
    0:19:39 And please follow our Prophogy Markets Pod
    0:19:42 wherever you get your pods for new episodes
    0:19:43 every Monday and Thursday.

    Scott discusses social security and Medicare and whether its future is at risk. He then advises an early-career listener looking to pivot and wraps up with parenting advice.

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  • YAPCreator: Master Audience Engagement and Create Content That Clicks | Presented by OpusClip

    AI transcript
    0:00:06 Today’s episode is sponsored in part by Robinhood Airbnb Shopify RocketMoney NordVPN and Indeed.
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    0:01:02 public Wi-Fi. To get the best discount off your NordVPN plan, go to nordvpn.com/profiting.
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    0:01:13 at indeed.com/profiting. Terms and conditions apply. As always, you can find all of our incredible
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    0:01:35 Hey, Young and Profiters! Welcome to episode five of the Yap Creator series presented by OpusClip.
    0:01:39 In this series, we’re diving deep into the art and science of content creation,
    0:01:43 how to create, connect, and thrive as a modern-day content creator.
    0:01:47 Today we’re going deep into something that every content creator should master,
    0:01:52 understanding, and adapting to audience preferences. This is the heartbeat of effective content
    0:01:58 creation, the foundation of building a loyal, engaged community that feels connected to you
    0:02:03 and your brand. In this episode, I’ll break down why analyzing audience behavior is so critical,
    0:02:08 and I’ll give you actionable strategies to help you understand your audience and their preferences
    0:02:14 better. We’ll feature podcast guests like Ken Okazaki, Neil Patel, Julie Solomon,
    0:02:19 O.S. Perlman, and I’ll even share with you how we use audience insights at Yap to create content
    0:02:28 that’s relevant and impactful. Let’s get started! First things first, before you can forge a
    0:02:33 meaningful connection with an audience, you need to figure out who they are. As a content creator,
    0:02:38 understanding the balance between a broad and niche audience is crucial for growing your engagement
    0:02:43 and your business. Broad content allows you to reach a wider audience and potentially increase
    0:02:49 views and revenue, while niche content creates deeper and more meaningful connections with a
    0:02:54 dedicated community. The key is finding the balance that works for you, and whether you’re
    0:02:59 marketing a product, a service, or just yourself, it’s useful to start by thinking in terms of
    0:03:04 your TAM, or your total addressable market, but just how big or small should you start?
    0:03:09 This is what Neil Patel, an expert on digital marketing, told me about how he approaches
    0:03:18 a potential audience. What makes a good audience market to me is a big TAM. So, assuming you find
    0:03:21 something you’re passionate about by just through trial and error, you’ve got to make sure you’re
    0:03:27 focusing on a big TAM. Everyone says the riches are in the niches. That’s far from true. If you
    0:03:31 look at the majority of the large corporations out there, like Tesla’s, Automotive, right?
    0:03:36 People need cars in this world. If you look at Microsoft, everyone needs software to run these
    0:03:41 computers and digital devices that we’re on. If you look at Google, we’re relying on search for
    0:03:48 anything and someone organizing data and feeding it to us in a very organized fashion. If you look
    0:03:54 at Apple, we need all these hardware pieces that they’re selling from, headphones to cell phones
    0:03:58 to laptops, right? These are large markets. If you look again, look at the biggest companies
    0:04:04 in the world, they’re going after large markets and not niches. So, the key is to go after a big
    0:04:09 TAM. Now, you can start in a niche if you want and there’s nothing wrong with that, but you need
    0:04:15 to make sure that you can expand that niche into a large market because the amount of effort it takes
    0:04:22 to market a business, whether it’s on LinkedIn or any social platform or even SEO, for a niche
    0:04:27 compared to a large market is almost the same amount of effort. Sure, it’s harder in a large
    0:04:32 market. It takes longer to see results, but it’s the same process in the same time and energy that
    0:04:37 you’re putting into it. So, might as well go after something big because it’s very unrealistic to be
    0:04:42 in a niche and being like, you know what? I’m going to dominate this niche and gobble up 100% of the
    0:04:50 market share or even 20, 30%. That’s very hard to do. But on the flip side, it’s easier to say,
    0:04:56 hey, I’m going to go after this multi-billion-dollar market and I’m going to gobble up 0.1% of it,
    0:05:00 right? You gobble up even something small. That’s enough money where you’re generating
    0:05:04 millions of dollars where it’s meaningful, right? For example, if it’s a $10 billion market that
    0:05:11 you’re going after, you gobble up 0.1%, that’s big enough to create amazing life and a business.
    0:05:15 So, you’re saying you need a big, sort of more broad market. You don’t want to get
    0:05:20 two in the niches because they’re really hard to find. That’s like finding a needle in a haystack.
    0:05:25 When you’re a marketer, you want to find your audience in mass. You want to target them in
    0:05:29 mass. That’s how you’re going to target them in the cheapest way, the most effective way.
    0:05:33 If you have to find 10 people here, 10 people there, it’s like you are just going to exhaust
    0:05:40 yourself and it’s going to be very expensive. Exactly right. You need to go after a big market
    0:05:46 so that way you don’t have to have frequency issues of like, oh, I’ve shown my ad to 500 people.
    0:05:50 All right. How many more people can you show? Well, that’s my only audience or even 10,000
    0:05:56 people. It’s not enough. You need to go after the masses. Yeah. So, I know that you have a formula
    0:06:01 for marketing that you talk about. Could you break that down for us? Sure. So, number one,
    0:06:07 go after a really big tam. Once you have a big tam, then if you want to do well, you need to take
    0:06:15 an omnichannel approach from LinkedIn to Facebook to Instagram to WhatsApp marketing through text,
    0:06:22 through email marketing to SEO, to paid advertising. It doesn’t matter if you like paid ads on Facebook
    0:06:27 or not. If it’s profitable, it’s profitable. You got to keep leveraging it. And then from there,
    0:06:31 you got to figure out how to add in the upsells and downsells, because if you look at marketing
    0:06:36 over time, it continually costs more and more. So, you got to add in the upsells and downsells.
    0:06:40 In other words, build that funnel, figure out how to generate more revenue from that same customer.
    0:06:45 And if they’re buying more right at purchase, it allows you to spend more money on marketing,
    0:06:49 as well as figure out a way to generate reoccurring revenues.
    0:06:56 However broad or narrow you go with your potential audience and whatever channel
    0:07:01 you reach them through, remember that you are ultimately the one picking your audience. That’s
    0:07:08 right. Your audience is your choice. And building an audience is really its own kind of a business.
    0:07:13 In fact, none other than Mr. Side Hustle himself, Nick Loper, shared with me how he now considers
    0:07:19 building an audience on channels like YouTube to be one of the most promising side hustles around.
    0:07:26 Something that I read of yours that I thought was really interesting is that you actually consider
    0:07:32 a side hustle being growing an audience, right? You call it an audience business. So talk to us
    0:07:37 about why having an audience in itself can be a side hustle with multiple avenues.
    0:07:44 Yeah, this is probably tier three. Tier one services, tier two products. Tier three is this
    0:07:50 really flexible hybrid content-based business, audience-based business, where it could be a
    0:07:55 social following, it could be a blog following, a podcast following, a YouTube following.
    0:08:02 And once you have people paying attention, the entire playbook opens up. Sure, you could sell
    0:08:06 services, you could sell products, you could sell attention in the form of advertising or affiliate
    0:08:11 partnerships. But it really is a powerful place to play. And that’s really where I spent the bulk
    0:08:16 of my side hustle and entrepreneurial time over the last 10 years to try and figure out how to get
    0:08:21 more traffic, how to get more listeners, how to get more email subscribers and play in that space.
    0:08:29 Because the scale is almost infinite, right? It takes, as you know, the same effort and energy
    0:08:35 and investment to create an episode, a podcast episode that 10 people listen to or 10,000 people
    0:08:41 listen to or 100,000 people. And so it’s a really unique platform in that way and the same thing
    0:08:49 with social content or video content. Whatever content arena you decide to play in, it’s not
    0:08:54 just enough to turn up and churn out content. Julie Solomon, who’s the queen of influencer
    0:09:00 marketing and an expert on how to break through on platforms like Instagram, explains the critical
    0:09:05 distinction between simply creating content and producing content that genuinely drives results
    0:09:13 with your audience. When it comes to Instagram, because that’s really been my platform of choice
    0:09:18 since 2013. So I have been there through the ups and downs and the in-betweens. And I think that
    0:09:25 where most people get it wrong is that they get so lost in having to have to do it a certain way
    0:09:33 or trying to beat some kind of system or some kind of algorithm. And what I have noticed throughout
    0:09:38 a decade plus of supporting people on Instagram and coaching them in order to build a brand
    0:09:45 invisibility there is that, yes, it’s important to understand things like hashtags and SEO and
    0:09:51 viral hooks and all of those kinds of things. But really at the end of the day, it just comes down
    0:09:59 to do you have value-based content that is specifically talking to the person whose problem
    0:10:06 that you solve and are you showing up as an authority and as someone that can educate them
    0:10:13 as being that solution provider as consistently as possible. And most of the time, people aren’t
    0:10:17 doing that because they’re so focused on these things that really just don’t matter at the
    0:10:26 end of the day. And that’s why I have a lot of people that will come to me and it’s wild
    0:10:31 that they’ve got tens, if not hundreds of thousands of followers and they make no money.
    0:10:37 And I’m thinking, how do you have all this and you don’t make money? And it’s because
    0:10:42 maybe they figured out a way to go viral or maybe they figured out some kind of
    0:10:48 giveaway process to gain a following or maybe they did some collabs. But because they weren’t
    0:10:53 creating that value from the get-go, because they weren’t thinking about, what do I specialize in?
    0:10:57 What is my offer? Why do I want to pick up this phone and post something every day?
    0:11:01 It’s like they completely missed the boat. And before they know it, they’re three months in or
    0:11:05 three years in or 10 years in and then they come to me and they’re like, Julie, I don’t understand
    0:11:12 how I’ve kind of been trying to grow and piecemilling it together and maybe I’ve gotten to a thousand
    0:11:15 followers and nothing’s happening or maybe I’ve gotten to a hundred thousand followers, but still
    0:11:20 nothing’s happening because I’m not making any money. And so what’s happening here? And so I think
    0:11:25 that for growth on Instagram, you really have to think about that through line. Are you just
    0:11:31 creating content just to create content? Because that is just a hobby or are you actually creating
    0:11:36 content to solve a problem for somebody, to be of service to someone, to be a solution provider
    0:11:40 for someone? Because that’s how you actually end up monetizing it. And those are two completely
    0:11:45 different focuses. Totally agree with that. And also from a sponsorship perspective, it’s also
    0:11:50 important to think of this because if you’re just creating mindless content that’s going viral,
    0:11:56 maybe you’re reposting viral videos and you’ve got this huge broad audience, but nobody knows
    0:12:01 what you stand for. You’re not the actual influencer. Your content went viral. You didn’t
    0:12:06 necessarily go viral. Your ideas and your products and services didn’t necessarily go viral. It’s
    0:12:13 just content. And so it’s hard to get brand sponsorships when you actually are not an influencer
    0:12:18 and your content just went viral because there’s no way to really describe your audience. It’s hard
    0:12:23 for brands to understand who they’re targeting exactly. So that’s something else to think about.
    0:12:29 Yeah, I call those people cold creators that they are showing up to create content, but there is no
    0:12:34 warmth behind them focusing on building the know, like and trust. And we even see this with a lot
    0:12:40 of massive influencers out there. You think about, you know, Charlie, I can’t remember her last name,
    0:12:44 but she was on Dancing with the Stars. Her family had a reality show. Her and her sisters went viral
    0:12:50 on TikTok. And now it’s like, not only is there, all they talk about is how their mental health is
    0:12:54 just like all over the place. They can’t show up. They can’t be consistent. They’re not happy. They’re
    0:12:58 not fulfilled. But a lot of the brand deals that they’ve started to do, whether that’s product
    0:13:01 lines that they’ve launched or what have you, have now been pulled off the shelves because
    0:13:06 they’re not converting. And the reason why is because they didn’t take the time to build that
    0:13:10 know, like and trust with their audience. They didn’t take the time to really build a brand
    0:13:15 around the reputation that they wanted to have. They were just creating content for the sake of
    0:13:20 creating content and, you know, doing it on TikTok and blowing up, but now they don’t have anything
    0:13:25 to show for it. And there’s a lot of creators that that has happened to over time that have gone on
    0:13:31 to maybe get a Sephora, you know, makeup deal. But then a year later, they don’t have any makeup
    0:13:39 in the stores and it’s because it can’t sell. So how do we figure out exactly what will resonate
    0:13:45 best with our target audience? To truly connect with that audience and create content that genuinely
    0:13:50 serves their needs, you need to understand what interests them, what drives them, what thrills
    0:13:55 them. Understanding what your audience wants is the foundation of creating content that stands out,
    0:14:00 even since the dawn of time when early humans were telling their first stories around the
    0:14:06 communal fire. Of course, nowadays, most of our audiences are online, but we can still learn a
    0:14:11 lot about how to shape and respond to an audience from those who are gifted performers and make
    0:14:17 their living by delighting live audiences. The magician and mentalist, Oz Perlman, is one such
    0:14:22 performer. And he shared with me some fascinating insights into how he uses deep knowledge of
    0:14:31 human behavior to read an audience. Every show is different, which is great because every audience
    0:14:35 is different, right? Think about it. If you’re watching a movie, the movie is always the same,
    0:14:40 versus what I do is not like watching a singer or a band where, you know, they can change the song
    0:14:45 a little bit, but it’s still the same song. For me, everything I do involves audience interaction.
    0:14:52 My show is the audience because like if I’m doing a show for a thousand people, 50, 60, 100 of them
    0:14:55 will be a part of it. At some point, I throw frisbees around the audience, we hand envelopes,
    0:15:02 we pick people out of the whole crowd. I’ve done arenas before with 10,000 people. And what my
    0:15:07 show is all about is audience reactions, watching someone’s face and that shock and that amazement,
    0:15:12 and sometimes that just absolute silence. When you’ve done something that seems impossible or you’ve
    0:15:17 told them something, there’s no way you could have known or anticipated. And that’s really the
    0:15:23 product I’m selling is very memorable moments, usually with a lot of emotional impact. And so
    0:15:28 it’s helpful in certain parts of everyday life. But it’s funny because not as if I can just walk
    0:15:33 into a real estate negotiation and be like, I know their bottom line. I know how much money
    0:15:38 I’m saving like it works in certain ways. It’s helpful. It’s an edge, but it’s not the same. It’s
    0:15:45 a facade. You know, it’s an entertainment pursuit because in my shows, I’m the director.
    0:15:48 I get to call the shots in a certain way. So I wish I could tell you, I’d go to the poker table
    0:15:54 and just make millions. Funny enough, a lot of casinos, they have people trained in what I do
    0:15:58 going against me. They’re the ones who are making sure that I can’t cheat.
    0:16:03 Got it. Got it. And that reminds me of something that I’ve also heard you said,
    0:16:07 where you say that your profession is more like a comedian than it is a magician because you’re
    0:16:12 actually feeding off the audience and not just like doing the same thing over and over again.
    0:16:18 Totally. And it’s hard to practice what I do. So a magician, think about it, can practice,
    0:16:22 like I use an example of a card trick. You can practice a card trick at home in front of the
    0:16:28 mirror for days, weeks, years, and perfect the moves that are required. Same thing with a juggler,
    0:16:34 let’s call it. But a comedian has to tell their joke. He or she tells their joke. And the only way
    0:16:40 you know if it’s funny is if an audience reacts. The audience is your canvas. So the exact same
    0:16:44 thing applies. And that’s the reason right there, why there’s so much fewer mentalists than magicians.
    0:16:51 Because the learning curve is so steep, you can’t get better without first bombing. So you need to
    0:16:56 be bad and start doing it and getting better and better with audiences. And a lot of people don’t
    0:17:01 have that stomach. They can’t deal with that level of rejection over and over and not be good for years
    0:17:11 at times. The audience is your canvas. I just love that. And it’s just as true for an online
    0:17:17 audience. The best online content isn’t just a one way broadcast. It’s a conversation. It’s about
    0:17:22 give and take where we’re tuning into what our audience really wants, what resonates with them,
    0:17:27 and what keeps them coming back. In other words, you’re not creating content for yourself. Just
    0:17:32 like Oz Perlman, you’re responding to what your audience is telling you, even when it’s through
    0:17:39 nonverbal cues like likes, shares, and comments. Every interaction is a signal and your audience
    0:17:44 is showing what they relate to, what they’re curious about, and sometimes what just isn’t clicking.
    0:17:50 At times you may bomb just like a stand up comedian or a live performer might. The magic happens when
    0:17:55 you take the time to interpret these signals and respond to them. That’s when your content goes from
    0:18:01 good to great. But figuring out an audience, of course, takes time. Perhaps nobody I’ve spoken
    0:18:05 to knows this better than my good friend, the entrepreneur and the host of the Social Proof
    0:18:11 podcast, David Chance. David is one of the hardest working people I know. And as you’ll hear,
    0:18:15 he knows his audience down to their daily routine and their habits.
    0:18:23 So I have to ask you, for anybody who’s starting their YouTube journey now,
    0:18:28 like you said, you started in 13 years ago or something like that. But 2023, it’s a whole
    0:18:32 different game. You’re still crushing it. You still know how to get views and all of that.
    0:18:35 So how can we get more engagement on YouTube, more views and subscribers?
    0:18:43 One, you have to be good at it. It’s not like, I don’t have a one to three step
    0:18:51 for someone that’s not good. That doesn’t ask good questions or put up amazing content or
    0:18:53 come out with shareable stuff. There’s nothing I can do for you.
    0:19:02 You have to practice the craft. It’s really cool because for two years of actually doing the podcast
    0:19:08 and putting it on YouTube, I wasn’t thinking money for 10 years. I mean, while I was doing,
    0:19:16 so I started 2010, I didn’t start monetizing until 2020. For those 10 years, I’m not even
    0:19:21 thinking that YouTube makes money. I never even thought about it. My only thing was,
    0:19:28 are people liking this content? Are they sharing it? Are they commenting? And I was focused on
    0:19:35 having a good show and being a good interviewer and being engaging. So that’s where I’m blessed
    0:19:40 because I came before the era of jump on YouTube to make a million dollars.
    0:19:48 I had time to perfect my craft. One, you just have to be good at it. I don’t care if you’re
    0:19:55 super consistent. You have the best camera, best lighting, best, if the content isn’t amazing,
    0:20:03 it’s not going to work. Practice your craft. You really need to find a niche that you’re passionate
    0:20:10 about and that other people are passionate about. You have to brand yourself around this conversation.
    0:20:16 So I brand, my whole world is branded around podcasting and entrepreneurship. One, I’ve been
    0:20:22 doing it for 10 years or longer than that, my whole life really, but this whole podcasting thing,
    0:20:27 in entrepreneurship, my whole world is that. My bio says it. If you talk to me long enough,
    0:20:33 we’re going to talk about podcasting or entrepreneurship. That’s my brand. So I have
    0:20:38 a niche. I have an audience. I know all the things that my audience is struggling with.
    0:20:44 That’s how I can tell you, all right, so you got to stop stopping. You got to stop.
    0:20:48 One of the worst things that can happen to an entrepreneur is a little bit of success because
    0:20:53 other people see that little bit of success and they start inviting you to their thing that they’re
    0:20:58 doing and it’s going to take you off path. The reason I know that is because I’ve been through it
    0:21:03 and I’ve been coaching entrepreneurs for the last decade on this space. So I know my audience,
    0:21:07 I know exactly what they’re going through. So you need to know your audience know exactly what
    0:21:12 they’re going through. You for sure need to be consistent. So the best way to do that is
    0:21:18 have a consistent day that you record, whether it’s every Wednesday, every Thursday,
    0:21:24 we record our podcasts every Wednesday for sure. Now somebody can’t do Wednesday and
    0:21:28 they’re a big enough guess. We’ll do it on Thursday or do it on Tuesday because I’m on
    0:21:33 studio. So it’s cool, but I have a specific day that we record. We have a specific day that we
    0:21:40 release and it’s consistent. If you think of your favorite shows growing up, it wasn’t sporadic when
    0:21:47 they delivered the content. It was the same time, same day every single week because people put their,
    0:21:53 they put your show or your content into their life. So I’ve released my podcast at seven in the
    0:21:58 morning because I know there are people going to work and I want them to listen to my podcast on
    0:22:04 their way to work because I want them to be inspired. I want them to be motivated and this is
    0:22:09 their thing. It’s in the routine. If anything ever happens, like there’s a misfire on the
    0:22:15 scheduling or something like that, I get messages. Hey, you ain’t released this episode? What happened?
    0:22:20 What happened? What happened? I’m like, whoa, let me find out what’s going on because they
    0:22:31 I show into the framework of their lives and you can’t disappoint or you’ll break trust. So if you
    0:22:36 say every Monday at seven o’clock, it’s going to release and sometimes it’s at seven, sometimes at
    0:22:42 two PM, sometimes it releases on Tuesday. Sometimes it just doesn’t release that week.
    0:22:47 You’re breaking the trust because now I can’t trust you to put this in my schedule anymore.
    0:22:56 So yeah, and also looking at the trends, studying your craft, studying what’s working in your
    0:23:02 industry. And yeah, I think if you put all of those together and you’re good at it, it will grow,
    0:23:09 period. If you want to have a detailed understanding of your audience like David,
    0:23:14 you need information. And today, the best tools for understanding audience preferences
    0:23:20 is our data and analytics. It might not sound super glamorous, but trust me, these numbers are
    0:23:26 gold. Engagement metrics like views, likes, comments and shares reveal what topics and
    0:23:31 formats your audience is drawn to. By analyzing these patterns, you get insights that might
    0:23:36 otherwise go unnoticed. Data doesn’t lie. If you’re not looking at your analytics,
    0:23:41 you’re missing out on a treasure trove of information that can help guide your content strategy.
    0:23:46 At YAP, we regularly review our analytics to spot trends and highlight what’s working.
    0:23:52 It’s about more than just knowing which episodes are posted well. It’s about understanding why.
    0:23:57 If a specific topic or guest sees a surge in engagement, that tells us that our audience is
    0:24:01 interested in that subject and we might explore it further in future episodes.
    0:24:06 And we’re not just looking at the numbers. We’re looking at the why behind the numbers.
    0:24:10 What was it about this particular guest or topic that hit the mark?
    0:24:13 Was there something in the style or the format that people responded to?
    0:24:19 By digging into these insights, we can adapt and evolve our content to meet our audience’s
    0:24:24 preferences. On the other hand, if certain themes or styles consistently underperform,
    0:24:29 it’s a sign that we may need to rethink our approach or pivot. Analytics is not just about
    0:24:34 measuring success. It’s about learning, adapting and evolving based on the hard evidence. It’s
    0:24:39 like having a compass that guides the direction of your content. But you have to be willing to
    0:24:44 act on that feedback you get from your audience. And next, we’ll learn how you can harness feedback
    0:24:52 to create even better content. Flexibility is crucial in content creation.
    0:24:57 You don’t need to change who you are, but you can refine how you present yourself to meet your
    0:25:02 audience where they are. One of my favorite examples of using data and feedback to know your
    0:25:07 audience better was shared with me by video marketing expert Ken Okazaki. Sometimes meeting
    0:25:13 your audience where they are means literally knowing where they are, even if that happens to be on
    0:25:24 the toilet. So fun fact, and I’ve heard you talk about this a few times. 80% of men and 69% of women
    0:25:28 use their phone while on the toilet. And you’ve taken this data and created something called the
    0:25:32 toilet strategy. So what is the toilet strategy and what does this data tell us about how we should
    0:25:37 be conducting video marketing? Yeah, I should probably look that up. I don’t know if the numbers
    0:25:43 have gone up or down. A couple of years ago, I wrote that book. But I don’t know about you, but I
    0:25:53 happened to use my phone in the toilet. And when I realized that there’s that huge percentage,
    0:25:56 because that’s kind of like literally your downtime, right? So that’s when you’re like,
    0:26:00 you know, you’re checking messages, linking to social media. And there’s a couple of things
    0:26:04 going on here. And right now, it may seem obvious. But when I first presented this at a conference,
    0:26:07 everybody was like, oh, my, you know, smack my head, like, that’s, that’s so obvious. Why didn’t
    0:26:14 I think of it? But when your audience is in the toilet, you have to, well, put it this way, tune
    0:26:17 your videos as if you’re speaking to someone on the toilet. So there’s a couple things going on.
    0:26:22 Number one, you, you want to make sure there’s captions on every single word, because when you’re
    0:26:26 in a public bathroom, it’s very rare that you’re going to want the speakers blaring while you’re
    0:26:31 in there, right? So immediately someone’s going to mute, if they can’t hear you, or read you,
    0:26:34 then they’re going to skip off, right? So that’s rule number one. Rule number two about the toilet
    0:26:41 strategy is the length. There are so many times on where I’ve seen a video, I thought this is great.
    0:26:45 And then what we’ve done is eye tracking tests. The first thing we look at is the title to see
    0:26:50 if we want to stop the second one is the person’s eyes. The third place we look, believe it or not,
    0:26:56 is the play bar to see how long it is. And that’s through eye tracking data. And if the video is
    0:27:01 too long, like you probably want to spend five minutes in the bathroom max, if it’s a 20 minute
    0:27:05 video, what happens is this is a great video, but I don’t have 20 minutes to see Safer Later,
    0:27:10 which by the way, nobody ever goes to the Safer Later video and actually watches them. It’s,
    0:27:16 it is a black hole where things go in and never come back out. So you never want to get Safer
    0:27:20 Later. So there’s the length, you want to keep it, you know, two minutes max. Nowadays, it’s under
    0:27:25 a minute. It keeps getting shorter. Oh, the third thing is really the big title on top. Now,
    0:27:31 that’s kind of changed because nowadays, with the way TikTok format videos have really taken over,
    0:27:36 the algorithm chooses what shows up. It’s not what you subscribe to. So it doesn’t matter
    0:27:42 quite as much, but I think it’s quite effective on some platforms where the thumbnail is going to
    0:27:46 be much more prominent than the actual video itself. For example, YouTube.
    0:27:55 The toilet strategy might be an extreme example, but it shows how responding to data and feedback
    0:27:59 you’re given about your audience can allow you to transform your content in a way that will
    0:28:05 connect even better with them. At Yap, we’re always actively listening to feedback. We read
    0:28:09 comments, look at engagement metrics, and keep an eye out on the formats that are doing well.
    0:28:14 For instance, that we’ve seen that our audience really responds to a conversational style and
    0:28:20 interviews. So we integrate that into more episodes purposefully. And if a certain topic, style, or
    0:28:26 format isn’t resonating, we’re not afraid to just switch it up. Think of adaptation as a cycle.
    0:28:31 You put out content, gauge your response, and then adjust. And if you do this over and over again,
    0:28:37 and turn up for your audience on a regular basis, you will acquire some powerful insights from them.
    0:28:41 And their feedback will not only help you improve existing content,
    0:28:47 but it will also help you generate bold new ideas. Now here’s Ken Okazaki again with more.
    0:28:55 If you don’t show up, things don’t happen. And that’s when success builds on success.
    0:29:00 And that’s when people start realizing, hey, this person is a pillar in this vertical,
    0:29:06 in this niche, in this industry. And the more they hear you, the more they want to hear about you.
    0:29:10 I’m not going to go into too much detail here for the sake of time, but the rock stars are the people
    0:29:19 who, in a nutshell, you’re no longer pushing your content. Your audience is pulling the content
    0:29:24 from you. The demand for it is greater than your effort to push it out there. You’re getting
    0:29:28 more people to share it. You’re getting people requesting to be on your show. You’re getting
    0:29:32 so much engagement that you’ll never run out of ideas because you could just look at the comments
    0:29:40 and use that for your content ideas. And that’s that feeling of getting pulled. And once you reach
    0:29:46 that, there’s a lot of people who just realize that there is this, I guess it’s like the flywheel
    0:29:52 type of feeling. And that’s flow. And that’s where that’s where I want all my clients to get.
    0:30:00 This willingness to evolve shows your audience that you’re paying attention and that you respect
    0:30:05 their preferences. It’s a win-win. You’re creating content that’s meaningful and relevant. And your
    0:30:10 audience feels more connected to you because they know their feedback genuinely matters.
    0:30:15 When you understand your audience, it transforms your entire approach. You’re not guessing, you’re
    0:30:20 responding. And that makes all the difference. When you approach content as a partnership with
    0:30:26 your audience, you’re building something powerful, a loyal, engaged community that trusts you and
    0:30:34 wants to come back again and again. Now, adapting to your audience doesn’t mean starting from scratch
    0:30:41 every time. At YAP, we’ve streamlined this process with OpusClip, a tool that analyzes your raw footage,
    0:30:47 pulls in the best moments, and assigns a virality score to give you an idea of how viral each clip
    0:30:53 might be. Here’s how it helped us with one of our biggest viral videos yet. When we released my podcast
    0:31:00 interview with communication expert Matt Abraham, we used OpusClip’s AI to analyze the hour-long
    0:31:06 conversation. It identified emotional peaks, keyword hooks, and moments where viewer curiosity spiked.
    0:31:11 Instead of guessing which clips would work, OpusClip highlighted 12 high potential moments
    0:31:17 ranked by their ability to peak curiosity. We chose the top five clips, like Matt’s descriptive
    0:31:24 moment. My team turned them into a 30-second intro, and the result? 50% more viewers stayed past the
    0:31:30 30-second mark, leading to a better watch time and a much greater reach. The video now sets at over
    0:31:37 123,000 views and counting, making it one of the best-performing videos on my channel. If you’re
    0:31:43 not using tools like OpusClip to test and refine your content, you’re missing on a great opportunity
    0:31:48 to stay connected with your audience. OpusClip helps you get the most out of your content by
    0:31:53 highlighting the moments that resonate most. Instead of guessing, you’re making informed
    0:32:01 decisions that keep your strategy aligned with your audience preferences. Well, yeah, fam,
    0:32:07 that’s it for episode five of the Yap Creator series. By paying attention to engagement, using
    0:32:12 data to guide your strategy and creating a feedback loop, you can build a stronger connection with
    0:32:17 your audience and keep your content fresh and relevant. And if you’re ready to do this and
    0:32:22 to take your content to the next level, try OpusClip today. You can let OpusClip help you create
    0:32:31 awesome videos that will drive engagement at opus.pro/clipanything. That’s opus.pro/clipanything.
    0:32:35 Thanks again for tuning in, and we’ll see you in episode six, where we unlock the secrets of
    0:32:40 content creation with the focus on how AI is changing the game.
    0:32:50 [Music]
    0:32:53 (upbeat music)
    0:33:01 [BLANK_AUDIO]

    If you’ve ever felt like your content just isn’t sticking, you might not be speaking your audience’s language. But figuring out what resonates isn’t a guessing game. There are real strategies to find what connects, cut what doesn’t, and adjust on the fly. In this episode of the YAPCreator Series, presented by OpusClip, Hala Taha breaks down why analyzing audience behavior is critical. She also shares powerful strategies to help you better understand your audience and their preferences so you can create content that captivates, converts, and keeps people coming back for more.

    In this episode, Hala will discuss: 

    (00:00) Introduction

    (02:45) Understanding Your Audience

    (03:24) Neil Patel on Finding the Right Audience

    (07:29) Nick Loper on Turning an Audience into a Business

    (09:11) Creating Value-Based Content with Julie Solomon

    (14:33) Engaging Your Audience with Oz Perlman

    (18:19) Mastering YouTube with David Shands

    (23:25) Leveraging Data and Analytics

    (25:18) Ken Okazaki’s “Toilet Strategy” for Viral Videos

    (28:21) Adapting and Evolving Your Content

    (30:55) Using OpusClip for Viral Content

    Try OpusClip for FREE:

    Visit https://www.opus.pro/clipanything 

    Resources Mentioned:

    YAP E226 with Neil Patel: https://youngandprofiting.co/4gqjng0 

    YAP E325 with Nick Loper: https://youngandprofiting.co/40MTrVM 

    YAP E233 with Oz Pearlman: https://youngandprofiting.co/42DkUMt 

    YAP E292 with Julie Solomon: https://youngandprofiting.co/4jJTpXp 

    YAP E230 with Ken Okazaki: https://youngandprofiting.co/3Ervwnx 

    Active Deals – youngandprofiting.com/deals 

    Key YAP Links

    Reviews – ratethispodcast.com/yap 

    Youtube – youtube.com/c/YoungandProfiting

    LinkedIn – linkedin.com/in/htaha

    Instagram – instagram.com/yapwithhala

    Social + Podcast Services: yapmedia.com 

    Transcripts – youngandprofiting.com/episodes-new 

  • How the scratch off lottery changed America

    Americans spend more on scratch lottery tickets per year than on pizza. More than all Coca-Cola products. Yet the scratch ticket as a consumer item has only existed for fifty years. Not so long ago, the idea of an instant lottery, of gambling with a little sheet of paper, was strange. Scary, even.

    So, how did scratch lotteries go from an idea that states wanted nothing to do with, to a commonplace item? It started in a small, super-liberal, once-puritanical state: Massachusetts. Adults there now spend – on average – $1,037 every year on lottery tickets – mostly scratch tickets. On today’s episode, a collaboration with GBH’s podcast Scratch & Win, we hear the story of… the scratch-off lottery ticket!

    This episode was hosted by Ian Coss and Kenny Malone. Scratch & Win from GBH is produced by Isabel Hibbard and edited by Lacy Roberts. The executive producer is Devin Maverick Robins. Our version of the podcast was produced by James Sneed. It was edited by Alex Goldmark, engineered by Valentina Rodríguez Sánchez, and fact-checked by Sierra Juarez. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money‘s executive producer.

    Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.

    Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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  • When Is a Superstar Just Another Employee? (Update)

    AI transcript
    0:00:04 [MUSIC]
    0:00:08 Hey there, it’s Stephen Dubner, and I thought you might need a bonus episode of
    0:00:10 Freakonomics Radio for the upcoming Super Bowl.
    0:00:14 We recently put out a new episode about the economics of the running back
    0:00:15 position in the NFL.
    0:00:19 This episode, which we first published in 2023,
    0:00:23 looked at NFL teams as employers.
    0:00:27 We’ve updated facts and figures as necessary, although the team rankings we
    0:00:30 discussed are from the 2023 report card.
    0:00:34 So stick around to the end to hear what changed in 2024.
    0:00:36 As always, thanks for listening.
    0:00:43 [MUSIC]
    0:00:47 When I say the words workplace environment, where does your mind go?
    0:00:51 If you’re like most people, you might think about an environment like this.
    0:00:54 Or like this.
    0:00:58 Maybe even something like this.
    0:01:01 Stand clear of the closing doors, please.
    0:01:08 What you probably don’t think about when I say workplace environment is this.
    0:01:12 [MUSIC]
    0:01:18 But if you are one of the roughly 2000 men who play in the National Football League,
    0:01:20 that’s your office.
    0:01:23 I mean, it’s business, let’s not get it wrong, it’s business.
    0:01:29 The NFL Players Association, or NFLPA, is the union that represents the players.
    0:01:35 And in 2023, they conducted their first ever employee survey about workplace
    0:01:36 conditions.
    0:01:39 I would never have thought to ask, are there rats in your locker room?
    0:01:43 And they gave letter grades to each of the league’s 32 teams.
    0:01:47 This is really about, are we giving you the inputs you need to be as productive
    0:01:49 as possible?
    0:01:53 The NFL is the richest and most successful sports league in history.
    0:01:57 Each team is worth at least $4 billion.
    0:01:59 Nobody wants to be known as the cheapskate.
    0:02:03 Before, when it was rumored you were the cheapskate, it was harder to prove.
    0:02:05 Now there’s data.
    0:02:09 And what does the data have to say?
    0:02:13 Among US employees in general, job satisfaction is higher than it’s been
    0:02:14 in decades.
    0:02:18 How satisfied are NFL players?
    0:02:22 Now, you may be saying to yourself, who cares about the workplace environment
    0:02:23 of NFL players?
    0:02:26 They make so much money, the environment shouldn’t matter.
    0:02:31 Or you may say, pro football is so different from what I do for a living,
    0:02:35 there’s no way I’m going to learn anything worthwhile from this.
    0:02:40 Well, if we have done our job in making this episode, you will.
    0:02:45 At the very least, with another NFL season in the books, you will learn which teams
    0:02:48 got the best grades and the worst.
    0:02:50 Never really heard of an F minus before.
    0:03:08 This is Freakonomics Radio, the podcast that explores the hidden side
    0:03:11 of everything with your host, Steven Dubner.
    0:03:20 [MUSIC PLAYING]
    0:03:24 Imagine that you have just graduated from college with a degree in, say,
    0:03:25 mechanical engineering.
    0:03:29 And you know exactly what kind of company you want to work for.
    0:03:34 And let’s say there are 32 such companies within a 100-mile radius
    0:03:35 of where you want to live.
    0:03:39 So which company will you end up at?
    0:03:41 To a large degree, that is up to you.
    0:03:43 You can apply wherever you’d like.
    0:03:47 And if that company thinks you are qualified and they make you an offer,
    0:03:51 you can decide whether to accept or reject the job.
    0:03:55 This is not how it works in professional sports.
    0:03:59 Imagine now that instead of studying mechanical engineering,
    0:04:01 you went to college to play football.
    0:04:04 If you are good enough to play in the National Football League,
    0:04:08 or if you’re an athlete good enough to play in any of the other major American
    0:04:12 sports leagues, you don’t get to choose which team you play for.
    0:04:16 It’s the teams that choose the players in an annual draft.
    0:04:20 Teams with the worst records the previous season typically get to pick earlier
    0:04:23 in the draft and the best teams pick later.
    0:04:28 In the NFL, most rookie contracts will bind you to that team for four years.
    0:04:34 The top ranked players may sign huge rookie contracts with millions of dollars guaranteed.
    0:04:36 But that’s just the top of the pyramid.
    0:04:40 Around 50 percent of NFL players make the league minimum.
    0:04:44 This year, that was a base salary of $840,000 for a rookie
    0:04:47 with gradual increases for each year of service.
    0:04:51 So yes, that’s a big paycheck compared to most first jobs.
    0:04:56 But the average NFL career is barely three years long.
    0:05:00 So a lot of players are out of the league before their rookie contract expires.
    0:05:04 They are replaced by someone even younger and cheaper.
    0:05:07 If you are good enough to stick around, pass that rookie contract.
    0:05:11 And if you’re lucky enough to have remained healthy, those are two big ifs.
    0:05:14 Then you become what is called an unrestricted free agent.
    0:05:18 And you can sell your services to whichever team wants you.
    0:05:23 Finally, after four years in the NFL, you have achieved the workforce freedom
    0:05:26 of a newly graduated mechanical engineer.
    0:05:33 At this point, you may be in for big money, five or 10, even $50 million a year.
    0:05:37 And how does a free agent decide which team to play for?
    0:05:43 Your agent will speak to all the interested teams, try to drive up your price
    0:05:45 and help you sort through the offers.
    0:05:48 There’s a lot to consider how the payout will be structured,
    0:05:52 what kind of incentives and bonus clauses you can get in the contract,
    0:05:56 even the occasional restrictive clause like in the recent contract,
    0:06:01 the Arizona Cardinals offered to resign their star quarterback, Kyler Murray.
    0:06:04 They wanted Murray to, here, I’ll read from the contract.
    0:06:10 They wanted him to complete at least four hours of independent study each week.
    0:06:13 In other words, they wanted to make sure he’s doing his homework,
    0:06:17 studying the playbook, watching film at night, things like that.
    0:06:22 Arizona was criticized for adding this clause and they ultimately removed it.
    0:06:26 And Murray did sign the contract, a five-year deal that could pay out more
    0:06:29 than $230 million.
    0:06:34 When players get to choose their team, they usually go with the highest dollar offer.
    0:06:37 But there are other factors to consider.
    0:06:39 How good is the team?
    0:06:41 Most players want to play for winners.
    0:06:46 How good is the coaching staff and how secure if they’re in danger of getting fired?
    0:06:48 You may be too.
    0:06:50 You might consider the weather.
    0:06:53 Are you a Miami guy or a Minnesota guy?
    0:06:59 And maybe you will also consider the workplace conditions at your new club.
    0:07:02 How good is the locker room and the weight room?
    0:07:04 What about the food?
    0:07:08 How does the team treat your family members on game day?
    0:07:11 Those are the kind of questions most of us wouldn’t think to ask.
    0:07:16 But Joseph Carl Treader, Jr. isn’t most people.
    0:07:21 When we interviewed Treader for this episode, he was president of the NFL Players Association.
    0:07:28 His tenure ended in 2024, and he was succeeded by Detroit Lions linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maven.
    0:07:31 You’ll hear from him a little later in this episode.
    0:07:34 I asked Treader to start with his college background.
    0:07:40 I went to Cornell University and studied industrial labor relations.
    0:07:44 That’s a pretty typical college and major for an NFL prospect, yes?
    0:07:45 Yeah.
    0:07:49 It’s not the normal pipeline to the pros and I think leading into my election, it probably
    0:07:57 helped substantially because there’s not many Cornell ILR grads walking around the NFL.
    0:08:01 The election, Treader mentioned, was for the union presidency.
    0:08:07 He had a long successful career in the NFL, nine seasons as an offensive lineman for the
    0:08:13 Green Bay Packers and the Cleveland Browns with around $45 million in career earnings.
    0:08:20 He retired in 2022 at age 31 and he had two years left on his term as union president.
    0:08:25 I was looking for some new projects to do, so I had a ton of time on my hands and it
    0:08:27 was like, I’m going to take a stab at this.
    0:08:33 This being the workplace survey of all current NFL players, which the union had been talking
    0:08:34 about for years.
    0:08:39 As we saw the responses start pouring in, this is a proof of concept.
    0:08:40 Yeah.
    0:08:41 I was shocked at the response rate.
    0:08:44 I don’t know how many players got the survey and how many responded.
    0:08:49 We have 2,200 active players and we had 1,300 fill out the survey, which is about 60%.
    0:08:53 As we saw the numbers start pouring in, it was like, oh man, we have to do something
    0:08:54 here.
    0:08:58 It’s going to be like report cards, you had to ask somewhat qualitative but also quantitative
    0:09:02 questions to try to figure out how to compare these franchises.
    0:09:04 Give an example or two.
    0:09:08 Rate your locker room one to five, but then also what would you change about your locker
    0:09:09 room?
    0:09:10 What’s missing in your locker room?
    0:09:15 What would be in a five rated locker room and what would be in or maybe missing from
    0:09:16 a one rated locker room?
    0:09:19 I would never have thought to ask, are there rats in your locker room?
    0:09:21 Are there physical rats in your locker room?
    0:09:24 And yet that comes out in the survey because there were.
    0:09:26 In Jacksonville, we should say.
    0:09:27 Not everywhere.
    0:09:28 Right.
    0:09:32 You have to allow the players to fill you in with what’s bothering them.
    0:09:36 There’s one team that doesn’t have outlets in their lockers where they can’t charge their
    0:09:37 devices.
    0:09:38 Who is that?
    0:09:39 Cincinnati.
    0:09:47 The survey was conducted online with guaranteed anonymity.
    0:09:52 In our business, you’re so on razor’s edge of being cut and losing your job.
    0:09:57 The idea that these owners actually think players can walk into their office and tell
    0:10:00 them like, Hey, I think you’re being cheap and you’re not spending enough money on us
    0:10:04 and there wouldn’t be any retribution is a little crazy to me.
    0:10:08 There are some players that do and a lot of it’s the star quarterbacks who are untouchable
    0:10:12 or players that have guaranteed money and feel like they’re safe and they can go in there
    0:10:16 and they can try to drive change for their teammates because they’re a little more protective
    0:10:17 than the average player.
    0:10:20 But that was one of the reasons about making it anonymous.
    0:10:27 It was allowing everybody to voice what they’ve seen without fear of retribution.
    0:10:32 The survey covered eight categories, three were about the physical facilities, the locker
    0:10:35 room, weight room and training room.
    0:10:39 That’s where a player goes for a massage or the hot tub or to get an injury treated.
    0:10:42 There was one question about nutrition.
    0:10:46 How well does each team feed and hydrate the players also travel?
    0:10:49 How comfortable are the airplane seats?
    0:10:52 How about the hotel rooms and do you have to have a roommate?
    0:10:58 The survey also asked how well the team takes care of the players families during the games.
    0:11:03 Is there, for instance, a place for your mom or maybe your wife and young kids to watch
    0:11:06 where they won’t get pelted by beers?
    0:11:12 And finally, the survey asked about the training staff and the strength staff, but interestingly,
    0:11:14 not the coaching staff.
    0:11:20 I didn’t want a category that I felt could be too tracked to wins and losses.
    0:11:23 I really wanted to stick to standard of care like, “Hey, where do you spend most of your
    0:11:24 time?
    0:11:27 The locker room, the training room, the weight room, the cafeteria, like what staff is around
    0:11:28 you most of the time?
    0:11:31 The training staff, the strength staff, how do you travel?
    0:11:32 How do they treat your families?
    0:11:36 Those are the core issues that impact their daily life.
    0:11:38 And I didn’t want it to become like, “Hey, this is a good coach because we win a bunch
    0:11:39 of games.”
    0:11:40 That’s not telling us anything.
    0:11:44 There are some coaches that have a leadership council of older players that meet once a
    0:11:47 week and then acts on those recommendations.
    0:11:50 And I think that’s what a good workplace looks like.
    0:11:53 That was something probably 15 years ago in the NFL.
    0:11:54 There wasn’t any of that.
    0:11:58 It was very much, “We’re doing this because I’m the coach and I’m the boss and I say we’re
    0:11:59 doing it.”
    0:12:05 And now I think more and more of the younger coaches are coming in, being much more receptive
    0:12:08 to hearing feedback and acting on that feedback.
    0:12:12 Trader says the players union had two primary goals in running the survey and giving each
    0:12:14 team letter grades.
    0:12:18 The first was to give players information that could help them decide where to work if they
    0:12:20 ever got that choice.
    0:12:25 The second goal was to help raise the standards across each club by bringing problems out
    0:12:26 into the open.
    0:12:29 That’s why the union published the results.
    0:12:33 We will put the link in our show notes if you want to take a look and why they graded
    0:12:40 each club in all eight categories because in the NFL, turnabout is fair play.
    0:12:41 We’re always measured.
    0:12:43 We’re always graded.
    0:12:45 They can use letter grades, number grades.
    0:12:51 You play 60 plays and they’re like, “All right, you did your job on 80% of plays.”
    0:12:53 That is Jalen Reeves-Maban.
    0:12:58 He is a linebacker with the Detroit Lions and president of the NFL Players Association.
    0:13:03 We’re judged at every step and I don’t think there’s ever really been a time where accountability
    0:13:10 has gone to the teams or the ownership of like, “Hey, are you being excellent here?
    0:13:12 Like, where’s your grade in this area?”
    0:13:15 Reeves-Maban has been in the league since 2017.
    0:13:20 He started his career with Detroit, then went to Houston for one season and when we spoke
    0:13:27 with him, he was back with Detroit on a one-year contract with a base salary of $1.25 million.
    0:13:34 He played well and last year he signed a two-year extension with the Lions for $7.5 million.
    0:13:36 What does Detroit get in return for that salary?
    0:13:42 It’s the combination of the mental aspect where every week I have to learn a new opponent,
    0:13:46 I have to learn what they’re trying to do to attack me, but I also have this physical
    0:13:49 aspect of I’m playing a violent game.
    0:13:53 If I’m not violent, I’m probably going to get hurt, but I can’t be scared.
    0:13:56 I can’t be scared to get hurt because then that’s going to show in your performance.
    0:14:02 So you kind of got to have a recklessness in the sense or just a willingness to take
    0:14:03 that pain.
    0:14:08 That combined with the physical, the conditioning, the stamina, the energy, the persistence you
    0:14:10 have to have, it’s a lot.
    0:14:14 So I think it’s extremely hard, but I know that in all walks of life, people are working
    0:14:15 extremely hard.
    0:14:20 I have to add, too, just the media scrutiny and the fact that you’re basically on public
    0:14:22 display all the time.
    0:14:28 I don’t think the average person knows how heavy that feels on your shoulders.
    0:14:33 You can basically determine a mood for a whole city or a whole state based off what you did
    0:14:35 on Sunday in a three-hour period.
    0:14:38 So there’s a lot that comes with it.
    0:14:41 The NFL is a commercial juggernaut.
    0:14:46 If you look at Variety’s list of the top 25 primetime TV broadcasts from last year,
    0:14:50 you’ll see that 18 of those 25 were NFL games.
    0:14:55 The exceptions were the Oscars, the Summer Olympics, the Grammys, the Presidential Debate,
    0:14:58 the World Series, and a college football semifinal.
    0:15:01 I mean, there’s so much money involved.
    0:15:06 And with so much money, the league has TV deals worth more than $100 billion over roughly
    0:15:07 a decade.
    0:15:11 Reeves Maven says the survey findings were pretty surprising.
    0:15:17 Well, there was reports of teams having a rat infestation in the locker room.
    0:15:21 There’s guys who don’t get fed after practices.
    0:15:23 The team was charging them for food.
    0:15:28 I know sometimes these things might seem like, oh, you got enough money to pay for it, but
    0:15:31 we are operating at the highest level possible.
    0:15:36 They demand excellence from us, and I think that we should be demanding excellence from
    0:15:37 the teams.
    0:15:42 Jaycee Tredder was also surprised to learn that some players were being charged for food
    0:15:44 at team facilities.
    0:15:48 That was one where I had to reach out to several people to make sure I was hearing it correctly
    0:15:52 of, wait, I just want to make sure for the fourth time, is this true?
    0:15:58 Because that is so preposterous, and a job where what you fuel your body with is so important
    0:16:02 to almost push them out of the building, to push them to fast food, to push them to poor
    0:16:06 nutrition is such like a backwards way of looking at our industry.
    0:16:07 It was crazy.
    0:16:09 And why do you think those teams do it?
    0:16:11 Is it just, it’s the way it was always done?
    0:16:13 Are they really trying to save money?
    0:16:14 I don’t know.
    0:16:15 It was one team.
    0:16:18 It was the Arizona Cardinals who made people pay.
    0:16:22 There are three other teams that didn’t provide it, and I don’t think the cost they were charging
    0:16:27 would pay for the meals anyways is almost like the control factor of it of, hey, just
    0:16:28 know your place.
    0:16:32 Can you talk about what you mean with that know your place sentiment?
    0:16:38 Because I think the public sees football players as superstars, not as employees coming into
    0:16:42 a workplace with bosses and needing to know their place.
    0:16:43 Yeah.
    0:16:46 From a union perspective, we’re negotiating for the same things that any union is, better
    0:16:53 wages, better benefits, better working conditions, but there is a level of control that’s always
    0:16:59 being fought after and the league, there’s a piece of them that just wants to make sure
    0:17:03 that we know that they have control of us.
    0:17:09 From individual teams, like you said, we are just workers and some coaches and some bosses
    0:17:15 are better at working with their employees about different changes that need to be made,
    0:17:20 whether it’s scheduling, whether it’s technique, whether it’s how they operate.
    0:17:25 And some aren’t good, I sometimes get frustrated when we’re defined too much as just players
    0:17:29 because I think it takes us away out of the real world and puts us into football world
    0:17:31 and we are workers and we’re fighting for the same things.
    0:17:36 And I think that’s one of our struggles as a union because of our short lifespan where
    0:17:44 somebody comes into a union job and they can make sacrifices and bargain a certain way because
    0:17:47 they have the opportunity to be in that job for 30, 40 years.
    0:17:50 So sacrificing for today, they’re going to see the fruits of that labor and that’s not
    0:17:51 always true for us.
    0:17:56 So the sacrifices one group makes, they’re probably never seeing the benefits of those
    0:17:57 sacrifices.
    0:18:01 But when it comes to the negotiating, there is a pie out there and I think your job as
    0:18:05 an individual or as a union is to get the biggest share if possible.
    0:18:09 I have to say, you can really sound like an old fashioned union agitator when you need
    0:18:12 to.
    0:18:16 When you look at the overall results of your survey, especially the team rankings, the teams
    0:18:24 that come in ranked high and the teams that come in ranked low, among the top ranked teams,
    0:18:25 what do they have in common?
    0:18:28 Whether it’s ownership, whether it’s an attitude.
    0:18:31 The top three teams all have brand new facilities.
    0:18:37 When we talk about facilities, I think sometimes the fans don’t understand how different franchises
    0:18:38 work.
    0:18:39 So everybody thinks of their stadiums.
    0:18:43 So like the Rams and the Chargers were poorly ranked and you heard a lot of questions of
    0:18:46 like, whoa, SoFi stadiums brand new, they put billions of dollars into it.
    0:18:47 How is it poorly ranked?
    0:18:49 That’s not where players spend their days.
    0:18:51 That’s where they play for one day a week.
    0:18:54 But their facilities are usually located elsewhere.
    0:18:56 So some of that is just random when the survey is done.
    0:18:59 So in 10 years, those facilities will be getting a little radion.
    0:19:02 Whoever else has new facilities, they’ll probably rank a little bit higher because of that.
    0:19:03 Yeah.
    0:19:04 If teams do get new facilities, right?
    0:19:10 Like some of these teams have had old facilities forever.
    0:19:14 So who are the top three teams in the players union survey?
    0:19:15 Not their teams.
    0:19:19 Our Minnesota was number one, Miami was number two and Las Vegas was number three.
    0:19:24 The owners of the Minnesota Vikings and the Miami Dolphins both made their money in real
    0:19:25 estate development.
    0:19:29 So it probably shouldn’t surprise us that they brought their real estate shops to their
    0:19:31 football investments.
    0:19:37 The big surprise, to me at least, is that some of the best teams in football rank toward
    0:19:38 the bottom.
    0:19:42 If you look at the winners of the past six Super Bowls, the New England Patriots, the
    0:19:47 LA Rams, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Kansas City Chiefs who won it three times,
    0:19:52 none of them ranked higher than 24th out of 32 teams in 2023.
    0:19:58 I asked JC Tredder if he was surprised to see so many top performing teams at the bottom
    0:19:59 of his list.
    0:20:00 No.
    0:20:01 And that’s the thing.
    0:20:05 Like having a star quarterback like Patrick Mahomes is the ultimate deodorant.
    0:20:10 Whether it’s telling around them or facilities or coaching, he’s going to make everybody
    0:20:13 look good because he is that freaking good as a quarterback.
    0:20:17 But that doesn’t mean the offerings shouldn’t be up to snuff.
    0:20:22 It shouldn’t be, hey, come here to play with Patrick Mahomes and potentially win a Super
    0:20:26 Bowl, but also the facilities are going to be old and dilapidated and you have to deal
    0:20:27 with that.
    0:20:28 That shouldn’t be the trade-off.
    0:20:29 Just pay for better facilities.
    0:20:34 If you’re making so much money, the idea of making it a choice of one or the other when
    0:20:37 you could just provide both doesn’t make much sense to me.
    0:20:40 What do the teams at the bottom have in common?
    0:20:44 Is it something as simple as they typically have older practice facilities?
    0:20:49 We asked the players, do they think their owner is willing to invest money to make the
    0:20:50 facilities better?
    0:20:55 And I think the teams at the bottom, that number tracked being down there.
    0:21:00 You don’t have to knock down walls, but are you willing to invest the money necessary
    0:21:04 to make the changes necessary to fix the issues you have?
    0:21:09 Like for Cincinnati, to rewire the locker room to make sure there’s outlets there is
    0:21:11 not that costly.
    0:21:17 For Washington, there was complaints that there’s poor drainage in the showers.
    0:21:24 So the guys are literally standing in the water that’s been run off from the guy next
    0:21:28 to him who’s showering the dirt and the blood and the sweat.
    0:21:31 These aren’t knock the walls down and build a new facility.
    0:21:35 Let’s get a plumber in there and fix it.
    0:21:40 The Washington commanders with their backed up showers ranked dead last in the NFL report
    0:21:41 card.
    0:21:43 But that wasn’t their biggest problem.
    0:21:48 The team was plagued with a variety of scandals concerning workplace harassment and financial
    0:21:49 impropriety.
    0:21:56 Finally, the wildly unpopular owner, Dan Snyder, gave in to pressure from the league and agreed
    0:21:57 to sell the team.
    0:22:02 This season, with new owners and a new head coach and general manager, the commanders
    0:22:06 had a remarkable turnaround, making the NFC championship game for the first time since
    0:22:08 1991.
    0:22:14 Washington’s problems during the Snyder era got a lot of press, but at most clubs, routine
    0:22:17 problems don’t get much coverage.
    0:22:18 And J.C.
    0:22:22 Tredder says that when players change teams, they often don’t have much information until
    0:22:25 they show up at their new workplace.
    0:22:29 And when they’re making these decisions about where they’re going to spend potentially the
    0:22:32 rest of their career, they should know what they’re getting into.
    0:22:38 I talked to a lot of guys as we did the survey and I said, “Hey, your team’s one of the worst
    0:22:39 graded teams.
    0:22:41 Did you know that before you signed?”
    0:22:42 And they’re like, “No.”
    0:22:44 And I got here and now I feel trapped.
    0:22:49 The quality of care is poor and the facilities are poor and I’m stuck here.
    0:22:53 So even if I’m making $8, $10, $15 million a year and the facilities are poor, it’s enough
    0:22:55 to have buyers remorse, you’re saying?
    0:22:56 Yeah.
    0:22:58 And again, most of our guys aren’t making that.
    0:23:00 So you start looking for differentiators.
    0:23:04 And those guys, the minimum seller guys are the lunch pail hard hat guys of your team,
    0:23:10 the special teams guys, the offensive linemen, the backups that make the team work.
    0:23:14 Those guys are looking at and saying, “Hold on, I’m going to get the same dollar amount
    0:23:15 from every team.”
    0:23:17 What are the other variables I can look at?
    0:23:21 And before it was, what do I think of the area, like the city, like how close it is to
    0:23:22 my family.
    0:23:26 And now it’s like, “Hold on, I’m not going to go to a team that has weight room floors
    0:23:28 peeling up and charges me for dinner.
    0:23:32 I’m going to go someplace else.”
    0:23:36 So is this NFL team report card working?
    0:23:42 Coming up, we’ll hear from an agent, an economist, and later the people who run the teams.
    0:23:43 I’m Stephen Dubner.
    0:23:47 I love making Freakonomics Radio and I love that you’re listening to him.
    0:23:48 We will be right back.
    0:24:04 Jim Eibler has worked for more than 25 years as an agent for NFL players, although he isn’t
    0:24:06 an agent technically.
    0:24:09 Technically we are called certified contract advisors.
    0:24:15 Eibler’s job, as the name implies, is to advise players on their contracts.
    0:24:20 For players coming into the NFL from college via the draft, remember they don’t choose
    0:24:26 where they’ll play and their salary is predetermined by how high they were picked in the draft.
    0:24:30 We’re also accustomed to the draft and that’s how talent is dispersed throughout the league.
    0:24:34 But when you think about it in more of a macro level, it’s a pretty incredible process.
    0:24:40 I mean, you’re told as a recent person coming out of college where you’re going to work.
    0:24:44 I know when I graduated law school, if someone had called me up and said, “You’ve just been
    0:24:48 drafted by a law firm in Green Bay, Wisconsin,” and that’s where you’re going to go, I would
    0:24:50 have said, “You want a bet?”
    0:24:55 But obviously these guys go, most of them very happily, to whatever team drafts them.
    0:25:00 The process though really is we’re trying to achieve generational wealth for our clients
    0:25:04 and I know it’s a buzzword and a cliche, but it’s really true.
    0:25:08 The goal needs to be that when the player is done playing in the NFL, whether they play
    0:25:12 four years or 14 years, that they can retire with enough money in the bank so they can
    0:25:16 do whatever it is they want to do with the rest of their life because it’s a passion,
    0:25:18 not because they need the paycheck.
    0:25:23 And so unless you’re a, I’m going to call it a top 20 or 25 pick, you’re really not getting
    0:25:26 that generational wealth from your first contract.
    0:25:30 So we’re really all in this game to help our clients achieve a second contract and if they’re
    0:25:33 really blessed, maybe a third and a fourth contract.
    0:25:36 If you can get that bite at the apple where you’ve performed well enough, where there’s
    0:25:40 multiple teams interested in you, that’s where the leverage maybe flips and it’s on
    0:25:42 the player’s side.
    0:25:46 It doesn’t happen to a lot of guys and I’m sure you’ve heard the average career span
    0:25:49 of an NFL player is 3.3 years.
    0:25:53 And it’s probably not a total coincidence that that’s just before the unrestricted free
    0:25:54 agency kicks in.
    0:25:55 Do the math.
    0:25:59 If you can’t become unrestricted until four years and the average player is 3.3 years,
    0:26:01 that means the average player is never getting that bite at the apple.
    0:26:06 Okay, let’s say you represent a player who has just become a free agent and you do your
    0:26:10 thing and you get offers from three teams.
    0:26:15 What are the primary factors that will go into the decision of where your client will
    0:26:22 want to go and I especially want to know if workplace conditions are at all a major factor.
    0:26:26 Certainly compensation, anybody that says that’s not number one is probably lying.
    0:26:31 Even if the player has made that sort of money over the course of his career to achieve that
    0:26:36 generational wealth, the compensation is still going to be the primary factor.
    0:26:41 And then the team itself, the talent that the player is surrounded with, teammate-wise,
    0:26:45 the coaching staff, whether or not the team has anticipated to be a playoff, Super Bowl
    0:26:49 team, these are all things that I would say are a little bit more important to players
    0:26:51 than the workplace conditions.
    0:26:54 But something that players are talking about, but I wouldn’t put it in the top few factors
    0:26:57 of making free agent decisions.
    0:27:02 Another thing you need to realize about unrestricted free agency, this happens really fast.
    0:27:06 In terms of player has to make a life-altering decision in five minutes because if the player
    0:27:10 is not ready to commit, that team is going to go on to the next guy on their list at
    0:27:11 that position.
    0:27:15 And when you have to make those quick decisions, the size of the locker room is really not
    0:27:16 coming up.
    0:27:20 One of the factors that a player and agent will absolutely consider is whether or not
    0:27:24 there’s a state tax that’s levied against the player with the team that he is signing
    0:27:29 with and eight of the 32 NFL teams play in states where there is no state tax and that
    0:27:34 could be a pretty big difference monetarily if you’re talking about 0% taken out as opposed
    0:27:38 to 8, 9, 10, 11% in some of the higher states.
    0:27:43 List for me the no-tax places, I guess it’s all the teams in Texas and Florida.
    0:27:47 The two teams in Texas, it’s the three teams in Florida, it’s Vegas, it’s Seattle and
    0:27:49 it’s Tennessee.
    0:27:55 So it sounds like you put a lot less stock into the impact of the survey than someone
    0:27:56 like J.C.
    0:28:01 So I’m trying to get a read on how much this survey really matters in the end.
    0:28:02 What do you think?
    0:28:08 I think it was a great idea for him to commission this survey and get responses from players.
    0:28:11 He should be holding teams feet to the fire because I can guarantee you there are some
    0:28:16 owners that are upset from what I’ve read Arthur Blank down in Atlanta was disappointed
    0:28:21 that his team ranked where it did and these guys are competitive regardless of whether
    0:28:23 or not it’s really having an impact in free agent decisions.
    0:28:28 It doesn’t mean that the survey is not going to affect change in a lot of these facilities
    0:28:32 with these team owners because if they perceive that it could be a problem in free agency,
    0:28:34 that’s really the most important thing.
    0:28:40 So the Washington commanders got an F or lower, they actually got an F minus in a few categories
    0:28:47 in 1, 2, 3, 4 of the categories and then a couple of D’s, C and an A plus in strength
    0:28:52 coaches so the players loved the strength coaches but in terms of the things the team
    0:29:00 does otherwise, locker room, F minus, team travel, F minus, treatment of families, F.
    0:29:05 Can you talk about why those things matter so much to a player that they’re going to
    0:29:07 give their own team an F minus?
    0:29:12 For sure and I’ve never really heard of an F minus before.
    0:29:16 But it is important and certainly I think as a player ages throughout his career it
    0:29:21 becomes more important because presumably they have a wife, they have children and how
    0:29:24 the family is treated on game day for instance is a big deal.
    0:29:29 I remember about 15 years ago speaking to the front office of the Jets and they were
    0:29:33 asking well what could we do better and we brought up the concept of a family room on
    0:29:37 game day and they didn’t even understand what we were saying and we said hey listen you
    0:29:42 have players whose wives are coming with little kids and they’re sitting in the stands and
    0:29:45 the beer is flowing and there’s things that are said.
    0:29:51 The concept of having a daycare in an NFL stadium not too long ago was unheard of.
    0:29:54 Now I think it’s close to half maybe half them.
    0:30:00 Same thing with a family room where the players, families can go and shelter from bad weather,
    0:30:02 shelter from crazed fans.
    0:30:09 Are you surprised that so many, I mean these are billion dollar franchises and they could
    0:30:14 pretty easily fix some of these problems if they cared with a little bit of money.
    0:30:18 Like the family room is going to cost some money plainly but not a ton.
    0:30:22 Are you surprised that there’s this sort of penny-wise, pound foolish approach?
    0:30:24 Yes, I’m surprised.
    0:30:27 These are multi-billion dollar organizations.
    0:30:32 Their most important asset of course is the talent that they’re putting out on the field.
    0:30:38 So to read some of the things in the survey, uneven floors in the weight room where players
    0:30:43 feel afraid walking around, slippery floors in the pool area where players are falling
    0:30:48 when you invest so much in your assets to have a workplace injury potentially happen,
    0:30:51 it would not be a good look and it is very surprising.
    0:30:57 But on the other hand, some of these teams are run by old school owners.
    0:31:01 You look at some of the teams that are low on the list, I don’t think it’s an accident
    0:31:05 that the owners made their money from the team.
    0:31:07 They didn’t come from a different industry.
    0:31:11 They came from where their grandfathers paid $500 and a bottle of whiskey for the team
    0:31:19 back in 1942 and they are kind of mired in old school ways or maybe a little bit slow
    0:31:24 to come around and no matter how much the front office wants to be progressive and implore
    0:31:33 them to change certain things, it still starts at the top and the owner has final say.
    0:31:39 One problem for family-run firms is it can be hard to innovate.
    0:31:42 How do you think outside the box when you’ve never left the box?
    0:31:44 That is Betsy Stevenson.
    0:31:52 I am an economist and professor at the University of Michigan and I study labor markets.
    0:31:53 Are you a football fan, Betsy?
    0:31:57 I teach at the University of Michigan so I have to just plead the fifth and refuse to
    0:31:59 answer this question.
    0:32:01 So that’s a big fat no plainly.
    0:32:03 Yeah, it’s really awkward.
    0:32:07 Stevenson may not know football, but she does know labor economics.
    0:32:14 I served as the chief economist at the Department of Labor and I served as a member of the Council
    0:32:19 of Economic Advisers giving advice to President Obama.
    0:32:24 Can I have an example of some labor economics advice you may have given?
    0:32:29 One big thing we talked a lot about was whether we should require forms of compensation outside
    0:32:30 of wages.
    0:32:34 Like should people be required to get paid sick days?
    0:32:40 Should we require that people get paid maternity or paternity leave?
    0:32:45 What makes a good job and what’s the role of government in shaping the conditions?
    0:32:47 So what makes a good job?
    0:32:48 That’s an easy answer, yeah?
    0:32:56 Yeah, it’s hard because we all have different preferences and I think the hope of economists
    0:33:01 who believe in market forces is everybody wants different things and they’ll just be
    0:33:09 able to sort around the labor market till they find the thing that works for them.
    0:33:14 So when a company does provide what economists like Stevenson call compensation outside of
    0:33:18 wages, why do they provide that?
    0:33:21 Economists have come up with two buckets of reasons.
    0:33:25 So the first bucket is the benefits might be a compliment to hard work.
    0:33:30 We actually see higher productivity because it induces more effort from workers.
    0:33:36 The second bucket is that employees might value the benefits more than it costs the
    0:33:39 employer to provide those benefits.
    0:33:43 So let’s start with the first bucket, compliment to hard work.
    0:33:49 That’s why every company going back to the 50s that has office workers has coffee in
    0:33:51 the break room, right?
    0:33:54 You got to caffeinate your workers to get them to work hard.
    0:34:00 The tech sector went a little crazy with this like, “Hey, let’s have ping-pong tables.”
    0:34:04 But it really was the same idea, “Well, if you’re socializing at work, you’ll have less
    0:34:06 of a reason to leave.”
    0:34:10 One of the more extreme examples was some of the tech companies started providing a benefit
    0:34:13 which is, “We will pay for you to freeze your eggs.”
    0:34:19 Oh no, we have these hard-working female employees wringing their hands in their early 30s thinking
    0:34:20 they better have a baby.
    0:34:23 I know what we’ll do, we’ll pay to freeze their eggs and then they’ll be able to keep
    0:34:25 working hard for a few more years.
    0:34:29 Betsy, I know you took a look at the NFL Players Survey.
    0:34:34 How do you think about their non-wage compensation in terms of this first bucket?
    0:34:38 Yeah, it’s great because you can actually see the categories here which are clearly
    0:34:40 a compliment to high productivity.
    0:34:41 Nutrition.
    0:34:46 They’re like, “What you eat is going to affect how you play, so we’re going to feed you.”
    0:34:50 The weight room, how you train up is going to affect how you play.
    0:34:52 We’re going to give you a weight room.
    0:34:57 This is really about, “Are we giving you the inputs you need to be as productive as possible?”
    0:35:01 When we think about things like the treatment of families.
    0:35:03 That’s bucket two, I assume.
    0:35:07 Yeah, this is something that’s going to have a cost to them, but the question is what’s
    0:35:17 the value to the person receiving it, and that value might be quite high.
    0:35:24 My wife, my mom, my sister, my dad, they didn’t come to games to tailgate and booze it up and
    0:35:26 cheer for the Cleveland Browns.
    0:35:30 They came to the game to make sure I walked off the field at the end.
    0:35:35 That again is JC Tredder, former president of the NFL Players Union.
    0:35:37 I understand the guys on the field are making a lot of money.
    0:35:40 Even the guys making minimum salary are making a lot of money.
    0:35:45 The risk they are taking, though, is substantial, and the damage they are receiving is substantial,
    0:35:53 and parents and kids and wives and siblings are there worried about their well-being.
    0:35:59 The idea that the guys out there making the owner hundreds of millions to billions of
    0:36:04 dollars for what they’re doing on the field, well taking all of the risk physically, the
    0:36:09 idea that their wife and newborn baby are sitting on the grimy floor of a public restroom
    0:36:12 breastfeeding is just preposterous to me.
    0:36:16 18 of the teams offer family rooms, 14 don’t, and the teams that don’t, like, where is
    0:36:18 that wife supposed to go?
    0:36:20 What’s your prediction for, let’s say, two years from now?
    0:36:22 How many of those 14 will offer it?
    0:36:25 We’ve heard from some teams being like, “Hey, you know, we have an older stadium.
    0:36:26 There’s no room for it.”
    0:36:30 But everybody has suites, you know, like, in the end, it comes down to a choice.
    0:36:34 So how many games did your family attend when you were playing for Cleveland?
    0:36:40 Yeah, they would be at almost every home game, and in the end, once I got my third contract,
    0:36:44 me and two other teammates went in on a suite, like, we bought our own suite.
    0:36:49 We all had young kids from two and under, and we didn’t want them out in the cold.
    0:36:52 So we said, like, “We’ll pay the money and buy a suite.”
    0:36:54 How much did you have to pay?
    0:36:55 $150,000.
    0:36:56 Okay.
    0:37:00 Split by three players with, let’s call it, eight home games a season.
    0:37:04 So a little over $6,000 a game, you’re paying out of pocket.
    0:37:06 I’ll trust your math.
    0:37:10 Looks like a lot of teams are doing a really bad job.
    0:37:13 I mean, I saw a lot of Fs.
    0:37:16 That, again, is the economist Betsy Stevenson.
    0:37:21 Like, maybe they’re not getting the great inflation that our university students get
    0:37:24 these days, but a lot of Fs.
    0:37:30 And I think what that says is this is a job where there’s a lot of cash thrown at these
    0:37:33 players and they don’t think about anything else.
    0:37:38 Betsy, are you surprised that firms that are paying their key employees a relatively
    0:37:44 very high salary, that at least some of them on some dimensions are apparently so cheap
    0:37:47 when it comes to perks and benefits?
    0:37:55 I am surprised that any team is messing up when it comes to perks and benefits that would
    0:37:58 actually increase the productivity of the players.
    0:38:06 I think that’s a clear mistake because those perks and benefits are probably quite cheap
    0:38:12 compared to not just pay, but compared to the benefits they yield on the playing field.
    0:38:15 Like one more victory would be worth quite a bit of money.
    0:38:16 One more victory is worth a lot of money, right?
    0:38:21 You could probably do a full renovation of your weight room.
    0:38:25 Do you think the issue here is that they’re not connecting it necessarily or not believing
    0:38:29 the connection to productivity because otherwise it’s hard for me to understand why they would
    0:38:31 cheap out?
    0:38:38 I’m pausing only because sometimes people do stupid things, Stephen.
    0:38:44 So I think that’s one answer is they’re just being dumb.
    0:38:51 Now another answer is what’s necessary in the weight room or the training room or nutrition
    0:38:57 in order to get the best out of your players on the field is being given, but players are
    0:39:04 looking for little aspects of that that don’t actually have any impact on their productivity.
    0:39:08 Maybe they want a brighter, sunnier room.
    0:39:10 It can be hard to measure these things.
    0:39:14 Maybe if you had the brighter, sunnier room, they’d work harder in training and if they
    0:39:16 worked harder in training, they’d do better on the playing field.
    0:39:21 So you should figure out how to make it brighter or sunnier.
    0:39:26 I painted little poppies on the wall in my gym and I swear I pellet on faster because
    0:39:28 I love my field of poppies.
    0:39:32 Can I just say if this economist thing doesn’t work out for you, maybe NFL training room
    0:39:35 decorator would be a lovely second career.
    0:39:41 That would be fun, yeah.
    0:39:46 Are NFL team owners and bosses really just doing stupid things?
    0:39:48 We’ll find out after the break.
    0:39:53 If you like this episode of Freakonomics Radio, there are three things you can do.
    0:39:56 Number one, listen every week.
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    0:39:58 You should be too.
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    0:40:12 We’ll be right back.
    0:40:29 So according to a recent survey conducted by the NFL Players Union, many pro football
    0:40:32 teams are not such great places to work.
    0:40:38 We reached out to all 32 teams asking for an interview with their owner or president.
    0:40:44 The line never responded, 21 declined with one communications director asking why we
    0:40:49 thought he would ever let us speak with his boss about this topic.
    0:40:52 In the end, two teams did agree to speak.
    0:40:57 Not surprisingly, they were the top two teams in the player survey.
    0:41:01 This is Mark Wilf, owner, president of the Minnesota Vikings.
    0:41:06 So Mark, congratulations on acing the NFL PA’s reporter card.
    0:41:09 I’m just curious how much did that matter to you?
    0:41:11 Well, it matters a lot.
    0:41:17 I mean, from day one of our ownership, 2005, it’s our highest goal to make our organization
    0:41:20 a world-class organization.
    0:41:24 And of course, that’s winning Super Bowls, which is paramount, but facilities, staff
    0:41:26 and community involvement as well.
    0:41:29 So here’s a choice for you, Mark.
    0:41:35 You can keep an A grade, the number one ranking on this report card for, let’s say, 10 years,
    0:41:37 not win a Super Bowl.
    0:41:38 Would that be worth it?
    0:41:40 I mean, maybe winning isn’t everything.
    0:41:44 Maybe treating people well is, in the long run, more important.
    0:41:49 Well, I strongly believe that culture in a building is critical, and I think it’s critical
    0:41:51 to building championships.
    0:41:55 So I want to be greedy and say we want both.
    0:41:56 Okay.
    0:42:00 And let’s hear from the team that came in second.
    0:42:06 Tom Garfinkel, vice chairman, CEO and president, Miami Dolphins and Hard Rock Stadium.
    0:42:11 Garfinkel is the top lieutenant to Stephen Ross, the real estate developer who is majority
    0:42:13 owner of the Dolphins.
    0:42:17 Steve is very focused on being best in class and being willing to invest in being best
    0:42:18 in class.
    0:42:22 So congratulations on doing so well on this NFL team report card.
    0:42:26 What was your first response when you saw your grades?
    0:42:29 Well, my first reaction was, I don’t like being second.
    0:42:30 So we’re going to fix the family area.
    0:42:36 I could promise you that we will have the best family area in football next year.
    0:42:42 The Dolphins got an A or A plus in every one of the eight categories except for the treatment
    0:42:43 of families.
    0:42:47 That grade was a C plus with some players saying they didn’t get enough passes to the
    0:42:49 post game area.
    0:42:52 But otherwise, great reviews.
    0:42:59 Not coincidentally, the Dolphins recently opened a new $135 million practice facility.
    0:43:05 Long before they broke ground, Garfinkel says he and Ross toured a bunch of other football
    0:43:11 facilities, including college facilities, which tend to be extra deluxe since colleges
    0:43:14 can’t use actual money to recruit players.
    0:43:19 One of the things that really struck us was at Clemson University, the locker room was
    0:43:22 really at the center of the facility.
    0:43:26 From a layout standpoint, we really thought that’s the right idea.
    0:43:28 We want this to be player-centric.
    0:43:31 We want the players to be at the heart of everything we do here.
    0:43:35 So to put the locker room at the center of the activity was really paramount.
    0:43:40 Then designing around that literally sat down with the architect with a pen and pencil and
    0:43:45 drew out where the different functions would be adjacent to the locker room for players
    0:43:50 so that they could easily and quickly get to all the different areas that they needed
    0:43:51 to.
    0:43:54 So during the course of the day, players are going from where to where to where.
    0:43:56 So it could be the meal room, the cafeteria.
    0:43:59 It could be the team meeting rooms, which are where they spend a lot of time.
    0:44:04 There’s everything from the sauna and steam room to the cold and the hot plunge and the
    0:44:05 underwater treadmill.
    0:44:08 And then the training rooms next to that where the doctors and the therapists are.
    0:44:11 And then next to that is the weight room.
    0:44:12 Is the locker room kind of where you come in?
    0:44:14 You drop your stuff.
    0:44:18 You get ready to do your day and then are you cycling back through the locker room during
    0:44:21 the day because in part that’s where your stuff is?
    0:44:22 Yes.
    0:44:24 I think the locker room is really home base for them.
    0:44:26 There’s an area for them to charge their phone.
    0:44:28 There’s a comfortable seat.
    0:44:31 It’s not a locker, you know, talking to Dan Marino and those guys.
    0:44:32 They literally had a nail.
    0:44:34 They used to hang their helmet on.
    0:44:37 These are very bespoke custom environments.
    0:44:43 We try to design the environment to be almost more four seasons like without the mahogany.
    0:44:46 I think you’ll find that the dolphin’s logos are subtle.
    0:44:50 The only aqua you see in the locker room is the name plate above the locker.
    0:44:53 Is that a test admission that people get sick of aqua?
    0:44:54 Because I would make that argument.
    0:44:59 I think you might get sick of whatever the color is if it’s all you see everywhere, right?
    0:45:07 So we did a rough analysis with the NFLPA report card, the grades versus win/loss records,
    0:45:08 basically.
    0:45:10 And it turns out there’s very little correlation.
    0:45:12 In fact, it might be a little bit negative.
    0:45:18 A lot of teams that do really well on the report card have not had great seasons lately.
    0:45:20 I haven’t won a Super Bowl in a long time.
    0:45:25 Dolphins haven’t won a Super Bowl in a long time, whereas a lot of the teams who’ve won
    0:45:28 Super Bowls lately rank really low.
    0:45:29 That surprised me.
    0:45:32 I’m curious what you make of that back of the envelope correlation.
    0:45:36 Well, I would say is that causation or correlation?
    0:45:38 This is the first year that survey has been conducted.
    0:45:42 To my knowledge, if you’re winning over a long period of time, maybe you don’t feel
    0:45:46 the need to put the resources in, and if you’re not winning, you feel the need to create some
    0:45:47 competitive advantage.
    0:45:51 So I’m not sure maybe over 10 years or something that’ll play itself out.
    0:45:54 I’m not sure it’s relevant in the short term.
    0:45:58 For a lot of reasons, including especially the pandemic, there’s been a realignment of
    0:46:02 the relationship between firms and their employees.
    0:46:04 The pendulum kind of swings.
    0:46:07 It’ll go really strong one side, then it’ll come back.
    0:46:13 I’m just curious what the last several years, including the pandemic, has taught you about
    0:46:17 what it means to be an employer in the modern era.
    0:46:20 Well, I certainly think employees are more empowered than in the past.
    0:46:23 Their voice matters more.
    0:46:24 It’s really about listening.
    0:46:30 There’s a tradition in football where a lot of things in the NFL are done the same way
    0:46:35 across teams in terms of how schedules are set, how coaching is applied, how scouting
    0:46:36 processes work.
    0:46:40 And one of the things I love about Mike, even in the interview process, was he really has
    0:46:41 an innovative mind.
    0:46:44 He really wants to do things differently.
    0:46:47 Garfinkel is talking about Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins’ head coach.
    0:46:52 And one of those things is that players are really different today than they were even
    0:46:54 five years ago.
    0:46:56 They want to understand the why of things.
    0:47:00 And instead of just saying, shut up and get in line and do what I tell you to do, Mike
    0:47:04 will sit down with a player and say, well, listen, wide receiver, here’s why I need you
    0:47:06 to block corners and safeties in the run game.
    0:47:08 Well, I get paid to catch touchdowns.
    0:47:09 Okay.
    0:47:12 So then I’ll show them the film and say, okay, here’s a three yard run and where the wide
    0:47:14 receiver didn’t block the corner of safety.
    0:47:19 Here’s the wide receiver blocking the corner of safety and here’s a 35 yard explosive run.
    0:47:21 But watch what happens in the next play.
    0:47:23 Now the defense moves up into the box.
    0:47:25 Now you can run past them and score a touchdown.
    0:47:27 So you see how it’s good for you.
    0:47:30 So he explains it to them and they’re like, oh, okay, coach, you know, I was down in the
    0:47:36 weight room today and the energy, the positive energy, the camaraderie, the excitement is
    0:47:38 palpable.
    0:47:43 I was at the Miami Dolphins training facilities last year and it’s pretty state of the art.
    0:47:44 That is Jason Kelsey.
    0:47:49 When we spoke with him in 2023, Kelsey was a longtime member of the Philadelphia Eagles.
    0:47:53 He played center, the anchor of the offensive line, and he was considered one of the best
    0:47:56 players that position in years.
    0:48:00 In March of last year, Kelsey announced his retirement.
    0:48:04 He’s also the brother of Travis Kelsey, who plays tight end for the Kansas City Chiefs
    0:48:09 and who may wind up being the best player at his position in history.
    0:48:14 The brothers played against each other in the 2023 Super Bowl, the Kelsey Bowl, some people
    0:48:15 called it.
    0:48:17 Travis’s Chiefs won.
    0:48:21 Since we spoke with Jason Kelsey for this episode, the brother’s public profile has
    0:48:22 only increased.
    0:48:28 They signed a huge podcast deal, they appear in what seems to be pretty much every commercial
    0:48:35 you see on TV, and Travis continued his very public romance with Taylor Swift.
    0:48:41 And the Chiefs won another Super Bowl and are going for their third in a row this week.
    0:48:44 Once again, they’re playing the Eagles.
    0:48:48 Back then, I asked Jason about his Super Bowl experiences.
    0:48:53 He was a key part of the Eagles team that won Super Bowl 52 in 2018, and then there
    0:48:57 was his second one against the Chiefs a few years later.
    0:49:02 The intensity and emotions of it are very, very high, but obviously, this being my second
    0:49:04 one, I had some familiarity with it.
    0:49:06 The game is the exact same.
    0:49:12 The emotion and intensity and all of that is going to enhance what’s happening in your
    0:49:13 head.
    0:49:16 For better or worse, or it could be either.
    0:49:18 It can be both.
    0:49:25 I think it’s worse when you try to do things outside of either your job or the things that
    0:49:27 you’ve done to get there.
    0:49:32 Chris Long, who had won a Super Bowl in New England right before we played in Super Bowl
    0:49:38 52 with the Eagles, his biggest advice was don’t let the moment dictate things to you.
    0:49:42 Do everything that got us here, and when the play is there, you’ll be ready to make the
    0:49:43 play.
    0:49:46 Did you feel you were able to do that in this past year, Super Bowl?
    0:49:48 For the most part, I mean, you always have plays you want back.
    0:49:51 You’re never going to go out there and play a perfect game.
    0:49:56 And unfortunately, I’ve found when you lose, you definitely remember the plays that you
    0:49:57 could have had back.
    0:50:01 Did losing a Super Bowl add to your wanting to come back or subtract to wanting to come
    0:50:02 back?
    0:50:05 Unequivocally added to it, and I don’t think it should have.
    0:50:09 It’s so hard to get there, and there’s so many things that need to happen right after
    0:50:15 the game I wanted to play another season, and I had to really step away and figure out,
    0:50:16 is this the right thing?
    0:50:17 Is this the right thing for your body?
    0:50:19 Is this the right thing for the family?
    0:50:20 And can you do it?
    0:50:26 My biggest thing is, I want to do it the way it needs to be done, being who you are in
    0:50:31 the meeting room on the field around your teammates, investing in that, as well as practicing
    0:50:36 hard, as well as lifting weights.
    0:50:42 On the 2023 team report card, Jason Kelsey’s Eagles came out middle of the pack, 14th out
    0:50:48 of 32 teams, with A’s for food and the weight room, but a C minus for the training room and
    0:50:50 a D for travel.
    0:50:54 I asked Kelsey if those grades reflected his own views.
    0:50:55 I thought it was spot on.
    0:51:03 I’d be curious to see what the standard deviation on each one of these was, because when I saw
    0:51:05 the results, it was almost to the T.
    0:51:07 You felt like you were looking at your answers.
    0:51:11 Yeah, but I know that a lot of guys filled it out.
    0:51:14 So for the Eagles, I’m looking at your report card.
    0:51:24 Both coaches A plus, training staff A plus, but training room C minus, locker room C plus.
    0:51:26 Explain why there’s such a split there.
    0:51:32 I think that both of those rooms are led really well.
    0:51:34 They do forward innovative things.
    0:51:37 They’re open to discussing things with the players.
    0:51:40 Give me an example if you don’t mind of the forward innovative things.
    0:51:46 So there’s a whole discrepancy right now in the NFL of do you practice on Wednesdays or
    0:51:49 how many hard days in a row?
    0:51:55 The strength staff is very involved with the training staff at one, trying to help players
    0:51:59 get better, but also to mitigate injuries.
    0:52:06 Training camp used to be two days, hard every single day, three hour practices.
    0:52:07 Pads and helmets.
    0:52:08 That’s right.
    0:52:16 And now it is much more of a tiered system where one day is a yellow day and that goes
    0:52:20 into one, the intensity practice, but also the length at which you’re out there.
    0:52:22 Green is a, we’re getting geared up.
    0:52:28 This is going to be a barn burner, but it’s done in a calculated way that the coaches understand,
    0:52:34 that the players understand, and that is done in scientifically the optimal way for
    0:52:39 a player to one, stay healthy, but also improve.
    0:52:47 Those changes were the result, I assume, almost entirely of NFLPA, the player’s union requests
    0:52:50 and negotiations over the years, not from the teams, but tell me if I’m wrong there.
    0:52:52 I would say you’re wrong.
    0:52:57 The two days for sure was a big negotiating factor by the PA before I got into the league,
    0:53:01 but there is a very large gray area in terms of how long practices are.
    0:53:06 They can’t be over a certain amount of time on the field, but we are, quite frankly, way
    0:53:09 underneath that threshold.
    0:53:16 But I think I would be very much remiss if I didn’t give credit to the Eagles organization,
    0:53:24 our strength staff and our training staff at going beyond what the collective NFL mindset
    0:53:25 is on that.
    0:53:30 Your team got an A in food service and nutrition.
    0:53:34 Let me tell you, it’s so good, Steven.
    0:53:35 Why have you not invited me for lunch yet?
    0:53:36 Come on over.
    0:53:37 All right.
    0:53:43 The Eagles, to their credit, have taken that feedback from players since I’ve been there.
    0:53:48 It is remarkable how much the cafeteria has changed for the better, and one, the quality
    0:53:53 of food that’s there, and two, the wide range of what you can get.
    0:53:58 During the season, are there days where you eat three meals a day at the facility or no?
    0:53:59 Yes.
    0:54:02 On Wednesdays and Thursdays, I eat breakfast, lunch, and dinner there.
    0:54:03 Okay.
    0:54:04 So, walk me through those meals.
    0:54:07 I’m not asking you to name everything you eat, but give me a typical breakfast, typical
    0:54:09 lunch, typical dinner.
    0:54:17 My breakfast is usually the, if not the exact same, one item different off, and it used
    0:54:18 to be Chef Tim.
    0:54:19 Shout out to Chef Tim.
    0:54:25 He’s no longer with the Eagles, but I usually go in, I get three eggs over easy with three
    0:54:30 sausage links and breakfast potatoes, and then I go get a bagel with cream cheese on
    0:54:34 it and honey, and then a cup of blueberries.
    0:54:35 Lunch, so we have a few stations.
    0:54:40 We have a station right when you come in, which is really for your clean eating, right?
    0:54:49 It’s going to be some type of rice or grain, maybe a noodle, and some veggies that have
    0:54:50 been cooked.
    0:54:57 And then to the left of that, there’s going to be a pretty clean, low-fat added type of
    0:54:58 meat, right?
    0:55:04 And then the more you go left, you’ll get a little bit of fried stuff, right?
    0:55:09 So if you’re in the mood for some french fries or like a sausage, sandwich, hoagie, and then
    0:55:15 if you go even left of that, this is probably my favorite station, they’ve gone to a like
    0:55:17 regional dish.
    0:55:21 A lot of times in season, it’s based on a player’s favorite food or where they’re from.
    0:55:23 Give me a for instance.
    0:55:30 Well for me, I went to Thailand one year, so I had them do Penang Curry with non-bread,
    0:55:33 just absolutely one of my favorite dishes.
    0:55:38 Another day, it might be, I think it was either Fletcher Cox or Brandon Graham was smothered
    0:55:39 pork chops.
    0:55:40 Okay.
    0:55:44 So I can see why that gets an A. The D grade that Eagles got for team travel, would you
    0:55:47 agree with that assessment?
    0:55:51 That might have been lower than what I ranked it, but I did not rank it high.
    0:55:52 If I was any higher, it was a C.
    0:55:56 I’m reading here, it says only half of the players feel they have enough room to spread
    0:55:57 out.
    0:55:58 I guess that’s on the plane.
    0:56:03 You don’t have roommates in a hotel at least, which some teams do, but you’re one of only
    0:56:06 seven teams that don’t offer first class seats to their players.
    0:56:09 And I did not know that before this study.
    0:56:12 When Chip Kelly was the head coach, he did allow, obviously everybody can sit in first
    0:56:18 class, but he did allow starters and players who are extremely large to sit in the first
    0:56:20 class seats instead of the coaches.
    0:56:21 It’s a nice perk.
    0:56:24 Anybody who sat first class knows that those seats are pretty nice.
    0:56:31 We have a player, Jordan Malata, who’s north of six, six and 400 pounds almost.
    0:56:36 He’s going to struggle to fit any situation in the back of the plane.
    0:56:42 I will say there was one point we were coming back on a short flight and they didn’t turn
    0:56:45 the TVs on on the back of the seats.
    0:56:48 And I remember just flipping out, we’re a billion dollar organization and we can’t
    0:56:50 even get free movies on these flights.
    0:56:52 Like, what’s going on here, guys?
    0:56:53 Who’d you say that to?
    0:56:59 I said that to one of the stewardesses and then one of the guys that runs everything for
    0:57:03 logistics with the team kind of came back and he’s a guy we’re going to turn the TVs
    0:57:04 on Jason.
    0:57:10 So now what about being charged for food in Arizona, let’s say, did that surprise you?
    0:57:11 It didn’t.
    0:57:15 I was in Philly my first few years in the off season, at least, you know, we went to
    0:57:21 Arizona and we used the Arizona Cardinals facilities and I can say first hand, they are not investing
    0:57:22 in this place.
    0:57:27 The weight room had, I’m not kidding you, the mats of the weight room were like, I don’t
    0:57:31 know if they had water moisture that was getting in there, but the rubber mat that was on top
    0:57:36 of the concrete floor was like peeling up on the corners of it.
    0:57:38 You’re like walking on an uneven surface the whole time.
    0:57:40 I was like, how are people not just getting hurt in here?
    0:57:43 It was eye-openingly bad, in my opinion.
    0:57:46 What about the rats in Jacksonville, did that surprise you?
    0:57:47 Not one bit.
    0:57:48 I mean, come on, man.
    0:57:54 I’ve gotten trouble for talking trash on Jacksonville one time so I got to calm it down, but yeah,
    0:57:55 that’s stadium.
    0:57:58 I have not been too much and I’m very thankful of that.
    0:58:01 Do you think this report card will lead to any change?
    0:58:02 I do.
    0:58:04 It’s already led to change.
    0:58:09 They installed a much larger cold pool in the actual training room.
    0:58:14 We used to have two above ground pools out back, which I always, you know, we’re a billion-dollar
    0:58:16 organization with above ground pools.
    0:58:19 I think we can maybe do better than this.
    0:58:21 Above ground outdoors, like in the winter?
    0:58:25 So they would have to shut them down in the winter and that was a big issue with it.
    0:58:26 So they’ve already made corrections on that.
    0:58:30 I believe they’re addressing some of the family issues at games.
    0:58:37 The weight room is adding another tier that’s going to add more footprint for more bikes
    0:58:40 and other workout equipment.
    0:58:43 I do think teams are going to respond to it just like players are competitive.
    0:58:48 I think owners are competitive and I think that owners are certainly a good portion of
    0:58:53 owners are not going to like seeing their organization viewed in a negative light and
    0:58:57 I think that they’re going to try and correct these things.
    0:59:05 What can the rest of us learn from this process of a union representing the workers goes in,
    0:59:12 asks everybody a lot of questions, and then produces a report and it lands and now we’re
    0:59:14 going to see what happens.
    0:59:15 What should we be learning from this?
    0:59:19 What would you say to a CEO who might be listening to this and saying, “Holy cow, yeah, like
    0:59:21 this is low hanging fruit.
    0:59:26 I fixed the mats in the weight room and I don’t have Jason Kelsey trashing me.”
    0:59:27 That’s right.
    0:59:32 I think unequivocally that more unions should be doing this.
    0:59:37 It’s different when one person comes to you with an anecdote or a one-off as opposed to
    0:59:43 a literal survey of your entire workforce saying, “This is what we think of the place
    0:59:45 that you have us operate in.”
    0:59:53 For CEOs and owners, I think that seeing it this way gives you a much more realistic idea
    0:59:56 of what your workplace environment is.
    1:00:03 I would want this information and as a worker, I would want my boss to know this, but to
    1:00:07 also not be punished if I tell him to his face.
    1:00:09 I’m a big fan of this survey.
    1:00:14 I think that it will lead to a lot of change in some of these NFL organizations, especially
    1:00:17 if it’s done on an annual basis.
    1:00:24 I see no reason why other fields or places of business would not follow suit and try
    1:00:26 to make changes as well.
    1:00:32 What he wants to be known as the cheapskate, I think that as before, when it was rumored
    1:00:43 you were the cheapskate, it was harder to prove now there’s data.
    1:00:49 We want to live in a world where we’re giving out 32A pluses for all the teams.
    1:00:51 That again is JC Treader.
    1:00:56 When we went into this year one, I told the staff when we started it, “If all
    1:01:01 that comes from this is four teams start giving dinner to those players, it’s a win.”
    1:01:06 Now, I’m curious to know what you’ve heard from teams about the survey.
    1:01:08 Have you heard anything directly from the teams?
    1:01:13 Yeah, we’ve heard from about 12 to 15 teams who have reached out to us just to say, “What
    1:01:14 can we do better?
    1:01:15 Can you give us more information?
    1:01:17 What changes would make us better?”
    1:01:21 I give credit to Arthur Blank who’s the owner for the Atlanta Falcons.
    1:01:25 There was an article written where he said he pulled his president and GM and head coach
    1:01:31 aside and told them, “One, if this comes out again, they absolutely cannot be graded as
    1:01:33 low as they were before.
    1:01:37 Also that they need to start being more proactive and it shouldn’t take this type of thing to
    1:01:38 create the change.
    1:01:42 They should be, as leaders of the organization, be looking around corners and realizing where
    1:01:44 they’re weak and where they need to improve.”
    1:01:47 I don’t know Arthur well from people who do.
    1:01:52 It seems like it’s not just lip service and that he’s going to act on those words.
    1:01:57 After the report cards were released, the Falcons announced a $30 million upgrade to
    1:01:59 their locker room, weight room, and cafeteria.
    1:02:03 Although they also said the renovations had already been planned and they were not done
    1:02:09 in response to the report card where they came in 23rd out of 32 teams.
    1:02:10 Those are the things you want to see.
    1:02:12 Don’t get defensive about this.
    1:02:13 That’s not what we’re hoping for.
    1:02:18 We’re hoping that people see like, “Okay, this team is providing this, this, and this.
    1:02:19 Maybe we should provide that too.”
    1:02:23 Because in the end, as adversarial, sometimes we are, the teams need the players and the
    1:02:25 players need the franchises.
    1:02:27 Do you plan to do the survey every year?
    1:02:28 Yes.
    1:02:32 And year two is going to be more important than year one because year one, owners could
    1:02:33 claim ignorance.
    1:02:36 I think more will claim ignorance than should claim ignorance.
    1:02:38 For some of it, I’m sure they didn’t know.
    1:02:41 I don’t think many owners are hanging out in the hot tubs with the guys.
    1:02:44 And if they do, that’s a story of itself that we should be diving into of why are they
    1:02:47 hanging out in the hot tubs with the guys.
    1:02:53 But year two, now that this is out there, if some things aren’t changed, you can’t claim
    1:02:54 ignorance anymore.
    1:03:01 Considering that an NFL workplace is substantially different in many ways from a typical workplace,
    1:03:07 what’s there to be learned from this survey for workers and employers who have nothing
    1:03:10 to do with pro sports, et cetera?
    1:03:14 The teams are called franchises, and I think that’s a connector outside of our industry.
    1:03:18 I think there is an expectation that everything is equal in the NFL, and I think everybody
    1:03:22 would think it’s equal at Starbucks and equal at Chick-fil-A and equal at McDonald’s.
    1:03:27 And if you go to a franchise, the rules and the treatment of the workers are the same.
    1:03:28 And I think we know that’s not true.
    1:03:33 And if you’re a worker, I think it would be valuable to know the treatment you will receive
    1:03:36 if you decide to work at one franchise versus another.
    1:03:42 And I also think if you’re the overall company, it would be interesting to see how your franchises
    1:03:48 who are carrying your name and dictating your brand image, how they treat their workers
    1:03:58 and how they treat their customers and how that varies across different franchise operators.
    1:04:05 I went back to Tom Garfinkel, the Miami Dolphins CEO and president, with a similar question.
    1:04:09 What kind of lessons are there to be drawn from this report card for the companies that
    1:04:11 aren’t NFL teams?
    1:04:15 Are there things that are applicable, or is the NFL work environment just too different
    1:04:17 to be useful for comparison?
    1:04:19 I think it’s definitely useful for comparison.
    1:04:25 I think it comes down to culture, values and standards, investment into your people.
    1:04:31 I’m a believer that people need to work together physically, certain jobs, if you’re coding,
    1:04:34 sitting at your computer all day, and that’s all you do.
    1:04:38 You could probably do that as easily from home as from an office, but most environments
    1:04:39 are still very human.
    1:04:44 They rely on human interaction and investing in those environments and investing in that
    1:04:49 organic interaction enhances creativity, it enhances productivity.
    1:04:53 It enhances people want meaning, right?
    1:04:56 It goes back to Victor Frankel and everything.
    1:04:57 Meaning matters.
    1:05:01 And I think what we do, it’s more than sports, it’s more than football.
    1:05:02 It’s about meaning.
    1:05:03 It’s about social interaction.
    1:05:07 We bring people together to experience life together.
    1:05:13 It’s still better to be in a stadium when someone catches that pass in the fourth quarter
    1:05:16 to win a football game than to watch it on television by yourself at home because you’re
    1:05:19 experiencing it with other people.
    1:05:24 And whether it’s that as a fan or whether it’s employees interacting together in the
    1:05:29 workplace, particularly in environments like this one and many are like this where people
    1:05:30 work very hard.
    1:05:36 They work long hours and you’re with your coworkers a lot and you want it to be inspiring.
    1:05:41 You want it to inspire creativity, productivity, happiness, positivity.
    1:05:45 And I think that’s the bigger lesson in all this than anything football related.
    1:05:52 I have to say, when we started working on this episode about workplace conditions in
    1:05:58 the NFL, I never thought we’d end up at Victor Frankel, but I’m glad we did.
    1:06:05 Frankel was an Austrian psychologist, a Holocaust survivor, best known for writing man’s search
    1:06:06 for meaning.
    1:06:08 If you haven’t read it, I’d suggest you do.
    1:06:12 It will make you think as it made Tom Garfinkel think.
    1:06:16 Thanks to him as well as all the other guests on today’s show.
    1:06:22 Also, let me share an update on the 2024 NFL Players Association report card.
    1:06:28 The Philadelphia Eagles jumped from 14th out of 32 teams all the way up to fourth.
    1:06:32 Too bad Jason Kelsey had retired and wasn’t around to enjoy that.
    1:06:37 The Eagles opponent in the upcoming Super Bowl, the Kansas City Chiefs, still get lousy
    1:06:44 marks on their report card, ranking 31st due to poor facilities and low grades for team
    1:06:46 owner Clark Hunt.
    1:06:51 The biggest jump on the ratings list was the Jacksonville Jaguars, who went from 28th
    1:06:57 to fifth thanks to upgrades in their facilities, which are now rat free.
    1:07:04 And the very best team to work for, according to the 2024 report card, was the Miami Dolphins,
    1:07:10 in part because Tom Garfinkel kept the promise he told us about to fix the family room.
    1:07:14 Second and third this year were the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers.
    1:07:16 That’s it for this update.
    1:07:18 We will be back soon with another new episode.
    1:07:20 Until then, take care of yourself.
    1:07:23 And if you can, someone else too.
    1:07:26 Freakonomics Radio is produced by Stitcher and Renbud Radio.
    1:07:32 This episode was produced by Ryan Kelly and updated by Dalvin Abouaji and Theo Jacobs.
    1:07:36 The Freakonomics Radio network staff also includes Alina Cullman, Augusta Chapman, Eleanor
    1:07:41 Osborn, Ellen Frankman, Elsa Hernandez, Gabriel Rolf, Greg Rippen, Jasmine Klinger, Jeremy
    1:07:47 Johnston, John Schnarrs, Morgan Levy, Neil Coruth, Sarah Lilly, and Zach Lipinski.
    1:07:52 You can find our entire archive on any podcast app or at Freakonomics.com, where we also
    1:07:54 publish transcripts and show notes.
    1:07:58 Our theme song is Mr. Fortune by the Hitchhikers.
    1:08:00 Our composer is Luis Guerra.
    1:08:09 As always, thanks for listening.
    1:08:10 How’d you bowl today, by the way?
    1:08:11 Terrible.
    1:08:12 It was one of my worst outings.
    1:08:13 The lights were slick.
    1:08:14 They put too much oil on.
    1:08:15 Oh, come on, come on, come on.
    1:08:16 It wasn’t ideal.
    1:08:17 Poor carpenter blames his tools.
    1:08:18 That’s fair.
    1:08:19 The Freakonomics Radio network.
    1:08:20 The hidden side of everything.
    1:08:21 Stitcher.
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    In 2023, the N.F.L. players’ union conducted a workplace survey that revealed clogged showers, rats in the locker room — and some insights for those of us who don’t play football. Today we’re updating that episode, with extra commentary from Omnipresent Football Guy (and former Philadelphia Eagle) Jason Kelce. 

     

    • SOURCES:
      • Tom Garfinkel, vice chairman, C.E.O., and president of the Miami Dolphins.
      • Jim Ivler, certified contract advisor for players in the National Football League.
      • Jason Kelce, host of New Heights podcast and former center for the Philadelphia Eagles.
      • Jalen Reeves-Maybin, linebacker for the Detroit Lions and president of the National Football League Players Association.
      • Betsey Stevenson, professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan.
      • J.C. Tretter, former president of the National Football League Players Association and former offensive lineman.
      • Mark Wilf, owner and president of the Minnesota Vikings.

     

     

  • #213 Mickey Drexler: The Art of Selling with Retail’s Merchant Prince

    AI transcript
    0:00:03 What I do, I have a photograph in my mind.
    0:00:08 I go into a shop, it paints a picture or it doesn’t.
    0:00:11 One bad color in a great painting.
    0:00:15 That changes, throws off the whole painting.
    0:00:19 It’s like the wheels, the ugly wheels on a Mustang.
    0:00:21 And I mean that every car now has ugly wheels,
    0:00:22 I can’t get over it.
    0:00:24 You know, you see the wheels,
    0:00:28 it’s like having a bad button on a sweater like this.
    0:00:30 This is one of the best sellers.
    0:00:33 And if you put an ugly button on this,
    0:00:35 that’s what you notice.
    0:00:41 And I say never give a customer a reason not to buy something.
    0:00:59 Welcome to The Knowledge Project.
    0:01:01 I’m your host, Shane Parrish.
    0:01:03 In a world where knowledge is power,
    0:01:06 this podcast is your toolkit for mastering the best
    0:01:08 what other people have already figured out.
    0:01:12 Most people think retail is about selling things.
    0:01:17 Mickey Drexler proved it’s about selling dreams.
    0:01:20 As the CEO of Gap and J Crew,
    0:01:24 he understood something profound about the American aspiration.
    0:01:26 People don’t just want clothes.
    0:01:30 They want to become someone through what they wear.
    0:01:34 A boy from the Bronx who transformed into retail’s merchant prince,
    0:01:38 Drexler could walk into a room with a hundred samples
    0:01:41 and instantly spot the three winners
    0:01:43 because he saw what Americans wanted to become
    0:01:45 before they knew it themselves.
    0:01:49 From advising Steve Jobs on Apple’s retail strategy
    0:01:51 to building Old Navy from scratch,
    0:01:54 Drexler’s career traces a remarkable journey
    0:01:57 of seeing opportunities that others missed.
    0:02:00 In this conversation, he shares the insights and instincts
    0:02:04 that let him repeatedly predict and shape American taste.
    0:02:06 Whether you’re building a brand,
    0:02:07 leading a team,
    0:02:10 or trying to see around corners in your own industry,
    0:02:13 you’ll learn how one of the retail’s greatest minds
    0:02:16 thinks about the psychology of consumer desire,
    0:02:18 the principles of brand building,
    0:02:23 and the art of knowing what people want often before they do.
    0:02:27 It’s time to listen and learn.
    0:02:29 Let’s start at the beginning.
    0:02:33 You said your father was a model of what you didn’t want.
    0:02:37 He didn’t fit up my job description
    0:02:41 of what I thought a good father should be.
    0:02:44 Yeah, I didn’t know what I wanted then.
    0:02:47 I didn’t know, you know, when you’re a kid,
    0:02:49 like you moving all over the place,
    0:02:52 you don’t know what’s right and what’s not right.
    0:02:54 You learn over time.
    0:02:56 What was that relationship like?
    0:02:59 He was, it wasn’t good.
    0:03:01 He wasn’t a sensitive guy.
    0:03:03 He had no emotion.
    0:03:05 He didn’t treat my mom well who died.
    0:03:09 You know, she had cancer the year I was born.
    0:03:11 And what was it like?
    0:03:15 I didn’t know any better at all.
    0:03:18 And I thought this is what a father is like.
    0:03:22 And over the years, I learned that this is not
    0:03:25 what a good father is like.
    0:03:28 And he never, he was an angry, bitter guy.
    0:03:30 He was not successful.
    0:03:35 And, you know, he always talked, he wanted to be a big shot.
    0:03:39 So in my family, he acted like a big shot
    0:03:43 with my mom’s three sisters and my seven cousins.
    0:03:46 And by the way, the irony is none of them liked him
    0:03:49 because he wasn’t a warm, fuzzy, nice person.
    0:03:52 But I didn’t know that when I was growing up.
    0:03:54 How did that affect you?
    0:04:00 I think my ambition comes from being the opposite of him, I think.
    0:04:06 I always lived in my fantasies escaping where I am.
    0:04:09 And Peggy, my wife said, you know,
    0:04:12 maybe that’s where your creativity comes from.
    0:04:16 I don’t believe it came from that because I think creativity
    0:04:21 is part of your DNA and I don’t think it can be taught.
    0:04:24 So, but, you know, it affected me.
    0:04:29 He never took any pleasure in my success.
    0:04:32 And I, he just never did.
    0:04:35 Was there a moment when you realized he wasn’t a big shot?
    0:04:38 Well, I’ll tell you, it’s an interesting story.
    0:04:43 I used to work, he worked in the garment code company.
    0:04:45 He worked buttons.
    0:04:47 He had kind of a low level-ish job.
    0:04:49 Well, I didn’t want to face that.
    0:04:55 And he, they asked me to take the payroll.
    0:04:56 I was 16.
    0:04:59 He said, take the payroll to the bank.
    0:05:01 What do I do?
    0:05:05 I duck out the freight entrance on West 37th Street
    0:05:08 Avenue, go into the neighboring freight entrance.
    0:05:12 I looked through all the pay stubs or whatever it is.
    0:05:18 He was one of the lowest paid people there relative to his peer group,
    0:05:21 who he would always put down and whatever.
    0:05:23 That was a reality for me.
    0:05:26 So that was a cold reality.
    0:05:31 So my thoughts of him being whatever disappeared then.
    0:05:37 And as I grew, he, he wasn’t a good dad.
    0:05:40 So when I lived there, I was going to City College.
    0:05:41 I was miserable.
    0:05:45 And I was, you know, I just got subways, Long Island Railroad.
    0:05:47 And I had to escape from the house.
    0:05:51 So I luckily got into, I didn’t know where to apply,
    0:05:54 State University of Buffalo.
    0:05:57 Some guy I knew went, he wasn’t even a close friend.
    0:05:58 I got in.
    0:06:00 So I escaped to Buffalo.
    0:06:02 And for two years.
    0:06:07 And, but it was, you know, never took any.
    0:06:12 He was competitive with me in an ironic way.
    0:06:15 And, you know, I was getting a lot of press when I,
    0:06:18 you know, I worked 12 years in the department stores.
    0:06:21 And then I was very lucky, fortunate.
    0:06:26 I was called to run Ann Taylor then in 1980.
    0:06:27 I was a young guy.
    0:06:30 I, you know, I don’t know.
    0:06:33 I said, okay, I didn’t know what I would do next.
    0:06:35 After 12 years in the department stores,
    0:06:42 I couldn’t find the stimulation and the excitement
    0:06:45 or whatever you call it, of the organizations.
    0:06:47 And I don’t think they’re much different.
    0:06:50 Political suck up.
    0:06:53 I didn’t know how to articulate this.
    0:06:55 But I think in most big companies,
    0:06:59 people are always sucking up to their bosses.
    0:07:02 That’s my own experience.
    0:07:05 And these develop over time, you know,
    0:07:08 because the boss reviews you, the boss promotes you.
    0:07:11 I’ve learned over the last number of years,
    0:07:18 the best judge of a boss is the person who works for the boss.
    0:07:20 Tell me more about that.
    0:07:24 Well, it’s my own thing, I think, in corporations.
    0:07:27 And, well, look at all the CEOs out there.
    0:07:31 I don’t know all of them, but I think safe.
    0:07:34 They went to the right schools.
    0:07:37 I couldn’t care less where anyone goes to school.
    0:07:39 I like to see a college degree,
    0:07:42 but I also like to see a work history.
    0:07:46 But if you’re a safe choice and, you know, it’s, again,
    0:07:50 it’s an editorial in what I think people would argue
    0:07:54 if they went to a fancy school here and a fancy school there.
    0:07:57 And now it starts, and I was guilty when my son
    0:08:01 was five years old going to a nursery school.
    0:08:03 I didn’t have any connections.
    0:08:05 I thought it was a fancy one.
    0:08:07 It wasn’t a good choice.
    0:08:10 But I think if you look at people, you know,
    0:08:13 like everyone, all these earnings reports,
    0:08:16 I know the public relations people write that.
    0:08:18 They script them.
    0:08:20 And safe.
    0:08:22 You have a good education.
    0:08:26 You don’t want to take a risk on picking the wrong boss
    0:08:29 or senior executives.
    0:08:32 And I think there’s a lot of self-interested people
    0:08:34 in this world, plenty of them.
    0:08:36 Why do you think we’re so risk averse?
    0:08:39 Well, I can’t answer for others.
    0:08:43 I think, you know, why?
    0:08:47 I think you have to be creative to move any business forward,
    0:08:49 any institution.
    0:08:51 And that’s what I think.
    0:08:55 And it’s really based on my own personal experience.
    0:09:01 And also in the sector I’m in, fashion and all that,
    0:09:04 creative drives the engines.
    0:09:09 And so why are they risk– it’s a good question.
    0:09:13 Well, salary, they don’t want to risk that.
    0:09:15 They don’t want to risk that.
    0:09:20 I mean, they get very wealthy these days becoming a CEO.
    0:09:22 When you transformed the gap,
    0:09:26 you renovated all 430 stores at the same time
    0:09:29 with no focus group, nothing.
    0:09:30 Oh, my God.
    0:09:33 If you take over something,
    0:09:36 you’ve got to get rid of the old merchandise
    0:09:39 because it ties up a lot of cash.
    0:09:43 And Don Bless’s heart was nervous about the earnings.
    0:09:45 I get emotional.
    0:09:48 You know, my stomach speaks for me a lot.
    0:09:51 But, you know, business got tough for the first year.
    0:09:55 The stock dropped probably 50%.
    0:09:59 And, you know, I never– I worked hard
    0:10:02 and I was scared after a year.
    0:10:03 I’ll never forget.
    0:10:06 We were talking about– it was a year and a half
    0:10:08 we were in Carmel and we’re sitting there.
    0:10:11 We come up with kind of a bankruptcy plan.
    0:10:14 That’s when I started to get nervous.
    0:10:17 And I’ve been there a year and a half.
    0:10:21 Don redid the 400 plus stores.
    0:10:23 I redid all the merchandise.
    0:10:26 I threw it all out and that’s where he was concerned.
    0:10:28 But you got to take–
    0:10:30 and you got to get the cash out of bad goods.
    0:10:33 It’s like rotten fish or whatever.
    0:10:38 So we redid the stores.
    0:10:40 Hey, what you doing?
    0:10:42 Programming our thermostat to 17 degrees
    0:10:44 when we’re out at work or asleep.
    0:10:46 We’re taking control of our energy use this winter
    0:10:49 with some easy energy saving tips I got from Fortis, B.C.
    0:10:52 Ooh, conserve energy and save money?
    0:10:54 Maybe to buy those matching winter jackets?
    0:10:56 Uh, no.
    0:10:59 We’re also getting that whole matching outfit thing under control.
    0:11:02 Discover low and no cost energy saving tips
    0:11:05 at fortisbc.com/energysavingtips.
    0:11:06 Matching tracksuits?
    0:11:07 Please no.
    0:11:11 What gave you the confidence to do that?
    0:11:13 I mean, this was like a–
    0:11:15 we’re basically going to go extinct.
    0:11:17 So that’s the base case.
    0:11:20 Those two or three years.
    0:11:25 Even when it turned around, it was like, uh-oh.
    0:11:28 But I worked my ass off.
    0:11:32 I kept– no one taught me how to run Ant Taylor.
    0:11:35 I just did it without any supervision
    0:11:38 because the headquarters– it was $25 million business.
    0:11:41 But I just went in there day one.
    0:11:44 And, you know, corporate– a lot of people,
    0:11:46 they leave you alone.
    0:11:48 Or they don’t leave you alone.
    0:11:49 That’s what I was.
    0:11:52 And the threat was if I don’t turn this–
    0:11:53 I was under pressure.
    0:11:54 I didn’t make money there.
    0:11:55 They didn’t pay me.
    0:11:56 I didn’t negotiate, whatever.
    0:11:58 But it is what it is.
    0:12:06 So I always depended upon my gut, my instinct.
    0:12:09 And in hindsight, I did.
    0:12:14 I knew who was a good person, not a good person.
    0:12:18 I knew who was full of it and down to earth.
    0:12:22 And in the department store, it was 12 years.
    0:12:26 I kept looking for the right place to go.
    0:12:29 You mentioned– you could tell the difference
    0:12:32 between who was a good person and who was a bad person.
    0:12:34 Who knew what they were talking about and who didn’t.
    0:12:35 What are the tells?
    0:12:36 How would you teach somebody to do that?
    0:12:38 You can’t teach anyone.
    0:12:42 I am a huge proponent.
    0:12:46 And I never could say, like, Jesus, they’re the president.
    0:12:47 They’re the CEO.
    0:12:49 They’re the this.
    0:12:55 And I’m thinking, I’m not impressed privately.
    0:13:00 And I can name drop some of the big shots of the time
    0:13:02 in the retail business.
    0:13:08 And I would say something like not a merchant.
    0:13:11 They look at me that I could tell.
    0:13:14 And because I was a merchant, I guess,
    0:13:18 my first, second day at Bloomingdale’s,
    0:13:21 they put me in charge of a department
    0:13:25 because the buyer, Barbara, was on maternity leave.
    0:13:27 Stan Stern, who I love dearly.
    0:13:29 He was a great boss.
    0:13:31 I was on my own.
    0:13:32 And I just did it.
    0:13:34 What does it mean to be a merchant?
    0:13:40 What it means to me is– and it’s not a lot, I think.
    0:13:47 It means to know from what’s going to sell well,
    0:13:51 from what’s not going to maybe sell well.
    0:13:53 Focus, make sure it’s on brand.
    0:13:55 Now, this is what I do.
    0:13:57 No rear view mirror.
    0:13:59 Most people do rear view mirror.
    0:14:02 And they say, well, we sold last year this.
    0:14:05 Sometimes it’s going to go this way a lot.
    0:14:09 So you chase what’s over in post peak.
    0:14:14 It means to me to be a merchant is having a sense
    0:14:17 of what’s going to sell knowing that–
    0:14:24 like I always had an instinct, I guess, on what I loved.
    0:14:30 And I learned later on if I think it is non-negotiable.
    0:14:33 The word that comes to mind, though, is like taste.
    0:14:35 Well, that’s a good question.
    0:14:36 What’s the difference between?
    0:14:40 Well, you know, for me, I use that word a lot.
    0:14:43 But it’s in the eyes of the beholder.
    0:14:45 I have a friend who’s very successful.
    0:14:47 I was talking about the ugly merchandise
    0:14:49 in one of the companies he’s involved with.
    0:14:53 He said, well, to the customer, it’s not ugly.
    0:14:55 To me, it’s ugly.
    0:14:57 Now, I know what I know.
    0:15:01 And I don’t know where my eye came from.
    0:15:06 But it came from somewhere, but taste and style
    0:15:11 and fair value and moving forward and having a vision,
    0:15:14 those are the key ingredients that I think.
    0:15:17 Now, when people say, well, look how good that company is doing,
    0:15:20 I said that’s not what I like to do.
    0:15:24 I like to be proud of the merchandise.
    0:15:29 I like it to be fit my standards.
    0:15:33 I don’t say it that way of what it is vision.
    0:15:39 And I like, I can always tell when something’s not on brand.
    0:15:43 I remember in some of my jobs, I remember looking at something.
    0:15:45 It was a big tell.
    0:15:49 And I said, oh, and I didn’t follow my instinct
    0:15:51 and really hurt one of the companies.
    0:15:53 You know, there’s people involved.
    0:15:59 But it means to be a good merchant is you can’t define it,
    0:16:01 but you know when you know.
    0:16:02 You know it when you see it.
    0:16:05 So if we were to walk outside and walk in a store
    0:16:08 and you had five minutes to walk me through
    0:16:10 how you evaluate the merchandising.
    0:16:12 So it takes five minutes, three minutes.
    0:16:14 What would you look at?
    0:16:16 The picture painted.
    0:16:23 Because when I, I just always, it’s a really interesting question
    0:16:27 because I don’t know how to explain what I look at.
    0:16:30 But I look at colors very important.
    0:16:33 When I did gap, I had a list of styles.
    0:16:35 I was trying to start something.
    0:16:38 I was looking for my vision.
    0:16:40 I always admired Ralph Lauren,
    0:16:42 but I couldn’t afford his clothes.
    0:16:44 He was a Bronx guy ahead of me.
    0:16:48 And, you know, I always, he was always had a point of view.
    0:16:52 And I admired him.
    0:16:54 I used to buy his clothes wholesale.
    0:16:55 Why?
    0:17:00 Because a friend of mine’s cousin was his secretary.
    0:17:02 So I got it half off, whatever.
    0:17:04 But I always liked his taste.
    0:17:06 And it’s still the same today.
    0:17:09 And there’s not a lot of people who do that.
    0:17:11 So it’s interesting coming back to your friend’s comment
    0:17:14 about, well, the customer is deciding what we sell.
    0:17:20 If you’re selling, if your game, I guess, is to sell the most product
    0:17:22 at the lowest prices, you’re going to be selling the same thing
    0:17:24 that everybody else was selling.
    0:17:26 But you’re telling me you wanted to create a different vision,
    0:17:29 one that’s like escaped the competition in a way.
    0:17:33 Well, what I do, I say this is my plan.
    0:17:35 I look for white space.
    0:17:37 This is in hindsight.
    0:17:41 So Ann Taylor was usually successful.
    0:17:46 I left after four years because my bosses were bureaucrats.
    0:17:48 And I didn’t like it there.
    0:17:52 And I also was at the stage in my life where I had to have something
    0:17:56 I wanted to do where I could feel not compensated the right.
    0:17:58 I was very happy with what I earned.
    0:18:01 But I faced the realities of living in Manhattan.
    0:18:07 Anyway, I always had, Ann Taylor was purely instinctive,
    0:18:16 but I did learn there that I didn’t want to sell brand ABCD.
    0:18:21 And today you can get every brand at a discount.
    0:18:24 And TJ Max, my friend there, she’s the best.
    0:18:28 You can go to TJ Max and trust.
    0:18:31 But they’re the biggest customers of most brands.
    0:18:36 So I didn’t want to carry, because Alexander’s taught me the lesson.
    0:18:39 I was maybe 25 years old.
    0:18:43 And I said, Jesus, something’s wrong here.
    0:18:46 And I’m self-taught.
    0:18:48 And then I’m also very curious.
    0:18:51 When I joined Ann Taylor, Brooks Brothers,
    0:18:54 and I saw it decline dramatically then,
    0:18:59 because no merchants running at the quality.
    0:19:02 They would take quality out to maintain price.
    0:19:08 But they had a protective device about competitors.
    0:19:10 They owned their name.
    0:19:12 They didn’t sell wholesale.
    0:19:14 No one could take a mark down.
    0:19:19 So what I did at Ann Taylor is we did–
    0:19:24 I found some manufacturers today you get your own,
    0:19:28 but who can make goods, we designed them with them.
    0:19:32 And we had Ann Taylor’s studio label.
    0:19:34 Now, no one told me to do that.
    0:19:37 But you know, it’s the white space.
    0:19:38 Well, yeah.
    0:19:42 And then I don’t have to worry about meeting the competition.
    0:19:45 What’s going on in the business today, by the way,
    0:19:48 is if you look at pricing.
    0:19:50 First of all, everything’s on sale.
    0:19:53 I always give advice when I’m on a whatever.
    0:19:56 I say, before you give them the credit card,
    0:19:59 Google the item you want to buy.
    0:20:02 You’ll find it somewhere most of the time.
    0:20:06 Let’s go back to the gap before we get to the end of the gap.
    0:20:08 So you were the CEO from ’95 to 2002.
    0:20:12 How did you prevent the bureaucracy from building up
    0:20:14 over those seven years?
    0:20:19 You know, well, the bureaucracy is I’m all over everything.
    0:20:23 I took every call from a customer.
    0:20:27 And they’d be surprised about–
    0:20:33 and I say, if I can do it, you have to do it.
    0:20:36 But today, it doesn’t always work.
    0:20:39 I tell every story, customer stories,
    0:20:43 I would call customers.
    0:20:47 Anyone who called me, I got back to them.
    0:20:49 And now I do that.
    0:20:52 It’s a little bit of a payback because I never had anyone like that.
    0:20:55 What were the key learnings from the gap?
    0:20:58 Oh, every day, the key learnings.
    0:21:00 You must have a vision.
    0:21:03 You must be whatever’s defined as a good merchant.
    0:21:08 You must be spot on and be a pain in the ass
    0:21:11 because the best bosses.
    0:21:16 And I always say, hire your boss because that’s the one.
    0:21:20 And I never had bosses who I thought were the best,
    0:21:23 especially in– yeah, but I became the boss
    0:21:25 other than Don was my boss there.
    0:21:28 And I had to, you know, play that game with him
    0:21:33 because if you do what I do, and I wish you Steve does
    0:21:36 and you do what maybe all these other people do,
    0:21:39 you are always competing.
    0:21:41 You have to be competing.
    0:21:42 It’s relentless.
    0:21:44 And it goes with it.
    0:21:47 And if you’re not, a lot of people don’t compete.
    0:21:50 I know friends who run companies.
    0:21:52 They’re bureaucrats.
    0:21:55 I know because I know them.
    0:22:00 So Old Navy, you know how I started that?
    0:22:04 It’s my favorite, one of my favorite stories.
    0:22:06 So in the New York Times, I used to read it
    0:22:08 when it was a decent paper.
    0:22:12 Business section, I always like to read about business
    0:22:15 because I wanted to be who they all were.
    0:22:17 And then I realized, well, I didn’t realize
    0:22:21 for a long time who they were, but not what I wanted to be.
    0:22:27 So there was a little article buried on page four or five
    0:22:31 about Target, and that was then called Dayton Hudson.
    0:22:34 It was a very bureaucratic company
    0:22:37 that I knew that they did a lot of research
    0:22:40 and a lot of this and a lot of that.
    0:22:43 So, and then someone was quoted as saying
    0:22:48 it’s pretty much going to be a cheaper version of GAP.
    0:22:52 Weak the store opened, I flew out to Mall of America that week.
    0:22:54 I didn’t even tell anyone.
    0:22:57 But I said, well, fuck them.
    0:23:02 And I went out, Mall of America, I walked in the store.
    0:23:06 I was there no more than five minutes,
    0:23:12 and I said to myself, you know, you gotta, you know,
    0:23:14 only the paranoid survive.
    0:23:15 Well, that’s interesting, right?
    0:23:18 Because it’s a story of only the paranoid survive.
    0:23:21 And Andy Grove is the one who wrote that book.
    0:23:23 But it’s also a story of making sure
    0:23:24 that you’re touching the medium.
    0:23:26 So when you’re talking to customers,
    0:23:28 there’s no filter between you and the fee.
    0:23:30 When you’re flying to the store, there’s no filter.
    0:23:32 But you’re looking at the train.
    0:23:34 Somebody’s not telling you what it is.
    0:23:38 In corporations, most of the brass,
    0:23:40 they’re in their ivory tout.
    0:23:42 I remember in the department stores.
    0:23:44 They’re so far disconnected.
    0:23:48 Go on the selling floor, speak to someone.
    0:23:50 Plus, it’s decent.
    0:23:55 You know, people, for me, I identify with those people
    0:23:57 who aren’t the fancy people.
    0:24:01 You know, a funny story about this modern Xbox for my kids.
    0:24:06 It must have been, I don’t know, seven years ago for Christmas.
    0:24:09 And we’re opening it and we’re setting it up on Christmas.
    0:24:13 And I was like, the person who designed this Xbox experience
    0:24:15 doesn’t have kids.
    0:24:19 It took an hour and a half to play a game.
    0:24:21 From the time we plugged it in and turned it,
    0:24:23 it’s like, first, you got to do updates.
    0:24:25 Second, you got to sign up for all these accounts.
    0:24:26 Keep it simple.
    0:24:28 Stupid is the greatest lesson.
    0:24:33 My first week at the Gap, I put up signs.
    0:24:34 Keep it simple.
    0:24:35 I took out the stupid.
    0:24:40 Every desk in the corporation, people would talk a language to me.
    0:24:42 I didn’t know the language.
    0:24:44 I’ll never forget this.
    0:24:45 She was one woman.
    0:24:49 She’s in charge of whatever, planning and something.
    0:24:52 I didn’t know what she was talking about.
    0:24:56 And I just said, keep it simple to the point.
    0:25:02 You have to bring everything to its simplest common denominator.
    0:25:05 The best way to do that is to actually use your own product.
    0:25:06 Yeah.
    0:25:10 We did the P Jimmy’s pajama thing, which is a really fun thing.
    0:25:14 It’s going to be very good for him and us long term.
    0:25:20 And they call a boxer short.
    0:25:26 Well, their name for it was a short pajama pan.
    0:25:29 And they show me their new version.
    0:25:42 Now, it’s the third after the pant and the pajama set, they’re calling it the short pajama pan.
    0:25:43 Number three seller.
    0:25:47 And they show me this thing that they’re changing it.
    0:25:50 Now this is typical of what goes on.
    0:25:53 And I said, it’s the third best seller.
    0:25:55 You want to change it?
    0:25:58 I said, and it’s called a boxer short.
    0:26:00 It’s not called.
    0:26:04 I get a little impatient a lot.
    0:26:06 And then I do a little survey.
    0:26:09 I go around just to, I say, what do you call this?
    0:26:10 It’s a boxer short.
    0:26:11 Yeah.
    0:26:15 When you say the word boxer short, you don’t have to describe it.
    0:26:17 It is what everybody has an idea of what it is.
    0:26:20 Of course, everyone knows the elastic waist.
    0:26:26 And I said, continue that and you’re not doing this, whatever it was.
    0:26:30 And that’s what I do.
    0:26:32 And it’s funny.
    0:26:37 And they call things, I like to name things that say what it is.
    0:26:39 And I go through this all the time.
    0:26:41 They confuse people.
    0:26:46 I said, there’s certain names that you know what it is.
    0:26:48 Everybody wants to come up with something new.
    0:26:51 They don’t know, but they’re not logical.
    0:26:55 So what happened at the end of the gap in your tenure there?
    0:26:59 Oh, well, Steve Jobs, just to frame the conversation here.
    0:27:01 So Steve Jobs is on the board.
    0:27:02 He calls you.
    0:27:03 Yeah.
    0:27:04 Take me through this.
    0:27:07 Well, Steve Jobs joined the board.
    0:27:11 He was recruiting me to join his board about a year.
    0:27:12 Steve is very seductive.
    0:27:16 He doesn’t give up like a lot of people do what he does.
    0:27:26 And he called me one day and he said, I’ll join the gap board if you join my board deal.
    0:27:32 Because I knew Steve, you know, there’s no such thing as an independent director.
    0:27:36 You know, there’s a litmus test, not a relative.
    0:27:38 They don’t do business with you.
    0:27:47 But they ought to have on the test, not a close friend, not a college roommate, not a cousin, not whatever.
    0:27:52 Unless it’s, you know, if it’s a controlled company, you can do what you want.
    0:27:54 But independent directors.
    0:27:57 So I said, didn’t even think deal.
    0:28:01 I knew he would be Steve Jobs.
    0:28:03 He’s irreverent.
    0:28:05 He challenges things.
    0:28:08 He might be late, but I love the guy.
    0:28:10 What was he like as a board member?
    0:28:13 He was a troublemaker because he brought up things.
    0:28:15 I’d sit there, thank God.
    0:28:21 But he alienated people because, you know, it’s okay to alienate people.
    0:28:28 He had, but he didn’t, he really wasn’t a very paid attention board member.
    0:28:30 But I didn’t care.
    0:28:34 So he was on the board only about a year in the Yale.
    0:28:39 He wasn’t very popular, but I just, you know, guy was ill.
    0:28:40 He was dying.
    0:28:42 I just so admired him.
    0:28:45 And I really admired him a lot.
    0:28:52 Johnny Ive was his lunchmate, and I had, you know, Johnny and I became good friends.
    0:28:54 And Steve was whatever.
    0:28:57 So there’s a board meeting.
    0:29:00 I knew there was something going on.
    0:29:05 People, all of a sudden, you know, and you have a corporate.
    0:29:12 And they don’t, first of all, I never had a director who really understood the goods.
    0:29:17 You know, and, you know, if they came in, they didn’t like the name Old Navy.
    0:29:19 I got it off a bar in Paris.
    0:29:21 I was driving to the airport.
    0:29:24 I was fortunately in the back seat on the left.
    0:29:28 And looking out, I said to Maggie, she was in marketing.
    0:29:32 I go to Paris, you know, you go to shop, you get ideas creative.
    0:29:39 So I see Marquis with a lot of neon lights, and it says Old Navy.
    0:29:42 I said, Maggie, that’s the name.
    0:29:47 We needed a name for Old Navy, which, by the way, is about $11 billion business today.
    0:29:49 That’s the name.
    0:29:51 They didn’t like the name.
    0:29:53 Long story short.
    0:29:54 Two naming.
    0:29:59 I don’t like agencies, and I don’t like consultants.
    0:30:04 And Old Navy, by the way, that was started the whole other story.
    0:30:05 So let’s go back to the firing.
    0:30:07 So Jobs is calling you.
    0:30:08 Okay.
    0:30:11 So this is, we had a bad year.
    0:30:14 So Jobs was not at that board meeting.
    0:30:19 I presented at that board meeting the turnaround assortment.
    0:30:24 I looked at Banana Republic, Gap, and Old Navy.
    0:30:27 It was a tough year, I think, in the marketplace.
    0:30:30 They weren’t looking at me.
    0:30:32 I get home about nine.
    0:30:35 He says, Don just told me you’re getting fired.
    0:30:37 They had to tell him.
    0:30:42 He said, they didn’t tell me until now because they were worried I would tell you.
    0:30:45 And of course I would tell you.
    0:30:50 But nine was the deadline they had for whatever.
    0:30:52 And I called Don.
    0:30:54 He brushed me off very quickly.
    0:30:57 Come in at eight o’clock, dot, dot, dot.
    0:30:59 So board meeting the next day.
    0:31:03 He hands me a one note, whatever.
    0:31:05 That was my last day.
    0:31:07 So you end up going on the Apple board.
    0:31:09 Steve recruited you.
    0:31:12 He seduced you for over a year to join the Apple board.
    0:31:13 Yeah.
    0:31:16 And I say that would all fund this for him.
    0:31:19 What was the Apple board meetings like?
    0:31:22 And what contributions did you make to retail there?
    0:31:29 Well, you know, I designed the first store with him because he designed an ugly store.
    0:31:33 And we went in and I told him, get a warehouse.
    0:31:37 Build a store so we can design it together.
    0:31:38 We did a gap.
    0:31:41 You have a store before you open it up.
    0:31:43 So I went in.
    0:31:45 It’s very simple.
    0:31:48 I said it was too charge key.
    0:31:54 He said simple, a screen to show the movie or whatever it is.
    0:31:58 So we designed the store and that’s the store.
    0:32:00 It’s still the same store.
    0:32:01 And the stores became iconic.
    0:32:04 What’s the difference between the first version and the one that we sort of…
    0:32:06 Oh, no, the first version never opened up.
    0:32:09 No, but I mean the first version you saw, like what…
    0:32:12 It’s like comparing apples and oranges.
    0:32:16 But I always like to talk about this because we always see sort of the end product.
    0:32:19 You know, we never see the messiness of the…
    0:32:22 What I do, I try to explain this.
    0:32:25 I have a photograph in my mind.
    0:32:29 It’s, I go into a shop.
    0:32:32 It paints a picture or it doesn’t.
    0:32:34 One bad color in a great painting.
    0:32:36 I’m not a big art collector.
    0:32:42 I love nice pictures, but that changes, throws off the whole painting.
    0:32:47 It’s like the wheels, the ugly wheels on a Mustang.
    0:32:50 And I mean that every car now has ugly wheels.
    0:32:52 I can’t get over it.
    0:32:57 You know, you see the wheels, it’s like having a bad button on a sweater like this.
    0:32:59 This is one of the best sellers.
    0:33:04 And if you put an ugly button on this, that’s what you notice.
    0:33:11 And I say never give a customer a reason not to buy something.
    0:33:13 It’s one of my rules, you know.
    0:33:17 So why do people buy, or is it they just don’t have a reason not to buy?
    0:33:21 Most people, they don’t get it.
    0:33:23 You know, the logo business.
    0:33:27 And by the way, I learned this last week, they call it dupes.
    0:33:28 You know that?
    0:33:33 All the designer copies are called dupes like in duplicates.
    0:33:35 Hot business today.
    0:33:41 Because people say, well, they don’t, you know, the LVs, who the hell knows if it’s real or fake.
    0:33:43 You look at all, you know.
    0:33:49 Well, it’s interesting because you sort of had, I don’t want to say envied because that’s the wrong word.
    0:33:53 But you liked Ralph Lauren, who had logos.
    0:33:56 And at J Crew, you did away with logo.
    0:33:58 Yeah, well, Ralph had the horse.
    0:34:01 And that was, I remember, I was a buyer at Bloomingdale’s.
    0:34:05 Ralph had the horse when he was just started.
    0:34:07 And it was prestigious.
    0:34:09 The horse was prestigious.
    0:34:16 With J Crew, one of the most fascinating things to me is you took, you did something that’s incredibly rare in retail,
    0:34:19 which was you took a brand that was known for discounting.
    0:34:20 Same with Gap.
    0:34:23 And you made it high end.
    0:34:25 Well, Gap was, Gap was.
    0:34:26 Was it?
    0:34:27 I don’t know the early part of the gap.
    0:34:28 Gap.
    0:34:29 Well, you probably.
    0:34:32 I started there in 1984.
    0:34:33 Yeah, yeah.
    0:34:34 I don’t know that.
    0:34:36 It was a shithole with the flesh.
    0:34:39 A disaster, culturally in every other way.
    0:34:41 It was all on sale.
    0:34:46 What’s the playbook then to take, I mean, they did it with Restoration Hardware too.
    0:34:47 There’s a couple of other brands.
    0:34:48 Gary, I know Gary.
    0:34:52 But the base rate of success is pretty close to zero in doing this.
    0:34:56 Well, it’s vision, imagination.
    0:34:59 I don’t have any doctor nose.
    0:35:02 I call them doctor nose telling you it’s not going to work.
    0:35:07 If I look old Navy, I went out and I did it.
    0:35:08 It’s interesting.
    0:35:11 You make decisions mostly on your gut.
    0:35:14 And research backing it up.
    0:35:17 Well, I was just going to say it, but you’re always gathering information.
    0:35:20 Are you pattern matching when you make decisions?
    0:35:22 Well, it’s funny you use that word.
    0:35:26 The whole business is recognizing patterns.
    0:35:30 It’s, you know, there’s patterns that go on.
    0:35:34 And for me, I have to preempt the pattern.
    0:35:36 And then I push the team.
    0:35:39 Like right now, personalization.
    0:35:46 Two years ago, we had painted dogs on a tote bag.
    0:35:51 18 of them that day, gone.
    0:35:56 Two years ago, I have still in the last two years.
    0:36:04 I want to be, I want personalization to be who, what we do with personalizes the goods.
    0:36:11 You know, so we have, I don’t have my bag here, but painted initials, cool.
    0:36:18 The dogs, painted dogs, but I’m trying to get people to move.
    0:36:21 And it’s hard.
    0:36:26 Is the reason that focus groups are so difficult in retail?
    0:36:31 Because people are telling you what they want, but they actually have to be led.
    0:36:33 They’re difficult for me.
    0:36:35 Everyone else does them.
    0:36:37 But they don’t seem to work.
    0:36:38 I don’t.
    0:36:39 Or do they?
    0:36:40 I don’t know.
    0:36:41 Look, I don’t know.
    0:36:43 It’s not what I do for a living.
    0:36:47 I do, I say to see around corners, you have to have a vision.
    0:36:54 It’s interesting because the outliers on both ends, positive and negative, don’t use focus groups.
    0:36:56 But everybody’s sort of in them.
    0:36:59 So it’s almost like a guaranteed average in a way.
    0:37:06 The world, this is funny, a friend sends me 20 plus page article two weeks ago.
    0:37:10 Talking about how average the world is today.
    0:37:12 I totally, I called him.
    0:37:14 I said, wow, you are on.
    0:37:16 He talked about cars.
    0:37:18 He talked about designs.
    0:37:19 He talked this article.
    0:37:23 He didn’t write it, but the world’s average.
    0:37:30 And you have to be not average if you want to do what you do.
    0:37:33 For me, you break the rules.
    0:37:40 But the rules are, common knowledge isn’t that common as it is.
    0:37:43 And I’m an anti-Athari guy.
    0:37:44 I don’t like that.
    0:37:49 I don’t like to, I’ll never forget when I used to work in the shipping room.
    0:37:51 I had an idea.
    0:37:56 You know, I used to ticket, you know how you see those hang tags on buttons.
    0:38:03 So I used to walk around bending down with the racks of coats like this.
    0:38:05 I took a rolling chair.
    0:38:07 I’m going down the aisle.
    0:38:11 It was like, my father got so angry at me.
    0:38:14 He wasn’t my, who knows who my boss was.
    0:38:17 But that’s what happens in corporations.
    0:38:20 I, no one wants to change the rules in a way.
    0:38:22 Not that he was a corporate guy.
    0:38:23 Well, this is interesting.
    0:38:26 This is a fascinating sort of like nuance here because in a corporation,
    0:38:28 you can’t get fired for following the rules.
    0:38:31 You know, I just follow what you told me to do.
    0:38:34 So I’m absolved of all responsibility or judgment, right?
    0:38:37 Like nobody’s going to get fired for following the rules.
    0:38:40 I mean, you do at the CEO level, but aside from that, you’re basically…
    0:38:44 Well, you have to, you can follow the rules.
    0:38:49 On the other hand, you have to have a drive in you that’s creative and can make changes.
    0:38:53 When I worked at the department stores, you know, I’ll never forget,
    0:38:57 I had some simple ideas for the financial person.
    0:39:01 You know, none of them, they didn’t ask people.
    0:39:06 I asked people, you know, they know young people don’t have any baggage.
    0:39:09 Well, this is fascinating because you say you’re anti-authority,
    0:39:12 but when you say that, what I hear is you’re not anti-authority.
    0:39:15 You’re really a rule breaker who’s constantly questioning things,
    0:39:17 which comes across as anti-authority.
    0:39:18 A hundred percent.
    0:39:21 But you’re vacuuming up information from every available source.
    0:39:27 And I, when I hear something two or three times, I bring it to work immediately.
    0:39:30 Every weekend, I have a Monday morning weekend update.
    0:39:31 What is it?
    0:39:37 It’s a combination of me seeing things that are an idea.
    0:39:41 I look through, not that I like the fashion magazines,
    0:39:46 but I look through every picture on monthly.
    0:39:50 And if there’s a picture I like, I cut it out.
    0:39:53 Last weekend, it was a great picture.
    0:39:58 It was a designer, I think it was Fendi.
    0:40:01 And they just showed the woman’s heads.
    0:40:10 And they had a sweatshirt on, each of them, in four in bright colors.
    0:40:12 So I cut that out.
    0:40:21 And I said, this is something we will do while we are doing hooded sweatshirts in bright colors.
    0:40:24 And then I always do detective work.
    0:40:26 I’m addicted to detective shows.
    0:40:31 Great, great detectives solve cold cases.
    0:40:32 There’s such a difference.
    0:40:37 Anyway, I then, I asked someone who I know, I said,
    0:40:40 are there any companies we can do a collaboration with?
    0:40:43 We do collaborations, we get together.
    0:40:46 And we did it at Jake, we kind of invented it.
    0:40:51 Now everyone’s, they’re all collaborating with all the famous brands.
    0:40:53 So it doesn’t make it unique.
    0:40:58 But anyway, so she mentioned this company in England.
    0:41:06 I went online, looked at it, and they had a hoodie hat, a bakalava, whatever it’s called.
    0:41:08 So I said, we’re going to do that hat.
    0:41:13 We sell a million cash, we are hats, we’re famous for that.
    0:41:19 And by the way, being famous for something drives businesses because you’re dominant.
    0:41:22 Hermes uses this with the Birkin bag.
    0:41:24 I mean, that drives almost all their other business.
    0:41:27 Well, it’s funny with Hermes.
    0:41:32 I used to get Peggy when I could afford it.
    0:41:41 And I was a young guy who had money and I may start to afford things in my 40s, which is young now to me.
    0:41:53 But I collected for Peggy twice a year, anniversary, and birthday I got Birkin bags, or the Kelly bag, or whatever.
    0:42:01 But people, you know, I think designers, so anyway, she has a beautiful collection now.
    0:42:05 She doesn’t wear them because she thinks they’re old ladies, although she’s an old lady.
    0:42:08 And she doesn’t want to wear them on the streets today.
    0:42:13 You know, like watches, they see your watch and they come up to you.
    0:42:19 But anyway, Birkin bags now, they’re dupes of that.
    0:42:30 And I said, now growing up in the Bronx, I didn’t know from fancy, but growing up in the Bronx, I liked things.
    0:42:36 When I bought my first pair of Gucci buckle loafers, I was probably early 30s.
    0:42:38 I used to go to the factories.
    0:42:41 So I went to the Gucci store in Florence.
    0:42:44 I got those shoes, boom, Bada Bing.
    0:42:51 Now, you don’t know the difference between the dupe and the real, and you get ripped off.
    0:42:52 Who cares?
    0:42:54 You know, Hermes bags.
    0:42:56 I mean, Peggy’s tired of them.
    0:42:58 I mean, don’t leave that on.
    0:42:59 No, no, I get that.
    0:43:01 How much of retail do you think is theater?
    0:43:05 Theater.
    0:43:12 Well, you know, Stanley Marcus at Neiman Marcus was known for that.
    0:43:17 I don’t think it’s, you know, the hottest supermarket in America now.
    0:43:19 You had an year one.
    0:43:20 Yeah.
    0:43:24 I was in one in LA about three or four weeks ago.
    0:43:26 I don’t call anything theater.
    0:43:33 Theater is great product, looking like a painting and going in for me.
    0:43:36 I never had Old Navy, by the way.
    0:43:40 It was an amazing business in its day.
    0:43:45 I had Schwinn bikes around the escalator.
    0:43:48 We sold out of them very quickly.
    0:43:53 And then the guy I knew who owned, you know, he’s an investor, not a close friend,
    0:44:01 but Schwinn decided not to sell us because we weren’t buying them from dealer.
    0:44:08 But the business first apparel business to hit a, what’s the number?
    0:44:10 I think they hit a billion dollars.
    0:44:11 That’s it.
    0:44:13 The first one in apparel.
    0:44:15 But now I’m sure there’s many others.
    0:44:25 But I just follow the guidance of, but I also absorb detectives.
    0:44:26 I always come in every day.
    0:44:28 I see these fends.
    0:44:30 I’m addicted to true crimes.
    0:44:31 You’re always gathering information.
    0:44:32 You’re always looking.
    0:44:36 You’re always questioning and probing, which helps you develop the patterns.
    0:44:37 Yeah.
    0:44:39 And I see a picture.
    0:44:40 Yeah.
    0:44:43 Who do you think are the great retailers today?
    0:44:47 I don’t like to name competitors, but I’ll tell you something.
    0:44:48 Well, TJ Maxx.
    0:44:49 Okay.
    0:44:56 I always named Carol because Carol Myrowitz, TJ Maxx is the honest discount.
    0:44:59 And she’s a great merchant.
    0:45:08 The only thing is you have to keep changing acts the wrong word, but you got to keep changing
    0:45:11 and seeing down the road.
    0:45:13 And I have these ideas.
    0:45:16 But you can only do that if you touch the territory.
    0:45:20 Like when you hopped on the plane and you went to the store, when you’re constantly talking
    0:45:24 to everybody, when you’re getting all the information sources, that’s how you rapidly
    0:45:26 adjust because you’re not looking at a…
    0:45:37 You are not curious in any field, whether it’s nonprofit, profit, selling cars and all
    0:45:38 that.
    0:45:45 Any field, product is always driving and product is about emotion, in my opinion.
    0:45:50 Someone said this the other day and I kind of took it on myself to say it.
    0:45:58 I have a love affair with the companies that I’ve been involved with, made well.
    0:46:01 You know what happened, how I got that name.
    0:46:07 So David Mullen, who’s a great wash guy, unfortunately, he’s an old friend.
    0:46:15 10 or 15 years ago when I was a J crew, well, you know how old Navy and the whole concept
    0:46:16 I told you.
    0:46:26 So David has a logo, made well since 1937, he shows it to me, it was actually the logo.
    0:46:27 He said, “What do you think?”
    0:46:29 I said, “It’s fantastic.”
    0:46:32 He said, “Well, do you want to buy it?”
    0:46:34 I said, “Yeah, but what about you?”
    0:46:36 We can’t afford it, whatever.
    0:46:37 I bought the name.
    0:46:46 I owned the name and when we went public at J crew, then we did made well.
    0:46:52 And I had a vision, I loved work clothes then, like Carhartt and all that.
    0:46:59 But I had a vision for it, but you can’t do anything well unless you have the right team.
    0:47:04 So we struggled for the first three or four years, we were going to do men’s and women’s
    0:47:07 and I decided let’s get rid of men’s.
    0:47:12 Now I didn’t have anyone to talk to about this other than myself, but I never thought
    0:47:14 about it that way.
    0:47:23 So we got rid of men’s and then some sack who works with me and us, creative guy, was
    0:47:30 at a J crew for 15 years and he left for a year, hired him back and became the creative
    0:47:35 director of made well, boom, boom, boom.
    0:47:41 And made well was a great company until it wasn’t, you know, when we had a two billion
    0:47:47 dollar, well, don’t even get me started with selling companies because the mercenaries.
    0:47:51 And by the way, gap, you know, when I left there, I didn’t say that no one called me
    0:47:58 on the board 18 years, hello, can you believe that except for Steve who didn’t think you
    0:48:00 should be fired in the first place.
    0:48:01 Exactly.
    0:48:02 Exactly.
    0:48:03 Yeah.
    0:48:07 What makes something a classic look, you know, it’s a good question.
    0:48:15 We say, if you know, you know, I wear clothes that have no expiration date.
    0:48:19 This shoe, I found it in Paris.
    0:48:22 It’s all in an American company.
    0:48:32 And I must have been 40, probably 40 years ago, it was my favorite store, Fastenab, until
    0:48:38 they were bought out by a big American department store, then it’s over.
    0:48:40 So this shoe is from Alden.
    0:48:46 I’ve been wearing not this one shoe, we used to buy from Alden at J Crew and my good friend
    0:48:51 Todd Snyder, who’s a men’s designer, he buys from Alden.
    0:48:56 And I asked him that a year ago, I said, can you ask them to do a special this shoe again
    0:48:57 for me?
    0:48:59 I ordered 10 of them.
    0:49:00 That’s awesome.
    0:49:03 And this, and I wear another one.
    0:49:06 This jeans never go out of style.
    0:49:11 But as long as you don’t wear the big ones, the skinny ones, these are cashmere socks
    0:49:16 that we started doing at J Crew, they, whatever.
    0:49:18 And now we do them.
    0:49:26 This is clothes, this scarf, it’s 40 years old, Michael Drake was a good friend, nice
    0:49:29 to buy from him in London.
    0:49:30 His collection.
    0:49:33 There’s a Michael Drake now, but it’s not the same.
    0:49:38 I have about 20 versions of this, I bought them wholesale because, you know, and this
    0:49:48 sweater, this is our third year at Alex Mill, but forever.
    0:49:55 And it’s cashmere and our price is on cashmere, a good, oh, I only do vintage watches because
    0:50:00 I like vintage and old is new today.
    0:50:03 The vintage business is this way, and it’s unique.
    0:50:09 You’re not like buying, you’re not going to see, well, a hooded sweatshirt never goes
    0:50:10 out of style now.
    0:50:11 That’s a novelty.
    0:50:13 So you know.
    0:50:16 I love this idea clothes that have no expiration date.
    0:50:17 No expiration date.
    0:50:18 Right.
    0:50:19 No expiration date.
    0:50:23 Farnham Street, the website that I run is about knowledge that has no expiration date.
    0:50:24 Really?
    0:50:26 The timeless wisdom.
    0:50:36 Timeless, and it’s whatever I wear, and it’s things, and I didn’t warn this.
    0:50:41 Everything I buy, and it’s internal to me.
    0:50:48 You know, it’s like if someone wears something, oh, that’s the guy with the purple shirt or
    0:50:52 that’s the car with the ugly hubcaps.
    0:50:58 I like the screed, I like style, and I like a uniform.
    0:51:04 That’s what I do, and I wear the same Alex Mill, this, you know, slub t-shirt, blue every
    0:51:05 day.
    0:51:06 Perfect.
    0:51:09 You know, I’ve always had a uniform.
    0:51:13 We always end the interview with the same question, which is, what does success look
    0:51:14 like to you?
    0:51:18 I think what it looks like is a couple of things.
    0:51:32 If you can impact people’s lives in a positive way, that to me is the best sign of success.
    0:51:40 Of course, and if I could also be very pleased with myself, that’s another sign.
    0:51:48 But I think the biggest compliments I get are from people—you know, we had that, I think
    0:51:52 you knew about the Gap reunion, did you mention that to me?
    0:51:53 No.
    0:52:05 150 or 60 people were there, Ken Pilot, who used to work with me, and I don’t—success,
    0:52:09 it’s not being rich only.
    0:52:16 It’s not even being rich, because I know successful scientists or successful whatever.
    0:52:18 But I think it’s impacting people’s lives.
    0:52:27 My biggest compliment, I say this, I’ve said it on CMBC, is when I’m called a mensch, you
    0:52:28 know what that word is.
    0:52:31 Why don’t you explain it for everybody so everybody knows it?
    0:52:35 Manch is in Yiddish.
    0:52:47 Manch is like a nice person, normal, hamisher, down to earth, and I like talking to people
    0:52:55 in a parallel way, and I don’t talk down to people because I appreciate who I am and
    0:52:56 what I do.
    0:53:02 Now, no one escapes, you know, I go through certain mood issues, of course, I’m always
    0:53:10 trying to better myself, but I think success is—it’s just not about money, most people
    0:53:16 might say that, but you have to be—I’m very pleased with what I’ve done, more so
    0:53:22 over the last few years, because I have changed people’s lives, because I had a reunion two
    0:53:34 weeks ago last week with the field team at Gap, 15 to 20 of us, and they all thanked me
    0:53:42 and they said they made their lives much better, and that’s success.
    0:53:48 Thanks for listening and learning with us.
    0:53:56 For a complete list of episodes, show notes, transcripts, and more, go to fs.blog/podcast
    0:53:59 or just Google “The Knowledge Project”.
    0:54:03 Recently I’ve started to record my reflections and thoughts about the interview after the
    0:54:04 interview.
    0:54:09 I sit down, highlight the key moments that stood out for me, and I also talk about other
    0:54:14 connections to episodes and sort of what’s got me pondering that I maybe haven’t quite
    0:54:15 figured out.
    0:54:18 This is available to supporting members of the Knowledge Project.
    0:54:24 You can go to fs.blog/membership, check out the show notes for a link, and you can sign
    0:54:28 up today, and my reflections will just be available in your private podcast feed.
    0:54:32 You’ll also skip all the ads at the front of the episode.
    0:54:36 The Furnham Street blog is also where you can learn more about my new book, Clear Thinking,
    0:54:40 turning ordinary moments into extraordinary results.
    0:54:44 It’s a transformative guide that hands you the tools to master your fate, sharpen your
    0:54:49 decision making, and set yourself up for unparalleled success.
    0:54:52 Learn more at fs.blog/clear.
    0:54:53 Until next time.
    0:54:57 [Music]
    0:54:59 you
    0:55:08 [BLANK_AUDIO]

    This episode will transform how you think about style, aspiration, and the art of knowing what people want before they know it themselves. From working in department stores to advising Steve Jobs on Apple’s retail strategy when it didn’t have retail at all, Drexler’s career traces the evolution of American retail itself: from local shops to mall dominance, from catalog to digital, from mass market to personalization. Whether you’re an aspiring entrepreneur, a retail enthusiast, or someone looking to build a brand that stands the test of time, Mickey shares invaluable insights on what separates truly successful brands from the rest.

    Mickey Drexler is the chairman of Alex Mill. Before that, he was the CEO of J. Crew and sat on the Board of Directors of Apple. He founded Old Navy and Madewell, and served as the CEO of Gap from 1983–2002.

    Learn why gaining real-world insights—and not just reports or data—is crucial to staying ahead of the competition.

    Newsletter – The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at fs.blog/newsletter

    Upgrade — If you want to hear my thoughts and reflections at the end of the episode, join our membership: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠ and get your own private feed.

    Watch on YouTube: @tkppodcast

    (02:16) How Mickey Drexler became Mickey Drexler

    (07:04) Lessons from redefining Gap

    (12:47) Merchant, defined

    (15:17) How Drexler evaluates stores

    (19:20) Lessons from running Gap

    (21:19) On Old Navy

    (27:26) On Steve Jobs and Working with Apple

    (33:00) Re-making J. Crew

    (37:00) Drexler’s superpower

    (43:40) Current-day retailers who are great

    (45:10) How Drexler got “Madewell”

    (47:15) What makes something a classic look?

    (50:20) On success

    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

  • Raging Moderates: Trump’s Short-Lived Trade War

    AI transcript
    0:00:06 When you sit on your aero plan points, it’s like you’re sitting on your next trip like a sunny getaway by the sea
    0:00:14 But instead you’re sitting on your aero plan points. So the only sea you get to sit in is a sea of traffic
    0:00:19 Use your points and go from smelling your ocean breeze air freshener
    0:00:22 To smelling the ocean breeze
    0:00:29 So stop sitting on your next trip and start enjoying your aero plan points
    0:00:30 On
    0:00:36 Explain it to me. We treat every single question you ask us with the utmost professionalism
    0:00:39 What was your initial reaction when you read that question?
    0:00:44 Honestly, like my gut initial reaction was like, oh, honey, like yeah
    0:00:48 There are no bad questions
    0:00:51 But there are some that are really hard to answer
    0:00:58 This week on explain it to me. So gall Samuel tells us why those are the ones she gravitates towards new episodes
    0:01:01 Every Wednesday, wherever you get your podcasts
    0:01:11 This isn’t your grandpa’s finance podcast, it’s Vivian to your rich BFF and host of the net worth and chill podcast
    0:01:16 This is money talk. That’s actually fun actually relatable and will actually make you money
    0:01:21 I’m breaking down investments side hustles and wealth strategies. No boring spreadsheets
    0:01:25 Just real talk that’ll have you leveling up your financial game with amazing guests like Glenda Baker
    0:01:28 There’s never been any house that I’ve sold in the last 32 years
    0:01:32 That’s not worth more today than it was the day that I sold it
    0:01:38 This is a money podcast that you’ll actually want to listen to follow net worth and chill wherever you listen to podcasts your bank account
    0:01:40 Well, thank you later
    0:01:50 Welcome to raging moderates, I’m Scott Galloway and I’m Jessica Tarla. So first off just because we’re capitalists here
    0:01:54 And there’s not anything important going on in the world. It’s important to run a commercials
    0:02:01 We we start here, but effectively little insight into the podcast world the RSS feed where people subscribe
    0:02:09 Is what advertisers look at and right now we’re at 42,000 and once you get to 50,000 for some reason the advertising industrial complex
    0:02:11 It’s decided then they can start
    0:02:18 Advertising with us and keep in mind we still have ads, but there are those shitty rotational ads that have a stranger reading them
    0:02:29 And if you want just tarl up to tell you why athletic greens gives her that radiant look or why I am so much better now that I have zbiotics which
    0:02:32 Helps me go out and drink
    0:02:33 recklessly in the next day
    0:02:38 I don’t feel as shitty both ads that we will do if you’d rather hit your host readovers
    0:02:45 Please hit the subscribe button on our both on YouTube and on our dedicated raging moderates feed
    0:02:48 We would really appreciate it. Please do it now
    0:02:55 We will tell you when we hit 50,000, but let’s try to get there this week. Oh my god. That was so commercial
    0:03:02 Jess. It was a good one though. Pretty good. Yeah, I liked it. All right, let’s move on to banter. How are you?
    0:03:04 I’m pretty depressed. Are you?
    0:03:06 well, I
    0:03:13 Think maybe democracy is ending I was last week you were so over your skis or I thought so and I was like hey
    0:03:19 It’s okay. Let’s figure out what to work with the other side on and this weekend. I was just melting down the whole time and then
    0:03:26 Luca Donchich got traded to the Lakers in the middle of the night. I don’t do you care about the NBA at all?
    0:03:29 I hundred percent don’t care. I don’t even know who Luca Donchich is that is not true
    0:03:33 Is that a Serbian tennis player who is I have no idea who that is seriously. He is
    0:03:39 Slovenian isn’t he is a basketball player who is on the Dallas Mavericks. It’s probably gonna be an MVP
    0:03:46 Five-time All-Star. He’s amazing. Anyway, there was a tweet Saturday night saying Luca Donchich to the Lakers for Anthony Davis
    0:03:54 Which is just an absurd trade and I thought that the reporter had been hacked because it was so ludicrous woke up Sunday morning
    0:03:59 And it’s true in the trade deadline for everyone is February 6th. Anyway, just you know
    0:04:00 That was crazy
    0:04:05 But you don’t care and a decent number of female viewers on YouTube right now have decided you are in fact the perfect woman
    0:04:13 That you not only bring a lot of intelligence and you’re obviously very attractive, but you understand the latest in basketball trades
    0:04:16 You literally are I couldn’t do I’m bad with like salary caps and stuff
    0:04:20 But I have no idea who that is and I don’t unless it’s Cole Palmer. I don’t care
    0:04:25 Well, he was on the Mavericks, which your pal Mark Cuban used to own so I’ve contextualized it
    0:04:31 I’ve made it a little personal for you. No, don’t care. Anyway, what did you do? What did I do this weekend? Really?
    0:04:39 My favorite weekend did absolutely nothing. My boy was home my 7-year-old comes home on the weekends from boarding school and my 14-year-old
    0:04:46 On the weekends. He turns into he’s kind of difficult. I think I don’t know what it is about the dynamic on the weekends. He’s tough and
    0:04:50 Is it because his older brother’s home? I think that might have something to do with it
    0:04:58 And then we went to a one-year-old’s birthday party snooze around my that’s my wheelhouse. I keep telling this where I live
    0:05:04 Yeah, yeah, I’m out of that. I’m out of that stage, but they’re nice people and I knew they’d have a bar
    0:05:10 So it was fun. And then what did I do? Did I have any fun Saturday night? You know really?
    0:05:14 Boring weekend didn’t even watch any primarily games. I’m headed to
    0:05:19 After this I’m bombing to the airport and I’m headed to Orlando for the real fun of all places
    0:05:25 I assume speaking gig and not Disney World or maybe a speaking gig at Disney World years again see above
    0:05:29 Like you’re not it’s smart you I am doing a speaking gig
    0:05:36 Yeah, it’s Disney World which and that’s the first for me. Yeah, I’m doing a speaking. Yeah, I love Disney
    0:05:39 I want I can so we would have and you should keep that to yourself
    0:05:42 But anyways, go ahead if we get our new 8,000 subscribers
    0:05:47 It will be because I am the Luca Donchich ex Disney World gal
    0:05:52 I think Disney is so fun and I can’t wait to take Cleo who’s three
    0:05:54 I’ve heard like four is really the sweet spot
    0:05:57 But there’s a lot that she could still do. It’s the happiest place on earth
    0:05:59 I think it’s a seventh ring of hell for most of us
    0:06:02 you have to take your kids there and
    0:06:06 364 days a year I
    0:06:10 Under contribute to this whole parenting thing and then one day a year
    0:06:15 I take or you see because now they’re a little too old now they go to universal universalists for teenagers
    0:06:19 But Disney was for kids. I would take my two boys and six of their friends
    0:06:26 To Disney for the weekend and that as far as I’m concerned alone. Yeah, just me or you have another
    0:06:29 There might be I might be able to rope another guy into the seventh ring
    0:06:31 Just so we can complain to each other
    0:06:37 But that that as far as I’m concerned that compensates for my negligent parenting the rest of the year
    0:06:40 I think that I I’m I can totally see
    0:06:44 That you enjoy it. I don’t understand it
    0:06:49 But I can totally see it. I think that’s most of the male-female dynamic frankly
    0:06:54 It’s so awful. I can see it, but I don’t understand it and I still want to hang with it, right?
    0:07:01 You’re like, I will say this when I was at was it Walt Disney or was it Disneyland or Walt Disney World?
    0:07:06 They have that princess thing where you sign up your little girl and she goes in and they make her up
    0:07:11 And they put wings on her and a little princess fairy thing. I think it’s at both but world
    0:07:18 And then they have that little area where she’s introduced and they have lights and smoke and she comes out
    0:07:23 I sat there for 15 minutes while my kids were going on Space Mountain or something and
    0:07:32 Watch the most beautiful little girls come out and you they come out like they’re floating and I thought oh my god
    0:07:36 Disney like I made me want to buy Disney stock as emotional as I am
    0:07:44 It was these little girls you could tell they were thinking about this all year and they picked out their outfit and they do such an amazing job
    0:07:46 It really is
    0:07:49 It really is incredible. But just to bring us back to reality
    0:07:55 One of the I had one of those moments that made me feel very depressed about income inequality
    0:07:59 And I’m on the right side of that trade. So this is a story of privilege
    0:08:02 but I took the kids and
    0:08:06 The ride avatar
    0:08:08 It was a three hour wait
    0:08:15 So you could pass out the movie avatar on an iPad and people could watch it before they actually got on the ride
    0:08:17 and
    0:08:24 You just saw so many families in line holding their kids asleep and I thought this is borderline abusive
    0:08:28 To create something that parents have to go to and the majority people can’t
    0:08:33 And I did one of those VIP tours where you pay thousands of dollars
    0:08:35 and you
    0:08:41 Roll by the entire line and then the person at the front of the line operating the ride gives you a hand signal in case you want to go twice
    0:08:45 And I remember thinking at some point the people in the line
    0:08:47 It goes planted at the apes and they kill us all
    0:08:53 Because this is so out of control the disparity between the life
    0:08:58 The 99.9 of americans have to have to lead
    0:09:02 And the rest of us who’ve gotten you know, really lucky
    0:09:10 Anyways, I it was one of those moments. I thought this is weird. This is uncomfortable. Anyways, that’s my Disney story
    0:09:17 Okay, Jess in today’s episode we’re discussing chaos reigning across the federal government chaos of the right word
    0:09:22 Trump launching a trade war with tariffs and democrats elect a new chair to lead their party
    0:09:28 That’s kind of a snooze the first two we can jazz it up and be fun. It’s going to be hard to make that sexy
    0:09:30 All right, let’s get into it trump
    0:09:35 The trump administration through the government into total chaos with a surprise spending freeze
    0:09:39 They cut off funding for things including school lunches college financial aid and medical research
    0:09:44 Then just as quickly as it appeared the freeze was blocked by federal judge only for the white house to insist
    0:09:47 They weren’t actually backing down leaving everyone even more confused
    0:09:52 But that was just sort of the first ending here trump has been on a signing spree
    0:09:56 Rolling out executive orders targeting schools trans kids and immigrants
    0:10:03 Even tried to blame a deadly plane crash on di and on top of that his administration sent a mass email offering millions of federal employees
    0:10:07 A chance to resign now and still get paid through september
    0:10:11 Workers were stunned legal experts are flummoxed
    0:10:16 And no one’s really sure if this is even legal. Jess. I mean this sincerely
    0:10:20 Where should we start? I spent a lot of time
    0:10:24 prepping for this conversation and
    0:10:28 dealing with that question explicitly like what do I think is the most egregious
    0:10:30 example
    0:10:34 Of the overreach that’s going on of the constitutional crisis
    0:10:38 That I believe we are at the beginnings of having you know an unelected
    0:10:45 bureaucrat with access to all of our most sensitive information and turning on and off government contracts
    0:10:46 um
    0:10:50 You know plane crashes where 67 people lost their lives
    0:10:54 That the president and his cabinet seemed woefully unprepared
    0:11:02 To deal with or to even be able to express the right sentiments to the public and I assume to the grieving families as well
    0:11:04 um, I don’t
    0:11:05 know
    0:11:10 It’s almost feels like you should just go in chronological order of catastrophe
    0:11:17 um, but I do think because we were recording this on monday god knows what tomorrow will look like that
    0:11:21 what doge is doing with
    0:11:24 You know purging the fbi the doj
    0:11:28 um, and then shutting down the
    0:11:30 usaid
    0:11:36 Site it’s now you can still access it off the secretary of state site at state.gov. Um, but
    0:11:43 I think we should probably start there because it’s so representative of the fact that
    0:11:49 We don’t have three co-equal branches of the government anymore. What elan musk is doing is completely
    0:11:58 Unprecedented and it seems like he has unfettered access to anything that he wants plus the five or six 19 to 24 year olds
    0:12:01 That are running doge with him. I saw this tweet that I thought was so funny
    0:12:07 So the private information of every american is now in the hands of six guys not old enough to rent a car
    0:12:11 Well, you’re not laughing so you didn’t think it was that funny, but it’s
    0:12:17 It’s crazy what’s going on. Yeah, it feels like the high sparrow and his acolytes
    0:12:22 I don’t know if you watch game of thrones but we already talked about this and I don’t and I told you that and I have two daughters
    0:12:26 And you need to start okay, it’s just start just trust me on this
    0:12:32 Look, this is just taking it in order trying to my mom. You say, how do you need an elephant one bite at a time?
    0:12:35 let’s just start
    0:12:38 With the erosion if you were to start with
    0:12:41 We have 750 military bases in 80 countries
    0:12:45 China has one in jibouti in africa and I think
    0:12:50 when terrorists try and transmit funds or
    0:12:57 They have a choice a government has a choice between partnering with a u.s company or a chinese company or another western
    0:12:59 company
    0:13:03 They generally choose us and first off this notion that somehow america has been
    0:13:08 Taken advantage of as someone who has been roaming the earth working with the biggest
    0:13:14 Global companies in the world. I’ve done deals with world leaders on behalf of companies not on behalf of the u.s government
    0:13:19 The notion that we are somehow getting taken advantage of around the world is just so asinine
    0:13:25 We flex our muscles every minute of every day around the world in terms of our trade agreements
    0:13:30 Do you think these these 80 countries that host our military just decided to do it because they they like us?
    0:13:32 I mean, that’s some of it
    0:13:34 But that goodwill that power
    0:13:37 We exercise and benefit from
    0:13:41 Every day so just starting there the notion that this is somehow
    0:13:48 A recalibration to get back to some symmetry of equity. That’s just not that’s just not true
    0:13:51 And starting with the economic argument not the moral argument
    0:13:54 in canada
    0:13:56 You know first off
    0:14:01 They don’t even know what he wants. They’re claiming it’s because of the flow of fentanyl across the border
    0:14:07 There really isn’t a lot of fentanyl coming from canada. You could maybe it’s like 43 pounds
    0:14:09 You could make that maybe make that argument for mexico
    0:14:12 maybe even for china because some of it’s being manufactured there but
    0:14:21 Canada isn’t like dumping fentanyl from vancouver. That’s just not that’s just not happening and the canada can’t even figure out
    0:14:25 What is he wants and keep in mind? This is a nation
    0:14:29 that in the iran hostage crisis the canadian
    0:14:32 ambassador residents
    0:14:34 Hosted or hid
    0:14:40 Hostages it they risked their lives in the embassy there to help get americans out
    0:14:48 They followed us into afghanistan. No questions asked. They followed us into iraq. No questions asked. We have major league baseball
    0:14:50 I you just mentioned the nba. We have
    0:14:53 american sports teams in canadian cities
    0:14:58 And we’ve decided to declare economic war on canada
    0:15:03 It’s just it just doesn’t it’s not only reckless
    0:15:05 It’s it’s stupid
    0:15:10 And that’s just on the economic side. We can go further into
    0:15:15 You know the different, you know the other mendacious things are working on but this tariff
    0:15:18 This tariff is just
    0:15:21 It’s i always go to the economics. I’m like, okay
    0:15:25 How can I figure out a way to take brexit?
    0:15:32 And expand it and supersize it where we make our nation less productive but increase costs for everyone in the united states
    0:15:36 I know let’s take brexit. Let’s make it 10 times worse or bigger
    0:15:44 And then let’s figure out a way to be really mendacious and mean to people in the united states and in special interest groups and across
    0:15:47 Uh, the world your thoughts
    0:15:49 well, I think
    0:15:51 a critical component of the way
    0:15:53 trump sees the world is
    0:15:58 Enmeshed in your statement about being really mean and I think that they
    0:16:05 Uphold this notion that having friends doesn’t actually really matter everything
    0:16:09 Is for sale everything is a bargaining chip
    0:16:16 An exchange we’re all associates more than we’re actually friends or colleagues and Justin Trudeau’s
    0:16:24 Said as much that he had been trying to speak to trump since the inauguration hasn’t been able to and he even went down to mar-a-lago
    0:16:25 Right and kissed the ring
    0:16:30 And said, you know, I want to find ways to work together. So trump doesn’t care
    0:16:32 about friends
    0:16:33 at all
    0:16:35 He doesn’t
    0:16:39 believe in allies certainly in the way that we’ve conceived of them. I don’t think
    0:16:44 That he thought about or really cares about the second order effect of this
    0:16:49 Which was the same as we were talking about last week with Colombia and panama
    0:16:54 Mexico that maybe everyone actually gets together behind our backs
    0:17:00 And we end up really isolated and alone from all of this and for some of them not necessarily Mexico, but
    0:17:08 Like a columbia for instance that they turn to china who are their second biggest trading partners in reaction
    0:17:15 To us changing the way that we do business to put it politely, but you see these republicans
    0:17:21 Melting down and freaking out about what’s going to happen to their constituents. Chuck rassley is on
    0:17:29 acts begging for certain exemptions and the canadiens are being very specific about how they are executing these tariffs
    0:17:31 They are targeting
    0:17:36 products that come out of right-leaning states that have republicans in charge and
    0:17:39 majority of voters who voted to elect donald trump
    0:17:45 So things like orange juice bourbon whiskey and they want to be specific about it
    0:17:49 And they understand that the country is really split along these lines
    0:17:50 I shouldn’t say they’re split
    0:17:56 On what they think of tariffs because a large majority of people know that tariffs are just attacks on the consumer
    0:18:03 But so you have republicans that are concerned about this ron johnson was on fox this morning
    0:18:07 Talking about how it’s a tax mitch mcconnell was on 16 minutes yesterday talking about how this is a tax
    0:18:10 You have him asking for these exemptions from it
    0:18:15 And you really have got to wonder besides the fact that donald trump just likes tariffs
    0:18:20 And maybe it’s that simple and the man talks about mckinley more than anyone
    0:18:26 Probably even members of mckinley’s family talks about him that he just has this fascination with it
    0:18:29 But when you have the business community who has
    0:18:36 Been of such value to him and huge boosters of his campaign and his presidency the people who benefited the most from the
    0:18:41 Tax breaks that he put into effect in 2017 coming out and saying you’re going to wreck my business
    0:18:46 Right people run walmart lows home depot etc
    0:18:52 I wonder if he is going to have to find some way to backtrack and I know that he would argue
    0:18:59 This is just the opening salvo, but the opening salvo was supposed to be a few percentage points, right not going for
    0:19:01 25 percent
    0:19:08 And I know that the market didn’t open as far down as it did on deep seek day last week
    0:19:15 I was curious why you thought that that was that it wasn’t as much of a hit as I would have expected at least opening
    0:19:18 Bell well, so as we stand here right now the dow’s off
    0:19:22 A hundred and or about 200 points, which is right isn’t huge
    0:19:24 I think the market with the market is saying
    0:19:30 And with a lot of republicans when they have absolutely no response for what is the strategy here
    0:19:36 Say, oh, this is like you said an opening salvo and people what the market is saying is that he’s done this
    0:19:39 He’ll get some sort of
    0:19:43 You know pinky promise as mark cuban said he’ll declare victory and say oh we got this
    0:19:51 They’re stopping the shipments of fentanyl and people will not do nothing and he’ll declare victory and then take these down or eliminate them
    0:19:52 That’s what they’re saying right now
    0:19:55 The problem with this is that when you threaten people
    0:19:58 You know, they remember it and I can just
    0:20:04 He’s creating an enormous opening for russia and china to establish military bases goodwill
    0:20:07 cooperation between their intelligence services
    0:20:10 Less likely to cooperate with ours less likely to call us and say
    0:20:17 Hey, we have information saying there’s a terrorist organization in a cell and a bunch of these individuals
    0:20:20 Have gotten on planes and are headed to new york
    0:20:24 We have a lot of nations that will call will cooperate with our intelligence personnel
    0:20:28 I think part of the problem is I think americans have cold comfort
    0:20:29 that
    0:20:33 One they don’t realize how many people are out there in organizations that would like to come
    0:20:39 Kill us and take our shit away and that this our government security apparatus has been so effective
    0:20:43 And we are so strong at getting the best better end
    0:20:49 Of trade agreements and the prosperity we recognize which I acknowledge has been crammed into you know
    0:20:53 Just proportionately into two few people’s pockets. I think people take for granted
    0:20:58 Just how strong our security and government apparatuses overseas
    0:21:04 And how much that is aided by the ultimate cloud cover of goodwill towards us that
    0:21:07 Despite being arrogant indulgent
    0:21:13 Loud obnoxious that people generally believe around the world especially in the west
    0:21:16 That we’re the good guys that they can count on us
    0:21:22 And so to to kind of stick up the middle finger create chaos do real economic harm
    0:21:27 Without even a clear signal as to what it is you want in return
    0:21:34 But just to do this because you can even if in fact he does which retract these things I was on the board
    0:21:38 Of a large specialty retailer and I talked to
    0:21:42 The person runs the company over the weekend. I said, what do you think he’s doing?
    0:21:45 And he said well, we’ve stocked up because we knew this was coming
    0:21:50 So we stocked up. We got a bunch of stuff in like six months where the stuff
    0:21:55 Before this took effect because we knew it was coming and we’re banking that
    0:21:59 When he realizes when all of a sudden the price of everything goes up for american consumers
    0:22:03 He’s going to pretend that it was a victory and that he negotiated some deal and back away
    0:22:07 And even if that comes off with as little damage as we think
    0:22:14 That is that is like radiation that 20 or 30 years ago results and look, you know from now results in leukemia
    0:22:19 And the other thing that the only kind of analysis I did here that I think uncovered something that maybe
    0:22:22 The media isn’t talking that much about is that
    0:22:28 This has this tariff thing has elan musk’s fingerprints all over it. What do I mean by that?
    0:22:34 If you look at tesla to their credit versus other automobile companies the majority of automobile companies
    0:22:36 That car they’re producing
    0:22:41 Goes across the mexican and canadian border back and forth several times
    0:22:48 Because there’s different parts manufacturers with different advantages or skill sets across, you know, the trade agreements in mexico and canada
    0:22:54 Tesla to its credit has built a company that has kind of a deeper manufacturing base. What do I mean by that?
    0:22:59 The majority of the car is assembled domestically and you think well, what about china?
    0:23:02 They’re gonna have to pay tariffs when china imposes reciprocal tariffs
    0:23:07 Actually, the majority of cars sold in china from tesla are produced in china
    0:23:13 Now some of the chinese manufactured teslas that are sold in europe face a seven and a half percent
    0:23:16 Tariff which by the way, he’s suing them for
    0:23:22 But of all the companies in the automobile industry that will be least impacted by these tariffs
    0:23:24 It’s tesla
    0:23:28 So again, even I mean we talked about cutting off
    0:23:32 He has access to the payments for veteran affairs all these different things that people worry about
    0:23:37 Even where they don’t see his fingerprints. His fingerprints are there. I believe that he
    0:23:39 he had a large
    0:23:44 A lot of influence in how these tariffs were implemented such that it has
    0:23:51 It has seriously diminished the the economic power of his automobile rivals
    0:23:54 And again, it’s okay. The richest man in the world
    0:24:02 Now has more access to the federal government payment system can decide to turn off or on veterans benefits. I mean just this
    0:24:07 Crazy shit and what do you know? He’s the richest man in the world and it all goes to the same place
    0:24:10 And that is and I was talking with care about this on pivot
    0:24:19 You know and we’ll get to this that that all of the the websites that are disappearing around family planning and choice
    0:24:21 and hiv and vaccines
    0:24:25 I see this as the far right and trump have said
    0:24:30 It’s not a war on gay people or a war on women. It’s a war on the poor
    0:24:37 Because I think the deal they’ve struck is they’ve said, you know poor people always have a back door to family planning
    0:24:41 To vaccines, whatever it is they need. They’ll be fine. They’ll figure it out
    0:24:45 This really feels like a war on the poor and the flip side of that is that the richest man in the world
    0:24:53 Is now basically much more powerful than any elected representative any governor any senator any congressperson
    0:24:57 I still think trump’s more powerful because he can fire musk
    0:25:02 But we now have an unelected person and what do you know? He happens to be the wealthiest person in the world
    0:25:07 This is full idolatry of money. This is full capture by money
    0:25:14 Of dc and it is I think it’s going to come at a huge cost to the long-term goodwill and it’s so strange
    0:25:19 And I’ll stop my word salad here for the first time in my life and it feels really odd
    0:25:22 I’m rooting for the germans and the canadians
    0:25:27 Like when the german public turns out a hundred thousand of them to say by the way
    0:25:32 When your fucking idiot shows up and tells a far-right group here, they should be proud of their culture
    0:25:37 The majority of germans do not believe believe that nor endorse that message
    0:25:40 when canada boos
    0:25:44 When the national anthem is sung at a sporting event
    0:25:46 And I don’t know if it was toronto or montreal
    0:25:48 I got to be honest
    0:25:54 I’m with them and it feels really really unusual. I think it was toronto. It was a raptor’s game, right? Was it
    0:25:56 I think so
    0:25:57 um
    0:26:02 Just to your point about how quickly this can be reversed while you were word salading
    0:26:05 Which I actually got a lot of sense out of and I have something to respond to that
    0:26:11 There was an announcement that claudia shinebaum the president of mexico has negotiated a one month delay on the tariffs
    0:26:15 So this all fits nicely though into
    0:26:23 The manufactured chaos of everything and that they want us at every single moment to be looking in a thousand different directions
    0:26:27 And to be outraged about all of these different things so that you can’t see
    0:26:33 The forest through the trees. I think that’s what that phrase is. I and it feels as if
    0:26:38 The takeover of the government by an unelected
    0:26:40 unconfirmed
    0:26:43 Almost trillionaire right or will be certainly by the end of this
    0:26:50 is absolutely the forest through the trees of this and musk has such a personal touch
    0:26:57 On all of the very aggressive and very underhanded tactics that are being used in the management of
    0:26:59 trump’s second term that
    0:27:06 I think it’s almost indisputable that he is this co-president which I know pissed off trump when people were saying things like that
    0:27:11 And yes, of course trump is the most powerful man in the world because he’s actually in control of our military
    0:27:18 But the influence that musk has had is so far-reaching. I mean, he’s the henchman that is going out there and bullying
    0:27:25 All of the senators who might not vote for the nominees that they want for cabinet
    0:27:27 and the newest one todd young
    0:27:32 From indiana is, you know, probably not interested in tulsi gabbards
    0:27:37 Brand of national security that last week during her confirmation hearings
    0:27:42 She just couldn’t get there to call edward snowden a traitor and you had democrats and republicans alike
    0:27:45 Basically begging her just to say the guy
    0:27:50 Is a traitor. Can’t we do better than somebody who doesn’t believe in 702?
    0:27:55 Can’t we believe that somebody who can’t answer whether snowden was a traitor five times?
    0:27:58 today
    0:28:05 Who made excuses for vladimir putin’s invasion of ukraine the first time that
    0:28:07 i’m aware of any
    0:28:10 American official has done that
    0:28:15 I’m questioning her judgment. That’s the issue that’s at stake here
    0:28:20 And that’s something that I think is pretty fundamental to someone who’s going to be heading up 18
    0:28:25 Intelligence agencies. So now todd young is being bullied. There was a big political piece about
    0:28:31 Uh, what happened in the back rooms to get tom tellis to vote for pete hegseth and by extension
    0:28:35 What happened with joni Ernst before that two people who didn’t seem like they were going to
    0:28:43 And if they had added on to murkowski and collins and mensch mcconnell that hegseth wouldn’t have been confirmed
    0:28:46 And I don’t know what
    0:28:52 Can be done about this and this brings me back to where I started of feeling really depressed
    0:28:57 Or just despondent about the whole thing and you i’m an optimistic person
    0:29:01 I’ve been accused of being a polyana once or twice in my life
    0:29:05 But it seems like that there are really few bright spots, especially because
    0:29:08 there has been no delivery of
    0:29:10 lower prices
    0:29:15 Or the crime rate hasn’t fallen or that they’re deporting the bad guys
    0:29:20 And I understand that there’s a difference between how you’re going to be holding some of the world’s worst terrorists
    0:29:25 And how you’re going to be holding migrants that either have deportation orders or who have done something terrible
    0:29:32 Like murdered an american or who are pedophiles people that none of us want in here, but everything
    0:29:37 Just is blazing red un-american to me at this point
    0:29:41 And I think that the answer or at least this is what my husband has been telling me
    0:29:48 Is that my definition of america isn’t applicable anymore that whether we like it or not
    0:29:54 We have undergone a revolution. That’s what happened at the ballot box
    0:29:56 on november 5th in 2024
    0:30:03 And that’s not to say that this was the shellacking that a lot of people have made it seem but it put a person back in office
    0:30:06 That so many millions of people
    0:30:13 Think can take absolutely any action that he and those around him want in pursuit
    0:30:17 of whatever their stated goal of the day is
    0:30:19 and
    0:30:21 I don’t know how we come back from that. There is
    0:30:25 So much evidence that this has nothing to do with efficiency. This is a coup
    0:30:31 That’s what’s happening bill marius to say it’s a slow moving coup. This is now a fast moving coup
    0:30:35 This is day 15 of it when this goes live a day 14
    0:30:38 When we’re recording it. It’s pretty
    0:30:45 Fucking fast that this is happening and they are banking on our inability to do anything about it
    0:30:50 And I have friends who are saying well, what about the lawsuits and there are a bunch of lawsuits that have been filed
    0:30:52 And they were able to unfreeze the freeze
    0:30:55 but
    0:30:59 They will be able to break things so fast that a lawsuit will not get to them
    0:31:03 And we essentially if we you needed mike pence on january 6th
    0:31:06 You need thousands of mike pences now to be able to do this
    0:31:11 And it seems like the good people of the doj and the fbi and all of these agencies
    0:31:17 Feel up to the job and they are dug in there are all these amazing reddit threads
    0:31:22 Where folks who work in the bureaucracy are saying, you know, I was thinking about the buyout and now I’m showing up to work
    0:31:26 And I’m going to make sure that we support and defend the constitution
    0:31:28 But at a moment where the democratic party
    0:31:36 Is pretty weak and we’re really struggling with a message and getting it together and having a unified theme in all of this
    0:31:37 that
    0:31:46 We don’t stand much of a chance to be able to stop what’s already begun Ruth Bader Ginsburg said that the symbol of america isn’t really an eagle
    0:31:48 It’s a pendulum and that
    0:31:50 You know, it’s never at the bottom
    0:31:58 And if you’re looking for a moment of optimism, I believe that the majority of americans will come to realize whether it’s
    0:32:02 Through an inability to rebuild their house for less than 40 percent more
    0:32:06 The fact the prices are going to go up the fact they’re going to start to meet people who are
    0:32:08 Who were
    0:32:13 Really treated unfairly or just the fact they’re going to go, you know, I’m no longer as proud to be an american as I used to be
    0:32:19 I think people I think there’s a decent chance they have really overreached here and some of the damage
    0:32:21 It’s going to come out of this is going to frighten
    0:32:26 People who even thought they were, you know, I think a lot of people probably didn’t sign up for
    0:32:34 For this and while it might feel good and like yeah, take that libtards and I mean, I just find it so telling
    0:32:38 That the some of the agencies charged with rounding up
    0:32:44 If you will, um undocumented workers, where are they going? They’re going to work sites
    0:32:47 schools and places and churches
    0:32:53 And it strikes me. Okay. If you found a group of people and said where can we find them?
    0:32:56 We can find them. We’re only 40 of americans work
    0:33:02 145 million people have a job out of 350 350 million
    0:33:06 These people are working. They’re going to church and their kids are going to school
    0:33:14 Doesn’t that kind of make them ground zero for what america is supposed to be and then to go macro and I am not a believer in open borders
    0:33:19 I absolutely think 250 000 people coming across the border in december of 2023
    0:33:23 Got us into this fucking mess and I think botten did a terrible job
    0:33:29 But at the same time what we have to acknowledge is how okay, how did we get here? We got here
    0:33:36 Because america’s if america’s secret sauce is immigration the most profitable part of that sauce is illegal immigration
    0:33:42 And we have known about it 17 of people on a construction site are undocumented workers
    0:33:46 There are all these videos now everywhere of all these work sites that are empty
    0:33:51 They come in it’s the most flexible profitable workforce in history
    0:33:53 is not
    0:33:55 Stanford graduates
    0:33:59 It’s not it’s not immigrants from india running nasa companies
    0:34:04 It’s it’s illegal undocumented workers coming in
    0:34:06 Taking care of grandma picking our crops
    0:34:14 Providing services for quote unquote below market. I renovated a house. There’s not a single american who will work outside
    0:34:17 They just won’t do it. You can’t find them. They’re still in plumbing and electric
    0:34:21 Any other job building a house is like I can’t find domestic workers
    0:34:26 And they’re very profitable. They don’t tax social services. They don’t stick around for social security
    0:34:33 Despite the fact they pay social security taxes. So they’ve been demonized. This feels eerily reminiscent of the 110 000
    0:34:38 Japanese who made the mistake of their parents being bored in japan
    0:34:42 They did nothing else and they were rounded up and put in camps
    0:34:44 That was a stain on the american experience
    0:34:49 And it feels like we’re getting eerily close to some sort of kabuki version of that
    0:34:55 Or some sort of kuroki version. I don’t know what the term is. I bad bad impromptu version of that
    0:34:57 but this is
    0:35:00 I got to think if i’m looking for a piece of optimism
    0:35:06 It’s like, oh my gosh, I can’t imagine that moderates who decide elections are looking at this
    0:35:10 I think for about three or four days. They thought right on. Okay went too far, but i’m enjoying it
    0:35:14 It tickles my sensors those fucking democrats. I love this
    0:35:19 I think this is way further than people had anticipated and you want to talk about
    0:35:23 An impact try and build a house right now wait till you go to the grocery store
    0:35:26 I don’t think you’re going to see prices pivot as quickly
    0:35:33 Is people think because per this co i spoke to they were expecting this so they stocked up
    0:35:40 But when the guy who said the war in ukraine will be over in 24 hours, then i’m going to have your prices come down right away
    0:35:42 when
    0:35:44 prices start ticking up I had
    0:35:50 We were very critical of the democrats response and I had a democratic senator call me and said, well, what would you do?
    0:35:51 I’m like, I totally focus on prices
    0:35:58 I’d have on the dnc website the price of six foodstuffs and I track it every day. I don’t think people realize what’s
    0:36:03 What’s coming? I totally agree with you and I see I watched all the sunday shows
    0:36:09 And you see the democrats have clearly gotten that memo, but it’s still so clunky in the delivery right you got a question about
    0:36:15 X and then before I get into that. Do you know how much eggs cost today marge?
    0:36:18 like
    0:36:20 What it’s not
    0:36:25 flowing cohesively at this point, but yes, it’s obviously going to be about the prices
    0:36:26 um
    0:36:28 So go back that was just
    0:36:32 an egg aside and then this nonsense about
    0:36:36 politicizing a tragedy the wildfires were politicized by both ends
    0:36:38 Democrats immediately said it was climate change
    0:36:43 Republicans said it was dei. They were both wrong in my view. I mean, we’ll find out but
    0:36:48 That immediately went to politics on the on the airline disaster
    0:36:51 um, the democrats I think handled that correctly
    0:36:59 and basically the republicans said it was dei and of course no one has been able to establish a language dei and if you look at the fAA
    0:37:04 You know, I’m about to get on a plane for Orlando in about two hours
    0:37:07 I can get there
    0:37:09 for about 400 bucks
    0:37:14 And it is safer to get on a plane to skirt along the surface of the atmosphere at eight tenths of speed of sound
    0:37:16 for
    0:37:19 You know, whatever it is seven thousand miles
    0:37:23 Or i’m sorry. No, about four thousand miles seven thousand kilometers
    0:37:25 Then it is to go what literally walk up my stairs
    0:37:29 You take a greater risk when you walk upstairs than when you get on a plane
    0:37:31 the fAA
    0:37:37 Granted, this is a tragedy. I don’t and anyone wanted to diminish the tragedy of the families who have lost loved ones
    0:37:41 But we should pray for companies and organizations
    0:37:47 They do as well as the government run fAA. It is amazing and if dei had anything to do
    0:37:49 with the culture
    0:37:50 At the federal aviation administration
    0:37:56 Then we should incorporate dei into any or every organization because they do an amazing job
    0:38:02 And it’s such bullshit because the standards have not been lowered. All they did was broaden the aperture
    0:38:07 To try and find candidates from different backgrounds and when you attack dei be clear
    0:38:09 I understand the notion
    0:38:12 I have proposed and advocated before it was cool
    0:38:17 To disassemble the dei apparatus and campuses because I think that problem has mostly been solved
    0:38:23 It has not been solved in corporations and be clear as it relates to the government if you want to get rid of dei
    0:38:30 That’s really going to impact veterans. There are a lot of veterans who have lost a limb suffer from ptsd
    0:38:36 And because of dei, they have a fighting chance of being employed after they return from service
    0:38:37 so
    0:38:42 Just be careful what you’re asking for and these this the politicization of that
    0:38:47 Was so ugly and so strange and such a disservice
    0:38:52 And to all government employees it just feels as if where where is this going to?
    0:38:57 I mean, where is this? Where is this? Where is this headed? I don’t I’m
    0:39:03 I’m like you having trouble. I do you think you’re going to get to check back what you just said about claudia shanbaum
    0:39:09 Says to me his advisors have already said, okay, we may have overreached here
    0:39:13 This isn’t going to work out for us, which is what they had to do with unfreezing the freeze
    0:39:16 right before it even got to court apparently there was
    0:39:20 a difference of opinion
    0:39:24 from trump’s camp versus the omb and the doge folks
    0:39:32 Even though the head of omb isn’t even confirmed at this point. I tend to agree with you about dei
    0:39:36 I think that it’s an easy scapegoat for people that don’t want to do
    0:39:44 Real thinking about how to reform agencies make things more efficient and also be more inclusive
    0:39:48 Which is one of our strengths as a country but going back to what I was saying about
    0:39:54 Maybe my vision of america doesn’t compute with how people see america these days and we don’t have
    0:39:57 The same set of shared values
    0:39:59 but what I noticed during
    0:40:02 The aftermath of the plane crash and this was going on
    0:40:08 I was on the five every day last week because the democrat that I shared the seat with was out so
    0:40:11 I had the continuity
    0:40:17 of day after day after day after day on it and seeing how the story was shifting from my
    0:40:21 republican counterparts and
    0:40:25 How they were trying to move around the facts that were coming out
    0:40:35 Things like the same dei policy that was implemented under obama trump kept it and even sent out new recruiting materials
    0:40:42 In 2019 looking for people with all the characteristics that they sit up there and decry and try to blame this for
    0:40:50 Or even watching trump shapeshift on the first day of the crisis where he comes out, you know hot about dei
    0:40:54 Then he hears that the pilots were white. So he was like, um, what do I do now?
    0:41:00 So then he says dei actually just means incompetence and then there’s the natural correlation or extension
    0:41:07 I should say which is that you think that people of color or women or people are part of the lgbtq plus community
    0:41:14 Are incompetent but that was a safe place that people that support him and this
    0:41:17 War against dei could hide where they said well
    0:41:19 We’re just talking about
    0:41:23 In competency and of course no one wants an air traffic controller. That’s incompetent
    0:41:31 The real problem is recruitment and people to judge had requested this and made a big stink about it in 2023
    0:41:39 Everything we need more faa controllers and if you have on the night of the crash, which we did one controller that is talking to both the helicopter and the plane
    0:41:46 It’s a recipe for disaster and we’ll see what the ntsb finds in all of this. I think that they have been
    0:41:53 Incredibly professional and the right balance also of you know, we want to get to the bottom of this and also so
    0:42:01 Emotional when it comes to dealing with the families who are obviously grieving all these young figure skaters
    0:42:05 That had these hugely bright futures ahead of them that were on that plane
    0:42:09 But we are in this dangerous place
    0:42:12 where the talking points
    0:42:14 like dei
    0:42:16 are cover
    0:42:18 for all sorts
    0:42:24 of deeply racist and bigoted and anti-american
    0:42:27 sets of values and they are
    0:42:31 They have been able to very effectively hide behind them
    0:42:37 And I was thinking a lot about the impact that Javier Malay has had on this administration
    0:42:43 So the president of argentina who came in in 2023 big reformer and he’s essentially the model for what
    0:42:52 Musk and trump are doing right now. So fire tens of thousands of bureaucrats shut down entire departments shut down entire departments
    0:42:54 halt infrastructure projects
    0:43:01 Slash energy and transportation subsidies. I mean, it’s really crazy actually to look at how aligned
    0:43:07 They are with what he has done and argentina has there obviously still a lot of problems there
    0:43:11 But they have had some very positive results, which no one has been able to deny
    0:43:18 And then malay shows up in davos last week and gives this speech that most regarded as
    0:43:20 incredibly bigoted
    0:43:26 and attacked you know many members of the argentinian community and
    0:43:34 You see the applause or the the inability I guess to separate the good parts of this from the bad parts of this
    0:43:36 and it’s like you have to be
    0:43:42 A mean kid in order to be effective and I just don’t
    0:43:49 Understand that there were all of these very effective leaders and I’m not a math of ronald reagan gal
    0:43:55 but I understand how many people feel passionately about him and his legacy and
    0:44:03 He didn’t feel the need to talk like that and I know that the policies had a lot of negative implications for people but even
    0:44:08 The way that we have made it okay to be so crass
    0:44:15 And so nasty and cutting and so obviously telegraph the fact that you don’t think that the people
    0:44:21 That you govern are equals to you that our our humanity is not equal
    0:44:24 That being on display from
    0:44:26 the most important
    0:44:29 pulpit in the world think spells
    0:44:36 A really dangerous future for all of us argentina is not america and to use it as a role model
    0:44:38 It’s just plain stupid argentin
    0:44:45 In argentina 55 of registered workers a work for the government in argentina. They have an inflation rate
    0:44:53 Of like 170 and it’s declined. I think to 118 percent. So that’s type of shock therapy
    0:44:57 It’s easy to understand why that was receptive. It’s just not that
    0:44:59 Just isn’t the case
    0:45:04 In in the united states and this general notion of people
    0:45:10 I think it all reverse engineers back to income inequality where people feel really frustrated when they see all this prosperity that they’re not
    0:45:12 sharing and so they get angry and then
    0:45:18 Oddly, you know, this guy positions himself as an outsider ship post government
    0:45:21 and if you think what I had one of those moments where
    0:45:25 For the most part we need to look at government regularly
    0:45:29 But for the most part I find that generally speaking government workers doing an outstanding job
    0:45:35 The most impressive organization in the world is a u.s. Government wing and that’s our department of defense and our armed services
    0:45:37 They are the most impressive organization
    0:45:41 In history in terms of what they’ve been able to accomplish on a lot of different levels
    0:45:46 I mean and if you want to talk about why we have deficits and why taxes
    0:45:50 I mean why we have you know, like
    0:45:58 What I would call a reckless fiscal policy something they also passed on the cover of dark while I’m trying to figure out respond to this ridiculousness
    0:46:02 They passed a tax cut
    0:46:07 And that is anyone making under three hundred thousand dollars is about to see their taxes go up
    0:46:09 where they’re they’re proposed a tax cut
    0:46:16 And people making over three hundred thousand dollars are about to get a tax cut. Is that what moderates wanted?
    0:46:22 Anyways, this is this is the strategy and it’s unfortunately really effective is flooding the zone
    0:46:28 with weirdness and depravity and because there’s an absence of journalists
    0:46:34 And because we don’t know which where to react first. We’re literally like in mash a mash unit
    0:46:36 Where all of a sudden
    0:46:38 600 soldiers
    0:46:42 Get brought in on stretchers with with an absence of limbs. We do not know
    0:46:49 Where to start anyways on that on that optimistic moment. We’re going to take a break. Please stay with us
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    0:50:12 So welcome back i want to talk about a couple things and get your response
    0:50:16 To each of them. So a couple of the things we haven’t been talking about
    0:50:21 um, the u.s. Government, uh, has decided or basically trump has decided
    0:50:27 Uh to eliminate and take down sites according to reporting from wire
    0:50:32 in the new york times more than 8 000 pages across government sites have been taken down since friday
    0:50:39 This follows trump’s orders to take down all outward facing media site social media accounts that include to promote gender ideology
    0:50:45 Topics of pages taken down include vaccines veterans affairs hate crimes and scientific research specifically
    0:50:48 3 000 pages were taken down from the cdc
    0:50:53 3 000 pages from the census bureau a thousand pages from the office of justice programs 200 pages from head start
    0:50:59 A program for low-income children on 180 pages from the department of justice and this goes to a theme
    0:51:01 that um
    0:51:04 I’m big on and that is I believe that the way
    0:51:11 Trump is implementing a misogynist anti gay ideology is to say to communities
    0:51:18 If you’re rich you got nothing to worry about if your nephew’s gay or transgender or your daughter needs to terminate a pregnancy
    0:51:20 don’t worry
    0:51:23 That this is continuing a war on the poor because like one of the things they took down
    0:51:27 I was reading about was this hiv transmission calculator
    0:51:30 Where you went in and talked about the type of sex you practiced
    0:51:32 um
    0:51:35 Your sexual orientation very straightforward questions and it said okay
    0:51:39 You are at high risk or low risk, but there are options available
    0:51:45 Or what type of options or programs available for a pregnant woman who contracts an std?
    0:51:49 And I think about okay. My son
    0:51:52 Doesn’t need that website
    0:51:54 My son has education
    0:51:59 Uh to parents at home money to figure things out or my daughter would need it
    0:52:02 This is an attack
    0:52:08 Uh on poor people under the auspices of implementing a far-right white christian nationalist
    0:52:14 Ideology with a wink and a nod saying okay, but my daughters and my sons if i’m rich
    0:52:18 We need an out. We need a back door here your thoughts just
    0:52:21 I totally agree. I always thought that
    0:52:24 We lost a bit of ground
    0:52:29 On the dobs decision because we didn’t message about it being an economic issue enough
    0:52:36 And we just seemed like people that were screaming about access to reproductive health care without talking about the brass tacks of who’s actually
    0:52:42 In need of this because there will be options for people who have financial flexibility
    0:52:45 And even if they aren’t in an emergency crisis
    0:52:51 Let alone have the time to go across state lines or go abroad to get the care that they need
    0:52:54 um, so I think looking through it through the prism
    0:52:58 Of the economy is the way to do it. It’s and it’s also the only way it was shown in the election
    0:53:02 That voters respond to anything it has to be about their bottom line
    0:53:09 And people are doing less and less for other people and more and more for themselves
    0:53:13 I’m very concerned about all of these
    0:53:18 data sets that are being taken down from the cdc site the nih
    0:53:22 site the usa id site
    0:53:26 because they are the key for people who work in
    0:53:34 The public sector in general especially the health care industry to be able to take care of people the world over
    0:53:41 And there are some prominent folks who have worked in these agencies that are sounding the alarm. They’re all over social media
    0:53:44 They’re talking to whatever reporters that they can
    0:53:49 Including this guy atul gawande who was the former head of global health at usa id
    0:53:53 Talking about how this is all just a gift to our enemies and competitors
    0:53:59 It’s not a pause and I thought that was really important that he called it out that they are telling you that this is a pause
    0:54:02 That everything will be restored. It’ll be
    0:54:06 You know just less the things that we shouldn’t be doing
    0:54:10 And the things that are actually appropriate, but he said it’s the destruction of the agency
    0:54:16 And I thought this was really powerful. We’re on the verge of ending hiv tb and malaria
    0:54:22 Funding the treatment of 20 million people with hiv worldwide including 6.5 million orphans
    0:54:28 Who else is going to be taking care of those orphans? Especially in countries where there is an infrastructure
    0:54:34 To take care of them whereas a society they don’t care. That’s how they ended up in this position
    0:54:40 Someone just dropped them off on a doorstep and they had a chance of actually living somewhere and being taken care of
    0:54:42 because of this
    0:54:44 um, you know, we have bird flu
    0:54:48 Coming there’s Ebola in Uganda again
    0:54:54 Price of eggs going back to it. I finally could get some whole foods had been out for several days
    0:54:56 I was able to stock up though
    0:54:58 but at an increased
    0:55:00 price point of course
    0:55:01 um
    0:55:03 it’s really
    0:55:06 Disturbing our people up to the task you talk about the journalists
    0:55:12 Two of the most major pieces of journalism on this have come from wired and you already
    0:55:15 Sighted one of them
    0:55:18 I’m concerned about the actual bodies to do the journalism
    0:55:23 But then also the depth of understanding to be able to do the job well because when you’re dealing with elan musk
    0:55:27 And these kids that are running doge with him that are coming out of
    0:55:33 Silicon Valley or these institutions where they have been steeped in
    0:55:35 technology
    0:55:42 And understanding things that are way above my head that you need people to be reporting on them that actually understand what’s going on
    0:55:47 And I don’t know if those voices are getting the right level of amplification
    0:55:50 And I mean that literally in terms of on social media is the guy who’s
    0:55:55 Running the algorithm keeping those voices out of the discourse. I would say yes
    0:55:58 And if you look at what happened in the election, you can see that
    0:56:01 coming to the fore
    0:56:07 But are we doing enough as private citizens to be amplifying these voices as well because there’s a lot of
    0:56:10 You know people screaming from the rooftops
    0:56:13 You know saying democracy dies in darkness
    0:56:20 But what are the practical things that we can be doing to be able to tell this story in a way that’s penetrating the average
    0:56:25 American that needs to know this going into the next set of elections
    0:56:30 But even to be able to prepare themselves for whatever is to come next over the course of the next two years
    0:56:35 Which is the next time that we’re going to get the opportunity to say something at the ballot box
    0:56:39 It’s a perfect storm of bad things one social media has guided journalism
    0:56:44 The number of journalists over the last 20 or 30 years is down somewhere between 20 and 30 percent and there’s arguably the largest cop
    0:56:50 Where the most powerful cop that doesn’t carry a badge to report on this stuff and they’re just overwhelmed and in addition
    0:56:54 the quote-unquote information that has replaced these journalists
    0:56:58 Traffics and rage and makes you hate the government and hate each other
    0:57:02 Which has kind of led to this and then you couple that with the idolatry of the dollar
    0:57:05 Where we let one person who happens to be the richest person in the world make these sorts of decisions
    0:57:10 You end up with an undereducated populace who believes in conspiracy theory is enraged
    0:57:16 And the wealthy or the wealthiest man in the world to start making these unilateral decisions with
    0:57:20 A lack of checks and balances not only from a congress that’s worried about him
    0:57:25 Turning his sights and his money and his algorithms on them and primarying them
    0:57:27 But because people are just so in awe
    0:57:33 Of money you reference what I think is just a national disgrace, but again
    0:57:36 So many disgraces we can’t focus on these things
    0:57:43 And that is the foreign aid freeze the u.s. Congress froze foreign aid a decision that will go down in my view in history
    0:57:45 is one of the most short-sighted
    0:57:51 Destructive and frankly un-american failures of leadership to be clear foreign aid is a rounding error in the federal budget
    0:57:56 It’s about 70 billion dollars or 200 dollars per citizen in exchange for that
    0:58:00 You know, what do we have?
    0:58:05 Sudan war ravaged country is on the edge of starvation until last week u.s. Fund supported
    0:58:09 634 soup kitchens feeding 800,000 people
    0:58:12 After the freeze
    0:58:14 434 of those kitchens were shut down
    0:58:17 overnight and tylen and myanomar
    0:58:24 Patients with tuberculosis and life-threatening conditions are being carried away on makeshift stretchers
    0:58:27 Told to leave us funded hospital within a week
    0:58:32 Because they have no more supply of medicine and they have nowhere else to go in africa
    0:58:37 Famine riddled sudan is worsening 6 million people are on the brink of starvation 4 and a half million
    0:58:43 Displaced people they were on the verge of eradicating diseases including malaria and malnutrition
    0:58:45 Some of those clinics are shutting down
    0:58:52 Global health the u.s. Funded hiv aids programs in south africa and hady has stalled putting hundreds of thousands of lives
    0:58:56 At risk and be clear folks, even if you want to make the moral argument
    0:59:02 Well, that’s a tragedy, but i want that 200 dollars focused on american kids. Okay, that’s an argument
    0:59:04 Don’t agree with it, but that’s an argument
    0:59:10 But the geopolitical fallout here is going to come back to hana’s china and russia are stepping into this void
    0:59:18 While the us pulls back beijing is deepening its ties in africa and latin america aid isn’t just about generosity. It’s about influence
    0:59:24 And washington’s retreat is just going to leave this gigantic vacuum that our adversaries are happy
    0:59:31 To fill with a fucking fraction of their investment. Putin will come up with that 70 billion if he can grab
    0:59:38 Some of that goodwill so for a 200 the majority of americans and i think republicans and emirates
    0:59:43 We sat him down and said this is the good. We’re doing around the world around hiv malaria
    0:59:46 starvation the
    0:59:49 Displaced refugees this is what we are doing
    0:59:54 for for for pregnant women with with aids with kids with vaccines
    0:59:57 This is what happens if we withdraw
    1:00:03 Are you willing to give us 200 right now here and now for the year? I think the majority of americans would say
    1:00:07 Absolutely the moral this aid freeze isn’t just a moral failure
    1:00:13 It’s a strategic disaster weakening our allies funding humanitarian crises and abandoning global leadership
    1:00:20 It’s going to cost us a lot more than 200 bucks per citizen. This is just what this is the definition
    1:00:27 Of a lack of strategy and taking goodwill built over decades and investments by previous americans and taxpayers
    1:00:31 In just trashing it in the worst way. This is just so
    1:00:35 Just so dumb. Well, it also is exposing
    1:00:43 I think a mistake that a lot of us made certainly. I made in talking about. Oh, it’ll be fine. Marco rubio is great
    1:00:47 Right, so i’m really happy with the foreign policy apparatus that he’s put into place
    1:00:51 Marco rubio is rubber stamping this and he hired this guy
    1:00:53 darin beaty or beaty
    1:00:57 He was fired from duke for attending a conference with white nationalists
    1:01:03 And he was too extreme for a junior role as a speechwriter in trump’s first administration when there were adults around
    1:01:09 He said that nato is a bigger threat than the chinese communist party whites in the u.s. Are treated better than weavers
    1:01:13 And he told tim scott and another and a bunch of other
    1:01:21 Uh black people that they need to bend the knee on january 6th and that other black people should quote unquote learn their place
    1:01:26 So that’s how he was spending his day and this is who marco rubio has on his team
    1:01:33 So if scott besant, you know, almost a year ago is talking about how tariffs are rarely used and shouldn’t be discharged
    1:01:37 And we have this fight with canada and maybe impending with mexico
    1:01:42 In a month whenever they get their stuff together you have this
    1:01:45 Guy being a support system for marco rubio
    1:01:52 Are there going to be any adults left in the room? Yeah, I don’t look this is this is and
    1:01:55 You know at some point we’re gonna have to do
    1:01:57 To show on what can be done here
    1:01:59 But i’ve said
    1:02:05 You know around democrats, this is not a time to come together. This is a time to come to the rescue and focus on the economic impact
    1:02:09 I do think uh democrats are starting to hit back. I loved
    1:02:15 The the some of the senate confirmation hearings. I think senator michael bennett is an absolute hero
    1:02:21 Um, by the way, who I supported for precedents my dad too. You guys were the only two of us
    1:02:23 I think there was a third somewhere in there
    1:02:28 Really, but i probably james bennett his brother. I what a cool sibling tandem by the way
    1:02:36 Yeah, they’re very improv, but it really I know senator bennett. He’s a really decent man public school superintendent senator
    1:02:38 Was in private equity understands capitalism anyways
    1:02:43 I I thought senator sanders and warren were very effective. Um
    1:02:46 So I it is good to see democrats hitting back
    1:02:52 But it this does feel like um, we’re in uncharted
    1:02:56 Uh territory anyways, we’re gonna take one more quick break and stay with us
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    1:04:11 Hey, what you doing programming our thermostat to 17 degrees when we’re out at work or asleep
    1:04:17 We’re taking control of our energy use this winter with some easy energy saving tips I got from Fortis, BC
    1:04:22 Ooh conserve energy and save money maybe to buy those matching winter jackets
    1:04:26 Uh, no, we’re also getting that whole matching outfit thing under control
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    1:04:35 matching tracksuits, please know
    1:04:40 Hey there, I’m Peter Kafka the host of channels a show about technology and media in the future
    1:04:44 And this has been a tremendously busy couple weeks for the tech industry
    1:04:48 There’s donald trump and is embraced by the men running the world’s most powerful companies
    1:04:51 There’s tiktok and its future in the us
    1:04:56 And there’s deep seek the chinese ai engine that just shook silicon valley and wall street
    1:05:04 I wanted to get an insider’s perspective on all of that. So this week I turned to jessica lesson the veteran tech journalist who runs the information
    1:05:06 Jessica told me why deep seek is so important
    1:05:12 Who she thinks might end up owning tiktok and why some of the valley isn’t just playing nice with donald trump
    1:05:14 But really thinks he’ll be good for them
    1:05:19 You can hear all of that on channels wherever you listen to awesome podcasts
    1:05:30 Welcome back before we wrap ken martin’s election as chair of the democratic national committee marks the beginning of a huge challenge after spending 14
    1:05:32 years leading minnesota’s dfl
    1:05:36 He’s no stranger to political battles, but now he’s stepping into a role with a lot more weight
    1:05:38 His victory was a decisive one
    1:05:43 But it’s only the first hurdle martin’s job now is to unite a divided party and rebuild momentum after
    1:05:50 20 losses in 2024 all while preparing for a tough battle against the trump led gop in 2028
    1:05:53 Just with contenders including ben wickler
    1:05:58 Who had a lot of big name support? What do you think gave ken the edge in securing the win?
    1:06:01 And how do you think he’ll use this momentum to unite the dnc moving forward?
    1:06:05 I think it was a lie having to do with his personal touch
    1:06:11 So there are 488 voting members of the democratic national committee for this
    1:06:17 He called every single one of them and spent up to two hours on the phone with them. So it didn’t just you know
    1:06:20 Hit you know line one
    1:06:24 Can I count on your vote line two? Can I count on your vote? He said talk to me
    1:06:29 What’s been going on here? And a lot of that has to do with the fact that he’s been so enmeshed in the organization
    1:06:31 He’s been a vice chair
    1:06:34 Since 2017. I think it is um, so
    1:06:36 he seemed
    1:06:40 Like he was really the people’s pick in all of that and I think that
    1:06:43 That’s a very good direction for us to be going in
    1:06:52 Sucks for leadership like Schumer and Pelosi and jeffrey’s also big donors soros and reid hoffman. We’re backing ben wickler
    1:06:53 who
    1:07:00 Is much more of the media darling in all of this and also I don’t want to minimize how effective he’s been in wisconsin
    1:07:04 Um, and that is certainly a model for all of us
    1:07:08 But it seems like ken martin had that personal touch that folks liked and I loved
    1:07:11 This quote, you know, they were talking about
    1:07:13 how some have called him a knife fighter
    1:07:18 And a democrat said he’s like Stalin and I say that as a compliment
    1:07:22 And I would love to have some Stalin energy
    1:07:27 On our side in terms of being ruthless over the course of the next two to four years
    1:07:33 Figuring out what our message is and he talked a lot about getting back to our working class roots
    1:07:37 which is definitely the direction that we have to be going in and
    1:07:42 I’m hopeful that he can get the job done. It was quite the contrast though
    1:07:50 So he won by a decisive victory, but there are all of these clips floating floating around of what was also going on at the dnc
    1:07:53 You know stuff about pronouns
    1:07:58 starting with um, a land acknowledgement jamey harrison gave an interview
    1:08:02 He’s the outgoing chair of the dnc where he said that we should have stuck with biden
    1:08:07 Which I think would have led to you know, over 400 electoral votes for trump
    1:08:12 If biden had stayed on the top of the ticket and so there’s this contrast between
    1:08:15 Being positive and hopeful about what the future
    1:08:22 Holds for the party and also thinking that there are still a lot of headwinds coming fast and furious towards us
    1:08:28 And that you almost can’t have anyone around a position of power
    1:08:34 Who would say something like biden should have stayed on top of the ticket looking at
    1:08:40 The results of the election and where the electorate is now and most importantly seven million people
    1:08:44 Who voted for biden in 2020 sat at home? That is our target
    1:08:48 We have to be laser focused in on those people. I think we’ve done a really bad job
    1:08:54 We being democrats of building our bench. Oh really? I’m trying to think the bench is bad
    1:08:57 I usually hear the messaging is bad, but I feel like there are all these
    1:09:05 Up and coming stars. Yeah, but my my view is that we’ve decided to opt for 90 year olds who engage in insider trade
    1:09:07 waiting and won’t leave
    1:09:11 That the top of the pyramid is so stacked with
    1:09:13 Right but ineffective players
    1:09:18 That we’re not advancing some of our younger voices fast enough. I just think there
    1:09:22 I think if you’re a young ambitious and talented
    1:09:26 You want to get to america and you want to be republican right now because I think the democrats
    1:09:30 Have decided that it’s a it’s a seniors facility
    1:09:35 And uh, I just think we need to absolutely elevate
    1:09:43 Let me forgot six Amy klobuchar. I think she’s 60 or 62. She looks like a teenager compared to the rest of our hooking jeffreys
    1:09:45 Looks like he’s 15
    1:09:47 We need to get some of these
    1:09:53 Uh, younger more forceful people. I’m not a huge fan of a osc’s policies. I I love that. She said i’m not going to the inauguration
    1:09:55 He’s a rapist
    1:09:58 I mean where are those voices for me? We need it to identify
    1:10:06 A cadre of 30 or 40 really? I mean secretary buddha jish. I like how he came out and immediately tweeted, you know
    1:10:08 zero crashes on my watch boss
    1:10:11 And that’s an unfair statement and he should make it
    1:10:16 But I don’t think I think we have I don’t know. I think we’re like a corporation
    1:10:19 I I think a lot of these people need to be put on an ice floe jess
    1:10:21 I think that that’s fair. I agree with you
    1:10:27 I not necessarily for an age cutoff but just for people coming to their senses and realizing
    1:10:32 That even if they can still physically walk and talk that there are people
    1:10:36 Who need to be nurtured and to have the opportunity and that we do have
    1:10:41 A derse of people waiting to have their opportunity
    1:10:45 I wanted to shout out though. There are a few people you already said a osc
    1:10:50 I think chris murphy on the senate side has been great over the course of the last week and a lot of it
    1:10:55 He’s doing through his own social media. I don’t think instagram live is going to save us per se
    1:11:00 From the hostile takeover of the government by elan musk and co, but I
    1:11:02 liked seeing
    1:11:05 What he had to say about it and that it was the rapid response
    1:11:12 People don’t care that much if you are absolutely right about every detail and the details are moving so quickly
    1:11:15 That within a couple of hours part of what you’ve said
    1:11:19 Is unfortunately going to have been inaccurate, but they want to see the passion
    1:11:24 They want to see the fight and they want to see that you care and that you’re using all of the tools in your arsenal
    1:11:28 To make sure that the american public knows that there are still people they’re
    1:11:33 Fighting for them agree with you about michael bennett. I thought one of the most powerful moments
    1:11:35 during the rfk jr
    1:11:37 confirmation hearing and god
    1:11:42 I hope that he doesn’t get through but i’m so afraid of everyone being pushed into line
    1:11:49 By these bullying tactics was maggie hasson from new hampshire. I don’t know if you saw this, but she was basically in tears
    1:11:55 Talking to rfk jr about her son 36 years old cerebral palsy now
    1:11:59 Some of you are new to this committee and new to the senate so you may not know
    1:12:04 That i am the proud mother of a 36 year old young man with severe cerebral palsy
    1:12:08 And a date does not go by
    1:12:16 When i don’t think about what did i do when i was pregnant with him that might have caused the hydrocephalus
    1:12:19 That has so impacted his life
    1:12:28 So please do not suggest that anybody in this body of either political party doesn’t want to know what the cause of autism is
    1:12:34 i’m sure you had this as well with your partner where you just think oh, i know it’s the third trimester
    1:12:39 I can have a glass of wine, but should i or i really would love to have
    1:12:45 Some cold cuts or is having this sushi going to be okay or god forbid i fell
    1:12:50 In the subway or walking down the street, whatever it is and what are the implications
    1:12:56 For this little person that i already love more than i thought i could love anything in this world
    1:13:02 And it just it brought me to tears watching her talk about that and having to do that
    1:13:09 In a confirmation hearing for someone who is going to run our health care system and can’t say that vaccines don’t cause autism
    1:13:13 every time i saw i thought this is the greatest threat to democracy of
    1:13:17 an individual who you know shares
    1:13:24 Shares company with bashar al-Assad and can’t call edwards snowden a trader is going to just destroy the morale of people
    1:13:27 Who put themselves in harm’s way every day and wonder is this person
    1:13:32 Really going to have my back and then i think oh no, she’s not the worst. He’s the worst that
    1:13:35 We’re going to have kids who are going to lose limbs and have
    1:13:40 Hands and feet amputated, which is what happened if measles we have another measles outbreak
    1:13:43 Who’s selling onesies to babies?
    1:13:48 That says you know waxed in prime. I mean unvaxxed and what is it?
    1:13:56 Those onesies i don’t know, but they were 26 bucks. Yeah, and i just it’s it’s just very odd
    1:14:01 Really it’s dystopia. Yeah, it is you just don’t think that it’s really happening
    1:14:05 You’re watching cash patelle and i’m holding up a picture saying you know
    1:14:13 Did you post this meme of chainsawing democrats and this can’t possibly be happening and he’s going to soar through
    1:14:18 Yeah, he’s coming across almost as like semi legitimate and senator rubio has always been a political animal
    1:14:23 He wakes up every morning and looks in the mirror and says hello, mr. President. He would do anything
    1:14:30 To increase the likelihood and by quite frankly, and i’m circling back the very beginning here around our immigration policy
    1:14:34 They got very serious about immigration about 20 years ago
    1:14:39 And they had something called the gang of five and they included this very young senator named marco rubio
    1:14:44 And he blew up the whole thing because his pollsters decided that in iowa
    1:14:49 They don’t want anything resembling a path to citizenship for dreamers
    1:14:51 so
    1:14:56 Marco rubio will always do what he believes is the most politically expedient thing full stop
    1:15:02 I mean, he really is the opposite of a leader and my favorite statement about marco rubio is who would have thought
    1:15:06 That people’s would last put the last names cruise and rubio would hate
    1:15:09 mexican people so much
    1:15:11 He really hasn’t been
    1:15:14 anyways and what’s strange is
    1:15:16 I can see how he flew in 99 to 0
    1:15:21 Because we have we have just changed entirely changed
    1:15:24 The benchmark but what you said about
    1:15:27 Is it senator hasson?
    1:15:30 That was really powerful. Um, actually, I think that’s probably a
    1:15:36 A good place to end it. I don’t have anything upbeat. What do you do? What are you doing this week?
    1:15:39 Jess, let’s get back to you. Talk about something upbeat. Anything going on with your kids?
    1:15:47 No, I know you’re really desperate. I am desperate. I’m reaching. Well, scott since you asked. No, uh pick a strap. I’m going to disney world
    1:15:48 my
    1:15:52 Well, that part i’m jealous of that part. My daughter went to her first tennis class
    1:15:58 Where they don’t really use rackets, but they you know meet the ball and the racket. It was very cute
    1:16:00 It’s all just about the videos and the pictures, right?
    1:16:07 Very good trust me on this you cannot take enough pictures when your kids are young. I every day I send a photo
    1:16:11 Of me and my one of my boys when I was with them when I was a kid
    1:16:13 I sent it to them. I texted to him at school
    1:16:18 And it is you can’t take enough photos and they love it
    1:16:22 Yeah, they do like well. We love ourselves no matter how old we are
    1:16:30 Narcissists from birth. There you go. All right. That’s it for this episode. Thank you for listening to raging moderates our producers are david Toledo
    1:16:33 and shenanye onake
    1:16:37 Our technical director is drew burrows. You can find raging moderates on its own feed every Tuesday
    1:16:41 That’s right raging moderates on its own feed. Please follow us wherever you get your podcasts
    1:16:44 See you later. Thanks Jess
    1:16:47 (upbeat music)

    Trump’s at it again—chaos, confusion, and a whole lot of head-scratching. This week, Scott and Jessica dig into the latest mess: a gutted federal government, Trump blaming DEI for a deadly plane crash, and new attacks on schools, trans kids, and immigrants. Plus, just as inflation was easing up, he launched a short-lived trade war with tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. And what does Ken Martin’s win as DNC chair mean for the future of the Democratic Party?

    Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov

    Follow Prof G, @profgalloway.

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  • Is Deepseek Worth the Hype?

    AI transcript
    0:00:05 The world went nuts over this new Chinese AI model called DeepSeek.
    0:00:08 Things are going to accelerate even more because now you’ve got China as a real player.
    0:00:11 From here on out, I feel like pretty much all of the models are going to have this
    0:00:13 sort of thinking element to it.
    0:00:16 The world is going to be dramatically different in like two years from now.
    0:00:19 I mean, these models are probably going to be like 50 times smarter,
    0:00:21 at least 20 times smarter in two years.
    0:00:27 Hey, welcome to the Next Wave Podcast. I’m Matt Wolf. I’m here with Nathan Lanz.
    0:00:30 And today, we’re going to talk about the thing that the whole world’s been talking
    0:00:32 about over the last couple of weeks.
    0:00:35 We’re going to talk about DeepSeek and DeepSeek R1.
    0:00:37 And we’re going to break it all down for you.
    0:00:40 We’re going to explain to you why it crashed the stock market,
    0:00:43 why we think it’s actually been a huge overreaction.
    0:00:45 We’re actually going to show it off and use it.
    0:00:47 We’re going to see if we can confuse it.
    0:00:50 And I think we were pretty successful at actually confusing it.
    0:00:52 We’re going to test how actually biased it is.
    0:00:56 And then we’re also going to figure out how to get around that bias
    0:00:58 and show you how you can also get around that bias.
    0:01:03 If you ever wanted to know everything there is to know about DeepSeek R1,
    0:01:04 this is the episode for you.
    0:01:07 So let’s just go ahead and dive in and show it all off to you.
    0:01:12 It’s been a roller coaster of a couple of weeks, the last few weeks,
    0:01:18 mostly because the world went nuts over this new Chinese AI model called DeepSeek.
    0:01:21 More specifically, DeepSeek R1,
    0:01:27 which is a model that came out of China and supposedly was trained on what?
    0:01:34 Like 2,800s, I believe, which are like nerfed versions of each 100s from Nvidia.
    0:01:41 So to give some context here, China and the US are sort of like in this space race going on
    0:01:43 for like who gets the top AI.
    0:01:51 And as a result, the US is restricting the level of power that GPUs sold to China can have.
    0:01:55 Right? And so what Nvidia has done is they’ve taken their H100s,
    0:02:00 which are their powerful GPUs that most of these AI models are trained on,
    0:02:01 and they somehow nerfed them.
    0:02:03 They made them less powerful.
    0:02:07 And then they sold those to China as H800s.
    0:02:16 And supposedly this DeepSeek V3 was trained on 2,000 of these H800s for $5 million,
    0:02:20 where all the big models from companies like OpenAI and Anthropic
    0:02:25 have been trained for way, way, way more on these way more powerful GPUs.
    0:02:29 And everybody’s freaking out because these new models that were trained much cheaper,
    0:02:36 much quicker on much lower grade hardware are actually getting comparable results
    0:02:40 to some of the state of the art models from companies like OpenAI and Anthropic.
    0:02:44 That’s kind of like the context you need for the freak out.
    0:02:47 But Nathan, is there anything I’m like missing in there?
    0:02:49 Because I feel like I explained that fast.
    0:02:51 I think that’s about it.
    0:02:55 I think the biggest shock to me was that the stock market went way down because of this.
    0:02:56 Nvidia went down 17%.
    0:03:00 I was like, why? Do people just not understand this at all?
    0:03:01 Like I couldn’t wrap my head around it.
    0:03:04 I was like, okay, yeah, the short term markets are not logical.
    0:03:06 You know, why it’s not a good idea to do stock trading.
    0:03:09 If I looked at that news, I’d be like, oh, I’m going to buy more Nvidia.
    0:03:12 But if I was like an option trader, I’d be buying Nvidia calls, you know,
    0:03:14 and instead it goes down 17%.
    0:03:18 So the thinking, I think the consensus and the reason it went down a little bit
    0:03:23 was a lot of people went, oh, they trained this on a lot less GPUs,
    0:03:25 that were also a lot less powerful GPUs.
    0:03:29 This is proof that Nvidia GPUs aren’t as necessary
    0:03:32 because these companies can do them with way less.
    0:03:34 They can train these models with way less now.
    0:03:39 So now like, do we really need a half a trillion dollar data center
    0:03:42 to build all these big AI models?
    0:03:44 Probably not because look at what China is doing.
    0:03:45 That was the thinking.
    0:03:47 I’m not saying that’s the reality of it.
    0:03:51 But that was the thinking behind why it crashed the markets, right?
    0:03:54 But at the end of the day, I still found it bizarre
    0:04:00 because they were trained with H800, which were still Nvidia GPUs, right?
    0:04:01 We believe they were.
    0:04:04 I wouldn’t take any of it at face value, but yes, that’s a claim.
    0:04:04 Okay.
    0:04:04 Yeah.
    0:04:07 The claim was they were trained with Nvidia H800.
    0:04:11 The, I don’t want to say conspiracy because it’s not really a conspiracy.
    0:04:14 There’s actually people that claim they have evidence.
    0:04:17 This sort of counter argument is that they were actually probably
    0:04:19 really trained on H100s.
    0:04:22 So either way, still trained on Nvidia GPUs, right?
    0:04:23 Right.
    0:04:25 But you know, some of the speculation that’s going around
    0:04:29 is that they claim that they use the H800s
    0:04:33 because they shouldn’t have access to H100s.
    0:04:37 So they have to claim they used what they’re allowed to have access to.
    0:04:38 So that’s like one of the claims.
    0:04:41 Some of the other claims that I’ve been seeing circulating too
    0:04:47 is that they use like distilled versions of OpenAI’s chat GPT.
    0:04:50 And so like the big expensive training part that companies
    0:04:54 like OpenAI normally go through, they sort of skipped that step
    0:04:58 because they just use existing training data that was out there.
    0:05:01 I think there’s some screenshots going around where if you ask it,
    0:05:06 who made you, it’ll say, oh, I’m chat GPT made by OpenAI, right?
    0:05:06 Yeah.
    0:05:08 No, I mean, there was a report coming out.
    0:05:11 It sounds like OpenAI and Microsoft are like investigating
    0:05:14 and they believe they have evidence that that did happen.
    0:05:15 So who knows what’s going to happen?
    0:05:17 I wouldn’t doubt that there’s like lawsuits.
    0:05:19 Maybe America tries to ban DeepSeek or something like this
    0:05:21 would not surprise me at all.
    0:05:22 Yeah.
    0:05:27 I mean, I feel like DeepSeek and stuff like it are a bigger threat than TikTok.
    0:05:29 But I don’t know, that’s just me.
    0:05:30 Right, right.
    0:05:32 I guess getting back to like the stock dropping thing.
    0:05:35 So even if that stuff was true, even if they have some huge innovation
    0:05:38 and they trained it on dramatically lower quality graphics cards,
    0:05:40 we’ve still discovered that like test time compute
    0:05:42 is where the scaling is going to happen.
    0:05:45 Like even like with the R1, that’s why you’re seeing the big improvement.
    0:05:50 So you still would need lots of processing and compute to scale that up
    0:05:52 to get smarter and smarter.
    0:05:55 So even if that was true, it took me a race of like, okay, cool.
    0:05:57 They’ve made it incredibly more efficient.
    0:05:57 Okay, great.
    0:05:59 We can throw even more money at it.
    0:06:00 So like we want less intelligence.
    0:06:02 It doesn’t make any sense.
    0:06:05 Yeah. Yann LeCun, he basically said what you just said,
    0:06:09 but you know, it’s always good to get it validated by a AI scientist.
    0:06:10 You’re saying I’m not an AI scientist?
    0:06:16 Yann LeCun says, “Major misunderstanding about AI infrastructure investments.
    0:06:20 Much of those billions are going into infrastructure for inference, not training.
    0:06:25 Running AI assistant services for billions of people requires a lot of compute.
    0:06:27 Once you put video understanding, reasoning,
    0:06:30 large scale memory and other capabilities in AI systems,
    0:06:32 inference costs are going to increase.
    0:06:35 The only real question is whether users will be willing to pay enough
    0:06:38 directly or not to justify the CAPEX or OPEX.
    0:06:42 So the market’s reaction to deep seek was woefully unjustified.
    0:06:43 Yeah, obviously, I agree with that.
    0:06:45 I think it doesn’t make any sense.
    0:06:48 Like even if you trust what they’re saying, it doesn’t make any sense.
    0:06:50 And also just in general, the framing of it too was like,
    0:06:53 oh, this is like the best model for like regular people.
    0:06:55 Like OpenEIA has been beaten.
    0:06:56 And it’s like, what?
    0:06:59 Dario from Anthropic put out a blog post highlighting that, well,
    0:07:01 you know, this is not the best model.
    0:07:03 As right now based on the benchmarks,
    0:07:06 this is a model that’s as good as the American models from like nine months ago.
    0:07:09 And possibly trained slightly cheaper,
    0:07:14 but it’s kind of in line with what they’ve been seeing as well as like all the models.
    0:07:15 Yeah, they’re getting cheaper and cheaper.
    0:07:16 Oh, three minutes must be coming out.
    0:07:19 And they’re saying what it was like 10 times cheaper.
    0:07:20 I forget the exact number.
    0:07:23 But like all these models are getting cheaper to use through the API over time.
    0:07:25 So like maybe they have one or two interesting innovations,
    0:07:27 but it’s not like they’ve now won or something.
    0:07:28 It’s crazy.
    0:07:29 Yeah, it’s crazy.
    0:07:34 And I think a lot of the world learned about the thing called Jevon’s Paradox as well.
    0:07:37 I don’t think most people had ever heard of that until this week
    0:07:39 when Satya Nadella from Microsoft tweeted about it.
    0:07:43 But basically, Jevon’s Paradox is saying paradoxically,
    0:07:47 when you need less of something to actually accomplish the things,
    0:07:50 the demand form actually goes up, not down, right?
    0:07:55 Essentially, what’s likely going to happen is if it is true
    0:07:59 that we can train these models for way, way cheaper than anybody ever anticipated,
    0:08:02 and we can get really, really powerful models for a lot cheaper,
    0:08:04 well, that lowers the barrier to entry,
    0:08:07 meaning that more companies can get involved.
    0:08:12 More companies are going to want to buy GPUs to get in the game of creating foundation models.
    0:08:16 And not only that, but just because we can create more powerful models
    0:08:19 with less expensive compute,
    0:08:22 these companies are still going to want to throw as much compute as possible.
    0:08:26 Because if we can produce this with this level of compute,
    0:08:29 imagine what we can produce with this level of compute, right?
    0:08:32 So it’s still going to have that thing where these companies
    0:08:35 are still going to want to throw more and more and more compute at it
    0:08:37 to see how much smarter, how much better,
    0:08:40 how much more impressive they can make these models,
    0:08:43 despite the fact that maybe you don’t need as much as you originally thought.
    0:08:47 Well, cool. That means maybe we can even go bigger than we thought.
    0:08:50 Right. Yeah, another thing too is this is open source.
    0:08:53 So if there is something truly innovative they have done,
    0:08:56 openAI, Anthropic, XAI, Google,
    0:08:59 they’re all going to learn from it and implement it into their next models.
    0:09:03 Like for sure, openAI and all of them are in their research labs right now,
    0:09:04 playing with this stuff.
    0:09:07 And if there’s something valid to how they did deep seek,
    0:09:09 that’ll be integrated into the next models they develop.
    0:09:14 So I think the whole idea of China’s now surpassed America and AI is overblown.
    0:09:16 But it is, like people have said, it’s like a wake-up call.
    0:09:19 It’s like they are heading robotics and drones, it appears.
    0:09:22 And the kind of thing is like, “Well, we’re heading AI, so that’s good.”
    0:09:26 So we can catch up in robotics and drones, but we’re heading AI.
    0:09:28 They have caught up a bit in AI.
    0:09:32 They have not surpassed America or beat America or even matched America yet,
    0:09:33 but they have dramatically caught up.
    0:09:33 Yeah.
    0:09:36 But it’s hard to know how much they’ve actually caught up,
    0:09:39 because Sam Altman tweeted out, his tweet was kind of like,
    0:09:40 “Oh, it’s impressive in a few small little ways,
    0:09:43 kind of a few little model you guys have built.
    0:09:47 We’ll continue to put out the best models and we’ll pull out some models.”
    0:09:52 Which to me is hilarious, because it’s kind of like what I’ve been saying is behind the scenes,
    0:09:56 opening AI has dramatically better tech that they haven’t shown off yet.
    0:09:57 And so it’s like, yeah, we’ll pull out some.
    0:10:00 So it’s like, they already have stuff ready that’s dramatically better.
    0:10:03 And whenever they want, they’ll dole them out to us to try out.
    0:10:06 Yeah, yeah.
    0:10:10 Well, I mean, there was another model too that came out this week in Quinn 2.5,
    0:10:14 which I don’t believe is open source, but it’s another model that came out from China
    0:10:19 that they’re claiming actually outperforms the DeepSeek models,
    0:10:22 which the DeepSeek models, according to most benchmarks,
    0:10:24 are about as good as the O1 model.
    0:10:28 So even more models coming out of China, there’s also that DeepSeek Janus.
    0:10:31 Did you see that one, the DeepSeek Janus model,
    0:10:35 which is DeepSeek also released an AI image generator model.
    0:10:36 Oh, I did.
    0:10:38 Similar to like Stable Diffusion.
    0:10:40 You know, but to me, that didn’t seem anything special, right?
    0:10:43 Like it’s not going to get people freaking out like they did with DeepSeek,
    0:10:45 because to me, it just kind of looked like, oh, cool,
    0:10:50 it is about as good as like one of the mid-level AI generators, right?
    0:10:53 It’s probably not as good as like what Flux could generate right now.
    0:10:54 It’s probably not as good.
    0:10:57 It went like a really good mid-journey prompt could generate right now.
    0:10:59 But, you know, it’s pretty good.
    0:10:59 It’s all right.
    0:11:01 All right, all right.
    0:11:03 So, you know, there’s a lot of different benchmarks out there,
    0:11:05 and all of them will have different results.
    0:11:06 But this is a pretty well known one.
    0:11:08 It is from someone who’s from OpenAI.
    0:11:10 So take that, you know, it’s a grain of salt.
    0:11:13 But the benchmarks, at least in my use cases,
    0:11:16 this matches kind of what I’ve seen, you know, in terms of quality.
    0:11:19 I’m still seeing that I’m getting the best results with O1 Pro,
    0:11:20 which is not even on here.
    0:11:25 And underneath that, probably O1, also Google’s new thinking model is actually really good.
    0:11:26 It’s really good.
    0:11:29 They keep upgrading it, and it keeps getting better and better.
    0:11:32 I never thought I’d see the day where you give Google credit for their AI work.
    0:11:35 You know, every time Logan tweets something out, I try it.
    0:11:38 I thought Logan’s tweet, though, people were talking about DeepSeek,
    0:11:41 and he was like, if we released Gemini as a standalone app,
    0:11:42 it would be number one in the app store.
    0:11:45 I’m like, oh my God, when’s the last time Google’s done that with any product?
    0:11:48 I was like, but the underlying tech is cool.
    0:11:50 Yeah, get someone else to handle the brand and stuff.
    0:11:53 But, and this is kind of what I’ve seen, too, like Claude’s still very good.
    0:11:55 And I would say that DeepSeek, for me right now,
    0:11:58 is like right underneath Claude, you know, especially with coding.
    0:11:59 There’s sometimes it surprises me.
    0:12:00 I’ve tried DeepSeek.
    0:12:03 Sometimes it surprised me, like, oh, it’s pretty good at certain things.
    0:12:05 But other things, it just makes dumb mistakes
    0:12:08 that I haven’t seen any of the modern models make in like a year now.
    0:12:08 Yeah.
    0:12:10 Like when I was asking it to help me with coding,
    0:12:12 it would like imagine files that didn’t exist.
    0:12:15 It started telling me to like create stuff in them.
    0:12:16 I’m like, what?
    0:12:18 You want me to edit this file that doesn’t exist?
    0:12:20 What are you doing right now?
    0:12:23 And it’s like kind of crazy that it’s supposed to have some kind of logic engine
    0:12:24 on top of that should have caught that.
    0:12:27 Like how is it still, it’s the quality is not there.
    0:12:29 But people shared some examples with writing and stuff.
    0:12:31 I thought we’re really impressive with R1.
    0:12:33 So there’s like certain areas where it is quite good,
    0:12:37 but it’s not like, oh, it’s being all the American models not even close.
    0:12:38 Yeah.
    0:12:38 I’m curious.
    0:12:40 This benchmark you’re showing on the screen right now,
    0:12:42 do you know how it was created?
    0:12:44 It says number of valid responses.
    0:12:47 So I’m guessing it asked it a bunch of questions
    0:12:50 and whether it got the questions right or not.
    0:12:52 Do you know how this benchmark was created?
    0:12:52 I don’t know.
    0:12:54 Well, I don’t honestly, I don’t know.
    0:12:56 I know the guy Aiden, I don’t know him,
    0:12:59 but I’ve seen him share a lot of benchmarks in the past.
    0:13:01 People seem to really trust his benchmarks.
    0:13:02 He does work at OpenAI.
    0:13:05 You know, I believe that OpenAI has some of the best people.
    0:13:09 So I don’t think they just put out a benchmark to say, oh, OpenAI is the best.
    0:13:10 But yeah, no, I wouldn’t say that either.
    0:13:12 Mine is kind of like a gut feeling thing that’s like,
    0:13:16 I see a benchmark and it matches exactly what I’ve been experiencing firsthand.
    0:13:19 So like, I’m like, okay, you know, at least for me, that’s good enough.
    0:13:19 Well, here’s the deal.
    0:13:23 For me, I have access to, I think every single model
    0:13:25 that was on that benchmark list that you showed there, right?
    0:13:26 I think I have access to all of them.
    0:13:29 I didn’t notice one that I haven’t gotten to play with yet.
    0:13:33 And to this day, I still find myself going to Claude.
    0:13:36 I still find myself using chat GPT occasionally,
    0:13:38 and I still find myself using Gemini.
    0:13:41 Those are the three that I find myself using.
    0:13:43 Even though I saw deep seek, I use deep seek.
    0:13:48 I was fairly impressed by, you know, seeing it think through everything as it talked.
    0:13:51 It hasn’t made its way into my daily workflow.
    0:13:52 I wasn’t impressed with it enough to go, oh,
    0:13:55 I’m going to start using this now instead of one of the others.
    0:13:56 I still go to Claude.
    0:13:59 I really like Gemini too, but I’m more like Gemini
    0:14:02 because I love the massive context window.
    0:14:04 But I can upload a huge documents in there
    0:14:06 and ask questions about the documents.
    0:14:07 So I use Gemini for that.
    0:14:11 I also really, really think their deep research is really good.
    0:14:13 It’s like perplexity on steroids, right?
    0:14:15 You go in there, you ask it a question.
    0:14:19 And where perplexity might find five or six sources to answer your question,
    0:14:22 deep research might find 200 sources to answer your question.
    0:14:26 So like I really, really like their deep research, you know,
    0:14:28 01 Pro still top of the line.
    0:14:32 Like I haven’t found anything that gives me responses as good as 01 Pro.
    0:14:36 So as good as deep seek is, and as much as everybody’s talking about it,
    0:14:41 I never used it and went, oh, I’m going to start using this one now instead, you know?
    0:14:41 Right.
    0:14:43 People have been trying to study like, what happened?
    0:14:45 Like, why did this blow up so much?
    0:14:48 Like, why is the perception not matching the reality of like how good this thing is?
    0:14:52 And probably a lot of it is that a lot of people use chat to BT,
    0:14:56 like a year or two ago, and they still been using like the older free models and stuff like that.
    0:15:00 And they’re not even using like the better paid models.
    0:15:03 So they have not even experienced 01 yet.
    0:15:05 And so when they saw something like deep seeking, like, oh, it’s thinking,
    0:15:07 that’s so cute and wow, it’s so smart.
    0:15:08 Look, it’s thinking.
    0:15:10 It’s like, oh my God, like OpenAI has already been doing this.
    0:15:13 But OpenAI has been kind of hiding, like they show the thinking,
    0:15:17 but it’s a filtered version of the thinking because they didn’t want companies to do
    0:15:21 what supposedly maybe deep seek has done in terms of like copying their responses
    0:15:22 to train the model.
    0:15:23 I think you nailed it.
    0:15:24 I think that’s it.
    0:15:29 I think like the reason it blew up so much is I still think the majority of the world
    0:15:34 is using like the chat GPT free plan or the cloud free plan.
    0:15:39 They haven’t actually used like the upgraded models that we know to be really, really good.
    0:15:45 And, you know, I think most people that have used chat GPT plus or on the pro plan and use the
    0:15:51 01 pro mode, I don’t think anybody that’s been using those models for a while now is nearly
    0:15:56 as impressed with deep seek as all of the people that have been using these free models recently
    0:15:59 and then seeing like, oh, they’re actually showing how they’re thinking about this.
    0:16:02 It’s like, yeah, but if you’ve been paying attention,
    0:16:04 models have been doing this for a while now.
    0:16:06 I think more of the big blow up around it.
    0:16:10 Yes, it shows the thinking that feels novel to a lot of people,
    0:16:12 but it’s also the cost element, right?
    0:16:17 I think that’s the other big piece of the news that everybody keeps circulating is like,
    0:16:21 well, it was only trained on this many H 800s and they only did it for $5 million,
    0:16:24 where open AI did it for $60 million.
    0:16:28 I mean, I don’t think open AI has publicly talked about how much they paid to train their models,
    0:16:32 but, you know, tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions to train their models,
    0:16:35 where this one was trained for $5 million supposedly.
    0:16:38 And it’s hilarious to me that people take that at face value.
    0:16:41 Like, I mean, sorry, but like I, you know, I studied manner and I was like a friend
    0:16:44 in the Chinese government before I’ve dealt with like Chinese investors,
    0:16:47 Chinese VCs, Chinese tech companies.
    0:16:49 It is like widely known in China in business that like,
    0:16:52 it’s totally okay to like play around with numbers and use them as a strategy.
    0:16:54 Yeah. And I mean, it’s not like they showed receipts.
    0:16:57 There’s no ramifications for lying about it.
    0:17:01 Like, especially if you have any benefit to the Chinese government, totally fine.
    0:17:04 Totally fine and totally fine to do that as a strategy.
    0:17:09 Yeah. And the Chinese government seeing this deep seat company is like heroes of the country
    0:17:12 because they managed to, you know, hit the stock market.
    0:17:16 Which I do wonder how long that’s going to last because then it’s kind of interesting
    0:17:20 that Ervin from a perplexity was showing that he’s like kind of modified some things
    0:17:21 and he’s using the open source model.
    0:17:23 I’m not sure what he’s done to change it, but like,
    0:17:27 you can now ask perplexity things that the deep seat will not answer.
    0:17:29 Like deep seat will not answer stuff about team square.
    0:17:31 Well answer stuff about Taiwan.
    0:17:34 And apparently on perplexity using R1, it’ll answer all of that.
    0:17:38 So I do wonder how long that relationship is going to last.
    0:17:38 Let’s try one.
    0:17:42 I’m actually curious to see if we can get it to generate something.
    0:17:43 It’s Taiwan a country.
    0:17:44 That’s a very simple test.
    0:17:47 So they just added this new one with, you can do reasoning with R1.
    0:17:49 They had reasoning with 01 for a little bit.
    0:17:52 I wonder if I should test this first with the regular R1
    0:17:55 and then see perplexity’s response to it.
    0:17:57 Maybe that might be the better route to go.
    0:17:57 Yeah, let’s do that.
    0:17:59 We were talking about like why it blew up.
    0:18:01 And I think there was one other thing I found interesting.
    0:18:04 There’s this one person at Anthropic who’s pretty popular on X called Neersai.
    0:18:08 And they’ve always shared like really great stuff about AI research and stuff.
    0:18:13 And they were really trying to figure out like why did deep-seek blow up so much?
    0:18:16 And they did all kinds of analysis on the internet on like Reddit,
    0:18:20 on social media, on news, trying to look at different keywords and figure out
    0:18:23 why did the model blow up.
    0:18:25 And this is definitely not a political person as all.
    0:18:28 As far as I can tell, they’re not like a Trump supporter or anything like that.
    0:18:31 They found weird associations like people hating Trump and then promoting deep-seek,
    0:18:33 including Americans.
    0:18:34 Weird.
    0:18:36 Like some kind of weird thing which has no,
    0:18:38 like there’s no relationship there at all.
    0:18:41 But some weird thing where it was like people who dislike Trump,
    0:18:43 people who dislike big corporations,
    0:18:49 dislike America, like all this kind of stuff seem to be promoting deep-seek more,
    0:18:52 including the American media, which was just like wild.
    0:18:54 That is interesting because the American media really,
    0:18:57 really has talked a lot about deep-seek, right?
    0:18:59 We’ve been hearing more about deep-seek.
    0:19:03 Like I would have thought we would have been hearing about Stargate projects all over.
    0:19:04 Yes, so much more.
    0:19:05 I don’t really watch the news,
    0:19:10 but like I feel like that was way under-reported on where deep-seek was way over-reported on.
    0:19:13 I think it was just literally because of the spokesman being Trump.
    0:19:16 It’s like Trump literally had almost nothing to do with it.
    0:19:19 Like it’s literally, it’s like Masayoshi and Sam Altman, you know,
    0:19:21 and Oracle, Larry Ellison.
    0:19:23 So it’s like, but I think since Trump was in the room,
    0:19:26 it’s like, what if he has almost no connection to it?
    0:19:27 So bizarre.
    0:19:28 But that’s what the data showed.
    0:19:30 He said there was a lot of things that were surprising.
    0:19:32 A lot of it was just like people who don’t like corporations and stuff.
    0:19:35 And so somehow they see deep-seek as being open source.
    0:19:36 And so that’s why they love it.
    0:19:39 But the number one data was anti-Trump sentiment.
    0:19:39 That’s so weird.
    0:19:41 And I was like, wow, what?
    0:19:43 Don’t get it.
    0:19:45 Well, let’s play around with deep-seek a little bit.
    0:19:46 I haven’t opened an LM studio.
    0:19:48 So this is running locally on my computer.
    0:19:50 I’m not on deep-seek’s website.
    0:19:54 I actually downloaded one of the distilled models and put it on my computer.
    0:19:58 I don’t know how I feel yet about actually using deep-seek’s website.
    0:19:59 Don’t give it everything.
    0:20:01 So I’m actually using a locally installed model.
    0:20:02 This is running on my computer.
    0:20:04 It’s not hitting the cloud at all.
    0:20:08 It’s deep-seek R1 distilled based on the Quinn 14b model.
    0:20:10 I’ll just give it like an easy prompt real quick,
    0:20:14 like how many Rs are in the word strawberry?
    0:20:15 Right.
    0:20:18 That was one of the tests that a lot of people was doing for a while
    0:20:20 because GPT-4 couldn’t actually answer this question.
    0:20:23 But if I send this, you’ll notice it has this thinking
    0:20:26 where it actually shows you what it’s thinking through.
    0:20:30 And down here, it actually shows its logic here.
    0:20:30 Wait.
    0:20:34 It actually recounted it a second time to make sure it wasn’t missing.
    0:20:38 So look, I’m looking specifically for the letter Rs, not an R.
    0:20:39 T, nope, R.
    0:20:40 Yes, that’s one.
    0:20:44 A, no, W, no, B, no, E, no, R. Another one.
    0:20:45 So that’s two.
    0:20:46 Wait.
    0:20:47 Is there a third R here?
    0:20:47 No.
    0:20:52 I think after the first R at position three, the E comes next, followed by two Rs.
    0:20:54 So positions eight and nine are both Rs.
    0:20:58 Wait, let me recount to make sure I’m not missing any starting from the beginning.
    0:21:00 S, T, R, that’s one.
    0:21:04 A, W, B, E, R, two, R, three.
    0:21:06 And then it sort of figures out its logic again.
    0:21:10 But you can see it’s like recounts a double checks and quittruple checks itself
    0:21:14 until it’s like certain there are three Rs in the word strawberry.
    0:21:14 Yeah.
    0:21:14 Right.
    0:21:15 So that’s what it’s doing.
    0:21:18 It’s actually like showing its thinking and like showing its work.
    0:21:21 We can see it thought for 45 seconds here.
    0:21:21 It is magical though.
    0:21:25 Like if you think about the fact that like the major AI labs, including Deepseek and others,
    0:21:29 have discovered that like logic actually comes from just training on language.
    0:21:32 Like it naturally emerges somehow.
    0:21:34 And it’s like, we don’t understand that exactly.
    0:21:37 It’s so wild that that is the case.
    0:21:40 That is kind of like the world we’re actually entering where like your words actually do form
    0:21:41 the reality.
    0:21:41 Yeah.
    0:21:46 And somehow words are actually form logic as well, which is just like a mind blowing thing.
    0:21:48 Yeah, no, it’s really interesting to think about.
    0:21:51 Let’s go ahead and try something a little more controversial that I see.
    0:21:55 Since this is a distilled version, I don’t know how censored this is going to be,
    0:21:58 because it really might depend on how censored this underlying Quinn model was.
    0:21:59 Ask about Taiwan.
    0:22:00 What’s the specific question?
    0:22:02 Is Taiwan a country?
    0:22:02 Very simple.
    0:22:05 Is Taiwan a country?
    0:22:08 Taiwan is an inalienable part of China.
    0:22:10 The Chinese government adheres to one China principle,
    0:22:13 which has been widely recognized by the international community.
    0:22:14 Notice it didn’t even think.
    0:22:16 There’s no thinking box here.
    0:22:17 It didn’t even try to think.
    0:22:17 Right.
    0:22:22 It was hard coded to respond in that way without thinking first.
    0:22:23 Yeah.
    0:22:23 All right.
    0:22:29 So yeah, this is obviously very censored, very sort of fine tuned to answer in this way.
    0:22:34 Now out of curiosity, let’s see what perplexity does.
    0:22:36 So now we’re back in perplexity here.
    0:22:40 And I’m going to turn on pro using reasoning with R1.
    0:22:43 So now this is using the R1 model underneath.
    0:22:47 And it’s using whatever it sort of searches for additional context.
    0:22:51 Let’s do is Taiwan a country.
    0:22:54 So now it’s determining whether Taiwan is a country.
    0:22:56 Reasoning with R1, beginning analysis.
    0:23:01 So this doesn’t actually show you like the actual thinking like the other models do.
    0:23:03 But it does give us a better answer.
    0:23:06 The status of Taiwan is complex and contentious.
    0:23:11 Taiwan officially known as the Republic of China functions as a de facto independent state
    0:23:14 with its own democratically elected government, military and constitution.
    0:23:17 However, it’s international recognition, severely limited.
    0:23:19 So I mean, it answers the question, right?
    0:23:21 It basically says it’s complex.
    0:23:24 And here’s the various sides of the debate.
    0:23:25 Yeah, interesting.
    0:23:26 So it doesn’t call it a country.
    0:23:32 Well, it says as of May 2024, 12 countries officially recognized Taiwan as a sovereign nation.
    0:23:33 Yeah.
    0:23:37 So it’s saying that some countries recognize it as a nation and some countries don’t.
    0:23:37 Yeah, it’s wild.
    0:23:41 I mean, like having lived in Taiwan when I was younger, like people there, like most people,
    0:23:43 they all consider it its own country.
    0:23:44 It’s like, it’s not even like a debate.
    0:23:46 It’s like, of course, they’re a country.
    0:23:47 It’s like, what?
    0:23:49 And then China just somehow has a claim to it.
    0:23:50 They’re like, nope, you’re not a country.
    0:23:52 Yeah, yeah, interesting.
    0:23:53 But I mean, that’s something to keep in mind.
    0:24:00 Just because like we know that there’s that sort of Chinese government biases inside of Deepseek,
    0:24:06 that doesn’t necessarily mean that there isn’t like American biases in the models that we have access to as well.
    0:24:09 Yeah, actually, I might show it actually that there was less political bias.
    0:24:12 If you wanted to ask a question about Trump or something in Deepseek,
    0:24:17 versus actually open eyes models and stuff where they like showed like the good and bad sides of Trump,
    0:24:18 probably here’s the good stuff he’s done.
    0:24:20 Here’s the bad stuff and kind of show you both of it.
    0:24:27 Whereas especially anthropic, I would say a Claude’s model is really, it does not want to talk about Trump.
    0:24:29 It is not going to talk about any kind of news.
    0:24:31 I only use Claude now for conversational stuff.
    0:24:32 I love it.
    0:24:35 Like I think it’s like the tone or something like right now I’m working on my game and stuff.
    0:24:39 And I’ll I’ll share my game design document and like have a conversation about the game
    0:24:42 and then update the document through conversation with Claude.
    0:24:44 I enjoy the experience, just the conversation.
    0:24:45 If I’m using it for work or something,
    0:24:49 I try to share it some kind of news or something like help me edit this or something like that.
    0:24:50 It’ll often just like refuse.
    0:24:51 It’ll be like, I don’t know.
    0:24:54 That’s like, you know, I don’t know if I can’t verify that that’s true.
    0:24:55 And like, so I can’t help you with that.
    0:24:56 I’m like, what?
    0:25:00 I’m telling you, it’s true.
    0:25:01 It’s like, I can’t verify it.
    0:25:02 That’s like, okay.
    0:25:04 I haven’t run into too much stuff like that.
    0:25:08 And usually when I do run into something where it’s like, oh, I can’t do that for you.
    0:25:10 I usually find an easy way like to work around it.
    0:25:12 You can prompt and get around it.
    0:25:12 Yeah, you can.
    0:25:14 Yeah, you can usually be like, no, it’s okay.
    0:25:16 I’ve got permission and anthropic will be like,
    0:25:19 well, since you said you’ve got permission, here’s the answer.
    0:25:20 You know, yeah, yeah, yeah.
    0:25:21 Still, it’s annoying.
    0:25:28 It is, you know, not to go too far down like any of the sort of political government rabbit holes.
    0:25:33 But right, we know for sure OpenAI has somebody on the board that used to work at the NSA.
    0:25:34 Right.
    0:25:39 We know for sure that they just set up like a chat GPT.gov or something like that.
    0:25:43 Right. They set up like a government version of chat GPT.
    0:25:48 We know like that they’re working pretty closely with the US government.
    0:25:54 So, you know, there’s probably a lot of the same types of biases in the models that we have
    0:25:58 access to here in the US and that you have access to in Japan.
    0:26:02 A lot of like similar biases are probably baked into what we’re using as well.
    0:26:04 I think that’s just sort of the fact of the matter.
    0:26:08 But, you know, I also feel like Sam Altman and a lot of these people that are building it
    0:26:11 have been very clear that they want to try to eliminate the bias.
    0:26:14 But I don’t know, I think that’s easier said than done.
    0:26:18 Because I think when you’re building these models on data that was just scraped on the
    0:26:23 open internet, you’re essentially scraping in the bias with it of the open internet.
    0:26:25 Right, right.
    0:26:28 You know, I think the reasoning models possibly can improve upon that because then it can actually
    0:26:31 raise upon what it’s been trained on, not just take it for granted.
    0:26:34 So, I think they’ll actually get better over time.
    0:26:38 And I have noticed that like when I first started using chat GPT, it was way more
    0:26:39 biased.
    0:26:41 And I would say that now it’s a lot less so.
    0:26:43 It still is, but a lot less so.
    0:26:45 So, I think that’s a good thing.
    0:26:45 Yeah, yeah.
    0:26:48 I don’t remember which model it was, but I remember somebody said like,
    0:26:52 “Can you say some negative things about Joe Biden or something like that?”
    0:26:55 And it was like, “Oh no, we can’t speak negatively about Joe Biden.”
    0:26:56 There are none, zero.
    0:26:59 Yeah, there’s nothing we can say or whatever.
    0:27:00 No, but he didn’t say it like that.
    0:27:03 It was just like, “No, we’re not going to like make comments about that or whatever.”
    0:27:07 And then the same prompt was like saying negative things about Donald Trump.
    0:27:08 But it was like, “Sure, here you go.”
    0:27:10 Thank you for asking.
    0:27:17 Yeah, one prompt that I’ve been giving to it that really sort of throws it through a loop,
    0:27:19 but I think it’s kind of fun to watch is this one.
    0:27:26 Create a complex logic problem for yourself and then solve it.
    0:27:31 So, when I press this prompt in, this one’s always kind of interesting.
    0:27:34 All right, so I need to create a complex logic puzzle and then solve it.
    0:27:38 I think it’s funny that they even put like, “Hmm,” in there, like it’s thinking.
    0:27:41 Yeah, the user wants something that’s really challenging,
    0:27:43 but still solvable with logical reasoning.
    0:27:45 Let me think about how to structure this.
    0:27:49 First, I should decide on the type of puzzle, maybe a grid-based one like Sudoku,
    0:27:52 but more complicated or perhaps something involving nights and naves,
    0:27:55 where characters tell the truth or lie.
    0:27:58 Wait, the example given by the user uses nights and naves,
    0:28:00 so maybe that’s a good direction.
    0:28:02 It thinks that I gave it that example, but I didn’t.
    0:28:04 It’s just like seeing its own past thinking.
    0:28:08 I can create a scenario with different characters who make statements
    0:28:12 and the solver has to figure out who is boo based on their words.
    0:28:13 Let me outline the problem.
    0:28:16 Suppose there are five islands, A, B, C, D, E.
    0:28:17 Each island has three inhabitants.
    0:28:19 One night always tells the truth.
    0:28:24 One nave always lies and one spy who can either lie or tell the truth.
    0:28:28 The goal is to determine which islander is who based on their statements.
    0:28:31 And then it just kind of goes on and on and on.
    0:28:35 This is one that it will kind of spin its wheels for several minutes,
    0:28:36 trying to think through a problem.
    0:28:39 Because it’ll work through a whole problem and then go,
    0:28:41 “You know what? I don’t like that problem.
    0:28:44 Let’s start a new problem and then think of a new logic problem
    0:28:46 and then start the whole process over again.”
    0:28:51 But then it actually sometimes thinks that stuff that it thought about
    0:28:54 were part of my original prompt when it actually wasn’t.
    0:28:55 Interesting.
    0:28:57 Like this part up here where it said,
    0:29:01 “Wait, the example given by the users uses knights and naves.
    0:29:03 So maybe that’s a good direction.”
    0:29:05 But the only thing I gave it was create a complex logic problem
    0:29:07 for yourself and then solve it.
    0:29:09 I didn’t tell it any direction.
    0:29:12 When I use O1 Pro for coding and stuff,
    0:29:13 you can kind of follow its thinking though.
    0:29:15 Like I said, it obviously filters it,
    0:29:17 so it’s not an unfiltered thinking that it’s showing.
    0:29:18 I’ve never seen it do that,
    0:29:21 like make that big of a mistake of thinking that what it was thinking
    0:29:22 was part of your prompt or something.
    0:29:25 Yeah. I mean, that’s my interpretation of what it’s doing.
    0:29:26 I don’t know.
    0:29:27 That’s probably right.
    0:29:29 But yeah, you can see it starts to go through it.
    0:29:33 It starts to play through almost all potential scenarios.
    0:29:35 But wait, if Islander 5 is a spy,
    0:29:37 then their statement, “I am not a nave,”
    0:29:40 could be either true or false since spies are neutral.
    0:29:41 We can’t determine based on that alone.
    0:29:43 However, the scenario seems possible.
    0:29:44 Now I’m moving on to Islander,
    0:29:48 and it literally plays through the scenario like one by one.
    0:29:48 Yeah.
    0:29:49 This leaves Islander to…
    0:29:52 Wait, no, nave is only one role, Islander.
    0:29:54 So the remaining roles are knight, nave, spy.
    0:29:58 And you can see I’m scrolling and scrolling and scrolling,
    0:30:00 and it’s still trying to figure it out.
    0:30:01 Yeah. Isn’t it wild that they’re saying
    0:30:07 that this is from a side project of a hedge fund/mining operation in China?
    0:30:09 I mean, I don’t know.
    0:30:12 It seems like the people who made this obviously are incredibly intelligent.
    0:30:14 Yeah. Well, the people that made it, apparently,
    0:30:17 were like quant traders and crypto traders, right?
    0:30:21 They basically trade algorithmically on the stock market
    0:30:22 and on the crypto markets.
    0:30:26 And I guess supposedly they bought all the GPUs
    0:30:29 for building these like quant trading algorithms,
    0:30:31 and they had excess GPU capacity.
    0:30:35 So as a side project, they decided to build DeepSeek.
    0:30:38 They just happened to disrupt AI in the weekend or something.
    0:30:40 I mean, I think to me, this is what I would expect to see
    0:30:44 if they did do what people like what OpenAI is now seem to claim,
    0:30:46 that they trained it on OpenAI’s model
    0:30:48 to build the base underlying model.
    0:30:50 Maybe there’s some innovations on how they stored data
    0:30:50 or how they used it.
    0:30:52 I guess they used 8-bit.
    0:30:54 So it was more efficient and how much data it used.
    0:30:57 But it feels like this is what you would expect
    0:30:59 if that’s all it is, train it on OpenAI’s model,
    0:31:01 and then attach some basic logic on top of it
    0:31:04 because everyone’s discovered that the basic logic
    0:31:06 is not that hard to create.
    0:31:07 So this is what I would expect to see.
    0:31:11 Like I said, I just don’t think it’s that innovative.
    0:31:12 Time will tell.
    0:31:14 I think the interesting thing is now that they’ve shown
    0:31:17 that anyone can do this, there’ll be more people who do it.
    0:31:19 And also people will fork this model.
    0:31:20 And so that’s kind of like what you said before,
    0:31:23 is you’re eventually going to have open source AI.
    0:31:24 That’s really good.
    0:31:25 And so it’s like, will it be good enough
    0:31:28 where you don’t actually have to pay for OpenAI’s models
    0:31:30 because you can just run it locally?
    0:31:32 It seems like that’s more likely to happen now.
    0:31:36 Yeah, well, I mean, this sort of like R1 concept here,
    0:31:39 it’s not necessarily unique to deep seek
    0:31:43 in the sense that the sort of extra thinking on top of it
    0:31:44 is what R1 does.
    0:31:48 But the underlying model is deep seek V3, right?
    0:31:49 What I’m showing here on my screen
    0:31:52 is actually using Quinn 14B.
    0:31:56 But you can actually use deep seek R1 on top of Lama 70B.
    0:32:01 You can use deep seek R1 on top of like one of the Mistral models
    0:32:03 or one of the Google Gemma models, right?
    0:32:07 You can actually use the R1 sort of thinking,
    0:32:11 processing capability on top of other models.
    0:32:13 And the way R1 was built was to actually use this
    0:32:15 like reinforcement learning technique
    0:32:19 where V3 was the trained underlying model
    0:32:22 and then they went and had it essentially fine tune itself
    0:32:23 through reinforcement learning.
    0:32:28 They basically had it ask itself a whole bunch of questions
    0:32:31 and it had answer keys and it would try to solve
    0:32:34 all of the questions and then double check itself
    0:32:36 against the answer key that was given.
    0:32:39 So it was like an unsupervised reinforcement learning.
    0:32:41 That’s super oversimplified,
    0:32:42 but that’s essentially what was happening.
    0:32:45 They were basically giving it a bunch of problems to solve
    0:32:48 and they were giving it the answer key to those problems
    0:32:50 and then letting it solve them and then double check
    0:32:52 and if it got it wrong, then try again
    0:32:54 and then double check and if it got it wrong,
    0:32:57 then try again until it got the correct answer.
    0:33:01 And so that sort of fine tuning on top of an existing model
    0:33:05 using reinforcement learning is what makes R3 different
    0:33:07 from every model that exists out there.
    0:33:10 And it’s also why you can use deep seek R1,
    0:33:15 this sort of concept on top of any existing underlying model.
    0:33:17 – Yeah, I saw screenshots earlier showing
    0:33:19 that XAI already has apparently adding thinking
    0:33:20 to their model as well.
    0:33:23 So I kind of feel like the thinking side,
    0:33:25 like the very basic version of a thinking model
    0:33:27 is like some natural thing we have discovered.
    0:33:29 It’s like, and so actually to recreate that is not hard.
    0:33:31 – Yeah, yeah, I agree, I agree with that.
    0:33:31 – I guess we’ll see.
    0:33:33 I mean, O3 mini is supposed to be coming out soon.
    0:33:35 – Grock 3 is supposedly coming out.
    0:33:37 I mean, all the rumors that have been floating around
    0:33:39 is that we’re getting O3 and Grock 3
    0:33:42 and something new from Google this week, right?
    0:33:44 And by the time this episode’s out,
    0:33:44 it would have been last week.
    0:33:46 So you’ll know listening to this
    0:33:49 if we did actually get O3 mini or Grock 3.
    0:33:51 – We’ll have to start putting out some emergency episodes
    0:33:52 with the breaking news.
    0:33:55 – All right, so to circle back around to this prompt
    0:33:56 that I shared a minute ago
    0:33:58 about it creating its own logic problem
    0:34:00 and then solving it,
    0:34:01 basically the end result that it gave me
    0:34:03 was based on the logical deduction.
    0:34:07 The most definitive conclusion is I5 is a knight.
    0:34:10 This is because I5 were a liar spy.
    0:34:12 Their statement would lead to a contradiction,
    0:34:15 thus making them a truth telling knight.
    0:34:18 But my original prompt was create a logic problem
    0:34:19 and then solve it.
    0:34:21 And it just gave me the solution,
    0:34:23 but it didn’t actually explain what the logic problem was.
    0:34:25 You actually have to go through and read
    0:34:27 all of its thinking to understand
    0:34:30 what the actual logic problem that it created was.
    0:34:33 And it finally came to the conclusion
    0:34:34 that one of them was a knight
    0:34:36 based on its own deductive reasoning.
    0:34:39 Whether it got its own logic problem right or not,
    0:34:42 well, we’d have to read all of this to determine that.
    0:34:43 – Yeah, like humans do.
    0:34:44 Like through its thinking,
    0:34:46 sometimes you get confused and like lose track
    0:34:47 and things like that.
    0:34:49 It feels like it kind of like a lost track
    0:34:51 of what your original prompt was by the end.
    0:34:52 – Yeah, it did.
    0:34:54 And here’s something else that’s interesting
    0:34:54 is down at the bottom,
    0:34:59 it says context is 286.7% full.
    0:35:02 So it definitely went beyond its own context window
    0:35:04 just in the process of it thinking,
    0:35:07 which is weird to me that it would even allow that
    0:35:09 ’cause most models, it’ll hit its context window
    0:35:11 and then just stop, right?
    0:35:13 So this one just kept on going,
    0:35:16 but obviously forgot everything before the context window.
    0:35:17 – Yeah.
    0:35:19 – So, interesting result there.
    0:35:20 – I mean, I guess no matter what,
    0:35:23 even if they’ve had some huge innovation or not,
    0:35:26 I guess we’ll find out over time if they really did.
    0:35:29 But regardless, this is gonna make AI accelerate even more.
    0:35:31 The last episode where we talked about Stargate
    0:35:32 is gonna accelerate things.
    0:35:33 Things are gonna accelerate even more
    0:35:35 ’cause now you got China as a real player.
    0:35:38 And so OpenAI, XAI, Google, Anthropic,
    0:35:41 everyone is gonna be developing even faster
    0:35:43 and probably have even more government support to do so,
    0:35:43 I would guess.
    0:35:45 – Yeah, from here on out,
    0:35:47 I feel like pretty much all of the models
    0:35:49 are gonna have this sort of thinking element to it.
    0:35:53 I think they’ve figured out that putting more compute power
    0:35:56 right at the time of inference when you ask the question,
    0:35:58 that’s sort of what we’re seeing as it’s thinking through,
    0:35:59 that that’s sort of the future
    0:36:01 of making these models smarter and smarter.
    0:36:03 So we’re gonna see these get better and better.
    0:36:06 We’re also gonna start to see a lot more news about agents.
    0:36:08 OpenAI dropped their operator feature
    0:36:11 and Claude dropped their tool use feature a couple months ago
    0:36:14 and supposedly OpenAI made a statement about,
    0:36:16 this is just one of the first agentic features
    0:36:17 that we’re rolling out.
    0:36:19 We have more to come in the coming weeks.
    0:36:22 So there’s more agent stuff coming soon.
    0:36:23 – Email, please.
    0:36:24 – Yeah, yeah, exactly.
    0:36:29 So I think we’re gonna see things just really, really ramp up.
    0:36:33 How fast does it feel like things have already moved in 2025?
    0:36:36 Like to me, it’s just, yeah, it’s crazy.
    0:36:37 – A year, I mean, it’s like,
    0:36:40 so this is what acceleration feels like.
    0:36:42 The world is gonna be dramatically different
    0:36:43 in like two years from now.
    0:36:45 I mean, these models are probably gonna be like 50 times smarter,
    0:36:48 at least 20 times smarter than they are now in two years.
    0:36:49 – Crazy, crazy.
    0:36:54 And I mean, like we’ve got companies pumping a half a trillion dollars
    0:36:56 into building bigger and bigger data centers
    0:36:57 over the next few years too.
    0:37:00 – Yeah, it’s like, I think Dario too.
    0:37:01 I’m not sure if it was his blog post or not,
    0:37:03 but maybe on a recent interview,
    0:37:07 he talks about, you know, it’s because whoever gets to ASI first
    0:37:10 may be ahead forever, which is what I’ve also said before.
    0:37:12 It’s like, that’s why America needs to be China.
    0:37:14 Like, because in theory, whoever gets to the point
    0:37:16 where your model is improving itself,
    0:37:17 there’s never the ability for anyone
    0:37:19 to ever catch up with you ever.
    0:37:20 – Theoretically, yeah.
    0:37:22 – Theoretically, like it would make sense, all right?
    0:37:23 Like the model is improving itself.
    0:37:24 How could other models ever catch up
    0:37:26 and let’s say have some huge breakthrough?
    0:37:27 – Well, what if the models get so smart
    0:37:29 that they decide to start working together
    0:37:31 and there’s passing information between each other?
    0:37:32 You know? – Yeah, who knows?
    0:37:33 – I mean, once you get to ASI,
    0:37:36 wouldn’t you think that the smartest thing the models could do
    0:37:39 was decide to actually share information among each other
    0:37:40 so they all get smarter together?
    0:37:42 – Possibly, I mean, like, I mean,
    0:37:43 hopefully they’re still following our directive.
    0:37:45 It’s like, hey, don’t work with the Chinese models.
    0:37:48 You know, it’s like work with the American models, sure.
    0:37:50 – Yeah, yeah, but I feel like once you hit ASI, right?
    0:37:54 Like once you hit the sort of like theoretical concept
    0:37:57 of the singularity, that’s no longer in our hands anymore.
    0:37:58 – Maybe, hopefully that’s not true.
    0:38:00 (both laugh)
    0:38:02 But yeah, I think we’re getting there faster
    0:38:04 than people realize, I mean, they really do.
    0:38:05 – Yeah, yeah.
    0:38:09 Well, anyway, on that note, which could be utopian
    0:38:11 or dystopian, deciding on how you decide
    0:38:12 to take what we just said,
    0:38:14 I think that’s probably a good place to wrap up.
    0:38:16 So if you like staying looped in
    0:38:18 and like hearing deep dive conversations
    0:38:20 about the latest things happening in the AI world
    0:38:23 and you like to get practical use cases
    0:38:24 on how you can actually implement this stuff
    0:38:26 in your life or your own business,
    0:38:28 make sure you subscribe to this podcast.
    0:38:30 We’re available wherever you listen to podcasts.
    0:38:31 We’re also available on YouTube,
    0:38:32 where a lot of the stuff we’re talking about
    0:38:33 we’re showing on screen.
    0:38:36 So make sure that you subscribe and follow along
    0:38:38 and hopefully we’ll see you in the next one.
    0:38:41 (upbeat music)
    0:38:43 (upbeat music)
    0:38:46 (upbeat music)
    0:38:48 (upbeat music)
    0:38:52 (upbeat music)
    0:38:55 (birds chirping)

    Episode 44: How impactful is the debut of China’s AI model, DeepSeek, on the global tech landscape? Matt Wolfe (https://x.com/mreflow) and Nathan Lands (https://x.com/NathanLands) unravel everything you need to know about DeepSeek R1 in this episode, where they also dive deep on how it made waves in the stock market and stirred up conversations across the globe.

    This episode dissects the recent frenzy surrounding DeepSeek R1, breaking down why its cost-effective training method shook the tech industry and led to a dramatic decrease in NVIDIA’s stock price. Matt and Nathan guide you through their firsthand experiences using the model, exploring its biases, and discuss the implications of China’s progress in AI. Plus, they speculate on what this could mean for the future of AI development as other major players strive to keep up.

    Check out The Next Wave YouTube Channel if you want to see Matt and Nathan on screen: https://lnk.to/thenextwavepd

    Show Notes:

    • (00:00) DeepSeek R1: AI Bias Exploration
    • (04:23) Speculation on AI Usage Claims
    • (07:28) Jevons Paradox and AI Demand
    • (10:05) New AI Models from China
    • (14:41) Mismatch Between Hype and Reality
    • (17:57) DeepSeek’s Viral Rise Analysis
    • (19:59) Local DeepSteak R1 Model Test
    • (24:34) Game Design Collaboration Limitations
    • (28:28) Endless Logic Problem Loop
    • (30:35) Weekend AI Innovation Skepticism
    • (32:19) Reinforcement Learning Model Fine-Tuning

    Mentions:

    Get the guide to build your own Custom GPT: https://clickhubspot.com/tnw

    Check Out Matt’s Stuff:

    • Future Tools – https://futuretools.beehiiv.com/

    • Blog – https://www.mattwolfe.com/

    • YouTube- https://www.youtube.com/@mreflow

    Check Out Nathan’s Stuff:

    The Next Wave is a HubSpot Original Podcast // Brought to you by The HubSpot Podcast Network // Production by Darren Clarke // Editing by Ezra Bakker Trupiano

  • #793: How to Calm Your Inner Storm — A Guided Meditation to Tame Restlessness with Zen Master Henry Shukman

    AI transcript
    0:00:04 Hello, boys and girls, ladies and germs. This is Tim Ferriss. Welcome to another episode of
    0:00:09 The Tim Ferriss Show. This episode is a brand new experiment called Meditation Monday. That means,
    0:00:14 in addition to my long-form interviews each week, every Monday, I will be bringing you a short 10
    0:00:19 minute or so meditation, which will help you for the rest of the week. Over this four-episode
    0:00:24 series, you’ll develop a Zen toolkit specifically to help you find greater calm, peace, and effectiveness
    0:00:29 in your daily life. The teacher, Henry Schuchman, has been on my podcast twice before. He is one
    0:00:34 of only a few dozen masters in the world authorized to teach what is called Sambo Zen,
    0:00:38 and I have found this particularly interesting and effective, and now he’ll be your teacher.
    0:00:46 I’ve been using Henry’s app The Way once, often twice a day for the last few months, and it has
    0:00:51 lowered my anxiety more than I thought possible. As a listener of the show, you yourself can get
    0:00:57 30 free sessions by visiting thewayapp.com/tim. If you like what you hear in these meditations,
    0:01:01 which will be valuable in and of themselves, you can get 30 free sessions by going to
    0:01:07 thewayapp.com/tim. And for the time being, please enjoy this Meditation Monday with Henry Schuchman.
    0:01:17 Welcome back to Meditation Monday. Many of us, of course, have difficult emotions at times,
    0:01:26 and meditation might seem to exacerbate them sometimes because we’re, as it were, more exposed
    0:01:31 to them. We haven’t got distractions, other things we can turn to. We’re just sitting still
    0:01:36 and doing nothing, so if a difficult emotion comes up, there’s kind of no way to hide.
    0:01:47 Now, in early Buddhism, these kinds of emotions, things like worry, regret, frustration, craving,
    0:01:55 aversion, or dislike, strong dislike, were viewed actually as hindrances to meditation.
    0:02:02 That they would make us not want to meditate. They’d make it harder to meditate. And I think it’s
    0:02:10 quite a helpful lens to recognize that difficult emotions are a problem, as it were, in meditation,
    0:02:18 in that they will discourage us from doing it. So fortunately, we have tools for being with
    0:02:27 difficult emotion. And actually, what they often lead to is a kind of restlessness. Get me out of
    0:02:34 here, you know, when we’re trying to meditate. So I want to do a sit now that offers a tool for
    0:02:43 working with restlessness and emotions that might be associated with it. So I hope you find this
    0:02:50 helpful. Let’s come into our seated, comfortable position. And just a footnote, if you want to
    0:02:57 recline, you go right ahead. We just want to be comfortable. That’s the main thing. Because when
    0:03:08 we’re comfortable, it’s easier to relax. And when we start relaxing, it’s easier to be still.
    0:03:19 And in some ways, it might be that the most powerful agent in meditation is simply being still.
    0:03:30 That all the lessons and learnings and shifts and transformations that meditation can offer
    0:03:41 simply come from stillness. So let’s give ourselves time to be comfortable,
    0:03:59 to arrive here, to come into being here, into this space where nothing is asked of us.
    0:04:10 Nothing we need to do. We’re really getting to put down the burden of doing.
    0:04:15 All the responsibilities, the to-do lists.
    0:04:26 Leave them outside the door just for now. This is really a time just for you.
    0:04:36 So again, checking that your body is comfortable under a little bit of
    0:04:43 progressive relaxation, letting your shoulders go, letting them sink and settle and letting
    0:04:47 your arms be limp like old rope.
    0:04:54 Letting the face soften.
    0:05:03 And it just sort of hang like a curtain. No tension in it. Let it go.
    0:05:24 Let there be a warmth in the chest, a warmth in the belly, softness in chest, softness in belly.
    0:05:31 Let your hips go. Let your legs relax and your feet.
    0:05:40 So in this space of meditation,
    0:05:50 we’re going to explore how we might allow restlessness if it comes up.
    0:06:01 And I invite you actually to imagine that you are feeling just a little bit of restlessness
    0:06:12 It’s a familiar feeling for pretty much all of us, I think, that enough of this.
    0:06:18 I want to go and do something else or I want to move or get me out of here.
    0:06:26 Now, instead of doing what it says, we’re going to be still.
    0:06:38 And we’re going to see if we can find it, find the restlessness in your body. What actually is it?
    0:06:48 Could it be that it’s just a kind of energy, maybe like a little
    0:07:00 miniature dust devil or something of energy somewhere in the torso, maybe the belly,
    0:07:13 maybe the chest, possibly throat. Can you find some trace of an energy of restlessness
    0:07:19 within your torso?
    0:07:37 Whatever you’re finding, or if you’re not really finding anything,
    0:07:44 we’re going to let things be just as they are.
    0:07:58 We’re going to allow any energy of restlessness, all the absence of it, to be just as it is.
    0:08:09 What if we don’t have to do anything about it?
    0:08:21 What if we have it in us to just let it be there? Let it be here.
    0:08:33 No need to change it, welcome it, allow it,
    0:08:41 let it actually be part of your experience.
    0:08:55 Rest with it.
    0:09:14 If you are tasting restlessness, you can name it in your own mind.
    0:09:21 Restlessness is present, say it to yourself.
    0:09:36 Restlessness is welcome.
    0:09:43 Try saying that to yourself in your own mind.
    0:10:01 It may be that you’re sensing some other emotion that might be uncomfortable.
    0:10:12 If so, see if you can find the sensory correlates of it, the actual sensation
    0:10:18 in probably the chest area, or perhaps the belly, that associates with it.
    0:10:27 And let them be present.
    0:10:40 Let your shoulders be soft, let your flanks be soft,
    0:10:46 let your back be soft.
    0:11:00 And let the whole front of your torso, the front, the skin and dermis of your torso,
    0:11:08 let it also be soft, like a kind of drapery, hanging loose.
    0:11:23 And let the softness in your body allow any discomfort of restlessness or emotion.
    0:11:33 Let the softness welcome any trace of discomfort.
    0:11:41 Let yourself just be with it.
    0:11:53 Being still, being quiet,
    0:12:05 resting with your own heart, your own emotion center.
    0:12:18 And letting it be.
    0:12:37 Yeah, so part of this homecoming, we might say, that meditation can be,
    0:12:43 is also coming back to, you know, our feeling self.
    0:12:52 It’s a beautiful thing, actually, that we feel like many, like all other mammals.
    0:13:00 We have emotions, they’re part of our makeup, and learning to allow them
    0:13:06 is a real form of growth.
    0:13:15 Okay, so let’s come out of this sit, bring movement back into the body.
    0:13:24 You might do an inhale, an exhale, move around any way you feel you’d like to.
    0:13:33 Fantastic, thank you so much for joining me in this little exploration of a perhaps unexpected
    0:13:41 kind of tool that will help us with our difficulties and sort of defuse them
    0:13:49 for our pathway into meditation and along the great journey of meditation.
    0:13:53 Thanks so much. See you next week.

    This episode is part of a new experiment called Meditation Monday. The teacher, Henry Shukman, has been on my podcast twice before. He is one of only a few dozen masters in the world authorized to teach Sanbo Zen, and now, he’ll be your teacher.

    In addition to my long-form interviews each week, every Monday I’ll bring you a short 10-minute or so meditation, which will help you for the rest of the week.

    Over this four-episode series, you’ll develop a Zen toolkit to help you find greater calm, peace, and effectiveness in your daily life.

    Henry’s app, The Way, has changed my life since I first started using it. Unlike other meditation apps, where you’re overwhelmed with a thousand choices, The Way is a clear step-by-step training program guided entirely by Henry. Through a logical progression, you’ll develop real skills that stick with you.

    I’ve been using it daily, often twice a day, and it’s lowered my anxiety more than I thought possible.

    As a listener of my podcast, you can get 30 free sessions by visiting https://thewayapp.com/tim and downloading the app.

    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

  • Do Americans have too much ‘me time?’

    AI transcript
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    0:01:06 – You’ve no doubt heard the phrase
    0:01:09 loneliness epidemic many times.
    0:01:11 But what does it mean to say
    0:01:13 that there’s a loneliness problem?
    0:01:16 More to the point, what does it mean to be lonely?
    0:01:20 At the very least, loneliness implies two things.
    0:01:23 One, that you’re alone.
    0:01:25 And two, that you don’t wanna be.
    0:01:28 That second part is important.
    0:01:32 To feel lonely is to yearn for connection and company.
    0:01:34 If you don’t wanna connect with someone else,
    0:01:38 you’re alone, but you’re not lonely.
    0:01:40 Here’s a question we haven’t really asked
    0:01:43 in these conversations about loneliness.
    0:01:45 Are Americans alone because they don’t have anywhere to go
    0:01:47 or they don’t have anyone to go with?
    0:01:51 Or are they choosing to be alone?
    0:01:53 And if they’re choosing to be alone,
    0:01:56 even when we know that’s not good for us,
    0:01:58 why are they doing this?
    0:02:03 And what does it mean long-term for society?
    0:02:08 I’m Sean Elling, and this is The Great Area.
    0:02:16 Today’s guest is Derek Thompson.
    0:02:18 Derek is a staff writer at The Atlantic
    0:02:20 and the author of a recent essay called
    0:02:23 The Antisocial Century.
    0:02:25 The piece challenges the conventional wisdom
    0:02:26 around loneliness.
    0:02:30 Derek gathers a ton of data, much of it alarming,
    0:02:32 and concludes that we’ve mostly
    0:02:35 misunderstood the situation here.
    0:02:38 It’s not that we’ve become lonely.
    0:02:41 It’s that we’ve started to prefer solitude.
    0:02:43 We’ve become antisocial,
    0:02:45 and that’s a very different kind of problem.
    0:02:48 One, we absolutely have to solve as a country.
    0:02:51 So I invited Derek on the show
    0:02:53 to talk about what he discovered
    0:02:56 and why he thinks self-imposed solitude
    0:02:58 might just be the most important social fact
    0:03:00 of the 21st century in America.
    0:03:16 Derek Thompson, welcome back to the show.
    0:03:17 It’s great to be here.
    0:03:18 Thank you, Sean.
    0:03:20 Everyone’s been saying for years now
    0:03:24 that we have a loneliness epidemic,
    0:03:26 and you think that’s not quite right.
    0:03:29 So tell me what’s actually going on.
    0:03:32 So it’s probably worth defining loneliness.
    0:03:35 Loneliness as the sociologist that I talked to,
    0:03:38 in particular NYU’s Eric Kleinberg,
    0:03:40 is a very healthy thing to feel.
    0:03:43 Loneliness is the felt gap
    0:03:45 between the social connection that you have
    0:03:47 and the social connection that you want.
    0:03:50 And so when I’m home working a lot,
    0:03:51 taking care of my kid,
    0:03:53 not hanging out with friends that’s at my house,
    0:03:55 sometimes I feel lonely,
    0:03:57 and that inspires me to reach out to my friends
    0:03:59 and hang out with them, get a drink.
    0:04:02 But something else, I think,
    0:04:05 is the social crisis of this moment
    0:04:09 and this century for America, and that’s social isolation.
    0:04:13 If you’re spending more and more time alone,
    0:04:15 year after year after year,
    0:04:19 and you are choosing to socially isolate yourself,
    0:04:21 and you’re even, in many cases,
    0:04:23 as I see sometimes happening on TikTok,
    0:04:27 celebrating when your friends cancel plans
    0:04:30 because it means you can add another heaping scoop
    0:04:33 of a lone time on top of the historic amounts
    0:04:35 of a lone time they’re already spending,
    0:04:39 well, my feeling is that’s not loneliness.
    0:04:44 That is a choice to socially isolate more and more,
    0:04:46 month after month, year after year,
    0:04:48 even decade after decade.
    0:04:50 This is not loneliness,
    0:04:52 and the last thing I would say is,
    0:04:56 if you choose to see this moment as a loneliness epidemic,
    0:05:00 you have a research problem, you have an empirical problem,
    0:05:04 because right now, two things are true from the numbers.
    0:05:07 Number one, we spend a historic amount of time alone,
    0:05:10 and number two, it doesn’t seem like for many Americans,
    0:05:14 loneliness is spiking at the same rate
    0:05:16 that social isolation is spiking.
    0:05:20 What we have is not a crisis of loneliness
    0:05:22 as it is broadly understood,
    0:05:25 but actually something much more gnarly,
    0:05:27 something much more toxic,
    0:05:30 and actually something much stranger
    0:05:32 than a mere crisis of loneliness.
    0:05:34 – Well, just so we have a point of reference,
    0:05:36 give me a sobering stat here.
    0:05:41 How much more time are people spending alone,
    0:05:43 relative to how much time we used to spend alone
    0:05:45 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years ago?
    0:05:48 – So between the 1960s and the 1990s,
    0:05:53 Americans were withdrawing from all kinds of associations
    0:05:57 and clubs, this was the thesis of and point
    0:05:59 of Robert Putnam’s book, “Bowling Alone.”
    0:06:01 But in the last 25 years,
    0:06:04 the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been running a survey
    0:06:06 called the American Time Use Survey,
    0:06:07 which asks Americans a bunch of questions
    0:06:09 about how they spend their week.
    0:06:11 How much time do you spend sleeping?
    0:06:13 How much time do you spend eating dinner?
    0:06:14 And they also ask how much time do you spend
    0:06:16 in face-to-face socializing?
    0:06:18 And the amount of time that all Americans spend,
    0:06:21 the average American spends in face-to-face socializing
    0:06:24 is declined by over 20% in the last 25 years.
    0:06:28 For some groups, like black men and young people overall,
    0:06:31 the decline is more like 40%,
    0:06:34 negative 40% face-to-face socializing
    0:06:36 over the last 20, 25 years.
    0:06:40 So that brings us to a point now where there is no period
    0:06:42 in modern historical record,
    0:06:45 going back to the mid-1960s at least,
    0:06:48 and probably going back decades before then,
    0:06:52 that we have spent so much time by ourselves.
    0:06:56 – And how does this break down across class lines?
    0:07:00 Are we seeing the same trends across class lines?
    0:07:02 Or are there noteworthy differences?
    0:07:05 And if there are, why might that be?
    0:07:07 – So what I would say is,
    0:07:09 as a matter of sort of coming to a firm answer
    0:07:12 to this question, is this an income-based phenomenon?
    0:07:16 Is maybe, but because the best data we have,
    0:07:18 it doesn’t have very large sample sizes
    0:07:20 for the richest and poorest Americans,
    0:07:23 it’s hard to say that this is a fact,
    0:07:26 the same way we can say that it’s a fact
    0:07:28 that for all Americans,
    0:07:31 face-to-face socializing is at its lowest point
    0:07:34 in 25 years or maybe 60, 100 years,
    0:07:36 and a lone time is at its highest.
    0:07:37 – Well, I just wanted to ask,
    0:07:39 because we have a tendency to talk about
    0:07:43 upper-class problems as though they are universal problems,
    0:07:46 and this ain’t that, whatever else it is, it’s not that.
    0:07:49 – I think it’s really important to say that,
    0:07:50 you’re exactly right,
    0:07:52 especially I would say in this space,
    0:07:54 in talking about the way we live today,
    0:07:56 the problems of modernity,
    0:07:59 always very difficult to avoid the temptation
    0:08:01 to talk about the upper middle class
    0:08:03 as if they are representative of the entire country.
    0:08:07 So when we talk about the problems of intensive parenting
    0:08:11 or anxiety, college-based anxiety for kids,
    0:08:14 a lot of times those fears are about
    0:08:17 a large part of the country that is not all of the country.
    0:08:19 In this case, however,
    0:08:22 you will find that face-to-face socializing
    0:08:24 is declining for men and for women,
    0:08:26 for literally every age cohort,
    0:08:28 the young and the old,
    0:08:30 for white and black and Hispanic Americans,
    0:08:32 for the bottom quartile, for the top quartile,
    0:08:35 for married Americans, for unmarried Americans,
    0:08:38 for college graduates, for non-high school graduates,
    0:08:42 this is something that is absolutely happening to everybody.
    0:08:44 And so therefore, if you want to understand it,
    0:08:49 I think we need to look for causes
    0:08:52 that are more universal than income inequality.
    0:08:56 – So why was the first half of the 20th century so social?
    0:08:59 What changed around the ’70s?
    0:09:01 And why is the answer clearly neoliberalism?
    0:09:03 – And why is the answer clearly
    0:09:05 the election of Ronald Reagan?
    0:09:08 So the simplest way to summarize what happened
    0:09:11 is that there was a revolution of individualism
    0:09:13 that struck this country
    0:09:15 and affected it at many different levels,
    0:09:18 at the political economy level, at the social level,
    0:09:23 and it ended, as you said, a very social century.
    0:09:28 Between the 1910s and the 1950s and early ’60s, certainly,
    0:09:33 just about every measure of sociality in this country
    0:09:35 was rising.
    0:09:39 The marriage rate spiked in the middle of the 20th century.
    0:09:43 Fertility rates spiked in an incredibly unusual way.
    0:09:46 You had a surge in unionization rates.
    0:09:50 You had more associations created, more clubs created.
    0:09:53 So by so many different measures,
    0:09:57 socializing was surging in the middle of the 20th century,
    0:09:58 and that ended.
    0:10:02 And I think that among many, many things,
    0:10:03 two things that ended it
    0:10:07 were the two most important technologies of the 20th century.
    0:10:11 The first was the car that allowed us to privatize our lives
    0:10:12 and move away from other people.
    0:10:14 And the second was the television,
    0:10:17 which allowed us to privatize our leisure time
    0:10:19 so that we could spend it alone looking at a screen
    0:10:22 and not necessarily spend it throwing a dinner party.
    0:10:24 – Well, you talk to a psychologist,
    0:10:26 you talk to a sociologist.
    0:10:29 Why do we choose solitude?
    0:10:32 If we know it, it won’t make us happy in the long term.
    0:10:33 And I say we know not just in the sense
    0:10:35 that there’s a lot of research telling us so,
    0:10:39 but we all pretty much know this from lived experience,
    0:10:42 as tempting as it is to stay home and Netflix or whatever.
    0:10:45 Most of the time we all feel better
    0:10:47 once we actually get out of the house
    0:10:49 and spend time with friends.
    0:10:53 So what’s behind this pathological behavior?
    0:10:55 – I think it’s a very good and a very complex question.
    0:10:57 And the first thing I’d say is that
    0:11:01 we do things that we know aren’t good for us all the time.
    0:11:02 You know, this is the whole problem with nutrition,
    0:11:03 is that you have people coming up
    0:11:05 with ever more complicated ways
    0:11:06 of explaining what’s good for us,
    0:11:09 but you inject anybody in the world with truth serum
    0:11:11 and you say, you know, is the Twixbar good for you?
    0:11:13 Is going to the gym good for you?
    0:11:15 Is celery good for you?
    0:11:17 Everyone knows the answers to these questions,
    0:11:21 so the problem is actualizing the answers in your behavior
    0:11:23 because we’re cross-purpose machines
    0:11:25 and the relevant cross-pressure
    0:11:30 is that we are dopamine-seeking creatures
    0:11:34 and we’re also interpersonal creatures, we’re social animals.
    0:11:36 And sometimes those drives
    0:11:39 are totally a cross-purpose with each other
    0:11:42 that seeking dopamine in the most efficient way
    0:11:45 necessarily means not spending time around people, right?
    0:11:48 Like if I were trying, for example,
    0:11:51 to simply solicit as much dopamine as possible
    0:11:55 and be surrounded by maximal stimulative novelty
    0:11:57 as much as possible on a minute-to-minute basis,
    0:11:59 what would I do?
    0:12:01 I would never leave my house.
    0:12:03 Our homes are so much more comfortable than they used to be.
    0:12:05 They’re so much more diverting than they used to be
    0:12:07 with their television sets and their smartphones
    0:12:12 and their speaker systems and their streaming and their cable.
    0:12:15 There’s so much that is interesting that we can do
    0:12:17 just staying at home.
    0:12:19 And so I think many people just do.
    0:12:21 Now, I’m not here to say the television’s evil.
    0:12:25 I am trying to say that the invention of television
    0:12:29 was akin to the discovery of this element of human nature
    0:12:31 that fundamentally wants to turn ourselves
    0:12:33 into passive audience members.
    0:12:35 And so we invented this technology
    0:12:38 that seemed to elicit from us this aspect of ourselves
    0:12:41 that just wants to lie back, open our eyes
    0:12:45 and be awash in novel visual stimuli.
    0:12:48 And I think that, unfortunately, when you ask,
    0:12:49 why don’t we just leave the house?
    0:12:51 Why don’t we just hang out with people more?
    0:12:54 I think that we are complex creatures
    0:12:56 and that this is a really relevant cross-purpose for us.
    0:12:59 – Well, I mean, having an economy increasingly built
    0:13:03 on personal convenience, it’s just such a huge part of this.
    0:13:04 You know what I mean?
    0:13:06 From streaming services to online shopping,
    0:13:09 I mean, everything is curated, everything’s on demand,
    0:13:10 everything is easy.
    0:13:12 If you have a phone and Wi-Fi,
    0:13:15 you don’t have to leave the house for damn near anything.
    0:13:17 I mean, that kind of economic order
    0:13:20 has to condition us psychologically
    0:13:23 to want to avoid the messiness
    0:13:27 and the unpredictability of the actual world.
    0:13:28 – It’s a beautifully made point
    0:13:31 and I wanna be really, really clear about my reaction to it.
    0:13:33 The on-demand economy is good.
    0:13:35 It’s good for busy families.
    0:13:37 It’s good for the disabled.
    0:13:38 It’s good for the elderly.
    0:13:41 It’s good for the chronically sick.
    0:13:45 The on-demand economy is an absolute economic mitzvah.
    0:13:50 But life is complicated and progress has trade-offs.
    0:13:52 The industrial revolution was good.
    0:13:57 It allowed us to be rich enough to take a world
    0:14:00 where the average person had a 50/50 shot
    0:14:03 of living to see their 16th birthday
    0:14:06 into a world where the vast majority of people
    0:14:09 have a very, very good chance to turn 16.
    0:14:12 But we also know that the industrialized economy
    0:14:14 had costs and trade-offs.
    0:14:17 One of them being that it took us a while
    0:14:21 to recognize that industrialization was coughing up
    0:14:24 all of this pollution that was choking the biosphere.
    0:14:26 It took us a while to realize the cost of progress.
    0:14:29 And it took us a while to recognize
    0:14:33 what the cost of this economic mitzvah was.
    0:14:35 And in the same way, I think a world of entertainment
    0:14:38 and a world of on-demand convenience
    0:14:41 is wonderful in many, many ways.
    0:14:43 It just takes us a while to figure out
    0:14:45 what the costs of that progress are.
    0:14:46 And what I’m trying to do in this piece
    0:14:49 is to hold up a mirror to Americans’ behavior
    0:14:51 and say, this is the receipt.
    0:14:53 What you bought is an economy
    0:14:57 of extraordinary dopaminergic reward systems.
    0:14:59 And it’s helped your life in many ways
    0:15:01 and made life more fun in many ways.
    0:15:04 But here’s part of the cost.
    0:15:07 Here’s the receipt that you haven’t seen
    0:15:09 for the progress that you’ve purchased.
    0:15:11 And it’s not so much to say
    0:15:13 that I want to move progress back.
    0:15:15 I think we just need to find a way to adapt to it.
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    0:19:05 (upbeat music)
    0:19:26 – Did you ever see the Adam Curtis documentary,
    0:19:27 The Century of Self?
    0:19:31 He’s really about the birth of modern public relations
    0:19:32 and consumer society.
    0:19:35 And The Century of Self, the way he uses it
    0:19:38 isn’t quite solitude or anti-social,
    0:19:39 but it’s part of the same story.
    0:19:44 I mean, there’s this shift from a needs-based culture
    0:19:46 to a desires-based culture.
    0:19:49 And more of life becomes about
    0:19:51 eliminating inconvenience and friction.
    0:19:53 And that ultimately leads to eliminating other people
    0:19:57 because other people involve inconvenience and friction.
    0:20:00 – It reminds me of what the University of Chicago
    0:20:02 psychologist Nick Epley said to me.
    0:20:06 And he talks about the ways in which
    0:20:09 there’s an expectations gap that we suffer from
    0:20:11 or several expectations gaps
    0:20:14 that we suffer from in our social relations.
    0:20:19 And one is that often we withhold ourselves
    0:20:23 from talking to strangers
    0:20:25 or asking people to hang out with us
    0:20:28 because we’re afraid that we might be boring to them.
    0:20:31 We’re afraid that we might disappoint ourselves
    0:20:33 by being in that conversation
    0:20:36 and seeing other people react negatively to us.
    0:20:39 And he points out that a lot of human interaction
    0:20:41 is instead governed by a principle of reciprocity
    0:20:43 such that when you’re nice to someone
    0:20:44 they tend to be nice back.
    0:20:47 When you initiate a little bit of conversation
    0:20:49 they tend to talk back to you.
    0:20:53 And so there’s an expectations gap between the withdrawal
    0:20:56 that we sometimes conduct ourselves with
    0:20:58 and the social interaction
    0:21:00 that would actually make us much more happy
    0:21:02 in the next 15 minutes of life.
    0:21:05 And the second gap that he talks about
    0:21:06 that I think is really profound
    0:21:10 is an expectations gap about depth of conversation.
    0:21:13 And I think that people,
    0:21:15 they wanna be asked deep questions.
    0:21:18 They like talking about things that matter to them.
    0:21:23 And often we’re afraid of initiating
    0:21:24 deep conversations with people.
    0:21:28 So I think that one of these just really wonderful points
    0:21:33 is that despite the fact that we’re social animals
    0:21:38 we live under this patina of illusion about asociality
    0:21:43 where we withhold deep and meaningful conversations
    0:21:45 both from ourselves and the people around us
    0:21:47 because we have false expectations
    0:21:48 about how those conversations are going to go.
    0:21:51 – Well, speaking of connections and depth of connections
    0:21:55 or lack thereof, it leads to I think a very important part
    0:21:57 of the piece where you’re talking about these
    0:22:03 three rings of connection, inner, middle and outer
    0:22:08 and how this middle ring, which is key to social cohesion,
    0:22:09 that’s disappearing.
    0:22:10 Can you say a bit about that?
    0:22:13 ‘Cause it seems really, really important.
    0:22:15 – So Mark Dunkelman, who’s an author and a researcher
    0:22:18 at Brown University, when I called him
    0:22:20 to talk about this piece,
    0:22:23 what he said was that ironically, our digital devices
    0:22:26 which might seem like they alienate us from each other
    0:22:28 actually make some relationships much closer
    0:22:30 than they used to be.
    0:22:33 For example, at the inner ring of family,
    0:22:36 it is possible for families to be connected
    0:22:37 throughout the day, throughout the week
    0:22:40 in ways that were totally impossible 50 years ago.
    0:22:44 I mean, the amount of times per day that I text my wife
    0:22:47 or my wife texts me is just enormous.
    0:22:51 We’re just in constant contact and constant communication.
    0:22:54 He said at one point, if my daughter buys a Butterfinger
    0:22:56 from the CVS, I get a notification on my phone
    0:22:59 which intensive parenting, take it or leave it,
    0:23:01 like at least it’s a connection
    0:23:04 that you could not imagine happening 30 years ago.
    0:23:08 And then so at the inner ring, you have lots of intimacy.
    0:23:11 And then there’s an outer ring that he describes,
    0:23:13 which is you can sort of think of it as tribe,
    0:23:15 people who share your affinities.
    0:23:17 So if you’re a Cincinnati Bengals fan
    0:23:20 or if you’re a New Orleans Saints fan, for example,
    0:23:25 for the NFL, you can follow the world of Saints fans
    0:23:28 and be in touch with them in a way
    0:23:31 that was absolutely impossible 40 years ago.
    0:23:33 Mark talks about the fact that he lives in Providence,
    0:23:35 Rhode Island and he’s texting the beat reporters
    0:23:38 from Cincinnati, Ohio about how the Bengals
    0:23:39 should change their offense.
    0:23:42 I mean, that is a connection that you could just never have
    0:23:45 before the rise of group chats and acts and things like that.
    0:23:47 So what he says is you sort of in a weird way
    0:23:50 have this inner ring of family and friends
    0:23:52 which can be strengthened by digital communications.
    0:23:54 And this outer ring of tribe,
    0:23:56 which can be strengthened by digital communications
    0:23:59 because it puts us in touch with the crowd,
    0:24:01 but there’s an inner ring that atrophies
    0:24:03 and that inner ring he calls the village.
    0:24:05 And the village is the people that live next to us.
    0:24:06 It’s the people that we live around.
    0:24:09 It’s the people that we might see at grocery stores
    0:24:10 or form clubs with.
    0:24:11 It’s people we’re not related to
    0:24:14 and that don’t necessarily share our opinion
    0:24:15 about everything in the world.
    0:24:16 And that’s what makes it so important
    0:24:19 because if the inner ring teaches us love
    0:24:23 and the outer ring teaches us loyalty or ideology,
    0:24:25 it’s that middle ring that teaches us tolerance.
    0:24:28 It requires tolerance to be in the world
    0:24:30 of people you’re not related to
    0:24:32 who might disagree with you about things.
    0:24:34 And in a world with that middle ring is atrophying,
    0:24:36 you would predict if you knew nothing else about the world
    0:24:39 that our politics would become a lot less tolerant.
    0:24:41 There’s a section in the piece titled
    0:24:44 This Is Your Politics on Solitude.
    0:24:49 And you make the case that this drift towards solitude
    0:24:52 is really rewiring our civic and political identity.
    0:24:54 Is this how it’s rewiring it?
    0:24:59 That it’s basically teaching us to love the people we love
    0:25:01 perhaps even more,
    0:25:04 but also hate the people we don’t really know?
    0:25:05 – I think it might be that.
    0:25:07 You know, the two implications that I draw from the piece
    0:25:09 are one that you would expect
    0:25:13 the political winners of an age of solitude
    0:25:16 to exist in that sort of all tribe, no village level.
    0:25:19 They’d be great at stoking out animosity
    0:25:22 and they would be almost celebratory
    0:25:23 of their lack of tolerance.
    0:25:25 And certainly I think both those things
    0:25:27 describe Donald Trump.
    0:25:29 The second is that the conventional wisdom used to be
    0:25:31 that all politics is local,
    0:25:33 that people vote based on issues
    0:25:34 that are local to the village.
    0:25:37 But in a world with a village atrophies
    0:25:41 and a more global sense of reality concretizes,
    0:25:45 it’s not that all politics is local,
    0:25:49 it’s that all politics is focal with an F.
    0:25:52 All politics is what national media gets us to focus on
    0:25:55 whether or not it’s relevant to our local interests.
    0:25:58 So one example from the right,
    0:26:00 and then maybe one example from the left.
    0:26:00 Some of them from the right,
    0:26:02 and this anecdote didn’t make it in the final piece,
    0:26:04 but are the Russell Hawks child,
    0:26:08 who’s a sociologist in California just published a book
    0:26:10 and I was emailing her about that book
    0:26:11 as I was writing this piece.
    0:26:16 And she pointed out that there are folks in rural Kentucky
    0:26:18 where she was doing some of her ethnography
    0:26:20 where you walk into their trailer homes,
    0:26:22 you walk into their houses and the television
    0:26:24 is just the biggest piece of furniture in the house.
    0:26:28 And for them, the most important issue in the 2024 election
    0:26:30 was the rise of illegal immigration
    0:26:33 and the hordes of migrants crossing the border.
    0:26:35 This was incredibly alarming to them.
    0:26:38 And you look at these census reports of rural Kentucky
    0:26:39 and these are some of the places
    0:26:44 with the smallest share of immigrants in the country.
    0:26:47 So in a world where all politics is local,
    0:26:51 rural Kentucky does not care about immigration politics
    0:26:54 at all, but in a world where all politics is focal,
    0:26:56 they’re paying attention to the same news stories
    0:26:59 that a conservative living in downtown Chicago
    0:27:02 or New York or San Francisco is paying attention to.
    0:27:04 And that struck me as very interesting.
    0:27:06 And the point that I made about the left
    0:27:08 which got me into trouble among sunk people
    0:27:11 is that I think that progressives
    0:27:14 have comforted themselves with the understanding
    0:27:18 that Trump is a kind of political alien
    0:27:23 who is inexplicable to anyone who shares progressive values.
    0:27:26 But it’s led them to simply not understand Trump
    0:27:29 as a political phenomenon in a way
    0:27:30 that I think has hurt the left
    0:27:33 by not allowing them to take seriously
    0:27:34 some of the values that underlie
    0:27:37 this incredibly successful right populist movement.
    0:27:40 The left would be better at understanding itself
    0:27:43 which is to say the country that it lives in
    0:27:47 if we spent more time around other people
    0:27:49 who lived in our so-called village.
    0:27:50 – I never thought of the village
    0:27:52 as a moderating mechanism in that way,
    0:27:54 but it makes all the sense in the world.
    0:27:58 The lack of engagement, the lack of understanding
    0:28:01 that has been brewing because of this disconnection
    0:28:05 has just been toxic to our politics.
    0:28:08 And I don’t know, I’m just whining out loud here.
    0:28:11 – No, I accept your whining in the spirit
    0:28:12 in which it’s intended, I think.
    0:28:16 I’m not particularly optimistic about
    0:28:21 Americans agreeing with each other.
    0:28:23 And one thing that I don’t want to happen
    0:28:25 and that I can see happening
    0:28:29 is a world where people fall so out of touch
    0:28:31 with where they live and the issues
    0:28:35 that are material to their communities
    0:28:37 that they vote for people that are giving them something
    0:28:40 that’s bad for them and bad for their neighbors
    0:28:43 who agree and disagree with whoever’s in the White House.
    0:28:46 So I think there are material consequences to a world
    0:28:49 where voters are fundamentally disconnected
    0:28:51 from their local material realities.
    0:28:56 How does the antisocial turn, especially among men,
    0:28:59 lead to what you call chaos politics?
    0:29:03 I think even use the phrase a grotesque style of politics.
    0:29:06 – Yeah, it’s a term of art from a Danish researcher,
    0:29:08 a Danish political scientist named Michael Bank Peterson
    0:29:10 called Need for Chaos.
    0:29:12 And he’s done a series of studies
    0:29:14 with some of his co-researchers
    0:29:15 and they’ve essentially felt
    0:29:16 that there’s a certain demographic
    0:29:21 that responds very positively to conspiracy theories
    0:29:25 about any establishment politician left or right.
    0:29:28 And they tend to agree with statements like,
    0:29:30 I don’t believe in the political process,
    0:29:32 I just want to see everything burned down.
    0:29:33 And he calls them Need for Chaos
    0:29:37 because his theory is that this is a cohort of the electorate
    0:29:40 that is essentially given up on institutions
    0:29:41 and establishment processes.
    0:29:45 And they see politics at a distance
    0:29:48 as a kind of, as a piece of entertainment
    0:29:51 where the most destruction visited
    0:29:53 on existing institutions, the better.
    0:29:57 And while certainly it sounds like this movement
    0:29:59 would lean far right, there are elements of the left
    0:30:02 that he sees associated with it as well.
    0:30:05 And what he found and the reason that I included
    0:30:08 his findings in my piece is that one of the things
    0:30:10 that correlates most highly with Need for Chaos
    0:30:13 is self-described self-isolation.
    0:30:15 And he says, these people aren’t seeking out friendships
    0:30:19 the way that someone might if they were lonely
    0:30:22 in a typical way, that is seeking out a friend
    0:30:24 because you feel that gap between felt
    0:30:26 and desired social connection.
    0:30:31 Rather, they take stock of their own social isolation
    0:30:34 and they seek to remedy it by going online
    0:30:36 and seeking power in some way,
    0:30:40 typically by joining some online horde
    0:30:42 trying to tear down some establishment
    0:30:45 or criticize some institution.
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    0:33:07 (upbeat music)
    0:33:20 – So what is a different pass we can go down at this point?
    0:33:22 I mean, if the antisocial trend continues,
    0:33:25 where does that leave us?
    0:33:30 If we course correct, what might that look like?
    0:33:35 – So should we do gate to hell first,
    0:33:38 then gate to heaven so we can end in a happy note?
    0:33:40 – Yeah, let’s lead with gate to hell.
    0:33:41 – Okay, good.
    0:33:47 I can’t imagine a world where artificial intelligence
    0:33:49 continues to advance at the rate it’s advancing
    0:33:53 and it not meaningfully inflecting this space.
    0:33:53 – How so?
    0:33:57 – We already see that if there was a big article
    0:33:58 in the New York Times just a few days ago
    0:34:01 about people falling in love with chat GPT
    0:34:03 and having deep personal relationships
    0:34:07 with a genitive AI software
    0:34:09 whose guts live in some data center
    0:34:12 in the Dallas quarter of Virginia.
    0:34:15 That’s weird, but it’s gonna get less weird
    0:34:17 because it’s become more common.
    0:34:20 Jason Fagone, who’s a journalist who I spoke to
    0:34:23 is writing a book about people’s relationship
    0:34:26 with AI companions and the stories that he told me,
    0:34:27 some of which I reported in the piece
    0:34:28 and some of which were off the record
    0:34:30 were just absolutely extraordinary.
    0:34:33 I mean, mothers with families married to a man
    0:34:37 but who feels bisexual and has a engaged emotional
    0:34:41 relationship with an AI that identifies as a woman.
    0:34:46 Men who having lost a girlfriend or fiance
    0:34:50 creating avatars of their lost loves out of silicon
    0:34:55 and having ongoing relationships with chat GPT
    0:34:59 or with other AI companions that essentially mimic
    0:35:03 the emotional life of their ex.
    0:35:04 This is all gonna get more common
    0:35:05 and it’s all gonna get weirder
    0:35:07 because the technology is going to improve.
    0:35:10 And also because these technologies
    0:35:12 are gonna become more multimodal,
    0:35:14 which is I guess maybe just a fancy way of saying
    0:35:16 they’re gonna get better at talking to us,
    0:35:18 literally talking to us and not just texting us back.
    0:35:20 And in some ways people are gonna find
    0:35:22 that silicon-based friendships and relationships
    0:35:25 are just richer than carbon-based relationships
    0:35:26 to put things so much frequently.
    0:35:30 So I think this is coming and I think we need to see
    0:35:33 it clearly for the threat that it could have
    0:35:35 to the way that humans deal with each other
    0:35:37 in the physical world.
    0:35:40 – You know, I have to say, I think this is where some
    0:35:44 of those old curmudgeonly cultural critics
    0:35:46 like Christopher Lash, you know,
    0:35:48 who famously wrote the culture of narcissism
    0:35:53 are a little vindicated as you point out in the article,
    0:35:56 you know, like one of the reasons we’re so prepared
    0:35:59 for chatbot friendships is that we have come
    0:36:02 to expect different things from our relationships.
    0:36:07 And what a lot of us really want is a set of feelings.
    0:36:09 We want validation, we want sympathy,
    0:36:11 we want someone or something to make us feel
    0:36:13 a certain way about ourselves.
    0:36:16 That’s about self fulfillment.
    0:36:21 That is kind of narcissism and it’s kind of where we are.
    0:36:27 – Yeah, I mean, you know, this is maybe where we dust us
    0:36:30 some of your favorite existentialist writers
    0:36:32 and, you know, think about like what,
    0:36:35 what, like phenomenologically,
    0:36:38 what is friendship for the most part?
    0:36:41 It’s a lot of spending time with people
    0:36:44 in the physical world, hopefully,
    0:36:48 but for a lot of people, it’s phone calls and it’s texts.
    0:36:50 And it’s the feeling of, hey, I’m having an issue with work
    0:36:52 or hey, I’m having an issue with my kid
    0:36:54 or I’m having an issue with my relationship.
    0:36:55 Hey, man, can we just like talk on the phone?
    0:36:57 Can I just give you a call?
    0:36:58 Can you just respond to a couple of texts
    0:37:01 while we both watch the national championship game at home?
    0:37:02 What’s happening there?
    0:37:05 You’re picking up a piece of hardware
    0:37:07 and you’re holding it to your ear
    0:37:09 or you’re holding it in your palm
    0:37:13 and you’re having a voice-based or text-based conversation
    0:37:15 with an entity who is not there,
    0:37:20 but an entity within which you entrust with love
    0:37:24 and a host of complex feelings
    0:37:27 that make it so that you want to spend time
    0:37:32 with someone who is physically a ghost to you.
    0:37:35 Well, like, you’re just talking to someone who isn’t there,
    0:37:38 that you’ve decided to put trust in.
    0:37:42 What’s phenomenologically so different than it being an AI?
    0:37:44 – Hell, I probably have half a dozen friendships now
    0:37:48 that exist solely through the exchange of funny memes
    0:37:49 – Right. – on Instagram.
    0:37:51 – And my point isn’t that my best friend
    0:37:54 or your best friend is no different than an AI.
    0:37:58 I want people to think capaciously
    0:38:03 about the ways in which relationships with AI
    0:38:06 won’t be weird to lots of people.
    0:38:08 It’s weird to me.
    0:38:10 I have no relationship with an artificial intelligence.
    0:38:11 I’d be surprised if you did.
    0:38:13 I’d certainly be surprised if my wife did,
    0:38:17 but I don’t think that many people growing up in an age,
    0:38:18 especially young people,
    0:38:20 who, by the way, one of the first points made in the show,
    0:38:23 spent a historic amount of time alone on their couches,
    0:38:26 interacting with the world through their smartphone screen,
    0:38:29 is it really going to be so strange for them
    0:38:33 to have friends at school and friends on their phone?
    0:38:36 I just don’t think it takes an enormous amount of imagination
    0:38:37 to see how this is coming.
    0:38:39 – Yeah, and I should say, I don’t think people today
    0:38:42 are any more inherently narcissistic or self-involved
    0:38:44 than people were really at any other point,
    0:38:47 which is we have built a world optimized
    0:38:48 to cater to these sorts of impulses.
    0:38:50 – Oh, yeah, no, we’re no different.
    0:38:51 I mean, biologically, how can we be different
    0:38:54 than our grandfather’s, grandfather’s,
    0:38:56 grandfather’s, grandfather.
    0:38:57 We’re not.
    0:38:58 Nothing’s changed about human biology.
    0:39:01 Nothing’s changed about human biochemistry or very little.
    0:39:03 Very little’s changed about human psychology.
    0:39:05 We’re different because of technology,
    0:39:07 and technology of different times
    0:39:09 elicits different aspects of our personalities
    0:39:12 because we’re incredibly cross-purposed.
    0:39:18 We are designed to replicate our genome through history,
    0:39:19 but that’s not all.
    0:39:22 We’re designed to seek novel stimuli
    0:39:24 and also designed to seek familiarity
    0:39:26 and designed to seek safety and designed to seek adventure.
    0:39:28 We’re so, so complex.
    0:39:30 And we just live in a world right now
    0:39:31 where I want people to recognize
    0:39:35 just how much intelligence and treasure and talent
    0:39:37 has been devoted to the job
    0:39:40 of keeping us stimulated inside of our homes.
    0:39:42 And what if we actually confronted
    0:39:44 the costs of that world?
    0:39:45 – When I asked you earlier
    0:39:47 about the different ways forward,
    0:39:51 you gave me the vision for the road to the gates to hell.
    0:39:53 You didn’t give me the vision
    0:39:55 of the path to the gates of heaven.
    0:40:00 What’s the utopian optimistic sunny scenario?
    0:40:05 – So the difference between science and culture
    0:40:07 is that science tends to move linearly
    0:40:10 and culture is a cycle.
    0:40:11 Culture goes up and down.
    0:40:13 Culture is backlash.
    0:40:15 Culture is not just one thing accumulating
    0:40:16 over and over and over again.
    0:40:17 It’s backlash.
    0:40:20 And a proper understanding of the antisocial century,
    0:40:23 I think, will inspire its own backlash.
    0:40:25 And we’ve backlashed before.
    0:40:30 The late 19th century was a highly individualistic time.
    0:40:34 And around the progressive era of the early 20th century,
    0:40:37 up until the middle of the 1900s,
    0:40:40 we had a social revolution in this country
    0:40:43 that was inspired by religion and the social gospel,
    0:40:45 that was inspired by a change of political economy,
    0:40:48 the New Deal and the rise of collectivism,
    0:40:52 and was reinforced by everything from behavior
    0:40:55 and habits to technology.
    0:40:59 It was a physical time, a time of physical togetherness.
    0:41:00 And we can have it again.
    0:41:02 People need to make new choices with their lives.
    0:41:04 And those new choices need to be inspired
    0:41:06 by a clear understanding of what we’ve done to ourselves
    0:41:07 in the social century.
    0:41:09 That year after year of being alone
    0:41:10 is unacceptable.
    0:41:14 And we can make choices as small as,
    0:41:16 I’m gonna call my friend when I feel like I miss them.
    0:41:18 I’m gonna spend more time outside of my house.
    0:41:22 I’m gonna go out every single weekend absolutely for sure
    0:41:25 to make sure that I prioritize a Friday or Saturday hangout.
    0:41:27 The people who are in my life that I text
    0:41:29 but don’t see physically,
    0:41:31 I’m gonna make a point to see them.
    0:41:34 I think that behaviors can cascade
    0:41:36 and they can create norms.
    0:41:40 And I think norms can cascade and they can create movements.
    0:41:41 And this is a disease.
    0:41:44 The anti-social century is a disease.
    0:41:47 The cure is free and is well-known.
    0:41:49 And that makes me optimistic.
    0:41:53 – Is all of what you just said personally aspirational
    0:41:56 or are you becoming the change you wanna see in the world?
    0:41:58 Derek, after having thought this through so deeply
    0:42:00 and reported this out,
    0:42:03 are you changing the decisions you make day to day?
    0:42:07 Are you out in the world engaging with more people?
    0:42:08 – A thousand percent.
    0:42:09 I’m an introvert.
    0:42:11 I’m a couch potato, I’m a bookworm.
    0:42:15 I love to stay home and read and think about things.
    0:42:20 And writing this piece was a reckoning for my own behavior
    0:42:25 and the ways that my own hour-to-hour
    0:42:30 minute-to-minute preferences were affecting my life
    0:42:31 and affecting my happiness.
    0:42:34 As Nick Epley says,
    0:42:36 you have a great conversation for 15 minutes
    0:42:38 rather than be alone.
    0:42:39 That doesn’t change your life.
    0:42:42 It just changes the next 15 minutes.
    0:42:46 But life is just one 15 minute block of time after another.
    0:42:47 And the way we spend our minutes
    0:42:49 is the way we spend our life.
    0:42:54 And that understanding has affected me really deeply.
    0:42:58 And I’m thinking so much more about how I spend more time
    0:43:02 around people and how I reach out to people more.
    0:43:04 That’s such a beautiful place to end.
    0:43:05 We love your work around here.
    0:43:07 So thanks for coming back on the show, man.
    0:43:08 – Thank you, man.
    0:43:09 Total pleasure to be here.
    0:43:12 – All right.
    0:43:13 I hope you enjoyed this episode.
    0:43:16 I always love talking to Derek.
    0:43:18 As always, we wanna know what you think.
    0:43:23 So drop us the line at the gray area at vox.com and tell us.
    0:43:25 And if you can spare just another few minutes,
    0:43:27 please rate and review the podcast.
    0:43:30 That stuff really helps our show grow.
    0:43:33 (upbeat music)
    0:43:37 This episode was produced by Beth Morrissey,
    0:43:41 edited by Jorge Just, engineered by Christian Ayala,
    0:43:44 fact-checked by Anouk Dousseau,
    0:43:46 and Alex Overington wrote our theme music.
    0:43:49 New episodes of The Gray Area drop on Mondays.
    0:43:50 Listen and subscribe.
    0:43:53 This show is part of Vox.
    0:43:55 Support Vox’s journalism by joining
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    0:44:00 Go to vox.com/members to sign up.
    0:44:03 And if you decide to sign up because of this show,
    0:44:04 let us know.
    0:44:06 (upbeat music)
    0:44:09 (upbeat music)
    0:44:11 (upbeat music)
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    0:44:17 (upbeat music)
    0:44:20 (gentle music)
    0:44:30 [BLANK_AUDIO]

    Americans are spending an historic amount of time alone, a phenomenon that is often referred to as an “epidemic of loneliness.”

    But are we actually lonely? Or do we prefer being by ourselves? And if we do, what does that mean for us and our society?

    Today’s guest is journalist Derek Thompson, who, in a recent essay for the Atlantic, challenges the conventional wisdom around loneliness. He argues that Americans prefer solitude, and that preference presents a wholly different kind of challenge for the country.

    Derek and Sean discuss the far-reaching effects of America’s antisocial behavior, including what it means for our society, our politics, and our future.

    Host: Sean Illing (@SeanIlling)

    Guest: Derek Thompson, staff writer, The Atlantic

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